{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":8,"Date":"2019-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n900 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2019\n\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALVIN'S CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE\nHAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, AND A 1057 UTC SSMI\nOVERPASS SHOWED A CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE MID-LEVEL\nCENTER OF THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER, THE INFRARED\nPRESENTATION OF ALVIN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST\nADVISORY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO UNCHANGED. THE\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 50 KT, IN DEFERENCE TO ASCAT\nDATA FROM LATE LAST NIGHT.\n\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS (PRIMARILY THE HWRF, HMON, AND GFS) CONTINUE TO\nINDICATE THAT ALVIN COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\nBEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE NORTH. ONCE THE TROPICAL\nSTORM REACHES THOSE WATERS IN A DAY OR SO, IT SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN,\nLIKELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AROUND OR JUST AFTER 48 H. THE NHC\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE THE\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\nIT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SMALL SIZE OF ALVIN COULD MAKE IT\nSUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT-TERM SWINGS OF INTENSITY, UP OR DOWN, AND ONCE\nWEAKENING BEGINS IT COULD OCCUR EVEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\nINDICATED.\n\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, BUT\nIS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12 KT,\nAND ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR\nWESTWARD AT A SIMILAR FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\nAFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT\nWEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH\nBEFORE IT DISSIPATES ENTIRELY. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\nHCCA AND TVCN AIDS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 15.8N 113.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 16.9N 114.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 20.5N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":9,"Date":"2019-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n300 PM MDT THU JUN 27 2019\n\nA PAIR OF TIMELY ASCAT PASSES JUST BEFORE 1800 UTC INDICATE THAT\nALVIN HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE. MULTIPLE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS\nWERE PRESENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE IN BOTH\nPASSES. THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED TO\n55 KT SINCE THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT IS LIKELY UNDERSAMPLING THE\nSTRONGEST WINDS OF THIS SMALL TROPICAL STORM.\n\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE THAT ALVIN HAS REACHED ITS\nPEAK INTENSITY, HOWEVER, THE HWRF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT ALVIN COULD\nSTILL SQUEAK OUT A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 H\nOR SO. WHILE I CAN'T RULE OUT THAT ALVIN COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER\nTONIGHT, ITS WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY CLOSING SOON. THE\nCYCLONE'S INFRARED CLOUD SIGNATURE HAS ALREADY TAKEN ON A SHEAR\nPATTERN, AND GFS- AND ECMWF-BASED SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE\nSHEAR SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 H. FURTHERMORE,\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS. NEARLY ALL\nOF THE MODELS SHOW ALVIN DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\nABOUT 48 H AND DISSIPATING SOON THEREAFTER, AND THE NHC FORECAST\nREFLECTS THIS.\n\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF ALVIN IS STILL 300/12 KT. NO CHANGES OF\nSIGNIFICANCE WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO\nCLOSELY FOLLOW HCCA AND TVCN. ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL\nHEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO, BEFORE GRADUALLY TURNING\nWESTWARD AS IT DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE WEEKEND.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 16.6N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 17.7N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 20.3N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 20.9N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alvin","Adv":10,"Date":"2019-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nHURRICANE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2019\n \nSOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, ALVIN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE THIS\nEVENING.  THE DIMINUTIVE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING A RATHER SYMMETRIC\nCDO WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION BURSTING NEAR THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE\nIMAGES SHOW A SMALL EYE ABOUT 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.  SUBJECTIVE\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS, SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF\n65 KT.  ALVIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR VERY\nLONG.  WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS, THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SSTS BELOW 24 DEG C.\nTHESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID\nWEAKENING, AS SUPPORTED BY ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE NUMERICAL\nGUIDANCE.  ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON\nSATURDAY.\n \nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER\nTHAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 305/14 KT.\nALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE\nGRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE LEFT AND DECELERATING.  THE OFFICIAL\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL\nCONSENSUS.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/0300Z 17.4N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 20.1N 119.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 20.9N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 21.5N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nFORECASTER PASCH\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":11,"Date":"2019-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019\n\nALVIN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEGUN TO DEGRADE OVERNIGHT WITH\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO\nNORTHEAST. EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED\nWITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS,\nSUGGESTING THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO BECOME\nLESS SYMMETRIC.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE\nSTARTED TO DECREASE, AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY\nESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS AHEAD OF THE STORM\nARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\nHOURS.  SINCE ALVIN IS A SMALL CYCLONE, IT IS LIKELY TO SUFFER\nFROM THE AFFECTS OF THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT MORE QUICKLY.  AS A\nRESULT, THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER RATE OF\nWEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND\nIS CLOSEST TO THE LATEST FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE CYCLONE\nIS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY AND IT\nSHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\n\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/13 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALVIN SHOULD\nCONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE TURNING\nMORE WESTWARD AND DECELERATING.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\nNEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 18.0N 116.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 19.2N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 20.3N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 20.9N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/0600Z 21.3N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER BROWN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":12,"Date":"2019-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019\n\nALVIN CONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION AS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND HAS\nCOMMENCED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND THE\nCENTER IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\nCONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE, WITH\nA BLENDED AVERAGE INDICATING A 55 KT INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\nADVISORY. ALVIN IS ALREADY OVER SSTS OF 24 C AND WILL MOVE OVER EVEN\nCOOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST\nGUIDANCE DEPICTS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT IMPACTING THE\nCIRCULATION, AND THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 30 KT IN 24\nHOURS. THESE FACTORS, ALONG WITH ALVIN MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED STEADY\nWEAKENING INTO THIS WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO\nBECOME DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\nDISSIPATE BY SUNDAY.\n\nALVIN ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT, WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\n305/14 KT. THIS FASTER MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CLUSTERING OF THE CONSENSUS\nAIDS. ALVIN WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH THROUGH TODAY. THEREAFTER, A MUCH\nWEAKER CYCLONE WILL BECOME STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL\nFLOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DECREASE\nIN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 19.0N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 20.1N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 21.0N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 21.6N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":13,"Date":"2019-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019\n\nALVIN IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO MOTION OVER SEA SURFACE\nTEMPERATURES OF 23-24C AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\nSHEAR, WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE SOUTHERN\nEDGE OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE MASS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\nREDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF RECENT ASCAT DATA AND\nSUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  CONTINUED RAPID\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED, AND ALVIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\nIN ABOUT 24 H AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 36 H.\n\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-18 H DUE TO FLOW AROUND A\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE WEAKENING AND\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE\nLOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 19.7N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 20.7N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 21.5N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.0N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER BEVEN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":14,"Date":"2019-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2019\n\nALVIN HAS VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION, AS STRONG\nSHEAR AND A COOLER OCEAN HAVE BEEN TAKING THEIR TOLL.  THE\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 35 KT, WHICH\nASSUMES A STEADY WEAKENING SINCE THE LAST SCATTEROMETER-BASED\nESTIMATE.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN HOSTILE, ALVIN IS\nLIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.\n\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED, OR\n310/11 KT.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\nCYCLONE SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE EARLY PART\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTERWARDS, THE WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY\nSHALLOW CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 20.1N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/1200Z 21.3N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER PASCH\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":15,"Date":"2019-06-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2019\n\nALVIN HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AS STRONG\nSHEAR AND COOLER WATERS HAVE CAUSED A RAPID DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL\nCYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT, AND IS\nBASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL\nCONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TODAY,\nAND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS\nMORNING.\n\nAS EXPECTED, ALVIN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/7 KT.  NOW THAT ALVIN HAS\nBECOME A VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM, A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW IS\nFORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES\nALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 20.3N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 20.6N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER BROWN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Alvin","Adv":16,"Date":"2019-06-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2019\n\nALVIN CONTINUES TO BE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION WHILE MOVING OVER\nCOOLER WATERS WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM'S\nCIRCULATION. DUE TO THE ONGOING LACK OF CONVECTION, IT IS ESTIMATED\nTHAT ALVIN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.\n\nTHE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\nNORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN 18-24 H.\n\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ALVIN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\nCENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE, UNDER\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND ON THE WEB AT\nOCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP\n\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 20.7N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  30/0000Z 21.3N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER LATTO/BEVEN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":1,"Date":"2019-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP022019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022019\n900 AM MDT SUN JUN 30 2019\n\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND\nASSOCIATED CONVECTION LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF\nSOUTHERN MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH THE CENTER\nEMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.\nIN ADDITION, EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED THAT 35-KT WINDS\nEXISTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.\nTHIS INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE STARTED ON TROPICAL\nSTORM BARBARA, THE SECOND NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC\nHURRICANE SEASON.\n\nBARBARA'S INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL STEER IT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BARBARA WILL\nAPPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\nSOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES IN\nTHE MIDDLE OF A SUITE OF GUIDANCE THAT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH\n96 HOURS AND BEGINS TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME.\n\nTHE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BARBARA SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS\nSOME SHEAR AFFECTING THE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE\nCYCLONE. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONCURS WITH THIS AND INDICATES\n10-15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE CIRCULATION.\nTHIS SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE TO BEGIN TO ABATE IN ABOUT 24\nHOURS. OTHERWISE, BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO BE IN A FAVORABLE\nENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION AND OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 4\nTO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THIS INITIAL\nSHEAR DURING THE EARLY INNER-CORE DEVELOPMENT STAGES OF BARBARA, AND\nCALLS FOR A SLOW AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS.\nTHEREAFTER, THE LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LIKELY CONSOLIDATING\nINNER-CORE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS, AND IS NEAR THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BEYOND\n72 HOURS, BRINGING BARBARA TO CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BY 72 HOURS.\nAFTER 96 HOURS, BARBARA WILL BE APPROACHING A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SSTS\nTO ITS NORTH. ALSO, BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATE\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A REGION WITH INCREASING\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  BOTH OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 96 HOURS.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 10.6N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 11.1N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 11.6N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 12.0N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 12.4N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 13.5N 125.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nFORECASTER LATTO\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2019-06-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n400 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2019\n\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH OF\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL ORGANIZED TODAY,\nAND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED A\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS, ADVISORIES ARE\nBEING INITIATED ON THE FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2019\nEASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 AND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY, AND THE INITIAL WIND\nSPEED HAS BEEN SET AT 25 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\nOVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A LOW WIND SHEAR\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME\nDRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE, MODEST STRENGTHENING\nIS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE, AND THE NHC FOREAST\nFOLLOWS SUIT. AFTER 48 HOURS, INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\nAND COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING, AND THE SYSTEM IS\nFORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\n\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13 KT. A\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN\nPACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\nFEW DAYS.  THERE IS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW MUCH LATITUDE\nTHE SYSTEM WILL GAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE ECMWF WHICH DOES\nNOT DEEPEN THE SYSTEM MUCH, IF AT ALL, SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK\nTHAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES THAT\nTHE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN SOME AND SHOWS A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.2N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 16.7N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 17.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  28/1800Z 18.5N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  29/1800Z 18.8N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER BROWN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2019-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n900 PM MDT TUE JUN 25 2019\n\nTHE CYCLONE HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING\nFEATURES AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER FRAGMENTED AT THIS TIME,\nHOWEVER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER\nCIRCULATION STRUCTURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN\nACCORD WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOPEFULLY, WE WILL\nSOON OBTAIN A SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF\nTHE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT\nDAY OR SO.  THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL AROUND\nTHE 36 HOURS TIME FRAME.  THEREAFTER, INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY\nSHEAR, COOLER WATERS, AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD INDUCE\nWEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\nPREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS\nPREDICTION.\n\nBASED ON MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE CENTER FIXES, A\nFAIRLY BRISK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, AT ABOUT 290/13 KT,\nCONTINUES.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\nDAYS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN\nMEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY\nSLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\nRIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE,\nAND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL\nMODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS.  THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A TRACK AT A MORE\nSOUTHERN LATITUDE, BUT THAT MODEL'S PREDICTION OF THE CYCLONE'S\nEVOLUTION SEEMS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY WEAK.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 15.6N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 15.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 16.3N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 16.8N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 18.6N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER PASCH\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2019-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n300 AM MDT WED JUN 26 2019\n\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER, PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THAT\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED. IN ADDITION, THE\nCOLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE MIGRATED FROM NORTH THROUGH EAST TO NOW\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, ANOTHER INDICATION\nTHAT THE INNER-CORE OF THE DEPRESSION IS UNDERGOING SOME STRUCTURAL\nCHANGES. ALTHOUGH NO ASCAT WIND DATA ARE AVAILABLE OVER THE\nCYCLONE'S CORE, A 0417Z ASCAT-C PASS DID CATCH THE WESTERN PORTION\nOF THE CIRCULATION AND ONLY SHOWED NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITHIN\n30 NMI OF THE CENTER, WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD\nMIGHT NOT BE AS WELL DEVELOPED AS THE CIRCULATION ALOFT IS.\n\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND THE 275/13-KT MOTION ARE BASED ON A BLEND\nOF MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL FIXES, AND ALSO CONTINUITY WITH THE\nPREVIOUS MOTION VECTOR. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT\nAGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY\nA GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A\nSTRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDS STEADY TO THE NORTH OF THE\nCYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SOUTH OF THE\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL\nPOSITION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, THE 00Z\nECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE TRACK\nDURING THE NEXT 24 H. THAT IS A VIABLE ALTERNATE TRACK SCENARIO IF\nTHE CENTER REDEVELOPS FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE COLDEST\nOVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS LATER THIS MORNING.\n\nTHERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN\nINTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 H OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE\nREMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS.\nBY 36-48 HOURS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS\nAND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR\nGENERATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION DESPITE THE FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR\nCONDITIONS FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS,\nDRIER MID-LEVEL AIR, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHEAR\nARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING IN 48-96 HOURS, WITH\nDISSIPATION FORECAST BY 120 H. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND FOLLOWS THE IVCN AND ICON\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 15.5N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 16.4N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 17.0N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0600Z 18.8N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER STEWART\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":4,"Date":"2019-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n900 AM MDT WED JUN 26 2019\n\nVISIBLE AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE\nCENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH THAN\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, POSSIBLY DUE TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED NEAR THE DEEPEST INNER-\nCORE CONVECTION, AND SOME OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE\nPATTERN IS EVIDENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT\nTHE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH, AND THE INITIAL\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB.\nALVIN'S FORMATION MARKS THE 3RD LATEST DATE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF\nTHE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE\nSATELLITE ERA (SINCE 1966).\n\nALVIN HAS TURNED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION\nESTIMATE IS 260/12 KT.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK OVER THE FIRST\nCOUPLE OF DAYS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD, IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE\nMORE SOUTHERLY REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THIS, THE OVERALL\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\nWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\n\nTHERE REMAINS ABOUT A 24-36 HOUR WINDOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR OVER WARM SSTS IN A LOW-SHEAR AND\nSUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT, COMBINED WITH THE\nIMPROVING STRUCTURE OF THE STORM, SUPPORTS RAISING THE INTENSITY\nFORECAST A LITTLE IN THE NEAR TERM. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\nAFTER 36 HOURS, THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ALVIN OVER PROGRESSIVELY\nCOOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS\nSHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING, WITH THE CYCLONE LIKELY BECOMING\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS, AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 14.7N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 14.7N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 15.0N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 16.4N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 17.4N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":5,"Date":"2019-06-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n300 PM MDT WED JUN 26 2019\n\nALVIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT\nSCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SHOWED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING\nONLY ABOUT 30 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS\nSCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\n\nALVIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY,\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 260/12 KT. THROUGH 24\nHOURS, LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK, AS THE\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH\nDISSIPATION.  THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36 HOURS, AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED A\nLITTLE NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS.\n\nALTHOUGH DRY AIR HAS BEEN TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM'S\nCIRCULATION TODAY, DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE\nCENTER. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH\n24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM SSTS IN A LOW-SHEAR\nAND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AFTER 36 HOURS, THE FORECAST\nTRACK TAKES ALVIN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER\nAND HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY\nWEAKENING, WITH THE CYCLONE LIKELY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72\nHOURS, AND DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR\nA LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS INTENSITY\nGUIDANCE.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 14.3N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 14.3N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 15.0N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 16.0N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 17.1N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 18.3N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER LATTO/BRENNAN\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":6,"Date":"2019-06-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n900 PM MDT WED JUN 26 2019\n\nALVIN'S PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED\nCDO WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE CENTER, WITH VERY\nLIMITED BANDING FEATURES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY DISTINCT\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY\nESTIMATE IS BOOSTED SLIGHTLY, TO 45 KT, BASED ON DVORAK CI NUMBERS\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  ALVIN IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SINCE IT SHOULD BE MOVING OVER\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS, WITHIN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR, AND IN A\nMODESTLY MOIST AIR MASS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  BEYOND 24 HOURS,\nCOOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A\nWEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.  ALL OF THE MODELS CALL FOR RAPID\nWEAKENING IN 2 TO 3 DAYS, AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A\nREMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\nLITTLE BELOW THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.\n\nRECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A SOUTHWARD\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW WESTWARD\nOR 270/11 KT.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GENERAL\nTRACK PREDICTION PHILOSOPHY.  OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE CYCLONE\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  MOST OF THE\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE, AND\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE,\nBUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE SIMPLE AND CORRECTED DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS\nAIDS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 14.4N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 15.0N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 16.0N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 17.0N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 19.3N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER PASCH\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":7,"Date":"2019-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012019\n300 AM MDT THU JUN 27 2019\n\nALVIN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS MUCH IMPROVED SINCE THIS TIME\nYESTERDAY, CONSISTING OF A SMALL BUT DISTINCT CDO WITH EXTREMELY\nCOLD OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OF ABOUT -90C NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED\nCENTER. OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL DUE TO THE LOW VERTICAL WIND\nSHEAR CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE COMPACT CYCLONE. A 0435Z ASCAT-A PASS\nREVEALED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDED 15-20 NMI\nAWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH ONE PEAK\nWIND VECTOR OF 46 KT LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT NEAR THE\nOVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS. GIVEN ALVIN'S SMALL SIZE AND LIKELY\nUNDERSAMPLING BY THE SCATTEROMETER INSTRUMENT, THE INTENSITY IS\nRAISED TO 50 KT, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES.\n\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION VECTOR OF 300/11 KT ARE BASED ON\nASCAT-A/-C SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES.\nALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\nADVISORY TRACK, THERE OTHERWISE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\nSTEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\nDEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM NORTHWESTERN\nMEXICO. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK HAS LIKEWISE BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD, BUT NOT QUITE\nAS FAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS OUT OF THE RESPECT FOR THE LOWER\nLATITUDE ECMWF AND FSSE MODELS.\n\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\nWHILE ALVIN REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26 DEG C AND WITHIN A LOW\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGIME. BY 36 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF\nCOOLING SSTS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO INDUCE STEADY\nTO RAPID WEAKENING. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\nLOW BY LATE SATURDAY, AND DISSIPATE BY MONDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN. HCCA,\nAND FSSE.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 15.1N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 15.9N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 17.3N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 18.7N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 19.6N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 20.7N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER STEWART\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":1,"Date":"2019-05-20 22:30:00","Key":"AL012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019\n630 PM AST MON MAY 20 2019\n\nSATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\nTHAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING TO THE\nSOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A SUBTROPICAL STORM.\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE RECENTLY EXITED THE CYCLONE AND\nFOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND HAS A\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM ADJUSTED FLIGHT-LEVEL\nAND SURFACE SFMR WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 35 KT.  THE\nCYCLONE IS CONSIDERED SUBTROPICAL AT THIS TIME BECAUSE IT IS\nINTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS WEST,\nHAS A RELATIVELY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND, AND ITS OVERALL\nAPPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGES.\n\nBASED ON SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES TODAY, THE INITIAL MOTION OF\nANDREA IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD AT 12 KT AS IT HAS BEEN MOVING\nIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST.  THE MODELS SHOW ANDREA SLOWING DOWN\nAND GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND EASTWARD BY\nTUESDAY NIGHT AS IT MOVES ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.\n\nANDREA COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE IT\nREMAINS IN A FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER, AFTER\nTHAT TIME, GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE\nCONDITIONS, AND ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODELS SHOW ANDREA OPENING INTO\nA TROUGH AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.  THE\nNHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\nENVELOPE.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2230Z 28.8N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 30.2N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 31.1N  68.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 31.5N  66.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":2,"Date":"2019-05-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019\n1100 PM AST MON MAY 20 2019\n\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANDREA SINCE THE\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY A FEW HOURS AGO.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A\nPERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE\nNORTH OF THE CENTER, WITH LESS ORGANIZED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND\nTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.   A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWED\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT, WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE AIRCRAFT FOUND\nEARLIER THIS EVENING AND IN ABOUT THE SAME LOCATION.  THEREFORE, THE\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.  THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FROM CIMSS\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.\n\nANDREA IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\nLOW, AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THIS FEATURE IS PART OF THE REASON WHY\nTHE CYCLONE IS CONSIDERED SUBTROPICAL.  THIS UPPER LOW AND A RIDGE\nTO THE EAST IS CAUSING ANDREA TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANDREA SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN\nNORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY, AND THEN EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND\nWEDNESDAY WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\n\nANDREA COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT WHILE IT REMAINS IN A\nRELATIVELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  HOWEVER, AFTER THAT TIME,\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS PREDICTED DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  ALL OF THE RELIABLE MODELS AGREE THAT\nANDREA WILL MERGE WITH, OR BE ABSORBED BY, A COLD FRONT ON\nWEDNESDAY.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\nGFS MODEL.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0300Z 29.5N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 30.4N  68.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 31.1N  67.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 31.3N  65.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":3,"Date":"2019-05-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019\n500 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2019\n\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY,\nLIKELY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL FROM THE SOUTH AND\nMODEST SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDCIATED BY GOES-16 MID-\nAND UPPER-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\nADVISORY DISCUSSION, AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS JUST BARELY CAUGHT\n35-KT WINDS ABOUT 50-55 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER, WHICH\nWAS LIKELY JUST OUTSIDE THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SINCE SLIGHTLY\nSTRONGER WINDS COULD HAVE EXISTED CLOSER TO THE CENTER, THE INITIAL\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY DESPITE THE\nAFOREMENTIONED DEGRADATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.\n\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/05 KT. IT APPEARS THAT ANDREA IS\nSLOWING DOWN, IMPLYING THAT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR\nWITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 H AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT\nSTEADILY APPROACH THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL AND\nREGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANDREA WILL TURN\nNORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY, AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD BY TONIGHT AND\nWEDNESDAY WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE APPROACHING\nDEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES A LITTLE\nSOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\n\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY, THUNDERSTORM\nACTIVITY SHOULD REDEVELOP SOME BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHEN\nANDREA WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD OVER AN SST THERMAL RIDGE AND INTO\nA REGION OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY THAT EXIST BETWEEN 65W-68W\nLONGITUDE. WHICH WILL ALSO BE COINCIDENT WITH THE VERTICAL WIND\nSHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KT AS PER SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.\nHOWEVER, SOME SLIGHT SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX WILL LIKELY OCCUR\nBEFORE CONVECTION CAN RE-FIRE AND RE-STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM. THUS,\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST ESSENTIALLY CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN\nSTRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO\nINCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND THEN MERGER WITH\nA COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY\nFOLLOWS THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0900Z 30.0N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 30.7N  68.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 31.2N  66.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 31.3N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER STEWART\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Andrea","Adv":4,"Date":"2019-05-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019\n1100 AM AST TUE MAY 21 2019\n\nAS EXPECTED, ANDREA IS LIKELY TO BE A SHORT-LIVED EVENT.  THE\nCYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE, AND ANDREA IS NOW\nESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT, AT FIRST GLANCE,\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE\nTHE MOST DOMINANT FEATURE.  BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND A\nBUOY OBSERVATION NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF ANDREA, THE SYSTEM IS\nBEING DOWNGRADED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW AND IN AND\nENVIRONMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ANDREA IS\nLIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN A DAY OR\nLESS.\n\nTHE SYSTEM HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY\nESTIMATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD IN 12-24 HOURS UNTIL\nDISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT A\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS, TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z 30.8N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 31.5N  67.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  22/1200Z 31.7N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER PASCH\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Andrea","Adv":5,"Date":"2019-05-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL012019","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012019\n500 PM AST TUE MAY 21 2019\n\nTHE CYCLONE HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING,\nAND THEREFORE IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS EITHER A TROPICAL OR A\nSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  DRY MID-LEVEL AIR, THE INFLUENCE OF AN\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW, AND MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD PRECLUDE RE-DEVELOPMENT.\nTHE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO AS IT BECOMES\nABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.\n\nPOST-TROPICAL ANDREA HAS TURNED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE\nMOTION IS ABOUT 070/7.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MAINLY EASTWARD\nWITHIN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES UNTIL DISSIPATION.\n\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ANDREA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\nWEATHER SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1, WMO HEADER FZNT01\nKWBC, AND ONLINE AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFAT1.PHP\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z 30.8N  68.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  22/0600Z 31.2N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  22/1800Z 31.7N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nFORECASTER PASCH\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-11-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Twenty-Five-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n300 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018\n\nMicrowave data received during the past several hours indicate that\nthe broad area of low pressure we've been monitoring southwest of\nthe coast of Mexico has developed a sufficiently well-defined center\nof circulation and improved low-level curved bands.  Visible images,\nhowever, still suggest that multiple swirls are revolving around a\ncommon center, with the deepest convection offset to the east of\nthat center due to southwesterly shear.  Now that the system has a\nwell-defined center, advisories are being initiated on Tropical\nDepression Twenty-Five-E, with maximum winds of 30 kt based on\nDvorak classifications of T2.0 and T1.5.\n\nAlthough the depression should remain over sufficiently warm waters\nto support strengthening, southwesterly shear is expected to\nincrease from its current value of about 15 kt to over 25 kt during\nthe next couple of days.  Therefore, only some intensification is\nanticipated during the next 36 hours or so, with weakening beginning\nby day 3.  The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low in\n4 or 5 days once it can no longer produce organized deep convection.\n The statistical-dynamical guidance show little to no strengthening,\nso this initial forecast most closely follows the HWRF, HCCA, and\nGFS models.\n\nThe depression appears to be moving east-northeastward, or 75\ndegrees, at about 7 kt.  The depression is trapped between two\nmid-tropospheric ridges to its east and west, and to the south of an\nexpansive mid-level trough which extends across much of Mexico and\nthe Gulf of Mexico.  The resulting steering pattern should cause the\ncyclone to move slowly northeastward and then northward toward the\ntrough during the next 48 hours, but the system should then turn\nsharply westward on days 4 and 5 once it becomes a shallower system\nand is steered by lower-level easterly flow.  The UKMET model is the\nmain outlier among the model guidance, showing the system reaching\nthe coast of southwestern Mexico, but it appears to keep the\ncirculation too deep in the face of strong southwesterly shear.  The\nNHC track forecast is therefore just slightly left of the TVCN\nmulti-model consensus and the HCCA model, keeping the cyclone well\noffshore of the coast of Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 14.4N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 14.7N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 15.2N 107.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 15.9N 107.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 16.7N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 17.5N 107.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 17.8N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 18.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-11-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n900 PM MDT Fri Nov 02 2018\n\nFor the 22nd time this year, a tropical storm (Xavier) has formed\nover the eastern North Pacific. The most recent intensity estimates\nfrom TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON support increasing the initial\nintensity to 35 kt. Xavier is the first tropical storm to reach the\n\"X\" name on the East Pacific namelist since 1992.\n\nNo changes of note were made to the intensity forecast. The tropical\nstorm is strongly sheared from the southwest and convective activity\nis limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. Although Xavier\nshould be located over warm waters for the next 5 days, strong\nupper-level southwesterly flow will cause high wind shear across the\ncyclone. The HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models all forecast that the\ntropical storm could strengthen a little more over the next day or\nso, while the statistical guidance indicates that Xavier is already\nnear its peak intensity. The NHC intensity forecast follows the\nconsensus and shows slight strengthening through the weekend. By\nearly next week, increased shear and a drier surrounding environment\nwill likely cause Xavier to weaken and become a remnant low.\n\nIt has been difficult to identify the center of Xavier this evening,\nbut it is estimated that the tropical storm is still moving\ngenerally east-northeastward at around 7 kt. A weakness in the\nsubtropical ridge created by a large deep-layer trough extending\nover central Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico should cause Xavier to\nturn toward the northeast or north overnight and tomorrow. There has\nbeen a shift in the GFS and its associated regional models, which\nnow show a farther northeast track of Xavier, closer to the coast of\nMexico. However, a majority of the dynamical models still show the\ncyclone turning abruptly westward and away from land while it\nweakens by early next week. Out of respect for the ECMWF and its\nensemble, which show a much farther west track for Xavier, the NHC\nforecast has been nudged only slightly toward the northeast through\n48 h and now lies a little to the west of the TVCE track consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 15.6N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 16.4N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 17.1N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-11-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n300 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018\n\nA large burst of deep convection has developed over the northeastern\nand eastern portions of Xavier's circulation overnight.  An earlier\nGMI microwave overpass indicated that the center was located near\nthe southwestern edge of the convection, but there was evidence of\nan increase in banding over the northeastern portion of the storm.\nDvorak data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB were T2.5 and T3.0,\nrespectively, so the initial intensity has been increased to\n40 kt for this advisory.\n\nXavier is expected to remain embedded within an area of moderate\nto strong southwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours, and\nthese conditions are likely to prevent significant strengthening.\nAlthough the statistical guidance shows no additional\nintensification, the dynamical models deepen the system over the\nnext day or so, and the NHC forecast calls for a slight increase in\nwind speed today, followed by little change in strength through\nSunday.  This is in good agreement with the latest HFIP corrected\nconsensus model.  By 48 hours the shear is expected to become even\nstronger, and as a result, gradual weakening should occur\nthereafter.  Xavier is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low\nby day 4, if not sooner.\n\nThe aforementioned microwave pass was very helpful in locating the\ncenter of Xavier.  Based on that data and recent satellite fixes,\nthe initial motion estimate is east-northeastward at about 6 kt.\nThe track forecast reasoning has not changed from the previous\nadvisory.  Xavier should turn northeastward, then northward by\ntonight toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by a\ndeep-layer trough over central Mexico.  After Xavier weakens, the\ncyclone should turn toward west-northwestward or westward as it\nis steered by the low-level flow.  Since there is still a fair\namount of spread among the track models as to how far north Xavier\nwill move before it weakens and turns westward, the NHC track is\nclose to the various consensus aids at 48 hours and beyond.  Most\nof the track models have trended a little faster after 48 hours,\nand the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 14.7N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 15.2N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 16.6N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 17.5N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  08/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-11-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n900 AM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018\n\nAlthough Xavier is being affected by 20-25 kt of westerly vertical\nshear, the cyclone continues to generate a large burst of convection\nand the low-level center is now located under the southwestern edge\nof the convective mass.  The initial intensity is increased to 45\nkt, which is at the upper end of the various satellite intensity\nestimates.\n\nDuring the next 24 h, the dynamical models suggest that an\nupper-level trough located to the north and west of Xavier should\nprovide upper-level divergence over the cyclone.  This could allow\nsome additional strengthening despite the ongoing shear.  After\nthat time, the trough is forecast to dissipate, leaving the\ntropical storm in an area of upper-level convergence and moderate\nto strong shear that should cause it to weaken.  Based on this\nevolution, the intensity forecast calls for a little more\nstrengthening during the next 12-24 h, followed by gradual weakening\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period, with the cyclone\nbecoming a remnant low in about 96 h.  The forecast follows the\noverall trend of the intensity guidance and lies near the upper edge\nof the guidance.\n\nBased on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite\nfixes, the initial motion is estimated to be 060/7.  There is again\nlittle change to the forecast track philosophy.  Xavier should turn\nnortheastward and then northward during the next 24 h toward a\nweakness in the subtropical ridge created by the aforementioned\ntrough.  As Xavier weakens and becomes a shallow system, the\ncyclone should turn toward the west-northwest and west as it is\nsteered by the low-level flow to the south of the subtropical ridge.\n The new forecast track is nudged just a little to the east and\nnorth of the previous track, but it remains close to the various\nconsensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 15.3N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 16.6N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 17.3N 106.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 17.4N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  08/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-11-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n300 PM MDT Sat Nov 03 2018\n\nXavier continues to show a sheared cloud pattern in conventional\nsatellite imagery this afternoon, with the low-level center located\nnear or just southwest of the main convective mass.  The various\nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are near 45\nkt, and recent scatterometer data also indicate winds near 45 kt.\nThus, the initial intensity remains at that value.  Analyses from\nCIMSS and from the SHIPS model indicate that Xavier is still in an\nenvironment of 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical shear.\n\nThere is little change in the intensity forecast philosophy from the\nlast advisory.  During the next 12-24 h, the dynamical models\nsuggest that an upper-level trough located to the north and west of\nXavier should provide upper-level divergence over the cyclone.  This\ncould allow some additional strengthening despite the ongoing shear.\nAfter that time, the trough is forecast to dissipate, leaving the\ntropical storm in an area of upper-level convergence, moderate to\nstrong shear, and a dry surrounding air that should cause it to\nweaken. Based on this evolution, the intensity forecast calls for a\nlittle more strengthening early in the forecast, followed by gradual\nweakening through the remainder of the forecast period.  As in the\nprevious forecast, Xavier is expected to degenerate to a remnant low\nin about 96 h.  The forecast again follows the overall trend of the\nintensity guidance and lies near the upper edge of the guidance\nthrough 48 h.\n\nThe initial motion is now 060/8.  As mentioned previously, Xavier\nshould turn northeastward and then northward during the next 24 h\ntoward a weakness in the subtropical ridge created by the\naforementioned trough.  As Xavier weakens and becomes a shallow\nsystem, the cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest and west\nas it is steered by the low-level flow to the south of the\nsubtropical ridge.  All of the dynamical models follow this\nscenario except for the UKMET, which shows a much more northward\nmotion toward the southern Gulf of California.  The new forecast\ntrack will follow the model consensus in showing the westward\nmotion, and the new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous\ntrack.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 15.6N 106.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 16.1N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 16.9N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 17.3N 106.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 17.5N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 18.0N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  08/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-11-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Nov 03 2018\n\nXavier's overall structure has not changed since this afternoon. The\ntropical storm is still strongly sheared and deep convection is\nprimarily occurring to the northeast of its low-level center. Recent\nobjective and subjective intensity estimates range from 45 to 50 kt.\nEarlier ASCAT data explicitly contained several vectors near 45 kt,\nbut the instrument could have under-sampled the maximum winds. Based\non all these data, 50 kt seems most representative of the tropical\nstorm's intensity at this time.\n\nRegardless of Xavier's exact maximum winds, it is likely nearing its\npeak intensity now. Some slight additional strengthening in the\nshort term can not be ruled out, however the global models indicate\nthat strong wind shear will continue through the forecast period and\nthe flow aloft will become less supportive for convection by late\nSunday or early Monday. All of the intensity models forecast that\nXavier will begin to weaken in about 24 h. By 96 h, if not sooner,\nthe dynamical models indicate that Xavier will lose all deep\nconvection and become a remnant low. Virtually no change was made to\nthe official intensity forecast, which is merely an update of the\nprevious advisory.\n\nXavier is now moving toward the northeast, and the initial motion\nestimate is 035/6 kt. With the continued exception of the UKMET\nmodel, the typically reliable track guidance is in good agreement\non the track of the tropical storm. The cyclone will likely turn\nnorthward tonight or tomorrow, and is then forecast to turn steadily\nwestward in another day or two as it weakens and becomes vertically\nshallow. The UKMET does not show this turn and shows a\nstronger/deeper Xavier that moves farther north, though this\nscenario appears unlikely given the strong agreement among the\nintensity models that Xavier will weaken. Only minor adjustments\nwere made to the NHC track forecast, which blends the previous\nofficial forecast with the HCCA and GFEX consensus aids at most\nforecast hours.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 16.1N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 16.7N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 17.8N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 18.1N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 18.3N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-11-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n300 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018\n\nXavier remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  Although deep convection\ncontinues to develop over the northeastern portion of the\ncirculation, recent satellite imagery suggests that the center has\nbecome a little more exposed to the southwest of the convective\nmass.  Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have not changed\novernight, and a blend of those data along with the latest SATCON\nestimate still yields an initial wind speed of 50 kt.\n\nXavier has likely peaked in intensity as the strong vertical wind\nshear over the system is forecast to increase further today and\ntonight.  This should result in gradual weakening during the\nnext day or two, and the new NHC intensity forecast follows the\ntrend of the latest multi-model intensity consensus.  The dynamical\nmodels indicate that Xavier will lose its deep convection in 48 to\n72 hours, and the official forecast calls for the system to\ndegenerate to a remnant low by day 3.\n\nThe latest satellite fixes suggest that Xavier has made its\nanticipated northward turn.  The tropical storm is forecast to\nmove slowly northward today, but it should turn west-northwestward,\nthen westward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it weakens and is\nsteered by the low-level flow to the south of a subtropical ridge.\nThe UKMET model remains an outlier as it keeps the cyclone stronger\nand deeper which allows Xavier to move much farther north.  The\nremainder of the track guidance is in good agreement, and the\nupdated NHC track is near a blend of the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF\nmodels, and is very close to the latest FSSE guidance.\n\nAlthough the center Xavier is not forecast to move much closer to\nthe coast of southwestern Mexico, large swells and locally heavy\nrainfall could affect portions of that area during the next day or\ntwo.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 16.6N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 17.3N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 17.8N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 18.2N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 18.3N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/0600Z 18.5N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-11-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n900 AM CST Sun Nov 04 2018\n\nXavier surprised us a little bit this morning when most of its deep\nconvection was sheared away, revealing that the center of\ncirculation was farther northeast than previously estimated.\nA 1234 UTC SSMIS microwave pass showed that the mid-level center was\nmoving onshore the coast of Mexico with the deep convection, but the\nlow-level center remains well offshore.  Some new convection has\nrecently developed near the low-level center, as well as in a band\nto the northwest.  Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have\nbegun to fall given the decrease in deep convection, and Xavier's\ninitial intensity is therefore lowered to 45 kt.\n\nVarious shear calculations indicate that Xavier is now being\naffected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear, which is expected to\nincrease further during the next 24 hours.  In addition, GOES-16\nlow-level water vapor imagery shows that dry air has infiltrated\nXavier's circulation.  The shear and dry air should make it harder\nand harder for Xavier to maintain organized deep convection, and\nthe cyclone is therefore forecast to steadily weaken and degenerate\ninto a remnant low in about 48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast\nlies within the tightly packed intensity guidance envelope and is\ngenerally an update of the previous forecast.  The remnant low of\nXavier is likely to dissipate by day 5.\n\nXavier's surface center appears to have been tugged northeastward by\ndeep convection over the past 12 hours, which suggests a\nlonger-term motion of 020/9 kt.  Now that most of the convection\nhas been sheared away, however, the surface center seems to have\nslowed down, and the advisory motion is 005/5 kt.  The track\nguidance continues to insist that Xavier will turn northwestward\nand west-northwestward during the next 24 hours as its circulation\nbecomes shallower and is steered by lower-level easterly winds.\nThe UKMET is the notable outlier, keeping Xavier as a deeper\ncirculation and moving it more northward, closer to the coast of\nMexico.  The new NHC track forecast is generally between the\nmulti-model consensus aids (near the northern side of the guidance\nenvelope) and the GFS/ECMWF solutions (near the southern side), and\nit lies north of the previous forecast to account for the adjusted\ninitial position.\n\nLarge swells, locally heavy rainfall, and gusty winds could affect\nportions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or\ntwo, even with the center forecast to remain offshore.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 17.6N 105.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 18.1N 105.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 18.5N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 18.8N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 19.1N 109.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  07/1200Z 19.3N 111.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-11-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n300 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018\n\nAfter being sheared off this morning, deep convection has\nredeveloped and persisted over Xavier's center of circulation.\nDvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 3.0, and\nthe latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 43 kt.  The initial intensity\ntherefore remains 45 kt.  Although shear analyses indicate that\nabout 25 kt of southwesterly shear is affecting Xavier, an\nupper-level trough in the vicinity appears to be producing a decent\namount of divergence aloft to support the ongoing convection.  The\nglobal models show that trough dissipating and the upper flow\nbecoming unidirectional within 12 hours, which should cut off the\ndivergence and allow the adverse effects of shear and dry air to\ntake over.  As a result, gradual weakening is expected during the\nnext couple of days, and Xavier may cease to produce organized deep\nconvection (and thus become a remnant low) in 36-48 hours.  The\nremnant low should dissipate by day 4, if not sooner.  The updated\nNHC intensity forecast is conservative, following continuity from\nthe previous forecast and lying near the upper bound of the\nintensity models.\n\nXavier's motion still appears to be slowly northward, or 350/5 kt.\nThe global models, most of which assume that Xavier will become a\nshallow system soon, show the cyclone turning northwestward and\nwest-northwestward during the next 24 hours.  While this seems\nreasonable, as long as Xavier maintains vertical integrity, it will\nlikely continue moving closer to the right side of the guidance\nenvelope.  With the assumption that deep convection won't dissipate\nright away, the NHC track forecast is to the right of the consensus\naids, close to the ECMWF solution, during the first 24 hours.\nAfter 24 hours, it remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nA 1600 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Xavier's tropical-storm-force\nwind field on the east side was larger than previously estimated,\nwith those winds lying near the coast of southwestern Mexico.  As a\nresult, the government of Mexico issued a Tropical Storm Warning for\na portion of the coasts of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco.  Locally\nheavy rainfall and large swells are also likely to affect the coast\nof southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 18.1N 105.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 18.7N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 19.2N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 19.5N 108.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  07/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1800Z 19.0N 114.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-11-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n900 PM CST Sun Nov 04 2018\n\nXavier continues to be influenced by strong southwesterly shear, on\nthe order of 30 kt, yet appears to be maintaining its intensity for\nnow.  In fact, microwave imagery shows only a slight eastward tilt\nof the center with height which is surprising for a tropical\ncyclone apparently experiencing shear of such magnitude.  It is\nquite possible that strong upper-level divergence over the area is\nhelping to maintain the strength of the storm.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates remain at 45 kt from both TAFB and SAB which will continue\nto be used for the advisory intensity.  In spite of Xavier's\nresilience to a hostile atmospheric environment, the strong shear\nand an increasingly drier mid-level air mass should soon take their\ntoll on the cyclone.  The GFS and the ECMWF global models suggest\nthat the system will degenerate into a remnant low within a couple\nof days, and this is also shown by the official forecast.\n\nXavier has been moving slowly and just to the west of north, or a\nmotion of 350/5 kt, toward a slight weakness in the mid-level flow\nto the southeast of the Baja California peninsula.  A ridge is\nforecast to build to the north of the cyclone, and this should cause\nXavier to turn toward the west-northwest during the next day or so.\nBy 3-4 days, the weak and shallow cyclone is likely to move\ngenerally westward within the low-level flow field.  The official\nforecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the\nlatest dynamical model consensus track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 18.5N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 18.8N 106.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 19.3N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 19.6N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 19.8N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/0000Z 19.7N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-11-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n300 AM CST Mon Nov 05 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Xavier has degraded somewhat\novernight, with the main area of convection decreasing in coverage\nand becoming more separated from the low-level center.  Somewhat\nsurprisingly, a couple of ASCAT passes between 0345 and 0500 UTC\nindicated peak winds of around 50 kt.  This suggests that Xavier may\nhave been slightly stronger than previously estimated since the\noverall structure of the storm was better defined yesterday\nafternoon and evening.  Based on these data, the intensity was\nadjusted to 50 kt on the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory, and remains\nat that value for now.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains\nunchanged.  Strong shear and an increasingly drier mid-level air\nmass are expected to cause the tropical storm to weaken fairly\nquickly over the next day or so, and the global models suggest that\nXavier will degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours.\n\nXavier has been moving slowly northwestward or 305/3 kt. A low- to\nmid-level ridge that is building to the north of Xavier should\ncause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, and then westward\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours.  As the system weakens it is\nforecast to move westward or west-southwestward within the\nlow-level flow until dissipation occurs in 3 to 4 days.  The track\nguidance envelope shifted somewhat southward this cycle, and as a\nresult, the official forecast was adjusted in that direction but it\nremains to the north of the consensus models out of respect for\ncontinuity with the previous NHC track.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 18.4N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 18.7N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 18.9N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 19.1N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 19.2N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/0600Z 19.0N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-11-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n800 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018\n\nA burst of deep convection occurred over the low-level center\naround the time of the last advisory, but that activity has again\nbeen scoured off to the northeast due to 30 kt of southwesterly\nshear.  Satellite intensity estimates have not changed, and the\ninitial intensity remains 50 kt, which is very close to the latest\nUW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates.  Xavier has been tenaciously\nresisting the ill effects of shear for the time being.  However,\nthe circulation will be moving westward toward a drier environment\nwhere mid-level relative humidity values are 30-40 percent.  In\ntheory, the combination of strong shear and drier air should put an\nend to deep convection production, but relatively warm waters could\nstill allow the cyclone to produce intermittent bursts of shower and\nthunderstorm activity over the next several days.  Based on the\nlatest intensity guidance, no changes were made to the official\nforecast, which continues to show Xavier becoming a remnant low in\n48 hours and dissipating by day 4.\n\nCaught within a break in the subtropical ridge, Xavier is only\ncreeping west-northwestward, or 295/3 kt.  As deep convection\ngradually dwindles near the cyclone, the shallower circulation is\nexpected to be steered westward to the south of a low-level ridge\nstretching across northern Mexico and the Baja California\npeninsula.  The new NHC track forecast is nearly identical to the\nprevious one during the first 24 hours.  After 24 hours, it has\nbeen nudged southward toward the various consensus aids, continuing\nthe trend that was noted by the previous forecaster.\n\nEven though Xavier is slowly moving away from the coast of Mexico,\ninclement weather is still occurring near the coasts of Colima and\nJalisco, and tropical-storm-force winds could still be occurring\nin that vicinity.  Therefore, it's prudent to continue the Tropical\nStorm Warning until we have confirmation that the strong winds have\nshifted farther offshore.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 18.5N 106.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 18.7N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 18.9N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/1200Z 18.5N 113.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Xavier","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-11-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Xavier Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n200 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018\n\nAll of Xavier's deep convection dissipated around 1500 UTC, leaving\na swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with embedded shower activity.\nThe initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on a pair of recent\nASCAT passes over the circulation.  Strong southwesterly shear and\nthe surrounding dry environment finally appear to have cut off the\nproduction of deep convection, and although intermittent bursts of\nthunderstorms are still possible, it is unlikely that the\ncirculation will be able to produce persistent organized\nconvection.  Therefore, Xavier's degeneration into a remnant low\nhas been moved up by 24 hours in the official forecast, although it\nis entirely possible that it could become a post-tropical low as\nearly as tonight.  Xavier's winds are also expected to continue to\ngradually diminish, likely falling below tropical-storm-force\novernight or early Tuesday.  The remnant low should then dissipate\nby day 4.\n\nThe initial motion is a little faster toward the west-northwest\n(300 degrees) at 4 kt.  A low-level ridge extending from northern\nMexico westward over the Pacific should drive the now-shallow\ncirculation west-northwestward to westward at a slightly faster\nspeed during the next few days.  The new NHC track forecast has\nbeen adjusted northward to account for recent motion trends, but it\notherwise lies through the middle of the guidance envelope, close\nto the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 19.0N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 19.2N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  07/0600Z 19.3N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  07/1800Z 19.1N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/1800Z 19.0N 112.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Xavier","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-11-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP252018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Xavier Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP252018\n800 PM MST Mon Nov 05 2018\n\nDeep convection has now remained absent in Xavier for about twelve\nhours.  Given the hostile southwesterly vertical shear, dry\nmid-levels, and only lukewarm waters to be encountered by the system\nduring the next couple of days, it is unlikely that persistent deep\nconvection will make a comeback.  Therefore, Xavier is now\nconsidered to be a post-tropical cyclone and this is the last\nadvisory to be issued by the National Hurricane Center.\n\nDespite the lack of thunderstorms, Xavier is showing a well-\npronounced, though small, low-level circulation in the last few\nvisible images. Peak winds in the system are around 40 kt, assuming\nthat some spindown has occurred since the 45 kt observed from the\nASCAT scatterometer several hours ago.  Continued gradual weakening\nis very likely and Xavier is anticipated to become a remnant low by\nTuesday night and dissipate in about three days.\n\nThe post-tropical cyclone is moving west-northwestward at around\n5 kt.  The system should turn toward the west or west-southwest\nduring the next couple of days until dissipation, under the\ninfluence of a lower tropospheric ridge north of Xavier.\n\nFor additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttps://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 19.1N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  06/1200Z 19.2N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  07/0000Z 19.3N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  07/1200Z 19.2N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  08/0000Z 19.1N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  09/0000Z 18.8N 113.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Six Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nConvection associated with the depression is becoming more\nconcentrated, although the center still appears to be near the\neastern edge of the convective mass.  The latest satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 and 25 kt repsectively,\nwhile the CIMSS satellite consensus method suggests the cyclone has\nbecome a tropical storm.  Based on the available data, the initial\nintensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt.  The depression is\nfeeling the effects of moderate easterly vertical wind shear, with\nlittle or no cirrus outflow in the eastern semicircle.\n\nThe initial motion is now 285/12.  Deep layer easterly or east-\nsoutheasterly flow on the south side of the subtropical ridge should\nsteer the cyclone generally west-northwestward across the open\nAtlantic ocean for the next 3-4 days.  After that time, the cyclone\nis expected to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the\nsubtropical ridge.  The track guidance remains in good agreement\nwith this scenario, although there remains some spread on how\nsharp the turn will be near the end of the forecast period.  The\nnew forecast track, which is an update of the previous forecast, is\nnear the various consensus models.\n\nWhile the current shear is expected to subside during the next day\nor so, the forecast track takes the cyclone over waters that cool\nto near 26C in about 48 h.  The intensity forecast thus calls for\nonly gradual intensification through this time.  After 48-72 h, the\nsystem should move over warmer water, but also should encounter\nincreasing westerly shear.  The intensity guidance responds to this\ncombination of ingredients by showing little change in strength.\nThe new intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the previous\nforecast, is in the stronger portion of the inetnsity guidance and\nabove the forecasts of the consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 14.2N  25.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 14.7N  27.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 15.5N  29.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 16.3N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 17.0N  35.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 18.5N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 23.0N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nSeveral recent microwave passes indicate that Norman continues to\nfeel the effects of northeasterly shear, with the cyclone vertically\ntitled and its upper-level core disrupted in the northern\nsemicircle. Furthermore, the eye of the hurricane has disappeared\non IR and visible imagery. Satellite intensity estimates from\nTAFB and SAB have also decreased since the previous advisory, and\ntherefore, the initial intensity has been decreased to 105 kt, and\nthis value could be a little generous.\n\nModel guidance continues to indicate moderate northeasterly shear\nover the cyclone for the next day or so, which should cause\nthe gradual weakening to continue. Thereafter, the shear is\nforecast to lessen somewhat, but the cyclone is expected to begin\nentraining dry air from its surrounding environment. There may be\nsome time between 24-48 hours when the lessening shear and warm SSTs\ncould overcome the drier air in the environment to allow for either\na steadying of intensity or perhaps even some slight\nre-strengthening. Beyond 48 hours, however, the environment is\nforecast to become even drier, which should induce another weakening\ntrend. The NHC intensity forecast has been changed little through 24\nh, but now shows a leveling off of the intensity from 24-48 h.\nSteady weakening is still anticipated beyond that time.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 250/7 kt.\nMid- to upper-level ridging that extends west-southwestward from\nthe Baja California peninsula to just northwest of the cyclone\nshould steer Norman west-southwestward for the next several hours.\nBy Saturday morning, the ridge should begin to become oriented more\neast-to-west then southeast-to-northwest by Sunday. This will cause\nthe system to be steered on a more westward then west-northwestward\ntrack with an increase in forward speed over the weekend and into\nearly next week. The NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly\nleft and is a little faster than the previous advisory.  This\nforecast is generally between the previous NHC forecast and the\nconsensus guidance track.  Based on this forecast, Norman is\nexpected to move into the central Pacific basin by Tuesday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 16.3N 122.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 16.4N 125.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 17.0N 128.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 17.7N 131.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 19.1N 138.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.3N 142.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 21.2N 146.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n900 PM MDT Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the low pressure system located a\nlittle more than 400 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has\ndeveloped organized deep convection and a well-defined center.\nTherefore, the system now qualifies as a tropical depression, the\nseventeenth one of the busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane\nseason.  The center of the system is estimated to be near the\nnortheastern portion of the deep convection based on recent\nmicrowave data.  The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement\nwith a Dvorak classification from TAFB.\n\nThe initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it\nonly recently formed, but my best guess is 285/9.  The system is\nexpected to move a little slower to the west-northwest or northwest\nduring the next couple of days while it remains to the south of a\nweakness in the subtropical ridge.  Beyond that time, the\nsubtropical ridge is expected to build to the north of the tropical\ncyclone, and that should cause it to turn more westward and increase\nin forward speed.  The models agree on this overall scenario, but\nthere is a fair amount of cross-track (north-south) spread.  The NHC\ntrack forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope\nnear the various consensus models.\n\nThe depression is currently experiencing some northeasterly shear,\nand that should limit the strengthening process overnight.  However,\nthe models show the upper-level pattern becoming quite favorable\nthis weekend.  The expected decrease in shear combined with warm\nSSTs and a moist environment should allow the system to steadily\nstrengthen for most of the forecast period. The NHC intensity\nforecast is a little lower than the HCCA model in the short term,\nbut leans heavily on that guidance from 48 hours and beyond.  It\nshould also be noted that the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF models all show\nthis system deepening significantly during the next several days,\nwhich is a good indication that this cyclone will likely become\nanother significant hurricane.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 14.3N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 15.6N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 16.1N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 16.6N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 17.0N 115.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 17.4N 118.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 18.3N 122.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nA recent SSMIS microwave pass has revealed that the cyclone has\nbecome much better organized with more pronounced convective\nbanding.  Satellite intensity estimates are wide ranging, spanning\nfrom T1.5/25 kt from SAB to T3.4/53 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Since\nthe numbers overall have increased, and the structure has improved,\nthe initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, in closest agreement to\nthe TAFB estimate, but this could be conservative.  This makes the\ndepression Tropical Storm Florence, the sixth named storm of the\nseason.\n\nFlorence is moving west-northwestward, or 285/12 kt, and should\nmaintain this motion for the next 48 hours while traveling along the\nsouthern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  After 48 hours, the\nstorm is expected to reach a break in the ridge, causing it to slow\ndown and turn northwestward by day 5.  The biggest change noted\namong the track models on this cycle was a westward shift in the\noverall guidance envelope.  The European model, in particular, swung\nsignificantly to the left, showing a weaker Florence not feeling the\nbreak in the ridge quite as much.  I'd like to see this trend\ncontinue before making a significant change to the forecast, so for\nnow the updated NHC track prediction is only nudged westward. That\nsaid, the models appear to be trending away from a definitive\nrecurvature scenario.\n\nThe environment is mixed with positives and negatives for Florence's\nstrengthening.  For the first 3 days, vertical shear over Florence\nshould be quite low, but the cyclone will also be moving through a\nless-than-ideal thermodynamic environment with marginal sea surface\ntemperatures and decreasing mid-level moisture.  After 3 days, the\nthermodynamic environment should begin to improve, but then the\nshear is forecast to strengthen. These conflicting signals point to\nonly gradual strengthening, and the suite of intensity models aren't\ntoo far off from one another, nor from the previous NHC forecast.\nFor that reason, no significant changes were made in this forecast\npackage.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 14.5N  26.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 15.0N  28.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 15.7N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 16.4N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 17.1N  36.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 18.7N  41.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 21.0N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 23.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nNorman continues to weaken due to the effects of moderate\nnortheasterly shear of about 20 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS\ndiagnostics. The hurricane has taken on a traditional IR shear\npattern structure, with a tight gradient of brightness temperatures\nobserved up-shear of the estimated center position. Satellite\nintensity estimates have continued to drop and no longer support\nkeeping Norman at major hurricane strength. The initial intensity\nhas been lowered to 95 kt, just above the latest SATCON estimate,\nbut this still could be generous.\n\nThe shear affecting Norman is expected to continue for at least the\nnext 24 h. Some of the dynamical models hint that the shear could\nrelax between 24-48 h, which would likely bring an end to Norman's\nweakening trend. While it is not explicitly reflected in the\nintensity forecast, a decrease in shear could even allow the\nhurricane to briefly restrengthen. Recent microwave imagery\nindicates that the mid- to lower-level inner-core and eye of Norman\nare still intact. If this structure can survive the next 24 h of\nshear, reintensification would be more likely. By 72 h, the\nhurricane will reach drier, more stable air and moderate SSTs, and\nthese factors will likely cause it to steadily weaken through the\nremainder of the forecast period.\n\nThe cyclone appears to have finally turned westward, and the\ninitial motion is 265/7 kt.  No significant changes have been made\nto the track forecast. Norman is still expected to move westward\nto west-northwestward for the next several days, steered primarily\nby an extensive deep-layer ridge to the north. The models remain\nin good agreement on the track of Norman throughout the forecast\nperiod, and the official track forecast is near the middle of the\nguidance envelope and very close to the various consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 16.3N 123.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 16.3N 124.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 16.6N 126.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 17.3N 129.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 18.2N 132.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 19.9N 139.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 21.0N 143.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 21.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n300 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nRecent microwave data and GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery have\nindicated that the depression consists of a broad low-level\ncirculation with the center exposed to the northeast of the\nassociated deep convection.  Since the system is still rather\ndisorganized, and T-numbers have not increased, the maximum winds\nremain 30 kt.  Based on the 00Z suite of global models, it may be\nanother day or two before the depression becomes organized enough to\nstart strengthening.  In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models in\nparticular show the center jumping around or re-forming during the\nnext 24 hours, with more significant deepening not occurring until\nafter 48 hours.  Once the cyclone is able to consolidate, a\nmore robust intensification phase should occur since it will be\nlocated over warm waters and in a relatively low-shear environment.\nTo account for the possible slow initial organization process, the\nNHC intensity forecast has been decreased during the first 3 days or\nso and is a little below the intensity consensus.  After day 3, the\nofficial forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and is\ncloser to the intensity consensus and the HCCA model.\n\nThe depression still appears to be moving west-northwestward, or\n285/9 kt, but that motion is uncertain given the poor organization.\nAs noted above, the center could jump around or re-form during the\nnext 24 hours, but overall the cyclone should move slowly toward the\nwest-northwest for the next 2 days, south of the subtropical ridge.\nAfter that time, the ridge is expected to strengthen, which should\ncause the system to move faster toward the west on days 3 through 5.\nSince the model trackers are bouncing around so much during the\nfirst 2 days of the forecast period, the NHC track forecast is not\nmuch different from the previous forecast to maintain continuity,\nalthough it is a little slower to be in line with the latest HCCA\nsolution.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 14.7N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 15.6N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 16.0N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 16.4N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 16.6N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 18.0N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Florence's cloud pattern has improved\nin organization with the low-level center embedded within the\nconvection, and a cyclonically curved band surrounding the system. A\nblend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers from TAFB, SAB, and\nthe UW-CIMMS yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.\n\nMy predecessor wrote a very clear explanation of the reasoning of\nhis track and intensity forecasts, and I do not think I can improve\non it. The environment continues to be mixed with favorable and\nunfavorable conditions for Florence to strengthen. Currently,\nthe shear is low and favors strengthening, but the ocean along the\ncyclone's forecast path is cooler. The latter condition should\ninhibit significant intensification.  After 3 days, the opposite is\nanticipated -- the ocean will be warmer, but the shear will likely\nbe high. Only at the very long range could both factors become\nfavorable. The best option at this time is to show only a gradual\nstrengthening at the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids.\n\nFlorence is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees\nat 12 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3 days\nwhile Florence is located to the south of the subtropical ridge.\nAfter that time, Florence will reach a break in the ridge causing\nthe cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a decrease in forward\nspeed. The confidence in the forecast is high during the next 3 days\nwhen the track guidance envelope is tightly packed. Thereafter, the\nconfidence is not so high since the envelope widens and becomes\nbounded by the easternmost HWRF and the westernmost ECMWF models.\nSince the guidance envelope shifted a little bit westward, the NHC\nforecast was also adjusted slightly in that direction, primarily\nduring the end of the forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 14.8N  27.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 15.3N  29.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 16.1N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 16.5N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 17.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 19.0N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 21.0N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 23.5N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 AM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nAlthough satellite intensity estimates indicate that Norman has\ncontinued to weaken, the weakening trend appears to have abated.\nThis is based on recent infrared imagery showing a better developed\nCDO feature accompanied by improved outflow, and also a well-defined\nclosed eye now depicted in a 1148Z AMSR and 1158Z SSMIS microwave\nsatellite images. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt,\nwhich is a blend of the various satellite intensity estimates, with\na little more weight placed on the TAFB estimate of T5.0/90 kt.\n\nNorman's initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. The aforementioned\neye noted in the microwave passes greatly helped with determining\nthe cyclone's location and past motion. Other than some slight\nforward speed adjustments made in the first 24 hours due to the\nfaster initial motion, no significant changes were required to the\nprevious track forecast. Norman is forecast to move westward to\nwest-northwestward for the next several days as the hurricane moves\nalong the southern periphery of strong deep-layer ridge to the\nnorth. The models are in excellent agreement on the track of Norman\nthrough 72 h, and then diverge noticeably after that time with the\nGFS taking Norman more westward in the general direction of the\nHawaiian Islands, whereas the ECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models keep\nNorman well to the northeast of the islands. The official forecast\ntrack lies close to the middle of the tightly packed guidance\nenvelope through 72 h, and then is close to the consensus aids HCCA\nand FSSE after that.\n\nThe shear that has been affecting Norman appears to have weakened\nsome this morning, and that decreasing trend is expected to\ncontinue throughout the forecast period, becoming near zero in\n48-72 h according to the ECMWF model. The GFS model shows a\nsimilar decreasing shear trend, but just not as much as the ECMWF\nmodel. The HWRF and HMON models also have the shear decreasing and\ndo a complete reversal by re-strengthening Norman into a major\nhurricane again during the next 24 h, followed by slow weakening\nthereafter. For now, the official intensity forecast shows little\nchange in strength for the next 24 h, followed by slow weakening\nduring the remainder of the forecast period as the cyclone\nencounters drier air and cooler sea-surface temperatures near 26C.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 16.2N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 16.3N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 16.9N 128.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 17.8N 131.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 18.7N 134.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 21.3N 145.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 22.0N 148.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n900 AM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nA 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated that the low-level circulation\nremains elongated northeast-to-southwest, with the alleged center\npositioned northeast of the deepest convection. Although cloud tops\nhave cooled significant since the previous advisory, microwave\ndata indicate that the convection remains loosely organized\nunderneath the dense cirrus canopy. The initial intensity remains\n30 kt for this advisory, which is just below the various satellite\nintensity estimates.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/08 kt. Although the center is\nsomewhat ill-defined, the models remain remarkably in good\nagreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next\n24-36 h, and then turning westward as the system encounters a\nstrong subtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico\nacross the eastern North Pacific. The NHC new track forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to the HCCA\nand FSSE consensus models.\n\n The ECMWF model is forecasting the shear along the cyclone's track\nto decrease to less than 10 kt by 12 h and beyond. The combination\nof the low shear and warm waters beneath the cyclone supports at\nleast steady strengthening. The only hindering factor early on is\nwhen the inner-core wind field finally contracts and becomes better\ndefined to allow for more significant intensification to begin. The\nintensity forecast follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 14.9N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 15.3N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 16.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 16.4N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 18.0N 125.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern has continued to improve with a circular area of\nconvection near the center, and a cyclonically curved band\nsurrounding the system.  The upper-level outflow is fair in all\nquadrants. Although the cloud pattern is better organized, the\nDvorak T-numbers have not changed, and only support 40 kt at this\ntime.\n\nFlorence has a couple of more days embedded within a low-shear\nenvironment which supports strengthening, but it is also currently\nheading toward marginal SSTs. By the time the cyclone reaches\nwarmer waters again, the shear is forecast to be unfavorable. The\nbest option at this time is to show only a very modest strengthening\nat the rate indicated by the intensity consensus aids.\n\nFlorence has been moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees\nat 12 to 14 kt. No change in track is anticipated during the next 3\ndays while Florence is located to the south of the Atlantic\nsubtropical ridge.  After that time, Florence will reach a break in\nthe ridge causing the cyclone to turn toward the northwest with a\ndecrease in forward speed.  The latter portion of the forecast is\nuncertain since the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north\nhas been fluctuating from run to run in each model. At this time,\nthe overall guidance has been shifting a little bit westward,\nsuggesting a stronger ridge. On this basis, the NHC forecast was\nadjusted slightly in that direction at the end of the forecast\nperiod.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 15.6N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 16.2N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 16.8N  33.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 17.5N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 18.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 19.5N  43.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 21.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 23.5N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nSince the previous advisory, a well-defined closed eye has remained\napparent in microwave satellite data, and a cloud-filled eye has\nappeared in visible satellite imagery during the past couple of\nhours. Satellite intensity estimated haven't changed since the\nprevious advisory, so the initial intensity remains 90 kt, which is\nsupported by a 1501Z SATCON estimate of 88 kt and a Dvorak CI value\nof T5.0/90 kt.\n\nNorman's initial motion estimate is now 275/12 kt based on microwave\nand visible satellite eye position estimates. There are\nno significant changes to the previous track forecast and reasoning.\nThe hurricane is expected to be steered by a strong deep-layer\nsubtropical ridge to the north, resulting in a westward motion for\nthe next 12-24 hours, followed by a west-northwestward motion at a\nfaster forward speed. The latest model guidance is tightly packed\nabout the previous forecast track through 96 hours, with much less\ndivergence after that compared to previous model runs. Therefore,\nthe new forecast track is essentially just an extension of the\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA,\nFSSE, and TVCE consensus track models.\n\nThe GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the 15-20 kt of vertical\nwind shear that has been affecting Norman to steadily decrease for\nthe next 60-72 hours, possibly becoming near zero if the ECMWF\nupper-level wind forecasts verify. Since the hurricane is expected\nto remain over 27 deg C and warmer SSTs for the next 48 hours, only\nslow weakening is forecast and that is due mainly to occasional\nintrusions of drier and more stable air coming in from the\nnorthwest, where a large field of cold-air stratocumulus clouds is\ncurrently lurking close by. The HWRF and HMON models continue to\nforecast Norman to re-strengthen into a major hurricane during the\nnext 24 hours, but this scenario is being discounted at this time\ndue to Norman's proximity to the aforementioned stratocumulus cloud\nfield.  By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler SSTs\nshould combine to induce more significant weakening. The NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the HCCA and IVCN consensus model\nforecasts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 16.3N 125.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 17.4N 130.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 18.2N 133.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 19.1N 136.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 20.4N 142.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 21.4N 146.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 22.2N 149.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n300 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nASCAT scatterometer overpasses at 1625Z and 1704Z indicated that\nthe depression's inner-core wind field remains elongated\nnortheast-to-southwest, with a second fully exposed low-level swirl\nlocated near the northeastern end of the wind field. There was also\na fairly large field of 27-29 kt surface wind vectors located in the\nsouthern quadrant. Various Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have\nremained unchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial\nintensity is being held at 30 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 285/10 kt. Most of the\nglobal and regional models take the cyclone west-northwestward for\nthe next 24 h or so, and then move it westward thereafter. The\nexception is the new GFS model run, which takes the system northward\nfor 36 h before turning it back westward. The GFS appears to have\nkeyed in on the aforementioned exposed low-level swirl noted in the\nASCAT and recent visible satellite data, and makes it the primary\ncirculation center. The official forecast track calls for the main\nlow-level center to remain/develop closer to the stronger deep\nconvection and strongest low-level winds and associated vorticity.\nThe more northern track of the GFS model is being discounted, but it\nhas strongly skewed the various consensus tracks farther to the\nnorth.  As a result, the new official forecast track lies south of\nthe consensus model HCCA, and is close to the previous advisory\ntrack and a blend of the more westerly HWRF and ECMWF models.\n\nDue to the GFS model's more northerly track, the GFS-based shear\ncomputations have a high bias. In contrast, the more southerly ECMWF\nmodel has continued to forecast much weaker shear of 10-15 kt for\nthe next 72 h, followed by decreasing shear after that. These more\nmodest shear conditions, combined with very warm SSTs greater than\n28.5 deg C, should allow for at least steady strengthening to occur.\nThe only hindering factor early on remains when the inner-core wind\nfield contracts down and becomes better defined, which would result\nin sooner and more significant intensification to occur than is\nindicated by the official forecast. For now, the intensity forecast\nremains above the consensus models HCCA and IVCN due to the very low\nbias induced by the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 14.9N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 15.3N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 15.7N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 16.0N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 16.2N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 16.3N 118.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 16.9N 122.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 18.3N 127.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nFlorence continues to become better organized, with a circular\ncentral dense overcast and a complex of outer bands in all\nquadrants except the southwest.  Satellite intensity estimates\nrange from 35-55 kt, and thus the initial intensity is increased to\n45 kt.  Given the overall good appearance in satellite imagery, it\nis possible this is conservative.\n\nFor the next 2 days or so, Florence should remain in a light shear\nenvironment over sea surface temperatures near 26C.  Most of the\nguidance shows some slow strengthening, and the intensity forecast\nfollows suit.  After 48 h, the cyclone should reach warmer water and\nencounter southwesterly shear, and this combination is expected to\nresult in little change in strength during this period.  The\nintensity forecast is only slightly changed from the previous\nadvisory and remains near the consensus aids.  Considering the lack\nof shear and the good structure, though, it would not be surprising\nif Florence got a little stronger than forecast during the next\ncouple of days.\n\nThe initial motion is 290/12.  The track guidance suggests a\ngeneral west-northwestward motion should continue for the next 3-4\ndays as Florence is steered by the subtropical ridge to the north.\nNear the end of the forecast period, a more northwestward motion\nis expected.  Despite the relatively straightforward steering\npattern, there is a significant spread in the track guidance even by\n72 h, with the Canadian model on the far right side of the guidance\nenvelope, the ECMWF on the left side, and the other dynamical\nmodels loosely clustered in between.  However, the overall guidance\nenvelope has changed little since the last advisory, and the new\ntrack forecast lies near both the center of the envelope and the\nprevious forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 16.0N  30.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 16.5N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 17.1N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 17.6N  37.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 18.2N  40.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 19.5N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 21.5N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 24.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nNorman looked a little ragged in satellite imagery near 0000 UTC.\nSince that time, though, the hurricane looks better organized, with\nthe eyewall convection better defined in visible and infrared\nimagery.  Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since\nthe past advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly\ngenerous 90 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 280/11.  The hurricane is expected to be\nsteered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north,\nresulting in a generally west-northwestward motion with an increase\nin forward speed during the next 2-3 days.  After that time, a\ndecrease in forward speed is expected as Norman approaches a\nweakness in the ridge.  There is some spread in the guidance at\ndays 4-5, with the HWRF on the north side of the guidance envelope\nshowing a northwestward turn and the GFS on the south side showing a\nmore westward motion.  The new forecast track is similar to the\nprevious track and lies just to the south of the center of the\nguidance envelope.\n\nNorman is expected to be in a light shear environment for 48-72 h.\nHowever, during this time the cyclone will be moving over cooler\nsea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass.  Based on the\nguidance, the intensity forecast calls for little change in\nstrength for 24 h followed by a gradual weakening from 24-72 h.\nAfter 72 h, increasing southerly shear should cause a faster\nweakening.  It should be noted that there is a chance that Norman\ncould get stronger than forecast while over warm water during the\nnext 12-18 h as indicated by the HWRF and HMON models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 17.1N 128.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 18.0N 131.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 18.9N 134.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 21.0N 143.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 21.5N 147.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 23.0N 150.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seventeen-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n900 PM MDT Sat Sep 01 2018\n\nSatellite data indicate that the cyclone remains elongated from\nnortheast to southwest with the low-level center estimated to be on\nthe northeastern side of the main area of deep convection.  Even\nthough the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that the\nsystem could be a tropical storm, the initial wind speed is held at\n30 kt since the structure of the depression is not well organized.\nThis wind speed estimate is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass.\n\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt.  The models\ninsist that the cyclone will slow down during the next day or two\nwhile it lies to the south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge.\nAfter that time, the subtropical ridge is expected to build to the\nnorth of the depression, and that should cause it to move faster and\nturn toward the west.  Only small changes were made to the previous\nforecast track and it remains on the southern side of the guidance\nenvelope in the short term, as many of the models show the\ndepression turning abruptly northward possibly due to the\nreformation of the center.  For now, the NHC track forecast assumes\nthat the center will not reform, but northward adjustments could be\nrequired if that does occur.\n\nThe northeasterly shear that is currently affecting the depression\nis expected to let up some during the next couple of days, which\nshould allow the system to at least gradually strengthen.  However,\nthe intensity models are less aggressive this cycle, leaving the\nprevious forecast at the upper bound of the guidance envelope at\nthe longer forecast times.  The new NHC intensity forecast is\nlargely an update of the previous one, except a little lower at the\nlonger range to trend toward the latest guidance.  The confidence in\nthe intensity forecast is low because of the run-to-run variability\nin the model guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 15.2N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 15.7N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 16.7N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 16.8N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nFlorence continues to gradually strengthen.  Microwave imagery from\na recent AMSR overpass indicates that a majority of the deep\nconvection is located in the northern semicircle of the tropical\nstorm, but its center is still well embedded within the central\ndense overcast. A blend of satellite intensity estimates from SAB\nand TAFB supports increasing the intensity to 50 kt.\n\nSome additional slight strengthening is still expected over the next\nday or so while Florence remains in a light shear environment and\nover marginal SSTs.  Beginning in about 3 days, slow weakening is\nforecast due to an expected increase in wind shear associated with\nan extensive mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic.\nThe intensity guidance is in generally good agreement through 120 h,\nand the official forecast remains near the intensity consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is now 290/13.  The track guidance is fairly\ntightly packed for the first 48 h or so, with the spread increasing\nmore quickly beyond that time.  For the next couple of days, the\nsubtropical ridge should keep Florence moving westward to\nwest-northwestward at a similar forward speed.  By day 3, a\nwest-northwest to northwest motion is forecast to begin, as the\naforementioned mid- to upper-level trough influences the track of\nthe tropical storm.  While all of the global models show this\ngeneral scenario, the extent to which Florence will gain latitude is\nless certain.  A stronger Florence will likely turn more toward the\nnorthwest, while a weaker, shallower system should continue on a\nmore westward to west-northwestward track.  For now, the NHC\nforecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, close to\nall of the consensus models.  This track is also generally in line\nwith the official intensity forecast, which shows a somewhat weaker\nsystem than the GFS (on the north side of the guidance), but a\nstronger one than the ECMWF (on the south side).\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 16.5N  31.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.0N  33.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 17.5N  36.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 18.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 18.5N  41.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 20.1N  45.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 22.0N  49.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 24.0N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nNorman's structure has continued to slowly improve this morning.  A\nragged, but fairly clear, eye has been apparent in shortwave and\nlongwave IR imagery for the past several hours, and cloud tops\naround the eye have generally cooled.  The initial intensity has\nbeen held at 90 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak fixes from\nTAFB and SAB.  However, the most recent objective intensity\nestimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT are slightly higher, suggesting this\nestimate could be conservative.\n\nGiven that Norman appears to be on the upswing, the forecast now\nallows for some slight re-strengthening over the next 12 h while the\nhurricane remains over warm waters and the shear is expected to be\nlight.  Beyond that time, however, there has been no significant\nchange to the intensity forecast reasoning or the guidance.  The\ncyclone is still expected to gradually weaken as it encounters a\nmarginal environment consisting of cool SSTs, fairly dry air, and by\nthe end of the forecast period, increasing shear.  At 24 h and\nbeyond, the NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus,\nand has not been substantially changed from the previous advisory.\n\nNorman is beginning to accelerate and the initial motion estimate is\n290/11.  A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north should\nkeep Norman moving generally westward to west-northwestward through\nmost of the forecast period, with a notable increase in speed for\nthe next day or two.  All of the models agree on this general\nscenario, however there is still some north-south spread in the\nguidance, with the GFS and ECMWF on opposite sides of the guidance\nenvelope.  Like the previous forecast, the official track forecast\ngenerally splits these models and lies near the middle of the\nguidance envelope and the consensus aids, FSSE and HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 17.1N 127.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.7N 129.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 18.6N 133.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 19.4N 136.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 20.1N 139.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 20.8N 144.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 21.5N 149.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 23.0N 152.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n300 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nThe tropical cyclone's convection is still not well organized, and\nthe cloud pattern consists of an irregularly shaped CDO-like\nfeature with limited banding.  Nonetheless, a couple of\nscatterometer overpasses showed that the cyclone had winds to around\n40 kt over the southern semicircle of the circulation.  Therefore\nthe system is being named, and the aforementioned wind speed will be\nused for the advisory intensity.  The north-northeasterly shear\nthat has been affecting the storm is expected to abate somewhat,\nwhich would allow for further strengthening.  The official\nintensity forecast is in line with the latest numerical model\nconsensus, IVCN.  Some of the models show more rapid strengthening\nduring the next day or two, but this does not seem likely at this\ntime since the system is still not very well organized and some\nshear is expected to continue affecting it.\n\nThe center was somewhat elongated in the scatterometer data, but\nappeared to be located a little north of the previous working best\ntrack.  The initial motion is a rather uncertain 300/8 kt.  A weak\nmid-level ridge to the north of Olivia should lead to a slow\nwest-northwestward to northwestward motion over the next day or two.\nThereafter, a strengthening ridge is likely to cause a turn toward\nthe west with some increase in forward speed.  Late in the forecast\nperiod, the dynamical model consensus indicates a turn back to the\nwest-northwest.  The official track forecast is a little north of\nthe previous one, mainly due to the recent re-positioning of the\ncenter.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 16.0N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 16.6N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 17.2N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nFlorence's convective cloud appearance has become rather disheveled\nthis morning, with most of the deep convection sheared to the east\nand northeast of the now fully exposed but well-defined low-level\ncirculation center. Both subjective and objective satellite\nintensity estimates have decreased, especially the objective ADT\nestimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on a blend of the available\nestimates, the intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/16. Now that the system has weakened and\nbecome more vertically shallow, a more westward component of motion\nis expected throughout the forecast period. All but the GFS and HWRF\nmodels have picked up on this more westerly component of motion, and\nthe ECMWF and UKMET models are now the southernmost models in the\nguidance suite. Since the ridge to the north is expected to remain\nintact and even build more westward over the next 5 days, the new\nNHC track forecast has been shifted southward and to the left of the\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA,\nFSSE, and TCVN track consensus models.\n\nAnalyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that westerly to southwesterly\nvertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is undercutting the otherwise\nfavorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery\nand by the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model, which show the shear\nto be less than 10 kt. GOES-16 mid-level water vapor imagery also\nreveals that Florence is ingesting considerable dry air in the\nwestern and southern quadrants, with the dry mid-level air having\npenetrated into the inner-core region. Since the vertical shear is\nexpected to get a little worse over the next 3-4 days while the\ncyclone is moving over SSTs near 26 deg C, little change in strength\nis forecast through 96 h. By 120 h, however, Florence is forecast to\nmove over warmer waters with SSTs exceeding 28 deg C and also into\na weaker shear environment, which should allow for some\nre-strengthening to occur. The new NHC intensity forecast is a\nlittle lower than the one in the previous advisory, and closely\nfollows the consensus model IVCN, through 96 h, and then is a\nlittle above the guidance at 120 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.0N  33.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 17.4N  35.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 17.9N  38.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 18.4N  40.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 18.9N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 22.4N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 24.3N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 AM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nNorman has made a remarkable and surprising come back today.\nSatellite images reveal a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very\ndeep convection, and Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB reached\nT6.0 around 1200 UTC.  These numbers have leveled off since then. On\nthis basis, the initial intensity has been increased to 115 kt,\nmaking Norman again a Category Four Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\nScale.  The hurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs,\nand although some of the intensity models are more aggressive in\nforecasting strengthening, the NHC forecast prefers the consensus\nIVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 to 24 hours.\n\nNorman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a\nstrong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Norman, and this\nflow pattern will continue to steer the hurricane between the\nwest and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 to 3 days.\nBy then, the ridge is forecast to be weaker and a turn toward the\nnorthwest is expected by the end of the forecast period. Track\nguidance is in very good agreement, and unanimously, all models\nforecast the gradual turn to the northwest beyond 4 days. The NHC\ntrack forecast is in the middle of the envelope and is not much\ndifferent from the earlier one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.6N 129.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.2N 131.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.1N 134.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 20.0N 138.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 21.0N 146.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 150.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 24.0N 153.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n900 AM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nOlivia is a sheared cyclone with the low-level center well removed\nto the north of the convection. If it wasn't for the earlier\nscatterometer, it would be difficult to assign an intensity of 40\nkt at this time. In fact, Dvorak numbers do not support such wind\nspeeds. For continuity reasons, however, this is the assigned\nintensity until new data become available.\n\nOlivia is currently embedded in a hostile shear environment, but the\nglobal models forecast a change to a more favorable upper-level wind\npattern soon.  On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Olivia to\nbegin strengthening tonight or early Monday, and reach hurricane\nstatus in about 36 hours. This forecast is not different from the\nprevious one and follows the intensity consensus IVCN.\n\nThe circulation continues to be elongated, making it more difficult\nto estimate the initial motion. The best estimate is toward the\nnorthwest or 315 degrees at 6 kt. Most of the global models develop\na ridge to the north of the cyclone, and this flow pattern will\nforce Olivia to turn toward the west-northwest and west with some\nincrease in forward speed.  Track guidance is clustered, and is\nfairly consistent with the turn to the west. The NHC forecast\ncontinues to be very close to the corrected consensus HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.0N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 17.7N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 18.2N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 18.3N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nFlorence's cloud pattern is characterized by a low-level center\npartially displaced to the west of the coldest cloud tops, which\nhave expanded in coverage recently. A blend of the latest satellite\nclassifications supports maintaining an intensity of 45 kt for this\nadvisory package. Little change in strength is expected for much of\nthe forecast period, as Florence will be moving through an\nenvironment characterized by moderate shear and marginal SSTs for\nthe next 3 days. By the end of the forecast period, the SSTs begin\nto warm up, which should result in some restrengthening. The new NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is closest to\nthe SHIPS model forecast.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/15. Florence will be steered\nwest-northwestward or westward for the next several days by the\nAtlantic subtropical ridge. There is a fair amount of north-south\nspread in the guidance, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and HWRF on\nthe right side of the envelope and the ECMWF, ECMWF mean and UKMET\non the left. This spread is likely due to large differences in the\nvertical structure of the cyclone, with the ECMWF and UKMET having a\nmuch weaker vortex at 500 mb compared to the GFS in 3-4 days. Given\nthe difficulty in forecasting these types of structural changes,\nthe NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope and is\nclose to the multi-model consensus aids through the forecast period.\nThis forecast is largely an update of the previous NHC prediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 17.4N  34.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 17.7N  36.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 18.2N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 18.6N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 19.3N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 21.1N  48.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 23.0N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 25.5N  56.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n500 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nThe area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave that\nthe NHC has been tracking for the past few days has become better\norganized today. Strong winds previously associated with an upper-\nlevel trough just west of the system have decreased significantly\nduring the day, and the upper-level flow across the disturbance has\nbecome more anticyclonic. Earlier scatterometer wind data indicated\nthat the system does not yet have a closed surface circulation.\nHowever, the same data indicate that winds of 25-28 kt exist outside\nof thunderstorm activity, with some higher gusts likely present.\nThe initial intensity is being set at a conservative 25 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/13 kt. The global\nmodels are in excellent agreement that the strong subtropical ridge\nto the north of the disturbance will remain entrenched across the\nsoutheastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states throughout the forecast\nperiod. This flow pattern should keep the system moving in a west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward motion until landfall occurs along\nthe central Gulf coast in 60-72 hours. The model tracks are tightly\npacked, so the NHC official forecast track essentially lies down the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope. On the forecast track, the system\nis expected to move across the Florida Keys Monday afternoon, and\nreach the central Gulf Coast by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.\n\nThe aforementioned upper-level anticyclonic has been steadily\nincreasing during the day today, with weak cirrus outflow now\noccurring in all quadrants. The disturbance is forecast to move\nacross the very warm waters of the Gulfstream late tonight and early\nMonday morning where local diabatic heating should enhance deep\nconvection near the mid-level circulation, causing the vortex column\nto build downward to the surface. Once a closed surface circulation\ndevelops, the combination of low to modest vertical shear and SSTs\nof at least 30C along the track should allow for at least slow but\nsteady strengthening. Although the official intensity forecast shows\nweakening at 72 hours, this is due to the system expected to be\ninland at that time. Conditions will favorable for continued\nstrengthening after the 48-h period until landfall occurs, and a\npeak intensity of around 55 kt around 60 hours is possible. The\nSHIPS and LGEM models were the only intensity guidance available for\nthis package, and the official forecast is just a little below an\naverage of those models. The HWRF and HMON models will be\nforthcoming for the next advisory package, so some adjustments to\nthis first intensity forecast may be required as more guidance\nbecomes available.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and\ngusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the\nFlorida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should\nmonitor the progress of this system.\n\n2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the\ncentral Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in\nthose areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this\nsystem will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this\nweek, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall\nfrom a different weather system. Interests in these areas should\nmonitor products from their local National Weather Service office.\n\n3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential\ntropical cylones is generally larger than that for tropical\ncyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 22.7N  77.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  03/0600Z 23.7N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\n 24H  03/1800Z 25.1N  81.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 26.6N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 28.0N  87.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 30.6N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  06/1800Z 33.0N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  07/1800Z 34.0N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nNorman has maintained a very distinct eye with a ring of deep\nconvection all day. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have not\nchanged and still are T6.0 on the Dvorak scale.  On this basis, the\ninitial intensity is being kept at 115 kt in this advisory. The\nhurricane, however, will begin to approach lower SSTs, and intensity\nguidance is responding to the cooler water by gradually weakening\nthe hurricane. The NHC forecast continues to follow the intensity\nconsensus IVCN, and forecasts a gradual weakening beyond 12 hours.\n\nNorman is moving toward the west-northwest at 16 kt. There is a\nstrong subtropical ridge anchored to the north of the hurricane, and\nthis flow pattern will continue to steer the cyclone between the\nwest and west-northwest at the same speed for the next 2 days or so.\nAfter that time, Norman will be near the southwestern edge of the\nridge, and a turn toward the northwest should then begin. Most of\nthe guidance shifted northward at very long ranges, so the NHC\nforecast was slightly adjusted in that direction accordingly.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.1N 130.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 18.7N 133.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 19.5N 136.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 20.5N 142.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 21.0N 147.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 23.0N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 152.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n300 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nOlivia remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level center\nlocated to the north and northeast of the large area of deep\nconvection.  Recent ASCAT data revealed a large area of 35-40 kt\nwinds over the southeastern portion of Olivia's circulation, and is\nthe basis for the initial wind speed of 40 kt.  The global models\nsuggest that the northeasterly shear over the cyclone will not\nabate as quickly as previous indicated, and much of the intensity\nguidance shows less strengthening than before.  The NHC wind speed\nforecast has been lowered to be close to the intensity consensus,\nbut it is not as low as the statistical guidance in order to\nmaintain consistency with the previous official forecast. Olivia is\nforeast to reach cooler waters around day 4 and the tropical\ncyclone should weaken by that time.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.\nOlivia should turn westward as a large ridge builds to the north of\nthe system within the next couple of days. After midweek, Olivia\nshould turn back toward the west-northwest as it reaches the\nwestern portion of the ridge.  The dynamical model guidance\ngenerally agrees with this overall scenario, but there is\ncross-track spread regarding how much latitude the system\ngains over the next couple of days.  The NHC track is near the\nvarious consensus aids and the GFS ensemble mean, but it is not as\nfar north as the latest run of the ECMWF that takes Olivia\nmore northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 17.0N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 17.4N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 20.6N 128.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 22.3N 134.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nFlorence has generally changed little during the past several\nhours.  The cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast\nfeature with the low-level center estimated to be closer to the\nsouthern side of the convection.  All of the satellite intensity\nestimates have held steady and support maintaining the wind speed\nat 45 kt.\n\nAlthough Florence is located in an environment of relatively low\nwind shear, the SSTs beneath the cyclone are cool, around 26 deg C.\nThe tropical storm is expected to move over gradually warmer waters\nbeginning in about 24 hours, but it will also be moving into an\nenvironment of higher shear.  These mixed signals suggest that\nFlorence will likely change little in intensity or weaken\nslightly during the next few days.  By the end of the forecast\nperiod, however, the shear is expected to lessen and by then\nFlorence should be over much warmer waters.  Therefore,\nstrengthening seems likely in the 4 to 5 day time period.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to come\ninto better agreement with the latest guidance.\n\nFlorence is moving west-northwestward at 15 kt steered by a\nmid-level ridge to its northeast.  Although the track models all\nshow a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during\nthe next several days, the north-south spread becomes fairly large\nby the end of the forecast period.  This spread appears to be\nprimarily associated with differences on how strong or vertically\ncoherent each model predicts Florence to be.  Since the NHC forecast\nshows the storm changing little in strength for the next few days,\nthis track prediction lies near the middle of the guidance envelope\nclose to the various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 17.9N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 18.3N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 18.7N  40.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 19.2N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 19.8N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 21.5N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 23.6N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 25.5N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nPotential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n \nThere has been little change in the organization of the disturbance\nsince the previous advisory.  Satellite imagery shows that some new\nconvective bands have formed to the northeast of the trough axis,\nbut there is still no evidence of a closed surface circulation at\nthis time.  The initial intensity remains 25 kt, which is in\nagreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent surface\nobservations.  An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is\nscheduled to investigate the disturbance on Monday to give a better\nassessment of the structure and intensity of the system.\n \nThe disturbance will be moving over warm waters and within\nan area of generally low vertical wind shear.  These conditions\nshould allow gradual development of the system over the next day or\nso.  The global model guidance indicates that the surface trough\nwill sharpen and that a closed surface circulation is likely to\ndevelop in association with the system over the Gulf of Mexico\nwithin the next 24-36 hours.  Once this occurs, the system is\nexpected to continue to gradually strengthen until it reaches the\nnorth-central Gulf coast Tuesday night or early Wednesday.  The\nintensity guidance did not change much this cycle and neither has\nthe latest official forecast.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt.  The disturbance is\nforecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward around the\nsouthwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge that is centered over the\nMid-Atlantic states.  On this heading, the disturbance is\nexpected to pass over the Florida Keys or the southern Florida\npeninsula tomorrow morning, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico\nMonday night before approaching the north-central Gulf coast late\nTuesday or Tuesday night.  The dynamical model guidance is in good\nagreement on this scenario, however, since the system is still in\nthe pre-genesis phase future changes regarding the exact track\nand timing of the onset of hazards are possible.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and\ngusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the\nFlorida Keys tonight and Monday, and interests in those areas should\nmonitor the progress of this system.\n \n2. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the\ncentral Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are possible in\nthose areas Tuesday night and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall from this\nsystem will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast later this\nweek, including areas that are currently receiving heavy rainfall\nfrom a different weather system. Interests in these areas should\nmonitor products from their local National Weather Service office.\n \n3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential\ntropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical\ncyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  03/0300Z 23.4N  78.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  03/1200Z 24.5N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 25.9N  83.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 27.5N  86.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 28.8N  88.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 31.7N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  07/0000Z 33.2N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  08/0000Z 34.2N  95.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n$$\nForecaster Brown\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 PM PDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Norman is maintaining its strength\nthis evening.  The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and a ring\nof cold cloud tops surrounds that feature.  However, the cloud tops\nhave been warming a little during the past few hours.  A blend of\nthe latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding the\ninitial wind speed at 115 kt.\n\nNorman is currently located over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and\nit will be moving over slightly cooler waters during the next\nseveral days. In addition, the global models show the hurricane\nmoving into an increasingly drier air mass and show a significant\nincrease in shear in 4 to 5 days.  All of these conditions suggest\nthat Norman should steadily weaken, and the NHC forecast follows the\ntrend in the model guidance.  This forecast is in best agreement\nwith the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.\n\nNorman continues to move fairly quickly to the west-northwest, with\nthe latest initial motion estimate the same as before, 285/17.  This\nmotion is expected to continue for the next day or so while Norman\nremains steered by a strong subtropical ridge to its\nnorth-northeast.  After that time, a decrease in forward speed and\nthen a gradual turn to the northwest are predicted as Norman moves\nnear the edge of the ridge and approaches a significant weakness\ncaused by a large-scale trough.  The models agree on this overall\nscenario, but they differ on the details of where and when Norman\nmakes the northwestward turn.  The NHC track forecast lies near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope and is near the typically most\nskillful aids, the consensus models.  Based on this forecast, Norman\nis expected to cross into the central Pacific basin in 24 to 36\nhours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 18.6N 132.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.2N 135.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 19.9N 138.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 20.4N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 21.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 23.4N 150.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 26.2N 153.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n900 PM MDT Sun Sep 02 2018\n\nOlivia remains sheared, however the deep convection has inched a\nlittle closer to the center this evening.  The latest satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 45 kt,\nrespectively.  Those estimates, along with the earlier ASCAT data,\nsupport maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt.  The tropical\ncyclone is expected to remain under the influence of moderate\nnortheasterly shear during the next several days, however, most of\nthe intensity guidance insists on some intensification while the\nsystem moves over warm waters.  The new NHC intensity forecast is\nslightly higher than the previous advisory through 24 hours, but it\nis similar to the earlier forecast by showing Olivia attaining\nhurricane status in a couple of days.  There is a large difference\nbetween the latest statistical guidance and the dynamical hurricane\nmodels, with the latter being much more aggressive in strengthening\nOlivia.  Given the current structure of the storm and the lower\nstatistical guidance, the NHC forecast splits the difference and is\nclose to the consensus guidance.  Later in the period cooler waters\nand a more stable airmass should cause the system to weaken.\n\nOlivia is moving slowly west-northwestward or 295/4 kt. The track\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous NHC\nadvisory.  The tropical storm should turn westward as a ridge\nbuilds to the north of the system within the next couple of days.\nAfter midweek, Olivia should turn back toward the west-northwest as\nit reaches the western portion of the ridge.  There continues to be\nsome spread in the track guidance, and the NHC forecast is once\nagain near the model consensus to account for the differences.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 17.1N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 17.3N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 17.8N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 18.0N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 19.3N 123.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 20.8N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 22.3N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nThe structure of Florence has recovered overnight. Several recent\nmicrowave images indicate that the tropical storm's center is still\ndislocated to the south of most of the associated convection, but\nconvective banding has increased. There is also evidence that\nFlorence has developed better defined low-level inner-core.\nSatellite intensity estimates have increased and now range from 45\nto 60 kt. As a compromise of the various estimates, the initial\nintensity has been raised slightly to 50 kt, but its worth noting\nthat this increase is within the noise level of our ability to\nobserve the intensity of tropical storms over the open ocean.\n\nBased on SHIPS diagnostics, the southwesterly shear affecting\nFlorence could remain moderate for the next 12 h, and some slight\nintensification is possible. However, by 24 h, an increase in the\nshear should kick off a gradual weakening trend. By the end of the\nforecast period, the tropical storm is forecast to re-intensify\nwhile it moves over warmer SSTs and the environmental shear\ndecreases. Given the improved current structure of Florence, the new\nofficial intensity forecast shows slight intensification for the\nfirst 12 h. Beyond that time, the models are in good agreement and\nthe NHC forecast is near the middle of the relatively tight\nintensity guidance envelope.\n\nThe tropical storm is still moving west-northwestward, at an\nestimated 14 kt. A continued west to west-northwest motion is\nforecast by all the global models for the next couple of days. By\nthe end of the forecast period, nearly all of the guidance shows a\nturn toward the northwest, and the main source of uncertainty in\nthe track forecast continues to be exactly when and to what extent\nFlorence will make this turn. At this point I have no reason to\ndepart from the various consensus models, and the track forecast is\nvery close to the previous advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 18.0N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 18.3N  39.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 18.7N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 19.3N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 20.0N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 22.2N  51.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 24.5N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 26.0N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   3...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n500 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nCorrected motion in second paragraph\n\nThe system is gradually becoming better organized with some\nincreased convective banding features.  However, surface and radar\ndata suggest that a well-defined center of circulation has not yet\nformed.  The initial intensity is set at 25 kt in agreement with the\nlatest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  An Air Force Reserve\nUnit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the\nsystem later this morning, and should provide a better estimate of\nits intensity and structure.  Global model predictions show\na closed circulation forming within 12 to 24 hours, so the official\nforecast calls for tropical cyclone status later today.  Although\nthe system should move over the very warm waters of the eastern and\nnorth-central Gulf of Mexico during the next 36 hours, the model\nguidance is not very aggressive about intensification.  This may be\ndue to some moderate shear as indicated by the SHIPS model output.\nThe official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and\nat the upper end of the numerical guidance suite.\n\nThe disturbance appears to have picked up some forward speed, and is\nnow moving at around 300/14 kt.  A west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward motion is likely, along the southwestern periphery of\na mid-level anticyclone, until landfall along the northern Gulf\ncoast.  The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model\nconsensus and is just slightly to the right of and faster than the\nprevious one.\n\nGiven the proximity of the 36-hour forecast point to the coast, it\nis time to change the Tropical Storm Watch to a Warning.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven will bring heavy rainfall and\ngusty winds to portions of the Bahamas, South Florida, and the\nFlorida Keys today, and interests in those areas should\nmonitor the progress of this system.\n\n2. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the\ncentral Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in\nthose areas beginning late Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall from this\nsystem will affect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next\nfew days, including areas that have already received heavy rainfall\nfrom a different weather system.  Interests in these areas should\nmonitor products from their local National Weather Service office.\n\n3. Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for potential\ntropical cyclones is generally larger than that for tropical\ncyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 24.5N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  03/1800Z 25.7N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 27.2N  84.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 28.8N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 30.4N  89.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 33.0N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  07/0600Z 34.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  08/0600Z 35.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nIts possible that Norman has peaked, perhaps permanently this time.\nCloud tops have notably warmed around the eye, which itself has\nbecome less distinct in IR imagery overnight.  The initial intensity\nhas been lowered to 110 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak\nfinal-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.\nBased on trends over the past hour or two, it's possible Norman has\nweakened even more than indicated.  All of the intensity guidance\nsuggests that Norman should steadily weaken over the next several\ndays due to a combination of marginal SSTs, moderate shear, and a\ndrier surrounding environment, though this was the case last night\nas well shortly before Norman quickly re-intensified to major\nhurricane strength.  Since another sudden period of intensification\ndoesn't appear imminent, the new NHC intensity forecast is very\nclose to the consensus through day 5, and only minor changes were\nmade from the previous advisory.\n\nThe estimated initial motion is now 285/17 kt.  Norman should\ncontinue moving very quickly toward the central Pacific over the\nnext 24 hours as it is steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the\nnorth.  By later this week, all of the global models forecast\nthat the hurricane will slow down, and then turn toward the\nnorthwest toward a weakness in the ridge.  There is still a fair\namount of spread in the track guidance, particularly regarding the\nspeed of Norman after it begins to turn northwestward around day 4\nor 5, so confidence is in this portion of the track forecast is low.\nThe new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly south of the\nprevious advisory for the first 72 h, following the HCCA and TVCX\nconsensus aids, but is fairly similar after that.  Based on the\ncurrent forecast, Norman is expected to cross into the central\nPacific later today.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 19.0N 134.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 23.5N 151.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 27.0N 153.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n300 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\n10 to 15 kt of northeasterly shear, noted by the UW-CIMSS shear\nanalysis and the Decay SHIPS Intensity model, continues to impede\nOlivia's cloud pattern.  A blend of the Dvorak satellite intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier SATCON estimate support\nholding the initial intensity at 40 kt.\n\nOnly modest short-term strengthening is expected over the next day\nor so due to the persistent shear.  Afterwards, a weakening trend\nshould commence as a result of stronger shear, decreasing sea\nsurface temperatures, and a less than favorable thermodynamic\nenvironment.  It's worth noting, however, that the Decay SHIPS\nindicates a longer, slower intensification period through day 3,\nwhile the better performing IVCN and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus\nguidance reflect a shorter period of intensification, only 24 hours,\nfollowed by a weakening trend through day 5.  Subsequently, these\nmodels no longer indicate that Olivia will become a hurricane, and\nneither does the official forecast.  A compromise of the previous\nadvisory, and a blend of the consensus models was used as a basis\nfor this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt.\nOlivia should continue moving westward during the next couple of\ndays within the mid-level steering flow of a strengthening ridge to\nthe north.  By day 3, Olivia should turn back toward the\nwest-northwest as it rounds the southwestern periphery of the\nridge.  Only a minor adjustment to the south of the previous\nadvisory was made in accord with the various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 17.1N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 17.2N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 17.3N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 17.5N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 17.9N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 19.1N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 20.7N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 22.1N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-03 12:30:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Special Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n830 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nSurface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,\nalong with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate\nthat the disturbance has developed a closed surface circulation and\na well-defined center. Recent observations from a Weatherflow site\nat Carys Fort Reef and radar data support increasing the maximum\nwinds to at least 40 kt. As a result of these data, the system has\nbeen upgraded to Tropical Storm Gordon, the seventh named system of\nthe 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. An Air Force Reserve Unit\nreconnaissance aircraft is enroute to investigate Gordon.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt and the previous forecast\ntrack remains unchanged. The intensity forecast was adjusted upward\nin the first 24 to 36 hours to account for the initial increase in\nintensity. Some additional adjustments may be required after the\nreconnaissance aircraft completes its mission and provides more\ndetailed information on the stricture and intensity of Gordon.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions to\nportions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a Tropical\nStorm Warning is in effect for these areas.\n\n2. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for portions of the\ncentral Gulf Coast, and tropical storm conditions are expected in\nthose areas beginning late Tuesday.  Heavy rainfall from Gordon will\naffect portions of the central Gulf Coast over the next few days,\nincluding areas that have already received heavy rainfall from a\ndifferent weather system.  Interests in these areas should monitor\nproducts from their local National Weather Service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1230Z 25.1N  80.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 25.7N  82.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 27.2N  84.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 28.8N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 30.4N  89.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 33.0N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  07/0600Z 34.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  08/0600Z 35.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nWhile Florence's structure improved overnight, the cloud tops have\nwarmed and the deep convection has thinned during the past several\nhours. The 12Z satellite intensity estimates range from 55 to 65 kt,\nbut given recent trends the initial intensity is set at the low end\nof that range at 55 kt, although this is quite uncertain given the\nrecent fluctuations in the cloud pattern.\n\nUW-CIMSS satellite diagnostics indicate that around 20 kt of\nsouthwesterly shear is affecting Florence, while the SHIPS analysis\nbased on the GFS fields shows only about 10 kt. SSTs warm from this\npoint forward along the forecast track, but shear is expected to\nbe steady or strengthen, and the mid-level relative humidity values\ndecrease to around 50 percent during the next 48 to 72 hours. Given\nthese mixed factors, the NHC intensity forecast shows some\npossibility for strengthening in the next 12 hours, followed by a\nslow decay through 72 hours. Some restrengthening is forecast late\nin the period as SSTs warm above 28C and the atmospheric moisture\nincreases. The NHC forecast is close to or a bit above the latest\nIVCN consensus aid and about 5 kt above the previous NHC forecast\nthrough 96 hours.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/14. Florence will be steered\ngenerally west-northwestward for the next 72 hours by the Atlantic\nsubtropical ridge, followed by a northwestward turn at days 4 and 5.\nWhile there is large spread in the guidance between the HWRF on the\nright and the UKMET on the left, the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensemble\nmeans are more tightly clustered near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope. Since the overall track forecast reasoning has not\nchanged, the new NHC forecast remains near the middle of the\nguidance. This forecast is a bit north of the previous NHC track\ngiven the initial position and lies a little south of the consensus\naids to reflect less influence of the outlier HWRF model to the\nnorth.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 18.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 18.6N  40.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 19.1N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 19.9N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 20.8N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 23.0N  52.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 25.0N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 27.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nSurface observations from the Florida Keys and southeast Florida,\nalong with Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that\nGordon has continued to become organized this morning. The center\nof the cyclone passed over Key Largo between 1100-1200 UTC,\nproducing a west wind in Islamorada and also at an observing site\nin Florida Bay. Doppler velocity data and surface observations\nsupport an intensity of 40 kt for this advisory. An Air Force\nReserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating\nGordon.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/14 kt. The latest model\nguidance has shifted slightly to the right, but this is likely due\nto the more northerly initial position. Other than that, the models\nremain tightly packed and agree on a general west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward motion for the next 48 hours right up until landfall\nas the strong ridge to the north of Gordon moves little. The new NHC\nforecast track was adjusted a little to the right of the previous\nadvisory track, but not as far to the east as some of the model\nguidance out of respect for the reliable ECMWF deterministic run,\nwhich is located on the southern edge of the guidance and shows\nlandfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River, a solution that is\nalso supported by the new 0600Z short-range UKMET model run.\n\nGordon's appearance in both radar and satellite imagery has\ncontinued to improve over the past several hours. The GFS- and\nECMWF-based SHIPS models indicate that westerly to northwesterly\nvertical wind shear of about 10 kt is allegedly affecting Gordon,\nbut there are no indications of that in satellite imagery that I\ncan see. The cirrus outflow has continued to expand in all\nquadrants, so the analyzed westerly shear is likely an artifact of\nthe small circulation being positioned so close to the strong trough\nlocated its west. Since Gordon will be moving over sea-surface\ntemperatures near 30 deg C during the next 36-48 hours, and be near\nor underneath an upper-level anticyclone, steady strengthening seems\nlikely. It is possible that Gordon could peak as a Category 1\nhurricane after 36 hours, just before landfall occurs. For that\nreason, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the\ncentral Gulf Coast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous\nadvisory, and is close to a blend of the consensus models\nHCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon will bring heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions\nto portions of South Florida and the Florida Keys today and a\nTropical Storm Warning remains in effect for these areas.\n\n2. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge to\nportions of the central Gulf Coast and a Storm Surge Warning has\nbeen issued from the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi-\nAlabama border. Residents in these areas should listen to advice\nfrom their local officials and all preparations to protect life\nand property should be rushed to completion.\n\n3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for\nportions of the central Gulf Coast. Tropical storm conditions are\nexpected to reach those areas late Tuesday, with hurricane\nconditions possible in the watch area.\n\n4. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern\nMississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8\ninches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 25.3N  81.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 26.5N  83.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 28.1N  86.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 29.9N  88.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 31.3N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  06/1200Z 33.9N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  07/1200Z 34.8N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n120H  08/1200Z 37.6N  95.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  26...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nCorrected to remove G-IV flight reference for this afternoon\n\nSatellite images indicate that Norman is weakening.  The eye is no\nlonger apparent on infrared imagery, and the cloud tops are warming\nthroughout the central dense overcast.  The initial wind speed is\nreduced to 95 kt, which is close to a blend of the Dvorak CI numbers\nfrom TAFB and SAB.  Continued weakening is likely over the next\nseveral days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, light or\nmoderate shear, and a dry mid-level environment.  The new forecast\nis very similar to the previous one, except lower in the short term\nto account for the current intensity.\n\nNorman has turned westward and is still moving at about 17 kt.  A\nfast westward motion is anticipated over the next few days while a\nlarge subtropical ridge holds firm over the central Pacific Ocean.\nHowever, a weakness in the ridge from 150W-155W should cause Norman\nto turn more northwestward after day 3.  Model guidance is showing\nconsiderable spread at long range, with the UKMET and its ensemble\ncloser to Hawaii, while almost all of the other guidance is much\nfarther northeast.  There continues to be a westward shift in the\nguidance, so the official forecast has been shifted westward at\nlong range.  It should be noted, however, that there isn't much\nsupport for the UKMET solution in the rest of the guidance, so it\nseems to be an outlier at this time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 19.3N 136.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 19.7N 139.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 20.0N 142.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 20.2N 144.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 20.3N 146.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 21.3N 150.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 27.5N 154.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n900 AM MDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nThere has been a pretty significant change with Olivia overnight,\nwith the center either moving into or reforming southward under the\ncentral dense overcast.  Microwave data indicate that a developing\ninner core is present as well, along with a notable increase in\ncurved banding.  Subjective Dvorak estimates have risen to 55 kt,\nwhich agrees well with the latest CIMSS-SATCON estimates, so the\ninitial wind speed is raised to that value.\n\nWhile the cyclone remains over warm water for the next couple of\ndays, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, which should keep\nthe intensification rates of the cyclone in check, along with some\nmid-level dry air.  Slow strengthening seems most likely, and the\nofficial forecast is raised from the previous one, mostly due to the\nhigher initial intensity.  It should be noted that the corrected-\nconsensus guidance is even higher, so the intensity forecast could\nbe conservative.  Olivia should move over more marginal waters in a\nfew days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long range.\n\nOlivia appears to be moving westward at about 6 kt, but this is\npretty uncertain due to the recent center jump.  The storm should\nmove faster toward the west and eventually toward the west-\nnorthwest during the next several days as it encounters a strong\nridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  Almost all of the guidance is\nsouth of the previous model cycle, which is consistent with a\nstronger cyclone feeling the effects of a deep-layer ridge, so the\nlatest NHC forecast is shifted in that direction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 16.5N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 16.5N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 16.6N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 16.9N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 17.3N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 18.6N 126.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nFlorence appears a little better organized than earlier today.  Deep\nconvection is slightly stronger near and to the north of the center,\nand the cloud pattern still resembles a central dense overcast.  A\nblend of the latest Dvorak classifications suggests a slightly\nhigher wind speed, and accordingly, the initial intensity is nudged\nupward to 60 kt.\n\nThe strong tropical storm is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 13\nkt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  The global models\nall show a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge during the\nnext several days due to a series of troughs moving across the\nAtlantic.  In response, Florence is expected to gradually turn\nnorthwestward with a slight reduction in forward speed during the\nnext several days.  While there remains a fair amount of spread in\nthe models from 72 to 120 h, there has been a notable trend to the\nright, or north, during the past few model cycles.  The official\ntrack forecast is adjusted slightly to the right as well, trending\ntoward the latest consensus aids.\n\nLittle change in strength is expected through tonight as Florence\nremains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind shear\nconditions.  However, nearly all of the intensity models show a slow\nweakening trend during the next few days.  This weakening is in\nresponse to a gradual increase in southwesterly or westerly shear.\nBeyond a few days, however, the shear is expected to decrease and\nFlorence will be over much warmer waters.  Therefore, slow\nstrengthening is shown in the 3 to 5 day period.  This forecast is\nslightly higher than the previous one at the longer range, but is\notherwise unchanged.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 18.6N  39.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 19.0N  41.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 19.6N  43.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 20.4N  46.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 21.5N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 23.7N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 26.0N  55.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 28.0N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n500 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nData from an earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission, along\nwith Doppler velocity data from the Miami radar, indicate that\nGordon has strengthened a little more, with some these data\nsupporting an intensity of about 50 kt. However, since the earlier\n5-n mi-diameter eye has eroded and inner-core convection has become\nsomewhat ragged, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. The latest model guidance\nis still in excellent agreement on Gordon maintaining a west-\nnorthwestward to northwestward motion for the next 48-72 hours right\nup until landfall as a strong ridge to the north of the cyclone is\nforecast to remain locked in place over the southeastern U.S. and\nmid-Atlantic states. Although the guidance has shifted slightly back\nto the left, no appreciable changes were made to the previous\nforecast track since the models have been 'windshield-wipering' back\nand forth over the past 24 hours. The new NHC track forecast is\nsimilar to or a little north of the latest consensus models.\n\nOverall, Gordon's presentation in both radar and satellite imagery\nhas steadily improved since the previous advisory. Although the\ninner-core structure has eroded somewhat, outer banding features\nhave improved and now extend as far north as central and northern\nFlorida. The GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models continue to\nindicate that westerly to northwesterly wind shear of 10-15 kt is\nexpected to affect Gordon for the next 36 hours, a flow pattern that\nwould generally hinder development. However, the global models'\nupper-level wind fields show Gordon remaining near or underneath a\nsynoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone, a more favorable pattern\nthat supports at least steady strengthening. Since Gordon will be\nmoving over very warm sea-surface temperatures of about 30 C, the\ncyclone is forecast to reach hurricane strength in 24-36 hours, just\nbefore landfall. For that reason, a Hurricane Warning has been\nissued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. The NHC intensity\nforecast is a little above the previous advisory, and is close to a\nblend of the consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and\nhurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a\nStorm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents\nin these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.\nAll preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to\ncompletion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in\nthe warning areas Tuesday afternoon or evening.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern\nMississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8\ninches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.\n\n3. Rainfall will continue across portions of South Florida and the\nFlorida Keys through early Tuesday, where totals could reach as high\nas 8 inches.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 26.2N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 27.3N  84.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 28.9N  87.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 30.6N  89.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  05/1800Z 32.1N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  06/1800Z 34.1N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  07/1800Z 35.5N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  08/1800Z 38.2N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nVisible satellite images continues to depict a fairly symmetric\nhurricane with a ragged eye, however, a 1615 UTC SSMIS microwave\noverpass indicated that the eye was open over the southeastern\nportion of the circulation.  Dvorak data T-numbers are slowly\ndecreasing, and a consensus of the various objective and subjective\nDvorak CI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt.\nNorman is forecast to move over marginally warm SSTs and into a\ndrier mid-level environment during the next couple of days.  Since\nthe shear is expected to remain fairly low over the hurricane,\nweakening is anticipated to be gradual through mid-week.   After\nthat time, a significant increase in southwesterly vertical wind\nshear should cause a more rapid rate of filling.  The new forecast\nis similar to the previous advisory and is a blend of the HFIP\ncorrected consensus model and the IVCN intensity consensus aid.\n\nNorman is moving quickly westward or 280/17 kt.  The hurricane is\nbeing steered by a large subtropical ridge to the north and it\nshould keep Norman on a westward heading with some decrease in\nforward speed over the next couple of days.  A weakness in the\nridge near 150W should cause Norman to turn west-northwestward,\nthen northwestward after 72 hours.  There is still considerable\nspread in the model guidance as to exactly when and where the turn\nwill take place.  The NHC track forecast is again close to the\nconsensus models at the longer range, but the overall guidance\nenvelope changed little, so the updated NHC track forecast is\nsimilar to the previous track forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 19.5N 138.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 19.8N 141.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.1N 143.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 20.2N 146.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 20.4N 147.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 21.9N 150.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 24.6N 152.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 27.8N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Olivia Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nA ragged eye has formed with Olivia during the past several hours,\nalthough the convection on the northern side isn't very persistent.\nMicrowave data indicate that an eyewall is mostly formed beneath the\ncentral dense overcast, albeit rather thin.  Intensity estimates\ncontinue to rise and support 60 kt for this advisory.\n\nOlivia has a few days remaining over warm waters with light or\nmoderate shear in the forecast.  Similar to a situation with Hector\nabout a month ago, the shear might be misdiagnosed in the SHIPS\nmodel, with the bulk of the shear likely coming from northeasterly\nwinds that avoid the core of the cyclone.  Thus, steady\nstrengthening is expected, and if the inner core becomes more\nestablished, rapid intensification is a possibility.  The intensity\nforecast is raised from the previous one, but remains below the\nhigher corrected-consensus aids. Olivia should move over more\nmarginal waters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated\nat long range.\n\nRecent fixes show that Olivia is moving westward at about 7 kt.  The\nstorm should move faster toward the west and eventually toward the\nwest-northwest during the next several days as it is steered by a\nstrong ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean.  This appears to be a\nhigh-confidence forecast since the model spread is fairly small, and\nthe only adjustment needed to the previous forecast is a slight\nsouthward change at day 5.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 16.6N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 16.7N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 16.8N 118.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 17.0N 120.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 128.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 20.7N 133.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nAlthough Florence continues to produce a fairly circular area of\ndeep convection, microwave images have revealed that there is a\nsignificant southwest-to-northeast vertical tilt of the\ncirculation due to southwesterly shear.  The initial intensity is\nheld at 60 kt, using a blend of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and\nSAB.  This estimate is a little below the latest automated Dvorak\nvalues from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\n\nThe strong tropical storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285\ndegrees, at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  The\nstorm is expected to gradually turn northwestward with a decrease\nin forward speed during the next several days as it moves\ntoward a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge.  There\nremains a fair amount of spread in the guidance, especially in the\n3- to 5-day time period, but the consensus aids have changed little\nthis cycle.  Therefore, no significant changes were made to the\nprevious forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\nLittle change in strength is expected through early Tuesday as\nFlorence remains over marginally warm waters and in moderate wind\nshear conditions.  Slight weakening is expected during the middle\npart of the week due to a gradual increase in southwesterly or\nwesterly shear.  Beyond that time, however, the shear is expected to\ndecrease and Florence will be over much warmer waters.  Therefore,\nslow strengthening is shown at the end of the forecast period.\nThis forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good\nagreement with the HCCA guidance.\n\nThe 34- and 50-kt initial wind radii have been expanded outward\nbased on recent ASCAT passes.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 18.9N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 19.4N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.1N  44.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 21.1N  47.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 22.1N  49.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 24.5N  53.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 26.8N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 28.4N  57.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nWSR-88D radar data from Tampa shows that the small inner core of\nGordon has lost some organization during the past few hours, and\nGOES-16 satellite imagery and recent aircraft fixes indicate that\nthe low-level center is located near the southwestern edge of the\nmain convective mass.  This suggests that there may be some light to\nmoderate westerly shear affecting the cyclone.  The Air Force\nReserve reconnaissance aircraft recently measured peak 850-mb\nflight-level winds of 57 kt, and SFMR winds of 50-55 kt.  A blend\nof these data yields an initial wind speed estimate of 50 kt.\n\nA UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicates that there\nis about 10-15 kt of westerly shear over the system.  The SHIPS\nguidance shows a slight relaxation of the shear during the next\n12-18 hours while the system moves over the warm waters of the Gulf\nof Mexico, which should allow for some strengthening.  However,\nGordon is a small tropical cyclone and subtle changes in shear\n(both up and down) can result in fairly quick intensity changes for\nsystems like this.  The NHC intensity forecast assumes that shear\nwill not be prohibitive and that Gordon will become a hurricane\nbefore reaching the northern Gulf coast.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours, then\nfollows the HFIP corrected consensus after landfall which shows\nGordon weakening rapidly over land.\n\nGordon is moving west-northwestward at about 15 kt.  The tropical\nstorm is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to northwestward\nheading during the next few days while it moves around the\nsouthwestern portion of a large deep-layer ridge centered over the\nMid-Atlantic states.  After that time, the cyclone should decelerate\nas it moves around the western periphery of the ridge.  The track\nguidance continues to be tightly clustered through 72 h, and no\nsignificant changes were required to the previous NHC track\nforecast.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and\nhurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a\nStorm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents\nin these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.\nAll preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to\ncompletion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in\nthe warning areas Tuesday afternoon.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect southern Alabama, southern\nMississippi and Louisiana, where totals could reach as high as 8\ninches. This rainfall could cause flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 26.9N  84.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 28.3N  86.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 30.0N  88.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 31.6N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  06/0000Z 32.9N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  07/0000Z 34.6N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  08/0000Z 36.5N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/0000Z 39.5N  93.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nNorman continues to slowly weaken.  Satellite images indicate that\nthe banding features are not as well organized as they were earlier\ntoday, and the cloud tops have warmed some during the past few\nhours.  The Dvorak classifications have decreased, and a blend of\nthe latest estimates supports lowering the initial intensity to 80\nkt.\n\nNorman continues to move quickly westward at 18 kt steered by a\nstrong subtropical ridge to its north-northeast.  This general\nheading, but with a significant decrease in forward speed, is\nexpected during the next day or two while Norman nears the edge of\nthe ridge.  Thereafter, a turn to the northwest and then\nnorth-northwest is expected while Norman moves around the ridge and\ntoward a large deep-layer trough over the northern Pacific.  There\nremains a fair amount of spread on where and when Norman makes the\nturn, but the guidance did not change much overall this cycle.\nTherefore, only small changes were made to the previous advisory,\nand this forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nNorman could weaken a little more overnight and on Tuesday, but the\nguidance shows the intensity flattening out in the 24- to 48-hour\ntime period.  After that time, however, a sharp increase in shear,\ncooler waters, and a drier air mass should cause more significant\nweakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the\nprevious one and in line with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nNow that Norman has crossed into the central Pacific basin, future\nadvisories on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific\nHurricane Center.  These forecasts can be found on the web at\nhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 19.8N 140.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 20.0N 142.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.1N 144.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 20.2N 147.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 20.6N 148.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 22.5N 151.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 25.3N 153.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 28.1N 155.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 PM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018\n\nOlivia continues to strengthen with convection deepening near the\ncenter, and the latest microwave passes show a nearly complete\neyewall underneath the central dense overcast.  Dvorak estimates\nfrom TAFB/SAB are a consensus 65 kt, and that will be the initial\nwind speed.\n\nA bit surprisingly, Olivia has intensified 25 kt over the past 24\nhours.  The current northeasterly shear apparently has not been\nenough to cause the strengthening rate to decrease, although some\nmodels are still suggesting the shear will disrupt the hurricane\nover the next couple of days.  After inspecting the environmental\nwinds, it appears that most of the shear will avoid the inner core,\nso the official forecast is raised from the previous one, lying near\nthe upper edge of the guidance.  This forecast still feels a bit\nconservative, given the explosive nature of many of the 2018\neastern Pacific cyclones.  Olivia should move over more marginal\nwaters in a few days, and a gradual weakening is indicated at long\nrange.\n\nA gradual acceleration continues with Olivia, now moving westward\nat about 8 kt.  A strengthening ridge over the eastern Pacific\nshould steer the cyclone westward and west-northwestward at an\nincreasing forward pace over the next several days.  The model\nguidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC\ntrack forecast is basically just an update of the previous\nprediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 16.8N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 16.9N 117.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 17.1N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 17.4N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 18.0N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 19.7N 129.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 21.5N 135.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 23.0N 140.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nFlorence's cloud pattern has changed very little during the past\nseveral hours, with the exception of a possible small Central Dense\nOvercast developing just to the east of the center.  An earlier\nAMSR2 overpass revealed a rather obvious tilt toward the\neast-northeast, indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear.\nThe initial intensity is held a 60 kt, and is supported by the\nDvorak subjective and objective T-numbers.\n\nFlorence should exhibit little change in strength during the next\n24 hours or so, as the cyclone traverses marginally warm sea surface\ntemperatures and is influenced by modest west-southwesterly shear.\nSlight weakening is expected during the mid- forecast period as the\nshear gradually increases with time.  Afterward, the upper-level\nwind environment should become a little more favorable and, at the\nsame time, Florence will be moving back over warmer SSTs.\nConsequently, the cyclone should gradually strengthen through day 5.\nThis forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in good\nagreement with the NOAA-HCCA guidance.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt.\nThe cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward for the\nnext 48 hours by a mid- to upper tropospheric ridge anchored to\nthe north, followed by a northwestward turn around the 72 hr period\nas it enters a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge.  A\nrather large spread in the global and hurricane models remains\nparticularly beyond day 4, however, the consensus models and the\nglobal ensemble means have have been fairly consistent from run to\nrun.  This forecast is just a bit to the north of the previous\nadvisory and just south of the consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 19.3N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 19.9N  43.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 20.8N  45.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 21.8N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 22.9N  50.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 25.2N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 27.1N  55.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 29.1N  57.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nGordon has changed little in organization on geostationary\nsatellite images or on the WSR-88D radar presentation over the past\nseveral hours.  The storm has a small CDO with convective banding\nfeatures primarily over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.\nOverall the cloud pattern is indicative of moderate westerly shear\nover the system, likely associated with an upper-level trough near\nthe central Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane\nHunter aircraft investigated Gordon a few hours ago and reported\nmaximum SFMR-measured surface winds of 54 kt.  On this basis the\nintensity had been adjusted to 55 kt, which is somewhat above the\nlatest Dvorak estimates.  It is assumed that the shear will not be\nstrong enough to inhibit at least some strengthening before\nlandfall, so the tropical cyclone is still forecast to become a\nhurricane later today.  The official forecast, prior to landfall, is\nclose to the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and near the upper end\nof the guidance suite.  Gordon should weaken rapidly after landfall\nin the lower Mississippi Valley region.\n\nThe motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt.  There is\nlittle or no change to the NHC track prediction or forecast\nreasoning from the previous advisory.  Gordon is expected to move\nalong the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area\nand make landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast\nwithin 24 hours.  After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to move\nnorthwestward, along the western side of the high, at a reduced\nforward speed.  Late in the forecast period Gordon, or its\npost-tropical remnant, should turn northward to north-northeastward\nas it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track\nforecast is near the model consensus and very close to the previous\nNHC track.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and\nhurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a\nStorm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect.  Residents\nin these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.\nAll preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to\ncompletion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in\nthe warning areas this afternoon.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida\nPanhandle, southern  Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,\nwhere totals could reach as high as 12 inches.  This rainfall could\ncause flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 27.7N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 29.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 30.7N  89.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  05/1800Z 32.2N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  06/0600Z 33.4N  92.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  07/0600Z 34.9N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/0600Z 37.0N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/0600Z 40.0N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nA recent SSMIS overpass indicated a banding eye inner core\nstructure with improved deep convective outer bands over the\nsouthern semicircle.  A 0432 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass was\nused to adjust the wind radii for this advisory package.  A blend\nof the subjective satellite intensity estimates support a slight\ninitial intensity increase to 70 kt.\n\nOlivia has about 24-36 hours or so remaining over warm SSTs with\nmarginally favorable upper wind conditions.  Therefore strengthening\nis forecast for the next day or so, similar to the HCCA and IVCN\nconsensus models.  After that time, The cyclone is expected to\ntraverse slightly cooler oceanic surface temperatures, and gradual\nweakening is indicated through day 5.  The NHC forecast is based on\nthe above consensus models and is similar to the previous advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/10 kt.  A\nbuilding subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast\nto induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with\nincreasing forward speed during the next several days.  The model\nguidance is tightly packed on this solution, and the latest NHC\ntrack forecast is basically just an update of the previous\nprediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 16.9N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 17.0N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 17.2N 120.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 17.7N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 18.4N 125.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 20.1N 131.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 21.9N 137.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 23.0N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nFlorence's structure has gradually increased in organization, with\nSSMIS passes from a few hours ago revealing the development of a\nmid-level microwave eye.  Dvorak estimates have responded in\nkind--TAFB is up to T4.0, SAB is at T4.5, and the objective ADT is\nin between at T4.4.  Since there still appears to be moderate\nsouthwesterly shear inducing some tilt to the cyclone and\ndisrupting the infrared satellite pattern, the initial intensity is\nraised conservatively to 65 kt, making Florence a hurricane.\n\nThe current motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt, with\nFlorence positioned near the southwestern edge of the subtropical\nridge.  The steering pattern ahead of Florence is rather complicated\nand will be evolving over the next few days.  A large and complex\nmid-/upper-level trough located northeast of the Leeward Islands is\nexpected to give way to the development of two upper-level highs\ncentered near the Greater Antilles and southwest of the Azores, with\nFlorence slowing down and turning northwestward between these new\nfeatures.  Despite this complex pattern, the spread in the track\nmodels is less than normal, which increases the confidence in the\nNHC track forecast for the next 5 days.  There is some spread which\nbegins to develop around day 5, with the ECMWF model moving Florence\na little faster toward the north while the GFS maintains a slower\nspeed and keeps the system to the south.  The updated NHC track\nforecast has been nudged slightly to the east of the previous\nforecast on days 4 and 5, close to the TVCX consensus but not as far\nas the HCCA and ECMWF models.  There is still too much model spread\nafter day 5 to speculate what Florence might do beyond the official\nforecast period.\n\nDespite Florence becoming a hurricane, the southwesterly shear\naffecting the cyclone is expected to increase over the next day or\ntwo, which should prevent further intensification.  In fact, the\nincreasing shear, as well as mid-level relative humidities below 50\npercent, should cause weakening between 24 and 72 hours.  After 72\nhours, decreasing shear and warmer sea surface temperatures should\nfoster some re-intensification, with Florence expected to reattain\nhurricane intensity by day 5.  The intensity guidance is in good\nagreement, and the NHC forecast is very close to a blend of HCCA,\nthe Florida State Superensemble, and the ICON consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 19.7N  42.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 20.3N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 21.3N  46.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 22.4N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 23.6N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 25.6N  52.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 27.5N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 29.5N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nAfter an earlier disruption of the inner-core convection due to some\nsoutherly wind shear, Gordon has since developed a band of deep\nconvection very near the well-defined center noted in both NOAA\nGOES-16 high-resolution satellite imagery and coastal NOAA WSR-88D\nDoppler radars.  In addition, there has been a significant increase\nin lightning activity during the past couple of hours in the inner\ncore, and Doppler radar velocities have increased to more than 45 kt\nat 25,000 ft in the band of convection near the center. NOAA and Air\nForce Reserve reconnaissance aircraft further indicate that Gordon\nhas maintained a small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi,\nand that SFMR surface winds of 53-55 kt exist in the northeastern\nquadrant. These data support an intensity of 55 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now toward the northwest at a\nslightly slower forward, or 305/13 kt. There is basically no change\nto the previous NHC forecast track reasoning. Reconnaissance fixes\ncontinue to fall along the previous forecast track, and the latest\nmodel guidance remains tightly packed and on top of the previous\nNHC forecast. As a result, there is high confidence that Gordon will\nmake landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast in about\n18 hours. After landfall, steering currents are forecast to weaken,\nresulting in Gordon slowing down considerably, which will enhance\nthe heavy rainfall potential. By Friday, an approaching cold front\nand associated mid-/upper-level trough are expected to break down\nthe subtropical ridge, allowing Gordon to turn northward and\neventually turn northeastward on Saturday and merge with the cold\nfront. The new official track forecast is near the model consensus\nand essentially on top of the previous NHC track.\n\nThe aforementioned inner-core changes that have been occurring could\nbe a harbinger that Gordon is finally starting to intensify. Intense\nlightning activity inside the small RMW is an indication of strong\nupdrafts, which can enhance the strengthening process. Although the\nGFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast northwesterly shear of\n10-15 kt, the explicit upper-level wind fields in the GFS, ECMWF,\nand UKMET models indicate that the 200-mb flow is forecast to become\nsoutheasterly and diffluent across Gordon in the next 12 h or so,\nwhich would act to enhance the development of inner-core convection.\nAs result, the official intensity forecast maintains continuity and\nshows Gordon becoming a hurricane before landfall, which is above\nthe guidance through that time. Once Gordon moves inland, the small\ncirculation should spin down fairly quickly, and that portion of the\nforecast closely follows the various consensus-model intensity\nguidance. By 120 h, Gordon's circulation is expected to merge with a\ncold front over the Mississippi Valley region.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and\nhurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a\nStorm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. Residents\nin these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida\nPanhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,\nmuch of eastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could\nreach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding\nin portions of these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 28.5N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 29.8N  88.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 31.5N  90.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  06/0000Z 32.8N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  06/1200Z 33.7N  92.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  07/1200Z 35.4N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1200Z 37.7N  93.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/1200Z 40.9N  90.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 AM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nOlivia has become better organized since the last advisory, with\nconventional satellite imagery indicating the formation of a 25 n\nmi wide eye and a surrounding cold ring of cloud tops in the\neyewall.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have\nincreased to 90 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for this\nadvisory.  This burst of rapid intensification has occurred even\nthough the analyzed easterly shear in the SHIPS model and analyses\nfrom CIMSS is in the 15-20 kt range.\n\nHow much additional intensification will occur is uncertain.  The\nintensity guidance suggests that continued shear and decreasing sea\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track will allow only about\n12 h of additional strengthening, and most of the guidance forecasts\nonly modest strengthening during this time.  However, it is unlikely\nthat the current rapid intensification will stop that quickly.\nBased on this, the new intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity\nof 100 kt in 12 h at the upper edge of the intensity guidance, and\nit is possible Olivia could get stronger.  After 24 h, the cooler\nsea surface temperatures and entrainment of dry air should cause a\ngradual weakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease.\n\nThe initial motion remains 275/10.  As noted previously, a\nbuilding subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast\nto induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with increasing\nforward speed during the next several days.  The model guidance\nsupports this scenario with a tight clustering, and the new NHC\ntrack forecast is again an update of the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 17.0N 118.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 17.2N 119.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 17.4N 122.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 18.8N 127.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 20.5N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 23.0N 143.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nDespite being over marginally warm water and in an environment of\nmoderate west-southwesterly shear, Florence's intensity has\nincreased during the day.  The hurricane has a cloud-filled eye in\nvisible imagery, and the central dense overcast is becoming more\nsymmetric.  Based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5 from TAFB and SAB,\nand a SATCON estimate of 77 kt, the initial intensity is now,\nsomewhat surprisingly, 75 kt.  Since the current intensification\ntrend may not be over, the official forecast calls for Florence to\nstrengthen just a little more during the next 6-12 hours.  Even\nthough the hurricane will be moving over progressively warmer\nwaters, increasing vertical shear and dry air in the middle levels\nof the atmosphere should induce some weakening in the 24-72 hour\ntime frame.  Lower shear after 72 hours will likely allow Florence\nto regain hurricane strength by the end of the forecast period.\nThe NHC intensity forecast is primarily adjusted to account for the\nrecent strengthening trend, and is closest to the Florida State\nSuperensemble and HCCA guidance.\n\nFlorence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt.  This\ntrajectory is expected to continue through 36 hours while the\nhurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical\nridge.  After 36 hours, Florence is expected to turn northwestward\nand slow down as it enters a break in the ridge.  The track models\nare in good agreement and show little spread through 48 hours.  On\ndays 3-5, the biggest outlier is the UKMET, which lies to the south\nof the guidance suite. In fact, the bulk of the models, including\nthe deterministic GFS and ECMWF, are all now showing a more\ndefinitive poleward motion by day 5.  While the official NHC track\nforecast reflects this thinking, there is still considerable spread\namong the associated global model ensembles, and the longer-term\nforecast should be considered low confidence.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 20.3N  43.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 21.0N  44.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 22.1N  46.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 23.2N  48.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 24.3N  50.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 26.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 27.5N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 29.5N  56.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n400 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nGordon has been undergoing another convective bursting phase during\nthe past few hours, with a sharp increase in Doppler velocity\nvalues noted between 9,000-12,000 ft. Some peak velocity values\nhave been in excess of 80 kt, but average values have been around\n65-67 kt, which supports an advisory intensity of 60 kt. Another\nreconnaissance mission will be conducted in Gordon in a few hours,\nwhich provide additional intensity and pressure data.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/13 kt. There remains no\nsignificant change to the previous NHC forecast track or reasoning.\nThe new model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, but not\nenough to make any appreciable changes to the previous forecast\ntrack. As a result, Gordon is expected to move northwestward toward\nthe Mississippi coastline, and the cyclone will make landfall in\nthat area around 0300 UTC. After landfall, steering currents are\nstill expected to weaken, causing Gordon to slow down considerably.\nThe slower forward speed, which will be near 5 kt at times, will act\nto enhance the heavy rainfall potential. By Friday, a mid- to\nupper-level trough and a cold front are forecast to cause a break\nint the subtropical ridge, allowing Gordon to turn northward on\nFriday, and move northeastward on Saturday. Gordon's remnant\ncirculation is expected to merge with a cold front by Sunday. The\nnew official track forecast is close to a blend of the consensus\nmodels HCCA, FSSE, and TVCA,\n\nGordon still has another 6 hours or so over warm waters near 30C,\nwhich in combination with an upper-level environment of diffluent\nsoutheasterly upper-level flow and increased surface convergence due\nto land interaction will provide a brief window of opportunity for\nGordon to reach hurricane strength before landfall. Once Gordon\nmoves inland, the small circulation is expected to spin down\nquickly, with Gordon becoming a remnant low by 48 hours.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and\nhurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast, where a\nStorm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. The highest\nstorm surge is expected along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama\nfrom the Mouth of the Pearl River to Dauphin Island tonight and\nearly Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions and storm surge will also\naffect portions of the western Florida Panhandle.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida\nPanhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,\nnortheastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could\nreach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding\nin portions of these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 29.4N  87.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 30.7N  89.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  05/1800Z 32.2N  90.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  06/0600Z 33.2N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  06/1800Z 34.0N  93.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  07/1800Z 35.7N  94.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1800Z 38.1N  93.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/1800Z 41.0N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 PM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nOlivia has continued to strengthen and now has a well-defined 15-20\nn mi wide eye inside a central dense overcast.  A complex of outer\nbands is also occurring in the southwestern semicircle.  The various\nsatellite intensity estimates have increased into the 100-110 kt\nrange, and thus the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt.  It\nshould be noted that the current intensification has occurred in an\napparent environment of 10-20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear,\nas indicated by the SHIPS model and analyses from CIMSS.\n\nAs with the earlier forecast, how much additional intensification\nwill occur is uncertain.  The intensity guidance suggests that\ncontinued shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the\nforecast track will allow 12 h or less of additional strengthening,\nand the guidance again forecasts only modest strengthening during\nthis time.  Given the persistence of the rapid intensification, the\nintensity forecast will not stop intensification that abruptly, and\nit now calls for a peak intensity of 110 kt in 12 h at the upper\nedge of the intensity guidance.  It is still possible that Olivia\ncould get stronger than this.  After 12-24 h, the cooler sea surface\ntemperatures and entrainment of dry air should cause gradual\nweakening even though the shear is forecast to decrease. This part\nof the intensity forecast lies a little above the intensity\nconsensus.\n\nThe initial motion is 270/10, and the short-term motion may be a\nlittle to the south of due west.  As noted previously, a\nbuilding subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast\nto induce a westward and west-northwestward motion with an\nincreasing forward speed during the next several days.  Near the\nend of the forecast period, a more westward motion is possible.\nThe model guidance again supports this scenario with a tight\nclustering, and the new NHC track forecast is similar to, but\nslightly south of the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 16.9N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 17.0N 120.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 18.1N 125.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 22.5N 139.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 23.0N 144.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nGOES-16 imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become better\ndefined during the last several hours, with even some mesovortices\nin the eye present on the shortwave infrared channel.  Satellite\nintensity estimates continue to rise, and the initial wind speed is\nset to 85 kt, just below the latest TAFB estimate of 90 kt.\n\nFlorence remains on a west-northwestward course at 300/10 kt.  This\ngeneral course is expected to continue through 36 or 48 hours while\nthe hurricane remains near the southwestern edge of the subtropical\nridge.  After that time, the forecast becomes more uncertain,\ndepending on the presence of a narrow mid-level ridge over the\nnorth-central Atlantic Ocean.  A look at the ensemble guidance\nshows a bifurcation developing by day 5, with the ECMWF favoring\na more northward turn, and the UKMET ensembles showing a stronger\nridge and a continuation of a west-northwest track.  The new NHC\nforecast is adjusted westward at long range, in line with the\ncorrected-consensus aids, but don't be surprised if this forecast\nundergoes some large changes in the next few cycles, given the\nsplit in the guidance.\n\nThis intensity forecast is also difficult.   Florence certainly has\nexceeded expectations during the last day or so, with the hurricane\non the verge of rapidly intensifying during the last 24 hours\ndespite a marginal environment.  Some more strengthening is\ncalled for in the short term to reflect the current trend.\nHowever, the global models continue to insist that southwesterly\nshear will increase over the next couple of days which, in\ncombination with considerable dry air aloft, should cause some\nweakening.  Later tomorrow, a slow weakening trend should begin and\ncontinue through 48 hours, although not weakening as much as shown\nin the past advisory.  This can't be considered a high-confidence\nprediction in light of what Florence has done so far.  On Friday, an\nupper-level low could cut off to the south of the cyclone, which\nwould lessen the shear near Florence, and the hurricane should be\nmoving over steadily increasing SSTs. Restrengthening is forecast at\nlong range, and it wouldn't be surprising if the new NHC prediction\nturns out to be too low.  It is best to be conservative, however,\nsince the track uncertainty is increasing by the end of the\nforecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 20.7N  43.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 21.5N  45.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 22.6N  47.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 23.7N  49.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 24.7N  50.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 26.0N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 27.3N  55.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 29.0N  57.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nAircraft and radar imagery shows that the center of Gordon is\nmaking landfall just west of the Alabama-Mississippi border.  The\nradar imagery has shown an increase in convection around the center\nwithin the past couple of hours, and Doppler velocities have\nincreased to 65-75 kt at about 2500 feet.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter\naircraft has measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 63 kt.\nThese data support an initial intensity of 60 kt.  A NOAA Coastal\nMarine Observing site on Dauphin Island, Alabama has recently\nreported sustained winds of 49 kt with a gust to 63 kt.  Once the\ncenter moves inland, Gordon should rapidly weaken and it is\nforecast to become a tropical depression on Wednesday morning.\n\nGordon moved a little right of the previous forecast track this\nevening, but the most recent aircraft fixes suggest the center has\njogged back toward the left. The longer-term motion estimate is\n315/12 kt.  A large deep-layer ridge located over the eastern\nUnited States is forecast to steer Gordon northwestward at a slower\nforward speed during the next couple of days.  After that time, the\ncyclone should turn northward, then northeastward around the\nwestern periphery of the ridge.  The updated NHC track is again\nclose to a blend of the various consensus aids, but is a little\nright of previous forecast for the first 24-36 hours, primarily due\nto the slightly more eastward initial position.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and\nhurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast, where a\nStorm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect. The highest\nstorm surge is expected along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama\nfrom Biloxi to Dauphin Island tonight and early Wednesday. Tropical\nstorm conditions and storm surge will also affect portions of the\nwestern Florida Panhandle.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida\nPanhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,\nnortheastern Louisiana, and southern Arkansas, where totals could\nreach as high as 12 inches. This rainfall will cause flash flooding\nin portions of these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 30.3N  88.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 31.5N  89.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  06/0000Z 32.7N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  06/1200Z 33.5N  92.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  07/0000Z 34.3N  92.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/0000Z 36.0N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/0000Z 38.3N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  10/0000Z 41.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 PM PDT Tue Sep 04 2018\n\nOlivia is displaying a well-defined eye this evening embedded within\na circular central dense overcast.  The rapid intensification seems\nto have leveled off, since Dvorak estimates have increased only\nslightly, but still support a higher wind speed of 110 kt.\n\nModerate easterly shear, gradually decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures, and dry air aloft along the forecast track of Olivia\nwill likely cause the hurricane to slowly weaken by late Wednesday.\nThe new intensity forecast is slightly higher than the last one,\nnear or a bit above the model consensus.  The forecast is on the\nhigher side of the guidance because I don't feel particularly\nconfident about this weakening, given the poor performance of the\nguidance for this hurricane so far.\n\nOlivia is moving a little south of due west, 265/10.  A\nbuilding subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is forecast\nto cause the hurricane to move westward and west-northwestward\nwith increasing forward speed during the next several days.\nNear the end of the forecast, model guidance is showing a stronger\nridge, and a westward turn is possible.  The guidance envelope has\nshifted southward on this cycle, and the official NHC prediction is\nadjusted in that direction.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 16.9N 121.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 17.5N 124.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 18.2N 126.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 19.1N 129.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 20.9N 135.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 22.0N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 22.5N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nConventional satellite enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a\n0511 UTC GMI color composite microwave pass reveal improved inner\ncore structure with impressive outer banding over the eastern\nsemicircle.  Dvorak intensity estimates have again increased, and\nthe initial intensity is once more increased to 90 kt, which also\nagrees with the latest SATCON analysis.\n\nThis intensity forecast is still a bit murky.  The deterministic\nmodels show increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a less than\nfavorable mid-tropospheric thermodynamic environment affecting the\ntropical cyclone over the next 48 hours.  This less-than-conducive\nenvironment should induce weakening during this time frame.\nThereafter, and through the remaining forecast, most of the\nmodels show a mid- to upper-level low developing to the south of\nFlorence in the base of the mid- Atlantic deep-layer trough, which\nshould promote a somewhat more favorable diffluent upper wind\npattern.  This more conducive upper wind pattern, and increasing sea\nsurface temperatures, is expected to cause Florence to restrengthen.\nThe NHC forecast is a little bit higher than the previous one\nbetween the 48 and 96 hr periods to agree more with the IVCN and\nNOAA-HCCA consensus forecasts.\n\nFlorence is estimated to be moving northwestward, or 305/11 kt,\nwhich appears to be a temporary trochoidal eyewall wobble.  A turn\nback toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and this\ngeneral motion is expected to continue through day 4 while the\nhurricane is steered by the southwestern periphery of the\nsubtropical ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, Florence is\nexpected to turn northwestward and slow down as it enters a break in\nthe ridge.  The ECMWF model track forecast has shifted significantly\ntoward the left this evening, closer to the other global models and\ntheir ensemble means, indicating less steering influence from the\npredicted growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  Subsequently,\nan adjustment to the left of of the previous advisory, beyond 48\nhours, was made in order to nudge closer to the guidance suite and\nthe consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 21.4N  44.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 22.2N  46.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 23.2N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 24.2N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 24.9N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 25.6N  54.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 26.8N  56.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 28.7N  58.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n400 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nGordon is moving farther inland and continues to weaken.  Surface\nsynoptic observations suggest that the cyclone is now of, at most,\nminimal tropical storm strength.  These tropical-storm-force winds\nmay be occurring over a small inland area near the center.\nContinued weakening is expected, and Gordon should become a\ntropical depression later this morning.\n\nGordon continues moving northwestward, with an initial motion\nestimate of 325/12.  The cyclone should continue on a northwestward\nheading with a decrease in forward speed, along the southwestern\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge, for the next couple of days.  Later\nin the period, Gordon's remnant is forecast to turn northward\nand northeastward with increasing forward speed as it approaches\nthe mid-latitude westerlies north of 40N.  the official forecast\ntrack is close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCA.\n\nAll coastal watches and warnings associated with Gordon are being\ndiscontinued at this time.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida\nPanhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi,\nnortheastern Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and\nIllinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through early\nSaturday.  This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions\nof these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 31.5N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 32.4N  90.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  06/0600Z 33.4N  91.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  06/1800Z 34.1N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  07/0600Z 34.8N  93.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/0600Z 36.7N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/0600Z 39.0N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  10/0600Z 42.0N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nGOES-15 imagery and a recent METOP-B AMSU overpass indicate that\nOlivia's eyewall has collapsed in the northwest quadrant.\nAdditionally, the eye temperature has warmed considerably.\nSubjective and Objective T-numbers have decreased and support a\nlowered intensity of 100 kt for this advisory.\n\nModerate easterly shear, gradually decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures, and drier, more stable air in the middle portions of\nthe atmosphere along the forecast track of the cyclone should\ncause the hurricane to continue to slowly weaken.  The only\nadjustment made to the NHC intensity forecast was a slight increase\nat day 4 and 5 to agree more with the consensus intensity guidance.\n\nOlivia's current motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/11 kt.\nA building subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific and to the\nnorth of Olivia is should induce a westward and west-northwestward\nwith increasing forward speed during the next several days.\nToward the end of the forecast period, global models continue to\nshow a stronger ridge, and a turn back toward the west is shown\nin the advisory.  The official forecast is similar to the forecast 6\nhours ago, and is close to the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN, which are\ntypically better-performing guidance models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 16.9N 121.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 17.2N 122.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 17.8N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 18.6N 128.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 19.6N 130.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 21.3N 136.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 22.2N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 22.8N 146.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nRemarkably, Florence has continued to strengthen.  The hurricane\nhas a compact central dense overcast with cold cloud tops completely\nencircling a clear, well-defined eye.  With the improved structure,\nsubjective Dvorak estimates have increased to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB\nand T6.0/115 kt from SAB, while the latest objective UW-CIMSS ADT\nestimate is T5.8/110 kt.  The initial intensity is therefore set at\n110 kt as a blend of these numbers, with Florence having become a\nmajor hurricane earlier this morning.\n\nGiven the estimated maximum winds, Florence has been rapidly\nintensifying since yesterday, an event that was not foreseen by any\nintensity models, nor forecasters.  Diagnostics from the SHIPS\nmodel and UW-CIMSS shear analyses have been consistently showing\nsouthwesterly shear of 20-25 kt in the vicinity of Florence, but it\nis possible that those schemes are averaging over a larger area\nthan might be reasonable given the hurricane's small size.  Florence\nhas apparently been able to find a small pocket of relatively low\nshear, and with waters becoming progressively warmer, the hurricane\nhas strengthened significantly more than anticipated.  This makes\nthe intensity forecast incredibly uncertain.  SHIPS actually shows\nthe shear increasing over the next 24 hours, but global model\nfields suggest that the hurricane may still be able to continue\nwithin the protected pocket of lower shear for the next several\ndays.  As a result, the NHC official forecast keeps Florence's\nintensity well above the available guidance, which all show the\nhurricane weakening over the next day or two.  The new NHC\nprediction follows this trend and also shows some weakening, but\nthis is a low-confidence forecast.  Either way, Florence is\nexpected to remain a hurricane throughout the 5-day period.\n\nThe track forecast also has its challenges.  The initial motion\nestimate is northwestward, or 305/11 kt.  It now appears that\nstronger upper-level ridging may take shape to the north of\nFlorence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn back\ntoward the west-northwest from 36-72 hours.  After 72 hours, a\nbreak in the ridge should allow Florence to turn back toward the\nnorthwest, but the bulk of the track models have trended westward\nsince yesterday.  In light of these trends, the NHC official track\nforecast has been shifted westward on days 4 and 5, but not quite\nas far as the various model consensus aids.  It is worth stressing\nthat there is still a significant amount of spread among the GFS\nand ECMWF ensemble members by the end of the forecast period, and\njust like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is of low\nconfidence.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 22.0N  45.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 22.7N  47.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 23.8N  49.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 24.7N  50.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 25.1N  52.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 25.7N  54.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 27.0N  57.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg/Rhome\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gordon","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gordon Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018\n1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nSurface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that\nGordon continues to weaken as it passes near Jackson, Mississippi,\nand the initial intensity has been reduced to a possibly generous\n25 kt. Additional weakening is expected as the cyclone moves farther\ninland, and it is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area\nin about 48 h. The remnant low is then expected to become\nextratropical as it merges with a frontal zone over the central\nUnited States by Saturday. Although Gordon has weakened, the threat\nof heavy rainfall and flooding will continue for the next few days.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/12.  Gordon should continue\nnorthwestward with a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 h\nas it moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.  After\nthat, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to turn northward and\nnortheastward as it recurves into the westerlies.  The new forecast\ntrack is similar to the previous one.  However, during the first\n48 h it lies to the east of the various consensus models due to a\nwestward shift in the guidance since the last advisory.\n\nThis will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane\nCenter on Gordon.  Future information on Gordon can be found\nin Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center\nbeginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32\nKWNH, and on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Even though Gordon is weakening, heavy rainfall will continue to\naffect the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, central\nMississippi, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with\nisolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible.  This rainfall will\ncause flash flooding across portions of these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 32.3N  90.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  06/0000Z 33.3N  91.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  06/1200Z 33.9N  92.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  07/0000Z 34.5N  93.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  07/1200Z 35.3N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/1200Z 37.0N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  09/1200Z 39.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  10/1200Z 43.0N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 AM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nOlivia is still slowly weakening, with a continued erosion of the\neyewall convection in the northwestern quadrant.  The various\nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in\nthe 90-100 kt range, and the initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt\ngiven the decay in the cloud pattern since the previous advisory.\n\nOlivia is currently experiencing moderate easterly shear, but the\nguidance suggests this should decrease during the next 12-24 h.\nTherefore, the major influences on the intensity should be gradually\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and\nentrainment of dry air.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement\nthat Olivia should weaken through the forecast period, and based on\nthis the new intensity forecast is an update of the previous\nforecast.  There is a chance that Olivia could weaken faster than\ncurrently forecast during the first 24 h if the current convective\ntrend continues.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/11.  There is no change to the forecast\nphilosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only minor\nadjustments to the forecast track.  A building subtropical ridge\nover the eastern Pacific to the north of Olivia should induce a\ngeneral west-northwestward motion with increasing forward speed\nduring the next several days.  Toward the end of the forecast\nperiod, global models continue to show a stronger ridge that would\nturn Olivia back to a westward motion.  The track guidance is in\ngood agreement with this scenario, although the UKMET and the UKMET\nensemble mean show a motion to the north of the other models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 17.1N 122.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 19.9N 132.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 22.0N 142.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 22.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nFlorence has continued to intensify during the day, with colder\ncloud tops completely encircling a clearer eye. Both subjective and\nobjective Dvorak estimates have unanimously increased to T6.0/115\nkt, and on this basis, the initial intensity is raised to 115 kt,\nmaking Florence a category 4 hurricane.\n\nFlorence appears to be right along the southern edge of a zone of\nstronger vertical shear and continues to defy the intensity\nguidance, which has consistently been predicting weakening.  That\nsaid, the last few satellite images indicate that the eye may be\nbecoming slightly disrupted by the shear.  Since the shear is\nanticipated to increase during the next day or so, gradual weakening\nis shown in the short-term official forecast, which lies along the\nupper end of the guidance through 48 hours.  Beyond 48 hours,\nvertical shear is anticipated to weaken, which would allow Florence\nto intensify and potentially regain major hurricane status. However,\nFlorence will need to thread the needle between areas of stronger\nshear for this to happen, and there is significant uncertainty in\nthe intensity forecast.  The new official intensity forecast is\nlittle changed from before except to adjust upward to account for\nthe higher initial intensity.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 305/11 kt.\nStrong upper-level ridging is forecast to strengthen north of\nFlorence over the next few days, forcing the hurricane to turn\ntoward the west-northwest through about 48 hours.  Track guidance is\ngood agreement during this period, and the official forecast is\nessentially an update to the previous one.  Beyond day 2, a break\nforms in the ridge, which results in a weakening of the steering\ncurrents, a slowdown in Florence's forward speed, and a turn back\ntoward the northwest. The new official forecast is shifted south a\nbit on days 3-5 to account for recent model trends and is closest to\nthe TVCN consensus.\n\nIt should be noted that there is considerable model ensemble spread\nand run-to-run variability for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given\nthe large uncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to\nspeculate what, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East\nCoast next week. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large\nswells emanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on\nFriday, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the\nisland. Swells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by\nearly next week.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 22.7N  46.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 23.5N  48.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 24.5N  49.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 25.2N  51.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 25.5N  52.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 26.0N  55.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 27.0N  57.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 29.0N  60.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg/Rhome\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 PM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nWhile satellite imagery shows that the erosion of the eyewall\nconvection is less than seen 6 h ago, the various satellite\nintensity estimates indicate that Olivia continues to slowly\nweaken.  Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity\nis reduced to 85 kt.  Recent satellite data indicate that the wind\nand wave fields associated with Olivia are larger than previously\nanalyzed, and they have been revised for this advisory.\n\nOngoing moderate easterly shear over Olivia should diminish during\nthe next 12 h or so.  After that, the major influences on the\nintensity should be gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures\nalong the forecast track and entrainment of air that gets\nprogressively drier through the forecast period.  The intensity\nguidance is still in good agreement that Olivia should weaken\nthrough the forecast period, and the new intensity forecast again\nfollows this trend.  Overall, the intensity forecast is in best\nagreement with the SHIPS model and the IVCN intensity consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is now 285/11.  A large deep-layer ridge seen in\nwater vapor imagery to the north of Olivia should steer the\nhurricane generally west-northwestward for the next 2-3 days.\nAfter that time, the ridge builds westward to the northeast and\nnorth of the Hawaiian Islands, and this should cause Olivia to\nturn westward.  The track guidance remains in good agreement with\nthis scenario, although the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean are\nstill showing a motion to the north of the other models.  The new\nforecast track is similar to the previous track, and it generally\nlies between the track consensus model TVCN and the HFIP corrected\nconsensus model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 17.3N 123.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 17.9N 125.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 18.6N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 19.5N 130.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 20.4N 133.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 21.5N 138.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 22.0N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 22.5N 148.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nIt appears that southwesterly shear is finally affecting Florence.\nThe cloud pattern has become asymmetric this evening, with the\nnortheastern quadrant growing at the expense of the southwestern\none, along with warming cloud tops noted across the central dense\novercast.  Satellite intensity estimates are a bit lower than\nbefore, so the initial wind speed is reduced to 110 kt.\n\nThe current shear is forecast to persist by the global models during\nthe next day or two until an upper-level low cuts off to south of\nFlorence, which will likely reduce the shear.  This, in combination\nwith much warmer waters in the path of the hurricane, should set the\nstage for restrengthening. At long range, a rather large upper-level\nanticyclone is forecast to form near Florence, which would provide\nample opportunity for the hurricane to regain its former strength\nand grow in size.  Thus, the official forecast shows slow weakening\nin response to the initial shear, then levels off, with a\nsignificant increase in strength predicted by day 5.  This solution\nis very close to the previous NHC advisory, but not quite as high as\nthe HWRF and HMON models at long range.\n\nFlorence has been moving more to the right during the past several\nhours, likely due to the vortex attempting to stay vertically\naligned in the face of the southwesterly shear, but a longer-term\nmotion is 310 degrees at 10 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to\nstrengthen to the north and northwest of Florence, causing the\nhurricane to turn west- northwestward by Friday and even westward by\nthe weekend.  It appears that a mid-latitude trough over the\nnorthwestern Atlantic in a few days will likely miss Florence, with\nthe only perceivable effects on the hurricane being a decrease in\nforward speed.  The net result is that the model guidance continues\nto trend westward at long range, and the official forecast follows\nsuit, lying just north of the model consensus in deference to the\nECMWF deterministic model and ensemble mean.\n\nIt should be noted that there is still considerable model ensemble\nspread for Florence's track beyond day 5. Given the large\nuncertainty at these time ranges, it is far too soon to speculate\nwhat, if any, impacts Florence may have on the U.S. East Coast next\nweek. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells\nemanating from the hurricane will reach Bermuda beginning on Friday,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents on the island.\nSwells from Florence could also reach the U.S. East Coast by early\nnext week.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 23.4N  47.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 24.2N  48.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 25.0N  49.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 25.5N  51.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 25.7N  53.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 26.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 27.2N  58.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 29.0N  62.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 PM PDT Wed Sep 05 2018\n\nOlivia continues to have a large and distinct eye, but the\nsurrounding convection has not changed in the past 6 h or so. Dvorak\nnumbers are steady, and a blend of objective and subjective\nestimates yield an initial intensity of 85 kt.  The shear is not a\nproblem for Olivia since it is forecast to remain low through the\nentire 5-day period.  However, in about a day, the SSTs along\nOlivia's track will decrease resulting in a gradual weakening\nof the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\nprevious one, and follows the intensity consensus.\n\nThere has been no change in track, and Olivia is still moving\ntoward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical\nridge is anchored north of the hurricane, and this flow pattern\nshould continue to steer Olivia on the same general track for he\nnext 5 days.  By the end of the forecast period, the ridge is\nexpected to expand westward, forcing the cyclone to move westward.\nTrack models are in an excellent agreement, and the guidance\nenvelope remains tightly clustered for the next 3 days.  After\nthat time, although the envelope widens a little bit, models still\nindicate a westward-moving cyclone.  The NHC forecast is in the\nmiddle of the envelope and very close to the multi-model aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 17.7N 124.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 21.8N 139.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nSouthwesterly shear continues to affect Florence.  Since the last\nadvisory, the cloud pattern has become more asymmetric, and cloud\ntops surrounding the ragged eye have warmed.  AMSR imagery around\n0430 UTC indicated that the hurricane's eye is tilted slightly\nsouthwest to northeast with height, but the low- to mid-level\ninner-core was mostly intact.  Based on an average of Final-T and\nCI numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been lowered\nto 100 kt, and objective estimates are even lower.\n\nGiven the wind shear and current appearance of Florence, additional\nweakening in the short-term seems likely, and all of the intensity\nguidance agrees.  From 24-72 h, the spread increases with the\nstatistical models generally showing continued gradual weakening for\nanother day or two, while the dynamical models show little change or\nslight restrengthening.  By day 5, all of the guidance calls for\nFlorence to restrengthen.  The guidance envelope and consensus is\nlower with this model cycle, but the NHC intensity forecast has only\nbeen adjusted slightly lower, mainly in the first 72 h of the\nforecast.  The official forecast is now a little above the IVCN\nintensity consensus and HCCA at most forecast hours, generally\nfavoring the stronger solution of the dynamical models.\n\nFlorence has continued to track northwestward, and the initial\nmotion is 315/10 kt.  The cyclone is still forecast to gradually\nturn westward over the next 48 h, in response to a building\nmid-level ridge to its north.  Beyond that time, a mid-latitude\ntrough over the northwestern Atlantic could create enough of a\nweakness in the ridge to steer the hurricane farther north, closer\nto Bermuda, as shown by the latest GFS.  However, the ECMWF and\nUKMET suggest that the ridge will not be significantly affected, and\nFlorence will move more westward.  The ensembles from the GFS and\nECMWF do not clearly favor one solution over another, and in fact\nmany members track Florence somewhere in-between.  While little\nchange was made to the previous forecast and the new official track\nforecast remains close to the various consensus aids, the model\nspread has increased and confidence in the forecast is low.\n\nThere is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's\ntrack beyond day 5. Given the large uncertainty at these time\nranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts\nFlorence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week. Regardless of\nFlorence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane\nwill reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 24.1N  47.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 24.8N  49.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 25.4N  50.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 25.6N  52.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 25.6N  53.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 26.1N  56.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 27.2N  59.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 29.0N  63.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nThe cloud tops surrounding Olivia's 25 n mi diameter eye have cooled\nsomewhat over the past several hours, indicative of a little\nstrengthening.  The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt, which\nis a blend of lower subjective Dvorak estimates and higher objective\nSATCON and ADT estimates.  Olivia will soon be moving over somewhat\ncooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level air mass.  This should lead\nto gradual weakening over the next few days.  The official intensity\nforecast is very close to the simple and corrected intensity\nconsensus models, IVCN and HCCA.  Olivia has a fairly large eye\nwith limited banding features, but the numerical guidance indicates\na low likelihood that the system could become an annular hurricane.\nNonetheless, if that transition were to occur, Olivia would likely\nmaintain a higher intensity for the next few days than indicated\nhere.\n\nNo significant changes have been made to the NHC track prediction\nor forecast reasoning.  Olivia continues moving west-northwestward\nor 285/12 kt.  A well-defined deep-layer ridge should remain in\nplace to the north of the hurricane for the next several days, and\nthis ridge is expected to build westward during the forecast\nperiod.  As a result, Olivia should gradually turn from its\nwest-northwestward heading to a westward course by the weekend.\nThe track guidance models remain in excellent agreement on this\nscenario.  The official forecast is close to the dynamical model\nconsensus and the latest ECMWF prediction.  This is essentially an\nupdate of the previous NHC track.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 18.1N 125.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-09-06 12:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Special Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n500 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nOlivia has continued to intensify during the past several hours and\nhas re-gained major hurricane status.  This special advisory is\nbeing issued to increase the initial intensity to 105 kt and to\nincrease the intensity during the first 72 h of the forecast.\nThere is no change to the track forecast or the later portions of\nthe intensity forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1200Z 18.2N 126.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 18.5N 127.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 19.4N 130.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 20.2N 132.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 21.7N 140.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 22.0N 145.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 22.0N 149.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":29,"Date":"2018-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nVertical shear has increased since yesterday, which has caused a\ndegradation of Florence's structure and a decrease in its maximum\nwinds.  The cloud-filled eye has been eroded over the past hour or\nso, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric, with the\nlow-level circulation peeking out from under the higher clouds.\nDvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB have fallen to T5.0-5.5 (90-100\nkt), while the objective numbers from UW-CIMSS support 70-90 kt.\nThe initial intensity is set at 90 kt, near the middle of this wide\nrange of estimates.\n\nThe intensity forecast has been somewhat of a self-defeating\nprophecy due to the nuances of the environmental shear.  Even though\nFlorence was able to rapidly intensify yesterday in an area just\nsouth of a zone of strong shear, the hurricane's stronger-than-\nexpected intensity caused it to move more poleward, into that\nstronger shear.  Right now, shear analyses range anywhere from\n25-30 kt, and the latest available guidance suggests that this\nlevel of shear should continue for another 12-24 hours.  As a\nresult, continued weakening is forecast over the next day or so.\nAfter 36 hours, Florence is likely to encounter an upper-level\nenvironment that is more conducive for reintensification.  The NHC\nforecast is adjusted downward toward the newest consensus aids,\nespecially during the first 48 hours, but it still shows Florence\nreaching major hurricane strength again by days 4 and 5.\n\nFlorence's forward motion has slowed just a little to 9 kt toward\nthe northwest (315 degrees).  A mid-level ridge is building to the\nnorth, which is likely to cause the hurricane to turn westward by\n36 hours, with that motion continuing through about day 3.  After\nthat time, there is still considerable uncertainty in the evolution\nof the steering pattern over the western Atlantic, especially on day\n4.  On one hand, the GFS and HWRF dig a strong shortwave trough over\nAtlantic Canada by Monday, creating a break in the ridge which would\nallow Florence to turn northwestward.  On the other hand, the ECMWF\nand UKMET both have weaker troughs and maintain stronger ridging\nover the northwestern Atlantic, allowing Florence to maintain a\nwestward or west-northwestward course.  All the models show a\nmid-level high over the western Atlantic by Tuesday.  Due to typical\nbiases among these models in the part of the Atlantic, we prefer to\nbe between the GFS and ECMWF solutions at this time, which places\nthe official NHC track forecast close to the TVCN multi-model\nconsensus and just north of HCCA.\n\nThere is still considerable model ensemble spread for Florence's\ntrack beyond day 5.  Given the large uncertainty at these time\nranges, it is far too soon to speculate what, if any, impacts\nFlorence may have on the U.S. East Coast next week.  Regardless of\nFlorence's eventual track, large swells emanating from the hurricane\nwill reach Bermuda beginning on Friday and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 24.6N  48.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 25.2N  49.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 25.6N  51.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 25.6N  52.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 25.7N  54.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 26.3N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 28.0N  59.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 29.5N  65.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 AM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Olivia has a well-defined 20 n mi\nwide eye, although the eye is not quite as distinct as it was at\nthe time of the previous special advisory.  The eye is inside of a\ncentral dense overcast with eyewall cloud tops as cold as -80C.\nSatellite intensity estimates are currently in the 100-115 kt\nrange.  Based on these, the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, and\nit is possible that this is a little conservative.  The hurricane\nis now in a light vertical shear environment and is showing good\ncirrus outflow in the southwestern semicircle.\n\nThe intensity guidance has been consistent in saying that Olivia\nshould weaken due to a combination of decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of dry air.\nThe hurricane has not yet followed the guidance, and the current\nstructure and convective trends suggest that this round of\nintensification may not be finished.  After 12 h, Olivia should move\nnorth of the 26C isotherm, and the cyclone should mostly traverse\nsea-surface temperatures of 25-26C for the remainder of the forecast\nperiod.  This development should start a weakening trend.  The new\nintensity forecast allows for 12 h of additional strengthening,\nfollowed by a gradual weakening that follows the overall trend of\nthe intensity guidance.  However, the new forecast lies at the upper\nedge of the guidance, and thus most of the forecast intensities are\nhigher than those in both the previous special and regular\nadvisories.\n\nWater vapor imagery shows a large deep-layer ridge to the north of\nOlivia, and the large-scale models forecast the western end of the\nridge to build westward during the next several days.  This pattern\nshould steer the cyclone west-northwestward for the next 48 h or\nso, followed by a westward motion from 72-120 h.  The track guidance\nis in good agreement with this scenario, and the guidance is more\ntightly clustered than it was 24 h ago.  The new forecast track is\nsimilar to the previous track through 48 h, then it is nudged a\nlittle to the south of the previous track from 72-120 h.  The new\ntrack lies close to the various consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 18.4N 127.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 18.9N 129.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 19.8N 131.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 20.5N 134.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 21.2N 137.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 21.5N 142.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 21.5N 146.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 21.5N 150.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":30,"Date":"2018-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nVertical shear has taken its toll on Florence today as evidenced by\na continued degradation of the overall cloud pattern.  The\ncirculation appears tilted, with the low-level center partially\nexposed to the southwest of the deep convection.  Subjective and\nobjective Dvorak Current Intensity (CI) numbers have fallen, and a\nblend of the various estimates supports an initial intensity of 70\nkt.\n\nThe intensity forecast is relatively straightforward in the\nshort-term as shear is expected to remain strong, which should\ncontinue Florence's weakening trend, potentially taking the system\nbelow hurricane strength.  By 24 hours, vertical shear is forecast\nto decrease, and the SSTs gradually warm along the forecast track.\nAssuming the overall circulation remains intact, Florence shouldn't\nhave any problems restrengthening beginning in a day or so. In\nfact, guidance suggests that Florence could once again become a\nmajor hurricane in 4 or 5 days.  The new NHC intensity forecast is\nessentially an update of the previous one, and is only adjusted to\naccount for recent trends.  Largely, the official forecast is close\nto the various consensus aids.\n\nOwing to the degraded structure and tilted nature of the system,\nFlorence has wobbled a bit to the west, but the longer-term motion\nestimate is 305/09.  Low- to mid-level ridging should cause\nFlorence to turn toward the west-northwest and west between 12-48\nhours while the cyclone recovers from the strong shear.  Thereafter,\nFlorence is anticipated to become a deep cyclone again, but an even\nstronger ridge should maintain the west-northwestward motion, at a\nfaster speed, through day 5.  The ridge is forecast to be\nsufficiently strong such that some track models show a motion just\nsouth of due west during the next 12-36 hours.  Beyond day 3, the\ntrack forecast becomes increasingly uncertain due to differing\nevolutions of the steering pattern over the western Atlantic.  While\nall of the global models show a progressive trough eroding the\nridge, they differ in the strength of the trough and the ridge to\nthe north of Florida.  These differences result in a great deal of\nbifurcation in the track guidance, especially among global model\nensemble members, at the end of the forecast period. In such\nsituations, prudence suggests a reliance on continuity, and the the\nnew official NHC track forecast is shifted only slightly south\ntowards the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA.  It is important to\nnote that deterministic track models in these types of situations\noften display considerable run-to-run changes, and the uncertainty\nin this forecast remains larger than normal.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin\nto affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this\nweekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track\nbeyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other\nimpacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.\n\n3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good\ntime for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they\nhave their hurricane plan in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 25.0N  49.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 25.4N  50.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 25.5N  52.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 25.5N  53.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 25.6N  54.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 26.4N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 28.0N  61.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 30.0N  67.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg/Rhome\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 PM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nOlivia has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory,\nwith the eye becoming better defined inside of the central dense\novercast.  The various satellite intensity estimates range from\n100-120 kt, and the initial intensity is nudged upward to 110 kt in\nagreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus.  The hurricane\nremains in a light vertical shear environment and is showing good\ncirrus outflow, especially in the southwestern semicircle.\n\nOlivia should remain in a light shear environment during the\nforecast period, so sea surface temperatures and environmental\nmoisture should be the main controls on the intensity.  The\nhurricane should reach the 26C sea surface temperature isotherm in\nabout 12 h, and this should finally cause the hurricane to weaken.\nThe forecast track keeps the cyclone over 25-26C sea surface\ntemperatures through about the 72 h point as it also encounters a\ndrier airmass, and thus the intensity forecast shows weakening\nconsistent with the trend of the intensity guidance.  After 72 h,\nthe waters along the forecast track begin to warm, but the airmass\nnear Olivia gets even drier.  The guidance shows continued weakening\nduring this time, so the intensity forecast follows suit. However,\nthere is lower confidence in this portion of the forecast.\n\nWater vapor imagery continues to show a large deep-layer ridge to\nthe north of Olivia, and the large-scale models forecast the western\nend of the ridge to build westward during the next several days.\nThis pattern should steer the cyclone west-northwestward for the\nnext 48 h or so, followed by a westward motion from 72-120 h.  The\ntightly clustered track guidance supports this scenario, and the\nnew forecast track is changed little from the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 18.6N 128.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 19.2N 130.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 20.0N 133.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 20.7N 135.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 21.2N 138.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 21.5N 143.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 21.5N 147.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":31,"Date":"2018-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nDeep convection near the center of Florence has continued to\ndecrease during the past several hours, and the overall cloud\npattern remains elongated from southwest to northeast.  The latest\nDvorak estimates and a recent scatterometer pass suggest that\nFlorence is no longer a hurricane, and the initial wind speed is\nset to 60 kt.\n\nSome further weakening is anticipated since the shear isn't forecast\nto change much in the short term.  However, all of the global models\nshow a significant reduction of shear during the next several days,\nespecially later this weekend.  In combination with waters warming\nto near 29C, these conditions should promote strengthening into a\nhurricane again in a day or two and a major hurricane by early next\nweek. The intensity guidance is higher than the last cycle at long\nrange, which is hard to argue with considering the large upper-level\nanticyclone forecast in the vicinity of Florence.  The NHC intensity\nforecast follows the trend of the previous prediction, a bit\nelevated from the previous forecast at days 4 and 5, although still\nbelow the intensity guidance.\n\nA recent scatterometer pass indicates that Florence has slowed down\nand turned left, estimated at 290/6.  A narrow ridge over the\nsubtropical Atlantic Ocean should continue to turn the storm\nwestward overnight, albeit traveling at a relatively slow pace due\nto the strength of the ridge.  This ridge is forecast is strengthen\nat long range, steering Florence faster to the west-northwest over\nthe western Atlantic Ocean.  Except for the UKMET, most of the\nhistorically reliable guidance is in reasonable agreement on this\nscenario, which is a bit surprising given the recent trials and\ntribulations from the guidance suite. The models continue to shift\nwestward at long range, however, owing to differences on the\nstrength and position of that ridge, and the official NHC track\nforecast is moved in that direction.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin\nto affect Bermuda on Friday and portions of the U.S. East Coast this\nweekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track\nbeyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other\nimpacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.\n\n3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good\ntime for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they\nhave their hurricane plan in place.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 25.1N  49.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 25.2N  50.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 25.2N  52.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 25.2N  53.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 25.3N  54.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 26.1N  57.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 27.6N  62.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 30.0N  68.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 PM PDT Thu Sep 06 2018\n\nOlivia's satellite presentation is an outstanding example of an\nannular hurricane with the shape of a truck tire.  In fact, the\nAnnular Hurricane Index on the SHIPS model output is 100. The\nhurricane has a distinct clear eye surrounded by a ring of very deep\nconvection. The Dvorak numbers, both objective and subjective, are\nT6.0, and on this basis, the winds are increased to 115 kt in this\nadvisory. The current annular pattern indicates that hurricane\nshould weaken more slowly that indicated by guidance in the short\nterm. Nevertheless, since the ocean is a little bit cooler along the\nforecast track, very gradual weakening is forecast through the next\n5 days. The confidence in the intensity forecast is not very high.\n\nOn the contrary, the confidence in the track forecast is high.\nOlivia is fully embedded within the easterly flow south of a\nsubtropical high, and the hurricane is moving toward the\nwest-northwest or 290 degrees at 12 kt. The subtropical high will\npersist, and most likely expand farther westward, and this flow\npattern will force Olivia to move on the general westward track or\neven south of due west by the end of the forecast period. Guidance\nfor the next 5 days is in extremely good agreement, and the NHC\nforecast in on top of the skinny guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 19.1N 129.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 19.7N 131.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 20.5N 134.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 21.2N 136.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 21.5N 139.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 21.8N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 22.0N 148.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 21.5N 152.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":32,"Date":"2018-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nFlorence's structure continues to be negatively affected by strong\nsouthwesterly shear.  Cloud tops have generally warmed over the\npast 6 hours, and recent microwave data show that the low-level\ncirculation center of Florence is displaced nearly 20 nmi to the\nsouthwest of the mid-level center.  Satellite intensity estimates\nhave decreased since last night, and now support an initial\nintensity of 55 kt.\n\nBased on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostic output, the southwesterly\nshear is near its peak now, and should gradually decrease over the\nnext 24 to 36 h.  All of the intensity guidance shows little change\nin intensity through that time. From 48 h onward, a low shear/warm\nSST environment should allow the tropical storm to re-strengthen.\nHowever, the extent and timing of the strengthening varies greatly\nfrom model to model, with the dynamical models generally showing\nmore intensification, and sooner, than the statistical models.  As\nhas been the case for most of Florence's existence thus far,\nconfidence in the intensity forecast, especially beyond 36 h, is\nlow.  The new official forecast is a little lower than the previous\nadvisory for the first 48 h, but close to it after that, and lies\nbetween the more aggressive HCCA and less aggressive IVCN consensus\naids.\n\nNighttime Proxy-Vis and earlier microwave imagery indicate that\nFlorence has turned westward, with an estimated initial motion of\n275/6 kt. Most of the track guidance has shifted slightly toward the\nsouthwest, so the NHC track forecast has also been nudged in that\ndirection.  Over the next 3 days of the forecast, Florence should be\nsteered generally westward, and then west-northwestward, by a\nmid-level ridge to its north.  By days 4 and 5, a developing\nmid-latitude trough could create a weakness in this ridge and allow\nFlorence to move more toward the northwest, but there is still\nconsiderable uncertainty in the global models and their ensembles\nregarding the strength of the ridge and if the aforementioned trough\nwill have any notable impact on the track of Florence.  The NHC\nforecast follows HCCA very closely, and is also near the middle of\nthe large combined envelope of the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin\nto affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast\nthis weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n2. There is still very large uncertainty in Florence's track\nbeyond day 5, and it is too soon to determine what, if any, other\nimpacts Florence could have on the U.S. East Coast next week.\n\n3. Since we are near the peak of hurricane season, this is a good\ntime for everyone who lives in a hurricane-prone area to ensure they\nhave their hurricane plan in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 25.1N  50.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 25.1N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 25.0N  53.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 25.0N  54.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 25.1N  55.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 26.2N  58.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 27.5N  63.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 30.0N  70.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  27...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nCorrected second paragraph about previous category-4 strength\n\nOlivia's overall cloud structure in infrared and passive microwave\nsatellite imagery has changed little since the previous advisory,\nexcept that the cloud tops have warmed significantly around the\nwell-defined, 20-nmi-diameter eye. As a result, both subjective and\nobjective intensity estimates have decreased markedly since Olivia\nbriefly gained category-4 strength on the previous advisory.\nHowever, microwave imagery indicates that Olivia has evolved into an\nannular hurricane, with only inner-core convection present and no\nbanding features. As a result, the initial intensity only been\ndecreased to 110 kt, which is a typical slower rate of weakening for\nannular hurricanes.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Olivia is\nexpected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 24-36\nhours, followed by a westward motion as the hurricane nudges up\nagainst a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge that stretches from\nMexico and the southwestern U.S. westward into the central Pacific.\nThe new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the\nprevious advisory track and is down the middle of the very tightly\npacked model guidance, closest to the speed of the TVCN consensus\ntrack model.\n\nAs mentioned in the previous advisory discussion, the current\nannular pattern indicates that Hurricane Olivia should weaken more\nslowly than indicated by guidance, even though the cyclone will be\nmoving over slightly cooler SSTS of about 25.5 deg C by 36 h. The\nlow shear environment that the cyclone will be embedded in should\nhelp to offset some of the negative effects of the cooler waters.\nAfter that time, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer\nwaters and remain in a low shear environment, so a little leveling\noff in the weakening process is forecast until 96 hours. On day 5,\nhowever, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected\nto induce more significant weakening at that time. The official\nintensity forecast is similar to, but higher than, the consensus\nmodels, and more closely follows a blend of the dynamical models\nHWRF and HMON.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 19.6N 131.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 20.2N 133.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 20.9N 135.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 21.4N 138.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 21.7N 140.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 22.0N 145.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 21.9N 149.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 21.0N 153.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":33,"Date":"2018-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nModerate to strong southwesterly shear continues to affect Florence,\nbut visible and microwave satellite images indicate that the\ncyclone is maintaining a vigorous, but tilted, circulation.\nA mid-level eye feature is noted in both types of satellite\nimagery, but the low-level center still appears displaced to the\nsouthwest.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates\nhave stopped falling--and some have even begun to increase a bit\nagain--so the initial intensity is being held at 55 kt.\n\nThe shear over Florence has likely reached its maximum and is\nexpected to decrease below 20 kt in 6-12 hours and then decrease to\n10 kt or less in 36 hours.  All the while, sea surface temperatures\nwill be gradually increasing to between 28-29C, and perhaps more\nimportantly, oceanic heat content values will double in 3-4 days.\nIt may take the cyclone some time to gather itself once the shear\nabates, but once it becomes vertically stacked again, the intensity\nis likely to increase significantly.  The guidance is in agreement\non this scenario, and Florence is likely to re-attain hurricane\nstatus in about 48 hours and then potentially major hurricane\nstrength by days 4-5.  The new official forecast is fairly similar\nto the previous one, generally close to the ICON intensity consensus\nand slightly below the HCCA model on days 4 and 5.\n\nFlorence is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, to the south of the\neastern periphery of a subtropical ridge extending east of the\nMid-Atlantic United States.  The global model guidance is actually\nin fairly good agreement on the general evolution of the steering\npattern around Florence through day 5.  While it remains a tilted\ncyclone, Florence is expected to continue moving westward for the\nnext 48 hours.  After that time, a break in the ridge should allow\nFlorence to turn west-northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic.\nA new mid-level ridge is expected to develop over the western\nAtlantic on days 4-5, but the position of that high will play a big\nrole regarding how much Florence may turn by the end of the\nforecast period.  Only a slight southward nudge of forecast track\nwas required on this cycle, keeping the NHC prediction between the\nGFS and ECMWF solutions.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells will begin\nto affect Bermuda later today and portions of the U.S. East Coast\nthis weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along\nthe U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is\nstill very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track\nbeyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,\nmagnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along\nthe U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through\nthe weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 25.0N  51.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 24.9N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 24.9N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 24.9N  55.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 25.1N  56.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 25.9N  59.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 27.5N  65.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 30.0N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the area of\nlow pressure that moved off the west coast of Africa has developed a\nclosed circulation that appears to be well defined. However, the\nconvective organization, given Dvorak classifications of only T1.0,\ndo not support calling the system a tropical cyclone at this point.\nHowever, given that the system is expected to be a tropical storm\nnear the southern Cabo Verde Islands in 36 to 48 hours, advisories\nare being initiated on this system as a potential tropical cyclone\nat this time, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for those\nislands.\n\nEnvironmental conditions of light to moderate easterly shear and\nSSTs of 27-28C should support development of this system, and the\nNHC forecast shows it becoming a tropical storm by 12 hours.\nGradual strengthening is indicated by the bulk of the intensity\nguidance through the next 3-4 days. After that time, the shear is\nforecast to increase and the system will be moving into somewhat\ncooler waters, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The NHC\nforecast is close to the latest HCCA guidance and a little higher\nthan the IVCN consensus.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 275/09 given\nthat the surface circulation is just forming. The synoptic pattern\nover the eastern Atlantic features a ridge to the north of the\ndisturbance, which is expected to weaken by the end of the period.\nThis steering pattern should result in a westward to west-\nnorthwestward motion for the next 72 hours with an increase in\nforward speed, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a\nslightly more poleward motion as the system responds to the weakness\nin the ridge. The initial NHC track forecast is close to the latest\nHCCA track consensus aid and near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 13.1N  17.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  08/0000Z 13.3N  18.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  08/1200Z 13.8N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 14.2N  22.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 14.6N  25.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 16.0N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 18.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 20.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 AM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nAlthough Olivia is still a major hurricane, the cloud tops have\nwarmed some over the past several hours and the eye is not quite as\ndistinct as it was overnight.  All of the satellite intensity\nestimates have decreased this cycle, and the initial intensity is\nlowered to 100 kt using that data.  Satellite data indicate that\nOlivia is an annular hurricane with a well organized inner core, but\nwith a lack of outer banding features.\n\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt.  The track\nforecast philosophy appears fairly straightforward.  Olivia is\nexpected to move westward to west-northwestward during the next few\ndays as it remains steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  By\nthe end of the forecast period, a turn to the west-southwest is\nexpected as ridging builds to the northwest of the cyclone.\nThe NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope, in best agreement with the consensus aids.  Based on\nthis forecast, Olivia is expected to cross into the central Pacific\nbasin by late Saturday.\n\nOlivia is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, and it will remain over\nthese waters during the next several days.  These marginal SSTs\ncombined with drier air should cause a slow weakening trend through\nthe forecast period.  However, as mentioned in previous discussions,\nresearch has proven that annular hurricanes like Olivia weaken\nslower than normal in these types of conditions.  Therefore, the\nNHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of weakening than the\nIVCN and HCCA models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 20.7N 134.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 21.3N 137.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 21.7N 139.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 22.0N 142.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 22.3N 146.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 22.0N 150.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 21.0N 155.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":34,"Date":"2018-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nLittle has changed with Florence's structure during the day.  The\nlow-level center is located on the southwestern side of the deep\nconvection due to moderate to strong southwesterly shear, and\nsatellite intensity estimates are essentially the same from this\nmorning.  Therefore, the estimated maximum winds remain 55 kt.\nNOAA is scheduled to conduct a research mission with the P-3\naircraft tomorrow, which should provide some useful wind data and\ngive us a better handle on the cyclone's intensity.\n\nVertical shear is still expected to gradually decrease over the\nnext day or two, likely reaching values of 10 kt or less by 48\nhours.  During this period, Florence should become more vertically\nstacked, which would allow for some reintensification, possibly back\nto hurricane strength within 36-48 hours.  After 48 hours, the shear\nis expected to remain generally low, and oceanic heat content values\nwill increase significantly as Florence moves over the waters\nbetween Bermuda and the northern Leeward Islands.  This is a\nclassic recipe for a quick intensification trend, and Florence is\nexpected to become a major hurricane by days 4 and 5.  The\ngenerally skillful HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and ICON\nintensity consensus are all near 110-115 kt by day 5, and because\nof this, no notable changes were required from the previous\nofficial intensity forecast.\n\nFlorence has been moving south of due west (260 degrees) at 7 kt,\nlocated south of a low- to mid-level ridge.  The cyclone is\nexpected to continue moving generally westward for the next 48\nhours while it remains sheared.  As Florence begins to strengthen\nand become vertically stacked after 48 hours, it should begin to\nturn west-northwestward, steered by a deeper flow regime.  By days\n4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge is forecast to\ndevelop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S., keeping Florence\non a west-northwestward trajectory with an increase in forward\nspeed by the end of the forecast period.  A slight southwestward\nadjustment was made to the NHC forecast to account for Florence's\ninitial motion and a slight shift in the overall guidance envelope.\nFor most of the forecast period, the official forecast is close to\na blend of the GFS and ECMWF.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are\naffecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S. East\nCoast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.\n\n2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along\nthe U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is\nstill very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track\nbeyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,\nmagnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along\nthe U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through\nthe weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 24.8N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 24.6N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 24.6N  54.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 24.6N  55.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 24.8N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 25.8N  60.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 27.5N  67.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 30.5N  73.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nSatellite data and surface observations indicate that the low\npressure system located just west of the coast of Africa has\ndeveloped into a tropical depression.  Conventional satellite\nimagery shows a well-defined convective band has formed near the\ncenter, and microwave satellite imagery has hinted at the formation\nof an inner ring of convection.  The initial intensity of 30 kt\nand the central pressure of 1002 mb are based on surface\nobservations from ships and the west coast of Africa. The depression\ncurrently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/9.  During the next 3-4 days, the cyclone\nshould move generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward\nspeed on the south side of the subtropical ridge over the eastern\nAtlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, a developing mid- to\nupper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to weaken\nthe ridge and allow the cyclone to turn northwestward with a\ndecrease in forward speed.  There is some spread in the guidance\nlate in the period, with the UKMET and the Canadian models showing\nan earlier turn than the other models.   The new forecast track,\nwhich is similar to the previous track, is in best agreement with\nthe TVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nThe depression is in an environment of light to moderate easterly\nvertical shear and over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C.  This\nshould allow at least steady strengthening, and rapid strengthening\nis possible based on the hints of the inner core in microwave\nimagery.  This portion of the intensity forecast has been increased\nto the upper edge of the intensity guidance, with the cyclone\nforecast to become a tropical storm in 12 h or less and a hurricane\nbetween 48-72 h.  After 72 h, the system should be over sea surface\ntemperatures near 26C and encountering southwesterly vertical shear\ndue to the aforementioned trough.  This should cause at least a\ngradual weakening.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 13.2N  18.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 13.5N  19.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 13.9N  21.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 14.4N  24.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 14.9N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 16.5N  33.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 18.0N  38.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 20.5N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nTropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   1...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nCorrected bin number from 2 to 4\n\nSatellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the\neastern tropical Atlantic has developed a well-defined center and\nsufficient deep convection to be classified a tropical depression,\nthe ninth one of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season and second one\nof the day.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a 2.0\nDvorak classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data.\n\nThe depression has not moved much today, and it has even wobbled a\nbit to the east recently.  This slow motion is a result of very\nweak steering with broad troughing to the north and Tropical\nDepression Eight to its east.  Little motion is expected through\ntonight, but a westward motion with a gradual increase in forward\nspeed is forecast thereafter as a subtropical ridge builds to the\nnorth of the cyclone.  The NHC track forecast lies closest to the\nHCCA guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the\nend of the forecast period.\n\nThe depression is experiencing some influences of easterly shear,\nwhich is why the center is currently on the eastern edge of the\nconvection. Little change in intensity is expected during the next\n12 to 24 hours since the cyclone is still in the developing stage\nand because moderate shear is expected to continue.  However, the\nshear is expected to decrease to less than 10 kt in about 24 hours.\nThese more favorable winds aloft combined with relatively warm\nwaters and a fairly moist airmass should allow for steady\nstrengthening beginning later in the weekend.  There is a large\nspread in the intensity guidance, with the HWRF showing the system\nbecoming a major hurricane and HMON showing almost no strengthening.\nThe NHC intensity forecast lies a little below consensus models\nsince it appears that it will take some time for the system to\nstrengthen.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 13.6N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 13.9N  35.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 14.0N  36.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 14.0N  37.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 14.0N  39.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 14.0N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 14.1N  48.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 14.5N  54.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":29,"Date":"2018-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nOlivia continues to slowly weaken.  Deep convection in the eyewall\nhas been gradually decreasing in intensity and coverage, but it\nstill completely surrounds the eye.  A blend of the latest\nsatellite intensity estimates supports lowering the initial wind\nspeed to 95 kt.  Olivia still has an annular appearance with the\ncloud pattern consisting of an inner core with little to no outer\nbands.\n\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt.  There\nhas been no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Olivia is\nforecast to move west-northwestward for another day or so before\nturning to the west, or even west-southwest, as ridging builds to\nthe north of the system.  The NHC track forecast remains near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope, and in best agreement with the\nconsensus aids.  Based on this forecast, Olivia is expected to cross\ninto the central Pacific basin by late Saturday and approach the\nHawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days.\n\nAlthough Olivia remains in low wind shear conditions, the cyclone\nis over fairly cool 25-26 deg C waters.  These marginal SSTs and an\nincreasingly drier and more stable air mass should cause the slow\nweakening trend to continue through the forecast period.  However,\nas mentioned in previous discussions, annular hurricanes like\nOlivia often weaken slower than normal in these conditions, so it\nis possible Olivia won't weaken as fast as some of the guidance\nsuggests.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 20.5N 133.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 21.1N 135.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 21.6N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 21.8N 141.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 22.0N 143.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 22.0N 148.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 21.6N 151.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 20.5N 156.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":35,"Date":"2018-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nFlorence remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  Satellite images\nindicate that the low-level center is partially exposed on the\nsouthwesterly edge of a large convective mass, with the overall\ncirculation somewhat elongated from southwest to northeast.\nA blend of the latest Dvorak wind speed estimates from TAFB/SAB and\nthe CIMSS SATCON gives a value of 50 kt for this advisory.\n\nWhile the winds at 200 mb are already from an easterly direction\nnear the center of Florence, there is significant shear from\nnorthwesterly winds from 300-500 mb, undercutting the outflow layer.\nThis shear is forecast to relax by the global models over the next\n36 hours as an anticyclone builds to the north of the storm, which\nshould promote some strengthening by Sunday. After 48 hours, the\ndeep-layer flow becomes easterly near the cyclone, with very little\nshear while the system is over very warm waters.  This pattern\nfavors significant intensification, and most of the guidance brings\nFlorence back to a category 4 hurricane in 4 or 5 days.  The\nintensity forecast is very similar to the last one, and is raised\nslightly at days 3 and 4 to come into better agreement with the\nguidance.  It is interesting to note that even with a lower initial\nintensity, the guidance is higher than the last cycle, which speaks\nto the strength of the signal for intensification in the long range.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 265 degrees at 6 kt.  Florence is\nexpected to continue moving slowly westward for the next 48 hours\nunder the influence of a weak mid-level ridge over the western\nAtlantic.  By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge\nis forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S. and\nbuild westward, keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory\nwith a notable increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast\nperiod.  It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall\nguidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official\nforecast is moved in that direction.  Unfortunately with such a\nlarge well-defined steering current from the ridge becoming likely,\nthe extended-range risk to the United States keeps rising, which is\nconfirmed by the majority of the latest ensemble guidance.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are\naffecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.\nEast Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.\n\n2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along\nthe U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is\nstill very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track\nbeyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,\nmagnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along\nthe U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through\nthe weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 24.8N  53.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 24.7N  54.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 24.7N  55.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 24.7N  56.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 25.0N  57.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 25.8N  62.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 27.5N  68.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 30.5N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nA very timely ASCAT pass indicated that the winds associated with\nthe depression have increased to 35 kt, and also that the center was\na little east of the location previously indicated. This is very\ncommon in systems during the formative stage.  Based on the ASCAT\ndata, the system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Helene, the\neighth named storm of the season. The satellite presentation has\nalso improved during the past several hours, and now the cyclone has\nlarge cyclonically curved convective bands to the south of the\ncenter. The outflow is fair in all quadrants.\n\nHelene will be moving over warm waters and within an environment\nof light shear through the next 3 to 4 days, and most of the\nguidance responds to that environment by gradually strengthening the\ncyclone. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the intensity\nconsensus, and brings Helene to hurricane intensity in about 3 days.\n\nCurrently, Helene is embedded within a southwest monsoon-type flow,\nand is moving toward the west at about 9 or 10 knots. However, as\nthe cyclone moves away from the African coast, it will become\nsteered by the easterly flow around the subtropical ridge and should\nthen increase in forward speed. Most of the track models are in\nextremely good agreement, at least for the next 3 days when the\nconfidence in the forecast is high. At the long range, a mid-level\ntrough is expected to develop over the central Atlantic, forcing the\ncyclone to turn more to the northwest and even north later on. The\nNHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and basically\non top of the corrected consensus HCCA.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 13.6N  18.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 13.8N  19.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 14.3N  22.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 14.8N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 15.4N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 17.0N  33.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 18.5N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 20.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nThe depression continues to be impeded by moderate easterly shear\nwith the center of circulation decoupled to the east of a deep\nconvective banding feature.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt\nbased on subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe dynamical-statistical intensity guidance, as well as the\nlarge-scale models, indicate that the shear should diminish to less\nthan 10 kt within the next 24 hours.  A more favorable upper-wind\npattern along with warm oceanic temperatures is expected to promote\nsteady strengthening commencing after that time.  The intensity\nforecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA consensus\nmodels and remains below the stronger HWRF at days 4 and 5.\n\nThe depression has been meandering during the past several\nhours, as a result of weak low- to mid-level steering currents\ncreated by a deep-layer trough digging southward over the eastern\nAtlantic.  In 12 to 24 hours, a westward motion with a gradual\nincrease in forward speed is forecast thereafter as the trough lifts\nnortheast, and the subtropical ridge re-establishes to the north of\nthe cyclone.  The NHC track forecast lies closest to the HCCA and\nTVCN guidance and takes the system toward the Lesser Antilles by the\nend of the forecast period.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 13.9N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 14.1N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 14.2N  36.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 14.3N  38.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 14.4N  40.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 14.4N  45.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 14.4N  50.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 14.9N  56.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":30,"Date":"2018-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 PM PDT Fri Sep 07 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Olivia has continued to degrade this evening\nwith warming of the inner core, and a decreasing eye temperature. A\ncompromise of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates, and an\nearlier SATCON analysis, support decreasing the initial wind speed\nto 85 kt.  Olivia still has an annular appearance with the cloud\npattern consisting of an inner core with little to no outer bands.\n\nContinued slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days as\nOlivia moves over marginal sea surface temperatures of about 25C and\ninto an increasingly drier, more stable thermodynamic environment.\nAfterward, Olivia will move back over slightly warmer waters and\nremain in a low shear environment, so little change in strength is\nexpected through day 3. Through the remaining portion of the\nforecast, southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt should\ninduce more significant weakening.\n\nOlivia's motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt,\nand is being steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge that\nextends from Mexico and the southwestern U.S. westward into the\ncentral Pacific.  The cyclone is forecast to move west-northwestward\nfor 72 hours or so before turning to the west, or even\nwest-southwest, as the aforementioned ridge builds to the north. The\nofficial forecast has been adjusted south of the previous forecast\nbeyond day 3 to conform more with the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus\nmodels.  On the forecast track, Olivia is expected to cross into the\ncentral Pacific basin by late Saturday and approach the Hawaiian\nIslands in 4 to 5 days.\n\nKEY MESSAGES\n\n1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from\nthe east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact\nlocation and magnitude of any impacts.  Interests in Hawaii should\nmonitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to\nenact your hurricane action plan.\n\n2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any\nspecific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time\nranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt\nanywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well\naway from the center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 20.9N 135.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 21.3N 137.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 21.6N 140.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 21.8N 142.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 21.8N 145.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 21.7N 149.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 20.9N 152.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 19.5N 157.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts/Birchard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":36,"Date":"2018-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nAlthough Florence remains a sheared tropical cyclone, satellite\nimagery during the past 6 h also indicates that the shear has\nstarted to abate somewhat, which has allowed the dense cirrus\ncanopy to build back over the previously exposed low-level\ncirculation center. Furthermore, deep convection with overshooting\ncloud tops near -80C and an abundance of lightning activity have\ndeveloped very close to the center. Based on these data along with\nDvorak intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, the\ninitial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/8 kt. The mid-latitude flow\nacross CONUS and the northern Atlantic is forecast to flatten out\nand become more zonal over the next 48 h or so, resulting in the\ndevelopment of a narrow east-west oriented ridge along 35/36N\nlatitude.  This large-scale feature is expected to steer Florence\nin a general westward direction during that time. By days 3-5,\nhowever, the flow across the central and western U.S. is forecast\nto buckle and become more meridional as a  deep mid-/upper-level\ntrough over the northeast Pacific pushes inland over the western\nU.S., causing downstream ridging over the northeastern U.S. and\nnorthwestern Atlantic. The global models agree on this general\nchange in the synoptic-scale flow pattern, but they differ\nnoticeably on where a downstream mid-/upper-level high pressure cell\ntakes up residence over the Atlantic either to the northwest or\nnortheast of Bermuda. The farther west/east the high develops will\ndetermine how far west/east Florence will eventually move and\npossibly affect the U.S. east coast beyond the 5-day forecast\nperiod. The new official forecast track is close to the previous\nadvisory track through 48 h, and then was nudged a little to the\nleft or west of the previous track, which is close to the consensus\nmodel TVCN and is north of the corrected-consensus models FSSE and\nHCCA since the bulk of the NHC model guidance lies north of those\nlatter two models.\n\nThe upper-level environment is expected to improve to significantly\nduring the next 12 h and beyond with the current 20 kt of\nsouthwesterly shear forecast to give way to shear of less than 10\nkt. By 72 h and beyond, light shear from the southeast and east\nalong with the development of strong upper-level outflow jets to\nthe north of Florence is expected to create an environment that\nfavors significant and possibly even rapid strengthening. The new\nNHC intensity forecast has been increased over the previous advisory\nin anticipation of these very favorable dynamical conditions\ndeveloping, and now shows Florence becoming a hurricane by Sunday\nand a major hurricane in 3 days, followed by additional\nstrengthening over the very warm Atlantic waters of at least 29 deg\nC that are about 2 deg C above normal right now. The consensus\nmodels IVCN and HCCA were closely followed, which are a little\nbelow the FSSE model.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Regardless of Florence's eventual track, large swells are\naffecting Bermuda and will begin to affect portions of the U.S.\nEast Coast this weekend, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.\n\n2. The risk of other direct impacts associated with Florence along\nthe U.S. East Coast next week has increased.  However, there is\nstill very large uncertainty in model forecasts of Florence's track\nbeyond day 5, making it too soon to determine the exact location,\nmagnitude, and timing of these impacts.  Interests near and along\nthe U.S. East Coast should monitor the progress of Florence through\nthe weekend and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 24.5N  54.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 24.6N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 24.6N  56.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 24.6N  57.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 24.9N  59.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 26.0N  64.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 28.0N  70.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 30.9N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nHelene's structure appears to be quickly improving this morning.\nThe initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a blend\nof the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and the\nUW-CIMSS SATCON.  Several microwave passes overnight indicate that\nthe cyclone has become more vertically aligned, likely due to a\nreformation of the center beneath the strongest convection.  In\nfact, a 0733 UTC SSMIS image shows the early development of a low-\nto mid-level eye, which is often a precursor to intensification.\n\nNearly all of the intensity guidance seems to have picked up on the\nimproved structure of Helene, and the models show far more\nintensification than before, especially through 48 h.  Consequently,\na significant change has been made to the intensity forecast, which\nnow calls for Helene to become a hurricane on Sunday while it is\nnear the Cabo Verde islands.  Once the cyclone passes the islands,\nthe environment is expected to remain favorable for intensification\nfor at least 72 h.  By the end of the forecast period, all of the\nguidance shows some weakening due primarily to increased shear\nassociated with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough over the\ncentral Atlantic.  Given the recent microwave imagery signature, low\nshear, and warm SSTs, its possible that the current forecast is\nstill too conservative, especially for the first 36 h of the\nforecast, and further adjustments could be required if it becomes\nclear that Helene is intensifying at a faster rate than expected.\n\nSmoothing through the possible reformation of the center, Helene\nappears to be moving west with an initial motion around 275/10 kt.\nLittle change was required to the track forecast, which has been\nnudged only slightly south for the first 48 h of the forecast, in\nline with the latest track model consensus.  A westward motion\nshould continue for the next couple of days, as Helene is steered\nby a mid-level ridge to the north.  By day 5, the aforementioned\ntrough over the central Atlantic should force Helene to turn toward\nthe northwest.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 13.7N  19.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 13.9N  21.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 14.1N  23.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 14.7N  26.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 15.4N  29.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 17.2N  35.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 19.0N  39.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 22.0N  42.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe depression continues to be affected by moderate to strong east\nto southeasterly vertical wind shear, which has resulted in the\nbulk of the deep convection being displaced to the west of the\nlow-level center. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt\nbased on Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from\nboth TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe depression has been meandering in the same general area for the\npast 12-18 h due to being caught in a weakness in the subtropical\nridge. However, recent microwave satellite data suggest that the\ncyclone is now moving slowly northwestward. A turn toward the west\nis expected to occur later today as a shortwave trough to the north\nthat has weakened the ridge lifts out, allowing the ridge to fill\nback in and build westward to the north of the Lesser Antilles. The\nlatest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed, and the\nofficial forecast track lies down the middle of the envelope near a\nblend of the consensus aids TCVA, HCCA, FSSE.\n\nAlthough the wind shear is forecast to gradually weaken and become\nless than 5 kt by 36-48 h, which would favor rapid strengthening,\nthe airmass that the cyclone is embedded is fairly dry. Since\nmid-level humidity values are forecast to decrease from the current\n60-percent range down to around 50 percent by 48 hours and beyond,\nonly modest strengthening is expected during the next 4 days. By day\n5, vertical wind shear from the southwest is forecast to increase to\n20-25 kt, serving to cap the intensification process. The NHC\nintensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and the HCCA\nconsensus models, and continues to remain below the stronger HWRF\nmodel at days 4 and 5, which makes the cyclone a major hurricane in\n78 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 14.3N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 14.4N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 14.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 14.7N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 14.6N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 14.5N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 14.6N  52.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 14.9N  57.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":31,"Date":"2018-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Olivia has continued to degrade\novernight with the surrounding ring of deep convection warming\nand the eye becoming less distinct.  Dvorak T-numbers have decreased\nand a blend of current intensity (CI) numbers from TAFB and SAB, and\nADT and SATCON estimates from UW/CIMSS yields an initial wind speed\nof 80 kt.  Although the vertical wind shear is expected to remain\nlow over Olivia, the hurricane will be moving over marginal sea\nsurface temperatures of 25-26C, and into a dry mid-level\nenvironment. These factors are expected to cause gradual weakening\nover the next 24 hours.  After that time, slightly warmer SSTs along\nthe forecast track should slow or halt the weakening process, and\nlittle change in strength is expected between 24 and 72 hours.\nIncreasing southwesterly shear by day 3 is likely to result in\nadditional weakening later in the forecast period.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is\nbetween the HFIP corrected consensus model and the IVCN consensus\naid.\n\nOlivia is moving west-northwestward or 285/13 kt.  A strong\ndeep-layer ridge that is building westward across the central\nPacific should steer Olivia generally westward over the next 2-3\ndays.  After that time, most of the track guidance takes Olivia\nwest-southwestward as it comes under the influence of the\nnortheasterly trade wind flow.  Although the track models are fairly\nunanimous in taking Olivia west-southwestward, there is large\ncross-track spread in the guidance at 72 hours and beyond.  The HWRF\nand ECMWF are along the northern side of the guidance envelope while\nthe GFS and UKMET bracket the southern side.  Given the large amount\nof spread, the official forecast is again near the TVCN and HFIP\nconsensus models at 72-120 h.  On the forecast track, Olivia is\nexpected to cross into the central Pacific basin later today and\napproach the Hawaiian Islands early next week.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES\n\n1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from\nthe east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact\nlocation and magnitude of any impacts.  Interests in Hawaii should\nmonitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to\nenact your hurricane action plan.\n\n2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any\nspecific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time\nranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt\nanywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well\naway from the center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 21.2N 136.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 21.5N 138.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 21.7N 141.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 21.8N 144.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 21.8N 146.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 21.5N 150.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 19.2N 159.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":37,"Date":"2018-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nFlorence has undergone a dramatic structural evolution just within\nthe past 6 hours or so.  Vertical shear has decreased just enough\nfor the storm to take on a more symmetric shape, with convection\ndeveloping in a ring around the low-level center, and an elongated\nband wrapping around to the northeastern part of the circulation.\nThe convection has waned a little bit in intensity, however, due to\nthe presence of dry air, and Dvorak estimates support maintaining\nan initial intensity of 55 kt for now.  A NOAA P-3 aircraft is\napproaching Florence now on a research mission and should provide\nsome useful data to better assess the storm's intensity.\n\nRecent WindSat microwave data revealed that Florence has a\nwell-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, which tends to\nbe a harbinger of strengthening when environmental conditions are\nfavorable.  Since vertical shear is decreasing and should be 10 kt\nor less by later today, and Florence is heading toward a deeper\npool of warm water over the southwestern Atlantic, a significant\nphase of intensification is likely to begin by tonight, continuing\nthrough Tuesday or Wednesday.  In fact, the official intensity\nforecast explicitly shows rapid intensification occurring between\n24 and 48 hours from now, and Florence is expected to become a\nmajor hurricane by Monday.  The HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and\nthe Florida State Superensemble (FSSE), both of which tend to do\nwell in these scenarios, are both near the upper end of the guidance\nsuite, especially through day 3.  Even by days 4 and 5, the HWRF,\nHMON, and ICON intensity consensus are near the top end of the\nguidance, close to HCCA and FSSE.  Given the signals in the\nenvironment, and the solutions provided by these models, the NHC\nintensity forecast shows Florence reaching category 4 intensity by\nday 3 and maintains that through the end of the forecast period.\n\nFlorence's longer-term motion is 265/6 kt.  The cyclone appears to\nbe slowing down as was expected, and this type of motion is likely\nto continue for the next 24-36 hours.  In fact, the track guidance\nhas slowed down during this period, and the updated NHC track\nforecast is a little slower than the previous one.  After 36 hours,\nthe most notable change in the models was a northeastward shift in\nthe 06Z GFS.  However, that run appears to be an outlier from the\nrest of the dynamical models, and its trend opposes the slight\nwestward shift noted in the HCCA and FSSE aids.  The updated NHC\ntrack forecast is therefore very close to or slightly west of the\nprevious forecast on days 4 and 5.  The exact path of Florence as it\napproaches the southeastern U.S. coastline will depend heavily on\nthe position and strength of the blocking high pressure that is\nexpected to develop north of Bermuda and extend westward over the\neastern U.S., and so far there has not been much more clarity on\nthose important details.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the\nsoutheast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct\nimpacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in\ntrack and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to\ndetermine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those\nimpacts.\n\n2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north\nFlorida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress\nof Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and\nfollow any advice given by local officials.\n\n3. Large swells are affecting Bermuda and will begin to affect\nportions of the U.S. East Coast this weekend, resulting in\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 24.5N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 24.6N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 24.6N  56.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 24.8N  57.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 25.1N  59.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 26.3N  64.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 28.5N  71.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 31.5N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe structure of Helene continues to improve, with convective\nbanding wrapping around almost completely around the center of the\ncyclone in visible satellite imagery.  Infrared imagery suggests\nthis convection is not very strong at the moment, though, and this\nmay be why recent scatterometer data indicates that the storm has\nnot strengthened since the last advisory.  The initial intensity\nremains 40 kt based on the scatterometer winds.\n\nAll indications are that Helene should strengthen through at least\n72 h in a light vertical shear environment over sea surface\ntemperatures near 27C.  This part of the intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous forecast and lies near the intensity\nconsensus.  However, there are a couple of alternate forecast\nscenarios.  The first is that Helene could rapidly intensify and\nbecome stronger than currently forecast.  The second is that a\nlarge plume of African dust and associated dry air that has spread\nover the northern Cabo Verde Islands starts entraining into the\ncyclone and inhibits intensification.  The former alternative seems\nmore likely than the latter at this time, and if RI begins later\nintensity forecasts will need to be increased.  After 72 h, Helene\nis expected to encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated\nwith a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, which\nshould cause the system to weaken.\n\nHelene's center appears to have again re-formed, this time a little\nto the south.  The somewhat uncertain initial motion is 265/11.\nOther than a slight nudge to the south due to the initial position,\nthere is little change in the forecast track for Helene.  The\ncyclone should moved westward to west-northwestward for the next\n3-4 days on the south side of the subtropical ridge, then turn\nnorthwestward in response to the aforementioned trough.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 13.4N  20.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 13.6N  22.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 13.9N  24.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 14.6N  27.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 15.3N  30.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 17.0N  36.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 19.0N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 22.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe structure of Tropical Depression Nine is improving as the\nongoing shear diminishes, with the convection getting closer to the\nlow-level center.  However, recent scatterometer data indicates\nthat the system has not yet become a tropical storm, and the\ninitial intensity remains 30 kt.\n\nThe cyclone is still moving fairly slowly, with the initial motion\nnow 300/5.  The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is\nforecast to steer the system westward with an increasing forward\nspeed for at least the next 2-3 days.  After that time, there is\nsome uncertainty in the track forecast due to the formation of a\nmid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic.  The Canadian\nand UKMET models forecast the cyclone to slow down and turn\nnorthwestward near the end of the forecast period due to the trough,\nwhile the ECMWF and GFS show a continued westward motion.  The track\nforecast follows the ECMWF/GFS scenario and shows a faster westward\nmotion than the previous forecast.  The new forecast also lies near\nthe various consensus models.\n\nWith the shear diminishing, conditions are becoming more favorable\nfor the cyclone to strengthen during the next 72 h.  However, there\nare still concerns about dry air entraining into the system.  The\nnew intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast with the\ncyclone becoming a tropical storm in about 12 h and a hurricane in\nabout 72 h.  After 72 h, the system is expected to encounter\nanother round of shear, which is expected to cause some weakening.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 14.6N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 14.7N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 14.8N  38.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 14.8N  40.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 14.8N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 14.5N  49.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 14.5N  55.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 14.5N  60.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":32,"Date":"2018-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  32...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nCorrected initial intensity in the text from 70 to 75 kt.\n\nSatellite images indicate that Olivia continues to slowly weaken.\nThe eyewall convection has warmed during the past several hours,\nwith some breaks noted in the northwestern quadrant.  A blend of\nthe various intensity estimates gives a value of 75 kt for this\nadvisory.  Olivia is forecast to stay a hurricane for the next\ncouple of days while the system is experiencing light shear,\nbalanced by very dry air aloft and marginal but warming SSTs.\nWhile the forecast is flat-lined through 48 hours, don't be\nsurprised if the system's intensity fluctuates upward at times, as\nmany eastern Pacific cyclones have done so this season within a\nmarginal environment.  After the weekend, most of the guidance\nindicates that westerly shear should increase, which will likely\ncause weakening while Olivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands. The\nnew intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one\nand is close to the consensus.\n\nOlivia has turned westward and is moving 275/13.  A building\nsubtropical ridge should steer the hurricane basically due westward\nfor the next couple of days, and the model guidance is in good\nagreement during this time.  Thereafter, a mid-level ridge over\nHawaii will impart some northerly steering flow on Olivia, which\nshould cause the cyclone to move west-southwestward toward the\nmain Hawaiian Islands.  There isn't great agreement on how fast it\nwill turn, however, due to the forecast depth of Olivia.  The\nguidance generally indicates a stronger system will turn more\nsouthwestward, like the GFS or UKMET solutions, while a weaker\nsystem would have less of a turn, like the ECMWF or HWRF solutions.\nThe model consensus has barely budged since the previous advisory,\nso little change has been made.  Since the track seems to be\ndependent on the intensity at long range, this isn't a particularly\nconfident forecast.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES\n\n1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from\nthe east early next week, but it is too soon to determine the exact\nlocation and magnitude of any impacts.  Interests in Hawaii should\nmonitor the progress of Olivia this weekend and use this time to\nenact your hurricane action plan.\n\n2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any\nspecific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time\nranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt\nanywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well\naway from the center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 21.4N 138.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 21.6N 140.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 21.7N 142.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 21.7N 145.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 21.7N 147.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 21.2N 151.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 20.2N 155.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 AM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe area of low pressure that NHC has been tracking for several\ndays has enough organized deep convection this morning to be\nclassified as a tropical depression.  Some northeasterly shear is\naffecting the cyclone, with the apparent center on the northeastern\nside of a growing area of deep convection.  The initial wind speed\nis set to 30 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak classification from\nTAFB.  Gradual strengthening is forecast while the cyclone remains\nover warm waters within a light-to-moderate shear environment.\nAfter 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off quite a bit and\nweakening should begin.  The NHC forecast is close to, but a little\nabove, the model consensus near peak intensity to account for the\nlow bias the model guidance has had for many eastern Pacific storms\nthis year.\n\nAn uncertain initial motion estimate is 290/10.  All of the model\nguidance turn the cyclone northwestward by tomorrow as the cyclone\nrounds the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge located over\nMexico.  A turn back toward the west-northwest is anticipated in a\nfew days due to the system coming under the influence of the primary\neastern Pacific subtropical ridge.  For a first advisory, the model\nguidance isn't in terrible disagreement, so the NHC prediction will\nlie near close to the various consensus and corrected-consensus\naids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 16.1N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.6N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 17.7N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 18.9N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 21.5N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":38,"Date":"2018-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nA NOAA P3 aircraft conducted a research mission several hours ago\nin Florence and measured SFMR surface winds of around 60 kt and\nwinds up to 65 kt at a flight level of 8000 feet.  Velocities of\n65-70 kt at 500 meters were also measured by the Doppler radar on\nthe plane.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is raised to\n60 kt.  Dropsonde data also showed that the central pressure was\ndown to 989 mb.\n\nFlorence is slowly recovering from the dry air its circulation\ningested while it was under the influence of strong shear.\nConvection in the outer bands is relatively thin but is deeper and\nmore persistent near the center.  Now that the shear has decreased\nand the warm waters ahead of Florence reach deeper into the ocean,\ncontinued strengthening is anticipated.  In fact, the official\nforecast continues to show a period of rapid intensification, now\nbeginning 12-24 hours, with Florence reaching major hurricane\nintensity between 36-48 hours.  One fly in the ointment is that the\nSHIPS diagnostics are keeping mid-level relative humidities around\nthe cyclone around 50 percent, which isn't particularly moist, but\nI'm going to assume that Florence will be able to scour out the dry\nair within its circulation in the coming days.  The HCCA model and\nthe ICON intensity consensus support maintaining a forecast peak\nintensity of 125 kt in 4 days or so, so no significant changes were\nmade from the previous forecast.  Regardless of the specifics of\nthe other models--some of which are higher and some of which are\nlower--Florence is expected to be a powerful major hurricane on\ndays 3 through 5 as it moves across the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.\n\nFlorence is creeping westward (270 degrees) at 4 kt, trapped\nbetween high pressure to its northeast and southwest.  A different\nblocking ridge is expected to develop north and northeast of\nBermuda over the next few days, causing Florence to accelerate\ntoward the west-northwest and northwest between days 3-5.  There\nhave been some notable shifts in the model guidance on this cycle,\nwith the ECMWF model swinging to the northeast closer to the GFS,\nand the HWRF model swinging farther south along the southern edge\nof the guidance envelope.  Despite this change in the deterministic\nECMWF run, its individual ensemble members are still showing a\nsignificant spread of solutions from just north of the Bahamas to\noffshore the coast of North Carolina by day 5.  Because of this\nspread, the updated NHC track forecast largely maintains\ncontinuity and remains close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.\nAnd despite the ECMWF's shift, this track prediction remains north\nof the HCCA and FSSE solutions.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the\nsoutheast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct\nimpacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in\ntrack and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to\ndetermine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those\nimpacts.\n\n2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north\nFlorida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress\nof Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and\nfollow any advice given by local officials.\n\n3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue into next week.  These swells will result in\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 24.6N  54.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 24.6N  55.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 24.7N  56.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 25.0N  58.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 25.4N  60.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 26.9N  66.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 29.5N  72.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nDuring the past few hours, Helene has developed a convective band\nthat wraps about three-quarters of the way around the storm, and\nthe intensity of the inner core convection has increased.  In\naddition, microwave imagery shows an elliptical inner ring feature.\nSatellite intensity estimates at 18Z were in the 35-50 kt range, and\ngiven the recent increase in organization the initial intensity is\nincreased to 50 kt.\n\nHelene should continue to strengthen through at least 72 h in a\nlight vertical shear environment over sea surface temperatures near\n27C.  This part of the intensity forecast has been increased over\nthe previous forecast and lies near the intensity consensus.\nHowever, there remain a couple of alternate forecast scenarios.  The\nfirst is that Helene could rapidly intensify and become stronger\nthan currently forecast, and the rapid intensification index of the\nSHIPS model has about a 35 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening\nin the next 24 h.  The second is that a large plume of African dust\nand associated dry air that has spread over the Cabo Verde Islands\nstarts entraining into the cyclone and inhibits intensification.\nThe former alternative is more likely than the latter at this time.\nAfter 72 h, Helene is expected to encounter increasing southwesterly\nshear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough over the central\nAtlantic, which should cause the system to weaken significantly.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/11.  There again is little change in the\nforecast guidance or the forecast track, with Helene expected to\nmove westward to west-northwestward for the next 3 days or so on the\nsouth side of the subtropical ridge, then turn northwestward in\nresponse to the aforementioned trough.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 13.6N  21.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 13.7N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 14.1N  26.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 14.7N  29.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 15.5N  32.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 17.5N  37.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 19.5N  40.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 23.0N  42.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe structure of the cyclone, while still a shear pattern, is\nimproving, with the low-level center now near the convective\novercast and improved outflow in the eastern semicircle.  Satellite\nintensity estimates have increased to the 30-45 kt range, with the\nCIMSS satellite consensus technique now suggesting winds near 35\nkt.  Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to\n35 kt and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaac.\n\nIsaac is now moving slowly westward, with the initial motion 275/6.\nThe subtropical ridge to the north of Isaac is forecast to steer the\nsystem westward with an increasing forward speed for at least the\nnext 2-3 days.  After that time, there is some uncertainty in the\ntrack forecast due to the formation of a mid- to upper-level trough\nover the central Atlantic, with some of the track guidance showing a\ndecrease in forward speed and a more northerly motion near the end\nof the forecast period.  The GFS and ECMWF models show a continued\nwesterly motion through that time, and the official forecast follows\nthat scenario, although with a slower forward speed than in the\nprevious forecast.  The new forecast is again similar to the\nearlier forecast and lies near the various consensus models.\n\nConditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the\nnext 72 h as Isaac moves westward across the warm waters of the\ntropical Atlantic.  In best agreement with the SHIPS model for the\nnext three days, the new intensity forecast is raised from the\nprevious forecast during this time.  From 72-120 h, the system is\nexpected to encounter westerly wind shear, which is expected to\ncause some weakening.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 14.5N  36.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 14.6N  37.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 14.7N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 14.7N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 14.7N  44.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 14.5N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 14.5N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 15.0N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olivia","Adv":33,"Date":"2018-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP172018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Olivia Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172018\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Olivia has remained about the same\nfor the past several hours, as eyewall convection stays mostly\nsolid around the eye.  Dvorak estimates are basically unchanged, so\nthe initial wind speed is kept at 75 kt.  Olivia should stay a\nhurricane for the next couple of days while it is experiencing light\nshear, balanced by very dry air aloft and marginal but warming SSTs.\nAfter the weekend, most of the guidance continue to indicate that\nwesterly shear should increase, and weakening is forecast while\nOlivia approaches the Hawaiian Islands.  No significant changes\nwere made to the intensity forecast.\n\nOlivia is moving westward at 13 kt.  There is no change to the\nsynoptic reasoning.  A building subtropical ridge should steer the\nhurricane basically due westward for the next couple of days.\nThereafter, a mid-level ridge over Hawaii should cause Olivia to\nlose some latitude and move west-southwestward toward the main\nHawaiian Islands.  The models are in better agreement on this cycle,\nwith the UKMET and GFS models trending more to the north, resulting\nin a smaller guidance spread.  The official forecast is shifted a\nbit northward to match the guidance trend.  A C-130 plane is\ncurrently conducting a synoptic surveillance mission around Olivia,\nwhich should hopefully aid later forecasts, which will be issued by\nthe Central Pacific Hurricane Center.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Olivia is forecast to approach the main Hawaiian Islands from\nthe east on Tuesday, and pass close to or over the Islands on\nWednesday.  It is too soon to determine the exact location and\nmagnitude of any impacts, but interests in Hawaii should continue to\nmonitor the progress of Olivia, and use this time to enact your\nhurricane action plan.\n\n2.  Do not focus on the exact track or intensity forecast, or any\nspecific landfall location, as errors can be large at extended time\nranges.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could be felt\nanywhere in the islands as significant impacts could extend well\naway from the center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 21.7N 139.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 21.9N 141.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 22.0N 144.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 22.0N 146.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 22.0N 148.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 21.4N 152.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 20.4N 156.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 19.5N 162.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nGOES-16 visible imagery shows the center of the depression on the\nedge of a convective mass, with a large part of the eastern part of\nthe circulation exposed due to shear.   Dvorak estimates are a\nlittle higher than the last advisory, but the evidence is not strong\nenough yet to upgrade the system to a tropical storm, so the\nwinds will stay 30 kt.  Gradual strengthening is anticipated while\nthe cyclone remains over warm waters within a light-to-moderate\nshear environment. After 72 hours, the water temperatures drop off\nquite a bit and weakening should begin.  The biggest change is that\nthe model guidance is considerably lower in this cycle, perhaps due\nto easterly shear persisting for a bit longer.  Only a small\ndecrease was made to the intensity forecast at long range, but\nlater advisories could be lower if model trends continue.\n\nVisible imagery also helped reposition the depression about a\ndegree west of the last advisory.  Ironically, the initial motion\nestimate is unchanged, still 290/10 kt.  A mid-level ridge over\nMexico should steer the system northwestward for the next day or so,\nthen the dominant eastern Pacific subtropical ridge is forecast to\nturn the system back toward the west-northwest.  Numerical guidance\nis a fair distance west of the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast\nfollows that trend, resulting in a large westward adjustment to the\nNHC forecast after absorbing the initial position change.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 15.8N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.5N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 17.6N 118.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 19.9N 121.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 22.3N 129.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":39,"Date":"2018-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has continued to\ngradually become better organized with an eye feature trying to\nform. An average of all of the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates\ntonight suggest that Florence is not a hurricane yet, but is close\nto being one. The initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this\nadvisory.  The recent ASCAT data showed less winds than previously\nobserved by the NOAA plane when the cloud pattern was less\norganized.\n\nThere is a band of convection trying to wrap around a possible eye\nfeature, and that is an indication that Florence has continued to\nrecover from the hostile shear environment, which brought the\nhurricane from Category 4 to a tropical storm in a matter of a day\nor so.  The presence of developing upper-level outflow is a\ngood indication that the shear has decreased, and with the presence\nof a warm ocean ahead, strengthening is anticipated.  As indicated\nby my predecessor, the official forecast continues to call for a\nperiod of rapid intensification in about 12-24 hours, and Florence\nis expected to reach major hurricane intensity between 36-48 hours\nwith additional strengthening thereafter.  Florence is forecast to\nbe an intense hurricane on days 3 through 5 as it moves across the\nwarm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between the Bahamas\nand Bermuda, and then as it heads toward the southeast United States\ncoast.\n\nFlorence is still trapped within very light steering currents,\nand is slowly moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 5 kt.\nAll indications are that this is about to change, as a strong ridge\nof high pressure builds to the north of the hurricane. This\nforecast flow pattern predicted by the global models will force\nFlorence on a general west-northwest to northwest track with an\nincrease in forward speed.  The NHC forecast is basically on top of\nthe previous one, and is in the middle of the narrow guidance\nenvelope mainly for the next 3 to 4 days.  By the end of the\nforecast period, when the hurricane is approaching the U.S. coast,\nthe guidance envelope is wider and becomes bounded by the\nnorthernmost GFS and the southernmost HCCA and the FSSE ensembles.\nOne thing all models coincide at the longer range is with the\ncollapsing of the steering currents, resulting in a significant\nreduction of the forward speed of the hurricane.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the\nsoutheast U.S. coast by late next week, and the risk of direct\nimpacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in\ntrack and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to\ndetermine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those\nimpacts.\n\n2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north\nFlorida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress\nof Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and\nfollow any advice given by local officials.\n\n3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue into next week.  These swells will result in\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 24.6N  55.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 24.5N  55.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 24.8N  57.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 25.2N  59.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 25.8N  61.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 27.5N  67.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 30.0N  73.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 33.8N  77.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nHelene continues this evening with a large area of convective\nbands that wrap about three-quarters around the center.  A blend of\nthe subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB with\nthe CIMSS' SATCON gives an intensity of 50 kt, unchanged from the\nprevious advisory. The tropical storm is situated just south of the\nupper-level subtropical ridge, which is inducing weak southeasterly\nvertical shear.  That along with warm 28C waters and a moist,\nunstable atmosphere should support at least steady intensification\nfor the next two days.  By day three, however, the shear will\nincrease out of the southwest as Helene moves close to an\nupper-level low. Simultaneously, the SSTs will drop to near 26C and\nthe mid-troposphere should dry.  The new intensity forecast shows a\npeak of 90 kt at 48 h, with gradual to steady weakening thereafter.\nThis is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus (minus the\nmuch weaker HMON solution) with a higher peak intensity than the\nprevious advisory but a slightly faster decay.\n\nHelene's initial position was aided by the availability of a 2222Z\nASCAT pass, which showed it to be somewhat farther south than\nearlier estimated.  The initial motion is analyzed to be 260/11,\nas it is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The\ntropical cyclone should gradually turn toward the west-northwest by\nMonday, then toward the north-northwest by Wednesday.  The new\ntrack forecast - based on the TVCN multimodel consensus - is\nslightly south of the previous advisory throughout the forecast\nperiod, mainly because of the southward initial position.\n\nThe aforementioned scatterometer pass allowed for a more accurate\nassessment of the initial size, which is somewhat larger than\nanalyzed earlier.  The new wind radii prediction indicates a larger\nHelene than the previous advisory, and is based upon the RVCN\nmulti-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 13.2N  22.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 13.3N  24.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 13.8N  27.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 14.5N  30.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 15.3N  33.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 17.1N  37.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 19.5N  40.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 22.5N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nIsaac is strengthening this evening.  Satellite images indicate that\nthe deep convection has been increasing in intensity and coverage\nwith better defined banding features.  The center is not located in\nthe center of the convection, however, due to some easterly shear.\nAn ASCAT pass around 00Z showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt\nrange.  These data are also in line with the latest Dvorak\nclassifications of 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB.  Based on these\nestimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.\n\nIsaac will likely continue to strengthen during the next few days as\nthe storm remains over warm waters and moves into an environment of\ndecreasing wind shear.  Beyond a few days, the SHIPS model shows a\nnotable increase in shear, in part due to the outflow from Florence,\nwhich should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening.\nWith the exception of the HMON and COAMPS-TC models, the remainder\nof the intensity guidance is higher this cycle.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is raised from the previous one, but it is a little lower\nthan the HCCA and IVCN guidance.\n\nThe storm is moving due westward at 7 kt.  The track forecast seems\nfairly straightforward.  A strengthening subtropical ridge to the\nnorth of the system should cause Isaac to move westward at an\nincreasing forward speed during the next several days.  This\nscenario is supported by the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF\nmodels, and the NHC track forecast is near a blend of those aids.\nBased on the current forecast, Isaac will be near the Lesser\nAntilles in 4 to 5 days and interests there should monitor the\nprogress of this system.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 14.4N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 14.4N  38.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 14.5N  40.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 14.5N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 14.5N  46.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 14.5N  51.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 14.6N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 15.0N  62.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 PM PDT Sat Sep 08 2018\n\nThe depression has changed little during the past several hours. The\nsystem remains sheared with the center located near the eastern edge\nof the main area of deep convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern\nis due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly shear. The satellite\nintensity estimates range between 30-35 kt, so the initial intensity\nis held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression should have some\nopportunity to strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days while it\nremains over warm waters and in a relatively moist environment.\nHowever, the global models suggest that the shear may not let up\nmuch during that time period, so only slow strengthening is\nanticipated.  Beyond a few days, the water temperatures beneath the\nsystem are forecast to fall below 26 deg C.  These unfavorable\noceanic conditions and a drier and more stable airmass should cause\na weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than\nthe previous one, but still lies at the high end of the model\nguidance.\n\nThe depression is still moving westward but at a slower pace than\nbefore.  The models all show the system turning northwestward\novernight and maintaining that motion during the next few days as it\nis steered by a weakening mid-level ridge. Once the system moves\nover cooler waters and becomes shallow, a turn to the west-northwest\nis forecast as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow.  The\nnew NHC track is a little north of the previous one to come into\nbetter agreement with the latest consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.1N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 19.6N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 21.7N 125.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 22.8N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 23.7N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":40,"Date":"2018-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nFlorence's cloud pattern has continued to gradually become better\norganized overnight, with an increase in convection near the center\nand a developing central dense overcast feature.  However, the\ncloud tops are not particularly cold and the outer banding features\nremain fragmented likely due to some nearby dry mid-level air.\nDvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB range from 55 to 65\nkt, so the initial intensity remains 60 kt, just shy of hurricane\nstrength.  The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate\nthe storm later today, and that data should provide a better\nassessment of Florence's intensity.\n\nThe upper-level outflow is becoming well established over the\ncyclone, and the global model guidance indicates that Florence\nwill remain in a very favorable upper-level environment while the\ncyclone moves over the warm waters over the southwestern\nAtlantic.  These conditions favor strengthening with the only\napparent negative factor being nearby dry air, which will likely\nremain away from the inner core due to the low shear conditions.\nThe NHC intensity forecast again calls for a period of rapid\nstrengthening within the next 12-36 hours, and Florence is forecast\nto become a major hurricane on Monday with additional strengthening\nearly in the week.  This means that Florence is likely to be a very\npowerful hurricane as it moves over the western Atlantic toward the\nsoutheastern United States.  The new NHC intensity forecast is near\nthe various intensity consensus aids and is very similar to the\nprevious official forecast.\n\nFlorence is currently located between a couple of mid-level ridges\nand a slow westward motion is expected today.  Another strong\nhigh pressure ridge is forecast to build to the north of Florence\non Monday, which should cause the storm to begin moving\nwest-northwestward to northwestward at an increasingly faster\nforward speed.  The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered\nfor the first 2-3 days with increasing spread thereafter.  The GFS\nremains along the right side of the guidance envelope with the HWRF\nand ECMWF bracketing the left edge.  It should be noted that both\nthe GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are a little to the left or west\nof their operational runs.  As a result, the NHC track forecast\nlies to the left of the TVCA multi-model consensus, but is not as\nfar to the west as the FSSE and HCCA corrected consensus models at\nday 5.  The models are in agreement that Florence is likely to slow\ndown near the end of the forecast period as a blocking high\npressure ridge builds to the north of the hurricane.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Florence is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane near the\nsoutheast U.S. coast by late this week, and the risk of direct\nimpacts continues to increase. However, given the uncertainty in\ntrack and intensity forecasts at those time ranges, it's too soon to\ndetermine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of those\nimpacts.\n\n2. Interests along the U.S. East Coast, particularly from north\nFlorida through North Carolina, should closely monitor the progress\nof Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and\nfollow any advice given by local officials.\n\n3. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week.  These swells will result in\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 24.5N  55.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 24.6N  56.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 24.8N  58.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 25.3N  60.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 26.1N  63.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 28.2N  69.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 31.3N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 34.4N  77.9W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Helene continues to become better\norganized with an increase in banding overnight.  A couple of\nrecent microwave images show that the inner core continues to\norganize with a low-level ring evident and indication that a\nbanding-type eye is forming.  Dvorak satellite T-numbers have\nincreased and support an initial intensity of 55 kt.\n\nHelene is forecast to remain over SSTs of 27-28C during the next\ncouple of days.  The upper-level wind pattern is also expected to\nbe quite favorable, and these conditions should support steady\nintensification.  Slightly cooler waters and increasing\nsouthwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the northwest of\nHelene are likely to put an end to the intensification process by\nday 3. After that time, Helene is forecast to move closer to the\naforementioned trough with southwesterly shear and drier mid-level\nair likely to result in weakening by day 4 and 5.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is near the IVCN intensity consensus model, but it is a\nlittle more conservative than the FSSE and HCCA models.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving westward or 270 degrees at 12 kt. A\ndeep-layer ridge to the north of the storm should steer Helene\nwestward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days.  By\nmid-week, Helene is expected to approach a weakness in the ridge\nbetween 40-50W longitude and the cyclone is predicted to turn\nnorthwestward, then north-northwestward by the end of the period.\nThe track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario,\nbut there is some spread later in the period as to exactly what\nlongitude the northwesterly turn takes place.  The NHC forecast is\nbetween the various dynamical model solutions and is close to the\nHFIP corrected consensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 13.2N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 13.4N  26.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 14.0N  28.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 14.7N  31.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 15.4N  34.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 17.4N  38.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 20.5N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 25.0N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Isaac has changed significantly during the past\nseveral hours.  The storm no longer has a sheared appearance, and\ninstead microwave images reveal a well-defined curved band that\nwraps a little more than halfway around the center.  Despite the\nchange in the storm's structure, the Dvorak classifications are\nunchanged at 3.0/45 kt.  Based on that data, the initial intensity\nis held at 45 kt for this advisory.\n\nNow that the shear has lessened, Isaac should steadily strengthen\nduring the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and\nin a low wind shear environment.  Beyond a few days, however, the\nSHIPS model shows a notable increase in shear, in part due to the\noutflow from Florence, which should end the strengthening trend and\ninduce some weakening.  There was no significant change in the\nintensity guidance this cycle, so the official forecast is largely\nan update of the previous one.  This prediction lies fairly\nclose to the IVCN and HCCA models.\n\nIsaac remains on the forecast track and the initial motion is the\nsame as before, 270/7.  A strengthening subtropical ridge to the\nnorth of the system should cause Isaac to move westward at an\nincreasing forward speed during the next several days.  Although\nthere is some spread in the models, the usually more reliable GFS\nand ECMWF models have been consistent in showing a due westward\nmotion through the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast leans\ntoward those models, and it is fairly similar to the previous\nprediction. Based on the current forecast, Isaac will be near the\nLesser Antilles in 4 to 5 days and interests there should monitor\nthe progress of this system.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 14.5N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 14.6N  39.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 14.7N  41.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 14.7N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 14.7N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 14.7N  53.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 14.9N  58.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 15.3N  64.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nSatellite data indicate that depression has strengthened.  The\ncyclone has a large curved band that wraps across the western half\nof the circulation, but banding features remain limited to the east\nof the center.  A partial ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed\n30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant.  Based on that data and\nthe 2.5/35 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity\nis increased to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm Paul.\n\nPaul will likely strengthen some more during the next couple of days\nwhile it remains over warm waters and in a relatively moist\nenvironment. However, significant strengthening appears unlikely\nbecause of continued moderate east-northeasterly shear during the\nnext day or so.  The opportunity for intensification should end in a\nfew days when the system moves over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and\ninto a drier and more stable air mass.  The NHC intensity forecast\nis again nudged downward, but it still lies at the high end of the\nmodel guidance.\n\nSatellite fixes suggest that Paul has turned sharper to the\nnorthwest than expected.  Smoothing through the fixes yields an\ninitial motion estimate of 320/7.   A continued northwestward motion\nis expected during the next day or two.  After that time, Paul\nshould turn to the west-northwest in response to a mid-level ridge\nto its north and then slow down by the end of the forecast period\nwhen it becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level flow. The\nNHC track has been adjusted northward to account for the change in\nthe initial motion and position.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 17.1N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 18.2N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 19.4N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 20.6N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 21.4N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 23.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 24.5N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":41,"Date":"2018-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Florence is strengthening.  Deep\nconvection has intensified in the central dense overcast, with\nhints of a ragged eye in the latest GOES-16 visible channel.  The\nNOAA Hurricane Hunters just flew through the eye, finding 70 kt\nwinds at flight-level and 66 kt from the SFMR.  This data confirms\nthat Florence has become a hurricane again, and the initial wind\nspeed is set to 65 kt.  The aircraft also found that the minimum\npressure has decreased to 984 mb.\n\nOvernight microwave data and the Hurricane Hunter vortex message\nshow that a mostly complete eyewall has formed with Florence.  In\ncombination with low vertical wind shear and progressively warmer\nwaters near 29C, this structure is a blueprint for rapid\nintensification. Almost all of the intensity guidance is showing at\nleast one period of rapid strengthening during the next few days,\nwhich is rather rare.  The NHC wind speed forecast is raised in the\nfirst couple of days following the guidance trend, then is very\nsimilar to the previous one.  All indications are that Florence will\nbe an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane while it moves over\nthe western Atlantic toward the southeastern United States.\n\nFlorence continues moving slowly westward, caught between a pair\nof mid-level ridges over the Atlantic Ocean.  A very strong ridge is\nforecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few\ndays, which should steer Florence west-northwestward at a much\nfaster forward speed.  By Wednesday, the hurricane should turn\nnorthwestward, and slow down somewhat due to another ridge forming\nover the Ohio Valley.  It is interesting to note that while the\nensemble means from the ECMWF and UKMET are west of the NHC\nforecast, the strongest members are on the right side of their\nensemble envelope.  Thus, the new NHC track forecast is very similar\nto the previous one, and continues to lie between the corrected\nconsensus and consensus aids.  The Ohio Valley ridge is concerning\nbecause Florence could stop moving pretty quickly around day 5,\npotentially leading to a serious heavy rain episode and inland flood\nhazard.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from\nFlorence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a\nprolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to\ndetermine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these\nimpacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into\nthe mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of\nFlorence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow\nany advice given by local officials.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 24.4N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 24.5N  57.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 24.9N  59.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 25.6N  61.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 26.4N  64.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 29.0N  70.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 32.2N  75.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 35.0N  78.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nHelene continues to exhibit a fairly well-organized cloud pattern,\nbut does not yet have a well-defined inner core.  The current\nintensity estimate, 55 kt, is based on a blend of subjective and\nobjective Dvorak estimates and is also close to the latest SATCON\nvalue.  The tropical cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters\nwith low to moderate vertical wind shear for the next couple of\ndays.  Therefore, strengthening is likely through the early part of\nthis week.  Later in the period, marginal SSTs and increasing\nsouth-southwesterly shear should induce weakening.  The official\nwind speed forecast is on the high side of the numerical intensity\nguidance.\n\nHelene continues to move westward, or about 270/11 kt.  The system\nshould move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a\nmid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic over the next 48 hours or\nso.  Thereafter, a mid-level trough is expected to create a\npronounced weakness in the ridge along 40W-45W longitude.  This\nsteering pattern is likely to cause Helene to turn northwestward to\nnorth-northwestward during the latter part of the forecast period.\nThe official track forecast is very similar to the previous NHC\nprediction and lies roughly in the middle of the numerical guidance\nsuite.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 13.2N  25.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 13.7N  27.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 14.3N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 14.9N  32.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 15.7N  35.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 17.8N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 21.0N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 26.0N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nWindSat microwave data from several hours ago show that Isaac has\ndeveloped a well-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, and\nthe center is embedded in the middle of a small central dense\novercast.  TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have increased to T3.5\ngiven Isaac's improved structure, so the initial intensity is raised\nto 55 kt.\n\nIsaac's future intensity is the most challenging part of the\nforecast.  Since sea surface temperatures will be warm (between\n27-28 degrees Celsius) and vertical shear will be almost\nnon-existent (less than 10 kt) for the next 36-48 hours, the tiny\nstorm will be prone to a possibly significant increase in intensity\nduring the next couple of days.  For that period, the NHC intensity\nforecast is above the guidance, and above the previous forecast, due\nto relatively high numbers from the various rapid intensification\nindices.  However, in 2-3 days, the global models are showing\nnorthwesterly shear steadily increasing and potentially reaching a\nmaximum of around 30 kt by Thursday.  The big question is the\ntiming of this shear and how much it will affect Isaac's intensity\nbefore the cyclone reaches the Lesser Antilles.  The HWRF, which\nbrings Isaac to major hurricane intensity despite the forecast\nshear, appears to be an outlier, and is therefore pulling up the\nICON intensity consensus and HCCA.  As a result, the NHC intensity\nforecast is below ICON on days 4 and 5.  This new forecast shows a\nmore peaked maximum intensity, with Isaac possibly increasing and\nthen decreasing in strength at faster rates than shown here.\n\nWhile the microwave data indicate that Isaac's center is slightly\nsouth of previous estimates, the current motion estimate is 270/8\nkt.  A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to move westward in\ntandem with Isaac for much of the forecast period, causing the\ncyclone to accelerate toward the west, reaching a forward speed of\naround 15 kt by 36 hours, and then holding that speed through day\n5. With the exception of the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance\nenvelope is tightly packed from north to south, and the speed\ndifferences noted over the past few days have decreased.  The\nupdated NHC track forecast is just a little south of the previous\none to account for the adjusted initial position, and lies slightly\nsouth of the multi-model consensus in the direction of HCCA and the\nFlorida State Superensemble.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 14.3N  39.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 14.4N  40.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 14.4N  43.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 14.4N  46.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 14.3N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 14.2N  54.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 14.5N  60.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 15.0N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 AM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nPaul has not strengthened since the last advisory.  Satellite\nimagery shows that the disorganized low-level center is located\non the northeastern edge of the main convective mass, while the\ncyclone is being influenced by fairly strong easterly shear.  The\nadvisory intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak\nestimate from TAFB.  Although the shear is forecast to relax\nduring the next couple of days, Paul will then be moving over\nmarginal SSTs and into a drier air mass.  Therefore only modest\nstrengthening is predicted during the next day or so, followed by a\nleveling off of the intensity.  The official forecast is a little\nbelow the previous one, but above most of the latest numerical\nguidance.\n\nPaul is moving slowly northwestward, or 320/7 kt.  The cyclone is\nexpected to continue northwestward on the western side of a weak\nmid-level ridge over the next day or so.  Later in the forecast\nperiod, a ridge to the north of the system should cause Paul to\nturn toward the west-northwest.  The official track forecast is\nsimilar to the previous NHC prediction and close to the dynamical\nmodel consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 17.9N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 20.1N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 21.1N 121.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 23.7N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 24.5N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":42,"Date":"2018-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nThe last reconnaissance fix indicated that the pressure had fallen\nto about 978 mb with Florence, a drop of about 6 mb in 4 hours, with\nuncontaminated SFMR winds of about 70 kt. Since then, the satellite\npresentation has continued to improve, with intensifying deep\nconvection near the center.  Thus the wind speed is set to 75 kt on\nthis advisory.\n\nRadar data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter indicated that there were\nstill a few breaks in the eyewall, possibly allowing some dry air to\nmix into the core.  This structure has potentially kept Florence\nfrom intensifying rapidly so far.  It is likely, however, that the\neyewall will close soon with low environmental shear present,\nresulting in a faster intensification rate.  The guidance is\nremarkably well clustered, with all of the hurricane models showing\ncategory 4 strength within 48 hours, which is uncommon given the\ncurrent intensity.  The new forecast continues to show rapid\nintensification and is increased 5 or 10 kt at most time periods,\nbut it is still not as high as the Florida State Superensemble or\nthe NOAA corrected consensus models.  It is worth noting that the\nmodel guidance is also significantly increasing the size of\nFlorence's wind field over the next few days, and the official\nforecast reflects this trend.\n\nThe fixes from the aircraft indicate that Florence hasn't gained\nmuch latitude yet, and continues moving westward at about 6 kt.\nThere is no change to the synoptic reason as a very strong ridge is\nforecast to build over the northwestern Atlantic during the next few\ndays.  This pattern should steer Florence west-northwestward at a\nmuch faster forward speed by Tuesday.  On Wednesday, the hurricane\nwill likely turn northwestward and slow down somewhat due to another\nridge forming over the Ohio Valley.   The most notable change from\nthe previous advisory is that most of the models are showing a\nfaster motion in 3 or 4 days, which unfortunately increases the risk\nof a destructive hurricane landfall.  The GFS and its ensemble mean\nare outliers from the main model envelope, showing the system near\nthe Outer Banks, while the rest of the guidance is well to the\nsouthwest. While a near-miss isn't impossible given the spread of\nthe ECMWF Ensemble, there is much more support for a track to the\nsouthwest, especially considering the poleward bias of the GFS thus\nfar this season. Therefore, the official track forecast is shifted a\nlittle bit to the southwest, and is very close to the\ncorrected-consensus models.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV jet is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission this\nafternoon to gather data near and around Florence for assimilation\ninto the numerical models, and these missions will continue through\nTuesday. In addition, upper-air stations across portions of the\ncentral and eastern U.S. are conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800\nUTC radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical\nmodels. Hopefully these data will help improve the track and\nintensity forecasts.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from\nFlorence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a\nprolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to\ndetermine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these\nimpacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into\nthe mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of\nFlorence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow\nany advice given by local officials.\n\n2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week.  These swells will result in\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 24.4N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 24.6N  58.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 25.1N  60.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 25.9N  63.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 30.3N  72.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 33.5N  77.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 35.0N  79.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nDeep convection has increased in coverage and intensity over the\nsouthern portion of the circulation, and microwave imagery suggests\nthat an inner core is beginning to develop.  Helene's maximum\nwinds are boosted to hurricane strength, 65 kt, based on Dvorak\nCurrent Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB.  The cyclone should\ncontinue to traverse warm waters and be in a low-shear environment\nfor the next couple of days.  Therefore, additional intensification\nis called for during the next 48 hours.  Afterwards, increasing\nsouth-southwesterly shear should cause gradual weakening.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is close to the model consensus, IVCN.\n\nHelene is moving just north of due west, or 280/11 kt.  There are no\nsignificant changes to the track forecast philosophy for this\nadvisory.  Helene should move generally west-northwestward along\nthe south side of a weak mid-level ridge for the next couple of\ndays.  After that, a mid-level trough digging along 40W-45W\nlongitude should induce a turn toward the northwest and eventually\nnorth.  The official track forecast is very similar to the one from\nthe previous cycle through 72 hours, and is nudged a little to the\neast after that time.  This is fairly close to the latest corrected\nconsensus guidance, HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 13.4N  26.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 13.9N  28.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 14.5N  30.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.2N  33.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.9N  35.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 18.0N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 21.5N  40.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 27.5N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nIsaac is a tiny tropical cyclone, but even still, recent SSMIS\ndata showed that it has developed a mid-level microwave eye\nfeature.  At the time of the pass (1800 UTC), the convection was a\nlittle thin on the southern side, but geostationary satellite images\nsuggest that it has filled in since that time.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates are T4.0 from TAFB and T3.5 from SAB, so the maximum\nwinds are estimated to be 60 kt.\n\nThe intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this\nmorning.  Isaac is strengthening in an environment of low shear and\nover warm sea surface temperatures, and for the next 36-48 hours,\nthe NHC intensity forecast is above the bulk of the intensity\nmodels.  The main reason for this is that Isaac's tiny size could\nallow the intensity to increase quickly within the favorable\nenvironment.  However, the cyclone's tiny size will likely also be\nto its detriment after 48 hours when northwesterly vertical shear is\nexpected to develop and increase to 20-30 kt.  The shear will\nprobably easily decouple the small system, causing the intensity to\ndecrease much faster than suggested by most of the intensity models.\nFor that reason, the official NHC intensity forecast is below the\nintensity consensus on days 3 through 5.  It should be noted that\nboth the GFS and ECMWF models show a weakening cyclone moving into\nthe eastern Caribbean Sea by days 4 and 5, with the GFS even making\nthe system an open wave by the end of the forecast period.  These\nglobal model solutions lend credence to the belief that it may be\ndifficult for Isaac to maintain hurricane status while it approaches\nthe Lesser Antilles.\n\nIsaac is accelerating toward the west with an initial motion of\n275/10 kt.  Ridging to the north is expected to keep the cyclone on\na westward trajectory for the entire forecast period, with\nacceleration continuing for the next 36 hours.  The UKMET remains\nthe biggest outlier, showing Isaac turning northwestward and\nnorthward into the central Atlantic after 48 hours.  That still\nappears to be unlikely at this time, and the NHC track forecast is\nstill close to the center of the guidance envelope.  Only a slight\nnorthward shift was made to the new forecast based on the latest\nmodel solutions.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Monday\nwhile it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.\n\n2. While Isaac is forecast to begin weakening by Tuesday while it\napproaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be at or\nnear hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands, and the\nuncertainty in the intensity forecast is higher than usual.\nInterests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac\nduring the next few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 14.5N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 14.6N  42.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 14.8N  45.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 14.9N  48.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 14.9N  50.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 15.0N  56.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 15.5N  63.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 15.5N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC indicated that Paul was\nslightly stronger than previously estimated, with several 35-40 kt\nvectors observed in the southeast quadrant.  Based on this data, the\ninitial intensity has been increased to 40 kt.  In an effort to\nmaintain some continuity, and since the ASCAT data nearly supports\n45 kt, very slight strengthening is still forecast over the next 24\nh, but little change in strength is realistically expected.\nBeginning in a day or two, a combination of dry, stable air, and\ndecreasing SSTs should cause Paul to gradually weaken, eventually\ncausing the cyclone to become a remnant low by the end of the\nforecast period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower\nthan the previous one, but is still near the high end of the\nintensity guidance. It is certainly possible Paul could weaken\nsooner than currently indicated.\n\nPaul has sped up slightly but is still moving northwestward, now at\naround 9 kt.  Almost no change has been made to the official track\nforecast.  Paul should continue moving northwestward for the next\nday or so, before gradually turning toward the west as the weakening\ncyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to\nthe north.  The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement\nthrough about 72 h, at which point there are differences mainly\nrelated to how fast the cyclone will weaken.  The NHC forecast\nremains close to HCCA and the other consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 18.5N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":43,"Date":"2018-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nFlorence's satellite appearance has continued to improve quite\nmarkedly since the previous advisory. An eye was evident in GOES-16\nhigh-resolution infrared imagery and other channels between\n2300-0000 UTC, but it became cloud covered immediately thereafter\ndue to a strong burst of deep convection in the southern and eastern\neyewall where cloud tops colder than -80C and an abundance of\nlightning activity was observed. Since that time, the CDO has\nexpanded and become more circular, outflow has increased and become\nmore symmetrical, and an eye has begun to re-appear. The initial\nintensity has been increased to 80 kt for this advisory based on a\nsubjective Dvorak intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt from SAB and NHC\nobjective intensity estimates ranging from 77 kt to 87 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Once again, there is no\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or synoptic\nreasoning. The models appear to be getting better dialed in on both\nthe location and strength of the developing blocking ridge in the\nvicinity of Bermuda during the next 4 days as the mid-latitude flow\namplifies across the CONUS and the northwestern Atlantic. In fact,\nthe global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting\nFlorence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and\neast of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the\nblocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward\nthe southeastern U.S. coastal region. The new NHC model guidance is\neven more tightly packed about the previous forecast track, with\nless than a 90 n mi cross-track spread at 72 h and less than 120 n\nmi spread at 96 h, just prior to expected landfall. Therefore, the\nnew official advisory track is essentially just an update and\nextension of the previous forecast, and lies between the nearly\njuxtaposed HCCA and FSSE corrected consensus track models.\n\nNow that Florence has developed an inner-core ring of deep\nconvection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air,\nrapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for\nthe next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind\nshear conditions, dual outflow jet pattern that will be developing,\nand very warm SSTs of 29-29.5 deg C beneath the hurricane. The most\nfavorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in\nabout 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its\nmaximum intensity.  After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to\nincrease to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest, and the\ndual outflow pattern is forecast to change to only a single poleward\noutflow pattern. This slight degradation in the upper-level\nenvironment, along with slightly cooler SSTs, is expected to result\nin a gradual weakening of the powerful cyclone. However, Florence is\nstill forecast to be near category-4 strength when the dangerous\nhurricane makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is an\naverage of the intensity forecast from the corrected consensus\nmodels HCCA and FSSE, with the latter explicitly forecasting a peak\nintensity of 134 kt in 72 hours. It is also worth noting that the\nmodel guidance is also significantly increasing the size of\nFlorence's wind field over the next few days, and the official\nforecast reflects this trend.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV jet will conduct another synoptic surveillance\nmission early Monday morning in support of the 1200 UTC model\ncycle, and these flights will continue through Tuesday. In addition,\nupper-air stations across portions of the central and eastern U.S.\nare conducting special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches to\ncollect extra data for the numerical models. Hopefully these data\nwill help improve the track and intensity forecasts.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from\nFlorence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a\nprolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to\ndetermine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these\nimpacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into\nthe mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of\nFlorence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow\nany advice given by local officials.\n\n2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week.  These swells will result in\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 24.6N  57.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 24.9N  59.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 25.6N  61.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 26.5N  64.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 27.8N  67.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 31.2N  73.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 34.0N  77.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 35.2N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Helene continues to strengthen.\nDuring the past several hours, a large band of deep convection has\ncompletely wrapped around the center resulting in the formation of\na large ragged eye.  Although there are well-defined outer bands in\nthe southern portion of the circulation, there are a few dry slots\njust beyond the inner core.  The latest Dvorak classifications have\nincreased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and therefore, the\ninitial intensity is adjusted upward to 75 kt.\n\nHelene is currently in a low wind shear environment and over fairly\nwarm 27-28 deg C SSTs.  These conditions are expected to prevail\nfor another 24-36 hours, so additional strengthening seems likely\nduring that period.  Beyond that time, however, the environment is\nexpected to gradually become less favorable for Helene with\nsouth-southwesterly shear increasing, mid-level humidities falling,\nand SSTs lowering along the future path.  All of these conditions\nsuggest a steady weakening trend beginning in a couple of days, and\nthe NHC intensity forecast follows the trend in the latest model\nguidance.\n\nThe hurricane continues to pull away from the Cabo Verde Islands,\nand the initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt.  A continued\nwest-northwest motion at about the same forward speed is expected\nfor about two days while a mid-level ridge remains the primary\nsteering feature.  After that time, a significant weakness in the\nridge, caused by a cut off deep-layer low pressure system, should\npromote a northward turn with a gradual increase in forward speed.\nThe models are in relatively good agreement on this scenario, but\nthey differ on when and where Helene makes the turn.  The NHC track\nforecast is adjusted a little to the east at the latter forecast\ntimes, but it still favors the left side of the guidance envelope\nto be near the HCCA model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 13.9N  27.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 14.4N  29.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.1N  31.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.7N  34.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 16.4N  36.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 19.0N  38.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 23.5N  40.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 29.6N  41.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Isaac Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nIsaac's IR satellite presentation has generally improved since the\nlast advisory. While there is no evidence of an eye in conventional\nsatellite imagery, the most recent microwave imagery around 2100 UTC\nindicated the presence of a pinhole eye. Dvorak intensity estimates\nare T4.0 from both TAFB and SAB, and on this basis Isaac has been\nupgraded to a hurricane, the 5th of the 2018 Atlantic season and 3rd\nin the past few days.\n\nI must stress that all aspects of the forecast are highly uncertain\nat this time. The dynamical track model spread is nearly 1000 miles\nat day 5, while the intensity guidance spread is nearly 100 kt.\nAlthough the NHC track and intensity forecasts have not been changed\nvery much, this should not be interpreted as increasing confidence\nin the forecast.\n\nWith regard to track, there is a clear split in the model guidance\nregarding the speed of Isaac. The GFS and ECMWF models forecast that\na mid-level ridge to the north will accelerate the hurricane\nwestward for the next 36 h, with a westward motion continuing\nthrough day 5 as the ridge is reinforced in the wake of Florence. On\nthe other hand, the UKMET and HWRF models show a weakness developing\nin the ridge which causes Isaac to move much slower, and eventually\nturn northward. The NHC forecast has been favoring the former\nsolution, and continues to do so with this advisory since I see no\nreason to make a drastic change to the forecast at this point.\n\nIsaac is a very small hurricane, which makes the intensity forecast\nparticularly tricky since small storms are susceptible to rapid\nchanges of intensity, up and down. Since the wind shear is expected\nto remain low, and Isaac is forecast to remain over fairly warm SSTs\nfor the next 48 h, the current forecast of further intensification\nseems reasonable, and the NHC forecast is still at the top end of\nthe guidance envelope. From 72 h onward, there could be a sudden,\nand substantial increase in wind shear associated first with an\nupper-level trough to the north, and later with the outflow of\nHurricane Florence.  Assuming this shear affects Isaac as expected,\nthe tiny hurricane would likely weaken quickly, perhaps even faster\nthan currently shown in the forecast.  By the end of the forecast\nperiod, the NHC forecast remains a fair amount below the intensity\nconsensus, closer to the weakening solutions of the GFS and ECMWF.\n\nKey Messages:\n1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is\nhigher than normal.  Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening\nby Tuesday when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still\nexpected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the\nislands.\n\n2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac\nduring the next few days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 14.5N  41.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 14.7N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 14.9N  46.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.0N  49.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 15.0N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 15.2N  57.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 15.5N  63.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 15.5N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018\n\nPaul is looking very ragged this evening.  The low-level center has\nbecome completely exposed, with the nearest deep convection\ndisplaced about 70 n mi to its southwest.  The intensity has been\nheld at 40 kt, deferring to earlier ASCAT data which showed a wide\nswath of 35-40 kt winds.  Given the structure of Paul, any\nintensification seems very unlikely, so gradual weakening is now\nforecast through the end of the period.  By day 4, a combination of\ncold SSTs and dry, stable air should cause the cyclone to become a\nremnant low.  The new NHC forecast shows faster weakening than\nbefore, and is now closer to the intensity consensus through 120 h.\n\nThe low-level swirl that makes up most of Paul has wobbled a bit\nthis evening, but a longer-term motion estimate is still\nnorthwestward, or 320/9 kt.  The global models are in good agreement\nthat Paul will continue northwestward for another day or so, before\ngradually turning westward as it weakens and eventually becomes a\nremnant low.  No significant changes were made to the track\nforecast, which remains very near the multi-model consensus\nthroughout the forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 19.4N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 20.4N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 21.2N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 22.4N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 23.1N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0000Z 23.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":44,"Date":"2018-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  44...CORRECTED\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nCorrected to reflect that the 96 hour forecast point is inland.\n\nFlorence is rapidly strengthening this morning.  The satellite\npresentation has improved markedly overnight with a small 10-n-mi\nwide-eye becoming apparent in infrared satellite pictures.  The\nupper-level outflow continues to expand over the northern and\nnorthwestern portions of the storm, but is somewhat restricted over\nthe southeastern quadrant.  Dvorak satellite classifications from\nTAFB and SAB supported an intensity of around 80 kt at 0600 UTC, but\nwith the cooling of the cloud tops around the eye since that time,\nthe initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt for this advisory.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-northwestward\n(285 degrees), and is moving at a slightly faster forward speed of\n8 kt.  A high pressure ridge building to the north and northwest of\nFlorence is expected to steer the hurricane west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward at a much faster forward speed over the southwest\nAtlantic during the next few days. After that time, a building\nridge over the Ohio Valley is expected to cause a gradual reduction\nin the forward speed of the cyclone as it approaches the\nsoutheastern United States coastline.  The latest run of the ECMWF\nhas shifted southwestward, along with its ensemble suite, while\nthere was little overall change in the GFS and its ensemble.  On\nthe other hand, the UKMET shifted northeastward and is now along\nthe right side of the guidance envelope.  With these changes to the\nguidance, the overall spread has increased this cycle, however, the\ncorrected consensus aids (FSSE and HCCA) are not much different\nthan before, and the NHC track again follows these models very\nclosely.  Users are cautioned to not focus on the exact forecast\ntrack as the average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140\nand 180 n mi, respectively.\n\nFlorence will be traversing very warm SSTs of around 29C and\nremain within a very favorable upper-level environment during the\nnext couple of days.  These conditions are expected to lead to\nsignificant strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and\nFlorence is forecast to be a very powerful major hurricane on\nits approach to the southeastern United States.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is slightly above all of the intensity guidance during the\nfirst 24 hours, and is then a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.\nThe global model guidance also increases the size of Florence's wind\nfield during the next few days, and this has been reflected in\nthe NHC wind radii forecast.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV jet is conducting another synoptic surveillance\nmission this morning in support of the 1200 UTC model cycle, and\nthese flights will continue through Tuesday. A NOAA P-3 Hurricane\nHunter aircraft is also scheduled to conduct a research mission\ninto Florence this morning, with Air Force C-130 fix missions\nbeginning late this afternoon.  Additional upper-air data are\nbeing collected across portions of the central and eastern U.S.\nvia special 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches.  Hopefully\nthese data will help improve the track and intensity forecasts.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening impacts from\nFlorence: storm surge at the coast, freshwater flooding from a\nprolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall event inland, and\ndamaging hurricane-force winds. While it is too soon to determine\nthe exact timing, location, and magnitude of these impacts,\ninterests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into the\nmid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of Florence,\nensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow any\nadvice given by local officials.\n\n2. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week.  These swells will result in\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 24.9N  58.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 25.4N  60.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 26.1N  63.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 27.3N  66.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 28.8N  69.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 32.2N  74.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 34.5N  78.1W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\n120H  15/0600Z 35.8N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  12...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nCorrected to change Paul to Isaac in third paragraph\n\nLittle change in the Helene's cloud pattern has been observed\nduring the past 6 hours.  The earlier mentioned ragged banding-type\neye feature is still apparent in the enhanced infrared BD-curve\nimagery and a recent SSMI/S microwave overpass.  The initial\nintensity is held at 75 kt, and is based on the subjective Dvorak\nintensity estimates.\n\nHelene is moving within a fairly ripe environment and over warm\noceanic sea surface temperatures.  These conducive conditions\nshould promote additional strengthening over the next 36 hours.\nAfterward, increasing south-southwesterly shear, lower\nmid-tropospheric moisture, and cooler water are expected to induce\nweakening, however gradually, through day 5.  The official forecast\nfollows suit and is similar to the better performing IVCN intensity\nconsensus model.\n\nHelene's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or\n285/15 kt, and this general motion is forecast during the next 48\nhours.  Beyond that period, a break in the subtropical ridge to the\nnorthwest of Isaac, created by a mid- to upper-level cut-off low\ndigging southward, should induce a northward turn with a gradual\nincrease in forward motion.  The large-scale models all indicate\nthis change in the synoptic steering pattern, although there is some\ndisparity on how soon Helene will turn toward the north.  The NHC\ntrack is quite close to the previous forecast and lies between the\nconsensus guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 14.3N  28.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 14.8N  30.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.5N  33.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 16.3N  35.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 17.2N  37.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 20.3N  39.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 25.3N  40.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  15/0600Z 31.2N  41.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Isaac Discussion Number  11...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nCorrected intensity forecast in table below.\n\nIsaac has generally changed little during the past several hours.\nThe small hurricane continues to have a central dense overcast\nfeature with some fragmented bands to the south of the center.  The\nDvorak classifications remain 4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and\ntherefore, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt.\n\nIsaac is moving westward at 11 kt.  The models remain in poor\nagreement this cycle as they are split into two camps.  The UKMET,\nHWRF, and a few other models show Isaac recurving near or to the\neast of the Lesser Antilles toward a developing trough over the\ncentral Atlantic.  Conversely, the GFS and ECMWF have been very\nconsistent in showing a due westward motion across the Lesser\nAntilles and into the Caribbean as the cyclone moves on the south\nside of a strengthening mid-level ridge.  The NHC track forecast\ncontinues to favor the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models,\nand this forecast is near a blend of those aids.  It should be\nnoted, however, that confidence in this track forecast is low given\nthe model spread.\n\nThe intensity forecast is also quite uncertain.  One of the complex\nfactors is Isaac's compact size as small hurricanes like this one\nare more prone to quick intensity changes, both up and down.  In\naddition, the intensity guidance is in poor agreement as solutions\nrange from steady weakening from this point onward to the HWRF that\nshows Isaac becoming a major hurricane.  Given that the wind shear\nis expected to remain less than 10 kt for another day or two,\nstrengthening is forecast during that time period.  After that,\nhowever, an increase in shear first from a trough over the central\nAtlantic and later from the outflow from Florence should result in\nweakening when the system moves across the Lesser Antilles and into\nthe Caribbean Sea.  The NHC intensity forecast is not too different\nfrom the previous one and lies above the model consensus in the\nshort term, but below it at the later forecast times.  This\nforecast is in best agreement with the latest LGEM guidance.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is\nhigher than normal.  Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening\nwhen it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be\nat or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands.\n\n2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac\nduring the next few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 14.7N  42.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 14.8N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.0N  47.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.0N  50.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 15.0N  53.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 15.3N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 15.5N  64.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/0600Z 15.6N  69.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nPaul's poorly defined surface circulation remains displaced well to\nthe east of an intermittent burst of deep convection.  A 0448 UTC\nASCAT-A pass covering the western semicircle showed only 30 kt\nwinds. Based on the scatterometer pass, and a blend of the\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier\n0228 UTC SATCON analysis of 37 kt, the initial intensity is lowered\nto 35 kt.\n\nThe UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates 15-20 kt of east-northeasterly\nshear impeding the eastern side of the cyclone.  The Decay SHIPS\nintensity model shows the shear diminishing within the next 24 hours\nor so, however, Paul will be moving over cooler waters and into a\nmore stable thermodynamic environment.  Therefore, weakening is\nforecast in 36 hours, or less, and Paul is expected to degenerate\ninto a remnant low in 3 days. The intensity forecast is similar to\nthe previous advisory and is based on the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN\nconsensus models.\n\nThe exposed surface circulation continues to move a bit erratically\nthis morning, but the 12 hour motion is an uncertain northwestward,\nor 320/8 kt.  Paul should continue to move within the mid-level\nsteering flow produced by a ridge to the north through day 3, then\na turn westward is indicated as the vertically shallower cyclone\nmoves within the low-level trades.  The NHC track forecast is an\nupdate of the last one, and agrees with the various consensus\nguidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 20.1N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 20.8N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 22.1N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 22.5N 125.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 23.4N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0600Z 23.6N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0600Z 23.6N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":45,"Date":"2018-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nFlorence is quickly becoming a powerful hurricane.  Satellite images\nshow that the distinct eye has warmed in the center, with convection\nincreasing in the eyewall during the past several hours. The initial\nwind speed is set to 100 kt, closest to the CIMSS-ADT value.  A NOAA\nHurricane Hunter will be in the area later this morning for a more\naccurate estimate.\n\nThe hurricane is moving over progressively warmer waters over\nthe next couple of days, with water temperatures peaking near 85F.\nIn combination with the low vertical wind shear in the forecast\nduring that time, Florence should continue to strengthen, and all\nmodels show it becoming a category 4 hurricane by tomorrow.  The\ncorrected-consensus guidance has done quite well with this\nintensification episode, and I don't see any reason to deviate much\nfrom them at this time.  As Florence approaches the southeastern\nUnited States, there will likely be fluctuations in intensity from\neyewall cycles, but even if this occurs, the hurricane's wind field\nis expected to grow with time, increasing the storm surge and inland\nwind threats.  The bottom line is that there is increasing\nconfidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous\nhurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.\n\nDuring the last several hours, Florence has turned westward again,\nestimated at 11 kt.  The steering currents are becoming well-\ndefined as as a very strong ridge builds over the northwestern\nAtlantic Ocean, forcing Florence to move faster toward the\nwest-northwest during the next couple of days.  By late Wednesday,\na turn toward the northwest is possible due to the orientation of\nthe Atlantic ridge, along with a slight decrease in forward speed\ndue to a new ridge building over the Great Lakes.  The various\nmodels are shifting around at long range, but the model consensus\nhas barely budged in the past few model cycles.  Thus the new NHC\nforecast is close to the previous one, near the NOAA and FSSE\nconsensus guidance.  It is important not to focus on the exact\nforecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about 140\nand 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well\naway from the center.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and\na Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by\nTuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the\nmid-Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in\nplace and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged\nand exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over\nthe Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is\nexpected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch\nwill likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also\nspread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 25.0N  60.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 25.5N  61.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 26.4N  64.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 27.8N  67.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 29.5N  71.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 33.0N  76.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 35.0N  79.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n120H  15/1200Z 36.0N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nHelene's cloud pattern has become much better organized during the\npast few hours, with a clear 20 n mi wide eye seen in Meteosat\ninfrared imagery, and a clear eye noted in a 1135 UTC AMSU overpass.\nA Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T5.0/90 knots\nat 1200 UTC, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory.\nHelene will remain in an environment that should support some\nadditional strengthening for the next 12 hours or so, with very low\nshear and SSTs of 27C or above. After that time, the SSTs cool\nquickly and the shear increases dramatically by 36 hours, which\nshould induce steady weakening. Late in the period, the shear\ncontinues, and while SSTs increase the atmosphere dries out, and the\nintensity is held steady at day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast is\nabove most of the guidance through 24 hours to account for the\nrecent intensification of the storm, but then is close to or\nslightly above HCCA and IVCN.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/14. The subtropical ridge north\nof Helene will gradually weaken as an upper-level trough digs\nsouthward around 40W. This pattern will cause Helene to slow down\nand gradually recurve during the forecast period, with a faster\nnorthward motion expected at days 4 and 5 as Helene interacts with\nthe aforementioned upper-level trough. While there is significant\nvariability between the various global models in the exact\nevolution of the upper-level pattern, the track model guidance is\nin generally good agreement on this evolution, although the UKMET,\nits ensemble mean and the GEFS mean are notable outliers to the\nright. The new NHC track was not changed much from the previous one\nand lies near the middle of the guidance envelope and is close to\nHCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 14.6N  30.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.2N  32.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.9N  34.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 16.8N  36.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 18.0N  37.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 21.5N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 27.0N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  15/1200Z 32.5N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Isaac Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nIsaac's cloud pattern is currently a bit ragged-looking, with an\nirregular CDO and limited convective banding.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65 kt, and that value will be\nused for the advisory.  There is significant uncertainty in the\nintensity forecast for this system.  Vertical wind shear over the\nhurricane is forecast to be weak to moderate during the next day or\nso, which should allow Isaac to strengthen somewhat.  By 48 hours,\nhowever, the global models depict significantly stronger\nnorthwesterly shear, associated with an upper-level trough over the\ncentral Atlantic, affecting the tropical cyclone.  Most of the\nguidance does not show Isaac strengthening over the Caribbean.  The\nHWRF model is an outlier, strengthening Isaac into a major hurricane\nlater in the period, and it is the main contributor to high\nconsensus forecasts at days 3-5.  The NHC intensity forecast is\nabove the model consensus through 72 hours and below it by the end\nof the period.\n\nIsaac continues to move westward, or 275/12 kt.  A subtropical\nridge should be maintained to the north of the tropical cyclone for\nthe next several days, so a continued westward track seems likely.\nThe U. K. Met. Office model is an outlier and shows Isaac turning\nnorthwestward and northward to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.\nThe official track forecast, like the previous one, follows the\nother reliable global models and is also close to the HFIP corrected\nconsensus guidance.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the forecast is\ngreater than normal.  Although Isaac is forecast to begin weakening\nwhen it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be\nat or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands.\n\n2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac\nduring the next few days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 14.7N  43.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 14.9N  45.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.0N  48.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.0N  51.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 15.1N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 15.4N  59.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 15.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/1200Z 15.7N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Paul Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 AM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nPaul continues to have its low-level center displaced on the\nnortheast side of the main area of deep convection.  This\nconvection is not well organized and there is little or no evidence\nof banding features.  The current intensity estimate remains 35 kt,\nwhich is a blend of subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB\nalong with an ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS.  Over the next few\ndays, Paul will be moving into a drier air mass and over a cooler\nocean.  This should cause weakening, and the system if forecast to\ndegenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner\n\nThere is significant spread in the center fixes, so the initial\nmotion is a rather uncertain 320/9 kt.  A gradual turn to the\nwest-northwest is forecast due to a mid-level ridge the north of\nPaul.  Later in the period, the increasingly shallow cyclonic\ncirculation should turn more to the west, following the low-level\nflow.  The official forecast is similar to the previous NHC track\nan close to the correct model consensus, HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 20.8N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 21.4N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 22.3N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 22.7N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 23.5N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1200Z 23.8N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":46,"Date":"2018-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nUnfortunately, the models were right. Florence has rapidly\nintensified into an extremely dangerous hurricane, with 30-second\nGOES-16 visible imagery showing well-defined eyewall mesovortices\nrotating inside of the eye. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found\npeak SFMR winds of about 120 kt, with flight-level winds and\ndropsonde measurements also supporting that value for the initial\nwind speed estimate. Notably, the aircraft data also show the size\nof the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.\n\nNone of the guidance suggest that Florence has peaked in intensity,\nand this is supported by a continuation of a low-shear environment,\nand even warmer waters over the next 36 hours.  Thus, the intensity\nforecast is raised from the previous one, bringing Florence close\nto category 5 strength tomorrow. Near landfall, the vertical wind\nshear could increase, along with the increasing likelihood of\neyewall cycles.  While the intensity forecast shows some weakening\nof the maximum winds near landfall, the wind field is expected to\ngrow with time, which increases the storm surge and inland wind\nthreats.  The bottom line is that there is high confidence that\nFlorence will be a large and extremely dangerous hurricane,\nregardless of its exact intensity.\n\nFlorence has recently turned west-northwestward, still moving at 11\nkt. The hurricane is expected to accelerate in that direction over\nthe next day or two due to building mid-level ridge over the\nnorthwestern Atlantic Ocean.  By late Wednesday, a turn toward the\nnorthwest is forecast due to the orientation of the Atlantic ridge,\nalong with a decrease in forward speed due to a new ridge building\nover the Great Lakes.  There is a new player in the forecast as\nwell, with the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean adding\nsome uncertainty in the ridge strength over the southeastern United\nStates.  Perhaps it isn't surprising that the model spread has\nincreased on this cycle, with a small eastward shift overall.  The\nofficial forecast is nudged in the direction of the trend, but is\nwest of the model consensus.  It is important not to focus on the\nexact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 4 and 5 are about\n140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend\nwell away from the center.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance\nmissions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special\n0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to\nadditional upper-air stations across the U.S. are to collect extra\ndata for the numerical models.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and\na Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by\nTuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-\nAtlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in\nplace and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged\nand exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over\nthe Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is\nexpected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch\nwill likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also\nspread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 25.4N  61.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  63.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 27.0N  66.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 28.6N  69.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 30.4N  72.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 33.7N  77.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 35.6N  78.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n120H  15/1800Z 36.5N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nHelene's cloud pattern continues to be well organized with a large\neye of about 20 nm in diameter, surrounded by a ring of deep\nconvection.  The cyclone's circulation is large with numerous\ncyclonically curved convective bands, and the outflow is fair in all\nquadrants. Dvorak classifications have not changed much, and support\nan initial intensity of 90 kt.\n\nHelene has the opportunity to strengthen some during the next 24\nhours or so, while the shear is low and the ocean is still\nrelatively warm. After that time, both shear and SSTs will become\nless favorable and gradual weakening should then begin. The NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows\nclosely the intensity consensus aids.\n\nHelene is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 15 kt.\nSoon, the hurricane will encounter a mid-level trough which the most\nreliable global models are forming in the eastern Atlantic.\nThis new flow pattern will force Helene to turn to the northwest\nand north ahead of the developing trough.  Track models are quite\nconsistent with this solution and the the spread of the guidance\nenvelope is small through the forecast period.  This increases the\nconfidence in the Helene's northward turn, followed by recurvature\nover the eastern Atlantic.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 14.9N  31.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 15.5N  33.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 16.4N  35.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 17.5N  37.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 19.0N  38.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 23.0N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 28.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  15/1800Z 34.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Isaac Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nIsaac has not become better organized today.  The system continues\nto display a ragged CDO with limited banding features.  Dvorak\nT-numbers from both TAFB and SAB continue to support an intensity of\n65 kt.  It is not clear why Isaac has failed to strengthen.  Cirrus\nmotions and microwave imagery suggest some shear over the tropical\ncyclone, which may have had some influence.  Isaac should not\nexperience a significant increase in shear until about 48 hours, so\nsome strengthening is called for up to that time.  Thereafter, the\ndynamical guidance shows a significant increase in shear, which\nshould reverse the intensity trend.  The HWRF model continues to be\nan outlier in predicting significant intensification over the\nCaribbean, whereas the other models do not.  The official intensity\nforecast is above the model consensus over the first half of the\nperiod, and below the consensus during the latter part of the\nperiod, considering the HWRF could be making the consensus too high\nat days 3-5.\n\nIsaac continues moving westward or 270/12 kt.  There continue to be\na few differences among the track guidance, in particular the U.K.\nMet, which shows the system turning northwestward to northward well\nto the northeast of the Leeward Islands.   The GFS takes the\nsystem into the Caribbean but shows a more west-northwestward\nmotion.  The official forecast stays close to the ECMWF and the\ncorrected consensus predictions, which is very similar to the\nprevious NHC track.  Given the spread in the guidance, the\nconfidence in the details of the track forecast beyond the first\ncouple of days is larger than usual.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is a small hurricane and uncertainty in the intensity\nforecast is greater than normal.  Although Isaac is expected to\nbegin weakening when it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still\nlikely to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the\nislands.\n\n2. Interests in the Lesser  Antilles should continue to monitor\nIsaac during the next few days.  Watches will likely be required for\nportions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 14.4N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 14.5N  47.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 14.6N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 14.6N  52.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 14.8N  54.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 15.3N  60.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 15.5N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/1800Z 15.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Paul Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nPaul continues to have a rather ragged appearance in satellite\nimagery. The low-level center is completely exposed to the east of a\nlimited area of deep convection. A pair of recent ASCAT passes\nshowed maximum winds of just below tropical-storm-force, so the\ninitial intensity has been held at 35 kt, assuming at least a\nlittle undersampling may have occurred due to limitations of the\ninstrument. All of the intensity guidance continues to show\nweakening, and Paul is forecast to become a tropical depression\nlater tonight, and a remnant low within the next few days. Given the\ncold SSTs and dry air ahead of Paul, it is certainly possible that\nPaul could become a remnant low or dissipate sooner than currently\nforecast.\n\nNo major changes have been made to the previous official track\nforecast. Paul is still moving toward the northwest with an initial\nmotion of 315/9 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest should\nbegin shortly as Paul is steered increasingly by low-level\ntrade-wind flow. By the end of the forecast period, the remnant\ncirculation of Paul should slow down and turn westward. The new\nofficial track forecast is basically a blend of the previous\nforecast and HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 21.3N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky/Ramos\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":47,"Date":"2018-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nThe rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last\nadvisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb.  Since\nthat time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the\nlatest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft is near 944 mb.  The initial intensity will remain a\npossibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft\nwinds.  Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an\neyewall replacement cycle.  However, the winds from the Hurricane\nHunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall.\n\nFlorence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea\nsurface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h.  Thus,\nthere is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the\nhurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the\nintensity guidance.  The new intensity forecast calls for continued\nstrengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate\nthan what occurred during the last 30 h.  Florence is expected to\nencounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could\ncause slight weakening before landfall.  However, there remains high\nconfidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous\nhurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.\n\nThe initial motion is 290/11.  A building mid-level ridge over the\nnorthwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Florence\nwest-northwestward to northwestward with an increase in forward\nspeed during the next 48 h.  After that time, a marked decrease in\nforward speed is likely as another ridge builds over the Great\nLakes to the north of Florence.  The track guidance continues to\nshow some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope\nand the GFS on the right side.  Overall, though, the guidance has\nagain shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are\nnudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast.  It is\nimportant not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC\nerrors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,\nrespectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the\ncenter.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance\nmissions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special\n0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to\nadditional upper-air stations across the U.S. to collect extra data\nfor the numerical models.  The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane\nHunter mission into Florence is scheduled for near 12Z.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and\na Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by\nTuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-\nAtlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in\nplace and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged\nand exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over\nthe Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is\nexpected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch\nwill likely be issued by Tuesday morning.  Damaging winds could also\nspread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 25.9N  62.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 26.5N  64.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 27.9N  67.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 29.6N  70.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 31.3N  73.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 34.0N  76.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 35.5N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n120H  16/0000Z 36.5N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nHelene remains a well organized hurricane with a fairly large 25 n\nmi diameter eye and ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that\nfeature.  There are a few dry slots beyond the inner core, however,\nwhich have prevented some of the Dvorak estimates from increasing\nthis cycle.  A blend of the latest subjective and objective\nsatellite intensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity\nslightly to 95 kt.\n\nThe hurricane has a limited amount of time to strengthen as the\ncurrent environment of low wind shear and relatively warm SSTs will\nbe changing soon.  Helene is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm\nwithin 24 hours and it will enter an environment of increasing\nsouth-southwesterly shear just beyond that time period.  These\nconditions should promote a steady weakening trend beginning late\nTuesday.  By the end of the forecast period, however, SSTs increase\nalong the forecast track, and there could be some baroclinic\nenhancements to end the weakening trend and perhaps even cause some\nstrengthening.  This scenario is supported by the HWRF/HMON regional\nmodels and the GFS/ECMWF global models.  The NHC intensity forecast\nis largely an update of the previous one, except it is slightly\nhigher at the end of the period.\n\nThe hurricane is gradually turning to the right, with the latest\ninitial motion estimate being 295/13 kt.  A large mid- to\nupper-level trough over the north Atlantic is expected to dig\nsouthward causing a significant weakness in the subtropical ridge.\nIn response to this change in the steering pattern, Helene is\nforecast to gradually turn northward and then north-northeastward\nduring the next several days.  The track models are in fairly good\nagreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the\nguidance envelope.  This forecast is only a little to the right of\nthe previous track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.5N  32.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 16.2N  34.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 17.2N  35.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 18.6N  37.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 20.1N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 24.6N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 30.0N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  16/0000Z 36.2N  34.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nSeveral microwave images that arrived after the issuance of the last\nadvisory revealed that the low-level center of Isaac has raced ahead\nof the main convective mass, and the system is poorly vertically\naligned. The system also recently passed very near NOAA buoy 41041,\nwhich confirmed that the center is on the western side of the\ncentral dense overcast. The maximum winds observed by the buoy were\nonly about 30 kt, with a minimum pressure of near 1001 mb. Due to\nthe western adjustment of the center location, the latest Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB is lower, and a blend of the TAFB final-T\nand CI-numbers supports a lower initial intensity of 60 kt. It is\nworth noting that this estimate is more uncertain than normal due to\nlimitations of the Dvorak technique, and most of the other intensity\nestimates are higher. Given the high pressure and light winds at the\nbuoy, I am inclined to favor the lower estimate at this time.\n\nConfidence in the track forecast is slightly higher now, and the\nUKMET is the only outlier that does not bring Isaac westward into\nthe Caribbean within the next 72 h or so. There is still some\ndisagreement on the speed of Isaac, especially once it crosses the\nLeeward Islands, and this seems largely related to the cyclone's\nintensity. The ECMWF and GFS depict a weakening storm that simply\ncontinues westward, while the HWRF and CTCI show strengthening as\nIsaac slows down and turns more west-northwestward. The NHC track\nforecast for now continues to favor the typically more reliable\nglobal models and shows a steady westward motion through day 5. The\nupdated NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory,\ndue primarily to the westward adjustment of the initial position,\nand remains close to HCCA.\n\nA slight adjustment has been made to the intensity forecast, but\nconfidence in the intensity forecast remains quite low. Due to the\ncurrent structure of Isaac, it seems less likely that the tropical\nstorm will intensify more than what is shown by the intensity\nguidance over the next 24-48 h. The NHC forecast has therefore been\nlowered slightly, but it is still near the top end of the guidance,\nand calls for Isaac to be a hurricane when it approaches the\nLeeward Islands later this week. It is also worth noting that the\nsmall size of Isaac could make it more susceptible to sudden\nshort-term changes in intensity that are nearly impossible to\nforecast. The intensity spread is tremendous by the end of the\nforecast period, with multiple models showing Isaac becoming a major\nhurricane around day 4 or 5, and others showing outright\ndissipation. The NHC forecasts have been favoring a weaker solution\nthus far due to an expected increase in shear beginning in a couple\nof days, and I see no reason to make a dramatic change at this\npoint.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it\napproaches the Lesser Antilles. However, confidence in the forecast\nis lower than normal.\n\n2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor\nIsaac during the next few days. Watches will likely be required for\nportions of the Lesser Antilles tomorrow.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 14.5N  46.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 14.5N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 14.6N  51.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 14.8N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 15.0N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 15.4N  62.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 15.5N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  16/0000Z 15.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018\n\nPaul remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the associated deep\nconvection limited to the western portion of the circulation.  The\ncenter of the system is completely exposed and the Dvorak\nclassifications have decreased from all agencies.  Based on that\ndata, Paul is now downgraded to a tropical depression with an\ninitial intensity of 30 kt.  Although the wind shear is expected to\nlessen during the next couple of days, Paul will soon cross the 26\ndeg C isotherm and it will be headed for even cooler waters and a\ndrier airmass during the next few days. These conditions support\ncontinued weakening, and Paul will likely become a remnant low in a\ncouple of days or less.\n\nThe depression has turned toward the west-northwest, with the\ninitial motion estimated to be 300/8 kt.  A gradual turn toward the\nwest is expected during the next few days as the cyclone becomes\nincreasingly shallow and is steered by the low-level flow.  The new\nNHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous\none to come into better agreement with the latest consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 21.6N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 21.9N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 22.3N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 22.6N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 22.9N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0000Z 23.2N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0000Z 23.2N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":48,"Date":"2018-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nRecent satellite imagery shows that the eye of Florence has become\ncloud filled and an earlier 0441 UTC microwave overpass revealed a\ndouble eyewall structure.  These observations suggest that an\neyewall replacement cycle is likely underway.  Subjective and\nobjective Dvorak current intensity numbers have not changed\nso the initial intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory.\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is en route to the\nstorm and should provide a better assessment of Florence's\nstructure and intensity this morning.  NOAA buoy 41049 located\nabout 80 nmi north of the eye, has reported tropical-storm-force\nwinds during the last several hours and seas as high as 23 ft.\n\nFlorence's upper-level environment is predicted to remain quite\nfavorable while the storm traverses sea surface temperatures of\naround 29C over the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is\nforecast during this time, but some fluctuations in intensity are\nlikely due to eyewall replacement cycles.  The updated NHC intensity\nforecast once again calls for additional intensification and brings\nFlorence to near category 5 strength within the next 24 to 36\nhours. After 48 hours, a slight increase in southwesterly\nshear could result in some weakening, but Florence is expected to\nremain an extremely dangerous hurricane when it approaches the U.S.\ncoastline.\n\nFlorence has accelerated as anticipated and is now moving\nwest-northwestward or 290 degrees at 13 kt.  The track forecast\nreasoning has not changed much.  A mid-level ridge to the northeast\nof Bermuda is expected steer Florence quickly west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward toward the southeast United States coast over the next\n2 to 3 days.  By 72 hours, a high pressure ridge building over the\nUpper-Midwest and Great Lakes regions is forecast to cause a\nsignificant reduction in Florence's forward speed and the hurricane\nis predicted to meander over the eastern portions of North or South\nCarolina at days 4 and 5.  The ECMWF has trended slower this cycle\nat days 4 and 5, and as a result the NHC forecast shows slightly\nless motion at those time periods.  The spread in the guidance\nincreases by 72 hours, with the GFS and its ensemble mean along the\nright side of the guidance, while the ECMWF remains along the left\nedge.  It should be noted that there are still a number of ECMWF\nmembers that are even farther left.  The NHC track forecast has been\nnudged to the left and is close to the TVCN consensus aid. Given the\namount of uncertainty by day 3, it is important not to focus on the\nexact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are\nabout 100, 140 and 180 n mi, respectively, and dangerous hazards\nwill extend well away from the center.  Storm Surge and Hurricane\nwatches have been issued for a portion of the coast of South and\nNorth Carolina. Additional watches may be required later today.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and\na Storm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of this area.\nAll interests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region\nshould ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow\nany advice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged\nand exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over\nthe Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is\nexpected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch\nhas been issued for a part of this area.  Damaging winds could also\nspread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 26.4N  64.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 27.2N  66.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 28.7N  69.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 30.5N  72.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 32.2N  74.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z 34.3N  77.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  15/0600Z 35.2N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  16/0600Z 36.0N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nAn Advanced Microwave Technology Sounder (ATMS) 165GHZ overpass on\nHelene indicated a well-developed closed eyewall and a deep\nconvective outer band with associated cold cloud tops of -76C\nwrapping around the south through east quadrants of the cyclone.\nThe initial intensity is held at 95 kt for this advisory and is\nbased on a blend of the subjective and objective T-numbers.\n\nThere still appears to be a small window of opportunity for Helene\nto strengthen, during the next 12 hours or so, before the ocean and\nthe upper wind environment become less conducive.  Afterward, the\nSSTs decrease significantly and the vertical shear increases, which\nshould induce gradual weakening.  By day 3, the sea surface\ntemperatures increase, however, the southwesterly shear persists and\nthe mid-level atmospheric moisture decreases.  Interestingly\nenough, the global models show Helene either maintaining tropical\nstorm strength or even intensifying by the end of the period,\npossibly due to some mid-latitude dynamic forcing influences.  It's\nalso worth noting that the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution\nanalysis and forecast product shows the system retaining a\nrelatively symmetric warm core through the entire forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/12\nkt.  A turn more toward the northwest is forecast early on\nWednesday.  Beyond mid-period, the large-scale models agree that a\nmid- to upper tropospheric trough over the northeast Atlantic will\ndig southward inducing a weakness in the eastern portion of the\nsubtropical ridge.  In response to this change in the synoptic\nsteering pattern, Helene should slowly turn northward and then\nnorth-northeastward during the next 72 to 96 hours, followed by a\nturn toward the northeast on day 5.  The official forecast is close\nto the previous one, and lies near the TVCN consensus model and the\nGFS ensemble mean.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 16.0N  33.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 16.8N  35.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 18.0N  36.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 19.5N  37.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 21.4N  38.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z 25.7N  38.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  15/0600Z 31.4N  36.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  16/0600Z 37.3N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nIsaac has not changed much overnight.  Satellite images indicate\nthat the strong tropical storm still has a central dense overcast\npattern and a limited amount of outer bands.  Earlier microwave\ndata indicated that the center was not located in the middle of the\nconvection, however, likely due to some westerly shear.  Since\nthe cyclone has changed little during the past several hours, the\ninitial intensity is held at 60 kt, which is an average of the TAFB\nand SAB Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers.  A nearby NOAA buoy shows\nthat the wind field of Isaac is very compact, with tropical-storm-\nforce winds only extending up to 40 n mi from the center.\n\nSatellite fixes suggest that Isaac continues to move westward at 13\nkt.  Although there remains a fair amount of spread in the models,\nthe usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models continue to show a\nwestward motion during the next several days as the storm moves on\nthe south side of a strengthening mid-level ridge.  The NHC track\nforecast continues to follow that theme, and this forecast lies\nnear a blend of the GFS and ECMWF aids.  This forecast is a little\nslower than the previous one, and takes Isaac across the Lesser\nAntilles and into the eastern Caribbean in 2 to 3 days.\n\nPredicting Isaac's intensity has been challenging.  Isaac appeared\nto have been in relatively favorable conditions during the past day\nor so, but it did not strengthen.  The upper-level pattern should\nremain relatively favorable for another day, so modest strengthening\nback to a hurricane is possible during that time.  Thereafter,\nhowever, an increase in shear first from a trough in the central\nAtlantic and then from the outflow of Florence should cause some\nweakening when the storm moves into the Caribbean.  The models\nare in a little better agreement this cycle as the HWRF is no\nlonger showing Isaac becoming a major hurricane.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is very similar to the previous one and is fairly close to\nthe consensus aids.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it\napproaches the Lesser Antilles.  However, confidence in the forecast\nis lower than normal.\n\n2. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor\nIsaac during the next couple of days. Watches will likely be\nrequired for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 14.6N  48.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 14.6N  50.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 14.6N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 14.8N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 15.1N  57.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z 15.5N  62.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  15/0600Z 15.6N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  16/0600Z 15.8N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nPaul's surface circulation continues to be decoupled well to the\neast of a rather shapeless convective mass that persists only as a\nresult of intermittent bursts of deep convection.  The cyclone's\nintensity is held at depression strength and is a compromise of the\nTAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak estimates.\n\nWithin the next 12 hours, Paul will be moving into a stable, drier\nair mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures.  This should\nsupport further weakening, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate\ninto a remnant low in 48 hours, which is indicated in the\nlarge-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/10\nkt, within the steering current produced by a mid-level ridge\nextending westward over the eastern Pacific from the Baja California\npeninsula.  A slow turn westward is forecast in 36 hours as the\nweakening cyclone becomes vertically more shallow and is steered by\nthe low-level easterly tradewind flow.  The official forecast is\nagain adjusted to the south of the previous package to conform more\nwith the TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 21.9N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 22.2N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 22.5N 126.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 23.0N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0600Z 23.2N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0600Z 23.2N 132.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":49,"Date":"2018-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  49\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nData from satellites and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance\naircraft mission indicate that Florence has completed an overnight\neyewall replacement cycle (ERC). The recon data indicate that the\neye has now expanded to a diameter of 30-32 n mi, and this was\nconfirmed by an 1103Z SSMI/S microwave satellite image. The aircraft\nprovided various intensity estimates with a peak SFMR surface wind\nof 113 kt noted in the northwest quadrant, a peak 700-mb\nflight-level wind of 143 kt in the northeast quadrant, and a central\npressure of 950 mb. The 143-kt flight-level wind would normally\ncorrelate to an equivalent surface wind of about 129 kt. However,\ncoincident SFMR surface winds were only 108 kt, indicating that the\nweak convection that region of the hurricane was not vigorous enough\nto bring down the strongest winds to the surface. The 950-mb central\npressures corespondents to about 113 kt. Based on a blend of all\nthese data, the initial intensity has been set to 115 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 295/14 kt based on the recent\nrecon fix data. The broken record continues -- there is no\nsignificant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Although\nthe global and regional models continue to make minor shifts\nnorthward and southward, the consensus models have changed little.\nGOES-16 high-resolution water vapor imagery indicates that the\namplifying large-scale flow pattern across CONUS is inducing a\ndownstream ridge over the western Atlantic, with a high pressure\ncell centered northwest of Bermuda. This blocking ridge pattern is\nexpected to keep Florence moving west-northwestward to northwest at\naround 15 kt for the next 48 hours or so. However, embedded within\nthe large-scale flow is a weak shortwave trough over the central and\nsouthern Plains that is expected to eject out northeastward and\nweaken the ridging across the mid-Atlantic and southeastern U.S.,\ncausing Florence to slow down significantly in 72 hours as the\npowerful hurricane approaches the Carolinas. On days 4 and 5, an\neven slower motion or drift to the west and northwest is forecast,\nwhich will exacerbate the heavy rainfall threat. The new NHC\nforecast track is just an update of the previous one, and basically\nlies the middle of the guidance envelope between the consensus\nmodels TVCA to the north and HCCA and FSSE to the south.\n\nWater vapor imagery indicates that Florence has finally developed\nthe much anticipated dual outflow pattern, with outflow jets noted\nin the northwestern and eastern quadrants. The latter outflow jet is\nflowing into an upper-level low, which is acting as an impressive\nmass sink near 25N/49W. These two outflow channels are producing\nsignificant deformation stretching across Florence's inner-core,\nwhich should aid in the re-strengthening process. Now that the eye\nhas become stable with a diameter of about 30 n mi and since\nFlorence is expected to remain in a low-shear environment of around\n5 kt and over above-average SSTs of 29.0-29.5 deg C, slow but steady\nstrengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours. By 48 h and\nbeyond, Florence's slow forward speed, coupled with the large eye\nand relatively shallow depth of the warm water should induce some\nupwelling beneath the cyclone that will initiate a slow weakening\ntrend. By 72 hours the vertical wind shear is expected to increase\nto near 20 kt from the southwest, which will cause more significant\nweakening to occur. However, given the large overall wind field of\nFlorence along with the large eye, only gradual weakening is\nexpected. Once Florence moves inland, the slow forward speed of 3-5\nkt will result in rapid spin down and weakening of the wind field.\nThe new official intensity forecast is above of all of the intensity\nguidance based on the aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow\npattern, and to maintain continuity with the previous forecast.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and a\nStorm Surge Watch is in effect for a portion of this area. All\ninterests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should\nensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant\nriver flooding is possible over portions of the Carolinas and\nMid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as\nFlorence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch\nis in effect for a part of this area.  Damaging winds could also\nspread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 26.7N  65.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 27.7N  67.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 29.4N  70.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 31.1N  73.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 32.6N  75.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z 34.2N  77.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  15/1200Z 35.0N  78.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n120H  16/1200Z 35.5N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nIt appears that Helene already peaked in intensity earlier this\nmorning with 95 kt.  The cloud pattern has not changed much, and\nstill consists of a large eye surrounded by deep convection.\nHowever, these convective tops have warmed a little, and\nconsequently Dvorak numbers have remained steady.  From now on,\nHelene will begin to move over increasingly cooler waters, and\nbecome embedded within higher shear in about a day.  These\nenvironmental conditions should result in weakening, and the NHC\nforecast calls for a decrease in the winds at the same rate as the\nintensity consensus aids.\n\nHelene has turned toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt.\nModels continue to erode the ridge to the north of the cyclone, and\nare also developing a large mid-level trough over eastern Atlantic.\nThis forecast flow pattern will force Helene to turn more toward the\nnorth-northwest and north ahead of the trough for the next 2 to 3\ndays.  After that time, the cyclone will recurve in the mid-\nlatitude westerlies, and will begin to lose tropical characteristics\nat the very long ranges. Track models are in very good agreement\nwith this solution. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the\nguidance envelope and in between HCCA and the multi-model consensus\naids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 16.5N  34.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 17.5N  35.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 18.9N  36.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 20.7N  37.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 22.5N  38.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z 27.5N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  15/1200Z 35.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  16/1200Z 40.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nOne-minute visible satellite data from GOES-16 indicate that\nthe center of Isaac remains on the westward edge of the central\ndense overcast. The initial wind speed is kept at 60 kt, which is a\ncompromise between the lower subjective estimates and higher ADTs\nand microwave estimates.  This is a more uncertain estimate than\nnormal due to the spread of the intensity fixes.  The initial wind\nand 12 ft seas radii have been expanded out to the north based on\nTAFB estimates and microwave data.\n\nThe intensity forecast continues to be tricky.  Westerly shear\nshould increase over the next couple of days, which would normally\ncause some weakening.  However this effect could be tempered by\nincreasing SSTs, mid-level moisture and instability in the path of\nthe storm.  Given our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes\nin marginal environments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed\nuncertainty, the official forecast will show no significant change\nin intensity for the next couple of days. Because of these\nuncertainties, a Hurricane Watch has been issued for many of the\nLeeward Islands, even though Isaac is not explicitly forecast to be\na hurricane.  Some weakening is indicated at long range after\nconsidering the global model trends in intensity, which have done\nfairly well for Isaac.\n\nThe latest initial motion estimate is 270/14.  Isaac is forecast to\nmove westward at about the same speed for the next few days due to\na mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic Ocean.  Other than the\nUKMET model, there is not much spread in the guidance, except with\nthe forward speed.  Given the strength of the ridge, the cyclone\nisn't likely to slow down much, so the official forecast is\nbasically along the previous forecast track but faster.  The\nuncertainty increases at long range, and is somewhat dependent on\nthe intensity of Isaac, but faster seems to be way to go given the\nweakening trend anticipated at that time.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it\napproaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and\ntropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.\nInterests in those areas should follow any advice given by their\nlocal officials.\n\n2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to\nmonitor Isaac during the next couple of days, as additional watches\ncould be needed for other islands.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 14.6N  49.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 14.6N  51.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 14.7N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 14.9N  57.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 15.1N  59.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z 15.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  15/1200Z 15.5N  71.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  16/1200Z 15.5N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 AM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nThe center of Paul remains to the east of a small area of deep\nconvection; a consequence of persistently northeasterly shear.  The\ninitial wind speed is kept at 30 kt using a blend of the latest\nDvorak estimates.  Slow weakening is anticipated as Paul moves into\na stable, drier air mass and over cooler sea surface temperatures.\nMost of the global models suggest deep convection will cease\ntomorrow, and remnant low status is indicated at that time.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/10\nkt.  A slow turn toward the west is forecast in 36 hours as the\nweakening cyclone becomes shallow and is steered by the low-level\neasterly tradewind flow.  The southward model trend from the\nprevious forecast continues this cycle, and the NHC forecast is\nadjusted in that direction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 22.3N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 22.5N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 22.8N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0000Z 23.1N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1200Z 23.2N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1200Z 23.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":50,"Date":"2018-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  50\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nMicrowave satellite data indicate that Florence completed a full\neyewall replacement cycle (ERC) a few hours ago, and recent visible\nand infrared imagery suggests that the eye has contracted slightly.\nOutflow continues to expand in all quadrants, and the outflow jets\nto the northwest and east have become better defined. Satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT are all\nT6.0/115 kt, and recent NHC objective intensity estimates are\nT6.2/120 kt. Given that the eye has mostly cleared out and has also\nwarmed to near 19 deg C, the initial intensity has been bumped\nupward to 120 kt, which could be conservative. All of the wind radii\nhad to be expanded/increased based on a blend of the earlier\nreconnaissance data and a 1430 UTC ASCAT scatterometer pass.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 300/15 kt. There remains no\nsignificant to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Overall,\nthe global and regional models have done a good job capturing the\nevolving synoptic- scale flow pattern across CONUS, with an\namplifying trough moving onshore the the northwestern U.S. coast,\nwhich is inducing downstream ridging across the northeastern U.S.\nand the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Water vapor imagery indicates\nthat the blocking high pressure northwest of Bermuda is continuing\nto build and shift slowly eastward. The 12Z GFS model made a\nsignificant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,\nand the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72\nhours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track\nshifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and\nregional models are indicating that the steering currents will\ncollapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.\ncoast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through\nthe weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite\nuncertain. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the\nprevious two advisory tracks, and lies the middle of the guidance\nenvelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and the HCCA\nand FSSE models to the south.\n\nDuring the next 24 hours or so, Florence is expected to remain in a\nvery favorable environment consisting of low shear near 5 kt, an\nexpanding upper-level outflow pattern, and above-average SSTs of\n29.0-29.5 deg C, which should result in additional strengthening.\nBy 48 h, the decreasing forward speed along with the large\ninner-core wind field should induce some upwelling and gradual\nweakening. Although the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity models\nare indicating an increase in the southwesterly shear to near 20 kt,\nthis could be due to the SHIPS model capturing Florence's own\nstrong outflow from the GFS and ECMWF model fields. Despite the\nweakening shown at 72 hours, Florence is still expected to remain a\ndangerous hurricane through landfall. After Florence moves inland,\nthe slow forward speed of less than 5 kt should cause a rapid spin\ndown and weakening of the hurricane's circulation. The new NHC\nintensity forecast is a little above the highest guidance based on\nthe aforementioned very favorable synoptic outflow pattern, and to\nmaintain continuity with the previous forecast.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All\ninterests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should\nensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant\nriver flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and\nMid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as\nFlorence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning\nhas been issued for a part of this area.  Damaging winds could also\nspread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 27.5N  67.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 28.7N  69.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 30.4N  72.1W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 32.1N  74.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 33.4N  76.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 34.5N  77.7W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 96H  15/1800Z 35.0N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n120H  16/1800Z 35.7N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nHelene is feeling the effects of cooler waters, and the convection\nsurrounding the distinct eye is weaker that earlier today.  Dvorak\nnumbers are decreasing, and only support an initial intensity of 90\nkt.  Both cooler waters and high shear will continue to impact the\nhurricane, and Helene will probably weaken to a tropical storm\nin about 36 hours or so.  The NHC forecast calls for a decrease in\nthe winds at the same rate as the intensity consensus aids.\n\nHelene is already on the southwestern side of the subtropical\nridge, and it is now moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at\n10 kt.  Global models continue to develop a large mid-level trough\nover eastern Atlantic, and the flow associated with this trough\nshould steer Helene north-northwestward and northward during the\nnext day to so. The cyclone should then recurve northeastward with\nan increase in forward speed and by Friday, a weakened Helene\nshould be approaching the Azores.  At the very long range, the\ncyclone will begin to lose tropical characteristics over the even\ncolder waters of the north Atlantic. There has been little change in\nthe track forecast since models have been very consistent with the\ncurrent solution.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 17.2N  34.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 18.3N  36.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 20.2N  37.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 22.3N  37.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 25.0N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 31.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  15/1800Z 39.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  16/1800Z 43.5N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nMicrowave and visible satellite data show that the center of Isaac\nis partially exposed on the western edge of the central dense\novercast.  Perhaps Isaac is a little weaker than earlier, but a\nblend of the latest subjective and objective estimates still gives\nan uncertain initial wind speed of about 60 kt.  We should have a\nbetter idea of the maximum winds by tomorrow morning when a NOAA\nHurricane Hunter enters the storm, or if we get lucky with a\nscatterometer pass this evening.\n\nIsaac is barely holding on in the face of increasing shear, which\nis much more evident in the 300-500 mb layer than a conventional\nanalysis at 200 mb.  However, convection could redevelop near the\ncenter while the storm moves over warming SSTs into a more moist and\nunstable environment east of the Lesser Antilles.  These\nconflicting factors lead to a forecast of little change in the winds\nof Isaac until the cyclone moves into the eastern Caribbean.  I\nshould mention that the short-term trend on satellite makes me think\nthe intensity forecast is too high over the next 36 hours.  Yet,\ngiven our limited skill in forecasting intensity changes in marginal\nenvironments, plus the 5 or 10 kt of initial wind speed uncertainty,\nthis is the course of least regret.  We can see if this trend\nbecomes more consistent before making substantial changes on the\nnext advisory.  Model guidance is very divergent in the long range\nfor Isaac, with the regional hurricane and statistical models\nshowing intensification, while the global models show continued\nweakening.  The global models have done fairly well with this\ncyclone, so the forecast will lean more heavily on their weaker\nsolutions.\n\nThe latest initial motion estimate is 270/15, a little faster than\nbefore.  Isaac is forecast to move westward at roughly the same\nspeed for the next few days due to a mid-level ridge over the\ncentral Atlantic Ocean.  Model guidance is tightly clustered on this\ncycle, with the UKMET now coming into good agreement with the rest\nof the guidance.  The only change to this forecast is to accelerate\nIsaac roughly 1 kt over the course of the prediction, which over the\ncourse of a 5-day forecast results in a sizable westward shift.\nThis forecast could still be too slow, since the GFS and ECMWF are\na bit ahead of the new NHC track prediction.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it\napproaches the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and hurricane and\ntropical storm watches have been issued for several islands.\nInterests in those areas should follow any advice given by their\nlocal officials, and warnings will likely be issued this evening.\n\n2. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should continue to\nmonitor Isaac during the next couple of days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 14.6N  51.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 14.6N  53.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 14.8N  56.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 15.0N  59.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 15.3N  62.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 15.5N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  15/1800Z 15.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  16/1800Z 15.5N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nPaul does not have much time left as a tropical cyclone.  The\nlow-cloud center is displaced to the west of a diminishing area of\ndeep convection.  The intensity is held at 30 kt at this time, in\nagreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.  Since the\ncyclone will soon be moving over SSTs below 24 deg C, the system\nwill likely lose its remaining deep convection and degenerate into\na remnant low in 24 hours, or sooner.\n\nThe initial motion is west-northwest or 285/9 kt.  As the cyclone\nbecomes increasingly shallow, it should turn toward the west and\neventually west-southwest following the low-level tradewind flow.\nThe NHC track forecast is close to the HCCA corrected consensus\nprediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 22.3N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 22.6N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 22.8N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":51,"Date":"2018-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  51\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nFlorence's eye became a little ragged in appearance on satellite\nimages a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become better\ndefined.  There has also been a little cooling of the tops\nsurrounding the eye.  These features suggest that Florence is\nmaintaining its intensity.  The current intensity is kept at 120\nkt, which is a little above the adjusted flight-level winds from\nthe Air Force Hurricane Hunters and a little below the latest\nSATCON estimate from UW-CIMSS.  Over the next couple of days, the\nhurricane is expected to move over a warm ocean and through an\nenvironment of low vertical shear.  This would allow some\nadditional strengthening until about 48 hours.  From that time\nand up to landfall, the global models suggest some increase in shear\nwhich would cause some weakening.  However, Florence is still likely\nto remain a dangerous major hurricane when its center crosses the\ncoast.  The official intensity forecast is a blend of the\nDecay-SHIPS and ICON intensity model consensus.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt.  A\nmid-level ridge to the northeast should continue to steer Florence\non a west-northwestward to northwestward heading until the\nhurricane nears the coast.  The steering pattern from 72 hours and\nbeyond becomes more complicated and uncertain.  The latest GFS\nmodel run shows a mid-level ridge building over the east-central\nUnited States in 3-4 days.  This temporarily blocks the forward\nprogress of the hurricane and forces a southwesterly turn in the\nmodel run.  Later in the period, the ridge rebuilds to the north of\nFlorence allowing the system to move inland.  The official track\nforecast is somewhat to the left of the previous NHC track, but to\nthe right of the latest consensus predictions.  It should be noted\nthat, due to increased model spread, there is substantial\nuncertainty in the 3-5 track forecast.\n\nIt is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend\nwell away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as\na dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area\nregardless of exactly where the center moves.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All\ninterests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should\ncomplete preparations and follow any advice given by local\nofficials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant\nriver flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and\nMid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as\nFlorence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning\nhas been issued for a part of this area.  Damaging winds could also\nspread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 28.4N  68.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 29.6N  70.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 31.4N  73.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 32.9N  75.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 33.8N  76.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 34.3N  78.2W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  16/0000Z 34.3N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  17/0000Z 34.9N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Helene is gradually weakening,\nlikely due to cool SSTs of around 25.5 deg C beneath the cyclone.\nThe eye has become a little less distinct and cloud tops associated\nwith the inner-core convection have warmed. The initial intensity\nhas been lowered to 85 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and CI\nnumbers from TAFB. Continued weakening is likely for the next 36 to\n48 h since Helene will remain over marginal SSTs, and the intensity\nguidance is in good agreement. After that time, the cyclone will\nreach somewhat warmer waters and will begin to interact with an\nupper-level trough to the northwest. While this interaction will\ncause an increase of shear over Helene, it could also provide some\nbaroclinic support to help maintain Helene's intensity before it\nundergoes extratropical transition. Some of the dynamical models\nsuggest that reintensification is possible through this period,\nwhile the statistical models quickly weaken the cyclone. For now the\nofficial intensity forecast continues to show little change in\nintensity from 72-120 h and remains close to the various intensity\nconsensus aids, but confidence in this portion of the forecast is\nlower.\n\nVirtually no change has been made to the official track forecast.\nHelene is currently moving northwestward, and a steady turn\nnorthward, and eventually northeastward is expected as the cyclone\nis steered between a mid-level ridge to the east and a trough to\nwest. All of the global models are in good agreement, with the\nforward speed of the cyclone being the only notable difference from\nmodel to model. Since I have no reason to depart from the consensus\nat this point, the NHC forecast remains very close to HCCA through\nday 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 18.0N  35.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 19.3N  36.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 21.2N  37.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 23.6N  37.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 26.6N  37.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 33.7N  35.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  16/0000Z 40.5N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  17/0000Z 45.0N  23.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nA slew of recent microwave passes have revealed that Isaac's center\nis outrunning the deep convection by about a degree due to\nstrengthening westerly shear.  With the degradation in structure,\nDvorak estimates have fallen to T3.0/3.5 from both TAFB and SAB.\nThe initial intensity is being set at 55 kt to match the CI number\n(3.5), but I wouldn't be surprised if the actual intensity is\ncloser to the final-T number.\n\nIsaac is moving quickly westward, or 270/14 kt.  Ridging to the\nnorth should keep the cyclone on a similar speed and path for much\nof the forecast period.  The only main difference among the track\nmodels is Isaac's future speed, and the NHC official forecast\ncontinues to favor the faster models--the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA\nmodels.  Since the forecast thinking is unchanged, the updated NHC\nforecast is not too different from the previous one.  Isaac's\ncenter is expected to move across the Lesser Antilles near\nMartinique and Dominica on Thursday.\n\nVertical shear is expected to increase and turn more northwesterly\nduring the next 36 hours as Isaac moves closer to the base of an\nupper-level trough which extends northeast of the Leeward Islands.\nTherefore, deep convection is expected to remain decoupled from the\nlow-level center, and Isaac's structure could degrade further over\nthe next day or two.  The cyclone's maximum winds are also expected\nto decrease, and the NHC official forecast is close to the HCCA,\nFlorida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus aids.\nEven though the statistical-dynamical models and the HWRF\nrestrengthen Isaac by days 4 and 5 when the shear decreases, there\nmay not be much left of the cyclone for any strengthening to occur.\nBoth the GFS and ECMWF global models show Isaac weakening to a\nremnant low or opening up into a trough by days 4 or 5, which is\nthe scenario favored by the NHC official forecast.  As such,\ndissipation is now shown in the forecast at day 5.\n\n\nKey Message:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it\nmoves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm\nwarnings have been issued for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.\nTropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts\nand Nevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius.  Interests on those\nislands should follow any advice given by their local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 14.5N  52.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 14.6N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 14.7N  57.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 14.9N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 15.1N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 15.2N  69.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  16/0000Z 15.0N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Paul Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n800 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018\n\nActive deep convection associated with Paul appears to have ceased a\nlittle earlier today, shortly after 1900 UTC. At least one more\nadvisory will be issued just in case Paul makes an unexpected\ncomeback, but this seems unlikely due to the 24 deg C SSTs beneath\nthe cyclone. With no convection to sustain it, Paul will likely\ngradually spin down over the next few days until dissipating\nentirely by the weekend. Paul is now moving west with an initial\nmotion of 275/10 kt. Now that Paul's circulation has become very\nshallow, it should continue to be steered generally westward to\nwest-southwestward by the low-level tradewind flow until dissipation\noccurs in a few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 22.4N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 22.6N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  13/0000Z 22.7N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/1200Z 22.8N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/0000Z 22.7N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":52,"Date":"2018-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  52\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nThe eye of Florence remains very distinct in infrared satellite\nimagery this morning.  There has been little change to the cloud top\ntemperatures surrounding the eye overnight, however, the overall\ncloud shield and central dense overcast has become slightly more\nsymmetric.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was\nin the hurricane until just after midnight measured a peak 700-mb\nflight-level wind of 130 kt, and a SFMR wind of 107 kt in the\nnortheast eyewall.  A blend of these data and recent subjective and\nobjective satellite intensity estimates supports an initial wind\nspeed of 115 kt.  Florence will be moving over sea surface\ntemperatures of around 29C and through an area of low vertical wind\nshear during the next day or so.  These conditions favor some\nstrengthening, but eyewall replacement cycles could cause some\nfluctuations in intensity during that time. After that time, an\nincrease in southwesterly shear, upwelling, and interaction with\nland is likely to lead to some weakening, however, Florence is\nexpected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it approaches the\ncoastline.  The new NHC intensity forecast is near the higher\nstatistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of\nthe decay SHIPS model after that time.\n\nFlorence is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 15 kt.\nThere has been no change to the track forecast or reasoning for the\nfirst 36-48 hours, as Florence will continue to be steered\nwest-northwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion\nof a mid-level ridge centered northeast of Bermuda.  By late\nThursday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to begin building over the\neast-central United States, which is expected to cause Florence\nto slow down significantly by 48 hours.  The track guidance is in\ngood agreement through the first couple of days of the forecast\nperiod, and the NHC track forecast again brings the center of the\nhurricane very close to the coasts of North and South Carolina\nwithin 48 hours.  Later in the period, the dynamical model spread\nincreases but most of the guidance has continued its southward\nshift, and now take Florence southwestward near the coast of South\nCarolina by day 4.  The NHC track has been adjusted southward at\ndays 4 and 5, and is a little north of the consensus out of respect\nfor continuity, however, the GFS, ECMWF, and the ECMWF ensemble mean\nis south of the NHC track forecast, and additional southward\nadjustment may be warranted in future advisories.\n\nIt is important for users to realize that significant impacts extend\nwell away from the center of Florence, and serious hazards such as\na dangerous storm surge and flooding rains will cover a large area\nregardless of exactly where the center moves.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All\ninterests from South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic region should\ncomplete preparations and follow any advice given by local\nofficials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant\nriver flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas and\nMid-Atlantic states from late this week into early next week, as\nFlorence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning\nis in effect.  Strong winds could also spread inland into portions\nof the Carolinas.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 29.0N  70.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 30.3N  72.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 32.0N  74.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 33.2N  76.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 33.8N  77.3W  105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 72H  15/0600Z 33.8N  78.2W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 96H  16/0600Z 33.6N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  17/0600Z 34.2N  82.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nEarlier this morning, Helene looked quite ragged in IR imagery. The\neye became poorly defined and cloud tops were steadily warming.\nHowever, beginning around 0500 UTC, a new burst of convection began\nwrapping around the previously open western portion of Helene's\ninner core. Objective and subjective Dvorak current intensity\nestimates range from 77 to 91 kt, and the initial intensity is\ntherefore set at 80 kt as a blend of all of these data.\n\nDespite the fact that Helene appears to be on the upswing at the\nmoment, the cyclone is still passing over sub-26 deg C waters and\nall of the intensity guidance shows weakening for the next 24 h.\nBeyond that time, there is still some spread among the intensity\nmodels, though it has decreased since the last advisory. Helene will\nbegin interacting with a mid-latitude trough over the north-central\nAtlantic, which will result in an increase in shear over the\nhurricane. However, Helene will also begin to move over warmer\nwaters and could get some baroclinic support from the upper-level\ntrough. Overall the intensity guidance is a little lower than\nbefore, and now the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the\nintensity guidance envelope.\n\nOnce again, no meaningful change has been made to the NHC track\nforecast which continues to closely follow the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus. Helene is moving north-northwestward, and should\ngradually turn northward, and eventually northeastward, as the\ncyclone is steered between a mid-level ridge to the east and the\naforementioned mid-latitude trough to northwest. The global models\nremain in fairly good agreement on the track of Helene, especially\nthrough 72-96 h, when Helene is forecast to pass near the Azores,\nand interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress\nof Helene over the next several days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 19.2N  35.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 20.7N  36.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 22.9N  37.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 25.5N  37.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 28.9N  36.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 36.0N  34.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  16/0600Z 41.0N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  17/0600Z 45.5N  19.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nIsaac is a poorly organized tropical storm. Geostationary satellite\nand microwave images indicate that the center of the cyclone is\nlocated near the western edge of the main area of deep convection.\nThis asymmetric cloud pattern is due to about 20 kt of\nwest-northwesterly shear.  The satellite intensity estimates have\nbeen decreasing, and an average of the Dvorak CI-numbers supports\nlowering the initial wind speed slightly to 50 kt.  The NOAA\nHurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Isaac later this\nmorning, and that data should provide a better assessment of the\nstorm's intensity and structure.\n\nIsaac continues to move due westward at about 13 kt.  The track\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged.  A fairly strong mid-level\nridge to the north of Isaac should steer the system westward at\nabout the same forward speed during the next several days.  The\nmodels are now in fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast\nis just a little north of the previous one to come in line with the\nlatest guidance.  Based on this forecast, Isaac is expected to cross\nportions of the Leeward and Windward Islands in about 36 hours.\n\nIsaac is feeling the effects of wind shear, and the global models\nsuggest that the shear will likely remain moderate to strong during\nthe next couple of days.  These hostile winds combined with nearby\ndry air will likely cause Isaac to gradually weaken during the next\nseveral days.  The intensity models are in fair agreement, and this\nforecast is close to the model consensus, except a little lower than\nthat aid at 96 hours.  The latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models\nshow Isaac opening up into a trough by day 5, and the NHC forecast\nfollows those models.\n\nKey Message:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it\nmoves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm\nwarnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.\nTropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and\nNevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius.  Interests on those\nislands should follow any advice given by their local officials.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 14.5N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 14.8N  55.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.0N  58.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.2N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 15.4N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 15.3N  70.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  16/0600Z 15.2N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Paul","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP182018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Paul Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182018\n200 AM PDT Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nFor the first time since 14 August, the northeast Pacific has no\ntropical cyclones. Paul has lacked organized deep convection for\nover 12 hours and has therefore been declared a remnant low. The\ninitial intensity is still 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from around\n0500 UTC which showed a few wind vectors between 25 and 30 kt, but\nweakening should resume soon due to the lack of deep convection. The\nremnant low is moving west at around 8 kt, and a west to\nwest-southwest motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected\nfor the next few days until dissipation occurs later this week.\n\nThis is the last NHC advisory on Paul. For additional information on\nthe remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the\nNational Weather Service on the web at\nhttps://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 22.3N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  12/1800Z 22.4N 128.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  13/0600Z 22.4N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/1800Z 22.4N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/0600Z 22.3N 131.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/0600Z 21.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":53,"Date":"2018-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  53\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nAn Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft investigating\nFlorence this morning has found no change in the hurricane's peak\nintensity of 115 kt, even though the central pressure had decreased\na few millibars down to 943 mb. However, the aircraft data do\nindicate that Florence's inner-core wind field has expanded, with\nthe 50-kt wind radii now extending outward up to 100 n mi to the\nnortheast. Florence still has a very distinct eye in satellite\nimagery, but cloud top temperatures have been waxing and waning in\nthe eyewall region, with slight downward trend noted in the past\nhour or so. In contrast, the upper-level outflow remains impressive\nand continues to expand everywhere except to the south.\n\nFlorence is now moving toward the northwest or 305/13 kt. There has\nbeen no significant change to the NHC model guidance, including the\ncorrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are now virtually\non top of each other and the simple consensus model TVCA. As a\nresult, no changes were required to the previous NHC track. The\nshortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor\nimagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the\nnarrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the\nridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,\nlittle change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains\nvery close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours. On\nthe current forecast track, the center of Florence is expected to be\nnear the coasts of southern North Carolina and northern South\nCarolina in 48 to 72 hours and then drift westward to west-\nsouthwestward in weak steering flow.\n\nThere is still a narrow window of opportunity for Florence to\nstrengthen a little when the cyclone moves over the warmest SSTs and\nhighest upper-ocean heat content while the shear will be the lowest\nbetween 0600-1200 UTC tomorrow morning. After that, decreasing ocean\nheat content along with the slowing forward speed of Florence should\ncause at least some cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, which\nshould induce a gradual weakening trend. Once Florence reaches the\nshallow coastal shelf waters in 72 h, land interaction and more\nsignificant upwelling are expected, further enhancing the weakening\nprocess. The NHC intensity forecast remains near the higher\nstatistical guidance through 48 hours, then follows the trend of the\ndecay SHIPS model after that time.\n\nWhile Florence's maximum winds are expected to weaken a little, it\nis still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as it\napproaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and\nrainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large\narea regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All\ninterests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any\nadvice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and significant\nriver flooding is likely over portions of the Carolinas late this\nweek into early next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as\nit approaches the coast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning\nis in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions\nof the Carolinas.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East\nCoast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 29.8N  71.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 31.1N  73.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 32.6N  75.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 33.5N  76.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 33.8N  77.4W  105 KT 120 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 72H  15/1200Z 33.6N  78.4W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 96H  16/1200Z 33.6N  80.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  17/1200Z 34.7N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nThe eye has become less distinct, but the overall convective pattern\nremains well organized and symmetric. Based on the latest Dvorak\nestimates, the initial intensity is kept at 80 kt. Most of the\nguidance show a significant increase in the shear in 24 hours,\nbut the SSTs are not changing much for the next 2 days or so, thus\ngradual weakening is forecast.  After that time, both shear and SSTs\nwill become belligerently unfavorable, resulting in additional\nweakening. By the end of the forecast period, Helene should have\nacquired extratropical characteristic.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees\nat 12 kt, embedded in the southerly flow to the east of the digging\ntrough over the central Atlantic.  Since the trough is forecast to\namplify, Helene will be forced to turn to the north-northeast and\nnortheast with an increase in forward speed. The global models\nremain in fairly good agreement on the current forecast track of\nHelene, and they all bring the cyclone near the Azores in 3 or 4\ndays. Interests in those islands should closely monitor the progress\nof Helene over the next several days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 20.3N  36.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 22.0N  37.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 24.5N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 27.5N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 31.0N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 37.7N  33.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 42.5N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  17/1200Z 47.5N  17.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nGOES-16 1-minute satellite imagery along with NOAA Hurricane Hunter\ndata show that the center of Isaac has become fully exposed on the\nnorthwestern side of a shrinking area of deep convection.  There is\nstill a lot of wind there, however, with the NOAA plane observing\nSFMR and adjusted flight-level winds to support 50 kt as an initial\nintensity.\n\nAn upper-level trough is dropping southward over the central\nAtlantic, which has increased the shear this morning over Isaac.\nThis high shear is forecast to remain for the next day or two, and\nit is possible that Isaac will degrade into a tropical wave during\nthat time, although the area of tropical-storm-force winds will\nlikely not go away for a while.  In a couple of days, while the\nwind shear could decrease over the east-central Caribbean Sea, there\nmight not be much of a system left to take advantage of the more\nconducive conditions.  As a compromise, the official forecast\nshows a slow weakening, in the direction of the model consensus,\nand continues to show dissipation after 96 hours in line with the\nGFS/ECMWF guidance.  I wouldn't pay much attention to the long\nrange forecast for now, given the uncertainties in Isaac surviving\nduring the next day or two.\n\nThe low-level center of Isaac has recently accelerated, moving\nwestward at 15 kt, as it decoupled from the slower mid-level flow.\nAssuming the system stays vertically coherent, a large\nmid-tropospheric high is forecast to persist for the next several\ndays.  This should keep the system moving westward at a somewhat\nslower pace throughout the forecast period.  There isn't much spread\nin the guidance, and the official forecast is close to the previous\none after accounting for the initial position.  The long-range track\nforecast highly depends on the intensity forecast, so it should be\nconsidered low confidence.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it\nmoves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm\nwarnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.\nTropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and\nNevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius.  Interests on those\nislands should follow any advice given by their local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac.  The\nstorm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4\ninches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique,\nDominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with\nisolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the\nsouthern United States Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 15.0N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.1N  56.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 15.3N  59.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 15.3N  62.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 15.4N  65.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 15.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 15.5N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":54,"Date":"2018-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  54\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nData from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft along with\nsatellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that\nFlorence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the\nhurricane hasn't strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core\nand outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an\nincrease the cyclone's total energy, which will create a significant\nstorm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is\nstill expanding except toward the south.\n\nFlorence is moving toward the northwest or 315/14 kt. The new 12Z\nglobal and regional model runs have come into much better agreement\non Florence moving steadily northwestward around a strong ridge\nlocated between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region for the\nnext 48 hours or so. By late on day 2, Florence is forecast to\napproach the southern portion of the North Carolina coast, then slow\ndown considerably and turn westward within collapsing steering flow,\nwith a very slow westward motion near the coasts of North and South\nCarolina continuing into Friday and Saturday. Corrected-consensus\nmodels HCCA and FSSE remain very close to each other and are quite\nsimilar to the simple consensus model TVCA. Therefore, only a slight\neastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36\nhours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based\non the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant\nchanges were required to the previous advisory track, which still\nshows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and\nwestern North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion\nup the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.\n\nA narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or\nso for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes\nover the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat\ncontent associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear\nconditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.\nHowever, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to\nFlorence's large and expanding inner-core wind field. By 36 h\nand beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing\nforward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath\nthe hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence\nmoves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land\ninteraction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which\nshould further enhance the weakening process. The NHC intensity\nforecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48\nhours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that\ntime.\n\nAlthough the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more,\nFlorence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as\nit approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and\nrainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large\narea regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All\ninterests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any\nadvice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early\nnext week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the\ncoast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning\nis in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions\nof the Carolinas.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East\nCoast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this\nweek, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 30.9N  72.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 32.1N  74.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 33.4N  75.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 33.9N  77.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 34.0N  77.9W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 72H  15/1800Z 33.6N  79.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 96H  16/1800Z 34.0N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  17/1800Z 35.6N  83.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nThe eye has continued to become less distinct in conventional\nimagery, but the overall convective pattern remains well organized\nand symmetric. Based on the latest Dvorak estimates, the initial\nintensity is lowered to 75 kt. Most of the guidance show a\nsignificant increase in the shear in 24 hours, but the SSTs are not\nchanging much for the next 2 days or so, thus gradual weakening is\nforecast.  After that time, both shear and SSTs will become\nhighly unfavorable, resulting in additional weakening. By the end of\nthe forecast period, Helene should have acquired extratropical\ncharacteristics.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the north or 350 degrees at 12 kt,\nembedded in the southerly flow to the east of the digging trough\nover the central Atlantic.  Since the trough is forecast to amplify,\nHelene will be forced to turn to the north-northeast and northeast\nwith an increase in forward speed. The global models remain in\nfairly good agreement on the current forecast track of Helene, and\nthey all bring the cyclone near the Azores in about 3 days.\nInterests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of\nHelene over the next several days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 21.4N  36.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 23.1N  37.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 26.0N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 29.0N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 32.5N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 39.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 43.0N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  17/1800Z 47.5N  14.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Isaac hasn't changed much in the past\nseveral hours, with the center exposed on the west side of a\nre-developing band of convection.  On the last pass of the NOAA\nHurricane Hunter aircraft, peak flight-level winds were 61 kt and\nSFMR values were about 50 kt.  These data support an initial wind\nspeed estimate of 50 kt.  It is interesting to note that the\nsurface center is estimated to be a tenth of a degree or two south\nof the well-defined swirl on satellite--a function of the fast\nforward speed and high shear.\n\nThe shear is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and\ngradual weakening is anticipated, in line with the model\nguidance.  Given the strong shear, it is possible that Isaac could\ndegenerate into a wave near the Lesser Antilles.  After that time,\nIsaac could escape the upper-level trough over the central Atlantic\nthat has been shearing the cyclone, and find a more conducive\nenvironment. More of the model guidance is suggesting some\nreintensification of the cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea, with\nthe biggest hold-out being the ECMWF.  Continuity dictates that the\nforecast not change as much as the guidance, most of which is\nshowing a hurricane at long range, so the compromise solution is no\nlonger dissipating the cyclone and flat-lining the intensity at\nlong range.  It almost goes without saying that this is a\nlow-confidence intensity forecast.\n\nIsaac has accelerated to near 17 kt over the past 12 hours, and the\nshorter-term motion is closer to 20 kt with the convection-less\ncenter. A mid-tropospheric high is forecast to persist for the next\nseveral days, which should keep the cyclone moving westward, albeit\nat a slightly slower pace.  The model guidance has shifted a bit to\nthe north on this cycle, but is mostly in response to the initial\nlatitude.  The NHC track forecast is moved northward as well but\nstill lies on the south side of the consensus.  At long range, it\nmakes sense when forecasting a weaker system to stay on the left\nand faster side of the consensus, so that's where the new NHC\nprediction lies.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to remain at tropical storm intensity when it\nmoves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and tropical storm\nwarnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe.\nTropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts and\nNevis, Antigua, and Saba and St. Eustatius.  Interests on those\nislands should follow any advice given by their local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac.  The\nstorm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4\ninches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique,\nDominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with\nisolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the\nsouthern United States Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 15.4N  56.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 15.6N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 15.8N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 16.0N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 16.0N  67.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 16.0N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 16.5N  76.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  17/1800Z 17.5N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nThe strong low pressure system which the NHC has been monitoring in\nthe north Atlantic for a couple of days has developed a cyclonically\ncurved band of deep convection near the center, and scatterometer\ndata indicate that the winds are near 40 kt.  Since the system is\nstill vertically stacked with an upper-low, it is then classified\nas a subtropical cyclone at this time.  However, the cyclone is\ngaining organization while it is acquiring tropical characteristics.\nThe NHC forecast calls for Joyce to transform into a tropical system\nin about 12 to 24 hours.  Since the ocean is warm, some slight\nstrengthening is possible during the next 3 days.  After that time,\nJoyce will be over cooler waters and should then be absorbed by a\nlarger extratropical low.\n\nJoyce has been moving southwestward or 225 degrees at 5 kt, steered\nby the northerly flow around the subtropical high which has been\nsteering Florence and to west of the mid-latitude trough which\nis forcing Helene to recurve. In a couple of days, global models\nindicate that the steering pattern will change as the trough\namplifies, and Joyce should then turn toward the northeast with an\nincrease in forward speed.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 34.3N  41.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 33.7N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  13/1800Z 33.0N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 32.5N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 32.5N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 34.0N  41.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 37.0N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":55,"Date":"2018-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  55\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nSatellite data and reports from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate\nsignificant changes in the structure of Florence and the\nenvironment near the storm since the last advisory.  Microwave\nsatellite imagery shows that the convection on the southern side of\nthe storm has been disrupted, and reports from an Air Force Reserve\nHurricane Hunter aircraft indicate the eyewall now wraps less than\n50 percent of the way around the center.  The aircraft also reports\nthat the hurricane again has concentric wind maxima, the inner at a\nradius 20-30 n mi and the outer at 50-60 n mi.  The convection seems\nto have been affected by 20-25 kt of southerly vertical wind shear,\nmost of which appears to be due to strong winds between 200-250 mb\nseen in dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet.  The central\npressure has risen to 957 mb, and the maximum 700-mb flight-level\nwinds reported so far are 103 kt.  Based on the latter data, the\ninitial intensity reduced to a probably generous 95 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 315/15.  During the next 12-36 hours, the\nhurricane is expected to turn toward the west-northwest and west\nwith a decrease in forward speed as it moves into an area of\nweakening steering currents near and over the southeastern United\nStates.  The new forecast track now brings the center onshore in\nsouthern North Carolina near the 36 h point.  After landfall, the\ncyclone should move slowly westward to west-southwestward through\nthe 72 h point, then it should turn northwestward to northward by\nthe end of the forecast period as it moves through the Appalachian\nMountains.  The new forecast track lies between the HCCA corrected\nconsensus model and the other consensus aids, and it is nudged just\na little to the north of the previous track.\n\nThe dynamical models forecast the current shear to subside after\n6-12 h as Florence moves farther from an upper-level low currently\nnear northeastern Florida.  This, combined with sea surface\ntemperatures near 29C, would allow a last chance for strengthening\nbefore landfall.  However, the storm structure, particularly the\nlarge outer wind maxima, would likely be slow to respond to the\nmore favorable environment.  The pre-landfall part of the intensity\nforecast thus calls for little change in strength, but given the\nuncertainties the confidence in this is low.  After landfall,\nFlorence should gradually weaken during the 36-48 h period while\nthe center is near the coast, then weaken more quickly when the\ncenter moves farther inland.\n\nWhile Florence has weakened below major hurricane intensity, the\nwind field of the hurricane continues to grow in size.  This\nevolution will produce storm surges similar to that of a more\nintense, but smaller, hurricane, and thus the storm surge values\nseen in the previous advisory are still valid.  The threat of\nrainfall has also not diminished, and these impacts will cover a\nlarge area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All\ninterests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any\nadvice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early\nnext week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the\ncoast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning\nis in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions\nof the Carolinas.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East\nCoast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this\nweek, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 32.0N  73.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 33.1N  75.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 33.9N  76.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 34.2N  78.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  15/0000Z 34.1N  78.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  16/0000Z 33.5N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  17/0000Z 34.0N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  18/0000Z 37.5N  83.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nHelene's surface circulation has become rather difficult to find\nthis evening in shortwave and enhanced infrared satellite imagery.\nBased on an earlier SSMI/S microwave pass, the center was removed\nwell to the south of the convective mass.  A blend of the Dvorak\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as a SATCON analysis\nof 72 kt, yields an initial intensity of 70 kt for this advisory.\n\nGlobal models and the ECMWF/GFS Decay SHIPS models show the\nsouthwesterly shear increasing significantly in 24 hours, however,\nthe warm sea surface temperatures are expected to limit the\nweakening trend some. Beyond the 48 hour period, Helene is expected\nto traverse cooler waters while the harsh upper wind environment\npersists.  Therefore, additional weakening is forecast at a\nfaster rate.  Toward the end of the period, the global models, as\nwell as the Florida State Cyclone Phase Evolution analysis and\nforecast product, show Helene transitioning to a post-tropical\nextratropical cyclone as it moves toward Ireland and the United\nKingdom.\n\nHelene is estimated to be moving northward, or 350/11 kt, within the\nmid-tropospheric southerly flow produced by an amplifying deep-layer\ntrough over the central Atlantic.  At the 48 hour period, the\ncyclone should turn to the north-northeast followed by a\nnortheastward turn with an increase in forward motion toward the\nend of the forecast period.  The large-scale models, and the\nHWRF hurricane model, are clustered fairly close together and\nindicate that Helene will pass near the Azores in about 72 hours.\nInterests in those islands should closely monitor the progress of\nHelene over the next several days.  The NHC forecast lies in the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope and is nudged toward the TVCN\nmulti-model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 22.4N  36.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 24.4N  37.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 27.3N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 30.7N  36.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 34.3N  35.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 40.1N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 43.4N  22.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  18/0000Z 48.7N  12.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nA NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter plane has been investigating Isaac this\nevening, and the data show that the cyclone has weakened a bit.\nThe maximum 850-mb flight-level wind measured by the plane was 47\nkt, and the highest SFMR winds not coincident with a rain spike were\naround 45 kt.  Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is\nlowered to 45 kt, and the minimum pressure is up to 1006 mb based on\ndropsonde data.  Additionally, a superposition of the flight-level\nwind and dropsonde surface wind data suggest that Isaac may not have\na closed circulation at 850 mb but is still hanging on to one at the\nsurface.\n\nAll of Isaac's deep convection is displaced 60-120 n mi to the\nnortheast and southeast of the low-level center due to around 30 kt\nof westerly shear.  This magnitude of the shear is not expected to\ndecrease during the next 12-24 hours, so at the very least, gradual\nweakening is anticipated.  With the circulation so fragile and\nlimited to below 850 mb, however, it's entirely possible that Isaac\ncould open up into a wave at any time.  Even if degeneration into a\nwave occurs, the system would likely carry tropical-storm-force\nwinds across the Leeward Islands on Thursday.  After Isaac moves\ninto the eastern Caribbean Sea, there is a lot of uncertainty\nregarding its future.  The 18Z GFS has come back in line with the\nECMWF, showing Isaac opening up into a trough over the central and\nwestern Caribbean Sea, but the environmental conditions (lower\nshear, warm sea surface temperatures, etc.) would suggest that the\nsystem would have an opportunity to restrengthen.  For now, the new\nNHC intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous\nadvisory, showing gradual weakening through 48 hours and then\nholding the system at 35 kt through day 5.  This remains a low\nconfidence forecast until we know if Isaac survives the next couple\nof days.\n\nIsaac continues to move quickly westward with an initial motion of\n270/17 kt.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered on a\nnearly due westward motion for much of the forecast period, with\nsome of the same speed differences noted in previous forecasts.\nEspecially since Isaac's speed has been faster than forecast, the\nNHC track forecast continues to favor the faster guidance, in\nparticular the ECMWF, GFS, and HCCA models.\n\nReconnaissance and scatterometer data suggest that there are no\ntropical-storm-force winds within the southern semicircle, but the\nradii we've been carrying within the northern semicircle appear\nreasonable.  The wind radii forecast have been adjusted to account\nfor the new initial radii.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to still be producing tropical-storm-force\nwinds when it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Thursday, and\ntropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and\nGuadeloupe.  Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat,\nSt. Kitts and Nevis, Antigua, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,\nand St. Martin.  Interests on those islands should follow any advice\ngiven by their local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible with Isaac.  The\nstorm is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4\ninches with isolated amounts up 8 inches across Martinique,\nDominica and Guadeloupe. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with\nisolated amounts to 4 inches are expected across Puerto Rico and the\nsouthern United States Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 15.3N  58.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 15.5N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 15.6N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 15.7N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 15.7N  69.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 15.6N  73.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 16.5N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  18/0000Z 17.5N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 12 2018\n\nJoyce still has subtropical characteristics. Although a small area\nof convection has recent developed near the storm's center, cloud\ntops are not particularly cold and the cyclone is still co-located\nwith an upper-level low. The initial intensity has been held at 40\nkt based on a subtropical intensity estimate of 35-40 kt from\nTAFB.  This could be generous estimate since a recent near-miss of\nthe ASCAT instrument to the west of Joyce suggested that the winds\nmay have decreased somewhat since earlier today.\n\nLittle change has been made to the track or intensity forecast.\nJust about all of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that\nsome gradual strengthening is possible during the next day or two\nwhile Joyce continues to acquire tropical characteristics. By 72 h,\nthe global and statistical models depict Joyce weakening due to a\ndrastic increase in shear and a decrease in environmental humidity\nuntil it is absorbed into a larger mid-latitude trough around 96 h.\nThe HWRF and HMON models show a very different solution where Joyce\nstrengthens to hurricane strength despite the marginal environment.\nThis scenario seems less likely at this time, so the NHC intensity\nforecast is just below the intensity consensus beyond 36 h.\n\nJoyce is caught in fairly light steering currents between strong\nridges to its east and west, and the initial motion estimate is\n220/5 kt. All of the global models forecast only a slow\nsouthwestward motion during the next couple of days, particularly\nas Hurricane Helene approaches from the southeast. Once Helene\npasses to the east, Joyce will likely quickly turn northeastward and\naccelerate ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude trough before\ndissipating southwest of the Azores. The official track forecast is\nbasically a blend of the previous advisory and the corrected\nconsensus aids HCCA and FSSE.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 34.1N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 33.5N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 32.9N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 36H  14/1200Z 32.5N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 32.3N  43.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 34.2N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 37.0N  33.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":56,"Date":"2018-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  56\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Florence has changed little overnight\nwith the eye waxing and waning in infrared imagery.  The eye has\nmoved into NWS radar range and can be seen in radar data from\nMorehead City and Wilmington NWS 88-D imagery.  An 0616 UTC\nAMSR2 microwave overpass indicated that the convection over the\nsouthern and southeastern portions of the storm is still disrupted,\nand that the eyewall was open to the southeast.  An Air Force\nHurricane Hunter aircraft also reported that the eyewall was not\nfully intact on its last pass through the storm just after that\ntime.  The Air Force plane measured a peak 700-mb flight level wind\nof 102 kt and peak SFMR winds of 85 kt during the mission.  These\ndata suggest that the intensity may be slightly lower, but the\ninitial intensity has been maintained at 95 kt, since the plane\nmay not have sampled the strongest winds. Another Air Force\nplane will be in Florence shortly, and should provide a better\nassessment of the intensity of the hurricane.  As mentioned in\nthe previous discussion, it appears that some southern shear has\ncaused the degradation of the inner core.  The global models suggest\nthat this shear will relax today while Florence moves over warm\nwaters, however, given the current storm structure, little overall\nchange in strength is anticipated as Florence approaches the coast.\nGradual weakening should occur as the hurricane interacts with land\nin 24-36 h, with a faster rate of weakening predicted once Florence\nmoves farther inland.\n\nFlorence is moving northwestward or 315 degrees at 13 kt. A\ndeveloping mid-level ridge over the north-central United States\nshould cause the forward speed of the hurricane to decrease today.\nAs the steering currents collapse tonight and Friday, Florence is\nforecast to drift westward or west-southwestward and continue that\nslow motion into the weekend.  The global models predict that the\nridge will slide eastward over the weekend, which should allow\nFlorence to turn northwestward and northward by the end of the\nforecast period.  Although there is still some spread in the\nguidance by 48 hours, with the GFS along the northern side of the\nguidance envelope, and the ECWMF along the southern edge, the\nvarious consensus aids have moved little.  As a result, the new NHC\nforecast track is very similar to the previous advisory.\n\nAircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence is a large\nhurricane.  Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and\ndamaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where\nthe center of Florence moves.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area.  All\ninterests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any\nadvice given by local officials.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early\nnext week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the\ncoast and moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning\nis in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions\nof the Carolinas.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East\nCoast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this\nweek, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 32.8N  74.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 33.7N  76.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 34.2N  77.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 34.3N  78.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  15/0600Z 34.1N  79.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  16/0600Z 33.9N  81.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  17/0600Z 35.4N  83.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  18/0600Z 39.5N  81.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Helene Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nHelene's surface circulation has become fully exposed this morning\nwith the center decoupled about 110 miles south of edge of the\nremaining deep convection.  Subjective and objective satellite\nintensity estimates have decreased and support lowering the initial\nintensity to 65 kt.\n\nStatistical and global model guidance show the southwesterly shear\nincreasing significantly in 12 hours or so, however, the 26 to\n27C sea surface temperatures should govern the weakening trend a\nlittle.  In 3 days, Helene is forecast to move over much cooler\nwaters while the cyclone becomes embedded in the hostile\nmid-latitude upper-level westerlies.  Subsequently, further\nweakening is expected at a faster pace.  By day 4, the large-scale\nmodels all show Helene acquiring extratropical cyclone\ncharacteristics as it moves toward Ireland and the United\nKingdom.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory, and is based primarily on the NOAA-HCCA and the IVCN\nconsensus models.\n\nHelene is still moving northward, or 355/12 kt, within the\ndeep-layer southerly flow produced by an amplifying mid-Atlantic\ntrough to the west of the cyclone.  In 48 hours, Helene is forecast\nto turn north-northeastward followed by a turn toward the northeast\nwith an increase in forward motion at the 72 hour period.  The\nguidance suite remains tightly clustered through day 4, with some\nslight spread at day 5, and indicates that Helene will pass near the\nAzores in about 3 days.  Interests in those islands should closely\nmonitor the progress of Helene over the next few days.  The official\nforecast is basically an update of the previous one, and lies close\nto the TVCN multi-model consensus through the entire forecast\nperiod.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 23.5N  37.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 25.7N  37.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 29.1N  36.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 32.5N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 35.8N  34.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 40.7N  28.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 44.6N  19.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/0600Z 51.1N  10.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nData from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft that departed the\nstorm shortly before 0600 UTC indicated that the tropical storm has\nweakened a little more.  Maximum flight-level winds were around 51\nkt, while maximum SFMR winds were only 41 kt.  Both of these\nsupport an initial intensity of 40 kt.  Wind measurements from the\nplane also suggested that Isaac is close to opening up into a\ntropical wave and its circulation is likely barely closed at the\nsurface.  Another P-3 mission is scheduled for this morning.\n\nIsaac is nearly completely devoid of deep convection at the moment,\nand is not trackable in radar data from Guadeloupe and Martinique.\nGiven the lack of deep convection to sustain the cyclone, continued\ngradual weakening is expected.  However, given the extent of\n40 mph winds observed by the NOAA plane, Isaac is still likely to\nbring gusty conditions to many of the Leeward Islands through\nthis afternoon.  The dynamical guidance is now in fairly good\nagreement on the intensity of Isaac for the next few days, and\nnearly all of the models depict Isaac opening into a trough between\n48 and 96 h.  The NHC forecast conservatively maintains Isaac\nthrough day 4 in an attempt to maintain some continuity, but it\nis very possible that Isaac will open into a trough sooner than\nindicated.  Some of the dynamical models suggest that regeneration\ncould occur in the western Caribbean, however the predictability of\nsuch an event is too low to explicitly show in the forecast at this\npoint.\n\nIsaac is still moving quickly westward, with an initial motion of\n275/15 kt.  Confidence in the track forecast remains high, and the\ntrack guidance is tightly clustered through the forecast period.\nVery little change was made to the track forecast, which continues\nto closely follow the HCCA model.  As long as Isaac remains a\nshallow cyclone, it should continue to be steered westward by the\nlow-level tradewind flow, even if, or when, it opens up into a\ntrough.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across\nportions of the Lesser Antilles this morning and afternoon, and\ntropical storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and\nGuadeloupe.\n\n2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts\nand Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,\nand St. Martin.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on these\nislands today and interests on those islands should follow any\nadvice given by their local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 15.4N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 15.5N  61.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 15.5N  64.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 15.5N  67.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 15.4N  70.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 15.6N  74.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 16.9N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nJoyce is still co-located with an upper-level low, and the most\nrecent TAFB intensity classification was still a subtropical type.\nFurthermore, there has been no discernible increase of convection\nnear the center of the cyclone, and cloud tops have actually warmed\nover the past few hours.  Therefore, Joyce is still classified as\nsubtropical for this advisory.  Since the cyclone hasn't changed\nmuch in organization, the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt\nbased on the TAFB subtropical intensity estimate, but this is still\npossibly generous.\n\nJoyce's struggle to maintain deep convection bodes poorly for its\nintensification prospects, considering that the shear is forecast\nby the global models to increase considerably over the next few\ndays.  SHIPS, LGEM, and the global models continue to show Joyce\nchanging little in strength over the next few days until the\nsystem dissipates by early next week.  The HWRF and HMON models are\nstill outliers in showing substantial intensification, but even\nthese models aren't quite as aggressive in strengthening Joyce as\nthey were previously.  The NHC forecast continues to favor the\nstatistical guidance and is just below the intensity consensus at\nmost forecast hours because it is frankly hard to believe that Joyce\nwill become a hurricane in 48 h based on its current appearance.\n\nJoyce is still moving slowly southwestward with an initial motion\nof 220/5 kt.  The global models remain in fairly good agreement\nthat Joyce will move slowly southwestward for the next day or\nso as the storm remains in light steering flow.  A turn toward the\nsouth will likely occur as Helene approaches from the southeast,\nfollowed by a quick turn northeastward once the larger tropical\ncyclone passes by.  Joyce should then accelerate quickly\nnortheastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough before dissipating\nsouthwest of the Azores.  Little change was made to the official\ntrack forecast which is near the middle of the various consensus\naids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 33.8N  43.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 33.3N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 32.6N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 32.0N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 32.1N  43.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 34.6N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 37.0N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":57,"Date":"2018-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  57\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nThe satellite and radar presentations of Florence have improved\nsomewhat this morning, with a 20-25 nmi wide eye closing off in the\nradar data from the Morehead City and Wilmington WSR-88D Doppler\nweather radars. However, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance\naircraft investigating the hurricane this morning has not yet found\nany flight-level or SFMR winds to support more than about 80 kt at\nthe surface thus far, even though the pressure has decreased to 955\nmb. The initial intensity has only been lowered to 90 kt, given\nthat there are peak Doppler velocity values up to 110 kt with\naverage values of 95-97 kt at 15,000 ft in the northern eyewall\nregion, an area of the hurricane that the reconnaissance aircraft\nhas not yet sampled. The upper-level outflow pattern remains quite\nimpressive.\n\nFlorence has been gradually slowing down this morning, and the\ninitial motion estimate is now 315/09 kt. The subtropical ridge to\nthe northeast and east of Florence is now well-established between\nBermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region and extends westward into\nVirginia and the central Appalachians. This large-scale feature is\nexpected to keep the hurricane moving northwestward today, followed\nby a turn toward the west at a much slower speed on Friday as the\nridge to the north of Florence weakens due to a weak shortwave\ntrough dropping slowly southward from the Ohio Valley. On days 3-5,\nFlorence is forecast turn toward the northwest and north around the\nwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, and move across western\nSouth Carolina on Sunday, across western North Carolina and eastern\nTennessee on Monday, and then move up the spine of the Appalachians\nas an extratropical low after the cyclone merges or interacts with a\nfrontal system. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the\nprevious one, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models\nTVCA, HCCA, and FSSE.\n\nFlorence is currently approaching the Gulfstream current, and the\nhurricane is forecast to move over warmer and deeper waters in 6-12\nhours, which could allow for some slight strengthening. Just prior\nto landfall in about 24 hours, Florence is expected to weaken some\ndue to upwelling of the shallow coastal waters. After landfall\noccurs, rapid weaning of the stronger inner-core wind field is\nexpected to due land interaction and Florence's slow forward speed\nof 5 kt or less. However, intense rainbands are expected to develop\nover the Atlantic waters and keep moving along the coast and inland,\nlikely producing strong wind gusts through Saturday night.\n\nAircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence remains a large\nhurricane.  Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and\ndamaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where\nthe center of Florence moves.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along\nportions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and\na Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. The\ngreatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and\nCape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western\nPamlico Sound.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,\nas Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina as soon as this evening,\nand a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread\ninland into portions of the Carolinas.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East\nCoast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this\nweek, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 33.4N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 33.9N  76.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 34.2N  77.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 36H  15/0000Z 34.1N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  15/1200Z 34.0N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  16/1200Z 34.3N  81.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  17/1200Z 36.9N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  18/1200Z 40.3N  79.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nHelene continues with very limited deep convection, only observed\nthis morning in the northwestern quadrant.  Dvorak estimates from\nTAFB and SAB are dropping, and a blend of these with the CIMSS\nSATCON indicates an intensity of 60 kt.  Thus Helene has weakened to\na tropical storm.\n\nStrong tropospheric vertical shear along with only lukewarm waters\nare likely contributing toward Helene's weakening.  The shear\nshould further increase during the next two days, though the sea\nsurface temperatures will rebound up to 27C along with an increase\nin low-level moisture.  A slow weakening is thus expected.\nBeginning in about three days, Helene will commence baroclinic\ntransition, and it is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by\n96 hours.  This forcing should preclude any additional weakening\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period.  The official\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory.  The\nprediction is based on a blend of the stronger HWRF dynamical model\nand the weaker SHIPS/LGEM statistical schemes for the next couple\nof days, and is based on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET global\nmodels at the extended lead times.\n\nHelene is moving northward at about 12 kt between the subtropical\nridge to its east and a deep-layer trough to its west.  The system\nshould accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the next few\ndays as it rounds the subtropical ridge and starts getting picked\nup by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is\nbased upon the variable consensus technique (TVCN) and is just\nnorth of the previous forecast through three days.  The\nguidance suite remains tightly clustered and indicates that Helene\nwill pass near the Azores in 2 or 3 days.  Interests in\nthose islands should closely monitor the progress of Helene.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 24.8N  37.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 27.2N  37.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 30.8N  36.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 34.2N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 37.2N  33.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 40.5N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z 44.0N  18.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/1200Z 51.5N   9.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicate that Isaac remains a poorly organized\ntropical cyclone, with the low-level center mostly exposed during\nthe past several hours.  The center of Isaac passed between Dominica\nand Martinique around 1300 UTC, with westerly winds reported on both\nSt. Lucia and Martinique, indicating that Isaac is still a tropical\nstorm. Data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that\nmaximum winds remain near 40 kt, although the area of tropical-\nstorm-force winds has shrunk since yesterday.\n\n1200 UTC radiosonde data from the eastern Caribbean and Hurricane\nHunter aircraft data indicate that the circulation of Isaac is\nfairly shallow and small.  It is entirely possible that Isaac will\ndegenerate into a tropical wave during the next day or two due to\nthe continued effects of strong shear.  However, the environment\nbecomes much more conducive for increased organization in a few days\nwhen the cyclone, or its remnants, moves across the west-central\nCaribbean Sea.  Model guidance is not consistent at all on whether\nIsaac will survive as a tropical cyclone, which frankly might not be\na very predictable event given the initial uncertainties.  The best\ncourse of action is to let the full 1200 UTC guidance suite ingest\nall of the latest radiosonde and other data before making any\nchanges, so this advisory holds the status quo for now.\n\nIsaac is moving a little south-of-west and a bit faster, since it\nwas devoid of convection most of night, at about 265/17. A mid-level\nridge is forecast to persist over the southwestern Atlantic,\nsteering Isaac westward for the next few days.  The track forecast\nis fairly dependent on the intensity forecast, since a deeper\ntropical cyclone will move slower due to slightly weaker winds in\nthe middle part of the atmosphere.  The forecast has been too slow\nso far, and with the current forecast showing little strengthening,\nthe official track prediction is shifted west of the previous one,\nclose to the NOAA corrected consensus aid.  At the end of the\nforecast, if Isaac remains a tropical cyclone, it could start moving\nmore toward the west-northwest, but I would place little emphasis on\nthe 96-hour point until we get a better handle on the future\nstructure of Isaac.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across\nportions of the Lesser Antilles into this afternoon, and tropical\nstorm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and\nGuadeloupe.\n\n2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts\nand Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,\nand St. Martin.  Tropical storm conditions are possible on these\nislands today and interests on those islands should follow any\nadvice given by their local officials.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 14.9N  61.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 14.9N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 14.9N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 14.9N  69.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 15.0N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 15.5N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z 17.0N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nJoyce's satellite presentation is less than impressive this morning,\nwith the low-level center exposed to the northwest of a small patch\nof deep convection. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on\nthe latest subtropical classification of ST2.5 from TAFB a 1208Z\nASCAT-B overpass that showed 30-35 kt winds north and northeast of\nthe center. Cyclone phase space diagrams still show Joyce with a\nshallow-to-moderate warm core, and the system remains a subtropical\nstorm for now.\n\nLittle change in intensity is expected during the next few days, as\nJoyce will continue to be affected by strong westerly-to-\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear. The new NHC forecast is a little\nbelow the intensity consensus given the weakening trend seen in the\nglobal models. Dissipation is shown at 96 hours, but it wouldn't be\nsurprising if Joyce becomes a post-tropical cyclone before that.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 245/05. Joyce is currently situated\na little to the west of an upper-level low, which is currently\nsteering the system southwestward and southward, and that should\ncontinue for the next day or so. Then, Joyce should begin to\naccelerate northeastward ahead of an approaching mid-level trough.\nThe new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the latest\nguidance, and is a little to the west of the previous one through\n36 hours. The official forecast is close to the latest HCCA and\nTVCA consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 33.7N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 33.1N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 32.2N  44.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 31.9N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 32.5N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 35.5N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":58,"Date":"2018-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  58\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nThe satellite and radar presentations of Florence have changed\nlittle this afternoon with a 20-25 nmi wide eye waxing and waning\nas intrusions of dry air have occasionally eroded the southern and\neastern eyewall. Despite the occasional ragged appearance of\nFlorence's eye, reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that the\ncentral pressure has remained steady at 955 mb. The last reports\nfrom the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters support an intensity\nof 85 kt, and this is corroborated by average Doppler velocity\nvalues of near 105 kt at 2500-3000 ft ASL. A report of a 10-minute\naverage wind of 59 kt and a gust to 74 kt was recently received from\nthe Cape Lookout C-MAN station (CLKN7). The 59-kt 10-minute wind\nspeed is roughly equivalent to a 65-kt 1-minute wind.\n\nFlorence has continued to slow down, and radar fixes over the past\ncouple hours suggest that Florence has possibly stalled due to a\nre-organization of the eye/eyewall. Smoothing through the fixes\nover the past 6 h yields an initial motion estimate of 295/04 kt.\nThere is no change to the previous forecast reasoning. The ridge to\nthe north and east of Florence remains intact over the Atlantic\nOcean, but water vapor imagery and special upper-air observations\nindicate that a shortwave trough has weakened that portion of the\nridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast, resulting in a weakening\nof the steering currents. The ridge is forecast by all of the\nlatest model guidance to remain intact, albeit weak, for the next 72\nhours, which will nudge Florence on a slow westward to west-\nsouthwest track into central South Carolina. On days 4 and 5,\nFlorence is expected to become an extratropical low as it interacts\nwith a front while moving northward and northeastward along the\nAppalachian Mountains. The official forecast track is similar to,\nbut slightly south of the previous advisory track through 72 hours,\nwith little change indicated on days 4 and 5. This scenario closely\nfollows the simple consensus model TVCN/TVCA, which is north of the\ncorrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE, which are heavily weighing\nthe southernmost model, ECMWF, which keeps Florence over or near the\nAtlantic through about 48 hours.\n\nRadar data indicate that Florence may be developing an outer\neyewall. If this trend continues, then little change to the\nintensity is likely until landfall occurs in about 24 hours due in\npart to the low vertical wind shear conditions and the warm, deep\nwaters of the Gulfstream current. Florence is expected to weaken\nafter landfall, but the rate of weakening may be tempered somewhat\ndue to much of the hurricane's circulation remaining over the warm\nwaters of the Atlantic Ocean and Gulfstream. Once Florence moves\nfarther inland over central South Carolina, rapid weakening of\nthe inner-core wind field should occur due to land interaction and\nthe cyclone's slow forward speed of 5 kt or less. However, intense\nrainbands are expected to continue developing over the Atlantic\nwaters and keep moving along the coast and inland, likely producing\nstrong wind gusts through Saturday night.\n\nAircraft and satellite wind data show that Florence remains a large\nhurricane.  Life-threatening storm surge, heavy rainfall, and\ndamaging wind will cover a large area regardless of exactly where\nthe center of Florence moves.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is highly likely along portions of\nthe coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Storm\nSurge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. The greatest\nstorm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape\nHatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico\nSound.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,\nas Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the\ncoasts of South Carolina and North Carolina beginning this evening,\nand a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Strong winds could also spread\ninland into portions of the Carolinas.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 33.7N  76.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 34.1N  77.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 34.2N  78.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  15/0600Z 33.9N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  15/1800Z 33.8N  79.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  16/1800Z 34.8N  82.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  17/1800Z 37.9N  82.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  18/1800Z 42.7N  76.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nHelene has maintained deep convection this afternoon though only\nin the northern semicircle.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are\ncontinuing to drop, and a blend of these with the CIMSS SATCON\nsupports lowering the intensity to 55 kt.\n\nStrong tropospheric vertical shear along with only lukewarm waters\nare likely contributing toward Helene's weakening.  The shear\nshould further increase during the next two days, though the sea\nsurface temperatures will rebound up to 27C along with an increase\nin low-level moisture.  Helene is expected to be either slowly\nweakening or steady state during this time.  Beginning in about\nthree days, Helene will commence baroclinic transition, and it is\nexpected to become an extratropical cyclone by 96 hours.  The\nbaroclinic forcing should preclude any additional weakening through\nthe remainder of the forecast period, and the official intensity\nforecast is nearly the same as the last advisory.  This prediction\nis based on a blend of the stronger HWRF/COAMPS dynamical models and\nthe weaker SHIPS/LGEM statistical schemes for the next couple of\ndays, and is based on a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/UKMET global models\nat the extended lead times.\n\nHelene is moving northward at about 12 kt between the subtropical\nridge to its east and a deep-layer trough to its west.  The system\nshould accelerate and turn toward the northeast over the next few\ndays as it rounds the subtropical ridge and starts getting picked\nup by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is\nbased upon the tightly clustered variable consensus technique (TVCN)\nand is nearly the same as the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 26.3N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 28.8N  36.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 32.3N  35.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 35.5N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 37.9N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 40.6N  24.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 44.0N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/1800Z 51.0N   7.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nThe center of Isaac has been mostly exposed during the past several\nhours as temporary bursts of convection fire just east of the\ncenter.  Assuming some spin down of the circulation after the plane\nleft, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.  Since there haven't\nbeen any reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the\nLesser Antilles and the center is moving away, all watches and\nwarning have been lowered. However, there remains a threat of flash\nflooding due to a large area of rain that has yet to move through\nthe Lesser Antilles.\n\nStrong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the\nnext day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical\ndepression status on Friday.  However, the shear is forecast to\nweaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as\nthe system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea.  These conditions\nwould normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial\ncharacter of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether\nthere will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more\nconducive conditions.  Model guidance has been inconsistent on the\nfuture of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this\nsituation.  The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or\ndegenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the\nofficial forecast follows that consensus.  At this point it is\njust best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each\nadvisory to see if there are any changes.\n\nIsaac is moving westward at about 15 kt.  A mid-level ridge is\nforecast to persist over the southwestern Atlantic, steering Isaac\nwestward for the next few days, with a turn to the west-northwest\npossible at long range.  The future track is very uncertain at long\nrange because it is dependent on the intensity.  If Isaac\ndegenerates into a wave, the remnants will likely move south and\nwest of the guidance mean, and if the cyclone is stronger, it will\nprobably move slower and more to the right.  The new NHC forecast\nassumes that Isaac will stay weak, and therefore is on the left and\nfaster side of the guidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 14.9N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 14.9N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 14.9N  68.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 14.9N  70.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 15.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 16.2N  77.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 17.5N  81.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nJoyce has an exposed center this afternoon with no substantial\ndeep convection anywhere nearby.  The initial intensity\nremains 35 kt, consistent with the Hebert-Poteat ST2.5\nclassification from TAFB as well as the appearance of the very\ntight low-level center as seen in the GOES-16 visible satellite\nimagery.  As Joyce still remains embedded within an upper-level\ntrough, the system retains the subtropical storm label.\n\nJoyce has now been devoid of deep convection for almost a day, due\nto the dry stable air combined with strong tropospheric vertical\nshear.  As the system is not expected to undergo extratropical\ntransition, without deep convection gradual weakening is\nanticipated until dissipation in about four days.  The official\nintensity forecast is a blend of the IVCN intensity consensus\nscheme along with the GFS and ECMWF global model guidance.  This\nnew forecast indicates a reduction from the previous advisory, and\nin fact, Joyce could become a post-tropical cyclone soon if deep\nconvection does not reappear shortly.\n\nJoyce is moving toward the southwest at about 5 kt, as it is\nsituated slightly to the west of an upper-level low.  In a couple\ndays, a new short wave trough will dive equatorward west of Joyce\nand begin advecting Joyce toward the northeast.  The new NHC track\nforecast is a bit to the left (southwest) of the previous advisory\nand is based upon a blend of the HWRF hurricane model and the GFS\nand ECMWF global models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 33.6N  44.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 33.1N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 32.3N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 32.4N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 33.2N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 36.0N  39.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":59,"Date":"2018-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  59\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nRadar imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\nflight indicate that Florence has an inner eye that is open on the\neast side, and a secondary wind maximum that has already begun to\nspread inland across southeastern North Carolina.  The highest\nflight-level wind (102 kt) was actually measured within the outer\nband that is moving onshore in the Wilmington area.  However, the\nhighest SFMR-measured wind was 73 kt, and the highest land\nobservation so far was a sustained wind of 72 kt at Cape Lookout,\nNorth Carolina.  On top of that, NOAA Doppler radar velocities have\nbeen running around 100 kt at about 5,000 feet.  All of these data\nsupport reducing the initial intensity to 80 kt, but based on the\nhigher flight-level winds, the gust factor is being set a little\nhigher than is typical for an 80-kt hurricane.\n\nFlorence has been wobbling a little since the previous advisory,\nbut the 12-hour motion is northwestward, or 305/5 kt.  Nearly all\nof the track models agree that Florence will turn westward or\nwest-southwestward during the next 36 hours, bringing the\nhurricane's center inland over extreme southern North Carolina and\nextreme eastern South Carolina Friday and Friday night.  After 48\nhours, Florence is expected to recurve across the western Carolinas\nand the central Appalachian Mountains around a western Atlantic\nridge.  No major changes were required to the NHC official track\nforecast, and it is generally close to the multi-model consensus\naids.  It should be noted that the ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State\nSuperensemble still take Florence on a more southern track,\nstraddling the coast of South Carolina before turning inland.\nWhile that is not shown by the official forecast, it cannot yet be\nruled out as a possibility.\n\nFlorence's intensity is not likely to change much in the 12 hours\nor so it has left over water.  Once the center moves inland, the\nintensity is forecast to decrease.  However, since a good portion\nof Florence's circulation will remain over water for the next 36-48\nhours, the NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the regular SHIPS\nmodel (which assumes a storm staying over water) and the Decay-SHIPS\nmodel (which assumes the storm has moved inland).  Based on that,\nFlorence should weaken to a tropical storm just after 24 hours and\nthen below tropical storm strength after 48 hours.\n\nFlorence remains a large hurricane.  Life-threatening storm surge,\nheavy rainfall, and damaging wind will cover a large area regardless\nof exactly where the center of Florence moves.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along\nportions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through\nFriday.  This surge is also likely along portions of the South\nCarolina coast.  The greatest storm surge inundation is expected\nbetween Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse and Pamlico\nRivers and western Pamlico Sound.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,\nas Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of\nthe North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of\nthe South Carolina coast on Friday.  Strong winds could also spread\ninland into portions of the Carolinas over the next couple of days.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 34.0N  76.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 34.2N  77.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 34.0N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  15/1200Z 33.8N  79.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  16/0000Z 33.8N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  17/0000Z 35.5N  82.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  18/0000Z 39.5N  82.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  19/0000Z 44.0N  72.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nHelene's cloud pattern is beginning to have the appearance of a\ncyclone in extratropical transition with the rain shield limited to\nthe northwest quadrant.  The Dvorak numbers have decreased, but very\nrecent scatterometer data show winds of around 55 kt associated with\nHelene's circulation, and this is the intensity value used in this\nadvisory. Most of the guidance suggests that Helene's strength\nshould remain steady through the forecast period, perhaps due to\nbaroclinic forcing. On this basis, the NHC forecast keeps Helene\nwith the same intensity through the forecast period, but as a\npost-tropical cyclone beyond 3 days.\n\nHelene has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward the\nnorth or 010 degrees at about 18 kt.  The flow ahead of a sharp\nmid-level trough is well established, and this pattern will continue\nto steer Helene toward the north and then northeast during the next\nfew days. This is consistent with most of the track guidance which\nis indeed tightly clustered.  The NHC forecast is not very different\nfrom the previous one, and is in between the corrected consensus\nHCCA and the multi-model consensus aids.\n\nGiven the increase in forward speed and the expansion of the wind\nfield, a tropical storm warning will likely be required for a\nportion of the Azores early Friday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 28.6N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 31.4N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 34.8N  34.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 37.8N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 40.0N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 43.0N  21.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/0000Z 46.5N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/0000Z 53.0N   5.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nA burst of deep convection has developed and covered the previously\nexposed center of Isaac this evening.  However, there is still\nevidence of northwesterly shear over the cyclone as there is a\nrather sharp edge to the convective mass and the cirrus is quickly\nblowing off toward the southeast.  A recent ASCAT pass shows that\nthe circulation is not particularly well defined, but it did show\nsome light west or west-southwesterly winds, enough to keep the\nsystem classified as a tropical cyclone.  The ASCAT also revealed\nwinds of 30-32 kt, so the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which\nis also an average of the latest Dvorak current intensity numbers.\n\nModerate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are\nlikely to cause Isaac to weaken to a tropical depression or even\nbecome an open wave within the next day or so.  When Isaac reaches\nthe west-central Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, the shear may\nrelax somewhat and the global models suggest that there will be an\nincrease in mid-level moisture.  These conditions could allow for\nregeneration of the system, but given the uncertainty in whether\nIsaac will survive long enough to take advantage of these\nconditions, the official forecast still calls for dissipation like\nmost of the guidance.\n\nIsaac continues moving westward at about 14 kt.  The system should\nmove generally westward over the next couple of days as it is\nsteered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.  Later in the\nperiod, the models show that Isaac could gain some latitude, but\nthe official forecast is along the southern side of the guidance\nsince a weaker system is likely to move more westward.  The new NHC\ntrack forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 14.9N  64.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 15.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 15.0N  69.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 15.0N  71.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 15.2N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 16.3N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 17.7N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018\n\nBeginning around 6 hours ago, convection redeveloped near the center\nof Joyce.  Since then, the cyclone has become displaced from the\nupper-level low, and an ASCAT overpass around 2330 UTC showed that\nJoyce has a small radius of maximum winds of around 30 n mi. Based\non these factors, it appears Joyce has become a tropical cyclone.\nThe ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of just over 30 kt, but its\npossible the instrument slightly under-sampled the maximum winds of\nthe small cyclone.  In addition, convection near the center\nincreased somewhat after the time of the ASCAT pass. The initial\nintensity has therefore been held at 35 kt, making Joyce a tropical\nstorm.\n\nJoyce has accelerated a little toward the west-southwest, perhaps\nmore than previously anticipated.  As a result, the forecast has\nbeen shifted south at most forecast hours, but not quite as far as\nthe consensus models would suggest. There is otherwise no change\nto the track forecast reasoning, and Joyce is still expected to move\nslowly generally southward while Helene passes to the east until\naccelerating toward the northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough in\na day or two.\n\nDespite the recent, and perhaps temporary, resurgence of\nconvection, no change has been made to the intensity forecast.\nNone of the guidance shows much intensification, and the NHC\nforecast continues to rely on a blend of the intensity consensus\nand the GFS and ECMWF, which only show gradual weakening throughout\nthe forecast period.  Considering that the cyclone has only\ngradually weakened to this point, this still seems like a reasonable\nforecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 32.9N  44.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 32.2N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 31.7N  44.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 32.2N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 33.3N  42.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 36.0N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":60,"Date":"2018-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  60\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating\nFlorence over the past few hours.  Data from the aircraft indicate\nlittle change in the intensity with the central pressure holding\nfairly steady.  The current intensity estimate is kept at 80 kt for\nthis advisory.  There were a couple of SFMR-observed surface winds\nthat were a little higher than that value, however these\nobservations were very near Cape Lookout North Carolina, where\nshoaling likely caused some inflated wind speeds.  The current\nintensity estimate is also consistent with peak WSR-88D Doppler\nradar velocities.  The center of Florence will be moving inland very\nsoon, but is expected to slow down even more today and tonight.  As\na result, it will remain fairly close to the coast today, with much\nof the circulation still over water. Therefore only a gradual\ndecrease in intensity is called for through tonight. Over the\nweekend, a faster rate of weakening is likely while the center moves\nat a faster pace and goes farther inland.\n\nThe hurricane is turning westward as it continues a slow forward\nmotion of about 285/5 kt.  Florence is currently in a region of weak\nsteering currents associated with a col between two mid-level\nanticyclones.  Over the next few days, a high pressure area is\nforecast to build to the east-northeast of the tropical cyclone.\nAs a result, the system should gradually turn northwestward and\nnorthward in 2-3 days.  Later in the forecast period, Florence\nshould turn northeastward as it approaches the mid-latitude\nwesterlies.  The official track forecast is similar to the\nprevious one and about in the middle of the dynamical guidance\nsuite.\n\nIt cannot be emphasized enough that the most serious hazard\nassociated with slow-moving Florence is extremely heavy rainfall,\nwhich will cause disastrous flooding that will be spreading inland\nthrough the weekend.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along\nportions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through\ntoday and tonight.  This surge is also likely along portions of the\nSouth Carolina coast.  The greatest storm surge inundation is\nexpected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse\nand Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,\nas Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of\nthe North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of\nthe South Carolina coast later today.  Strong winds could\nalso spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next\ncouple of days.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 34.2N  77.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 34.1N  78.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  15/0600Z 33.9N  79.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  15/1800Z 33.8N  79.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  16/0600Z 34.1N  81.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  17/0600Z 36.6N  83.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  18/0600Z 40.5N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  19/0600Z 43.5N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nHelene is looking increasingly like an extratropical cyclone, with\na rain shield extending from its northwest quadrant and a line of\nclouds to the southeast, probably associated with a convergence\nzone, that looks like a developing a front. However, earlier ASCAT\ndata suggested that the cyclone still had a compact wind field with\nmaximum winds of around 55 kt on the west side, and the most recent\navailable AMSU data still showed a distinct warm core.\n\nThe extratropical transition (ET) process will likely be completed\nwithin the next 48 h, around the time that Helene will likely pass\nnear or over the Azores. While this process occurs, little weakening\nis forecast by the various dynamical models, but gradual weakening\nshould occur once ET is completed. By the end of the forecast\nperiod, nearly all of the global models depict the cyclone being\nabsorbed into a larger mid-latitude low pressure system over the far\nnortheast Atlantic.\n\nHelene continues to accelerate northward, and the initial motion is\n010/20 kt. Almost no change has been made to the track forecast.\nHelene is still forecast to move quickly northward to\nnorth-northeastward between a mid-level ridge to its east and a\nsharp mid-latitude trough to its west.  A northeastward turn should\noccur over the weekend as Helene reaches the northern extent of the\nridge and becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The\nofficial track forecast remains near the various consensus aids.\n\nThe government of Portugal has issued an orange wind warning for\nthe Azores, equivalent to a tropical storm warning.  Tropical Storm\nconditions with gusty winds and heavy rains are likely over the\nweekend as Helene passes the islands, regardless of whether the\ncyclone is a tropical storm or post-tropical.\n\nHelene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches\nIreland and the United Kingdom in a few days.  Interests in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for information about potential impacts from Helene.  Local\nforecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the\nUK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and\nwarnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at\nhttps://www.met.ie/.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 30.6N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 33.4N  35.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 36.7N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 39.3N  30.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 41.3N  26.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  17/0600Z 45.5N  17.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/0600Z 51.5N   8.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isaac","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Isaac Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nNorthwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Isaac.  Although the\nsystem is still producing areas of deep convection, an ASCAT\noverpass that arrived shortly after the release of the previous\nadvisory, indicated that the circulation had become even less\ndefined.  The ASCAT data also showed that the winds are below\ntropical storm strength, therefore the initial intensity has been\nreduced to 30 kt.\n\nModerate to strong northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are\nlikely to cause additional weakening, and Isaac is forecast to\ndegenerate into an open wave within the next several days, but this\ncould occur much sooner if the current trends continue.\nWhen the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea the shear may\nrelax somewhat and moisture levels are expected to be higher.  These\nconditions could allow for regeneration of the system, but the ECMWF\nand GFS both show Issac weakening and moving over the western\nCaribbean as an open wave, and the NHC forecast follows this\nscenario.\n\nA low- to mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic continues\nto steer Isaac westward, and this general motion should continue\nuntil dissipation occur.  The new track forecast is once again\nessentially an update of the previous advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 15.0N  65.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 15.1N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 15.2N  69.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 15.2N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 15.4N  73.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 16.4N  77.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nThere has been little change in the convective organization of\nJoyce overnight.  The system continues to produce bands of\nconvection over the northeastern portion of the circulation, but\nthe center remains exposed due to shear.  The initial intensity is\nheld at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data and recent\nTAFB satellite estimate.\n\nJoyce is still moving southwestward or 210 degrees at 7 kt.  Joyce\nis being steered in that direction around the larger circulation of\nHelene to its east-southeast.  Once Helene passes east-northeast of\nJoyce later today, Joyce should turn eastward, then begin to\naccelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the\nweekend.  The global models have trended toward a faster\nnortheastward motion after 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted in that direction as well.\n\nSouthwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to increase over the\ncyclone within the next day or two, which should prevent Joyce from\nstrengthening.  The NHC forecast calls for little change in\nwind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the shear\nincreases further. Both the GFS and ECMWF dissipate Joyce by day 4,\nbut the system could lose its deep convection and become\npost-tropical before that time.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 32.1N  44.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 31.7N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 31.8N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 32.7N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 34.0N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 36.5N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":61,"Date":"2018-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Florence Discussion Number  61\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nFlorence's satellite signature remains very impressive even though\nthe eye is now located just inland over southeastern North Carolina\nnear Cape Fear. However, land interaction has taken its toll on the\ninner-core circulation, and the previously well-defined eye in\nradar imagery has shrunk and become filled with rain echoes. The\nadvisory intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on earlier\nreports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, NOAA\nDoppler weather radar velocity data from Wilmington and Morehead\nCity, and nearby surface observations. The central pressure of 958\nmb is based on observations from a NOAA NOS site in Wrightsville\nBeach and a Weatherflow private station in Federal Point. Another\nAir Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be sampling the portion of\nFlorence's circulation over water during the next few hours.\n\nFlorence has turned west-southwestward and the motion estimate\nis now 245/03 kt. Florence is expected to remain embedded within a\nweak steering flow regime within a weakness in the subtropical\nridge, resulting in a slow westward motion for the next 36-48 hours\nacross South Carolina. As a shortwave trough currently located over\nthe eastern Great Lakes to Maryland moves eastward away from the\nregion over the next 2 days, the ridge will begin to build back in\nand shift eastward, allowing Florence or its remnants to gradually\nturn northward over the weekend, and then move northeastward into\nthe mid-latitude westerlies as an extratropical low. The new NHC\nforecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to\nthe middle of the model guidance envelope.\n\nWind data from the earlier aircraft mission, along with Doppler\nradar velocity data and surface observations, indicate that Florence\nhas weakened. Additional slow weakening is expected today as the\ncenter of Florence moves farther inland, with more rapid weakening\nforecast over the weekend as Florence moves westward across South\nCarolina. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the\nprevious advisory, and closely follows the trend of Decay SHIPS\nmodel.\n\nAlthough coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside later\ntoday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another serious hazard\nassociated with slow-moving Florence is and will be extremely heavy\nrainfall. More than 14 inches of rain has already fallen in many\nareas across southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to\ncome, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread inland\nthrough the weekend.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along\nportions of the North Carolina coast and will continue through\ntoday and tonight.  This surge is also likely along portions of the\nSouth Carolina coast.  The greatest storm surge inundation is\nexpected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neuse\nand Pamlico Rivers and western Pamlico Sound.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern and central Appalachians through early next week,\nas Florence is expected to slow down while it moves inland.\n\n3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are occurring along portions of\nthe North Carolina coast and are expected to spread to portions of\nthe South Carolina coast later today.  Strong winds could also\nspread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next\ncouple of days.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 34.0N  78.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  15/0000Z 33.9N  78.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  15/1200Z 33.8N  79.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  16/0000Z 33.9N  80.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  16/1200Z 34.7N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  17/1200Z 37.7N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  18/1200Z 41.2N  78.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  19/1200Z 44.4N  68.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":29,"Date":"2018-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nConventional satellite imagery and a 1147 UTC METOP-B AMSU\nmicrowave image show a deep convective curved band wrapping around\nthe surface circulation in the west semicircle.  Additionally, a\nrecent 1148 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates that Helene is\na little stronger than earlier estimated.  The data showed a number\nof 60 kt winds in the northeast quadrant.  Based on these data,\nHelene is still classified as a tropical cyclone, and the initial\nintensity is bumped up to 60 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe large-scale models and the statistical intensity guidance\nindicate little change in strength during the next 36 hours or so.\nAfter that time, some gradual weakening is forecast as Helene\ncompletes extratropical transition while passing just to the north\nof the Azores Islands.  The ECMWF, UKMET, and the CMC all show\nHelene absorbed by a larger baroclinic system just beyond the 72\nhour period, as the cyclone moves over Ireland and the United\nKingdom.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 010/20 kt,\nwithin the deep-layer southerly flow produced by a mid-tropospheric\ntrough to the west.  A north-northeast to northeast turn is expected\nover the weekend as the cyclone quickly moves within the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  Only a slight adjustment to the left of\nthe previous track forecast was made through 48 hours.  The NHC\nofficial forecast is based primarily on the TVCN multi-model\nconsensus.\n\nAn orange wind warning is in effect for the Azores, equivalent to a\ntropical storm warning.  Tropical Storm conditions with gusty winds\nand heavy rains are likely over the weekend as Helene passes the\nislands, regardless of whether the cyclone is a tropical storm or\npost-tropical.\n\nHelene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches\nIreland and the United Kingdom in a few days.  Interests in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for information about potential impacts from Helene.  Local\nforecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the\nUK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts\nand warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann\nat https://www.met.ie/.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 32.9N  36.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 35.5N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 38.4N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 40.7N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 42.7N  25.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  17/1200Z 47.4N  16.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isaac","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Isaac Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nDeep convection has been increasing near the center of Isaac, but\nvisible imagery indicates that the circulation has become\nmore elongated from northeast to southwest.  It is possible that\nIsaac is in the process of losing a well-defined center, but we will\nknow more about the wind structure in a few hours since the NOAA\nHurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area.  The initial wind\nspeed is held at 30 kt.\n\nVertical shear has decreased near Isaac, with some outflow in the\nwestern semicircle noted and consolidation of the convection.\nStill, this area of the eastern Caribbean isn't known as the\ngraveyard for nothing, and the system might just be too shallow and\ndisorganized to take advantage of the changing environment.  Almost\nall of the dynamical models, save the UKMET, show the cyclone moving\nwestward to west-northwestward at a slower forward speed during the\nnext few days and degenerating into an open wave in the central\nCaribbean Sea.  This solution is also supported by fewer members of\nthe GFS and ECMWF ensemble now maintaining a coherent system in the\nlong range.  Little change is made to the previous track and\nintensity forecasts, and we will see what the aircraft finds this\nafternoon and if the 1200 UTC model cycle maintains the dissipation\ntrend.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 14.9N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 15.0N  69.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 15.1N  71.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 15.2N  73.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 15.6N  75.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 17.0N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nJoyce has again changed little in organization since the last\nadvisory, with several small bands of convection to the east and\nnortheast of the partly exposed center.  The initial intensity\nremains 35 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimates from\nTAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is now 180/7.  Joyce is currently being steered\nby the larger and stronger Helene to its east, and a southward to\nsoutheastward motion is expected for the next 12 h or so.  As\nHelene passes to the east-northeast of Joyce, Joyce should turn\neastward and northeastward with a faster forward speed due to the\napproach of a mid-latitude trough from the west.  The global models\nhave again trended toward a faster northeastward motion after 24 h,\nand the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to be faster and a\nlittle farther to the east.\n\nThere is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy from the\nprevious advisory.  Southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to\nincrease over the cyclone within the next day or two, which should\nprevent Joyce from strengthening.  The NHC forecast calls for little\nchange in wind speed over the next 36 h, then shows weakening as the\nshear increases further.  The global models mostly dissipate Joyce\nby day 4, but the system could lose its deep convection and become\npost-tropical before that time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 31.6N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 31.3N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 32.0N  42.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 33.2N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 34.6N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 36.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":62,"Date":"2018-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  62\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nFlorence's satellite appearance continues to be quite impressive\nwith well-established outflow and a nearly symmetrical cloud\npattern. In radar imagery, however, the inner-core convection has\ncontinued to weaken and the echoes are now more stratiform in\nnature, while outer banding remains rather vigorous, especially\nsouth of Cape Lookout and Morehead City, North Carolina. An eye is\nno longer evident, and the pressure has continued to rise to a\nnow estimated to be 972 mb based on nearby surface observations. Air\nForce Reserve aircraft data, NOAA Doppler weather radar velocity\ndata from Wilmington, and nearby surface observations indicate that\nFlorence's intensity has decreased to 60 kt, tropical storm status.\n\nFlorence has turned westward and the motion estimate is now 270/03\nkt. The new 1200Z global and regional model guidance is in good\nagreement on Florence moving slowly in a general westward direction\nfor the next 48 hours or so, followed by a northward motion on day 3\nas the system moves around the western periphery of a narrow\nsubtropical ridge. On days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn\nnortheastward and accelerate ahead of an approaching shortwave\ntrough and frontal system, and emerge off the northeast U.S. coast\nas an extratropical low. The new official forecast track is very\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and is lies near the northern\nand eastern edge of model guidance envelope, is closer to the\nTVCA/TVCN consensus models.\n\nFlorence is expected to only slowly weaken overnight due to its\nproximity to the warm Atlantic where convective bands are expected\nto continue to develop and propagate inland in the eastern and\nsouthern portion of the circulation, which will act to bring down\nsome of the stronger winds aloft. It is worth noting that the last\nreconnaissance pass indicated 700-mb flight-level winds of 77 kt\njust east of Charleston, South Carolina, so it won't take much\nconvection to bring down some of those stronger winds to the\nsurface as gusts. More rapid weakening is forecast over the weekend\nas Florence moves westward across the higher terrain of central\nand northwestern South Carolina. The official intensity forecast\nfollows the weakening trend of the previous advisory, and is similar\nto an average of the GFS- and ECMWF-based Decay SHIPS models.\n\nAlthough coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside\ntonight and Saturday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another\nserious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence will continue\nto be extremely heavy rainfall. More than 16 inches of rain has\nalready fallen in many areas across southeastern North Carolina, and\nmore rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding\nthat will spread inland through the weekend.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of\nthe North Carolina coast through tonight, and also along the Neuse\nand Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and\nfreshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.\nDangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast\ncoast of South Carolina coast tonight.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the\nCarolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western\nNorth Carolina into southwest Virginia through early next week, as\nFlorence moves slowly inland.  In addition to the flash flood and\nflooding threat, mudslides are also possible in the higher terrain\nof the southern and central Appalachians across western North\nCarolina into southwest Virginia.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within\nthe tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions\nof South Carolina and North Carolina.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 34.0N  78.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  15/0600Z 33.9N  79.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  15/1800Z 33.9N  80.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  16/0600Z 34.4N  81.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  16/1800Z 35.5N  82.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  17/1800Z 38.5N  82.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  18/1800Z 41.5N  76.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  19/1800Z 44.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":30,"Date":"2018-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nThe 40-45 kt of southwesterly vertical shear has really taken its\ntoll on Helene's cloud pattern.  A severe tilt toward the northeast\nis evident in conventional and microwave imagery.  Despite the\nsheared structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity is held at\n60 kt due to the earlier scatterometer pass showing that value in\nthe northeast quadrant, and a 1603 UTC SATCON analysis that yields\nan intensity estimate of 58 kt.\n\nLittle change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours as\nHelene remains over 26 to 27C sea surface temperatures.  Beyond that\nbrief period, the cyclone should weaken a bit as it completes\nextratropical transition while passing just to the northwest of the\nAzores Islands and traversing much cooler waters.  The European\nmodels and the Canadian still show Helene being absorbed by a larger\nbaroclinic system in 4 days, as the cyclone quickly approaches\nIreland and the United Kingdom.  The GFS, which earlier indicated a\ndifferent solution resulting in Helene taking a more north-\nnortheastward to northwest track around the periphery of a\nlarger, complex non-tropical low, now shows Helene merging with a\nfront, similar to the European and Canadian scenario.\n\nA series of recent microwave passes reveal that Helene's surface\ncirculation has been tracking quite a bit to the left of the\nprevious forecasts.  Consequently, an adjustment to the best track\nwas made to conform more with the microwave overpasses.  The initial\nmotion is estimated to be northward, or 010/16 kt.  It is also quite\npossible that there maybe some binary involvement between Helene and\nTropical Storm Joyce that could be influencing a motion just to the\nleft of track.  In any event, a north-northeast to northeast turn is\nexpected over the weekend as the cyclone accelerates within the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC forecast is again adjusted to the\nleft through 36 hours, due to the much welcomed microwave images,\nand is in best agreement with TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nHelene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches\nIreland and the United Kingdom in a few days.  Interests in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for information about potential impacts from Helene.  Local\nforecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the\nUK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts\nand warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann\nat https://www.met.ie/.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 34.1N  36.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 36.4N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 38.9N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 41.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 43.3N  25.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  17/1800Z 49.5N  12.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":29,"Date":"2018-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nIt has been a very interesting flight of the NOAA Hurricane Hunter\naircraft this afternoon.  Dropsonde and SFMR data indicate that the\nmaximum winds are around 35 kt again, and the pressure has fallen\nto about 1002 mb.  However, the system is tilted southward with\nvertical height due to northerly shear, and scatterometer and\nHurricane Hunter tail-Doppler radar data indicate the system is\nelongated from northeast to southwest, albeit closed.  Note that the\nplane was unable to sample the southwestern quadrant well because of\nstrong convection and intense lightning, so the flight-level winds\nshowing no circulation were unrepresentative.\n\nThe intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac.\nVertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might\ndiminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around\nthe cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that\nIsaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which\nis almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble\nmembers.  This is the solution that the official forecast follows.\nIt should be noted that none of the global models show pressures\nthis low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one\nthat holds onto the circulation the longest.  The reality of the\nsituation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the\nbest advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see\nif we gain any confidence.\n\nIsaac is moving westward at about 12 kt.  A ridge over the\nsouthwestern Atlantic should steer the cyclone westward over the\nweekend then west-northwestward early next week as Isaac reaches a\nweaker portion of the ridge.  Just like yesterday, a stronger system\nwould likely turn more to the west-northwest earlier, moving\ncloser to Jamaica.  Since the system is forecast to be weaker, the\nforecast lies on the westward and faster side of the guidance, and\nshould also be considered low confidence since it depends on the\nintensity.  Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of the\nIsaac.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.3N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 15.4N  70.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 15.4N  72.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 15.7N  74.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 16.2N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 17.5N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nConvection associated with Joyce has increased since the last\nadvisory, with a vigorous band now near the center in the northern\nsemicircle.  In response, satellite intensity estimates have edged\nupward, and the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt as a blend\nbetween the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimates and the CIMSS\nsatellite consensus.  The cyclone now has good cirrus outflow in\nthe northern semicircle as an upper-level low seen in water vapor\nimagery passes south of the cyclone.\n\nThe storm is starting its forecast turn toward the east and the\ninitial motion is now 125/5.  As Tropical Storm Helene to the\neast-northeast of Joyce moves away, Joyce is expected to turn\nnortheastward with an increase in forward speed during the next\n24 h, followed by an eastward turn after 48 h.  The global models\ncontinue to trend faster, and after 48 h there has been a southward\nshift compared to the previous guidance.  Therefore, the new\nforecast track will be notably faster than the previous track and\nthe 72 h point will be shifted southward.  The new track is still a\nlittle to the north of the various consensus models.\n\nSouthwesterly upper-level winds are still forecast to increase over\nthe cyclone during the next day or two, and the forecast track takes\nJoyce over decreasing sea surface temperatures.  This combination\nshould lead to a weakening trend, especially after 24 h.  The new\nintensity forecast is adjusted upward a little from the previous\none based on the initial intensity, but it still calls for Joyce to\ndissipate by 96 h in agreement with most of the global models.  It\nis possible that Joyce could strengthen a little more during the\nfirst 12 h while the upper-level low helps keep the stronger shear\naway from the storm.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 31.4N  44.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 31.6N  43.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 32.6N  41.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 33.9N  38.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 35.0N  35.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 35.5N  28.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":63,"Date":"2018-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  63\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nAlthough we lost data from the Wilmington, North Carolina,\nWSR-88D radar several hours ago, the radars from Raleigh and\nColumbia have clearly shown Florence's center has moved into extreme\neastern South Carolina.  Reflectivities around the eye have been\ndecreasing, but there are still some strong spiral bands moving from\nsoutheast to northwest across portions of southeastern North\nCarolina.  Maximum Doppler velocities are 65-70 kt from 5000-7000\nfeet, and on this basis Florence's maximum surface winds are\nestimated to be 55 kt.\n\nRadar fixes indicate that Florence has turned west-southwestward\nand has an initial motion of 255/4 kt.  A mid-level high centered\nnear Iowa and Missouri is expected to slide eastward to the north\nof Florence over the next 48 hours, which should cause the storm to\nmaintain a slow motion and gradually turn toward the west and\nnorthwest over the Carolinas.  For this period, the new official\nforecast track has been shifted a bit southward to follow an\noverall trend in the model guidance, but this isn't surprising\ngiven what some of the models were showing last night.  After 48\nhours, Florence is expected to get picked up by the mid-latitude\nwesterlies, accelerating north and northeastward to the western\nAtlantic by day 5.  The NHC track forecast is fairly close to the\nTVCN multi-model consensus and just a little south of the previous\nforecast beyond 72 hours.\n\nFlorence's winds should continue to slowly decay as the center\nambles farther inland, but enough of the circulation should remain\nover water to allow the cyclone to remain as a tropical storm for\nthe next 24 hours or so.  This thinking follows the global model\nfields of the GFS and ECMWF models.  After 24 hours, most of\nFlorence's circulation should be inland, allowing the cyclone to\nweaken to a tropical depression and eventually degenerate into a\nremnant low over the Ohio Valley by day 3.  The remnant low is then\nlikely to become an extratropical low by day 4, and it forecast to\nbegin producing gale-force winds well east of New England to the\nsouth of Atlantic Canada.\n\nAlthough coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside\ntonight and Saturday, it cannot be emphasized enough that another\nserious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence will continue\nto be extremely heavy rainfall.  More than a foot of rain has\nalready fallen across portions of southeastern North Carolina, and\nmore rain is still to come, which will cause disastrous flooding\nthat will spread inland through the weekend.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of\nthe North Carolina coast through tonight, and also along the Neuse\nand Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and\nfreshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.\nDangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast\ncoast of South Carolina coast tonight.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the\nCarolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western\nNorth Carolina into southwest Virginia through early next week, as\nFlorence moves slowly inland.  In addition to the flash flood and\nflooding threat, landslides are also possible in the higher terrain\nof the southern and central Appalachians across western North\nCarolina into southwest Virginia.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within\nthe tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions\nof South Carolina and North Carolina through Saturday.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 33.8N  79.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  15/1200Z 33.7N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  16/0000Z 33.8N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  16/1200Z 34.4N  81.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  17/0000Z 35.9N  83.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  18/0000Z 39.3N  81.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/0000Z 41.0N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/0000Z 43.5N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":31,"Date":"2018-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nData from a timely ASCAT pass indicate that Helene still carries\nwinds of 60 kt, primarily in the eastern semicircle.  The cloud\npattern continues to show a low-level center just south of the main\nconvection, marking the strong shear which is affecting the system.\nGuidance indicates that Helene will not change much in intensity in\nthe next 12 hours, and only a slight decrease in the winds is\nanticipated after that time.  The wind field is forecast to expand\nmainly in the southeast quadrant, which is the area of the cyclone\nthat most likely will affect the Azores. After passing to the north\nof, or near, the Azores in about 24 hours, Helene will be moving\nover cold waters and become post-tropical.  The cyclone should be\nabsorbed by a larger extratropical low, as the cyclone quickly\napproaches Ireland and the United Kingdom.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Helene is moving toward the\nnorth-northeast or 030 degrees at about 16 kt. Helene is embedded\nwithin the fast southwesterly flow ahead of a sharp mid-level\ntrough and this pattern should steer the cyclone toward the\nnortheast with a gradual increase in forward speed. Track guidance\nis very consistent with this solution, and the NHC forecast\ncontinues in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.\n\nHelene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches\nIreland and the United Kingdom in a few days.  Interests in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for information about potential impacts from Helene.  Local\nforecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the\nUK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts\nand warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann\nat https://www.met.ie/.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 35.8N  35.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 38.0N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 40.3N  31.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 42.5N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/0000Z 45.0N  21.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/0000Z 51.5N   9.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":30,"Date":"2018-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nIsaac has rapidly lost organization since the last advisory. The\ncyclone has been devoid of any deep convection for most of the\nevening, with only a small burst recently forming well to the west\nof where Isaac's low-level center is believed to be located. While\nit is possible, if not likely, that the maximum winds have decreased\na little since this afternoon due to the lack of convection, the\ninitial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft\ndata. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate\nIsaac again overnight and will provide a better estimate of the\nstrength and status of Isaac.\n\nThe global models continue to insist that Isaac could open into a\ntrough at any time, and based on the current state of the cyclone,\nthis could be imminent. The regional hurricane models, however, show\nthe development of one or more mesoscale lows embedded within a\nlarger cyclonic envelope that cause Isaac to persist for at least a\nfew more days in those models. While the global model solution still\nseems more likely, I can't rule out that Isaac will persist a little\nlonger, so the NHC forecast still carries a 72 h forecast point.\nRegardless of whether Isaac is a tropical storm or a tropical wave\nover the next few days, heavy rains and occasional gusty winds are\nstill likely across much of the Greater Antilles through the next\ncouple of days.\n\nIt has been very difficult to try to pinpoint a low-level center of\nIsaac over the past few hours, but based on microwave data it\nappears to still be moving west at about 13 kt. The GFS and ECMWF\nare in very good agreement and show Isaac, or its remnants, moving\nsteadily westward for the next several days. The regional models on\nthe other hand show a farther north motion, in part due to one or\nmore reformations of the center. The NHC forecast continues to favor\nthe global model solutions and is on the south side of the guidance\nenvelope, however if it becomes clear that Isaac will survive\nlonger, a northward adjustment may be required in later advisories.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 15.4N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 15.5N  71.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 15.7N  73.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 16.2N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 16.7N  77.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 18.7N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 14 2018\n\nJoyce continues to look better organized on GOES-16 satellite\nimagery and the convective canopy has expanded. However, recent\nmicrowave data reveals that the cyclone is still tilted to the\nnortheast due to nearly strong southwesterly wind shear. The most\nrecent TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications support raising the\ninitial intensity to 45 kt. Despite the shear, most of the intensity\nguidance shows very slight strengthening over the next 12 to 24\nhours, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the\nprevious advisory at most forecast times. Persistent shear and\ndecreasing SSTs along the forecast track should cause Joyce to\nweaken beyond that time, likely dissipating entirely shortly after\n72 h.  A few models, most notably the HWRF and UKMET, persist the\ncyclone a little beyond that, but only as a remnant low.\n\nThe storm has turned east as expected, and the initial motion is now\n090/5 kt. As the larger Helene begins to accelerate away, a\nmid-latitude trough over the central Atlantic should cause Joyce to\nturn northeastward and speed up. A turn back toward the east, or\npossibly even east-southeast is possible by the end of the forecast\nperiod as Joyce weakens and follows the northern periphery of a\nsubtropical high over eastern Atlantic.  Very little change has been\nmade to the track forecast through 48 h, but it has been adjusted to\nthe south at 72 h, following the latest consensus guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 31.6N  43.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 32.2N  42.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 33.2N  39.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 34.4N  37.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 35.1N  33.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 34.0N  28.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":64,"Date":"2018-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  64\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nFlorence is slowly weakening while its center remains inland over\nextreme eastern South Carolina.  However, WSR-88D Doppler radar\nstill shows some intense bands of convection over the eastern\nportion of the circulation, and these bands have been training over\nthe coast of North Carolina overnight.  Based on current Doppler\nvelocities of 55-60 kt at around 5500 ft, the current intensity is\nset at 45 kt.  The system should continue to weaken as it moves\nfarther inland today, and it is anticipated that Florence will\nbecome a tropical depression tonight.  The official intensity\nforecast is similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through\naround day 3.  By days 4 and 5, the post-tropical cyclone is\nforecast to strengthen somewhat due to baroclinic processes after\nmoving off the New England coast and passing near southern Atlantic\nCanada.\n\nRadar and satellite fixes indicate that Florence continues its\nwest-southwestward motion at around 255/4 kt.  A mid-level high\npressure area to the northwest of Florence is forecast to shift to\nthe north, northeast, and east of the cyclone over the next couple\nof days.  As a result, Florence should turn northwestward and\nnorthward, and then north-northeastward through 72 hours.  Late\nin the forecast period, the system is expected to accelerate\neast-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official\nforecast is somewhat faster than the previous one at days 4 and 5\nbut is in good agreement with the latest global model runs.\n\nAlthough coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside\ntoday, extremely heavy rainfall will continue to be a serious\nhazard associated with slow-moving Florence.  More than a foot of\nrain has already fallen across portions of southeastern North\nCarolina, and more rain is still to come, which will cause\ndisastrous flooding that will spread inland through the weekend.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of\nthe North Carolina coast through today, and also along the Neuse\nand Pamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and\nfreshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.\nDangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast\ncoast of South Carolina coast today.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the\nCarolinas and the southern to central Appalachians from western\nNorth Carolina into west-central Virginia and far eastern West\nVirginia through early next week, as Florence moves slowly inland.\nIn addition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are\nalso possible in the higher terrain of the southern and central\nAppalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within\nthe tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions\nof South Carolina and North Carolina today.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 33.6N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 33.6N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  16/0600Z 33.9N  81.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  16/1800Z 35.1N  82.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  17/0600Z 37.0N  83.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  18/0600Z 40.5N  80.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/0600Z 43.5N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/0600Z 47.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":32,"Date":"2018-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nHelene appears to be maintaining its strength.  Recent microwave\nimages show that the storm has an eye feature, but the vortex is\nsignificantly tilted in the vertical due to southwesterly shear.\nDeep convection is most organized in bands to the north and west of\nthe center. Based on the tropical storm's appearance in microwave\nimages, the initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, near the high\nend of the satellite intensity estimates. Helene is expected to\ngradually weaken during the next few days due to the influences of\nsouthwesterly shear, drier air, and much cooler SSTs along the\nforecast track. These conditions should also cause Helene to lose\ntropical characteristics, and the storm is forecast become\nextratropical in 24 to 36 hours.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at a fairly fast\npace, 19 kt.  The center of Helene is expected to pass to the west\nof the Azores by tonight.  However, Helene has a fairly large wind\nfield, and tropical-storm-force winds are expected across the\nwestern Azores as the storm passes by. A shortwave trough to the\nnorthwest of the system is expected to approach Helene by tonight,\nand that should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward and then\nspeed up in that direction as it heads toward Ireland and the United\nKingdom late this weekend and early next week.  The models are in\nfair agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC\ntrack forecast.\n\nHelene is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone when it approaches\nIreland and the United Kingdom in two to three days. Interests in\nthose locations should consult products from their local\nmeteorological service for information about potential impacts from\nHelene.  Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the\nwebsite of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.\nLocal forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website\nof Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 37.7N  34.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 39.7N  32.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 41.8N  29.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 44.1N  24.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/0600Z 46.7N  18.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/0600Z 55.8N   5.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Isaac","Adv":31,"Date":"2018-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Isaac Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092018\n500 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Isaac over the past\nfew hours and was unable to identify a well-defined center. The\nplane found multiple small and poorly-defined circulations embedded\nwithin a larger area of weak and variable winds, well to the south\nof the previous estimated center location. The plane also found that\nthe minimum pressure has risen to around 1006 mb. All of this data\nconfirmed what two late-arriving ASCAT overpasses from earlier this\nevening indicated, that Isaac has opened up into a southwest to\nnortheast oriented trough. Since Isaac does not have a well-defined\ncenter, it no longer meets the NHC definition of a tropical cyclone\nand this is the last advisory.\n\nThe strongest SFMR winds found by the plane were around 30 kt,\nmainly to the north of the deep convection, so the intensity has\nbeen set at that value.  Although some of the regional hurricane\nmodels suggest that small short-lived circulations like the ones\nfound by the plane could temporarily spin up within the larger\nenvelope of the tropical wave over the next several days, none of\nthe dynamical models currently show any significant redevelopment of\nIsaac. The wave will likely continue westward across the Caribbean\nSea over the next few days, producing gusty winds and occasional\nheavy rains over portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica.\n\nThis is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane\nCenter on Isaac. Additional information can be found in High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header\nNFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available online at\nhttps://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 14.8N  70.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nThere has not much change with Joyce overnight.  The tropical storm\nis producing a fair amount of deep convection to the north and west\nof the center, but there are some dry slots on the east side.  A\nblend of the latest satellite intensity estimates supports holding\nthe initial wind speed at 45 kt.  Joyce is currently just east of an\nupper-level trough and the flow aloft is quite diffluent near the\ncyclone.  This upper-level pattern could allow Joyce to strengthen\nslightly today.  However, by tonight, southwesterly flow aloft is\nexpected to increase over the cyclone.  This increase in shear\ncombined with decreasing mid-level humidities and cooling SSTs\nshould lead to a steady weakening trend after 12 hours.  The cyclone\nis forecast to dissipate in 3 to 4 days, but some of the models\nsuggest that this could occur sooner.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving eastward at 7 kt.  Joyce is embedded\nin the same trough as Helene and it should follow that tropical\ncyclone east-northeastward to northeastward at increasing forward\nspeeds during the next day or two.  Beyond that time, if there\nis anything left of Joyce, the system will likely turn back to the\neast or east-southeast as it moves within the mid-latitude\nwesterlies.  The models are in fairly good agreement, and this\nforecast lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 31.9N  42.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 32.7N  40.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 33.9N  37.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 34.6N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 34.7N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 33.0N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":65,"Date":"2018-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  65\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nFlorence continues to creep slowly westward and weaken across\neastern South Carolina. NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar data\nindicate strong winds near 60 kt still exist between 3000-10000 ft\nwithin intense rainbands situated between the Cape Fear/Wilmington\narea and Bogue Inlet, North Carolina. Although those velocity values\nwould typically correlate to 50-kt surface winds, those winds appear\nto be associated with small mesoscale circulations and possible\nsupercell thunderstorms, and not the larger tangential wind field.\nIn contrast, surface observations during the past couple of hours\nhave only shown sustained winds of around 40 kt, so that is the\nintensity used for this advisory. The estimated central pressure\nof 995 mb is based on nearby surface observations across eastern\nSouth Carolina.\n\nRadar data and surface observations indicate that Florence has\nturned more westward, and has slowed down even more, and the initial\nmotion estimate is now 270/02 kt.  The models remain in very good\nagreement that a mid-level ridge currently centered over the upper\nMidwest will slide eastward across the lower Great Lakes to near the\nnortheastern U.S. during the next 48 hours.  This feature is\nexpected to steer Florence and its remnants in a general westward\nmotion for the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the\nnorthwest on Monday.  The ridge will continue to shift eastward and\nweaken, allowing Florence's circulation to get caught up in the\nfaster mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate toward the northeast\non day 3 and toward the east-northeast on days 4 and 5 as an\nextratropical low pressure system. The new NHC track is similar to\nthe previous advisory track, and lies near the consensus model\nTCVA/TVCN.\n\nFlorence's inner-core convection and wind field will continue to\nweaken throughout the next 72 hours or so. However, the outer wind\nfield and an associated band of deep convection in the eastern\nsemicircle will likely produce sustained tropical-storm-force winds\nfor another 12 hours or so, with some high gusts continuing until\nthe band moves inland by late Sunday as per the latest the latest\nNOAA HRRR and other mesoscale model runs. More importantly,\ncontinued heavy rains will be produced by this band of convection,\nwhich will exacerbate the already catastrophic flooding that is\noccurring across much of southeastern North Carolina. The official\nintensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model guidance\nand the intensity model IVCN through 72 hours, and then follows a\nblend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE consensus models on days 4 and 5\nwhen the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to strengthen due to\nbaroclinic processes after moving over the relatively warm waters of\nthe northwestern Atlantic Ocean.\n\nAlthough coastal storm surge flooding will gradually subside today,\nespecially after the midday high-tide period ends, extremely heavy\nrainfall will continue to be a serious hazard associated with\nslow-moving Florence.  More than two feet of rain has already fallen\nacross portions of southeastern North Carolina, and more rain is\nstill to come, which will cause disastrous flooding that will spread\ninland through the weekend.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge will continue along portions of the\nNorth Carolina coast through today, and also along the Neuse and\nPamlico Rivers in western Pamlico Sound, where rainfall and\nfreshwater flooding will also contribute to high water levels.\nDangerous storm surge could also affect portions of the northeast\ncoast of South Carolina coast today.\n\n2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina\ninto west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through\nearly next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the\nflash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the\nhigher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across\nwestern North Carolina into southwest Virginia.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within\nthe tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions\nof South Carolina and North Carolina today.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 33.6N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  16/0000Z 33.6N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  16/1200Z 34.4N  81.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  17/0000Z 36.0N  82.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  17/1200Z 38.0N  82.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  18/1200Z 41.3N  76.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/1200Z 44.3N  63.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/1200Z 48.5N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":33,"Date":"2018-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Helene is starting to show signs of decay, with\nthe central convection decreasing since the previous advisory and\nthe low-level center becoming partly exposed in a region between\nconvective bands.  The initial intensity is held at 60 kt for this\nadvisory in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus, but\nit is possible this is generous.  The 34-kt wind radii in the\nsoutheastern quadrant were revised based on a partial ASCAT pass.\n\nHelene is moving toward colder water and into an area of strong\nshear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies.  This should\ncause the system to weaken and, as it merges with a frontal system,\nbecome an extratropical cyclone in about 36 h.  The global models\nforecast Helene to be absorbed into a large non-tropical low over\nthe far north Atlantic after it passes Ireland and the United\nKingdom, and thus the system is forecast to dissipate completely\nbetween 72-96 h.\n\nHelene has turned northeastward with the initial motion now 035/18.\nA faster motion toward the northeast should occur during the\nremainder of the cyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the\nwesterlies.  On the forecast track, Helene should pass near or over\nthe western Azores later today or tonight, and head toward Ireland\nand the United Kingdom late this weekend and early next week.\nThere are no significant changes to either the track guidance or the\nofficial forecast track since the last advisory.\n\nTropical storm conditions should spread over portions of the Azores\nduring the next several hours and continue through tonight.\n\nHelene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone\nwhen it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three\ndays.  Interests in those locations should consult products from\ntheir local meteorological service for information about potential\nimpacts from Helene.  Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be\nfound on the website of the UK Met Office at\nhttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and warnings for\nIreland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at\nhttps://www.met.ie/.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 38.8N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 40.8N  31.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 43.0N  27.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 45.5N  21.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/1200Z 49.0N  15.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/1200Z 59.0N   1.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nJoyce is feeling the effects of shear this morning.  The low-level\ncenter of the tropical storm has become exposed to the south of a\narea of deep convection.  ASCAT data indicate the the maximum winds\nhave dropped to 35-40 kt, and 40 kt is chosen as the initial wind\nspeed since the resolution of ASCAT is likely causing an\nundersampling of the small storm.\n\nThe environment isn't forecast to change much near Joyce during the\nnext day or so, with strong shear being offset by waters near 27C.\nThe NHC forecast is leveled off during that time, a bit lower than\nthe previous prediction mostly to account for the initial wind\nspeed.  Thereafter, while the shear is forecast to continue, the\nmid-level air should become drier near the center, and SSTs cool off\ngradually below 26C.  These conditions should cause Joyce to\nslowly weaken early next week, and dissipate in 3 days or so.  This\nis the solution provided by much of the guidance, and the NHC\nforecast follows suit.\n\nJoyce has accelerated overnight, now moving east-northeastward at\nabout 12 kt.  The storm remains embedded in the same trough as\nTropical Storm Helene and it should follow that tropical cyclone\neast-northeastward to northeastward at increasing forward speeds\nduring the next day or two.  Beyond that time, as Joyce becomes a\nshallow cyclone, it is forecast to turn southeastward due to\nlow-level flow around the eastern side of a building ridge over the\ncentral Atlantic Ocean.  No significant changes were made to the\nforecast, which lies on the southern side of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 32.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 32.9N  39.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 34.0N  35.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 34.5N  32.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 34.0N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 32.0N  25.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":66,"Date":"2018-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  66\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nFlorence's center has continued its slow...and I do mean s-l-o-w...\nwestward trek across eastern South Carolina, with little change in\nthe overall structure of the wind field both overland and over\nwater. NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radar data, surface\nobservations, and a 1527Z ASCAT pass indicate that Florence is\nstill producing a significant fetch of tropical storm force winds\nwithin and adjacent to the the two bands of convection that are\ncurrently located between the Cape Fear/Wilmington area and Bogue\nInlet, North Carolina. The ASCAT pass contained numerous 40-45 kt\nwind vectors, and the NOAA NOS observing site at Johnny Mercer Pier\nin Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, has been reporting sustained\nwinds of 38-41 kt and gusts to 46-48 kt during the past few hours\nduring the passage of light to moderate rain showers. Therefore, the\ninitial intensity is being maintained at a conservative 40 kt for\nthis advisory. The estimated central pressure of 997 mb is based on\nnearby surface observations across eastern South Carolina.\n\nThe initial motion remains 270/02 kt. The new 12Z model guidance\nremains in excellent agreement on a mid-level ridge currently to the\nnorthwest and north of Florence moving steadily eastward during the\nnext 48 hours, which will keep the broad cyclone moving slowly\nwestward to west-northwestward during that time. By 48 hours and\nbeyond, the ridge is forecast to continue to shift eastward to near\nthe northeast U.S. coast and weaken, which will allow Florence and\nits remnant circulation to move slowly northward into the\nmid-latitude westerlies by Tuesday. By days 3-5, the global models\ndiverge on where and how fast Florence's then extratropical\ncirculation moves. Due to the significant spread in the guidance,\nthe official forecast track lies close to the consensus model\nTCVA/TVCN and the previous advisory track forecast.\n\nFlorence's inner-core convection and wind field will steadily weaken\nthroughout the next 48 hours or so. However, the outer wind\nfield and an associated band of deep convection in the eastern\nsemicircle should continue to produce tropical-storm-force winds\nfor another 12 hours or so over water and near the coast, with\noccasional strong wind gusts occurring over land. The official\nintensity forecast is close to an average of the Decay-SHIPS and\nLGEM, and the IVCN consensus intensity model guidance through 72\nhours, and then follows a blend of the IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE\nconsensus models at 96 and 120 hours when the post-tropical cyclone\nmoves back over water and strengthens some due to baroclinic\nprocesses.\n\nAlthough coastal storm surge flooding will continue to subside\ntonight and Sunday, torrential rainfall will continue to be a\nserious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence.  More than two-\nand-a-half feet of rain has already fallen across portions of\nsoutheastern North Carolina, and more rain is still to come, which\nwill cause disastrous flooding that will spread farther inland\nthrough the weekend.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina\ninto west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through\nearly next week, as Florence moves slowly inland. In addition to the\nflash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in the\nhigher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across\nwestern North Carolina into southwest Virginia.\n\n2.  Water levels along the coast will gradually subside through\nSunday.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within\nthe tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions\nof South Carolina and North Carolina today.\n\n4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 33.6N  79.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  16/0600Z 33.9N  80.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  16/1800Z 35.1N  82.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  17/0600Z 37.0N  83.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  17/1800Z 38.8N  82.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  18/1800Z 41.4N  74.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  19/1800Z 43.3N  60.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/1800Z 47.0N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":34,"Date":"2018-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Helene is gradually decaying and transitioning\nto a shear pattern, with the low-level center occasionally visible\nthrough breaks in the cirrus overcast.  The initial intensity is\nreduced to 55 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS satellite\nconsensus.  Helene is moving toward colder water and into increasing\nshear associated with the mid-latitude westerlies.  This should\ncause continued weakening and, as Helene merges with a frontal\nsystem, extratropical transition in about 36 h.  The forecast will\ncontinue to call for Helene or its remnants to be absorbed into a\nlarge non-tropical low over the North Atlantic between 72-96 h, and\nthe latest global model guidance suggests this could happen earlier\nthan forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is now 050/19.  A mostly northeastward motion at\na faster forward speed should occur during the remainder of the\ncyclone's life as it becomes more embedded in the westerlies.  On\nthe forecast track, Helene should pass near or over the western\nAzores during the next several hours, and head toward Ireland and\nthe United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday.  There are again no\nsignificant changes to either the track guidance or the official\nforecast track since the last advisory.\n\nTropical storm conditions are spreading over portions of the Azores\nand should continue through tonight.\n\nHelene is also expected to be a storm-force post-tropical cyclone\nwhen it approaches Ireland and the United Kingdom in two to three\ndays.  Interests in those locations should consult products from\ntheir local meteorological service for information about potential\nimpacts from Helene.  Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be\nfound on the website of the UK Met Office at\nhttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and warnings for\nIreland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at\nhttps://www.met.ie/.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 40.2N  32.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 41.9N  29.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 44.4N  24.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 47.2N  17.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/1800Z 51.2N  11.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/1800Z 61.0N   1.0E   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nThe circulation of Joyce is elongated this afternoon, with the\ncenter partially exposed.  It has been interesting to watch deep\nconvection firing in the northeastern quadrant, kicking off new\nsmall swirls that rotate around the mean circulation.  A blend of\nthe Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB supports keeping the wind speed\n40 kt on this advisory.\n\nThere is no change to the intensity forecast reasoning.  The\nenvironment is predicted to be nearly steady-state around Joyce\nthrough Sunday, with strong shear being offset by waters near 27C.\nThereafter, as the hostile shear continues, the mid-level air should\nbecome drier near the center, and SSTs cool off below 26C.  These\nconditions should cause Joyce to slowly weaken early next week, and\ndissipate in 3 days or so.  This forecast is basically the same as\nthe previous one, but it isn't out of the realm of possibility the\ncyclone could open up into a trough before that time.\n\nJoyce continues to accelerate, now moving east-northeastward at\nabout 15 kt.  The storm remains embedded within the same trough as\nTropical Storm Helene, and Joyce should move east-northeastward\nduring the next day or so.  Beyond that time, as Joyce becomes a\nshallow cyclone, it is forecast to turn southeastward due to\nlow-level flow around the eastern side of a building ridge over the\ncentral Atlantic Ocean.  The track forecast is simply an update to\nthe previous one, and continues to be on the southern side of the\nguidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 33.1N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 34.1N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 34.8N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 34.8N  30.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 34.0N  28.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 31.5N  26.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":67,"Date":"2018-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Florence Discussion Number  67\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nFlorence's center continues to trudge slowly westward across South\nCarolina, but heavy rainbands are still streaming inland from the\nocean across extreme southeastern North Carolina.  The NOS station\nat the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach in the vicinity of\nthese rainbands is the lone observing station that has still been\nreporting sustained tropical-storm-force winds, and based on the\nmost recent observations, Florence's maximum winds are estimated to\nbe 35 kt.\n\nFlorence is expected to weaken to a tropical depression within the\nnext 6-12 hours, with the global model fields showing winds\ndecreasing below 35 kt near the coast very soon.  Continued\nweakening is anticipated while Florence moves farther inland, and\nit is likely to become a remnant low in about 36 hours when its\ncirculation becomes less defined.  Florence is then expected to\nbecome a strengthening extratropical low between days 3 and 5 when\nit exits the Northeast U.S. coast and moves out to sea.\n\nThe initial motion is still very slow toward the west, or 275/3 kt.\nA mid-level ridge across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes is\ncurrently blocking Florence from making much headway, but that\nfeature is expected to slide eastward to the western Atlantic\nduring the next 24 hours.  This should allow Florence to recurve\nand accelerate across the Ohio Valley and the northeastern U.S.\nduring the next 3 days, and then accelerate further toward the\neast-northeast over the Atlantic Ocean on days 4 and 5.  The new\nNHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one and\nis close to the various model consensus aids.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina\ninto west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through\nearly next week, as Florence moves slowly inland.  In addition to\nthe flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also possible in\nthe higher terrain of the southern and central Appalachians across\nwestern North Carolina into southwest Virginia.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast within\nthe tropical storm warning area and also well inland across portions\nof South Carolina and North Carolina overnight.\n\n3. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 33.7N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  16/1200Z 34.3N  81.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  17/0000Z 35.8N  83.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  17/1200Z 37.8N  83.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/0000Z 39.2N  81.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  19/0000Z 41.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  20/0000Z 43.0N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  21/0000Z 45.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":35,"Date":"2018-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Helene has continued to be disrupted by the\nhigh shear and cold waters.  The center is well displaced to the\nwest of the convection, and based on continuity plus the latest\nDvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set at 50 kt.  Helene is\nheading toward even colder waters and extremely high shear.  This\nshould cause the cyclone to become extratropical in 24 hours or\nsooner as indicated by the SHIPS guidance.  By 72 hours, the cyclone\nshould have been absorbed by a much larger low.\n\nHelene is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 22 kt.\nSince the cyclone is embedded in the westerlies, this general\ntrack should continue with an increase in forward speed until\ndissipation.  This is consistent with track models which are in\nexcellent agreement.  On the forecast track, Helene should head\ntoward Ireland and the United Kingdom Sunday night and Monday as a\nstrong extratropical cyclone. Interests in those locations should\nconsult products from their local meteorological service for\ninformation about potential impacts from Helene.  Local forecasts\nand warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met\nOffice at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.  Local forecasts and\nwarnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at\nhttps://www.met.ie/.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 41.2N  30.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 43.2N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 45.5N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  17/1200Z 49.0N  13.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  18/0000Z 53.5N   6.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 15 2018\n\nJoyce is a highly sheared cyclone with the low-level center well\nseparated from the convection.  Given the deterioration of the cloud\npattern, the initial intensity has been generously set at 35 kt.\nThe shear is expected to remain belligerently high and the ocean\nalong the forecast track is cooler. On this basis, the NHC forecast\ncalls for additional weakening, and then dissipation beyond 3 days\nif not sooner.\n\nJoyce continues to move eastward at about 15 kt embedded within the\nfast mid-latitude flow.  The system should decrease its forward\nspeed as it weakens and become a shallow cyclone.  It should\nthen turn east-southeast and even southward steered by the low-level\nflow.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 33.4N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 34.5N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 34.5N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 34.5N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 33.5N  27.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 31.0N  27.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Florence","Adv":68,"Date":"2018-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Florence Discussion Number  68\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018\n\nSurface observations indicate that there are no longer any\nsustained tropical-storm-force winds as the center of Florence has\nmoved farther inland over South Carolina.  Therefore, the system is\nbeing downgraded to a tropical depression at this time.  Maximum\nwinds are estimated to be 30 kt.  Continued gradual weakening is\nlikely, and the numerical guidance suggests that the cyclone\nwill be disorganized enough to become a remnant low in 36 hours or\nso.  In 72 hours, global models indicate that the system will\nbecome an extratropical cyclone, with some strengthening due to\nbaroclinic processes as it moves over the Atlantic in 3-5 days.\nThis scenario is very similar to that from the previous advisory.\n\nThe forward speed of Florence has increased somewhat early this\nmorning and the motion is now near 280/7 kt.  The high pressure\nsystem that has been blocking the forward progress of Florence is\npredicted to slide eastward and southeastward during the next day\nor so.  As a result, over the next couple of days, Florence is\nexpected to move northwestward, northward, and then\nnorth-northeastward around the periphery of the high.  Later in the\nforecast period, Florence should accelerate east-northeastward in\nthe mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar\nto the previous one and close to the dynamical model consensus.\n\nThis will be the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane\nCenter on Florence.  Future information on Florence can be found in\nPublic Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning\nat 11 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH,\nand on the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Life-threatening, catastrophic flash floods and prolonged\nsignificant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas\nand the southern to central Appalachians from western North Carolina\ninto west-central Virginia and far eastern West Virginia through\nearly this week, as Florence continues to move slowly inland.  In\naddition to the flash flood and flooding threat, landslides are also\npossible in the higher terrain of the southern and central\nAppalachians across western North Carolina into southwest Virginia.\n\n2. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East Coast,\nand the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this week,\nresulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 33.8N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  16/1800Z 34.7N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  17/0600Z 36.7N  83.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  17/1800Z 38.7N  82.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/0600Z 39.8N  79.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  19/0600Z 42.0N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  20/0600Z 43.5N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  21/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":36,"Date":"2018-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Helene Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018\n\nHelene's cloud pattern is certainly looking less and less like a\ntropical cyclone this morning.  Based on conventional satellite\nimagery and AMSU data, Helene is quickly undergoing an extratropical\ntransition, and this dynamic process is expected to be completed\nlater today, as the cyclone moves away from the Azores.  The\ninitial intensity is lowered to 45 kt, and is based primarily on\n2326 UTC ASCAT-A wind retrievals.  Cold (22C) sea surface\ntemperatures and strong westerly shear will continue to disrupt\nHelene's vertical structure and should cause the cyclone to\ncomplete the extratropical transition in 12 hours, or sooner.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 50/22 kt,\nwithin the ferocious mid-latitude westerlies.  The global models are\nin remarkably good agreement with Helene accelerating northeastward\nand becoming absorbed in a large baroclinic zone extending over\nnorthern United Kingdom in 72 hours, and the official forecast\nreflects this scenario.\n\nEarlier 2326 UTC METOP-A ASCAT scatterometer data indicated that the\n34 kt and 50 kt wind radii, particularly in NW and NE quadrants, had\ndecreased considerably.  Accordingly, an adjustment was made on this\nadvisory.\n\nInterests in those locations should consult products from their\nlocal meteorological service for information about potential impacts\nfrom Helene. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on\nthe website of the UK Met Office athttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.\nLocal forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website\nof Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 42.5N  28.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 44.5N  24.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  17/0600Z 47.4N  18.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  17/1800Z 50.8N  10.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  18/0600Z 55.1N   3.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Joyce Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018\n\nWhat's left of the Joyce's associated deep convection is now\ndisplaced about 80 miles to the north-northeast of the elongated\nsurface circulation.  There still may be some 35 kt winds in a\nsmall area of deep convection where the coldest cloud tops (-65C)\nare observed, therefore, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for\nthis advisory.\n\nThere is no change to the intensity forecast philosophy.  The\nsurrounding environment is forecast to remains quite unfavorable\nduring the next 24 hours, although the warm 27C oceanic temperatures\ncould slightly counteract the negative effects of the harsh vertical\nshear pattern.  Afterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures, a\nmore stable thermodynamic air mass, along with the stiff shear, is\nforecast to induce gradual weakening and, ultimately, dissipation in\n4 days.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 075/15\nkt.  The cyclone is embedded within the same mid-tropospheric\nsteering flow as Tropical Storm Helene, and Joyce should move\neast-northeastward to eastward today.  Through day 3, Joyce should\nturn southeastward to south-southwestward around the eastern\nperiphery of a subtropical ridge to its west as a vertically\nshallow system.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory, and is based on the better-performing consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 34.0N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 34.5N  33.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 34.6N  30.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 34.1N  27.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 32.9N  26.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 30.7N  28.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Helene","Adv":37,"Date":"2018-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Helene Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018\n\nHelene's cloud pattern has transformed into that of an\nextratropical cyclone, with a large area of cold cloud tops\nlocated well to the north and northwest of the center.  An ASCAT\npass that caught the eastern portion of the circulation revealed\nmaximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, therefore the initial wind speed\nremains 45 kt for this advisory.  The global models suggest that\nthe system will strengthen slightly today due to baroclinic\nprocesses, and this is reflected in the official forecast.\nWeakening is anticipated by late Monday, and the system is forecast\nto be absorbed by a larger low pressure to the northwest of the\nUnited Kingdom by Tuesday morning.\n\nThe cyclone is moving quickly northeastward or 055/25 kt.  Now that\nthe system is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a\nnortheastward motion with some additional increase in forward speed\nis expected over the next day or so.  The global models remain in\ngood agreement on the track of the post-tropical low, and the new\nofficial forecast is an update of the previous advisory.\n\nThis is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Interests in Ireland\nand the United Kingdom should consult products from their local\nmeteorological service for information about potential impacts from\nthe post-tropical cyclone.  Local forecasts and warnings for the UK\ncan be found on the website of the UK Met Office at\nhttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for\nIreland can be found on the website of Met Eireann\nat https://www.met.ie/.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 43.8N  25.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  17/0000Z 45.8N  21.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  17/1200Z 49.0N  14.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  18/0000Z 52.8N   6.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  18/1200Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018\n\nJoyce is barely a tropical cyclone at the moment.  The cloud\npattern consists of a low-level swirl with a small patch of deep\nconvection located about 80 n mi northeast of the center and another\npatch of weakening convection well removed from the center in the\nnortheast quadrant.  Visible satellite images and a partial ASCAT\npass indicate that the circulation of the cyclone has also become\nincreasingly elongated from northeast to southwest.  Based on the\nsystem's appearance and the satellite intensity estimates, the\ninitial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, making Joyce a tropical\ndepression.\n\nThe depression is moving east-northeastward at 16 kt within the\nmid-latitude westerlies, and this motion should continue through\ntonight.  After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to slow\ndown and turn southeastward and then southwestward as it is moves\nin the flow on the east side of a building low- to mid-level ridge.\nThe track models are in fairly good agreement, and little overall\nchange was made to the previous NHC forecast.\n\nJoyce is currently in a quite hostile environment of 30-40 kt of\nwest-southwesterly shear.  Even though SSTs are relatively warm,\nthe ongoing strong shear and nearby dry air should continue to cause\nthe cyclone to gradually weaken.  Although the NHC forecast shows\nJoyce hanging on as a tropical depression for a couple of more days,\nit is very possible that the system could degenerate into a trough\nor a remnant low at any time during that period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 34.7N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 34.9N  31.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 34.5N  28.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 33.6N  27.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 32.6N  26.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 30.4N  29.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018\n\nJoyce continues to hang on as a tropical depression.  The cloud\npattern consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches\nof deep convection that become sheared off in the northeast\nquadrant.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement\nwith an ASCAT pass from several hours ago that showed maximum winds\nin the 25-30 kt range.  Even though Joyce is over relatively warm\nwater, the current hostile atmospheric environment of 30-40 kt of\nwest-southwesterly shear and nearby dry air should cause Joyce to\ngradually weaken during the next few days.  Although remnant low\nstatus is not predicted to occur for 2-3 days, it is very possible\nthat Joyce could degenerate into a trough or a remnant low well\nbefore then.\n\nThe depression has turned to the east, with the latest initial\nmotion estimate being 090/15.  The weak and shallow system is\nexpected to move in the low- to mid-level flow during the next few\ndays.  This should cause the cyclone to slow down and turn\nsoutheastward on Monday, followed by a southward and then\nsouthwestward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday as the system moves\naround a building ridge over the northeastern Atlantic.  The track\nmodels are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were\nmade to the previous NHC forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 34.4N  32.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 34.2N  30.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 33.6N  28.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 32.4N  27.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 31.2N  27.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 29.4N  30.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 16 2018\n\nJoyce is managing to maintain tropical cyclone status despite very\nstrong westerly vertical wind shear.  The system still displays cold\ncloud tops, but only within the northeast quadrant and at least\n100 nm from the center.  The shear is being induced primarily by\n50-kt 200 mb winds.  Usually such strong vertical shear would\ncompletely decapitate a tropical cyclone.  However, systems in\nhigher latitudes and moving in the same direction as the shear\nvector tend to be somewhat more resilient to the detrimental\neffects of the shear.  Nonetheless, it is anticipated that Joyce\nwill soon succumb to the combination of high shear, cool waters,\nand dry mid-levels, and become a remnant low within 48 hours, if not\nsooner.  The official intensity forecast shows a gradual weakening,\nnearly the same as the previous advisory and based upon a blend of\nthe LGEM statistical scheme and the HWRF/HMON dynamical models.\n\nJoyce is moving toward the east at a quick 18-kt clip.  The system\nhas not been picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies and is\nexpected to be advected around the lower tropospheric Bermuda-Azores\nhigh. Joyce should slow its forward speed and turn toward the\nsoutheast (on Monday), the south (on Tuesday), and finally the\nsouthwest (on Wednesday) before dissipating in about four days.  The\ntrack forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model\nconsensus and is slightly farther east because of the quicker\neastward initial motion than previously observed.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 34.0N  30.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 33.7N  27.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 32.8N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 31.7N  26.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 30.5N  27.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  20/0000Z 28.9N  29.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018\n\nA few convective cells have redeveloped to the northeast of the\nestimated center, but this new convection is quickly being displaced\neastward by very strong vertical shear.  Global model guidance\nindicates that strong westerly or northwesterly shear should\npersist over Joyce for the next couple of days.  Thus, even though\nthe system is over marginally warm SSTs, the combination of strong\nshear and very dry air in the mid-levels should cause the cyclone\nto degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours.  It would not be\nsurprising, however, to see Joyce degenerate even sooner than that.\nThe official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and\nclose to the HWRF model guidance.\n\nThe circulation is a bit elongated, making the center somewhat\ndifficult to locate.  The initial motion is a rather uncertain\n090/15 kt.  There has not been much change to the track forecast\nreasoning.  Joyce is currently on the north side of a mid-level\nhigh pressure area.  Over the next couple of days, the cyclone\nshould turn southeastward, southward, and then southwestward\naround the eastern periphery of the high.  The NHC track forecast\nis in good agreement with the latest dynamical model consensus, and\nnot too different from the previous official forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 34.2N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 33.7N  27.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 32.6N  26.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 31.5N  26.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 30.5N  27.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  20/0600Z 29.0N  30.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 17 2018\n\nJoyce is gradually losing organization, with drier air entraining\ninto the circulation.  Visible satellite imagery this morning\nshows a few cloud swirls pivoting around a mean center with\nonly a small amount of deep convection displaced about 90 miles\nnortheast of the mean center. ASCAT scatterometer data indicate\nthat winds of 25 to 30 kt remain on the southwestern side of the\ncyclone. Based on these data, Joyce remains a 30-kt tropical\ndepression for this advisory. Dry air and strong vertical wind shear\nare expected to continue to weaken Joyce over the next few days, and\nthe cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 24\nhours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory and remains close to the model consensus. The only notable\nchange is that Joyce is now expected to become a remnant low a\nlittle faster than the previous advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is 105/07 kt. Joyce has slowed down this\nmorning as anticipated as it is now reaching the northeastern\nperiphery of a mid-level high pressure area. Over the next couple of\ndays, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward, southward, and\nthen southwestward around the eastern periphery of the high. The\nlastest track guidance is tightly clustered, with the NHC track\nforecast lying in the middle of the guidance envelope, and close to\nthe previous official forecast track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 34.0N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 33.5N  27.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 32.3N  26.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  19/0000Z 31.2N  27.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  19/1200Z 30.3N  28.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  20/1200Z 28.9N  31.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018\n\nTropical Depression Joyce has proven to be resilient. Visible\nsatellite imagery over the eastern Atlantic today showed a\nfairly prolonged burst of deep convection near and just east of the\ncenter. In the grand scheme of things, the circulation of Joyce is\nstill relatively dry and free of thunderstorms, but this batch of\nconvection causes us to maintain a 30-knot intensity at advisory\ntime.\n\nJoyce had turned decidedly to the southeast since 15Z, and\nthis fits in with the model guidance - all of which showed a very\nstrong track consensus that curves the system down away from the\nwesterlies, with the track eventually turning toward the southwest,\nsuppressed by a developing flat ridge around 35 degrees north.\nOver time, this track will put Joyce in an environment characterized\nby less shear, but also marginal sea surface temperatures and very\ndry mid-level air. This should cause deep convection to diminish,\nand gradually reduce Joyce's winds and structure to a post-tropical\nlow - noting that all the global models lose definition on this\nsystem just after 72 hours.\n\nThe lastest official track is near the consensus of the tightly\nclustered guidance, and represents no significant change since the\nprevious advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 33.7N  27.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 32.9N  26.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 31.8N  26.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  19/0600Z 30.8N  27.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  19/1800Z 30.1N  28.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  20/1800Z 28.7N  31.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Burke/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 17 2018\n\nJoyce remains a very resilient tropical cyclone. After an earlier\nburst of deep convection just east of the low-level center that has\nsince dissipated, a new convective burst has developed just north of\nthe center with a curved convective band trying to develop in the\neastern semicircle. All of this convective activity has been\noccurring despite westerly 850-200-mb vertical wind shear of near\n35 kt and in the presence of very dry mid-level air. The initial\nintensity is being maintained a 30 kt based on earlier 28-kt ASCAT\nwind data, and the fact that no significant change has occurred to\nJoyce's low-level appearance in satellite imagery.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 155/06 kt. Joyce is forecast to\nmove around the eastern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located\nacross the eastern Atlantic to the southwest and west of the\ncyclone. This large-scale steering feature is expected to gradually\nturn Joyce toward the south overnight and on Tuesday, and then force\nthe cyclone toward the southwest on Wednesday and Thursday. The new\nNHC track forecast is to the west of the previous advisory track,\nand lies near the middle of the guidance envelope close to a blend\nof the consensus models TVCA and HCCA.\n\nConvective development during the past 12 hours has been in large\npart due to the strong atmospheric instability created by very cold\n200-mb temperatures near -57 deg C overlaying relatively warm ocean\ntemperatures of 25.5 deg C. A contributing factor to the most recent\nconvective development appears to be enhanced uplift caused by an\napproaching shortwave trough noted in water vapor imagery between\n30W-35W longitude. The latter feature is forecast by most of the\nglobal models to cut off south of the Azores and become entangled\nwith Joyce's circulation over the next few days, resulting in a\nsharp decrease in the vertical wind shear and an increase in\natmospheric instability/CAPE by 48 h and beyond, which would aid\nconvective development and re-strengthening. For now, however, the\nnew intensity forecast continues the weakening trend of the previous\nadvisories due to an abundance of very dry mid-level air being\nentrained into the circulation, which is expected to shut down\nconvective development, causing Joyce to dissipate shortly after\n72 h. However, confidence in this forecast scenario is not very\nhigh, and some adjustments may be required to subsequent forecasts\nonce the 18/0000Z model guidance becomes available, especially since\nthe GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance maintains\nJoyce as a 30- to 35-kt tropical cyclone through the next 120 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 33.2N  27.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 32.4N  27.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 31.4N  27.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  19/1200Z 30.5N  28.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/0000Z 29.9N  29.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/0000Z 29.2N  33.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018\n\nThe latest convective burst associated with Joyce is weakening due\nto the effects of 35-40 kt of westerly vertical shear and very dry\nmid-level air.  Satellite intensity estimates have changed little\nsince the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 30\nkt.  The cyclone is expected to gradually weaken due to the ongoing\nshear and dry air entrainment, and the new intensity forecast again\ncalls for the system to become a remnant low in 12-24 h. Dissipation\nof the remnants is forecast in 72-96 h in agreement with the global\nmodel guidance.  As indicated in the previous discussion, there is\nan alternative scenario where interaction with an upper-level trough\nseen in water vapor imagery to the northwest of Joyce maintains\norganized convection longer than currently forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is now 165/5.  Joyce is forecast to move around\nthe eastern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located across the\neastern Atlantic, with the cyclone or its remnants turning\nsouthwestward during the next 36 h and westward by 72 h.  The new\nforecast track generally lies between the TVCA and HCCA consensus\nmodels.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 32.9N  27.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 32.0N  27.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 31.0N  28.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  19/1800Z 30.3N  29.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/0600Z 29.8N  31.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/0600Z 29.5N  34.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 18 2018\n\nEarlier in the morning, the low-level center of Joyce became\ndecoupled from a small area of deeper convection. However, another\nconvective burst has recently developed after 12Z closer to the\nlow-level center.  The initial intensity of Joyce was held at 30 kt\nbased on a recent ASCAT pass, which showed an area of 25-30 kt winds\non the north side of the circulation. The number of wind retrievals\nclose to 30 kt was rather limited, so Joyce's winds should decrease\nbelow 30 kt when it eventually loses deep convection.  The\ndepression is in an environment with strong westerly vertical wind\nshear (30-40 kt) and marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C),\nand thus the primary forecast question is when Joyce will succumb to\nthe relatively hostile environment, lose deep convection and become\na remnant low. The GFS and ECMWF models both show some deep\nconvection lingering into tomorrow before warming upper-level\ntemperatures and increasingly dry air aloft kill off any remaining\nconvection. Therefore, the 12-hour forecast point maintains tropical\ndepression status, and the 24-hour forecast point indicates a\npost-tropical system.\n\nThe initial motion of Joyce is now more southerly (185 degrees at 7\nkt), and it will begin to turn increasingly to the southwest and\nwest as the central Atlantic ridge builds to the north. The new\nforecast track is essentially an update of the previous one, which\nwas close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus models. Minor adjustments\nwere made in the first 24 hours to account for a slightly faster\nobserved motion to the south in the past 6-12 hours.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 31.6N  27.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 30.6N  27.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 29.9N  28.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/0000Z 29.4N  29.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/1200Z 29.0N  31.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Lamers/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Joyce Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018\n\nDeep convection has generally been on the wane during the past day\nor so near the center of Joyce, and it is getting very close to no\nlonger having organized deep convection.  With the decrease in\noverall organization, the initial wind speed is set to 25 kt.  An\nenvironment of strong westerly vertical wind shear (30-40 kt)\nand marginal sea surface temperatures (around 25C) should cause\nJoyce to become a remnant low by late tonight or early Wednesday.\nThis agrees well with the latest global model guidance, and the\ntiming of remnant low status has been moved up to 12 hours (or\nless).\n\nThe initial motion of Joyce continues to turn and is now south-\nsouthwestward (205 degrees at 6 kt).  The depression is forecast\nto turn increasingly to the southwest and west as the central\nAtlantic ridge builds to the north. Model guidance, except the HWRF,\nis tightly clustered, so the new forecast track is essentially an\nupdate of the previous one, closest to the HCCA consensus model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 30.9N  27.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 30.2N  28.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  19/1800Z 29.6N  29.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/0600Z 29.1N  30.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Campbell/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Joyce","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Joyce Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102018\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 18 2018\n\nDuring the past couple of days, Joyce had been producing patches of\ndeep convection that would quickly shear off due to strong westerly\nwinds aloft.  Each convective burst appeared weaker than the\nprevious one, and during the past 12-18 hours, the circulation has\nbeen nearly devoid of deep convection.  Therefore, Joyce no longer\nmeets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last\nadvisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The\ninitial wind speed is held at 25 kt, in agreement with a recent\nASCAT pass around 2200Z that showed maximum winds in the 20-25 kt\nrange. The remnant low is expected to gradually weaken and\nultimately dissipate in a couple of days due to dry and stable air,\ncool SSTs, and moderate to strong westerly shear.\n\nJoyce is moving south-southwestward at 7 kt on the east side of a\nlow- to mid-level ridge.  A turn to the southwest is expected on\nWednesday as the ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and\nthat motion should continue until the remnant low dissipates.  The\nNHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 30.4N  27.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  19/1200Z 29.9N  28.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  20/0000Z 29.4N  29.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/1200Z 28.9N  31.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP192018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n900 AM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018\n\nSatellite images show that an area of low pressure has developed\nover the Gulf of California overnight within an inverted trough.\nThis is also supported by 24-hour pressure falls of 3.7 mb at Loreto\njust west of its center at 1300 UTC. Microwave imagery shows\ncurved convective banding features to the east and north of the\ncenter, suggesting organized convection. Therefore the system\nis being declared a tropical depression with 25-kt maximum sustained\nwinds. Infrared imagery shows minimal vertical wind shear over the\nsystem, with a slight restriction to the outflow on its western\nside, which is confirmed by recent SHIPS output.  However, the\nsystem has only 12 hours or less over water, and it is expected to\nmove inland without significant strengthening.\n\nAn upper-level trough moving into the western United States is\nexpected to steer the depression north or north-northeast across the\nGulf of California into northwest Mexico tonight, which is well\nadvertised by the track guidance.  The depression is expected to\ndissipate in the 24-36 hour time frame due to steep terrain.\n\nThe main impact with the system is expected to be heavy rainfall,\nwith 5-10 inch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches\nleading to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the\ntrack of the depression.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 26.3N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 28.0N 110.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  20/1200Z 30.5N 109.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roth/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP192018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n300 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018\n\nSatellite imagery has been showing an impressive band of strong\nconvection around the eastern semicircle of the depression over the\nlast few hours as the center of circulation has edged a little\nfarther away from the Baja Peninsula. A timely 1650Z ASCAT showed\nsome 25 to 30 kt winds within the band of colder convective tops,\nand since that time there has been perhaps some slightly better\ndefined banding features. The initial intensity will be set at 30\nkt based on this information.\n\nThe forecast reasoning has changed little since the last advisory.\nThe depression will lift north over the next 6 hours and a landfall\nis expected over northwest Mexico within the next 12 hours as the\nsystem comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough\nmoving into the western United States. This will not afford much\ntime for the system to develop despite being over very warm SSTs and\nwithin a low-shear environment. The depression will rapidly\ndissipate early Thursday as it moves inland over the high terrain of\nthe Sierra-Madre Occidental.\n\nThe main hazard with the system will be heavy rainfall, with 5-10\ninch areal average amounts and local amounts to 15 inches leading to\nlife-threatening flash flooding and landslides near the track of the\ndepression. Moisture associated with the depression and eventually\nits remnants will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened\nrisk of flash flooding in the Southwest United States today through\nThursday, and in the southern Plains beginning Friday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 27.0N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 28.3N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Orrison/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP192018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018\n900 PM MDT Wed Sep 19 2018\n\nRecent microwave images and surface observations suggest that the\ncenter of the depression is very near the coast of northwestern\nMexico, just south-southeast of Guaymas.  However, much of the\nassociated convection is already inland over northwestern Mexico.\nThe initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt since the cloud tops are\nnot as cold as they were earlier today when an ASCAT pass showed\npeak winds in the 25-30 kt range, and much of the circulation is\nalready interacting with the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico.\nSince the center will be moving inland over the rugged terrain of\nnorthwestern Mexico very soon, additional weakening is forecast and\nthe depression is expected to on Thursday.\n\nThe main hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy\nrainfall.  Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated amounts\nup to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora and\nnorthern Sinaloa.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash\nflooding and mudslides. Moisture associated with the depression, and\nits remnants, will also lead to areas of heavy rain and a heightened\nrisk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States tonight and\nThursday, and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 27.3N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 28.5N 109.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP192018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Nineteen-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192018\n300 AM MDT Thu Sep 20 2018\n\nA pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that the\ncenter of the depression had moved inland over the Mexican state of\nSonora, with winds as high as 25 kt still occurring over the Gulf of\nCalifornia.  The associated deep convection has taken on a more\nlinear pattern as it has pushed farther inland across northwestern\nMexico, and it is unlikely that the system still has a closed\nsurface circulation over the rough terrain.  As such, the depression\nis deemed to have dissipated, and this is the last advisory on this\nsystem.  Winds over the Gulf of California should quickly diminish\nduring the next 6-12 hours.\n\nMoisture associated with the remnants of the depression will\ncontinue to pose a heavy rainfall and flooding threat over the next\ncouple of days.  Widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches and isolated\namounts up to 15 inches are forecast in the Mexican states of Sonora\nand northern Sinaloa.  These rains could cause life-threatening\nflash flooding and mudslides.  Heavy rains will also lead to a\nheightened risk of flash flooding in the southwestern United States\ntoday and in the southern Plains beginning on Friday.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\non this system.  For additional information please see High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttps://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.  For information\non the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding, please consult\nstatements from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 28.1N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 21 2018\n\nThe small, but well-defined, low pressure system located about 500\nmiles east of the Lesser Antilles has been producing steady\nconvection for the past several hours. Although this convection is\ndisplaced to the south and east of the exposed low-level center due\nto strong westerly wind shear, it has persisted long enough to meet\nthe NHC definition of a tropical cyclone. On this basis, advisories\nare being initiated on Tropical Depression Eleven.\n\nThe initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on ASCAT data from\nearlier today which showed a couple of 25-30 kt wind vectors in the\nnortheast quadrant of the circulation. The intensity guidance is in\nextremely good agreement that the depression is unlikely to\nstrengthen. All of the global models forecast an increase in\nupper-level winds over the small cyclone during the next 24 h. In\nfact, SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the 850-200 mb shear could\nexceed 30 kt by tomorrow morning, and will be near 40 kt within 48\nh. As a result of this shear and some dry air also in the vicinity,\nthe dynamical models unanimously forecast dissipation within 72 h,\nand most show that the depression will open into a trough of low\npressure sooner than that. The NHC forecast conservatively maintains\nthe tropical cyclone for 48 h, but it could weaken and dissipate\nsooner than currently indicated.\n\nThe depression has recently been moving almost due west, but a\nlonger-term motion yields an initial motion of 290/5 kt. A break in\nthe subtropical ridge to the north of the depression should result\nin fairly weak steering flow for the next day or two, and only a\nslow west-northwestward to westward motion is anticipated. All of\nthe typically-reliable track models are in fairly good agreement on\nthis scenario.  The NHC forecast is very close to HCCA at all\nforecast hours, and lies near the south edge of the tight guidance\nenvelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z 13.1N  53.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 13.5N  54.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 13.8N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 14.2N  56.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 14.5N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018\n\nDeep convection remains displaced to the east of the depression's\ncenter due to 30-40 kt of westerly shear.  Although Dvorak final-T\nnumbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased since yesterday--now a\nconsensus T1.0--the initial intensity is held, perhaps generously,\nat 30 kt.  Strong westerly shear is expected to persist for several\ndays, which at the very least will prevent the depression from\ngetting any better organized.  Since the global models show the\ndepression opening up into a trough in about 24 hours, the new NHC\nintensity forecast brings down the winds a little faster, shows the\nsystem becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, and dissipates the low\nentirely by 48 hours well east of the Windward Islands.  This\nevolution could certainly occur more quickly than indicated by the\nofficial forecast.\n\nThe center of the depression has not been moving much, and it's\npossible the sheared convection is trying to pull it back toward\nthe east.  However, the average motion over the past 12 hours is\nwestward, or 270/4 kt.  The track guidance insists that the\ndepression should move slowly west-northwestward over the next\ncouple of days, but given that the system has not made any\nnorthward progress, I elected to skirt the southern edge of the\nguidance envelope.  This new forecast is a little south of the\nprevious NHC track prediction.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z 13.0N  53.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 13.3N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 13.6N  55.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 13.8N  56.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018\n\nIt appears that the depression's best day is behind it, as the\ncloud pattern has become less organized this morning. The low-level\ncenter is becoming increasingly separated from the warming cloud\ntops in what remains of the deep convection, which is displaced to\nthe east by nearly 40 kt of west-southwesterly shear as analyzed by\nUW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,\nconsistent with a T1.0 classification from TAFB. Given that the\nstrong shear is expected to continue and the depression will be\nmoving through a relatively dry environment, the cyclone should\ngradually spin down and become a remnant low by 24 hours and\ndissipate by 48 hours. However, I would not be surprised if either\nor both of these occurred sooner.\n\nThe center of the depression hasn't moved much during the past few\nhours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 280/03. The\nweakening cyclone should be steered westward to west-northwestward\nby a low-level ridge. The new NHC track forecast is north of the\nprevious one but remains along the southern edge of the guidance\nenvelope given doubts about how much latitude such a shallow system\nwill gain prior to dissipation.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 13.2N  53.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 13.6N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 14.0N  55.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  24/0000Z 14.4N  56.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 22 2018\n\nThe area of low pressure located well south of the Cabo Verde\nIslands now has a well-defined center and enough organized deep\nconvection to be considered a tropical cyclone. The initial\nintensity is set to 35 kt based on data from recent ASCAT passes\nthat showed an area of 30-35 kt winds northwest of the center.\n\nKirk will be moving over SSTs around 27C for the next 36 hours or\nso with generally low shear, which should allow for some gradual\nstrengthening. After that time, the SSTs increase quickly along the\nforecast track, but the SHIPS model and global model fields show the\nvertical shear increasing, in part due to the very fast low-level\neasterly flow. In addition, the GFS and ECMWF global models don't\nshow much development of the cyclone during the forecast period. As\na result of these factors, little change in strength is forecast\nafter 48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the HCCA consensus aid\nthrough 48 hours and is near IVCN afterward.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/12, but has the usual uncertainty\nfor a system in the early stages of development. The cyclone is\nexpected to be steered very quickly westward at low latitudes with\nforward speeds reaching 20-25 kt over the next 72 hours to the south\nof a mid-level ridge. Late in the period, some gain in latitude and\na slight decrease in forward speed are shown as a weakness in the\nridge develops to the east of the Lesser Antilles. The initial NHC\ntrack forecast is close to HCCA and a little south of the TVCA\nconsensus, giving a little more weight to the GFS and ECMWF, which\nlie on the south side of the track guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z  8.3N  23.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z  8.8N  25.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z  9.3N  29.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z  9.4N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z  9.6N  38.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/1200Z 10.3N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  26/1200Z 11.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  27/1200Z 12.5N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018\n\nSince the last advisory was issued, deep convection decreased in\nassociation with the depression to the point that it was not\nclassifiable with the Dvorak technique at 18Z. However, there are a\ncouple of patches of thunderstorms that have developed recently,\nand if they persist they could help the system hold on to tropical\ncyclone status a bit longer. The low-level center remains exposed\nwith UW-CIMSS now analyzing nearly 45 kt of westerly shear over the\ncyclone. Gradual spin down is expected during the next 12 to 24\nhours, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by Sunday. Global\nmodel fields show the surface circulation dissipating by 36 hours\nand that is indicated in the official forecast.\n\nThe low-level center has been moving erratically today, with a\nrecent northward jog seen, but the long-term initial motion estimate\nis 305/03. The weakening cyclone should be steered west-\nnorthwestward by a weak low-level ridge through dissipation, and\nthe NHC track forecast has been nudged northward toward the latest\nmulti-model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 13.6N  53.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 13.9N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  23/1800Z 14.4N  56.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018\n\nThe convection associated with Kirk is currently disorganized, with\nthe majority of it in a cluster to the west of the center.  Most of\nthe subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are in\nthe 30-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe forecast track takes Kirk over SSTs around 27C for the next 36\nh or so with generally low shear, which appears favorable for\ngradual strengthening.  However, there is a possibility that\nentrainment of dry air from an area of African dust present to\nthe north of Kirk may allow less intensification than currently\nforecast. From 36-72 h, there is some divergence in the intensity\nguidance between the SHIPS and LGEM models, which forecast\nstrengthening into a hurricane, and the dynamical models, which\nforecast little additional strengthening.  The intensity forecast\nleans toward the dynamical models during that period.  After 72 h,\nKirk should encounter increasing westerly shear and gradually\nweaken.  The intensity forecast, which is unchanged from the\nprevious forecast, lies a little above the intensity consensus IVCN.\n\nThe initial motion is now 290/13.  The subtropical ridge to the\nnorth of the storm should steer Kirk quickly westward for the next\n72 h or so, with forward speeds reaching 20-25 kt.  Later in the\nforecast period, Kirk should turn west-northwestward with a\ndecrease in forward speed as it nears a developing weakness in the\nridge near and to the east of the Lesser Antilles.  The new\nforecast track, which is closest to the HCCA consensus model, is\nshifted a little to the north of the previous track.  However, it\ncontinues to lie on the south side of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z  8.6N  24.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z  9.1N  27.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z  9.5N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z  9.7N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z  9.8N  40.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 10.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 11.5N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 13.0N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018\n\nAlthough deep convection has increased since earlier today, it has\nbecome increasingly difficult to identify a well-defined center\nassociated with the depression. After moving erratically during the\nafternoon, the center of the depression appears to have become\ndisrupted by convection to its east, and it is unclear at this point\nif a closed surface circulation still exists. Since visible imagery\nis not currently available and recent ASCAT data from around 0000Z\nwas inconclusive, at least one more advisory will be issued under\nthe assumption that the depression has not quite yet dissipated.\n\nThe initial motion is highly uncertain, but it is assumed that the\nsystem is still moving generally northwestward, or 310/3 kt. No\nsubstantial changes were made to the NHC intensity or track\nforecasts. All available guidance indicates that the depression will\ncontinue to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward for the\nnext day or two while it gradually weakens due to continued strong\nwind shear. Given the recent increase in convection, it no longer\nseems likely that the system will become a remnant low prior to\ndissipating. Therefore, the NHC forecast now keeps the system as a\ntropical depression until dissipation occurs in 36 h, if not sooner.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 13.8N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 14.2N  55.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.5N  56.6W   20 KT  25 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 22 2018\n\nThe overall organization of Kirk has changed little since the\nprevious advisory.  The deep convection that was over the western\nportion of the circulation has continued to race westward ahead of\nthe low-level center while a new burst of convection has developed\ncloser to the center this evening.  A couple of ASCAT passes from\njust prior to 0000 UTC did not reveal any winds as strong as\nthis morning, but given the recent increase in convection near the\ncenter the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt, which could be\na little generous.\n\nRecent satellite fixes show that Kirk is moving west-northwestward\nor 285 degrees at 14 kt.  A narrow subtropical ridge that is\nforecast to build westward to the north of Kirk should steer the\ncyclone quickly westward during the next few days, with forward\nspeeds increasing to around 20-22 kt.  After that time, the global\nmodels predict that a weakness will develop in the ridge between\n50W and 60W which is forecast to cause Kirk to slow down and turn\nwest-northwestward.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little\nnorth of the previous advisory, primarily due to a slightly more\nnorthward initial position as noted in the ASCAT data.  Otherwise,\nthe track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is along\nthe southern edge of the guidance, closest to a blend of the GFS\nand ECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus.\n\nKirk is forecast to traverse warm waters and remain within a low\nshear environment during the next couple of days.  These conditions\nfavor strengthening, however as mentioned in the previous\ndiscussion, some dry air lurking just to the north of Kirk could\nget entrained into the circulation and limit intensification.\nThere is still large spread in the intensity guidance with the\nstatistical guidance showing much more intensification between 24\nand 72 h. After 72 hours, increasing westerly shear is expected to\ncause weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast remains near the HCCA\nand IVCN intensity guidance, and follows the trend of the ECMWF and\nGFS models that weaken Kirk later in the forecast period. Given the\nspread in the guidance, the intensity forecast is of low confidence.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z  9.0N  26.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z  9.4N  28.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z  9.9N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 10.1N  37.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 10.2N  41.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 10.6N  49.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 11.8N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  28/0000Z 13.3N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized.\nThe circulation is becoming increasingly elongated, and it seems\nlikely that a closed circulation may no longer exist.  However, we\nare maintaining advisories for now to wait for visible imagery to\nbetter assess the low-level circulation.  The depression continues\nto produce a few patches of deep convection, but these are confined\nto the east and northeast portions of the circulation due to about\n35 kt of westerly shear.  The initial intensity remains 25 kt based\non the earlier ASCAT data.\n\nThe system is moving into an environment of even stronger westerly\nwind shear.  These hostile winds and dry air should cause the\ndepression to dissipate, if it has not already, later today or\ntonight.  The depression, or its remnants, are expected to move\nslowly west-northwestward for another day or so.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 14.5N  55.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 15.0N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nRecent microwave data show that Kirk's center is located near the\neastern edge of the deep convection.  There are a few curved bands\ntrying to form, but overall the convective activity is oriented\nalong an east-west line extending west of the center.  Since Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB are T2.5, the initial intensity\nremains 35 kt.\n\nKirk has been accelerating since yesterday, and the current motion\nis westward, or 280 degrees, at 16 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging\nover the eastern Atlantic is expected to cause Kirk to move even\nfaster toward the west during the next couple of days, reaching\nspeeds of at least 22 kt in 24-36 hours.  A reduction in speed is\nlikely after 48 hours once Kirk moves south of a large central\nAtlantic trough, but it should still be moving along at a pretty\ngood clip.  The forecast thinking is the same as in previous\nadvisories, with the latest NHC track forecast still closely\nfollowing a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and HFIP Corrected Consensus\nmodel along the southern edge of the guidance envelope.  This new\nprediction is a little faster than what was indicated in the\nprevious advisory.\n\nKirk will be moving over increasingly warmer waters and through a\nrelatively low-shear environment for the next 2-3 days, which\nshould allow for some strengthening.  The biggest limiting factors\nfor intensification would be the cyclone's fast motion and possible\nentrainment of dry air.  Like every other tropical cyclone which\nhas approached the Lesser Antilles from the east this season, Kirk\nis expected to run into strong westerly shear in 4-5 days,\nresulting in weakening as the cyclone gets closer to the islands.\nThe NHC official forecast is still not as high as the\nstatistical-dynamical guidance and more closely follows the HCCA,\nFlorida State Superensemble, and intensity consensus, as well as\nthe trends in the GFS and ECMWF.  Based on those global models, it\nis possible that Kirk may open up into a trough as it is\napproaching the Lesser Antilles and moving into the eastern\nCaribbean Sea, but for now the official forecast maintains Kirk as\na tropical storm through day 5.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z  9.1N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z  9.5N  30.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 10.0N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 10.2N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 10.4N  43.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 10.9N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 12.0N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  28/0600Z 13.0N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Eleven","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Eleven Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nVisible images show that the depression has degenerated into a\ntrough of low pressure accompanied by a few showers.  This\ndisturbance is moving westward toward an even more hostile\nshear environment, and regeneration is not anticipated.\n\nThis is the last NHC advisory on this system.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 14.5N  56.0W   20 KT  25 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nKirk's cloud pattern has a figure 6 configuration, with most of the\ndeep convective bands over the western semicircle of the\ncirculation.  Microwave imagery indicates that the center is near\nthe eastern side of the main area of deep convection, as before.\nDvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB support keeping the\nintensity at 35 kt.  The storm will be moving over warmer waters\nwith fairly low shear for the next day or two, so some strengthening\nis anticipated in the short term.  Later in the forecast period,\nincreasing westerly shear should cause weakening. The official\nintensity forecast is similar to the model consensus through 48\nhours, and follows the trends shown by the ECMWF and GFS global\nguidance thereafter.  The latter models suggest that Kirk could open\nup into a trough when it nears the Caribbean.\n\nCenter fixes indicate that Kirk has been accelerating westward and\nthe initial motion estimate is now 280/18 kt.  A well-defined\nmid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should cause an even\nfaster westward motion over the next few days.  Near the end of the\nforecast period, a weakness in the ridge is likely to lead to a\nslowing of the forward speed.  The official forecast is a blend of\nthe latest simple and corrected model consensus forecast tracks and\nis also similar to the previous NHC track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z  9.3N  30.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z  9.8N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 10.2N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 10.5N  41.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 10.7N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 11.2N  52.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 12.3N  57.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  28/1200Z 13.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nThe development of a subtropical storm that NHC and the global\nmodels have been advertising for the past several days has\nmaterialized, and based on satellite intensity classification from\nTAFB and earlier ASCAT data, advisories on Subtropical Storm Leslie\nhave been initiated.\n\nLeslie is still embedded within an upper-level low and strong winds\nare removed from the center.  However, there is a chance as usual\nthat the subtropical cyclone could develop additional convection\nnear the center, and the transition to a tropical system during the\nnext day or so is not out of the question.  Global models do\nindicate that a new low is going to form north of Leslie, and that\nthe subtropical cyclone will become absorbed by the new larger low.\nThis is the scenario depicted by NHC at this time.\n\nLeslie is embedded within very light steering currents, and most\nlikely the cyclone will be meandering today and tomorrow.  After\nthat time, with the development of the new low to the north, Leslie\nwill likely move east until it becomes absorbed.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 33.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 33.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 33.0N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 33.0N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nDeep convection has diminished near the estimated center of Kirk,\nand the main thunderstorm activity is occurring over the\nnorthwestern and western peripheries of the circulation.  This has\nthe appearance of an arc cloud, suggesting that some drier mid-level\nair has been entrained into the tropical cyclone.  Since the system\nshould be moving over warmer waters and through low vertical shear\nfor the next day or so, some strengthening is anticipated into\nearly this weak.  Later in the forecast period, Kirk should be\nencountering increasing shear associated with strong upper-level\nwesterlies over the Caribbean, and this will likely cause\nweakening.  The official forecast is close to the latest Florida\nState University Superensemble prediction and is the same as the\nprevious NHC forecast.\n\nBased on the latest center fixes, the motion continues swiftly\ntoward the west, or about 280/20 kt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge\nto the north of Kirk should steer the tropical cyclone westward at\na fairly fast clip for the next couple of days.  By days 3-4, the\nridge weakens a bit and Kirk should slow its forward motion\nsomewhat.  The official track forecast has not changed much from\nthe previous advisory and is close to the latest corrected\nconsensus model, HCCA, prediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z  9.5N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z  9.9N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 10.2N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 10.4N  43.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 10.6N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 11.6N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 12.9N  58.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  28/1800Z 14.0N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nLeslie's cloud pattern has not become any better organized, nor do\nwe have any data to support a wind increase. The initial intensity\nis then kept at 35 kt.  The evolution of Leslie is very complex and\ndifficult to forecast. There is a possibility that Leslie will be\nabsorbed by a larger low that is forecast to form nearby, or that\nLeslie could maintain its identity while rotating around the low. At\nthis time NHC will maintain continuity and forecasts Leslie to be\nabsorbed by the large low by 72 hours. No significant change in\nintensity or structure is anticipated until then.\n\nLeslie continues to be embedded within very light steering currents,\nand most likely the cyclone will merely meander today and\ntomorrow. After that time, with the development of the new low to\nthe north, Leslie will likely be steered eastward until it is\nabsorbed. The track forecast is highly uncertain given the complex\nflow pattern surrounding the subtropical cyclone.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 33.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 33.4N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 33.2N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 33.2N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 33.0N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kirk","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nKirk is looking increasingly disheveled in satellite imagery. A pair\nof ASCAT passes between 2300 and 0000 UTC indicated that Kirk has\nlikely opened up into a trough of low pressure and no longer has a\nclosed surface circulation. However, no recent visible imagery or\nsurface observations are available to confirm this. Since the ASCAT\npasses showed a few 25-30 kt wind vectors on the north side of the\nalleged circulation, Kirk is being maintained as a 30 kt tropical\ndepression for now.\n\nThe ASCAT data showed almost no sign of the previous surface center\nof Kirk, so the initial position was shifted significantly to the\nwest, closer to the wave axis. As a result, the NHC track forecast\nhas also been shifted significantly westward (faster) at all\nforecast hours, especially from 12-72 h. Whether Kirk is a\ntropical wave, depression, or storm, it should continue moving\nrapidly westward for the next couple of days. By mid-week, the\nsystem will reach a break in the subtropical ridge which will result\nin a slower forward speed as it approaches and enters the Caribbean.\nThe NHC track forecast remains on the south side of the guidance\nenvelope, and is closest to the corrected consensus aid, HCCA.\n\nIt is likely that the fast forward speed is preventing Kirk from\nbecoming better organized and strengthening, and the global models\ndo not suggest that it will slow down substantially for the next\ncouple of days. While it is not explicitly reflected in the\nforecast, Kirk could dissipate into a tropical wave at any time, if\nit hasn't already. By the end of the forecast period, the slower\nmotion of Kirk could allow for some reorganization, however strong\nvertical wind shear over the Caribbean will likely prevent the\nsystem from significantly strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast\nhas been adjusted down, and is now essentially a blend of the global\nand regional dynamical model forecasts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z  9.4N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z  9.8N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 10.0N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 10.3N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 10.6N  50.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 11.7N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 13.0N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 14.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 23 2018\n\nThere has been little change in the organization of the subtropical\ncyclone over the past several hours.  Patches of deep convection\ncontinue to develop over the southeastern portion of the circulation\nbut there is a lack of convective banding elsewhere. The initial\nintensity remains 35 kt, which is based on a partial ASCAT pass that\ndetected 25-30 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the storm\nthis evening.  Leslie is not forecast to strengthen over the next\nday or so due to dry air and moderate vertical shear.  By 48 hours,\nsome increase in wind is predicted as Leslie interacts with an\napproaching baroclinic zone.\n\nLeslie jogged west-southwestward for a few hours this evening, but\nhas since turned southwestward and slowed down.  The system is\nforecast to move little over the next 24 hours, then begin a faster\neastward motion on Monday night and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough\nand associated cold front digs southeastward over the central\nAtlantic. The global models indicate that the front will overtake\nLeslie in about 48 hours, and the NHC forecast calls for the system\nto become an extratropical low at that time.  The evolution of the\nsystem becomes even more complex after that, as the GFS shows Leslie\nbeing absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure area to the north,\nwhile some of other global models maintain post-tropical Leslie as\nthe primary low pressure area.  For now, the NHC forecast maintains\ncontinuity with the previous advisories and calls for the system to\nmerge with the larger front/low by 72 h, but there is a high level\nof uncertainty in the exact evolution and structure of the system.\nRegardless of the details of the evolution, a large non-tropical\nlow pressure area with gale- to storm-force winds is expected to be\nover the east-central Atlantic later this week.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 33.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 33.1N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 33.1N  47.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 32.9N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  27/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kirk","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Kirk Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018\n\nAfter having a minimal amount of deep convection late yesterday,\nKirk is now producing some thunderstorm activity in fragmented bands\naround the estimated center.  However, earlier ASCAT data and low\ncloud motion suggest that the circulation resembles a sharp trough\ninstead of a closed low that is necessary for a tropical cyclone.\nHopefully more visible satellite images and additional scatterometer\ndata will help better assess the circulation and status of Kirk.\nFor now, advisories are being maintained on the system, and the\ninitial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data\nand a blend of the Dvorak estimates.\n\nKirk is moving very quickly to the west at about 21 kt, which is\nlikely the reason why the system has been struggling.  A continued\nwestward motion but at a decreasing forward speed is expected during\nthe next two to three days while the cyclone remains on the south\nside of a low- to mid-level ridge.  After that time, a large\ndeep-layer low pressure system over the central Atlantic should\ncause Kirk to gain more latitude.  The NHC track forecast is largely\nan update of the previous one, and remains near the southern side of\nthe guidance envelope near the GFS and ECMWF models.  This forecast\ntakes Kirk toward the Lesser Antilles in 3 to 4 days and interests\nthere should monitor the progress of this system.\n\nAlthough Kirk will be moving over warmer SSTs and remain in\nrelatively moist conditions, its fast forward speed will likely\nlimit the system from strengthening significantly during the next\nfew days, so only a little intensification is predicted.  The global\nmodels show a notable increase in westerly shear when Kirk reaches\nthe eastern Caribbean Sea in about 4 days, and that should cause\nweakening and possibly even dissipation by the end of the forecast\nperiod.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the lower side of the\nguidance envelope, in best agreement with the NOAA HCCA model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z  9.5N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z  9.9N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 10.2N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 10.5N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 10.9N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 12.1N  57.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  28/0600Z 13.2N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  29/0600Z 14.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018\n\nLeslie has changed little overnight.  The large subtropical cyclone\ncontinues to produce patches of deep convection, mostly to the south\nand east of the center.  The initial intensity is again held at 35\nkt, which is near the upper end of the satellite intensity\nestimates.\n\nThe subtropical storm is moving southward at 5 kt.  The steering\ncurrents around Leslie are expected to collapse later today and\nlittle overall motion is forecast during the next 12-18 hours.\nAfter that time, a cold front is expected to approach the system,\nand that should cause Leslie to move eastward tonight and Tuesday.\nThe front is expected to merge with Leslie by Tuesday night, causing\nit to become extratropical.  While little change in intensity is\nexpected during the next day or so, due to dry air and moderate\nshear, some strengthening as an extratropical low is likely due to\nbaroclinic forcing.  In fact, after becoming extratropical, the\nmodels show Leslie merging with another frontal low to its north,\nleading to the formation of a powerful slow-moving non-tropical low\nwith gale- or storm-force winds over the central Atlantic later this\nweek.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 32.6N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 32.6N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 32.6N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 32.5N  44.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 32.7N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  27/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Kirk","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Kirk Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018\n\nAnalysis of the directional ambiguities from a recent ASCAT\nscatterometer overpass indicated that the system lacks the closed\ncirculation that is a prerequisite for tropical cyclone status.\nTherefore, advisories are being discontinued at this time.  The\nASCAT data showed that the system is now a sharp trough accompanied\nby an area of gale-force winds that will be handled in High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service.  The remnants of\nKirk will be monitored during the next few days in case regeneration\ninto a tropical cyclone should occur.\n\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 10.0N  39.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 24 2018\n\nConventional satellite imagery shows little change in Leslie's\ncloud pattern during the past several hours with the exception of a\nfew new isolated thunderstorms developing near the surface center.\nAccordingly, the initial intensity for this advisory is kept at 35\nkt.  The statistical intensity guidance and the large-scale models\nshow Leslie commencing a strengthening trend in 24 hours as a\nmid-latitude baroclinic system digs southeastward toward the\ncyclone.  Some of the models also indicate that Leslie, after\ncompleting an extratropical transition in around 48 hours, will\ndeepen and generate a large area of gale force winds, particularly\nin the northwest quadrant.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects this\nscenario and is just below the IVCN intensity consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be an eastward drift, or 090/4 kt\nwithin the increasing mid-level westerly steering flow.  A turn to\nthe east-northeast is forecast as an approaching mid-latitude\ntrough and associated cold front approaches from the northwest over\nthe central Atlantic.  The deterministic guidance indicate that the\naforementioned baroclinic system will overtake Leslie near the 48\nhour period, and influence a transition to a non-tropical low\npressure system.  Subsequently, the GFS and the European models\nstill show extratropical Leslie as the primary system and deepening\nwith time.  For now, the official forecast will indicate a merging\nscenario, but succeeding advisories may include extratropical low\nforecast points through day 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 32.5N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 32.5N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 32.4N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 32.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 33.6N  39.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  27/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONT AND LARGER LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018\n\nLeslie's cloud pattern has become rather ragged and less organized\nthis afternoon.  Visible satellite imagery indicates that the\nsurface circulation has become elongated, from north to south, with\nmultiple cloud swirls rotating within the larger gyre.  The initial\nintensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory and could be generous,\nbased on the earlier partial ASCAT-A wind retrievals.  The\nintensity forecast philosophy remains the same.  Leslie is expected\nto interact with the incoming baroclinic zone approaching from the\nnorthwest and begin intensifying as it completes a\npost-tropical/extratropical transition by mid period.  The official\nforecast is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus\nthrough 36 hours, and a blend of the global models after Leslie\nbecomes an extratropical low.\n\nBased on a centroid position of the aforementioned multiple surface\nswirls, Leslie continues to move in an eastward fashion, or 090/6\nkt.  Leslie should turn toward the east-northeast in 36 hours in\nresponse to an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated cold\nfront from the northwest over the central Atlantic.  The large-scale\nmodels are in good agreement with Leslie completing an extratropical\ntransition at that time.  Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone is\nforecast to become cut off from the mid- to upper-tropospheric\nwesterly steering flow and move cyclonically toward the end of the\nweek between the building Bermuda high to the west and mid-level\nridging over the east Atlantic.  The NHC forecast now shows Leslie\nas a strengthening extratropical low through day 5, in agreement\nwith GFS, Canadian, and European models.  Subsequently, the wind\nradii forecast has also been adjusted based on a compromise of the\naforementioned large-scale models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 33.0N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 32.9N  46.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 32.6N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 33.4N  41.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  26/1800Z 35.4N  39.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  27/1800Z 36.9N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  28/1800Z 36.7N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  29/1800Z 36.2N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Leslie","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018\n\nLeslie's appearance in satellite imagery hasn't changed much this\nevening. Deep convection is mainly occuring in bands well displaced\nto the southeast of the cyclone's center, and recent ASCAT data\nindicated that the maximum winds have decreased to near 30 kt, with\nthe highest wind occuring in those bands.\n\nAll indications are that Leslie will undergo a complicated\ntransition over the next several days. Little change is expected\nwith Leslie until it becomes post-tropical in about 24 hours. After\nthat time, all of the global models suggest that Leslie will quickly\nstrengthen as a result of substantial baroclinic forcing, likely\nreaching a peak intensity sometime between 48 and 72 h. At the same\ntime, the cyclone will likely undergo a classic transition from\nfrontal low to warm seclusion while the wind field rapidly expands,\nwith 34-kt (gale-force) winds reaching several hundred miles from\nthe cyclone's center. By 96 h, the models indicate that Leslie will\nonce again become cut-off from the mid-latitude flow, and could\nbegin to re-acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. While\neach of the global models handles the exact details of this complex\nevolution a little differently, confidence is increasing that Leslie\nwill become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the central\nAtlantic over the next few of days. The NHC intensity forecast has\nbeen increased between 36 and 96 h, and is near a average of the\nglobal and regional dynamical model tracker output.\n\nThe depression is currently moving slowly eastward with an initial\nmotion of 090/3 kt. The guidance is in good agreement that Leslie\nwill accelerate eastward as it becomes more embedded within an\napproaching frontal zone. A northward turn is expected by mid-week,\nfollowed by a bend back toward the west by the end of the week as\nLeslie strengthens, occludes, and eventually cuts off from the\nmid-latitude flow to the north. The NHC track forecast has not been\nsignificantly changed, and is near the GFEX and HCCA consensus aids\nat most forecast hours. However, it should be noted that spread in\nthe guidance is high, especially by the end of the forecast period,\nso confidence in the track forecast at that time is low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 33.1N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 32.9N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  26/1200Z 34.5N  41.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  27/0000Z 36.2N  40.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  28/0000Z 36.9N  43.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  29/0000Z 36.5N  47.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  30/0000Z 36.5N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Leslie","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Depression Leslie Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018\n\nNo significant changes have occurred with Leslie overnight.  Deep\nconvection is generally confined to the eastern half of the\ncirculation as dry air continues to wrap into the western portion\nof the cyclone.  Satellite images indicate that the circulation has\nbecome stretched from north to south, likely due to the approach of\na cold front that is currently located a few hundred miles to the\nnorthwest of Leslie.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based\non the earlier ASCAT data.\n\nThe cold front is expected to merge with Leslie by tonight, causing\nextratropical transition.  While transitioning, Leslie is forecast\nto strengthen for a couple of days due to significant baroclinic\nforcing, and the NHC intensity forecast takes the peak winds just\nbelow hurricane force at 36 and 48 hours.  Later in the week, the\nextratropical system is expected to cut off and gradually lose its\nfrontal features.  Although this will likely cause some weakening,\nit should also allow the system to regain subtropical\ncharacteristics.  The NHC intensity forecast is fairly similar to\nthe previous one and near the IVCN consensus model.  This forecast\nis also in fairly good agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models,\nwhich are usually reliable intensity models for large subtropical\nsystems like Leslie.  Based on the latest guidance, Leslie is now\nexpected to transition back to a subtropical cyclone in 96 hours.\n\nLeslie has jogged to the southeast during the past several hours,\nbut an eastward to northeastward motion is expected during the next\nday or so as Leslie makes its extratropical transition.  After that\ntime, a turn to the north is expected followed by a slow westward\nmotion when Leslie cuts off from the mid-latitude flow. The models\nare in fairly good agreement on this looping motion, and the NHC\ntrack forecast follows the various consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 31.9N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 32.1N  44.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 32.7N  41.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  26/1800Z 34.5N  40.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  27/0600Z 36.1N  41.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  28/0600Z 36.0N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  29/0600Z 35.3N  48.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n120H  30/0600Z 35.0N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n300 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018\n\nThe low pressure system that NHC has been monitoring off the coast\nof southwestern Mexico has now become a tropical depression, the\ntwentieth of the eastern North Pacific 2018 season.  ASCAT data from\naround 0400 UTC indicated that the system had a well-defined center\nand maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range.  In addition, satellite\nimages show deep convection increasing in coverage and intensity\nnear the center.  The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, based on\nthe ASCAT data, but this is a little below the latest Dvorak\nestimate from TAFB.\n\nSince the depression has only recently formed, the initial motion\nis an uncertain 280/7 kt.  Mid-level ridging to the north of the\nsystem should keep the depression on a westward to west-\nnorthwestward path at about the same forward speed for the\nnext few days.  Thereafter, the models show the ridge breaking down\ndue to a large cut off deep-layer low moving toward the west coast\nof the United States.  In response, the cyclone is expected to turn\nto the northwest this weekend.  The models agree on this overall\nscenario, but there is a fair amount of spread by the end of the\nforecast period.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of\nthe guidance envelope and close to the best performing models, the\nconsensus aids.\n\nThe environmental conditions appear favorable for the depression to\nstrengthen.  SSTs are expected to remain quite warm beneath the\ncyclone for the next several days while vertical wind shear values\nare around 10 kt or less.  These conditions combined with a\nmoist airmass should allow for at least steady strengthening during\nthe next 3 to 4 days.  Some weakening is possible by the end of the\nforecast period due to slightly cooler SSTs and an increase in\nshear.  The NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of\nstrengthening than the guidance, since the system is still\nin the developing stage, but predicts peak winds near the IVCN\nconsensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 14.5N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 14.9N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 15.5N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 15.8N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  28/0600Z 16.9N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  29/0600Z 18.3N 118.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  30/0600Z 20.7N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Leslie","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 25 2018\n\nLeslie has become a post-tropical cyclone.  Conventional and\nmicrowave satellite imagery show that Leslie's surface circulation\nhas become elongated along an intruding baroclinic zone indicated\nby a recent 1158 UTC ASCAT-A pass.  Any deep convection appears to\nbe developing due to dynamic forcing.  A rather large stratocumulus\ncloud shield and associated cooler, stable air is quickly advecting\ninto the area as well. The initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt\nfor this last advisory.\n\nLeslie is forecast to strengthen during the next couple of days due\nto baroclinic processes. The official forecast, based on the GFS and\nEuropean global models, and the SHIPS statistical intensity\nguidance, shows an increase of the sustained winds to hurricane\nforce in 2 days, around the same period that the shear drops below\n10 kt.  The non-tropical low is then forecast to move south of the\nstrong upper-level westerlies and detach from the frontal boundary.\nAccording to the global models and the Florida State Cyclone Phase\nforecast, Leslie should make a transition from a frontal system to\nan asymmetric shallow warm-core seclusion.  Beyond day 3, guidance\nsuggests that Leslie will acquire subtropical characteristics and a\nmore symmetric, deepening warm-core low while meandering in weaker\nsteering currents.  The intensity forecast follows this scenario and\nis based on the aforementioned global and statistical models.\n\nLeslie is now moving eastward at a slightly faster forward motion,\nabout 10 kt.  A turn to the north is expected in 36 hours followed\nby a slower westward motion as Leslie slips south of the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  Through the remaining portion of the\nforecast, Leslie should move at a slower speed generally westward\nas a ridge builds to the north. NHC forecast is nudged toward the\nTVCN consensus through 48 hours, then follows more closely to the\nGFEX (GFS/ECMWF) consensus model.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\nLeslie.  Additional information on this system can be found in High\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\nat https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 31.6N  44.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  26/0000Z 32.1N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  26/1200Z 33.6N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  27/0000Z 35.6N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  27/1200Z 36.1N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  28/1200Z 35.5N  45.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n 96H  29/1200Z 34.6N  48.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n120H  30/1200Z 34.4N  49.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n900 AM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become better\norganized, with developing convective banding features.  Dvorak\nintensity estimates are 35 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB,\nrespectively, and the current intensity estimate is set at 40 kt.\nThus the system is being upgraded to a tropical storm.  Conditions\nfavor continued strengthening, with Rosa likely to remain in an\nenvironment of warm waters, low shear, and a very moist mid-level\nair mass for the next several days.  The official intensity\nforecast is a little higher than the previous one, but below some of\nthe objective guidance.  By late in the forecast period, a gradual\nweakening trend should commence as the system begins to move over\nslightly cooler waters.\n\nThe storm is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt.  A mid-level\nridge is forecast by the global models to remain in place to the\nnorth of Rosa through the middle part of the forecast period.  This\nwould likely maintain a generally west-northwestward motion for the\nnext 72 hours or so.  By days 4-5, the ridge is predicted to weaken\nwhich should result in a gradual turn toward the northwest and\nnorth-northwest.  The official track forecast is similar to that\nfrom the previous advisory and is close to the corrected dynamical\nmodel consensus, HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 14.7N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 15.2N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 16.4N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 17.1N 116.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  29/1200Z 18.8N 118.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  30/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018\n\nRosa has become better organized this afternoon.  An earlier 1601\nUTC GMI microwave image showed impressive banding features in the\nsouth semicircle with a banding eye type feature wrapping three\nquarters around the center of circulation.  A blend of the Dvorak\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of\n45 kt for this advisory.\n\nAlthough there is some modest northeasterly shear impinging in the\nnortheast side of the cyclone, the SHIPS intensity guidance\nindicate that this shear will diminish in 12 hours.  Subsequently,\nthe SHIPS RI index and the DTOPS model indicate a relatively high\nprobability of rapid intensification in 24 hours.  Accordingly, the\nNHC forecast calls for Rosa to become a hurricane in 12 hours based\non these data.  Further strengthening through the 72 hour period is\nexpected and is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus.\nBeyond day 3, gradual weakening is expected due to increasing shear\nand slightly cooler waters.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290 at\n8 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the\nnext 3 days south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern\nMexico westward over the eastern Pacific. In response to a\nmid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, Rosa should turn\ntowards the northwest to north over the weekend.  It is worth noting\nthat there is considerable along and cross-track spread in the track\nguidance beyond day 3.  Therefore, the official track forecast\nfollows the TVCN consensus, which lies in between the left and right\nglobal model outlier clusters.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.0N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Ramos/Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n900 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Rosa is still strengthening. The\ntropical storm has impressive banding features that wrap\ncyclonically from the northwest to northeast quadrant, though a dry\nslot has recently been observed infringing on the storm's developing\ninner-core. The most recent Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and\nSAB are 55 kt, so the initial intensity has been raised to that\nvalue.\n\nAll of the intensity guidance suggests that rapid intensification\n(RI) is either already underway or imminent. SSMIS imagery from\naround 2300 UTC appeared to confirm the onset of RI with the\ndevelopment of a small low-level eye-like feature that has been\nassociated with rapid intensification in past tropical cyclones.\nAlthough more recent imagery indicates this feature may have been\ndisrupted by the aforementioned dry slot, the models suggest that\nthis disruption may not last long. The NHC forecast therefore\ncontinues to show RI, and now calls for Rosa to become a major\nhurricane in about 36 h. Beyond that time, the hurricane is expected\nto remain in a fairly favorable environment through Friday, however,\neyewall replacement cycles could limit the extent to which Rosa\nintensifies once it nears major hurricane strength. By the weekend,\ncooler SSTs and a drier surrounding environment should cause Rosa to\nbegin weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\nprevious advisory, and is generally close to HCCA, especially beyond\n48 h.\n\nRosa is moving steadily west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt.  A mid-\nlevel ridge to the north of Rosa should keep the cyclone on the\nsame general heading for the next several days.  There is still some\nlarge discrepancies between the global models on the strength of the\nridge for the next few days, resulting in differences in the forward\nspeed of Rosa during that time. By the end of the week, a large\nmid-latitude trough is expected to create a weakness in the ridge,\nallowing Rosa to turn northwestward, and possibly northward. The NHC\ntrack forecast will continue to follow the TVCE and HCCA consensus\naids for this advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 15.1N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 15.5N 110.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 16.3N 114.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 16.6N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 17.8N 119.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 20.0N 120.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nInfrared satellite imagery during the past several hours indicates\nthat deep convection has increased and become better organized near\nthe center of the remnants of Kirk. In addition, two earlier ASCAT\nscatterometer passes between 0000-0100Z indicated that the low-level\ncenter had become a little better defined, and that the inner-core\nwind field had contracted, now with a radius of maximum winds (RMW)\nof about 40 nmi. Given the continued increase in the amount and\norganization of the deep convection, advisories have be re-initiated\non Tropical Storm Kirk. The two ASCAT passes showed peak winds of 38\nand 44 kt, so the initial intensity will be a blend of these two\nvalues or 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will\nbe investigating Kirk later this morning to provide more detailed\ninformation on the location and intensity of the tropical storm.\n\nThe initial motion estimates is an uncertain 280/16 kt, due to the\nlack of a well-defined center to track for the past two days. The\nglobal and regional models, excluding the HWRF model, are in very\ngood agreement on Kirk moving between west and west-northwest for\nthe next 72 hours along the south side of a strong Bermuda-Azores\nhigh pressure system anchored across most of the subtropical\nAtlantic. After that time, strong shear is forecast to weaken Kirk\ninto a remnant low, resulting in a more westward motion as the\nshallow cyclone will be steered by the low-level easterly trade wind\nflow. The official forecast track closely follows the HCCA\ncorrected-consensus model, and is a little south of the simple\nconsensus model TVCA due to an apparent northward bias in the HWRF\nmember.\n\nThe current modest west to southwesterly vertical wind shear is\nforecast to decrease to less than 10 kt during the next 24 hours,\nwhich should allow for some slight strengthening to occur. After 48\nhours when Kirk is forecast to emerge over the eastern Caribbean\nSea, the shear is expected to increase to more then 30 kt, which\nshould act to displace the deep convection to the east of the\nlow-level center, resulting in rapid weakening. Kirk is forecast to\ndegenerate into a remnant low pressure system after 72 hours, but\nthis could occur a little sooner than indicated in the official\nforecast if Kirk moves farther north and into even stronger shear\nconditions. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of\nthe HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 11.8N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 12.4N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 13.2N  57.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 14.1N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 14.8N  62.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 15.7N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 15.9N  71.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z 16.0N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n300 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nAfter steadily intensifying yesterday, Rosa's strengthening trend\nhas temporarily paused.  The tropical storm has a well-defined\ncurved band that wraps about three-quarters of the way around the\ncenter.  However, some dry air appears to be intruding into the core\nfrom the northeastern quadrant, which could be the reason why Rosa\nhas stopped strengthening for now.  The Dvorak classifications from\nTAFB and SAB remain 3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held at\nthat value.  This wind speed is also close to the latest SATCON\nestimate from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\n\nA strengthening trend is expected to resume soon, and it seems\nlikely that Rosa will rapidly intensify during the next couple of\ndays while it remains over warm SSTs and in an environment of low\nwind shear of 10 kt or less.  The NHC intensity forecast closely\nfollows the HCCA model, and brings Rosa to hurricane strength later\ntoday and major hurricane strength on Thursday.  Beyond a few days,\nsteady weakening is forecast due to cooler SSTs, dry and stable air,\nand an increase in southwesterly wind shear.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt, steered by\na mid-level ridge to its north.  A west to west-northwest motion at\nabout the same forward speed is expected for the next couple of days\nas the pattern holds.  After that time, the ridge is expected to\nbreak down as a large, deep-layer low moves toward the U.S. west\ncoast.  This change in the steering flow should cause Rosa to move\nnorthwestward late Friday and Saturday and then northward late in\nthe weekend.  The models have come into a little better agreement\nthis cycle, and a slight eastward shift has been made at 96- and\n120-hours based on this guidance.  This forecast lies fairly close\nto the various consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 15.5N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 16.2N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 16.8N 116.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 18.3N 119.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 20.7N 120.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  01/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nKirk is maintaining a CDO of strong convection over its center, but\nbanding features are limited.  Observations from an Air Force\nReserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft along with scatterometer\ndata indicate that the storm has strengthened a little and the\nmaximum winds are now near 45 kt.  The SHIPS model output shows a\nlarge increase in westerly shear over Kirk within 18-24 hours.\nTherefore not much additional strengthening is likely, and a\nweakening trend should commence in a day or so.  The official\nintensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus.\nStrong westerly shear is likely to continue to adversely affect Kirk\nwhile it moves over the Caribbean, and the system should weaken into\na depression within 72 hours or sooner, and become a remnant low\nlater in the forecast period.\n\nThe motion is a little north of due west, or 280/16 kt.  The\nsteering pattern for Kirk is rather straightforward.  A\nsubtropical high pressure area over the southwestern North Atlantic\nis expected to persist and retrograde slightly westward over the\nforecast period.  The flow on the southern side of the high should\nsteer Kirk on a westward to west-northwestward track for the next\nseveral days.  The official track forecast is close to the\ncorrected dynamical model consensus, HCCA, and is very similar to\nthe previous NHC track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 12.1N  54.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 12.7N  56.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 13.7N  58.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 14.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 15.2N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 16.0N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 16.0N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1200Z 16.0N  76.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n900 AM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nRosa is undergoing rapid intensification.  Rosa's inner core has\nquickly consolidated, indicated by a 1134 UTC SSMI/S image that\nshowed a solid mid-level ring with a strong well-developed banding\nfeature in the south semicircle.  The lower frequency image from\nthe pass indicated a small break in the north portion, probably due\nto the drier air and northeasterly shear that had been inhibiting\nthe cyclone's cloud pattern last night.  Based on the conventional\nand microwave imagery presentation, the initial intensity is raised\nto 65 kt.\n\nRosa should continue on this fast strengthening trend during the\nnext 12 hours or so.  Afterward, further intensification, at a\nslower pace, is expected during the next couple of days.  Through\nthe remaining portion of the forecast, gradual weakening is expected\nas a result of decreasing sea surface temperatures, increasing\nsouthwesterly vertical shear, and an invading stable, more drier,\nmarine layer air mass.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/9\nkt, within the easterly mid-tropospheric flow produced by a\nridge to the north of the hurricane.  Around mid-period, the\nlarge-scale models show a weakness developing the in the\naforementioned ridge in response to a mid-latitude trough\napproaching the southwest U.S. and Baja California peninsula.  As a\nresult of this synoptic pattern change, Rose should move\nnorthwestward Saturday and then north-northwestward Sunday.  The\nlarge along and cross-track spread recognized in the guidance 24\nhours ago has decreased significantly, increasing the forecast\nconfidence some beyond 48 hours.  The NHC forecast is fairly close\nto the previous one, and is based primarily on the multi-model\nconsensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 16.1N 111.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.4N 112.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 16.6N 114.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 16.8N 116.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 17.3N 117.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 19.2N 119.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 22.0N 120.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  01/1200Z 24.9N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nThe storm's cloud pattern now has a more comma-shaped appearance,\nwith the estimated center near the western edge of the comma head.\nSome low-cloud lines are becoming exposed over the western portion\nof the circulation, which is suggestive of some increase in\nvertical shear.  Based on flight-level and uncontaminated SFMR winds\nfrom the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission a few hours ago, the\nintensity is kept at 50 kt for this advisory.  The dynamical\nguidance is in good agreement that the shear will increase\nsignificantly in 18 to 24 hours, and a weakening trend is likely to\ncommence around that time.  The system is predicted to dissipate\ndue to the strong shear over the Caribbean Sea in about 5 days, and\nseveral of the reliable global models show this occurring even\nsooner.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the latest\nmulti-model consensus, IVCN, which has been a good performer in the\nAtlantic basin so far this year.\n\nKirk is moving west-northwestward, or 285/16 kt.  A pronounced\nmid-level ridge over the southwestern North Atlantic and Florida\nshould continue to steer Kirk on a west-northwestward to westward\nheading through the forecast period.  Based on the latest track\nmodel guidance, the official forecast is somewhat faster than the\nprevious one and now takes Kirk over the Lesser Antilles in about\n24 hours.  On this basis, the arrival of tropical-storm-force winds\nin the warning area is a few hours earlier than implied by the\nprevious advisory.  For specific timing information, please consult\nthe latest arrival time of tropical-storm-force winds graphic on the\nNational Hurricane Center website.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 12.7N  55.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 13.5N  57.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 14.4N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 15.1N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 15.7N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 16.3N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 15.7N  74.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n300 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nRosa continues to strengthen this afternoon. Improved deep\nconvective banding features with -83C cloud tops are evident in both\nvisible and microwave images, particularly in the east semicircle.\nThe initial intensity is bumped up to 70 kt and is a compromise of\nthe subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.\n\nIt still appears likely that Rosa will continue to quickly\nstrengthen through this evening while it moves over warm oceanic\ntemperatures and in a high moisture and low shear atmospheric\nenvironment.  The official forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN\nand NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models, and shows strengthening,\nat a slower pace, after the RI period.  Beyond 48 hours, steady\nweakening is forecast due to decreasing sea surface temperatures,\nincreasing southwesterly shear, and a high statically stable\nsurrounding environment.\n\nRosa is currently moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, within the\nmid-level easterly steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge\nextending from northern Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific.\nAt around day 3, Rosa is expect to move northwestward and then\nnorthward day 4 in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching\nfrom the northwest.  The along track spread beyond day 3 continues\nto be an issue with the GFS global and HWRF hurricane model\nindicating a much more faster north to north-northeast motion\nthan the slower European model cluster.  In this scenario,\nthe NHC forecast will remain near the better performing various\nmulti-model consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.5N 112.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 16.9N 115.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 17.2N 116.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 17.8N 117.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 20.1N 119.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 23.3N 119.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  01/1800Z 26.6N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nStrengthening vertical shear is beginning to take its toll on Kirk,\nwith the low-level center displaced to the west of the deep\nconvection.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found\nthat the central pressure has risen to 1002 mb, with maximum 850 mb\nflight-level winds of 56 kt and believable SFMR winds as high as 44\nkt.  Based on these wind data, Kirk's initial intensity is lowered\nto 45 kt.  Vertical shear is forecast to increase further, reaching\nover 30 kt in about 24 hours, which should cause Kirk to continue\nweakening over the next day or two.  And, based on the latest global\nmodel guidance, the cyclone could open up into a trough any time\nafter passing by the Lesser Antilles.  The new NHC intensity\nforecast is mainly an update of the previous one to account for the\nlower initial intensity, and it continues to closely follow the\nintensity consensus, IVCN, and the HCCA guidance.  Dissipation is\nnow shown by day 4, but as mentioned above, this could occur a lot\nsooner.\n\nKirk appears to have slowed down just a little, with an initial\nmotion toward the west-northwest, or 285/14 kt.  Ridging to the\nnorth should maintain Kirk on this general trajectory, with perhaps\njust a slight deceleration as it moves into the eastern Caribbean\nSea.  There are some speed differences among the models, with the\nECMWF showing a weaker and faster system, while the GFS shows a\nslightly stronger and slower system.  The NHC track forecast is\nbetween these two solutions and is closest to the HCCA model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 13.0N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 13.6N  58.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 14.4N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 15.1N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 15.6N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 16.0N  69.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018\n\nDuring the past several hours, the convective pattern of Rosa has\nbecome more symmetric, and perhaps an eye is trying to emerge in the\nlast few satellite images.  Overall, Rosa appears somewhat stronger\nthan the past advisory, so the initial wind speed is slightly raised\nto 75 kt- near the TAFB Dvorak estimate and the CIMSS ADT.\n\nThe hurricane has been steadily strengthening over the past day,\nand, with conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the\nforecast for the next couple of days, this trend should continue.\nA more rapid intensification period is possible if the inner core\nbecomes better defined.  Curiously, the intensity guidance has come\nin lower than the last cycle, despite no obvious inhibiting factors\nfrom all of the global models. I'd rather keep the high forecast of\nmy predecessor until the reasons for this lower peak intensity\nbecome clear.  In addition, the corrected-consensus guidance is\nhigher than the rest of the aids, supporting the stronger forecast.\nBy day 3 weakening should commence as Rosa moves over cooler waters,\nand rapid weakening is possible by the end of the forecast while the\ncyclone encounters high shear over quite cool waters.\n\nRosa has turned westward, now moving at about 10 kt.  A mid-level\nhigh over the southwestern United States should steer the hurricane\non this general course for the next day or so.   After that time,\nthe high shifts eastward due to a series of troughs approaching the\nwest coast of the United States, causing Rosa to gradually turn\ntoward the northwest by Friday, north on Saturday and to the\nnortheast by Monday.  There are still some pretty large speed\ndifferences in the models at long range, with the GFS-based guidance\na lot faster than the ECMWF or UKMET models and their ensembles.\nThere are no obvious reasons to favor either solution at this time,\nso the track forecast will stay close to the dynamical model\nconsensus and the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 16.9N 113.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z 24.6N 118.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  02/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nKirk has not changed much overnight.  Although the storm is\nproducing a large area of deep convection, the cloud pattern is not\nvery well organized with the center located near the southwestern\nedge of the thunderstorms.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to\nabout 20 kt of southwesterly shear.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters\npassed through the northeastern quadrant of Kirk a few hours ago and\nfound winds to support the same intensity of 45 kt. In addition,\nquality control of a ship report that came in around the same time\nalso supports that intensity.  Another Air Force plane is scheduled\nto investigate Kirk later this morning.\n\nA large fetch of strong upper-level westerly or southwesterly winds\nare over the entire Caribbean Sea, and Kirk will be moving into\nthese conditions during the next few days.  These very hostile winds\naloft should cause Kirk to steadily weaken, decouple, and ultimately\ndissipate in 3 or 4 days.  The GFS and ECMWF models suggest that\ndissipation could occur even sooner.  The intensity models are in\ngood agreement, and the NHC forecast is the same as the previous\none.\n\nCenter fixes from the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate\nthat Kirk is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt.  A continued\nwest-northwest motion but at a slower pace is expected during the\nnext few days as Kirk moves on the south side of a low- to mid-level\nridge.  The latest models have not changed much, and the NHC track\nforecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.  This\nforecast takes Kirk across the Lesser Antilles later today as a\ntropical storm.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 13.5N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 14.2N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 14.9N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 15.6N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 16.0N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 16.3N  71.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n300 AM MDT Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern is a little more impressive with plenty of deep\nconvection and a well-defined cyclonically-curved band south of the\ncenter. There is no evidence of an eye yet in conventional\nIR imagery.  Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies,\nhowever, are unanimously 4.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the intensity\nis kept at 75 kt.  Both atmospheric and oceanic conditions are\nfavorable for intensification with the possibility of rapid\nstrengthening within the next 12 to 24 hours, although intensity\nguidance is not as aggressive as in earlier runs.  The NHC forecast\nfollows closely the intensity consensus and is very similar to the\nprevious one.  Beyond 3 days, Rosa should be over cooler waters, and\nby the time it reaches the northern Baja California peninsula, the\ncyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm.\n\nRosa is moving westward or 270 degrees at 10 kt steered by the deep\neasterly flow around a subtropical ridge.  Rosa will soon reach\nthe southwestern edge of the high and will begin to move toward the\nnorthwest and northward as an eastward moving mid-level trough\nerodes the high to the north.  Rosa should then turn toward the\nnortheast ahead of the trough by the end of the forecast period.\nThis is the solution provided by most of the track models which all\nturn the cyclone northward and then northeastward. The NHC forecast\nis in the middle of the guidance envelope and is in between\nthe corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 17.1N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 17.8N 118.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 18.8N 118.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 22.0N 119.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  02/0600Z 29.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nIncreasing vertical shear is having a notable influence on the\nstructure of Kirk, as visible satellite imagery shows that the\nlow-level center of the cyclone is now exposed to the west of the\nmain area of deep convection.  Nonetheless, the Air Force Hurricane\nHunters still found strong winds in that convection.  In fact, based\non SFMR and flight-level winds from the Hurricane Hunters, the\nadvisory intensity of 45 kt may be a conservative estimate.  With\nthe increasing vertical decoupling of the vortex and even stronger\nshear associated with upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean\nSea, weakening is likely over the next couple of days.  Kirk should\ndegenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, if not sooner.  The\nofficial forecast is close to the multi-model intensity consensus,\nIVCN.\n\nThe storm continues moving west-northwestward, with a current\nmotion estimate of 285/13 kt.  A mid-level high pressure area just\nto the east of Florida is likely to steer Kirk on a\nwest-northwestward to westward course for the next few days.  Some\nfurther slowing of forward speed is expected as the high weakens\nslightly.  The NHC track forecast is very close to the latest HFIP\ncorrected consensus prediction.\n\nInterests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although\nKirk is becoming disorganized, strong winds are still occurring\nover the eastern portion of the circulation.  These winds are still\nlikely to spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm\nWarning area later today.  Higher winds are especially likely over\nelevated terrain.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 13.8N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 14.3N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 14.9N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 15.5N  65.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 15.9N  67.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 16.0N  72.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 AM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nRosa is becoming better organized.  Conventional satellite imagery\nshow a large area of cold cloud tops near the center, and there is\na hint of an eye in the first-light visible images.  Microwave\nimagery indicates that the eye structure underneath the overcast\nhas become better defined, with less evidence of dry air entrainment\nthan seen yesterday.  The initial intensity has been increased to\n90 kt in best agreement with the subjective Dvorak estimate from\nTAFB and the CIMSS ADT technique.  The hurricane currently has good\noutflow in all directions.\n\nConditions appear generally favorable for continued strengthening\nfor the next 24-36 hr, and the new intensity forecast now makes Rosa\na major hurricane in 12 h.  It should be noted that if the current\nstrengthening is the start of the previously anticipated rapid\nintensification Rosa could get stronger than the current forecast,\nwhich shows a peak intensity of 105 kt near the upper edge of the\nintensity guidance.  After 36 h, the forecast track takes the\ncyclone over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and by the end of\nthe forecast period it is expected to encounter strong southwesterly\nvertical shear.  This combination should cause significant\nweakening, and Rosa is expected to be a tropical storm as it\napproaches the Baja California peninsula near the end of the\nforecast period.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 270/10.  For the next\n12-24 h, the hurricane should move generally westward on the south\nside of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of northern\nMexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California.  Subsequently, Rosa\nshould turn northwestward and northward through a break in the ridge\ncaused by a large mid-latitude trough moving eastward through the\nnortheastern Pacific.  By 96-120 h, Rosa should recurve\nnortheastward into the westerlies on the eastern side of the trough\nand move in the general direction of northwestern Mexico and the\nnorthern Baja California peninsula.  There remains some spread in\nthe guidance forward speed after recurvature, with the GFS being\nfaster than the ECMWF.  The new intensity forecast is a blend of\nthese extremes in forward speed at the 96 and 120 h points.\nOverall, the guidance envelope has shifted a little west since the\nprevious advisory, and the new track is also shifted a little\nwestward.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 17.2N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 17.3N 116.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 17.5N 118.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 19.5N 119.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  02/1200Z 29.5N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nKirk remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed low-level\ncenter located to the west of the main convective mass. There has\nbeen some redevelopment of deep convection just northeast of the\ncenter this afternoon, but much of the convection is located well\neast and southeast of the center.  Despite the satellite\npresentation, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating\nKirk through early this afternoon continued to find winds to\nsupport an initial intensity of 45 kt.  Another reconnaissance\naircraft mission is scheduled to fly into the storm late this\nafternoon and evening.\n\nThe strong westerly shear that is currently affecting the tropical\ncyclone is forecast to increase over the next day or so, and Kirk\nis expected to weaken as the low- and mid-level centers decouple\neven further. Kirk is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression\nwithin 36 hours, and is likely to become an open trough in 2 to 3\ndays when the system reaches the central Caribbean Sea.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is in good agreement with the various intensity\naids, and the global models which show weakening and dissipation of\nthe system within 72 hours.\n\nKirk is moving west-northwestward or 290 degrees at 12 kt. A low-\nto mid-level ridge located over the southwestern Atlantic is\nexpected to steer Kirk west-northwestward to westward during the\nnext couple of days.  The updated NHC track forecast is near the\nmiddle of the tightly clustered guidance, and is essentially an\nupdate of the previous advisory.\n\nInterests in the Lesser Antilles should bear in mind that, although\nKirk has become less organized over the past 24 hours, heavy\nrainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern portion of\nthe circulation. These winds and rains are still likely to spread\nwestward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning area later\nthis evening through early Friday. Higher winds are especially\nlikely over elevated terrain.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 14.2N  60.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 14.6N  62.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 15.3N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 15.8N  66.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 16.1N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nRosa is undergoing rapid intensification, accompanied by the\nformation of a well-defined 15 n mi wide eye inside the central\ndense overcast.  Recent subjective and objective satellite intensity\nestimates are generally in the 100-115 kt range, and the initial\nintensity is increased to 110 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS\nADT and the subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Rosa continues to\nhave good cirrus outflow in all directions.\n\nThe intensity forecast has some complexities.  The first is how much\nmore Rosa will strengthen before the rapid intensification stops.\nThe new intensity forecast follows the upper edge of the guidance in\nshowing about 12 h more strengthening with a peak intensity of\n120 kt.  That being said, it would not be surprising if Rosa got\nstronger than that.  The simplest part of the forecast is from 24-72\nh, when the sea surface temperatures cool along the forecast track\nwith Rosa gradually weakening as a result.  After 72 h, the cyclone\nshould move across the quite cold waters of the northeastern\nPacific, and then move across Baja California over the warm water of\nthe Gulf of California.  While that is happening, a mid-latitude\ntrough to the northwest is expected to cause both strong shear and\nstrong upper-level divergence over Rosa.  The intensity guidance\nresponds to this combination of ingredients with intensity forecasts\nof anywhere between 30-65 kt as Rosa makes landfall on the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.  The new intensity forecast continues to call\nfor Rosa to weaken to a tropical storm before reaching Baja\nCalifornia.  However, this should be considered to be a low\nconfidence forecast at this time.\n\nRosa is farther south than estimated in the previous advisory, and\nthe new initial motion is now 265/9.  Other than that, there is no\nchange in the forecast philosophy from the previous forecast.  For\nthe next 12 h or so, the hurricane should move generally westward on\nthe south side of the subtropical ridge over the Pacific west of\nnorthern Mexico and a mid-latitude ridge over California.\nSubsequently, Rosa should turn northwestward and northward through a\nbreak in the ridge caused by the aforementioned large mid-latitude\ntrough moving eastward through the northeastern Pacific.  By 96-120\nh, Rosa should recurve northeastward into the westerlies on the\neastern side of the trough and move in the general direction of the\nnorthern Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico.  The\ndynamical models show spread in both direction and speed as Rosa\napproaches Baja.  The ECMWF and the Canadian models are on the left\nside of the envelope in forecasting landfall on the northern part of\nthe peninsula, while the GFS and the HWRF are on the right side with\na landfall closer to the central part of the peninsula. The new\nforecast track lies between those extremes near the center of the\nguidance envelope and the consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 16.9N 115.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 17.5N 118.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 18.4N 118.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 26.5N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nSatellite images, radar data, aircraft data, and surface\nobservations all indicate that Kirk's center made landfall on St.\nLucia around 0030 UTC.  However, that fact is of minimal consequence\nsince most of the inclement weather is displaced more than 60 n mi\nto the east of the center due to continued 30-40 kt of westerly\nshear.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been\ninvestigating Kirk, and SFMR winds within the convection to the east\nstill appear to support an initial intensity of 45 kt.\n\nSince the shear affecting Kirk is not expected to abate during the\nnext couple of days, the storm's maximum winds are forecast to\ngradually decrease, as is shown by all of the intensity guidance.\nIn fact, the global models continue to insist that Kirk's\ncirculation will open up into a trough, possibly within 24-36 hours.\nTo maintain continuity with the previous forecast, the new NHC\nintensity forecast continues to show Kirk weakening to a tropical\ndepression in 36 hours but then shows dissipation by 48 hours.\n\nKirk's center has been moving south of due west during the past\n6-12 hours, possibly due to some interaction with the mountains of\nSt. Lucia, and the initial motion estimate is 260/10 kt.  Once the\ncenter moves farther from the island, however, it is expected to\nresume a west-northwestward motion and increase in speed a bit as\nit comes under the influence of stronger ridging to its north.  The\nNHC official forecast follows the general trend shown by the track\nguidance, and at least speed-wise, it is very close to the previous\nforecast and the HCCA model.  However, given the recent motion of\nthe center, the new forecast is nudged southward and lies south of\nthe most reliable track models and consensus aids.\n\nInterests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind\nthat, although Kirk has become less organized over the past 24\nhours, heavy rainfall and winds are still occurring over the eastern\nportion of the circulation.  These winds and rains are still likely\nto spread westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm Warning\narea through early Friday.  Higher winds are especially likely over\nelevated terrain.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 13.8N  61.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 14.3N  63.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 14.9N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 15.3N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 PM PDT Thu Sep 27 2018\n\nRosa has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several\nhours, with a distinct and warm eye noted on satellite images along\nwith deep eyewall convection.  A blend of the latest Dvorak\nestimates gives an initial wind speed estimate of 125 kt, making\nRosa the seventh category 4 hurricane of the very busy 2018 eastern\nPacific hurricane season.  It is worth noting that this value ties\n2015 for the highest observed seasonal total in the basin during\nthe satellite era.\n\nThe hurricane still has a chance to intensify further given that it\nis still over warm waters within light shear.  By the weekend,\nhowever, Rosa will encounter more marginal SSTs, and the shear\nwill likely increase.  These conditions should cause a significant\nweakening of the hurricane by early next week, and for Rosa to fall\nback to a tropical storm by Tuesday.  The intensity forecast isn't\nparticularly confident at long range because of the possibility of a\ntrough interaction somewhat offsetting the effects of cool eastern\nPacific waters and dry stable air.  So far the guidance is fairly\nconsistent, and the forecast continues to show steady weakening as\nRosa approaches Baja California.\n\nRosa continues moving at 265 deg, now at 8 kt.   A mid-level ridge\nover the southwestern United States is forecast to weaken and move\neastward over the next couple of days as a mean mid-tropospheric\ntrough forms near the west coast of the US.  This synoptic pattern\nshould cause the tropical cyclone to gradually turn northward over\nthat time, and eventually move to the northeast due to Rosa getting\ncaught up into southwestern flow ahead of the trough.  While there\nare still some notable speed differences in the model guidance, the\noverall trend is for a faster solution, which is consistent with a\nmore vertically deep system feeling the stronger mid-level flow.\nThe model consensus continues the faster trend, and the new\nforecast follows suit.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 16.9N 116.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 17.1N 117.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 17.8N 118.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 19.0N 118.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 20.9N 118.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 25.0N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 36.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nKirk is a highly sheared cyclone with most of the associated\nweather well east of the center. Despite the lack of organization of\nthe cloud pattern, a reconnaissance plane a few hours ago, reported\nwinds to support an initial intensity of 45 kt.  Another plane will\nbe investigating Kirk early this morning and will determine how much\nthe cyclone has weakened.  The upper-level winds are highly\nunfavorable across the entire Caribbean basin, and the most likely\nscenario is for Kirk to open up into a trough sooner rather than\nlater as indicated by most of the global models. The NHC forecast\nkeeps the cyclone for another 24 hours, but dissipation could occur\nmuch earlier.\n\nSatellite imagery, radar from Martinique, and plane fixes indicate\nthat Kirk jogged toward the west-southwest earlier. This could be an\nindication that the center is becoming less defined, but the bottom\nline is that the system as a whole is expected to move westward\nabout 10 kt since it is embedded within the trade winds. This is the\nsolution provided by most of the models, which all show a weakening\ntrough propagating westward across the eastern and central Caribbean\nSea.\n\nInterests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to bear in mind\nthat most of the weather associated with Kirk is displaced to the\neast of the center. These winds and rains are still likely to\ncontinue spreading westward over the islands in the Tropical Storm\nWarning area for the next several hours.  Higher winds are\nanticipated especially over elevated terrain.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 13.2N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 13.2N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 14.0N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nAlthough enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that Rosa's 20 n\nmi wide eye has continued to warm (+16C) this morning, the southwest\nquadrant of the eyewall appears to have weakened, or collapsed, and\nthe inner ring cloud tops have warmed considerably.  This change in\nthe cloud pattern maybe the early stage of an eyewall replacement\ncycle (ERC).  It's certainly worth noting, however, that the\nsatellite presentation about 3 hours ago indicated that Rosa may\nhave reached a peak intensity of 130-135 kt which was also\nindicated in the ADT adjusted raw T-numbers.  For this advisory,\nthe initial intensity is set at 125 kt and is based on a compromise\nof the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.\n\nRosa has a small window of opportunity to complete its ERC and\nrestrengthen before it encounters decreasing oceanic temperatures,\nand increasing southwesterly shear.  These inhibiting factors, along\nwith Rosa moving into a more stable air mass, should cause a\ndownward intensity trend by early next week, and for the cyclone to\nweaken to a tropical storm by Tuesday, and a tropical depression as\nit quickly moves northeastward over the southwestern U.S.  The\nintensity forecast is similar to my predecessor's and is close to\nthe IVCN consensus through 48 hours, then quite similar to the\nNOAA-HCCA intensity model beyond that forecast period.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/6 kt.  A\nmid-level ridge over the southwestern United States is forecast to\nweaken over the next couple of days in response to an approaching\nmid-level shortwave trough from the northwest.  This growing\nweakness in the ridge should influence Rosa to gradually turn\nnorthward through mid-period, and afterward, turn northeastward\nwithin the strong mid- to upper tropospheric southwesterly flow\nproduced by the aforementioned trough.  The NHC track forecast was\nadjusted ever so slightly to the left of the previous one to light\nmore closely to the TVCN and HCCA multi-model guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 16.9N 117.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 17.4N 117.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 18.4N 118.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 20.1N 118.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 22.0N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 25.9N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  02/0600Z 30.6N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n120H  03/0600Z 38.2N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nKirk has become less organized since the last advisory, with\nsatellite imagery showing that the low-level center is now exposed\nwell to the west-northwest of the remaining deep convection.\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hurricane Hunter\naircraft indicate that the winds have decreased to near 40 kt and\nthat the central pressure has risen to near 1007 mb.  The aircraft\nalso reports that the circulation is losing definition in the\nsouthwestern quadrant.  Kirk should continue to weaken due to the\neffects of 30 kt of westerly vertical shear, and the NHC forecast\ncontinues to call for dissipation just after 24 h.  As noted in the\nprevious discussion, there is a chance dissipation could occur\nearlier than currently forecast.\n\nThe center has jogged back to the west-northwest during the past\nfew hours, which results in an uncertain initial motion of 285/11.\nKirk should move generally west-northwestward on the south side of\nthe subtropical ridge until dissipation.\n\nEven though Kirk is weakening and moving away from the Lesser\nAntilles, the associated gusty winds and rains should continue\naffecting the islands today.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 13.8N  63.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 14.2N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 14.8N  67.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  14...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 AM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nCorrected typo in second paragraph.\n\nCloud tops surrounding the distinct eye of Rosa have warmed\nconsiderably over the past few hours.  A recent SSMI overpass\nshowed a distinct double eyewall structure, and this is likely the\nreason for the degradation of Rosa's appearance.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as a result, and the\ninitial intensity has been therefore decreased to 120 kt.  Given\nthe continued warming of cloud tops since 1200 UTC, it is possible\nthat Rosa has weakened a little more than this.\n\nSince an eyewall replacement cycle is ongoing, Rosa is no longer\nexpected to intensify.  In the short term, some additional\nweakening is likely, typical of major hurricanes undergoing eyewall\nreplacements.  If this process completes within the next 24 hours,\nthere will be some opportunity for the hurricane to re-intensify\nwhile the shear is low and the hurricane remains over warm SSTs.\nHowever, steady weakening is anticipated beginning Saturday night\nsince the cyclone is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs. By 96\nh, a weaker Rosa will likely approach the northern west coast of\nthe Baja California peninsula and the resulting interaction with\nland will likely cause the cyclone to dissipate.  It is worth\nnoting that a farther northwest track would likely result in Rosa\nweakening faster than currently indicated, while a farther\nsoutheast track could allow Rosa to maintain a slightly stronger\ncirculation as it crosses the northern Gulf of California.\n\nRosa has begun its long-anticipated turn toward the northwest, and\nthe initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt.  The track models remain\nin good agreement that Rosa will gradually turn toward the north,\nand then north-northeast over the next few days ahead of an\napproaching mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest.  No\nsignificant changes were made to the official track forecast, but\nit has been adjusted slightly to the left (or northwest) at most\ntimes, in line with the latest consensus guidance.\n\nEven though the NHC forecast calls for the surface circulation of\nRosa to dissipate after making landfall along the northern Baja\nCalifornia coast, its associated moisture is expected to spread\nnortheastward through parts of the southwest United States.  For\nmore information about potential rainfall in that area, please see\nproducts from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS\nforecast office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 17.2N 117.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 17.8N 118.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 19.2N 118.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 21.0N 118.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 23.0N 118.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 26.7N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  02/1200Z 31.6N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nKirk is barely meeting the criteria for a tropical cyclone.  The\nsmall low-level center is still exposed well to the west of most of\nthe deep convection.  The last fix from the earlier Air Force\nReserve Hurricane Hunter mission found that the cyclone was still\nclosed, but the maximum winds had decreased to near 35 kt.  Since\nit seems likely that winds of this magnitude are still occuring in\nthe convection to the east of Kirk, the system is maintained as a\ntropical storm for this advisory.  Another reconnaissance mission\nis scheduled for tonight, and it should give a better estimate of\nthe intensity of Kirk, and if the cyclone still has a well-defined\nsurface circulation.\n\nNo significant changes have been made to the track or intensity\nforecasts. Kirk is expected to move generally west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward over the next 12 hours or so while weakening due to\nthe continued effects of strong westerly wind shear. By tomorrow\nmorning, the cyclone will likely have degenerated into a trough of\nlow pressure.  Even though Kirk is weakening, heavy rains are\nexpected over St Croix and eastern Puerto Rico during the next day\nor two while Kirk or its remnants pass to the south of those\nislands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 14.7N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 15.3N  66.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nCentral convection associated with Post-Tropical Storm Leslie has\ngradually increased during the last couple of days and is now\norganized into a group of bands that wraps most of the way around\nthe center.  In addition, scatterometer data show that the cyclone\nhas lost much of its large baroclinic wind field, and that the\nradius of maximum winds has contracted from 120-180 n mi yesterday\nto 90 n mi or less today.  While the storm has also developed a warm\ncore and shed some of its baroclinic characteristics, it is embedded\nin a large deep-layer low pressure system, and thus it is designated\nsubtropical instead of tropical.  The initial intensity is set at 45\nkt based on the scatterometer data.\n\nLeslie has been moving generally westward for the the past few\ndays.  The large-scale models forecast a general southwesterly\nmotion for the next 3-4 days as the cyclone is steered by a segment\nof the subtropical ridge to its west and another large deep-layer\nlow forming to its east over the eastern Atlantic, with a decrease\nin forward speed near the end of the forecast period as the ridge\nto the west weakens.  The forecast guidance is tightly clustered\nthrough 120 h, and the forecast track is near the center of the\nguidance envelope and the consensus models.\n\nThe forecast track takes the center of Leslie over increasing sea\nsurface temperatures during the next several days, although the\ntemperatures may not be as warm as those indicated in the SHIPS\nmodel.  The global models suggest that little change in strength\nwill occur during the first 48-72 h as Leslie gradually develops\nthe upper-level outflow pattern of a tropical cyclone and\ntransitions to a tropical storm.  After that time, they are in good\nagreement that the cyclone will strengthen.  Based on this, the\nintensity forecast shows only modest intensification during the\nfirst 48 h, followed by strengthening to a probably conservative\n60 kt.  The forecast also calls for transition to a tropical storm\nbetween 48-72 h, with the caveat that this could occur earlier.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 36.1N  48.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 35.4N  49.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 34.4N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 33.8N  52.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 33.2N  53.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 32.5N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 96H  02/1800Z 31.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  03/1800Z 31.0N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nRosa's appearance has rapidly deteriorated since this morning.\nThere is still evidence of an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle,\nand an apparent moat region has occasionally been apparent in\nconventional satellite data during the past several hours.  The slow\nmotion of the hurricane since last night could also be causing\nupwelling that would lead to further weakening.  Satellite\nintensity estimates from all agencies have dropped substantially\naccordingly, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 105 kt,\nbased on a blend of Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.\n\nRosa is still moving northwestward, with an initial motion of\n325/5 kt. The model spread has increased a little, with the GFS and\nits associated regional models showing a slightly right (southeast)\ntrack, compared to earlier cycles, while the ECMWF has shifted an\nequal amount to the left (northwest). The consensus models have not\nchanged much as a result of these offsetting model trends, so almost\nno change was made to the NHC track forecast. Rosa is still expected\nto turn northward, and then north-northeastward ahead of a mid- to\nupper-level trough approaching from the northwest.  The cyclone\nshould then accelerate a little as it approaches the northern coast\nof the Baja California peninsula early next week.\n\nAt this point, the structure of Rosa has degraded to the point that\nsubstantial restrengthening appears unlikely.  Since the hurricane\nstill has about 24-36 hours before it reaches much cooler SSTs,\nonly gradual weakening is forecast, though most of the intensity\nguidance shows more rapid weakening than currently indicated.\nAfter that time, a more rapid rate of weakening could occur due to\ncooler SSTs and an increase in wind shear associated with an\nupper-level trough approaching from the west.\n\nBy early next week, Rosa is forecast to move inland over northern\nBaja California, and its surface circulation will likely dissipate\nshortly thereafter. However, moisture associated with Rosa is\nexpected to spread northeastward through parts of the southwest\nUnited States.  For more information about potential rainfall in\nthat area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center\nand your local NWS forecast office.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Rosa could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula in a few days.\nInterests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall associated with Rosa or its remnants is expected\nto affect parts of the southwest United States by early next week,\nwhich could cause flooding in this region.  For more information\nabout potential rainfall and flooding, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 17.7N 117.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 18.6N 118.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 20.3N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.1N 118.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 24.0N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 27.7N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 32.3N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Kirk","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Kirk Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nEven though there still appears to be a circulation center in\nsatellite imagery, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane was\nunable to find westerly winds that would support a closed\ncirculation.  Therefore, Kirk has degenerated into an open wave,\nand this will be the last advisory.  The SFMR on the plane still\nmeasured winds around 35 kt in the convection to the east of the\nwave axis, and that will remain the initial intensity.\n\nThe wave will continue moving westward across the Caribbean Sea\nduring the next few days, with its winds gradually decreasing due\nto continued westerly shear.  Heavy rains are still possible over\nportions of eastern Puerto Rico and St. Croix during the next day\nor two while Kirk's remnants pass to the south.\n\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\nat https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 15.1N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nConvective banding has been consolidating to the south of Leslie's\ncenter since the afternoon, but recent scatterometer data indicate\nthat the maximum winds have decreased to 40 kt and the area of\ngale-force winds has decreased in size.  The convective structure\nsuggests that Leslie may be taking on some tropical characteristics,\nbut since wave vapor imagery still shows the cyclone embedded within\na complex deep-layer low, Leslie is still being designated as\nsubtropical.\n\nLeslie is moving west-southwestward, or 255 degrees at 10 kt.\nLeslie is entrenched between several mid-tropospheric highs located\nto its east and west, and these features are expected to push\nLeslie slowly southwestward for the next 3 days.  The track\nguidance is tightly clustered during this period, and the NHC\nforecast is very similar to the previous one.  After day 3, Leslie\nis likely to meander on days 4 and 5 in weak steering, and the\nupdated official forecast has been adjusted southward and eastward\nat the end of the forecast period to account for the latest model\nsolutions.\n\nGlobal model fields indicate that Leslie has migrated to the\nnorthwest of its parent upper-level low, which is putting it under\na regime of moderate north-northeasterly shear.  For the next 48\nhours, this shear is expected to continue, and phase-space diagrams\nsuggest that Leslie will be straddling the line between shallow and\ndeep warm core.  As a result, only modest strengthening is\nanticipated during this period, and the official forecast maintains\nLeslie as a subtropical storm through 48 hours.  However, the\ntransition to a tropical storm could occur any time during the next\nday or two.  After 48 hours, Leslie should definitely be deep warm\ncore, and more significant strengthening is expected, with the\ncyclone forecast to reach hurricane intensity by day 4.  This\nscenario is shown by the various intensity models, and the NHC\nintensity forecast is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus\naid and the Florida State Superensemble.  If the statistical-\ndynamical models are correct, Leslie could be stronger by the end of\nthe forecast period than is indicated in the NHC forecast.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a stronger\nextratropical low have already reached Bermuda, will soon reach the\nLesser and Greater Antilles, and should reach portions of the east\ncoast of the United States later this weekend.  These swells could\ncause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 35.7N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 34.9N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 34.0N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 33.5N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 33.1N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  02/0000Z 32.2N  55.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 96H  03/0000Z 30.5N  56.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  04/0000Z 31.5N  56.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 PM PDT Fri Sep 28 2018\n\nThe satellite appearance of Rosa continues to degrade due to an\nongoing eyewall cycle with weaker convection noted near the\neyewall and an apparent moat region.  Dvorak estimates continue to\nfall, and a blend from all agencies gives 95 kt as an initial wind\nspeed.  Continued weakening is in the forecast while Rosa moves\nacross progressively cooler SSTs into a higher shear and drier\nenvironment.  There is some chance that the weakening could pause if\nthe eyewall cycle finishes, but that's less likely as the cyclone\nencounters the less favorable environment.  Thus Rosa is forecast to\ncontinue to gradually weaken until it approaches Baja California as\na tropical storm.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement on\nthis scenario, and the new NHC prediction is basically an update of\nthe previous one after accounting for the initial winds.\n\nRosa has turned to the north-northwest and accelerated, with an\ninitial motion of 340/8.  The cyclone should turn to the north\ntomorrow and move faster to the north-northeast on Sunday ahead of a\nmid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United\nStates.  There are no substantial guidance changes to consider, and\nwith the model consensus being quite reliable so far, it makes\nsense to stay near that aid, which is also very close to the\nprevious forecast.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico and the Desert\nSouthwest.  These rains are expected to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and debris flows in the deserts and landslides in\nmountainous terrain.  For more information about potential rainfall\nin that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center\nand your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of\nthe central and northern Baja California peninsula in a few days.\nInterests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 18.4N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 19.5N 118.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 23.3N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 25.1N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  02/0000Z 28.9N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  03/0000Z 36.0N 112.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nThe deep convection has become more concentrated near the center\nduring the past several hours indicating that Leslie is gradually\nacquiring some tropical characteristics, but the cyclone is still\ntoo attached to a complex deep-layer low. On this basis, Leslie is\nstill considered a subtropical storm in this advisory with an\ninitial intensity of 40 kt.  Global models indicate that the\nsubtropical cyclone will continue to be embedded within strong\nnortherly shear during the next 2 days or so. After that time, the\nshear is forecast to relax and with a warm ocean along the cyclone's\npath, Leslie is forecast to become fully tropical and reach\nhurricane status by the end of the forecast period. SHIPS model and\nits derivatives strengthen Leslie significantly, but the NHC\nforecast is a little less aggressive, and it follows the intensity\nconsensus.\n\nLeslie has been moving toward the southwest or 230 degrees at 6 kt,\nsteered by the flow around the western side of the large deep-layer\nlow in which Leslie is embedded.  Since this steering pattern is\nnot expected to change, Leslie will probably continue on the same\ngeneral track for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the large\nlow weakens and the cyclone will become steered slowly northward by\nthe flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. Nevertheless,\nLeslie is forecast to meander over the north-central Atlantic for\nseveral more days. This is the solution provided by most of the\nglobal models, and the NHC forecast follows very closely the\nmulti-model consensus aids and the corrected consensus HCCA.\n\nLarge swells previously generated by Leslie when it was a stronger\nextratropical low have already reached Bermuda, and will soon reach\nthe Lesser and Greater Antilles. These swells are expected to reach\nportions of the east coast of the United States by Sunday. These\nswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 35.2N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 34.4N  51.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 33.8N  52.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 33.5N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 33.2N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 72H  02/0600Z 32.3N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  03/0600Z 31.0N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  04/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nRosa's satellite appearance has degraded significantly since the\nprevious advisory with an eye no longer evident in infrared imagery.\nHowever, a well-defined low-level eye is evident in recent passive\nmicrowave imagery. A comparison of the two data sources indicate\nthat the upper-level circulation is tilted to the east of the\nlow-level eye by 12-18 nmi due to westerly shear of about 15 kt as\nassessed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity of 85 kt is based on a\nblend of satellite intensity estimates form TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS\nADT and SATCON.\n\nRosa is moving northward now and the initial motion estimate is\n350/08 kt. During the next 72 hours, the hurricane is forecast to\nmove around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge that extends\nfrom the Gulf of Mexico westward to Baja California, resulting in a\nnorthward motion today, and a turn toward the north-northeast at a\nfaster forward speed on Monday and Tuesday as a mid-latitude trough\napproaches from the west. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly\npacked about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes\nwere required. The new NHC track forecast lies close to a blend of\nthe consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN.\n\nRosa's intensity has decreased 40 kt during the past 24 hours, with\nthe bulk of the weakening having occurred during the past 18 hours,\nand additional weakening is expected due to the cyclone moving over\ncooler water and into a regime of increasing southwesterly vertical\nwind shear of more than 30 kt by 48 hours. Although Rosa is\ncurrently located over 28 deg C SSTs, the depth of the warm water is\nquite shallow, so cold upwelling occurring beneath the hurricane\nwill act to hasten the weakening process today. Rosa is forecast to\napproach Baja California as a tropical storm, and then quickly\ndegenerate into a tropical and a remnant low as the cyclone moves\nacross the mountainous terrain of northern Baja California and\nnorthwestern mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast\nclosely follows the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert\nSouthwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in\nmountainous terrain.  For more information about potential rainfall\nin that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center\nand your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of\nthe central and northern Baja California peninsula in a couple of\ndays. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of\nRosa.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 19.2N 118.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 20.5N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 24.4N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 26.2N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  02/0600Z 30.9N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIF\n 96H  03/0600Z 38.0N 111.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nLeslie's cloud pattern has taken on a more tropical appearance\nsince last night.  However, the cyclone is still co-located with an\nupper-level low, so its status as a subtropical cyclone is\nmaintained for this advisory.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt,\nbased on a subtropical classification of 35-40 kt from TAFB.\n\nThe global models forecast that Leslie will separate from the\nupper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should\ncomplete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could\nresult in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next\nweek the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear\nenvironment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that\ntime, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further\nstrengthening. There is a large amount of spread in the intensity\nguidance by day 5, but it is worth noting that the models most\ncapable of properly representing the effect of ocean cooling on\nintensity, COAMPS-TC, HWRF, and HMON, all keep Leslie below\nhurricane strength for the next 5 days.  The HWRF in particular\nforecasts nearly 5 deg C of ocean cooling beneath the cyclone. The\nNHC intensity forecast is generally a little lower than the previous\nadvisory, but is still near the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids at all\nforecast hours. If Leslie moves more than expected, it would not be\nsurprising if it strengthened more than currently forecast.\n\nLittle change was made to the official track forecast.  Leslie is\nstill expected to move slowly southwestward for the next couple of\ndays, before coming to a near halt early next week.  By the\nmiddle of the week, an approaching mid-latitude trough could steer\nLeslie toward the north or northeast and allow the cyclone to start\ngaining speed, however, there is a lot of spread among the global\nmodels as to how quickly this will occur, and confidence in this\nportion of the forecast is fairly low.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and\nmost of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These\nswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 34.4N  50.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 33.8N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 33.3N  52.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 33.1N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 48H  01/1200Z 32.8N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 31.6N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 31.0N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 33.0N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 AM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nRosa has become significantly better organized during the last\nseveral hours, likely due to the completion of an eyewall\nreplacement cycle before the center moved over cold water.  The\nstorm now has a 30-40 n mi wide eye, and the eyewall convective tops\nhave become much colder and more symmetric.  The initial intensity\nhas been increased to 90 kt based on a blend of various satellite\nintensity estimates, and it is possible that this intensity is\nconservative.  The hurricane has good to excellent cirrus outflow in\nthe northeastern semicircle.\n\nThe current re-intensification was poorly anticipated, and it is\nunclear how much more strengthening will occur before Rosa reaches\nthe 26C isotherm in about 12 h.  Even if the hurricane strengthens\na little more, the combination of decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures and increasing shear should cause steady to rapid\nweakening after 12 h, and the new intensity forecast still calls for\nthe cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength before the center\nreaches the Baja California peninsula between 48-72 h.  After\nlandfall, Rosa is expected to weaken even faster, and the surface\ncirculation is forecast to dissipate just after 72 h in agreement\nwith all of the dynamical models.  However, the mid-level\ncirculation and the associated rainfall will continue moving across\nthe southwestern United States after the surface circulation\ndissipates.\n\nThe initial motion is now 355/10.  During the forecast period, the\nhurricane will recurve into the westerlies between a deep-layer\nridge over northern Mexico and a large mid- to upper-level trough\nover California and the adjacent Pacific.  This should result in a\ncontinued northward motion through tonight, followed by a turn\ntoward the north-northeast on Sunday.  The new forecast track is\nsimilar to, but a little faster than, the previous track and lies\nnear the consensus models.  On the forecast track, the center of\nRosa will move near or over the central and northern portions the\nBaja California peninsula on Monday and Monday night, and then move\ninto the southwestern United States on Tuesday.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert\nSouthwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in\nmountainous terrain.  For more information about potential rainfall\nin that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center\nand your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of\nthe central and northern Baja California peninsula starting on\nMonday.  Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of\nRosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 20.5N 118.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 23.9N 118.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 25.9N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 27.7N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 33.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-09-29 15:30:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Special Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n1030 AM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that convection associated with the low\npressure area south-southwest of Acapulco has continued to become\nbetter organized, with the low-level center embedded under the\nconvective overcast and near a developing complex of bands in the\nsoutheastern semicircle.  Based on this and continuity from earlier\nscatterometer data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical\nStorm Sergio with 35 kt winds.\n\nSergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear\nand high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the\nnext 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening. Near\nthe end of the forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing\nnortheasterly shear which could limit intensification. The intensity\nforecast, which is near the intensity consensus, calls for steady\nstrengthening through 96 h, with Sergio becoming a hurricane by 48\nh.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/11.  Sergio should\nbe steered generally westward for the next three days or so by the\nsubtropical ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone should\napproach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to\nupper-level trough over California, and this should lead to a turn\ntoward the northwest.  The track guidance is in good agreement\nwith this scenario, and the forecast track lies near the HCCA\ncorrected consensus model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1530Z 12.4N 102.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 12.7N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 12.9N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 12.9N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 12.8N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 13.0N 113.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nLeslie has continued to take on more tropical characteristics over\nthe past few hours. Anti-cyclonic outflow is now present to the\nnortheast and southeast of Leslie and its primary convective band.\nLate-arriving AMSU data from 1316 UTC also indicated that Leslie has\ndeveloped a deep-layer warm core structure. Based on these factors,\nLeslie has been designated as a tropical storm.  The initial\nintensity is set at 45 kt, based on a blend of recent satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.\n\nLeslie continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial motion\nof 225/5 kt. The guidance is in very good agreement that this\ngeneral motion will continue for another 24 h or so, before the\ncyclone becomes nearly stationary by early next week. An approaching\nmid-latitude trough is still expected to eventually cause Leslie to\nturn toward the north or northeast, perhaps over its own track, in 4\nor 5 days. Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track\nforecast, which remains close to the various track consensus aids.\n\nThe NHC intensity forecast has not been changed in any significant\nway and remains near the intensity consensus, but slightly favors\nthe regional hurricane models.  Leslie is currently located over\nfairly cool SSTs, and its slow motion could cause further ocean\ncooling. This could particularly be an issue in a few days when the\ntropical storm is expected to become nearly stationary. The\nocean-coupled regional models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) continue to\nindicate that Leslie will struggle to intensify much over the next\nfew days, despite a fairly favorable upper-level environment. On the\nother hand, some of the uncoupled global models and the SHIPS and\nLGEM models suggest that more intensification will occur and that\nLeslie could become a hurricane in a few days. Highlighting the\npotential importance of SSTs in this case, the SHIPS and LGEM models\nbegan using daily SST fields at 18Z, which show nearly 2 deg C\ncooler SSTs along the track of Leslie, and those models now show\nmuch less intensification than they did before.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and\nmost of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through the weekend. These\nswells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 34.1N  51.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 33.6N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 33.1N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 32.8N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 32.5N  53.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 31.5N  54.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  03/1800Z 31.5N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  04/1800Z 34.0N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nThe strengthening trend seen earlier has at least slowed, as Rosa\nhas shown little change in organization since the last advisory.\nThe hurricane continues to have a well-defined 30-40 n mi wide eye\ninside a central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold as -75C.\nThe various satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so\nthe initial intensity remains 90 kt.  The hurricane has good to\nexcellent cirrus outflow in the northeastern semicircle, and the\noutflow has recently improved in the southwestern semicircle.\n\nRosa is now crossing the 26C isotherm, so additional significant\nstrengthening appears unlikely.  After 12 h, the combination of\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should\ncause steady to rapid weakening, and the intensity forecast\ncontinues to call for the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength\nbefore the center reaches the Baja California peninsula in just\nover 48 h.  After landfall, the surface circulation is forecast to\ndissipate near the 72-h point in agreement with all of the dynamical\nmodels.  However, the mid-level circulation and the associated\nrainfall will continue moving across the southwestern United States\nafter the surface circulation dissipates.\n\nThe initial motion is 350/10.  During the forecast period, the\nhurricane will recurve into the westerlies between a deep-layer\nridge over northern Mexico and a large mid- to upper-level trough\nover California and the adjacent Pacific.  This should result in a\ncontinued northward motion through tonight, followed by a turn\ntoward the north-northeast on Sunday.  The new forecast track is\na little to the left of the previous track for the first 12 h, but\notherwise is changed little from the previous track.  On the\nforecast track, the center of Rosa or its remnants will move near or\nover the central and northern portions the Baja California peninsula\non Monday and Monday night, and then move into the southwestern\nUnited States on Tuesday.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Mexico, and the Desert\nSouthwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in\nmountainous terrain.  For more information about potential rainfall\nin that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center\nand your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Rosa could also bring tropical storm conditions to portions of\nthe central and northern Baja California peninsula starting on\nMonday.  Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of\nRosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 21.4N 118.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 22.9N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 26.7N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 28.8N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 34.5N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n400 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nRecent scatterometer data confirms that Sergio is at tropical storm\nstrength, but with a slightly unexpected twist - the maximum winds\nare in a band about 110 n mi east of the center and there is no\ninner wind core at this time.  The initial intensity remains 35 kt\nbased on the scatterometer data.  Sergio currently has good cirrus\noutflow in all directions, but there is some evidence that northerly\nupper-level winds below the level of the outflow are causing some\nlight shear.\n\nSergio is expected to be in an environment of light vertical shear\nand high humidity, and over warm sea surface temperatures for the\nnext 3 days or so, which should result in steady strengthening.\nThe environment is favorable enough for rapid intensification,\nalthough the current storm structure does not appear favorable for\nquick strengthening.  The intensity forecast calls for gradual\nintensification during the first 24-36 h, with a faster rate from\n36-72 h as the cyclone becomes better organized.  Near the end of\nthe forecast period, the storm may encounter increasing\nnortheasterly shear which could limit intensification, and this is\nreflected in the forecast.  The intensity forecast is in the middle\nof the guidance envelope and just above the intensity consensus,\nand the forecast may need to be adjusted upward in subsequent\nadvisories.  The wind radii forecast have been adjusted based on\nthe current structure and the latest radii guidance.\n\nThe initial motion is now 275/10.  Sergio should be steered\ngenerally westward for the next three days or so by the subtropical\nridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone should approach a\nweakness in the ridge caused by a large mid- to upper-level trough\nover California, and this should lead to a turn toward the\nnorthwest. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this\nscenario, and the new forecast track is similar to, but a little\nsouth of, the previous track.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 12.1N 102.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 12.3N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 12.3N 106.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 12.2N 108.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 12.1N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 13.0N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  03/1800Z 15.0N 117.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nThe structure of Leslie consists of a large, broken outer band\nwrapped around the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, with little\nconvection west of the center.  ASCAT data recently showed 40-45 kt\nwithin that band, so the maximum winds will stay at 45 kt.  The\nstorm should gradually move over somewhat warmer waters within a\nlighter shear environment during the next few days.  Thus gradual\nintensification is shown, similar to the model consensus.  The only\nnotable change to the previous forecast is to move up the peak\nintensity close to Leslie's southernmost position before it stalls.\nIt would seem that after that time, the relatively large system\nwould be moving close to its previous track over its self-generated\ncooler upwelled waters, and weaken somewhat at long range.\n\nLeslie continues to move southwestward, and its initial motion is\n235/5 kt.  This storm should move slowly to the southwest through\nSunday, then creep southward by late Monday due to steering\npartially by northerly flow from a distant ridge over the western\nAtlantic and a nearby large mid- to upper-level trough. Eventually,\na new ridge rebuilds over the east-central Atlantic east of Leslie,\nwhich causes the cyclone to move to the north at a faster pace by\nday 5. As you could imagine in such a complex pattern, the models\naren't in good agreement on how quickly the storm ejects, and this\nis a pretty uncertain forecast at long range.  Until some forecast\nscenarios become clear, the forecast will stay close to the\ncorrected-consensus aids, resulting in mostly cosmetic changes to\nthe last forecast.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and\nmost of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the\nweekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 33.9N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 33.4N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 33.0N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 32.6N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 32.2N  54.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 31.0N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 31.7N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 34.5N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 PM PDT Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nRecent microwave images indicate that Rosa's structure has begun to\ndeteriorate as a result of increasing southerly shear.  Despite the\ncold cloud tops noted in infrared imagery, the hurricane's eyewall\nis open on the south side, and there is very little convective\nbanding within the southern half of the circulation.  The various\nsubjective and objective intensity estimates have either held\nsteady or fallen a bit from six hours ago, and given the microwave\nsignature, the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.\n\nRosa is moving northward, or 360 degrees at 10 kt, along the\nwestern edge of a subtropical ridge which extends across northern\nMexico.  The cyclone is forecast to turn north-northeastward and\naccelerate slightly during the next 48-72 hours as it is steered\nbetween the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level trough located\noff the west coast of the United States.  The track guidance is\nclustered fairly tightly, although the ECMWF is notably slower than\nthe rest of the models, taking a little longer to bring Rosa's\ncenter to the Baja California peninsula.  The updated NHC track\nforecast was nudged southeastward beyond 36 hours to account for\nthe latest model guidance, and it shows Rosa reaching the coast in\nabout 48 hours.  A 72-hour forecast is provided for continuity, but\nRosa's surface circulation is likely to dissipate before that time\nover northwestern Mexico or southern Arizona, with the mid-level\nremnants continuing northward across the Desert Southwest and\nIntermountain West.\n\nRosa is now over waters colder than 26 degrees Celsius, and\ncombined with increasing vertical shear, the cyclone's intensity is\nexpected to decrease quickly, with rapid weakening even a\npossibility beginning on Sunday.  The official forecast follows the\nsharp weakening trend noted in the guidance, and it's actually\nslightly above the intensity consensus at a few forecast times.\nRosa is likely to devolve into an exposed low-level center with the\nassociated deep convection being sheared off to its north and\nnortheast by the time it is nearing the Baja California coast on\nMonday.  However, it will take some time for the circulation to spin\ndown, and Rosa is still expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds\nto portions of Baja California in 36-48 hours.  Based on the new\ntrack and intensity forecast, a Tropical Storm Warning and Watch has\nbeen issued for portions of the west and east coast of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula, respectively.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly\nspreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.\nInterests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 22.4N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 23.9N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 25.7N 117.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 29.6N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA\n 72H  03/0000Z 35.7N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 29 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Sergio has become better organized\nduring the past several hours with more concentrated convection near\nthe center.  Intensity estimates are slightly higher than the past\nadvisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt, closest to the\nCIMSS SATCON.  The storm should be in a low-shear, warm-water, and\nhigh-moisture environment for the next 2 or 3 days.  While there\nare no signs of an inner core forming yet, that usually doesn't\nstop steady intensification, and rapid strengthening is a distinct\npossibility in a day or two.  Thus the intensity forecast is raised\nfrom the previous one and is close to the consensus.   Although\nthere are a number of reliable models showing a higher peak\nintensity, an uncertain environment at long range leads me to a more\nconservative forecast.  It would not be surprising at all if my\nprediction ended up being too low, given the intense nature of this\neastern Pacific hurricane season.\n\nThe initial motion is close to the prevous one, 275/9.  Sergio\nshould be steered generally westward for the next two or three days\nby the subtropical ridge over Mexico.  After that time, the cyclone\nis forecast to approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a large\nmid- to upper-level trough over California, and this should lead to\na turn toward the northwest.  Similar to the previous advisory, the\ntrack guidance has shifted slightly south and west, so the official\nforecast is nudged in that direction at most time periods.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 12.3N 103.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 12.4N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 12.3N 106.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 12.0N 109.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 11.8N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 12.9N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 15.0N 117.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nConvection associated with the tropical storm has become more\nfragmented over the past 12 hours or so, and now consists of several\nbroken bands primarily over the southeastern portion of the\ncirculation.  Satellite intensity estimates have not changed much\nsince the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at\n45 kt, which is in agreement with earlier ASCAT data and a recent\nUW/CIMSS SATCON estimate of 42 kt.  The recent warming of the clouds\ntops may be associated with cooler waters caused by upwelling\nbeneath the large, slow-moving tropical storm.  Leslie, however is\nforecast to move southwestward toward somewhat warmer waters and a\nmore favorable upper-level environment during the next 2 to 3 days.\nThis conditions should allow for gradual strengthening, and the NHC\nforecast follows the intensity guidance by bringing Leslie to\nhurricane strength in about 72 hours.  Later in the period, Leslie\nis likely to move back over some of the cooler upwelled waters along\nits previous track, which could result in gradual weakening.\n\nRecent satellite fixes show that Leslie is moving west-\nsouthwestward or 240 degrees at 4 kt. The tropical storm is caught\nbetween a pair of mid-level ridges and a slow southwestward to\nsouth-southwestward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days.\nAround mid-week, a shortwave trough moving off the coast of the\nnortheastern United States is expected to help lift Leslie slowly\nnorthward at days 4 and 5, but the models have trended toward a\nsomewhat slower solution.  Despite the storm's expected slow motion,\nthe spread in the track guidance becomes fairly large by days 4 and\n5, and it appears that Leslie is likely to meander over the Central\nAtlantic for quite some time.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and\nmost of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through at least the early\npart of this week.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf\nand rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 33.8N  52.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 33.4N  53.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 32.9N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 32.5N  54.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 31.9N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 30.7N  54.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 32.4N  54.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 35.5N  53.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nInfrared and microwave satellite images indicate a continued erosion\nof Rosa's inner-core structure since the previous advisory due to\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear near 20 kt along with colder water\nbeneath the hurricane and entrainment of drier mid-level air in the\nsouthwestern quadrant. The intensity was assessed as 80 kt at 0600\nUTC based on the high-end estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT and\nSATCON, but since then the rapid erosion of the eye feature and\nstrong northeastward tilt to the vortex column noted in microwave\nimagery suggests a lower estimate of 75 kt for the advisory\nintensity.\n\nThis initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. Rosa is forecast to\ncontinue moving northward around the western edge of a deep-layer\nridge for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn toward the\nnorth-northeast on Tuesday as a mid-/upper-level trough approaches\nfrom the west. As the low- and upper-level circulations continue\nto decouple, Rosa should essentially maintain its current forward\nspeed until landfall occurs in 36-48 hours due to the cyclone not\nbeing influenced by the faster deep-layer steering flow. The new NHC\ntrack forecast is a little slower than the previous advisory track,\nand closely follows the consensus models HCCA and IVCN. A 72-hour\nforecast position continues to be provided for continuity purposes,\nbut Rosa's surface circulation is likely to dissipate before that\ntime over northwestern Mexico or southern Arizona, with the\nmid-level remnants continuing northward across the Desert Southwest\nand Intermountain West.\n\nRosa is now moving over waters colder than 25 deg C, with colder\nwater near 22 deg C ahead of the cyclone just prior to landfall.\nThe combination of increasing wind shear, cooler waters and drier\nand more stable air being entrained from the west should result in\nsteady or even rapid weakening of the cyclone until landfall occurs.\nThe official forecast follows the sharp weakening trend indciated in\nthe previous advisory, which is supported by the latest intensity\nguidance. Rosa is expected to devolve into an exposed low-level\ncenter with the associated deep convection being sheared off to its\nnorth and northeast by the time it is nearing the Baja California\ncoast on Monday.  However, it will take some time for the\ncirculation to spin down, and Rosa is still expected to bring\ntropical-storm-force winds to portions of Baja California in 36-48\nhours.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly\nspreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.\nInterests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 23.3N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 24.8N 118.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 26.5N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 30.6N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 37.2N 110.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n400 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nMicrowave and infrared satellite images, along with scatterometer\nwind data, indicate that Sergio has continued to become better\norganized, with strong convection now more concentrated near the\ncenter. However, scatterometer data showed that the inner-core wind\nfield is still rather loose and not particularly well-defined quite\nyet. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a\nDvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and\nSAB, which is supported by a 0536 UTC ASCAT pass that contained a\nfew 45-kt vectors east of the center.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. For the next 48\nhours or so, Sergio should move generally westward along the\nsouthern periphery of a large, deep-layer subtropical ridge that\nextends from Mexico westward across the eastern and central Pacific.\nBy 72 hours, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to drop\nsouthward and southeastward over the southwestern U.S. and the\nnortheastern Pacific, producing a break in the ridge which will\nallow Sergio to move toward the northwest at a slower forward\nspeed through 120 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to\nbut slightly south of the previous advisory track, and lies close\nto an average of the consensus models TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE.\n\nSergio is forecast to remain in a low-shear, warm-water, and\nhigh-moisture environment for the next 36 hours or so, during which\ntime rapid intensification is expected. In the 48- to 72-hour\nperiod, the vertical shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global\nmodels to increase from the northeast at around 25 kt, which should\nact to cap the strengthening process, and possibly even induce some\nweakening. By 96 and 120 hours, the shear is expected to decrease\nto 5 kt or less, which would favor re-strengthening. However, due\nto the uncertainty in how much Sergio's inner-core wind field will\nbe disrupted by the aforementioned strong shear, the intensity\nforecast is simply leveled off at 95 kt at 72 hours and beyond.\nThe official intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous\nadvisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model, which is\nlower than the more robust HCCA and FSSE models, which bring Sergio\nto near category 4 strength in 36-48 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 12.0N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 12.0N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 11.9N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 11.6N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 11.7N 112.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 13.0N 115.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 15.2N 118.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 17.1N 120.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nDeep convection has increased a little during the past several hours\nin a band to the southeast of the center, but the shower activity\nremains quite limited elsewhere in the circulation.  The latest\nsatellite intensity estimates and a recent ASCAT pass still support\nan initial intensity of 45 kt.  Leslie is expected to be moving into\na lower wind shear environment and over warmer SSTs during the next\nfew days.  These conditions should support some gradual\nstrengthening during that time period.  After that time, however,\nLeslie is expected to move over cooler waters, partly induced by its\nown upwelling, as it heads northeastward back over its previous\ntrack.  Accordingly, slight weakening is shown toward the end of the\nforecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\nprevious one and generally follows the consensus models, IVCN and\nHCCA.\n\nLeslie is drifting to the southwest, with the latest initial motion\nestimate being 230/3 kt.  Leslie is caught in very weak steering\ncurrents, and a continued slow southwest to south motion is expected\nduring the next few days.  Thereafter, the models show a weak\ntrough developing to the southwest of Leslie and that should cause\nthe system to move northeastward at a slightly faster pace.  The\nmodels have trended a little to the east this cycle, and the NHC\nforecast has been adjusted in that direction.  The bottom line is\nthat Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic\nthrough the forecast period.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will continue to affect Bermuda, the east coast of the United\nStates, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day\nor two.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.  Although the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they\nwill likely remain hazardous for the same locations through the\nforecast period due to Leslie's slow motion.\n\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a 1257 UTC\nASCAT pass.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 33.6N  52.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 33.2N  53.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 32.9N  53.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 32.3N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 31.6N  54.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 30.8N  54.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 33.0N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 36.0N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 AM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nRosa continues to be affected by increasing southwesterly shear and\ncooler waters.  Most of the deep convection has been eroded over\nthe southern semicircle of the circulation.  The current intensity\nestimate is reduced to 65  kt in agreement with ADT estimates from\nUW/CIMSS.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will\ninvestigate Rosa later today to provide a better estimate of the\nintensity of the system.  Since the vertical shear is predicted to\ncontinue to increase and SSTs should cool to below 23 deg C by\nMonday, additional weakening is likely before Rosa reaches the\nBaja California peninsula.  The official intensity forecast is near\nthe high end of the numerical guidance.\n\nThe hurricane is moving just east of north, or around 010/11 kt.\nThe track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous\nadvisory package.  Rosa is likely to be steered north-northeastward\nin the flow ahead of a large mid-level trough approaching from the\nwest.  This should take the center of the cyclone across Baja\nCalifornia in the Tropical Storm Warning area by Monday night.\nRosa or it's remnant should move over the Desert Southwest on\nTuesday.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous\none and roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly\nspreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.\nInterests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 24.4N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 25.9N 117.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 29.3N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 31.8N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  03/1200Z 36.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nRecent microwave data indicate that the inner core of Sergio\ncontinues to become better defined, with an eye-like feature\nevident. However, this eye feature is not yet apparent in\ngeostationary satellite imagery. Deep convection with cloud top\ntemperatures of -70 C are concentrated around the storm's center as\nwell as along a prominent banding feature on the south side. The\naverage of available satellite intensity estimates support an\nintensity of 50 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/11 kt. There continues to be no\nsignificant changes in the forecast track philosophy from the\nprevious few forecasts. For the next couple of days, Sergio\nshould move generally westward or just south of due west\naround the southern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical\nridge that extends from Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific.\nBy 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough will move southeastward\nalong and offshore the western U.S., which will erode the ridge from\nthe west. This will allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward\nthen northwestward from 48- to 96-hours with a gradual decrease in\nforward speed. Thereafter, the trough should shift eastward and low-\nto mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.\nThis pattern change should induce a more westward turn toward\nthe end of the forecast period.\n\nSergio will remain in an environment of low-shear, high-moisture,\nand over warm waters for the next 24 hours or so, which should\nresult in rapid intensification. This is in agreement with rapid\nintensification indices from the SHIPS model of 40 to 45 percent\nover the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is expected\nto develop over the storm environment and increase to 25 kt by 48\nhours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not\nweaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,\nglobal models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt by\n96 hours, but by that time the system will be moving over waters of\n26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. Based\non this, the intensity remains steady from 72- to 96-hours and then\nshows slow weakening by the end of the period. The intensity\nforecast is a little higher that the previous advisory, and is close\nto the dynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast,\nSergio is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 12.1N 105.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 12.1N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 11.8N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 11.7N 111.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 12.0N 113.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 13.6N 116.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 16.0N 119.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Latto/Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nLeslie has generally changed little in organization today.  The\ntropical storm continues to produce deep convection in a band to\nthe southeast of the center, but there is a minimal amount of\nshower activity elsewhere.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to\nabout 25 kt of northwesterly wind shear.  The initial intensity is\nagain held at 45 kt, but some of the satellite estimates suggest\nthat this could be a little generous.  The global models show the\nupper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a\nday, which combined with warmer SSTs should allow Leslie to\ngradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time,\nthe storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous\ntrack and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling.  These\nconditions should end the strengthening trend and induce some\nweakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the\nprevious one and in line with the IVCN, FSSE, and HCCA consensus\nmodels.\n\nLeslie is drifting to the southwest, with the latest initial motion\nestimate being 240/4 kt.  The storm is forecast to remain in very\nweak steering currents, and Leslie will likely drift southward to\nsouthwestward during the next few days on the east side of a\nmid-level ridge. Thereafter, a developing trough to the southwest of\nLeslie should cause the system to move northeastward at a slightly\nfaster pace.  The models continue to shift back and forth each\ncycle, which is not surprising given the weak steering.  This\nforecast is adjusted a little to the left of the previous one to\ncome into better agreement with the latest models.  The bottom line\nis that Leslie is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for\nthe next several days.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and\nmost of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two.\nThese swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\nAlthough the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely\nremain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period\ndue to Leslie's slow motion.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 33.5N  53.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 33.3N  53.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 32.9N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 32.1N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 31.3N  55.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 31.0N  54.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 33.5N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 36.5N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rosa","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nHurricane Rosa Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n \nAn Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently\ninvestigated Rosa, and found peak 700-mb flight-level winds that\nstill supported minimal hurricane intensity.  However, the\nSFMR-observed surface winds were somewhat lower, which is not\nsurprising since the system has minimal deep convection and is over\n24-25 deg SSTs.  Given that the central pressure is still fairly\nlow, 982 mb, Rosa is being maintained, perhaps generously, as a\nhurricane for this advisory.  With increasing shear and cooler\nwaters ahead for the system, weakening seems inevitable.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the latest HWRF model\nprediction, and shows Rosa weakening to a depression by the time it\nreaches the southwest United States.\n \nThe initial motion is north-northeastward, or 025/10 kt.  The track\nforecast scenario remains essentially unchanged from the previous\ncouple of advisory packages.  The flow on the eastern side of a\nlarge mid-level trough approaching from the west should steer Rosa\non a north-northeastward track for the next couple of days.  The\nofficial track forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model\nconsensus.\n \nThe wind radii have been adjusted slightly based on data from a\nrecent ASCAT scatterometer overpass.\n \nKey Messages:\n \n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n \n2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly\nspreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.\nInterests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  30/2100Z 25.2N 118.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 26.5N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 28.1N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 29.9N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/1800Z 32.3N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  03/1800Z 37.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n300 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nSatellite imagery over the past several hours as well as microwave\nand scatterometer data indicate that the center of Sergio is\nfarther south than previously analyzed. The deep convection near\nthe center has become ragged in appearance and elongated from\neast-west.  However, microwave data continues to show a well-defined\nmid-level circulation, and satellite intensity estimates are\nunanimously supporting 55 kt, which will be the initial intensity\nfor this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 260/11 kt, partially due to\nadjustment of the center farther south. Otherwise, there are no\nchanges in the forecast track philosophy from the previous advisory.\nFor the next couple of days, Sergio should move generally westward\nor just south of due west around the southern periphery of a large\ndeep-layer subtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward\nacross the eastern Pacific. By 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level\ntrough moving southeastward along and offshore of the western U.S.\nwill erode the western part of the ridge. This will allow the\ncyclone to turn west-northwestward to northwestward from 48- to\n96-hours with a gradual decrease in forward speed. Very near the end\nof the forecast period, the trough should shift eastward and low-\nto mid-level ridging should build to the northwest of the cyclone.\nThis pattern change should induce a more westward turn by 120 hours.\n\nDespite the current ragged appearance of the cyclone, the\nenvironment of low-shear, high-moisture, and warm waters are\nexpected to support a period of rapid intensification sometime\nwithin the next 36 hours or so. By 36 hours, northeasterly shear is\nexpected to develop over the storm and increase to 25 kt by 48\nhours. This should at least limit the rate of intensification if not\nweaken the cyclone slightly from 48- to 72-hours. After that time,\nglobal models indicate that the shear will lessen to under 10 kt for\nthe remainder of the forecast period. There may be a window of time\nbeginning after 72 hours where some additional strengthening could\noccur. By 96 hours, the system will then be moving over waters of\n26-27 C very near a gradient of cooler SSTs just to the north. The\ncurrent intensity forecast calls for a steadying of intensity after\nthe shear abates, then a slow weakening trend commences by the end\nof the period due to cooler SSTs. Other than a slight delay in\nSergio becoming a hurricane, the intensity forecast is essentially\nthe same as the previous forecast and remains close to the\ndynamical model consensus. Based on this intensity forecast, Sergio\nis still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 11.5N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 11.4N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 11.2N 110.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 11.4N 112.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 11.9N 114.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 13.8N 117.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 17.3N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Latto/Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nLeslie has changed little in organization over the past few hours,\nwith the convective burst previously in the southeastern quadrant\nnow in the northeastern quadrant.  Recent scatterometer data\nindicates that the current intensity is 45 kt, with those winds\noccurring in the northeastern semicircle.  The scatterometer data\nalso suggests that the radii of tropical-storm force winds has\ndecreased a little.  While Leslie continues to be affected by\nwesterly shear, the global models show the upper-level pattern\nbecoming more favorable over Leslie in about a day.  This, combined\nwith slightly warmer SSTs along the forecast track should allow\nLeslie to gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After\nthat time, the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its\nprevious track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling,\nand that should cause at least a little weakening.  The new\nintensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it\nlies above the forecast of the regional hurricane models and below\nthe forecast of the statistical-dynamical models.\n\nThe initial motion is 250/5.  Leslie is forecast to remain in weak\nsteering currents for the next 72 h, with a southwestward to\nsouthward drift expected.  Thereafter, a shortwave trough moving\nsouthward to the west of Leslie should cause a motion toward the\nnorth-northeast or northeast and an increase in forward speed.\nThere are no important changes to the guidance or to the forecast\ntrack, and the bottom line remains that Leslie is forecast to\nmeander over the central Atlantic for the next several days.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and\nmost of the Greater and Lesser Antilles for another day or two.\nThese swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\nAlthough the swells will diminish some by mid-week, they will likely\nremain hazardous for the same locations through the forecast period\ndue to Leslie's slow motion.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 33.3N  53.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 33.0N  54.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 32.4N  54.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 31.5N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 30.8N  55.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 31.0N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 34.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 37.0N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 PM PDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nAll of Rosa's associated deep convection is located within the\nnortheastern quadrant of the circulation, moving out ahead of the\ncenter due to 25-30 kt of southwesterly shear.  Subjective and\nobjective intensity estimates have decreased since the previous\nadvisory but encompass a wide range from about 45 kt to 65 kt. The\ninitial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, the average of these\nestimates and similar to the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate. Rosa's\ncenter is now over sub-24C waters, heading for waters around 21C\nalong the Baja California coast, and the shear is forecast to\nincrease further in the coming days.  As a result, Rosa is expected\nto weaken below tropical storm intensity between 24-36 hours, after\nit has reached the Baja California coast.  All of the cyclone's deep\nconvection is likely to be sheared away soon thereafter, making Rosa\na remnant low between 36-48 hours, if not sooner.  The remnant low\nshould dissipate over Arizona by 48 hours.\n\nRosa continues to move north-northeastward, or 025/10 kt.  The flow\non the eastern side of a large mid-level trough located off the\nU.S. West Coast should continue to steer Rosa north-northeastward,\nwith some acceleration beginning by Monday night.  Although there\nare still some speed differences among the models, particularly\nbetween the faster GFS and slower ECMWF, the guidance remains\ntightly clustered overall, and the new NHC track forecast is very\nclose to the multi-model consensus aids.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula on Monday, possibly\nspreading to the northern Gulf of California Monday night.\nInterests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 26.0N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 27.3N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 29.1N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 31.5N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE SONORA COAST\n 48H  03/0000Z 34.2N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n900 PM MDT Sun Sep 30 2018\n\nOverall, Sergio has changed little in organization over the past\nseveral hours.  The convective pattern is comprised of a ragged\nband wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center,\nwith the strongest convection to the north of the center.  Recent\nmicrowave data show that the mid-level circulation center seen\nearlier has lost some definition.  However, the low-level\ncirculation center seems to be becoming better defined.  The\ninitial intensity remains 55 kt based on unchanged satellite\nintensity estimates.\n\nThe initial motion remains 260/11.  For the next 36 h or so, Sergio\nshould move westward or just south of due westward around the\nsouthern periphery of a large deep-layer subtropical ridge extending\nfrom Mexico westward across the eastern Pacific.  After that time, a\nmid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and offshore\nof the western U.S. will erode the western part of the ridge. This\ndevelopment will allow Sergio turn west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward with a gradual decrease in forward speed.  The new\nforecast track is near the various consensus models and is an\nupdate of the previous track.\n\nConditions appear favorable for Sergio to rapidly intensify in the\nnext 36 h if the cyclone can become well enough organized to take\nadvantage of the environment.  This part of the intensity forecast\npresumes this will happen and is unchanged from the previous\nforecast of quick strengthening.  From 36-48 h, a burst of\nnortheasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio, which should at\nleast slow intensification.  Based on this and the shear letting up\nat 72 h, the intensity forecast is tweaked to show the peak\nintensity after the shear decreases.  After 72 h, decreasing sea\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track should cause a gradual\nweakening.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 11.6N 107.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 11.4N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 11.3N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 11.6N 113.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 12.4N 115.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 14.5N 118.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nLeslie has become a little better organized overnight, with an\nincrease in convective banding over the northern and northwestern\nportions of the circulation.  ASCAT data around 0000 UTC revealed\n40-45 kt winds over the northeastern quadrant of the cyclone and\nwith the increase in organization since that time, the initial\nintensity has been raised to 50 kt.  This is a little above the\nconsensus Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.0 (45 kt) from TAFB and\nSAB.  The shear that was affecting Leslie appears to have abated\nsomewhat and with the system forecast to move southwestward toward\nslightly warmer waters, gradual strengthening is expected during the\nnext couple of days.  Later in the period, Leslie is forecast to\nmove north-northeastward back over its previous track where cooler\nupwelled waters are likely to produce some weakening. The updated\nNHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity in 48\nto 72 hours, but remains between the dynamical model guidance and\nthe higher statistical models.\n\nLeslie continues to plod along with an initial motion estimate of\n240/4 kt.  The cyclone should move slowly southwestward to southward\nduring the next couple of days as it remains within an area of weak\nsteering currents.  After that time, a shortwave trough to the\nnorthwest of Leslie is expected to allow the tropical cyclone to\nlift slowly north-northeastward by days 4 and 5. Although the\ndynamical model guidance is in agreement on this overall scenario,\nthere is increasing cross-track (east-west) spread after 72 hours.\nThe latest run of the ECMWF has shifted westward and brackets the\nwestern edge of the guidance envelope.  The new NHC track forecast\nhas been shifted in that direction, but it is not as far left as the\nvarious consensus aids out of respect of the previous track\nforecast.  Regardless of the details of the forecast track, Leslie\nis still expected to meander over the central Atlantic through the\nremainder of this week.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie when it was a strong extratropical\nlow will continue to affect portions of the southeastern coast of\nthe United States, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and most of the Greater and\nLesser Antilles for another day or two.  These swells could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.  Although the swells will\ndiminish some by mid-week, they will likely remain hazardous for the\nsame locations through the forecast period due to Leslie's slow\nmotion.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 33.4N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 33.1N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 32.2N  55.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 31.2N  55.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 30.6N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 31.7N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 35.0N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 37.4N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nConvection has been steadily decreasing due to the combination\nof southwesterly shear of about 30 kt and cool SSTs of less than\n24 deg C. As a result, only a small patch of thunderstorms\nremains in the northeastern quadrant of Rosa's circulation. ASCAT\npasses around 0414Z and 0516Z only indicated wind speeds of 41-42 kt\nin the eastern semicircle. Assuming that some undersampling is\noccurring, the intensity has only been decreased to 45 kt for this\nadvisory. Additional weakening is expected due to a further increase\nin the vertical wind shear and decreasing ocean temperatures beneath\nthe cyclone. The official intensity forecast calls for Rosa to be\nnear 35 kt at the time of landfall later today, but it is possible\nthat more weakening could occur than currently indicated.\nRegardless, strong tropical-storm-force wind gusts will be\nwidespread across the higher elevations of the northern Baja\nCalifornia peninsula. Rosa is expected to become remnant low before\nthe cyclone reaches Arizona due to the rugged terrain of Baja and\nnorthwestern Mexico, and the continued strong wind shear.\n\nRosa is moving northeastward now, or 035/10 kt. A northeastward to\nnorth-northeastward motion is expected until and after landfall,\nwith some acceleration beginning later tonight. The latest NHC\nmodel guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official forecast\ntrack lies close to the previous track and an average of the TVCE,\nHCCA, and FSSE multi-model consensus aids.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula later today,\nespecially over higher elevations. These conditions could spread\ninto the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in\nthose locations should monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 26.7N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 28.0N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 30.1N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND NRN BAJA CALIF\n 36H  02/1800Z 32.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  03/0600Z 35.9N 112.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n300 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nSergio's convective pattern in infrared satellite imagery has waxed\nand waned since the previous advisory. A previously large, solid\ncurved band has become broken during the past couple of hours, but\nthe comma head or CDO of the cloud band has increased in size while\ncloud tops have cooled to near -80C. Passive microwave imagery\nindicates that within the comma head feature an 18-20-nmi-wide\nclosed eye has developed in the low-levels, while the mid- and\nupper-level eye remains open and ragged. Subjective intensity\nestimates remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB. However, based on the\nwell-defined, low-level eye, the intensity has been nudged upward to\n60 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is now 270/12 kt, based primarily on microwave\nsatellite fix positions. Sergio is forecast to move generally\nwestward for the next 36 hours or so, under the influence of a\nstrong, deep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. By 48\nhours, a mid- to upper-level trough moving southeastward along and\noffshore of the western U.S. is expected to gradually erode the\nwestern part of the ridge, allowing Sergio turn west-northwestward\non day 2 and move northwestward on days 3-5.  The new NHC track\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near a\nblend of the consensus models TCVA, TVCE, and HCCA.\n\nBoth the statistical and dynamical intensity models have been too\nbullish on Sergio strengthening during the past 36 hours. Although\nthe environment is quite moist with near 80 percent mid-level\nhumidity values, a pronounced dry intrusion eroding the inner-core\nconvection remains. By the time the dry air mixes out, modest\nnortherly vertical wind shear is expected to hinder development in\nthe 24-48 hour period. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is\nforecast to decrease below 10 kt, but Sergio will be moving over\ncooler waters at that time. Given the mixed environmental signals,\nthe official intensity is on the conservative side and remains well\nbelow the stronger HCCA and FSSE models, and closer to the simple\nconsensus model IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 11.5N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 11.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 11.5N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 12.0N 114.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 12.8N 116.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 14.9N 118.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 16.8N 121.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nLeslie is gradually becoming better organized.  A large band of\ndeep convection exists on the west side of the circulation and some\nfragmented bands are beginning to form on the east side.  Overall,\nLeslie appears more symmetric than it has been during the past\ncouple of days due to a decrease in wind shear.  Despite the\nimproved appearance, the satellite intensity estimates are largely\nunchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 50 kt, near the high\nend of the estimates.\n\nSince Leslie is forecast to be in a low wind shear environment\nand expected to move over slightly higher SSTs during the next\ncouple of days, slow strengthening is predicted.  Most of\nthe models show Leslie becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and\nthe NHC forecast follows suit.  By late in the week and this\nweekend, Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over\nits previous track, where it has upwelled cooler waters.  These less\nconducive oceanic conditions should cause a slow decay.\n\nLeslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a\nmid-level high, and a continued slow south to southwest motion\nis expected during the next couple of days.  Thereafter, a\ndeveloping shortwave trough to the west of Leslie should cause it to\nmove north-northeastward but only at a slightly faster pace.  The\nNHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous one to come\ninto better agreement with the latest guidance.  Regardless of the\ndetails of the forecast track, there is high confidence that Leslie\nwill meander for quite a while over the central Atlantic.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions\nof the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the\nBahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through\ntonight.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.  Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday,\nthey are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the\nGreater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 33.2N  54.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 32.7N  54.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 31.6N  55.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 30.7N  55.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 30.4N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 32.5N  55.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 35.7N  54.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 37.4N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nMost of Rosa's deep convection has been sheared northeastward\nover portions of the Baja California peninsula, Sonora, and the\nsouthwestern United States.  Locally heavy rains are already\noccurring over those areas.  Assuming a gradual weakening of the\ncyclone since the last scatterometer overpass, and blending Dvorak\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, gives a current intensity\nestimate of 40 kt.  Since the cyclone will continue to be influenced\nby strong shear, cooler waters, and then interact with land,\ncontinued weakening is likely over the next day or so.  Rosa is\nexpected to degenerate into a remnant low by the time it reaches the\nsouthwestern United States on Tuesday.\n\nThe system is moving north-northeastward, or 030/10 kt.  Rosa\nshould continue to be steered on that heading, to the east of a\nbroad mid-level trough off the California coast.  Some increase in\nforward speed is expected after Rosa's remnants move into the\nDesert Southwest.  The official track forecast remains very close to\nthe multi-model consensus.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula,  especially over\nhigher elevations.  These conditions could spread into the northern\nGulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations\nshould monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 27.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 31.3N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 34.3N 112.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  03/1200Z 37.0N 112.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n900 AM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nSergio is almost a hurricane.  Satellite images indicate that the\ncentral convection has been increasing in intensity during the past\nseveral hours, but there are still no indications of an eye in\nthat data.  Microwave imagery does show an eye feature, however.\nThe outer bands are not particularly well organized, and there are\nsome dry slots beyond the inner core.  The initial intensity is held\nat 60 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates.\n\nAs mentioned in the previous discussion, the models have been too\nbullish on Sergio strengthening during the past couple of days.\nThis could be due to the aforementioned dry slots that were not well\npredicted by both the statistical and dynamical guidance.  Looking\nahead to the next several days, the environmental conditions are\nmixed.  The wind shear and SSTs appear conducive for strengthening\nduring the next couple of days, so steady intensification is\npredicted during that time period.  However, as seen during the past\nday or two, dry air could slow the intensification rate.  Beyond a\ncouple of days, the models show a brief increase in shear and a\nsteady decrease in mid-level moisture and SSTs.  These conditions\nwill likely end the opportunity for strengthening and cause a slow\nweakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as\nthe previous one, and it lies between the usually reliable HCCA and\nIVCN consensus models.\n\nSergio is moving westward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to\nits north and northeast.  A continued westward motion is expected\nfor another day followed by a turn to the west-northwest and then\nthe northwest as the western side of the ridge weakens due to a\nlarge-scale trough near the southwestern United States.  By the end\nof the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of\nSergio, which should cause a turn back to the left.  The models are\nin very good agreement overall, and little change has been made to\nthe previous forecast track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 11.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 11.4N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 12.4N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 13.3N 116.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 15.3N 119.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 18.0N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Leslie has improved throughout the day, and\nthe system now has a ragged eye with multiple mesovorticies within\nit.  In addition, the associated convection has become more\nsymmetric this afternoon, but the cloud tops are not very cold south\nof the center.  Even though the system looks better organized, the\nsatellite intensity estimates are again unchanged.  Accordingly, the\ninitial intensity is held at 50 kt near the high end of the\nsatellite estimates.\n\nLeslie will likely strengthen gradually during the next day or\nso as it heads toward slightly warmer SSTs and remains in relatively\nlow wind shear conditions.  Most of the models show Leslie\nbecoming a hurricane on Tuesday, and the NHC forecast follows that\nguidance.  Leslie is expected to move north-northeastward back over\nits own upwelled cool waters late this week and this weekend,\nwhich should promote a gradual weakening trend.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the HCCA\nand IVCN models.\n\nLeslie continues to drift to the southwest on the east side of a\nmid-level high.  There has been no change to the track forecast\nphilosophy.  Leslie is expected to continue to move slowly southward\nto southwestward in weak steering currents during the next couple of\ndays.  Thereafter, a developing shortwave trough to the west of\nLeslie should cause it to move north-northeastward to northeastward\nat a slightly faster pace.  The guidance has shifted south and west\nthis cycle, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in those\ndirections.  Regardless of the details of the forecast track, there\nis high confidence that Leslie will meander for quite a while over\nthe central Atlantic.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions\nof the southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, the\nBahamas, and most of the Greater and Lesser Antilles through\ntonight.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip\ncurrents.  Although the swells will diminish slightly by Tuesday,\nthey are expected to increase again over the Bahamas and most of the\nGreater and Lesser Antilles late Wednesday and Thursday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 32.8N  54.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 31.9N  55.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 30.9N  55.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 30.2N  56.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 30.0N  56.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 33.3N  55.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 36.4N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 37.2N  52.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n200 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nRosa has no deep convection near its center, but there are plenty\nof rain-bearing clouds over areas well to the north and northeast of\nthe center, including the northern Baja California peninsula,\nSonora, and portions of the southwestern United States.  The\nscatterometer recently missed Rosa, but assuming a steady spin down\nsince the last overpass 12 hours ago, the advisory intensity is set\nat 35 kt. Continued weakening, due to very strong vertical shear,\ncool waters, and then interaction with land, should reduce Rosa to a\ntropical depression very soon.  Rosa is likely to degenerate into a\nremnant low over the southwestern United States tomorrow.\n\nThe cyclone continues moving north-northeastward, or 030/9 kt.  The\ntrack forecast philosophy is the same as in the previous advisory\npackage.  The flow ahead of a broad mid-level trough should advect\nRosa, or its remnant, north-northeastward until dissipation.  The\nofficial track forecast continues to follow the multi-model\nconsensus closely.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the\ncentral and northern Baja California peninsula,  especially over\nhigher elevations.  These conditions could spread into the northern\nGulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations\nshould monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 28.1N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 29.9N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  02/1800Z 32.7N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  03/0600Z 35.5N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n300 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nSergio has not strengthened like the models and NHC have predicted\nup to this point.  Although the storm continues to have a\nwell-defined curved band over the south and east portions of the\ncirculation, there are pronounced dry slots that have entrained into\nthe inner core.  Recent microwave images show a well-defined\nlow-level eye, but the mid-level structure is less organized now as\ncompared to several hours ago.  The initial intensity is again held\nat 60 kt, in agreement with an average of the Dvorak classifications\nfrom TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe intensity forecast remains challenging.  The wind shear around\nSergio is expected to be low for the next several days, besides for\na brief increase in the 24- to 48-hour time period.  These\nconditions and warm SSTs beneath the cyclone during the next few\ndays support strengthening.  However, as mentioned above, the storm\nhas been struggling with dry air entrainment and that could continue\nto plague the system.  The latest models continue to show steady\nstrengthening, and the NHC forecast does likewise.  However, this\nforecast shows a slower rate of intensification in the short term.\nBeyond a few days, a combination of slightly lower SSTs and a\ndecrease in moisture should cause a slow weakening trend.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is in best agreement with the IVCN model.\n\nSergio is moving just south of due west at 11 kt.  A westward\nmotion at about the same forward speed is expected during the next\nday or so while the storm remains on the south side of a mid-level\nridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected by late Tuesday\nfollowed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the western\nportion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale mid- to\nupper-level trough near the southwestern U.S. By the end of the\nforecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the north of\nSergio, which should cause a turn back to the left.  The models\nhave shifted to the south and west this cycle, and the NHC track\nforecast has been adjusted in those directions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 11.3N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 11.3N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 11.6N 114.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 12.4N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 15.4N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 17.8N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nSatellite imagery shows that the convective organization of Leslie\nhas changed little during the past several hours.  The eye-like\nfeature, however, has become a little more distinct and symmetric.\nThe subjective and objective intensity estimates haven't changed\nthough, and the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be a southwestward drift, or\n220/4 kt.  Leslie is forecast to continue drifting generally\nsouthwestward through the 36-hour period in relatively weak\nmid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a ridge extending\neastward from the southeast United States to near Bermuda.\nAfterwards, an amplifying mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching\nthe cyclone from the Canadian Maritimes should induce a\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward motion at an increasing forward\nspeed.  The NHC forecast is adjusted just to the left of the\nprevious forecast track beyond 36 hours to align more with the TVCN\nconsensus guidance.\n\nThe intensity forecast philosophy remains basically the same, this\nevening.  Strengthening is still expected during the next 36 hours\nand Leslie is likely to become a hurricane Tuesday tonight, as\nindicated by the statistical and multi-model intensity guidance.\nNear the 72-hour period, Leslie should begin a gradual weakening\ntrend as the cyclone moves back over cooler oceanic temperatures\nand some invading drier mid-level air, associated with the\naforementioned shortwave trough which stabilizes the surrounding\nenvironment.  The official intensity forecast is an update of the\nprevious one and is close to the IVCN and NOAA-HCCA consensus aids.\nThe forecast wind radii have been adjusted based on the RVCN\n(GFS/ECMWF/HWRF) multi-model consensus.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of\nthe southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the\nBahamas.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and\nrip currents.  Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily\nin the Bahamas Tuesday, they are expected to increase again\nWednesday and Thursday and propagate farther southward into the\nGreater and Lesser Antilles.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 32.4N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 31.3N  55.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 30.2N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 29.9N  56.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 30.6N  56.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 34.4N  55.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 37.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 37.3N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nRosa continues to lack deep convection near the center, which is\ncurrently over sea surface temperatures of 21C.  However, strong\nconvection is occurring to the northeast of the center over the\nnorthern Gulf of California and the adjacent land areas.  The\nMexican automated station at Isla Cedros reported 30 kt winds with\ngusts near 40 kt a few hours ago, and passive microwave data\nsuggests the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently moving\nonshore south of Punta Eugenia where no surface observations are\navailable.  The initial intensity is kept at 35 kt, and it is\npossible that this is generous.  Rosa should weaken as it crosses\nBaja California, but it is likely the warm water of the Gulf of\nCalifornia will maintain the system as a tropical cyclone until\nfinal landfall in northwestern Mexico.  After that landfall, Rosa\nshould quickly degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern\nUnited States on Tuesday.\n\nThe initial motion is 035/9. Rosa should move generally\nnortheastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a\nmid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific until the\ncyclone dissipates.  The dynamical models suggests the possibility\nthat the center of Rosa will reform over the Gulf of California in\nthe next 12 h, which may lead to some erratic changes in the forward\nspeed.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in that area, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the central\nand northern Baja California peninsula, especially over higher\nelevations.  These conditions could spread into the northern\nGulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations\nshould monitor the progress of Rosa.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 28.9N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 30.8N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 33.5N 113.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n900 PM MDT Mon Oct 01 2018\n\nA just-received GMI overpass indicates that Sergio has become better\norganized with formation of a well-defined eye and eyewall under a\nconvective overcast with cloud tops to -85C.  Satellite intensity\nestimates are in the 55-65 kt range, and based on the improved\nstructure, the intensity will be set at the upper end of that range.\nThus, Sergio is upgraded to a hurricane.\n\nThe intensity forecast is low confidence.  The better structure of\nSergio is now conducive for rapid intensification.  However, the\nlarge-scale models forecast northeasterly vertical shear to increase\nto 20-25 kt by 24 h, which should be strong enough to stop rapid\ndevelopment, although the guidance suggests at least slow\nstrengthening during this time.  The intensity forecast follows the\nguidance trend in calling for gradual strengthening, but there could\nbe a 12-h or so burst of rapid intensification before the shear gets\ntoo strong.  The shear should subside after about 36 h while Sergio\nis still over warm water, and the forecast shows the system becoming\na major hurricane near the 72 h point in response to the more\nfavorable conditions.  After 72 h, a combination of decreasing\nsea-surface temperatures along the forecast track and entrainment of\ndrier air should lead to gradual weakening.\n\nThe initial motion is 265/12.  As stated in the previous discussion,\na westward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during\nthe next day or so while the storm remains on the south side of a\nmid-level ridge. A turn to the west-northwest is forecast by late\nTuesday, followed by a northwestward motion on Wednesday as the\nwestern portion of the mid-level ridge erodes due to a large scale\nmid- to upper-level trough near the southwestern United States.  By\nthe end of the forecast period, a ridge is expected to build to the\nnorth of Sergio, which should cause a turn back toward the west. The\ntrack guidance has changed little since the last advisory, and the\nnew NHC track is close to both the previous forecast track and the\nconsensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 10.9N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 11.2N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 11.7N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 12.6N 117.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 13.7N 118.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 16.0N 121.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nInfrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that\nconvection has increased and become better organized around the\nwell-defined low-level circulation center. In fact, recent\nmicrowave images showed that Leslie has developed a closed, 20- to\n25-nmi wide low-level eye. Based on the presence of the distinct\nlow-level eye feature and a Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt\nfrom SAB, the cyclone's intensity has been increased to 55 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is southwestward or 220 degrees at a faster\nforward speed of 6 kt. For the next 24 h or so, Leslie is forecast\nto move slowly southwestward to south-southwestward, trapped between\na deep-layer ridge to the west and a mid- to upper-level low to the\neast. After possibly becoming stationary near the 36-h period, a\nridge to the southeast and east of Leslie is forecast to become\nhighly amplified, forcing the cyclone northward into the higher\nlatitudes through 72 h. On days 4 and 5, an approaching mid-latitude\nshortwave trough well to the north of Leslie is forecast to nudge\nthe cyclone eastward, but only slowly at forward speeds of less than\n10 kt. The new NHC forecast track has again been adjusted to the\nleft of the previous advisory track in the 36- to 72-h period, and\nis similar to but slightly east of the various consensus models.\n\nLeslie's outflow pattern has become a little more symmetrical during\nthe past 6 h, and further improvement is expected through 72 hours.\nIn addition, lightning data and satellite imagery during the past\nfew hours indicate that convection has been developing in the dry\nslot to the north and east of the main convective band, suggesting\nthe mid-level environment is finally beginning to moisten. This dry\nintrusion has been hindering the development of deep eyewall\nconvection and, thus, the lack of intensification of the cyclone.\nHowever, given the strong instability that is forecast to develop in\nthe inner-core region region due to very cold air aloft moving over\nrelatively warm waters of near 26C beneath the cyclone, along with\nincreasing outflow and mid-level moisture, slow but steady\nstrengthening seems reasonable for the next 48 hours or so. By 72 h\nand beyond, gradual weakening is expected as Leslie moves back over\ncooler oceanic temperatures and dry mid-level air from the\nmid-latitudes associated with the aforementioned shortwave trough\nonce again gets entrained into the cyclone's circulation. The\nofficial intensity forecast is just an update of the previous\nadvisory, and is similar to the weaker IVCN consensus model.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie will continue to affect portions of\nthe southeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda, and the\nBahamas.  These swells could cause life-threatening surf and\nrip currents.  Although the swells are forecast to abate temporarily\nin the Bahamas later today, they are expected to increase again on\nWednesday and Thursday, and propagate farther southward into the\nGreater and Lesser Antilles.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 31.6N  55.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 30.6N  56.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 29.9N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 30.2N  56.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 31.3N  56.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 35.0N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 37.1N  54.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 37.1N  51.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":29,"Date":"2018-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Rosa Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nSatellite imagery continues to show a lack of convection near\nthe center of Rosa this morning.  The remaining convection is\nlocated well northeast of the center, and is spreading inland over\nnorthern Mexico and portions of the Desert Southwest.  A couple of\npartial ASCAT passes revealed an area of 25-30 kt winds over the\ncentral Gulf of California, and this is the basis for reducing the\ninitial intensity to 30 kt.  The data also suggest that the\ncirculation has become elongated and that a new center may be\nforming near the northeastern coast of the Baja California\npeninsula.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 030/9 kt.  Rosa is expected to move\nnortheastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a\nmid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific. These\nsteering features should bring the center of Rosa across the\nnorthern Gulf of California and into northern Mexico this afternoon.\nSouthwesterly shear and land interaction should cause the cyclone to\ncontinue to weaken today, and Rosa is expected to dissipate over\nnorthern Mexico or southwestern Arizona by tonight.\n\nAlthough Rosa is forecast to weaken, the system is still expected\nto bring heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding to\nportions of northwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during\nthe next day or so.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy\nrainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.\nDesert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce\nlife-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and\nlandslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about\npotential rainfall in those areas, please see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 29.3N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 31.8N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n300 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nGeostationary satellite imagery indicates that Sergio continues to\nstrengthen.   The center is located within a fairly symmetric CDO\nwith cloud tops of -70 to -80 degrees C.  Earlier microwave data\nshowed a well-defined eye and inner core, but a more recent AMSU\noverpass suggests that there has been some slight erosion of the\neastern portion of the eye, possibly due to some intrusion of dry\nmid-level air.  Dvorak intensity estimates ranged from 75 to 90 kt,\nand the initial intensity has been increased to a possibility\nconservative 75 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain.  Although\nSergio has developed an inner core and strengthened during the past\n12 hour or so, the dynamical models suggest northeasterly shear\nwill increase over the hurricane today.  This is expected to temper\nthe intensification somewhat over the next 12-24 hours, however,\nmost of the guidance shows at least gradual strengthening during\nthe next day or so.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for a gradual\nincrease in wind speed over the next 36-48 hours, and is close to\nthe IVCN model consensus.  After 72 h, cooler waters and the\nentrainment of drier air is expected to cause gradual weakening.\n\nSergio is moving slightly south of due west or 265/12 kt.  The\nhurricane is currently located to the south of a mid-level ridge,\nand Sergio should continue westward today.  The global models show\nthe western portion of the ridge weakening over the next several\ndays, which should cause Sergio to turn west-northwestward, then\nnorthwestward on Wednesday. By late in the week, another ridge\nis predicted to build to the northwest of Sergio and the hurricane\nis forecast to turn back toward the west.  The overall guidance\nenvelope has changed little this cycle, and the new NHC track is\nsimilar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus\naids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 10.7N 113.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 10.9N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 11.7N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 12.7N 117.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 13.8N 119.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 15.6N 121.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 16.5N 124.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 16.7N 127.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nLeslie has generally changed little during the past several hours.\nThe storm continues to have a ragged banded eye feature with\nmultiple mesovortices within it.  Deep convection is most organized\nin a curved band that currently wraps from the northeast to\nsouthwest quadrant of the storm.  The initial intensity is held at\n55 kt, which is near the high end of the satellite estimates.\nAlthough the storm has not strengthened much during the past day or\nso, it still has an opportunity to intensify while it moves over\nslightly higher SSTs and remains in favorable atmospheric conditions\nduring the next day or two.  Beyond a couple of days, slow weakening\nseems likely as Leslie heads over SSTs cooler than 26 deg C and into\na slightly drier environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is the\nsame as the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA\nand IVCN consensus aids.  This intensity forecast lies between the\naggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower HMON and\nCOAMPS-TC models that keep Leslie below hurricane strength.\n\nThe tropical storm continues to lose latitude, with the latest\ninitial motion estimate being 215/7.  A continued slow south to\nsouth-southwest motion is forecast during the next 24 hours as the\nsystem moves in the flow on the east side of a mid-level high.\nAfter that time, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west\nand an amplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause\nLeslie to move northward to north-northeastward late this week.  By\nthe weekend, the models suggest that Leslie should turn eastward\nwhen it moves in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track\nforecast is nudged to the west to come into better agreement with\nthe latest models.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow\nand Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 30.9N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 30.1N  56.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 29.8N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 30.5N  56.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 31.9N  56.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 35.9N  56.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 37.6N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 37.3N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Rosa","Adv":30,"Date":"2018-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP202018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Rosa Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018\n900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nSatellite images and surface observations indicate that\nRosa has become an elongated trough with multiple swirls along its\naxis.  Therefore, Rosa no longer qualifies as a tropical cyclone,\nand this is the last advisory issued on this system by the National\nHurricane Center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt\nassuming some decrease in winds from the ASCAT pass last night.\n\nAlthough Rosa has dissipated, heavy rainfall and life-threatening\nflash flooding are expected to continue over portions of\nnorthwestern Mexico and the Desert Southwest during the next day or\nso.  For more information on the rainfall threat, please see\nproducts from your local NWS forecast office and Storm Summary\nproducts issued by the Weather Prediction Center at\nhttps://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 29.7N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n900 AM MDT Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Sergio continues to become better organized on\nsatellite imagery.  The hurricane has a very cold cloud-topped\ncentral dense overcast, with a developing eye, surrounded by curved\nbanding features.  The current intensity is set at 85 kt based on a\nblend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  Sergio is\nforecast to continue moving over warm waters, under moderate\nvertical shear and within a moist mid-level airmass for the next\nfew days.  Therefore, additional strengthening is likely, and Sergio\nwill probably become a major hurricane in a day or so.  The official\nintensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN.\n\nThe hurricane has been moving westward at a slightly slower pace,\nand the motion estimate is 270/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the\nnorth of the system will soon be eroding, due to a trough dropping\nin from the northwest.  This change in steering currents should\nresult in Sergio turning toward the west-northwest today followed\nby a northwestward motion in 2-3 days.  In the latter part of the\nforecast period, the ridge builds back in, and this is likely to\ncause the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the west.  The NHC\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the\ndynamical model consensus, TVCN, fairly closely.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 10.6N 114.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 11.2N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 12.2N 116.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 13.3N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 14.3N 119.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 15.9N 122.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nLeslie is almost a hurricane.  Satellite images indicate that a ring\nof deep convection now nearly surrounds Leslie's large ragged eye.\nA pair of ASCAT passes from this morning showed maximum winds around\n55 kt. Based on that data and a blend of the latest Dvorak\nestimates, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.  Leslie is\nexpected to remain over relatively warm water and in favorable\natmospheric conditions for another day or two, so continued gradual\nstrengthening is forecast during that time period.  Based on the\nimproved organization this afternoon and the model guidance, Leslie\nis forecast to reach hurricane strength tonight or early Wednesday.\nAfter a couple of days, the system is expected to move over waters\ncooler than 26 deg C, and those unfavorable oceanic conditions\ncombined with some increase in shear this weekend should cause a\nslow weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast remains\nbetween the aggressive statistical-dynamical models and the lower\nHMON and COAMPS-TC models, but this forecast is a tad higher than\nthe previous one.\n\nThe tropical storm is still losing latitude, with the latest initial\nmotion now estimated to be 205/8.  This south-southwestward\nmotion is expected to slow down tonight, and Leslie will likely come\nto a stall on Wednesday in very weak steering currents.  After that\ntime, the combination of a shortwave trough to the west and an\namplifying mid-level ridge to the southeast should cause\nLeslie to move northward on Thursday and Friday.  A turn to the\nnortheast and then east is forecast to occur by the weekend when the\nstorm moves within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track\nforecast is nudged to the south and west of the previous one to come\ninto better agreement with the latest guidance.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow\nand Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nThe initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been modified based on\nthe aforementioned ASCAT data.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 30.1N  56.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 29.7N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 29.5N  56.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 30.7N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 32.6N  56.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 36.3N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 37.2N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 37.0N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nSergio has intensified significantly today.  The eye of the\nhurricane has become better defined, and is embedded in very cold\nconvective cloud tops.  Outer banding features are also well\ndefined.  Upper-tropospheric outflow is strong over the western and\nsouthern portions of the circulation, and a little restricted to\nthe northeast.  The advisory intensity is set, probably\nconservatively, to 100 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from\nSAB.  Only modest northeasterly shear is expected to affect Sergio\nover the next few days.  That, along with warm waters and a very\nmoist middle troposphere, should be conducive for further\nstrengthening.  The official forecast is near the upper end of the\nintensity guidance model suite.\n\nThe system continues moving mostly westward, or 280/11 kt.  There\nis little change to the track forecast reasoning from the previous\ncouple of advisory packages.  A mid-level ridge to the north of\nSergio should weaken within the next 12 to 24 hours as a broad\ntrough drops in from the northwest.  These changes in the steering\nflow should cause the hurricane to turn toward the west-northwest by\nthis evening or tonight, and to begin moving northwestward on\nWednesday.  The official track forecast is is very similar to the\nprevious one and, again, follows the latest multi-model consensus.\n\nSome slight enlargements to the wind radii were made over the\neastern semicircle of Sergio based on scatterometer data.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 11.2N 115.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 12.0N 116.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 14.2N 119.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 15.2N 120.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 16.3N 123.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 16.5N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nLeslie has been trying to become a hurricane all day, but it is not\none yet.  The cloud pattern has changed very little during the past\nseveral hours and in fact, one could make the case that is less\norganized that earlier today with no eye feature trying to form at\nthis time.  However, Dvorak classifications still support an initial\nintensity of 60 kt, and this is confirmed by a recent ASCAT pass\nwith winds of at least 55 kt.  Having said that, environmental\nconditions of low shear and a warm ocean favor strengthening, and\nNHC again forecasts Leslie to become a hurricane on Wednesday and\nremain one for a couple of days.  After that time, Leslie will reach\ncooler waters and gradual weakening is anticipated.\n\nLeslie is moving very slowly toward the southwest or 220 degrees at\n3 kt while embedded within very light steering currents. Most of the\nglobal models bring an eastward-moving short wave near Leslie, and\nthis flow pattern should force the cyclone to move northward for the\nnext 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude\nwesterlies and will move eastward.  The forecast is very similar to\nthe previous one and closely follows both the corrected-consensus\nHCCA and the other multi-model aids.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase tomorrow\nand Thursday across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nThe initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been slightly adjusted\nbased on recent ASCAT data.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 29.7N  56.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 29.4N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 30.0N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 31.5N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 33.8N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 36.5N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 37.0N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 37.0N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Tue Oct 02 2018\n\nThe eye of Sergio has become obscured over the past several hours,\nindicating that the intensifying trend has levelled off.  It\nappears that northeasterly shear is affecting the inner core as the\nlatest microwave data indicate an open eyewall on the northern side\nof the hurricane.  The intensity is held at 100 kt for this\nadvisory since the overall wind speed estimates haven't changed\nmuch, although there is a fair spread in those values.  The shear\nis forecast to decrease over the next day or two, which should\nallow further strengthening of Sergio, pending any eyewall cycles.\nWeakening is expected in the longer range while the hurricane moves\nover more shallow marginally warm waters.  Only a small change has\nbeen made to the short term intensity forecast, and the rest of the\nforecast is essentially the same.\n\nSergio has turned toward the west-northwest and slowed down, as\nforecast, now 300/9.   A west-northwest or northwest track is\nexpected as a ridge weakens to the north of Sergio for the next day\nor two.  Thereafter, a strong ridge is forecast to build to the\nnorthwest of Sergio, which should force a westward motion.  As has\nbeen the case for many cyclones this season, the GFS-based guidance\nis on the right side of track guidance envelope, while the\nECMWF/UKMET are on the left side.  The consensus has remained quite\nsteady near the previous interpolated official forecast, thus\nthe new forecast is basically just an update of the previous one.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 11.8N 115.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 12.5N 117.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 13.6N 118.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 14.6N 119.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 15.5N 121.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 16.4N 123.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 16.5N 126.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 16.8N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nDeep convection surrounding the center of Leslie has become better\norganized overnight, with the development of a ragged eye in\ninfrared satellite images.  A 0552 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass\nrevealed a well-defined low-level eye with a ring of broken\nconvection surrounding it.  T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB were\n4.0 on the Dvorak scale, therefore the initial intensity has\nbeen increased to 65 kt.  This makes Leslie the sixth hurricane\nof the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.\n\nThe hurricane is forecast to remain within favorable environmental\nconditions consisting of warm water and low vertical wind shear\nover the next day or two.  These conditions should allow for some\nadditional strengthening.  After 48 hours, Leslie will be moving\nover cooler waters, which should induce gradual weakening later\nin the period.\n\nLeslie has become nearly stationary overnight, and it appears that\nthe cyclone's equatorward motion has likely come to an end.  A\nshortwave trough to the northwest of the storm and a building ridge\nto the east, are expected to allow Leslie to begin moving northward\nby tonight.  A northward motion is then expected to continue over\nthe next 2-3 days, but by the weekend Leslie is predicted to turn\neastward as a broad trough dips southward over the north Atlantic.\nThe dynamical model guidance is in relatively good agreement on this\nscenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of\nthe previous advisory.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the\nnext couple of days across the southeastern coast of the United\nStates, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.\nThese swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New\nEngland and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office as these conditions could\ncause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 29.6N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 29.7N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 30.8N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 32.8N  57.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 35.0N  57.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 37.1N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 37.0N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 37.0N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nThere has been little change to the overall organization of the\nhurricane overnight.  Recent microwave data continue to show\nthat the eyewall is open to the northwest and that there is\nsome northeast to southwest displacement of the low- and mid-level\ncenters due to northeasterly shear.  A blend of the various\nobjective and subjective satellite intensity estimates yields\nan initial intensity of 100 kt.  The global models suggest that\nthe shear currently affecting Sergio will decrease over the next 24\nto 36 hours, which should allow for strengthening.  The NHC\nintensity forecast calls for Sergio to reach peak intensity in\nabout 36 hours, and it is near the upper-end of the intensity\nguidance.  After that time, slightly cooler waters and the\nentrainment of drier mid-level air are forecast to cause gradual\nweakening, but Sergio is expected to remain a hurricane through the\nentire forecast period.\n\nSergio is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 10 kt.  The\nwestern portion of a mid-level ridge to the north of Sergio is\nexpected to weaken during the next day or so, which should cause the\nhurricane to move northwestward at a slightly slower forward speed.\nBy the weekend, another ridge is predicted to build to the\nnorthwest of Sergio, and this should force the hurricane to turn\nwestward.  The track guidance is in good agreement through 48\nhours, but there is increasing cross-track spread thereafter.  The\nupdated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for\nthe first two days, but lies between the more northern GFS solution\nand the consensus aids thereafter.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 12.3N 116.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 13.0N 117.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 15.0N 120.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 16.3N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 16.8N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":29,"Date":"2018-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nLeslie continues to slowly strengthen.  Satellite images indicate\nthat the deep convection has been gradually increasing in coverage\nand become more symmetric around the large ragged eye of the\nhurricane.  An average of the latest Dvorak classifications from\nTAFB and SAB support increasing the initial wind speed to 70 kt.\nLeslie still has a little more time to strengthen as it should\nremain over waters warmer than 26 deg C and in favorable\natmospheric conditions for about another day.  Thereafter, the\nhurricane is expected to move over progressively cooler water,\nwhich should induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity\nforecast lies closest to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.\n\nThe hurricane has come to a stall, as expected, in very weak\nsteering currents.  The combination of a shortwave trough moving\noff the New England coast and a building ridge to the southeast of\nLeslie should cause the hurricane to begin moving northward this\nevening.  This motion with an increase in forward speed should\ncontinue through Friday.  By the weekend, the hurricane is expected\nto turn to the east due to a broad trough over the north Atlantic.\nThe models remain in very good agreement, and little change was\nmade to the previous NHC forecast track.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to increase over the\nnext day or two across the southeastern coast of the United\nStates, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.\nThese swells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New\nEngland and Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from\nyour local weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 29.5N  56.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 30.0N  56.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 31.6N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 33.9N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 35.6N  57.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 36.9N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 37.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 36.7N  49.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nSergio has intensified this morning, with the eye becoming better\ndefined while embedded in very cold cloud tops.  The upper-level\noutflow is restricted to the northeast of the hurricane, but strong\nover the southern part of the circulation.  Using a blend of\nobjective and subjective Dvorak estimates, the advisory intensity\nestimate is 110 kt.  Sergio will remain over warm waters of nearly\n29 deg C,  with moderate shear and a humid mid-level air mass for\nthe next day or so.  Thus, some additional strengthening is forecast\nin the short term.  In a couple of days, slightly cooler waters and\nsome entrainment of dry air is likely to cause a gradual weakening\ntrend to begin.  The NHC forecast is at the high end of the\nintensity model guidance, and shows Sergio remaining a hurricane\nthroughout the entire forecast period.\n\nThe hurricane has turned toward the northwest, and is now moving at\nabout 305/9 kt.  This turn is probably being caused by a weakness in\nthe mid-level ridge associated with a trough nearing southern\nCalifornia.  As the trough moves away from the area, the global\nmodels predict that a ridge will rebuild to the north of Sergio in\na couple of days.  This should result in a turn toward the\nwest-northwest and west at 48 hours and beyond.  The official track\nforecast is close to the simple and corrected dynamical model\nconsensus predictions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 12.9N 117.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 13.6N 118.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 14.7N 119.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 15.6N 120.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 16.2N 122.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 16.3N 124.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 16.3N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":30,"Date":"2018-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Leslie has changed little over the\npast six hours.  Leslie continues to have a large ragged eye with\nperiodic intrusions of slightly drier air.  The hurricane still has\nwell-defined outflow over the northern semicircle.  The initial wind\nspeed is held at 70 kt based on the steady state appearance.\n\nNow that Leslie that has begun its advertised northward turn, it is\npassing over the cool wake that it presumably created during the\npast day or so, therefore, little change in strength is expected\nthrough this evening.  However, some slight strengthening is\npossible later tonight and Thursday after crossing the cool wake.\nGradual weakening then is expected to begin late Thursday when\nthe system reaches cooler waters farther to the north.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\n\nSatellite images indicate that Leslie is moving northward, and this\nmotion appears to be accelerating.  This northward motion is\nexpected to continue through Friday as the hurricane moves in the\nflow between a shortwave trough to the northwest and a mid-level\nridge to its southeast.  After that time, an eastward motion is\nforecast when a second trough approaches Leslie from the north. The\nlatest model guidance has shifted a little to the west in the short\nterm and is slightly slower and farther south at the latter forecast\npoints.  The NHC official track forecast has been adjusted\naccordingly to trend toward this guidance.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 29.9N  56.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 30.7N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 32.7N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 34.7N  57.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 36.1N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 36.8N  56.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 36.7N  53.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 36.0N  49.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Onderlinde\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nSergio's satellite presentation continues to look impressive this\nafternoon.  Several mesovortices can be identified rotating within\nthe eye.  However, the eye is somewhat obscured by upper-level\nclouds and the eyewall edge is not clearly defined.  Based on a\nblend of subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, the advisory\nintensity estimate is held at 110 kt, which is the same as in the\nprevious advisory.  Sergio should remain in quite favorable\natmospheric and oceanic conditions for the next day or two, and\nadditional strengthening is expected through Thursday.  By\nFriday, Sergio will be moving over slightly cooler sea-surface\ntemperatures and through a drier mid-level air mass, which should\ninitiate gradual weakening.\n\nSergio is currently heading toward the northwest, or 305/8 kt. By\nFriday and Saturday, the storm is forecast to slow and turn\nwest-northwestward to westward while a mid-level ridge builds to the\nnorth and northwest of the hurricane.  The official track forecast\nlies close to the equally weighted dynamical model consensus, TVCN.\n\nIt is of interest to note that a small disturbance currently\nlocated a few hundred n mi to the west-southwest of Sergio is\nexpected to be drawn into the larger circulation of the hurricane\novernight.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 13.3N 117.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 14.1N 118.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 15.2N 120.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 16.1N 122.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 15.8N 124.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 15.6N 127.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 16.4N 129.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":31,"Date":"2018-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nIt is difficult to add more to the discussion about a cyclone that\nhas moved very little during the past few days and has not changed\nsignificantly in structure either. Leslie's cloud pattern is\nnot very impressive with a large ragged-eye feature (if you can\ncall that an eye) surrounded by weaker convection than earlier\ntoday. Although Dvorak numbers are lower tonight, we can still hold\nthe intensity at 70 kt in this advisory. Most likely, the convection\nwill reinvigorate tonight, but no important changes in intensity are\nanticipated during the next 24 hours or so. A weakening trend is\nexpected thereafter as the cyclone reaches cooler waters.\n\nLeslie has begun to move northward at about 7 kt, and most likely\nthe cyclone will continue on that track for the next two days. By\nthen, Leslie will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and this\nflow will force the cyclone to make a sharp turn to the east. Track\nmodels are in remarkably good agreement with the initial northward\nturn and with eastward turn.  However, during the last portion of\nthe forecast models diverge, and the confidence in the track\nforecast is not very high.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 30.6N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 32.0N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 34.2N  57.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 36.0N  57.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 37.0N  57.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 36.5N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 36.5N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 35.5N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Wed Oct 03 2018\n\nSergio is quite the sight tonight over the eastern Pacific with a\nlarge central dense overcast and mesovortices observed within the\nwell-defined eye.  Subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB both\nsupport a slightly higher initial wind speed of 115 kt on this\nadvisory, which is a good compromise between lower microwave\nestimates but higher ADT values.  Notably, Sergio is the record most\n8th category 4 hurricane of the 2018 eastern Pacific season-\nbreaking the old record of 7 set in 2015. Reliable records in the\neastern Pacific for major hurricanes go back to 1971.\n\nFurther strengthening is possible during the next day or so while\nthe shear is forecast to remain low and the water is quite warm.\nAfter that time, a combination of cooling waters and higher shear\nshould generally cause Sergio to weaken.  This will probably be an\nunsteady process, however, since eyewall cycles are also likely over\nthe next few days.  Overall, the hurricane should be on a weakening\ntrend, and that is the NHC forecast, very similar to the previous\none, and a bit higher than the model consensus.\n\nSergio is moving northwest or 315/8.  This motion should gradually\nbend toward the west over the next day or two as the steering flow\nchanges from a ridge near Mexico to a building ridge to the\nnorthwest of the hurricane.  Sergio could turn to the northwest\nearly next week as the hurricane comes under the influence of\na deepening trough over the far eastern Pacific and southwestern\nUnited States. The model guidance is in excellent agreement during\nthe next few days, and no significant changes were required to the\nprevious forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 13.8N 118.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 14.6N 119.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 15.5N 120.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 15.9N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 15.9N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 15.6N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 15.8N 128.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":32,"Date":"2018-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nLeslie has shown no appreciable changes in its structure during the\npast several hours, and it continues to be a little thin on\nconvection within its eyewall.  Another more impressive band of\nconvection extends nearly more than 120 n mi northwest of the\ncenter of the ragged eye.  The initial intensity remains 70 kt for\nthis advisory, mainly based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from\nTAFB and SAB and an earlier SATCON estimate.  Leslie's center has\nreached sea surface temperatures of 26 degrees Celsius, and these\nmarginal water temperatures are likely to cause a gradual decrease\nin the cyclone's winds during the next several days.  The new NHC\nintensity forecast is mainly just an update to the previous\nforecast, largely following the HCCA guidance and the ICON\nintensity consensus.\n\nLeslie continues to move northward, or 350/7 kt, between a\nshortwave trough south of Nova Scotia and a mid-level ridge over\nthe central Atlantic.  This northward motion should continue for\nthe next 36 hours before Leslie becomes trapped between two\nmid-level highs and is isolated from the mid-latitude westerlies to\nthe north, thus causing its forward motion to nearly stall by 48\nhours.  By days 3 through 5, Leslie should feel enough influence\nfrom the westerlies and an approaching cold front to cause it to\nmove a bit faster toward the east or east-southeast over the north\nAtlantic.  Like the intensity forecast, no major changes were\nrequired to the official track forecast, which is merely an update\nto the previous NHC prediction.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 31.4N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 33.0N  57.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 35.1N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 36.3N  58.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 36.8N  57.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 36.3N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 35.5N  51.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 34.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nSergio's intensity is estimated to have increased just a little\nmore this morning, and it remains a powerful category 4 hurricane.\nSubjective Dvorak estimates are T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and T6.0/115\nkt from SAB, and the initial intensity is raised to 120 kt, which\nis a blend of these numbers and very close to the latest objective\nADT estimate.  Sergio's maximum winds are expected to change little\nover the next 12-24 hours, and the hurricane's intensity could very\nwell be modulated by difficult-to-forecast internal processes such\nas eyewall replacement cycles.  After 48 hours, an increase in\nshear and gradually cooling sea surface temperatures should result\nin some weakening, especially when Sergio moves more slowly at the\nend of the forecast period and possibly upwells some cooler water\nfrom below.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is nudged downward\nduring the first 48 hours to follow the latest consensus aids, but\nno changes were made to the previous forecast beyond 48 hours.\n\nThe hurricane's initial motion is northwestward, or 320/7 kt, with\nSergio located along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level\nridge extending westward from Mexico.  This ridge is expected to\nbuild westward and connect to another mid-level ridge located near\nthe central Pacific Ocean, forcing Sergio to turn westward, or even\nsouth of due west, between 36-72 hours.  By days 4 and 5, a large\ntrough near the west coast of the United States should have greater\ninfluence, causing Sergio to slow down and turn northward by the\nend of the forecast period.  The track guidance is tightly\nclustered for much of the forecast period, although a notable\nsouthward shift among the guidance, especially from the ECMWF,\nrequired a bit of a southward shift in the official forecast as\nwell.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 14.4N 118.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 15.1N 119.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 15.8N 121.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 16.0N 122.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 15.8N 123.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 15.5N 126.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 16.0N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":33,"Date":"2018-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nLeslie continues to have an inner area of convection near the\ncenter, with a larger convective band present about 120 n mi from\nthe center and additional banding in the northwestern quadrant.\nSince the last advisory, the central convection has become less\nsymmetric and the eye has become less defined.  Based on this and\nthe latest satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity is\nnudged downward to 65 kt.  While the vertical shear should remain\nlight through the forecast period, the forecast track takes the\ncenter away from 26C sea surface temperatures and over 24-25C\ntemperatures, and this should cause a gradual weakening for the\nnext several days.  Since there is little change in the guidance,\nthe new intensity forecast is again an update of the previous\nforecast.\n\nThe initial motion is now 355/8.  In the short term, Leslie will be\nsteered northward with some increase in speed between a mid-level\nridge over the central Atlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough\nseen in water vapor imagery north of Bermuda.  A decrease in\nforward speed should occur from 24-36 h as the trough moves south\nand a second ridge develops to the west of the tropical cyclone.\nBeyond 48 h, Leslie is expected to move eastward to\neast-southeastward at a faster forward speed along the southern edge\nof the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance generally\nagrees with this scenario, although some spread in both direction\nand speed appears by 120 h.  The new track forecast is similar to\nthe previous forecast and is mostly a blend of the TVCN and HCCA\nconsensus models.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles. These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 32.5N  57.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 34.1N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 35.8N  58.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 36.6N  58.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 36.8N  56.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 36.0N  53.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 35.0N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 33.5N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nSergio remains a strong hurricane this morning, with subjective\nDvorak estimates range from 5.5 (102 kt) to 6.5 (127 kt).  While\nsome slightly drier air has been ingested into the eyewall, cloud\ntop temperatures have cooled recently and Sergio appears poised to\nonce again close off this dry air channel.  Based on these data, the\ninitial intensity is held at 120 kt.  The intensity forecast is\nmostly a continuation of the previous advisory, but is slightly\nlower after 24 hours to reflect a blend of HCCA and other consensus\naids. Vertical wind shear from GFS/SHIPS is forecast to remain at or\nbelow approximately 10 kt through 48 hours before increasing to\nabove 15 kt by Saturday. The primary limiter on Sergio's intensity\nappears to be SSTs which will drop off gradually, especially by the\nend of the forecast.\n\nSergio is continuing to move northwestward around the mid-level\nridge which extends into the Pacific off of Mexico.  The initial\nmotion is 320/8 kt.  Objective track guidance is in fairly good\nagreement on a gradual turn toward the west tonight and Friday in\nresponse to a second ridge which builds in from the west.  Guidance\nremains in decent agreement on Sergio then turning back\nnortheastward by the end of the forecast period as this ridge lifts\nnorthward and a highly-amplified mid-level trough digs into western\nNorth America.  The official track forecast is very similar to the\nprevious advisory through day 4 with a small shift eastward\nthereafter to reflect a slightly earlier northeast turn in the\nguidance.  This track philosophy is supported by essentially all of\nthe ECMWF/GFS ensemble members as well.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 15.0N 119.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 15.6N 120.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 16.0N 122.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 15.7N 124.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 15.6N 126.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 16.3N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 17.9N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Onderlinde/Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":34,"Date":"2018-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nLeslie has changed little in convective structure today.  Visible\nimagery shows occasional appearances of an eye inside an area of\ncentral convection, with a complex of outer bands wrapping around\nthis inner feature.  Infrared imagery, though, suggests that the\nconvection is relatively shallow.  Despite the lack of change in the\nconvective pattern, scatterometer data shows there have been\nsignificant changes in the wind structure.  The strongest winds are\nnow in a band about 90-100 n mi from the center, with the winds in\nthe inner core being notably weaker.  This suggest the possibility\nthat Leslie is trying to undergo an eyewall replacement, albeit one\nwith a very large outer eyewall.  Based on the scatterometer data\nand slightly decreased satellite intensity estimates, the initial\nintensity is reduced to 60 kt.\n\nThere is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy, the\nintensity forecast guidance, or the intensity forecast.  While the\nvertical shear should remain light through the forecast period, the\nforecast track takes the center away from 26C sea surface\ntemperatures and over 24-25C temperatures, and this should cause a\ngradual weakening for the next several days.  There are major\nchanges to the initial and forecast wind radii based on the\nscatterometer data and the analyzed initial size.\n\nThe initial motion is 355/10.  In the short term, Leslie will be\nsteered northward between a mid-level ridge over the central\nAtlantic and a mid- to upper-level trough seen in water vapor\nimagery north of Bermuda.  A decrease in forward speed should occur\nfrom 24-36 h as the trough moves south and a second ridge develops\nto the west of the tropical cyclone.  Beyond 36 h, Leslie is\nexpected to move eastward to east-southeastward at a faster forward\nspeed along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies.\nOverall, the new forecast track is close to the previous track\nthrough 48 h, then a little north of the old track after that time.\nHowever, there is an increased spread in the guidance in both the\ntrack and the forward speed near the end of the forecast period, and\nconfidence is decreasing for this part of the forecast.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 33.3N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 34.9N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 36.1N  58.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 36.8N  57.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 36.7N  55.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 36.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 34.5N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 32.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nSergio remains an impressive hurricane. Although the cloud pattern\nis still symmetric and well organized, the eye has become ragged and\ncloud filled at times. The current satellite intensity estimates\nrange from 102 to 127 kt, and the initial intensity is set to 115 kt\nbased on a blend of these data. The environmental conditions along\nSergio's future path are expected to gradually become less favorable\nduring the next several days, with decreasing mid-level humidities,\ncooler SSTs, and a slight increase in wind shear. In response, all\nof the models show a gradual weakening trend through the period, and\nthe NHC forecast does as well. This forecast lies near the intensity\nconsensus aids and is largely an update of the previous one.\n\nThe hurricane is still moving to the northwest at 8 kt. A gradual\nturn to the left, or west, is expected during the next couple of\ndays as a mid-level ridge builds to the north-northwest of Sergio.\nLate this weekend, a decrease in forward speed is expected as the\nridge retreats in response to a large trough over the southwestern\nUnited States. This change in the steering pattern should cause the\ncyclone to turn northeastward by the end of the forecast period. The\nonly notable change in the track forecast is a sharper northward and\nnortheastward turn at days 4 and 5, to come in better agreement with\nthe latest consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 15.5N 119.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 15.9N 120.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 16.1N 121.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 15.9N 123.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 15.7N 126.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 16.8N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 18.3N 126.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":35,"Date":"2018-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nLeslie lacks an inner core and now consists of a vigorous large\ncirculation with small outer bands of shallow to moderate\nconvection. Satellite intensity estimates have continued to yield a\nlower intensity, and the winds have been reduced to 55 kt in this\nadvisory based on a recent ASCAT pass. The shear does not appear to\nbe a problem for Leslie, and the cyclone is forecast to be moving\nover SSTs which appear to not be cool enough to result in\nsignificant weakening. In fact, the average of the intensity\nguidance suggests that Leslie basically will be a 50-kt cyclone\nthrough the forecast period and so does the NHC forecast.\n\nLeslie is moving northward or 350 degrees at 10 kt steered by the\nsoutherly flow on the western edge of the subtropical ridge. In\nabout 24 to 36 hours, the storm will encounter the mid-latitude\nwesterlies, and this flow pattern will force Leslie to make a sharp\nturn to the east and even to the east-southeast with no change in\nforward speed.  Track guidance is in extremely good agreement with\nthis solution for the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the models\nvary significantly in speed, but since the cyclone will be embedded\nin the westerlies, the NHC forecast maintains the eastward\nprogression of Leslie as indicated in the previous forecast.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These\nswells will also begin to increase near the coasts of New England\nand Atlantic Canada on Friday.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 34.9N  57.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 36.2N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 37.2N  57.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 37.5N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 37.5N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 36.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 34.5N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 33.0N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Thu Oct 04 2018\n\nSergio's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat since the previous\nadvisory, with cloud tops warming and the eye becoming more ragged\nand less distinct. The initial intensity is reduced to 110 kt based\non a blend of the latest objective and subjective Dvorak estimates.\nSergio is expected to steadily weaken for the next 48 hours while\nmoving into a drier and more stable environment. By then, most of\nthe guidance suggests little change from 48-72 hours before the\nshear increases by the end of the period and SSTs cool to between\n26C and 27C, which should again result in weakening. The new NHC\nintensity forecast is lower than the previous one during the first\n48 hours to account for the observed weakening and the trend in the\nguidance, but is similar after that time. This prediction is close\nto or a bit above the latest HCCA intensity consensus aid.\n\nSergio has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an\ninitial motion estimate now 305/07. A mid-level ridge building to\nthe northwest of Sergio will steer the hurricane toward the west and\neven toward the west-southwest during the next 36 to 48 hours. After\nthat time, an amplifying longwave trough over western North America\nwill erode the ridge and cause Sergio to recurve, with a faster\nnortheastward motion shown by day 5. The new NHC track forecast has\nbeen adjusted to the south of the previous one from 24 to 48 hours,\nfollowing the trend of the latest consensus aids, which are showing\na more equatorward motion during this time. At days 3 through 5, the\nNHC track is largely an update of the previous one, and lies between\nthe faster GFS and the slower ECMWF models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 15.9N 120.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 16.0N 121.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 15.6N 123.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 16.0N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":36,"Date":"2018-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nLeslie's structure has evolved somewhat just within the past 6\nhours.  Deep convection has redeveloped near the low-level center,\nalthough it is displaced a bit to the north due to some southerly\nshear.  The cyclone's circulation remains quite large, and earlier\nASCAT data indicated that the radius of maximum winds is about\n90-100 n mi away from the center.  Since there is some inner-core\nconvection again, the initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the\nASCAT data.\n\nLeslie has gained some speed and has turned toward the\nnorth-northwest, now with an initial motion of 345/12 kt.  A\ngeneral northward motion should continue for the next 12-24 hours,\nbut then Leslie will reach the mid-latitude westerlies and make an\nabrupt turn toward the east by 36 hours.  After that time, Leslie\nis expected to make some significant eastward progress, although\nthe global models are showing several shortwave troughs in the\nwesterlies imparting a southeastward motion on Leslie by days 4 and\n5.  In fact, some of the models have shifted significantly\nsouthward by the end of the forecast period, leaving the previous\nofficial forecast near the northern edge of the guidance envelope.\nDue to this shift, the new NHC track prediction has been adjusted\nsouthward on days 3-5, although it does not yet show as much\nsouthward motion as indicated by the normally reliable ECMWF, HCCA,\nand TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nLeslie doesn't appear to have to contend with much shear during the\nnext 3 days or so, but with such a large wind field mixing the\nocean around it, marginal sea surface temperatures are likely to\nkeep the intensity steady.  By days 3 and 4, an increase in shear\ncould cause some slight weakening.  The models are in very good\nagreement in showing little to any change in Leslie's intensity\nduring the next 5 days, and that is largely what is indicated in\nthe NHC forecast.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These\nswells will also increase near the coasts of New England and\nAtlantic Canada later today.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 35.9N  58.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 36.9N  58.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 37.4N  57.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 37.4N  55.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 37.0N  53.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 35.7N  49.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 33.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 31.5N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nSergio's eye has cooled somewhat during the past few hours, but\nthere have been no significant changes to the surrounding deep\nconvection.  Despite that observation, all available intensity\nestimates have fallen to between 100-105 kt, and the advisory\nintensity is therefore set at 105 kt.  The gradual weakening trend\nSergio has been on is expected to continue for the duration of the\nforecast period as the hurricane moves toward slightly cooler\nwaters and into a drier, more stable environment.  An increase in\nshear by days 4 and 5 should also help the weakening process along.\nThe updated NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the\nprevious one and is close to the intensity consensus, HCCA, and\nFlorida State Superensemble.\n\nSergio has continued to turn to the left and is now moving\nwest-northwestward, or 290/7 kt.  Northerly flow behind a mid-level\ntrough that will swing across the Baja California peninsula will\nlikely push Sergio west-southwestward by 24 hours, and the NHC\nforecast continues to reflect that scenario.  After 48 hours, a\nbreak in the ridge left behind by the trough should allow Sergio\nto turn toward the north by days 3-4.  Another shortwave trough is\nthen expected to cause a northeastward acceleration by the end of\nthe forecast period.  The GFS and ECMWF, along with the other\nmajor track models, have come into better agreement on this\nacceleration by day 5, and the new official forecast is therefore a\nlittle faster than the previous one at that time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 16.0N 121.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 15.7N 123.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 15.4N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 16.3N 126.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":37,"Date":"2018-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nThe structure of Leslie has changed little since the last advisory,\nwith a cluster of convection just north of the low-level center and\na second cluster well to the southeast of the center.  The initial\nintensity is held at 55 kt based mainly on continuity from earlier\nscatterometer data, but it is possible that this is a little\ngenerous.  It should be noted that overall, Leslie has lost some\norganization since this time yesterday due to the disappearance of\nthe eye and an overall decrease in convective banding.\n\nLeslie appears to be slowing its forward speed, with the initial\nmotion now 345/8.  A turn to the north and a slower forward speed\nare expected during the next 12 h, followed by a turn toward the\neast-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  A general motion toward the east-southeast\nor southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast\nperiod.  As noted in the previous advisory, there has been a\nsouthward shift in the guidance, and the new forecast track is again\nshifted a little to the south of the previous track.  However, it\nlies to the north of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.\n\nThe forecast track takes Leslie over cooler waters around days 2-3,\ninto increasing shear around days 3-4, and over warmer water with\ndecreasing shear around days 4-5.  However, the structure of Leslie\nis not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity either up\nor down.  Thus, the intensity forecast follows the trend of the\nprevious forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening for\n48-72 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the southeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, and the Greater and Lesser Antilles.  These\nswells will also increase near the coasts of New England and\nAtlantic Canada later today.  Please consult products from your\nlocal weather office as these conditions could cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 36.2N  58.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 36.8N  58.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 37.1N  56.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 36.9N  54.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 36.5N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 35.0N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 33.0N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 31.0N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nGOES-16 images and a 1054 UTC ATMS microwave overpass indicate\nthat Sergio's 25 n mi eye has become a bit ragged this morning, and\nhas continued to cool.  Despite the eye's irregularity, the inner\ncore convection is still intact and is producing very cold (-76C)\ncloud tops.  Primarily due to the eye adjustment temperature,\nhowever, the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates,\nas well as a recent SATCON analysis, have again decreased to 95-100\nkt, and the initial intensity is subsequently lowered to 100 kt.\n\nAlthough due to the possibility of unpredicted inner core structure\nchanges in the short term which could cause Sergio to strengthen\nagain, the current weakening trend is expected to continue through\nday 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing oceanic temperatures and\ninto a stabilizing surrounding atmosphere.  The statistical\nintensity guidance as well as the large-scale models show increasing\nsouthwesterly shear entering the picture after 72 hours.  This\nshould also aid in the forecast weakening trend.  The official\nforecast is just an update of the previous one and follows the\nNOAA-HCCA consensus and is just above the Florida State\nSuperensemble.\n\nSergio is moving a little left of the previous 6-hr motion...now\nwestward, or 280/7 kt.  A gradual turn toward the west-southwest\nduring the next 36 hours is expected as high pressure located\nnorth-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands builds to the north of\nSergio.  Over the weekend, a decrease in forward speed and a turn\ntoward the northwest is forecast as the aforementioned mid-level\nhigh retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over the\nsouthwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond the\n72 hour period, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow\nshould induce a northeastward accelerated motion through the\nremaining portion of the forecast.  The NHC forecast is adjusted a\nlittle toward the south of the last advisory through 72 hours to\nagree more with the various consensus models, but is quite similar\nin motion and forward speed beyond that period.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 15.9N 121.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 15.5N 123.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 15.2N 125.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 15.3N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 21.5N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":38,"Date":"2018-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nLeslie is currently maintaining a small central convective feature\nand an outer convective band in the southeastern semicircle.  The\nvarious satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little, so\nthe initial intensity is nudged downward to 50 kt.  This is still a\nlittle above the estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite\nconsensus.  While no data was available from the inner core,\nscatterometer overpasses this morning suggests that Leslie has\nchanged little in size since last night.\n\nLeslie has now slowed its forward motion and is starting to turn\nmore eastward, with an initial motion of 030/3.  A turn to the east\nis expected during the next 24 h, followed by a turn toward the\neast-southeast by 36 h as Leslie encounters the southern edge of the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  A general motion toward the east-southeast\nor southeast should then continue for the remainder of the forecast\nperiod.  The latest guidance again shifted southward, and the new\nforecast track, which is in best agreement with the TVCN consensus\nmodel, is shifted to the south of the previous track\n\nThe forecast track again takes Leslie over cooler waters around day\n2, into slightly stronger shear around day 3, and over warmer\nwater with decreasing shear around days 4-5.  However, the structure\nof Leslie is not currently conducive for rapid changes in intensity\neither up or down.  Thus, the intensity forecast, which has only\nminor tweaks from the previous forecast, follows the trend of the\nprevious forecast and the guidance in showing gradual weakening near\n48 h, followed by slight intensification near 96-120 h.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the eastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic\nCanada. Please consult products from your local weather office as\nthese conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 36.2N  58.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 36.7N  57.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 36.7N  55.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 36.4N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 35.8N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 34.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 31.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 30.0N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":26,"Date":"2018-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nThis afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Sergio has become\na little better organized.  Eyewall cloud temperatures have once\nagain cooled, and the ragged, cloud-filled eye has warmed during the\npast 6 hours.  Accordingly, the subjective and objective T-numbers\nsupport increasing the initial intensity to 105 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nAs mentioned in this morning's discussion, unforeseen short term\ninner-core structure changes could cause some intensity\nfluctuations.  Since the environment is forecast to remain favorable\nduring the next 24 hours or so, little change in strength is\nforecast, and again, the cyclone could become a little stronger than\nreflected in the forecast.  Beyond this period, gradual weakening is\nexpected through day 5 as Sergio moves toward decreasing sea-surface\ntemperatures and into a more stable surrounding environment.  The\nDecay-SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance, as well as the large-scale\nmodels, show increasing southwesterly shear disrupting Sergio's\noutflow pattern after 72 hours.  The intensity forecast is similar\nto the previous package, and is just above the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN\nconsensus models and below the statistical intensity aids.\n\nSergio's motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt\nwithin the mid-level steering flow produced by a building high\npressure system located north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. By\nearly next week, a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the\nnorthwest to north-northwest is forecast as the aforementioned\nmid-level high retrogrades in response to an amplifying trough over\nthe southwestern United States and Baja California peninsula. Beyond\nday 3, increasing southwesterly mid-tropospheric flow should induce\na northeastward accelerated motion through day 5.  The NHC forecast\nis again adjusted south of the last advisory through 48 hours, and\nis close to the various multi-model consensus guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 15.7N 122.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 15.3N 123.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 14.9N 124.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 14.8N 125.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 16.7N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 18.9N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 22.0N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":39,"Date":"2018-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nLeslie's cloud pattern consists of a small ring of shallow to\nmoderate convection embedded within a large and vigorous\ncirculation. Dvorak classifications allow me to keep the same\nintensity, and in fact, ASCAT data just came in with a few 50-kt\nwind vectors. So the initial intensity remains at 50 kt in this\nadvisory.  Leslie will not encounter any hostile shear, but the\ncyclone will move over a few patches of warm and cool waters.  The\nguidance shows some minor fluctuations in the cyclone intensity,\nmost likely due to the aforementioned SST variations along the\ntrack, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast.\n\nLeslie is moving toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 6 kt.\nThe cyclone is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow,\nwhich is being modulated by passing shortwaves.  This flow pattern\nis expected to persist and should steer Leslie eastward and\neast-southeastward through the next 5 days.  Although the track\nguidance is not as clustered as in previous days, most of the models\nagree with the eastward motion of the cyclone, but vary in speed. It\nappears that stubborn Leslie will be with us for several more days.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the eastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic\nCanada. Please consult products from your local weather office as\nthese conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 36.6N  57.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 37.0N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 37.0N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 36.5N  51.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 36.0N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 34.0N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 31.0N  41.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 29.0N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":27,"Date":"2018-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Fri Oct 05 2018\n\nSergio has maintained a 25-30-nmi wide eye this evening, and a ring\nof cold cloud tops has cooled around the well-defined eye. Satellite\nintensity estimates range from T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB to\nT5.9/122 kt from ADT and a T6.0/115 kt NHC objective T-number, so\nthe intensity has been bumped up to 110 kt for this advisory.\nUpper-level outflow and the overall convective pattern have both\nimproved since the previous advisory while Sergio has lost latitude\nand moved over warmer waters.\n\nThe motion is now southwestward, or 235/06 kt. Sergio's recent\nsouthwestward motion is forecast to be short lived, with a return to\na west-southwestward to westward motion expected within the next 12\nhours. The deep-layer ridge to the north of Sergio is forecast to\nbecome more narrow due to a passing shortwave trough, but it is\nbasically expected to remain intact. This feature will steer the\nhurricane slowly westward through Sunday. By Monday, however, a\nstronger trough is forecast by the global models to drop southward\noff the coasts of California and Baja California, causing a\nsignificant weakening and erosion of the western portion of the\nridge. This is expected to result in Sergio turning slowly\nnortheastward on Monday, and accelerate on days 4 and 5. The new NHC\nforecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies\nclose to consensus models TVCE and NOAA-HCCA.\n\nOther than very brief intrusions of dry mid-level air and possible\nupwelling beneath the hurricane due to its slow forward speed, there\ndo not appear to be any other negative factors that would\nsignificantly disrupt Sergio's intensity for the next 36-48 hours.\nBy 72 hours and beyond, however, increasing southwesterly vertical\nwind shear is expected to induce a steady weakening trend after the\ncyclone begins accelerating toward the northeast, and on days 4 and\n5 passing over the cold wake left behind by former Hurricane Rosa.\nThe new official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one,\nand is near an average of the NOAA-HCCA and IVCN consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 15.3N 122.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 15.0N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 14.7N 124.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 14.8N 125.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 15.4N 126.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 17.1N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 19.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":40,"Date":"2018-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nLeslie is producing a cluster of deep convection near its center of\ncirculation and a far-reaching band that curls around the eastern\nside of the expansive circulation.  The maximum winds are still\nestimated to be 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT pass.  Leslie's\nfuture intensity will largely be limited by a less-than-ideal\nthermodynamic environment, with the center moving over water\ntemperatures of 24-25 degrees Celsius within its own cold wake\nduring the next 48 hours.  Some weakening is anticipated during that\nperiod, and the NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus and\nHCCA guidance.  After 48 hours, some restrengthening is possible\nwhen Leslie reaches some warmer waters, although increasing\nwesterly shear is likely to temper the amount of intensification.\n\nLeslie's current motion is northeastward, or 045/7 kt.  The cyclone\nis becoming increasingly embedded within the mid-latitude\nwesterlies, and these winds, with the assistance of a couple of\nshortwave troughs, are expected to push Leslie toward the east and\nsoutheast throughout the forecast period.  The one notable model\nanomaly is the ECMWF, which shows Leslie becoming more separated\nfrom the mid-latitude flow and moving more slowly than shown in the\nother models on days 3 through 5.  Even with that model being an\noutlier, the rest of the guidance has sped up a bit, pulling the\nconsensus aids eastward.  This resulted in the new NHC track\nforecast being a little faster than the previous one on days 4 and\n5.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the eastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic\nCanada.  Please consult products from your local weather office as\nthese conditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 37.2N  56.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 37.3N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 37.1N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 36.5N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 35.7N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 33.4N  42.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 30.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 28.5N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":28,"Date":"2018-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nSergio has changed little in structure since the last advisory.  It\nstill has a 25-30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective tops,\nand with not much change in intensity estimates, the estimated\nmaximum winds remain 110 kt.  Sergio's intensity is not likely to\nchange much during the next day or two, although some slight\nweakening is possible as the hurricane's speed slows down and it\nupwells some colder water from below, or due to possible internal\nstructural changes.  More definitive weakening is anticipated by\ndays 4 and 5 due to an increase in westerly and southwesterly\nshear and the hurricane reaching colder waters.  The NHC intensity\nforecast remains close to a blend of the ICON consensus and the HCCA\nmodel.  However, the statistical-dynamical models remain a bit\nhigher, and it is possible that Sergio won't lose quite as much\npunch during the next several days as is indicated by the official\nforecast.\n\nSergio continues to dive southwestward with an initial motion of\n235/7 kt.  A shortwave trough swinging across the Baja California\npeninsula will bypass Sergio during the day, leaving a weakness in\nthe ridge that will allow the hurricane to begin making a sharp\nnorthward and then northeastward turn during the next 24-72 hours.\nAnother shortwave trough forecast to dig southward off the\nCalifornia coast will then cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward\non days 4 and 5.  Notable changes in this forecast update include a\nslightly wider turn from 24-72 hours, and more spread in the model\nspeeds once Sergio accelerates toward the Baja California\npeninsula.  As is usually the case in these scenarios, the ECMWF is\nmuch slower than the other models, and because of that, the new NHC\nforecast is a bit slower than the previous one, especially on day 5.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 14.9N 123.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 14.4N 125.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 15.2N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 16.9N 126.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":41,"Date":"2018-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nThe central convection associated with Leslie has become better\norganized this morning, with conventional satellite imagery showing\na tightly curved band and recent microwave imagery showing a\nmid-level eye.  However, the microwave data also suggests the\nmid-level eye is located to the southeast of the low-level center.\nIt is also not known whether there is an inner wind maximum\nassociated with this feature.  Satellite intensity estimates are\nmostly in the 45-55 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 50\nkt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 080/8.  Leslie is now in or near the\nsouthern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and with the\nassistance of a couple of shortwave troughs, these are expected to\npush Leslie toward the east and southeast throughout the forecast\nperiod.  Despite general agreement on the synoptic pattern, there is\nnow a large spread in the guidance toward the end of the forecast\nperiod.  The ECMWF and UKMET show a more southward turn after 72 h,\ntaking Leslie well south of 30N.  The GFS, on the other hand,\nshows a more eastward motion to the point where by 96 h it is 950\nn mi from the UKMET forecast position.  The new forecast track\ncompromises between these extremes and lies near the TVCN consensus,\nwith the caveat that the part after 72 h is of low confidence.\n\nLeslie should weaken some during the next 48 h or so as it crosses\nan area of cooler sea surface temperatures.  After that, the track\ntakes the center back over warmer water at the same time when there\nmay be an increase in shear.  There is an increased uncertainty in\nthe intensity forecast caused by the track forecast uncertainties.\nIf Leslie moves closer to the GFS track, it will be over cooler\nwater and in stronger shear, while if it moves closer to the UKMET\nsolution it will be over warmer water and lighter shear.  Due to to\nthe uncertainty, only minor adjustments are made to the previous\nintensity forecast.  Additional adjustments may be needed later\ndepending on changes in the track forecast.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office as these\nconditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 37.7N  55.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 37.6N  54.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 37.3N  51.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 36.6N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 35.7N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 33.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 30.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 29.0N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":29,"Date":"2018-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nSergio has remained nearly steady-state since last night and the\nclear eye is still surrounded by very cold cloud tops. The initial\nintensity remains 110 kt, based on a blend of subjective and\nobjective Dvorak intensity estimates. The primary moderating factor\nfor Sergio's intensity over the next few days will likely be sea\nsurface temperatures since GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggest\nthat the environment will be otherwise favorable. Sergio is now\nmoving west-southwestward at around 6 kt, likely just fast enough to\noutrun its own cold wake. Little change in Sergio's intensity is\nexpected for the next day or so while the hurricane is forecast to\ncontinue moving at around this same forward speed. By early next\nweek, a slower motion will likely cause some weakening to occur, as\nSergio becomes trapped over colder upwelled waters, with further\nweakening likely when Sergio reaches much cooler waters to the\nnorth. The ocean-coupled regional models show more weakening than\ncurrently indicated by the official forecast, while DSHP and LGEM\nshow a stronger storm, probably in part because those models use a\nconstant ocean field.  Confidence in the intensity forecast is not\nvery high, and it is likely that the faster Sergio moves, the\nstronger it will be.\n\nThe global models are in fairly good agreement on the general track\nof Sergio through the middle of next week, but they disagree on how\nquickly Sergio will move along that path. Sergio is still forecast\nto make a sharp u-turn toward the northeast over the next 3 days and\nthen accelerate in that direction between 72 and 120 h. Most of the\nmodels are showing a slightly slower forward speed than earlier\ncycles. However there are still large differences in their\nrepresentation of a shortwave trough off the coast of California\nthat will cause Sergio's acceleration, and the model spread remains\nhigh. The new official track forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory but generally shows a slower speed, especially after 48 h,\nin line with the latest track consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 14.7N 124.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 14.9N 126.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 19.5N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 23.6N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":42,"Date":"2018-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nThe central convection associated with Leslie is still well\norganized and concentrated.  A recent SSMIS image shows that\nLeslie's inner core is better defined resembling an eyewall.\nHowever, Dvorak estimates still support an initial intensity\nintensity of 50 kt.\n\nLeslie should weaken slightly during the next 24 to 36 h as the\ncyclone crosses patches of cooler SSTs.  After that time, the track\ntakes the center back over warmer waters, but the shear could\nincrease a little.  Only minor adjustments are made to the previous\nintensity forecast, and the NHC forecast follows very close the\nmodel consensus which suggests slight strengthening by the end of\nthe forecast period.\n\nLeslie continues to be embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies\nand is moving toward the east or 100 degrees at 10 kt. These\nwesterlies are forecast to be modulated by the passage of short\nwaves, and the flow pattern will initially keep Leslie on east to\neast-southeast track for most of the forecast period. By the end of\nthe period a turn to the northeast is anticipated.  Models are not\nin great agreement but they are consistently showing the eastward\nprogression of the cyclone. The NHC forecast is very close to the\nmodels consensus, and is basically in the middle of the track\nenvelope.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office as these\nconditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 37.4N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 37.1N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 36.6N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 35.8N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 34.8N  45.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 31.5N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 28.5N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 28.5N  31.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven/Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the\ncirculation of the low pressure area in the northwestern Caribbean\nSea is getting better defined, and that the associated convection\nis becoming better organized.  While the system is currently not\nwell enough organized to call it a tropical depression, current\nindications in the global models and the intensity guidance are that\nthe system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 h and\ncould bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Cuba\nand the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula.  Based on the need for\nwarnings and watches in these areas, advisories are being initiated\non Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen.\n\nAlthough the intensity guidance is in excellent agreement that the\nsystem should strengthen through the forecast period, the global\nmodels indicate that shear caused by an upper-level trough over the\nGulf of Mexico will persist through at least 48 h.  In addition, the\nstrongest winds are currently well removed from the center, which is\nlikely to slow development.  Based on this, the intensity forecast\nis in the lower part of the guidance envelope through 48 h, and then\nshows a faster rate of development from 48-96 h when the shear is\nforecast to diminish.  The intensity forecast is closest to a blend\nof the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nFor the first 24-48 h, the disturbance should move generally\nnorthward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the\nCaribbean Sea.  After that time, a large mid-latitude trough over\nthe central United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over the\nwestern Atlantic should steer the system generally northward at a\nfaster forward speed, with the system expected to move near or over\nthe northern Gulf coast in about 96 h.  After landfall, the system\nis likely to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The track\nguidance is in good overall agreement with this scenario.  However,\nit should be noted that there is a nearly 300 n mi cross-track\nspread in the guidance at the 96-h point.  The forecast track lies\njust to the west of the various consensus models.\n\nKey Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:\n\n1.  This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash\nflooding over portions of Central America, western Cuba, and the\nnortheastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of\ndays.  The system is also forecast to become a tropical storm by\nSunday night and tropical storm conditions are expected over\nportions of western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in\neffect.\n\n2. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to\nportions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too\nsoon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts.\nResidents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 18.0N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  07/0600Z 18.7N  86.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 19.9N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 36H  08/0600Z 21.0N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 22.5N  86.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 26.0N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 30.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 35.5N  81.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":30,"Date":"2018-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nThere has been little change in Sergio's satellite presentation\ntoday.  The large eye remains well defined in visible and infrared\nsatellite imagery, but there has been a slight warming of the\nsurrounding cloud tops since this morning.  However, the latest\nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates still support\nan initial wind speed of 110 kt.  As mentioned in the previous\ndiscussion, the primary factor regarding Sergio's future intensity\nwill be ocean temperatures beneath the cyclone over the next few\ndays, since the other environmental conditions are expected to\nremain favorable. Sergio should remain over warm waters during the\nnext day or so, but some upwelling of cooler water is possible as\nSergio slows down and makes its predicted sharp turn Sunday night\nand Monday, and this is forecast to cause some gradual weakening\nduring that time.  After 72 hours, cooler waters, increasing\nsouthwesterly shear, and less favorable thermodynamic conditions are\nlikely to result in additional weakening.  The NHC intensity\nforecast lies between the higher statistical guidance and the\nconsensus aids, and is very similar to the previous advisory.\n\nSergio is moving west-southwestward at about 6 kt.  The hurricane\nshould turn westward tonight before making a sharp northeastward\nturn as a mid-level trough drops southward to the north of Sergio\nand erodes the western portion of the ridge.  By early next week,\nSergio should move northeastward ahead of the aforementioned trough.\nThe track guidance is in good agreement on the overall scenario but\nthere continues to be differences in the future forward speed of the\nhurricane.  The guidance has once again trended a little slower this\ncycle, and the new NHC track lies between the previous forecast and\nthe latest consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 14.6N 124.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 14.5N 125.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 14.6N 126.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 15.1N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 15.7N 127.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 17.5N 125.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 20.0N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 24.2N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":43,"Date":"2018-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nLeslie's convective organization has changed little since the\nprevious advisory, with a small burst of deep convection having\ndeveloped just southeast of the center. The intensity remains at 50\nkt based on an average of current intensity estimates from TAFB and\nSAB, which is supported by a partial ASCAT pass that showed several\n45-kt surface wind vectors well east of the missed low-level center.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is easterly or 095/11 kt. Leslie is\nforecast to remain embedded in weak mid-latitude west-northwesterly\nflow for the next few days, which should keep the cyclone moving\ntoward the east-southeast over warmer water. By 72 h and beyond,  a\nstronger shortwave trough is forecast to dig to the west of Leslie,\nlifting the cyclone out toward the east and northeast. The new NHC\nforecast track is similar to, but a slower than, the previous\nadvisory track, but not as slow as the consensus models.\n\nLeslie is expected to weaken slightly during the next 36 h as the\ncyclone entrains some drier air.  After that time, however, Leslie\nis expected to move over warmer waters with SSTs reaching more than\n25 deg C by 48 h and beyond while the shear is forecast to remain\nlow. As a result, some modest re-strengthening is forecast on days\n2-5. The official intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN\nintensity consensus model.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue during the\nnext few days across the northeastern coast of the United States,\nBermuda, the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office as these\nconditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 37.3N  52.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 36.8N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 36.2N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 35.4N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 34.2N  43.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 30.9N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 28.7N  33.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 29.5N  28.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern has improved in organization and surface pressures\nare gradually falling, but there is no evidence that the system is\na tropical cyclone at this time.  All indications are, however, that\na tropical depression will likely form at any time soon. Strong wind\nshear is expected to affect the disturbance, and the SHIPS model\nonly show a modest strengthening. This is in contrast to some global\nmodels and the HWRF, which are more aggressive in developing this\nsystem.  Since the environment is marginally favorable, the NHC\nforecast only gradually strengthens the system at the rate of the\nintensity consensus IVCN.  However, the forecast is highly uncertain\ngiven the solution of the global models.\n\nSince the system does not have a well-defined center, the initial\nmotion is also uncertain. The best estimate is toward the north or\n360 degrees at 6 kt. Over the next 2 or 3 days, the cyclone will be\nembedded within the deep southerly flow between a strong subtropical\nridge over the western Atlantic and a sharp mid-latitude trough\nadvancing eastward over the United States.  This flow pattern will\nforce the system to move northward at 5 to 10 kt across the\neastern Gulf of Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. By day 4, the\nsystem should have moved inland and be weakening. It should\nthen race northeastward farther inland across the eastern U.S.  The\ntrack guidance envelope is remarkably quite tight. This increases\nthe confidence in the track forecast primarily after the cyclone\nforms.\n\nKey Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen:\n\n1.  This system is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding over\nportions of Central America, and these rains will spread over\nwestern Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during\nthe next couple of days.\n\n2.  The system is forecast to become a tropical storm by late\nSunday, and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of\nwestern Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.\n\n3.  The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts\nto portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is\ntoo soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these\nimpacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of\nthis system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 18.8N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  07/1200Z 19.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  08/0000Z 21.0N  86.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 22.3N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 23.8N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 27.4N  87.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 32.0N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  12/0000Z 38.5N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":31,"Date":"2018-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Sat Oct 06 2018\n\nLittle overall change has been noted in Sergio's satellite\npresentation the past several hours other than cloud tops have\nwarmed slightly. The 30-nmi-wide eye remains quite distinct and\noutflow is still very impressive in all quadrants. However, he\nwarming tops have resulted in slightly lower satellite intensity\nestimates from all agencies, so the initial intensity has been\nlowered to 105 kt for this advisory.\n\nSergio is lumbering along toward the west, or 270/06 kt. There is no\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.\nSergio should continue to move slowly westward around the\nsouthwestern periphery of a weak deep-layer ridge for the next day\nor so. By early next week, a strong trough is forecast to dig\nsouthward off the coasts of California and Baja California, which\nwill erode the ridge and cause Sergio to make a sharp northeastward\nturn and accelerate throughout the forecast period. The latest NHC\ntrack guidance remains in good agreement on this developing steering\nflow pattern, and there is very little cross-track spread in the\nmodels. The speed differences noted in the previous discussion have\ndecreased on this forecast cycle, so only minor tweaks had to be\nmade to the previous advisory track. The new forecast track lies\nclose the previous one and near a blend of the various consensus\ntrack models.\n\nOcean temperatures beneath the cyclone are forecast to decrease over\nthe next few days due to cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, so\ngradual weakening is expected for the next 3 days. After that, more\nrapid weakening is forecast due to increasing southwesterly\nvertical wind shear ahead of a a deep-layer trough. The NHC\nintensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and the\nIVCN consensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 14.5N 125.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 14.5N 126.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 14.8N 127.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 15.4N 127.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 16.1N 127.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 18.0N 124.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 20.9N 120.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":44,"Date":"2018-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  44\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nLeslie has not changed much overnight.  The storm has several curved\nbands to the east and north of the center, but a limited amount\nof deep convection in the southwestern quadrant.  The initial\nintensity is held at 50 kt based on the steady state appearance\nsince the previous ASCAT pass. This estimate is also in fair\nagreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\nLeslie will likely fluctuate in strength during the next several\ndays, but it should remain a tropical storm through the forecast\nperiod. Although some weakening is possible during the next day or\nso due to cool 23 to 24 deg C waters, slight re-strengthening is\nlikely after that time when the system moves back over warmer waters\nand remains in relatively low wind shear conditions.  There could be\nsome increase in shear by the end of the forecast period, however,\nwhich could result in slight weakening again.  The models are in\nfairly good agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to\nthe IVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nLeslie is moving eastward at 10 kt within the mid-latitude westerly\nflow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough.  This\ntrough is expected to amplify some, which should cause the storm to\nmove east-southeastward at a faster pace during the next few days.\nA slight turn back to the east or east-northeast with a decrease\nin forward speed is likely by the end of the forecast period when\nthe trough weakens.   There is a significant amount of spread in\nthe models associated with differences on how fast they expect\nLeslie to move.  In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models are more than\n1000 n mi apart by day 5.  The NHC track forecast is a little slower\nthan the previous one at the end of the period to come in better\nagreement with the latest consensus aids.  Given the model spread,\nthe confidence in the long-range track forecast is low at this\ntime.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue through\ntonight across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,\nthe Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office as these conditions\ncould cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 37.2N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 36.6N  50.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 36.1N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 35.1N  45.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 33.7N  42.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 30.1N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 28.6N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 29.5N  27.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nRadar data from Belize and infrared satellite imagery indicate that\nthe low pressure system centered just off the coast of the Yucatan\nPeninsula has continued to become better organized, with deep\nconvection consolidating just to the northeast of the low-level\ncenter.  Dvorak estimates have increased to T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5\nfrom SAB, indicating that the convective pattern has become\nsufficiently organized for the low to now be declared a tropical\ndepression.  The maximum winds are estimated to be 30 kt based on\nearlier ASCAT data.\n\nThe Belize radar data was extremely helpful in locating the\ndepression's center, and the system's 12-hour average motion is\nnorth-northwestward, or 340 degrees, at a very slow 3 kt.  The\ndepression is expected to move generally northward during the next\n3 days, gradually gaining speed as it enters the southerly flow\nbetween high pressure over the western Atlantic and an advancing\ndeep-layer trough over the western half of the United States.  After\nday 3, the trough is expected to cause the cyclone to turn\nnortheastward and accelerate further across the southeastern United\nStates.  While the track models agree on the general scenario,\nthere are some speed differences, most notably with the ECMWF model\nbeing slower than the other guidance.  Also, the ECMWF and GFS\nmodels are located along the western edge of the guidance envelope.\nIn light of these facts, the new NHC prediction is just a little\nslower than the previous one, and it lies to the west of the TVCN\nmulti-model consensus and the HCCA model during the first 3 days of\nthe forecast.\n\nThe depression is still being hampered by 20-30 kt of westerly\nshear, however it is also located in an environment of upper-level\ndiffluence to the southeast of a stationary trough over the Gulf of\nMexico.  The shear in the immediate vicinity of the cyclone is\nforecast to gradually abate during the next 2-3 days while the\ndiffluent upper-air pattern continues, and along with sufficiently\nwarm waters of 28-30 degrees Celsius, all indications are that the\ndepression will gradually strengthen while it moves northward over\nthe Gulf of Mexico.  In fact, nearly every piece of intensity\nguidance brings the cyclone to hurricane strength before it reaches\nland, including the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models, which all\nshow significant deepening of the central pressure.  The updated NHC\nintensity forecast generally lies between the ICON intensity\nconsensus and the HCCA model for the entire forecast period, and it\nnow explicitly shows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength by 72\nhours.\n\n\nKey Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:\n\n1.  The depression is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of Central America, and these rains will spread over\nwestern Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during\nthe next couple of days.\n\n2.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later\ntoday, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over\nportions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,\nwhere tropical storm warnings are in effect.\n\n3.  Storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts are possible over\nportions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is\ntoo soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these\nimpacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of\nthis system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 18.6N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 19.4N  86.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 20.8N  86.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 23.9N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 27.6N  87.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 32.0N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  12/0600Z 37.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE VA COAST\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":32,"Date":"2018-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nSergio appears to have lost some strength during the past several\nhours.  Deep convection has decreased in intensity, and the eye\nappears larger and more ragged in recent satellite images.  The\ninitial intensity is lowered a little to 100 kt, which is near the\nupper end of the satellite intensity estimates, and this could be a\nlittle generous.\n\nThe hurricane is still moving westward at about 7 kt, and a slow\nwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected for the next 12\nhours.  The steering currents are expected to weaken later today,\nand Sergio will likely drift northwestward and northward tonight and\nMonday.  After that time, a large trough over the southwestern\nUnited States is expected to cause Sergio to move toward the\nnortheast with increasing forward speed.  The track models are\ntightly clustered, and only small changes were made to the previous\nNHC forecast.\n\nThe predicted slow motion of the tropical cyclone during the\nnext couple of days will likely cause ocean upwelling, which could\nresult in continued slow weakening in the short term.  In the longer\nrange, the models show Sergio moving into an atmospheric environment\nof drier air and stronger shear and over waters cooler than 26 deg\nC, which should continue the weakening trend or even accelerate it.\nThe NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one,\nand it is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 126.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 14.7N 127.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 15.0N 127.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 15.7N 127.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 18.5N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 22.0N 119.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 26.6N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":45,"Date":"2018-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nDespite marginal SSTs near 24 deg C, Leslie has persisted with\nlittle change in its structure. An average of the UW-CIMSS SATCON\nand current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB still supports an\ninitial intensity of 50 kt. Although Leslie is currently located in\na low-shear environment, GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics suggests\nthat mid-level humidities are fairly low, and the cyclone should\nremain over marginal SSTs for the foreseeable future.  All of the\nintensity guidance forecasts little to no intensity change during\nthe next day or so.  However, by 36 h, nearly all of the dynamical\nmodels, both global and regional, forecast that Leslie will begin to\nrestrengthen.  On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical models\ndo not forecast much change through day 5.  The NHC forecast has\nbeen adjusted a little higher to keep it close to the intensity\nconsensus, and I can't rule out that Leslie could become a hurricane\nagain at some point during the coming week.\n\nNo large changes were made to the NHC track forecast, but this\nshould not be interpreted as a sign of confidence in the forecast.\nLeslie is currently moving with an initial motion of east-southeast,\nor 115/9 kt. The track model spread is high from the very beginning\nof the forecast, with the GFS and its associated regional models\nindicating that Leslie will continue on a similar heading for the\nnext several days, while the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Leslie\nwill slow down and turn soon turn toward the southeast or\nsouth-southeast. The track forecast variance stems from differences\nin how quickly the models show Leslie separating from a mid-level\ntrough to its north, if at all, and by day 5, the GFS and ECMWF\nsolutions vary by about 750 n mi. At this point, I don't have a good\nreason to pick one solution over another, and it should be noted\nthat based on the ECMWF ensemble tracks, there is a whole spectrum\nof possible solutions between these extremes. The NHC track forecast\ntherefore remains near the TVCN and GFEX aids as a course of least\nregret, but significant changes could be required to future\nadvisories if the track of Leslie becomes more clear.\n\nLarge swells generated by Leslie are expected to continue through\ntonight across the northeastern coast of the United States, Bermuda,\nthe Greater and Lesser Antilles, and Atlantic Canada. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office as these conditions\ncould cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 36.6N  51.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 36.2N  49.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 35.4N  47.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 34.2N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 32.6N  41.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 29.1N  36.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 28.5N  31.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 30.0N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nSatellite and radar data indicate that the depression continues to\nbecome better organized, but surface data suggests the circulation\nmay be somewhat elongated.  There is still evidence of westerly\nshear as the center is located near the western edge of the main\nconvective mass, but there has been an increase in banding over\nthe eastern semicircle since yesterday afternoon.  The depression\nappears to be close to tropical storm strength and Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are between 30-35 kt.  An Air Force\nReserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the\nsystem early this afternoon and should provide a better assessment\nof the intensity of the cyclone.  For now, the intensity is held at\na possibly conservative 30 kt.\n\nThe moderate westerly shear that is affecting the depression is\nforecast to gradually decrease over the next day or two as an\nupper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico moves westward and\nweakens.  This, in combination with warm waters, should allow for\ngradual strengthening as the system moves northward over the Gulf of\nMexico.  Nearly all of the intensity models bring the cyclone to\nhurricane strength over the Gulf of Mexico in 2 to 3 days, and the\nNHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast is\nslightly higher than the previous advisory and again lies near the\nICON intensity consensus. This is a little below the more aggressive\nHWRF and HCCA models.\n\nThe depression is moving northward at about 5 kt.  The system is\nforecast to move generally northward during the next 2 to 3 days,\nwith some increase in forward speed as it moves between a deep-layer\nridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central\nUnited Sates.  A northeastward turn is expected after 72 hours as\nthe aforementioned trough progresses eastward across the central\nUnited States.  The dynamical models generally agree on the overall\nscenario, but there are still large difference in forward speed. In\nfact, the ECMWF ensemble has members that are still over the Gulf of\nMexico in 5 days, and others that reach southern New England in that\ntime period.  The NHC forecast is near the left side of the guidance\nenvelope through 48 hours out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF that\nare both on that side of the track spread.  After that time, the NHC\ntrack forecast is close to the various consensus aids to account for\nboth the along and cross track spread of the guidance.\n\n\nKey Messages for Tropical Depression Fourteen:\n\n1.  The depression is forecast to produce heavy rainfall and\nflash flooding over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern\nYucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days.\n\n2.  The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later\ntoday, and tropical storm conditions are expected by tonight over\nportions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula,\nwhere tropical storm warnings are in effect.\n\n3.  There is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, rainfall,\nand wind impacts over portions of the northern Gulf Coast by\nmid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and\nmagnitude of these impacts.  Residents in these areas should monitor\nthe progress of this system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 19.2N  86.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 20.0N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 23.2N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 24.9N  87.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 28.7N  86.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":33,"Date":"2018-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nSomewhat quickly and unexpectedly, Sergio took on the appearance of\nan annular hurricane overnight. The eye of the hurricane expanded,\nnearly doubling in size (now 70 n mi across), and most of the\nbanding features disappeared. However, IR imagery over the past\nhour or two indicates that the hurricane is still somewhat\nasymmetrical, suggesting that the hurricane may not have a classical\nannular structure, at least not yet. The initial intensity has been\nlowered to 90 kt, in agreement with the latest current intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe hurricane continues to move due west with an initial forward\nspeed of 7 kt. Sergio is still expected to slow down and turn first\nnorthward, and then northeastward over the next couple of days. By\nmid-week, a mid-level shortwave trough moving southward off coast of\nCalifornia should cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward toward\nthe Baja California peninsula. The global models remain in fairly\ngood agreement on the track of the cyclone through the middle of\nnext week, and only small changes were made to the NHC track\nforecast to move it closer to the model consensus.\n\nAs long as Sergio can maintain its annular-like structure, only slow\nweakening is anticipated due to continued effects of ocean upwelling\ncombined with the slow forward motion of the hurricane. By the end\nof the forecast period, Sergio will be moving over much cooler SSTs\nlocated west of the Baja California peninsula, and a faster\nweakening rate is forecast. Given the lower initial intensity of\nSergio, the official intensity forecast is a little lower for the\nfirst two days of the forecast, but is very similar beyond that\ntime.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.5N 126.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 14.8N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 15.2N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 15.9N 128.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 16.7N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":46,"Date":"2018-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nLate-arriving ASCAT data from shortly after 1200 UTC indicated that\nLeslie is still producing winds of just below 45 kt, primarily in\nthe southwest and northeast quadrants of the tropical storm.\nAssuming at least a little undersampling has occurred, this would\nsupport an initial intensity of 45 or 50 kt, while an average of\nmore recent intensity estimates from SAB, TAFB, and the UW-CIMSS\nis 50 kt.  The initial value is therefore held at 50 kt.\n\nRegardless of the exact initial intensity of Leslie, only slight\nfluctuations are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours while Leslie\nis over fairly cool SSTs, in part because it will be crossing its\nown previous track multiple times.  Beyond 48 h, the intensity\nguidance is now in better agreement that some intensification\nwill occur, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane once again\nby the end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is a little\nhigher than the previous advisory by the end of the forecast\nperiod, and is close to IVCN at all times.\n\nLeslie is still moving east-southeastward with an initial speed of 9\nkt, and this general motion will likely continue for at least the\nnext day or two while the tropical storm is steered by westerly flow\nassociated with a mid-latitude trough to its north.  Most of the\nglobal models still forecast that Leslie will separate from the\ntrough in a few days and turn southeastward, and there are still\nlarge differences on exactly when that will occur. The deterministic\nruns of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement on the\nfuture track of Leslie, but the ensembles of those models indicate\nthat the range of possible tracks hasn't actually decreased.\nConfidence in the track forecast therefore remains quite low.  In\ngeneral, the guidance suite has shifted to the south and west,\nparticularly between 36 and 96 h.  The official track forecast has\nbeen shifted in that direction to bring it closer to the track\nconsensus. However, it should be emphasized that confidence in the\ntrack forecast remains low at this time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 35.9N  49.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 35.4N  48.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 34.3N  45.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 32.8N  43.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 31.2N  41.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 28.2N  38.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 28.6N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 30.5N  27.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nDeep convection has continued to develop over the eastern\nsemicircle of the cyclone, and data from the reconnaissance\naircraft indicate that the center has re-formed farther east,\ncloser to the convection.  The Air Force aircraft has measured peak\n925-mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, and believable SFMR winds of\n40-45 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been\nincreased to 45 kt.\n\nDue to the center reformation, the initial motion estimate is a\nhighly uncertain 020/3 kt.  The overall forecast reasoning has not\nchanged much since the previous advisory.  Although there could be\nsome additional eastward re-formation of the center, the tropical\nstorm is forecast to begin moving northward between a ridge over the\nwestern Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the west-central\nUnited States.  A general northward motion at around 10 kt is then\nexpected to continue during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,\nMichael should turn northeastward ahead of an approaching trough.\nThe track guidance remains in overall agreement on this scenario,\nhowever, significant along-track (forward speed and timing)\ndifferences remain.  The HWRF brings Michael onshore the northern\nGulf coast within 72 hours, while the ECMWF is much slower and has\nMichael still offshore at day 4. The new NHC track has been shifted\neastward primarily in the short term due to the more eastward\ninitial position.  The latter portion of the track forecast is again\nclose to the consensus aids due to the large along- and cross-track\nguidance spread.\n\nMichael has strengthened today despite moderate westerly shear.  The\nshear is forecast to gradually decrease over the next couple of days\nwhile the system moves over warm waters.  This should allow for\nsteady strengthening and most of the intensity models bring Michael\nto hurricane strength within the next couple of days.  It should\nalso be noted that the global models also significantly deepen the\nstorm over the next 72 hours to pressures below 970 mb.  The new NHC\nintensity forecast calls for Michael to become a hurricane in about\n36 hours when the storm reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.\nAdditional strengthening is indicated through 72 hours when the\nstorm is forecast to be near the northern Gulf coast, and the NHC\nforecast is near the higher SHIPS and HWRF models.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula\nof Mexico during the next couple of days.\n\n2.  Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of\nwestern Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical\nstorm warnings are in effect.\n\n3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the\nnortheastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm\nsurge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In\naddition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf\nCoast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of\nthe storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas\nshould monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 19.2N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 20.1N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 23.2N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 25.0N  86.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 29.2N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 33.7N  80.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n120H  12/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":34,"Date":"2018-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nSergio has maintained its annular-like structure over the past\nseveral hours. The eye has expanded to nearly 90 n mi across, and\nthere is little evidence of convective banding in multiple microwave\noverpasses since 1200 UTC this morning. Dvorak classifications from\nTAFB and SAB have decreased since the last advisory, however the\nUW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are a little higher, so the initial\nintensity has been lowered only slightly to 85 kt.\n\nVery little change has been made to the official track or intensity\nforecasts. Sergio is still forecast to slow down and turn northward\nover the next day or so. In fact, the 12 h forecast point is\npractically already inside the eye of the hurricane.  By Tuesday,\none or more shortwave troughs working southward along the western\nside of a deep-layer trough centered over the southwestern U.S.\nshould cause Sergio to accelerate northeastward. Interestingly,\nalthough the various global models solutions have changed with this\nforecast cycle, the consensus has been fairly consistent, so only\nminor adjustments were required to the official track forecast.\n\nSlow weakening is still anticipated over the next few days as Sergio\npossibly maintains its annular structure. By mid-week, Sergio will\nbe moving over progressively cooler waters, and a faster rate of\nweakening is likely. The NHC forecast is very similar to the\nprevious advisory, and is near the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus\naids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 14.7N 127.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 15.0N 128.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 15.6N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 19.6N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 28.0N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":47,"Date":"2018-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nLeslie's cloud pattern consists of a large and vigorous circulation,\nbut the convection is shallow at this time. Dvorak numbers only\nsupport an initial intensity of 45 kt. Some fluctuations in\nintensity are expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, while Leslie\nis over fairly cool SSTs.  After that time, Leslie will encounter\nwarmer waters, and since the shear is low, some re-intensification\nis anticipated. Leslie will likely become a hurricane once again\nby the end of the week as indicated by the guidance.\n\nLeslie is still moving east-southeastward at about 11 kt. Since\nLeslie is embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow, this\ngeneral motion will likely continue for the next 2 days or so.\nThis is consistent with most of the track guidance, which continue\nto show a southeastward motion of the cyclone during that period.\nAnother shortwave trough in the westerlies will bypass the cyclone,\nbut will modify the steering flow, and Leslie should then turn to\nthe east-northeast. It should be emphasized that confidence in the\ntrack forecast remains low.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 35.7N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 35.2N  47.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 33.8N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 32.0N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 28.5N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 30.0N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 32.0N  24.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nOn the last outbound leg to the north, the Air Force Reserve\nreconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 925-mb flight-level wind of\n60 kt and an SFMR surface wind of 53 kt in very light rain. Since\nthat time, deep convection has developed in the same area where\nthose peak wind values were measured, so the initial intensity has\nbeen increased to a conservative 50 kt. Another recon aircraft is\nscheduled to investigate Michael around 0600 UTC.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is northward, or 005/03 kt based on the\nrecon and microwave satellite data. The bulk of the forecast\nrationale remains unchanged, although there remains some notable\ndifferences between the models that will ultimately determine where\nand when Michael will make landfall in about 72 h or so. The GFS,\nECMWF, HWRF, and HMON models are tightly clustered along the western\nside of the guidance envelope. In contrast, the UKMET model is the\nfarthest east of the dynamical models. Interestingly, the NOAA\ncorrected-consensus HCCA model and the simple consensus IVCN models\nare close to each other and lie between the aforementioned model\ntrack dichotomy. Given that modest westerly vertical wind shear is\nexpected to affect Michael throughout the forecast period until\nlandfall occurs, which should keep the strongest convection,\nassociated latent heat release, and pressure falls occurring in the\neastern semicircle, the official forecast track leans more toward\nthe HCCA/IVCN and UKMET model solutions. As a result, a slight\neastward shift to the previous forecast track was made on this\nadvisory through 48 hours, with little change made to the previous\nadvisory track on days 3-5.\n\nMichael's overall cloud pattern remains unchanged, with the bulk of\nthe convection being displaced into the eastern semicircle due to\nabout 20 kt of westerly shear. However, the inner-core convective\npattern within about 60 nmi of the center has been improving over\nthe past few hours, and a recent SSMI/S microwave pass reveled a\ntightly curved band wrapping about 75 percent around the center.\nThis better structure combined with very warm sea-surface\ntemperatures of at least 29 deg C supports at least gradual\nstrengthening until landfall despite the expected persistent\nwesterly shear conditions. The HWRF model is the most robust of the\nintensity guidance and makes Michael a category 4 hurricane just\nprior to landfall. However, all of global models and the HWRF and\nHMON regional models are indicating westerly to west-northwesterly\nshear keeping the upper-level outflow restricted to the eastern\nsemicircle, which is not a pattern conducive for the development of\nan intense hurricane. Therefore, the HRWF intensity solution has\nbeen discounted, and the new official intensity forecast remains\nsimilar to the previous advisory, which is close to but a little\nlower than the IVCN and ICON intensity consensus models. Although\nthe 72-h forecast shows a decrease to 75 kt, this is due to the\ncyclone being inland, and should not be interpreted as being an\nindication of a weakening trend prior to landfall.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula\nof Mexico during the next couple of days.\n\n2.  Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight over portions of\nwestern Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, where tropical\nstorm warnings are in effect.\n\n3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the\nnortheastern Gulf Coast by mid-week, and the risk of dangerous storm\nsurge, rainfall, and wind impacts continues to increase. In\naddition, Michael is expected to affect portions of the Florida Gulf\nCoast that are especially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of\nthe storm's exact track or intensity. Residents in these areas\nshould monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 20.0N  85.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 21.1N  85.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 22.7N  85.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 24.4N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 26.3N  86.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 30.4N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND ERN FL PANHNDL\n 96H  12/0000Z 34.9N  78.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n120H  13/0000Z 40.7N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":35,"Date":"2018-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Sun Oct 07 2018\n\nSergio still has its annular-like structure, but the surrounding\nconvection is not as strong as earlier today. Dvorak objective and\nsubjective numbers only support 80 kt at this time. Little\nsignificant change in strength is anticipated during the next 12 to\n24 hours while the waters are still relatively warm. In about 2\ndays, the cyclone should encounter cooler waters, and a weakening\ntrend at a faster rate is anticipated. Sergio is forecast to be a\ntropical storm by the time it is approaching the Baja California\npeninsula.\n\nSergio is currently embedded within light steering currents and\nis barely moving toward the northwest at 3 kt. A northward drift is\nexpected during the next 24 hours, but after that time, a broad\nmid-level trough is forecast to amplify over the west coast of the\nU.S., and this flow pattern should force Sergio to recurve\nnortheastward with increasing forward speed.  The track guidance is\nin remarkably good agreement, basically on top of each other for the\nnext 3 days, increasing the confidence in the track forecast. Beyond\n3 days, models are in less agreement, but still bring the cyclone\nvery near the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in 4\ndays or so.  The NHC forecast is not very different from the\nprevious one and is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 16.0N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.7N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 25.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 32.0N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":48,"Date":"2018-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nThere has not been a lot of change with Leslie overnight.  Deep\nconvection is still organized in curved bands near and to the north\nof the center, but there is some dry air entraining into the\nwestern side of the circulation.  A blend of the latest satellite\nintensity estimates supports holding the initial intensity at 45 kt.\n\nLeslie is over cool 24 deg C waters, but it will be headed over\nslightly warmer waters during the next few days while remaining in\nlow wind shear conditions.  Therefore, slow strengthening is\nexpected and most of the intensity models show Leslie reaching\nhurricane strength once again within the next 3 to 4 days.  By the\nend of the period, cooler waters and an increase in shear could\ncause some weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher\nthan the previous one, to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA\nguidance.\n\nLeslie is moving east-southeastward at 11 kt steered by the flow on\nthe south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough over the north\nAtlantic.  An east-southeast to southeast motion is expected during\nthe next couple of days as the trough passes by to the north of\nLeslie.  After that time, another large-scale trough will approach\nLeslie from the northwest and that should cause the storm to turn\neast-northeastward at a faster pace in the 4 to 5 day time frame.\nThe models have come into a better agreement this cycle showing a\nfaster and more northward motion at the end of the period, and the\nNHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 35.2N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 34.3N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 32.9N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 31.1N  42.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 29.6N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 28.8N  38.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 31.2N  30.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 36.8N  20.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Michael Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nMichael has become better organized this morning, with the deep\nconvection migrating westward on top of the low-level center and\nupper-level outflow beginning to increase within the western\nsemicircle.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made\nseveral passes through the system during the past few hours, and\nsomewhat surprisingly, found that the central pressure has fallen\nto about 983 mb and maximum winds have increased to near 60 kt.\nThis increase in intensity indicates that despite the shear which\nhas been affecting Michael, the system has, by definition, rapidly\nintensified during the past 24 hours.\n\nWith the increase in the initial wind speeds, the official\nintensity forecast is higher than in the previous forecast.\nDecreasing vertical shear and very warm sea surface temperatures\nare expected to support continued strengthening, and due to the\nfavorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of\nthe IVCN consensus and the HCCA model.  This new official forecast\nbrings the intensity to just below major hurricane strength in 48\nhours, and since the storm will still be over water for a time\nbetween 48 and 72 hours, there is a real possibility that Michael\nwill strengthen to a major hurricane before landfall.  Weakening is\nexpected after landfall, but the system will likely maintain\ntropical storm strength after day 4 when it moves off the east\ncoast of the United States.  Michael should then become an\nextratropical low by day 5.\n\nThe reconnaissance fixes indicate that Michael's center is moving\nnorthward, or 360 degrees at 6 kt.  A general northward motion with\nsome increase in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours\nas Michael enters the southerly flow between high pressure over the\nwestern Atlantic and a deep-layer trough over the western and\ncentral United States.  After 48 hours, Michael is expected to turn\nnortheastward toward and across the southeastern United States,\nexiting over the western Atlantic between days 4 and 5.  Nearly all\nof the track models have shifted westward after 24 hours, which\nleft the previous forecast near the eastern edge of the guidance\nenvelope.  Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast has also\nbeen adjusted westward close to the consensus aids.  Overall the\ntrack guidance is in fairly good agreement up until landfall along\nthe Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend, which has yielded a\nfairly confident track forecast.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Hurricane conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba,\nwhere a hurricane warning is now in effect.  Tropical storm\nconditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula and\nthe Isle of Youth today.\n\n2.  Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula\nof Mexico during the next couple of days.\n\n3.  Michael is forecast to be a hurricane, and possibly a major\nhurricane, when it reaches the northeastern Gulf Coast by mid-week,\nand storm surge and hurricane watches are now in effect for\nportions of the area.  Some areas along the Florida Gulf Coast are\nespecially vulnerable to storm surge, regardless of the storm's\nexact track or intensity.  Residents in the watch areas should\nmonitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by\nlocal officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 20.6N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 21.7N  85.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 23.5N  86.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 25.2N  86.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 27.2N  86.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 31.2N  84.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/0600Z 35.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n120H  13/0600Z 40.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":36,"Date":"2018-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nSergio continues to have a large 60 nmi diameter eye with several\nmesovorticies within it.  Although the cloud pattern is quite\nsymmetric around the eye, the cloud tops are not very cold, likely\ndue to some ocean upwelling beneath the hurricane.  The Dvorak\nestimates are largely unchanged from earlier and still support an\ninitial intensity of 80 kt.\n\nSergio is now drifting northwestward in weak steering currents.  A\nshortwave trough is expected to approach Sergio from the north, and\nthat feature, and a large trough over the southwestern United States\nshould cause Sergio to turn northeastward tonight.  This motion with\nan increase in forward speed is expected through the remainder of\nthe week.  The models are in good agreement overall, and the NHC\ntrack forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\nBased on this forecast, Sergio is expected to be very near the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula in about 4 days.\n\nSergio is expected to hold its strength or weaken only slightly\nduring the next day or so while it remains in a favorable\natmospheric environment.  However, steady weakening is expected\nafter that time due to increasing shear, drier air, and\nprogressively cooler waters along the forecast track.  Based on the\nintensity guidance and environmental conditions, Sergio is expected\nto be a tropical storm by the time it nears the Baja California\npeninsula. The cyclone should weaken quickly once it moves inland.\nThe NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near\nthe HCCA and IVCN guidance.\n\nRecent ASCAT data was very helpful in analyzing the 34- and 50-kt\nwind radii.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 15.2N 128.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 15.7N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 16.4N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 17.2N 126.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 18.2N 124.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 21.4N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA\n120H  13/0600Z 33.0N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":49,"Date":"2018-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  49\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nFor the fourth (and hopefully final) time as a tropical or\nsubtropical cyclone, Leslie has crossed 48W.  The convective pattern\nof the tropical storm hasn't changed significantly over the past\nseveral hours, though there is some evidence of a convective band\nattempting to wrap around the western side of the storm.  The\ninitial intensity is still 45 kt, based on a blend of the most\nrecent current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS\nSATCON.\n\nThere has been little change in the intensity forecast.  Just about\nall of the typically reliable intensity models still call for\nLeslie to gradually strengthen over the next 3 days, despite\nmarginal SSTs.  All of the dynamical models call for Leslie to\nbecome a hurricane once again by 72 h, but SHIPS and LGEM\nare a little lower.  The official intensity forecast remains near\nthe HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and calls for Leslie to become a\nhurricane by the end of the week.\n\nLeslie has continued to move east-southeastward, now at 12 kt, and\nthe global models are in good agreement that this motion will\ncontinue through today. After that time, most of the guidance\ngenerally shows that Leslie will separate from a mid-latitude\ntrough, causing the tropical storm to turn toward the southeast or\nsouth-southeast and slow down. A day or so after that, another\nmid-latitude trough will approach from the west and cause Leslie to\naccelerate toward the east-northeast.  The timing of Leslie's\nacceleration is still very uncertain, and the model spread beyond\n72 h remains very high.  Until the spread decreases, I don't feel\nconfident making a big change to the forecast, so the official track\nforecast has only been slightly tweaked to bring it closer to HCCA\nand TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 34.6N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 33.6N  45.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 32.0N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 30.2N  42.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 29.1N  41.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 29.5N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 33.0N  28.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 39.0N  18.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Michael has continued to improve\novernight and this morning, with the center well embedded within an\narea of cold cloud tops. An eye is becoming apparent in visible\nimagery, and this was also confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave\noverpass and the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft.  The\naircraft reported a minimum pressure around 982 mb during the most\nrecent pass through the center, and also found flight-level\nwinds that support upgrading Michael to a a 65-kt hurricane for this\nadvisory.\n\nAlthough the outflow is still somewhat restricted over the western\nportion of the circulation, it has been expanding in that\ndirection. The global models suggest that the shear will relax a\nlittle more while the hurricane moves over the very warm waters of\nthe southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  Now that Michael has developed an\ninner core, steady to rapid strengthening is predicted during the\nnext 24 to 36 hours.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index and\nDTOPS give a 55-60 percent chance of rapid intensification during\nthe next 24 hours.  The updated NHC forecast is near the upper-end\nof the guidance and calls for rapid strengthening over the next 24\nhours, and brings Michael to major hurricane status.  After\nthat time, most of the intensity guidance slows down the rate of\nintensification, perhaps due to a slight increase in southwesterly\nshear.  Weakening is expected after landfall, but the forecast track\nkeeps a portion of the circulation over water along the southeast\nU.S. coast, so Michael is predicted to remain a tropical storm\nthrough 72 hours.  The system should become a powerful extratropical\nlow off the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast in about 4 days.\n\nReconnaissance aircraft fixes indicate that Michael is still moving\na little east of due north.  The hurricane should move northward or\nnorth-northwestward over the next couple of days while the storm\ncrosses the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  By 48 hours, Michael should\nturn northeastward ahead of a trough moving into the central\nUnited States.  The cross-track spread in the guidance has\ndecreased since yesterday, but there continue to be differences in\nhow fast Michael moves northward over the Gulf of Mexico.  The HWRF\nand GFS remain among the faster models, while the ECMWF is still\nmuch slower.  The NHC track is along the eastern side of the\nguidance through 24 hours due to the recent motion of the storm,\nand is remains near the various consensus aids after that time. The\npost-tropical portion of the track and intensity forecast is based\non guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Michael is forecast to be a dangerous major hurricane when it\nreaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and life-\nthreatening storm surge is possible along portions of the Florida\nGulf Coast regardless of the storm's exact track or intensity.\nResidents in the storm surge and hurricane watch areas should follow\nany advice given by local officials, as storm surge and hurricane\nwarnings will likely be issued later today.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of the Carolinas through Thursday.\n\n3. Hurricane conditions will spread over portions of western Cuba\nthis afternoon, where a hurricane warning is now in effect.\nTropical storm conditions are expected over the northeastern Yucatan\nPeninsula and the Isle of Youth today.\n\n4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula\nof Mexico during the next couple of days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 21.2N  84.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 22.6N  85.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 24.4N  85.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 26.4N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 28.6N  86.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/1200Z 37.8N  73.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  13/1200Z 42.8N  59.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":37,"Date":"2018-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nSergio's structure has remained nearly steady-state for the past 24\nhours.  A solid ring of deep convection surrounds Sergio's giant\neye, and there is little evidence of any convective bands.  Despite\nupwelling that is presumably occuring beneath the slow moving\nhurricane, cloud tops have actually cooled over the past few hours,\nand satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have not\nchanged. The initial intensity has therefore been held at 80 kt,\nwhich also agrees with a 1045 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.\n\nAs long as Sergio can maintain its annular structure in an\nenvironment of negligible shear, only very gradual weakening is\nexpected, despite presumably cooling waters beneath the cyclone\nassociated with its slow movement.  The ECMWF and GFS forecast that\nthe shear will begin to increase in about 24 to 36 hours, and the\ncyclone will also be reaching much cooler waters shortly after that\ntime.  A faster rate of weakening is therefore anticipated beyond\n48 h, in line with the latest intensity consensus, and Sergio is\nforecast to be a tropical storm when it approaches northwestern\nMexico in a few days.  The cyclone should weaken quickly after\nlandfall, and will likely dissipate over the high terrain of\nmainland Mexico, though a 5 day remnant low point is still shown\nfor continuity purposes.\n\nSergio is moving very little right now, and the slow motion will\nlikely continue during the day today.  By tonight, a large trough\ncentered over the southwestern United States will cause the\nhurricane to accelerate northeastward.  The track guidance is in\ngood agreement on the track of Sergio, although there is still some\nuncertainty associated with the timing for when Sergio will reach\nthe west coast of the Baja California peninsula. Only minor changes\nwere made to the official track forecast, which lies near the middle\nof the guidance envelope and very close to TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 15.3N 128.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 15.9N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 16.6N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 17.4N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 18.6N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 22.3N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n120H  13/1200Z 33.0N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":50,"Date":"2018-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  50\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nGOES-16 data indicate that Leslie has a small central dense overcast\nwith an inner core trying to form on the last few visible images.\nConvection has also deepened somewhat, and the overall cloud pattern\nis becoming more symmetric.  All signs point to strengthening and\nthe Dvorak estimates are increasing.   So for Leslie's 50th\nadvisory, the wind speed is raised to 50 kt, near the CIMSS ADT\nvalue.\n\nLeslie is moving southeastward at about 12 kt; an unusually fast\npace for this direction.  The storm is forecast to slow down\nsomewhat and turn toward the south-southeast during the next day or\ntwo as the cyclone separates from the mid-latitude flow temporarily\nand becomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.\nFortunately the ridge isn't strong enough for Leslie to move\nwestward again, and the models all eject Leslie northeastward\nbecause of a deepening trough over the eastern Atlantic.  There has\nbeen a notable trend southward through 48 hours, and the official\nforecast follows that idea.   The forecast becomes a nightmare at\nlong range, however, with very little agreement on whether Leslie is\naccelerated ahead of the trough, like the latest FV3GFS, or gets\nleft behind again, like the ECMWF.  These differences result in a\n1200 mile spread of the historically reliable models by day 5,\nresulting in a very low confidence forecast. The bulk of the\nguidance is now indicating that the \"left behind\" option is becoming\nmore likely, but continuity dictates making forecast changes in\nsmaller chunks. So the official forecast is much slower and farther\nsouth at long range, but is well north of the latest model\nconsensus.  Further southward adjustments could be required if model\ntrends continue.\n\nInterestingly, model guidance is becoming more certain on Leslie\nbecoming a hurricane again as it moves over warmer (but still\nmarginally warm) waters, into a lighter-shear and higher mid-level\nhumidity enviroment.  This makes some sense given that the track is\nshifting southward and Leslie should finally move over a warmer\nportion of the subtropical Atlantic that it hasn't touched yet. Thus\nthe intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, and the\ncorrected-consensus models even suggest category 2 as a peak\nintensity is possible.  By day 5, increasing shear and cooler waters\nshould weaken Leslie, and it could be undergoing extratropical\ntransition at that time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 33.8N  45.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 32.5N  44.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 30.6N  43.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 28.9N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 28.2N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 29.5N  37.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 33.5N  26.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 37.0N  17.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nData from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was\nin the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the\nhurricane was deepening.  The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on\nthe final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the\nnortheastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of\nland.  The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a\nblend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued\ndeepening that was observed.\n\nThe upper-level outflow has gradually improved over Michael but it\nis still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the storm.\nThere has been no significant change to the intensity forecast\nthinking.  The moderate shear that has been affecting the cyclone is\nnot expected to prevent strengthening while Michael moves over the\nwarm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  Although the statistical\nguidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and\nglobal models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC\nforecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP\ncorrected consensus model.\n\nAircraft and satellite fixes show that Michael has been wobbling as\nit moves generally northward. Smoothing through the wobbles gives a\nlong-term initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. Michael is forecast\nto move north-northwestward to northward between a deep-layer ridge\nover the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United\nStates. The trough is forecast move eastward, causing Michael to\nturn northeastward in 36 to 48 hours, and the cyclone should then\naccelerate northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly\nflow. The 1200 UTC dynamical models have converged on both the\ntrack and forward speed through the first 48 to 72 hours. The\nupdated NHC track has been nudged slightly westward through 48 hours\nto be closer to the latest consensus aids.\n\nIt should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm\nsurge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,\nintensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still\nuncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge\nforecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible\nscenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of\nMichael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along\nportions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the\nstorm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for\nparts of this area.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission\nover the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be\nassimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a\nstorm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these\nareas should follow all advice given by their local officials.\n\n2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida\nGulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for\nlife-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.\nDamaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the\nFlorida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as\nMichael moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia and South Carolina.\n\n4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba\nthrough this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.\n\n5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula\nof Mexico during the next couple of days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 22.2N  85.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 23.7N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 30.2N  85.8W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 72H  11/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/1800Z 39.8N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  13/1800Z 46.2N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":38,"Date":"2018-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nSergio still consists almost entirely of a solid ring of deep\nconvection surrounding a very large eye.  A pair of timely ASCAT\npasses from around 1800 UTC show that the hurricane wind field\nremains very symmetric with a large RMW.  Although we wouldn't\nexpect that instrument to capture the true magnitude of the\nhurricane's maximum winds, the data does suggest that the winds have\ndecreased at least a little since this morning.  UW-CIMSS SATCON\nvalues have also decreased, so the initial intensity is lowered\nslightly to 75 kt.\n\nThe hurricane is moving very slowly northward, around 3 kt.  There\nhas been no change to the reasoning behind the track forecast and\nSergio should still accelerate northeastward in a day or so,\napproaching the Baja California peninsula by the end of the week.\nNearly all of the models have shifted a little toward the south\nbeyond 24 h, and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that\ndirection as well, but now lies just north of the multi-model\nconsensus.\n\nIn the short-term, Sergio is still forecast to gradually weaken\nwhile it moves very little and continues to upwell cold waters.\nBeyond 24 h, the hurricane should reach additional cooler waters to\nthe north, which should cause additional gradual weakening.  In\ngeneral, the intensity guidance is forecasting Sergio to maintain\nits intensity a little longer than previously forecast, so the NHC\nintensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher at 48 h and\n72 h.  It's worth noting that the hurricane would likely maintain\nits intensity longer if it moves a little farther south over warmer\nwaters, and any further adjustments southward to the track forecast\ncould have implications on the intensity forecast.  By Friday\nafternoon, the cyclone should have reached the Baja California\npeninsula and more rapid weakening should follow.  Although the\nlow-level center of Sergio will likely quickly dissipate after\nreaching mainland Mexico, its mid-level remnants and moisture will\ncontinue northeastward, potentially causing heavy rainfall across\nparts of the southwestern United States.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 15.7N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.2N 128.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.9N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 17.7N 125.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 22.9N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 28.0N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 33.5N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":51,"Date":"2018-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  51\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nSatellite and microwave data show that Leslie continues to have a\nsmall central dense overcast, with the latest microwave images\nsuggesting that Leslie is forming a mid-level eye.  Although deep\nconvection has recently decreased somewhat, all of the 00Z intensity\nestimates were 55 kt or higher, so the wind speed is set to that\nvalue.\n\nThere is no significant change in initial motion- still\nsoutheastward at about 12 kt.  Leslie should slow down and turn\ntoward the south-southeast during the next day or two as the cyclone\nbecomes steered by a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.\nA new trough moves into the eastern Atlantic after that time, which\nshould eject Leslie generally east-northeastward to the south of the\nAzores.  Models continue to be in poor agreement on whether that\ntrough will accelerate Leslie quickly to the northeast at long range\nor drop the cyclone to the southwest of Portugal.  The recent\nGFS-based guidance has generally shifted southward and is slower,\nmore in line with the 12Z UK/ECMWF models.  The new NHC forecast\nfollows that trend, but is still on the northern side of the\nconsensus due to continuity concerns, and additional southward\nadjustments could be required on later advisories.\n\nLeslie is forecast to move across marginally warm waters within a\nmoderate shear but a more moist environment over the next few days.\nThese conditions are likely to support slow strengthening, and\nmodel guidance is in general agreement on this scenario.  Only\nminor adjustments were made to the previous forecast, and the NHC\nforecast remains between the intensity consensus and corrected-\nconsensus aids.  By day 5, increasing shear and cold waters\nshould weaken Leslie, and it will probably lose convection to\ntransition into a post-tropical cyclone.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 32.9N  44.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 31.5N  43.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 29.6N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 28.1N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 27.9N  41.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 30.0N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 33.5N  24.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 35.5N  16.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nData from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft this\nevening indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen...despite\nwesterly vertical shear of about 20 kt, which is most unusual. The\nmaximum 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by NOAA so far has\nbeen 102 kt and maximum SFMR surface wind speed was 78 kt. The\ncentral pressure measured by the two aircraft has been fluctuating\nbetween 970 mb and 974 mb, which is likely due to small mesovortices\nrotating around inside the fairly large 35-nmi-wide eye. Given the\naforementioned wind data and the possibility of locally enhanced\nwinds due to the mesovortices, the initial intensity has only been\nincreased to 80 kt rather than 85 kt, which the NOAA flight-level\nwind data would typically support.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 350/11 kt. The steering flow pattern\nisn't forecast to change much, if at all, for the next 36-48 hours,\nwith Michael expected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge\ncentered off of the U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude\nmid-latitude trough over the U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico.\nThe combined deep-layer southerly flow should keep the hurricane\nmoving northward to north-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so.\nShortly thereafter and just prior to landfall, the approaching\nmid-latitude trough is expected to turn Michael toward the\nnorth-northeast or northeast.  By 48 hours and beyond, significant\nacceleration toward the northeast ahead of the trough is forecast to\ncontinue through the 120-h period, with Michael emerging off of the\nU.S. mid-Atlantic coast around 96 hours. The new NHC forecast track\nwas nudged slightly to the east of the previous track through 36 h,\nbased on the more eastward initial position and a forward motion\nthat is still to the right or east of short term motion in the model\nguidance, but is still near the consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and\nNOAA-HCCA. By 48 hours and beyond, the official track is close to\nthe previous advisory track.\n\nMichael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face\nof 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear\ncalculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more\ninertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,\nmaking it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model\nguidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by\n36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during\nthat time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of\n28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of\nthe year. Less-than-normal weakening after landfall in the 48-\nto 96-h period is expected due to Michael's fast forward speed of\n20-30 kt. Re-strengthening as an extratropical low over water on\ndays 4 and 5 is forecast due to baroclinic interaction with a\nfrontal system and the cyclone being back over warm Atlantic waters.\nThe official intensity forecast is a little higher than the\nconsensus models IVCN and HCCA, and is similar to the previous\nadvisory and the FSSE model.\n\nIt should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm\nsurge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,\nintensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still\nuncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge\nforecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible\nscenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of\nMichael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along\nportions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the\nstorm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for\nparts of this area.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic\nsurveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from\nthat mission will be assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models\nruns.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a\nstorm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these\nareas should follow all advice given by their local officials.\n\n2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida\nGulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for\nlife-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.\nDamaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the\nFlorida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as\nMichael moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia and South Carolina.\n\n4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba\nthrough this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.\n\n5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula\nof Mexico during the next couple of days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 23.2N  85.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 24.7N  85.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 26.8N  86.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 29.1N  85.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 31.4N  84.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/0000Z 35.9N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  13/0000Z 41.5N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/0000Z 47.8N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":39,"Date":"2018-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Mon Oct 08 2018\n\nConventional satellite visible and enhanced BD-curve infrared\nimagery reveal a rather large, curved band feature outlining\nabout 90 percent of what once was an enclosed ragged eye.  This\nprimary band is still producing very cold cloud tops, and the\nsatellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the initial\nintensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.\n\nSergio should very slowly spin down during the next 36 hours as it\ntraverses marginally conducive oceanic temperatures.  Beyond that\nperiod, Sergio should enter a region of much cooler sea surface\ntemperatures and increasing southwesterly shear, which should induce\nfurther weakening and at a faster rate.  Toward the end of the week,\nSergio is forecast to move inland over the central Baja California\npeninsula and into northernwestern Mexico in 4 days.  At which time,\nthe cyclone will quickly weaken and degenerate into a remnant low\nover the southwestern United States.  Moisture associated with the\nremnants of Sergio is expected to affect northwestern Mexico and\nportions of the southwest United States over the weekend and could\npotentially cause heavy rainfall in this region.  For more\ninformation about this potential hazard, see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/3 kt.\nSergio should begin accelerating northeastward Tuesday, and\napproach the central Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.\nThe NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is\nclose to the various multi-model consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.0N 128.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 16.5N 127.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 17.2N 126.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 19.7N 122.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 29.3N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  14/0000Z 35.4N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":52,"Date":"2018-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  52\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nLeslie has been steady state overnight.  The low-level center is\nestimated to be on the southern side of a persistent area of deep\nconvection.  The satellite intensity estimates are largely\nunchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving southeastward at 11 kt steered by the\nflow on the southwest side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough.\nThis motion, but a slower pace, is expected during the next 24 to 36\nhours as the trough pulls away.  After that time, another trough is\nexpected to dig southward over the north Atlantic, which should\ncause Leslie to accelerate east-northeastward.  Although the models\nare in fair agreement for the next few days, they remain in in poor\nagreement on whether or not the trough will continue to carry Leslie\neastward or leave the storm behind around day 5.  The GFS and ECMWF\nhave flip flopped, with the GFS now showing Leslie meandering over\nthe east Atlantic by day 5 and the ECMWF moving the system eastward\ntoward Morocco.  The ensemble spread remains large in those two\nglobal models and there has not been much run-to-run consistency\neither.  The NHC track forecast remains near the various consensus\naids, which is usually a good place to be when there is considerable\nuncertainty like this.\n\nLeslie should slowly strengthen during the next few days while\nit moves over slightly warmer waters and into a more moist\nenvironment.  These favorable conditions should allow Leslie to\nbecome a hurricane once again, likely within a day or two.\nWeakening is expected to commence this weekend when Leslie is\nforecast to move over cooler waters and into an atmosphere of\nstronger shear and drier air, and the system is forecast to become\npost-tropical by day 5.  However, the long range intensity forecast\nis strongly linked to where Leslie will be, so since the track\nforecast is uncertain, the intensity prediction is likewise.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 32.2N  43.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 30.8N  43.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 29.2N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 28.1N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 28.4N  40.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 31.2N  33.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 33.5N  23.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 34.0N  17.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft a few\nhours ago indicate that Michael's strengthening has paused, with\nthe maximum winds near 80 kt and a central pressure near 973 mb.\nThe aircraft also reported that the eyewall had become less\norganized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment and shear.\nThe latest satellite imagery shows the convective banding becoming\nbetter defined, and the next aircraft will shortly arrive in the\nhurricane to provide better information on whether intensification\nhas resumed.\n\nThe initial motion is now 345/10.  There is little change in either\nthe forecast philosophy from the previous advisory, as Michael\nexpected to remain caught between a deep-layer ridge centered off of\nthe U.S. east coast and a highly amplitude mid-latitude trough over\nthe U.S. Plains states and northern Mexico. This pattern should\nsteer the hurricane north-northwestward to northward for the next 24\nh or so, followed by a turn to the northeast as Michael recurves\ninto the westerlies.  Only minor tweaks have been made to the\nprevious forecast track, with Michael expected to make landfall in\nthe Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and cross the southeastern United\nStates Wednesday night and Thursday.\n\nThe large-scale models continue to forecast a decrease in the shear\nlater today, and thus Michael is forecast to intensify further\nbefore landfall.  The new intensity forecast follows the previous\nforecast in showing Michael as a category 3 hurricane at landfall.\nThe cyclone should weaken significantly as it crosses the\nsoutheastern United States, then it should re-intensify over the\nwestern Atlantic as it undergoes extratropical transition between\n72-96 h.\n\nIt should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm\nsurge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,\nintensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still\nuncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge\nforecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible\nscenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of\nMichael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along\nportions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the\nstorm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for\nparts of this area.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently conducting a synoptic\nsurveillance mission over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from\nthat mission will be assimilated into the 1200 UTC numerical models\nruns.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a\nstorm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these\nareas should follow all advice given by their local officials.\n\n2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida\nGulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for\nlife-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.\nDamaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the\nFlorida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as\nMichael moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia and South Carolina.\n\n4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of western\nCuba for a few more hours.\n\n5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 24.1N  85.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 29.9N  85.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 32.3N  83.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/0600Z 36.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\n 96H  13/0600Z 42.5N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/0600Z 49.0N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":40,"Date":"2018-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nSergio's cloud pattern has changed little in the past 6 hours and is\ncomprised of a fragmented, large outer ring, about 100 n mi in\ndiameter.  The coldest cloud tops are now confined to just the\nsoutheast portion of cyclone's circulation.  The Dvorak satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the\ninitial intensity at 75 kt.\n\nSome slow weakening, or possibly very little change in strength, is\nexpected during the next 36 hours as Sergio traverses marginally\nconducive oceanic temperatures and remains in a low shear\nsurrounding environment.  Afterward, the cyclone should enter a\nregion of much cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing\nsouthwesterly shear, which should influence significant weakening\nand reducing Sergio to a tropical storm prior to landfall.  Sergio\nis forecast to move inland over Baja California Sur on Friday and\ninto the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early Saturday.  At\nthe end of the forecast period, Sergio is expected to further\ndegenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States.\nThe intensity forecast is weighed heavily on the NOAA-HCCA and the\nGFS and ECMWF global models which show Sergio making landfall as a\ntropical storm.\n\nMoisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to\naffect northwestern Mexico and portions of the southwest United\nStates over the weekend and could potentially cause heavy rainfall\nin this region.  For more information about this potential hazard,\nsee products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS\nforecast office.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/5 kt.\nSergio should begin accelerating in the aforementioned direction\nthis morning, and approach the central Baja California peninsula in\nabout 3 days.  There is high confidence in the forecast track as the\navailable global and regional models are clustered tightly together\nthrough day 5.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance\ncluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 16.3N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 16.7N 127.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 17.6N 125.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 18.8N 123.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 20.7N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 25.1N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 30.0N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  14/0600Z 36.3N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-10-09 10:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen Special Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n600 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nGeostationary satellite and recent microwave data indicate that the\nlow pressure system over the eastern Atlantic Ocean has developed\nsufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of\ncirculation to be considered a tropical depression, the fifteenth\none of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season.  The initial intensity is\nset at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak 2.0/30 kt classifications\nfrom both TAFB and SAB.  The depression is expected to strengthen a\nlittle during the next 36 to 48 hours while it remains in favorable\noceanic and atmospheric conditions.  Thereafter, a significant\nincrease in west-southwesterly shear, drier air, and slightly cooler\nSSTs should cause weakening.  The global models all show the\ndepression opening up into a trough by day 5, and the official\nforecast predicts dissipation accordingly.\n\nThe initial motion is uncertain since the system just formed a\nwell-defined center, but my best guess is 285/10 kt.  The\ndepression is expected to turn northwestward tonight and continue in\nthat general direction on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves\ntoward a broad trough over the central Atlantic, the same one that\nLeslie is embedded in.  After that time, when the system weakens and\nbecomes shallow, a turn back to the left is forecast.  The models\nare in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1000Z 10.3N  29.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 10.6N  30.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 11.3N  32.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 12.4N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 13.6N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 16.1N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 17.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":53,"Date":"2018-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  53\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nRecent Dvorak fixes and ASCAT data indicate that Leslie's maximum\nwinds remain around 55 kt. Although the winds have not yet\nincreased, the surface center of the tropical storm has become more\nembedded within its cold cloud tops and several recent microwave\noverpasses indicate that the cyclone is beginning to establish an\ninner-core. Strengthening is therefore still expected, and Leslie is\nforecast to become a hurricane by tomorrow. The tropical storm is\ncurrently moving south-southeastward at around 11 kt, and the models\nare in good agreement that a south-southeastward to southward motion\nwill continue for the next 24 h or so.\n\nBeginning around 36 h, both the track and intensity forecasts become\nvery uncertain.  In general, most of the global models and their\nensembles indicate that Leslie will begin to accelerate toward the\neast-northeast or northeast by Thursday as a mid-latitude trough\napproaches from the northwest, however the timing and extent of the\ninteraction is still highly variable from model to model. Based on\nthe GFS and ECMWF ensembles, a range of possibilities exists, from\nLeslie essentially merging with this trough and becoming\nextratropical over the far northeast Atlantic, to Leslie interacting\nwith the trough very little and continuing to meander over the\ncentral Atlantic.  There has been a significant change in the\nconsensus aids to show a slower track for Leslie based on recent\nshifts in the deterministic models, but the NHC track forecast has\nnot been changed nearly as much, out of respect for continuity and\nthe high uncertainty in the forecast.\n\nThe low confidence in the track forecast beyond 36 h affects the\nintensity forecast as well, since it is unclear what environment the\nstorm will be located within.  The intensity forecast is therefore\nheld near the intensity consensus, and still calls for steady\nstrengthening during the next several days, followed by weakening by\nthe end of the forecast period.  If Leslie moves as far east as\nshown in the NHC track forecast, it would likely become a post-\ntropical low by day 5, as shown explicitly in the forecast. However,\nuntil confidence in the track increases, I can't rule out that\nLeslie could remain a tropical cyclone almost indefinitely if it\ncontinues meandering over the northern Atlantic.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 31.3N  43.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 29.9N  42.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 28.5N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 28.1N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 28.9N  39.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 32.0N  31.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 33.5N  22.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 33.5N  18.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nMichael has continued to become better organized this morning.  The\nhurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more\napparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery.  Data from both\nNOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show\nthat the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend\nof the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of\n95 kt for this advisory.  With two aircraft in the storm, they have\nbeen able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times\nthis morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind\nfield.  The planes actually passed through the eye around the same\ntime just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one\nanother.\n\nThe outflow pattern has become better established over the\nhurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly\nshear.  The shear should continue to decrease, and further\nstrengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday.  Michael is\nexpected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a\ndangerous major hurricane through landfall.  Significant weakening\nshould occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United\nStates, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected\nwhen the system moves over the western Atlantic.\n\nMichael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.\nThe track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several\nadvisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early\nWednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer\ntrough over the central United States.  As the trough moves eastward\nit will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday.  The\nhurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it\nbecomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance\nis in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some\ndifferences in forward speed thereafter.  The GFS and ECMWF have\ntrended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been\nadjusted accordingly.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a\nstorm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will\nrise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within\nthe storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect\nlife and property today.\n\n2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf\nCoast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds\nassociated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also\nextend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,\nsouthern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia and South Carolina.\n\n4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding\nover portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 25.0N  86.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 26.7N  86.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 28.8N  86.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 30.8N  85.1W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  13/1200Z 44.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/1200Z 50.0N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 AM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of the cyclone features a curved band that wraps\naround the eastern and southern parts of the circulation. Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are both T2.5/35 kt, and that is used\nfor the initial intensity, making the system a tropical storm. The\nenvironment appears conducive for some additional strengthening\nduring the next 24 hours or so, with SSTs above 28C and generally\nlight to moderate westerly shear. After that time, the shear\nincreases to 25-30 kt and SSTs along the forecast track fall below\n27C by 72 hours. These factors should result in weakening, and all\nof the global models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 to 5 days.\nThe NHC forecast follows these trends and is close to the various\nconsensus aids through the forecast period.\n\nBased on geostationary imagery and a 0815Z SSMIS pass, the initial\nmotion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 285/08, with Nadine\ncurrently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. The ridge will\nweaken as a mid/upper-level trough that Leslie is embedded in digs\nsouthward along 40W longitude. This pattern will cause Nadine to\nturn more northwestward by 24 hours. By 96 hours, a weakening Nadine\nshould bend back to the west as a shallow system. The new NHC track\nforecast is a bit to the right of the previous one due to the new\ninitial position, and lies near HCCA through 48 hours and closer to\nthe TVCA multi-model consensus after that time.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 10.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 11.1N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 11.9N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 13.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 14.3N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 16.7N  36.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 18.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":41,"Date":"2018-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Sergio Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nSergio appears to have resumed its slow weakening.  Cloud tops on\nthe western half of the hurricane have warmed, and Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased.  However, recent\nAMSR-2 and SSMIS images indicate that the hurricane still has a\nlarge but well-defined inner-core in the low and mid-levels.  The\ninitial intensity is set at 70 kt, based on a blend of Final-T and\nCI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON\nestimate.\n\nThere has been almost no change to the intensity forecast and only\nvery gradual weakening is forecast during the next 36 to 48 h.\nBeyond that time, Sergio will pass over colder SSTs, including the\nstill-present cold wake of former Hurricane Rosa, and continued\nweakening is expected as the cyclone approaches the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.  Sergio is therefore still forecast to be a\ntropical storm when it reaches the west coast of the Baja California\npeninsula in a few days.  Rapid weakening is likely after Sergio\nmakes its final landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico late this\nweek, and the cyclone will likely dissipate or become a remnant low\nshortly after moving inland.\n\nVirtually no change has been made to the track forecast, which\nremains near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.  All of the global\nand regional models show that Sergio will accelerate generally\nnortheastward for the next 3 days, approaching the Baja California\npeninsula on Friday.  There is still some disagreement among the\nmodels regarding the exact speed of Sergio through that time, but\nthere is very little cross-track spread.  Confidence in the track\nforecast is fairly high.\n\nMoisture associated with the remnants of Sergio is expected to\naffect portions of northwestern Mexico, the southwestern United\nStates, and the U.S. southern plains over the weekend and could\npotentially cause heavy rainfall in this region. For more\ninformation about this potential hazard, see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 16.6N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 17.1N 126.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 26.2N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 31.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":54,"Date":"2018-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number  54\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nLeslie's appearance on visible imagery has improved through the\nafternoon, and multiple microwave overpasses show the development of\na small mid-level eye.  The intensity has been increased to 60 kt\nbased on an average of the most recent Dvorak classifications from\nTAFB and SAB.  Leslie is moving over warmer waters and the wind\nshear is expected to be low, so additional strengthening is\nanticipated and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane overnight.\nGiven the relatively favorable environment and the recent\norganization of Leslie's inner-core, it is possible that Leslie\ncould intensify a little faster than currently indicated by the NHC\nforecast. Beyond day 2, there is particularly low confidence in the\nintensity forecast since the track of Leslie is highly uncertain,\nand the NHC forecast essentially follows the intensity consensus. It\nis likely that the farther south and west Leslie remains, the\nstronger it will be.\n\nUnfortunately the track forecast has not become any clearer.\nRecent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts still indicate that a range\nof possibilities exist, from Leslie becoming extratropical and\nheading toward the extreme northeast Atlantic, to Leslie turning\nback west in a few days and persisting as a tropical cyclone.  No\nlarge changes were made to the track forecast at this time, since I\nsee no reason to commit to a new solution at this time.  The NHC\nforecast is close to HCCA at all forecast hours, but confidence is\nlow to say the least.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 30.3N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 29.0N  42.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 28.0N  42.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 28.1N  41.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 29.2N  38.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 32.0N  29.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 33.0N  22.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 31.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nThe eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and\ninfrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a\nlittle more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has\ncontinue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of\nthe eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air\nForce Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb\nflight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited\nthe storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane\nHunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and\nreported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a\nminimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours.\nBased on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of\n115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial\nintensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive\nfor additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours.  There\nmay be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears\nthe Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant\ndecrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue\nto deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that\nsome additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity\nforecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with\nthe SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening\nshould occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United\nStates, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the\nwestern Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a\nfront and becomes extratropical on Friday.\n\nMichael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about\n10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then\nnortheastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central\nUnited States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies\nin 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east-\nnortheastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over\nthe weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model\nguidance, and little change was required to the official forecast.\nAlthough the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday\nafternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern\nGulf Coast tonight.\n\nTropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward\nalong the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North\nCarolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be\nissued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North\nCarolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects\nthose areas.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where\na storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is\nexpected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet\nof inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of\nthe center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning\narea should finish preparations to protect life and property today.\n\n2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf\nCoast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds\nassociated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also\nextend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,\nsouthern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.\n\n4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the\nsoutheast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,\nand tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these\nareas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 26.0N  86.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 27.6N  86.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 29.7N  85.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 31.8N  84.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  11/1800Z 33.9N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/1800Z 39.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  13/1800Z 45.5N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/1800Z 50.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n500 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nNadine is a sheared tropical cyclone this afternoon with the center\npartially exposed on the southwestern side of an increasing area of\nconvection. Dvorak estimates are unchanged since earlier, so the\ninitial wind speed remains 35 kt. The shear is forecast to remain\nlow enough to support strengthening during the next day or so, along\nwith sufficiently warm waters.  However, Nadine should encounter a\nlarge upper trough after that time, which should cause weakening to\nbegin on Thursday. Later on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are\nexpected to cause Nadine to degenerate into a trough of low pressure\nby the weekend. Model guidance is in fair agreement on this\nscenario, and the new NHC prediction is close to the previous one\nand the model consensus.\n\nSatellite imagery today shows that Nadine has turned rightward and\nis moving 300/7.  A northwestward track should begin overnight and\ncontinue for the next few days due to steering from a mid-level\nridge near the Cabo Verde Islands.  A westward turn is expected\nbeyond day 3 as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates.  The\ntrack forecast isn't super confident because it is somewhat\ndependent on the intensity. For example, a stronger cyclone like the\nGFS shows would have the potential to move more toward the north-\nnorthwest as it attempts to remain a vertically coherent system.\nSince Nadine isn't expected to get very strong, the official\nforecast will stay near or just south of the model consensus, which\nresults in no significant change to the previous track forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 10.9N  30.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 11.6N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 12.6N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 13.7N  33.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.0N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 17.0N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":42,"Date":"2018-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nDays of slow movement and cold water upwelling appear to have\nfinally taken a toll on Sergio.  Cloud top temperatures on the west\nside of the cyclone have warmed considerably since this morning,\nand microwave imagery indicates that Sergio's eyewall is no\nlonger fully closed.  Dvorak-based intensity estimates have\ndecreased accordingly and now support an initial intensity of only\n60 kt.  A recent partial ASCAT overpass also showed maximum winds\nof only 50-55 kt in the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, and\nthese data also support making Sergio a tropical storm.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving east-northeastward, or 060/8 kt.\nNo important changes were made to the track forecast, which is\nmerely an update of the previous advisory.  The tropical storm will\nlikely continue to accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast\nover the next few days, before approaching the Baja California\npeninsula on Friday. The NHC forecast remains near the track\nconsensus at all times and confidence in the track forecast is high.\n\nNow that Sergio is moving a little faster, it has a chance to move\nover slightly warmer waters during the next few hours.  The\nintensity guidance is in fairly good agreement that little\nadditional weakening is likely for the next day or so.  Beyond 36\nh, faster weakening is still possible as the storm reaches much\ncolder waters and the shear over the tropical storm increases.\nRapid weakening and dissipation is expected after Sergio makes its\nfinal landfall along the coast of mainland Mexico, though a 96 h\npoint remnant low is maintained again in this advisory to represent\nthe inland movement of Sergio.  The NHC forecast is essentially an\naverage of the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids at all forecast hours.\n\nThe biggest hazard associated with Sergio and its remnants will\nlikely be heavy rain that will affect portions of northwestern\nMexico and the U.S. Southern Plains through Sunday.  For more\ninformation about this potential hazard, see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 16.9N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 17.5N 125.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 18.7N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 20.3N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 22.7N 118.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 27.3N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 31.0N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":55,"Date":"2018-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  55\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nSatellite and microwave data indicate that Leslie has become a\nhurricane again, almost exactly a week after it did the first time.\nA WindSat pass from earlier today showed the development of an eye\nfeature, and with the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at\nhurricane strength, the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt.  The\nlatest GOES-16 proxy visible imagery suggests that a ragged eye has\nformed, although the eyewall is open on the southwestern side.\n\nLeslie is atypically intensifying while moving south-southeastward\nat 8 kt.  The hurricane should continue to lose latitude for a day\nor so then get accelerated east-northeastward by a mid-latitude\ntrough until Friday.  After that time, there is a ginormous spread\nin the model ensembles with Leslie's final destination ranging from\nIreland all the way to missing the trough and turning around to the\nsouthwest due to a building eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge.\nCompared to 12 hours ago, more of the ensemble members are showing\nLeslie getting left behind, which is also reflected in the latest\ndeterministic runs as well.  Something tells me that Leslie has at\nleast one more trick up its sleeve, so the official forecast shows\nthis trend, but is very low confidence.\n\nWith fairly low shear and marginally warm waters for the next day\nor two, there is no reason to expect that Leslie won't continue to\nintensify.  Model guidance is higher than the last cycle, with the\nnormally conservative ECMWF and GFS models even suggesting that\nLeslie becomes a category 2 hurricane in a couple of days.  Most of\nthe rest of the guidance is lower than those models, but the\nintensity forecast is shaded in the direction of the ECMWF/GFS,\nand is higher than the last NHC prediction.  After that time, an\nincrease in shear and lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It\nis even possible it will become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5,\nbut I'm not going to show that at this time since I was too\npremature last night in this transition.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 29.5N  42.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 28.4N  42.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 28.0N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 28.6N  39.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 29.9N  36.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 32.2N  27.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 32.0N  21.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 30.0N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nData from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this\nafternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a\nrapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a\ndecrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those\npressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye\nhas become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared\nsatellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures\ncolder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops\nin the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive\nfor a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by\nthe NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR\nsurface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as\nthe peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a\ncentral pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased\nto 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along\nwith objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an\nintensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would\nsupport a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has\nnot measured thus far.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is\nessentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no\nsignificant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The\nmodels have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for\nMichael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next\n24 hours between a  substantial ridge to the east and a highly\namplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and\ncentral U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous\nhurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and\nmake landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by\nlate Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly\nflow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to\naccelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the\ncyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and\nThursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A\ncontinued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is\nforecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical\ncyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of\nthe previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed\nconsensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA.\n\nSimilar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael\nis expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until\nlandfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the\nhurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with\nthe shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less\nhostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's\nforecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to\nbecome a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After\nlandfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over\nthe southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to\nre-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing\nafter it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.\nThe new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN,\nHCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period.\n\nTropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane\nwarning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be\nrushed to completion.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where\na storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is\nexpected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet\nof inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of\nthe center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning\narea should finish preparations to protect life and property today.\n\n2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf\nCoast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds\nassociated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also\nextend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,\nsouthern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.\n\n4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the\nsoutheast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,\nand tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these\nareas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 27.1N  86.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 28.7N  86.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 30.8N  84.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  11/1200Z 33.0N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  12/0000Z 35.2N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  13/0000Z 40.8N  65.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/0000Z 47.2N  44.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/0000Z 51.2N  24.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nDeep convection has been increasing in the eastern semicircle of\nNadine, with the center close to the western edge of large\nconvective band.  Overall, the satellite presentation has improved\nin the past several hours, although the outflow is limited west of\nthe center.  While subjective estimates are unchanged from the last\nadvisory, microwave-based estimates suggest Nadine is somewhat\nstronger, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt.  Light or\nmoderate shear is anticipated during the next day or so, along\nwith sufficiently warm waters, which should promote strengthening.\nHowever, Nadine should encounter a large upper trough after that\ntime, which will likely cause weakening to begin on Thursday. Later\non, cooler SSTs and strong shear are expected to cause Nadine to\ndegenerate into a trough of low pressure by the weekend.  The most\nsignificant change is that the model guidance is notably higher\nthan the last cycle, with a few models even making Nadine a\nhurricane eventually.  That seems unlikely given the strength of\nthe forecast shear, but the forecast is nudged higher than the\nprevious one and the model consensus.\n\nNadine continues to turn rightward and is now moving northwestward\nat about 7 kt.  This general course is forecast for the next couple\nof days due to steering from a mid-level ridge near the Cabo Verde\nIslands.  After that time, a west-northwestward or westward turn is\nexpected as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates.  The\nmodel spread is still fairly wide, with the stronger guidance\ngenerally on the eastern side of the model envelope, and the weaker\nguidance on the western side.  There is definitely a slight trend\nto the northeast with the latest model guidance, and since we are\nexpecting a stronger system, the official forecast is adjusted in\nthat direction, but not nearly as far to the right as most of the\nGFS-based guidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 11.6N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 12.3N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 13.4N  32.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 14.8N  33.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 16.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 17.5N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":43,"Date":"2018-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Tue Oct 09 2018\n\nThe GOES-15 satellite presentation and an earlier ATMS polar\norbiter microwave image revealed little change in Sergio's cloud\npattern during the past 6 hours.  Deep convection persists in the\nnorth semicircle in the form of a rather large curved band while the\nsouthern portion is comprised of fragmented bands.  A blend of the\nDvorak satellite classifications, which haven't changed much,\nsupports holding the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory.\n\nVery little change in strength is forecast during the next 6-12\nhours, as Sergio traverses relatively warm oceanic temperatures and\nremains in a low shear surrounding environment.  Afterward,\nstatistical and dynamical intensity guidance shows weakening through\nthe 48 period, or prior to landfall, as the cyclone moves over\ncooler waters and into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical\nshear.  Over the weekend, after quickly moving over Baja California\nSur, Sergio will weaken further over the state of Sonora in\nnorthwestern Mexico, degenerate into a remnant low by day 4, and\ndissipate over the Southern Plains of the United States.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 060/10\nkt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a\nmid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern\nPacific from the southwestern United States.  Sergio should continue\nto accelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next\nfew days, moving over Baja California Sur on Friday, and over the\nGulf of California and into northwestern Mexico Friday night and\nSaturday.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will\nlikely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S.\nSouthern Plains and the Ozarks through the weekend.  For more\ninformation about this potential hazard, see products from the\nWeather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 17.5N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 21.7N 119.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 24.1N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 28.7N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  14/0000Z 33.0N 101.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":56,"Date":"2018-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  56\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nGeostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Leslie\nhas a large and ragged banded eye feature with deep convection most\norganized over the northern semicircle.  Since the Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 4.0/65 kt, the\ninitial wind speed is held at that value.  Leslie has another day or\ntwo to strengthen while it remains in low wind shear conditions and\nover marginally warm waters.  After that time, an increase in shear\nand lower SSTs should cause Leslie to weaken. It is possible that\nLeslie could become a post-tropical cyclone by day 5, but confidence\nis not high on that occurring.  The NHC intensity forecast is\nlargely an update of the previous one and it lies at the high end of\nthe model guidance.\n\nLeslie is now moving southward at 9 kt in the flow on the southwest\nside of a broad mid- to upper-level trough.  A slower south-\nsoutheastward motion is expected during the day today as the\ntrough pulls away.  A turn to the east-northeast is expected tonight\nas another trough approaches Leslie from the northwest, and that\nmotion with an increase in forward speed is expected through early\nthis weekend.  After that time, the models are coming into better\nagreement in showing Leslie being left behind and moving\nsouthwestward on Sunday and Monday as a ridge builds to its\nnorthwest.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted southward at days 3\nto 5 to be closer to the latest consensus aids.  Although the\ndeterministic models are in better agreement this cycle, there is\nstill a lot of spread in the GFS and ECMWF ensemble members and\nconfidence in the track forecast remains fairly low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 28.6N  42.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 28.0N  42.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 28.1N  40.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 29.1N  38.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 30.5N  34.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 31.5N  25.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 30.5N  21.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  15/0600Z 28.5N  23.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\nindicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past\nseveral hours.  The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been\n136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped\nFrequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range.  In\naddition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb.  Based on\non the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.\nThis is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,\nSAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus.  The cirrus outflow\nassociated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,\nwith the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast\nand along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.\n\nThe initial motion is 360/11.  Michael is embedded in the flow\nbetween a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic\nand the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough\nacross the central United States.  These features should cause the\nhurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,\nfollowed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase\nin forward speed.  Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or\nits remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for\nthe eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h\npoint, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern\nUnited States between 12-48 h.  The forecast guidance remains\ntightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the\nprevious track and the various consensus models through 72 h.\n\nAdditional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael\nremains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate\nvertical shear.  After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily\nweaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.  Extratropical\ntransition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and\nthis should be complete just after the 48 h point.  The cyclone\nshould re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly\nnortheastward over the north Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast\nhas been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current\ntrends.  Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.\n\nTropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane\nwarning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should\nbe rushed to completion.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the\ncoasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where\na storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is\nexpected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to\n13 feet of inundation is possible.\n\n2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind\ndamage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida\nPanhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should\nprepare for life-threatening hurricane winds.  Dangerous hurricane-\nforce winds will also extend well inland across portions of the\nFlorida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as\nMichael moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.\n\n4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the\nsoutheast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,\nand tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these\nareas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 28.3N  86.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 29.9N  85.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  11/1800Z 34.4N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  12/0600Z 36.8N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  13/0600Z 43.5N  59.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/0600Z 49.5N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/0600Z 52.0N  17.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n500 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nNadine continues to gradually strengthen.  Microwave images indicate\nthat the storm is beginning to develop an inner core with a\nconcentrated area of deep convection noted in infrared satellite\nimagery.  The initial intensity is raised to 45 kt, in agreement\nwith 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Nadine has\nabout another day to strengthen while it remains in favorable\natmospheric conditions of low wind shear and high moisture, and over\nwarm waters.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and IVCN\nguidance and brings Nadine to 55 kt during that time period.\nThereafter, the global models all show a sharp increase in\nsouthwesterly shear and that should end the opportunity for\nstrengthening and cause weakening.  The combination of strong shear,\ndrier air, and slightly cooler SSTs should cause the cyclone to open\ninto a trough in 3 to 4 days, or perhaps even sooner.\n\nThe compact storm is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt, and the\ncenter is a little to the right of the previous forecast track.  A\ncontinued northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the\nnext couple of days while Nadine moves toward a trough over the\neast-central Atlantic, the same trough that Leslie is embedded in.\nAfter that time, the weak and shallow system should turn to the left\nuntil dissipation.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a\nlittle to the right of the previous one due to the more northward\ninitial motion and position.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 12.1N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 12.8N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 13.9N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.1N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 16.0N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 17.3N  38.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":44,"Date":"2018-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  44\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nThis morning's conventional satellite presentation reveals little\nchange in Sergio's cloud pattern. The majority of the deep\nconvection resides in the north portion of the circulation with some\nnew bursts developing in the south semicircle. Consequently, the\ninitial intensity will be kept again at 60 kt, and is supported by\nthe TAFB and SAB Dvorak intensity estimates.\n\nGradual spin down of the cyclone is still expected to commence soon\nas Sergio begins its trek over decreasing sea surface temperatures\nand into a region of increasing southwesterly vertical shear and a\ndrier mid-level troposphere. Over the weekend, after quickly moving\nover the central Baja California peninsula, Sergio should weaken\nfurther over the state of Sonora in northwestern Mexico, degenerate\ninto a remnant low early Sunday, and is forecast to dissipate over\nthe Southern Plains of the United States, although this dissipation\ncould occur sooner, as indicated in the European global models.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be east-northeastward, or 065/10\nkt, within the mid-tropospheric southwesterly flow produced by a\nmid-latitude trough extending southwestward over the eastern Pacific\nfrom the southwestern United States. Sergio should continue to\naccelerate toward the east-northeast or northeast over the next few\ndays, and approach Baja California Sur on early Friday. The NHC\nforecast is basically an update of the previous advisory and is\nclose to the various multi-model consensus aids.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants will\nlikely be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern\nPlains and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information\nabout this potential hazard, see products from the Weather\nPrediction Center and your local weather forecast office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 17.5N 124.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 18.8N 122.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 20.6N 120.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 25.4N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 30.3N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  14/0600Z 34.5N  97.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":57,"Date":"2018-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  57\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nLeslie has continued to get better organized this morning, and\nseveral recent microwave overpasses indicate that the hurricane is\nmaintaining a well-defined mid-level eye.  However, objective and\nsubjective intensity estimates have not increased, so the intensity\nhas been held at 65 kt.  All of the intensity guidance forecasts\nthat Leslie will resume intensifying later today.  Given that the\nhurricane is located in a low shear environment and crossing over\nthe warmest waters it has encountered in days, this seems very\nlikely.  No change was made to the intensity forecast through 48 h.\nBeyond that time, the intensity forecast is still tied to the track\nforecast, and the farther south and west Leslie remains, the\nstronger it will likely be.  Extratropical transition also can not\nbe ruled out, which would likely result in a higher intensity by day\n5 that indicated by the NHC forecast. The official intensity\nforecast is still close to the model consensus through day 5, but a\nlarge range of possibilities exists by that time, from Leslie\nbecoming a weak post-tropical low, to maintaining near hurricane\nstrength.\n\nThe spread in the track guidance is still very large and confidence\nin the track forecast is low.  The most recent ECMWF ensemble has a\n5-day spread of over 1500 n mi, while the 5-day GFS ensemble spread\nis over 1300 n mi.  Leslie is forecast to slow down today and turn\ntoward the east-northeast.  A faster motion in that direction is\nanticipated by tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough approaches from\nthe northwest.  Leslie will then either undergo extratropical\ntransition and lift northward, continue westward and become a\nremnant low, or separate from the trough and turn back west.  The\nNHC forecast is near the track consensus at all times and no large\nchanges to the forecast were made since the future track of the\ncyclone has not become more clear.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 27.8N  42.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 27.8N  41.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 28.4N  39.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 29.6N  36.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 30.7N  31.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 31.5N  23.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 29.5N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  15/1200Z 27.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nMichael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared\nsatellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and\nbecome even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area\nof very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane\nHunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall\nthis morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS\nWSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The\nhurricane only has a few hours left over water during which\nadditional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery\nsuggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could\nslow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening\nis predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael\nwill bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida\nPanhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the\ncirculation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due\nto baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its\ntransition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the\nU.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a\npowerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at\nleast day 4.\n\nAircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much\nanticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected\nto make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this\nafternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate\nas it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving\nacross the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is\nforecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move\nrapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this\nweekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the\nupdated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.\n\nTropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.\nEast Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,\nand advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards\nnorth of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be\npost-tropical when it affects those areas.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the\nFlorida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge\nis expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base\nand Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.\n\n2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage\nwhere the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the\nFlorida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and\nPanama City.\n\n3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland\nacross portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and\nsouthwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland\nlater today and this evening.\n\n4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.\n\n5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast\nU.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and\ntropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 29.4N  86.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 31.3N  84.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  11/1200Z 33.6N  82.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  12/0000Z 35.8N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  12/1200Z 38.7N  71.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  13/1200Z 45.5N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/1200Z 49.0N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/1200Z 50.0N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nSeveral microwave overpasses after 0600 UTC indicated that Nadine\nvery quickly developed a well-defined mid-level eye overnight.\nThis signature is typically associated with strengthening tropical\ncyclones. Although more recent visible imagery indicates that strong\nshear has since caused the cyclone to become tilted with height, a\npair of ASCAT passes around 1200 UTC indicated maximum winds of\n45-50 kt.  Given the small size of the tropical storm, the ASCAT\nlikely under-sampled the true maximum, so the initial intensity has\nbeen raised to 55 kt.  Due to limitations in our ability to observe\nthe intensity of small tropical storms far from land, it should be\nnoted that this estimate is fairly uncertain.\n\nSince the tropical storm appears to have become more tilted since\nlast night, further strengthening is not likely.  Shear analysis\nfrom UW-CIMSS shows that Nadine is moving into a region of 20-30 kt\nof westerly shear, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the shear\ncould increase to near 40 kt in another couple of days.  All of the\nintensity guidance indicates that Nadine will weaken quickly by\ntomorrow, and it could become a depression by 72 h.  Dissipation\nwill likely follow shortly after, as shown by nearly all of the\nglobal and regional models.\n\nThe aforementioned ASCAT passes were very helpful in locating the\ncenter of Nadine at 1200 UTC, and the tropical storm is moving\nnorthwestward, or 325/6 kt.  A northwestward to north-northwestward\nmotion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next day or\ntwo.  By Friday, a turn toward the west will likely begin as the\nlow-level circulation of Nadine becomes separated from its\nconvection and turns westward in the low-level easterlies. Nadine\nis essentially on the track of the previous NHC forecast, and no\nsignificant changes to the track forecast were required.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 12.6N  31.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 13.5N  32.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 14.6N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.7N  33.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 16.5N  35.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 17.5N  39.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":45,"Date":"2018-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern associated with Sergio has not changed very much,\nand it consists of a cyclonically curved convective band surrounding\na large and ragged eye feature. Since the convection is weaker, the\nDvorak estimates suggest that winds are gradually decreasing, and\nthe initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt.  Some fluctuations\nin intensity are likely during the next 12 to 24 hours while the\ncyclone is still moving over relatively warm waters and is embedded\nin a low shear environment. Both of these factors will become\nunfavorable soon, and consequently, the NHC forecast calls for\nweakening.  Sergio, however, is expected to still be a tropical\nstorm by the time it approaches the Baja California peninsula. After\nthat time, Sergio will move over mainland Mexico and weaken much\nfaster.\n\nSergio is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 11 kt. The\ncyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated\nwith a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will\ncontinue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in\nforward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened\nSergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in\nabout 2 days, but winds along the coast are anticipated to increase\nearlier. Track models are in very good agreement, and consequently\nthe guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast is not\ndifferent from the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico state of Sonora, the U.S. Southern\nPlains, and the Ozarks through the weekend. For more information\nabout this potential hazard, see products from the Weather\nPrediction Center and your local weather forecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 18.4N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 19.7N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 24.5N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 31.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":58,"Date":"2018-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  58\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nLeslie has held nearly steady since this morning. Recent microwave\ndata indicate that the cyclone still has a fairly well-defined\ninner-core that has persisted, though the deepest convection has\nfluctuated since last night. Satellite intensity estimates have\nfluctuated with the convection, but still support an initial value\nof 65 kt for this advisory. The last few IR and visible images\nbefore sunset suggest that Leslie may be developing a banding eye,\nand it's possible the intensity estimate is a little conservative.\n\nThe track uncertainty is hopefully beginning to decrease a little.\nThe most recent GFS and ECMWF ensembles are converging on a solution\nwhere Leslie accelerates east-northeastward on the south side of a\nmid-latitude trough, before separating from the trough over the\nweekend. The cyclone could then turn southward, and eventually back\nwestward as a much weaker tropical cyclone or remnant low. This is\ngenerally consistent with previous NHC forecasts, so no large\nchanges were required to the NHC forecast which is heavily based on\nthe HFIP Corrected Consensus.\n\nLeslie is still expected to strengthen soon, and there has been no\nsignificant change to the intensity forecast. By 72 h, if not\nsooner, the hurricane will begin to encounter colder ocean waters\nand high shear, which should cause it to weaken. If Leslie follows\nthe forecast track, it is possible that the system could become a\npost-tropical remnant low by early next week, and this is forecast\nby some of the global models. However, this is not explicitly shown\nin the NHC forecast and Leslie's strength and status early next week\nwill likely heavily depend on its track at that time. The official\nforecast is close to the intensity consensus at all forecast hours,\nand the intensity model spread is not very large.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 27.8N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 28.0N  40.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 29.0N  38.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 30.4N  33.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 31.5N  28.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 32.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 30.0N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  15/1800Z 27.0N  26.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nData from an Air Force Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and\nNWS WSR-88D radar data showed that Michael continued to strengthen\nuntil it made landfall around 1730 UTC (12:30 PM CDT) along the\ncoast of the Florida Panhandle between Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air\nForce Base. The aircraft found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of\n152 kt during its final pass through southeast eyewall just before\nMichael made landfall. There were SFMR measurements of 132-138 kt,\nbut the validity of those observations are questionable since they\noccurred in shallow water and were flagged. The landfall intensity\nwas estimated at 135 kt (155 mph), which makes Michael the strongest\nhurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Andrew\n(1992). The minimum pressure at landfall was estimated at 919 mb,\nwhich is the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States.  A\nUniversity of Florida/Weatherflow observing site measured a minimum\npressure of 920.2 mb.\n\nNow that the entire eyewall has moved over land, the Doppler radar\nvelocities have decreased and the initial intensity has been lowered\nto 110 kt.  Although steady weakening is expected as Michael moves\nover the southeast U.S. through Thursday morning, hurricane-force\nwinds will continue to penetrate inland over the Florida Panhandle,\nsoutheastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia through this evening.\nThe circulation is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic\nThursday night and Friday, where intensification as an extratropical\ncyclone is expected. The extratropical low is expected to remain\nquite strong while to moves over the north Atlantic through the\nweekend.  The low is expected to be absorbed by another low pressure\narea over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.\n\nMichael is moving northeastward of 030/14 kt, and the hurricane\nshould continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded\nwithin the mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone should\nturn east-northeastward and further accelerate as it moves over the\nnorth Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, but\nhas trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been\nadjusted accordingly.\n\nGale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the\nMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes\npost-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and\nadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in\nthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the\nFlorida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge\nis expected to continue between Tyndall Air Force Base and Aucilla\nRiver, where 5 to 10 feet of inundation is still ongoing.\n\n2. Michael will continue to produce life-threatening hurricane-force\nwinds well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,\nsoutheast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia this evening as the core\nof the hurricane continues to move inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into\nportions southeast Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast\nVirginia.\n\n4. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast\nU.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and\ntropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  85.1W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  11/0600Z 32.6N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  11/1800Z 35.1N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  12/0600Z 37.6N  74.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  12/1800Z 40.7N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  13/1800Z 46.7N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/1800Z 49.2N  19.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/1800Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nThe exposed low-level center of Nadine is now peeking out from\nbeneath its upper cloud canopy. The initial intensity has been held\nat 55 kt out of respect for earlier ASCAT data, but it is possible\nthat some weakening has occurred since this morning. Strong westerly\nwind shear will likely prevent Nadine from becoming any better\norganized going forward, so the official intensity forecast now\ncalls for steady weakening for the next 2 days. All of the dynamical\nmodels indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low\npressure within the next 72 h, and the NHC forecast now shows\ndissipation occuring by that point.\n\nNadine is moving steadily northwestward with an initial motion of\n315/7 kt.  As long as Nadine remains a tropical cyclone, it should\nstay on a similar heading, and the models are in generally good\nagreement on its track.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a\nlittle to the southwest, and is generally close to the TVCX and HCCA\nconsensus aids at all times.  From 48 h onward, the cyclone or its\nremnant trough will likely be entirely separated from its convection\nand turn westward in low-level easterly flow.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 13.1N  32.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 13.8N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 14.8N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 15.7N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 16.2N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":46,"Date":"2018-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nThe organization of the cloud pattern has remained unchanged during\nthe day, except that the deep convection has continued to weaken.\nNevertheless, Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an\ninitial intensity of 55 kt. Some fluctuations in intensity are\nlikely during the next 12 hours while the cyclone is over relatively\nwarm waters and is embedded in a low shear environment. Since both\nof these factors will become unfavorable in about 12 to 24 hours,\nthe NHC forecast calls for weakening. Sergio, however, is expected\nto still be a tropical storm by the time it approaches the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula. After that time, Sergio will move over\nmainland Mexico and weaken much faster.\n\nSergio is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 12 kt. The\ncyclone is embedded within the southwesterly winds associated\nwith a large mid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern will\ncontinue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in\nforward speed. The forecast track brings the center of a weakened\nSergio over the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in\nabout a day and half, but winds will reach the coast a little bit\nearlier. Track models continue to be in very good agreement, and\nconsequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. The NHC forecast\nremains unchanged and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the\nweekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see\nproducts from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather\nforecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 19.2N 122.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 29.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  13/1800Z 33.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":59,"Date":"2018-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  59\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nThe overall cloud pattern of Leslie has become somewhat better\norganized over the past several hours with increasing convection\nin the central dense overcast and tighter banding features.  A blend\nof the subjective Dvorak and microwave estimates suggest an initial\nwind speed of 70 kt for this advisory.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Leslie has turned toward the east-\nnortheast and is moving faster at about 10 kt.  The track forecast\nreally hinges on whether Leslie gets accelerated in southwesterly\nflow ahead of an eastern Atlantic trough or gets dropped by that\ntrough and turns southwestward around a new subtropical ridge.\nSadly, the forecast agreement from the previous advisory has\ndisintegrated, with all of the GFS-based guidance now indicating a\ntrack more toward Europe, while the ECMWF/UKMET send Leslie in the\nexact opposite direction toward the east-central Atlantic.  I\nclearly drew the small straw in having to make Leslie's forecast\ntonight because this situation is resulting in one of the largest\nguidance spreads I have seen, about 1000 miles on day 3 and over\n2000 miles at day 5. Furthermore, the corrected-consensus guidance\nis closer to the GFS guidance, which is way to the northeast of the\nprevious forecast.  The new forecast will somewhat reflect the\nlatest guidance, showing an adjustment to the east, but is still\nhundreds of miles to the southwest of the latest model consensus.\nObviously this is a zero-confidence forecast tonight.\n\nMarginally warm waters and moderate shear could support additional\nstrengthening of Leslie during the next day or two, although the\nguidance is generally lower than yesterday.  By Saturday, colder\nocean waters, higher shear and a drier mid-level atmosphere should\ncause Leslie to weaken.  No significant changes were made to the\nprevious intensity forecast.  By Monday, Leslie, whether it follows\nthe forecast track or not, will likely be struggling to produce\nconvection or have already transitioned into an extratropical low.\nThus the 5 day point shows post-tropical status, perhaps\noptimistically, but this seems like the most likely option for now.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 27.9N  41.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 28.4N  39.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 29.9N  35.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 31.3N  30.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 32.3N  25.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 32.0N  20.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 29.5N  20.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  16/0000Z 27.5N  25.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Michael Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nData from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael\nhas been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it\nmoved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85\nkt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the\neastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the\nlow-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely\nmaking it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected due\nto frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the\ntrend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the\ncyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below\ntropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the\nHurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is\nforecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and\nFriday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is\nexpected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low\npressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.\n\nThe initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to\naccelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper\nmid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal\nsystem. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn\neast-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the\nnorth Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered\nabout the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were\nmade.\n\nGale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the\nMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes\npost-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and\nadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in\nthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the\nFlorida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge\nis expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach,\nwhere 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern\nVirginia.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast\nU.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and\ntropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 32.1N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 34.0N  81.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  12/0000Z 36.4N  77.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  12/1200Z 39.3N  70.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  13/0000Z 42.4N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/0000Z 47.9N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/0000Z 49.7N  13.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nAnother burst of deep convection has formed near the center of\nNadine, which is typical in sheared tropical cyclones.  A recent\nASCAT pass indicated several believable 50-55 kt winds, so the\ninitial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.  The shear is\nonly forecast to increase over the next couple of days, which\nshould lead to weakening, especially by Friday. All of the dynamical\nmodels indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low\npressure over the weekend, and no significant changes were made to\nthe previous forecast.\n\nNadine continues to move northwestward due to a ridge near the Cabo\nVerde Islands.  This general course is forecast for the next day or\nso until Nadine become a more shallow system, which should cause\nthe cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest.  The previous\ninterpolated forecast came in basically on top of the new consensus\nand corrected-consensus guidance, so the new track forecast is very\nclose to the previous NHC prediction.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 13.6N  32.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 14.3N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 15.3N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 16.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 16.5N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":47,"Date":"2018-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Wed Oct 10 2018\n\nThis evening's satellite presentation depicts a rather ragged and\nelongated banding eye-like feature with fragmented curved bands\nencircling the periphery of cyclone.  The subjective intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, however, still yield an initial\nintensity of 55 kt.\n\nThe UW-CIMSS shear analysis shows that the westerly shear has\nincreased to 15-20 kt, and the Decay-SHIPS as well as the global\nmodels indicate that the shear magnitude will increase further to\nnear 50 kt prior to landfall.  This inhibiting upper wind pattern\nalong with slightly cooler oceanic temperatures should influence\nsome further weakening as it approaches the Baja California\npeninsula.  Sergio is forecast to move inland over Baja California\nSur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state of Sonora early\nSaturday as a depression.  At the end of the forecast period, Sergio\nis expected to further degenerate into a post-tropical weak low over\nthe southwestern United States.  The intensity forecast is based on\nthe NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models which show Sergio\nmaking landfall Friday as a tropical storm.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/14 kt,\nand this general motion is forecast through the entire 72 hour\nperiod with a continued increase in forward speed.  Sergio will be\napproaching the central Baja California peninsula Friday, although\nthe tropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.\nThere is continued high confidence in the forecast track as the\navailable large-scale and hurricane models are clustered tightly\ntogether through 72 hours.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of\nthe guidance cluster and is close to the TVCN/HCCA consensus models.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the\nweekend. For more information about this potential hazard, see\nproducts from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather\nforecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 20.0N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 21.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 24.4N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 27.2N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  13/0000Z 30.0N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  14/0000Z 34.4N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":60,"Date":"2018-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  60\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Leslie has not changed significantly\novernight.  The hurricane has a large and ragged eye with deep\nconvection most organized on its east side.  The Dvorak CI-numbers\nare unchanged at 4.0/65 kt from TAFB and 4.5/77 kt from SAB, and\nbased on these data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.\n\nLeslie will remain in low wind shear conditions and over relatively\nwarm waters for another day or two, so little change in strength is\nexpected during that time.  Thereafter, the hurricane is forecast\nto move over waters as cool as 24 deg C and into an atmospheric\nenvironment of stronger shear and drier air.  All of these\nconditions point to a weakening trend, which is likely to begin by\nthe weekend.  Most of the guidance shows a cold front approaching\nLeslie, but not quite merging with it so extratropical transition is\nnot expected. However, it seems likely that Leslie will lose its\nconvection and become a weaker post-tropical low in about 4 days.\nThis scenario is supported by the latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and\nHWRF models.\n\nLeslie has made the expected east-northeastward turn with the latest\ninitial motion estimated to be 065/9. This east-northeastward motion\nwith an increase in forward speed is forecast to continue for the\nnext 2 days while the steering pattern holds.  After that time,\nhowever, it becomes much less clear.  The models continue to\nstruggle and keep changing their tune cycle to cycle on whether or\nnot Leslie continues east-northeastward toward Morocco or Portugal,\nor gets left behind and moves west-southwestward due to a building\nridge.  The ensemble members of both the GFS and ECMWF favor the\nleft behind (or southwestward) solution, and the NHC track forecast\ncontinues to lean in that direction.  This forecast does show Leslie\nmoving farther east before it makes the southwestward turn to be in\nbetter agreement with the latest consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 28.4N  40.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 29.3N  37.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 30.9N  33.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 32.1N  27.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 32.7N  22.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z 31.3N  18.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  15/0600Z 29.0N  19.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  16/0600Z 27.5N  24.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n500 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nSurface observations and WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that\nMichael continues to weaken as the center moves through eastern\nGeorgia, and based on these data the initial intensity is decreased\nto 45 kt. There is currently a small area of tropical-storm-force\nwinds near the center, with a second area over the Atlantic well to\nthe southeast of the center.  Michael should continue to weaken for\nthe next 12 h or so as the center moves through South Carolina\nand into North Carolina.  After that time, the cyclone should start\nto intensify due to baroclinic forcing, and it is expected to become\na gale- or storm-force extratropical low around the 24-h point.  The\nnew intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast, and\nit leans heavily on global model guidance during the extratropical\nphase.\n\nThe initial motion is now 045/18.  Michael will accelerate toward\nthe northeast and east-northeast as it becomes further embedded in\nthe mid-latitude westerlies.  The new track forecast track is near\nthe various consensus models and has no significant changes from the\nprevious forecast.\n\nGale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the\nMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes\npost-tropical.  Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and\nadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in\nthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern\nVirginia.\n\n2. Tropical storm conditions will continue to affect portions of the\nsoutheast U.S. coast from Georgia through North Carolina, and\ntropical storm warnings remain in effect for these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 33.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  11/1800Z 35.4N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  12/0600Z 37.9N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  12/1800Z 40.9N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  13/0600Z 44.1N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/0600Z 49.0N   9.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n500 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nNadine is a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located\nnear the western edge of the main area of deep convection.  An ASCAT\npass from several hours ago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt\nrange, and since the satellite appearance has not changed much, the\ninitial intensity is held at 55 kt. This value is near the high end\nof the satellite-based intensity estimates. The environment near\nNadine is expected to become even more hostile during the next\ncouple of days due to the combined effects of strong west-\nsouthwesterly shear and drier air. Therefore, steady weakening is\nforecast, and dissipation is expected to occur in 2 to 3 days when\nthe shear is forecast to be in excess of 30 kt. The models are in\ngood agreement, and little change was made to the previous NHC\nintensity forecast.\n\nThe storm is moving northwestward at 7 kt.  The track forecast\nreasoning is unchanged from previous advisories. Nadine is expected\nto continue moving northwestward for about another day while the\ntropical storm remains relatively deep, or vertically coherent.\nAfter that time, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is\nforecast to turn to the left in the low-level flow, and that motion\nshould continue until the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast\nlies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is not too\ndifferent than the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 14.1N  33.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 14.9N  34.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 15.7N  35.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 16.3N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 16.7N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":48,"Date":"2018-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nSergio's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several\nhours, and the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and\nSAB haven't changed either.  A partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass\nrevealed numerous 45-kt winds and a 50-kt northerly wind in the\ncoldest cloud tops of the curved band wrapping around the north\nportion of the circulation. Based on these data, the initial\nintensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  A combination\nof increasing southwesterly shear, a drier and more stable\nsurrounding environment, and slightly cooler oceanic temperatures\nshould influence some weakening as it approaches the Baja California\npeninsula.  The cyclone is expected to move inland over\nBaja California Sur on Friday and into the northwestern Mexico state\nof Sonora early Saturday.  Afterward, rapid weakening, and\nultimately dissipation, is expected after Sergio makes its second\nlandfall along the coast of the mainland Mexico.  A 72 hour\npost-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent\nthe inland motion of Sergio.  The intensity forecast is once\nagain based on the NOAA-HCCA, and the GFS/ECMWF global models, which\nshow Sergio making landfall Friday as a tropical storm.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 050/15\nkt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a\nmid-latitude trough stretching southwestward over the eastern\nPacific from the southwestern United States.  Sergio should continue\nmoving in this general motion through the entire 72 hour period with\na continued increase in forward speed.  Sergio will be approaching\nthe central Baja California peninsula Friday, although the\ntropical-storm-force winds are likely to arrive Thursday night.\nThe NHC forecast lies in the middle of the tightly clustered\nguidance and is close to the multi-model consensus aids.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the\nweekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see\nproducts from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather\nforecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 21.0N 120.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 25.7N 114.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 28.4N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  14/0600Z 35.3N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":61,"Date":"2018-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  61\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nLeslie's structure has remained steady since last night. The\nhurricane has a ragged banding eye surrounded by a somewhat patchy\ncentral dense overcast. Recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB\nand SAB are unchanged, and still support an initial intensity of\n70 kt.\n\nFor days now, it has been clear that Leslie will accelerate\neast-northeastward on the south side of a mid-latitude trough\nmoving across the North Atlantic. That acceleration is well underway\nnow, and the initial motion estimate is 060/14 kt. It has been\nunclear, however, when (or if) Leslie could separate from this\ntrough and begin to drift southward over the eastern Atlantic. The\nmodel spread has remarkably increased since yesterday, and nearly\n1/3 of the members of the most recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs no\nlonger forecast Leslie to separate from the trough at all, instead\nshowing the cyclone approaching western Europe as an extratropical\nlow. Even the deterministic model spread has increased, and the\ntwo NOAA regional hurricane models, the HWRF and HMON, are nearly\n2300 miles apart at day 5. Through 48 h, the official track forecast\nis very similar to the previous advisory, but it has been adjusted\neastward beyond that time, to bring it closer to the most recent\ndeterministic multi-model consensus. Confidence in the track\nforecast is not high at 72 h and beyond, and it's possible that\nlarge changes could still be required to future advisories.\n\nLeslie should remain in a generally favorable environment for\nstrengthening during the next 24-36 h, and slight intensification\nis still expected, though the official intensity forecast is now on\nthe high side of the guidance through this period. By 48 h and\nonward, Leslie will be moving into a far more stable environment\nand over cooler waters, so steady weakening is anticipated.  If\nLeslie follows a track similar to the NHC forecast, it will likely\nbecome a weak post-tropical low within 96 h. However, if Leslie\nundergoes extratropical transition, its worth noting that the\nmaximum winds associated with the cyclone would likely be higher\nthan indicated here.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 29.1N  38.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 30.3N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 31.7N  30.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 32.8N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 33.2N  20.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z 31.3N  17.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  15/1200Z 29.1N  19.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  16/1200Z 27.5N  24.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nSurface, radar, and satellite data indicate that the center of\nMichael has moved over central South Carolina this morning, and will\nbe moving into central North Carolina shortly.  Sustained winds near\nthe center have decreased, but there have been a couple of reports\nof sustained 37 to 40 kt winds along and just off the coast of South\nCarolina within the outer circulation of the storm.  It is assumed\nthat these coastal observing sites have not sampled the strongest\nwinds, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.\nWind gusts of 40 to 50 kt have been common over central and eastern\nportions of South Carolina this morning.  As Michael's circulation\nemerges over the western Atlantic, little change in strength is\nexpected today, with the highest sustained winds spreading northward\nalong the coasts of South and North Carolina.  Late tonight, Michael\nwill quickly transform into an extratropical cyclone, and the global\nmodels indicate that the post-tropical low will quickly strengthen\nafter moving offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The post-tropical\nportion of Michael's intensity forecast is based on guidance from\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nThe storm is moving quickly northeastward or 050 degrees at 20 kt.\nMichael will continue to accelerate northeastward to east-\nnortheastward as it moves over the western and north Atlantic\nduring the next couple of days.  There has been little change to\nthe guidance envelope, and the new NHC track is an update of the\nprevious advisory.\n\nGale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the\nMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes\npost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and\nadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in\nthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding today over portions of the Carolinas and southeastern\nVirginia.\n\n2. Tropical storm force wind gusts will continue across much of\nSouth Carolina and central and eastern North Carolina, with\nsustained tropical storm force winds expected along the coast of the\nCarolinas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 34.7N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  12/0000Z 36.6N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  12/1200Z 39.3N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  13/0000Z 42.8N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  13/1200Z 45.5N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/1200Z 48.2N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/1200Z 49.0N   9.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 AM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nNadine is strongly sheared and the low-level center of the\ntropical storm is now completely exposed, nearly 50 n mi to the\nsouthwest of the nearest deep convection. Satellite intensity\nestimates have decreased since last night, so the intensity has\nbeen lowered to 50 kt. This value is still on the high side of the\navailable intensity estimates, but Nadine's intensity has generally\nbeen near the top of the intensity estimates for the past few days.\n\nSteady weakening is still anticipated because the shear is forecast\nby all models to increase further during the next day or two. By\n72 h, if not sooner, all of the dynamical models forecast that\nNadine will have lost its deep convection and degenerated into a\ntrough of low pressure. No significant changes were made to the NHC\nintensity forecast.\n\nNadine is still moving northwestward at 7 kt.  Since Nadine's\nsurface circulation has become completely exposed and the vortex is\nlikely becoming very shallow, a quicker turn toward the\nwest-northwest and west is now shown in the official track forecast.\nThe track forecast has therefore been adjusted toward the southwest\nat most forecast times, but is still close to HCCA and TVCN through\nthe short forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 14.1N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 14.8N  34.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 15.5N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 15.9N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 16.2N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":49,"Date":"2018-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  49\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 AM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Sergio continues to show organization with a\ncouple of cyclonically curved hooking bands, however the convection\nin these bands is weak to moderate.  Dvorak estimates suggest that\nthe initial intensity still is 55 kt. Sergio is about to move over\ncooler waters and the shear is forecast to increase significantly,\nso the expected weakening process should begin later today.\nNevertheless, the cyclone should still be a tropical storm when it\nmoves over the Baja California peninsula, but it should dissipate\nonce it moves over the high terrain of the Mexican mainland over the\nstate of Sonora.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Sergio is moving toward the northeast\nabout 17 kt. The storm is embedded within the deep-layer\nsouthwesterly flow associated with a broad mid-latitude trough\nlocated just off the U.S. west coast. This flow pattern will\ncontinue to steer Sergio toward the northeast with an increase in\nforward speed. Track models are in excellent agreement and\nunanimously bring Sergio over the central portion of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula in about 24 hours and so does the official\nforecast.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the\nweekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see\nproducts from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather\nforecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 22.2N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 24.2N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":62,"Date":"2018-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  62\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nLeslie's inner-core structure has improved a little during the day\ntoday.  A ragged banding eye was present in visible imagery until\nsunset, though this feature is not apparent in IR imagery. Recent\nsatellite intensity estimates range from 65 kt to 90 kt, so Leslie's\nintensity has been raised to 75 kt as a compromise of all available\nestimates.\n\nLeslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial\nmotion estimate of 065/18 kt. Confidence remains high that Leslie\nwill continue gaining speed on that heading for the next 24 h or\nso. Beyond that time, the ensemble spread is still very high,\nthough the 12Z deterministic global models are generally in\nagreement that Leslie will separate from a mid-level trough, slow\ndown, and turn southward over the weekend. While the exact timing of\nthis turn is still highly uncertain, the multi-model consensus\nbrings Leslie near Madeira Island on Saturday as a tropical storm.\nThe new official forecast shows a very similar track, and the\ngovernment of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for that\nisland. While the exact path of Leslie is still uncertain, the\ncyclone is still expected to produce tropical storm conditions over\na wide area through Saturday, and interests on Madeira should not\nfocus on the exact track of Leslie.\n\nNo large changes in intensity are anticipated during the next 24 h,\nthough some fluctuations are possible, up or down. By 36 h, Leslie\nwill reach much cooler waters and encounter an increase in wind\nshear which should lead to steady weakening. The intensity guidance\nis in surprisingly good agreement given the continued large track\nspread, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the\nguidance envelope from 36 h onward. By 96 h, odds are increasing\nthat Leslie could lose all of its convection and become\npost-tropical, though this possibility still depends heavily on\nLeslie following a track similar to the NHC official forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 29.9N  36.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 31.0N  33.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 32.5N  27.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 33.3N  21.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 33.1N  17.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 30.9N  16.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  15/1800Z 29.0N  18.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  16/1800Z 28.0N  24.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n500 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nSatellite and radar data show that Michael's rain shield is\nbeginning to expand northward and northwestward, and that cooler and\ndrier air is starting to wrap around the western portion of the\ncirculation.  These trends indicate that Michael's transition to an\nextratropical low has started.  There have been recent observations\nof 40 to nearly 45 kt sustained winds along the southeastern coast\nof North Carolina, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  Little\nchange in strength is expected through this evening, but Michael is\nforecast to quickly intensify after it completes extratropical\ntransition and exits the east coast of the United States tonight.\nThe official intensity forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA\nOcean Prediction Center.\n\nIt should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to\n50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation\nover central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a\nresult, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this\narea of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across\nportions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this\nevening and tonight.\n\nMichael is moving northeastward or 050/21 kt. The storm will\ncontinue to accelerate as it become further embedded within the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The post-tropical cyclone will race\nacross the north Atlantic during the next few days, before slowing\ndown late in the period before it weakens and dissipates.  The\ntrack guidance continues to be in good agreement and little change\nwas required from the previous NHC track forecast.\n\nGale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the\nMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes\npost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and\nadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in\nthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of\nNorth Carolina and southern Virginia and will continue through the\nevening.\n\n2. Damaging winds are spreading eastward across portions of central\nand eastern North Carolina, and will continue through this evening.\nThese winds have the potential to cause tree and structural damage.\nStrong winds are also expected over portions of southeastern\nVirginia and the Virginia Eastern Shore tonight as Michael becomes\npost-tropical.\n\n3. Dangerous storm surge is possible tonight along the sound side of\nthe North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where a\nStorm Surge Watch is in effect.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 36.1N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  12/0600Z 38.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  12/1800Z 41.2N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  13/0600Z 44.5N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  13/1800Z 47.0N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/1800Z 48.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/1800Z 46.5N   7.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n500 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nNadine continues to be strongly sheared. A brief burst of deep\nconvection occurred near the center of the cyclone a few hours ago,\nbut the center has since become exposed once again. The initial\nintensity has been decreased to 45 kt based primary on the latest\nTAFB and SAB Dvorak fixes. Additional weakening is likely over the\nnext day or so while Nadine remains strongly sheared. The regional\nand global models now show Nadine degenerating into a trough of low\npressure within 48 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC forecast.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward with an initial\nspeed of 7 kt. The models are in good agreement that Nadine will\ncontinue on a similar heading and speed for the next 24 h or so,\nbefore turning toward the west as it weakens. The NHC forecast has\nbeen nudged to the southwest at most forecast points, and is\ngenerally near the HFIP Corrected Consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 14.5N  34.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 14.9N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 15.5N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 15.7N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":50,"Date":"2018-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  50\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n200 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Sergio consists of a large and vigorous swirl\nof low clouds with a few patches of deep convection within a band in\nthe northern semicircle.  In fact, the cloud pattern on satellite\nresembles a cyclone that has begun to acquire extratropical\ncharacteristics.  Convection has decreased, and Dvorak numbers now\nsupport a lower initial intensity of 50 kt. Sergio's circulation is\nalready over cooler waters and the shear is increasing, so weakening\nshould continue from now on.  Sergio, however, is expected to still\nbe a tropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula\non Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while interacts with\nthe high terrain and then reach the state of Sonora as a tropical\ndepression followed by dissipation.\n\nSergio has increased its forward speed and is now moving toward\nthe northeast at about 20 kt. Since the steering currents are\nnot expected to change, the general motion should continue\nuntil dissipation in about 36 hours os so.  Track models continue to\nbe in excellent agreement, and unanimously bring the core of Sergio\nover the central portion of the Baja California peninsula in a\nlittle more than 12 hours and so does the official forecast.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and the Ozarks through the\nweekend.  For more information about this potential hazard, see\nproducts from the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather\nforecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 23.5N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 25.5N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  13/0600Z 31.0N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":63,"Date":"2018-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  63\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Leslie has continued to strengthen.\nA small eye has occasionally been apparent, although it has\nrecently become obscured by clouds.  ASCAT data showed peak winds\nof 75 kt earlier, and given the low bias of that instrument at those\nwind speeds, the initial wind speed is set to 80 kt.  Leslie should\nbegin to weaken in about 24 hours as the hurricane encounters cool\nwaters and a higher-shear environment.  Intensity guidance is\ntightly clustered around the previous NHC prediction, and little\nchange is made in the new advisory.  By 72 hours, a combination of\nvery dry air aloft, waters near 23.5C, and high shear should cause\nLeslie to lose convection and transition into a post-tropical\ncyclone.\n\nLeslie continues to accelerate east-northeastward with an initial\nmotion estimate of 070/23 kt.  The hurricane should move rapidly\nin that general direction for the next day or so ahead of a\nmid-latitude trough, then bend eastward and southward as the main\nsteering mechanism switches to the eastern Atlantic subtropical\nridge.  There is still a large guidance spread, over 700 miles at\nday 3, but the main change to report is that more of the models are\ncontinuing the east-northeastward track longer, possibly due to\nLeslie becoming a stronger system.  The official forecast is\nshifted to the east, but is still well to the southwest of the\nmodel consensus, ironically similar to last night's forecast.\n\nLeslie is a fairly large tropical cyclone and the forecast wind\nradii encompass Madeira Island within 36 hours.  Consequently, a\ntropical storm warning has been issued for that island.  It is the\nfirst known tropical storm warning for that place, and there are\nno known tropical storms in the historical record anywhere\nwithin 100 miles of that island, with the closest being Vince of\n2005.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 30.9N  33.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 32.1N  29.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 33.3N  23.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 34.0N  18.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 33.5N  15.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 31.5N  15.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  16/0000Z 29.0N  18.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/0000Z 28.0N  24.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Michael Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nMichael has just about lost its tropical characteristics.  The\nlow-level circulation is becoming increasingly elongated as it\nbecomes embedded within a frontal zone, and the center is becoming\nill defined.  The center we have been tracking across North\nCarolina appears to have moved into extreme southeastern Virginia,\nalthough it should be noted that a second low center, one with even\nlower pressure, has formed farther north along the western shore of\nChesapeake Bay, closer to the deepest convection.  Needless to say,\nMichael has just about become post-tropical, and that\ntransformation should be complete overnight.  The estimated maximum\nwinds remain 45 kt based on recent observations from coastal North\nCarolina.  Due to baroclinic forcing, some re-intensification of\nthe post-tropical low is expected during the next 24-36 hours,\nfollowing guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.  The\npost-tropical low should then begin to weaken again in 2-3 days and\nwill likely be absorbed by another weather system to the west of\nEurope by day 4.\n\nThe initial motion based on the continuity-following low center is\nnortheastward, or 055/22 kt.  Michael is embedded within the\nmid-latitude flow and is therefore expected to accelerate toward\nthe east-northeast over the western and northern Atlantic during the\nnext couple of days, even approaching speeds of about 50 kt in 48\nhours.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and no\nsignificant changes to the official track forecast were required.\nMichael's center is expected to move off the coast of Virginia\nwithin the next couple of hours, with tropical-storm- and\ngale-force winds moving away from the coast during the day on\nFriday.\n\nGale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the\nMid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes\npost-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and\nadvisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in\nthese areas north of Duck, North Carolina.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Life-threatening flash flooding is occurring over portions of\nthe southern Mid-Atlantic states and will continue overnight.\n\n2. Strong, possibly damaging winds are expected over portions of\nextreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the\nsouthern Delmarva peninsula overnight.  These winds have the\npotential to cause tree and structural damage, plus power outages.\n\n3. Dangerous storm surge is possible overnight along the sound side\nof the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck, where\na Storm Surge Watch is in effect.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 37.1N  76.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 39.2N  71.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  13/0000Z 42.5N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  13/1200Z 45.4N  49.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  14/0000Z 47.1N  34.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  15/0000Z 47.6N  14.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 PM AST Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nAlthough Nadine remains under the influence of strong southwesterly\nshear, a new burst of convection went up a few hours ago and covered\nthe low-level center again.  The initial intensity remains 45 kt\nbased on consensus T3.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Even\nstronger shear is expected to cause Nadine to weaken during the\nnext day or two, and the global models all agree that the system\nwill open up into a trough by 48 hours.  The updated NHC forecast\nis unchanged from the previous one.\n\nNadine is moving west-northwestward, or 295/8 kt.  A low-level\nridge is forecast to steer the cyclone west-northwestward and then\nwestward at an increasing speed until it dissipates by 48 hours.\nThe new track guidance has bended slightly southwestward on this\ncycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted in that\ndirection toward the multi-model consensus aids and HCCA guidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 14.9N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 15.2N  36.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 15.6N  38.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 15.8N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":51,"Date":"2018-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  51\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n800 PM PDT Thu Oct 11 2018\n\nDeep convection has been on the wane with Sergio during the past\nseveral hours with a relatively small patch remaining in the\nnorthern semicircle.  Still, the circulation of Sergio is fairly\nlarge and vigorous and will take some time to spin down.  The\ninitial wind speed is held at 50 kt, on the high side of the\nsatellite estimates since we haven't had ASCAT data in quite some\ntime.  Weakening should commence overnight due to cool waters and\nincreasing shear. Sergio, however, is expected to still be a\ntropical storm when it moves over the Baja California peninsula\non Friday. Thereafter, it should weaken faster while it interacts\nwith the high terrain, then reaching the state of Sonora as a\ntropical depression and dissipating soon thereafter.\n\nSergio continues moving northeastward at 20 kt. Models are very\ntightly clustered on this track and speed, staying virtually\nunchanged until dissipation by 36 hours or so.  Note that the\n36-hour point is merely a place holder for the remnants of the\ncyclone.  No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.\nFor more information about this potential hazard, see products from\nthe Weather Prediction Center and your local weather\nforecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 24.7N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  13/0000Z 29.6N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  13/1200Z 32.5N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":64,"Date":"2018-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  64\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nLeslie has changed little in organization since the last advisory.\nThe eye is currently not apparent in conventional satellite imagery,\nalthough recent microwave overpasses indicate at least a partial\neyewall is present under the overcast.  Satellite intensity\nestimates have changed little, so the initial intensity is held at\n80 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 065/24.  The guidance is in good\nagreement that this general motion should continue for 24 h or so.\nAfter that, there is a major model divergence.  The GFS, ECMWF, and\nthe various consensus models now show a continued east-northeast\nmotion until landfall in Portugal or Spain.  On the other hand, the\nUKMET, UK ensemble mean, and Canadian models show a turn toward the\nsouth and then back to the west.  Since the previous forecast showed\na southward and westward turn, the new forecast track will also\nfollow this scenario.  However, it is shifted well to the east of\nthe previous track due to the forecasts of the other models.\nNeedless to say, the latter portion of the track forecast is low\nconfidence.\n\nLeslie should gradually weaken as it approaches Madeira Island\nduring the next 24-36 h.  After that, the intensity forecast is\ndependent on what track the cyclone takes.  If it follows the\nGFS/ECMWF scenario, the system would likely make landfall on the\nIberian peninsula and quickly dissipate.  If it follows the UKMET\nscenario, a combination of shear, cool water, and dry air\nentrainment should cause weakening.  Since the track forecast is\ncloser to the UKMET scenario, the intensity forecast follows the\nprevious forecast in having Leslie decay to a post-tropical low by\n72 h.  However, this is also a low confidence forecast due to the\nuncertainties in the track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 31.9N  31.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 33.1N  26.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 34.2N  20.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 34.6N  15.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 34.0N  13.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 32.0N  12.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0600Z 30.0N  13.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/0600Z 28.0N  18.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Michael","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Michael Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018\n500 AM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Michael has\nbecome a storm-force extratropical low as it moves off of the coast\nof the United States.  The initial intensity has been increased to\n55 kt based on the surface observations, and some additional\nincrease in strength is expected during the next 12-24 h.  After\nthat time, the cyclone should gradually weaken, and it is forecast\nto dissipate over the eastern Atlantic by 96 h.  The revised\nintensity and size forecast are based mainly on the guidance from\nthe Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nThe initial motion is 065/25.  The cyclone should move very rapidly\ntoward the east-northeast, followed by a more eastward motion near\nthe end of the cyclone's life.\n\nThis is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane\nCenter on this system.  Additional information on this system can be\nfound in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,\nunder AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available\non the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\nAdditional information on the remaining impacts over the United\nStates can be found in products issued by local National Weather\nService forecast offices.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding this morning from\neastern New Jersey to southern New England. Elsewhere high water,\nflooding, and flash flooding may persist today where heavy rain fell\nvery recently in the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states.\n\n2. Gale-force winds will continue for a few more hours over\nportions of southeastern Virginia, the southern Chesapeake Bay, and\nthe Delmarva Peninsula.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 38.0N  73.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 12H  12/1800Z 40.4N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  13/0600Z 43.8N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  13/1800Z 46.2N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  14/0600Z 47.0N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  15/0600Z 46.0N  11.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nA 0353 UTC AMSR-2 microwave overpass and GOES-16 shortwave infrared\nimagery show that the 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear, depicted\nin the UW-CIMSS shear analysis, is partially exposing, or\ndecoupling, Nadine's surface circulation from the convective mass.\nThe cloud pattern, however, hasn't changed during the past 6 hours\nand in fact, the cloud top temperatures in the curved band over the\nnorth semicircle have decreased somewhat.  TAFB and SAB satellite\nintensity estimates remained unchanged, and the initial intensity is\nheld at 45 kt.\n\nThe Decay SHIPS statistical intensity model indicates that the shear\nwill persist and increase a little more which should cause Nadine to\nspin down and dissipate in 48 hours, or possibly sooner.  The\nlarge-scale models all show the cyclone opening up into a trough of\nlow pressure and ultimately dissipating over the deep tropical\ncentral Atlantic at that time.  The official forecast follows suit\nand is an update of the previous advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/7\nkt.  A low to mid-level ridge anchored between Nadine to the south\nand Hurricane Leslie to the north, should steer the cyclone\nwest-northwestward and then westward at an accelerated pace until\ndissipation.  The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a little\nsouth and toward both the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 15.2N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.4N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.6N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.8N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":52,"Date":"2018-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  52\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n300 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018\n \nSergio's cloud shield is well separated from the poorly organized\nsurface circulation and is confined to the northwest quadrant.\nSubjective satellite intensity estimates yield a reduction in the\ninitial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.\n \nWeakening should continue this morning due to cool oceanic sea\nsurface temperatures and belligerent southwesterly shear, but\nSergio is still expected to be a tropical storm as it make landfall\nin the Pacific coast of Baja California Sur. Afterward, Sergio\nshould quickly become a depression and eventually dissipate as it\ntraverses the rugged terrain of the northwestern Mexico state of\nSonora.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/21\nkt, within the deep-layer southwesterly flow produced by a\nmid-latitude trough situated just west of the California coast.\nThis synoptic steering pattern should steer Sergio toward the\nnortheast at an accelerated rate of speed.  A 36 hour\npost-tropical/remnant low point is maintained to simply represent\nthe inland motion of Sergio.  The NHC forecast lies in the middle of\nthe various multi-model consensus aids, and is basically an update\nof the previous package.\n \nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, the U.S. Southern Plains, and Arkansas through the weekend.\nFor more information about this potential hazard, see products from\nthe Weather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast\noffice.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/0900Z 26.1N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 28.2N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  13/0600Z 31.0N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/1800Z 33.8N 103.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":65,"Date":"2018-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  65\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nLeslie's cloud pattern continues to feature a central dense\novercast, but with only hints of an eye in visible imagery. A\npartial northern eyewall was noted on a 0910Z SSMIS overpass. Dvorak\nintensity estimates have decreased slightly, and based on this, the\ninitial intensity has been conservatively nudged down to 75 kt. The\nwind field is quite large, especially south of the center, as\nconfirmed by a pair of recent ASCAT passes, and the initial wind\nradii have been adjusted using those data.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 070/28. Leslie is moving quickly\neast-northeastward on the southern side of a powerful longwave\ntrough centered over the north Atlantic. The track forecast\nreasoning has changed since the last advisory, with the GFS, ECMWF,\nand now the 06Z run of the UKMET all showing a more eastward motion\nof Leslie toward the Iberian Peninsula as the cyclone is picked up\nby the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted significantly to the north and east, especially beyond 24\nhours, but still lies to the south of and is slower than the GFS and\nECMWF. Once the system moves inland, the low-level center should\ndissipate over the high terrain, but a 72 hour remnant low point is\nincluded for continuity purposes. Needless to say, confidence in the\nofficial track forecast beyond 24 hours is quite low given the\nrecent shift in the models, and further adjustments will likely be\nnecessary.\n\nThe intensity forecast shows Leslie only slowly weakening as a\ntropical cyclone during the next 24 hours due to a combination of\ncool SSTs and increasing shear from the trough. However, simulated\nsatellite imagery and model fields suggest that Leslie will\ntransition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, likely\nstill at hurricane intensity as shown by the global models.\nWeakening is expected after the trough passes Leslie by, and the\nmid-level circulation will likely be sheared away by strong\nupper-level winds.\n\nLeslie is expected to bring significant rain and wind impacts to\nportions of Portugal and Spain by Sunday, and residents in those\nareas should refer to products from their local meteorological\nservices for more information on these hazards.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 33.0N  28.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 34.2N  23.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 35.4N  17.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 36.0N  12.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  14/1200Z 36.3N   9.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  15/1200Z 37.0N   4.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nStrong southwesterly shear has caused the center of Nadine to become\nwell removed from the deep convection this morning. Although Dvorak\nsatellite intensity estimates were T3.0 (45 kt) at 1200 UTC, the\ncenter has become further removed from the convection since that\ntime, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt for this\nadvisory.  The strong southwesterly shear is expected to persist\nover Nadine through the weekend, which should result in steady\nweakening and dissipation of the system by Sunday, if not sooner.\n\nNadine took a northwestward jog overnight, but now appears to have\nresumed a west-northwestward heading at about 7 kt.  As the storm\nweakens and becomes a shallower system it should turn westward and\naccelerate within the low-level trade wind flow. The more northward\ninitial position has required a northward adjustment in the NHC\ntrack forecast, but the new forecast again takes Nadine westward\nuntil dissipation occurs.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.0N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 16.1N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 16.3N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 16.5N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":53,"Date":"2018-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Sergio Discussion Number  53\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n900 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nThe center of Sergio crossed the central portion of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula and is now moving over the Sea of Cortez.\nThe convection has weakened and is displaced to the north of the\nstill vigorous low-level circulation. Based on observations from the\nautomatic stations of the Mexican Navy, the initial intensity is 35\nkt. The effect of the high terrain and shear will result in\nadditional weakening, and Sergio will likely become a tropical\ndepression this afternoon and dissipate over northwestern Mexico\nlater today or tonight.\n\nSergio is moving toward the northeast at 20 kt embedded within\nthe mid-latitude westerlies. This track should continue until\ndissipation in about 12 hours over Northwestern Mexico.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Sergio and its remnants continues\nto be life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides within\nmountainous terrain in the Mexico states of Baja California Sur,\nSonora, portions of the desert southwest and the U.S. Southern\nPlains through the weekend. For more information about this\npotential hazard, see products from the Weather Prediction Center\nand your local weather forecast office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 27.5N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 29.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":66,"Date":"2018-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  66\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nLeslie remains a well organized tropical cyclone, with a fairly\nsymmetric central dense overcast, and hints of an eye in both\nconventional and microwave satellite imagery.  A 1738 UTC SSMIS\nmicrowave overpass shows that there is some northeast to southwest\ntilt, due to an increase in westerly shear.  Some slight weakening\nis foreast tonight while Leslie moves over cool SSTs of 23 to 24\ndegrees Celsius and into an area of increasing westerly shear.\nHowever, Leslie is forecast to transition into a powerful hurricane-\nforce post-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours as it interacts with\nan approaching trough. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to make\nlandfall along the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula shortly\nthereafter, and it should weaken due to land interaction after that\ntime. The system is forecast to dissipate inland by Monday.\n\nLeslie continues to race across the far eastern Atlantic, with an\ninitial motion estimate of 070/30 kt. The global models are now\nunanimous in taking Leslie quickly east-northeastward on the south\nside of a strong longwave trough over the northeast Atlantic.  The\nofficial track foreast as been adjusted northward and is\nsignificantly faster than before, and brings the center of Leslie\nover the coast of the Iberian Peninsula by 0000 UTC Sunday.  The\nsystem is likely to dissipate over the high terrain of Spain\nwithin a couple of days, but a 48-h forecast point is shown for\ncontinuity. Now that the track guidance is in much better\nagreement, confidence in the NHC track forecast has increased.\n\nAfter coordination with the meteorological services of Portugal and\nSpain, they have decided to provide information on the wind hazard\nwith local products.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds on\nSaturday to portions of Portugal as a powerful post-tropical\ncyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds are also likely to affect\nportions of western Spain.\n\n2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1\nto 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 100 mm (4 inches)\nacross portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash\nflooding.\n\n3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should\nrefer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and\nAtmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to\nproducts from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 33.9N  24.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 35.6N  18.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 38.0N  12.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  14/0600Z 40.6N   6.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND\n 48H  14/1800Z 43.0N   2.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND\n 72H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nThe center of Nadine is now completely exposed to the west of a\nwaning area of deep convection due to 35-40 kt of southwesterly\nshear. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers\nfrom TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt.\nThis could be a little generous, but hopefully ASCAT will sample\nthe system later this evening to provide a better idea of how much\nthe winds have weakened. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered\nfrom the previous one, and now shows Nadine becoming a depression by\n12 hours and a remnant low by 24 hours, but both could happen\nsooner.\n\nThe now shallow cyclone has turned west-northwestward, with an\ninitial motion estimate of 285/13. Nadine and its remnants should\nmove quickly westward in the low-level trade wind flow until\ndissipation. The new NHC track is close to the middle of the\nguidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 16.4N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 16.5N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 16.7N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Sergio","Adv":54,"Date":"2018-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP212018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Sergio Discussion Number  54\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP212018\n300 PM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nThe center of Sergio moved over the high terrain of northwestern\nMexico and no longer has a well-defined circulation center. On\nthis basis, NHC has issued the last advisory on this system. The\nremnants of Sergio will move toward the northeast about 22 kt and\ncould still produce gusty winds in heavy squalls.\n\nSergio's remnants will continue to produce heavy rains which\ncould result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides\nwithin mountainous terrain in northwestern Mexico. Flash\nflooding is also possible across the U.S. Desert\nSouthwest and the Southern Plains through the weekend.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 29.3N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF SERGIO\n 12H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":67,"Date":"2018-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  67\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nAlthough Leslie continues to produce a compact area of deep\nconvection, microwave data since the previous advisory indicate\nthat the mid-level center is becoming more separated from the\nlow-level center due to increasing shear.  Dvorak final-T numbers\nhave begun to decrease a bit, and the initial intensity is\ntherefore set at 70 kt.  A cold front is beginning to wrap around\nthe western side of Leslie's circulation, and the global models\nindicate that the cyclone should lose its warm core and become\nfully embedded within the frontal zone by 24 hours, if not sooner.\nDespite sea surface temperatures of 17-23 degrees Celsius ahead of\nLeslie, baroclinic forcing is likely to maintain the system's\nintensity as it becomes extratropical.  As a result, Leslie is\nforecast to reach the Iberian Peninsula as a hurricane-force\nextratropical low, with the NHC intensity forecast most closely\nfollowing the GFS guidance.  Rapid weakening is forecast once the\nlow moves inland, and the system should dissipate over the higher\nterrain of Spain in about 48 hours.\n\nThe forward motion is east-northeastward, or 075/31 kt.  Located\nwithin the base of a progressive trough, Leslie should maintain\nthis trajectory, slowing down only a little bit before it reaches\nPortugal and Spain in 24-36 hours.  Except for the UKMET model,\nwhich shows Leslie turning more northeastward toward the\nnorthwestern Iberian Peninsula, the rest of the track guidance is\ntightly clustered and brings the center inland across central\nPortugal and western Spain.  Because most of the models are in good\nagreement and are close to the previous official forecast, no\nsignificant changes were made to the NHC forecast on this cycle.\n\nBased on coordination from earlier today, the meteorological\nservices of Portugal and Spain will handle hazard information for\ntheir respective countries via local weather products.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to\nportions of Portugal late Saturday as a powerful post-tropical\ncyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of\nwestern Spain Saturday night and Sunday.\n\n2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1\nto 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 100 mm (4 inches)\nacross portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash\nflooding.\n\n3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should\nrefer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and\nAtmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to\nproducts from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 34.7N  20.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 36.5N  15.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 38.9N   9.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  14/1200Z 41.0N   5.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  15/0000Z 42.3N   1.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Nadine","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Nadine Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018\n1100 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018\n\nASCAT data indicate that Nadine no longer has a closed circulation\nnor a well-defined center.  This is also confirmed by low cloud\nmotions from GOES-16.  Thus Nadine has degenerated into an open\nwave, and this is the last advisory on this system. The initial wind\nspeed is reduced to 30 kt to match the value from the scatterometer.\nStrong shear should cause the remnants to slowly weaken as the\nsystem moves quickly westward beneath the Atlantic subtropical\nridge.\n\nFuture information on the remnants of Nadine can be found in High\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\nat https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.0N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF NADINE\n 12H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":68,"Date":"2018-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  68\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018\n\nSatellite imagery suggests that Leslie has started extratropical\ntransition.  The mid-level eye seen earlier in both conventional\nand microwave satellite imagery has become less distinct, and it is\ncontinuing to separate from the low-level center.  In addition,\ncolder air is entraining into the western and southern sides of the\ncirculation.  However, a sizable cluster of convection persists to\nthe northeast of the center, indicating that the cyclone is still\ntropical at this time.  The large-scale models forecast that Leslie\nwill likely complete transition in 12 to perhaps 18 h, and that the\nassociated winds should remain at or near hurricane force until the\ncenter moves over the Iberian Peninsula.  After landfall, rapid\nweakening is forecast, and the cyclone should dissipate as it\nbecomes part of a broad low pressure area over Spain between 36-48\nh.\n\nThe initial motion is 070/33 as Leslie is now well embedded in the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  A continued east-northeastward motion with\na gradual decrease in forward speed is expected for the next 36 h.\nThis should bring the center of Leslie onshore on the Iberian\nPeninsula in about 18 h and into western Spain by about 24 h.  There\nis little change in either the track guidance or the track forecast\nfrom the last advisory.\n\nThe meteorological services of Portugal and Spain will handle hazard\ninformation for their respective countries via local weather\nproducts.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to\nportions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical\ncyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of\nwestern Spain tonight and Sunday.\n\n2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1\nto 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)\nacross portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash\nflooding.\n\n3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should\nrefer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and\nAtmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to\nproducts from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 36.2N  16.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 37.7N  11.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  14/0600Z 39.6N   6.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  14/1800Z 41.3N   2.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":69,"Date":"2018-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Leslie Discussion Number  69\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n1100 AM AST Sat Oct 13 2018\n\nDespite Leslie moving over 20C ocean and being embedded within\nstrong shear, satellite data indicate that Leslie has maintained\nits deep warm core and is running ahead of a cold front. Although\nconvection has weakened considerably, Dvorak estimates indicate\nthat the winds are still 65 kt.  All indications are that Leslie\nwill acquire extratropical characteristics in the next several\nhours, and by the time it reaches the Iberian peninsula later today,\nthe system will be a powerful post-tropical cyclone. After landfall,\nrapid weakening is anticipated, and Leslie is forecast to degenerate\ninto a broad low pressure area over Spain in a day or so.\n\nLeslie is racing toward the northeast or 055 degrees at about 29 kt\nwhile embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerlies.  A continued\nnortheastward motion with gradual decrease in forward speed is\nanticipated in the next 12 to 24 hours. This is consistent with\nmost of the track guidance, which unanimously brings the core of the\npost-tropical cyclone over the Iberian peninsula tonight.\n\nThe meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling\nhazards information for their respective countries via local weather\nproducts.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to\nportions of Portugal late today as a powerful post-tropical\ncyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of\nwestern Spain tonight and Sunday.\n\n2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1\nto 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)\nacross portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash\nflooding.\n\n3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should\nrefer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and\nAtmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to\nproducts from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 38.0N  12.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 40.0N   8.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  14/1200Z 41.5N   4.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Leslie","Adv":70,"Date":"2018-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Leslie Discussion Number  70\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018\n500 PM AST Sat Oct 13 2018\n\nAfter a total of 70 advisories, long-lived Leslie has become\npost-tropical just west of the coast of Portugal, finally succumbing\nto the combination of cool waters, strong vertical wind shear, and\ninteraction with an approaching cold front. The air mass ahead of\nthe cyclone has moistened up in the low levels with Faro, Portugal,\nreporting a dewpoint of 70F/21C, but the dewpoints across central\nand northern Portugal ahead of Leslie are only in the low-60F range,\nwhich is not indicative of a tropical air mass. Thus, the cyclone is\nnow a powerful post-tropical low pressure system that even has a\npartial eye noted in the most recent 2000Z Portuguese composite\nradar imagery. After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, and\nLeslie is forecast to degenerate into a broad low pressure area over\nor just north of Spain by late Sunday.\n\nLeslie is moving quickly toward the northeast or 050/30 kt.\nPost-tropical Cyclone Leslie should continue in a fast northeastward\ndirection for the next 12-18 hours, making landfall near or just\nsouth of Porto, Portugal by 14/0000Z. This forecast motion is\nconsistent with the previous advisory and the latest track model\nguidance.\n\nThe meteorological services of Portugal and Spain are handling\nhazards information for their respective countries via local weather\nproducts. This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory\non this system.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Leslie is expected to bring near hurricane-force winds to\nportions of Portugal later tonight as a powerful post-tropical\ncyclone.  Gale-force winds are also likely to affect portions of\nnorthwestern and northern Spain tonight and Sunday.\n\n2. Leslie is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 25 to 75 mm (1\nto 3 inches) with isolated amounts as high as 125 mm (5 inches)\nacross portions of Portugal and Spain, which could cause flash\nflooding.\n\n3. For more information on Leslie, interests in Portugal should\nrefer to products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and\nAtmosphere at www.ipma.pt.  Interests in Spain should refer to\nproducts from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 40.5N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  14/0600Z 43.0N   4.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL INLAND\n 24H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018\n\nA small low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for the\npast couple of days has finally acquired enough organized convection\nto be designated a tropical depression, which is located less than\n100 nmi off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Cloud tops near the\ncenter have recently been as cold as -90C, and satellite intensity\nestimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial\nintensity is set at 30 kt based on an earlier OSCAT/ScatSat\nscatterometer pass that had a few uncontaminated wind vectors\nlocated just north of a well-defined low-level circulation center,\nwhich is similar to yesterday's ASCAT passes.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/05 kt. The small cyclone is\nforecast by the global and regional models to move only slowly\nwestward to southwestward at less than 5 kt for the new few days due\nto the system being caught in a break in the subtropical ridge that\nextends from central Mexico southwestward into the eastern Pacific.\nBy days 4 and 5, the ridge is forecast to build westward to the\nnorth of the system, acting to nudge the cyclone westward at a\nslightly faster forward speed. The NHC forecast track lies between\nthe consensus models TVCE and HCCA.\n\nThe environment is expected to be somewhat conducive for gradual\nstrengthening of the cyclone throughout the forecast period. The\nstatistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM aren't overly enthused\nwith intensifying the system, but that is mainly due to the high\nshear values calculated from the very poleward TABM beta-advection\nmodel, which recurves the cyclone into strong mid-latitude flow on\ndays 4 and 5. In contrast, the HWRF model keeps the system farther\nsouth and gradually develops the cyclone into a hurricane by 72 h,\nand then continues with slight strengthening beyond that time. Given\nthat the shear is expected to only be around 10 kt from an easterly\nto southeasterly direction and water temperatures near 30 deg C\nbeneath the small cyclone, some gradual strengthening appears to be\nplausible with only some slight land interaction being the primary\nmodulating factor until the system moves farther away from Mexico in\nabout 72 h.\n\nBased on the small size of the circulation and its projected motion\naway from Mexico, tropical storm warnings and watches are not\nrequired at this time. However, only a slight deviation to the right\nof the forecast track would bring stronger winds closer to the\ncoast, which would require the issuance of a tropical storm warning.\nRegardless, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the\ncoast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and\nflash flooding will be a possibility in mountainous areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 17.0N 102.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 17.2N 103.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 17.0N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 16.6N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 16.3N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z 16.5N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  19/1200Z 16.9N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n400 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018\n\nAlthough convective activity has decreased since the previous\nadvisory, good cyclonic rotation is noted in the small convective\nelements, and an upper-level anticyclone has developed over the\nlow-level center based on weak cirrus outflow now occuring in all\nquadrants. A fortuitous ship located about 30 nmi west of the\ncenter at 1800Z reported a 30-kt northerly wind and 1010.7 mb\npressure, which helped to locate the center, and also to estimate\nthe intensity and central pressure of the depression. The initial\nintensity therefore remains 30 kt, which is supported by a satellite\nintensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and a 1542Z ScatSat pass.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The latest model guidance\ncontinues the previous motion trend by only moving the cyclone\nslowly westward to west-southwestward at less than 5 kt for the next\nfew days due to the depression remaining embedded within a break in\na deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends southwestward from\ncentral Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A broad upper-level trough\nand low located over the southwestern United States is forecast to\nweaken and lift out slowly to the northeast on days 4 and 5, which\nwill allow the ridge to gradually build westward to the north of the\ncyclone. This should result in an increase in the easterly flow\nsouth of the ridge, helping to nudge the cyclone westward at a\nslightly faster forward speed. The new NHC forecast track is a\nlittle north of the previous advisory track after 48 h, and lies\nbetween the consensus models TVCE and HCCA.\n\nThe cyclone is forecast to be embedded within an environment that is\nsomewhat conducive for at least gradual strengthening to occur. The\ncyclone's small circulation and a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of\nonly 25-30 nmi would suggest that rapid intensification could\noccur since the wind shear is expected to decrease to around 5 kt\nafter 36 hours. However, proximity to land is expected to\ncontinue to disrupt the outer circulation and also create downslope\nconditions off the coastal mountains, which will produce occasional\nintrusions of dry air. The result is that only modest strengthening\nis forecast for the next 5 days, and the official intensity\nforecast is similar to a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity\nconsensus models.\n\nThe small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from\nMexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this\ntime. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast\ntrack would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would\nrequire the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the\nwinds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash\nflooding will be possible in mountainous areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 17.4N 104.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 17.4N 104.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 17.4N 104.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 17.3N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 17.4N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z 17.9N 108.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  19/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Twenty-Two-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 14 2018\n\nFor the first time in the depression's (and its predecessor low's)\nexistence, deep convection has persisted for more than a few hours.\nThe convective canopy has been slowly expanding, although it is\nstill a little restricted on the eastern side due some easterly\nshear.  Based on microwave data, the structure of the cyclone has\nbeen slow to improve in organization, and consensus T2.0s from TAFB\nand SAB support maintaining a 30-kt initial intensity.\n\nThe depression is located near the western edge of a mid-level\nridge, with a deep-layer trough located not too far to the north\nacross northwestern Mexico and the western United States.  Its\nposition places the depression within weak steering currents, and\nthe system is likely to drift west-northwestward or even meander at\nspeeds of less than 5 kt for much of the forecast period.  The track\nguidance has shifted a little more to the northwest on this cycle,\nand the NHC forecast has therefore been adjusted north of the\nprevious official forecast, although not as far as the TVCN\nmulti-model consensus nor the HCCA aid.  Despite this adjustment,\nthe cyclone is expected to remain small, which should keep\ntropical-storm-force winds offshore of the coast of Mexico.\n\nThe forecast reasoning for the future intensity has changed\nsubstantially.  For the first 3 days, vertical shear is expected to\ngradually decrease, and the cyclone's small size will make it prone\nto significant strengthening during that period.  In fact, based on\nthe Rapid Intensification Indices, the chance of a 30-kt increase\nin 24 hours is 3 times more than average, and the chance of a 65-kt\nincrease in 72 hours is almost 9 times more than average.\nTherefore, the NHC intensity forecast is above most of the guidance\nthrough day 3, with the possibility of the depression becoming a\nhurricane during that time.  After day 3, the models are trending\ntoward the cyclone entering a region of higher shear associated\nwith the western U.S. trough, which would likely lead to a\nweakening trend.  Most of the intensity models suggest that the\ncyclone's intensity will peak around 3 days, and therefore the NHC\nintensity forecast now indicates weakening on days 4 and 5\n(although it is still well above most of the models).  This is a\nlow-confidence intensity forecast, and additional adjustments are\nlikely in future advisories.\n\nThe small size of the circulation and its projected motion away from\nMexico does not require tropical storm warnings or watches at this\ntime. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the forecast\ntrack would bring stronger winds closer to the coast, which would\nrequire the issuance of a tropical storm warning. Regardless of the\nwinds, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and flash\nflooding will be possible in mountainous areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 17.5N 104.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 17.7N 104.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 17.7N 104.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 17.8N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 18.4N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 19.3N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 19.6N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tara","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n400 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has improved\nsomewhat overnight, with convection continuing to burst over the\nwestern and northwestern portions of the circulation.  The center\nis slightly more embedded within the southeastern portion of the\ncold cloud tops, but easterly shear continues to restrict\nconvection over the eastern portion of the system.  A couple of\nASCAT passes around 0400 UTC were helpful in locating the center of\nthe cyclone and both indicated peak winds of 25 to 30 kt to the\nwest of the center.  Dvorak classifications at 0600 UTC were\nT2.5 (35 kt) from both SAB and TAFB, and given the increase in\norganization, the system has been upgraded to a 35-kt tropical\nstorm. The nineteenth named storm of the 2018 eastern North Pacific\nhurricane season.\n\nRecent microwave imagery and the ASCAT data show that Tara has not\nmoved much, and the initial motion estimate is stationary for\nthis advisory.  Although the tropical storm is located within an\narea of weak steering currents and little overall motion is\nexpected during the next couple of days, the track guidance has\nbecome much more divergent this cycle.  The GFS and UKMET models\nhave trended northward and now bring Tara near the southwestern\ncoast of Mexico within the next day or so.  On the other hand, the\nECMWF takes Tara southeastward and southward away from the coast.\nThe various consensus aids have trended northward in the\nshort-term, and the new NHC track forecast has been nudged in that\ndirection through 36 hours, but it is not as far north as the GFS,\nGFS ensemble mean, and UKMET models.  After 48 hours, a ridge is\nforecast to build westward across central Mexico, which should cause\nTara to turn west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed.\nGiven the spread in the guidance and its recent trends, the track\nforecast is of low confidence.\n\nThe intensity forecast is also very challenging and of low\nconfidence this morning. Tara is expected to remain under the\ninfluence of easterly shear during the next day or two.  The shear,\nhowever, is not expected to be strong enough to prevent gradual\nstrengthening.  After that time, the intensity forecast depends on\nhow close to the coast the cyclone moves.  If Tara gets too close to\nsouthwestern Mexico, the small cyclone is likely to weaken.  If it\nstays offshore, however, the shear is forecast to decrease which\nshould allow for additional strengthening.  Since the NHC track\nforecast keeps Tara offshore, it calls for gradual strengthening\nthrough 72 hours, but it is not as aggressive as before since most\nof the guidance is lower than before.  Increasing southwesterly\nshear by days 4 and 5 should lead to weakening, and although the NHC\nforecast keeps Tara a tropical storm trough the period, most of the\nglobal models weaken and dissipate the system by the end of the\nweek.\n\nDue to the uncertainties in the track forecast, the government of\nMexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the coast\nof southwest Mexico.  Regardless of how close Tara tracks to\nsouthwestern Mexico, heavy rainfall will be the primary threat along\nthe coast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion,\nand life-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous\nareas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.5N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.8N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 17.9N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 18.0N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 18.3N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  20/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tara","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018\n\nTara remains a small, sheared tropical cyclone with convection\ncontinuing to go through bursting phases near the low-level center.\nExtremely cold overshooting cloud tops of -90C to -95C have been\noccurring just north of the center during the past couple of hours,\nand the convective cloud shield has gradually been expanding\nsoutheastward over the center. Satellite intensity estimates are\nT3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the most recent\nobjective ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T3.1/47 kt. Based on these\ndata, the intensity is conservatively raised to 40 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/01 kt. Tara is\nexpected to only drift toward the west-northwest or northwest for\nthe next couple of days while the small cyclone remains embedded in\nweak steering currents. The GFS and UKMET models move Tara inland\njust west of Manzanillo, Mexico, in 36-48 hours, whereas the ECMWF,\nGFS-FV3, HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and Canadian models keep the center\noffshore. For now, the official forecast track follows the consensus\nmodels TVCE, HCCA, and FSSE, keeping the center offshore the\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico since there appears to be no\nsignificant steering mechanism to force the circulation onshore for\nthe next couple of days. After 48 hours, the ridge to the north of\nTara is forecast to build westward across central Mexico, forcing\nthe cyclone on a west-northwestward track at a slightly faster\nforward speed. However, due to continued large spread in the\nguidance, the track forecast is of low confidence.\n\nModerate easterly to southeasterly shear is forecast by the models\nto affect Tara for the next 24 hours or so. By 36 hours, the shear\nis forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and remain low until 72\nhours, which should allow for some modest strengthening to occur...\nassuming the center remains offshore. The small circulation, low\nvertical wind shear conditions, and warm ocean temperatures near 30C\nwould typically result in more significant strengthening, but\nproximity to land and a dry surrounding environment is expected to\ntemper the intensification process somewhat. By days 4 and 5,\nsouthwesterly shear forecast to increase to around 20 kt should is\nexpected to induce some slight weakening. The official intensity\nforecast is similar to but slightly higher than the consensus models\nHCCA, IVCN, and FSSE, and maintains continuity with the previous\nforecast.\n\nRegardless of how close Tara comes to southwestern Mexico, heavy\nrainfall will be the primary threat along the coast of southwestern\nMexico due to the system's slow motion, and life-threatening flash\nflooding will be possible in mountainous areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 17.6N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 17.8N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 17.9N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 17.9N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 18.0N 105.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 18.4N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 18.9N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 19.0N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tara","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n400 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018\n\nTara is now a tiny tropical storm consisting of a small, circular\narea of intense convection that continues to go through bursting\nphases. Two recent ASCAT scatterometer passes revealed that the\npersistent cold overshooting cloud tops of -85C to -90C near the\ncenter has apparently stretched the vortex column vertically,\ncausing the intensity to increase and wind field to shrink. The\n34-kt wind radii have contracted down to about 20 nmi, and the\noutermost circulation has decreased to only about 140 nmi wide. The\nhighest ASCAT wind speed value measured was 40 kt on both passes.\nHowever, actual peak winds were likely undersampled given that they\nwere observed at a distance of only 10 nmi from the center. The\ninitial intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a Dvorak\nsatellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB,\nan objective UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.4/53 kt and a SATCON\nestimate of 48 kt, and this estimate is probably conservative.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/02 kt. Tara's\ncenter has likely re-developed closer to the strong convective\nbursts that had been occuring just north of the previous low-level\ncenter. As such, the exact direction and speed of the tiny tropical\ncyclone is difficult to ascertain. Recent scatterometer and visible\nsatellite data suggest that Tara may have become stationary or is\nmaking a tight loop. All of the global and regional models now keep\nthe tiny tropical cyclone offshore for the entire 120-h forecast\nperiod, and the new NHC model guidance indicates that a slow,\nerratic motion toward the west-northwest or northwest should\noccur for the next five days while Tara remains embedded within a\nweak steering flow regime. The new official track forecast follows\nthe trend of the previous few advisory tracks, and lies near a blend\nof the HCCA, FSSE, and TVCE consensus models. However, due to the\ncontinued large spread in the guidance, the track forecast is of\nlow to moderate confidence.\n\nThe intensity forecast is problematic due to Tara's very small\ncirculation since tiny tropical cyclones can both spin up or spin\ndown very quickly. Moderate easterly to southeasterly vertical wind\nshear is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours or so, followed\nby a pronounced decrease in the shear until 48-72 hours. These\nconditions should allow for a slow but steady increase in the\nintensity. However, during the 36-to-60-hour period when the shear\nwill be the lowest, more significant strengthening could occur due\nto Tara's small circulation. However, none of the guidance brings\nthe tiny cyclone to hurricane strength. By days 4 and 5,\nsouthwesterly wind shear is forecast to increase to around 20 kt,\nwhich is expected to induce gradual weakening. Due to Tara's small\ncirculation, the official intensity forecast is slightly higher than\nthe consensus models HCCA, IVCN, and FSSE, and closely follows the\nLGEM statistical-dynamical intensity forecast aid.\n\nRegardless of how close Tara comes to southwestern Mexico, heavy\nrainfall will continue to be the primary threat along the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and\nlife-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous\nareas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 18.0N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 18.1N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 18.2N 105.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 18.2N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 18.7N 107.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 18.8N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tara","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018\n\nA high-resolution GCOM microwave pass from 2030 UTC revealed that\nTara remains a tiny tropical cyclone, but it has also developed\ntightly coiled convective bands which could not be observed in\nconvectional satellite imagery alone.  With this improved\nstructure, TAFB's Dvorak estimate, the ADT estimate, and SATCON all\nincreased to 55 kt, and that is set as the initial intensity on\nthis advisory.\n\nThe GCOM pass also indicated that Tara's center has moved closer to\nthe coast of Mexico, albeit slowly, and the initial motion estimate\nis northwestward, or 325/2 kt.  Tara's future track has become less\nclear, and the NHC track forecast is of very low confidence.  The\nmost reliable global models (the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models)\neither bring Tara inland over Mexico or have the system dissipating\njust offshore during the next couple of days, and as a result, there\nwere very few model trackers to follow when making the forecast.\nUsing what little vorticity can be followed in the global model\nfields, the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward,\ncloser to the coast of Mexico.  This new forecast has Tara's small\ntropical-storm-force wind field grazing the coast of Colima and\nJalisco within the next 12-24 hours, and since there's also a\npossibility that the center will move inland, the government of\nMexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch from Manzanillo to Cabo\nCorrientes to a Tropical Storm Warning.\n\nDue to Tara's small size, continued intensification is possible.\nHowever, moderate southeasterly shear is forecast to continue for\nthe next 24 hours, and as a result, the NHC forecast holds the\nintensity at 55 kt for the next day or two.  After 24 hours, the\nshear vector begins to turn more southerly and southwesterly, which\nwill likely allow drier air to entrain into the circulation.  And,\nthat all assumes that Tara will not have moved inland by that time.\nBased on these environmental factors, and the fact that the models\nare now showing the circulation dissipating much sooner, the\nnew NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast at\n48 hours and beyond, showing Tara becoming a remnant low by day 4\nand dissipating by day 5.\n\nHeavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and\nlife-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous\nareas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 18.4N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 18.7N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 19.0N 105.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 19.1N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 18.9N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 18.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tara","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n400 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018\n\nAn AMSU microwave overpass after the release of the previous\nadvisory suggests that Tara is a little less organized than before.\nThe image showed that the center of the small tropical cyclone was\nlocated near the southeastern portion of a curved convective band,\nbut it was not as tightly coiled as before.  Conventional satellite\nimagery has also revealed an overall decrease in the area of deep\nconvection and size of the cold clouds tops overnight.  Based on\nthese trends, the initial intensity is reduced to 50 kt, which is\na blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications.\n\nThe track and intensity forecasts remain quite challenging this\nmorning.  It appears that southeasterly shear and the interaction of\nthe circulation with the high terrain of southwestern Mexico have\ncaused weakening overnight.  As the system moves closer to the\ncoast, additional weakening is predicted, and the NHC forecast\ncalls for a gradual decrease in intensity over the next few days.\nIt is possible that Tara will weaken and dissipate much sooner than\nshown below if the small tropical cyclone moves inland or is so\nclose to the coast that the circulation becomes disrupted by the\nmountainous terrain.  The latter is the scenario favored by most\nof the typically reliable dynamical model guidance.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Tara continues to inch closer to the\ncoast of southwestern Mexico, and the somewhat uncertain initial\nmotion estimate is north-northwest or 335 degrees at 2 kt.  The\nlatest runs of the global models once again either bring Tara\ninland over Mexico today or show it dissipating near the\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico within the next day or so.  As a\nresult, the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted northward and\nbrings the center of Tara very close to the coast within the next\n12 to 24 hours.  Out of respect for continuity of the previous\nadvisories, the new NHC forecast keeps Tara meandering near\nsouthwestern Mexico through 72 hours, but it is possible\nthat the storm will weaken and dissipate much sooner. Regardless of\nthe exact track or intensity of Tara, heavy rainfall will continue\nto be a threat along the coast of southwestern Mexico due to the\nsystem's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be\npossible in mountainous areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 18.7N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 19.1N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 19.5N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 19.9N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tara","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Tara Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018\n\nA surge of moderate to strong southeasterly wind shear early this\nmorning decapitated Tara, with the original upper-level circulation\nnow displaced more than 100 nmi to the north or just east of Puerto\nVallarta. Convection waned considerably as a result of the shear and\ndecoupling of the low- and upper-level circulations, but\nthunderstorm activity has made a little bit of comeback over the\npast few hours. However, the decoupling likely resulted in\nsignificant weakening of the tiny tropical storm, so the intensity\nhas been lowered to 40 kt, which is slightly higher than the 35-kt\nwinds noted in an earlier ScatSat scatterometer overpass.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 335/01 kt. Data\nfrom a recent 1035Z SSMI/S overpass suggest that Tara hasn't moved\nmuch, if at all, during the past 12 hours. The first few visible\nsatellite images also indicate this, and that Tara may just be a\nsmall swirl embedded within a northwest-to-southeast elongated\ntrough. For now, the system is being maintained as a tiny tropical\ncyclone that is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the\naforementioned surface trough axis. Almost all of the model guidance\nwith the exception of the HWRF and NAVGEM models dissipate the\ncyclone in 24-36 hours, so the forecast track beyond 24 hours leans\nheavily on continuity with the previous advisory track, along with\nsome input from the HWRF model. However, it is quite possible that\nTara could dissipate sooner than indicated.\n\nThe vertical shear is forecast to weaken to less than 10 kt in 12-18\nhours, but there may not be enough of a circulation remaining at\nthat time to take advantage of the improving environment. Intrusions\nof dry mid-level air along with some interaction with the\nmountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico are expected to override\nthe favorable wind shear environment, causing Tara to weaken to a\ndepression within 24 hours, and degenerate into a remnant low\npressure system by 36 hours. However, weakening could occur more\nrapidly than forecast due to the recent loss of vertically\nstructure.\n\nRegardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,\nheavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate\ncoast of southwestern Mexico due to the system's slow motion, and\nlife-threatening flash flooding will be possible in mountainous\nareas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 18.6N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 18.9N 104.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 19.2N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/1200Z 19.7N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Tara","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Tara Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n400 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018\n\nInteraction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico,\nalong with some modest southeasterly wind shear and drier mid-level\nair, have combined to weaken tiny Tara. The tropical cyclone still\nhas a tight spiral convective banding signature in recent microwave\nimagery. However, the northern portion of the small circulation\nis clearly interacting with the coastal mountains, and surface\nobservations from Manzanillo, Mexico (MMZO) since 1500Z have\nindicated a veering wind from northeast to southeast at a steady 20\nkt. The position and intensity were based in part on the MMZO\nobservations and a 1541Z ScatSat pass, but mainly on a 1630Z AMSU\nmicrowave satellite overpass.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 325/02 kt. Surface wind direction\ndata from MMZO indicate that Tara passed west of that station's\nlongitude around 1530Z. Visible and scatterometer satellite data\nindicate that a surface/low-level trough lies northwest-to-southeast\njust offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, and the tiny\ntropical cyclone is expected to drift slowly northwestward along the\ntrough axis for the next 12-24 hours as per most of the new 12Z\nglobal models. The HWRF hangs on to a weak low until about 48 hours\nor so, with dissipation occurring quickly thereafter. The official\nforecast lies between these two scenarios, keeping Tara as a remnant\nlow through 36 hours. However, if the small cyclone doesn't move\naway from Mexico within the next 12 hours, then degeneration into a\nremnant low and eventual dissipation could occur sooner than\nforecast due to continued intrusions of drier mid-level air and\ninteraction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico.\n\nRegardless of the exact track or intensity of Tara or its remnants,\nheavy rainfall will continue to be a threat along the immediate\ncoast of southwestern Mexico for the next day or so due to the\nsystem's slow motion, and life-threatening flash flooding will be\npossible in mountainous areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 19.0N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 19.2N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 19.5N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  18/0600Z 19.7N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Tara","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP222018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Tara Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222018\n1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018\n\nData from several recent microwave overpasses, last-light visible\nimagery, and surface observations from Mexico indicate that Tara no\nlonger has a well-defined surface center. The mid-level center of\nthe former tropical cyclone appeared to move inland earlier this\nevening, though it is unclear whether the surface center made it\nthat far. Regardless, the high terrain of Mexico has caused the\nsurface circulation to open into a trough of low pressure and\ndissipate. This is the last NHC advisory on Tara. Although the\nremnant trough will likely produce intermittent convection near the\ncoast of Mexico tonight, continued close proximity to land should\nprevent it from reorganizing into a tropical cyclone, and all of the\nglobal models indicate that the remnants will gradual weaken over\nthe next 12 hours or so.\n\nAlthough Tara is no longer a tropical depression, its remnants\ncould still cause heavy rainfall along portions of the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico overnight. Life-threatening flash flooding and\nmudslides will be possible in mountainous areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 20.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TARA\n 12H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-10-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018\n \nTwo distinct areas of low pressure formed late yesterday within a\nsprawling area of disturbed weather that stretched from Central\nAmerica westward over the eastern Pacific waters south of Mexico.\nThe easternmost low south of Guatemala is small and has spun up\nquickly, with deep convection continuing to burst near the center of\ncirculation.  Microwave data, first-light visible images, and\nvaluable radar data from Guatemala also show a tight core and\nincreasing convective bands.  Maximum winds are set at 30 kt,\nslightly above last evening's ASCAT pass and a T1.5 Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB, given the system's well-developed\nstructure.\n \nThe depression is located over warm waters (28-29 degrees Celsius)\nand in a light-shear environment.  These conditions should support\nfurther strengthening, and the depression's small size may allow for\nintensification higher than what is indicated by the intensity\nmodels.  For this first advisory, the NHC intensity forecast is near\nthe top end of the guidance envelope and levels off the maximum\nwinds in 3-5 days when there could be an increase in shear.\n \nSince the low formed recently, the depression's current motion is\nuncertain. However, microwave fixes indicate that it hasn't moved\nmuch since last evening, and the initial motion estimate is slowly\nwest-northwestward, or 300/2 kt.  A strong mid-level ridge spanning\nacross the Gulf of Mexico and northern Mexico should steer the\ncyclone generally westward for the next 3 days or so.  After day 3,\nthe ridge is expected to retreat eastward a bit, and the cyclone\nshould begin to turn northwestward between the ridge and another\nlow pressure system to the west.  The track models are in good\nagreement on this general scenario, but there is not agreement on\nhow close the system could get to the coast of Mexico during the\nforecast period.  Therefore, interests along the southern and\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this\nsystem during the next few days.  Regardless of how close it gets\nto the coast, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash\nflooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and\nsoutheastern Mexico during the next few days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  19/1500Z 13.3N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 13.7N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 13.5N  94.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 13.3N  94.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 13.3N  96.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 13.8N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n \n$$\nForecaster Berg\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-10-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018\n\nAlthough tiny, the cyclone continues to display well-defined\nconvective banding.  The system's quick formation and small size\nmake it difficult to have high confidence in its current intensity,\nand the various subjective and objective estimates range from\nT1.8/28 kt from the ADT to T3.0/45 kt from SAB.  As a compromise,\nthe intensity is set at 35 kt, which is closest to the TAFB estimate\nand the most recent SATCON number, and the depression is upgraded to\nTropical Storm Vicente.\n\nAs noted this morning, warm waters and low shear should induce\nfurther strengthening during the next 48 hours.  On one hand, this\nintensification could be more than what is being indicated by the\nmodels, since small systems can have a tendency to gain strength\nquickly.  On the other hand, Vicente will be interacting with a Gulf\nof Tehuantepec gap wind event during the next 48 hours, and the\nstorm could end up ingesting some drier, more stable air into its\ncirculation.  The NHC intensity forecast favors the former scenario\nand is a little above the guidance envelope for the first 2-3 days.\nAfter day 3, an increase in shear, interaction with another possible\ntropical cyclone to the west, and possible interaction with land\ncould all conspire to arrest the intensification trend, and\nweakening is expected by the end of the forecast period.  It is also\npossible that Vicente could dissipate before the end of the 5-day\nperiod.  This scenario is reminiscent of, and has similarities to,\nthe interaction of Tropical Storm Ileana and Hurricane John back in\nearly August.\n\nVicente is moving very slowly northwestward, or 305/2 kt.  The\ntrack models are indicating that the ongoing gap winds over the Gulf\nof Tehuantepec may have a greater influence of Vicente than\npreviously thought, forcing the storm to turn west-southwestward in\nthe next 24-48 hours.  After 48 hours, Vicente should gradually\nenter the flow between mid-level ridging over Mexico and low\npressure west of Mexico, causing it to turn back to the west and\nnorthwest on days 3 through 5.  The new NHC track forecast is not\ntoo different from the morning forecast during that period, and it's\nclosest to the paths shown by the GFS, HCCA, and FSSE guidance,\nwhich would bring the center close to the coast of Mexico later in\nthe forecast period. There are considerable speed differences,\nhowever, and the NHC forecast splits the difference between the fast\nECMWF solution and the slow GFS scenario.\n\nEven though Vicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast\ntonight and on Saturday, heavy rainfall, with possible\nlife-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El\nSalvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few\ndays.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 13.3N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 13.6N  93.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 13.3N  94.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 12.9N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 12.7N  96.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 13.7N  99.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  23/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  24/1800Z 20.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-10-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018\n\nRadar imagery from Guatemala has been extremely helpful in tracking\nthe center of Vicente, especially after sunset.  The low-level\ncenter of the small tropical storm appears to have accelerated\nnorthwestward during the past couple of hours, away from its rapidly\ndecaying central dense overcast, and is now almost entirely\nexposed. Analysis from UW-CIMSS indicates that 10-15 knots of\nnorthwesterly shear is currently affecting Vicente, and this appears\nto have been enough to significantly disrupt the organization of the\ncyclone, probably due to its small size.  The initial intensity has\nbeen held at 35 kt based on objective and subjective satellite\nestimates at 00Z, but given the tiny size of Vicente and its\nlarge swings in organization since early this morning, its unclear\nhow representative these estimates are of the true maximum winds.\n\nVicente is now moving west-northwestward, or 300/3 kt, and all of\nthe guidance indicates that it will turn westward overnight.  After\nthat time, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will likely cause\nthe cyclone to turn southwestward, especially if Vicente remains\nweak and shallow.  A few models even indicate the tropical storm\ncould dissipate entirely as it interacts with these winds. Assuming\nthe cyclone makes it past the Gulf of Tehuantepec intact, Vicente\nshould turn back toward the west-northwest or northwest after about\n48 h as it gets steered by the flow between a mid-level ridge over\nMexico and another tropical cyclone that will likely develop off the\ncoast of Mexico by that time.  The NHC forecast has been shifted a\nlittle to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and\nFSSE aids, but is generally similar to the previous advisory.\n\nDue in part to the rapid decline in Vicente's organization this\nevening, the intensity forecast has been adjusted lower at most\nforecast hours for the first 48 h of the forecast, but is still\ngenerally higher than the model consensus. Most of the intensity\nguidance still calls for intensification, especially between 36 h\nand 72 h, when Vicente should be past the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and\nthe shear should remain generally low. By the end of the forecast\nperiod, the global models indicate that Vicente will interact with a\nmuch larger tropical cyclone to its west, which should cause Vicente\nto weaken and possibly dissipate, though a 120 h point is still\ncarried in this forecast for continuity purposes.\n\nVicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight\nand on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible\nlife-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El\nSalvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few\ndays.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 13.7N  92.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 13.7N  93.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 13.3N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 12.5N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 12.3N  97.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  23/0000Z 13.8N 100.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  24/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  25/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-10-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n\nRadar data from Guatemala indicate that Vicente remains a very small\nbut well-defined tropical cyclone, which has occasionally exhibited\nan eye-like feature. However, convection has waned during the past\nfew hours, so it is difficult to accurately ascertain the intensity\nof such a tiny storm since small systems like this can spin up and\nspin down very quickly owing to minor convective fluctuations. For\nnow, it is assumed that Vicente is still a tropical storm based on\nsatellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and\n41 kt from UW-CIMSS SATCON; the most recent ADT value, however, was\nT2.2/32 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. Over the last 18 hours, it\nappears that Vicente's track has been doing some coastal hugging.\nThat being said, the tropical storm is expected to turn more\nwestward during the next 12 h and emerge over the open Gulf of\nTehuantepec where a modest gap wind event is forecast to turn the\ncyclone southwestward by this evening. The latest 00Z model guidance\nis surprisingly in very good agreement on the development of this\nunusual track scenario. By 36-48 hours, a gradual turn toward the\nwest is expected, followed by a motion toward the northwest on days\n3-5 as the small cyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a\ndeep-layer ridge located over the Gulf of Mexico and central Mexico.\nAssuming Vicente survives the next 96 hours, on day 5 the tropical\ncyclone is expected to come under the influence of the new and much\nlarger Tropical Depression 24-E -- currently located about 700 nmi\nto the west -- and possibly become absorbed or forced inland over\nsouthwestern Mexico by that system. The new NHC forecast was nudged\na little to the west at most forecast times, closer to the HCCA and\nFSSE corrected consensus models.\n\nVertical shear is forecast to be less than 10 kt and the mid-level\nmoisture is expected to be high with humidity values of more than 75\npercent for the next 36 hours. This should allow for some gradual\nstrengthening to occur during that time despite Vicente's proximity\nto land. By 48 hours and beyond, however, northerly shear is\nexpected to increase across the small cyclone, which should act to\ncap the intensification process and induce some gradual weakening\nby 96h. On day 5, the shear is forecast to exceed 20 kt, due in\nlarge part to the expected strong outflow from a strengthening\nTD-24E, resulting in significant weakening or even dissipation of\nVicente. The official intensity forecast is similar to but slightly\nbelow the previous forecast, and lies close to an average of the\nHCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.\n\nVicente should begin to slowly pull away from the coast overnight\nand on Saturday, however, heavy rainfall, with possible\nlife-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions\nsoutheastern Mexico during the next few days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 14.0N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 14.1N  93.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 13.5N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 12.9N  97.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 13.1N  98.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  23/0600Z 15.2N 101.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  24/0600Z 18.3N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  25/0600Z 21.8N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-10-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Discussion Number   1...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n\nCorrected advisory number from 2 to 1\n\nVarious satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure that\nNHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico for thew\npast few days has acquired enough convective organization to be\ndesignated as a tropical depression, the twenty-fourth one of the\nvery busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although the\ndepression is a sheared system, some banding features have recently\ndeveloped south of the center, while overshooting cloud tops just\nwest of the center are quite cold -85 to -91 deg C). The initial\nintensity is set to 30 kt based on a satellite intensity estimate of\nT2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt, based primarily on passive\nmicrowave fixes and GOES-16 nighttime imagery. A gradual turn toward\nthe west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a\nslower northwestward motion on Sunday as the system moves along the\nsouthwestern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. A slow\nnorthwestward motion is expected to continue into early next week\nwhile the ridge to the north changes little.  On days 4 and 5,\nhowever, a series of weak shortwave troughs are forecast to move\nthrough the larger scale southwesterly flow locked in over the\nsouthwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, causing an erosion of the\nwestern portion of the ridge, which should allow the cyclone to\ngradually recurve northward and north-northeastward. The NHC model\nguidance is in good agreement overall on this developing track\nscenario, and the official forecast track lies between the HCCA and\nTVCE track consensus aids.\n\nThe depression is expected to steadily strengthen during the next 96\nhours due to very favorable environmental conditions consisting of\nlow vertical wind shear (less than 10 kt), high amounts of mid-level\nmoisture, and warm 28-30 deg C SSTs.  As a result, the cyclone is\nexpected to become a tropical storm later this morning, a hurricane\nby Sunday night, and be near major hurricane strength by Wednesday.\nGiven the very favorable conditions expected on Sunday and Monday,\nthere is a fair chance of rapid intensification occurring similar to\nthat depicted by the COAMPS-TC and HMON models, which bring the\ncyclone to category-4 status around 72 hours. The NHC official\nintensity forecast near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models through\n96 hours, and then a little above the guidance at 120 hours despite\nan increase in the shear expected at that time.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 15.1N 104.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-10-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n\nConventional satellite imagery and microwave data continue to\nreveal that Vicente is an unusually small tropical cyclone. Data\nshow a ring of convection defining the center with most of the\nthunderstorm activity on the southwestern portion of the\ncirculation. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial\nintensity of 35 kt. The cyclone is not in the best environment for\nintensification given that the circulation has been interacting with\nland, however the shear is not high, and the cyclone is over 29\ndegree Celsius water. Once the circulation separates from land,\nsome slight strengthening is then forecast. After that time, Vicente\nwill be approaching the much larger circulation of strengthening\nTropical Cyclone Willa, and the most likely scenario is that at\nleast by 96 hours, Vicente will become absorbed within an outer band\nof Willa. This is the same scenario which occurred with Hurricane\nJohn and Tropical Storm Ileana back in August this year.\n\nVicente is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 6 kt. The nose\nof a strong subtropical ridge is forecast to amplify and expand\nwestward. This flow pattern should force Vicente to move on a west\nto west-southwest track for about 36 hours. Then as the cyclone\nreaches the southwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern\nportion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the\nnorthwest until it becomes absorbed.  It is interesting to note that\nunanimously, the track guidance forces Vicente to acquire a\nwest-southwesterly component due to the expansion of the ridge,\nincreasing the confidence in the the track forecast during the next\n2 to 3 days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 14.3N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 14.2N  94.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 13.5N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 13.3N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 13.8N 100.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILLA\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Willa","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-10-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Willa Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n\nA GMI microwave pass over the depression at 0916 UTC revealed that a\ntight inner core has developed, with a cyan and pink ring noted in\nthe low-level 37-GHz channel.  Outer convective banding has also\nbeen increasing, and a consensus of the latest subjective and\nobjective satellite intensity estimates supports raising the maximum\nwinds to 35 kt and designating the cyclone as Tropical Storm Willa.\nOn an historical note, this is the first time that at least 21 named\nstorms have formed within the eastern Pacific basin since the 1992\nseason.\n\nThe microwave data suggest that Willa's center is a little farther\nsouth than previously estimated, and the initial motion is\ncalculated to be westward, or 270/8 kt.  The storm is already\nlocated near the western periphery of a mid-level ridge which\nextends across northern and central Mexico, and Willa is expected\nto slowly recurve around the ridge axis during the next 4 days.  By\nthe end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough located over\nthe western U.S. is likely to cause Willa to accelerate toward the\nnortheast in the direction of mainland Mexico.  All of the track\nmodels agree on this general scenario, but there are some\ndifferences on how wide a turn Willa makes while it recurves.\nThere are also some speed differences that appear to be related to\nhow strong Willa will be when the mid-latitude trough becomes the\nmain steering driver.  The NHC forecast is very close to the\nprevious forecast during the first 48 hours.  After that time, the\nforecast has been nudged eastward since the GFS and ECMWF models are\nboth near or east of the multi-model consensus aids.\n\nWith a low-level ring already observed in microwave imagery, and\nWilla located in an environment of low shear and over very warm\nocean water, the cyclone appears poised to go through a period of\nrapid intensification (RI).  Several of the various RI indices are\nover 50 percent, and thus the NHC forecast favors the high end of\nthe intensity guidance and explicitly shows rapid strengthening\nover the next 48 hours.  Willa is expected to be moving more slowly\nby days 3 and 4 (about 3 kt), and upwelling of colder water could\ninduce some weakening by that time.  An increase in shear is likely\nto cause more significant weakening by the end of the forecast\nperiod.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a bit higher than the\nprevious forecast to account for the possibility of rapid\nintensification, and it shifts Willa's expected peak intensity about\na day earlier.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 14.8N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 15.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 15.3N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 15.8N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 16.6N 108.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-10-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n \nThe cloud pattern associated with Vicente is quite peculiar. In\naddition on being unusually small, it has an intermittent eye\nfeature surrounded by moderate to shallow convection. A very useful\nASCAT pass a few hours ago showed that Vicente has a very tight\ncirculation with maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt, and the\ntropical-storm-force winds extend only 20 n mi from the center.\nOn this basis, and an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\nSAB, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt. Now\nthat the circulation is farther from land, the chances of some\nslight strengthening have increased in the next 24 to 36 hours\nbefore Vicente encounters the larger circulation of Willa. In fact,\nmost of the global models advertise that in about 3 days or so\nVicente will dissipate, and so does the official forecast.\n \nSatellite fixes indicate that Vicente is moving toward the west or\n265 degrees at 8 kt. The nose of a strong subtropical ridge is\nforecast to amplify and expand westward. This flow pattern should\nforce Vicente to move on a west or even west-southwest track for\nthe next 24 to 36 hours. Then as the cyclone reaches the\nsouthwestern end of the ridge and encounters the eastern\nportion of Willa's circulation, Vicente should turn toward the\nnorthwest and north. Vicente should become absorbed by the larger\nWilla and dissipation could occur earlier than indicated in the\nforecast at this time given the solution of the global models.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  20/2100Z 14.6N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 14.0N  95.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 13.7N  97.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 14.0N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Avila\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Willa","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-10-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Willa Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n400 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n\nWilla appears to be wrapping up quickly, and the low-level center\nis now embedded beneath a ragged central dense overcast.  ASCAT data\nfrom several hours ago indicated winds were as high as 40 kt, but\nmore recent satellite estimates support an intensity between 45-55\nkt, and the maximum winds are set at 50 kt for this advisory.\n\nWilla has turned west-northwestward and slowed down, and the\ninitial motion is estimated to be 295/5 kt.  The cyclone is\nforecast to recurve around the western edge of a mid-level ridge\nthat lies over Mexico during the next few days, and then accelerate\nnortheastward into mainland Mexico by days 4 and 5 ahead of a broad\nmid-latitude trough.  Compared to previous model runs, the new\ntrack guidance has sped up significantly and also now shows a\nsharper recurvature, both of which suggest that Willa's hazards\ncould reach the coast of Mexico sooner than originally thought.\nThe GFS and ECMWF remain the fastest of the models, and although\nthe updated NHC track forecast trends in their direction, it hangs\nback a bit to give some weight to the HWRF, HCCA, and Florida State\nSuperensemble.  Even with that consideration, the new forecast does\nbring Willa to the coast sooner than before.\n\nThe satellite signature suggests that the storm is organizing\nquickly and is probably in the beginning stages of rapid\nintensification (RI).  The RI indices are even higher this\nafternoon than they were this morning, and incredibly, the HWRF,\nSHIPS, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble all bring Willa near or\nat major hurricane intensity in 36 hours.  The NHC forecast follows\nthose models' lead and indicates significant strengthening over the\nnext couple of days.  A peak in intensity is likely to occur\nbetween 48-72 hours, followed by some weakening due to lower\noceanic heat content and increasing vertical shear.  Despite the\nexpected weakening, Willa is expected to reach the coast of\nwest-central mainland Mexico as a hurricane in about 4 days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2100Z 15.2N 105.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 15.5N 106.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 16.1N 106.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 16.8N 107.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 17.6N 107.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 19.1N 108.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  25/1800Z 24.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-10-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n\nVicente consists of a tight but mostly exposed low-level swirl\nproducing intermittent bursts of deep convection.  We have expected\nan imminent westward or west-southwestward turn for the past 24\nhours now, but it still hasn't happened, and the initial motion\nestimate is a little north of due west (280/6 kt). All of the\ngenerally best performing track models, except the UKMET, forecast\nthat a turn toward the west-southwest should occur at any time, and\neven that model forecasts that a turn toward the due west is\nimminent. The NHC forecast dutifully follows the model guidance, but\nis a little north of the model consensus for the first 24 hours,\nbased on recent trends. Beyond that time, a turn toward the\nwest-northwest or northwest is still anticipated, assuming Vicente\nis steered by the southerly flow on the outer fringes of the much\nlarger Willa to its west, and the NHC forecast closely follows the\nHCCA and TVCN consensus aids. A few members of the ECMWF and GFS\nensembles do not show the two cyclones interacting, resulting in a\nsignificantly different and much farther west track for Vicente.\nWhile this scenario does not seem likely at this point, it does\nillustrate that the uncertainty in the track forecast has increased\nsince earlier today.\n\nThe intensity of Vicente is still estimated at 45 kt, based on\nearlier ASCAT data and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. While the small size\nof Vicente could make it susceptible to short-term swings in\nintensity that are very difficult to predict, the intensity\nguidance generally forecasts little change in the maximum winds\nover the next day or two. Beyond 48 h, close proximity to land and\ninteraction with Willa is expected to cause Vicente to weaken and\neventually dissipate. No changes of note were made to the\nintensity forecast in this advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0300Z 14.8N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 14.4N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 14.3N  97.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 14.9N  99.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 16.0N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 18.0N 103.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Willa","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-10-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Willa Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n900 PM MDT Sat Oct 20 2018\n\nWilla has rapidly intensified since genesis occurred last night,\nand it is almost a hurricane.  Geostationary satellite and\nmicrowave images indicate that banding features have become well\nestablished in all quadrants and the inner core has continued to\norganize.  There is still no evidence of an eye feature,\nhowever.  A blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates\nsupports increasing the initial wind speed to 60 kt.\n\nThe latest satellite fixes indicate that Willa is now moving\nnorthwestward at about 5 kt.  The storm is expected to gradually\nturn to the right as it moves around the western periphery of a\nmid-level ridge.  In response, a northwestward motion should\ncontinue for another day or so, followed by a turn toward the north\non Monday.  After that time, a faster north-northeast to northeast\nmotion is expected when a shortwave trough approaches the system.\nThe latest model guidance, except for the UKMET, show Willa making\na sharper northward turn and at a faster pace.  The NHC track\nforecast has been adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement\nwith the latest consensus aids.  This forecast is again faster than\nthe previous one and shows Willa making landfall over west-central\nMexico in 72 to 96 hours.\n\nThe storm has taken advantage of near ideal environmental conditions\nof very low wind shear, high levels of moisture, and warm 29 deg C\nSSTs.  These conditions are expected to prevail for another couple\nof days, and that should allow Willa to continue to strengthen\nrapidly.  In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) indices\nshow about 90 percent chance of RI continuing during the next 24\nhours.  Based on this information and the latest model guidance, the\nNHC intensity forecast shows Willa becoming a major hurricane in a\nday or so.  Some weakening is likely before Willa reaches the coast\ndue to an increase in shear and a decrease in available moisture,\nbut Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the\ncoastline.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected due to\ninteraction with the rugged terrain.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0300Z 15.7N 106.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 16.1N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 16.9N 107.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 17.7N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 18.7N 107.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 20.7N 107.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nVicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone as evidenced by ASCAT passes\naround 03Z-04Z, which showed a very small but well-defined\ncirculation, with peak wind speed values of 38 kt. Those peak winds\nwere likely undersampled given the small radius of maximum winds of\nonly 10-15 nmi. Based on Vicente's small size and the ASCAT wind\ndata, the initial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory, which\nabove all of the other the intensity estimates, and lies closest to\nthe UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 43 kt. Little change in intensity is\nforecast due to moderate northerly shear expected to affect the\ncyclone throughout the forecast period, along with Vicente's\nproximity to land and occasional dry intrusions. Rapid weakening\nand dissipation are expected after landfall due to the\nmountainous terrain of Mexico.\n\nThe initial motion is now west-southwestward or 255/08 kt. Vicente\nis expected to move westward later today and then turn toward the\nwest-northwest  on Monday and northwest on Tuesday when the cyclone\nwill come under the influence of the Hurricane Willa's larger\ncirculation.  Landfall is expected to occur along the southwestern\ncoast of mainland Mexico on Wednesday. The latest NHC model guidance\nis tightly packed about the previous advisory track, and only minor\nforward speed changes were required, except for a more rightward\nshift in the track at 72 hours resulting in landfall.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0900Z 14.5N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 14.3N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 14.4N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 15.2N 100.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 16.6N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 19.2N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND SWRN MEXICO\n 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n300 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nWilla has continued to rapidly intensify based on a well-defined CDO\nwith an intermittent pinhole eye evident in high-resolution GOES-16\ninfrared (IR) satellite imagery. Upper-level outflow has become well\nestablished in all quadrants. The intensity is difficult to\nascertain since satellite intensity estimates vary widely based on\nthe scene type used and also the small size of the hurricane. TAFB\nand SAB both provided an estimate of T4.0/65 kt, whereas UW-CIMSS\nADT and SATCON were 67 kt and 56 kt, respectively. In contrast, NHC\nobjective T-numbers are T5.0/90 kt using an embedded center and as\nhigh as T6.0/115 kt using a pinhole eye. Given that the eye has not\nbeen maintained in IR imagery, the advisory intensity of 75 kt lies\nbetween the subjective TAFB/SAB estimate and lower NHC objective\nestimate.\n\nWilla is moving at 315/06 kt. There is no significant change to the\nprevious forecast track reasoning. Willa is forecast to continue\nmoving northwestward for the next 24 h or so, followed by a turn\ntoward the north on Monday, with a motion toward the northeast\nexpected on Tuesday as the hurricane gradually rounds the western\nperiphery of the deep-layer ridge. By late Tuesday, Willa is\nforecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough\nthat will be approaching Baja California, resulting in landfall\nalong the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday. The latest 00Z\nmodel guidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track,\nand only minor forward speed adjustments were required. A 96-h\nposition has been provided only for continuity purposes, and Willa\nwill likely have dissipated over the Mexican mountains by then.\n\nWilla's small inner-core wind field along with ideal environmental\nconditions consisting of low shear, high mid-level moisture, and\nwarm SSTs of 28 deg C should allow the hurricane to continue to\nrapidly intensify for the next 24-36 hours, followed by a leveling\noff in the intensity by early Tuesday due to expected cold upwelling\nbeneath the slow-moving hurricane.  In 60-72 hours, increasing\nsouthwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is\nexpected to induce steady weakening until landfall occurs. Rapid\ndissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will\noccur after landfall. The official intensity forecast is a tad\nabove the consensus models HCCA and FSSE, and is little below the\nrobust Navy COAMPS-TC model forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 16.8N 107.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 17.6N 107.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 18.7N 107.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 19.8N 107.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 22.3N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH...NEAR WNCTRL MEXICO\n 96H  25/0600Z 26.9N 101.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND NCNTRL MEXICO\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nVicente remains a tiny tropical cyclone, and its cloud pattern\nconsists of a small Central Dense Overcast with disorganized\nconvection over the southwestern portion of the circulation.  There\nis little evidence of banding features at this time.  The current\nintensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with subjective Dvorak\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB.  North-northeasterly vertical\nshear is likely to limit intensification during the next couple of\ndays.  Vicente should quickly dissipate when it interacts with the\nland mass of Mexico by mid-week.\n\nSatellite fixes and images from the Puerto Angel, Mexico radar\nindicate that the storm is still moving a little south of west,\nand the motion estimate continues to be 255/8 kt.  There has been\nlittle change in the track forecast or the reasoning behind it.\nVicente should gradually turn toward the west and northwest while\nmoving along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high\npressure area.  The official track forecast is similar to the\nprevious one and close to the multi-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z 14.4N  96.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 14.2N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 14.4N  99.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.4N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 16.9N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 19.7N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n900 AM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nFirst-light GOES-16 visible satellite imagery shows that Willa\ncontinues to become better organized, with a tightly coiled band\nof convection wrapping around the center.  There has also been\nevidence of a small eye in recent microwave and infrared satellite\npictures.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates\nrange from 77 kt to 90 kt, and the initial intensity has been\nincreased to 85 kt for this advisory.\n\nWilla is moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. The track guidance\ncontinues to indicate that Willa will move northwestward today,\nthen turn northward on Monday, and then head north-northeastward\non Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the\nGulf of Mexico and an approaching mid-level trough. The dynamical\nmodel guidance remains in good overall agreement on this scenario,\nbut there are differences in how quickly Willa will accelerate\nnorth-northeastward.  The UKMET and ECMWF are much slower than the\nremainder of the dynamical models, with the GFS and GFS ensemble\nmean the fastest.  The NHC track forecast brings the center of the\nWilla onshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72 h, and\nit lies closest to the HFIP corrected consensus, which is a little\nfaster than the other consensus aids.\n\nThe hurricane is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear\nand over warm waters of around 28 degrees Celsius during the next\nday or two.  These very favorable conditions are expected to allow\nsteady to rapid strengthening through Monday night, and the NHC\nforecast is near the upper end of the intensity guidance.  By 48\nhours, increasing southwesterly shear is forecast to initiate\nweakening, but Willa is likely to remain a very strong hurricane\nthrough landfall in southwestern Mexico.  After landfall, rapid\nweakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland\nMexico should occur.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Willa is forecast to be a hurricane when it reaches the coast of\nsouthwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday bringing a\nlife-threatening storm surge, dangerous winds, and life-threatening\nflash flooding, and hurricane and tropical storm watches are now\nin effect for a portion of the area.  Residents in the watch areas\nshould monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z 16.6N 106.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 17.2N 107.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 18.2N 107.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 19.3N 107.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 20.4N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 23.3N 105.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  25/1200Z 26.5N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nVicente's cloud pattern has become less organized today, with the\nlow-level center becoming exposed near the northeastern edge of a\nragged-looking area of deep convection.  Data from a recent\nscatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds have\ndecreased to near 35 kt.  North-northeasterly vertical wind shear\nshould prevent strengthening of the system and, in fact, the global\nmodels show the cyclone dissipating in a couple of days.  The\nofficial forecast shows, perhaps generously, Vicente weakening to a\ndepression in 1-2 days and is similar to the latest intensity model\nconsensus.  Obviously, the system could weaken sooner than shown\nhere.\n\nThe storm has been moving just slightly south of due west, or 260/9\nkt.  Vicente is expected to move around the southwestern and western\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico\nfor the next couple of days.  The official forecast is somewhat\nfaster than the previous one, but is very close to the dynamical\nmodel consensus, TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z 14.2N  97.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 14.2N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 15.2N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 16.7N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 18.0N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 20.5N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n300 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nWilla has continued to rapidly strengthen with the eye becoming\nvery distinct in both visible and infrared satellite imagery.\nThe surrounding convective tops warmed around mid-day but have\ncooled since that time and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates\nwere 102 and 90 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively at 18Z.  With\nthe continued increase in organization since that time, the initial\nintensity is set near the upper end of the estimates or 100 kt.\n\nWilla continues moving slowly north-northwestward or 330/5 kt.\nThere has been no change to the track forecast philosophy over the\npast few advisories.  The hurricane is expected to turn northward\ntonight or Monday around the western portion of a deep-layer ridge\nthat extends westward from the Gulf of Mexico over mainland Mexico.\nA mid-level trough that is forecast to approach the Baja California\npeninsula Monday night and Tuesday should cause Willa to turn north-\nnortheastward and recurve around the northwestern portion of the\naforementioned ridge.  There are still some differences in how\nquickly Willa will recurve, but there is little cross-track spread\nin the guidance.  This increases the overall confidence in the NHC\ntrack forecast, which calls for the hurricane to make landfall along\nthe southwestern coast of Mexico late Tuesday or early Wednesday.\n\nThe low shear and warm ocean environment ahead of Willa is expected\nto remain quite favorable for strengthening for at least another 12\nto 24 hours, and additional intensification is likely tonight and\nearly Monday.  The new NHC track intensity forecast is above all\nthe intensity guidance through 36 hours, and now calls for a peak\nintensity of 130 kt within that time period.  After that time,\neyewall replacement cycles could result in some fluctuations in\nintensity.  Increasing southwesterly shear on Tuesday could result\nin some weakening, but Willa is expected to approach the coast of\nMexico as a very dangerous hurricane.  After landfall, rapid\nweakening and dissipation over the mountainous terrain of mainland\nMexico should occur.  A 96-hour forecast point is shown for\ncontinuity but the system is likely to dissipate before that time.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the\ncoast of southwestern mainland Mexico by late Tuesday or Wednesday\nbringing a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force\nwinds, and life-threatening flash flooding.  A Hurricane Watch and\ntropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for a portion of\nthe area.  Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of\nthis system and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z 17.0N 107.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 17.8N 107.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 18.8N 107.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 19.8N 107.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 21.0N 107.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 24.8N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  25/1800Z 26.8N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nVicente's satellite presentation hasn't changed much, with the\nlow-level circulation located near the northeastern edge of a rather\nelongated area of deep convection. Satellite classifications remain\nunchanged, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt based on\ncontinuity with the earlier ASCAT pass. Northeasterly shear is\nexpected to continue affecting Vicente, and the global models show\nthe cyclone dissipating within the next 24 to 48 hours. The NHC\nforecast brings Vicente near the coast of southwestern Mexico as a\ndepression in 36 hours and inland as a remnant low by 48 hours, but\nit wouldn't be surprising if the small cyclone dissipated sooner.\nRegardless of the eventual details of Vicente's demise, the main\nhazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern and\nsouthwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash\nflooding.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains south of due west or 260/09.\nVicente should be steered around the southwestern and western edge\nof a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico through\ndissipation. The spread in the model trackers remains quite large,\nas they are having difficulty tracking the small cyclone. For this\ncycle, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted to the left of the\nprevious one through 12 to 24 hours due to the initial position and\nmotion. After that time, the NHC track generally follows a blend of\nthe previous official forecast and the fields from the latest global\nmodels.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z 13.9N  98.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 14.3N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.7N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 17.5N 103.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n900 PM MDT Sun Oct 21 2018\n\nWilla has continued to rapidly intensify this evening.  Satellite\nimages show a well-defined circular eye with a surrounding ring of\ncold cloud tops that are near -80 deg C over the southeastern\nquadrant.  The initial intensity is set to 125 kt, which is near the\nlatest Dvorak ADT estimates from CIMSS at the University of\nWisconsin.  Willa has strengthened at an incredible rate since\ngenesis, intensifying from a tropical depression to a category 4\nhurricane in less than 48 hours.\n\nWilla is gradually turning toward the right, with the initial motion\nestimated to be 340/6 kt.  The hurricane is expected to turn\nnorthward on Monday as it moves around the western periphery of a\nmid-level ridge to the east, followed by a faster northeastward\nmotion Monday night and Tuesday when a shortwave trough approaches\nthe system.  The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small\nchanges were made to the previous NHC track forecast.  On the\nforecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las Islas Marias on\nTuesday and then move inland over southwestern and west-central\nMexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.\n\nThe hurricane has certainty taken advantage of the near ideal\nenvironmental conditions and since these conditions will persist a\nlittle longer, some additional strengthening is shown in the short\nterm.  However, some fluctuations in intensity could occur due to\neyewall replacement cycles.  The models then show a gradual increase\nin shear and a decrease in available moisture around 24 hours, and\nthese factors should cause a slow weakening trend. Regardless,\nWilla is forecast to remain a dangerous hurricane, bringing multiple\nlife-threatening hazards to the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is\nforecast after the system moves inland and interacts with the\nmountainous terrain.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high\nend of the model guidance through dissipation.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the\nIslas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or\nWednesday bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash flooding\nalong with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane Warning is\nin effect for these areas, and residents should rush preparations to\ncompletion to protect life and property and follow any advice given\nby local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z 17.7N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 18.6N 107.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 19.7N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 20.7N 107.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 22.1N 106.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 26.2N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nVicente's cloud pattern has become better organized during the past\nseveral hours.  A burst of deep convection has developed near the\nsurface center, and a developing curved band with associated cold\ncloud tops of -80C is wrapping around nearly 70 percent of the\ncyclone's circulation.  A SATCON analysis, subjective and objective\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier 0325\nUTC ISRO ScatSAT-1 overpass support an initial intensity increase to\n40 kt for this advisory.\n\nDespite this temporary strengthening interlude, modest northeasterly\nshear as indicated by the statistical intensity aids and the\nUW-CIMSS shear product should induce weakening soon.  In fact, most\nof the large-scale models agree with dissipation in 36 hours, or\nshow the cyclone reaching the Mexico coastline around the 48-hour\nperiod as a depression.  Although the majority of the models support\ndissipation over water, the NHC forecast will reflect landfall as a\ntropical depression for continuity purposes. Regardless of the\nforecast intensity scenarios, the primary hazard will be heavy\nrainfall across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico, which\ncould cause life-threatening flash flooding.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 275/9 kt, within\nsoutheast to easterly steering flow produced by a mid-tropospheric\nridge extending westward over southern Mexico from the central Gulf\nof Mexico.  Vicente is expected to round the southwestern to western\nperiphery of the aforementioned ridge during the next 36 hours, or\nprior to dissipation.  The track forecast is a little slower than\nthe previous advisory, and is based on a blend of the Florida State\nSuperensemble and the TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z 14.1N  99.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 14.8N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 16.1N 102.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 17.7N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  24/0600Z 19.5N 104.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n300 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nWilla is an impressive hurricane with rapid to explosive deepening\nhaving occurred over the past 48 hours, and yielding a 105-kt\nintensity increase during that time. Satellite intensity estimates\nrange from subjective Dvorak T-numbers of T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and\nSAB to objective T-numbers of T7.0/140 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC.\nThe most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON value around 0437Z was 127 kt. Based\non these data and the slightly more ragged appearance of the CDO\nover the past couple of hours, the intensity is raised to 135 kt,\nwhich is just below category 5 strength.\n\nWilla is now moving northward and the initial motion estimate is\n360/06 kt. Willa is forecast to continue moving northward today as\nthe hurricane rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge\nlocated over central Mexico and which extends westward along 20N\nlatitude to near the Pacific coast of Mexico. On Tuesday, a turn\ntoward the north-northeast and northeast at a slightly faster\nforward speed is expected as the hurricane gets caught up in\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough.\nThe latest 00Z NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this\ngeneral track scenario, but with noticeable differences in the\nforward speed. Internal statistical analyses show that the ECMWF\nand UKMET models have had a slow westward bias over the past 48\nhours, which has significantly affected the consensus models. As a\nresult, the new NHC forecast is a little to the right of and\nslightly faster the previous advisory track and the consensus\nmodels, and lies close to GFS model which has verified the best\nthus far. On the forecast track, Willa is expected to move over Las\nIslas Marias on Tuesday and then move inland over southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday. A 72-hour\nposition has been provided only for continuity purposes beyond the\n48-hour period, and Willa will likely have dissipated by then.\n\nWater temperatures ahead of the powerful hurricane are forecast to\nincrease from 28 deg C to near 29.5 deg C, and the depth of the warm\nwater is also expected to increase, which would tend to offset any\ncold upwelling beneath Willa. The deep-layer shear is forecast to\nincrease to a little more than 10 kt during the next 36 hours, and\nremain at that level during the duration of that time period. These\nconditions would favor at least slight strengthening before the\ninternal dynamics of the hurricane in the form of an eyewall\nreplacement cycle (ERC) induces some weakening. With the eye\ndiameter already at 10-15 nmi, an ERC could begin at any time\nduring the next 12 hours. Shortly after 36 hours, the shear is\nexpected to increase sharply to more than 20 kt, which will cause\nmore significant weakening. However, Willa is still expected to be\nnear major hurricane strength when it makes landfall along the\nwest-central coast of Mexico. After landfall, the mountainous\nterrain along with strong southwesterly wind shear of more than 30\nkt will cause rapid weakening and dissipation of the cyclone inland\nover north-central Mexico.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Willa is forecast to be a dangerous hurricane when it reaches the\nIslas Marias and the coast of southwestern Mexico by late Tuesday or\nWednesday morning, bringing a life-threatening storm surge and flash\nflooding along with damaging hurricane-force winds. A Hurricane\nWarning is in effect for these areas, and residents should rush\npreparations to completion to protect life and property and follow\nany advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z 18.2N 107.1W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 19.2N 107.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 20.4N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 21.8N 106.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  24/0600Z 23.8N 104.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND WNCTRL MEXICO\n 72H  25/0600Z 27.0N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and microwave data this morning are indicating\nthat the early morning re-strengthening of Vicente has ended.  The\nsystem appears elongated, with the low-level center becoming\nincreasingly difficult to locate.  Radar imagery from Acapulco,\nMexico, does not suggest a well-organized tropical cyclone at this\ntime.  The averages of the subjective Dvorak analyses from SAB and\nTAFB support an initial intensity of 40 kt, which may be a little\ngenerous.\n\nModerate northeasterly shear is forecast to continue over the\ncyclone the next couple of days which should support ongoing\nsteady weakening. The GFS, HWRF, and HMON models show the cyclone\ndissipating tonight, with some of the other global model guidance\nshowing little change in intensity until landfall.  Given the\ncurrent disorganized appearance, a weakening trend appears to be\nthe most realistic scenario, with Vicente forecast to weaken to a\ntropical depression before it makes landfall over southwestern\nMexico in about 36 hours. Regardless of the forecast intensity, the\nprimary hazard will be heavy rainfall across portions of southern\nand southwestern Mexico, which could cause life-threatening flash\nflooding.\n\nVicente appears to have begun a turn to the west-northwest, and\nthe initial motion is now estimated to be 290/10 kt as the system\nbegins to round the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge\nover Mexico.  As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of the\nridge later today and Tuesday, a turn to the northwest and then\nnorth-northwest is expected.  The latest NHC forecast track is\nsimilar, and just slightly to the right of the previous one,\nand is near the tightly clustered model guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 17.4N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 18.9N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 48H  24/1200Z 20.3N 104.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number  10...corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n900 AM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nCorrected wording in Key Messages number 2\n\nWilla is an extremely impressive hurricane in infrared and visible\nsatellite imagery this morning.  The small, but very distinct, eye\nis embedded within a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud\ntops of -70 to -80 degrees Celsius.  A very recent SSMIS microwave\noverpass is the first to indicate that an outer eyewall has formed,\nsuggesting that an eyewall replacement cycle has started.  The\nlatest objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS are T7.0/140 kt, and\nsubjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 140 kt\nand 127 kt, respectively.  Based on these data the initial intensity\nhas been increased to 140 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft is currently en route to Wilma and should provide a better\nassessment of the storm's intensity by early this afternoon.\n\nWilla is moving northward 6 kt.  The hurricane is forecast to\ncontinue to move northward today around the western flank of a\ndeep-layer ridge that is located over the Gulf of Mexico.\nA short wave trough that is seen in water vapor imagery near 130W\nlongitude is forecast to deepen as it moves eastward toward Baja\nCalifornia.  This should cause Willa to turn north-northeastward\ntonight, then accelerate northeastward on Tuesday, bringing the\ncenter of the hurricane onshore along the west-central coast of\nMexico Tuesday afternoon or evening.  As mentioned in the previous\nadvisory, the track guidance is good agreement on the overall\nscenario but there are still some notable differences in the\npredicted forward speed of the hurricane.  The NHC track forecast\nleans toward the faster solutions of the GFS and GFS ensemble\nmean, which have been handling Willa's track the best so far.\n\nThe environment of low wind shear and water temperatures of 28\nto 29.5 degrees Celsius suggest some additional strengthening is\npossible but with the evidence that an eyewall replacement has\nbegun, some fluctuations intensity are possible during the next 12\nto 24 hours.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear is\nforecast to induce weakening, but Willa is likely to remain an\nextremely dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the\nwest-central coast of Mexico.  After landfall, shear and the\nmountainous terrain of Mexico will cause rapid weakening and\ndissipation of the cyclone.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the\ncoasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern\nMexico near the path of Willa.  Residents should rush preparations\nto completion to protect life and property and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area\nalong coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-\nthreatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of\nWilla.  Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the\nmountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 19.1N 107.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 20.1N 107.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 21.4N 106.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 23.1N 105.6W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  24/1200Z 25.4N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Vicente continues to lose\norganization.  Deep convection has been sporadic and is generally\nlimited to the east and south of the storm's center.  Unfortunately,\nthe most recent ASCAT pass missed the center of the system, so we\nare unable to verify if Vicente's circulation is still closed.  Due\nto Vicente's deteriorating satellite presentation, the initial\nintensity has been lowered to 35 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak\nCurrent Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  This intensity\nestimate may be generous, however.\n\nAlthough sea-surface temperatures near Vicente are quite warm (29\ndegrees C), the storm continues to be negatively affected by\nnortheasterly vertical wind shear.  Moreover, the cyclone's small\nsize has likely made it more susceptible to shear.  Although the\nshear is forecast to weaken slightly over the the next day or so,\nthe influence of the large circulation of Hurricane Willa and the\ninteraction with land is likely to cause the storm to dissipate in\n24-36 hours, or less. The majority of the dynamical guidance models\ndissipate Vicente by tomorrow afternoon and the official forecast\ncalls for dissipation by 36 h.  It should be noted that, given the\ncurrent tenuous state of Vicente, the system could dissipate at any\ntime.\n\nVicente's current motion is west-northwestward, or 300/10 kt.  The\nsystem is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest\nwhile moving between the mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico\nand the southeastern portion of the circulation of Willa.  The\nofficial track forecast is a little faster than the previous one\nand roughly in the middle of the model guidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 15.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 16.8N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 19.0N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n300 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nWilla continues to exhibit an impressive presentation in satellite\nimagery, however the small eye has become cloud filled this\nafternoon and and earlier microwave data indicated that an\neyewall replacement cycle had begun.  Subjective and objective\ndata T-numbers are a little lower than this morning, and the\ninitial intensity has been set at 135 kt for this advisory.  The\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that was en route to\nWilla around midday was struck by lightning in one of the outer rain\nbands and had to return to base due to safety issues regarding\nsome of the onboard equipment.\n\nThe hurricane has been moving due northward today at about 7 kt.\nThe track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous\nadvisory as Willa is currently moving around the western portion of\na deep-layer ridge.  An approaching shortwave trough should turn\nWilla north-northeastward, then northward toward the west-central\ncoast of Mexico on Tuesday, and the hurricane is forecast to make\nlandfall within the hurricane warning area between San Blas and\nMazatlan Tuesday afternoon or evening.  There are still some model\ndifferences regarding the timing of landfall, and the NHC track\nforecast is near the various consensus aids to account for these\nvariations in forward speed.\n\nThe rapid intensification phase that Willa has gone through since\nits formation on Saturday appears to have ended now that an eyewall\nreplacement has begun.  Although the hurricane is forecast to remain\nin a low to moderate wind shear environment and over warm SSTs\nthrough tonight, some weakening is likely due to internal dynamics\nof the eyewall replacement.  Increasing southwesterly shear on\nTuesday is likely to cause some additional weakening, and the NHC\nintensity forecast has been adjusted accordingly, however, Willa is\nforecast to remain a dangerous major hurricane through landfall.\nRapid weakening will occur Tuesday night as Willa moves over the\nmountainous terrain of Mexico, and the cyclone is expected to\ndissipate on Wednesday.  Moisture from the remnants of Willa are\nforecast to spread northeastward over northern Mexico and\nportions of Texas where a swath of heavy rainfall is expected\nmidweek.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the\ncoasts of the Isla Marias, and west-central and southwestern\nMexico near the path of Willa.  Residents should rush preparations\nto completion to protect life and property and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n2. Everyone in Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area\nalong the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-\nthreatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of\nWilla.  Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the\nmountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 19.7N 107.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 20.7N 107.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 23.9N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  24/1800Z 26.2N 101.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vicente","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Vicente Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nAlthough conventional satellite imagery is unimpressive tonight, a\npair of microwave passes indicate there is probably still a\nlow-level circulation remaining with Vicente.  The center is located\nbetween the main convective band to the south, and sporadic cells\nnorth of the center.  All of the intensity estimates that I have\nsuggest the intensity is no lower than 35 kt, so the initial wind\nspeed will stay 35 kt.  Continued northeasterly shear will very\nlikely cause Vicente to weaken soon, and this is the solution\npresented by most of the guidance.  The new NHC track forecast shows\nVicente coming ashore as a tropical depression tomorrow over Mexico,\nmost similar to the GFS model.\n\nVicente is moving northwestward, or 320/11 kt.  The system should\nmove a little faster and to the right between the mid-level ridge\nover the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern portion of the\ncirculation of Willa.  The official track forecast is a bit east of\nthe previous one, in line with the latest guidance.  The 24-hour\nposition is simply a placeholder to get Vicente inland because the\ncyclone will probably dissipate not long after it reaches land due\nto the high terrain.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 16.4N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 17.9N 103.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018\n\nWilla's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an\nSSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the\nnorthern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over\nthe past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt\nbased on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from\nTAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and\nthat moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is\nexpected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast\nthrough landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24\nhours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the\nforecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a\ndangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-\nthreatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas\nMarias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on\nTuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with\ndissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.\nMoisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread\nnortheastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a\nswath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to\ngradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge\ncentered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the\nnorthwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly\nleft of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and\nlies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA\nconsensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed\nof the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast\nremains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the\ncoasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa\nand Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the\npath of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to\nprotect life and property and follow any advice given by local\nofficials.\n\n2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning\narea along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-\nthreatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of\nWilla. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the\nmountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Vicente","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018\n\nCells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near\nVicente's center, but overall the convective organization has\ncontinued to deteriorate.  Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed\nmaximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of\nthe small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt.\n\nWindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a\nlittle to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial\nmotion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt.  This motion\nshould continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's\ncirculation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico,\nand the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the\nMexican state of Michoacan later today.  Once inland, the tiny\ncirculation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous\nterrain.  A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for\ncontinuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood\nVicente will have dissipated by that time.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n300 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018\n\nWilla's overall satellite presentation has continued to slowly\ndegrade since the previous advisory, with the exception of a few\nbrief attempts at redevelopment of an inner-core ring of deep\nconvection. However, dry intrusions from the moat region between the\nlarger outer eyewall and the smaller inner core have thus far\nprevented the reformation of an inner eyewall. Satellite intensity\nestimates have been steadily decreasing, and the advisory intensity\nis set at 115 kt, based on a average of the subjective T- and\nCI-numbers from TAFB and a UW-CIMSS ADT objective estimate of\nT6.0/115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft is\nscheduled to reconnoiter Hurricane Willa later this morning,\nproviding more detailed intensity information.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains northward, but at a slower\nforward speed, or 360/04 kt. There are no significant changes to the\nprevious track forecast or reasoning. Willa is expected to move\nslowly northward this morning around the western periphery of a\ndeep-layer ridge located over central Mexico, and then recurve\ntoward the north-northeast and northeast at a faster forward speed\nby this afternoon ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough, with\nthat motion continuing into this evening and Wednesday. The new NHC\ntrack forecast is near the eastern edge of the tightly packed\nguidance envelope, near the FSSE and GFS model tracks.\n\nThere has been no microwave imagery since around 0100Z to provide\ninformation on the eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). However,\nconventional infrared satellite imagery suggests that the ERC is\nstill ongoing based on the appearance of a partial moat or clear\nregion in the northern semicircle of the inner core. Willa is\ncurrently moving over warmer and deeper water as indicated by\nupper-ocean heat content (UOHC) values greater than 50 units. This\nfavorable ocean condition is expected to continue along the forecast\ntrack for another 12 hours or so, which could help to offset the\nweakening rate due to the gradual increase in the southwesterly wind\nshear. By 18 h, or just before landfall, the shear is forecast to\nincrease to more than 20 kt and the warm water beneath the hurricane\nis expected to become more shallow, a combination that could lead to\nsignificant upwelling and weakening. However, the official intensity\nforecast follows the consensus of the various intensity models,\nkeeping Willa's intensity near 100 kt at landfall, which is similar\nto the FSSE and HCCA corrected-consensus models. Despite the\nforecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a\ndangerous major hurricane through landfall, bringing\nlife-threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las\nIslas Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico\nlater today. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with\ndissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.\nHowever, deep moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to\nspread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas\nwhere a swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected today along the coasts\nof the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and\nNayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the\npath of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to\nprotect life and property and follow any advice given by local\nofficials.\n\n2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning\narea along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-\nthreatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of\nWilla. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the\nmountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 20.8N 107.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Vicente","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP232018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Vicente Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP232018\n1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Vicente crossed the coast of the\nMexican state of Michoacan a little while ago, and is now inland.\nThe system, if in fact it still has a center, lacks sufficient\norganized deep convection to be considered a tropical cyclone.\nTherefore Vicente has become a post-tropical remnant low, and\nthis is the last advisory on this system.\n\nThe motion is around 330/10 kt.  A 12-hour forecast point is shown\nfor continuity, but the cyclone will probably have dissipated by\nthat time.  Vicente's remnants, along with southwesterly flow\naround the larger circulation of Hurricane Willa, will probably\ncontinue to produce locally heavy rains over portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico into Wednesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 18.4N 102.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 12H  24/0000Z 19.5N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n900 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018\n\nWilla's overall satellite presentation has not changed much during\nthe past few hours, with some evidence of a small inner core and\nand an outer eyewall.  Recent microwave data and reports from an\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft also indicate that\nconcentric eyewalls are present.  The reconnaissance aircraft just\ncompleted its first pass into the center and found peak 700-mb\nflight-level winds of 107 kt, and SFMR winds of 99 kt. The plane\nreported a minimum pressure of 966 mb, which was higher than\npreviously estimated.  Based on the preliminary aircraft data and a\nblend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from the various agencies, the\ninitial intensity is set at 110 kt.  The plane should provide a\nmore accurate assessment of Willa's intensity as it continues its\nmission during the new few hours.\n\nWilla is moving a little east of due north or 010/5 kt.  A\nshortwave trough approaching the west coast of the Baja California\npeninsula is expected to cause Willa to turn north-northeastward\nthis morning, and the hurricane should accelerate northeastward by\ntonight.  The core of Willa will move over the Isla Marias within\nthe next few hours, and make landfall along the west-central coast\nof Mexico this evening. The track guidance is in good agreement,\nand the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous\nadvisory.\n\nAlthough Willa is moving over an area of deep warm water, increasing\nsouthwesterly shear is likely to cause gradual weakening as the\nhurricane approaches the coast.  Despite the forecast decrease in\nthe peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane\nthrough landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge, wind, and\nrainfall hazards to Las Islas Marias and portions of west-central\nand southwestern Mexico.  After landfall, Willa will rapidly weaken\nover the mountains of mainland Mexico, and dissipation is expected\non Wednesday.  Moisture from the remnants of this system is forecast\nto spread northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas\nand the northern Gulf Coast where a swath of heavy rainfall is\nexpected.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along the coasts\nof the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and\nNayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the\npath of Willa.\n\n2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected\nover the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning area along\nthe coast of west- central Mexico.  Hurricane-force winds will also\nextend inland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico\nas Willa moves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 21.4N 106.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 22.7N 105.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 24.9N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  25/0000Z 26.7N  99.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n300 PM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018\n\nWilla's earlier eyewall replacement cycle appears to have finally\nended with the erosion of the small inner eye and the outer eye\nbecoming better defined in microwave data.  The eye has also warmed\nand become more evident in infrared and visible satellite imagery\nthis afternoon.  The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that\nflew into Willa earlier today measured a peak 700-mb flight-level\nwind of 109 kt in the southeast quadrant and SFMR winds of around\n100 kt.   Since the aircraft was only able to perform a single pass\nthrough each quadrant, there is likely some undersampling so the\ninitial wind speed is set at 105 kt.\n\nSatellite and the earlier aircraft fixes show that Willa is moving\na little faster toward the north-northeast, or around 030/9 kt.  The\nhurricane is expected to accelerate northeastward ahead of a\nshortwave trough that is passing near the Baja California peninsula.\nThe dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in showing that\nthe center of Willa will reach the coast of west-central Mexico very\nsoon, and then track inland over central Mexico tonight and\nWednesday.  The track guidance envelope has not changed much this\ncycle, and no significant changes were needed to the previous\nofficial track.\n\nAlthough the satellite presentation of Willa has improved somewhat\nthis afternoon, little change in strength is expected before the\nhurricane reaches the coast of Mexico.  Increasing southwesterly\nshear and the mountainous terrain of mainland Mexico will cause\nWilla to rapidly weaken after it moves inland tonight and\nWednesday.  A 24-h forecast point is provided for continuity, but it\nis unlikely that the low-level circulation will survive its passage\nover the mountainous terrain for that long of a time period.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along the coasts\nof the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa and\nNayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the\npath of Willa.\n\n2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds will reach\nthe coast of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area\nwithin the next few hours.  Hurricane-force winds will also extend\ninland across the mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa\nmoves inland.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 22.2N 106.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 23.7N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  24/1800Z 25.7N 101.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Willa","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Willa Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that at 0100 UTC, the eye of Willa crossed\nthe coast of Mexico near Isla del Bosque, Sinaloa about 50 miles\n(80 km) southeast of Mazatlan.  Willa made landfall as a Category 3\nhurricane with estimated sustained winds of 105 kt.  The hurricane\nis already inland and still has an eye feature surrounded by a ring\nof very deep convection. However, the eye is beginning to gradually\nfade on satellite. The winds are probably already lower, and the\ninitial intensity is set at 100 kt.  Willa is forecast to move\nfarther inland over the high mountains of western Mexico resulting\nin rapid weakening. It is anticipated that by tomorrow, the cyclone\nwill no longer have a low-level circulation and dissipate.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that the eye has been moving toward the\nnortheast a little faster, about 15 kt.  The hurricane is well\nembedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow pattern\nshould steer the cyclone on this general track with an increase in\nforward speed until dissipation over western Mexico tomorrow.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along the coasts\nof southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and\nsouthwestern Mexico near the path of Willa.\n\n2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds should\ncontinue within the hurricane warning area during the next several\nhours and continue to spread inland across the mountainous areas of\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 23.2N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  24/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Willa","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Willa Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018\n\nSatellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is\nlocated well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state\nof Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude\ntrough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations\nto the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation\nshearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking\nhigh terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast\nposition has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects\nwhere the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the\ncyclone will likely have dissipated by then.\n\nAlthough Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds\natop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up\nto 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this\nadvisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will\nstill be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms\noccurring to the east and south of the center.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1.  Storm surge will subside this morning  along the coasts of\nsouthern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and\nsouthwestern Mexico.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening\nflash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and\nwest-central Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Willa","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP242018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Willa Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP242018\n1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018\n\nSatellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa's\nsurface circulation has dissipated over northeastern Mexico, so\nthis is the final advisory.\n\nIt should be noted that a non-tropical cyclone that is forecast to\nmove from the Gulf of Mexico to the northeastern United States over\nthe next few days is a separate system, and not directly associated\nwith Willa's remnants.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 25.5N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS OF WILLA\n 12H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-10-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 PM AST Fri Oct 26 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate the circulation\nof the broad low pressure area over the central Atlantic has become\nbetter defined, with a low-level center developing to the south of\na convective burst.  The scatterometer data indicate 35-40 kt winds\nabout 70-90 n mi from the center, and satellite imagery shows that\nthe cyclone is entangled with a developing upper-level low.  Based\non these factors, advisories are being initiated on the latest in\nthis year's series of subtropical storms, Oscar.\n\nDue to the recent development of the center, the initial motion is\nan uncertain 335/8.  The track guidance is in excellent agreement\nthat Oscar should should turn sharply westward and west-\nsouthwestward during the next 24 h as it pivots around the north\nside of the upper-level low, with this general motion continuing\nthrough about 48 h.  After that, the cyclone should turn more\nwestward at a slower forward speed as it approaches a weakness in\nthe subtropical ridge.  A northeastward motion appears likely from\n72-120 h due to a mid-latitude trough approaching Oscar from the\nwest.  However, there are significant differences in the forward\nspeed between the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that make this part\nof the forecast low confidence.  Overall, the forecast track is\nclose to the TVCN consensus model, and it splits the difference\nbetween the divergent global models late in the forecast period.\n\nGradual strengthening is forecast as Oscar remains in the deep-layer\ncyclonic flow of the upper-level low during the first 36-48 h.\nAfter that time, the global models suggests the system will have a\nchance to develop a tropical cyclone outflow pattern, and based on\nthis the forecast calls for Oscar to become a tropical cyclone near\nthe 48 h point.  Interaction with the aforementioned mid-latitude\ntrough may allow some additional intensification before Oscar\nencounters stronger shear near the 120 h point.  The FV3 model shows\na much weaker Oscar than the other dynamical models, and it is\npossible that dry air entrainment may hamper development through\nthe forecast period.  Thus, the intensity forecast is below the\nintensity consensus and on the weaker side of the intensity\nguidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 26.7N  45.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 27.2N  47.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 26.6N  50.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 25.6N  53.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 25.3N  55.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 72H  30/0000Z 26.5N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  31/0000Z 30.0N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 34.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018\n\nOscar's convective pattern has not changed much since the previous\nadvisory.  The surface center is displaced just to the southeast of\na burst of deep convection, and other convective elements extend\nalong a broken band over the eastern part of the circulation.\nAlthough satellite classifications have not increased, a drifting\nbuoy (47546) near Oscar's center recently reported a pressure of\n998.8 mb, implying a significant drop in the cyclone's central\npressure from the previous estimate.  Based on pressure-wind\nrelationships, this low pressure would equate to maximum winds\naround 45 kt, and that is set as the initial intensity for this\nadvisory.\n\nOscar is careening around the northern side of a mid- to\nupper-level low, and its initial motion is now west-northwestward,\nor 300/10 kt.  As the circulation becomes more vertically aligned\nin the coming days, the cyclone is forecast to be pushed\nwestward to west-southwestward by the flow on the back side of a\ntrough that is dropping southward over the eastern Atlantic.  After\n48 hours, Oscar is expected to recurve sharply and accelerate toward\nthe north Atlantic ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.\nThe global models have come into much better agreement on Oscar's\neventual recurvature and acceleration, and confidence in the NHC\ntrack forecast has increased.  In fact, the 00Z guidance suite\nrequired a significant increase in Oscar's forecast forward speed\non days 4 and 5, and the new NHC track forecast is much faster than\nthe previous one at the end of the forecast period, jumping\nnorthward by about 10 degrees of latitude.  This new forecast is\nclose to the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA model on day 5,\nbut it's still not as fast as the 00Z GFS and ECMWF guidance.\n\nGradually decreasing shear and warmer waters ahead of Oscar should\nallow for a steady increase in intensity during the next few days,\nand the cyclone is also expected to take on a more tropical\nconvective pattern in about 36 hours.  The intensity models are\nshowing a little more intensification than before, and the new NHC\nintensity forecast has been nudged upward, showing Oscar becoming a\nhurricane in 3-4 days.  Still, this forecast lies near the lower\nbound of the intensity guidance, and additional upward adjustments\nmay be required in future advisories.  Now that most of the models\nare showing more acceleration of Oscar toward the north Atlantic\nlater in the forecast period, there is also more definitive\nconsensus that Oscar will become an extratropical low by day 5, and\nthat is now indicated in the official forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 27.3N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 27.1N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 26.2N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 25.7N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 48H  29/0600Z 25.9N  56.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 28.4N  57.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  31/0600Z 35.0N  52.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  01/0600Z 45.0N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 AM AST Sat Oct 27 2018\n\nOscar's organization has improved this morning. Although the\nsubtropical storm is still entangled with an upper-level low,\nconvection has increased near the center of the cyclone since last\nnight. The most recent Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate\nfrom TAFB has increased accordingly to 45-50 kt. Furthermore,\nCanadian drifting buoy 47546 recently reported a minimum pressure of\njust below 996 mb to the east of Oscar's center, suggesting the\ncentral pressure of the cyclone has decreased since the last\nadvisory. The initial intensity is therefore increased to 50 kt for\nthis advisory.\n\nLittle change has been made to the intensity forecast. The GFS and\nmany of its associated models (HWRF, DSHP, LGEM) have changed\nabruptly and forecast far less intensification than they did just 6\nhours ago. However, the CTCI, HMON, and ECMWF-based statistical\nguidance still show Oscar reaching hurricane strength within a few\ndays. Rather than chase a possible short-term trend in the intensity\nguidance, the official intensity forecast will stay the course for\nnow and is a little above the intensity consensus, bringing Oscar to\nhurricane strength in around 48 h. After that time, some slight\nadditional intensification is possible, but Oscar is ultimately\nexpected to undergo extratropical transition by the end of the\nforecast period, which should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken.\n\nOscar has turned toward the west and the initial motion estimate is\nnow 270/11 kt. A west-southwestward motion is anticipated later\ntoday as Oscar moves around the back side of an mid- to upper-level\ntrough over the central Atlantic, followed by a turn toward the west\non the south side of a subtropical ridge to the north. As long as\nOscar intensifies as forecast, it should turn sharply northeastward\nearly next week ahead of a mid-latitude trough advancing across the\nwestern and central Atlantic, and then accelerate in that direction\nwhile undergoing extratropical transition. The GFS is an outlier,\nshowing a much weaker and vertically shallow cyclone that does not\nfully recurve, but all of the other global models are in generally\ngood agreement with the scenario listed above. Despite the\ninconsistency of the GFS, the model consensus has not changed\nsignificantly since the last advisory, so only minor adjustments\nwere made to the NHC track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 27.3N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 26.9N  50.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 26.2N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 36H  29/0000Z 25.9N  56.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 26.5N  57.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 30.2N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  31/1200Z 37.0N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  01/1200Z 47.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018\n\nOscar is still located beneath an upper-level low, however it its\nconvective structure is now more reminiscent of a tropical cyclone.\nDeep convection is primarily occuring in a small burst just south\nof the center of Oscar, however this convective activity appears to\nbe displaced by light northerly shear associated with the upper-low.\nEarlier AMSU sounding data indicated that the cyclone has developed\na weak but vertically deep warm core which also indicates that Oscar\nis nearly a tropical cyclone, if it isn't one already. Oscar is\nmoving quickly westward away from the upper-low, and will likely\nbecome a tropical storm later tonight if its current structural\ntrends continue.\n\nThe initial intensity is held at 50 kt, based primarily on the\nlatest Hebert-Poteat subtropical intensity estimate from TAFB. The\nintensity guidance has bounced back, and the most of the intensity\nguidance is higher than it was six hours ago. While little change\nwas made to the NHC intensity forecast, it now lies very near the\nintensity consensus at all forecast hours. Gradual intensification\nis still expected and Oscar is forecast to approach hurricane\nstrength by Monday. Slight additional intensification is possible\nthrough the middle of next week, until extratropical transition\noccurs by 120 h.\n\nOscar moved very quickly westward this afternoon, but a more\nrepresentative motion estimate is 265/15 kt. The latest runs of the\ntypically reliable global models are in better agreement than they\nwere this morning. Oscar is forecast to move west-southwestward or\nwestward for the next day or two on the south side of a mid-level\nridge to the north. The cyclone is then expected to recurve and\naccelerate northeastward ahead of a substantial mid-latitude trough\nmoving across the western and central Atlantic by the middle of next\nweek. The official track forecast has been adjusted westward to\nbring it closer to the latest track consensus, especially for the\nfirst 72 h of the forecast. By day 5, the official forecast is quite\nsimilar to the previous advisory, but with a slightly slower forward\nspeed for Oscar.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 26.9N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 26.1N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  28/1800Z 25.7N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 25.6N  57.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 26.4N  59.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 30.6N  57.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  31/1800Z 38.5N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  01/1800Z 46.5N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 PM AST Sat Oct 27 2018\n\nSatellite imagery shows that convection associated with Oscar has\nbecome better organized, with increased banding around the low-\nlevel center.  In addition, recent scatterometer data indicate that\nthe system now has a relatively small wind field with a radius of\nmaximum winds of about 25 n mi.  Although the cyclone is still\ntangled up with the upper-level low to the point where it has not\nyet developed the anticyclonic outflow of a tropical cyclone, the\nconvection and the wind field now justify calling the system a\ntropical storm.  The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt\nbased on the scatterometer data, and it is possible this is a little\nconservative.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 240/17, as the\nshort-term motion has been more toward the southwest or south.  For\nthe next several hours, Oscar should continue to pivot around the\nupper-level low to its east.   Thereafter, it should turn more\nwestward with a decrease in forward speed on the south side of a\nlarge ridge over the North Atlantic.  After about 36 h, a large\ndeep-layer trough moving eastward across the western Atlantic\nshould cause Oscar to turn northwestward and northward, followed by\nrecurvature into the westerlies and acceleration.  The track\nguidance is generally in good agreement with this scenario,\nalthough by 120 h there is some spread in both the direction and\nforward speed after recurvature.  The new forecast track is near\nthe various consensus models, and the early part of it is shifted a\nlittle to the south of the previous forecast due to the current\nlocation and motion.\n\nThe global models suggest that the core of Oscar should mostly avoid\nnearby strong upper-level winds through 24-36 h, and then encounter\nstrong upper-level divergence associated with the deep-layer trough.\nWhile the environment is not ideal for a tropical cyclone,\nconditions appear favorable for additional intensification, and the\nintensity forecast now calls for Oscar to reach hurricane strength\nin about 24 h. Interaction with the trough after 72 h should start\nextratropical transition, which should be complete between 96-120 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 25.7N  51.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 25.2N  54.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 25.1N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 25.8N  58.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 27.2N  58.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  31/0000Z 32.5N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z 41.0N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  02/0000Z 48.5N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018\n\nDeep convection near the center of Oscar has diminished somewhat\nover the past several hours.  However, there are tightly curved\ncloud bands very near the center indicating a well-organized\ncyclone.  Given that the central convection has not increased, the\ncurrent intensity estimate is held at 55 kt which is a little above\nthe latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates but close to\nthe value indicated by the previous scatterometer data.  Oscar\nshould remain in a moderate vertical shear environment, and over\n26-27 deg C SSTs, for the next couple of days which would allow for\nsome strengthening.  The official forecast is close to the latest\nintensity model consensus and calls for the system to become a\nhurricane soon.  Near or just beyond 96 hours, the shear is forecast\nto increase substantially and Oscar should begin to make the\ntransition to an extratropical cyclone.\n\nThe storm has been moving southwestward, or 235/13 kt, on the\nsoutheastern side of a northeast to southwest-oriented mid-level\nridge.  The ridge is likely to build to the north of Oscar within\n12 to 24 hours, resulting in a turn toward the west.  The cyclone\nshould then turn toward the northwest and north as the ridge shifts\neastward and a trough moves off the eastern U.S. coast.  In the\nlatter half of the forecast period, the system should accelerate\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward in the flow ahead of the\ntrough.  The official track forecast is close to the latest\ndynamical model consensus, and similar to the previous NHC track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 25.0N  52.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 25.0N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 25.5N  56.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 26.4N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 27.9N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  31/0600Z 34.6N  53.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z 42.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  02/0600Z 50.0N  28.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-10-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 AM AST Sun Oct 28 2018\n\nDeep convection has redeveloped near the center of Oscar since early\nthis morning and its low-level center is no longer exposed.\nSatellite intensity estimates have not changed since last night and\nthe estimated intensity of 60 kt is above the various techniques.\nThe initial intensity estimate is based primarily on the latest\navailable ASCAT data from last night around 0100 UTC that showed\nmaximum winds of 55-60 kt. Given the recent increase in convection\nobserved near the center of Oscar, it seems unlikely that the winds\nhave decreased since that time.  It is worth noting that the small\ninner-core of Oscar increases the uncertainty of the intensity\nestimate, and could make the cyclone susceptible to short term\nintensity fluctuations that are nearly impossible to forecast or\nprecisely detect.\n\nVirtually no change has been made to the intensity forecast. The\ntropical storm is moving over sufficiently warm water to support\nintensification and it is located within a light to moderate shear\nenvironment. All the intensity models forecast at least some\nstrengthening, and Oscar is expected to become a hurricane later\ntoday or tonight, with some additional strengthening possible\nthrough Wednesday. Extratropical transition is forecast to begin\nsoon thereafter, which will likely result in a decrease in the\nmaximum winds, even as the extent of tropical-storm-force winds\nrapidly increases. This process is expected to be complete by 120 h.\nThe new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the intensity\nconsensus IVCN at all forecast hours.\n\nOscar turned abruptly westward earlier this morning, and the initial\nmotion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast\nto continue moving generally westward for another 12 to 24 h on the\nsouth side of a mid-layer ridge over the northern central Atlantic.\nOscar should then turn toward the north between the ridge and a\nmid-latitude trough approaching from the west.  By Wednesday, the\ncyclone is expected to accelerate north-northeastward or\nnortheastward as it becomes embedded in deep-layer southwesterly\nflow ahead of the aforementioned trough. All of the global models\nagree on this general scenario, though there are differences\nregarding the exact timing that Oscar will begin its recurvature\nand how quickly it will accelerate across the northern Atlantic.\nThat said, the track consensus aids have changed very little, and no\nsignificant changes were made to the previous track forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 25.5N  53.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 25.6N  55.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 26.2N  57.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 27.3N  58.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 29.3N  57.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 37.1N  51.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 45.5N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  02/1200Z 53.0N  22.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-10-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018\n\nVisible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that Oscar's\nconvective pattern has continued to improve overall today, with a\nsmall eye having developed and been briefly evident between\n1700-1800Z. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt\n(TAFB and SAB) to T4.4/75 kt (UW-CIMSS ADT). The initial intensity\nhas been increased to 65 kt, which is just below the UW-CIMSS\nSATCON consensus estimate of 68 kt.\n\nOscar is moving westward or 270/14 kt. The compact hurricane is\nexpected to move around the southwestern and western periphery of a\ndeep-layer ridge for the next 36 hours or so, resulting in a\nwestward motion overnight, followed by a turn toward the\nwest-northwest and northwest on Monday, with a slow motion toward\nthe north expected by early Tuesday. By late Tuesday and continuing\ninto Friday, Oscar is forecast to turn northeastward and accelerate\nahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer trough that currently lies\njust east of the U.S. east coast. This large synoptic-scale feature\nis expected to keep Oscar away from the United States, the Bahamas,\nand Bermuda. The only fly-in-the-ointment concerning the track\nforecast occurs on day 5 when a strong shortwave trough is forecast\nto dig southward down the west side of Oscar, possibly capturing the\nsmall cyclone over the north Atlantic and forcing it southward\ninstead of allowing the small hurricane to recurve deeper into the\nhigh-latitude westerlies. All of the global and regional models are\nnow indicating this interaction, with the only difference being\nwhether Oscar remains a separate tropical system or merges with the\nshortwave trough. For now, the new official forecast follows the\ntrend of the previous advisory and shows Oscar remaining a separate\nentity, but slowing down considerably as an extratropical cyclone on\ndays 4 and 5, which is similar to that depicted by the consensus\nmodels HCCA and TVCN.\n\nOscar is forecast to remain within an environment of mid- to\nupper-level temperatures that are colder than average by 2-3 deg C\ndue to the cyclone still being embedded within the original parent\nlarger-scale upper-level low/trough. The combination of the below-\naverage environmental temperatures overlying relatively warm SSTs of\n26.5 deg C will result in strong instability, which will aid the\ngeneration of deep convection, especially overnight. Add in Oscar's\nsmall radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 10-15 nmi, and conditions\nappear to be conducive for continued strengthening. The shear\ndirectly over the inner-core region is fairly low as noted by\nanticyclonic cirrus outflow now apparent in visible and water vapor\nimagery, a condition that also favors continued strengthening for\nthe next 48 hours or so. The HWRF, HMON, and Navy COAMPS-TC models\nbring Oscar to major hurricane strength by 48 hours, which isn't out\nof the realm of possibilities based on the small RMW and expected\nlow vertical wind shear. However, the official intensity forecast\nremains on the conservative side due to expected occasional\nintrusions of very dry mid-level air, which could briefly interrupt\nthe intensification process. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing\nsouthwesterly shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is\nexpected to induce a weakening trend, which will be enhanced by\nOscar moving over sub-23 deg C SSTs shortly thereafter. The cold\nSSTs are expected to aid the transition to a strong extratropical\ncyclone. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory, except to push forward the timing of peak intensity to 48\nhours, and it is a little below the HCCA and IVCN intensity\nconsensus models due to the aforementioned dry air issues.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 25.7N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 26.1N  57.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 26.9N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 28.2N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 30.7N  57.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  31/1800Z 38.0N  50.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 45.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/1800Z 45.0N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-10-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 PM AST Sun Oct 28 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that the structure of Oscar has changed\nlittle over the past several hours.  Microwave imagery has shown a\nring or eye feature which is at least partly encircled by deep\nconvection, and an eye has made occasional appearances in infrared\nimagery.  Satellite intensity estimates have changed little, so the\ninitial intensity remains 65 kt.  One change from the previous\nadvisory is that recent scatterometer data show that Oscar has\nsmaller 34-kt wind radii than previously thought, so the initial\nand forecast wind radii have been modified.\n\nThe initial motion remains 270/14.  Oscar is approaching the\nwestern end of a large low- to mid-level ridge over the central\nAtlantic, and thus it should turn northwestward with a decrease in\nforward speed during the next 24 h or so.  From 24-72 h, the\nhurricane should recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies on the\neast side of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through the western\nand central Atlantic.  The models are in good agreement on the\nforecast track through 72 h, then show significant differences based\non whether Oscar merges with a new cut-off low pressure area over\nthe central Atlantic or remains a separate system in the westerlies.\nThe latest GFS has joined the UKMET in showing Oscar racing\nnortheastward into the northeastern Atlantic by 120 h as a separate\nsystem.  In contrast, the HWRF and the FV3 models show a sharp turn\ntoward the south as the new low captures Oscar.  The ECMWF is\nbetween these extremes in showing a more gradual turn toward the\neast well to the east of the HWRF/FV3 and well to the southwest of\nthe GFS/UKMET.  The new forecast track is a little west of the\nprevious track in the early part of the forecast based on the\ncurrent position and motion. Later in the forecast period, it has\nbeen shifted a little to the east in best agreement with the ECMWF.\n\nOscar is forecast to remain in a moist and unstable environment for\nthe next 36-48 h, and the trough approaching from the west is\nlikely to create a divergent outflow pattern.  Based on this, the\nintensity forecast now shows a faster rate of strengthening than\nthe previous advisory.  After reaching its peak intensity in 36-48\nh, it appears likely that the extratropical transition will occur\nnear the 72 h point before the winds drop below hurricane force.\nAfter transition, Oscar is expected to gradually decay.  It should\nbe noted that if the FV3 scenario verifies, Oscar may maintain\ntropical cyclone status beyond 72 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 25.6N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 25.9N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 27.1N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 29.1N  58.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 32.0N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 39.0N  48.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/0000Z 44.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/0000Z 45.0N  29.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-10-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Oscar has continued to become better\norganized, with a growing CDO and convective banding features\nare better defined, especially over the southern semicircle of\nthe hurricane.  Upper-level outflow is gradually becoming better\nestablished to the south.  Although the most recent Dvorak Current\nIntensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are at 65 kt, given that the\neye is becoming better defined, the advisory intensity is set at 70\nkt.  Oscar is currently under some northerly to north-northwesterly\nshear, but the shear is expected to diminish somewhat later today.\nAlso, the tropical cyclone is expected to move through a modestly\nmoist air mass for the next day or two.  Therefore, additional\nstrengthening is forecast through 36 hours in agreement with the\nlatest intensity model consensus.  Around 48 hours into the forecast\nperiod, the shear begins to increase significantly, with notably\ncooler SSTs.  This should lead to the onset of a steady weakening\ntrend.  By about 72 hours, the global models indicate that Oscar\nwill become embedded in a frontal zone, so the official forecast\nshows the system becoming an extratropical cyclone at that time.\n\nOscar has slowed its forward motion and is now moving at about\n270/11 kt.  A mid-level high to the north of the cyclone is\nexpected to quickly shift eastward, while a mid-latitude trough\napproaches Oscar from the west in a day or so.  This evolution of\nthe steering flow should cause Oscar to turn northward to\nnorth-northeastward in 24-48 hours.  Later in the forecast period,\nOscar is likely to move quickly northeastward on the eastern side\nof the trough.  There has been some inconsistencies in the track\nmodel guidance around 5 days over the last few forecast cycles,\nwith the model consensus, TVCN, shifting significantly southward and\nthen northward.  The official forecast track is somewhat to the\nleft of the previous one near the end of the period, to reflect the\nlatest consensus prediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 25.7N  57.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 26.1N  58.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 27.7N  58.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 30.0N  57.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  31/0600Z 33.0N  54.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 41.5N  46.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/0600Z 46.0N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/0600Z 48.0N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-10-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 AM AST Mon Oct 29 2018\n\nOscar's convective cloud pattern has continued to improve since the\nprevious advisory, with a small, cloud-filled eye now apparent in\nvisible satellite imagery and also in a recent SSMI/S microwave\npass. In addition, cirrus outflow has been expanding in all\nquadrants, especially in the eastern semicircle. The initial\nintensity of 75 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate\nof T4.5/77 kt from TAFB, a Data-T-number of T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and\nan NHC objective intensity estimate of T4.4/75 kt.  It is also worth\nnoting that bursts of lightning activity in the eastern eyewall have\nbeen occurring since around 1100 UTC.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 285/06 kt. Oscar has slowed its\nforward motion significantly and has made the advertised turn toward\nthe west-northwest. A motion toward the northwest is expected by\nlate afternoon today as the hurricane rounds the southwestern\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge. A turns toward the north and then\ntoward the north-northeast are forecast on Tuesday as Oscar moves\nnorth of the ridge axis ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer\ntrough currently approaching Bermuda. The trough is expected to\ncontinue advancing eastward over the next couple of days,\naccelerating Oscar toward the northeast at forward speeds near 25 kt\non Wednesday through Friday. Although a strong shortwave trough is\nstill forecast to dig southward to the west of Oscar on Wednesday,\nnone of the model guidance shows the hurricane being captured any\nlonger, and instead keep the cyclone as a separate entity that\naccelerates northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies as a\nstrong extratropical cyclone. The official track forecast is similar\nto the previous advisory, and lies close to an average of the\ncorrected-consensus models HCCA and FSSE and the simple consensus\nmodels TVCA and TVCX.\n\nDeep-layer (850-200 mb) shear calculations by the SHIPS model and\nUW-CIMSS are at least 25 kt from the northwest, which clearly is not\nnegatively affecting the improving cirrus outflow. This is likely\ndue to the large 1000-km domain that the SHIPS model uses to compute\nvertical wind shear. Furthermore, most of the cloud top temperatures\nwithin the outflow layer appear to be mostly below the 200-mb level,\nand closer to the 250-mb level. The large shear values are resulting\nin much less intensification forecast by the SHIPS and LGEM\nstatistical-dynamical intensity models. As a result, the official\nintensity forecast leans more toward the HCCA and FSSE models, which\nare weighing more heavily the stronger intensity forecasts provided\nby the HWRF, HMON, and Navy COAMPS-TC models, which have Oscar\nstrengthening to just below major hurricane status in 24-36 hours.\nBy 48 hours and beyond, sharply decreasing SSTs along with\nincreasing southwesterly shear ahead of a deep-layer trough are\nexpected to cause Oscar to gradually weaken and transition to a\nstrong extratropical low in 60-72 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 25.8N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 26.8N  58.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 28.7N  58.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  31/0000Z 31.4N  56.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  31/1200Z 35.0N  52.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 43.0N  43.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/1200Z 50.0N  30.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/1200Z 55.0N  15.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-10-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018\n\nThe overall cloud pattern of Oscar is somewhat asymmetrical, and\nconvective banding is limited to the eastern semicircle of the\ncyclone. However, recent visible and microwave imagery indicate\nthat tight eyewall of the hurricane is still very well defined,\ndespite the 20 kt or more of westerly shear analyzed in SHIPS and\nUW-CIMSS diagnostics. It appears that the shear is not having much\nof an affect on Oscar's inner-core, and in fact the small eye of the\nhurricane has become better defined over the past 6 hours. Recent\nobjective and subjective intensity estimates support an intensity of\n75-80 kt, and given the small radius of maximum winds (RMW) of\nOscar, it seems more appropriate to round up, yielding an estimated\nintensity of 80 kt.\n\nAll of the dynamical intensity guidance calls for additional\nintensification in the short term. Persistent lightning inside the\nhurricane's RMW during the past several hours also supports the\nnotion of additional strengthening, as this signal has been\nassociated with intensifying hurricanes in the past. By 24 h and\nbeyond, Oscar will likely level off in intensity and then begin to\nweaken while it moves over much cooler SSTs and begins extratropical\ntransition. Although this process will likely result in a rapid\nexpansion of Oscar's tropical-storm-force wind field, it should also\ncause the maximum winds associated with the cyclone to steadily\ndecrease through the end of the week. The NHC intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and generally follows IVCN\nthrough the forecast period.\n\nOscar's eye has wobbled during the past several hours, but the\nhurricane appears to have already begun its expected turn toward the\nnorth. The hurricane is essentially on-track, and no major changes\nwere required to the NHC track forecast. A large mid-latitude\ntrough to the west will likely cause Oscar to accelerate\nnorth-northeastward or northeastward beginning by late Tuesday, and\nthen rapidly move across the northern central Atlantic in that\ndirection.  The global models are in reasonably good agreement on\nthe speed and heading of Oscar through day 5, which is somewhat\nunusual for a recurving cyclone. The new official track forecast is\nbased on a blend of the simple and corrected multi-model consensus\naids, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high.\n\nAlthough Oscar is not expected to directly affect any land areas,\nlarge swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office as these\nconditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 26.5N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 27.8N  58.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 29.9N  57.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  31/0600Z 33.0N  54.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  31/1800Z 37.3N  50.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 46.7N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/1800Z 54.0N  25.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/1800Z 60.0N  12.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-10-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 PM AST Mon Oct 29 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Oscar continued to improved after\nthe release of the previous advisory, with the small eye becoming\na little more distinct around 0000 UTC, but it has again become\ncloud filled within the past hour or so.  Recent microwave imagery\ncontinues to depict a tiny eye with a solid ring of deep convection\nsurrounding it, but there is little outer banding over the\nsouthwestern portion of the circulation likely due to shear and\ndry air.  Objective satellite intensity estimates which may be\nhaving trouble discerning the small eye are around 80 kt, while\nsubjective T-numbers range from T5.0 from SAB to T5.5 from TAFB.\nAs a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 90 kt\nfor this advisory.\n\nAlthough the NHC intensity forecast does not explicitly show\nadditional strengthening, Oscar has another 12 hours or so over\nSSTs of 26-26.5 deg C in which some slight intensification could\noccur.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler\nwaters along the forecast track should cause the hurricane to weaken\ngradually as extratropical transition begins.  Oscar is forecast to\ncomplete extratropical transition in about 48 hours, and remain a\npowerful post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for much of\nthe forecast period.  The global models indicate that Oscar's wind\nfield will quickly expand during its transition to a post-tropical\ncyclone, and this is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast.\n\nThe hurricane has been moving slightly east of due north or 010/8\nkt.  Oscar is forecast to begin to accelerate north-northeastward or\nnortheastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that will be moving over\nthe western Atlantic on Tuesday.  The hurricane should be well\nembedded within the deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the\ntrough by Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the cyclone is expected to\nmove rapidly northeastward across the north-central and northeastern\nAtlantic later this week.  There has been little change to the\nguidance envelope, and the new NHC track forecast is essentially\nan update of the previous advisory.  The official forecast again\nlies near the various consensus aids and is near the middle of the\ntightly clustered model guidance.\n\nAlthough Oscar is not expected to directly affect any land areas,\nlarge swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office as these\nconditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 27.4N  58.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 28.8N  57.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  31/0000Z 31.5N  55.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  31/1200Z 35.3N  52.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 40.1N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/0000Z 49.1N  36.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  03/0000Z 56.2N  22.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  04/0000Z 62.5N   9.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-10-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018\n\nOscar's eye is less distinct on infrared satellite imagery than it\nwas several hours ago.  Conventional and microwave imagery suggest\nthat the center is tilted a bit to the northeast with height, and\nthere continues to be some erosion of convection over the\nsouthwestern quadrant of the hurricane.  This is indicative of some\nsouthwesterly shear over the system, and Oscar does not appear\nlikely to strengthen further.  The current intensity is held at 90\nkt based on a blend of Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB\nand SAB.  Model guidance indicates that the shear will not increase\nfurther until tonight, so the intensity is held steady for the next\n12 hours.  After that time, south-southwesterly shear if forecast to\nincrease and become quite high in 36-48 hours.  Around that time,\nglobal models show Oscar interacting with a frontal zone, and\ncausing significant warm and cold air advection around the center,\nindicating the transition to a vigorous extratropical cyclone.\nNot surprisingly, the global guidance also shows a substantial\nincrease in the size of the system during and after the\nextratropical transformation, and this is reflected in the NHC wind\nradii forecasts.\n\nOscar is beginning to move faster, just to the east of due north, or\naround 010/11 kt.  There is little change to the track forecast\nreasoning from the previous advisory.  Over the next couple of days,\nOscar should continue to accelerate, toward the north-northeast,\nin the flow on the southeast side of a mid-latitude trough that has\njust moved off the United States east coast.  Later in the period,\npost-tropical Oscar should become more embedded within the trough\nand in the mid-latitude westerlies, and move northeastward over the\nnortheastern Atlantic.  The official track forecast is similar to\nthe previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected\ndynamical model consensus predictions.\n\nLarge swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office as these\nconditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 28.6N  58.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 30.6N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  31/0600Z 34.0N  54.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  31/1800Z 38.5N  50.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 43.5N  46.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/0600Z 50.5N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  03/0600Z 57.5N  21.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  04/0600Z 63.0N   9.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-10-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 AM AST Tue Oct 30 2018\n\nCloud-top temperatures have warmed a bit overall, and the convective\npattern is becoming more asymmetric as dry air is infiltrating the\nsouthern and eastern part of Oscar's circulation.  However, the\nhurricane is still producing plenty of inner-core convection and\nsome lightning strikes.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB\nand SAB still support maximum winds of 90-100 kt, but objective\nnumbers are much lower (65-75 kt), so Oscar's initial intensity is\nlowered slightly to 85 kt.\n\nIncreasing shear and stronger upper-level divergence will likely\noffset each other in the short term, causing Oscar to maintain its\nintensity or only slightly weaken during the next 24 hours.\nHowever, a cold front is quickly approaching Oscar from the\nnorthwest, and their interaction is expected to cause Oscar to\ncomplete extratropical transition and become fully embedded within\nthe frontal zone in about 36 hours.  Oscar's winds should gradually\ndiminish after it becomes extratropical, but the NHC official\nforecast remains above the various consensus aids from 36 hours and\nbeyond and lies closest to the GFS and ECMWF global models, which\nshould have a good handle on the cyclone's structure during the\npost-tropical phase.\n\nOscar continues to accelerate and has turned north-northeastward,\nor 020/12 kt, while entering the flow between a large high over the\neastern/central Atlantic and a mid-latitude trough now moving over\nthe western Atlantic.  Oscar is expected to become embedded within\nthe trough by 36 hours (the completion of extratropical transition),\nwith the entire system becoming a cut-off low north of the jet\nstream by days 4 and 5.  The track models are in fairly good\nagreement on Oscar's future path, but there are speed differences\nby the end of the forecast period.  Of particular note, the ECMWF\nis much faster than the other models, showing a more progressive\npattern on day 5.  The NHC track forecast lies close to the\nprevious official forecast to maintain continuity, but it is still\nfaster than the GFS, HWRF, and the TVCN multi-model consensus at\nday 5.\n\nLarge swells from Oscar will affect Bermuda through Wednesday.\nPlease consult products from your local weather office as these\nconditions could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 29.7N  57.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  31/0000Z 31.8N  56.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  31/1200Z 35.6N  52.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 40.6N  48.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  01/1200Z 45.1N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/1200Z 52.6N  31.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  03/1200Z 59.0N  18.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  04/1200Z 63.5N   6.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-10-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018\n\nRecent microwave imagery indicates that Oscar continues to maintain\na small inner-core, however, it is tilted somewhat southwest to\nnortheast with height due to increasing southwesterly wind shear.\nCloud tops have continued to warm over the past few hours, and\nobjective and subjective intensity estimates have decreased since\nthis morning. The initial intensity has been lowered to 75 kt,\nbased primarily on a blend of Final-T and Current Intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe hurricane is moving over 24 deg C waters and a cold front\nassociated with a large mid-latitude trough is quickly approaching\nfrom the west. This combination should soon kick off the\nextratropical transition (ET) process, and the most recent runs of\nthe GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET indicate that Oscar will become fully\nextratropical within 36 h, if not sooner. Very gradual weakening is\nstill expected during the next day or so while ET occurs, however,\nall of the dynamical models forecast that Oscar will be at or very\nnear hurricane-strength when it becomes post-tropical. The maximum\nwinds of the cyclone will likely slowly decrease thereafter, but\nOscar will likely have a very large wind field and gale-force winds\nare possible over a large portion of the far north Atlantic. By\nday 5, the post-tropical low is forecast to merge with another\nmid-latitude low pressure system over the far northeastern Atlantic.\n\nAs expected, the hurricane is accelerating north-northeastward, with\nan initial motion estimate of 025/17 kt. Further acceleration is\nlikely over the next 36 hours, and the global models are in\nremarkably good agreement on the track of the cyclone through that\ntime. A turn toward the northeast is expected thereafter, and\nwhile there are still speed differences between the various global\nmodel solutions, the NHC forecast remains near the fairly steady\nmulti-model consensus at all forecast hours. Almost no change was\nmade to the official track forecast, which is merely an update of\nthe previous advisory.\n\nAlthough Oscar is forecast to move farther from Bermuda overnight,\nlarge swells from the hurricane are expected to affect portions of\nthe island's coast through Wednesday. Please consult products from\nyour local weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 31.3N  56.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  31/0600Z 33.8N  54.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  31/1800Z 38.3N  50.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 43.0N  46.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  01/1800Z 46.7N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/1800Z 54.0N  28.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  03/1800Z 59.0N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-10-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 PM AST Tue Oct 30 2018\n\nWhile conventional satellite imagery continues to show an area of\ndeep convection over the center of Oscar, recent microwave data\nsuggest that the inner core has become fragmented and that the\ncirculation is tilted from southwest to northeast.  The overall\ncloud pattern has also expanded northward as Oscar begins to\ninteract with a frontal zone that is approaching the system from\nthe northwest.  A blend of the latest Dvorak T- and Current\nIntensity (CI) numbers yields an initial wind speed of 70 kt for\nthis advisory.  Oscar will be moving over decreasing SSTs and into\nan area of higher vertical wind shear tonight and Wednesday which\nis likely to cause some additional weakening during that time.  The\nhurricane should complete its extratropical transition in about 24\nhours, and the dynamical models indicate that the post-tropical\ncyclone is likely to maintain 60-65 kt winds for at least another\ncouple of days.  Some weakening is expected by 96 hours before the\nsystem merges with another low pressure area over the far\nnortheastern Atlantic.\n\nOscar has turned northeastward and continues to accelerate. An\nadditional increase in forward speed is anticipated during the next\nday or two, as the cyclone becomes embedded within deep-layer\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough.  Late in the\nperiod, the post-tropical low is forecast to slow down over the\nnortheastern Atlantic.  The track guidance remains in good\nagreement, except for some forward speed differences late in the\nperiod.  The NHC track forecast is once again close to the various\nconsensus aids and very similar to the previous advisory.\n\nLarge swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions\nof the coast of Bermuda through Wednesday.  Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 32.8N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 35.6N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 40.2N  48.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  01/1200Z 44.3N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/0000Z 48.2N  38.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  03/0000Z 55.2N  24.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  04/0000Z 61.0N  12.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  05/0000Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-10-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018\n\nOscar continues to become less tropical-looking in appearance.\nCentral convection is now minimal, and the overall cloud pattern is\nquite asymmetric, with the main area of dense overcast over the\nwestern portion of the circulation, stretching northward over an\napproaching frontal boundary.  The current intensity estimate is 65\nkt in accord with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from\nTAFB and SAB.  Oscar is expected to merge with the nearby front in\n12-18 hours, by which time the global models depict considerable\ncold and warm advection around the center.  This indicates that\nOscar will become an extratropical cyclone tonight, but energy from\nbaroclinic processes will likely maintain the system near hurricane\nstrength for the next couple of days.  Only gradual weakening is\nexpected thereafter and post-tropical Oscar will likely be a strong\ncyclone for the next 4 days or so.  Post-tropical Oscar is forecast\nto merge with another extratropical cyclone at high latitudes over\nthe weekend.   The official intensity forecast is close to the\nlatest GFS prediction, which should be appropriate for a\nmid-latitude system.\n\nOscar is moving quickly toward the northeast, or 035/19 kt.  The\nhurricane is being steered by the flow on the eastern side of a\ntrough that is passing through Atlantic Canada.  In a day or so,\npost-tropical Oscar should become embedded within the trough and\nmove rapidly northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the\nnorth-central and northeastern Atlantic.  The track guidance is in\nfairly good agreement, aside from some speed differences in the\nlatter part of the forecast period.  The official forecast is close\nto the latest dynamical model consensus, and is similar to the\nprevious NHC track.\n\nLarge swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions\nof the coast of Bermuda through today.  Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office, as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0900Z 34.1N  53.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 37.6N  50.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 42.2N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  01/1800Z 46.0N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/0600Z 49.7N  36.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  03/0600Z 56.0N  23.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  04/0600Z 61.5N  10.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  05/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Oscar","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-10-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Oscar Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n1100 AM AST Wed Oct 31 2018\n\nOscar is quickly transforming into an extratropical low.  Although\nthere is still a little bit of deep convection just north of the\ncenter, a more prominent cloud shield extends northward from the\nwestern part of the circulation.  In addition, GOES-16 derived\nproducts show Oscar's center nearly embedded within a frontal zone\nand cold air advection occurring on the back side of the system.\nThe maximum winds are a bit uncertain, but for now they are held at\n65 kt based on the Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB and\nthe latest microwave estimates, which range from 60-70 kt.\n\nOscar is expected to complete extratropical transition later today\nwhen it becomes fully attached to the frontal boundary.  Baroclinic\nenergy is likely to keep the cyclone's intensity relatively steady\nfor the next 48 hours or so, although it should be noted that the\nGFS shows some intensification later today as a sting jet develops\nto the west of the center.  After 48 hours, the post-tropical\ncyclone is expected to gradually lose strength, and the NHC\nintensity forecast continues to most closely follow the GFS model,\nwhich is at the high end of the guidance envelope.  Despite this\nweakening, Oscar's wind field is expected to grow substantially,\naffecting a large portion of the north Atlantic Ocean over the next\nseveral days.\n\nA northeastward acceleration continues with an initial motion of\n035/25 kt.  Further acceleration toward the north Atlantic is\nexpected during the next 48 hours while Oscar becomes more fully\nembedded within the mid-latitude flow.  The new NHC track forecast\nwas shifted slightly northward and westward from the previous\nforecast to trend closer to the latest consensus aids, but\notherwise the track forecast reasoning remains unchanged.\n\nLarge swells from Oscar are expected to continue to affect portions\nof the coast of Bermuda through today.  Please consult products\nfrom your local weather office, as these conditions could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1500Z 36.6N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 40.2N  48.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  01/1200Z 44.5N  44.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  02/0000Z 48.4N  38.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/1200Z 52.1N  32.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  03/1200Z 57.8N  18.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  04/1200Z 64.0N   5.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Oscar","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-10-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Oscar Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162018\n500 PM AST Wed Oct 31 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Oscar has\nbecome a hurricane-force extratropical low, as the central\nconvection has all but dissipated and frontal-band-type cloud\nfeatures have become better defined.  The scatterometer data show\nhurricane-force winds about 70 n mi south of the center, and that\nthe overall wind field has expanded considerably since the previous\noverpass.  The cyclone is expected to maintain an intensity of 60-65\nkt for the next 48 h, then gradually weaken as the baroclinic energy\nwanes, with dissipation occurring between 96-120 h over the far\nnortheastern Atlantic.\n\nThe initial motion is now 030/30 kt.  Oscar is now well embedded in\nthe mid-latitude westerlies, and for the next 3-4 days it should\nmove generally northeastward with a gradual decrease in forward\nspeed.\n\nMuch of the current forecast, especially the intensity and the\nsize, is based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Oscar from the National Hurricane\nCenter.  Additional information on this system can be found in High\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\nat https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 39.3N  49.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 12H  01/0600Z 42.6N  46.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  01/1800Z 46.8N  41.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  02/0600Z 50.7N  35.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/1800Z 54.2N  28.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  03/1800Z 59.5N  15.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  04/1800Z 67.0N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018\n\nDeep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued\nto become better organized since the previous advisory with an\nincrease in banding over the western and southern portions of the\ncirculation.  As a result, satellite intensity estimates have\nincreased to T2.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial wind speed has\nbeen increased to 35 kt.  Hector becomes the eighth named storm of\nthe 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.\n\nHector is forecast to traverse warm SSTs and remain within a\nfavorable upper-level wind pattern during the next day or so which\nshould result in steady strengthening.  Some moderate northeasterly\nshear could temper the rate of intensification in 36-48 h, but the\nintensity guidance is generally more aggressive this cycle.  The\nNHC intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of strengthening\nearly in the forecast period, and brings Hector to hurricane status\nin a couple of days, which is in line with most of the intensity\nguidance.  The updated official forecast also indicates a slightly\nhigher peak intensity, but it is not as high as the dynamical model\nguidance and the ICON intensity consensus model in deference to the\nprevious NHC advisory.\n\nRecent satellite fixes indicate that Hector is moving west-\nnorthwestward or 285/12 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge to the\nnorth of the tropical storm is expected to keep the system on a\ngenerally west-northwestward to westward motion throughout the\nforecast period.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this\nscenario, but there are some differences in the predicted forward\nspeed of the cyclone.  The ECMWF depicts a faster westward motion\nwhile the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a somewhat slower\nspeed.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the\nprevious official forecast, but is slower than most of the\nconsensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 13.0N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.4N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 13.8N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 13.9N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 13.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 13.8N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 13.7N 134.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 13.7N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018\n\nHector is still somewhat disorganized, with a majority of its deep\nconvection displaced to the south and west of its surface center. In\nfact, a recent AMSU pass around 0515 UTC indicated that the center\nof Hector was nearly exposed on the northeast side of a small curved\nband. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have not changed\nsince the last advisory and the ASCAT instruments missed the cyclone\nonce again, so the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt.\n\nEasterly shear of around 10 kt, as analyzed in SHIPS diagnostics,\nappears to be the primary factor preventing Hector from becoming\nbetter organized. The latest GFS and ECMWF runs at 00Z suggest that\nthe shear will increase slightly during the next 24-36 hours before\ndecreasing substantially during the second half of the forecast\nperiod. Despite the shear, all of the intensity guidance forecasts\nthat Hector will intensify in an otherwise favorable environment,\nand the intensity guidance is generally higher than it was\npreviously. The dynamical hurricane models, HWRF, HMON, and\nCOAMPS-TC all bring Hector to near major hurricane strength, while\nSHIPS and LGEM are a little lower. Given that Hector is still fairly\ndisorganized, the intensity forecast for the first 24 hours is\nsomewhat conservative, and favors the statistical-dynamical models.\nBeyond that time, the NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than\nit was previously, but is still just below the intensity consensus.\n\nThe estimated initial motion of the tropical storm is 285/13 kt.\nLittle change has been made to the track forecast, which has been\nadjusted only slightly to the north through most of the forecast\nperiod. The track guidance is in very good agreement on the track of\nHector, and the main source of uncertainty is the speed at which an\nextensive mid-level ridge to the north will steer the cyclone\nwestward. Since I see no obvious reason to favor any one of the\ntypically-reliable global models, the NHC forecast is now very close\nto the various consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 13.4N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 13.9N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 14.2N 123.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 14.4N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 14.4N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 14.3N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 14.0N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 14.0N 140.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 AM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Hector is on a strengthening trend,\nwith a large area of convection near and west of the apparent\ncenter. The latest microwave data, a 1159Z F-16 pass, also show the\nbeginnings of an inner core in the 91-Ghz channels. The system has\nsome tilt, however, with suggestions from the microwave pass that\nthe low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned.  The latest\nintensity estimates from TAFB/SAB are 45 kt, but I've elected to\nonly raise the wind speed to 40 kt due to uncertainty in the initial\nposition and the microwave tilt.\n\nHector is forecast to remain over warm water, with light-to-\nmoderate shear and somewhat dry mid-level moisture for the\nnext several days.  In 12 to 24 hours, northeasterly shear is\nforecast to increase near Hector, which should slow the\nintensification rate.  Thus the official forecast shows\nstrengthening at less than a climatological rate for the next\nfew days.  At long range, some of model guidance suggest the\nupper-level environment could become very favorable, with the\nHWRF/HMON now showing Hector at category 4 strength in the central\nPacific Ocean.  I would prefer to see more consistency from these\nmodels before showing such a large increase, but the new forecast is\nraised from the previous one and is higher than the model consensus.\n\nThe storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt.  Hector should\nturn to the west tomorrow and even move a little south-of-west for\nthe next few days thereafter as the subtropical ridge builds to the\nnorth and west of the cyclone.  The largest uncertainty is the\nlocation of Hector in a few days as an inverted upper-level trough\nforms to the north or northeast of the cyclone.  For now there is\nenough separation of Hector and this trough to prevent the cyclone\nfrom gaining much latitude.   While the model guidance doesn't show\na lot of spread for now, and the new forecast is close to the\nprevious one, it is worth keeping an eye on the trough to make sure\nit stays separate from Hector at long range.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 13.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 14.2N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 14.6N 126.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 14.5N 128.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 14.4N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 13.7N 142.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018\n\nHector continues to become better organized.  Microwave data\nindicate that the low- and mid-level centers are now closer\ntogether, and visible satellite imagery is showing more curved\nbanding features.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the CIMSS\nADT are all 45 kt, so that will be the initial intensity.  Hector\nshould continue to intensify for the next day or so in a favorable\nenvironment of light-to-moderate shear and warm SSTs.  However, a\nsurge of northeasterly upper-level flow is forecast to impact the\ncyclone on Thursday, which will likely arrest the strengthening\ntrend.  This stronger flow should abate late Friday or Saturday,\nleading to further intensification.  The latest forecast is below\nthe consensus at shorter range, then above the consensus at long\nrange. There remains the potential that the intensity forecast is\ntoo low at days 4 and 5, but the model guidance is too divergent\nwith the upper-level environment at that time to have confidence in\nraising the forecast.\n\nScatterometer and microwave data are showing the system moving\nwestward at 10 kt. Hector should continue moving westward overnight\nand then even move a little south-of-west for the next few days\nas the subtropical ridge builds to the north and west of the\ncyclone.  The biggest change from 6 hours ago is that the guidance\nis faster at long range due to the tropical cyclone staying\nseparate from an upper-level trough in the northwestward part of\nthe eastern Pacific.  The latest NHC forecast follows the speedier\ntrend of the guidance, but is not as fast as the ECMWF or UKMET\nmodels.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 13.8N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 14.1N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 14.4N 125.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 14.5N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 14.1N 134.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 13.5N 139.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 13.5N 143.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 PM PDT Wed Aug 01 2018\n\nVisible satellite imagery continues to show an increase in banding\nin association with Hector, and the last several images suggest\nthat a small CDO may be developing.  Recent microwave data,\nhowever, has not shown any significant improvement of the inner\ncore.  The latest Dvorak satellite estimates are 45 kt from SAB\nand 55 kt from TAFB, while AMSU and objective UW/CIMSS Dvorak\nestimates are in between.  As a result, the initial wind speed has\nbeen increased to 50 kt.  An increase in northeasterly shear by\ntomorrow is expected to temporarily halt the intensification\nprocess.  However, the shear is expected to decrease after 48 hours,\nwhich should allow for strengthening later in the period while\nHector remains over warm water.  There is still a large spread in\nthe intensity guidance by day 4, with the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance\nshowing an intensity of around 65 kt, while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC\nmodel bring Hector to category 4 strength.  Given the large\ndivergence in the intensity guidance at the long range, the NHC\nforecast remains close to the consensus aids.\n\nHector continues to move westward at around 10 kt.  There has been\nno significant change to the track forecast reasoning.  Hector\nshould move generally westward to the south of a strong subtropical\nridge through Friday.  The ridge is forecast to build westward by\nthe weekend which is expected to impart a west-southwestward motion\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period.  The overall track\nguidance envelope has not changed since the previous advisory and\nthe NHC track forecast is near the middle of the envelope.  The\nlatest NHC track prediction is very close to the previous NHC\nadvisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 14.0N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 14.3N 124.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 14.4N 126.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 14.5N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 14.5N 131.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 14.0N 135.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 13.8N 145.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hector Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018\n\nHector's satellite presentation has quickly improved over the past\nfew hours. Recent microwave and scatterometer data indicate that\nthe low-level center is now well embedded within the expanding\nconvective canopy, and a tiny mid-level eye has formed. In fact, a\nlate-arriving WindSat pass from around 0230 UTC showed that Hector\nhad a mid-level structure that has been associated with rapidly\nintensifying tropical cyclones, when present in low-shear\nenvironments. The initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt based\non a timely ASCAT-B overpass around 0556 UTC.  Although the maximum\nwinds measured by the ASCAT were only around 55 kt, at least some\nundersampling seems likely given the small size of the inner-core of\nthe cyclone.\n\nThe northeasterly shear that has been affecting Hector does not\nappear to be significantly affecting the inner-core of the cyclone\nat this time. However, it is uncertain whether this is only a\nshort-term trend, or if the inner core will remain protected from\nthe higher shear going forward.  While the GFS and ECMWF indicate\nthat the shear should decrease through today, the HWRF and HMON\nmodels forecast that Hector will become strongly sheared by tomorrow\nand temporarily weaken as a result. The small size of the tropical\ncyclone further complicates the intensity forecast since small\ncyclones can quickly intensify or weaken, especially in moderate\nshear environments, and these short-term fluctuations are very\ndifficult to predict. As a course of least regret, the NHC forecast\ndoes not show significant strengthening or weakening for the first\n48 h of the forecast and instead shows steady strengthening,\nsimilar to the DSHP and LGEM models, and is higher than the previous\nadvisory.  For days 3-5, there is a better consensus among the\nmodels that Hector will strengthen, and the official forecast is\nstill close to the multi-model consensus and the previous forecast.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 285/10 kt.  There is more\nconfidence in the track forecast.  A strong subtropical ridge\nextending from the eastern Pacific into the central Pacific should\nkeep Hector on a general west heading through the entire forecast\nperiod.  The main source of uncertainty is still the speed of the\ntropical cyclone at days 3-5.  Since the main difference between the\nmodels appears to be subtle differences in the strength of the\nridge, the NHC forecast is still based on the multi-model consensus\nand little change has been made from the previous advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 14.3N 123.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 14.5N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 14.6N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 14.5N 129.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 14.4N 132.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 14.0N 136.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 14.0N 141.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 AM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018\n\nWell, so much for the shear.  Satellite images indicate that Hector\nis rapidly intensifying and has recently formed a small eye.  The\ninitial wind speed is set to 75 kt, based on the TAFB Dvorak\nestimate.  While there still could be some shear over the next day\nor so, it seems apparent now that the highest shear should stay\nnorth of the tropical cyclone, leaving Hector in a pocket of lighter\nwinds.  The main inhibiting factor is expected to be more marginal\nSSTs, with temperatures below 27C in the path of the hurricane.\nThe official forecast assumes the current intensification trend\nwill last for another 12 hours or so, then levels off due to the\nmore marginal waters, similar to the latest SHIPS/LGEM forecasts.\nIt is worth noting that the regional hurricane models show an\nunrealistic solution of significant weakening in the short term,\nand have been disregarded.  In the longer range, the upper-level\nenvironment and water temperatures are more than sufficient to\nsupport a major hurricane, and the new forecast reflects these\nconditions.\n\nHector has turned westward and accelerated, now moving 12 kt.\nA large subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward over the\nnext several days, keeping the cyclone on this general course into\nthe Central Pacific.  The ridge could weaken somewhat by day 5,\ncausing a more west-northwestward motion early next week.  Little\nchange was made to the previous official track forecast, although it\nis a shade faster at the end of the period.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 14.2N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 14.3N 126.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 14.3N 128.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 14.2N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 14.0N 133.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 13.6N 138.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 13.8N 143.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 14.5N 148.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018\n\nHector is a small but powerful hurricane this afternoon.  Visible\nGOES-15 data show that it has a 10 n mi wide eye, surrounded by a\nincreasingly symmetric area of deep convection.  The latest\nsatellite estimates at 18 UTC were between 90 kt and 95 kt, and\nsince the presentation has continued to improve during the past few\nhours, the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt.\n\nHector has intensified an impressive 50 kt over the past 24 hours-\nremarkable since the environment did not seem particularly\nfavorable even 12 hours ago.  What is perplexing about this forecast\nis that, despite all of the global models showing a more conducive\nenvironment during the next day or two, none of the regional\nhurricane models show intensification, and in fact they all show\nweakening. This would be a dramatic change, which seems pretty\nunlikely given the current state of things.  It makes the most sense\nto show continuing strengthening, albeit at a reduced rate since the\nSSTs do moderate, in line with the SHIPS & LGEM models.  The new\nforecast has a peak intensity at 72 hours when SSTs are the warmest\nwith the lowest environmental shear.  After that time, water\ntemperatures and mid-level humidites should gradually decrease,\nwhich will probably promote some weakening. Obviously this is a low\nconfidence forecast, and I wouldn't be surprised if it had to be\nraised in the short term later tonight.\n\nHector continues on course, moving westward at 12 kt.  The track\nforecast for the next 3 days is of high confidence, since the\nguidance is in good agreement and a large subtropical ridge is\nproviding a well-defined steering current.  Complications arise in\nthe long range due to the potential interaction of Hector with a\nmid-level trough in the Central Pacific.  The latest models show\nHector moving into a weakness in the ridge associated with the\ntrough, causing a more west-northwestward motion earlier in the\nforecast.  This is a fairly subtle change but has led to most of\nthe guidance trending to the north.  The official forecast is\nshifted in that direction, but remains on the southwest side of the\nguidance envelope, close to the corrected-consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 14.1N 125.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 14.0N 127.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 13.9N 129.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 13.9N 132.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 13.8N 134.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 13.6N 139.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 PM PDT Thu Aug 02 2018\n\nHector's rapid intensification has ended for the moment, with\nsatellite imagery showing that the eye has become cloud filled\nsince the last advisory.  In addition, recent satellite microwave\ndata indicate some erosion of the central convection on the north\nside of the center, possibly due to shear or a tongue of dry air\nworking into the cyclone.  The initial intensity is held at 95 kt\nin best agreement with the most recent CIMSS satellite consensus\nintensity estimate, but it is possible that this is a little\ngenerous.\n\nThe initial motion is 270/11.  A large subtropical ridge to the\nnorth of Hector should steer the cyclone westward for the next\nthree days or so, and this part of the forecast track is an update\nof the previous track.  Beyond that time, the large-scale models\nforecast a large deep-layer trough to develop over the northeastern\nPacific, causing a weakness in the ridge to the north of Hector, and\nleading to the cyclone turning west-northwestward.  There is some\nspread in the guidance during this time, with the GFS forecasting a\nweaker ridge and a more northward track than the ECMWF.  Overall,\nthe guidance envelope has again shifted northward from 72-120 h,\nand the new forecast track does likewise in best agreement with the\nHCCA corrected consensus and Florida State Superensemble models.\n\nThe intensity forecast remains low confidence.  While the shear\nnear Hector should subside during the next 12-24 h, the forecast\ntrack takes the cyclone over slightly cooler sea surface\ntemperatures during this time.  This part of the new intensity\nforecast thus calls for little change in strength.  From 24-72 h,\nthe cyclone should move over warmer water in a light shear\nenvironment, which looks favorable for strengthening.  However,\nthere is sharp divergence in the guidance for this part of the\nforecast, with the SHIPS and LGEM models forecasting weakening while\nthe dynamical HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models forecast\nintensification to a major hurricane.  The NHC forecast sides with\nthe dynamical models for this period, and it lies near the upper\nedge of the intensity guidance.  After 72 h, Hector is expected to\ngradually weaken as it moves into a drier air mass.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 14.1N 126.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 14.1N 128.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 14.1N 130.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 14.0N 132.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 13.9N 135.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 14.0N 139.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 16.5N 149.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018\n\nAlthough Hector appeared to be disrupted by moderate northeasterly\nshear earlier this evening, its satellite presentation is generally\nback on the upswing. A WindSat pass around 0213 UTC revealed that\nthe tiny mid-level eye of the hurricane was still intact, and this\nfeature has at times been apparent once again in longwave and\nshortwave IR imagery. The initial intensity has been set at 90 kt\nbased on the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.\n\nEven though the shear no longer appears to be a significant\ninhibiting factor, marginal sea surface temperatures and mid-level\nhumidity could still be limiting factors for the intensity of\nHector. All of the intensity guidance indicates that little change\nin intensity will occur over the next 24-36 hours, so only gradual\nstrengthening is forecast. By days 2 and 3, the hurricane will be\nmoving over warmer waters once again, so some additional\nstrengthening seems likely at that time. This scenario is supported\nby the dynamical intensity models, all of which depict Hector as a\nstrong major hurricane. The statistical guidance notably shows\ngradual weakening during this period, so confidence in this part of\nthe forecast is low. By 96 h, Hector is expected to move over\ncooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so steady weakening is\nforecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory and still favors the dynamical model solutions.\n\nThe initial motion is now 270/10 kt.  No significant changes have\nbeen made to the track forecast. Hector is expected to be steered\nwestward by a large subtropical ridge for the next few days. A turn\ntoward the west-northwest is anticipated early next week as a large\ndeep-layer trough over the northern Pacific weakens the ridge. There\nis still a large amount of spread in the global models regarding the\nforward speed of Hector as it begins to turn west-northwestward.\nDespite the large spread, the consensus has not changed much, so the\nnew NHC track forecast lies practically on top of the previous\nforecast, and remains close to the consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 14.0N 127.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 14.0N 129.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 14.0N 131.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 14.0N 133.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 13.9N 135.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 14.5N 140.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 16.5N 150.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 AM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Hector has degraded over the past\nseveral hours, with only occasional hints of an eye in the latest\nimagery.  More notably, an AMSR2 microwave pass at 0945Z shows a\nsecondary eyewall structure beginning, with a ring of convection\nnoted at about a 30 n mi radius.  All these data indicate that\nHector has weakened, so the initial wind speed is conservatively\nreduced to 80 kt, near or just above the latest Dvorak estimates.\n\nThe current northeasterly shear is forecast to abate by the\nnumerical models during the next 12 hours, which would normally lead\nto a restrengthening of Hector.  However, the secondary eyewall\nformation throws a wrinkle into the forecast, since that process\nusually takes longer than that amount of time.  As a compromise,\ngradual intensification is shown starting tomorrow, with a small\nuptick on Sunday as Hector reaches warmer waters in a light-shear\nenvironment. The HWRF and HMON still show Hector becoming a major\nhurricane, so it is too soon to abandon that forecast.   The new\nforecast is a blend of the latest corrected-consensus guidance and\nthe previous forecast, resulting in about a 10-kt reduction from the\nlast NHC prediction.  Slow weakening is shown at the end of the\nforecast due to cooler SSTs and potential entrainment of drier\nmid-level air.\n\nThe initial motion remains 270/10 kt.   A large subtropical\nridge should steer the hurricane westward for the next couple of\ndays, then a weakness in the ridge develops, which should cause a\nmore west-northwestward track.  The model guidance suite is a little\nslower than yesterday, about 1 or 2 kt overall.  While that doesn't\nsound like much, over the course of a forecast that could change\nthe final cyclone position by a few degrees, so it is meaningful.\nIn this particular case, a slower solution turns Hector to\nthe west-northwest earlier in the forecast, since the hurricane\nfeels the developing weakness to the north-northeast sooner.  The\nnew NHC track forecast follows the trend of the model consensus and\nis adjusted slightly to the north.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 14.1N 128.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 14.2N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 14.2N 132.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 14.1N 134.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 16.3N 146.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 17.0N 152.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Hector is re-strengthening.  The eye\nhas cleared out again on visible imagery, with an increase in\ndeep convection in the eyewall.  Perhaps this shouldn't be a\nsurprise because of Hector's small size, since these systems\nare known to fluctuate up and down rapidly.  The initial intensity\nis set to 90 kt, between the 75 kt SATCON from CIMSS and a 102 kt\nestimate from SAB.  The large-scale environment would seem to favor\nsome intensification of Hector during the next couple of days, with\nSSTS of 27-27.5C, light shear, and moderate levels of mid-level\nmoisture forecast.  The new NHC forecast favors the dynamical models\nover the more statistical-based guidance and shows steady\nstrengthening. This should be considered a low-confidence forecast\ndue to the divergent guidance and the small size of Hector.  At the\nend of the forecast, some weakening is shown due to increasing\ndryness in the mid-levels and a potential increase in shear.\n\nThe initial motion remains 270/10 kt.  There has been no change to\nthe synoptic steering pattern.  A large subtropical ridge should\npush the hurricane westward for the next couple of days.  Due to a\nweakness in the ridge in 2 or 3 days, Hector is forecast to gain\nsome latitude in the long range.  Model guidance has been\noscillating northward and southward with the forecast in the Central\nPacific, with the latest guidance a little faster and farther south.\nThe NHC forecast is shifted in that direction, but not as far south\nas the new model consensus.\n\nThere is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions\nof the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too\nsoon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could\noccur.  This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to\nensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For additional\ninformation on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii,\nplease products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in\nHonolulu.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 14.1N 129.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 14.1N 131.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 14.1N 133.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 14.1N 135.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 14.2N 137.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 15.2N 142.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 16.2N 148.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 PM PDT Fri Aug 03 2018\n\nHector has continued to quickly strengthen since the last advisory,\nwith the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the\neyewall cooling to near -80C.  Satellite intensity estimates from\nTAFB and SAB were 102 kt near 00Z, and given the increasing\norganization since that time the initial intensity is increased to\n105 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 275/10.  There is again little change to\nthe track forecast philosophy, as a large subtropical ridge to the\nnorth of the hurricane should steer Hector generally westward\nduring the forecast period.  Due to a weakness in the ridge, the\nhurricane is forecast to gain some latitude from 36-96 h.  While the\nguidance agrees with this scenario, there is a significant amount of\nspread between the GFS and NAVGEM on the north side of the guidance\nenvelope and the UKMET and ECMWF on the south side.  The consensus\nmodels are in the center of the envelope, and the new forecast is\nclose to these in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus.\nThe new forecast is little changed from the previous track.\n\nRecent satellite microwave data show that Hector is developing an\nouter eyewall, which suggests the hurricane should undergo an\neyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so.  This makes it\na little unclear how long the current intensification will last.\nThe intensity forecast will show a little more strengthening during\nthe next 12 hr followed by little change in strength through 36 h.\nThe HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models show a little more\nintensification at 48-60 h, and the official forecast follows suit.\nAfter that time, while Hector should remain in a light-shear,\nwarm-water environment, entrainment of drier air should lead to a\ngradual weakening of the cyclone.  Overall, the new intensity\nforecast lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.\n\nThere is the potential for Hector to bring some impacts to portions\nof the Hawaiian Islands by the middle of next week, but it is too\nsoon to specify the magnitude of the impacts or where they could\noccur.  This is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to\nensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For additional\ninformation on any potential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii,\nplease refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office\nin Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 14.2N 130.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 14.3N 132.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 14.2N 134.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 14.2N 136.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 14.5N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 16.5N 156.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018\n\nHector has maintained an impressive satellite presentation so far\nthis morning.  The clear eye of the major hurricane is surrounded by\na ring of cloud tops colder than -75 deg C and its outflow has\nbecome well established in all quadrants. Recent satellite intensity\nestimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT are in good agreement\nand support an initial intensity of 105 kt.\n\nThe hurricane will remain in a favorable environment for the next 48\nto 72 h, so the NHC forecast keeps Hector as a fairly steady-state\nmajor hurricane, close to the HWRF model. In reality, while recent\nSSMIS and AMSU microwave data do not suggest that another eyewall\nreplacement cycle is imminent, it would not be surprising if one did\noccur sometime in the next couple of days, causing the cyclone to at\nleast briefly weaken.  Hector's small size could also make it\nparticularly prone to short-term fluctuations in intensity, up or\ndown, like the one observed yesterday. By day 4, Hector is forecast\nto move over somewhat cooler SSTs, and into a drier environment, so\ngradual weakening is anticipated. Confidence in this portion of the\nforecast is fairly low since there large spread in the intensity\nguidance.\n\nHector has continued to move steadily westward, and the initial\nmotion estimate is 270/10 kt.  A large subtropical ridge to the\nnorth should steer the hurricane generally westward through the\nentire forecast period.  There is still uncertainty as to how much\nlatitude Hector will gain in the 2 to 4 day time frame due to a\nslight weakness in the ridge, however the spread of the track\nguidance has generally decreased since yesterday. The official\ntrack forecast has been nudged very slightly northward, in line with\nthe latest consensus guidance, but overall is very similar to the\nprevious advisory.\n\nThere is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian\nIslands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify\nthe magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur.  This is a\ngood time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have\ntheir hurricane plan in place.  For additional information on any\npotential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to\nproducts issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at\nhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 14.3N 131.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 14.3N 133.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 14.5N 135.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 14.7N 137.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 15.0N 140.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 16.0N 145.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 16.5N 151.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 17.0N 157.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 AM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018\n\nThere have been some subtle changes in Hector during the past\nseveral hours with satellite imagery indicating a slight disruption\nof the eyewall convective pattern.  This appears to be due to a\nslowly evolving eyewall cycle, which can only be readily seen by\nhigh-resolution microwave data such as AMSR2, due to Hector's\nsmall size.  Intensity estimates remain virtually the same, so the\nwind speed is held at 105 kt.\n\nDue the eyewall cycle, future intensity changes are harder to\npredict.  Since Hector is forecast to remain in a favorable\nlarge-scale environment, albeit with marginal SSTs, little overall\nchange in strength is indicated during the next couple of days.\nHector's small size could also make it prone to short-term\nfluctuations in intensity, up or down, like the one observed\nyesterday. In about 3 days, Hector is forecast to move over somewhat\ncooler SSTs and into a drier environment, so gradual weakening is\nshown.  Little change was made to the previous NHC wind speed\nprediction, near or just above the model consensus.\n\nHector is locked into a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large\nsubtropical ridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally\nwestward throughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually\ngaining some latitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the\nridge.  Overall the model guidance is in much better agreement than\nyesterday, and only cosmetic changes were made to previous track\nforecast.\n\nThere is the potential for Hector to affect portions of the Hawaiian\nIslands by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to specify\nthe magnitude of any impacts or where they could occur.  This is a\ngood time for everyone in the Hawaiian Islands to ensure they have\ntheir hurricane plan in place.  For additional information on any\npotential local impacts from Hector in Hawaii, please refer to\nproducts issued by the NWS Weather Forecast Office in Honolulu at\nhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 14.2N 132.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 14.2N 134.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 14.4N 136.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 14.7N 138.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 16.1N 147.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 16.6N 153.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 17.0N 158.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the small eye of Hector has grown\nlarger over the past several hours, with a rapid axisymmetrization\nof the eyewall convection.  It seems that the eyewall cycle has\ncompleted itself rather quickly, with one distinct eyewall now\nnoted.  Dvorak estimates are on the rise again, and the latest\ninitial wind speed is set to 110 kt, which is a blend of the latest\nsatellite estimates. While there has been no scatterometer data\nduring the past day or so, the microwave data show that Hector has\ngrown in size, so the initial wind radii have been expanded,\nalthough are smaller than the latest CIMSS and CSU/CIRA estimates.\n\nHector appears to be in the process of becoming an annular\nhurricane, with little outer banding and a fairly symmetric inner\ncore.  This subset of hurricanes is known to occur under moderate\nSSTs below 28.5C, with light easterly shear and no trough\ninteractions.  The bottom line for the intensity forecast is that\nthese conditions are likely to persist near Hector for the next few\ndays, and intensity guidance is known to have a low bias for annular\nhurricanes.  The new intensity forecast is raised from the previous\none, and is near or above the guidance, showing only a slow demise\nover the central Pacific as environmental conditions gradually\ndeteriorate.\n\nHector continues a westward motion of 270/10 kt. A large subtropical\nridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward\nthroughout the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some\nlatitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge.  By 96\nhours, most of the guidance shows a more due-westward motion south\nof the Hawaiian Islands.  The only significant change from the past\nadvisory is a slightly slower forward speed for the first couple of\ndays.\n\nWhile the official forecast track continues to lie south of the\nHawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts\nmight occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long\nrange.  This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian\nIslands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For\nadditional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in\nHawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast\nOffice in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 14.2N 133.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 14.3N 135.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 14.8N 139.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 15.3N 142.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 16.3N 148.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 17.0N 160.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n400 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the disturbance located over the far\neastern Pacific has become significantly better organized\nthroughout the day, with the formation of a well-defined low\npressure center and deep convection organized in a distinct curved\nband.  Based on these criteria, the system is being designated as a\ntropical depression, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt in\naccordance with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\n\nBecause the system has congealed so quickly, the initial motion is\nuncertain but estimated to be 285/11 kt.  The cyclone's future\nmotion will ultimately be dictated by a large mid-tropospheric\nridge to its north and its proximity to another disturbance located\nabout 450 n mi to the west.  A west-northwestward motion at a\nnearly constant speed is expected during the next 2-3 days due to\nthe ridge.  After that time, the cyclone could begin to slingshot\naround the northern side of the larger weather system to its west.\nMany of the track models are not handling the depression very well;\nthe GFS barely depicts a surface low from the get-go, and the HWRF\ndoes not appear to be accounting sufficiently for the possibility of\nbinary interaction.  As a result, the NHC official track forecast\nmatches the consensus of the ECMWF and UKMET, the only two models\nwhich appear to have a decent grasp on the situation.\n\nAlthough the depression will be moving over very warm waters of\n29-30 degrees Celsius over the next 2-3 days, the upper-level wind\nenvironment may not be ideal due to possible outflow from the larger\ndisturbance to the west.  As a result, the official intensity\nforecast is not too aggressive and is essentially close to the ICON\nintensity consensus.  Even though the ECMWF and UKMET were used for\nthe track forecast, the two models disagree on the cyclone's\nultimate demise.  The ECMWF has the system absorbed by the other\ndisturbance by day 4, while the UKMET keeps it distinct and holds it\njust beyond the forecast period.  As a compromise, the official\nforecast shows dissipation or absorption by day 5, but the\nconfidence in this forecast is low.\n\nBased on the forecast, tropical-storm-force winds are expected to\nremain offshore the coast of Mexico.  However, only a slight\ndeviation in the forecast track or an increase in size could bring\nthose winds closer to the coast, and interests along the southern\nand southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the\ndepression.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 12.4N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 12.9N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 13.6N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 14.3N 100.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 15.3N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 PM PDT Sat Aug 04 2018\n\nHector has the textbook appearance of a major hurricane in satellite\nimagery this evening, as it is maintaining a well-defined 10 nm\nwide eye inside a central dense overcast.  Satellite intensity\nestimates are mostly near 115 kt, and based on these estimates that\nwill be the initial intensity for this advisory.  The most notable\nchange since the last advisory has been an increase in convection\nin an outer band that now mostly surrounds the CDO.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/10.  There is little change to the\nforecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  A large subtropical\nridge to the north should steer the hurricane generally westward\nthrough the forecast period, with Hector gradually gaining some\nlatitude on Sunday and beyond due to a weakness in the ridge.  By\n72-96 h, most of the guidance shows a more westward motion south of\nthe Hawaiian Islands.  Based on slight shifts in the consensus\nmodels, the new forecast track is nudged a little to the north of\nthe previous track through 72 h, and it is similar to the previous\ntrack after that time.  It should be noted that there remains some\nspread in the dynamical models as Hector approaches Hawaii, with\nthe NAVGEM, HWRF, and GFS to the north of the center of the\nguidance envelope and the ECMWF to the south.\n\nThe recent increase in outer band convection decreases the short-\nterm chance that Hector will become an annular hurricane.  However,\nthe cyclone will be in the light-shear moderate-SST conditions\nfavorable for such an evolution, and it could occur later in the\nforecast period.  Before this, it is likely that Hector will\nundergo another eyewall replacement with associated fluctuations in\nintensity.  After 36-48 h, the hurricane should start to encounter\na drier airmass and slowly weaken in consequence.  The new NHC\nintensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and it lies\nat the upper end of the intensity guidance.\n\nWhile the official forecast track continues to lie south of the\nHawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts\nmight occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long\ntime ranges.  This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian\nIslands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For\nadditional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in\nHawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast\nOffice in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 14.3N 134.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 14.5N 136.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 14.8N 138.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 15.3N 141.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 15.8N 144.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 16.5N 150.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 17.0N 156.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 17.5N 161.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 04 2018\n\nAfter having a somewhat impressive satellite presentation earlier\ntoday, the final GOES-16 visible images showed what appeared to be\nthe cyclone's low-level center popping out from the northwestern\nedge of the convective canopy. Since that time, the remaining\nconvection south and east of the center has become less organized,\napparently due to enhanced wind shear associated with a linear band\nof convection to the northwest of the cyclone.\n\nThis structural degradation of the system further complicates what\nwas already a low-confidence forecast due to the depression\ninteracting with the developing system located to its west. The 18Z\nGFS doesn't have much of a representation of the depression, and it\nis quickly lost in the model integration. The latest HWRF fields\nshow the vortex being absorbed into the circulation of the\ndisturbance to the west after 24 hours, and the HMON shows the\nsystem dissipating in 2 to 3 days. On the other hand, the 12Z\nruns of the ECMWF and UKMET maintain the depression into days 4 and\n5, respectively. In an effort to maintain some continuity with the\nprevious forecast while acknowledging the current trends, the new\nintensity forecast still shows some strengthening but at a slower\nrate given that the upper-level winds appear to be winning out so\nfar over the warm SSTs. The official forecast carries the tropical\ncyclone through 72 hours with dissipation shown at day 4, but it\nwould not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated much sooner than\nindicated here.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat more confident 295/10\ngiven that the center was exposed right around 00Z. The track\nforecast reasoning has not changed, as the small cyclone should be\nsteered west-northwestward by a large ridge to its north and the\naforementioned disturbance to the west, which the model guidance\nsuggests will strengthen quickly during the next couple of days.\nThe new NHC forecast is a bit to the right of the previous one and\nis close to a blend of the ECMWF and UKMET models.\n\nBased on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected\nto remain offshore the coast of Mexico. However, given the low\nconfidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,\ninterests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should\nmonitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or\nthe cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 13.0N  95.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 13.4N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 14.2N  99.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 15.1N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nHector has maintained a well-defined, 10-nmi-diameter eye inside a\ngradually shrinking central dense overcast. Satellite intensity\nestimates at 0600Z from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of 102\nkt, while UW-CIMSS ADT raw estimates have been near 100 kt. However,\nmore recent infrared satellite images indicate intensity estimates\njust below 115 kt, so the advisory intensity of 110 kt is based on\na blend of the available estimates with more weight placed on\nrecent IR trends.\n\nThe initial motion remains 275/10 kt. A large, deep-layer ridge to\nthe north of Hector is expected to steer the hurricane westward for\nthe next 24 h or so, followed by a modest poleward 'stair-step' in\nthe track through 72 h due to a dissipating frontal trough pushing\nsouthward and becoming stationary northeast of the Hawaiian Islands,\nwhich should weaken the low-level ridge.  After that time, however,\nthe surface trough is forecast to weaken, allowing the ridge to\nbuild back across the Islands, forcing Hector back onto a more\nwesterly course on days 4 and 5. More weakening of the ridge in\n48-72 hours has resulted in yet another northward shift in the\nguidance envelope, with the HWRF and HMON models bringing Hector\nwithin 60 nmi of the Big Island on day 4. The new NHC forecast track\nhas been shifted slightly northward as a result, but lies just a tad\nsouth of the consensus models out of respect for the reliable ECMWF\nmodel, which is the southernmost of all of the global and regional\nmodels.\n\nOuter banding features have become less evident since the previous\nadvisory, and with Hector moving into an increasingly drier airmass,\nthe chances of Hector evolving into an annular hurricane are\nincreasing in the longer term. Although the hurricane will be\nembedded within a light vertical wind shear environment, marginal\nSSTs and a much drier airmass characterized by mid-level humidity\nvalues less than 40 percent are expected to produce a slow weakening\ntrend throughout the forecast period. The official intensity\nforecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely\nfollows the intensity consensus models HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN, which\nall show steady weakening.\n\nWhile the official forecast track continues to lie south of the\nHawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts\nmight occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long\ntime ranges.  This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian\nIslands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For\nadditional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in\nHawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast\nOffice in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 14.4N 135.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 14.6N 137.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 15.0N 139.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 15.6N 142.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 16.2N 145.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 16.9N 151.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 17.2N 157.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 17.7N 162.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n400 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nConvection associated with the depression has increased through the\nearly morning, but the system still appears to be sheared from the\nnorth. A pair of ASCAT passes between 03Z and 04Z revealed that the\ncenter of the depression is elongated and has reformed to the south,\ncloser to the convection. The maximum believable winds in the ASCAT\ndata were around 30 kt, and the initial intensity has been set at\nthat value.\n\nLittle change has been made to the track or intensity forecast,\nhowever confidence is low. The global and regional dynamical models\nall forecast that a disturbance to the west will develop later today\nand quickly become the dominant cyclone. This should cause the\ndepression to dissipate as it becomes entangled in the other\nsystem's larger circulation. However, there is little agreement\namong the models as to when or where this will occur. On one hand,\nthe GFS continues to insist that the depression will dissipate later\nthis morning, while the UKMET shows two distinct cyclones through 96\nhours. Further complicating matters, the close proximity of the two\ncyclones is affecting the trackers used to obtain track and\nintensity information from the dynamical models, and most of the\ndynamical tracker output can not be considered representative,\nespecially at 48 h and beyond.\n\nAssuming the depression persists for at least a couple more days,\nthe ECMWF and HWRF models appear to be the best compromise\nsolutions, with both showing the depression accelerating\nnorthwestward between the disturbance to the west and a mid-level\nridge to the east, before dissipating in 48-72 h. The NHC track\nforecast therefore leans most heavily on a blend of these models\nand the previous forecast track. The intensity forecast is based\nprimarily on the statistical models, since the dynamical tracker\noutput appears to be unrepresentative of the actual forecasts.\nAlthough the official forecast conservatively maintains the\ndepression for 72 h, the cyclone could dissipate much sooner than\ncurrently indicated.\n\nBased on the forecast, any tropical-storm-force winds are expected\nto remain offshore the coast of Mexico.  However, given the low\nconfidence in both the track and intensity of the depression,\ninterests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should\nmonitor its progress in case the track shifts closer to the coast or\nthe cyclone strengthens and grows larger than forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 13.0N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 14.6N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 16.0N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 17.5N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 20.0N 111.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 AM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nHector continues to maintain a 10-15 n mi wide eye surrounded by a\nring of -60 to -70 degrees Celsius cloud tops.  The eye has become\nslightly less distinct this morning and recent microwave data\nsuggest that an eyewall replacement cycle could be occurring.  A\n1111 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass shows a double eyewall structure\nwith the inner eyewall open to the southwest.  The various\nsubjective and objective satellite estimates are between 102-110\nkt, and the initial wind speed is kept near the upper-end of these\nestimates for now.\n\nThe hurricane is moving westward or 275/10 kt.  A westward to\nwest-northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so as\nHector is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The ridge is\nforecast to strengthen north of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week\nwhich should cause the hurricane to move on a general westward\ntrack throughout most of the remainder of the forecast period.\nWhile all of the dynamical models are in agreement on the overall\nscenario there is a fairly typical amount of cross-track spread with\nthe ECMWF along the southern edge of the guidance envelope and the\nHMON and GFS along the northern side.  The updated NHC track\nforecast is close to the latest consensus aids, and little overall\nchange to the previous forecast was required.\n\nHector is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and within a low shear\nenvironment for the next couple of days, and it is possible for some\nfluctuations in intensity to occur as the result of eyewall\nreplacements.  By 48 h, the hurricane is predicted to encounter some\ndrier mid-level air which is forecast to cause gradual weakening\nafter that time.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is a little\nabove the statistical guidance, closest to the HCCA and FSSE\nintensity models.\n\nWhile the official forecast track continues to lie south of the\nHawaiian Islands, it is too soon to determine what kind of impacts\nmight occur in the state, since track errors can be large at long\ntime ranges.  This remains a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian\nIslands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For\nadditional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in\nHawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast\nOffice in Honolulu at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 14.4N 136.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 14.6N 138.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 15.7N 144.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 16.3N 147.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 16.8N 153.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 17.2N 158.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 17.8N 164.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nLatest visible satellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone\nis gradually becoming better organized.  The center is estimated to\nbe on the northern side of a small circular area of deep\nconvection, with a developing band of convection over the southern\nsemicircle of the circulation.  The initial intensity is set at 30\nkt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and\nSAB.\n\nSince the center is still not easy to locate, the initial motion is\na rather uncertain 290/10 kt.  The primary steering mechanisms for\nthe system are a mid-level ridge to the north and a developing\ncyclone to the west.  It is not clear just how much interaction\nwill occur between the two cyclones, and it is likely that some\nof the model vortex tracks are not representative in the 2-3 day\ntime frame.  The forecast track is somewhat north of the previous\none but near the southern side of the guidance envelope.  This is\nclose to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track.\n\nThe GFS and ECMWF global model predictions indicate that the\ncirculation to the west of Eleven-E will become dominant.  In\nfact, the GFS indicates that this circulation will absorb the\ntropical cyclone within a day or so.  The ECMWF indicates that this\nabsorption will occur several days later, and the official forecast\ncalls for dissipation in 3-4 days.  If the western circulation does\nnot become the dominant system, then Eleven-E could strengthen more\nthan indicated here, as shown by some of the other guidance.\n\nInterest along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico\nshould monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties\nin the forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 13.5N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 14.1N  98.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 15.3N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 16.9N 103.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 18.3N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 20.5N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nHector continues to exhibit an impressive satellite presentation. A\n1559 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass suggests that Hector likely\ncompleted an eyewall replacement since this morning, with the eye\nbecoming better defined.  Both conventional satellite imagery and\nthe aforementioned microwave data show little in the way of banding\noutside of the symmetric CDO, suggesting that Hector has some\ncharacteristics of an annular hurricane.  Subjective satellite\nintensity estimates are T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the\nlatest UW/CIMSS objective estimates are up to T6.1 or 117 kt. As\nresult, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt, making Hector\na category 4 hurricane once again.\n\nHector is forecast to remain within very low vertical wind shear\nwhile it traverses SSTs of around 27C during much of the forecast\nperiod.  However, the hurricane will be moving into an area of\ndrier mid-level air which is likely to induce some weakening later\nin the forecast period.  Given Hector's annular-like structure,\nthe NHC intensity forecast shows a more gradual rate of weakening\nsince annular hurricanes tend to be more stable and weaken more\nslowly.  The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the\nHFIP corrected consensus model, HCCA.\n\nThe hurricane continues moving westward or 275/11 kt. There is\nbeen no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Hector is forecast\nto move westward to west-northwestward during the next day or so to\nthe south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected\nto strengthen to the north of the Hawaiian Islands by mid-week\nwhich is expected to turn the hurricane westward.  The models\ncontinue to be in good agreement on this general scenario but some\ncross-track spread remains.  The NHC forecast is once again near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope, close to the various consensus\nmodels.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV aircraft will be releasing dropsondes as it\ncircumnavigates Hector during its flight to Hawaii to support\nforecast operations over the next few days.  Data from these\ndropsondes should be incorporated into this evening's 0000 UTC\ndynamical models.\n\nWhile the official forecast track continues to lie south of the\nHawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the\nforecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on\nthe Hawaiian Islands. It is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian\nIslands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For\nadditional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in\nHawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast\nOffice in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 14.4N 138.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nThe cyclone has continued to become better organized today, with a\nfairly symmetrical shape on geostationary imagery.  Data from a\nrecent ASCAT overpass showed that the center was embedded about in\nthe middle of a small CDO-like feature.  The scatterometer data\nindicated maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and Dvorak classifications from\nTAFB and SAB gave intensity estimates of 35 kt and 45 kt,\nrespectively.  Blending these various estimates yields a current\nintensity of about 40 kt, and the tropical cyclone is thus being\nnamed.  Since the system should be in a warm water and low shear\nenvironment for the next couple of days, some additional\nstrengthening is forecast.  However a strengthening cyclone is\nsituated not far to the west of Ileana.  This larger system is\nforecast by the ECMWF and GFS models to become the dominant cyclone\nin a few days, and cause the tropical storm to dissipate near the\nnorthern side of the larger circulation.  That is the scenario shown\nby the official intensity forecast.\n\nThere is more confidence in the center position than there was\nearlier today, and the estimated initial motion is\nwest-northwestward or 285/9 kt.  Over the next couple of days,\nIleana is likely to move between a mid-level ridge to its north and\nnortheast and the larger cyclonic circulation to its west and\nsouthwest.  The official track forecast is on the southern side of\nthe track guidance envelope.  It is also very close to the latest\nHCCA forecast track.\n\nInterests along the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico\nshould monitor the progress of this system, given the uncertainties\nin the forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 13.6N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 17.9N 104.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nThe low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the\nsouthwest coast of Mexico has become better defined today and the\nassociated deep convection has enough organization to classify the\nsystem as a tropical depression, the twelfth tropical cyclone of the\n2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season.  The initial intensity is\nset at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak satellite intensity\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is northwestward at about 6 kt.  The\ntrack and intensity forecast for the depression is complicated due\nto the close proximity of Tropical Storm Ileana to its\neast-southeast.  Somewhat surprisingly, however, the track guidance\nis in relatively good agreement on a general northwestward motion\naround the western portion of a mid-level ridge over northern\nMexico during the next several days.  Since the depression is larger\nthan Ileana, most of the global models suggest that Ileana will move\naround the northeastern portion of the new tropical cyclone's\ncirculation and weaken and dissipate.  The NHC track forecast is\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope between the slower ECMWF\nsolution, and the faster GFS, HWRF, and HMON tracks.\n\nThe depression is currently over very warm SSTs, within low shear,\nand a moist atmosphere.  These factors suggest that the depression\nwill steadily strengthen and the intensity guidance is quite\naggressive in intensifying the system.  The NHC forecast is slightly\nmore conservative during the first 36 h since the system is still\nquite broad and lacks an inner core.  Regardless, the NHC forecast\nbrings the system to hurricane strength within 36 h, and shows a\npeak intensity of 90 kt in 3 days, which is in agreement with the\nHFIP corrected consensus model.  Cool waters and less favorable\nthermodynamic conditions should lead to steady to rapid weakening\nlate in the forecast period.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 14.6N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-08-06 00:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Special Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n500 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nThis special advisory is to update the initial and forecast\nintensities for Hector.  Satellite data indicate that the hurricane\nhas continued to strengthen during the past 6 h, and the initial\nintensity has increased to at least 120 kt.  Based on this, the\nintensities for the first 36 h of the forecast have been increased.\nThere are no changes to the forecast track, the wind radii, or the\nintensities from 48-120 h.\n\nThe NOAA G-IV aircraft is releasing dropsondes as it circumnavigates\nHector during its flight to Hawaii to support forecast operations\nover the next few days.  Data from these dropsondes should be\nincorporated into this evening's 0000 UTC dynamical models.\n\nWhile the official forecast track continues to lie south of the\nHawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the\nforecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on\nthe Hawaiian Islands. It is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian\nIslands to ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.  For\nadditional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in\nHawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast\nOffice in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0000Z 14.5N 138.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 14.7N 139.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 15.3N 142.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 15.9N 145.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 16.4N 148.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 16.7N 154.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 17.0N 160.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 17.7N 166.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hector Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n800 PM PDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nHector has changed little in organization since the previous special\nadvisory, and the various satellite intensity estimates are in the\n115-125 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity\nremains 120 kt.  The forecast track takes the cyclone over an area\nof cooler water between 24-60 h and into a drier air mass after 60\nh, and based on this the intensity forecast continues the trend of\nthe previous forecast in showing a gradual weakening through the\nforecast period.  There are two caveats to this forecast, however.\nThe first is that Hector will move over warmer water after 60 h, and\nthe HWRF amd LGEM models are suggesting re-intensification could\noccur from 96-120 h.  Second, the environment of light easterly\nshear and moderate sea surface temperatures could allow Hector to\nevolve into an annular hurricane, which would cause it to stay more\nintense than the guidance and the official forecast are indicating.\n\nThe hurricane is starting a northward nudge that the track models\nhave been advertising, and the initial motion is now 280/12.  The\nsubtropical ridge to the north of Hector should steer it\nwest-northwestward with an increase in forward speed for the next\n24-36 h, followed by a more westerly motion to the south of the\nHawaiian Islands for the remainder of the forecast period. Track\nguidance has become less divergent since yesterday, and the new\nforecast track lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.\n\nWhile the official forecast track continues to lie south of the\nHawaiian Islands, only a slight deviation to the north of the\nforecast track would significantly increase potential impacts on the\nHawaiian Islands. Now is a good time for everyone in the Hawaiian\nIslands to ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place. For\nadditional information on any potential local impacts from Hector in\nHawaii, please refer to products issued by the NWS Weather Forecast\nOffice in Honolulu at: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl .\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\nHector.  Future information on this system can be found in Public\nAdvisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning\nat 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO,\nand on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc .\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 14.7N 139.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 15.1N 141.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 15.8N 144.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 16.2N 147.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 16.6N 150.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 17.0N 156.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 17.0N 162.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nA new burst of deep convection developed near the low-level center\nbeginning around 2200 UTC.  A second ASCAT pass earlier this\nafternoon showed winds of 40-45 kt, while SATCON estimates from\nUW-CIMSS were a little above 50 kt.  Given these data, Ileana's\nmaximum winds are estimated to be 45 kt.  The shear is forecast to\nbe on the order of 15 kt, which is not the most ideal environment\nfor strengthening, but the cyclone will also be moving over very\nwarm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius and through a moisture-laden\nenvironment. Nearly all of the intensity models indicate additional\nstrengthening, with some, such as the SHIPS and LGEM models,\nbringing Ileana near or to hurricane strength in a day or so.  On\nthe flip side, the GFS and ECMWF have Ileana opening up into a\ntrough on the northern side of Tropical Storm John in 36-48 hours.\nGiven the large spread in model scenarios, the updated NHC intensity\nforecast is increased only a little from the previous advisory.  A\n48-hour forecast is still provided for continuity, but if the GFS\nand ECMWF are right, the cyclone could dissipate by that time.\n\nIleana is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest with an\ninitial motion of 290/11 kt.  Additional acceleration with a turn\ntoward the northwest is expected over the next day or so as the\ncyclone moves between Tropical Storm John and large-scale ridging\nover Mexico and the southern United States.  The updated NHC track\nforecast is essentially right along the projection from the previous\nadvisory, but it is a little faster to account for the speedier GFS,\nECMWF, and HCCA solutions.\n\nThe forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official\nforecast now graze the coast of southwestern Mexico, and as a\nresult, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm\nWarning from Lazaro Cardenas to Cabo Corrientes.  Even though\nIleana is forecast to dissipate after 48 hours, it is not out of\nthe question that the cyclone could last a little longer, and\ninterests on the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor\nthe progress of the storm.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 14.3N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 15.3N 101.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 17.2N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 19.1N 106.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 20.9N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n900 PM MDT Sun Aug 05 2018\n\nConvection associated with Tropical Depression Twelve-E has\ncontinued to become better organized, although recent microwave\nsatellite data suggest the low-level center is elongated from\nnorthwest to southeast.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and\nSAB have increased to 35 kt, and based on these the depression is\nupgraded to Tropical Storm John.\n\nThe initial motion is 315/7.  A westward-moving mid- to upper-level\ntrough over northern Mexico has weakened the subtropical ridge over\nthe northeastern Pacific, and the large-scale models are in good\nagreement that John will move northwestward at an increasing\nforward speed toward this weakness.  A complicating factor is that\nJohn may interact with Tropical Storm Ileana to the east.  However,\nJohn is much larger than Ileana, and the most likely impact of this\ninteraction is that John could move a little slower than currently\nforecast.  The new forecast track is a little to the north of the\nprevious track after 48 h, but is otherwise similar to the previous\nforecast.  The new track also lies just south of the cluster of\nconsensus models.\n\nJohn is expected to be in an environment of very warm SSTs, low\nshear, and a moist atmosphere through about 60 h.  This environment\nis quite favorable for rapid intensification (RI), as indicated by\nhigh probabilities in the SHIPS RI index, and it is likely that RI\nwill begin as soon as the inner core of the storm becomes better\norganized.  The NHC forecast calls for the storm to become a\nhurricane in 24-36 h and to reach a peak intensity of 95 kt in about\nthree days.  After that, the forecast track takes John over rapidly\ncooling sea surface temperatures, which should cause at least a\nsteady weakening.  The intensity forecast is in best agreement with\nthe intensity consensus.  It should be noted, however, that the\nSHIPS and LGEM models both show more intensification than the\nofficial forecast and make John a major hurricane in about three\ndays.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 14.9N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 26.0N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n400 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nA strong burst of deep convection consisting of some cloud top\ntemperatures of -85 to -90 deg C near the center has developed\nduring the past several hours. A Central Dense Overcast (CDO)\nfeature has developed as a result, and the Acapulco, Mexico, radar\nindicates that a banded eye feature has developed in the center of\nthe CDO. Based on the radar data and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of\nT3.6/57 kt, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.\n\nIleana has begun to accelerate around the eastern periphery of\nrapidly developing Tropical Storm John, and initial motion estimate\nis now 310/15 kt. Little change was made to the previous forecast\ntrack other than to nudge the forecast a little more to the right,\ncloser to Mexico, due to the more eastward initial position based\non the aforementioned radar data. Ileana is expected to continue\nmoving northwestward between Tropical Storm John and a deep-layer\nridge over Mexico. The NHC model guidance remains in good agreement\non this track scenario until dissipation or absorption occurs in\nabout 72 hours, and the new forecast track lies close to the HCCA\nand FSSE consensus track model solutions.\n\nThe shear is forecast to decrease to around 15 kt over the next 24\nhours, and the global model fields actually indicate that the shear\ncould be lower than that since most of the stronger outflow from\nTropical Storm John will remain north of Ileana. Based on the\nexpected lower shear conditions, a very moist atmosphere, SSTs\nnear 30 deg C, and the much improved internal structure noted in\nradar data, Ileana is forecast to become a hurricane within the\nnext 24 hours. The official intensity forecast follows the upward\ntrend of the consensus models FSSE and HCCA, but is a little lower\nand closer to the IVCN intensity consensus model.\n\nThe forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii in the new official\nforecast has been expanded to the northeast based on recent ASCAT\nwind data. Although the core of strongest winds are forecast to\nremain offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight\ndeviation to the right of track and/or strong localized funneling\neffects would bring hurricane-force winds onshore. As a result,\nthe government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch from Punta\nSan Telmo to Playa Perula.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 15.2N 100.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 16.5N 102.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 18.5N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 20.3N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 21.6N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n300 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nThe convective pattern of John has become significantly better\norganized during the past several hours, with a large central dense\novercast forming and cloud top temperatures to -85C.  A 0706Z GPM\nmicrowave pass shows the rapid development of an inner core since\nthe previous pass 6 hours ago, along with impressive curved banding\nfeatures.  A blend of the satellite intensity estimates gave 45 kt\nat 0600 UTC, but given the increase in organization since that time,\nthe advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt.\n\nAll systems are go for the rapid intensification of John in an\nenvironment of very warm SSTs, high mid-level moisture and low wind\nshear.  With the inner core formation, John will likely strengthen\nquickly until it reaches cooler waters after 48 hours. The various\nrapid intensification aids are about as high as they get, roughly 60\nto 90 percent depending on the threshold, increasing the confidence\nin the forecast.   Thus the new NHC wind speed prediction is raised\nfrom the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification through\n48 hours.  It should be noted that even though the NHC forecast is\nrather bullish, the corrected consensus aids, the SHIPS and LGEM\nmodels all show an even higher peak intensity.\n\nThe GPM pass helped set the initial motion at 300/7 kt, somewhat to\nthe left of the previous estimate.  Model guidance remains in fairly\ngood agreement that John should move northwestward soon at an\nincreasing forward speed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge.\nWhile some interaction with TS Ileana is anticipated, the much\nlarger John should dominate, leading to perhaps a temporary\nslowdown.  The latest NHC forecast is shifted to the west in the\nfirst couple of days, following the trend of the model guidance, but\nends up very close to the previous forecast at day 5.  The UKMET is\nsignificantly farther west, perhaps due to it having the two\ntropical cyclones analyzed with nearly the same size, and little\nweight is placed on that model for the official forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 15.1N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 24.5N 119.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nIleana continues to produce very deep convection near its center,\nwith cloud tops colder than -80 deg C.  Microwave imagery and the\nAcapulco radar have shown some eyewall structure, at least at\nmid-levels.  Although conventional Dvorak classifications from TAFB\nand SAB provided intensity estimates of only 45 kt, the advisory\nintensity is kept at 55 kt in better agreement with SATCON estimates\nfrom UW-CIMSS.  Since Ileana will be in a moist, low-shear, and warm\nwater environment, the system is likely to strengthen into a\nhurricane within 12 hours or so, with some additional\nintensification through Tuesday morning.  Thereafter, the influence\nof the much larger circulation of John to the southwest is expected\nto begin having an adverse effect on Ileana.  The system should\nbegin weakening later on Tuesday, and dissipate or become absorbed\nby John on Wednesday. This is the scenario that is depicted by the\nECMWF and GFS global model guidance.\n\nIleana continues to move briskly toward the northwest or about\n310/15 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to move between a\nmid-level ridge and the circulation of John for the next couple of\ndays.  The official track forecast is a little to the left of the\nprevious one but a little north of the latest multi-model consensus.\n\nNo changes to the watches and warnings are required at this time.\nAlthough the core of strongest winds is forecast to remain offshore\nof the coast of southwestern Mexico, only a slight deviation to the\nright of track could bring stronger winds onshore, particularly in\nthe area where the hurricane watch has been posted.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 16.3N 101.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 17.8N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 19.3N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 21.5N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCB\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number   4...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nCorrected to remove the percent symbols in the text\n\nEarly morning visible satellite images and recent microwave data\nshow that John continues to quickly become better organized.\nBanding features now wrap nearly completely around the center, with\nthe development of a fairly symmetric CDO.  One-minute GOES-16\nimagery also show several overshooting convective cloud tops near\nand to the east of the center.  A TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 was\nthe basis of the 1200 UTC intensity of 55 kt, but with the increase\nin organization since that time, and raw objective T-numbers above\n4.0 for the past few hours, the advisory intensity has been\nincreased to 60 kt.\n\nJohn is within a very favorable environment for intensification.\nThe hurricane will be moving over SSTs around 30C, and in a low\nshear and moist environment.  These conditions are expected to\nallow for rapid strengthening during the next day or so.  The SHIPS\nRapid Intensification Index shows a nearly 80 percent chance of RI\nover the the next 24 h, and DTOPS gives an 80 percent chance of a\n40 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h.  Based on these\ndata and the very aggressive guidance, the NHC forecast calls for a\n40 kt increase in strength from 1200 this morning through 1200 UTC\nTuesday. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity that is close\nto the FSSE and HCCA models in 36 to 48 hours.  After that time,\nJohn will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable\nenvironment which is expected to cause rapid weakening.\n\nJohn is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  The tropical\nstorm should turn northwestward and accelerate over the next day or\nso as it is steered around the western portion of a mid-level ridge\nthat is centered over northern Mexico.  As noted in the previous\ndiscussion, some interaction with Ileana is likely, which could\ncause some slow down of the forward speed of John.  However since\nJohn is the larger system, it should remain the dominant tropical\ncyclone.  The latest dynamical model guidance was similar to the\nprevious cycle and no significant change to the NHC forecast was\nrequired. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and\nis close to the HFIP corrected consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n400 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nThere have been significant changes to the forecast reasoning for\nIleana.  Recent satellite imagery suggest that the system is being\nadversely affected by the large circulation of John much sooner\nthan anticipated.  In fact, Ileana is looking more like an outer\nband of John at this time.  Nonetheless, a recent ASCAT overpass\nindicated that Ileana is still a separate system to the\neast-northeast of John and continues to support a current intensity\nof 55 kt.  However given the evolution of Ileana today, the\nprevious NHC short-term intensity forecast is reversed.  Ileana\nis no longer predicted to become a hurricane, and the tropical\ncyclone is likely to dissipate or become absorbed by John's\ncirculation in 24-36 hours. It should be noted that some models,\nsuch as the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF depict Ileana's demise even sooner\nthan that.\n\nSince the cloud pattern of Ileana has become rather disorganized,\nit is difficult to track a center and the initial motion is an\nuncertain 305/15 kt.  The cyclone should move between a mid-level\nridge and the circulation of John until dissipation.  The official\ntrack forecast is a little left of the previous one, but a little to\nthe right of the track model consensus.\n\nThe 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the\nscatterometer data.\n\nThe hurricane watch for the southwest coast of Mexico is\ndiscontinued.  The tropical storm watch for the extreme southern\nBaja California peninsula is also discontinued for Ileana, but a\nwatch for this same general are may soon be required for John.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 17.0N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 18.2N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nJohn has continued to intensify since the previous advisory.\nVisible satellite images continue to indicate an increase in\nbanding and very recent pictures show the formation of a banding\neye.  As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt,\nwhich is based on a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 4.0 and UW/CIMSS\nobjective Dvorak estimates that are close to 65 kt.  John becomes\nthe fifth hurricane of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane\nseason.\n\nJohn is forecast to remain within a very favorable environment for\nstrengthening during the next day or so.  Although some of the\nintensity guidance is not quite as aggressive as this morning, the\nvarious rapid intensification indices still show a high likelihood\nof rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours.  The NHC forecast\nonce again calls for rapid intensification and brings John to major\nhurricane strength within 36 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast\nis near the upper-end of the guidance in best agreement with the\nlatest SHIPS, HCCA, and FSSE models.  After 48 h, John will be\nmoving over much cooler waters and into a less conducive\nthermodynamic environment.  This should result in rapid weakening,\nand John is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.\n\nJohn is moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  The hurricane is\nforecast to move northwestward around the western periphery of a\nmid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days.  Once\nthe system weakens and becomes a more shallow cyclone late in the\nforecast period, it should turn westward in the low-level flow.\nThe overall track envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, with\nthe GFS and HWRF along the eastern edge of the track guidance\nenvelope while the ECMWF and UKMET are along the western side.\nThe new NHC forecast has been adjusted eastward and lies between\nthe ECMWF and the various consensus aids.\n\nDue to the eastward shift in the forecast track and the predicted\nincrease in the size of John, interests in the southern portion of\nthe Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this\nsystem.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 16.0N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nGOES-16 visible satellite imagery and a couple of earlier microwave\nimages indicate that Ileana's cloud pattern has become rather\namorphous during the past several hours, and the distinct low cloud\nelements identified earlier today in visible imagery are no longer\nevident.  Based on the deteriorating satellite presentation, the\ninitial intensity is lowered to 50 kt for this advisory, which is\nstill a little higher than the subjective intensity estimates from\nTAFB and SAB.\n\nThe global and hurricane models are in good agreement with Ileana\ndissipating in less than 24 hours, as a result of larger Hurricane\nJohn's upper tropospheric outflow.  The UKMET, however, maintains\nIleana as a shallow tropical cyclone for a little longer...about 36\nhours prior to dissipation.  The official intensity forecast sides\nwith the model majority solution showing the cyclone either\nbeing absorbed by John, or dissipating in about 24 hours, and is\nalso based on a similar scenario reflected in the LGEM statistical\nintensity model output.\n\nThe initial motion remains a bit unclear, but still appears to be\nnorthwestward and little faster...305/17 kt.  Ileana is forecast to\nmove between Hurricane John to the west and a deep-layer ridge\nextending over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico until the\ncyclone dissipates.  The NHC forecast is again nudged slightly to\nthe right of the previous advisory and is close to the TVCN model\nconsensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 18.0N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 19.3N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 20.8N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n900 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nJohn's satellite presentation has not changed significantly during\nthe past few hours. The tops warmed up significantly earlier, but a\nnew convective curved band is developing around the eye as we\nspeak. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale and\non this basis, the initial intensity is keep at 65 kt in this\nadvisory. The environment is quite favorable for intensification,\nand although the intensity guidance is not as aggressive as earlier,\nit still shows a strengthening hurricane, and this is reflected in\nthe NHC forecast. Beyond 3 days, John should be moving over cooler\nwaters, and rapid weakening should then begin.  John is very likely\nto become a remnant low by day 5 or perhaps earlier.\n\nJohn continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 7 kt,\nsteered by the flow around a strong subtropical ridge extending\nfrom the western United States westward across the Pacific. Since\nthe steering pattern is well established, track models are tightly\nclustered increasing the confidence in the forecast. NHC keeps the\nhurricane in the middle of the guidance envelope very close to\nthe HCCA corrected consensus and is not very different from the\nprevious one.\n\nThe core of John with its strongest winds is forecast to remain well\noff the Baja California Peninsula, but having said that, any\ndeviation to the right of the track or an unexpected increase in the\narea of tropical force winds, could bring tropical-storm-force\nwinds to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore,\ninterests in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula\nshould monitor the progress of this hurricane.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 16.7N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 27.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-07 05:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018\n\nMicrowave data from this evening indicate that a small low pressure\narea has formed within an area of disturbed weather (Invest 94E)\nthat we have been monitoring for several days.  The data indicate\nthat the well-defined low is embedded within a growing ball of\nconvection, along with tight banding near the center. The initial\nwind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with a special 0400 UTC\nclassification from TAFB.  Gradual strengthening is forecast over\nthe next couple of days until the system passes over cooler waters.\nMost of the guidance is indicating only slow intensification due to\nnortheasterly shear, although some caution should be advised since\nthe depression is fairly small.\n\nAn uncertain estimate of initial motion is 270/9 kt.  The\nsubtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer the system\nwestward for the next day or two, then the forecast gets tricky.\nThe GFS-based guidance is showing Hurricane John weakening the\nridge enough to cause a northward or north-northeastward turn of the\nnew tropical cyclone by Thursday, while the ECMWF and its ensemble\nshow the system avoiding any binary interaction with John, and\ncontinuing west-northwestward. With such widely divergent guidance,\nthe first forecast will stay close to the consensus, and perhaps\nlater guidance can nail down the specifics of any poleward turn.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nInfrared and microwave satellite imagery suggest that Ileana's\nlow-level circulation may have been disrupted by the Sierra\nMadre mountain range when the cyclone passed just offshore of the\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico and likely opened up into a wave\nbetween 0000-0400 UTC. However, a strong burst of convection\ncontaining a large area of cloud tops colder than -80 deg C has\nredeveloped just northeast of the alleged center during the past\ncouple of hours, which could help regenerate a new low-level center.\n Thus the system is still being considered to be a tropical cyclone\nuntil more conclusive data to the contrary become available. The\ninitial intensity of 45 kt is based on a Dvorak satellite current\nintensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a faster and uncertain 295/20 kt.\nIleana or its remnants are forecast to maintain a fairly quick\nwest-northwestward motion around or within the northeastern and\nnorthern portions of Hurricane John's outer circulation, with the\nlatter system currently located only about 200 nmi southwest of the\nmuch smaller Ileana. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.\n\nThe global and regional hurricane models remain in good agreement on\nIleana dissipating in less than 18 hours, due in large part from\nstrong vertical wind created by the northwesterly outflow associated\nwith nearby Hurricane John. Until dissipation occurs, however, only\nslight weakening is expected due to the recent increase in deep\nconvection near and to the northeast of the alleged center, and also\nas a result of Ileana's relatively fast forward speed of 20 kt.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 19.4N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 20.6N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that John has resumed its intensification\ntrend, with a ragged eye showing up in the night-visible and other\nchannels.  Dvorak estimates are between 70-90 kt, so 80 kt is used\nas the initial wind speed.  John has another day or so to intensify\nin a low-shear, warm-water environment before it rapidly crosses\ninto cooler waters.  The hurricane has been intensifying at a rate\nof about 30 kt/24 hours, so this trend was heavily weighted in the\nlatest forecast given the continuation of the conducive environment.\nAll of the guidance show a pretty steep drop in intensity as the\nhurricane quickly enters cool waters, with rapid weakening likely.\nThe latest forecast is close to the previous one, but shows John\nbecoming post-tropical by day 4 when it will be over 21C waters.\n\nJohn continues to move northwestward, now at about 8 kt.  The\nhurricane should move in that general direction but faster over the\nnext 3 days under the influence of a strengthening subtropical\nridge.  As John weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward,\nsteered more by the low-level ridge.  Guidance remains tightly\nclustered and no significant change was made to the previous\nforecast track.\n\nThe dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula.  However, an eastward shift of the\nforecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer\nwind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds\nto portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests\nin the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should\nmonitor the progress of this hurricane.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 17.3N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 27.2N 123.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  12/0600Z 27.0N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the cyclone has rapidly become better\norganized, with a distinct curved band pattern now apparent. A\ntimely scatterometer pass indicated peak winds of 40-45 kt, so the\ninitial wind speed is set to 45 kt.  Continued intensification is\nforecast while the storm remains over warm waters with light or\nmoderate shear. While there is no guidance indicating anything but\nslow strengthening, some caution should be advised since Kristy has\nalready overachieved.  The wind speed forecast is raised from the\nprevious one, and is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.\nWeakening should start by day 4 as the storm moves over cooler\nwaters.\n\nKristy appears to be moving at 265/10 kt. Model guidance is in\ndecent agreement on a subtropical ridge holding steady to the north\nof the cyclone for a day or so, causing a westward motion.  After\nthat time, the agreement becomes quite poor due to large\nuncertainties over how fast the ridge erodes, partially due to the\ncirculation of Hurricane John.  The GFS shows a fast erosion and a\nturn to the north and northeast of Kristy, while the ECMWF keeps the\nridge in place, leading to the models being a \"mere\" 1200 miles\napart on the day-5 forecast of Kristy.  Interestingly, the model\nconsensus didn't change much, so I've decided to keep the forecast\nbasically the same, with the caveat that this is obviously a\nlow-confidence prediction.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.3N 125.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 14.3N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 14.5N 128.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 15.6N 130.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n1100 AM AST Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nThe non-tropical low that NHC has been tracking over the North\nAtlantic for the past few days has developed subtropical\ncharacteristics and has been upgraded to subtropical storm status.\nThe tropical-storm-force winds associated with Debby are well\nremoved from the center as indicated by a recent ASCAT pass and are\noccurring within a cyclonically curved band of moderate convection.\nAlthough transition to a tropical cyclone is possible, no\nsignificant strengthening is anticipated since the cyclone will soon\nbe moving over cool water and become fully embedded within a larger\nmid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Debby is expected to\ndissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355\ndegrees at 14 kt. The subtropical storm should continue on this\ngeneral track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24\nhours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,\nwhich will eventually absorb Debby.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 38.9N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 41.0N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 42.7N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 44.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Ileana","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP112018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Ileana Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112018\n900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nEarly morning GOES-16 one-minute satellite imagery confirms that\nthe small circulation of Ileana has dissipated within the northern\nportion of Hurricane John's larger circulation.  As a result, this\nis the final NHC advisory on Ileana.  The remnants of the tropical\ncyclone are likely producing an area of tropical-storm-force\nwinds that should gradually decrease in intensity as it rotates\naround the northern and northwestern portion of John during the\nnext few hours.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 20.5N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nVisible and infrared satellite images have continued to show the\nragged eye of John this morning, but the surrounding convective\ncloud tops have become more symmetric and cooled since the previous\nadvisory.  The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from\nTAFB and SAB were T5.0/90 kt, which support increasing the initial\nwind speed to that value.  John has about another 24 hours over\nwarm water in which to intensify, and the NHC intensity forecast\ncalls for John to attain major hurricane strength later today or\ntonight.  After that time, decreasing SSTs and a more stable\nenvironment should lead to steady or rapid weakening, and John is\nexpected to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is near the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first\n12 to 24 hours, and then is between the aforementioned models and\nthe intensity consensus thereafter.\n\nJohn is moving northwestward or 320/8 kt.  The track guidance is in\ngood agreement on taking the hurricane northwestward around the\nwestern portion of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.\nOnce John weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system it should\nturn westward in the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is\nnear the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.\n\nThe dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula.  However, an eastward shift of the\nforecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer\nwind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds\nto portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests\nin the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should\nmonitor the progress of this hurricane.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 17.9N 109.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 27.0N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  12/1200Z 27.0N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 AM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Kristy is a little better organized with\nseveral clusters of deep convection.  The Dvorak T-numbers are\nnow 3.0/45 kt, and this data is now in better agreement with the\nearlier ASCAT pass that was mentioned in the previous discussion.\nTherefore, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt.  Kristy is\nwithin a low shear environment, and most of the guidance indicates\ngradual strengthening. The NHC forecast brings Kristy to hurricane\nstatus in a couple of days while the cyclone remains over warm\nwaters. By the end of the forecast period, the circulation will\nbegin to be affected by cooler waters, which should result in\nweakening.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270\ndegrees at 8 kt. The track forecast during the first 24 hours or so\nis fairly straightforward since the cyclone is embedded within\ndeep easterlies. Thereafter, the easterly flow will be interrupted\nby the larger circulation of Hurricane John passing to the north of\nKristy, and the cyclone will most likely turn northward in response.\nThe spread in the guidance becomes large after 24 to 36 hours\nwith the ECMWF model keeping Kristy on a west-northwest path\nwhile the GFS shows a northward motion as Kristy interacts with\nJohn. The NHC forecast is in the middle of these two options and\nvery closely follows the multi-model consensus.  It should be\nnoted that there is low confidence in the long range track forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 13.8N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 13.9N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 14.2N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 14.8N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n500 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nDebby's cloud pattern consists of a cyclonically curved convective\nband wrapping around a large but somewhat vigorous circulation. TAFB\nprovided a subtropical classification of ST2.5, while an earlier\nship located to the east of the center reported 35 kt. These data is\nused to assign the current intensity of the subtropical cyclone.\nAlthough transition to a tropical cyclone is still possible during\nthe next 24 hours, no significant strengthening is anticipated since\nDebby will soon be moving over cool waters and become fully embedded\nwithin a larger mid-latitude trough in a day or so.  Debby is\nforecast to dissipate in about 48 hours or earlier.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 355\ndegrees at 13 kt.  The subtropical storm should continue on this\ngeneral track with a decrease in forward speed for the next 24\nhours or so and then turn to the northeast ahead of the trough,\nwhich will eventually absorb Debby.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 39.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 41.0N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 42.3N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 44.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n300 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nThe eye of John has become more distinct in visible and infrared\nsatellite imagery during the past few hours, however the surrounding\nconvective clouds tops have warmed, and a 1642 UTC AMSU\nmicrowave overpass indicated that the eyewall was open over the\nnorthwestern portion of the circulation.  Although objective Dvorak\nT-numbers have increased to T5.6, subjective estimates from TAFB and\nSAB are unchanged so the initial intensity is kept at 90 kt.  There\nis still an opportunity for John to become a major hurricane tonight\nor early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in a low\nshear environment.  After that time, the hurricane will be moving\nover decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic\nenvironment. These conditions should result in steady to rapid\nweakening and John is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by\nday 4 when it is over SSTs of 20-21C.  There is significant spread\nin the intensity guidance as to how rapid John will spin down.  The\nNHC forecast is a little higher than the ICON consensus model, but\nshows a faster rate of weakening than the statistical guidance.\n\nJohn is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt.  The hurricane should\ncontinue moving northwestward around the western side of a\nmid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next 2-3 days.\nAfter that time, the system should turn westward as it weakens and\ncomes under the influence of the low-level flow.  The track\nguidance remains in excellent agreement and the new NHC track is\nessentially an update of the previous advisory.\n\nAlthough the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast\ntrack or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field\nof the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to\nthe west coast of the peninsula.  In addition, a surge of moisture\naround John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally\nheavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next\ncouple of days.  Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the\nBaja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 18.7N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 19.9N 111.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 23.0N 115.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 24.4N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 26.6N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 27.0N 124.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  12/1800Z 27.0N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nGeostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that Kristy\nhas well-defined curved bands, but the convection in these bands\nhas decreased during the past several hours.  A recent ASCAT pass\nshowed maximum winds of about 40 kt.  Based on that data and Dvorak\nclassifications, the initial intensity is again held at 45 kt.\n\nKristy has been moving just south of due west during the past 12\nhours, and the initial motion estimate is 260/11 kt.  The models\nagree that a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the\nwest-northwest is expected to begin tonight or on Wednesday, but\nthat is about all they agree on for the future track of Kristy.\nThere remains significant spread in the models about how the storm\nwill interact with Hurricane John to its northeast.  The GFS\ncontinues to show Kristy being pulled northward and then\nnortheastward into the outer circulation of John. On the other hand,\nthe ECMWF has been consistent in showing little interaction between\nthe tropical cyclones, and keeps Kristy moving on a westward or\nwest-northwestward path.  The NHC official track forecast lies\nbetween these scenarios and is close to the recent run of the UKMET\nmodel.  This forecast has been adjusted to the north and east of the\nprevious one to get closer to the middle of the guidance envelope.\nIt should be noted that the track forecast is of low confidence\ngiven the very different model solutions.\n\nKristy's struggles are likely due to the influences of dry air and\nmoderate shear.  The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing during\nthe next couple of days, which could allow the storm to gradually\nstrengthening during that time period.  Beyond a couple of days,\nhowever, cooler waters and a more stable airmass should end the\nstrengthening trend and result in weakening.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to\nthe HCCA model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 13.7N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 13.9N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 14.5N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 15.4N 129.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 16.4N 130.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 18.5N 130.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 21.0N 130.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 23.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n1100 PM AST Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nA little bit of deep convection has developed near the center of\nDebby, but the overall cloud pattern still resembles more of a\nsubtropical cyclone.  Most of the convection is in a ragged band\nwell to the northeast of the center.  The initial intensity is held\nat 35 kt based on a subtropical ST2.5 classification from TAFB.\nThe global models are in good agreement that the system will open\nup into a trough on the southern side of a large low pressure\nsystem within 48 hours.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 360/11 kt.  Debby\nis likely to turn northeastward in the flow on the eastern side of\na mid-level trough.  The official forecast is somewhat faster than\nthe latest model consensus to maintain some continuity with the\nprevious NHC track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 40.3N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 41.2N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 42.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 43.9N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nThe eye of John passed a short distance east of Socorro Island a\nfew hours ago, and it is estimated that the radius of maximum winds\nnarrowly missed the island.  An automated station at Socorro\nrecorded a wind gust to 70 kt at 2300 UTC.  Although John's inner\ncore convection has weakened somewhat, Dvorak Current Intensity\nnumbers from TAFB and SAB still support an intensity of 90 kt for\nthis advisory.  Although John should remain over warm waters for\nthe next day or so, the deterioration of its convection suggests it\nis now in a somewhat less favorable atmospheric environment, so no\nfurther strengthening is expected.  The official intensity forecast\nis somewhat above the model consensus for the first 1-2 days and\nnear the consensus thereafter.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains northwestward or 315/9 kt.  The\nhurricane should continue to move northwestward along the\nsouthwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge for the next couple of\ndays.  Later, the weakening cyclone is likely to turn to the left\nand eventually move westward following the low-level flow.  The new\nofficial forecast is in close agreement with the previous one and\nmuch of the track model guidance, which remains in good agreement.\n\nAlthough the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast\ntrack or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field\nof the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to\nthe west coast of the peninsula.  In addition, a surge of moisture\naround John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally\nheavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next\ncouple of days.  Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the\nBaja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 19.2N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 PM PDT Tue Aug 07 2018\n\nKristy has become a little less organized this evening.  An upper\ntropospheric low situated to the northeast of Kristy is\nproducing moderate northwesterly shear which has degraded the\ncyclone's cloud pattern.  A 2035 UTC AMSR2 overpass revealed that\nthe surface center was partially exposed to the north of the\nconvective banding features.  The subjective Dvorak intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased as well, so the initial\nintensity for this advisory is lowered to 40 kt.\n\nStatistical and global models all show the upper low to the\nnortheast of Kristy weakening and lifting out in 24 hours or so,\nwhich should provide a more conducive upper wind environment for\nintensification, at least through mid-period.  Afterwards, a\nweakening trend should commence due to an intruding drier/stable air\nmass and cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures.  The HWRF and HCCA\nshow Kristy becoming a hurricane in 48 hours, which still seems\nquite reasonable and is reflected in the forecast.  All of the other\nguidance reaches just below 65 kt.  The NHC intensity forecast is\nbased primarily on these two models, and indicates a peak\nintensity of 65 kt in 48 hours.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 285/7 kt, and Kristy is being\nsteered by a narrow mid-level ridge to the northeast.  A complex\nsynoptic steering pattern comprised of an approaching deep-layer low\npressure system to the northwest of the tropical storm, and John to\nthe northeast, is forecast by most of the global and regional models\nto weaken what's left of the ridge currently steering Kristy.  The\nincreasing weakness in the subtropical ridge should cause Kristy\nto turn northwestward and northward through day 4.  At the end of\nthe period, a gradual turn toward the northwest around the\nperiphery of larger John's circulation.  The ECMWF deterministic and\nensemble models continue to be outliers in the aforementioned\nscenario due to less influence from the growing weakness to the\nnorth and significantly less binary interaction with John.  The\nofficial forecast is similar to the previous one, with a slight\nadjustment to the right and is basically in the middle of the HCCA\nand TVCE consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 14.2N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 14.6N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 15.4N 129.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 16.4N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.2N 130.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 19.5N 129.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 22.0N 130.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 24.3N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n500 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nOver the past several hours, deep convection with cloud tops of -55\nto -60 deg C has developed in the southeastern semicircle, with\nsome of the convective tops covering the previously exposed\nlow-level circulation center. In addition, outer banding\nfeatures have dissipated, and an elongated upper-level anticyclone\nhas developed over the cyclone. These convective- and synoptic-scale\nfeatures indicate that Debby has made the transition from a\nsubtropical to a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 40 kt\nis based on a blend of UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON intensity estimates\nof 39 kt and 42 kt, respectively. Furthermore, the 34-kt wind radii\nand radius of maximum winds (RMW) were decreased significantly on\nthis advisory based on ASCAT wind data.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 015/08 kt.  Debby has made the\nforecast turn toward the north-northeast, and a further turn toward\nthe northeast is expected later today as the cyclone moves around\nthe northwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge and ahead of an\napproaching mid-level trough. The latest model guidance remains in\ngood agreement on this developing track scenario, and the new NHC\nforecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close\nto a blend of the track consensus models HCCA and FSSE.\n\nDebby will be moving along a tight sea-surface temperature (SST)\ngradient for the next 24-36 hours or so, with the northwestern half\nthe circulation being over sub-25C SSTs and the southeastern\nsemicircle being over warmer waters where convection could continue\nto develop. Given the relatively low vertical wind shear regime\nthat the cyclone will be moving through, along with the possibility\nof deep convection persisting near the center, the intensity\nforecast calls for little change in strength today, followed by\nonly slight weakening tonight and early Thursday. By Thursday night\nor early Friday, SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to decrease\nto near 20 deg C and the shear is forecast to increase to more than\n20 kt, an unfavorable combination that should result in Debby\ndissipating over the far north Atlantic by 48 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 40.8N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 41.8N  48.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 43.2N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 44.5N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nAs mentioned in the previous discussion, the eye of John passed\nabout 9 nmi northeast of Socorro Island around 0030 UTC, with the\nisland possibly being within or just outside the eyewall. Additional\ndata from an automated station on the island indicate that the\nhighest sustained wind reported in 15-minute intervals was 48 kt at\n0230 UTC, with another 70-kt gust reported at 0200 UTC. The lowest\npressure measured was 970 mb at 0015 UTC, which is probably a 4-5 mb\ntoo low. Since that time, John's eye has occasionally become\ncloud-filled, but deep convection has recently developed in the\neyewall. The initial intensity is only decreased slightly to 85 kt\nbased on a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 87 kt and due to the recent\nuptick in eyewall convection.\n\nAlthough John should remain over warm waters for another 12 hours\nor so, the general trend calls for steady weakening due to the\ningestion of more stable air to the north, which is expected to\ndecrease the instability and inner-core convection. The official\nintensity forecast is lower than the previous intensity forecast,\nand is similar to a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/10 kt.\nJohn is expected to return to a northwestward motion at a slightly\nfaster forward speed later this morning, and then continue that\nmotion for the next 72 hours. After that time, a turn toward the\nwest-northwestward is forecast due to the weakening and shallow\ncyclone being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new\nofficial forecast remains in close agreement with the previous\nadvisory, and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nAlthough the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's\nouter circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall\nto portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.\nTherefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California\nPeninsula should monitor the progress of John.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 20.0N 111.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  12/0600Z 27.0N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  13/0600Z 27.3N 127.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Kristy is not well organized, with a\ndry slot wrapping around the northwestern side of the circulation.\nIn addition the center is on the northwestern edge of an area of\ndeep convection; an artifact of continued shear.  A scatterometer\npass revealed maximum winds of about 35 kt, which is a fair bit\nbelow the satellite estimates.  The initial wind speed is held at a\npossibly generous 40 kt since convection has increased in the past\nfew hours.\n\nShear from an upper-level low to the north-northeast of Kristy is\nforecast is relax in a day or so, and by that time the cyclone will\nprobably have mixed the current dry air intrusion.  Thus some\nrestrengthening is shown commencing beyond 24 hours.  There is\nonly a narrow window for intensification, however, since between\n48-72 hours the SSTs should become rather marginal with a possible\nincrease in a shear. The guidance has come down markedly from the\nlast cycle, with most of the models surprisingly showing no increase\nin strength.  This forecast will lower the winds about 10 kt from\nthe previous one during days 1-4, but is still about 10 kt above the\nconsensus at those time frames since the environment doesn't appear\nto be that hostile.\n\nNo change has been made to the initial motion estimate of 285/7 kt.\nKristy should turn northwestward by this evening and then northward\nlate Thursday as a narrow ridge is eroded away to the north of the\ncyclone.  While some binary interaction with Hurricane John is\npossible, it seems like Kristy will be steered toward John, then\nturn northwestward in about 96 hours due to weak ridging developing\nbetween the cyclones.  Model guidance is coming into better\nagreement on this scenario, with the ECMWF and GFS solutions\nconverging toward the model consensus.  The latest NHC forecast is\nslow to a blend of the corrected-consensus guidance, and is very\nclose to the previous NHC track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 14.2N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 14.8N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 15.5N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 16.4N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 17.3N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n1100 AM AST Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of Debby this morning is definitely typical of a\ntropical cyclone instead of a subtropical system with moderate\nconvection wrapping around the center, and a well defined\nupper-level outflow in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and CIMMS SATCON still\nsupport an initial intensity of 40 kt. A recent ASCAT pass suggest\nthat this estimate could be generous. Debby is already moving over\ncooler waters, so a gradual weakening is anticipated before the\nsystem becomes extratropical and then gets absorbed by a larger\ntrough. In fact, most of the reliable global models degenerate Debby\ninto a trough of low pressure on Thursday.\n\nThe initial motion is toward the northeast or 035 degrees at 10 kt.\nThe cyclone is embedded within a mid-latitude trough, and will\ncontinue to move on this general northeastward track with some\nincrease in forward speed in tandem with the trough until\ndissipation. The track models are in pretty good agreement on this\nsolution.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 41.2N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 42.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 44.2N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 46.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of John has degraded over the past 12\nhours or so, with the eye no longer present in conventional\nsatellite data.  The CDO has also become considerably less\nsymmetric than noted yesterday.  Satellite intensity estimates\nrange from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity has been\nlowered to 75 kt for this advisory.  John will be moving over\ncooler waters within the next 6-12 hours and into a more stable\natmosphere, which should cause gradual weakening through tonight.\nBy Thursday, John will be moving over much colder SSTs and a more\nrapid rate of filling is expected by that time.  John is predicted\nto become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days as it reaches SSTs of around\n21C.\n\nThe hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. John should\ncontinue moving northwestward while it remains a vertically deep\ncyclone, but once it weakens and becomes a more shallow system it\nis expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level trade\nwind flow. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent\nagreement and little change was required to the previous NHC\ntrack forecast.\n\nAlthough the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's\nouter circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall\nto portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.\nTherefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California\nPeninsula should monitor the progress of John.\n\nJohn is also producing large swells that are already affecting\nportions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.\nThese swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast\nof the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern\nCalifornia by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 20.7N 112.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 AM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nKristy has continues to have the structure of a strongly sheared\ntropical cyclone. The low-level center has been difficult to\nidentify overnight, but recent microwave data indicates that it is\ndisplaced to the northwest of the primary convective mass. The\ninitial intensity has been held at 40 kt based on a blend of Dvorak\nFinal-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.\n\nAlthough the low-level center has been somewhat difficult to track,\nit appears that Kristy has begun to turn west-northwestward, and the\ninitial motion estimate is 290/7 kt. Little change has been made to\nthe official track forecast, but confidence remains very low. A\nbreak in the subtropical ridge created by Hurricane John should\nallow Kristy to continue turning, resulting in a northward motion by\nThursday. Beyond that time, the model spread remains high, fueled by\na combination of uncertainty as to how much John and Kristy will\ndirectly interact, and how much Kristy will respond to an\nupper-level trough to the northwest. The GFS is a notable outlier on\nthe east side of the guidance envelope, and is the only model\nshowing Kristy wrapping around the circulation of John. For now, the\nNHC forecast continues to downplay this possibility, and is a little\nto the west of the multi-model consensus.\n\nThe intensity guidance spread is also high, ranging from the HWRF\nwhich makes Kristy a hurricane, to the SHIPS and LGEM which forecast\nonly gradual weakening. Since the shear is forecast to decrease over\nthe next 12 to 24 hours, and Kristy will be moving away from the\ncold wake of Hector and over warmer waters, at least some\nstrengthening seems likely. By the second half of the forecast\nperiod, the cyclone will be passing over much colder SSTs and\nthrough a drier environment, which should cause the cyclone to\nsteadily weaken and become a remnant low.  The NHC forecast is now\nclose to the model consensus IVCN, which is higher this cycle.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 14.4N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 15.9N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 16.8N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 19.8N 130.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 22.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n500 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Debby's circulation is becoming\nelongated and the low-level center is on the northeastern edge of an\narea of moderate convection.  A blend of the satellite intensity\nestimates, and data from an earlier ASCAT pass yields an intensity\nof 35 kt at this time.  Debby is already moving over cooler waters,\nso additional weakening is anticipated, and the circulation should\nshould open up into a trough on Thursday. In fact, this is the\nsolution of the GFS and the ECMWF models.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Debby is moving toward the northeast\nor 040 degrees at 13 knots.  The cyclone is well embedded within the\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and this pattern\nshould continue to steer Debby northeastward with some increase in\nforward speed.  The track models continue to be in pretty good\nagreement.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 42.0N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 43.5N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 45.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n300 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nJohn has shown some improved organization since the last advisory\nas the system has formed a 20 n mi wide cloud-filled eye.  Satellite\nintensity estimates remain in the 65-77 kt range, so the initial\nintensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.  Other than\nthis temporary break in the weakening, there is little change to the\nintensity forecast, as the forecast track takes John over\nprogressively colder sea surface temperatures and into a more stable\nair mass. The new intensity forecast is in the center of the\nintensity guidance, with John expected to weaken to a tropical storm\nin 24 h or less and to a remnant low between 48-72 h.\n\nThe initial motion is 325/13, a bit faster than earlier.  A\ncombination of an upper-level low near 19N 124W and a mid- to\nupper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer John\nnorthwestward for the next 36 h or so.  After that, the cyclone or\nits remnants is forecast to turn west-northwestward in the low-level\ntrade wind flow.  Near the end of the forecast period, a slow motion\nis expected as the remnants of John move into an area of light\nsteering currents.  The guidance envelope has shifted a little to\nthe north from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is\nnorth of and faster than the previous forecast.\n\nAlthough the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's\nouter circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall\nto portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.\nTherefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California\nPeninsula should monitor the progress of John.\n\nJohn is also producing large swells that are already affecting\nportions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.\nThese swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast\nof the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern\nCalifornia by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 22.0N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  12/1800Z 28.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nKristy's overall structure hasn't changed much over the past few\nhours, but cloud tops associated with the deepest convection have\nnoticeably warmed. The intensity estimates from all agencies have\nalso not changed, so the initial intensity has been held at 40 kt.\nUnfortunately, the various intensity models have not changed, either\nand the spread remains high. While the HWRF continues to show Kristy\nquickly strengthening to hurricane intensity, all of the\nstatistical-dynamical guidance keeps the tropical storm very weak\nthroughout the forecast period. The NHC forecast therefore continues\nto split the difference between these scenarios and shows slow\nstrengthening for a couple of days while the cyclone remains in\na low-shear environment. By days 4 and 5, Kristy is forecast to be\nmoving over much cooler SSTs and through a more stable environment,\nwhich should cause it to weaken and become a remnant low.\n\nThe track forecast is also still low confidence. Although Kristy is\ncurrently moving west-northwestward with an initial motion of 300/5\nkt, the models are in good agreement that Kristy will turn northward\novernight and tomorrow due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge\ncreated by Hurricane John. The uncertainty grows substantially\nbeyond 24 h. The GFS continues to insist on a steering flow that\nwill cause Kristy to become wrapped up in the larger circulation of\nJohn, while the UKMET and ECMWF show only a slow northward motion,\nfollowed by a turn back toward the west or northwest once the\ncyclone becomes a remnant low. The NHC forecast has been favoring\nthe western solution, and I don't see an obvious reason to change\nthat reasoning at this time.  Therefore, little change has been\nmade to the track forecast, which lies near a consensus of those two\nmodels, a little west of the multi-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 14.7N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 15.3N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.2N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 17.2N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 18.2N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 20.2N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 21.3N 130.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n1100 PM AST Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nA very recent ASCAT pass indicates that Debby is stronger than\npreviously estimated.  The pass showed maximum winds of about 40 kt,\nand since the entire circulation was not captured, the initial\nintensity is set at 45 kt.  This estimate is also in agreement with\na Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.  Although the relatively compact\ntropical storm is maintaining an area of moderate convection, the\nthunderstorm activity is displaced to the south-southwest of the\ncenter due to about 15 kt of wind shear.  Debby is currently over\nfairly cool 25 deg C SSTs, but it will be headed for much cooler\nwater during the next 24 to 36 hours.  These unfavorable oceanic\nconditions combined with an increasingly stable airmass should cause\nweakening and extratropical transition.  The NHC intensity forecast\nshows Debby becoming extratropical by 24 hours and dissipating\nshortly thereafter, following the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving northeastward, or 040 degrees, at 13\nkt.  A faster northeastward motion is expected until the cyclone\nopens into a trough as Debby becomes more embedded in the\nmid-latitude flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of\nthe guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 42.8N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 44.4N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 46.8N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane John Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n900 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nAfter making a bit of a comeback earlier today, the final weakening\nphase of John appears to have begun.  The eye is no longer apparent\non visible or infrared imagery and the inner core convection is\nbecoming more fragmented.  The current intensity is set at 70 kt\nbased on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.\nJohn is beginning to cross a significant gradient of SST into cooler\nwaters and a drier, more stable air mass should cause steady\nweakening.  The official intensity forecast is close to the model\nconsensus.  John is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical\nremnant low by Saturday, if not sooner.\n\nThe initial motion, 325/14 kt, is about the same as before.  The\ntrack forecast is fairly straightforward.  The tropical cyclone\nshould continue to move northwestward on the southwestern periphery\nof a mid-level ridge for the next day or two.  A gradual turn\ntoward the left should take place thereafter as the increasingly\nshallow system comes more under the influence of the low-level\nflow.  Near the end of the forecast period, John's remnants are\nlikely to slowly meander in a region of weak steering currents.\nThe track guidance is in good agreement and the official forecast\nis slightly north of the previous one.\n\nAlthough the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of\nthe Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's\nouter circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall\nto portions of Baja California Sur through Thursday morning.\n\nJohn is also producing large swells that are already affecting\nportions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.\nThese swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast\nof the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern\nCalifornia by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 23.1N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/0000Z 28.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0000Z 29.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 PM PDT Wed Aug 08 2018\n\nDeep convection associated with Kristy has increased near and to the\neast of the center during the past few hours.  However, microwave\nimages still show that the convective pattern is not symmetric due\nto westerly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level low to the\nnorth-northeast of the cyclone.  The satellite intensity estimates\nrange from 35 to 45 kt, so the initial intensity is again held at 40\nkt for this advisory.\n\nKristy will likely have an opportunity to strengthen some during the\nnext day or two while it pulls away from the mid- to upper-level low\nand remains over relatively warm water.  In about 48 hours, however,\nKristy is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm. These cooler\nwaters along the forecast track and a more stable environment should\nend the opportunity for strengthening and result in a gradual\nweakening trend.  The intensity models remain quite divergent, with\nthe SHIPS and LGEM models showing little or no strengthening while\nthe HWRF model predicts Kristy to reach hurricane intensity.  The\nNHC intensity forecast lies between these scenarios and is in best\nagreement with the intensity model consensus.  This forecast shows\nKristy becoming a post-tropical cyclone by day 4 when the system is\nexpected to be over 23 degree C SSTs.\n\nThe tropical storm has turned northwestward, with the latest initial\nmotion estimated to be 315/6 kt.  A turn to the north is expected on\nThursday as Kristy gets drawn toward the larger and stronger\nHurricane John.  The spread in the models remains really large with\nthe GFS and HWRF models showing Kristy moving northeastward and even\nmerging with John.  Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show a\nnorthward and then more westward motion when Kristy becomes a weak\nand shallow system in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted a little to the right, but it remains to the west of the\nconsensus models in favor of the UKMET and ECMWF solutions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 15.3N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 18.0N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 19.2N 129.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  14/0000Z 23.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n500 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nDebby is still hanging on to tropical storm status with a new burst\nof deep convection having recently developed just south of the\nlow-level center. However, the cyclone's overall cloud pattern has\ndeteriorated significantly since the previous advisory, and there\nare no longer any convective bands in the region where earlier\n40-plus-kt ASCAT winds were observed. As a result, the initial\nintensity has been lowered slightly to 40 kt, which is consistent\nwith an average of consensus current T-number and current intensity\nestimates of T2.5 and T3.0, respectively, from both TAFB and SAB.\n\nDebby has begun to accelerate northeastward, and the motion\nestimate is now 055/15 kt. A faster northeastward motion is expected\nas Debby gets caught up in the high-latitude westerlies ahead of a\nfast-moving shortwave trough. The small cyclone is forecast to open\nup into a surface trough by 24 h or so due to Debby moving faster\nthan 20 kt and steady weakening of the circulation over the cold\nwaters of the far north Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory and basically lies down the middle\nof the tightly packed guidance envelope.\n\nAlthough Debby has been and is forecast to continue straddling a\ntight SST gradient with 26+ deg C water just to the southeast and\nsouth of the center, the ingestion of drier and more stable air\nfrom the north is expected to induce gradual weakening until\ndissipation or absorption occurs in about 24 h. Debby could briefly\nbecome extratropical in about 18 h, followed by dissipation shortly\nthereafter.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 43.6N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 45.4N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of John continues to degrade, with the\ncentral dense overcast decreasing in both size and intensity.\nScatterometer data also indicate that the low-level center is\nsouthwest of the mid-level center, hinting that the circulation\ncould be decoupling.  The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, near\nthe latest TAFB and CIMSS-ADT estimates.  John is rapidly moving\nover cool waters into a dry stable airmass, which should cause\nfurther weakening. The new NHC wind speed prediction follows the\ntrend of the HFIP corrected-consensus guidance (a top performer this\nyear), leading to a small reduction in the forecast.  Remnant low\nstatus is forecast after 36 hours when the cyclone moves over\nsub-22C waters with little environmental instability.\n\nJohn has turned leftward, now estimated at 305/14 kt.  The tropical\ncyclone should continue to gradually turn toward the west-northwest\nover the next few days as it moves around a ridge situated over the\nsouthwestern United States. John's remnants are likely to drift\nnorthward or northwestward at long range in a region of weak\nsteering currents. The track guidance is in very good agreement and\nthe official forecast is close to the previous one.\n\nJohn is producing large swells that are already affecting portions\nof the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells\nare predicted to spread northward along the west coast of the\npeninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern\nCalifornia by tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-\nthreatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 23.7N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 24.8N 117.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 25.9N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 26.9N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 27.5N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  12/0600Z 28.1N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/0600Z 29.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nDeep convection has continued to increase near and to the north and\neast of Kristy's center, and cirrus outflow has expanded some in all\nquadrants. Satellite intensity estimates supported an intensity of\n40 kt at 0600 UTC, but the recent increase in convection, along with\na Dvorak estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and and a UW-CIMSS ADT\nestimate of T2.9/43 kt, justify increasing the advisory intensity to\n45 kt.\n\nKristy has turned to north-northwest and is now moving 345/05 kt.\nThe cyclone is expected to turn toward the north later today,\nfollowed by a motion toward the north-northeast or northeast in the\n24-48 h time period as Kristy and much larger Tropical Storm John\nundergo some weak binary interaction. However, the two cyclones\nseparate by 72 h as John weakens over cold waters and its influence\non Kristy diminishes, resulting in a turn to the north. By 96 h and\nbeyond, Kristy will also be located over much colder water and is\nexpected to have degenerated into a shallow remnant low pressure,\nbecoming steered more westward by the deep-layer easterly trade\nwind flow. There remains considerable divergence among the global\nand regional hurricane models, with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models\nkeeping Kristy moving northward after 72 h, and the ECMWF and UKMET\nmodels moving Kristy westward. The guidance envelope has shifted\nmarkedly to the right of the previous forecast track, and the new\nofficial forecast track has also been shifted in that direction.\nHowever, the new track forecast was not shifted as far east as the\nconsensus models HCCA and FSSE, out of respect for the reliable\nECMWF model.\n\nThere is a narrow window of opportunity of about 24 h for Kristy to\nstrengthen a little more while the cyclone remains over SSTs of\n26-26.5 deg C and in a low-shear environment. After that time,\nhowever, cooler waters and the entrainment of much drier mid-level\nair is expected to induce steady weakening through the remainder of\nthe forecast period, with the cyclone becoming post-tropical by 72\nh, if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\nintensity consensus model IVCN through 24 h, and then is a little\nlower than IVCN after that due to Kristy moving over sub-25 deg C\nSSTs.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 15.8N 130.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 16.5N 130.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 17.6N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 18.7N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 19.8N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 21.4N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  13/0600Z 22.8N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0600Z 23.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Debby Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n1100 AM AST Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nDebby continues to produce a small area of deep convection just\nsouth of its exposed low-level center. Overnight and early this\nmorning, the cyclone passed over a warm eddy within the Gulf Stream,\nand this may have provided enough energy to allow the cyclone to\nmaintain its convection and intensity. A recent ASCAT overpass\naround 1230 UTC showed that the maximum winds of Debby are still\nnear 40 kt, but the cyclone has nearly opened up into a trough of\nlow pressure. Furthermore, the wind field has broadened, typically\nan indication that a system is losing its tropical characteristics.\n\nNo significant changes have been made to the track or intensity\nforecasts. The tropical storm continues to move quickly\nnortheastward, with an initial motion of 055/15 kt. The cyclone, or\nits remnants, should accelerate northeastward today ahead of a\nfast-moving shortwave trough until dissipation occurs. Debby is now\ncrossing over the northern wall of the Gulf Stream, so weakening is\nexpected to resume later today. The forecast conservatively shows\nDebby as a post-tropical cyclone at 12 hours, but it is very\npossible that Debby will dissipate later today as its forward speed\nincreases.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 44.5N  43.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 46.2N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nJohn's structure hasn't changed much over the past few hours. A\ncombination of cool SSTs and stable air appear to be causing\nconvection to erode in the southern portion of the cyclone's\ncirculation.  A blend of objective and subjective Dvorak\nclassifications was used to determine the initial intensity of 60\nkt. The tropical storm will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs\nfor the next couple of days, and further weakening is inevitable.\nThe intensity models are in good agreement on the forecast weakening\nrate, and John is still forecast to become a remnant low within the\nnext 48 h.\n\nThe initial motion continues near 305/14 kt.  There is no change to\nthe reasoning behind the track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is\nmerely an update of the previous advisory.  All of the guidance\nremains in good agreement that the cyclone should will gradually\nturn west-northwestward as it moves around a mid-level ridge\ncentered over the southwestern U.S. for the next few days. By the\nend of the forecast period, the remnant low is likely to slow down\nto a drift within an area of weak low-level steering flow.\n\nLarge swells associated with John are already affecting portions of\nthe coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to\nspread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast\nby tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local\nweather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 24.5N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nDeep convection has continued to increase in association with\nKristy, mainly in a curved band over the northern semicircle of the\ncyclone.  The current intensity estimate is 55 kt in agreement with\na Dvorak estimate from TAFB and is close to the latest CIMSS SATCON\nvalue.  Some additional strengthening is possible before Kristy\nreaches cooler waters late tomorrow, and the official forecast is\nclose to the IVCN intensity model consensus.  A weakening trend is\nlikely to commence tomorrow night, and the system is expected to\nbecome post-tropical later this weekend.\n\nCenter fixes have a lot of scatter and the initial motion is an\nuncertain 345/4 kt.  There continues to be a lot of spread in the\ntrack guidance models.  The GFS and its ensemble, along with the\nHWRF and HMON regional models, are most aggressive in showing Kristy\nbeing drawn into the larger circulation of John to the northeast.\nThe UKMET and ECMWF models do not take Kristy nearly as far to the\nnorth and northeast as those other models.  Since John is weakening,\nit may not have that much of an influence on Kristy, especially\nlater in the forecast period.  For now, the official forecast is\nshifted a little to the right of the previous one but not as much as\nshown by the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus tracks.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 16.1N 130.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 18.2N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 19.3N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 20.4N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 22.0N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  13/1200Z 23.8N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1200Z 25.5N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Debby","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Debby Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042018\n500 PM AST Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nDebby has become post-tropical. The circulation of the cyclone has\nbecome ill defined, and it is no longer producing enough organized\ndeep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Therefore,\nDebby has become post-tropical, and this is the last advisory. The\ncyclone is accelerating northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough,\nand this should continue for the next few hours until Debby opens up\ninto a trough of low pressure and merges with a larger frontal\nboundary later tonight.\n\nDebby is likely still producing gale-force winds to the southeast\nof its center, however all of the guidance indicates that these\nwinds will gradually decrease through early tomorrow.  Additional\ninformation on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts\nissued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header\nNFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\nat https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 45.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nJohn has resumed its gradual weakening.  Cloud tops near the center\nof the tropical storm have warmed, and several recent microwave\noverpasses indicate that deep convection is still primarily limited\nto the northern and western semicircles. The intensity has been\nlowered to 55 kt based on a the latest Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB\nand SAB, and it is possible this is generous. No change has been\nmade to the intensity forecast, and continued steady weakening\nshould continue for the next day or two. The most recent dynamical\nguidance indicates that John is likely to become a remnant low\naround 36 h, so the forecast conservatively shows the system\nmaintaining tropical cyclone status through that time. Once it\nbecomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin down until\ndissipating early next week.\n\nThe tropical storm has made a left-of-track jog over the past few\nhours, and the initial motion estimate is now 290/13 kt.  Due to\nthis shift, the track forecast has been adjusted west and south\nthrough the entire forecast period. That said, there has been no\nother significant change to the forecast reasoning or track\nguidance. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward\naround a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. for the\nnext day or two.  After becoming post-tropical, the remnant\ncirculation of John is forecast to begin drifting slowly within an\narea of weak low-level steering flow. The new NHC forecast is very\nclose to the multi-model consensus TVCN throughout the forecast\nperiod.\n\nLarge swells associated with John are already affecting portions of\nthe coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to\nspread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast\nby tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf\nand rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local\nweather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 24.8N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 25.5N 120.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 26.4N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 27.1N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 27.7N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  12/1800Z 28.5N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nKristy's deep convection has been waxing and waning, with an overall\ndecrease a few hours ago followed by a recent increase near the\ncenter.  The advisory intensity is kept at 55 kt, in agreement with\nobjective ADT values from UW/CIMSS and a subjective Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB.  Kristy is over marginally warm waters, in\nlow vertical shear, and with fairly well-defined upper-level\noutflow.  There is a window of opportunity of about a day for\nadditional intensification, and the official intensity forecast\nfollows the intensity model consensus and the LGEM guidance.  A\nweakening trend is likely to commence by Friday night, and Kristy\nshould degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late in the\nweekend.\n\nVisible imagery and some microwave data provided more accurate\ncenter fixes than earlier today, and the initial motion is a more\nconfident 360/6 kt.  The main steering mechanisms for Kristy are a\nweak ridge to the north and the large circulation of weakening John\nto the northeast. There continues to be significant diversity in the\ntrack models. The ECMWF and UKMET models, and their ensembles, are\nsubstantially to the left of the other guidance with the GFS, HWRF,\nand HMON much more to north and east, presumably due to interaction\nwith John. Since the weakening John may not be that much of an\ninfluence, the official forecast is roughly in the middle of these\ntwo extremes and close to the model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 16.9N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 17.7N 129.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 19.0N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 20.3N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 21.3N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 23.0N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  13/1800Z 25.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nJohn continues to slowly weaken as the storm moves over 22 degrees C\nwaters well west of the Baja California Peninsula. Although cloud\ntops have become progressively warmer over the past 12 hours,\nsatellite imagery indicates that the storm still has a well-defined\nstructure, with tight banding around the system center and an\neye-like feature. Based off the decrease in convection, the initial\nintensity has been lowered to 50 kt. This is in agreement with an\naverage of Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB and SAB. Given the good\nstructure of the storm this evening, John will likely maintain\ntropical storm intensity through most of Friday. After that time,\nprogressively cooler SSTs and stable air should cause convection\nto dissipate sufficiently enough for John to be considered a remnant\nlow. Once it becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin\ndown until it dissipates early next week.\n\nAfter a leftward jog in the track earlier today, the tropical storm\nhas resumed a motion of 300/12 kt. This track is expected to\ncontinue for the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in\nforward speed. Thereafter, the left-biased GFS, which had been\ncalling for an interaction between the remnants of John and Tropical\nStorm Kristy to the southwest, has now backed off that solution in\nthe 18Z run. This has resulted in a rightward shift in many of the\nconsensus models. With this shift in guidance, the forecast track\nhas also been adjusted slightly to the right, very close to the\nlatest TVCN solution, which has the remnant low of John drifting\nnorthwest then north later this weekend into early next week.\n\nSwells associated with John continue to affect portions of\nthe coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to\nreach portions of the southern California coast. These swells could\ncause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please\nconsult products from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 25.5N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 26.3N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 27.2N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 27.7N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/0000Z 28.4N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/0000Z 29.9N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018\n\nRecent 37-GHz microwave images show that Kristy's low-level\nstructure has improved markedly with a solid cyan ring and multiple\nlow-cloud spiral bands.  Inner-core convection has increased too,\nand recent infrared satellite imagery is suggesting the possible\ndevelopment of a ragged eye.  Although 00Z Dvorak estimates were a\nconsensus T3.5 from TAFB and SAB, the continued improvement in\nstructure supports an initial intensity of 60 kt.  Given the\ncyclone's well-defined structure, Kristy could become a hurricane\novernight or early Friday while it remains over sufficiently warm\nwater and in a low-shear environment.  After that time, cooler\nwaters and gradually increasing shear will cause the winds in the\ncirculation to slowly diminish, with deep convection likely\ndissipating, and Kristy becoming post-tropical, by 72 hours.  The\nupdated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the guidance\nin the first 12 hours but then is similar to the previous forecast\nand close to the HCCA guidance and the ICON intensity consensus\nthereafter.\n\nKristy is moving slightly east of due north, or 010/6 kt.  There\nhas been little change in the tune of the various track models.\nThe GFS and HWRF continue to show Kristy being pulled north-\nnortheastward by Tropical Storm John, while the ECMWF and UKMET\nmodels show less interaction and have Kristy turning west-\nnorthwestward by 36-48 hours with more ridging to the north.  This\nmight be a classic case of why the consensus approach can work so\nwell.  So far, with 72 hours of forecasts for Kristy under our belt,\nthe GFS and the ECMWF have been the two worst-performing track\nmodels, each having a significant eastward and westward bias,\nrespectively.  The various consensus aids, on the other hand, have\nproven to be the most skillful so far.  For that reason, the NHC\ntrack forecast continues to be down the middle of the guidance\nenvelope, close to a blend of the HCCA and TVCX aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 17.4N 129.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 18.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 19.7N 129.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 20.7N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 21.4N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 23.2N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  14/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0000Z 27.0N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm John Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018\n\nConvection associated with John has decreased significantly during\nthe past several hours as the cyclone moves over progressively\ncooler water.  Recent scatterometer data suggests that the maximum\nsustained winds have decreased to near 40 kt.  Continued weakening\nis forecast as John moves over even colder water, and the system is\nnow forecast to weaken to a depression in less than 24 h and to a\nremnant low in 24-36 h.  After that, the remnant low will gradually\nspin down until it dissipates early next week.\n\nThe initial motion is now 310/9.  This motion should continue with\na decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days,\nfollowed by a turn toward the north before the system dissipates.\nThe new forecast track is near the consensus models through 48 h\nand is a little to the west of them from 48-72 h.\n\nSwells associated with John continue to affect portions of the coast\nof the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to reach portions\nof the southern California coast. These swells could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 25.9N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 26.7N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 27.4N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 28.0N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/0600Z 28.6N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/0600Z 30.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018\n\nKristy has become a little better organized since the last\nadvisory, as there is now a small central dense overcast with outer\nbanding in the southern semicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates\nare in the 55-65 kt range, and recent scatterometer data suggests\nwinds are below hurricane strength.  Based on these data, the\ninitial intensity is held at 60 kt.  There is still some chance\nthat Kristy could become a hurricane during the next few hours.\nAfter that, the forecast track takes the cyclone over cooler waters\nand a steady weakening is forecast.  The new intensity forecast,\nwhich lies in the middle of the intensity guidance, is nudged\ndownward a little from the previous forecast, although it still\ncalls for Kristy to become a remnant low by 72 h.\n\nThe initial motion is 005/7.  The track guidance has made a notable\nwestward shift since the previous advisory, as the models generally\nshow less interaction between Kristy and Tropical Storm John.\nHowever, there is still a significant spread between the northward\ntracking GFS and the more westward UKMET and ECMWF.  The new\nforecast track is also shifted westward from the previous track, but\nit lies to the east of the various consensus models.  An additional\nwestward adjustment to the track may be required later if the\ncurrent model trends continue.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 18.2N 129.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 19.2N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 20.3N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 21.1N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 21.8N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 23.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0600Z 25.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0600Z 26.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"John","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP122018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone John Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018\n800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018\n\nJohn's convection vanished around 0430 UTC, and the cyclone now\nconsists of a tight swirl of low clouds moving over a 22 degree\nCelsius ocean. Given the lack of convection, the system has been\nclassified as a remnant low with 30-kt winds in this last advisory.\nThe low is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, and this general\nmotion will likely continue until dissipation in a couple of days.\n\nSwells associated with the remnants of John continue to affect\nportions of the coasts of the Baja California peninsula and southern\nCalifornia, but will soon begin to subside. These swells could cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office.\n\nThis is the last NHC advisory on John.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 26.8N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  11/1200Z 28.2N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  12/0000Z 28.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018\n\nKristy appears to have at least maintained its strength over the\npast several hours. A partial hit from the AMSR instrument at 0950\nUTC indicated a closed or nearly-closed mid-level eye was present,\nand this feature was still apparent in SSMI imagery a few hours\nlater. Convection near Kristy's center has also recovered after a\nbrief decrease earlier this morning. There is a large spread in the\nlatest satellite intensity estimates. Objective estimates from the\nUW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 50 kt, while the latest\nsubjective Dvorak classification from SAB supports an intensity of\n77 kt. The initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise\nbetween the various estimates, but this estimate is perhaps more\nuncertain than usual.\n\nIn the short term, Kristy still has a brief period to maintain its\nintensity for about 12 hours while the shear is low and it remains\nover marginally warm SSTs around 26C. In fact, I can't rule out that\nKristy could briefly become a hurricane later today. Beginning\ntomorrow, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters, and steady\nweakening should begin. The intensity guidance is in very good\nagreement on this solution for 24 hours and beyond. By early next\nweek, the tropical storm will likely lose all convection and become\na remnant low, while continuing to gradually spin down over sub-24C\nwaters.\n\nThe initial motion is now 010/8 kt. Kristy should continue moving\ngenerally northward for the next couple of days, towards a weakness\nin the subtropical ridge created by John and to the east of a large\nupper-level trough located over the central Pacific. Once the\ncyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn gradually westward,\nsteered by the low-level flow. Even the GFS no longer shows any\nsignificant interaction between Kristy and the remnants of John, so\nthe NHC forecast has shifted substantially southwestward by the end\nof the forecast period, close to the HCCA and TVCN consensus aids.\nAdditional adjustments in this direction may be required if it\nbecomes clear that Kristy will weaken sooner than currently\nforecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 18.9N 129.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 19.9N 129.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 20.9N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 21.6N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 22.1N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 23.3N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1200Z 24.0N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-08-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018\n\nIt looks like Kristy may have peaked in intensity. The cloud tops\nof the central dense overcast have warmed since 6 hours ago, and any\nhints of an eye-like feature in visible imagery have disappeared.\nThe initial intensity has been held at 60 kt as a compromise of all\navailable satellite estimates, which still vary widely. Kristy has\ncrossed the 26 C SST isotherm, and steady weakening from this point\nis likely as the tropical storm moves over progressively colder\nwaters. All of the intensity guidance agrees on this solution, and\nconfidence in the forecast is high. The dynamical models generally\nagree that cyclone will lose all deep convection by Sunday and\nbecome a remnant low.\n\nKristy is moving due north, and the initial motion estimate is\n360/7 kt. Kristy should continue to move generally northward for the\nnext 24 hours or so while it maintains at least some deep\nconvection. Beginning day 2, a turn toward the northwest, and\neventually west, will begin as the cyclone becomes increasingly\nsteered by low-level easterly flow to the north. The guidance,\nespecially the GFS, has shifted southwestward again, but is at\nleast in a little better agreement than it was previously. The NHC\nforecast has likewise been shifted substantially toward the\nsouthwest by the end of the forecast period, and remains very close\nto HCCA and TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 19.6N 129.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 20.5N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 21.2N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 21.6N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 22.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/1800Z 22.8N 133.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1800Z 23.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1800Z 24.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-08-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018\n\nKristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now\npassing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become\nconfined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to\nsome moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.\nThe initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in\nagreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.\nThe intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent\nforecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the\nnext couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur\ntonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to\nlose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low.\n\nKristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion\nestimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next\ncouple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest\nas it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-\nlevel flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its\nconvection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest\nis expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low\ndissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good\nagreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been\nshifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the\ntrends in the latest consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-08-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n200 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018\n\nKristy has weakened since the last advisory as the system moves\nover cooler sea surface temperatures, with the central convection\nbecoming less organized.  A recent ASCAT overpass indicates that\nthe maximum winds have decreased to near 40 kt, and that the 34-kt\nwind radii are smaller than previously analyzed.  Kristy will\ncontinue to move over cool sea surface temperatures during the\nforecast period.  Thus, continued weakening is expected with the\nsystem now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 h or less.\n\nThe initial motion is now 345/6.  As Kristy continues to weaken, the\ncyclone should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes\nshallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid-level flow around\nridging to the north.  Then, as the system becomes a remnant low, a\nturn to the west-northwest is expected, with this motion persisting\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period.  The new track\nforecast, which is similar to the previous track, lies near the\nvarious consensus models in the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 21.0N 130.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 21.6N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 22.0N 131.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 22.2N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/0600Z 22.5N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0600Z 24.5N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0600Z 25.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kristy","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP132018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Kristy Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132018\n800 AM PDT Sat Aug 11 2018\n\nCold waters and wind shear have taken a toll on Kristy.  The cloud\npattern has degenerated considerably, and it now consists of a\ntight swirl of low clouds with some patches of mid- to high-level\nclouds. It is estimated that the winds have decreased to 30 kt with\nsome isolated spots of higher gusts. The cyclone will continue over\ncold waters, and although regeneration is not anticipated, some\nintermittent showers could still develop before dissipation occurs\nin a couple of days.\n\nSince the post-tropical cyclone is a shallow system, it is now being\nsteered toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 4 kt by the\nlow-level trade winds. This general motion with a gradual turn to\nthe west is anticipated during the next day or so.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by NHC on this system.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 21.4N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  12/0000Z 21.8N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  12/1200Z 22.0N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1200Z 22.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 PM PDT Tue Aug 14 2018\n\nThe area of disturbed weather and associated low pressure area that\nthe NHC has been tracking for the past few days has acquired enough\norganized deep convection for the system to be declared a tropical\ndepression. Although the convection had waned a little during the\nday, recent satellite imagery indicates that convection near the\nwell-defined center has begun to increase and that outer banding\nfeatures in the western semicircle have been improving during the\npast few hours. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak\nsatellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/12 kt. For the next 72 hours, the\ntropical cyclone is forecast to move westward or slightly south of\ndue west along the southern periphery of a broad deep-layer ridge\nthat is located to the north of the depression. The ridge is\nexpected to weaken by 96 hours as a mid-latitude low/trough\ncurrently located off the coast of southern California digs\nsouthward and then westward during the forecast period. This\npattern should allow the cyclone to move west-northward into the\nweakness in the ridge and start gaining latitude. For this initial\nforecast of the system, the NHC track lies close to a blend of the\nconsensus track models HCCA and TVCE.\n\nThe vertical wind shear is forecast to remain around 10 kt or less\nfor the next 72 hours or so, with a further decrease on days 4 and 5\nwhen the system moves underneath and/or develops an upper-level\nanticyclone, conditions that typically favor significant\nintensification. However, since the circulation envelope is\ncurrently elongated northeast-to-southwest, it will take a couple of\ndays for the system to become more symmetrical, which could then\nenhance the strengthening process. By that time, however, sea-\nsurface temperatures and mid-level humidity values will be marginal\nfor significant intensification to occur. As a result, only slow but\nsteady strengthening is indicated in this first intensity forecast,\nwhich closely follows the HCCA intensity consensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 10.9N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 10.8N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 10.7N 125.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 10.8N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 11.0N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 12.0N 134.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 15.6N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Depression Five Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n500 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nThe low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been\nmonitoring over the central Atlantic Ocean has developed\nsufficently organized deep convection and a well-defined center.\nSince the system has a large radius of maximum wind and is\nco-located with an upper-level low, it is being classified as a\nsubtropical depression.  The initial intensity is set to a possibly\nconservative 30 kt based on an earlier ASCAT pass.  This value\nis slightly below the latest satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.\nIt is interesting to note that so far this hurricane season, four of\nthe five systems have been a subtropical cyclone at some point in\ntheir lifetimes.\n\nSlow strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours or so while\nthe system remains over warm SSTs and in fairly low wind shear\nconditions.  After that time, sharply colder waters, drier air, and\na significant increase in wind shear should cause extratropical\ntransition in about 48 hours, or sooner, and a gradual weakening.\nThe models show the post-tropical system merging with a frontal zone\nin 3 to 4 days.\n\nThe subtropical depression is moving slowly northward at about 4\nkt.  A north to north-northeastward motion is expected today as the\nsystem moves on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge.  A mid-\nto upper-level trough currently over the northeastern U.S. is\nanticipated to approach the cyclone, and that feature should cause\nthe system to accelerate northeastward on Thursday and Friday.\nThe models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 37.6N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 38.5N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 40.2N  44.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 42.5N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 45.1N  37.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/0600Z 51.0N  24.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the depression is gradually getting\nbetter organized with deep convection increasing near the center and\nin curved bands over the western semicircle.  The initial intensity\nremains 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classifications from\nTAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising if the system was a\nlittle stronger.\n\nThe depression continues to move just south of due west at about 12\nkt.  A deep-layer ridge situated to the north of the cyclone should\nkeep the system moving on a general westward path at about the same\nforward speed during the next couple of days.  After that time, the\nmodels suggest that a mid- to upper-level low will cut off and cause\na break in the ridge.  This change in the flow pattern should cause\nthe tropical cyclone to move toward the west-northwest in the 3- to\n5-day time frame.  The models have generally shifted slightly to the\nleft this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that\ndirection.\n\nThe environmental conditions appear conducive for the cyclone to\nstrengthen during the next several days with the wind shear\nexpected to remain low, less than 10 kt, mid-level humidities fairly\nhigh, and SSTs marginally warm.  The intensity models respond to\nthese favorable conditions, and all of them now show the system\nbecoming a hurricane within the next few days.  The NHC intensity\nforecast follows that theme, and shows a faster rate of\nstrengthening than the previous forecast.  This prediction lies\nclosest to the HCCA and ICON models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 10.6N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 10.6N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 10.8N 128.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 12.3N 135.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z 13.8N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  20/0600Z 15.2N 144.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nSubtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   2...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nConvection associated with the subtropical cyclone became better\norganized after the release of the previous advisory, but\ncloud tops have warmed recently with the convection becoming\nsomewhat fragmented.  An Hebert-Poteat subtropical classification of\nT2.5 from TAFB suggests that they system is producing gale-force\nwinds, and recent scatterometer data that passed over the far\neastern portion of the circulation revealed 30-kt winds. Since the\ninstrument missed the radius of maximum winds, it is assumed that\nstronger winds exist over the eastern portion of the circulation,\nand the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt, making the system\na subtropical storm.\n\nErnesto has about 24 hours over marginally warm SSTs and in a low-\nshear environment in which to strengthen.  After that time, the\ncyclone will be moving over much colder water which should cause it\nto become post-tropical within 48 hours. The post-tropical cyclone\nis forecast to merge with a frontal zone associated with a larger\nextratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic in 3 to 4 days.\n\nThe cyclone is moving northward at about 6 kt. A mid-level trough\nthat is moving off the east coast of the United States should cause\nErnesto to turn north-northeastward later today, and the cyclone is\nforecast to accelerate northeastward by late Thursday as it becomes\nembedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model\nguidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track\nforecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 38.1N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 39.3N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 41.3N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 43.6N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 46.4N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  18/1200Z 52.3N  21.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 AM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nThe latest satellite imagery shows that the cyclone continues to\nbecome better organized with a growing central dense overcast along\nwith ample banding features.  Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 40\nkt, and with the increased organization since the last advisory,\nthe initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.\n\nFurther intensification is likely over the next few days as Lane\nencounters a conducive large-scale environment consisting of low\nshear and fairly warm waters.  Rapid strengthening is a distinct\npossibility after the cyclone forms an inner core, which could take\na day or so given that there is still some drier air in the eastern\nsemicircle.  The DTOPS rapid intensification index indicates a high\nprobability of significant strengthening over the next 3 days, with\nover a 70 percent chance of a 65-kt increase during that time.\nGiven that some of the guidance (FSSE and HMON) are even higher than\nthat, this seems like a reasonable forecast and is indicated below.\nThe new NHC forecast is raised from the last advisory, and is close\nto a blend of the previous forecast and the corrected-consensus\nguidance.  Continuity prevents a higher forecast, but Lane seems\ndestined to eventually become a category-4 hurricane like Hector.\n\nThe storm continues to move just south of due west at about 12 kt.\nThe subtropical ridge to the north of Lane is forecast to weaken\nslightly over the next few days, which will likely steer the cyclone\nto the west or west-northwest throughout the period.  There is very\nlittle spread in the guidance, with the most notable change since\nthe last advisory being a small shift to the southwest.  The\nlatest official track forecast is adjusted in that direction, and is\nnot too far from the latest model consensus.  Given the tightly\npacked guidance, this appears to be a high-confidence forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 10.7N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 10.6N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 10.7N 127.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 11.0N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 11.5N 132.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 12.6N 137.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 13.9N 142.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n500 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nRecent visible satellite imagery has shown a slight increase in\nconvection near and to the east of the center of Ernesto this\nafternoon, but there has been little change in the overall\norganization of the subtropical storm.  The satellite intensity\nestimate from TAFB remains an ST2.5, so the initial wind speed\nremains 35 kt for this advisory.  Ernesto is forecast to remain over\nmarginally warm SSTs and in a low wind shear environment during the\nnext 12-24 hours, and some modest strengthening is anticipated.\nAfter that time, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs below 20C and\ninto an area of increasing vertical wind shear.  As a result,\nErnesto is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone in about 36\nhours, and merge with a frontal zone near Ireland and the United\nKingdom in 3 to 4 days.\n\nErnesto is moving northward or 005/8 kt.  The cyclone should turn\nnorth-northeastward tonight ahead of a mid-level trough that is\nlocated off the coast of the eastern United States. Ernesto is\nforecast to become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies by\nlate Thursday and it is expected to accelerate northeastward at\nthat time. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the\nNHC forecast is again near the center of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 39.0N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 40.4N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 42.6N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 45.1N  37.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  17/1800Z 48.0N  31.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  18/1800Z 53.0N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Lane is strengthening.  The central\ndense overcast continues to grow, with a large banding feature in\nthe western semicircle and expanding outflow in most quadrants.\nASCAT data recently showed maximum winds of about 40 kt, so that\nwill be the initial wind speed, which is also near a blend of the\nlatest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\n\nWhile the latest microwave data indicate that the inner core of Lane\nremains loosely organized, the large-scale environment appears to be\nfavorable for intensification.  Low shear, warm waters of 27.5-28C,\nand moderate levels of mid-level moisture all support strengthening\nat a higher rate than climatology. However, since the inner core is\nnot well established yet, the intensity forecast will be held just\nbelow rapid strengthening (30 kt in 24 h) for day 1. There is still\na strong signal for that threshold to be met in the day 2-3 period\nfrom the DTOPS rapid intensification index, so the forecast will\nremain for a major hurricane to form during that time. This forecast\nis close to a blend of the latest NOAA-HCCA and FSSE corrected\nconsensus models.\n\nThe storm continues to move just south of due west, now at about 11\nkt.  The synoptic pattern is well established with a subtropical\nridge expected to only slightly weaken in the medium-range period,\ncausing a slight west-northwestward turn in the central Pacific.\nWhile the overall spread has increased in the 1200 UTC guidance, the\nlatest model consensus has barely budged since the previous\nadvisory, although it does fit the recent westward trend.  The\nlatest official track forecast is again adjusted in that direction,\nclose to the eastern Pacific track model consensus TVCE.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 10.6N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 10.5N 126.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 10.7N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 11.1N 130.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 11.6N 133.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 12.6N 138.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 14.0N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 15.2N 148.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n1100 PM AST Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nAlthough inner-core convection has increased since the previous\nadvisory, outer banding features have become more fragmented and\nthe overall cloud pattern has become elongated north-to-south.\nThere are also no signs of any upper-level anticyclonic outflow,\nan indication that Ernesto is still a subtropical cyclone. The\ninitial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based on a 2328Z\nASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 32 kt in the southeastern\nquadrant, along with a radius of maximum winds of 70-80 nmi. This\nintensity is consistent with a ST2.5/35 kt classification from TAFB.\n\nThe initial motion is now north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. Ernesto\nhas rounded the subtropical ridge axis to its south, and the\ncyclone should gradually get caught up in the mid-latitude\nwesterlies and turn northeastward during the next 12 hours or so.\nA northeastward motion along with a steadily increasing forward\nspeed is expected through Friday. The track guidance is tightly\npacked around the previous advisory track, so the new NHC forecast\ntrack is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory, and\nlies near the track consensus models HCCA and TVCN.  On the forecast\ntrack, Ernesto is expected to approach Ireland as an extratropical\ngale area on Saturday.\n\nErnesto is expected to remain over sea-surface temperatures (SST)\nof 25 deg C or warmer for the next 18-24 hours, along with low\nvertical shear conditions of less than 10 kt. These conditions\nshould allow for some slight strengthening during that short time\nwindow. By 36 hours, Ernesto is forecast to be moving over SSTs of\n20 deg C and colder and into a more stable airmass, resulting in a\ndegeneration of the inner-core convection. As a result, Ernesto is\nexpected to become a post-tropical cyclone by 36 hours, and become\nan extratropical gale area after merging with a frontal zone near\nIreland and the United Kingdom in about 3 days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 39.7N  45.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 41.3N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 43.7N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 46.3N  34.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  18/0000Z 49.0N  27.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/0000Z 54.0N  12.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 PM PDT Wed Aug 15 2018\n\nOverall, Lane's cloud pattern has become a little better organized\nthis evening.  Modest east-northeasterly shear, however, along with\nsome drier air, appears to be undercutting the diffluent outflow\nabove 300 mb and is impinging the north through northeast portion\nof the cyclone. An outer deep convective curved band, on the other\nhand, is now developing over most of the eastern half of the system.\nThe surface center is also located a bit further in the northern\nedge of an expanding, colder, central dense overcast.  The initial\nintensity is increased to 45 kt, and is based on a compromise of the\nTAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates (T3.0),\nand a 2205 UTC SATCON analysis (51 kt).\n\nLittle change has been made to the previous intensity forecast, and\nit still shows a rapid increase of nearly 55 kt in 48 hours based on\nthe Deterministic to Probabilistic Statistical Rapid Intensification\nIndex (DTOPS) which indicates a 67 percent chance of RI occuring\nduring this particular period.  The NHC forecast is weighed heavily\non a blend of the COAMPS-TC and the HFIP Corrected Consensus\nApproach model (HCCA), and indicates Lane intensifying into a\ncategory 3 hurricane in 3 days.\n\nLane's motion is estimated to be westward, or 265/11 kt, a little\nto the left of due west, and is being steered by a broad mid-level\nridge to its north-northwest.  The large-scale models continue to\nshow the ridge weakening in 2 days in response to a southwestward\nand westward retrograding cut-off mid-level low currently located\nsouthwest of the Baja California coast.  At that time, the cyclone\nshould gradually turn west-northwestward and continue in this\ngeneral direction through the remaining period of the forecast.\nThe official forecast is very close to the previous one, with only\nminor along-track adjustments, and sides with the HCCA and TVCN\nconsensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 10.4N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 10.4N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 10.7N 129.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 11.1N 132.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 12.9N 140.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 14.3N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n500 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nErnesto has generally changed little during the past several hours.\nThe subtropical storm continues to produce patches of convection in\ncurved bands around the center.  The circulation of the system is\nbecoming a little elongated from north to south, and dry air is\nwrapping into the western portion of the system.  The initial\nwind speed is again held at 35 kt, in agreement with the satellite\nintensity estimate from TAFB.\n\nThe subtropical storm has a limited amount of time to strengthen as\nit will remain over marginally warm waters and in a low wind\nshear environment for only another 12 hours.  After that time,\nthe cyclone is expected to cross over a sharp SST gradient and move\ninto an environment of higher shear.  These conditions should cause\nErnesto to lose its tropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when\nthe SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to be near 20 deg C.  The\npost-tropical system will likely maintain its intensity, due in part\nto its fast forward speed, until it merges with a frontal zone near\nthe United Kingdom this weekend.\n\nThe storm continues to gradually speed up, and it is now moving\nnorth-northeastward at 11 kt.  A turn to the northeast with a\nsignificant increase in forward speed is expected later today and\nFriday as a pair of shortwave troughs approach the storm, causing\nthe system to become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\nmodels remain in fairly good agreement, and this track forecast is\nlargely an update of the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 40.8N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 42.4N  41.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 45.0N  37.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  17/1800Z 47.8N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  18/0600Z 50.6N  23.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nThe latest satellite images suggest that Lane is getting better\norganized with its cloud pattern now consisting of a central dense\novercast feature and curved bands over the western semicircle.\nThere is a large spread in the intensity estimates tonight.\nAll of the Dvorak-based estimates have increased to 3.5/55 kt.\nHowever, an ASCAT pass around 0600 UTC showed maximum winds of only\n35 kt.  Since Lane is a compact system, it is possible that the\nresolution of ASCAT is not sufficient to capture its maximum winds,\ntherefore, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt as a compromise of\nthese data.  It should be noted that this is a low confidence\ninitial intensity estimate.\n\nLane is now moving due westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on the\nsouth side of a deep-layer ridge.  The global models all show a\nmid- to upper-level trough off the Baja California peninsula\ncutting off and moving westward during the next few days.  This\nfeature will weaken the ridge a little, and that should cause Lane\nto make a slight turn to the west-northwest in a couple of days.\nThe models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast\nlies near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Based on this\nforecast, Lane is expected to cross into the Central Pacific basin\nthis weekend.\n\nThe environmental conditions appear quite favorable for Lane to\nstrengthen.  During the next several days, the wind shear near Lane\nis expected to be less than 10 kt, humidity values relatively high,\nand SSTs sufficently warm.  Therefore, steady or even rapid\nstrengthening appears likely.  The NHC intensity forecast continues\nto lean toward the higher end of the model guidance, and shows Lane\nbecoming a hurricane in 12 to 24 hours, and a major hurricane within\nthe next few days.  This forecast is in best agreement with the\nHCCA model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 10.4N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 10.6N 128.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 10.9N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 11.4N 133.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 11.8N 136.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 13.1N 141.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 14.4N 146.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  21/0600Z 15.1N 150.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n1100 AM AST Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nConvection developed closer to the center of Ernesto early this\nmorning, suggesting that the system was attempting to make the\ntransition to a tropical cyclone, but that area of convection has\nweakened within the past couple of hours.  Patches of deep\nconvection continue over the outer portion of the circulation, and\na very recent ASCAT overpass continues to show a rather large radius\nof maximum winds, indicating that Ernesto remains a subtropical\ncyclone.  The ASCAT data showed a large area of 35-40 kt winds over\nthe eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation, so the\ninitial wind speed has been increased to 40 kt.\n\nErnesto has likely reached its peak intensity since it will be\nmoving over much cooler SSTs later today, and the cyclone is\nexpected to lose its subtropical characteristics late tonight or\nearly Friday.  The post-tropical cyclone should be able to maintain\nits intensity due in part to its expected fast forward speed over\nthe North Atlantic.  The global models indicate that the system will\nmerge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and the United\nKingdom late Saturday.\n\nErnesto has turned northeastward and is beginning to accelerate,\nand is now moving at around 14 kt.  The cyclone should be fully\nembedded within the mid-latitude westerlies within the next 24\nhours, and a significantly faster northeastward to\neast-northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days.\nThe track guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new\nNHC official forecast is essentially an update of the previous\nadvisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 42.0N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 43.9N  40.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 46.7N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  18/0000Z 49.5N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  18/1200Z 52.0N  19.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 AM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nLane appears to be intensifying this morning, with a more symmetric\npresentation on satellite imagery and pulsing deep convection near\nthe center.  A recent SSMI/S microwave pass indicates that an inner\ncore is trying to form, although it isn't well defined yet. The\ncurrent intensity estimates continue to display a large spread,\nranging from the overnight scatterometer data at low-end tropical-\nstorm strength, from hurricane strength in the TAFB Dvorak estimate.\nThe initial wind speed is set to 50 kt with the increased\norganization, and this remains a low confidence estimate.\n\nWhile so far Lane has only been slowly intensifying, the large-scale\nenvironment appears favorable for more significant intensification\nto occur soon, especially with current signs of a primitive inner\ncore. Thus the wind speed forecast will maintain the quick\nstrengthening from the previous forecast, and there remains a\nsignificant chance that rapid intensification will occur during the\nnext few days.  The biggest change from yesterday is that more of\nthe global models are indicating that westerly shear could affect\nLane in the central Pacific, so more weakening is shown at day 5.\nOtherwise, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the\nprevious one and is on the higher side of the guidance.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/11.  The subtropical ridge to\nthe north of Lane should continue to be the dominant steering\nmechanism, forcing the tropical cyclone to move westward or\nwest-northwestward for the next several days.  While the model\nspread is low in the short range, it notably increases by days 4/5.\nThe GFS-based guidance is showing Lane move slower than the rest of\nthe guidance, which allows the eastern periphery of the ridge to\nerode due to an inverted mid-level trough, and consequently a more\npoleward motion of the cyclone.  The ECMWF and UKMET show Lane\nmoving faster and basically missing any influence of that trough,\ncausing the storm to move faster to the west.  There are no\nstrong signals pointing me to either solution, so the official\nforecast follows the trend of the consensus, which ends up slightly\nwest of the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 10.6N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 10.8N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 11.2N 132.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 11.7N 134.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 12.2N 137.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 13.5N 142.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 14.7N 147.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 15.3N 151.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n500 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nVisible and infrared satellite imagery shows that convective\nbanding has increased closer to the center of Ernesto today.  The\nsystem has also lost much of its outer cloud bands and is no longer\nco-located with an upper-level low.  On this basis, Ernesto is now\nbeing classified as a tropical storm. The initial intensity remains\n40 kt, which is based on recent satellite estimates and the earlier\nASCAT data.  Although the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler\nwaters and become post-tropical very soon, the global models deepen\nthe system somewhat due to baroclinic processes. In addition, the\nexpected increase in the cyclone's forward speed is likely to result\nin an increase in the wind speed.  The new NHC intensity forecast\ncalls for slight strengthening over the next 12-24 hours, with\nlittle overall change in intensity thereafter.  The system is still\npredicted to merge with a frontal zone as it approaches Ireland and\nthe United Kingdom late Saturday or Saturday night.\n\nErnesto continues to accelerate northeastward and is now moving\n045/16 kt.  The cyclone should accelerate further while moving\nnortheastward to east-northeastward within the mid-latitude\nwesterlies over the next day or two. The dynamical model guidance\nremains tightly clustered and little change was made to the\nprevious NHC track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 43.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 44.9N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  17/1800Z 47.7N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  18/0600Z 50.2N  23.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  18/1800Z 52.0N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lane Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Lane is trying to form a ragged eye,\nwith an interesting mid-level mesocyclone rotating counterclockwise\naround the northern side of the circulation.  While Dvorak estimates\nfrom TAFB/SAB indicate Lane is already a hurricane, values from\nmicrowave data are a bit lower, and the cyclone only recently\nstarted to potentially form an eye.  The initial wind speed is set\nto 60 kt, close to the latest CIMSS SATCON figure.  Further\nintensification is expected, and given the warm waters, low shear\nand moderate mid-level humidity, rapid intensification is a\ndistinct possibility.  The new NHC forecast is basically an update\nfrom the previous one, on the high side of the guidance, and could\nbe conservative.\n\nThe initial motion estimate continues at 275/11.   The synoptic\npattern is well defined with a subtropical ridge persisting to the\nnorth.  While the ridge could weaken somewhat in a few days, a west\nor west-northwestward track is anticipated throughout the forecast\nperiod.  The spread in the guidance has decreased somewhat since\nthe last advisory, and the newest model consensus has basically\ncome in right on top of the last NHC forecast.  Thus the new NHC\ntrack prediction is nearly unchanged, staying close to a blend of\nthe dynamical model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 10.6N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 10.9N 130.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 11.4N 133.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 11.9N 136.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 12.5N 139.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 13.8N 143.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 14.8N 148.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 15.3N 152.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n1100 PM AST Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nConvection associated with Ernesto has increased in both coverage\nand intensity since the last advisory, with a large convective band\nwrapping about three-quarters of the way around the system.\nHowever, recent scatterometer data suggests that this has not yet\nresulted in strengthening, with winds of 35-40 kt observed about\n80 n mi southeast of the center.  Based mainly on the scatterometer\ndata, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.\n\nWhile Ernesto is in a warm moist air mass to the east of a\nmid-latitude cyclone near Newfoundland, the forecast track quickly\ntakes it over sea surface temperatures that will decrease to near\n15C in 24 h.  This should lead to the dissipation of the convection\nand to Ernesto becoming a post-tropical cyclone.  In 36-48 h, the\npost-tropical cyclone should merge with a frontal zone, with the\nresulting extratropical low dissipating between 48-72 h.  Overall,\nthe new intensity forecast is nudged slightly downward from the\nprevious forecast, as the guidance no longer shows significant\nstrengthening. Given the increased convection, though, some\nshort-lived strengthening could occur in the next 12 h. In addition,\nthe current trends have led to the time of Ernesto becoming\npost-tropical being moved back 12 h.\n\nThe initial motion is now 055/19.  The cyclone should accelerate\nfurther while moving northeastward to east-northeastward within the\nmid-latitude westerlies over the next day or two.  The dynamical\nmodel guidance remains tightly clustered and, as with the previous\nadvisory, little change was made to the track forecast.  On the\nforecast track, Ernesto or its remnants should approach Ireland and\nthe United Kingdom in about 48 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 44.1N  38.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 46.1N  34.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 48.9N  27.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  18/1200Z 51.2N  19.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/0000Z 53.2N  12.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 PM PDT Thu Aug 16 2018\n\nVisible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that\nLane's overall cloud pattern has continued to improve, with several\nspiral bands and a more symmetrical outflow pattern having\ndeveloped. Although the inner-core convection has deteriorated\nsomewhat until just recently due to the entrainment of dry air,\nmicrowave images indicate that a well-defined inner-core and\nlow-level eye feature has formed. Satellite intensity estimates at\n0000 UTC ranged form T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 55 kt and 59 kt\nfrom UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively, which supported an\nintensity of 60 kt at that time. Since then, however, a nearly\nclosed ring of cold-topped convection has developed near the center,\nso the intensity is set at 65 kt at the advisory time.\n\nLanes has made a sharp jog toward the west-northwest during the past\n6 hours, but this believed to be a short-term wobble due to the\nconvection having recently wrapped around the north side of the\nlow-level center. A return to a general westward motion of 280/13 kt\nis expected to resume shortly. The latest model guidance remains in\ngood agreement on Lane continuing move between westward and\nwest-northwestward direction for the next 3-4 days, followed by a\nturn back toward the west on day 5 as the stout subtropical ridge to\nthe north strengthens to the east and northeast of the Hawaiian\nIslands and as a broad upper-level trough north of Hawaii gradually\nlifts out toward the northeast. The new NHC forecast track has been\nshifted a little to the right or north of the previous advisory\ntrack, primarily due to the more northward initial position, and\nclosely follows the HCCA and TVCN/TVCE track consensus models.\n\nNow that a small well-defined inner core and partial eye feature\nhave developed with a radius of maximum winds of 15-20 nmi, Lane is\npoised to rapidly intensity shortly, and sustain that trend for the\nnext 36 hour so owing to the very low vertical-wind-shear and\nwarm-SST regime that the cyclone will be moving through. Although\nbrief intrusions of dry air may result in some flirtations in the\nintensity, the general trend should be for Lane to strengthen at a\nrate of at least 30 kt per 24 hours for the next 36-48 hours. After\nthat, the intensity will be modulated by inner-core/eyewall\nfluctuations that can not be forecast accurately that far in\nadvance. By days 4 and 5, however, a slow weakening trend is\nexpected due to a gradual increase in southwesterly vertical wind\nshear. Overall, though, the new NHC intensity forecast is a little\nabove the previous intensity forecast, and is above all of the\nintensity guidance. A good analog that was used for Lane's forecast\nwas recent Hurricane Hector, which exhibited similar inner-core and\noutflow characteristics, and moved through similar environmental and\noceanic conditions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 11.2N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 11.5N 131.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 12.0N 134.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 12.5N 137.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 14.4N 145.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 15.2N 149.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  22/0000Z 15.6N 153.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n500 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nErnesto is maintaining its strength and status as a tropical storm\ndespite being over very cool 21 deg C waters.  Deep convection\nremains well organized in a curved band that wraps across the\neastern half of the circulation.  The system is likely benefiting\nfrom a moist and unstable airmass, which seems to be the reason why\nErnesto has held onto tropical storm status longer than expected.\nThe initial wind speed is again held at 40 kt, using a blend of the\nlatest satellite intensity estimates.\n\nThe convective organization is not expected to last much longer as\nErnesto is tracking over steadily colder waters and will also be\nmoving into an environment of higher shear.  These hostile\nenvironmental conditions should cause the system to lose its\ntropical characteristics within the next 24 hours, when the\ncyclone is forecast to be over SSTs of around 15 deg C.  The\npost-tropical low is expected to gradually decay before it merges\nwith a frontal zone near the United Kingdom in about 48 hours.\n\nErnesto is now well embedded in fast mid-latitude flow, and the\nlatest initial motion estimate is northeastward at 22 kt.  An even\nfaster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected until\nthe system merges with the frontal zone.  The models remain tightly\nclustered, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the\nguidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 45.6N  36.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 47.8N  31.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 50.4N  23.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  18/1800Z 52.5N  14.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nLane continues to gradually strengthen.  Recent microwave images\nshow a well-defined low-level eye, but this feature is not yet\napparent in geostationary satellite images.  The latest\nsatellite images show an organized central dense overcast, but\nconvection has decreased in the outer bands.  An average of the\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 70\nkt.\n\nThe environmental factors suggest that continued steady or rapid\nstrengthening is likely during the next couple of days.  However,\nthere could be some intrusions of dry air that might interrupt the\nrate of strengthening.  Nonetheless, it seems likely that Lane will\nbecome a major hurricane within the next couple of days.  By the end\nof the forecast period, the environment looks a little less ideal\nwith drier air and an increase in shear likely causing slow\nweakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the\nprevious one, and it remains at the high end of the model guidance.\n\nAfter wobbling to the north late yesterday, Lane has resumed a more\nwestward motion at 14 kt.  The hurricane is expected to move\nwestward to west-northwestward during the next several days as it\ncontinues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  There\nis some north-south spread amongst the models with the UKMET on the\nsouthern side of the guidance and the GFS and HWRF on the northern\nside.  This spread appears to be associated with how much influence\na mid- to upper-level low off the Baja California coast has on\nLane's steering flow.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle\nof the guidance envelope, favoring the various consensus models, and\nis slightly to the left of the previous forecast track.  Lane is\nexpected to cross into the Central Pacific basin in 36 to 48 hours.\n\nThe initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted outward\nbased on a 0544 UTC ASCAT-B pass.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 11.4N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 11.8N 133.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 12.2N 136.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 13.4N 141.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 14.5N 146.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 15.0N 150.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  22/0600Z 15.5N 155.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n1100 AM AST Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nErnesto is somewhat surprisingly maintaining convection and\nwell-defined banding features over the northern and eastern\nportions of its circulation despite being over SSTs of 20-21C.  The\ncloud tops have warmed within the past couple of hours perhaps an\nindication that Ernesto is finally beginning to lose its\ntropical characteristics.  A blend of the latest satellite intensity\nestimates still supports an initial wind speed of 40 kt.\n\nErnesto will be moving over progressively colder waters during the\nnext 12-24 hours and should become post-tropical later today or\ntonight.  Little change in strength is expected during the next day\nor so while the post-tropical cyclone cyclone moves quickly across\nthe north Atlantic.  The cyclone is forecast to weaken slightly as\nit approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone that is\nexpected to be located across the central portions of the United\nKingdom and Ireland Saturday night and early Sunday.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving northeastward at 26 kt.  A slightly\nfaster northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected\nduring the next 36 hours as Ernesto remains embedded within the\nmid-latitude westerly flow. The models continue to be in good\nagreement, and the NHC track is close to the various consensus\naids.\n\nThe post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread\ngusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday.  Information on\nrainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products\nissued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in\nproducts issued by the United Kingdom Met Office\nat www.metoffice.gov/uk.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 47.1N  32.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 49.3N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  18/1200Z 51.6N  18.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  19/0000Z 53.5N  10.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number  11...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 AM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nLane's cloud pattern has improved significantly this morning, and\nthe cyclone is currently undergoing rapid intensification.  A\nwarming ragged eye is now evident in GOES-15/16 IR BD-curve\nenhancement, and a white curved band with cold tops of -70 to -75C\nwraps about 90% around the cyclone's circulation.  The Dvorak\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the objective\nanalysis support an increase of the wind speed to 85 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nLane appears poised for further rapid strengthening during\nthe next 24 hours.  Impressive outflow in all quadrants, warm SSTs,\nand the absence of earlier noted dry air intrusion all point to this\nscenario.  The peak intensity based on the hurricane models and the\nstatistical guidance is forecast to be within the next 24-36\nhours.  Afterward, the thermodynamic environment looks a little\nless conducive and the large-scale models as well as the\nstatistical intensity guidance agree that increasing westerly\nvertical shear will induce a slow weakening trend.  The official\nforecast is above the guidance during the first 36 hours, but is\nclose to the HMON hurricane model, and is hedged toward a blend of\nthe HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models through the remaining\nportion of the forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be nearly due west, or 275/14 kt.\nLane should continue to move south of a subtropical ridge in either\na westward or west-northwestward direction through the entire\nforecast period. The NHC forecast is basically an update of the\nprevious one with just a slight adjustment to the south, and is very\nclose to the TVCN and NOAA HCCA consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 11.2N 132.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 11.6N 135.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 12.1N 137.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 12.6N 140.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 13.3N 143.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 14.3N 147.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 14.8N 151.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  22/1200Z 15.3N 155.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n500 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nErnesto's cloud pattern has deteriorated since this morning with\ndeep convection decreasing in coverage and becoming a little more\nseparated from the low-level center.  However, there is still enough\norganized convection to maintain the system as a tropical cyclone a\nlittle longer.  The most recent satellite estimates and earlier\nASCAT data still support an initial intensity of 40 kt.  Ernesto\nwill continue moving over colder waters and is expected to become\npost-tropical this evening.  Little change in strength is predicted\nduring the next 12-24 hours while the system moves over quickly\nacross the northern Atlantic.  Global models indicate that the\ncyclone will weaken as it approaches Ireland Saturday night and the\nsystem should merge with a frontal zone located across the central\nportions of the United Kingdom and Ireland by Sunday morning.\n\nThe cyclone is racing northeastward at about 27 kt.  Now that the\nsystem is embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, a rapid\nnortheastward or east-northeastward motion should continue until\ndissipation occurs.  There has been little change to the track\nguidance or the official forecast which lies near the middle of the\ntightly clustered guidance envelope.\n\nThe post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread\ngusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday.  Information on\nrainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products\nissued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in\nproducts issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at\nwww.metoffice.gov/uk.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 49.1N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 51.1N  23.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  18/1800Z 53.2N  14.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  19/0600Z 54.8N   5.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nA series of microwave overpasses and conventional visible/infrared\nimagery show that Lane's inner core continues to develop rapidly.\nThe eye in the visible presentation has begun to clear out, and the\nlower frequency microwave images show a completely enclosed, solid\ninner convective ring. The subjective and objective T-numbers from\nTAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, respectively, support increasing the\ninitial intensity to 95 kt.\n\nThe intensity forecast philosophy has not changed from 6 hours ago,\nand Lane is still predicted to quickly strengthen to major hurricane\nintensity later tonight, and has the potential to become a category\n4 hurricane in 24 hours. The environment certainly appears favorable\nenough for this 24-hour trend to occur and the hurricane regional\nand statistical intensity guidance reflect strengthening, but the\nNHC forecast is much higher than the NOAA HCCA and the IVCN\nconsensus models during the first 24 hours. Beyond 36 hours, Lane\nshould begin to gradually weaken in response to increasing westerly\nshear. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is a\nblend of HCCA and IVCN at these times.\n\nThe initial motion continues to be westward or 275/14 kt. Lane is\nforecast to move south of a subtropical ridge in either a westward\nor west-northwestward direction over the next 5 days. Little change\nwas made to the official track forecast, with only minor along-track\nadjustments after 72 hours, and the NHC forecast is basically a\ncompromise of the various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 11.5N 134.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 11.7N 136.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 12.2N 139.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 12.9N 141.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 13.5N 144.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 14.4N 148.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 14.9N 152.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  22/1800Z 15.3N 156.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n1100 PM AST Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nOrganized deep convection associated with Ernesto has dissipated\nafter the issuance of the last advisory. If it does not return,\nwhich seems unlikely with the system moving over SSTs of 16C or\nless, Ernesto should become a post-tropical cyclone by early\nSaturday.\n\nGeostationary and microwave imagery along with ASCAT data indicate\nthat the mid-level circulation has begun to separate from the\nlow-level center. A partial ASCAT-A pass from 2148 UTC showed a\nlarge area of 35-40 kt winds south and southeast of the center, and\non that basis the initial intensity remains 40 kt. Ernesto is\nforecast to weaken only a little during the next 24 hours while it\napproaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone Saturday night.\nThe post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it\nmoves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early\nSunday.\n\nErnesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt and this motion\nshould continue until dissipation. The new NHC forecast is close to\nthe previous one and lies near the middle of the tightly clustered\nguidance envelope.\n\nThe post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread\ngusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom Saturday night and early Sunday. Information on\nrainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products\nissued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in\nproducts issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at\nwww.metoffice.gov/uk.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 50.4N  25.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 52.3N  18.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  19/0000Z 54.1N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 PM PDT Fri Aug 17 2018\n\nLane has continued to rapidly intensify during the past several\nhours, with the eye gradually becoming better defined and the\ncentral dense overcast surrounding the eye becoming larger.\nSatellite intensity estimates have increased to a range of 100-115\nkt, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to 105 kt\nin best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique.\nThe hurricane currently has good outflow in all directions and\nthere is a large area of outer banding, primarily in the\nsoutheastern semicircle.\n\nThe first portion of the intensity forecast is a bit problematic.\nWith the exception of the HMON model, none of the intensity\nguidance shows much additional strengthening.  However, except for\nthe possibility of some dry air wrapping around the west side of\nthe central convection, there is no apparent reason why the current\nrapid intensification should stop that quickly.  The intensity\nforecast will show 12 h more of rapid intensification, followed by\na period of little change from 12-48 h.  This portion of the\nintensity forecast lies above all of the guidance.  After 48 h,\nLane should start to encounter westerly shear, which should\nincrease by the end of the forecast period and cause the cyclone to\nsteadily weaken.  This portion of the intensity forecast lies near\nor a little above the intensity consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/14.  Lane is forecast to move south of a\nsubtropical ridge in either a westward or west-northwestward\ndirection over the next 5 days, with some decrease in forward speed\nby 72-120 h as the ridge weakens slightly.  There is some spread in\nthe guidance by 120 h, with the GFS and the NAVGEM models on the\nnorth side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF model and UKMET\nEnsemble mean on the south side.  As in the previous advisory,\nlittle change was made to the forecast track which lies close to\nthe center of the guidance envelope and the consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 11.8N 135.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 12.2N 137.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 12.7N 140.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 13.9N 145.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 14.5N 149.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  22/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  23/0000Z 15.5N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052018\n500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018\n\nErnesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation\nis becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto\nhas become a post-tropical cyclone.  The system could still produce\n35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to\nslowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland\nand merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical\ncyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland\nand portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday.\n\nErnesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion\nshould continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance.\n\nThe post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread\ngusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and\nwind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met\nEireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued\nby the United Kingdom Met Office at\nwww.metoffice.gov/uk.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 51.9N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 12H  18/1800Z 53.5N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  19/0600Z 55.0N   5.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Lane has improved significantly during\nthe past several hours with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep\nconvection and symmetric outflow. T-numbers from both TAFB and\nSAB are 6.0 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the initial\nintensity has been increased to 115 kt.  The hurricane is moving\nwithin an environment of light shear, and this should allow some\nadditional strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that\ntime, guidance suggests that a slight weakening should begin\nperhaps to a modest increase in shear.  The NHC forecast does\nnot weaken Lane as fast as indicated by the intensity guidance.\n\nLane continues to move toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at\n14 kt, steered by the trade winds south of the subtropical high.\nSince the steering pattern is not expected to change much, this\ngeneral motion should continue during the next 3 to 5 days. An\nexpected weakening of the trades should result in a small decrease\nin the hurricane's forward speed. Track models are tightly clustered\nduring the first 72 hours, and this increases the confidence in the\nforecast. After that time, the model agreement is not as good,\nresulting in a wider guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the\nnorth and ECMWF to the south. The NHC forecast follows very closely\nthe multi-model ensemble and the corrected consensus HCCA which are\nin the middle of the envelope. No significant changes were made to\nthe previous NHC forecast\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 12.1N 137.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 13.7N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z 14.5N 149.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  22/0600Z 14.8N 153.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  23/0600Z 15.7N 156.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n800 AM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018\n\nLane's inner-core convective organization has continued to improve\nwith satellite intensity estimates vacillating between T6.0/115 kt\nand T6.5/127 kt during the past 6 hours. The 15-nmi-diameter eye\nremains quiet distinct and is embedded within a solid ring of cloud\ntops colder than -70 deg C. An average of the various intensity\nestimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON support\nincreasing the intensity to 120 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/13 kt. There has been little\nchange in the models over the past couple of days, and the latest\nNHC guidance, especially the consensus track models, required no\nsignificant changes to the previous advisory track. The large\nexpansive subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is\nforecast to remain intact and gradually build westward to the north\nof the Hawaiian Islands throughout the 120-h forecast period. As a\nresult, Lane is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 48\nhours or so, and then turn westward by day 3, maintaining that\nmotion on days 4 and 5. The official forecast track lies close to a\nblend of the HCCA, TVCE, and FSSE consensus models. On the forecast\ntrack, Hurricane Lane is expected to move into the Central Pacific\nbasin in about 9 hours at around 0000 UTC.\n\nAlthough Lane will be remaining over 27.0-27.5 deg C SSTs during\nthe forecast period, increasing westerly to northwesterly vertical\nwind shear to around 15 kt, along with a slightly drier mid-level\nenvironment, is expected to induce slow but steady weakening by 24\nhours. Although Lane could strengthen a little more before the\nprolonged weakening begins, the general intensity trend should be\ndownward. However, the rate of weakening is held a little above the\nintensity guidance owing to the warmer SSTs indicated by raw data\nthan what the SHIPS model guidance is using.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 12.3N 138.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 12.8N 140.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 13.4N 142.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 13.8N 144.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 14.1N 146.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 14.5N 150.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 14.9N 153.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  23/1200Z 15.8N 157.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP142018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lane Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142018\n200 PM PDT Sat Aug 18 2018\n\nLane remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite\nimagery.  The distinct 15 nmi-wide eye is surrounded by a ring\nof convection with clouds tops around -65 to -70C.  The clouds\ntops have warmed slightly but the subjective and objective Dvorak\nCurrent Intensity (CI) numbers are unchanged so the initial\nintensity is maintained at 120 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe hurricane continues moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.\nA large subtropical ridge to the north of Lane should keep the\nhurricane on a west-northwestward to westward heading during the\nnext 24 hours.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to build\nwestward which is expected to take Lane on a more westward course\nbetween 36 and 72 hours.  By day 4, Lane will be approaching the\nwestern portion of the ridge which should result in a turn back\ntoward the west-northwest.   The lastest iterations of the UKMET\nand GFS models have shifted southward but remain along the northern\nside of the guidance envelope.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains along\nthe southern side of the guidance and also depicts a much faster\nforward speed.  The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted\nslightly southward to be near the latest consensus aids.\n\nThe intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous\nadvisory.  Lane will be moving over SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius\nthroughout the forecast period, but some west to northwesterly\nvertical shear is expected to affect the hurricane.  As a result,\ngradually weakening is indicated in the official forecast over the\nnext few days.  A more significant increase in shear late in the\nforecast period could result in a faster rate of weakening at days\n4 and 5.   The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the\nguidance during the first 24 to 48 hours, and then is closest to\nthe HFIP corrected consensus later in the period.\n\nLane will move into the Central Pacific Basin very soon and this is\nlast NHC advisory on this system.  Future information on Lane can be\nfound in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center\nbeginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2, WMO\nheader WTPA32 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc .\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 12.5N 139.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 12.9N 141.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 13.4N 143.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 13.7N 145.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 13.9N 147.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 14.1N 151.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 14.8N 154.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  23/1800Z 15.9N 158.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018\n\nVarious satellite data over the past several hours, including recent\nASCAT scatterometer surface-wind data, indicate that the\nwell-defined low pressure area located about 1000 nmi southwest of\nthe southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much\nbetter organized, and has developed into a tropical depression. A\nsmall CDO-like feature has formed over the well-defined center\ndepicted in the ASCAT data, and a recent burst of cold cloud tops of\n-80C have also developed just west of the center. The initial\nintensity of 30 kt is based on 0458Z and 0558Z ASCAT wind data,\nwhich indicated winds of 28-30 kt were located 35-40 nmi west and\nsouthwest of the low-level center.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The depression is expected\nto remain south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge for the\nnext 96 hours, resulting in a general westward motion at a slightly\nfaster forward speed. By day 5, the cyclone is forecast to move into\na break in the ridge created by a broad mid-/upper-level trough that\nis forecast to dig southward out of the northern Pacific between\n140W-145W longitude. The forecast track lies essentially down the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope, which is just north of the\nconsensus model TVCE and the GFS model, but south of the ECMWF and\nUKMET models. The HRWF and HMON models were not being available for\nthe TVCE consensus on this cycle, so some significant adjustments to\nthe track in the next advisory may be required.\n\nThe cyclone has a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 35-40 nmi based\non the recent ASCAT data. The combination of the modest RMW, low\nvertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a very moist mid-level\nenvironment, and sea-surface temperatures above 28 deg C, favors\nsteady intensification and even the possibility of rapid\nstrengthening. Since this is the first forecast, however, the\nintensity forecast is on the conservative side and calls for a\nclimatological increase of one T-number or 20 kt every 24 h for the\nnext 48 hours, which is above all of the intensity guidance except\nfor the Navy COAMPS (CTCI) model. By 96-120 hours, the intensity is\nleveled off due to possible entrainment of drier air and an increase\nin southwesterly vertical wind shear.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 13.3N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n800 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018\n\nDeep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued\nto become better organized this morning, with a significant increase\nin banding noted in conventional satellite imagery.  An earlier\nAMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed the increase in banding, but\nthe low-level center was located near the northeastern portion of\nthe main convective mass.  A Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of\nT2.5 (35 k) was the basis for the 1200 UTC synoptic intensity, but\nwith the continued increase in organization, the initial wind speed\nfor this advisory has been set to 40 kt.\n\nMiriam is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The tropical storm should\nremain on a general westward heading during the next few days while\nit remains to the south of a deep-layer ridge.  The orientation of\nthe ridge may shift more west-southwestward within the next day or\nso, which could steer the tropical storm on a track slightly south\nof due west.  The bulk of the dynamical model guidance has shifted\nsouthward, so the NHC forecast track has been adjusted accordingly\nthrough the first 3 days.  After that time, a weakness in the\nsubtropical ridge between 140W-145W longitude is expected to cause\nMiriam to turn northwestward, then north-northwestward by the end\nof the forecast period.  The latter portion of the official forecast\nis similar to the previous advisory and is in best agreement with\nthe HFIP corrected consensus model.\n\nThe environment ahead of Miriam is expected to remain favorable for\nstrengthening.  The tropical storm will be traversing SSTs of 27-28C\nand within low vertical wind shear conditions.   The NHC intensity\nforecast calls for steady intensification during the next few days\nand is at the upper-end of the intensity guidance.  Although the\nvarious rapid intensification prediction techniques are not\nparticularly bullish, perhaps due to the low initial intensity of\nthe cyclone, it would not be surprising if the tropical storm went\nthrough a period of rapid intensification within the next couple of\ndays.  The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the more aggressive\nHWRF and HMON dynamical models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 13.2N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 13.3N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 13.5N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 13.5N 133.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 13.5N 137.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  31/1200Z 18.5N 142.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018\n\nMiriam continues to gradually become better organized.  The latest\nvisible satellite images show a well-defined curved band that wraps\nabout three-quarters of the way around the center.  Despite the\nimprovement in organization, very recent ASCAT passes show maximum\nwinds of about 35 kt.  Therefore, the initial wind speed is held at\n40 kt as a compromise between the ASCAT data and the higher\nDvorak-based estimates.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving westward at about 12 kt.  This westward\nmotion should continue during the next few days while a deep-layer\nridge remains anchored to the north of the tropical cyclone.  After\nthat time, the storm is forecast to turn to the northwest and then\nthe north as a mid- to upper-level low causes a significant break in\nthe subtropical ridge.  Although the models agree on this scenario,\nthere are some differences in where and when Miriam will make the\nnorthward turn.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the\nguidance envelope, near the consensus aids.\n\nSteady strengthening is likely during the next couple of days due to\nthe favorable environmental factors of low wind shear, high levels\nof moisture, and warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C.  The latest intensity\nmodels all show Miriam becoming a hurricane, and the HWRF model\nshows the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength.  The NHC\nintensity forecast continues to lean toward the higher end of the\nmodel guidance, and it is in best agreement with HFIP Corrected\nConsensus Approach model.  By the end of the forecast period, when\nMiriam begins gaining latitude, slow weakening is expected due\nto a decrease in SSTs and higher shear.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 13.6N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 13.6N 128.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 13.7N 130.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 13.7N 132.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 13.7N 134.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 13.7N 138.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 15.8N 141.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  31/1800Z 19.7N 141.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n800 PM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018\n\nThe overall cloud pattern of Miriam has continued to gradually\nimprove this evening.  However, light northerly shear of about 10\nkt, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS, seems to be preventing the cyclone from\nstrengthening at a more rapid pace.  Earlier ASCAT data and a more\nrecent partial AMSR overpass indicated that the low-level center of\nMiriam is slightly displaced to the northwest of most of the deep\nconvection, but is still well-embedded within the cirrus canopy.  A\nconsensus of objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates\nsuggests that Miriam has strengthened a little since the last\nadvisory, so the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.\n\nThe tropical storm is still moving westward at around 12 kt, and all\nindications are that this motion will continue for the next few\ndays.  By day 4, Miriam should turn northward as it reaches a break\nin the subtropical ridge created by an extensive mid- to upper-level\nlow located over the central North Pacific.  The track guidance is\nin good agreement on this general scenario, but still differs on the\nexact timing and location of the northward turn.  The NHC forecast\ntherefore remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is\nessentially a blend of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids and the\nprevious forecast.\n\nSteady strengthening is still likely for the next day or two. While\nMiriam's structure does not appear to be conducive for rapid\nintensification at the moment, this could change quickly and with\nlittle warning due to the small size of the cyclone's inner-core.\nThe model spread increases from 36 h onward, with the dynamical\nmodels indicating continued intensification to major hurricane\nstrength, while the statistical guidance is much lower. Regardless\nof Miriam's peak intensity, by the end of the forecast, steady\nweakening is likely as Miriam encounters lower SSTs and higher\nshear.  The NHC forecast continues to favor the higher dynamical\nmodels for the first couple of days, and closely follows the\nintensity consensus after that.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 13.8N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 13.9N 129.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 13.7N 131.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 13.8N 134.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 13.9N 136.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 14.3N 139.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  31/0000Z 16.8N 141.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018\n\nMiriam's cloud pattern and overall convective organization have\ncontinued to improve, with a tight comma-cloud pattern now evident\nin infrared imagery.  Two recent ASCAT passes around 0600Z indicate\nthat the low-level center is now located just inside the northwest\nquadrant of the convective comma head, and that the radius of\nmaximum winds (RMW) is still about 20 nmi that was ascertained from\nearlier passive microwave low-level ring data. The ASCAT data\nindicated peak winds of only 37 kt, but this is likely an\nunderestimate of Miriam's actual intensity due to a) the data having\nbeen located near the swath edge and b) due to Miriam's small RMW.\nThe advisory intensity of 50 kt is based on a average of subjective\nand objective satellite intensity estimates that range from T3.0/45\nkt to T3.6/57 kt, respectively. The previous advisory's 34-kt wind\nradii remain unchanged based on the aforementioned ASCAT wind data.\n\nMiriam is now moving due west or 270/13 kt. There are no significant\nchanges to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone is\nexpected to maintain a general westward motion for the next 72 h as\nMiriam moves along the southern periphery of a strong ridge to its\nnorth. By 96 h and beyond, Miriam is forecast to move northward to\nnorth-northwestward through a break in the subtropical ridge near\ncreated by a strong mid- to upper-level trough/low forecast to drop\nsouthward between 140W-150W from the upper-low's current position\nover the central North Pacific. The latest model guidance has come\ninto better agreement on both the timing and location of the\nnorthward turn, although noticeable speed differences still exist,\nwith the ECMWF and UKMET being the faster models. The NHC official\nforecast track lies close to the previous advisory track, and is\njust a tad north of the HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN consensus models.\n\nSteady strengthening still appears likely for the next couple of\ndays. Miriam's upper-level outflow has improved some and is less\nrestricted in the northwest quadrant, a signal that the shear is\nbeginning to relax, which would support steady or significant\nstrengthening in the short term. By 36-48 h, however, the shear is\nforecast by the global models to again increase to 15-20 kt from the\nnorthwest, which should inhibit the intensification process during\nthat time. Around 72 h, the shear is expected to decrease yet again,\nfollowed by another increase in the shear. Rather than showing\nroller-coaster fluctuations, the NHC intensity forecast just calls\nfor steady strengthening through 48-72 h, followed by a gradual\nweakening trend, which mirrors the previous advisory trend and is\nclose to an average of the HCCA and FSSE intensity models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 13.9N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 13.9N 130.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 13.8N 133.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 13.8N 135.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 14.0N 137.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 14.7N 140.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 141.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  01/0600Z 22.0N 142.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n800 AM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018\n\nThe convective structure of Miriam has become better organized\nthis morning, with a continued increase in overall banding.  An\nearlier AMSR2 microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined band\nover the southeastern and southern portions of the circulation but\nthere was some evidence of northwesterly shear with the center near\nthe northwestern edge of the primary convective band.  The initial\nintensity has been increased to 55 kt, which is supported by a\nDvorak Data T-number of 3.5 from TAFB, earlier AMSU data, and\nrecent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates of T3.7 (59 kt).\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Miriam is moving westward or 270\ndegrees at 12 kt.  The cyclone should remain on a westward heading\nover the next 48 hours while it is steered by a large deep-layer\nridge to the north.  After that time, a large mid- to upper-level\nlow to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to produce\na break in the ridge between 140W-150W.  This should cause Miriam to\nturn northwestward, then north-northwestward between days 3 through\n5.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but\nthere are some differences in Miriam's forward speed after\nrecurvature begins.  The ECMWF and UKMET take Miriam much faster\nnorthward than the remainder of the dynamical models, and the NHC\ntrack forecast is once again close to the various consensus aids at\n72 h and beyond to account for the speed differences.\n\nThe global models suggest that there will be a gradual increase in\nnorthwesterly shear over Miriam during the next day or so, however,\nthis is not expected to prevent the cyclone from becoming a\nhurricane within the next 24 hours.  The moderate shear is forecast\nto relax by Tuesday night, which should allow for additional\nintensification.  The intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive\nas before, and the NHC intensity forecast, which lies between the\nIVCN intensity consensus model and the HFIP corrected consensus, has\nbeen adjusted slightly downward.  Increasingly southwesterly\nvertical wind shear and cooler waters are expected to cause Miriam\nto weaken late in the forecast period.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 13.9N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 13.9N 132.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 13.8N 134.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 13.9N 136.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 15.5N 140.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  31/1200Z 18.7N 141.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  01/1200Z 23.3N 143.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018\n\nMiriam has become a little better organized since the last advisory,\nand the convective banding has become better defined around the\nlow-level center.  However, this has not yet resulted in an\nincrease of the various satellite intensity estimates, which remain\nmostly near 55 kt.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains a\npossibly conservative 55 kt.  Satellite imagery continues to\nindicate northwesterly to northerly vertical shear affecting Miriam,\nwith cirrus clouds from the outer band to the north blowing into the\ncentral convection.\n\nThe initial motion is 270/13.  A large low- to mid-level ridge to\nthe north of Miriam should continue to steer it westward for the\nnext 36-48 h with some decrease in forward speed.  After that,\na large mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian\nIslands is expected to cause the ridge to break between 140W-150W,\nwith Miriam turning northwestward and north-northwestward in\nresponse.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this\nscenario, but there remain some differences in Miriam's forward\nspeed after recurvature between the faster ECMWF/UKMET and the\nslower GFS.  The new forecast track is similar to the previous\ntrack through 72 h, then is nudged a little to the east based on an\neastward shift in the consensus models.\n\nThe global models continue to suggest a gradual increase in\nnorthwesterly shear over Miriam during the next day or so, followed\nby decreased shear from 24-48 h.  There is some divergence in the\nintensity guidance through 72 h, with the SHIPS/LGEM models showing\nless strengthening than the HWRF/HMON/corrected consensus models.\nThis part of the new intensity forecast is little changed from the\nprevious forecast and lies between these two model camps. After\n72 h, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected\nto cause Miriam to weaken.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 14.0N 131.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 14.0N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 13.9N 135.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 14.0N 137.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 16.5N 141.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  31/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  01/1800Z 24.5N 143.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n800 PM PDT Mon Aug 27 2018\n\nMiriam hasn't changed much over the past several hours. Last-light\nvisible imagery and a couple of microwave overpasses around 0000 UTC\nshow that the tropical storm remains lightly sheared from the\nnorthwest. Although outflow from the deepest inner-core convection\nseems to have become better established, cloud tops from outer bands\nto the north and east are still moving toward the center of the\ncyclone, indicating there is still shear below the outflow layer.\nThe initial intensity has been held at 55 kt, in agreement with\nnearly all of the objective and subjective satellite estimates.\n\nMiriam continues to move westward, and the forward speed is now 10\nkt. The guidance remains in very good agreement on the track of\nMiriam for the next 36 hours, with only slight speed differences\nbetween the various models.  Beyond that time, the tropical storm\nshould begin to turn north-northwestward toward a break in the\nsubtropical ridge created by a mid- to upper-level trough over the\ncentral Pacific.  The model spread increases drastically at this\npoint, with the ECMWF showing a quicker turn and a faster\nnorth-northwestward motion than the GFS, with most of the other\nguidance in between.  For now, the NHC forecast has not been\nsignificantly changed, and remains near the corrected consensus,\nHCCA.\n\nThe moderate shear currently affecting Miriam is forecast by the\nglobal models to continue for the next 24 h or so, preventing the\ncyclone from strengthening significantly.  Between 24 and 72 h, this\nshear is forecast to decrease, allowing the cyclone to strengthen at\na quicker rate.  By the end of the forecast period, Miriam should\nquickly weaken as it encounters higher shear and cooler SSTs.  The\nHWRF is a notable outlier, showing much faster intensification, but\nit is possible this model is not properly representing the shear\ncurrently affecting Miriam.  That said, if the shear decreases\nsooner than expected, it is possible that Miriam could intensify\nmuch faster than currently anticipated.  The new NHC intensity\nforecast is close to the intensity consensus, and shows a slightly\nslower initial intensification rate for Miriam, and a faster decay\nby day 5, than the previous advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 14.0N 132.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 14.0N 134.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 14.0N 136.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 14.2N 138.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  31/0000Z 17.5N 141.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z 21.5N 142.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  02/0000Z 26.0N 144.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018\n\nMiriam's cloud pattern has still not improved very much, with\nmicrowave data showing the low-level center still slightly\ndisplaced from the deep convection due to about 10 kt of\nnorthwesterly shear.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well\nas the UW-CIMSS SATCON, all remain near 55 kt, which will remain\nMiriam's initial intensity.  Miriam is expected to remain over warm\nwaters and in a relatively low-shear environment for the next 48-72\nhours, which should allow the cyclone to strengthen modestly over\nthe next few days.  At 72 hours and beyond, Miriam will encounter\nsignificantly stronger shear ahead of an amplifying mid- to\nupper-level trough northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, and the\ncyclone will also move over sub-26C waters.  These conditions should\ncause a rather quick weakening trend on days 4 and 5, with Miriam\nbarely hanging on as a tropical storm by the end of the forecast\nperiod.  The intensity guidance has decreased somewhat on this\nforecast cycle, probably because Miriam has less time before it\nreaches stronger shear.  The updated NHC intensity forecast lies\nbetween the HCCA guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus, with the\nforecast peak intensity just slightly below that of the previous\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion is due westward, or 270/10 kt, with Miriam\nlocated along the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  The\namplifying trough northeast of Hawaii is breaking down the ridge and\nshould cause Miriam to turn sharply toward the northwest and north\nbetween days 2 and 4.  There are significant speed differences among\nthe models by days 4 and 5, related to how deep Miriam is when it\ninteracts with the deep-layer trough.  The ECMWF, which maintains a\ndeeper, stronger vortex, shoots Miriam quickly northward, ending up\nmore than 600-700 nm north of where the GFS and HWRF models have the\ncyclone by day 5.  Given where the consensus aids lie between those\ntwo extremes, the updated NHC track forecast has been slowed down a\nbit from the previous forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 14.0N 133.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 14.0N 135.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 14.1N 137.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 14.4N 138.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 15.1N 140.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  31/0600Z 17.9N 141.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  02/0600Z 26.0N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n800 AM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018\n\nA very recently arriving high-resolution microwave overpass\nindicates that Miriam is a sheared tropical cyclone.  The GPM pass\nshows that the center of Miriam is located well northwest of the\nprimary mass of deep convection due to moderate northwesterly\nshear.  The center of the cyclone is located well west of the\nearlier position estimates, which has also required a re-location.\nThe most recent Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as\nUW-CIMSS/ADT, support an initial intensity, however, this could be\ngenerous given the recent microwave data.\n\nEnvironmental conditions are not expected to change over the next\n24 hours, with possibly a slight reduction in the shear in 24 to 48\nhours.  This would suggest that Miriam should only gradually\nstrengthen over the next couple of days and it is likely to reach\nits peak intensity in 2-3 days.  After that time, increasing\nsouthwesterly shear and cooler waters are expected to initiate\nweakening.  By 96 hours, the shear is forecast to become quite\nstrong and Miriam will be moving over sub 26C SSTs. These\nprogressively hostile conditions should cause Miriam to become\na post-tropical cyclone by 120 hours. The latest intensity forecast\nis close to the FSU Superensemble, and generally in between the ICON\nand HCCA consensus models.\n\nThe initial motion continues to be due westward, or 270/12 kt,\nas Miriam continues to be steered around the southern periphery of\na subtropical ridge.  A mid- to upper-level trough northeast of\nHawaii will weaken the western periphery of the ridge over the next\ncouple of days, and Miriam is forecast to turn northwest then\nnorth-northwest, between the ridge and the aforementioned trough.\nForecast models diverge regarding the forward speed of Miriam\nat days 3-5, depending how they handle the interaction of Miriam\nwith the the trough to its northwest. The ECMWF continues to favor\nan accelerating northward track as Miriam gets caught in strong\nsoutherly flow on the eastern side of the trough. The GFS is much\nfarther southwestward, as it appears to take a more shallow Miriam\nwestward later in the forecast period.  Since the consensus\naids remain clustered between these two scenarios, the latest\nforecast NHC track is once again near the various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 14.2N 135.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 14.2N 136.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 14.3N 138.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 14.7N 140.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 15.6N 141.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 18.5N 141.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 22.0N 142.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  02/1200Z 26.0N 144.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018\n\nSince the previous scatterometer pass around 0430 UTC, the satellite\npresentation has improved significantly. The cloud pattern now\nconsists of a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands, with\nthe center of the system located on the northeastern edge of a\ncircular area of thunderstorms, as indicated by a GMI microwave pass\nat 1201 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are\nT2.5 and T2.0, respectively, on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis,\nadvisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E with an\ninitial intensity of 30 kt.\n\nThe depression has plenty of time to intensify given that the\nenvironmental conditions of warm ocean and light shear are expected\nto prevail during the next 5 days. The NHC forecast calls for the\ndepression to become a hurricane in about 2 days with additional\nstrengthening thereafter. The forecast is very close to the\nintensity consensus model, and follows the trend of most of the\nguidance.\n\nSince genesis has just occurred, the initial motion is somewhat\nuncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 295\ndegrees at 9 kt. The depression is currently located on the\nsouthwestern edge of a subtropical high, and this flow pattern will\ncontinue to steer the depression on the same general track during\nthe next day or two. After that time, the nose of the ridge is\nexpected to amplify, and will force the cyclone to turn toward the\nwest or even west-southwest. This is very consistent with the track\nguidance, and the NHC forecast lies in between the HCCA corrected\nconsensus model and the other consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 17.1N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018\n\nNorthwesterly shear has taken a toll on Miriam, with visible\nsatellite imagery depicting an exposed low-level center located\nnorthwest of the deep convection.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers have\ndecreased to 3.0 by both SAB and TAFB, and a blend of the T- and\nCI-numbers yields an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.\n\nModel guidance suggests that the northwesterly shear that is\ncurrently affecting the cyclone will continue for at least the\nnext 24 hours, but it could diminish slightly by late Wednesday,\nallowing for some modest strengthening in 36 to 48 hours.\nThereafter, a mid- to upper-level trough to the northwest of the\ncyclone is expected to bring about increasing southwesterly shear\nover the system, which is expected to cause steady weakening in 3\nto 4 days.  The cyclone is then expected to become a post-tropical\ncyclone by 120 hours as shear increases even further, and the system\ncrosses cooler SSTs.  The official intensity forecast has been\nlowered for much of the forecast period, reflecting both the\nlowering of the initial intensity and the expected continuation of\nthe shear.  Although not explicitly shown in the official forecast,\nthere is still some chance that Miriam could reach hurricane status\nin a couple of days, before the shear increases.\n\nThe initial motion continues to be due west, or 270/11 kt,\nas Miriam continues to be steered around the southern periphery of\na subtropical ridge. The track forecast philosophy for the next few\ndays remains unchanged as the aforementioned mid- to upper-level\ntrough northeast of Hawaii weakens the western periphery of the\nridge, and Miriam is forecast to turn northwestward then\nnorth-northwestward between the trough and ridge.  There continues\nto be a large spread in the guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF and\nUKMET taking a more vertically coherent system northward, while the\nGFS, HWRF, and HMON turn Miriam westward as the system weakens and\nbecomes a more shallow system.  The latter scenario is beginning to\nseem more plausible and the NHC track forecast was adjusted\nsouthward and westward, but additional changes may be required\nif future forecasts shown a faster rate of demise.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 14.1N 136.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 14.2N 138.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 16.1N 141.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  31/1800Z 19.3N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 22.6N 143.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 26.0N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern is a little better organized this afternoon with\nnumerous banding features, but the latest available microwave data\nsuggest that the cyclone does not have an inner core yet. Since the\nsatellite intensity estimates have not changed from earlier today,\nthe winds are kept at 30 kt in this advisory.\n\nThe cyclone is expected to continue within an environment of low\nshear and high SSTs for the next several days. On this basis, the\nNHC forecast calls for strengthening, and for the depression to\nreach hurricane status in about 36 hours with additional\nintensification thereafter. The HWRF is still the most aggressive\nmodel and forecasts the depression to become a very strong\nhurricane.  The official forecast follows the remainder of the\nguidance, which supports a more modest intensification.\n\nBased on satellite fixes, the initial motion is toward the\nwest-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The cyclone is located south\nof a strong subtropical ridge which is forecast by the global models\nto remain strong and expand westward. This flow pattern should force\nthe cyclone to turn more to west and even toward the west-southwest\nduring the next 5 days.  Since models are in good agreement with\nthis reasonable solution, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the\nguidance envelope, and very close to the HCCA corrected consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 17.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 18.0N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  31/1800Z 17.8N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n800 PM PDT Tue Aug 28 2018\n\nThere's been little change in the overall cloud pattern of Miriam\nduring the past several hours.  An earlier Advanced Technology\nMicrowave Sounder (ATMS) overpass and a 2053 UTC GCOM-W1 AMSR2 image\nindicate that the surface center is still sheared to the northwest\nof the deep convective banding feature encompassing the southern\nportion of the cyclone.  Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from\nTAFB and SAB remain unchanged, and a 2213 UTC SATCON analysis\nshowed 51 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is held\nat 50 kt.\n\nThe intensity forecast is rather problematic this evening.\nDecay SHIPS guidance (both GFS and ECMWF background fields) shows\nthe moderate northwesterly shear increasing after 48 hours, while\nindicating little change in strength up to that period.  After that\ntime, these statistical/dynamical guidance models quickly degenerate\nthe cyclone into a remnant low in 4 days.  The NOAA-HCCA, HWRF, and\nthe IVCN consensus model, on the other hand, all show Miriam\nbecoming a hurricane in 36-48 hours.  For this advisory, I've\nelected to maintain continuity and show gradual strengthening to\njust below hurricane strength in 36 hours, with a weakening trend\ncommencing in 3 days.  All the deterministic models agree with\nMiriam becoming a remnant low in 5 days, and this is reflected in\nthe NHC forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/11 kt,\nwithin the easterly mid-level steering flow produced by a\nmid-tropospheric high to the north of Miriam.  The cyclone is\nexpected to turn toward the northwest in 36 hours, then\nrather abruptly north-northwestward in 2 days and continuing on\nthrough day 4, in response to a large mid- to upper level cutoff low\ndigging southwestward toward the Hawaiian Islands.  A large spread\nin the models still exists in the latter portion of the forecast, as\nmentioned in the previous advisory.  The track forecast philosophy\nremains unchanged with a nudge more toward a blend of the TVCN\nconsensus and the global models that show a gradual turn back toward\nthe northwest due to a shallower vertical structure near the end of\nthe period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 14.1N 137.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 14.2N 138.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 14.5N 140.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 15.4N 141.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 16.7N 141.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 20.2N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 23.4N 143.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 26.5N 146.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norman Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n900 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018\n\nThe tropical cyclone has become significantly better organized over\nthe past several hours.  A band of very cold-topped convection now\nspirals well over halfway around the circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers\nfrom both TAFB and SAB are up to 3.0, which corresponds to a\ncurrent intensity of 45 kt.  On this basis the system is being\nupgraded to a tropical storm, making Norman the fourteenth named\ntropical cyclone of this busy eastern North Pacific hurricane\nseason.  Since Norman will continue to move over warm waters and\nthrough an environment of low vertical shear and moist mid-level\nair, continued strengthening is likely.  In fact, the various Rapid\nIntensification (RI) Indices show high probabilities of RI.\nTherefore the official forecast shows intensity changes of 30 and 35\nkt per day from 0-24 hours and 24-48 hours respectively.  This is\nalso close to the simple intensity consensus but below the HFIP\nCorrected Consensus and the latest HWRF model run.\n\nThe most recent geostationary and microwave satellite center fixes\nindicate that Norman is located a little south and southwest of the\nprevious track, but the initial motion estimate remains about the\nsame as before, 290/9 kt.  The cyclone is moving along the southern\nperiphery of a large mid-level ridge which is expanding westward.\nThis should cause the system to turn toward the west very soon.\nLater in the period, the ridge builds a little to the southwest and\nthis will likely cause Norman to turn toward the west-southwest.\nThe official track forecast is a little south of the previous one,\nbut close to the latest simple and corrected model consensus\npredictions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 17.5N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 18.3N 118.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 18.1N 120.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018\n\nAt face value, Miriam seems to be getting a little better\norganized.  Its convective canopy has been expanding during the\npast few hours, and continuous lightning strokes have been detected\nwithin a well-defined mid-level circulation.  However, a 0637 UTC\nMETOP-B microwave pass shows that Miriam remains a sheared cyclone,\nwith the low-level center running out ahead of the deep convection.\nStill, with the expanding convection, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\nSAB have risen to T3.5, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt.\n\nMiriam is moving westward, or 275/11 kt, near the western end of\nthe subtropical ridge.  A deep-layer low located northeast of the\nHawaiian Islands is expected to cause Miriam to slow down and turn\nsharply northwestward and northward during the next 48 hours.  The\nmodels are in excellent agreement on this scenario.  After day 3,\nhowever, there are significant differences among the guidance, with\nthe GFS taking a shallow cyclone almost due westward and the ECMWF\ncontinuing to accelerate a deeper Miriam northward on the east side\nof the deep-layer low.  With these models being the most acute\noutliers, the NHC forecast track thinking continues to lie close to\nthe tight clustering of the Florida State Superensemble, HCCA, and\nTVCX consensus aids.\n\nThere is also greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity\nforecast.  The SHIPS and LGEM models show northwesterly shear\npersisting over Miriam and only strengthen the cyclone slightly\nduring the next 24-36 hours.  The HWRF and HCCA models are still\nshowing more significant strengthening, making Miriam a hurricane\nover the next day or two.  I was tempted to explicitly show Miriam\nbecoming a hurricane in the official forecast, but I decided to hold\noff since the cyclone just hasn't been able to display an improved\nstructure as of yet.  Even if some strengthening does occur,\nvertical shear is expected to increase substantially from 48 hours\nonward, which will cause fast weakening and Miriam likely\ndegenerating into a remnant low by day 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 14.2N 138.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 14.4N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 14.9N 141.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 15.8N 141.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  31/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 20.4N 142.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  02/0600Z 23.0N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  03/0600Z 26.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norman Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n300 AM MDT Wed Aug 29 2018\n\nEven though there has been a dearth of microwave imagery overnight,\nNorman's infrared satellite signature has the look of a cyclone\nready to strengthen significantly over the next couple of days.\nBanding continues to increase, with the convective canopy expanding\nin nearly all quadrants.  Norman's initial intensity is set at 50\nkt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Ocean\nwaters of nearly 30 degrees Celsius and low shear for the next\ncouple of days are offering an ideal environment for Norman to\nrapidly intensify.  The various Rapid Intensification (RI) indices\ncontinue to show high probabilities, and overall the new intensity\nguidance is higher than the previous forecast during the first\n36 hours.  Based on these numbers, the updated NHC intensity\nforecast has been bumped upward, close to the Florida State\nSuperensemble and intensity consensus aids, but still not nearly as\nhigh as the HWRF or HCCA models.  It wouldn't be surprising at all\nfor the forecast intensities to be increased further in subsequent\nadvisory packages, and Norman is likely to become a hurricane later\ntoday.\n\nNorman is moving westward, or 275/9 kt, to the south of the\nsubtropical ridge, which extends westward from northern Mexico.\nThe ridge is forecast to build westward during the next few days,\ncausing Norman to continue westward--or even west-southwestward--at\na fairly steady pace for the next 4-5 days.  Except for the GFS,\nwhich appears to be a bit of a northern outlier, the remainder of\nthe track guidance is tightly clustered, at least for the first 3\ndays.  After that time, the overall guidance envelope has shifted\nslightly northward, requiring a subtle northward adjustment of the\nNHC official forecast by day 5.  This new forecast generally lies\nclosest to the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 17.5N 114.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 17.8N 115.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 18.0N 117.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 18.1N 118.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  31/0600Z 17.8N 120.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 16.7N 124.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  02/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  03/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Miriam Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018\n\nAlthough Miriam remains a sheared tropical cyclone, recent\ngeostationary satellite data and a 1002 UTC AMSR2 microwave\noverpass indicates that there has been some improvement in the\nstructure of the cyclone.  The microwave data showed an increase in\nbanding over the eastern portion of the circulation and less\nseparation between the convection and the low-level center.\nTherefore, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt, which is a\nblend of the most recent subjective Dvorak classifications and\nobjective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS.  The northwesterly shear over\nthe cyclone appears to have abated slightly, and a further slight\nreduction in shear could allow Miriam to reach hurricane strength\nwithin the next 24-36 h.  Most of the intensity guidance agrees,\nand the NHC intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the\nfirst 36 h.  After that time, increasing shear and cooler waters are\nexpected to cause Miriam to weaken fairly quickly and the system is\nforecast to become a remnant low by day 4.\n\nMiriam continues to move westward or 275/10 kt. The cyclone is\napproaching the western edge of the subtropical ridge, and the\nglobal models indicate that Miriam will slow down and turn\nwest-northwestward very soon.  By Thursday, a large mid- to\nupper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is\nexpected to cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then northward\nthrough 72 hours.  At days 3 and beyond, there continues to be\nsignificant model differences with the ECMWF still taking Miriam\nfaster and much farther northward, while the GFS moves a much\nweaker Miriam westward.  Since Miriam is forecast to weaken and\nbecome a shallow system around that time, the NHC forecast leans\ntoward the more westward scenario, but is not as far south and west\nas the GFS. The new NHC track is south of the various consensus aids\nat day 5, and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean\nand UKMET model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 14.2N 139.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 14.4N 140.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 15.1N 141.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  31/0000Z 16.3N 142.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  31/1200Z 17.9N 142.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 21.0N 142.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  02/1200Z 23.8N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/1200Z 26.7N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norman Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 AM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern has continued to improved in organization, and\nSSMIS data at 1400 UTC indicate that an inner core is beginning to\nform. The area of convection is large with a well defined\ncyclonically curved band wrapping around the system, while the\nupper-level outflow is expanding westward.  Based on objective and\nsubjective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt.\nThe environment of low shear and warm waters is ideal for Norman to\nintensify, and in fact, the Rapid Intensification (RI) indices are\nquite high. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Norman to\nbecome a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane in a day or so.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the\nwest-northwest or 285 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is ready to\nstart moving more westward or even on a west-southwestward track as\nthe nose of the ridge to the north begins to expand westward and\namplify. Most of the models captured the building of the ridge, and\nunanimously forecast the cyclone to move west-southwestward for the\nnext 2 to 4 days. The confidence is the forecast during the first 3\nto 4 days is high since track models are really clustered. The new\nNHC forecast is not too different from the previous one, and it lies\nbetween the corrected consensus HCCA and the multimodel aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 17.9N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 18.1N 118.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  31/0000Z 17.9N 119.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  31/1200Z 17.5N 121.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  02/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  03/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP152018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Miriam Discussion Number  15...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152018\n200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018\n\nCorrected WMO header in fourth paragraph\n\nThe satellite presentation of Miriam has significantly improved over\nthe past 12 hours or so.  Several microwave images received since\nthe release of the previous advisory revealed a significant\nincrease in organization with convection wrapping nearly\ncompletely around the center.  Recent visible satellite images have\nshown hints of an eye, but the surrounding convective tops have\nwarmed somewhat.  Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity\nestimates all support hurricane strength, and the initial intensity\nis increased to 65 kt for this advisory.\n\nSatellite fixes show that Miriam has slowed down and is moving\nwestward or 270/8 kt. The hurricane is near the western edge of\nthe subtropical ridge and is forecast to turn west-northwestward\nvery soon.  A large mid- to upper-level trough located northeast of\nthe Hawaiian Islands should cause Miriam to turn northwestward, then\nnorthward over the next couple of days, and the dynamical models\nare in good agreement through 72 hours.  After that time, model\ndifferences remain as the ECMWF continues to take a deeper cyclone\nmuch faster northward than the remainder of the guidance.  The NHC\nforecast continues to lean toward the solution of a weaker cyclone\nturning northwestward or west-northwestward near the end of the\nforecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is once again south of\nthe model consensus at days 4 and 5 and is in best agreement with\nthe GFS ensemble mean.\n\nMiriam has about another 12-24 h over warm water and within a light\nto moderate wind shear environment in which to strengthen.  After\nthat time, a significant increase in southwesterly shear is\nanticipated and Miriam is forecast to weaken fairly quickly\nbetween 36 and 72 hours.  Miriam should reach SSTs below 26C by\n96 h and should degenerate into a remnant low by that time.\n\nMiriam will move into the Central Pacific Basin shortly and this is\nlast NHC advisory on this system.  Future information on Miriam can\nbe found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane\nCenter beginning at 5 PM HST (0300 UTC), under AWIPS header\nHFOTCPCP3, WMO header WTPA33 PHFO, and on the web at\nhttp://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 14.0N 139.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 14.4N 140.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 15.3N 141.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  31/0600Z 16.7N 141.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  31/1800Z 18.4N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 21.5N 142.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 24.7N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/1800Z 27.0N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018\n\nNorman's cloud pattern has continued to organize with numerous\nconvective bands and excellent upper-level outflow.  More\nimportantly, satellite images show an eye feature which has been\ndepicted intermittently.  Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB have\nreached T4.0, and on this basis, Norman is being upgraded to\nhurricane status in this advisory.  The environment of low shear and\nwarm ocean continues to be ideal for intensification, and guidance\ncontinues to be pretty aggressive in bringing the winds up fast.\nThe NHC forecast indicates rapid intensification, and predicts\nNorman to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours.\n\nNorman appears to be moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt.\nThe high pressure ridge which is controlling the motion of the\nhurricane is expanding westward, and the flow pattern around the\nridge should steer Norman on a west or even west-southwest track\nfor the next 3 to 4 days.  Track guidance continues to be in\nremarkably good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at\nleast for the next 3 to 4 days. The NHC forecast is very similar to\nthe previous one, and continue to lie very close to the corrected\nconsensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. The confidence in the track\nforecast is quite high at this time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 17.6N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 17.8N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 17.9N 118.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  31/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  31/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 PM PDT Wed Aug 29 2018\n\nNorman is steadily strengthening.  Recent microwave images indicate\nthat the hurricane now has a well-defined inner core with a banded\neye feature evident in that data.  The eye is not yet apparent in\ngeostationary images, but the convective pattern is improving in\norganization and the cloud tops continue to become colder.  A blend\nof the satellite intensity estimates at 0000 UTC supported an\ninitial intensity of 70 kt, and since the system continues to\nbecome better organized, the initial wind speed for this advisory is\nincreased to 75 kt.  Now that Norman has an inner core, rapid\nintensification is expected during the next 24 hours or so while the\nhurricane remains in near ideal environmental conditions.  The SHIPS\nrapid intensification indices are very high, and the NHC intensity\nforecast remains near the upper end of the model guidance in the\nshort term.  Beyond a couple of days, an increase in shear\nand slightly cooler waters should promote a gradual weakening trend.\n\nSatellite images suggest that the forward speed of Norman has\nslowed to 280/7 kt.  All of the models show a mid-level ridge\namplifying to the north of the tropical cyclone during the next few\ndays, and this should cause the hurricane to move westward or\nwest-southwestward during that time.  Thereafter, a turn back to the\nwest and then west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is\npredicted as Norman moves closer to the western periphery of the\nridge.  The model guidance remains in fairly good agreement, and\nthe NHC track forecast lies near the various consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 18.0N 117.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  31/0000Z 18.0N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  31/1200Z 17.5N 120.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 16.8N 122.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  02/0000Z 16.0N 126.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  03/0000Z 16.9N 130.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nNorman is in the midst of a remarkable period of rapid\nintensification.  An eye developed in infrared satellite imagery\naround 0500 UTC and is completely surrounded by very cold cloud\ntops quadrants.  A burst of lightning also began a couple of hours\nago in the southeastern quadrant, where cloud tops are as cold as\n-84C.  Subjective Dvorak estimates rose quickly to T5.5/102 kt from\nSAB and T5.0/90 kt from TAFB at 0600 UTC, and since the satellite\npresentation has continued to improve, the initial intensity is set\nnear the top of that range at 100 kt, making Norman a major\nhurricane.  Norman's intensity has increased by an estimated 45-50\nkt over the past 24 hours.\n\nNorman remains in a low-shear environment with good upper-level\noutflow in all quadrants, and the hurricane is moving over very\nwarm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius.  Barring any unforeseen\nstructural changes like an eyewall replacement, Norman is likely to\ncontinue strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, and nearly all\nof the intensity models depict the current rapid intensification\nphase persisting for the next 12 hours.  The updated NHC intensity\nforecast has been increased during the first 48 hours to account\nfor recent trends, and it closely matches an average of the HCCA\nmodel, Florida State Superensemble, and ICON intensity consensus.\nA very gradual weakening is expected after 48 hours as Norman\nencounters some shear and cooler waters.\n\nA strong subtropical ridge extending west of northern Mexico is\nsteering Norman westward, or 275/6 kt.  The depth and strength of\nthe ridge is expected to force Norman west-southwestward during the\nnext 24-48 hours, followed by a turn back toward the west and then\nwest-northwest on days 3-5.  The track models are in fairly good\nagreement throughout the 5-day forecast period, although there are\nsome differences in exactly how much of an S-curve Norman will\nmake.  The ECMWF shows the most pronounced bend in the forecast\ntrack, starting along the southern periphery of the guidance\nenvelope and then moving to the northern periphery by days 4 and 5.\nAlthough the new NHC track forecast does not follow the ECMWF\nexactly, it does show slightly more bend than the previous forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 17.8N 117.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-08-30 12:30:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Special Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n530 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nSatellite data show that Norman continues to rapidly strengthen.\nObjective Dvorak data T-numbers from UW/CIMSS have increased to T6.5\nor higher and the latest TAFB subjective data T-number is T6.5.\nThese estimates support an initial intensity of 125 kt, making\nNorman a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind\nScale.  As a result of the increased initial intensity, the NHC\nintensity forecast has been adjusted upward through 36 h, but it is\notherwise unchanged.  There has been no change to the NHC track\nforecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1230Z 17.8N 117.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 17.9N 118.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  31/0600Z 17.6N 120.1W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  31/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 16.3N 123.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  02/0600Z 16.2N 127.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  03/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nThe area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has\ncontinued to become better organized, and is producing a large\narea of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a\nwell-defined center.  Environmental conditions are favorable for\nadditional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical\nstorm could form an any time today or Friday.  Given the high\nchances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a\nportion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been\ninitiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six.  Most of the intensity\nguidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast.\n\nThe system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow\npattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west-\nnorthwest during the next few days.  By the end of the forecast\nperiod, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system\nreaches a weakness in the subtropical high.  This is consistent with\nthe output of the global models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 12.9N  18.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  31/0000Z 13.2N  20.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\n 24H  31/1200Z 13.5N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 14.0N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 15.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 16.5N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 18.5N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 20.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 AM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nNorman has rapidly strengthened during the past 12 to 24 hours,\nwith the development of a well-defined 20-nmi-wide eye and a thick\nring of cold cloud tops of -70 to -85C.  Dvorak constraints have\nlimited the amount of increase in the subjective and objective final\nT-numbers, but the most recent raw data T-numbers are between T6.5\nand T7.2, which yields an initial intensity estimate of 130 kt.\nNorman's intensity has increased an estimated 70 kt from 1200 UTC\nyesterday morning to 1200 UTC this morning- the fastest in the\nbasin since Patricia in 2015.  Norman has become the 5th category 4\nhurricane in the eastern Pacific in 2018 and is also the strongest\nhurricane in the basin so far this season.\n\nThe hurricane remains in a low-shear environment and will continue\nto move over very warm waters of 29-30 degrees Celsius for another\n24 hours.  These conditions are expected to allow for additional\nstrengthening and Norman is forecast to become a category 5\nhurricane later today.  Eyewall replacement cycles are likely after\nthat time, which are difficult to predict, and should cause some\nfluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days. Later in\nthe period, gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and a\nslight increase in shear are forecast to cause gradual weakening.\nHowever, Norman is predicted to remain a hurricane throughout the\n5-day forecast period.\n\nNorman is moving westward or 270/7 kt. A strong subtropical ridge\nthat extends from the Baja California peninsula west-southwestward\ninto the eastern Pacific is expected to turn Norman\nwest-southwestward later today or tonight, with this motion\ncontinuing over the next couple of days.  The global models shift\nthe orientation of the ridge in a few days which should cause\nNorman to turn west-northwestward by early next week.  The\ndynamical model guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC track\nforecast is close to the multi-model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 17.8N 118.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  31/0000Z 17.7N 119.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  31/1200Z 17.2N 120.7W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 16.1N 124.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 16.7N 128.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 18.5N 133.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 20.2N 138.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nThe area of low pressure has continued to become better defined,\nand is still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather\nwith gusty winds.  However, the system lacks a well-defined center,\nand Dvorak classifications do not support to classify the\ndisturbance as a tropical depression at this time.  An environment\nof high moisture and low shear favors genesis, and the disturbance\nis expected to become a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24\nhours.  These favorable conditions are expected to prevail, so the\nNHC forecast gradually brings the winds up at a similar rate as the\nintensity consensus.\n\nSince the system lacks a well defined center, the initial motion is\nuncertain.  The best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at\n8 kt.  The disturbance is moving rather slow because it is still\nembedded within the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow.  Once it\nmoves away from that region near Africa, it will be steered by the\ntrade winds around the subtropical ridge, and the system will\nincrease its westward or west-northwestward forward speed.  By the\nend of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin\nas the cyclone reaches a weakness in the subtropical high.  The\nNHC forecast is similar to the earlier one, and is in between the\ncorrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 12.9N  19.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  31/0600Z 13.1N  20.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\n 24H  31/1800Z 14.0N  23.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 14.7N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 15.5N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 17.0N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  03/1800Z 18.7N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  04/1800Z 21.0N  43.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nNorman is a very impressive hurricane in visible and infrared\nsatellite imagery. The hurricane's CDO is very symmetric and has a\nwell-defined 20-nmi-wide eye.  The surrounding ring of cold cloud\ntops have warmed slightly, but the various satellite intensity\nestimates are still catching up to the improved satellite\npresentation and range from 127 kt to 135 kt.  Based on a blend of\nthese data, the initial intensity is set at 130 kt, and it appears\nthat Norman's rapid strengthening phase is easing. There is still a\npotential for some additional increase in intensity within the next\n12 hour or so, however, eyewall replacement probabilities from\nUW/CIMSS indicate a very high likelihood of an eyewall replacement\nbeginning within the next 12-24 hours which will probably lead to\nsome fluctuations in intensity. Slightly lower sea surface\ntemperatures and a subtle increase in northeasterly shear are\nexpected to cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the weekend.\nThe NHC intensity forecast shows gradual weakening but it does not\nweaken Norman as quickly as the statistical guidance, and it is in\nbest agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.\n\nRecent satellite fixes indicated that Norman is moving slightly\nsouth of due west.  A strong mid- to upper-level ridge that extends\nwest-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer\nNorman west-southwestward during the next 36 hours.  After that\ntime, the ridge changes orientation which is expected to cause\nNorman to turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next\nweek.  The track guidance is once again tightly clustered but the\noverall model enveloped has shifted slightly southward.  As a\nresult, the NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction to be\ncloser to the various consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 17.5N 118.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  31/0600Z 17.2N 120.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  31/1800Z 16.8N 121.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 16.3N 123.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 16.2N 125.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 17.1N 129.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  03/1800Z 18.9N 135.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  04/1800Z 20.2N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that the disturbance is gradually\nbecoming better organized.  However, the convection is not yet well\nenough organized to call the system a tropical cyclone, and recent\nscatterometer data show that the system still lacks a well-defined\ncenter of circulation.  The scatterometer did indicate winds of\n25-30 kt, so the initial intensity is nudged upward to 30 kt.\n\nThe system should be in an environment of light to moderate\neasterly vertical shear for the next three to four days.  Sea\nsurface temperatures decrease along the forecast track during this\ntime, though, reaching 26C by 72-96 h.  The intensity guidance\nsuggests that the system should at least slowly develop despite the\nfalling SSTs, and based on this the new intensity forecast calls for\nit to become a tropical depression in about 12 h, a tropical storm\nin 12-24 h, and a hurricane near the 96-h point.  While the system\nis expected to reach warmer SSTs near the end of the forecast\nperiod, it is also expected to encounter westerly shear at that\ntime, which should limit additional intensification.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 280/11.  The trade winds\non the south side of the subtropical ridge should steer the system\nwest-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the\nnext 3-4 days, passing near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands\nFriday or Friday night.  Near the end of the forecast period, a\nturn toward the northwest is forecast as the system approaches a\nweakness in the ridge.  The new track forecast is again little\nchanged from the previous forecast and lies near the various\nconsensus models.  It should be noted that some adjustments to the\nearly parts of the forecast track may occur until the center\nbecomes better defined.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 13.2N  20.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  31/1200Z 13.7N  22.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\n 24H  01/0000Z 14.5N  24.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 15.3N  27.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 16.0N  30.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 17.5N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 19.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 21.5N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 PM PDT Thu Aug 30 2018\n\nAfter the explosive intensification observed last night and\nearlier today, Norman's intensity has leveled off.  The eye of the\nmajor hurricane remains quite circular and distinct with a\nsolid eyewall surrounding the center.  The eastern portion of the\neyewall, however, has eroded a little during the past few hours.\nBased on the steady state appearance, the initial intensity is held\nat 130 kt, which lies at the upper end of the satellite intensity\nestimates.\n\nThe environmental conditions surrounding Norman are expected to\nonly gradually become less favorable with SSTs and mid-level\nhumidity values slowly decreasing along Norman's track during the\nnext few days.  There is a possibility of eyewall replacement cycles\nin major hurricanes like Norman, which typically cause fluctuations\nin strength and are challenging to forecast.  The intensity models\nall show a slow weakening trend, and the NHC forecast follows that\ntheme.  This forecast is slightly below the previous one, trending\ntoward the latest consensus models.\n\nNorman is moving west-southwestward at 8 kt steered by a\nnortheast-southwest oriented deep-layer ridge to the north of the\ntropical cyclone.  This general motion is expected to continue for\nthe next day or so.  After that time, a change in the orientation\nof the ridge should cause Norman to turn to the west and then\nwest-northwest with an increase in forward speed.  The track models\nremain in relatively good agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 17.3N 119.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 17.0N 120.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 16.6N 122.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 16.2N 124.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 16.3N 126.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 17.8N 131.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 19.5N 137.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Six","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nEven though the circulation is gradually becoming less elongated,\nthere is still relatively little deep convection near the estimated\ncenter of circulation.  Instead, most of the convection remains\nconfined to the monsoon trough southwest of the center, where\nlow-level convergence is strongest.  Therefore, the system is not\nquite yet being designated as a tropical cyclone.\n\nGlobal model fields suggest that the low should detach from the\nmonsoon trough within the next 12 hours, which would likely allow\ndeep convection to form closer to the center.  Assuming that\nhappens, the system is also forecast to strengthen and become a\ntropical storm by this afternoon while it approaches the southern\nCabo Verde Islands.  Although vertical shear is expected to be\nrelatively light for much of the forecast period, sea surface\ntemperatures ahead of the system are marginal, and the low will\nlikely move over a minimum of oceanic heat content in 48-72 hours.\nAdding on top of that a drier mid-level environment, only gradual\nstrengthening is anticipated through day 5.  A majority of the\nintensity models agree on this scenario, with the exception of the\nHWRF model, which brings the system close to major hurricane\nstrength at the end of the forecast period.  Since that solution is\ndiscounted at the moment, the NHC intensity forecast is below the\nHCCA guidance and closest to the intensity consensus.\n\nThe low appears to have turned west-northwestward with an initial\nmotion of 285/10 kt.  A mid-level high centered west of the Canary\nIslands should continue to steer the disturbance west-northwestward\nat a faster clip for the next 4 days or so.  By the end of the\nforecast period, a weakness in the ridge over the eastern Atlantic\ncould cause the system to turn northwestward.  The new NHC track\nforecast is a little slower than the previous one during the first\n72 hours and then a little to the west on days 4 and 5 to better\nmatch the latest guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0900Z 13.6N  21.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  31/1800Z 14.2N  23.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  01/0600Z 14.8N  25.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 15.5N  28.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 16.2N  30.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 17.4N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 19.0N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 21.5N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nNorman appears to have weakened over the past several hours. Cloud\ntops around the eye have warmed, and the eye itself has become less\ndistinct. Several recent microwave overpasses show little indication\nthat an eyewall replacement cycle is underway, but it is possible\nthat our ability to observe such a cycle is limited by the\nresolution of the available instruments. Satellite intensity\nestimates from all agencies have decreased and supported at most an\nintensity of 125 kt at 0600 UTC. Given the continued warming of\ncloud tops near the inner core since that time, the initial\nintensity has been lowered to 120 kt.\n\nDue to the lower initial intensity, the intensity forecast has also\nbeen lowered slightly, particularly for the first 24 h. Gradual\nweakening is expected through the forecast period, though larger\nshort-term fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement\ncycles are possible, if not likely, while Norman remains a\nhurricane. By the end of the forecast period, a faster weakening\nrate is anticipated as Norman is forecast to move over cooler SSTs\nand reach a drier environment. The NHC forecast is near the center\nof the intensity guidance envelope and near the intensity consensus.\n\nThe hurricane has continued to move west-southwestward at 8 kt.\nAlmost no change has been made to the track forecast, which remains\nclose to the various consensus aids. The hurricane should turn\nwestward, and then west-northwestward, as it is steered primarily by\na deep-layer ridge to the north for the next 5 days. With the\nexception of the UKMET global model, which is an outlier to the\nsouth, the global and regional dynamical models are in good\nagreement on the future path of Norman, and confidence in the track\nforecast is fairly high.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0900Z 16.9N 120.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 16.6N 121.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 16.3N 123.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 16.3N 125.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 16.7N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 18.4N 133.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 20.5N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Six","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n1100 AM AST Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nThe circulation is better defined this morning, but the associated\nconvection is rather weak.  In fact, Dvorak numbers have not\nchanged overall, and do not support classifying the system as a\ntropical cyclone yet.  It seems like both NHC and the global models\npredicted the development of a cyclone too soon.  Nevertheless, the\nenvironmental conditions are favorable for both genesis and\nstrengthening, and a tropical depression or a storm is expected to\nform later today or Saturday.  The shear does not appear to be a\nproblem at this time, but the cyclone should be moving over marginal\nSSTs, limiting the amount of intensification.  The HWRF model\nchanged its tune to a more reasonable one, and it now shows more\nmodest strengthening.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous\none, and continues to be very close to the intensity consensus.\n\nThe disturbance is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees\nat about 11 kt.  The subtropical high should continue to steer the\nsystem toward the west-northwest with some increase in forward\nspeed for the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time, a weakness in the\nridge will induce a more northwestward track over the open Atlantic\nOcean.  This is supported by the track guidance which continues to\nbe in very good agreement for the next 3 days.  Thereafter, the\nguidance envelope widens and becomes bounded by the westernmost\nECMWF and the easternmost GFS models decreasing the confidence\nin the track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1500Z 13.7N  22.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  01/0000Z 14.1N  24.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  01/1200Z 14.8N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 15.5N  29.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 16.2N  32.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 17.5N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 19.5N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 22.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n800 AM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nNorman appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.\nAlthough a lack of earlier microwave imagery hasn't helped to\nsupport this speculation, enhanced infrared BD-Curve images,\nhowever, revealed a collapse of the inner core in the northeast\nquadrant several hours ago.  Currently, that portion of the\neyewall has begun to fill in with a solid ring completely\nsurrounding the eye, albeit, rather thin.  Consequently,\nsubjective and objective T-numbers, as well as an earlier SATCON\nanalysis, support a slight decrease of the initial intensity to 115\nkt.\n\nFurther slow weakening is forecast through the entire period,\nalthough there could be fluctuations in the short-term due to the\naforementioned inner core structure evolution.  There also appears\nto be some modest northeasterly shear impinging the northeast\nportion of the cyclone, which could hamper strengthening. The Decay\nSHIPS intensity model indicates that the shear will persist during\nthe next couple of days.  Through the remaining part of the\nforecast, decreasing SSTs and the intrusion of a more stable/drier\nenvironment from the north should lead to further weakening.  The\nNHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows the\nNOAA-HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 245/7 kt.\nThe cyclone's motion is currently influenced by a\nnortheast-southwest oriented mid-to-upper tropospheric ridge\nresiding between Hurricane Miriam to the west, and Norman to the\neast. This current motion is expected to continue for\nthe next 36 hours, or so.  Afterward, the ridge between the two\ntropical cyclones is expected to weaken as Miriam continues on a\ngenerally northward track.  This change in the synoptic steering\npattern should cause Norman to turn to the west and then\nwest-northwest with an increase in forward speed.  The official\nforecast has changed little over the past 6 hours and is based on a\nblend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1500Z 16.7N 120.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 16.4N 122.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 16.2N 123.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 16.3N 125.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 16.8N 128.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 18.3N 134.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 20.5N 144.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Six Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062018\n500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nHigh resolution satellite images reveal that the disturbance has\ndeveloped a well-defined circulation with a cyclonically curved\nconvective band near the center, and plenty of showers in the\nsouthern semicircle. The surface pressure in the Cabo Verde Island\nof Santiago dropped to 1005 mb at 1800 UTC as the cyclone passed to\nits south. In addition, Dvorak numbers are gradually increasing, and\nnow support classifying the system as a tropical depression.\n\nThe depression is becoming better organized, and it will most likely\nreach tropical storm status in the next several hours.  The\nenvironmental conditions are favorable for some strengthening during\nthe next 2 to 3 days while the shear is low.  Later in the forecast\nperiod, the shear is expected to increase, and the SSTs will become\nmarginal halting the strengthing process. The models, primarily the\nHWRF, are a little less aggressive with the intensity, so the NHC\nforecast is adjusted slightly downward.\n\nNow that the center has formed, we have a better estimate of the\ninitial motion, which is toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt.\nThe depression is gradually becoming steered by the flow around the\nsubtropical ridge, and consequently it has increased its forward\nspeed. This prevailing flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a\ngeneral west to west-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. After\nthat time, a weakness in the ridge will induce a more northwestward\nto north-northwestward track over the open Atlantic Ocean.  The\ntrack guidance is very consistent with this solution mainly for the\nnext 3 days.  Thereafter, the confidence in the track forecast\ndecreases as the guidance envelope widens and becomes bounded by the\nwesternmost ECMWF and the easternmost HWFI.  The NHC forecast\ncontinues to be in the middle of the envelope and is very close\nto the corrected consensus HCCA, which has had great skill so far\nthis year.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 13.8N  24.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 14.3N  26.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 14.9N  29.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 15.8N  31.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 16.5N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 18.0N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 20.0N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 23.0N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norman","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP162018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norman Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162018\n200 PM PDT Fri Aug 31 2018\n\nSatellite derived mid and upper tropospheric winds and the UW-CIMSS\nshear analysis indicate that the persistent northeasterly vertical\nshear has increased to 20-25 kt, and has continued to impede outer\ndeep convective banding development in the northern portion of\nNorman's inner core.  The cloud pattern has also become somewhat\nasymmetric (northeast to southwest).  A series of recent microwave\nimages, however, show that the eyewall is now closed, although the\neye temperature has warmed a bit during the past 6 hours.  The\nDvorak satellite intensity classifications from TAFB and SAB also\nsupport these observations, and the initial intensity is reduced to\n110 kt.\n\nAlthough there may still be some fluctuations in intensity, gradual\nweakening is forecast through day 5, primarily due to the shear\npredicted by the GFS and ECMWF Decay-SHIPS intensity models.\nIntrusion of stable air mass, beyond day 3, northeast of the\nHawaiian Islands will also promote this weakening trend.  The\nofficial intensity forecast has changed little from the previous\nadvisory, and is still based on the HFIP Corrected Consensus\nApproach and IVCN intensity models.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-southwest, or 255/7 kt.\nAn anchored mid- to upper-level ridge that stretches\nwest-southwestward from the Baja California peninsula should steer\nNorman west-southwestward during the next 12 hours or so.\nAfterward, the southwestern-most segment of the ridge axis between\nMiriam and Norman weakens as Miriam continues on a northward track.\nThis change in the synoptic steering pattern should influence Norman\nto turn back toward the west or west-northwest by early next week.\nOnly slight along-track speed adjustments were made to this\nadvisory, which follows a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus\nguidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 16.5N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 16.2N 122.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 16.2N 124.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 16.6N 127.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 17.3N 129.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 18.9N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 20.0N 141.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 20.9N 144.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n800 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018\n\nEmilia has been producing an area of deep convection southwest of\nthe low-level center, with cloud top temperatures of -60C to -70C\nfor the past few hours. As a result, Emilia is maintaining its\ntropical cyclone status for now. The initial intensity remains 30 kt\nbased on the earlier ASCAT data. The cyclone should gradually\nweaken in an increasingly hostile thermodynamic environment with the\nshear increasing. Emilia should become a remnant low in 12 to 24\nhours and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3 to 4\ndays.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/10. Emilia and its remnants\nshould continue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days\nbefore turning more westward in the low-level flow prior to\ndissipation.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 18.4N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 18.8N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  02/0000Z 19.5N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/1200Z 20.2N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/0000Z 20.9N 129.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/0000Z 21.2N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018\n\nThe depression is gradually becoming better organized.  Deep\nconvective bands have been gaining curvature, but remain limited to\nthe southeast of the estimated center.  Since the Dvorak\nclassifications are unchanged at 2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, the\ninitial wind speed is held at that value.  This intensity estimate\nis also consistent with the latest ADT values from CIMSS at the\nUniversity of Wisconsin.  Even though the system is currently not\nvery strong, the circulation is quite large with the outer bands\nextending about 300 n mi from the center.\n\nThe system is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt.  This general\nmotion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level\nridge to the northeast of the system remains the primary steering\nfeature.  The track models are in very good agreement, and only\nsmall changes were made to the previous NHC prediction.  The\ncyclone is expected to remain out to sea through the forecast\nperiod.\n\nEnvironmental conditions are quite ideal for the depression to\nstrengthen during the next few days with SSTs of 28-29C, vertical\nwind shear less than 10 kt, and a fairly moist low- to mid-level\nair mass.  The models respond to these favorable conditions by\nunanimously showing the depression becoming a hurricane within the\nnext few days.  However, the models disagree on how strong the\nsystem might get before it reaches cooler waters in a few days.  The\nSHIPS and LGEM models show the system reaching major hurricane\nstrength while the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models are notably weaker.\nRegardless of how strong the system becomes, the strengthening trend\nshould end shortly after 3 days when the cyclone is expected to move\nover progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable\nenvironment.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the\nprevious one and is close to the HCCA and ICON consensus models.\nThis forecast is slightly below the models in the short term as the\nlarge size of the system could make the initial strengthening\nprocess more gradual.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 11.3N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 11.7N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 12.4N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 13.1N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 13.7N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 15.4N 117.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 17.8N 122.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n200 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n\nEmilia continues to produce a disorganized cluster of convection to\nthe southwest of the center, and so it remains a tropical cyclone\nfor another advisory cycle.  Satellite intensity estimates and\nsurface wind data from the Windsat satellite show that the initial\nintensity is near 25 kt.  The convection is expected to dissipate\nlater today, with Emilia becoming a remnant low when that occurs.\nFinal dissipation of the remnants are expected after 72 h.\n\nThe initial motion remains 295/10.  Emilia and its remnants should\ncontinue generally west-northwestward for a couple of days before\nturning more westward in the low-level flow prior to dissipation.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 18.9N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  02/0600Z 20.1N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/1800Z 20.8N 128.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/0600Z 21.3N 130.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/0600Z 21.5N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n300 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that the convection associated with\nTropical Depression Seven-E has become better organized, with very\ncold cloud tops near and west of the center along with a large area\nof outer banding.  A recent GMI overpass suggests that the system\nhas not yet developed a tight inner core.  However, the various\nsatellite intensity estimates are now 35-45 kt.  Thus, the cyclone\nis upgraded to Tropical Storm Fabio with a possibly conservative\ninitial intensity of 35 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/11.  The track guidance is in good\nagreement that Fabio should move west-northwestward on the\nsouthwest side of the subtropical ridge for the next several days,\nwith a turn toward the northwest near the end of the forecast\nperiod.  There has been little change in the guidance since the\nprevious advisory, so the new forecast track is an update of the\nprevious forecast that lies near or just north of the model\nconsensus.\n\nFabio should be over warm water and in an environment of light\nvertical wind shear for the next 72 h or so, and steady to rapid\nstrengthening is expected during that time.  There remains some\nspread in the guidance, with the HWRF model continuing to show less\nintensification than the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM\nmodels.  The new intensity forecast will again trend above that of\nthe previous forecast, with steady strengthening during the first 24\nh followed by rapid strengthening from 24-48 h.  It should be noted\nthat the forecast intensities through 72 h are lower than the SHIPS\nand LGEM models, and they are in best overall agreement with the\nHCCA consensus model.  After 72 h, Fabio should move over steadily\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures and weaken quickly.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 11.6N 106.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 12.0N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 12.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 13.3N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nTropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  16...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n\nCorrected to add DISSIPATED line at 72H.\n\nSomewhat surprisingly, a small area of convection southwest of the\ncenter of Emilia has persisted overnight, despite SSTs of around 25C\nbelow the cyclone.  Although the depression is located within a\nfairly hostile thermodynamic environment, an upper-level trough to\nthe northwest may be providing enough dynamical support to maintain\nthe convection, at least for now.  No recent scatterometer data is\navailable, so the initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based on\nthe latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone will still\nlikely lose all of its convection and become a remnant low later\ntoday or early tomorrow since the upper-level dynamical support\nshould decrease over the next 12 hours or so and it will be moving\ninto a progressively drier environment. The various dynamical models\nunanimously indicate that Emilia will then steadily spin down before\ndissipating sometime between 48 and 72 h.\n\nThe initial motion is still 295/10 kt, and as long as Emilia\nmaintains convection, it will likely remain on this heading.  Once\nthe system becomes a remnant low, the low-level tradewind flow will\ncause it to turn westward until dissipation occurs in a few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 19.3N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 20.6N 126.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  03/0000Z 21.2N 129.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n900 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n \nThe satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to improve this\nmorning.  A large curved convective band wraps around the the\nwestern and southern portions of the circulation and a CDO feature\nappears to be developing. The initial intensity has been increased\nto 45 kt, which is based on consensus Dvorak T3.0s from TAFB and\nSAB.  Environmental conditions consisting of warm water, low\nvertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere should\nallow Fabio to strengthen quite quickly during the next couple of\ndays.  In fact, the SHIPS, LGEM, FSSE, and HFIP Corrected Consensus\nmodels all predict rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 48\nhours.  The official forecast, while not quite as aggressive as the\nSHIPS/LGEM models, does predict rapid strengthening over the next\ncouple of days and brings Fabio to a 110-kt major hurricane by 48\nhours.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is significantly higher\nthan the previous advisory during the first 36 to 48 h, but shows a\npeak intensity only slightly above the previous forecast.  There is\nan usually large spread of peak wind speeds from the intensity aids\nbetween 48-72 hours, and the NHC forecast is slightly above the\nconsensus, close to HCCA, but not as high as the FSSE and SHIPS\nmodels.  After 72, Fabio is forecast to move over cooler waters and\ninto a more stable environment which is likely to result in rapid\nweakening.\n \nThe initial motion remains 285/11.  Fabio is located to the south\nof a well-established mid-level ridge that extends westward from\nnorthern Mexico.  This ridge should keep the cyclone on a general\nwest-northwestward heading through much of the forecast period.\nThe track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track is near\nthe various consensus models.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  01/1500Z 12.0N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 12.4N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 12.9N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 13.6N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 14.4N 115.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 16.3N 120.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 18.7N 125.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 22.0N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n \n$$\nForecaster Brown\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n\nDeep convection associated with Emilia has decreased in coverage\nsince this morning, and it appears that Emilia is finally well on\nits way to becoming a remnant low.  The initial wind speed is set to\n25 kt, which is supported by subjective Dvorak intensity estimates\nfrom both TAFB and SAB.\n\nEmilia is currently over SSTs of 24-25 degrees Celsius and is moving\ninto a drier and more stable airmass.  As a result, the cyclone\nshould degenerate into a remnant low later today or tonight, then\ncontinue to spin down and dissipate within 72 hours.\n\nThe cyclone is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt.  A\nwest-northwestward motion should continue for a little longer but\nthe system will likely turn toward the west as it comes under the\ninfluence of the easterly low-level tradewind flow. The latest\ntrack envelope has shifted slightly northward and the updated NHC\ntrack has been adjusted accordingly.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 19.7N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 20.3N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  02/1800Z 21.2N 127.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  03/0600Z 22.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n300 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n\nFabio's presentation continues to improve on visible, IR, and\nmicrowave imagery.  Although a pronounced dry slot is still present\njust north and east of the low-level center, convection appears to\nbe increasing, suggesting that the cyclone is getting closer to\nclosing off its inner core.  The initial intensity has been\nincreased to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak fix from TAFB and an\nearlier SATCON estimate of 53 kt.\n\nThe statistical intensity guidance continues to forecast a\nremarkable rate of intensification for Fabio over the next two days.\nThe DSHP and LGEM models both bring Fabio to near or above category\n5 strength within 48 hours, while the SHIPS RII and DTOPS models\nsuggest there is a greater than 50 percent probability of an\nincrease of 40 kt over the next 24 hours.  On the other hand, the\ndynamical HWRF and HMON models show only limited strengthening.\nGiven that those two models both missed the previous two rapid\nintensification cases this season, and the fact that the warm SSTs\nand very low shear seem indicative of rapid intensification, the\nforecast favors the statistical models, and shows Fabio becoming a\nmajor hurricane on Tuesday.  By 72 h, Fabio will be moving over\ncooler waters and into a much more stable environment which should\ncause rapid weakening to begin.  Despite the very high rate of\nintensification shown by the NHC forecast, it is actually lower than\nthe HCCA and FSSE models, and lies between those and the simple\nintensity consensus IVCN.  By the end of the forecast period, the\nforecast is close to all of the intensity consensus aids.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/11.  A late-arriving WindSat\npass showed that the center of Fabio was a little north of the\nprevious estimate, so the best track and forecast have been\nadjusted slightly in that direction.  Otherwise, no change has been\nmade to the track forecast or reasoning.  A mid-level ridge to\nthe north should keep the cyclone moving west-northwestward at a\nsimilar forward speed through most of the forecast period.  The NHC\ntrack forecast remains near the various consensus aids, and falls in\nthe middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 12.4N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 12.9N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 13.5N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 14.3N 114.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 15.2N 116.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 17.2N 122.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 23.0N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Emilia","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Emilia Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n\nEmilia lost all of its deep convection shortly after 1800 UTC, and\nthe system is now only a swirl of low-level clouds.  Since the\ncyclone is over cool 24 degree C waters and in a stable airmass,\nsignificant deep convection is not expected to return.  Therefore,\nEmilia is now classified as a remnant low, and this is the last\nadvisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.\n\nThe remnant low is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt within the\nlow-level trade winds, and this general motion is expected to\ncontinue during the next day or so.  A turn to the west is forecast\nto occur before the low dissipates in 2 to 3 days.\n\nFor additional information on the remnant low of Emilia please see\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web\nat http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 20.3N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  02/1200Z 21.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  03/0000Z 21.9N 129.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  03/1200Z 22.5N 131.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/0000Z 23.0N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n900 PM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018\n\nDuring the past 18 h, Fabio's satellite appearance has gone from a\ncurved band, to a CDO, back to a curved band, and now back to a CDO\nappearance, probably due to significant dry-air intrusions into\nthe inner-core region. However, passive microwave data over the past\nfew hours, especially a 0044Z SSMI/S overpass, indicate that the\nlow-level center has developed closer to a region of very cold\novershooting cloud tops of -88C to -90C. A closed, 30-35-nmi\ndiameter low-level eye was evident in the SSMI/S imagery, but no\nmid-level eye exists due to dry air having eroded the deep\nconvection. Having said that, the low-level eye is now embedded well\nwithin the CDO feature. The 0000 UTC satellite intensity estimate\nwas a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.\nHowever, the advisory is set a little higher at 60 kt based on the\nimproved satellite appearance since the 0000Z satellite fixes.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/11. After a brief westward jog\ndue to the low-level center reforming closer to the deepest\nconvection, Fabio appears to have turned back toward the\nwest-northwest. The cyclone is expected to continue moving\nwest-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a strong\ndeep-layer ridge. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly\npacked around the previous advisory track, with only a 60-nmi\ncross-track spread. As a result, the new forecast track is just a\ntad south of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the more\nsoutherly initial position, and lies close to the HCCA and FSSE\nconsensus track models.\n\nNow that Fabio has developed a well-defined low-level eye, rapid\nintensification has become more likely given the favorable low shear\nand warm SST environment. However, the main questions are how\nsoon, how much, and how long will the rapid strengthening be due to\nthe presence of a pronounced mid-level dry air intrusion and the\nlack of a mid-level eye feature. Most of the best-performing model\nintensity guidance shows the greatest amount of strengthening\noccuring during the next 24 h, and the official forecast follows\nsuit. After that time, possible cold upwelling beneath the cyclone\nbecomes a factor since the cyclone will be moving over shallow warm\nsurface waters of around 26 deg C by 48 h. As a result, the peak\nintensity has been capped between 36-48 h. Rapid weakening is\nexpected afterwards due to SSTs cooling to 22 deg C by 96 h and\nsouthwesterly shear also increasing to 15-20 kt by 120 h. The\nofficial intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and FSSE\nconsensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 12.5N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 13.0N 111.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 13.6N 113.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 14.5N 115.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 15.5N 118.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 17.7N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 20.7N 128.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 24.0N 132.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n300 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018\n\nFabio appears to have taken a brief pause in its intensification.\nA well-defined convective band wraps from the southeast around to\nthe west of the low-level center, but 89-GHz microwave imagery and\nscatterometer data indicate that the cyclone has not yet developed\na tight inner core.  In fact, the 05Z ASCAT data still showed a\nradius of maximum winds around 40 n mi, and the wind field is\nquite asymmetric with not many tropical-storm-force wind vectors in\nthe southwestern quadrant.  With Dvorak intensity estimates of\nT4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, as well as SATCON\nestimates of 55-60 kt, Fabio's initial intensity remains 60 kt for\nthis advisory.\n\nDespite the broad wind field noted in scatterometer data, the last\nfew infrared satellite images suggest that some tightening of the\ncirculation may be starting.  Once a tight inner core develops,\nrapid intensification will likely occur with the cyclone located in\nan environment of low shear and over water with high oceanic heat\ncontent.  Fabio is expected to peak in intensity in 36-48 hours\nas a major hurricane, just before it reaches the 26C SST isotherm.\nAfter 48 hours, steady weakening is expected over cooler waters,\nwith the cyclone likely becoming post tropical by day 5.  The\nupdated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and Florida\nState Superensemble solutions, and it not much different from the\nprevious forecast.\n\nScatterometer fixes suggest that Fabio has slowed down, at least\ntemporarily, and turned west with an initial motion of 280/9 kt.  A\nweakness in the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico should\nallow the cyclone to turn back to the west-northwest soon, with\nacceleration expected through 72 hours as the ridge builds westward\nover the Pacific.  There is very little spread among the track\nguidance, and the official track forecast remains closest to HCCA\nand the TVCE multi-model consensus.  This new forecast is nearly on\ntop of the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 12.5N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 13.1N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 15.0N 116.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 18.6N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-07-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n900 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018\n\nFabio's cloud pattern has improved somewhat since the previous\nadvisory and early light visible satellite images show a\nwell-defined curved band that wraps around the center.  Recent\nmicrowave images have shown some mixed signals regarding the\nstructure of the inner core.  A 1028 UTC SSMI microwave overpass\nshowed a well-defined low-level structure but the system was tilted\nwith most of the deep convective banding located to the southeast of\nthe center.  A subsequent 1147 UTC SSMIS pass showed similar\nstructure, but a more recent 1321 UTC SSMIS overpass shows the\nformation of mid-level eye with a tighter inner-core. Subjective\nDvorak intensity estimates were 55 to 65 kt from SAB and TAFB, and\nobjective estimates from UW/CIMSS are 65 kt.  Based on the recent\nimprovement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to\n65 kt, making Fabio the third hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin\nduring the 2018 hurricane season.\n\nAlthough Fabio has strengthened and become a hurricane, it has not\nstrengthened as rapidly as expected.  This was likely due to the\nlack of inner core organization and the entrainment of some\nmid-level dry air as noted in previous discussions.  Now that the\ninner core structure has improved and the hurricane is forecast to\nremain over warm waters and in a low shear environment, a faster\nrate of intensification is anticipated during the next 24 to 36 h,\nand Fabio is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.\nBy early Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to reach cooler waters\nand less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should result in\nrapid weakening.  Fabio is forecast to become a post-tropical\nremnant low by day 5.\n\nThe cyclone has moved a little slower than expected over the past 24\nhours and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt.  Fabio is\nforecast to move west-northwestward at a faster forward speed\nto the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from\nnorthern Mexico.  The track guidance is in very good agreement and\nthe NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 12.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 13.7N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 14.7N 114.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 15.8N 117.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 17.0N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 22.6N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 25.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-07-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n300 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018\n\nFabio's cloud pattern has continued to improve over the past several\nhours.  A banding eye-like feature has appeared in visible imagery,\nbut it is not yet evident in IR channels.  A recent ASCAT pass\naround 1730 UTC indicated that the cyclone remains fairly\nasymmetric, but the inner-core has tightened somewhat.  The\ncorresponding AMSU microwave imagery at that time indicated that the\nwestern eyewall was somewhat open, but the latest visible imagery\nsuggests that the eyewall may be finally closing off, despite the\npresence of a dry slot that wraps around the western and southern\nportions of the inner core.  A blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB\nand SAB supported an initial intensity of 70 kt at 1800 UTC, and\ngiven the improvement of the cloud pattern since that time, the\ninitial intensity has been raised to 75 kt.\n\nThe intensity guidance is dramatically different from 24 hours ago,\nand now most of the guidance keeps Fabio below major hurricane\nstrength.  The deep-layer shear is forecast to remain low for at\nleast the next 3 days, but the hurricane only has about 24 hours\nleft to strengthen over warm SSTs.  Beginning around 36 hours, quick\nweakening will occur as it becomes embedded within an unfavorable\nthermodynamic environment.  Given that the inner core of the\nhurricane finally appears to be contracting, the forecast is still\non the high side of the guidance for the first 24 hours, close to\nthe DSHP forecast and similar to the previous advisory.  After that\ntime, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids\nthrough day 5.\n\nThe earlier ASCAT pass indicated that the center was a little north\nof the previous estimates, and this has since been confirmed by the\npresence of the banding eye.  The track forecast has therefore been\nadjusted northward accordingly, but otherwise is very similar to the\nprevious advisory.  Fabio is still forecast to move west-northwest\nto northwestward over the next 4 to 5 days along the southwestern\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge.  The models remain in fairly good\nagreement on the track forecast, and the NHC forecast is near the\nvarious consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 13.8N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 14.4N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 15.5N 115.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 16.6N 118.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 17.9N 121.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 20.8N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 24.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n900 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018\n\nHurricane Fabio is on a strengthening trend.  Recent microwave and\ninfrared satellite images show that the inner core of the hurricane\nhas become better established, but the eye has not yet cleared out\nin geostationary satellite images.  The banding features beyond the\ninner core are also better organized and more symmetric around the\ncenter.  The initial intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt, which\nis at the high end of the Dvorak estimates.\n\nAdditional strengthening is expected overnight and on Tuesday as\nFabio moves into a region of lower wind shear, and remains over warm\nwaters and in a fairly moist air mass.  The NHC forecast shows a\npeak intensity of 100 kt at 24 hours, but given the expected\nfavorable environmental conditions, Fabio could reach its highest\nintensity between the 12- and 24-h periods.  Thereafter, steady or\neven rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane crosses the 26\ndegree C isotherm and moves into a progressively drier airmass.  The\nNHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the\nshort term, but falls in line with the consensus aids at 48 hours\nand beyond.\n\nFabio has jogged to the north and sped up some since the previous\nadvisory, with the initial motion estimated to be 300/12 kt.  The\ntrack forecast is relatively straightforward.  Fabio is expected\nto move west-northwestward to northwestward at a slightly faster\nforward speed during the next several days while it moves around the\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The forward speed\nshould decrease by the end of the forecast period when the system is\nforecast to be shallower and becomes more influenced by easterly\nlow-level flow.  The track models are in very good agreement, and\nthe NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 15.3N 114.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 16.3N 117.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 17.6N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 19.0N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 22.3N 127.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 25.4N 131.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 27.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n300 AM MDT Tue Jul 03 2018\n\nThe eye has been observed intermittently on conventional imagery\nduring the past few hours, and the convection surrounding the\neye has not changed much. In fact, Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB\nand SAB are the same as 6 hours ago, so we are keeping the same\ninitial intensity of 80 kt in this advisory.\n\nAlthough Fabio has not intensified since the last advisory, all the\nfactors are favorable for the hurricane to do so. Consequently, the\nNHC forecast still shows a peak intensity of 100 kt within the next\n24 hours. After that time, a large portion of the circulation will\nbe affected by cooler waters, and gradual weakening should begin.\nNone of the models bring Fabio to 100 kt any more in the 06 UTC run,\nbut they all agree in a weakening trend after 24 hours.\n\nFabio is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 13 kt.\nSince the steering pattern is well established, the track forecast\nis relatively straightforward.  The hurricane is expected to\ncontinue moving toward the west-northwest during the next several\ndays steered by the flow around a persistent subtropical ridge to\nthe north.  The NHC forecast is in the middle of the very tightly\npacked guidance envelope, and also leaning toward the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus HCCA model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 15.1N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 15.8N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 18.2N 121.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 19.7N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 23.0N 128.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 25.8N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 27.0N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n800 AM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018\n\nThe structure of Fabio has improved since the issuance of the\nprevious advisory.  Just prior to 1200 UTC a ring of -70C and colder\ncloud tops wrapped entirely around the warming eye, and an AMSR-2\npass around 0900 UTC indicated that the inner-core convection had\ncontinued to contract and become more symmetric.  Since that time,\nthe eyewall structure has become less clear on IR imagery, and its\nunclear if this is a temporary fluctuation or an indication that\nFabio is already nearing its peak.  The initial intensity has been\nraised to 90 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.\n\nFabio is beginning to run out of time for further intensification.\nThe hurricane should remain within a warm SST, low wind shear\nenvironment for the next 12 to 24 hours.  At least some modest\nstrengthening seems possible over that time, and Fabio is still\nforecast to become a major hurricane later today, however it is\nworth noting that all of the intensity guidance indicates that Fabio\nmay already be near its peak intensity.  Beginning tomorrow, the\nhurricane will be moving over much cooler SSTs and into a more\nstable thermodynamic environment.  Steady to rapid weakening is\ninevitable, eventually causing Fabio to degenerate into a remnant\nlow by the end of the forecast period.  The new NHC intensity\nforecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance at 12 h, but\nvery close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids after that.\n\nThe hurricane has continued to move toward the west-northwest at\naround 13 kt.  All of the dynamical models agree that Fabio will\ncontinue moving west-northwestward to northwestward along the\nsouthern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north for the next\nseveral days.  Very little change has been made to the official\ntrack forecast which remains near the various multi-model consensus\ntrack aids, near the middle of the tightly-clustered guidance\nenvelope through day 5.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 15.2N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 16.1N 117.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 17.2N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 20.2N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 23.1N 129.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 25.5N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 27.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n200 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018\n\nThe overall satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to\nimprove today.  The eye has become better defined and warmed while\nthe ring of cold clouds tops has wrapped more around the center\nsince the previous advisory.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB\nand SAB are consensus T5.0s while objective Dvorak T-numbers from\nUW-CIMSS are T5.9.  Bases on these data, the initial intensity has\nbeen increased to 95 kt.  Fabio has a little time left over warm\nwaters in which to reach major hurricane status, but by early\nWednesday the hurricane will be moving over cooler SSTs and into\nless favorable thermodynamic conditions, which should cause\nthe hurricane to begin to weaken.  A more rapid rate of filling is\nforecast to begin by late Wednesday and Fabio is forecast to weaken\nto a tropical storm within 48 h, and degenerate into a remnant low\nby day 4.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the\nIVCN and HCCA consensus aids.\n\nFabio is moving west-northwestward around 13 kt.  There has been no\nchange to the track forecast reasoning since the previous advisory.\nThe hurricane should move west-northwestward to northwestward\naround the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge that extends\nwestward from northern Mexico.  The track guidance is in excellent\nagreement and the new NHC foreast is essentially an update of the\nprevious advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 15.8N 116.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 16.5N 118.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 17.7N 120.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 19.3N 123.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 20.9N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 23.8N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  08/1800Z 27.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n800 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018\n\nThe intensification trend of Fabio appears to have ended.  Several\nhours ago, satellite images showed a ring of cold cloud tops\nsurrounding a distinct eye.  However, more recent data indicate that\nthe structure of Fabio has deteriorated with a pronounced dry slot\nevident on the east side of the circulation.  Blending the latest\nintensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of\nWisconsin support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt, but this\ncould be a little generous.\n\nFabio is currently over marginally warm 27 degree C waters, but it\nis headed for much cooler waters during the next several days. These\nunfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable airmass\nand an increase in southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening\nthrough the forecast period.  Fabio is forecast to weaken below\nhurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours, and it is predicted to become\na remnant low by 96 hours.  The intensity models are in fair\nagreement, and the NHC forecast lies between the HCCA and ICON\nconsensus aids.\n\nThe hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 13 kt.  There\nis no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Fabio is expected to\ncontinue west-northwestward to northwestward at about the same\nforward speed during the next few days while it moves on the\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  By the end of the\nforecast period, when Fabio is a weak and shallow system, the\ncyclone is predicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by\nthe low-level flow.  The track models remain in good agreement, and\nthe NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 16.5N 117.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 17.4N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 18.9N 122.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 20.4N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 24.8N 131.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 26.7N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/0000Z 28.1N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n200 AM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018\n\nThe eye continues to be distinct, but the convective tops are\nwarming and the area coverage is shrinking.  An average of the TAFB\nand SAB Dvorak T-numbers supports an initial intensity of 90 kt.\nFabio's core is still moving over 26 or 27 degree C waters, but the\nnorthern circulation is already encountering much cooler waters. On\nthis basis, NHC forecast weakening, and Fabio is anticipated to be a\nremnant low in 3 days when its core moves over 20 degree C waters.\n\nThere has been no change in track, and Fabio continues to move\nwest-northwestward at 13 kt.  The hurricane is expected to remain\nsteered by flow around the southwestern periphery of a persistent\nmid-level ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, when Fabio is\nanticipated to be a weak and shallow system, the cyclone is\npredicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by the\nlow-level flow.  The NHC forecast continue to be near the middle of\nthe guidance envelope and very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus\nHCCA.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 17.0N 119.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 18.0N 121.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 19.5N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 21.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 22.5N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 25.0N 132.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/0600Z 27.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/0600Z 29.0N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n800 AM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018\n\nFabio's eye has shrunk and become somewhat distorted while still\nbeing surrounded by very cold cloud tops.  Mainly because of the\ndegradation of the eye, Dvorak estimates have decreased slightly,\nand the initial intensity is set at 85 kt based on a blend of the\nnumbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  The northwest half\nof Fabio's large circulation is now over sub-26C waters, and colder\nwaters and a stable environment will likely induce a fast weakening\nrate over the next two days.  Fabio is forecast to weaken to a\ntropical storm in about 24 hours and then degenerate into a remnant\nlow by day 3.  The updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows\nthe HCCA and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) guidance, and it is\na little lower than the previous forecast during the first 48 hours.\n\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt.  Fabio will\nbe reaching the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge soon,\nallowing the cyclone to turn slightly northwestward through 48\nhours.  Once it becomes a remnant low, Fabio should then turn back\ntoward the west-northwest and slow down within the lower-level\ntrade wind flow.  There is still not much spread in the track\nguidance, and much like the intensity forecast, the official track\nforecast is closest to the HCCA and FSSE guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 17.2N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 18.2N 122.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 19.6N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 22.5N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 24.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1200Z 26.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/1200Z 28.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n200 PM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018\n\nThe convective structure of Fabio has continued to degrade since\nthis morning.  A pair of SSMIS passes around 1500 UTC showed that\ndeep convection was mostly limited to the eastern half of the\nhurricane, and the eye has since filled in on IR imagery.  The\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of\ndata-T and CI numbers from SAB and TAFB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT\nCI number.  The hurricane will be moving over progressively cooler\nSSTs and through a stable environment for the next several days,\nresulting in steady to rapid weakening.  Little change has been made\nto the NHC intensity forecast, which still closely follows the\nintensity consensus and shows Fabio becoming a remnant low within 72\nh.\n\nLikewise, no significant changes have been made to the official\ntrack forecast.  The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward,\nor 295/13 kt.  As long as Fabio remains a tropical cyclone, it\nshould continue on a similar heading and speed as it moves along the\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the northeast.  Once\nthe cyclone becomes a remnant low, Fabio will likely slow down as it\nbecomes steered primarily by the low-level trade wind flow,\neventually causing it to begin a turn toward the west.  The\ndynamical track guidance remains in very good agreement on the track\nof Fabio, and the NHC forecast is very close to TVCN and HCCA.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 17.9N 121.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 18.9N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 20.3N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 21.6N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 22.9N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 25.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1800Z 26.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  09/1800Z 27.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fabio Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n800 PM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018\n\nCloud tops continue to warm near the center of Fabio, and recent\nmicrowave satellite data indicate that the inner core has collapsed\nwith an eye no longer evident. As a result of the convective\nerosion, Dvorak satellite classifications have decreased and only\nsupported about 75 kt at 0000 UTC. Since that time, there has been\nfurther degradation of the convective cloud pattern, so the initial\nintensity has been set a little lower at 70 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 295/12 kt. The\nNHC model guidance remains in good agreement on Fabio maintaining a\nwest-northwestward to northwestward motion around the southwestern\nperiphery of a stagnant, deep-layer subtropical ridge throughout\nthe forecast period. The new NHC forecast is just a little south of\nthe previous advisory track, and lies close a blend of the HCCA and\nFSSE models.\n\nFabio is already currently located over 24 deg C sea-surface\ntemperatures with colder waters ahead of the cyclone. By 48 h, the\nSSTs will be near 19 deg C. As a result, rapid weakening is expected\nthroughout the forecast period, with Fabio becoming a tropical storm\non Thursday and degenerating into a remnant low on Friday. Although\nremnant low status is shown at 120 h, it is quite possible that\ndissipation could occur before then due to the cyclone having been\nlocated over 20 deg C or less SSTs for more than 48 hours. The new\nintensity forecast follows the weakening trend of the previous\nadvisory, and is similar to an average of the more aggressive\nweakening trends of the HCCA and FSSE consensus models, which show\ndissipation at or shortly after 96 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 18.4N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 19.4N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 20.8N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 22.1N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  07/0000Z 23.2N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/0000Z 24.9N 135.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/0000Z 26.2N 138.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  10/0000Z 27.1N 141.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n200 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018\n\nFabio is moving over 23 degree C waters. Consequently, the cloud\npattern has deteriorated significantly during the past several\nhours. The convection has decreased in both intensity and in area\ncoverage, and there is no longer an inner core. Dvorak estimates\nfrom all agencies support to lower the intensity to 60 kt at this\ntime. Since Fabio is heading toward much colder waters, rapid\nweakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become a\nremnant low in about 36 hours, if not sooner.\n\nFabio is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 14 kt\nsteered by the persistent subtropical ridge to the north. As a\nshallow cyclone, Fabio could turn more to the west-northwest\nsteered by the low-level flow.  The NHC forecast continues to be\nin the middle of the tight guidance envelope bounded by the\nmulti-model consensus, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus HCCA.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 19.3N 123.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 20.4N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 21.8N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 23.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  07/0600Z 24.0N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/0600Z 25.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/0600Z 26.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Two Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 AM AST Thu Jul 05 2018\n\nFor the past day or so, we've been monitoring a small area of low\npressure associated with a tropical wave over the tropical Atlantic\nOcean.  Despite a noticeable mid-level rotation in the convective\nclouds, it had not been conclusive whether or not the system had a\nclosed circulation at the surface with a well-defined center.\nHowever, the system appears more distinct and independent from the\nIntertropical Convergence Zone as compared to yesterday, and\nscatterometer data appears conclusive enough to support a closed,\nyet tiny circulation.  We are now confident enough that the system\nmeets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and have initiated\nadvisories on Tropical Depression Two with maximum winds of 30 kt,\nwhich is supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe depression will be located in a relatively low-shear environment\nfor the next 3 days or so.  However, the small cyclone is surrounded\nby abundant dry air, and the system will be moving over marginally\nwarm waters during the next few days, which could both limit\nintensification.  The NHC official forecast allows for some slight\nstrengthening and most closely follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus\nguidance (HCCA), showing the depression becoming a tropical storm\nwithin the next 24 hours.  Between 72 and 96 hours, the system is\nexpected to begin encountering strong westerly shear and also\naccelerate, both of which should cause it to degenerate into an open\nwave east of the Lesser Antilles.\n\nEven though the center has been difficult to locate, the initial\nmotion is estimated to be westward, or 270/14 kt.  The depression is\nlocated to the south of a sprawling subtropical ridge, although a\nbreak in the ridge over the central Atlantic may cause the system to\nslow down a bit during the next 36 hours.  After that time, the\ncyclone is likely to speed up again when it becomes situated to the\nsouth of a new mid-level high.  The track guidance is in generally\ngood agreement, and the NHC official forecast is close to the TVCX\nmulti-model consensus and the HCCA guidance.\n\nEven though the cyclone is expected to dissipate east of the Lesser\nAntilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue\nmoving quickly westward, likely bringing locally heavy rains and\ngusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday and Monday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 10.2N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 10.7N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 11.4N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 12.1N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 12.9N  49.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 14.7N  56.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018\n\nFabio's convective structure has continued to degrade over the past\nseveral hours, and convective banding has become very limited.\nSatellite classifications from TAFB and SAB have decreased\naccordingly and the initial intensity has been set at 55 kt based on\na blend of the subjective data-T and CI numbers.  Fabio is moving\nover 23 to 24 deg C waters, and these cold waters will cause the\ncyclone to continue weakening for the next day or so until it\neventually becomes a remnant low by the weekend.  The new intensity\nforecast is essentially an update of the previous one and closely\nfollows the multi-model consensus.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/15. An SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC\nindicated that the center of Fabio was located a little to the\nnorthwest of the previous estimate. For that reason, the new NHC\ntrack forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory for the\nfirst 36 hours, but is otherwise very similar. Fabio will continue\non a west-northwest to northwest heading for the next 24-36 hours\nwhile it remains a tropical cyclone. Beyond that time, the remnants\nof Fabio will slow down and be steered more west-northwestward to\nwestward by the low-level trade wind flow. All of the dynamical\nmodels remain in very good agreement on the track of Fabio, and the\nNHC forecast is still close to HCCA and TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 20.2N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 21.3N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 22.5N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 23.5N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  07/1200Z 24.2N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/1200Z 25.4N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/1200Z 26.0N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018\n\nBeryl has been a bit of a surprise today, which is not uncommon for\ntiny tropical cyclones such as itself.  A 1724 UTC SSMI microwave\npass and a 1853 UTC SSMI/S pass both revealed that the cyclone had\ndeveloped a well-defined 5 nmi-wide mid-level eye, and a dimple has\nbeen apparent in visible satellite imagery.  It's usually difficult\nto get a good handle on the intensity of these types of cyclones\ngiven their small size, but data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB are a\nconsensus T3.0.  The initial intensity is therefore raised to 45 kt,\nbut there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate.\n\nIf the initial intensity is uncertain, the future intensity is even\nmore of a quandary.  Despite being surrounded by abundant dry air,\nBeryl has apparently been able to isolate itself and possibly\nmoisten the near-storm environment while located in an area of low\nshear.  Since the shear is expected to remain quite low for the next\n36 hours or so, and small cyclones like Beryl often have a tendency\nto strengthen quickly over a short period of time, continued\nintensification appears likely for the next day or so.  The updated\nNHC intensity forecast most closely follows the statistical-\ndynamical guidance, which lies at the upper end of the guidance\nenvelope, and brings Beryl to hurricane strength within 36 hours.\nAfter that time, increasing westerly shear, partially due to Beryl\naccelerating toward the west, is expected to cause weakening.  In\naddition, every global model shows the cyclone opening up into a\ntropical wave in 72-96 hours, which is what the NHC forecast\ncontinues to depict.  It cannot be stressed enough, however, that\nthis is a low confidence forecast.\n\nThe one stable part of the forecast is Beryl's future track.  The\nnew guidance has not changed much from the previous forecast cycle,\nand it continues to show Beryl slowing down a bit during the next 24\nhours, followed by a west-northwestward acceleration in 48-72 hours\ndue to a strengthening ridge to the north.  The updated NHC track\nforecast is just a bit south of the previous one and is closest to\nthe HCCA and Florida State Superensemble guidance.\n\nEven though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser\nAntilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue\nmoving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy\nrains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday\nand Monday.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity.\nConfidence in the official intensity forecast is also much lower\nthan normal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are\ndifficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\n2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone\nby Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely\nbe some rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week.\nResidents there should monitor products from their local weather\noffice for more information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 10.3N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 10.8N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 11.4N  46.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 12.1N  48.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 13.0N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 14.5N  58.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018\n\nFabio is looking more ragged on satellite imagery this afternoon.\nCloud tops have warmed and Dvorak classifications from all\nagencies are decreasing quickly.  The initial intensity has been\nlowered to 45 kt, and given the degradation of the cloud pattern\nover the past few hours, this could be generous.  The cyclone will\nremain embedded within its current stable environment and over cool\nSSTs for the next few days which will cause it to weaken further.\nThe NHC intensity forecast now calls for Fabio to become a tropical\ndepression within 12 hours and become a remnant low between 24 and\n36 hours.  The remnant low will then gradually spin down over the\nfollowing few days, eventually degenerating into a weak trough\naround day 4 or 5.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/15, and Fabio will likely\ncontinue on its current west-northwest to northwest heading for the\nnext 24 hours or so.  A decrease in forward speed and a gradual\nturn toward the west are likely after Fabio becomes a remnant low\nand becomes steered primarily by the surrounding low-level easterly\nflow.  There is a little more spread in the model guidance this\nadvisory cycle, with the speed being the main source of\nuncertainty, and the overall envelope has shifted south. Since I\nhave little reason to favor any one model, the official track\nforecast generally lies between HCCA and the previous advisory, and\nit has been shifted only slightly toward the south throughout the\nforecast period.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 20.6N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 21.6N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 22.7N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 23.5N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  07/1800Z 24.1N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/1800Z 25.0N 139.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  09/1800Z 25.5N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 PM AST Thu Jul 05 2018\n\nTiny Beryl has maintained a small ball of convection near the center\nexcept for a brief period around 2300 UTC when a tight curved band\nwas exposed, revealing 10- to 11-tenths banding. Passive microwave\nsatellite data during the past 6 hours have also indicated\n5-nmi-diameter eye exists underneath the CDO feature.  Given the\nsmall size of the cyclone, which can quickly adjust to convective\nchanges, and a Dvorak satellite estimate of T3.5/55 kt from SAB, the\nadvisory intensity has been increased to 55 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. Most of the latest model\nguidance has made a pronounced southward shift, which is significant\nsince all of the models have displayed a distinct right-of-track,\npoleward bias over the past 48 hours. The ECMWF has had the greatest\npoleward bias, and is now the northernmost solution in the model\nsuite. The GFS, HWRF, and UKMET are now clustered along the southern\nedge of the guidance envelope, with the consensus models somewhere\nin between those latter models and the ECMWF. Given the very small\nsize of Beryl, I am having difficulty envisioning the cyclone moving\ninto the strong subtropical ridge situated to its north and gaining\nas much latitude as the ECMWF has been and is still indicating. As a\nresult, the new NHC forecast track has been shifted south of the\nprevious advisory track, but not as far south as the GFS-HRWF-UKMET\nconsensus, and lies a tad south of the HCCA and FSSE solutions.\n\nWater vapor and model moisture analyses indicate that Beryl has been\nable to maintain a buffer between it and the very dry, stable air\njust to its north, due in large part to the deep, southerly moisture\nfetch coming up from the equatorial region. This pattern is forecast\nby most of the global models to continue for at least the next 48\nhours. That favorable environment, coupled with forecast low\nvertical wind shear conditions of near 5 kt for the next 24 hours,\nshould allow Beryl to achieve hurricane status by late Friday. By 72\nhours when Beryl will be approaching the Lesser Antilles, the shear\nis forecast to increase from the west and northwest at 20-25 kt,\nwhich is expected to induce rapid weakening. All of the global\nmodels continue to show the cyclone opening up into a tropical wave\nshortly after 72 hours, which is what the current forecast continues\nto depict in order to maintain continuity with the previous advisory\ntrack. However, only a slight delay in the onset of the strong shear\nconditions could result in Beryl maintaining tropical cyclone status\nwhen it moves across the Lesser Antilles on Sunday.\n\nEven though Beryl is expected to dissipate just east of the Lesser\nAntilles early next week, the remnant tropical wave will continue\nmoving quickly westward and will likely bring locally heavy rains\nand strong gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands on Sunday\nand Monday.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence\nin the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.\nRapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to\npredict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\n2. While Beryl is still expected to dissipate as a tropical cyclone\nby Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles, there will likely be\nsome rain and wind impacts on those islands early next week.\nResidents there should monitor products from their local weather\noffice for more information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 10.4N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 10.7N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 11.2N  47.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 11.9N  49.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 12.7N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 14.4N  59.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n800 PM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018\n\nThe satellite appearance of Fabio has continued to degrade, as the\nsystem is now comprised mostly of a swirl of low- to mid-level\nclouds with disorganized convection in the southeastern quadrant.\nThe initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of\nvarious satellite intensity estimates.  The center of Fabio is\napproaching sea-surface temperatures near 20C and this should cause\ncontinued weakening, with the convection completely dissipating in\nthe next 12-24 h if not sooner.  The resulting remnant low is\nexpected to persist through 96 h before degenerating into a trough.\n\nThe initial motion is 295/13.  Fabio or its remnants should move\ngenerally west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h toward a\nweakness in the subtropical ridge.  After that time, the system\nshould turn more westward as the low-level tradewind flow becomes\nthe dominant steering mechanism.  The new forecast track is an\nupdate of the previous track that lies close to the consensus\nmodels.\n\nAlthough Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will\naffect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California\nPeninsula for the next day or so.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 21.2N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 22.1N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 23.1N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  07/1200Z 23.8N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  08/0000Z 24.3N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  09/0000Z 25.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/0000Z 26.0N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beryl","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Beryl Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nDeep convection associated with the tiny tropical cyclone has\ncontinued to become better organized overnight.  An earlier AMSR2\nmicrowave overpass showed a well-defined mid-level eye and a\npinhole eye has been apparent in the various GOES-16 satellite\nchannels since shortly after 0600 UTC and was most evident around\n0715 UTC.  Although the clarity of the eye has waxed and waned since\nthat time, there is enough convective organization to increase the\ninitial intensity to 65 kt, making Beryl the first hurricane of the\n2018 Atlantic hurricane season.\n\nThe cyclone has another 18-24 hour within very low vertical wind\nshear conditions and over SSTS of 26-27 degrees Celsius.  These\nfavorable conditions suggest that the tiny hurricane is likely to\nintensify further today.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for\nadditional strengthening and is at the upper-end of the intensity\nguidance, but I would not be too surprised if the compact hurricane\nreaches a slightly higher peak intensity than indicated below. By\n36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 15 kt, and\nit is expected to be greater than 20 kt shortly after that time.\nThis should cause the very small tropical cyclone to quickly\nweaken, however as mentioned in the Key Messages below there is\ngreater uncertainty than usual regarding Beryl's intensity\nforecast.  Although the updated NHC forecast shows Beryl\nreaching the Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm it is highly\npossible that the system will have degenerated into an open trough\nby that time. Regardless of the system's status at 72 h, it is\nlikely to bring strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains to\nportions of the Lesser Antilles Sunday and Monday.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt.  The track guidance\nis in good agreement taking Beryl west-northwestward to the\nsouth of a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic.  There\nhas been little overall change in the latest dynamical guidance and\nthe new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and\nlies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope closest to\nthe latest ECMWF and HFIP correct consensus models.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity. Confidence\nin the official intensity forecast is also much lower than normal.\nRapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are difficult to\npredict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\n2. While Beryl is still to forecast to quickly weaken or dissipate\nas a tropical cyclone on Monday before reaching the Lesser Antilles,\nthere will likely be some rain and wind impacts on those islands\nearly next week. Residents there should monitor products from their\nlocal weather office for more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 10.6N  45.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 11.0N  46.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 11.7N  48.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 12.7N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 13.6N  54.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 15.4N  61.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n200 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nThe remaining deep convection associated with Fabio has dissipated\novernight and the system now consists of a swirl of low- to\nmid-level clouds.  Although the convection has waned, a 0518 UTC\nASCAT pass indicated a large area of 30-35 kt winds primarily over\nthe northern portion of the circulation so the initial intensity\nremains 35 kt for this advisory.  The cyclone will be moving over\nSSTs below 20C very soon and into a more stable environment.  As a\nresult, organized deep convection is not likely to redevelop and\nthe cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low later today and\ncontinue to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The global\nmodels indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough\nof low pressure in a little more than 3 days, and this is reflected\nin the NHC forecast.\n\nThe ASCAT pass suggests that Fabio has moved more westward than\nwest-northwestward overnight, but a general west-northwestward\nmotion is anticipated over the next day or so.  As the remnant low\nweakens it should turn more toward the west before dissipation\noccurs. The new NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous\nofficial forecast, and is close to the various consensus aids.\n\nAlthough Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will\naffect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California\nPeninsula for the next day or so.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 21.5N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 22.3N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  07/0600Z 23.0N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  07/1800Z 23.6N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  08/0600Z 24.0N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  09/0600Z 25.0N 140.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beryl","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Beryl Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 AM AST Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nBeryl is a compact hurricane that had a pinhole eye for a few\nhours before more recently becoming cloud filled again.  Satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.0/65 kt at 12Z, but\nthe Dvorak technique is constrained by width requirements of the\nconvective cloud tops.  That may not be applicable in this case\ngiven Beryl's extremely small size.  By disregarding the width\nconstraints, TAFB was able to provide a data-T number of T4.5/77 kt.\nAs a compromise, the initial intensity is raised to 70 kt.\n\nBeryl has not gained much latitude and is still moving quickly\nwestward with a 12-hour motion estimate of 275/13 kt.  Mid-level\nridging over the subtropical Atlantic is expected to steer Beryl on\na westward to west-northwestward course through the forecast period.\nAn acceleration is forecast to begin in 36-48 hours once Beryl\nbecomes situated to the south of the core of the mid-level\nanticyclone.  Some of the track models have already shown a\nnorthward bias since the cyclone formed yesterday, and the updated\nNHC track forecast is therefore south of the typically better-\nperforming models.  This new forecast is not too different from the\nprevious NHC track and is also just south of the HCCA model and the\nvarious model consensus aids.\n\nDespite the SHIPS model diagnostics showing increasing shear in a\nfew days, global model fields show a well-defined upper-level\nanticyclone following the system at least for the next 3 days.\nAlthough Beryl's expected acceleration may contribute to some\nincreased shear, the SHIPS model is also probably calculating\ndeep-layer shear over too large an area to accurately capture the\nshear isolated to the cyclone's scale.  Given that, the NHC\nintensity forecast is at or above nearly all of the guidance\nthrough 48 hours, which is also higher than what we've been\ndepicting in previous forecasts.  Needless to say, it's becoming\nmore likely that Beryl will maintain hurricane strength when it\nreaches the Lesser Antilles between 48 and 72 hours.  The cyclone is\nalso now likely to persist beyond the 72-hour forecast point, and a\n96-hour point has therefore been added to the official forecast,\nshowing Beryl near or over Hispaniola by day 4.  By that point,\neither increased shear or the terrain of Hispaniola would likely\nlead to dissipation.  But we shall see.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Beryl is now expected to be a hurricane when it moves through\nthe Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some\nislands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are\nincreasing.  However, Beryl is a very small hurricane, and it is too\nearly to determine exactly where those impacts will occur.\nHurricane watches could be needed for portions of the Lesser\nAntilles as soon as tonight.\n\n2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and\nconfidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than\nnormal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are\ndifficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 10.7N  46.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 11.3N  47.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 12.2N  50.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 13.3N  53.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 14.2N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 16.2N  64.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 18.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA\n120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fabio","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Fabio Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n800 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nThe convection associated with Fabio has vanished, and the cyclone\nnow consists of an elongated swirl of low clouds.  The low is\nprobably producing 30 kt winds, but those winds will gradually\nsubside.  The low is forecast to move west-northwestward and then\nwestward and degenerate into a trough of low pressure in a day or\ntwo.\n\nSwells previously generated by the cyclone will continue to affect\nthe coasts of southern California and the Baja California Peninsula\nfor the next day or so.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\nFabio.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 22.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  07/0000Z 23.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  07/1200Z 23.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  08/0000Z 24.0N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beryl","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Beryl Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nBeryl has lost its tiny pinhole eye from earlier this morning, but\nthe system continues to produce a compact area of deep convection\nnear the center.  Since Dvorak estimates have changed little from\nsix hours ago, the initial intensity will remain 70 kt for this\nadvisory.  Global model fields continue to show an upper-level\nanticyclone moving westward in tandem with the hurricane for the\nnext 48 hours or so, which would keep the vertical shear low enough\nto allow for some intensification.  After 48 hours, however, the\nupper-level pattern is expected to evolve to southerlies or\nwesterlies over the system, which would increase the shear and\ncause weakening.  Given the seemingly favorable environment for the\nnext 2 days, the NHC intensity forecast continues to lie along the\nupper bound of the guidance.  After 48 hours, the intensity\nforecast is closer to the HCCA model and the intensity consensus.\nIt bears repeating that the intensity forecast remains highly\nuncertain given Beryl's small size, and the cyclone could just as\neasily dissipate into an open wave sooner than indicated in the\nofficial forecast.\n\nThe hurricane is moving westward, or 270/13 kt, and may have\nactually lost a little latitude today.  Given the more southerly\ninitial position, the track guidance suite has shifted south\naccordingly, and the new NHC track has been adjusted in that\ndirection as well, lying between the model consensus aids and the\nsouthern edge of the solutions.  Additional southward adjustments to\nthe forecast track are likely if Beryl does not gain latitude soon.\n\nGiven the larger-than-normal uncertainties associated with Beryl's\nfuture track and intensity, the governments and meteorological\nservices of several of the countries in the Lesser Antilles have\nelected to issue tropical storm or hurricane watches for their\nislands, sooner than the typical 48-hour threshold for the onset of\ntropical-storm-force winds.  Please refer to products issued by\nthe meteorological services of those respective countries for\nadditional information.\n\nDue to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at\nland locations in the wind speed probability text product are too\nhigh and do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over\nland.  The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics\non the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and in the publicly\ndisseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced\nprobabilities over land.  As a result, users should refer to the NHC\nwebsite graphics and gridded products instead of the text product\nfor the most accurate wind speed probability values until this\nproblem is resolved.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Beryl is expected to be a hurricane when it moves through the\nLesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some\nislands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are\nincreasing.  Hurricane and tropical storm watches have been issued\nby some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional\nwatches could be required for other islands tonight or early\nSaturday.\n\n2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and\nconfidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than\nnormal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are\ndifficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 10.6N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 11.1N  49.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 11.9N  51.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 12.9N  54.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 13.8N  58.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 16.1N  66.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 18.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Three Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nThe area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of\nthe North Carolina coast has developed enough deep convection\nwith a well-defined circulation to be classified as a tropical\ndepression.  This is supported by a Dvorak T-number of 2.0 from\nTAFB, and an earlier ASCAT pass with 25-kt winds, which is the\ninitial intensity assigned to the depression.  Given that the system\nis moving over warm waters and in a low-shear environment, gradual\nstrengthening is indicated, and the NHC forecast shows the\ndepression becoming a tropical storm on Saturday.  Additional\nintensification could occur by the end of the forecast period when\nthe cyclone moves northeastward away from the U.S coast and\ninteracts with a mid-level trough. The intensity forecast is very\nclose to the SHIPS model and the Corrected Consensus HCCA.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees\nat about 4 knots. The tropical cyclone is currently located on the\nsouthwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this weak flow\npattern should keep the depression on the same slow track for the\nnext 24 hours or so.  After that time, the steering currents are\nexpected to collapse, and the cyclone should begin to meander for a\ncouple of days well off the coast of North Carolina.  Then a\nmid-level trough is expected to approach from the west and force\nthe system on a northeastward track.\n\nMost of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds\nassociated with the cyclone will occur in the eastern quadrant\nwell away from the U.S. coast.  On this basis, no watches or\nwarnings are required for the U.S coast at this time, however,\ninterests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the\nprogress of this system.\n\nDue to a technical issue, the wind speed probability values at land\nlocations in the wind speed probability text product are too high\nand do not reflect reduced probabilities that are expected over\nland.  The wind speed probability values provided in the graphics\non the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and in the publicly\ndisseminated grid files do correctly reflect the reduced\nprobabilities over land.  As a result, users should refer to the NHC\nwebsite graphics and gridded products instead of the text product\nfor the most accurate wind speed probability values until this\nproblem is resolved.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 32.2N  73.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 32.9N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 33.7N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 34.0N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 34.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 33.5N  73.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 33.5N  73.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 36.5N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beryl","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Beryl Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 PM AST Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nWhile Beryl continues to produce a cluster of convection near the\ncenter, the system appears a little less organized than earlier.\nIn addition, there are no recent microwave overpasses showing an eye\nunder the overcast.  The various satellite intensity estimates are\nunchanged since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity is\nheld at 70 kt.  However, it is possible that this is a bit generous\ngiven the observed decay of the cloud pattern.\n\nThe hurricane continues moving westward or 280/12.  The track\nguidance insists that a turn toward the west-northwest and an\nincrease in forward speed should occur in the next 12-24 h as Beryl\ncontinues to be steered by the strong subtropical ridge to the\nnorth.  The new NHC forecast again follows this scenario, but it\nlies on the south side of the guidance envelope due to current\ntrends and the overall northeast bias that the track guidance has\nshown so far.  The new NHC track has the center near the Lesser\nAntilles in about 48 h, over the north central Caribbean Sea in\nabout 72 h, and near eastern Cuba in about 96 h - if the system\nactually survives that long.\n\nBeryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear\nenvironment for 36 h or so, then encounter steadily increasing\nwesterly shear as it moves into the Caribbean Sea.  The intensity\nguidance forecasts less strengthening during the time of favorable\nconditions than previously, and based on this first part of the\nintensity forecast is lowered slightly from that of the previous\nadvisory.  Steady to rapid weakening should occur over the eastern\nCaribbean due to stronger shear, and the current forecast has Beryl\nweakening to a tropical wave after 96 h.  An alternative scenario,\nsupported by the large-scale models, is that Beryl weakens to a\ntropical wave near the 72-h point.\n\nThe technical issue with the NHC wind speed probabilities text\nproducts at land locations has been resolved.  The wind speed\nprobability values provided in the text product, the graphics on\nthe the NHC website at hurricanes.gov, and the publicly\ndisseminated grid files will all correctly reflect the reduced\nprobabilities over land.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Beryl is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves through the\nLesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the chance of some\nislands receiving direct impacts from wind and rainfall are\nincreasing.  Hurricane and tropical storm watches are in effect\nfor some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and additional\nwatches could be required for other islands early Saturday.\n\n2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and\nconfidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than\nnormal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are\ndifficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 10.9N  48.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 11.3N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 12.3N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 13.3N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 14.4N  60.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.5N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 19.5N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Three Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 06 2018\n\nThe depression has not become any better organized since the\nprevious advisory.  Deep convection has decreased a little near the\ncenter, but some banding features are still evident on the south\nside of the circulation.  The initial intensity is held at 25 kt,\nin general agreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and\nSAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\n\nThe system is currently over the warm Gulf Stream waters, and it is\nexpected to remain over this current during the next several days.\nThese favorable oceanic conditions combined with light to moderate\nwind shear and a fair amount of moisture near the system should\nallow for gradual intensification.  The SHIPS model is the most\naggressive aid and shows the cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 3\ndays with additional strengthening thereafter.  On the other hand,\nthe HMON model shows no strengthening through the period.  The NHC\nintensity forecast continues to lean toward the high end of the\nguidance due to the conducive environmental conditions for\nstrengthening.\n\nThe depression is moving north-northwestward at 5 kt steered by the\nflow on the western periphery of a subtropical ridge.  A slow\nnorth-northwest to north motion is expected during the next 24 hours\nwhile the steering pattern holds.  However, by Saturday night, the\nsteering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone will\nlikely drift eastward or southeastward on Sunday and Monday.\nThereafter, a shortwave trough is anticipated to approach the system\nand it should finally sweep the cyclone northeastward well east of\nthe U.S. coast beginning on Tuesday.  The latest HWRF model run\nbrings the system inland over the southeastern U.S., but this model\nis an outlier, and the remainder of the guidance shows a track well\noffshore of the U.S. coast.  The NHC track forecast is a tad to the\neast of the previous one to come into better agreement with the\nlatest consensus models.\n\nMost of the guidance suggests that the tropical-storm-force winds\nassociated with the cyclone will occur primarily to the east of the\ncyclone's center well away from the U.S. coast.  Therefore, no\nwatches or warnings are required for the U.S coast at this time,\nhowever, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the\nprogress of this system.\n\nThe technical issue with the NHC wind speed probability text product\nat land locations has been resolved.  The wind speed probability\nvalues provided in the text product, the graphics on the NHC website\nat hurricanes.gov, and the publicly disseminated grid files will all\ncorrectly reflect the reduced probabilities over land.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 32.6N  74.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 33.2N  74.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 33.7N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 33.7N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 33.6N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 33.6N  73.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 34.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 38.0N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beryl","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Beryl Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nAlthough there has been no recent microwave imagery to help examine\nthe inner-core structure of Beryl, the small tropical cyclone\nappears to have lost some organization since yesterday afternoon.\nShortwave GOES-16 infrared imagery suggests that the center is near\nthe northwestern portion of the small convective mass.  Dvorak data\nT-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have dropped to T3.5 while CI\nnumbers support keeping Beryl a 65-kt hurricane, but this could\nbe generous.\n\nThe hurricane seems to have finally gained some latitude and\nthe initial motion estimate is west-northwest or 285/12 kt.  Beryl\nis located to the south of a strong mid-level ridge that is\nanchored over the west-central Atlantic.  This should keep the\ncyclone on a general west-northwestward heading with some increase\nin forward speed over the next few days.  The track models did\nnot change much this cycle and only slight adjustments were made\nto the previous NHC forecast.  The official forecast is once\nagain along the southern side of the guidance envelope, in best\nagreement with the UKMET and FSSE models.\n\nBeryl is expected to remain in a light vertical wind shear\nenvironment today, but an increase in westerly shear is expected on\nSunday, and the shear is forecast to become quite strong as Beryl\nmoves over the eastern Caribbean early next week.  As a result, the\nnew NHC intensity forecast calls for little change in strength\nduring the next 24-36 h, but predicts steady weakening after that\ntime.  The updated intensity forecast is lower than the previous\nadvisory due to the lower initial intensity and less bullish\nintensity guidance.  The new NHC forecast also shows Beryl\ndegenerating into an open trough in 3 to 4 days, which is in good\nagreement within the global models that all predict this to occur\nwhile the system moves across the eastern Caribbean.  Regardless of\nwhether the system has a closed circulation, it is likely to\ncontinue producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall\nover portions of the Greater Antilles next week.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Beryl is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it\napproaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, and the\nchance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and\nrainfall continue to increase.  Hurricane and tropical storm\nwatches are in effect for some of the countries in the Lesser\nAntilles, and additional watches could be required for other\nislands today.\n\n2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and\nconfidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than\nnormal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are\ndifficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 11.1N  49.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 11.7N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 12.6N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 13.7N  57.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 14.8N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 17.2N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Three Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nA pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes at 0136 UTC and 0216 UTC\nrevealed the the depression has not yet strengthened, and its\ncirculation remains very broad.  Although the larger-scale\ncirculation of the cyclone is well-defined, it lacks an inner core,\nand the center of circulation consists of a wide area of light\nwinds.  The initial intensity has been held at 25 kt based primarily\non the ASCAT data, and this is also supported by the latest Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB.\n\nWhile the cyclone was nearly devoid of deep convection for several\nhours late last night and early this morning, a broken convective\nband has since developed to the south of the low-level center.  This\ncould indicate that the depression is beginning to become better\norganized and will begin to slowly strengthen.  Warm SSTs will\nlikely allow the depression to gradually strengthen through the next\n3 to 4 days, however moderate shear and the lack of an existing\ninner-core will likely limit the intensification rate.  The\nintensity guidance has come into better agreement since yesterday,\nand now most of the models show the cyclone nearing or reaching\nhurricane strength. No change has been made to the NHC intensity\nforecast, which is now near the middle of the guidance and very\nclose to HCCA throughout the forecast.\n\nNighttime Proxy-Vis imagery has been very helpful in tracking the\ndepression this morning, which has slowed down and is now estimated\nto be moving north-northwestward or 345/4 kt.  For the first 48 h,\nthe track models remain in fairly good agreement that the cyclone\nwill meander off the coast of the Carolinas, as it becomes trapped\nin the light steering flow between a cold front passing to the north\nand the subtropical ridge to the east.  Beyond that time, there has\nbeen a significant change in the track models, all of which now\ndepict a much faster northeastward motion beginning on Tuesday as\nthe cyclone recurves ahead of a mid-level trough approaching from\nthe northwest. Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted to\nshow a faster motion at day 4 and 5, it is now much slower than all\nof the global models in an effort to maintain continuity from our\nearlier forecasts.  If this trend continues, larger changes will\nneed to be made to the track forecast in future advisories.\n\nMost of the guidance continues to suggest that the\ntropical-storm-force winds associated with the cyclone will occur\nprimarily to the east of the cyclone's center well away from the\nU.S. coast.  Therefore, no watches or warnings are required for the\nU.S coast at this time, however, interests along the North Carolina\ncoast should monitor the progress of this system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 33.2N  74.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 33.6N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 33.8N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 33.9N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 34.0N  73.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 34.5N  72.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 37.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 41.0N  63.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 AM AST Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nBeryl's small size was always going to make it prone to wild and\nunpredictable fluctuations in intensity, and that appears to have\ncome to fruition this morning.  The cyclone's low-level center is\nnow completely exposed with all associated deep convection displaced\nto the east and southeast.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have\ndecreased accordingly, and the initial intensity is set at 55 kt,\nwith Beryl being downgraded to a tropical storm.\n\nEven though upper-level winds over the system remain light, and\nupper-level cloud motions are still from east to west, strengthening\nlow-level flow is likely leading to an increase in the deep-layer\nwesterly shear.  In fact, analyses from UW-CIMSS indicate that\nabout 15 kt of westerly shear is now over the system.  The shear\nand a very dry ambient environment have likely caused the small and\nfragile cyclone to suddenly weaken.  Since the low-level flow is\nexpected to increase further, and Beryl will be running into\nupper-level westerlies in 36-48 hours, the shear is only expected\nto become more hostile.  This will make it extremely difficult for\nBeryl to become more organized again, and its chances of being a\nhurricane before reaching the Lesser Antilles have decreased\nsignificantly.  The updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered\nfrom the previous advisory, and now keeps Beryl as a tropical storm\nthrough the forecast period.  The forecast intensities could still\nbe a little high, and this prediction will remain low confidence\nuntil we get a better handle on Beryl's initial intensity.  Even\nthough a 72-hour forecast is provided, it is entirely possible that\nBeryl will open up into a trough over the eastern Caribbean Sea\nbefore that time.  Regardless of whether the system has a closed\ncirculation, it is likely to continue producing strong gusty winds\nand locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles\nnext week.\n\nBeryl is now gaining more latitude and has an initial motion of\n295/12 kt.  The cyclone is still expected to accelerate toward the\nwest-northwest during the next several days, and the track guidance\nremains tightly clustered through the forecast period.  The new NHC\ntrack forecast has been shifted slightly northward due to Beryl's\nrecent northwestward jog, and it lies relatively close to the HCCA\nguidance.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Beryl is no longer forecast to be near hurricane strength when it\napproaches the Lesser Antilles Sunday night or Monday, but the\nchance of some islands receiving direct impacts from wind and\nrainfall continues.  Tropical storm warnings and watches are in\neffect for some of the countries in the Lesser Antilles, and\nadditional watches or warnings could be required for other islands\nlater today.\n\n2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and\nconfidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than\nnormal.  Rapid changes in intensity, both up and down, that are\ndifficult to predict are possible during the next couple of days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 12.1N  51.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 12.6N  52.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 13.6N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 14.8N  59.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 15.9N  63.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 18.3N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Three Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nAlthough the convection has increased this morning and it seems a\nlittle better organized, surface observations and satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds remain\nat 25 kt. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will check the\ndepression later this morning, so we will have more information\nabout the intensity and structure of the depression later today.\nThe cyclone will remain over warm waters and in a relatively\nlow-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. Based on these\nconditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual strengthening at a\nrate very close to the HCCA corrected consensus model. The cyclone\nwill most likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics by\nthe end of the forecast period.\n\nThe depression is embedded within very weak steering currents, and\nlittle motion is anticipated for the next 2 days. After that time,\nthe cyclone will be steered toward the northeast with increasing\nforward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching\nmid-level trough. Guidance clearly indicates the cyclone's slow\nmotion during the next 2 days, and unanimously forecast the cyclone\nto accelerate to the northeast thereafter.  The NHC forecast is in\nthe middle of the guidance envelope, and very closely follows the\nmulti-model consensus.\n\nGuidance continues to suggest that the forecast tropical-storm-force\nwinds associated with the cyclone will not reach the U.S. coast. On\nthis basis, no watches or warnings are required at this time,\nhowever, interests along the North Carolina coast should monitor the\nprogress of the depression.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 33.1N  74.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 33.4N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 33.5N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 33.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 33.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 35.5N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 39.5N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 47.0N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nBeryl has not changed much in appearance since this morning.  The\nstorm still has a tight low-level circulation with all of the deep\nconvection displaced to the east and southeast of the center.\nScatterometer data missed the circulation this morning, and we still\ndo not have a good handle on Beryl's maximum winds.  Dvorak CI\nnumbers are now 3.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial\nintensity will be lowered to 45 kt, which could still be generous.\n\nBeryl seems to be accelerating sooner than initially anticipated,\nand the 12-hour motion is now west-northwestward, or 295/15 kt.  Not\nonly is the cyclone moving a little faster now, but the track\nguidance is also showing a faster future motion than it had been\nindicating.  The overall guidance envelope has also shifted\nslightly northward.  Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is a\nlittle faster than the previous forecast to be closer to the\nmulti-model consensus aids, and it has been shifted ever-so-slightly\nto the north as well.\n\nWith the low-level easterlies around Beryl increasing, and the\ncyclone expected to run into upper-level westerlies in about 24\nhours, the deep-layer shear is forecast to strengthen over the next\ncouple of days.  This increased shear and nearby dry air will likely\ncause Beryl to continue weakening, and the updated NHC intensity\nforecast now shows the cyclone weakening to a tropical depression by\nthe time it reaches the eastern Caribbean Sea, if not sooner.  Beryl\nis then likely to open up into a trough shortly after 48 hours,\nwhich is shown by all the global models.  It should be noted that\ndespite the expected weakening, some of the global models show deep\nconvection reigniting due to upper-level divergence to the east of\na trough, and even as an open wave the system will still likely\nproduce gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward\nIslands and portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several\ndays.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Beryl has continued to weaken today, but there is still a chance\nof some islands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from\nwind and rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches\nremain in effect.  Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will\nalso be possible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the\nVirgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through early next week.\n\n2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and\nconfidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than\nnormal.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 12.7N  52.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 13.4N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 14.6N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 15.9N  62.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 17.3N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Three Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nAn Air Force reconnaissance aircraft investigated the depression a\nfew hours ago and found that the circulation is still somewhat\nelongated with a minimum pressure of 1015 mb. The plane measured\nflight-level winds which support an initial intensity of\n30 kt. These winds were confined to a convective band south of the\ncenter. The satellite presentation has not improved very much since\nthe morning advisory. The cyclone will remain over warm waters and\nin a relatively low-shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days.\nBased on these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for gradual\nstrengthening, and the depression is expected to become a tropical\nstorm within the next 12 hours or so.  Additional intensification\nis anticipated when the cyclone moves toward the northeast over the\nopen Atlantic as indicated by most of the models.  The cyclone will\nmost likely begin to acquire extratropical characteristics over\ncold waters by the end of the forecast period.\n\nThe depression continues to be embedded within very weak steering\ncurrents, and little motion is anticipated for the next 2 days.\nAfter that time, the cyclone will be steered toward the northeast\nwith increasing forward speed within the southwesterly flow ahead of\nan approaching mid-level trough. Guidance continues to clearly\nindicate the cyclone's slow drift during the next 2 days, and\nunanimously forecast the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast\nthereafter.  The NHC forecast continues to be in the middle of the\nguidance envelope, and very closely follows the multi-model\nconsensus.\n\nGuidance continues to suggest that the cyclone will not approach\nthe coast and that the forecast tropical-storm-force winds\nwill not reach the U.S. coast. On this basis, no watches or warnings\nare required at this time, however, interests along the North\nCarolina coast should monitor the progress of the system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 32.9N  75.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 33.0N  75.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 33.0N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 32.9N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 34.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 40.0N  63.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 48.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 PM AST Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nBeryl is currently comprised of a small swirl of low- to mid-level\nclouds with isolated patches of deep convection near and east of the\ncenter.  Satellite intensity estimates have decreased a little\nsince the previous advisory, and based on them the initial\nintensity is set to a possibly generous 40 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 290/16.  A strong low- to mid-level\nsubtropical ridge north of Beryl should steer the system quickly\nwest-northwestward during the next 36-48 h, and the track guidance\nis in excellent agreement on this.  So, the new track forecast is an\nupdate of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the\ntrack guidance envelope.\n\nWesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase over Beryl\nduring the next 48 h, and the cyclone will also be moving into a\ndrier and more stable air mass.  Based on this, the official\nintensity forecast calls for continued weakening, with Beryl\nforecast to weaken to a depression just after moving through the\nLesser Antilles and then degenerate into a tropical wave just\nafter 36 h.  It should be noted that the official forecast is based\non the premise that enough convection will return to the system to\npartly sustain it, and if this does not happen Beryl could weaken\nto a wave sooner than currently forecast.  However, it should also\nbe noted that even as an open wave the system will likely produce\ngusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward Islands\nand portions of the Greater Antilles during the next several days.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Beryl continues to weaken, but there is still a chance of some\nislands in the Lesser Antilles receiving direct impacts from wind\nand rainfall, where tropical storm warnings and watches remain in\neffect.  Gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will also be\npossible across the remainder of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin\nIslands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola through early next week.\n\n2. Due to its very small size, there is greater-than-usual\nuncertainty in the analysis of Beryl's current intensity, and\nconfidence in the official intensity forecast is also lower than\nnormal.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 13.1N  54.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 14.0N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 15.3N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 16.6N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Three Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018\n\nThe depression is gradually becoming better organized. Geostationary\nsatellite and microwave images indicate that the center is located\non the northern side of a convective burst and to the east of a\nbroken curved band.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in\nagreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB and ADT values\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  This estimate also uses\ndata from NOAA buoy 41002 located about 60 n mi south-southeast of\nthe center.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to\ninvestigate the system overnight, and it should provide a better\nestimate of the cyclone's intensity.\n\nSatellite fixes suggest that the depression has now stalled, as\nforecast. The cyclone is caught in very weak steering currents\nbetween two mid-level ridges and a mid- to upper-level trough to its\nnorth. A very slow southeastward motion is expected during the next\ncouple of days as ridging builds to the north of the system.\nThereafter, a sharp northeastward turn with an abrupt increase in\nforward speed is predicted when a deep-layer trough approaches the\ncyclone.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south\nof the previous one in the short term based on the latest guidance.\n\nThe depression is presently over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream\nCurrent and it will remain over these warm SSTs during the next few\ndays. In addition, light to moderate wind shear and perhaps some\nbaroclinic forcing from the approaching trough should allow the\ncyclone to steadily strengthen during the next few days. The NHC\nintensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope. Extratropical transition\nis forecast to occur in a little more than 4 days when the system is\nexpected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current and move\nover very cold waters.\n\nAlthough the depression is expected to remain offshore of the North\nCarolina coastline, the tight pressure gradient between the\ndepression and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. is expected\nto produce gale-force winds over Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.\nSee products issued by the National Weather Service forecast offices\nfor more details.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 32.9N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 32.8N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 32.6N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 32.4N  74.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 32.3N  73.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 34.5N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 41.0N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 49.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nA burst of deep convection developed over the eastern portion of\nBeryl's circulation just after the release of the previous\nadvisory.  The convective burst has expanded overnight and\nthe earlier exposed center of the cyclone is now located near\nthe northwestern edge of the convective cluster.  Subjective Dvorak\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged, and the initial\nintensity remains 40 kt for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve\nreconnaissance aircraft is currently en route to Beryl and should\nprovide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity this morning.\n\nThe intensity forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous\nadvisory. Westerly vertical wind shear is expected to increase over\nBeryl during the next 24 to 36 h, and the cyclone will be moving\ninto a drier mid-level environment.  As a result, Beryl is expected\nto weaken and degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the\neastern Caribbean Sea.  However, the system will likely produce\nstrong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the Leeward\nIslands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico during the next few\ndays.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving quickly west-northwestward or 290/17\nkt. Beryl should continue on this general heading with some\nincrease in forward speed as it is steered by a strong mid-level\nridge to the north.  The track guidance remains in fairly good\nagreement but there has been some increase in the cross track\nspread at 24 and 36 h with the GFS and HWRF along the southern\nedge of the guidance and the ECMWF bracketing the northern side of\nthe envelope.  The NHC track is in the middle of the envelope,\nclose to the various consensus models, and in best agreement with\nthe HFIP corrected consensus.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions\nof the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts\nfrom wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today\nor tonight.\n\n2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low\npressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce\nstrong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder\nof the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and\nHispaniola through Tuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 13.7N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 14.7N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 15.9N  62.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 17.4N  66.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has been investigating\nthe cyclone early this morning, and found flight-level winds of 45\nkt at 925 mb and believable SFMR surface winds of around 34\nkt in the southeast quadrant.  On this basis, the system has been\ndesignated as Tropical Storm Chris, the 3rd named storm of the 2018\nAtlantic season.\n\nAlthough the winds associated with the tropical storm have increased\na little, the overall organization of Chris has not changed much\nover the past few hours.  The low-level center is still exposed to\nthe north of a broken band of deep convection and the cyclone lacks\nan inner-core.  Chris is located over very warm SSTs and will\nremain so for the next several days.  While the broad nature of the\ncyclone's circulation and some moderate shear will likely limit the\nintensification rate over the next day or so, all of the intensity\nguidance indicates that Chris will become a hurricane within about\n72-h.  By day 4, the intensity forecast is more uncertain,\nand depends strongly on the timing of Chris crossing the Gulf\nStream, since the cyclone is expected to continue to intensify as\nlong as it remains over warm waters.  Once extratropical transition\nbegins, weakening should occur as the wind field broadens.  The new\nintensity forecast is close to HCCA and IVCN through day 3, and\nslightly lower beyond that, closer to the previous forecast.\n\nThe track guidance has once again made a large shift with the latest\nforecast cycle.  While Chris is generally expected to continue to\nmeander off the coast of the Carolinas for the next couple of days\nbefore accelerating to the northeast ahead of a deep-layer trough\napproaching from the northwest, the timing of this acceleration is\nhighly uncertain.  Nearly all of the dynamical models have now\nshifted to the south and west of their previous forecasts throughout\nmost of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted in that direction, but now lies on the eastern side of the\nguidance envelope, and shows a faster motion than most of the\nmodels.  Given the large run-to-run inconsistency of the guidance\nover the past 24 hours, I would prefer to wait to make a more\nsignificant change to the forecast until a more clear pattern\nemerges.\n\nThe Air Force reconnaissance plane also measured winds to\ngale-force about 20 miles off the coast of North Carolina.  These\nwinds are associated with the tight pressure gradient between\nChris and high pressure over the northeastern U.S.  See products\nissued by the National Weather Service forecast offices for more\ndetails.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 33.0N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 33.0N  75.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 32.8N  75.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 32.6N  75.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 32.7N  74.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 35.2N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 41.5N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 49.0N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Beryl\nearlier this morning was unable to find a closed low-level center.\nHowever, the wind data from the aircraft indicated that a sharp\nthrough did exist northeastward of the deep convection located in\nthe northeastern quadrant of the larger circulation. Since that\ntime, a stronger burst of convection has developed over the sharp\ntrough, and the assumption is that the convection could have\nspun up a new center. For that reason, the system is still being\nconsidered as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The highest\n850-mb flight-level wind measured was 56 kt in the northeast quad,\nwhich equates to about a 45-kt surface wind. However, the advisory\nintensity is being maintained at 40 kt in case the recent convective\ndevelopment doesn't persist. Another reconnaissance mission into\nBeryl is scheduled for this evening.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/20 kt. Beryl is expected to\nmaintain this quick west-northwestward motion through dissipation\ndue to the strong and broad deep-layer ridge that extends\neast-to-west across most of the subtropical Atlantic Ocean. The\nlatest model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous\nadvisory track, so no significant changes were required.\n\nFor now, Beryl seems to have found a sweet spot where the vertical\nwind shear is a little lower and more difluent based on water vapor\nimagery. However, this localized favorable upper-level wind flow\npattern is expected to be short-lived and give way to more hostile\nshear conditions by 12 hours and beyond when the shear is forecast\nto increase to more than 25 kt from the west. The result should be\na rapid degeneration of the cyclone into an open wave by 24 h when\nthe system will be moving over the eastern Caribbean Sea. However,\nthe system will likely produce strong gusty winds and locally heavy\nrainfall across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto\nRico during the next couple of days. On days 3-5, there appears to\nbe an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a\ntropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into\nthe southwestern Atlantic. Vertical wind shear conditions are\nforecast by most of the models to be light, with even the\npossibility of the development of a weak upper-level anticyclone\nacross the Bahamas. The combination of the favorable upper-level\nwind flow pattern in conjunction with sea-surface temperatures of\n28-29 deg C should yield conditions conducive for the reformation of\na tropical cyclone, although Beryl's low-level remnants are likely\nto be significantly disrupted by Hispaniola and could take some time\nto reform.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Tropical storm warnings and watches are in effect for portions\nof the Lesser Antilles where Beryl is forecast to bring impacts\nfrom wind and rainfall to some of the islands beginning late today\nor tonight.\n\n2. Although Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low\npressure over the eastern Caribbean, the system is likely to produce\nstrong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across the remainder\nof the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and\nHispaniola through Tuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 14.4N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 15.4N  60.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 16.8N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE\n 36H  10/0000Z 18.4N  68.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE\n 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane has been traversing the circulation of\nChris, and found that the wind field is gradually becoming better\ndefined, while the central pressure has dropped to 1006 mb. Maximum\nwinds so far from the SFMR are 40 kt, and this will be the intensity\nassigned to Chris in this advisory. Another reconnaissance aircraft\nwill check the cyclone this afternoon. Recent high resolution\nsatellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better\norganized with the low-level center now embedded within the\nconvection. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water for\nthe next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear.  On\nthis basis, the NHC forecast calls for Chris to become a hurricane\nin about 36 hours in agreement with the dynamical guidance and the\nHCCA model consensus. In about 4 days, Chris will be over 13\ndegree C water, and this should encourage extratropical transition.\n\nSince the steering currents surrounding Chris collapsed, the cyclone\nhas barely moved since yesterday. These currents are foreast to\nremain light, so little motion is anticipated during the next 2\ndays.  A mid-level trough forecast to swing eastward across the\neastern United States will provide enough forcing to kick Chris\nnortheastward with increasing forward speed over the Atlantic beyond\n72 hours. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the track guidance\nenvelope and follows closely the corrected consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 32.9N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 33.0N  74.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 32.5N  74.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 32.5N  75.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 34.5N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 50.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Beryl","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Beryl Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and ASCAT scatterometer wind data confirm the\nsharp open-trough pattern that was indicated by earlier aircraft\nreconnaissance wind data. Although Beryl has a well-defined, tight\nvortex noted in GOES-16 hi-res visible satellite imagery, that\nfeature appears to be located above the surface. The latest radar\ndata from Martinique also shows little if any rotation in the most\nrecent convective burst that has developed just north of the\naforementioned vortex. Given that the remnants of Beryl are now\nmoving at a forward speed of at least 23 kt, it is highly unlikely\nthat the very small circulation is closed at the surface.  The\nintensity remains at 40 kt based on the earlier reconnaissance 56-kt\nflight-level wind data and the latest burst of convection that has\ndeveloped in the same general location as those earlier winds. Now\nthat Beryl is no longer considered to be a tropical cyclone, the\nreconnaissance mission for this evening has been canceled.\n\nOn days 3-5, there appears to be an opportunity for the remnants of\nBeryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves\nthrough the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. Vertical\nwind shear conditions are forecast by most of the models to be\nlight, with even the possibility of the development of a weak\nupper-level anticyclone across the Bahamas. The combination of the\nfavorable upper-level wind flow pattern in conjunction with\nsea-surface temperatures of 28-29 deg C should yield conditions\nconducive for the reformation of a tropical cyclone, although\nBeryl's low-level remnants are likely to be significantly disrupted\nby Hispaniola and could take some time to reform.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl\nshould maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next\n12 hours, passing over the Leeward Islands tonight and moving into\nthe northeastern Caribbean Sea Monday morning. Although Beryl is no\nlonger a tropical cyclone, advisories will continue to be issued on\nthis system until the tropical storm watch for Dominica has been\ndiscontinued.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Tropical storm conditions are possible for Dominica tonight.\nElsewhere across the Leeward Islands, strong gusty winds and locally\nheavy rains are possible tonight and Monday, and these conditions\nare expected to spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and\nHispaniola on Tuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 15.2N  60.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.2N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE\n 24H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the cloud pattern continues to become\nbetter organized, and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have increased\nto 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. This was confirmed by data from an Air\nForce reconnaissance plane which reported flight-level winds of 51\nkt on the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity is set at 45 kt\nin this advisory. Chris is expected to be over a pool of warm water\nfor the next 2 days and embedded within an environment of low shear.\nOn this basis, the NHC forecast continues to call for Chris to\nbecome a hurricane in about 36 hours. This is in agreement with the\ndynamical guidance and the HCCA model consensus which strengthen\nChris to a hurricane in a couple of days. In about 4 days, Chris\nwill be over 13 degree C Canadian waters, and this should encourage\nextratropical transition.\n\nThe steering currents have collapsed, and the cyclone has barely\nmoved all day. These currents are foreast to remain light, so little\nmotion is anticipated during the next 2 days.  A mid-level trough\nforecast to swing eastward across the eastern United States will\nprovide enough forcing to kick Chris northeastward with increasing\nforward speed over the Atlantic beyond 72 hours. The NHC forecast\ncontinues to be in the middle of the track guidance envelope and\nfollows closely the corrected consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 32.7N  74.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 32.5N  74.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 32.3N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 32.3N  74.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 33.0N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 36.5N  69.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 43.5N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 50.0N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Beryl","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Beryl Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nThe remains of the center of Beryl have crossed Dominica during\nthe past few hours, accompanied by a disorganized area of\nconvection.  Radar and surface observations continue to show that\nthe system is an open wave.  There have been no observations of\nsustained tropical-storm-force winds from Dominica or Guadeloupe, so\nthe initial intensity is decreased to a probably generous 35 kt.  In\nthe short term, increasing vertical wind shear should cause\ncontinued weakening of the system, with the remains of the center\ndissipating in the next 12 h.\n\nBetween 72-120 h, there may be an opportunity for the remnants of\nBeryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves\nthrough the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic.  However,\ndue to a lack of agreement by the dynamical models and the\nuncertainty about how the tropical wave will be disrupted by passage\nover Hispaniola, the chances of regeneration are currently in the\nlow category.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl\nshould maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next\n12 hours as they move through the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the\nsouth of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.\n\nThis is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane\nCenter.  Additional information on this system can be found in High\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\nat http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. As the tropical wave moves across the northeastern Caribbean Sea,\nstrong gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible across the\nLeeward Islands tonight and Monday, and these conditions expected to\nspread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola by\nMonday night.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 15.8N  62.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE\n 12H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 PM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018\n\nChris is on a strengthening trend.  Deep convection has been\nexpanding over the center and recent microwave images show an\nimproved structure with tightly curved bands, especially on the\nnorth and east sides of the circulation.  The NOAA Hurricane Hunters\nare currently investigating Chris and so far they have found a\nminimum pressure of 1005 mb and maximum flight-level winds of 57 kt,\nwhich would support a 50-kt intensity.  The initial intensity is\nincreased to 50 kt, but this is a little lower than the latest\nDvorak estimates.\n\nChris has not moved much today as it remains caught in very weak\nsteering currents between two mid-level highs and a mid- to\nupper-level trough to its northeast.  Since this pattern is not\nexpected to change much during the next day or so, Chris is likely\nto continue to drift around during that time period.  On Tuesday,\nhowever, a deep-layer trough is expected to approach the storm and\nthat should finally cause Chris to pull away to the northeast.  A\nvery fast northeastward motion is forecast toward the end of the\nperiod when the cyclone becomes embedded in strong mid-latitude\nflow.  The NHC track forecast is not too different than the previous\none and lies near the various consensus aids.\n\nAdditional strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days as\nChris remains over the warm Gulf Stream waters and in a moderate\nwind shear environment.  The global models suggest that Chris could\nalso benefit from baroclinic enhancements ahead of the approaching\ntrough.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the HCCA and ICON\nmodels and brings Chris to hurricane strength on Monday with\nadditional strengthening into Tuesday.  Steady weakening should\nbegin shortly after 72 hours, and extratropical transition should be\ncomplete by 96 hours when Chris crosses the north wall of the Gulf\nStream and is over very chilly 10 degree C waters.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one during\nthe next few days to be in better agreement with the latest\nguidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 32.5N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 32.4N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 32.3N  74.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 32.3N  74.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 33.5N  73.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 37.5N  68.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 43.6N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/0000Z 49.5N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018\n\nAfter the expansion of deep convection during the evening it\nappears that some drier air has been entrained into the\ncirculation which has caused a general warming of the cloud tops\nand some erosion of the deep convection overnight. However, the\nbanding remains well organized and the overall structure of the\ncyclone has not changed appreciably.  An Air Force Reserve\nreconnaissance aircraft investigating the system has found that the\nminimum pressure has dropped to 999 mb, but the flight-level and\nSFMR winds still support an initial intensity of 50 kt.\n\nRecent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Chris is\ndrifting southward.  Steering currents are expected to remain\nquite weak during the next 36 hours as Chris is situated between a\ncouple of mid-level highs and a mid- to upper-level trough to its\nnortheast.  By late Tuesday, a deep-layer trough moving across the\nGreat Lakes region should begin to lift Chris out toward the\nnortheast.  The cyclone is predicted to accelerate northeastward\nduring the remainder of the forecast period as it gets caught in\nstrong southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough.  The\ntrack models are in good agreement on this general scenario but\nthere are some differences in how fast Chris accelerates over the\nwestern Atlantic.  The new NHC track forecast has been shifted\nslightly northwestward to be in better agreement with the latest\nguidance, and it remains near the model consensus to account for\nthe forward speed differences among the various track models.\n\nThe cyclone should be able to mix out the dry air that it entrained\nwhile it is located over warm water and in light to moderate\nvertical wind shear conditions.  This should allow strengthening\nduring the next couple of days, but there could be some upwelling\nbeneath the slow moving cyclone which could temper the rate of\nintensification.  The new NHC track forecast shows a slightly slower\nrate of deepening during the next 24 to 36 h, but still forecasts\nChris to become a hurricane later today or tonight, and reach about\nthe same peak intensity as shown in the previous advisory.  The\nhurricane should become extratropical by 96 h, and the global models\nindicate that steady weakening will occur after that time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 32.4N  74.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 32.4N  74.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 32.5N  74.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 34.2N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 39.0N  66.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 45.5N  59.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/0600Z 49.5N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018\n\nA NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Chris this morning has\nfound little change in the overall structure of the cyclone. The\npeak 8000-ft wind measured was 60 kt to the south of the center\nalong with a 51-kt SFMR surface wind. The minimum pressure has also\nremained steady at 999 mb during the entire mission which is still\nongoing. Although an eye-like feature has briefly appeared in\nWSR-88D Doppler radar data from Morehead City and in satellite\nimagery as well, the convection surrounding that feature has been\nmostly shallow and ragged. Based on these data, the intensity\nremains at 50 kt for this advisory.\n\nAir Force and NOAA reconnaissance fixes the past several hours and\nsatellite fixes indicate that Chris has moved little. Steering\ncurrents are forecast to remain weak for the next 24 hours or so,\nresulting in continued slow movement. By 36 hours, however, a\nshortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward out of Canada and\ninto the northeastern U.S. and mid-Atlantic states, which should\nhelp to eject the cyclone northeastward. By 48 hours and beyond, the\nshortwave trough will help to amplify a deep-layer trough near the\nU.S. east coast, causing Chris to accelerate northeastward toward\nthe Atlantic Canada region. The NHC model guidance continues to show\nlittle cross-track differences, but fairly significant along-track\nor speed differences. As a result, the official forecast track\nremains close to the consensus track models.\n\nA narrow band of dry mid-level air has wrapped all the way around\nand into the inner-core region, which has caused some erosion of the\nassociated convection, along with some upwelling.  However, the\nreconnaissance wind data indicated that Chris has a relatively small\nradius of maximum winds (RMW) of 15 nmi to the south and about 25\nnmi to the north. This well-defined inner-core wind field, coupled\nwith warm water and low vertical shear conditions, should enable the\ncyclone to mix out the dry air later today and tonight, which will\nallow for strengthening to begin. The intensification process should\nbe steady at a near-normal rate for the next 36 hours or so,\nfollowed by gradual weakening in a few days as the waters beneath\nChris begin to cool and the wind shear increases from the southwest.\nBy 72 hours and beyond, Chris will be over much colder water (SSTs\nless than 20 deg C) and within a high shear environment of 30 kt or\nmore, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful\nextratropical cyclone as the system approaches Newfoundland.  The\nextratropical low is forecast to interact or merge with a strong\ncold front by 96 hours when the cyclone is near Newfoundland, which\nwill enhance the extratropical transition process. The new intensity\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and shows Chris\nreaching hurricane strength by Tuesday. Chris could reach a peak\nintensity of 80 kt between the 36 and 48 hour time periods before\nweakening begins shortly thereafter.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 32.2N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 32.3N  74.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 32.4N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 33.3N  73.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 34.8N  70.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 40.5N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 47.0N  55.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/1200Z 51.1N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018\n\nSatellite, Doppler radar, and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft data\nthis afternoon indicate that inner-core region of Chris has\nimproved in organization, and that the cyclone has strengthened\nsome. A peak 850-mb flight-level of 73 kt was measured in the\nsouthwestern quadrant along with slightly rain-contaminated SFMR\nsurface winds of 53-59 kt. The central pressure has also decreased\nto 997-996 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased\nto 60 kt for this advisory.\n\nNOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance fixes thus far today\nindicate that Chris has essentially remained nearly stationary for\nthe past 9 hours. Steering should remain weak for the next 24 hours\nor so due to the cyclone being trapped in a large break in the\nsubtropical ridge, thus little motion is expected.  However, by 36\nhours and beyond, a deepening mid-latitude trough along the U.S.\nNortheast and mid-Atlantic coasts is forecast to gradually lift out\nChris to the northeast, with more significant northeastward\nacceleration occurring by 72 hours and beyond. Chris is expected to\nmove across the offshore waters of Atlantic Canada on days 4 and 5\nas a powerful extratropical low, possibly passing over southeastern\nNewfoundland around the 96-hour time period. The NHC model guidance\ncontinues to show fairly significant along-track or speed\ndifferences. As a result, the official forecast track remains close\nto the consensus track models TVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.\n\nA band of very dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 45\npercent has completely encircled Chris, and the cyclone is beginning\nto take on the appearance of an annular formed hurricane with a new\n15-nmi-diameter, cloud-filled eye having within the central\nconvective cloud mass during the past couple of hours. The\nwell-defined inner-core wind field, in conjunction with the with\nSSTs near 28 deg C and a low vertical wind shear regime, should act\nto maintain inner-core convective development. The result should be\ngradual strengthening over the next day or, with Chris becoming a\nhurricane later tonight or Tuesday morning and reaching a peak\nintensity of 80 kt by 36 hours. Gradual weakening should commence by\n48 hours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler water and\nsouthwesterly wind shear begins to increase to near 20 kt. By 72\nhours and beyond, Chris will be over SSTs less than 20 deg C and\nwithin stronger shear environment ahead of an approaching deep-layer\ntrough, which will induce a rapid transition to a powerful\nextratropical cyclone before the system approaches Newfoundland in\nabout 96 hours. The extratropical low is forecast to merge with a\ncold front in 96-120 hours, which should enhance the extratropical\ntransition process. The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update\nof previous two advisories, and similar to the intensity model FSSE,\nwhich is sightly higher than the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus\nmodels.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 32.2N  74.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 32.3N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 32.8N  73.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 34.0N  71.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 36.1N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 42.2N  61.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  13/1800Z 48.3N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  14/1800Z 52.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 09 2018\n\nReports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Chris\nhas changed little in strength during the past several hours.  The\naircraft has reported maximum flight-level of 63 kt at 700 mb to\nthe southwest of the center, along with a somewhat-uncertain maximum\nSFMR surface wind estimate of 61 kt.  The latest reported central\npressure is 995 mb.  Based on these, the initial intensity will be\nheld at a possibly generous 60 kt.  The aircraft also reported that\na partial eyewall of 20-30 n mi diameter has formed, but has not yet\nbeen able to close off.\n\nChris has moved little since the last advisory, as it remains\ntrapped in a break in the subtropical ridge.  A large mid-latitude\ntrough is forming over eastern Canada and the northeastern\nUnited States, and as this system develops southward it should\nbreak down the ridge and steer Chris to the northeast after about\n12 h, with an increasing forward speed expected thereafter as the\ntropical cyclone enters the mid-latitude westerlies.  Chris should\npass east of the Canadian Maritimes in about 72 h, then pass near or\nover southeastern Newfoundland between 72-96 h.  The track guidance\ngenerally agrees with this scenario, although some spread remains\nin the forecast forward speed.  The new forecast track is an update\nof the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.\n\nThe sea surface temperature at NOAA buoy 41002, located 45 n mi\nsouthwest of the center of Chris, has dropped to near 25C, and it is\npossible that the temperatures are colder under the center.  This\nocean cooling, due to upwelling caused by the slow motion of the\nstorm, has likely slowed the intensification of Chris despite an\notherwise favorable environment and storm structure.  Significant\nintensification now appears unlikely until the cyclone actually\nstarts moving.  Based on this and the forecast track, the new\nintensity forecast will delay Chris' intensification into a\nhurricane until the 18-24 h point.  After that, Chris should\nstrengthen until it moves north of the Gulf Stream and starts to\nmerge with a frontal system.  Extratropical transition is expected\nto be complete by 72 h, with the extratropical low gradually\ndecaying as it moves across the north Atlantic.  The new intensity\nforecast follows the overall trend of the intensity guidance except\nduring the first 12 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 32.3N  74.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 32.6N  73.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 33.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 35.1N  70.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 37.7N  66.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 44.0N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/0000Z 49.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/0000Z 52.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Chris has improved overnight with an\nincrease in convective banding and the recent development of a\nbanding eye.  An earlier NOAA and an overnight Air Force Reserve\naircraft have noted the presence of a ragged 25 n mi wide eye, which\ncan also be seen in NWS WSR-88D radar imagery from Morehead City,\nNorth Carolina.  Despite the increase in organization the Air Force\naircraft did not find winds to support hurricane strength.  In\nfact, the plane only measured peak 850 mb flight level winds of 66\nkt and SFMR winds of around 50 kt.  However, there is likely some\nundersampling as the plane only made one pass through each quadrant.\nTherefore the initial remains 60 kt, which is compromise between\nthe most recent satellite estimates and the lower reconnaissance\ndata.  The aircraft did report that the pressure has fallen to 993\nmb.\n\nRecent satellite and aircraft fixes suggest that Chris may be\nbeginning its much anticipated northeastward motion, albeit very\nslow at the moment.  A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to drop\nsoutheastward over eastern Canada and the northeastern United States\nwhich should begin to steer Chris on a faster northeastward heading\nover the next day or so.  As the trough deepens, Chris should\naccelerate further as it becomes embedded within deep-layer\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of the trough.  Chris is forecast to pass\nwell southeast of Nova Scotia in a couple of days, then move near\nor over southeastern Newfoundland in about 72 hours.  The track\nguidance remains in good agreement on this scenario, but some\nspeed differences remain.  The updated NHC track forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory and lies between the slower ECMWF\nand the various consensus aids.\n\nAs Chris begins to move northeastward, it will be leaving the area\nof upwelled cooler waters and traversing warm SSTs during the\nnext 24 to 36 h.  This should result in strengthening and Chris is\nexpected to become a hurricane later today.  By 48 h, Chris will be\nmoving over colder waters north of the Gulf Stream and begin\ninteracting with a frontal system.  Extratropical transition is\nexpected to be complete in about 60-72 h, and the extratropical low\nis forecast to gradually weaken after passing Newfoundland.  The\nnew NHC intensity forecast is closest to the Florida State\nSuperensemble, which is a little higher than the statistical\nguidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 32.6N  73.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 33.1N  73.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 34.4N  71.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 36.5N  68.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 39.7N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 46.5N  53.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/0600Z 50.7N  38.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/0600Z 53.0N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 AM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018\n\nDuring the past 6 hours, Chris has developed a well-defined eye in\nboth satellite and radar imagery at times, with a diameter that has\nvaried in size from 30 nmi to the present 20 nmi. The overall\nconvective pattern has also become more symmetrical with\nwell-established outflow present in all quadrants. Satellite\nintensity estimates are T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 kt from\nSAB and UW-CIMSS ADT, and Chris certainly has the satellite\nappearance of being a hurricane. However, the intensity is being\nmaintained at 60 kt for this advisory due to significant cold\nupwelling that has occurred beneath the cyclone when Chris was\nmoving slowly during the previous 48 hours. The colder waters have\nlikely stabilized the boundary layer, which has inhibited stronger\nwinds aloft from mixing down to the surface. The cold upwelling is\nsupported by sea-surface temperature (SST) data from nearby NOAA\nBuoy 41002, which has shown 6 deg F of cooling during the past 48\nhours, and is currently sitting at 76F. An Air Force Reserve\nreconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate Chris this\nafternoon to provide a better intensity estimate.\n\nRecent satellite and radar fixes indicate that Chris is finally\nmoving northeastward at a faster forward speed, and the initial\nmotion estimate is now 050/08 kt. The narrow subtropical ridge to\nthe southeast of the cyclone is getting pushed northward by the\nremnants of Beryl, which has helped to finally nudge Chris toward\nthe northeast. A further increase in forward speed is expected as a\nstrong deep-layer trough digs southeastward along the U.S. east\ncoast, accelerating the cyclone at forward speeds of 25-30 kt by 48\nhours and beyond. Chris is forecast to pass well southeast of Nova\nScotia in a couple of days, and move near or over southeastern\nNewfoundland in about 60 hours. The NHC track guidance remains in\ngood agreement on the evolving steering flow regime, but there\ncontinues to be some pronounced speed differences. The new NHC track\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies close to the\nconsensus models HCCA, FSSE, and TVCN.\n\nMy best estimate, based on the data from Buoy 41002, is that\nsignificant upwelling likely occurred within the 30-kt wind radii\nwhile Chris was nearly stationary. Assuming that that is the case,\nthen Chris will be moving over warmer waters shortly, which should\nallow for an increase in convection to occur and also for winds\naloft to better mix downward to the surface. The vertical wind shear\nis forecast to remain modest at 10-15 kt for the next 24 hours, so\ngradual intensification is expected during that time. By 48 hours,\nChris will have crossed over the north wall of the Gulfstream and be\nmoving over SSTs colder than 20 deg C, which will combine with\nstrong southwesterly wind shear, and cause Chris to rapidly\ntransition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity\nforecast follows the FSSE intensity model through 36 hours, and then\nshows more significant weakening after that, similar to the SHIPS,\nLGEM, and HCCA models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 33.1N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 33.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 35.6N  69.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 38.4N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 42.0N  60.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 48.1N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/1200Z 52.0N  31.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/1200Z 54.0N  18.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Chris","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Chris Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate\nthat Chris has finally attained hurricane status, making it the\nsecond hurricane thus far this season, which is ahead of climatology\nby more than six weeks. The aircraft found 850-mb flight-level winds\nof 88 kt in the southeastern quadrant, along with SFMR winds of\n73-77 kt. Dropsondes in the the same area found equivalent surface\nwinds of 73-74 kt, and the most recent central pressure observed was\n980 mb. Furthermore, satellite intensity estimates are a consensus\nT4.5/77 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, based on a well-defined\n20-nmi-diameter clear eye. These data support a solid 75-kt advisory\nintensity.\n\nThe initial motion is a slightly faster 050/09 kt. Chris is north of\na narrow subtropical ridge, and water vapor imagery also indicates\nthat Chris is beginning to feel the influence of a digging trough\nover the northeastern U.S. and Mid-Atlantic states. The combination\nof these two features should gradually accelerate the hurricane\nnortheastward at a faster forward speed through 96 hours. By the\ntime Chris passes well southeast of Nova Scotia in 36 hours or so,\nthe hurricane will be moving at a forward speed of more than 25 kt.\nOn the new forecast track, Chris is still expected to move near or\nover southeastern Newfoundland in about 48-60 hours. The latest\nmodel guidance has a much larger spread in both cross-track and\nalong-track motions. To smooth out these differences, the new\nforecast track is down the middle of the tighter HCCA, FSSE, and\nTVCN consensus model suite.\n\nNow that Chris has moved away from the cold upwelling region, some\nadditional intensification is forecast for the next 12 hours or so\ndue to 27-28 deg C SSTs beneath the cyclone and the well-established\ncurrent outflow pattern that is expected to persist during that\ntime. Slow weakening should begin shortly after Chris peaks in\nintensity due to the cyclone moving over cooler waters, creating\nsome modest upwelling as a result. By 36 hours, Chris will have\nmoved well north of the Gulfstream and be moving over SSTs colder\nthan 15 deg C. The combination of the much colder water and\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt should induce a\nrapid transition to an extratropical cyclone. The official intensity\nforecast is above the intensity guidance through 12 hours, and then\nshows weakening after that similar to the LGEM and IVCN models.\n\nNow that Chris is moving away from the United States, the\npreviously scheduled aircraft mission for 11/0600 UTC has been\ncanceled.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 33.7N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 34.9N  70.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 37.1N  67.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 40.5N  62.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 44.7N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  13/1800Z 51.0N  41.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  14/1800Z 55.2N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  15/1800Z 59.0N  12.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Chris","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Chris Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018\n\nChris has been rapidly intensifying since the center moved out of\nthe area of upwelled cold water about 18 h ago, likely due to an\ninner core convective ring seen earlier in microwave imagery\nbecoming a fully-developed eyewall as the cyclone encountered warmer\nwater.  Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB at 00Z were\n90 kt and 77 kt, and the CIMSS SATCON technique estimate was 90 kt.\nBased on this and a subsequent increase in organization, the initial\nintensity is increased to a possibly conservative 90 kt.\n\nThe initial motion remains 050/9.  Chris is becoming embedded in\nthe mid-latitude westerlies between the subtropical ridge to the\nsoutheast and a large deep-layer trough over eastern Canada and the\nnortheastern United states.  The combination of these features\nshould cause Chris to accelerate northeastward into the North\nAtlantic through 96 h, passing near southeastern Newfoundland in\nabout 48 h. The new forecast track is a blend of the previous track\nand the HCCA and TVCN consensus models, and it is a little faster\nthan the previous forecast.\n\nThe eye of Chris is about to move over an area of slightly cooler\nwater south of the core of the Gulf Stream, and this will likely\nslow the intensification rate.  Otherwise, conditions appear\nfavorable for intensification for the next 18-24 h, and the\nintensity forecast shows a little more strengthening before Chris\nmoves north of the Gulf Stream.  Extratropical transition should\nbegin after Chris moves north of the Gulf Stream and be complete\nbefore the cyclone passes near southeastern Newfoundland.  After\nthat, the extratropical low should gradually decay as it crosses\nthe North Atlantic.  The new intensity forecast is increased from\nthe previous forecast for the first 36 h based on current trends,\nand it has been lowered from the previous forecast between 72-120 h\nbased on the latest guidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 34.2N  71.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 35.8N  69.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 38.8N  64.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 42.8N  59.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 46.6N  53.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/0000Z 53.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/0000Z 57.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/0000Z 61.5N  10.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Chris","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nHurricane Chris Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018\n \nChris continues to have a very distinct eye, but the surrounding\nconvection is not as strong as a few hours ago. Dvorak T-numbers\nare either steady or lower, so the initial intensity is kept at 90\nkt in this advisory. Chris has the opportunity to strengthen a\nlittle during the next 12 to 18 hours while is moving over the\nGulf Stream or warm waters. After that time, the hurricane will move\nover increasingly cold waters, and it should begin to acquire\nextratropical characteristics as it passes south of Newfoundland.\n \nSatellite fixes indicate that Chris has increased its forward\nspeed, and is now moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 19\nkt. The hurricane is already embedded withing the fast flow ahead of\na large mid-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer\nthe hurricane northeastward over the open Atlantic with additional\nincrease in forward speed. Models are in remarkably good agreement\nand consequently the guidance envelope is quite tight. This\nincreases considerably the confidence in the track forecast.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/0900Z 35.3N  69.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 37.2N  67.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 40.9N  62.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 45.0N  56.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 48.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/0600Z 55.5N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/0600Z 63.0N  15.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Avila\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Chris","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Chris Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 AM AST Wed Jul 11 2018\n\nThe IR signature of Chris has fluctuated substantially this\nmorning.  The eye became obscured by clouds shortly after sunrise,\nand an SSMIS overpass at 1120 UTC indicated that the vortex had\nbecome tilted, with the mid-level eye displaced to the east of the\nlow-level center of circulation.  Since that time, however, the eye\nhas once again become more distinct in visible and IR imagery.\nDvorak estimates from all agencies had decreased markedly at 1200\nUTC but given the improvement of the cloud pattern since then, the\ninitial intensity has been lowered only slightly, to 85 kt.\n\nFor the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will be approaching and\ncrossing the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and no further\nweakening is expected.  In fact it is possible that Chris could even\nbriefly re-intensify, as shown by some of the intensity guidance,\nalthough this is not explicitly shown in the forecast. Once the\nhurricane crosses the northern wall of the Gulf Stream in about 24\nhours, all of the dynamical models indicate that Chris will quickly\nacquire extratropical characteristics and rapidly weaken while its\nwind field becomes more spread out. Given the lower initial\nintensity, the new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower\nthan the previous one for the first 36 hours, but very similar\nthereafter, and is close to a consensus of the global and hurricane\ndynamical models.\n\nAlmost no change has been made to the track forecast.  Chris should\ncontinue accelerating toward the northeast ahead of an approaching\nmid-level trough over the next couple of days.  By 96 hours, all of\nthe global models forecast that Chris will begin to interact with\nanother extratropical low, which should cause Chris to slow down,\nbefore the two lows eventually merge by day 5.  The global\nmodels are still in very good agreement on the track of Chris,\nespecially for the first 72 h of the forecast and confidence\nremains high in the track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 36.4N  67.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 38.7N  64.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 42.7N  59.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 46.9N  53.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  13/1200Z 50.3N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/1200Z 56.8N  26.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/1200Z 62.0N  16.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Chris","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Chris Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018\n\nThe eye of Chris has become a little less distinct and more\ncloud filled during the past few hours, but the overall cloud\npattern remains quite impressive in satellite imagery. The\nrespective wind radii were adjusted outward based on a 1454 UTC\nASCAT-A overpass, which included one 65-kt surface wind vector in\nthe southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered\nslightly to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak intensity estimates of\nT4.5/77 from both TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.2/95 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 050/22 kt. Little change was made\nto the previous advisory track. Chris is now embedded within deep\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of a broad trough that is digging\nsoutheastward along the U.S. Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The\nglobal models are in excellent agreement that the hurricane should\ncontinue to accelerate northeastward for the next 72 hours, passing\nover or near southeastern Newfoundland in 24-36 hours as a strong\nextratropical cyclone. In contrast to several previous model runs,\nthe latest NHC guidance shows very little cross-track spread or\nspeed differences, and is tightly packed about the previous advisory\ntrack. The new forecast track closely follows the previous forecast\nand the consensus track models HCCA, TVCN, and FSSE.\n\nDuring next 6 hours or so, Chris will be passing over a ocean\nthermal ridge consisting of SSTs of more than 28 deg C, which is\nassociated with the Gulf Stream. As a result, little change in\nstrength is expected during that time. However, by 24 hours and\nbeyond, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs colder than 12 deg C\nand encountering southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of\n30 kt, a detrimental combination that will induce rapid weakening\nand also result in transition to an extratropical cyclone. The new\nintensity forecast is a little lower than the various intensity\nmodel forecasts to account for stronger shear and colder water.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 37.8N  65.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 40.6N  61.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 44.9N  56.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  13/0600Z 48.8N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  13/1800Z 51.9N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  14/1800Z 58.4N  22.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  15/1800Z 63.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Chris","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Chris Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 PM AST Wed Jul 11 2018\n\nChris is quickly unraveling, with its eye completely disintegrating\na few hours ago and the convective pattern showing the hallmarks of\nthe onset of extratropical transition.  Earlier microwave data\nactually showed that the hurricane had a concentric eyewall\nstructure, but the mid-level eye was already being stripped away\nfrom the low-level center due to increasing southwesterly shear.\nChris's initial intensity is set at 75 kt based on a blend of\nfinal T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe hurricane is accelerating toward the northeast with an initial\nmotion of 050/25 kt, and the acceleration is expected to continue\nfor the next 48 hours while the cyclone moves ahead of a deep-layer\ntrough located over eastern Canada.  After 48 hours, Chris is\nforecast to slow down to the south of Iceland when it interacts\nwith another deep-layer low.  The track guidance is tightly\nclustered very close to the previous official forecast during\nthe first 72 hours, with only a little more model spread and\ndeviation from the previous forecast at 96 hours.  Therefore, the\nonly change to the updated NHC track forecast is to slow down the\nstorm a little on day 4 while it's located south of Iceland.  Chris\nmay still exist on day 5, but there's too much uncertainty among\nthe models to extend the official forecast at this point.\n\nChris is currently moving over a few warm eddies along the Gulf\nStream, but the hurricane's center will move across the North Wall\nwithin the next 6 hours and head toward much colder waters.\nVertical shear will also be increasing further over the next 24\nhours, and Chris is expected to be fully embedded within a frontal\nzone within 18-24 hours.  The NHC official forecast calls for Chris\nto complete extratropical transition just before the center reaches\nextreme southeastern Newfoundland within 24 hours, and the cyclone's\nintensity should gradually decrease while it moves across the North\nAtlantic.  The intensity forecast is close to the tropical model\nguidance for the first 12-24 hours but then sides closer to the GFS\nand ECMWF guidance during the remainder of the forecast.\n\nChris's wind radii have been adjusted slightly based on a 0034 UTC\nASCAT pass.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 39.6N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 42.6N  59.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 46.9N  52.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  13/1200Z 50.2N  44.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  14/0000Z 53.1N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  15/0000Z 59.6N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  16/0000Z 62.0N  15.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Chris Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n500 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018\n\nDeep convection has decreased considerable, and the cloud pattern is\ntaking the typical shape of cyclones during extratropical transition\nwith the rain shield expanding toward the northwest quadrant. Only a\nsmall area of thunderstorms remain near the center. Dvorak numbers\nfrom TAFB and SAB are decreasing, and assuming that the cyclone has\nweakened since the last ASCAT pass several hours ago, the initial\nintensity is set at 60 kt in this advisory.  Chris will be moving\nover much colder waters, and with the increase in shear, the cyclone\nis forecast to acquire extratropical characteristics as it moves\nvery near the extreme southern portion of Newfoundland later today.\nAfter that time, the post-tropical cyclone should continue toward\nthe northeast and become absorbed by a larger cyclone in about 3 or\n4 days.\n\nChris is now moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 30 kt.\nThe cyclone is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude\nwesterlies, and this flow should continue to steer Chris on this\ngeneral track until it becomes absorbed.  Track models are in\nexcellent agreement in both direction and speed, increasing\nthe confidence in the NHC forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 42.1N  60.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 45.4N  55.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  13/0600Z 49.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  13/1800Z 52.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  14/0600Z 54.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  15/0600Z 60.0N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  16/0600Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Chris","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nPost-Tropical Cyclone Chris Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032018\n1100 AM AST Thu Jul 12 2018\n \nExtratropical transition has been ongoing for the past few hours,\nwith the rain shield continuing to expand and clouds tops warming in\nthe northwestern semicircle. In addition, surface observations close\nto the center now show a sharp temperature gradient of almost 20 deg\nF across the center, which is indicative of the cyclone having\nmerged with a cold frontal system. As a result, Chris has become a\npost-tropical/extratropical cyclone. The intensity of 60 kt is based\non continuity with the previous advisory and earlier ASCAT\nscatterometer passes. Gradual weakening is forecast by all of the\nintensity model guidance, but the cyclone is still expected to\nremain a gale area through 72 hours.\n \nChris has made a slight westward jog, but the latest model guidance\ninsists that the cyclone will start moving back toward the northeast\nor 045 degrees at 30-31 kt. Post-tropical cyclone Chris is forecast\nto remain embedded within the fast mid-latitude westerly flow on the\neast side of a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward over the\nnortheastern United States and southeastern Canada for the next 48\nhours or so. By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to slow down and\nbegin moving northward as it interacts with a larger mid-latitude\nupper-level low. The NHC model guidance remains tightly packed, so\nonly minor adjustments to the previous advisory track were required,\nand mainly in just the first 12 hours. On the forecast track, the\ncenter of Chris is expected to pass over or near the Avalon\nPeninsula of southeastern Newfoundland around 2100-0000 UTC this\nafternoon and evening.\n \nThis is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane\nCenter on this system.  Additional information on this system can be\nfound in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,\nunder AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available\non the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Other\ninformation on Post-Tropical Cyclone Chris can be found in products\nissued by Environment Canada/Canadian Hurricane Centre on the\ninternet at weather.gc.ca/hurricane/.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/1500Z 44.4N  57.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  13/0000Z 47.7N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  13/1200Z 50.7N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  14/0000Z 53.5N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  14/1200Z 56.5N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  15/1200Z 61.6N  18.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-07-14 17:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Beryl Special Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018\n\nThe remnants of Beryl have persisted for the past several days,\nmoving through the Bahamas and into the Atlantic between the\neastern United States and Bermuda.  During the last day or so, the\nremnants have interacted with an upper-level trough, which has\nresulted in the redevelopment of a well-defined circulation and\norganized convection near the center.  Recent scatterometer data\nshows 35 kt winds northeast of the center, so advisories are\nre-initiated on Beryl.  While the strongest winds and convection are\nrelatively close to the center, the upper-level trough is likely\ncontributing baroclinic energy to the system, and thus the\nregenerated Beryl is being called a subtropical cyclone rather than\na tropical cyclone.\n\nThe initial motion is 035/10.  Beryl is in relatively light\nsouthwesterly flow between the subtropical ridge and the\nmid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the cyclone\ngenerally northeastward for the next two to three days.  Some\nincrease in forward speed may occur after 36 h as a mid-latitude\ncyclone approaches from the west.  The forecast track is a blend of\nthe HCCA and TVCN consensus models.\n\nThe forecast track takes Beryl over cold water north of the Gulf\nStream in 24 h or less, and the guidance shows little additional\nintensification during that time.  After that, the system should\ndecay over cold water without any extratropical transition.  The\nintensity forecast calls for the system to maintain a 35 kt\nintensity for 24 hr, followed by weakening and eventual dissipation\njust after 72 h.\n\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1700Z 36.4N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n 12H  15/0000Z 37.3N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n 24H  15/1200Z 39.3N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n 36H  16/0000Z 41.2N  61.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION\n 48H  16/1200Z 43.4N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  17/1200Z 48.0N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018\n\nWhile the overall coverage and intensity of convection\nassociated with Beryl has decreased in the past few hours, the\nremaining convection has become better organized into a curved band.\nThere are also indications that the center may be reforming to the\nnorth in response to this band.  The initial intensity of 35 kt is\nbased on continuity from the previous advisory and a subtropical\nintensity estimate of 35-40 kt from TAFB.  Beryl remains embedded in\nan upper-level trough that is well defined in GOES-16 airmass\nimagery, and thus is still a subtropical cyclone rather than a\ntropical cyclone.\n\nThe initial motion is 035/12, which is somewhat uncertain due to\nthe possible reformation of the center.  Otherwise, there is little\nchange in the forecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  Beryl\nis in relatively light southwesterly flow between the subtropical\nridge and the mid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer\nthe cyclone generally northeastward for the next two to three days.\nThe guidance has shifted a little to the left of that of the\nprevious advisory, and the new forecast track is also nudged in that\ndirection.  The new track is generally a blend of the HCCA and TVCN\nconsensus models.\n\nThe intensity guidance is showing little additional development, and\nthe new intensity forecast will reflect this in keeping the\nintensity at 35 kt for 24 h.  However, the center of Beryl will be\npassing over the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, so it would\nnot surprising if some intensification occurred.  After that, the\nsystem should decay over cold water with little or no extratropical\ntransition.  The new forecast now calls for dissipation before the\n72 h point in agreement with the dynamical models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 37.3N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 38.8N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 40.8N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 43.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 44.9N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 PM AST Sat Jul 14 2018\n\nShear and dry air appear to have taken a toll on Beryl this evening\nas deep convection associated with the system has dissipated.  Beryl\nnow consists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The\ninitial wind speed remains 35 kt for this advisory, which is based\non a ST2.5 classification from TAFB and earlier ASCAT data, but\nthis could be generous.  Beryl will be traversing marginally warm\nwaters of the Gulf Stream during the next 12-18 h, however the\nsystem appears to be ingesting a drier and more stable airmass from\nthe northwest which is likely to prevent strengthening.  After that\ntime, the cyclone will be moving over much cooler water and into\nless favorable thermodynamic conditions, which is likely to cause\nthe system to become a remnant low in about 24 hours.  The updated\nNHC forecast assumes that deep convection will re-develop in with\nthe cyclone overnight, but if that does not occur Beryl could become\na remnant low much sooner.  The global models suggest that the\nremnant low will dissipate southwest of Newfoundland within 72\nhours.\n\nBeryl has moved northward this evening, but the longer-term initial\nmotion estimate is north-northeast or 025/11.  The storm should move\nslowly north-northeastward to northeastward around the western\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic\nduring the next couple of days.  The track guidance remains in good\nagreement on this scenario, but there has been a significant\nreduction in the predicted forward speed of Beryl in the various\ndynamical models which has required an adjustment to the official\nforecast.  The new NHC track is slower than, and to the left of, the\nprevious advisory, but is in good agreement with the TVCA and HCCA\nconsensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 38.1N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 39.6N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 41.1N  62.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  16/1200Z 42.5N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  17/0000Z 44.3N  58.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018\n\nWater vapor imagery indicates that Beryl has become fully entangled\nwith and embedded within an upper-level cold low, causing the small\ncyclone to slow down considerably over the warm waters of the\nGulfstream. Beryl's appearance in satellite imagery consists of a\nsmall donut ring of shallow to moderate convection that fully\nencircles an eye-like feature. Most of the cloud tops in the ring\nare around -15C to -20C with a few overshooting towers of -35C to\n-45C, or about 28,000 to 38,000 ft, in the southeastern quadrant.\nAlthough that doesn't sound very impressive, those cloud heights are\nfairly typical for a subtropical cyclone given the low altitude of\nthe tropopause in the inner core of cold upper-lows at high\nlatitudes. The initial intensity is being maintained at 35 kt based\non the tight ring appearance and a subtropical classification of\nT2.5/35 kt from TAFB.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is slowly northeastward or 050/03 kt.\nNow that Beryl has become embedded within the upper-low, its future\nmotion depends heavily on the motion of the now parent upper-low.\nFor the next 48 hours, the new NHC models guidance shows Beryl and\nthe upper-low moving northeastward toward Newfoundland within the\nmid-latitude westerlies, accompanied by a gradually increasing\nforward speed of about 10-15 kt by 36 and 48 hours. The new NHC\nforecast track is again slower than the previous advisory track, and\nlies between the HCCA and FSSE consensus track forecast models.\n\nThe center of Beryl is moving slowly over North Atlantic Gulfstream\nwaters of about 27.5C and the entire cyclone lies between the\n26-deg-C isotherms, which are only about 60 nmi apart from north to\nsouth. The new forecast track keeps Beryl over these warmer waters a\nlittle longer than previous forecasts, which could result in the\nregeneration of convection a slight delay in Beryl weakening and\neventually degenerating into a remnant low pressure system than what\nis currently forecast. But for now, the new NHC intensity forecast\nmaintains continuity with the previous advisory, and closely follows\na blend of the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN intensity consensus models,\nwhich have Beryl dissipating just before reaching Newfoundland in\nabout 72 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 38.3N  65.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 39.1N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 40.5N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  16/1800Z 42.6N  59.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  17/0600Z 45.0N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 AM AST Sun Jul 15 2018\n\nOverall, Beryl has become less organized since yesterday, with the\ncyclone currently comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds\nwith minimal convection in the southeastern quadrant.  While the\nlow-level center remains over the Gulf Stream, GOES-16 airmass\nimagery indicates that the center is now west of the associated\nupper-level trough and that significant northerly vertical shear is\noccurring. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a subtropical\nintensity estimate from TAFB, and it could be a little generous.\n\nThe storm has drifted east-northeastward during the past 12 h, with\nthe initial motion now 075/3.  A deep-layer mid-latitude trough\nmoving eastward across eastern Canada and the northeastern United\nStates should cause the cyclone to resume a northeastward motion\nby tonight, with a faster northeastward motion expected on Monday\nand Tuesday.  The new forecast track is nudged a little to the east\nof the previous track and lies near the various consensus models.\n\nSince the new forecast track keeps the center over the Gulf Stream\nfor another 12 h, the intensity forecast calls for little change in\nstrength during that time.  After that, a quick decay over cold\nwater should occur, and the new intensity forecast is the same as\nthe previous forecast in calling for Beryl to dissipate completely\nby 72 h.  It should be noted that if the convection does not\nincrease above its current level, the system could weaken and\ndissipate earlier than currently forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 38.1N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 39.0N  63.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 40.8N  61.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  17/0000Z 43.2N  58.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  17/1200Z 45.9N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n500 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018\n\nBeryl is less organized than 24 h ago, with the cyclone currently\ncomprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and occasional\npuffs of convection in the southeastern quadrant.  The low-level\ncenter has also become completely detached from a large-scale cloud\nband farther to the east.  The initial intensity of 35 kt is based\nmainly on earlier scatterometer data, and this data was also used to\nrevise the initial wind radii.\n\nBeryl has been moving slowly eastward most of the day.  However, the\nlast few satellite images suggest a more northward motion is\nbeginning, so the initial motion is an uncertain 075/5.  A broad\ndeep-layer mid-latitude trough moving eastward across eastern Canada\nand the northeastern United States should cause the cyclone to\nturn northeastward with some acceleration tonight, with a faster\nnortheastward motion expected on Monday and Monday night.  The\ntrack guidance has shifted to the east on this advisory, so the new\nforecast track has been adjusted in that direction.  However, the\nnew track lies to the west of the center of the guidance envelope\nand the various consensus models.\n\nThe new forecast track again keeps the center over the Gulf Stream\nfor 12 h, and the intensity forecast maintains the initial intensity\nduring that time.  After that, a quick decay over cold water should\noccur, and the new intensity forecast now calls for Beryl to\ndissipate completely between 36-48 h in agreement with the dynamical\nguidance.  The low-level center is still under strong northwesterly\nvertical shear, and microwave data suggests that dry air has wrapped\naround the circulation.  If these factors prevent the quick\nre-development of convection, the system could dissipate even\nearlier than currently forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 38.2N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 39.2N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 41.3N  59.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  17/0600Z 44.0N  56.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Beryl","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022018\n1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018\n\nDry air and shear has prevented the redevelopment of deep convection\nfor more than 12 hours, and what little convection Beryl had early\nthis morning was not very organized.  As a result, the system has\nbecome post-tropical and this will be the final NHC advisory.  The\ninitial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite intensity\nestimate of 25-30 kt from TAFB.  Beryl is forecast to remain over\nmarginally warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream overnight, but shear and dry\nair are expected to prevent organized deep convection from\nreturning.  After that time, the remnant low will be moving over\nmuch colder waters and a gradual spin down is predicted.  The global\nmodels indicate that the remnant low will dissipate near\nsoutheastern Newfoundland on Tuesday.\n\nBeryl is moving east-northeastward at a faster pace than before or\n065/11.  The cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate over\nthe next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within low- to mid-level\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough.  The\ntrack models are in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast\nis near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.\n\nThis is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional\ninformation on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts\nissued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header\nNFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at\nhttps://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 38.6N  62.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  16/1200Z 39.9N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  17/0000Z 42.6N  57.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  17/1200Z 45.5N  55.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018\n \nA recent ASCAT pass indicated that a very small 30-kt circulation\nhas developed in association with the disturbance that the NHC has\nbeen tracking southwest of Baja California Sur during the past\nseveral days. On this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical\nDepression Eight.  However, the satellite presentation is not very\nwell organized at this time, and Dvorak T-numbers are still low.\nGiven the current environment of low shear and warm ocean, gradual\nstrengthening is anticipated. However, global models indicate that\nthe shear will markedly increase beyond 48 hours, and this wind\npattern should result in weakening. The NHC forecast is a blend of\nHCCA and the simple intensity consensus.\n \nThe depression is moving toward the west or west-northwest at 14 kt\naround the periphery of the strong subtropical ridge. Since the\nridge is forecast to persist, no significant change in the steering\nflow is anticipated. The cyclone should then continue on the same\ntrack for the next several days, although by the end of the\nforecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become a westward\nmoving remnant low. The NHC forecast is very close to the\nmulti-model consensus.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  26/2100Z 13.2N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 13.7N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 14.0N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 17.0N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n$$\nForecaster Avila\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092018\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018\n\nSatellite data indicate that the low pressure system located over\nthe far western portion of the eastern Pacific basin has developed\nsufficient organization to be classified a tropical depression, the\nninth one of the season and second one of the afternoon.  The\ninitial intensity is set to 30 kt.  Although the depression is\nexpected to be over warm SSTs and in a moist environment during the\nnext few days, strong northerly shear should prevent strengthening.\nThe intensity guidance shows little change in strength through the\nforecast period, and most of the global models show the system\nopening into a trough within the next few days.  Based on this\ninformation, the NHC official intensity forecast shows a steady\n30-kt depression through the period, but it would not be surprising\nif the cyclone dissipated sometime in the forecast period.\n\nThe depression is moving to the west at 12 kt steered by the flow\non the south side of a mid-level ridge.  This general motion is\nexpected during the next several days, taking the system into the\ncentral Pacific basin in 24 to 36 hours, and well south of the\nHawaiian Islands in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC track forecast lies near\nthe various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 11.0N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 10.9N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 10.8N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 10.7N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 10.8N 143.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 11.8N 148.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 12.8N 153.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  31/1800Z 13.5N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of the depression features a small area of central\nconvection with cloud tops of -70 to -80C and a larger convective\nband to the west and northwest of the low-level center. The initial\nintensity remains 30 kt based on the previous ASCAT data and the\nlatest Dvorak classification from SAB. The cyclone has an\nopportunity to strengthen during the next 36 hours or so while it\nmoves through an environment of light-to-moderate westerly shear and\nSSTs of 27-28C. After that time the shear is forecast to increase\nand reach 30-40 kt by late in the forecast period. The combination\nof the shear and cooling SSTs should result in weakening. The global\nmodels show the low and mid-level circulations decoupling by 96\nhours, which should result in the cyclone becoming a remnant low.\nThe new NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity\nconsensus.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/14 based on the latest\ngeostationary and microwave satellite fixes. The track forecast\nremains unchanged, as the cyclone will be steered westward to\nwest-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level\nridge centered over the southwestern United States. After the\ncyclone becomes a shallow remnant low late in the period, a westward\nmotion is expected. The latest NHC track forecast is close to the\nprevious one and is a bit south of the multi-model consensus aids\nand near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 13.8N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 14.1N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 14.5N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 15.0N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 15.7N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  31/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092018\n800 PM PDT Thu Jul 26 2018\n\nIt has been difficult to identify the center of the depression on\nvisible imagery since this afternoon, and microwave imagery from the\nSSMI and GMI instruments between 2300 and 0000 UTC suggest that the\nlow-level circulation of the depression has not become any better\norganized. The initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, but Dvorak\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that this could be\ngenerous. Based on an analysis from UW-CIMSS, 20-25 kt of\nnorthwesterly shear is currently affecting the depression, and SHIPS\ndiagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF indicate that the shear will\nincrease over the next 24 hours. None of the intensity guidance\nbrings the cyclone above minimal tropical storm strength, and the\ndynamical models all indicate that it will degenerate into a trough\nof low pressure early next week. The intensity forecast therefore\nkeeps the cyclone as a depression through 96 h, and now shows\ndissipation by day 5. Given the high shear and disorganized nature\nof the depression, it is very possible that dissipation will occur\nsooner than currently forecast.\n\nDue to the uncertainty associated with the initial position of the\ndepression, the initial motion is fairly uncertain but is estimated\nto be 265/13 kt. Little change has been made to the NHC forecast,\nand the depression is still forecast to continue moving generally\nwestward for the next several days, steered by a low- to mid-level\nridge to the north. The models are in good agreement on the track of\nthe depression through dissipation, and the NHC forecast is near the\ncenter of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 10.8N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 10.7N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 10.6N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 10.6N 142.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 10.7N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 11.6N 149.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  31/0000Z 12.5N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern associated with the cyclone has lost organization\nduring the past several hours, with the low-level center now located\nat the northern edge of a smaller area of convection.  Despite the\nragged appearance in satellite imagery, recent ASCAT-A data showed\nan area of 35 kt winds to the northeast of the center.  Based on\nthis, the cyclone has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gilma.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/14.  Gilma should be steered westward to\nwest-northwestward along the southwestern flank of a large mid-level\nridge extending westward from the southwestern United States.  As\nthe cyclone decays to a shallow remnant low late in the period, a\nmore westward motion is expected.  The new track forecast is\nsimilar to, but a little faster than the previous forecast, and it\nis a blend of the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus\naids.\n\nGilma is located just to the east of an upper-level trough, which\nthe large-scale models forecast to move or re-form westward just\nahead of the storm for the next couple of days.  This evolution is\nexpected to keep the cyclone in an area of moderate vertical wind\nshear, but with some upper-level divergence to maintain convection.\nBased on this, the intensity forecast shows a little more\nstrengthening in agreement with the overall trend of the intensity\nguidance.  After 36-48 h, Gilma is likely to move into strong and\ndry northwesterly upper-level flow west of the upper-level trough\naxis, which should lead to weakening and eventual dissipation.  The\nnew intensity forecast now shows dissipation by 120 h in agreement\nwith the dynamical models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 14.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 15.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 15.5N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092018\n200 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018\n\nThe depression is not well organized at this time, with the center\nlikely located between two unimpressive areas of convection.\nMicrowave data also suggest that the circulation is elongated\nnortheast-to-southwest, which is another sign that the cyclone is\nstruggling.  Dvorak classifications haven't changed, so the initial\nwind speed remains 30 kt.  Little change in strength is forecast\ndue to moderate northwesterly shear, with weakening likely in a\ncouple of days due to persistent moderate or strong shear.  The new\nintensity forecast is lower than the previous prediction beyond 36\nhours, and the cyclone is now forecast to become post tropical by 96\nhours. Given the shear and disorganized nature of the depression, it\nremains possible that this forecast is conservative, and that\ndissipation will occur sooner than currently forecast.\n\nSatellite and microwave data indicate the depression has slowed\ndown, now moving westward at about 10 kt.  This general track is\nforecast for the next several days, with the system gaining some\nlatitude in the Central Pacific basin due to the orientation of\nthe subtropical ridge.  The UKMET and ECMWF models are farther\nnorth than the rest of the guidance, possibly due to slight\nbinary interaction with Tropical Storm Gilma.  Overall, the new\nforecast is not too different than the previous one, although\nit has been adjusted to the northeast at long range to account for\nthe models mentioned above.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 10.7N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 10.6N 139.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 10.5N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 10.7N 143.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 11.0N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 11.9N 150.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  31/0600Z 13.0N 155.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gilma Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018\n\nNorthwesterly shear has disrupted the already poorly organized\ncloud pattern associated with Gilma. The center is now exposed and\nlocated on the northwestern edge of the convection, and T-numbers\nare only 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. Earlier ASCAT data supported\ntropical storm strength, however, given that no new ASCAT\ninformation is available, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt in\nthis advisory. Gilma could maintain its current strength until\nstronger westerly shear becomes established over the cyclone. Shear\nand cooler waters will induce weakening, and Gilma is expected to\nbecome a remnant low in 3 days or earlier. Dissipation is\nexpected therafter. The official forecast follows the intensity\nconsensus trend.\n\nGilma is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. The\ncyclone is on the southwest side of a strong subtropical ridge.\nThis steering flow pattern is forecast to persist, so no change in\ntrack is anticipated. The NHC forecast is located between the HFIP\nHCCA model and the simple track consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 14.9N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 15.0N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 15.2N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP092018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Nine-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092018\n800 AM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the circulation of the depression is\nno longer closed and instead now resembles an northeast-southwest\noriented trough.  This system is also well embedded in the\nIntertropical Convergence Zone, an indication that it is not a\ndiscrete cyclone.  Therefore, this system does not qualify as a\ntropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory issued by the\nNational Hurricane Center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 25\nkt, in general agreement with the Dvorak estimates.\n\nThe remnants of the cyclone are moving westward at 11 kt, and the\ntrough is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin later\ntoday.  Future information on this system can be found in Tropical\nWeather Outlooks issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center,\nwhich can be found on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 10.6N 138.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n200 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018\n\nGilma is feeling the effects of northwesterly shear.  During the\npast several hours, the center of the system has been exposed at\ntimes with much of the convective activity being displaced to the\nsoutheast of the center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt\nbased on a very recent ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak estimates.\nThis makes Gilma a tropical depression.  Although Gilma is expected\nto be over relatively warm SSTs during the next couple of days, the\nnorthwesterly shear is forecast to become even more hostile.\nTherefore, continued weakening is anticipated, and Gilma is now\nforecast to become a remnant low by 48 hours when the shear is\nexpected to be in excess of 30 kt.  The remnant low is predicted to\nopen into a trough by day 4 as shown by many of the global models.\n\nThe depression is moving westward at 15 kt steered by the flow on\nthe south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  A west to\nwest-northwest motion at a slower forward speed is expected during\nthe next few days as the weak and increasingly shallow system is\nsteered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is slightly\nsouth of the previous one to come into better agreement with the\nlatest consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 14.7N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 14.8N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 15.3N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 15.8N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  30/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n800 PM PDT Fri Jul 27 2018\n\nThe satellite presentation of Gilma has not changed much over the\npast several hours.  Strong west-northwesterly shear continues to\naffect tropical cyclone, and deep convection is limited to the\nsoutheast quadrant of the otherwise exposed low-level circulation.\nThe initial intensity has been held at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT\ndata, but recent Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\nsuggest this could be generous.\n\nVirtually no change has been made to the track or intensity\nforecasts.  All of the dynamical models indicate that the shear\naffecting Gilma will increase through the next several days, and\nthe cyclone will be moving into a drier environment.  Continued\nweakening is therefore still forecast, in line with all of the\nintensity guidance.  While the NHC forecast currently shows that\nGilma will be a closed low through 72 hours, it is entirely possible\nthat Gilma will dissipate sooner than currently indicated due to\nthe hostile environment.\n\nAs expected, Gilma has slowed slightly and the initial\nmotion estimate is now 280/13 kt.  A continued west to\nwest-northwest heading with a decrease in forward speed is still\nforecast for the next few days while the shallow depression is\nsteered primarily by the low-level flow associated with the\nsubtropical high to the north-northeast.  The NHC forecast remains\nin close agreement with the various track consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 15.0N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 15.7N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 16.2N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-07-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n200 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018\n\nGilma continues to be affected by strong westerly vertical shear,\nwith the low level center remaining exposed to the northwest of an\narea of weakly banded convection.  Satellite intensity estimates\nare in the 25-35 kt range, so the initial intensity remains a\npossibly generous 30 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/11.  The low- to mid-level subtropical\nridge to the north of the cyclone should continue steering the\ncyclone generally westward to west-northwestward for the next three\ndays with some decrease in forward speed.  The new track forecast\nis similar to the previous forecast and lies a little to the north\nof the center of the guidance envelope and the various consensus\nmodels.\n\nThe ongoing shear is due to an upper-level trough just to the west\nand northwest of the tropical cyclone.  The dynamical models suggest\nthat this trough will move westward in close proximity to Gilma,\nwhich will allow the shear to continue.  In addition, the cyclone\nshould be moving into a drier airmass during the next several days.\nThese factors should cause Gilma to weaken and eventually dissipate\nduring the forecast period even though it will stay over warm\nwater.  The new intensity forecast is mostly an update of the\nprevious forecast, and it now calls for Gilma to decay to a remnant\nlow by 36 h and dissipate completely after 72 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 15.1N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 15.4N 133.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 16.0N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/0600Z 16.4N 139.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/0600Z 16.5N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-07-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n800 AM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018\n\nDespite being in an environment of strong westerly shear, Gilma is\nmaintaining its status as a tropical cyclone.  Deep convection has\nbeen persisting on the eastern side of the system, and this\nactivity has even moved a little closer to the center, aided by\nupper-level diffluence.  The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt,\nin agreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB\nand SAB.  This intensity estimate is a little lower than the 2.5/35\nkt ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\n\nWesterly shear of about 30 kt is likely to continue during the\nnext few days, and the global models indicate that the upper-level\nflow should become less diffluent as Gilma approaches the Central\nPacific basin.  These hostile winds aloft combined with cooler\nSSTs and a more stable air mass should cause Gilma to gradually\nweaken during the next few days.  The NHC forecast continues to show\nGilma becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and degenerating into\na trough by day 4, following the trend in the model guidance.\n\nThe depression is moving westward at 10 kt steered by the flow on\nthe south side of a mid-level ridge.  A west to west-northwest\nmotion is expected during the next few days as the increasingly\nshallow system moves within the low- to mid-level flow.  The NHC\ntrack forecast is a little south of the previous one to come\ninto better agreement with the latest consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 15.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 15.4N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 15.7N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/1200Z 15.4N 144.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-07-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n200 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018\n\nIncreasing westerly shear is taking its toll on Gilma.  Deep\nconvection that has been persisting on the eastern side of the\nsystem has become farther separated from the center, with an exposed\nlow-level swirl centered more than 75 n mi from the edge of\nthe convection.  Although the system appears to be a little weaker\nthan earlier today, there is no scatterometer data to confirm that.\nTherefore, the initial wind speed has been held at 30 kt, in\nagreement with the Dvorak classifications of 2.0/30 kt from both\nTAFB and SAB.\n\nWesterly shear of about 30 to 35 kt is expected to continue during\nthe next few days, and the global models indicate that the\nupper-level flow should become less diffluent as Gilma passes west\nof the axis of an upper-level trough tonight.  The combination of\nthese hostile winds aloft, cooler SSTs, and a more stable air mass\nshould cause Gilma to gradually weaken, and the NHC forecast\nnow shows Gilma becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours and\ndegenerating into a trough by day 4.  Gilma could become a remnant\nlow even sooner than currently forecast, as the unfavorable\nupper-level flow to the west of the upper trough axis could\ncompletely shear off the deep convection from the center.\n\nThe depression made a jog to the northwest during the day today,\nbut it is expected to resume a west to west-northwestward motion\nat around 10 kt through tonight, steered by mid-level ridging\nto the north.  Thereafter, as the system becomes increasingly\nshallow, it should turn to the west, steered by low-level ridging to\nits northwest. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous\nforecast, and it is close to the clustering of the consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 15.8N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 16.3N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/0600Z 16.3N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1800Z 16.1N 141.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/1800Z 15.7N 145.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-07-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n800 PM PDT Sat Jul 28 2018\n\nGilma's structure has not changed much over the past six hours.\nDeep convection remains limited to small, but frequent, bursts just\neast of the depression's exposed low-level center.  The initial\nintensity has been held at 30 kt, based primarily on continuity, but\nthis is also supported by the most recent Dvorak classification from\nTAFB.  No change has been made to the official intensity forecast.\nThe wind shear, as measured in SHIPS diagnostic data from the GFS\nand ECMWF, is already over 30 kt and is forecast to continue\nincreasing over the next day or two.  In addition, the tropical\ncyclone will be moving through a progressively drier environment\nduring the next couple of days, which should also contribute to the\nsuppression of deep convection.  Gilma is therefore still forecast\nto become a remnant low tomorrow, and then dissipate entirely by\nearly next week.\n\nThe depression is moving a little quicker than previously\nanticipated, and the initial motion estimate is 285/12.  Aside from\nthe faster initial speed, there is no change to the reasoning\nbehind the track forecast.  Gilma is still expected to turn back\ntoward the west and slow its forward speed for the next\ncouple of days while being steered primarily by the low-level flow\nassociated with the subtropical ridge to the north.  The NHC track\nforecast is very close to the various consensus models, and minimal\nchanges were made from the previous advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 16.1N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 16.3N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 16.4N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/1200Z 16.3N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/0000Z 16.1N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-07-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n200 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018\n\nGilma continues to generate convection to the east of the exposed\nlow-level center despite the ongoing 30 kt or more of westerly\nvertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates are in the 30-40\nkt range, and the initial intensity will be held at 30 kt based on\nthese data and the unchanged organization since the last advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is now 280/13.  Gilma is expected to move\nwestward and eventually south of westward during the next 2-3 days\nin the low-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge to the\nnorth.  There has been a slight southward shift of the guidance\nsince the last advisory, and the forecast track is thus nudged a\nlittle southward.  The new track continues to lie close to the\nvarious consensus models.\n\nAn upper-level trough located over the cyclone has been providing\nsupport for the central convection to persist despite the shear.\nThe large-scale models forecast that Gilma will move west of the\ntrough axis during the next 12-24 h, which will expose the tropical\ncyclone to 40-50 kt northwesterly upper-level winds and an\nenvironment of upper-level convergence.  These developments should\nbring an end to the central convection and cause Gilma to decay to\na remnant low.  The remnants of the cyclone should weaken to a\ntrough between 48-72 h as indicated by the large-scale models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 16.1N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 16.1N 140.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-07-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Gilma Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018\n\nGilma is on its way in becoming a remnant low.  Very strong\nwest-northwesterly shear has pushed all of the associated convection\nwell away from the center, leaving a completely exposed low-level\nswirl.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a\nblend of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Now\nthat Gilma is located to the west of an upper-level trough axis,\nstrong west-northwesterly shear is expected to continue.  These\nhostile winds aloft, plus marginal SSTs and dry air, should cause\nGilma to become a remnant low later today and ultimately degenerate\ninto a trough in 2 to 3 days.\n\nThe depression is moving westward at 12 kt, steered by the flow on\nthe south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  This general motion\nwith a slight decrease in forward speed is expected until the\nsystem dissipates.  Little change was made to the previous NHC\ntrack forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 15.9N 138.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  30/1200Z 15.9N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  31/0000Z 15.7N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/1200Z 15.5N 147.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Gilma","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-07-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP082018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082018\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018\n\nGilma has lacked organized deep convection near the center for at\nleast 12 hours now.  Although there has been a cluster of\nthunderstorms lingering about 90 n mi southeast of the exposed\ncenter, this convection has been pulling away from the system and\nlacks sufficient organization necessary for a tropical cyclone.\nTherefore, this is the last advisory issued by the National\nHurricane Center on Gilma.  Very strong west-northwesterly shear is\nexpected to continue during the next few days.  These hostile winds\ncombined with marginal SSTs and dry air should cause the remnant low\nto degenerate into a trough in 36 to 48 hours.\n\nThe remnant low is moving westward at 13 kt steered by the low-level\nflow on the south side of a ridge, and it should cross into the\nCentral Pacific basin shortly.  This general motion is expected to\ncontinue until the system dissipates.\n\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttps://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 16.2N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  30/0600Z 16.2N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  30/1800Z 16.1N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  31/0600Z 15.9N 146.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP102018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102018\n200 PM PDT Tue Jul 31 2018\n\nThe broad low pressure system and area of disturbed weather that the\nNHC has been tracking for the past several days has finally become\nwell-defined enough and has acquired sufficient organized deep\nconvection near the center to be classified as a tropical\ndepression. The low-level center is estimated to be just inside the\nsoutheastern edge of the figure-6 cloud mass based on conventional\nand microwave satellite fix data. The initial intensity estimate of\n30 kt is based on Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt\nfrom TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, along with uncontaminated 30-kt\nwinds in a 1634 UTC Scatsat-1 scatterometer pass.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/11 kt. A\ndeep-layer ridge to the north of the depression should keep the\ntropical cyclone moving toward the west-northwest for the next 48\nhours or so, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter due to\nthe ridge building slightly southward on days 3-5. The NHC track\nforecast closely follows a blend of the consensus models TVCN and\nHCCA since this is the first forecast on this system.\n\nAlthough the comma-shaped cloud pattern is suggestive of a slightly\nstronger system, microwave imagery and the Scatsat-1 pass indicate\nthat the circulation envelope is elongated northeast-to-southwest,\nand that westerly winds likely only extend about 30 n mi to the\nsouth of the center. Due to the cyclone's irregular shape, the peak\nwinds are being held lower than the Dvorak T2.5 data-T numbers.\nVisible satellite imagery shows the tops of shallow convection in\nthe eastern semicircle blowing off toward the west, which is\nindicative of modest mid-level shear undercutting the favorable\nhigh-level cirrus outflow layer. This mid-level flow is also likely\nproducing some intrusions of dry air, a negative condition that\nshould act to inhibit inner-core convective development in the short\nterm. These aforementioned unfavorable environmental conditions, in\nconjunction with the irregular shape of the cyclone's circulation,\nshould result in only slow strengthening for the next 48 hours or\nso, despite the very favorable deep-layer, low vertical wind shear\nenvironment. In the 48-72 h period, both the GFS and ECMWF models\nare forecasting the shear to increase to near 15 kt, which should\nact to maintain only slow development. By days 4 and 5, the shear is\nforecast to abate, and the cyclone is forecast to become a hurricane\nby 120 hours. The intensity forecast follows the trend of the HCCA\nand IVCN intensity consensus models, but is slightly higher due to\nthe HMON model showing immediate weakening, which is pulling down\nthe consensus intensity forecasts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 13.1N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 13.6N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 13.8N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 14.0N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 13.8N 128.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 13.7N 132.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 13.6N 136.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-05-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018\n200 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018\n\nThe area of disturbed weather that NHC has been monitoring during\nthe past couple of days has developed a well-defined surface\ncirculation and enough convection to be classified as a tropical\ndepression. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are\n2.0 on the Dvorak scale, yielding an initial intensity of 30 kt. The\ndepression is embedded within an unfavorable upper-level wind\nenvironment, and these winds are forecast to increase further. On\nthis basis, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to have a\nshort life, and become a remnant low in 24 hours or sooner.\n\nSince the depression just formed, the initial motion is uncertain\nand appears to be west-northwestward or 295 degrees at about 5\nknots. Since the steering currents are expected to remain light and\nnot change much, only a slight turn toward the northwest around a\nweak subtropical ridge is anticipated.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 12.4N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 12.8N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 13.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  12/0600Z 14.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-05-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018\n800 PM PDT Thu May 10 2018\n\nTropical Depression One-E continues to maintain a cluster of strong\nconvection to the northeast of the center even though it is\nencountering 25-40 kt of west-southwesterly vertical wind shear.\nVarious subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range\nfrom 25-35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The\ncontinued convection is possibly being aided by a weak upper-level\ntrough just west of the depression. The dynamical models forecast\nthis trough to move east of the depression in 24 h or less, exposing\nthe cyclone to even stronger shear.  Based on this, the intensity\nforecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in calling for\nthe system to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area in less\nthan 24 h.  One small change from the previous forecast is to keep\nthe system an extra 12 h as a remnant low in agreement with the\ndynamical model guidance.\n\nThe initial motion is 295/8.  Through its lifetime, the cyclone\nshould move generally west-northwestward to northwestward around the\nwestern end of a weak subtropical ridge with a gradual decrease in\nforward speed.  The new forecast track is similar to the previous\ntrack and lies a little to the east of the consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 12.7N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 13.1N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 13.7N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  12/1200Z 14.4N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/0000Z 14.9N 129.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-05-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018\n200 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018\n\nWest-southwesterly vertical shear has increased to 35-45 kt over the\ndepression, which has allowed the center to run out ahead of the\nmain cluster of deep convection during the past few hours.  Despite\nthe depression's deteriorating structure, recent ASCAT data\nconfirmed that the maximum winds remain near 30 kt.  Since the shear\nis forecast to strengthen further, it will become increasingly more\ndifficult for the depression to sustain organized deep convection\nnear its center, and the system is likely to degenerate into a\nremnant low by 24 hours.  The remnant low should then dissipate in\nabout 3 days.\n\nThe depression has been moving due westward during the past few\nhours, but the longer-term initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.\nThe cyclone is approaching a low- to mid-level trough to its\nnorthwest, and it is expected to turn northwestward and slow down\nduring the next couple of days.  The updated NHC forecast track has\nbeen adjusted slightly westward from the previous one to account for\nthe recent short-term motion and a general westward shift in the\nguidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 12.6N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 12.9N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  12/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-05-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018\n800 AM PDT Fri May 11 2018\n \nThe depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds located to\nthe west of the deep convection, which has been pulsing for the past\nseveral hours. At this time, the low-level center is moving away\nfrom the remaining thunderstorm activity. Satellite intensity\nestimates have not changed, and the winds are still estimated at 30\nkt. Belligerently unfavorable westerly shear of about 45 kt is\nforecast to affect the depression, and with such an environment, I\nhave no option but to forecast that the cyclone will degenerate into\na remnant low within the next 12 hours or so.\n \nSatellite fixes suggest that the depression in moving toward the\nwest or 280 degrees at about 4 kt.  The depression or its remnants\nwill continue to move slowly, and will likely turn toward the\nnorthwest and north embedded within light steering currents. This\nis the solution provided by the track guidance. However, if the\nsystem opens up into a trough sooner, it is more reasonable to\nexpected a westward drift instead.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  11/1500Z 12.7N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  12/1200Z 13.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0000Z 14.0N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1200Z 14.5N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Avila\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-05-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018\n200 PM PDT Fri May 11 2018\n\nThe prevailing strong westerly wind shear removed all the convection\nfrom the depression, which now consists of a tight swirl of low\nclouds. Since the swirl is becoming less defined on satellite, the\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, with some possible\nhigher gusts. Isolated and intermittent bursts of convection could\nstill occur, but given the hostile environment, the NHC forecast\ncalls for the depression to become a remnant low tonight.\nNone the intensity guidance suggest reintensification of this\nsystem.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the west-northwest at about 3 kt\nembedded within a light steering flow. This slow general motion\nis expected to continue until dissipation.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 12.8N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 13.2N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  12/1800Z 14.0N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"One-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-05-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone One-E Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012018\n800 PM PDT Fri May 11 2018\n\nThe depression has degenerated to a remnant low pressure area due to\nthe lack of organized convection during the past 12 h and ongoing\n40 kt of westerly shear.  Continued weakening of the system is\nexpected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate completely\nafter 24 h.  The low is expected to move slowly northwestward until\ndissipation.\n\nThis is the last advisory on this system issued by the National\nHurricane Center.  For additional information on the remnant low\nplease see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\nService...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 12.9N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  12/1200Z 13.3N 130.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  13/0000Z 13.9N 130.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-05-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1000 AM CDT Fri May 25 2018\n\nThe broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking for\nthe past several days over the Yucatan Peninsula has finally moved\noffshore over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea.\nAlthough the system possesses multiple low-level circulations, the\noverall larger circulation has improved since yesterday. Given that\nthe system has been interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,\nthe strongly sheared low has been designated a subtropical storm.\nThe initial intensity is based on buoy and ship observations of\n30-35 kt. Ship 3ETA7 located just northeast of the center at 1100Z\nreported 45-kt winds at 50 meters elevation. Those winds equate to\n35-40 kt at 10 meters elevation. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane\nHunter Aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later this\nafternoon and provide more information on the storm's structure and\nintensity.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/05 kt. The broad\ninner-core wind field and multiple swirls makes the short-term\nmotion forecast a little tricky. However, a large subtropical ridge\nto the east should generally induce a slow north to north-\nnortheastward motion for the next 24 hours or so. After that, the\nridge across the western Atlantic and Florida, along with a\nmid/upper-level low forecast to develop over the central Gulf of\nMexico, should result in a faster northward motion at 36-48 hours,\nfollowed by a gradual turn toward the northwest around the\nnorthern fringe of the aforementioned mid/upper-level low. By 96\nhours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down significantly as it\nnears the north-central Gulf Coast due to a large weakness in the\nsubtropical ridge forecast to develop over the Deep South. The\nofficial forecast track closely follows the consensus models TVCN\nand HCCA.\n\nGiven the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind\nshear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual\nintensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone\nis forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into\nan upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional\nstrengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will\nremain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air\nbefore landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected\nto produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern\nYucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the\nFlorida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across\nthe central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States\nlater this weekend and early next week when Alberto is expected to\nslow down after it moves inland.\n\n2. Alberto could bring tropical storm conditions and storm surge to\nportions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast later this weekend\nand early next week, although it is too soon to specify the exact\nlocation and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas\nshould monitor the progress of Alberto, as tropical storm and storm\nsurge watches may be required later today or tonight.\n\n3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions\nof the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread\nalong the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 19.7N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 20.5N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 22.0N  86.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 24.1N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 26.7N  86.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 29.3N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  29/1200Z 31.0N  89.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  30/1200Z 33.6N  88.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-05-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n400 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018\n\nThe inner-core low-level wind field of Alberto has changed little\nsince the previous advisory based on recent data from an Air Force\nReserve reconnaissance aircraft, along with land and ship\nobservations. However, the convective structure of the cyclone has\ndegraded over the past several hours due a pronounced intrusion of\ndry mid-/upper-level air and the cloud pattern continues to exhibit\nthe structure of a subtropical cyclone. The lowest pressure measured\nthus far by the aircraft has been 1006 mb. The initial position is a\nlittle north of the recon position of a pronounced swirl due to the\nbroad overall nature of the low-level circulation.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt, but this is considered to\nbe a short-term motion. A gradual turn toward the north should begin\nlater tonight due to a strong ridge located to the east across the\nGreater Antilles. A steadier northward motion is forecast to occur\nby Saturday evening and continue into Sunday as a sharp\nmid/upper-level trough digging southward into the central Gulf of\nMexico combines with southerly flow around the western portion of a\nlarge subtropical ridge to produce deep-layer southerly flow across\nAlberto. By 48 hours and continuing through 72 hours, the developing\nmid/upper-level low over the central Gulf should cause the cyclone\nto turn northwestward and accelerate until it nears the Gulf Coast\nby Monday night. After that, steering currents are forecast to\ncollapse as a broad weakness develops in the subtropical ridge axis\nlocated along the Gulf coast. Slow but steady recurvature into the\nwesterlies across the Deep South is expected to begin by 96-120 h.\nThe new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory,\nand closely follows the consensus models TVCN and HCCA, and the\nFlorida State Superensemble (FSSE) model.\n\nThe broad nature of the inner-core wind field, along with strong\nwesterly wind shear in excess of 20 kt is forecast to continue for\nthe next 24 hours. The latest model runs actually decrease the shear\nsooner than previously forecast, but the ragged nature of the wind\nfield should prevent any significant intensification until after 48\nhours. As a result, only slow but steady strengthening is expected\nfor the next 3 days, and Alberto could peak around 60 kt around 60\nhours when the storm will be in a low wind shear regime and\nover SSTs greater than 28 deg C. However, proximity to dry mid-\nlevel air around landfall could hinder any additional strengthening,\nand the NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the previous\nadvisory, closely following a blend of the HCCA and ICON consensus\nmodels and the FSSE model.\n\nThe new NHC forecast necessitates the issuance of tropical storm\nand storm surge watches for portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast at\nthis time. Note that if the intensity forecast increases with later\nadvisories, a hurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the\nGulf Coast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected\nto produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeaster\nYucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the\nFlorida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across\nthe central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United\nStates later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is\nexpected to slow down after it moves inland.\n\n2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are\npossible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast\nbeginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of\nAlberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches have\nbeen issued for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch\nareas are encouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast\ntrack of Alberto and should follow any guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions\nof the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread\nalong the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 19.4N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 20.7N  86.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 22.5N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 24.8N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 26.8N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 72H  28/1800Z 29.0N  87.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 96H  29/1800Z 31.7N  88.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  30/1800Z 35.2N  87.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-05-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1000 PM CDT Fri May 25 2018\n\nSatellite imagery, earlier aircraft data, and surface observations\nindicate that Alberto is rather disorganized.  A prominent mid-level\ncenter is near the western tip of Cuba, with the convection somewhat\norganized around it.  However, the low-level center is about 170 n\nmi south-southwest of the mid-level center. There are no recent\nobservations of gale-force winds, so the initial intensity will\nremain an uncertain 35 kt.  An upper-level trough just to the west\nand northwest of the cyclone is advecting cool and dry air into\nAlberto, and thus the system remains a subtropical cyclone at this\ntime.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 090/4.  Alberto should\nturn northward during the next 12 h or so in response to the\nnearby upper-level trough, with this motion continuing through\nabout 36 h.  After that, a north-northwestward motion is likely as\nthe aforementioned trough becomes a closed low over the central\nGulf of Mexico and Alberto moves around the northeast side.  This\nevolution should cause Alberto to move through the eastern Gulf of\nMexico during the next 2-3 days, and then make landfall on the\nnorthern Gulf Coast between 72-96 h.  After landfall, Alberto should\ncontinue northward through the southeastern United States.  The new\nforecast track is nudged a bit to the east of the previous track\nduring the first 36 h based on the initial position, and it lies\njust to the west of the consensus models.  One uncertainty in the\ntrack forecast is the possibility that the center could re-form to\nthe north, which at the least could change the timing of the\nforecast track.\n\nThe dynamical models forecast Alberto to reach an area of stronger\nupper-level divergence in about 24 h, with the models agreeing on\nmore significant development starting about that time.  The\nintensity forecast shows a slower development rate for the first 24\nh than the previous forecast, then shows a faster development to\nthe 55-kt peak intensity of the previous forecast.  After landfall,\nAlberto should quickly weaken over land.  The new intensity forecast\nis near the intensity consensus and the SHIPS model.\n\nSome of the intensity guidance suggests that Alberto could become a\nhurricane before landfall.  If the guidance trends stronger, a\nhurricane watch could be needed for a portion of the Gulf Coast on\nSaturday.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected\nto produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the northeastern\nYucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, southern Florida and the\nFlorida Keys. Rainfall and flooding potential will increase across\nthe central U.S. Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United\nStates later this weekend and early next week when Alberto is\nexpected to slow down after it moves inland.\n\n2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are\npossible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast\nbeginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of\nAlberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in\neffect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are\nencouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of\nAlberto and should follow any guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions\nof the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread\nalong the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later this weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 19.4N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 20.7N  85.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 22.9N  85.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 25.4N  85.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 27.0N  86.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 72H  29/0000Z 29.5N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 96H  30/0000Z 32.5N  88.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/0000Z 36.5N  85.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-05-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n400 AM CDT Sat May 26 2018\n\nAlberto is not very well organized this morning.  Satellite images\nindicate that the low-level center is located between widespread\nshowers and thunderstorms well to its northeast and patches of deep\nconvection to its south and east.  The struggling cyclone continues\nto battle westerly shear and dry air.  A recent ASCAT pass indicated\nthat winds near the center were not particularly strong. The initial\nintensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt pending a sampling of\nthe circulation farther east by an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft\nin a few hours.  Alberto remains subtropical given its sprawling\nstructure and involvement with an upper-level trough.\n\nThe subtropical storm has now turned north-northeastward at an\nestimated speed of 6 kt.  This general motion with a increase in\nforward speed is expected throughout the day today, taking the\ncenter of Alberto through the Yucatan Channel.  A turn to the\nnorthwest is forecast on Sunday as the storm rotates around a\ndeveloping mid- to upper-level low in the central Gulf of Mexico.\nAlberto is predicted to be very near the northern Gulf Coast in\nabout 72 hours, and should then turn northward and northeastward\nwhen it moves inland over the eastern U.S.  The models are in\nfairly good agreement this cycle, but they have trended a bit faster\nfrom previous runs.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted\naccordingly, and lies fairly close to the latest consensus aids.\n\nOnly slow strengthening is expected today due to the broad nature\nof the system and continued influences of westerly shear and dry\nair.  There is an opportunity for more significant strengthening\ntonight and Sunday when the shear is expected to lessen and\nAlberto moves into a region of upper-level diffluence while it\nremains over warm SSTs.  The models also suggest that Alberto will\nlikely make a transition to a tropical storm in about 36 hours, and\nthat is reflected in the official forecast below.  The official\nintensity forecast is fairly similar to the previous one, and is in\nline with the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nThe HMON model is now the only intensity guidance that makes\nAlberto a hurricane before it reaches the coast.  Although a\nhurricane watch could still be required for a portion of the Gulf\nCoast later today, the recent intensity guidance trends suggest\nthat this possibility is decreasing.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected\nto produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,\nsouthern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding\npotential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region\nand over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday.\n\n2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are\npossible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast\nbeginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of\nAlberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in\neffect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are\nencouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of\nAlberto and should follow any guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions\nof the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread\nalong the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and\ntonight.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 19.9N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 21.6N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 24.3N  85.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 26.2N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 48H  28/0600Z 27.5N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 72H  29/0600Z 30.4N  87.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 96H  30/0600Z 33.3N  88.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/0600Z 38.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-05-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1100 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018\n\nThere has been an increase in convection to the east and southeast\nof the center of Alberto this morning, however, the overall\norganization of the system has not changed much. Visible satellite\nimagery and recent reconnaissance aircraft data suggest that the\ncirculation is somewhat elongated and a new low-level center could\nbe forming just northwest of the western tip of Cuba.  As suggested\nby the global models there could be several re-formations of or a\ndiscontinuity in the track of the low-level center today. Although\nthere have been no recent observations to support the 35-kt\nintensity, the intensity is held at that value since the aircraft\nhas not sampled the area well east of the center and due to the\noverall increase in convection.\n\nA shortwave trough dropping southeastward over the northwestern Gulf\nof Mexico is expected to sharpen the larger negatively tilted trough\nover the eastern Gulf, which is expected to cause the cyclone to\ndeepen during the next 24 to 36 hours.  This trend is consistent\nwith the global model guidance which unanimously strengthen Alberto\nthrough Sunday.  After that time, Alberto is expected to be\nco-located with the upper-level low which should result in some\ndecrease in shear and a possible transition to a more tropical\ncyclone-like structure.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady\nstrengthening, but only the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance brings\nAlberto near hurricane strength before landfall. Steady weakening\nshould occur after the center moves inland.\n\nAlberto is moving northward to north-northeastward at about 9 kt.\nThe cyclone should continue on this general heading today, but it\nis expected to turn north-northwestward and slow down on Sunday and\nSunday night as it interacts with the mid- to upper-level\ntrough/low over the Gulf.  The track guidance has shifted slightly\neastward this cycle and the NHC forecast has been adjusted\naccordingly.  The new NHC track is near a blend of the ECMWF and GFS\nmodels, but it is not as far east as the UKMET or the TVCA\nmulti-model consensus.  The eastward adjustment in the track\nforecast has required the issuance of a tropical storm watch for a\nportion of the west coast of Florida and an eastward nudge of the\nwatch along the coast of the Florida panhandle.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected\nto produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,\nsouthern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding\npotential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region\nand over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday\nand will continue into next week.\n\n2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are\npossible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast\nbeginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of\nAlberto's center, and tropical storm and storm surge watches are in\neffect for portions of these areas. Residents in the watch areas are\nencouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of\nAlberto and should follow any guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions are affecting portions\nof the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba and will likely spread\nalong the eastern and central U.S. Gulf Coast later today and\ntonight.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 21.6N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 23.8N  84.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 26.0N  85.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 27.4N  86.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 48H  28/1200Z 28.7N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 72H  29/1200Z 31.6N  87.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  30/1200Z 35.6N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/1200Z 39.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-05-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n400 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018\n\nBefore departing the storm, the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft flew near the low-level cloud swirl that became apparent\nin visible satellite imagery over the southeastern Gulf of\nMexico late this morning. Data from the plane indicate that the\ncenter had reformed in that location and that the pressure had\nfallen to 999 mb.  The aircraft did not sample the area to the east\nof the new center, but based on recent satellite classifications and\nsurface observations the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe primary mechanism for intensification appears to be a shortwave\ntrough moving southeastward into the larger negatively tilted trough\nover the eastern Gulf, which should cause a cutoff low to form\nduring the next 24 hours.  This is expected to result in deepening\nof Alberto while it moves generally northward over the Gulf of\nMexico on Sunday and Sunday night. The shear is forecast to\ndecrease as Alberto become co-located with the upper-level low and\nthe system could transition to a more tropical cyclone-like\nstructure before landfall.  The NHC intensity forecast once again\ncalls for steady strengthening through 36 h, but shows little\nstrengthening after that time due to the possibility of dry air\nintrusion.\n\nThe system has moved generally northward during the past 24 hours,\nhowever, the reformation of the center today makes the initial\nmotion estimate more uncertain than normal. Alberto should move\nnorthward to north-northeastward tonight, and then turn\nnorth-northwestward and decelerate on Sunday and Sunday night as\nit moves around the eastern side of the trough/cutoff low.  The\ndynamical models remain in good agreement on this scenario but\nhave shifted eastward once again. The interpolated guidance models\nlie a bit west of the model fields due to the more northwestward\n1800 UTC initial position of Alberto.  As a result, the NHC track is\nalong the eastern edge of the guidance envelope as a compromise\nbetween the ECMWF/GFS model fields and trackers.\n\nThe new NHC track forecast has required the issuance of a\nTropical Storm Warning for a portion of the west coast of Florida\nand a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the northern Gulf\nCoast.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected\nto produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,\nsouthern Florida and the Florida Keys. Rainfall and flooding\npotential will increase across the central U.S. Gulf Coast region\nand over much of the southeastern United States beginning Sunday\nand will continue into next week.\n\n2. Tropical-storm-force winds and hazardous storm surge are\npossible along portions of the central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast\nbeginning on Sunday, including areas well east of the track of\nAlberto's center. Residents in the warning and watch areas are\nencouraged not to focus on the details of the forecast track of\nAlberto and should follow any guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread\nnorthward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 23.3N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 25.4N  84.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 27.5N  85.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 28.9N  86.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 48H  28/1800Z 30.0N  87.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 72H  29/1800Z 33.6N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  30/1800Z 38.3N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/1800Z 42.4N  83.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-05-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   7...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1100 PM EDT Sat May 26 2018\n\nCorrected typo in key message 3\n\nDuring the past few hours, a burst of convection has formed just\nnorth of the low-level center of Alberto, which has caused the\ncenter to reform somewhat to the northeast of the previous position.\nDespite an overall increase in organization, however, reports from\nan Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are at best\nambiguous on whether the storm has strengthened.  The maximum\nflight-level winds at 925 mb were 45 kt, which would support 30-35\nkt at the surface.  The maximum SFMR winds outside of the\nconvective burst were 35-37 kt, but since these were higher than\nthe associated flight-level winds it is unclear how reliable they\nwere.  In the convection, there were SFMR winds up to near 60 kt\nwhich may be due to downbursts and thus are unrepresentative of the\nstrength of the storm.  Finally, the central pressure has not fallen\nsince the previous mission and is near 1001 mb.  The initial\nintensity will remain 35 kt, but this could be conservative.\n\nIn the next 24 h, Alberto should intensify as a subtropical storm\ndue to the influence of a negative-tilt upper-level trough just\nwest of the cyclone.  After that time, the trough is forecast to\nbecome a cutoff upper-level low, with the center of Alberto near or\njust north of the low in an area of lighter shear.  This evolution\nshould allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core and become\nmore symmetric, and this in turn should lead to Alberto\ntransitioning from a subtropical to a tropical storm by 36-48 h.\nThere is little intensity guidance that makes Alberto a hurricane\nbefore landfall, so the new intensity forecast keeps the same 55 kt\npeak and landfall intensities as the previous forecast.  After\nlandfall on the northern Gulf Coast, Alberto should steadily weaken\nover land through the remainder of the forecast period.\n\nFor the next 12 h or so, Alberto should move generally northward,\nalthough some additional eastward reformation of the center remains\npossible.  From 12-48 h, the cyclone should move\nnorth-northwestward as it merges with the upper-level low.  This\nshould be followed by a northward motion across the southeastern\nUnited States from 48-96 h and a subsequent recurvature into the\nwesterlies.  The forecast guidance is in good agreement, and the\nnew forecast track is nudged just a little to the east of the\nprevious track.  On the current forecast track, Alberto would make\nlandfall near the 48 h point.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Regardless of its exact track and intensity, Alberto is expected\nto produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over western Cuba,\nsouthern Florida and the Florida Keys. Heavy rainfall and flooding\npotential will expand to include much of the central U.S. Gulf Coast\nregion and portions of the southeastern United States beginning\nSunday and will continue into next week.\n\n2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central\nand eastern Gulf Coast beginning on Sunday, including areas well\neast of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge\nwatch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their\nlocal government officials.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm\nwarning area along the Florida west coast on Sunday and within the\nwarning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning Sunday night.\n\n4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread\nnorthward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 23.9N  84.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 25.9N  84.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 27.7N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 28.9N  86.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 48H  29/0000Z 30.4N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 72H  30/0000Z 34.5N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  31/0000Z 39.0N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n120H  01/0000Z 42.5N  82.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-05-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n500 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018\n\nAlberto appears a little better organized this morning with an area\nof deep convection gradually expanding near and to the north of the\ncenter.  A large band of showers and thunderstorms extends well to\nthe east of the center from western Cuba to south Florida and the\nnorthwestern Bahamas.  Despite the improved organization, a fairly\nrecent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 35 kt, and\ntherefore, the initial wind speed is held at that value.  Based on\nthe system's structure, it still appears to be subtropical, but it\nis gaining some more tropical characteristics.  An Air Force\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Alberto later\nthis morning, and should provide a better assessment of its\nintensity and structure.\n\nThe initial motion of 015/11 is highly uncertain since the center\nof the storm has been re-forming and wobbling around.  In fact,\nanother center re-formation can not be ruled out since Doppler radar\nimages show a pronounced mid-level circulation to the northeast of\nthe low-level center.  Alberto is expected to turn northward later\ntoday and then northwestward tonight as it moves around the eastern\nside of a cutoff mid- to upper-level low over the central Gulf of\nMexico.  After Alberto merges with the upper low, a turn back to the\nnorth is forecast by Monday night and Tuesday.  The latest model\nguidance has shifted notably to the right, and the NHC track\nforecast has been adjusted by about 30 n mi in that direction.\nThe eastward shift necessitates extending the tropical storm warning\nalong the Gulf coast of Florida.\n\nEven though Alberto has not yet strengthened, slow intensification\nseems likely until it reaches the coastline on Monday.  The reasons\nfor intensification consist of diffluence associated with a\nnegatively tilted upper-level trough, lower shear, and marginally\nwarm waters in the Gulf of Mexico.  However, the intensity models\nshow a weaker solution this cycle, perhaps because the center may\nmove inland a little sooner, and no model shows Alberto reaching\nhurricane strength. Based on this guidance, the NHC forecast has\nbeen lowered slightly, but it still lies near the high end of the\nmodel predictions.  Alberto is likely to complete its transition to\na tropical storm within 24 hours when it moves into an area of light\nshear, which should allow the cyclone to develop a deeper warm core\nand become more symmetric.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of\nflooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and\nsouth Florida through the day.  The risk for heavy rainfall and\nflooding will then spread over many parts of the southeast U.S.\ntonight and Monday.\n\n2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the central\nand eastern Gulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well\neast of the track of Alberto's center. Residents in the storm surge\nwatch area are encouraged to follow any guidance given by their\nlocal government officials.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm\nwarning area along the Florida west coast today and within the\nwarning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.\n\n4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will likely spread\nnorthward along the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through Monday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 25.0N  84.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 26.8N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 28.6N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 36H  28/1800Z 30.0N  86.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 48H  29/0600Z 31.7N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  30/0600Z 36.2N  86.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  31/0600Z 41.1N  85.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/0600Z 45.0N  80.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-05-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1100 AM EDT Sun May 27 2018\n\nThe satellite and radar presentation of Alberto has improved\nmarkedly over the past 12 hours or so.  Deep convection has\nincreased and become organized in a primary band that wraps around\nthe western and northwestern portions of the storm and the\ncirculation has also become much better defined than 24 hours ago.\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has recently indicated\nthat the pressure has fallen to 994 mb.  The aircraft has also\nreported peak flight-level winds of 49 kt and believable SFMR winds\nof around 40 kt, however, the aircraft has not yet sampled the\nnorthwestern portion of the circulation where the deepest convection\nis located.  Assuming that there are slightly higher winds in that\narea, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.\n\nWith deep convection closer to the center and a slightly smaller\nradius of maximum winds, it appears that Alberto is beginning its\ntransition to a tropical cyclone.  The reconnaissance aircraft data\nalso indicate that a shallow warm core is present.  It is likely\nthat Alberto will make the transition to tropical storm later today\nor tonight.  As this transition occurs, some additional\nstrengthening is forecast while Alberto moves over marginally warm\nsea surface temperatures and the shear relaxes.  However, dry mid-\nlevel air wrapping around the eastern portion of the circulation\ncould slow the intensification process before Alberto reaches the\ncoast.\n\nThe initial motion estimate of 005/12 is again highly uncertain due\nto the center re-formations that have occurred over the past 12 to\n24 hours.  The cyclone should move generally northward today, then\nturn northwestward around the northeastern side of a cutoff low over\nthe central Gulf of Mexico.  The timing and location of landfall of\nthe center will be dependent on when the northwestward turn occurs.\nThe latest ECMWF forecast moves Alberto faster northward before it\nmakes the turn and therefore brings the center onshore much sooner\nand farther eastward than the UKMET and GFS.  The NHC forecast is\nnear the model consensus, and is somewhat faster than the previous\nadvisory.  Users should remember not to focus on the exact timing\nand location of landfall since wind and rain will continue to spread\nnorthward over the northeastern Gulf Coast well ahead of the center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Alberto is expected to produce heavy rainfall with a risk of\nflooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and\nsouth Florida today.  The risk for heavy rainfall and flooding will\nthen spread over much of the southeast U.S. tonight and Monday.\n\n2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern\nGulf Coast beginning later today, including areas well east of the\ntrack of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area\nare encouraged to follow any guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within the tropical storm\nwarning area along the Florida west coast today and within the\nwarning area along the northern Gulf Coast by tonight.\n\n4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nMonday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 27.1N  84.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 28.7N  84.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  28/1200Z 30.3N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/0000Z 31.6N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  29/1200Z 33.6N  86.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  30/1200Z 38.3N  87.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  31/1200Z 43.3N  84.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1200Z 46.5N  79.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-05-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n400 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018\n\nAfter the increase in organization overnight and this morning, dry\nmid-level air has wrapped about three-quarters of the way around\nthe circulation, resulting in an overall decrease in deep\nconvection in all but the southeastern portion of the circulation.\nEarlier ASCAT and reconnaissance aircraft data supported an initial\nwind speed of 45 kt, and that intensity will be maintained for this\nadvisory.  Another reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to\ninvestigate the system this evening.\n\nThe main question regarding the future intensity of Alberto is\nwhether or not the dry air will continue to be ingested near the\ncenter of the cyclone, or whether deep convection is able to\nregenerate overnight while the system is over marginally warm\nSSTs and within a low shear environment.  It is assumed that some\nconvection will redevelop to help maintain Alberto's intensity, but\nthat the environment will not be favorable enough to allow for\nsignificant strengthening.  As a result, little change in intensity\nis forecast before Alberto reaches the northern Gulf Coast on\nMonday.\n\nAlberto appears to have turned north-northwestward with an initial\nmotion estimate of 345/12 kt. The cyclone should move northwestward\nto north-northwestward tonight before turning back northward on\nMonday as it becomes vertically aligned with the upper-level low.\nAfter that time, the system should continue moving northward between\nthe western Atlantic ridge and a mid-upper level trough that\napproaches the central U.S. around mid-week.  The dynamical models\nare in much better agreement on Alberto's track during the next 2 to\n3 days, and the NHC track has been been adjusted accordingly.  The\nnew track is slightly west of and slower than the previous track\nduring the first 24 to 36 hours.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1.  The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the\nFlorida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday.  Heavy\nrain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida\nPanhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle\ninto much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through\nTuesday.\n\n2.  A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the\neastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east\nof the track of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge\nwatch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the\ntropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.\n\n4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nMonday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 28.0N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 29.1N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  28/1800Z 30.4N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/0600Z 32.2N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  29/1800Z 34.7N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  30/1800Z 39.7N  86.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  31/1800Z 45.1N  83.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-05-28 00:30:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Special Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n730 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018\n\nThis special advisory is being issued to show that, based on\nobservations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft, that\nAlberto strengthened to an intensity of 55 kt.  Based on this, the\nintensity forecast through 24 hours is revised upward.  No change\nhas been made to the track forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1.  The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the\nFlorida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday.  Heavy\nrain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida\nPanhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle\ninto much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through\nTuesday.\n\n2.  A hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the\neastern Gulf Coast tonight and tomorrow, including areas well east\nof the track of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge\nwatch area are encouraged to follow guidance given by their local\ngovernment officials.\n\n3. Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the\ntropical storm warning area tonight and tomorrow.\n\n4. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nMonday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0030Z 28.4N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM\n 12H  28/0600Z 29.1N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  28/1800Z 30.4N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/0600Z 32.2N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  29/1800Z 34.7N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  30/1800Z 39.7N  86.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  31/1800Z 45.1N  83.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-05-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1000 PM CDT Sun May 27 2018\n\nThe 0130 UTC center penetration by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters\nindicated that the central pressure had held at 991 mb, and no\nstronger winds were found after the earlier pass through the center.\nTherefore the intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.  The\nsystem is still not well organized with some elongation of the\ncenter noted.  Deep convection near the center remains minimal, so\nthe cyclone is still subtropical, and it appears that the window\nof opportunity for Alberto to become tropical has essentially\nclosed.  Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall,\nwhich is consistent with the latest intensity model consensus and\nthe Florida State University Superensemble and HCCA predictions.\n\nThe forward motion has slowed and turned toward the left and is now\nestimated to be 315/08 kt.  Alberto is moving on the northeastern\nside of a broad deep-layer cyclonic circulation.  Early this week,\na ridge is forecast to build to the east of the storm, and a trough\nwill approach Alberto from the northwest.  This pattern should\ninduce a northward turn over the next few days.  Due to the recent\nmore northwestward motion of the storm, the first 12-24 hours of the\nofficial forecast have been shifted a little to the west of the\nprevious one.  Overall, however the latest NHC forecast has not been\nchanged much and is close to the dynamical model consensus.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1.  The risk of flooding and flash flooding over western Cuba, the\nFlorida Keys, and south Florida will continue through Monday.  Heavy\nrain and the risk of flooding will begin across the Florida\nPanhandle tonight, then spread northward from the Florida Panhandle\ninto much of Alabama, western Georgia, and Tennessee through\nTuesday.\n\n2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern\nGulf Coast overnight and tomorrow, including areas well east of the\ntrack of Alberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area\nare encouraged to follow guidance given by their local government\nofficials.\n\n3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the\ntropical storm warning area overnight and tomorrow.\n\n4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nTuesday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 28.5N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 29.6N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 31.2N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/1200Z 33.3N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/0000Z 35.8N  87.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/0000Z 41.5N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0000Z 46.5N  82.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-05-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n400 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018\n\nAlberto is holding its strength this morning.  The Air Force\nHurricane Hunters investigated the cyclone a few hours ago and found\nwinds to the north of the center that still support an intensity of\nabout 55 kt. The aircraft data and a NOAA buoy near the center also\nindicate that the minimum pressure has dropped a little more to 990\nmb.  Deep convection remains patchy, however, due to pronounced dry\nslots, but Doppler radar images do show some convective bands moving\nonshore over the Florida Panhandle.\n\nGiven the short period of time before Alberto makes landfall,\nits overall ragged appearance, and proximity to dry air, little\nchange in strength is expected before the subtropical storm reaches\nthe coast this afternoon.  Once Alberto is inland, land interaction\nshould cause steady weakening to a subtropical depression tonight or\nearly Tuesday and to a remnant low by Tuesday afternoon.  The global\nmodels show the low being absorbed by a frontal system over the\nGreat Lakes region by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely\nan update of the previous one, and is in line with the majority of\nthe guidance.\n\nThe center of Alberto has wobbled to the left and slowed down\nsignificantly during the past 6 hours, but a longer-term motion is\nnorthwestward, or 315 degrees, at 6 kt.  A north-northwestward to\nnorthward motion along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge is\nexpected during the next few days taking Alberto, or its remnants,\nover the Florida Panhandle and then well inland over the Tennessee\nand Ohio Valleys.  A turn to the northeast is predicted before\nAlberto's remnants are absorbed by the above-mentioned frontal\nsystem. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small\nchanges were made to the previous NHC track prediction.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding\nacross the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia\nthrough tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the\nwestern Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday. A risk of flooding and\nflash flooding will continue over western Cuba, the Florida Keys,\nand southern Florida today.\n\n2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern\nGulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of\nAlberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area are\nencouraged to follow guidance given by their local government\nofficials.\n\n3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the\ntropical storm warning area today.\n\n4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nTuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 28.6N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 30.1N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 32.1N  86.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/1800Z 34.6N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/0600Z 37.4N  87.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/0600Z 43.0N  86.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/0600Z 48.0N  81.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1000 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018\n\nAlberto has struggled to produce significant deep convection since\nearly this morning, however, there are several bands of shallow\nconvection that wrap around the eastern and northern portions of the\ncirculation.  The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not\nfound winds as high as last evening, but has reported SFMR winds of\n45 to 50 kt which support an initial intensity of 50 kt.  The\npressure has risen a couple of millibars with data from a recent\ncenter dropsonde supporting a minimum pressure of 992 mb.\n\nSince the primary convective bands are already moving onshore along\nthe coast of the Florida panhandle, little change in strength is\nexpected through landfall later today.  After landfall, Alberto\nshould quickly weaken and become a depression tonight or early\nTuesday, then degenerate into a remnant low over the Tennessee\nValley in about 36 hours.\n\nThe latest couple of center fixes from the aircraft show that\nAlberto has jogged to the east this morning.  The longer-term\nmotion, however, is generally northward at about 7 kt.  A northward\nto north-northwestward motion should bring the center onshore in the\nFlorida panhandle this afternoon or evening.  After landfall, the\nsystem should continue generally northward around the western\nportion of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic.\nBefore the system is absorbed by a frontal boundary over Canada late\nin the week, it should turn northeastward ahead of a trough moving\nthrough the central United States.  The track guidance is in\nrelatively good agreement, and only minor adjustments were needed\nto the previous NHC track forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding\nacross the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia\nthrough tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the\nwestern Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday.  A risk of flooding and\nflash flooding will continue over central Cuba, the Florida Keys,\nand southern Florida today.\n\n2.  Hazardous storm surge is possible along portions of the eastern\nGulf Coast today, including areas well east of the track of\nAlberto's center.  Residents in the storm surge watch area are\nencouraged to follow guidance given by their local government\nofficials.\n\n3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the\ntropical storm warning area today.\n\n4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nTuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 29.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 30.8N  86.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  29/1200Z 33.0N  86.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  30/0000Z 35.9N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1200Z 38.9N  87.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/1200Z 44.9N  84.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1200Z 48.5N  78.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n400 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018\n\nSatellite and NWS Doppler radar data indicate that the center of\nAlberto is making landfall along the coast of the Florida panhandle\nnear Laguna Beach with maximum winds estimated at 40 kt.  The\noverall organization of the system has changed little throughout\nthe day as bands of convection have continued to develop primarily\nover the northern portion of the circulation.  Data from the Air\nForce reconnaissance aircraft showed that the pressure continued to\nslowly rise and it was estimated to be 994 mb on the last fix just\nbefore 1700 UTC.  Alberto should quickly weaken as the circulation\nmoves inland this evening and the system should become a depression\nby late tonight or early Tuesday.\n\nAlberto has been moving northward or 355/8 kt.  The track forecast\nreasoning has not changed from the previous advisory.  The cyclone\nshould move northward to north-northwestward around the western\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge located over the western Atlantic\nover the next couple of days.  The system is forecast to be absorbed\nby a frontal system over Canada in 3 to 4 days.  The track guidance\nremains in good agreement on this scenario and only slight changes\nto the official forecast were required.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding\nacross the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia\nthrough tonight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the\nwestern Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday.\n\n2.  A hazardous storm surge remains possible along portions of the\ncoast of the Florida panhandle through this evening.  Residents in\nthe storm surge watch area are encouraged to follow guidance given\nby their local government officials.\n\n3.  Tropical storm conditions are likely within portions of the\ntropical storm warning through this evening.\n\n4.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nTuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 30.3N  85.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 32.0N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  29/1800Z 34.3N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  30/0600Z 37.0N  87.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  30/1800Z 40.1N  86.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  31/1800Z 46.2N  82.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Alberto","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n1000 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018\n\nAlberto's circulation continues to move farther inland, and is now\ncentered over southeastern Alabama.  Surface synoptic observations\nindicate that the system has weakened to a 30-kt subtropical\ndepression.   Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over land\nduring the next few days, and the system should degenerate into a\nremnant low in 24 hours or sooner.  The low is forecast to\ndissipate in 96 hours but some of the guidance, such as the latest\nrun of the GFS, suggests that this event could occur sooner.\n\nThe depression is moving northward at a somewhat faster pace, or\n350/10 kt.  The track forecast philosophy has not changed\nsignificantly.  The cyclone should accelerate north-northwestward to\nnorthward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the\neast and southeast over the next couple of days.  After that, the\nsystem should turn toward the north-northeast due to the influence\nof the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is\nclose to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN, and is similar\nto the previous NHC forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding\nacross the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia\novernight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the\nwestern Carolinas, and Tennessee on Tuesday.\n\n2.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\nTuesday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 31.4N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  29/1200Z 32.9N  86.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  30/0000Z 35.6N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  30/1200Z 38.4N  87.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/0000Z 41.6N  86.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0000Z 48.0N  81.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Alberto","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL012018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nSubtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012018\n400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018\n\nRadar and surface observations indicate that Alberto is moving\nnorth-northwestward at about 10 kt across central Alabama, and the\nassociated convective pattern remains well organized in the radar\ndata.  During the past few hours, Montgomery has reported sustained\nwinds near 25 kt with gusts around 35 kt, so the initial intensity\nis set to 25 kt.  Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over\nland during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into\na remnant low in 24 h or less.  The low is expected to dissipate\ncompletely by 96 h, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests\nthis could occur earlier.\n\nAlberto or its remnants should accelerate north-northwestward to\nnorthward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the\neast and southeast over the next couple of days.  After that, the\nsystem should turn toward the north-northeast as it recurves into\nthe mid-latitude westerlies.  The new track forecast is similar to\nthe previous forecast and is again close to the dynamical model\nconsensus TVCN near the center of the tightly clustered guidance.\n\nThis is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on\nAlberto.  Future information on this system can be found in Public\nAdvisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at\n10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on\nthe web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1.  Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding\nacross the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia\novernight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the\nwestern Carolinas, and Tennessee today.\n\n2.  Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to\naffect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through\ntoday.\n\n3. Future advisories on Alberto will be issued by the Weather\nPrediction Center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 32.3N  86.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  29/1800Z 34.1N  87.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  30/0600Z 36.8N  87.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  30/1800Z 39.8N  87.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/0600Z 43.1N  85.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0600Z 49.5N  79.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-06-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 05 2018\n \nDuring the past several hours, a prominent convective band began\ndeveloping in association with the low pressure system that we have\nbeen tracking south of Mexico during the past few days.  In using\nthat band for Dvorak estimates, TAFB provided a satellite intensity\nestimate of T2.0/30 kt while SAB provided an estimate of T1.5/25\nkt.  In addition, GOES-16 1-minute visible satellite imagery showed\nthat the low had developed a closed surface circulation and a\nwell-defined center.  Advisories are therefore being initiated on\nTropical Depression Two-E, with an initial intensity of 30 kt based\non an earlier partial ASCAT pass.\n \nThe depression is currently moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.\nHowever, due to a mid-level ridge centered over northwestern Mexico,\nthe cyclone is expected to turn westward and slow down during the\nnext 24 hours.  By days 3-5, the cyclone should reach a weakness in\nthe ridge, allowing it to turn back toward the northwest but\nmaintain its slow motion.  While the dynamical models all generally\nagree on this scenario, there are some noticeable differences in the\nguidance.  The ECMWF lies to the south of the other models, while\nthe HWRF is to the north and generally faster than the other\nguidance.  For this first official forecast, the NHC prediction lies\nclose to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and is of\naverage confidence.\n \nEnvironmental conditions appear ideal for intensification.  Sea\nsurface temperatures will be close to 30 degrees Celsius for the\nnext 36 hours, while at the same time deep-layer shear will be very\nlow and upper-level divergence will be high.  In response, the Rapid\nIntensification Indices are giving a 50/50 chance of a 45-kt\nincrease in 36 hours and a 55-kt increase in 48 hours.  As a\nresult, the NHC official intensity forecast is rather aggressive and\nlies slightly above the highest guidance through the first 3 days,\nmaking the cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours.  Gradual weakening is\nexpected on days 4 and 5 when the hurricane reaches cooler waters.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  06/0300Z 14.1N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 14.3N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 14.5N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 14.7N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 14.8N 109.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 15.3N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 16.5N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n \n$$\nForecaster Berg\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-06-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018\n\nDeep convection has increased significantly during the past 12\nhours, and the cloud pattern is better organized with the formation\nof a few cyclonically curved bands. The outflow is fair in all\nquadrants. An ASCAT pass a few hours ago, indicate that the winds\nare between 35 to 40 kt, but these winds are confined to a band to\nthe east of the center.  On this basis, the depression has been\nupgraded to Tropical Storm Aletta, the first named system of the\n2018 eastern North Pacific season.\n\nAn prevailing environment of low shear favors intensification, and\nalthough the Rapid Intensification Indices are not as high as\nearlier, they are still on the high side. The NHC forecast calls for\nAletta to become a hurricane in 36 hours as indicated in the\nprevious forecast. After 3 days, when the cyclone reaches cooler\nwater and higher shear, a gradual weakening is anticipated.\n\nIt appears that Aletta is moving toward the west at about 6 kt\naround the periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over\nnorthwestern Mexico. However, a weakness in the ridge should cause\nthe cyclone to gradually gain some latitude during the next few days\nwith no significant change in forward speed. The NHC forecast\nfollows the model consensus, and it is basically centered in the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north\nand the ECMWF to the south.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 14.1N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 14.2N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 14.6N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 15.0N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 16.5N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-06-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 AM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern of the storm is gradually becoming better\norganized, but most of the deep convection is confined to the\neastern and southern portions of the circulation.  Cirrus cloud\nmotions suggest that the upper-level outflow is slightly restricted\nover the northwest quadrant, but vertical shear is not very strong\nover the system.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB\nare unchanged from the previous synoptic time so the current\nintensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory.  Since Aletta should\nremain over warm waters with modest shear over the next several\ndays, strengthening is likely.  The model guidance is not very\nbullish on intensification, however.  Given the apparently\nfavorable environment, the official forecast is at the high end of\nthe guidance.\n\nBased on a recent GMI microwave image, the center is repositioned a\nlittle to the north of the previous track.  This gives an\nestimated initial motion of 280/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending\nfrom Mexico into the eastern Pacific should induce a westward or\nslightly north of west motion over the next several days.  The\nlatest GFS and its ensemble mean are on the northern side of the\ntrack guidance envelope and the ECMWF forecast is near the southern\nside.  The official forecast essentially splits the difference and\nlies quite close to the dynamical model consensus, and is not much\ndifferent from the previous NHC track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 14.7N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 14.8N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 15.0N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 15.2N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 15.4N 111.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 16.0N 113.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-06-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 PM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018\n\nAletta's cloud pattern has not become noticeably better organized\nduring the day, and the banding features are not very well\ndefined in enhanced infrared imagery.  There is a dry intrusion\nover the northwest quadrant of the circulation with some\nrestriction of the upper-level outflow over that quadrant as well.\nDvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB give a current\nintensity of 35 kt but a recent scatterometer pass indicated that\nthe maximum winds are close to 40 kt, and that value will be used\nfor the advisory intensity.  Although the storm has not\nstrengthened since early this morning, it is anticipated that the\ncyclone will be moving through fairly low vertical shear and over\nSSTs of 28 or 29 deg C during the next few days.  This favorable\nenvironment should cause intensification.   The official forecast,\nwhich is close to the simple or corrected model consensus guidance,\ncontinues to call for Aletta to become a hurricane by late Thursday\nor early Friday.\n\nHigh temporal and spatial resolution GOES-16 imagery suggested\nmultiple low-level swirls near the estimated center position.\nBased on geostationary and microwave imagery along with the\nscatterometer data, the initial motion continues to be slowly\nwestward or 270/7 kt.  The flow on the south side of a mid-level\nridge extending from Mexico into the eastern North Pacific should\ncontinue to steer Aletta westward to west-northwestward over the\nnext few days.  In 3-4 days, most of the track guidance shows the\ncyclone bending a little more to the right in response to a\nweakness in the ridge.  As was the case in the previous cycle, the\nGFS shows the northernmost track and the ECMWF the southernmost.\nThe official forecast lies between these extremes and is close to\nthe model consensus.  This is a tad slower than the previous NHC\nforecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 14.2N 107.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 14.4N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 14.5N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 14.7N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 15.0N 112.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N 113.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 17.3N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-06-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 PM MDT Wed Jun 06 2018\n\nDeep convection has been bursting just to the northeast of the\ncenter during the past few hours, although a recent SSMI/S overpass\nsuggests that the low-level circulation continues to consist of\nmultiple swirls rotating around a common center.  Because of the\nincrease in convection, subjective satellite intensity estimates\nfrom TAFB and SAB have gone up to T3.0, so the initial intensity is\nset at 45 kt.\n\nThere is about 15 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear impinging on\nAletta according to analyses from UW-CIMSS, which can be seen in the\nmotions of the high cirrus emanating away from additional convection\nto the southwest.  The global models aren't picking up on this shear\nvery well, with the SHIPS diagnostics currently showing shear just\nunder 10 kt.  It now appears that some westerly shear could persist\nover Aletta for the next few days, and thus only modest\nintensification is expected over waters that are 27-29 degrees\nCelsius.  The NHC official forecast still calls for Aletta\nto reach hurricane strength in a couple of days, and the updated\nforecast is close to the HCCA guidance and the intensity consensus\nthrough 48 hours.  The intensity models are showing a faster\nweakening rate starting on day 3 due to cooler waters and higher\nshear, and although the NHC forecast has been trended downward to\naccount for this, it still lies above much of the guidance later in\nthe forecast period.\n\nThe latest fixes indicate that Aletta is slowing down, and the\ninitial motion estimate is 275/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge centered\nover northwestern Mexico should continue to steer the cyclone slowly\nwestward for a day or two.  A continued slow motion to the\nwest-northwest or northwest is then expected starting in 48 hours\nonce Aletta reaches a break in the subtropical ridge.  The ECMWF\nremains on the southern side of the guidance envelope, while the\nGFS, HMON, and HWRF lie on the northern edge. Since the upper-level\npatterns among these models are similar, the discrepancies among\ntheir respective tracks appear related to how strong they each make\nthe cyclone, as the models with a stronger cyclone forecast a\nmore northerly track. The new NHC forecast is closest to the HCCA\nguidance and is not too different from the previous official\nforecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 14.3N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 14.5N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 14.7N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 14.9N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 15.2N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.3N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 18.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-06-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 AM MDT Thu Jun 07 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern has become a little better organized and the\nlow-level center appears to be more embedded within the deep\nconvection than several hours ago. Although the outflow is fair,\nthere are still shear at some level affecting the cyclone by\nobserving the motion of the cirrus clouds.  T-numbers from all\nagencies including the UW-CIMSS objective values have increased to\n3.5 on the Dvorak scale, so the initial intensity has been increased\nto 55 kt.\n\nGuidance suggests some modest intensification, although there is a\ndifference between the GFS-based SHIPS model and the ECMWF-based\none.  The latter is less aggressive and barely forecast Aletta\nto become a hurricane.  The NHC follows the intensity consensus and\nthe FSU super-ensemble, and calls for Aletta to become a hurricane\nwithin the next 12 to 24 hours. After 3 days, the environment\nbecomes unfavorable and a gradual weakening should then begin.\n\nAletta is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 6 kt\naround the periphery of a subtropical ridge over Mexico. This\npattern should continue to steer the cyclone on a general\nwestward course for a day or two, and then the cyclone sould turn to\nthe west-northwest or northwest toward a weakness of the ridge.  The\nNHC forecast is very close to the FSU super-ensemble, and is in the\nmiddle of the wide guidance envelope bounded by the GFS to the north\nand the ECMWF to the south.\n\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 14.7N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 14.9N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 15.3N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 15.7N 112.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 17.0N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-06-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 AM MDT Thu Jun 07 2018\n\nThe low-level center of Aletta has been somewhat difficult to locate\nthis morning.  Moderate westerly shear still appears to be affecting\nthe tropical storm, and a recent SSMIS pass at 1329 UTC indicates\nthat the low-level center is displaced slightly to the west of the\nmid-level center.  A pronounced dry slot is present in IR and WV\nimagery, though a recent burst of convection near the center\nsuggests that it may no longer be substantially inhibiting\nconvection.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\nat 1200 UTC were 55 kt, while objective estimates from SATCON and\nthe ADT are around 60 kt.  Given the increase of convection near the\ncenter since the TAFB and SAB classifications, the initial intensity\nhas been raised to 60 kt.\n\nLittle change has been made to the intensity forecast, which is\nslightly above the consensus guidance IVCN and HCCA, but below a\nmean of the dynamical hurricane models.  The westerly shear\ncurrently affecting Aletta is expected to decrease over the next 12\nto 24 hours, allowing the tropical storm to strengthen. By 48 hours,\nincreasing shear and decreasing SSTs will likely induce a weakening\ntrend that should accelerate through 72 h.  Aletta will likely\nbecome a remnant low sometime near or just after 120 h.\n\nAletta appears to have taken a slight turn toward the northwest this\nmorning but the longer-term motion estimate is 290 at about 5 kt.\nAletta will be steered generally west-northwest to northwestward\nover the next 5 days, with the largest source of uncertainty being\nhow deep the circulation will be.  A stronger, deeper cyclone will\nlikely track farther north in response to an upper-level trough to\nthe northwest, as shown by the GFS.  A weaker cyclone will instead\nbe steered more by the mid-level ridge to the north, and move on a\nheading closer to due west, as shown by the ECMWF.  The NHC forecast\nsplits these solutions, and is consistent with the intensity\nforecast which also is also lower than the GFS but well above the\nECMWF.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.9N 109.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 15.1N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 15.4N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 15.8N 112.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 16.4N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 17.6N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-06-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 PM MDT Thu Jun 07 2018\n\nAn eye has become apparent in visible geostationary satellite\nimagery, although the central deep convection is not very symmetric\non enhanced infrared imagery.  Based on a blend of objective and\nsubjective Dvorak T-numbers, the current intensity is estimated to\nbe 65 kt, which makes Aletta the first eastern North Pacific\nhurricane of 2018.  Since the system should continue to traverse a\nwarm ocean and experience weak vertical shear for the next day or\ntwo, additional strengthening is forecast.  By Saturday some\nincrease in shear is likely, which should cause weakening to\ncommence.  The official intensity forecast is at the high end of\nthe numerical guidance.\n\nAletta has been moving somewhat north of the previous track\nprojections, and the initial motion is about 300/5 kt.  The main\nfactors controlling the steering of the hurricane are a mid-level\nridge to the northeast and a weakness in the ridge to the northwest\nof Aletta, as well as the future intensity of the cyclone.  There is\nsignificantly more spread in the track guidance model than is usual\nfor an east Pacific tropical cyclone.  The GFS and HWRF, which\ndepict a stronger system, have the northernmost tracks.  The ECMWF,\nwhich does not show that strong of a cyclone in its forecast,\npredicts the southernmost track.  The official forecast lies between\nthese options and is close to the corrected consensus guidance.\nThis is somewhat north of the previous NHC track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 15.3N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 15.6N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 16.1N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 16.5N 112.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 17.1N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 18.7N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 19.3N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-06-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 PM MDT Thu Jun 07 2018\n\nBased on how Aletta looked last evening, it would have been hard to\nimagine the cyclone improving in structure so drastically.  Yet, the\nhurricane has continued to improve in organization and has deep\nconvection with cloud tops as cold as -85C completely surrounding a\nragged, cloud-filled eye.  Dvorak classifications have increased to\nT5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while objective guidance from the\nUW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON have increased more modestly to between\n75-80 kt.  Based on these data, Aletta's current intensity is\nestimated to be 85 kt.  Since Aletta's estimated intensity 24 hours\nago was 45 kt, the cyclone's recent strengthening meets the\ncriterion for rapid intensification.\n\nAletta appears to have another 24 hours or so before vertical shear\ngradually increases, and 48 hours before sea surface temperatures\nbecome marginal to support further strengthening.  Therefore,\nadditional intensification is anticipated during the next 24 hours,\nand the new NHC official forecast brings Aletta's intensity to just\nbelow major hurricane status.  The chance of a another 20-kt\nincrease in the next 12 hours is just under 50 percent, so it's not\nout of the question that Aletta could reach major hurricane\nstrength on Friday.  Weakening is anticipated to begin by 36 hours,\nand the weakening rate should be rather fast in 3 to 4 days due to\nstronger shear and colder waters.  The updated NHC forecast is\nclose to HCCA and the intensity consensus for the first couple of\ndays but then is above most of the guidance after 48 hours to\nmaintain continuity with the previous forecast.  The GFS and ECMWF\nmodels show Aletta's convection dissipating in about 4 days, so the\nNHC forecast now calls for the cyclone to become a remnant low by\nday 5.\n\nAletta is being steered slowly west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt,\naround a mid-level ridge located over northwestern Mexico and\ntoward a break in the ridge located west of the Baja California\npeninsula.  Because the hurricane has strengthened more than\npreviously expected, it has taken a jog toward the north, closer to\nwhere more aggressive models such as the GFS and HWRF had been\npredicting.  With the additional strengthening anticipated, the NHC\ntrack forecast largely discounts the ECMWF solution, which is an\noutlier to the south of the other models, and lies farther north\nclose to the TVCE model consensus and HCCA models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 15.6N 110.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 16.6N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 17.2N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 19.1N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-06-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018\n\nAletta's impressive satellite presentation has not changed much\nsince the 6Z special advisory.  Thus the initial wind speed will\nstay 105 kt, which is very similar to a blend of the latest Dvorak\nestimates.  The hurricane has less than a day to strengthen before\nthe environment becomes less hospitable, with a notable increase in\nshear and decrease in water temperatures forecast this weekend.\nThese conditions will likely cause significant weakening of Aletta\nover the weekend, with rapid weakening predicted by Sunday.  The\nofficial forecast is similar to the previous one, but has been\nlowered at long range in accordance with the latest guidance.  The\nGFS and ECMWF suggest Aletta will lose deep convection by day 4, so\nthe remnant low timing has been moved up to that day.\n\nThe hurricane has been moving slowly at about 5 kt during the\nnight, with a motion toward the west-northwest or northwest.  As the\nshear increases on Saturday, Aletta should turn a little more to\nthe northwest as the deep circulation feels the southwesterly flow\nassociated with a broad upper trough over the eastern Pacific.  By\nMonday, the cyclone should turn more to the west-northwest and then\nwestward by the end of the forecast due to Aletta becoming a more\nshallow system and being steered by a low-level ridge.  One notable\noutlier is the ECMWF model, which moves Aletta more westward almost\nimmediately, resulting in a much farther south track than the other\nmodels.  This model has had a southward bias for this storm and is\nweighted less it normally would be in this advisory package.  The\nnew forecast is close to the previous one, which also put less\nweight on the ECMWF solution, and lies near the evenly weighted\ntrack consensus TVCE.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 16.1N 111.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 16.7N 112.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 17.4N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 18.2N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 19.3N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  13/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-06-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018\n\nThe remarkable intensification of Aletta has continued through this\nmorning.  The eye has become clear and at times has been\nsurrounded by a closed ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C.\nThe initial intensity of 120 kt is based on a blend of subjective\nand objective Dvorak estimates.  It is noteworthy that the\nintensity of Aletta has increased by an estimated 60 kt in just 24\nhours since yesterday morning.\n\nThe short-range intensity forecast is particularly difficult since\nthere are no obvious reasons why Aletta should cease\nintensification.  Although the deep-layer wind shear is currently\nvery low and SSTs are warm enough to support further\nintensification, nearly all of the intensity guidance indicates that\nAletta should have reached its peak.  Recent microwave imagery does\nindicates that a secondary eyewall has not yet formed, however\nthe resolution of the instruments could limit our ability to detect\nsuch a feature.  Given the low bias of the guidance for Aletta so\nfar, the new forecast allows for some slight additional\nstrengthening during the day today.  By 24 hours, moderate shear\nshould cause the hurricane to begin weakening steadily, with rapid\nweakening occuring between 36 and 72 h while Aletta traverses a\nstrong SST gradient.  Due to the higher initial intensity of Aletta,\nthe official forecast is a little higher than the previous one for\nthe first 24 hours, but very similar thereafter.\n\nAlmost no change has been to the track forecast.  A broad\nupper-level trough over the eastern Pacific should cause Aletta to\nturn more toward the northwest in 24 to 36 h.  After Aletta rapidly\nweakens over the weekend, the lower-level trade winds will become\nthe dominant steering flow, forcing the cyclone to turn back toward\nthe west.  Excluding the ECMWF which does not have a realistic\ndepiction of the major hurricane, the guidance has come into\nsomewhat better agreement today and confidence in the track\nforecast has increased since yesterday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 15.8N 111.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 17.0N 112.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 17.9N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 18.6N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 19.5N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  13/1200Z 20.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-06-08 18:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Special Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n1200 AM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Aletta has continued to rapidly\nintensify, with very deep convection in the eyewall and a warm eye.\nThe initial intensity is set to 105 kt, on the low end of a range of\nestimates from 105 kt from CIMSS-SATCON to 115 kt at 0500 UTC from a\nspecial TAFB Dvorak classification.\n\nThis special advisory is being issued to update Aletta's current\nand forecast intensity.  The intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt,\nwhich is close to a persistence forecast. Afterwards a combination\nof increasing shear and cooling waters should begin to weaken the\ncyclone, and no changes were required to the forecast beyond 24\nhours.\n\nThere are no changes to track forecast from the last advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0600Z 15.6N 110.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 16.6N 111.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 17.2N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.8N 113.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 19.1N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-06-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 PM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018\n\nAletta remains a formidable category 4 hurricane, although there\nhas been some weakening of the core convection during the day.  The\ncurrent intensity is held at 120 kt which is a blend of subjective\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with objective Dvorak\nvalues.  After the notable strengthening episode over the last 24\nhours, it appears that the intensity has leveled off.  This is\nalso consistent with GOES-16 measurements of increased inner-core\nlightning observed to be occurring to the east of the eastern\neyewall, which some research suggests corresponds to a halting of\nthe intensification process.  Since vertical shear is expected to\nincrease in 12 to 24 hours, a weakening trend is forecast to begin\nlate tonight or tomorrow. A more rapid weakening will likely\ncommence on Sunday as Aletta begins to traverse cooler waters.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is at the upper bound of the numerical\nguidance.\n\nThe hurricane has moved on a more westward course today, and the\ninitial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt.  Aletta is moving along\nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area and\nshould continue to do so over the next day or two.  Later in the\nforecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallower cyclone\nshould turn westward and south of westward, following the low-level\ntradewind flow.  The official forecast is close to the dynamical\nmodel consensus TVCE and is somewhat south of the previous NHC\ntrack.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 111.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.5N 112.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 17.2N 113.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 17.9N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 18.6N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 18.6N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  13/1800Z 18.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-06-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 PM MDT Fri Jun 08 2018\n\nAletta's weakening phase has begun, with the eye becoming cloud\nfilled in visible satellite imagery since the last advisory.\nAn analysis from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicates that\nvertical shear has increased to 15-20 kt out of the south-southwest,\nand a 2309 UTC SSMI/S pass confirms that the hurricane's structure\nis responding to that shear.  All final-T numbers have decreased,\nand the initial intensity is set at 110 kt as a blend of the various\nfinal-T and CI numbers.  This is also supported by the latest SATCON\nestimate.\n\nVertical shear is forecast to strengthen during the next 36 hours,\nand Aletta will be moving over marginally warm sea surface\ntemperatures, both of which should cause the cyclone to continue\nweakening.  The new intensity models are now showing a much more\nsignificant rate of weakening, and the updated NHC intensity\nforecast follows suit, bringing down the winds much faster than\nshown in the previous forecast.  The NHC forecast is near the top\nend of the guidance for the first 24 hours and then close to the\nICON intensity consensus from 36 hours and beyond.  Interestingly,\nthe HCCA guidance weakens Aletta to a tropical storm within 24\nhours, so it wouldn't be surprising if the hurricane weakens faster\nthan shown in the official forecast.  Aletta is now forecast to\ndegenerate into a remnant low by day 3.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/5 kt.  Since Aletta is moving\naround the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over\nnorthwestern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to maintain a slow\nwest-northwestward or northwestward motion for the next 36 hours.\nAfter that time, the weakening storm should turn back toward the\nwest and eventually southwest as it becomes increasingly steered by\nthe low-level trade winds and the flow around another developing\ntropical cyclone to the east.  The new NHC track forecast is a\nlittle south of the previous forecast to account for an overall\nsouthward shift in the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.2N 112.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 16.6N 113.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 17.3N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 17.7N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 17.8N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 17.8N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/0000Z 17.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0000Z 16.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-06-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 AM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018\n\nAletta's cloud pattern has continued to gradually degrade\novernight.  The eye is no longer apparent in infrared satellite\npictures and the overall cloud pattern has become less symmetric\ndue to the effects of southerly wind shear.  Recent microwave\nimagery also shows that the southwestern portion of the inner\ncore has eroded and most of the convective banding is located\nover the northeastern portion of the circulation. Subjective and\nobjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased and a blend of the\nFinal-T and CI-numbers yields an initial intensity estimate of\n95 kt.\n\nAletta should continue to weaken during the next day or two as the\nvertical wind shear increases and the cyclone moves over gradually\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures.  These conditions are expected\nto cause a rapid decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 h.\nAfter that time, Aletta is forecast to move over SSTs below 26\ndegrees Celsius and into a less favorable thermodynamic environment,\nwhich should result in a continued spin down and degeneration\nof the system to a remnant low within 72 hours.  The intensity\nguidance is in fairly good agreement and the NHC intensity forecast\nis close to the ICON consensus.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains 285/5 kt. There has been\nno significant change to the track forecast reasoning since the\nprevious advisory.  Aletta should continue to move around the\nsouthwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico\nduring the next day or so.  After Aletta weakens and becomes a more\nvertically shallow system, it should turn westward, then\nsouthwestward in the low-level trade wind flow.  The overall\nguidance envelope has once again shifted southward and the updated\nNHC track forecast has been moved in that direction to be closer to\nthe various consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 16.2N 112.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 16.6N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 17.0N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 17.2N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 17.2N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 17.0N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/0600Z 16.6N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-06-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 AM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018\n\nRecent microwave data indicates that the cloud pattern of Aletta\ncontinues to lose organization due to southerly vertical wind\nshear, with the remains of the eye located near the south edge of\nthe main convective area.  The initial intensity is reduced to a\npossibly generous 85 kt based on a combination of subjective and\nobjective satellite intensity estimates.\n\nRapid weakening should continue due to a combination of shear,\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, and\nentrainment of dry air.  Aletta is currently forecast to drop below\nhurricane strength in less than 24 h, weaken to a depression by 48\nh, and subsequently degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h.  The new\nintensity forecast follows the trend of the tightly clustered\nintensity guidance.\n\nThe initial motion is now 295/5.  The cyclone should move generally\nnorthwestward around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge\nover northwestern Mexico during the next day or so.  After Aletta\nweakens and becomes a more vertically shallow system, it should turn\nwestward, and then southwestward, in the low-level trade wind flow.\nIn contrast to the last advisory, the guidance envelope for this\nadvisory has has shifted somewhat to the north.  The new forecast\ntrack is similar to, but just north of the previous forecast, and it\nlies to the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the\ngroup of consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 16.4N 113.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 16.9N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 17.3N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 17.4N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 17.0N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1200Z 15.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-06-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Aletta Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 PM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018\n\nAletta has rapidly weakened during the past several hours, with the\nmain convection currently dissipating to the north and northeast of\nthe now-exposed low-level center.  The initial intensity is reduced\nto a possibly generous 65 kt based on a combination of subjective\nand objective satellite intensity estimates.  Rapid weakening should\ncontinue due to a combination of shear, decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures along the forecast track, and entrainment of dry air.\nBased on current trends, the new intensity forecast shows a faster\ndemise for Aletta than the previous advisory, with the system now\nforecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h, and degenerate to a\nremnant low by 48 h.\n\nThe initial motion is quite uncertain due to Aletta being south of\nwhere the earlier microwave fixes indicated it to be and due to the\nexposed center moving southwestward.  This advisory will use a\nlonger-term motion of 275/5.  Most of the track guidance forecasts\nthe cyclone to resume a west-northwestward motion over the next few\nhours, then again turn westward by 24-36 h.  After that time the\nremnants of Aletta are expected to move slowly west-southwestward.\nThe new forecast track follows this basic scenario, but it lies well\nto the south of the center of the guidance envelope and the\nconsensus models based on the current trends.  An alternate scenario\nis that Aletta never makes the west-northwestward turn, which would\nresult in the decaying system tracking south of the new forecast\ntrack.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 16.1N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 16.6N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 17.0N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 17.1N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 16.9N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  12/1800Z 16.6N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  13/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1800Z 15.5N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-06-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n400 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018\n\nRecent visible satellite imagery indicates that the disturbance to\nthe south of Mexico has developed a well-defined surface\ncirculation.  One-minute imagery from a GOES-16 mesoscale sector\nwas useful in determining that the circulation had become closed.\nIn addition, deep convection has increased near the center today and\na nearly continuous band of cold cloud tops wraps around the\nsouthern and western semicircles of the circulation.  The latest\nDvorak classification from TAFB is a 2.0/2.0, and on that basis the\nsystem has been classified as Tropical Depression Three-E with an\ninitial intensity of 30 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 295/8 kt, but this is rather\nuncertain since the surface center of the depression has been often\nobscured by higher clouds this afternoon.  A west-northwest to\nnorthwest heading, parallel to the coast of Mexico, is likely for\nthe next few days while the system moves along the periphery of a\nmid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  Near the end of the forecast\nperiod, the cyclone should slow and turn more toward the north-\nnorthwest, between the aforementioned ridge to the east and a mid-\nto upper-level trough to the west.  The dynamical guidance is very\ntightly clustered, with the main uncertainty being speed.  The\nofficial forecast is near the mean of the GFS and ECMWF positions\nand closely follows the corrected consensus, HCCA.\n\nThe depression is located within a generally favorable environment\nfor strengthening.  SSTs are above 30 deg C and there is ample\nmoisture.  The only inhibiting factor appears to be moderate\nnortheasterly shear of 10-15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF\nmodels, which should decrease within the next 24 hours.  At least\nsteady strengthening is shown by all of the intensity guidance, and\nthis seems likely for the next 24 hours.  Beyond that time, rapid\nintensification can not be ruled out.  The official forecast at 36\nthrough 72 h is near the top of the intensity guidance, in close\nagreement with the DSHP model.  By day 5, the cyclone will likely\napproach a sharp SST gradient south of the Baja California peninsula\nwhich should cause it to quickly weaken.  By the end of the forecast\nperiod, the NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 12.4N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 13.2N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 14.3N 104.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.4N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 16.2N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 17.4N 108.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-06-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n900 PM MDT Sat Jun 09 2018\n\nAletta's downfall has been remarkable.  All associated deep\nconvection has dissipated due to 25 kt of southerly shear and\nmarginally warm sea surface temperatures, leaving a swirl of low-\nto mid-level clouds.  Dvorak estimates are falling as fast as they\ncan based on rules, and the advisory intensity is being set at 50\nkt.  The latest SATCON numbers support this estimate.\n\nAletta has been losing latitude through the day, moving\nwest-southwestward since this morning.  Recent satellite images\nseem to suggest that the cyclone is now moving westward, and the\nmotion estimate is 270/6 kt.  The dynamical and simpler Trajectory\nand Beta Models (TAB) have been insisting that Aletta will turn\ngenerally northwestward, but that obviously hasn't happened.  The\nmodels seem to be assuming that Aletta is still producing\nconvection, with the deeper modeled vortex being steered toward the\nnorthwest.  With no deep convection, the shallow circulation is\nlikely to continue generally westward or south of due west, and the\nNHC forecast is along the southern edge of the guidance, roughly\nbetween the ECMWF model and the skill-baseline Trajectory-CLIPER\n(TCLP) model.\n\nThe new NHC intensity forecast now makes Aletta a remnant low in 36\nhours, but if deep convection doesn't redevelop, that transition\nwill occur on Sunday.  Fast weakening is expected to continue, and\nthe official forecast closely follows the HCCA model and the\nintensity consensus during the first 24-36 hours.  After that, the\nremnant low's winds are based on the GFS and ECMWF forecast wind\nfields.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 15.9N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 15.9N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.9N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/0000Z 15.8N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/0000Z 15.8N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-06-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 09 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern has continued to become better organized during\nthe past several hours. Satellite imagery shows several curved\nbands of deep convection developing around the center while the\nupper-level outflow is gradually improving. Dvorak T-numbers from\nall agencies have increased, and a TAFB classification of T2.5\nsupports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm with 35-kt\nwinds in this advisory.\n\nTropical Storm Bud is expected to be over warm waters and\nembedded within light shear for the next 3 days or so. These\nconditions favor strengthening, which could be even more than what\nis indicated in the NHC forecast given the high RI indices in the\nSHIPS model.  Nevertheless, most of the guidance forecast\nstrengthening, and the official forecast very closely follows the\nHCCA and FSSE intensity models. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening\nshould begin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.\n\nBud is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 9 kt. The\ncyclone is currently steered by the flow around the periphery\nof a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United States and\nnorthern Mexico. However, Bud is expected to reach the western\nportion of the ridge, and then its core should move toward the\nnorthwest and north off the southwestern coast of Mexico and\ntoward the Baja California peninsula. The track guidance is in\nremarkably good agreement, which significantly increases the\nconfidence in the official forecast.\n\nAlthough Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast\nof Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of\nthe coast during the next few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 12.9N 102.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 13.8N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.9N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 16.7N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 18.0N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 19.5N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 21.5N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-06-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n300 AM MDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\nAfter being devoid of thunderstorms for some time, a burst of\ndeep convection developed over the northern semicircle of Aletta.\nThis has probably made the weakening of the cyclone a little less\nrapid than had been occurring over the last day or so.  The current\nintensity estimate is down to 45 kt based on a blend of subjective\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with objective Dvorak\nestimates from UW-CIMSS.  In spite of the recent increase of\nthunderstorm activity, which is thought to be temporary, strong\nshear and marginal SSTs are likely to cause continued weakening and\nAletta is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in a day or so.\nThis is consistent with the intensity model consensus.\n\nThe system continues to move slowly westward, or around 280/5 kt.\nA weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Aletta should\nmaintain this general motion for a few days.  Later in the period,\nsteering currents are forecast to become very weak, and little\nmotion is indicated at days 4 and 5.  By that time, however,\nAletta should be a very weak post-tropical cyclone.  The official\nforecast is similar to the previous one and on the southern side of\nthe track model guidance suite.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 16.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 16.1N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 16.1N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 16.0N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/0600Z 15.9N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/0600Z 15.8N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0600Z 15.6N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0600Z 15.4N 121.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-06-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n400 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\nBud's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized on\nsatellite imagery, with a developing CDO and banding features over\nthe southeastern portions of the circulation.  The current\nintensity is set at 45 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak\nestimate from TAFB.  There is low shear over the storm and the ocean\nwaters are very warm.  These environmental factors should continue\nto prevail for the next few days and Bud will likely become a\nhurricane within a day or so.  The official intensity forecast is a\nblend of the simple and corrected consensus numerical guidance.  As\nnoted earlier there is a possibility of rapid intensification,\nespecially when Bud develops a well-defined inner core, and\nsubsequent NHC forecasts may need to be adjusted higher.  Beyond 72\nhours, gradual weakening should begin as the cyclone approaches the\ncold waters near the Baja California peninsula.\n\nThe motion continues northwestward and is estimated to be about\n310/8 kt.  Bud is being steered by the flow on the southwestern\nperiphery of a mid-level high that covers much of Mexico.  In the\nlatter part of the forecast period, a gradual turn toward the\nnorth-northwest is likely as Bud reaches the western portion of the\nhigh.  This track would keep the tropical cyclone offshore of\nmainland Mexico but move it toward the southern portion of the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula later in the week.  It should be noted that\nthere is significant uncertainty in 5-day position and intensity\nforecasts.\n\nAlthough Bud is forecast to remain well offshore the southwest coast\nof Mexico, large swells should begin to affect that portion of\nthe coast during the next few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 13.4N 102.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 14.5N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.8N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 17.5N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 18.7N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/0600Z 22.0N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-06-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n800 AM PDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\nShortly after 0600Z, a strong burst of deep convection, containing\nvery cold cloud top temperatures of -90C and significant lightning\nactivity, developed northwest of the previously exposed low-level\ncirculation center. The center has since made a jog toward the\nnorthwest closer to the strongest convection. The initial intensity\nhas been decreased to 40 kt, based on average of TAFB current\nintensity (CI) and the current T-number estimates. Although the\ngeneral trend for the next 24 h or so should be a gradual erosion of\nthe deep convection due to the entrainment of drier and more stable\nair and the cyclone moving over SSTs less than 26C. However, there\nwill likely be intermittent bursts of convection that will slow the\nweakening rate and maintain Aletta as a tropical cyclone. By 36 h\nand beyond, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20\nkt, coupled with the aforementioned stabilizing environment, should\ncause all convection to dissipate, resulting in Aletta becoming a\nshallow remnant low pressure system. The new NHC intensity forecast\nis similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA\nand IVCN consensus intensity models.\n\nDespite the recent northwestward jog, the average motion over the\nlast 36 h yields a motion of 280/05 kt, similar to the previous\nadvisory motion.  Aletta is forecast by most of the model guidance\nto move westward to west-northwestward, or around 280/05 kt for the\nnext 24 h or so. After that, a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the\nnorth of the cyclone is expected to build southward slightly,\nforcing the weak and shallow cyclone toward the west-southwest. By\ndays 4 and 5, the system could stall as it comes under the\nincreasing influence of strengthening Tropical Storm Bud, currently\nlocated about 700 nmi to the east-southeast. The official forecast\ntrack is similar to the previous advisory and is in the middle of\nthe track model guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 16.5N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 16.6N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 16.7N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 16.6N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/1200Z 16.4N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/1200Z 16.2N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1200Z 16.0N 120.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1200Z 15.8N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-06-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\nRecent microwave imagery indicate that the inner core of Bud is\nbetter organized with the presence of a mid-level eye feature.\nAlthough Dvorak T-numbers are increasing, none of them support\nhurricane intensity yet. On this basis, the initial intensity\nhas been adjusted upward to 55 kt in this advisory.  The environment\nis quite favorable for strengthening, and most of the rapid\nintensification indexes suggest that this process will occur\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours. This seems more likely now that\nBud's inner core structure is improving.  The official forecast\ncalls for intensification following closely the corrected consensus\nnumerical guidance HCCA. Beyond 72 hours, gradual weakening should\nbegin as the cyclone approaches the cold waters near the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\n315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the flow around the\nperiphery of high pressure system over the western United States.\nIn about 3 days, Bud should reach the western edge of the high, and\nthe cyclone should begin to turn toward the north-northwest and\nthen northward. There is high confidence in the track forecast\nfor the next 3 to 4 days since guidance continues to be in quite\ngood agreement.  This motion should keep the tropical cyclone\noffshore of mainland Mexico, but only a small deviation to the right\nof the track could bring stronger winds to a portion of the coast\nwithin the area between Manzanillo and Cabo Corrientes.  All\ninterests in that area should closely monitor the progress of Bud.\n\nEven if Bud remains well offshore the southwest coast of Mexico,\nlarge swells should affect that portion of the coast during the next\nfew days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 14.7N 103.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.7N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 18.4N 107.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-06-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n200 PM PDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\nDespite southerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, Aletta has\nbeen able to maintain a small cluster of strong convection in the\nnorthwestern quadrant. Recent ASCAT passes missed the now partially\nexposed low-level center and much of the inner-core wind field, but\nthey did manage to capture tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern\nsemicircle. Also, a Mexican Navy automated weather station on\nClarion Island reported a sustained wind of 33 kt and a gust to 47\nkt a few hours ago as an outer band passed over the island. Based on\nthat observation, along with a TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.0/45 kt,\nthe intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.\n\nMicrowave satellite position fixes indicate a motion of about 280/06\nkt since the previous advisory. No significant changes to the\nprevious forecast track were required. The new model guidance\nremains in fair agreement on Aletta moving slowly westward for the\nnext 48-72 h along the southern periphery of a weak low- to\nmid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone.  After that time,\nsteering currents are forecast to collapse, along with Aletta coming\nunder the influence of rapidly strengthening Hurricane Bud currently\nlocated to the east-southeast, which could result in the shallow\ncyclone stalling. The official forecast track is similar to the\nprevious advisory and remains in the middle of the tightly packed\ntrack model guidance.\n\nAlthough the wind shear is forecast to weaken to less than 10 kt\nduring the next 24-36 hours, which would generally favor\nre-strengthening, Aletta will also be moving over sub-26C SSTs and\ninto a drier and more stable airmass. The poor thermodynamics, along\nwith cold-air stratocumulus clouds already being ingested into the\nwestern and southern quadrants of the cyclone, argues for gradual\nweakening to occur over the next day or so, with Aletta degenerating\ninto a remnant low pressure system by Tuesday. A steady spin down of\nthe low is expected during the 72-120 hour period, with the shallow\ncyclone possibly even dissipating on day 5. The official intensity\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows\na blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus intensity models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 16.6N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 16.6N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 16.6N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  12/1800Z 16.4N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/1800Z 16.2N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1800Z 16.1N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1800Z 15.9N 121.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-06-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n400 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\n\nThe cloud pattern of Bud has continued to become better organized,\nand a ragged eye has become apparent intermittently on visible\nimages. T-numbers from TAFB and CIMSS have reached 4.0 on the\nDvorak scale, so Bud has been upgraded to hurricane status with 65-\nkt winds in this advisory.  The environment continues to be quite\nfavorable for strengthening, while the rapid intensification indexes\ncontinue to be high. On this basis, the NHC forecast, which is very\nclose to both the corrected consensus HCCA and FSSE models calls for\nadditional strengthening for the next 24 hours or so. Beyond 48\nhours, a steady state or weakening should begin as the cyclone\napproaches the cold waters near the Baja California peninsula.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion continues to be toward\nthe northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. Bud is being steered by the\nflow around the periphery of a high pressure system over the western\nUnited States. In about 3 days, Bud is expected to reach the western\nedge of the high, and the cyclone should then begin to turn\ntoward the north-northwest and then northward. There is high\nconfidence in the track forecast for the next 3 days since\nguidance continues to be in quite good agreement. After that time,\nthe guidance becomes less reliable, but in general, all models\nbring a weakening tropical cyclone over or near Baja California\npeninsula.\n\nAlthough the core of Bud is expected to pass well off the\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico, the hurricane is accompanied by\nrainbands mainly to the east of the center. These bands have\nthe possibility of producing tropical-storm-force winds along\na portion of the coast.  Consequently, the Government of Mexico\nhas issued a Tropical Storm Watch for a small portion of the coast\nfrom Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 15.3N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 16.4N 105.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 17.2N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 18.0N 107.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 19.7N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  15/1800Z 24.0N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-06-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n800 PM PDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\nAletta is maintaining its sheared structure.  Although cloud tops\nhave warmed over the past few hours, the tropical storm is still\nproducing persistent convection in the northwestern quadrant. Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB have not changed since 6 hours\nago, so the intensity has been held at 40 kt.  No change has been\nmade to the intensity forecast.  Aletta has been moving along a\ntongue of moderately warm water, which may have allowed convection\nto persist up to this point, but the cyclone will soon cross a sharp\nSST gradient and enter into a much more stable environment.  Once\nthat occurs, the cyclone will likely lose all convection and become\na remnant low, gradually spinning down over the course of a few\ndays.  While not explicitly shown in this forecast, it is possible\nthat Aletta will dissipate by the middle to end of the week.\n\nThe tropical storm has been moving toward the west-northwest, or\n285/6 kt, this evening, but a westward motion is expected to resume\novernight.  All of the dynamical models continue to indicate that\nAletta will be steered slowly westward by a mid-level ridge to the\nnorth for the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, a turn toward\nthe west-southwest will likely occur as the low-level tradewinds\nbecome the dominant steering feature.  From day 3 onward, the\ncyclone is expected to become trapped in light low-level flow\nbetween a high pressure system to the northwest and Hurricane Bud to\nthe east, so the NHC forecast shows little to no movement.  The\nofficial track forecast has been adjusted slightly northward for the\nfirst 36 hours due to Aletta's recent short-term west-northwestward\nmotion, but is not significantly changed from the previous advisory\nand remains close to TVCN and HCCA.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 16.8N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 16.9N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 16.9N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 16.7N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/0000Z 16.4N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0000Z 16.2N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0000Z 16.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0000Z 16.0N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-06-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018\n\nSatellite data suggest that Bud is strengthening.  Shortwave\ninfrared images and an SSMIS pass from a few hours ago indicate that\nBud's inner core and banding features are becoming better defined,\nand an eye feature has recently become evident in most satellite\nchannels.  However, deep convection is not yet symmetric with the\nstrongest convection remaining to the east of the center.  The 00Z\nDvorak classifications ranged from 55 to 75 kt, and the initial\nintensity is set to 70 kt, closer to the high end of the range given\nthe improved structure of the inner core during the past several\nhours.\n\nBud is moving northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern side of a\nmid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  This general heading with a\ndecrease in forward speed is forecast during the next few days.\nSome of the models show Bud stalling on Tuesday or Wednesday as the\nsteering currents weaken between the ridge to the north of the\nhurricane and a developing mid- to upper-level low to its west.\nAfter that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to weaken,\nallowing Bud to resume a northwestward to north-northwestward\nmotion toward the Baja California peninsula.  The track model\nguidance is in fairly good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies near\nthe various consensus aids.  This prediction is largely an update of\nthe previous one.\n\nA recent 37 GHz GMI microwave pass indicated a closed ring around\nthe eye, which is often a precursor of rapid intensification.  Based\non this structure and conducive environmental conditions, rapid\nintensification is forecast during the next 24 hours.   This\nforecast though, unlike the previous one, does call for slow\nweakening beyond 24 hours as the expected slow motion of Bud could\ncause cool water to upwell, ending the strengthening trend.  More\nsignificant weakening is predicted to begin in 2 to 3 days when Bud\ntracks over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air\nmass.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance in the short\nterm, given the aforementioned signals of intensification, but falls\nin line with the guidance thereafter.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 16.0N 104.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 16.7N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 17.5N 106.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 18.0N 107.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 18.4N 107.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 19.9N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 21.7N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  16/0000Z 24.1N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-06-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Aletta Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n200 AM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018\n\nDeep convection associated with Aletta has waned overnight, and as a\nresult, objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased.  A\nrecent ASCAT overpass that was very helpful in locating the center\nof Aletta indicated that the cyclone's winds have decreased to\naround 35 kt.  The tropical storm is forecast to weaken while it\nmoves over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more\nstable air mass during the next day or so.  Aletta is expected to\ndegenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours, but this could\noccur sooner if organized deep convection does not redevelop soon.\n\nRecent satellite fixes indicate that the tropical storm is moving\nwest-northwestward at about 5 kt.  The cyclone should turn westward\ntoday, then west-southwestward by Tuesday as it is steered by the\nlow-level tradewind flow.  The low-level flow is expected to become\nquite light as Hurricane Bud moves northwestward off the coast of\nsouthwestern Mexico.  This should cause Aletta's remnants to become\nnearly stationary by mid-week.  The track guidance is in fairly\ngood agreement through 48 hours, but diverges considerably after\nthat time due to the lack of well-defined steering currents.  The\nNHC forecast has been shifted slightly eastward at 48 h and beyond\nto be closer to the various consensus tracks.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 17.0N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 17.0N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 16.9N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  12/1800Z 16.6N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-06-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018\n\nAfter an abrupt strengthening episode around 0300-0500 UTC, Bud\nseems to have at least temporarily leveled off since the eye has\nrecently become less distinct.  The intensity estimate of 90 kt is\nbased on a subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, and ADT\nestimates from UW/CIMSS that were a little higher.  Bud should\nremain in a favorable environment for strengthening through today,\nand gradually cooling water temperatures are expected to induce a\nslow weakening trend thereafter.  The official intensity forecast is\na little above the latest model consensus.  Significantly cooler\nwaters around the southern tip of Baja California should reduce\nBud's intensity below hurricane status before it reaches that land\narea.\n\nThe hurricane tracked a little more westward overnight, but the\ninitial motion is still estimated to be northwest, or 305/9 kt.  A\nweak mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern United States\nis expected to persist for the next few days.  Bud is expected to\nmove along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and turn toward\nthe north-northwest in 1-2 days.  Around that time, the steering\nflow is expected to become quite weak and Bud's forward speed is\nforecast to slow to 3-4 kt.  Later in the forecast period, the\nridge become slightly stronger so Bud should move at least a little\nfaster toward the Baja peninsula.  The official forecast is\nsimilar to the previous one and roughly in the middle of the track\nguidance.\n\nThe 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been reduced slightly based on\ndata from the latest ASCAT overpass.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 16.3N 106.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 17.1N 106.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 17.7N 107.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 18.7N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z 20.4N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  15/0600Z 22.2N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  16/0600Z 24.0N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-06-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Aletta Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n800 AM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018\n\nAletta has been devoid of any significant convection for about 8\nhours due to the cyclone ingesting dry mid- and upper-level air\nalong with an abundance of stable, low-level cold-air stratocumulus\nclouds. The combination of these unfavorable thermodynamic\nconditions and SSTs less than 26C beneath the cyclone should result\nin Aletta degenerating into a remnant low pressure system later\ntoday, possibly as early as the next advisory cycle. The initial\nintensity of 30 kt is based on an average of Dvorak T- and CI-\nnumbers from TAFB, and an assumed spin down from the 35-kt winds\nnoted in 0532 UTC ASCAT data.\n\nMicrowave satellite fixes indicate that Aletta has been moving\nwestward at about 10 kt since the previous advisory. However, this\nis likely just a temporary motion due to the decoupling of the\nlow- and upper-level circulations owing to the loss of convection.\nAs a result, the advisory motion is estimated to be a slower 270/06\nkt. Aletta is expected to move westward today, followed by a turn\ntoward the west-southwest by Tuesday due to the shallow cyclone\nbeing steered by the low-level easterly to northeasterly tradewind\nflow. By days 3 and 4, the steering flow is forecast to weaken\nsignificantly, causing Aletta to possibly stall, due to the remnant\nlow coming under the influence of major Hurricane Bud's expanding\ncirculation. The NHC track guidance is in good agreement on this\ndeveloping track scenario, and the new forecast track is similar to\nthe previous advisory and the consensus models HCCA and TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 16.8N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 16.7N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  12/1200Z 16.5N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0000Z 16.3N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1200Z 16.1N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1200Z 16.0N 120.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/1200Z 16.0N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-06-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 AM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018\n\nThere have been some fluctuations in the amount of deep convection\nsurrounding the ragged eye during the past several hours, but the\noverall trend has been upward. Although the subjective T-numbers\nhave not changed significantly, NHC and UW/CIMMS objective numbers\nhave increased, and support an initial intensity of 105 kt for this\nadvisory.  Bud has the opportunity to gain some additional strength\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours before the environmental conditions\nbecome less conducive.  A faster weakening is expected to occur when\nBud moves over the cooler waters near the Baja California peninsula.\nBy then, Bud is expected to be below hurricane strength.  The\nofficial intensity forecast closely follows the Corrected Consensus\nHCCA model, which has been performing well.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Bud is moving toward the northwest\nor 310 degrees at about 6 kt. The hurricane continues to be steered\nby the weak flow around a subtropical ridge centered over Mexico and\nthe southwestern United States. Once Bud reaches the southwestern\nedge of the ridge in about 24 to 36 hours, it should gradually turn\nnorth-northwestward and then northward toward the Baja California\npeninsula. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one\nand is in between HCCA and the multi-model ensemble.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 16.7N 106.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 19.0N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z 20.7N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  15/1200Z 22.5N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  16/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Aletta","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP022018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022018\n200 PM PDT Mon Jun 11 2018\n\nThe depression has degenerated into a remnant low pressure system\ndue to the lack of any convection during the past 14 hours, and is\nmainly a large swirl of cold-air stratocumulus clouds now. The\ninitial intensity of 30 kt is based on a few 29- to 30-kt wind\nvectors noted in recent 1703Z and 1803Z ASCAT overpasses. Further\nweakening and gradual spin down of the wind field is expected while\nthe cyclone moves slowly west-southwestward over sub-26 deg C waters\nduring the next several days, with dissipation forecast to occur by\nday 5, if not sooner.\n\nThis is the last advisory on this system issued by the National\nHurricane Center.  For additional information on the remnant low\nplease see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\nService...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 16.6N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  12/0600Z 16.4N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  12/1800Z 16.3N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0600Z 16.1N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1800Z 15.9N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1800Z 15.9N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/1800Z 15.9N 119.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018\n\nThe organization of the cloud pattern has improved overall, but the\neye has been fluctuating between clear and obscure.  An average of\nTAFB/SAB subjective T-numbers and much higher objective values from\nUW/CIMSS yield an initial intensity of 105 kt.  Bud still has the\nopportunity to gain some additional strength during the next 12\nhours or so before the environmental conditions become less\nconducive and the cyclone gradually encounters the cooler waters\nnear the Baja California peninsula in about 3 days.  By then, Bud is\nexpected to be below hurricane strength.  The official intensity\nforecast is in between the Corrected Consensus HCCA model, which\nweakens Bud fast, and the SHIPS guidance which shows a more gradual\ndecay.\n\nBud appears to be moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at\nabout 6 kt. The steering pattern is well established while Bud\ncontinues to be embedded within the flow around a subtropical\nridge centered over Mexico and the southwestern United States. Once\nBud reaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 24 to 36\nhours, it should gradually turn north-northwestward and then\nnorthward toward the Baja California peninsula. The NHC forecast is\nnot different from the previous one and is in the middle of\nthe guidance envelope. It is also a little to the west of the\nHCCA corrected consensus and the FSSE, which are among the rightmost\nof the models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 17.0N 107.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 18.2N 108.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 19.0N 108.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 19.7N 109.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  15/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  16/1800Z 28.5N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-06-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 PM MDT Mon Jun 11 2018\n\nBud has been sending mixed signals this evening regarding its\nintensity.  On one hand, the eye has been warming and become more\ndistinct in infrared satellite imagery.  On the other hand, the\ncentral dense overcast has been shrinking, and temperatures of the\nconvective cloud tops have been warming as well.  Subjective Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are T5.5/102 kt while the objective ADT\npeaked at 6.5/127 kt.  The initial intensity is raised to 110 kt as\na compromise of these values.\n\nBud appears to be going through a trochoidal oscillation, but the\nlonger-term motion estimate is northwestward, or 315/6 kt.  The\nhurricane is moving between a large mid-level high centered near\nthe U.S./Mexico border and Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta, but with\nthe ridge directly to its north, Bud's forward speed is expected to\nslow down to 4-5 kt for the next 48 hours.  After that time, a\ndeveloping mid- to upper-level trough off the California coast will\ncause Bud to turn northward and accelerate across the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula.  The track models are tightly clustered, with\nthe only subtle outlier being the ECMWF, which is a little slower\nand to the west of the other models.  The NHC forecast is closest\nto the TVCX multi-model consensus and not too different from the\nprevious forecast.\n\nSince vertical shear is forecast to remain low for the next 3 days\nor so and there is plenty of atmospheric moisture, the biggest\nlimiting factor on intensification appears to be low oceanic heat\ncontent.  Bud has reached an area where waters of 26C or warmer\nonly extend 20 meters or less below the ocean surface.  Upwelling\nof colder water is likely due to the hurricane's expected slow\nmotion, and the colder water will likely induce a rather quick\nweakening trend.  The HCCA and Florida State Superensemble show the\nmost dramatic drop-off in winds, while the SHIPS model maintains\nBud's intensity for another 24 hours or so before showing much\nweakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is between these two\nscenarios, with Bud expected to fall below hurricane intensity near\nthe 48-hour mark (late Wednesday).  Continued weakening is expected\nas Bud approaches and moves across the southern Baja California\nPeninsula, and the cyclone is likely to be a remnant low over\nthe Mexican state of Sonora by day 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 17.6N 107.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 18.1N 107.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 18.8N 108.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 19.4N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 20.2N 109.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 22.4N 110.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  16/0000Z 25.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  17/0000Z 30.0N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-06-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018\n\nBud has been maintaining a well-defined eye for the past several\nhours but recent satellite images suggest some loss of definition.\nThe current intensity is set to 115 kt in agreement with a Dvorak\ncurrent intensity estimate from TAFB.  Even though Bud is currently\na powerful hurricane, it is going to pass over ocean waters of\nprogressively decreasing heat content and lower SSTs.  Therefore,\nweakening is likely.  Gradual weakening should commence later\ntoday, but by Wednesday the rate of weakening should increase as\nthe ocean becomes significantly less conducive.  The official\nintensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus guidance\nIVCN, however the corrected/smart consensus models HCCA and the\nFlorida State University Superensemble show a more rapid decline in\nintensity than shown here.  Bud is likely to degenerate into a\nremnant low by the time it reaches mainland Mexico.\n\nBud's movement has continued to exhibit a trochoidal oscillation,\nwhich is typical of major hurricanes.  Smoothing through these\ntrochoidal wobbles gives an estimated motion that is the same as in\nthe previous advisory, or 315/6 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is\nessentially unchanged.  Bud is moving between a large mid-level\nanticyclone centered near the United States/Mexico border and the\ncirculation of Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta.  Over the next day or\nso, increased ridging to the north of Bud should result in a\nslowing of the forward motion of the tropical cyclone.  Later, a\ntrough off the southern California and northern Baja California\nPeninsula coasts should cause Bud to turn to the north with some\nincrease in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to\nthe previous one, and in good agreement with the latest multi-model\nconsensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 18.1N 108.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 18.5N 108.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 19.9N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 23.4N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  16/0600Z 26.7N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  17/0600Z 31.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-06-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 AM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018\n\nSatellite imagery indicate that Bud peaked in intensity around 0600\nUTC, and cloud tops surrounding the well-defined, 20-nmi-diameter\neye have been steadily warming since then. The intensity estimate of\n110 kt is based on a blend of TAFB T- and CI-numbers, and a UW-CIMSS\nADT estimate of 110 kt.\n\nBud has continued to make a trochoidal motion in the general\ndirection of 320/05 kt during the past 6 hours. Overall, no\nsignificant changes were required to the previous advisory track due\nto the latest NHC model guidance remaining very tightly packed. Bud\nis forecast to move slowly in a north-northwestward direction around\na large mid-level ridge extending westward across central Mexico for\nthe next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north\nby late Thursday. On the forecast track, Bud is expected to move\nacross Baja California Sur as a tropical storm on Thursday. The\nofficial track forecast is essentially just an extension of the\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the various\nconsensus models.\n\nAlthough Bud has an impressive upper-level outflow pattern and is\nforecast to remain in very low wind shear conditions for the next 48\nhours, the cyclone will be moving over cooling SSTs of 26C or less\nand ocean heat content values near zero. This should result in\nsignificant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone, which may already be\nhappening based on erosion of the northern eyewall noted in recent\nSSMI/S microwave satellite imagery.  Due to the expected poor\noceanic conditions and upwelling, rapid weakening is forecast to\nbegin shortly and continue through the remainder of the forecast\nperiod. By 96 hours, Bud is expected to be inland or near the\nwestern coast of mainland Mexico, and likely have dissipated by 120\nhours over northwestern Mexico. However, a 120h point has been\npriovided for continuity purposes. The official intensity forecast\nis close to a blend of the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA,\nand FSSE.\n\nBased on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm\nWatch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the\nnext advisory package.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 18.4N 108.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 18.9N 108.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 19.6N 109.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 21.6N 109.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 24.4N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 28.5N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  17/1200Z 32.1N 111.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-06-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018\n\nBud has slowed down since the previous advisory and is now crawling\nnorthwestward at 325/03 kt. No changes were required to the previous\nforecast track due to the recent NHC model guidance remaining\ntightly packed and in excellent agreement on both track and forward\nspeed. Bud should turn toward the north-northwest later this evening\nand continue that motion for another 24 h or so. After that, the\ncyclone is expected to turn northward at a slightly faster forward\nspeed on Thursday and Friday, passing over the southern portion of\nthe Baja California peninsula as a weakening tropical storm by\nFriday morning. By Saturday, Bud or its remnants are forecast to\nmove inland over western mainland Mexico, and dissipate over\nnorthwestern Mexico by Sunday. Although it is unlikely that the\nlow-level circulation will be able to make it across the high\ncoastal mountains of western Mexico, a 120-h forecast point has been\nprovided for continuity purposes, and would be more representative\nof the location of Bud's remnant mid-level circulation. The new NHC\nforecast track is basically on top of the previous advisory track,\nand remains close to a blend of the various consensus models.\n\nBud's slow motion over already marginally warm SSTs and near zero\nupper-ocean heat content is likely producing significant cold\nupwelling beneath the cyclone, a negative factor that is forecast to\nworsen over the next 48 hours. The result should be continued rapid\nweakening right up until the time Bud approaches southern Baja\nCalifornia on Thursday. Expected land interaction thereafter will\nfurther weaken the cyclone, and Bud could become a remnant low or\neven dissipate before it reaches mainland Mexico in 96 hours. The\nofficial intensity forecast is close to a blend of the intensity\nconsensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.\n\nBased on the forecast track and 34-kt wind radii, a Tropical Storm\nWatch could be required for portions of Baja California Sur on the\nnext advisory package.\n\nBud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and\nnortheastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest\nover the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash\nflooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy\nrainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather\nservice office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 19.9N 109.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 22.0N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 25.2N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 29.3N 110.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  17/1800Z 35.0N 110.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-06-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 PM MDT Tue Jun 12 2018\n\nUpwelled cold water is taking its toll on Bud.  The hurricane no\nlonger has an eye, and the deep convection is favoring the southern\nside of the circulation.  Satellite intensity estimates are\ndecreasing precipitously, with CI numbers ranging from 4.3/72 kt\nfrom the UW-CIMSS ADT to 5.0/90 kt from TAFB.  The advisory\nintensity is set at 80 kt, near the midpoint of this range.\n\nBud is situated almost due south of a mid-level high anchored over\nNew Mexico, which is only allowing the hurricane to creep\nnorth-northwestward (330 degrees) at 3 kt.  The ridge is not\nexpected to move much during the next couple of days, but a\ndeepening trough extending from California southward should cause\nBud to gradually gain speed and turn toward the north by 48 hours.\nAfter 48 hours, the trough is forecast to move inland and push the\nridge to the east, allowing Bud to accelerate northward over the\nBaja California Peninsula and northwestern Mexico on days 3 and 4.\nThe track guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC forecast is\nvery close to the TVCX multi-model consensus.  This forecast is\nalong the previous track for the first 48 hours and then slightly to\nthe east on days 3 and 4.\n\nBud will be moving over even colder waters in the coming days,\nwhich will zap the hurricane of its energy and cause it to steadily\nweaken as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula.  The updated\nNHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous forecast during\nthe first 36 hours to account for the lower initial intensity, and\nit is fairly close to the IVCN intensity consensus.  Bud is likely\nto weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and then become a\ntropical depression after crossing the Baja California Peninsula.\n\nDespite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is anticipated to be a\ntropical storm when it reaches southern Baja California Sur in 48\nhours, and the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm\nWatch from Santa Fe to La Paz.\n\nBud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and\nnortheastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest\nover the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash\nflooding across those areas. For further information on the heavy\nrainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather\nservice office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 18.7N 108.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 19.3N 108.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 20.2N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 25.9N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 32.5N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-06-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Bud Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018\n\nBud continues to be adversely affect by cooler waters and\ndecreasing oceanic heat content.  The eye has disappeared from\ngeostationary imagery, and the inner core convection has been\neroded.  Using a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak\nestimates, the current intensity is set at 65 kt for this advisory.\nBud should encounter even cooler waters over the next day or so,\nwhich should result in additional weakening.  The official\nintensity forecast is similar to the latest model consensus and to\nthe DSHIPS output.  Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is\nstill anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern\nBaja California Sur in about 48 hours.\n\nA mid-level high centered over the southwestern United States has\nbeen partly blocking Bud's north-northwestward advance and the\ncurrent motion of the cyclone is about 330/4 kt.  A mid-level trough\napproaching southern California and the northern Baja California\npeninsula should cause Bud to move faster toward the north in a\ncouple of days.  Not much change has been made to the previous\nofficial forecast, and the new NHC forecast is close the HFIP\nCorrected Consensus Approach, HCCA, track.\n\nBud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and\nnortheastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest\nover the weekend, resulting in significant rains and possible flash\nflooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy\nrainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather\nservice office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 19.1N 108.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 21.6N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  17/0600Z 34.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-06-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 AM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018\n\nBud has continued to rapidly weaken due to significant upwelling of\ncolder water beneath the cyclone, resulting in a pronounced erosion\nof the deep convection in the inner-core region. Sea-surface\ntemperature data from U-Miami RSMAS indicate that Bud has churned\nup a cold wake that is least 3 deg C cooler than the surrounding\nocean temperatures. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on\naverage of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.\n\nBud has been wobbling slowly about a north-northwestward track of\nabout 340/04 kt for the past 12 h, and that is the motion used for\nthis advisory.  A deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern\nUnited States that has been partly blocking Bud's poleward trek is\nexpected to slowly weaken and shift eastward during the next 72 h,\ngiving way to an approaching mid-latitude trough. The increasing\nsoutherly flow between the ridge and the approaching trough will\ngradually induce a more northward component of motion by Thursday,\nfollowed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Friday. No change\nhas been made to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new\nadvisory is similar to the previous one and lies along the eastern\nedge of the model guidance envelope.\n\nNow that Bud has weakened to a tropical storm, significant upwelling\nbeneath the cyclone should abate somewhat. However, Bud will be\nmoving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6-12 h, which will act to\nkeep the atmosphere only marginally conducive for the formation of\nsignificant convection despite the vertical wind shear remaining\nquite favorable at only around 5 kt. A gradual spin down of Bud's\ncirculation is expected until landfall occurs on southern Baja\nCalifornia Sur, followed by more significant erosion of the wind\nfield on Friday due to cyclone interacting with the mountainous\nterrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico. The new\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the\nDecay-SHIPS intensity model, and is slightly below the intensity\nconsensus models. Despite Bud's expected weakening, the cyclone is\nstill anticipated to be a tropical storm when it reaches southern\nBaja California Sur in 36-48 hours.\n\nBud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and\nnortheastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest\nover the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible\nflash flooding across those areas.  For further information on the\nheavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local\nweather service office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 19.4N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 21.1N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 22.4N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 24.2N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 29.3N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  17/1200Z 35.5N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-06-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018\n\nBud has continued to steadily weaken as deep convection has been\nnon-existent in the inner-core region for more than 6 hours now. A\ncouple of recent ASCAT overpasses indicated a few 42-kt wind vectors\nin the northeastern quadrant.  Even allowing for some undersampling\nof the small wind field, those data only support winds of about\n45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory.\n\nBud has been moving in a steadier north-northwestward motion of\nabout 345/05 kt over the past 6 h. The blocking ridge to the north\nof Bud is beginning to weaken and shift slowly eastward. This trend\nis expected to continue through the remainder of the forecast period\nas a mid-/upper-level trough approaches Baja California from the\nnorthwest. Southerly flow between the ridge and the approaching\ntrough will gradually increase and induce a northward component of\nmotion by Thursday, followed by a gradual turn toward the\nnorth-northeast and northeast on Friday. The latest NHC model\nguidance remains tightly packed about the previous few forecast\ntracks, so significant changes were required on this advisory\npackage.\n\nBud will be moving over sub-26C SSTs within the next 6 hours or so,\nwhich will act to inhibit inner-core convection from redeveloping,\nresulting in a slow spin down and weakening of the cyclone. However,\nthere will be enough available instability in outer portion of the\ncirculation to help maintain a convective banding structure, which\nshould be sufficient to maintain Bud as a tropical storm until it\nreaches Baja California in about 36 hours. After that, interaction\nwith the mountainous terrain of Baja California Sur and northwestern\nMexico should promote more significant weakening, and Bud is\nexpected to become a remnant low or dissipate shortly after 72 hours\nwhen the system is inland over northwestern Mexico.\n\nBud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and\nnortheastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest\nover the weekend, resulting in significant rainfall and possible\nflash flooding across those areas.  For further information on the\nheavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local\nweather service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 19.9N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 20.7N 109.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 21.8N 109.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 23.3N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA\n 48H  15/1800Z 25.6N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  16/1800Z 31.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-06-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RRA\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  18...Retransmitted\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 PM MDT Wed Jun 13 2018\n\nAfter steadily weakening today, Bud's intensity appears to have\nleveled off for now.  The cloud pattern of the tropical storm has\ngenerally changed little during the past several hours, with deep\nconvection mostly confined to a curved band that wraps around the\neastern half of the circulation.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated that\nthe maximum winds were around 45 kt, and since the system has\ngenerally changed little in structure since that time, the initial\nintensity is held at that value.  This intensity estimate is also\nin agreement with an average of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from\nTAFB and SAB.\n\nBud is moving north-northwestward at 6 kt on the southwestern side\nof a mid-level ridge over Mexico and the southwestern U.S.  This\ngeneral motion is expected during the next 24 hours or so, and that\nshould take Bud across the southern portion of Baja California Sur\nby late Thursday.  After that time, a trough approaching the\ntropical storm should cause the system to accelerate to the north\nand north-northeast across the Gulf of California and over mainland\nMexico.  The models are in very good agreement, and only small\nadjustments were made to the previous track forecast.\n\nGradual weakening is expected to resume soon as Bud moves over\ncooler SSTs and into a more stable air mass on its approach to Baja\nCalifornia Sur.  Once Bud moves inland over mainland Mexico, the\nsurface circulation will likely dissipate and even though a 72-h\nposition is provided below, it is unlikely that Bud will survive\nthat long due to the rugged terrain.  The NHC intensity forecast\nfollows the trend in the model guidance, and is generally an update\nof the previous one.\n\nBud's remnant moisture plume is expected to spread northward and\nnortheastward into northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest\non Friday and Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and\npossible flash flooding across those areas.  For further information\non the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued by your\nlocal weather service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 20.5N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 21.4N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 22.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 24.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 26.8N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  17/0000Z 33.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":19,"Date":"2018-06-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018\n\nBud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds,\nand a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the\nnorth of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers\nfrom all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the\ninitial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT\ndata is available over Bud tonight.\n\nThe cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to\nincrease, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja\nCalifornia Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to\ncontinue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than\nindicated in the forecast.\n\nBud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward\nat 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over\nMexico and the southwestern U.S.  The southerly flow ahead of an\napproaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some\nincrease in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC\nforecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48\nhours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the\ncyclone.\n\nDespite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is\nexpected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern\nMexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,\nresulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across\nthose areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,\nplease see products issued by your local weather service office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 22.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 23.8N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":20,"Date":"2018-06-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018\n\nBud's overall structure and convective pattern have changed little\nsince the previous advisory, with the tropical storm consisting of\nmainly a large swirl of low clouds and fragmented cyclonically\ncurved bands of moderate convection. Despite this unimpressive\nsatellite appearance, Bud is still producing tropical-storm-force\nwinds in the the convective band in the northern semicircle. A\nMexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Lucas\nrecently reported a 2-minute average wind of 39 kt and a gust to 53\nkt, and also reported 36-kt winds for a 5-minute period shortly\nafter 1200 UTC. The observing site has also recorded a pressure of\n1004.5 mb thus far. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity\nis being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory, and the central\npressure is estimated to be 1000 mb.\n\nBud has a broad inner-core wind field and a small-scale vortex has\nbeen rotating counter-clockwise within the larger cyclonic gyre.\nAfter smoothing through all the wobbles of the center, a motion\nof 345/06 kt is computed over the past 18 hours. No significant\nchanges were made to the previous track forecast. The model guidance\nis tightly packed around the previous advisory track and remains in\nexcellent agreement that Bud will gradually turn northward during\nthe next 36 hours around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge\nlocated across north-central Mexico. A turn toward the\nnorth-northeast is expected by 48 hours as the steering flow becomes\nmore southwesterly ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, which\nwill also act to accelerate Bud. The new NHC forecast track is just\na tad to the west of the previous track through 24 hours, and lies\nalong the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.\n\nDuring the next 24 hours, Bud will be moving over cool waters and\ninteracting with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja\nCalifornia, which should result in a gradual erosion of the deep\nconvection and spin down of the circulation. Some enhanced wind flow\nin the northeastern quadrant due to funneling between Bud's center\nand the higher terrain of mainland Mexico is possible once Bud's\ncenter emerges over the Gulf of California in 24 hours. For that\nreason, Bud is being maintained as a tropical depression until the\nsecond landfall occurs in about 36 hours. After landfall, rapid\nweakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high\nterrain of mainland Mexico.\n\nDespite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is\nexpected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern\nMexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,\nresulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across\nthose areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,\nplease see products issued by your local weather service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 21.7N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 22.8N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 24.6N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 27.0N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 29.4N 110.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":21,"Date":"2018-06-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Bud's\nwind field and convective pattern have changed little during the\npast 6 hours. Some new modest convective banding has developed in\nthe inner-core region, but overall cloud pattern remains primarily\na large swirl of low clouds. Some of the convective bands in the\nnorthern semicircle have been bringing stronger winds aloft based\non surface obs Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of\nCabo San Lucas where sustained winds of 50 kt and a gust to 60 kt\nhave been observed. However, those winds may have been enhanced by\nlocal terrain. Closer to the surface, a Mexican CONAGUA weather\nstation in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 34\nkt and a gust to 41 kt. Based on these data, Bud's intensity remains\nat 40 kt.\n\nBud has maintained a steady motion of 345/06 kt. No changes were\nrequired to the previous forecast track. The model guidance remains\nin excellent agreement that Bud should turn northward by 12 h while\ncrossing over the southern Baja California peninsula, and emerge\nover the warmer waters of the Gulf of California by Friday\nafternoon. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a large\nsubtropical ridge oriented east-to-west across north-central Mexico,\na turn toward the north-northeast and northeast is anticipated by\n36 hours and beyond. The new NHC advisory track is similar to the\nprevious forecast track, and remains near the eastern edge of the\nmodel guidance suite.\n\nBud's intensity will likely change little during the next 12 hours\nor so. By 24 hours, however, interaction with the mountainous\nterrain of southern Baja California should disrupt the circulation,\ninducing a steady weakening of the wind field. Due to the waters of\nthe Gulf of California being around 27 deg C, some convective\nbanding could persist in the northeastern quadrant and some\nenhancement of wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to\nfunneling could occur. For those reasons, Bud has been maintained as\na tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 30\nhours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours\nis expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico.\n\nDespite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is\nexpected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern\nMexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,\nresulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across\nthose areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,\nplease see products issued by your local weather service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 22.2N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 23.5N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  15/1800Z 25.6N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  16/0600Z 28.0N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  16/1800Z 30.3N 109.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-06-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018\n\nOvernight scatterometer data indicate that the circulation of the\nsystem was open on the northwestern side.  High-resolution GOES-16\n1-min visible data indicate that the low is now closed, with a\nwell-enough defined circulation center.  Since there is plenty of\nbanded convection, this system is being designated as a tropical\ndepression, and the initial wind speed of 30 kt is based off the\novernight scatterometer data.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 325/5 kt.  A weak\nmid-level ridge over Mexico is forecast to break down by tomorrow,\nleaving the depression in an area of light steering currents.  Much\nof the model guidance linger the system just south of the coast of\nMexico for the next couple of days until the cyclone gets drawn\nnorthward into a larger trough currently seen over the western Gulf\nof Mexico.  There is considerable uncertainty in the timing of this\npoleward motion, however, with the UKMET, HMON, and COAMPS-TC models\nfaster than the rest of the guidance.  This seems like a pretty\nclear case of staying near the model consensus, given the weak\nsteering flow that makes it nearly impossible to choose one model\nover another one.  Thus, the official forecast shows a slow\nnorthward motion, near the eastern Pacific model consensus TVCE, and\nit should be emphasized that the forecast timing of landfall is\nsubject to large changes in the future.\n\nThe system is not particularly well organized at the moment, with a\nfew swirls seen in the visible imagery rotating around the larger\ngyre.  After the low consolidates, light-to-moderate shear with\nvery warm waters, and high mid-level humidity should lead to steady\nintensification.  This is a tricky forecast, however, since land is\nso close to the north, which would prevent much strengthening.  The\nofficial forecast is a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance\nand the regional hurricane guidance, a bit lower than the model\nconsensus since the HWRF keeps the cyclone well offshore (unlike\nthe official prediction), leading to a stronger storm.\n\nIt has been an active early part of the eastern Pacific season.\nThis is the 2nd earliest 4th tropical cyclone on record in the\nbasin during the satellite era (1966-present), only 6 hours behind\nthe previous record in 1974.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.5N 100.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.1N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 16.3N 100.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 16.7N 100.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 17.1N 100.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  18/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":22,"Date":"2018-06-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018\n\nBud is skirting the southern coast of the Baja California\nPeninsula.  There have been a few observations of tropical-storm-\nforce winds near Cabo San Lucas earlier this evening.  Since that\ntime, the increasing interaction with the terrain of southern Baja\nCalifornia Sur has likely decreased its intensity slightly. In\naddition, convection is limited to a curved band that is about 100 n\nmi north of the center.  Thus the initial intensity is lowered to 35\nkt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.\n\nAfter moving just west of due north for much of the day, Bud has\nmade a jog to the north-northeast over the past few hours.  This has\ndelayed landfall over southern Baja California Sur this evening.\nTrack guidance remains in excellent agreement on Bud resuming a\nnorth-northwestward track over the next 12 hours, taking the center\nacross the southern Baja California Sur overnight. Bud is then\nexpected to gradually accelerate as it turns northward and then\nnorth-northeastward on Friday over the central Gulf of California\nas it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Bud\nis then expected to make a second landfall over the Mexican state of\nSonora by Friday evening.\n\nThe storm should maintain its intensity overnight as the interaction\nwith Baja California Sur is offset by the warmer waters of the Gulf\nof California, with these warmer waters likely supporting convective\nbands in the northeast quadrant. In addition, funneling in the\nGulf of California could cause Bud to maintain tropical storm\nstatus for a little longer.  By 24 hours, interaction with the\nterrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to weaken to a tropical\ndepression before landfall over Sonora.  Thereafter, the high\nterrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to become a remnant low\nby 36 hours, and dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner.\n\nAlthough Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture\nplume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into\nnorthwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and\nSaturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash\nflooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy\nrainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather\nservice office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 23.1N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi/Latto\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-06-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 14 2018\n\nTropical Depression Four-E remains very disorganized.  Last-light\nvisible imagery showed that multiple low-level swirls are rotating\naround a mean center.  IR imagery and radar data from the Mexican\nradar in Acapulco indicate that deep convection is largely limited\nto a broken band wrapping around the eastern half of the depression,\nwith only a single burst of deep convection recently observed near\nthe estimated center.  Given the disorganized nature of the\ndepression, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt, though it\nis possible this is generous.\n\nLittle change has been made to the intensity forecast.  Although\nSSTs exceed 30 deg C along the forecast track, moderate vertical\nwind shear, close proximity to land, and the lack of an inner core\nshould limit the intensification rate.  Rapid weakening is likely\nfollowing landfall, and the system is now forecast to dissipate\nwithin 96 h.  The official forecast remains near the corrected\nconsensus aid HCCA.\n\nThe disorganized nature of the depression makes it difficult to\nidentify and track a surface center, so the initial position and\nmotion estimates are very uncertain.  All of the global models\nindicate that the system will meander near the coast of Mexico for\nthe next couple of days, ultimately drifting northward toward land.\nThe NHC forecast is very close to a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the\nprevious track advisory.  It is worth noting that confidence in both\nthe track and intensity forecast is low.  It is possible that the\nsurface center could reform one or more times over the next couple\nof days, either bringing the system inland sooner than currently\nforecast or keeping it over water longer than expected.  Large\nchanges to the intensity or track forecasts may be required in\nfuture advisories.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 15.4N 100.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 15.6N 100.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 15.8N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 15.9N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 16.2N  99.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":23,"Date":"2018-06-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018\n\nThe effect of the terrain of Baja California Sur and the increasing\nshear is disrupting Bud's structure. Water vapor images show a\nmid-level center moving fast to the northeast, while low cloud\nmotions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level\ncenter has been left behind over or near Baja.  The low-level\ncirculation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak\nconvective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of\nCalifornia and northwestern Mexico.  An earlier ASCAT pass showed a\nfew 35-kt wind vectors within a very small area over water to the\neast of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept\nat 35 kt in this advisory. Given the hostile environment, weakening\nis anticipated, and Bud is forecast to become a remnant low in about\n24 hours, and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of\nSonora.\n\nNow that the low-level center is becoming elongated, the initial\nmotion is more difficult to ascertain. The best estimate is toward\nthe north or 355 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is already embedded\nwithin the southerly flow along the western side of a high\npressure ridge.  This persistent pattern should steer Bud toward the\nnorth until dissipation. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the\nmulti-model consensus.\n\nSince the tropical-storm-force winds are limited to a small area to\nthe east of the center, the Government of Mexico discontinued the\nwatches and warnings for Baja California Sur, and kept the watch for\na portion of the mainland.\n\nAlthough Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture\nplume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into\nnorthwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest today and on\nSaturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash\nflooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy\nrainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather\nservice office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 24.6N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-06-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018\n\nThe center of the depression has been difficult to locate, although\nGOES-16 infrared satellite images and radar data from Acapulco\nsuggest that the system as a whole has not moved very much.  Deep\nconvection has increased over the past few hours, but it bears\nlittle association with the estimated center and is focused\nprimarily where low-level convergence is maximized near the coast.\nAlthough some strengthening is possible over the next couple of\ndays, moderate northerly shear and the cyclone's proximity to land\nwill likely limit the amount of intensification that can occur.\nThe SHIPS guidance only shows modest strengthening, and the global\nmodels don't really deepen the low much, if any, before it moves\ninland.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS\nand HCCA models and is a little lower than the previous forecast at\n48 h.  A 72-hour point is provided inland for continuity, but the\ncyclone could dissipate before that time.\n\nThe depression is currently stationary in a region absent of\nsteering currents.  However, as a low- to mid-level trough moves\nnorthwestward over the Gulf of Mexico toward Texas in the coming\ndays, that feature should cause the depression to drift\nnortheastward and then northward, moving inland over southern Mexico\nbetween 48-72 hours.  The new NHC forecast is slightly east of the\nprevious one, following the preponderance of the available guidance.\n\nAs noted before, there is lower-than-normal confidence in both the\ntrack and intensity forecasts.  Changes to the forecast, as well as\nmodifications to the warned areas, could be required in subsequent\nadvisories if the location and size of the cyclone become clearer.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 15.3N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 15.4N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 15.5N  99.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 15.8N  99.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 16.2N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 16.9N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":24,"Date":"2018-06-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Bud Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018\n\nBud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level\nclouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to\nthe northwest of the center.  Assuming gradual weakening since the\nASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with\nthose winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of\nthe center.  The shear is expected to remain strong through\nlandfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours\nand then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by\nearly Saturday.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue\nmoving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge\nto the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its\nwest.\n\nAlthough the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate\non Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to\nspread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the\nsouthwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall\nand possible flash flooding across those areas. For further\ninformation on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued\nby your local weather service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan/McElroy\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-06-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018\n\nRadar data from Acapulco, plus satellite and microwave imagery,\nindicate that the depression has either reformed and/or is moving\nslowly toward the north-northeast.  Overall, the satellite\npresentation has improved over the past several hours, with a large\nband of convection in the southeastern quadrant.  The initial wind\nspeed remains 30 kt for this advisory, and perhaps scatterometer\ndata will give us a better look at the wind field this afternoon.\n\nSince the center has shifted to the north-northeast, the timing of\nlandfall along the coast of Mexico has accelerated, with the bulk of\nthe guidance now suggesting a Saturday landfall rather than Sunday.\nThe official forecast now goes with the faster scenario, close to a\ncluster of the GFS ensemble mean and HMON models and the eastern\nPacific track consensus aid TVCE.  While the environmental\nconditions still appear to be conducive for strengthening, the\ndepression has less time to intensify because of the faster landfall\ntiming.  Consequently, the intensity forecast is reduced from the\nprevious one, but is a little higher than the model consensus.\n\nAlthough this system is expected to have only a low wind threat,\nthere is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to\nmoist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre\nmountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office\nfor more details.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 15.8N  99.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 16.1N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 16.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 16.8N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  17/1200Z 17.2N  98.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Bud","Adv":25,"Date":"2018-06-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP032018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nPost-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018\n300 PM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018\n \nBud has been without organized deep convection since around 0600\nUTC, and is now a remnant low. An earlier ASCAT-B pass around 1640\nUTC showed an area of 30-35 kt winds well east of the center off the\ncoast between Altata and Topolobampo, but some of these winds could\nhave been topographically enhanced. The initial intensity remains 30\nkt for this final advisory. The remnant low should gradually weaken\nand then dissipate shortly after landfall.\n \nASCAT data and visible imagery suggest that the initial motion is a\nbit to the left of previous estimates, with the current estimate\n355/09. The remnant low should continue moving northward through\ndissipation between a mid-level ridge to the east and an approaching\nlongwave trough to the west.\n \nAlthough the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate\non Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to\nspread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the\nsouthwestern U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant\nrainfall and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further\ninformation on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued\nby your local weather service office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  15/2100Z 25.9N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  16/0600Z 27.3N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-06-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Carlotta is slowly getting better\norganized, with lots of banding features.   ASCAT data indicated\npeak winds of near 35 kt, close to the coast of Mexico, and this\nwill be the initial wind speed, matching the latest Dvorak estimates\nfrom TAFB/SAB.\n\nRadar data from Acapulco suggest that Carlotta hasn't moved a lot\nin the past few hours, and continues moving slowly to the northeast.\nThe storm should get steered in that general direction through\nlandfall early tomorrow due to the influences of a large trough\nover the western Gulf of Mexico.  Little change was made to the\nofficial track forecast, except the landfall is about 6 hours\nsooner. Carlotta doesn't have much time left to intensify, but could\nstrengthen a little more before the small cyclone quickly dissipates\nover Mexico.\n\nAlthough this system is expected to have only a low wind threat,\nthere is a significant risk of life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca due to\nmoist southwesterly flow intersecting the southern Sierra Madre\nmountains. Please see products issued by your local weather office\nfor more details.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 16.1N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 16.4N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 16.9N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-06-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 15 2018\n\nCarlotta remains a compact tropical storm with deep convection\nconfined to a region of about 75 n mi from the center.  Although\nthe convection is a little stronger than earlier today, the Dvorak\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 2.5/35 kt.\nTherefore, the initial wind speed is held at that value.\n\nAfter moving northward to northeastward throughout the day, Carlotta\nhas now stalled and the latest satellite and radar images indicate\nthat the system is drifting to the southeast.  The models insist\nthat a northeastward motion should resume soon, however, and all of\nthe guidance show Carlotta moving inland over southern Mexico by\nSaturday afternoon.  The NHC official track forecast is a little\nslower than the previous one, due to the initial motion and\nposition, and lies close to the various consensus aids.\n\nCarlotta could strengthen slightly before landfall, due to the\ninfluences of very warm SSTs and moderate shear, but a quick demise\nis expected once the system moves inland.  Even though a 24-h\nforecast position is shown below, most of the models dissipate\nCarlotta by then.\n\nThe main threat from Carlotta is the heavy rainfall and the\nassociated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over\nthe southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The significant\nrainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting\nthe southern Sierra Madre mountains.  For details, please see\nproducts issued by your local weather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 15.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 16.4N  98.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 16.9N  98.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-06-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018\n\nA surprise during the midnight shift. Tiny Carlotta is stronger and\nis not moving as anticipated.\n\nSatellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is better organized\nwith a well defined cyclonically curved band wrapping around a\nsmall area of convection near the center. T-numbers from TAFB,\nSAB and UW/CIMSS are unanimously 3.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this\nbasis, the initial intensity has been adjusted upward to 45 kt.\nASCAT missed it this time.  Depending how long Carlotta remains\nnearly stationary over water, some additional strengthening could\noccur. Once it moves inland, if at all, rapid weakening is\nanticipated.\n\nThe center is difficult to locate, but it has to be very\nnear the given position, since the cyclone has been meandering\nduring the past several hours. The track forecast is highly\nuncertain and I mean highly uncertain. Deterministic runs of the\nglobal models have failed miserably in forecasting the track of\nCarlotta, at least in the very short term. In the earlier 00 UTC\nguidance, most of the NHC trackers moved the cyclone northeastward.\nHowever, at 06 UTC, most of the available trackers changed and now\nmove the cyclone toward the west-northwest along the coast of\nMexico. This shift in track also includes HCCA and HWRF models. The\nGFS, ECMWF and UK models quickly dissipate Carlotta, so most of the\nconsensus are not available at 06 UTC.  Given the uncertainty in the\nforecast, the NHC forecast calls for little motion in the next 12\nhours, and then a gradual northward track toward the coast within\nthe warning area. Although this is a change from the previous NHC\nforecast, it is not necessary a change in the warnings.\n\nDespite the changes in track tonight, the impacts have not changed.\nThe main threat from Carlotta continues to be the heavy rainfall and\nthe associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides\nover the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The significant\nrainfall threat is enhanced by moist southwesterly flow intersecting\nthe southern Sierra Madre mountains.  For details, please see\nproducts issued by your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 15.8N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 16.0N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 16.7N  99.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 17.5N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-06-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018\n \nSatellite images and radar images from Acapulco Mexico indicate\nthat the overall organization of the storm has changed little over\nthe past several hours.  The intensity estimate remains at 45 kt in\nagreement with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.\nWater vapor animation indicates that some northerly shear,\nassociated with the flow to the southwest of an upper low over the\nGulf of Mexico, is affecting Carlotta.  Not much change in strength\nis anticipated prior to landfall, but we will closely monitor the\nstructure of the tropical cyclone in case some intensification\noccurs.\n \nA center position estimate from a recent 37 GHZ SSMIS image\nsuggests that Carlotta may have shifted slightly to the east.\nThis is also consistent with the winds from a ship observation\nabout 70 n mi south of the estimated center.  Overall, however,\nthere has been little motion of the system since last night.\nCarlotta remains in a region of very weak steering currents with a\ntrough located to the northeast of the tropical cyclone.  Most of\nthe global models indicate that the system will move inland or\nalong the coastline within the next day or two.  The official\nforecast is similar to the previous one and shows Carlotta crossing\nthe coastline by Sunday.\n \nRegardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected\nhazards from Carlotta continue to be the heavy rainfall and\nthe associated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mud slides\nover the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The rainfall threat\nis enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra\nMadre mountains of Mexico.  For details, please see products issued\nby your local weather office.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  16/1500Z 15.9N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 16.5N  99.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 17.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  18/0000Z 17.6N  99.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-06-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018\n\nSatellite imagery and radar images from Acapulco Mexico suggest that\nthere continues to be little change in the organization of\nthe storm.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are also\nunchanged, so the advisory intensity wind speed remains at 45 kt.\nCarlotta continues to be affected by some northerly shear associated\nwith an upper-level low over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and no\nimportant changes in intensity are anticipated prior to landfall.\nCarlotta has a small circulation that, after the center crosses the\ncoast, is likely to weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of\nsoutheastern Mexico and dissipate in a day or so.\n\nAnimation of the radar images and high-resolution GOES16 visible\nimagery suggest that the center is inching northward, and the\ninitial motion estimate is 360/1 kt.  Carlotta remains in an\nenvironment of weak steering currents between mid-level high\npressure systems.  The track forecast reasoning is that the tropical\ncyclone will move very slowly northward to north-northwestward,\nbetween the two highs.  All of the global models show Carlotta\nmoving inland soon.  The current official forecast is a little left\nof the previous one and right of the dynamical model consensus,\nalthough some of the input models of this consensus lose the\nanalyzed vortex after 12-24 hours.\n\nRegardless of whether the center moves inland, the primary expected\nhazards from Carlotta continue to be heavy rainfall and the\nassociated risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides\nover the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.  The rainfall threat\nwill be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern\nSierra Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details, please see products\nissued by your local weather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 16.1N  99.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 16.7N  99.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 17.3N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  18/0600Z 17.9N 100.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-06-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 16 2018\n\nCarlotta has surprised us this evening.  Radar images from Acapulco,\nMexico, indicate that the storm has strengthened and its structure\nhas improved significantly.  The radar data indicate that Carlotta\nhas a well-defined, but tiny, inner core and the eye has been\ncontracting during the past few hours.  In addition, the radar\nechoes in the eyewall has been getting stronger and more symmetric\naround the eye.  The initial wind speed is set to 55 kt, in\nagreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.\n\nCarlotta is very close to the coast of southern Mexico and, in\nfact, the northern eyewall is partially onshore.  Since the\nstorm is expected to interact with land and is forecast to move\ninland overnight or Sunday morning, it appears unlikely that\nCarlotta will strengthen much more.  Once inland, fast weakening is\nexpected and Carlotta should dissipate over the high terrain of\nMexico Sunday night or early Monday.\n\nThe storm has moved more to the west than previous thought, likely\ndue to the influence of a narrow mid-level ridge to its north.  The\nnew forecast is adjusted well to the west of the previous one, and\nis in fair agreement with the latest consensus models.\n\nRegardless of whether the center moves inland, the threat of heavy\nrainfall and potential of life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides continue over the southern parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca.\nThe rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow\nover the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details,\nplease see products issued by your local weather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 16.6N  99.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 24H  18/0000Z 17.5N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  18/1200Z 18.0N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-06-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018\n\nThe Acapulco Radar from the Mexican Weather Service has been very\nuseful in diagnosis and tracking Carlotta tonight.  Now that a\nportion of the circulation is interacting with land, the radar\npresentation has deteriorated compared with several hours ago, and\nthe cloud pattern observed on satellite has become shapeless. The\ncyclone is so tiny than even the ASCAT did not completely identified\nthe cyclone, but at least it measured a few 35-kt wind vectors.\nNone of the global models acknowledge the presence of Carlotta in\nthe analysis.  Dvorak T-numbers from al agencies are decreasing, and\non this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt.\n\nSince the interaction with land is expected to continue, the NHC\nforecast calls for gradual weakening, and this will occur at a\nfaster rate if the cyclone moves inland within the next 12 to 24\nhours as anticipated.\n\nYesterday, the forecast was for Carlotta to move northeastward or\nnorthward. The steering currents changed slightly tonight, and\ninstead, the tiny cyclone is now moving toward the northwest at\nabout 6 kt or faster. The limited available guidance suggests that\nthis general motion should continue until dissipation in 36 hours or\nso. Since the cyclone is not depicted by the global models, the\nforecast is highly uncertain.\n\nGiven the northwest track, the Government of Mexico has extended the\nTropical Storm Warning westward along the coast. It must be\nemphasized that regardless of whether the center moves inland or\ncontinues moving along the coast, the main threat of heavy rainfall\nand potential of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides\ncontinue over the southern parts of Guerrero, Oaxaca and Michoacan.\nThe rainfall threat will be enhanced by moist southwesterly flow\nover the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico.  For details,\nplease see products issued by your local weather office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 17.0N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 17.4N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 17.9N 101.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  18/1800Z 18.5N 102.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-06-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Carlotta Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018\n\nThe system has become quite disorganized this morning and, even with\nhigh-resolution visible satellite images, it is extremely difficult\nto locate a center.  Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to\ndecrease and the intensity estimate is lowered to 35 kt kt for this\nadvisory.  Hopefully, we will receive data from some upcoming ASCAT\nscatterometer overpasses in a few hours that will help us better\nlocate the center of circulation.  Carlotta is likely to continue\nto spin down due to the interaction with mountainous terrain and\nthe system should degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow, or sooner.\n\nGiven the uncertainty in the location, the initial motion estimate,\n305/6 kt, is also highly uncertain.  The steering currents around\nCarlotta remain weak, but the cyclone is expected to move slowly\nnorthwestward between a couple of mid-level anticyclones.  The\nofficial forecast is a little to the left of the previous one but\nstill north of most of the track guidance for the first 12 to 24\nhours of the forecast.  Most of the track models lose the analyzed\nvortex after that time.\n\nIt must again be emphasized that, regardless of the exact track of\nCarlotta, the main threat of heavy rainfall and potential of\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides continue over the\nsouthern parts of Guerrero and Michoacan.  The rainfall threat will\nbe enhanced by moist southwesterly flow over the southern Sierra\nMadre mountains of Mexico.  For details, please see products issued\nby your local weather office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 17.2N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 17.7N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 18.0N 102.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  19/0000Z 18.3N 102.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-06-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018\n\nData from a recent scatterometer pass indicated Carlotta still had\na small circulation, but that it was quite weak with maximum winds\nnear 25 kt.  Persistent northerly shear continues to affect the\ndepression.  The system has lacked much organized deep convection\nfor the past several hours and it is likely to degenerate into a\nremnant low overnight.  Accordingly, the official forecast shows the\nsystem becoming post-tropical by early Monday.\n\nBased on the ASCAT observations, the center has been re-positioned a\nlittle to the southeast of the previous track.  The initial motion\nestimate is now 300/6 kt.  High pressure to the north of Carlotta\nshould maintain a general west-northwestward track for the next day\nor two.\n\nThe main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the\nsouthern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.\nThese rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow\nover the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Consult products\nissued by your national meteorological service.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 17.1N 101.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.5N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":14,"Date":"2018-06-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018\n\nVisible satellite imagery indicates that Carlotta has maintained a\nsmall but robust low-level circulation, with strong convection\nbursting over and south of the well-defined center.  Satellite\nintensity estimates are T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and T2.3/33 kt from\nUW-CIMSS ADT.  Based on these data, the intensity is being\nmaintained at 25 kt and Carlotta is still classified as a tropical\ncyclone.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a slightly slower 295/04 kt. The\nrecent development of deep convection has likely amplified the\nvertical circulation, resulting in the forward motion being\nslightly retarded by the north-northwesterly upper-level winds.\nHowever, a stout ridge to the north of the small cyclone should keep\nthe system moving in a general west-northwestward direction just\noffshore the coast of Mexico for the next day or so.\n\nPulsing convection with tops to near -80C has been occurring since\nthe previous advisory. However, vertical wind shear of around 15 kt\nalong with drier mid-level air coming in off of mainland Mexico are\nexpected to steadily weaken the system, resulting in degeneration\ninto a remnant low on Monday.\n\nThe main threat from Carlotta continues to be heavy rains over the\nsouthern portions of the states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima.\nThese rains, which will likely be enhanced by moist upslope flow\nover the southern Sierra Madre mountains of Mexico, could produce\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides.  Consult products\nissued by your national meteorological service.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 17.2N 102.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 17.4N 102.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":15,"Date":"2018-06-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018\n\nSuccessive bursts of deep convection have been occurring since last\nevening, each one to the northwest of the previous one, which\nlikely indicates that Carlotta still has a tight circulation and\nwell-defined center.  As such, the cyclone has not yet dissipated\nnor degenerated into a remnant low.  Satellite classifications\nsupport maintaining a 25-kt initial intensity.\n\nBased on the propagation of convection, Carlotta's center appears\nto be nearing the coast of Mexico, and the initial motion is\nnorthwestward, or 305/4 kt.  The depression is entering an area of\nlow-level southerly to westerly winds, which should force its small\ncirculation closer to land.  Due to steep coastal mountains,\nhowever, the low-level center is unlikely to move inland and should\ndissipate near the coast.  A 12-hour forecast point based on\npersistence is provided, but Carlotta could dissipate at any time.\n\nEach time a pulse of deep convection occurs, it is displaced south\nof the center due to 10-15 kt of north-northeasterly shear.  The\nshear is not expected to decrease in the short term, which could\nallow Carlotta to continue as a tropical depression until the\ncirculation is disrupted by the terrain of Mexico and dissipates.\n\nHeavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,\nMichoacan, and Colima.  Consult products issued by the Mexican\nmeteorological service for more information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 17.7N 102.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 18.1N 103.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":16,"Date":"2018-06-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018\n\nLocating Carlotta's center this morning in conventional satellite\nimagery has been difficult.  An earlier 0806 UTC GMI polar orbital\nmicrowave pass, however, was helpful in confirming that the system\nhas in fact persisted as a small, relatively symmetric tropical\ncyclone.  A blend of subjective and objective T-numbers supports 25\nkt for this advisory.\n\nWith the assistance of the aforementioned microwave image, the\ninitial motion is estimated to be 310/4 kt, within the weak low-\nto mid-level flow generated by high pressure to the north.\nLandfall still appears to be unlikely due to the expected motion\nparallel to the coastline, but only a slight northward deviation\ncould bring the center of the small cyclone onshore.  In any\nevent, dissipation should occur just offshore by Tuesday morning, if\nnot sooner.\n\nHeavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,\nMichoacan, and Colima.  Consult products issued by the Mexican\nmeteorological service for more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 17.9N 103.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.1N 103.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":17,"Date":"2018-06-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Carlotta Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n400 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018\n\nThe center of the depression, if it exists, remains very difficult\nto locate either with geostationary or microwave satellite\nimagery.  In fact, the microwave images suggest that there is no\nlonger a center.  Unfortunately, the scatterometer swath missed the\nestimated location of Carlotta so that was of no help.  Given these\nuncertainties, we will write at least one more advisory on this\nsystem, but the next one could be the last.  The current intensity\nis held at 25 kt based on continuity and a Dvorak estimate from\nSAB.  It is anticipated that the small system will dissipate by\nearly tomorrow due to interaction with land.\n\nThe initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/4 kt.  There is little\nin the way of track guidance available, since most of the models are\nunable to analyze a center for the tropical cyclone.  Carlotta or\nits remnant should continue to move northwestward to\nnorth-northwestward, in a weakness of the subtropical ridge, until\ndissipation.\n\nHeavy rains could still produce life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,\nMichoacan, and Colima.  Consult products issued by the Mexican\nmeteorological service for more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 18.1N 103.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 18.5N 103.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":18,"Date":"2018-06-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP042018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Carlotta Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042018\n1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 18 2018\n\nA 2239Z SSMI/S microwave image indicated that a small mid-level\ncirculation remained, but Carlotta's low-level circulation was\neither very small and indistinct, or it was located along the coast\nof Mexico.  For this, the final advisory, it is assumed that the\nlow-level center is beneath the remnant mid-level circulation. The\nupper-level circulation noted in hi-res GOES-16 visible imagery has\ncontinued to move southwestward and decouple from the rest of the\ncirculation, and what little convection that does exist is rather\namorphous-looking and disorganized.  Based on the disheveled\nappearance of the system, Carlotta is considered to be a remnant low\npressure system with 20-kt winds.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/03 kt.  Steering currents are\nweak and the shallow nature of the tiny cyclone should prevent\nCarlotta's remnant circulation from moving inland over the high\nmountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico. As a result, the system\nis forecast to drift northwestward and skirt the coast of Mexico\nfor the next 12-24 hours until dissipation or absorption into the\nmonsoon trough occurs some time on Tuesday.\n\nAlthough there could be some intermittent short-lived bursts of\nconvection, proximity to land, modest northerly vertical wind\nshear, and dry mid-level air should prevent the remnant low from\nregenerating into a tropical cyclone.\n\nAlthough Carlotta is no longer a tropical cyclone, an abundance of\ntropical moisture flowing inland from the Pacific is expected to\nproduce heavy rains, along with life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides over southern portions of the states of Guerrero,\nMichoacan, and Colima for the next couple of days.  Consult products\nissued by the Mexican meteorological service for more information.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Carlotta issued by the National\nHurricane Center.  For additional information on the remnant low...\nplease see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\nService...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 18.2N 103.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  19/1200Z 18.4N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-06-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n800 PM PDT Sat Jun 23 2018\n\nOver the past several hours, the low pressure system located around\n115W has developed a well-defined surface circulation.  The\nconvective pattern has also improved, with a primary band wrapping\naround the western semicircle of the cyclone, and a secondary band\nto the southeast and south.  The system has therefore been\ndesignated as Tropical Depression Five-E with an initial intensity\nof 30 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak classification.\n\nAlthough the lack of deep convection in the northeast quadrant\nsuggests that some moderate easterly wind shear and dry air are\npresent, warm SSTs below the cyclone will likely support slight\nslight strengthening for the next 24 to 36 hours.  The depression is\nforecast to cross a sharp SST gradient and become embedded within a\nfar more stable environment on Monday. This should cause it to lose\nall deep convection and gradually spin down as a remnant low through\nthe middle of next week.  The NHC forecast conservatively shows the\nsystem as a tropical cyclone through 72 h, but it could become a\nremnant low sooner than that.  The official intensity forecast is\nvery similar to the intensity consensus IVCN, and the model guidance\nis in good agreement that only modest strengthening will occur over\nthe next day or two.\n\nThe depression has been moving generally northward and the initial\nmotion estimate is 355/8 kt.  The dynamical models are in good\nagreement that the shallow cyclone will move continue moving\nnorthward for the next 24-36 h, steered by a weak low to mid-level\ncut-off low to its west.  After that time, the weakening system\nshould become increasingly steered by the low-level tradewind flow,\ncausing it to turn toward the around day 4.  The official forecast\nlies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and\nclosely follows the track consensus TVCN.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.3N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 15.6N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 17.4N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 18.7N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 20.3N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/0000Z 20.0N 129.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-06-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n200 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018\n\nAlthough convective banding features have become less distinct since\nthe previous advisory, a small mass of deep convection with cold\ncloud tops of -80C to -83C has developed over and to the south of\nthe previously exposed low-level circulation center. Weak outflow is\nrestricted to the southern semicircle due to modest northeasterly\nvertical wind shear. The intensity has been maintained at 30 kt\nbased on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from\nTAFB, SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT.\n\nThe depression has continued to move northward and the motion\nestimate is now 355/09 kt. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly\npacked around the previous advisory track, so no significant changes\nwere made. The various dynamical models remain in good agreement\nthat the cyclone will move northward around the east side of a\nmid-/upper-level low for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in the\nsystem moving over cooler water and weakening.  The more shallow\ncyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical\nridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed\nby a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded\nin the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast\ntrack is just an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies\nclose to the consensus track models TVCE and HCCA.\n\nThe SHIPS intensity model guidance is forecasting the vertical shear\nahead of the depression to gradually decrease to 5-10 kt during the\nnext 72 hours. However, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26C SSTs\nin about 24 hours or so, and also be moving into a drier and more\nstable environment by 36 h and beyond. The result should be only\nmodest strengthening during the next 24 h, followed by steady\nweakening thereafter. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant\nlow by Wednesday, and possibly dissipate by Thursday or Friday.\nHowever, a 120-h point was included in order to maintain continuity\nwith the previous advisory. The new NHC intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the\nHCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 15.1N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 16.4N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 17.9N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 19.0N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 19.6N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 20.3N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/0600Z 19.7N 130.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-06-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n800 AM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018\n\nThe cyclone has continued to maintain a small mass of deep\nconvection near the center during the past several hours, with the\nlow-level center under the convection. In addition, recent\nmicrowave overpasses indicate that the system has developed a small\ninner core.  Based on this and various satellite intensity estimates\nof 35 kt, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Daniel.\n\nThe initial motion is now 350/9.  There is no change in the track\nforecast philosophy.  The various dynamical models remain in good\nagreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side of a\nmid-/upper-level low for the next 12-24 hours, causing the system to\nmove over cooler water and weaken.  The resulting more shallow\ncyclone is then expected to encounter the broad Pacific subtropical\nridge to its north and be turned northwestward on Monday, followed\nby a westerly motion on Tuesday and beyond after becoming embedded\nin the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The official forecast is\nagain an update of the previous track.\n\nThe forecast track brings the center of Daniel over sea surface\ntemperatures below 26C in less than 24 h, and this should cause\nweakening even though the storm is in a light shear environment.\nThus, the intensity forecast continues the scenario of the\nprevious forecast by indicating a little more strengthening,\nfollowed by steady weakening over the cooler water.  The latest\ndynamical models are consistent in showing the system dissipating\nfaster than previously forecast, and the new forecast follows that\ntrend by showing dissipation after 96 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 17.2N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  27/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-06-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n200 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018\n\nDaniel continues to generate a curved band of convection near the\ncenter, although the cloud tops have warmed notably during the\npast several hours.  A recent ASCAT overpass showed maximum winds\nof 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity has\nbeen increased to that value.  The initial and forecast wind radii\nhave also been revised based on the scatterometer data.\n\nThe initial motion is now 340/10.  There is again no change in the\ntrack forecast philosophy, as the various dynamical models remain in\ngood agreement that Daniel will move northward around the east side\nof a mid-/upper-level low for the next 12-18 hours, then encounter\nthe broad Pacific subtropical ridge to its north.  This should\nresult in a northwestward turn on Monday and a generally westward\nmotion on Tuesday and beyond.  The only appreciable change in the\nguidance since the last advisory is that the cyclone is forecast to\nmove a little faster.  Thus, the official forecast is mostly an\nupdate of the previous track with a slightly faster forward speed.\n\nDaniel should cross the 26C isotherm in 12 h or less, and the\nforecast track takes the system over progressively cooler water.\nThus, the new intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening after\n12 h, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a depression by 36 h,\ndegenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, and dissipate completely\nbetween 96-120 h.  All of these events could occur earlier than\ncurrently forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 16.9N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 18.1N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 19.2N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 19.8N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 20.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  27/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-06-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n800 PM PDT Sun Jun 24 2018\n\nDaniel's convective structure is slowly degrading. Recent IR imagery\nindicates that active deep convection is primarily occuring in a\nsingle burst, southwest of the tropical storm's center. The initial\nintensity has been held at 40 kt based on an earlier ASCAT overpass\naround 1700 UTC, but given the overall degradation of the structure\nof the cyclone since that time, it is possible this is generous. The\ntropical storm is quickly approaching the 26 deg C isotherm, so it\nis likely that Daniel has already reached its peak intensity. All of\nthe guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone will gradually\nspin down over the next couple of days, likely losing all deep\nconvection within the next 48 h.  Essentially no change has been\nmade to the NHC intensity forecast, which now calls for Daniel to\ndissipate by 96 hours.\n\nSeveral recent microwave overpasses suggest that the center of the\ntropical storm is slightly northeast of the previous estimate. As a\nresult, the official track forecast has been nudged in that\ndirection for the first 24 hours, but is very similar to the\nprevious advisory beyond that time. There is otherwise no change in\nthe reasoning behind the track forecast, and Daniel is still\nexpected to begin a turn toward the northwest by tomorrow as it\nmoves along the eastern edge of a weak mid-level low. Once Daniel\nbecomes a remnant low, it will be steered westward in the low-level\ntradewind flow. The new official track forecast remains near the\nmiddle of the track guidance envelope, close to the consensus models\nTVCN and HCCA.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 17.9N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 18.9N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 19.7N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 20.1N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  28/0000Z 20.1N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-06-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n200 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018\n\nCloud tops have been steadily warming since the previous advisory\nand the overall amount of convection has also been shrinking.\nHowever, a small mass of convection has persisted near and over the\nlow-level center, and a 0443Z ASCAT partial pass indicated that the\nwind field in the western semicircle hadn't changed since the\nprevious overpasses just 12 h prior. Therefore, it is assumed that\nwinds near 40 kt still exists in the unsampled eastern semicircle.\nThe last UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate at 0225Z was 43 kt. Based on the\napparent lack of any significant low-level structural change noted\nin the latest ASCAT data, along with the SATCON estimate, the\nintensity is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 330/09 kt. Daniel is expected to\ngradually make a turn toward the northwest within the next 12 h as\nthe small cyclone moves around the eastern periphery of a mid- to\nupper-level low located about 450 nmi to the west-southwest. As\nDaniel moves over progressively cooler waters, the weakening cyclone\nwill become vertically more shallow and be steered westward by the\nlow-level easterly tradewind flow on days 2-4. The latest model\nguidance remains good agreement with this developing track scenario.\nAs a result, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory track and is close to the consensus models TVCN and HCCA.\n\nThe small cyclone is currently located over sea-surface temperatures\n(SST) of about 25C, with colder water lying ahead of the system.\nAlthough the vertical wind shear is forecast to be low, steady\nweakening and gradual erosion of the central convection is expected\nthroughout the forecast period due to the colder SSTs and a lack of\ninstability, especially after 12-18 hours.  Daniel is forecast to\nweaken to a depression by 24 h, and degenerate into a remnant low\npressure system shortly thereafter. However, given the current small\nand relatively weak circulation, faster weakening could occur than\nwhat is currently indicated. The latter scenario is supported by\nthe ECMWF and UKMET models, which show dissipation by 72 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 18.8N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 19.5N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 20.2N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 20.4N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  27/0600Z 20.5N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  28/0600Z 20.3N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-06-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Daniel Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n800 AM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018\n\nConvection associated with Daniel is gradually diminishing as the\ncyclone moves over cooler water, with the remaining convection just\nto the west or southwest of the center.  The initial intensity is\nreduced to 35 kt based on various subjective and objective\nsatellite intensity estimates.  Daniel should continue to weaken\nover sea surface temperatures of 23-24C, with the system expected\nto drop below tropical storm strength in the next 12 h and to\ndegenerate to a remnant low by 36 h.\n\nThe cyclone is starting its expected left turn with the initial\nmotion now 315/8.  A combination of a mid- to upper-level low to\nthe west-southwest and a low- to mid-level ridge to the north\nshould cause Daniel to turn west-northwestward to westward during\nthe next 36 h, with the westward motion continuing until the\ncyclone dissipates.  The new track forecast is similar to the\nprevious forecast and is close to the center of the guidance\nenvelope through 48 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 19.0N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 19.6N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 20.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-06-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n200 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018\n\nConvection associated with Daniel continues to diminish as the\ncyclone moves over cooler water, and most satellite intensity\nestimates have dropped below tropical-storm strength. Thus, Daniel\nis downgraded to a tropical depression.  The system should continue\nto weaken over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and it is forecast\nto degenerate into a remnant low by 24 h and to dissipate completely\nbetween 48-72 h.\n\nThe initial motion is now 305/7.  Daniel should turn more westward\nduring the next 24 h as low-level easterly flow on the south side\nof the subtropical ridge becomes the main steering mechanism, and\nthis motion should continue through dissipation.  The new track\nforecast is similar to the previous forecast and it is a little\nnorth of the center of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 19.4N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 19.8N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 20.0N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  27/0600Z 20.1N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  27/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n800 PM PDT Mon Jun 25 2018\n\nThe depression consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a small\npatch of deep convection well to the south of the center. The\ninitial intensity is kept at 30 kt in this advisory based on\ncontinuity. However, given that the system is over cold waters and\ndevoid of deep convection, the NHC forecast calls for Daniel to\nbecome a remnant low on Tuesday.\n\nThe shallow cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285\ndegrees at 8 kt embedded within the easterly trade winds. Daniel or\nits remnants should move toward the west until dissipation in a day\nor so. Guidance is very consistent with this solution.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 19.7N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  27/0000Z 20.2N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Daniel Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n200 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018\n\nThe last bit of convection occurred around 0600 UTC, consisting of\ncloud tops to -30C to -35C. This allowed TAFB to provide a Dvorak\nsatellite current intensity (CI) estimate of 30 kt. This was enough\nto still classify Daniel as a tropical depression. Since that time,\nhowever, the convection has eroded significantly and cloud tops have\nwarmed to only around -15C. Weakening is expected during the next\ncouple of days as the small cyclone moves over SSTs less than 24C\nand also ingests more stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds.\nDegeneration into a remnant low pressure is expected later this\nmorning, with dissipation is forecast by 48 hours. The next advisory\ncould easily be the last forecast required for this system.\n\nThe shallow cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 7-8 kt. Now that\nDaniel has become embedded within the low-level easterly trade wind\nflow, the cyclone and its remnants should move westward at around 10\nkt until dissipation occurs in a couple of days.  The official\nforeast track is just an update and extension of the previous\nadvisory track, and closely follows the consensus track models HCCA\nand TCVE.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 19.9N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  27/0600Z 20.1N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  27/1800Z 20.0N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Daniel","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP052018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Daniel Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052018\n800 AM PDT Tue Jun 26 2018\n\nDaniel has become a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with no\nassociated convection over 23-24C sea surface temperatures, and\nthus has degenerated to a remnant low pressure area.  The remnants\nof Daniel should move westward for the next 36 h or so before\ndissipating completely.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\non Daniel.  For additional information on the remnant low please see\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttp://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 20.0N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  27/0000Z 20.1N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  27/1200Z 20.1N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  28/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n300 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that the low pressure area south of\nManzanillo has become better defined during the day, with ample\nbanding features to the north and west of the center.  Thus, this\nsystem is declared a tropical depression, and the initial wind speed\nis set to 30 kt, which is based on an overnight scatterometer\npass and a satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB.\n\nThe center has not been particularly easy to track since it hasn't\nhad a lot of continuity.  Generally the overall system has been\nmoving west-northwestward at about 13 kt, so that will be the\ninitial motion.  A mid-level ridge over Mexico extending westward\ninto the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the depression\ngenerally west-northwestward for the next several days, with some\ngradual decrease in forward speed in a few days due to the ridge\nweakening. The biggest uncertainty in the model guidance appears to\nbe in the shorter term, with several models indicating a\nnorthwestward motion could begin soon.  That motion doesn't make\nsense with the west-to-east orientation of the ridge, so the\nofficial forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope\nand the model consensus.\n\nModerate northeasterly shear is forecast to wane over the next few\ndays, which should promote strengthening since the depression is\nover warm waters.  However, this intensification could be tempered\nby marginal SSTs in 2 or 3 days, and an intrusion of drier mid-level\nair as suggested by the GFS/ECMWF models.  Thus only a moderate\namount of strengthening is forecast, and the official forecast is\nbetween the SHIPS model and the NOAA corrected consensus HCCA model.\nIn about 4 days, the depression will likely be over rather marginal\nSSTs with nearby dry air.  These conditions will probably kill off\nany remaining deep convection, causing the cyclone to degenerate\ninto a remnant low by day 5.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 13.3N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 14.1N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 15.1N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 16.0N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 16.6N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z 18.5N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  02/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2018-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n900 PM MDT Wed Jun 27 2018\n\nConvection associated with the depression has become a little better\norganized since the previous advisory as there has been a general\nincrease in banding over the northwestern portion of the\ncirculation. Despite the increase in organization, Dvorak intensity\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB are still below tropical storm\nstrength, so the initial intensity will remain 30 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe depression is currently located within an area of moderate\nnortheasterly shear, however, the shear is forecast to decrease over\nthe next couple of days.  During this time, the depression will be\ntraversing warm water and gradual strengthening is anticipated.  By\nthe weekend, the system is expected to begin moving over cooler\nwaters and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should\nhalt further intensification. Cool water and a more stable air mass\nshould result in weakening later in the period and the system is\nforecast to become a remnant low by day 5.  It should be noted that\nthe 18Z GFS forecasts a significantly stronger cyclone than the\nremainder of the global models and intensity guidance, and appears\nto be an outlier. Since the strength of the GFS vortex is used as a\npredictor in the SHIPS guidance, that intensity model also showed\nmore intensification this cycle.  For now, the NHC intensity\nforecast follows the more conservative LGEM, HWRF, and ECMWF-based\nSHIPS guidance, and is not too different than the previous official\nforecast.  If other models trend toward the GFS solution of a\nstronger storm, the NHC forecast may need to be adjusted in future\nadvisories.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that the depression continues to move\nwest-northwestward around 13 kt.  The cyclone is located to the\nsouth of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern\nMexico.  This should keep the cyclone on a general west-\nnorthwestward heading during the next several days, however the\nsystem is forecast to slow down as the ridge weakens by the\nweekend.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, except\nfor the aforementioned GFS which takes a deeper cyclone\nfarther northward as the ridge weakens.  The NHC track forecast is\nnear the various consensus models through 48 hours, but leans more\ntoward the ECMWF and HWRF after that time.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 13.6N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 14.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 15.2N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 15.9N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 17.3N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 18.8N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  03/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":3,"Date":"2018-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n300 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018\n\nConvection has steadily increased and become better organized since\nthe previous advisory, especially in the inner-core region.\nSatellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC were T2.0/30 kt from both\nTAFB and SAB, and T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Since that time,\nhowever, convection near the low-level center has increased,\nresulting in a steady increase in the raw ADT estimates to T2.5/35\nkt. Based on the latter data, the initial intensity is increased to\n35 kt at the advisory time, making Emilia the fifth tropical storm\nso far this season as well as the fifth tropical storm so far during\nthe month of June.\n\nThe motion estimate is an uncertain 285/13 kt due to uncertainty in\nthe exact location of the low-level center. Passive microwave\nsatellite data, plus extrapolation of the previous motion, were\nused to locate the center. However, recent GOES-16 nighttime cloud\nphysics satellite data suggest that the center may be developing\ncloser to the ball of strong convection in the southern portion of\nthe north-to-southwest elongated circulation. Having said that, the\nlatest model guidance remains in fair agreement on Emilia moving in\na general west-northwestward direction during the next 96 hours,\naccompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. Afterwards,\nwhat should be a weakened and more shallow cyclone is expected to\nbe turned westward by a strong subtropical ridge and brisk easterly\ntradewind flow. The GFS and UKMET models take Emilia more\nnorthwestward into the strong subtropical ridge after 72 hours,\nwhich seems unlikely. As a result, the new track forecast is similar\nto the previous advisory, which lies near the southern edge of the\nguidance envelope and close to a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models.\n\nEmilia's outflow is good to the west but restricted to the east due\nto near 20 kt of easterly vertical wind shear. The shear is forecast\nto decrease to around 15 kt by 48 hours and to less than 10 kt by 72\nh and beyond. This should allow for some modest strengthening\nduring the next 48 h while the cyclone remains over SSTs greater\nthan 26 deg C. After that time, however, SSTs drop off sharply to\nless than 25C, and the cooler water temperatures are expected to\ncombine with much drier mid-level to induce a steady weakening trend\ndespite the favorable shear environment. The new NHC intensity\nforecast is essentially just the same as the previous advisory, and\nis slightly higher the consensus intensity model IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 13.8N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 14.4N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 15.2N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 15.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  02/0600Z 19.1N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  03/0600Z 20.3N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":4,"Date":"2018-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n900 AM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018\n\nDeep convection continues in the western semicircle of the cyclone,\nalthough a fair portion of the eastern side of the low-level\ncirculation is exposed due to shear.  Satellite classifications are\nessentially the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial wind speed will\nstay 35 kt. Global models are in good agreement that the wind shear\nwill decrease over the next 24 hours, which should promote\nstrengthening. In a couple of days, Emilia is predicted to move over\ncool SSTs and through a drier environment, causing its inevitable\nweakening to begin.  The official forecast is essentially an update\nof the previous one, showing a gradual increase in strength until\nlate Friday, then weakening on Sunday.  Emilia should become a\nremnant low by 96 hours as it moves over SSTs of about 23C.\n\nEmilia has been a challenging storm to track because of limited\nmicrowave passes and an elongated low-level structure.  Even with\n1-min GOES-16 visible data, it is difficult to tell how embedded\nthe center of Emilia is within the deep convection.  The available\ndata suggest the storm has slowed a little bit and turned to the\nright, so my motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A mid-level ridge over\nMexico and the adjacent eastern Pacific should gradually weaken\nduring the next few days, resulting in a reduction of Emilia's\nforward speed. The biggest change from the last forecast cycle is\nthat there could be a more substantial break in the subtropical\nridge in the medium-range period, allowing the storm to continue a\nmore west-northwestward motion, rather than taking a climatological\nwestward turn. This track is dependent on how strong the cyclone is\nat that time and, since Emilia is forecast to be rather weak at\nlong range, the official forecast is on the southern side of the\nguidance envelope, albeit with a northward adjustment since the last\nadvisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 14.4N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 15.1N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 15.9N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 16.6N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 18.6N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  02/1200Z 20.5N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":5,"Date":"2018-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n300 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018\n\nSatellite images indicate that Emilia is better organized than this\nmorning, with a large banding feature wrapping around the western\nsemicircle.  There is still a fair amount of northeasterly shear,\nhowever, since the eastern part of the circulation is partially\nexposed.  A blend of the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB gives an\ninitial wind speed of 40 kt.  Further strengthening is expected over\nthe next day or so while Emilia experiences decreasing shear over\nwarm waters.  A gradual decline in intensity should begin over the\nweekend due to the storm encountering cooler SSTs and entraining\ndrier more stable air.  Model guidance is a bit higher with the peak\nintensity of Emilia on this cycle, and the official prediction\nfollows suit, ending up near the corrected consensus models.\n\nThe storm continues to move west-northwestward this afternoon.  A\ngradual decrease in Emilia's forward speed should occur over the\nnext few days due to a weakening mid-level ridge to the north.  The\nglobal models are still indicating a break in the subtropical ridge\npersisting at long range, which would keep the west-northwestward\nmotion going throughout the period.  The only change to the track\nforecast is a northward adjustment at days 4 and 5 to better match\nthe poleward-trending models, although the official forecast\nremains on the southern side of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 14.9N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 15.5N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 16.2N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 16.9N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 17.5N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 19.0N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 21.0N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/1800Z 22.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":6,"Date":"2018-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n900 PM MDT Thu Jun 28 2018\n\nSeveral microwave images during the day revealed that Emilia\ncontinues to be a sheared cyclone with the center to the east of a\nconvective mass. However, it appears that during the past hour or\nso, the center is a little closer to the edge of the thunderstorm\nactivity, and Dvorak T-numbers are now indicative of a 45-kt\ntropical cyclone. Model guidance is not showing much decrease in the\nnortheasterly shear for the next 24 to 36 h, and this scenario only\nallows for slight strengthening. In addition, by the time the shear\nis forecast to decrease, the circulation of Emilia will be affected\nby cooler waters. By then, a decay in intensity is anticipated.\n\nEmilia is moving toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at about\n10 kt, steered by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the\nnorth of the cyclone.  Most of the global models indicate that the\nridge will persist for the next several days, and the forecast\nflow pattern should keep Emilia on the same general track until\ndissipation. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one\nand follows very closely the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), which\nis in the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 15.4N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.3N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  02/0000Z 19.7N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  03/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/0000Z 23.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":7,"Date":"2018-06-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n200 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018\n\nEmilia has changed little in organization since the previous\nadvisory, with the convection continuing to be displaced to the\nwest and southwest of the low-level center by 15-20 kt of easterly\nvertical wind shear.  The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on\na blend of various satellite intensity estimates.\n\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/10.  A low- to\nmid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Emilia should steer the\ncyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period,\nand the track guidance is in good agreement with this scenario.\nThe new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast.\n\nThe dynamical model guidance suggests that the shear should\ngradually decrease during the next 24-48 h.  However, the sea\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track decrease during this\ntime, and it is uncertain if Emilia will be able to take advantage\nof the more favorable upper-level winds.  The new forecast follows\nthe trend of the previous forecast in showing slight strengthening\nduring this time.  After 48 h, the cyclone is expected to move over\ncool enough waters to cause steady weakening, and Emilia is\ncurrently forecast to decay to a remnant low by 96 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 16.0N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 16.5N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 17.2N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 18.4N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  02/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  03/0600Z 21.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/0600Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":8,"Date":"2018-06-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n800 AM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018\n \nShortwave infrared imagery and an earlier 0855 UTC AMSR2 polar\norbiter pass show deep convective bursts, with associated\n-78C cloud tops, developing near the surface center.  The microwave\npass also revealed improved curved banding to the south of the\ncenter.  Based on these recent cloud pattern trends, it appears as\nthough the east-northeasterly shear is beginning to diminish, as\npredicted by the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.  The initial\nintensity is increased to 50 kt on this advisory based on a blend of\nthe Dvorak subjective T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, and an earlier\nSATCON analysis of 50 kt.\n \nSome further strengthening is still possible during the next 24\nhours or so as the shear continues to relax.  Afterward, decreasing\nsea surface temperatures and a stabilizing air mass should initiate\na weakening trend.  A majority of the large-scale models indicate\nthat Emily will degenerate into a remnant low in 4 days, if not\nsooner.  The NHC forecast follows suit and is based on the HCCA and\nFSU Superensemble intensity consensus forecasts.\n \nThe initial motion is estimated to be 295/10 kt.  Emily continues\nto be steered by a relatively narrow low to mid-level tropospheric\nridge situated to the north.  Global and hurricane models continue\nto remain in good agreement with a general west-northwestward motion\nuntil dissipation.  The official forecast is slightly to the left\nof the previous advisory and closely follows the HCCA and TVCN\nconsensus models through day 5.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  29/1500Z 16.2N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 16.6N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 17.2N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 17.8N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 20.3N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 21.7N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/1200Z 22.7N 134.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":9,"Date":"2018-06-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n200 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018\n\nEmilia remains a sheared tropical cyclone, as visible satellite\nimages show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of\na large mass of deep convection.  The center has become a little\nmore exposed this afternoon, but Dvorak Data T-numbers are unchanged\nfrom this morning and the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt for\nthis advisory.  Although the shear is forecast to decrease during\nthe next 24 hours, the cyclone will be moving over gradually\ndecreasing SSTs, so little overall change in strength is anticipated\nduring that time.  By late Saturday, Emilia is forecast to cross the\n26 degree isotherm and move into a less favorable thermodynamic\nenvironment, which should initiate weakening.  Dry air and cool\nwaters should accelerate the spin down and Emilia is forecast to\ndegenerate into a remnant low in about 72 hours, if not sooner.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt.  Emilia should continue\nmoving west-northwestward to the south of a low to mid-level ridge.\nAfter weakening, a more westward motion is forecast as the system\ncomes under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow.  The\ntrack guidance remains in good agreement and the updated official\nforeast is near the center of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 16.6N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 17.0N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 17.5N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 18.3N 122.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 19.1N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 21.0N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/1800Z 22.1N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/1800Z 22.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":10,"Date":"2018-06-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n800 PM PDT Fri Jun 29 2018\n\nThe cloud pattern has become less organized tonight. The center is\neven more separated from the main convection than earlier today,\nwhile the low-level circulation is becoming somewhat elongated.\nThis is a result of a persistent easterly shear and the effect of\ncooler waters.  Based on the current pattern and the decrease in the\nDvorak numbers, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt in\nthis advisory. Emilia could still maintain tropical storm status for\na day or so, but given the environmental conditions of shear and\ncool waters, the NHC forecast calls for weakening and Emilia could\nbecome a remnant low in 3 days or even sooner.\n\nThe initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 at 10 kt.\nThe cyclone should continue to be steered on the same direction\nfor the next few days by the flow south of a subtropical ridge. The\nNHC forecast is very near the HFIP Corrected consensus HCCA which is\nin the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 16.8N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 17.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 17.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 19.5N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  04/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":11,"Date":"2018-06-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emilia Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n200 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018\n\nEmilia has sheared apart during the past several hours, with the\nlow-level center now exposed to the northeast of a diminishing area\nof deep convection.  Recent scatterometer data indicate that the\nsustained winds have decreased to near 35 kt, and that will be the\ninitial intensity for this advisory.  Emilia should continue to\nweaken as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, and\nthe system is now expected to decay into a remnant low pressure\nares between 36-48 h.\n\nThe initial motion is now 285/8.  The low- to mid-level flow on the\nsouth side of the subtropical ridge should continue to steer Emilia\nor its remnants west-northwestward for the next three days or so,\nfollowed by a more westward motion before the remnants dissipate.\nThe new forecast track is an update of the previous track and lies\nnear the various consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 17.0N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 18.1N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 18.9N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 20.0N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  03/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  04/0600Z 22.0N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":12,"Date":"2018-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n800 AM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018\n\nEmilia's cloud pattern has degenerated significantly this morning\nand it now consists of a swirl of low clouds with a small patch of\nconvection well removed from the center.  The initial intensity has\nbeen adjusted downward to 30 kt, and given that the circulation is\nalready moving over cool waters, additional weakening is forecast.\nEmilia is expected to become a remnant low later today, although the\nsystem could still generate intermittent patches of convection.\n\nThe initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at\n10 kt.  The depression or its remnants should continue on the same\ngeneral track steered by the low-level flow until dissipation in a\nfew days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 17.7N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 18.3N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  01/1200Z 19.0N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":13,"Date":"2018-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP062018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emilia Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062018\n200 PM PDT Sat Jun 30 2018\n\nEmilia has lost all its deep convection while moving over\nincreasingly cooler waters, and it has become a swirl of low clouds.\nA recent ASCAT pass indicated some isolated spots with 30 kt winds,\nbut it confirms the overall weakening trend of the circulation.\nEmilia is expected to become a remnant low tonight, although the\nsystem could still generate intermittent patches of convection\nduring the next day or so.\n\nThe initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at\n10 kt.  The depression, or its remnants, should continue on the same\ngeneral track steered by the low-level flow until dissipation in a\ncouple of days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 18.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 18.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  01/1800Z 19.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/1800Z 20.5N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2018-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP072018","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018\n400 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018\n\nThe disturbance located well south of Mexico has become better\norganized during the day.  Recent visible imagery indicates that the\nsurface center has become better defined, and TAFB and SAB both\nprovided a data-T number of 2.0.  On this basis, the system has been\ndesignated as Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity\nof 30 kt.\n\nThe depression has been moving steadily west-northwestward at 11 kt\ntoday, steered by a mid-level ridge extending from central Mexico\nwestward over much of the eastern North Pacific.  This ridge\nwill likely be the dominant steering feature throughout the forecast\nperiod, and the cyclone should continue on a west-northwest heading\nat around the same forward speed through the middle of next week.\nAll of the dynamical models forecast this general scenario and I\nhave no reason to favor any one particular model, so the official\ntrack forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus through\nday 5.\n\nWhile the organization of the cyclone has improved today, the\nsurface circulation remains fairly broad, and deep convection is\nlimited to the northern semicircle of the circulation.  In addition,\ndeep-layer shear of around 15 kt, as analyzed by the GFS and ECMWF,\nis currently affecting the depression.  Because of these factors,\nany initial intensification will likely be slow to occur.  After\nabout 24 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, which should\nallow the depression to become better organized and strengthen at a\nquicker rate.  The dynamical-statistical models bring the cyclone to\nnear major hurricane intensity by day 4, while the dynamical models\ngenerally show more modest strengthening.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is near the intensity consensus for the first 36 hours, and\na little above it, closer to DSHP and LGEM, from 48-96 h. By the end\nof the forecast period, the cyclone will reach cooler waters, which\nshould result in rapid weakening.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 11.2N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 11.6N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 12.2N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 12.9N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 13.5N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ramon","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017\n400 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017\n\nThe small low pressure area located just south of the coast of\nsouthern Mexico has been producing persistent convection for about\n12 hours.  Although the convection is confined to the western\nportion of the circulation due to strong easterly shear, it has\nenough organization for the system to be classify as a tropical\ncyclone.  Scatterometer data from 0410 UTC revealed a small area\nof 35-40 kt winds to the west of the center, so advisories are\nbeing initiated on a 40-kt tropical storm, the seventeenth tropical\nstorm of the 2017 eastern Pacific hurricane season.  Strong\neasterly shear is forecast to persist over Ramon during the next\nduring the next few days, which is likely to prevent strengthening\nof the small tropical storm.  The ECMWF and GFS weaken the cyclone\nover the next day or so, although both models show some interaction\nwith another disturbance farther west in a couple of days.  The NHC\nforecast is of low confidence and calls for no change in strength\nthroughout the forecast period.  An alternate scenario is for Ramon\nto move closer to the coast of Mexico and dissipate within the next\n2-3 days.\n\nRamon is moving westward or 270/8 kt to the south of a deep layer\nridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  The ridge is forecast to\nbuild westward over northern Mexico during the next few days, which\nshould cause Ramon to move westward at a slightly faster forward\nspeed.  Later in the period, Ramon is forecast to reach the western\nportion of the ridge and turn northwestward.  Although most of the\nmodel guidance agrees with this general scenario, there is a fair\namount of spread in the track models.  The GFS and HWRF show a\nfaster westward motion while the ECMWF is much slower.  The UKMET\nis the outlier by taking Ramon eastward toward central America as a\nlow pressure area develops over the western Caribbean. Given the\nlarge spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast shows a slower\nwestward track and is close to the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means.\nThe confidence in the track forecast is quite low and interests\nalong the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of\nthis system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 14.3N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 14.3N  97.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 14.3N  99.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 14.4N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 14.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 14.5N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the\nsouthwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since\nyesterday and is now a tropical depression.  GOES-16 one-minute\nvisible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands\nof deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island.  The initial\nwind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite\nclassification, given recent microwave data.  An Air Force Reserve\nHurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to\nprovide a better estimate.\n\nOther than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental\nconditions look conducive for intensification of the depression.  A\nlarge mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of\nMexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid\nintensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or\nsouthern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm\nand deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the\ndepression becomes from a larger gyre over central America.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the\nhigh side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based\ntracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast.\n\nThe depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around\na distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.\nHowever the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the\naforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern\nCaribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on\nthe eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move\nmuch faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the\nGulf of Mexico on Saturday.  As the trough moves away, a building\nridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system\nto the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf\nstates. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to\nthe representation of the Florida Straits trough.  The GFS-based\nguidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the\nnew tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of\nthe rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the\nUKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus,\nbut must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm\nconditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras\ntonight through Thursday.\n\n2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of\nMexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a\nhurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,\nand heavy rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing\nor magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from\nLouisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for\nthe next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 12.2N  81.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 12.7N  82.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 13.8N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  06/0000Z 15.3N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  06/1200Z 17.9N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 23.5N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 29.0N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 34.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ramon","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017\n1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017\n\nFirst light visible satellite imagery show that the system is not\nvery well organized with little evidence of banding features.\nHowever, radar images from Puerto Angel Mexico do depict some\nrainbands over the western portion of the circulation.  The current\nintensity estimate is held at 40 kt, which is a little above the\nlatest Dvorak estimates.  Ramon is experiencing strong easterly\nshear associated with a large anticyclone centered near the\nTexas/Mexico border.  The dynamical model guidance indicate only a\nslight lessening of this shear over the next few days, so only\nslight strengthening seems possible.  The official intensity\nforecast follows the model consensus.\n\nThe center is difficult to locate, but my best guess of the initial\nmotion is 285/6 kt.  A large mid-level ridge to the north of the\ntropical cyclone is forecast to persist, which should cause a mostly\nwestward track over the next several days.  The official forecast is\na little to the north of the previous one and roughly in the middle\nof the track model guidance. There is a fairly large spread in the\nmodels so this forecast is of low confidence.\n\nAlthough the center of Ramon is expected to remain offshore, the\nnorthward adjustment of the track forecast requires the issuance of\na Tropical Storm Watch for a portion of the Mexican coast at this\ntime.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 14.9N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 15.1N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 15.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 15.5N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n500 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017\n\nVisible satellite images show that the depression has lots of\ncurved bands, although it is somewhat lacking any inner core\nfeatures. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flew into the\ndepression this afternoon and found a well-defined circulation, with\nmaximum flight-level winds of 37 kt and SFMR values around 30 kt.\nThese data support keeping the intensity at 30 kt for this advisory.\n\nEnvironmental conditions look quite favorable for strengthening over\nthe next few days, with low shear and very warm and deep water in\nthe path of the cyclone.  The various rapid intensification indices\nare all higher than the last cycle, suggesting an increasing chance\nof rapid intensification occurring.  The fly in the ointment,\nhowever, is all of the potential land interaction, first over\nCentral America and then possibly over the Yucatan Peninsula.  As\na compromise, the intensity forecast is raised considerably from the\nprevious one during the first 3 days, but is still below some\nguidance, such as the HWRF.\n\nThe depression continues to move slowly northwestward, steered by a\ndistant ridge over the southwestern Atlantic.  However the steering\npattern is forecast to change quickly tomorrow as a mid-tropospheric\ntrough over the Florida Straits moves across the northwestern\nCaribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Southerly flow on\nthe eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move\nmuch faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the\nGulf of Mexico on Saturday.  While there is some agreement on the\nsynoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in\nthe short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the\nforecast track as soon as 24 hours out.  This has profound\ndifferences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving\nconsiderably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across\nthe Gulf of Mexico.  Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a\nbit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long\nrange have been adjusted in that direction.  At this point, I\nwouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range\nforecast until the guidance comes into better agreement.  A G-IV\nmission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow\nto better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm\nconditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through\nFriday.  Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa\nRica, and Panama through Friday night.\n\n2. The system is expected to be near hurricane intensity when it\napproaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing\ndirect impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.  A\nhurricane watch could be issued for this area later this evening.\n\n3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of\nMexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a\nhurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,\nand heavy rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing,\nlocation, or magnitude of these impacts.  Residents along the Gulf\nCoast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this\nsystem for the next several days and heed any advice given by local\nofficials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 12.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 13.2N  83.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 14.6N  83.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  06/0600Z 16.7N  84.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 19.5N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 25.0N  88.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 30.5N  86.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n120H  09/1800Z 35.5N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ramon","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ramon Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017\n400 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017\n\nGeostationary and microwave satellite imagery, along with Mexican\nradar data, indicate that Ramon is becoming less organized. Although\nthe estimated intensity estimate will be held at 40 kt based on a\nship report that may or may not be correct, weakening seems likely.\nStrong easterly shear is forecast by the global models to persist\nover Ramon for the next couple of days, and most of these models\nshow the tropical cyclone dissipating in 24 to 48 hours.  Based on\nthat guidance and the current trends, the official forecast now\ncalls for the system to dissipate in 48 hours, and this event could\noccur sooner than that.\n\nThe center, if it still exists, continues to be difficult to locate\nbut the system appears to be moving a little faster toward the\nwest-northwest or 285/8 kt.  A large mid-level ridge to the north of\nRamon is expected to steer the cyclone on a slightly north of\nwestward track until it dissipates.  The official track forecast is\nsomewhat faster than the previous one and lies roughly in the middle\nof the track model guidance.\n\nThe primary concern with this system is locally heavy rains, which\nshould occur predominately in the immediate coastal zone of southern\nMexico.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 15.2N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 15.3N  99.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 15.6N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017\n\nThere have been some structural changes to the depression during\nthe past few hours.  Inner-core convection began developing just\nafter the issuance of the previous advisory, and Colombian radar\nimages from San Andres are now showing a well-defined convective\nband to the east and southeast of the center.  Despite these\nchanges, Dvorak satellite estimates remain T2.0 from TAFB and SAB,\nso the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.\n\nThe depression probably only has another 12 hours or so before its\ncenter moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but it is still\nexpected to reach tropical storm strength before that happens.\nOnce the center re-emerges over the waters of the northwestern\nCaribbean Sea a little after 24 hours from now, high oceanic heat\ncontent and low shear should contribute to strengthening.  Despite\nthese favorable conditions, the amount of strengthening will be\nunclear until we know how well the inner core survives crossing over\nNicaragua and Honduras.  Strengthening is likely to continue\nthrough at least day 3 up until the time the cyclone reaches the\ncentral Gulf of Mexico.  After day 3, there are some indications\nthat higher shear and/or cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf\nof Mexico could lead to some weakening, but that scenario is by no\nmeans a definite one at this time.  Needless to say, there continues\nto be greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast.\nThe updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward just\na bit through day 3 to follow an overall shift in the guidance,\nalthough it should be noted that the official forecast still lies\nabove the normally skillful HCCA model.\n\nIf the intensity forecast is complex, the track forecast is not\nmuch easier.  For the first 48 hours, the models appear split on\nhow the depression will interact with a disturbance currently\nlocated near the Straits of Florida.  For example, the ECMWF model\nshows some interaction with the disturbance's low-level vorticity,\nwhich swings the depression more to the east on the right side of\nthe guidance envelope.  The GFS, on the other hand, shows no such\ninteraction and has the cyclone on the western side of the guidance\nenvelope.  This setup has significant downstream effects after 48\nhours because it keeps the ECMWF on an eastern route and the GFS on\na western route as the cyclone heads toward the U.S. Gulf coast.\nThe new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly westward,\nalthough it is still not as far west as the consensus aids or the\nHCCA model.  Interestingly, although the ECMWF ensemble mean is\nclose to the operational run on the eastern side of the guidance\nenvelope, there is a high density of members to the left close to\nthe consensus aids, which lends additional support for the westward\nadjustment.\n\nA G-IV mission and Florida special soundings will begin tomorrow to\nbetter determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm\nconditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early\nFriday.  Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa\nRica, and Panama through Friday night.\n\n2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches\nthe Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct\nimpacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane\nwatch has been issued for a portion of this area.\n\n3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of\nMexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a\nhurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge,\nand heavy rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing,\nlocation, or magnitude of these impacts.  Residents along the Gulf\nCoast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this\nsystem for the next several days and heed any advice given by local\nofficials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 12.8N  82.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 13.5N  83.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 15.1N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  06/1200Z 17.6N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 20.2N  86.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 25.5N  88.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 30.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n120H  10/0000Z 36.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ramon","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Ramon Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017\n1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 04 2017\n\nMexican radar data, ship observations, and last-light visible\nimagery indicate that the original low-level center of Ramon has\ndissipated.  Earlier ASCAT data indicated the formation of a new\ncenter under convection well to the west, and this has probably\nbecome the primary center, if one still exists.  As a result, the\ninitial position of Ramon has been adjusted significantly to the\nwest.  Whatever remains of Ramon will likely be steered generally\nwestward by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.  Since\nmost of the track guidance no longer depicts a trackable low-level\ncenter, the new NHC track forecast follows the trend of the previous\nadvisory, in an effort to maintain some continuity.  Therefore, the\nforecast shows a continued westward motion with a slight increase in\nforward speed until the cyclone dissipates, in 24 hours or less.\n\nDvorak classifications have decreased and Ramon is now estimated to\nbe a 30 kt tropical depression.  All of the dynamical models\nforecast that Ramon will dissipate quickly, and in fact the most\nrecent runs of the ECMWF and UKMET suggest that only a trough should\nexist now.  There is some indication from the GFS and the GFS-based\nhurricane models that the mid-level remnants of Ramon could interact\nwith a disturbance to the west in a day or two and regenerate, or\ncontribute to the development of a new tropical cyclone.  However,\nthis is not supported by any of the other global models, and 30 kt\nor more of shear should prohibit significant redevelopment.\n\nEven if Ramon dissipates later tonight or tomorrow, locally heavy\nrainfall is still expected along the immediate coast of southern\nMexico through Thursday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 14.8N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n500 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with the depression has increased over\nthe eastern portion of the circulation overnight, however there\nhas only been a slight increase in overall banding.  Subjective\nDvorak intensity estimates suggest that the depression is near\ntropical-storm strength, but with the center located near the\nwestern edge of the deep convection the cyclone is kept as\na 30-kt tropical depression for this advisory.\n\nThe intensity forecast remains quite uncertain due to expected land\ninteraction today, and possibly again in about 48 hours when the\nsystem passes near the Yucatan peninsula.  The depression could\nstill become a tropical storm before the center moves over\nnortheastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras later today.  After the\ncyclone moves north of Honduras, it will traverse the warm waters of\nthe northwestern Caribbean Sea, where the upper-level environment is\nalso forecast to be conducive for strengthening. However, the amount\nof strengthening is likely to depend on the structure of the inner\ncore after it crosses land. The intensity models have continued\ntheir downward trend, but the NHC forecast remains near the higher\nside of the guidance due to these favorable conditions and\npersistence from the previous advisory.  Some additional\nstrengthening is possible while the system moves over the southern\nand central Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC intensity forecast brings\nthe system to hurricane strength within 72 hours.  This is in best\nagreement with the SHIPS intensity model.\n\nThe depression is moving northwestward or 315/6 kt.  The cyclone is\nforecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward during the\nnext day or two around the western side of a ridge the extends from\nnear the southeastern Bahamas southwestward into the central\nCaribbean Sea. By the weekend, a large mid- to upper-level ridge is\nforecast to build off the coast of the southeastern United States,\nand this should steer the cyclone north-northwestward at a faster\nforward speed.  After 72 hours, the system is expected to recurve\naround the northwestward side of the ridge.  The track guidance is\nin better agreement this cycle with the latest runs of the ECMWF\nand UKMET models shifting westward, closer to the previous GFS and\nHWRF iterations.  This has required a fairly substantial westward\nshift in the NHC forecast track at 72 h and beyond.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm\nconditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early\nFriday.  Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash\nflooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa\nRica, and Panama through Friday night.\n\n2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches\nthe Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from\nwind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch is\nin effect for a portion of this area.\n\n3. The system is forecast to strengthen over the Gulf of Mexico and\ncould affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this\nweekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy\nrainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing, location,\nor magnitude of these impacts.  Residents along the Gulf Coast from\nLouisiana through the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress\nof this system and heed any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 13.3N  83.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 14.3N  83.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  06/0600Z 16.3N  84.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 19.0N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 21.8N  87.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 27.8N  89.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 34.0N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  10/0600Z 39.5N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Ramon","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Ramon Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192017\n400 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2017\n\nSatellite data indicate that Ramon has degenerated into a trough\nof low pressure and that the shower activity near the center\nof circulation NHC was tracking has practically vanished. Since\nstrong wind shear will prevail in this area, regeneration is not\nanticipated. This is the last advisory issued by the National\nHurricane Center on this system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 15.0N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANT LOW\n 12H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern associated with Tropical Depression Sixteen\nincreased in organization after the last advisory, with the\nformation of a ragged central convective feature and outer banding\nin the northeastern semicircle.  In addition, data from the\nColombian radar at San Andres showed a partial eyewall, and surface\nobservations from Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, included a pressure of\n1001 mb outside of the center.  Based on these data, the initial\nintensity has been increased to 35 kt, and the depression has been\nupgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.\n\nThe center of Nate is now inland over northeastern Nicaragua, and\nlittle change in strength is expected until the center moves over\nthe northwestern Caribbean Sea.  After that, a combination of warm\nsea surface temperatures and light shear should allow for at least\nsteady strengthening.  However, the guidance is producing mixed\nsignals despite a favorable-looking environment.  The Rapid\nIntensification Index of the SHIPS model is showing high chances of\nrapid intensification, with better than a 50 percent chance of 25\nkt of strengthening in the next 24 h and nearly a 50 percent chance\nof 65 kt of strengthening in 72 h.  On the other side, the GFS and\nCanadian models show only modest development and keep the cyclone\nas a tropical storm until it reaches the northern Gulf coast.\nGiven the environment, the intensity forecast leans towards the high\nend of the guidance envelope and calls for Nate to become a\nhurricane in about 48 h and reach the northern Gulf Coast as a\nhurricane.\n\nThe initial motion is 325/8.  A combination of a large cyclonic gyre\nover Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward\nacross the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over\nthe western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward\nwith an increase in forward speed during the next 72 h.  While the\nguidance is in better agreement on the direction that Nate should\nmove, there remains disagreement on the speed despite an overall\ntrend toward a faster motion.  The new forecast track is similar to\nthe direction of the previous track, but shows a faster forward\nspeed that has the center near the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula\nin about 36 h and near the northern Gulf Coast in about 72 h.\nAfter the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its remnants are expected to\nrecurve northeastward upon encountering the mid-latitude\nwesterlies.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of\nCentral America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides\npossible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and\nBelize through Friday night.\n\n2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it\napproaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct\nimpacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm\nwarning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this\narea and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.\n\n3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as\na hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm\nsurge, and heavy rainfall is increasing.  However, it is too early\nto specify the exact timing, location, or magnitude of these\nimpacts.  Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana through the\nFlorida Panhandle should monitor the progress of Nate and heed any\nadvice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 14.3N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  06/0000Z 15.6N  84.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  85.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  07/0000Z 20.8N  86.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 23.7N  88.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 29.5N  89.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 36.0N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  10/1200Z 41.5N  76.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017\n\nThe center of Nate is now over eastern Honduras, and the cloud\npattern has lost some organization since the last advisory due to\npassage over land.  In addition, recent ASCAT overpasses suggest\nthat there are no tropical-storm-force winds outside of the coastal\nwaters of Nicaragua and Honduras.  However, surface observations\nindicate that the central pressure remains near 1000 mb, and based\non this the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 35 kt.\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to\ninvestigate Nate as it emerges from the northern coast of Honduras\naround 0300 UTC.\n\nAnalyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that\nNate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical\nwind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model.  The\nlarge-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should\ndiminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable\nenvironment for strengthening.  One change in the models from the\nprevious advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate\ncrosses the Gulf of Mexico.  The new intensity forecast shows little\nchange during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction,\nthen it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the\nnorthern Gulf Coast.  After landfall, Nate should weaken as it\ntraverses the eastern United States.  It should be noted that while\nthe forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is\nexpected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and\nthus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt.  It should also be noted\nthat SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and\nany period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being\nstronger than currently forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is now 330/9.  A combination of a large cyclonic\ngyre over Central America, a trough of low pressure moving westward\nacross the Gulf of Mexico, and a building subtropical ridge over\nthe western Atlantic should steer Nate generally north-northwestward\nwith an increase in forward speed during the next 48 h or so,\nfollowed by a turn toward the north as the storm reaches the\nwestern end of the ridge.  The guidance is in decent agreement on\nthe direction of motion, but there remains disagreement on the speed\ndespite a continued trend toward a faster motion.  The new forecast\ntrack is similar to the direction of the previous track, but again\nshows a faster forward speed that now has the center near the\nnortheastern Yucatan Peninsula in 24-36 h and near the northern Gulf\nCoast in 60-72 h.  After the Gulf Coast landfall, Nate or its\nremnants are expected to recurve northeastward upon encountering the\nmid-latitude westerlies.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of\nCentral America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides\npossible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and\nBelize through Friday night.\n\n2. Nate is forecast to be near hurricane intensity when it\napproaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct\nimpacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm\nwarning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this\narea and life-threatening flash flooding is also possible.\n\n3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as\na hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm\nsurge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the\nFlorida Panhandle. A hurricane watch and storm surge watch will\nlikely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast tonight or\nFriday morning, and residents in these areas should monitor the\nprogress of Nate and heed any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 14.9N  84.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  06/0600Z 16.5N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  06/1800Z 19.2N  86.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 22.3N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 25.6N  89.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 31.5N  89.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  09/1800Z 38.0N  81.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  10/1800Z 41.5N  72.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017\n\nNate's center has been moving northwestward across eastern\nHonduras, but it is just about to reach the waters of the\nnorthwestern Caribbean Sea.  Despite moving over land for the past\n12-15 hours, the cyclone appears to have a relatively intact and\nwell-defined inner core.  Deep convection has actually been\nincreasing over the center, and recent 85-GHz microwave data showed\nat least some form of a convective ring.  Given these signs, the\nmaximum winds are being held at 35 kt.  An Air Force Reserve\nHurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Nate during the next\nseveral hours to get a better handle on the storm's intensity and\nstructure.\n\nNate has been moving northwestward while crossing Nicaragua and\nHonduras, and the initial motion estimate is 325/10 kt.  The storm\nis currently embedded within a broad Central American gyre, and it\nshould swing north-northwestward on the east side of this gyre\nduring the next 36 hours.  After 36 hours, Nate should turn\nnorthward and then northeastward along the western periphery of a\nmid-tropospheric high centered off the southeastern U.S. coastline.\nCompared to yesterday at this time, the track models have come into\nmuch better agreement, and all the reliable models take Nate's\ncenter across the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula in\n24 hours and then across the U.S. central Gulf coast between 48 and\n60 hours.  Because of this tight clustering, there are no notable\ncross-track changes in the NHC forecast.  Speed-wise, however, the\nupdated official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and\nhas caught up to the various consensus aids.\n\nDue to low shear and very high oceanic heat content in the\nnorthwestern Caribbean Sea, Nate should at least steadily\nstrengthen once it moves offshore, especially since it appears to\nhave a well-defined inner core.  Rapid intensification is still not\nout of the question, and Nate could be near hurricane intensity by\nthe time it reaches the Yucatan coast in about 24 hours.  Land\ninteraction with the Yucatan peninsula could cause a brief hiatus in\nthe strengthening trend, but conditions should be conducive for\nadditional intensification while Nate is over the Gulf of Mexico.\nOverall, the intensity models have not changed much on this cycle,\nand the NHC forecast still calls for a 48-hour intensity of 70 kt,\nwhich is at the upper end of the guidance between HWRF and HCCA.\nAs mentioned before, Nate could strengthen further in the time\nbetween the 48-hour position and when it crosses the U.S. Gulf\ncoast.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of\nCentral America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides\npossible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and\nBelize through Friday night.\n\n2. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the\nYucatan Peninsula late Friday, bringing direct impacts from wind,\nstorm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a\nhurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and\nlife-threatening flash flooding is also possible.\n\n3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as\na hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm\nsurge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the\nwestern Florida Panhandle.  Hurricane and tropical storm watches, as\nwell as a storm surge watch, have been issued for a portion of the\nnorthern Gulf Coast, and residents in these areas should monitor the\nprogress of Nate, heeding any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 15.8N  84.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  06/1200Z 17.8N  85.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  07/0000Z 20.8N  87.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  07/1200Z 24.3N  89.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  08/0000Z 27.5N  90.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 33.7N  87.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  10/0000Z 40.0N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/0000Z 43.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n400 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017\n\nAn Air Force plane fixed the center of Nate as it was moving back\nover the waters of the Gulf of Honduras a few hours ago. The minimum\ncentral pressure was estimated at 999 mb, and a combination of\nflight-level and the SFMR winds yield an intensity of 40 kt. The\nsurface circulation is broad, and the strongest winds are within a\ncyclonically curved band in the eastern semicircle. Radar from\nHonduras also helped to track the center when the cyclone was over\nHonduras.  Nate is moving toward the very warm waters of the\nnorthwestern Caribbean Sea and within an environment of light shear.\nOn this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some strengthening through\nthe next 48 hours, and Nate is expected to be a Category one\nhurricane by the time it is close to the U.S. coast. The interaction\nwith the Yucatan peninsula, however, could halt the strengthening\ntemporarily in the 12 to 24 hour period.  Once Nate moves inland\nover the U.S., weakening is anticipated and the cyclone most likely\nwill dissipate by the end of the forecast period.\n\nNate is moving toward the north-northwest or 340 degrees at 12 kt.\nThe cyclone is sandwiched between a large cyclonic gyre over\nCentral America and a developing subtropical ridge over the\nwestern Atlantic. This flow pattern should steer Nate on the same\ngeneral north-northwest track with a marked increase in forward\nspeed for the next 2 days. After that time,  Nate should be on the\nnorthern edge of the subtropical high and become steered toward the\nnortheast by the mid-latitude westerly flow. The confidence in the\ntrack forecast is high since most of the reliable guidance have come\nto a very good agreement, and models are tightly clustered at least\nfor the next 2 to 3 days.  The NHC forecast is in the middle of the\nenvelope.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall is the main threat from Nate in portions of\nCentral America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides\npossible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Panama, and\nBelize through tonight.\n\n2. There is a possibility that Nate could be near hurricane\nintensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula later today\nbringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\nA tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a\nportion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also\npossible.\n\n3. Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast late Saturday\nor Sunday morning as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts\nfrom wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from\nLouisiana through the western Florida Panhandle.  Hurricane and\ntropical storm watches, as well as a storm surge watch, are in\neffect for a portion of the northern Gulf Coast, and residents in\nthese areas should monitor the progress of Nate, heeding any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 16.9N  85.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 19.2N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 22.7N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 26.4N  89.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 29.3N  89.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 36.0N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  10/0600Z 40.5N  74.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017\n\nReports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft\nindicate that Nate lacks an inner wind core at the present time,\nwith the maximum winds located about 50 n mi from the center.  The\ncentral pressure is fluctuating near 996 mb, and the aircraft-\nreported winds support an initial intensity of 45 kt.  This is in\ngood agreement with the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and\nSAB.  Satellite imagery shows that convection associated with Nate\nhas been increasing during the past several hours, and that the\nstorm has good outflow in the western semicircle.\n\nThe center has moved generally northward during the past 12 hr.\nHowever, the latest recon fixes and satellite imagery suggest that a\nnorth-northwestward motion is resuming at about 18 kt.  Nate is\nbetween a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the western\nGulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of high\npressure over the western Atlantic.  This combination should steer\nthe storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 36 h or so.\nAfter that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes\naround the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  While the guidance is in good agreement\nwith this scenario, there has been a rightward shift to the latest\nguidance, likely due to the recent northward motion.  The new\nforecast track is thus also shifted to the east of the previous\nforecast, and it now calls for the center of Nate to pass near or\nover the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about 12 h,\nfollowed by landfall on the northern Gulf Coast between 36-48 h.\nThe new track is in the center of the guidance envelope in good\nagreement with the various consensus models.\n\nConditions appear favorable for strengthening up to landfall on the\nnorthern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make landfall there as\na hurricane.  The new intensity forecast, which is an update of the\nprevious one, lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance.\nIt should be noted that the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS\nmodel continues to indicate an above normal chance of rapid\nintensification.  However, the current structure of the cyclone does\nnot favor rapid development.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the\nYucatan Peninsula later today bringing direct impacts from wind,\nstorm surge, and heavy rainfall. A tropical storm warning and a\nhurricane watch are in effect for a portion of this area, and\nlife-threatening flash flooding is also possible.\n\n2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of\nthe northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning has been issued\nfrom Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Alabama/Florida border.\nResidents in these areas should heed any evacuation instructions\ngiven by local officials.\n\n3. A hurricane warning has been has been issued for portions of the\nnorthern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to\nprotect life and property should be rushed to completion in these\nareas.\n\n4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 12 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the\neastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this\nweekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these\nareas.\n\n5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions\nof Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud\nslides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,\nPanama, and Belize through tonight.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 18.7N  85.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 21.3N  86.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 24.8N  88.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 28.1N  89.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 31.1N  88.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  09/1200Z 37.5N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  10/1200Z 42.0N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number  10...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n400 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017\n\nCORRECTED MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT IN KEY MESSAGES\n\nSatellite imagery this afternoon indicates that convection\nassociated with Nate is becoming better organized, with a strong\nconvective band now wrapping about three-quarters of the way around\nthe center.  Recent data from NOAA buoy 42056 near the center\nsuggest the central pressure has fallen to near 993 mb, and the\nbuoy just reported a 1-minute average wind of 49 kt.  Based on\nthis, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative\n50 kt.  The next aircraft investigating Nate is scheduled to arrive\nnear 22Z.\n\nThe initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/18 kt.  Nate\nremains between a complex deep-layer low pressure area over the\nwestern Gulf of Mexico and Central America and a building ridge of\nhigh pressure over the western Atlantic.  This combination should\nsteer the storm quickly north-northwestward for the next 24 h or so.\nAfter that, Nate should turn northward and northeastward as it goes\naround the western edge of the ridge and recurves into the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The guidance remains in good agreement\nwith the direction of motion, and it has come into better agreement\non the speed.  Thus, the new forecast track is similar to, but\nslightly to the west of the the previous track, and it calls for the\ncenter of Nate to pass near or over the northeastern tip of the\nYucatan Peninsula in about 6 h, followed by landfall on the northern\nGulf Coast around the 36-h point.  It should be noted that the\nECMWF and GFS are both a little to the left of the current track.\n\nConditions appear favorable for continued strengthening up to\nlandfall on the northern Gulf Coast, and Nate is expected to make\nlandfall there as a hurricane.  The new intensity forecast, which is\nan update of the previous one, lies near the upper edge of the\nintensity guidance.  Given the current developments, there is still\na possibility of a period of rapid intensification as Nate crosses\nthe Gulf of Mexico.  As alternative scenarios to the actual forecast\nof steady strengthening, the ECMWF forecasts no additional\nstrengthening as Nate crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the GFS/UKMET\nforecast little additional strengthening until the last 12 h before\nlandfall.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Nate could be near hurricane intensity when it passes near or\nover the Yucatan Peninsula during the next several hours bringing\ndirect impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. A\ntropical storm warning and a hurricane watch are in effect for a\nportion of this area, and life-threatening flash flooding is also\npossible.\n\n2. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions of\nthe northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in effect\nfrom Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in\nFlorida.  Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation\ninstructions given by local officials.\n\n3. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern\nGulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect\nlife and property should be rushed to completion in these\nareas.\n\n4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches from the central Gulf Coast states into the\neastern Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians through this\nweekend, resulting in the possibility of flash flooding in these\nareas.\n\n5. Heavy rainfall from Nate will continue to be a threat in portions\nof Central America, with life-threatening flash flooding and mud\nslides possible in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica,\nPanama, and Belize through tonight.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 20.3N  85.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 23.0N  87.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 26.8N  88.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 29.9N  89.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 33.1N  87.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  09/1800Z 39.5N  78.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  10/1800Z 43.5N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 06 2017\n\nRecent data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flights\nindicate that Nate continues to strengthen and is near hurricane\nstrength.  The NOAA plane measured a maximum 700-mb flight-level\nwind of 75 kt, but the SFMR instruments on both planes have only\nmeasured surface winds as high as 55 kt.  It seems that the highest\nwinds haven't quite mixed down to the surface, but it's likely that\nthe system is at least producing surface winds of 60 kt, which will\nbe the initial intensity for this advisory.  The NOAA flight also\nreported that an eyewall is forming to the east of Nate's center.\n\nNate has been accelerating toward the north-northwest between a\nlarge cyclonic gyre centered over southern Mexico and a mid-level\nhigh located over the southwestern Atlantic, and the initial motion\nestimate is 340/19 kt.  This north-northwestward motion is expected\nto continue for the next 24 hours, with Nate turning northward and\nslowing down only slightly around the time it is forecast to cross\nthe northern Gulf coast between 24-36 hours.  After landfall, the\ncyclone is expected to get swept up ahead of a large mid-latitude\ntrough, and accelerate northeastward over the eastern United\nStates.  At least up until landfall, the track guidance is in good\nagreement, and the NHC forecast is relatively unchanged from the\nprevious one.  After landfall, the new forecast is just a tad slower\nin order to give some credence to the slower solution provided by\nthe ECMWF model.\n\nAtmospheric and oceanic conditions appear conducive for Nate to\ncontinue strengthening up until the time it makes landfall along\nthe northern Gulf coast.  Nate is likely to become a hurricane\novernight, and the new NHC forecast has been raised to a peak\nintensity of 75 kt at 24 hours based on guidance from the SHIPS and\nLGEM models.  The intensity consensus and HCCA are lower than that\ndue to the HWRF solution, which shows absolutely no strengthening\nbefore landfall.  Disregarding that solution, it seems prudent to\nbe above the consensus, close to the upper end of the guidance\nenvelope.  Rapid intensification still cannot be ruled out since\nthe indices are showing a 50/50 chance of a 25-kt increase over\nthe next 24 hours.  If Nate becomes a hurricane soon, then\nadditional increases in the official intensity forecast may be\nnecessary in subsequent advisories.\n\nAircraft data indicate that Nate is an asymmetric storm, with most\nof the winds located on the eastern side of the circulation, and\nthis structure is likely to continue until landfall due to the\ncyclone's fast forward speed.  Therefore, locations to the east of\nwhere Nate makes landfall are expected to receive significantly\nstronger winds than locations to the west of the center. Regardless,\nthere is still too much uncertainty to know exactly where landfall\nwill occur, and all locations within the hurricane warning area\nshould be preparing for hurricane-force winds.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions\nof the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is now in\neffect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county\nline in Florida.  Residents in these areas should heed any\nevacuation instructions given by local officials.\n\n2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern\nGulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect\nlife and property should be rushed to completion in these\nareas.\n\n3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central\nGulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and\nsouthern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the the potential\nfor flash flooding in these areas.\n\n4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also\nbring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the\nlower Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday,\nwhich will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these\nlocations.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 22.3N  86.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 25.1N  87.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 28.5N  88.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 31.4N  88.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  09/0000Z 34.7N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  10/0000Z 40.5N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/0000Z 44.5N  63.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  12/0000Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Nate Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n400 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017\n\nAn Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Nate a couple of\nhours ago and measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb\nto the east of the center. No hurricane force winds were reported\nwest of the center.  The SFMR winds from that mission yielded an\ninitial intensity of 70 kt.  Since the plane left, the satellite\npresentation has changed little, so the winds remains with the same\nvalue in this advisory. Another reconnaissance plane is currently\napproaching Nate.\n\nThe outflow is well established suggesting that the shear is low,\nwhile the atmospheric conditions favor some additional\nstrengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for some slight\nincrease in the winds, however, the SHIPS/LGEM models forecast Nate\nto be a little bit stronger just before landfall.  After landfall,\nweakening is anticipated and Nate is forecast to dissipate in 96\nhours or sooner.\n\nNate is moving rapidly toward the north-northwest at about 19 kt.\nThe hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large cyclonic\ngyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a developing mid-level\nridge over the western Atlantic. This pattern should continue to\nforce Nate on a general north-northwest fast track for the next 24\nhours.  After that time, the hurricane will recurve northeastward\nwith additional increase in forward speed as it encounters the\nmid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast has not changed much\nfrom the previous one and is and is very close the HFIP corrected\nconsensus HCCA. This model has been very skillful this season.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Life-threatening storm surge flooding is likely along portions\nof the northern Gulf Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect\nfrom Morgan City, Louisiana, to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in\nFlorida.  Residents in these areas should heed any evacuation\ninstructions given by local officials.\n\n2. A hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern\nGulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, and preparations to protect\nlife and property should be rushed to completion in these\nareas.\n\n3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central\nGulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and\nsouthern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential\nfor flash flooding in these areas.\n\n4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also\nbring 2 to 4 inches with isolated totals of 6 inches across the\nOhio Valley into the central Appalachians Sunday into Monday,\nwhich will also increase the risk for flash flooding across these\nlocations.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 24.5N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 27.3N  88.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 30.4N  88.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 33.8N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  09/0600Z 37.0N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  10/0600Z 43.0N  70.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL CCA\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Nate Discussion Number  13...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017\n\nCorrected 24 kt motion to 23 kt motion in third paragraph\n\nNate is showing improved organization in satellite imagery this\nmorning, with the formation of a symmetric central dense overcast\nwith cloud tops colder than -80C.  In addition, Air Force Reserve\nand NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have reported a central pressure\nnear 984 mb inside a 25 n mi wide eye that is starting to form under\nthe overcast.  The planes have reported 700-mb flight level winds of\nup to 88 kt and surface wind estimates from the SFMR instrument\nbetween 75-85 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is\nincreased to a possibly conservative 80 kt.\n\nConditions appear favorable for Nate to continue strengthening for\nthe next 12 h or so before it encounters land and increasing shear.\nThe new intensity forecast thus follows the SHIPS model in showing\nNate become a Category 2 hurricane before landfall on the central\nGulf Coast.  After landfall, Nate should weaken rapidly as it moves\nthrough the eastern United States.  The cyclone is now forecast to\nbecome extratropical near the 72 hr point and dissipate completely\nby 96 h.\n\nThe initial motion is toward the north-northwest at a very rapid 23\nkt.  The hurricane is being steered by the flow between a large\ncyclonic gyre over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-level\nridge over the western Atlantic.  In addition, a mid-latitude trough\nin the westerlies is moving eastward through the central United\nStates.  This pattern is expected to cause Nate to turn northward\nduring the next 12-18 h as it rounds the western end of the ridge,\nfollowed by a turn toward the northeast as it enters the westerlies.\nThe new forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the\nprevious track, and it lies near the center of the tightly clustered\nguidance.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding\nnear and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm\nsurge warning is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana, to the\nOkaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.  Maximum flooding of 7 to 11\nfeet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern\nLouisiana and along the Mississippi coast.  Residents in these areas\nshould immediately heed any evacuation instructions given by local\nofficials.\n\n2. Nate is forecast to reach Category 2 intensity before landfall.\nA hurricane warning is in effect for portions of the northern Gulf\nCoast from Louisiana to Alabama, with the strongest winds expected\nto occur primarily to the east of the center.  Preparations to\nprotect life and property should be rushed to completion in these\nareas, as tropical storm conditions will first arrive in the warning\narea this afternoon.\n\n3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring tropical-\nstorm-force winds well inland across portions of the southeastern\nU.S.  Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions\nof southeastern Mississippi, Alabama, and western Georgia.\n\n4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central\nGulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and\nsouthern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for\nflash flooding in these areas.\n\n5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also\nbring 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals of 6 inches across\nthe Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which\nwill increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 26.6N  88.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 29.1N  89.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 32.1N  88.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  09/0000Z 35.7N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  09/1200Z 39.2N  80.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  10/1200Z 44.5N  67.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Nate Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n400 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017\n\nNate is sending mixed signals on its organization this afternoon.\nOn one side, the hurricane has a ragged central dense overcast with\na good complex of outer bands in the northeastern semicircle, and\nthere are hints of an eye trying to form.  On the other side, the\ncloud tops near the center have warmed significantly during the\npast several hours, and there are signs that vertical shear is\nstarting to affect the storm.  In addition, the eye only has\ndeep convection in the eastern semicircle in land-based radar\ndata.  The last reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft indicated that the central pressure was near 981 mb, with\nflight-level and SFMR winds supporting an intensity of 80 kt.  A\nnew aircraft is just starting its investigation of the hurricane.\n\nBetween the developing shear and the imminent landfall, Nate is\nabout out of time to strengthen.  While not explicitly shown in the\nintensity forecast, there could still be some intensification to\ncategory 2 status in the next few hours.  After landfall, Nate\nshould weaken rapidly as it moves through the eastern United\nStates. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h,\nextratropical near the 72 hr point, and dissipate completely\nby 96 h.\n\nThe initial motion is now 345/20.  Nate is moving around the\nwestern end of a low- to mid-level ridge over Florida and the\nwestern Atlantic, and the cyclone is expected to enter the mid-\nlatitude westerlies during the next 12-24 h.  This should cause\nNate to turn northward in the next several hours, then turn\nnortheastward after 12-24 h.  The new forecast track is similar in\nboth direction and speed to the previous track and lies near the\ncenter of a tightly clustered set of guidance.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding\nnear and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm\nsurge warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the\nOkaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.  Maximum flooding of 7 to 11\nfeet above ground level is expected in portions of southeastern\nLouisiana and along the Mississippi coast.\n\n2. Nate will bring hurricane conditions to portions of the northern\nGulf Coast from Louisiana to Alabama, where a hurricane warning is\nin effect.  The strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to\nthe east of the track of the center.\n\n3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring\ntropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the\nsoutheastern U.S.  Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect\nfor portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and\nwestern Georgia.\n\n4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central\nGulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and\nsouthern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for\nflash flooding in these areas.\n\n5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also\nbring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across\nthe Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which\nwill increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 28.4N  89.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 30.8N  89.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  08/1800Z 34.1N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  09/0600Z 37.9N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  09/1800Z 41.1N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/1800Z 46.0N  63.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Nate Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017\n\nA ragged central dense overcast persists over Nate's center, but\nradar trends have shown all of the deep convection migrating to the\nnorth and northeast of the center, likely due to increasing\nsouth-southwesterly shear.  Still, the northern eyewall, which will\nbe moving onshore the Mississippi coast soon, remains quite\nvigorous.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured\na maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 89 kt and some SFMR values\naround 70 kt.  Although the SFMR could be affected by wave shoaling\nin this case, the data as a whole appear to support an initial\nintensity of 75 kt.  Nate's central pressure has been rising\nslowly, with the latest report from the plane being 984 mb.\n\nNate has turned northward and slowed down a bit with an initial\nmotion of 360/17 kt.  On this course, the hurricane is expected to\nmake a second landfall along the Mississippi coast within the next\nhour or two.  After landfall, Nate should turn gradually toward the\nnortheast and accelerate again during the next day or two while it\nmoves between a large mid-level high off the southeastern U.S. coast\nand a large trough digging into the central U.S.  This steering\npattern will take Nate across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and\ncentral Appalachian Mountains during the next couple of days.  The\nnew NHC track forecast is unchanged from the previous one.\n\nWith landfall imminent, no changes in intensity are expected before\nthat time.  After landfall, land and increasing shear should\ncontribute to fast weakening, and Nate is expected to become a\ntropical storm in 6-12 hours and then weaken to a tropical\ndepression by 36 hours.  Nate is likely to become a remnant low by\n48 hours, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will be\nabsorbed by another low or cold front by 72 hours.  That scenario\nis now reflected in the NHC forecast.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding\nnear and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm\nsurge warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River\nto the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.  Maximum flooding of\n7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected along the Mississippi\ncoast within the next several hours.\n\n2. Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore along the coasts of\nMississippi and Alabama, where a hurricane warning is in effect.\nThe strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to the east of\nthe track of the center.\n\n3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring\ntropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the\nsoutheastern U.S.  Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect\nfor portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and\nwestern Georgia.\n\n4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central\nGulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and\nsouthern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for\nflash flooding in these areas.\n\n5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also\nbring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across\nthe Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which\nwill increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 29.9N  89.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 32.1N  88.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  09/0000Z 35.7N  85.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  09/1200Z 39.3N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  10/0000Z 42.1N  73.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Nate Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n400 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017\n\nThe eye of Hurricane Nate moved a few hours ago near or over the\nKeesler Air Force base, which is the home of the AF Hurricane\nHunters.  The winds became light and the pressure dropped to 986\nmb when the eye passed nearby that location a little after 0500 UTC.\nSince that time, Nate continued to move farther inland and surface\nobservations as well as Doppler radar data indicate that winds have\ndecreased. The initial intensity has been adjusted downward to 60\nkt. Since the circulation is already inland, rapid weakening is\nanticipated, and Nate is forecast to become a remnant low in about\n36 hours as suggested by SHIPS decay model.\n\nRadar fixes indicate that Nate is moving toward the north-northeast\nat 20 kt.  Nate is already embedded within the fast mid-latitude\nwesterlies, and this flow pattern should keep the cyclone on a\nnorth-northeast to northeast track with increasing forward speed\nfor the next 2 days.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Nate is producing life-threatening storm surge flooding in areas\nof onshore flow and a storm surge warning remains in effect from\nPointe a la Hache to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.\nMaximum flooding of 5 to 8 feet above ground level is expected\nalong the Mississippi coast within the next several hours.\n\n2. Nate's fast forward speed over land will bring tropical storm\nconditions well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S.\n\n3. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central\nGulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and\nsouthern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for\nflash flooding in these areas.\n\n4. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also\nbring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across\nthe Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which\nwill increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 31.5N  88.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 34.1N  86.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  09/0600Z 38.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  09/1800Z 42.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  10/0600Z 44.0N  71.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nate","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nate Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL162017\n1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017\n\nThe center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward\nover central Alabama.  Moderate westerly shear has caused most of\nthe deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east\nand northeast of the center, and surface observations show that\nNate has continued to rapidly weaken.  Wind gusts to tropical-storm\nstrength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the\nFlorida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained\ntropical-storm-force winds.  Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt\ntropical depression.  Nate is expected to become a remnant low on\nMonday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by\nfrontal system.  The intensity foreast keeps the wind speed around\n30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase\nalong the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on\nMonday when the post-tropical low approaches that area.\n\nNate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to\nnortheastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the\nnext 24 to 36 hours.  The cyclone is forecast to turn\neast-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal\nsystem.\n\nThis is the last NHC advisory on Nate.  Heavy rainfall associated\nwith Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the\nsouthern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the\nnext day or so.  Future information on Nate system can be found in\nPublic Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning\nat 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and\non the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  These advisories will\ncontinue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\ntotals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central\nGulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and\nsouthern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for\nflash flooding in these areas.\n\n2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also\nbring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across\nthe Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which\nwill increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.\n\n3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of\nthe Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon.\n\n4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along\nportions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products\nissues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for\nadditional information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 33.1N  87.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  09/0000Z 36.2N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  09/1200Z 40.1N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  10/0000Z 43.1N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  10/1200Z 45.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017\n\nThe well-defined low pressure system over the eastern Atlantic\nseveral hundred miles southwest of the Azores has maintained an\narea of deep convection near and to the east of the center for the\npast several hours.  Therefore, the system now meets the criteria\nfor a tropical depression.  The initial intensity is estimated to be\n30 kt based on ASCAT data from around 0000 UTC and a 2.0/30 kt\nDvorak classification from TAFB.\n\nThe depression is moving slowly northward at 3 kt, and a continued\nslow north to north-northeast motion is expected today.  A turn to\nthe east and then southeast is forecast to begin tonight and\ncontinue through Wednesday while the cyclone is steered by the flow\non the east side of a subtropical ridge.  Thereafter, a mid- to\nupper-level trough is expected to approach the depression, and that\nshould cause the system to move a little faster to the east and\neast-northeast.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the\nguidance envelope, in agreement with various consensus aids, and\nkeeps the system far from any land areas.\n\nThe depression is currently over marginally warm 27 deg C SSTs and\nin an environment of moderate to strong westerly shear.   The\nmodels suggest that the shear will likely let up a little during the\nnext couple of days, which could allow the depression to gradually\nstrengthen while it remains over relatively warm waters.  After that\ntime, the shear could increase again, but the amount of shear\ndepends on the exact track of the tropical cyclone.  There is a fair\namount of spread in the models at the longer range with the regional\nmodels (HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC) bringing the system to hurricane\nstrength while the statistical SHIPS and LGEM models show a much\nweaker system.  The NHC intensity forecast leans toward the more\nconservative side of the guidance for now, but it should be noted\nthat confidence in the intensity forecast is low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 31.1N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 31.5N  39.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 31.7N  39.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 31.5N  38.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 31.0N  37.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 29.7N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 29.7N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 31.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 AM AST Mon Oct 09 2017\n\nThe convective pattern of the small cyclone has continued to improve\nsince the previous advisory, with some thunderstorm activity having\ndeveloped near or over the center, along with an increase in curved\nbanding features in the eastern semicircle. The Dvorak intensity\nestimate at 1200Z from TAFB was T2.0/30 kt, but given the\naforementioned improvement in the curved-band structure since that\ntime, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. This makes\nOphelia the fifteenth named storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane\nseason.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 030/04 kt. The steering flow\nsurrounding Ophelia is expected to continue to be weak for the next\nday or so while the cyclone remains entangled with a weak\nupper-level low located just to its north and northwest. As a\nresult, only a slow drift toward the northeast and and east is\nforecast. By 36 h, increased mid-level ridging to the northwest of\nOphelia should induce a motion toward the east-southeast and\nsoutheast through 72 h, after which a broad mid-latitude trough is\nexpected to gradually accelerate the cyclone toward the northeast at\na forward speed of near 10 kt. The official forecast remains down\nthe middle of the guidance envelope, in close agreement with the\nprevious forecast track, and the HCCA and TVCX consensus models.\nOphelia should remain far away from land for the next 5 days.\n\nAlthough Ophelia is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs of\n26.5-27 deg C, much colder-than-normal temperatures aloft should\noffset the relatively cool ocean temperatures and produce sufficient\ninstability to generate moderate to strong convection for the next\n120 h. The GFS-based SHIPS model is currently assessing 25 kt of\nwesterly vertical wind shear, which obviously isn't occuring based\non the recent development of anticyclonic outflow over the low-level\ncenter and across most of Ophelia's circulation. In contrast, the\nUW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate lower shear values near 15 kt.\nHowever, both shear assessments are likely too high given the large\ndomains that they use to calculate environmental wind shear. Based\non recent trends noted in water vapor imagery showing the shear\ndecreasing, along with the overall favorable upper-level wind fields\nforecast by the GFS and ECMWF, especially after 36 hours, slow but\nsteady strengthening is expected for the next 5 days, with only\noccasional intrusions of dry mid-level air being the primary\ninhibiting factor to the intensification process. The official\nintensity forecast is close to the NOAA HCCA consensus model, is\nabout midway between the more aggressive IVCN consensus model that\nmakes Ophelia a hurricane in about 72 h, and the more conservative\nstatistical SHIPS and LGEM models. However, even the SHIPS and LGEM\nmodels have increased their peak intensity forecasts by at least 15\nkt since the previous advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 31.4N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 31.7N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 31.6N  38.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 31.3N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 30.7N  37.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 29.8N  36.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 30.5N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 32.0N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017\n\nOphelia's convective pattern has continued to steadily improve with\nthe formation of strong thunderstorms with cloud tops near -80C near\nthe center, along with the development of tighter curved banding\nfeatures in the southeastern semicircle. There has also been a\nnoticeable increase in lightning activity within 30 nmi of the\ncenter. The TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate at 1800Z was T2.5/35 kt.\nHowever, NHC objective Dvorak estimates are ranging from T3.2/49 kt\nusing a curved band pattern to T3.5/55 kt for a shear pattern. Based\non the aforementioned estimates and the continued improvement in\nOphelia's convective organization since the 1800Z TAFB estimate, the\ninitial intensity is increased to 40 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 055/03 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning.  Ophelia is\nexpected to remain embedded within a weak flow regime for the next\n72 hours due to the cyclone being cut off from the mid-latitude\nwesterlies, resulting in a slow and gradual turn toward the east and\nsoutheast during that time frame. Thereafter, a broad mid- to\nupper-level trough to the northwest, in conjunction with a building\nsubtropical ridge to the south, is forecast to gradually accelerate\nOphelia toward the northeast at a slightly faster forward speed of\nnear 10 kt. The new NHC forecast track is close to the northern edge\nof the guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF model, but the\nforward speed is slower than the ECMWF and similar to a blend of the\nHCCA and TVCX consensus models.\n\nOphelia is expected to remain over marginally warm SSTs of 26.5-27C,\nbut temperatures aloft that are 2-3 deg C colder than normal should\ncontinue to produce steep lapse rates and strong instability, which\nwill allow for deep convection to develop for the next 96 h or so.\nBoth the GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast the vertical wind\nshear to decrease sharply after 24 h, with the ECMWF forecasting\nshear values to decrease to less than 10 kt from 36-96 hours. Based\non the availability of strong instability and lower shear, slow but\nsteady strengthening is expected for the next 3-4 days, with only\nthe occasional entrainment of very dry mid-level air preventing\nrapid intensification from occurring, at least in the short term.\nAfter 96 h, Ophelia will be encountering increasing southwesterly\nwind shear of 15-20 kt and also be moving over 25C sea-surface\ntemperatures, a combination that should cap the intensification\nprocess and possibly even induce weakening. The SHIPS and LGEM\nstatistical models, along with the HCCA and IVCN consensus models,\nhave come into much better agreement on their intensity forecasts.\nTherefore, there is a higher degree of confidence in the official\nintensity forecast, which basically remains unchanged from the\nprevious advisory. Note, it is possible that Ophelia could reach a\nhigher peak intensity than indicated between 72-96 hours when the\nwind shear will be at its lowest value.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 31.5N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 31.6N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 31.4N  38.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 30.8N  37.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 30.1N  37.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 29.7N  36.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 31.0N  33.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 32.4N  30.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 PM AST Mon Oct 09 2017\n \nOphelia's center is just south of a broad curved band of deep\nconvection.  At synoptic time, the subjective Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB were both at 2.5, or 35 kt, while\nthe CIMSS SATCON was at 43 kt. Given the increasingly curved\nstructure of the bands during the last couple of hours, the initial\nintensity is set at 45 kt, a bit higher than the previous advisory.\n \nWhile the tropical storm is fighting some moderate vertical shear\ncurrently, the global models suggest that this should lighten some\nbetween now and about day 4 as Ophelia resides between the\nmid-latitude and subtropical westerlies.  Even though the system\nwill be traversing cool 26C SSTs, upper-tropospheric temperatures\nlikely will also be cool, allowing for deep convection to continue.\nThe mid-level moisture analyzed in the SHIPS guidance appears to be\nsomewhat dry, though the total precipitable water imagery shows\ndistinct moistening near the system during the last couple of days.\nThe official intensity forecast shows gradual intensification\nthrough day 3, then slow weakening thereafter.  This is close to a\nblend of the LGEM statistical guidance and the HWRF dynamical model\nand is slightly above that of the previous advisory.\n \nThe initial position has fairly small uncertainty as the\nlow-level center is along the southern edge of the deep\nconvection, as seen in the GOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery.\nOphelia is moving toward the northeast at about 6 kt - somewhat\nunexpectedly - this evening.  Despite this, the model guidance\nsuggests that a ridge will soon build in strongly north of Ophelia\nand force the tropical storm to the southeast and then south\nduring the next couple of days. Around day 3, Ophelia should get\nkicked out toward the east-northeast by an approaching trough in the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is north of\nthe previous forecast in the short term and east-northeast in the\nlong term, and is in between the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach\n(HCCA) and the previous forecast.\n \nThe initial tropical-storm-force wind radii was adjusted outward\nbased upon a 2137Z AMSU size analysis.  The official size forecast\nis based upon the RVCN consensus technique.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  10/0300Z 32.3N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 32.5N  38.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 32.0N  38.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 31.1N  37.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 30.4N  37.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 30.8N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 32.5N  32.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 34.5N  26.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n \n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017\n\nAlthough the intensity of Ophelia's deep convection has decreased\nduring the past several hours, the cloud pattern has improved\nand become more symmetric with banding features now better\nestablished around the center.  The initial intensity is held at 45\nkt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB and the\nlatest satellite consensus estimate from CIMSS at the University of\nWisconsin.\n\nThe recent decrease in convection could be associated with some dry\nair that has wrapped into the circulation, as seen in total\nprecipitable water imagery.  The other environmental conditions\nappear generally conducive for strengthening with wind shear values\nexpected to decrease to near 10 kt during the next couple of days\nwith SSTs remaining marginally warm around 26.5 to 27 deg C.\nThese conditions combined with an unstable atmosphere should allow\nOphelia to strengthen, and the NHC forecast follows the IVCN and\nHCCA consensus models and brings the cyclone to hurricane strength\nin 24 to 36 hours.  Although the official forecast shows slight\nweakening by the end of the period due to an increase in shear and\ncooler waters, the latest guidance suggests that the weakening\ncould be less than currently forecast.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Ophelia has made a turn to the\nsoutheast, as expected.   A continued slow southeast motion is\nforecast during the next 36 to 48 hours as mid-level ridging\nbuilds to the north and west of the storm.  After that time, a turn\nto the northeast or east-northeast at a progressively faster pace is\nexpected as a mid- to upper-level trough approaches Ophelia.  The\nmodels are in fairly good agreement, and only minor changes were\nmade to the previous NHC track forecast.  This prediction lies near\nthe middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 31.9N  38.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 31.7N  38.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 30.8N  37.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 30.2N  37.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 30.0N  36.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 31.0N  35.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 33.0N  30.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  15/0600Z 35.5N  23.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 AM AST Tue Oct 10 2017\n\nConvective banding has continued to become better defined since the\nprevious advisory, and an eye-like feature has developed in the\ncenter of the convection. However, despite the much improved\nsatellite appearance, it appears that the increased convective\norganization has not yet translated into an increase in the surface\nwinds based on a 1204Z ASCAT-B overpass, which only showed winds of\n30-31 kt in the southern quadrant. Some undersampling is likely due\nto the small 25-nmi radius of maximum winds, and two nearby ships\nwere under-sampled by at least 5 kt. Dvorak intensity estimates\nrange from T2.3/33 kt from UW-CIMSS to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB to\nT4.0/65 kt from SAB. For now, the initial intensity will remain at\n45 kt, which is an average of the scatterometer winds and all of the\nother available intensity estimates.\n\nOphelia has been lumbering along slowly toward the southeast during\nthe past 6 hours, and the initial motion estimate is now 130/04 kt.\nThe latest model guidance remains in excellent agreement on the\ncyclone moving slowly toward the southeast for next 48 hours or so.\nBy 72 hours, Ophelia is expected to turn northeastward and\ngradually accelerate into the westerlies ahead of a deep-layer\ntrough. Since the NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the\nprevious advisory track, only minor adjustments were made for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe intensity forecast isn't as straightforward as the track\nforecast due to the aforementioned differences in the intensity\nestimates. However, given that both the GFS and ECMWF models\naccurately predicted much lower intensity values of 35-40 kt for\nthe 1200Z initial time period, a blend of those models were used to\nconstruct the intensity forecast for this advisory package. In\naddition to the slightly lower intensity forecast, the wind radii\nwere also decreased both at the initial time and throughout the\nforecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 31.5N  38.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 30.9N  37.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 30.2N  37.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 29.8N  36.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 30.0N  36.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 31.2N  33.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 33.4N  28.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  15/1200Z 36.0N  21.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017\n\nThe overall convective structure of Ophelia has improved markedly\nover the past several, including the development of numerous,\ntightly curved bands and a burst of deep convection near the center.\nUpper-level anticyclonic outflow has also increased and expanded in\nall quadrants. Dvorak satellite current intensity estimates are\nT3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, so the initial\nintensity has been conservatively increased to 50 kt. A 28-30 kt\nwind report from ship PBQL, located more 200 nmi northwest of the\ncenter, indicates that the outer circulation is also strengthening.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 135/04 kt. Ophelia is forecast to\ncontinue moving southeastward at a slow but steady pace for the next\n48 hours or so while the cyclone remains embedded within a broad\nmid-/upper-level trough. The NHC model guidance remains in good\nagreement on the Ophelia beginning to lift out to the northeast by\n72 h, and then gradually accelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies\nahead of an eastward-moving mid-tropospheric trough. The latest\nmodel guidance remains tightly packed, but it has also shifted\nnorthward, which brings Ophelia closer to the Azores in the 96-120\nhour period. However, the new forecast track was not shifted\nnorthward and remains along the southern edge of the guidance\nenvelope between the NOAA HCCA consensus model and the more\nsoutherly ECMWF model.\n\nThe GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast only modest\nintensification for the next 48-72 hours, despite the vertical wind\nshear being fairly low at less than 10 kt. However, those models are\nforecasting more vigorous strengthening after 96 h as Ophelia\nexperiences some baroclinic interaction, especially by 120 hours.\nThe strong baroclinic deepening on day 5 could be overdone somewhat\ngiven that the best jetstream dynamics are forecast to be about 300\nnmi northwest of the surface low and frontal zone. For now, the\nofficial intensity forecast remains similar to the previous\nadvisory, and is little lower than the intensity consensus models\nHCCA and IVCN and the GFS and ECMWF solutions on days 4 and 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 31.1N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 30.6N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 30.2N  36.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 30.2N  36.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 30.5N  35.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 32.0N  32.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 34.7N  25.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  15/1800Z 39.0N  17.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 PM AST Tue Oct 10 2017\n\nOphelia has lost some of its outer banding this evening, but a\nwell-defined band of convection remains over the southeastern and\nsouthern portion of the circulation.  A 2322 UTC ASCAT overpass\nagain suggests that the winds are not as strong what is indicated by\nthe Dvorak satellite estimates.  The highest winds in the ASCAT pass\nwere 35 kt, but with some undersampling consideration the initial\nintensity is set to 45 kt.\n\nOphelia is moving southeastward or 140/5 kt. The cyclone should\ncontinue to move southeastward or east-southeastward during the\nnext 24 hours while it remains embedded within a mid- to\nupper-level trough.  After that time, Ophelia is forecast to turn\neastward, then northeastward and begin to accelerate by day 3 ahead\nof a deepening mid-latitude trough over the north-central Atlantic.\nThe latest run of the GFS shifted eastward and is very similar to\nthe 12Z ECMWF, and the previous NHC track forecast.  These\ntypically reliable models are along the southern edge of the track\nenvelope, and the NHC forecast remains there as well.\n\nThe cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and\nover marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3\ndays.  These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast\nagain calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 36 hours,\nalthough the forecast wind speed through 24 hours is slightly less\nthan the previous advisory due to the lower initial intensity.\nLater in the period, baroclinic dynamics are expected to keep\nOphelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic through day\n5 when the system is forecast to become fully extratropical.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 30.7N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 30.3N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 30.1N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 30.2N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 30.7N  35.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 32.5N  30.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 35.7N  23.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  16/0000Z 41.0N  14.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017\n\nOphelia has become better organized during the past several hours,\nwith convective banding now wrapping almost all of the way around\nthe center.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have\nincreased to 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, and several recent\nmicrowave-based intensity estimates are in the 55-65 kt range.\nBased on this, the initial intensity is increased to a possibly\nconservative 55 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 125/5.  Ophelia should continue to move\nsoutheastward or east-southeastward during the next 12-24 hours with\na decrease in forward speed while it remains embedded within a mid-\nto upper-level trough to the south of the mid-latitude westerlies.\nAfter that, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and\naccelerate by day 3 ahead of a deepening mid-latitude trough over\nthe north-central Atlantic.  The latest track guidance is in good\nagreement with this scenario.  However, there has been a significant\nnorthward shift in the 120 h forecasts since the last advisory.  The\nnew official forecast track is similar to the previous track through\n72 h, and then is adjusted northward at the 96 and 120 h points.  It\nshould be noted, though, that the 120 h point is to the south of the\nconsensus and large-scale models, and additional northward\nadjustments may be required later.\n\nThe cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and\nover marginally warm sea surface temperatures during the next 2 to 3\ndays.  These conditions favor strengthening and the NHC forecast\nnow calls for Ophelia to become a hurricane in about 24 hours.\nExtratropical transition is likely to start around day 4 and be\ncomplete by day 5, with the associated baroclinic dynamics expected\nto keep Ophelia a strong cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 30.2N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 29.9N  36.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 30.1N  35.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 30.5N  35.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 31.2N  34.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z 33.5N  28.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  15/0600Z 37.5N  20.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  16/0600Z 43.0N  13.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Ophelia Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 AM AST Wed Oct 11 2017\n\nIf I only had conventional satellite imagery, I would definitely\nestimate that Ophelia was a hurricane. The cyclone has a ragged eye\nsurrounded by deep convection and cyclonically curved bands.\nFurthermore, Dvorak intensity estimates, both subjective and\nobjective, from all agencies are T4.0 plus. However, several ASCAT\npasses during the past day or so indicate that the winds have been\nlower than the winds one could assign the cyclone by using Dvorak.\nOnce again this morning, a pair of ASCAT passes showed winds of\nless than 45 kt, but I am assuming that the ASCAT can not resolve\nthe sharp wind gradient typically associated with an eyewall, and\nearlier SSMIS data indicated that one is present. Since we do not\nhave a hurricane hunter plane to give us exact measurements, we\nneed to compromise between the very valuable satellite-based\nestimates, and the initial intensity is set at 60 kt in this\nadvisory.\n\nAlthough the ocean is not too warm, the shear is low and the\nupper-troposphere is cool. These factors should provide some\nlow-octane fuel favoring slight strengthening, and Ophelia is\nstill expected to become a hurricane at any time within the next 12\nhours. Extratropical transition is likely to start between day 3 and\nday 4, and Ophelia is anticipated to remain a strong cyclone over\nthe northeastern Atlantic.\n\nOphelia is moving slowly toward the east at 3 kt, embedded within\nlight steering currents, and little motion is expected today. A\nmid-level trough is forecast to amplify west of Ophelia, and this\npattern will provide a stronger southwesterly steering flow\nwhich eventually force the cyclone to move toward the northeast with\nincreasing forward speed. Most of the track models agree with this\nsolution increasing the confidence in the track forecast. The NHC\nforecast follows very closely the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA\nwhich has been very skillful this season.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 30.0N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 29.9N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 30.1N  35.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 30.8N  34.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 31.5N  33.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z 34.0N  26.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  15/1200Z 40.0N  17.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/1200Z 51.5N  12.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017\n\nIntensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly.  Dvorak\nestimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much\nhigher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind\nestimates.  Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak\nclassifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but\nsince that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.\nHowever, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the\nconvective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so\nit wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.\nIn an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has\nbeen increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it\nshould be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is\nhigher than normal.\n\nThe hurricane is moving slowly toward the east and the initial\nmotion estimate is 090/3 kt.  The hurricane is embedded within weak\nsteering flow, and only a slow northeastward drift is expected for\nthe next 24 h.  After that time, an approaching deep-layer trough\nshould force Ophelia to accelerate toward the northeast.  All of the\ndeterministic models are in fairly good agreement on the speed and\ntrack of Ophelia, however the various model ensembles suggest that\nthe uncertainty is much higher, especially regarding the forward\nspeed of Ophelia beyond 48 h.  The official track forecast favors\nthe deterministic model solutions, in part to maintain continuity\nwith the previous advisory.  The track forecast is therefore close\nto the multi-model consensus, but much faster than the various\nensemble mean aids.\n\nSince it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity\nforecast is low confidence.  All of the intensity guidance indicates\nthat strengthening is likely for the next 24 to 36 hours, however\nthe near stationary motion of the hurricane could induce some\nupwelling and limit the extent to which the hurricane may\nstrengthen.  Around 72 hours, the shear should begin to increase\nsubstantially as Ophelia begins to interact with the approaching\ntrough, and extratropical transition will likely begin, accompanied\nby a broadening of the wind field and a gradual decrease of the\nmaximum winds.  The global models indicate that this process will\ncomplete by 96 h.  The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher\nthan the previous forecast, but lies on the lower end of the\nintensity guidance for the first 72 h.  It is near the consensus\naids thereafter.\n\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 30.0N  36.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 30.3N  35.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 30.7N  35.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 31.4N  34.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 32.3N  31.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 35.5N  24.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  15/1800Z 43.0N  16.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  16/1800Z 53.5N  10.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Ophelia continues to get better\norganized.  The small eye has become better defined with deeper\nconvection near the center than 6 hours ago.  Intensity estimates\nhave continued to rise, and the objective/subjective Dvorak values\nrange from 77 kt to 90 kt.  The initial intensity is increased to\n75 kt, on the low end of the estimates since Ophelia is over\nmarginal water temperatures and might not be as strong as the\nsatellite suggests.  Further strengthening is possible given the\nfairly low shear environment and marginally warm SSTs, assuming the\nhurricane moves around enough to not upwell much cooler water.\nOphelia should keep hurricane-force winds before it transitions into\na strong extratropical low in 3-4 days.  The intensity forecast is\nhigher than the previous one, near the model consensus.  Almost all\nof the guidance now show Ophelia as a powerful extratropical low\naffecting Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain early next\nweek.\n\nThe hurricane is moving slowly toward the northeast, caught in an\narea of light steering south of a flat trough in the mid-latitude\nAtlantic.  This trough is forecast to amplify over the central\nAtlantic late Thursday, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or\neast-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few\ndays.  Little change was made to the forecast track, leaning on the\nECMWF side of the consensus, which results in generally a faster\ntrack than the previous prediction.\n\nAlthough all of the guidance keep the center offshore of the\nAzores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the\neastern Azores on Thursday because of the increasing wind radii in\nthe northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 30.0N  35.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 30.4N  35.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 30.9N  34.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 31.7N  32.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 32.8N  30.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 37.0N  22.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  16/0000Z 46.0N  14.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  17/0000Z 56.5N   8.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Ophelia continues to gradually\nbecome better organized, with the hurricane maintaining a\nwell-defined eye and the cloud tops in the eyewall gradually\ncooling.  The various subjective and objective satellite intensity\nestimates range between 75-90 kt, and based on the previous trend of\nthe intensity being near the lower end of the estimates, the initial\nintensity is kept at a possibly conservative 75 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 040/3.  Ophelia is currently in an area of\nlight steering currents to the south of the mid-latitude\nwesterlies.  The large-scale models forecast a deep-layer trough to\namplify over the central and northeastern Atlantic during the\nforecast period, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or\neast-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few\ndays.  The track guidance has changed little since the last\nadvisory, and the new forecast track, which leans toward the HFIP\nCorrected Consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, is an\nupdate of the previous forecast.\n\nOphelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear\nenvironment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next\n24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during\nthis time in agreement with the guidance.  After that, the hurricane\nis expected to move over cooler water.  As that happens, though,\ninteraction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help\nOphelia keep its intensity.  Extratropical transition should begin\nby 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic\nlow by 96 h.  The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should\naffect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h\nas a powerful extratropical low.\n\nAlthough the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the\nAzores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the\neastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in\nwind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 30.3N  35.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 30.7N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 31.3N  34.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 32.2N  32.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 33.7N  28.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 38.5N  20.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  16/0600Z 49.0N  13.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  17/0600Z 59.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017\n\nOphelia's satellite presentation consists of a distinct eye in\ninfrared imagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of -50C to -70C.\nThe initial intensity of 80 kt is based on a blend of the latest\nsubjective and objective Dvorak estimates, which range from 77 to\n95 kt.  Little change in intensity is expected during the next 48\nhours, as Ophelia will remain over SSTs of 25-26C and in a low\nto moderate shear environment.  After that time, the cyclone should\nbegin extratropical transition as it interacts with a potent\nmid-latitude trough moving eastward across the north Atlantic. This\nbaroclinic interaction should maintain Ophelia at hurricane\nintensity through 96 hours, with slow weakening expected after that\ntime as the extratropical cyclone occludes.\n\nOphelia has moved little since the last advisory, with the cyclone\ncurrently situated south of the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\ninitial motion estimate is a slow north-northeastward drift at\naround 2 kt.  A steadier northeastward motion should begin by 12 h\nwhen the aforementioned upper-level trough begins to exert influence\non Ophelia's motion.  An east-northeastward acceleration is expected\nat 24 through 48 h, followed by a turn back to the northeast and\nnorth-northeast at days 3 through 5 as Ophelia interacts with the\nsouthern portion of the trough.  Through the first 48 hours, the new\nNHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.  Later in the forecast period,\nthere remains a fair bit of east/west spread in the track of Ophelia\nnear Ireland and the United Kingdom, which isn't usual at these time\nranges.   The NHC forecast at these times is similar to the previous\none and lies on the right side of the deterministic guidance\nenvelope but is near the middle of the ECMWF, UKMET and GEFS\nensemble members.  Regardless of the exact track, post-tropical\nOphelia is likely to bring some impacts to Ireland and the United\nKingdom as a powerful extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.\n\nWhile the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia east of the\nAzores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the\neastern Azores later today or tonight because of the expected\nincrease in the size of the tropical-storm-force winds in the\nnorthwestern quadrant of the cyclone.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-\ntropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some\ndirect impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,\nas well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast\nuncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the\nexact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in\nIreland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of\nOphelia for the next several days.  For more information on local\nimpacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met\nEireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products\nissued by the Met Office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 30.5N  35.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 30.9N  34.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 31.6N  33.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 32.7N  30.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 34.4N  27.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 40.9N  18.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 51.0N  12.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  17/1200Z 60.5N   5.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017\n\nOphelia's structure has continued to improve during the afternoon.\nThe eye of the hurricane has cleared and is surrounded by a ring of\ncloud tops colder than -55 deg C.  Dvorak classifications from TAFB\nand the UW-CIMSS ADT have increased accordingly, and on that basis\nthe initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt.  Ophelia is\nnearly stationary, which could cause the hurricane to stop\nstrengthening, or even weaken slightly during the next 12 to 24\nhours due to upwelling effects.  That said, the intensity guidance\nis in good agreement that Ophelia will remain at hurricane strength\nfor the next 48 h while it remains in a fairly unstable, low-shear\nenvironment.  Beyond that time, extratropical transition will begin,\nthough baroclinic forcing will likely keep post-tropical Ophelia\nnear hurricane strength as it approaches Ireland and the UK.  The\nnew intensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, and\nis generally close to the multi-model intensity consensus.\n\nAlthough Ophelia is currently stationary, a mid-latitude trough\nshould cause it to begin moving toward the east-northeast within\nabout 24 hours.  The cyclone will then accelerate on that heading in\nthe faster mid-latitude westerly flow ahead of the trough, before\nturning toward the northeast around day 3 as extratropical\ntransition occurs and the hurricane becomes entangled with the\nsouthern extent of the trough.  Confidence in the track forecast is\nfairly high for the first 72 h, and all of the dynamical guidance is\ntightly clustered through this period.  The model spread increases\nsubstantially at 96 h and beyond.  As a post-tropical cyclone,\nOphelia will continue to interact with the southern extent of the\ntrough, and should turn toward the northeast as a result of this\ninteraction.  However, the details of this turn vary greatly from\nmodel to model.  The new NHC forecast has been nudged slightly\ntoward the east at this time range, closer to the UKMET and ECMWF\nmodels, as well as the corrected consensus aids HCCA and FSSE.\n\nWhile the track guidance keeps the center of Ophelia south and east\nof the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout\nthe Azores by Sunday due to an approaching front.  In addition, the\nwind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the cyclone begins\nextratropical transition, and any deviation to the left of the\nforecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands.  Interests\nin the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather\nForecast and Watch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-\ntropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some\ndirect impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,\nas well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast\nuncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the\nexact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in\nIreland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of\nOphelia for the next several days.  For more information on local\nimpacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met\nEireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products\nissued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 30.4N  35.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 31.0N  34.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 31.9N  32.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 33.2N  29.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 35.0N  25.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 42.6N  17.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 53.0N  10.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  17/1800Z 62.5N   2.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017\n\nRemarkably, the hurricane has continued to strengthen this evening.\nSatellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled\nin the past several hours, with a warm eye remaining.  Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB, SAB and CIMSS range between 90 to 95 kt, so the\ninitial intensity is raised to 90 kt.\n\nIt seems that the marginal SSTs that Ophelia has been moving over\nhave been offset by the cold upper-level temperatures and low shear\nenvironment.  SSTs only slightly cool in the next 24 hours with\nsimilar shear conditions, so a minor decrease in strength is in the\nforecast.  After that time, while the hurricane should move over\ncolder waters, it will likely be accelerating to the northeast and\nexperiencing favorable mid-latitude jet dynamics, which will help to\nmaintain the cyclone's intensity.  All of the guidance show\nextratropical transition by 3 days with the cyclone keeping\nhurricane-force winds, as indicated in the new forecast. Little\nchange was made to the previous prediction, except to account for\nthe higher initial wind speed.\n\nOphelia is finally moving, estimated at 6 kt to the east-northeast.\nThis general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected\nfor the next couple of days as the hurricane gets picked up by a\nlarge mid-latitude trough.  Confidence in the track forecast remains\nfairly high for the first 72 h, although the spread increases after\nthat time.  The GFS-based guidance generally then show a more\nnorthward track to the west of Ireland then over the far North\nAtlantic, while the UKMET/ECMWF show a track over Ireland and Great\nBritain then eastward and dissipating over northern Europe.\nThe forecast is close to the consensus at long range, but some large\nchanges could be required for later forecasts.\n\nWhile the NHC track keeps the center of Ophelia south and east\nof the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout\nthe Azores by Saturday night due to an approaching front.  In\naddition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as the\ncyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to the\nleft of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the\nislands. Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by\nthe Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-\ntropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some\ndirect impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,\nas well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast\nuncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the\nexact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in\nIreland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of\nOphelia for the next several days.  For more information on local\nimpacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met\nEireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products\nissued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 30.7N  34.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 31.2N  33.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 32.2N  31.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 33.7N  27.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 36.0N  23.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 45.0N  14.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  17/0000Z 56.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/0000Z 64.0N   0.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017\n\nOphelia's eye has become cloud filled during the past several hours,\nand an 0330 UTC GCOM microwave pass indicated that the hurricane\nonly had about half an eyewall, with nearly all of the deep\nconvection located over the eastern part of the circulation.\nHowever, the initial intensity remains 90 kt based on Dvorak CI\nnumbers of 5.0 from TAFB and SAB.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a little faster toward the\neast-northeast, or 070/7 kt, with Ophelia embedded in the flow ahead\nof a large mid-latitude trough pushing east of Atlantic Canada.  As\nthis trough swings eastward over the north Atlantic, Ophelia is\nexpected to continue accelerating and turn northeastward by day 3\nand north-northeastward by day 4.  There is high confidence in\nthe track forecast for the first 48 hours while Ophelia remains a\ntropical cyclone.  Although there is some model divergence after 48\nhours once Ophelia becomes extratropical, the global models remain\nrelatively tightly clustered through day 4, and they all agree that\nOphelia will track very close to the western shores of the British\nIsles on days 3 and 4.  As such, very little change was made to the\nNHC official forecast compared with the previous advisory.  There\nis significantly more spread in Ophelia's track by day 5, with the\nGFS moving Ophelia over the North Sea while the ECMWF and UKMET\nturn the cyclone eastward over Norway.  However, NHC's graphical\nproduct suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime\nMeridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4.\n\nVertical shear over Ophelia may decrease a bit over the next 24\nhours, and the hurricane will remain over marginally warm waters\nfor the next day or two.  Hence, only slight weakening is\nanticipated through 48 hours, and Ophelia is forecast to remain a\ntropical cyclone during that period.  Ophelia is then expected to\nmerge with an approaching cold front and develop into a warm\nseclusion by day 3 to the southwest of Ireland, with baroclinic\nforcing likely helping to maintain the cyclone's intensity for\nabout a day.  Some weakening is anticipated after day 3 while\nOphelia moves near the British Isles, but strong winds are becoming\nincreasingly likely over portions of Ireland and United Kingdom\nregardless of the cyclone's exact intensity.\n\nWhile the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south\nand east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible\nthroughout the Azores by Saturday night due to an approaching\nfront.  In addition, the wind field of Ophelia will likely expand as\nthe cyclone begins extratropical transition, and any deviation to\nthe left of the forecast track could bring stronger winds to the\nislands.  Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by\nthe Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-\ntropical cyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some\ndirect impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,\nas well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast\nuncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the\nexact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in\nIreland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of\nOphelia for the next several days.  For more information on local\nimpacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met\nEireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to\nproducts issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 31.1N  33.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 31.8N  32.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 33.1N  29.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 35.0N  25.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 37.9N  20.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 47.9N  13.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  17/0600Z 57.5N   6.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/0600Z...EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 AM AST Fri Oct 13 2017\n\nThe eye of Ophelia has become a bit more apparent in visible and\ninfrared imagery during the past couple of hours, but the cloud tops\naround the eye have also warmed recently. The initial intensity is\nset to 85 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective\nDvorak CI and Final-T numbers. The hurricane will remain in an\nenvironment of marginal SSTs and light to moderate shear for the\nnext day or so, which suggests little change in intensity during\nthat time. By 36 hours, the shear will begin to increase as a\npowerful upper-level trough approaches from the west, but Ophelia\nshould remain at hurricane force during extratropical transition as\nit undergoes a favorable interaction with the aforementioned trough\nand takes on a warm seclusion structure. The transition process\nis expected to be complete by 72 hours, and post-tropical Ophelia\nshould gradually weaken as the cyclone occludes beneath the upper\ntrough. The low-level circulation of Ophelia is expected to\ndissipate over Scandinavia by day 5.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 060/10. The track forecast reasoning\nremains unchanged from the previous advisory. Ophelia should move\neast-northeastward ahead of the approaching upper-level trough with\na steady increase in forward speed through the next 24 hours. The\nhurricane should turn northeastward by 48 hours followed by a\nnorth-northeastward motion at days 3 and 4. The track model guidance\nis in good agreement on this overall scenario, but there are some\ndifferences in forward speed beyond 48 hours. The new NHC track\nis similar to the previous one and lies between the latest TVCA\nmulti-model consensus and the HCCA corrected consensus aid through\nthe forecast period. On this track, the center of Ophelia is\nexpected to move southeast of the Azores during the next 36 hours\nand then move near or over Ireland and the western part of the UK in\n3 to 4 days. Given the expected increase in the size of Ophelia's\nwind field during extratropical transition, impacts from strong\nwinds and rain are becoming increasingly likely over portions of the\nBritish Isles regardless of the exact track of the center.\n\nWhile the NHC track continues to keep the center of Ophelia south\nand east of the Azores, tropical-storm-force winds are possible\nthroughout the Azores beginning late Saturday or Saturday night due\nto an approaching cold front. Any deviation to the left of the\nforecast track could bring stronger winds to the islands. Interests\nin the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather\nForecast and Watch Center.\n\nA 1242 UTC ASCAT-B pass was helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind\nradii around Ophelia.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical\ncyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United\nKingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of\nthese areas are becoming more likely, along with dangerous marine\nconditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location\nof impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should\nrefer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United\nKingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 31.8N  32.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 32.6N  30.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 34.1N  27.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 36.5N  22.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 40.7N  17.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 51.0N  11.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  17/1200Z 60.0N   4.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017\n\nOphelia's eye has become better defined over the past 6 hours.\nAlthough cloud tops near the inner core of the hurricane are warmer\nthan 24 hours ago, a ring of -50 deg C or colder cloud tops still\nsurrounds the eye.  Dvorak current intensity estimates have not\nchanged substantially, and a blend of objective and subjective\nclassifications still supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.\n\nLittle change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a\nhurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path\nwill likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures\nfor the next 36 h.  Extratropical transition will likely begin\nshortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large\nupper-level trough approaching from the west.  The dynamical\nguidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the\ntrough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can\nnot rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes\nextratropical transition.  By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to\nocclude and begin weakening, though the expansion of the wind field\nwill result in impacts over portions of the British Isles,\nregardless of its exact location or strength.  By 96 hours,\ncontinued weakening and interaction with land will likely cause the\nsurface circulation to become ill-defined, and dissipation is\nexpected shortly thereafter.\n\nOphelia is beginning to accelerate toward the east-northeast and the\ninitial motion estimate is 060/11 kt.  Very little change has been\nmade to the official track forecast.  Ophelia is still expected to\ncontinue picking up speed on an east-northeast heading while passing\nsouth of the Azores during the next 24 to 36 hours.  By 48 hours,\ninteraction with the aforementioned upper-level trough will cause\nOphelia to turn toward the northeast and approach Ireland and the\nwestern UK in about 72 h.  The track guidance is tightly clustered,\nespecially through 72 h, and the new NHC track forecast is close to\nthe various multi-model consensus aids.  Although the center of\nOphelia is not expected to reach Ireland or the UK until about day\n3, wind and rain effects will arrive well in advance of the cyclone\ncenter.  Individuals in those locations should consult products from\ntheir local meteorological service for more information on local\nimpacts.\n\nTropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores\nbeginning late Saturday or Saturday night due to an approaching cold\nfront.  Any deviation to the left of Ophelia's forecast track could\nbring stronger winds to the islands.  Interests in the Azores should\nrefer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch\nCenter.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical\ncyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United\nKingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of\nthese areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For\nmore details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from\npost-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products\nissued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should\nrefer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 32.3N  31.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 33.4N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 35.2N  25.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 38.2N  20.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 43.1N  16.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 53.2N  10.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  17/1800Z 60.5N   2.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 PM AST Fri Oct 13 2017\n\nThe eye of Hurricane Ophelia continues to be remarkably distinct on\nsatellite and remains surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An\naverage of objective and subjective Dvorak numbers still support an\ninitial intensity of 85 kt. The hurricane has managed to move\nthrough an area of relatively low shear and maintain its intensity\nso far. This is about to change in a day or so when a cold front\nreaches the circulation of the hurricane and the shear increases\nsubstantially. By then, any increase in intensity should be\ntriggered by baroclinic forces as the cyclone becomes extratropical.\nThe NHC forecast calls for Ophelia to become extratropical in about\n48 hours and dissipate or absorbed by another large low beyond 4\ndays.\n\nGiven that the cyclone is forecast to become extratropical, the wind\nfield should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the\nBritish Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.  By 96\nhours, Ophelia should have weakened due to the interaction with\nland, causing the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and\ndissipation is expected shortly thereafter.\n\nNow that the cyclone is well embedded in the mid-latitude\nwesterlies, it is moving faster toward the east-northeast or 060\ndegrees at 17 kt.  An additional increase in forward speed is\nanticipated as a large high-latitude trough accelerates the westerly\nflow. Track models are in very good agreement and this increases the\nconfidence in the NHC forecast which is in the middle of the tight\nguidance envelope.\n\nAlthough the center of Ophelia is not expected to reach Ireland or\nthe UK for another 2-3 days, wind and rain effects will arrive\nwell in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for more information on local impacts.\n\nTropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores\nbeginning Saturday night primarily due to an approaching cold front.\nHowever, any track deviation to the left could bring stronger winds\nassociated with Ophelia's circulation to the islands. Interests in\nthe Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather\nForecast and Watch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical\ncyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United\nKingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of\nthese areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For\nmore details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from\npost-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products\nissued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should\nrefer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 33.0N  30.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 34.3N  27.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 36.5N  23.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 40.3N  17.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 46.0N  14.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  17/0000Z 56.0N   7.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/0000Z 62.0N   1.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017\n\nOphelia's 20-nmi-diameter eye has continued to become more distinct\nand cloud-free, with the eye temperature now reaching 15 deg C.\nSatellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from TAFB to\nT5.0/90 kt from SAB and T5.5/102 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. For now, the\ninitial intensity will remain at 85 kt, which is an average of the\navailable intensity estimates.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 060/21 kt. Ophelia is embedded within\ndeep-layer southwesterly flow on the east side of a broad\nmid-latitude trough. The global and regional models remain in\nexcellent agreement on the trough amplifying over the next 3-4 days,\nwhich will cause the hurricane to accelerate toward the northeast at\nforward speeds near 30 kt by 48 hours. The tight clustering of the\nNHC model guidance, which shows very little cross-track or\nalong-track spread, increases the confidence in the official track.\nAs a result, no significant changes were made to the previous\nadvisory, and the new forecast track remains near the middle of the\nguidance envelope, close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus models.\n\nOphelia is expected to remain in relatively low vertical wind shear\nenvironment for the next 12 hours or so, which should help the\nhurricane retain much of its current intensity during that time,\neven though SSTs are only going to be 24-25C. However, upper-level\ntemperatures that are still about 2 deg C cooler than normal, which\nwill help to create sufficient instability to continue to drive the\ndevelopment of inner-core convection. By 36 hours or so, the shear\nis forecast to increase to 30-40 kt and the troposphere is expected\nto become stable as sea-surface temperatures decrease to less than\n20 deg C. However, even those SST values are about 2 deg C warmer\nthan normal for this time of the year. Those above-average ocean\ntemperatures are forecast to combine with strong baroclinic energy\nassociated with a potent, negatively tilted, upper-level trough,\ncausing Ophelia to transition into a powerful extratropical low\npressure system. By 48 hours, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast\nto maintain sustained hurricane-force winds as it approaches\nIreland, with stronger winds expected over higher terrain.\n\nGiven that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind\nfield should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the\nBritish Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.  By 96\nhours, Ophelia should have weakened due to the interaction with\nland, causing the surface circulation to become ill-defined, and\ndissipation is expected shortly thereafter.\n\nAlthough the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or\nthe UK for another 48-60 hours, wind and rain effects will arrive\nwell in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for more information on local impacts.\n\nTropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores\nbeginning tonight, primarily due to an approaching cold front.\nHowever, any track deviation to the west could bring stronger winds\nassociated with Ophelia's circulation to those islands. Interests\nin the Azores should refer to products issued by the Azores Weather\nForecast and Watch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to become a hurricane-force post-tropical\ncyclone by Monday before it moves near Ireland and the United\nKingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of\nthese areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For\nmore details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from\npost-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products\nissued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should\nrefer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 33.9N  28.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 35.3N  25.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 38.3N  20.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 43.0N  16.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  16/0600Z 48.4N  12.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  17/0600Z 57.4N   6.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/0600Z 63.1N    .5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 AM AST Sat Oct 14 2017\n\nDuring the past few hours, Ophelia's satellite presentation has\nimproved significantly. The eye has become even more distinct\nwith a temperature of 16 deg C, and has been surrounded by very\ndeep convection. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB have reached 5.5 on the\nDvorak scale, and the objective numbers from CIMMS have been\noscillating around T5.8 and T5.9 recently. Based on these estimates,\nthe initial intensity has been increased conservatively to 100 kt,\nmaking Ophelia a category 3 hurricane on the SSHS.  Ophelia is a\nquite intense and rare hurricane for its location in the\nnortheastern Atlantic. Increasing shear and cold waters will\nsoon begin to impact Ophelia, and the hurricane should begin to\nacquire extratropical characteristics in about 36 hours or sooner.\nAlthough some weakening is anticipated, Ophelia is expected to reach\nthe British Isles as a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane\nforce winds. Dissipation is forecast in about 4 days after the\nsystem moved over these Isles.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the northeast\nor 055 degrees at 22 kt. The hurricane is well embedded within the\nsouthwesterly flow associated with the southern extension of a large\nmid-latitude trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the\ncyclone northeastward and north-northeastward with increasing\nforward speed for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation. Track\nmodels are in excellent agreement and the guidance envelope is quite\ntight. The NHC forecast is not different from previous ones, and it\nis very close to the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the\nmulti-model ensemble TVCX.\n\nGiven that Ophelia is forecast to become extratropical, the wind\nfield should expand, resulting in impacts over portions of the\nBritish Isles regardless of its exact location or strength.\n\nAlthough the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or\nthe UK for another couple of days, wind and rains will arrive\nwell in advance of the cyclone center. Individuals in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for more information on local impacts.\n\nTropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores\nafter Ophelia passes to the south and east later today and tonight\nas a cold front moves through the islands.  Interests in the Azores\nshould refer to products issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and\nWatch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with\nhurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions\nof these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.\nFor more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts\nfrom post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to\nproducts issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom\nshould refer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 34.8N  26.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 36.5N  23.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 40.5N  18.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 46.5N  14.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  16/1200Z 51.5N  11.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  17/1200Z 59.0N   6.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017\n\nOphelia continues to have an impressive appearance in satellite\nimagery.  The eye has remained clear all afternoon, surrounded by a\nvery symmetric ring of cold cloud tops.  Since the cloud pattern has\nnot changed significantly over the past few hours, the intensity has\nbeen held at 100 kt. Microwave imagery and scatterometer retrievals\nindicate that beneath the cold canopy, Ophelia's structure is\nbeginning to deteriorate, at least slightly. A GMI overpass around\n1700 UTC indicated that the vortex is beginning to tilt toward the\neast with height, probably a result of increasing southwesterly\nshear associated with a large upper-level trough to the west.\nFurthermore, a pair of earlier ASCAT passes suggested that an\napproaching cold front is already infringing on the NW quadrant of\nthe circulation, within about 80 n mi of Ophelia's eye.  Given the\nclose proximity of the cold front and upper-level trough,\nextratropical transition will likely begin within about 12 hours.  A\nfavorable baroclinic environment may allow the cyclone to deepen as\nthe wind field increases in size, so only a slight decrease of the\nmaximum wind is expected through 36 hours.  After that time, the\npost-tropical cyclone will likely occlude and interact with land,\ncausing a faster rate of weakening and resulting in the eventual\ndissipation of the surface circulation in about 96 hours.\n\nOphelia continues to pick up forward speed and the initial motion\nestimate is now 055/24 kt.  The hurricane remains embedded within\nthe southwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned mid-latitude\ntrough, and this will keep Ophelia on a northeast or north-northeast\nheading through the next 72 hours.  The track guidance remains in\nfairly good agreement, though it has shifted southward a little for\nthe first 24 hours.  The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in\nthat direction, and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus throughout\nthe forecast period.\n\nAlthough the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or\nthe UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of\nthe cyclone center. Individuals in those locations should consult\nproducts from their local meteorological service for more\ninformation on local impacts.\n\nTropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores\nafter Ophelia passes to the south and east tonight as a cold front\nmoves through the islands.  Interests in the Azores should refer to\nproducts issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with\nhurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions\nof these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.\nFor more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts\nfrom post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to\nproducts issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom\nshould refer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 35.9N  23.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 38.0N  20.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 42.8N  15.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 48.8N  12.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  16/1800Z 54.0N   9.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  17/1800Z 59.5N   3.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 PM AST Sat Oct 14 2017\n\nOphelia remains an impressive hurricane in infrared satellite\nimagery.  The hurricane continues to exhibit a large well-defined\neye within a ring of cold cloud tops.  However, the overall cloud\npattern has started to elongate and there has been a slight erosion\nof the area of cloud tops over the west and southwest portions of\nthe circulation as dry air and a frontal boundary encroaches on the\nhurricane.  Satellite intensity estimates from all agencies\ncontinue to support an intensity of 100 kt.  The aforementioned\nchanges in the cloud pattern and an expansion of the wind field as\nnoted by an earlier ASCAT overpass suggest that extratropical\ntransition has begun.  The wind field is expect to significantly\nexpand over the next 12 to 24 hours, which is likely to lead to a\ngradual decrease in the maximum winds.  Ophelia is forecast to\ncomplete extratropical transition within 24 hours, but it is\nexpected to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone with\nhurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday.  The\nsystem is forecast to occlude and interact with land, which\nshould cause a faster rate of weakening in 48 to 72 hours, with\ndissipation expected shortly thereafter.\n\nOphelia is moving northeastward, or 055/24 kt ahead of a\nmid-latitude trough moving over the northeastern Atlantic.  The\nhurricane should continue to accelerate northeastward tonight, then\nturn north-northeastward with an additional increase in forward\nspeed by late Sunday and Sunday night.  After the system occludes in\na couple of days, it should begin to slow down. The track guidance\nis in good agreement, and the updated NHC track forecast is very\nclose to the previous advisory.\n\nAlthough the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or\nthe UK until Monday, wind and rains will arrive well in advance of\nthe cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult\nproducts from their local meteorological service for more\ninformation on local impacts.\n\nTropical-storm-force winds are possible throughout the Azores\ntonight behind a cold front that has moved through the islands in\nthe wake of Ophelia. Interests in the Azores should refer to\nproducts issued by the Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with\nhurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions\nof these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.\nFor more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts\nfrom post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to\nproducts issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom\nshould refer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 37.3N  21.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 40.1N  17.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 45.7N  13.8W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  16/1200Z 51.4N  10.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/0000Z 56.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/0000Z 60.0N   2.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017\n\nAlthough the satellite appearance of Ophelia has been slowly\ndegrading this morning, the cyclone remains an impressive hurricane\ndue to it being over the relatively cool waters of the northeastern\nAtlantic. A testament to Ophelia's strength is a late arriving buoy\nreport 25 nmi southeast of the center of the eye from around 0200Z,\nwhich indicated that the pressure in the southeastern portion of the\nlarge eye or eyewall was 970.9 mb. However, Dvorak intensity\nestimates have been steadily decreasing since that buoy report, so\nthe intensity has been lowered to 90 kt for this advisory.\n\nOphelia continues to accelerate and the hurricane is now moving\n050/30 kt. Water vapor imagery indicates that a deepening trough\njust to west of Ophelia is moving quickly eastward, and that the\ncyclone is now well embedded within the deep-layer southwesterly\nflow on the east side of the trough. As a result, Ophelia is\nexpected to turn toward the north-northeast by tonight and be\naccompanied by a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC model\nguidance remains in excellent agreement on Ophelia reaching the\nsouthern coast of Ireland in 24-30 hours, and then move across\nthe remainder of the country Monday night, and then move across\nNorthern Ireland and northern Great Britain on Tuesday.\n\nOphelia is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by 24 hours\nwhen extratropical transition should be completed, although the\ntransition to an extratropical cyclone could occur as early as 12\nhours. Regardless of the exact timing, post-tropical cyclone Ophelia\nis forecast to remain a powerful storm with hurricane-force winds\nwhen it reaches Ireland on Monday.  The system is forecast to\nocclude and interact with land, which should cause a faster rate of\nweakening in 48 to 72 hours, with dissipation expected shortly\nthereafter.\n\nAlthough the center of Ophelia is not forecast to reach Ireland or\nthe UK until Monday, strong winds and rains will arrive well in\nadvance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should\nconsult products from their local meteorological service for more\ninformation on local impacts.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with\nhurricane force winds Monday while it moves near Ireland and the\nUnited Kingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions\nof these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions.\nFor more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts\nfrom post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to\nproducts issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom\nshould refer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 39.0N  18.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 43.0N  15.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 49.0N  11.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  16/1800Z 54.0N   8.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/0600Z 57.7N   4.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/0600Z 60.8N    .1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017\n\nAfter displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery\nindicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate\nand the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also\nweakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to\ndecrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the\ntechnique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80\nkt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear,\nOphelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical\ncyclone later today.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the\nnorth-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the\nfast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to\npersist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before\ndissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement\nand most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the\nsouthern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time).\nThereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain\nuntil dissipation.\n\nStrong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will\narrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those\nlocations should consult products from their local meteorological\nservice for more information on local impacts.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with\nhurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United\nKingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of\nthese areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For\nmore details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from\npost-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products\nissued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should\nrefer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 41.6N  16.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 46.0N  13.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  16/1200Z 51.5N   9.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  17/0000Z 57.0N   5.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/1200Z 60.5N   1.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017\n\nOphelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and\nshortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level\ncenters are becoming separated.  However, some deep convection is\nstill present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC\nindicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is\nseparated from a front to the north and west.  The estimated maximum\nwinds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay\nof the cloud structure.  However, the cyclone's favorable position\nrelative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to\ndeepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially.  Only\na slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before\nthe post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland.  After that time,\ninteraction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to\nweaken more rapidly.  Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is\nlikely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of\nScandinavia.\n\nOphelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the\ninitial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt.  There has been no change\nto the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded\nwithin the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough.  This\nshould keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over\nIreland and the UK on Monday.  The dynamical guidance remains in\nvery good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change\nhas been made to the track forecast.\n\nSince Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the\nUK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than\nthe center. For more information on local impacts, consult products\nfrom local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom\nfor more information.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with\nhurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United\nKingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of\nthese areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For\nmore details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from\npost-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products\nissued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should\nrefer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia\nsince strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of\nthe NHC forecast cone.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 44.6N  13.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 49.2N  11.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  16/1800Z 54.3N   7.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  17/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017\n1100 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017\n\nWithin just the past six hours, the last bit of deep convection\nnear Ophelia's center has been sheared off well to the north, and\nthe cyclone has acquired a definitive extratropical structure.\nOphelia has completed its transition to an occluded low, with an\nattached warm front extending northeastward across Ireland and a\ncold front draped southeastward toward Spain and Portugal.  The\npowerful cyclone continues to produce hurricane-force winds, with\nrecent ASCAT data showing wind vectors as high as 70 kt to the east\nof the center.  Based on these data, the initial intensity remains\n75 kt to account for undersampling.  The occluded low is forecast to\ngradually fill and weaken during the next couple of days, and it is\nlikely to dissipate near the western coast of Norway by 48 hours.\nDespite the expected weakening, the post-tropical cyclone is still\nlikely to bring hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, to\nportions of western Ireland on Monday.\n\nOphelia has accelerated and retrograded slightly during the past\n6-12 hours during the occlusion process, and the long-term motion\nestimate is northward, or 010/38 kt.  Now that occlusion is\ncomplete, the post-tropical cyclone should resume a north-\nnortheastward motion, with some decrease in forward speed, within\nthe next 12 hours.  That heading should continue for the ensuing day\nor two, bringing the center of the cyclone near the western coast of\nIreland on Monday and then near northern Scotland Monday night.\nThe dynamical track models remain in good agreement on this\nscenario, and the updated NHC forecast is not too different from\nthe previous one.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\nnow that Ophelia has become post-tropical.  Local forecasts,\nwarnings, and other communications regarding the post-tropical\ncyclone that are pertinent to Ireland and the United Kingdom will\ncontinue to be available from Met Eireann and the UK Met Office.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Ophelia will remain a powerful extratropical cyclone with\nhurricane-force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United\nKingdom Monday and Monday night.  Strong winds and heavy rain are\nlikely in portions of these areas, along with dangerous marine\nconditions.  For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location\nof impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should\nrefer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the\nUnited Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.\n\n2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia\nsince strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of\nthe NHC forecast cone.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 49.2N  13.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 12H  16/1200Z 53.2N  10.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  17/0000Z 57.4N   5.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  17/1200Z 61.9N   0.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Selma","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP202017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Selma Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017\n400 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that deep convection has become more\nconcentrated over the past several hours in the western semicircle\nof the low over the far eastern part of the eastern Pacific.\nScatterometer data from overnight also indicate that the low has\nbecome well defined, with winds of about 35 kt. Thus, advisories are\nbeing initiated on Tropical Storm Selma.  This is a rare location\nfor a tropical storm to form in the eastern Pacific, and this is the\nonly the second tropical storm to form on record east of 90W that\ndidn't come from an Atlantic cyclone (the first was Alma 2008).\n\nA weak ridge of high pressure over southeastern Mexico is causing\nthe storm to move slowly northwestward.  However, this pattern is\nforecast to change quickly as the ridge breaks down due to a large\nmid-latitude trough dropping into the Gulf of Mexico during the\nnext 24 hours.  This pattern should steer Selma toward the north\nover the weekend, although the models are in rather poor agreement\non exactly when that turn occurs.  To complicate matters, there is\nalso some chance of interaction with the Caribbean disturbance AL93,\nwith the models showing the most interaction, such as the UKMET or\nECMWF, having tracks on the eastern side of the guidance envelope.\nThe GFS-based guidance shows little interaction and shows a track\nmore toward Guatemala.  The NHC forecast splits the difference\nbetween the model consensus and the ECMWF, and is just east of the\nlatest NOAA-corrected consensus, necessitating a Tropical Storm\nWarning for El Salvador.  This is a low confidence forecast due to\nthe large spread in the guidance and a Tropical Storm Watch or\nWarning could be required for portions of the coast of Guatemala\nlater today.\n\nSelma has a day or so of very warm waters and light-to-moderate\nshear in its path.  These conditions should promote strengthening,\nand the NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the bulk of the\nmodels.  It should be emphasized, however, that the most significant\nhazard expected with Selma is heavy rainfall. Up to 10 inches of\nrain are possible over El Salvador and southern Guatemala, which\ncould cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 10.7N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 11.3N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 12.5N  90.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 13.7N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Selma","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP202017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Selma Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017\n1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017\n\nSelma is a sheared tropical cyclone. Early morning visible\nsatellite images and recent microwave imagery show that the center\nis located near the northeastern edge of a small, but persistent\ncluster of deep convection.  The latest subjective Dvorak intensity\nestimates are still below tropical storm strength, but the initial\nintensity remains at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier\nscatterometer data.\n\nRecent satellite and microwave fixes indicate that Selma is moving\nnorthwestward at about 4 kt.  A weak ridge to the north of the\ntropical cyclone is forecast to weaken today as a large mid-latitude\ntrough moves into the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should cause\nSelma to turn northward toward the Pacific coast of Central America\ntonight and early Saturday.  However, there is a large spread in the\nguidance regarding the sharpness of the turn.  The UKMET shows an\nimmediate northward or northeastward motion and is along the right\nside of the guidance envelope.  On the opposite side of the envelope\nare the GFS, HWRF, and HMON, which depict a longer north-\nnorthwestward motion and bring Selma inland near western Guatemala.\nThe NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF and HFIP corrected\nconsensus models, which are a little to the right of the multi-model\nconsensus.   Given the large uncertainty in the track forecast, the\ngovernment of Guatemala has issued a tropical storm watch for the\nentire Pacific coast of Guatemala.\n\nThe shear over Selma appears to be a little stronger than initially\nexpected, and the SHIPS guidance does not show any decrease in this\nshear during the next day or so.  As a result, only slight\nstrengthening is indicted before landfall, and the NHC forecast is\nclose to the various consensus models.  Since the system is small,\nit is expected to weaken and dissipate very quickly after it moves\ninland over the high terrain of Central America.\n\nIt should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma\nis heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches\nover portions of El Salvador and Guatemala.  This rainfall could\ncause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 11.1N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 11.8N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 13.0N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 14.2N  89.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n500 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017\n\nData from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\ninvestigating the disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean Sea\nindicate that the system does not yet have a well-defined center. In\nfact, the aircraft data and satellite imagery suggest that there are\nmultiple circulations embedded within a broader circulation at this\ntime. Given the lack of a well-defined center, the system is not a\ntropical cyclone, but since tropical storm conditions are expected\nto affect Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas in the next 24 to 36\nhours, advisories are being initiated on the system as a potential\ntropical cyclone at this time.\n\nThe initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on aircraft data, with\nthese winds found well south of the broad circulation center.\nHowever, NOAA buoy 42057 also reported a peak 1-minute wind of 31 kt\nearlier today. Aircraft data suggest that the central pressure is\naround 1006 mb. The system is situated in a low-shear environment\nand over warm waters, so some slow strengthening is expected in the\nfirst 24 hours before the system reaches Cuba. The official forecast\nfollows the trend of the intensity consensus in showing a peak of\naround 45 kt at 36 and 48 hours before the system is absorbed by an\napproaching cold front in 60-72 hours.\n\nGiven the lack of a well-defined center, the initial position is and\nthe initial motion of 330/05 are highly uncertain. A faster\nnorthward motion should begin soon as the disturbance begins to\nrecurve ahead of an approaching mid/upper-level trough moving into\nthe southeastern United States. This trough should cause a faster\nnortheastward acceleration at 24 through 48 hours. The track model\nguidance is in generally good agreement on the overall scenario,\nwith more along than cross track spread. The NHC forecast leans\ntoward a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models and is a little slower\nthan the current multi-model consensus. Not surprisingly, given the\ndisorganized initial state of the system, the track forecast\nuncertainty is larger than usual.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 17.5N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  28/0600Z 19.1N  84.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  28/1800Z 21.7N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 24.6N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 28.0N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Selma","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP202017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Selma Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017\n400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017\n\nThe center of Selma became exposed shortly after the issuance of the\nprevious advisory, however, deep convection has redeveloped near and\njust south of the center this afternoon.  The system is feeling the\naffects of moderate northeasterly shear and does not appear to have\nstrengthened.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB\nare 2.0 (30 kt), however, the initial intensity is maintained at\n35 kt in agreement with the overnight ASCAT data.  Unfortunately,\nthe ASCAT satellites did not pass over the tropical cyclone today.\n\nSatellite and microwave fixes show that Selma has turned more\npoleward and is now moving north-northwestward or 345/6 kt.  A\nlarge mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the Gulf of\nMexico tonight and Saturday which should cause Selma to turn\nnorthward later today or tonight.  The 12Z track guidance has come\ninto better agreement and brings Selma onshore in El Salvador\nor eastern Guatemala on Saturday, and little change was made to the\nprevious NHC forecast track.\n\nModerate to strong northeasterly shear is expected to remain over\nthe tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, and little overall\nchange in strength is expected before landfall.  Selma should\nrapidly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Central America\nSaturday night or Sunday.\n\nIt should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma\nis heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches\nover portions of El Salvador and Guatemala.  This rainfall could\ncause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 11.7N  89.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 12.5N  89.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 13.6N  89.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/0600Z 14.8N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n1100 PM EDT Fri Oct 27 2017\n\nSatellite imagery shows that the disturbance over the northwestern\nCaribbean Sea is gradually becoming better organized with increasing\nconvective banding in the western semicircle. However, experimental\nshortwave infrared data from GOES-16 appear to show the presence of\nmultiple low cloud swirls, and it is unclear if the definition of\nthe center has improved to the point where the system has become a\ntropical cyclone.  Thus, the disturbance remains a potential\ntropical cyclone at this time.  There are no recent observations of\nthe winds near the center, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt\nbased on continuity from the previous advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is an uncertain 005/6.  A deep-layer trough and\ndeveloping frontal low over the northeastern United States are\nexpected to cause the disturbance to turn northeastward and\naccelerate during the next 24 h, with a fast motion toward the\nnortheast continuing until the disturbance is absorbed by the\nmid-latitude system.  The track guidance is generally in good\nagreement with this scenario, although there remains some\ncross-track spread due mainly to the uncertain center position.\nThe new forecast track is similar to the previous track and is in\nbest agreement with the HFIP Corrected Consensus model.\n\nEnvironmental conditions appear at least somewhat favorable for\nintensification during the next 48 h, with light to moderate shear\nand strong upper-level divergence over the system.  After that\ntime, the system is expected to be absorbed into the aforementioned\nmid-latitude system and become a trough rotating around the larger\ncirculation.  The new intensity forecast is nudged upward slightly\nfrom the previous forecast and now shows a peak intensity of 50 kt\nbefore absorption. However, the forecast lies at the lower edge of\nthe intensity guidance, and if the system can develop a better-\ndefined inner core it could strengthen more than currently forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 18.2N  84.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  28/1200Z 20.1N  83.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 22.9N  81.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/1200Z 26.2N  77.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  30/0000Z 30.8N  73.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  31/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Selma","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP202017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Selma Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017\n1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017\n\nSelma has not become any better organized during the past several\nhours.  The center of the tropical storm is partially exposed\nbetween a small curved band to its southeast and weakening\nconvection to the west.  Recent microwave data confirmed that Selma\nis a compact system, and the associated tropical-storm-force winds\nare estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. The\ninitial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with the latest\nDvorak classification from TAFB.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Selma has moved northward to\nnorth-northeastward during the past 6 to 12 hours, and the storm\nlies a little to the east of the previous NHC track prediction.  A\ngeneral northward motion is expected overnight, and that should\nbring the center of Selma near the coast of El Salvador by Saturday\nmorning.  The new NHC track forecast has shifted to the east based\non the initial position and motion, and it lies close to the\nconsensus models.\n\nLittle change in strength is likely while Selma approaches the\ncoast.  Once the storm moves inland, rapid weakening is expected\nand the system will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain of\nCentral America by Saturday night.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with\naccumulations possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El\nSalvador and Guatemala.  This rainfall could cause life-threatening\nflash floods and mudslides.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 12.3N  89.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 13.4N  89.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 24H  29/0000Z 14.3N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n500 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017\n\nScatterometer data from several hours ago indicated that the\ndisturbance consists of a broad circulation with a 100-150 n mi wide\narea of light winds (less than 10 kt) and an equally as large radius\nof maximum winds.  The system still does not appear to have a\nwell-defined center of circulation, and in fact, the ASCAT data also\nshowed that the maximum winds are down to about 30 kt.  The\nassociated deep convection is rather disorganized but has been\nincreasing in coverage near the estimated center during the past\nfew hours.\n\nWhile the exact center is difficult to locate, the disturbance's\ncirculation appears to be moving just east of due north, or 010/9\nkt.  The disturbance is beginning to accelerate in the flow ahead\nof a deep-layer trough located over the eastern three-quarters of\nthe United States, and this pattern is expected to cause the system\nto turn northeastward and accelerate further during the next couple\nof days.  Although the track models are in agreement on this general\nscenario, the overall guidance envelope has shifted a little\nwestward, most likely as a result of a repositioning of the\ndisturbance's current location.  The new NHC forecast has therefore\nbeen nudged westward as well, lying closest to HCCA and TVCA models\nthrough 36 hours.\n\nThe disturbance is currently located in its best environment\nshear-wise, but the system's broad and elongated structure is\nlikely delaying intensification.  Although the shear will be\nincreasing, it should remain low enough for the next 12-18 hours to\nsupport some strengthening if the circulation can tighten up.  In\naddition, upper-level divergence is expected to increase, which\nshould also support some strengthening.  Since the disturbance has\nsuch a broad circulation, the NHC intensity forecast closely\nfollows the intensity trends of the GFS and is not too different\nfrom the previous advisory.  The system is now expected to merge\nwith a cold front and be extratropical by 48 hours and then\ndissipate by 72 hours.\n\nEven though the track forecast has shifted a little closer to South\nFlorida and the Florida Keys, the strongest winds are expected to\nbe well to the east and southeast of the center over the Atlantic\nwaters and the Bahamas.  Therefore, tropical storm watches or\nwarnings do not appear necessary for Florida at this time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 19.6N  84.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  28/1800Z 21.7N  82.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  29/0600Z 24.9N  80.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 28.7N  76.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 34.2N  71.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Selma","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP202017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Selma Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017\n400 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017\n\nThe satellite appearance of Selma remains about the same as before\nwith a small area of deep convection near and west of the center.\nThe initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, perhaps generously,\nalthough there hasn't been any ASCAT data in over 24 hours now.\nLittle change in strength is forecast before landfall in El Salvador\nduring the next few hours, and the cyclone should dissipate over the\nrugged terrain of Central America by this evening.  Model guidance\nis in good agreement on this scenario, and no significant\nchanges were made to the previous track or intensity forecasts.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall with 2\nto 5 inches possible over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 13.0N  88.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 13.8N  88.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-10-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eighteen Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n1100 AM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017\n\nData from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate\nthat the low pressure system located over the northwestern\nCaribbean Sea has developed a well-defined low-level circulation\ncenter. Satellite imagery also shows more central deep convection\nhas developed and persisted in the inner-core region since\nyesterday.  Based on these data, the disturbance has been upgraded\nto Tropical Depression Eighteen.\n\nWith the recent redevelopment of the inner-core region this morning,\nthe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 020/19 kt. The global\nmodels remain in excellent agreement on an approaching frontal\nsystem and deep mid-tropospheric trough accelerating the cyclone\nnorth-northeastward across west-central Cuba today, followed by a\nmotion toward the northeast tonight and Sunday, with the system\npassing about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern United\nStates in 36-48 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially\njust an update of the previous advisory due to the good agreement in\nthe global and consensus models, which lie along or just a tad to\nthe west of the official forecast track.\n\nThe vertical wind shear affecting the cyclone is expected to remain\nsomewhat favorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours\nor so, with the depression expected to become a tropical storm by\ntonight.  Thereafter, baroclinic processes associated with the\naforementioned frontal system are forecast to induce some additional\nstrengthening before the cyclone merges with the frontal system\nand becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours. Dissipation is\nexpected by 72 hours when the system is located over the far North\nAtlantic.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the forecast track of the center lies about 35 miles\nsoutheast of the Upper Florida Keys and extreme southeast Florida\nand most of the winds are expected to remain east of the center,\nonly a slight deviation to the west of the expected track or an\nincrease in the size of the wind field could bring tropical-storm-\nforce winds across these land areas. For that reason, a tropical\nstorm watch has been issued for these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 20.8N  82.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 23.0N  81.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 26.6N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 31.5N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 37.5N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Selma","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-10-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP202017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Selma Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017\n1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017\n\nThe surface circulation center of Selma continues to move inland\nover San Salvador since making landfall just a couple of hours\nago.  Conventional imagery, radar data, and surface observations\nindicate that Selma has weakened during the past few hours and the\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory.\nFurther weakening is forecast today, and Selma should quickly\ndissipate over the Sierra Madre Mountains tonight.  Selma should\nturn northeastward soon and continue on this general motion until\ndissipation tonight, and the global models remain in agreement in\nthis forecast philosophy.\n\nThe primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall with 2\nto 5 inches that could cause flash floods in higher terrain over\nportions of El Salvador and Guatemala.  Gusty winds to\ntropical-storm-force are also possible today.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 13.7N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  29/0000Z 14.4N  87.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 24H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-10-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n500 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017\n\nSatellite images, radar data from Cuba and Key West, and surface\nobservations indicate the depression has turned northward over the\npast few hours, and has also strengthened into a tropical storm.\nThe initial intensity of 35 kt is based on a surface observation of\n35 kt in a brief squall from Grand Cayman at 1444Z, a recent AMSU\nestimate of 37 kt, and average Key West Doppler radar velocities of\n40 kt between 10,000-12,000 ft just north of the Cuban coast; the\nlatter data equates to an approximate surface wind speed of 36 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is now 355/25 kt based on radar data and\nhigh-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery over the past 2-3\nhours. The low-level wind flow pattern for the next 6 hours or so is\nforecast to be complex, with a new non-tropical surface low having\nrecently formed about 100 nmi west of Key West, Florida. This\nfeature appears to have developed beneath an upper-level jet\nentrance region ahead of an approaching cold front.  The global,\nregional, and even the convective-scale models are now showing the\ncenter of Philippe moving general northward across the Straits of\nFlorida this evening and merging with the non-tropical low around\n0000Z. After the merger over Florida Bay, the various models are in\ngood agreement on Philippe moving northeastward to\neast-northeastward across extreme southern Florida or the Florida\nKeys overnight as the cyclone is accelerated ahead of the\naforementioned frontal system and strong mid-/upper-level trough.\nAfter reaching the northwestern Bahamas by 1200Z Sunday morning,\nPhilippe is forecast to accelerate further towards the northeast at\nforward speeds of 30-35 kt, by Sunday afternoon and evening,\nremaining well offshore of the Carolinas. By 36 hours, Philippe is\nexpected to pass about midway between Bermuda and the southeastern\nUnited States, and gradually getting pulled north-northeastward up\nthe east side of a powerful baroclinic low that is forecast to\ndevelop near Cape Hatteras and move northward near the U.S. east\ncoast. The NHC track guidance is in reasonable agreement on this\ndeveloping track scenario, and lies between the GFS model, which\ntakes Philippe across the Florida Keys, and the ECMWF model, which\nmoves the cyclone farther north over South Florida.\n\nThe vertical wind shear affecting Philippe is expected to remain\nfavorable for strengthening to occur for the next 24 hours, along\nwith an additional baroclinic boost from the aforementioned\nupper-level jet maximum. By 36 hours, strong baroclinic forcing\nassociated with the approaching frontal system are forecast to\ninduce additional strengthening before the cyclone merges with\nthe frontal system and becomes an extratropical low by 48 hours.\nDissipation or absorption by a larger extratropical low is expected\nby 72 hours when the system is located over the cold waters of the\nNorth Atlantic.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across\nthe Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest\nwinds are expected to remain east and southeast of the center.\nHowever, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur\nin brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast\nFlorida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains\nin effect for these areas.\n\n2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat\nfrom this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized\nflooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South\nFlorida.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 23.0N  82.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 26.0N  80.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 31.5N  75.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 36.6N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 42.0N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Selma","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-10-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP202017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Selma Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202017\n400 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017\n\nVisible satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observations\nindicate that Selma has degenerated to a poorly-defined remnant low\nnear the border of El Salvador and Honduras, and this will be the\nlast advisory.  Weakening will continue, and the cyclone is expected\nto dissipate over the Sierra Madre Mountains tonight.\n\nAlthough Selma has weakened to remnant low pressure area, heavy\nrainfall of 2 to 5 inches remains the primary threat and could\ncause flash floods, especially in areas of higher terrain of El\nSalvador, Guatemala, and southern Honduras.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 14.3N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  29/0600...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-10-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 28 2017\n\nPhilippe has a very non-classical structure for a tropical cyclone\nthis evening.  A combination of satellite imagery, radar data, and\nsurface observations show that the circulation center is elongated\nnorthwest-southeast from southwest of Naples, Florida, to central\nCuba with at least three vorticity centers present in this area.\nThe estimated center position is a mean of the multiple vorticity\ncenters, with this position near the region of lowest pressure\nsuggested by the surface observations.  Currently, the primary deep\nconvection is located from the northwestern Bahamas southwestward\nacross Cuba into the Caribbean, with a smaller area of convection\nover the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The initial intensity\nremains 35 kt, based mainly on continuity from the previous\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 015/21. A deep-layer\ntrough and developing surface low over the eastern United States\nshould cause Philippe to turn northeastward soon, followed by a\nrapid northeastward motion across the southern end of the Florida\nPeninsula into the Atlantic.  The cyclone should continue to move\naround the large baroclinic system until it is absorbed after the\n48 h point.  The new forecast track is a blend of the previous\nforecast and the current guidance, and it is shifted to the north\nof the previous track based mainly on the current initial position.\n\nIt is unclear how much additional strengthening Philippe can do as\na tropical cyclone, as the shear is increasing over the system and\nwater vapor imagery shows dry air entrainment in the southwestern\nquadrant.  However, the upper-level divergence over the system is\nvery strong, and the large-scale models forecast deepening as the\ncenter crosses southern Florida and the Bahamas.  In addition, the\nincreasing forward speed may increase the maximum winds as well.\nBased on these factors, the intensity forecast calls for some\nincrease in strength during the next 24-36 h.  Philippe is likely\nto merge with a frontal system associated with the eastern U. S.\ntrough in about 36 h, and the mid-latitude cyclone should\ncompletely absorb Philippe after 48 h, if not sooner.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Although the center of Philippe is now forecast to move across\nthe Florida Keys or extreme south Florida, most of the strongest\nwinds are expected to remain well east and southeast of the center.\nHowever, tropical-storm-force winds, mainly in gusts, could occur\nin brief heavy squalls across the upper Florida Keys and southeast\nFlorida overnight. For that reason, a tropical storm watch remains\nin effect for these areas.\n\n2. Regardless of the exact track of Philippe, the primary threat\nfrom this system will be heavy rainfall that can cause localized\nflooding across portions of Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South\nFlorida.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 24.8N  82.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 27.6N  78.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 33.9N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 40.3N  69.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  31/0000Z 48.0N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-10-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n500 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017\n\nPhilippe is a very poorly organized system, and it is a stretch to\ncall it a tropical cyclone at this time.  The most trackable center\npassed near Key West a couple of hours ago and has moved into the\nStraits of Florida.  Given that northwesterly winds are now observed\nover southeastern Florida, however, it is unlikely that this is a\nunique center of circulation.  Therefore, the advisory location\nnear the southern tip of Florida is more of a mean center position.\nGiven that, the initial motion is a highly uncertain 070/15 kt.\nRegardless of its precise location, the overall system should turn\nnortheastward to north-northeastward and accelerate considerably\nahead of a high amplitude 500 mb trough near the United States east\ncoast.\n\nObservations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated\nthat the maximum sustained winds were near 40 kt over the Straits\nof Florida.  Deep convection has been displaced well to the\nnortheast of the estimated center by nearly 50 kt of deep-layer\nshear.  The shear is forecast to increase even more, and Philippe\nis expected to become a post-tropical cyclone within the next 24\nhours as it becomes embedded within a cold front that is approaching\nfrom the northwest.  The above-mentioned trough is likely to induce\nsome baroclinic intensification of the storm today and tonight.  By\nMonday, however, the global models show the cyclone becoming\nabsorbed into a larger and stronger extratropical low near New\nEngland.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 25.0N  81.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 29.2N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 36.0N  72.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-10-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n1100 AM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017\n\nPhilippe looks the best it ever has, possessing a well-defined\nlow-level center as seen in high-resolution GOES-16 visible\nimagery, along with at least 45-kt sustained winds based on several\nrecent ship reports. However, the cyclone is sheared with the bulk\nof the convective cloud shield having been displaced northeast of\nthe center due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds of 45-75 kt.\n\nAlthough the exact center of Philippe was difficult to track\novernight, the current position is actually on the previous forecast\ntrack. Philippe has been moving due east at about 25-27 kt for the\npast few hours. However, the NHC model guidance is in decent\nagreement that the cyclone will turn toward the northeast by this\nafternoon ahead of an approaching frontal system and a powerful\ndeep-layer trough moving quickly eastward across the eastern Gulf of\nMexico and Florida. The cold front is currently located only 90-100\nnmi west of Philippe's center, and merger with the front along with\ntransition to a extratropical low pressure system is expected by 12\nhours, if not sooner. As the aforementioned trough becomes more\nnegatively tilted over the next 24 hours, a strong extratropical low\nis forecast to develop near or just east of the North Carolina Outer\nBanks, pulling Philippe's circulation north-northeastward to\nnorthward in the 12-24-hour period well offshore of the U.S east\ncoast. Absorption of Philippe's circulation into the larger\nextratropical low is expected to be completed by 24 hours when the\nlarger low is located over New England. The official forecast track\nlies to the right of the previous advisory track, mainly due to the\nrecent eastward jog, and lies along the eastern edge of the guidance\nenvelope near a blend of the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.\n\nSome additional slight strengthening is possible during the\nnext 12 hours or so, mainly due weak baroclinic forcing and the\nfaster forward speed that is forecast. However, most of the\nbaroclinic energy associated with the negatively tilted mid-latitude\ntrough is expected to remain to the west, triggering the development\nof the above-mentioned significant extratropical coastal low. In\nfact, some of the latent heat from Philippe's circulation will\nlikely get drawn into the larger extratropical low developing to its\nnorthwest, aiding in that intensification process and increasing the\ndemise of Philippe after 12 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 27.8N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 32.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Philippe","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-10-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Philippe Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL182017\n500 PM EDT Sun Oct 29 2017\n\nDuring the past few hours, strong vertical wind shear in excess of\n50 kt, plus merger with a cold front, has taken its toll on\nPhilippe's previously well-defined low-level circulation. The system\nhas become elongated north-to-south within the frontal zone, and a\nnew low-level center may have developed about 150 nmi farther north\nalong the frontal boundary near NOAA buoy 41002. Now that Philippe\nhas lost any tropical or subtropical characteristics due to merger\nwith a synoptic-scale cold front, the system is declared to have\ndissipated.\n\nMuch of the latent heat and deep convection associated with\nPhilippe's remnants will likely be drawn into a larger extratropical\nlow pressure that is developing near the outer banks of North\nCarolina, aiding in that intensification process. Although the\ndeveloping powerful low near the Outer Banks is not directly\nassociated with Philippe, interests along the mid-Atlantic and\nsouthern New England coasts should closely monitor forecast products\nissued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, NOAA Ocean Prediction\nCenter, and your local National Weather Service forecast office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 31.0N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-11-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n500 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017\n\nGOES-16 night-time visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate\nthat convection associated with the well-defined low pressure\nsystem located over the central Atlantic Ocean has increased and\nbecome better organized during the past several hours. Satellite\nintensity estimates were T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB at\n0600Z.  Since that time, however, a burst of deep convection has\ndeveloped over the previously partially exposed low-level\ncirculation center, which had been located near the northwestern\nedge of the large convective cloud mass. Given that the center is\nnow located farther into the deep convection, NHC objective\nintensity estimates have increased to more than 30 kt. As a result,\nadvisories have been initiated on the nineteenth tropical depression\nof the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 095/05 kt. The center of the cyclone\nhas been moving slowly eastward within the larger cyclonic gyre for\nthe past 12-18 hours, most likely due to the deep convection being\nsheared toward the east.  However, the latest NHC model guidance\nindicates that the recent eastward motion should be short-lived\nsince the larger gyre is forecast to begin moving northward within\nthe next 6 h or so. As the wind field contracts over the next 24\nhours, the motion of the cyclone should stabilize and become less\nerratic as deep-layer southerly steering flow becomes established\non the west side of a large-scale subtropical ridge. By 48 h and\nbeyond, southwesterly flow ahead of mid-latitude trough is forecast\nto accelerate the system toward the northeast through 96 h. By\n120 h, the cyclone should have merged with a frontal system or have\ndissipated over the cold waters of the far north Atlantic. The\nofficial track forecast lies close to a blend of the TVCN, TVCX,\nand GFEX consensus track models.\n\nThe cyclone is currently embedded within a low-shear environment in\nthe col region between a weakening upper-level low located to the\nsoutheast and a trough to the northwest. The vertical wind shear is\nforecast by the GFS and ECMWF models to remain relatively low for\nthe next 36 h or so, which should allow for some modest\nstrengthening to occur despite sea-surface temperatures only being\naround 25-26 deg C. Temperatures of 2-3 deg C colder-than-normal\nin the mid- and upper-levels of the troposphere, however, should\nact to offset the cooler SSTs, providing sufficient instability to\nallow for deep convection to continue to develop. Model soundings\nand the FSU Cyclone Phase-Space diagram indicate that extratropical\ntransition should begin shortly after 48 h when the cyclone reaches\nabout 40N latitude and moves over much cooler water. The NHC\nintensity closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 28.9N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 30.0N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 32.0N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 35.4N  49.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 39.4N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 49.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  10/0600Z 59.0N  15.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-11-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n1100 AM AST Mon Nov 06 2017\n\nThe depression has a sheared appearance with the low-level center\nexposed to the west of the mid-level center and the convective\nbands.  A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that maximum winds\nare near 30 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB.  Based on these data, the initial wind\nspeed is held at 30 kt.\n\nThe depression has slowed down and turned to the left, with the\ninitial motion estimated to be 015/3 kt.  A faster north to\nnorth-northeast motion is expected during the next couple of days\nwhile the system moves in the flow on the west side of a mid-level\nridge.  Thereafter, an even faster motion toward the northeast is\nforecast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude\nwesterlies.  The model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC\ntrack forecast is nudged to the west of the previous one to come\ninto agreement with the latest consensus models.\n\nAlthough the environment ahead of the depression is not expected to\nbe particularly conducive for strengthening as a tropical system,\nbaroclinic enhancements and the expected faster forward speed\nshould cause the cyclone to gain some strength during the next\ncouple of days.  The global models agree that the cyclone should\nmerge with a cold front by Wednesday evening, causing extratropical\ntransition.  The extratropical cyclone is expected to gradually\nweaken and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.  The guidance has trended a\nlittle higher this cycle, and the NHC intensity forecast follows\nthat trend and lies near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 29.5N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 30.8N  50.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 33.6N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 37.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 41.4N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 51.0N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  10/1200Z 57.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-11-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nineteen Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n500 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017\n\nThe depression has changed little in structure during the past\nseveral hours.  The low-level center remains exposed to the west of\nthe main area of deep convection due to the influence of westerly\nshear and dry air.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on\nthe earlier ASCAT data and a Dvorak classification of 2.0/30 kt from\nTAFB.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that the system has been moving slowly and\nerratically during the past 6 to 12 hours.  Smoothing through the\nwobbles yields an initial motion of 020/5 kt.  The combined\ninfluences of a mid-level ridge to the east of the depression and a\nshortwave trough to its west should cause the system to move\nprogressively faster toward the north or north-northeast during the\nnext couple of days.  Beyond that time, an even faster northeastward\nmotion is expected when the system becomes embedded in the mid-\nlatitude westerlies.  The latest track guidance is notably slower\nthan the previous cycles, and the new NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted in that direction.\n\nThe cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of moderate\nwesterly shear while it moves toward cooler waters.  Although these\nconditions typically would not favor strengthening, the models do\nshow the depression deepening during the next couple of days, likely\ndue to some baroclinic forcing and the expected increase in forward\nspeed of the system.  The cyclone will likely complete extratropical\ntransition Wednesday night or early Thursday when it merges with a\ncold front.  Overall the intensity guidance has changed little this\ncycle, and no change was made to the previous NHC intensity\nprediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 29.9N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 31.4N  49.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 34.2N  49.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 37.6N  48.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 41.1N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 48.8N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  10/1800Z 56.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-11-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n1100 PM AST Mon Nov 06 2017\n\nDespite the low-level center being exposed to the west of the deep\nconvection, a pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 00Z and\n01Z showed an area of 30-35 kt winds east of the cyclone's center.\nBased on the ASCAT data, the depression is upgraded to a tropical\nstorm with the initial intensity set at 35 kt. The rather\ndisorganized cloud pattern is consistent with the approximately 20\nkt of westerly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The\nenvironment is only expected to be marginally conducive for\nintensification via diabatic processes, with the shear expected to\nremain near 20 kt and the SSTs cooling along the forecast track.\nAfter 24 to 36 hours, cooling upper-tropospheric temperatures and\nincreasing upper-level divergence suggest that Rina will maintain\nits intensity as it begins extratropical transition, which should be\ncomplete between by 72 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous one and is close to the HWRF and HCCA aids.\nThe official forecast shows Rina dissipating by 96 hours in\nagreement with global model fields.\n\nThe exposed low-level center and ASCAT passes result in high\nconfidence in the initial position, and Rina has begun to move\nmore steadily, with an initial motion estimate of 010/06. Rina\nshould continue to accelerate northward and north-northeastward\nduring the next 36 to 48 hours between a mid-level ridge to the east\nand an upper-level trough to the west. After 48 hours, Rina is\nforecast to accelerate further as it enters the mid-latitude\nwesterlies. The track model guidance has shifted left this cycle,\nand the along-track spread is quite large by 72 hours, with the GFS\nmore than 500 n mi northeast of the ECMWF at that time. The new NHC\ntrack forecast has been adjusted westward and a bit slower, and lies\nclose to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions to the east of the\nTVCA multi-model consensus. Confidence in the details of the track\nforecast is lower than usual given the large model spread.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 30.4N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 32.4N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 35.4N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 39.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 42.3N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 51.0N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-11-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n500 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017\n\nRina's overall convective cloud pattern has increased is areal\ncoverage in the eastern semicircle, along with a little more deep\nconvection having developed near the well-defined low-level center.\nIn addition, drifting buoy 41506, located about 40 nmi northwest of\nthe center, reported a pressure of 1011.5 mb at 0600 UTC, and that\ndatum was used to estimate the central pressure of 1009 mb.\nSatellite classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT remain at T2.5,\nso the intensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory, which\ncould be conservative given the lower central pressure.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 005/10 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. As Rina moves\naround the western periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, the\ncyclone should continue to accelerate toward the north today and\nthen toward the north-northeast on Wednesday. By 48 hours, Rina is\nexpected to get caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies and\naccelerate even more toward the northeast over the cold waters\nof the north Atlantic. The NHC track guidance has shifted a little\nmore to left, so the new official forecast track has also been\nnudged in that direction, close to consensus models TVCN and HCCA.\n\nBased on GOES-16 ice physics satellite imagery, the inner-core of\nRina's circulation appears to have tightened up some and has also\nbecome better defined. Some modest strengthening is forecast for\nthe next 36 h or so due to some baroclinic forcing associated with\nan approaching vigorous shortwave trough currently located about 400\nnmi to the west. By 48 h, the cyclone will be situated over water\ntemperatures colder than 20 deg C and within an environment of\nincreasing deep-layer wind shear. The combination of those two\nnegative factors are expected is result in Rina becoming an\nextratropical cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\nHCCA intensity consensus model, and also includes input from the\nNOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 31.4N  49.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 33.7N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 37.0N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 40.4N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 44.4N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  10/0600Z 53.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-11-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n1100 AM AST Tue Nov 07 2017\n\nThunderstorms continue to increase near and on the northeastern\nside of Rina.  However, the center remains partially exposed due to\nsouthwesterly shear.  Although the overall convective pattern is\nmore organized than a few hours ago, satellite estimates continue\nto support a conservative initial wind speed of 35 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe environment around Rina is expected to be only slightly\nsupportive of intensification for the next day or so with moderate\nshear and cool upper-level temperatures offsetting marginal SSTs.\nIn about 48 hours, Rina should interact with a frontal boundary and\nbecome post-tropical.  Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on\nthis scenario and little change was made to the previous intensity\nforecast, which is near or slightly above the consensus.\n\nRina is moving northward at about 13 kt. The storm is forecast to\naccelerate today and turn northeastward tomorrow as it becomes more\nembedded within the mid-latitude flow.  Rina should move rather\nrapidly to the northeast later this week over the far northern\nAtlantic ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes. Only\nsmall changes were made to the track forecast, and the new NHC\nprediction is slightly faster than the last one at long range.  The\nstorm should dissipate by day 4 well west of Ireland.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 32.4N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 34.7N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 37.8N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 41.0N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 45.5N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  10/1200Z 56.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-11-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n500 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017\n\nSatellite images show that Rina has a sheared appearance with an\nasymmetric area of convection near and northeast of the center\nalong with a large cloud shield in the northern semicircle.  An\nearlier ASCAT pass had 35 kt winds well east of the center and,\ngiven that the pass likely missed the strongest winds, the wind\nspeed is set to 40 kt on this advisory.\n\nRina is moving in a moderate shear, marginally unstable environment\ncharacterized by cool upper-level temperatures counteracting cool\nSSTs. These conditions along the path of the cyclone don't change\nmuch during the next 24-36 hours, so a continuation of the slow\nincrease in wind speed is forecast. After that time, Rina is\nforecast to move over much colder water into higher shear, which\nshould cause weakening, and will eventually turn Rina into an\nextratropical cyclone in about 2 days. Most of the models show only\nslight strengthening over the next day or so, and the official\nforecast follows suit, close to the SHIPS model for a peak\nintensity.\n\nRina is moving northward, now at 16 kt.  The storm should turn to\nthe north-northeast around a high over the eastern Atlantic late\ntomorrow. Rina should move quite rapidly to the northeast on\nThursday as it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The\nglobal models, other than some forward speed differences, remain in\ngood agreement, and the latest forecast is basically an update of\nthe previous one, near the corrected-consensus models. Most of the\nguidance stretch the system out over the North Atlantic, causing the\nlow to dissipate by 72 hours west of Ireland.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 33.8N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 36.2N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 39.4N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 43.0N  46.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 48.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-11-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017\n\nRina's satellite presentation has acquired some sub-tropical\ncharacteristics this evening as it interacts with a mid- to\nupper-level trough to its west and southwest.  The center remains\nexposed to the south of the primary mass of convection, but the\nconvection has loosely wrapped around the northwestern portion of\nthe circulation which has lead to an increase in overall banding.\nRecent ASCAT data shows that there has been an overall increase in\nthe size of the wind field and that the maximum winds have increased\nto around 45 kt.  Rina is forecast to remain within an environment\nof moderate shear and marginal instability during the next 24 hours,\nhowever some additional strengthening is possible tonight and\nWednesday due to interaction with the aforementioned upper-level\ntrough.  By early Thursday, Rina will be moving over much colder\nwaters and is forecast to become post-tropical.  The cyclone should\nbecome a fully extratropical low by late Thursday.\n\nRina continues to move northward or 010/16 kt. The track forecast\nreasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.  The cyclone\nshould turn north-northeastward around a large high pressure system\nover the eastern Atlantic by late Wednesday, and then begin to\naccelerate northeastward on Thursday when it becomes embedded within\nstrong mid-latitude flow.  The track guidance remains in fairly good\nagreement and the NHC forecast is again near the various consensus\naids to account for some differences in forward speed among the\nglobal models.  The cyclone is expected to dissipate along a frontal\nzone over the far north Atlantic in about 72 hours or less.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 35.4N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 37.8N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 41.2N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 45.7N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  10/0000Z 51.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-11-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n500 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017\n\nSatellite imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that Rina has\ntaken on a tight comma-cloud appearance, more indicative of a\nsub-tropical cyclone than a tropical system. Although an eye-like\nfeature has recently developed, it appears to be tilted about 20-30\nnmi to the north of the low-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity\nestimates were ST3.0/45-50 kt from TAFB and T3.5 from SAB. Data\nfrom a late-arriving, partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass at 0029Z\nindicated 46-kt surface winds well east of the center, and the cloud\npattern has improved since that time. Based these data, the\nintensity of Rina has been increased to 50 kt.\n\nRina is moving northward or 010/17 kt. Rina is located just north\nof the axis of a deep-layer ridge, which is located to the east of\nthe cyclone. As a result, a northward to north-northeastward motion\nis expected for the next 12-24 h. Thereafter, a shortwave trough\nsituated to the southwest of Rina should induce acceleration toward\nthe northeast on Thursday, followed by a more rapid motion of 30-35\nkt by Thursday night and Friday as westerly flow on the east side of\na deep-layer trough captures the system. The latest NHC model\nguidance has shifted to the west some, but the official forecast\ntrack has only been nudged slightly in that direction due to a\ndistinct westward bias noted in the model guidance during the past\n48 hours.\n\nAlthough some sight strengthening could occur during the next 6-12\nhours, the overall intensity trend is forecast to change little\nduring the period due to the combination of cold SSTs of less than\n20 deg C by 18 h and increasing vertical wind shear of more than 35\nkt by 36 hours. By 24 h, Rina should become a post-tropical cyclone\nover the cold waters of the far north Atlantic and become\nextratropical and merge with a front by 48-72 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 37.1N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 39.7N  47.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 43.6N  45.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  09/1800Z 48.7N  40.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  10/0600Z 53.3N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-11-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n1100 AM AST Wed Nov 08 2017\n\nRina continues to have some subtropical characteristics with\nsatellite images showing an asymmetric, comma-cloud structure.\nStill, AMSU and model analyses are showing the system as moderately\nwarm core, and there are no signs of fronts near the core.  Thus,\nRina will stay as a tropical cyclone, and 50 kt is kept as the\ninitial wind speed based on the latest satellite estimates.  Little\nchange in strength is expected before Rina loses all deep convection\nwithin the next 24 hours over chilly waters.  The system should\nbecome embedded within a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in\na day or two, and dissipate west of Ireland. No changes were made to\nthe previous intensity forecast.\n\nThe storm is moving northward a bit faster at 18 kt.  A continued\nacceleration and a turn to the north-northeast is expected overnight\nas Rina moves ahead of a shortwave over the Canadian Maritimes.  The\ncyclone should move quite rapidly to the northeast by late Thursday\nand east-northeast on Friday due to strong mid-latitude flow.  The\nwestward guidance trend in the short-term part of the forecast\nis still present, and the new NHC prediction is moved in that\ndirection in the first 24 hours, with little change thereafter.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 39.4N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 42.2N  47.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 47.1N  44.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  10/0000Z 52.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  10/1200Z 55.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-11-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n500 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017\n\nThe only significant change to Rina in the past several hours is the\nredevelopment of a small area of deep convection near the center.\nOtherwise, the large cyclone continues to have a somewhat\nsubtropical appearance in satellite imagery, although available\nmicrowave data still indicate Rina is best classified as tropical.\nThe initial wind speed is set to 45 kt based on ASCAT data from\nearlier today. Rina should lose all deep convection overnight as it\nmoves over very cold waters and is forecast to become a frontal\ncyclone within 24 hours. Little change in strength is forecast\nthroughout the period, consistent with the global model guidance.\nThe extratropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate near or west of\nIreland by day 3, although some of the guidance isn't clear on\nexactly when that will occur.\n\nRina continues to accelerate northward, now at about 20 kt. The\nstorm has been interacting with an upper-level low, as seen on water\nvapor images, which has kept the cyclone a bit west of the previous\nforecast. However, Rina is forecast to turn north-northeastward\novernight and accelerate northeastward by Thursday night due to the\ncyclone leaving the influence of the upper low and entering stronger\nmid-latitude flow. The models are again west of the previous\nforecast in the short term, so the new NHC forecast is adjusted to\nthe west, similar to a blend of the latest consensus and corrected\nconsensus guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 40.9N  48.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 44.0N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  09/1800Z 49.5N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  10/0600Z 53.5N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  10/1800Z 55.5N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-11-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n1100 PM AST Wed Nov 08 2017\n\nA small area of deep convection persists near the center of Rina,\nlikely supported by very cold temperatures aloft and increasing\nupper-level divergence overcoming SSTs less than 20C. The initial\nintensity remains 45 kt based largely on continuity from the ASCAT\npass earlier today, as the latest ASCAT passes missed much of Rina's\ncirculation. Given the maintenance of deep convection, Rina remains\na tropical cyclone, but should not be one for long as vertical\nshear is expected to increase above 30 kt and SSTs cool below 15C\nalong the forecast track in the next 12 hours. The cyclone should\nbecome post-tropical by 12 hours and merge with a frontal zone by 24\nhours. Post-tropical Rina should open up into a trough in 36 to 48\nhours in the fast westerly flow over the north Atlantic. No change\nin strength is forecast prior to dissipation, based on global model\nguidance.\n\nSatellite fixes indicate that Rina moved a little to the west of the\nprevious forecast track in the past few hours, but the cyclone now\nappears to be moving north-northeastward or 020/20. The cyclone is\nforecast to accelerate northeastward over the next 24 hours as it\nbecomes embedded in the mid-latitude flow, and an even faster east-\nnortheastward motion is expected on Friday prior to dissipation. The\nnew NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left and is closer\nto the ECMWF model in the short range, since that model has best\nhandled the recent motion of Rina. At 24 to 36 hours, the NHC\nforecast lies to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids.\n\nThe track, intensity and structure forecasts of Rina during its\npost-tropical phase have been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean\nPrediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 42.5N  48.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 45.7N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  10/0000Z 51.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  10/1200Z 55.0N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-11-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Rina Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017\n\nIt is difficult to depict the presence of a tropical cyclone on\nsatellite imagery. The previous convection near the possible center\nhas become completely detached while the circulation is becoming\nelongated. In fact, my initial position and intensity are primarily\nbased on continuity. Rina is over very cold waters and a frontal\nsystem is rapidly approaching the cyclone, so the NHC forecast calls\nfor Rina to become extratropical during the next 12 hours. Visible\nimages later this morning will probably help to determine the\nstructure of Rina if a cyclone exists by then.\n\nRina or the extratropical low should move fast toward the northeast\nand then to the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerly\nflow. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was use in the\nNHC forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 44.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 49.0N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  10/0600Z 54.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  10/1800Z 55.0N  15.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Rina","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-11-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL192017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Rina Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192017\n1100 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017\n\nSatellite images and surface data indicate that Rina has become a\npost-tropical cyclone.  The system is embedded within low stratus\nclouds, with nippy air temperatures around 45 deg F about a degree\nto the northwest of the center.  Interestingly, despite being over\nwater temperatures around 9 deg C, instability aloft is still\nproducing some elevated deep convection well northeast of the\ncenter, though this is not indicative of tropical cyclone status.\nThe initial wind speed will stay at 40 kt, which is the maximum wind\nvalue from a pair of recently received scatterometer passes.  The\ncyclone should move rather rapidly to the northeast and\neast-northeast over the next day before becoming elongated and\ndissipating west of Ireland.  Little change in strength is\nanticipated, consistent with the global models.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Rina.  Additional information on this\nsystem can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National\nWeather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01\nKWBC, and available on the Web at\nhttp://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml\n\nHopefully Rina will be the finale of the extremely active 2017\nAtlantic hurricane season. However that might be wishful thinking\nsince, of the top 10 most active hurricane seasons before this year,\nseven of them still had another tropical storm after today's date.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 47.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  10/0000Z 51.0N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  10/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 PM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017\n\nFernanda continues to strengthen. Although there has been no hint\nof an eye in geostationary satellite imagery, the center is\nembedded within a symmetric CDO and a recent SSMIS overpass\nrevealed a small banded eye.  The upper-level outflow is well\nestablished over the eastern and southern semicircles but there is\nsome evidence of a little northerly shear beneath the high cirrus\nlayer that may have temporarily slowed the intensification process.\nSubjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers range from T4.0 to\nT4.6, which yields an initial intensity estimate of 75 kt.\n\nThe upper-level pattern over the cyclone is forecast to become\nideal for strengthening with the shear remaining quite low\nthroughout the forecast period.  As a result, significant\nstrengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over SSTs of\n28-29 deg C during the next couple of days.  The SHIPS Rapid\nIntensification Index is still indicating a notable chance of RI\nover the next 24 hours, and the NHC foreast once again calls for\nrapid strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,\neyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in\nintensity. In about 72 hours, the hurricane is expected to begin\nmoving over cooler water which should result in weakening late in\nthe period.\n\nRecent satellite fixes show that Fernanda is moving slightly south\nof west or 260/10 kt.  A deep-layer ridge to the north of the\ncyclone is expected to keep the hurricane on a general westward\nheading during the next day or so.  After that time, a mid- to\nupper-level trough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is\nexpected to cause the western portion of the ridge to weaken.\nThis should cause Fernanda to turn west-northwestward over the\nweekend. The track guidance is in very good agreement, and the\nnew NHC track is essentially an update of the previous advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 11.0N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 10.9N 118.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 10.8N 120.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 11.1N 122.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 11.7N 124.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 13.0N 129.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 14.4N 133.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  19/0000Z 15.8N 137.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017\n\nA ragged eye has become intermittently discernible on conventional\ninfrared imagery, and this feature is surrounded by very cold\nconvective tops. The outflow continues to be well established in\nthe southern and eastern semicircle only. T-numbers have\ncontinued to gradually increase to T4.5 and T5.0 on the Dvorak\nscale, and the blend of these numbers support an initial intensity\nof 85 kt.\n\nFernanda is moving across the deep tropics toward an environment of\nlow shear and warm ocean, and these conditions are very favorable\nfor additional intensification during the next 2 to 3 days. Given\nsuch favorable environment, the NHC forecast calls for additional\nstrengthening, and the forecast is a little more aggressive than\nindicated in the consensus. It is worth noting that the latest SHIPS\nRapid Intensification Index (RI) is not as high as earlier.  Beyond\n3 days, Fernanda will likely encounters cooler waters, and a gradual\nweakening is expected to begin.\n\nFernanda is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10kt. The\nhurricane is trapped south of a strong and persistent subtropical\nridge, and this pattern should continue to steer the cyclone\nwestward during the next 2 to 3 days. By then, Fernanda could begin\nto move west-northwestward toward a weakening of the subtropical\nridge. The NHC track forecast is quite similar to the previous one,\nand is basically on top of the multi-model consensus. Track guidance\ncontinues to be tightly clustered, and this increases the confidence\nin the forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 11.0N 117.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 10.8N 119.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 11.0N 121.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 11.4N 123.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 12.0N 125.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 13.5N 130.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  18/0600Z 14.5N 134.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  19/0600Z 16.0N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017\n \nThe satellite presentation of Fernanda continues to improve.  An\neye has been apparent in shortwave and longwave IR imagery for the\npast several hours.  An AMSR-2 overpass around 0843 UTC showed a\nwell defined eye structure, completely surrounded by deep\nconvection.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers at 1200 UTC increased to\n5.0 from TAFB and 5.5 from SAB, and since that time the cloud top\nstructure has improved a little more.  On that basis, the initial\nintensity has been increased to 100 kt, making Fernanda the second\nmajor hurricane of the 2017 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.\n \nFernanda remains in a very favorable environment for\nintensification.  The cyclone's intensity has increased by 40 kt in\nthe past 24 hours and there are no current indications that the\nperiod of rapid intensification has ended.  In fact, according to\nthe SHIPS diagnostics, the hurricane is now approaching an area of\nhigher ocean heat content.  Surprisingly, most of the guidance shows\nrelatively little increase in intensity during the next 48 hours.\nConsidering that most of the guidance has thus far shown not nearly\nthe extent of intensification that has been observed, the NHC\nforecast remains well above the guidance.  The NHC forecast has\nbeen adjusted substantially higher for the first 36 hours to\naccount for the higher initial intensity, but is closer to the\nprevious forecast after that.  Beyond 48 hours, lower SSTs along the\nforecast track and a drier environment should lead to a gradual\nweakening.\n \nThe hurricane is continuing its steady westward track and the\ninitial motion estimate is 265/10 kt.  There is no change to the\ntrack forecast reasoning, and confidence in the track forecast\nremains high due to a tight clustering of the model tracks.\nFernanda is still expected to move generally westward for the next\nday or so, before turning toward the west-northwest due to a\nweakening of the ridge to the north.  No significant changes were\nmade to the NHC track forecast, which remains very close to the\nvarious multi-model consensus aids.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  14/1500Z 10.9N 118.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 10.9N 120.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 11.3N 122.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 11.8N 124.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 12.5N 127.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 13.8N 131.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z 15.0N 135.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  19/1200Z 16.3N 138.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n \n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017\n\nFernanda's satellite presentation has become even more impressive\nthan earlier today, with the eye becoming more distinct on\ngeostationary and microwave imagery.  The upper-level outflow is\nwell-defined over all quadrants, with a fairly symmetric CDO.\nThere are also banding features over the eastern semicircle of the\ncirculation.  Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are near\n6.0 corresponding to an intensity of 115 kt, and that value will be\nused for the advisory intensity.  It may be of interest that it is\nquite unusual to have a hurricane this strong so far south in the\neastern North Pacific basin.\n\nFernanda will remain in a low-shear environment for the next few\ndays, with high oceanic heat content. Based on the trends over the\npast 24 hours, the official intensity forecast is above most of the\nnumerical guidance.  One complication to the forecast is the\npossibility of an eyewall replacement cycle, which is not accounted\nfor here.  Late in the forecast period somewhat cooler waters and,\nby day 5, some increase in shear should cause weakening.\n\nThe initial motion remains near 265/10 kt.  There has not been\nmuch change in the track forecast reasoning from the previous\ncouple of advisories.  A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north\nof Fernanda should induce a westward to west-northwestward track for\nthe next several days.  Some decrease in forward speed is likely\nlater in the period when the tropical cyclone nears a weakness\nor col region of the ridge.  The official track forecast is a blend\nof the simple and corrected dynamical consensus predictions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 10.7N 119.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 10.9N 121.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 11.3N 123.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 11.9N 126.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 12.5N 128.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 13.9N 132.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z 15.4N 136.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  19/1800Z 16.5N 139.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 PM PDT Fri Jul 14 2017\n\nFernanda continues to have a very impressive appearance in\nsatellite imagery, with a 10 n mi wide eye well embedded in a\nsymmetric central dense overcast.  The hurricane also has good\noutflow in all directions and outer convective bands in all\nquadrants except the northwest.  Subjective satellite intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are now 127 kt, and recent estimates\nfrom the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique are now 120 kt.  Based\nmainly on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 125 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 270/10.  The track forecast philosophy\nremains the same as earlier, as a mid-level subtropical ridge to\nthe north of Fernanda should induce a generally west-northwestward\ntrack for the next several days.  Some decrease in forward speed is\nlikely late in the forecast period when the tropical cyclone nears a\nweakness in the ridge.  The new track forecast is almost identical\nto the previous forecast and lies near the various consensus models.\n\nRecent microwave imagery indicates rainbands about 30-40 n mi from\nthe center that are likely the start of an outer eyewall and an\neyewall replacement cycle that will end the current\nintensification.  The new intensity forecast allows for 6-12 h more\nstrengthening before this happens. From 12-48 h, Fernanda should\nremain in a low shear environment over very warm sea surface\ntemperatures. The intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening\nduring this time as a reflection of the guidance.  However,\nfluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall cycles are likely to\noccur, and it would not be surprising if a second round of\nstrengthening occurs if a cycle can finish before Fernanda leaves\nthe very warm water.  After 48 h, the hurricane will move over\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures, and this should result in a\nsteady weakening.  Overall, the new intensity forecast lies at or\nabove the upper edge of the intensity guidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 10.7N 120.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 11.0N 122.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 11.6N 124.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 12.2N 127.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 12.8N 129.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 14.5N 133.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 16.0N 137.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 17.0N 140.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017\n\nFernanda has not intensified during the past few hours. The\nconvective tops surrounding the eye have warmed up a little, but\nthe overall cloud pattern continues to be very impressive. The\nDvorak  T-numbers are 6.0 and 6.5 indicating that winds are still\naround 125 kt.\n\nFernanda has the possibility of some strengthening during the\nnext 12 to 24 hours since the hurricane is embedded within light\nshear and moving over warm waters. After that time, the hurricane\nwill likely maintain the same intensity for a couple of days, but a\nweakening trend should then begin as the circulation of the cyclone\nencounters cooler waters by the end of the forecast period. The NHC\nforecast continues to be above the intensity guidance, and does not\nvary much from the previous one.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt.\nThe cyclone is being steered by a deep layer of easterlies\nassociated with a strong subtropical ridge. A general westward\ntrack with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is anticipated\nas the hurricane approaches the western portion of the ridge over\nthe next 5 days. Track guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC\nforecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 121.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 11.1N 123.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 11.8N 125.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 12.5N 128.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 13.5N 131.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 15.0N 135.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  20/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017\n\nAn AMSR2 overpass around 0925 UTC shows that Fernanda is\nundergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC).  Based on the 36 GHz\ncomposite image from that pass, the inner core at that\ntime consisted of a very small, 10 nm-wide, inner eyewall surrounded\nby a 30 nm-wide outer eyewall.  An earlier WindSat pass at 0149 UTC\nsuggests that the ERC began about 12 hours ago.  This is\nconsistent with a warming trend observed in the cloud top\ntemperatures that began a little before 0000 UTC yesterday.  The\ninitial intensity has been decreased to 120 kt, based on a blend of\nDvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.\n\nAssuming a typical ERC weakening period of about 15 hours, the\nhurricane could reintensify later today, once the outer eyewall\ncontracts.  The environment should support intensification for\nanother 24 hours or so, and the forecast reflects this.  Additional\nERCs could lead to fluctuations in intensity that aren't explicitly\nshown in the forecast.  After about 36 hours, the hurricane will\nbecome embedded in a drier and more stable environment, so steady\nweakening is anticipated.  The new forecast is similar to the\nprevious one, despite the weaker initial intensity, and is above\nmost of the intensity guidance for the first 36 hours.  It is close\nto the intensity consensus by the end of the forecast period.\n\nFernanda is beginning to make a long-anticipated turn toward the\nwest-northwest and the initial motion is now just north of due\nwest, or 275/11.  Almost no change has been made to the track\nforecast, which remains on top of the various multi-model consensus\naids.  A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected for the\nnext several days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge.  The track guidance is still\ntightly clustered, and confidence remains high in the track\nforecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 11.0N 123.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 11.5N 124.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 12.3N 127.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 13.0N 129.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 13.8N 131.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 15.3N 135.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 16.5N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 17.0N 141.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017\n\nA recent AMSU pass indicates that Fernanda continues to have a\ndouble eyewall structure, with the inner eye about 20 n mi in\ndiameter and the outer eye about 60 n mi across.  The appearance of\nFernanda in geostationary satellite images remains impressive with a\nsmall distinct eye surrounding by a ring of cold cloud tops.\nThe cold cloud tops, however, are not quite as expansive as they\nwere earlier.  Accordingly, the latest satellite intensity estimates\nhave decreased slightly and range from 105 to 125 kt, and based on\nthese data, the initial wind speed is lowered a little to 115 kt.\nIt should be noted that it is common for hurricanes that undergo\neyewall replacement cycles (ERC) to weaken during the beginning of\nthe process.\n\nAssuming the ERC completes, Fernanda has an opportunity to\nrestrengthen during the next day or so while it remains in\nfavorable atmospheric conditions and over warm water.  After that\ntime, steady, or even rapid, weakening is expected as the hurricane\nmoves over cooler water and into a drier and more stable air mass.\nAn increase in southwesterly shear should aid in the weakening\nprocess toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity\nforecast is at the high end, or slightly above, the guidance in the\nshort term, but then falls in line with the intensity model\nconsensus after that.  This forecast is a tad lower than the\nprevious one.\n\nA mid-level ridge located over the western United States is steering\nFernanda westward, or 280 degrees, at 11 kt. A west-northwestward\nmotion is expected to begin tonight and continue for the next\nseveral days while the hurricane moves toward a weakness at the\nwestern periphery of the ridge. The track models remain in good\nagreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the\nguidance envelope, in best agreement with the various consensus\nmodels.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 11.4N 124.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 11.9N 125.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 12.7N 128.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 13.4N 130.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 14.1N 132.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 15.7N 135.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 16.8N 138.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 17.3N 141.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 PM PDT Sat Jul 15 2017\n\nRecent microwave imagery, including a just-received GPM overpass,\nindicate that Fernanda continues to have concentric eyewalls with\ndiameters of roughly 10 and 45 n mi.  The eye has become less\ndistinct in conventional satellite imagery since the last advisory,\nand the central convection has become more ragged.  Based on this,\nthe initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt, which is a little below\nthe average of the various satellite intensity estimates.  While the\ninner core has become a little less organized since yesterday, the\nhurricane has developed a large and symmetric area of outer\nconvective banding.\n\nFernanda has about 24 h more in a warm-water, light-shear\nenvironment.  The intensity forecast is based on the premise that\nthe current eyewall replacement cycle will finish before the\nhurricane leaves the warmest water, and thus it calls for some\nre-intensification during that time.  From 24-96 h, Fernanda\nshould remain in a light shear environment, but will move over\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass.\nAfter 96 h, the cyclone will also encounter significant westerly\nshear.  The intensity forecast thus calls for steady to rapid\nweakening after 36 h.  Overall, the new intensity forecast is a\nlittle higher than the model consensus for the first 36 h and near\nthe consensus after that.\n\nFernanda is now moving 285/12, steered by a mid- to upper-level\nridge to the north and northeast.  A west-northwestward motion is\nexpected to continue for the next several days while the hurricane\nmoves toward a weakness at the western periphery of the ridge.\nAfter 96 h, most of the guidance suggests that Fernanda should turn\nwestward as it weakens and becomes steered by the low-level\nsubtropical ridge.  The new forecast track remains near the middle\nof the guidance envelope and in best agreement with the various\nconsensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 11.7N 125.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 12.4N 127.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 13.2N 129.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 14.0N 131.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 14.7N 133.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 17.5N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  21/0000Z 17.5N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017\n\nA 0235Z SSMI/S microwave overpass indicated that Fernanda was still\nundergoing an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC), with concentric\neyewalls remaining at about 20 and 45 n mi diameters. Although the\neye has once again cleared out and become warmer, the convective\ncloud tops surrounding the eye have not cooled much. However, the\noverall convective cloud pattern has improved and become more\nsymmetric, and outer banding features have developed in the\nsoutheastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates are a\nconsensus T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T6.2/122 kt from\nUW-CIMSS ADT. Therefore, the intensity has been increased slightly\nto 115 kt, making Fernanda once again a category 4 hurricane.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/10 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous track forecast reasonings. Fernanda is\nforecast to be steered generally west-northwestward for the next 72\nh by a large low-/mid-level ridge that spans the central and eastern\nPacific Ocean, extending from north of the Hawaiian Islands eastward\nto the U.S. west coast. After that time, a broad upper-level trough\ncurrently located north of Hawaii is expected to weaken and lift\nout to the northeast, causing the ridge to build slightly southward\nand forcing Fernanda on a more westward track. The new NHC track\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close\nto the consensus model TVCN.\n\nAlthough Fernanda has about 24 hours or so remaining over warm-water\nand within a low vertical wind shear environment, there are already\nindications in SST data from Remote Sensing Systems that upwelling\nbeneath the hurricane has begun. This cooler water, coupled with the\nongoing ERC, makes the intensity forecast difficult in the near\nterm. As a result, little change from the current intensity is\nforecast for the next 24 hours, although some intensity fluctuations\ncould easily occur during that time. By 36 hours and beyond, steady\nweakening is forecast as Fernanda moves over sub-26C SSTs, and\nenters a hostile westerly wind shear regime by 96-120 hours. The\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and\nclosely follows the consensus models ICON and IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 12.1N 126.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 12.6N 127.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 13.4N 130.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 14.2N 132.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 15.1N 133.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 16.6N 136.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 17.3N 139.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  21/0600Z 17.6N 142.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017\n\nIt appears that Fernanda completed an eyewall replacement overnight\nwith an 1109 UTC SSMI microwave overpass showing evidence of a\nsingle eyewall with a diameter of about 15-20 n mi.  This may\nhave led to the restrengthening that was indicated in the previous\nadvisory.  Since that time, the eye has remained very distinct in\ninfrared satellite pictures but the convective cloud tops have\nwarmed a little this morning.  Although Dvorak data T-numbers have\ndecreased slightly, the initial intensity remains at 115 kt, in\nagreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.\n\nFernanda is forecast to remain over warm water and within a low\nshear environment during the next 24 hours. During that time,\nadditional eyewall replacement cycles could occur leading to some\nfluctuations in intensity.  Since the timing of eyewall replacement\ncycles are difficult to predict, little change in intensity\nis indicated in the NHC forecast through Monday morning.  After that\ntime, Fernando is forecast to begin moving over cooler waters which\nshould initiate gradual weakening.  The rate of weakening is\nexpected to increase later in the period when Fernanda moves over\nSSTs of 25-26C and westerly shear increases.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the\nvarious consensus aids.\n\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt. The\ntrack forecast reasoning remains unchanged yet again. Fernanda is\nexpected to remain on a west-northwestward heading during the next\n3 days while it is steered by a deep layer ridge to the north of\nthe hurricane.  A westward turn is foreast later in the period, as\nthe ridge builds westward when a trough northeast of the Hawaiian\nIslands lifts out. The track guidance remains in very good\nagreement and the updated NHC track is similar to the previous\nadvisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 12.4N 127.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 13.0N 129.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 13.8N 130.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 14.7N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 15.5N 134.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 16.9N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 17.5N 139.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 17.9N 143.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the eye of Fernanda, which is about\n10 n mi in diameter, is not quite as distinct as it was earlier\ntoday.  The deep convection surrounding the eye is also a little\nless symmetric with a few dry slots noted in infrared pictures.  The\ninitial wind speed is lowered slightly to 110 kt, based on an\naverage of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  The hurricane is still\nover warm water and in a favorable atmospheric environment, and it\nis forecast to remain in those conditions for another day or so.\nTherefore, little change in strength is expected in the short term.\nAfter that time, however, cooler waters, drier air, and an increase\nin wind shear should cause Fernanda to steadily weaken.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and is in\ngeneral agreement with the consensus models.\n\nFernanda continues to move west-northwestward at 10 kt near the\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure system\ncentered over the southwestern United States.  The track forecast\nphilosophy remains unchanged from the past several advisories.  A\ntrough to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is expected to erode\nthe western portion of the ridge during the next few days.  This\npattern change should cause Fernanda to slow down and gain more\nlatitude than it has in previous days.  The trough is expected\nto lift out later in the week allowing the ridge to rebuild to the\nthe north of the tropical cyclone in about 4 days.  This should\ncause Fernanda to turn back toward the west in the 4- to 5-day\nperiod.  The models are in good agreement on this overall\nscenario, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the\nguidance envelope.\n\nThe initial wind radii were expanded outward based on a 1835 UTC\nASCAT overpass.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 12.7N 128.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 13.3N 129.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 14.2N 131.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 15.9N 134.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 17.0N 136.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 17.5N 140.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 16 2017\n\nFernanda's eye has become less distinct, although the overall cloud\npattern remains quite symmetric and the central cloud tops have not\nwarmed significantly so far.  The current intensity is set to 105 kt\nwhich is a blend of subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB\nand SAB and ADT values from UW/CIMSS.  Sea surface temperatures\nbeneath the hurricane will should be slowly cooling over the next\nfew days and, later in the forecast period, west-southwesterly shear\nis forecast to increase.  Therefore gradual weakening is forecast\nduring the next couple of days followed by a more rapid decline\nthereafter.  The official intensity forecast is a little above the\nmodel consensus through 48 hours and very close to it in 3-5 days.\n\nThe initial motion estimate, 290/10 kt, is not much different from\nearlier today.  Fernanda is expected to approach the western\nperiphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the\nUnited States.  This should cause the tropical cyclone to slow down\nand turn a little to the right.  In 4-5 days the global models\nshow a ridge building to the north of Fernanda and this is likely\nto cause a turn toward the west around that time.  The official\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the\nlatest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 13.0N 129.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 13.7N 130.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 14.6N 132.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 15.5N 133.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 16.3N 134.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 17.3N 137.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 17.8N 140.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  22/0000Z 18.3N 144.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nThe eye of Fernanda is not as distinct as it was over the\npast day or so and appears cloud-filled at times in satellite\nimages. The cloud tops surrounding the eye, however, remain very\ncold and the extent of the area of deep convection has grown since\nyesterday. In addition, the convective pattern remains fairly\nsymmetric due to the light wind shear conditions. The Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB were both 5.5/102 kt, and the ADT\nvalues from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a little\nhigher. Based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is held at\n105 kt. Fernanda is beginning to pull away from the warmest waters,\nand it is expected to track over progressively cooler waters during\nthe next few days. These less favorable oceanic conditions combined\nwith a drier and more stable air mass and an increase in westerly\nwind shear should cause Fernanda to steadily weaken through the\nforecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the\nprevious one and is in good agreement with the consensus models.\n\nFernanda continues to move to the west-northwest at 10 kt, steered\nby the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The track\nforecast philosophy remains unchanged. A trough to the northeast of\nthe Hawaiian Islands is expected to erode the western portion of the\nridge and should cause Fernanda to move west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward at a slower pace during the next few days. After that\ntime, the trough is expected to lift out allowing a ridge to rebuild\nto the north of the tropical cyclone. This should cause the system\nto turn toward the west by the end of the forecast period. The\ntrack models are tightly clustered, and only small changes were made\nto the previous NHC track forecast.\n\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a 0542 UTC\nASCAT-B overpass.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 13.4N 130.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 15.0N 132.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 16.0N 133.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 17.6N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 17.9N 141.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  22/0600Z 18.2N 145.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nFernanda's eye has - once again - become clear in the shortwave\ninfrared imagery with a slightly asymmetric ring of very cold cloud\ntops surrounding the 15 nm eye.  A blend of the subjective Dvorak\nfixes from SAB/TAFB along with the objective Advanced Dvorak\nTechnique gives 110 kt intensity, maintaining Fernanda as a Category\n3 hurricane.\n\nIn the short term, the SSTs beneath Fernanda will gradually cool,\nreaching 26C in about 36 hours.  By days 4 and 5, the vertical shear\nshould go up substantially due to Fernanda moving closer to a\ntropical upper-tropospheric trough.  Thus the official intensity\nforecast shows steady weakening with the system becoming a remnant\nlow around day 5.  This forecast is closest to a blend of the LGEM\nand D-SHIPS statistical intensity schemes, as well as the HCCA\ncorrected consensus technique.  (The HWRF and COAMPS dynamical\nmodels appear to hold on to too strong a system at days 3 and\nbeyond, based upon the environment that Fernanda is expected to\nencounter.)\n\nThe hurricane is tracking toward the west-northwest at about 9 kt.\nFernanda is expected to turn slightly toward the northwest during\nthe next couple of days as it moves around the southwestern\nperiphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge.  By days 3 to 5, the\nsystem should turn back toward the west as it gets advected along in\nthe low-level flow as a weakening tropical cyclone.  The NHC\nforecast is nearly unchanged from the previous advisory and is based\nupon the TVCN multi-model consensus technique.\n\nThe initial wind radii were maintained based on the earlier 0542Z\nand 0626Z ASCAT scatterometer overpasses.  The forecast wind radii\nare based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus technique.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 13.7N 130.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 14.4N 132.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 15.3N 133.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 16.1N 134.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 16.8N 135.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 17.5N 138.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 17.9N 142.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  22/1200Z 18.3N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nRecent satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located\nseveral hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, has acquired a\nwell-defined center and the associated deep convection is\nsufficiently organized for the system to be classified as a tropical\ndepression.  This marks the formation of the seventh cyclone of the\neastern Pacific hurricane season.  The system is sheared with the\ncenter located near the northwestern edge of the primary convective\nmass.  Earlier ASCAT data revealed believable 25-30 kt winds, and\nthe initial intensity is set to 30 kt.  The environment ahead of\nthe cyclone is not ideal for significant strengthening.  Moderate to\nstrong northwesterly shear is expected to continue for another 24\nhours, but is then forecast to lessen late Tuesday when the system\nis located in a col area between two large upper level lows.\nThe shear is expected to become quite strong by day 4 when the\ncyclone approaches the westernmost upper low/trough.  This shear,\nalong with cooler waters, should cause weakening late in the period.\n\nThe somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 280/5 kt. The\ndepression is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward to the\nsouth of a mid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the\nwestern United States.  The track guidance is in relatively good\nagreement through 72 hours, but there is significant spread after\nthat time, due to possible interaction with a disturbance currently\nlocated about 750 n mi west of the depression.  The ECMWF takes the\ndepression on a more northward track around the northern portion of\nthe circulation of the western system, while the GFS weakens the\ndepression and shows it merging with the second disturbance.  Given\nthe large spread in the guidance, the NHC foreast lies near the TVCN\nmulti-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus at days 4 and\n5, and is of low confidence.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 14.1N 105.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 14.4N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 14.8N 107.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 15.2N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 16.8N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 17.1N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  22/1200Z 17.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Don Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017\n500 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area\nof low pressure located east-southeast of the Windward Islands has\nfound a small, but well-defined surface circulation and a small\narea of tropical-storm-force winds over the eastern semicircle of\nthe circulation.  The associated convection is not particularly\nwell organized, but there is a curved band located to the north\nof the center and a couple of bursts have formed closer to the\nsmall circulation center this afternoon. Based on these data,\nadvisories are being initiated on a tropical storm, the fourth of\nthe 2017 Atlantic hurricane season. Don is currently within a\nlow shear environment and over warm water, so some strengthening is\npossible tonight and Tuesday. Once the system enters the eastern\nCaribbean Sea, strong upper-level westerly winds and strong\nlow-level easterly flow are likely to cause the small circulation to\nopen up into a trough.  As a result, dissipation is forecast within\n72 hours.\n\nDon is moving westward or 275/15 kt. The tropical storm is forecast\nto move quickly westward within the strong trade-wide flow for the\nnext few days.  The NHC track is along the southern edge of the\nguidance envelope, closest to the HFIP corrected consensus\nprediction.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 11.2N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 11.5N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 11.8N  58.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 12.0N  62.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 12.2N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nAlthough the central convection has eroded slightly, Fernanda\nremains a well-organized tropical cyclone.  The upper-level outflow\nis well defined over most of the circulation and the cloud pattern\nremains quite symmetric in appearance.  The current intensity\nestimate remains 110 kt, which is a blend of the various subjective\nand objective Dvorak estimates.  Since Fernanda will be traversing\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures, gradual weakening is likely\nduring the next couple of days.  Later in the forecast period,\nvertical shear, associated with a large upper-level trough near the\nHawaiian Islands, should result in more rapid weakening.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is very close to the model consensus.\n\nThe motion is bending slightly to the right and slowing.  The\nmid-level ridge to the north of Fernanda is forecast to weaken over\nthe next couple of days.  This should cause a turn toward the\nnorthwest with a little more slowing in forward speed over the next\n48 hours.  Later in the forecast period, a more leftward heading is\nlikely while the ridge rebuilds somewhat.  The official forecast\ntrack is only slightly north of the previous one and is close to the\nmodel consensus, TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 14.1N 131.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 14.8N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 15.7N 133.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 17.1N 136.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 17.9N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 18.3N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  22/1800Z 18.8N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n300 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nAlthough there has been some increase in the overall amount of deep\nconvection associated with the system, the center has become a\nlittle more separated from the primary convective mass due to\nmoderate to strong northwesterly shear.  Satellite intensity\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB support maintaining an intensity of\n30 kt for this advisory.  The moderate to strong shear is expected\nto decrease within the next 12 to 24 hours, which should provide an\nopportunity for some strengthening.  The latest global model\nguidance suggests that the shear could become quite low in 36 to 48\nhours, which could result in some additional intensification.\nHowever, the NHC forecast remains a little more conservative since\nthe cyclone must survive its current encounter with the shear to\ntake advantage of the potentially more favorable environment in a\ncouple of days.  In about 72 hours, southwesterly shear is foreast\nto increase as the cyclone begins moving over cooler waters.  These\nenvironmental factors should cause weakening later in the period and\nthe NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by day\n5.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/7 kt, a little faster than before. The\noverall forecast track reasoning is unchanged from the previous\nadvisory.  The depression is expected to move westward to west-\nnorthwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends\nwestward from northern Mexico.  The track guidance has come into a\nlittle better agreement at 72 h and beyond, with the latest ECMWF\nand GFS runs converging toward the previous NHC track.  The updated\nNHC forecast is similar to the previous one and once again is close\nto the HFIP corrected consensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 14.1N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 14.3N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 14.6N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 15.0N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 15.5N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 16.4N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 17.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  22/1800Z 17.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Don Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017\n1100 PM AST Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nBefore completing its mission in Don, the Air Force Reserve\nreconnaissance aircraft twice measured reliable surface winds around\n40 kt via the SFMR instrument, and that is set as the initial\nintensity for this advisory.  A burst of deep convection which began\njust after 2000 UTC has persisted for the past several hours, and\nsmall clusters of lightning have periodically occurred near the\nestimated center.\n\nDon is embedded within a narrow east-west zone of low shear, and\nthat shear is expected to remain low for another 24 hours or so.\nSince the cyclone has a compact circulation, significant changes in\nintensity--both up and down--become more likely.  Therefore, given\nthat the environment looks favorable for the next 24 hours, the new\nNHC intensity forecast shows strengthening up to 50 kt as Don\napproaches the Windward Islands.  After 24 hours, increasing\nwesterly shear should induce weakening while Don moves through the\nsoutheastern Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to\ndegenerate into an open wave by 72 hours, if not sooner.  Since\nmodel guidance varies widely between only showing an open wave (most\nof the global models) to Don reaching hurricane strength (HWRF and\nsome of the statistical models), it cannot be stressed enough that\nconfidence in the intensity forecast is very low at this time.\n\nDon's initial motion is 280/16 kt.  There is also a bit of\nuncertainty in the track forecast, especially in Don's future\nforward speed, since most of the global models don't show a strong\nenough vortex to provide a tracker.  However, the general trend\nis for Don to move just north of due west and speed up by 24 hours.\nThe updated NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous\nforecast after 24 hours, mainly based on the latest GFS and ECMWF\nglobal model fields.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 11.3N  54.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 11.6N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 12.0N  61.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 12.3N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 12.5N  69.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 PM PDT Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nConventional satellite and two earlier GMI and GCOM-W1 microwave\nimages indicate partial erosion in the southeast quadrant of the\neyewall. Inner core cloud top temperatures have warmed, particularly\nover the aforementioned quadrant and in the western portion.  A\nblend of the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates yields a\nlowered initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.  Continued\ngradual weakening is forecast through the forecast period due to the\ncyclone traversing cooler oceanic SSTs and moving into a more stable\nand drier air mass with increasing vertical shear.  The official\nforecast has been adjusted down a bit from the previous forecast\nbased on the lowered initial intensity and follows the IVCN\nmulti-model consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/8 kt.\nGlobal models show a large amplitude mid- to upper-level\ntropospheric trough situated to the northeast of the Hawaiian\nIslands lifting northeastward around the 48-hour period,\nallowing the subtropical ridge to the north of Fernanda to rebuild\nwestward.  This change in the synoptic steering pattern should\ncause the cyclone to turn back toward the west-northwest and\ncontinue in this motion through day 5.  The NHC forecast track is\nadjusted to the right of the previous advisory beyond day 3 and is\nin between the GFS/ECMWF blend and the TVCN consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 14.7N 132.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 15.4N 133.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 16.2N 134.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 16.9N 135.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 17.3N 136.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 18.0N 139.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  22/0000Z 18.6N 142.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  23/0000Z 19.3N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n900 PM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017\n\nAlthough the center of circulation appears to have separated from\nthe cloud canopy a little more this evening, satellite imagery shows\nvery little change in the disorganized cloud pattern of the\ndepression.  A compromise of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates\nfrom both TAFB and SAB again support holding an intensity of 30 kt\nfor this advisory.  The strong west-northwesterly shear is forecast\nto decrease somewhat during the next 24 to 36 hours which should\nallow the cyclone to intensify a little.  The large-scale models and\nthe statistical-dynamical intensity guidance show the vertical shear\nreturning around the 72-hour period, in addition to the depression\nmoving over cooler water.  Subsequently, the official forecast\nreflects the aforementioned environmental changes and indicates a\ngradual spin-down into a remnant low beyond the 48-hour period.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 280/8 kt, similar to the\nprevious package. The depression is forecast to move westward to\nwest-northwestward to the south of an anchored mid-level ridge that\nstretches westward from northwestern Mexico.  The global and\nregional models are in quite good agreement through day 3.\nAfterward, there is some increasing spread between the majority of\nthe guidance and the HWRF.  The HWRF is indicating some\ninvolvement with the disturbance between Fernanda and the\ndepression, and in fact, shows the disturbance merging with the\ndepression.  The official track forecast, however, discounts this\nscenario at this time, and is nudged closer to the model cluster and\nthe HFIP corrected consensus model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 14.3N 106.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 14.5N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 14.8N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 15.1N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 15.5N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 16.4N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  22/0000Z 16.7N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  23/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Don Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017\n500 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nDon's convective pattern has continued to improve overnight and\nearly this morning, including the development of a pronounced\ncentral dense overcast (CDO) feature. There have also been periodic\nbursts of deep convection very near the center, accompanied by\nsignificant clusters of lightning activity, which is indicative of\nstrong updrafts in or near the radius of maximum winds. The last\nrecon data around 0000Z indicated peak SFMR surface winds of 41 kt.\nGiven the marked increase in convective organization since that\ntime, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains 280/16 kt. There is no change\nto the previous track forecast or reasoning. Although the models\ncontinue to differ some on Don's forward speed, there is very little\ncross-track difference. The models are in good agreement that the\nbroad Bermuda-Azores ridge to north of the cyclone will remain\nstrong and move little for the next several days, which should act\nto keep Don moving briskly westward until dissipation occurs at\naround 72 hours. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an\nextension of the previous advisory track, and is slightly north of\nthe multi-model consensus TVCN.\n\nDon is expected to remain embedded within a narrow east-west zone of\nlow vertical wind shear for another 24-36 hours, which should allow\nfor some additional strengthening. Since Don is a compact tropical\ncyclone, significant changes in intensity -- both up and down --\ncan occur due to small fluctuations in wind shear and/or interaction\nwith the mountainous Windward Islands. By 36 hours, increasing\nwesterly shear is expected to cause Don to weaken while it moves\nacross the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and degeneration into an open\nwave is forecast to occur by 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast\nis similar to the previous advisory and remains below the consensus\nmodels ICON and IVCN. However, the intensity guidance continues to\nvary widely between only showing an open wave (most of the global\nmodels) to Don achieving hurricane strength (HWRF, ECMWF, and some\nof the statistical models). As a result, confidence in the intensity\nforecast remains low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 11.5N  56.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 11.8N  59.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 12.1N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 12.4N  67.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 12.7N  71.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nFernanda is gradually weakening.  The eye of the hurricane is no\nlonger apparent in satellite images, and dry slots are evident in\nmicrowave images over the eastern portion of the circulation.  The\ncloud pattern now consists of a fairly circular central dense\novercast with curved bands surrounding the convective mass.  The\nDvorak CI-numbers are 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the ADT\nvalues from UW-CIMSS are similar.  Based on these estimates, the\ninitial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt.\n\nFernanda is still over relatively warm sea-surface temperatures, but\nit is headed for cooler waters, and by 24 hours it should be\ncrossing the 26 deg C isotherm.  These cooler waters combined with\ndrier air and a significant increase in southwesterly wind shear\nthat begins in a few days should cause the cyclone to steadily\nweaken.  Fernanda is predicted to be a remnant low by the end of the\nforecast period when the SHIPS model shows the shear increasing to\nnear 30 kt and the environmental mid-level relative humidity values\nbelow 40 percent.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\nprevious one and generally follows the intensity model consensus.\n\nThe track forecast philosophy for Fernanda remains unchanged.  The\nhurricane continues to move northwestward at 8 kt toward a weakness\nin the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough to the northeast\nof the Hawaiian Islands.  This general motion is expected to\ncontinue for the next 24 hours or so.  After that time, the trough\nis forecast to lift out, allowing the ridge to rebuild to the north\nof the weakening system.  This pattern change should cause Fernanda\nto turn westward to west-northwestward.  Only small changes were\nmade to the previous NHC track forecast, and the new one lies near\nthe middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 15.4N 132.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 16.1N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 16.9N 134.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 17.4N 136.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 17.8N 137.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z 18.6N 140.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  22/0600Z 19.3N 143.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  23/0600Z 19.9N 147.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n300 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nDeep convection has increased in both intensity and coverage during\nthe last several hours over and to the southeast of the center of\nthe cyclone.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB at 0600\nUTC were 2.0/30 kt, but ADT values and satellite consensus estimates\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest a slightly higher\nintensity.  Based on the improvement in convective organization\nduring the past few hours, the initial intensity is increased to 35\nkt, making the system Tropical Storm Greg.\n\nThe northwesterly shear currently affecting Greg is expected to\ngradually lessen, and the upper-level wind pattern will likely\nbecome favorable in the 24- to 60-h time frame.  Therefore, the NHC\nintensity forecast continues to show modest strengthening during the\nnext couple of days.  After that time, however, the shear is\nexpected to increase out of the south or southwest as the cyclone\napproaches an upper-level low. This increase in shear combined with\ndrier air and cooler waters should end the strengthening trend and\ncause weakening.  The depression will likely degenerate to a remnant\nlow in 4 to 5 days when it moves over SSTs below 26 deg C.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in line\nwith the bulk of the guidance.\n\nGreg is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt to the south of a low- to\nmid-level ridge.  A westward to west-northwestward motion with some\nincrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days as\nthe ridge strengthens a little.  Some of the models show Greg\ninteracting with the disturbance currently located about 700 n mi\nto its west in 4 to 5 days, which could cause the cyclone to turn\nsouth of due west at that time.  The track models are in general\nagreement, and the NHC forecast lies closest to the consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 14.6N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 14.7N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 15.0N 110.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 15.4N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 15.8N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z 16.9N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  22/0600Z 17.1N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  23/0600Z 16.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Don Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017\n1100 AM AST Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft\nindicate that the tropical storm has weakened this morning.  The\nhighest flight-level and SFMR observations support an intensity of\n30-35 kt and the data also show that the circulation has become\nless defined and in fact it may lack a closed surface circulation.\nAdvisories are being maintained for now pending another\nreconnaissance aircraft mission later today.\n\nIncreasing westerly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to\ncontinue to weaken the tropical cyclone as it moves through the\nWindward Islands and the eastern Caribbean during the next day or\nso.  The NHC forecast calls for Don to weaken to a tropical\ndepression in about 24 hours and degenerate into a an open wave\nwithin 36 hours.  This could occur much sooner than indicated below.\n\nThe track forecast reasoning remains unchanged.  Don should continue\nto move quickly westward within the strong trade wind flow until\ndissipation occurs.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the\nprevious advisory and is near the model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 11.5N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 11.7N  60.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 12.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nFernanda's eye is only intermittently visible in the shortwave\ninfrared imagery this morning.  The deep convection is still quite\ncold and symmetric around the center and a 1016Z AMSR2 microwave\nimage showed that a nearly complete eyewall was present.  Subjective\nDvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB and the objective ADT have\ndropped slightly, so an initial intensity of 85 kt is analyzed.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 8 kt.  Fernanda's\nmotion is being influenced by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its\nnortheast and a mid-level trough to its northwest.  In a couple\nof days, the trough lifts out and a mid-level ridge builds in north\nof Fernanda causing the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the\nwest-northwest or west.  The official track forecast is based upon\nthe tightly clustered TVCN multi-model track consensus and is\nnearly identical to the previous advisory.\n\nFernanda should continue to steadily weaken during the next couple\nof days as it ingests stable, dry air over increasingly cooler\nSSTs.  In two to three days, southwesterly vertical shear should\nsubstantially increase and further contribute to Fernanda's\nweakening.  The official intensity forecast - nearly the same as\nfrom the previous advisory - is based upon a blend of the LGEM/SHIPS\nstatistical guidance and the COAMPS mesoscale hurricane model.\n\nNo scatterometer or AMSU size measurements have been available\nrecently, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been\nmaintained.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 15.6N 133.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 16.3N 134.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 17.0N 135.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 17.5N 136.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 18.0N 138.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 18.8N 141.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 19.5N 145.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  23/1200Z 20.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n900 AM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nShear has lessened over the system and the center now appears to be\nbeneath the dense overcast.  The intensity is held at 35 kt in\naccordance with a Dvorak estimate from SAB.  Gradual strengthening\nis forecast while Greg moves over warm waters.  Late in the period,\nincreasing shear and cooler waters should cause weakening.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is near or a little below the model\nconsensus.\n\nGreg has been moving west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level\nridge.  Although the ridge is expected to remain in place for the\nnext several days, a slight complicating factor in the track\nforecast is a cyclone, newly formed Tropical Depression Eight-E,\nlocated about 500 n mi to the west of Greg.  Some of the models\nindicate that Greg could interact with the other cyclone in a few\ndays by turning south of west.  The official forecast shows a\nslightly south of westward motion in the latter part of the period.\nThis is roughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 15.0N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 15.2N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 15.4N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 15.7N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 16.2N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 17.5N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 17.3N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  23/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n800 AM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with the area of low pressure located\nwell southwest of the Baja California peninsula developed closer to\nthe system's center overnight.  It has also produced convection for\nmore than 24 hours despite strong northwesterly shear.  Based on the\nrecent slight improvement in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of\n2.0 and 2.5 from SAB and TAFB, advisories are initiated on a 30-kt\ntropical depression.\n\nA large upper-level low centered to its north-northwest is currently\nimparting about 25-30 kt of shear over the system.  The shear is not\nexpected to lessen during the next day or two, and only slight\nstrengthening is indicated in the official forecast during that\ntime.  After 72 hours, the upper-level wind pattern could become\nless hostile which could allow for some strengthening if the\ntropical cyclone survives the shear over the next couple of days.\nThe latter portion of the intensity forecast is of low confidence.\n\nThe depression has been moving slowly westward or west-\nnorthwestward, but is expected to begin a slow southwestward motion\nlater today, which is due in part to the circulation of Tropical\nStorm Greg to its east. Later in the forecast period, as Greg passes\nto its north, the tropical cyclone should begin to move west-\nnorthwestward at a faster forward speed.  An alternative\nscenario shown by the GFS and UKMET models is for the depression to\nweaken and be absorbed by the circulation of Greg in a few days.\nGiven the possible interaction of Greg, the confidence in the\ntrack forecast is also quite low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 14.6N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 14.6N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 14.3N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 13.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 13.4N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 13.3N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  23/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Don Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017\n500 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Don has continued to pulse near the\nalleged center today, with an increase in shower and thunderstorm\nactivity over the northern and northwestern portions of the system.\nThese rains have started to spread over the Windward Islands, and\nsustained winds of 25 to 30 kt have been reported at Barbados during\nthe past few hours.  Satellite, microwave, and surface data continue\nto suggest that the circulation of the system is likely not closed.\nAnother reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled this evening,\nwhich should help to determine if Don is still a tropical cyclone.\n\nThe anticipated westward acceleration of the system seems to have\noccurred, with the initial motion now westward or 275/19 kt.  Don or\nits remnants should continue to move briskly westward during the\nnext day or so in the fast trade wind flow over the southeastern\nCaribbean Sea.\n\nIncreasing westerly shear, dry mid-level air, and the fast westward\nmotion of the system are likely to cause the tropical storm to\ndegenerate into a trough of low pressure by late Wednesday, if not\nsooner.  Given the fast forward speed, the remnants are likely to\ncontinue producing wind gusts to near tropical storm force over the\nnext couple of days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 11.7N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 11.9N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 12.0N  67.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nSomewhat surprisingly, Fernanda has made a small comeback this\nafternoon as its eye has become distinct in the visible satellite\nimagery in the midst of a ragged ring of very cold cloud tops.\nSubjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB and the\nobjective ADT have increased some, so an initial intensity of 90\nkt is analyzed.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt.  Fernanda's\nmotion is being influenced by a deep-layer subtropical ridge to its\nnortheast and a mid-level trough to its northwest.  In a couple of\ndays, the trough lifts out and a mid-level ridge builds in north of\nFernanda causing the tropical cyclone to turn back toward the\nwest-northwest or west.  The track guidance is tightly clustered for\nthe first couple of days but at the extended range the guidance\nshows more spread, especially along the track.  The official track\nforecast is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and is\nnearly identical to the previous advisory.\n\nFernanda is expected to steadily weaken during the next couple of\ndays as it ingests stable, dry air over increasingly cooler SSTs.\nIn two to three days, southwesterly vertical shear should\nsubstantially increase and further contribute to Fernanda's\nweakening.  By days 4 and 5, the winds from Fernanda may be\naugmented some by a strong pressure gradient setting up north of the\ntropical cyclone.  The official intensity forecast - nearly the same\nas from the previous advisory - is based upon the IVCN multi-model\nintensity consensus.\n\nOnce again, no scatterometer or AMSU size measurements have been\navailable recently, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been\nmaintained.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 16.0N 133.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 16.7N 134.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 17.3N 135.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 17.9N 137.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 18.3N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 19.0N 142.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 20.0N 146.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  23/1800Z 20.5N 150.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n300 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nSatellite imagery suggests that the circulation of Greg has become\nbetter defined today.  However, the earlier dense convective\novercast has dissipated, leaving a small area of convection near\nthe center and some thin outer banding.  Subjective satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt, while estimates\nbased on microwave sounder data are 40-45 kt.  Based on the current\nconvective trends, the initial intensity remains 35 kt, and it is\npossible this is conservative.  Water vapor imagery indicates that\nupper-level westerlies produced by the outflow of Hurricane\nFernanda and Tropical Depression Eight-E are impinging on the\nwestern side of Greg, although the analyzed vertical shear is\ncurrently low.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/8.  For the first 48 h, Greg should move\ngenerally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge.  After that,\nthe forecast becomes low confidence due to interaction, and\npossible merger, with Tropical Depression Eight-E.  The\nlarge-scale models are showing run-to-run inconsistency on which of\nthe cyclones will be dominant during this process and which might\nget destroyed.  The current forecast scenario is that both systems\nwill survive, with Greg moving quickly around the north semicircle\nof the circulation of Eight-E.  The new forecast track is near the\nmodel consensus through 72 h and north of the model consensus after\nthat time.\n\nA combination of light/moderate vertical wind shear and warm sea\nsurface temperatures should allow Greg to slowly strengthen during\nthe first 36-48 h.  After that, the intensity forecast also becomes\nlow confidence due to the interaction with Tropical Depression\nEight-E.  The forecast track takes Greg over decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures after 48-60 h, and on this basis the intensity\nforecast shows a weakening trend.  However, an alternate forecast\nscenario is for Greg to weaken faster than currently forecast during\nthe cyclone interaction.  The new forecast follows the trend of the\nguidance and is a little above the intensity consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 14.6N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 14.8N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 15.2N 112.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 15.6N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  23/1800Z 16.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n200 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nStrong northwesterly shear continues over the depression with deep\nconvection confined to the southern portion of the circulation.\nRecent visible satellite images also show that there are a couple\nof low-level vorticity centers rotating about the mean center.  A\nrecent ASCAT pass that caught the eastern portion of the depression\nonly revealed winds of around 20 kt.  However, the initial\nintensity will remain a possibly generous 30 kt for this advisory\nsince the instrument did not sample the area of strongest\nconvection to the southwest of the center.\n\nThe strong vertical wind shear currently over the cyclone is\nexpected to continue during the next day or two, and the official\nforecast show no strengthening during this time.  In about 3 days, a\nmore favorable upper-level pattern could materialize, but given the\nuncertainty about the structure of the tropical cyclone at that\ntime and the potential interaction of nearby Tropical Storm Greg,\nthe NHC intensity forecast does not reflect much change in wind\nspeed.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/4.  The track forecast remains\nquite uncertain as the models show some interaction between the\ndepression and Tropical Storm Greg.  Most of the models indicate\nthat the depression will move slowly southwestward during the next\ncouple of days until Greg passes to the north in about 72 hours.\nAfter that occurs, the cyclone should begin to move west-\nnorthwestward at a faster forward speed under the influence of a\nlow- to mid-level ridge that is predicted to extend westward from\nnorthwestern Mexico.  Due to the expected complex interaction\nbetween, and possible merger of, the two tropical cyclones the\nforecast track of the depression remains quite low.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 14.9N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 14.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 14.4N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 14.0N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 13.7N 122.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 13.7N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  23/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Don","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Don Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052017\n1100 PM AST Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft made several passes\nthrough the system this evening and was only able to find a sharp\nwind shift--but no winds with a westerly component.  Pressures have\nalso risen, and it appears that Don no longer has a center of\ncirculation.  Therefore, Don is being declared an open wave, and\nthis is the last advisory on this system.  Based on the aircraft\ndata, the wave is still producing maximum winds of 35 kt west of\nthe Windward Islands over the far southeastern Caribbean Sea.\n\nThe wave is moving westward at about 22 kt, and it should continue\nmoving quickly westward across the Caribbean Sea during the next\ncouple of days.  Due to the system's fast motion, as well as\nunfavorable atmospheric conditions over the Caribbean Sea,\nregeneration into a tropical cyclone is not expected at this time.\nHowever, the wave is expected to continue producing gales through\nearly Wednesday, and then winds just below gale force for the next\ncouple of days.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Don, and additional information on this\nsystem can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National\nWeather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01\nKWBC, and available on the Web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 11.9N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DON\n 12H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nEnhanced Infrared BD-curve GOES-15 imagery indicates considerable\ncooling of the eye this evening.  In fact, the eye has cooled nearly\n30 degrees C during the past 6 hours, and is no longer visible\nin conventional imagery.  A blend of Dvorak satellite intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 85 kt for\nthis advisory.  The cyclone should continue on a steady weakening\ntrend during the next 48 hours as it traverses decreasing oceanic\nSSTs and moves into a more thermodynamically stable air mass.\nToward the end of the forecast period, increasing southwesterly\nshear associated with a developing cut-off low north of the Hawaiian\nIslands is expected to further support a gradual spin-down of\nFernanda.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects weakening to a\npost-tropical cyclone in 4 days, and further degenerating to a\nremnant low at day-5.  The forecast is again based primarily on the\nIVCN consensus model.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/8 kt.\nThe NHC forecast track philosophy remains unchanged for this\nadvisory.  Fernanda is expected to turn toward the west-northwest\nduring the next 24 hours and continue on that general heading\nthrough day 5 in response to a subtropical ridge reestablishing to\nthe northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  The official forecast has\nbeen adjusted slightly to the right of the previous advisory and\nlies close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA), and the GFS/ECMWF\n(GFEX) model blend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 16.5N 134.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 17.1N 135.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 17.8N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 18.3N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 18.8N 139.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 19.7N 143.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  23/0000Z 20.6N 146.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  24/0000Z 21.5N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n900 PM MDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nThe convective organization of Greg has improved this evening.  A\nband consisting of cloud tops colder than -70C wrapping about 3/4 of\nthe way around the circulation is apparent in IR imagery.  Dvorak\ncurrent intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45\nknots, so the initial intensity has been increased to that value.\n\nDespite the presence of a large upper-level low to the north east\nand outflow from nearby Fernanda and TD Eight-E, the analyzed shear\nover the center of Greg remains low.  The low shear, combined with\nwarm SSTs and a fairly moist environment should allow for at least\nmodest intensification for the next 24-48 hours.  After that time, a\ncombination of factors including a drier and more stable\nenvironment, interaction with TD Eight-E, and increased shear\nassociated with the upper-level low should cause weakening and the\neventual dissipation of the tropical storm. The current forecast\nis close to the model consensus and assumes that Greg will be the\ndominant cyclone in any interaction with TD Eight-E.  Weakening\nwould probably occur sooner if the opposite scenario occurred.\n\nA 2316 UTC SSMIS overpass was very helpful in locating the center of\nGreg, which was a little farther west than previously estimated.\nThe initial motion is now 275/9 kt.  Although no significant changes\nhave been made to the track forecast, confidence remains fairly\nlow, especially beyond 72 hours.  For the next 24 hours, there is\ngood agreement that Greg will move generally westward, along the\nsouthern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  Although the extent of\nthe interaction varies, the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET all show some\ndegree of a Fujiwhara-type interaction with TD Eight-E.  This\ninteraction, coupled with a slight weakening of the ridge, should\ncause Greg to move a little farther north and more quickly toward\nthe west during days 2 and 3.  A turn back toward the west-southwest\nis shown at the end of the forecast, assuming at least some\ncontinued interaction with the remnants of TD Eight-E.  The forecast\nis closest to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 14.6N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 14.8N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 15.2N 113.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 15.8N 115.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 16.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 17.4N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  23/0000Z 16.8N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  24/0000Z 15.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n800 PM PDT Tue Jul 18 2017\n\nThe depression continues to produce small bursts of deep convection,\nbut microwave data and the last few visible images of the day\nindicate that the low-level center is exposed to the northeast of\nthe thunderstorm activity.  Visible imagery also shows a band of\ncirrus flowing right over the depression's circulation, indicative\nof about 25 kt of west-northwesterly shear.  Since Dvorak intensity\nestimates have not changed from six hours ago, the initial intensity\nis held at 30 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe big question mark for both the depression's future track and\nintensity is how it will interact with Tropical Storm Greg to its\neast.  All the global models show the depression swinging to the\nsouthwest and south of Greg during the next several days as the two\ncirculations interact.  The GFS model shows Greg becoming the\ndominant cyclone, with the depression eventually dissipating.\nHowever, the ECMWF and Canadian models seem to prefer the depression\nbecoming the dominant system and absorbing Greg.  The UKMET is\nsomewhere in between, with the two circulations merging. Since Greg\nis the stronger of the two systems at this point, we are favoring\nthat being the dominant one, and the new NHC forecast shows the\ndepression weakening over time and dissipating by 96 hours.\nHowever, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast, and\nadjustments would be needed if it becomes apparent that the\ndepression will end up being the dominant cyclone.\n\nThe depression is moving slowly westward with an initial motion of\n270/4 kt.  Regardless of the cyclone's future intensity, a more\npronounced interaction looks increasingly likely, and the track\nguidance has shifted southward on this forecast cycle.  As a result,\nthe updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted south of the\nprevious forecast, and it lies close to the various consensus aids.\nThis solution is not, however, quite as far south as the HWRF, GFS,\nand HCCA models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 14.8N 119.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 13.7N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 13.2N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 13.3N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nFernanda's convective cloud pattern has continued to wither, and\nhas been accompanied by a general warming of the cloud tops. The eye\nis no longer evident in infrared imagery and a 0640Z AMSU overpass\nindicated that the eye had become open in the southern semicircle.\nIntensity estimates are a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB,\nalong with a recent CIRA-AMSU estimate of 82 kt. A blend of these\nvalues supports lowering the advisory intensity to 80 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains 310/08 kt. Fernanda is forecast\nto move northwestward today and turn toward the west-northwest by\ntonight or Thursday. A continuation of that general motion is\nexpected through the end of the forecast period due to a strong\nsubtropical ridge remaining entrenched to the north and northeast of\nthe Hawaiian Islands.  The new NHC forecast track is almost on top\nof the previous advisory track, and lies close to the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus (HCCA) and TVCN consensus models.\n\nFernanda is expected to steadily weaken throughout the forecast\nperiod. The first 36-48 hours of weakening will primarily be due to\nthe cyclone moving over sub-25C SSTs. Following that will be a\nsharp increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear to 25-30 kt,\ncausing Fernanda to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by 72\nhours. The official intensity forecast follows the downward trend of\nthe previous advisory and is similar to the ICON and IVCN consensus\nmodels.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 17.0N 135.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 17.5N 135.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 18.6N 138.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  21/0600Z 19.1N 140.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 20.1N 143.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  23/0600Z 21.1N 147.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  24/0600Z 22.0N 152.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n300 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nThe increased convective organization of Greg proved to be\nshort-lived.  Although the SHIPS-analyzed shear remains low, the\ncloud pattern now resembles that of a sheared tropical cyclone.  A\n0458 UTC ASCAT-B overpass caught the eastern half of the\ncirculation, showing no winds above 30 kt, while  Dvorak-based\nestimates of the current intensity range from 45 to 57 kt.  The\ninitial intensity has only been lowered to 40 kt since the ASCAT\npass missed the western half of the circulation, but this could be\ngenerous.\n\nBased on the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the analyzed center of the\ntropical storm has been shifted farther south, and the overall\ntrack forecast nudged southward accordingly.  While the reasoning\nbehind the forecast is unchanged, the model spread is still fairly\nhigh, and run-to-run consistency is low.  For instance, the 120-h\nforecast points from the 18Z and 00Z GFS model differ by nearly 300\nnmi. The CMC, ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET global models still show Greg\nand TD Eight-E interacting to various degrees, with each cyclone\nbeginning to affect the others track in about 36 hours.  This\ninteraction should ultimately cause Greg to accelerate toward the\nwest-northwest.  After about 72 hours it is still assumed that Greg\nwill be the dominant cyclone, so only a slight turn back toward the\nwest-southwest is forecast. If TD Eight-E instead becomes dominant,\nthen a more pronounced southern turn would be expected.\n\nAlthough the initial intensity is a little lower than the previous\nadvisory, most of the guidance still suggests that Greg will\ngradually strengthen within a warm-SST, high-moisture, low-shear\nenvironment for the next 24-36 hours. Thus little change has been\nmade to the intensity forecast, which remains near the IVCN and HCCA\nconsensus aids.  If TD Eight-E becomes the dominant cyclone, an\nalternate scenario is that Greg will dissipate much sooner than\ncurrently forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 14.3N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 14.4N 112.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 14.8N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 15.4N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  21/0600Z 16.0N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 16.9N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  23/0600Z 15.8N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  24/0600Z 15.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n200 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nThe overall convective pattern of the depression has changed little\nsince the previous advisory and remains ragged looking. Cloud tops\ncolder than -70C have persisted near and to the south of the\nlow-level center, yielding satellite estimates of T2.5/35 kt from\nSAB and UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the intensity will remain at 30 kt\nfor this advisory since a 0500Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated a few\nwind vectors of 27-28 kt in the southwestern quadrant.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 20/05 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The global and\nregional models are in decent agreement on the depression engaging\nin some weak binary interaction with the larger circulation of\nTropical Storm Greg as the latter cyclone passes about 200 nmi to\nthe north over the next few days. The new forecast track is similar\nto the previous advisory track and lies near the TVCN consensus\nmodel.\n\nThe upper-level westerly outflow on the east of Hurricane Fernanda\nis expected to keep the depression in a moderate to strong vertical\nwind shear regime for the next couple of days. After that,\nnortherly outflow from Greg should act to maintain unfavorable\nshear conditions across the depression, preventing any significant\nstrengthening until the system dissipates by 96 hours. The new\nintensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and\nfollows the consensus model IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 14.6N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 14.3N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 13.8N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 13.3N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  21/0600Z 12.9N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 13.2N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nWhile there are still occasional glimpses of the eye in infrared\nimagery, the convective cloud pattern of Fernanda continues to\nslowly decay. The initial intensity is thus reduced a little more,\nto 75 kt, based on a blend of various satellite intensity\nestimates.  Water vapor imagery shows that the outflow is becoming\nrestricted in the southwestern quadrant, which is a reflection of\n10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical shear affecting the cyclone.\n\nThe initial motion is 310/7.  Fernanda is expected to turn\nwest-northwest later today and continue this motion through 72 h as\nit is steered by a strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north.\nThis ridge is forecast to persist after 72 h.  However, the\nguidance becomes more divergent during that time, likely due to how\nquickly the various large-scale models weaken Fernanda.  The NAVGEM\nand Canadian models, which weaken the cyclone quickly, show a\ngenerally westward motion of the remnants.  The GFS and the HWRF,\nwhich maintain a stronger vortex, show a more northerly motion on\nthe right side of the guidance envelope.  The ECMWF is between these\nextremes, and this part of new track forecast is a little to the\nnorth of the ECMWF and a little south of the model consensus.\nOverall, the new forecast is little changed through 72 h, then\nnudged north of the previous forecast thereafter.\n\nFernanda is expected to steadily weaken through the forecast period\ndue to various combinations of cool sea surface temperatures,\nsouthwesterly to southerly shear, and dry air entrainment.  Thus,\nthe new forecast again follows the trend of the previous advisory\nand calls for Fernanda to weaken to a tropical storm in less than 24\nh, a post-tropical low by 72 h, and a remnant low by 96 h.  The new\nforecast is little changed from the previous forecast and lies\nclose to the intensity consensus.  It should be noted that the GFS\nand ECMWF show the possibility that Fernanda could interact with an\nupper-level trough north of the Hawaiian Islands in a way that\ncould prolong its life as a tropical cyclone.  Currently, the\nconfidence in this happening is too low to justify a change to the\nforecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 17.4N 135.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 17.9N 136.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 18.5N 138.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 19.0N 139.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 19.5N 141.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 20.5N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  23/1200Z 22.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  24/1200Z 23.0N 153.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n900 AM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nEarlier microwave data indicate that the center of Greg was located\nnear the northwestern edge of the main convective cloud shield.\nHowever, recent early-light visible satellite images suggest the\nsystem is beginning to become better organized with the center\nembedded beneath the cold cloud tops and increased banding over the\nwestern portion of the circulation.  Subjective and objective Dvorak\nsatellite estimates range from 43 kt to 55 kt, but the initial\nintensity will remain 40 kt, in deference to the overnight ASCAT\ndata which indicated that peak winds were lower than the Dvorak\nestimates.\n\nThe shear that has been affecting the tropical cyclone during the\npast couple of days appears to be decreasing.  This is expected to\nallow strengthening while Greg moves over warm SSTs and through a\nhigh moisture environment.  The intensity guidance is a bit higher\nthan before, with the HWRF, HCCA, and SHIPS guidance making Greg a\nhurricane in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC forecast is a little more\nconservative and slightly below the model consensus late in the\nperiod due to uncertainties regarding the potential interaction\nwith TD Eight-E.  The global models have trended over the past 24\nhours of indicating Greg will become the dominate cyclone.  If these\ntrends continue, additional upward adjustments to the NHC intensity\nforecast may be needed.\n\nGreg is moving westward or 270/9 kt. A mid- to upper-level ridge\nextending westward from northwestern Mexico should steer the\ntropical storm westward to west-northwestward during the next day or\ntwo. After that time, Greg is forecast to accelerate westward around\nthe northern portion of TD Eight's circulation and continue on\nthat general heading late in the period as the ridge builds westward\nto the north of the cyclone. Although the track guidance has come\ninto better agreement on this scenario, there still remains a fair\namount of uncertainty due to the potential interaction with TD\nEight. The models have trended toward a slower motion in the short\nterm and the NHC track has been adjusted according.  At 72 hours and\nbeyond, the official forecast is close to the various consensus\naides, and not too different from the previous NHC track.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 14.2N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 14.3N 113.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 14.7N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 15.9N 119.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 16.4N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  23/1200Z 15.7N 130.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  24/1200Z 15.5N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n800 AM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nThe center of the depression is challenging to locate this morning\nwith lots of disorganized convection in the vicinity of the apparent\ncenter.  Microwave data suggest it is on the northeast side of the\nconvective mass, although it doesn't agree that well with the\novernight ASCAT data.  The initial position tries to keep continuity\nfrom the overnight advisory, since there was a direct ASCAT hit at\n0600Z, but it may have to be revised when visible imagery is\navailable.  The initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt, based on a\nblend of the TAFB/SAB fixes.\n\nUnfortunately the forecast of the depression isn't any easier than\nlocating it.  Some binary interaction with the circulation of\nTropical Storm Greg is likely over the next few days since the\ncyclones should be moving fairly close to one another. This pattern\nwould probably steer the depression southwestward, then\nnorthwestward by day 3 as Greg passes to the north and begins to\ndraw the depression closer to it.  The specifics of this\ninteraction, however, are impossible to determine at this range\nbecause it also depends on how strong and exactly where the two\nsystems are. It is becoming increasingly likely that Greg will be\nthe more dominant and stronger system, causing the depression to\ntake a more southward track, and would potentially absorb the\ndepression in 4-5 days.  The official forecast is shifted southward\nin the short-term to account for the latest model guidance, but is\nfairly close to the previous forecast at the end of the period.\n\nThe intensity forecast is also tricky because many of the global\nmodels suggest that there is a window of lower shear between when\nthe northwesterly outflow-related shear from Fernanda weakens and\nshifts to easterly shear related to the circulation and outflow from\nGreg.  Most of the guidance, however, does not respond much to the\nlower shear, suggesting little change in intensity during the next\ncouple of days. The new intensity forecast remains close to the\nmodel consensus and the previous NHC prediction, though the cyclone\ndoes have a small chance to become a tropical storm.  The majority\nof the global models are showing the depression degenerating into a\ntrough by day 4 due to increasing shear and interaction with the\ncirculation of Greg, so the NHC forecast follows suit.\n\nIt should be noted that this is a very uncertain forecast due to\nthe unusually high number of difficult-to-predict variables.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 14.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 14.0N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 13.3N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 12.6N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 12.3N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nFernanda continues to slowly weaken, with the convection gradually\ndecreasing in coverage and intensity due to cool sea surface\ntemperatures and increasing shear.  The initial intensity is\nreduced to 70 kt based on a blend of the various satellite\nintensity estimates, and this value is on good agreement with the\nCIMSS satellite consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is now 300/7.  Fernanda is expected to continue\nthis motion through 72 h as it is steered by a strong low- to\nmid-level ridge to the north.  This ridge is forecast to persist\nafter 72 h.  However, the guidance continues to show divergence\nduring that time, with the models that forecast Fernanda to weaken\nmore quickly showing a more westward motion.  One change in the\nguidance since the last advisory is that the GFS and the HWRF show a\nmore westward motion after 72 h than previously, and this has helped\nshift the consensus models southward to near the old forecast track.\nBased on this, the new forecast track is changed little since the\nprevious advisory, and lies near the current runs of the consensus\nmodels.\n\nFernanda is expected to steadily weaken through the forecast period\ndue to various combinations of cool sea surface temperatures,\nsouthwesterly to southerly shear, and dry air entrainment.  One\nchange from the previous advisory is to keep the system as a\ntropical cyclone at 72 h based on the GFS and ECMWF forecasting\nassociated organized convection at that time.  Otherwise, the new\nintensity is similar to the previous forecast and in good agreement\nwith the intensity consensus.\n\nThe initial and forecast wind radii have been revised based on a\njust-received scatterometer overpass.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 17.7N 136.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 18.1N 137.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 18.7N 139.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 19.2N 140.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 19.7N 142.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 21.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  23/1800Z 22.0N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  24/1800Z 23.0N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n300 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Greg has thinned out again this\nafternoon, with the low-level center evident near the northwestern\nportion of a loosely curved convective band.  Although Dvorak\nsatellite intensity estimates suggest maximum winds of 45 to 55 kt,\nrecent ASCAT data continued to support a lower intensity of around\n40 kt.  The cirrus outflow and current structure of the tropical\ncyclone continue to suggest that there is moderate shear over the\nsystem which may be coming from a layer below 200 mb since the\nanalyzed 850 to 200 mb shear is low.  The global models predict\nthat there should be a better upper-level wind pattern over Greg\nwithin the next couple of days, and as a result, strengthening is\nforecast.  However, the NHC forecast remains below much of the\nguidance and the intensity consensus since the shear has failed to\nabate thus far. After 48 hours, the GFS and ECWMF show Greg in very\ndifferent upper-level environments with the GFS being much more\nconducive than the ECMWF.  Due to this uncertainty, the NHC forecast\nagain is below the intensity consensus at 72 hours and beyond, and\nit is a low confidence forecast.\n\nGreg is moving westward at about 9 kt. There has been no\nsignificant change to the track forecast reasoning.  Greg is\nforecast to move west-northwestward during the next couple of days\nto the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge that extends westward\nfrom northern Mexico.  Greg should turn westward and accelerate\naround the northern portion of TD Eight-E's circulation in a few\ndays.  The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this\noverall scenario, but there are large along-track or speed\ndifferences with the GFS being much slower than the ECMWF.  Overall,\nthe track guidance has again trended slower so the NHC forecast has\nbeen adjusted accordingly.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 14.3N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 14.4N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 14.9N 115.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 15.5N 118.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 16.2N 125.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  23/1800Z 16.0N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  24/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n200 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nVisible images confirm that the depression is not very well\norganized with limited banding features and a partially exposed\ncenter.  ASCAT and satellite classfications suggest that the winds\nhave dropped to 25 kt, and this will be the initial wind speed.\n\nCirrus cloud motions show that the northwesterly shear continues to\nimpinge on the depression.  While this shear could abate somewhat\ntomorrow, it is likely to quickly resume again by Friday due to\nenhanced upper-level outflow from Tropical Storm Greg.  Thus little\nchange in intensity is shown in the new NHC intensity forecast, in\nline with the latest guidance, with some weakening expected on\nFriday.  It would not be surprising if the circulation of the\ndepression opened up into a trough during the next day or two.\n\nThe initial motion of the depression is west-southwest at 5 kt.  The\nsystem should move to the southwest or south-southwest around the\ncirculation of Tropical Storm Greg for the next day or two.  Model\nguidance has come into better agreement that Greg will be the\ndominant cyclone, and the track is shifted southward from the\nprevious one.  By 72 hours, all of the global models open up the\ndepression into a trough as the weak system gets pulled\nnorthwestward toward Greg.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 14.1N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 13.6N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 12.9N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 12.3N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 12.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\n\nFernanda's cloud pattern has continued to decay with shrinking and\nweakening convection, while microwave imagery suggests that the\ninner core has collapsed. In fact, it appears that the mid- and low-\nlevels are beginning to separate.  Intensity estimates from all\nagencies reflect such decay, and based on Dvorak T-numbers, the\nmaximum winds have been reduced to 65 kt, and this could be\ngenerous.  A large portion of the circulation is already over cooler\nwaters, and this factor, in combination with increasing shear\nand the presence of dry air should result in additional weakening,\nas indicated in the NHC forecast.\n\nFernanda is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt.\nThe cyclone is well embedded within the deep trade winds associated\nwith the southern portion of the subtropical high. This steering\npattern will likely persist, so no significant change in track is\nanticipated. A slight turn toward the west is expected by the end of\nthe forecast period when Fernanda will likely be a shallow cyclone\nsteered by the low-level trades. The NHC forecast is very similar to\nthe previous one and follows very closely the multi-model consensus\nTVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 18.2N 137.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 18.6N 138.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 19.6N 141.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 20.2N 143.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  23/0000Z 21.5N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  24/0000Z 22.5N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  25/0000Z 23.5N 156.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n900 PM MDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nGreg's convective pattern has not improved this evening, with most\nof the associated shower and thunderstorm activity concentrated to\nthe south and west of the center.  Since subjective and objective\nDvorak estimates have either remained steady or fallen from six\nhours ago, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt based on the\nearlier ASCAT passes.\n\nGreg's initial motion is westward, or 270/9 kt.  A strong mid- to\nupper-level ridge axis extending westward from northern Mexico\nshould cause Greg to move westward or west-northwestward for the\nentire forecast period, but at a slightly faster forward speed\nbeginning in about 24 hours.  The biggest forecast challenge for\nGreg's track is its forward speed, since there is a notable\ndifference between the faster ECMWF and the slower GFS and HWRF\nmodels.  Longitude-wise, the updated NHC forecast is close to the\nTVCN multi-model consensus.  However, a slight shift in the overall\nguidance envelope required a bit of a southward nudge compared to\nthe previous forecast.\n\nIt's not exactly clear why Greg's convection has not become any\nbetter organized since the analyzed deep-layer shear is less than 10\nkt.  However, products from UW-CIMSS do suggest that there is 15-20\nkt of mid-level shear extending northeast of Greg's center, which\ncould be disrupting the convection in that quadrant.  Assuming that\nthe ambient environment slowly improves over time, Greg should be\nable to eventually become better organized and strengthen as\nindicated by most of the intensity models.  The updated NHC\nforecast has been bumped up slightly at 24 hours and beyond to be\na little closer to the intensity consensus.  However, this new\nforecast is still 10-15 kt below the usually reliable models like\nHWRF, HCCA, and Florida State Superensemble, just in case Greg\ncontinues to struggle in becoming better organized.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 14.1N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 14.3N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 14.8N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 15.2N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 15.6N 121.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  23/0000Z 15.7N 126.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  24/0000Z 15.3N 131.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  25/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n800 PM PDT Wed Jul 19 2017\n\nThe depression has changed little in structure since the last\nadvisory.  Small bursts of convection have been pulsing near the\ncenter of circulation, with a band extending to the southwest.  The\ninitial intensity remains 25 kt, mainly because there has been no\nnew data to suggest otherwise.\n\nThe initial motion is slowly west-southwestward, or 245/5 kt.  The\ndepression is expected to be steered around the western side of\nTropical Storm Greg's circulation during the next couple of days,\nwhich will induce a slow southwestward to southward motion.  The\ntrack models have locked into this scenario, and the new NHC track\nforecast is very similar to the previous one.\n\nWater vapor imagery continues to show the depression being blasted\nby strong upper-level winds to the south of a large upper-level low,\nwhich is resulting in about 15 kt of shear.  Although the cyclone\ncould escape some of this shear while it moves southward around\nGreg, the damage will probably already be done by that point.\nSince the convection is already losing organization, and the global\nmodels show the cyclone's circulation being disrupted by Greg soon,\nthe depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 36\nhours, if not sooner.  The remnant circulation should then\ndissipate south or southeast of Greg by day 3.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 13.9N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 13.4N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 12.7N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 12.0N 123.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/0000Z 11.9N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nFernanda is beginning to experience moderate southwesterly vertical\nwind shear, which has resulted in a pronounced degradation of the\nconvective cloud pattern since the previous advisory. Recent AMSU\nand SSMI/S microwave satellite data indicate that the shear has\ntilted the vortex toward the north, resulting in the initial\nposition being located a little south of the satellite fix\npositions and closer to the southwestern edge of the coldest cloud\ntops. The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt based on a\nblend of consensus T-numbers of T3.5/55 kt and CI-numbers of T4.0/65\nkt from both TAFB and SAB.\n\nFernanda's motion is now 290/08 kt. The weakening cyclone is\nexpected to continue moving generally west-northwestward along the\nsouthern periphery of a broad deep-layer subtropical ridge for about\nthe next 72 hours. By days 4 and 5, a faster westward motion is\nforecast as the shallow vortex comes under the influence of the\nbrisk low-level easterly trade wind flow. The latest GFS model run\nappears to keep Fernanda too strong and vertically deep after 48 h,\nwhich has resulted in a track well north of any of the other model\nguidance. As a result, the new NHC forecast has been shifted a\nlittle south of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and\nis then close to the middle of the guidance envelope after that.\n\nFernanda should steadily succumb to the effects of cooler water,\ndrier air, and shear increasing to 30 kt throughout the forecast\nperiod, resulting in weakening and degeneration into a remnant low\nby around 48 hours. It is possible that the system could even open\nup into a tropical wave by 96-120 hours when it is passing just\nnorth of the Hawaiian Islands. The official intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN\nconsensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 18.2N 137.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 18.5N 138.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 19.0N 140.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 20.1N 144.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/0600Z 21.6N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  24/0600Z 22.7N 152.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  25/0600Z 23.8N 158.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n300 AM MDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nAn ASCAT pass at 0458 UTC revealed that Greg is a little weaker than\npreviously estimated.  The maximum winds were 31 kt, limited to a\nsmall area 50 n mi due north of the center of circulation. Since the\ntime of the ASCAT pass, the cloud pattern of Greg has improved\nconsiderably, and a band of deep convection now wraps nearly all the\nway around the circulation.  The initial intensity is set at 35 kt,\nassuming at least a little undersampling in the ASCAT pass, and\nallowing for some increase in the winds due to the increase in\nconvection.\n\nIt is not yet clear if the recent increase in the organization of\nGreg is temporary or the beginning of a longer-term trend.  It is\nworth noting that around 0000 UTC yesterday, the tropical storm\nfeatured a similar band that weakened after about 6 hours.  There is\na fair amount of spread in the intensity guidance.  Notably, the\nLGEM model shows a peak intensity of only 43 kt while the HWRF peaks\nat 77 kt.  Given that the environment appears at least somewhat\nconducive for strengthening, the official forecast still shows Greg\nreaching hurricane strength in a few days and is very close to the\nintensity consensus IVCN.\n\nThe initial motion is again 270/9 kt.  No significant changes were\nmade to the first 72 hours of the track forecast, and Greg is still\nexpected to be steered generally westward by a strong ridge to the\nnorth.  At days 4 and 5 there is more spread in the guidance, with\nsome models turning the cyclone toward the northwest and others\nkeeping it on a westward heading.  For now, the forecast splits the\ndifference between the GFS and ECMWF models, both of which show a\nslowdown and slight turn toward toward the northwest at the end of\nthe forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 14.1N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 14.3N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 14.7N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 15.1N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 15.4N 122.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  23/0600Z 15.6N 127.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  24/0600Z 15.8N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  25/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n200 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nIt has been difficult to locate the center this evening, and the\ncirculation of the depression appears to be limited to a shallow\nlayer near the surface.  The cloud pattern is unchanged and deep\nconvection remains limited to a single band in the southwestern\nquadrant.  Satellite intensity estimates remain largely unchanged\nsince the previous advisory, and the initial intensity is held at\n25 kt.\n\nThere is no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A combination\nof shear from an upper-level low to the north and interaction with\nTropical Storm Greg to the east should prevent the depression from\ngaining any organization, causing the system to gradually weaken.\nMost of the dynamical guidance suggests that the cyclone will no\nlonger have a well-defined center within the next 48 hours or so,\nand only a slight decrease in convective organization would cause\nthe system to become a remnant low.  A WindSat overpass around\n0200 UTC suggested that the circulation was already becoming\nelongated, so dissipation could occur sooner than indicated.\n\nThe initial motion remains 245/5 kt.  The depression is still\nexpected to be advected generally southwestward, around the\ncirculation of Tropical Storm Greg.  The track models have all\nshifted slightly westward, so the NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted a little in that direction, but otherwise no significant\nchanges have been made.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 13.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 13.2N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 12.5N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 12.0N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/0600Z 11.6N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nSince the last advisory, Fernanda has become significantly sheared\nwith the low-level center now exposed to the southwest of a rather\nsmall area of deep convection.  The initial intensity is reduced to\n55 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and it is\npossible that this is generous.  While the sea surface temperatures\nalong the forecast track should increase, a combination of\ncontinued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air\nshould keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast\nperiod. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression in 24-36\nh and degenerate into a remnant low shortly thereafter, with the\nnew intensity forecast being an update of the previous forecast.\n\nThe now-exposed center is a little west of the previous advisory\nposition, and the initial motion is now 285/8.  Fernanda is\nexpected to move generally west-northwestward through the forecast\nperiod as the increasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by\nthe low-level trade winds.  The new forecast track is parallel to,\nbut south of, the previous track based on the current position and\nmotion.  However, it lies to the north of the consensus models and\nthe center of the guidance envelope, and if current trends continue\nsome additional southward adjustment of the track could occur later\ntoday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 18.2N 139.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 18.6N 140.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 19.0N 142.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 19.5N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 20.1N 145.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  24/1200Z 22.5N 154.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 160.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nGreg has become notably better organized during the past several\nhours with a growing curved band stretching around the eastern and\nsouthern semicircles of the storm.  This organization trend is also\nseen on a 1139Z SSMIS microwave pass, which shows a better-defined\ncentral core.  Satellite intensity estimates are between 45-55 kt,\nand the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, on the low side since\nthe satellite signature has been above the ASCAT data for the past\nday or so.\n\nThe northwesterly shear from yesterday has diminished, leading to a\nsymmetric outflow pattern near the storm.  While the SSTs are\nexpected to be warm enough for strengthening for the next few days,\nthe possible interaction of Greg and a mid/upper-level trough\nnear 130W is a complicating factor in the forecast, along with the\ninteraction of the remnants of Eight-E.  While both of these\nfeatures could temporarily cause less favorable conditions, they are\nnot expected to be enough to prevent at least gradual strengthening\nof Greg.  Most of the model guidance is a bit higher than the\nprevious advisory, and the NHC forecast is bumped up from the\nprevious package.  This forecast could turn out to be conservative\nif the favorable environments seen in the HWRF and HMON models\nmaterialize.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/9.  A westward to west-\nnorthwestward motion is forecast for the next several days while\nGreg is steered by a ridge to the north.  There is some possibility\nthat the aforementioned trough could weaken the ridge enough to\ninduce a more northwestward turn by the end of the forecast,\nalthough that is dependent on exactly how far north Greg is at that\ntime.  Since the forecast is for a slightly stronger cyclone, which\nwould be more likely to feel the weakness, it makes some sense to\nshift the track a little northward by day 5.  Thus the NHC track\nforecast is adjusted poleward at long range, but remains south of\nthe model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 14.1N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 14.3N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 14.7N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 15.1N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 15.4N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 16.0N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 16.3N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nThe center of the depression remains difficult to find, but it\nappears to be near a small area of disorganized convection.  As\nwith the previous advisory, the satellite intensity estimates remain\nlargely unchanged and the initial intensity is held at 25 kt.\n\nThere is again no change to the intensity forecast thinking. A\ncombination of shear from an upper-level low to the north and\ninteraction with Tropical Storm Greg to the east should cause the\ndepression to weaken and eventually dissipate.  The intensity\nforecast has the system degenerating into a remnant low after 24 h\nand dissipating after 48 hr as it become absorbed into Greg.\nHowever, the system could decay to a remnant low at any time before\nthen.\n\nThe initial motion remains 245/5 kt.  The depression is still\nexpected to be advected slowly southwestward around the\ncirculation of Greg until dissipation.  The new forecast track is an\nupdate of the previous track.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 13.4N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 12.9N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 12.1N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 11.6N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/1200Z 11.6N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nFernanda is comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds that\nis currently devoid of deep convection.  The initial intensity is\nreduced to 50 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates, and\nit is again possible that this is generous.  While the sea surface\ntemperatures along the forecast track should increase, a combination\nof continued moderate-to-strong shear and entrainment of dry air\nshould keep Fernanda steadily weakening through the forecast\nperiod.  The cyclone is now forecast to become a depression in\nabout 24 h and a remnant low in about 36 h, and both of these events\ncould occur earlier if convection does not redevelop.  The new\nintensity forecast also now calls for the system to degenerate to a\ntrough after 96 h, in agreement with all of the large-scale models\nexcept the GFS.\n\nThe initial motion is now 280/11.  Fernanda is expected to move\nwest-northwestward to westward through the forecast period as the\nincreasingly weak and shallow vortex is steered by the low-level\ntrade winds.  The new forecast track is shifted a little to the\nsouth of the previous forecast based on the current motion and the\npremise that a weaker system will move more westward in the current\nenvironment.  The new track now lies a little to the south of the\nmodel consensus.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\non Fernanda.  Future information on this system can be found in\nPublic Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center\nbeginning at 5 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header\nWTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2100Z 18.2N 140.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 19.0N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 19.6N 145.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/1800Z 20.2N 147.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/1800Z 21.5N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  24/1800Z 22.5N 156.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nThe structure of Greg has not changed much during the past few\nhours, consisting of a large curved band feature with the center\nlocated on the inside edge of the banding feature.  The satellite\nintensity estimates are the same as 6 hours ago, so the initial wind\nspeed estimate remains 45 kt.\n\nGreg appears to be in a conducive environment for intensification\nfor the next couple of days with warm water, low shear, and a moist\nmid-level atmosphere.  While a mid/upper-level trough to the\nnorthwest could influence the storm, it is forecast to remain far\nenough away to not cause any significant shear.  Thus, the intensity\nforecast is raised slightly from the previous advisory, but remains\nnear or below the intensity consensus since there is still some\nuncertainty about how the remnants of TD Eight-E affect the storm.\nGradual weakening should begin in about 3 days due to the cyclone\nmoving over cooler waters.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/9.  A westward to west-\nnorthwestward motion is forecast for the next several days while\nGreg is steered by a ridge to the north.  Model guidance is\ngenerally in good agreement through about 72 hours, but then the\nmodel spread grows beyond that time, depending on the respective\nmodel's ridge strength in the western portion of the eastern Pacific\nand the latitude of Greg.  The differences in the model fields are\nrather subtle, so it seems best to just stay close to the model\nconsensus at this time.  The consensus aids haven't changed much in\nthe past 6 hours, and the latest NHC track forecast is basically\njust an update of the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2100Z 14.2N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 14.4N 117.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 14.9N 119.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 15.4N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 15.8N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 16.3N 132.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  25/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Eight-E Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP082017\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Eight-E has\ndegenerated to a low pressure area in the Intertropical Convergence\nZone, with neither the organized convection nor well-defined\ncirculation of a tropical cyclone.  The remnant low is forecast to\npersist for 48 h and then be absorbed by Tropical Storm Greg\npassing to the north.  While the system will be monitored for signs\nof redevelopment, the chance of this occurring appears very low at\nthe present time.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\non the system.  For additional information on the remnant low please\nsee High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,\nunder AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2100Z 13.3N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  21/0600Z 12.7N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  21/1800Z 11.9N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  22/0600Z 11.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/1800Z 11.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 PM PDT Thu Jul 20 2017\n\nGreg's center is embedded between a large and persistent band of\nconvection to the south and newly developing convection to the\nnortheast, but the banding continues to have a tough time wrapping\naround the northwestern side of the circulation.  Since Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed all day, and final-T\nADT numbers have actually decreased, the initial intensity will\nremain 45 kt.\n\nGreg is located to the south of anomalously strong low- to\nmid-level ridging, which is pushing the cyclone westward with an\ninitial motion of 275/9 kt.  Greg is forecast to move on a westward\nor west-northwestward course for the rest of the forecast period,\nand there is good model agreement through 48 hours.  After 48\nhours, however, the spread in the model guidance is larger than\nnormal.  The GFS and HWRF, for example, show a stronger Greg moving\nmore slowly toward the northwest by day 5.  On the other hand, the\nECMWF and UKMET have a weaker Greg moving faster and staying\nfarther south, with some interaction with the remnants of T.D.\nEight-E still possible.  As a compromise between these two\nscenarios, the updated official forecast is just a little slower\nand south of the previous forecast on days 3 through 5, and it is\nnot too far from the various model consensus aids.\n\nThe environment seems as though it should be conducive for\nstrengthening.  However, Greg has defied that thought for the past\nday or so, as it seems that something about its structure has\nprevented it from benefiting from relatively low shear and warm\nSSTs.  However, microwave data suggests that the cyclone has\nrecently developed some improved low-level banding around the\ncenter, which could be a harbinger of a gradual intensification\ntrend.  The new NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as the\nprevious one, showing Greg becoming a hurricane in 36 hours and then\nweakening on days 3 through 5 as it moves over progressively cooler\nwaters.  This forecast generally lies between the less aggressive\nstatistical-dynamical models and the stronger HWRF and HCCA models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0300Z 14.3N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 14.6N 118.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 15.1N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 15.5N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 15.7N 125.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 15.8N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z 16.1N 133.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  26/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017\n\nA band of deep convection remains wrapped around the eastern half\nof the circulation, but little convection is present on the western\nside of the cyclone.  Since the convective structure is more or\nless the same as before, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are\nunchanged, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt.\n\nBoth the track and intensity forecasts are challenging.  The\nintensity guidance spread is high, ranging from the COAMPS-TC\nmodel, which makes Greg a major hurricane in 3 days, to the LGEM,\nwhich peaks at 49 kt.  Based on the SHIPS diagnostics from both the\nGFS and ECMWF forecast fields, the warm SST, low shear environment\nwould seem to support strengthening in the short term.  On the\nforecast track, Greg should encounter a drier and more stable\nenvironment that should bring a halt to any intensification after\nabout 72 hours.  The NHC forecast is close to the HWRF model for the\nfirst 48 hours, and still shows Greg reaching hurricane strength.\nAfter that, the HWRF and COAMPS-TC models show continued\nintensification, but that seems unlikely in what is expected to be\nan unfavorable environment.  The NHC forecast instead follows the\ntrend of the statistical models late in the period and shows steady\nweakening.\n\nThe center has been difficult to locate tonight, and the initial\nmotion is an uncertain 280/9 kt.  For the first 48 hours or so, Greg\nshould continue on a west or west-northwest heading, below a low to\nmid-level ridge. Beyond that, there is tremendous spread in the\nmodel guidance.  The GFS and UKMET positions vary by over 450 n mi\nat 120 h, with the ECMWF lying in between.  The GFS and the\nGFS-based regional models all depict a relatively stronger Greg\nmaking a right turn around 48 h and heading into the mid-level\nridge.  On the other hand, the ECMWF and UKMET continue a weaker\nGreg westward for another couple of days.  Given that only modest\nstrengthening is forecast, the latter scenario seems somewhat more\nlikely at this point.  The official track forecast is very close to\nthe ECMWF at days 4 and 5. Given the high spread in the guidance,\nconfidence in the track forecast beyond 48 h is low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0900Z 14.5N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 15.3N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 15.6N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 15.7N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 16.0N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  25/0600Z 16.4N 133.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  26/0600Z 18.0N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 AM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the central convection associated\nwith Greg has become more compact over the last several hours,\nthough it is mostly on the northern side of the circulation.\nMicrowave data also show an increase in organization with a\nthin mid-level eye feature now apparent.  Although the conventional\nsatellite estimates haven't changed, based on the increased\nstructure in microwave data, the initial wind speed is bumped up to\n50 kt, a blend of the latest CI estimates from TAFB/SAB.\n\nThe initial motion is a more confident 285/9. A trough to the\nnorthwest of Greg is forecast to lift northward during the next\ncouple of days, which will probably cause Greg to shift to a more\nwestward track by Sunday as a ridge builds in slightly.  The\nshort-term forecast has been shifted northward, similar to the\nmodel consensus. In the longer range, the storm should turn to the\nwest-northwest or northwest due to a small low- to mid-level trough\ndropping out of the mid-latitudes, weakening the periphery of the\naforementioned ridge. Model guidance, however, is not in good\nagreement on the long range forecast, with many of the differences\ndue to the strength of the storm.  It is probably prudent to wait\nuntil the 12Z models come in to see if the ECMWF continues its\nprevious solution, which the prior NHC forecast weighted heavily.\nThus the new NHC track forecast is basically an update of the last\nforecast, on the western side of the model consensus at days 4 and\n5.\n\nGreg has a couple of days over warm water left to strengthen.\nHowever, the environment is less than optimal, with light-to-\nmoderate southerly shear and a drying mid-level atmosphere forecast.\nOn the other hand, Greg is finally displaying a more solid inner\ncore, which would generally promote strengthening.  Overall, these\nfactors support some intensification during the next couple of days,\nand that is the solution shown in the latest NHC forecast. Gradual\nweakening should begin by day 4 due to colder waters.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z 15.1N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 15.7N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.9N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 16.2N 130.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  25/1200Z 17.1N 133.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  26/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017\n\nEarly visible satellite images and recent microwave data indicate\nthat the disturbance that NHC has been tracking for the past few\ndays over the far eastern Pacific has gained enough convective\norganization and circulation to be designated a tropical depression.\nThe low-level center is difficult to precisely locate, but is\nestimated to be under the area of deep convection and east of\na developing cyclonically curved band.  Dvorak estimates are 2.0 and\n1.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.\n\nThe initial intensity has been set at 30 kt, but environmental\nconditions are very favorable for the depression to become a\ntropical storm later today or Saturday and then a hurricane. Most\nof the intensity models agree with this scenario and so does the\nofficial forecast which follows the consensus quite close.\n\nThe depression appears to be moving toward the west or 280 degrees\nat about 12 kt.  The cyclone is well embedded within a persistent\ndeep-layer flow associated with a subtropical ridge extending from\nMexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern is not\nexpected to change much, keeping the cyclone on the same general\ntrack well south of the coast of Mexico during the next five days.\nThe NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope\nand very close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.\n\nThis is the 5th tropical cyclone in the eastern Pacific basin during\nthis very busy July.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z  9.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z  9.4N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 10.0N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 10.9N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 12.2N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 14.5N 104.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  25/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  26/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017\n\nGreg has thrown me a curveball today with the center unexpectedly\nbecoming exposed southwest of the main ball of convection.  While\nthere is clearly an impressive low-level circulation, as seen by\nboth conventional and microwave images, Greg has become less\norganized overall.  Satellite intensity estimates, consequently,\nhave dropped, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 45 kt.\n\nWhile Greg is forecast to remain over warm waters for the next\ncouple of days, dry air in the mid-levels and some westerly shear\nis likely to impede the strengthening process, despite an intact\nlow-level core present on microwave data.  Thus the intensity\nforecast is held steady for about a day.  Thereafter, the regional\nhurricane models suggest Greg will have a chance to reintensify,\nalthough this is far from a slam dunk with an uncertain\nenvironment.  I have elected to show some intensification on day 2\nof the forecast, but reduced by only about 10 kt from the previous\nprediction due to continuity constraints.  The guidance continues to\nindicate a weaker storm, so it would not be surprising if later\nshifts had to lower the forecast winds more.\n\nThe initial motion has shifted to 275/11.  The subtropical ridge\nshould hold to the north of Greg for the next few days, steering\nthe storm generally westward.  Thereafter, Greg should turn to the\nwest-northwest due to a small low- to mid-level trough dropping out\nof the mid-latitudes, weakening the periphery of the aforementioned\nridge. Model guidance has trended southward, following the lead of\nthe 00Z ECMWF.  With a weaker storm expected, it makes sense that\nGreg would feel less of the trough, so the official forecast is\nshifted to the southwest, close to a blend of the 12Z ECMWF and\nmodel consensus forecasts.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z 14.9N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 15.1N 122.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 15.3N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 15.5N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 15.6N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 15.8N 132.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  25/1800Z 16.8N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  26/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n400 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017\n\nAlthough the convection is not very deep at this time, the\norganization of the cloud pattern has continued to improve with\nvarious curved bands wrapping around the center. An average of the\nobjective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are\nstill 30 kt. The depression is embedded within an ideal moist\nenvironment with low shear and it is moving over warm SSTs. On this\nbasis, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening, and the depression\ncould reach hurricane status in about 48 hours or sooner. The\nintensity forecast is a little above guidance given such a\nprevailing favorable environment.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 12 kt.\nThe depression is moving around the periphery of a strong\nsubtropical ridge extending from Mexico westward across the\nPacific. This flow pattern is likely steer the cyclone between the\nwest and west-northwest during the next 2 to 3 days toward a\nweakness of the ridge. After that time, the ridge is forecast to\namplify and will likely force the cyclone to move with a more\nwesterly component. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous\none and continues to be in the middle of the track guidance\nenvelope. This forecast keeps the core of the cyclone well south of\nthe coast of Mexico at this time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z  9.0N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z  9.3N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 10.0N  98.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 11.4N 100.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 12.5N 102.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 14.5N 104.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  25/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  26/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 PM PDT Fri Jul 21 2017\n\nGreg is continuing to experience significant vertical shear, as the\ndeep convection is only observed in the northeastern semicircle and\nits center is on the edge of the convective overcast.  A blend of\nsubjective Dvorak estimates from SAB/TAFB, objective Dvorak from\nCIMSS, and an ATMS analysis all suggest about 45 kt maximum\nsustained winds, unchanged from the previous advisory.\n\nVertical shear analysis from CIMSS suggests substantially stronger\ntropospheric vertical shear than analyzed by either the GFS or\nECMWF global models.  The southwesterly shear appears to due to a\nvigorous upper-level trough north-northwest of Greg.  While the\nshear should subside some as the upper trough and Greg move away\nfrom each other, the atmosphere that Greg will move through should\nbecome progressively drier and more stable.  Around day 5, the\nhostile thermodynamics are expected to cause Greg to lose deep\nconvection completely and thus become a remnant low.  The official\nintensity forecast  - showing little to no intensification before a\ngradual decay starting around day 3 - is based upon the HCCA\ncorrected consensus technique and is slightly lower than that of the\nprevious advisory.\n\nGreg is moving toward the west at about 12 kt, as it is moving\nalong the southern periphery of a subtropical ridge.  A gradual\nbend toward the west-northwest is anticipated around day 4 and 5,\nas a weakening Greg should be advected along by the low-level\ntrades.  The model guidance is in good agreement for this scenario -\nexcept for the GFS which has a sharp turn toward the northwest.\nThis appears to be due to a stronger, deeper Greg being more\naffected by an approaching upper-level trough.  This GFS solution is\nnot, however, mirrored by most of the GEFS ensemble members which\nshow more of a west to west-northwest track.  The official track\nprediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus with\nthe GFS replaced by the GEFS ensemble mean and is nudged slightly\nsouthwest from the previous advisory.\n\nThe initial wind radii was contracted inward some based upon the\nATMS analysis from 2129Z.  The official wind radii forecast is\nclosest to the RVCN consensus approach.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z 15.1N 121.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 15.3N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.5N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 15.5N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 15.8N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  26/0000Z 17.1N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  27/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea/Ramos\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017\n\nRecent microwave images suggest that Tropical Depression Nine-E has\nformed a small inner core with good curvature of the low cloud\nlines.  However, deep convection near this feature is currently\nminimal, with most of the convection well away from the center over\nthe northwestern quadrant.  Satellite intensity estimates are in the\n25-35 kt range, and based on these and the current state of the\ncentral convection, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The\ncyclone has good outflow in all directions.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/12.  The depression is south of a\nmid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the\nnortheastern Pacific just west of the Baja California peninsula.\nThis pattern should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward\nto northwestward for the next three days or so.  After that time,\nthe ridge is forecast to strengthen a little, which should give the\ntropical cyclone a more westward motion.  The track guidance is in\ngood agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is\nsimilar to the old forecast.  This forecast, which lies just north\nof the various consensus models, keeps the core of the cyclone well\nsouth of the coast of Mexico at this time.\n\nThe environment looks very favorable for strengthening, with the\ndepression forecast to be in light vertical shear and over waters\nof 28-29C for at least the next 4 days.  Based on this, a period of\nrapid intensification seems likely, but when this will occur is not\nclear.  The intensity guidance shows generally slow strengthening\nfor the next 36 h, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is not\nunusually high through 36 h.  However, the aforementioned inner core\nsuggests that rapid intensification could begin if the convection\nconcentrates around this feature.  Given the uncertainty, the\nintensity forecast is changed little since the previous advisory,\nshowing the system becoming a hurricane just before 48 h and\ngetting to near major hurricane strength by the end of the period.\nThis forecast is above the guidance through 72 h, then is in good\nagreement with the SHIPS model.   It is possible that the current\nforecast intensities may be too high during the first 36 h and not\nhigh enough later in the forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z  9.4N  95.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z  9.7N  97.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 10.7N  99.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 11.8N 101.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 12.8N 102.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 15.0N 105.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  26/0000Z 16.5N 108.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  27/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nMicrowave imagery indicates that the center of the tropical storm\nis located to the south of the main area of deep convection.  The\ncurrent intensity estimate is kept at 45 kt, based on a Dvorak\nestimate from TAFB.  Greg is being affected by southerly\nshear associated with an upper-level low/trough located to the\nnorth-northwest, which is clearly seen in water vapor imagery.  The\nglobal dynamical guidance indicates that the trough will lift\nnorthward over the next day or two, resulting in a decrease of\nshear.  However, Greg is expected to reach slightly cooler waters\nand begin to ingest drier mid-level air within a couple of days.\nTherefore, only slight strengthening is anticipated, followed by\nweakening later in the forecast period.  By the end of the period,\nthe hostile environment should result in the system degenerating\ninto a remnant low.  The official forecast is near or a little above\nthe intensity model consensus.\n\nGreg is moving westward or 275/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the\nnorth of the tropical cyclone is likely to maintain the westward\nmotion for the next several days.  In 4-5 days the ridge is\npredicted to weaken somewhat, and this should result in a slowing\nof the forward speed along with a turn toward the right.  The\nofficial track forecast is close to the simple and corrected\ndynamical consensus tracks and is not too different from its\npredecessor.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z 15.2N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 15.3N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 15.4N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 15.3N 129.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/0600Z 15.2N 131.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/0600Z 15.7N 134.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  26/0600Z 17.2N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n400 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nThe satellite appearance of the depression hasn't changed much\nduring the past 6 hours, and the intensity remains 30 kt based on\nan average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS\nADT.  Most of the convection is still removed from the center and\nlimited to the western half of the circulation.  That said, the\nintensity forecast thinking hasn't changed, and the environment is\nstill expected to support strengthening throughout the forecast\nperiod.  Given the current structure of the storm, significant\nintensification doesn't seem imminent.  However, looking at the\nmedium-term, the SHIPS-RII probability of an increase of 65 kt in 72\nhours is up to 44 percent.  The new intensity forecast is a little\nlower than the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but similar\nafter that. The forecast remains above all of the guidance for the\nfirst two days, and near the SHIPS model after that.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from\nthe Gulf of Mexico to western Mexico is the primary steering\nfeature for next few days, and the models are in good agreement on\na steady northwestward track beginning later today.  All of the\nglobal models depict the ridge strengthening after about 72 h, but\nthe extent to which the cyclone responds by turning toward the west\nvaries somewhat.  In the models with a stronger vortex, most notably\nthe GFS, a weak upper-level low prevents the storm from turning too\nsharply toward the west.  A weaker modeled storm, as depicted in the\nUKMET and HWRF would turn almost due west.  Overall, the guidance\nhas shifted a little to the west for this advisory, so the forecast\nhas been nudged in that direction.  It now lies on the right side of\nthe envelope, favoring the stronger solution of the GFS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z  9.6N  96.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 10.1N  98.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 11.1N 100.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 12.1N 101.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  24/0600Z 13.2N 103.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  25/0600Z 15.1N 106.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  26/0600Z 16.8N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 AM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nA large and strong burst of convection has formed on the northern\nside of the center of Greg during the past several hours.  However,\nmicrowave data suggest the center remains mostly exposed on the\nsouthern side of the thunderstorm activity.  Satellite intensity\nestimates range between 35-55 kt, so the initial wind speed will be\nkept at 45 kt.\n\nWhile shear is forecast to decrease near Greg over the next 36\nhours as a trough lifts out, SSTs are also likely to decrease\nalong with more dry air in the environment of the cyclone.  The net\nresult of these competing factors is that little significant\nintensity change is expected over the next couple of days.  After\nthat, most of the models increase the shear again while the storm\nmoves over colder waters.  Thus Greg should weaken at long range,\nand will likely be a remnant low by day 5.  Little change was made\nto the previous NHC forecast, which is near or slightly higher than\nthe model consensus.\n\nGreg is moving westward or 270/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the\nnorth of the tropical cyclone is likely to maintain the westward\nmotion for the next couple of days.  In 3-5 days the ridge is\npredicted to weaken somewhat, and this should result Greg slowing\ndown and turning west-northwestward.  There has been little change\nto the model tracks, with the ECMWF/UKMET on the left side of the\nguidance, and the GFS-based guidance on the right side.  The\nGFS-based guidance has been trending westward, so it makes some\nsense to stay on the left side of the consensus.  The latest NHC\nforecast is very close to the previous forecast, leaning a little\nheavier on the ECMWF, UKMET, their ensembles, and the HFIP-corrected\nconsensus model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 15.1N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.1N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 15.0N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 14.9N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z 15.1N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  25/1200Z 16.0N 134.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  26/1200Z 17.3N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  27/1200Z 18.0N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nThe depression has failed to strengthen as previously indicated, and\nboth the circulation and the convection are not currently as\norganized as it seemed to be 24 hours ago when advisories were\ninitiated. Microwave data reveal that the center appears to be\nlocated on the south side of the main convection, and the low and\nmid-level centers are not aligned. Based on Dvorak numbers, the\nmaximum winds are estimated at 30 kt. Having said that, the\ndepression is expected to move through a very favorable moist\nenvironment of low shear during the next several days, and the ocean\nis plenty warm.  With these conditions present, the NHC forecast\ninsists on strengthening and still anticipates that the depression\nwill become a hurricane in about 48 hours. Guidance is a little bit\nless aggressive than earlier but still forecasts intensification.\n\nWith the low-level center difficult to locate, the initial motion\nhas become uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest\nor 290 degrees at 10 kt. A persistent subtropical ridge extending\nfrom Mexico westward across the Pacific will keep steering the\ncyclone on the same general track for the next five days. This is\nthe solution provided by track guidance which, in fact, is tightly\nclustered. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope,\nand is not very different from the previous official forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 10.0N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 10.5N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 11.6N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 12.5N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z 13.5N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  25/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  26/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102014\n900 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nI thought there was no more room for another cyclone in the eastern\nPacific basin, but nature managed to produce another one. The\ndisturbance that NHC has been monitoring for several days has\nfinally developed enough circulation and convection to be classified\nas a tropical depression, the sixth cyclone that has formed in the\nmonth of July.\n\nThe center is located on the northern edge of a circular mass of\ndeep convection and, based of an average of Dvorak numbers, it is\nbeing assigned an initial intensity of 30 kt.  The depression is in\nbetween TS Greg and TD 9-E, and the environment is not ideal for\nstrengthening. However, most of the global models show a decrease\nof the shear in the next few days, and this will allow some\nintensification.\n\nThe depression is trapped south of a subtropical ridge and is moving\ntoward the west at about 6 kt.  The nose of the ridge is forecast to\namplify westward, and this flow pattern will likely force the\ncyclone on a slow west and then west-southwest track during the next\nfive days. Most of the guidance agree with this solution, but one\nmust use caution since there could be some interaction with Tropical\nDepression Nine-E which increases the forecast uncertainty.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 14.7N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 14.8N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  25/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  26/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  27/1200Z 13.5N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 PM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nSimilar to the past few days, deep convection from the morning\nhours has weakened, with the center of Greg peeking out of the\ncirrus canopy on the southern side of the central dense overcast.\nAlthough the latest satellite estimates have risen a bit, the\ninitial wind speed will remain 45 kt after considering the recent\ndegradation of the cloud pattern.\n\nIt seems like dry air has been getting into the central core of\nGreg, with some outflow boundaries present in the southern\nsemicircle.  This dry air presents a problem for future\nintensification, since it would take some time to mix out of\nthe storm's circulation and additional environmental dry and\nstable air is in the forecast path.  Thus, the window for\nstrengthening may have ended, and it is becoming more likely that\nGreg will just slowly weaken as environmental conditions gradually\ndeteriorate.  None of the historically reliable guidance strengthen\nthe cyclone now, and the NHC forecast is decreased from the previous\none, consistent with the latest model consensus guidance.\n\nGreg continues moving westward or 270/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to\nthe north of the tropical cyclone is likely to maintain the westward\nmotion for the next couple of days.  In 3-5 days, the ridge is\npredicted to weaken somewhat, and this should result in Greg slowing\ndown and turning west-northwestward.  The GFS-based guidance has\nmade a large westward shift toward the ECMWF/UKMET on this cycle,\nsimilar to its overnight trend.  Thus, the NHC forecast is shifted\nwestward as well and remains near or west of the model consensus at\nlong range.\n\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 15.1N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 15.0N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 14.9N 129.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 15.0N 131.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 15.2N 133.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 17.3N 138.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 18.0N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n400 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nRecent ASCAT data confirmed that the depression has not become any\nbetter organized and that the low-level center is on the southern\nedge of the main convection. T-numbers have remain either steady or\ndecrease slightly, so the initial intensity has been kept at 30 kt\nat this time.  Despite the current lack of organization, the cyclone\nis expected to be in a very favorable environment of low shear and\nover warm waters. With these conditions, I have no option but to\nforecast strengthening. This process will probably be slow during\nthe next day or so, but after that time, the cyclone should\nstrengthen at a faster pace and become a hurricane. This follows the\nlatest intensity guidance which suggest that the most rapid increase\nin the winds should occur beyond 48 hours.\n\nThe depression appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or\n290 degrees at 11 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and\nglobal models continue to forecast a strong ridge extending from\nMexico westward across the Pacific. This flow pattern will keep the\ncyclone on the same general west-northwestward track for the next 5\ndays, as indicated by the general guidance. This solution is not\ndifferent from the previous NHC track forecasts which have been\nkeeping the core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 10.5N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 11.2N 100.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 12.2N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 13.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 13.7N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 15.0N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n300 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the center of the depression remains\nsheared, with the complex center on the northeast side of the main\nconvective mass.  Cirrus cloud blowoff from the band in the\nnorthwestward quadrant of the cyclone is pretty clearly moving\nright into the center, causing the asymmetric appearance.\nSatellite intensity estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind\nspeed will stay at 30 kt.\n\nThe upper-level environment is not ideal for strengthening with a\ntrough located north of the cyclone.  Most of the models lift the\ntrough northward during the next couple of days, which generally\ncauses lighter shear.  However, in a few days, increasing easterly\nshear from the outflow of TD Nine-E is expected to arrest the\nstrengthening of the cyclone.  Model guidance, however, is rather\ndivergent, with the statistical-based tools showing little\nstrengthening, while the regional hurricane models all turn the\ndepression into a significant hurricane in a few days.  Given that\nthis forecast also depends on how much Nine-E strengthens and a\nquestionable environment, the regional hurricane models look\noverdone, so the official forecast will stay on the conservative\nside of the guidance.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the west at about 6 kt.  A ridge\nbetween the depression and TS Greg is forecast to steer Ten-E to the\nwest or west-southwest over the next several days.  Guidance is not\nin great agreement, with the GFS and ECMWF showing very different\nsolutions.  The GFS has the strongest ridge, which causes the\ndepression to take a sharper turn to the southwest, while the ECMWF\nis north of all of the other guidance with a weaker ridge and more\nof an interaction with TD Nine-E.  Despite these significant\ndifferences, the model consensus remains close to the previous NHC\nforecast, so little change is made to the latest NHC track\nprediction.  Given the potential binary track interaction, there is\na lot of uncertainty at long range with the track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 14.4N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 14.5N 115.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 14.5N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 14.5N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 PM PDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nGreg's cloud pattern remains unimpressive, with a rather\ndisorganized area of convection found to the west and northwest of\nthe low-level center. The latest Dvorak estimates are about the same\nas before, so the initial intensity estimate remains 45 kt.\n\nLittle change in strength is expected during the first 24 hours, as\nthe near-storm environment is not expected to change much during\nthat time. Afterward, however, the usually lethal combination of\ncooling SSTs and a drying low- to mid-level atmosphere, along with\nincreasing shear at days 4-5, should bring about the gradual demise\nof Greg. Remnant low status is now forecast by 96 hours, and the new\nNHC intensity forecast is in line with the bulk of the latest\nguidance.\n\nA timely SSMIS pass from 23/0005Z was helpful in establishing the\ninitial position of Greg, which is a little south and west of\nprevious estimates. Based on this, the initial motion estimate is\n265/11, as Greg continues moving to the south of an expansive low-\nto mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific. This ridge will begin\nto weaken in 48-72 hours, which should result in Greg turning a\nlittle more poleward during that time with a slight decrease in\nforward speed. By the end of the period, the shallow remnants of\nGreg should turn westward in the low-level trade wind flow over the\ncentral Pacific. Based on the initial position and the trend in the\nlatest guidance, the new NHC track forecast is faster and has been\nadjusted to the left of the previous forecast, especially at days 3\nthrough 5. The NHC prediction is close to the latest consensus aids\nthrough day 3, but lies a bit to the right of those aids at days 4\nand 5 out of respect to continuity.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 14.9N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 14.9N 128.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.8N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 15.2N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 16.3N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/0000Z 17.5N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nA persistent area of convection has developed near and over the\ncenter of the depression since the last advisory.  In addition, a\nrecent SSMI/S overpass shows the low- to mid-level convective\nbanding has become better defined.  Based on this, the initial\nintensity is increased to 35 kt, the upper end of the satellite\nintensity estimates, and the depression is upgraded to Tropical\nStorm Hilary.\n\nHilary should remain in an environment of light vertical shear and\nwarm sea surface temperatures for the next 4 days, and thus it\nshould at least steadily, if not rapidly, strengthen.  After day\n4, the cyclone should move over decreasing sea surface temperatures\nand into stronger shear, and the new intensity forecast shows\nweakening at that time.  The new intensity forecast lies below that\nof the SHIPS model and the HCCA corrected consensus, and it is\npossible an upward adjustment of the forecast intensities may be\nrequired in later advisories.\n\nThe initial motion is 300/12. The main steering feature should be a\nmid-level ridge extending from Mexico westward into the Pacific,\nand this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward\nthrough the forecast period.  Near the end of the period, there is\na possibility of interaction with Tropical Depression Ten-E,\nalthough present indications in the large-scale guidance are this\nshould have a minimal impact on Hilary's track.  The new forecast\ntrack is similar to, but a little north of, the previous track, and\nit lies near the various consensus models.  The new track keeps\nthe core of the cyclone well south of the coast of Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 11.5N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 12.1N 101.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 13.0N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 13.7N 104.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 14.4N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  28/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n900 PM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017\n\nLast-light visible images indicate that the low-level center of\nTropical Depression Ten-E remains exposed just to the north of the\nmain convective mass due to the effects of 10-15 kt of northerly\nvertical wind shear.  Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from\nTAFB and SAB, so that will remain the initial intensity.\n\nThe intensity forecast is low confidence due to a large spread in\nthe guidance and the possibility of interaction with Tropical\nStorm Hilary to the east late in the forecast period.  All guidance\nagrees that northerly shear produced by a nearby upper-level trough\nshould continue for the next 36 h, and based on this, the forecast\nis for slow strengthening.  The models forecast a somewhat more\nfavorable environment from 36-72 h, but the guidance becomes very\ndivergent on how this will affect the cyclone.  By 72 hr, the LGEM\nforecasts a 35 kt intensity, the HWRF an 85 kt intensity, and\nseveral other reliable models in between those extremes.  After 72\nhr, the cyclone may feel the impact of outflow from Hilary, which\nwould likely stop any strengthening.  The new intensity forecast is\nonly slightly changed from the previous forecast, and it lies near\nthe center of a well spread out guidance envelope.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/7.  A ridge between the depression and\nTropical Storm Greg to the west is forecast to steer Ten-E to the\nwest or west-southwest over the next several days.  Near the end of\nthe forecast period, the track could be affected by interaction with\nHilary, although only the GFS shows a major impact before 120 h and\nthus it is to the southeast of the other models.  The new forecast\ntrack is little changed from the previous track and uses the premise\nthat the main track impact from the aforementioned interaction will\nbe after 120 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 14.6N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 14.6N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.6N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 14.7N 118.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 14.0N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  28/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nThe center of Greg has been difficult to locate tonight, but earlier\nmicrowave data and an ASCAT pass that just barely caught the center\nindicate that the tropical storm remains sheared.  At the time of\nthose passes, the center was located just southeast of the main\nconvective mass and there is no reason to believe that has changed.\nAlthough the ASCAT pass missed the western portion of the\ncirculation, it still showed winds of 38 kt in the northeast\nquadrant.  Assuming the winds are a little higher within the\nconvection, the initial intensity has been held at 45 kt.\n\nAlthough Greg is moving away from an upper-level low and the worst\nof the vertical shear, the near-storm environment is still fairly\ndry, as diagnosed in the GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS.  This should\nbe enough to prevent the cyclone from strengthening, and very\ngradual weakening is supported by most of the guidance.  After\nabout 48 hours, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should result in\nadditional weakening, and Greg is forecast to become a remnant low\nby day 4.  The new intensity forecast is very similar to the\nprevious advisory.\n\nThe aforementioned ASCAT pass suggested that the center of Greg is a\nlittle farther south than previously estimated, and the track\nforecast has been adjusted accordingly.  Aside from that, little\nchange has been made and the official forecast is near the middle\nof the tightly clustered guidance.  All of the global models still\nshow Greg moving along the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level\nridge for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the\nnorthwest as the ridge weakens slightly.  By the end of the\nforecast period a turn back to the west as a remnant low is\nexpected, when Greg becomes steered primarily by low-level trade\nwinds.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 14.7N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 14.6N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 14.6N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 14.8N 133.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 15.2N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 16.1N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 16.9N 140.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/0600Z 17.0N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n400 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of Hilary is gradually becoming better organized,\nwith some convective banding features beginning to develop.  The\nupper-level outflow is well defined over all but the southeastern\nsemicircle of the circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB\nremain at 2.5 so the current intensity is held at 35 kt.  This is\nalso consistent with ASCAT data from a few hours ago.  The\natmospheric and oceanic environment should be quite favorable for\nintensification during the next few days.  The SHIPS guidance\nindicates that the vertical shear should remain below 10 kt\nthroughout the forecast period, and the global models show a large\nupper-level anticyclone over Hilary through 4-5 days.  Late in the\nperiod Hilary is expected to move over cooler SSTs, and this should\nhalt the intensification process.  The official intensity forecast\nshows the system approaching major hurricane status in 72 hours\nand some of the guidance, including the corrected consensus models,\nsuggest that this could be conservative.\n\nOvernight microwave data indicate a bit of a jump to the\nwest-northwest, perhaps as a result of reformation of the center as\nopposed to large-scale motion.  The initial motion estimate is\n300/13 kt.  A large mid-level anticyclone centered over the\nsouthwestern United States or northwestern Mexico should maintain\nthe west-northwestward heading throughout the forecast period.  The\ntrack model guidance is in agreement on a decrease in forward speed,\nand the official forecast shows this as well.  Later in the period,\nthere is a possibility of some binary interaction with Tropical\nStorm Irwin currently located some 800 n mi to the west. This, along\nwith a substantial spread in the track models at 4-5 days, adds some\nuncertainty to the forecast.  In any event, the official track\nforecast is not far from the latest model consensus, and keeps the\nsystem well offshore of the coast of Mexico.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 12.5N 101.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 13.1N 102.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 13.9N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 14.7N 105.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 15.5N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  28/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nAn ASCAT-B overpass at 0516 UTC showed several vectors of 32-33 kt\nwinds and a max value of 34 kt in the northeast quadrant of the\ntropical cyclone.  Based on that data, the system has been named\nTropical Storm Irwin.  Irwin is the fifth system to be named in the\neastern North Pacific so far in July.\n\nAlthough the system has been upgraded based on the ASCAT data, the\nstructure has not improved.  Shortwave-IR imagery shows that the\nlow-level center is clearly exposed to the northwest of the deep\nconvection, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have\nnot increased.  The global models suggest that the shear should\ndecrease quite a bit after about 12 to 24 hours, which should allow\nfor some intensification.  The regional dynamical models HWRF and\nCOAMPS-TC depict Irwin quickly recovering from its current sheared\nstate and intensifying to a category 2 or 3 hurricane.  On the other\nhand, the statistical models still only show modest strengthening,\nand keep Irwin below hurricane strength.  As a course of least\nregret, the intensity forecast splits these two scenarios, but\nslightly favors the lower statistical guidance since the dynamical\nmodels may show the structure of Irwin recovering from the current\nshear too quickly.  Near the end of the forecast period, Irwin is\nexpected to encounter a higher shear environment, due in part to\noutflow from Hilary to the east, so the forecast depicts gradual\nweakening.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/6 kt.  Irwin continues to be steered by a\nlow- to mid-level ridge to the northwest.  Although no significant\nchanges have been made to the track forecast, confidence is still\nsomewhat low since there is a fair amount of speed-spread in the\nmodels.  The GFS remains an outlier in being the only model that\nshows substantial binary interaction with Hilary, and is thus the\nfarthest east, though the 00 UTC ECMWF is also a little slower\nthan before.  The official forecast is a little slower at the end of\nforecast period than the previous advisory, but still assumes that\nany significant track deviation due to interactions with Hilary\nwill occur beyond 120 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 14.7N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 14.8N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 14.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 15.0N 118.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 14.7N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  28/0600Z 14.0N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nGreg's convective pattern is looking a little better this morning,\nwith two distinct bursts of thunderstorm activity located near and\nto the west of the center.  The latest Dvorak intensity estimates\nrange from T2.0 to T3.0, and the initial intensity will remain 45\nkt since the cyclone's structure has improved somewhat during the\npast several hours.\n\nVertical shear over Greg is less than 10 kt at the moment, but the\ncyclone's biggest challenge is dry air in the surrounding\nenvironment.  GOES-16 lower-level water vapor imagery shows that\nGreg is running into a very dry low- to mid-level air mass to its\nwest, and this environment will likely curtail strengthening.  Greg\nis forecast to maintain its intensity for another 24 hours,\nfollowed by gradual weakening due to the dry air, increasing shear,\nand cooler sea surface temperatures after 48 hours.  This scenario\nis captured by all of the intensity guidance, and Greg is likely to\ndegenerate into a remnant low by 96 hours.\n\nA little more southward adjustment of the center location was needed\nbased on additional ASCAT and other microwave data received since\nthe last advisory.  Still, low- to mid-level ridging to the north\nof Greg is expected to maintain a westward motion through 36 hours.\nThe ridge is forecast to weaken after 36 hours, which should allow\nthe cyclone to gain a little more latitude on days 2 through 4.\nThe low-level trade winds are then expected to push the remnant low\nwest-southwestward by day 5.  Except for a southward adjustment in\nthe track forecast to account for the initial position, the model\nguidance is in good agreement, and no other significant changes\nwere required from the previous advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 14.3N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 14.3N 130.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 14.5N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 14.7N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 15.0N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 16.1N 138.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/1200Z 15.9N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nVisible imagery indicates that Hilary is becoming better organized.\nA small central dense overcast has formed, along with a large curved\nband in the northern semicircle of the cyclone. The initial wind\nspeed is set to 40 kt, a blend of the latest TAFB/SAB estimates.\nHilary could be on the verge of starting its long-anticipated\nsignificant strengthening period.  A 1059 UTC SSMIS microwave pass\nindicates more inner-core structure with the storm, which suggests\nthat Hilary will be able to take advantage of the nearby conducive\natmospheric and oceanic conditions.  The SHIPS guidance is also\nindicating relatively high chances of rapid intensification, roughly\na 50/50 chance during the next 48 hours. Given the factors\nabove, the NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, best in\nline with a blend of the HWRF/DSHIP/HFIP corrected consensus\nmodels.  An increase in northerly shear, possibly enhanced by\noutflow from TS Irwin, should cause some weakening late in the\nperiod, along with more marginal SSTs.\n\nHilary is moving slower now to the west-northwest at about 9 kt. A\nridge over Mexico should steer Hilary in that general direction for\nthe next several days, at various speeds due to the strength of the\nridge.  Later in the period, there is a possibility of some binary\ninteraction with Irwin, which adds some uncertainty to the forecast.\nOverall, there hasn't been a lot of change to the model guidance,\nand the latest NHC track prediction stays relatively close to the\nprevious forecast and the consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 12.7N 102.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 13.1N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 13.8N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 14.6N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 15.4N 107.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 17.6N 115.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  28/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nIrwin's center is exposed to the north and west of its associated\ndeep convection due to about 15 kt of northerly shear.  Subjective\nand objective Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T2.5, so\n35 kt will remain the initial intensity for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion remains westward at 280/6 kt, with Irwin located\nsouth of a weak low-level ridge and almost midway between Tropical\nStorms Greg and Hilary.  This orientation should cause Irwin to\nmaintain a westward, albeit much slower, motion during the next\nseveral days.  However, once Greg degenerates into a remnant low in\nabout 4 days, a binary interaction between a stronger Irwin and\nHilary is more likely to occur, which could force Irwin to turn\nwest-southwestward at the end of the forecast period.  There is\nsome notable spread in the guidance, highlighted by the GFS and its\nensemble mean on the southern end of the guidance envelope, and the\nECMWF and its ensemble mean on the northern edge.  The HWRF is also\nnorth of most models by the end of the forecast period, presumably\nbecause it is not capturing any interaction between Irwin and\nHilary.  The updated NHC forecast is nudged a little south on this\nadvisory, and it is south of the model consensus after day 3 to\naccount for an Irwin-Hilary track interaction.\n\nThe shear over Irwin is expected to decrease within the next 12-24\nhours, which should allow the cyclone to begin a sustained period\nof strengthening.  Sea surface temperatures will be between 27-28\ndegrees Celsius, and the ambient environment appears sufficiently\nmoist to foster intensification.  The NHC intensity forecast favors\na blend of the ICON intensity consensus, HCCA, and the Florida\nState Superensemble, showing Irwin reaching hurricane intensity in\nabout 48 hours.  This forecast is not too different from the\nprevious advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 15.0N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 15.0N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 15.0N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 15.0N 118.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 15.0N 119.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 14.8N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 14.2N 123.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  28/1200Z 14.0N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nGreg has had a large burst of deep convection during the past\nseveral hours, although cloud tops have begun to warm just\nrecently.  A 1748 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 40 kt,\nbut subjective and objective Dvorak estimates have all increased to\nT3.0/45 kt.  Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 45 kt,\nwith the assumption that the resolution of the scatterometer missed\nhigher winds.\n\nGreg is moving westward, or 270/12 kt, to the southeast of a low-\nto mid-level anticyclone centered northeast of Hawaii.  Although\nthe ridging is not expected to weaken, it is forecast to expand and\nshift westward, which could allow Greg to turn west-northwestward\nin about 36 hours.  A turn back toward the west is expected by day 4\nwhen it becomes a remnant low and is steered by the low-level trade\nwinds.  The track models have moved northward on this cycle,\nleaving the previous official forecast along the southern edge of\nthe guidance envelope.  This necessitated that the new NHC forecast\nbe nudged northward as well, but it is still south of the TVCN\nmulti-model consensus for at least the first 48 hours.\n\nThe thermodynamic environment appears to be the limiting factor on\nGreg's intensity, since the vertical shear is expected to remain\nlow for the next 48 hours.  Visible satellite imagery shows a large,\nstable stratocumulus field out ahead of the cyclone, and\nlower-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 shows a lot of\nmid-level dry air.  Therefore, Greg is likely to only maintain its\nintensity for the next 24 hours and then gradually weaken due to\nthe dry air, increasing shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures.\nNo significant changes were required to the NHC intensity forecast,\nand Greg is still expected to degenerate into a remnant low on day\n4.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 14.4N 130.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 131.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 14.8N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 15.2N 135.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 15.9N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 17.1N 139.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 17.1N 142.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/1800Z 16.3N 145.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n400 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nHilary continues to become better organized on the latest satellite\nimages, with a small central core and a hint of an eye dimple trying\nto form in the visible channel.  A blend of satellite estimates\nsupported around 45 kt at 18Z, but since the satellite presentation\nhas continued to improve, the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt.\n\nThe storm is forecast to be within a low shear, warm water, and high\nmoisture environment for at least the next couple of days.   The\nSHIPS guidance responds to these conditions by showing a 55-percent\nchance of a 55-kt increase in winds during the next 48 hours.  The\nfavorable conditions above, including the small inner core, strongly\npoints to Hilary rapidly intensifying during that time.  Thus, the\nlatest NHC forecast is increased from the previous one, showing\nrapid intensification, and ends up above the model consensus, but\nnot as high as the HFIP corrected consensus or HWRF models.  Late in\nthe period, an increase in northerly shear, possibly enhanced by\noutflow from TS Irwin, along with more marginal SSTs should cause\nsome weakening late in the period.\n\nHilary is moving slower now toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt.\nA ridge over Mexico should steer Hilary in that general direction\nfor the next several days, with some increase in speed by 48 hours\nas the ridge strengthens slightly.  Late in the period, there is a\npossibility of some binary interaction with Irwin, which adds some\nuncertainty to the track forecast.  While some of the model guidance\nhas jumped around during the past 6 hours, the consensus aids are\nvery close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant change\nhas been made to the latest NHC prediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 13.2N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 13.6N 103.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 14.3N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 15.0N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 15.8N 108.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  28/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nDeep convection has covered up Irwin's center since the last\nadvisory, a sign that the shear affecting the system continues to\ndiminish.  Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to T3.0/45 kt\nfrom TAFB and SAB, but objective numbers are still at T2.5/35 kt.\nBased on these estimates, and a 1748 UTC ASCAT-B pass, the initial\nintensity is raised to 40 kt.\n\nIrwin is moving westward, or 270/7 kt, between Tropical Storms Greg\nand Hilary and to the south of a weak low- to mid-level ridge\nextending west of the Baja California peninsula.  Since the ridge\nis expected to remain weak, Irwin is forecast to move only slowly\nwestward through 48 hours.  After that time, its motion is likely\nto become increasingly influenced by Hilary, with the two beginning\nsome degree of a binary interaction.  The track guidance now\nindicates that Irwin will turn west-southwestward on days 3 and 4,\nand then possibly turn back to the northeast around Hilary's\nsouthern side on day 5.  With a shift in the overall guidance\nenvelope, the new NHC track forecast has been shifted southward\ntoward HCCA and the TVCN multi-model consensus, and it also now\nshows Irwin stalling or drifting northward on day 5.\n\nIrwin is located over warm sea surface temperatures and in a\nrelatively moist environment, and the northerly shear affecting the\ncyclone should continue to decrease over the next day or so.\nTherefore, additional gradual strengthening is anticipated, and\nIrwin has the possibility of reaching hurricane strength in about\n48 hours.  After that time, Hilary (possibly as a major hurricane)\nwill be getting closer to Irwin, and its upper-level outflow could\ncause stronger shear to develop over Irwin.  The intensity guidance\nhas responded to this possibility by showing more pronounced\nweakening after 48 hours, and the new NHC intensity forecast now\nshows Irwin holding a steady intensity as a tropical storm on days 3\nthrough 5.  This forecast remains closest to HCCA and the ICON\nintensity consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 14.9N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 14.8N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 14.7N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 14.6N 118.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 14.5N 119.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 14.0N 122.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  28/1800Z 14.0N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nGreg has changed little since the previous advisory, with the\ncyclone still producing intermittent bursts of deep convection near\nthe center. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates\nremain at T3.0/45 kt, so the initial intensity will remain\nunchanged at 45 kt for this advisory.\n\nGreg's initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. No significant changes\nto the previous forecast track were required through 72 hours. Greg\nis expected to continue moving west-northwestward to westward for\nthe next 3 days while it skirts along the southern periphery of a\ndeep-layer subtropical ridge centered northeast of the Hawaiian\nIslands. The small cyclone is forecast to weaken to a remnant low\naround 72 hours, with the shallow system being forced\nwest-southwestward by brisk northeasterly tradewind flow. The new\nNHC forecast track closely follows the TVCN consensus model.\n\nLittle change in strength is expected for the next 24 hours or so.\nGradual weakening is expected thereafter due to drier and more\nstable air getting entrained into the cyclone, followed by\nincreasing vertical wind shear. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is\nexpected to exceed 25-30 kt, which should result in Greg\ndegenerating into a remnant low. The new intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity\nconsensus model ICON and IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.4N 131.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.6N 132.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 15.0N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 16.4N 137.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 17.0N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/0000Z 16.9N 143.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/0000Z 16.1N 146.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nHilary has continued to become better organized with a curved\nconvective band now wrapping nearly all the way around the\nlow-level center, and a banding eye of about 10 n mi in diameter\nevident in recent SSMI/S microwave satellite data. The intensity\nestimate was 55 kt by TAFB at 0000Z, but since the overall\nconvective and inner-core patterns have improved during the past few\nhours, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Hilary is\nexpected to move west-northwestward along the southern periphery of\na deep-layer ridge to its north for the next several days, with a\nslight increase in forward speed expected in about 48 hours or so.\nThe new model guidance is tightly packed around the previous\nNHC advisory track through 96 h, so the new forecast track is just\nan update of the previous one, and closely follows the HCCA and\nTVCN models.\n\nGiven the improving inner-core structure, coupled with very low\nvertical shear values and a moist unstable environment, continued\nrapid intensification appears likely for the next 36-48 hours while\nthe small cyclone remains over SSTs greater than 28C. By 72 hours,\nSSTs cool to near 27C and the upper-ocean heat content decreases to\nless than 10 units, suggesting that cold upwelling will probably\nbegin around that time. The new intensity forecast follows the\nprevious advisory by showing rapid strengthening of about 15 kt\nevery 12 hours for the next 36 hours, followed by a slightly slower\nrate of strengthening since an eyewall replacement cycle could begin\nin the 36-48 h period. After that, increasing shear and cooler\nwater temperatures should induce gradual weakening. The official\nintensity forecast is similar to the corrected-consensus model HCCA,\nwhich brings Hilary to a 116-kt, category-4 hurricane in 48 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 13.6N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 14.7N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 15.4N 107.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 16.1N 109.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 17.2N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 18.3N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 19.2N 120.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017\n\nIrwin is gradually gaining strength.  Deep convection has increased\nover the center during the past several hours, and the cloud pattern\nnow consists of a central dense overcast with fragmented curved\nbands over the southern portion of the circulation.  The Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB were both 3.0/45 kt, and the\ninitial wind speed is increased to that value.  This intensity\nestimate is also in agreement with an ASCAT-A pass from around 1800\nUTC that showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range.\n\nIrwin is moving westward at 7 kt to the south of a relatively weak\nlow- to mid-level ridge.  This ridge is expected to guide Irwin\nslowly westward during the next few days.  After that time,\nthe forecast track becomes much more uncertain as the path of Irwin\ndepends upon the degree of interaction it has with Hilary to its\neast.  The global models all show Irwin slowing down significantly\nin a few days and then moving north or northeast as it becomes\nembedded in the circulation of Hilary.  Conversely, the hurricane\nregional models HWRF, HMON, and COAMPS-TC show Irwin continuing\ngenerally westward. The NHC track forecast has been shifted a little\nto the north and west at days 4 and 5, but continues to lie to the\neast of the consensus aids favoring the global model solutions.\n\nThe tropical storm is located in an environment of moderate shear,\nrelatively moist conditions, and over 28 degree C water.  These\nconditions are expected to change little during the next couple of\ndays, and should allow for gradual intensification.  Beyond that\ntime, an increase in wind shear associated with the outflow of\nHilary would likely cause Irwin to weaken some.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is a little higher than the previous one, trending closer\nto the latest consensus models HCCA and IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.9N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.8N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 14.8N 118.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 14.8N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 14.7N 120.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 14.0N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nASCAT passes at 0542 and 0636 UTC suggest that Greg has weakened a\nlittle.  The highest wind vector in either pass was 36 kt in the\nnortheast quadrant, and no winds exceeding 32 kt were observed in\nany other quadrants.  Based on the ASCAT data, and sampling\nconsiderations, the intensity has been decreased to 40 kt.\n\nThe ASCAT passes were very helpful in locating the center of Greg\nand the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt.  No significant change\nhas been made to the NHC track forecast.  There remains fair\nagreement between the models that Greg will continue west-northwest\nor northwestward, steered by an extension of a mid-layer ridge\ncentered to the northwest.  Once the tropical storm weakens to a\nremnant low, the low-level flow should turn the remnant circulation\nback toward the west or west-southwest until it dissipates.\n\nGreg is not expected to recover from the dry air that is\ncontributing to its current weakening trend.  The vertical shear is\nexpected to increase as well in about 24-36 hours, which should\ncause further weakening.  The new forecast is a little lower than\nthe previous one, mainly to account for the lower initial\nintensity.  A few models, especially the GFS, suggest that Greg\ncould open into a trough within the 5-day forecast period, but this\nisn't supported by the ECMWF, UKMET, or HWRF.  Out of respect for\nthose models, the forecast currently calls for Greg to remain a\nclosed circulation throughout the forecast period, but it would not\nbe surprising if it dissipated by day 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 14.4N 132.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 14.8N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 15.4N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 16.9N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 17.4N 140.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  28/0600Z 17.0N 144.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nHilary's overall cloud pattern continues to become better organized,\nalthough inner-core convection is still fluctuating somewhat.\nThere is well-defined upper-level outflow, particularly over the\nnorthwest and northeast quadrants of the circulation.  Dvorak\nT-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are now 4.0, which supports\nupgrading the system to the fourth hurricane of the 2017 eastern\nNorth Pacific season.  Hilary is expected to continue traversing\na warm ocean with weak vertical shear for the next couple of days,\nwhich favors continued strengthening.  Rapid intensification is a\ndistinct possibility, since the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index\n(RII) shows a 60 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity\nduring the next 24 hours.  The NHC forecast is in line with the\nRII guidance, and is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus\nintensity forecast through 72 hours, and a little below it\nthereafter when SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to cool below\n26 deg C.\n\nA west-northwestward motion continues, near 300/7 kt.  The flow on\nthe southern periphery of a large 500 mb ridge that extends westward\nfrom the southwestern United States should be the main steering\nmechanism for the next several days.  A slight strengthening of the\nflow should lead to some increase in the forward speed of Hilary\nover the next few days.  There is still the possibility of some\nbinary interaction with Tropical Storm Irwin to the west, but for\nnow this interaction is not expected to be very significant within\nthe forecast period.  The official track forecast is similar to the\nprevious one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical\nmodel consensus predictions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 14.0N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nThe convective structure of Irwin has improved quite a bit this\nevening.  A recent AMSU microwave pass at 0541 UTC suggests that\ndeep convection is wrapping nearly all the way around a developing\nmid-level eye.  It isn't yet clear if this feature is aligned with\nthe low-level center.  Current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,\nand the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0600 UTC were all 45 kt, so that value has\nbeen set as the initial intensity.\n\nDetermining the initial motion of Irwin has been tricky, since\nrecent microwave fixes of the center between 2100 UTC yesterday and\n0600 UTC today suggest that the center has barely moved during that\ntime.  It is assumed that at least some westward motion is still\noccuring, and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/5 kt.\nIn the short term, Irwin should continue slowly westward to the\nsouth of a low- to mid-level ridge.  At days 4 and 5, there remains\na fair amount of uncertainty in the degree to which Irwin's track\nwill be affected by Hurricane Hilary to the east, with the global\nmodels still generally showing more and the regional models less\ninteraction.  Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted\nslightly to the north at day 5, it assumes that only a little\ninteraction will take place, and remains south of the GFS and\nECMWF consensus.\n\nThe environment in the short-term still appears favorable for\nintensification and the guidance is a little higher for this\nadvisory.  The NHC forecast now calls for Irwin to become a\nhurricane within 24 hours.  After about 2 days, outflow from Hilary\nshould begin to reach Irwin, resulting in an increase in vertical\nshear.  The ECMWF model in particular shows a large increase in\nshear at days 3-5, and the NHC forecast therefore begins to show\ngradual weakening at that time.  The intensity forecast is near the\nHFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 14.8N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nGreg's convective structure is gradually deteriorating, likely due\nto very dry air in the surrounding atmosphere.  However, the\ninitial intensity remains 40 kt on this advisory, primarily since\nsubjective and objective final-T numbers still range between T2.0\nand T3.0.  Along with the dry environment, deep-layer vertical\nshear is expected to turn out of the west and increase in 36-48\nhours, and Greg will be moving over marginally warm waters of\naround 26 deg C.  Therefore, gradual weakening is anticipated, and\nGreg will likely be a tropical depression in about 48 hours and\nthen a remnant low by day 3.  This forecast is just an update of\nthe previous one and is very close to the ICON intensity consensus.\n\nBased on the latest center fixes, Greg's motion has been\noscillating between westward and west-northwestward, and the\n12-hour motion estimate is 280/10 kt.  A more definitive\nwest-northwestward motion is likely to begin soon and continue for\nthe next 48 hours as the ridge axis to Greg's north changes from a\nnorth-south orientation to a more east-west orientation.  After 48\nhours, the remnant low of Greg should then be steered westward and\nwest-southwestward by the lower-level trade winds.  The track\nguidance envelope shifted northeastward between 12-48 hours on this\ncycle, and as a result the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted\nin that direction during that period.  Otherwise, there are no\nsignificant changes from the previous forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 14.6N 133.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 15.1N 134.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 16.7N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 17.3N 138.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  27/1200Z 17.4N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Hilary has a small central core of\nconvection, with both the visible and infrared channels suggesting\nthat an eye is trying to form.  Microwave data also show an\nincomplete eyewall, though the system is so small that most\nsensors don't have the necessary resolution to really see the\ncenter.  The initial wind speed is set to 70 kt, a bit above the\nsatellite fixes given the recent upward organization trend.\nInterestingly, despite the hurricane having intensified about 30 kt\nin the past 24 hours, model guidance this morning really backed off\non the future strengthening of Hilary, with most guidance no\nlonger showing it becoming a major hurricane.  It is difficult to\nbelieve the new model runs because the environment seems similarly\nfavorable for at least the next day or so, with perhaps some\nincrease in northerly shear in about 48 hours. For now, the latest\nNHC forecast is reduced just a little bit beyond 24 hours, owing to\nthe possible increase in shear, but still lies at or above all of\nthe guidance.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/7.  A ridge that extends into the\neastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast to\nstrengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should\nsteer Hilary a bit faster to the west-northwest during that time.\nThe long-range forecast is a mess with the likelihood of some binary\ninteraction with TS Irwin, leading to a large model spread by day 5.\nDynamical guidance has been trending toward more interaction,\nalthough the GFS/HMON models are well off to the northeast of the\nrest of the guidance. The NHC prediction is close to the previous\none, putting a little more weight on the binary interaction\nsolutions, which results in a small westward shift of the forecast\nat long range.  Obviously this type of forecast has large\nuncertainty.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 14.1N 104.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 14.6N 105.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 15.2N 107.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 16.5N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  27/1200Z 17.7N 114.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  28/1200Z 18.7N 118.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  29/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nIrwin's structure continues to improve, with the low-level center\nembedded beneath a CDO feature that has persisted for the past\nseveral hours.  In addition, recent microwave data have revealed\nthe formation of a mid-level eye.  Dvorak satellite intensity\nestimates now range between T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt, so the\ninitial intensity is raised accordingly to 50 kt.\n\nFor once, the track forecast for a tropical cyclone is more\nchallenging and more uncertain that its intensity forecast.  Irwin\nis expected to have some binary interaction with Hurricane Hilary\nbeginning in about 3 days, but the amount of interaction is still\nhighly uncertain.  The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models all show a\nstrong Fujiwhara interaction, with Irwin swinging to the east and\nnortheast of Hilary by day 5.  The GFS shows much less interaction,\nwith Irwin staying well to the southwest of Hilary on day 5, and\nthe regional HWRF and HMON models don't even seem to know about\nHilary's existence to allow an interaction to occur.  Needless to\nsay, there is significant, higher-than-normal spread in the track\nguidance beginning in about 72 hours.  The updated NHC track\nforecast continues to show a slow westward motion through day 3,\nfollowed by an acceleration toward the northwest and north-northwest\non days 4 and 5.  At the longer ranges, this forecast is closest to\nHCCA, but future adjustments are likely due to the significant\nspread among the models and their ensemble members.\n\nSince it appears that Irwin is developing a well-defined inner\ncore, it is likely well on its way to becoming a hurricane.\nVertical shear is forecast to be low for the next 48 hours or so,\nwhile sea surface temperatures are very warm between 28-29 deg\nCelsius.  The NHC intensity forecast is generally a blend of HCCA\nand the ICON intensity consensus, bringing Irwin to hurricane\nstatus by 24 hours.  Significant strengthening beyond that\nthreshold is not anticipated at this time due to the possibility\nof increased shear from Hilary's outflow, and the NHC forecast\nshows little change in intensity between days 3 and 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 14.8N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 14.8N 117.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 15.0N 118.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 15.0N 119.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 14.9N 120.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  27/1200Z 14.4N 122.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  28/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  29/1200Z 17.0N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nEven embedded within a relatively dry and stable air mass, Greg's\ndeep convection has increased again during the day.  Dvorak CI\nnumbers remain between 35-45 kt, and recent ASCAT data showed\nmaximum winds near or a little above 35 kt.  Because convection has\nrecently increased, I see no reason to deviate from the 40 kt we've\nbeen carrying.  Despite the recent convective upswing, the\nenvironment ahead of Greg will become less conducive over the next\nday or two.  The atmosphere will continue to get a little drier, and\nvertical shear is expected to increase out of the south and west.\nIn addition, Greg will be moving toward cooler waters.  All of this\nmeans that gradual weakening is anticipated, with Greg likely to\nbecome a tropical depression in 48 hours and a remnant low by day\n3. This scenario remains close to SHIPS, HCCA, and the ICON\nintensity consensus.\n\nGreg still appears to be moving westward, or 275/10 kt, but the\nmodels insist that the cyclone will soon turn west-northwestward or\nnorthwestward due to weak ridging to its northwest and a low-level\ntrough to its northeast.  After it becomes a remnant low, Greg's\nshallower circulation should turn westward and then\nwest-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow.  The updated\nNHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close\nto the TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 14.5N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 15.1N 135.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 15.9N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 16.7N 138.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 17.3N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  27/1800Z 17.1N 142.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/1800Z 16.0N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/1800Z 15.0N 148.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n400 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nHilary continues to display a small central core with very deep\nconvective tops and lots of banding in the outer circulation.\nAlthough an eye is not apparent in visible imagery, WindSAT\nmicrowave data from earlier show that the hurricane has a distinct\neye underneath the cloud canopy.  Satellite estimates continue to\nincrease, so the initial wind speed is set to 75 kt, close to the\nlatest SAB fix.\n\nThe hurricane has been strengthening quickly during the past 24 h,\nnear the threshold of rapid intensification.  With no significant\nchanges to the favorable oceanic and atmospheric environments\nforecast, there is good reason to show a similar rate of\nstrengthening for the first 24 hours of the forecast.  After that\ntime, models are indicating an increase in northerly wind shear,\npartially associated with an enhanced anticyclonic outflow from TS\nIrwin. This might limit the peak intensity, so the wind speed\nforecast has been leveled off on day 2.  The latest model guidance\nhas come in closer to the previous official forecast, so little\nchange has been made in the new NHC intensity prediction.  Some\nweakening is likely at longer range due to cooler SSTS, entrainment\nof drier air, and binary interaction with Irwin.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/7 kt.  A ridge that extends into\nthe eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States is forecast\nto strengthen slightly over the next couple of days, which should\nsteer Hilary a little to the left and a bit faster during that time.\nThe long-range forecast is quite challenging with the threat of\nbinary interaction with Irwin, leading to widely divergent solutions\nby days 4-5.  While the GFS keeps Hilary far separated from Irwin on\nthe northeastern side of the guidance envelope, its ensemble mean is\nmuch more in the pack of the guidance, suggesting the latest GFS\nsolution is not very likely.  The UKMET and ECMWF continue to show\nrare TC binary interaction and merger scenarios which, although\nscientifically pleasing to see, lead to large errors potentially.\nOverall, the model trend toward more interaction with Irwin\ncontinues, which led to a westward shift of the latest NHC\nprediction at days 3-5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 14.5N 104.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 14.9N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 16.1N 110.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 16.6N 112.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  27/1800Z 17.7N 115.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  28/1800Z 18.7N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  29/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nIrwin has been displaying a dimple in visible satellite imagery,\nwhich appears to coincide with a mid-level eye that has been\napparent in recent microwave imagery.  However, the microwave data\nalso suggest that Irwin's circulation is tilted from south to north\nwith height, with the low-level center located south of the feature\nnoted in visible imagery.  Subjective Dvorak estimates have risen\nto T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65 kt from SAB, while the\nobjective ADT is still down around T3.1/47 kt.  Given the cyclone's\ntilted structure, I'm comfortable going down the middle and\ninitializing the intensity at 55 kt.\n\nVertical shear is currently low over Irwin and should remain so for\nthe next 24 hours or so.  This will likely allow Irwin to continue\nstrengthening, reaching hurricane status overnight.  Increased\nshear, possibly enhanced by Hilary's outflow, could begin to\nimpinge on Irwin after 24 hours, which would likely limit the\nintensification trend.  The new intensity guidance has come down a\nbit after 24 hours, and only gradual weakening is anticipated\nthrough the end of the forecast period as Irwin and Hilary\ninteract.  Irwin will also be approaching the 26 deg C SST isotherm\nin about 5 days, which will also foster some weakening.  The\nupdated NHC forecast is close to the HCCA guidance, and it's just\nslightly below the previous forecast from 36 hours and beyond.\n\nIrwin's is drifting westward with an initial motion of 280/3 kt.\nAs Irwin and Hilary's circulations get closer together over the\nnext few days, Irwin will respond by first moving slowly\nwest-southwestward on days 2 and 3, and then turning northwestward\nand accelerating behind or around the southeast side of Hilary's\ncirculation.  The regional HWRF and HMON models continue to show a\npersistent westward track that ignores Hilary's existence, while\nthe global models show varying degrees of interaction between the\ntwo cyclones.  Because of the unrealistic scenarios shown by the\nregional models, the NHC track forecast continues to lie east of\nthe multi-model consensus on days 4 and 5, and it's very close to\nHCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 15.0N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 15.2N 118.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 15.2N 119.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 15.1N 120.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 14.8N 121.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  27/1800Z 14.2N 122.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  28/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  29/1800Z 17.5N 124.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of Greg has changed little during the last\nseveral hours.  The low-level center of the storm remains covered\nup by an area of deep convection that has increased in intensity\nduring the past few hours.  The latest Dvorak classifications\nare largely unchanged from earlier, and the initial wind speed\nestimate remains 40 kt for this advisory.  This intensity estimate\nis also in fairly close agreement with the earlier scatterometer\ndata.\n\nGreg has made the expected turn to the west-northwest on the south\nside of a low- to mid-level ridge.  The models suggest that Greg\nshould move west-northwestward to northwestward during the\nnext couple of days as the ridge to the north of the system weakens\na little.  A turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected in\n2 to 3 days when Greg becomes a shallow system and is steered by the\nlow-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is a tad to the\nnorth of the previous one, trending toward the latest model\nconsensus aids.\n\nThe tropical storm is still over relatively warm 27 deg C waters\nand in a low wind shear environment.  The environment along the\nprojected path of Greg is expected to become hostile during\nthe next couple of days, with the cyclone forecast to move into a\nprogressively drier air mass and over waters cooler than 26 deg C\nbeginning in about 24 h.  In addition, a significant increase in\nnorthwesterly wind shear is expected to begin in 36 to 48 h.  These\nunfavorable conditions should cause a steady weakening trend, and\nGreg is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 h.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is identical to the previous one and in line with the bulk\nof the model guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 14.8N 134.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.4N 135.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 16.3N 137.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.1N 138.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.5N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 17.0N 143.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0000Z 15.0N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nRecent microwave satellite images indicate that Hilary has developed\na tight banding eye feature with a diameter of less than 10 nmi.\nDeep convection with cloud tops to -85C within an elongated CDO has\ncontinued to pulse since the previous advisory, likely due to some\nmodest high-level shear induced by a large convective complex\nlocated a couple hundred nmi southeast of Hilary's center. However,\nthat convective cloud mass has recently been showing signs of\nwaning, so that negative influence will likely begin to abate fairly\nsoon. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates were a consensus T4.5/77\nkt from TAFB and SAB at 0000Z. Since that time, the CDO has become\nmore distinct and NHC objective intensity estimates have been\nranging between 82-88 kt during the past 2 hours. As a result, the\nadvisory intensity has been increased to 85 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. Hilary is forecast to\nmove generally west-northwestward along the southern periphery of a\ndeep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. With the exception\nof the more northerly GFS model -- which had a similar poleward bias\nwith Fernanda -- the rest of the NHC model guidance is tightly\nclustered around the previous forecast track. As a result, only\nminor speed adjustments were made to the previous forecast track.\nAlthough some binary interaction with TS Irwin is still possible,\nHilary is expected to be the larger and more dominant circulation,\nresulting in Irwin being pulled poleward within Hilary's wake on\ndays 3-5.\n\nThe small eye and tight inner-core banding features noted in recent\nmicrowave imagery, along with large-scale low vertical wind shear\nconditions and favorable thermodynamics, argues for some rapid\nintensification to occur during the next 12-24 hours. Thereafter,\nsome adjustment of the eye and inner-core wind field is possible,\nwhich has resulted in a leveling off of Hilary's intensity forecast\nin the 24-to 48-h period. By 72 hours and beyond, the combination\nof decreasing SSTs to less than 26C along with some modest westerly\nwind shear should produce steady weakening. The official intensity\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, and follows a blend of\nthe HCCA and ECMWF intensity predictions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.0N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 16.1N 109.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 16.5N 111.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.1N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 18.1N 116.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  29/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  30/0000Z 19.9N 123.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017\n\nIrwin has been gradually strengthening throughout the day. Satellite\nimages show that deep convection has been persisting over the center\nand in fragmented curved bands, especially over the south and west\nportions of the circulation.  Microwave images indicate that the\nsystem is vertically titled from south to north, likely due to\nsoutherly shear.  The latest Dvorak CI numbers are 3.5/55 kt from\nTAFB and 4.0/65 kt from SAB.  These estimates and higher ADT values\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support increasing the\ninitial intensity to 60 kt.\n\nIrwin is crawling west-northwestward, with the initial motion\nestimated to be 285/3 kt.  A slow westward to west-northwestward\nmotion is forecast through early Tuesday as a weak mid-level ridge\nremains in place to the north of the storm.  A west-southwestward\nmotion is expected between 24 and 72 h as Hurricane Hilary\napproaches from the east.  Beyond that time, the track forecast is\nvery challenging as the models remain quite divergent with the\nspread being more than 700 n mi at day 5.  The UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS\nglobal models show Irwin rotating around the east side of the\ncirculation of Hilary and ultimately merging with that hurricane.\nThe CMC model shows some binary interaction between the tropical\ncyclones, but keeps the systems separate, and the regional hurricane\nmodels HWRF and HMON show no interaction between the systems and\ncontinue to move Irwin westward.  The NHC track forecast favors the\nglobal models and shows a slow northward motion on days 4 and 5.\nNeedless to say, the long range track forecast is of low confidence.\n\nThe environmental conditions should support some additional\nstrengthening during the next day or so, and Irwin is expected to\nbecome a hurricane tonight or on Tuesday.  Thereafter, an increase\nin vertical wind shear, associated with the outflow of Hilary, and\nslightly cooler waters along the forecast track should cause a\ngradual weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to\nthe previous one and in fair agreement with the consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.2N 118.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.3N 118.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 15.1N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 14.8N 120.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 14.5N 121.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 14.2N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  29/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  30/0000Z 18.0N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nConvection associated with Greg is currently very disorganized and\nconfined to the northwestern quadrant.  The initial intensity\nremains at 40 kt based on a blend of various satellite intensity\nestimates.  Greg is forecast to move into a drier air mass,\nencounter increasing shear, and move over decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures during the next 48-72 h, and this combination should\nresult in the system degenerating to a remnant low during this\ntime.  The new intensity forecast is changed little from the\nprevious forecast except to make the cyclone a remnant low at 48 h.\n\nThe initial motion is 295/8.  Greg should move northwestward for\nthe next day or so on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge.\nAfter that, a turn to the west and then west-southwest is expected\nwhen Greg becomes a shallow system and is steered by the low-level\ntrade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is again a little to the\nnorth of the previous forecast and lies a little to the south\nof the various consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 15.2N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 16.0N 136.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 16.9N 137.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 17.5N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 17.6N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/0600Z 15.0N 149.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n300 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nHilary's compact, symmetric, inner core continues to become better\ndefined on satellite imagery.  Microwave imagery suggests\nthat the eye is quite small, less than 10 n mi in diameter, with\nlittle evidence of vertical tilt of the vortex.  The current\nintensity estimate is now 90 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate\nfrom the NESDIS SAB.  Hilary should be in a moist air mass and over\na warm ocean for the next couple of days.  Dynamical guidance\npredicts some increase in northerly shear over the cyclone in 1- to\n2-days, but probably not enough of an increase to impede at least\nsome additional strengthening.  The official intensity forecast\ncalls for Hilary to become a major hurricane in 12 hours or so and\nreach a peak in a day or so.  This is in good agreement with the\nlatest Florida State University Superensemble (FSSE) prediction.\nLater in the forecast period, gradually cooling sea surface\ntemperatures should induce slow weakening.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt.\nA mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the southwestern\nUnited States would cause Hilary to continue on its\nwest-northwestward track for the next several days.  In a few days,\nhowever, Hilary is likely to pass close to Hurricane Irwin.  The\ncurrent thinking is that the circulation of Hilary will dominate so\nthat little influence on Hilary's track, due to binary interaction\nwith Irwin, will occur.  On the other hand, the latter tropical\ncyclone is expected to begin rotating around Hilary's circulation\nlater in the forecast period (please refer to the Forecast\nDiscussion on Irwin for additional information).  The official track\nforecast is quite close to the simple consensus TVCN, and to the\ncorrected consensus predictions, HCCA and FSSE.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 15.3N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 15.8N 108.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 16.3N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 16.8N 112.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 17.4N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  28/0600Z 18.6N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  29/0600Z 19.5N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  30/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irwin Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Irwin now wraps almost all of the\nway around the center, and there have been occasional hints of a\neye in microwave and conventional satellite imagery.  Subjective\nsatellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are just below hurricane\nstrength, while several objective estimates, including the CIMSS\nsatellite consensus, are above hurricane strength. With the attempts\nat eye formation, the initial intensity will lean toward the higher\nintensity estimates, and thus Irwin is upgraded to a hurricane.\n\nThe initial motion is a little more northward than before at 300/4.\nA slow westward motion is forecast today as a weak mid-level ridge\nremains in place to the north of the storm.  A west-southwestward\nmotion is expected between 24-72 h as Hurricane Hilary approaches\nfrom the east.  After that, Irwin is expected to undergo an binary\ninteraction with Hilary, with the most likely result for Irwin\nbeing a generally northward motion around the eastern semicircle of\nHilary.  The details of this are still uncertain, with the ECMWF\nand Canadian models merging the two cyclones before 120 h, while\nthe GFS and UKMET keep them separate until after 120 h.  The new\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 72 h.\nAfter that, it leans towards the GFS/UKMET in keeping the cyclone\nseparate and accelerating Irwin around the eastern side of Hilary.\n\nLittle change in strength is likely for the next 24 h.  After that,\nincreasing shear associated with the outflow of Hilary is likely to\ncause Irwin to weaken, although there is considerable spread in the\nguidance as to how much shear and how much weakening.  By the end\nof the forecast period, cooler water along the forecast track and\nproximity to Hilary should cause additional weakening.  The new\nforecast track is a slight adjustment of the previous track.  An\nalternative intensity scenario is that Irwin dissipates as it is\nabsorbed by Hilary before 120 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 15.5N 118.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 15.3N 119.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 15.0N 120.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 14.6N 121.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 14.3N 122.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  28/0600Z 14.0N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  29/0600Z 16.0N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  30/0600Z 20.0N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nGreg's convective pattern continues to deteriorate, and all of the\nthunderstorm activity appears limited to the west and northwest of\nthe low-level center.  Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased, and\nit is assumed that Greg has weakened to a 35-kt tropical storm.\nSoutherly shear is increasing over Greg, and it is expected\nincrease further to around 30-35 kt and turn out of the northwest\nin about 48 hours.  In addition, the low- to mid-level environment\ncontinues to get drier, and Greg is moving toward cooler waters.\nAll of this means that additional weakening is anticipated, and Greg\nis likely to degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours.  The\nremnant low will likely persist through the remainder of the\nforecast period.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 295/9 kt.  A low- to\nmid-level trough located north and northeast of Greg appears to be\nallowing the cyclone to gain latitude at the moment.  However, as\nGreg continues to weaken, it is likely to turn west and\nwest-southwest as it becomes steered by the low-level trade winds.\nAlthough there is some spread in the track guidance during the\nremnant low stage, especially regarding the system's forward speed,\nthe NHC track forecast remains in the middle of the guidance\nenvelope, nearest HCCA and the various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 15.4N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 16.3N 137.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 17.1N 139.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 17.5N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 17.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1200Z 16.8N 144.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1200Z 16.0N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1200Z 15.0N 150.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n900 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nSatellite imagery shows that deep, but somewhat asymmetric,\nconvection continues in the inner core of Hilary.  The 1-minute\nvisible imagery from GOES-16 indicates strong convective towers are\nfiring in the northeastern eyewall, then attempting to rotate\ncyclonically around the center.  Still, the eyewall remains open in\nthe southwest quadrant, as suggested in the visible imagery and\nshown in a recent 1340 UTC SSMIS microwave pass.  Intensity\nestimates remain about the same as overnight, so the initial wind\nspeed will stay at 90 kt.\n\nHilary is forecast to remain in a conducive environment for\nstrengthening during the next day or so.  However, the northerly\nwind shear is not far away, as evidenced by cirrus clouds moving\ntoward the center in the northern semicircle, which could cause the\nhurricane to level off in intensity.  Similar to yesterday at this\ntime, the model guidance has really backed down off the peak\nintensity, with few of the solutions even showing Hilary reaching\n100 kt.  It was easier to ignore the models yesterday because they\nseemed unrealistic; today the shear is approaching and should\nimpact the cyclone within 24 hours.  It seems best to only gradually\nreduce the intensity forecast, so the latest NHC prediction is\nadjusted toward the model consensus by day 3, when more significant\nweakening is expected due to cooler waters, drier air, and\ninteraction with Hurricane Irwin.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a little to the left and faster,\n285/10 kt. A mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the\nsouthwestern United States should cause Hilary to continue on a\nwest to west-northwestward track for the next several days.  In a\nfew days, however, Hilary is likely to pass close to Hurricane\nIrwin.  While Irwin won't affect Hilary too much, the bulk of the\nguidance is showing a slowdown and slight turn to the left of\nHilary as Irwin tugs on its circulation.  Overall, models are in\nfairly good agreement considering the complexity of the situation,\nwith even most of the GFS-based guidance now acknowledging the\nbinary interaction.  The official forecast has been gradually\nshifting westward at long range, and this advisory continues that\ntrend, near or just west of the model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 15.3N 107.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 15.8N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 16.3N 111.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 16.8N 113.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 17.4N 116.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 18.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  29/1200Z 19.5N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  30/1200Z 20.0N 127.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irwin Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nRecent microwave imagery confirms that Irwin has a well-defined\nmid-level eye, which has also been apparent in shortwave infrared\nsatellite imagery.  On the whole, satellite intensity estimates\nhave risen a little, so Irwin's initial intensity is now set at 70\nkt.  Various shear analyses indicate that about 15 kt of southerly\nshear has developed over Irwin, which isn't surprising since\nmicrowave data has hinted that the low-level center may be located\njust a bit south of the mid-level eye.  This shear is expected to\ncontinue for another 24 hours or so, which will likely prevent\nIrwin from any additional significant strengthening.  After 24\nhours, Irwin's proximity to Hurricane Hilary is likely to induce\nsome weakening, as well as the potential for upwelling of colder\nwater due to Irwin's slow motion through 72 hours.  More\ndefinitive weakening is likely by day 5 as Irwin reaches higher\nlatitudes and much colder waters.  The intensity models are fairly\nstable at the moment the latest runs did not suggest that any\nchanges were needed to the previous forecast.  It should be noted\nthat while most of the global models maintain Irwin as a separate\nand distinct cyclone from Hilary through day 5, the ECMWF model\nindicates that Irwin could be absorbed by that time.\n\nIrwin appears to be moving slowly westward, or 270/5 kt.  The\ncyclone's future track will largely be dictated its the binary\ninteraction with Hilary.  First, as Hilary approaches from the\neast, Irwin is expected to dip west-southwestward and southwestward\nduring the first 48 hours.  It will likely stall by day 3, but then\nget pulled northward and northwestward around the eastern side of\nHilary's circulation.  Although there is still considerable spread\nin the track models after 72 hours, the regional HWRF and HMON\nmodels are now on board with the binary interaction.  Therefore,\nthe NHC track forecast is much closer to the TVCN multi-model\nconsensus than it has been during the past few days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 15.6N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 15.2N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 14.7N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 14.2N 122.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 13.9N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 14.4N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  29/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  30/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Greg Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nGreg is only producing patchy deep convection, and its center is\nbecoming increasingly difficult to locate.  Subjective and\nobjective Dvorak CI numbers have all fallen below 2.5, and Greg is\ntherefore downgraded to a 30-kt depression.  Southerly shear\ncontinues to increase over the cyclone due to a sharp upper-level\nshear axis located to its southwest, and that shear is expected to\nincrease further and turn out of the northwest during the next 48\nhours.  In addition, Greg is moving into a drier, more stable air\nmass, and over increasingly cooler waters.  Therefore, continued\nweakening is expected, and Greg could also end up losing all\norganized deep convection by 36 hours.  The NHC forecast calls for\nGreg to degenerate into a remnant low at that time, but it could\ncertainly occur sooner.  The remnant low is likely to open up into\na trough by day 5.\n\nGreg is moving west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.  Low- to mid-level\ntroughing north of the depression should maintain a northwestward\nor west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours.  After that\ntime, the remnant low should turn westward and then west-\nsouthwestward, steered by the low-level trade winds.  The spread in\nthe track models continues to be speed related (bounded by the\nslower GFS and faster ECMWF), and the NHC track forecast lies close\nto the various consensus models.  This updated forecast is a little\nfaster than the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 16.2N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 16.9N 138.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 17.6N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 17.8N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  27/1800Z 17.7N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  28/1800Z 16.9N 146.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  29/1800Z 16.0N 149.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n300 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nHilary continues to have a somewhat asymmetric presentation on the\nlatest satellite imagery, with an eye feature in the northwestern\nportion of the central dense overcast, suggestive of some\nnorthwesterly shear.  The initial wind speed remains 90 kt since\nthere have been no significant changes to the satellite estimates.\nHigher wind shear is not far away from the hurricane, as evidenced\nby southward-moving cirrus clouds moving toward the center in the\nnorthern semicircle. Thus the window of time for Hilary to intensify\nmay be closing, and little change in wind speed is shown for the\nnext day or so. Afterward, gradually cooling SSTs, entrainment of\ndrier air, and interaction with Hurricane Irwin is likely to cause\nmore significant weakening.  The NHC forecast is reduced from the\nprevious one in the near term due to the shear, and at long range as\nHilary probably moves over cold waters.  This is not a particularly\nconfident forecast at days 4-5 due to the interaction with Irwin.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is the same as previous, 285/10 kt. A\nmid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from the southwestern\nUnited States should cause Hilary to continue on a west to\nwest-northwestward track for the next several days.  In a few days,\nhowever, Hilary is likely to pass close to Hurricane Irwin.  While\nIrwin won't affect Hilary too much, the bulk of the guidance is\nshowing Hilary slowing down and turning slightly left as Irwin pulls\non Hilary's circulation.  Model guidance has become more divergent\nafter day 3, with the GFS indicating a northwestward motion due to\nthe ridge weakening along 120-125W.  The other guidance has been\nmore consistent, so only small changes were made to the latest NHC\nforecast, which remains generally south and west of the model\nconsensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.5N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 15.9N 110.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 16.4N 112.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 16.9N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  28/1800Z 18.7N 120.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  29/1800Z 19.7N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  30/1800Z 20.5N 127.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irwin Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nIrwin's satellite presentation has improved since the last\nadvisory, with a well-defined eye showing up in infrared imagery,\nand an elongated band extending around the western and northern\nside of the circulation.  Using the eye pattern from the Dvorak\ntechnique yields an estimate of T4.5/77 kt, so the initial intensity\nis raised to 75 kt.  Irwin has already strengthened beyond what we\nwere originally forecasting, so it's a little difficult to know if\nit will intensify further.  However, 10-15 kt of southerly shear is\nexpected to remain over the cyclone for the next 24 hours, and the\nhurricane's slow motion could cause some upwelling of colder water.\nTherefore, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.\nAfter that time, Irwin will begin interacting with Hurricane\nHilary, and since it has the smaller circulation of the two, it is\nlikely to suffer and be the one that loses intensity.  Water\ntemperatures also cool significantly as Irwin accelerates toward\nthe north, so more definitive weakening is expected by the end of\nthe forecast period.  Some of the global models show Irwin becoming\nabsorbed into Hilary's circulation before the end of the forecast\nperiod, so it's possible that dissipation could occur by day 5.\n\nIrwin continues to move generally westward, but that motion is\nlikely to become more west-southwestward from 12-48 hours as Hilary\napproaches from the east.  The Fujiwhara interaction with Hilary\nwill then cause Irwin to stall around day 3, and then accelerate\naround the southeast and then northeast side of Hilary on days 4\nand 5.  Although the track models all agree on this general\nscenario, there remain a large amount of spread regarding when and\nwhere Irwin will turn toward the north.  To be conservative, the\nupdated NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope, close to the previous forecast but also to the right of\nthe TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.7N 120.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 15.3N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 14.8N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 14.4N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 14.3N 123.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  28/1800Z 14.7N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  29/1800Z 17.5N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  30/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Greg Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n800 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nA new burst of convection has developed over the western side of\nthe circulation of Greg during the past couple of hours, helping to\nmaintain the system as a 30-kt depression. The current convection is\nexpected to be relatively short lived, however, as southerly shear\nshould increase over the cyclone due to a sharp upper-level shear\naxis located to its southwest. At the same time, the cyclone will\ncontinue to move into a drier and more stable airmass, and over\nincreasingly cooler waters. Over the next 24 hours, the shear is\nexpected to increase even further and turn out of the northwest.\nThis will induce further weakening, and organized deep convection\nis expected to be sheared away from the system's circulation by\nWednesday night. Therefore, the NHC forecast calls for Greg to\ndegenerate into a remnant low by that time, but it could occur\nsooner. The remnant low is then likely to open up into a trough by\nday 4 or 5.\n\nGreg has been moving northwestward at 310/12 kt. The forecast track\nreasoning remains the same as the previous forecast, as low- to\nmid-level troughing north of the depression should maintain a\nnorthwestward or west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours or\nso. After that time, the remnant low should turn westward and then\nwest-southwestward, embedded in the low-level trade winds forced by\nsurface high pressure to the north. Model guidance is tightly\nclustered through 36 hours, but then begins to spread a little,\nlikely due to differences in the strength of the low-level ridge.\nThe latest NHC track is near the GFS/ECMWF consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 17.2N 138.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.8N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 18.2N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  27/1200Z 18.3N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0000Z 18.0N 144.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/0000Z 17.0N 147.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0000Z 16.0N 150.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Latto/Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n900 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nHilary's convective cloud pattern has continued to fluctuate\nbetween an occasional symmetric appearance containing a\ncloud-covered eye to the current asymmetric pattern with little\nor no outer banding features evident and the eye completely\nobscured in conventional infrared imagery. However, recent SSMI,\nSSMIS, and AMSU microwave images still indicate that Hilary has a\nwell-defined, 10-nmi-diameter eye and a thick eyewall beneath the\ncirrus canopy. Satellite intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt\nand T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, to T5.5/102 kt from\nthe NHC Dvorak objective technique. Given the large range of\nestimates, the initial intensity will remain at 90 kt for now, which\ncould be a little conservative.\n\nThe initial motion remains a steady 285/10 kt. Hilary is forecast to\ncontinue on a general west-northwestward track for the next 72 hours\nor so. Thereafter, a slight bend toward the west with a decrease in\nforward speed is expected due to binary/Fujiwhara interaction with\nHurricane Irwin. The forward speed difference between Hilary and\nIrwin is about 3-4 kt, with Hilary steadily getting closer to Irwin.\nThat trend should continue on days 4 and 5 with the distance between\nthe two cyclones decreasing to about 300 nmi, resulting in the two\nsystems orbiting cyclonically about each other. Since Hilary is\nforecast to be the larger and more dominant circulation, Irwin's\neffect on Hilary's track is expected to be minimal. The latest NHC\nmodel guidance remains tightly clustered around the previous\nadvisory track, so the new track forecast is just an extension of\nthe previous advisory.\n\nAlthough SHIPS and UW-CIMMS shear analyses indicate north to\nnorthwesterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, there is no\nevidence of this shear based on water vapor imagery showing nearly\nsymmetrical cirrus outflow and the eye being embedded in the center\nor south side of the CDO. The main inhibiting factor that has kept\nHilary from strengthening appears to have been intermittent dry air\nintrusions into the inner-core region causing a brief erosion of\nthe eyewall convection. Microwave data suggests that dry air remains\nnearby, so little if any intensification is forecast for the next\n24 hours as a result. By 36 h and beyond, Hilary will be moving\nover sub-26C SSTs and upper-ocean heat content values near zero, and\nreaching 24C water on days 4 and 5. The decreasing thermodynamics\nshould result in gradual weakening from 36-72 hours, with faster\nweakening thereafter. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows\nthe previous advisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.0N 109.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 16.9N 113.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 17.4N 115.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 19.2N 121.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 20.0N 124.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  31/0000Z 21.0N 128.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irwin Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Tue Jul 25 2017\n\nIrwin has strengthened a little more during the past several hours.\nThe eye of the hurricane has been occasionally evident in\nsatellite images and cloud tops in the eyewall are quite cold,\nclose to -80 C.  The convective structure is asymmetric, however,\nwith the majority of the deepest convection located to the west of\nthe center.  The latest Dvorak classifications have increased\nslightly, and support nudging the initial intensity upward to 80 kt.\n\nIrwin is moving westward at 7 kt as it is still being steered by a\nmid-level ridge to its northeast.  A turn to the west-southwest is\nexpected tonight and Wednesday as Hurricane Hilary approaches from\nthe east.  The forward motion of Irwin will likely come to a halt on\nThursday and Friday as Hilary passes by to the north.  After that\ntime, a general northward motion is expected as Irwin gets caught in\nthe flow on the east side of Hilary's circulation.  The models are\nin better agreement compared to previous cycles, but there is still\na fair amount of spread in where and when Irwin makes the northward\nturn.  The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous\none, and lies closest to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\n\nThe hurricane could be nearing its peak intensity, and weakening\nshould commence soon due to moderate wind shear and the potential\nfor cold water upwelling due to the expected slow motion of Irwin.\nBy the end of the forecast period, Irwin will be moving over much\ncooler SSTs and into a drier air mass, which should continue the\nweakening trend.  The models are in good agreement, and the NHC\nintensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nIrwin is a very compact hurricane.  ASCAT data from around 1800 UTC\nindicated that the tropical storm force winds extend no more than 60\nn mi from the center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.1N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 15.7N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 15.2N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 14.9N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 14.7N 124.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 18.2N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  31/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Greg Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017\n200 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nEven with the help of microwave imagery, the center of Greg is\ndifficult to locate due to the disorganization of the associated\nconvection. The best estimate is that the center is to the\nsoutheast of the remaining convection.  The initial intensity\nremains 30 kt for this advisory, which could be generous.  A\ncombination of continued southerly to westerly shear, a dry air\nmass, and cool sea surface temperatures along the forecast track\nshould cause the cyclone to stop producing convection and degenerate\nto a remnant low in about 24 h.  The low is subsequently expected\nto weaken to a trough in 72-96 h.\n\nThe initial motion is 305/12.  Low- to mid-level troughing north of\nthe depression should maintain a northwestward or west-northwestward\nmotion for the next 12-24 hours.  After that, the remnant low\nshould turn west-southwestward in the trade winds.  The forecast\ntrack lies near the model consensus and is similar to the previous\nadvisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 17.8N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 18.2N 140.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 18.4N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  27/1800Z 18.3N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/0600Z 17.9N 145.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  29/0600Z 17.0N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n300 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nThe structure of Hilary has changed little during the past several\nhours.  Conventional satellite imagery shows a central dense\novercast that is slightly elongated north-to-south, most likely due\nto the impact of some northerly shear.  An eye is occasionally\nappearing in infrared imagery, and microwave data continues to\nindicate an eye present under the overcast.  However, the eye has\nnot yet become well-developed enough to justify an increase in the\ninitial intensity, which remains 90 kt in agreement with a blend of\nthe various satellite estimates.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/11.  The track forecast is essentially\nunchanged for the next 72 h, while Hilary is expected to be steered\nby the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north.  After that time,\nthe guidance has become increasingly divergent due to disagreements\non how much a mid- to upper-level trough just west of California\naffects the ridge.  The GFS uses the trough to break the ridge and\nallow Hilary to move almost northward by the end of the period,\nwhich is a major shift to the right since the previous advisory.\nThe UKMET and Canadian models keep the strongest ridge and forecast\na more westward motion.  The ECMWF is between these extremes, but\nhas shifted northward since the previous advisory.  An additional\ncomplication is the possibility of interaction with Hurricane\nIrwin.  The new GFS forecast calls for little interaction, while the\nUKMET and Canadian merge the two cyclones in 3-4 days and the ECMWF\nhas interaction at days 4-5.  The latter part of the new forecast\ntrack will be moved northward based on the northward shift of the\nGFS, ECMWF, and the various consensus models.  However, it lies to\nthe south of the consensus models and the center of the guidance\nenvelope in deference to the UKMET and Canadian forecasts.  This\npart of the forecast is low confidence and additional adjustments\nmay be needed later.\n\nSome slight strengthening is possible today even though Hilary is\nin marginal shear conditions.  After that, the cyclone should move\nover progressively cooler sea surface temperatures and gradually\nweaken.  The new intensity forecast has changed little through 72\nhours, and then shows a faster rate of decay based on a track over\ncolder water than previously forecast.  It should be noted that the\nuncertainty in the track forecast also affects the intensity\nforecast, as either a more northward motion or interaction with\nIrwin would probably weaken the cyclone faster than currently\nforecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 16.3N 111.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 16.7N 112.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 17.1N 114.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 17.6N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 21.0N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  31/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irwin Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nAn earlier 0500 UTC METOP-A AMSU image and fortuitous ASCAT\nA/B overpasses indicate that Irwin's circulation center is located\nnear the southern edge of the cloud canopy.  Apparently, the\nmoderate southeasterly outflow produced by Hurricane Hilary is\naffecting Irwin's core structure.  Cloud tops have warmed during\nthe past several hours and a compromise of the Dvorak subjective\nT-numbers from SAB and TAFB support an initial intensity of 70 kt\nfor this advisory.  The global models as well as the\nstatistical-dynamical intensity guidance show continued slow\nweakening during the next 36 hours while the hurricane remains\nwithin the impinging upper-level outflow of Hilary.  Afterward,\nfurther gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone traverses\ncooler oceanic temperatures and enters a less than favorable\nthermodynamic environment.  The official forecast is similar to the\nprevious package and is based on the IVCN consensus.\n\nThe much anticipated turn toward the west-southwest has finally\ncommenced, and the cyclone motion is estimated to be 255/6 kt.\nSome binary interaction with Hilary during the next 48 hours or\nso should cause Irwin to stall, and then accelerate cyclonically\naround the southeast through northeast periphery of Hilary on days\n4 and 5.  Global and ensemble models, however, show a much slower\nforward motion beyond 72 hours than what was indicated in the\nprevious advisory, and adjustments to the 96 and 120 hour forecast\nperiods have been made accordingly.  The NHC forecast reflects this\nsignificant change in the guidance and is based a blend of the TVCX\nand HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) models.\n\nThe ASCAT 0502 UTC scatterometer data and the RVCN multi-model\nconsensus were used for the initial and forecast wind radii.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 15.7N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 15.5N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 15.1N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 14.8N 124.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 14.7N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 14.9N 124.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  31/0600Z 20.5N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP072017","Contents":"\nZCZC HFOTCDCP2 ALL\nTTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Greg Discussion Number  37\nNWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI   EP072017\nIssued By NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL\n500 AM HST Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nStrong shear became established over Greg, and the cyclone now\nconsists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a few small patches of\ndeep convection. Initial intensity is 25 kt, and with increasing\nshear and cool waters nearby, weakening should continue. Greg should\nbecome a remnant low later today.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10 kt\nsteered by the low-level trades, and this general motion should\ncontinue until dissipation in a day or so.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 18.1N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 18.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  27/1200Z 18.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  28/0000Z 18.0N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n900 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Hilary remains a powerful hurricane.\nThe central dense overcast has become more symmetric, although\nconvection is still preferentially forming in the eastern eyewall.\nAny eye feature, however, is somewhat less distinct than a few hours\nago, and the latest microwave passes are again showing an open\neyewall on the west side. Intensity estimates range from 82 to 99\nkt, so the initial wind speed will stay at 90 kt.\n\nThere are still hints of northerly shear in cirrus cloud motions\nfrom the 1-min GOES-16 data, although the cyclone's cloud canopy\nlooks less distorted than yesterday.  This shear is forecast to\npersist for the next day or two while the hurricane moves over\nwarm waters.  After that time, while the shear could decrease,\nHilary will be traversing marginally warm waters, with some increase\nin drier, more stable air in the environment.  Most of the guidance\nis in good agreement on little change in the short-term, with a\ngradual decrease in wind speed through 3 days.  Beyond then, much\ncolder waters should cause a more rapid weakening, along with some\ninteraction with Irwin. The new NHC forecast is basically an update\nof the previous one and lies close to IVCN, the variable intensity\nmodel consensus. It should be noted that the ECMWF is on its own by\nintensifying Hilary to a major hurricane in 2 to 3 days.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/11.  The track forecast is essentially\nunchanged for the next 48 h, while Hilary is expected to be steered\nby the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north.  After that time,\nthe ridge is forecast to become weaker to due to a mid- to\nupper-level trough dropping over the Baja California peninsula.\nModels are not in good agreement on how much the ridge weakens due\nto this trough, leading to a wide disparity of solutions at long\nrange.  There has been little change in the guidance suite since 6z,\nso the official forecast is close to the previous one.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 16.4N 112.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.7N 113.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 17.1N 115.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 17.5N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 18.1N 118.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 19.7N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 21.4N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  31/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nSatellite images and microwave data indicate that Irwin's cloud\npattern has significantly deteriorated since yesterday. It now\nconsists of a tight circulation center located just to the south of\nan area of deep, but not too well organized, convection.\nConsequently, the initial intensity has been decreased to 55 kt\nbased on lower Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies. The environment\ndoes not support significant weakening, but is not favorable for\nmuch intensification either. The NHC forecast calls for a slight\nweakening today, and shows no change in intensity for the\nnext 5 days. Although the intensity forecast is a little bit\ndifferent from the previous one due to the lower current intensity,\nit does not change the general trend expressed in previous NHC\nforecasts.\n\nIrwin is moving toward the west-southwest or 255 degrees at 6 kt.\nCurrently, the cyclone is embedded within weak steering currents,\nand Irwin will probably continue on the same slow west-southwest\ntrack during the next day or two. After that time, Hurricane Hilary\nis forecast to pass well north of Irwin, and the steering currents\nwill change to southerlies, and most of the models agree that Irwin\nshould begin to move with a northerly component in the wake of\nHilary. This is reflected in the official NHC forecast which in fact\nis close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and is not very\ndifferent from the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 15.6N 122.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 14.9N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  31/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n300 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nThere haven't been many changes with Hilary during the past several\nhours.  The hurricane continues to produce very deep convection,\nalthough the cyclone remains a little lopsided on the right side.\nDvorak satellite estimates are a consensus T5.0 from TAFB & SAB, so\nthe winds will be kept at 90 kt.\n\nMicrowave data indicate that northerly shear is affecting Hilary,\nwith some displacement seen on the mid- and lower-level channels,\nalong with a weak northwest eyewall.  The shear is forecast to\nlinger for the next day or two while the hurricane moves over\nwarm waters.  Thereafter, while the shear should decrease,\nHilary will be moving across marginally warm waters, with an\nincrease in drier, more stable air in the environment expected.\nGuidance remains in fairly good agreement on little change in\nstrength for the short-term, with a gradual decrease in wind speed\nthrough day 3.  Notably, the ECMWF has backed off on its major\nhurricane forecast for Irwin.  Beyond then, much cooler waters and a\ndry stable air mass should cause a more rapid weakening, along with\nsome interaction with Irwin.  Little change was made to the previous\nNHC forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/11.  Hilary should move between west or\nwest-northwest during the next day or so while it is steered\nby the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north.  After that time,\nthe ridge is forecast to become weaker due to a mid- to upper-level\ntrough dropping over the Baja California peninsula. Models are\nhaving much difficulty on resolving these features, with\nthe ECMWF shifting over 400 n mi to the southwest on this run as\nthe cyclone gets hit by northerly flow west of the trough.  The GFS\ncontinues on the northeast side of the guidance envelope as the\ntrough just weakens the ridge, allowing Hilary to move\nnorthwestward. The official forecast is shifted somewhat westward\nwith the consensus but, since our best two models are on opposite\nedges of the guidance envelope, this is a very low confidence\nforecast.  This forecast has Hilary very close to Irwin at day 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.7N 113.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 17.0N 114.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 18.1N 118.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 18.7N 119.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 20.3N 123.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 21.5N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  31/1800Z 23.0N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nIrwin is a sheared tropical cyclone with the center exposed and\nlocated on the southern edge of the convection. The shear is\nprobably caused by the outflow from Hurricane Hilary. An average of\nthe Dvorak T-numbers and data from a recent scatterometer pass yield\nan initial intensity of 45 kt. The shear will likely continue, but\nit is not expected to be strong enough to further disrupt the\nstructure of the cyclone. The NHC forecast calls for no change in\nintensity during the next 5 days as per the previous advisory. Most\nof the guidance maintains a near-steady intensity.\n\nThe cyclone is currently embedded within weak steering currents, and\nit is moving toward the west-southwest or 250 degrees at 6 kt. No\nchange in the steering flow is noted in the global models for the\nnext day or two, so Irwin will likely continue its current slow\nmotion. Thereafter, Hurricane Hilary is forecast to pass well north\nof Irwin, and the steering currents will change to southerlies. Most\nof the models agree that Irwin should begin to move with a northerly\nor north-northwesterly component in the wake of Hilary. This is\nreflected in the official NHC forecast which, is in the middle of\nthe guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 15.1N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 14.9N 123.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 14.5N 124.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 14.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  31/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n900 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nRecent microwave images indicate that Hilary is vertically titled\ndue to 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear.  Although the low-level\ncenter of the hurricane is still located beneath very cold\ncloud tops, the overall cloud pattern appears more ragged than it\nwas earlier today.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB\nhave held steady at 5.0/90 kt, but based on the degraded appearance\nand structure, the initial wind speed is lowered a little to 85 kt.\nThis intensity estimate is between the above mentioned subjective\nDvorak estimates and the ADT values from CIMSS at the University of\nWisconsin.\n\nThe moderate shear currently affecting Hilary is expected to\ncontinue for about another day, which should cause some additional\nweakening.  Even though the shear should lessen beyond 24 hours,\nHilary will be moving over progressively cooler waters and it is\nforecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm in about 2 days.  These\nless favorable oceanic conditions and a progressively drier and more\nstable air mass should cause additional weakening, and Hilary is\nexpected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the\nforecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than\nprevious one, and it is close to the HFIP and IVCN consensus models.\n\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt steered by a\nmid-level ridge to its northeast.  The track forecast philosophy\nhas not changed from the past few advisories.  Although some\ninteraction may take place with Irwin, currently located about 500\nnmi to the west of Hilary, it is not expected to have much of an\nimpact on the future path of Hilary.  A general track to the\nwest-northwest at a slightly slower pace is expected throughout the\nforecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the\nprevious one, and it is in best agreement with the various consensus\naids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 17.1N 114.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 17.9N 117.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 18.6N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 19.3N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 20.7N 124.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  31/0000Z 21.8N 128.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 22.9N 131.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Wed Jul 26 2017\n\nIrwin is still displaying the cloud pattern of a sheared tropical\ncyclone, with the strongest convection displaced to the west and\nnorthwest of the low-level center due to moderate southeasterly\nvertical wind shear. Upper-level outflow is restricted in the\nsoutheastern semicircle, but is good to the northwest. Satellite\nintensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB\nusing a shear pattern. However, a recent SSMI microwave image\nindicates that just a narrow band of convection exists under the\ncirrus canopy near and to the north-through-west of the center, so\nthe intensity has only been increased slightly to 50 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 255/06 kt. Hurricane Hilary continues\nto steadily draw closer and is now within about 500 nmi to the east\nof Irwin. Hilary's larger circulation should gradually begin to\ninfluence Irwin's track by imparting an eastward motion, resulting\nin Irwin slowing down significantly and possibly even stalling in\nthe 48-72 hour period when Hilary passes about 300 nmi to the north.\nOn days 4 and 5, Irwin is forecast to accelerate northward and then\nnorthwestward up the eastern and northeastern portion of Hilary's\nouter circulation. The global and regional models are in decent\nagreement on this developing track scenario, and the new official\ntrack forecast is a little slower than and east of the previous\ntrack, and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.\n\nHilary is currently experiencing moderate southeasterly shear of\nabout 15 kt, caused by the outflow on the west side of Hurricane\nHilary. As the two cyclones draw closer to each other during the\nnext three days, the outflow-induced shear from Hilary is expected\nto gradually back around to the east and northeast, and steadily\nincrease to more than 20 kt. This unfavorable upper-level flow\nregime should prevent any significant strengthening from occuring\nfor the next 24 hours or so, and cause some slight weakening\nthereafter. The official intensity forecast follows the intensity\nconsensus model IVCN through 36 h, and is lower than the consensus\nfor the remainder of the forecast period due to the aforementioned\nincreasing shear, and also due to Irwin moving sub-26C SSTs by 96 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 14.9N 123.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 14.8N 123.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 14.6N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 14.6N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 14.7N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 16.2N 124.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  31/0000Z 19.7N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 24.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nHilary has lost organization due to the effects of moderate\nnortherly vertical shear, with recent Windsat and GPM overpasses\nindicating that the center is now near the northwestern edge of the\nmain convective area.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates are\n75-90 kt, while estimates based on microwave sounding data and\nthe CIMSS ADT are 55-65 kt.  Based on a blend of these, the\ninitial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 75 kt.\n\nThe large-scale models forecast Hilary to move under a cyclonic\nshear axis between two upper-level high pressure areas during the\nnext 24-48 h.  This evolution may allow the current shear to\ndecrease, but it is not an ideal environment for a tropical\ncyclone.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for little change in\nstrength during this time, which is in good agreement with the\nintensity guidance.  After 48 h, Hilary should move over cooler sea\nsurface temperatures, and it is likely to significantly interact\nwith Tropical Storm Irwin.  The large-scale models differ on the\ndetails, but they agree that the combination of the interaction, dry\nair, and the presence of cool water should cause Hilary to quickly\nweaken as a result.  Thus, the new intensity forecast now calls for\nthe system to degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast\nperiod.\n\nThe initial motion is 290/10.  For the first 48 h or so, Hilary\nshould be steered generally west-northwestward by the subtropical\nridge.  After that, the track forecast becomes very uncertain due\nto the interaction with Irwin, where the latter cyclone is likely\nto move around the eastern and northern sides of Hilary before a\npossible merger. The Canadian model merges the two cyclones in\nabout 72 h, while the GFS finishes the merger at about 120 h.  On\nthe other hand, the ECMWF delays the merger until after the forecast\nperiod, while the UKMET keeps the two systems separate.  The new\ntrack forecast will not attempt to show the details of the\ninteraction, but it will show more of a westward turn and changes in\nspeed during the interaction than the previous forecast.  Overall,\nthe new track is close to the consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 17.3N 115.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 17.7N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 18.4N 118.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 19.8N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 21.0N 126.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  31/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  01/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nOverall, Irwin's cloud pattern has change little during the past\nseveral hours.  An earlier 0218 UTC SSMIS microwave pass shows a\nconsiderable structural vertical tilt toward the northwest due to\nthe impinging southeasterly shear produced by Hilary to the east.\nExperimental GOES-16 channel 9 mid-level water vapor imagery\nindicates drier air intruding in the northeast quadrant of Irwin\nwith subsequent convective erosion in that portion of the cloud\ncanopy.  The Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB\nsupport maintaining the initial intensity at 50 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe dynamical intensity models indicate that the moderate\nsoutheasterly shear will back more toward the northeast during the\nnext 12-24 hours as Hilary invades from the northeast.  Beyond the\n24 hour period, the intensity forecast becomes a bit problematic.\nThe hurricane models, the HFIP Corrected Consensus, the Florida\nState Superensemble, and the GFS/ECMWF global models all show\nIrwin strengthening back into a hurricane under much improved\ndiffluent flow aloft.  The statistical-dynamical intensity models,\non the other hand, show only slight strengthening.  As a compromise\nfor this forecast package, the official forecast shows modest\nstrengthening, then gradual weakening after 48 hours.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-southwestward, or 255/05\nkt.  As Hilary continues to moves closer and passes to the\nnorth of Irwin, a significant reduction in Irwin's forward speed,\nessentially drifting in a cyclonic fashion, is expected during the\nnext 24-36 hours.  After that time, the cyclone is forecast to\naccelerate northward and then northwestward up the eastern and\nnorthern portion of Hilary's peripheral circulation. The\ndeterministic guidance remains in fair agreement with this synoptic\npattern scenario, and the NHC forecast is similar to the previous\none and is based on a blend of the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 14.7N 123.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 14.5N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 14.3N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 14.7N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 17.8N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  31/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  01/0600Z 24.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nHilary remains somewhat sheared, and shortwave IR imagery\nsuggests that much of the western semicircle of the circulation has\nexposed this morning.  The intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based\non a blend of Final-T and current intensity (CI) values from TAFB\nand SAB, and the CI from the UW-CIMSS ADT.\n\nThe intensity forecast is defined by a split in the dynamical and\nstatistical guidance.  The dynamical COAMPS-TC and HWRF models show\na brief period of re-intensification due to a decrease in shear\nthat allows convection to re-wrap around the circulation.  On the\nother hand, the statistical models show gradual weakening\nthroughout the forecast period.  For the first 36 h, the NHC\nforecast splits the difference between these scenarios.  After that\ntime, quickly dropping SSTs along the forecast track should lead to\nsteady weakening.  By 120 h, Hilary is shown to be a remnant low,\nand is expected to have absorbed the circulation of Irwin, which is\nforecast to move within just a few degrees of Hilary by day 4.\nOverall, the new official forecast is a little lower than the\nprevious advisory.\n\nAlthough the track forecast remains complicated due to the imminent\ninteraction of Hilary and Irwin, very little change has been made\nto the forecast track.  A mid-level ridge extending from the\nsouthwestern U.S. will keep Hilary moving generally west-northwest\nor northwestward for a day or two.  The ridge weakens a little\nafter that, but the approach of Irwin should affect the track of\nHilary at least a little.  The GFS shows a stronger Hilary that\ndominates the interaction with Irwin while the ECMWF shows two\nsomewhat weaker systems that have a more binary interaction that\nresults in a more westward motion.  Given the cool SSTs ahead of\nHilary, the forecast continues to favor slightly the ECMWF solution,\nand is close to the corrected consensus HCCA, especially at 72 h and\nbeyond.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 17.6N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 18.0N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 18.7N 118.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 19.5N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 21.2N 127.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  31/1200Z 21.8N 131.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  01/1200Z 22.6N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Irwin's cloud pattern has not\nchanged very much since the last advisory. The low-level center\nappears to be located on the eastern edge of the deep convection\ndue to the shear caused by Hilary's outflow.  The Dvorak estimates\nstill yield an initial intensity of 50 kt.  The environment is\nneither hostile nor favorable for a significant change in strength\nfor the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a steady weakening should begin\nas the circulation encounters cooler waters.  By day four, a weaker\nIrwin should be very close to Hilary, and by day five, the two\ncyclones should have merged, with Hilary becoming the dominant\nfeature.  This is the solution provided by the ECMWF and GFS global\nmodels, and it reflected in the NHC forecast.\n\nCurrently, Irwin is forecast to remain embedded within very light\nsteering currents and only a small westward drift is anticipated\nduring the next two days.  After that time, Hilary should have\nalready passed by the north of Irwin.  The cyclone should then begin\nto move northward and northwestward around Hilary's circulation\nuntil the the merge occurrs.  The NHC forecast is in the middle of\nthe guidance envelope formed by the northernmost GFS and\nsouthernmost ECMWF.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 15.0N 124.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 15.0N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 15.0N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  31/1200Z 23.0N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH MERGING\n120H  01/1200Z...MERGED WITH HILARY\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Hilary Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nSince the last advisory, the structure of Hilary has changed quite\na bit.  The primary feature is now a long band, extending almost\n3/4 of the way around the circulation.  Cloud tops have warmed\nduring this time and a pronounced dry slot is visible over the\neastern half of the circulation.  Subjective and objective Dvorak\nintensity estimates have decreased, so the intensity has been\ndecreased accordingly, to 65 kt.\n\nThe intensity guidance remains divided, with the HWRF and COAMPS-TC\nmodels insisting on reintensification, and SHIPS and LGEM\nshowing steady state or weakening.  Simulated IR imagery from the\nHWRF forecast shows the development of a nearly clear eye in only 12\nhours.  Given the current structure of the cyclone, this seems\nunlikely.  Therefore, the new official intensity forecast favors the\nstatistical guidance and is a little above a blend of SHIPS and\nLGEM through 36 h.  After that time, decreasing SSTs along the\nforecast track should result in steady weakening, ultimately causing\nthe cyclone to become a remnant low.  Since it is the stronger\nsystem, Hilary is still expected to dominate the interaction with\nIrwin, and is now forecast to absorb Irwin in about 96 h, as\ndepicted by the ECMWF.\n\n1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 was very helpful in\ndetermining the initial position of of Hilary at 1800 UTC, and the\nlow-level circulation has at times been visible through the higher\ncirrus cover.  The initial motion is a somewhat more certain 290/8\nkt.  The extent to which Irwin will affect the track of Hilary still\nvaries between the global models, with the GFS showing a stronger\nHilary moving farther north, and the UKMET and ECMWF showing a\nweaker Hilary pulled farther south.  The official track forecast\nstill lies between these solutions, but favors the southern\nsolution since the intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening\nthroughout the forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 17.9N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 18.3N 117.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 19.1N 119.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 19.8N 121.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 20.5N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  31/1800Z 22.5N 131.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  01/1800Z 23.7N 134.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nThere has been no change in the structure of Irwin. The cyclone\ncontinues to be sheared with the center intermittently located in\nand out of the convection. Dvorak numbers remain unchanged,\nconsequently, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt in this\nadvisory. The environment is neither hostile nor favorable for a\nsignificant change in strength for the next 48 hours, so only small\nfluctuations in intensity are anticipated during that period.\nThereafter, steady weakening should begin as Irwin's circulation\nencounters cooler waters. By day four, Irwin should have merged with\nHilary. This continues to be the solution provided by the ECMWF and\nGFS global models, and it is indicated in the NHC forecast.\n\nSteering currents are very weak and Irwin is basically meandering\nwestward. No significant motion is forecast until Hilary passes to\nthe north in about 2 days. By then, Irwin is expected to begin\nmoving northward a little bit faster steered by the southerly flow\nin the wake of Hilary. Guidance is consistent with the very slow\nmotion during the next day or so, and most of the models clearly\ncapture the faster northward motion around Hilary later in the\nperiod. The NHC forecast, primarily beyond 2 days, follows the\nmulti-model consensus, and is in between the faster ECMWF and the\nslower GFS.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 14.9N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 14.7N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 14.6N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 19.0N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  31/1800Z...Merged with Hilary\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Hilary has been decreasing during\nthe last several hours, and the convective pattern is now limited to\na ragged central dense overcast.  This loss of convection appears to\nbe associated with dry air that has wrapped into the circulation, as\nevident in microwave data.  An average of the latest Final T- and\nCI-numbers from TAFB/SAB, along with ADT values from CIMSS at the\nUniversity of Wisconsin, support lowering the initial intensity to\n60 kt, making Hilary a tropical storm.\n\nHilary still has another 18-24 hours over warm water, and the\nregional hurricane models respond to this by showing Hilary\nrestrengthening during that time.  Given the observed weakening\ntrend over the past day or so and Hilary's current struggle with dry\nair, the NHC intensity forecast lies at the low end of the guidance\nduring that time frame, and calls for the storm to remain steady in\nintensity.  After 24 hours, Hilary is expected to cross the 26-deg C\nisotherm and it will be moving over even cooler waters and into a\ndrier air mass during the next few days.  These unfavorable\nconditions should cause weakening, and Hilary is forecast to become\na post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast\nis similar to the previous one, and it lies fairly close to the\nSHIPS and LGEM models.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 7 kt on the south\nside of a mid-level ridge.  This motion with a slight increase in\nforward speed is expected during the next couple of days as the\nmid-level ridge strengthens.  When Irwin rotates around the eastern\nand northern sides of Hilary in the 48- to 72-h time frame, Hilary\ncould turn briefly to the left before it absorbs Irwin.  Thereafter,\na slower motion to the west-northwest is predicted as the weakening\nstorm moves in the low- to mid-level flow.  The NHC track forecast\nis adjusted a little to the north of the previous one, to come into\nbetter agreement with the latest consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 18.3N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 18.8N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 21.2N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  31/0000Z 22.1N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z 23.2N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  02/0000Z 24.5N 134.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017\n\nIrwin's convective pattern has changed little since the previous\nadvisory. A long curved but fragmented band of convection wraps\nalmost 75 percent of the way around the circulation center, yielding\na consensus Dvorak intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from both TAFB\nand SAB. However, objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC are\nT2.9/43 kt and T3.0/45 kt, respectively, which are supported by an\nearlier UW-CIMSS AMSU estimate of 45 kt. Based on average of these\nestimates, the initial intensity has been held at 50 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the west, or\n270/02 kt. For such weak steering currents, the latest NHC model\nguidance is in very good agreement on Irwin moving little for the\nnext 36 hours or so, followed by a faster motion toward the north at\n48 and 72 hours as the cyclone moves up the eastern and the northern\nsides of Tropical Storm Hilary. Irwin is then forecast to merge with\nHilary by 96 hours. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the\nprevious advisory, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCN.\n\nThe overall environment surrounding Irwin is expected to change\nlittle before the cyclone merges with Tropical Storm Hilary, so only\nminor fluctuations in intensity are forecast, based primarily on\nslight changes in the vertical wind shear. The new forecast follows\nthe previous advisory and the consensus model IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 14.9N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 14.8N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 14.8N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 15.0N 125.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 16.4N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  31/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z...MERGED WITH TROPICAL STORM HILARY\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-07-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n\nThe structure of Hilary has changed little over the past several\nhours, as a small area of convection persists near the center\nmainly in the southeastern quadrant.  Recent satellite intensity\nestimates range from 45-70 kt, and based on these, the initial\nintensity remains a possibly generous 60 kt.\n\nHilary should cross the 26C isotherm in 12-18 h, and given the\ncurrent level of convective organization, significant re-\nintensification seems unlikely during that time.  After that, the\ncyclone is forecast to move over steadily decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures and into a drier air mass, and this combination should\nresult in steady weakening.  The cyclone is now forecast to weaken\nto a depression in about 72 h over 24C sea surface temperatures and\ndegenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The new intensity\nforecast shows a faster weakening than the previous forecast after\n12 h, and it is in best overall agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM\nmodels.  It is possible that interaction with Tropical Storm Irwin\ncould lead to a faster decay than currently forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is 300/7, a little to the right of that in the\nprevious advisory.  A mid-level ridge to the north of Hilary is\nexpected to steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward for 48 h\nor so.  Around 72 h, a westward turn appears likely as the cyclone\ninteracts with, and eventually absorbs Irwin.  After this event,\nHilary or its remnants should resume a west-northwestward motion as\nthe weakening system is steered by the low-level flow.  The new\nforecast track is nudged north of the previous track, but it lies\nsouth of the consensus models, which have shifted northward since\nthe last advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 18.7N 117.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 19.3N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 20.3N 120.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 21.1N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 21.9N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  31/0600Z 22.5N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  02/0600Z 25.0N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-07-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n\nAlthough conventional satellite imagery shows recent improvement in\nthe banding feature wrapping around the eastern half of the\ncyclone, an ambiguity solution of a 0514 UTC ASCAT-B overpass\nindicates that Irwin has weakened.  Based on the scatterometer data\nand a blend of the subjective Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB\nand SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for this\nadvisory.  The CIMSS wind shear analysis and the SHIPS model both\nindicate that moderate northeasterly shear, produced by an\nanticyclone to the north, will be the primary inhibitor for any\nsignificant strengthening prior to Irwin's demise in 4 days.\nLittle change in the cyclone's intensity is forecast before the\nmerging of Irwin with Tropical Storm Hilary occurs around the 96\nhour period.\n\nThe initial motion estimate continues as a drift toward the\nwest, or 270/02 kt.  The large-scale models indicate this slow\nmotion, or meander, continuing through the 36 hour period.\nAfterward, Irwin is expected to accelerate northward around\nthe eastern peripheral flow of Hilary.  The global and\nregional models also generally agree with the merging of the two\ntropical cyclones to occur in 4 days, or less.  The official\nforecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous track\nforecast beyond 36 hours to align more closely to the TVCX and HCCA\nconsensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 14.9N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 14.9N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 15.0N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 15.7N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 17.4N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  31/0600Z 22.0N 126.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-07-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n\nCloud tops near the center of Hilary continue to warm this morning,\nand a consensus of objective and subjective Dvorak intensity\nestimates suggests a decreased initial intensity of 55 kt.  An AMSR\npass at 0913 UTC showed a band of deep convection spiraling into the\ncenter.  There is also a pronounced dry slot, indicative of the\ndrier environment that the cyclone is moving into.  Hilary is\ncrossing the 26 C SST isotherm this morning, so the window for any\nreintensification is closing quickly, despite the insistence of the\nHWRF and GFS which both show a hurricane in 24 hours.  Instead, the\nofficial forecast continues to follow the statistical models, which\ndepict steady weakening until Hilary becomes a remnant low.  The\nintensity forecast is a little lower than indicated in the previous\nadvisory based on the lower initial intensity, but no significant\nchanges have been made.\n\nThe low-level center of the tropical storm was briefly visible this\nmorning, and the initial motion is a fairly confident 305/7.  There\nhas been a significant shift in the guidance toward the north for\nthis advisory, especially the GFS and the GFS-based hurricane\nmodels. The 06Z GFS in particular has shifted nearly 500 nm to the\nnortheast at day 5 and no longer shows any significant interaction\nbetween Irwin and Hilary. The 00Z ECMWF also shifted a little north,\nbut not nearly to the same extent.  Interaction between the\ntwo cyclones, and the eventual absorption of Irwin by Hilary, is\nstill expected for now, as shown by the UKMET and ECMWF.  Based on\nthe changes in the guidance, the official forecast has been shifted\nnorth, but still lies well south of the multi-model consensus aids.\nIt does, however, fall near the middle of the ECMWF and GFS ensemble\ntracks.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 19.2N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 19.9N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 20.9N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 21.8N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 22.8N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 24.0N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 24.8N 132.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  02/1200Z 26.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-07-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n\nIrwin's structure has not changed significantly during the past\nseveral hours, and deep convection near the center has been\nblossoming intermittently.  Dvorak T-numbers have also been\nfluctuating, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 50\nkt. SHIPS model data indicate some shear over the cyclone but not\nstrong enough to disrupt the cloud pattern. On this basis, the NHC\nforecast calls for only small fluctuations in intensity during the\nnext 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to\nreach cooler waters and weakening should begin. This process will\ncontinue until Irwin and Hilary merge in about 96 hours or sooner.\n\nIrwin is embedded in light steering currents, and the cyclone has\nbarely moved during the past few hours. Little motion is\nanticipated today or early Saturday, but after that time, Irwin\nshould be steered northward and northwestward by the southerly\nflow in the wake of Hilary. Track guidance is in good agreement\nthat little motion will occur during the next day or so. There is a\nbig difference in both direction and speed among models beyond 3\ndays with the northernmost GFS and the southernmost ECMWF marking\nthe edges of the broad guidance envelope. However, by then, Irwin\nand Hilary should have already merged.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 14.8N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 14.8N 125.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 15.2N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 16.2N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 18.0N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z...Merge with Hilary\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-07-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n \nThe satellite presentation of Hilary has improved this afternoon.\nIn experimental GOES-16 1-minute imagery, hints of a dimple near\nthe center of the convection even appeared at one point this\nafternoon.  That said, current intensity estimates from TAFB and\nSAB are now 55 kt, so the initial intensity has been held at that\nvalue.  No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and\ngradual weakening is still expected while Hilary moves over\nprogressively cooler water and into a more stable environment.\n \nThe main forecast problem is the track, marked by very little\nrun-to-run consistency among the models.  Conceptually, the\nthinking hasn't changed since Hilary should be steered generally\nnorthwestward for a day or two by the subtropical ridge before\ninteracting with Irwin. The details of that interaction vary greatly\nfrom model-to-model and even run-to-run of a given model.  The final\ntracker position of Hilary in the ECMWF and UKMET has shifted\napproximately 200 and 400 n mi, respectively, since the last cycle.\nOn the other hand, the GFS depicts Hilary merging with Irwin in\nabout 72 h, over 500 nm south of the its previous 5-day point.\nDespite the shifts in the models, the simple and corrected consensus\naids haven't shifted significantly.  The new official forecast has\nbeen shifted about a degree to the northeast.  This is closer to,\nbut still southwest, of TVCN and HCCA, and is close to a average of\nthe GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  28/2100Z 19.7N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 20.4N 120.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 21.5N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.7N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 24.1N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  31/1800Z 25.5N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  01/1800Z 26.4N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  02/1800Z 27.5N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n \n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-07-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n\nAlthough Irwin's structure on visible satellite images looks well\norganized, infrared data show that the convection is not very deep,\nand the cyclone lacks an inner core. Dvorak T-numbers have not\nchanged much and still support an initial intensity of 50 kt. Some\nmoderate shear will be affecting the cyclone during the next 24 to\n36 hours, but it is not expected to be strong enough to disrupt the\ncloud pattern and result in weakening. On this basis, the NHC\nforecast calls for only small fluctuations in intensity during that\nperiod. Thereafter, the circulation is expected to reach cooler\nwaters, and weakening should then begin. This process will continue\nuntil Irwin and Hilary merge in about 96 hours or sooner.\n\nIrwin continues to be embedded in light steering currents, and\nthe cyclone has barely moved today.  Little motion is anticipated\nduring the next 12 hours, but by Saturday, Irwin should be steered\nnorthward and northwestward by the southerly flow in the wake of\nHilary. Track guidance is in good agreement for the next 3 days, but\nbeyond that time, models become uncertain in how the interaction of\nHilary and Irwin will take place. The NHC forecast continues to call\nfor the merging of the two weakening cyclones.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 14.9N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 16.8N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  31/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-07-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n\nDuring the past few hours, a faint eye has emerged with Hilary on\nvisible imagery, with even hints of a warm spot in the infrared\nchannel.  Overall, the satellite presentation has improved, and the\nsubjective satellite intensity estimates have risen to between 55\nand 65 kt. A blend of these values gives 60 kt for the initial\nintensity. This increase in winds should be short-lived since Hilary\nwill be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more\nstable environment.  By 48 hours, Hilary is forecast to become\na remnant low over 22.5C waters.  The latest NHC wind speed\nprediction is a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the\nintensity consensus.\n\nHilary continues moving northwestward, a little faster now at 10\nkt.  A mid-level ridge extending from southern California\nwest-southwestward across the eastern Pacific should steer Hilary\non this general path for the next couple of days.  The forecast then\ngets more complicated due to any interaction with TS Irwin.\nSurprisingly, the model guidance has fallen into good agreement\nsince the last cycle, displaying a slowdown for Hilary and a small\nturn to the west-northwest due to Irwin.  The latest models are\nfairly close to the previous NHC forecast, so no significant changes\nare made. The other model trend of note is that none of the main\nglobal models shows Hilary absorbing Irwin, likely due to how weak\nHilary will be in a few days.  Instead Hilary just dissipates over\nthe cold waters, and even a couple models have Irwin now absorbing\nHilary since it will have a much shorter time over the poor\nenvironment. The NHC forecast will now show dissipation of the\nremnant low of Hilary by day 5, in accordance with all of the global\nmodels.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 20.3N 120.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 21.1N 121.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 22.3N 123.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 23.6N 125.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 24.7N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0000Z 25.8N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/0000Z 26.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-07-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Fri Jul 28 2017\n\nMicrowave data indicate that inner-core convection has recently\ndeveloped near Irwin's center; however, the convection is not all\nthat deep, with cloud top temperatures no colder than about -65C.\nEven though Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are\nT3.5/55 kt, the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON estimates are significantly\nlower, so the initial intensity will remain 50 kt.  Vertical shear\ndoes not appear that it will be too prohibitive for the next 24\nhours, and in fact, some models like the HWRF and HCCA suggest that\nIrwin could gain a little strength during that time.  However, Irwin\nshould reach waters colder than 26C in about 36 hours, which will\ninduce a marked weakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast\nclosely follows a blend of HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus,\nand it now shows Irwin becoming a tropical depression by day 3.\n\nThe global models no longer show Irwin being absorbed by Hilary,\nprobably because Hilary will reach colder waters sooner and will not\nbe energetic enough to be the dominant system.  The guidance shows\none of two options:  Irwin absorbing Hilary or the two staying as\nseparate system.  Either way, these scenarios required keeping\nIrwin through day 4, but as a remnant low since ocean waters will\nbe quite cold.\n\nCenter fixes off of recent microwave images indicate that Irwin had\nbeen drifting southward or meandering for much of the day.  As\nHilary moves northwestward, Irwin is expected to get pulled slowly\nnorthward during the next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate\nnorth-northwestward on the east side of Hilary on days 2-4.  There\nis a fair amount of spread among the track models, especially after\n48 hours, but the NHC track forecast is close to the tight\nclustering consisting of the GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, TVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 14.8N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 15.0N 124.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 16.0N 124.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.7N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 20.0N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 24.9N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  02/0000Z 27.5N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-07-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nThe deep convection associated with Hilary has lost some\norganization since the last advisory, with little or no convection\ncurrently occurring over the western semicircle. Satellite\nintensity estimates range from 45-65 kt, and recent ASCAT data\nshowed winds of at best 50 kt.  Based on these, the initial\nintensity is nudged down to a possibly generous 55 kt.  The system\nwill be moving over progressively cooler water and into a more\nstable environment, which should cause a steady weakening.  By 48\nhours, Hilary is forecast to become a remnant low over 23C waters,\nand the cyclone is forecast to dissipate completely after 96 hr.\n\nThe initial motion is now 305/9.  As mentioned in the previous\nadvisory, a mid-level ridge extending from southern California\nwest-southwestward across the eastern Pacific should steer Hilary\non this general path for the next couple of days.  The forecast then\ngets more complicated due to potential interaction with TS Irwin.\nThe guidance is in less good agreement than earlier, with the\npossibilities ranging from the Canadian model merging the two\nsystems in 72 h to the ECMWF showing them dissipating in close\nproximity to one another near 120 h.  The track guidance suggests a\nwest-northwestward to westward turn for Hilary as Irwin or its\nremnants move around the eastern and northern sides, and the\nofficial forecast follows this scenario.  The new forecast track is\nsimilar to the previous track for the first 36-48 h and then is\nnudged to the south thereafter.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 20.7N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 21.7N 122.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 22.9N 124.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 24.1N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  31/0600Z 24.9N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/0600Z 25.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/0600Z 25.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-07-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nConvection associated with Irwin has changed little over the past\nseveral hours, with weak convection in ragged bands occurring\nprimarily in the southeastern semicircle.  Satellite intensity\nestimates have also changed little since the last advisory, so the\ninitial intensity remains 50 kt.  Some strengthening is possible\ntoday while the storm remains over warm sea surface temperatures.\nAfter that, Irwin should weaken over waters that cool to near 23C\nnear the 96 h forecast position.   As mentioned in the discussion\nfor Tropical Storm Hilary, the model guidance is diverse as to the\neventual fate of Irwin as it interacts with Hilary, with the\npossibilities ranging from the early merger shown by the Canadian\nmodel to the ECMWF scenario of the two systems dissipating\nseparately but in close proximity.  The forecast leans more to the\nECMWF solution and shows Irwin dissipating after 96 h to the north\nof Hilary or its remnants.\n\nIrwin is currently nearly stationary. A northward motion is\nexpected to begin later today.  Then, as the cyclone moves around\nthe eastern and northern side of Hilary, a turn toward the\nnorth-northwest is expected in about 36 h, followed by a\nnorthwestward motion near the end of the cyclone's life.  The new\nforecast track is similar to the previous track through 48 h, and it\nis shifted westward after that in agreement with the various\nconsensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 14.9N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 15.7N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 17.1N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 19.2N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  31/0600Z 21.7N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 25.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/0600Z 27.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-07-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nAlthough Hilary has crossed the 25 deg SST isotherm, the\ninner-core of the tropical storm has remained mostly intact.  Recent\nSSMI and AMSR microwave imagery indicate that deep convection is\nstill present near the center of circulation, and in a band\nextending to the east and south.  IR imagery from GOES-W even\nbriefly showed a warm spot embedded within the shallow to medium\nconvection that surrounds the center.  Given that the cloud pattern\nhasn't changed significantly and an earlier ASCAT-A pass at 0540 UTC\nshowed maximum winds of 49 kt, the initial intensity has been held\nat 55 kt. Despite Hilary's resilience so far, the SSTs beneath the\ncyclone will continue to decrease for the next several days, so\nweakening is inevitable.  The intensity forecast has not been\nchanged from the previous advisory, and shows Hilary becoming a\nremnant low within 48 hours.\n\nAfter days of high uncertainty, the track guidance is finally\ncoming into better agreement.  For the next 12 to 24 hours, Hilary\nshould be steered generally toward the west-northwest or northwest\nby a mid-level ridge located to the north.  After that time, a turn\ntoward the west-northwest or west is expected due to a combination\nof interaction with Irwin and amplification of the ridge.  Beyond\nday 3, the UKMET and ECMWF show the two cyclones dissipating in\nclose proximity to one another, while the GFS still shows the\nsystems merging.  The NHC forecast favors the ECMWF and UKMET\nsolutions for now, but both systems are expected to be very weak\nregardless of how close they actually get.  The new track is just a\nlittle faster than the previous forecast and is close to the model\nconsensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 21.4N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 22.4N 123.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 23.6N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  31/0000Z 24.6N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  31/1200Z 25.2N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/1200Z 25.4N 132.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/1200Z 25.5N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-07-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nIrwin's cloud pattern has not changed much since yesterday. It\nconsists of a low-level center just to the north of a cyclonically\ncurved convective band in the southern semicircle. An average\nof the Dvorak intensity estimates supports a 50-kt tropical cyclone.\nThe circulation is still over warm waters and Irwin could maintain\nthe same intensity for another 12 hours or so. After that time, the\ncyclone will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in gradual\nweakening. Models still disagree if Hilary and Irwin will merge as\nforecast by the GFS, or if both systems will dissipate nearby over\ncool waters as suggested by the ECMWF. The NHC forecast opts for the\nECMWF proposal, but regardless of the solution, both system are\nanticipated to be weak remnant lows or may have even dissipated by\nthen.\n\nToday, I found Irwin basically in the same spot I left it yesterday.\nIt was anticipated that the cyclone was going to be meandering\nfor a while within very weak steering currents, but it appears\nthat this is about to change soon. Irwin will be influenced by the\nsoutherly flow in the wake of Hilary, and the cyclone should begin\nto move northward and northwestward with an increase in forward\nspeed during the next 12 hours and beyond. The track forecast is\nsimilar to the previous one, and is basically on top of the\nmulti-model consensus TVCX and TVCN which have been the models with\nthe highest skill in forecasting Irwin so far.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 15.1N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 16.2N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  31/0000Z 20.1N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  31/1200Z 22.3N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 26.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/1200Z 27.5N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-07-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nThe inner-core of Hilary continues to feature deep convection,\ndespite analyzed SSTs below 24 deg C.  At times during the day\ntoday, an eye or eye-like feature has even been observed in IR and\nvisible imagery.  That said, an ASCAT-B pass at 1722 UTC revealed\nmaximum winds of only 46 kt in the NW quadrant.  Based on the ASCAT\ndata, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt, suggesting\nthat Hilary has finally begun to weaken.  The intensity forecast is\nunchanged and steady weakening is expected until the cyclone becomes\na remnant low, now shown to occur in about 36 hours.  All of the\nglobal models forecast that Hilary will dissipate within 4 days, in\nclose proximity to Irwin.\n\nThe initial motion is 310/11 kt, and Hilary has been slipping a\nlittle to the right of the forecast track today, perhaps in part\ndue to the fact that it has maintained a fairly coherent deep\ncirculation.  A turn back toward the west-northwest is still\nexpected within the next 12-24 hours as the tropical storm weakens\nand interacts with the circulation of Irwin.  The various global\nmodels still differ in the details of that interaction, but\ngenerally agree that both systems will be weak and one or the other\nwill probably dissipate before a merger can occur. Overall, the NHC\ntrack has been shifted slightly to the right to account for the\ninitial motion, but is otherwise unchanged from the previous\nadvisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 22.3N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 23.3N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  31/0600Z 25.2N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  31/1800Z 25.5N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  01/1800Z 25.5N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-07-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nIrwin's cloud pattern continues to be defined by a low-level center\nlocated just to the north of a cyclonically curved convective band\nin the southern semicircle. Dvorak intensity estimates are beginning\nto indicate weakening, and a recent partial ASCAT pass shows maximum\nwinds of 40 kt. However, given the banding-type eye structure\nobserved on visible images, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt.\nThe circulation is still over warm waters, and Irwin could maintain\nthe same intensity for another 12 hours or so. After that time, the\ncyclone will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in gradual\nweakening. Models are now showing that Irwin and Hilary will get\nvery close to each other while dissipating. Irwin is forecast to\nbecome a remnant low by 72 hours and is expected to be dissipated by\nday 5.\n\nIrwin began to move toward the north or 360 degrees at 6 kt. Soon\nthe cyclone will be steered by the flow in the wake of Hilary and\nturn more to the north-northwest and northwest with increasing\nforward speed.  There is no significant change from the previous\nforecast which continues to be very close to the multi-model\nconsensus primarily during the next 3 days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 15.6N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 16.7N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 18.7N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  31/0600Z 21.0N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  31/1800Z 23.5N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 26.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  02/1800Z 27.5N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-07-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nSatellite data indicate that Hilary is gradually losing\norganization.  GOES-16 1-minute visible data show the center on the\nnorthwestern side of a warming central dense overcast.  A\nlate-arriving ASCAT-A pass from 1808Z suggested maximum winds of\nup to 55 kt.  With the degradation in the satellite presentation\nsince that time, the initial wind speed is set to 50 kt.  While\nHilary has been holding its own recently, the cold waters and dry\nstable air mass of the eastern Pacific always end up winning, and a\nsteady weakening of Hilary should begin soon. The intensity forecast\nis close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast and the\nHFIP-corrected intensity consensus.  Transition to a remnant low is\nexpected in about 24 hours due to Hilary moving over progressively\ncolder waters.\n\nHilary is moving a little faster and to the left, now 305/12.  The\nstorm should turn west-northwestward as it weakens and begins to\ninteract with the circulation of Irwin.  There is a reasonable\nconsensus in the models that one or both of the tropical cyclones\nwill dissipate before any merger can occur, and none of the major\nmodels keep Hilary intact through 72 hours.  Thus the only change\nis to show Hilary dissipated at that time, with only cosmetic\nmodifications made to the rest of the forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 22.9N 123.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 23.9N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  31/0000Z 25.0N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  31/1200Z 25.8N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/0000Z 26.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-07-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Sat Jul 29 2017\n\nIrwin had a partially cloud-free region near its center in visible\nsatellite imagery a few hours ago, but that feature has since\nfilled, and cloud-top temperatures have cooled in the central\nregion.  Satellite intensity estimates range widely from 35 kt to\n55 kt, but an ASCAT pass from around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds\njust over 40 kt in the southeastern quadrant.  Based on that data,\nthe initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt.  Although the shear over\nthe cyclone is low and should remain low for several days, Irwin\nonly has another 12 hours or so before it reaches waters colder than\n26 deg C.  Therefore, additional weakening is anticipated after 12\nhours, and Irwin could degenerate into a remnant low as early as 48\nhours while it is over sea surface temperatures of 22 deg C.  Based\non a consensus of the global models, the remnant low should\ndissipate by day 5.\n\nIrwin is accelerating toward the north as anticipated, and the\ninitial motion is now 355/7 kt.  The cyclone should turn\nnorth-northwestward soon and continue accelerating during the next\n36 hours in the wake of Tropical Storm Hilary.  After 48 hours,\nonce the two remnant circulations get even closer together, Irwin\nis likely to turn northwestward and slow down considerably.  There\nis a normal amount of spread among the track guidance, and the\nupdated NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly northeast of\nthe previous forecast on days 3 and 4 to lean closer to the ECMWF,\nHCCA, and the various multi-model consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 16.4N 124.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 17.7N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  31/0000Z 19.9N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  31/1200Z 22.3N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 24.6N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/0000Z 27.4N 132.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-07-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Hilary has continued to decrease in\ncoverage overnight, with only a small area of cold cloud tops\nremaining to the southeast of the center. An average of the Dvorak\nT- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMMS yields an initial\nintensity estimate of 40 kt.  Hilary will be moving into a more\nstable airmass over SSTs below 22C very soon, which should result\nin steady weakening over the next 24 to 48 hours.  Deep convection\nis also expected to dissipate later today, and Hilary is forecast to\ndegenerate to a remnant low within 24 hours.\n\nRecent satellite fixes show that Hilary has turned west-\nnorthwestward or 300/12 kt.  A west-northwestward motion between\na low- to mid-level ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Irwin to\nthe south should continue over the next couple of days.  The latest\nglobal models suggest that cyclone is likely to dissipate before\nany merger with Irwin or its remnants takes place.  The NHC track\nforecast is along the southern portion of the tightly clustered\nguidance and is very similar to the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 23.5N 124.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 24.4N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  31/0600Z 25.4N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  31/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/0600Z 26.3N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-07-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nInfrared and earlier microwave satellite pictures show that\nIrwin remains fairly well organized. An 0308 UTC AMSU microwave\noverpass revealed a curved band over the southeastern portion of\nthe circulation and a mid-level eye-like feature.  Recent ASCAT data\nsuggest that Irwin is slightly stronger than earlier estimates, so\nthe initial wind speed has been set at 50 kt for this advisory.\nIrwin is forecast to move north of the 26 deg C isotherm later this\nmorning, and over even colder waters within the next 36 to 48 hours.\nAs a result, Irwin is expected to gradually weaken over the next few\ndays, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low late\nMonday.  The new NHC wind speed forecast is identical to the\nprevious advisory and close to the various consensus aids.\n\nIrwin has begun its much anticipated northward acceleration, with\nrecent satellite fixes indicating a motion of 350/8 kt. The tropical\nstorm is forecast to turn north-northwestward today and continue to\naccelerate in south-southeasterly low- to mid-level flow in the wake\nof Hilary. In 36 to 48 hours, Irwin is forecast to turn\nnorthwestward and slow down when it approaches Hilary's remnant\nlow.  The dynamical model guidance is tightly clustered through 48\nh, with some spread later in the period. The NHC track is similar\nto the previous advisory and is near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 17.1N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 18.7N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  31/0600Z 20.9N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  31/1800Z 23.2N 128.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 25.2N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/0600Z 27.5N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/0600Z 28.5N 133.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-07-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nConvection has continued to rapidly wane with only a small band of\nmodest thunderstorm activity with tops to -30C restricted to the\nsoutheastern quadrant. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35\nkt based on a blend of available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,\nand UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. This rapid weakening trend is forecast\nto continue since Hilary is now moving over sub-22 C SSTs and into\nan extensive field of stable, cold-air stratocumulus clouds. These\nunfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause Hilary to\ndegenerate into a remnant low pressure system tonight, if not\nsooner.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. As Hilary continues to\nlose its deep vertical circulation, the shallow cyclone should\nmaintain a general west-northwestward motion along the southern\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge until dissipation occurs in 72 h.\nThe NHC track forecast remains along the southern portion of the\ntightly clustered guidance and is close to the previous advisory\ntrack.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 23.9N 125.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  31/0000Z 24.9N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  31/1200Z 25.8N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  01/0000Z 26.3N 131.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/1200Z 26.7N 133.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-07-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nEven though Irwin is crossing the 26 deg C isotherm, it does not\nappear to be weakening yet.  In fact, recent microwave data indicate\nthe tropical storm has a mid-level eye, which has occasionally\nappeared in geostationary satellite images.  The system is still\nproducing a fair amount of deep convection, especially to the south\nof the center.  The latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB are\n3.5/55 kt and accordingly, the initial intensity is set a bit higher\nto 55 kt.  This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with ASCAT\ndata from several hours ago that showed maximum winds near 50 kt.\n\nDespite the recent increase in intensity, Irwin is expected to begin\nweakening soon as it moves over even cooler waters and into a drier\nand more stable air mass.  The storm is likely to become a remnant\nlow in 36 to 48 hours when it will be over SSTs near 22 deg C.  Most\nof the global models show the remnant low dissipating in 4 to 5\ndays.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance,\nand it is largely unchanged from the previous prediction.\n\nIrwin is moving north-northwestward, or 345 degrees, at 8 kt.  The\nsystem is embedded in south-southeasterly flow in the wake of\nHilary, and it is expected to remain in this steering flow for\nanother day or two.  Once Irwin becomes a remnant low, the shallow\nsystem is expected to turn a little to the left and slow down as it\nbecomes steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is\nadjusted a little to the north and east of the previous one, to come\ninto better agreement with the latest consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 17.9N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  31/0000Z 19.4N 126.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  31/1200Z 21.7N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 23.9N 128.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 25.7N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/1200Z 27.9N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/1200Z 29.0N 133.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":38,"Date":"2017-07-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Hilary Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nConvection continues to gradually decline with cloud tops of -20C to\n-25C now located near the low-level center and in the northern\nsemicircle. Although the convective pattern has taken on more of a\nstratiform appearance, an 1840Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated that\nHilary is still a tropical storm based on several 35- to 37-kt wind\nvectors located in the northeastern quadrant. Therefore, the initial\nintensity remains 35 kt for this advisory.  Continued steady\nweakening is expected as Hilary moves over SSTs near 21C and ingests\nstable stratocumulus clouds throughout the forecast period, with the\ncyclone likely degenerating into a remnant low pressure system\ntonight or early Monday.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant\nchange to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC\nmodel guidance is in excellent agreement on Hilary moving\nwest-northwestward for the next 24 hours or so, followed by the\nshallow cyclone turning a little more westward under the influence\nof brisk easterly tradewinds until dissipation occurs by 72 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 25.0N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  31/0600Z 25.9N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  31/1800Z 26.7N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  01/0600Z 27.2N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/1800Z 27.5N 134.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-07-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nAlthough the mid-level eye feature is no longer evident in satellite\nimages, the compact circulation of Irwin is still fairly well\norganized.  The convective pattern consists of a central dense\novercast with fragmented curved bands mostly to the south of the\ncenter.  The Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 3.5/55 kt,\nso the initial intensity is held at that value.\n\nIrwin has now crossed the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will be headed\nfor even cooler waters during the next few days.  In addition, a\nlarge area of stratocumulus clouds are wrapping into the western and\nsouthern portions of the circulation, indicative of stable air\nbeginning to affect the system.  These unfavorable environmental\nconditions should lead to steady weakening and ultimately cause\nIrwin to degenerate into a remnant low in about 36 hours, or\npossibly sooner.  The remnant low is now expected to dissipate by\nday 4, following the global model guidance.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one and in line with\nthe bulk of the guidance.\n\nIrwin is moving north-northwestward, or 335 degrees, at 8 kt\nembedded in the flow in the wake of Hilary.  This motion with an\nincrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two.\nOnce Irwin becomes a remnant low, the shallow system is expected to\nturn a little to the left and slow down when it becomes steered by\nthe low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the\nprevious one, and it lies close to the various consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 18.5N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  31/0600Z 20.3N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  31/1800Z 22.6N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 24.7N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  01/1800Z 26.4N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  02/1800Z 28.1N 132.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hilary","Adv":39,"Date":"2017-07-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Hilary Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nHilary has been without deep convection for over 15 hours now,\nand there is little chance of any convection redeveloping since\nthe cyclone is now over very cold waters.  Thus, Hilary is no longer\na tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory.  The initial wind\nspeed is set to 30 kt, assuming some spin-down of the winds since\nthe ASCAT pass nine hours ago.  The remnant low should gradually\nweaken due to the cold waters and dry air mass.  The remnants are\nforecast to turn westward and slow down in a day or so with most\nmodels dissipating the circulation in a couple of days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 25.6N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  31/1200Z 26.4N 130.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  01/0000Z 27.3N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  01/1200Z 27.5N 133.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-07-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 30 2017\n\nIrwin is one resilient tropical storm.  Amazingly, the cloud\npattern has improved during the past few hours, with deep\nconvection forming and rotating around the center even though the\ncyclone is now over sea surface temperatures colder than 25 deg C.\nA 0002 UTC SSMIS microwave pass revealed a small ring of deep\nconvection that was partially open on the east side, but it also\nsuggested that the vortex is tilted a bit with height.  Since Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T3.5, the initial\nintensity remains 55 kt.\n\nIrwin will be moving from 24-25C waters to 22-23C waters during the\nnext 24 hours, so weakening should begin soon.  In fact, it will be\nquite difficult for Irwin to continue producing organized deep\nconvection in about 36 hours, and that is when the NHC forecast\ncalls for it to degenerate into a remnant low.  Based on global\nmodel fields, the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by day 4, if\nnot sooner.  No changes to the previous NHC forecast were required\nbased on the latest intensity guidance.\n\nThe forward motion continues to increase as Irwin trails behind\nHilary, and the current estimate is 335/11 kt.  A little more\nacceleration toward the north-northwest is expected during the next\n12-24 hours, but Irwin should turn northwest and slow down on days\n2 and 3 as it moves around the remnant circulation of Hilary.  The\nupdated NHC track forecast was nudged northeast of the previous\nforecast after 24 hours to be closer in line with the latest HCCA\nand TVCN guidance, but otherwise no significant changes were needed.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 19.8N 126.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 21.5N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 23.9N 128.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 26.0N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/0000Z 27.6N 131.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  03/0000Z 28.9N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-07-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nIrwin finally appears to be suffering from the effects of cooler\nwater.  Deep convection associated with the cyclone has decreased\nin coverage overnight, but the convection that remains is organized\nin a band over the eastern portion of the circulation.  Dvorak\nT-numbers have started to decrease, and a blend of the various T-\nand CI-numbers yields an initial wind speed estimate of 50 kt.\nIrwin will be moving over SSTs of 22 to 23 deg C during the next 12\nto 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to quickly weaken.\nIn fact, Irwin is likely to degenerate to a remnant low in about\n24 hours, when the deep convection dissipates.  The global models\nsuggest that the low will dissipate in about 72 hours.\n\nIrwin is moving north-northwestward at about 11 kt.  The cyclone is\nexpected to continue on a north-northwestward heading today, then\nslow down and turn northwestward on Tuesday as it moves around the\nremnant circulation of Hilary.  The latest track guidance is in\ngood agreement and no significant change from the previous NHC\ntrack forecast was needed.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0900Z 20.7N 126.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 22.4N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 24.7N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  01/1800Z 26.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/0600Z 27.8N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-31 10:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Six Special Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n600 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nRadar imagery from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D indicates that shower\nand thunderstorm activity associated with the small low pressure\narea over the eastern Gulf of Mexico have persisted and become\nbetter organized overnight.  Earlier ASCAT data showed that the\nsystem has a well-defined circulation and winds of at least 30 kt\nover a small area to the north and northwest of the center. Based on\nthese data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical\ndepression.  The depression is currently embedded within an area of\nmoderate to strong northwesterly shear.  Although the upper-level\nwinds could become a little more favorable for strengthening, the\ndepression is expected to move inland over the west-central Florida\npeninsula later today, and no significant change in wind speed is\npredicted.  After the depression moves over the western Atlantic,\nincreasing westerly shear is forecast to prevent intensification.\nThis scenario is in agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models, which\nshow the system weakening and likely dissipating in 3 to 4 days, or\nperhaps sooner.\n\nThe depression is moving eastward at about 7 kt. The cyclone is\nembedded within the southern portion of a deep-layer trough that\nextends southwestward along the U.S. east coast. This pattern should\nsteer the system eastward today, then northeastward with some\nincrease in forward speed through dissipation. The track guidance is\nin relatively good agreement on this scenario, although there are\nsome differences in how fast the system will accelerate\nnortheastward. For now, the NHC forecast lies between the faster\nHWRF and GFS solutions, and the slower ECMWF.\n\nThe primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy\nrainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next\ncouple of days. Due to the uncertainty in the intensity forecast, a\nTropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the west-\ncentral coast of Florida.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1000Z 27.7N  83.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 27.7N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 28.3N  80.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 29.8N  78.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 31.6N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-31 12:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emily Special Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n800 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nThis Special Advisory is to upgrade the depression to Tropical\nStorm Emily, now located just west of Tampa Bay, Florida. A Tropical\nStorm Warning has also been issued for a portion of the west-\ncentral coast of Florida.\n\nDoppler velocity data from the NWS Tampa Bay WSR-88D radar indicate\naverage velocities of 48-50 kt on the south side of the circulation\ncenter between 4500-6500 ft altitude during the past hour. Using a\nstandard adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent\nsurface wind of about 40 kt. Therefore, the depression has been\nupgraded to Tropical Storm Emily.  Little change in strength is\nexpected until landfall occurs this afternoon, followed by slow\nweakening as Emily moves across the Florida peninsula tonight.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 095/07 kt. There is no change to the\nprevious forecast track or reasoning.  Emily is expected to make\nlandfall along the west-central Florida coast within the warning\narea by late afternoon, and then continue eastward across the\ncentral Florida peninsula tonight, emerging off of the east-central\nFlorida coast Tuesday morning.\n\nThe primary threat with this system is expected to be locally heavy\nrainfall across portions of the Florida peninsula during the next\ncouple of days. However, an isolated waterspout will also be\npossible in the coastal waters within the warning area.\n\nThis special advisory is being issued in lieu of the standard\nIntermediate Public advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1200Z 27.7N  83.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 27.7N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 28.3N  80.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 29.8N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 31.6N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Emily Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n1100 AM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nThere has been little change in Emily's overall structure as seen in\nsatellite and radar imagery over the past several hours. The\ninner-core convection has waxed and waned while the outer convective\nbands and rain shield on the south side of the small cyclone have\nremained fairly steady. Velocity data from the NOAA Tampa Bay\nWSR-88D Doppler radar has been indicating average velocities of\n50-52 kt, with isolated bins of 55-62 kt, just south of the\ncirculation center between 4000-5000 ft altitude during the past few\nhours. Using a standard adjustment factor of 80 percent still\nsupports a surface wind speed estimate of 40 kt.\n\nLittle change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, after\nwhich slow weakening is expected as Emily moves across the Florida\npeninsula through tonight. After emerging off of the east-central\nFlorida on Tuesday, some slow re- strengthening is forecast on days\n2-3 when Emily will be moving over SSTs of 28C and the vertical wind\nshear will shift from northwesterly to southwesterly and decrease to\n10-15 kt. By 96 h, the shear is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt,\nwhich should keep the intensity steady or induce slight weakening\nuntil Emily dissipates in about 120 h. Since Emily is not expected\nto regain tropical storm status before it moves offshore of the\nFlorida east coast Tuesday morning, no watches or warnings are\nrequired for that area.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 090/08 kt. Emily is approaching the\nmouth of Tampa Bay, and landfall along the west-central Florida\ncoast should occur by early afternoon. After landfall, the latest\nmodel guidance remains in excellent agreement on Emily turning\neast-northeastward tonight and moving across the central Florida\npeninsula as a depression, and emerging off of the east-central\nFlorida coast Tuesday morning. A mid-/upper-level trough currently\nlocated over the upper Midwest is forecast to dig southeastward and\namplify along the southeastern U.S. coast by 24-36 h, accelerating\nEmily to the northeast over the open Atlantic through the remainder\nof the forecast period. The new NHC forecast track is just an update\nand extension of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the\nTVCN consensus model.\n\nThe primary threat with Emily is expected to be locally heavy\nrainfall across central an southern portions of the Florida\npeninsula during the next day or two. However, a brief tornado will\nbe possible across central and southern Florida today, along with\nisolated waterspouts over the coastal waters of southwestern\nFlorida.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1500Z 27.6N  82.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 27.7N  81.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  01/1200Z 28.9N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  02/0000Z 30.5N  77.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 32.2N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 35.3N  70.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 37.7N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-07-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nAlthough the structure of Irwin remains well organized, deep\nconvection has been on the decline during the past several hours due\nto the influences of cool, 24 deg C water and dry air.  An average\nof the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and ADT\nvalues from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering\nthe initial wind speed a little to 45 kt.\n\nThe intensity forecast is straightforward.  Continued steady\nweakening is expected due to even cooler waters, and drier and more\nstable air along the path of the cyclone.  The NHC intensity\nforecast calls for Irwin to degenerate into a remnant low in about\n24 hours, and dissipate by 72 hours.  This forecast is an update of\nthe previous one.\n\nIrwin is moving north-northwestward at 12 kt in the wake of\nPost-Tropical cyclone Hilary, and this motion is expected to\ncontinue for about another day.  Thereafter, a slower motion toward\nthe northwest is forecast when the shallow remnant low is steered by\nlow-level southeasterly flow.  The models remain tightly clustered\nand have changed little this cycle, so only minor adjustments were\nmade to the previous NHC track forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1500Z 21.9N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 23.6N 128.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 25.6N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/0000Z 27.2N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/1200Z 28.4N 131.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n500 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nEmily's appearance in satellite and radar imagery has degraded\nsignificantly since the previous advisory, with only weak convection\nnoted near the low-level center. The deepest convection is well\nremoved from the center and lies across southern Florida and the\nKeys. Since Doppler velocity values at any altitude have decreased\nto less than 40 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt,\nresulting in Emily being downgraded to a depression on this\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 070/10 kt. Emily made landfall on\nAnna Maria Island, Florida, around 1445Z. Since that time, the\ndepression has been moving steadily eastward to east-northeastward,\nand this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. NHC\nmodel guidance remains in very good agreement on Emily emerging off\nthe east-central Florida coast Tuesday morning, and then\naccelerating northeastward ahead of a digging mid-level trough and\nfrontal system through the remainder of the forecast period. There\nis high confidence that Emily will not directly affect the\nsoutheastern United States after the small cyclone emerges over the\nAtlantic Ocean. The new NHC forecast track was nudged slightly to\nthe east of the previous advisory track, and follows a blend of the\nTVCN and HCCA consensus models.\n\nSome additional weakening is possible tonight while Emily moves\nacross the central Florida peninsula and entrains more dry air from\nthe north and west of the system. However, once the compact cyclone\nemerges over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic\nOcean on Tuesday, some gradual re-strengthening is expected to begin\nwhile the vertical wind shear is modest at around 15 kt. By 48 h,\nthe shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt, which should act to\ncap Emily's intensity until the cyclone dissipates or merges with a\nfrontal system in 96-120 h. Since Emily is not expected to regain\ntropical storm status when it exits the Florida east coast Tuesday\nmorning, no watches or warnings are required for that area.\n\nThe primary threat with Emily will continue to be locally heavy\nrainfall across portions of the southeastern Florida peninsula\nthrough tonight.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 27.8N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  01/0600Z 28.4N  80.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  01/1800Z 29.9N  78.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 31.4N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 33.0N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 35.6N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 38.1N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":38,"Date":"2017-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nThe deep convection associated with Irwin has been decreasing\nthroughout the day, and it is currently limited to a fairly small\narea near and to the east of the center.  The Dvorak classifications\nhave decreased, and an average of the latest intensity estimates\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of\nWisconsin support lowering the initial wind speed to 40 kt.\n\nSatellite data show that dry and stable air is wrapping into the\ncirculation.  This stable air mass combined with cool SSTs should\nlead to additional weakening, and Irwin will likely become a\nremnant low tonight or on Tuesday.  The remnant low is expected to\ncontinue to spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to 3 days.  The\nNHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and\nit follows the trend of the guidance.\n\nIrwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a\nmid-level high following the path of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hilary.\nThis motion is expected to continue for about another day.\nThereafter, a decrease in forward speed and a slight turn to the\nnorthwest is predicted as the shallow remnant low moves in the\nlow-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is a little slower\nthan the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest\nconsensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 22.7N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 24.2N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 26.1N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/0600Z 27.4N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  02/1800Z 28.5N 132.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nMesonet observations from the area north and northwest of Lake\nOkeechobee indicate that Emily has an elongated surface\ncirculation.  Although some deep convection has redeveloped near\nand to the east of the center, Doppler velocity data from the Tampa\nand Melbourne WSR-88D radars only show winds of 30-35 kt at an\nelevation of about 5000 ft.  Therefore, Emily's maximum sustained\nsurface winds are estimated to be 25 kt, primarily within the\nthunderstorm activity east and southeast of the center.\n\nEmily's center, as seen on radar, has been moving east-southeastward\nfor much of the evening.  However, it seems to have recently turned\neastward, and the initial motion estimate is 095/8 kt.  Emily is\nembedded within the base of a mid-level trough that lies off the\nsoutheastern coast of the United States, and the subtropical ridge\nto the east should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward soon,\nmove off the east-central Florida coast early Tuesday, and then\naccelerate over the western Atlantic during the next several days.\nAlthough all of the track models agree on this scenario, the GFS is\na notable outlier compared to the other models, showing a slower\nsolution that leans more to the left.  Because the other models are\nso tightly clustered, the updated NHC track forecast leans closer\nto them and is a little bit faster than the previous forecast.\n\nThere is low confidence in how strong Emily will get, or what\nexactly it will be, during the next few days.  The global models\nkeep Emily embedded within or near a weak frontal zone while it\nmoves across the western Atlantic, suggesting that the cyclone's\ncenter may not move continuously but rather jump and reform from\ntime to time along the boundary.  These models also do not show\nEmily restrengthening much, even over the warm ocean, and\nphase-space diagrams suggest that the cyclone may become more cold\ncore during the next few days.  On the other hand, the more tropical\nmodels, like SHIPS and HWRF, show a little bit more\nre-intensification.  Given that vertical shear is forecast to\nincrease, and that Emily likely isn't purely tropical to begin\nwith, the new NHC intensity forecast sides with the global models\njust a little bit more than SHIPS and HWRF.  Based on this, Emily\nis forecast to intensify just a bit and become extratropical in\nabout 48 hours.  The extratropical low is expected to dissipate by\nday 5.\n\nThe primary threat with Emily continues to be locally heavy rainfall\nacross portions of the southern Florida peninsula and the Florida\nKeys overnight.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 27.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND OVER FLORIDA\n 12H  01/1200Z 28.7N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  02/0000Z 30.4N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 32.1N  74.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 33.7N  71.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  04/0000Z 36.6N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  05/0000Z 38.5N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":39,"Date":"2017-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 PM PDT Mon Jul 31 2017\n\nIrwin isn't quite dead yet, with a new burst of convection in the\neastern semicircle, despite the storm being over sub-23C waters.\nIntensity estimates are unchanged, so the winds are kept at 40 kt.\nThis burst should be short lived, and Irwin is forecast to lose all\nremaining deep convection tomorrow over sub-22C waters.  The cyclone\nis expected to gradually spin down, and ultimately dissipate in 2 to\n3 days. The NHC intensity forecast remains the same as the last\nadvisory, following the model consensus.\n\nIrwin continues to move north-northwestward on the west side of a\nmid-level high following behind the remnants of Hilary.  This motion\nis expected to continue for about another day, with Irwin predicted\nto turn northwestward and slow down as the cyclone becomes shallow.\nThere is no significant change to the guidance, and the official\nforecast is very close to the previous one.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 23.8N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 25.3N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 26.8N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/1200Z 28.0N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/0000Z 29.1N 132.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n500 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017\n\nRadar and surface observations over east-central Florida indicate\nthat Emily's circulation has become quite elongated.  Water vapor\nimagery also shows that drier mid-level air has moved over the\nnorthwestern portion of the circulation, which has limited the\namount of convection near the center overnight.  Some deep\nconvection is noted along a trough axis well to the northeast of\nEmily. Earlier ASCAT data revealed a few 20-25 kt wind vectors just\noff the coast of Florida to the southeast of the center, so the\ninitial intensity remains 25 kt for this advisory.\n\nEmily has been moving east-northeastward overnight.  The cyclone\nremains embedded within the base of a mid-level trough that extends\nsouthwestward just off the southeastern United States coast.  As\nthis trough lifts out, Emily should accelerate northeastward between\nthe western Atlantic ridge and another mid-level trough that will\napproach the southeast United States in a day or so. The global\nmodels shifted slightly westward this cycle, and the new NHC\ntrack has been nudged in that direction.\n\nThe intensity forecast remains quite uncertain.  Since Emily's\ncirculation has become less defined and is near a weak frontal\nzone, it is possible that that system will be absorbed within the\nlarger trough axis.  For now, the NHC forecast assumes that Emily\nwill maintain its identity and have a chance to restrengthen over\nthe western Atlantic.  Although the shear is not forecast to be\nprohibitive during the next day or so, the current structure and\nnearby dry air suggest any deepening should be slow to occur.  This\nis supported by the global models which do not indicate much\nintensification.  The NHC forecast is a little below the previous\nadvisory and is close to guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean\nPrediction Center.  Emily is forecast to become extratropical in\nabout 36 hours, but it could dissipate or become post-tropical\nsooner than that.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 28.3N  80.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 29.4N  78.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 31.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 32.8N  73.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  03/0600Z 34.4N  70.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  04/0600Z 37.0N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  05/0600Z 38.5N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":40,"Date":"2017-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017\n\nIrwin stubbornly remains a tropical cyclone this morning.  The\nsystems continues to produce a small area of deep convection near\nthe center despite being over SSTs of around 22 deg C.  The\nconvection has gradually waned over the past 24 hours, but recent\nASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds remain around 40 kt.\nIrwin should lose all of its remaining convection later today, and\nshould become post-tropical within the next 12 to 24 hours while it\nmoves over even colder waters.  As a result, the system is forecast\nto gradually spin down, with the remnant circulation dissipating in\n2 to 3 days.\n\nA mid-level high pressure area to the northeast of Irwin continues\nto steer the cyclone north-northwestward.  This general motion is\nforecast to continue this morning.  As Irwin weakens and becomes a\nshallow system, it should slow down and turn northwestward.  The\ntrack guidance remains in agreement on this scenario and no\nsignificant change to the previous forecast was required.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 24.9N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 26.2N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 27.5N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  02/1800Z 28.4N 131.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/0600Z 29.2N 132.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017\n\nAfter an earlier convective hiatus, recent satellite, radar, and\nlightning data indicate that thunderstorm activity has redeveloped\nwithin 20 nmi of the low-level center. Although the small\ncirculation is somewhat elongated northeast-to-southwest, I am\nhesitant to discontinue advisories on Emily at this time in case the\nnew convection persists. Buoy 41010 southeast of the center has been\nreporting sustained winds of 25-29 kt at a 4-meter elevation early\nthis morning, but the initial intensity will remain at 25 kt since\nconvection has only recently redeveloped.\n\nEmily has made the anticipated turn toward the northeast and is now\nmoving 050/12 kt. The depression is embedded in southwesterly flow\nahead of an eastward-moving, deep-layer trough and frontal system.\nEmily is forecast to accelerate northeastward over the western\nAtlantic through the remainder of the forecast period, remain well\noffshore of the southeast and east coasts of the United States. The\nnew official forecast track lies close to the previous advisory\ntrack, and is between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.\n\nEmily is expected to remain ahead of a cold front for the next 24\nhours or so, which could allow for some slight strengthening while\nthe southwesterly vertical wind shear remains in the 10-15-kt range.\nThereafter, the shear is forecast to steadily increase, exceeding\n30 kt by 60 h, resulting in Emily becoming an extratropical or\npost-tropical remnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast\nis identical to the previous advisory, and is similar to the the\nconsensus model IVCN and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean\nPrediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 29.3N  78.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 30.4N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 32.1N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 33.9N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  03/1200Z 35.3N  68.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  04/1200Z 37.6N  62.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  05/1200Z 39.0N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":41,"Date":"2017-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Irwin Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n800 AM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017\n\nIrwin basically consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid\nof deep convection. Dvorak numbers have continued to decrease, and\nassuming that winds have diminished since the last ASCAT pass about\n8 hours ago, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.\n\nThe cyclone is already moving over cold waters of about 22 deg C.\nOn this basis, weakening should continue, and Irwin is anticipated\nto become a remnant low this afternoon.\n\nIrwin is moving toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 kt.\nA gradual turn toward the northwest is expected today as the cyclone\nbecomes a shallow system steered by the low-level flow.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 25.9N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 27.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  02/1200Z 28.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  03/0000Z 29.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Emily Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n500 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017\n\nDeep convection has redeveloped and persisted near and over Emily's\nlow-level center since the previous advisory, with some weak banding\nfeatures having developed in the eastern semicircle. Cirrus outflow\nhas also pushed back westward over the center, an indication that\nthe convection is feeding back into Emily's circulation. An ASCAT\npass around 1435Z revealed a closed circulation and surface winds of\n30-31 kt just east of the center. Also, nearby buoy 41010 has been\nreporting 27-kt winds at a 4-meter elevation for the past several\nhours. Based on those wind data, the initial intensity has been\nnudged upward to 30 kt.\n\nEmily is moving 050/13 kt. The depression remains embedded in modest\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of deep-layer trough and frontal system\nalong the U.S. east coast, and a general northeastward motion away\nfrom the United States is forecast for the next several days. The\nNHC official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and\nlies between the HCCA and TVCN consensus models.\n\nThe aforementioned ASCAT wind data also indicated that Emily is\nembedded within a pre-frontal trough, and surface and upper-air data\nfurther indicate that a weak cold front lies within 60 nmi north and\nwest of the depression. Given the proximity of the front and the\nfact the system is interacting with a sharp upper-level trough,\nEmily could transition to an extratropical low within the next\n12-24h or even open up into an elongated surface trough. Owing to\nthis possible weak baroclinic interaction, little change in strength\nis expected during the remainder of the forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 30.3N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 31.4N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  02/1800Z 33.1N  73.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  03/0600Z 34.6N  70.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  03/1800Z 35.9N  67.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  04/1800Z 37.8N  61.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  05/1800Z 39.3N  54.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Irwin","Adv":42,"Date":"2017-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Irwin Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017\n200 PM PDT Tue Aug 01 2017\n\nIrwin consists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep\nconvection. On this basis, the system has been declared a remnant\nlow in this advisory. Data from a recent ASCAT indicate that\nwind are still 30 kt to the north and east of the center. The low\nis forecast to move toward the northwest about 7 kt toward cooler\nwaters until dissipation is a day or so.\n\nThis will be the last advisory issued by NHC on this system.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 26.6N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  02/0600Z 27.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  02/1800Z 28.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  03/0600Z 29.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Emily","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Emily Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062017\n1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 01 2017\n\nThe center of Emily has become exposed again tonight, with satellite\nimages showing the skeletal circulation well to the west of any\ndistant convection.  The shallow cyclone hasn't really produced any\norganized deep convection in about 24 hours, with only small puffs\nthat quickly fade out due to dry air and shear.  In addition, the\ncyclone is embedded within a frontal zone, and no analysis shows\nEmily with a warm core.  Given these considerations, Emily has lost\nthe requisite characteristics of a tropical cyclone, and is being\ndeclared post-tropical.  Thus, this is the last advisory on Emily.\n\nThe cyclone has taken a turn to the north-northeast but should\nresume a northeast motion overnight ahead of a deep-layer trough.\nThe track forecast has been adjusted a bit to the left based on the\ninitial position only, with the models in good agreement on the\ngeneral northeast course.  Emily should gradually weaken due to\nincreasing shear and dry air aloft, and acquire more extratropical\ncharacteristics on Wednesday.  Dissipation of the low is forecast\nwithin 3 days as it opens up into a trough.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 30.9N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  02/1200Z 32.3N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  03/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  03/1200Z 35.0N  70.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  04/0000Z 36.0N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017\n900 AM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017\n\nFirst-light 1-minute visible imagery from GOES-16 confirms that the\nlow pressure area located a few hundred miles west-southwest of\nManzanillo, Mexico, has a well-defined low-level center.  Deep\nconvection has persisted since yesterday, mainly in the western\nportion of the circulation, and Dvorak Final-T numbers from TAFB and\nSAB are a consensus 1.5.  Based on these factors, the system has\nbeen classified as a 25-kt tropical depression.\n\nThe depression is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an\nupper-level high centered over northern Mexico. The shear is not\nexpected to relax during the next few days, and this should keep the\nsystem weak.  In fact, I currently have no guidance that suggests\nthat the system will ever become a tropical storm.  The intensity\nforecast therefore shows no change in intensity until the system\nbecomes post-tropical in a couple of days due to the persistent\nshear and a drier environment.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the west-northwest (300 degrees) at\n13 kt, though the initial speed is somewhat uncertain since the\ncenter has only recently become well defined.  Since the cyclone is\nforecast to remain weak, it should be steered primarily by the low-\nto mid-level flow associated with the subtropical ridge.  The GFS\nand ECMWF are in fairly good agreement that this will keep the\ndepression moving in a near straight-line heading for the next day\nor two.  After that, the forward speed of the cyclone should slow\ndown substantially while it dissipates early next week. The track\nforecast is very close to the model consensus, TVCN.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 17.7N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 18.3N 110.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 19.2N 112.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  07/1200Z 20.7N 114.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017\n300 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017\n\nThe tropical depression remains strongly sheared from the\nnortheast.  Since the last advisory, small vortices have been seen\nrotating around a larger/primary center that has reformed or\nconsolidated a little closer to the convection.  Due to this\nrelocation, Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB have\nincreased to 30 kt.  Since there are no in-situ or scatterometer\nobservations available, the initial intensity has been raised\naccordingly, to 30 kt.\n\nThere has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning, and\nthere are still no models that show the cyclone becoming a tropical\nstorm.  Based on GFS and ECMWF SHIPS diagnostics, the 850-200 mb\nshear should increase to near 30 kt by tomorrow, accompanied by a\nsharp decrease in available moisture.  Based primarily on the\nHWRF and ECMWF models, the forecast calls for Eleven to become a\nremnant low by 48 h and dissipate by 96 h.  Given the hostile\nenvironment, it is possible that weakening could occur even\nquicker, as depicted by the GFS and experimental HMON.\n\nThe track forecast has been shifted to the west for the first 12\nhours due to the relocation of the center in that direction. Other\nthan that, very little change has been made to the official track\nforecast.  The global models remain in good agreement that the\ndepression will continue generally west-northwestward, steered by\nthe low- to mid-level steering flow associated with the ridge to the\nnortheast.  Since the low-level winds are weak, the depression\nshould slow substantially before it dissipates.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 18.0N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 18.7N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 19.5N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 20.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 20.6N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  07/1800Z 20.8N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017\n900 PM MDT Fri Aug 04 2017\n \nThe tropical depression is displaying a well-defined center of\ncirculation east of decaying cold cloud tops as shown in the\nbeautiful 1-minute experimental visible imagery from the new\nGOES-16 satellite. Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB - along\nwith the character of the tight center - suggest that the maximum\nwinds remain about 30 kt.\n \nHowever, the exposed center of this system is symptomatic of a\nhighly sheared environment due to the 30 kt upper-level easterlies\nimpinging upon Eleven-E.  These shearing winds should not relent as\na strong mid- to upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico will\nremain in place.  Additionally, the tropical depression will be\nmoving into increasingly dry and stable air.  The system should lose\nall deep convection and become a remnant low in a day or two, which\nis in agreement with all dynamical and statistical guidance.\n \nEleven-E is moving toward the west-northwest at 11 kt, mainly due\nto the aforementioned ridge to its north.  As the tropical\ndepression loses its deep convection and becomes a shallow vortex,\nit should drift slowly northwestward or northward in weak low-level\nflow.  The official track forecast is adjusted to the right\n(northeastward) of the previous advisory and is based upon the HCCA\ncorrected consensus technique.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/0300Z 18.6N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 19.3N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 20.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  07/0000Z 21.3N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017\n300 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017\n\nThe center of the depression moved over Socorro Island, Mexico\nbetween 0400 and 0500 UTC.  A Mexican Navy automatic weather\nstation located in that island reported a well defined wind shift\nassociated with the circulation and 20 to 25 kt winds in gusts. A\nrecent ASCAT pass shows a few vectors of 30 kt, and this will be the\nintensity in this advisory.\n\nThe depression has been decapitated by strong upper-level easterly\nwinds, and the low-level and mid-level centers are now separated by\nat least 230 n mi. There are only a few patches of deep convection\nleft. Since the shear environment is forecast to persist or even\nincrease, the NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a\nremnant low in about 12 hours or so.\n\nThe low-level swirl associated with the center of the depression is\nmoving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt around the\nperiphery of a subtropical ridge. Since no changes in the steering\npattern is forecast by global models, this general motion is\nexpected to continue until dissipation in a day or so.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 19.2N 111.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 20.0N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  06/0600Z 20.6N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  06/1800Z 21.2N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017\n900 AM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017\n\nThe tropical depression lost most of its deep convection overnight,\nbut a small burst near the center has occurred this morning.  Since\nthat time, the center has become again nearly devoid of convection,\nbut I can't yet rule out that one more burst could occur later\ntoday.  The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier\nASCAT data, but this could be generous given the lack of convection.\n\nNo change has been made to the intensity forecast.  Vertical wind\nshear remains high, and cloud-drift winds from GOES-W indicate that\nupper-level winds near the depression are between 40 and 50 kt from\nthe east-northeast.  The upper-level winds are not expected to\nlessen, and the available moisture should decrease steadily as the\ndepression moves farther away from its parent disturbance and\ninto a much drier environment.  Combined, these factors should cause\nthe depression to become a remnant low as early as this afternoon.\n\nThe forward speed of the depression has slowed since the circulation\nis mostly limited to the low levels, and the initial motion\nestimate is 325/7 kt.  During the overnight hours that the cyclone\nlacked deep convection, it moved slowly north or\nnorth-northwestward, so the track has been shifted to the right.\nOtherwise, no significant changes to the track forecast were\nrequired, and the cyclone, or its remnants, should be steered\ngenerally northwestward in light low-level steering flow until\ndissipation.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 19.6N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 20.2N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  06/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  07/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Eleven-E Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112017\n300 PM MDT Sat Aug 05 2017\n\nThe center of the cyclone has been devoid of deep convection for\nmost of the day.  A few convective bursts located well to the west\nand northwest of the center have been observed periodically during\nthe afternoon, but they are probably not contributing to the\nmaintenance of the circulation, and do not meet the criteria of\norganized deep convection for a tropical cyclone.  On that basis,\nthe cyclone has been declared a remnant low and this is the last\nadvisory.  For additional information on the remnant low please see\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\nA pair of ASCAT passes around 1636 and 1722 UTC showed max winds of\nabout 25 kt, so the initial intensity has been set to that value.\nThe 1722 ASCAT-A pass also indicated that the circulation may\nalready be opening into a trough.  The remnants should continue to\ngradually spin down over the next day or so before dissipating\nentirely within about 36 hours, if not sooner, as shown by the\nECMWF, GFS, and SHIPS models.\n\nThe post-tropical cyclone has continued to move a little right of\nthe forecast track, perhaps due to the lack of deep convection that\ncould have forced it farther west with the mid- to upper-level\nflow.  Instead, it should continue to be steered by the weak\nlow-level flow, generally north-northwestward or northwestward,\nuntil dissipation.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 20.3N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  06/0600Z 20.9N 112.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  06/1800Z 21.2N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Seven Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n500 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017\n\nSurface and scatterometer data indicate that the broad area of\nlow pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea still lacks a\nwell-defined center of circulation.  However, this system is\nlikely to become a tropical storm before reaching the coast of the\nYucatan Peninsula late tomorrow, and advisories are being initiated\nto enable the issuance of a tropical storm warning and watch for\nYucatan and Belize respectively.  The scatterometer pass and NOAA\ndata buoy observations indicate that the maximum winds are near\n30 kt.  The disturbance has been experiencing westerly vertical\nshear due to a nearby upper-level low and this has been inhibiting\ndevelopment.  Global model predictions show that this low will soon\ndissipate and an upper-level anticyclone will become established\nover the area.  Therefore, strengthening is likely with the main\nimpediment being interaction with land.  The official intensity\nforecast is a little above the model consensus.  It should be\nnoted that the system could become a hurricane between 72 and 96\nhours, i.e. prior to reaching the Gulf coast of Mexico.\n\nSince the center lacks definition, the initial location and motion\nare quite uncertain, and my best guess for the current motion is\n290/10.  The steering pattern for the disturbance/tropical cyclone\nis expected to be fairly straightforward and persistent for the\nnext few days.  A general west-northwestward track is expected to\ncontinue until landfall in mainland Mexico.  The official track\nforecast is generally a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 15.6N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  07/0600Z 16.6N  83.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  07/1800Z 18.0N  85.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  08/1800Z 19.9N  90.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  09/1800Z 21.0N  93.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\n 96H  10/1800Z 21.2N  97.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017\n \nLast-light visible satellite pictures from GOES-13 and GOES-16\nindicated that the low-level circulation of the disturbance had\nbecome better defined and was located near the southwestern edge of\nthe main convective mass.  NOAA Buoy 42057, located about 90 n mi\nnortheast of the center, has reported peak 1-minute winds around 35\nkt during the past few hours and a gust to 43 kt.  Because the\nsystem has developed a closed circulation and well-defined center,\nit is now classified as a tropical storm.  Franklin becomes the\nsixth tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.\n \nThe upper-level outflow is beginning to expand over the western\nportion of the circulation, indicating that the shear over the\nsystem is decreasing.  The global models are predicting that\nFranklin will remain in a low-shear environment during the next\nseveral days, and the only limiting factor for intensification\nappears to be land interaction.  Additional strengthening is\nexpected before the cyclone reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about\n24 hours.  After the system moves over the Bay of Campeche, warm\nwaters and favorable upper-level winds should allow for\nrestrengthening, and although not explicitly indicated in the\nofficial forecast, Franklin could become a hurricane before it makes\nfinal landfall in mainland Mexico.  The NHC forecast is closest to\nthe higher SHIPS guidance at 24 hours, and is near the intensity\nconsensus and HCCA models after that time.\n \nThe initial motion estimate is 295/11.  Franklin is forecast to\nmove west-northwestward during the next several days to the south\nof a mid-level ridge that should remain in place over the northern\nGulf of Mexico.  The track model guidance has trended slightly\nsouthward after 48 hours, and the new NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted in that direction.  The NHC forecast remains near the\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/0300Z 16.4N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 17.4N  84.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 18.5N  87.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 19.5N  89.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  09/0000Z 20.2N  91.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  10/0000Z 20.9N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 21.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Brown\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n500 AM EDT Mon Aug 07 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Franklin has been steadily\nincreasing in both coverage and vertical depth since the previous\nadvisory.  Wind data from a late-arriving 0231Z ASCAT-A pass suggest\nthat Franklin might not have had a closed surface circulation at\nthat time. However, the new GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery\nclearly shows low clouds moving from west to east on the south side\nof the alleged center, which is suggestive of a closed low-level\ncirculation. The intensity has been nudged upward to 40 kt based on\nsustained winds of 39 kt measured at 4-meters elevation from NOAA\nbuoy 42057 located about 110 nmi east of the center.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. The latest NHC model\nguidance remains in excellent agreement that Franklin will continue\nto move west-northwestward along the south side of a deep-layer\nridge during the next 48 hours or so, making landfall along the\neast coast of the Yucatan peninsula in 18-24 hours. After the\ncyclone crosses over Yucatan and moves into the Bay of Campeche by\nWednesday, a more westward motion is expected thereafter as the\nridge currently situated over northern Mexico and the southwestern\nU.S. builds southward. The track model guidance is tightly clustered\naround the previous forecast track, so the new forecast track is\njust an extension of the previous one and lies down the middle of\nthe guidance envelope.\n\nUpper-level outflow continues to expand in the western semicircle,\nand a pronounced poleward outflow channel has developed in the\nnorthern semicircle, which is being aided by a large upper-level low\nlocated north of Puerto Rico. Although UW-CIMSS wind analyses\nindicate that modest westerly mid-level shear is still affecting the\ncyclone, that hindrance is forecast to abate in another 6 h or so.\nBoth the GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the deep-layer and\nmid-level shear to decrease to near zero in the 12-24 h period,\nsuggesting that Franklin could undergo a period of rapid\nintensification right up until landfall occurs. Unfortunately, the\nofficial intensity forecast does not directly reflect that possible\nintensification trend due to the 24-h position being inland over\nYucatan with weakening occuring at that time due to land\ninteraction. Franklin is likely to reach a peak intensity of about\n60 kt or so prior to landfall, and for that reason the government of\nMexico has issued a Hurricane Watch. The cyclone will weaken some as\nit moves over the Yucatan, but re-strengthening is expected after\nFranklin emerges over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche in\nthe 48-72 h period. The NHC intensity forecast remains close to the\nhigher SHIPS guidance at 24 hours, and is near the IVCN and HCCA\nconsensus models after that time.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 17.1N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 18.0N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  08/1800Z 19.9N  90.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  09/0600Z 20.4N  92.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  10/0600Z 21.0N  96.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 21.1N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017\n\nVisible and microwave satellite imagery shows that Franklin's cloud\npattern is becoming better organized with banding features starting\nto appear. Inner-core convection is not very abundant over the\nsouthwest quadrant and the center is still estimated to be located\nnear the southwest edge of the main cloud mass.  Given the increase\nin organization after the 12Z Dvorak intensity estimate of 45 kt\nfrom TAFB, the advisory intensity is set to 50 kt.  An Air Force\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin this\nafternoon and should provide a better estimate of the strength of\nthe storm.  The upper-level environment is becoming increasingly\nconducive for intensification, with anticyclonic outflow becoming\nestablished over the tropical cyclone during the next couple of\ndays. Franklin could become a hurricane before its first landfall,\nbut interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will cause some weakening\non Tuesday.  Thereafter, Franklin will be moving over SSTs near 30\ndeg C, which of course favors strengthening.  A complicating factor\nat days 2 and 3 could be some northerly shear associated with an\nupper-level ridge over northeastern Mexico, as indicated by the\nglobal models.  Nonetheless Franklin should be near or at hurricane\nintensity by the time it makes landfall in mainland Mexico.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is a little above the model consensus.\n\nThe initial motion continues to be west-northwestward or 300/12 kt.\nLittle changes have been made to the track forecast from previous\nadvisories.  The steering environment remains fairly simple, and is\ndominated by a zonally-oriented ridge that should cause a\nwest-northwestward to westward motion for the next several days.\nThe official track forecast is close to the dynamical model\nconsensus TVCN and leans slightly toward the ECMWF at the end of\nthe period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 17.7N  85.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 18.5N  86.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 19.5N  88.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  09/0000Z 20.1N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  09/1200Z 20.5N  93.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  10/1200Z 20.8N  97.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n400 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017\n \nVisible satellite imagery continues to show a fairly well-organized\ntropical cyclone, although infrared images indicate some warming of\nthe convective cloud tops.  Observations from an Air Force Hurricane\nHunter aircraft show that the storm has a fairly broad inner core,\nwhich is consistent with the ragged eye-like feature noted on the\nvisible imagery.  The current intensity is kept at 50 kt based on a\nblend of SFMR and flight-level observations from the aircraft along\nwith sampling considerations.  Franklin has a well-defined,\nsymmetric upper-level outflow pattern, and some strengthening is\nstill expected prior to landfall. Although the cyclone could be near\nhurricane strength at landfall on the east coast of the Yucatan\npeninsula, the broad inner core of the system would argue against\nrapid intensification during the next 12 hours. Weakening will occur\ndue to the passage over the Yucatan peninsula, and restrengthening\nover the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche is forecast.\nAlthough northerly shear could inhibit strengthening somewhat,\nFranklin is predicted to become a hurricane before making\nlandfall in mainland Mexico. The official intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus forecast.\n \nBased on center fixes from the aircraft along with geostationary\nand microwave imagery, the initial motion is northwestward or\n310/11 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains basically\nunchanged.  A mid-level high pressure area near the northwestern\nGulf of Mexico coast should force Franklin to take a\nwest-northwestward to westward course for the next several days.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  07/2100Z 18.6N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 19.1N  87.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  08/1800Z 19.9N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  09/0600Z 20.3N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  09/1800Z 20.5N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  10/1800Z 20.5N  98.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 07 2017\n\nSatellite images and radar data from Belize show that Franklin has\nan expansive and nearly symmetric circulation.  However, recent\nmicrowave data indicate that the cyclone does not have a\nwell-defined inner core, which is characterized by an elliptical\nring of convection that is open on the northwest side.  In addition,\ncloud tops are not very cold near the center, and the deepest\nconvection is located in a band well to the east of the center over\nthe Caribbean Sea.  Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated\nthat maximum winds were near 50 kt, and since the satellite\npresentation has not improved since then, that will remain\nFranklin's initial intensity.\n\nFranklin appears to have turned west-northwestward and sped up just\na bit with an initial motion of 300/12 kt.  A mid-tropospheric\nridge extending across the northern and central Gulf of Mexico\nshould force Franklin west-northwestward and westward across\nthe Yucatan peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche during the next\nday or two, which is handled well by the numerical models.  After\n36 hours, there is some latitudinal spread in the track guidance,\nlikely related to how Franklin's circulation interacts with the\nmountainous terrain of Mexico.  Since tropical cyclones in the\nwestern Bay of Campeche historically have tended to turn a little\nsouthward prior to landfall, the updated NHC track forecast is a\nlittle south of the previous forecast, leaning in the direction of\nthe HFIP Corrected Consensus and the GFS.\n\nGiven Franklin's structure and limited time before landfall, the\ncyclone is unlikely to strengthen before the center reaches land.\nWeakening is anticipated while Franklin takes about 18 hours to\ncross the Yucatan peninsula, but the storm should then begin to\nrestrengthen once it reaches the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche\ntomorrow evening.  It does appear that northerly shear may begin to\nincrease in about 36 hours, but it does not look strong enough to\nprevent intensification.  Continuing the pattern of following the\nHFIP Corrected Consensus and the ICON intensity consensus, the\nofficial forecast shows Franklin reaching hurricane intensity in\nabout 48 hours, and then making landfall on the coast of mainland\nMexico as a hurricane between 48 and 72 hours.  Despite what is\nexplicitly indicated in the forecast, Franklin's low-level center\nis likely to dissipate near the mountains of Mexico, with the\nmid-level remnants continuing westward across central Mexico.\n\nBased on the updated forecast, the government of Mexico has\ndiscontinued the Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan\npeninsula but has issued a new Hurricane Watch for parts of the\nstate of Veracruz in mainland Mexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 19.1N  87.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 19.7N  88.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  09/0000Z 20.2N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  09/1200Z 20.5N  93.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 20.6N  95.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 20.0N 100.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n400 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017\n\nThe Belize Doppler weather radar indicates that Franklin's\ninner-core circulation has tightened up considerably since the\nprevious advisory, likely due to frictional convergence, and that a\n10-15-nmi-diameter closed eye has developed. Radar reflectivity\nvalues have been steadily increasing in the eyewall, and this\ndevelopment trend is supported by infrared satellite imagery, which\nshows deep convection with cloud tops of -75C to -80C now completely\ncovering the radar eye. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt\nfor this advisory based on a typical decay rate for landfalling\ntropical cyclones.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt, based primarily on radar\ndata. A deep-layer subtropical ridge that currently extends across\nthe northern and central Gulf of Mexico is expected to remain intact\nthrough the forecast period, building slightly southward by 48 h and\nbeyond. This entrenched steering pattern is expected to keep\nFranklin moving west-northwestward across the Yucatan peninsula the\nnext 24 h or so, followed by westward motion across the Bay of\nCampeche until landfall occurs in 48-60 h. NHC model guidance\nremains in good agreement on this track scenario, and only a slight\nnudge to the south of the previous forecast track was required due\nto the more southward initial position of Franklin.\n\nAdditional weakening is expected while Franklin moves across the\nYucatan peninsula during the next 15 h or so. The recent inner-core\nstructural improvements are expected to remain in place by the time\nthe cyclone emerges over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche.\nThat, combined with low vertical shear values and a well-established\noutflow pattern, will allow for restrengthening to occur by\nWednesday, possibly resulting in Franklin achieving hurricane status\naround 36-42 h. However, the GFS and ECMWF models are still\nforecasting significant northerly vertical shear near 20 kt to\ndevelop by 36 h and beyond, which could cap the intensification\nprocess or possibly even induce some weakening since mid-level dry\nair entrainment will accompany the northerly shear. However, since\nFranklin is expected to be near hurricane strength at landfall, a\nHurricane Watch for mainland Mexico is warranted. The new NHC\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely\nfollows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 19.3N  88.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  08/1800Z 19.7N  90.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  09/0600Z 20.1N  92.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  09/1800Z 20.3N  94.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 20.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 19.7N 101.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017\n\nFranklin's center continues to move over the land mass of the\nYucatan Peninsula.  Since this area is relatively flat, only slow\nweakening is likely occurring.  The morning sounding from Merida,\nlocated over northwest Yucatan, showed winds near 40 kt just above\nthe surface.  Assuming that these winds are coming down to the\nsurface somewhere within the circulation, the initial intensity is\nestimated to be 40 kt.  Some additional weakening should occur as\nlong as the center remains over land.  A restrengthening trend is\nforecast to begin when the center moves into the Bay of Campeche\nlater today or tonight.  Even though Franklin will be moving\nover very high SSTs while over the Bay of Campeche, the global\nmodels show northerly shear affecting the cyclone as it nears the\nsouthwest Gulf coast of Mexico.  Although this shear could impede\nintensification, Franklin could be near hurricane intensity when it\nnears the coast late Wednesday.  Therefore, it is prudent to\nmaintain the Hurricane Watch.\n\nThe motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt.  A\nmid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north\nof Franklin over the next couple of days.  This should cause the\ntropical cyclone to move west-northwestward to westward until its\nsecond landfall.  The official track forecast is similar to the\nECMWF solution and to the previous NHC forecasts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 19.6N  89.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 20.0N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  09/1200Z 20.3N  93.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 20.4N  95.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 20.3N  97.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n400 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017\n\nVisible satellite images and surface synoptic data indicate that\nthe center of the cyclone is nearing the northwest coast of the\nYucatan Peninsula.  The overall cloud pattern remains fairly well\norganized, with distinct banding features and well-defined\nupper-level outflow.  Based on the assumption that only slow\nweakening has been occurring, the current intensity is set at 35 kt.\nFranklin should begin to strengthen very soon, when its center moves\nover the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche.  The dynamical\nguidance indicates that north-northeasterly shear will begin to\naffect the tropical cyclone when it moves farther west in the\nsouthwestern Gulf of Mexico, which should be an impediment for\nstrengthening. The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS\nand LGEM guidance but close to the intensity model consensus.  Given\nthat it is quite possible that Franklin could become a hurricane by\nthe time of landfall, it is prudent to maintain the Hurricane Watch\nfor the southwest Gulf coast of Mexico.\n\nThe motion continues west-northwestward or 290/10 kt.  A\nmid-tropospheric high pressure area near the northwestern Gulf\ncoast should cause a generally westward motion over the next couple\nof days.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous\nones, and not far from the latest dynamical model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 20.2N  90.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 20.5N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  09/1800Z 20.6N  94.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 20.7N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 20.4N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 08 2017\n\nThe center of Franklin moved off the western coast of the Yucatan\nPeninsula soon after 2100 UTC, and Air Force Reserve and NOAA\nHurricane Hunter aircraft arrived not too long after that to begin\nsampling the cyclone's circulation.  The planes have observed\nincreasing deep convection, and the NOAA aircraft measured a peak\n700-mb flight-level wind of 52 kt within the convection east of the\ncenter.  The SFMR instruments have measured surface winds higher\nthan 50 kt, but these values were either rain flagged or likely\ninfluenced by shoaling effects in the shallow shelf waters off the\nYucatan coast.  Accounting for these considerations, Franklin's\ninitial intensity is raised to 45 kt.  The Air Force plane also\nreported that the central pressure has fallen to 996 mb.\n\nFranklin is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, and mid-level\nridging located over the northern Gulf of Mexico should force the\ncyclone to turn westward by Wednesday morning.  The track guidance\nsuggests that a south-of-due-west motion is possible after 24 hours\nas Franklin's circulation interacts with the mountainous terrain of\nMexico, and the cyclone's center is expected to cross the coast\nWednesday night or early Thursday.  The new NHC track forecast is a\nlittle south of the previous forecast, accounting for the southward\nbend noted in the track models.\n\nThe waters of the Bay of Campeche are around 30 deg C and by\nthemselves should support further intensification.  One inhibiting\nfactor for strengthening could be a gradual increase in northerly\nshear over the system up until landfall, yet many of the intensity\nmodels show Franklin intensifying in spite of the shear.  In fact,\nthe regional hurricane models depict Franklin reaching an intensity\nof 70-75 kt in 24 hours.  Given that the storm is already producing\n45-kt winds after just moving offshore, the NHC forecast lies closer\nto the more aggressive models and shows Franklin reaching hurricane\nintensity in about 24 hours.  Regardless, there is an increasing\nlikelihood that Franklin will be able to reach hurricane strength\nbefore landfall, and accordingly, the government of Mexico has\nissued a Hurricane Warning for portions of the state of Veracruz.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 20.3N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 20.4N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 20.4N  95.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 20.0N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  11/0000Z 19.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n400 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near\n0500 UTC showed 700-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt about 40 n mi\nnortheast of the center, and surface wind estimates from the SFMR\nof 50-55 kt in the same area.  Satellite imagery has shown increased\norganization, with a well-defined convective band that yields\nsatellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on\nthese data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 280/11, a little faster than before.\nA mid- to upper-level ridge to the north and northwest of Franklin\nshould keep the cyclone moving generally westward for the next\n24 hours or so, followed by a south of west motion as Franklin's\ncirculation interacts with the mountainous terrain of Mexico.  The\nnew forecast track, which is nudged a little north of the previous\ntrack, has the center making landfall in the Mexican state of\nVeracruz just past the 24 hour point, followed by a motion into the\nmountains of eastern Mexico.  The new track is in good agreement\nwith the various consensus models.\n\nFranklin is crossing the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche\nand continued strengthening appears likely.  Indeed, the SHIPS\nRapid Intensification Index shows a 40-50 percent chance of 25 kt of\nstrengthening during the next 24 hours.  However, the large-scale\nmodels forecast moderate northeasterly shear to develop during that\ntime, which may slow intensification below rapid levels.  The new\nintensity forecast calls for Franklin to become a hurricane in 12 h\nand reach a peak intensity of 70 kt near the time of landfall.  This\nforecast again lies close to the upper edge of the intensity\nguidance.  After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast as Franklin\nmoves into the mountains of eastern Mexico, and the low-level center\nis likely to dissipate completely by 48 h.  It should be noted that\nsome large-scale models re-form the low-level center over the\nPacific as the remnants of Franklin reach that basin in about 72 h.\n\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii were revised based on a combination of\naircraft, surface, and scatterometer data.  However, Franklin is\nexpected to increase in size, and this requires a northward\nextension of the Tropical Storm Warning on the eastern coast of\nMexico.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 20.4N  92.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 20.5N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 20.3N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 19.9N  98.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017\n\nFranklin continues to become better organized, with increasing\ninner-core convection and banding features.  The initial intensity\nis set at 60 kt based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface\nwinds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.\nObservations from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure is\nfalling, which presages intensification.  Radar observations from\nthe NOAA aircraft indicate that a well-defined eyewall has not yet\ndeveloped, however. The tropical cyclone will continue to traverse\nSSTs of near 30 deg C until landfall, with northerly shear possibly\nimpeding strengthening.  However, the only evidence of this shear at\nthis time is a slight restriction of the upper-level outflow over\nthe northern portion of the circulation. Given the otherwise\nfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment, additional\nstrengthening is forecast up to landfall.  The official intensity\nforecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance.\n\nCenter fixes from the aircraft give a generally westward motion, or\n270/11 kt.  A large mid-level high pressure system to the north of\nFranklin should maintain the generally westward track until\nlandfall in eastern Mexico.  A slightly more southward motion could\noccur while the center crosses the coast, due to interaction with\nthe topography of Mexico.  The official track forecast is close to\nthe model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 20.2N  93.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 20.1N  95.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 19.7N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Franklin","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Franklin Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n400 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017\n\nHurricane Hunter aircraft observations from earlier today indicated\nthat Franklin was very close to hurricane strength.  Since the time\nof the last mission, the system has become better organized, with a\nfaint eye occasionally making an appearance on visible satellite\nimages.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 65\nkt and this value will be used for the advisory intensity, making\nFranklin the first hurricane of the season.  There is some northerly\nshear evident over the system and with several arc clouds evident\nover the outer circulation's northwest quadrant, perhaps some dry\nair is nearby.  These environmental conditions are not expected to\nbe detrimental enough, however, to prevent at least some additional\nstrengthening before landfall tonight.  An Air Force Hurricane\nHunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Franklin a few hours\nfrom now to check the strength of the cyclone.\n\nThe hurricane continues to move westward, with the initial motion\nestimated to be 270/10.  There are essentially no changes to the\ntrack forecast or reasoning.  The flow on the southern side of a\nmid-level high pressure area near the Texas coast should continue\nto steer Franklin towards, and across, the southwest Gulf coast of\nMexico.  The official track forecast follows the latest dynamical\ntrack model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 20.1N  94.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 19.8N  96.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  10/1800Z 19.3N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Franklin","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Franklin Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 09 2017\n\nSatellite images show some increase in organization of the cloud\npattern with very deep convection near the center and outflow in\nall quadrants, suggesting that the cyclone is strengthening. An eye\nhas not been depicted in conventional imagery, but it was noted in\nearlier microwave data. Intensification was confirmed by an Air\nForce plane which reported an earlier peak of 89 kt at flight level\nand a recent peak of 80 kt measured by the SFMR. The flight level\nwinds were lower in the most recent leg. The minimum pressure was\nnear 981 mb near 0000 UTC, but then rose to 985 mb by 0200 UTC.\nBased on reports from the plane, the initial intensity has been set\nat 75 kt. There is an opportunity for Franklin to pick up a little\nmore strength or fluctuate in intensity before landfall tonight or\nearly Thursday. Once the hurricane moves inland over the high\nterrain, rapid weakening should begin. Regardless of weakening, the\ncyclone will likely bring torrential rains with flash flooding and\nmud slides along its path.\n\nFranklin is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The\nhurricane is trapped within the easterly flow around a strong\nhigh pressure system over Mexico and the southwestern United\nStates. This pattern will force Franklin to move on the same general\nwestward track toward the coast of Mexico and then inland until\ndissipation.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 20.2N  96.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  11/0000Z 19.5N 102.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n400 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017\n\nThe center of Franklin made landfall on the coast of eastern Mexico\nnear 0500 UTC with maximum sustained winds near 75 kt based on Air\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter data.  The cyclone is now weakening\nover land, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly\ngenerous 60 kt.  Rapid weakening is expected as the low-level\ncenter moves into the mountains of Mexico over the next few hours,\nwith the low-level circulation expected to dissipate within 24 h.\nThe mid-level remnants of Franklin should reach the eastern Pacific\nin 24-36 h, and re-development is possible at that time.\n\nThe initial motion is 260/13.  A strong mid- to upper-level high\npressure system should steer Franklin or its remnants generally\nwestward across Mexico and over the Pacific during the next day or\nso.\n\nFranklin will continue to bring torrential rains with flash flooding\nand mud slides along its path, and these conditions could persist\neven after the low-level center dissipates.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 19.9N  97.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  10/1800Z 19.6N  99.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Franklin","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL072017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Franklin Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072017\n1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017\n\nSurface synoptic data and visible satellite images indicate that\nthe surface circulation of Franklin has dissipated over\nsouth-central Mexico, not far from Mexico City.\n\nThe remnants are moving westward, or about 260/17 kt.  A strong mid-\nto upper-level high pressure system should continue to steer the\nremnants of Franklin generally westward across Mexico today and\ntonight.  Since the mid-level remnants of Franklin are likely to\nsurvive while moving into the east Pacific by Friday morning, the\nsystem will be monitored for signs of development in that basin.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Franklin.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 19.7N  99.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF FRANKLIN\n 12H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n900 PM MDT Fri Aug 11 2017\n \nThe mid-level remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Franklin moved across\nMexico during the past day or so and induced a surface circulation\nearly this morning near the southwest coast of Mexico. While earlier\nit was difficult to see a well-defined center, satellite images\nsuggest that the multiple swirls seen in visible imagery during\nmidday have consolidated, with enough convection remaining to\nclassify the system as a tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is\n35 kt based on data from ship WDF4764 and a central pressure\nestimate of 1003 mb, making this system the tenth tropical storm of\nthe season.  Although this is the first tropical storm to form in\nthe basin in about 3 weeks, the eastern Pacific is still way ahead\nof schedule since the average tenth tropical storm forms on August\n31.\n \nJova is over very warm water but is moderately sheared from the\nnortheast due to the large high over Mexico.   The storm has about a\nday to potentially intensify before a combination of cooler waters\nand increasing northeasterly shear likely start a weakening trend.\nMost of guidance respond to this environment by showing little\nchange tomorrow, and a slow weakening starting by Sunday.  Jova is\nforecast to become a remnant low by Monday due to marginal water\ntemperatures and continued entrainment of dry stable air.  The\nofficial forecast is close to a blend of SHIPS/LGEM in the short\nterm, and the intensity consensus in the long term.\n \nThe initial motion is 285/12.  A mid-level ridge building westward\nacross the eastern Pacific should cause Jova to turn westward by\nlate tomorrow, and continue that general motion until dissipation.\nModel guidance is in pretty good agreement for a first advisory, so\nthe official forecast is close to the model consensus.\n \nNote that since advisories were not continuous from the Atlantic\nbasin to the Pacific basin, the cyclone is given a new eastern\nPacific name, per WMO RA-IV operational protocols.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  12/0300Z 19.3N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 19.7N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 19.9N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 20.1N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 20.3N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n \n$$\nForecaster Blake\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n300 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017\n\nJova has a disorganized appearance in satellite imagery at this\ntime, with the primary convection displaced to the southwest of the\ncenter by 15-25 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear.  Two recent\nscatterometer overpasses show winds near 35 kt mainly in the\nsoutheast quadrant, so that remains the initial intensity.  The\ninitial radii of 34-kt winds and 12-ft seas have been revised on\nthe basis of the scatterometer data.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/10.  A mid-level ridge building westward\nacross the eastern Pacific should cause Jova to turn westward by\n24 h, and that general motion should continue until dissipation.\nThe track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and\nthe new forecast track is an update of the previous track.\n\nJova should remain over warm sea surface temperatures for the next\n24-36 h.  However, continued northeasterly shear should limit\nintensification during that time.  After that, the cyclone should\nstart to decay as it moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures.\nThe new intensity forecast is revised to keep the system as a\ntropical cyclone through 48 h and then have the remnant low last\nthrough 96 h in agreement with large-scale model guidance. Other\nthan that, the new intensity forecast is only slightly changed from\nthe previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 19.3N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 19.7N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 19.9N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 20.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 20.2N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0600Z 20.5N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jova Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n900 AM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017\n\nFirst-light visible imagery from the experimental GOES-16 satellite\nrevealed that the circulation of Jova is very disorganized.  The\ncyclone is strongly sheared from the northeast due to an upper-level\nhigh centered over northwestern Mexico.  Since the convective\norganization hasn't changed significantly since the last advisory,\nthe intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data.\n\nThere is no indication that the 20-25 kt of northeasterly shear\ncurrently affecting the tropical storm will decrease enough to\nallow for any intensification during the next day or so.  After\nabout 24 h, Jova will move into an environment of lower SSTs and\ndrier mid- to upper-level air, which should contribute to gradual\nweakening.  The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models suggest that deep\nconvection will cease in about 48 h, so the forecast shows Jova\nbecoming a remnant low at that time.\n\nThe center was relocated to the north by about 30 n mi based on the\nfirst-light visible imagery.  As a result, the NHC forecast track\nhas been shifted northward, especially for the first 48 h.  Aside\nfrom the initial position uncertainty, there is fairly good\nagreement among the models that a mid-level ridge extending from\nnorthern Mexico across most of the tropical eastern North Pacific\nwill cause Jova to turn westward within the next 12-24 hours.  Jova\nshould then continue moving steadily westward along the southern\nperiphery of the ridge until eventual dissipation around or just\nafter 96 h.  The official forecast is basically an average of the\nGFS and ECMWF models, which only differ in how quickly Jova\ninitially turns toward the west.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 20.1N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 20.3N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 20.6N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 20.7N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/1200Z 20.7N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jova","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017\n\nThe convective structure of Jova is practically non-existent.  Deep\nconvection is limited to a small burst southwest of the center.\nA pair of ASCAT passes at 1638 UTC and 1732 UTC showed maximum\nwinds of around 30 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity\nhas been lowered to 30 kt, making Jova a tropical depression.\n\nEven though the vertical wind shear is still very high, the rapid\ndecline of convection is a little surprising to me since the SSTs\nbeneath the circulation are above 28 deg C, and the tropical cyclone\nis embedded within an environment of high total precipitable water\nand moderate mid-level moisture.  Given those environmental factors,\nthe NHC forecast assumes that Jova will regain at least a little\nconvection and maintain tropical cyclone status for another 24 h.\nHowever, if current trends continue, the depression could become a\nremnant low sooner than indicated.  After about 24 h, the cyclone\nshould gradually spin down while moving over cooler SSTs and into a\ndrier environment.\n\nSince the center of circulation is completely exposed, the motion\nis now a far more certain 280/12 kt.  No significant changes have\nbeen made to the NHC track forecast, and the depression, or its\nremnants, should continue moving steadily westward, steered by a\nmid-level ridge to the north until eventual dissipation in 3 or 4\ndays.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 20.4N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 20.9N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/1800Z 20.9N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/1800Z 20.4N 127.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 12 2017\n\nLate afternoon GOES-16 visible satellite images showed that the\ncirculation associated with the low pressure located northeast of\nthe Bahamas had become better defined.  Since that time, the\nnight-time microphysics RGB product and other infrared satellite\npictures have continued to show an improvement in the circulation,\nand recent ASCAT data show that the system has acquired a well-\ndefined center. Deep convection is organized in a large curved band,\nhowever the center is located near the western edge of the band.\nNOAA buoy 41046 located southeast of the center reported 25 to 30 kt\nwinds earlier this evening, and the scatterometer data support an\ninitial wind speed of 30 kt.\n\nThe depression is moving north-northwestward or 330/11 kt.\nThe depression should move north-northwestward to northward\naround the western side of a deep-layer ridge over the central\nAtlantic through Sunday night. It is expected to reach the\nmid-latitude westerlies by late Monday and begin to accelerate\nnortheastward ahead of a short-wave trough that will be approaching\nthe northeastern United States.  The steering currents are well\nestablished over the western Atlantic and the track guidance is in\ngood agreement on the forecast scenario. The NHC track forecast lies\nnear the various consensus aids.\n\nThe intensity forecast is more problematic.  The system is expected\nto traverse warm water and remain in a low-shear environment during\nthe next day or so, but intrusions of dry mid-level air are likely\nto limit strengthening.  The statistical guidance and the HWRF favor\nmore significant intensification than the global models, which\ngenerally do not show much deepening.  In deference to the global\nmodels, the NHC forecast is below the consensus, especially later in\nthe period.  The system is likely to become extratropical in 3 to 4\ndays, and the extratropical portion of the forecast is based on\nguidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 25.3N  70.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 27.0N  71.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 29.0N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 30.7N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 32.2N  71.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 36.2N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 41.5N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/0000Z 45.5N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jova","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n900 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017\n\nSatellite images show the exposed center of Jova continuing to move\nwestward with a burst of convection about 50 n mi away in the\nsouthwest quadrant.  Dvorak classifications suggest the maximum\nwinds are still about 30 kt.  The depression should gradually spin\ndown due to strong vertical wind shear, cooling SSTs, and\nentrainment of the stable air mass of the northeastern Pacific.\nModel guidance is in excellent agreement on this environment so the\nnew NHC prediction is very similar to the previous one.  Remnant low\nstatus is anticipated in about 24 hours, although predicting\nconvective trends over marginally warm waters is difficult.\n\nJova is moving faster to the west now at about 13 kt.  A subtropical\nridge should build to the north of the cyclone, steering the\ndepression, or its remnants, to the west or west-southwest until it\nopens up into a trough in 3-4 days.  The global and hurricane models\nare in good agreement on this scenario as well, and the new NHC\nforecast is unchanged from the previous one.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 20.6N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 20.8N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  14/1200Z 20.8N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  15/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/0000Z 20.2N 128.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nSatellite-derived winds from ASCAT passes at 0122Z and 0208Z\nindicated that the tropical depression had a closed surface\ncirculation with peak winds of 33 kt in the southeastern quadrant.\nHowever, those peak winds were occurring in the same area of the\ncirculation where NOAA Buoy 41046, which several hours ago measured\na sustained wind of 35 kt and a peak gust to 43 kt, due to what\nappears to have been cold, downdraft-driven wind gusts based on a\nsharp decrease in the temperature and dew point values. As a result,\nthe intensity will be held at 30 kt for this advisory, in line with\na consensus 30-kt estimate from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 335/12 kt. The depression is forecast\nto move north-northwestward to northward for the next 36 h around\nthe western portion a deep-layer subtropical ridge that is oriented\neast-west along 30-32N latitude. By 48 h and beyond, a vigorous\nshortwave trough currently located over the northern Plains is\nexpected to dig east-southeastward and weaken the ridge along the\neast coast of the United States from the Carolinas northward to New\nEngland. The increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the trough is\nforecast to accelerate the cyclone northeastward, on an optimal\ntrack about midway from the U.S. and Bermuda and keeping it away\nfrom those two land masses. The new NHC tack forecast is similar\nto the previous advisory, and lies close to a blend of the HCCA and\nTVCN consensus track models.\n\nThe depression is expected to remain in a relatively low vertical\nwind shear environment for the next 24-36 hours, but also within a\nfairly dry mid-level moisture environment for the duration of the\nforecast. As a result, only modest strengthening is expected during\nthe next couple of days. By 48 h and beyond, southwesterly vertical\nwind shear is expected to steadily increase to more than 20 kt ahead\nof the aforementioned shortwave trough, reaching 40-50 kt by 96-120\nh, which should act to cap any additional intensification. Owing to\nthe strong shear, the cyclone is forecast to become extratropical by\ndays 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\nprevious advisory, and lies close to the consensus models IVCN and\nICON. The intensity forecast at 96 and 120 h reflects guidance\nprovided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 26.5N  70.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 28.1N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 29.9N  72.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 31.5N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 33.4N  71.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 37.7N  64.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 42.4N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/0600Z 46.3N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jova","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n200 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nThe center of Jova remains exposed based on GOES-16 shortwave\ninfrared imagery. Another strong burst of convection has developed\nsince 0300Z within 60 nmi southwest of the center, justifying the\nmaintenance of Jova as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. Two\nASCAT passes at 0443Z and 0529Z each indicated peak surface winds of\n24 kt in the western semicircle. However, since the scatterometers\nmissed the eastern semicircle, the intensity will be maintained at\n30 kt based on a Dvorak satellite estimate of 30 kt from TAFB.\n\nThe motion estimate remains westward, or 270/13 kt. The initial\nposition had to be adjusted southward slightly based on GOES-16\nhigh-resolution imagery and the two ASCAT passes that just caught\nthe low-level circulation center. Otherwise, there is no significant\nchange to the previous forecast track or rationale. The deep-layer\nsubtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast by the\nbulk of the NHC model guidance to remain intact, driving the cyclone\nand its remnants westward to west-southwestward until the system\ndegenerates into an open trough in 3-4 days.\n\nIntermittent short bursts of convection may continue to develop for\nthe next 12-18 h or so, but on the whole, there should be a general\ndecrease in both the intensity and coverage of any convection. By 24\nhours and beyond, moderate easterly wind shear near 20 kt along with\ndecreasing mid-level moisture and marginal SSTs below 26C should\nresult in steady weakening and a gradual spin down of the\ncirculation. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\nprevious one and the consensus model IVCN, with remnant low status\nexpected in about 24 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 20.4N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 20.4N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 20.5N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  14/1800Z 20.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  15/0600Z 20.3N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/0600Z 19.8N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Depression Eight Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n \nThe overall organization of the depression has changed little this\nmorning.  Visible satellite imagery and NOAA buoy data indicate\nthat center is located near the northwestern edge of the area of\nconvective banding.  In fact, nearly all of the convective banding\nis located over the eastern and southeastern portions of the\ncirculation.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which is\nsupported by subjective Dvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and\nSAB.\n \nThe depression is moving north-northwestward or 335/11 kt. The\ntrack forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The depression is\nforecast to move north-northwestward to northward around the western\nportion of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the next day or\nso.  After that time, the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward\nahead of a shortwave trough that will be approaching the\nnortheastern United States.  As the southwesterly flow increases\nover the western Atlantic ahead of the trough by 72 hours, the\ncyclone should begin to accelerate northeastward.  The track\nguidance is once again in excellent agreement, and only a slight\nwestward adjustment from the previous forecast was required.\n \nThe depression is currently over warm water and within a low\nshear environment, but the mid-level atmosphere is relatively dry.\nThese conditions should allow some modest strengthening during the\nnext day or so.  Vertical shear is forecast to increase by late\nMonday, and increase further in 2 to 3 days, which should put an\nend to any additional intensification.  The system is forecast to\nbecome extratropical in 3 to 4 days, but if it does not strengthen\nit could be absorbed by an approaching trough off the Mid-Atlantic\nand northeastern U.S. in a few days.  The latter portion of the\nforecast continues to be based on guidance provided by the NOAA\nOcean Prediction Center.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  13/1500Z 27.4N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 29.1N  72.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 30.7N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 32.5N  71.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 34.6N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 39.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z 42.5N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/1200Z 47.0N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n \n$$\nForecaster Brown\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jova","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n800 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nConventional satellite imagery and an earlier GCOM-W1 composite\nmicrowave pass show that the fully exposed low-level center is\nbecoming more ill-defined, particularly in the northeastern portion\nof the circulation.  Although, deep convection has persisted well\nto the west of the surface center, tops have generally warmed\nand the overall area of convective mass has been shrinking.  A blend\nof the Dvorak satellite intensity estimates supports holding on to\nan initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory.\n\nEasterly shear of 15 to 20 kt, gradually decreasing oceanic\ntemperatures, and intrusion of a more stable air mass from the north\nshould cause the depression to degenerate into a remnant low later\ntoday. However, brief bursts of disorganized convection may continue\nto develop during the next couple of days.  There are no changes to\nthe NHC intensity forecast from the previous one, and the depression\nis expected to become a remnant low by tonight.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/12 kt.  A\nsubtropical ridge currently anchored over the northeastern Pacific\nis forecast to gradually build toward the Hawaiian Islands around\nmid-week which should cause the depression to gradually turn\ntoward the west-southwest, before opening up into a trough in 4\ndays.  The deterministic and ensemble models agree well with this\nscenario, and the official track forecast follows suit.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 20.4N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 20.4N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  14/1200Z 20.2N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  15/0000Z 20.0N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  15/1200Z 19.8N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/1200Z 19.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone is gradually\nstrengthening.  The banding features have become better established\nduring the last several hours, and the system has become less\nvertically tilted.  The Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT\nvalues from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support increasing\nthe initial wind speed to 35 kt, making the system Tropical Storm\nGert.\n\nGert is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt on the southwestern\nperiphery of a subtropical ridge.  A northward motion is expected\ntonight and Monday while the system rounds the western side of the\nridge, and Gert is expected to be about midway between Bermuda and\nNorth Carolina on Monday and Tuesday. After that time, a\nprogressively faster motion to the northeast and east-northeast is\nforecast as the system moves on the north side of the ridge and\nbecomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates\nin about 5 days.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement,\nand only small changes were made to the previous NHC prediction.\nThis forecast lies near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance\nenvelope.\n\nThe system is over warm 29 deg C SSTs, and it will remain over\nthese warm waters during the next few days.  In addition, the global\nmodels indicate that the upper-level pattern should become conducive\nfor strengthening during the next 36 hours or so.  The combination\nof these conditions should allow Gert to strengthen during the next\ncouple of days.  Thereafter, a sharp increase in west-southwesterly\nshear, drier air, and decreasing sea surface temperatures should end\nthe strengthening trend and lead to extratropical transition in\na little more than 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly\nabove the previous one, but remains on the lower side of the\nguidance.\n\nThe center of Gert recently passed very near NOAA buoy 41047, and\nthat data has been helpful in estimating the minimum pressure of the\nsystem.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 28.1N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 29.3N  72.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 31.1N  72.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 32.9N  71.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 35.1N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 39.8N  59.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 45.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jova","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Jova Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n200 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nStrong northeasterly shear and an unfavorable thermodynamic\nenvironment continue to take a toll on Jova.  The most recent\ntransient burst of deep convection associated with the system has\nrecently dissipated, but it has not been absent long enough to\ndeclare the system a remnant low just yet.  Recent scatterometer\ndata indicate that maximum winds have decreased to 25 kt, and this\nvalue will be used as the initial intensity for this advisory.\nShear, cool waters, and stable air ahead of Jova should continue the\nweakening process, and Jova is likely to become a remnant low this\nevening or overnight. However, brief bursts of disorganized\nconvection could occur over the next day or so.\n\nJova is moving westward or 270/12 kt.  The track forecast reasoning\nis unchanged from the previous advisory.  The cyclone is expected\nto move westward to west-southwestward to the south of a low- to\nmid-level ridge until dissipation occurs later this week.  The\nlatest track guidance and consensus models have shifted a little\nsouthward, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The\nupdated track is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF runs.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 20.4N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 20.3N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  14/1800Z 20.0N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  15/0600Z 19.7N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  15/1800Z 19.3N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  16/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nGert continues to gradually become better organized on satellite\nimagery.  A large curved band feature has formed in the eastern\nsemicircle, with very deep convection.  It still appears the center\nis on the northwest side of the convection, somewhat displaced to\nthe north of the mid-level center.  Intensity estimates are a little\nhigher than the last advisory, so the wind speed is raised to 40 kt.\nGert should remain in a light-to-moderate northerly wind shear\nenvironment for the next couple of days, with anomalously warm SSTs\nand increasing mid-level moisture in the forecast path.  Almost all\nof the historically reliable guidance now show Gert becoming a\nhurricane in a couple of days under these moderately favorable\nconditions, and so does the official forecast. The latest NHC\nprediction is raised from the previous one but remains below the\nmodel consensus, closest to the LGEM model.  Gert should rapidly\nweaken as it undergoes extratropical transition in 3-4 days over the\ncold north Atlantic waters.\n\nGert is moving north-northwestward at 8 kt on the southwestern\nperiphery of a subtropical ridge.  A northward turn is expected\non Monday while the system rounds the western side of the ridge, and\nGert is expected to be about midway between Bermuda and North\nCarolina on Tuesday.  After that time, a progressively faster motion\nto the northeast and east-northeast is forecast as the system\nbecomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies until it dissipates\nin about 5 days.  The guidance has shifted a little bit to the west\nafter recurvature, so the official forecast is moved in that\ndirection.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 28.8N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 30.0N  72.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 31.6N  72.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 33.6N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 36.0N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 41.0N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 48.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Jova","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122017\n800 PM PDT Sun Aug 13 2017\n\nJova lacks sufficient deep convection to be classified as a\ntropical cyclone, so the system is being designated as a remnant\nlow.  Although the low may produce sporadic bursts of deep\nconvection over the next day or two, the dry and stable environment\nshould prevent the system from coming back.  Based on the ECMWF\nmodel prediction, the remnant low should dissipate after 72 hours,\nif not sooner.\n\nThe low is moving westward or 270/12 kt.  A mainly easterly\nlow-level environmental flow should move the system on a westward to\nwest-southwestward track until dissipation.  The official track\nforecast is similar to the previous one.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Jova.  For additional information on\nthe remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the\nNational Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header\nFZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 20.5N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  14/1200Z 20.2N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  15/0000Z 19.9N 123.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  15/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  16/0000Z 19.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  17/0000Z 18.0N 132.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017\n\nAlthough Gert's asymmetric convective cloud pattern has improved\nslightly since the previous advisory, the system remains sheared\nwith the low-level center located near the far northwestern edge of\nthe deepest convection due to deep-layer and mid-level northerly\nshear of 15 kt. Although the satellite intensity estimates are a\nconsensus T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, the initial\nintensity is being held at 40 kt due to the low-level center having\nbecome more exposed since those 0600 UTC intensity estimates.\n\nGert has maintained a north-northwestward motion or 345/08 kt. There\nare significant changes to the previous track forecast or reasoning.\nThe small cyclone is expected to turn northward shortly and then\nturn toward the north-northeast by tonight, moving through a break\nin the subtropical ridge roughly midway between the U.S. east coast\nand Bermuda on Tuesday. By 48 h, Gert is forecast to steadily\naccelerate northeastward over the north Atlantic through the\nremainder of the forecast period ahead of a strong deep-layer\ntrough. The latest guidance has again shifted a little bit to the\nwest after recurvature, so the official forecast was nudged in that\ndirection slightly, but remains on the far eastern edge of the\nguidance envelope.\n\nGert should continue to be affected by moderate northerly vertical\nwind shear and dry mid-level air for the next 24-30 h, so only\nslight strengthening is anticipated despite the very warm SSTs\nbeneath the cyclone. By 36-48h, a window of opportunity for more\nsignificant strengthening is expected when the shear decreases to\nless than 10 kt after the cyclone begins to recurve, with Gert\npossibly becoming a hurricane by 48 h. However, the intensification\ntrend is expected to be short-lived due to the vertical wind shear\nshifting to southwesterly and increasing to more than 30 kt by 60 h\nand beyond. By 72 h, Gert will be moving over ocean temperatures of\n20 deg C and colder, which should induce and sustain extratropical\ntransition. Gert's intensity is held to near-hurricane strength at\n72 h due to the system getting a baroclinic kick when the cyclone\nmoves underneath a favorable region of the upper-level jetstream.\nHowever, rapid weakening is expected by 96 h when the cyclone is\nmoving over 15 deg C SSTs, with the system being absorbed on day 5\nby a larger extratropical low pressure system over the far north\nAtlantic. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory, and is lower than the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.\nThis is due to the HWRF model creating a high bias in those models\ncaused by an unrealistic forecast of Gert becoming a category 4\nhurricane in 72 h when the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of 25\ndeg C or colder and in shear conditions greater than 35-40 kt.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 29.7N  72.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 30.9N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 32.7N  71.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 34.9N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 37.3N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 42.7N  52.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/0600Z 49.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017\n\nGert has become better organized this morning.  A recent 1336 UTC\nGMI overpass shows a large band of convection wrapping around the\ncirculation from the southwest to the northwest quadrant.  However,\nimagery from the GMI overpass, as well as an earlier SSMIS overpass,\nsuggest that the mid-level center is displaced somewhat south or\nsoutheast of the low-level center, due to continued northerly shear\nof about 15 kt. Based on the improved structure and increased\nsubjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the initial\nintensity has been raised to 50 kt.\n\nGert is now moving toward the north, and the initial motion estimate\nis 360/07 kt.  Very little change has been made to the track\nforecast.  Gert should continue to move around the western\nperiphery of the subtropical ridge for the next day or so, before\nrapidly accelerating eastward ahead of a trough.  Since Gert has\nalready turned northward, the NHC forecast is on the eastern side\nof the guidance envelope for the first 48 h, but very near the\nmulti-model consensus after that time.\n\nDespite the presence of moderate northerly vertical wind shear,\nthere is good agreement among the intensity guidance that Gert will\ncontinue to strengthen for the next 48 h.  The HWRF is an outlier\nin showing Gert becoming a major hurricane around that time, while\nDSHP, LGEM, and CTCI only forecast modest intensification.  Since\nSHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF suggest that the shear will\nnever decrease below 10 kt, the NHC forecast gives more weight to\nthe modest intensification scenario.  All of the global models show\nextratropical transition (ET) beginning around 48 h, and completing\nby about 72 h.  After ET completes, Gert is still expected to\nsteadily weaken before being absorbed by a larger extratropical low\nin about 4 or 5 days.\n\nThe 72 h and 96 h track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts\nincorporated guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 30.3N  72.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 31.5N  72.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 33.4N  71.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 35.8N  68.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 38.4N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 43.0N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/1200Z 50.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Gert Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Gert has continued to improve today.\nConvective banding has increased around the center, and a large\nbanded eye has appeared in recent visible satellite pictures.\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS supported\nan intensity of around 55 kt at 18z, but due to the continued\nincrease in organization, the initial wind speed is set at 60 kt\nfor this advisory. Although there is some light northerly shear\nover the system, it should not prevent additional strengthening\nduring the next day or so while Gert remains over SSTs of 28 to\n29 deg C.  Gert is expected to become a hurricane within 12 hours,\nand the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for a bit higher peak\nintensity than before.  The NHC forecast is a little above the\nstatistical guidance and calls for peak intensity a little sooner\nthan most of the guidance.  The HWRF continues to be very bullish\nin bringing the system to major hurricane status, but since it\nshows peak intensity well after the system is expected to encounter\nwesterly shear and cooler SSTs, less weight has been placed on that\nscenario.  Gert is expected to complete extratropical transition\nwithin 72 hours, then gradually weaken over the North Atlantic\nbefore it merges with a larger extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.\n\nGert has been moving more slowly than expected today while it has\nbeen rounding the western portion of the ridge.  The storm is\nexpected to turn north-northeastward and begin to accelerate\nTuesday ahead of a shortwave trough approaching the northeastern\nUnited States.  The track guidance continues to be in excellent\nagreement, but is generally slower than before.  As a result, little\ncross-track change was required in the NHC track through 72 h, but\nthe new forecast is slower than the previous one to account for the\nlatest trend in the latest guidance.\n\nSwells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.\nThese swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local National\nWeather Service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 30.6N  72.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 31.6N  72.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 33.3N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 35.6N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 44.5N  48.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  18/1800Z 52.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2017\n\nSatellite images show that Gert has developed an eye, although the\nconvection is weak in the western eyewall.  Still, microwave images\nshow a healthy inner-core structure, with plenty of deep convection\nin the eastern eyewall.  Satellite intensity estimates unanimously\nsupport making Gert a hurricane on this advisory, and the initial\nwind speed is set to 65 kt, close to the TAFB figure.\n\nSome light or moderate northerly shear is forecast to continue to\naffect Gert for the next day or so, which might limit the\nintensification rate.  On Wednesday, however, the shear is forecast\nto drop off as Gert accelerates northeastward over warm waters with\na large increase in upper-level divergence also noted.  This is\ntypically a favorable environment for intensification, and the\nofficial forecast is raised from the previous one, lying between\nthe model consensus IVCN and the higher corrected consensus aids.\nGert is expected to complete extratropical transition within 72\nhours, then gradually weaken over the North Atlantic before it\nmerges with a larger extratropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days.\n\nGert continues to move northward at about 7 kt.  The storm is\nexpected to turn north-northeastward and begin to accelerate\nTuesday ahead of a shortwave trough approaching the northeastern\nUnited States.  Like the last cycle, the track guidance continues to\nbe in excellent agreement, but is generally slower than before.\nThe new forecast is on the fast side of the guidance, assuming that\nGert is a strong hurricane that stays vertically coherent in the\nfaster mid/upper-level flow.\n\nSwells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.\nThese swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions.  Please consult products from your local National\nWeather Service office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 31.2N  72.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 32.3N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 34.3N  70.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 36.6N  66.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 39.3N  60.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 46.0N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/0000Z 52.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017\n\nAfter a period of intensification several hours ago, recent\nsatellite images show that the cloud pattern has deteriorated a\nlittle bit. The eye is no longer discernible, and the center is now\nlocated to the west of an area of very deep convection. Dvorak\nnumbers still support an initial intensity of 65 kt.  Gert has an\nopportunity to gather some strength in the next day or so after\nrecurvature. The new NHC forecast is not as aggressive as the\nprevious one, and it follows very closely the intensity consensus.\nOnly the HWRF model significantly strengthens the cyclone. After two\ndays, Gert will be completely embedded within the mid-latitude\nwesterlies and should become a post-tropical cyclone.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 360\ndegrees at 10 kt. Gert is being steered northward by the flow around\nthe western edge of the subtropical ridge. The cyclone should then\nturn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed later today\nas it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow. The NHC track\nforecast is similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the\ntight guidance envelope.\n\nSwells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.\nThese swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions.  Please consult products from your local National\nWeather Service office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 31.8N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 33.3N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 35.5N  68.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 37.8N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 40.0N  57.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 46.5N  41.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/0600Z 52.0N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017\n\nNortherly shear of about 20 kt was inhibiting Gert overnight.  A\npair of microwave passes around 0900 UTC showed that the mid-level\ncenter was displaced about 20 n mi south-southeast of the\nlow-level center.  Since the time of the earlier microwave passes,\noutflow in the northwest quadrant has become re-established,\nsuggesting that the shear may be lessening.  The initial intensity\nhas been held at 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification\nfrom TAFB.  Environmental diagnostics from SHIPS indicate that the\nshear should continue to decrease for about the next 24 h, which\nshould allow for a brief window of intensification.  The GFS, ECMWF,\nand UKMET all indicate that extratropical transition will begin\nsometime between 36 h and 48 h, while the hurricane crosses a strong\nSST gradient and the shear increases above 30 kt.  Gert is forecast\nto become fully extratropical about a day later.\n\nThe initial motion is 015/9 kt.  Gert has finally begun to round\nthe western edge of the subtropical ridge, and should begin\naccelerating northeastward later today.  The track guidance is\ntightly clustered for the first 48 h of the forecast.  Beyond two\ndays, there is some along-track spread in the models.  The GFS\nforecasts that Gert will move faster and remain separated from a\nlarge extratropical low for nearly 5 days, while the ECMWF and UKMET\nforecast Gert to move slower, causing it to merge with the\nextratropical low sooner.  The official forecast splits the\ndifference between these scenarios for now and indicates that Gert\nwill be absorbed by the extratropical low shortly after 96 h.\n\nSwells from Gert are expected to spread northward along the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the United States during the next few days.\nThese swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions.  Please consult products from your local National\nWeather Service office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 32.8N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 34.4N  70.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 36.7N  67.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 38.9N  61.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 41.3N  53.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 48.8N  38.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/1200Z 54.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017\n\nGert has exhibited hints of an eye in visible satellite imagery\nduring the day, but that feature has not appeared in infrared\nimages.  Still, the satellite presentation has improved since the\nlast advisory, and the initial intensity is set at 70 kt based on a\nblend of final-T Dvorak numbers of T4.0 from TAFB and SAB and T4.7\nfrom the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Vertical shear is expected to be relatively\nlow--less than 20 kt--for the next 24 hours or so, which should\nallow Gert to strengthen a little more over the warm waters south\nof the northern wall of the Gulf Stream.  The NHC forecast has been\nincreased slightly through 36 hours to account for the latest\nintensity guidance, although it is still not as high as what is\nshown by models such as HWRF and the HFIP Corrected Consensus.\nSouthwesterly shear increases substantially after 48 hours, which\nshould cause Gert to weaken, and the cyclone is also expected to\nbecome extratropical by 72 hours.  There is a lot of uncertainty on\nthe ultimate fate of the extratropical low, but most of the global\nmodels keep Gert as a separate entity at least through day 4.\n\nGert's trajectory continues to veer as it rounds the western edge\nof the subtropical ridge, and the initial motion is 020/10 kt.\nGert will soon become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies,\nsandwiched between a mid-oceanic high and a large cut-off low over\neastern Canada.  This pattern will cause Gert to turn northeastward\nand accelerate over the northwestern Atlantic during the next 48-72\nhours.  The cyclone will then likely slow down and turn more\nnorthward by day 4 as it interacts with the aforementioned cut-off\nlow.  There is very little cross-track spread among the track\nmodels, but the latest suite of guidance has slowed down slightly\nfrom previous runs.  As a result, the new NHC forecast is just a\nlittle slower than the previous one, near the various multi-model\nconsensus aids.\n\nSwells from Gert should spread northward along the mid-Atlantic\ncoast of the United States during the next few days, with the first\nimpacts expected to occur tonight.  These swells are likely to\nproduce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local National Weather Service office.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 33.7N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 35.3N  69.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 37.4N  64.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 39.7N  58.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 42.9N  50.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 51.5N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  19/1800Z 55.5N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2017\n\nGert looked a bit ragged in satellite imagery earlier this evening,\nwith the eye disappearing and microwave data showing the center to\nbe in the northwest portion of the convective mass.  Since then, the\ncloud pattern has become better organized, with a well-defined\nconvective band now present around the center. Satellite intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 77 kt, and thus the\ninitial intensity is increased to 75 kt.\n\nGert continues to recurve into the westerlies between the\nsubtropical ridge and a baroclinic zone extending from North\nCarolina to Nova Scotia, and the initial motion is now 035/13.  The\nhurricane should accelerate northeastward during the next 24-48 h,\npassing well south of the Canadian Maritimes and Atlantic\nProvinces.  After that, the cyclone will then likely slow down and\nturn more northward by day 4 as it interacts with a large\nbaroclinic low moving eastward from northeast Canada.  The track\nguidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is\nlittle changed from the previous track.\n\nConditions appear conducive for additional strengthening during the\nnext 24 h as Gert remains over warm water and in a light/moderate\nvertical shear environment.  The new intensity forecast raises the\npeak into to 85 kt, which is on the low side of the intensity\nguidance.  After that time, Gert should move over cooler water and\nbegin to merge with the above-mentioned baroclinic zone.  The\ncyclone is now forecast to become extratropical in 48 h, to\npersist as an extratropical low through 96 h, and then be absorbed\nby the baroclinic low by 120 h.   As mentioned in the previous\nadvisory, the large-scale models suggest the possibility that Gert\nmay survive as its own entity beyond 96 h, and a 120 h point could\nbe added in later advisories.\n\nSwells from Gert should spread northward along the mid-Atlantic\ncoast of the United States during the next few days, with the first\nimpacts expected to occur tonight.  These swells are likely to\nproduce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local National Weather Service office.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 34.8N  70.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 36.3N  67.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 38.5N  62.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 41.1N  54.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 44.9N  46.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/0000Z 53.0N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  20/0000Z 55.5N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 AM AST Wed Aug 16 2017\n\nGert has strengthened a little more during the last several hours.\nThere have been some hints of an eye in infrared satellite images\novernight, and the center is embedded beneath a large area of cold\ncloud tops.  The latest Dvorak classifications are both 4.5/77 kt\nfrom TAFB and SAB, and recent ADT values are a little higher.  Based\non these estimates, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 80\nkt.  The hurricane is forecast to strengthen a little more during\nthe next 12 to 24 hours while it remains over the warm waters of the\nGulf Stream and in a favorable upper-level wind pattern.  After that\ntime, sharply colder waters, a significant increase in west-\nsouthwesterly shear, and drier air should end the strengthening\ntrend and cause weakening.  The models are in good agreement in\nshowing Gert losing its tropical characteristics in 36 to 48 hours.\nThe NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.\n\nGert continues to pick up speed, and it is now moving northeastward\nat 18 kt.  The hurricane is located between a subtropical ridge to\nits southeast and a large deep-layer low pressure system to its\nnorthwest.  Gert is expected to turn to the east-northeastward and\naccelerate some more during the next couple of days while it becomes\nembedded in the fast mid-latitude flow.  Beyond a couple of days,\nwhen Gert is post-tropical, the system is forecast to slow down and\nmove more erratically while it interacts and ultimately merges with\nanother extratropical low.  The NHC track forecast lies closest to\nthe various consensus aids.  The post-tropical portion of the\ntrack, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are based on guidance\nprovided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nSwells from Gert are beginning to reach portions of the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the United States, and are expected to spread\nnorthward to New England and Atlantic Canada during the next couple\nof days.  These swells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather\nforecast office for more information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 36.0N  68.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 37.7N  64.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 40.0N  58.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 43.2N  50.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 47.0N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/0600Z 54.0N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  20/0600Z 55.5N  27.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  21/0600Z 57.5N  12.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 AM AST Wed Aug 16 2017\n\nGOES-16 1-minute visible imagery has shown Gert's eye coming and\ngoing over the past several hours, and for the first time a\ndistinct warm spot has appeared in infrared images.  However,\nsubjective Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six hours ago, and\nthe objective ADT has actually decreased a bit.  The initial\nintensity is therefore held at 80 kt.  Gert has another 18-24 hours\nbefore it reaches significantly colder waters north of the Gulf\nStream, so the cyclone still has the opportunity for a little more\nstrengthening later today and this evening.  Southwesterly shear is\nexpected to begin increasing tonight, and the higher shear and\ncolder water should cause a steady weakening trend to begin on\nThursday.  The global model fields indicate that Gert should be\nfully extratropical, embedded in a frontal zone, within 48 hours,\nand that is reflected in the official forecast.  There is still a\nlot of uncertainty regarding when Gert will be absorbed by another\nlarger extratropical cyclone, but most of the guidance tends to\nagree that it should be absorbed by day 5 over the north Atlantic.\n\nGert's forward speed continues to increase, and the hurricane is\nnow moving toward the northeast with a motion of 055/22 kt.  Gert\nis embedded in mid-latitude westerly flow between a mid-level high\ncentered east of Bermuda and a large cut-off low over eastern\nCanada, and this pattern should force the cyclone on a fast\nnortheastward pace over the north Atlantic at least for the next 72\nhours.  A slower motion is forecast by day 4 once post-tropical\nGert interacts with the large cut-off low moving east of Atlantic\nCanada.  There was very little change in the latest track guidance,\nand no significant deviations from the previous NHC forecast were\nrequired on this cycle.  The post-tropical portion of the track,\nintensity, and wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance from NOAA's\nOcean Prediction Center.\n\nSwells from Gert are affecting portions of the mid-Atlantic coast of\nthe United States, and are expected to spread northward to New\nEngland and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two.  These\nswells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast\noffice for more information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 37.4N  65.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 39.0N  61.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 41.8N  53.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 45.5N  45.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 49.5N  38.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/1200Z 55.0N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  20/1200Z 55.0N  26.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017\n\nCloud tops with temperatures colder than -65 deg C have wrapped\nalmost entirely around Gert's center, although eye temperatures\nhave been fluctuating all day.  Dvorak intensity estimates vary\nwidely, from T4.5 from TAFB to around T5.5 from the UW-CIMSS ADT,\nand since a warm eye has been unable to persist for an extended\nperiod of time, the initial intensity is raised conservatively to\n85 kt.  This makes Gert the first category 2 hurricane of the\nseason.  The window of opportunity for additional strengthening\nappears to be closing.  Gert will be moving over the colder waters\nnorth of the Gulf Stream in about 12-18 hours, and southwesterly\nshear will be increasing to well over 30 kt in about 12 hours.\nTherefore, a fast weakening trend is forecast to begin on Thursday,\nwith Gert becoming a tropical storm by 36 hours.  The FSU\nphase-space diagrams indicate that Gert should be extratropical\njust after 36 hours, and the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all have the\ncyclone being absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north\nAtlantic by day 4.\n\nAcceleration continues with the initial motion now 055/27 kt.  With\nGert firmly embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, the\nhurricane's forward speed should increase for the next 24 hours,\nfollowed by some deceleration as the cyclone begins to interact\nwith a large cut-off low moving east of Atlantic Canada.  Most of\nthe track guidance is a little faster on this cycle, although the\nECMWF is significantly slower.  The new NHC forecast is nudged a\nlittle faster from 12-48 hours, but not too fast given the latest\nECMWF solution.  The post-tropical portion of the track, intensity,\nand wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance from NOAA's Ocean\nPrediction Center.\n\nSwells from Gert are affecting portions of the mid-Atlantic coast of\nthe United States, and are expected to spread northward to New\nEngland and Atlantic Canada during the next day or two.  These\nswells are likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions. Please consult products from your local weather forecast\noffice for more information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 38.7N  62.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 40.7N  56.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 44.3N  48.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 48.3N  40.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 51.6N  35.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  19/1800Z 54.3N  32.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 PM AST Wed Aug 16 2017\n\nGert has maintained an eye with very cold cloud tops mainly over\nthe northern and western portions of the circulation, which is\nrather remarkable for a system at 40N latitude. The current\nintensity is set a little higher, to 90 kt, in agreement with the\nlatest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone has\ncontinued to traverse warm waters, but very soon will encounter a\nmuch cooler ocean to the north of the Gulf Stream.  Thus, rapid\nweakening is forecast, similar to the latest model consensus.  In 36\nhours the global model guidance depicts the system becoming embedded\nin a distinct baroclinic zone, so Gert should have become an\nextratropical storm by that time.  The extratropical cyclone is\nforecast to merge with another large low over the north Atlantic\nafter 72 hours.\n\nGert has continued to accelerate and is now moving\neast-northeastward near 32 kt.  A slightly faster motion is\nexpected on Thursday in the strong flow to the southeast of a\nmid-tropospheric cyclone nearing Newfoundland.  Later in the\nforecast period, the post-tropical system is likely to turn\nnortheastward and slow down significantly while it interacts with\nthe other large low.\n\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated\nguidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nSwells from Gert should continue to affect the northeast U.S. coast\nand Atlantic Canada through Thursday.  These swells are likely to\nproduce dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Please consult\nproducts from your local weather forecast office for more\ninformation.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 40.1N  58.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 42.6N  52.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 46.5N  43.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 50.5N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/0000Z 52.5N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  20/0000Z 53.5N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017\n\nThe expected weakening trend of Gert appears to have started.  The\neye of the hurricane is no longer evident in satellite images, and\nthe convective pattern has become less symmetric during the past\nseveral hours.  The initial wind speed is lowered a little to 85 kt,\nin agreement with a blend of the Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers\nfrom TAFB and SAB.  The hurricane is crossing the north wall of the\nGulf Stream current, and it will soon be moving over substantially\ncolder water.  These colder waters combined with a significant\nincrease in wind shear and drier air should cause rapid weakening\nduring the next day or so.  Gert is now forecast to lose its\ntropical characteristics in about 24 hours, when it will be over\nvery cool sea surface temperatures of about 16 deg C.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and it\ngenerally follows the GFS model.\n\nGert is embedded in fast mid-latitude flow and it is racing\neast-northeastward over the central Atlantic at 34 kt.  A decrease\nin forward speed and a slight turn to the northeast is expected\nduring the next couple of days while Gert interacts with a large\nextratropical low to the east of Atlantic Canada.  The global\nmodels show this extratropical system absorbing, or merging with,\nGert in about 3 days.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little\nto the right of the previous one to come into better agreement with\nthe latest consensus models.\n\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated\nguidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nSwells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the\nnortheastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight.  These swells\nare likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather forecast office for\nmore information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 41.7N  54.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 44.2N  47.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 48.0N  40.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  18/1800Z 50.7N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/0600Z 52.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Gert Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017\n\nThe convective structure of Gert has rapidly deteriorated during\nthe morning hours due to very cold SSTs and vertical wind shear\nexceeding 40 kt. The hurricane still has a little deep convection\nin the northeast quadrant, but the low-level circulation appears to\nhave become somewhat elongated along a south-southwest,\nnorth-northeast axis. Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB\nand SAB have decreased, and the initial intensity has been decreased\naccordingly, to 70 kt. Since there is a lack of recent\nscatterometer or buoy observations near the center, the intensity\nestimate is a little more uncertain than normal.\n\nGert continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the initial\nmotion estimate is 060/35 kt. Very little change has been made to\nthe track or intensity forecast. The cyclone is quickly becoming\nextratropical, and the transition process should complete later\ntoday. Gert should continue to steadily spin down while moving\nquickly toward the northeast for the next day or so ahead of a large\nextratropical low currently centered near the Gulf of St. Lawrence.\nAn interaction of the two cyclones should result in the eventual\nabsorption or dissipation of Gert shortly after 48 h. The track,\nintensity, and wind radii forecasts have incorporated guidance from\nNOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nSwells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the\nnortheastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight. These swells\nare likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather forecast office for\nmore information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 43.2N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 46.0N  43.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  18/1200Z 49.3N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  19/0000Z 51.3N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/1200Z 52.4N  34.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1100 AM AST Thu Aug 17 2017\n\nSatellite imagery, including experimental 1-minute data from\nGOES-16, indicates that the circulation of the low pressure area\neast of the Lesser Antilles is becoming better defined, and that a\ncluster of strong convection has formed just west of the center.\nBased on this and the potential for the system to become a tropical\nstorm before reaching the Lesser Antilles, advisories are being\ninitiated as a potential tropical cyclone.  An Air Force Reserve\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system\nthis afternoon, and it is likely the aircraft will find a tropical\ncyclone has formed.\n\nThe initial motion is 270/15.  A deep-layer ridge to the north of\nthe system should steer it generally just north of due west through\nthe forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the system\nthrough the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea in\n24-36 h, into the central Caribbean by 72 h, and to the western\nCaribbean by 96-120 h.  The forecast track lies near the center of\nthe tightly clustered guidance envelope and lies near the various\nconsensus models.\n\nThe system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and\nthe large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should\ncontinue through the forecast period.  This seems favorable for\nstrengthening, and the SHIPS and LGEM models show slow, but steady,\nintensification.  However, the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the\nsystem to degenerate to an easterly wave over the central Caribbean\nSea, possibly due to dry air entrainment.  The intensity forecast\nfollows the trend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it respects the\nGFS/ECMWF forecasts by being on the low side of the intensity\nguidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 13.1N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  18/0000Z 13.1N  56.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\n 24H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 13.5N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 13.9N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 14.5N  74.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 15.5N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  22/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Gert","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL082017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Gert Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082017\n500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017\n\nGert is now post-tropical.  The circulation has become quite\nelongated, and the remaining deep convection appears to be primarily\nassociated with frontal boundaries.  A pair of late-arriving ASCAT\npasses from around 1300 and 1400 UTC indicated that Gert was weaker\nthan previously estimated.  Based on the ASCAT data, the initial\nintensity has been lowered to 55 kt.  The initial wind radii were\nalso adjusted based on the ASCAT data.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a brisk 060/34 kt.  Gert should\nmove quickly northeastward for the next 12 to 24 h while\ngradually spinning down.  After that time, it should slow down and\nturn more toward the north while merging with or being absorbed by\nanother extratropical low.  The track, intensity, and wind radii\nforecasts have incorporated guidance from NOAA's Ocean Prediction\nCenter.\n\nSwells from Gert should continue to affect the coast of the\nnortheastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada through tonight.  These swells\nare likely to produce dangerous surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease consult products from your local weather forecast office for\nmore information.\n\nThis is the last NHC advisory on Gert.  Additional information on\nthis system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the\nNational Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header\nFZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 44.8N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  18/0600Z 47.8N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  18/1800Z 50.6N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  19/0600Z 52.5N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n500 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017\n\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a well-defined\ncirculation in the low pressure area east of the Lesser Antilles,\nwith the center near a cluster of sheared, but strong, convection.\nThe aircraft data suggest that the maximum winds are near 35 kt\nand that the central pressure is near 1004 mb.  Based on these\ndata, the disturbance is upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey.\n\nThe initial motion is 270/16.  There is no change to the forecast\nphilosophy since the previous advisory.  A deep-layer ridge to the\nnorth of the system should steer it quickly just north of due west\nthrough the forecast period, with this motion expected to bring the\nsystem through the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean\nSea in 12-24 h, into the central Caribbean by 48-72 h, and to the\nwestern Caribbean by 96-120 h.  One adjustment is that the 96-120 h\npoints have been nudged a little southward in response to a shift in\nthe guidance, and thus now lie closer to Central America than on\nthe previous forecast.  The forecast track again lies near the\ncenter of the tightly clustered guidance envelope and the various\nconsensus models.\n\nThe system is in an area of moderate easterly vertical shear, and\nthe large-scale models suggest that light/moderate shear should\ncontinue through at least 72 h.  The conflicting forecast scenarios\nalluded to in the previous advisory remain, with the SHIPS and\nLGEM models still showing steady intensification while the GFS and\nECMWF models still forecast degeneration to an easterly wave over\nthe central Caribbean.  The new intensity forecast again follows the\ntrend of the SHIPS/LGEM models, but it remains on the low side of\nthe guidance envelope out of respect for the GFS/ECMWF. The 96-120 h\nintensities have been decreased a little due to the forecast track\nshowing more land interaction.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 13.0N  55.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 13.1N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 13.4N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 13.7N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 14.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 14.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 15.5N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  22/1800Z 17.0N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1100 PM AST Thu Aug 17 2017\n\nSince an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft departed the storm a\nfew hours ago, the cloud pattern of Harvey hasn't changed much.\nDvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are 30 kt,\nand based on the earlier aircraft measurements the current\nintensity is held at 35 kt.  The storm is in a moderate easterly\nshear environment, which should allow only slow strengthening for\nthe next couple of days.  After that, the dynamical models indicate\nthat a decrease in shear should occur.  As noted earlier, however,\nthe GFS and ECMWF global models do not show strengthening of Harvey\nand in fact practically dissipate it during the forecast period.\nThis suggests something unfavorable in the environment besides shear\nahead of the system, perhaps some drier air or subsidence.  The\nofficial intensity forecast shows modest strengthening and is\ngenerally close to the model consensus which includes the\nstatistical/dynamical guidance and the regional hurricane models\n(that do show some strengthening).\n\nThe motion continues westward or 270/16.  There is no change to the\ntrack forecast philosophy from the previous advisory package.\nHarvey should remain embedded in the flow on the south side of a\nstrong mid-level ridge throughout most of the forecast period,\nwhich should steer the system on a continued westward track.  Near\nthe end of period, the guidance suggests a slightly more northward\nmotion with some deceleration.  The official forecast track is near\nthe dynamical model consensus and very close to the previous NHC\ntrack.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 13.0N  57.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 13.2N  59.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 13.6N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 13.9N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 14.8N  78.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  22/0000Z 16.0N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  23/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n500 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017\n\nHarvey's cloud pattern has changed very little in organization\nduring the past several hours. The low-level center is difficult to\nfind even using the 1-min images from GOES 16, but it appears to\nbe located on the eastern edge of the convection due to the\nprevailing easterly shear. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB\nand SAB support keeping the intensity at 35 kt. Another Air\nForce plane will be investigating Harvey at sunrise.\n\nThe moderate easterly shear affecting the cyclone is expected to\nincrease a little during the next day or so, and this factor should\nnot allow significant strengthening. Once the cyclone reaches the\nwestern Caribbean Sea in 3 or 4 days, an environment of lower shear\nand high moisture is forecast to prevail, and Harvey should then\ngather some strength. The cyclone could be near hurricane strength\nby the time it is approaching Central America or the Yucatan\npeninsula. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and\nis very close to the intensity consensus. The GFS and the ECMWF\nglobal models are just a little more enthusiastic in keeping the\ncyclone from dissipating in this last run, but who knows what they\nmight forecast the next time.\n\nHarvey has not changed in track or speed, and it is still moving\ntoward the west or 270 degrees at 16 kt. The cyclone is well\nembedded within the easterlies south of a persistent subtropical\nridge. This steering pattern will keep Harvey trapped in the\nCaribbean Sea while moving westward for the next few days. The\ntrack forecast is similar to the one issued by my predecessor and it\nfollows closely the multi-model consensus. The guidance envelope is\nquite tight and is bounded by the northernmost ECMWF and the GFS to\nthe south.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 13.1N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 13.2N  61.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 13.5N  65.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 13.9N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 14.1N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z 15.0N  80.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  22/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  23/0600Z 17.5N  90.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1100 AM AST Fri Aug 18 2017\n\nThe structure of Harvey has changed little during the past several\nhours, and overall the storm is poorly organized.  The low-level\ncenter is near the eastern edge of the convective mass due\nto the affects of 15 kt of vertical wind shear.  In addition,\nsurface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data\nsuggest that the 850-mb center is located west or southwest of the\nsurface center.  Based on the aircraft and surface data, the central\npressure is near 1005 mb and the initial intensity remains 35 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is a quick 270/18.  A strong low- to mid-level\nridge north of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion\nfor the next 3-4 days, with the system moving from the eastern to\nthe western Caribbean Sea during this time.  Late in the forecast\nperiod, a more northerly motion is expected when Harvey passes near\nor over portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, and\neastern Mexico.  The new forecast track remains in the center of the\nguidance, and only minor changes were made to the previous track.\n\nThe current shear should persist for the next 48 h or so, and thus\nthe intensity forecast continues the trend of slow strengthening\nduring this time.  After that, conditions appear favorable for\nstrengthening, with the main uncertainty being how much land Harvey\nwill encounter.  The ECMWF keeps the cyclone a little north of\nNicaragua and Honduras and allows more room for development, while\nthe GFS forecasts landfall in northeastern Nicaragua and thus has a\nweaker intensity.  The new NHC forecast is close to the previous\none in showing a peak intensity below hurricane strength, but\nthe confidence in this portion of the forecast is low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 13.1N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 13.3N  63.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 13.6N  67.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 14.0N  71.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 14.3N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 15.0N  82.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 16.5N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  23/1200Z 18.5N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 AM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with the disturbance located over the\nopen eastern Pacific Ocean has become better organized early this\nmorning, and a primary convective band now wraps around the western\nhalf of the circulation.  Shortwave-IR and first-light visible\nimagery suggest that a complex, but closed surface circulation\nexists. NHC is therefore initiating advisories on Tropical\nDepression Thirteen-E.\n\nThe initial intensity is set at 30 kt, in agreement with the max\nwinds measured in an earlier ASCAT pass and the latest Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB.  Light easterly vertical wind shear has\nthus far limited convection to the western half of the circulation,\nbut the GFS and ECMWF agree that the shear will lessen as the system\nmoves farther west.  Overall, the environment appears conducive for\nintensification for the next 3 days or so, and the NHC forecast\nindicates that the cyclone will become a hurricane by the end of\nthis weekend.  After that time, the cyclone will begin to weaken\nover much cooler waters.  The NHC forecast is very close to the\nmulti-model consensus, IVCN.\n\nSince the center has only recently formed, the initial motion\nestimate is a fairly uncertain 285/13 kt.  There is fairly good\nagreement among the global models that the tropical cyclone will\nmove generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 h\nalong the southern boundary of a mid-level ridge that extends\nwestward well into the eastern Pacific basin.  A weakness in the\nridge is forecast to develop in about 3 days that should cause\nthe cyclone to slow and turn more toward the northwest and\neventually toward the north-northwest.  The official forecast is\nclose to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 14.8N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 15.4N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 15.9N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 16.6N 123.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 17.3N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 19.1N 130.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 21.4N 132.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  23/1200Z 23.6N 133.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n500 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017\n\nAgain, there has been little change in the structure of Harvey,\nwith the low-level center near the eastern edge of a strong, but\npoorly organized, convective area.  Earlier reports from an Air\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included winds suggesting\nan increased intensity.  However, due to uncertainties in how\nrepresentative these measurements were, no appreciable change in\nthe central pressure, and no improvement in the structure, the\ninitial intensity is held at 35 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/18.  A strong low- to mid-level ridge\nnorth of the cyclone should keep Harvey on this general motion\nfor the next 3 days or so, with the system moving from the eastern\nto the western Caribbean Sea during this time.  After 72 h, a\nwest-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is\nexpected when Harvey passes near or over portions of Central\nAmerica, the Yucatan Peninsula, and eastern Mexico.  The new\nforecast track is a little faster then the previous track, but\nthere were only minor changes in the direction.  It should be noted\nthat there is considerable uncertainty about how far north Harvey\nmight get over the Bay of Campeche, with several of the large-scale\nmodels not bringing the center back over the water on the latest\nruns.\n\nThe current shear should persist for about the next 48 h, and\nthus the intensity forecast continues the trend of slow\nstrengthening during this time.  However, the GFS and ECMWF again\nforecast Harvey to degenerate to an open wave during this time, and\nthe rest of the intensity guidance has trended toward a weaker\ncyclone.  This lowers the confidence in intensification.  After\n48 h, conditions appear more favorable for strengthening, with the\nmain uncertainty being how much land Harvey will encounter.  The\nintensity forecast will again call for a peak intensity of 60 kt in\n72 h, followed by weakening due to land interaction.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 13.4N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 13.6N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 13.9N  69.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 14.2N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 14.5N  76.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 15.5N  83.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 17.5N  88.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n120H  23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017\n\nThe tropical depression is slowly becoming more organized.  Moderate\nupper-level northeasterly winds are inhibiting outflow in the\nnortheast quadrant of the cyclone, but banding convection is present\nin all quadrants.  A pair of ASCAT passes around 1700 and 1800 UTC\nconfirmed that the depression has a well-defined center and showed\nmaximum winds of just below 30 kt.  The initial intensity\nis therefore held at 30 kt.  The ASCAT data also indicated\nthat the center of circulation is a little to the south of the\nprevious estimated position, perhaps in part due to a reorganization\nof the center closer to the main mass of convection.\n\nDue to the relocation of the estimated center to the south, the\nofficial forecast has been shifted to the south and west throughout\nthe forecast period.  Otherwise, the reasoning behind the forecast\nhas not changed, and the depression should continue to be steered\ngenerally westward to west-northwestward for the next 3 days by a\nmid-level ridge.  A weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop\naround day 4 that should cause the cyclone to turn toward the\nnorthwest and slow down.  The only change in the track guidance\nis a slight increase in forward speed through 36 h, and confidence\nis fairly high in the track forecast due to a tight clustering of\nthe global models.\n\nNo change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains\nvery close to the multi-model consensus.  The light northeasterly\nshear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease over\nthe next 12 to 24 h.  Once that happens, the cyclone will be\nembedded within an environment consisting of low shear, warm SSTs,\nand sufficient moisture to support strengthening. After about 72 h,\ncooler waters and a more stable environment should cause steady\nweakening.  By day 5, SSTs are expected to be be below 24 C, and the\ncyclone will likely be close to becoming a remnant low.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 14.8N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 15.1N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 15.6N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 16.4N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 17.2N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 18.9N 131.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 21.0N 133.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  23/1800Z 23.9N 133.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017\n\nMicrowave and conventional geostationary satellite images indicate\nthat Harvey's center is still displaced to the east of a persistent\ncluster of deep convection due to about 15 kt of northeasterly\nshear.  With no notable changes in the cyclone's structure since\nthe last advisory, the maximum wind estimate remains 35 kt, which\nis in line with the latest Dvorak CI numbers.\n\nRecent microwave fixes suggest that Harvey's center may have slowed\ndown or wobbled northward temporarily, and the 12-hour motion\nestimate is a slightly slower 275/16 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge\nextending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a swift\nwestward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours.\nOnce Harvey moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 72 hours,\nit will reach the western edge of the ridge, and it will likely\nslow down and gain some latitude due to a cut-off low over the\nnorthwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Although the track guidance envelope\nhas shifted slightly northward on this cycle, especially around the\n72-hour period, there are no significant changes from six hours ago.\n\nNortheasterly or northerly shear is forecast to continue for the\nnext 36 hours or so, which should prevent significant strengthening\nwhile Harvey moves westward across the eastern and central\nCaribbean Sea.  By 48 hours, the vertical shear over the cyclone\ndrops drastically, but the system's fast motion could still\nlimit the amount of intensification that will occur.  The best\nopportunity for strengthening would likely be around day 3 when\nHarvey begins to slow down as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan\nPeninsula.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is the same as the\nprevious one during the first 48 hours, and it was nudged a little\nlower at 72 hours to fall closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus\n(HCCA) model and the ICON intensity consensus.  A lot of\nuncertainty remains, however, since models like SHIPS and HWRF\nbring Harvey near or to hurricane intensity before it reaches land\nwhile the GFS and ECMWF continue to weaken the circulation while it\nmoves across the Caribbean Sea.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 13.7N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 14.0N  66.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 14.3N  70.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 14.5N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 14.8N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 16.5N  84.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  23/0000Z 18.0N  89.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  24/0000Z 19.0N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 PM PDT Fri Aug 18 2017\n\nConventional satellite imagery and an earlier SSMI/S overpass show\nthat the depression has been strengthening during the past several\nhours.  Impressive outer curved banding has developed in the eastern\nand northern portions of the cyclone, and the last few visible\nimages are showing early signs of a small central dense overcast, or\ninner core formation.  Based on the overall improvement of the cloud\npattern and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt from\nSAB and TAFB, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Kenneth.\n\nThe northeasterly shear is diminishing, the oceanic temperatures are\nwarm, and the low to mid levels of the atmosphere are moist, all\nbolstering further strengthening through the 48-hour period.\nAfterward, decreasing sea surface temperatures and an intruding\nstable air mass from the north should result in gradual weakening.\nNo significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast,\nand the NHC forecast is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model\nconsensus.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/13 kt.\nKenneth is embedded in the easterly mid-level flow of a subtropical\nridge extending over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico.  The\ncyclone should commence a gradual turn toward the west-northwest\naround the 24-hour period as a mid- to upper-level low located\njust southwest of the southern California coast amplifies and\nerodes the ridge to the northwest of Kenneth.  Kenneth's motion is\nexpected to be further influenced by this growing weakness in the\nridge by decreasing in forward speed, turning northwestward on\nday 3, and then north-northwestward around the 96-hour period.  The\nguidance suite is surprisingly tightly clustered through the entire\nforecast period.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\none, and is hedged toward the HCCA corrected consensus model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 15.4N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 16.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 16.8N 126.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 17.7N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 19.6N 131.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  23/0000Z 22.3N 133.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  24/0000Z 25.2N 133.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n500 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nGOES-16 shortwave infrared imagery shows the partially exposed\ncenter of Harvey on the eastern edge of a large area of deep\nconvection. While the center is closer to the convection than a few\nhours ago, cirrus clouds be clearly seen moving from northeast to\nsouthwest across the system; an indication of the persistent shear.\nSatellite estimates suggest the maximum winds of Harvey remain 35\nkt.\n\nThe storm has picked up some forward speed with a recent motion\nestimate of 275/18.  A low- to mid-level ridge extending across the\nwestern Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast westward course across\nthe Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours.  Thereafter, the ridge\nweakens across the Gulf of Mexico due to a strong mid/upper-level\nlow currently seen there on water vapor images.  This steering flow\nchange should cause Harvey to slow down and turn a little more to\nthe west-northwest in the northwestern Caribbean Sea, with an even\nslower motion forecast for Harvey in the Bay of Campeche.  Model\nguidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and no\nsignificant changes were made to the previous forecast.\n\nHarvey should be moving into a more conducive environment for\nstrengthening early next week since the strong northeasterly shear\nthat has been affecting the cyclone is forecast by almost all of the\nguidance to weaken within about 24 hours.  In a few days, most of\nthe global models show a favorable upper-level environment for\nintensification, and Harvey could be near hurricane strength between\nthe 72 hour forecast period and landfall.  There has been little\nchange to the guidance so the new intensity forecast is similar to\nthe previous one, close to the model consensus.  However, with\na weak storm moving so quickly across the central Caribbean, one\nalways has to be careful of the system opening up into a wave. This\nis a plausible alternative scenario still suggested by the GFS and\nECMWF models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 13.8N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 14.0N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 14.3N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 14.6N  76.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  21/0600Z 15.2N  80.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 17.0N  86.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  23/0600Z 18.3N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  24/0600Z 19.3N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nMicrowave data reveal that Kenneth is not well organized yet\nwith the low- and mid-level centers well separated. The low-level\ncenter is located on the northeastern edge of the convection due to\nnortherly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model. The overall outflow\npattern is well established. A partial ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC\nand Dvorak estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains at\n35 kt. The shear is forecast to decrease a little, and Kenneth will\nbe moving over warm waters for the next two days. On this basis, the\nNHC forecast calls for some strengthening, and Kenneth could become\na hurricane by Sunday. By the end of the forecast period, the\ncyclone is expected to be moving over cooler waters and weakening\nshould then begin.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest\nor 285 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded within the flow\naround the subtropical high, and this track should continue for\nthe next day or two. After that time, Kenneth should have reached\nthe western end of ridge, and it should then gradually turn more to\nthe northwest or north-northwest. For the next 2 to 3 days, the\ntrack guidance is pretty tightly clustered, increasing the\nconfidence in the forecast. Beyond 3 days, the forecast is less\ncertain since the guidance spread is large. The NHC forecast is in\nthe middle of the guidance envelope which is bounded by the ECMWF on\nthe west side and by the GFS and the HWRF models on the right. The\nofficial forecast does not depart much from the previous one during\nthe first 3 days, and is shifted a little bit to the right\nthereafter.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 15.6N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 16.0N 122.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 16.6N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  23/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  24/0600Z 26.5N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1100 AM AST Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nHarvey has become less organized in visible imagery since this\ntime yesterday, with the convective pattern becoming elongated and\nthe circulation looking less well defined.  In addition, an Air\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft could not close the\ncirculation at 850 mb, but was able to close the circulation at 1000\nft.  The plane has not yet reported tropical-storm-force winds, but\nthe northwestern quadrant was not well sampled.  Thus, the initial\nintensity is held at a possibly generous 35 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is now 275/19.  A low- to mid-level ridge\nextending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a fast\nwestward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 36-48 hours.\nThereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north of\nHarvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in\nwater vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should\ncause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward\nspeed. The track guidance is in good agreement that Harvey should\npass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then cross\nBelize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, and\nbased on this the new forecast track follows the guidance with only\nminor changes from the previous track.\n\nThe ongoing moderate vertical shear should continue for another\n12-24 h or so, and combined with the current lack of organization\nshould allow at best only slow strengthening.  After that, the\nupper-level winds are expected to become favorable for strengthening\nas the system moves over the deep warm waters of the western\nCaribbean.  The intensity forecast follows the previous forecast in\ncalling for a peak intensity of 60 kt just before the system\nreaches Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula.  Harvey should weaken as it\ncrosses the southern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula between 72-96\nh, followed by some re-intensification over the Bay of Campeche.  It\nshould be noted that any additional loss of organization in the next\n12-24 h would result in the cyclone degenerating into an easterly\nwave.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 13.9N  68.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 14.1N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 14.4N  74.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 14.9N  78.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 15.7N  82.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 17.5N  88.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  23/1200Z 19.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  24/1200Z 19.5N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 AM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nA couple of recent microwave overpasses has revealed that the center\nof Kenneth remains near the northeastern edge of the deep\nconvection. Although the upper-level outflow is well established\nover the southwestern and western portions of the circulation, it is\nsomewhat restricted over the northeastern quadrant due to about 15\nkt of shear as diagnosed by a UW-CIMSS shear analysis. Subjective\nand objective Dvorak T-numbers are around 3.0 (45 kt) from the\nvarious agencies, but the initial wind speed is conservatively\nraised to 40 kt, since I would rather wait to see visible satellite\nimages to get a better handle on Kenneth's structure.\n\nKenneth is moving west-northwestward, 285 degrees, at 14 kt.  The\ntropical storm is moving around the southwestern portion of a low-\nto mid-level ridge that is located just west of the southern Baja\npeninsula.  Kenneth is expected to reach the western portion of the\nridge in about 48 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn\nnorthwestward, then north-northwestward later in the period.  The\ntrack guidance remains in good agreement through 48 hours, but\ndiverges after that time.  The latest run of the GFS has shifted a\nlittle westward, but remains along the eastern side of the guidance\nenvelope, with the ECMWF along the western edge.  The new NHC track\nforecast has been nudged westward to be closer to the various\nconsensus aids that have generally shifted in that direction this\ncycle.\n\nThe global models predict that the upper-level wind pattern over\nKenneth should become more conducive for strengthening over the next\nday or so.  During that time Kenneth will be moving over SSTs of 27\nto 28C, which should allow for intensification, and the NHC foreast\nonce again brings Kenneth to hurricane strength on Sunday.  After 48\nhours, decreasing SSTs should result in gradual weakening.  The\nupdated NHC intensity foreast is a little above the statistical\nguidance and ICON consensus model through 48 hours, but is\ngenerally close to the HFIP corrected consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 15.8N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 16.4N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 17.0N 126.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 18.9N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  23/1200Z 24.3N 133.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  24/1200Z 27.0N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n500 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of Harvey has continued to decay during the day,\nat least in part due to 15-20 kt of northerly shear.  The convective\narea near the center is neither very concentrated or curved, and\noverall the pattern more resembles that of an open wave than a\ntropical cyclone.  Based on the decay and data from the aircraft\nmission this morning, the cyclone is downgraded to a tropical\ndepression.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\nwill investigate the system this evening to see if the circulation\nstill exists.\n\nThe intensity forecast is problematic.  The current shear should\nsubside over the next 24 h, and the statistical guidance responds\nto this by forecasting significant strengthening.  On the other\nhand, the structure of the cyclone has decayed to the point where\nit may not be able to take advantage of the better environment, as\nsuggested by the ECMWF and GFS. The intensity forecast follows the\ntrend of the previous forecast, albeit with lower intensities, in\nshowing gradual strengthening until landfall in Belize or Yucatan.\nHowever, an alternative forecast scenario is that the system\ndegenerates to an open wave and is unable to regenerate during the\nnext 72 h.\n\nThe initial motion remains 275/19.  There is no change in the\nforecast philosophy from the previous advisory, and there are only\nminor tweaks to the forecast track.   A low- to mid-level ridge\nextending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey, or its\nremnants, on a fast westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the\nnext 36 h. Thereafter, there should be a weakness in the ridge north\nof Harvey caused by a strong mid/upper-level low currently seen in\nwater vapor imagery over the Gulf of Mexico.  This pattern should\ncause a turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward\nspeed. The track guidance remains in good agreement that Harvey\nshould pass near or just north of northeastern Honduras, and then\ncross Belize and/or the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche.\n\nA Tropical Storm Watch could be required for portions of the\nnorthern coast of Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua tonight.  At\nthe present time, there is enough uncertainty about whether Harvey\nwill actually be a tropical storm in 48 h that a watch is not\nwarranted.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 14.1N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 14.3N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 14.6N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 15.2N  80.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 16.0N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 18.0N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  23/1800Z 19.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n120H  24/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nKenneth is on a strengthening trend.  The cloud pattern of the\ntropical storm consists of a central dense overcast and curved outer\nbands, mostly on the south and west portions of the circulation.  A\npartial SSMI/S overpass around 1500 UTC shows a mid-level eye\nfeature, but it also indicated that the system is still vertically\ntilted from northeast to southwest, likely the result of\nnortheasterly shear.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB\nand ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are\nunanimously 3.5/55 kt, and the initial wind speed is increased to\nthat value.\n\nKenneth is moving west-northwestward at 16 kt on the south\nside of a narrow mid-level ridge.  A decrease in forward speed and a\nturn to the northwest is expected during the next 2 to 3 days\nwhile the storm moves toward the southwestern periphery of the\nridge.  Thereafter, an even slower motion toward the north-northwest\nis forecast as Kenneth moves into a break in the ridge caused by a\nlarge-scale trough off of the west coast of the United States.  The\ntrack models have shifted a little to the south and west this cycle,\nand the NHC forecast has been adjusted in those directions.\n\nThe environmental conditions appear generally favorable for Kenneth\nto keep strengthening during the next 36 hours or so, and the system\nis forecast to become a hurricane as early as tonight.  After\nthat time, SSTs fall below 26 deg C along the expected path of\nKenneth, and these cool waters combined with a drier air mass should\nend the strengthening trend and induce gradual weakening.  An\nincrease in south-southwesterly shear in 4 to 5 days will also aid\nin the weakening process.  The NHC intensity forecast is higher than\nthe previous one and is in best agreement with the IVCN and HCCA\nconsensus models.  This forecast also calls for Kenneth to become a\npost-tropical cyclone by the end of the period when it will be over\nSSTs near 22 deg C.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 15.9N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 16.5N 125.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 18.1N 130.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 19.1N 131.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 21.8N 133.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  23/1800Z 24.4N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  24/1800Z 27.1N 135.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Harvey","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Harvey Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Harvey\nearlier this evening and was unable to close off a center of\ncirculation.  The plane found a well-defined wind shift across the\nwave axis, and winds decreased as the plane flew south along the\naxis toward a pressure minimum south of 14N.  Harvey has therefore\ndegenerated into an open wave, and this will be the last advisory.\nMaximum surface winds, as measured by the plane, remain 30 kt.  As\na side note, the associated deep convection has continued to lose\norganization and is now oriented linearly from northeast to\nsouthwest along the wave axis.\n\nHarvey's remnants are moving quickly westward with a motion of\n275/19 kt.  A fast westward to west-northwestward motion is\nexpected to continue for the next couple of days as the wave moves\nalong the southern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  A break in\nthe ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf of\nMexico could cause the system to turn northwestward and slow down\nas it moves across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of\nCampeche in 3-5 days.\n\nThe global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, deserve a lot of\ncredit for showing Harvey dissipating, or at least not\nstrengthening, over the Caribbean Sea.  Even though the vertical\nshear that has been plaguing the system is expected to diminish in\n24-48 hours, the system's fast motion and ambient dry air will\nlikely keep Harvey's remnants from regenerating into a tropical\ncyclone in the near term.  For that reason, the solutions shown by\nthe GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET appear most reasonable, keeping the\nsystem as an open wave, or possibly regenerating to a tropical\ndepression before it reaches Belize and the Yucatan coast.\nRegeneration is also possible if the remnants emerge over the Bay\nof Campeche.\n\nThe remnants of Harvey will be monitored for signs of regeneration\nand for the possibility of bringing tropical storm conditions to\nBelize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of\ndays.  If necessary, advisories could be resumed and tropical storm\nwatches or warnings issued before Harvey regains tropical cyclone\nstatus.  Please refer to the Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for\nthis system's potential to regenerate into a tropical cyclone,\nbeginning with the 2 AM issuance on Sunday morning.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 14.3N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF HARVEY\n 12H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 PM PDT Sat Aug 19 2017\n\nKenneth is very near hurricane strength.  It's rather apparent that\nthe northeasterly shear has relaxed, which, in turn, has resulted in\nmuch less structural vertical tilt and a developing inner core\nwith -80C cloud tops.  The upper-level outflow over the northern\nportion of Kenneth has recently become quite diffluent as well.\nBased on the recent improving cloud pattern trend and a blend of the\nsubjective and objective T-numbers, the initial intensity is bumped\nup to 60 kt.\n\nKenneth should continue to strengthen during the next 36 to 48\nhours.  Beyond that time period, decreasing oceanic temperatures\nand a trajectory into a more stable environment should result in\na gradual weakening trend.  The cyclone is forecast to gradually\nspin down over cooler water of less than 23C, and become a\npost-tropical cyclone by day 5.  The intensity forecast is an\nupdate of the previous one and is weighted heavily on the IVCN\nmulti-model consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/15 kt.\nThere are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy.\nKenneth should gradually round the southwestern periphery of a\nsubtropical high extending west of the Baja California Peninsula\nduring the next couple of days, and afterward, turn northwestward\ninto a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge.  Toward the end\nof the forecast period, the cyclone should continue moving into the\nbreak in the ridge and in a more north-northwestward fashion.  There\nstill remains considerable model spread after day 3.  The ECMWF,\nUKMET, and ECMWF ensemble mean all indicate a faster weakening trend\nwhich causes a vertically shallower Kenneth to track more toward\nthe northwest to west-northwest within the low- to mid-level\nsteering flow.  All other available guidance indicate a more\ngradual spin down and a northwestward to north-northwestward track\nbeyond day 3. Consequently the NHC official forecast splits these\ntwo solutions, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus\nmodel.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 16.2N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 16.6N 127.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 17.3N 129.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 18.3N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 19.5N 132.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  23/0000Z 22.3N 134.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  24/0000Z 25.3N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  25/0000Z 27.5N 136.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017\n\nThe overall cloud pattern of Kenneth has changed little since the\nprevious advisory.  The center remains embedded with a fairly\nsymmetric central dense overcast, but there has been no evidence of\nan eye in infrared satellite pictures overnight.  Subjective and\nobjective Dvorak T-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0, which support\nmaintaining an initial wind speed of 60 kt.\n\nKenneth is forecast to remain within a low shear environment and\nover warm water for another 24 to 36 hours.  This should result\nin strengthening and Kenneth is expected to become a hurricane\nlater today.  After that time, decreasing sea surface temperatures\nand less favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause gradual\nweakening.  Late in the period, increasing southwesterly shear\nshould hasten Kenneth's demise and the system is expected to become\na remnant low by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the\nSHIPS guidance and the IVCN multi-model consensus through 72 hours,\nbut is a little below this guidance at days 4 and 5.\n\nKenneth has been moving generally westward during the past 24 hours\nand recent satellite fixes suggest that Kenneth's forward motion\nhas slowed to about 13 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains\nunchanged from the previous few advisories, with Kenneth expected\nto move around the western portion of a subtropical ridge over the\nnext couple of days.  By Tuesday, a developing weakness in the\nridge should cause Kenneth to turn northwestward, then\nnorth-northwestward late in the period.  The early portion of\nthe track forecast has been shifted a little southward, primarily\ndue to a more southward initial position as noted by recent\nmicrowave data.  After 72 h, the dynamical models have come\ninto a little better agreement and little change was required to\nthe previous NHC track.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 16.0N 126.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 16.4N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 18.2N 131.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 19.5N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  23/0600Z 22.7N 134.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  24/0600Z 25.9N 136.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  25/0600Z 27.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 AM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017\n\nKenneth is gradually strengthening.  Satellite images show that the\ncloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast and curved bands\nbeyond that feature, especially to the south of the center.  The\nDvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were both 4.0/65 kt, and\nrecent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are\nabout the same.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is\nincreased a little to 65 kt, making Kenneth a category 1 hurricane.\n\nThe initial motion of the hurricane is the same as before, 280/13\nkt.  A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is\nexpected to occur on Monday as a mid-level ridge to the northeast of\nthe system weakens.  After that time, Kenneth is expected to move\neven slower to the north-northwest when it moves into a break in the\nridge caused by a cut-off low near the southwestern United States.\nOverall the models are in fair agreement with this scenario, but\nthey differ in where and when Kenneth begins to recurve.  The\nconsensus aids have been quite consistent over the past few cycles,\nand this forecast is largely just an update of the previous one.\n\nThe environmental conditions are conducive for Kenneth to strengthen\nsome more during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time,\nhowever, cooler waters along the expected track and drier air\nshould end the strengthening trend and cause weakening.  In\naddition, the global models show a significant increase in\nsoutherly shear beginning in about 72 hours, which should aid in\nthe weakening trend.  The intensity models are in very good\nagreement, and little change was made to the previous forecast.\nKenneth will likely become a post-tropical cyclone in 4 to 5 days\nwhen it will be over SSTs of about 23 deg C.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 16.3N 127.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 16.8N 129.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 19.0N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 20.4N 133.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 23.7N 134.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 26.7N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z 28.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017\n\nKenneth has been strengthening rapidly during the last several\nhours.  An eye has appeared in geostationary satellite images and\ndeep convection has been increasing in intensity, especially to the\neast of the center.  The latest Dvorak classifications have\nincreased, and an average of the intensity estimates from TAFB,\nSAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin\nsupport raising the initial wind speed to 80 kt.\n\nThe hurricane is still not gaining much latitude, and the initial\nmotion is 280/11 kt, which is a little slower than before.  The\ntrack forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier.  A decrease in\nforward speed and a turn to the northwest is expected on Monday as\nthe hurricane moves on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.\nAfter that time, Kenneth is expected to move north-northwestward\nand slow down even more as it moves into a break in the ridge caused\nby a cut off low near the California coast.  The track models have\nshifted a little to the east beyond 48 hours, and the NHC forecast\nhas been nudged in that direction.\n\nKenneth has already intensified more than expected, and it still\nhas about another 24 hours in favorable environmental conditions.\nTherefore, additional strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC\nintensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short\nterm, in best agreement with the HCCA model.  Beyond 24 hours,\nKenneth is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 deg C and\ninto a progressively drier and more stable air mass.  These\nunfavorable conditions combined with an increase in southerly shear\nbeginning in about 72 hours should cause a steady weakening trend.\nKenneth is now forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4,\nwhen it will be over SSTs near 23 deg C and in wind shear conditions\nof nearly 30 kt.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2100Z 16.2N 128.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 17.0N 129.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 18.1N 131.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 19.4N 132.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 21.0N 133.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 24.5N 135.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 27.0N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  25/1800Z 28.7N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 PM PDT Sun Aug 20 2017\n\nKenneth has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane this\nevening, as the eye has dramatically warmed and the surrounding\ncloud tops of the eyewall have cooled.  At 00Z, a blend of TAFB,\nSAB, and ADT Dvorak classifications averaged maximum winds of\n95 kt. However, the continued convective development in the last\nthree hours suggests that the advisory intensity be boosted to\n100 kt, and even that may be conservative.\n\nWhile the hurricane has shown an impressive evolution in the last\nday, this should not continue much longer.  Kenneth will reach the\n26C SST isotherm with drier, less unstable air late Monday, and it\nis anticipated that Kenneth will peak by then.  In about three\ndays, the vertical shear will go up appreciably due to Kenneth\napproaching an upper-level trough.  The combination of the hostile\nthermodynamics and shear should cause a steady weakening through\nthe forecast period.  Kenneth's deep convection is likely to\ndissipate in three to four days, signaling the system's\ntransformation to a post-tropical cyclone.  The official intensity\nforecast is substantially higher than previously in the short-term\ndue to the unanticipated rapid intensification, but similar for 36\nhours and beyond.  This prediction is closest to a blend of the HMON\ndynamical model and the LGEM/SHIPS statistical models.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest at 9 kt, steered\nby a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast.  Kenneth should\ngradually turn toward the north-northwest during the next couple of\ndays at about the same rate of forward speed, as it rounds the\nmid-level ridge and is impacted by a cut-off mid- to upper-level low\nfarther north.  Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical cyclone in\nabout 4 days, its forward speed should slow as it reaches a weaker\nsteering flow.  The official track forecast is nearly unchanged\nthrough day 2 and is farther north beyond that time, based upon the\nHFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0300Z 16.8N 129.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 17.4N 130.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 18.7N 131.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 20.3N 132.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 22.1N 133.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 25.5N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z 28.5N 136.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  26/0000Z 30.0N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017\n\nKenneth has continued to rapidly intensify since the previous\nadvisory.  The satellite presentation of the hurricane is quite\nimpressive, as a 15-nmi wide eye has become better defined while\nthe cloud tops of the surrounding ring of convection has cooled.\nDvorak intensity estimates range from T5.5 (102 kt) from SAB,\nT6.0 (115 kt) from TAFB, to T6.3 (122 kt) from UW/CIMSS.  Using a\nblend of these estimates, the initial wind speed has been increased\nto 115 kt, making Kenneth a category 4 hurricane on the\nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n\nThe hurricane is expected to peak in intensity very soon as it will\nbe moving over cooler waters and into a more stable air mass\nlater today.  After that time, cooler sea surface temperatures and\nless favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause steady\nweakening.  In 3 to 4 days, increasing southwesterly shear from an\nupper-level trough along 140W and sub 23C SSTs should cause\nKenneth's deep convection to dissipate, resulting in the system\nbecoming a post-tropical cyclone.  The NHC intensity forecast is\nslightly higher than the previous one at 12 and 24 h due to the\nhigher initial intensity.  After that time, the forecast is fairly\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the various\nintensity aids.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwest or 300 degrees at\n9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the\nprevious advisory, as Kenneth is expected to turn northwestward\ntoday, then north-northwestward on Tuesday between a mid-level ridge\nto its east and a developing cut-off low to the west.  Kenneth\nshould slow down considerably later in the period when it becomes a\nvertically shallow system and is steered by the weaker low-level\nflow.  There is very little spread in the track guidance, and the\nupdated official forecast is near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope, and very close to the previous NHC forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0900Z 17.4N 130.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 18.2N 131.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 19.7N 132.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 23.1N 134.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 26.6N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  25/0600Z 29.0N 136.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  26/0600Z 30.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 AM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017\n\nKenneth continues to have an impressive structure in satellite\nimages.  The eye of the hurricane remains distinct, and the\nconvective pattern is symmetric around the center.  The cloud\ntops in the eyewall, however, are not quite as cold as they were\novernight, which resulted in a decrease of the 1200 UTC Dvorak\nfinal-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Based on an average of the final\nT- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the\nUniversity of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is lowered a\nlittle, to 110 kt.\n\nKenneth has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be\ncrossing the 26 deg C isotherm later today.  In addition, the\nhurricane will be moving into a progressively drier air mass.\nThese unfavorable thermodynamics combined with a significant\nincrease in southerly shear beginning in about 2 days should cause\nKenneth to weaken at a steady or rapid pace.  The system is forecast\nto become a post-tropical cyclone in about 3 days when the shear is\nexpected to increase to near 30 kt while Kenneth is over SSTs below\n23 deg C.  These conditions should cause the associated convection\nto dissipate or be sheared away from the circulation.  The NHC\nintensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus\nmodels.\n\nThe major hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 9 kt steered by\na mid-level ridge to its northeast.  The system is forecast to turn\nto the northwest later today, followed by a north-northwestward\nmotion by late Tuesday as Kenneth moves into a pronounced weakness\ncaused by a cut-off low near the California coast.  The models are\nin fairly good agreement, and only minor changes were made to the\nprevious NHC track forecast.  This forecast lies close to the\nvarious consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z 17.9N 130.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 18.9N 132.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 20.4N 133.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 24.1N 134.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 27.4N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  25/1200Z 29.6N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  26/1200Z 31.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017\n\nSatellite images suggest that Kenneth is gradually weakening.\nAlthough the eye remains fairly distinct, the convection in the\neyewall is not quite as deep as it was earlier today.  An average of\nthe latest final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support lowering the\ninitial wind speed a little, to 105 kt.\n\nKenneth is now moving northwestward at 9 kt steered by a mid-level\nridge to its northeast.  The hurricane is forecast to turn\nnorth-northwestward on Tuesday when it moves into a pronounced\nbreak in the ridge and it should continue in that general direction\nfor the remainder of the forecast period.  The models are in good\nagreement, and little change has been made to the previous NHC track\nforecast.  This forecast remains near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\nThe hurricane is nearing the 26 deg C isotherm, and it is expected\nto cross into those cooler waters by tonight.  Cool waters, stable\nair, and an increase in southerly wind shear should cause steady or\neven rapid weakening of the system during the next few days.\nKenneth is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or\nsooner, when it will be over SSTs below 23 deg C and in an\nenvironment of more than 30 kt of shear.  The NHC intensity forecast\nis a little lower than the previous one, and it is in best agreement\nwith the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z 18.3N 131.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 19.4N 132.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 21.2N 133.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 23.0N 134.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 27.8N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  25/1800Z 29.6N 137.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  26/1800Z 31.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 PM PDT Mon Aug 21 2017\n\nKenneth's previously distinct eye is clouding over as its eye\ntemperature cools, while the surrounding eyewall convection warms\nand weakens. Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from TAFB,\nSAB, and ADT have dropped and a blend of them suggests an intensity\nof 95 kt at 00Z.  Continued deterioration of the convective\nstructure is justification for maximum winds of 90 kt at advisory\ntime.  While no recent size observations have been available,\nearlier AMSU estimates along with the limited extent of the cold\ncloud canopy suggest that Kenneth is a small tropical cyclone with\ntropical-storm-force winds extending out about 80 nm from the\ncenter on average.\n\nKenneth should continue to weaken - perhaps rapidly - under the\ninfluence of cool to cold SSTs, dry and less unstable air, and\nincreasing southwesterly vertical shear.  Kenneth should likely\nlose all of its organized deep convection in 2-3 days, signaling\nits transformation to a post-tropical cyclone at that time.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is based upon the tightly packed\ndynamical and statistical model guidance and is a bit lower than the\nprevious advisory.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, as it\nrounds the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and\ntoward a mid- to upper-level low farther north.  Over the next\ncouple of days, Kenneth should turn toward the north-northwest at\nabout the same rate of speed.  Once Kenneth becomes a post-tropical\ncyclone, it should turn back toward the northwest and slow its\nforward speed within the weak, low-level tradewinds.  The official\ntrack forecast is based upon the usually reliable global and\nhurricane dynamical models, minus the substantially slower and to\nthe left UKMET solution (which has not been performing well thus far\nthis season).  The new track forecast is slightly northeast of the\nprevious advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z 19.2N 132.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 20.4N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 22.2N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 24.0N 134.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 25.6N 135.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 28.5N 136.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  26/0000Z 30.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  27/0000Z 31.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017\n\nKenneth is quickly weakening this morning.  Recent microwave images\nshow that the inner-core structure has eroded and that the low-level\ncenter is displaced to the southwest of the mid-level center due to\nmoderate southwesterly shear.  Subjective and objective Dvorak\nT-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity is set at 80 kt,\nwhich is a blend of the various final T- and CI-numbers.\n\nThe hurricane is expected to continue to rapidly weaken during the\nnext day or so while it moves over progressively cooler sea surface\ntemperatures and into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical\nwind shear.  Kenneth should weaken to a tropical storm later today,\nand become post-tropical in 2-3 days, if not sooner.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected\nconsensus model, but is a little lower than the statistical guidance\nand the previous advisory.\n\nKenneth is moving northwestward or 325/9 kt. The cyclone should\nturn north-northwestward today between a mid-level ridge to its\neast and a cut-off low to the west. As Kenneth weakens, it is\npredicted to slow down and turn northwestward by the end of the\nforecast period.  The track models are in excellent agreement\nthrough 48-72 hours, but diverge somewhat after Kenneth weakens\nand becomes post-tropical.  The official track forecast is close to\nthe GFS/ECMWF consensus and is not much different than the previous\nNHC advisory.\n\nThe 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted slightly inward\nbased on a couple of recent ASCAT overpass.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z 20.0N 132.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 21.3N 133.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 23.2N 134.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 25.1N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  24/0600Z 26.6N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  25/0600Z 28.7N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/0600Z 30.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  27/0600Z 31.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Kenneth Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 AM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017\n\nKenneth is moving over SSTs below 26 deg C and continues to weaken.\nUsing a blend of CI- and T-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current\nintensity is set to 70 kt.  Continued weakening is likely as the\ncyclone moves over progressively cooler waters and increasing\nsouth-southwesterly shear associated with a broad upper-level trough\nto the west of Kenneth.  The official intensity forecast is close to\nthe latest D-SHIPS guidance and calls for the system to decay\nrapidly to a tropical depression in 36 hours and to a remnant low in\n48 hours, although this could occur even sooner than shown here.\n\nMicrowave data suggest that the low-level center is displaced a bit\nto the southwest of the mid-level center.  The initial motion is\nnow estimated to be north-northwestward or 330/10 kt.  No\nsignificant changes have been made to the track forecast or\nreasoning.  Global models show a break in the subtropical ridge\nassociated with a mid-level trough near 140W longitude over the\nnext few days.  Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward\nthrough the break until later in the forecast period when the\nshallow cyclone is likely to turn to the left following the\nlow-level flow.  The official track forecast follows the latest\ndynamical model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 20.9N 133.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 22.2N 133.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 24.1N 134.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 25.7N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z 27.1N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/1200Z 28.7N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/1200Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  27/1200Z 31.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017\n\nKenneth's associated deep convection has been diminishing in\ncoverage and intensity.  The tropical cyclone is now traversing SSTs\nbelow 25 deg C, and continues to weaken.  Using a blend of Dvorak T-\nand CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB gives a current intensity estimate\nof 60 kt, bringing the system below hurricane strength.  Continued\nweakening at a fairly rapid pace is expected while the system\nmoves over progressively cooler waters and encounters strong shear.\nThe official intensity forecast is close to the latest Florida State\nUniversity Superensemble prediction, and Kenneth should weaken to a\ndepression and degenerate to a remnant low in 48 hours or sooner.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains 330/10 kt.  There is no need\nto make significant changes to the track forecast from the previous\nadvisory package.  Kenneth should continue to move through a\nweakness in the subtropical ridge created by a mid-level trough\nnear 140W longitude.  Later in the forecast period, the shallow\nvortex should turn leftward following the low-level flow.  The\nofficial track forecast is only slightly to the right of the\nconsensus, and leans toward the GFS and ECMWF tracks.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 21.8N 133.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 23.1N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 24.9N 135.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 26.3N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 27.5N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/1800Z 29.0N 137.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  27/1800Z 31.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017\n\nKenneth continues to slowly weaken.  The eye feature that was\nevident several hours ago has filled in, and a recent SSMIS\nmicrowave pass shows that the system is now more asymmetric due to\nsoutherly shear.  A pair of ASCAT passes from around 1800 UTC showed\nmaximum winds in the 55-60 kt range.  Assuming some weakening since\nthe time of that data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt.\nThis estimate is also in agreement with a blend of the latest T- and\nCI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University\nof Wisconsin.\n\nKenneth is over cool 24 deg C waters, surrounded by dry air, and\nmoving toward an environment of even higher southerly wind shear.\nThese hostile conditions should cause the system to keep weakening,\nand the NHC forecast now calls for Kenneth to become a remnant low\nin 36 hours.  The remnant low will likely only slowly spin down as\ndepicted by the global models.  This intensity forecast is largely\nan update of the previous one.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt on the\nwest side of a mid-level ridge.  This general motion with a\ndecrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while\nthe system moves into a pronounced weakness in the ridge.  By the\nend of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn\nto the northwest in the low-level flow.  Little change was made to\nthe previous NHC track prediction, and this forecast lies closest\nto the various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 22.6N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017\n\nConventional satellite imagery shows continued deterioration of\nKenneth's cloud pattern.  A moderate southwesterly wind shear regime\nand oceanic temperatures of less than 24.5C have certainly taken its\ntoll on the cyclone.  A compromise of the subjective and objective\nintensity estimates is the basis of lowering the initial intensity\nto 50 kt for this advisory.  The aforementioned shear and cool\nwater, along with a continued intruding stable air mass from\nthe north, should result in a gradual spin down of Kenneth with\nweakening to a remnant low in about 24 hours, and dissipation in 5\ndays.  The official intensity forecast follows the IVCN and\nDecay-SHIPS models, and reflects the previous advisory's weakening\ntrend.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be north-northwestward, or\n340/9 kt.  Kenneth should continue to move north-northwestward\nduring the next 36-48 hours in a break in a subtropical ridge\ncreated by a high amplitude upper-level trough extending\nnortheastward from the eastern Hawaiian Islands.  Afterward, the\ncyclone is forecast to degenerate to a vertically shallow remnant\nlow and move within the lower tropospheric southeasterly flow.\nThere is some increasing spread in the global models beyond day 3.\nThe UKMET and GFS indicate a more accelerated rate of weakening than\nthe ECMWF.  Consequently, the weaker Kenneth reflected in the\nUKMET/GFS decreases significantly in forward speed and turns\nwest-northwestward in the shallow steering current while a more\nvertically coherent cyclone in the ECMWF continues northwestward\nwith little reduction in speed. The NHC track forecast is a blend of\nboth of these solutions and is very close to the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 23.5N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 24.8N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 26.4N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  24/1800Z 27.6N 136.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  25/0600Z 28.4N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  26/0600Z 29.4N 137.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  27/0600Z 30.4N 138.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017\n\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data indicate that Harvey has\nregenerated in the Bay of Campeche, with a closed circulation\nnoted and a central pressure of about 1006 mb.  The initial wind\nspeed is 30 kt based on SFMR data from the aircraft.\n\nHarvey is not well organized at the moment, with an asymmetric cloud\npattern and a large radius of maximum wind.  The environment,\nhowever, is conducive for intensification while Harvey moves over\nthe very warm Gulf of Mexico waters in light-to-moderate shear.  The\nbiggest hindrance to intensification in the short term is the poor\nstructure.  Thus the NHC forecast will only show a gradual increase\nin wind speed during the first day, with a more significant\nintensification after that time.  Although not explicitly forecast\nbelow, we are anticipating Harvey being a hurricane at landfall\nafter the 48 hour forecast point.  This forecast agrees well with\nthe guidance, almost all of which shows a quickly intensifying\ncyclone approaching the Texas coast.\n\nSince the center has just recently formed, the initial motion is\ndifficult to estimate, but the long-term motion is 310/8.  Harvey is\nexpected to move more slowly toward the northwest or north-\nnorthwest as it enters a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge\nduring the next day or so.  The ridge slightly strengthens by late\nThursday, which should cause a faster northwestward motion by then.\nAround the time of landfall, however, Harvey should enter an area of\nweaker steering currents near the upper Texas coast as high pressure\nrebuilds over the southwestern United States.  The storm should slow\ndown markedly over southeast Texas, and there is considerable\nuncertainty on exactly how fast Harvey moves out of that state ahead\nof the next mid-latitude trough.  For now the NHC forecast will just\ndrift Harvey generally toward the east at days 4 and 5, on\nthe slow side of the model consensus. Hopefully later G-IV flights\nand special soundings over the southern United States will help\nclarify the long range forecast.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards to portions of the\nTexas coast beginning on Friday.\n\n2. Several days of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of\neastern Texas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from\nFriday through early next week. This rainfall could cause life-\nthreatening flooding. Please refer to products from your local\nNational Weather Service office (www.weather.gov) and the NOAA\nWeather Prediction Center (www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov) for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.\n\n3. The National Weather Service has issued a Storm Surge Watch\nfrom Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas. There is the possibility\nof life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from\nthe coastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. For a\ndepiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service\nStorm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at\nhurricanes.gov.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map will also be available on\nthe NHC website by 1200 PM CDT. Remember that the Potential Storm\nSurge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected\ninundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location. Because the Flooding Map is\nbased on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best\nrepresents the flooding potential in those locations within the\nwatch area.\n\n5. Hurricane conditions are possible along the Texas coast from\nPort Mansfield to San Luis Pass.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 21.5N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 22.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 23.8N  93.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 25.2N  94.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 26.7N  96.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 29.0N  97.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  27/1200Z 29.8N  96.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  28/1200Z 30.0N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n800 AM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017\n\nPractically all of Kenneth's deep convection has dissipated while\nthe system traverses SSTs near 23 deg C.  Using a blend of\nsubjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates yields a\ncurrent intensity of 35 kt.  The cyclone is likely to continue to\nweaken due to cool waters and strong south-southwesterly shear\nassociated with a broad upper-level trough to its west.  Kenneth\nshould become a post-tropical cyclone in 12 to 24 hours or sooner.\n\nThe latest center fixes indicate that the motion has bent a little\nto the left and is now around 330/10 kt.  Kenneth or the post-\ntropical cyclone should continue to move through a break in the\nsubtropical ridge on a generally north-northwestward heading with\nsome deceleration over the next couple of days.  Later in the\nforecast period, when the cyclone is likely to be very weak and\nshallow, a turn toward the northwest is expected following the\nlow-level flow. The official track forecast is close to the latest\nHFIP Corrected Consensus prediction.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 24.6N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 25.8N 135.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 27.1N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  25/0000Z 28.0N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  25/1200Z 28.6N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  26/1200Z 29.7N 137.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  27/1200Z 30.7N 139.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017\n\nHigh-resolution visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern\nof Harvey is a little better organized than it was this morning, but\nthe system lacks distinct banding features.  Surface synoptic\nobservations, ASCAT data, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and\nSAB indicated that the cyclone has not strengthened, so the current\nintensity is held at 30 kt.  The global models predict that an\nupper-level low over the northwest Gulf of Mexico will essentially\ndissipate in a day or so.  Therefore, Harvey is expected to remain\nin a relatively low-shear environment up to the Texas coast.\nMoreover, ocean analyses show that a warm eddy that broke off from\nthe Loop Current has drifted westward across the Gulf to a location\nnear the projected path of Harvey.  This would also be conducive to\nstrengthening, so it is likely that the system will become a\nhurricane prior to landfall, although this is not explicitly shown\nin the NHC forecast for which landfall is indicated between 48 and\n72 hours.\n\nBased on the scatterometer data and geostationary satellite fixes\nthe center hasn't moved much this afternoon, although recent imagery\nsuggests a northwestward drift at about 320/2 kt.  A weak mid-level\nridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move\non a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48 hours.\nLater, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the\nsouthwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains.\nAs a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and\nmove very slowly just inland of the coast.  Some of the track\nguidance models, such as the HWRF, have shifted southwestward in\ncomparison to their previous run.  The official track forecast is\nvery close to the previous one through 48 hours and is a little\nslower and to the west after that time.  This is very close to the\nlatest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.  It should be noted that\nsynoptic surveillance data are currently being collected by the NOAA\nG-IV jet aircraft and these data will be assimilated into, and\nhopefully improve the forecasts by, the global models.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy\nrainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions\nof the Texas coast beginning on Friday.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern\nTexas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday\nthrough early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.\nPlease refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.\n\n3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High\nIsland, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening\ninundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the\nnext 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm\nSurge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite.  This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location.  Because the Flooding Map is\nbased on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best\nrepresents the flooding potential in those locations within the\nwatch area.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 21.6N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 22.4N  93.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 23.8N  93.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 25.1N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 26.4N  96.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 28.6N  97.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  27/1800Z 29.0N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  28/1800Z 29.0N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Kenneth Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017\n200 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017\n\nKenneth's organized deep convection has been gone for over 12 hours\nnow.  Satellite images also suggest it is losing its tropical\ncharacter, with some possible frontal structures developing near\nand northeast of the center.  Thus, it no longer meets the\nrequirements of a tropical cyclone, and this is the final advisory.\nThe wind speed is held at 35 kt owing to the tight low-level\ncirculation seen on visible imagery. The post-tropical cyclone\nshould gradually spin down over cold waters and generally move\nnorth-northwestward with some decrease in forward speed over the\nnext couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, when the cyclone\nis likely to be very weak and shallow, a turn toward the northwest\nis expected following the low-level flow. The official track\nforecast is very close to the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 25.4N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  24/0600Z 26.4N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  24/1800Z 27.5N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  25/0600Z 28.1N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  25/1800Z 28.7N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  26/1800Z 30.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  27/1800Z 31.2N 139.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest\nthat Harvey's structure has consolidated a little bit, with the\npressure falling to 1002 mb and the radius of maximum winds\nshrinking to 60 n mi.  However, there have been no reliable reports\nof winds indicating that the cyclone has reached tropical-storm\nstrength, and the convective cloud pattern remains ragged. Based on\nthese data, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Perhaps the most\nsignificant finding of the aircraft is that the center was to the\neast of the previous advisory position.\n\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 325/2.  A weak mid-level\nridge to the northeast of Harvey should cause the cyclone to move\non a northwestward or north-northwestward track through 48-72 h,\nand this motion should bring the center inland over southern Texas.\nLater, steering currents weaken as a ridge builds over the\nsouthwestern United States and a trough drops down from the Plains.\nAs a result, Harvey should decelerate while making landfall and\nmove very slowly just inland of the coast.  There is a major spread\namongst the large-scale models from 72-120 h, with the UKMET\nforecasting a slow northward motion into eastern Texas, the GFS a\nsouthwestward motion over Texas, and the ECMWF a cyclonic loop that\nmoves the system back over the Gulf of Mexico.  Given the\nuncertainty, the new forecast track shows a slow motion over\nsouthern Texas during that time, with a change from the small right\nturn of the previous forecast to a small left turn.  Overall, the\ntrack lies a little to the right of the consensus models through 72\nh.\n\nAn upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery over the\nnorthwestern Gulf of Mexico appears to be weakening, and as this\nhappens Harvey should end up in a low shear environment.  This\nshould allow strengthening over deep warm water in the western Gulf\nof Mexico.  The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly to show\nHarvey explicitly becoming a hurricane in 48 h, and some additional\nstrengthening could occur between the 48 h point and landfall.\nAfter landfall, Harvey is expected to weaken.  However, the\nforecast track keeps the system close enough to the Texas coast\nthat this weakening is likely to be slower than normal.\n\nSince Harvey has moved slower than anticipated during the past\n6-12 h, warnings are not yet required for portions of the Texas\ncoast.  Warnings are likely to be issued sometime on Thursday.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy\nrainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions\nof the Texas coast beginning on Friday.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern\nTexas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday\nthrough early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.\nPlease refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.\n\n3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Port Mansfield to High\nIsland, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening\ninundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the\nnext 48 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm\nSurge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite.  This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location.  Because the Flooding Map is\nbased on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best\nrepresents the flooding potential in those locations within the\nwatch area.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 21.9N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 22.8N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 24.1N  94.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 25.4N  95.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 26.6N  96.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 28.5N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  28/0000Z 28.5N  98.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  29/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017\n\nNOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been sampling\nHarvey during the past few hours.  Both aircraft indicate that\nHarvey is becoming better organized and the central pressure is\nfalling. An average of the flight-level winds and the SFMR yield an\ninitial intensity of 40 kt. There are some unconfirmed reports of\nstronger winds at flight-level to the northeast of the center,\nbut I am waiting for the plane to go back to that area for\nconfirmation.\n\nIt appears that the environment has finally become favorable\nand all of the guidance calls for intensification. In fact, the\nRapid Intensification Index is up to 45 percent. The current NHC\nforecast is a little lower than the model consensus to maintain\ncontinuity from the previous advisory. If the current intensity\ntrend continues, the winds will have to be adjusted upward\nin the next advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is toward the north or 360 degrees at 9 kt.\nHowever, this is a combination of motion and reformation under the\nconvection. Harvey is already on the western edge of the\nsubtropical ridge extending from the Atlantic westward across the\nGulf of Mexico. This pattern will steer the cyclone on a general\nnorthwest to north-northwest track for the next 2 to 3 days. Once\nHarvey makes landfall in Texas, most of the global models predict\nthat the steering currents will collapse and Harvey will begin to\nmeander over Texas and perhaps will move back into the northwestern\nGulf of Mexico.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is likely to bring multiple hazards, including heavy\nrainfall, storm surge, and possible hurricane conditions to portions\nof the Texas coast beginning on Friday.\n\n2. Heavy rainfall is likely to spread across portions of eastern\nTexas, Louisiana, and the lower Mississippi Valley from Friday\nthrough early next week and could cause life-threatening flooding.\nPlease refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.\n\n3. A Storm Surge Warning is now effect from Port Mansfield to\nSan Luis Pass, Texas, indicating the possibility of life-threatening\ninundation from rising water moving inland from the coast during the\nnext 36 hours.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm\nSurge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite.  This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location.  Because the Flooding Map is\nbased on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best\nrepresents the flooding potential in those locations within the\nwatch area.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 23.2N  92.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 24.0N  93.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 25.1N  94.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 26.3N  95.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 27.5N  97.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 28.5N  97.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  28/0600Z 28.5N  97.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  29/0600Z 27.6N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017\n\nData from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that\nHarvey is quickly strengthening, and the cyclone's structure has\nimproved markedly with the plane reporting a closed 15-20 n mi wide\neye.  The flight-level and SFMR winds support an intensity of 55 kt,\nbut one of the more notable measurements is the central pressure,\nwhich has fallen to 982 mb.  With a pressure this low, it is likely\nthat the winds will respond and increase further, and Harvey\nprobably isn't too far from becoming a hurricane.\n\nWith Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in\nprevious advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite\nconcerning.  Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone's outflow\nis expanding--indicative of low shear--and Harvey will be moving\nover a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of\nMexico in about 24 hours.  As a result of these conditions, several\nintensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now\nexplicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity.  What's\nmore astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification\nindices are incredibly high.  As an example, the guidance is\nindicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey's winds increasing by 45 kt\nover the next 36 hours.  Based on this guidance, the NHC official\nintensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane\nstrength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.\n\nAircraft fixes indicate that Harvey has turned toward the north-\nnorthwest, and the initial motion estimate is 340/9 kt.  A mid-\nlevel high centered near Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico\nshould force Harvey toward the northwest later today, with that\ntrajectory continuing for the next couple of days.  By 48 hours,\nthe cyclone appears to get sandwiched between the same mid-level\nhigh over the Gulf of Mexico and a larger high over the\nIntermountain West, which will cause Harvey to slow down\nconsiderably during its approach toward the Texas coast and then\npotentially stall just inland on days 3 through 5.  Mainly based on\nan adjustment of the initial position, the NHC forecast track has\nbeen nudged northeastward on this cycle, but it still lies\nrelatively close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and the HFIP\nCorrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).\n\nIt is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track\nof Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely.  All\nlocations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should\nbe preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and\nlife-threatening storm surge.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey has intensified quickly this morning, and is now forecast\nto be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm\nsurge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be completed by\ntonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the\nhurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 10\nfeet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of\nthe Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of\nareas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at\nhurricanes.gov.\n\n3. Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas\ncoast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts\nas high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please\nrefer to products from your local National Weather Service office\nand the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the\nflooding hazard.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location. This map best represents\nthe flooding potential in those locations within the watch and\nwarning areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 24.0N  93.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 24.9N  94.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 26.0N  95.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 27.3N  96.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 28.3N  97.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  27/1200Z 29.0N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  28/1200Z 28.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  29/1200Z 28.5N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-08-24 18:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Special Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017\n\nThis special advisory is being issued to update Harvey's initial\nand forecast intensities through the 48-hour period. The storm\nsurge values in the public advisory have also been updated based on\nthe new intensity forecast.\n\nRecent data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter\naircraft indicate that Harvey's maximum sustained winds have\nincreased to 75 kt.  The Air Force plane measured maximum 850-mb\nflight-level winds of 88 kt and reliable SFMR winds around 75 kt.\nBased on the hurricane's current rate of intensification, the\nforecast intensities at 12 and 24 h have been raised by 15 kt,\nwith a 10-kt increase at 36 h.  There are no changes to the track or\nwind radii forecast with this special advisory.\n\nIt is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track\nof Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely.  All\nlocations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should\nbe preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and\nlife-threatening storm surge.\n\nNote that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled\n100 PM CDT (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey has intensified rapidly, and is forecast to be a major\nhurricane at landfall, bringing life-threatening storm surge,\nrainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas coast.\nPreparations to protect life and property should be completed by\ntonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first arrive in the\nhurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12\nfeet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of\nthe Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of\nareas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at\nhurricanes.gov.\n\n3. Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas\ncoast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts\nas high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please\nrefer to products from your local National Weather Service office\nand the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the\nflooding hazard.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location. This map best represents\nthe flooding potential in those locations within the watch and\nwarning areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1800Z 24.4N  93.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 24.9N  94.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 26.0N  95.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 27.3N  96.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 28.3N  97.0W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  27/1200Z 29.0N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  28/1200Z 28.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  29/1200Z 28.5N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017\n\nSince the issuance of the special advisory at 1800 UTC, data from a\ndropsonde released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated\nthat Harvey's central pressure has dropped to 976 mb.  However, the\nplane has not measured winds stronger than what was observed by the\nprevious Air Force flight (although the NOAA P3 is flying a\nresearch mission at a nonstandard level).  For now, the initial\nintensity will remain 75 kt pending data from another Air Force\nflight this evening.\n\nHarvey's initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt.  A strengthening\nmid-level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to push\nHarvey northwestward by tonight, and a northwest or north-northwest\nmotion should continue up until landfall.  However, a stronger\nmid-level high centered over the western United States is forecast\nto cause Harvey to slow down considerably and stall near or just\ninland of the Texas coast by days 3 and 4.  After that time, the\ntrack models have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly\neastward by day 5, but it's too early to know if the center will\nremain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.\nThe track guidance is very tightly clustered for the first 36-48\nhours, which covers the period of landfall, but then there is much\ngreater spread in the models after 48 hours when Harvey is forecast\nto slow down.  Such guidance is usually an indication that the\ncyclone will move very little, which is reflected in the official\nforecast.\n\nHarvey remains in an environment for further strengthening.\nVertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm\neddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next\n12-24 hours.  As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for\nadditional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with\nHarvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday.\nThere may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to\nthe possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow\nshelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach\nthe coast as a major hurricane.  The intensity forecast after 48\nhours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey\nmoves into Texas.  If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent\nmodel trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to\nmaintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its\ncirculation remaining over water.  For that reason, the updated NHC\nintensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3\nthrough 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this\npart of the forecast.\n\nIt is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track\nof Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely.  All\nlocations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should\nbe preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and\nlife-threatening storm surge.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing\nlife-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions\nof the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should\nbe completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first\narrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12\nfeet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of\nthe Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of\nareas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at\nhurricanes.gov.\n\n3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next\nWednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location. This map best represents\nthe flooding potential in those locations within the watch and\nwarning areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 24.7N  93.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 25.5N  94.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 26.7N  96.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 27.8N  96.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 28.5N  97.1W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  27/1800Z 28.7N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  28/1800Z 28.5N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  29/1800Z 29.0N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017\n\nHarvey's rapid intensification seems to have slowed for the moment,\nas an eye seen earlier in satellite imagery has lost definition\nduring the past few hours.  In addition, reports from an Air Force\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that 700-mb flight level\nwinds are in the 75-80 kt range, with reliable surface wind\nestimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer remaining\nnear 75 kt.  The aircraft also reported that the central pressure\nhas slowly fallen to 973 mb inside the 16 n mi wide eye.  Based on\nthese data, the initial intensity remains 75 kt, and this could be a\nlittle conservative.\n\nHarvey has turned a little to the left since the last advisory with\nthe initial motion now 315/9.  A mid-level anticyclone over the\neastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to steer Harvey generally\nnorthwestward with a decreasing forward speed for the next 36-48 h,\nwith the center now forecast to make landfall on the middle Texas\ncoast in about 36 h.  This part of the new forecast track has been\nnudged a little to the left based mainly on the initial position\nand motion.  After landfall, the cyclone is likely to get stuck\nbetween the Gulf anticyclone and a stronger anticyclone over the\nwestern United States, with little motion likely from 48-96 h.\nA slow eastward motion appears likely by 120 h due to the influence\nof a trough in the westerlies digging into the eastern United\nStates.  There is some spread in the guidance at that time, with\nthe GFS showing Harvey drifting slowly eastward and the ECMWF\nshowing a faster motion.  The new forecast track splits this\ndifference of 5-day forecasts and lies near the consensus models.\n\nIt is unclear why the intensification has slowed, although it is\npossibly due to some dry air seen earlier wrapping around the north\nside of the core convection.  Otherwise, Harvey remains in an\nfavorable environment for further strengthening with low vertical\nshear and high oceanic heat content.  The intensity forecast will\nuse the scenario that rapid intensification will resume tonight,\nwith Harvey becoming a major hurricane before landfall in Texas.\nAfter landfall, the intensity forecast is based on the scenario that\nHarvey will weaken over land, but it will remain close enough to\nthe coast so that the weakening will be slower than normal.  Thus,\nthe forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm from 72-120 h.\n\nIt is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track\nof Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are likely.  All\nlocations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should\nbe preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and\nlife-threatening storm surge.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing\nlife-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions\nof the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should\nbe completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first\narrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12\nfeet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of\nthe Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of\nareas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at\nhurricanes.gov.\n\n3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next\nWednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location. This map best represents\nthe flooding potential in those locations within the watch and\nwarning areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 25.2N  94.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 26.1N  95.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 27.2N  96.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 28.1N  97.1W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  27/0000Z 28.6N  97.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  28/0000Z 28.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  29/0000Z 28.5N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  30/0000Z 29.5N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation has improved during the past several\nhours with an intermittent eye feature surrounded by a ring of very\ndeep convection. There are various cyclonically curved convective\nbands primarily to the north of the eye and the outflow is fair.\nNOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes penetrated the eye\nvarious times during the past several hours, and the most\nsignificant data were a flight-level peak wind of 103 knots, and a\npeak SFMR surface wind of 88 kt. The central pressure dropped\nto 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity was adjusted\nupward to 90 kt. Another reconnaissance plane will be in the eye of\nHarvey shortly.\n\nSince Harvey is embedded within light shear and moving over warm\nwaters, additional strengthening is anticipated before landfall in\nabout 24 hours.  Thereafter, gradual weakening is forecast but since\na good portion of the circulation will remain over water, the\nweakening process could be slower than normal.\n\nRadar and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Harvey is moving toward\nthe northwest or 320 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is on the\nwestern edge of a persistent area of high pressure over the eastern\nGulf of Mexico, and this pattern will maintain the current hurricane\nmotion until landfall.  Once Harvey is inland over Texas, the\nsteering currents are forecast to collapse and the cyclone should\nbegin to meander, prolonging the flooding conditions for several\ndays. The track guidance between now and landfall is very consistent\nand there is high confidence in the track forecast. After landfall,\nthe track models show large variability and the confidence is low.\nIn any case, NHC forecast depicts a slow moving tropical cyclone\nnear or over Texas for the next five days.\n\nOnce again, it is very critical that users not focus on the exact\nforecast track of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustments are\nlikely.  All locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning\nareas should be preparing for the possibility of major\nhurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing\nlife-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions\nof the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should\nbe completed this morning, as tropical-storm-force winds will first\narrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas later today.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12\nfeet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of\nthe Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of\nareas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at\nhurricanes.gov.\n\n3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from today through next\nWednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location. This map best represents\nthe flooding potential in those locations within the watch and\nwarning areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 25.9N  95.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 26.9N  96.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 28.0N  97.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 28.5N  97.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  27/0600Z 28.5N  97.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  28/0600Z 28.3N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  29/0600Z 28.5N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n120H  30/0600Z 29.5N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017\n\nMultiple observing platforms indicate that Harvey's structure is\nevolving this morning.  The hurricane has developed concentric\neyewalls, as observed in data from the WSR-88D Doppler radars in\nBrownsville and Corpus Christi, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane\nHunter plane reported double wind maxima with diameters of 12 and\n28 n mi.  The aircraft data indicate that the central pressure has\ncontinued to fall--now down to 947 mb--but the maximum winds have\nnot increased further.  This discrepancy is not surprising given\nhurricane's current structure.\n\nIntensity forecasts become complicated once a hurricane develops\nconcentric eyewalls, and fluctuations in intensity become more\nlikely.  If an eyewall replacement occurs, then Harvey's intensity\ncould decrease a bit while at the same time the overall wind field\nincreases in size.  However, the hurricane remains in an environment\nfor intensification, and strengthening beyond the current intensity\nis still possible before the center reaches land.  But in the end,\nthe hurricane's exact intensity at landfall does not change the\nfact that catastrophic flooding due to a prolonged period of heavy\nrainfall and/or storm surge is expected at the coast and well inland\nacross much of southern and southeastern Texas.  Slow weakening is\nexpected after Harvey crosses the coast since the center is not\nexpected to move very far inland, and the cyclone is likely to\nmaintain tropical storm status through Wednesday.\n\nHarvey has not quite begun to slow down, and the initial motion\nestimate is 315/9 kt.  Strong mid-level ridging building over the\nwestern United States is still expected to impede Harvey's forward\nmotion in the coming days, and the track guidance continues to show\nthe hurricane meandering or stalling near or just inland of the\nTexas coast in 36-48 hours.  Harvey could begin moving slowly\neastward on days 4 and 5 due to the influence of a mid-level\nshortwave trough digging southward over the upper Midwest, but at\nthis time it is too early to say whether the center will definitely\nre-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall\ntonight, bringing life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind\nhazards to portions of the Texas coast. Preparations should be\nrushed to completion in the warning areas as tropical-storm-force\nwinds are arriving on the coast, and conditions will continue to\ndeteriorate through the rest of today and tonight.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12\nfeet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of\nthe Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of\nareas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at\nhurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged\nperiod of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for\nseveral days.\n\n3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, through Wednesday.\nPlease refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.\n\n4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC\nwebsite. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded at each individual location. This map best represents\nthe flooding potential in those locations within the watch and\nwarning areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 26.7N  96.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 27.6N  96.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 28.4N  97.3W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  27/0000Z 28.8N  97.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  27/1200Z 28.9N  97.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  28/1200Z 28.3N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  29/1200Z 28.5N  95.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n120H  30/1200Z 30.0N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017\n\nDespite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey's winds have\nincreased during the day.  NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane\nHunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt\nand SFMR winds to 102 kt.  Based on these data, Harvey's maximum\nsurface winds are estimated to be 110 kt.  Harvey's central pressure\nhas also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on\ndropsonde data is 941 mb.\n\nHarvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is\n325/9 kt.  Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make\nlandfall along the middle Texas coast tonight.  After that, the\ntrack models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably\nduring the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little\nbetween 36 and 120 hours.  In fact, there has been a somewhat\nnotable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing\nHarvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day\nforecast period.  As a result, the NHC track forecast has been\npulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas\ncoast through the middle of next week.  This slow motion only\nexacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern\nand southeastern Texas.\n\nHarvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has\nbefore landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at\nmajor hurricane strength.  Gradual weakening is anticipated after\nthe center moves inland, but Harvey's slow motion will keep a\nsignificant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow\nthe weakening rate.  As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans\ncloser to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-\ndynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast.  Harvey\ncould maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day\nforecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of\nMexico.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey will make landfall tonight, bringing life-threatening\nstorm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas\ncoast. Tropical-storm-force winds have moved onshore in portions of\nthe warning areas and conditions will continue to deteriorate as\nthe eye of Harvey approaches the middle Texas coast tonight.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12\nfeet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of\nthe Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of\nareas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at\nhurricanes.gov. Due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged\nperiod of onshore flow, water levels will remain elevated for\nseveral days.\n\n3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.\nPlease refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 27.5N  96.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 28.2N  97.0W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  26/1800Z 28.8N  97.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  27/0600Z 28.9N  97.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  27/1800Z 28.6N  97.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  28/1800Z 28.1N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  29/1800Z 28.5N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n120H  30/1800Z 29.5N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017\n\nHarvey has continued to slowly strengthen since the last advisory.\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data earlier indicated\n700-mb flight-level winds near 130 kt, and there have been multiple\nestimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer of winds\nof 110-115 kt.  In addition, there have been winds of 135-150 kt\nobserved at 2500-3000 ft in the north eyewall by the Corpus Christi\nWSR-88D.  Based on these, Harvey is making landfall at this time as\na category 4 hurricane with winds near 115 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 325/6, a little slower than before.  The eye\nof Harvey should continue this general motion for the next several\nhours, which would bring it inland over southeastern Texas.  After\n12 h or so, the hurricane should become embedded in an area of weak\nsteering currents and become nearly stationary.  The track guidance\nis in good agreement that Harvey will move slowly through at least\n72 h, and the new forecast track shows a slow cyclonic loop during\nthat time.  After 72 h, an equally slow motion toward the north or\nnortheast appears likely.  It is unclear at this time whether the\ncenter of Harvey will emerge over the Gulf of Mexico, as the\nguidance is in poor agreement on that.  It is clear, though, that\nHarvey will remain over southeastern Texas or the adjacent waters\nthrough the forecast period, thus producing a major rainfall and\nflooding threat.\n\nGradual weakening is now anticipated as Harvey moves farther\ninland.  However, a large amount of the circulation should remain\nover the Gulf of Mexico, and the weakening is likely to be slower\nthan normal.  The new intensity forecast is slightly changed from\nthe previous forecast, but it still calls for Harvey to remain a\nhurricane through 24 h and remain a tropical storm through the\nforecast period.  The forecast is based on the premise that the\ncenter will remain over land, and the intensities could be higher if\nthe center emerges over the Gulf of Mexico.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is making landfall at this time, bringing life-threatening\nstorm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions of the Texas\ncoast. Hurricane conditions have been reported in the landfall\narea.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 9 to\n13 feet above ground level at the coast between Port Aransas and\nPort O'Connor.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm\nSurge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow\nmotion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow, water\nlevels will remain elevated for several days.\n\n3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.\nPlease refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 28.0N  97.0W  115 KT 130 MPH...ON COAST\n 12H  26/1200Z 28.6N  97.3W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  27/0000Z 29.0N  97.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  27/1200Z 29.0N  97.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  28/0000Z 28.7N  97.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  29/0000Z 28.0N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  30/0000Z 28.5N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/0000Z 29.5N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017\n\nHarvey's eye has moved inland gradually during the past few hours,\nand maximum winds have decreased significantly since landfall.\nRadar velocity data from the Corpus Christi NOAA Doppler radar are\nshowing winds as high as 90 kt at an elevation of 3000-3500 ft in\nthe northwestern eyewall.  The advisory intensity is therefore set\nat 85 kt, which could still be a little generous.  Continued\nweakening is expected as Harvey's eye continues to move inland, and\nmaximum sustained winds are likely to fall below hurricane force\nlater today.  A more gradual weakening trend is anticipated after\nthat point, and Harvey is forecast to maintain tropical storm\nstrength at least through day 4, especially if part of its\ncirculation remains over water.  The updated NHC intensity forecast\ncontinues a similar weakening trend noted in previous advisories and\nis closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).\n\nThe initial motion has continued to decrease, and it is now\nestimated to be 325/5 kt.  As the steering currents around Harvey\ncontinue to collapse, the cyclone is expected to stall or meander\ninland over southeastern Texas.  Only a few models show any sort of\ndefinitive northeastward motion at the end of the forecast period,\nand for the most part, the most reliable models keep Harvey over\nsoutheastern Texas through day 5.  The NHC track forecast depicts\nHarvey taking a slow counterclockwise loop just inland from the\ncoast.  This track is expected to exacerbate the potential for\ncatastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least through the\nmiddle of next week.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Harvey is moving farther inland over southeastern Texas and\ncontinues to bring life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind\nhazards to portions of the Texas coast.\n\n2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.\nLife-threatening storm surge flooding could still reach heights of 6\nto 12 feet above ground level at the coast between Port Aransas and\nPort O'Connor.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm\nSurge Watch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov. Due to the slow\nmotion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore flow, water\nlevels will remain elevated for several days.\n\n3. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Wednesday.\nPlease refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 28.5N  97.2W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  26/1800Z 28.8N  97.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  27/0600Z 29.0N  97.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  27/1800Z 28.7N  97.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  28/0600Z 28.5N  97.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  29/0600Z 28.3N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  30/0600Z 29.0N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/0600Z 30.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Harvey","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Harvey Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017\n\nHarvey has been inland for about 12 hours and weakening is under\nway. Doppler radar data indicate that winds have decreased to 65 kt,\nand that is the intensity used in this advisory. Since Harvey is\nover land, a continued weakening is anticipated, and the NHC\nforecast uses the trend provided by the SHIPS decay model.  However,\nif a portion of Harvey's circulation remains over the Gulf of\nMexico, the cyclone could weaken at a slower rate than shown here.\n\nThe hurricane is moving very slowly toward the north at about 2 kt.\nHarvey is embedded within very light steering currents, and global\nmodels keep this weak flow in place for the next several days. Based\non this pattern, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5\ndays over southeast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. The only\nagreement among the track guidance is that Harvey is certainly not\ngoing anywhere fast.\n\nThis slow motion of the cyclone is expected to exacerbate the\npotential for catastrophic flooding from heavy rainfall at least\nthrough the middle of next week.\n\nPlease note that hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates (TCUs) have been\ndiscontinued due to the degradation of Harvey's center on radar.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. While Harvey's winds have begun to weaken, life-threatening\nhazards will continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern\nTexas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.\n\n2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 30 inches,\nwith isolated amounts as high as 40 inches, through Thursday.\nPlease heed the advice of local officials and do not drive into\nflooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local National\nWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for\nmore information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall\ntotals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:\nwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the\nTexas.  Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to recede\ndue to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of onshore\nflow.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge\nWatch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 28.9N  97.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  27/0000Z 29.1N  97.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  27/1200Z 29.2N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  28/0000Z 29.0N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  28/1200Z 28.7N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  29/1200Z 28.7N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  30/1200Z 29.5N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/1200Z 30.5N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila/Lapenta\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017\n\nHarvey has continued to weaken while located inland over Texas.\nDoppler radar data indicate that winds are now 55 kt, and since\nthere are no surface observations near the center, this is the\nintensity used in this advisory. A continued weakening is\nanticipated, and the NHC forecast uses the trend provided by the\nSHIPS decay model. However, if a large portion of Harvey's\ncirculation remains over the Gulf of Mexico, the cyclone could\nweaken at a slower rate than shown here.\n\nHarvey has barely moved during the past few hours and little motion\nis anticipated. Since the steering currents are forecast to remain\nlight, Harvey could easily meander for the next 4 to 5 days over\nsoutheast Texas as indicated in the NHC forecast. Guidance disagrees\nin which direction the cyclone will move, but all the models agree\nthat any motion will be quite slow.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards\nwill continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern\nTexas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.\n\n2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to\n25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through\nThursday.  Please heed the advice of local officials and do not\ndrive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local\nNational Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction\nCenter for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of\nrainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be\nfound at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the\nTexas coast.  Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to\nrecede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of\nonshore flow.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge\nWatch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 29.1N  97.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  27/0600Z 29.1N  97.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  27/1800Z 28.9N  97.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  28/0600Z 28.5N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  28/1800Z 28.3N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  29/1800Z 28.7N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  30/1800Z 29.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  31/1800Z 30.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 26 2017\n\nThe central convection associated with Harvey has shown warming\ncloud tops during the past several hours, although radar data shows\nwidespread rain continuing near and north of the center.  Winds\nfrom the New Braunfels WSR-88D are near 65 kt at 1500-2500 ft near\nthe center, but it is uncertain how well these winds are mixing down\nto the surface. The initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat\nuncertain 45 kt based mainly on the radar data.\n\nHarvey has drifted east-northeastward since the last advisory.\nWhile the model guidance is not in great agreement, it appears that\nthe cyclone will drift southward or southeastward during the next\ncouple of days due to the distant influence of a trough digging into\nthe eastern United States.  After that time, a building ridge over\nthe Gulf of Mexico should cause Harvey to drift generally\nnorthward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track\nand lies near the consensus models.  At this time, the forecast\ntrack keeps the center of Harvey inland, as there is not enough\nagreement between the models that the center of Harvey will actually\nemerge over water.\n\nHarvey should continue to weaken to a tropical depression during the\nnext day or so as the cyclone remains inland.  As the center nears\nthe coast, it is likely that the cyclone will maintain that status\nfor several days as a large amount of the circulation will be over\nthe water.  By the end of the forecast period, the system should be\nfar enough inland so that Harvey will again weaken.  An alternative\nscenario is that Harvey could re-intensify if the center emerges\nover the Gulf.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards\nwill continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern\nTexas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.\n\n2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to\n25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through\nThursday.  Please heed the advice of local officials and do not\ndrive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local\nNational Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction\nCenter for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of\nrainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be\nfound at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the\nTexas coast.  Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to\nrecede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of\nonshore flow.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge\nWatch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 29.3N  97.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  27/1200Z 29.1N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  28/0000Z 28.9N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  28/1200Z 28.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  29/0000Z 28.4N  96.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  30/0000Z 29.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  31/0000Z 30.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  01/0000Z 31.0N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017\n\nAlthough the radar presentation of the inner core of Harvey has\ndegraded considerably, the system continues to produce intense\nconvection in bands to the east and southeast of the center.  The\ncurrent intensity estimate is set to 40 kt based on surface\nsynoptic data over southeastern Texas.  Since the center is\nexpected to remain mainly over land during the forecast period,\ncontinued weakening is likely.  Given that a significant portion of\nthe circulation is over water, however, this weakening should be\nvery slow to occur.  The official intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the model consensus.\n\nHarvey has been meandering overnight and now appears to be drifting\nsouth-southwestward.  The cyclone is trapped between mid-level\nhighs to its west-northwest and east-southeast.  Over the next\ncouple of days, the flow on the southern periphery of a trough\ndropping over the east-central United States should cause Harvey to\nmove slowly southeastward to eastward.  Later in the forecast\nperiod, increased ridging to east of the cyclone should cause\nHarvey to turn northward.  The official track forecast is close\nto the latest model consensus and brings the center to the coast\nand, briefly, just offshore of southeastern Texas.  At this time,\nit is not expected that Harvey will move far enough out over the\nwater to result in regeneration.\n\nThe biggest concern with Harvey is now the rain, a lot of rain.\nRainfall totals of nearly 20 inches have been reported in the\nHouston area.  This is resulting in catastrophic flooding which,\nunfortunately, will continue for some time.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. While Harvey's winds are decreasing, life-threatening hazards\nwill continue from heavy rainfall over much of southeastern\nTexas and from storm surge along portions of the Texas coast.\n\n2. Catastrophic and life-threatening flooding is expected across the\nmiddle and upper Texas coast from additional rainfall of 15 to\n25 inches, with isolated storm totals as high as 40 inches, through\nThursday.  Please heed the advice of local officials and do not\ndrive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local\nNational Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction\nCenter for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of\nrainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be\nfound at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n3. A Storm Surge Warning remains in effect for portions of the\nTexas coast.  Life-threatening storm surge flooding will be slow to\nrecede due to the slow motion of Harvey and a prolonged period of\nonshore flow.  For a depiction of areas at risk, see the Storm Surge\nWatch/Warning Graphic at hurricanes.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 29.2N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 29.0N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  28/0600Z 28.7N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  28/1800Z 28.5N  96.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 48H  29/0600Z 28.5N  96.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  30/0600Z 29.4N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  31/0600Z 30.8N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  01/0600Z 32.0N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017\n\nHarvey continues to meander over southeastern Texas, where it\nis producing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding rainfall.\nNWS radars show that bands of deep convection continue to develop\nover the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and train over portions of\nsoutheastern Texas, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan\narea.  Rainfall amounts greater than 20-25 inches have already been\nreported and flash flood emergencies and warnings have been issued\nby local National Weather Service offices for a large portion of\nsoutheastern Texas.  Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches\nare expected over the next several days, and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center is now forecasting isolated storm total amounts of\n50 inches.  These historic rainfall amounts will exacerbate the\nalready dire and life-threatening situation.\n\nSurface observations of winds 30-35 kt within a band of convection\nover the western Gulf of Mexico and along the coast of Texas support\nan initial intensity of 35 kt.  The latest track guidance show\nHarvey moving slowly southeastward for the next 24 to 36 hours and\nthe center is likely to move very close to the coast, or even\noffshore, between 24-48 hours.  After that time, Harvey is expected\nto begin a northward motion which should take it inland over eastern\nTexas later in the period.  Since a large portion of the circulation\nis expected to remain over water during the next several days,\nHarvey is maintained as a tropical storm through 72 hours.  However,\nthe strongest winds are likely to occur over the Gulf waters.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15\nto 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50\ninches, through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials.\nDo not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not\ndrive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local\nNational Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction\nCenter for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of\nrainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be\nfound at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 29.0N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 28.6N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  28/1200Z 28.4N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  29/0000Z 28.2N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  29/1200Z 28.2N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  30/1200Z 29.3N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  31/1200Z 30.9N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  01/1200Z 32.2N  95.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017\n\nThe unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over a\nlarge area of southeastern Texas.  While Harvey has been moving\nslowly eastward or east-southeastward today, bands of heavy rainfall\nhave continued to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland\nover much of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana. Storm\ntotal rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range are quite common in\nthe Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall amounts of 15 to\n25 inches are expected over the next several days.  Rainfall total\ncould reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic\nfor that area.\n\nHarvey is still producing tropical-storm-force winds, with a recent\nobservation of 34 kt with a gust to 46 kt at New Braunfels, Texas.\nThe NHC track guidance is in better agreement showing Harvey moving\njust offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then turning northward\nand moving inland over northeastern Texas by 72 hours.  All of the\nglobal models show some slight deepening of the system after it\nmoves over water, but given the lack of an inner core, significant\nstrengthening is not anticipated.  Although a tropical storm watch\nhas been issued, which may need to be extended eastward along\nthe upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coast tonight, heavy\nrainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to the primary\nthreats.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15\nto 25 inches are expected, with isolated storm totals as high as 50\ninches, through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials.\nDo not attempt to travel if you are in a safe place, and do not\ndrive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products from your local\nNational Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction\nCenter for more information on the flooding hazard.  A summary of\nrainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be\nfound at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 29.0N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  28/0600Z 28.7N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  28/1800Z 28.4N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 36H  29/0600Z 28.2N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  29/1800Z 28.4N  95.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  30/1800Z 29.9N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  31/1800Z 31.8N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  01/1800Z 33.5N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n500 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017\n\nConvection associated with the broad area of low pressure located\neast of the Georgia coast has increased markedly today. Visibile\nsatellite imagery shows multiple low-level swirls rotating around a\nmean center, but ASCAT data earlier today showed that the\ncirculation was not yet well-defined. The ASCAT data and buoy\nobservations indicate that the initial intensity is 30 kt, and buoy\ndata suggest the central pressure is around 1007 mb. While the\nsystem is expected to remain sheared, it has a high chance of\nbecoming a tropical depression or tropical storm before it becomes\nbaroclinic in about 48 hours. Given that, and the potential for\nthis system to bring tropical storm conditions to the coast from\nnorthern South Carolina through North Carolina, advisories are\nbeing initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone.\n\nThe system is currently moving little in a region of weak steering,\nbut should begin to move slowly northward and then quickly\naccelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving into\nthe mid-Atlantic states. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the\nglobal models keeping the low center near the coast, but as usual\nthere is more uncertainty than usual in the track forecast for a\nweak/developing system. After the system moves into the western\nAtlantic, it should continue accelerating east-northeastward ahead\nof the upper trough through the end of the period.\n\nDespite the sheared envirionment, the system should be able to\nintensify a little via diabatic processes before it intensifies\nfurther as it undergoes a more substantial baroclinic\nintensification at 48 hours and beyond. The NHC intensity forecast\nfollows the intensity consensus through 36 hours and then follows\nthe trend of the global model guidance and guidance from the NOAA\nOcean Prediction Center.\n\nAlthough the potential impacts are within 36 hours, given the\nuncertainty in whether tropical storm force winds will occur on land\nin northeastern South Caroilna and southeastern North Carolina,\nsouth, a tropical storm watch has been issued for these areas.\nNote that north of Duck, North Carolina, hazards from this system\nwill be handled with non-tropical products issued by local National\nWeather Service offices.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 31.2N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  28/0600Z 31.6N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  28/1800Z 32.4N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 34.1N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  29/1800Z 36.6N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  30/1800Z 40.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  31/1800Z 43.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  01/1800Z 47.0N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Sun Aug 27 2017\n\nThe unprecedented flooding rainfall event continues to unfold over\nmuch of southeastern Texas.  Harvey has been moving slowly east-\nsoutheastward during the past few hours, and heavy rainbands\ncontinue to form over the northwestern Gulf and train inland over\nmuch of the upper Texas coast and southwestern Louisiana.  Storm\ntotal rainfall amounts in the 20-27 inch range have been observed\nacross much of the Greater Houston area, and additional rainfall\namounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected over the next several days.\nRainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which would\nbe historic for that area.\n\nThere haven't been any observations of sustained 34-kt winds over\nland for the past few hours, but the initial intensity remains 35\nkt based on the assumption that higher winds are occuring over\nwater, likely in rainbands.  The track guidance continues to show\nHarvey moving just offshore of the Texas coast on Monday, then\nturning northward and moving inland over northeastern Texas in 48 to\n72 hours.  All of the global models show some slight deepening of\nthe system after it moves over water, but given the lack of an inner\ncore, significant strengthening is not anticipated.  The new NHC\ntrack and intensity forecasts are similar to those from the previous\nadvisory.\n\nAlthough the tropical storm warning has been expanded, and may need\nto be extended eastward along the upper Texas and southwest\nLouisiana coasts tomorrow morning, heavy rainfall and life-\nthreatening flooding continue to be the primary threats.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15\nto 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with\nisolated storm totals as high as 50 inches.  Please heed the advice\nof local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe\nplace, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A\nsummary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center\ncan be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana.\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches\nexpected in south-central Louisiana.  Please heed the advice of\nlocal officials and refer to products from your local National\nWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for\nmore information on the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 28.8N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  28/1200Z 28.6N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 24H  29/0000Z 28.3N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  29/1200Z 28.4N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  30/0000Z 28.8N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  31/0000Z 30.5N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  01/0000Z 32.3N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  02/0000Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017\n\nDeep convection has been increasing in both intensity and coverage\nduring the past several hours in association with Potential\nTropical Cyclone Ten.  However, satellite and radar data indicate\nthat the circulation remains poorly defined, therefore, the\nsystem is not yet a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is\nheld at 30 kt based on the surrounding surface observations and the\nearlier ASCAT data.\n\nThe disturbance is located in weak steering currents, and has been\nmeandering during the last several hours.  A continued slow and\nerratic motion is likely to continue overnight and early Monday.  A\nmid- to upper-level trough currently over the central U.S. is\nexpected to approach the system, and should cause the disturbance\nto begin moving northeastward by late Monday.  A faster east-\nnortheastward to northeastward motion is forecast thereafter when\nthe system becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\nmodels are in fair agreement, and only small changes were made to\nthe previous NHC track forecast.  This forecast takes the center of\nthe disturbance near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight\nand Monday and along the North Carolina coastline Monday night and\nTuesday.\n\nThe elongated center of the disturbance is located to the west of\nthe main area of deep convection due to strong westerly vertical\nwind shear.  The shear is only expected to lessen a little during\nthe next 12 to 24 hours, but it will likely weaken enough to allow\nthe system to become a tropical cyclone.  After that time,\nincreasing shear and interaction with the aforementioned trough\nshould cause the disturbance to lose its tropical characteristics in\nabout 48 hours.  Strengthening is likely for a couple of days while\nthe system is post-tropical due to baroclinic effects.\n\nAlthough the potential for tropical storm winds are within the\nwarning time period (36 hours), given the uncertainty in whether\nthese winds will occur on land in northeastern South Carolina and\nsoutheastern North Carolina, a tropical storm watch remains in\neffect for those areas.  Note that north of Duck, North Carolina,\nhazards from this system will be handled with non-tropical products\nissued by local National Weather Service offices.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 30.5N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  28/1200Z 30.9N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  29/0000Z 32.3N  79.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 34.4N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 48H  30/0000Z 36.5N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  31/0000Z 39.9N  64.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  01/0000Z 43.2N  53.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/0000Z 47.2N  41.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nHarvey is producing intense convection in bands over the eastern\nsemicircle of the circulation.  This is resulting in the\ncontinuation of very heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding\nover southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  There have\nbeen reports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the\nGreater Houston area.  With the additional rains that are expected\nover the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in\nsome locations, which would be historic for the area.\n\nThe initial intensity estimate remains 35 kt, based on the\nassumption that winds of this strength are occuring in some of the\nstronger bands.  Since Harvey is forecast to be back over water just\noffshore of the coast during the next couple of days, there is some\npotential for restrengthening.  Significant strengthening is not\nanticipated, however, due to the system's lack of an inner core and\nstrong southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough\nover Texas.\n\nRadar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving\nslowly southeastward, or 130/3 kt.  A mid-level trough dropping\ninto the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east\nand northeast and move back over land in a couple of days.  The\nofficial track forecast remains close to the dynamical model\nconsensus.\n\nAlthough the tropical storm warning may need to be extended eastward\nalong the upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts later this\nmorning, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flooding continue to be\nthe primary threats.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15\nto 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with\nisolated storm totals as high as 50 inches.  Please heed the advice\nof local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe\nplace, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A\nsummary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center\ncan be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana.\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches\nexpected in south-central Louisiana.  Please heed the advice of\nlocal officials and refer to products from your local National\nWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for\nmore information on the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 28.6N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 28.4N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  29/0600Z 28.1N  95.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  29/1800Z 28.3N  95.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  30/0600Z 29.0N  94.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  31/0600Z 31.0N  93.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  01/0600Z 33.4N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  02/0600Z 35.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n500 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten continues to lack a well-defined\ncenter, as shown in the coastal stations, buoys, and ASCAT\nscatterometer passes.  Moreover, the convection - while deep - is\nnow strung out linearly from northeast to southwest, more\nreminiscent of a front or trough.  Thus it does not appear that\ngenesis into a tropical cyclone is imminent.  Observations from\nbuoys and the ASCAT passes indicate that the peak winds remain\nabout 30 kt.\n\nWhile the disturbance has plenty of warm water and moist air\navailable, it's being sheared by strong upper-level westerlies.\nThe shear may lessen slightly over the next day or so, allowing\na short window of opportunity for the system to undergo genesis and\nsome intensification.  But in about 36-48 hr, the shear should go\nback up as the system reaches cooler SSTs, likely limiting the\nintensification as a tropical cyclone.  At about the same time, the\nsystem should transform into an extratropical cyclone and further\ndevelop via baroclinic forcing.  The intensity forecast shows a\nslightly delayed genesis and more gradual intensification through\n24 hr compared to the previous advisory and about the same\nthereafter.  This forecast is based upon a blend of the\nstatistical, hurricane-mesoscale, and global models.\n\nThe disturbance is officially shown as stationary, but this is an\neducated guess without a well-defined center being present.  After\nmeandering for another 12 hr or so, the system should consolidate\nand begin accelerating off toward the northeast.  The mesoscale and\nglobal guidance shows higher uncertainty than usual in the 12-36 hr\ntime frame and lower uncertainty for the 72 hr and beyond\nforecasts, likely because of the variability in the models of where\nand when a well-defined center forms.  The official track forecast\nis very similar to the previous one.\n\nThe track, intensity, and size forecasts for 48 hr and beyond are\nbased upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.  Note\nthat even though potential impacts from this system's winds could\noccur within the 36 hr time frame for a Tropical Storm Warning,\nbecause the intensity forecast is for a low-end tropical storm and\nthe winds are all over the eastern semicircle, the threat of\ncoastal tropical storm winds remains possible but low.  Thus the\nTropical Storm Watch for portions of South Carolina and North\nCarolina are retained at this time.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 30.3N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  28/1800Z 31.1N  80.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 32.9N  79.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 36H  29/1800Z 35.0N  76.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  30/0600Z 37.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  31/0600Z 41.0N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  01/0600Z 44.0N  51.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/0600Z 48.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nRadar and surface data indicate that the center of Harvey is near\nor just off the Texas coast south of Matagorda.  The system\ncurrently has only disorganized convection near the center, with the\nprimary deep convection in a band well to the east of the center.\nThe initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a minimum central\npressure around 997 mb and the assumption that stronger winds aloft\nseen on the Houston WSR-88D are mixing down to the surface in the\nstronger bands.\n\nWhile the convection is currently poorly organized, very heavy rains\nand life-threatening flash flooding continue over southeastern Texas\nand southwestern Louisiana.  There have been reports of 2-day\nrainfall totals of close to 30 inches in the Greater Houston area.\nWith the additional rains that are expected over the next several\ndays, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in some locations, which\nwould be historic for the area.\n\nDue to the current structure, a dry slot seen in water vapor\nimagery over the southern part of the circulation, and the lack of\nintensification shown by the intensity guidance, only slight\nstrengthening is anticipated while Harvey remains over the Gulf of\nMexico.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous\none.\n\nRadar and surface observations indicate that the center is moving\nslowly southeastward, or 125/4 kt.  A mid-level trough dropping\ninto the Ohio Valley should cause Harvey to turn toward the east\nand northeast and move back over land in a couple of days.  There\nis little change to the forecast track from the previous advisory,\nand the new track remains close to the dynamical model consensus.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15\nto 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with\nisolated storm totals as high as 50 inches.  Please heed the advice\nof local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe\nplace, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A\nsummary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center\ncan be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana.\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches\nexpected in south-central Louisiana and 5 to 10 inches in\nsoutheastern Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials\nand refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\n3. While Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings have been extended\neastward to the coast of Louisiana, the impacts of winds and storm\nsurge are expected to be secondary compared to that of the rains.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 28.5N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 28.1N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 28.1N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 28.5N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 29.4N  94.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  31/1200Z 31.5N  93.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  01/1200Z 33.5N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  02/1200Z 35.5N  90.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nThe disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet, and it\nstill consists of a sharp trough extending from northern Florida\nnortheastward across the adjacent Atlantic.  The area of minimum\npressure appears to be located just east of the Georgia coast.\nNearby observations suggest that the winds remain about 30 kt.\n\nThe disturbance is moving over warm waters but the shear is quite\nstrong for the system to develop significantly.  On this basis, the\nNHC forecasts the disturbance to become a tropical depression and a\ntropical storm during the next 12 hour to 24 hours. Thereafter, the\nshear will increase considerably, and most likely the system will\nintensify as an extratropical cyclone. However, the exact timing of\nthe transition is uncertain since the cyclone will be moving over\nwarm waters.\n\nIt appears that the area of minimum pressure is moving toward the\nnorth-northeast at 8 kt, but this is highly uncertain since we do\nnot have a center. This system is already embedded within the\nmid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead a trough, and this pattern\nwill steer the disturbance toward the northeast with a gradual\nincrease in forward speed. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is\nschedule to be in the disturbance later today.\n\nThe track and intensity forecast, primarily during the extratropical\nstage, is a blend of NHC forecast with the OPC guidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 31.4N  80.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  29/0000Z 32.4N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\n 24H  29/1200Z 34.5N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 36H  30/0000Z 36.5N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 48H  30/1200Z 38.5N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  31/1200Z 42.5N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  01/1200Z 46.0N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/1200Z 50.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  34...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nCorrected initial intensity in first paragraph\n\nRadar and surface data show that the center of Harvey remains near\nor just off the Texas coast south of Matagorda.  The associated\nconvection has increased in intensity and coverage in a cluster\nextending from just north of the center northeastward into the\nHouston metropolitan area.  Surface observations indicate that the\ncentral pressure is around 997 mb, and there are recent reports of\nsustained tropical-storm-force winds about 50-60 n mi southwest of\nthe center.  Based on these, the initial intensity is increased to\n40 kt.\n\nVery heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding continue over\nsoutheastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  There have been\nreports of 2-day rainfall totals of close to 35 inches in the\nGreater Houston area.  With the additional rains that are expected\nover the next several days, rainfall totals could reach 50 inches in\nsome locations, which would be historic for the area.\n\nWhile Harvey continues to produce widespread heavy rain, the\nconvective structure is not well organized in terms of being a\ntropical cyclone.  In addition, a dry slot is seen in water vapor\nimagery over the southern and southeastern parts of the circulation,\nand the intensity guidance is not showing much additional\ndevelopment as Harvey crosses the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  The\nintensity forecast reflects these issues by showing little change\nin strength before landfall.  Weakening and eventual decay into a\nremnant low are expected after landfall.\n\nThe center has drifted erratically eastward since the last\nadvisory, although a longer-term motion is 110/3.  Harvey is\ncurrently between the subtropical ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and\na large deep-layer ridge over the western United States, with a\nlarge trough in the westerlies weakening the Gulf ridge just enough\nto allow an east-southeastward motion.  The large-scale models\nsuggest that the westerlies should erode the western ridge to some\nextent during the forecast period, which should allow Harvey to\nturn north-northeastward under the greater influence of the Gulf\nridge.  The track guidance has changed little since the previous\nadvisory except to show a faster motion from 96-120 h.  The new\nforecast track remains close to that of the previous track, except\nfor an increased forward speed by 120 h.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 15\nto 25 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with\nisolated storm totals as high as 50 inches.  Please heed the advice\nof local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe\nplace, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A\nsummary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center\ncan be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana.\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches\nexpected in south-central Louisiana and 5 to 10 inches in\nsoutheastern Louisiana. Please heed the advice of local officials\nand refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\n3. While Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended eastward along\nthe coast of Louisiana and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued, the\nimpacts of winds and storm surge are expected to be secondary\ncompared to that of the rains.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 28.5N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 28.4N  95.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 28.6N  95.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 29.2N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 30.3N  94.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  31/1800Z 32.5N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  01/1800Z 34.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  02/1800Z 37.0N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n500 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has been flying through the\ndisturbance and so far the aircraft data depicts a sharp\ntrough with a few spots of tropical-storm-force winds east of the\ntrough axis. The overall cloud pattern has not become any better\norganized, and most of the weather is located in bands well to the\nnortheast and southeast of the trough. With the shear increasing,\nthe chances for the system to become a tropical storm are\ndiminishing, but if it does occur it should happen within the next\n24 hours or so while the system moves near the Outer Banks of\nNorth Carolina. Regardless of whether tropical cyclone formation\noccurs, tropical storm conditions are still expected in the warning\narea in North Carolina. Beyond 24 hours, the system should acquire\nextratropical characteristics. However, the exact timing of the\ntransition is uncertain since the cyclone will still be moving over\nwarm waters.\n\nIn reality, we can not track a center of circulation that does not\nexist and NHC is following an area of minimum pressure. This makes\nthe initial motion highly uncertain and the best estimate is toward\nthe northeast or 040 degrees at 10 kt. The system is already\nembedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of a\ntrough, and this pattern will steer the disturbance toward the\nnortheast with a gradual increase in forward speed.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 32.2N  79.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  29/0600Z 33.4N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 24H  29/1800Z 35.6N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\n 36H  30/0600Z 38.0N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  30/1800Z 40.0N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  31/1800Z 43.0N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  01/1800Z 47.0N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/1800Z 51.6N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nThe center of Harvey has been moving east-southeastward over the\nextreme western Gulf of Mexico this evening.  Although there is no\ndeep convection near the center of Harvey, thunderstorm activity has\ncontinued to increase well north of the center, along the immediate\nnorthwest Gulf Coast and has spread inland over the Greater Houston\narea, worsening the catastrophic flooding situation.  Another band\nof heavy rainfall is moving inland over portions of southern and\nsouthwestern Louisiana.  Widespread rainfall totals of 30 to 36\ninches have been observed in southeastern Texas and the Houston\nMetropolitan Area.  Storm totals could reach 50 inches in some\nlocations, which would be historic for the area.\n\nA NOAA National Ocean Service observing site near Matagorda Bay has\ncontinued to report sustained tropical-storm-force winds this\nevening, and data from this and other nearby stations still support\nan initial intensity of 40 kt.  Given the current structure of the\ncyclone and the lack of convection near the center, little change\nin strength is expected while Harvey moves over the northwestern\nGulf of Mexico.  After landfall in about 36 hours, gradual weakening\nshould occur as the circulation moves farther inland.\n\nHarvey has been moving east-southeastward or 120/3 kt.  The storm\nis forecast to turn northeastward, then north-northeastward over\nthe next couple of days as a ridge to the northwest of the system\nweakens and Harvey is steered around the western side of a ridge\nover the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance has shifted\nslightly eastward and the new NHC track has been adjusted in that\ndirection.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 10\nto 20 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast, with\nisolated storm totals as high as 50 inches.  Please heed the advice\nof local officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe\nplace, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A\nsummary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center\ncan be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spreading farther east into Louisiana.\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches are expected in\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches\nexpected in south-central Louisiana. Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10\ninches are expected in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi\nand Alabama.  Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to\nproducts from your local National Weather Service office and the\nNOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding\nhazard in these areas.\n\n3. While Tropical Storm Warnings have been extended eastward along\nthe coast of Louisiana and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued, the\nimpacts of winds and storm surge are expected to be secondary\ncompared to that of the rains.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 28.2N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 28.1N  95.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 28.5N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 29.5N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  31/0000Z 30.7N  93.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  01/0000Z 33.4N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  02/0000Z 35.5N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  03/0000Z 38.0N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n1100 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017\n\nAlthough the disturbance continues to produce a fairly large area\nof deep convection, this activity is far from the estimated center\nand the circulation remains poorly defined. Surface observations and\nradar data suggest that the circulation of the system is stretched\nfrom north-northeast to south-southwest, and the position used in\nthis advisory is near the estimated minimum pressure location.  The\ninitial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier aircraft data\nand a Dvorak classification from TAFB.\n\nSince the system does not have a clear center, the initial motion\nis an uncertain 020/6 kt.  A faster northeastward motion is\nexpected to begin overnight or early Tuesday as a mid- to\nupper-level trough over the Great Lakes moves closer to the\nsystem.  The NHC forecast track takes the disturbance across the\nSouth Carolina and North Carolina coastline overnight and on\nTuesday.  By late Tuesday, the cyclone is forecast to move offshore\nand accelerate over the Atlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies.\nThe NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\nGiven the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind\nshear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this\ndisturbance becoming a tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing.\nNonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-force winds\nand heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas are likely\ntonight and on Tuesday even if the system does not become a tropical\ncyclone.  The system is expected to become post-tropical in about 24\nhours when it interacts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level\ntrough.  Significant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is\nforecast for a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing.\n\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 to 120 h are\nbased on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 32.5N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  29/1200Z 34.5N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  30/0000Z 36.9N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  30/1200Z 39.0N  69.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  31/0000Z 40.5N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  01/0000Z 43.8N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/0000Z 48.5N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/0000Z 53.0N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nHeavy rains continue to spread over the Houston area and other\nlocations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana,\nexacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event.  Rainfall\ntotals exceeding 40 inches have been observed at several locations\nin the Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas.  Storm totals\ncould reach 50 inches in some locations, which would be historic for\nthe area.\n\nThe center of Harvey is moving slowly over the waters of the\nextreme northwestern Gulf of Mexico, and there continues to be\nessentially no deep convection near that center.  The current\nintensity is estimated to still be 40 kt based on surface\nobservations from buoys and land stations.  Given the lack of\ncentral convection and strong south-southwesterly shear over the\nsystem, significant restrengthening is not anticipated before the\ncenter crosses the coast again within 36 hours or so.  Gradual\nweakening will occur after landfall.\n\nHarvey has turned from an east-southeastward to an eastward\nheading and the initial motion is now about 100/3 kt.  The storm\nshould turn northeastward to north-northeastward over the next\ncouple of days as a ridge to the northwest of the system\nweakens and Harvey is steered around the western side of a ridge\nto the east.  Some further eastward adjustments to the official\ntrack forecast were made, following the latest model consensus\nforecasts.  However, it is important not to focus on the exact\nforecast track since the main threat from Harvey, heavy rain and\nflooding, can and will occur well removed from the track of the\ncenter.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 7\nto 13 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50\ninches.  Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt\nto travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded\nroadways.  Refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals\ncompiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:\nwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther east into Louisiana.\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches are expected in\nsouth-central Louisiana.  Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are\nexpected in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi and\nAlabama.  Please heed the advice of local officials and refer to\nproducts from your local National Weather Service office and the\nNOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding\nhazard in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 28.1N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 28.3N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 28.8N  93.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 29.9N  93.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  31/0600Z 31.1N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  01/0600Z 33.7N  90.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  02/0600Z 36.0N  87.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  03/0600Z 37.5N  83.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nThe disturbance has developed a center that has been trackable\nthis evening though it is still not well-defined, since it\nappears to be considerably elongated northeast-southwest.  The\ndisturbance continues to display very cold, but extremely asymmetric\ndeep convection with all of the thunderstorm activity east of the\ncenter due to strong vertical shear.  Moreover, the convection is\nshowing no identifiable banding features.  So the system is not yet\na tropical cyclone.  Regardless of the label we use to describe this\nhybrid system, maximum winds are around 35 kt based upon a Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB and observed winds just below that from\nthe NDBC Buoy 41013.\n\nThe initial motion of the disturbance is northeast at a faster rate\nof about 10 kt.  Continued acceleration is expected during the next\ncouple of days as a mid- to upper-level trough over the Great Lakes\nmoves closer to the system.  The NHC forecast track takes the\ndisturbance across the North Carolina coastline today.  By tonight,\nthe cyclone is forecast to move offshore and accelerate over the\nAtlantic in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast lies\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope and is not substantially\nchanged from the previous advisory.\n\nGiven the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind\nshear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this\ndisturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a\ncoin flip.  Nonetheless, the potential impacts of tropical-storm-\nforce winds across portions of North Carolina are likely today even\nif the system does not become a tropical cyclone.  The system is\nexpected to become extratropical in 24 hours or less when it\ninteracts with the aforementioned mid- to upper-level trough.\nSignificant strengthening as an extratropical cyclone is forecast\nfor a couple of days due to baroclinic forcing.  No significant\nchange has been made to the NHC intensity forecast.\n\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 24 to 120 h are\nbased on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 33.5N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  29/1800Z 35.4N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 38.0N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  30/1800Z 39.5N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  31/0600Z 41.0N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  01/0600Z 44.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/0600Z 50.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/0600Z 55.0N  19.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nHeavy rains continue to spread over the Houston area and other\nlocations in southeastern Texas and southern Louisiana, exacerbating\nwhat is already a catastrophic flood event.  Rainfall totals of\nnearly 50 inches have been observed at several locations in the\nGreater Houston area and southeastern Texas.  Storm totals\ncould reach higher amounts in some locations, which would be\nhistoric for the area.\n\nHarvey consists of a vigorous circulation of low clouds with some\npatches of deep convection well to the north of the center and a\ncyclonically curved convective band in the eastern semicircle. The\ninitial intensity is kept at 40 kt until we have a more recent\nestimate when the reconnaissance plane checks the area this\nafternoon.  Strong shear prevails over the cyclone, so no\nsignificant change in intensity is anticipated before landfall. A\ngradual weakening is forecast once the circulation moves inland.\n\nThe circulation is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees\nat 4 kt. Harvey is expected to be steered to the northeast with an\nincrease in forward speed by the mid-latitude southwesterly\nflow ahead of a trough. Most of the guidance is consistent with this\nsolution, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance\nenvelope. Given that the guidance is tightly clustered the\nconfidence in the track forecast is high.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 6\nto 12 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50\ninches.  Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt\nto travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded\nroadways.  Refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals\ncompiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:\nwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther east into Louisiana.\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in\nsouthern Louisiana into coastal Mississippi and Alabama.  Please\nheed the advice of local officials and refer to products from your\nlocal National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in\nthese areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 28.4N  94.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 28.8N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 29.8N  93.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  31/0000Z 30.8N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  31/1200Z 32.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  01/1200Z 34.5N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  02/1200Z 36.5N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  03/1200Z 38.5N  81.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nSurface observations near and offshore the southern coast of North\nCarolina indicate that an elongated circulation and pressure minimum\nare located over Onslow Bay, but satellite imagery still shows no\nsigns of a well-defined center.  In addition, a sharp wind shift,\nassociated with a front, extends northeastward across Pamlico and\nAlbemarle Sounds and the Outer Banks.  Maximum winds remain 35 kt\nfor continuity's sake since there have been no recent observations\nof sustained tropical-storm-force winds.\n\nThe disturbance has so far failed to become a tropical cyclone, and\nsince vertical shear is 30-40 kt and increasing, it appears that it\nnow has a low chance of doing so before it becomes extratropical\nlater today.  Baroclinic energy from the approaching shortwave\ntrough should cause the extratropical cyclone to strengthen\nsignificantly during the next day or two, and it is forecast to be\nproducing hurricane-force winds over the northwestern Atlantic by\n36 hours.  Gradual weakening is expected after that time until the\ncyclone is absorbed on day 5.  The track, intensity, and wind radii\nforecasts continue to incorporate guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean\nPrediction Center.\n\nThe disturbance is accelerating toward the northeast with an\ninitial motion of 045/15 kt, and it is likely to clear the Outer\nBanks into the western Atlantic by late this afternoon.  The system\nis embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and it will be\ninteracting with a shortwave trough moving east of the Great Lakes\nduring the next couple of days.  This will cause the disturbance to\ncontinue accelerating toward the northeast or east-northeast over\nthe north Atlantic for the next 4 days.  The cyclone is expected to\nbe absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 34.4N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  30/0000Z 36.6N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  30/1200Z 38.8N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  31/0000Z 40.4N  63.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  31/1200Z 41.8N  58.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  01/1200Z 45.8N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/1200Z 51.0N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/1200Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":38,"Date":"2017-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nHeavy rains continue to spread over southeastern Texas and southern\nLouisiana, exacerbating what is already a catastrophic flood event.\nRainfall totals are around 50 inches at some isolated locations in\nthe Greater Houston area and southeastern Texas.\n\nConvection blossomed a couple of hours ago, and the center jumped a\nlittle northward into the thunderstorm activity. Since that time,\nthe center is back on track and is moving slower again toward the\nnorth-northeast at about 5 kt. Recent data from an Air Force\nHurricane Hunter plane indicate that winds are about 45 kt, with a\nminimum pressure of around 994 mb. The SFMR on the plane reported\nsome higher wind values but the plane was flying in shallow waters\nand these numbers appear inflated. Flight-level winds in the same\narea were much lower.\n\nStrong shear prevails over the cyclone, so no significant change in\nintensity is anticipated before the broad center of circulation\nmakes landfall. A gradual weakening is forecast once the system\nmoves inland.\n\nHarvey has been steered north-northeastward by a light southwesterly\nflow between a high in the Gulf of Mexico and a trough over the\ncentral United States. This flow pattern should keep Harvey on the\nsame general track and speed with a gradual turn to the northeast in\nabout 3 days. By then the cyclone is forecast to degenerate\ninto a remnant low and then become absorbed by an extratropical low.\nMost of the guidance is consistent with this solution, and the NHC\nforecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and very close to\nthe multi-model consensus.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 6\nto 12 inches are expected across the upper Texas coast into\nsouthwestern Louisiana, with isolated storm totals as high as 50\ninches.  Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt\nto travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded\nroadways.  Refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals\ncompiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:\nwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther east, and additional rainfall\namounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southern Louisiana into\ncoastal Mississippi and Alabama.  Please heed the advice of local\nofficials and refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 29.2N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 30.1N  93.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  30/1800Z 31.5N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  31/0600Z 32.5N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  31/1800Z 34.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  01/1800Z 36.5N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  02/1800Z 37.5N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ten","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL102017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017\n500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nVisible satellite images indicate that a more well-defined\ncirculation has begun to form east of the Outer Banks, and surface\nobservations indicate that pressures are falling.  The low is\nbecoming extratropical, and there is no longer a possibility of it\nbecoming a tropical cyclone.  In addition, the associated\ntropical-storm-force winds that have been occurring to the southeast\nof the center are limited to marine areas, so this will be the last\nNHC advisory on this system.  Maximum winds are estimated to be 40\nkt to the southeast of the center.\n\nBaroclinic influences are expected to cause the low to deepen as an\nextratropical cyclone during the next day or two, and it is forecast\nto produce sustained hurricane-force winds over the northwestern\nAtlantic by late Wednesday.  Gradual weakening is forecast after 36\nhours, and the cyclone is likely to be absorbed by another\nextratropical system over the north Atlantic by day 5.\n\nThe low continues to accelerate toward the northeast with an initial\nmotion of 050/21 kt, and it should move even faster toward the\nnortheast or east-northeast across the north Atlantic through day 4,\nembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track, intensity, and\nwind radii forecasts incorporate guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean\nPrediction Center.\n\nStrong winds on the northern and western side of a frontal boundary\nassociated with the low are expected to affect portions of the\nmid-Atlantic coast.  As a result, high wind warnings are in effect\nfor coastal sections of northeastern North Carolina, southeastern\nVirginia, and the eastern shore of Virginia and Maryland through\nthis evening.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by NHC, and additional information\non this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the\nNational Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header\nFZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 36.0N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 37.6N  70.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  30/1800Z 39.3N  65.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  31/0600Z 40.9N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  31/1800Z 42.8N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  01/1800Z 47.4N  41.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/1800Z 52.0N  25.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the large disturbance southwest of\nMexico is gradually becoming better organized.  While the system\nstill lacks a well-defined center, all indications are that it will\nbecome a tropical storm tomorrow.  Since the system is forecast to\nbring tropical-storm-force winds to Baja California Sur within 36\nhours, advisories are being initiated on a potential tropical\ncyclone.  The system has 2-3 days over very warm water with\ndecreasing shear.  Although the system is quite broad for the\nmoment, the favorable environmental conditions noted above should\nallow for at least steady strengthening.  Thus, the official\nforecast is higher than the model consensus, but lower than the\nbullish SHIPS model.\n\nThe initial motion is a highly uncertain 315/8.  A weak ridge over\ncentral Mexico should steer the cyclone to the northwest or north-\nnorthwest for the next few days.  Thereafter, the system should turn\ntoward the west-northwest as it moves around a stronger ridge over\nthe southwestern United States.  While there is some spread in the\nguidance, the models are in reasonable agreement for a first\nforecast, taking the system near or just west of Baja California\nSur.  The official NHC track prediction is between the model\nconsensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA.\n\nIt is important to note that outside the watch/warning area, very\nheavy rain is possible, which could cause life-threatening\nflooding and mudslides over southwestern Mexico.  In addition,\nwind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible along the coast of\nMichoacan, Colima and Jalisco states tonight into early Wednesday\ndue to the large circulation.\n\nThe National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue\nadvisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet\na tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical\nstorm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under\nprevious policy this was not possible.  These systems are known as\nPotential Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered\nfrom the same list as depressions.\n\nBecause of the threat to Baja California Sur, advisories have been\ninitiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E and the\nappropriate watches and warnings have been issued by the government\nof Mexico.  Advisory packages will continue until the threat of\ntropical-storm-force winds for land areas sufficiently diminishes,\nalthough if the system becomes a tropical cyclone, the normal rules\nfor discontinuing advisories would apply.  Users should be aware\nthat forecast uncertainty for disturbances is generally larger than\nfor tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 17.2N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  30/0600Z 18.1N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 19.3N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 36H  31/0600Z 20.4N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  31/1800Z 21.4N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  01/1800Z 23.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  02/1800Z 25.0N 114.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  03/1800Z 26.5N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":39,"Date":"2017-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nLatest radar imagery shows that heavy rainfall continues over\nfar eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana.  Outer bands are also\nproducing heavy rain farther east along portions of the northern\nGulf coast. However, rains have begun to diminish over the Greater\nHouston area, where some locations have received more than 50 inches\nduring this historic event.\n\nHarvey took an eastward jog this evening, but recent satellite\nimages suggest that a northeastward motion has resumed.  The storm\nis expected to move north-northeastward to northeastward between a\nridge over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a trough over the\neast-central United States.  This motion should bring the center\nonshore over southwestern Louisiana early Wednesday, and into the\nTennessee Valley region later this week.  The global models\nshow the system becoming an open trough near the Ohio Valley or\nAppalachians in 4 to 5 days.  The latest NHC track forecast has\nbeen shifted eastward partially due to the more eastward initial\nposition.\n\nThere has been little overall change to Harvey's convective\nstructure since the previous advisory, and the initial intensity\nremains 45 kt, which was supported by the earlier aircraft data.\nLittle change in strength is anticipate before Harvey reaches the\nLouisiana coast.  After that time, gradual weakening should occur\nwhile Harvey moves farther inland.\n\nThe latest forecast required an extension of the tropical storm\nwarning eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 6\nto 12 inches are expected to the north and east of Houston from far\neast Texas into southwestern Louisiana.  Isolated storm totals have\nreached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including the\nHouston/Galveston metropolitan area.  Please heed the advice of\nlocal officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe\nplace, and do not drive into flooded roadways.  Refer to products\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A\nsummary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center\ncan be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther east, and additional rainfall\namounts of 5 to 10 inches are expected in southern Louisiana into\ncoastal Mississippi and Alabama. These rains will spread north by\nmid to late week, with rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches in portions\nof Arkansas and the Tennessee Valley.  Please heed the advice of\nlocal officials and refer to products from your local National\nWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for\nmore information on the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 29.0N  93.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 29.8N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  31/0000Z 31.1N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  31/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  01/0000Z 34.3N  89.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  02/0000Z 36.8N  85.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  03/0000Z 39.0N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 PM MDT Tue Aug 29 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the disturbance just off the\nsouthwest coast of Mexico is gradually becoming better organized.\nThe system is developing some banding features, especially over the\nwestern semicircle.  However, the circulation remains broad and\nthere is no indication of a well-defined center at this time.  The\ninitial wind speed is held at 25 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak\nclassification from TAFB.  The environmental conditions are\nconducive for the disturbance to strengthen, and it will likely\nbecome a tropical storm on Wednesday.  Additional strengthening\nseems likely through about 72 hours, and it is possible that the\ndisturbance could reach hurricane strength.  After that time,\nhowever, decreasing SSTs and drier air should end the strengthening\ntrend and cause weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the\nhigh end of the guidance, and it is very similar to the previous\nforecast.\n\nThe initial motion of the system is difficult to determine since\nthere is no clear center, but satellite fixes suggest that the\ndisturbance is moving northwestward at 9 kt.  A slower northwestward\nto north-northwestward motion is expected during the next 2 to 3\ndays, followed by a turn to the left beyond that time when the\nsystem moves on the south side of a mid-level ridge over the\nwestern United States.  The models have shifted to the east this\ncycle, and the new NHC track forecast has been adjusted in that\ndirection.  This forecast takes the center of the system close to\nBaja California Sur in the 48- to 72-h time frame.  Based on the new\nforecast, the government of Mexico has expanded the Hurricane Watch\nnorthward on the west coast of Baja California Sur.\n\nIt is important to note that very heavy rain is possible outside of\nthe watch/warning area in southwestern Mexico.  These rains could\ncause life-threatening flooding and mudslides.  In addition,\nwind gusts to tropical-storm-force are possible along the coast of\nMichoacan, Colima and Jalisco states through early Wednesday due to\nthe system's large circulation.\n\nThe National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue\nadvisories, watches, and warnings for disturbances that are not yet\na tropical cyclone, but which pose the threat of bringing tropical\nstorm or hurricane conditions to land areas within 48 hours.  Under\nprevious policy this was not possible.  These systems are known as\nPotential Tropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered\nfrom the same list as depressions.\n\nBecause of the threat to Baja California Sur, advisories are being\nissued on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E.  Advisory packages\nwill continue until the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for\nland areas sufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a\ntropical cyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories\nwould apply.  Users should be aware that forecast uncertainty for\ndisturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,\nespecially beyond 48-72 hours.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 17.7N 107.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  30/1200Z 18.8N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 24H  31/0000Z 19.7N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 36H  31/1200Z 21.0N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 22.1N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  02/0000Z 24.1N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  03/0000Z 25.7N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  04/0000Z 27.3N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":40,"Date":"2017-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nRadar, satellite, and surface observations indicate that Harvey's\ncenter has crossed the coast just west of Cameron, Louisiana, with\nmost of the associated deep convection located over extreme\nsoutheastern Texas and western Louisiana.  Although the rain has\nended in the Houston/Galveston area, the Beaumont/Port Arthur area\nwas particularly hard hit overnight, with about 12.5 inches reported\nat the Jack Brooks Regional Airport since 7 pm CDT.  ASCAT data from\nlate last night indicated that Harvey's maximum winds were near 40\nkt, and the tropical-storm-force wind radii on the eastern side were\na little smaller than previously estimated.\n\nHarvey has turned north-northeastward and is moving a little faster\nwith an initial motion of 030/6 kt.  The cyclone is located on the\nnorthwestern side of a mid-tropospheric high, which should steer it\nnorth-northeastward and the northeastward across the Lower\nMississippi and Tennessee Valleys during the next few days.  The\nglobal models indicate that the surface low should dissipate over\nthe Ohio Valley by day 4, which is now indicated in the NHC\nforecast.\n\nNow that Harvey's center is moving inland, the maximum winds should\ngradually decrease during the next few days.  Harvey is likely to\nweaken to a tropical depression by tonight, and then it could\nbecome a remnant low by day 3.  This weakening will not eliminate\nthe risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along Harvey's\npath, although the system's faster motion will prevent rainfall\ntotals from being anywhere near what occurred over southeastern\nTexas.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  While the threat of heavy rains has\nended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-\nthreatening flooding will continue in and around Houston eastward\ninto southwest Louisiana for the rest of the week.  Isolated storm\ntotals have reached 50 inches over the upper Texas coast, including\nthe Houston/Galveston metropolitan area.  Please heed the advice of\nlocal officials.  Do not attempt to travel if you are in a safe\nplace, and do not drive into flooded roadways. Refer to products\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.  A\nsummary of rainfall totals compiled by the Weather Prediction Center\ncan be found at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther east, and additional rainfall\naccumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated amounts up to 10 inches\nare expected from southwestern Louisiana and the adjacent border of\neastern Texas northeastward into western Kentucky through Friday.\nPlease heed the advice of local officials and refer to products from\nyour local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\nPrediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard in\nthese areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 29.8N  93.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  30/1800Z 30.4N  92.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  31/0600Z 31.7N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  31/1800Z 33.3N  90.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  01/0600Z 35.0N  88.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  02/0600Z 37.5N  84.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nThe large disturbance off the coast of Mexico continues to\ngradually become better organized, with some banding features over\nthe southern portion of the broad circulation.  There is still no\nindication of a well-defined center, however.  The current intensity\nestimate remains 25 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from\nTAFB.  The system/tropical cyclone should be in an environment of\nweak to moderate easterly to southeasterly shear over the next few\ndays so once the circulation consolidates, strengthening is likely\nuntil the system interacts with the southern portion of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.  Given the seemingly favorable environment,\nthe official intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the model\nconsensus.  The cyclone could become a hurricane when it nears Baja\nCalifornia Sur, although this is not explicitly shown in the NHC\nforecast. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should weaken\nwhile it traverses the cooler water north of Cabo San Lazaro on the\nBaja peninsula.\n\nAs before, with the lack of a definite center the initial motion is\nquite uncertain, with the current estimate at 325/9 kt.  For the\nnext couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone is expected to move\nslowly north-northeastward on the eastern end of a broad mid-level\ncyclonic gyre.  In 3-5 days the motion should bend toward the\nnorthwest and west-northwest due to a mid-level ridge to the north.\nThe NHC track forecast lies in between the latest GFS and ECMWF\nsolutions, and is close to the latest simple and corrected dynamical\nmodel consensus predictions.  It should be noted that since there is\nconsiderable spread in the model guidance, this official track\nforecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty.\n\nIt is also important to note that very heavy rain is possible\noutside of the watch/warning area in southwestern Mexico.  These\nrains could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides.  In\naddition, wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along the\ncoast of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco states through early\nWednesday due to the system's large circulation.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 18.5N 108.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  30/1800Z 19.6N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 24H  31/0600Z 20.6N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 36H  31/1800Z 21.6N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 22.6N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  02/0600Z 24.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  03/0600Z 26.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  04/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":41,"Date":"2017-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nHarvey has changed little in organization since landfall, with\nsatellite and radar data showing continued convective banding, most\nnotably in the northwestern quadrant.  Winds gusts of 35-45 kt have\nbeen reported over the coastal regions south of the center, and the\ncentral pressure has risen only slightly to 993 mb.  Based on these\ndata, the initial intensity remains 40 kt.  It should be noted that\na large area of winds just below tropical-storm-force is occurring\nover the Gulf of Mexico south of the coasts of south-central and\nsoutheastern Louisiana.\n\nRadar and surface observations indicate that the center of Harvey\nmoved northward for a period of several hours near landfall, but now\nis resuming a north-northeastward motion of roughly 020/7.  The\ncyclone is located on the northwestern side of a mid-tropospheric\nhigh, which should steer it north-northeastward and then\nnortheastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys\nduring the next few days until the system dissipates.\n\nHarvey should gradually weaken as it moves farther inland, with the\nintensity expected to drop below tropical-storm strength shortly\nafter the 12 h point.  Subsequently, the system should decay to a\nremnant low by 72 h and dissipate completely by 96 h.  The forecast\nweakening will not eliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall\nand flooding along Harvey's path, although the system's faster\nmotion will prevent rainfall totals from being anywhere near what\noccurred over southeastern Texas.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  While the threat of heavy rains has\nended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-\nthreatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,\nBeaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest\nof the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the\nupper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan\narea. Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt to\ntravel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded\nroadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals compiled by\nthe Weather Prediction Center can be found at:\nwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and\nadditional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\namounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and\nthe adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western\nKentucky through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials\nand refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 30.5N  93.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  31/0000Z 31.4N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  31/1200Z 32.8N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  01/0000Z 34.4N  90.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  01/1200Z 35.8N  88.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  02/1200Z 38.5N  84.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irma","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irma Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far\neastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday,\nwith many curved bands around the center.  ASCAT data showed peak\nwinds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the\ncirculation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the\ninstrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt.  Global models\nindicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for\nstrengthening of Irma during the next several days.  However, Irma\nwill be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier\nmid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate.\nThe NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the\nstatistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM.  At the end\nof the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the\nvery conducive environment shown in most of the global models\nemerges.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/11.  A ridge over the eastern\nAtlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days.\nThereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause\nthe storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest.\nThe official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the\nregional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on\nthis cycle.  Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern\nside of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction\nas the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 16.4N  30.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  31/0000Z 16.7N  31.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  31/1200Z 17.3N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 17.9N  35.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 18.2N  37.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 18.7N  41.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 17.7N  46.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 17.0N  51.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 AM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nThe potential tropical cyclone has not become any better organized\novernight, though available data indicate that the pressures\ncontinue to fall and that the winds have increased to 30 kt.  It\nappears that there are two centers in the broad circulation, and the\nNHC position uses a mean center.  Only slow strengthening is\nforecast today due to the disorganized surface circulation, but a\nmore significant intensification could start tomorrow.  If the\ncirculation consolidates, the upper-level winds and water\ntemperatures are very conducive to strengthening.  The NHC forecast\nis similar to the previous one, just a bit above the model\nconsensus.  Because the system is forecast to be approaching\nhurricane strength as it nears Baja California Sur, the hurricane\nwatch is maintained.  Later in the forecast period, the cyclone\nshould weaken while it traverses either land or the cooler waters\nwest of the Baja peninsula.\n\nAs before, with the lack of a definite center the initial motion is\nquite uncertain, with the current estimate at 335/8 kt.  For the\nnext couple of days, the system/tropical cyclone is expected to move\nslowly north-northwestward on the eastern end of a broad mid-level\ncyclonic gyre.  In 3-5 days the motion should bend toward the\nnorthwest and west-northwest due to a mid-level ridge to the north.\nModel guidance has shifted a bit to the east today, and the official\nforecast is adjusted in that direction.  A tropical storm watch has\nbeen issued for the west coast of Mexico due to the changes in the\nforecast.  Since the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center\nand there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this\nofficial track forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty.\n\nIt is also important to note that very heavy rain causing\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides is possible over\nportions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur.  Regardless of\nexactly how strong the cyclone becomes, this is expected to be a\nsignificant hazard.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 19.3N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  31/0000Z 20.4N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  31/1200Z 21.4N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 22.3N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  01/1200Z 23.4N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  02/1200Z 25.4N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  03/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  04/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":42,"Date":"2017-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n400 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nHarvey is gradually weakening as the center moves farther inland,\nwith the winds near the center diminishing and the central pressure\nrising to near 998 mb.  However, scatterometer data and surface\nobservations indicate a band of 30-35 kt winds over the Gulf of\nMexico well to the southeast of the center, and this is the basis\nfor keeping Harvey a tropical storm.  The cyclone should weaken to\na depression in less than 12 hours, and continued slow weakening is\nanticipated until the cyclone dissipates completely between\n72-96 h.  It should be noted that the forecast weakening will not\neliminate the risk of continued heavy rainfall and flooding along\nHarvey's path, although the system's faster motion will keep\nsubsequent rainfall totals well below what occurred over\nsoutheastern Texas.\n\nHarvey is wobbling back and forth around an overall motion of\n020/7.  The cyclone is located on the northwestern side of a low- to\nmid-tropospheric level ridge over the western Atlantic and eastern\nGulf of Mexico, which should steer it north-northeastward and then\nnortheastward across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys\nduring the next 72-96 h until the system dissipates.\n\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  While the threat of heavy rains has\nended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-\nthreatening flooding will continue in and around Houston,\nBeaumont/Port Arthur, eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest\nof the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the\nupper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan\narea. Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt to\ntravel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded\nroadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals compiled by\nthe Weather Prediction Center can be found at:\nwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and\nadditional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\namounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and\nthe adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western\nKentucky through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials\nand refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 30.8N  93.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  31/0600Z 31.8N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  31/1800Z 33.5N  91.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  01/0600Z 35.1N  89.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  01/1800Z 36.4N  87.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  02/1800Z 38.6N  83.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irma","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irma Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nIrma is displaying increasingly organized symmetric and interlocking\nrainbands with a well-defined outflow as seen in the visible and\ninfrared satellite imagery this afternoon.  Dvorak classifications\nfrom both TAFB and SAB have gone up at 18Z, suggesting 45 and 35 kt,\nrespectively.  Given their low bias earlier compared with the ASCAT\nscatterometer passes, the initial intensity is bumped up to 50 kt at\nadvisory time.\n\nIrma is embedded within very low tropospheric vertical shear\ncurrently and for the foreseeable future, as the tropical storm lies\nunderneath the upper-level anticyclone.  However, in about three\ndays the SSTs and the mid-level humidities that Irma should start to\nencounter will become cooler and drier.  The intensity guidance\nshows steady intensification for the next two to three days, then\ndiverges in response to the low shear/not-as-favorable\nthermodynamical environment.  The official intensity forecast is\nclosest to the ICON consensus technique through three days, then\nshows no change to day five.  This new forecast is higher than the\nprevious advisory, but lower than ICON at day 4 and 5 (and thus may\nbe conservative).\n\nIrma is moving toward the west at about 13 kt along the south side\nof the deep-layer Azores high.  A slight turn toward the west-\nnorthwest at a slower rate of forward speed is expected during\nthe next three days.  As the high strengthens, Irma is expected to\nturn toward the west-southwest around day 4.  There is a moderate\namount of spread among the normally reliable global and mesoscale\nmodels in this scenario.  The official track forecast is based upon\nthe HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and is nearly the same as\nthat from the previous advisory.\n\nDespite the large overall envelope of the Irma's circulation, the\nearlier ASCAT passes showed a very small area of tropical-storm-\nforce winds - only 30 nm radius.  The official size forecast is\nbased upon the RVCN - variable consensus technique.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 16.4N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  31/0600Z 16.8N  32.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  31/1800Z 17.3N  34.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  02/1800Z 18.2N  43.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  03/1800Z 17.3N  47.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  04/1800Z 16.5N  52.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the convection pattern of the system\nis becoming better organized, with a large curved band in the\nsouthern semicircle. ASCAT data from earlier indicated peak winds of\n33 kt, and since the pass caught less than half of the circulation,\nit is assumed higher winds were not sampled.  Thus the initial wind\nspeed is set to 35 kt.  However, the low still does not have a\nwell-defined center, with the elongated circulation containing\nseveral low-level swirls, so it will stay a potential tropical\ncyclone.  Slow strengthening is considered most likely due to the\npoor initial organization.  If the circulation consolidates, the\nupper-level winds and water temperatures are still conducive to\nstrengthening. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, just\na bit above the model consensus.  In a couple of days, the cyclone\nshould weaken while it traverses either land or the cooler waters\nwest of the Baja peninsula.\n\nA long-term motion of the system is 345/6.  The disturbance should\nmove on this general course around a weak ridge over central\nMexico, before taking a more westward turn as it runs into a ridge\nover the southwestern United States.  Models are in fairly good\nagreement on the cyclone moving very close to Baja California Sur\nfrom 36 hours to 96 hours, although again there has been a small\neastward trend in the guidance.  Thus, the official forecast is\nshifted to the east as well.  A tropical storm warning has been\nissued for the west coast of Mexico due to the changes in the\nforecast.  Since the disturbance still lacks a well-defined center\nand there is considerable spread in the model guidance, this\nofficial track forecast has greater-than-usual uncertainty.\n\nIt is also important to note that very heavy rain is falling over\nportions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur, which is\nalready causing threatening flash floods and mudslides. Regardless\nof exactly how strong the cyclone becomes, this should be a\nsignificant hazard.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 20.1N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  31/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  31/1800Z 22.0N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 23.1N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/1800Z 24.3N 110.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  02/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  03/1800Z 28.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  04/1800Z 29.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":43,"Date":"2017-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL092017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017\n1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nHarvey has continued to weaken since this afternoon as the center\nhas moved farther inland over Louisiana.  Surface observations\nindicate that winds along the northern Gulf coast have decreased,\nand the system became a tropical depression in the 0000 UTC\nintermediate advisory.  Harvey should continue to gradually weaken\nas the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected\nto dissipate over the Ohio Valley within 72 hours.\n\nHarvey is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt.  The cyclone\nshould turn northeastward around the northwestern portion of a\nmid-level ridge that extends westward from the western Atlantic\nacross the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This steering pattern is\nforecast to take Harvey across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee\nValleys during the next couple of days.\n\nIt should be noted that despite Harvey's weakening, heavy rainfall\nand flooding are forecast to occur along the path of Harvey during\nthe next few days, but its faster forward speed should keep\nsubsequent rainfall amounts well below what occurred along the\nnorthwest Gulf coast.\n\nThis is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\nHarvey.  Future information on this system can be found in public\nadvisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM\nCDT under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the\nweb at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  Additional information can\nalso be found in products issued by your local National Weather\nService office.\n\nThe National Hurricane Center would like to thank all the men and\nwomen that have worked countless hours at local National Weather\nService Forecast offices along the Gulf coast providing life-saving\nwarnings and information during the past week, on top of preparing\ntheir family and homes for the storm.  The center would also like to\nacknowledge the dedication of the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane\nHunter aircraft crews that flew numerous missions into Harvey.  In\naddition, NHC thanks the staff at the Weather Prediction Center,\nwho led efforts to coordinate forecasts of the historic\nflooding event, NWS River Forecast Centers that provided flood\nguidance, and the Storm Prediction Center, that coordinated tornado\nforecasts.\n\nKey Messages:\n\n1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue\nacross southeastern Texas.  While the threat of heavy rains has\nended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-\nthreatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/\nPort Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest\nof the week.  Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the\nupper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan\narea.  Please heed the advice of local officials.  Do not attempt to\ntravel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded\nroadways.  Refer to products from your local National Weather\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more\ninformation on the flooding hazard.  A summary of rainfall totals\ncompiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:\nwww.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html\n\n2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and\nadditional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\namounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and\nthe adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western\nKentucky through Friday.  Please heed the advice of local officials,\nand refer to products from your local National Weather Service\noffice and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information\non the flooding hazard in these areas.\n\n3. The Weather Prediction Center will issue public advisories on\nHarvey as long as it remains a rainfall threat.  These advisories\ncan continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website\nand at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 31.7N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 32.8N  91.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  01/0000Z 34.5N  89.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  01/1200Z 35.9N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/0000Z 37.0N  85.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irma","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irma Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nIrma continues to become better organized, with the development of\na small CDO feature and increased banding near the center.  An\nearlier high-resolution Windsat microwave overpass showed that Irma\nhas a tight inner core and a low-level eye-like feature was\npresent.  A Dvorak classification of T3.5 from TAFB is the basis\nfor the initial intensity of 55 kt.  Irma is expected to steadily\nstrengthen during the next couple of days while it moves through a\nlow-shear and moist environment, and remains over warm sea\nsurface temperatures.  After that time, slightly cooler SSTs and\nlower mid-level moisture may temper the intensification process.\nHowever, the statistical aids, HWRF, and most of the consensus\nmodels make Irma a major hurricane by the end of the forecast\nperiod.  The NHC forecast is fairly similar to the previous advisory\nthrough 48 hours, but is above the earlier forecast thereafter.  The\nnew official intensity forecast could still be a little conservative\nas it remains a little below the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the ICON\nconsensus at days 4 and 5.\n\nIrma is moving westward at about 10 kt to the south of deep-layer\nridge over the eastern Atlantic.  The track forecast reasoning is\nabout the same as the previous advisory, with Irma expected to turn\nwest-northwestward on Thursday, then continue on that heading\nfor a couple of days.  The high pressure ridge over the central\nAtlantic is forecast to strengthen later this week, which is\nexpected to result in Irma turning west-southwestward by the\nweekend.  There is still some spread among the track models, so the\nNHC forecast lies near a blend of the typically reliable GFS and\nECMWF, and the HFIP corrected consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 16.4N  32.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 16.8N  33.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 17.3N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 17.7N  37.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  02/0000Z 18.0N  39.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  03/0000Z 17.6N  44.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  04/0000Z 16.8N  49.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  05/0000Z 16.2N  53.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 PM MDT Wed Aug 30 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the circulation, although broad, is\nmore consolidated, and convection has become more concentrated near\nthe center. However, there is no evidence of an inner core at this\ntime. Data from a unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft currently in\nthe area of Lidia, and observations from the Mexican Navy automatic\nweather stations, were very helpful in determining the structure of\nthe cyclone. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 35 kt.\n\nLidia is within a very favorable environment of low shear, and the\nocean is warm.  The only factor against a higher intensification\nrate appears to be the large size of the cyclone. The NHC forecast\ncalls for gradual strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours, and\nLidia has a chance to be near hurricane strength before the cyclone\nbegins to interact with the high terrain of the Baja California\npeninsula. After that time, gradual weakening should then begin.\n\nThe overall circulation is still moving toward the north-northwest\nor 345 degrees at 6 kt. Lidia is being steered by the flow between\na weak ridge over Mexico and a weak cyclonic gyre to the west. This\npattern will persist, and the cyclone should continue on the same\ngeneral track for the next 2 days. Once the cyclone reaches the\ncentral portion of Baja California peninsula, a ridge to the north\nis forecast to amplify, and this flow pattern will force a weaker\nLidia on a more west-northwest track toward cold waters.\n\nIt is important to emphasize that Lidia is a large system\naccompanied by very heavy rains which are already occuring over\nportions of western Mexico and Baja California Sur. These rains are\nalready causing threatening flash floods and mudslides and\nregardless of exactly how strong Lidia becomes, this should be a\nsignificant hazard.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0300Z 20.7N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  31/1200Z 21.6N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 22.8N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  01/1200Z 23.8N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/0000Z 25.5N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  03/0000Z 28.0N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  04/0000Z 29.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  05/0000Z 29.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irma","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irma Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nIrma continues to become better organized with a developing CDO and\na few banding features.  The overall cloud pattern is fairly\nsymmetric, with fair upper-level outflow over all but the\nsoutheastern portion of the circulation.  The current intensity\nis set at 60 kt, which is the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB\nand SAB.  The environment ahead of Irma appears to be mostly\nconducive for intensification, with increasingly warm SSTs.\nVertical shear is expected to remain low as an upper-level trough\nto the west-northwest of the tropical cyclone lifts out to the\nnorth and west.  The only noticeable inhibiting factor is slightly\ndrier mid-level air in 2-5 days, but this will probably not be much\nof a deterrent for strengthening.  The official intensity forecast\nfollows the latest consensus of the models, and is similar to the\nprevious NHC prediction.\n\nBased on geostationary satellite fixes, the initial motion is just\nslightly north of west or 280/10 kt.  Most of the track guidance\nshows a west-northwestward motion for the next day or so.  Irma\nwill remain situated to the south of a well-defined\nmid-tropospheric ridge through the forecast period.  Much of the\nguidance indicates that Irma will turn toward a slightly south of\nwestward heading in a couple of days, presumably in response to some\nbuilding of high pressure to the north and northwest.  The official\ntrack forecast also shows this, and remains on the southern side of\nthe guidance suite.  This is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\nsolutions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0900Z 16.5N  32.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 17.0N  34.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 17.6N  36.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 18.0N  37.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  02/0600Z 18.2N  40.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  03/0600Z 17.5N  45.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  04/0600Z 16.7N  49.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  05/0600Z 16.0N  53.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nScatterometer data and microwave images indicate that Lidia has a\ndeformed circulation, with what appears to be two lobes of\nvorticity rotating around a common center.  The unmanned NASA Global\nHawk flew very near the centroid of the circulation last evening\nand provided a better estimate of Lidia's central pressure (about\n998 mb at the time).  In addition, a dropsonde released to the east\nof the center measured a mean boundary layer wind of 45 kt, which\nequates to a surface wind a little over 35 kt.  Assuming the\ndropsonde did not sample the highest winds, and given that deep\nconvection has become more organized into two distinct clusters\nsince that time, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt.\n\nLidia is moving north-northwestward, or 335/7 kt, between a\nmid-level high centered over central Mexico and a cyclonic gyre\nlocated to the west over the Pacific.  This motion should continue\nfor the next 36 hours, but then after that time, high pressure over\nthe southwestern United States should force Lidia to turn\nnorthwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 through 5.  Most of\nthe spread in the track models is related to Lidia's forward speed,\nand there is a notable disparity between the faster GFS and slower\nECMWF models.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than\nthe previous one to better match the speeds of the TVCN multi-model\nconsensus and the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).\n\nEven though Lidia is in an environment of low shear and over very\nwarm waters, the storm's large size and lack of an inner core are\nlikely to prevent fast strengthening before the center reaches the\nBaja California peninsula.  Since the ambient environment is\nfavorable, the NHC forecast continues to call for modest\nstrengthening and still shows a peak intensity of 55 kt in about 24\nhours, which is in line with HCCA.  Weakening is expected after 24\nhours due to the center moving up the spine of the Baja California\npeninsula, but tropical-storm-force winds are likely to spread up\nthe Gulf of California well east of the center.  Lidia is forecast\nto become a remnant low by day 3 due to its interaction with land,\nand further weakening is anticipated over the cold waters of the\nCalifornia Current on days 4 and 5.\n\nLidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are\nalready occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja\nCalifornia Sur.  Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes,\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant\nhazard over these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  31/1800Z 22.3N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 23.6N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  01/1800Z 25.1N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/0600Z 26.7N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  03/0600Z 29.2N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  04/0600Z 30.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  05/0600Z 30.5N 121.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number   5...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Irma is rapidly intensifying.\nVery deep convection has formed in the central dense overcast,\nwhich is now displaying a small and clearing eye.  Dvorak estimates\nwere up to 77 kt at 1200 UTC, and since the cloud pattern continues\nto quickly become more organized, the initial wind speed is set to\n85 kt.\n\nIrma has moved somewhat south of and slower than all of the model\nguidance since yesterday.  Consequently, it stayed longer over the\nwarmer ocean temperatures away from the drier air to the north,\npossibly allowing the rapid strengthening.  Irma should move over\ncooler waters tomorrow with some increase in mid-level dry air, so\nhopefully the hurricane's intensity will level off by then.  In a\nfew days, the hurricane will be moving over warmer waters with light\nshear shown by all of the model guidance.  This should promote\nfurther strengthening of Irma, and the NHC forecast shows an\nextremely dangerous category 4 hurricane next week, similar to the\nsolutions provided by the HWRF and the ECMWF models. The intensity\nforecast is raised considerably from the previous one due to initial\ntrends, and is on the high end of the guidance at long range.\n\nThe hurricane has turned west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  This\nmotion should continue for the next day or so before a ridge builds\nover the central Atlantic Ocean.  This ridge should force Irma to\nturn westward by the weekend, and west-southwestward early next\nweek. Guidance continues to trend southward, following the trend of\nthe ECMWF model starting yesterday.  Given the strength of the ridge\nand depth of the tropical cyclone, there are no obvious reasons to\ndiscount the anomalous west-southwestward motion seen in most of the\nguidance. Little change is made to the track forecast in short\nrange, but the track is shifted southward and westward at long\nrange, though not as far southwest as the overnight ECMWF and ECMWF\nensemble models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1500Z 16.9N  33.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 17.5N  35.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 18.0N  37.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  02/0000Z 18.2N  39.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  02/1200Z 18.1N  41.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/1200Z 17.0N  46.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  04/1200Z 16.0N  51.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  05/1200Z 16.0N  55.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 AM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nConventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Lidia has\nbecome better organized this morning, with interlocking convective\nbands forming around a much better defined center.  Satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and\nthe latest CIMSS ADT estimate is close to 55 kt.  The initial\nintensity is increased to 45 kt, and this could be conservative.\n\nThe initial motion is north-northwestward or 340/8 kt between a\nmid-level anticyclone centered over central Mexico and a mid- to\nupper-level low located to the west over the Pacific.  This motion\nshould continue for the next 24-36 hours.  After that time, a\nmid-level anticyclone over the southwestern United States should\nbecome the main steering influence and force Lidia to turn\nnorthwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 through 5.  While\nthere remains some spread in the speed, the guidance is tightly\nclustered on the track, and the new forecast is similar to both the\nprevious forecast and the various consensus models.\n\nAdditional strengthening is likely today before the center moves\nclose to the Baja California peninusla, and while the chance of\nLidia becoming a hurricane is low it is non-zero.  Weakening is\nexpected after 12 hours due to the center moving up the spine of the\nBaja California peninsula, but tropical-storm-force winds are likely\nto spread up the Gulf of California well east of the center.  Lidia\nis forecast to become a remnant low by day 3 due to its interaction\nwith land, and further weakening is anticipated over the cold waters\nof the California Current on days 4 and 5.\n\nLidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are\nalready occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja\nCalifornia Sur.  Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes,\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant\nhazard over these areas.  In addition, the mountainous terrain of\nthe Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher\nelevations.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/1500Z 22.3N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 23.3N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  01/1200Z 24.6N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  02/0000Z 26.1N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/1200Z 27.6N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  03/1200Z 30.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  04/1200Z 30.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  05/1200Z 30.5N 122.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nIrma has become an impressive hurricane with intense eyewall\nconvection surrounding a small eye.  Satellite estimates continue to\nrapidly rise, and the Dvorak classifications from both TAFB & SAB\nsupport an initial wind speed of 100 kt.  This is a remarkable 50-kt\nincrease from yesterday at this time.\n\nMicrowave and satellite data suggest that an eyewall replacement\ncycle could be starting.  This isn't surprising given how small the\neye is, and will probably be the first of many eyewall cycles for\nthis hurricane.  Overall, Irma should be in a low-shear environment\nfor several days, with the intensity controlled by eyewall cycles\nand the moderately warm SSTs along the path.  Thus the forecast\nintensity is leveled off for the next 2 days.  After the weekend,\nIrma should be moving over much warmer water, with SSTs forecast to\nbe 29C at the end of the period.  All indications are for Irma to be\nstrengthening by the end of the forecast period, with the NHC\nprediction adjusted slightly upward from the previous one, in line\nwith the extremely low pressures forecast by the global and regional\nhurricane models at that time.\n\nIrma continues moving west-northwestward, now at about 10 kt.\nThere has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with the\nhurricane likely to turn westward and west-southwestward over the\nnext few days due to a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  At\nlong range, however, model guidance is not in good agreement on the\nstrength of the ridge, resulting in some significant north-south\ndifferences in the global models.  I am inclined to stay on the\nsouthwestern side of the model guidance, given the rather consistent\nforecasts of the ECMWF and its ensemble.  In addition, the strongest\nmembers of the recent ensembles are on the southern side on the\nconsensus, giving some confidence in that approach.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 17.3N  34.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 17.8N  36.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 18.2N  38.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  02/0600Z 18.3N  40.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  02/1800Z 17.9N  42.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  03/1800Z 16.8N  47.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  05/1800Z 16.5N  56.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that Lidia continues to become better\norganized, with convective bands now wrapping most of the way\naround a ragged clear-air center.  Recent surface observations from\nthe Cabo San Lucas area support increasing the initial intensity to\n55 kt, although it is unclear how much terrain enhancement of these\nwinds is occurring.\n\nThe initial motion is north-northwestward or 335/7 kt between a\nmid-level anticyclone centered over central Mexico and a mid- to\nupper-level low located to the west over the Pacific.  This motion\nshould continue for the next 24 h or so.  After that time, a\nmid-level anticyclone over the southwestern United States should\nbecome the main steering influence from 48-120 h, forcing Lidia to\nturn northwestward and eventually westward.  The guidance has become\nsomewhat less tightly spread, as the GFS is currently a right\noutlier showing a motion into the northern Gulf of California.\nGiven the lack of support for this scenario from the other models,\nthe new forecast track is similar to the previous track and a little\nsouth of the consensus models\n\nAdditional strengthening is possible this evening before the center\nmoves over the Baja California peninsula, and while the chance\nof Lidia becoming a hurricane is low it is still non-zero.\nWeakening is expected after 12 h due to the center moving up the\nspine of the Baja California peninsula, but tropical-storm-force\nwinds are likely to spread up the Gulf of California well east of\nthe center.  Lidia is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 h\ndue to interaction with land and cold water, and further weakening\nis anticipated over the cold waters west of the northern Baja\nCalifornia peninsula at 96 and 102 h.\n\nLidia is a large system accompanied by very heavy rains which are\nalready occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja\nCalifornia Sur.  Regardless of how strong Lidia becomes,\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides will be a significant\nhazard over these areas.  In addition, the mountainous terrain of\nthe Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher\nelevations.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  31/2100Z 22.7N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  01/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  01/1800Z 25.2N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  02/0600Z 26.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  02/1800Z 28.2N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  03/1800Z 30.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  04/1800Z 30.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  05/1800Z 30.5N 123.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nThe period of rapid intensification that began in earnest about 24\nhours ago appears to have ended, at least for now.  Although a ring\nof very cold cloud tops continues to surround a small eye, the eye\nappears to have filled somewhat during the evening hours. This may\nbe due to an eyewall replacement cycle that was noted to have begun\nearlier today.  A lack of recent microwave imagery makes it\ndifficult to confirm that, however.  The initial intensity remains\n100 kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak current\nintensity estimates.\n\nEven though the intensification of Irma seems to have stopped for\nnow, the hurricane is still embedded within a favorable environment.\nFor the next couple days, internal convective variability,\nespecially eyewall replacement cycles, may cause the intensity to\nfluctuate up or down.  Most of the guidance through this period\nshows very little change in strength.  Beyond 48 hours, Irma will\nmove over much warmer SSTs, and all of the hurricane models forecast\nsome strengthening.  The NHC forecast remains a little above the\nintensity consensus, and is close to the HWRF and HMON models.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt.  No significant changes\nhave been made to the track forecast.  While there remains good\nagreement among the dynamical models that a ridge building over the\ncentral Atlantic will steer Irma toward the west on Friday, and the\nwest-southwest through the weekend, there is large spread beyond\n72 h.  For example, the GFS shows a somewhat weaker Irma and a\nweaker ridge, forcing the hurricane to move slower and make a\nsharper turn back toward the west-northwest.  On the other hand, the\nECMWF and HWRF depict a stronger ridge and a stronger hurricane on a\nmore southern track. Since my forecast calls for strengthening, the\nNHC forecast remains south of the multi-model consensus, but is a\nlittle north of the corrected consensus, HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 17.8N  35.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 18.1N  37.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  02/0000Z 18.3N  39.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  02/1200Z 18.2N  41.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  03/0000Z 17.7N  43.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  04/0000Z 16.7N  48.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  05/0000Z 16.3N  52.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  06/0000Z 17.0N  57.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 PM MDT Thu Aug 31 2017\n\nDuring the past couple of hours while the center of Lidia was\nmeandering very near the southern tip of the Baja California\npeninsula, the deep convection near the center blossomed, and the\ncloud pattern increased in organization. In fact, there was a hint\nof an eye feature in between two hooking bands. Part of the increase\nin convection could be related to the moist flow against the\nmountains. Based on recent satellite intensity estimates, the winds\nremain at 55 kt, and now that a large portion of the circulation\nis interacting with the peninsula, gradual weakening is anticipated.\nIf the core of Lidia moves closer or over land as indicated in the\nNHC forecast, the weakening process could occur faster. Beyond 48\nhours, the cold waters west of Baja California will finish the job.\n\nLidia hesitated earlier this afternoon, but it has now resumed a\nmotion toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at about 9 kt. The\nsteering pattern has not changed, and Lidia is still sandwiched\nbetween a high over Mexico and a cyclonic gyre to the west over the\nocean. This flow will keep Lidia advancing over or very near the\nspine of the Baja California peninsula for the next day or two.\nThereafter, the ridge will build to the north forcing the cyclone\nto move on a west-northwest to west track. By then, Lidia should\nbe over cold waters as a shallow remnant low.\n\nLidia continues to be a large system accompanied by very heavy\nrains which are occurring over portions of western Mexico and Baja\nCalifornia Sur.  These rains are likely to produce life-threatening\nflash floods and mudslides.  In addition, the mountainous terrain of\nthe Baja California peninsula could enhance the winds at higher\nelevations.\n\nSome of the tropical moisture from Lidia may reach parts of the\ndesert Southwest this holiday weekend, including southern\nCalifornia, southern Nevada and southwestern Arizona.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0300Z 23.3N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  01/1200Z 24.4N 111.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  02/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 36H  02/1200Z 27.3N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  03/0000Z 28.7N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n 72H  04/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  05/0000Z 31.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  06/0000Z 31.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nAfter rapidly strengthening on Thursday, Irma appears to have\nleveled off in intensity.  The eye of the hurricane remains\nevident in satellite images, but it has occasionally been cloud\nfilled.  The deep convection in the eyewall has been fairly\nsymmetric, and the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB have held\nsteady at 5.5/102 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind\nspeed remains 100 kt for this advisory.\n\nAlthough Irma is in a very low wind shear environment, the hurricane\nis moving over only marginally warm SSTs and is in close proximity\nto dry air.  The models respond to these conditions by showing\nlittle change in strength or some weakening during the next couple\nof days.  Thereafter, Irma is expected to move into a more favorable\nthermodynamic environment while remaining in low wind shear\nconditions, which should allow the hurricane to intensify.  It\nshould be noted that major hurricanes like Irma often undergo\neyewall replacements that can cause fluctuations in strength, but\nunfortunately these internal dynamics can not be forecast with any\naccuracy.  The NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous\none and lies near the high end of the model guidance.\n\nIrma is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt to the south of a\nsubtropical high pressure system.  This high is forecast to\nstrengthen and build westward during the next few days, which\nshould cause the hurricane to turn to the west in about 24 hours and\nthen move to the west-southwest over the weekend.  By the end of the\nforecast period, Irma is expected to move on the south side of the\nhigh, which should cause the storm to turn back to the west or\nwest-northwest.  Although the models agree on this overall scenario,\nthey differ slightly on the strength and orientation of the high and\nthe intensity of Irma.  These differences have caused a fair amount\nof north-south spread.  The NHC intensity forecast lies near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope through day 4, but leans toward the\nsouthern end at day 5, in favor of the ECMWF and HCCA models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 18.2N  36.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 18.5N  38.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  02/0600Z 18.4N  40.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  02/1800Z 18.2N  42.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  03/0600Z 17.6N  45.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  04/0600Z 16.5N  49.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  05/0600Z 16.5N  53.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  06/0600Z 17.5N  58.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nCloud top temperatures have been warming during the past few hours,\nand the convective pattern appears to be losing some organization\nas Lidia interacts with the high terrain of Baja California Sur.\nStill, Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remained T3.5,\nand the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.  Recent ASCAT passes\nmissed Lidia's core, but they did indicate a large swath of\ntropical-storm-force winds extending over the southern Gulf of\nCalifornia.\n\nFixes suggest that Lidia has been moving more slowly during the\npast 6-12 hours, and the motion estimate is now toward the northwest\n(325 deg) at 7 kt.  The storm is embedded between a mid-level high\ncentered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough\nsouthwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on\na northwestward course for the next three days.  Lidia's center is\nlikely to move onshore south of Cabo San Lazaro later this morning\nand then cross on/off the western coast of the Baja California\npeninsula through 36 hours.  While most of the track models are\nfairly well clustered, the GFS remains the fastest model, and the\nECMWF is still one of the slowest.  The new NHC forecast is a\nlittle faster than the previous one and lies between the GFS and\nECMWF solutions, closest to TVCN and HCCA.\n\nLidia is expected to weaken over the next couple of days,\nespecially as the circulation continues to move over the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.  However, tropical-storm-force winds will\ncontinue to extend well east of the center, riding up the peninsula\nand adjacent Gulf of California for the next 36 hours.  Once Lidia\npermanently moves off the west coast of the Baja California\npeninsula, it will be located over the cold waters of the California\nCurrent and will likely be unable to generate deep convection.  For\nthat reason, it should be a remnant low by 48 hours.  After that\ntime, Lidia will begin to interact with a deep-layer low located off\nthe coast of California, and it is now expected to dissipate or be\nabsorbed by that low by day 4.\n\nSince Lidia's center is expected to move onshore soon, and the\nstorm is not likely to strengthen in the short time beforehand, the\ngovernment of Mexico has discontinued the hurricane watch for\nsouthern Baja California Sur.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/0900Z 23.8N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  01/1800Z 25.1N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  02/0600Z 26.8N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST\n 36H  02/1800Z 28.1N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  03/0600Z 29.3N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/0600Z 31.8N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nIrma is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle.  The small eye is\nbecoming less distinct, with both microwave and visible imagery\nindicating the presence of a forming outer eyewall. Satellite\nintensity estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced\nto 95 kt.  Some further weakening is possible over the next day or\nso while Irma moves over marginally warm SSTs and continues the\neyewall replacement.  After that time, the environment should be\ngenerally conducive for some restrengthening, although forecasting\nthe timing of eyewall replacement cycles is next to impossible.  The\nbiggest change from yesterday are the long-term wind shear\npredictions from the global models, which shows a little more shear.\nStill, the shear is not that strong, and the hurricane will be\nmoving over 29C SSTs.  Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is reduced\nsomewhat from the previous one, but remains near or slightly above\nthe model consensus.\n\nIrma has turned a little bit to the left, now estimated to be\nmoving 285/11.  The general synoptic situation remains well\nestablished due to a building mid-level high, which should cause\nthe hurricane to turn westward later today and then move\nwest-southwestward through the weekend.  An upper-level low will be\ndropping southward on the east side of that high, and should be a\nkey feature to how far south Irma goes before eventually turning\nwestward and west-northwestward early next week.  There is a\nnoticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and\ncorrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and\nHMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep\ncyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from\nthe upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on\nthe southern side of the guidance.  Thus, the forecast will stay\nsimilar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster\nmentioned above.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 18.5N  37.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  02/0000Z 18.7N  39.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  02/1200Z 18.5N  41.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  03/0000Z 18.0N  44.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  03/1200Z 17.3N  46.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  04/1200Z 16.2N  51.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  05/1200Z 16.7N  55.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  06/1200Z 18.0N  59.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 AM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nSatellite imagery indicates that the center of Lidia has made\nlandfall on the Baja California peninsula west of La Paz.  The\nconvective organization of the cyclone has decreased over the past\nseveral hours and, based on this and continuity from the previous\nadvisory, the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt.  The storm\ncontinues to have a large wind field in the eastern semicircle as\nshown by a recent report of tropical-storm-force winds in Los\nMochis on the Mexican mainland.\n\nThe initial motion is 325/8.  Lidia remains between a mid-level high\ncentered over the southwestern United States and a mid-level trough\nsouthwest over the Pacific, and these features should keep Lidia on\na general northwestward course for the next three days.  The new\nforecast track has the center over or just off of the west coast of\nthe Baja California peninsula for the next 30-36 h before emerging\nover the Pacific Ocean.  Overall the new track is an update of the\nprevious track that lies close to the various consensus models.\n\nSteady weakening is expected while the circulation interacts with\nthe mountainous terrain of Baja California.  However, tropical-\nstorm-force winds will continue to extend well east of the center,\nriding up the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for at least\nthe next 24 hours.  When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is\nexpected to be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C,\nwhich should cause it to quickly decay to a remnant low. The new\nintensity forecast is also an update of the previous forecast and\nlies at the upper edge of the intensity guidance.\n\nWhile Lidia should steadily weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will\ncontinue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula\nduring the next few days.  Moisture from the cyclone could reach\nthe southwestern United States over the weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/1500Z 24.6N 111.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  02/0000Z 25.8N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  02/1200Z 27.4N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  03/0000Z 28.6N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  03/1200Z 29.9N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/1200Z 32.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nWell, that eyewall replacement cycle didn't last long.  Satellite\nimages indicate that the cycle is now complete, with Irma displaying\na larger warm eye.  The initial wind speed has been set to 105 kt,\nin agreement with the CIMSS ADT.  Since the eyewall cycle is\nfinished, some strengthening is possible, although SSTs are\ncurrently pretty marginal.  Although no increase in winds is shown\nin the short term, this could be conservative.  During the next few\ndays, water temperatures along the track will warm significantly,\nbut there could be some higher shear, and of course more eyewall\nreplacements.  The forecast is a compromise between the\nstatistical/dynamical models, which bring the intensity down then up\nagain, versus the global models and hurricane models, which show a\nrather strong cyclone.\n\nThe westward turn of Irma has begun, and the current motion is\n275/12.  A building mid-level high should cause the hurricane to\nturn west-southwestward tomorrow and continue through early next\nweek.  Later on, Irma should reach the southern periphery of the\nridge, and begin to move west-northwestward.  The biggest change\nsince the last forecast is that the GFS and its ensemble has\ntrended southwestward, toward the unwavering ECMWF model on the\ntrack forecast.  Given the trend in guidance, little change is made\nto the official track prediction, although the corrected consensus\nmodels and the HWRF are now southwest of the latest forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the\nLesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip\ncurrents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nrainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify\nwhere and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser\nAntilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and\nlisten to any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will\nhave on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in\nhurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane\nplan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 18.8N  39.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  02/0600Z 18.9N  40.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  02/1800Z 18.5N  43.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  03/0600Z 17.9N  45.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  03/1800Z 17.2N  47.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  04/1800Z 16.4N  52.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  05/1800Z 17.0N  56.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  06/1800Z 19.0N  61.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nThe center of Lidia has been moving over the southern portion of\nthe Baja California peninsula.  While the convective cloud pattern\nhas become somewhat ragged, a recent surface observation from\nLoreto, Mexico indicates that maximum sustained winds remain near\n50 kt.  The storm also continues to have a large wind field in the\neastern semicircle as shown by a prolonged period of tropical-\nstorm-force winds at Los Mochis on the Mexican mainland.\n\nWeakening is expected while the circulation interacts with the\nmountainous terrain of Baja California.  However, tropical-storm-\nforce winds will continue to extend well east of the center, riding\nup the peninsula and adjacent Gulf of California for about the\nnext 24 hours.  When Lidia emerges over the Pacific, it is expected\nto be over sea surface temperatures near or below 24C, which should\ncause it to quickly decay to a remnant low.  The latest large-scale\nmodel guidance suggests that a circulation should persist through\n96 h, possibly due to interaction with a nearby mid- to upper-level\nlow late in the forecast period.  Thus, a 96 h point has been\nincluded.\n\nThe initial motion is now 325/10.  Lidia remains between a mid-level\nhigh centered over the southwestern United States and the\naforementioned mid- to upper-level trough to the southwest and south\nover the Pacific, and these features should keep the cyclone on a\ngeneral northwestward course for the next 72 h or so, followed by a\nturn toward the west-northwest.  The new forecast track has the\ncenter over or just off of the west coast of the Baja California\npeninsula for the next 18-24 h before emerging over the Pacific\nOcean. Overall the new track is an update of the previous track that\nlies close to, but is slightly faster than, the various consensus\nmodels.\n\nWhile Lidia should weaken, the heavy rainfall threat will continue\nover northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during\nthe next few days.  Moisture from the cyclone could reach the\nsouthwestern United States over the weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  01/2100Z 25.5N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  02/0600Z 26.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  02/1800Z 28.2N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  03/0600Z 29.4N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  03/1800Z 30.7N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  04/1800Z 33.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  05/1800Z 34.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nAfter developing a nearly clear eye during the afternoon hours,\nIrma appears to have once again temporarily peaked.  A WindSat pass\naround 2100 UTC hinted at the beginning of another eyewall\nreplacement cycle, which would be consistent with the observed\ncooling of the eye.  However, the small size of the hurricane's\ninner core relative to the resolution of the microwave instrument\nmakes it impossible for me to say for sure.  The initial intensity\nhas been lowered slightly to 100 kt, but it should be stressed that\nthis is probably just another fluctuation, in what will likely\nbe a long string of small changes in intensity over the next\nseveral days.  Since we do not have the ability to predict\nsuch changes, the NHC forecast shows very gradual intensification\nthroughout the forecast period, given the warm SSTs and increasing\nmoisture content along the forecast track.  The NHC forecast is near\nthe intensity consensus, but slightly favors the higher dynamical\nmodels.\n\nThe initial motion remains 275/12 kt.  The hurricane has moved a\nlittle farther north than previously expected, and the track has\nbeen adjusted in that direction.  Overall, the reasoning behind the\ntrack forecast has not changed, and Irma is still expected to turn\nwest-southwestward on Saturday due to a building ridge over the\ncentral Atlantic.  After about 72 h, there remains a large\nnorth-south spread in the guidance, with the GFS continuing to show\na weaker ridge (and a northern track), while the ECMWF shows a\nstronger ridge/southern track.  The ECMWF has performed better for\nIrma thus far, so my forecast continues to favor that solution.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it approaches the\nLesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip\ncurrents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nrainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify\nwhere and when those hazards could occur. Residents in the Lesser\nAntilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and\nlisten to any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will\nhave on the continental United States. Regardless, everyone in\nhurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane\nplan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 19.1N  40.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 19.0N  42.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  03/0000Z 18.5N  44.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  03/1200Z 17.9N  46.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  04/0000Z 17.3N  49.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  05/0000Z 16.8N  53.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  06/0000Z 18.0N  57.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  07/0000Z 20.5N  62.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 PM MDT Fri Sep 01 2017\n\nThe terrain of the Baja California peninsula has taken a toll on\nLidia.  The cloud pattern has become disorganized, and deep\nconvection has decreased with only a few strong patches remaining\nnear the center. Based on tonight's satellite intensity estimates\nand continuity, the initial intensity is generously set at 45 kt.\nIt appears that the strongest winds are occurring in the eastern\nhalf of the circulation and mainly over the Sea of Cortes. The\ninteraction with land and cold waters will result in additional\nweakening, and Lidia is forecast to be a remnant low in about 24 to\n36 hours or even sooner.\n\nLidia has continued on a steady motion toward northwest or 320\ndegrees at 10 kt. The flow pattern resulting from a high over\nMexico and a large low to the west will continue to steer\nLidia northwestward for a day or two. Thereafter, Lidia is expected\nto be a shallow cyclone steered by the low-level easterly flow. The\nNHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and is close to the\nmulti-model consensus.\n\nDespite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over\nnorthwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during\nthe next couple of days. Moisture from the cyclone could\nreach the southwestern United States over the weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0300Z 26.4N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  02/1200Z 27.6N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  03/0000Z 29.0N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n 36H  03/1200Z 30.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/0000Z 31.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/0000Z 33.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  06/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nIrma appears to have weakened a little during the last several\nhours.  The eye has become cloud filled once again, and the\nconvective pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday.  A\nblend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and\nADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin support\nlowering the initial wind speed a little to 95 kt.  It is\ninteresting to note that a ship (BATFR17) passed within 50 n mi to\nthe west of the center of Irma and has only reported winds of\nabout 40 kt, indicating that the core of Irma is compact.\n\nThe observed fluctuations in strength during the past day or so are\nlikely to continue for about another day while Irma remains over\nmarginally warm waters and in fairly close proximity to dry air.\nEyewall replacement cycles, like the one observed yesterday,\ncould occur, but forecasting the timing and duration of these are\nnot possible.  After 24 hours, Irma is expected to move over\nprogressively warmer waters and into a more moist environment.\nThese more favorable conditions combined with low to moderate wind\nshear should allow the hurricane to strengthen.  The NHC intensity\nforecast follows the consensus aids HCCA and IVCN, and it is fairly\nsimilar to the previous advisory.\n\nIrma is now moving due west at 12 kt.  A subtropical high pressure\nsystem to the north of the hurricane is expected to strengthen and\nbuild westward during the next couple of days.  This pattern should\ncause Irma to move west-southwestward during that time.  Thereafter,\na turn back to the west and then west-northwest is predicted in the\n3-5 day time period when Irma moves on the south and southwest sides\nof the high.  Although the models agree on the overall scenario,\nthere remains about 200 n mi north-south spread among the\nbest-performing models on day 5.  The NHC track forecast has been\nadjusted to the south at the longer-range points, and it is about\nhalfway between the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to\nthe Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip\ncurrents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nrainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify\nwhere and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the Lesser\nAntilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and\nlisten to any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will\nhave on the continental United States.  Regardless, everyone in\nhurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane\nplan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 19.0N  41.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  02/1800Z 18.8N  43.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  03/0600Z 18.3N  46.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 17.7N  48.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/0600Z 17.1N  50.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  05/0600Z 17.0N  54.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  06/0600Z 18.4N  59.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  07/0600Z 21.0N  64.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n300 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nLidia's convection has a rather amorphous pattern in infrared\nsatellite imagery this morning, but earlier microwave images\nindicate that the storm still has some banding features.  The\ncenter has moved inland again and is now located over northern\nBaja California Sur.  Since the center is over land and cloud tops\nare gradually warming, the advisory intensity is set at 40 kt, which\nis slightly below the average of the latest Dvorak CI numbers.  The\nstrongest winds are likely occurring well to the north and east of\nthe center over the Gulf of California.  Continued weakening is\nexpected since Lidia will be moving over the rugged terrain of the\nBaja California peninsula and then over the cold waters off the\npeninsula's west coast.  Lidia should lose its deep convection over\nthe cold waters by 36 hours, at which point it would become a\nremnant low.  The global models generally keep Lidia as a separate\nand distinct vorticity maximum through at least 48 hours, but they\nthen show it merging or becoming absorbed by a larger area of\nvorticity by day 3.  The NHC forecast continues to show a day 3\npoint for continuity, but whatever surface low exists at that time\nis likely to be a new and separate feature.\n\nLidia continues to move northwestward (320/10 kt) along the southern\nedge of a mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern\nUnited States, and this motion should continue for the next 36\nhours.  A bend toward the west-northwest is expected after that time\ndue to Lidia's interaction with a mid-/upper-level low currently\nlocated well to the west of the Baja California peninsula.  Lidia\nshould re-emerge off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula\nlater today and then gradually move away from land over the next few\ndays.\n\nDespite weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will continue over\nnorthwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula through\nSunday.  Moisture from the cyclone could reach the southwestern\nUnited States over the weekend.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/0900Z 27.2N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  02/1800Z 28.3N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  03/0600Z 29.6N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  03/1800Z 30.8N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/0600Z 31.9N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/0600Z 33.1N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nHurricane Irma continues to display an eye within a small central\ndense overcast in the visible and infrared imagery from the GOES\nand METEOSAT satellites.  Dvorak current intensity numbers from\nTAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS ADT have not changed, so the intensity\nremains 95 kt.\n\nThe environment in which Irma is embedded shows mixed signals for\nthe next few days.  While the vertical shear remains low through\nMonday, the SSTs are lukewarm and mid-level humidities are dry.\n(Indeed an overnight SSMIS microwave pass showed a distinct finger\nof dry air wrapping around the south side of Irma not far from its\ninner core.)  However, after the waters warm and the atmosphere\nmoistens at days 3-5, the shear is forecast to go up.  The guidance\nhas substantial spread between Category 2 and 4 by the end of the\nforecast period.  The official intensity forecast is based upon a\nblend of the LGEM/DSHP statistical techniques and the HWRF dynamical\nmodel and is unchanged from the previous advisory.\n\nIrma is finally moving slightly south of due west at 13 kt.  A\nlarge, building Azores-Bermuda high should turn Irma toward the\nwest-southwest at a slower rate of speed during the next two days.\nBy days 3 to 5, Irma should be rounding the southwestern periphery\nof the high and start turning back toward the west-northwest. The\ntrack guidance is in tight agreement with this scenario and the\nofficial forecast is a simply an update from the previous advisory.\n\nIrma is a small hurricane, as observed by ship BATFR17 and the\novernight ASCAT scatterometer pass with tropical-storm-force winds\nextending out at most about 60 nm. The official size forecast is\nbased upon the RVCN multi-model consensus technique.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to\nthe Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip\ncurrents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nrainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify\nwhere and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the Lesser\nAntilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and\nlisten to any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will\nhave on the Bahamas and the continental United States.  Regardless,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 18.8N  43.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.5N  45.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  03/1200Z 18.0N  47.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/0000Z 17.4N  49.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/1200Z 17.1N  51.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  05/1200Z 17.4N  56.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  06/1200Z 19.2N  60.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  07/1200Z 22.0N  66.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n900 AM MDT Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nLidia has become less organized since the previous advisory, with\nsatellite imagery suggesting that the low-level and mid-level\ncenters have become decoupled.  In addition, the coverage of deep\nconvection has diminished significantly, and there are no recent\nobservations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds.  The initial\nintensity will be lowered to 35 kt based on the premise that these\nwinds are still occurring over the Gulf of California.  Lidia should\ncontinue to weaken as the center moves over the cold waters west of\nthe northern Baja California peninsula, and the system is expected\nto degenerate into a remnant low in 24 h or less. The NHC forecast\nwill continue to show a remnant low at 72 h, but as noted in the\nprevious advisory it is unclear whether this will be Lidia or\nanother low pressure area that absorbs the remnants of Lidia.\n\nThe initial motion is 315/10 along the south side a mid-tropospheric\nhigh centered over the southwestern United States, and this motion\nshould continue for the next 36 h or so.  After that, a turn toward\nthe west-northwest is expected due to interaction with a mid- to\nupper-level low currently seen in water vapor imagery well to the\nwest of the Baja California peninsula.  The new forecast track is\nan update of the previous track and lies in the center of the\ntightly-clustered track guidance.\n\nDespite the ongoing and forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall\nthreat will continue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula through Sunday.  Moisture from the cyclone\nshould spread over portions of the southwestern United States\nthrough the weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/1500Z 27.9N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON COAST\n 12H  03/0000Z 28.9N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n 24H  03/1200Z 30.2N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  04/0000Z 31.4N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/1200Z 32.1N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/1200Z 33.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nHurricane Irma continues to display an eye within a small central\ndense overcast, although the eye has been going through periods\nwhere it becomes less well defined.  The satellite intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB remain 90 kt, while the latest CIMMS\nADT and satellite consensus technique estimates ARE 95-105 KT.\nSince there has been little overall change in organization since\nthe last advisory, the initial intensity remains 95 kt.\n\nThe environment in which Irma is embedded continues to show mixed\nsignals during the forecast period, and the intensity guidance\nresponds to this by ranging between little and slow intensification.\nThe hurricane is currently suffering some impact of sea surface\ntemperatures of about 27C and mid-level dry air entrainment.  Later\nin the period, Irma should encounter warmer water and increasing\nmoisture at a time when the vertical wind shear may be increasing.\nGiven the uncertainty on when all of the ingredients may come\ntogether, the new intensity forecast is the same as the previous\nforecast and calls for gradual intensification through the next\n5 days.  An alternative forecast scenario is that Irma gets\nsignificantly stronger than forecast near the end of the forecast\nperiod if the shear is less than currently expected.\n\nThe initial motion remains 265/13.  A large and building subtropical\nridge should steer Irma generally west-southwestward during the next\ntwo days or so.  Between 72-120 h, Irma should be rounding the\nsouthwestern periphery of the ridge and start turning back toward\nthe west-northwest.  While the track guidance remains in good\nagreement with this scenario, from 72-120 h there has been a\nwestward shift of the guidance that results in the new forecast\ntrack coming 30-60 n mi closer to the Leeward and Virgin Islands\nthan in the previous advisory.  This latter portion of the track\nlies near the center of the guidance envelope,  but with the ECMWF\nand corrected consensus models to the south and the GFS to the\nnorth.\n\nWhile Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance\nsuggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will\naffect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward\nand Virgin Islands.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to\nthe Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip\ncurrents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nrainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify\nwhere and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the Lesser\nAntilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and\nlisten to any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will\nhave on the Bahamas and the continental United States.  Regardless,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.5N  44.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 18.0N  46.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 17.4N  48.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/0600Z 17.0N  50.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  04/1800Z 16.8N  53.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  05/1800Z 17.5N  57.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  06/1800Z 19.5N  62.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  07/1800Z 22.0N  68.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lidia Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nLidia's deep convection is becoming less organized and located\nincreasingly farther away from the center of the tropical storm.\nThis is likely due to the system being disrupted while traveling up\nthe spine of the mountainous Baja California peninsula as well as\nthe cold waters on the west side of the peninsula.  Despite this,\nthe system still has a robust surface circulation and the ASCAT\nscatterometer passes this afternoon showed 35 kt peak winds within\nthe Gulf of California, which is the value used for the initial\nintensity.\n\nThe tropical storm should continue weakening as it traverses cold\nSSTs and a less unstable, dry atmosphere.  It is likely that deep\nconvection associated with Lidia will cease in 12-24 hr marking the\nend of the system as a tropical cyclone.  The official intensity\nforecast is the based upon the tightly clustered statistical and\ndynamical model guidance and is the same as the previous advisory.\n\nLidia is moving toward the northwest at 10 kt while moving around\nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The\ntropical storm should turn toward the west-northwest at about the\nsame rate of speed as it weakens and moves along in the low-level\ntradewind flow.  The official track forecast is based upon the\nusually reliable global models and is slightly north of the previous\nadvisory.\n\nDespite the forecast weakening, the heavy rainfall threat will\ncontinue over northwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula\nthrough Sunday.  Moisture from the cyclone should spread over\nportions of the southwestern United States through the weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  02/2100Z 28.8N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  03/0600Z 29.6N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  03/1800Z 30.9N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  04/0600Z 31.8N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  04/1800Z 32.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of Irma has not changed significantly in structure\ntoday.  The eye continues to become apparent and then hide under\nthe convective canopy, and this has been the observed pattern for\nthe past 24 hours or so. Dvorak estimates go up and down with the\npresence of the eye, but an average of these numbers supports an\ninitial intensity of 95 kt.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane will help\nwith the intensity estimate on Sunday.\n\nI hesitate to speculate too much about the environment that Irma is\nembedded within.  All of the standard ingredients necessary for\nstrengthening are forecast to be at least marginally favorable, but\nnone are expected to be hostile for intensification.  The NHC\nforecast, which in fact is similar to the previous one, continues to\nbe a blend of the statistical models and the explosive strengthening\nshown by the regional hurricane and global models.\n\nThe subtropical ridge building to the north of Irma has been\nsteering the hurricane toward the west or 260 degrees at 12\nkt.  The ridge is forecast to amplify even more, and this flow\npattern will force the hurricane to dive west-southwestward for a\ncouple of days.  Irma should then begin to gain latitude once it\nreaches the southwestern edge of the ridge in about 3 days.  The\nconfidence in the track forecast is high for the next 72 hours since\nall of the reliable guidance is basically on top of each other.\nAfter 3 days, when the hurricane is forecast to be approaching the\nnorthern Leeward Islands, the guidance envelope spreads out and\nbecomes bounded by the southernmost tracks of the HWRF, HCCA and the\nECMWF models, and by the northernmost GFS and UK models.  The\nconfidence beyond 3 days is then much lower.  Tonight's NHC forecast\nwas adjusted a just little to the south of the previous one due to\nanother small shift of the guidance envelope.  The forecast is\nbasically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCX.\n\nWhile Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance\nsuggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will\naffect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward\nand Virgin Islands.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to\nthe Lesser Antilles early next week, producing rough surf and rip\ncurrents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nrainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to specify\nwhere and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the Lesser\nAntilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the weekend and\nlisten to any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will\nhave on the Bahamas and the continental United States.  Regardless,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 18.3N  46.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 17.8N  48.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  04/0000Z 17.2N  50.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  04/1200Z 16.7N  52.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  05/0000Z 16.5N  54.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  06/0000Z 17.7N  59.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  07/0000Z 19.9N  64.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  08/0000Z 22.5N  69.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lidia","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lidia Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n800 PM PDT Sat Sep 02 2017\n\nLidia continues to weaken over the very cold waters of the\nnortheastern Pacific.  There have been no recent reports of\nsustained winds above 30 kt, so Lidia is now classified as a 30-kt\ndepression, in agreement with the Dvorak current intensity estimate\nfrom TAFB.  Deep convection is limited to a broken band displaced\nabout 120 n mi to the northeast of the low-level center.  Assuming\nthis convective trend continues, Lidia will likely become a remnant\nlow overnight.  After becoming post-tropical, the global models are\nin good agreement that the circulation of Lidia should continue to\ngradually spin down over the course of a day or two, before\ndissipating in about 48 h.\n\nA recent SSMIS overpass indicates that the low-level circulation\nis somewhat ill defined and located nearly a degree to the west of\nour previous center estimate.  The initial position and subsequent\ntrack forecast has been shifted in that direction, but not quite as\nfar as the microwave data would suggest, given the uncertainty\nassociated with that fix.  Regardless of the exact center position,\nLidia is still expected to continue generally west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward for the next 24-36 h along the southwest periphery of\na mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0300Z 29.0N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  03/1200Z 29.9N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  04/0000Z 31.0N 119.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  04/1200Z 31.7N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017\n\nIrma's convective pattern has improved slightly overnight.  Very\ncold cloud tops completely encircle the eye, which has warmed and\nbecome a bit clearer in infrared satellite images.  The initial\nintensity is raised to 100 kt based on a blend of the latest\nsubjective and objective Dvorak estimates.\n\nIrma has been losing latitude since yesterday due to strong high\npressure to its north, and the initial motion is now west-\nsouthwestward, or 255/13 kt.  The hurricane is likely to continue\nmoving on this trajectory for the next 36 hours, after which time it\nshould gradually turn toward the west and then west-northwest on\ndays 3-5 when it reaches the western extent of the ridge.  The new\nNHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one during the\nfirst 48 hours, showing Irma bottoming out around 16.5N.  However,\nthe track guidance has shifted westward after 48 hours, delaying a\nturn toward the west-northwest, and this required a corresponding\nwestward shift in the official forecast toward the multi-model\nconsensus at the end of the forecast period.  It should be noted\nthat the official forecast still lies to the east of some of the\nbetter-performing models, such as the ECMWF, HWRF, and HCCA, so\nadditional adjustment are possible in subsequent advisories.\n\nThe environment ahead of Irma appears conducive for gradual\nstrengthening for at least the next 2 to 3 days, with increasing sea\nsurface temperatures and a moistening in the mid-levels of the\natmosphere.  We may still observe fluctuations in intensity, but\noverall, the model guidance seems to suggest a general upward\ntrend with a peak in intensity possibly occurring around day 3.\nThis type of intensification would coincide with the timing of\nIrma's west-southwest to westward motion, a pattern which we have\nobserved in other west-southwestward-moving hurricanes in the past\n(i.e., Katrina, Joaquin, Fernanda, etc.).  The NHC intensity\nforecast is bumped up slightly, showing a peak in intensity on day\n3, and is largely a blend of the ICON intensity consensus and HCCA.\n\nWhile Irma is currently a small hurricane, the size guidance\nsuggests it should grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will\naffect how soon watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward\nand Virgin Islands, and interests on those islands should continue\nto monitor Irma's progress.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves closer to\nthe Lesser Antilles over the next few days, producing rough surf and\nrip currents.  Irma could also cause dangerous wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall impacts on some islands, although it is too soon to\nspecify where and when those hazards could occur.  Residents in the\nLesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Irma through the\nweekend and listen to any advice given by local officials.\n\n2. It is much too early to determine what direct impacts Irma will\nhave on the Bahamas and the continental United States.  Regardless,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 18.0N  47.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  03/1800Z 17.5N  49.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  04/0600Z 16.8N  51.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  04/1800Z 16.5N  53.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  05/0600Z 16.5N  55.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  06/0600Z 17.8N  60.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  07/0600Z 20.0N  66.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  08/0600Z 22.5N  71.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Lidia","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Lidia Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP142017\n200 AM PDT Sun Sep 03 2017\n\nLidia has not produced any deep convection for the past 12-15\nhours, which means it is no longer a tropical cyclone and has\ndegenerated into a remnant low.  Its initial intensity is estimated\nto be 30 kt based on a Dvorak CI number of 2.0 from TAFB, but\nLidia's winds should gradually decrease as it moves over the cold\nwaters west of Baja California.  Model guidance indicates that\nLidia's vorticity will merge with or become absorbed by a\ndeep-layer low to its west in the coming days, and the surface low\nis expected to dissipate by 48 hours.\n\nLidia's initial motion is toward the northwest, or 315/7 kt.  High\npressure over the southwestern United States should steer the\nremnant low toward the west-northwest beginning later today, and\nthis motion should continue until the circulation dissipates off the\ncoast of southern California.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\non Lidia.  For additional information on the remnant low please see\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/0900Z 29.6N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  03/1800Z 30.3N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  04/0600Z 31.2N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  04/1800Z 32.2N 121.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 03 2017\n\nThe eye of Irma is a little less distinct in geostationary satellite\nimages this morning, which suggests that the intensity of the\nhurricane may be fluctuating yet again.  However, the initial\nwind speed is maintained at 100 kt for this advisory, which is close\nto a consensus of the various objective and subjective satellite\nintensity estimates.  The first reconnaissance mission, a NOAA P-3\nHurricane Hurricane aircraft, is scheduled to depart Barbados for\ntail Doppler radar mission into Irma late this afternoon and should\nprovide additional information on Irma's intensity by this evening.\n\nA strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is steering\nIrma west-southwestward or 255/12 kt.  This general motion with\nsome reduction in forward speed is expected during the next day or\nso.  After that time, Irma is forecast to turn westward, then\nwest-northwestward in about 72 hours as it approaches the western\nportion of the ridge.  The various consensus aids are generally a\nlittle slower than the previous advisory, but there cross-track\ndifferences are small.  As a result, the updated NHC track is very\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and is close to a consensus of the\nECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF, but is not as far south as the\nlatest runs of the UKMET or ECMWF.\n\nIrma is forecast to move over slightly warmer SSTs and into a\nmoistening mid-level environment.  These conditions, along with a\nfavorable upper-level wind pattern, should allow for gradual\nstrengthening during the next 2 to 3 days. However, eyewall\nreplacement cycles could result in fluctuations in intensity\nduring the next several days.\n\nWhile Irma is currently a small hurricane, the guidance suggests it\nshould grow in size during the next 72 h.  This will affect how soon\nwatches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin\nIslands, and interests on those islands should continue to monitor\nIrma's progress.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n1. Irma is expected to be a major hurricane when it moves near or\nover the northeastern Leeward Islands by the middle of this week,\nand could cause dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts,\nalong with rough surf and rip currents on some islands. Hurricane\nand tropical storm watches will likely be issued for some of these\nislands later today or tonight. Residents in these areas should\nmonitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by\nofficials.\n\n2. Direct impacts from Irma are also possible in the Virgin Islands\nand Puerto Rico later this week, and tropical storm or hurricane\nwatches could be issued for these islands by tomorrow.  Residents in\nthese areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice\ngiven by officials.\n\n3. The possibility of direct impacts from Irma in Hispaniola, the\nTurks and Caicos, and the Bahamas later this week is increasing.\nResidents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and\nlisten to advice given by officials.\n\n4. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have\non the continental United States.  Regardless, everyone in\nhurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane\nplan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/1500Z 17.7N  48.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  04/0000Z 17.1N  50.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  04/1200Z 16.6N  52.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/0000Z 16.4N  54.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  05/1200Z 16.7N  56.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  06/1200Z 18.2N  61.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  07/1200Z 20.4N  67.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  08/1200Z 22.5N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Irma has degraded slightly since\nthis morning with the eye becoming less defined.  There is evidence\nof some northerly flow beneath the cirrus outflow, which may be\ndisrupting the inner core and preventing Irma from strengthening.\nThe latest consensus of the Dvorak satellite estimates suggest that\nthe 100 kt initial intensity could be a little generous, but with a\nNOAA aircraft headed into the hurricane it is best to wait until\ndata from that mission is received before making any adjustment to\nthe initial wind speed.\n\nIrma has been moving more westward since the previous advisory, but\nthe longer-term motion estimate is still south of due west or\n260/12 kt.  A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic\nshould steer Irma westward to west-southwestward during the next\ncouple of days.  After that time, a turn toward the west-northwest\nshould occur as Irma approaches the western portion of the Atlantic\nridge.  The cross-track spread of the guidance is still relatively\nsmall through day 5, but the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF are on the\nsouthern side of the guidance envelope, with the GFS near the\nmiddle of the envelope.  The latest NHC track is once again near\nthe consensus of these typically reliable models, which is between\nthe southern edge of the guidance and the TCVN multi-model\nconsensus.  The updated track is not very different from the\nprevious advisory, except at day 5 where it is slightly west of\nthe previous forecast.\n\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.\nIn fact, ASCAT data that arrived after the issuance of the previous\nadvisory indicated that the size of the tropical-storm-force wind\nfield has expanded, especially over the northern semicircle.  As a\nresult, the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted\naccordingly.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by\nthe middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by\ndangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough\nsurf and rip currents.  Hurricane watches have been issued for\nportions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical\nstorm watches may be required on Monday.  Residents in these areas\nshould monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by\nofficials.\n\n2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through\nthe upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.\nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and\nthe Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the\nprogress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.  Tropical\nstorm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.\nVirgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.\n\n3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have\non the continental United States.  Regardless, everyone in\nhurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane\nplan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  03/2100Z 17.6N  49.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  04/0600Z 17.2N  51.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  04/1800Z 16.8N  53.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/0600Z 16.8N  55.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  05/1800Z 17.3N  58.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  06/1800Z 19.1N  63.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  07/1800Z 21.2N  68.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  08/1800Z 23.0N  73.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 03 2017\n\nObservations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated a 25 n\nmi diameter eye and maximum SFMR-observed surface winds close to\n100 kt.  That value will be retained for the official intensity.\nCentral core convection is beginning to become a little better\norganized on satellite imagery and the upper-level outflow is\nwell defined.  Given the favorable environment, Irma is likely to\nstrengthen some more over the next day or two.  The official\nintensity forecast follows the model consensus.\n\nBased on center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters, Irma has been\nmoving a little south of west or around 255/12 kt.  A strong high\npressure ridge over the central Atlantic should steer Irma on a\nwest-southward to westward course over the next couple of days.\nAfter that time, a turn toward the west-northwest is likely while\nIrma nears the western portion of the ridge.  There continues to be\na rather small cross-track spread in most of the track guidance\nmodels, but there are some speed differences.  The official track\nforecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance and is just\nslightly south of the previous NHC prediction.\n\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands by\nthe middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by\ndangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough\nsurf and rip currents.  Hurricane watches have been issued for\nportions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical\nstorm watches or warnings may be required on Monday.  Residents in\nthese areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice\ngiven by officials.\n\n2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through\nthe upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.\nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and\nthe Bahamas.  Residents in all of these areas should monitor the\nprogress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.  Tropical\nstorm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.\nVirgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.\n\n3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have\non the continental United States.  Regardless, everyone in\nhurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane\nplan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0300Z 17.2N  51.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  04/1200Z 16.7N  52.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  05/0000Z 16.5N  54.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/1200Z 16.8N  57.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  06/0000Z 17.4N  59.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  07/0000Z 19.3N  65.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  08/0000Z 21.2N  70.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  09/0000Z 22.8N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017\n\nIrma's signature in infrared satellite images has been improving\nover the past few hours.  An eye has appeared and is warming, and\nthe central dense overcast has become more symmetric.  Although the\nsatellite presentation is better than when a NOAA plane\ninvestigated Irma last evening, the initial intensity will be held\nat 100 kt for now.  Another NOAA P3 aircraft is just now beginning\nto sample the hurricane and should provide an updated intensity\nestimate during the next few hours.\n\nA strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central\nAtlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the\ninitial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt.  Irma will begin\nrounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow\nthe hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-\nnorthwestward in 36-48 hours.  Down the road, a large mid-latitude\ntrough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States\nduring the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending\ntoward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern\nCanada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward\ntoward Florida.  As a result, it's becoming increasingly likely that\nIrma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through\n5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this\ncycle during that period.  Remarkably, the track models are very\ntightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in\nthe westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.\n\nAll environmental factors suggest that Irma will at least maintain\nits intensity for the entire 5-day forecast period, if not\nstrengthen gradually.  Oceanic heat content values increase along\nIrma's forecast path, mid-level moisture will be more abundant, and\nvertical shear appears to be generally low.  As a result, the NHC\nintensity forecast continues to call for gradual intensification\nthrough at least 72 hours, with a possibility for some slight\nweakening by days 4 and 5 (but still as a major hurricane).  As with\nany major hurricane, Irma's intensity may fluctuate around these\nforecast intensities, but the overall trend is for a gradual\nincrease of the maximum winds, assuming Irma's core does not move\nover any of the islands in the Greater Antilles.\n\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.\nIn addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute\nmiles at days 4 and 5, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands\nwithin a couple of days as a major hurricane, accompanied by\ndangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough\nsurf and rip currents.  Hurricane watches are in effect for\nportions of the Leeward Islands, and additional hurricane or\ntropical storm watches or warnings will likely be issued later\ntoday. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma\nand listen to advice given by officials.\n\n2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through\nthe upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.\nVirgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the\nBahamas, and Cuba.  Residents in all of these areas should monitor\nthe progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials.\nTropical storm or hurricane watches will likely be issued for the\nBritish and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later today.\n\n3. It is too early to determine what direct impacts Irma might have\non the continental United States.  Regardless, everyone in\nhurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their hurricane\nplan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/0900Z 16.9N  52.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  04/1800Z 16.7N  53.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  05/0600Z 16.6N  56.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  06/0600Z 17.8N  61.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  07/0600Z 19.6N  66.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  08/0600Z 21.0N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  09/0600Z 22.0N  76.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Irma has improved markedly over the\npast 24 hours, with the eye becoming larger and much more distinct.\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported peak 700-mb flight\nlevel winds of 117 kt, SFMR winds of 107 kt, and dropsonde data\nthat support a minimum pressure of around 944 mb. These data\nsupport an initial intensity of 105 kt. The aircraft also reported\nconcentric eyewalls and a double wind maximum during the last couple\nof passes through the center, indicating that an eyewall\nreplacement cycle has likely begun.\n\nIrma is expected to remain within a very favorable environment for\nstrengthening during the next several days and additional\nintensification appears likely. However, eyewall replacement cycles\nare likely to cause some fluctuations in intensity during that time.\nThe NHC forecast brings the hurricane to category 4 strength within\nthe next 24 hours, and then maintains Irma as a powerful hurricane\nduring the next 5 days, assuming that the core of the cyclone does\nnot move over any of the Greater Antilles.\n\nIrma has been moving west-southwestward or 255/11 kt to the south of\na strong mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  The hurricane\nshould turn westward later today or tonight, then west-northwestward\nTuesday as it reaches the southwestern portion of the ridge.  As\nmentioned in the previous NHC discussion, a large mid-latitude\ntrough is expected to amplify over the eastern United States during\nthe next few days.  The global models are unanimous in lifting the\ntrough out to the northeast by late in the week, allowing the\nAtlantic ridge to build westward on days 3 through 5.  The track\nguidance has again shifted westward and southwestward at days 4 and\n5, but the models remain in very good agreement through the forecast\nperiod.  The updated NHC track forecast has been adjusted\nsouthwestward late in the period, and lies very near the consensus\nof the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF models.\n\nSix hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the\ncentral United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude\ntrough.  In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the\nenvironment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data\nwill be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs.\n\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.\nIn addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute\nmiles at days 4 and 5, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as a\ndangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,\nstorm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough surf and rip\ncurrents. Hurricane warnings have been issued for portions of the\nLeeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed to completion, as\ntropical-storm force winds are expected to first arrive in the\nhurricane warning area by late Tuesday.\n\n2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands\nand Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.\nHurricane watches have been issued for these areas, and tropical-\nstorm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early Wednesday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the\nBahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.\nResidents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and\nlisten to advice given by officials.\n\n4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in\nthe Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this\nweekend. In addition, rough surf and dangerous marine conditions\nwill begin to affect the southeastern U.S. coast by later this week.\nOtherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct impacts\nIrma might have on the continental United States. However, everyone\nin hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place, as we are now near the peak of the season.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/1500Z 16.8N  53.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  05/0000Z 16.5N  54.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  05/1200Z 16.7N  57.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  06/0000Z 17.3N  59.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  06/1200Z 18.2N  62.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  07/1200Z 19.9N  68.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  08/1200Z 21.2N  73.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  09/1200Z 22.0N  77.8W  115 KT 130 MPH...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017\n\nIrma remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.  The\neye has become a little smaller and cloud filled this afternoon,\nperhaps the result of an ongoing eyewall replacement.  An Air Force\nreserve reconnaissance aircraft reported a double-eyewall structure\nand double wind maximums during the first pass through Irma but\nnoted that the eyewalls had consolidated somewhat during their\nsecond pass through the center.  The aircraft measured\nflight-level wind of 121 kt in the northeast eyewall and SFMR winds\nof 113 kt. Based on these reports, the peak intensity has been\nincreased to 115 kt, making Irma a category four hurricane.\n\nThe hurricane will be moving through an environment of low vertical\nwind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean\nheat content.  These conditions favor intensification and the\nintensity guidance continues to call for some additional\nstrengthening during the next couple of days.  However, there are\nlikely to be eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict, which\ncould result in some fluctuations in intensity.  Barring land\ninteraction with the islands of the Greater Antilles, Irma is\nforecast to remain a powerful hurricane throughout the 5-day\nforecast period.\n\nIrma has been moving a little south of due west today, and the\nlonger-term motion estimate is 265/11 kt.  The hurricane will\nreach the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge that is\ncentered over the central Atlantic later today or tonight.  This\nshould result in a westward, then west-northwestward turn over the\nnext 24 to 36 hours.  This motion is expected to bring the hurricane\nnear or over the northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday night or early\nWednesday.  A large mid-latitude trough that is predicted to deepen\nover the eastern U.S. during the next few days is forecast to lift\nnortheastward late in the week, which is expected to cause the\nsubtropical ridge over the western Atlantic to build westward.\nAs a result, Irma is predicted to remain on a general\nwest-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5.  The dynamical\nmodel guidance is in excellent agreement through 72 hours, with\nsome increase in spread late in the period, however the typically\nmore reliable ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement through day\n5, and the new NHC track forecast lies very close to those models.\n\nSix hourly upper-air soundings began at 1800 UTC today over the\ncentral United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude\ntrough.  In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently sampling\nthe environment around Irma, and these data will be included in\ntonight's 0000 UTC model runs.\n\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track since\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center.\nIn addition, average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute\nmiles at days 4 and 5, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands a\ndangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,\nstorm surge, and rainfall impacts. Hurricane warnings are in effect\nfor portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations should be rushed\nto completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first\narrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.\n\n2. Irma could directly affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands\nand Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.\nHurricane watches have been issued for these areas, and tropical-\nstorm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early Wednesday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the\nBahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.\nResidents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and\nlisten to advice given by officials.\n\n4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in\nthe Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this\nweekend.  Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct\nimpacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  04/2100Z 16.7N  54.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  05/0600Z 16.6N  56.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  06/0600Z 17.8N  61.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  06/1800Z 18.7N  64.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  07/1800Z 20.4N  69.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  08/1800Z 21.6N  74.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  09/1800Z 23.0N  79.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 04 2017\n\nIrma's satellite presentation remains quite impressive with a\nwell-defined eye and a symmetrical CDO containing very cold cloud\ntops.  Flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from NOAA and\nAir Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the current\nintensity is about 120 kt.  Since the hurricane will be moving\nthrough an environment of low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level\natmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean heat content, additional\nintensification is likely.  The only expected impediment to\nstrengthening should be eyewall replacement cycles, which are\ndifficult to predict.  The official intensity forecast is very\nclose to the latest model consensus, ICON.  Although the consensus\nof the guidance shows slight weakening in the 96- to 120-hour time\nframe, Irma is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane throughout\nthe 5-day forecast period.\n\nCenter fixes from the aircraft indicate a westward motion of about\n270/11 kt.  Irma should turn toward the west-northwest tomorrow\nwhile it is steered by the flow to the south of a mid-level ridge.\nA broad trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern U.S. in\n72 hours and then lift northeastward leaving a weakness in the ridge\nto north of the hurricane.  This should cause a slowing of the\nforward speed near the end of the forecast period.  The official\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the\nmodel consensus.\n\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,\nespecially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors\nare about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands a\ndangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,\nstorm surge, and rainfall impacts.  Hurricane warnings are in effect\nfor portions of the Leeward Islands.  Preparations should be rushed\nto completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first\narrive in the hurricane warning area by late Tuesday.\n\n2. Irma is also expected affect the British and U.S. Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this\nweek.  Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and\ntropical-storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early\nWednesday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the\nBahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.\nResidents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and\nlisten to advice given by officials.\n\n4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in\nthe Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this\nweekend.  Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct\nimpacts Irma might have on the continental United States.  However,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0300Z 16.7N  55.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 12H  05/1200Z 16.9N  57.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  06/0000Z 17.5N  60.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  06/1200Z 18.3N  62.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  07/0000Z 19.3N  65.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  08/0000Z 21.2N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  09/0000Z 22.5N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  10/0000Z 24.0N  80.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern on satellite is spectacular with a clear eye\nsurrounded by a ring of very deep convection. An Air Force plane\nwas in the eye of the hurricane a few hours ago and measured\nsurface winds of 126 kt with the SFMR. Since the plane left, the\ncould pattern has become even more impressive and objective\nT-numbers have been oscillating around 7.0 on the Dvorak scale.\nBased on the average of these estimates, the initial intensity\nis adjusted upward to 130 kt.\n\nThe hurricane will be moving through an environment of low vertical\nwind shear, a moist mid-level atmosphere, and increasing upper-ocean\nheat content, and this is ideal for some additional intensification.\nHowever, given that the SHIPS models do not show any significant\nchange in the intensity, the NHC forecast keeps Irma a powerful\nhurricane through five days.\n\nRecon and satellite fixes indicate that Irma is moving toward the\nwest or 270 degrees at 12 kt. The hurricane is moving around the\nperiphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge, which in fact is quite\nstrong at this time. This persistent pattern should keep Irma on a\ngeneral westward track for the next 24 hours, with a west-northwest\ntrack thereafter. The guidance envelope and many of the ensemble\nmembers of the GFS and the ECMWF models have shifted slightly\nwestward since the previous run. The NHC forecast also shifted\nslightly westward, and it is on top of the multi-model consensus.\nThe confidence in the forecast beyond 3 days is lower, since the\nguidance spreads out more.\n\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,\nespecially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors\nare about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as a\ndangerous major hurricane, accompanied by life-threatening wind,\nstorm surge, and rainfall impacts.  Hurricane warnings are in effect\nfor portions of the Leeward Islands.  Preparations should be rushed\nto completion, as tropical-storm force winds are expected to first\narrive in the hurricane warning area later today.\n\n2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane later this\nweek.  Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and\ntropical-storm-force winds could arrive in these areas by early\nWednesday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the\nBahamas, and Cuba as a dangerous major hurricane later this week.\nResidents in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and\nlisten to advice given by officials.\n\n4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in\nthe Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this\nweekend.  Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct\nimpacts Irma might have on the continental United States.  However,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/0900Z 16.6N  57.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 17.7N  61.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 21.2N  72.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 22.4N  77.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-09-05 12:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Special Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nThis special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and\nforecast intensity of Irma.\n\nNOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently\nmeasured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds\nof around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has\nbeen increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous\ncategory 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still\npossible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next\ncouple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.\n\nNo change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as\nan extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by\nlife-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings\nare in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations\nshould be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are\nexpected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.\n\n2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning\ntomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall.\nHurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-\nstorm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early\ntomorrow.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the\nBahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later\nthis week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of\nIrma and listen to advice given by officials.\n\n4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in\nthe Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this\nweekend.  Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct\nimpacts Irma might have on the continental United States.  However,\neveryone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their\nhurricane plan in place.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1200Z 16.7N  57.7W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 12H  05/1800Z 17.0N  58.9W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  06/0600Z 17.7N  61.5W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.2W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.0W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  08/0600Z 21.2N  72.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  09/0600Z 22.4N  77.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nIrma is an extremely impressive hurricane in both infrared and\nvisible satellite images.  Experimental GOES-16 one-minute visible\nsatellite pictures show a distinct 25-30 n mi wide eye with several\nmesovortices rotating within with eye.  The aircraft have not\nsampled the northeastern eyewall where the strongest winds were\nmeasured shortly before 1200 UTC this morning, but the Air Force\nplane will be entering the eye in that quadrant momentarily.  A peak\nSFMR wind of 154 kt was reported, with a few others of 149-150 kt.\nBased on these data the initial intensity is set at 155 kt for this\nadvisory. This makes Irma the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic\nbasin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC\nrecords.\n\nIrma is expected to remain within low vertical wind shear, a moist\nmid-level atmosphere, and high upper-ocean heat content as it moves\nwest-northwestward during the next several days. These conditions\nshould allow the hurricane to remain very intense throughout much\nof the forecast period, however, fluctuations in intensity are\nlikely to occur as eyewall replacement cycles take place.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance and assumes\nlittle overall interaction of Irma with the islands of the Greater\nAntilles.\n\nIrma continues to move westward at about 12 kt, and a strong\nsubtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic should steer\nIrma generally westward today. The ridge is expected to remain in\nplace over the western Atlantic during the next several days and\nIrma is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout the most of\nremainder of the forecast period.  Around day 5, a shortwave trough\ndropping southward over the central United States is expected to\nbegin eroding the western portion of the ridge, allowing a Irma to\ngain some latitude.  The new NHC track forecast is close to the\nHFIP corrected consensus model and is very similar to the previous\nforecast.\n\nSince Irma is a large hurricane, users are reminded to not focus on\nthe exact forecast track since tropical-storm and hurricane-force\nwinds and life-threatening storm surge extend far from the center.\nResidents in the Leeward Islands should complete their preparations\nvery soon as the weather will begin to deteriorate over the\neasternmost Leeward Islands later this afternoon.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nportions of the northeastern Leeward Islands beginning later today\nand the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico beginning tomorrow.\nPreparations should be rushed to completion before the arrival of\ntropical-storm force winds later today in the Leeward Islands and\ntomorrow morning in Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.\n\n2. Hurricane watches have been issued for portions of the Dominican\nRepublic and Haiti, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos,\nand Irma could bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to\nthose areas on Thursday and Friday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba\nas an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents\nin these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to\nadvice given by officials.\n\n4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma later this week and this\nweekend is increasing in the Florida Keys and portions of the\nFlorida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing\nand magnitude of the impacts. Elsewhere, it is too early to\ndetermine what direct impacts Irma might have on the continental\nUnited States. Everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that\nthey have their hurricane plan in place.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/1500Z 16.8N  58.4W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 17.2N  60.3W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.0W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 21.4N  74.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 22.7N  78.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 24.4N  81.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n \nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n \nDeep convection associated with the disturbance in the central\nAtlantic has become more organized overnight.  Banding features\nare starting to develop as seen in the first-light visible pictures\nfrom the GOES and METEOSAT imagery.  Additionally, the ASCAT\nscatterometers sampled the system at 1140Z and 1234Z, showing that a\nwell-defined - though slightly elongated - center had formed.  The\nmaximum believable winds from ASCAT were 35 kt.  Thus advisories\nare being started on Tropical Storm Jose, the 10th named storm of\nthe Atlantic season.\n \nWith no history on the center location, the motion is estimated to\nbe west-northwest at 11 kt.  Jose should move toward the west or\nwest-northwest for the next three to four days at a slightly faster\nrate of forward speed as it moves south of the deep-layer\nAzores-Bermuda high.  In about four to five days, Jose should turn\ntoward the northwest and slow as it reaches the southwestern\nperiphery of the high.  The model guidance is in good agreement\nwith this scenario and the official forecast is based upon a blend\nof the ECMWF-GFS-UKMET deterministic and ensemble model output.\n \nThe environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite\nconducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are\nvery warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant\nmid-level moisture.  By days four and five, however, the vertical\nshear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to\nits west.  Thus the official intensity forecast show steady\nintensification until day three, then remains flat through day\nfive.  This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus\ntechnique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long\nforecast range.\n \nThe ASCAT observations indicate that the tropical-storm-force winds\nextend out about 40 nm from the center in the southeastern\nquadrant.  The official size forecast suggests a gradual increase in\nsize, based upon the RVCN multi-model consensus approach.\n \n \nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n \nINIT  05/1500Z 12.3N  39.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  06/0000Z 12.8N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  06/1200Z 13.4N  43.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/0000Z 13.9N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  07/1200Z 14.4N  49.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  08/1200Z 16.0N  55.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  09/1200Z 18.5N  59.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n \n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n \nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nIrma continues to exhibit a remarkably impressive satellite\npresentation.  The intensity was increased to 160 kt on the 1800\nUTC intermediate public advisory based on a couple of SFMR winds of\n160 kt measured in the northeastern eyewall by the Air Force\naircraft just prior to that time.  The minimum pressure measured\nby a dropsonde in the eye was 926 mb.  Irma becomes only the fifth\nAtlantic basin hurricane with a peak wind speed of 160 kt or\nhigher.  The others are Allen (1980), the Labor Day Hurricane\nof 1935, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).\n\nThe eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the\nnortheastern Caribbean, and recent images show the development of\nan outer eyewall, likely the beginning stages of an eyewall\nreplacement.  These changes in inner-core structure will likely\nresult in fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days.\nOtherwise, increasing upper-ocean heat content and a very favorable\nupper-level pattern are expected to allow Irma to remain a category\n4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days.  Once again, the NHC\nforecast shows limited interaction of the hurricane with the islands\nof the Greater Antilles.\n\nFixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma\nis moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt.  A strong ridge\nextending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to\nsteer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days.  A large\nmid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to\nlift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep\nIrma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday.\nOver the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the\neast-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of\nthe ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward.  The dynamical model\nguidance is in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is\nincreasing spread thereafter.  The HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWF show a\nmore southerly track and a sharper turn around day 5, while the GFS\nis farther north and east late in the period.  The NHC track is near\na consensus of these models and close to the HFIP corrected\nconsensus. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast\ntrack, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track\nerrors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5,\nrespectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nportions of the northeastern Leeward Islands tonight and tomorrow.\nThese hazards will spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto\nRico tomorrow.  Preparations should be rushed to completion before\nthe arrival of tropical-storm force winds tomorrow morning in Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico.\n\n2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the\nsoutheastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.  Irma is likely to\nbring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from\nWednesday night through Friday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba\nas an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents\nin these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to\nadvice given by officials.\n\n4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week\nand this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to\nincrease in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.\nHowever, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these\nimpacts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 17.1N  59.8W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 17.6N  61.8W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 18.5N  64.6W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 19.5N  67.3W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 20.4N  70.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 21.6N  75.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 22.7N  79.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 24.4N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nA distinct curved band of deep convection wraps more than half way\naround the center of Jose in its southern semicircle.  Due to the\nimproved structure, the Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB\nand SAB have increased to a 3.0 and 2.0, respectively.  A blend of\nthese input gives a 40 kt intensity for the initial time.\n\nJose's current motion is assessed to be west at 11 kt, though this\nis uncertain due to not knowing the initial position with much\nconfidence.  Jose should move toward the west or west-northwest for\nthe next three to four days at a slightly faster rate of forward\nspeed as it moves south of the deep-layer Azores-Bermuda high.  In\nabout four to five days, Jose should turn toward the northwest and\nslow as it reaches the southwestern periphery of the high.  The\nofficial track forecast is primarily based upon a blend of the\nECMWF-UKMET model output and is nearly unchanged from the previous\nadvisory.\n\nThe environment in which Jose is located in appears to be quite\nconducive for development for the next three days as the SSTs are\nvery warm, the vertical shear is very low, and there is abundant\nmid-level moisture.  By days four and five, however, the vertical\nshear may increase in part due to the outflow from Hurricane Irma to\nits west.  Thus the official intensity forecast shows steady\nintensification until day three, then decreases slightly to day\nfive.  This forecast is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus\ntechnique, but has the usual - large - uncertainties at the long\nforecast ranges.\n\nNo new observations have been available, so I have let it ride for\nthe initial tropical-storm-wind radii.  The official size forecast\nindicates a gradual increase in size, based upon the RVCN\nmulti-model consensus approach.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 12.5N  40.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 12.9N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 13.6N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 14.3N  48.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 14.9N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 16.5N  56.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 18.7N  59.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  10/1800Z 22.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n400 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nThe small area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico\nhas become better organized during the past several hours, with deep\nconvection forming over the center.  ASCAT data showed a\nwell-defined circulation with winds of about 30 kt.  Thus, a\ntropical depression has formed, with maximum winds estimated at 30\nkt.  While the cyclone is currently experiencing westerly shear,\nmost of the guidance indicate the shear should gradually lessen.\nCombined with the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, this should\npromote strengthening.  The shear could increase again in a few\ndays, so the intensity forecast will be leveled off at that time.\nThe NHC wind speed prediction is near or slightly higher than the\nmodel consensus, but could be conservative.\n\nThe depression has been drifting eastward during the day.  For the\nnext couple of days, the cyclone isn't expected to move much as it\nis caught in an area of light winds in the mid-levels.  By Friday, a\nridge should build over Texas and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico,\nwhich is likely to steer the system southwestward at a faster pace.\nThe NHC forecast is on the southern side of the guidance, since\nmodels in that area tend to have a northward bias, between the\ncorrected consensus and the ECMWF.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  05/2100Z 22.4N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/0600Z 22.4N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  06/1800Z 22.2N  95.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  07/0600Z 21.8N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  07/1800Z 21.4N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  08/1800Z 20.9N  95.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  09/1800Z 19.7N  97.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nThe satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an\nextremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO.  Reports\nfrom NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the\ncentral pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this\nmorning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled\noff. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current\nintensity remains at 160 kt.  The Meteo-France radar imagery\nsuggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the\naircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum.  If an eyewall\nreplacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt\nadditional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening.\nThe official intensity forecast is near or above the model\nconsensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment,\nIrma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next\nfew days.\n\nLatest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft\nindicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.\nA strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is\nexpected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of\ndays.  A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is\nforecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward\nand keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through\nFriday.  In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over\nthe east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of\nthe ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward.  Some of the dynamical\nmodels have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with\nthe normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier.  The\nofficial track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution.  Users are\nreminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the\nlonger ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and\n225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nportions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico, on Wednesday.  Preparations should be\nrushed to completion.\n\n2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the\nsoutheastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.  Irma is likely to\nbring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from\nWednesday night through Friday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba\nas an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents\nin these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to\nadvice given by officials.\n\n4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week\nand this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to\nincrease in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.\nHowever, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these\nimpacts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 17.4N  61.1W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.1W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.5W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 21.0N  71.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 22.0N  76.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 23.2N  79.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nJose continues to gradually strengthen.  Geostationary and\nmicrowave satellite images indicate that the center of the system\nis located on the north side of the main area of deep convection.\nFragmented curved bands also exist to the north of the center.  The\ninitial intensity is nudged upward to 45 kt, based on a recent\nASCAT pass.  This wind speed estimate is also in agreement with a\nT3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and similar ADT values\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\n\nSatellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 12 kt.  A\nslightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected\nduring the next 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the south and\nsouthwest sides of a subtropical high.  After that time, a slower\nnorthwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a weakness in\nthe ridge.  Although the models agree on the overall scenario, there\nis a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day period on when\nand where Jose makes the northwest turn.  The NHC official track\nforecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, in best\nagreement with the various consensus models.\n\nThe tropical storm is expected to remain in conducive environmental\nconditions for strengthening during the next few days, and Jose will\nlikely become a hurricane in about 24 hours and could be near major\nhurricane strength by 72 hours.  Thereafter, an increase in\nnortherly shear and some drier air should end the strengthening\ntrend and cause some weakening.  The NHC intensity follows the ICON\nand HCCA consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 12.3N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 12.8N  43.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 13.5N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 14.2N  49.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 14.9N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 16.7N  57.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 19.2N  59.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  11/0000Z 22.4N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017\n\nConvection continues near the center of the depression, although it\nisn't very curved at this time.  Overall, westerly shear is keeping\nmost of the thunderstorm activity in the eastern semicircle of the\ncyclone.  Dvorak estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed\nremains 30 kt.  Global models suggest that the westerly shear\nshould gradually subside over the next few days while the\ndepression moves over very warm water.  This is a recipe for\nstrengthening, and the official forecast is similar to the previous\nadvisory.  More guidance members are showing the cyclone eventually\nbecoming a hurricane than the last cycle, so the peak intensity is\nbumped up 5 kt, staying a bit above the model consensus.\n\nMicrowave data indicate the depression continues to drift eastward.\nThe cyclone should gradually turn southward and southwestward as\nhigh pressure builds near Texas, along with an increase in forward\nspeed forecast on Friday.  The guidance has come into somewhat\nbetter agreement on the track forecast during the past 6 hours,\nand little change was made to the previous advisory. The NHC\nforecast remains on the southern side of the guidance, since\nmodels in that part of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tend to have\na northward bias.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 22.2N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 22.1N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 21.8N  95.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 21.5N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 21.2N  95.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 20.8N  95.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  10/0000Z 19.4N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nIrma continues as a Category 5 hurricane this morning, having\npassed over Barbuda a few hours ago.  Earlier data from an Air Force\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included SFMR winds near 155 kt\nand that the central pressure had fallen to 914 mb inside the 25 n\nmi wide eye.  There has been little change in the satellite\nappearance of the hurricane since that time, so the initial\nintensity remains 160 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/14.  Irma is currently being steered by\nthe subtropical ridge to the north, and a general west-\nnorthwestward motion on the south side of the ridge is expected\nduring the next 48-72 h.  This portion of the forecast track is\nlittle changed and is in best overall agreement with the ECMWF\nmodel.  The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to\nlarge eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models\nrelated to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the\nsoutheastern United States.   The bulk of the guidance now calls for\nIrma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the\nFlorida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas.  The official\nforecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the\nprevious forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back\nto the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance.  The\nforecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,\nespecially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors\nare about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.\n\nIrma is likely to remain in a light shear, warm water, environment\nfor the next 3 to 4 days.  The intensity guidance continues to show\nslow weakening during this time, and this part of the intensity\nforecast is little changed from the previous advisory, with Irma\nremaining a strong hurricane during this time.  The intensity\nforecast is lowered at 120 h due to the forecast landfall, and even\nif Irma stays over water it is likely to encounter some vertical\nshear at that time.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nportions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico, today.  Preparations should be rushed to\ncompletion.\n\n2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, as well as the southeastern Bahamas and the\nTurks and Caicos, with hurricane watches for portions of Haiti and\nthe central Bahamas. Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm\nsurge, and rainfall to these areas from Wednesday night through\nFriday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba\nas an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents\nin these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to\nadvice given by officials.\n\n4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week\nand this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to\nincrease in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.\nHowever, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these\nimpacts.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 17.9N  62.6W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 18.6N  64.6W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.3W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 20.6N  70.0W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 21.3N  72.5W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 22.5N  77.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 24.0N  80.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 26.5N  80.9W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Jose's banding features are becoming\nbetter established, and the center is now located near the middle of\nthe central dense overcast.  An average of the Dvorak estimates from\nTAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin at\n0600 UTC supported an intensity of 45 kt, but since the storm\ncontinues to organize, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50\nkt at this time.\n\nSatellite fixes suggest that Jose is moving westward at 11 kt.  A\nslightly faster westward to west-northwestward motion is expected\nduring the next 2 to 3 days while Jose moves in the flow on the\nsouth and southwest sides of a subtropical high.  After that time, a\nslower northwestward motion is forecast when Jose moves into a\nweakness in the ridge.  Although the models agree on the overall\nscenario, there is a considerable amount of spread in the 4 to 5 day\nperiod on when and where Jose makes the northwest turn.  The NHC\nofficial track forecast is shifted slightly to the left of the\nprevious one to come into better agreement with the latest consensus\naids.\n\nAdditional steady strengthening seems likely during the next few\ndays since Jose is expected to remain in favorable environmental\nconditions.  In fact, the SHIPS model shows a 28 percent chance of\nJose rapidly intensifying during the next 24 hours.  Therefore, the\nNHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the model guidance,\nbringing Jose to hurricane strength by tonight and to near major\nhurricane strength in 72 hours.  Thereafter, an increase in vertical\nwind shear and drier air should end the strengthening trend and\ncause some weakening.  This intensity forecast is largely an update\nof the previous one, and it is in good agreement with the HCCA\nmodel.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 12.5N  42.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 13.0N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 13.7N  48.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 14.3N  50.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 14.9N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 16.7N  57.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 19.4N  60.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  11/0600Z 22.7N  63.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Katia Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n400 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nConventional satellite imagery shows improved organization of the\ncloud pattern during the past several hours, with recent cold cloud\ntop of -80C associated with deep convective bursts near the surface\ncenter. An earlier SSMI/S microwave pass also revealed a developing\ncurved band feature in the eastern portion of the cyclone.\nAdditionally, a 0306 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated winds of 35 kt\nin the aforementioned rain band.  A Dvorak satellite intensity\nestimate of 35 kt from TAFB and the scatterometer wind data support\nupgrading the depression to Tropical Storm Katia at this time.\nThe SHIPS model and the CIMSS shear analysis indicate westerly shear\nimpinging the western side of Katia, but the flow aloft appears to\nbe more diffluent now, indicative of the recent deep convective\noutbreak.  Guidance continues to suggest that the shear will relax\nin about 36 hours which should allow Katia to strengthen, possibly\nto a hurricane as indicated in the HWRF forecast.  There are no\nchanges to the intensity forecast from the previous advisory, and\nit's based on the IVCN multi-model.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 110/2\nkt. Katia has been drifting generally in this direction during the\npast several hours within weak steering currents associated with a\nmid-tropospheric trough digging southwestward from the Mississippi\nValley.  Later today, Katia should begin a gradual turn\nsoutheastward and southwestward around the 36 hour period as a\nmid-level ridge builds over the western gulf from Texas.  The\nofficial forecast basically splits the guidance envelope and is\nhedged toward the HFIP Corrected Consensus Model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 22.1N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 21.9N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 21.6N  95.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 21.3N  95.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 21.1N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 20.4N  96.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  10/0600Z 19.2N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nThe eye of Irma passed over Barbuda, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin\nthis morning, and will be moving over portions of the British and\nU.S. Virgin Islands shortly.  A NOAA National Ocean Service\nobserving site on Barbuda measured sustained winds of 103 kt with a\ngust to 135 kt earlier this morning before the anemometer failed.\nThe station also reported a minimum pressure of 916.1 mb.  A minimum\npressure of 915.9 mb was reported on St. Barthelemy.  An Air Force\nreconnaissance aircraft that performed a single pass through the eye\nthis morning reported SFMR winds of 152 kt in the northwestern\neyewall around 12Z.  Assuming there are stronger winds in the\nnortheastern eyewall, the initial intensity remains 160 kt for this\nadvisory.  Another Air Force aircraft is currently entering the\nstorm.\n\nIrma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt.  A strong high\npressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is\nexpected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2\nto 3 days.  The track guidance is in good agreement during this\nperiod and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance\nenvelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected\nconsensus model.  After that time, a shortwave trough moving\nsouthward over the east-central United States is expected to erode\nthe western portion of the ridge.  As a result, Irma is forecast to\nturn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount\nof uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of\nrecurvature.  The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in\nbetter agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should\nbe noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members\nthat take Irma over and/or west of Florida.  The updated NHC track\nis in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean.  Users are\nreminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are\nabout 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.\n\nIrma is forecast to remain within favorable atmospheric conditions\nand over warm waters during the next 3 to 4 days.  Therefore, Irma\nis likely to remain a very powerful hurricane during this time, and\nthe NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory\nthrough day 4.  Since the 120-h forecast point is now offshore, the\nintensity forecast at that time has been adjusted accordingly.\n\nNow that Irma's eye is clearly visible in radar imagery from San\nJuan, Tropical Cyclone Updates with hourly position estimates\nwill be issued starting at 1200 PM AST (1600 UTC).\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nportions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico today.\n\n2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, the Turks and\nCaicos, and portions of Haiti, with a hurricane watch in effect for\nthe central Bahamas and much of Cuba.  Irma is likely to bring\ndangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to some of these areas\ntonight through Friday.\n\n3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba\nas an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents\nin these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to\nadvice given by officials.\n\n4. Direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and rainfall are possible\nin the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula beginning\nlater this week and this weekend.  However, given the forecast\nuncertainty at these time ranges, it is too soon to specify the\nlocation and magnitude of these impacts.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 18.2N  64.0W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 19.0N  66.2W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 20.2N  69.0W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 21.2N  71.7W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 21.9N  74.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 22.9N  78.1W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 25.2N  80.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 29.0N  80.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nJose is better organized this morning with an initial Dvorak\nintensity estimate of T3.5 from TAFB. This estimate lies between\na lower SAB T3.0 and CIMSS ADT T4.0. Since the initial Dvorak fix,\nSSMIS microwave imagery is showing a well defined center and an\nenhanced outer band, a precursor to potentially rapid\nintensification. Therefore initial intensity has been increased to\n60 knots, slightly higher than TAFB T number.\n\nInitial position estimate is a compromise of TAFB and SAB\nsatellite fixes and a steady west-northwest motion at 15 knots\nshould continue on the southwest periphery of extensive subtropical\nridge to the north and northeast of Jose. Satellite imagery does\nreveal drier air north of Jose but general trends suggest favorable\nupper level outflow and, given considerable distance,\ndo any not expect any adverse influences from Irma to effect Jose\nat this time. Both satellite and model guidance indicate Jose will\ncontinue to exist within a very favorable synoptic regime to\nsupport intensification through 72 hours.\n\nAlthough the models agree on the overall scenario, there is support\nfor somewhat stronger ridging north of Jose and official track\nhas subsequently been shifted slightly left/west of previous\nforecast track but remains very close to model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 13.1N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 13.7N  46.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 14.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 14.8N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 15.4N  55.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 17.3N  58.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  10/1200Z 20.2N  61.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  11/1200Z 23.6N  64.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecasters Carbin/Bann/Lamers\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Katia Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nSatellite and microwave data indicate that the cloud pattern\nassociated with Katia is gradually becoming better organized with\nabundant convection near the center and improving outflow. An\naverage of subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB as well as\nobjective Dvorak T-numbers from CIMMS yield an initial intensity of\n40 kt, or perhaps a little bit higher.  An Air Force plane will\ncheck Katia later today, and we will have a better estimate of the\nstructure of the cyclone.\n\nCurrently, the upper-level wind pattern is not very conducive for\nstrengthening, but most of the global models as well as the SHIPS\nguidance indicate that the environment will become favorable with\nweaker shear. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for Katia to\nbecome a hurricane before it approaches the coast of the state of\nVeracruz.\n\nKatia is embedded within weak steering currents, and the cyclone\nwill most likely meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico\nfor the next day or two. After that time global models develop a\nridge over the northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will\nsteer Katia southwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC\nforecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and is\nnot very different from the previous NHC track.\n\nGiven the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward\nthe coast, a hurricane watch could be required for a portion of\nthe coast of the state of Veracruz later today.  This system is\nforecast to bring very heavy rains primarily to the state of\nVeracruz during the next few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 21.7N  95.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 21.4N  95.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 21.0N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 21.0N  95.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 20.7N  95.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 19.5N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nThe eye of Irma passed over the northernmost Virgin Islands earlier\nthis afternoon and it is now located just to their northwest.  The\nsatellite and radar presentation of the hurricane remains extremely\nimpressive.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported\npeak SFMR winds of 156 kt and flight-level winds of 164 kt during\nits mission this afternoon.  Although there have been no SFMR or\nflight-level winds as high as what was observed yesterday, the\ninitial intensity remains 160 kt, due to the potential of\nundersampling.  Dropsonde observations in the eye indicated that the\npressure rose a few millibars this morning, but the most recent\naircraft report shows that the pressure has fallen to 914 mb.\n\nThe hurricane remains on a west-northwestward motion at about 14\nkt.  A high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to\nkeep Irma on a west-northwestward course over the next 48 to 72\nhours.  The track guidance is still in good agreement during that\nperiod, and little change to the NHC forecast was required.  By the\nweekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the east-central\nUnited States is expected to cause Irma to turn northwestward and\nnorthward.  The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly\nwestward, closer to the previous NHC forecast.  As a result, little\noverall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast.  The NHC\ntrack is once again close to the HFIP corrected consensus model.\nThis is also near the 12Z GEFS ensemble mean, but a little east of\nthe latest ECMWF ensemble mean.  Users are reminded that the average\nNHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles,\nrespectively.\n\nLow vertical wind shear and warm waters along the forecast track of\nIrma should allow it to remain a very powerful hurricane during the\nnext several days, and the intensity forecast is again near the\nupper-end of the guidance and is the same as the previous advisory\nthrough 96 hours.  Increasingly southwesterly shear and potential\nland interaction late in the period is expected to cause some\ndecrease in Irma's strength by day 5.\n\nEfforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as possible\ncontinue, with 6-hourly NWS balloon launches across much of the\ncontinental United States, and the NOAA G-IV aircraft currently\nsampling the environment around the storm.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nPuerto Rico tonight, the northern coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and\nthe Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday\nand Friday.\n\n2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and\nmuch of Cuba.  Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.\n\n3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the\nweekend and early next week has increased.  Hurricane watches could\nbe issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula\non Thursday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 18.8N  65.4W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 19.6N  67.6W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 20.7N  70.4W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 21.5N  73.1W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 22.2N  75.6W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 23.2N  79.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 26.0N  80.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 31.0N  81.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nJose has continued to become better organized.  Banding convection\nhas become very symmetric around the center, and the upper-level\noutflow has become well established in all quadrants, despite the\npresence of Hurricane Irma to the west.  An eye-like dimple has\noccasionally been observed in visible imagery during the afternoon.\nThe initial intensity is now 65 kt, based on the latest Dvorak\nintensity estimate from TAFB.  There is no reason to believe that\nthe recent intensification trend will end soon.  In fact, the SHIPS\nRapid Intensification Index gives a 48 percent chance of\nintensification of 30 kt (or more) in the next 24 h.  My forecast is\njust shy of that, and is close to the intensification rate shown by\nthe HWRF for the next 36 h.  After about 48-72 h, the vertical wind\nshear is forecast to increase, and all of the models forecast\nweakening. Overall, the NHC forecast is a little above the model\nconsensus for the first 72 h, but close to IVCN by the end of the\nforecast.\n\nA pair of late-arriving ASCAT passes and recent visible imagery\nindicate that Jose is a little farther north than previously\nestimated.  The initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt.  Due to the\nnorthward shift of the initial position, the forecast has been\nadjusted in that direction for the first 48 h.  However, the\nreasoning behind the forecast has not changed, and Jose should\ncontinue on a fairly steady west-northwest track, steered primarily\nby the subtropical ridge. After that time, a mid-level trough should\ncause the ridge to retreat eastward, allowing Jose to gain more\nlatitude. The global models, especially the ECMWF, are suggesting\nthat this turn may occur a little later than previously expected,\nand have shifted westward a little bit.  The new NHC forecast at 96\nand 120 h is very close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and\nis about a degree west of the previous forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 13.9N  45.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 14.5N  48.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 15.1N  51.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 15.8N  54.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 16.4N  56.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 18.5N  60.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  10/1800Z 21.5N  63.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  11/1800Z 25.0N  67.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n400 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nAn Air Force reconnaissance plane just investigated Katia and found\na much better organized tropical cyclone with a partial eyewall. It\nalso measured a flight-level wind of 71 kt and 66 kt with the SFMR.\nBased on these data and the improved satellite presentation, Katia\nis upgraded to a hurricane with 65 kt winds.\n\nThe upper-level wind pattern is becoming more favorable, and that\ncan be observed by the expansion of the outflow. All models continue\nto favor intensification, and in fact, the SHIPS RI index gives a\n63 percent chance of a 30-kt wind increase in 24 hours. The NHC\nforecast calls for strengthening but at this time is not as high as\nsome of the guidance.\n\nKatia is embedded within very weak steering currents, and it is now\nmoving slowly toward the southeast at about 3 kt. The hurricane is\nforecast to meander in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next\nday or two. After that time the global models develop a ridge over\nthe northern Gulf of Mexico and this flow pattern will steer Katia\nsouthwestward toward the state of Veracruz. The NHC forecast is\nbasically on top of the multi-model consensus and follows the trend\nof the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.\n\nGiven the upward intensity trend and the forecast track toward\nthe coast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch\nfor a portion of the coast of the state of Veracruz.  Katia is also\nforecast to bring torrential rains primarily to the state of\nVeracruz during the next few days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 21.7N  95.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 21.5N  94.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 21.3N  94.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 21.1N  95.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  08/1800Z 20.9N  95.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  09/1800Z 19.5N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nEarlier radar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D showed a\nconcentric eyewall, and observations from an Air Force Hurricane\nHunter aircraft showed a secondary wind maximum over the northwest\nquadrant.  These phenomena may be associated with some weakening,\nbut since the central pressure hasn't risen much the intensity is\nheld at 160 kt at this time.  Moreover, the concentric eyewall has\nbecome less apparent in recent radar imagery.  Considerable\nlightning activity has been noted in the eyewall of Irma, which\nresearch has shown to sometimes be a harbinger of weakening.\nNotwithstanding, low vertical wind shear and warm waters along the\nforecast track of Irma should allow it to remain a very powerful\nhurricane during the next several days.  The official intensity\nforecast is similar to the previous one except at day 5 when\nstronger shear should cause more weakening.  This forecast is\ngenerally above the intensity model consensus.\n\nIrma continues on a west-northwestward heading at around 14 kt.  A\nridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic should maintain\nthis course for the next 48 to 72 hours.  Later in the forecast\nperiod a shortwave trough moving into the southeastern United\nStates is likely to turn the hurricane northwestward to\nnorth-northwestward.  There has been a slight eastward shift in\nsome of the track guidance models, but since the models could shift\nback to the west it is prudent to make little change to the\nofficial forecast at this time.  In any event, users are reminded\nnot to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track\nerrors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nPuerto Rico tonight, the northern coast of Hispaniola Thursday, and\nthe Turks and Caicos and southeastern and central Bahamas Thursday\nand Friday.\n\n2. Hurricane watches are in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and\nmuch of Cuba.  Irma is likely to bring dangerous wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall to portions of these areas on Friday and Saturday.\n\n3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the\nweekend and early next week has increased.  Hurricane watches will\nlikely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida\npeninsula on Thursday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 19.4N  66.8W  160 KT 185 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 20.3N  68.8W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 21.3N  71.7W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 22.1N  74.1W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 22.7N  76.3W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 24.0N  79.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 27.4N  80.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nJose's deep convection displays a tightly curved band that wraps at\nleast twelve-tenths around the center.  Dvorak intensity estimates\nfrom both TAFB and SAB have increased accordingly.  Thus, maximum\nsustained winds are analyzed for Jose at 75 kt, very close to that\nfrom the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique.\n\nJose is likely to continue developing during the next day or two\nwhile the vertical shear is low, the SSTs are around 29C, and the\nmid-level humidity is moist.  However, beginning in two to three\ndays, the outflow from large, strong hurricane Irma to Jose's west\nshould start inducing more shear, inducing a steady weakening\nby days four and five. The official intensity forecast is based upon\na blend of the LGEM, HWRF, and COAMPS models.  Jose's anticipated\npeak intensity of 105 kt is slightly higher than the previous\nadvisory, while days four and five show a more quickly weakening\nsystem at that time.\n\nThe hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest around 15 kt, as\nit is being advected along the south side of the deep-layer Bermuda\nhigh.  This motion should continue for the next couple of days.\nDuring days three to five, Jose should bend toward the northwest as\nit moves around the periphery of the Bermuda high.  The official\ntrack forecast is based upon the very tightly clustered guidance\n(and their consensus technique - TVCN), which is somewhat west of\nthe previous advisory.\n\nIf future guidance further shifts westward, then tropical storm or\nhurricane watches may be required for portions of the Leeward\nIslands on Thursday.\n\nJose is a small hurricane with tropical-storm-force winds extending\nout at most 70 nm from the center, based upon NDBC Buoy 41041 and\nthe 0006Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass.  The official size foreast -\nbased upon the RVCN consensus - suggests a gradual increase in size\nfor the next three days. Interestingly, buoy 41041 measured a\npeak 1-minute wind (at 5 m anemometer height) of 61 kt around 22Z.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 14.4N  47.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 14.9N  49.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 15.5N  53.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 16.1N  55.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 16.8N  58.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 19.3N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  11/0000Z 22.4N  65.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  12/0000Z 25.9N  68.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 06 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Katia has a small symmetric central\ndense overcast with very deep convection near the center.\nSubjective and objective Dvorak estimates have risen since the past\nadvisory and, after accounting for the low bias earlier, support an\ninitial wind speed of 70 kt.  With wind shear forecast to drop while\nthe hurricane remains over very warm waters, it is puzzling to see\nthat most of the regional hurricane guidance is only showing a small\nincrease in wind speed. Although this area of the Gulf of Mexico is\nknown for significant upwelling, Katia is a rather small tropical\ncyclone that shouldn't stir up as much cool water from below as most\nhurricanes would. After considering the potential upwelling and the\nextremely favorable upper-level environment, the intensity forecast\nis raised from the previous one, but could be conservative since the\nSHIPS RI index is showing roughly a 50 percent of rapid\nintensification during the next 24 hours.\n\nKatia is drifting east-southeastward, caught in a light steering\narea between two ridges.  The hurricane should gradually turn\nsouthwestward during the next 24 hours, then accelerate after that\ntime due to a strengthening ridge over the northwestern Gulf of\nMexico.  The official forecast is very similar to the previous one,\non the south side on the dynamical model consensus TVCN in the\ndirection of the corrected consensus.\n\nGiven the latest wind radii forecast, the government of Mexico has\nextended the hurricane watch northward to Cabo Rojo.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 21.7N  94.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 21.5N  94.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 21.3N  94.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  08/1200Z 21.1N  95.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  09/0000Z 20.6N  96.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  10/0000Z 19.0N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  33...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nCorrected to modify Key Messages to reflect the issuance of a\nhurricane warning for the northwestern Bahamas.\n\nIrma has become a little less organized during the past few hours.\nData from an Air Force reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0500\nUTC indicated that the central pressure had risen to 921 mb and\nthat the winds had decreased both at the 700 mb flight-level and in\nsurface estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.\nSince that time, the eye has become cloud filled and the central\nconvection has become somewhat ragged.  The initial intensity is\nlowered to 155 kt, and this could be a little generous.  The next\naircraft is scheduled to reach Irma around 1200 UTC.\n\nThe initial motion is 290/15.  The hurricane is currently being\nsteered by the subtropical ridge to the north, and for the next\n48 h or so this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in\nthe forward speed.  After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough\ndigging into the eastern United States is expected to create a\nbreak in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward.  The timing of\nthe turn is the most important question and one still filled with\nuncertainty.  The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the\nmodels showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into\nthe southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the\nFlorida Peninsula.  The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the\nmiddle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern\nportion of the Florida Peninsula.  The GFS, Canadian, and GFS\nEnsemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of\nthe coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States.  The\nnew forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the\nFlorida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and\nit calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern\nFlorida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into\nsouthern South Carolina by 120 h.   Users are again reminded not to\nfocus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days\n3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.\n\nIrma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for\nabout the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong\nhurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4.  Fluctuations in intensity\nare likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement\ncycles.  The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase\nstarting at about 72 hr.  However, due to the uncertainty as to\nwhether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at\ncategory 4 strength until landfall in Florida.  The 96-120 h points\nnow have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land\ninteraction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it\nreaches the southeastern United States.\n\nSince Irma is moving away from Puerto Rico and the radars there, the\nhourly position estimates are discontinued after this advisory.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\nbring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to\nthe northern coast of Hispaniola today, the Turks and Caicos\ntonight, and the Bahamas tonight through Saturday.\n\n2. A hurricane watch is in effect much of Cuba.  Irma is likely to\nbring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of these\nareas on Friday and Saturday.\n\n3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the\nweekend and early next week continues to increase.  Hurricane\nwatches will likely be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and\nthe Florida peninsula later this morning.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 20.0N  68.3W  155 KT 180 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 20.7N  70.5W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 21.7N  73.1W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N  75.5W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 22.8N  77.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 24.5N  80.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 28.5N  80.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 33.0N  81.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven/Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nEnhanced BD-curve infrared imagery indicates some improvement of\nthe inner core during the past several hours.  The earlier\nidentified banding eye feature in microwave imagery appears to be\nclosing off in the west side.  Based on the overall improvement of\nthe cloud pattern and a consensus of the satellite intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 80\nkt.  Further strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours.\nAfter that time, increasing northerly shear associated with the\noutflow of Hurricane Irma should inhibit further intensification\nand subsequently, cause the cyclone to begin weakening.  The\nintensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN consensus model\nand is close to the HWRF through 48 hours.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16\nkt, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the western extent\nof a subtropical high to the north.  Jose should continue on this\ngeneral west-northwestward track through the 36 hour period.\nAfterward, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in response\nto a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the northeast.\nThis transition in the synoptic steering pattern should influence\nJose in a more northwestward motion through the remainder of the\nforecast period.  The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the\nprevious advisory beyond 48 hours, and is based on a blend of the\nHFIP Corrected consensus model and the ECMWF.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.8N  49.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 15.2N  51.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 15.8N  54.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 16.4N  57.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 17.2N  59.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  10/0600Z 19.7N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  11/0600Z 23.0N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  12/0600Z 26.4N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nKatia has not changed appreciably during the past several hours\nwith a small central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in\nthe northeastern quadrant.  Satellite estimates are about the same\nas earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay at 70 kt.  An Air\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the\nhurricane in a few hours to get a better estimate of the current\nintensity.  Katia is forecast to be over very warm waters with\ndecreasing shear for the next 24-36 hours.  Thus strengthening is\nexpected as long as the center remains offshore.  It is still\npuzzling why most of the guidance don't intensify this much, but\nsince the global models continue to show significant deepening, the\nofficial forecast will stay on the high side of the guidance.\n\nThe hurricane is essentially stationary, waiting for a ridge to\nbuild over the northwestern Gulf to steer Katia southwestward at a\nfaster pace.  Most of the guidance are in agreement on this track,\nalthough the UKMET is a notable outlier showing more of a westward\nmotion.  The only significant change from the previous advisory is\nto speed up the track of Katia as it approaches the coast.  Given\nthe latest track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a\nHurricane Warning for the previous Hurricane Watch area.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 21.5N  94.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 21.5N  94.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 21.2N  95.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 20.8N  95.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 20.2N  97.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  10/0600Z 19.5N  99.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nThe eye on satellite continues to be quite distinct, and data from\nan Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the initial\nintensity is 150 kt. The central pressure remains near 921 mb.\n\nThe environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the\nhurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some\nfluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which\nare difficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma\nwill not remain a powerful hurricane for the next 3 days while\napproaching Florida. Thereafter, an increase in the wind shear could\nlead to gradual weakening, but Irma is expected to remain a\nmajor hurricane until landfall occurs.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest\nor 290 degrees at 14 kt. Irma is being steered by the flow around\nthe south side of the subtropical ridge, but in 2 to 3 days, the\nhurricane will be located on the southwestern edge of the\naforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north-\nnorthwest should then begin. There has been no change in the\nguidance which is still quite clustered and brings the core\nof Irma very near the southeast Florida coast in about 3 days.\nThe NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous one, is very\nclose to the multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus\nHCCA. The later has been performing very well during Irma.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\ncontinue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall\nhazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola today. These hazards\nwill spread across the Turks and Caicos tonight and the Bahamas\ntonight through Saturday.\n\n2. A hurricane watch is in effect for much of Cuba. Irma is likely\nto bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to portions of\nthese areas on Friday and Saturday.\n\n3. The threat of dangerous major hurricane impacts in Florida\ncontinues to increase. A hurricane watch has been issued for south\nFlorida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay. This\nwatch will likely be expanded northward later today. Residents in\nthese areas should heed any advice given by local officials.\n\n4. A storm surge watch has also been issued for portions of south\nFlorida and the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of\nlife-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the\ncoastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential\nStorm Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\nthrough 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the\nwatch area.\n\n5. The chance of direct impacts is increasing in portions of\nGeorgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to\nspecify the magnitude and location of the impacts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 20.4N  69.7W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 21.1N  71.7W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 21.9N  74.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 22.5N  76.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 23.1N  78.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 25.5N  80.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 30.1N  80.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 35.0N  82.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nJose is developing an eye.  Convection remains very symmetric around\nthe center, and a well-defined mid-level eye has been evident in\nmicrowave imagery throughout the morning.  Outflow remains well\nestablished in all quadrants, despite the close proximity of Irma\nto the west, perhaps in part due to the small size of Jose.  The\ninitial intensity has been held at 80 kt, based on the latest Dvorak\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB.  However, the overall trend of\nintensification is not likely to have ended, and Jose is still\nforecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 h.  After about 48\nh, most of the intensity guidance indicates that Jose will begin to\nweaken, but the extent of that weakening varies quite a bit, in\npart due to uncertainty surrounding how much the shear from a\ndeep-layer trough to the north and Irma may affect Jose after it\npasses the Leeward Islands.  The official forecast is still close to\nthe HWRF for the first 36 h, and close to the intensity consensus,\nIVCN, after that.\n\nThe initial motion remains 285/16 kt.  Almost no change has been\nmade to the first 36 h of the forecast, and the hurricane is still\nexpected to continue west-northwestward, along the southern extent\nof the subtropical ridge. Beyond that time, the global models\nsuggest that an approaching mid-latitude trough will cause the\nridge to retreat, causing Jose to turn more toward the northwest,\nand eventually toward the north. Based on the lastest model runs,\nthis turn may happen a little later than previously expected. Thus,\nthe NHC official forecast has been nudged toward the west at days\n3-5, and is close to the multi-model consensus, TVCX.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.9N  50.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 15.4N  53.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 16.0N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 16.6N  58.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 17.5N  60.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  10/1200Z 20.3N  64.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  11/1200Z 24.0N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  12/1200Z 27.0N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that the central\npressure had dropped to 982 mb and maximum SFMR-observed surface\nwinds were close to 70 kt.  Therefore 70 kt will be retained for the\ncurrent intensity.  Vertical wind shear should remain low over the\nsouthwest Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days and the global\nmodels show well-developed upper-level outflow over the tropical\ncyclone.  Thus, further strengthening is likely up to landfall.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is somewhat higher than the model\nconsensus and Katia could approach major hurricane status before it\ncrosses that coast.\n\nFixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft show essentially no motion\nover the last several hours.  A mid-level ridge is likely to build\nto the north of Katia during the next day or so.  This should\ninduce a west-southwestward motion beginning tonight or early\nFriday, leading to landfall by late Friday or early Saturday.  The\nofficial track forecast is similar to the previous one and close to\nthe model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 21.6N  94.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 21.4N  95.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  08/1200Z 21.2N  95.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  09/0000Z 20.7N  96.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  09/1200Z 19.9N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nHurricane Irma continues to have an impressive satellite\npresentation with a very distinct eye. There is not much more to add\nabout the current intensity except that numerous data from the Air\nForce reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds remain at 150\nkt.\n\nThe environment along the future track of Irma is favorable for the\nhurricane to maintain most of its current intensity, although some\nfluctuations are likely due to eyewall replacement cycles which are\ndifficult to predict. There are no obvious reasons why Irma should\nnot remain a powerful major hurricane for the next 3 days while it\nis heading for Florida or its adjacent surroundings. Thereafter, an\nincrease in the wind shear and the interaction with land should lead\nto gradual weakening.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest\nor 285 degrees at 14 kt. Irma is being steered by the flow around\nthe south side of the subtropical ridge, but in 2 or 3 days the\nhurricane is expected to be located on the southwestern edge of the\naforementioned ridge, and a turn to the northwest and north-\nnorthwest should then begin. The forecast track for the first 2 days\nwas adjusted a little bit to the south given that the ridge to the\nnorth continues to be strong, and the ECMWF and HFIP corrected\nconsensus (HCCA) models have shifted southward a little bit. These\ntwo models have been performing very well during Irma.  This\nadjustment also results in a westward shift of the track near\nFlorida and northward.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\ncontinue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall\nhazards to the northern coast of Hispaniola tonight. These hazards\nare already spreading across the Turks and Caicos and will affect\nthe Bahamas tonight through Saturday. Hurricane conditions will also\nspread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over\nthe adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.\n\n2. It has become more likely that Irma will make landfall in\nsouthern Florida as a dangerous major hurricane, and bring\nlife-threatening storm surge and wind impacts to much of the state.\nA Hurricane Watch is in effect for South Florida, the Florida Keys,\nLake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, and will likely be expanded\nnorthward tonight.\n\n3. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for portions of South Florida\nand the Florida Keys. This means there is the possibility of\nlife-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the\ncoastline during the next 48 hours in these areas. The Potential\nStorm Surge Flooding Map depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -\nthe amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being\nexceeded. Because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\nthrough 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in the\nwatch area.\n\n4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia,\nSouth Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify\nthe magnitude and location of these impacts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 20.9N  71.1W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 21.6N  73.1W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 22.2N  75.5W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 22.7N  77.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 23.4N  79.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 26.2N  80.7W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  11/1800Z 31.5N  82.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\n120H  12/1800Z 36.0N  84.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nJose has continued to develop a well-defined eye on satellite\nimagery this afternoon, with the eye now established in the center\nof a ring of strong convection. 18 UTC Dvorak fixes from TAFB and\nSAB came in at T5.5, which suggests 100 knot intensity. However,\ngiven the ongoing improvements in satellite presentation and CIMSS\nADT numbers which have since climbed higher, the initial intensity\nfor this advisory is set at 105 knots. This makes Jose a Category 3\nhurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. It is the\nthird major hurricane in the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season\n(Harvey, Irma). It also means we have two major hurricanes\nsimultaneously in the Atlantic basin, which is not too common --\nespecially in such close proximity. The last time this happened was\nin 2010 when Igor and Julia were both major hurricanes on September\n15-16, and then Igor and Karl were both major hurricanes briefly on\nSeptember 17.\n\nIn the near-term, most factors appear aligned for continued\nintensification. Outflow remains well-established in all quadrants,\nand Jose has thus far not felt negative impacts from the dry air\nsituated just to its west and northwest. For this reason, we are\ntaking the intensity up to 120 knots at the 24 hour forecast point.\nAfter that, a gradual decrease in intensity is shown, in line with\nmost intensity guidance. However, the intensity forecast generally\nlies above most of the guidance in deference to the ongoing rapid\nintensification trend. Global models do show that some of the dry\nair to the west of Jose may wrap into the circulation in about\n24-36 hours. That may be a contributing factor to the decrease in\nintensity, as well as some increasing shear at the base of an upper\nlevel low in the central Atlantic and perhaps the periphery of\nIrma's upper level outflow. The smaller size of Jose may make it a\nlittle more vulnerable to effects of dry air and shear.\n\nThe initial motion remains at 285/16kt, and Jose will continue to\nbe steered by a well established subtropical ridge. It should not\nreach the ridge axis until about 36-48 hours, at which point the\nridge begins to erode a bit and Jose may turn a bit more toward the\nnorthwest and eventually the north. The forecast track remains very\nsimilar to the previous official forecast through 48 hours --\nroughly between the operational GFS and ECMWF and close to the\nmulti-model consensus. After that time, the steering flow becomes\nweaker and the forward motion should slow down. Models begin to\ndiverge more significantly at 96hr and especially 120hr. The\nforecast at these time ranges lies closer to the multi-model\nconsensus and the operational ECMWF than models that show a quicker\nexit to the east.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 15.5N  52.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 16.0N  54.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 16.6N  57.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 17.3N  59.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 18.4N  61.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 21.9N  65.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 25.5N  67.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 27.3N  67.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Lamers/Carbin\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n400 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nKatia has changed little in organization since this morning, with\nlimited convective banding features.  An eye has not yet become\napparent in satellite imagery.  The current intensity is held at 70\nkt which is roughly the mean of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\nAn Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to\ninvestigate Katia this evening to check its intensity.  Global\nmodels continue to show a well-developed upper-level outflow\nstructure tonight and Friday, and strengthening is likely prior to\nlandfall.  The official intensity forecast is above the model\nconsensus, and it is possible that Katia will approach major\nhurricane status prior to crossing the coast of Mexico early\nSaturday.\n\nComparing afternoon satellite position estimates to reconnaissance\ncenter fixes from this morning, there does not appear to have been\nmuch motion today.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to build to the\nnorth of Katia during the next day or so.  This should cause Katia\nto move generally southwestward, and make landfall in Mexico in 36\nhours or so.  The official track forecast has been shifted just\nslightly southward and is mainly a blend of the latest simple and\ncorrected consensus guidance tracks.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 21.6N  94.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 21.3N  95.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 20.9N  95.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 20.3N  96.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 19.5N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nMicrowave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane\nHunter aircraft indicate that Irma is developing a concentric\neyewall structure, and the plane reported an elliptical eye.  The\nhighest flight-level and SFMR winds measured by the aircraft were\n146 kt and 139 kt, respectively, so the initial intensity is lowered\nslightly to 145 kt.  Irma's central pressure has fallen a bit\ndespite the slight reduction in winds, counterbalanced by an\nexpansion of the hurricane-force wind field as observed by the\nplane.\n\nIf Irma has developed concentric eyewalls, then some additional\ngradual weakening or fluctuations in intensity are possible over\nthe next day or two, despite a seemingly favorable atmospheric and\noceanic environment.  The intensity models depict a very gradual\ndecrease in Irma's maximum winds up until a possible landfall in\nFlorida, but the hurricane is nonetheless expected to still be at\nor near category 4 strength at that time.  After landfall, a fairly\nquick decay in maximum winds is expected due to land interaction\nand increased shear, although Irma's large wind field is likely to\nstill produce hurricane-force winds over a large area.\n\nIrma continues to move west-northwestward at 290/14 kt, steered by\nthe western extent of the subtropical ridge.  Irma should maintain\nthis trajectory but slow down during the next 36 hours, and then\nturn north-northwestward toward a break in the ridge by 72 hours.\nAlthough there was a westward shift in the 18Z GFS, this model's\nnew track puts it very close to the previous NHC forecast.  As\nsuch, no major changes to the NHC track were required on this\nforecast through 72 hours, and the projected path lies between the\nGFS and ECMWF, closest to the TVCN consensus and HCCA.  After 72\nhours, the models are showing a more pronounced turn toward the\nnorthwest when Irma interacts with a shortwave diving southeastward\nfrom the Central Plains, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted\naccordingly at the end of the forecast period.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will\ncontinue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall\nhazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through\nSaturday.  Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of\nHispaniola through Friday.  Hurricane conditions will also\nspread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over\nthe adjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.\n\n2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the\nFlorida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning late Saturday.\nIrma could make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous major\nhurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts\nto much of the state.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for southern\nFlorida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida Bay, while\nHurricane Watches have been issued northward into central Florida.\n\n3. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for southern Florida and the\nFlorida Keys.  A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of\nlife-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from\nthe coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations.\nFor a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather\nService Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at\nhurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons\nlocated within these areas should take all necessary actions to\nprotect life and property from rising water and the potential for\nother dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other\ninstructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch has been\nissued north of the Storm Surge Warning for portions of the central\nFlorida coast.\n\n4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia,\nSouth Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify\nthe magnitude and location of these impacts.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 21.3N  72.4W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 21.8N  74.4W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 22.3N  76.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 22.9N  78.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 23.7N  79.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 27.2N  81.1W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/0000Z 32.0N  83.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n120H  13/0000Z 35.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nAfter strengthening quickly throughout the day, the intensity of\nJose appears to have leveled off this evening.  Nonetheless, Jose\nis an impressive category 3 hurricane.  The eye remains quite\ndistinct and the convective cloud pattern is fairly symmetric.  In\naddition, the upper-level outflow is well established, indicative of\nthe favorable wind flow pattern aloft. The initial intensity is\nheld at 105 kt, in accordance with the Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB\nand SAB.\n\nSome slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24\nhours while Jose remains in relatively conducive environmental\nconditions.  Thereafter, a slow weakening trend is forecast due to\nan increase in wind shear and a progressively drier air mass.  The\nmodels are in fair agreement, and the NHC official intensity\nforecast is in line with the consensus models.  This forecast is\nslightly lower than the previous one.\n\nThe initial motion is 280/16 kt.  The track forecast philosophy is\nunchanged from earlier.  A subtropical ridge should cause Jose to\nmove west-northwestward for the next couple of days, taking the\nhurricane very near the northern Leeward Islands Friday night and\nSaturday.  After that time, the hurricane is expected to move\nnorthwestward and then northward into a weakness in the ridge.  The\nNHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nBased on the latest forecast, the government of Antigua has issued a\ntropical storm warning for Antigua, Barbuda, and Anguilla.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 15.6N  53.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 16.1N  56.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 16.8N  58.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 17.8N  60.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 19.2N  62.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 22.6N  66.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 25.8N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 27.1N  67.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017\n\nThe Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Katia this\nevening and found flight level winds of 80 kt and SFMR values\naround 75 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is\nnudged upward to 75 kt.  Satellite images also show that Katia is\ngetting better organized, with a ragged eye becoming apparent\nduring the last hour or so.  Additional strengthening is possible,\nand Katia could be near major hurricane strength before it makes\nlandfall by Saturday morning.  After landfall, rapid weakening\nis expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged\nterrain of the Sierra Madre mountains shortly after 48 hours.\n\nKatia has now begun the expected slow west-southwest motion.  A\ncontinued slow west-southwestward motion is expected until the\nsystem dissipates. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\none and near the consensus models.\n\nIn addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains\nassociated with Katia is forecast to affect eastern Mexico.  These\nrains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 21.5N  95.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 21.3N  95.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 20.8N  96.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 19.9N  97.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  10/0000Z 19.3N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nMicrowave images and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane\nHunter aircraft indicate that Irma is currently undergoing an\neyewall replacement cycle.  A recent GMI overpass showed an 50 nmi\nwide outer eyewall, with the inner eyewall weakening.  The\nHurricane Hunter aircraft reported peak 700-mb winds of 147 kt in\nthe outer eyewall near 0500 UTC, and maximum SFMR winds were in the\n125-130 kt range.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is\nreduced to 135 kt.\n\nIrma is forecast to remain in a favorable warm water, light shear\nenvironment for the next 36-48 h.  The intensity guidance shows a\nslow weakening during this time, but Irma is expected to remain at\nleast a Category 4 hurricane until landfall in Florida.  After\nlandfall, a fairly quick decay in maximum winds is expected due to\nland interaction and increased shear, although Irma's large wind\nfield is likely to still produce hurricane-force winds over a large\narea.  There are two caveats to the intensity forecast.  First, some\nadditional weakening could occur during the eyewall replacement,\nfollowed by re-intensification as the cycle completes.  Second, the\nECMWF, UKMET, and NAVGEM forecast a track over or close to the\ncoast of Cuba that is not currently a part of the track forecast.\nIf this occurs, Irma could be weaker than currently forecast along\nthe later parts of the track.\n\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward or 285/14.  Irma should\nmaintain this general trajectory for the next 24-36 h as it moves\nalong the southwestern side of the subtropical ridge.  After that\ntime, the guidance is in good agreement that the ridge should break\nand allow Irma to turn north-northwestward to northward.  There\nremains some spread between the models on when the turn will occur,\nwith the GFS/Canadian being on the eastern side of the guidance and\nthe UKMET/NAVGEM on the left side.  The ECMWF, Florida State\nSuperensemble, and the HFIP Corrected consensus are in the middle\nof the guidance envelope, and the new track forecast is in best\nagreement with those models.  Overall, the new forecast track is\nsimilar to the previous forecast, with minor westward adjustments\nat 36 and 48 h.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will\ncontinue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall\nhazards to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas through\nSaturday.  Heavy rainfall is still possible across portions of\nHispaniola through today.  Hurricane conditions will also spread\nover portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the\nadjacent Cuban Keys through Saturday.\n\n2. Severe hurricane conditions are expected over portions of the\nFlorida peninsula and the Florida Keys beginning Saturday night.\nIrma is likely to make landfall in southern Florida as a dangerous\nmajor hurricane, and bring life-threatening storm surge and wind\nimpacts to much of the state.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect for\nsouthern Florida, the Florida Keys, Lake Okeechobee, and Florida\nBay, while Hurricane Watches have been issued northward into central\nFlorida.\n\n3. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for southern Florida and the\nFlorida Keys.  A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of\nlife-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from\nthe coastline, during the next 36 hours. This is a life-threatening\nsituation.  Persons located within these areas should take all\nnecessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and\nthe potential for other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow\nevacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm\nSurge Watch has been issued north of the Storm Surge Warning area\nfor portions of the central Florida coast.\n\n4. There is a chance of direct impacts in portions of Georgia,\nSouth Carolina, and North Carolina, but it is too early to specify\nthe magnitude and location of these impacts.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 21.7N  73.8W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 22.1N  75.7W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 22.6N  77.8W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 23.3N  79.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 24.5N  80.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/0600Z 33.0N  84.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n120H  13/0600Z 36.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nJose's satellite presentation has improved overnight. Cold cloud\ntops of -75C now surround the clearer and more distinct warming eye.\nThe initial intensity is increased to 110 kt and is based on a\ncompromise of the subjective and objective satellite intensity\nT-numbers and recent cloud pattern trends.  Some increase in\nstrength is still possible during the next day or so while the\ncyclone remains in a marginally conducive environment. Through the\nremainder of the forecast period, however, gradual weakening is\nexpected due to an increase in northerly wind shear and an intruding\ndrier more stable thermodynamic environment.  The NHC forecast is\nclose to the HWRF model through 48 hours, and then closely follows\nthe IVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/14\nkt.  Large-scale models are quite similar on a subtropical ridge\nsteering Jose west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, placing\nthe cyclone very near the northern Leeward Islands tonight and\nSaturday.  Through day 5, Jose is expected to move northwestward and\nthen northward in response to a large amplitude mid-tropospheric\ntrough approaching the tropical cyclone from the northwest.  The new\nNHC track forecast is just an update of the previous package and is\nbased on a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the\nECMWF.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 16.0N  55.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 16.6N  57.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 17.3N  59.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 18.5N  61.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 20.0N  63.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 23.5N  67.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 26.4N  68.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  13/0600Z 27.9N  67.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\n400 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nEnhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite\nimage indicate improved banding over the western portion of the\ncirculation and the earlier ragged eye presentation has become much\nmore distinct.  Subsequently, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates\nhave increased along with the Objective ADT T-number, and the\ninitial intensity is bumped up to 80 kt.  Further strengthening is\npossible, and Katia could be near major hurricane intensity prior to\nlandfall Saturday morning.  After landfall, rapid weakening is\nexpected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain\nof the Sierra Madre mountains after the 48 hour period.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 250/3 kt.  A\ncontinued slow west-southwestward motion under the influence of a\nmid-latitude high extending east from Texas is forecast until the\ncyclone makes landfall and quickly dissipates. The official forecast\nhas changed little from the previous one, and is based primarily on\nthe HFIP Corrected Consensus multi-model.\n\nIn addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains\nassociated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These\nrains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 21.3N  95.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 21.0N  96.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 20.3N  97.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  09/1800Z 19.3N  98.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":38,"Date":"2017-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nRecent data from both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes\nindicate that Irma's intensity remains at 130 kt, although this\nvalue could be 5 kt higher or lower. The central pressure has been\noscillating around 927 mb.\n\nThe environment continues to be favorable for Irma to maintain its\ncategory 4 status, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles\ncould result in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours.\nNevertheless, the NHC forecast brings Irma near south Florida as a\ncategory 4 hurricane. Thereafter, interaction with land and an\nincrease in shear should induce gradual weakening.\n\nPlane, satellite and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that the eye of\nIrma is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at about 12\nkt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the next 24\nhours.  After that time, Irma will reach the southwestern edge of\nthe subtropical high and begin to turn north-northwestward and\nnorthward. This turn will occur, but the precise moment is still\nuncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus\non the exact track of the center. The new NHC forecast was adjusted\njust a little bit westward and is on top the latest ECMWF model and\nthe HFIP corrected consensus. In fact, these two aids are also very\nclose to each other.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is an extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane and will\ncontinue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall\nhazards to the Bahamas through Saturday.  Hurricane conditions will\nspread over portions of the north coast of Cuba, especially over the\nadjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.\n\n2. Irma is likely to make landfall in Florida as a dangerous major\nhurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of\nthe state regardless of the exact track of the center.\n\n3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in\nsouthern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,\nwhere a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. In particular, the threat\nof significant storm surge flooding along the southwest coast of\nFlorida has increased, and 6 to 12 feet of inundation above ground\nlevel is possible in this area.  This is a life-threatening\nsituation.  Everyone in these areas should take all actions to\nprotect life and property from rising water and follow evacuation\ninstructions from local officials.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 4 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts of\n20 inches are expected over the Florida peninsula Saturday through\nMonday.  The highest amounts are expected over the eastern Florida\npeninsula and upper Florida Keys.  Irma will likely bring periods of\nheavy rain to much of Georgia, South Carolina, and western North\nCarolina early next week, including some mountainous areas which are\nmore prone to flash flooding.  All areas seeing heavy rainfall from\nIrma will experience a risk of flooding and flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 22.0N  75.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 22.4N  77.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 22.8N  79.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 23.7N  80.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 25.0N  81.0W  125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\n 72H  11/1200Z 29.3N  82.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/1200Z 34.0N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n120H  13/1200Z 36.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane, the first so far into Jose,\nfound the hurricane was much stronger than previously estimated. A\nstandard 90 percent reduction of the 146-kt peak flight-level wind\nat 700 mb yields an intensity estimate of about 130 kt, which is\nthe basis for the initial intensity. In the short term, Jose is in a\nfairly favorable environment. Although the SHIPS-diagnosed shear is\nnear 20 kt, the hurricane is small enough that it has thus far\nremained sheltered from the upper-level outflow of Hurricane Irma to\nthe west.  Internal dynamics will therefore most likely be the\ndriving factor of Jose's intensity for the next day or so.  After\nthat time, all of the intensity guidance forecasts weakening,\nperhaps assuming that eventually the shear will begin to affect the\nhurricane.  Due to the very high initial intensity of Jose, the\nintensity forecast is quite a bit higher than the model consensus,\neven after adjusting for the initial intensity. However, the NHC\nforecast still follows the model trend of steady weakening beyond 24\nhours.\n\nThe aircraft data also indicated that the center of Jose is a\nlittle farther south than previously estimated.  Because of that,\nthe NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly south and west of\nthe previous one.  Otherwise, there is no significant change to\nthe track forecast, and Jose is still expected to turn northwest\nbefore reaching the Leeward Islands on Saturday, as the subtropical\nridge begins to retreat eastward.  There is fairly good agreement\nbetween the global models for the first 48 h.  After that, it is\nstill unclear if Jose will begin to move east with an approaching\nmid-latitude mid-level trough, or if it will remain trapped in\nlight steering flow.  As a course of least regret, my forecast\nsplits the difference between these scenarios and shows a slow\nnortheastward motion at day 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 16.3N  57.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.8N  59.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 17.7N  61.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 19.0N  62.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 20.6N  65.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 24.2N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 26.4N  68.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  13/1200Z 28.0N  67.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nInfrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite data indicate\nimproved banding over the western portion of the circulation with\nvisible pictures showing the formation of a ragged eye. Subjective\nDvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB both\nsupported 80 kt winds earlier, and aircraft data suggested that\nKatia has continued to intensify, so the initial intensity has been\nincreased to 85 knots.  Further strengthening is possible, and Katia\ncould be approaching major hurricane intensity prior to landfall\nSaturday morning.  After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and\nKatia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra\nMadre mountains after the 48 hour period.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 240/4 kt.  A continued slow\nwest-southwestward motion under the influence of a mid-latitude high\nextending east from Texas is forecast until the cyclone makes\nlandfall and quickly dissipates. The official track forecast has\nchanged little from the previous one, and remains roughly in the\nmiddle of the guidance.\n\nIn addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains\nassociated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These\nrains are likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 21.0N  95.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 20.6N  96.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 19.7N  97.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  10/0000Z 19.1N  98.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Bann/Carbin\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":39,"Date":"2017-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nLatest data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago\nindicate that Irma's intensity continues to fluctuate, and the\nwinds are estimated at 135 kt. The last minimum central pressure\nwas 925 mb. Another reconnaissance plane will check Irma soon.\n\nThe environment is favorable for Irma to maintain its category 4\nstatus, and only unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles could\nresult in intensity fluctuations during the next 48 hours. The\ninteraction of the hurricane's circulation with Cuba will probably\nnot result in any relevant change in intensity. In summary, the NHC\nforecast brings Irma near south Florida as a category 4 hurricane.\nAfter landfall, interaction with land and an increase in wind shear\nshould induce gradual weakening.\n\nSatellite images and radar fixes from Cuba indicate that Irma has\nslowed down and is now moving toward the west or 280 degrees at\nabout 10 kt. The hurricane should continue on this track for the\nnext 12 hours to 24 hours, and this track will bring the core of\nIrma very close to the north coast of Cuba. After that time, Irma\nshould reach the southwestern edge of the subtropical high and begin\nto move toward the northwest and north-northwest toward the Florida\npeninsula. The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and\nthat is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact\ntrack of the center. This afternoon's NHC forecast was again\nadjusted a little bit westward following the trend of the ECMWF\nmodel and both the HFIP corrected consensus and the FSU\nSuperensemble. In fact, these 3 aids continued to be tightly packed.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast\nof Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.\n\n2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely\ndangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind\nimpacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the\ncenter.\n\n3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in\nsouthern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next 36 hours,\nwhere a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of significant\nstorm surge flooding along the southwest coast of Florida has\nincreased, and 8 to 12 feet of inundation above ground level is\npossible in this area.  This is a life-threatening situation.\nEveryone in these areas should take all actions to protect life and\nproperty from rising water and follow evacuation instructions from\nlocal officials.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of\n20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida\npeninsula through Tuesday night.  The highest amounts are expected\nover the eastern Florida peninsula and upper Florida Keys.  Irma\nwill likely bring periods of heavy rain to much of Georgia, South\nCarolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some\nmountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  All areas\nseeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding\nand flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 22.1N  76.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 22.4N  78.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 23.0N  79.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 24.1N  81.0W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 25.7N  81.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 30.6N  83.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  12/1800Z 35.0N  85.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  13/1800Z 35.6N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nJose's satellite presentation continues to impress.  A nearly\nperfectly symmetric CDO surrounds a clear eye, and there is still\nno sign of weakening due to shear associated with the outflow of\nHurricane Irma.  Since the earlier reconnaissance flight, Dvorak\nintensity estimates have actually increased, however they are still\nlower than what the plane found.  The initial intensity has been\nheld at 130 kt, out of respect of the earlier in-situ observations,\nbut given the current cloud pattern, this could be conservative.\nAnother reconnaissance flight this evening will give a better\nestimate of the intensity.\n\nInternal dynamics are still expected to be the primary factor in\nthe intensity for the next 12 hours or so.  After that, all of the\nintensity guidance continues to show weakening throughout the\nforecast, though it is worth noting that Jose has already exceeded\nall previous forecasts.  The NHC forecast continues to follow the\ntrend of the models, but is a little above the consensus for most\nof the forecast period.  Given the small size of the inner-core of\nJose, if the shear does finally increase, weakening could occur at a\nfaster rate than indicated.\n\nThe global models have come into very good agreement on the track\nof Jose for the next 2 days, and there is finally a high degree of\nconfidence in that part of the forecast.  The eye of Jose should\nturn toward the northwest tonight and pass just east of Barbuda on\nSaturday. Beyond 48 h, the extent to which an approaching mid-level\ntrough will cause the hurricane to turn toward the north, and\neventually toward the east still varies from model to model, however\nthe model spread has decreased.  Both the GFS and ECMWF show Jose\nbeing left behind by the trough at some point and trapped in light\nsteering flow.  The forecast continues to split these two models,\nand is very close to the previous official forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 16.6N  58.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 17.3N  60.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 18.4N  61.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 19.9N  64.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 21.7N  66.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 24.9N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 27.0N  68.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  13/1800Z 28.0N  66.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n400 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nSatellite imagery continues to show Katia becoming better organized\nwith the formation of a small, cloud-filled eye this afternoon.\nThe initial wind speed has been increased to 90 knots based on the\nsubjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.  Another\nreconnaissance plane is expected to arrive in a few hours to check\non the winds of Katia.\n\nAdditional strengthening is possible prior to landfall, and Katia\ncould still become a major hurricane, but there is only about 6\nhours left for this to occur. After landfall, rapid weakening is\nexpected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain\nof the Sierra Madre mountains between 24 and 36 hours.\n\nKatia has moved westward during the day, but a longer-term motion is\nstill west-southwestward at 6 kt.  The official track forecast was\nshifted to the north near landfall due to the more westerly track\nthis afternoon. The new forecast then resumes a more southwesterly\ntrack based on northerly mid/upper-level flow seen on infrared\nimagery ahead of the storm and model guidance.\n\nIn addition to a dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds,\nvery heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect\neastern Mexico. These rains will likely cause life-threatening flash\nfloods and mudslides.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 21.0N  96.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 20.8N  97.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  09/1800Z 20.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Bann/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":40,"Date":"2017-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight has found that Irma has\nre-intensified to category 5 strength.  The plane measured a\nmaximum flight-level wind of 154 kt and SFMR winds of 140-145 kt in\nthe northwestern eyewall, so the initial intensity is raised to 140\nkt.  The hurricane is producing very deep convection in all\nquadrants around the eye, which the Air Force flight measured to be\n35 n mi wide.\n\nApparently the ridge to the north of Irma has been stronger than\nexpected, and the initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.\nThe track guidance continues to insist on Irma turning\nwest-northwestward soon, moving along the Cuban Keys adjacent to\nthe north coast of Cuba during the next 24 hours.  After that time,\nIrma is expected to turn sharply north-northwestward and accelerate\nafter 48 hours, moving parallel to the west coast of Florida and\nthen into Georgia.  Mainly because Irma's eye has not deviated from\nits westward motion, the new NHC forecast track has again shifted\nslightly westward.  Because of the hurricane's angle of approach to\nthe west coast of Florida, it is extremely difficult to pinpoint\nexactly where the center might move onshore.\n\nIf the eye continues to move over the Cuban Keys and does not move\ninland over the main island of Cuba, then Irma would likely not\nlose much intensity during the next day or so.  As we've stated\nmany times, fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 36\nhours due to possible and unpredictable eyewall replacement cycles.\nAfter 36 hours, there are some indications that vertical shear may\nincrease over the hurricane, and a little more weakening is\nanticipated at that time.  Because of the concerns in the track\nforecast noted above, Irma would be able to maintain a strong\nintensity for a longer period of time if the center stays off the\nwest Florida coast.  Regardless, Irma is still expected to be a\ndangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and the west\ncoast of Florida through 48 hours.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast\nof Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through Saturday.\n\n2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely\ndangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind\nimpacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the\ncenter.\n\n3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in\nportions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida\nKeys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in\neffect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the\nsouthwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of\ninundation above ground level is possible in this area.  This is a\nlife-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all\nactions to protect life and property from rising water and follow\nevacuation instructions from local officials.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of\n20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida\npeninsula through Tuesday night.  Irma will likely bring periods of\nheavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South\nCarolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some\nmountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  All areas\nseeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding\nand flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 22.1N  77.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 22.6N  79.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 23.3N  80.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 24.5N  81.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 26.5N  81.9W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/0000Z 31.6N  83.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  13/0000Z 35.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  14/0000Z 35.5N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017\n\nThe Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this\nevening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than\npreviously estimated.  An average of the aircraft's flight level\nwinds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135\nkt, making Jose very near category 5 strength.  It is surprising\nthat Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the\nhurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the\nlast several hours.\n\nJose is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A west-northwest to\nnorthwest motion is expected overnight and on Saturday, taking the\ncore of Jose just east of the northern Leeward Islands.  The\nhurricane is forecast to slow down and turn northward in 3 to 4 days\nwhen it moves around the ridge and toward a large mid- to\nupper-level low over the north Atlantic.  The models then indicate\nthat the upper low will bypass Jose causing it to drift eastward or\nmeander at the end of the forecast period.  The track forecast is\nfairly close to the previous advisory and lies nearest to the\nvarious consensus models.\n\nFluctuations in strength are likely overnight and on Saturday due to\nthe potential for eyewall replacement cycles, but Jose is expected\nto remain at category 4 strength when it is closest to the northern\nLeeward Islands.  After that time, the models insist that a slow\nweakening trend should occur through the remainder of the forecast\nperiod due to an increase in wind shear and drier air.  The NHC\nintensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the\nshort term, but then falls in line with the HCCA and ICON consensus\nmodels from 48 to 120 h.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.9N  59.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 17.8N  60.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 19.1N  62.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 22.4N  66.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 25.3N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 26.8N  68.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  14/0000Z 27.7N  66.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Katia Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017\n\n\nSatellite imagery shows Katia has become much less organized over\nthe past several hours with a shrinking area of warming cloud tops.\nThe weakening of Katia could be due to drier air wrapping around the\ncyclone's western side, which was noted in satellite-based layered\nprecipitable water products.  Reconnaissance aircraft has reported\na significant northeast tilt of the circulation with height, a\nsign of southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The initial wind speed\nhas been decreased to 65 knots based on a blend of subjective Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB and is close to SFMR wind observations\nfrom Air Force reconnasissance aircraft currently sampling the\nstorm.\n\nKatia is currently making landfall north of Tecolutla, Mexico.\nRapid weakening is expected from here on out, and Katia is forecast\nto dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains\non Saturday.  Katia has made a turn to the west-southwest at 6 kt.\nThe official track forecast remains consistent with the previous\nadvisory. The weakening hurricane is expected to continue moving\nwest-southwest until dissipation.\n\nVery heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect\neastern Mexico.  These rains will likely cause life-threatening\nflash floods and mudslides.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 20.6N  97.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 20.2N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  10/0000Z 19.7N  98.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roth/Lamers\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":41,"Date":"2017-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nThe eye of Irma has been moving over the islands along the north\ncoast of Cuba, and satellite imagery along with preliminary\ndata from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates\nthat the hurricane has weakened.  The initial intensity is reduced\nto 135 kt, and this may be generous.\n\nThe initial motion is now 285/10.  Irma is moving along the\nsouthwestern side of the subtropical ridge, which is about to\nweaken due to a mid- to upper-level trough moving into the\nsoutheastern United States.  The track guidance is in good\nagreement that Irma should continue west-northwestward for the next\n12-24 h, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest that would\ntake the center parallel to the west coast of the Florida\npeninsula.  Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should turn\nnorthwestward and eventually stall as it interacts with the\naforementioned trough.  The track guidance has changed only\nslightly since the previous advisory.  Thus the new forecast track\nfollows the previous forecast in calling for Irma to move along the\ncoast of Cuba, then over the Lower Florida Keys, and then over and\nnear the Florida West coast.  It should be noted that because of the\nhurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida, it is\nextremely difficult to pinpoint exactly where the center might move\nonshore.\n\nThere is an opportunity for Irma to re-intensity as it crosses the\nwarm waters of the Florida Straits.  However, the large-scale\nmodels forecast significant westerly shear developing at about\n24 h, and it is unclear how much strengthening could occur before\nthen.  The first part of the intensity forecast thus calls for\nlittle change in strength through 36 h, and Irma is still expected\nto be a dangerous hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys and\nthe west coast of Florida.  After that time, movement over land and\nstrong shear should cause steady weakening, with Irma eventually\ndecaying to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast\nof Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight.\n\n2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely\ndangerous major hurricane, and will bring life-threatening wind\nimpacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the\ncenter.\n\n3. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation in\nportions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida\nKeys, during the next 36 hours, where a Storm Surge Warning is in\neffect. The threat of significant storm surge flooding along the\nsouthwest coast of Florida has increased, and 8 to 12 feet of\ninundation above ground level is possible in this area.  This is a\nlife-threatening situation. Everyone in these areas should take all\nactions to protect life and property from rising water and follow\nevacuation instructions from local officials.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 8 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of\n20 inches are expected over the Florida Keys and much of the Florida\npeninsula through Tuesday night.  Irma will likely bring periods of\nheavy rain to much of the Florida Panhandle, Georgia, South\nCarolina, and western North Carolina early next week, including some\nmountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  All areas\nseeing heavy rainfall from Irma will experience a risk of flooding\nand flash flooding.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 22.5N  78.8W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 22.9N  80.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 23.8N  81.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 25.4N  81.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 27.7N  82.4W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/0600Z 32.5N  84.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 96H  13/0600Z 35.5N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n120H  14/0600Z 36.0N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nThere has been some weakening of the inner core this morning,\nspecifically, considerable warming of the cloud tops and partial\nerosion of the western portion of the eyewall.  Indications\nfrom earlier microwave passes and radar imagery from the Leeward\nIsland of Guadeloupe reveal the possibility of an ongoing eyewall\nreplacement cycle (ERC). Subsequently, the initial intensity is\ngenerously lowered to 130 kt for this advisory.  An aircraft\nreconnaissance mission later this morning will provide a more\naccurate measure of Jose's intensity.\n\nWhether or not Jose completes the ERC cycle during the next several\nhours is uncertain.  Regardless of the inner core structural\ntransition, Jose is still forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as\nit closely approaches the northern Leeward Islands today.\nStatistical and dynamical intensity guidance show gradual weakening\nof the cyclone through day 5 as a result of increasing northerly\nshear and drier, more stable mid-tropospheric air associated with an\napproaching mid-latitude trough to the northwest of the cyclone.\nThe official forecast is above all of the available guidance through\n24 hours, then corresponds to the IVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11\nkt.  The eye of Jose is expected to turn northwestward and pass\njust east of the northern Leeward Islands later today.  Jose should\nslow down and turn north-northwestward in 72 hours in response to\nthe aforementioned deep-layer mid-level trough.  Large-scale\nmodels have come in alignment with the trough leaving Jose behind to\nmeander in weaker mid-level westerly flow through day 5.  The NHC\nforecast is basically an update of the previous package and is based\non a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus model and the ECMWF.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 17.5N  60.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 18.4N  61.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 19.9N  63.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 21.5N  65.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 23.1N  67.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 25.7N  69.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 26.5N  67.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  14/0600Z 26.4N  66.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Katia Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n400 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nConvection has substantially diminished with Katia, with satellite\nimagery showing a significantly degraded structure. In fact, it\nseems that the low-level circulation may be decoupled from the\nlow center aloft now, as a distinct circulation in diminishing\ncolder cloud tops moved more quickly off to the southwest. There was\nalready evidence of this occurring from the recon flight earlier\ntonight. The initial position was determined via the circulation in\nwarmer clouds in the lower troposphere on IR satellite. Katia is\nvery close to the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Mountains, and\nthus the forecast shows very little movement this morning as the\nincreasingly shallow circulation would be less likely to propagate\nwest through the mountainous areas.\n\nThe initial intensity is set at 35 knots out of respect for the\nhurricane strength Dvorak fixes only nine hours ago, and the extent\nof tropical storm force winds sampled by the recon plane shortly\nthereafter, although this could be generous. The most likely\nlocation of tropical storm force winds would be away from the center\nand over the water or near the coast in the eastern semicircle of\nKatia's circulation. The wind field should continue to weaken this\nmorning, and we show a dissipation of Katia by 18Z today.\n\nAlthough convection has generally diminished as of 09Z, lingering\nelevated levels of atmospheric moisture associated with Katia could\ncontinue to produce heavy rains in the region, which could lead to\nflash floods and mudslides even after Katia dissipates.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 20.3N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 20.2N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Lamers/Roth\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":42,"Date":"2017-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nThe interaction of Irma's circulation with Cuba has resulted in\nsome weakening of the hurricane.  Data from an Air Force plane\nindicate that the maximum winds are now 110 kt.  However, once the\ncirculation moves away from Cuba, restrengthening is forecast and\nIrma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane for the next 2\ndays while moving very near the Florida peninsula.\n\nThe eye has been moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 8\nkt.  The hurricane is about the reach the southwestern portion of\nthe subtropical high, and the expected  turn to the northwest and\nnorth-northwest should begin soon.  The track guidance is tightly\npacked and takes the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or\nover the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of\nthe guidance envelope and given the good agreement among models, the\nconfidence in the track forecast is high.\n\nIrma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly updates\nwill begin at 1600 UTC.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast\nof Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight.\n\n2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely\ndangerous major hurricane, bringing life-threatening wind\nimpacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the\ncenter. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward\nalong the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where a Hurricane\nWatch has been issued.\n\n3. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge\nflooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the\nFlorida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat\nof catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest\ncoast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground\nlevel is expected. This is a life-threatening situation and everyone\nin these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions\nfrom local officials.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts\nof between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the\nFlorida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through\nMonday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early\nnext week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the\nsoutheast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is\nforecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South\nCarolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some\nmountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  Residents\nthroughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood\nthreat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 22.8N  79.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 23.4N  80.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 24.5N  81.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 26.4N  82.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 29.0N  82.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 34.5N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  13/1200Z 36.0N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  14/1200Z 37.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nJose continues to exhibit a well-defined eye in visible and infrared\nsatellite imagery, and U.S. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance\naircraft measurements suggest that this eye has become slightly\nmore asymmetric.  The eye is evident on the Meteo France\nradar and it is beginning to pass just north of the northernmost\nLeeward Islands. The aircraft data indicate that Jose remains a\ncategory 4 hurricane, and reconnaissance aircraft has reported SFMR\nand flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 125 kt\nfor this advisory. The latest minimum pressure reported by the plane\nis 945 mb.\n\nVisible and infrared satellite imagery indicate northeastward\nelongation of the cirrus canopy accompanying Jose, suggesting the\nsouthwesterly shear over the system is beginning to increase.\nThe interaction between Jose and shear accompanying the\naforementioned trough will likely result in a weakening trend\nthrough the weekend. The official intensity forecast has trended\nslightly lower, consistent with the latest IVCN and HCCA output.\nOnce the deep shear superimposing Jose weakens with the\ndeparture of the mid-latitude trough, Jose's weakening is expected\nslow by early next week.\n\nDuring the next couple of days, Jose is expected to turn more\nnorth of west while being steered around the western periphery of a\nmid-level ridge. The latest official track forecast reflects a\nslight increase in forward motion over the next couple of days.\nBy early next week, the flow around the trough will result in a\nnorthward, then eastward turn around 26N.  Thereafter, Jose forward\nmotion should slow down as it is left within an area of weak\nsteering current behind the trough. The latest track of Jose has\nbeen shifted southward after 72 h to be more consistent with the\nlatest ECMWF and TVCN guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 18.3N  61.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 19.4N  62.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 20.9N  64.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 22.6N  66.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 24.1N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 26.0N  68.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  13/1200Z 26.0N  67.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  14/1200Z 25.7N  66.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cohen/Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Katia","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL132017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Katia Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nIt is nearly impossible to find a low level circulation center from\nKatia. Satellite imagery showed the mid-level center separated from\nthe low level center overnight, and the remaining deep convection\nhas all but dissipated leaving behind layered low and mid level\nclouds. Without evidence to suggest otherwise, the final advisory\nposition is mainly an extrapolation of the previous position. There\nwill still be a threat for heavy rain, flash floods, and mudslides\nover the mountainous terrain from the trough. Seas associated with\nremnants of Katia will continue to subside along the coast of Mexico\nnear the landfall point today.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 20.0N  97.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster R Ballard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":43,"Date":"2017-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  43...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nCorrected day of week to Sunday in first Key Message\n\nData from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane sampling Irma indicate\nthat the hurricane has not recovered yet from its interaction\nwith Cuba. It is estimated that the maximum winds are 110 kt. Given\nthe excellent satellite presentation, the lower pressure just\nreported by the NOAA plane, and the fact that the hurricane will\nmove over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida, some\nintensification is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Irma is\nexpected to remain a very dangerous hurricane while it moves near or\nover the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. After\n48 hours, Irma will be moving farther inland and weakening.\n\nRadar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest\nat about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is\nabout to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of\nthe subtropical ridge.  The track guidance continues to be tightly\npacked, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over the\nFlorida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC\nforecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given the\ngood agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is\nhigh.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to\nthe Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous\nmajor hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in southwest\nFlorida should be completed within the next few hours, as\ntropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin tonight.\n\n2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge\nflooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the\nFlorida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat\nof catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest\ncoast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground\nlevel is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and\neveryone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation\ninstructions from local officials.\n\n3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida\nregardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma\nare also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia\nand portions of South Carolina and Alabama.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts\nof between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the\nFlorida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through\nMonday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early\nnext week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the\nsoutheast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is\nforecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South\nCarolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some\nmountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  Residents\nthroughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood\nthreat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 23.4N  80.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 24.1N  81.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 25.7N  82.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 28.3N  82.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 31.2N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  12/1800Z 35.5N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  13/1800Z 36.1N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila/Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nJose continues to be an impressive hurricane. Satellite\nintensity estimates have been gradually increasing, with TAFB and\nSAB coming in at 5.5, ADT at 5.8, and 6.0 from CPHC. Indeed, the\nsatellite presentation has been slowly improving over the last\nseveral hours as the CDO becomes more symmetric once again, the eye\nhas warmed and become more distinct, and outflow has improved\nsomewhat in the southwest quadrant. In deference to the earlier\nAir Force Reserve reconnaissance mission which found winds higher\nthan the earlier satellite estimates, the initial intensity is kept\nat 125 kt, but this could be a bit conservative. Another aircraft\nwill be in to sample the wind field around 00z.\n\nThe initial motion continues to be a fairly steady 310/12. Jose\nis pushing northwestward around a mid- and upper-level high located\nto the northeast. This general motion is expected to continue for\nthe next couple of days as the high spreads southward. After\n48 hours, the models are in good agreement showing Jose slowing to\na crawl and executing a slow loop well to the east of the Bahamas.\nThe much slower forward motion will occur as Jose becomes embedded\nwithin a large mid-level anticyclone and steering currents\ndiminish. The guidance has shifted this loop slightly to the south\nand west for this cycle and the official forecast has been adjusted\nto be in better alignment with the model consensus.\n\nThe intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Although the models\ninsist that southwesterly shear will increase over Jose through the\nnext 36 hours, the UW-CIMSS analysis shows that Jose is under a\nnarrow zone of weak shear that appears to be moving westward in\ntandem with the hurricane. This should allow Jose to maintain its\nintensity in the short term, with gradual weakening expected\nthereafter. The official forecast is not as aggressive with\nweakening as the previous forecast package.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 19.2N  62.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 20.4N  64.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 22.0N  66.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 23.7N  67.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 25.0N  69.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 26.3N  69.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  13/1800Z 26.1N  67.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  14/1800Z 25.0N  67.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster R Ballard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":44,"Date":"2017-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  44\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nIrma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears\nto have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity.  An\nearlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force\nreconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near\n105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt.  The planes have reported\na double eyewall structure, which has also been observed in WSR-88D\nDoppler radar data from Miami and Key West.  Irma's intensity has\nbeen conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower\nthe winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air\nForce mission.\n\nIrma has stuttered near the north coast of Cuba for the past few\nhours, which may be a harbinger of the north-northwestward turn\nthat we've been waiting for.  In any event, Irma appears to be\nmoving very slowly toward the northwest, or 305/5 kt, very gradually\nshifting away from the north coast of Cuba.  With the hurricane\nlocated near a break in the subtropical ridge, it should turn\nnorth-northwestward soon and accelerate near or along the west\ncoast of Florida during the next 36-48 hours.  Because of Irma's\nhesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted\never so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little\nleft of the previous one.  Although it is likely that the eye will\nmove near or over the Lower Keys Sunday morning, the hurricane's\nangle of approach to the west coast of Florida makes it very\ndifficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf\ncoast.\n\nIf an eyewall replacement occurs within the next 6-12 hours, Irma\nhas an opportunity to restrengthen a bit while it moves across the\nStraits of Florida.  After that time, however, southwesterly shear\nis expected to increase to 25-30 kt in about 24 hours and then\ncontinue increasing through 48 hours.  This shear, in addition to\nIrma's core interacting with Florida, is likely to cause a\nweakening trend after 24 hours.  The new intensity guidance calls\nfor an adjustment from the previous forecast, although it\nconservatively lies near the upper bound of the reliable models.\nIrma is still expected to approach the Florida Keys and Florida\nwest coast as a major hurricane, and combined with its large size,\nwill produce significant storm surge flooding in those areas.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to\nthe Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous\nmajor hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in the Florida\nKeys and southwest Florida should be complete since tropical-storm-\nforce winds are already affecting portions of the coast.\n\n2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge\nflooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the\nFlorida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat\nof catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest\ncoast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground\nlevel is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and\neveryone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation\ninstructions from local officials.\n\n3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida\nregardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma\nare also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia\nand portions of South Carolina and Alabama.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts\nof between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the\nFlorida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through\nMonday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early\nnext week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the\nsoutheast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is\nforecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South\nCarolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some\nmountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  Residents\nthroughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood\nthreat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 23.5N  81.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 24.7N  81.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 26.8N  82.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 29.5N  83.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...ON THE COAST\n 48H  12/0000Z 32.2N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  13/0000Z 35.3N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  14/0000Z 37.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017\n\nJose continues to have an impressive satellite signature, with a\nnearly clear 15 to 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of deep\nconvection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just finished a\nmission through Jose, with maximum flight-level winds of 122 kt and\nmaximum SFMR winds of 109 kt. Based on this data, the initial\nintensity for this advisory is estimated to be 115 kt.\n\nThe initial motion remains a steady 310/12 kt, with Jose's motion\nthrough the first 36 hours being driven by a deep-layer ridge\nlocated to the north of the cyclone. As the ridge shifts to the\neast of the system on day 2, a turn toward the north is expected,\nwith a decrease in the forward motion. By day 3, the steering\ncurrents are expected to become quite weak, with Jose moving\nnorth of the mid-level ridge, while a deep-layer low passes well to\nthe northeast. This will induce a short-lived motion to the east,\nbut as the ridge rebuilds west and then north of Jose, a gradual\nwestward turn of the cyclone is expected. The 5-day forecast\ndepicts Jose completing a relatively small anticyclonic loop over\nthe open Atlantic. The updated forecast is close to the previous\none, and closely follows the consensus guidance and operational\nECMWF/GFS/UKMET.\n\nThe shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, and thus\nlittle change in short-term intensity is expected. Although water\ntemperatures will be sufficiently warm to support an intense\ncyclone, moderate shear - of varying directions - is expected to\nlead to gradual weakening over the next couple of days as Jose\nmeanders over the open Atlantic. The updated intensity forecast is\nclose to the previous prediction, but is stronger than the SHIPS\nmodel, due to the IVCN/ECMWF models maintaining a more intense\nsystem.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 19.8N  63.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 21.1N  65.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 22.8N  67.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 25.5N  69.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 26.3N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  14/0000Z 25.2N  67.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  15/0000Z 24.5N  69.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Birchard/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":45,"Date":"2017-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017\n\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb\nflight-level winds of 128 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along with\nsurface wind estimates of 110-115 kt from the Stepped Frequency\nMicrowave Radiometer.  In addition, the aircraft data shows that the\ncentral pressure has fallen to 928 mb.  Based on these data, the\ninitial intensity has been increased to 115 kt, again making Irma a\nCategory 4 hurricane.\n\nIrma has made its long-awaited turn, with the initial motion now\n325/7.  For the next 36-48 h, the cyclone will be steered generally\nnorth-northwestward with an increase in forward speed between a low-\nto mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-\nto upper-level low over the Gulf Coast states and the northern Gulf\nof Mexico.  After that, the system should turn northwestward and\nthen move somewhat erratically near the end of its life as it merges\nwith the low.  The tightly-clustered track guidance has changed\nlittle since the last advisory, and the new NHC forecast is very\nclose to the previous one.  The eye should move across the Lower\nFlorida Keys in the next few hours. After that, the hurricane's\ntrack almost parallel to the west coast of Florida makes it very\ndifficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf\ncoast.\n\nGiven current trends, some additional strengthening could occur\nduring the next several hours.  However, vertical wind shear is\nincreasing over Irma, and the shear is expected to become strong\nwithin 24 h.  This, combined with land interaction, should cause at\nleast a steady weakening from 12-36 h.  The new intensity forecast\nis slightly lower than that of the previous advisory at those\ntimes, but it still calls for Irma to be a major hurricane at its\nclosest approach to the Tampa Bay area.  A faster weakening is\nlikely after Irma moves across the Florida Panhandle and starts to\nmerge with the aforementioned upper-level low, and the new forecast\nfollows the trend of the previous one in calling for the system to\ndecay to a remnant low by 72 h and to dissipate completely by 120 h.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to\nthe Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous\nmajor hurricane today, and these conditions will spread into central\nand northwestern Florida tonight and Monday.  Preparations in the\nFlorida Keys and southwest Florida should be complete since\nhurricane-force winds are spreading into that area.\n\n2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge\nflooding along much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida\nKeys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of\ncatastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest\ncoast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground\nlevel is expected. This is a life-threatening situation.\n\n3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida\nregardless of the exact track of the center.  Wind hazards from Irma\nare also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia\nand portions of South Carolina and Alabama.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding.\nTotal rain accumulations of 15 to 20 inches with isolated amounts of\n25 inches are expected over the Florida Keys through Sunday evening.\nThrough Monday, Irma is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 8 to\n15 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches across the Florida\npeninsula and southeast Georgia, while across the rest of Georgia,\neastern Florida Panhandle, southern and western South Carolina, and\nwestern North Carolina, a total of 3 to 6 inches with isolated\namounts of 10 inches are expected.  Significant river flooding is\npossible in these areas. Through Tuesday, Irma will also bring\nperiods of heavy rain into the Tennessee Valley, where an average of\n2 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts is forecast across\neastern Alabama and southern Tennessee. This includes some\nmountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  Residents\nthroughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood\nthreat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 24.1N  81.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 25.4N  82.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 27.8N  82.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 30.5N  84.1W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  12/0600Z 32.7N  85.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  13/0600Z 35.5N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  14/0600Z 37.5N  88.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017\n\nJose remains a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\nHurricane Wind Scale, with a 15 n mi wide eye continuing to be\nsurrounded a solid ring of deep convection. Little significant\nchange in the overall satellite appearance has been observed since a\nHurricane Hunter plane sampled the cyclone earlier in the night, and\nthe initial intensity remains unchanged at 115 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 310/14 kt, with Jose's track through the first\n24 hours being driven by a mid-level ridge located to the\nnorth-northeast of the cyclone. After this time, the steering\npattern is expected to become rather dynamic, leading to a\n5-day forecast that shows Jose making a small anticyclonic loop\nover the open waters of the western Atlantic. This occurs as the\nridge shifts to the east of Jose from 36 to 48 hours, leading to a\nreduction in forward speed, and a gradual turn toward the north. A\nturn toward the east and southeast is expected on days 3 and 4, with\nan even slower forward motion, as the ridge weakens and moves south\nof the system. Late in the forecast period, the ridge is expected to\nbuild to the northwest and then north of Jose, leading to a gradual\nacceleration toward the west, and a reduction in the shear. With\nsuch a complex steering pattern expected, it comes as no surprise\nthat the track guidance diverges significantly in the latter\nforecast periods. The updated forecast is close to the previous one,\nlies close to the FSSE, and is in between the GFS and ECMWF, which\nare more than 250 miles apart on day 5.\n\nThe shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, but\nnorth to northeasterly shear is forecast to increase in the short\nterm and remain relatively strong through 48 hours due to Jose\nmoving closer to a building ridge to its northwest. This will\nlead to a weakening trend, despite the system remaining over SSTs\nnear 29 Celsius. The official intensity forecast is nudged down ever\nso slightly from the previous one through day 3, but remains higher\nthan the SHIPS model, due to the ECMWF and GFS models maintaining a\nmore intense system. The intensity prediction on days 4 and 5\nremains unchanged due to forecast environmental uncertainties at\nthat time.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 20.8N  64.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 22.2N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 24.2N  67.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 25.6N  69.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 26.5N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 26.3N  67.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  14/0600Z 25.0N  66.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  15/0600Z 24.5N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Birchard/Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":46,"Date":"2017-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017\n\nLatest observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters had\nflight-level winds that corresponded to surface winds near 110 kt.\nThus, given sampling considerations, the 115-kt intensity is\nretained for this advisory. Irma should maintain this intensity\nuntil the center reaches the southwest Florida coast, and then begin\nto weaken while the system interacts with the landmass of the\nFlorida peninsula.  Increasing southwesterly shear associated with\nan upper-level trough should also cause weakening of the hurricane\nduring the next day or so. More rapid weakening is likely after Irma\nmoves into the southeastern United States in 24-36 hours, and the\ncyclone should weaken to a remnant low in 72 hours or sooner. The\nofficial intensity forecast is close to the simple and corrected\nconsensus models.\n\nThe center of Irma wobbled more northward over the past few hours\nand the initial motion estimate is about 350/8 kt.  Irma is embedded\nwithin a broad mid-level gyre over the Gulf of Mexico.  The cyclone\nis expected to be steered north-northwestward at a faster forward\nspeed over the next day or two on the eastern side of the gyre. This\nwill take Irma inland over northern Florida early on Monday and the\nsoutheastern United States over the next couple of days.  The track\nguidance remains fairly tightly clustered with the ECMWF track a\nlittle to the left and slower than the other models.  The official\ntrack forecast lies between the model consensus and the ECMWF\nsolution.  This is just slightly east of the previous official\nforecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in\nthe Florida Keys and southwestern Florida today and spread into\ncentral and northwestern Florida tonight and Monday.  Preparations\nin central and northwestern Florida should be rushed to completion.\n\n2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding\nalong much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys,\nwhere a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.  The threat of\ncatastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest\ncoast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground\nlevel is expected.  This is a life-threatening situation.\n\n3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida\nregardless of the exact track of the center.  Wind hazards from Irma\nare also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into\nportions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.\n\n4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding\nacross much of Florida and many other parts of the southeast United\nStates. Rainfall occurring very quickly, at 2 to 4 inches per hour,\nwill lead to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and\nrivers.  Significant river flooding is likely over the next five\ndays in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average\nrainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are\nexpected.  Significant river flooding is also possible beginning\nMonday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western\nSouth Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall\nof 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.\nMountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to\nflash flooding.  Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average\namounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Alabama and Tennessee, where\nisolated higher amounts and local flooding may occur.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 25.0N  81.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 26.6N  82.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 29.2N  83.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 31.9N  84.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  12/1200Z 33.8N  86.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  13/1200Z 36.0N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  14/1200Z 38.5N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 10 2017\n\nJose remains an impressive hurricane this morning. A 1019z SSMI\nmicrowave pass continued to show a very well defined inner core,\nbut a more recent 1132z pass showed some erosion of the CDO on the\nnorthwest side. The well defined eye seen earlier in the first light\nvisible imagery is beginning to constrict and become rather ragged.\nSatellite intensity estimates were 6.0 (115 kt) from SAB and CPHC,\nand 6.5 (127 kt) at TAFB. We have maintained an intensity of 115 kt\nfor this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion continues to be rather steady at 305/15. Jose is\nlocated to the southeast of a mid-level high, which has continued to\nsteer the tropical cyclone on this persistent northwest track.\nChanges are ahead, however. Global models agree that the mid-level\nhigh will first build southward, allowing Jose to turn more toward\nthe north in about 36 hours and causing the system to slow\nconsiderably. After 48 hours, the high will build to the west of\nJose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop between\n48 and 72 hours. After 72 hours, mid-level ridging becomes\nreestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a\nwest to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period.\nOur latest forecast is similar to the previous package, with some\nnorthward adjustment at the end of the period to be in better\nagreement with the TVCN consensus model.\n\nThe UW-CIMSS wind shear analysis and satellite derived high level\nwind fields indicate that Jose is reaching the western end of a\nnarrow zone of weak shear. Although Jose will remain over SSTs over\n29C throughout the forecast period, increasing northerly shear\nshould induce a weakening trend through the next 72 hours. Global\nmodels show the shear relaxing beyond 72 hours, which may be enough\nto allow Jose to reintensify. The IVCN shows a bit more dramatic\nweakening, followed by reintensification. Although this is\nplausible, the official forecast shows a more modest weakening and\nintensification than the IVCN in deference to the uncertainty.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 21.7N  65.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 23.1N  67.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 24.9N  68.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 26.1N  69.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 26.4N  68.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  13/1200Z 25.4N  67.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  14/1200Z 24.2N  68.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  15/1200Z 24.8N  71.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster R Ballard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":47,"Date":"2017-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017\n\nIrma made landfall a couple of hours ago near Marco Island,\nFlorida with an estimated intensity of 100 kt.  The eye just\npassed over Naples, and assuming some decay over land, the current\nintensity estimate is 95 kt.  The interaction with the Florida\nPeninsula along with strong southwesterly shear should cause\nsignificant weakening, but Irma's large and powerful circulation\nwill likely maintain hurricane strength until Monday morning at the\nearliest.  Irma should be well inland and weaken to a remnant low in\n72 hours.  The official intensity forecast is above the model\nconsensus.\n\nCenter fixes indicate a slightly west of due northward motion at\nabout 350/12 kt.  Global models indicate that Irma is embedded\nwithin a broader cyclonic mid-level gyre.  The cyclone is expected\nto be steered around the eastern side of this gyre over the next few\ndays.  This will take the system inland over the southeastern\nUnited states within a day or so.  The track guidance remains in\ngood agreement, and the official forecast is close to the model\nconsensus with a slight lean toward the ECMWF solution.  This is\nvery close to the previous NHC track.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Life-threatening wind and storm surge from Irma will continue in\nthe Florida Keys and southwestern Florida and spread into central\nand northwestern Florida tonight and Monday.\n\n2. There is imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding\nalong much of the Florida west coast, including the Florida Keys,\nwhere a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.  The threat of\ncatastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest\ncoast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground\nlevel is expected.  This is a life-threatening situation.\n\n3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida\nregardless of the exact track of the center.  Wind hazards from Irma\nare also expected to spread northward through Georgia and into\nportions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North Carolina.\n\n4. Irma is producing very heavy rain and inland flooding across much\nof Florida, which will quickly spread to the rest of the southeast\nUnited States.  Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour is\nleading to flash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and\nrivers.  Significant river flooding is likely over the next five\ndays in the Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia, where average\nrainfall of 8 to 15 inches and isolated 20 inch amounts are\nexpected.  Significant river flooding is also possible beginning\nMonday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central Georgia, western\nSouth Carolina, and western North Carolina, where average rainfall\nof 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are expected.\nMountainous parts of these states will be especially vulnerable to\nflash flooding.  Farther west, Irma is expected to produce average\namounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama and\nTennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may\noccur.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 26.2N  81.8W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  11/0600Z 28.0N  82.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  11/1800Z 30.7N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  12/0600Z 33.1N  86.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  12/1800Z 34.5N  88.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  13/1800Z 36.5N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  14/1800Z 39.0N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017\n\nThe eye of Jose has become cloud filled and indistinct in the\nvisible satellite imagery and is no longer discernible in the\ninfrared imagery. A 1536Z GPM pass showed the eye and inner core\nwere degrading. Not surprisingly, current satellite intensity\nestimates have trended down, with ADT carrying 5.3, CPHC and SAB\nat 5.5, and TAFB at 6.0. The initial intensity has been lowered to\n105 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/15. Global models show that\nthe mid level high which has been responsible for the persistent\nnorthwest track will gradually build southward over the next 36\nhours, causing the system to slow down on Monday and begin turning\nmore toward the north. After 48 hours, the high will build to the\nwest of Jose, forcing the hurricane into a slow anticyclonic loop\nbetween 48 and 96 hours. After 96 hours, mid-level ridging becomes\nreestablished north of Jose, causing the system to resume more of a\nwest to west-northwest track through the end of the forecast period.\nOne minor adjustment is that the models suggest this loop may occur\na little slower than previously indicated, and the forecast\nreflects this change which is closer to the models.\n\nJose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, having\noutrun the narrow zone of weaker shear it was under previously.\nThis shear will increase further over the next 12 to 24 hours and\nadditional weakening appears likely through the next few days\ndespite SSTs over 29C over the entire forecast track. During the\nlatter part of the forecast period, the shear may relax enough to\nallow for some reintensification, but the confidence in this is\nsomewhat low.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 22.8N  66.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 24.4N  68.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 26.0N  69.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 26.8N  69.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  12/1800Z 26.7N  68.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  13/1800Z 25.4N  67.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  14/1800Z 24.2N  68.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  15/1800Z 25.1N  71.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster R Ballard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":48,"Date":"2017-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017\n\nIrma's center has moved northward across the western Florida\npeninsula since it made landfall earlier this afternoon, and it is\nnow located over west-central Florida.  NOAA WSR-88D radar data from\nTampa Bay are showing 95-100 kt winds at an elevation of about 3500\nft, so the hurricane's intensity is estimated to be 85 kt. Irma\ncontinues to have a large wind field, and exceptional hurricane-\nforce wind gusts are still occurring well to the east of the center\nalong the Florida east coast.\n\nIrma appears to be making some progress to the west of due north,\nand the longer-term initial motion is 350/12 kt.  The cyclone is\nexpected to swing around the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance\ncurrently located along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which should impart a\nnorth-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next 48\nhours.  Due to its recent more inland push, Irma's center is now\nforecast to remain over Florida and then move over the southeastern\nUnited States for the duration of its existence.  Due to continued\nland interaction and strong shear of over 30 kt, Irma should\ncontinue to lose strength and fall below hurricane intensity\non Monday.  The cyclone is then expected to become a remnant low\nover western Tennessee by day 3 and dissipate by day 4.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding\nalong much of the Florida coast, including the Florida Keys, and\nportions of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, where a Storm\nSurge Warning remains in effect.\n\n2. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind impacts to much\nof Florida, with hurricane-force winds near the center.  Also,\nIrma is a large hurricane, and hurricane-force wind gusts and\nsustained tropical-storm force winds extend far from the center.\nWind hazards from Irma will also spread northward through Georgia\nand into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, and North\nCarolina.\n\n3. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding\nacross much of Florida, and these rains will spread into the rest\nof the southeast United States. Intense rainfall rates of 2 to 4\ninches per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on\ncreeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely\nover the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern\nGeorgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches and\nisolated 20 inch amounts are expected. Significant river flooding is\npossible beginning Monday and Tuesday in much of eastern and central\nGeorgia, western South Carolina, and western North Carolina, where\naverage rainfall of 3 to 8 inches and isolated 12 inch amounts are\nexpected. The southern Appalachian Mountains will be especially\nvulnerable to flash flooding. Irma is also expected to produce\naverage amounts of 2 to 5 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama\nand Tennessee, where isolated higher amounts and local flooding may\noccur.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 27.5N  81.9W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  11/1200Z 29.4N  82.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  12/0000Z 31.9N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  12/1200Z 33.9N  86.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  13/0000Z 35.0N  88.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 72H  14/0000Z 37.5N  87.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 10 2017\n\n\nThe eye of Hurricane Jose has been absent in satellite imagery since\nearlier today as increasing high-level northerly shear has weakened\nthe cyclone. This shear is evident in the latest infrared imagery,\nwith cold cloud tops streaming southward from the center. The\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 100 kt with this advisory,\nbased on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak satellite\nintensity estimates.\n\nThe initial motion for this advisory is 325/12 kt, with Jose\nexpected to move toward the north on Monday as a mid-level ridge\ncentered to the east erodes. As Jose moves north of this ridge in 36\nhours or so, a complex and dynamic steering pattern is expected to\nresult in Jose completing a clockwise loop over the western Atlantic\nthrough the 5-day forecast period. Despite the complexity, this\nsolution is shared by all the guidance, and the current forecast\ncycle features better agreement amongst the reliable models. The\nofficial track forecast closely resembles the previous one, and lies\nclose to the TVCN and GFEX consensus models.\n\nJose is now experiencing about 20 kt of northerly shear, associated\nwith an upper-level ridge centered to the west. Northerly shear is\nstill expected to increase over the next 12 to 24 hours, and remain\nmoderately strong for a couple of days. Additional weakening is\ntherefore expected through 72 hours despite SSTs sufficiently warm\n(near 29C) to support an intense cyclone. There remains a chance\nthat Jose moves over its own cold wake on days 3 and 4 as indicated\nby latest HWRF guidance, which would lead to a greater amount of\nweakening. Toward the latter part of the forecast period, the shear\nmay relax enough to allow for some reintensification, but the\nconfidence in this is somewhat low. The latest intensity forecast\nis very close to the IVCN consensus and the SHIPS model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 23.7N  68.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 25.2N  69.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 26.5N  69.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 26.9N  68.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  13/0000Z 26.5N  67.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/0000Z 25.0N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  15/0000Z 24.5N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  16/0000Z 25.5N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Birchard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irma","Adv":49,"Date":"2017-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Irma Discussion Number  49\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nIrma is continuing to weaken as it moves across the western Florida\npeninsula, with the eye dissipating and weakening banding near the\ncenter.  There are no recent observations of hurricane-force winds\nnear the center, but based on the premise that such winds still\nexist over the Gulf of Mexico west of the center the initial\nintensity is reduced to 65 kt.  It should be noted that near-\nhurricane force winds are occurring in a band well northeast of the\ncenter with sustained winds of 60 kt reported in the Jacksonville\narea.  The cyclone should continue to weaken as it moves through\nthe southeastern United States, becoming a tropical storm later\ntoday, a tropical depression by 36 h, and a remnant low by 48 h. The\nlarge-scale models forecast Irma to dissipate completely by 72 h,\nso the 72 h point has been removed from the forecast.\n\nThe initial motion is 340/16.  The cyclone is expected to move\naround the eastern side of a mid-level disturbance currently located\nalong the U.S. Gulf Coast, which should cause a north-northwestward\nto northwestward motion until dissipation.  The forecast track\ntakes the center across the eastern Florida Panhandle, southwestern\nGeorgia, eastern and northern Alabama, and eventually into western\nTennessee.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding\nalong portions of the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina,\nwhere a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.\n\n2. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind impacts to much\nof central and north Florida, with hurricane-force winds near the\ncenter.  Also, Irma is a large hurricane, and hurricane-force wind\ngusts and sustained tropical-storm force winds extend far from the\ncenter. Wind hazards from Irma will continue to spread northward\nthrough Georgia and into portions of Alabama, Tennessee, South\nCarolina, and North Carolina.\n\n3. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding\nacross much of the northern peninsula and eastern panhandle of\nFlorida and southern Georgia, which is quickly spreading to the rest\nof the southeast United States.  Intense rainfall rates of 2 inches\nor more per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises on\ncreeks, streams, and rivers. Significant river flooding is likely\nover the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern\nGeorgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches are\nexpected.  Significant river flooding is possible beginning Monday\nand Tuesday in much of central Georgia and southern South Carolina\nwhere average rainfall of 3 to 6 inches and isolated 10 inch amounts\nare expected. Portions of these states within the southern\nAppalachians will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding.\nFarther north and west, Irma is expected to produce average amounts\nof 2 to 4 inches in parts of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee,\nnorthern South Carolina and western North Carolina, where isolated\nhigher amounts and local flooding may occur.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 28.9N  82.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  11/1800Z 30.8N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  12/0600Z 33.0N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  12/1800Z 34.5N  87.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 48H  13/0600Z 35.5N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nAlthough Jose's satellite appearance is somewhat degraded due to the\neffects of northeasterly shear estimated to be near 25 kt, it has\nbeen able to maintain persistent deep convection over the center. A\nwell-timed 0456Z GPM overpass helped to confirm that the center was\non the north side of the cold cloud tops while also highlighting\nthat an eye feature persists despite being obscured in conventional\nimagery. Subjective and objective satellite-based intensity\nestimates indicate that Jose continues on a weakening trend, and\nthis supports lowering the initial intensity to 90 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 335/09 kt as Jose continues\nto track around the western side of a mid-level ridge. As this ridge\nshifts to the southeast and south of Jose over the next 12 to 24\nhours, its forward motion will slow, and the system will begin to\nmove toward the northeast. On days 2 and 3 a ridge will begin to\nstrengthen to the northwest of Jose, driving the system toward the\nsoutheast. By day 4 the ridge will move to a position north of\nJose, which will gradually accelerate Jose toward the west-northwest\nthrough day 5. The expectation is that Jose will complete a small\nclockwise loop over the open waters of the western Atlantic the next\ncouple of days. Despite the complex forecast track, this general\nsolution is shared by all the reliable model guidance. The official\ntrack forecast is shifted slightly north from the previous one due\nto a northward shift in the ECMWF guidance, and is close to the GFEX\nconsensus model.\n\nThe northeasterly shear currently over Jose will shift to the\nnorthwest and will ease a little, but remain strong enough to keep\nJose on a weakening trend through day 3. Although SSTs in the area\nare warm enough to support an intense hurricane, a slow-moving and\nlooping Jose will likely move over its own cold wake around day 3,\nas seen in HWRF guidance. On days 4 and 5, Jose will move toward\nwarmer water while the shear relaxes, and there is a potential for\nreintensification. The latest intensity forecast is very close to\nthe IVCN consensus, but it is more aggressive in weakening Jose than\nthe SHIPS model, which is not accounting for interaction with the\ncold wake.\n\nA 1222Z ASCAT pass sampled Jose nearly perfectly, and the 34/50 kt\nwind radii were adjusted based on this data.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 24.4N  68.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 25.8N  69.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 26.8N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 27.0N  67.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  13/0600Z 26.3N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/0600Z 24.5N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  15/0600Z 25.0N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  16/0600Z 26.5N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Birchard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irma","Adv":50,"Date":"2017-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irma Discussion Number  50\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nIrma continues to weaken while moving over extreme northern Florida\nwith most of the deep convection displaced well to the north and\nnortheast of the center due to strong shear.  In fact, global model\nanalyses suggest that the system has partial extratropical\ncharacteristics, with some associated cold and warm air advection.\nThe current intensity is set at 55 kt which is in line with the\nhighest sustained winds seen in surface observations.  Since the\ncyclone is very large its weakening will be fairly gradual, but the\neffects of land and shear should reduce the system to a depression\nin about 24 hours.  Shortly thereafter Irma will likely become a\nremnant low, with complete dissipation by 72 hours as shown by the\ndynamical guidance.\n\nThe initial motion continues to be north-northwestward or 340/15\nkt.  Not much change has been made to the NHC track forecast.  Irma\nor its remnant should continue to move along the eastern and\nnortheastern periphery of a broad mid-level cyclonic circulation\nuntil dissipation.  The official track forecast is close to the\nlatest corrected multi-model consensus.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding\nalong portions of the coasts of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina,\nwhere a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.\n\n2. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding\nacross much of the northern peninsula and eastern panhandle\nof Florida, and southern Georgia, which is quickly spreading to the\nrest of the southeast United States.  Intense rainfall rates of 2\ninches or more per hour is leading to flash flooding and rapid rises\non creeks, streams, and rivers.  Significant river flooding is\nlikely over the next five days in the Florida peninsula and southern\nGeorgia, where average rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches are\nexpected.  Significant river flooding is possible beginning Monday\nand Tuesday in much of central Georgia and southern South Carolina\nwhere average rainfall of 3 to 6 inches and isolated 10 inch amounts\nare expected.  Portions of these states within the southern\nAppalachians will be especially vulnerable to flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 30.3N  83.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  12/0000Z 32.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  12/1200Z 33.9N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  13/0000Z 35.0N  88.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  13/1200Z 36.0N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nJose is fighting 25 knots of northeasterly shear this morning\naccording to the UW-CIMSS analysis. A new blowup of deep convection\nover the center overnight is helping to maintain the satellite-based\ncurrent intensity estimates, with TAFB and CPHC coming in at 5.0\nwhile SAB had 4.5 and ADT gave 4.6. Have maintained the intensity at\n90 kt for this advisory. A 0826z SSMI pass and an 1118z SSMIS pass\nwere quite helpful in determining the analysis position.\n\nThe analyzed motion for 12z was about 330/12, but Jose should begin\ntrending more northward over the next few hours, if it hasn't\nalready. There is little change to the overall forecast philosophy,\nas Jose completes a slow anticyclonic loop over open waters for the\nnext 72 hours. The rather odd forecast track is the result of a\nmid-level high to the east of Jose which will build south of Jose in\n24 hours, then west of Jose in about 48 hours, and north of Jose\nbetween days 3 and 4. The guidance initially showed this would be a\nrather tight loop, but has opened it up considerably in the past\nfew runs with the GFS and consensus models beginning to lean toward\nthe ECMWF idea. Have adjusted the forecast track to be closer to\nthe TVCN. By days 4 and 5, Jose should track toward the west-\nnorthwest with a bit faster forward motion as the aforementioned\nmid-level high strengthens to the northeast of Jose.\n\nNortherly shear should continue to affect the hurricane for the next\ncouple of days, although there are some differences in the guidance\nabout how strong this shear will be. Have maintained the trend of\nthe previous intensity forecast showing gradual weakening for the\nnext few days. Jose will likely also cross its own wake between days\n3 and 4, which is a little later than previously expected with the\nlarger loop depicted in the forecast track. This forecast maintains\nmodest re-intensification at days 4 and 5 as some of the guidance\nshows the shear relaxing somewhat and the SSTs will be quite warm,\nalthough confidence is quite low.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 25.5N  69.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 26.6N  69.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 27.1N  68.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 26.6N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  13/1200Z 25.7N  66.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/1200Z 24.1N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  15/1200Z 24.6N  70.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  16/1200Z 26.5N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster R Ballard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irma","Adv":51,"Date":"2017-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Irma Discussion Number  51\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n500 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nSurface synoptic data over the southeastern United States indicate\nthat Irma continues to weaken.  The maximum winds are now near 45\nkt, and these are confined to the Georgia and South Carolina coastal\narea, along with some winds to tropical storm force in interior\ncentral to northern Georgia. Irma continues to have some\nextratropical characteristics, since a fairly well-defined\nbaroclinic zone lies not far from the center. Nevertheless, the\nlarge circulation should continue to spin down due to land\ninteraction and strong southwesterly shear. The official intensity\nforecast is above most of the guidance, so the system could weaken\nfaster than shown here. Irma should weaken to a depression in 24\nhours or sooner, and the global guidance shows the circulation\ndissipating over the east-central United States after 48 hours.\n\nSynoptic center fixes give a continued north-northwestward motion\nof 340/15 kt.  There is little change to the track forecast\nreasoning.  For the next day or two, Irma or its remnants should\nmove on a north-northwestward to northwestward track along the\nperiphery of a broad mid-level cyclonic gyre.  The official\nforecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding\nalong portions of the coasts of western Florida, Georgia, and South\nCarolina, where Storm Surge Warnings remain in effect.\n\n2. Irma is producing very heavy rain across the southeastern United\nStates.  Intense rainfall rates are leading to flash flooding and\nrapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers.  Significant river\nflooding will persist over the Florida peninsula in the wake of Irma\nand in Georgia, South Carolina and north-central Alabama, where\nadditional heavy rains are expected.  Portions of these states\nwithin the southern Appalachians will be especially vulnerable to\nflash flooding.  Irma is also expected to produce heavy rains in\nnorthern Mississippi and southern portions of Tennessee and North\nCarolina, where local flooding may occur.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 31.5N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  12/0600Z 33.1N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  12/1800Z 34.5N  87.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  13/0600Z 35.8N  88.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  13/1800Z 37.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nJose is a very messy looking hurricane late this afternoon.\nPersistent northeast shear of 20 to 25 knots has eradicated the\ncentral features of the system, leaving a fairly amorphous blob of\nintermittent, bursting convection. The satellite intensity\nestimates came in at 4.3 from ADT, 4.5 from SAB, and 5.0 from TAFB.\nThe initial intensity was lowered to 85 kt, which is probably\ngenerous given the recent rapid degradation in the satellite\npresentation.\n\nThe best guess at an initial motion is 350/10. Jose is expected to\nslowly complete an anticyclonic or clockwise loop over the next few\ndays, as a mid-level high to the southeast of Jose builds southwest\nof the tropical cyclone in about 24 hours, then to the west of it in\n36 to 48 hours, and northeast of it in about 3 days. By days 4 to 5\nthe high becomes more well established, and Jose will increase\nspeed a bit as it emerges from the loop and treks toward the\nwest-northwest. The guidance is tightly clustered through the next\nfew days, but diverges a bit in days 4 and 5, with more recent runs\nshowing Jose gaining a bit more latitude in the longer time ranges.\nHave nudged the forecast track a little farther north toward the\nGFEX, but the official track remains close to the consensus\nguidance.\n\nThere seems to be better agreement in the models regarding the\nmagnitude of the northerly shear, which is expected to continue to\nweaken the cyclone for the next few days despite warm SSTs. Jose\nis also expected to cross it's own wake in a few days which also\nwill be unfavorable for strengthening. In the 4 to 5 day period,\nthe models suggest the shear may relax enough to allow for some\nre-intensification of Jose, but confidence at this point is rather\nlow.  Our intensity forecast closely follows the statistical models,\nand is near the lower end of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 26.4N  69.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 27.2N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 27.0N  67.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 26.3N  66.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 25.3N  66.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 24.4N  68.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  15/1800Z 26.0N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  16/1800Z 28.1N  74.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster R Ballard\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n300 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nThe remnants of Atlantic Hurricane Katia have redeveloped after\nreaching the Pacific Ocean a couple of days ago.  The system\nmaintained a mid-level circulation while transiting the high terrain\nof Mexico, but had lost its surface center.  Yesterday, deep\nconvection began in association with the mid-level circulation and\ntoday a well-defined surface center formed.  While it was originally\nthought that the convection would be sporadic because of the\nmoderate vertical shear, the deep convection has instead persisted\nclose to the system's center during the last several hours.  Since\nthe system now meets the definition of a tropical cyclone,\nadvisories are initiated as Tropical Depression Fifteen.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt, steered\nprimarily by the deep-layer ridge to its north.  The official track\nforecast is a westward or west-southwestward motion at a slower\nrate of forward speed during the next two days, then a turn back\ntoward the west or west-northwest at days 3 and 4.  This forecast\nis based upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models, as the\nremaining guidance either doesn't know about the depression or\nunrealistically intensifies it and takes it toward the north.\n\nThe system likely will not become very substantial.  The moderate\nshear should continue, while the depression heads toward cool SSTs\nand dry air.  The official intensity forecast shows just modest\nstrengthening to a low-end tropical storm in about a day, before\nweakening begins.  Deep convection may cease in about three days,\nmarking the system's transition to a remnant low.  The intensity\nforecast is based upon the LGEM/DSHIP statistical guidance as the\nmesoscale dynamical models spin the depression up to near hurricane\nstrength, which is not plausible.  If the system does reach\ntropical storm intensity - by no means assured, then it\nwould be named \"Max\", not \"Katia\".\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 16.4N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 16.2N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 15.8N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  13/0600Z 15.4N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  13/1800Z 15.3N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  14/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/1800Z 16.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irma","Adv":52,"Date":"2017-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL112017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Irma Discussion Number  52\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017\n1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nIrma continues to move farther inland and is approaching the\nGeorgia-Alabama border, with a large rain shield spread across much\nof the southeastern United States.  There have been no surface\nreports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds from within the\ntropical storm warning areas, so it is assumed that Irma has\nweakened to a tropical depression with maximum winds of 30 kt.\nWinds should continue to decrease over the next day or so while\nIrma remains over land and is hammered by 40 kt of shear.  These\nconditions should also cause the deep convection to die off, and\nIrma is likely to become a remnant low in about 24 hours.  The\nglobal models are then in agreement that the remnant low will\ndissipate by 48 hours.\n\nIrma has turned northwestward with an initial motion of 325/14 kt.\nThe depression is embedded within a larger cyclonic gyre, which is\nexpected to move northwestward through Monday, and then turn\nnorth-northwestward over western Tennessee or western Kentucky\nbefore it dissipates.\n\nWater levels have fallen below the storm surge warning criteria\nalong the southeastern United States coast and the Florida west\ncoast.  The Storm Surge Warnings in those areas have therefore been\ndiscontinued.\n\nFuture information on this system can be found in Public\nAdvisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at\n5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on\nthe web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Irma continues to produce very heavy rain across the\nsoutheastern United States. Intense rainfall rates are leading to\nflash flooding and rapid rises on creeks, streams, and rivers.\nSignificant river flooding will persist over the Florida peninsula\nin the wake of Irma and across Georgia, South Carolina and\nnorth-central Alabama where additional heavy rains are expected.\nPortions of these states within the southern Appalachians will be\nespecially vulnerable to flash flooding. Irma is also expected to\nproduce heavy rains in northern Mississippi and southern portions of\nTennessee and North Carolina, where local flooding may occur.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding is subsiding along portions of the coasts of\nwestern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 32.4N  84.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n 12H  12/1200Z 33.8N  86.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  13/0000Z 35.2N  88.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 36H  13/1200Z 36.4N  88.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\nIssued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nJose remains resilient in the face of 25 kts of northeasterly shear,\nwith a new burst of deep convection near the center giving the\nsystem a slightly better satellite presentation over the last couple\nof hours. Even so, the convection is pulsing, and satellite based\nintensity estimates support lowering the initial intensity estimate\nto 75 kt for this advisory.\n\nDue to some uncertainty as to the center location, the initial\nmotion for this advisory is approximated to be 045/05 kts. Latest\nround of forecast guidance is consistent with the ongoing forecast\nphilosophy, with Jose expected to complete an anticyclonic or\nclockwise loop over the next 3 days. A mid-level ridge to the\nsoutheast of Jose will shift west then northwest of Jose, leading to\na southeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the ridge\nshifts to the north of the cyclone, Jose will briefly stall before\nresuming a more typical track toward the west and northwest on days\n4 and 5. Even with such a complex track expected to evolve, there is\ngood agreement amongst most of the model guidance. The latest\nofficial forecast is very close to the previous one, nudged only\nslightly northward toward the FSSE and other consensus members, but\nleft of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. UKMET and its ensemble\nmean continue to be on the southwest side of the guidance cone, and\nthese outliers therefore have little impact on the official\ntrack forecast at this time.\n\nThe shear that Jose is encountering is associated with an\nupper-level ridge centered to the northwest, and even as this\nfeature weakens the next day or so, moderate shear is forecast\npersist as Jose remains over 29C water. These conflicting inputs are\nexpected to lead to little change in intensity through day 3, with\nsome potential for Jose to intensify toward the end of the forecast\nperiod as shear relaxes as Jose moves away from its own cold\nwake. The latest intensity forecast is of low confidence at this\ntime due to the above factors and keeps Jose a hurricane through the\nforecast period, and closely resembles SHIPS and IVCN intensity\nguidance.\n\nThe National Hurricane Center in Miami will resume issuance of\nadvisories for Jose at the next forecast cycle. Thanks to the\nWeather Prediction Center, NWS Forecast offices, supporting staff\nand many participating partners for ensuring a successful continuity\nof operations during the past several days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 27.1N  69.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 27.5N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 27.1N  67.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 26.0N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 25.4N  66.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 25.3N  68.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  16/0000Z 27.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  17/0000Z 29.5N  75.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Birchard/Roth/Sisko\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n900 PM MDT Mon Sep 11 2017\n\nThe tropical depression remains sheared, and convection has\ndecreased since this afternoon.  The initial intensity has been held\nat 25 kt based on a blend of the most recent TAFB and SAB Dvorak\nclassifications.  Little change in intensity is forecast for the\nnext few days.  The GFS and ECMWF both indicate that the strong\neasterly wind shear will not decrease for the next 36 to 48 hours,\nwhich should prevent significant strengthening and could cause the\ncyclone to quickly become a remnant low.  After that time, the\nforecast becomes more complicated since the depression, or its\nremnants, may interact with another surface low pressure system\nforecast to develop over the open East Pacific.  As a result of\nthis proximity,  some of the model trackers depict strengthening\nnear the end of the forecast period.  Because most of the models\ndepict the other developing low as the dominant system in any\npotential interaction, I am electing to discount that possibility\nfor now.  The official forecast instead shows the depression\nbecoming a remnant low within 72 hours, and dissipating entirely\nsometime after 96 h, similar to the previous advisory.\n\nThe depression is moving just south of due west at 13 kt.  The low-\nto mid-level components of a ridge located to the north should keep\nthe cyclone moving generally westward through the forecast period,\nuntil it dissipates. The ECMWF solution seems to be the most\nreasonable of the dynamical models because it keeps the depression\nseparate from any other developing low pressure systems. The new\nofficial forecast track is therefore most similar to the ECMWF, and\nis not significantly different from the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 16.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 15.9N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 15.4N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 15.2N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 15.3N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nJose continues to be affected by 20 kt of northerly vertical shear,\nand recent microwave imagery shows that the low-level center is to\nthe northeast or north of a large burst of convection that shows\nlittle evidence of banding. While satellite intensity estimates\nhave changed little since the last advisory, the sheared appearance\nsuggests the cyclone has continued to weaken, and the initial\nintensity is thus reduced to 65 kt in best agreement with the CIMSS\nsatellite consensus.\n\nThe hurricane appears to have turned eastward with an initial motion\nof 090/5. As a mid-level ridge first builds around and then moves\nnortheast of the cyclone, the track guidance forecasts Jose to make\nan anticyclonic half-loop during the next 72 h.  After that time,\nthe confidence in the forecast decreases as the guidance diverges\nsignificantly.  One the right side, the ECMWF and Canadian models\nforecast a turn toward the north and northeast, while on the left\nside the UKMET forecasts a westward motion towards the Bahamas.  The\nGFS, HWRF, and the various consensus models are between these\nextremes in forecasting a turn toward the northwest and eventually\nnorth-northwest.  The new forecast track is in best agreement with\nthese models and shifts slightly to the right of the previous\nadvisory by 120 h.\n\nA strong upper-level anticyclone near 28N 74W is the source of the\ncurrent shear.  As mentioned in the previous advisory, this feature\nis supposed to weaken and pass north of the cyclone without allowing\nmuch decrease in the shear through 48 h.  The large-scale models\nthen suggest the possibility of lighter shear from 48-72 h, followed\nby increasing shear as Jose encounters an upper-level trough moving\neastward from the southeastern United States. Overall, the intensity\nguidance shows small fluctuations in strength during the forecast\nperiod, and there is little agreement in the guidance on the timing\nof the various ups and downs.  The intensity forecast will follow\nthe shear trends in calling for some additional weakening during the\nnext 12-24 h, modest re-intensification during the lighter shear,\nand no change during the subsequent increase in shear.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 27.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 27.5N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 26.9N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 26.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 25.3N  66.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 25.5N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  16/0600Z 27.5N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  17/0600Z 30.0N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nShortwave and BD-curve infrared imagery earlier showed a deep\nconvective burst with -70C cold tops near the surface center.  That\nconvective mass has since been displaced about 90 miles west of the\nexposed center and has warmed and diminished.  Therefore, the\ninitial intensity is held at 25 kt and agrees with the Dvorak\nintensity estimates from SAB and TAFB.  The intensity forecast has\nbecome a bit problematic.  Earlier SHIPS model runs indicated that\nthe shear would either persist or increase.  The latest run,\nhowever, reveals the shear decreasing considerably after 48 hours.\nOn the other hand, the GFS, ECMWF, and the LGEM intensity guidance\nall show the depression gradually weakening and becoming a remnant\nlow in 5 days or less, while the UKMET strengthens the cyclone to a\ntropical storm around day 3.  A third scenario is indicated in the\nHFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique, which is similar to the\nGFS, ECMWF and the LGEM, but shows dissipation in less than 48\nhours. The NHC forecast reflects some increase in intensity at the\n24 hour period, but after that time, it shows weakening to a remnant\nlow in 3 days, out of respect for the GFS and ECMWF global models,\nthe LGEM, and the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) technique.\n\nThe motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/13 kt.  A low- to\nmid-level subtropical ridge extending over the eastern Pacific from\nthe Baja California peninsula is forecast to build slightly\nsouthwestward later today influencing the depression to turn\nwest-southwestward. At the 36 hour period, the cyclone should\ngradually turn back toward the west followed by a northwestward\nmotion around 72 hours in response to an increasing weakness in the\nridge along 123W.  Around day 4, the depression is forecast to\nturn back toward the west within the low-level trade wind flow.\nThe official forecast is slightly south of the previous forecast\nand is in the middle of the ECMWF and HCCA solutions.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 15.8N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.1N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.1N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 15.3N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 15.9N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0600Z 15.9N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Jose is that of a rather amorphous\nblob of deep convection, with only slight evidence of banding\nfeatures.  The system continues to be sheared by northwesterly flow\nassociated with an upper-level anticyclone centered just to its\nwest.  A value of 65 kt is retained for the current intensity, in\nagreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB.  The dynamical models\nindicate that the shear over Jose will remain fairly strong for the\nnext few days with perhaps some relaxation by days 3-5 as an\nupper-level high becomes situated over the system.  Thus a little\nweakening in the short term, followed by some restrengthening later\nin the forecast period, is expected.  Confidence in this intensity\nforecast is, however, lower than usual.\n\nAlthough the center is difficult to locate, a blend of geostationary\nand microwave fixes yield a slow eastward motion of around 090/4 kt.\nJose is currently situated in a region of weak steering currents.\nThe GFS and ECMWF global models build a mid-level anticyclone to the\nwest of the tropical cyclone in a day or two.  The anticyclone is\nthen forecast to shift north, and then east, of Jose later in the\nforecast period.  This evolution of the steering flow should result\nin the tropical cyclone moving in a clockwise loop over the next\nseveral days.  Aside from the U.K. Met. Office prediction, which is\nwell south and west of the other track models, the official forecast\nis near the left side of the guidance suite.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 27.5N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 27.2N  67.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 26.4N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 25.7N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 25.3N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 26.0N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 28.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  17/1200Z 30.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nThe first-light visible imagery from the GOES-16 satellite depicts\na tightly wound low-level center with all of the deep convection\nwest of the center.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt - just a\nbit higher than previously, based upon the TAFB Dvorak\nclassification.\n\nThe dislocation of the deep convection is symptomatic of the\nmoderate to strong vertical shear, forced by the upper-level ridge\nto the north of the depression.  Moderate shear should continue for\nthe next couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the system to\nintensify.  In about two days, the depression may begin interacting\nwith a developing tropical cyclone to its east.  One plausible\nscenario is for the system to be absorbed by the new tropical\ncyclone.  The official forecast instead shows a gradual weakening\nas the depression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly\nhostile upper-level environment.  The intensity forecast is a\nlittle above the previous one in respect to the slightly improved\nstructure shown this morning and is closest to the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus Approach.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt, primarily being\nsteered by the deep-layer ridge to its north.  The depression\nshould continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate\nof forward speed during the next couple of days.  At days three and\nfour, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the\ndeveloping tropical cyclone to the depression's east.  The official\ntrack forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET\n(whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone\ninstead) and is east of that from the previous advisory.  This track\nprediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the\ndivergence of plausible outcomes for the depression.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 15.6N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.2N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 14.9N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 14.9N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 15.6N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/1200Z 15.7N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nJose's convective cloud mass has evolved from a rather shapeless\none into a comma-type pattern today.  This increased organization\nsuggests that the cyclone is at least holding its own in terms of\nintensity.  The advisory intensity of 65 kt is in agreement with a\nDvorak T-number from TAFB and a Current Intensity number from SAB.\nThe dynamical guidance shows moderate to strong shear, from varying\ndirections, over Jose throughout the forecast period.  The consensus\nof the intensity models shows little change in strength for the\nnext 5 days, and so does the official forecast.  This is a slight\nchange from the previous forecast which called for Jose to weaken\nto a tropical storm within a day or so.  Given the current trend\ntoward better organization, however, Jose could easily intensify\nmore than shown here.\n\nA slight repositioning of the working best track was done using a\ncenter fix from an excellent Windsat image from earlier today.  The\ninitial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt.  The\nGFS and ECMWF global models show a mid-level ridge building west,\nthen north, and then east-northeast of Jose over the next few days.\nAs a result, it is expected that the system will execute an\nanticyclonic loop over the next 72 hours or so.  Later in the\nforecast period, Jose is forecast to turn northward and\nnorth-northeastward while moving through a break in the ridge.\nFor unknown reasons, the U.K. Met. Office model track continues to\nbe well west and south of the other guidance.  The official\nforecast track favors the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, but does\nnot go as far to the north-northeast as the ECMWF near the end of\nthe forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 27.6N  67.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 27.1N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 26.3N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 26.0N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 26.2N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 27.3N  69.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 30.0N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  17/1800Z 32.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nThe depression is struggling to maintain deep convection in the face\nof moderate to strong vertical shear.  All of the limited deep\nconvection is displaced about 60 nm west of its center. The TAFB and\nSAB Dvorak Current Intensity values have not changed, so the initial\nintensity remains 30 kt.\n\nThe dislocation of the deep convection should continue, as it's\nbeing forced by strong easterlies due to an upper-level ridge to\nthe north of the depression.  Moderate shear should continue for the\nnext couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the depression to\nintensify.  In about two days, the depression may begin interacting\nwith a developing tropical cyclone to its east.  (This new system\nis currently in the Tropical Weather Outlook with a high chance of\nformation within the next five days.)  One plausible scenario is for\nthe depression to be absorbed by the new tropical cyclone.  The\nofficial intensity forecast instead shows gradual weakening as the\ndepression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly hostile\nupper-level environment.  The intensity forecast is the same as the\nprevious one and is based upon a blend of the global models, the\nLGEM statistical scheme, and the COAMPS mesoscale hurricane model.\n\nThe depression is moving toward the west at 12 kt, primarily being\nsteered by the deep-layer ridge to its north.  The depression should\ncontinue moving in this general direction at a slower rate of\nforward speed during the next couple of days.  At days three and\nfour, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the\ndeveloping tropical cyclone to the depression's east.  The official\ntrack forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET\n(whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone\ninstead) and is about the same as the previous advisory.  This track\nprediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the\ndivergence of plausible outcomes for the depression.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 15.6N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 15.2N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 14.9N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 15.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 15.3N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/1800Z 15.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nRecent microwave imagery has revealed that Jose has a fairly sturdy\nstructure, despite 20-25 kt of northerly shear.  The hurricane has\na well-defined mid-level eye, and a 2241 UTC WindSat pass shows a\nwell-defined low-level circulation that is slightly eroded on the\nnorthwest side.  Since Dvorak final-T numbers are 4.0 from TAFB and\nSAB, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, although it wouldn't be\nsurprising if the winds were a little stronger than that.  Jose\ncould strengthen slightly during the next 12-24 hours while it\nremains in a regime of northerly shear, and models like the HWRF\nand HCCA support that thinking.  After 24 hours, the shear is\nexpected to turn out of the west-northwest and west directions,\nwhich are less likely to support intensification.  Therefore, the\nNHC official forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus\n(IVCN), showing Jose becoming a tropical storm on days 3 through 5.\nThe ECMWF shows Jose encountering significant westerly shear by day\n5, so it's possible that NHC forecast may be a little high toward\nthe end of the forecast period.\n\nThe microwave data indicated that Jose's center is a little more\nsoutheast than previously estimated, and the initial motion\nestimate is now 125/8 kt.  Jose is being pushed southeastward on\nthe back side of a large mid-latitude trough, but this trough will\nsoon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to\nits north.  As a result, Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise\nloop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and\nnortheastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge.\nOnly the UKMET disagrees with this scenario by maintaining a\npersistent ridge to the north, and that model is discounted at this\ntime.  The NHC track forecast lies closest to a consensus of the\nGFS and ECMWF for most of the forecast period, and it's only a bit\nsouthwest of the previous forecast through day 3 to account for the\nupdated initial position.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 26.5N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 25.9N  65.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 25.3N  65.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 25.2N  66.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 25.6N  67.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 27.3N  70.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 30.0N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  18/0000Z 32.5N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017\n\nAlthough deep convection associated with the depression has\nincreased since the previous advisory, it remains displaced\nto the west of the center due to about 15 kt of easterly wind\nshear.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a\nblend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\n\nThe current wind shear affecting the depression is expected to\npersist overnight, so little change in intensity is forecast during\nthat time.  Thereafter, the global models show the upper-level wind\npattern becoming a little less hostile over the depression.  This\nslightly more favorable atmospheric environment combined with warm\nSSTs should allow the system to strengthen a little.  Earlier\nmodel solutions showed the depression interacting with a developing\nsystem to its east, but the guidance is showing less interaction\nnow.  Based on the model trends and the expected environmental\nconditions, the NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for the\ndepression to become a remnant low, and instead predicts the system\nto remain a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days.  This forecast\nis in good agreement with the latest models, except at day 5 where\nit lies on the low side of the guidance.\n\nSatellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving just south of\ndue west, 265 degrees, at 11 kt.  A continued west motion, but at\na much slower pace is expected during the next few days as a\nmid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone weakens.  By the end of\nthe forecast period, the system could become stationary when it is\nexpected to be embedded in very weak steering currents.  The NHC\ntrack forecast is a little faster than the previous one to come in\nline with the latest model guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 15.4N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 15.2N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 15.5N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 15.6N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 15.5N 125.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 15.5N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  18/0000Z 15.6N 126.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nJose continues to be affected by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical\nshear, and a recent GMI overpass shows that the low-level center is\nat the northern edge of the convective mass.  While the current\norganization is that of a system of less than hurricane strength,\nthe various satellite intensity estimates remain near 65 kt.  Thus,\nJose remains a hurricane for this advisory.\n\nThe GMI overpass shows that Jose is moving southeastward or 135/7.\nA large deep-layer trough to the northeast of the cyclone is\nresponsible for this motion.  However, this trough will soon leave\nJose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its northwest,\nnorth, and eventually northeast.  This evolution should cause Jose\nto make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn\nnorthward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of\nthe ridge.  The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement\nfor this advisory, as the UKMET has shifted eastward from its\nFlorida landfall forecast and now shows a northward motion along\n75W by 120 h.  However, there still remains a significant spread\nbetween that model on the left and the ECMWF on the right, which\nhas Jose closer to 67W by that time.  The new forecast track is\nsimilar to the previous track through 72 h, and then it is nudged\njust a little to the west of the previous track.  The 72-120 h\nportion of the forecast track lies west of the HCCA, Florida State\nSuperensemble, and ECMWF, but lies to the east of the other\nconsensus models.\n\nThere is a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.  First,\nthe large-scale models forecast the current shear is likely to\npersist for at least the next 24 h, followed by some decrease at\nabout 36-48 h.  However, none of the intensity guidance shows\nweakening during the first 24 h or much strengthening at 36-48 h.\nSecond, the cyclone is likely to cross its path, and possibly a wake\nof colder sea surface temperatures, between 48-72 h.  Third, Jose\nshould encounter stronger shear after 72 h, but it may interact with\na mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States that may\ngive the system a kick through baroclinic processes.  Indeed, the\nGFS, UKMET, and ECMWF agree on showing a falling central pressure\nfrom 72-120 h.  Based on the overall trend of the guidance,  the\nintensity forecast is tweaked a little from the previous advisory to\nshow little change in strength through 48 h and slight weakening\nthereafter.  However, this is a low-confidence forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 26.1N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 25.4N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 25.0N  65.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 25.3N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 26.2N  68.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 28.0N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 30.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  18/0600Z 33.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nThe overall convective pattern of the depression has changed little\nsince the previous advisory and remains sheared to the west of the\nexposed surface circulation.  Displaced intermittent bursts of deep\nconvection with cloud tops colder than -70C yield an initial shear\npattern intensity estimate of 30 kt, and this is further supported\nby a 0540 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass which suggests that the\ndepression is just below tropical storm strength.  The Decay-SHIPS\nintensity model and the large-scale deterministic guidance show the\nshear gradually diminishing through the entire forecast period.\nAccordingly, the official forecast reflects slow strengthening\nthrough 3 days, then little change thereafter, which is just below\nthe HCCA, DSHP, and the better performing IVCN multi-model\nconsensus.\n\nA 0201 UTC WindSat image and a 0247 UTC AMSU 89 GHZ composite\noverpass were helpful in estimating the position and the initial\nmotion which is westward, or 270/8 kt.  There is no significant\nchange to the previous track forecast or reasoning.  A weakening\nlow- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the north should steer the\ndepression generally westward through 48 hours, but with a slight\nreduction in speed with time.  Beyond 48 hours, the cyclone becomes\ntrapped in a much weaker steering flow induced by a mid-level ridge\nbetween the depression, a developing system to the east, and a\nbuilding high from the northwest.  Subsequently, the official\nforecast indicates very little motion, or a meander through day 5.\nThe NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous\npackage beyond 24 hours out of respect for the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus technique and the ECMWF.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 14.9N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 14.9N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 15.4N 123.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 15.5N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 15.2N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 15.2N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  18/0600Z 15.5N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nJose continues to be affected by strong northwesterly shear\nassociated with an upper-level anticyclone centered to its west.\nAlthough the hurricane tried to develop some banding features\nyesterday, the system has again transformed into a rather\nshapeless mass of intense convection.  The current intensity\nestimate is held at 65 kt in agreement with Dvorak Current\nIntensities from TAFB and SAB.  The intensity forecast continues\nto be of low confidence.  Dynamical models indicate that strong\nshear, from varying directions, will persist over Jose for the next\nseveral days.  Also, the tropical cyclone will likely be passing\nover its own cold wake in a couple of days.  These factors argue\nagainst strengthening, so the official forecast shows no change\nfollowed by slight weakening later in the period.  This is on the\nhigh side of the intensity model guidance.\n\nJose has been moving slowly southeastward, or 140/6 kt, between a\nmid-level anticyclone to its west and a trough to the northeast.\nThe global models show a high pressure area building to the east-\nnortheast of Jose in a couple of days, which should eventually\ninduce a poleward motion.  The track models show a looping motion\nduring the next 48 hours followed by a turn toward the north, as\ndoes the official forecast.  The latest NHC track is similar to the\nprevious one and lies between the ECMWF solution and the other\nmodels, which are farther west.  This keeps Jose away from land\nareas for at least the next several days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 25.5N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 25.2N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 25.1N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 25.5N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 26.4N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 28.5N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z 31.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  18/1200Z 34.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern has not become any better organized since\nyesterday and consists of a low-level center in between two\nshapeless blobs of deep convection.  Dvorak T-numbers have\ndecreased, but the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  There are no\nobvious reasons for why the cyclone will not intensify.  The shear\nis forecast to decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm.\nOn this basis, little change is anticipated during the next 24 to 36\nhours, and some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter.  The\ndepression still has the opportunity to become a tropical storm.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270\ndegrees at 8 kt.  The depression is embedded within light easterly\nflow south of a subtropical ridge.  Global models indicate that\nsteering currents will remain weak, and this flow will only provide\na very slow westward motion through the next 5 days.  The NHC\nforecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, but the envelope\nbroadens by the end of the forecast period, implying less confidence\nin 4 and 5 days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 14.9N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 15.0N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 15.5N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 15.5N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 15.3N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  18/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather near\nthe southwest coast of Mexico has developed a well-defined center\nsurrounded by bands of deep convection.  T-numbers from both TAFB\nand SAB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale and on this basis, advisories\nhave been initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E.  A portion of\nthe circulation is already interacting with land, and no significant\nstrengthening is forecast before the center moves inland.  Given\nthat the there is a possibility of tropical storm force winds mainly\nin gusts, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch\nfor a portion of the coast.\n\nThe depression is located at the bottom of a large mid-latitude\ntrough, and this pattern will carry the depression slowly\nnortheastward toward the coast of Mexico, and then farther inland\nwhere the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low.\n\nVery heavy rains are the main threat from this tropical cyclone.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 16.2N 101.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 16.7N 101.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 17.0N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  15/1200Z 17.0N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nNorthwesterly shear continues to affect Jose, with exposed low cloud\nlines over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Overall, the\nsystem is a little less well-organized than it was 24 hours ago,\nwith less evidence of banding features.  The intensity is kept at 65\nkt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.\nThe global models continue to show significant shear over Jose for\nthe next several days, and this shear is forecast to become quite\nstrong by days 4 and 5.  The official intensity forecast shows a\nlittle weakening in a couple of days, but it would not be surprising\nto see Jose drop below hurricane status sooner than shown here.\n\nJose appears to be nearing the base of its anticipated anticyclonic\nloop while drifting slowly southward.  The cyclone is expected to\nturn to the west and west-northwest over the next day or so.  Later\nin the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid-\nlevel high builds to the east-northeast.  Jose is expected to move\nthrough a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days.  The official\ntrack forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the\nmiddle of the reliable guidance suite.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 25.3N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 25.1N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 25.4N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 26.2N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 27.3N  69.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 30.3N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 33.2N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  18/1800Z 36.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern is still disorganized and the circulation appears\nto be somewhat elongated. Most of the deep convection is located to\nthe southwest of the center due to some moderate northeasterly\nshear. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed and consequently, the\ninitial intensity is kept at 30 kt.  There are no obvious reasons\nwhy the cyclone will not intensify a little.  The shear is forecast\nto decrease in a couple of days and the ocean is warm. On this\nbasis, little change is anticipated during the next 12 hours or so\nand some slight strengthening is forecast thereafter, and the\ndepression is still expected to become a tropical storm.\n\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 275\ndegrees at 6 kt.  The depression is embedded within light easterly\nflow south of a subtropical ridge.  Global models indicate that the\nsteering currents will weaken even more, and this flow will only\nproduce a very slow westward motion through the next 3 days. After\nthat time, the cyclone will probably begin to meander as the\nsteering flow collapses completely.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 15.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 15.2N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 15.4N 123.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  18/1800Z 16.0N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Max Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nVisible imagery during the day indicate that the cloud pattern has\nimproved in organization and consists of a well-defined cyclonically\ncurved convective band.  This band wraps around an area of deep\nconvection where the center is located.  T-numbers from both TAFB\nand SAB agree that the cyclone is now a tropical storm with 35 kt\nwinds.  A portion of the circulation is already interacting with\nland, so no significant strengthening is forecast before the center\nmoves inland.  The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm\nwarning for a portion of the coast.\n\nThe depression is located at the bottom of a large mid-latitude\ntrough, and this pattern will carry the depression slowly east-\nnortheastward toward the coast of Mexico, and then farther inland.\nMost of the global models dissipate Max once it moves over the high\nterrain, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to dissipate\nin about 48 hour or sooner.\n\nThe main threat from Max will be torrential rains over portions of\nsouthwestern Mexico.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 16.1N 101.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.8N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 17.0N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\n 48H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nDeep convection appears to have expanded out over the estimated\nlocation of the low-level center a bit during the past few hours,\nand the initial intensity is set to 70 kt based on a blend of the\nlatest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS\nADT. Overall, the intensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with\nmoderate shear expected to persist for the next 2-3 days and then\nincrease further late in the period. Slow weakening is expected\nduring the first 24 to 36 hours, followed by little change in\nintensity during the rest of the forecast period. By day 5, a\nmid-level trough will likely be supporting Jose with some baroclinic\nenergy to maintain the cyclone's intensity in an environment of\nhigher shear and slightly cooler waters. The new NHC intensity\nforecast is close to the IVCN consensus aid through the period.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/03, as Jose\nnow appears to be moving slowly westward. A building subtropical\nridge to the east of Jose will become the dominant steering\nmechanism through much of the forecast period, with some influence\nfrom the above-mentioned upper-level trough by day 5. This pattern\nshould cause Jose to gradually turn poleward during the next 72\nhours, with a northward to north-northeastward motion expected by\ndays 4-5. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the\nprevious one at 48 and 72 hours, but is otherwise similar and lies\nroughly between the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nJose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the\nsouthwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough\nsurf and rip current conditions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 25.2N  66.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 25.2N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 25.9N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 27.0N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 28.0N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 30.5N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 33.7N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  19/0000Z 36.6N  68.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 PM PDT Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nDuring the afternoon hours, the mid-level center of the depression\nbecame completely removed from the now exposed low-level center.  A\nsmall tight swirl embedded within a broader, elongated, low-level\ncirculation is still evident, but deep convection is limited to a\nband displaced about 60 n mi to the west of the center.  The initial\nintensity has been held at 30 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data. Given\nthe poor convective structure of the depression, little change in\nintensity is expected for the next day or so. After that time, the\nGFS and ECMWF both forecast that the upper-level wind pattern will\nbecome more favorable for intensification.  Once that happens, most\nof the intensity guidance forecasts that the cyclone will begin to\nsteadily strengthen, especially after about 72 h.  My forecast is a\nlittle higher than the previous NHC forecast at 96 h and 120 h, and\nis very close to IVCN.\n\nThe depression has been nearly stationary for the past 6 hours. The\ninitial motion estimate assumes at least some movement, and is a\nrather uncertain 270/02 kt.  The global models agree that the\ncyclone will remain trapped in weak steering flow throughout the\nforecast period, but vary greatly on how much it will move.  A\ncomplicating factor is that the GFS suggests that the low-level\ncenter may reform underneath the mid-level center to the south. My\nforecast assumes that the current center of circulation will\npersist, but a larger change may be required if such a reformation\noccurs. The new official track forecast is slower than the previous\none for the first 36 h, but is close after that, and still shows\nlittle movement throughout the forecast period.  The track forecast\nis based heavily on the ECMWF model, especially beyond day 2.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 15.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 15.2N 122.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 15.4N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  15/1200Z 15.5N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/0000Z 15.3N 124.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  17/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  18/0000Z 16.0N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  19/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Max Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017\n\nA 2236Z SSMIS pass showed that Max has a banding mid-level eye, and\na partial eye has been noted in radar imagery from Acapulco.  Given\nthis improved structure, the initial intensity has been set to 50\nkt, leaning toward the latest Dvorak classification from SAB and the\nUW-CIMSS ADT estimate.  Since Max has developed some inner-core\nstructure, further strengthening seems likely, with the only\napparent limiting factor being land interaction in 12 to 24 hours.\nThe NHC forecast has been adjusted upward, and now shows Max\nreaching a 60-kt intensity in 12 h.  Since some additional\nstrengthening is possible before landfall, Max could become a\nhurricane before reaching the coast of Mexico.  Quick weakening is\nforecast after landfall, and Max is expected to dissipate by 36\nhours.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 065/03.  Max should be steered\neast-northeastward to northeastward toward the coast by a mid-level\nridge centered to the tropical cyclone's southeast.  The new NHC\ntrack has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one,\ntoward the latest consensus aids.\n\nGiven the new intensity forecast, a hurricane watch has been issued\nfor a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico.  In addition to\nthe increased wind threat, Max will produce life-threatening\nflooding rainfall in portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0300Z 16.3N 101.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  14/1200Z 16.7N 100.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  15/0000Z 16.9N  99.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nEarlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in\nconventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since\nbeen restored.  A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level\ncenter was displaced to the south of the low-level center.\nObjective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that\nbasis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt.\n\nI expect little change in strength through the forecast period.\nModerate shear should prevent significant intensification for the\nnext couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical\nStorm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more\nbaroclinicly-driven cyclone.  In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some\nextratropical characteristics by day 5.  The dynamical models all\nindicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so\nthe new NHC forecast reflects that.\n\nThe initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt.\nAlthough the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed,\nthere has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the\nlast forecast.  A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little\nstronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn\ntoward the northwest, and eventually the north.  Since the\nguidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west\nof the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the\nguidance envelope.  I would prefer to see more run to run\nconsistency before committing to a farther left track at this time.\n\nJose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the\nsouthwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough\nsurf and rip current conditions.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 25.1N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 25.2N  67.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 25.9N  68.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 26.7N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 27.8N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 29.7N  72.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  18/0600Z 32.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  19/0600Z 35.0N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nThe depression continues to be disorganized with the low- and\nmiddle-level centers well separated due to shear. This can be\nclearly observed on conventional imagery as well as microwave data.\nGiven the lack of organization, the initial intensity is kept at 30\nkt, and no change in strength is anticipated during the next 24\nhours or so. After that time, the shear is forecast to decrease, and\nthe depression could become better organized and reach tropical\nstorm status. This is the scenario provided by most of the guidance.\n\nMy best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest\nor 285 degrees at 4 kt. The depression continues to be trapped\nwithin weak steering flow, and only a small westward drift is\nforecast. In fact, by the end of the forecast period, the steering\ncurrents are expected to collapse, and the cyclone will probably\nbegin to meander. The NHC forecast follows most of the guidance up\nto 4 days. After that time, models diverge considerably and the\nforecast is highly uncertain.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 15.3N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  15/1800Z 15.5N 124.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  17/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  18/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  19/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Max Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n400 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nWe have good data this morning. Very useful radar images from\nMexico show that Max's structure has improved during the past few\nhours. An excellent ASCAT pass over the system was helpful in\ndetermining the intensity and the tropical-storm-force wind radii.\nFurthermore, the ship A8MW6 reported 45 kt winds and 11 foot waves\nnear the coast of Mexico. Based on these data, the initial intensity\nwas adjusted to 55 kt. At this point, it would only take a small\nincrease in intensity for  Max to reach the coast as a hurricane.\nOnce the center moves inland the cyclone is forecast to weaken\nquickly and dissipate within 36 hours.\n\nMax is moving toward the east-northeast or 070 degrees at 5 kt. The\nstorm is embedded within a west-southwest flow and this flow\npattern will steer Max toward Mexico until dissipation. Based on\nthe forecast track, the core should be inland within the warning\narea within the next 12 hours.\n\nMax will produce life-threatening flooding rainfall in portions of\nthe states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/0900Z 16.6N 100.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 16.9N  99.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-14 12:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Max Special Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n700 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nRadar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, indicates that Max has\ncontinued to improve in structure and now has a well-defined eye\nand closed eyewall.  An eye has also occasionally been evident in\ninfrared satellite imagery.  Based on these signs, Max has been\nupgraded to a hurricane with 65-kt winds.\n\nMax appears to be cruising eastward just offshore the coast of\nMexico.  However, the hurricane is still expected to move inland\nlater today.  The 12-hour point has been adjusted southward and\nincreased to 75 kt to account for Max's recent motion, possible\ndelayed landfall, and increased opportunity to strengthen before it\nreaches land.\n\nThe government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and\nHurricane Watch from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado to a Hurricane\nWarning.  Life-threatening flooding rainfall is still expected in\nportions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.\n\nThis special advisory is being issued in lieu of the regularly\nscheduled 7 AM CDT intermediate public advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1200Z 16.3N 100.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  14/1800Z 16.6N  99.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  15/0600Z 16.8N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nSatellite images show that Jose remains a sheared tropical cyclone.\nThe center of the cyclone is on the northwestern edge of the deep\nconvection, with any significant banding features in the\nsoutheastern quadrant.  Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose has\nweakened slightly, so the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt.\n\nUsing fixes from early-morning microwave data, Jose appears to be\nmoving west-northwestward at about 6 kt due to a building mid-level\nridge to the north of the cyclone.  Jose should gradually turn\nnorthwestward by the weekend and northward early next week while it\nmoves around the ridge.  A trough currently over the Lower\nMississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected\nto play a key role in how close Jose comes to the eastern United\nStates.  Some of the model solutions show the trough tugging on the\ntropical cyclone, causing a more north-northwestward motion at the\nend of the period, while others have the trough deflecting the\ncyclone more out to sea. While it is too early for details at this\npoint, the model guidance is generally west of the previous\nforecast, so the new NHC prediction is shifted to the left, about 60\nn mi west-southwest of previous forecast at day 5.\n\nVertical shear is forecast to lessen in about a day near Jose, so\nrestrengthening is expected to commence on Friday since the cyclone\nis over warm water.  After day 3, Jose will be interacting with the\naforementioned Lower Mississippi Valley trough, which will probably\ncause an increase in shear, although some baroclinic energy could\nlessen those effects.  Although the official intensity forecast\nshows little change at the end of the period, the model guidance\ndoes show Jose becoming larger and more spread out as it interacts\nwith the trough.\n\nJose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the\nsouthwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough\nsurf and rip current conditions.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 24.9N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 25.1N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 25.8N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 26.7N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 27.7N  72.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 29.8N  72.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z 32.4N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  19/1200Z 35.5N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nThe depression is still poorly organized, as about 15 kt of easterly\nshear continues to separate the low- and mid-level circulation\ncenters. The initial intensity remains 30 kt given that the cloud\npattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The SHIPS\nmodel shows the shear relaxing by 24 hours, and with the cyclone\nover 27-28C water, some slow strengthening is predicted. The\ncyclone begins to move into a drier and more stable airmass by days\n4 and 5, with the shear possibly increasing again, so some weakening\nis expected by day 5.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/04 since there\nhaven't been any recent microwave passes. The depression is\ncurrently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. This feature\nweakens with time, leaving the cyclone is a region of weak\nsteering currents, with most of the guidance favoring some slow\npoleward motion late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is\nclose to the latest HFIP consensus aid HCCA and is of low\nconfidence.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 15.4N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brennan\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Max Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nMax continues to have a well-defined eye in radar imagery from\nAcapulco, Mexico, even though the eye that was observed in earlier\ninfrared satellite imagery has become obscured.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are up to T4.0/65 kt, but given the\nhurricane's structure as seen in radar data, the initial intensity\nis set slightly higher at 70 kt.\n\nRadar animations indicate that Max's eye has been moving just north\nof due east, and the initial motion is estimated to be 085/5 kt.\nMax is located to the north of a mid-level ridge extending\nsouthwest of Guatemala, and the flow around this ridge should force\nthe hurricane to move eastward or east-northeastward across the\ncoast of Guerrero or Oaxaca by this evening or tonight.  After\nlandfall, Max should move farther inland over southern Mexico.\n\nWith sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius and relatively\nlow shear, the environment appears conducive for further\nstrengthening before Max reaches the coast.  The new NHC forecast\nclosely follows the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance\nand shows a little more intensification during the next 12 hours\nthan was indicated in the previous advisory.  Max will weaken\nquickly after landfall, and is expected to dissipate over the\nmountainous terrain of southern Mexico by 36 hours.\n\nHeavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max.\nRainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of\n20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and\nOaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are\npossible.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 16.3N  99.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 16.5N  99.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 16.9N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nThe convective structure of the area of disturbed weather well to\nthe south of the Baja California peninsula has continued to\nincrease in organization, with an elongated band wrapping around\nthe southern and eastern sides of the circulation.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates have increased to T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.0/30 kt\nfrom SAB, so the system is now classified as a 35-kt tropical storm.\n\nSince Norma has just recently consolidated, its motion is a little\nuncertain, but the best estimate is slowly northward, or 360/4 kt.\nNorma is located to the northwest of a mid-level ridge that extends\nwestward from Central America, but it is also due south of a\nblocking high centered over northwestern Mexico.  As a result, the\nstorm is expected to only drift slowly northward for the next 48\nhours or so.  After 48 hours, a more pronounced northward motion is\nforecast, but there is a lot of spread among the track models\nregarding exactly how fast Norma moves north and if it moves east or\nwest at all.  On the eastern side of the guidance envelope, the GFS\nhas a weaker ridge over Mexico and a deeper trough off the\nCalifornia coast, which would cause Norma to turn northeastward\nnear the southern part of the Baja California peninsula.  On the\nwestern side of the guidance, the ECMWF maintains a stronger ridge,\nforcing Norma to turn northwestward to the west of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.  Until the evolving pattern becomes clearer,\nthe NHC track forecast is between these two extremes and lies\nclosest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA).\n\nNorma is over very warm waters and should remain in a low-shear\nenvironment for at least the next 48-72 hours.  As a result,\nsteady strengthening is anticipated, and Norma could reach\nhurricane strength within about 36 hours.  Strengthening should\ncontinue through 48-72 hours until vertical shear begins to\nincrease, and a weakening trend is likely to occur on days 4 and 5.\nThe NHC intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS guidance and\nthe ICON intensity consensus, and it is slightly below the HCCA\noutput.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/1500Z 17.2N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  15/0000Z 17.7N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  15/1200Z 18.1N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  16/0000Z 18.4N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  16/1200Z 18.9N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  17/1200Z 21.0N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  18/1200Z 23.5N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  19/1200Z 25.5N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":38,"Date":"2017-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon,\nwith the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the\ncentral dense overcast.  Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are\nunchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60\nkt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into\nthe circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the\nnorthern semicircle.  This dry air should gradually mix out while\nJose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear\nconditions.  This environment favors some strengthening over the\nnext few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying\nbetween the model consensus and the global models.  In the longer\nterm, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should\nmoderate.  Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5,\nand that is reflected in the official forecast.\n\nJose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt.  The\nstorm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early\nMonday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic\nOcean.  Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the\nstrength of that ridge, leading to some significant model\ndifferences on this cycle.  The leftmost global model is the UKMET,\nwhich moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other\nguidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to\nthe Outer Banks.  However, most of the rest of the guidance show the\nnorthward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track.\nGiven the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will\nput more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little\nchange to the previous track.  It should be noted there is a fair\nbit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does\nnot give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast\ncoast of the United States, and will spread northward along the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These\nswells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions.\n\n2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions\nof the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward\nto New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts\nmight be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast\nfrom North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the\nprogress of Jose during the next several days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 25.2N  67.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 25.6N  68.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 26.5N  70.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 27.5N  71.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 28.6N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 30.7N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z 33.5N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  19/1800Z 36.5N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nVisible satellite imagery shows that the depression is still poorly\norganized.  The circulation is highly elongated, and the associated\ndeep convection is not well organized due to moderate easterly\nshear.  The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, and leans toward the\nlower Dvorak T-numbers provided by SAB given the poor satellite\npresentation.  The vertical shear over the system is expected to\ndecrease within the next day or two, which should provide an\nopportunity for the system to strengthen.  Both the statistical\nguidance and the global models predict modest intensification over\nthe weekend, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a\ntropical storm in 36 to 48 h, with some additional strengthening\nthrough day 3. After that time, drier air and increasing shear is\nlikely to cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/4 kt.  The depression is\nforecast to move generally westward at a slower-than-climatological\nrate during the next couple of days while it is situated within\nan area of weak steering flow.  Later in the period, a mid-level\ntrough that is expected to deepen well southwest of southern\nCalifornia should steer the depression slowly poleward by early next\nweek.  However, there is increasing spread in the track guidance\nat days 4 and 5, and there is lower confidence in the track\nforecast at those times.  The NHC track forecast is once again in\nbest agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.6N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 15.9N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 15.7N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 15.6N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z 16.7N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  19/1800Z 17.3N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Max Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nMax's structure continued to improve since the last advisory, with\na well-defined eye showing up in both visible and infrared\nsatellite images for a couple of hours.  At 1800 UTC, satellite\nclassifications ranged from 65 to 90 kt, so guidance was\ninitialized at 75 kt.  However, Max's center appears to be moving\nonshore to the east of Acapulco, and the eye that was observed in\nsatellite imagery has disappeared.  The advisory intensity is\ntherefore set a little lower at 70 kt.\n\nThe initial motion is 080/7 kt, with Max being steered eastward to\nthe north of a mid-level ridge extending southwestward from Central\nAmerica.  An eastward or east-northwestward motion is expected to\ncontinue, and Max will be moving farther inland over southern\nMexico.  There were only a few trackers available from the track\nguidance, and the NHC forecast is primarily an extrapolation of the\ncurrent motion for the next 12 hours.\n\nNow that Max is moving onshore and will be encountering the\nmountains of southern Mexico, rapid weakening is likely.  In fact,\nthe center of the small cyclone will probably not fare well in the\nhigh terrain, and Max is forecast to dissipate by 24 hours, if not\nsooner.\n\nHeavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max.\nRainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of\n20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and\nOaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are\npossible.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 16.6N  99.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...ON THE COAST\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.9N  98.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nNorma has a broad and well-defined circulation with multiple\nconvective bands, especially to the east and south of the center.\nAlthough the convective bands are a little broken in infrared\nimagery, Dvorak intensity estimates have gone up to T3.5 from TAFB\nand T2.5 from SAB and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  The\ninitial intensity has therefore been raised to 40 kt.\n\nThe cyclone continues to move slowly northward with an initial\nmotion of 010/5 kt.  As mentioned in the previous discussion, a\nblocking high to the north of Norma should impede its northward\nmotion for the next 48 hours, with the forward speed staying below\n5 kt.  There is still no clarity on the forecast track after 48\nhours, with the new 12Z ECMWF and UKMET models remaining on the\nwestern side of the guidance envelope to the west of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula, while the remainder of the models generally\nshow a track over the southern part of the peninsula then turning\ninto northwestern Mexico.  Since the tracks of the GFS and HWRF\nmodels lie close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and HCCA, the\nNHC official forecast continues to favor this set of models.\nStill, confidence in the forecast after 48 hours is quite low at\nthis time.\n\nSince Norma already has a well-structured circulation, warm waters\nand low shear should lead to a fairly fast increase in intensity\nover the next couple of days.  The updated NHC intensity forecast\nis a little higher than the previous one and is generally close to\nSHIPS and the ICON intensity consensus.  An important note,\nhowever, is that HCCA is higher than the NHC forecast, and the\nrapid intensification indices, while not high, have increased from\n6 hours ago.  These trends will be watched, and it is possible that\nNorma could strengthen more than shown here.  Weakening is likely\nto occur by days 4 and 5 due to land interaction with the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula and increasing vertical shear.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  14/2100Z 17.7N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  15/0600Z 18.1N 109.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  15/1800Z 18.7N 109.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  16/0600Z 19.2N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  16/1800Z 19.8N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  17/1800Z 21.9N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  18/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  19/1800Z 27.0N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":39,"Date":"2017-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nAlthough the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears\nto be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern\nsemicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was\nobserved earlier today.  A blend a objective and subjective current\nintensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt.\n\nNo change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains\nnear the multi-model consensus.  Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the\nGFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid\nenvironment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm\nSSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening.  The intensity\nguidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a\nhurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to\nintensify further before the shear increases substantially.  Toward\nthe end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is\nstill expected to be a hurricane at day 5.\n\nMuch like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made\nto the NHC track forecast.  Based on a few recent microwave images,\nJose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around\n7 kt.  Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery\nof a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward\nthe north over the next 2 days.  Aside from the UKMET, which\nremains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the\nfuture heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed.  The new NHC\nforecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and\nis close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west\nbias.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast\ncoast of the United States, and will spread northward along the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These\nswells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions.\n\n2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions\nof the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward\nto New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts\nmight be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast\nfrom North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the\nprogress of Jose during the next several days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 25.5N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 26.1N  69.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 26.9N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 27.9N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 29.0N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 31.4N  72.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 34.2N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 37.0N  70.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nConvection associated with an area of low pressure over the far\neastern Atlantic has become much better organized during the past 12\nhours, with an increase in banding over the western portion of the\ncirculation.  A Dvorak classification of 2.0 from TAFB suggests that\nthe intensity is around 30 kt.  The system is currently embedded\nwithin an area of light to moderate easterly shear.  This should not\nprevent the system from gradually strengthening while it moves over\nwarm water during the next couple of days.  After that time, a mid-\nto upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause\nan increase in southwesterly shear, which could become quite strong\nby days 4 and 5.  As a result, weakening is expected late in the\nforest period.  The NHC intensity forecast is between the higher\nstatistical guidance and the lower dynamical models.\n\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/19 kt. A high\npressure ridge currently over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to\nweaken as the aforementioned trough develops over the central\nAtlantic by early next week.  This should cause a significant\nreduction in the forward speed of the depression over the weekend.\nThere is some spread in the track guidance later in the period, with\nthe GFS taking a stronger cyclone more northward, while the EC takes\na weaker system more westward.  The NHC track is between these\nsolutions and is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 10.7N  25.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 11.2N  27.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 11.5N  29.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 11.5N  30.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 11.5N  31.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 11.8N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 12.8N  38.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 14.4N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nConvection has increased a little near the alleged center of the\ndepression, but a low-level center is difficult to identify in\nrecent AMSR and SSMIS imagery.  A larger SW-NE elongated\ncirculation is still present, however, and it is possible that\nthe center is reforming closer to the convection within the larger\ncyclonic envelope.  In an absence of any other data to use, the\nintensity has been held at 30 kt since Dvorak estimates from TAFB\nand SAB are unchanged from 6 hours ago.\n\nAssuming the center will soon consolidate under the convection, some\nintensification over the forecast period is still expected since the\nshear is low and SSTs are fairly warm.  By the end of the forecast\nperiod, drier air is expected to inhibit convection, which should\ncause the cyclone to begin to weaken.  No significant changes have\nbeen made to the intensity forecast, which is based on a selective\nensemble of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF.\n\nGiven the poor definition of the low-level circulation, the initial\nmotion estimate is highly uncertain, but estimated to be 285/5 kt.\nThe cyclone is still embedded within weak steering flow, and all of\nthe global models forecast that it will remain so for the entirety\nof the forecast period.  While the spread is fairly high, in general\nthe models still forecast that a deep-layer trough well to the north\nof the depression should allow for a slow northward drift after 48\nh.  The NHC track forecast remains close to the corrected consensus\nHCCA, and is fairly close to the previous forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 15.8N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Max Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nThe center of Max has continued to move inland over southern Mexico\nsince the previous advisory. The satellite and radar presentation\nhas degraded significantly during the past few hours and the\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory.\nRapid weakening is expected overnight while Max moves farther\ninland, and the small tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate\nover the high terrain of southern Mexico early Friday.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 085/6 kt. Max is being steered\neastward around the north side of a mid-level ridge that extends\nsouthwestward from Central America.  The cyclone should continue\nmoving on this general heading and speed until dissipation occurs\non Friday.\n\nThe primary threat from Max is heavy rainfall and flooding over\nportions of southern Mexico.  Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10\ninches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches, are expected over the\nMexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash\nfloods and mudslides are possible.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 16.8N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 16.8N  97.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017\n\nThe large circulation of Norma was well-defined in late afternoon\nvisible satellite images, however, the colder convective cloud tops\nremain fragmented in infrared satellite imagery.  Since the\nconvective banding has not significantly improved this evening, the\nDvorak data T-numbers have remained about the same as this\nafternoon, and the initial intensity of 40 kt is maintained for\nthis advisory.\n\nRecent satellite fixes show that Norma is moving slowly northward\nor 360/5 kt.  A large high pressure area over northern Mexico and\nan associated ridge that extends southwestward across the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula should keep Norma on a slow northward track\nduring the next couple of days.  After that time, the model spread\nsignificantly increases with the ECMWF and UKMET models turning\nNorma west-northwestward, taking it west or southwest of Baja\nCalifornia.  The GFS and HWRF weaken the ridge and move Norma\nnorthward across Baja California Sur ahead of a mid-latitude trough\nthat deepens southwest of southern California.  The NHC forecast\ncontinues to follow the latter scenario since it is favored by the\nHFIP corrected consensus model and is also fairly close to the\nTVCN consensus aid.  The updated track forecast is similar to the\nprevious advisory, but the confidence in the track forecast remains\nquite low due to the usually large model disagreement.\n\nNorma is forecast to remain within a favorable environment of low\nvertical wind shear and over warm water, however, the large and\nsprawling structure of the tropical cyclone may temper the\nintensification rate in the short-term.  As a result, the updated\nNHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than the previous advisory\nthrough 72 hours, and it is between the ICON intensity consensus\nand the slightly more aggressive HCCA consensus. Land interaction\nand increasing southwesterly shear is likely to lead to weakening\nlater in the period.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0300Z 18.3N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  15/1200Z 18.7N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/0000Z 19.2N 109.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  16/1200Z 19.7N 109.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  17/0000Z 20.6N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  18/0000Z 22.7N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  19/0000Z 25.1N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  20/0000Z 27.5N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":40,"Date":"2017-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nJose is showing signs of becoming better organized.  The low-level\ncenter is embedded well within a growing central dense overcast\n(CDO).  Despite the improved appearance of Jose, the Dvorak\nclassifications are largely unchanged since 6 hours ago, so the\nintensity has been held at 60 kt.  There has been no change in any\nof the intensity guidance, so I see no reason to substantially\nchange the intensity forecast.  The new NHC intensity forecast is\nvery close to the multi-model consensus, and continues to show Jose\nregaining hurricane status later today.  Beginning around 72 h, an\nincrease in shear should bring an end to intensification, and will\nprobably cause Jose to weaken.  Once again, some of the global\nmodels suggest that Jose will remain a tropical cyclone through day\n5, but that extratropical transition could begin around that time.\nIf that happens, baroclinic forcing could help maintain the\nintensity of Jose, even as the shear increases.\n\nBecause the low-level circulation center of Jose is hidden beneath\nthe CDO, the initial position and heading are fairly uncertain.  My\nbest estimate of the current motion is 290/7 kt.  Despite the\ninitial motion uncertainty, the global models are coming into better\nagreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with\nthe other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S.\nThat said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west\ntrack, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi\nin that direction.  My new forecast is near the HFIP corrected\nconsensus, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast\ncoast of the United States, and will spread northward along the\nmid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days.  These\nswells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions.\n\n2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions\nof the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward\nto New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts\nmight be or where they could occur.  Interests along U.S. east coast\nfrom North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the\nprogress of Jose during the next several days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 25.9N  68.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 26.4N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 27.4N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 28.3N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 29.4N  72.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 32.2N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z 35.0N  72.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  20/0600Z 38.0N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized\nseveral hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time,\nthe structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that\nthe winds are still 30 kt.  Currently, the cyclone is embedded\nwithin a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast\ncalls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days.  However,\nthe global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large\nupper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high\nshear over the cyclone by day 4.  This should result in weakening as\nindicated in the forecast.\n\nSatellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is\nmoving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt.  The depression is\nbeing steered by the subtropical ridge to the north.  The same\ntrough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the\nsubtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the\nwest-northwest beyond 3 days.  The NHC track is very close to HFIP\ncorrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These\ntwo models have been performing very well so far this season.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 10.6N  27.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 11.0N  28.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 11.1N  30.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 11.2N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 11.3N  32.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 12.2N  35.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z 13.5N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  20/0600Z 15.0N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nJust like it has on several previous occasions already, convection\nhas decreased near the center of the depression.  That said, the\nfact that there even is deep convection near the center is still an\nimprovement compared to 24 hours ago.  The estimated intensity\nremains 30 kt based on an average of TAFB and SAB Dvorak\nclassifications.  There is no change in the reasoning behind the\nintensity forecast, and if convection near the center of the\ndepression can persist, the cyclone may finally begin to slowly\nintensify.  The intensity forecast is still based on a selective\nconsensus of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF, since the significant\nintensification shown by the HMON and COAMPS models seems unlikely,\ngiven the current structure of the cyclone.\n\nA couple recent microwave images indicate that the center remains\nsomewhat ill-defined.  My best estimate of the initial motion is\n270/4 kt, but this is based in part on continuity from the previous\nadvisory.  Little change was required to the track forecast since\nthe depression remains embedded within weak steering flow and is not\nexpected to move very much throughout the 5 day period.  The models\ncontinue to show a slow northward drift in a couple of days,\nfollowed by a slow turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge\nbegins to build to the northwest.  My forecast is close to HCCA, but\ngives a little extra weight to the ECMWF since it seems to have\nperformed well for the depression so far.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 15.9N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Max","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP162017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Max Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162017\n400 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nThe high terrain of Mexico has disrupted Max's circulation and the\nsystem has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure. Surface\nobservations indicate that winds associated with the low are\nbarely 25 kt. The remnants of Max will probably continue moving\nslowly eastward until dissipation later today.\n\nThe remnants of Max are still expected to produce heavy rain in\nthe states of Guerrero and Oaxaca.\n\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\non Max.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF MAX\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS OF MAX\n 24H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern continues to be well organized and convection has\nbeen gradually increasing, primarily in a band to the east of the\ncenter. Dvorak T-numbers and an ASCAT pass over the cyclone indicate\nthat the initial intensity is 45 kt. With low shear prevailing and\nNorma moving over warm waters, gradual strengthening is forecast.\nNorma is expected to become a hurricane before it approaches the\nBaja California peninsula.\n\nNorma appears to be moving very slowly toward the north at about 2\nkt.  Steering currents are weak and are provided by a weak ridge of\nhigh pressure over Mexico.  This flow is not expected to change\nmuch, so Norma should continue to move very slowly.  There was a\nchange in track guidance tonight, and most of the models shifted a\nlittle bit westward, primarily beyond 3 days.  On this basis, the\nNHC forecast was also adjusted westward.  The latter portion of the\nforecast, however, is highly uncertain since the track models\ndiverge significantly. The NHC track forecast follows the HFIP\ncorrected consensus, HCCA, and the multi-model simple consensus as\nwell.\n\nA Hurricane Watch will likely be necessary for portions of the\nsouthern Baja California peninsula later today.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/0900Z 18.6N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  15/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  16/0600Z 19.4N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  16/1800Z 20.0N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  17/0600Z 20.6N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  18/0600Z 22.8N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  19/0600Z 24.5N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  20/0600Z 26.3N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":41,"Date":"2017-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that a ragged eye is trying to form with\nJose, although microwave data show that any eyewall features are\nbroken.  Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose is close to becoming a\nhurricane again, but since an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\nwill be there in a couple hours, it is best to leave the wind speed\n60 kt for now.  Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for\nintensification, as water vapor images show a noticeable improvement\nin outflow compared to yesterday.  The light-shear window should be\nshort lived, since southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by\nall models on Sunday.  Thus some intensification is shown up to\nthat day, with a gradual weakening forecast after the weekend due to\ndecreasing SSTs and shear.  Little change was made to the previous\nintensity forecast.\n\nJose has turned northwestward overnight at about 8 kt.  A west-\nnorthwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the\nstorm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic\nridge.  Jose is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and continue in\nthat direction through Tuesday as it moves between the ridge and a\nsmall trough over the southeastern United States. Model guidance\nremains in fairly good agreement with the track of Jose, although\nthe GFS-based guidance is a lot faster than the UKMET or ECMWF\nmodels.  The new forecast is about the same as the previous one,\nnear the corrected-consensus guidance.  It is important to note that\nthe average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225\nmiles, respectively.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast\ncoast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the\nmid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the\nnext few days.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and\nrip current conditions.\n\n2. Although the center of Jose is currently forecast to pass well\neast of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-\nforce winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could\napproach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday.  Farther north\nalong the U.S. east coast, it is too soon to determine if any other\ndirect impacts from Jose will occur.  Interests along the U.S. east\ncoast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress\nof Jose during the next several days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 26.5N  69.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 27.1N  70.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 28.1N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 29.1N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 30.4N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 33.3N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 36.1N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 39.5N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nThe depression hasn't changed much in organization since the last\nadvisory, with curved bands primarily in the southern semicircle due\nto some northerly shear.  Dvorak estimates range from 25 to 35 kt,\nso the initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt.  This is an uncertain\nestimate because ASCAT has not sampled the cyclone or its precursor\nsystem in quite some time.  While the depression is forecast to be\nover warm waters for the 5-day period, westerly shear is likely to\nincrease by early next week due to a large trough over the east-\ncentral Atlantic.  Until day 3, the system should be experiencing\nlight or moderate shear, which would favor gradual strengthening.\nThe model guidance has backed off some since the last advisory, so\nthe wind speed forecast is decreased at long range.  However, the\nnew NHC prediction still lies on the high side of the guidance.\n\nThe depression is slowing down, and is now moving west-northwestward\nat 9 kt.  A west or west-northwest track is anticipated for the\nnext several days while the system remains south of an increasingly\nskinny ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  At long range, the system\ncould turn more to the northwest or north as a trough deepens over\nthe east-central Atlantic.  A weaker cyclone, however, would tend to\nfeel less influence from the trough, and continue moving west-\nnorthwestward.  This is the solution suggested by the ECMWF and its\nensembles plus the HFIP corrected consensus models, and the latest\nNHC prediction stays just to the northeast of that guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 11.4N  28.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 11.7N  29.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 11.9N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 11.9N  32.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 12.1N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 13.2N  36.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 14.7N  41.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 16.5N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nThe depression has not really improved in organization, and there\nstill appears to be east-northeasterly shear displacing the deep\nconvection to the southwest of the center.  The intensity remains 30\nkt based on a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates.  The shear\nover the depression is expected to decrease soon, reaching a minimum\nin about 24-36 hours.  Therefore, some strengthening appears\nreasonable, and the depression may finally be able to become a\ntropical storm on Saturday.  An increase in easterly shear should\nlead to weakening by the end of the forecast period.  Some of the\nmodels contained in ICON seem overblown on the cyclone's\nintensification, so the NHC forecast is lower than the intensity\nconsensus and lies closest to the SHIPS model and HCCA.\n\nThe subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to\npush the cyclone slowly west-southwestward through 24 hours.  After\nthat time, a break in the ridge will develop, which should cause\nthe cyclone to drift northward through days 3 and 4.  A\nre-establishment of the ridge by day 5 should impart a faster\nwestward motion by the end of the forecast period.  Based on the\nlatest model guidance, the new NHC forecast is a little west of and\nfaster than the previous official forecast, especially on days 4\nand 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 15.9N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 15.5N 125.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 15.6N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 16.1N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 18.2N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nNorma has an elongated convective band that curls about three\nquarters of the way around the low-level center.  A well-defined\nlow-level ring was visible in recent 37-GHz SSMIS imagery,\nindicating that the cyclone's structure continues to improve.  The\ninitial intensity is raised to 55 kt based on a blend of Dvorak\nestimates which range from 50 kt (UW-CIMSS ADT) to 65 kt (TAFB).\n\nNorma is essentially drifting toward the north-northwest with an\ninitial motion of 340/2 kt.  There's not a whole lot more clarity\non Norma's eventual track compared to yesterday.  The most that can\nbe said is that Norma will continue to drift northwestward or\nnorthward for the next 24-36 hours.  After that time, there remains\nconsiderable spread in the track guidance.  The ECMWF and UKMET\nmodels, which maintain a stronger ridge over northwestern Mexico,\npush Norma northwestward to the west of the Baja California\npeninsula through day 5.  The GFS and HWRF models, as well as the\nconsensus aids, remain closer to the Baja California peninsula and\nshow a northeastward turn by day 5.  The NHC track forecast remains\nclose to the TVCN consensus and is a little slower than, but on top\nof, the previous NHC forecast.\n\nLow shear and warm ocean temperatures should foster continued\nstrengthening, with Norma forecast to become a hurricane by this\nevening.  Norma is then expected to continue strengthening through\n36 or 48 hours.  Some southwesterly shear could begin to affect the\ncyclone by day 3 as it approaches stronger mid-latitude westerly\nflow, and some weakening is forecast as Norma approaches the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.  The new NHC intensity forecast mirrors the\ntrend shown in the previous advisory, and is just a little higher\ndue to the updated initial intensity.  This forecast is generally\nclose to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus.\n\nA hurricane or tropical storm watch will likely be necessary for\nportions of the southern Baja California peninsula later today.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/1500Z 18.7N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  16/0000Z 18.9N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  16/1200Z 19.2N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  17/0000Z 19.9N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  17/1200Z 20.8N 110.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  18/1200Z 23.0N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  19/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  20/1200Z 26.5N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":42,"Date":"2017-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nAir Force reconnaissance data indicate that Jose has become a\nhurricane again, with a blend of the flight-level data and SFMR\nvalues giving an initial intensity of 65 kt.  Further strengthening\nis possible over the next day or two while the hurricane remains\nover warm waters with light-to-moderate shear.  By Sunday,\nsouthwesterly shear is forecast to increase, along with a gradual\ncooling of the SSTs.  These conditions should promote some\nweakening of Jose, although all of the guidance are showing a\nfairly large hurricane for the next several days.  The official\nforecast is close to the previous one for the first couple of days,\nthen is blended downward to the latest model consensus.\n\nJose continues moving northwestward, now at about 9 kt.  The\nhurricane should turn north-northwestward tomorrow and northward by\nSunday while it is steered around a western Atlantic ridge.  Jose is\nthen forecast to turn north-northeastward by Wednesday as it moves\nalong the northwestern side of that ridge.  The model guidance is in\nrelatively good agreement on the forecast track, but the ECMWF is\nslower than the rest of the guidance.  With the UKMET and its\nensemble speeding up from 6 hours ago, the official forecast is\nnudged toward the model consensus at long range, but is still on the\nslow side, resulting in little overall change to the previous\nforecast.  It is still important to note that the average NHC track\nerrors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.\n\nWhile most of the guidance keep the center of Jose offshore for the\nnext few days, all of the global models show the hurricane becoming\nrather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east of North\nCarolina. For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be needed\nfor a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast\ncoast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the\nmid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the\nnext few days.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and\nrip current conditions.\n\n2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the\nNorth Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are\nexpected to extend well west of the center and could approach the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks on Monday.  Farther north along the U.S.\neast coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is\nincreasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude\nand location.  Interests along the U.S. east coast from North\nCarolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through\nthe weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 27.1N  70.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 27.8N  71.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 28.8N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 29.9N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 31.4N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 33.9N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 36.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 40.0N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nThe depression has become less organized since earlier today with\nthe center now exposed to the north and northwest of the deep\nconvection due to northwesterly shear.  Dvorak data T-numbers have\ndecreased, but an average of the current intensity numbers of\n1.5 and 2.5 support maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 kt.\nAlthough the depression is forecast to move over warm water,\nmoderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air to the north\nof the cyclone is likely to prevent significant intensification.\nHowever, most of the intensity guidance shows some strengthening and\nthe depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within the\nnext day or two.  After that time, increasing westerly shear\nproduced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic\nis expected to weaken the system, and the tropical cyclone is now\nforecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 5.  The new NHC\nintensity forecast has been adjusted downward to be in better\nagreement with the various intensity consensus aids.\n\nThe depression has jogged a little northward this afternoon, but the\nlong-term motion is west-northwestward at about 10 kt.  The\ndepression is expected to move westward to west-northwestward to\nthe south of a narrow ridge over the eastern Atlantic over the\nweekend.  By early next week, the ridge is forecast to weaken as a\ndeep-layer trough becomes established over the east-central\nAtlantic.  This should cause the cyclone to gain some latitude\nlater in the forecast period.  The more northward initial position\nhas required a northward adjustment of the track forecast, but the\nNHC track remains along the southern side of the guidance envelope,\nin agreement with the typically reliable HFIP corrected consensus\nmodel.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 12.6N  29.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 12.8N  30.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 12.9N  32.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 13.0N  33.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 13.2N  34.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 14.6N  38.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 16.5N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 18.5N  46.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nA cluster of deep convection, albeit small, has become more\nconcentrated near the center of circulation, indicating that the\nshear has diminished.  However, a recent ASCAT pass indicated that\nthe maximum winds remain 30 kt.  The lower shear and warm sea\nsurface temperatures should allow the depression to gradually\nstrengthen over the next couple of days, although since dry air has\nbeen ingested into the circulation, that intensification will\nprobably be slow.  The new NHC forecast shows a slightly lower peak\nintensity compared to the previous forecast, following the latest\nmodel trends.  Weakening is likely by days 4 and 5, and the cyclone\nis forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at the end of the\nforecast period due to stronger shear and marginal sea surface\ntemperatures.\n\nThe depression has slowed down and is moving westward, or 270/3 kt.\nThe subtropical ridge is expected to push the depression west-\nsouthwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, but after that time,\na break in the ridge will allow the cyclone to turn northward\nthrough day 3.  A re-establishment of the ridge should cause the\ncyclone to turn back toward the west on days 4 and 5.  There were\nno significant changes required on this forecast package, and the\nNHC forecast generally lies close to the consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 16.0N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 15.8N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 16.0N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 16.5N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 17.7N 126.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 18.4N 126.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  20/1800Z 18.1N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nNorma's primary convective band continues to elongate and curls\nabout one and a half times around the circulation.  Objective and\nsubjective Dvorak estimates are wide ranging, going from 50 kt up\nto 77 kt, but since the deep convective cloud tops are not very\ncold, the initial intensity is raised conservatively to 60 kt.\nThis lower intensity is supported by recent ASCAT data, which only\nshowed maximum winds of 50 kt.\n\nThe environment appears conducive for continued gradual\nstrengthening.  Norma's large size argues against rapid\nintensification, but the cyclone should be able to at least\nsteadily strengthen during the next 36 hours or so.  Vertical\nshear begins to increase after that time, however, and Norma is\nlikely to weaken beginning in about 48 hours.  The HCCA guidance and\nthe ICON intensity consensus were notably lower on this cycle, and\nthe updated NHC forecast has begun to follow that trend, especially\non days 3 through 5.\n\nThe center has wobbled northwestward during the day, and the\ninitial motion estimate is 325/2 kt.  Norma should turn slowly\nnorthward during the next day or so, steered along the western\nperiphery of the subtropical ridge.  The track models continue to\nplay the same tune, with the ECMWF and UKMET models on the far\nwestern side of the guidance envelope and the HWRF and GFS on the\neastern side.  Since the overall trend in the guidance has been\nwestward, the new NHC track forecast leans left of the consensus\naids and is a little left of the previous forecast.\n\nThe 48-hour forecast track and wind radii are very close to the\nsouthern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  However, with the\npersistent westward shifts in the guidance, a tropical storm watch\ndoes not appear to be needed at this time.  We will assess future\nmodel trends for the possibility of a watch issuance later tonight\nor tomorrow.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  15/2100Z 18.9N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  16/0600Z 19.2N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  16/1800Z 19.6N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  17/0600Z 20.6N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  17/1800Z 21.6N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  18/1800Z 23.5N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  19/1800Z 25.0N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\n120H  20/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":43,"Date":"2017-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nSince the reconnaissance flight earlier this afternoon, convection\nwithin the inner-core of Jose has increased in coverage and\norganization.  A banding eye appears to be forming, and a warm spot\nis apparent in IR imagery near the center of the cyclone.  Dvorak\nclassifications at 0000 UTC still supported an intensity of 65 kt,\nbut given the increase in organization since then, the initial\nintensity has been increased to 70 kt.  Additional strengthening is\nstill expected for at least the next 24 to 36 h.  After that time,\nan increase in southwesterly shear and gradually cooling SSTs are\nstill expected to cap the intensification and eventually cause Jose\nto gradually weaken.  The official intensity forecast remains a\nlittle above the model consensus for the first 48 h, and is close\nafter that.\n\nJose continues to move toward the northwest, and the initial motion\nestimate is 305/8 kt.  The main source of uncertainty in the track\nforecast is at days 4 and 5, since the global models disagree on the\nspeed at which Jose will move northward along the western edge of\nthe subtropical ridge.  The GFS continues to show a faster movement,\nwhich allows Jose to pass very close to the U.S. east coast before\nan approaching trough forces the cyclone to turn more toward the\nnortheast.  On the other hand, the ECMWF shows a slower track, so\nthe trough steers the hurricane farther east.  The NHC forecast has\nnot been changed substantially and is still just a touch slower than\nthe model consensus, out of respect to the ECMWF.  When the 00Z\nECMWF and UKMET models become available tonight, it could shed more\nlight on the future speed of the hurricane.  It is still important\nto note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about\n175 and 225 miles, respectively, and this error could be in the\nspeed of the hurricane (along track error).\n\nWhile the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore\nfor the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane\nbecoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east\nof North Carolina.  For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be\nneeded for a portion of the North Carolina coast tomorrow.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast\ncoast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the\nmid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the\nnext few days.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and\nrip current conditions.\n\n2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the\nNorth Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are\nexpected to extend well west of the center and could approach the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks on Monday.  Farther north along the U.S.\neast coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is\nincreasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude\nand location.  Interests along the U.S. east coast from North\nCarolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through\nthe weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 27.4N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 28.1N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 29.2N  72.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 30.6N  72.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 32.0N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 34.6N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 37.5N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  21/0000Z 41.0N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nThe overall organization of the tropical depression has changed\nlittle since this afternoon.  The center remains exposed to the\nnorth and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a\nslight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within\nthe past hour or two.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which\nis in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and\nSAB.  The depression is forecast to remain within an area of\nmoderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36\nhours while it moves over warm water.  Therefore, only slight\nstrengthening is indicated over the weekend.  After that time,\nincreasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it\nis expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast\nperiod.\n\nThe depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and\nthe initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change\nto the track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone should move westward\nto west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the\neastern Atlantic through Sunday.  The global models indicate that\nthe ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough\nforms over the east-central Atlantic.  This is expected to result in\na slightly more poleward track later in the period.  The updated NHC\nforecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but\nleans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since\nthe typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are\nalong the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 12.8N  30.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 12.8N  31.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 12.9N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 13.0N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 13.3N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 15.0N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 17.2N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  21/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 PM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nFor the past several days, convection has developed repeatedly near\nthe center of the depression, only to dissipate a few hours later.\nThis trend has continued today, and the depression is currently at a\nconvective minimum.  The intensity has been held at 30 kt, based on\nearlier ASCAT data.  Despite the lack of intensification so far,\nmost of the guidance continues to show that the depression will\nbecome a tropical storm sometime in the next couple of days.  Only\nthe LGEM keeps the system weak throughout the forecast, though so\nfar that has been a good forecast.  For now, my forecast continues\nto follow the intensity consensus and shows very gradual weakening\nover the next couple of days.  Given the low shear and moderate\nSSTs, it would still be a little surprising if the depression never\nstrengthens.\n\nThe depression continues to slow down, and is now drifting westward\nat about 2 kt.  Very little change has been made to the track\nforecast, and the global models continue to show little motion for\nthe next day or so while the cyclone remains trapped in weak\nsteering flow.  After about 24 h, a slow turn toward the north is\nexpected in response to a mid-level trough located well to the\nnorth.  A turn back toward the west should occur once the\nsubtropical ridge becomes re-established around day 4.  The NHC\nforecast remains near the various consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 16.0N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 15.9N 125.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 15.9N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 16.3N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 16.8N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 18.0N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 18.5N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  21/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norma","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norma Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017\n\nInfrared satellite imagery indicates that banding associated with\nNorma has increased during the past few hours.  The convective cloud\ntops have cooled and the band surrounding the center has become a\nlittle more solid with the formation of a ragged banding eye. Dvorak\ndata T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 4.0, and with the recent\nincrease in organization the initial wind speed is increased to 65\nkt. Norma becomes the eighth hurricane in the eastern Pacific this\nseason.\n\nNorma should remain over warm water and within a low shear\nenvironment during the next 24 to 36 h.  These conditions favor\nstrengthening, but the large size of Norma is likely to keep the\nintensification rate in check.  Increasing vertical shear and cooler\nwaters are expected to impart gradual weakening after 48 hours.  The\nlatest NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory\nand is close to the SHIPS guidance.\n\nNorma has been moving slowly north-northwestward, with an initial\nmotion estimate of 335/2 kt.  The hurricane is forecast to move\nslowly northward during the next couple of days, while it remains\nalong the western side of a mid-level ridge.  After that time, the\nECMWF develops a narrow ridge to the north of Norma which causes the\nhurricane to turn northwestward.  Meanwhile, the GFS keeps Norma on\na north track over the Baja California peninsula. The trend of the\ntrack guidance has been westward during the past several cycles, so\nthe NHC forecast lies slightly west of the consensus, and closer to\nthe ECMWF that has been more consistent over the past few runs.\nGiven the large spread in the guidance later in the period, the\nconfidence in the track forecast after 48 hours remains low.\n\nThe 48-hour forecast track and wind radii are very close to the\nsouthern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  However, with the\npersistent westward shifts in the guidance, a tropical storm watch\ndoes not appear to be needed at this time.  We will assess future\nmodel trends for the possibility of a watch issuance later tonight\nor tomorrow.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0300Z 19.0N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  16/1200Z 19.3N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  17/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  17/1200Z 21.0N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  18/0000Z 22.0N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  19/0000Z 23.7N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  20/0000Z 24.6N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  21/0000Z 25.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":44,"Date":"2017-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  44\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nNOAA buoy 41047 has been very helpful in determining the position\nand central pressure of Jose this morning.  The center of Jose\npassed just north of the buoy around 0500 UTC, and a surface\npressure of 986 mb with 20-30 kt of winds was measured.  Since  the\nbuoy did not sample the stronger northeast quadrant of the storm,\nthe initial intensity has been held at 70 kt.  Another\nreconnaissance flight later today will provide a better estimate of\nthe max winds.\n\nThere is some indication of northeasterly shear inhibiting the\noutflow of Jose, which is restricted in the northwest quadrant.\nSince it appears to be negatively affecting the cyclone, the shear\nmay inhibit any more substantial intensification. The intensity\nguidance is a little lower than before, so the new NHC forecast has\nbeen lowered slightly, and is now close to the intensity consensus\nthroughout the forecast.\n\nJose has moved just a little to the southwest of the expected track,\nand the initial motion remains 305/8 kt.  However, Jose is still\nexpected to begin turning toward the north later today, so no\nsignificant changes were needed for the early part of the forecast.\nMore importantly, the GFS and ECMWF have met in the middle of their\nprevious solutions, and have come into much better agreement on the\nforward speed of the hurricane beyond day 2.  The new track forecast\nis very close to a 50/50 blend of the GFS and ECMWF.  Although\nconfidence in the track forecast is a little higher due to the model\nagreement, it is still important to note that the average NHC track\nerrors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively.\n\nWhile the official track forecast keeps the center of Jose offshore\nfor the next few days, all of the global models show the hurricane\nbecoming rather large by late this weekend as it moves to the east\nof North Carolina.  For that reason, a tropical storm watch may be\nneeded for a portion of the North Carolina coast later today.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast\ncoast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the\nmid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the\nnext few days.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and\nrip current conditions.\n\n2. Although the center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the\nNorth Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm-force winds are\nexpected to extend well west of the center and could approach the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks on Monday.  Farther north along the U.S.\neast coast, the chance of some direct impacts from Jose is\nincreasing, but it is too soon to determine their exact magnitude\nand location.  Interests along the U.S. east coast from North\nCarolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose through\nthe weekend.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 27.9N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 28.6N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 29.7N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 31.2N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 32.9N  72.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 35.8N  71.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 39.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  21/0600Z 41.0N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nThe center of the depression continues to be located on the north\nside of a curved band of deep convection, and the outflow is only\nexpanding to the south and west. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed\nand support an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has the\nopportunity to become a tropical storm during the next 24 to 36\nhours before a pronounced upper-level trough digs southward over the\neastern Atlantic and brings strong northerly shear over the cyclone.\nThe NHC forecast shows some strengthening through Sunday, but\nweakening should begin thereafter.  The system should degenerate\ninto a remnant low in about 4 days.\n\nThe depression is moving westward at 6 kt, steered by a narrow\nmid-level ridge to the north. The same trough that is bringing the\nshear will likely further weaken the ridge to the north, and this\nshould result in a turn of the cyclone toward the west-northwest.\nThe NHC track is in the middle of the guidance envelope through 48\nhours, but after that time the forecast is uncertain since the\nguidance spreads out considerably. During that last period, the NHC\nforecast follows the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the trend of\nthe ECMWF.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 12.6N  32.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 12.6N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 12.6N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 12.7N  35.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 13.3N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 15.2N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 17.0N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  21/0600Z 18.0N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nAn ASCAT pass just before 0600 UTC indicated that the depression\nhas weakened a little bit.  Winds of only around 25 kt were present,\nand since the depression lacks a true inner core, I don't believe\nthat undersampling is a big concern at this time.  The initial\nintensity has therefore been lowered to 25 kt.  It is beginning to\nseem unlikely that the depression will become a tropical storm at\nany time.  The mid-level humidity and SSTs seem sufficient to only\nsupport continued pulsating convection and none of the guidance\nreally shows significant strengthening.  Since the environment is\nnot expected to change for the next 3 days, the new NHC intensity\nforecast keeps the cyclone as a tropical depression. Sometime\nbetween days 4 and 5, most of the dynamical models show the\ncyclone becoming a remnant low, though it could happen a little\nsooner than that.\n\nThe depression has continued to drift slowly westward.  There is\nno change to the forecast reasoning, and all of the models continue\nto show very little movement throughout the forecast period.  The\nNHC track forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, and\ndoesn't show the depression moving faster than 3 kt until after it\nbecomes a remnant low around day 5.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 15.8N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 15.7N 126.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 16.1N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 17.0N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 17.7N 126.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n120H  21/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norma","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norma Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nNorma has a broad circulation but lacks an inner core. The deep\nconvection has weakened a little bit and is occurring in a few\ncyclonically curved bands spiraling around the center. The initial\nintensity is kept at 65 kt in this advisory, but Dvorak numbers,\nboth objective and subjective, are decreasing. The environment is\nfavorable for strengthening and most of the models suggest that\nmodest intensification will occur. The NHC forecast follows such\nguidance.\n\nNorma has barely moved during the past several hours, but most of\nthe global models forecast the building of a mid-level high pressure\nsystem over the Gulf of Mexico, and this pattern should induce a\nslow northward motion during the next day or so. As the high builds\nwestward, it will force Norma to move on a more north-northwesterly\ntrack, parallel to the Baja California peninsula.  The confidence\nin the track forecast is good for the next day or two. After that\ntime, the guidance envelope expands considerably and becomes bounded\nby the easternmost GFS over Baja California and the westernmost\nECMWF over water. These two models are in competition once again.\n\nGiven that the circulation of Norma is large and tropical storm\nforce winds will likely reach the Baja California peninsula, the\ngovernment of Mexico has issued tropical storm warnings and watches\naccordingly.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/0900Z 19.0N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  16/1800Z 19.7N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.4N 110.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  17/1800Z 21.5N 110.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  18/0600Z 22.5N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  19/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  20/0600Z 24.0N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  21/0600Z 24.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":45,"Date":"2017-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nEarlier microwave data seemed to suggest that Jose's low-level\ncenter is displaced to the northwest of the mid-level microwave\neye, which is not surprising given that the various shear analyses\nindicate about 25 kt from the west-northwest.  The initial intensity\nis being held at 70 kt, pending the arrival of an Air Force Reserve\nHurricane Hunter aircraft this afternoon.\n\nThe shear over Jose is not expected to abate, and in fact, it could\nincrease further in the next 36 to 48 hours.  However, the hurricane\nwill remain over warm waters south of the Gulf Stream for the next\nthree days, and the intensity models suggest that it should be able\nto at least maintain its intensity, if not strengthen slightly.\nAfter day 3, the hurricane will move north of the Gulf Stream over\nmuch colder water, and that will likely lead to the system weakening\nto a tropical storm.  Although there will be a cold front\napproaching from the northwest by day 5, Jose still looks separated\nfrom the frontal zone at that point, and there is no appreciable\ninjection of baroclinic energy at that time to allow for\nstrengthening.\n\nBest I can tell, Jose is moving northwestward with an initial motion\nof 320/8 kt.  Jose will be moving around the western periphery of a\nmid-level high anchored to the east of Bermuda, which will cause it\nto turn northward and maintain that heading through day 3.  The\ntrack models are tightly clustered during this period, and there is\nrelatively high confidence in the NHC forecast.  After day 3, the\nmodels have come into much better agreement that Jose will become\nembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the NHC track forecast\nis faster than the previous one by day 5 in order to keep up with\nthe GFS and ECMWF.  Regardless, Jose's track and an expected\nincrease in size will likely lead to impacts along the mid-Atlantic\nand southern New England coasts in a few days.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North\nCarolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are\ncurrently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer\nBanks. However, an increase in the size of the storm or a westward\nadjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm\nconditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should\nmonitor the progress of Jose through Monday.\n\n2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.\ncoast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone\ncould cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to\nthe left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast\nfrom Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.\neast coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 28.8N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 29.5N  72.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 30.8N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 32.4N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 37.2N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 40.5N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 41.5N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number   7...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nCorrected to include missing word in intensity discussion\n\nDeep convection has increased in intensity and coverage since this\ntime yesterday, and a recent partial ASCAT pass from around 1100\nUTC indicated that the system is now producing tropical-storm-force\nwinds at least to the east of its center.  Based on these data, the\ndepression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee with maximum winds of\n35 kt.  Lee has been able to strengthen a little despite about 15\nkt of north-northwesterly shear.  The cyclone appears to be located\nin a sweet spot of relatively low shear, with much stronger upper-\nlevel westerly winds located not too far to the north, and it may be\nable to thread the needle of lower shear for another 36 hours or so.\nAfter that time, the westerlies drop southward, and Lee will likely\nbe hammered by 30 kt of westerly shear by 48 hours.  With all that\nin mind, Lee is forecast to strengthen only slightly over the next\nday or so, with weakening expected to begin by day 3.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and HCCA, and\nLee may ultimately degenerate into a remnant low by day 5.\n\nLee's initial motion is estimated to be 265/10 kt.  The storm is\nlocated to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it is expected\nto move generally westward or west-northwestward for the entire\nforecast period.  Although some of the track models are showing a\nmore pronounced poleward motion, Lee's relatively low intensity and\neventual weakening will likely keep it steered by lower-level flow.\nAs a result, the NHC track forecast is near the southern edge of\nthe guidance envelope, although not quite as far south as the ECMWF\nmodel.  This forecast is not too different from the previous one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 12.5N  33.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 12.4N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 12.5N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 12.9N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 13.6N  38.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 15.6N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 17.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 18.0N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located\nseveral hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better\norganized with curved banding features now better established.\nSince there is still no indication of a well-defined center and\nbecause tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of\nthe Leeward Islands, NHC has initiated advisories on this system as\na potential tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed is estimated\nto be 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB\nand SAB.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/19, but this is uncertain due to\nthe lack of a clear center.  A slower west-northwestward motion is\nexpected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge to the\nnorth of the system weakens but remains nearly stationary.  The NHC\ntrack forecast takes the system across the Leeward Islands in a few\ndays and then near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the end of\nthe forecast period.  It should be noted that confidence in the\ntrack and forward speed of this system is low due to the spread in\nthe models and the current lack of a well-defined center.\n\nThe disturbance is expected to be in environmental conditions\nconducive for strengthening during the next several days as the\nshear is expected to be 10 kt or less while the cyclone moves over\nwarm 29 deg C SSTs.  These conditions should allow for at least\nsteady strengthening, and the models unanimously show that trend.\nThe NHC intensity forecast is conservative for now, but does show\nthe system becoming a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by\nthe time it reaches the Leeward Islands.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The disturbance is expected to intensify and will likely bring\ntropical storm and hurricane conditions as well as flooding\nrainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles early next week. These\nconditions could also spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico\nby mid week. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress\nof this system and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 12.2N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\n 12H  17/0000Z 12.8N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM\n 24H  17/1200Z 13.6N  55.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 14.3N  56.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 15.0N  58.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 16.3N  61.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 17.6N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 18.7N  67.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with the depression has increased\nthis morning, with the low-level center estimated to be near the\nmiddle of the thunderstorm activity.  Based on the improved\norganization of the cloud pattern since the time of the ASCAT pass\novernight, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 30 kt.\n\nThe depression is over relatively warm SSTs and embedded in fairly\nlow wind shear conditions, but it also is situated in a dry\natmospheric environment.  These mixed factors should cause the\nsystem to remain relatively steady state for the next few days,\nthough it is possible that the cyclone becomes a tropical storm\nduring that time frame. Beyond a few days, the wind shear is\nexpected to increase and SSTs lower along the expected path.  These\nmore hostile conditions should cause the depression to weaken and\nbecome a remnant low in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is\nan update of the previous one, and in line with the bulk of the\nguidance.\n\nThe tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering\ncurrents. The models are in agreement that the depression should\nturn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves\nalong the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system\nloses convection, a turn back toward the west is predicted. Only\nminor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 15.8N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 15.9N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 16.3N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 16.9N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 17.6N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 18.2N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norma","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Norma Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nNorma displayed a large convective band that wrapped most of the way\naround the center overnight.  This band appears to be fragmenting\nthis morning, though a new rainband has developed closer to the\ncenter.  The Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from both SAB and TAFB\nremain 4.0 and thus the maximum winds are kept at 65 kt.  However,\nthe ADT and AMSU estimates are below hurricane force, so my initial\nintensity may be somewhat high.  An Air Force reconnaissance mission\nwill be investigating Norma around 20Z, so we should have a more\naccurate assessment of the intensity this afternoon.\n\nWhile the vertical shear is currently low and should remain that way\nfor the next few days, the hurricane no longer has a well-defined\noutflow channel to its south and the upper-level divergence appears\nto be less conducive.  Additionally, a prominent tongue of dry air\nseen in the total precipitable water imagery has wrapped around the\nsouthern semicircle about 200 nm from the center.  Model guidance\nsuggests that the mid-level humidities should dry substantially\nwhile Norma encounters increasingly cooler SSTs during the next few\ndays.  The official intensity forecast shows some slight\nintensification followed by a faster decay compared with the\nprevious advisory.  This forecast is based a blend of the LGEM\nstatistical and HWRF/COAMPS dynamical guidance.\n\nNorma continues to be nearly stationary, though a developing\ndeep-layer ridge over central Mexico/Gulf of Mexico should begin\nmoving the hurricane toward the north later today.  A motion toward\nthe north-northwest or northwest should then continue for about\nthree days.  By days 4 and 5, a substantially weaker Norma is\nanticipated to meander while located just west of southern Baja\nCalifornia.  The official track forecast is based upon the HFIP\nCorrected Consensus Approach and is slightly east of the previous\nadvisory for the next two days and then about the same thereafter.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/1500Z 19.3N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  17/0000Z 19.7N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  17/1200Z 20.8N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  18/0000Z 21.8N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  18/1200Z 22.6N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  19/1200Z 23.5N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  20/1200Z 24.0N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n120H  21/1200Z 24.5N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":46,"Date":"2017-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter made two passes through\nJose's center and found that the central pressure has dropped to\n973 mb.  A 700-mb flight-level wind of 82 kt was measured in an\nouter band to the northeast of the center, but the highest observed\nSFMR wind was 65 kt.  Based on these data, Jose's initial intensity\nis held at 70 kt.  The lack of significant intensification in spite\nof the lower central pressure is probably due to an expansion of the\nwind field, which was observed by the reconnaissance aircraft.\n\nThe aircraft fixes suggest that the center, or at least the\nmid-level center, has been reforming or meandering.  Smoothing\nthrough the fixes suggests that Jose is moving slowly northward, or\n360/5 kt.  This motion, with some acceleration, is expected during\nthe next 3 days while Jose moves around the western periphery of\nthe subtropical ridge.  The cyclone is then expected to turn\nnortheastward and accelerate by the end of the forecast period when\nit enters the mid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC track forecast has\nshifted slightly eastward to account for the updated initial\nposition, and it lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.  It\nshould be noted that a few models, such as the ECMWF and UKMET, lie\nwest of the forecast track, which does not rule out the possibility\nthat Jose may move closer to the U.S. east coast than shown in the\nofficial forecast.\n\nJose has a short period of time, perhaps 24 hours or so, when the\nshear remains steady and there is an opportunity for some slight\nstrengthening.  However, the shear is expected to increase over 30\nkt after 24 hours, which should cause Jose to gradually weaken.  The\nhurricane is likely to move north of the Gulf Stream in about 72\nhours, and the official intensity forecast calls for Jose to weaken\nto a tropical storm at that time, and continue weakening as it moves\neastward away from New England.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North\nCarolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are\ncurrently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer\nBanks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a\nwestward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm\nconditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should\nmonitor the progress of Jose through Monday.\n\n2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.\ncoast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone\ncould cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to\nthe left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast\nfrom Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.\neast coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 28.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 29.6N  71.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 30.9N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 32.3N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 33.8N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 37.1N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 40.0N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nLee has changed little in organization since the last advisory, and\nthe low-level center appears to be located along the northern edge\nof a persistent cluster of deep convection.  Dvorak estimates have\nnot changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt based on\nthe earlier ASCAT data.\n\nLee is moving westward, or 270/9 kt, to the south of a weak\nmid-level ridge, and it should maintain that trajectory for the\nnext 24 hours.  After that time, a break in the ridge should\ndevelop, but the weak nature of the cyclone should prevent it from\nturning too sharply toward the northwest.  The updated NHC track\nforecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, and it\ncontinues to lie south of the various consensus aids, closest to\nthe HCCA model.\n\nSome slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so,\nbut continued north-northwesterly shear is likely to prevent\nsignificant intensification.  Weakening is anticipated from 48\nhours onward due to increasingly hostile shear, and Lee is likely\nto become a depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low\nby day 5.  The intensity models have come down a little on this\ncycle, and the NHC forecast is actually a little generous, staying\nclose to the SHIPS model along the upper bound of the guidance\nenvelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 12.6N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 12.6N  35.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 12.7N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 13.2N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 13.9N  39.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 15.9N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 17.5N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 18.5N  51.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the system located several hundred\nmiles east of the Lesser Antilles has become much better organized\nthroughout the day.  The low-level center of circulation is now\nwell defined, and banding features have become better established in\nall quadrants.  The initial wind speed is increased to 45 kt, in\nagreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB.  This makes the\nsystem a tropical storm, Maria becomes the thirteenth named storm\nin the Atlantic basin this season.\n\nMaria is moving quickly westward at 17 kt on the south side of a\nmid-level ridge.  This ridge is expected to remain in place but\nweaken some, which should cause Maria to move west-northwestward at\na progressively slower pace through the forecast period.  The\nmodels are in fair agreement, and the NHC official track forecast\nis closest to the HCCA model.  This forecast takes the core of\nMaria near the Leeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, and close to the\nVirgin Islands and Puerto Rico in about 4 days.\n\nThe tropical storm is located within conducive environmental\nconditions of low wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and over\nwarm 29 deg C SSTs.  Since these conditions are not expected to\nchange much, steady or even rapid strengthening is likely during the\nnext 3 to 4 days.  Slight weakening is predicted by the end of the\nforecast period due to some land interaction and a slight increase\nin wind shear.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised significantly\nfrom the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest\nguidance.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the\nLeeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous\nwind, storm surge and rainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical\nstorm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles,\nand additional watches will likely be issued tonight and Sunday.\n\n2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and\nhurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as\nSunday.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of\nMaria and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 12.3N  52.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 13.0N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 13.9N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 14.6N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 15.2N  59.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 16.5N  62.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 17.9N  65.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 19.5N  68.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nThe system has been maintaining a small area of deep convection\nnear the low-level center for the past several hours.  The latest\nDvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from CIMSS at the\nUniversity of Wisconsin have increased, and now support raising the\ninitial intensity to 35 kt, making the system a tropical storm.\n\nOtis is expected to remain over 27 deg C waters and in a low\nwind shear environment for the next couple of days, and this should\nallow the cyclone to at least maintain its strength.  Beyond that\ntime, an increase in shear, drier air, and cooler waters along the\nexpected track should cause weakening, and Otis is now\nforecast to become a remnant low by day 4.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is slightly higher than the previous one, based on the\nhigher initial intensity.\n\nThe tropical cyclone continues to drift westward in weak steering\ncurrents.  The models remain in agreement that the storm should\nturn slowly northward during the next day or two when it moves\nalong the west side of a weak mid-level ridge. Once the system\nloses convection, a turn back toward the west or west-southwest is\npredicted.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the west of the\nprevious one in the short term to account for the more westward\ninitial position.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 15.9N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 16.0N 127.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 16.4N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 17.2N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 17.9N 127.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 18.0N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 17.0N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  21/1800Z 15.8N 133.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nThe convective stucture has continued to degrade during the day\nwith symmetric, but ill-defined bands in place within 180 nm of the\ncenter.  An Air Force reconnaissance mission this afternoon has\nmeasured peak flight-level winds of only 58 kt, which supports an\ninitial intensity of at most 55 kt. Thus Norma is downgraded to a\ntropical storm.\n\nWhile the vertical shear is currently low and should remain that way\nfor the next couple of days, the lack of motion over the last days\nwould likely induce ocean upwelling and cooler waters underneath the\ncore of Norma.  Additionally, a prominent tongue of dry air seen in\nthe total precipitable water imagery has wrapped around the southern\nsemicircle about 200 nm from the center. Model guidance suggests\nthat the mid-level humidities should dry substantially while Norma\nencounters increasingly cooler SSTs during the next few days.\nAdditionally the vertical shear is now anticipated to substantially\nincrease around days 4 or 5 (if the GFS model is correct) or a day\nor two earlier (if the ECMWF/UKMET models are correct).  The\nofficial intensity forecast thus no longer indicates any\nintensification, especially given the reduced initial maximum winds.\nCorrespondingly, a faster decay is shown compared with the previous\nadvisory and Norma is expected to become a remnant low in five days,\nif not sooner.  This forecast is close to the mean of the tightly\npacked statistical and dynamical intensity guidance.\n\nNorma is moving toward the north at about 3 kt, as it is being\nsteered by a developing deep-layer ridge over central Mexico/Gulf of\nMexico. A motion toward the north-northwest or northwest should then\ncontinue for about three days.  By days 4 and 5, a substantially\nweaker Norma is anticipated to meander while located just west of\nsouthern Baja California.  The official track forecast is based upon\nthe HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and is about the same as the\nearlier advisory through 48 hours and shifted westward beyond that\ntime.\n\nObservations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters show that Norma\nhas a smaller tropical-storm-force wind radii than earlier\nestimated.  The official size foreast is based upon the RVCN\nmulti-model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  16/2100Z 19.7N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  17/0600Z 20.4N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  17/1800Z 21.4N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  18/0600Z 22.2N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  18/1800Z 22.9N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  19/1800Z 23.6N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  20/1800Z 23.8N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  21/1800Z 24.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":47,"Date":"2017-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nJose's cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous\nadvisory.  The center is embedded within a fairly symmetric CDO but\ndeep convection and the overall cloud shield is elongated\nnortheastward due to some westerly shear.  The latest satellite\nintensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS range from 60 kt\nto 77 kt.  Since the earlier aircraft data suggest that Jose's\nintensity was near the midpoint of this range, a 70-kt initial\nwind speed is maintained for this advisory.\n\nThe satellite fixes are little to the east of the previously\nestimated positions, but given the westerly shear the surface\ncenter is likely located a little west of these, resulting in\nan initial motion estimate of 360/5 kt.  Jose is forecast to move\nnorthward at a slightly faster pace around the western portion of\na subtropical ridge over the next few days.  After that time, Jose\nis predicted to turn northeastward, then eastward as it enters the\nmid-latitude westerly flow.  The 18Z GFS has trended a bit slower\nat days 4 and 5, so the NHC track forecast has been adjusted\naccordingly.  The ECMWF and UKMET models remain to the west of the\nofficial forecast and it is still possible that Jose will track\nsomewhat closer to the U.S. east coast than indicated here.\n\nJose still has a small window of opportunity to strengthen before\nwesterly shear increases, however, most of the intensity guidance\nnow calls for gradual weakening to begin within 12-24 hours.\nDecreasing sea surface temperatures after 72 hours should cause an\nadditional decrease in intensity later in the period.  The NHC\nintensity prediction is near the higher statistical guidance during\nthe first couple of days, and near the global model guidance later\nin the period.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North\nCarolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are\ncurrently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer\nBanks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a\nwestward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm\nconditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should\nmonitor the progress of Jose through Monday.\n\n2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.\ncoast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone\ncould cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to\nthe left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts. Interests along the U.S. east coast\nfrom Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.\neast coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 29.2N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 30.0N  71.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 31.4N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 32.9N  71.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 34.4N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 37.7N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 40.2N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  22/0000Z 40.5N  64.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nLee has a classic shear pattern appearance in satellite imagery this\nevening, with the center on the northern edge of a large convective\nburst due to the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly vertical\nshear.  Two recent ASCAT overpasses indicate that the maximum winds\nare about 35 kt in the southern semicircle, with no winds of\ntropical-storm-force in the northern semicircle.  The initial\nintensity of 35 kt is based on the scatterometer data.\n\nThe initial motion is 275/7. Lee is moving along the south side of a\nweak mid-level ridge.  After about 24 h, the ridge is expected to\nweaken and allow Lee to turn west-northwestward, a motion that\nshould continue through the forecast period.  The new track forecast\nis similar to the previous forecast and lies mainly between the\nECMWF and the HFIP corrected consensus models.\n\nLee is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds through the\nforecast period, with vertical shear values likely to exceed 30 kt\nafter 48 h.  While some short-term spin up due to convective bursts\ncannot be ruled out, overall the environment is not favorable for\nsignificant strengthening.  Indeed, the intensity guidance calls\nfor gradual weakening, and the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the\ncyclone to completely dissipate by 120 h.  The new intensity\nforecast is weaker than the previous forecast and now calls for Lee\nto degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 12.8N  34.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 12.9N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 13.1N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 13.7N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 14.4N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 16.0N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 17.5N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/0000Z 19.0N  52.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nMaria has become a little better organized this evening, with\nsatellite imagery showing the formation of a small convective area\nnear the center that may reflect the formation of an inner wind\ncore. However, this has not yet resulted in intensification, as\nvarious subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates\nremain about 45 kt.\n\nThe longer-term initial motion is 280/14, while recent satellite\nimagery suggests the system may be turning a little more to the\nright.  A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected\nto gradually weaken through the forecast period, which would\nallow Maria to move generally west-northwestward with a decrease\nin forward speed during the next five days.  The track guidance is\ntightly clustered, and the new forecast track is nudged only\nslightly to the left of the previous track based on the initial\nlocation.  The forecast continues to take the core of Maria near the\nLeeward Islands in 48 to 72 hours, close to the Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico in about 96 hr, and near eastern Hispaniola at about\n120 h.\n\nMaria is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture,\nlight shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the\nnext 4 days.  This should result in steady to rapid intensification.\nThe new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in\ncalling for Maria to become a hurricane in 24 h and a major\nhurricane in 72 h, and it lies at the upper edge of the intensity\nguidance.  However, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility,\nand it would be no surprise if Maria got significantly stronger than\ncurrently forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the\nLeeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous\nwind, storm surge and rainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical\nstorm watches have been issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles,\nand additional watches will likely be issued on Sunday.\n\n2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and\nhurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as\nSunday.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of\nMaria and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 12.5N  53.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 13.1N  55.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 13.9N  57.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 14.6N  59.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 15.3N  60.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 16.5N  63.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 18.0N  66.5W  110 KT 125 MPH...COAST OF PUERTO RICO\n120H  22/0000Z 19.5N  69.0W  100 KT 115 MPH...OVER WATER\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 PM PDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nConvection has increased near the center of Otis since the last\nadvisory, and an AMSR-2 pass around 2030 UTC indicated that the\ntropical storm was beginning to develop an inner-core.  A consensus\nof Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports\nraising the initial intensity to 40 kt.\n\nOtis is expected to remain over moderate SSTs and within a low-shear\nenvironment for the next 24 to 36 h.  Given that the storm finally\nappears to be supporting persistent deep convection near the center,\nat least a little more intensification seems likely, and this is\nsupported by the statistical-dynamical models.  After about 48 h,\nlower SSTs and some increase in shear should cause the cyclone to\ngradually weaken.  The new intensity forecast is a little higher\nthan the previous forecast for the first 48 h, but still shows Otis\nbecoming a remnant low by 96 h.\n\nOtis has continued to move very slowly westward, and has not yet\nturned northward, toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  All\nof the global models still indicate that this turn is imminent, but\nregardless of when exactly it occurs, little overall movement is\nexpected for the next 72 h.  Beyond that time, a faster\nwest-southwest track is still anticipated as the remnants of Otis\nbecome steered primarily by the low-level tradewinds. Little change\noverall has been made to the track forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 15.9N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 16.3N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 17.9N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 18.3N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 18.3N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 17.1N 131.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/0000Z 16.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017\n\nNorma's structure hasn't changed over the past 6 hours.  A sprawling\nband of deep convection extends well out from the center, but the\ntropical storm still appears to lack an inner core.  The intensity\nhas been held at 55 kt based on the Dvorak current intensity\nestimate from TAFB, but that could be generous given that the\nearlier reconnaissance flight struggled to find winds that high, and\nthe the Final-T number from TAFB was a little lower.\n\nNorma has continued moving slowly north, but a turn toward the\nnorth-northwest is expected overnight.  The global models agree for\nthe next 2 days that a deep-layer ridge extending westward over\ncentral Mexico will keep Norma on a north-northwest or northwest\nheading.  Beyond that time, there is considerable spread in the\nguidance.  The ECMWF forecasts that the ridge will weaken\nsufficiently to cause Norma to stall off the coast of the Baja\nCalifornia Peninsula.  On the other hand, the GFS maintains the\nridge long enough to force Norma farther north, and into a fairly\ndry and stable environment. The official forecast splits these\nscenarios, and is based mostly on the TVCX consensus aid.\n\nRecent total precipitable water imagery suggests that some dry air\nmay be wrapping into the circulation, and this will likely\ncontribute to further weakening.  The reliable intensity models all\nindicate that steady weakening will occur throughout the forecast\nperiod.  By day 5, SSTs below 26 C and very dry air should cause the\ntropical storm to become a remnant low.  If Norma takes the faster\nand farther north track of the GFS, it is likely that it will\nbecome a remnant low sooner than indicated.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0300Z 20.2N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  17/1200Z 20.9N 110.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  18/0000Z 21.8N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  18/1200Z 22.4N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  19/0000Z 22.7N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  20/0000Z 23.0N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/0000Z 23.5N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n120H  22/0000Z 24.5N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":48,"Date":"2017-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Jose continues to reveal little\nchange in the overall cloud structure since yesterday afternoon.\nThe 25-30 kt of westerly shear is inhibiting any further development\nof the inner core.  Cloud tops have warmed near the center and the\ncyclone appears to be tilted toward the northeast with height\nin earlier microwave images.  Dvorak satellite intensity estimates\nremain unchanged from the last advisory, and the initial\nintensity is held at 70 kt.  Due to the expected shear persisting\nthrough the entire forecast period, the statistical and dynamical\nintensity guidance no longer indicate any hint of strengthening,\neven in the short term.  Accordingly, The NHC forecast reflects\nlittle change in strength through the 48 hour period, then\nshows gradual weakening through 5 days.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 360/7 kt.  The\ncyclone is expected to continue on this northward track, along the\nwestern periphery of the Bermuda high, through 48 hours.\nAfterward, Jose should gradually turn north-northeastward to\nnortheastward on days 3 and 4.  Near the end of the forecast\nperiod, Jose is forecast to slowly turn eastward within the\nmid-latitude, mid-level westerly flow associated with shortwave\ntrough moving over the Canadian Maritimes.  The official forecast\nhas been adjusted slightly to the west, closer to the HFIP\nCorrected Consensus, and near a blend of the UKMET, and ECMWF which\nhave also shifted a bit westward.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North\nCarolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are\ncurrently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer\nBanks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a\nwestward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm\nconditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should\nmonitor the progress of Jose through Monday.\n\n2. While Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore of the U.S.\ncoast from Virginia northward to New England, the large cyclone\ncould cause some direct impacts to these areas and any deviation to\nthe left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts.  Interests along the U.S. east coast\nfrom Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the\nnorthern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and much of the U.S.\neast coast. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 30.0N  71.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 31.0N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 32.5N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 34.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 35.6N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 38.6N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 40.0N  67.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  22/0600Z 39.8N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nLee remains sheared this morning, with the center of circulation\njust beneath the northern edge of the cloud mass.  Consequently, the\ninitial intensity is held at 35 kt and agrees with the subjective\nDvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone is\nforecast to remain in an upper wind environment of strong\nwest-northwesterly shear through the forecast period.  The global\nand statistical models all show no intensification of Lee through 36\nhours or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend through day 5.\nIn fact, the GFS and ECMWF show dissipation in less than 4 days.\nOnly the HWRF hurricane model indicates modest strengthening around\nthe 48 hour period.  The official forecast is similar to the\nprevious package and reflects Lee degenerating into a remnant low in\n4 days.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt.  The\ncyclone is currently moving within the easterly mid-level flow\nproduced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north.  This ridge\nis forecast to erode in 36 hours, allowing Lee to gradually turn\nwest-northwestward and continue tracking in this fashion through 5\ndays.  A slight adjustment to the right of the previous advisory was\nmade to lie more closely to the HCCA technique and a blend of the\nECMWF and GFS global models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 13.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 13.1N  36.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 13.4N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 14.2N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 15.0N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 17.1N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 18.9N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/0600Z 20.3N  52.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nMaria's cloud pattern is becoming better organized with developing\nconvective banding features and a gradually expanding CDO.\nUpper-level outflow is only slightly restricted over the southern\nportion of the circulation.   The current intensity is set at 55\nkt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and\nSAB.  The environment should be conducive for continued\nstrengthening for the next several days with low shear, a warm\nocean and a fairly moist mid-tropospheric air mass.  The official\nintensity forecast follows the model consensus, but a more rapid\nintensification than indicated here is certainly possible over the\nnext couple of days.\n\nLatest center fixes indicate that the tropical cyclone is now\nmoving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.  A mid-level high pressure\narea to the north of Maria is forecast to weaken slightly over the\nnext several days.  This should result in a continued\nwest-northwestward motion with a slowing of forward speed.  The\nofficial track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF\npredictions, and lies on the left side of the guidance envelope.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the\nLeeward Islands as a hurricane early next week, bringing dangerous\nwind, storm surge and rainfall hazards.  Hurricane or Tropical\nStorm Warnings will likely be required for portions of these\nislands today.\n\n2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and\nhurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as\ntonight.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of\nMaria and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 13.0N  54.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 13.7N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 14.5N  58.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 15.2N  60.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 15.8N  61.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 17.0N  64.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 18.4N  67.0W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\n120H  22/0600Z 19.5N  69.5W  105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nOtis continues to exceed my expectations from yesterday.  The center\nappears to be well embedded within a persistent central dense\novercast, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have\nincreased.  On this basis, the intensity has been increased to 45\nkt.  Otis has an opportunity to strengthen a little bit more over\nthe next 12 to 24 hours, and the statistical-dynamical models show\nthis.  On the other hand, the HWRF suggests that Otis may have\nalready peaked.  The new forecast splits these scenarios and shows\nOtis strengthening only a little more.  After that time, SSTs around\n26 C and a drier environment should cause the tropical storm to\nsteadily weaken.\n\nOtis has barely moved overnight, but should begin to slowly lift\nnorthward later this morning.  Very little change was required to\nthe track forecast, and all of the global models continue to\nindicate that the cyclone will slowly move into a break in the\nsubtropical ridge over the next couple of days.  After about 72 h,\nthe remnants of Otis will likely begin to move west-southwestward\nwithin the low-level tradewinds.  Although there is a fair amount\nof spread on the exact heading Otis will take, there is good\nagreement that it won't move much for the first 72-96 h of the\nforecast, so confidence in that aspect of the forecast is fairly\nhigh.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 16.1N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 16.6N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 17.5N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 18.3N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 18.8N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 18.1N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 17.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nA pair of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0500 UTC showed that Norma\nis weaker than previously estimated.  The maximum winds in both\npasses were around 40 kt, so the initial intensity has been\nconservatively lowered to 45 kt.  The new NHC intensity forecast is\na little lower than the previous one because of the lower initial\nintensity, but otherwise the reasoning behind the forecast is\nunchanged.  Norma is already embedded within a fairly dry\nenvironment, and will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs over\nthe coming days.  Steady weakening is likely, and Norma is now\nforecast to become a remnant low by 96 h.\n\nThere has been a significant shift in the track guidance.  The GFS\nand various GFS-derived models have come into better agreement with\nthe ECMWF, and now depict a track farther away from the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula.  Beyond day 3, there is still a fair amount of\ndisagreement on the extent to which a ridge to the east will turn\nthe tropical storm or its remnants back toward the north.  The ECMWF\ncontinues to insist that the cyclone will come to a near halt, while\nthe GFS shows the remnant low continuing well to the north.  The new\nNHC forecast remains close to the various consensus aids, but hedges\ntoward the ECMWF.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/0900Z 20.5N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  17/1800Z 21.1N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  18/0600Z 21.7N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  18/1800Z 22.1N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  19/0600Z 22.4N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  20/0600Z 22.9N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 96H  21/0600Z 23.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/0600Z 24.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":49,"Date":"2017-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  49\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nThe Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this\nmorning and found flight-level winds of 86 kt, SFMR surface\nwinds of 89 kt, and a minimum pressure of 967 mb.  Based on these\ndata, the initial wind speed is raised to 80 kt for this advisory.\nEven though the winds are stronger than earlier, the hurricane does\nnot have an improved appearance in satellite images.  In fact, the\nAir Force meteorologist onboard the aircraft mentioned that the\ninner core of Jose is asymmetric and the overall appearance is\nlopsided.\n\nJose is expected to be in an environment of strong southwesterly\nwind shear while it is over the warm Gulf Stream waters during the\nnext couple of days.  Although the shear is forecast to lessen\nbeyond that time, the hurricane will likely have crossed the north\nwall of the Gulf Stream by then, where the waters are much cooler.\nThese environmental conditions favor a slow weakening trend during\nthe next several days, and that is reflected in the NHC intensity\nforecast.  It should be noted, however, that despite the expected\nweakening, the models suggest that Jose's outer wind field will\nexpand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that move into\nthe mid-latitudes.\n\nThe hurricane is moving northward at 8 kt on the west side of a\nsubtropical ridge.  This motion is expected to continue for 2 to 3\ndays while the steering pattern persists.  Thereafter, a trough\ncurrently over central Canada is expected to move eastward and\nshould cause Jose to turn to the northeast and east at a slow\nforward speed in the 3- to 5-day time frame.  The NHC track\nforecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous one,\nmainly because of the more westward initial position.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. The center of Jose is forecast to pass well east of the North\nCarolina coast on Monday, and tropical-storm-force winds are\ncurrently expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina Outer\nBanks. However, an additional increase in the size of the storm or a\nwestward adjustment in the track forecast could bring tropical storm\nconditions closer to the Outer Banks, and interests there should\nmonitor the progress of Jose through Monday.\n\n2. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts\nfrom Virginia northward to New England, and any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts.  Interests along the U.S. east coast\nfrom Virginia to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.  Tropical storm watches could be\nrequired for a portion of this area later today.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 31.0N  71.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 32.0N  71.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 33.6N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 35.2N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 36.7N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 39.6N  70.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 40.0N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  22/1200Z 39.5N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nAn 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing\ntropical-storm-force winds.  In addition, deep convection is\nfizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in\na band to the south of the center.  Lee is downgraded to a tropical\ndepression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given\nwhat the ASCAT data is showing.  Since the cyclone is already\nstruggling in its current environment, it probably won't do much\nbetter going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase\nto 30 kt in about 24 hours.  Therefore, gradual weakening is\nexpected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours,\nif not sooner.  The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4\ndays, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4.\n\nLee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt.  Even though the ridge to the\nnorth of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee's weak nature should\ncause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for\nthe next 3 days before it dissipates.  The NHC track forecast\nremains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too\ndifferent from the previous forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 13.0N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 13.2N  37.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 13.8N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 14.7N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 15.7N  42.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  20/1200Z 17.5N  45.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.\nThere appears to be a dry slot working into the western side of\nMaria, and the low-level circulation seems to be peaking out from\nunder the western side of a persistent CDO feature.  Dvorak\nestimates are unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial\nintensity is held at 55 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft will be investigating Maria this afternoon.\n\nMaria continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt, and that\ntrajectory is expected to continue at least for the next four days\nwhile a mid-level high is centered over the western Atlantic Ocean.\nHowever, the track guidance has generally slowed down since the\nhigh is not very expansive or strong, and the new NHC track\nforecast follows that trend, ending up a little slower than the\nprevious forecast.  The official forecast also continues to hedge\ntoward the southern side of the track guidance envelope, closest to\nthe ECMWF and HCCA models, which have been doing very well this\nhurricane season.\n\nUntil the reconnaissance aircraft investigates Maria, the initial\nintensity will be a little uncertain.  Regardless, the storm is\nwithin an environment of very low shear and over sea surface\ntemperatures around 29 degrees Celsius, so steady strengthening is\nexpected during the next few days.  Due to this seemingly ideal\nenvironment, the NHC intensity forecast is higher than the\nstatistical-dynamical guidance and closely follows HCCA and the ICON\nintensity consensus through the entire forecast period.  Maria is\nlikely to become a hurricane later today and could become a major\nhurricane in 2 to 3 days.  No major changes to the intensity\nforecast were necessary compared with the previous cycle, and I'd\nrather wait anyway until we have a better handle on Maria's\nintensity and structure.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is expected to strengthen and affect portions of the\nLeeward Islands as a hurricane early this week, bringing dangerous\nwind, storm surge and rainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical\nstorm warnings have been issued for portions of the Leeward\nIslands, and these warnings will likely be extended northward and\nwestward later today and tonight.\n\n2. Maria could also affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane, and\nhurricane watches could be issued for these islands as early as\ntonight.  Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of\nMaria and follow any advice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 13.5N  56.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 14.1N  57.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 14.8N  59.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 15.5N  60.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 16.1N  62.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 17.3N  64.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 18.5N  67.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  22/1200Z 20.0N  69.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nOtis continues to gradually strengthen.  Satellite images show hints\nof an eye starting to form, and convection just outside the\ncenter has been increasing during the past few hours.  A blend of\nthe TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT values from CIMSS at the\nUniversity of Wisconsin supports increasing the winds to 50 kt,\nthough this could be conservative based on the current structure.\n\nOtis has a little more time to strengthen since the storm is\nexpected to remain in an environment of low wind shear and over 27\ndeg C waters.  After 24 hours, however, lower SSTs, drier air, and\nan increase in wind shear should cause weakening.  Even though SSTs\nwarm along the expected path by the end of the forecast period, the\nmodels continue to show Otis decaying due to unfavorable atmospheric\nconditions.  The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by day\n4 based on the global models, but this is a low confidence\nprediction at this time.\n\nThe tropical storm has now turned to the north, as expected, at a\nvery slow forward speed.  This slow north to north-northwest motion\nis expected during the next 36 hours while Otis moves on the west\nside of a weak mid-level ridge.  Thereafter, a faster west\nand west-southwest motion is expected when the weakening cyclone\nbecomes more influenced by the low-level tradewind flow.  Only\nminor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this\none lies close to the various consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 16.3N 127.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 17.1N 127.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 18.8N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 18.9N 128.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/1200Z 17.0N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Norma is restricted to a curved\nband to the north and the west of the center.  Dvorak\nclassifications continue to fall and a blend of the SAB/TAFB\nnumbers indicates initial maximum winds of 40 kt, consistent with\nsome weakening since the overnight ASCAT pass.\n\nNorma should continue to decay due to the combination of dry air,\ncooler SSTs, and a convergent upper-troposphere.  Transition to a\nremnant low is expected in about three days.  The official\nintensity forecast is based upon the IVCN consensus technique and\nis slightly lower than the previous advisory.\n\nNorma is moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt, steered by a\ndeep-layer ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The tropical storm\nshould turn toward the northwest or west-northwest at about the\nsame rate of forward speed during the next couple of days.  By days\n3 to 5, Norma's remnant low should meander west of the southern tip\nof Baja California.  The official track forecast is based upon a\nblend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach and the ECMWF - the\nbest performing model for this system.  The new prediction is\nslightly west of the previous advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/1500Z 20.9N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  18/0000Z 21.4N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  18/1200Z 21.7N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  19/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  19/1200Z 22.2N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  20/1200Z 22.8N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  21/1200Z 23.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":50,"Date":"2017-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  50\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nThe satellite appearance of Jose has generally changed little\nduring the past several hours.  Microwave data indicate that the\ncenter of circulation is located on the south side of the main area\nof deep convection, likely due to strong southerly shear.  The\ncurrent intensity is held at 80 kt based on the earlier aircraft\ndata.  The initial wind radii have been adjusted outward in\naccordance with the ASCAT data from a few hours ago.\n\nThe strong wind shear currently affecting Jose is expected to\ncontinue for another day or so.  Although the shear is expected to\nslacken beyond that time, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall\nof the Gulf Stream current by then and move into a progressively\ndrier environment.  These conditions should cause a slow weakening\ntrend through the period, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely\nan update of the previous one.  It should be noted, however, that\ndespite the expected weakening, the models suggest that Jose's outer\nwind field will expand, which is typical for tropical cyclones that\nmove into the mid-latitudes.\n\nThe hurricane continues to move northward at 8 kt on the west side\nof a subtropical ridge.  This general motion is expected to\npersist for the next 2 to 3 days while the steering pattern holds.\nThereafter, a turn to the northeast and then east is predicted as a\ntrough currently over central Canada moves closer to Jose.  This\ntrough, however, is not expected to pick up Jose, and instead the\ncyclone is expected to meander or drift southward by the end of the\nforecast period.  The 5-day forecast position has been adjusted to\nthe southwest of the previous NHC prediction, but otherwise only\nminor changes were made.\n\nThe Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters will both be investigating\nJose this evening.  This valuable data will help assess the\nhurricane's initial intensity and structure, and assist the models\nin determining the future path and intensity of the hurricane.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts\nfrom Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts.  A tropical storm watch is now in\neffect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.\nInterests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North\nCarolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware\nto southern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New\nEngland and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total\naccumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long\nIsland, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,\nincluding Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on the current\nforecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.  Any\ndeviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring\nheavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long\nIsland, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation\nwere to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river\nflooding would increase.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 31.5N  71.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 32.7N  71.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 34.3N  71.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 35.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 37.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 40.1N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  22/1800Z 38.5N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nA small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee's center, but\nsince the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain\nthe initial intensity.  Increasing shear and a dry mid-level\nenvironment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few\ndays.  Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose\norganized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner.  The GFS and\nECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3,\nand dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time.\n\nLee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn\nwest-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical\nridge to its north.  A west-northwestward or northwestward motion\nshould continue until Lee dissipates on day 3.  Little change was\nrequired to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to the\nconsensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 13.2N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 13.5N  38.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 14.3N  40.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 15.4N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  19/1800Z 16.6N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nA burst of deep convection developed over Maria's center since the\nlast advisory and has continued to expand in size.  The Air Force\nHurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the cyclone found maximum\nflight-level winds of 63 kt and SFMR surface winds of 64 kt.  The\ncrew also noted the formation of an open eyewall.  Based on these\ndata and observations, Maria is upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.\n\nThe initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 283/13 kt.  Maria\nis expected to maintain this trajectory for quite some time, but it\nwill likely slow down during the next 36 hours as it approaches the\nLesser Antilles.  Overall, the track guidance is tightly clustered\nfor the entire 5-day forecast period, which increases confidence in\nthe NHC track forecast.  The updated official forecast is slightly\nsouth of the previous one for the first 36 hours, mainly due to the\nupdate of the initial position found by the aircraft, but it is\nright along the previous track after 36 hours.  This solution is\nbetween the GFS and ECMWF models and very close to the HCCA\nsolution.\n\nThe aircraft data indicate that Maria has a compact circulation,\nwhich could make it a prime candidate for significant\nintensification in an environment of low shear and warm SSTs.\nRapid intensification indices are not especially high, but\nnonetheless, Maria is forecast to continue strengthening and\npotentially reach major hurricane by 48 hours.  If that occurs,\nsome fluctuations in intensity could occur due to eyewall\nreplacements and land interaction, but Maria will likely remain as\na major hurricane on days 3 through 5.  Because of Maria's small\nsize the chance of significant strengthening is higher, and the NHC\nintensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance, closest to\nthe HWRF and HCCA models.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria has strengthened to a hurricane and could be near major\nhurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands\nover the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and\nrainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been\nissued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will\nlikely be extended northward and westward tonight or on Monday.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane.  Hurricane\nwatches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and\ncould be extended to Puerto Rico tonight or early Monday.  Interests\nin these areas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any\nadvice given by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 13.8N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 14.3N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 15.1N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 15.8N  61.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 16.5N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 17.8N  65.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 19.0N  68.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  22/1800Z 21.0N  71.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Otis Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nOtis continues to surprise us.  Satellite images indicate that the\neye has become more distinct during the past few hours, and the\ndeep convection is wrapping around that center.  The cyclone is\ncurrently undergoing rapid intensification, and the initial\nintensity is increased significantly to 90 kt based on a blend of\nthe latest satellite estimates.  This makes Otis a category 2\nhurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  Even though\nOtis is a powerful cyclone, recent ASCAT data confirms that the\nwind field of the system is extremely compact.\n\nSome additional strengthening is likely during the next 12 hours\nor so while the hurricane remains in an environment of low wind\nshear and over 27 deg C waters.  After that time, however, lower\nSSTs, drier air, and an increase in wind shear should cause\nrapid weakening.  Even though Otis will be moving over warmer waters\nby the end of the forecast period, the models continue to show Otis\ndecaying due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions.  The cyclone is\nstill forecast to become a remnant low by day 4 based on the global\nmodels, but this is a low confidence prediction at this time.\n\nThe hurricane continues to move slowly northward at 4 kt.  A\nslow north to north-northwest motion is expected during the next\n24 to 36 hours while Otis moves on the west side of a weak mid-level\nridge.  Thereafter, a faster west and west-southwest motion is\nexpected when the weakening cyclone becomes more influenced by the\nlow-level tradewind flow.  This track forecast is not too different\nfrom the previous one, and it lies close to the various consensus\naids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 17.0N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.7N 127.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 18.6N 127.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 18.8N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 17.7N 130.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 96H  21/1800Z 16.4N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/1800Z 15.0N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nDeep convection has been holding steady in Norma this afternoon with\na large curved band in its northwestern semicircle. Two ASCAT\nscatterometer passes at 1647Z and 1733Z showed peak winds of about\n45 kt, which is consistent with the Dvorak classifications from SAB\nand TAFB. Either Norma was a bit stronger than earlier estimated or\nit has made a slight comeback.  But, regardless, the initial\nintensity is 45 kt, up from 40 kt previously.\n\nNorma should experience a slow decay due to the combination of dry\nair, cooler SSTs, and a convergent upper-troposphere.  Transition to\na remnant low is expected in about three days and dissipation around\nday 5.  The official intensity forecast is based upon the tightly\nclustered members of the IVCN consensus technique and is slightly\nhigher than previous advisory due to the stronger initial intensity.\n\nNorma is moving northwestward at about 5 kt, steered by a deep-layer\nridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  The tropical storm should turn\ntoward the west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed\nduring the next couple of days.  By days 3 to 4, Norma's remnant low\nshould meander west of the southern tip of Baja California.  The\nofficial track forecast is again shifted westward based upon a blend\nof the TVCN consensus and the ECMWF model.\n\nThe ASCAT passes showed that the tropical-storm-force winds were\nsmaller in extent than previously indicated, though the cyclone has\na large - 40 nm - radius of maximum wind.  The official size\nforecast is based upon the RVCN consensus approach.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  17/2100Z 21.1N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  18/0600Z 21.5N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  18/1800Z 21.8N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/0600Z 22.1N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  19/1800Z 22.3N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  20/1800Z 22.8N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  21/1800Z 23.6N 114.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":51,"Date":"2017-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  51\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nJose's cloud pattern has transformed from one with a tight inner\ncore to one with a large convective band over the northern\nsemicircle that wraps around the center.  This change in structure\ncan be seen in recent microwave imagery and aircraft data that show\nan expansion of the radius of maximum winds.  Data from NOAA and Air\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft still support an initial\nwind speed of 80 kt, but the minimum pressure has risen several\nmillibars since this morning.\n\nStrong southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures along the track of Jose are expected to cause gradual\nweakening, however Jose is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity\nthrough 48 hours.  Around that time, Jose is forecast to pass north\nof the north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much cooler waters,\nwhich will likely result in an additional decrease in intensity\nat 72 h and beyond.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good\nagreement with the SHIPS guidance through 72 h, and closer to the\nglobal models at days 4 and 5.\n\nJose is moving northward at about 8 kt around the western portion\nof a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic.  The track forecast\nreasoning is the same as the previous advisory.  Jose should\ncontinue northward during the next day or so, then turn north-\nnortheastward as a broad mid-latitude trough passes north of the\nhurricane.  After the trough passes Jose's longitude in about 72 h,\nthe cyclone will be left within weak steering currents and is\nexpected to drift eastward, then southeastward and southward late\nin the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast through 72 h is\nvirtually on top of the previous advisory.  The latest dynamical\nmodel guidance takes Jose a little more westward very late in the\nperiod, and the new NHC track forecast has been shifted to the left\nat day 5, close to the latest ECMWF ensemble mean.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts\nfrom Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts.  A tropical storm watch is now in\neffect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.\nInterests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North\nCarolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware\nto southern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New\nEngland and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total\naccumulations of three to five inches are expected over eastern Long\nIsland, southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts,\nincluding Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on the current\nforecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.  Any\ndeviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could bring\nheavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England, Long\nIsland, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation\nwere to occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river\nflooding would increase.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 32.2N  71.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 33.4N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 34.9N  71.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 36.6N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 38.3N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 40.2N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  22/0000Z 39.5N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  23/0000Z 38.5N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Lee has waned over the past\nseveral hours as dry air and shear take a toll on the tropical\ncyclone.  A recent partial ASCAT pass showed 25 kt winds over the\nnorthwest portion of the circulation, assuming that there are\nstronger winds to the northeast of the center, the initial intensity\nis held at 30 kt, but this could be generous.  The vertical shear\nis forecast to increase to greater than 30 kt during the next 24\nhours and it is doubtful that Lee will be able to generate enough\norganized deep convection to keep its status as a tropical cyclone\nfor much longer.  As a result of the shear and nearby dry air,\nweakening and degeneration into a remnant low is predicted by Monday\nnight, if not sooner.  The global models show the circulation\ndissipating in 2 to 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.\n\nLee has turned west-northwestward or 285/9 kt. A west-northwestward\nor northwestward motion should continue until the cyclone\ndissipates, and little change to the previous NHC track forecast\nwas required.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 13.6N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 14.1N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 15.2N  41.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  19/1200Z 16.3N  42.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/0000Z 17.7N  44.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft received\njust after the previous advisory indicated that Maria's maximum\nsustained winds had increased to 70 kt.  Since that time, a large\ncentral dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -80C has formed,\nand data from the radar on Martinique shows 60-70 percent of an\neyewall is present under the overcast.  Satellite intensity\nestimates have increased to 75 kt, and that is the initial\nintensity.\n\nThe initial motion is 290/11.  The subtropical ridge to the north\nis expected to steer Maria generally west-northwestward for the\nnext 72 h, with some decrease in the forward speed.  After that\ntime, the guidance suggests that the hurricane should turn more\ntoward the northwest as it approaches the western end of the ridge.\nThe track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast\ntrack, which is similar to the previous track, is in best overall\nagreement with the HFIP corrected consensus and ECMWF models.\n\nAnalyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that\nMaria is currently experiencing light to moderate southwesterly\nshear.  However, all indications are that the shear should diminish\nduring the next 24-48 h, which should allow steady to rapid\nstrengthening.  The Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model\nforecast better than a 50 percent chance of 25-30 kt of\nstrengthening during the next 24 h, and about a 35 percent chance\nof 55 kt of strengthening during the next 48 h.  Based on this, the\nintensity forecast has been increased to show Maria becoming a\nmajor hurricane in 24 h and a category 4 hurricane in 48 h.  Late in\nthe forecast period, a combination of land interaction and\nincreasing shear should cause some weakening.  The new intensity\nforecast is near the upper edge of the guidance in best overall\nagreement with the HWRF.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria continues to strengthen and is expected to be at major\nhurricane intensity when it affects portions of the Leeward Islands\nover the next few days, bringing dangerous wind, storm surge and\nrainfall hazards.  Hurricane and tropical storm warnings have been\nissued for portions of the Leeward Islands, and these warnings will\nlikely be extended northward and westward on Monday.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane.  Hurricane\nwatches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and\ncould be extended to Puerto Rico early Monday.  Interests in these\nareas should monitor the progress of Maria and follow any advice\ngiven by local officials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 14.2N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 14.7N  59.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 15.4N  61.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 16.2N  62.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 16.9N  63.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 18.5N  67.0W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO\n 96H  22/0000Z 20.0N  69.5W  115 KT 130 MPH...OVER WATER\n120H  23/0000Z 22.0N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Otis Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 PM PDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nOtis's rapid intensification rate has leveled off over the\npast few hours, with the small clear eye not quite as distinct as\nearlier.  Still, the cloud pattern of the hurricane remains well\norganized.  While the 0000 UTC Dvorak estimates had subjective\nvalues near 90 kt, a 6-hourly data-T average was 105 kt.  As a blend\nof these data, the initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.  Otis is\nmoving over marginal SSTs now, so any further intensification is\nexpected to be slight.  By tomorrow night, a combination of lower\nSSTs, drier air and an increase in southerly shear is forecast to\ncause a significant weakening of Otis.  Almost all of the guidance\nshow rapid weakening by early Tuesday, and this is the solution\nprovided in the new NHC wind speed prediction.  Global models\nsuggest Otis will lose organized deep convection within about 3\ndays, so the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low at\nthat time.\n\nOtis is moving faster to the north, now at 7 kt.  The hurricane\nshould take a sharp westward turn in about 24 hours as it runs\ninto a building ridge over the eastern Pacific, then turn\nwest-southwest or southwest under that ridge.  Very little change\nwas made to the previous forecast, which lies between the model\nconsensus and the ECMWF model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 18.0N 127.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 18.9N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 19.4N 128.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 17.6N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  23/0000Z 14.8N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017\n\nThe satellite appearance of Norma hasn't changed much since the\nlast advisory, with a large curved band in the northwestern\nquadrant of the storm.  Dvorak estimates support keeping the wind\nspeed 45 kt for this advisory.  Norma is forecast to gradually\nweaken starting Monday since it will be moving over cooler SSTs and\ninto a drier, more stable airmass.  No change was made to the\nprevious forecast as the guidance is in very good agreement on this\nscenario.\n\nNorma is now moving west-northwestward, turning slightly to the\nleft since the last advisory while it moves around a deep-layer\nridge over northwestern Mexico.  In about 3 days, the ridge weakens\nsomewhat, which should allow the cyclone, or its remnants, to turn\nnorthwestward then northward.  Guidance has continued to shift\nwestward, and the official forecast is again moved in that\ndirection.  Because of the more offshore track, the chances of\nseeing tropical-storm-force winds over land are quite low, and the\ngovernment of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0300Z 21.4N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  18/1200Z 21.6N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  19/0000Z 21.8N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  19/1200Z 22.1N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 48H  20/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  21/0000Z 23.7N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":52,"Date":"2017-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  52\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nJose is certainly looking less tropical characteristically this\nmorning.  The 25 to 30 kt of southwesterly shear indicated in the\nCIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model has separated the fragmented\ninner core of Jose farther to the northeast of the partially exposed\nsurface circulation center.  What remains of the deep convective\nbanding features of the cyclone are confined to the north and east\nportions.  The initial intensity is lowered a bit to 75 kt based on\nthe deteriorating cloud pattern and a blend of the subjective\nT-number Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The aforementioned\ndeep-layer shear and decreasing oceanic temperatures are forecast to\ninduce a slow weakening trend through day 5.  Because of the\nsignificantly cooler water north of the Gulf Stream and a\npersistently harsh upper-level wind environment, Jose should lose\nits tropical characteristics around day 4, if not sooner.  The\nofficial intensity forecast follows suit and is weighed heavily on\nthe global models solution and is close to, but a little above, the\nSHIPS guidance.\n\nThe initial motion is a little uncertain because of the significant\ncloud structure change during the past 6 hours.  Shortwave and\nenhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveal a more\nnorth-northeastward short term motion, with the center possibly as\nfar east as 71.1W.  However, an earlier GPM microwave image\nand the satellite classification fixes indicated a position bit\nfarther to the west near 71.2 to 71.5W.  As a compromise, I elected\nto split the initial position between the two solutions which\nyields a northward motion, at about 360/8 kt.  There are no\nchanges to the forecast track philosophy.  Jose should continue\nnorthward during the next day or so, then turn north-northeastward\nWednesday as a mid-tropospheric trough passes north of the\nhurricane.  After the shortwave trough moves northeastward in\n3 days, Jose is forecast to drift eastward, then turn\ngradually southeastward and southward around day 4 as high\npressure builds over the northeastern United States.  The NHC\nforecast track has been nudged slightly to the right of the\nprevious advisory, due primarily to the short term\nnorth-northeastward motion, and is based on a blend of the HCCA and\nGFEX (ECMWF/GFS) guidance.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone could cause some direct impacts\nfrom Delaware northward to New England, and any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of those impacts.  A Tropical Storm Watch is now in\neffect from the Delaware coast to southeastern Massachusetts.\nInterests elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from North\nCarolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose\nthrough the next several days.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware\nto southern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New\nEngland and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total\naccumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long\nIsland, southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast\nMassachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.  Based on\nthe current forecast, the risk of flooding will be limited in scope.\nAny deviation to the left of the forecast track, however, could\nbring heavier and more widespread rainfall to southern New England,\nLong Island, New York City, and New Jersey.  If this deviation were\nto occur, the risk of urban flash flooding and some river flooding\nwould increase.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 33.0N  71.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 34.2N  71.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 35.8N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 37.4N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 38.8N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z 39.9N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  22/0600Z 39.2N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  23/0600Z 38.3N  68.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nLee's cloud pattern has deteriorated considerably this morning.\nAll that remains of the deep convection are a few fragmented bands\nin the northeast quadrant.  The initial intensity is generously\nheld at 30 kt for this advisory.  Deep-layer shear is expected to\nincrease during the next 12 to 24 hours, and this inhibiting\nfactor should prevent the cyclone from maintaining what is left\nof the deep convection.  Consequently, Lee should degenerate into a\nremnant low by tonight.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 290/11\nkt.  A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected\nthrough the entire forecast period, or until the cyclone dissipates\nin 3 days or earlier.  No significant changes were made to the NHC\ntrack from previous advisory and the official forecast is based\nmainly on the HFIP Corrected Consensus technique.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 14.1N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 14.9N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 16.0N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  19/1800Z 17.1N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/0600Z 18.5N  45.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nMaria is maintaining a fairly circular area of intense convection\nwith some accompanying banding features.  There has also been\nconsiderable lightning occurring near the center over the past\nseveral hours, confirming the vigor of the core convection.  The\ncurrent intensity is set at 80 kt which is a blend of Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane\nHunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Maria in a couple of\nhours and will give another estimate of the strength of the\nhurricane.  With warm waters and weak shear anticipated along the\nprojected track of Maria, additional strengthening is forecast.\nAccording to the SHIPS-RI guidance, there is a significant\nprobability of rapid intensification over the next day or two.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the model consensus and\nthe latest HWRF simulation.  Maria is likely to be at category 3 or\n4 intensity by the time it moves into the extreme northeastern\nCaribbean Sea.\n\nGeostationary satellite fixes and the position estimates from the\nMartinique radar give a motion of about 290/11 kt.  A high pressure\narea to the north of Maria should maintain the west-northwestward\nmotion for the next several days.  Late in the forecast period, the\nhigh weakens and this should cause a turn toward the\nnorth-northwest.  The official track forecast is similar to the\nHFIP Corrected Consensus model as well as the ECMWF and lies on the\nleft side of the guidance suite.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is likely to strengthen significantly, and is expected to\nbe at major hurricane intensity when it affects portions of the\nLeeward Islands over the next few days, bringing dangerous wind,\nstorm surge and rainfall hazards.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and\nPuerto Rico by mid week as a dangerous major hurricane.  Hurricane\nwatches have been issued for the U.S. and British Virgin Islands\nas well as for Puerto Rico.  Interests in these areas should monitor\nthe progress of Maria and follow any advice given by local\nofficials.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 14.6N  59.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 15.1N  60.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 15.8N  62.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  63.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 17.4N  64.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  21/0600Z 19.0N  67.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  22/0600Z 21.0N  70.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  23/0600Z 23.5N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Otis Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nWhat goes up must come down -- Otis is a classic example of what can\nhappen with a small tropical cyclone.  After rapidly intensifying\nearlier today, the cloud pattern has become rather poorly\norganized, with the center on the western edge of an irregular\ncentral dense overcast.  The wind speed is reduced to 85 kt, on the\nhigh side of the latest Dvorak estimates, and this could be\ngenerous.  Further weakening is likely since Otis has moved over\ncool SSTs and increasing shear is expected by tomorrow.  Thus,\nrapid weakening is forecast, and the official intensity is reduced\nfrom the previous one, lying near the model consensus, although\nthe corrected consensus models are even lower.  Global models\nsuggest Otis will degenerate into a remnant low within 2 days.\n\nOtis is still moving northward, recently at 5 kt.  This northward\nmotion should turn to the west and southwest over the next 36\nhours as it is steered by a low-level ridge over the central\nPacific.  The global models are generally showing a stronger ridge,\nand the guidance has shifted farther southwest with the track of the\nexpected remnants of the cyclone. The new NHC prediction follows the\nlatest guidance, resulting in a faster track that is to the\nsouthwest of the previous official forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 18.5N 127.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 19.2N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 19.3N 127.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 19.0N 128.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 18.2N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0600Z 14.7N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nNorma is a small tropical cyclone, with one main curved band in the\neastern semicircle and an easy-to-find center.  Dvorak estimates\nare virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago and support the same\ninitial wind speed of 45 kt.  Norma should begin to gradually\nweaken later today as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a drier,\nmore stable airmass.  The latest forecast is a blend of the\nprevious NHC prediction and the model consensus since guidance is\ntightly clustered on the future weakening.  Most of the global\nmodels show convection disappearing within 2 days, so Norma is\nnow forecast to become a remnant low by that time.\n\nNorma is now moving west-northwestward, continuing to be steered by\na ridge over northwestern Mexico.  This general track is expected\nfor the next few days with a gentle curve toward the north-northwest\npredicted as Norma moves around the southwestern portion of the\nridge.  The new forecast is shifted westward, on the western side of\nthe model consensus closer to the ECMWF, which had the more offshore\ntrack idea for some time before the bulk of the guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/0900Z 21.4N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  18/1800Z 21.5N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  19/0600Z 21.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  19/1800Z 22.2N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  20/0600Z 22.8N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":53,"Date":"2017-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  53\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that Jose is losing some tropical\ncharacteristics.  The cloud pattern of the hurricane is asymmetric\nwith much of the central convection and convective bands confined to\nthe north of the center.  The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters\nhave found that Jose is weaker, with maximum flight-level winds of\n78 kt and maximum SFMR surface winds of 58 kt observed.  Based on\nthese data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 65 kt.\n\nJose should remain over warm Gulf Stream waters during the next 24\nhours, but it will also be in an environment of strong\nsouth-southwesterly shear, so little change in strength is expected\nduring that time.  Shortly thereafter, the hurricane is forecast to\ncross the north wall of the Gulf Stream and move into a\nprogressively drier air mass.  These unfavorable conditions should\ncause a slow weakening trend and lead to post-tropical transition,\nwhich is now expected to be complete by day 3.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term\nto account for the slightly lower initial wind speed.\n\nThe hurricane has been wobbling around, but the general motion has\nbeen northward at 8 kt.  A mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic\nshould continue to steer Jose northward at about the same forward\nspeed during the next day or two.  Thereafter, a trough currently\nover central Canada is expected to cause Jose to turn eastward in\nthe 2 to 3 day time frame.  The trough is then expected to lift out,\nleaving Jose in weak steering currents and causing the cyclone to\ndrift southward by the end of the forecast period.  Only minor\nchanges were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this\nprediction lies near a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some\ndirect impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm\nwarning has been issued for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of\nthe Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from\nDelaware to southern New England, where a tropical storm watch is in\neffect.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New\nEngland and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total\naccumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long\nIsland, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast\nMassachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the\nrisk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the\nleft of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread\nrainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and\nNew Jersey.  If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban\nflash flooding and some river flooding would increase.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 33.9N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 35.1N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 36.7N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 38.2N  70.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 39.4N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 40.0N  67.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  22/1200Z 39.1N  68.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  23/1200Z 38.5N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nAfter being nearly devoid of thunderstorm activity overnight, a\nburst of deep convection has developed near and to the east of\nthe center this morning.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt,\nin agreement with earlier ASCAT data.  Despite the development of\ndeep convection, the overall forecast reasoning for Lee's future\nintensity is unchanged.  Lee is expected to be embedded within very\nstrong westerly to northwesterly shear during the next couple of\ndays.  These hostile winds, combined with a dry environment, should\ncause Lee to weaken and become a remnant low in about 24 hours.\nThe global models suggest that Lee could open up into a trough\nwithin the next 2 to 3 days.  Since the models remain in good\nagreement, and the NHC intensity forecast is basically the same as\nthe previous one.\n\nLee is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt on the southwest side of\na mid-level high pressure system.  A turn to the northwest with a\ndecrease in forward speed is expected by tonight as the tropical\ndepression moves toward a large-scale trough.  A continued\nnorthwestward motion is forecast until the system dissipates over\nthe central Atlantic.  There is not much spread in the model\nsolutions, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the\nguidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 14.1N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 14.8N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 16.0N  43.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/0000Z 17.4N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/1200Z 18.9N  45.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate\nthat Maria is undergoing rapid intensification.  The aircraft\nreported 700-mb flight-level winds of 115 kt in the northeastern\neyewall, along with reliable-looking surface wind estimates from the\nStepped Frequency Microwave radiometer as high as 104 kt.  In\naddition, the estimated central pressure inside the 10 n mi wide eye\nhas fallen to 959 mb.  The initial intensity is increased to 100 kt,\nmaking Maria a major category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\nHurricane Wind Scale.  The small eye is also apparent in radar data\nfrom Martinique.\n\nThe initial motion is 285/9, a little to the left of the previous\nmotion.  Other than that, there is little change in either the\nforecast philosophy or the forecast track.  A high pressure area to\nthe north of Maria should maintain a general west-northwestward\nmotion for the next three days or so.  After that, the high weakens,\nwhich should allow the hurricane to turn gradually northwestward and\nnorth-northwestward.  The new forecast track is changed little from\nthe previous one, and it calls for Maria to move through the Leeward\nIslands in 12-24 h, approach the Virgin Islands in about 36 h, then\ncross Puerto Rico between 48-72 h.  The new track lies to the left\nof the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the\nECMWF.\n\nAtmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional\nrapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.\nThis is reflected in the intensity forecast, which now calls for\nMaria to become a category 4 hurricane in 12 h and reach a possibly\nconservative peak intensity of 130 kt in about 36 h.  From 72-120 h,\nland interaction and less favorable upper-level winds are expected\nto cause some weakening.  On top of these general trends, there is\nalso the possibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur\nthat would affect the intensity.  However, Maria is likely to\nmaintain category 3 to 4 intensity through the forecast period.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British\nand U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane\nduring the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect\nfor many of these islands.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous\nmajor hurricane, and a hurricane watch is in effect for that island.\nA hurricane warning will likely be issued later today.\n\n3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by\nlarge and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,\nthe Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.\n\n4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall\nare expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and\nthe U.S. and British Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 14.7N  60.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 15.1N  61.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 15.9N  62.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 16.8N  64.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 17.6N  65.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  21/1200Z 19.5N  68.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  22/1200Z 21.5N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  23/1200Z 24.0N  72.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nOtis is weakening at a remarkable rate.  Only 12 hours ago, the\ncyclone had an eye, but now most of the deep convection has\ndissipated entirely. The cloud pattern now only supports an\nintensity of about 45 kt, but Dvorak intensity estimates are\nconstrained to higher values by the rules of the technique.  Given\nthe small size of Otis, it seems possible that this is a rare case\nwhere the intensity is dropping faster than the Dvorak\ntechnique allows.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt,\nbut it is possible that Otis is even weaker than this.  Continued\nrapid weakening is expected, and most of the dynamical models show\nOtis becoming a remnant low within about 36 h.  The GFS and ECMWF\nmaintain a weak surface low for another couple days after that, but\nsuggest it will dissipate entirely shortly after 96 h.\n\nOtis has continued to move northward over the past 6 hours, but\nit appears to be slowing down.  As the circulation becomes shallower\nover the next 12 to 24 hours, Otis will be increasingly steered by\nthe low-level northeasterly flow associated with a ridge over the\ncentral Pacific.  This should cause the cyclone to make a sharp turn\ntoward the southwest later today or early tomorrow morning.  Little\nchange has been made to the track forecast, which is close to an\naverage of the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 19.0N 127.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 19.4N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 19.3N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 18.7N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/1200Z 17.8N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1200Z 16.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/1200Z 14.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nNorma has made a bit of a convective comeback this morning.  A large\nconvective band extends from the northwest to the southeast\nquadrant, and another small burst has recently developed near the\ncenter.  The estimated intensity remains 45 kt, based on the latest\nTAFB Dvorak fix.  Despite this recent resurgence, there is still\nunanimous support from the intensity guidance that Norma will\ngradually weaken during the next couple of days.  This seems\nreasonable since the cyclone is slowly passing over a sharp SST\ngradient, and should cross the 26 C isotherm in about 24 hours.  No\nchange has been made to the intensity forecast, which is close to\njust about all of the models.\n\nBased on first-light visible imagery from GOES-16, Norma is now\nmoving generally toward the west.  As long as it maintains a medium\nto deep circulation, Norma should continue to be steered westward\nto west-northwestward by a mid-level ridge to the north.  An\napproaching low to mid-level trough should cause the cyclone to\nslowly turn northward after it becomes a remnant low.  The GFS and\nGFS-based models have shifted a little toward the southwest, closer\nto the ECMWF, especially for the first 36 hours of the forecast.\nThe NHC track forecast has therefore also been moved in that\ndirection, and splits the tracks of the ECMWF and HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/1500Z 21.4N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  19/0000Z 21.5N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  19/1200Z 21.7N 114.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  20/0000Z 22.1N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  20/1200Z 22.8N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":54,"Date":"2017-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  54\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of Jose has not changed much during the day.  The\nhurricane continues to lose some tropical characteristics, and it\nremains asymmetric with most of the convective bands located to the\nnorth of the center.  The initial wind speed is held at 65 kt based\non the earlier aircraft data.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter\nplane is scheduled to investigate Jose this evening and will\nprovide a better assessment of the strength and structure of the\nhurricane.\n\nJose is expected to remain over the warm Gulf Stream waters for\nabout another day, so even though the shear is high, the hurricane\nwill likely maintain its intensity during that time.  Shortly\nthereafter, Jose is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf\nStream and move into a progressively drier air mass.  These\nunfavorable conditions should cause a slow weakening trend and lead\nto post-tropical transition, which is expected to be complete by day\n3.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and\nin good agreement with the consensus aids.\n\nThe hurricane continues to wobble around, but the general motion\nis northward at 9 kt.  The overall track forecast philosophy is\nunchanged.  A continued northward motion at about the same forward\nspeed is expected during the next day or so while the hurricane\nremains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the western\nAtlantic.  Thereafter, a trough currently over central Canada is\nexpected to cause Jose to turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time\nframe.  The trough is then expected to lift out, leaving Jose in\nweak steering currents and causing the cyclone to drift to the\nsouth or southwest at the end of the forecast period.  Only minor\nchanges were made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one\nlies near the various consensus aids.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some\ndirect impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm\nwarning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of\nthe Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from\nDelaware to southern New England.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain as it passes near southern New\nEngland and the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Total\naccumulations of 3 to 5 inches are expected over eastern Long\nIsland, southeast Connecticut, southern Rhode Island, and southeast\nMassachusetts, including Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. While the\nrisk of flooding is currently limited in scope, any deviation to the\nleft of the forecast track, could bring heavier and more widespread\nrainfall to southern New England, Long Island, New York City, and\nNew Jersey.  If this deviation were to occur, the risk of urban\nflash flooding and some river flooding would increase.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 34.8N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 35.9N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 37.4N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 38.9N  70.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 39.9N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 40.0N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  22/1800Z 39.4N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  23/1800Z 38.5N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nThe convective burst that occurred near the center of Lee this\nmorning has dissipated leaving only a low-level cloud swirl.  The\ninitial intensity of the system is held at 30 kt, in agreement\nwith the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The shear over Lee\nis estimated to be close to 40 kt according to the SHIPS model,\nand these very hostile winds and dry air should cause Lee to weaken\nand degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours.\nThe GFS and ECMWF suggest that whatever is left of Lee will likely\nopen into a trough in 36 to 48 hours.\n\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt steered by the\nsouthwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the\neastern Atlantic.  The weak system is expected to turn to the\nnorthwest and slow down tonight as it moves toward a trough, and it\nshould continue in that direction until it dissipates.  Little\nchange was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one\nremains near the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 15.0N  42.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 16.0N  43.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  19/1800Z 17.2N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/0600Z 18.7N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nMaria is developing the dreaded pinhole eye.  The last reports from\nan Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and radar data from\nMartinique indicated an eye with a diameter of about 8-10 n mi, and\nthis featured has recently become better defined in visible and\ninfrared satellite imagery.  The aircraft data supported an\nintensity of 105-110 kt back at 18Z, and all indications are that\nrapid intensification is continuing.  Thus, the initial intensity\nis increased to 115 kt.  Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is\nschedule to arrive in Maria about 2330Z, and it is distinctly\npossible that it will find a higher intensity than 115 kt.\n\nAfter an excursion to the left overnight, Maria has resumed a\nmotion of 290-295 degrees at about 8 kt, and the short-term motion\nmay be even farther to the right.  A weak subtropical ridge to the\nnorth of the hurricane should steer it generally west-northwestward\nfor the next three days, with the center crossing the Leeward\nIslands near Dominica during the next few hours.  This is expected\nto be followed by a track across the northeastern Caribbean to near\nthe Virgin Islands, then followed by a passage over or near Puerto\nRico around the 48 h point.  Once north of Puerto Rico, the\nhurricane should gradually turn toward the northwest and\nnorth-northwest as it approaches a weakness in the ridge.  The track\nguidance is tightly clustered through 120 h, and the new forecast\ntrack is an update of the previous forecast that lies a little to\nthe south of the various consensus models.\n\nAtmospheric and oceanic conditions appear favorable for additional\nrapid strengthening for the next 24 h and possibly longer.  The\nintensity forecast, which is at or above the upper edge of the\nguidance, now calls for Maria to reach a peak intensity of 135 kt\nin about 24 h, and it is possible that the hurricane could reach\ncategory 5 status.  Later in the forecast period, land interaction\nand less favorable upper-level winds are expected to cause some\nweakening.  On top of these general trends, there is also the\npossibility that eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would\naffect the intensity.  However, Maria is likely to remain an\nextremely dangerous major hurricane through the forecast period.\n\nIt should be noted that the despite the great intensity of Maria,\nthe hurricane force winds are currently confined to a small area\nnear the eye.  The radii forecast assumes that the 64-kt radii will\nnot expand significantly during the next 36 h.  However, if an\neyewall replacement cycle occurs, the hurricane-force winds could\nexpand to an area larger than forecast.\n\nIf radar data from the eastern Caribbean is regularly available,\nTropical Cyclone Updates may be issued this evening.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British\nand U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane\nduring the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect\nfor many of these islands.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous\nmajor hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that\nisland.\n\n3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by\nlarge and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,\nthe Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.\n\n4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall\nare expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and\nthe U.S. and British Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 15.1N  60.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 15.7N  61.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 16.5N  63.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 17.3N  64.7W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 18.2N  66.2W  130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO\n 72H  21/1800Z 20.0N  69.0W  125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER\n 96H  22/1800Z 22.0N  71.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  23/1800Z 25.0N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nOtis has continued to weaken very rapidly.  Without any recent ASCAT\ndata (or a reliable conceptual model for open-water rapid\nweakening), it is tough for me to estimate just how fast the cyclone\nis weakening.  Satellite classifications remain constrained, but\ngiven the continued lack of convection over the center, the initial\nintensity has been lowered farther, to 40 kt.\n\nStratocumulus clouds wrap well into the southwest quadrant, evidence\nthat Otis is embedded within a very stable environment.  Continued\nweakening seems inevitable, and the only real question is how soon\nOtis will become a remnant low.  The forecast now shows the cyclone\nbecoming a depression within 12 hours, and a remnant low within 24\nhours.  Given current convective trends, Otis could become a remnant\nlow much sooner than indicated.  The remnant circulation is forecast\nto persist for a couple days after that, in agreement with the most\nrecent ECMWF and GFS model runs.\n\nAs expected, Otis is coming to a halt, now that the circulation has\nbecome very shallow.  Within the next 12 to 24 hours, the tropical\nstorm is still expected to be steered toward the southwest by a\nridge over the central Pacific, and a southwestward motion should\ncontinue until the cyclone dissipates.  The NHC forecast is a little\nsouth of the previous one since Otis appears to have already begun\nits turn toward the southwest, and it is close to the various\nconsensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 19.1N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 19.1N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/0600Z 17.8N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/1800Z 16.6N 130.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1800Z 14.5N 133.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nAfter Norma's brief resurgence this morning, cloud tops have begun\nto warm.  Dvorak classifications are a little lower than they\nwere this morning, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 40\nkt. No change has been made to the intensity forecast.  The tropical\nstorm should continue to gradually weaken while crossing over\nprogressively cooler SSTs.  The new NHC forecast shows Norma\nbecoming a remnant low in 36 h and dissipating entirely by 72 h, in\nline with the latest guidance from the GFS and ECMWF.\n\nNorma is moving slowly west, and the initial motion estimate is\n270/5 kt.  The cyclone should continue moving west for the next day\nor so, south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico\nover the eastern Pacific.  Once Norma becomes a remnant low, the\nlow-level remnants are still expected to turn more northward.  The\nmodels have shifted a little more toward the southwest for the\nfirst 24 h the forecast, so the official forecast has been nudged in\nthat direction, and remains about halfway between the ECMWF and the\nHFIP Corrected Consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  18/2100Z 21.4N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 21.5N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 21.7N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  20/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-09-19 00:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Special Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n800 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nThis special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and\nforecast intensity of Maria.\n\nRecent reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\nindicate that Maria continues to rapidly strengthen.  The aircraft\nmeasured SFMR winds of 139 kt in the northwest eyewall and an\nestimated minimum pressure of 925 mb, based on dropsonde data.\nBased on these observations, the initial intensity of Maria has\nbeen increased to 140 kt, making Maria a potentially catastrophic\ncategory 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\nSome additional strengthening is possible during the next 24\nhours, but fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall\ncycles and land interaction.\n\nNo change was made to the previous track forecast, and the\nextremely dangerous core of Maria is expected to pass over Dominica\nwithin the next hour or two.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British\nand U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane\nduring the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect\nfor many of these islands.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous\nmajor hurricane, and a hurricane warning has been issued for that\nisland.\n\n3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by\nlarge and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,\nthe Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.\n\n4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall\nare expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and\nthe U.S. and British Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0000Z 15.3N  61.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  19/0600Z 15.7N  61.9W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  19/1800Z 16.5N  63.3W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 36H  20/0600Z 17.3N  64.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 48H  20/1800Z 18.2N  66.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\n 72H  21/1800Z 20.0N  69.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  22/1800Z 22.0N  71.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n120H  23/1800Z 25.0N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":55,"Date":"2017-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  55\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nAircraft data indicate that the peak winds of Jose haven't changed\nmuch since the last flight, with similar pressure values and\nflight-level winds.  The wind speed will remain 65 kt in accordance\nwith the flight-level winds, but this could be generous as the SFMR\nwas a bit lower.\n\nSatellite images show that Jose has become a little less tropical,\nwith an elongated cloud pattern suggesting that the cyclone has some\nhybrid characteristics.  Jose should eventually weaken in a day or\nso as it moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream into a\nmore stable environment. Little change was made to the previous\nforecast, which is similar to much of the guidance, and Jose should\nbecome post-tropical in a few days. The long range forecast\nintensity depends on how far south the system moves, but since the\npredicted track is still over cool waters, slow weakening is\nanticipated.\n\nThe center of Jose took a north-northwest turn earlier tonight due\nto a convective burst, but it now appears it is back to moving\ntoward the north. A continued northward motion at about the same\nforward speed is expected during the next day or so while the\nhurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the\nwestern Atlantic.  All of the guidance keep the center of Jose\noffshore of southern New England, but close enough to cause\ntropical-storm-force winds for a portion of the area. Thereafter, a\ntrough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to\nturn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame.  The trough is then\nexpected to lift out, leaving Jose drifting to the south and\nsouthwest under a blocking ridge forming over the northeastern\nUnited States. Little change was made to the previous NHC track\nforecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some\ndirect impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm\nwarning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of\nthe Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from\nDelaware to southern New England.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New\nEngland and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these\nlocations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5\ninches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,\nsouthern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including\nMartha's Vineyard and Nantucket. This rainfall could cause isolate\nflooding. Elsewhere Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with\nlittle risk of flooding over the majority of the mid-Atlantic coast\nand the northeast states.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 35.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 36.2N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 37.8N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 39.1N  69.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 39.8N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 39.4N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  23/0000Z 38.5N  67.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  24/0000Z 38.0N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Lee","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Lee Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nLee has degenerated into a tight swirl of low clouds with\nintermittent burst of convection, and no longer classifies as a\ntropical cyclone.  As forecast by global models, strong upper-level\nwesterly winds have become established over the disturbance, and\nthis pattern should not allow regeneration.  Some additional bursts\nof convection could still develop while the disturbance moves\nnorthwestward until dissipation in a day or so.\n\nThis is the last advisory on Lee issued by the National Hurricane\nCenter.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 15.1N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  19/1200Z 16.0N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nThe Air Force Hurricane Hunters were able to fly a single pass\nfrom northwest to southeast through the eye of Maria just prior to\n0000 UTC.  The aircraft found a peak SFMR wind of 139 kt in the\nnorthwest eyewall, i.e. category 5 intensity.  Raw objective\nT-numbers from UW/CIMSS reached as high as T7.3 just before the\ncenter moved over land.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed\nwas increased to 140 kt on the earlier special advisory, and that\nintensity is maintained for this advisory, although some slight\nweakening may have occurred as the small core of the hurricane\npassed over Dominica.  Since the center has moved over land, the\naircraft has not been able to make a second pass through the eye.\nThe aircraft will be in the storm a few more hours and should be\nable to provide additional center fixes once the eye moves west of\nDominica.\n\nMaria is forecast to remain within an environment of low wind shear\nand over warm water during the next couple of days.  Given these\nfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, Maria is expected to\nremain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane when it approaches the Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico, however some fluctuations in intensity are\npossible due during the next 24 to 36 h due to eyewall cycles.  Land\ninteraction and a slight increase in shear are likely to cause some\ngradual weakening after Maria moves over the southwestern Atlantic\nin 3 to 4 days.\n\nMaria is moving west-northwestward or 300/8 kt.  A weak ridge\nlocated over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the\nhurricane west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on this track the\ncenter of Maria is forecast to pass near or over the Virgin Islands\nand Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  After that time, the western portion\nof the ridge is forecast to weaken, which should allow Maria to turn\nnorthwestward, then north-northwestward by day 5.  The track\nguidance is in good agreement and little change was required to the\nNHC track forecast through 72 hours.  At days 4 and 5, the global\nmodel envelope has shifted slightly eastward and the NHC forecast\nwas adjusted accordingly to be in better agreement with the HFIP\ncorrect consensus and ECMWF model.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria will affect portions of the Leeward Islands and the British\nand U.S. Virgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane\nduring the next couple of days, and hurricane warnings are in effect\nfor many of these islands.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico as an extremely dangerous\nmajor hurricane, and a hurricane warning is in effect for that\nisland.  Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed\nto completion.\n\n3. The potential for a life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by\nlarge and destructive waves, has increased for the Leeward Islands,\nthe Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.\n\n4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall\nare expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and\nthe U.S. and British Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 15.5N  61.4W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 16.1N  62.6W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 17.0N  64.0W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 17.9N  65.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 48H  21/0000Z 18.7N  66.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  22/0000Z 20.5N  69.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  23/0000Z 22.8N  71.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  24/0000Z 25.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 PM PDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly and the circulation\nis becoming elongated. Given the lowering of Dvorak estimates\ntonight, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt.  Dry air\nand cooler waters will continue to affect the cyclone, and\nadditional weakening is forecast.  Otis is anticipated to degenerate\ninto a remnant low in about 24 hours or sooner.\n\nSince Otis is weakening and becoming a shallow system, it will be\nsteered southwestward by the low level-flow until dissipation.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 19.4N 127.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 19.2N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 18.5N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Norma Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017\n\nNorma's cloud pattern consists of a tight circulation with some\nshapeless clusters of deep convection to the east of the center.\nDvorak T-numbers are decreasing and the initial intensity has\nbeen lowered to 35 kt.  The circulation is already moving over\ncooler water, so the weakening process should continue.  Norma\nwill likely become a remnant low in about 36 hours or even sooner.\n\nThe initial motion appears to be toward the west-northwest or 290\ndegrees at 6 kt.  Most of the track models move the cyclone or its\nremnants to the northwest and north around a subtropical ridge over\nMexico until dissipation.  The NHC forecast follows the guidance and\nis in the middle of the track model envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0300Z 21.7N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/1200Z 21.8N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/0000Z 22.2N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  20/1200Z 23.0N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":56,"Date":"2017-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  56\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that a small area of deep convection is\npersisting near the center of Jose.  While it doesn't look\nparticularly tropical at the moment, there is no evidence of fronts\nconnected to the center and the system is definitely warm core.\nThus, Jose will stay a tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed\nremains 65 kt based on the previous reconnaissance mission.\nSome weakening is likely to begin within 24 hours due to Jose\nmoving over colder waters.  Continued weakening is in the forecast\ndue to the marginal water temperatures, although the system could\neventually move over the warm Gulf Stream again if it takes a\nsouthward turn in the right spot.  Thus, the intensity forecast is\nabout the same as the previous one through 72 hours, then is\nleveled off at 45 kt to account for the warmer water possibility.\n\nJose continues to move erratically northward, with the center\nwobbling due to the convective bursts.  The hurricane should turn\ntoward the northeast and east over the next two days as it moves\naround a ridge over the western Atlantic.  After that point, the\nforecast becomes more uncertain, with some models curving the system\nsouth and west under a building high over the northeastern United\nStates, and others drifting the cyclone eastward just out of the\nreach of the ridge.  With the guidance shifting eastward on this\ncycle, the official forecast will follow the trend, although not\nshift as strongly to the east since it wouldn't take a very large\ntrack error to either catch or miss that ridge.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore\nof the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some\ndirect impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm\nwarning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of\nthe Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from\nDelaware to southern New England.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,\nand much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New\nEngland and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these\nlocations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3\ninches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,\nsouthern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches\nare expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket and Cape Cod. This\nrainfall could cause isolated flooding. Elsewhere, Jose is expected\nto produce light rainfall with little risk of flooding over the\nmid-Atlantic coast and the northeast states.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 36.0N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 37.1N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 38.5N  70.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 39.6N  68.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  21/0600Z 40.0N  67.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 39.3N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  23/0600Z 38.7N  66.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  24/0600Z 38.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nInteraction of the small core of Maria with the mountainous terrain\nof Dominica caused only a slight diminution of the intensity of\nthe hurricane.  Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft\nafter the center passed the island indicate an intensity of about\n135 kt, at the high end of category 4 strength.  Another Air Force\naircraft has begun investigating Maria, and preliminary data\nfrom the plane suggest that the hurricane may have regained\ncategory 5 intensity.  Maria will be moving through a low-shear\natmospheric environment and mainly over warm waters for the next\ncouple of days.  Some fluctuations in intensity are possible in the\nearly part of the forecast period due to eyewall replacement events.\nLand influences could cause some weakening within the next 36\nhours.  Later in the forecast period, a modest increase in vertical\nshear could cause some weakening.  The official intensity forecast\nis near or above the latest model consensus.\n\nAfter smoothing out the trochoidal wobbles of Maria's eye, the\ninitial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt.\nThere is little change to the track forecast reasoning from the\nprevious advisory package.  A weak ridge situated over the western\nAtlantic is expected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48\nhours, and on this track the center of the hurricane is forecast to\npass near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.\nAfter that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to\nweaken, partially due to the influence of the large circulation of\nHurricane Jose.  This should cause Maria to turn northwestward, then\nnorth-northwestward by day 4-5.  There is fairly good agreement\namongst the reliable guidance, and the new official track forecast\nis very similar to the previous one.  This is generally near the\nleft side of the envelope of model tracks, and favors the ECMWF and\nthe corrected consensus predictions.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria will affect portions of the northern Leeward Islands as an\nextremely dangerous major hurricane during the next day or so.\n\n2. Maria is likely to affect Puerto Rico and the U.S. and British\nVirgin Islands as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight\nand Wednesday.  Preparations to protect life and property should be\nrushed to completion.\n\n3. A life-threatening storm surge, accompanied by large and\ndestructive waves, is expected for the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and\nBritish  Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.\n\n4. Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides from heavy rainfall\nare expected across the Leeward Islands, including Puerto Rico and\nthe U.S. and British Virgin Islands.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 16.0N  62.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 16.7N  63.4W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 18.5N  66.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...NEAR PUERTO RICO\n 48H  21/0600Z 19.3N  67.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  22/0600Z 21.2N  70.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  23/0600Z 23.7N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  24/0600Z 26.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Otis Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n200 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nThere has been very little change in Otis' cloud structure during\nthe past several hours.  The modest southerly shear and dominant\nsurrounding stable air mass continue to inhibit convective\ndevelopment around the circulation center, other than in the\nnorthern portion.  A 0518 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass, however,\nstill indicated winds of tropical-storm-force in the aforementioned\nconvective mass.  Subsequently, the initial intensity is held at 35\nkt.  Weakening is again forecast and the global models agree with\nOtis becoming a remnant low during the next day or so, and\ndissipation during the next couple of days.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be basically a drift\nwest-southwestward.  Within the next 12 hours, Otis is forecast to\nbe steered southwestward by a mid-level ridge situated over the\ncentral Pacific, and this motion is expected to continue until\nOtis dissipates.  The official forecast has changed little from\nthe previous one, and remains near the multi-model consensus\nguidance.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 19.0N 127.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 18.6N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 17.9N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norma","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Norma Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n300 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nConventional satellite imagery shows continued deterioration of\nNorma's cloud pattern this evening.  All that remains of the\nassociated deep convection is fragments in the northeast quadrant.\nA 0518 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated winds of only 30 kt in the\nnorth and east portions of the cyclone.  Therefore, Norma is\ndowngraded to a depression for this advisory.  Norma is forecast to\nfurther weaken while traversing decreasing oceanic temperatures.  An\nintruding drier and more stable marine layer will also contribute to\nNorma's demise.  The official forecast is just an update of the\nprevious one and shows Norma becoming a remnant low in 36 hours and\ndissipating in 2 days.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or\n280/5 kt.  Norma is expected to move west during the next 24 hours,\nwithin the southwestern peripheral mid-tropospheric flow of a\nsubtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico over the\neastern Pacific.  Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to gradually\nturn northwestward as a remnant low.  The NHC forecast is just a bit\nsouth of the previous package due to the position adjustment based\non the scatterometer data, and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  19/1800Z 21.7N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/0600Z 22.1N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  20/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":57,"Date":"2017-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  57\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nSatellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane\nHunter aircraft indicate that Jose's overall structure and wind\nfield have changed little since the previous advisory. Although the\nhighest 700-mb flight-level wind and SFMR surface winds reported by\nthe aircraft were 66 kt and 57 kt, respectively, these winds were\nobserved in areas of little or no convection. Given the large size\nof Jose's wind field, it unlikely that the aircraft sampled the\nstrongest winds, and the initial intensity is held at 65 kt. The\naircraft also measured a central pressure of 976 mb, indicating that\nJose remains a strong cyclone.\n\nThe low-level center has been wobbling around inside the larger\ninner-core circulation, resulting in a forward motion a little west\nof due north or 350/06 kt. Overall there is no significant change to\nthe previous track forecast. The global and regional models remain\nin good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning toward the\nnortheast and east over the next couple days as it moves around a\nridge over the western Atlantic. On days 3-5, the models agree on a\nhigh-latitude ridge building to the north of the cyclone, forcing\nJose to move slowly or drift southward over the North Atlantic. The\nofficial forecast track is similar to the previous advisory, and\nlies close to a blend of the various consensus models.\n\nSince the previous advisory, shallow convection has been increasing\nin both depth and areal coverage in the southeastern semicircle,\nwhile deeper convection has remained over the northwestern\nsemicircle. The recent formation of convection to the southeast is\nbeginning to give Jose the appearance of developing a large\ntruck-tire eye with a diameter of approximately 100 nmi. Such eye\npatterns typically indicate a fairly stable cyclone that doesn't\nweaken or weakens only slowly. Although the center of Jose will be\nmoving over 21C SSTs by 36-48 h, a significant portion of the large\ncirculation will still be situated over water south of the Gulf\nStream that is positioned along 40N latitude, which will maintain a\nsoutherly feed of warm, moist, unstable air into and north of the\ncenter. Given the combination of the aforementioned favorable\nthermodynamic conditions and only modest vertical wind shear of\n15-20 kt, the intensity forecast remains basically unchanged from\nthe previous advisory, and is close to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA\nconsensus models.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning\nis in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of the\nMassachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the\nleft of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and\nmagnitude of impacts along the U.S. east coast from Long Island to\nsouthern New England.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and\nmuch of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New\nEngland and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these\nlocations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3\ninches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,\nsouthern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches\nare expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This\nrainfall could cause isolated flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 36.5N  71.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 37.8N  70.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 39.1N  69.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 39.9N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 39.9N  67.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 39.2N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  23/1200Z 38.7N  67.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  24/1200Z 38.4N  67.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate\nthat Maria regained category 5 status shortly after the last\nadvisory, and that it is currently maintaining an intensity near 140\nkt with a central pressure near 927 mb.  The aircraft data suggests\nan outer wind maximum that could be the start of an eyewall\nreplacement cycle, but this feature does not yet have a good\nsignature in radar data or microwave imagery.\n\nThe eye of Maria has been wobbling quite a bit, but a smoother\nlong-term motion is 300/9.  There is little change to the track\nforecast reasoning or the forecast track since the previous\nadvisory.  A weak ridge situated over the western Atlantic is\nexpected to steer Maria west-northwestward through 48 hours, and on\nthis track the center of the hurricane is forecast to pass near or\nover the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  After that\ntime, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken,\npartially due to the influence of the large circulation of Hurricane\nJose off the U.S. east coast.  This pattern should cause Maria to\nturn northwestward and then north-northwestward by days 4-5.  The\ntrack guidance is tightly clustered through 72 h and fairly well\nclustered at 120 h, and the new track is to the left of center of\nthe cluster mainly between the GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nMaria should remain in a generally favorable environment through 48\nh, and based on this and the latest guidance the new intensity\nforecast keeps Maria at 135-140 kt up to the time of landfall in\nPuerto Rico.  After crossing Puerto Rico, the upper-level winds are\nexpected to become less favorable, and the intensity forecast shows\na slow weakening that follows the upper edge of the guidance.  A\ncomplication to the intensity forecast is that there will likely be\nfluctuations caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on\ntop of the general trends shown in the official forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria will continue to affect portions of the Leeward Islands\ntoday and the core of the hurricane is expected to move near or over\nPuerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. Everyone\nin these areas should follow advice from local officials to avoid\nlife-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.\n\n2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains\nand on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the near-\nsurface winds indicated in this advisory.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 16.3N  63.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 17.0N  64.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 18.0N  65.7W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 36H  21/0000Z 18.8N  67.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  21/1200Z 19.6N  68.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 72H  22/1200Z 21.5N  70.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  23/1200Z 24.5N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  24/1200Z 27.5N  72.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Otis","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Otis Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152017\n800 AM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nOtis has been devoid of deep convection for about 10 hours, and\nthe cyclone only consists of a compact swirl of low-level clouds.\nTherefore, Otis is now classified as a remnant low, and this is\nlast advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center.  ASCAT data\nfrom last night indicated that maximum winds were near 35 kt.\nAssuming some spin down since that time due to the loss of deep\nconvection, the initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt.  Continued\nweakening due to cool SSTs and dry air is expected, and Otis is\nexpected to dissipate in a day or so.\n\nThe remnant low has turned to the west in the low-level trade wind\nflow.  A west to west-southwest motion is expected until the system\ndissipates.\n\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 19.0N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  20/0000Z 18.6N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  20/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norma","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Norma Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n900 AM MDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nNorma continues to produce a small area of deep convection near\nand to the east of the estimated low-level center.  The initial\nintensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and a\nblend of the Dvorak final T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Norma\nis currently over 26 deg C SSTs, and it will be headed toward even\ncooler waters during the next couple of days.  These unfavorable\noceanic conditions combined with a dry atmosphere should cause Norma\nto continue weakening, and the depression will likely become a\nremnant low in about 24 hours or sooner.  The global models show the\nremnant low opening into a trough by 48 hours.\n\nThe depression is moving westward at 4 kt.  A west-northwestward to\nnorthwestward motion within the low-level flow is expected until\nthe system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast lies near the middle\nof the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/1500Z 21.6N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/0000Z 21.8N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  20/1200Z 22.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  21/0000Z 22.8N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":58,"Date":"2017-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Jose Discussion Number  58\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nSatellite imagery indicate that Jose's cloud pattern has improved\nsince the previous advisory. Curved band features have become more\nevident in all quadrants and the upper-level outflow has also\nexpanded and become more anticyclonic. Jose actually looks more like\na tropical cyclone now. Satellite intensity estimates have increased\nand were a consensus T3.5/55 kt at 1800Z. Since that time, the\nconvective pattern has continued to improve, including a burst of\nconvection with cloud tops colder than -60C having developed near\nand over the well-defined low-level center. Given the much improved\nsatellite cloud pattern, the intensity will remain 65 kt. An Air\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate\nJose by 2300Z.\n\nJose has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast\nand is now moving 025/07 kt. There is no significant change to\nthe previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model\nguidance remains in good agreement on Jose slowing down and turning\ntoward the northeast by Wednesday morning, followed by a turn toward\nthe east on Thursday as the cyclone moves around the north side of\ndeep-layer ridge. During the 72-120 hour period, a high-latitude\nridge is forecast to build to the north of Jose, forcing the\ncyclone slowly southward and southwestward over the far North\nAtlantic. The new official forecast track lies a little to the east\nof the consensus models, closer to the ECMWF solution.\n\nThe center and much of the inner core of Jose will be moving over\n21-22C SSTs by 36-48 h. However, a large portion of the hurricane's\ncirculation will still be located over much warmer water, which will\nmaintain a long, southerly fetch of unstable air into and to the\nnorth of the center. Since the vertical wind shear is expected to be\n20 kt or less, only gradual weakening is expected as per the\nprevious intensity forecasts, and the intensity models IVCN and\nHCCA.\n\nThe 34-kt wind radii were increased slightly in the northwestern\nquadrant based on 14-15Z ASCAT scatterometer wind data, offshore\nbuoy reports, and a 40-45 kt wind report from ship VRGH3.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning\nis in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and\nNantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would\nincrease the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast\nfrom Long Island to southern New England.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and\nmuch of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New\nEngland and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these\nlocations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 1 to 3\ninches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,\nsouthern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts. 3 to 5 inches\nare expected for Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Cape Cod. This\nrainfall could cause isolated flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 37.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 38.2N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 39.2N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  21/0600Z 39.7N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  21/1800Z 39.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 39.0N  67.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  23/1800Z 38.6N  68.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  24/1800Z 38.3N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nMaria has continued to strengthen this afternoon, with surface and\nflight-level winds from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft supporting an intensity of 145 kt, and the central\npressure inside the 5 n mi wide eye falling to 916 mb.  The\naircraft data also indicates that an outer wind maximum is present\nabout 20-30 n mi from the center, but this has not yet developed\ninto enough of an outer eyewall to stop the intensification in the\ninner eyewall.\n\nThe initial motion remains 300/9.  The forecast track philosophy\nremains the same, with the eye of Maria expected to move near the\nU. S. Virgin Islands tonight and across Puerto Rico on Wednesday,\nfollowed by a motion just north of the eastern Dominican Republic\nWednesday night and Thursday.  Subsequently, a break in the\nsubtropical ridge caused in part by Hurricane Jose should allow\nMaria to turn north-northwestward and northward by the end of the\nforecast period.  Only minor changes have occurred in the track\nguidance since the last advisory, and the new track has only minor\nadjustments from the previous track.\n\nSome additional strengthening is possible this evening before the\nouter eyewall becomes better defined or the cyclone reaches its\nmaximum potential intensity. It now appears likely that Maria will\nbe at category 5 intensity when it moves over the U. S. Virgin\nIslands and Puerto Rico, although there is a chance that the start\nof the eyewall replacement cycle might reduce the intensity a little\nbit.  The hurricane should weaken as it crosses Puerto Rico, and\nafter that proximity to Hispaniola and less favorable upper-level\nwinds are likely to lead to continued slow weakening.  The new\nintensity forecast remains at the upper edge of the intensity\nguidance.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's core is expected to move near or over St. Croix and\nPuerto Rico tonight and Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind,\nstorm surge, and rainfall impacts to portions of those islands.\nEveryone in these areas should follow advice from local officials to\navoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.\n\n2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains\nand on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the\nnear-surface winds indicated in this advisory.\n\n3. A hurricane warning also in effect for the remainder of the\nVirgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,\nwhere Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nheavy rainfall.\n\n4. A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and\nthe Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions\non Thursday.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 16.8N  64.0W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 17.5N  65.2W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  20/1800Z 18.4N  66.7W  130 KT 150 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO\n 36H  21/0600Z 19.3N  68.1W  125 KT 145 MPH...OVER WATER\n 48H  21/1800Z 20.2N  69.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  22/1800Z 22.5N  71.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 96H  23/1800Z 25.5N  72.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n120H  24/1800Z 28.5N  72.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norma","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Norma Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n200 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nNorma is on its way to becoming a remnant low.  Satellite\nimages indicate that only a very small amount of deep convection is\nleft, and it is confined to the southeast of the center.  The\ninitial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on ASCAT data from a few\nhours ago.  Cool waters and dry air should cause additional\nweakening, and Norma is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low\ntonight.  The models agree that the remnant low should continue to\nspin down and ultimately dissipate in about 2 days.\n\nThe depression is now moving west-northwestward at 6 kt.  A slow\nwest-northwest to northwest motion in the low-level flow is expected\nuntil the system dissipates.  The NHC track forecast lies near the\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  19/2100Z 21.9N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  20/0600Z 22.3N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  20/1800Z 22.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  21/0600Z 23.2N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":59,"Date":"2017-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  59\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nAn Air Force plane once again investigated Jose tonight, and\nalthough the central pressure remained low, near 973 mb, the surface\nwinds were gradually decreasing and do not support hurricane\nstrength. This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak T-numbers\nwhich indicated weakening. On this basis, the initial intensity\nhas been lowered to 60 kt. Although the shear is not too high, Jose\nis moving over cool waters.  This should result in additional\nweakening and Jose is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in\nabout 48 hours.\n\nFixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Jose\nis moving toward the northeast or 040 degrees at 8 kt. Currently,\nJose in embedded within the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, but\nmost of the global models forecast the development of a ridge to the\nnorth in two days.  This new pattern should block the motion\nof the storm and Jose should begin to meander.  The NHC forecast is\nvery similar to the previous one and follows the ECMWF model and the\nHFIP corrected consensus model HCCA. It also uses the input from\nNOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning\nis in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and\nNantucket. Any deviation to the left of the NHC forecast track would\nincrease the likelihood and magnitude of impacts along the coast\nfrom Long Island to southern New England.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and\nmuch of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose will produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches\nare expected over eastern Rhode Island and southeast Massachusetts.\n2 to 4 inches are expected in Nantucket and Cape Cod, and 3 to 5\ninches in Martha's Vineyard. This rainfall could cause isolated\nflash flooding.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 37.9N  70.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 38.8N  69.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 39.6N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 39.7N  67.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  23/0000Z 38.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  24/0000Z 38.5N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  25/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nSince the previous advisory, WSR-88D radar data from San Juan\nPuerto Rico has shown the development of concentric eyewalls and\na double-wind maximum.  This has led to an increase in the size of\nthe 50- and 64-kt wind radii.  An earlier Air Force Reserve\nreconnaissance aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind of 157 kt\nand a few SFMR winds of 149-152 kt in the small inner eyewall\nbetween 2200 and 0000 UTC this evening.  Based on these data, the\ninitial wind speed was increased to 150 kt.  The minimum pressure\nestimated from earlier dropsonde data is 909 mb, which is the tenth\nlowest minimum pressure recorded in an Atlantic basin hurricane.\nSince the outer eyewall has become better defined and the winds are\nincreasing within the outer eyewall, it is likely that Maria's\nintensification will finally cease.  However, Maria is expected to\nremain an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane until landfall in\nPuerto Rico early Wednesday.  The passage of the core over Puerto\nRico should cause some weakening, but Maria is likely to remain a\nmajor hurricane for several more days. Increasing shear and cooler\nwaters over the western Atlantic in the wake of hurricanes Irma and\nJose will likely lead to additional weakening late in the period.\n\nMaria is moving between west-northwest and northwest at about 9 kt.\nA weak ridge over the western Atlantic is expected to steer the\nhurricane on this general heading over the next couple of days.\nThis track will bring the center of Maria over Puerto Rico and just\nnorth of the eastern Dominican Republic over the next day or so.\nAfter that time, a break in the ridge should cause Maria to turn\nnorth-northwestward, then northward by late in the week.  The track\nguidance is tightly clustered through 72 hours, yielding fairly high\nconfidence in the track forecast through that time.  There is some\nincrease in the spread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the GFS\nand HWRF farther west and faster, while the ECMWF is along the\neastern edge of the guidance and slow.  For now, the NHC track\nforecast is between the various consensus models at 96 and 120 h.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's core will pass near or over St. Croix within the next\nfew hours and will approach the southeastern coast of Puerto Rico\nearly Wednesday, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge, and\nrainfall impacts to portions of those islands.  Everyone in these\nareas should follow advice from local officials to avoid\nlife-threatening flooding from storm surge and rainfall.\n\n2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains\nand on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the\nnear-surface winds indicated in this advisory.\n\n3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the remainder of the\nVirgin Islands and the northern coast of the Dominican Republic,\nwhere Maria is expected to bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and\nheavy rainfall.\n\n4. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas and\nthe Turks and Caicos, where Maria could bring hurricane conditions\non Thursday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 17.3N  64.7W  150 KT 175 MPH\n 12H  20/1200Z 18.0N  65.8W  145 KT 165 MPH\n 24H  21/0000Z 18.9N  67.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  21/1200Z 19.9N  68.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  22/0000Z 20.9N  69.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  23/0000Z 23.3N  71.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  24/0000Z 26.2N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n120H  25/0000Z 29.5N  72.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Norma","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP172017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Norma Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172017\n800 PM PDT Tue Sep 19 2017\n\nAll that is left of Norma is a skeletal low-level circulation and\nsome cirrus debris clouds.  Organized deep convection has been gone\nfor quite some time, so this will be the last advisory.  The\nremnant low is forecast to gradually turn northwest and north and\nweaken over colder water.\n\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0300Z 22.1N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  20/1200Z 22.4N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  21/0000Z 22.8N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  21/1200Z 23.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":60,"Date":"2017-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  60\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nEnhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows considerable decay of\nyesterday afternoon's burst of deep convection near Jose's center.\nAn earlier GPM low-frequency microwave overpass revealed that the\nstrongest convection and associated winds were located in the north\nand west periphery of of the cyclone's circulation, a wind pattern\nindicative of non-tropical systems.  Based on the deteriorating\ncloud pattern and a blend of the latest subjective T-numbers from\nTAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt.  Jose has\nbegun its movement north of the Gulf Stream's north wall and over\ndecreasing oceanic temperatures.  Subsequent CIMSS shear analysis\nand the SHIPS model indicate modest southwesterly shear undercutting\nthe outflow aloft.  These inhibiting factors should result in\nadditional weakening, and the official forecast calls for Jose to\nbecome a post-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, if not sooner.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 040/7 kt.\nThere is no significant change to the previous track forecast or\nphilosophy.  The large-scale models continue to agree on Jose\ndecreasing in forward speed and gradually turning toward the east on\nThursday morning in response to a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough\nmoving eastward out of the eastern Canadian provinces.  Through\nthe remainder of the forecast period, high pressure is expected to\nbuild over the northeast U.S. and adjacent waters, causing Jose to\ndrift southward and southwestward through the 72 hour period.  After\nthat time, the cyclone is expected to basically meander in the\nnorthwest Atlantic within the weak steering flow produced by the\naforementioned high pressure to the northwest of the cyclone and a\nbuilding mid-level ridge to the southeast.  The NHC forecast a\nlittle slower at days 4 and 5 and closely follows the GFS/ECMWF\n(GFEX) consensus and the forecast input from NOAA Ocean Prediction\nCenter.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm warning\nis in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and\nNantucket.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, and\nmuch of the U.S. east coast.  These swells are likely to cause\ndangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days\nin these areas.\n\n4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of\n1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches\nin Nantucket as it passes offshore today into Thursday.  This\nrainfall could cause isolated flash flooding.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 38.4N  70.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 39.1N  69.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  21/0600Z 39.6N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 39.5N  67.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 39.2N  68.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  23/0600Z 38.9N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  24/0600Z 39.2N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  25/0600Z 39.5N  68.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nRadar observations from the San Juan WSR-88D and wind data from an\nAir Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that\nMaria has just about completed an eyewall replacement.  Based on\nthe now-dominant outer eyewall, the eye diameter has increased from\n10 n mi to 30 n mi.  This has likely contributed to some weakening,\nand based on the latest observations from the Hurricane Hunters, the\nintensity is set at 135 kt which is at the top of category 4 range.\nAlthough there has been a slight reduction of intensity, Maria\nremains an extremely dangerous hurricane.  Some weakening is\nlikely while the system crosses Puerto Rico.  Later in the forecast\nperiod, less favorable upper-level winds should cause further\nweakening, but Maria is likely to remain a large and powerful\nhurricane for the next 5 days.  The official intensity forecast is\nnear or a little above the model consensus.\n\nMaria continues to move between west-northwest and northwest at\nabout 9 kt.  The flow on the south side of a weak mid-level ridge\nover the western Atlantic is expected to steer the hurricane on this\ngeneral heading over the next couple of days.  This track will bring\nthe center of Maria across Puerto Rico and just north of the eastern\nDominican Republic over the next day or so.  After that time a\nbreak in the ridge, partially associated with Tropical Storm Jose,\nshould cause Maria to turn north-northwestward, then northward by\nthe end of the forecast period.  The track guidance remains tightly\nclustered through 72 hours, giving fairly high confidence in the\ntrack forecast through that time.  There is some increase in the\nspread of the models at days 4 and 5, with the latest ECMWF\nprediction near the western edge of the guidance envelope but with\nall of the reliable models well offshore of the southeast U.S. at\nthe end of the period.  The official forecast is very close to the\nlatest FSU Superensemble track.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's core will make landfall over Puerto Rico within the\nnext couple of hours, bringing life-threatening wind, storm surge,\nand rainfall impacts to the island.  Everyone in Puerto Rico should\nfollow advice from local officials to avoid life-threatening\nflooding from storm surge and rainfall.\n\n2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains\nand on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the\nnear-surface winds indicated in this advisory.\n\n3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the Virgin Islands,\nthe northern coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and\nCaicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected\nto bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/0900Z 17.9N  65.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\n 12H  20/1800Z 18.6N  66.7W  125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND\n 24H  21/0600Z 19.5N  68.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 36H  21/1800Z 20.5N  69.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 48H  22/0600Z 21.5N  70.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 72H  23/0600Z 24.2N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 96H  24/0600Z 27.3N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  25/0600Z 30.5N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":61,"Date":"2017-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  61\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nThe Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this\nmorning and found maximum flight-level winds of 78 kt at 5,000 feet\nand peak SFMR surface winds of 56 kt.  Based on these data, the\ninitial wind speed is set at 60 kt, which is slightly higher than\nthe previous estimate.  Jose remains a sprawling cyclone, with\ntropical storm force winds extending 180 n mi from the center.\nAlthough Jose does not have a purely tropical appearance, it still\nhas a warm core and well-defined convective bands, especially to the\nnorth of the center.\n\nJose is moving northeastward at 7 kt toward a mid- to upper-level\ntrough over eastern Canada.  A slightly slower northeastward to\neast-northeastward motion is expected through tonight.  Thereafter,\nthe trough is expected to lift out, allowing a mid-level high\npressure system to build to the northwest of Jose.  This will likely\ncause the storm to reverse its course and drift westward or\nwest-southwestward.  In about 3 days, however, the models suggest\nthat Jose will be caught in very weak steering currents, and the NHC\nofficial track forecast now shows Jose stationary from 72 to 120\nhours.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving over a tight SST gradient associated\nwith the north wall of the Gulf Stream current, and it will likely\nremain over this gradient for the next several days.  These\nrelatively cool SSTs and dry air should cause a slow weakening\ntrend, and a gradual transition to a post-tropical cyclone.  The NHC\nintensity forecast is not too different from the previous one and is\nin best agreement with the consensus models.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of New England during the next couple of days,\nand a tropical storm warning is in effect for Cape Cod, Block\nIsland, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\n4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of\n1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches\nin Nantucket as it passes offshore today into Thursday.  This\nrainfall could cause isolated flash flooding.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 39.0N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  21/0000Z 39.5N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 39.8N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 39.6N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  23/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  24/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  25/1200Z 39.3N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nThe last radar image from the San Juan WSR-88D was received at 0950\nUTC when Maria's eye was located only about 5 n mi off the\nsoutheastern coast of Puerto Rico.  Subsequent 1-minute imagery from\nthe GOES-16 satellite, as well as surface observations, indicate\nthat the eye made landfall a little south of Yabucoa Harbor, Puerto\nRico, around 1015 UTC.  Now that the center is moving over the\nmountainous terrain of the island, the eye has become cloud filled,\nand the infrared satellite presentation has degraded. Without radar\nvelocity data, the initial intensity is incredibly uncertain, but my\nbest guess is 120 kt based on a typical inland decay rate.  Maria's\ncenter is expected to move off the northern coast of Puerto Rico\nsoon, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled\nto intercept the center early this afternoon and provide a better\nestimate of how much Maria has weakened.\n\nThe initial motion is northwestward, or 305/10 kt.  This\nnorthwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next 48 hours,\nfollowed by a turn toward the north by days 4 and 5, while Maria\nmoves between a mid-level high centered southeast of Bermuda and a\nbroad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into\nthe Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance is tightly clustered this\ncycle, and there were no significant changes made to the NHC\nforecast track.\n\nOnce Maria moves off the coast of Puerto Rico, it will take some\ntime for the structure to reorganize over the warm waters of the\nAtlantic Ocean.  However, the shear is expected to be less than 10\nkt for the next 24-36 hours, and Maria has an opportunity to\nrestrengthen a bit over that time period.  After 36 hours, a gradual\nincrease in shear is likely to lead to a commensurate gradual\ndecrease in the hurricane's intensity through the end of the\nforecast period.  Since the SHIPS model, in particular, responds to\nthe favorable conditions for intensification, the NHC intensity\nforecast lies just above the intensity consensus through much of the\nforecast period.\n\nSince we don't have radar imagery from San Juan, and the eye has\nbecome cloud filled in satellite imagery, the hourly position\nupdates are being discontinued.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's core is moving over Puerto Rico, with life-threatening\nwind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts continuing over the\nisland. Everyone in Puerto Rico should follow advice from local\nofficials to avoid life-threatening flooding from storm surge and\nrainfall. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Virgin\nIslands, but conditions should gradually improve there later today.\n\n2. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains\nand on high-rise buildings could be much stronger than the\nnear-surface winds indicated in this advisory.\n\n3. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for the northern coast of\nthe Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the\nsoutheastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous\nwind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/1500Z 18.4N  66.5W  120 KT 140 MPH...OVER PUERTO RICO\n 12H  21/0000Z 19.2N  67.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 24H  21/1200Z 20.2N  69.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 36H  22/0000Z 21.2N  70.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 48H  22/1200Z 22.4N  71.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  23/1200Z 25.3N  72.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  24/1200Z 28.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  25/1200Z 31.5N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":62,"Date":"2017-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  62\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nJose has generally changed little since the previous advisory.\nGeostationary and microwave satellite data show that the storm is\nstill producing well-defined convective bands on the north side of\nthe circulation.  Some of these outer bands are approaching the\nsouthern New England coastline.  The initial wind speed is held at\n60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data.  This estimate is also in\nfair agreement with an ASCAT pass from earlier today, which also\nshowed that Jose has a very large wind field.  Another Air Force\nreconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system\nlater this evening, and should provide a better assessment of\nJose's intensity.\n\nThe tropical storm is moving northeastward at 7 kt steered by a\ntrough over eastern Canada.  This trough should cause Jose to move\neast-northeastward at a slower pace tonight.  Thereafter, the\ntrough is expected to bypass the storm, leaving Jose in very weak\nsteering currents.  As a result, Jose is forecast to drift westward\nbeginning Thursday night and continue in that direction through\nthe weekend.  The models have trended a little to the west at the\nend of the forecast period, and the NHC track forecast has followed\nsuit.\n\nJose is currently moving along the edge of the Gulf Stream, and is\nexpected to remain over this oceanic environment for a few more\ndays.  These relatively cool waters, a progressively drier airmass,\nand an expected increase in wind shear should cause a gradual\nweakening trend during the next several days.  The models are in\ngood agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast is\nlargely an update of the previous one.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of New England during the next day or two, and a\ntropical storm warning remains in effect for Cape Cod, Block Island,\nMartha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.\n\n2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to\nsouthern New England during the next several days.  Please see\nproducts issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\n4. Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of\n1 to 2 inches over Martha's Vineyard and Cape Cod, and 2 to 4 inches\nin Nantucket as it passes offshore.  This rainfall could cause\nisolated flash flooding.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2100Z 39.2N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 39.6N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 39.6N  67.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 39.6N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 39.5N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  23/1800Z 39.3N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  24/1800Z 39.3N  70.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  25/1800Z 39.4N  71.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft found that Maria's\ncenter moved off the northwestern coast of Puerto Rico just before\n1800 UTC, but the hurricane appears to have taken quite a hit from\nthe high mountains of the island.  The aircraft measured a maximum\nflight-level wind of 106 kt to the east of the center and SFMR\nsurface winds as high as 91 kt.  The initial intensity is therefore\nset to 95 kt.  The central pressure has also risen considerably, and\nthe latest report from the airplane is 957 mb.\n\nMaria may have taken a temporary jog west-northwestward across\nPuerto Rico, likely due to topographic effects, but the longer-term\nmotion remains northwestward, or 305/10 kt.  Maria should maintain\na northwestward motion for the next 36 hours while it remains on\nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-level high over the western\nAtlantic.  After 36 hours, Maria is expected to turn northward\nbetween the high and a broad trough extending from Tropical Storm\nJose southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico.  The updated track\nguidance remains in excellent agreement on this scenario, and the\noverall guidance envelope has shifted a bit eastward on this cycle.\nThe new NHC forecast is therefore nudged a little east of the\nprevious forecast toward the various consensus aids.\n\nIt may take some time for Maria's structure to reorganize itself\nnow that it is back over water.  Although the intensity models are\nnot all that enthusiastic about strengthening, the environment\nlooks conducive for intensification, and the NHC forecast lies at\nthe upper bound of the guidance, closest to the HWRF solution.  It\nwould not be surprising, however, if Maria eventually strengthens\nmore than shown here.  Some weakening is expected by days 4 and 5\ndue to increased shear, as well as Maria possibly moving over the\ncold wake of Tropical Storm Jose to the east of the Carolinas.\n\nWe would like to thank the crew of the latest Air Force Reserve\nmission for their incredible service today.  After beginning their\nmission this morning before the center first moved onshore, the crew\nwent above and beyond, returning to Curacao to refuel, and then\nheading back to Puerto Rico to catch Maria's center when it first\nmoved back off the coast.  The data collected by the crew was\nincredibly important for us to analyze Maria's intensity and\nstructure after moving across the island, and we are grateful for\ntheir effort.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's core is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto\nRico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should subside\nthrough early Thursday.  However, heavy rainfall is expected to\ncontinue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the\nisland, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.  Everyone in\nPuerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to\navoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the\nsoutheastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous\nwind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  20/2100Z 18.8N  67.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  21/0600Z 19.5N  68.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  21/1800Z 20.5N  69.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  22/0600Z 21.6N  70.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  22/1800Z 22.9N  71.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 72H  23/1800Z 25.8N  72.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  24/1800Z 29.0N  72.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  25/1800Z 31.5N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":63,"Date":"2017-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  63\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nThere has been little overall change to Jose's cloud pattern since\nthe previous advisory, as shallow convective bands remain over the\nnorthern and western portions of the circulation. Some of these\nbands are moving across portions of eastern Cape Cod, Martha's\nVineyard, and Nantucket.  The initial intensity has been reduced to\n50 kt, which is supported by earlier aircraft data and a recent\npartial ASCAT pass that showed peak winds of 40-45 kt\n\nWater vapor imagery shows that the trough moving over eastern Canada\nhas now passed to the northeast of Jose.  As a result, the tropical\nstorm is beginning to slow down.  Jose is foreast to meander within\nweak steering currents over the next day or so. After that time, the\ncyclone is forecast to drift westward or southwestward as a ridge\nbuilds to the northwest and north of the cyclone over the weekend.\nThere has been little change in the track guidance, and the new NHC\nforecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.\n\nCool sea surface temperatures, a drier mid-level airmass, and\nincreasing westerly shear should result in gradual weakening during\nthe next several days.  Jose is likely to lose its remaining\nconvection and become post-tropical in about 48 hours.  The global\nmodels predict dissipation in 96 to 120 h, and the new NHC forecast\nfollows suit.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the\nnext day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for\nCape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.\n\n2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of\nsouthern New England during the next few days. Please see products\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0300Z 39.5N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 39.6N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 39.5N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 39.5N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 39.4N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  24/0000Z 39.1N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  25/0000Z 39.0N  70.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation is a little better organized than\na few hours ago, and Maria now has a large ragged eye.  However,\ndata from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the\nwinds are still 95 kt, while the central pressure has remained\nunchanged oscillating near 959 mb.  Even with the current favorable\nlow-shear environment and warm ocean, it takes in general about 24\nhours for the boundary layer of the hurricane to recover from the\npassage over high terrain, in this case Puerto Rico.  In addition,\nthe reconnaissance plane reported two wind maxima and two concentric\neyewalls in the previous penetration, and it just reported that the\ninner one has collapsed in the last fix.  This suggest that an\neyewall replacement cyclone has occurred.  With this complex\nscenario, the NHC forecast allows for some small increase in\nintensity as suggested by guidance and brings Maria back to category\n3 status in about 24 hours.\n\nMaria continues right on track, moving toward the northwest or 310\ndegrees at 8 kt.  The hurricane is expected to be steered\nnorth-northwestward and northward around a subtropical ridge over\nthe Atlantic for the next 2 to 3 days. The only change to the\nprevious forecast is a small shift to the east by the end of the\nforecast period as indicated by most of the track models.  By then,\nMaria should have reached the northwestern edge of the ridge. The\nNHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and\nvery near the HFIP corrected consensus.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is moving away from the northwestern coast of Puerto\nRico, and strong winds and storm surge flooding should continue to\nsubside through early Thursday.  However, heavy rainfall is expected\nto continue, and catastrophic flash flooding is occurring on the\nisland, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.  Everyone in\nPuerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to\navoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the\nsoutheastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous\nwind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0300Z 19.2N  67.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  21/1200Z 19.9N  68.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  22/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  22/1200Z 22.3N  70.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  23/0000Z 23.7N  71.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  24/0000Z 26.8N  72.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  25/0000Z 29.5N  72.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  26/0000Z 32.0N  71.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":64,"Date":"2017-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  64\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nJose's structure continues to consist of bands of shallow to\nmoderate convection that are well removed to from the center, mainly\nin the northeast and northwest quadrants.  Dvorak Final-T numbers\nfrom TAFB and SAB have fallen a little bit, but due to the lack of\ndeep convection near the center, it isn't clear how applicable the\nDvorak technique is in this case.  The intensity has therefore been\nheld at 50 kt, in deference to earlier ASCAT and aircraft data.\nAnother reconnaissance mission is scheduled for later this morning,\nand this should provide more information on Jose's intensity and\nwind radii.\n\nThe intensity guidance is still in very good agreement that Jose\nwill continue to gradually weaken.  I have no reason to doubt this,\nsince Jose will remain over cold waters and embedded within a fairly\ndry environment.  Little change was made to the previous intensity\nforecast, except to show Jose becoming post-tropical within 36\nhours, based on the latest GFS and ECMWF model runs.\n\nA deep-layer trough to the northeast of Jose has continued to pull\naway, and the tropical storm has come to a near stop.  The\nestimated motion is 90/2 kt, but it may be even slower than that.\nThe global models continue to agree that Jose will remain within\nweak steering flow through the forecast period.  The new NHC\nforecast remains close to the various consensus aids and keeps Jose\nnearly stationary through 96 h.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. While the center of Jose is forecast to remain offshore of the\nU.S. east coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some direct\nimpacts in portions of extreme southeastern New England during the\nnext day or two, and a tropical storm warning remains in effect for\nCape Cod, Block Island, Martha's Vineyard, and Nantucket.\n\n2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of\nsouthern New England during the next few days.  Please see products\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next several days in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0900Z 39.8N  67.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 39.7N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 39.8N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 39.8N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  23/0600Z 39.6N  69.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  24/0600Z 39.4N  69.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  25/0600Z 39.5N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nAlthough the large, 40 n mi diameter, eye of the hurricane is still\na little ragged-looking, it is gradually becoming better defined,\nand a ring of cold cloud tops is intensifying around the eye.  The\ncurrent intensity estimate is 100 kt based on earlier Air Force\nHurricane Hunter data and recent Dvorak classifications from TAFB\nand SAB.  Maria is likely to move over warm waters with moderate\nsouthwesterly vertical shear for the next couple of days.  Maria's\nwell-developed upper-level outflow suggests that shear is probably\nnot having much influence over the hurricane at this time.  Although\nthe numerical guidance is not very aggressive about intensification,\nbased on the current trends of the cloud pattern, some strengthening\nseems likely over the next day or so.  Later in the forecast period,\nshear will probably cause gradual weakening.  The official intensity\nforecast is a little above the latest model consensus.\n\nMaria continues its northwestward motion, at about 315/8 kt.  The\nhurricane is expected to turn north-northwestward and northward\naround a subtropical ridge over the Atlantic for the next 2 to 3\ndays.  Late in the forecast period, a mid-level high over the\nnortheastern U.S. could slow the forward motion somewhat.  This\nhigh is forecast by the global models to subsequently weaken\nhowever, which should allow Maria to turn north-northeastward in\nthe flow on the northwestern edge of a subtropical ridge over the\nwest-central Atlantic.  The official track forecast lies between\nthe corrected consensus guidance and the latest ECMWF prediction.\nThis is quite similar to the previous NHC track.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue, and catastrophic flash\nflooding is occurring in Puerto Rico, especially in areas of\nmountainous terrain.  Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to\nfollow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening\nflooding conditions.\n\n2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the\nsoutheastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous\nwind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/0900Z 19.6N  68.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  21/1800Z 20.5N  69.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  22/0600Z 21.6N  70.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  22/1800Z 22.9N  71.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  23/0600Z 24.3N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  24/0600Z 27.4N  72.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 96H  25/0600Z 30.0N  72.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  26/0600Z 32.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":65,"Date":"2017-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  65\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nSatellite and radar data suggest that Jose is gradually spinning\ndown.  The convective bands are relatively shallow, except over the\nwestern quadrants where the cloud tops are a bit colder.  The\nouter-most bands are very near the offshore islands of southeastern\nNew England, where there have been reports of tropical-storm-force\nwinds, especially in gusts.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters\ninvestigated Jose earlier this morning, and a combination of the\nflight-level winds, SFMR observations, and dropsonde data support\nholding the initial intensity at 50 kt.\n\nThe intensity forecast appears straightforward.  Cool waters, dry\nair, and an expected increase in wind shear should cause Jose to\nsteadily weaken and lead to post-tropical transition within the\nnext 24 hours.  The post-tropical system is predicted to degenerate\ninto a trough by day 4, as suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models.\nThe NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous one,\nand it lies close to the consensus models.\n\nAs previously predicted, Jose has become stationary.  Since the\nstorm is expected to remain in weak steering currents for the next\nfew days, Jose is forecast to meander off the coast of southeastern\nNew England until it dissipates.  This track prediction is not too\ndifferent from the previous one, and it lies near the middle of the\nguidance.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring\nwithin the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are\nexpected to continue through tonight.\n\n2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of\nsouthern New England during the next few days.  Please see products\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next few days in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z 39.6N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 39.6N  68.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  23/0000Z 39.5N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  23/1200Z 39.4N  69.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  24/1200Z 39.1N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nMaria is maintaining a large, 40 nm wide eye, and overall, the\nhurricane's satellite presentation has not changed since the\nprevious advisory.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\ninvestigating the system has not measured flight-level winds as\nhigh as last evening's mission, and the central pressure has\nremained relatively steady.  Although there were higher SFMR winds\nmeasured, especially to the northeast of the center, the flight\nmeteorologist reported that the instrument appears to be running\n5-10 kt too high.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 100\nkt.\n\nMaria appears to be moving over the remnant cold wake leftover from\nHurricane Irma, but it should begin to move over an area of higher\noceanic heat content during the next 24 hours or so.  Therefore,\nsome strengthening is still forecast, although it is not especially\naggressive given what the latest intensity guidance is showing.\nGradual weakening is likely from 48 hours onward due to some\nincrease in southwesterly shear, as well as lower oceanic heat\ncontent over the western Atlantic.  Still, Maria is expected to\nremain a hurricane for the next 5 days.\n\nThe initial motion is northwestward, or 310/8 kt.  Maria will be\nmoving between a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda and a\nbroad trough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into\nthe northern Gulf of Mexico.  As a result, Maria is expected to\nturn gradually north-northwestward to north-northeastward by the\nend of the forecast period, keeping it over the waters of the\nwestern Atlantic after moving by the Turks and Caicos Islands and\nthe southeastern Bahamas.  The track models continue to be tightly\nclustered, and the updated NHC track forecast lies right along the\nprevious forecast, down the middle of the guidance envelope.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Flash flood emergencies continue in portions of Puerto Rico due\nto persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.\nCatastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in\nareas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should\ncontinue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these\nlife-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the\nsoutheastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous\nwind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/1500Z 20.2N  69.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  22/0000Z 21.0N  69.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  22/1200Z 22.2N  70.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  23/0000Z 23.6N  71.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  23/1200Z 25.1N  71.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  25/1200Z 30.5N  71.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  26/1200Z 33.0N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":66,"Date":"2017-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  66\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nJose is still producing some convective bands well to the north and\nwest of the center.  The outer-most bands are brushing the coast of\nextreme southeastern New England, where tropical-storm-force winds,\nespecially in gusts, have been occurring for much of the day.  An\nASCAT pass from earlier today showed maximum winds near 45 kt, and\nsince the cyclone appears to have weakened since that time, the\ninitial wind speed is lowered slightly to that value.\n\nCool waters, dry air, and an increase in wind shear should cause\nJose to continue weakening, and model simulated satellite images\nsuggest that Jose should become a post-tropical cyclone in about 24\nhours, or sooner.  The intensity models are in very good agreement,\nand the NHC forecast is an update of the previous one.\n\nJose has been meandering off the southern New England coastline\nduring the past several hours.  Since the cyclone is expected to\nremain in weak steering currents, little motion is forecast during\nthe next few days.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the\nprevious one and in general agreement with the consensus aids.\n\nThe initial wind radii have been modified based on ASCAT data from\naround 1500 UTC.  The forecast wind radii follows the guidance\nprovided by NOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring\nwithin the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are\nexpected to continue through tonight.\n\n2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of\nsouthern New England during the next few days.  Please see products\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z 39.6N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 39.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 39.5N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  23/0600Z 39.2N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  23/1800Z 39.0N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 72H  24/1800Z 38.9N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nThe last pass of today's Air Force reconnaissance flight found\nmaximum flight-level winds of 117 kt in the northeastern eyewall,\nwhich supported increasing the intensity to 105 kt in the 2 PM\nintermediate advisory.  The SFMR instrument continued to report\nhigher winds, as was mentioned in the previous discussion.  However,\nMaria has been moving over the Navidad and Silver Banks to the\nnorth of the Dominican Republic, where water depths are less than\n30 meters deep in some places, and it is likely that shoaling\neffects inflated some of these numbers.\n\nMaria continues to move northwestward, or 315/8 kt, around the\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of\nBermuda.  As Maria moves around this high, and toward an elongated\ntrough extending from Tropical Storm Jose southwestward into the\nGulf of Mexico, it is expected to turn north-northwestward within\n24 hours and then north-northeastward by the end of the forecast\nperiod.  This motion will take Maria's center very close to the\nTurks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas during the\nnext 24 hours, but the hurricane should then stay over the waters\nof the western Atlantic through day 5.  The track models remain\nstable, and there is very little cross-track spread even at day 5.\nThe guidance has slowed down a bit by the end of the forecast\nperiod due to Maria possibly interacting with a shortwave trough\nmoving off the southeastern U.S. coast, and the new NHC forecast is\ntherefore a little slower than the previous one at that time.\n\nSHIPS diagnostics indicate that southwesterly shear will be\nincreasing over Maria during the next 12-24 hours, even though the\nhurricane will begin to move over an area of higher oceanic heat\ncontent.  While it can't be ruled out that Maria might still\nstrengthen a bit, the preponderance of the guidance suggests that\nthe cyclone will only maintain its intensity for the next 12 hours\nand then begin a gradual decrease in strength on Friday.  That\ntrend should continue through the end of the forecast period, but\nMaria is expected to remain a hurricane through day 5.  For now,\nthe NHC forecast remains just above the intensity consensus,\nhedging toward the slower decay shown by the SHIPS model.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due\nto persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.\nCatastrophic flooding is occurring on the island, especially in\nareas of mountainous terrain, and everyone in Puerto Rico should\ncontinue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these\nlife-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the\nDominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the\nsoutheastern Bahamas, where Maria is expected to bring dangerous\nwind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.\n\n3. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of\nthe southeastern United States on Friday.  These swells are likely\nto cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the\ncoast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain\nwell offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  21/2100Z 20.8N  69.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  22/0600Z 21.6N  70.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  22/1800Z 23.0N  71.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  23/0600Z 24.5N  71.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  23/1800Z 26.1N  72.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  24/1800Z 28.9N  72.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  25/1800Z 31.0N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  26/1800Z 33.0N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Jose","Adv":67,"Date":"2017-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  67\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nThe center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past\n12 hours.  The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical\ncyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well\nto the west and northwest of the center.  Based on this, Jose has\nbeen declared post-tropical.  Surface observations from extreme\nsoutheast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical\nstorm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical\nstorm warnings in those locations remain in place.  The National\nHurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the\nthreat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided.\n\nThe initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent\nASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW\nquadrant.  No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and\nJose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters\nof the North Atlantic for the next 3 days.  Most of the global\nmodels still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h.\n\nJose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift\nslowly westward.  Very little change has been made to the track\nforecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will\ncontinue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually\ndissipates around day 4.  The NHC forecast remains close to the\nvarious track consensus aids.\n\nBased on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii\nwere extended in the NW and NE quadrants.  However this wind appears\nto be primarily occuring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring\nwithin the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are\nexpected to continue through tonight.\n\n2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of\nsouthern New England during the next few days.  Please see products\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z 39.5N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  22/1200Z 39.6N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  23/0000Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  23/1200Z 39.3N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  24/0000Z 39.1N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/0000Z 38.8N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017\n\nSatellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and is\nsurrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane\nHunter plane has penetrated the eye a couple of times this evening\nand the crew reported that the eye had a diameter of 35 nmi and that\nit has become better defined. Flight-level winds increased a little\nbit during the last penetration and supported an intensity of 110 or\n115 kt. At this time, I prefer the keep the winds at 110 kt since\nthe SFMR measurements were a little lower.  The central pressure is\nestimated at 955 mb.\n\nThe atmosphere diagnosed by the models, as well as a warm ocean\nalong the forecast track, should favor an increase in intensity.\nHowever, most of the models, suggest that Maria will change little\nand will remain a category 3 hurricane for the next day or two. The\nNHC forecast follows the intensity consensus ICON and shows no\nsignificant change through that time. Gradual weakening should\nbegin later in the forecast period as Maria reaches higher latitudes\nand cooler waters.\n\nSatellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Maria is moving\ntoward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The track of the\nhurricane has been and will be controlled by the flow around a\nnarrow subtropical ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. Maria is\nreaching the western edge of that high, and this should cause the\nhurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward with no\nsignificant change in forward speed for the next 3 days. After that\ntime, Maria should encounter the mid-latitude southwesterly flow and\nrecurve. The reliable guidance is remarkably clustered during the\nnext 4 days. This significantly increases the confidence in the\ntrack forecast which is in between the multi-model consensus TVCX\nand the HFIP corrected consensus.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due\nto persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.\nEveryone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local\nofficials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of\nthe southeastern United States on Friday.  These swells are likely\nto cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the\ncoast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain\nwell offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0300Z 21.0N  70.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  22/1200Z 22.0N  70.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  23/0000Z 23.5N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  24/0000Z 26.7N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  25/0000Z 29.3N  72.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  26/0000Z 31.2N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  27/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Jose","Adv":68,"Date":"2017-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  68\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nSince the last advisory, a small burst of deep convection has been\nobserved near the center of Jose.  The cyclone is still embedded\nwithin a dry environment and located over cold SSTs, so it will be a\nlittle surprising if the convection is maintained for an extended\nperiod of time this morning.  The intensity of the post-tropical\ncyclone remains 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, and these winds\nare likely occuring over open water well to the northwest of Jose's\ncenter.  Surface observations on Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and\nBlock Island indicate that tropical storm conditions are still\noccuring in some locations along the coast.  The prior ASCAT pass\nalso showed a wide area of tropical-storm-force winds just offshore\nof Cape Cod, and there is still some opportunity for these winds to\nreach the coast this morning.  Therefore, the tropical storm\nwarnings remain in effect, and the NHC will continue to issue\nadvisories on Jose.\n\nNo significant change has been made to the track or intensity\nforecast.  All of the dynamical models remain in good agreement that\nJose will remain trapped in weak steering flow while gradually\nspinning down for the next several days.  Although the cyclone has\nbeen drifting west for the past 12 hours, a slow turn back toward\nthe east should begin sometime later today and continue through at\nleast day 3.  The NHC forecast track is close to the TVCX and HCCA\nconsensus aids.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring\nwithin the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are\nexpected to continue this morning.\n\n2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of\nsouthern New England during the next few days.  Please see products\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z 39.7N  68.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  22/1800Z 39.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  23/0600Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 36H  23/1800Z 39.2N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  24/0600Z 38.9N  67.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/0600Z 38.5N  67.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near\n0500 UTC indicated that the central pressure of Maria had risen to\n959 mb, accompanied by flight-level winds and SFMR surface wind\nestimates that supported an intensity near 110 kt.  Since that time,\nthe cloud tops in the eyewall have cooled, but the eye has become\nless distinct in conventional satellite imagery.  The initial\nintensity is held at 110 kt pending the arrival of the next plane\nnear 1200 UTC, but it is possible this is a little generous.  Maria\nis starting to be affected by 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical\nwind shear, with the first sign of this being a decrease in\nconvective banding in the western semicircle.\n\nThe large-scale models forecast some shear to persist through the\nforecast period, and as a result the intensity guidance predicts a\ngradual weakening.  In addition, after 48 h the forecast track takes\nthe center of Maria over waters that were cooled significantly by\nthe passage of former Hurricane Jose.  Based on these factors, the\nnew intensity forecast calls for a slow weakening during the first\n48 h similar to the previous forecast, then calls for more weakening\nthan previously forecast as the cyclone reaches the colder waters.\n\nThe initial motion is 315/6.  Maria will be moving between the\nsubtropical ridge to the east and a broad trough over the\nsoutheastern United States and the adjacent Atlantic waters during\nthe next several days.  This pattern should cause the hurricane to\nturn north-northwestward and then northward during the next 72 h.\nThe track guidance is tightly clustered during this part of the\nforecast, and the new forecast track is an update of the previous\ntrack.  After 72 h, the guidance becomes a little more divergent.\nThe Canadian and ECMWF models are on the left side of the envelope\nshowing a generally northward motion, while the GFS is on the right\nside showing a north-northeastward motion.  This part of the\nforecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the old\nforecast and the consensus models to account for the ECMWF/Canadian\nforecasts.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due\nto persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands.\nEveryone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local\nofficials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of\nthe southeastern United States today.  These swells are likely to\ncause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the\ncoast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain\nwell offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/0900Z 21.6N  70.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  22/1800Z 22.6N  71.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  23/0600Z 24.2N  71.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  23/1800Z 25.9N  72.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  24/0600Z 27.4N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  25/0600Z 29.5N  72.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  26/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  27/0600Z 33.5N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Jose","Adv":69,"Date":"2017-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  69\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nThe large circulation of Jose has not changed much during the past\nseveral hours, with a small burst of moderate-to-deep convection\nrotating around the center.  Satellite classifications support\nreducing the winds to 40 kt for this advisory.  Surface observations\nare still showing sustained tropical-storm-force winds in the\nwarning areas, so advisories will be maintained on Jose. These winds\nshould diminish this afternoon or evening according to all of the\nmodel guidance as Jose gradually weakens.  The intensity forecast is\na little lower than the previous one, showing a slow decay of the\nwinds over cold waters, which is well supported by the latest global\nmodel guidance.\n\nJose has been erratically moving during the past 24 hours, with a\nsouthwestward drift most recently noted.  The system is expected to\nstay trapped in light steering flow and move little for the next\ncouple of days, then take a more westward turn by day 3 as the\ncirculation of Maria and a ridge over the northeastern United States\nsteer the weak cyclone. However, all models suggest it will be quite\nweak by day 3 and open up into a trough on day 4.  Only small\nchanges were made to the previous forecast.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring\nover portions of extreme southeastern New England.  These\nconditions are expected to continue through this afternoon.\n\n2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of\nsouthern New England during the next few days.  Please see products\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.\n\n3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the\nU.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip\ncurrent conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 39.5N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  23/0000Z 39.4N  69.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  23/1200Z 39.3N  69.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  24/0000Z 38.9N  68.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  24/1200Z 38.8N  68.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/1200Z 38.5N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nEven though Maria's eye has become cloud filled since the previous\nadvisory, reconnaissance data indicate that the hurricane has not\nweakened.  The highest flight-level wind measured by the plane was\n121 kt, accompanied by SFMR winds as high as 109 kt, so the initial\nintensity will remain 110 kt.  Microwave data and reports from the\nplane indicate that the eye has opened up on the southwest/west\nside, which is likely an indicator of increasing southwesterly\nshear.  This shear is expected to persist for at least the next 36\nhours, but Maria will be moving over 28-29 degree Celsius water\nduring that time.  Therefore, only a very gradual reduction in wind\nspeed is expected for the next 2 days.  After that time, Maria will\nbegin to move over a cold pool left behind by Jose, where sea\nsurface temperatures are 26 degrees Celsius or colder.  Additional\nweakening is therefore anticipated on days 3 through 5, and the NHC\nintensity forecast is a little lower than SHIPS, LGEM, and the\nintensity consensus to account for the possible effect of the\ncolder waters.\n\nMaria continues to move northwestward, or 325/7 kt, around the\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of\nBermuda.  The hurricane should turn north-northwestward later today\nand then northward in 24-36 hours when it begins to move between\nthe high and an elongated trough extending southwest of Jose.\nAlthough a general northward motion is expected through the end of\nthe forecast period, some notable speed differences develop among\nthe track models from day 3 and beyond.  The ECMWF and UKMET are\nthe main outliers, lying on the western side of the guidance\nenvelope.  To account for those possible solutions, the NHC track\nforecast leans a little left of the TVCN multi-model consensus\ntoward the end of the forecast period.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Flash flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the\nDominican Republic due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's\ntrailing rainbands.  Continue to follow advice from local\nofficials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are beginning to reach the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and will last for several days.  These\nswells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip\ncurrents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria\nforecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.\n\n3. Maria will be closer to the east coast of the United States and\nBermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine\nwhat, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/1500Z 22.3N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  23/0000Z 23.5N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  23/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  24/0000Z 26.5N  72.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  24/1200Z 27.9N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  25/1200Z 30.0N  71.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  26/1200Z 32.0N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  27/1200Z 34.0N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Jose","Adv":70,"Date":"2017-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL122017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number  70\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nAfter 70 advisories, enough is enough.  The tropical-storm-force\nwinds from Jose have finally subsided and moved out of the\nsouthern New England.  Thus, the wind hazard to land has decreased,\nand this will be the last advisory on Jose since it is already\npost-tropical. A slow decay over cold water is forecast while the\nlow drifts southeastward to southward.  The cyclone should\ndegenerate into a trough within 3 days as forecast by the global\nmodels.\n\nThe swell and rip current threat will remain across large portions\nof the U.S. east coast for quite some time, due to the wave field\nfrom both Jose and Maria.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 39.3N  69.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  23/0600Z 39.1N  69.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  23/1800Z 38.7N  68.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  24/0600Z 38.4N  67.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  24/1800Z 38.2N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Lee Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nThe mid-level circulation from Lee separated from the low-level\ncenter two days ago and moved northward around the eastern\nperiphery of a large upper-level trough.  A large convective burst\nover the mid-level center yesterday then caused a new low-level\ncenter to develop while it moved on the northern side of the upper\ntrough. ASCAT and ship data indicate that the small circulation is\nnow well defined, and since deep convection has persisted near the\ncenter, advisories on Lee are being restarted. The initial wind\nspeed is 30 kt, which could be conservative given the healthy\nstructure seen on the last-light visible and recent microwave data.\n\nCold upper-level temperatures from the upper trough should mitigate\nthe effect of marginally warm waters for the next few days while Lee\nremains in a low-shear environment.  The depression is expected to\nstrengthen over the next few days until westerly shear is forecast\nto increase. The official forecast is similar to the model guidance,\nalthough it shows an earlier peak more coincident with the\nlower-shear, warmer-water environment.  This wind speed forecast is\ndifficult because Lee is a very small tropical cyclone, which\nnotoriously have rapid changes, both up and down, in intensity.\n\nLee is moving northward at about 6 kt.  The depression should turn\nto the northeast and east over the next couple of days while it\nmoves around a ridge over the tropical central Atlantic.  Lee is\nforecast to become trapped beneath a mid-latitude ridge in a few\ndays, which should cause the cyclone to drift at long range.  It\nshould be noted that models have a rather weak representation of\nLee at the present time, which causes this to be an uncertain\nforecast.  For now, the forecast is closest to the ECMWF, which\nhas the most coherent cyclone to follow.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 30.8N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 31.7N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 32.3N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 32.3N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 32.1N  45.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 31.4N  43.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 30.5N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 29.5N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nA ragged eye has re-appeared during the past several hours, but\noverall the satellite presentation of Maria has not changed much\nduring the past several hours.  The initial intensity is therefore\nheld at 110 kt pending data new data from an ongoing NOAA research\nmission and an upcoming Air Force Reserve flight.  According to\nvarious analyses, Maria is under the influence of 20 kt of\nshear from the southwest, which has apparently eroded the eyewall a\nbit on that side of the storm.  This shear may abate some in about\n24 hours, although Maria will also be moving over an area of\ngradually lowering oceanic heat content.  Maria's intensity is\ntherefore only expected to decrease very gradually during the next\n48 hours.  After that time, the shear is expected to pick up again,\nand Maria will be moving over the cold wake left behind by Jose.\nAs a result, a steadier weakening should ensue on days 3 through 5.\nThe NHC intensity forecast remains closest to the ICON intensity\nconsensus and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory.\n\nMaria is turning around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level\nhigh centered south of Bermuda, and the initial motion estimate is\n335/8 kt.  The hurricane should turn northward by 36 hours when it\nmoves between the high and a developing cut-off low near the U.S.\nGulf coast, and that northward motion, with some east-west wiggles,\nis likely to continue through day 5.  The new track models have\nshifted significantly westward on this cycle, leaving the\ninterpolated version of the previous forecast (OFCI) by itself on\nthe eastern edge of the guidance suite.  Oddly enough, the ECMWF\nmodel went from being on the west side of the guidance envelope to\nthe east side, so the westward shift of the new NHC forecast on\ndays 3 through 5 only goes as far as that model and the TVCN\nconsensus.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican\nRepublic due to Maria's heavy rains over the past few days.\nContinue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these\nlife-threatening flooding conditions.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are affecting the coast of the southeastern\nUnited States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life-\nthreatening rip currents for the next several days.\n\n3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and\nBermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine\nwhat, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.\n\n4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in\nthe United States, please monitor information from your local\nNational Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  22/2100Z 23.3N  71.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  23/0600Z 24.3N  71.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  23/1800Z 25.9N  72.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  24/0600Z 27.5N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  24/1800Z 28.8N  72.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  25/1800Z 30.7N  72.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  26/1800Z 32.5N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  27/1800Z 34.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nSeveral microwave overpasses between 2100 and 2200 UTC indicated\nthat Lee was becoming better organized, at least at the mid-levels.\nIn particular, a WindSat overpass near 21Z indicated that a\nmid-level eye was already forming.  Since that time, however, cloud\ntops have warmed, the CDO has shrunk, and a GPM overpass around 0100\nUTC showed that most of the convection is currently confined to the\nsoutheast semicircle of the tropical storm. The UW-CIMSS ADT\nsupports an intensity of 35 kt, and the TAFB Dvorak analyst\nindicated that the subjective classification would have been higher,\nif the technique wasn't constrained by the fact that classifications\non Lee only recently restarted.  Based on these data, the initial\nintensity has been increased to 35 kt.\n\nThe intensity forecast for Lee is highly uncertain.  The tropical\nstorm is very small, and small cyclones often quickly strengthen or\nweaken.  Furthermore, Lee is small enough that some of our models\n(and many of our observing platforms) may have trouble resolving the\ninner core of the storm.  Given the current convective state of Lee,\nsignificant strengthening in the short term seems unlikely.\nHowever, the cyclone is expected to be in a fairly unstable, low\nshear environment for at least the next 3 days, so it is possible\nthat rapid intensification could occur at some time during that\nperiod.  On the other hand, I can't rule out that the cyclone could\ndissipate entirely, as depicted by the GFS, within a couple days.\nFor now, my forecast is closest to the HWRF for the first 72 h,\nsince that model tends to do well in low-shear environments and\nshould have sufficient resolution to model Lee's core.  After that\ntime, the forecast is close to the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus\nmodels.\n\nLee has continued to move north around 6 kt.  Little change has been\nmade to the track forecast, and Lee is still forecast to move around\na subtropical ridge for the next 72 h.  At days 4 and 5, a ridge\nbuilding between Lee and Maria to the west should cause a turn more\ntoward the south, as long as Lee is sufficiently deep to be steered\nby that feature.  The forecast continues to be close to the ECMWF,\nsince it is still the global model with the strongest representation\nof Lee, in line with the NHC forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 31.5N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 32.2N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 32.5N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 32.4N  46.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 32.1N  45.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 31.3N  43.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 30.0N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  28/0000Z 29.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017\n\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and the Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle\nlaunched from the NOAA plane have sampled the eye and the\nsurroundings of Maria early this evening. An Air Force plane also\narrived and so far has penetrated the eye a couple of times. Based\non the data from these platforms, the maximum winds are still 110 kt\nin the eyewall that surrounds a large eye of about 35 n mi in\ndiameter. There are no reports of a double wind max at this time so\nno eyewall replacement cycle is anticipated soon. The current shear\nis forecast to decrease, but the hurricane is moving toward a region\nwith less oceanic heat content. The combination of these two factors\nshould result in a very gradual decay of the hurricane, and the NHC\nforecast keeps Maria as a category 3 at least for one or two more\ndays.\n\nSatellite and plane fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the\nnorth-northwest or 345 degrees at 8 kt, steered by a subtropical\nridge to the east of the hurricane. The ridge is forecast to amplify\nwestward during the next few days, but it is not expected to be\nstrong enough to block the northward motion of the hurricane. It\nwill however, force the hurricane to move slowly. Tonight's guidance\ncontinues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days, and the\nNHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope. After that\ntime, the GFS and EMWF are once again in competition, with the GFS\ndefining the western edge of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF the\neastern one. This makes the forecast a little  more uncertain.\nThe NHC forecast recurves Maria over the open Atlantic which is the\nsolution of the HFIP corrected consensus and the multi-model\nconsensus.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of\nthe southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf\nand life-threatening rip currents for the next several days.\n\n3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and\nBermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine\nwhat, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas.\n\n4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in\nthe United States, please monitor information from your local\nNational Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0300Z 24.1N  71.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 12H  23/1200Z 25.3N  72.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  24/0000Z 27.0N  72.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  24/1200Z 28.5N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  25/0000Z 29.7N  72.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  26/0000Z 31.7N  72.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  27/0000Z 33.5N  72.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  28/0000Z 35.5N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nNot much has changed with Lee over the past six hours.  The\nconvection previously observed in the SE quadrant appears to have\nrotated around the tropical storm and faded, but a 0609 UTC SSMI\noverpass indicates that a new burst has since taken its place.\nDvorak intensity estimates range from 30 to 35 kt, so the intensity\nhas been held at 35 kt for this advisory.\n\nEvery aspect of the forecast is highly uncertain.  With regards to\nintensity, the model forecasts range from dissipation (GFS) to\na category 2 or 3 hurricane (HWRF, HMON).  Since the environment\nstill appears to be generally favorable for intensification, my\nforecast remains close to the HWRF, and a little above the intensity\nconsensus through 72 h.  The forecast shows gradual weakening after\nthat time as the shear increases.  Because Lee is so small, it is\nvery possible that the tropical storm could strengthen far more\nquickly than indicated here, at just about any time during the\nforecast period.  Likewise, rapid weakening could occur later in the\nperiod if the shear increases like the SHIPS diagnostics indicate it\nwill.\n\nAs uncertain as the intensity forecast is, the track forecast may be\neven more so.  The ECMWF now shows a relatively deep Lee drifting\nsouth for the next 72 hours, followed by a gradual turn toward the\nnorthwest. On the other hand, the GFS continues to depict a shallow\nLee (or its remnants) moving steadily eastward through the forecast\nperiod.  As a result, these two typically reliable models differ by\nmore than 900 miles at day 5.  The new official track forecast is\ngenerally close to the corrected consensus models, FSSE and HCCA,\nbut hedges somewhat toward the ECMWF since it's version of Lee is\nmore in line with the NHC intensity forecast.  As a result, the NHC\ntrack forecast has been shifted significantly to the west,\nespecially at 72 h and beyond, but still lies nearly 400 miles to\nthe east of the ECMWF.\n\nNeedless to say, confidence in the forecast is low, and significant\nchanges to the track or intensity forecast may be required during\nthe next day or two.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 31.9N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 32.3N  49.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 32.5N  48.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 32.2N  47.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 31.7N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 30.5N  44.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 29.8N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  28/0600Z 30.5N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nMaria is sending mixed signals regarding its intensity this\nmorning.  One one side, the 35 n mi wide eye has become better\ndefined in satellite imagery, and the last report from an Air Force\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated that the central\npressure had fallen to 952 mb.  On the other side, the\naircraft-reported winds decreased a little since the previous\nadvisory, with maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 110 kt and\nmaximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave\nRadiometer near 100 kt.  Based on the aircraft winds, the initial\nintensity is lowered to 105 kt.  Various analyses show that Maria is\nexperiencing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear, which is likely the\nreason for an asymmetric distribution of convection in the eyewall\nat this time.\n\nThe hurricane is likely to stay over warm water in an environment\nof light to moderate shear for the next 36-48 h.  The intensity\nforecast during this time will show some fluctuations in strength,\nwith the forecast lying near the upper edge of the intensity\nguidance.  After 48 h, the forecast track takes Maria over the cold\nsea surface temperatures left behind by former hurricane Jose,\nwhich are below 26C in some areas.  This should cause a pronounced\nweakening, and the new forecast is similar to the old forecast\nin showing such a trend during this time.\n\nThe initial motion remains 345/8.  Maria is currently being steered\nby a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane and a mid- to\nupper-level trough over the southeastern United States.  This\ncombination should cause a north-northwestward to northward motion\nfor the next couple of days. After that, the ridge is forecast to\namplify toward the northwest due to the influence of a mid- to\nupper-level ridge in the westerlies moving through the northeastern\nUnited States.  The track guidance has responded to this evolution\nby shifting westward since the last advisory, with several of the\nglobal models now calling for Maria to come close enough to the\nU. S. east coast to cause direct impacts before the system recurves\ninto the westerlies around 120 h. The latter part of the forecast\ntrack is also shifted to the west, but it lies to the east of the\nconsensus models and the center of the guidance envelope.  If the\ncurrent model trends continue, additional westward adjustments to\nthe track forecast will be necessary later today.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of\nthe southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf\nand life-threatening rip currents for the next several days.\n\n3. Maria will likely move between the east coast of the United\nStates and Bermuda by the middle of next week.  While the forecast\ntrack has moved closer to the U. S. east coast, it is still too soon\nto determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these\nareas.\n\n4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in\nthe United States, please monitor information from your local\nNational Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/0900Z 24.8N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 12H  23/1800Z 26.0N  72.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 24H  24/0600Z 27.7N  72.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 36H  24/1800Z 29.2N  72.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 48H  25/0600Z 30.3N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 72H  26/0600Z 32.0N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  27/0600Z 34.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  28/0600Z 36.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nLee remains a compact tropical cyclone as indicated by a 20-kt wind\nreport at 1200Z from ship LAQX5, located only 70 nmi east of the\ncenter. A 0943Z WindSAT pass had a few 40-45 uncontaminated wind\nvectors in the southwestern quadrant, so the intensity has been\nconservatively increased to 40 kt, which is closer to the satellite\nintensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT.\n\nThe initial motion is a slow drift toward the north or 360/02 kt,\nbased primarily on microwave satellite fixes. The global and\nregional models are in general agreement that Lee will move slowly\nat 5 kt or less for the next 5 days, and either make a wide or a\ntight anticyclonic turn back toward the west after 72 h due to a\nbuilding high pressure ridge to the north of the cyclone, and a\nstationary upper-level low located a few hundred nmi to the south.\nThe GFS makes the widest turn, whereas the ECMWF makes the tightest\nturn; the remainder of the model guidance lies somewhere between\nthose two extremes. Until the model guidance becomes more\nconvergent, the official NHC forecast track will remain basically\ndown the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the blend of the\nTCVA, TVCX, and HCCA consensus models.\n\nEarlier WindSAT and SSMI/S microwave data showed that Lee possessed\nan 8-10 nmi diameter eye-like feature in both the low- and\nmid-levels, indicating that the cyclone has a well-defined\ninner-core wind field, albeit quite small. The deep-layer vertical\nwind shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to decrease\nto 5-10 kt during the next 48 hours or so while Lee remains over\nSSTs of about 27.5 deg C. In addition, upper-level temperatures are\ncurrently running, and are expected to remain, about 3 deg C colder\nthan normal, which should ensure sufficient instability for the\ngeneration of inner-core thunderstorm activity through the entire\nforecast period. Based on the combination of these favorable dynamic\nand thermodynamic conditions, Lee is forecast to steadily develop\ninto a hurricane by 48-72 hours, with the only inhibiting factor\nbeing occasional intrusions of very dry mid-level air. However, the\nstrong instability/CAPE that will be available should allow for deep\nconvection to more or less persist near the center until modest\nwesterly shear begins to affect the cyclone by 72-120 hours, during\nwhich time a slow weakening trend is expected. The official\nintensity forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and is\nclose to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 31.9N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 32.2N  49.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 32.3N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 31.9N  47.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 31.3N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 30.5N  45.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 29.9N  45.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  28/1200Z 30.5N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nData from this morning's Air Force Hurricane Hunter flight suggests\nthat Maria's maximum winds may be decreasing a bit--a trend which\nwas noted in the previous advisory package.  The plane measured a\nmaximum 700-mb flight level wind of 102 kt and SFMR winds as high\nas 85 kt, neither of which supports an intensity of 105 kt.  The\ninitial intensity is therefore conservatively lowered to 100 kt.\n\nMaria is now located between a mid-level high centered near Bermuda\nand a cut-off low over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, both of\nwhich are steering the hurricane north-northwestward, or 340/7 kt.\nMaria should turn northward between these two features beginning in\nabout 12 hours, but its forward motion is likely to be impeded in a\ncouple of days by ridging developing over the northeastern United\nStates.  As a result, the hurricane's forward speed will decrease\nto 5 kt or less from day 2 and beyond.  The track guidance has\ncontinued to trend toward slower and farther westward solutions,\nand as we had foreshadowed in previous discussions, an additional\nwestward adjustment to the new NHC track forecast was required on\nthis cycle.  The updated forecast is between the GFS and ECMWF\nsolutions and close to the consensus aids and HCCA through day 3.\nAfter that time, the new forecast is slower and southwest of the\nconsensus aids, but still not quite as far west as the GFS, ECMWF,\nand UKMET solutions.\n\nBased on various analyses, the southwesterly shear over Maria has\ndecreased since yesterday, and it appears to remain relatively low\nfor the next 2 days or so.  Maria will be moving over very warm\nwaters during that time, although the depth of the warm pool does\ndecrease, and Maria's slower motion could increase the effects of\ncolder upwelled water.  After 48 hours, vertical shear is forecast\nto increase again, and a critical part of the intensity forecast\nwill be whether or not Maria moves over the cold wake left behind by\nJose.  The recent westward shifts in the forecast track make it more\nlikely that Maria would avoid the cold wake and move over the warmer\nGulf Stream waters.  Since the environment may not be as hostile as\nthe dynamical models are assuming, the NHC intensity forecast is a\nlittle above the intensity consensus for much of the forecast\nperiod.\n\nTo increase the sampling of the environment upstream and north of\nMaria, supplemental 0600/1800 UTC upper-air soundings are scheduled\nto begin from the eastern and southeastern United States this\nafternoon.  In addition, NOAA G-IV missions are scheduled to begin\nsampling the environment around Maria on Sunday.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast,\nand it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast next week.  Interests along the\ncoast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the\nprogress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be\nneeded for part of this area on Sunday.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the\nMid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday.  These swells will likely\ncause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of\nnext week.  For more information, please monitor information from\nyour local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/1500Z 25.4N  72.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  24/0000Z 26.7N  72.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  24/1200Z 28.3N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  26/1200Z 32.1N  73.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  27/1200Z 33.5N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  28/1200Z 34.5N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":22,"Date":"2017-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  22\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nCompact Lee continues to produce a small cluster of central deep\nconvection, along with several small curved bands in all quadrants.\nShip LAOX5 traversed through the center of Lee around 1400Z, and at\n1500Z reported a north wind of 30 kt about 20 nmi west of the\ncenter. Based on that ship observation, along with satellite\nintensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT, the\ninitial intensity remains at 40 kt for this advisory.\n\nThe initial motion is a slow drift toward the north-northwest or\n335/03 kt. The global and regional models have come into much\nbetter agreement on this cycle and now show a much tighter\nanticyclonic loop occurring during the forecast period, similar to\nthe current and previous runs of the ECMWF model. As result, the\nofficial NHC forecast is west of the previous advisory track, and\nlies close to a blend of the TCVA, TVCX, and HCCA consensus models.\n\nThere is no significant change to the previous forecast or\nreasoning. Due to the tighter loop that Lee is expected to make\nwithin the col region between an upper-level low to the south and a\nmid-latitude trough to the north, the deep-layer vertical wind shear\nis now forecast to remain less than 10 kt throughout the forecast\nperiod. Since the small cyclone will remain over SSTs near 27.5 C\nwithin a region of below-average upper-level temperatures, strong\ninstability should persist for the next 4 days. The only inhibiting\nfactor during that time will continue to be occasional intrusions of\nvery dry mid-level air that will temporarily disrupt the inner-core\nconvection. By 120 hours, gradual weakening is expected to begin\ndue to increasing westerly shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is\nunchanged from the previous advisory, and remains close to a blend\nof the IVCN and HCCA intensity consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 32.1N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 32.3N  49.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 32.2N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 31.8N  48.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 31.1N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 30.5N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 31.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  28/1800Z 32.4N  51.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nMaria's eye became cloud filled again today, although convective\ncloud tops have been cooling within the eyewall during the past\ncouple of hours.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane conducting a\nresearch mission has not yet sampled the entire circulation, but\nthey did report that the central pressure had fallen by a couple of\nmillibars.  In addition, a Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched\nby the plane has been measuring winds of 120-125 kt at altitudes\nof 1200-1300 ft, which supports maximum surface winds of 100 kt.\n\nThe initial motion remains north-northwestward, or 345/8 kt, but\nMaria is expected to turn northward by this evening or overnight\nwhile moving between a mid-level high near Bermuda and a cut-off low\nover the northeastern Gulf coast.  A blocking ridge sliding eastward\nover the northeastern U.S. should cause Maria to slow down to a\nforward motion of 5 kt or less beginning in about 36 hours, lasting\nthrough the end of the forecast period.  The track models appear to\nhave stabilized for the moment, with this being the first cycle in\nabout a day where they have not shown a significant westward shift.\nTherefore, the updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged\nfrom the previous forecast during the first 3 days.  The day 4 point\nwas shifted a little closer to the North Carolina coast to be closer\nto the consensus aids and the Florida State Superensemble, and all\nthe models indicate that a northeastward motion away from the coast\nshould begin by day 5.\n\nVertical shear will remain relatively low over Maria for the next\nseveral days, and the hurricane will be moving over warm waters at\nleast for the next 3 days.  However, the depth of the thermocline\ndoes become more shallow, with oceanic heat content values steadily\ndecreasing over the next 36 hours.  With Maria expected to slow\ndown, upwelling of colder water becomes a greater factor, and that\ncould modulate the hurricane's intensity during the next several\ndays.  Maria also could still move over Jose's cold wake in 4-5\ndays, which would likely cause additional weakening.  The NHC\nintensity forecast remains just above the intensity consensus,\nhowever it should be noted that the normally skillful HCCA model is\ntoward the lower end of the guidance suite.  It therefore wouldn't\nbe surprising if Maria weakened more than shown in the official\nforecast.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's forecast track has shifted closer to the U.S. east coast,\nand it is becoming increasingly likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast next week.  Interests along the\ncoast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the\nprogress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be\nneeded for part of this area on Sunday.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the\nMid-Atlantic coast tonight and on Sunday.  These swells will likely\ncause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of\nnext week.  For more information, please monitor information from\nyour local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 26.3N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 27.6N  72.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 29.1N  73.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 30.1N  73.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 31.1N  73.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 32.9N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 34.5N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  28/1800Z 35.0N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n400 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nASCAT-A/-B scatterometer data from around 16-17Z indicated that the\nlow pressure system located just offshore of the southwestern coast\nof Mexico that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has\nbecome much better defined, and it also possessed surface winds of\n30-33 kt. As a result, the system has been upgraded to a tropical\ndepression, the eighteenth of the eastern Pacific hurricane season.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 335/04, based primarily on microwave\nsatellite fixes. The latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good\nagreement on the cyclone moving slowly in a general\nnorth-northwestward direction around the western periphery of a\ndeep-layer ridge for the next 5 days. Some of the models like the\nGFS, Canadian, and HCCA take the system just inland near Cabo\nCorrientes in about 24 hours, whereas the remainder of the guidance,\nespecially the UKMET and ECMWF, keep the cyclone just offshore of\nthe southwestern coast of Mexico. The forecast motion for the next\nfew days is expected to be 5 kt or less, an indication that steering\ncurrents will be weak. Since there is no strong forcing that would\nwant to drive the depression inland over the mountainous terrain of\nsouthwestern Mexico, the official forecast calls for the center of\nthe cyclone to remain just offshore of the coast throughout the\nforecast period, similar to the ECMWF and UKMET solutions.\n\nGiven the well-defined circulation noted in the aforementioned\nscatterometer data, along with vertical wind shear decreasing to\nless than 10 kt by 24 hours, steady strengthening is forecast for\nthe next 24-36 hours. Afterwards, southeasterly to southerly shear\nis expected to gradually increase to 25 kt by 72 hours and more\nthan 30 kt in the 96-120 hour period, which should induce steady to\npossible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is above most\nof the guidance through 48 hours, and then is a little lower than\nthe guidance after that.\n\nDue to the depression being forecast to become a tropical storm by\ntonight, along with its proximity to the coast of Mexico, a tropical\nstorm warning has been issued from Manzanillo northward to El\nRoblito, including the Islas Marias. Heavy rainfall causing flash\nfloods and mudslides will also be possible within the warning area\nand extending well inland.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  23/2100Z 18.4N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  24/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  24/1800Z 19.4N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/0600Z 20.2N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  25/1800Z 21.2N 106.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  26/1800Z 22.7N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  27/1800Z 24.0N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  28/1800Z 26.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":23,"Date":"2017-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  23\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nAn ASCAT overpass around 0014 UTC caught the western half of Lee,\nand showed a maximum wind of about 40 kt.  On that basis, the\ninitial intensity has been increased to 45 kt, on the assumption\nthat the ASCAT instrument is undersampling the tiny circulation of\nthe tropical storm.\n\nA WindSat overpass from 2102 UTC indicated that Lee has developed a\ncoherent inner-core.  In fact, the 37 GHz RGB composite from the\nWindSat overpass indicated that a ring of shallow to moderate\nconvection surrounds the center of Lee, often a signature of a\nrapidly intensifying cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has\ntherefore been significantly increased for the first 48 hours of\nthe forecast, but falls short of explicitly forecasting rapid\nintensification.  Beyond that time, most of the intensity guidance\nis higher than before, and shows Lee maintaining hurricane\nthroughout the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is just a little\nabove the previous forecast at days 3-5, and close to the intensity\nconsensus.  It is still worth noting that small tropical cyclones\ncan go up or down quickly in intensity with little warning, and\nconfidence in the forecast is low, even with reasonable agreement\namong the intensity models.\n\nAfter turning almost due west earlier this evening, Lee appears to\nhave come to a near halt and is beginning to turn slowly toward the\nsoutheast. Lee continues to follow the trend of the ECMWF, so the\nNHC forecast has been moved farther west, closer to that model.\nAlthough the GFS continues to insist on a east to northeast track, I\nam treating it as an outlier at this time.  The remaining global\nmodels (and the HWRF) show that Lee will gradually rotate clockwise\naround a building mid-level ridge to the northwest for the next few\ndays before turning more toward the north at day 4.  The NHC\nforecast lies between HCCA and the ECMWF, but confidence in the\ntrack forecast is still low given the high model spread at this\ntime.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 31.9N  50.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nOnce again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive\nwith a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of\nvery deep convection.  Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane\nthis evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt.\nHowever, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both\nobjective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due\nto the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is\nkept at 100 kt in this advisory.  During the next 24 hours while\nMaria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm\nwaters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be\na significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same\nintensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the\nhurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then\nbegin.\n\nSatellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving\ntoward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between\nthe Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging\nsouthward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is\nforecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving\nslowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge\nslides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies\nand should recurve away from the United States coast. The track\nguidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude\n34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to\nthe North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and\nwith the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast\nwell east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and\nthe tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance.\nThese winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina\ncoast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and\nfollows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected\nconsensus HCCA.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the\ncoast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the\nprogress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be\nneeded for part of this area on Sunday.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the\nMid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  These swells will likely cause\ndangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next\nweek.  For more information, please monitor information from your\nlocal National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 27.0N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Pilar","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017\n\nThe structure of the cyclone near Mexico has improved over the past\n6 hours.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB now support\nan estimated intensity of 35 kt, so the system is now classified as\nTropical Storm Pilar.\n\nThe initial motion based on recent satellite fixes is 350/4 kt.\nPilar is still expected to move generally toward the north-northwest\nor north to the east of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico for\nthe next couple of days, and the primary source of uncertainty in\nthe forecast is possible interaction with land.  Due in part to\ninitial position uncertainty, the global models vary on whether\nPilar will clip the coast of Jalisco or remain just offshore, but\nthe model consensus now shows a landfall in about 24 hours.  The\nNHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the east toward the\nmodel consensus, but it is certainly possible that the tropical\nstorm could remain offshore and enter the Gulf of California.\nRegardless of whether the center makes landfall or not, heavy rain\nis still likely along the coast of Mexico through early next week.\n\nThe possibility of land interaction makes the intensity forecast\nparticularly difficult.  Very warm SSTs and only moderate shear\nshould allow for some strengthening for at least the next 36 hours.\nHowever, if Pilar makes landfall sooner than that, it will likely\nquickly weaken.  Since my track forecast shows Pilar making\nlandfall in about 24 hours, my intensity forecast peaks at that\ntime, and shows steady weakening thereafter.  Beginning around 48\nh, the GFS and ECMWF show that the shear will increase\nsubstantially, which should cause Pilar to quickly become a remnant\nlow, even if it remains over water.\n\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0300Z 18.7N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 19.3N 105.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 20.3N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 21.1N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 21.9N 105.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 23.3N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/0000Z 24.7N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":24,"Date":"2017-09-24 06:30:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Special Discussion Number  24\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n230 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nInfrared satellite imagery indicates that an eye is developing in\nLee's central dense overcast.  This special advisory is thus being\nissued to make Lee a hurricane with 65 kt winds.  The intensity\nforecast has been significantly increased based on the current\nintensity and trends, and the initial wind radii have been somewhat\nmodified. However, the track forecast is unchanged from the\nprevious advisory.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0630Z 31.9N  50.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 72H  27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":25,"Date":"2017-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  25\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nSince the earlier special advisory issued to make Lee a hurricane,\nthe eye has become much better defined in IR imagery, indicating\nthat the hurricane has continued to rapidly intensify.  The initial\nintensity has therefore been increased to 75 kt, based on an\napplication of the Dvorak technique to the latest IR imagery. It\nshould be noted that in this case, the intensity is fairly uncertain\ngiven the lack of ground truth and the small size of the cyclone.\n\nAt this point, it is hard to judge how long this period of rapid\nintensification will continue.  On one hand, Lee is expected to\nremain in a relatively unstable and low-shear environment for the\nnext several days.  On the other, despite the clearing of the eye,\ncloud tops have not cooled significantly overnight, and the slow\nmotion of Lee allows the possibility that the storm could begin to\ninteract with its own cold wake.  The NHC forecast brings Lee to\nnear major hurricane strength in 24 h, and then keeps Lee around\nthat intensity through day 4, similar to the FSSE model.  By the end\nof the forecast, higher shear, due in part to the outflow of\nHurricane Maria, could cause Lee to weaken, so the NHC forecast is a\nlittle lower at that point.\n\nLee is drifting southward for now, but a southeastward motion is\nstill forecast to begin later today.  Very little change has been\nmade to the NHC forecast, which is mainly just an update of the\nprevious one.  The models have come into better agreement that Lee\nwill be primarily steered for the next several days by a mid-level\nridge building to the northwest.  By day 5, a trough associated\nwith Maria and the subtropical ridge should cause Lee to begin\nrecurving.  Since the model spread has decreased, confidence in\nthat aspect of the forecast has increased this morning.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 31.8N  50.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 31.6N  49.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 31.1N  48.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 30.6N  48.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 30.2N  49.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 30.5N  51.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  28/0600Z 32.0N  52.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  29/0600Z 34.5N  51.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Maria has reported\n700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt in the southeastern eyewall,\nwith surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave\nRadiometer between 75-80 kt.  The plane also reported that the\ncentral pressure has risen to 948 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye.\nBased on these data, the initial intensity is nudged downward to\n95 kt, and it is possible that this is a bit generous.\n\nThe initial motion is 355/8, with Maria currently being steered by\nthe flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off\nlow/trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern\nUnited States.  A general motion toward the north or north-\nnorthwest should continue for the next 3 days or so, with some\ndecrease in forward speed as a mid-latitude westerly ridge moves\nthrough the New England states to the north of the hurricane.  After\n72 h, the westerlies move south and erode the subtropical ridge,\nwhich should allow Maria to recurve to the northeast.  The track\nguidance supports this scenario, although there is some\ndisagreement on the timing and the location of the recurvature.\nThe new forecast track lies a little to the north and west of the\nprevious track in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected consensus\nmodel.  However, the 72 and 96 h points lie a little to the east of\nthe forecasts of the GFS and ECMWF models.  Regardless of where the\nrecurvature occurs, Maria is a large cyclone and the associated\ntropical storm force winds could eventually reach a portion of the\nNorth Carolina coast.\n\nFluctuations in intensity appear likely during the next 24-36 h as\nMaria remains over warm water and in an environment of light or\nmoderate shear.  After that time, the hurricane is likely to\nencounter the colder water left by Hurricane Jose, which should\ncause a weakening trend.  The new intensity forecast follows the\noverall trend of the guidance and, except for a downward nudge at\n12 and 24 h, is similar to the previous forecast.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the\ncoast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the\nprogress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be\nneeded for part of this area later today.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the\nMid-Atlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous\nsurf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week.  For\nmore information, please monitor information from your local\nNational Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 27.9N  72.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 28.9N  72.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 30.1N  73.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 31.2N  73.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 32.1N  73.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 34.0N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  28/0600Z 35.0N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  29/0600Z 36.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Pilar","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n400 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nRecent microwave imagery from an AMSU overpass indicate that the\nlow-level structure of Pilar is rather messy.  It is possible that\nthe low-level center may be reforming under the convection to the\nwest, but there have been no recent higher resolution microwave or\nASCAT overpasses to confirm this.  Despite this, a blend of Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB now supports an initial intensity of 40\nkt.  Given a lack of any other data to go off of, that has been used\nas the basis for the initial intensity.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 335/4 kt, based in\npart on extrapolation from the previous motion.  There is still a\nhigh spread among the models in the first 24 h of the forecast.\nSeveral models, including the GFS, forecast that Pilar will move\nquickly inland and dissipate. A few others, like the HWRF, keep the\ncenter of Pilar just far enough offshore to maintain a coherent\nvortex for about 72 hours. Finally, the ECMWF is an outlier in\nshowing Pilar reforming to the west and stalling off the west coast\nof Jalisco for 24 h before moving inland and dissipating.  In the\ninterest of continuity, the NHC forecast for this advisory does not\naccount for any reformation of the center, and shows Pilar moving\nsteadily northward to north-northwestward until dissipation, like\nthe HWRF. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus,\nthough in this case so many members quickly show dissipation, that\nrelatively few members are averaged together.\n\nThe intensity forecast is also complicated by land interaction. SSTs\nnear the southwest coast of Mexico are very warm, and the shear is\nforecast to remain low for about 36 h.  The NHC intensity forecast\nonly shows slight intensification since significant land interaction\nis still expected.  In the event that Pilar stays farther offshore,\nit could become stronger than currently forecast. Regardless of how\nmuch Pilar intensifies, a sharp increase in shear around 48 h should\nquickly cause the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low and eventually\ndissipate.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/0900Z 19.1N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  24/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  25/0600Z 20.2N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  25/1800Z 21.0N 105.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  26/0600Z 22.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  27/0600Z 24.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":26,"Date":"2017-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  26\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nThe rapid intensification of Lee appears to have slowed for now.\nLee has a well-defined 10 to 15 n mi wide eye, but the cloud tops\nsurrounding the eye have not cooled since the previous advisory.\nSubjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and\nUW/CIMSS all support 75 to 80 kt, and the initial intensity is set\nat 80 kt.\n\nThe intensity forecast of the small hurricane is somewhat tricky.\nAs mentioned in the previous discussion, Lee is forecast to remain\nin a low-shear environment for the next few days, but the slow\nmotion of the hurricane is likely to cause upwelling and a decrease\nin sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane.  Although the\nintensity guidance is slightly lower this cycle, the new NHC\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and brings Lee to near\nmajor hurricane strength within the next 24 to 36 hours.  Late in\nthe period decreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear\nshould impart a weakening trend.\n\nLee has turned southeastward.  The track models are similar with\nthe overall forecast scenario of Lee moving slowly southeastward\ntoday, then turning west-southwestward or westward late Monday and\nTuesday as a high pressure ridge builds to the north and northwest\nof the hurricane. This ridge is forecast to weaken later in the\nweek, with Lee turning northward, then northeastward ahead of Maria\nas the mid-latitude westerlies dip southward.  There is a large\nbifurcation in the guidance models after about 48 hours, due to the\nlocation and timing of recurvature.  The NHC track leans closer to\nthe ECMWF and latest European ensemble mean, but the track forecast\nis of low confidence.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 31.4N  49.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 31.1N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 30.7N  48.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 30.2N  49.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 30.1N  50.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  27/1200Z 30.7N  51.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  28/1200Z 32.2N  52.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  29/1200Z 35.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nNOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have measured 700-mb\nflight-level winds of 101 to 117 kt over the eastern and\nsoutheastern portion of the Maria this morning.  However, surface\nwind estimates from the SFMR suggest that these winds are not mixing\nto the surface at the usual efficiency, as the highest SFMR winds on\nboth flights have been around 80 kt.  Based on a blend of the\nflight-level and SFMR winds the initial wind speed has been reduced\nto 90 kt.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 350/8 kt. A north-northwestward to\nnorthward motion is expected over the next 2 to 3 days while Maria\nis steered between a cut-off low/trough over the southeastern U.S.\nand eastern Gulf of Mexico, and a subtropical ridge over the\nsouthwestern Atlantic.  Maria is predicted to slow down within the\nnext couple of days as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of\nthe hurricane.  After 72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward as\nthe ridge to the north weakens and a broad mid-latitude trough\nbegins to move eastward over the northern United States.  The\ndynamical model guidance is in good agreement on this overall\nscenario, but there remains a fair amount of spread on the timing of\nrecurvature, with the ECMWF a little farther west and slower than\nmuch of the remainder of the guidance.  The updated NHC track is\nbetween the ECWMF and the various consensus aids, and very close to\nthe previous official forecast.  Since Maria is a large hurricane,\nthe associated tropical-storm-force winds could reach a portion of\nthe North Carolina coast by mid-week regardless of the exact\nforecast track.\n\nSome fluctuations in intensity could still occur during the next\nday or so while Maria moves over warm water and remains in a low\nshear environment.  Later in the forecast period, cooler waters\nfrom the wake of Hurricane Jose that traversed the same area last\nweek will likely cause a gradual decrease in intensity.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria's is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast by midweek.  Interests along the\ncoast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the\nprogress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be\nneeded for part of this area later today.\n\n2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-\nAtlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous\nsurf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of\nthe week.  For more information, please monitor information from\nyour local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 28.7N  72.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 29.7N  73.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 32.9N  73.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  27/1200Z 34.4N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  28/1200Z 35.5N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  29/1200Z 36.5N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Pilar","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n1000 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nPilar has been a difficult tropical storm to analyze and forecast\nthis morning.  The overnight short-wave and clean infrared channels\nfrom GOES-16 were suggestive that the system had accelerated\nnorth-northwestward unexpectedly.  However, the available microwave\nimagery was ambiguous and the spread between the SAB and TAFB Dvorak\nfixes was a degree.  I've re-positioned Pilar north-northwestward\nsignificantly, but not as much as may be needed later once\nadditional visible imagery becomes available.  The initial motion,\nthen, is a very uncertain 335 degrees at 7 kt, as Pilar is being\nadvected around a deep-layer ridge located over central Mexico.\nDespite the initial speed up in movement, the guidance insists that\nPilar should slow down shortly.  The official forecast track is\nquite similar to the previous one, with a course along or just west\nof the coast of southwestern Mexico.  This forecast is based upon a\nblend of the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models. However, the guidance has\na large spread (and some of the models could not explicitly track\nPilar), and a plausible alternative scenario is that the center of\nPilar makes landfall and dissipates shortly thereafter. This\nalternative is supported by the ECMWF, COAMPS, and HMON models.\nHopefully, the 12Z model runs will be more consistent.\n\nThe initial intensity of Pilar is unchanged at 40 kt, as the SAB and\nTAFB Dvorak Current Intensity classifications remained the same.\nWhile the SSTs are warm and the vertical shear is only moderate for\nthe next 24 to 36 hours, interaction with the high topography of\nsouthwestern Mexico may prevent any additional intensification.\nAfter about 24 to 36 hours, the vertical shear should go way up as\nPilar is affected by strong southerlies associated with a vigorous\nmid- to upper-tropospheric trough over the southwestern United\nStates.  The official intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF\nmodel, though none of the guidance now shows any significant\nintensification.  This new forecast is slightly below that from the\nprevious advisory and now calls for Pilar to become a remnant low in\nabout two days.  An alternative scenario, mentioned above, is for\nPilar to make landfall and dissipate sooner.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/1500Z 19.9N 105.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  25/0000Z 20.4N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  25/1200Z 21.1N 106.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  26/0000Z 21.8N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  26/1200Z 22.5N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":27,"Date":"2017-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  27\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nLee is displaying a 15 nm wide eye amidst a small central dense\novercast.  SAB, TAFB, Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU intensity estimates\nare all similar, indicating an initial maximum wind speed that\nremains 80 kt.\n\nThe LGEM and DSHIPS statistical guidance shows continued\nhurricane intensity for the next several days because of low\nvertical shear and warm waters.  However, the HWRF and COAMPS\ndynamical model output suggests quite a bit weaker system, perhaps\nbecause these models are anticipating that Lee will move over its\nown cold wake in a couple of days.  By day 4 or 5, the environment\nshould become hostile as cooler, drier air gets entrained into Lee\nand it experiences strong vertical shear from the outflow of\nHurricane Maria.  The official intensity forecast is in between the\nweaker dynamical models and the stronger previous advisory.\n\nThe system is moving toward the southeast at about 3 kt.  The\nhurricane should bend back toward the southwest and then west\nduring the next couple of days as a mid-level ridge gets\nre-established north of Lee.  By day 4 the system should recurve\nand accelerate toward the north-northeast or northeast, as it gets\npicked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track model\nconsensus has shifted westward through day 3 and then accelerated\nfaster toward the northeast by day 5.  The official track\nforecast follows suit, using the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach.\n\nLee is a tiny hurricane.  The 1236Z ASCAT pass showed that tropical\nstorm-force-winds only extend outward at most 30 nm from the\ncenter.  The global models indicate only a slightly larger hurricane\nover time and the official size forecasts are based upon the RVCN\nmulti-model scheme.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 31.3N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 31.0N  49.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 30.7N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 30.3N  50.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 30.4N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  27/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  28/1800Z 33.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  29/1800Z 37.0N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nRecent reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\naircraft indicate that Maria's pressure has fallen a few millibars\nsince this morning, but there has been little overall change in\nintensity.  A blend of the flight-level and Stepped Frequency\nRadiometer Microwave Radiometer data yields an initial wind\nspeed of around 90 kt.  Maria will be traversing warm water and\nremain in a low shear environment during the next day or so, and\nsome fluctuations in intensity are possible through Monday.\nAfter that time, Maria is forecast to move over cooler waters left\nover from Hurricane Jose.  This is likely to result in gradual\nweakening, however Maria is forecast to maintain hurricane status\nthrough the entire forecast period.\n\nMaria is moving just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The hurricane is\ncurrently being steered north-northwestward to northward between a\ncut-off low over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over\nthe southwestern Atlantic. The forward motion of the hurricane\nshould slow down over the next couple of days as a ridge builds to\nthe north of the system over the northeastern United States.  After\n72 h, Maria should turn east-northeastward and begin to recurve as\nthe deep-layer flow turns southwestward ahead of large mid-latitude\ntrough that is forecast to move over the Great Lakes region by the\nend of the week.  The latest runs of the dynamical models are fairly\nsimilar to the previous ones, with the ECMWF along the western side\nof the guidance and the GFS near the eastern edge.  The NHC track\nis between these solutions, and lies west of the various consensus\naids out of respect for the ECMWF and its ensemble mean.\n\nSince Maria is a large hurricane, the associated tropical-storm-\nforce winds could reach a portion of the North Carolina in about 48\nhours.  As a result, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a\nportion of the coast of North Carolina.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical\nStorm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North\nCarolina.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a\nStorm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North\nCarolina Outer Banks.\n\n3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-\nAtlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous\nsurf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of\nthe week.  For more information, please monitor information from\nyour local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 29.4N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 30.3N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 31.4N  73.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 33.6N  73.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  27/1800Z 35.0N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  28/1800Z 35.8N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  29/1800Z 37.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Pilar","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n400 PM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nPilar continues this afternoon to be a problematic system.\nFortunately, a 1426Z GPM 36 GHz image suggested that the system's\ncenter was very close to Cabo Corrientes at that time.  This\nallowed for a somewhat better estimate of the initial position and\nmotion (350 degrees at 7 kt).  Pilar is being advected around a\ndeep-layer ridge located over central Mexico.  Despite the initial\ncontinued movement at around 7 kt this afternoon, the guidance\ninsists that Pilar should soon slow down.  The official forecast\ntrack is quite similar to the previous one, with a course along or\njust west of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Fortunately, the\nmodel guidance came into better agreement with the track prediction,\nthough some of the model's trackers could not explicitly follow the\nweak vortex beyond a day or so into the future.\n\nBecause of Pilar having some of its circulation over the high\nterrain of southwestern Mexico, some weakening has likely occurred.\nThe initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt, based upon a blend of the\nTAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications.  While the SSTs are warm and\nthe vertical shear is only moderate for the day or so, continued\ninteraction with land is likely to prevent any re-intensification.\nAfter about 24 hours, the vertical shear should go way up, as Pilar\nis affected by strong southerlies associated with a vigorous mid- to\nupper-tropospheric trough over the southwestern United States.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is closest to a blend of the LGEM\nstatistical scheme and the HWRF dynamical model, and is just\nslightly below the previous advisory.  An alternative scenario is\nfor Pilar to dissipate substantially sooner because of the land\ninteractions.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  24/2100Z 20.8N 105.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  25/0600Z 21.8N 106.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  25/1800Z 22.5N 106.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  26/0600Z 23.0N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  26/1800Z 23.5N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":28,"Date":"2017-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  28\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nLee has been relatively steady state in intensity during the last\nseveral hours.  The 10 n mi eye of the hurricane remains distinct,\nand although the convective pattern around the eye is fairly\nsymmetric, the cloud tops are not very cold.  The latest Dvorak\nintensity estimates are 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and ADT\nvalues from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are slightly higher\nat 4.7/82 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is held\nat 80 kt.  Recent ASCAT data confirms that Lee is a very compact\nhurricane, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi\nfrom the center.\n\nAlthough wind shear is expected to remain low near Lee during the\nnext couple of days, the hurricane is likely to be over its own cool\nSST wake for part of that time.  These marginal SSTs and dry air\nwill likely cause the system to change little in strength during\nthe next couple of days.  Thereafter, much drier air, a sharp\nincrease in shear, and a track toward colder water should cause\nweakening by the end of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is identical to the previous one and in best agreement with\nthe consensus models IVCN and HCCA.\n\nLee has been drifting east-southeastward during the past 12 hours in\nthe flow on the south side of a mid- to upper-level trough.  The\ntrough is expected to bypass Lee on Monday, allowing high pressure\nto build to the north of the cyclone.  This change in the steering\npattern should cause the hurricane to turn westward by Monday night\nand Tuesday.  By mid-week, another trough is expected to approach\nthe hurricane, and this one should cause the system to accelerate to\nthe northeast over the central Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast has\nbeen adjusted to the west of the previous one to come into better\nagreement with the latest guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 31.1N  49.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 31.0N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 30.7N  49.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 30.6N  51.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 30.8N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 31.8N  54.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  29/0000Z 34.7N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  30/0000Z 40.0N  46.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nHurricane Hunter observations indicate that Maria has weakened.\nUsing a blend of flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds\nalong with a dropsonde in the northeast eyewall of the hurricane,\nthe current intensity is set at 80 kt.  Observations from a NOAA\naircraft indicate that the SSTs beneath Maria are on the order of\n24-25 deg C, which has probably contributed to the decrease of\nintensity.  These relatively cool waters are likely due to mixing\nand upwelling from slow-moving Hurricane Jose, which traversed the\narea a little over a week ago.  Gradual weakening is anticipated for\nthe next few days, and the official intensity forecast is near or\nabove the latest model consensus.  Maria is expected to remain a\nhurricane for at least the next few days, however.\n\nBased on a number of center fixes from the Air Force and NOAA\nHurricane Hunters, the motion is northward at a slightly slower\nspeed, or 360/7 kt.  Maria is being steered by the flow between a\nmid-level cyclone near the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge\nover the southwestern Atlantic.  A mid-level ridge over the\nnortheastern U.S. will likely cause Maria's forward motion to slow\nsome more over the next couple of days.  The global models predict\nthat this ridge will break down by 72 hours, and this should\nallow Maria to turn to the right as it begins to approach the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is similar to\nthe previous one and lies near the left edge of the numerical\nguidance, in deference to the reliable ECMWF which is the\nwesternmost of the model tracks.\n\nMaria is a large hurricane, so it could bring tropical storm\nconditions to portions of the North Carolina coast in a couple of\ndays, even if its center remains well offshore.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday, and a Tropical\nStorm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coast of North\nCarolina.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a\nStorm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North\nCarolina Outer Banks.\n\n3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-\nAtlantic coast tonight or on Monday.  These swells will likely cause\ndangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in these areas through\nmuch of the week.  For more information, please monitor information\nfrom your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 30.0N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 30.8N  73.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 31.9N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 33.0N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z 33.9N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  28/0000Z 35.2N  72.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  29/0000Z 36.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n120H  30/0000Z 38.0N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Pilar","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n900 PM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017\n\nSatellite images suggest that Pilar is maintaining its strength\nthis evening.  The center of the system is difficult to locate, but\nextrapolation of earlier microwave data and current geostationary\nimages suggest that it is located just to the north of Las Islas\nMarias.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, though some\nof the latest satellite intensity estimates suggest that this could\nbe a little conservative.\n\nPilar is very close to the coast, and the models either show the\ntropical cyclone moving inland or staying just off the coast of\nwestern Mexico.  This land interaction combined with an increase in\nsouth-southwesterly shear should cause the storm to weaken to a\ntropical depression on Monday, and dissipate in a couple of days or\nless.  It should be noted that if Pilar does move inland, it could\ndissipate sooner than shown here.\n\nA long term motion has been northward at 8 kt.  A slower north to\nnorth-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level flow is expected\nuntil the system dissipates.  This track forecast lies closest to\nthe ECMWF and UKMET models.\n\nThe main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy\nrainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides, over the states of Nayarit and the southern portion of\nSinaloa during the next day or two.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0300Z 21.8N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  25/1200Z 22.6N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  26/0000Z 23.4N 106.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  26/1200Z 24.0N 107.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":29,"Date":"2017-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  29\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nLee continues to hold steady in intensity.  The 10 n mi eye of the\nhurricane remains quite distinct, and although the convective\npattern around the eye is fairly symmetric, the cloud tops are not\nvery cold.  Since the Dvorak classifications remain the same as\nearlier, the initial intensity is again held at 80 kt based on a\nblend of the subjective and objective numbers.  It is interesting\nto note that Lee remains a very compact hurricane, with\ntropical-storm-force winds extending only 30 n mi from the center.\n\nLee remains in a favorable upper-level wind pattern for\nstrengthening, but SSTs beneath the cyclone are marginal, in part\ndue to the hurricane moving over its own cool wake.  Lee is expected\nto move over slightly warmer waters in a day or so, and that could\nallow the system to strengthen a little.  Later in the forecast\nperiod, drier air, a sharp increase in shear, and a track toward\ncolder water should cause weakening.  Only minor changes were made\nto the previous NHC intensity forecast, and this prediction is in\nbest agreement with the consensus models IVCN and HCCA.\n\nThe trough that had been steering Lee to the east or southeast much\nof the day on Sunday has now bypassed the system leaving Lee in\nweak steering currents.  A ridge is expected to build to the north\nof the hurricane by tonight, and that should cause the system to\nbegin moving west-southwestward or westward.  By mid-week, a\ntrough is expected to approach the hurricane, and it should\ncause the system to accelerate to the northeast over the central\nAtlantic in 4 to 5 days.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted\nto the west of the previous one to come into better agreement with\nthe latest guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 31.1N  49.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 30.9N  49.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 30.7N  50.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 30.8N  52.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 31.2N  53.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  28/0600Z 32.7N  54.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  29/0600Z 36.5N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n120H  30/0600Z 42.5N  42.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nA combination of conventional satellite imagery, scatterometer\ndata, and reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate\nthat Maria is weakening and undergoing major changes in structure as\nit encounters the cool water left by Hurricane Jose.  Satellite\nimagery shows that the low-level center has become exposed to the\nnorthwest of the remaining central convection, with some outer\nconvective banding remaining mainly in the eastern semicircle.  The\nscatterometer and aircraft data suggests that the inner wind core\nhas collapsed, with no hurricane force winds occurring in the\nwestern semicircle.  Based on the combination of these data, the\ninitial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 70 kt, and the\ninitial and forecast wind radii have been significantly changed.\n\nThe initial motion is 355/6.  Maria is being steered by the flow\nbetween a mid- to upper-level cyclone over the southeastern U.S. and\nthe subtropical ridge over the southwestern Atlantic.  A mid-level\nridge moving eastward across the northeastern U.S. will likely cause\nMaria's forward motion to slow some more over the next couple of\ndays.  After that time, the mid-latitude westerlies are expected to\nencroach on Maria, causing it to turn sharply to the east-\nnortheast and accelerate. The guidance is in good agreement on this\ntrack scenario, and the new forecast track, which lies between the\nECMWF and the various consensus models, is an update of the\nprevious forecast.\n\nThe environment of cool sea surface temperatures and moderate shear\nshould keep Maria weakening.  However, it unclear just how fast it\nwill weaken, as the guidance has been generally forecasting a slower\nweakening than has actually occurred.  The new intensity forecast\nwill follow the trend of the guidance and the previous forecast of\na gradual weakening, with Maria now forecast to weaken below\nhurricane status after 36 h.  However, an alternate scenario is\nthat the cyclone continues weakening at a faster rate and thus\nwinds up weaker than the new intensity forecast.\n\nMaria is a large cyclone, so even if it weakens to a tropical storm\nand remains well offshore it is expected to bring tropical storm\nconditions to portions of the North Carolina coast during the next\ncouple of days.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the coast beginning Tuesday.  A Tropical\nStorm Warning has been issued for a portion of the coast of North\nCarolina.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks is possible beginning Tuesday, and a\nStorm Surge Watch has been issued for a portion of the North\nCarolina Outer Banks.\n\n3. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-\nAtlantic coast today.  These swells will likely cause dangerous surf\nand rip currents at beaches in these areas through much of the\nweek. For more information, please monitor information from your\nlocal National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 30.6N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 31.4N  73.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z 33.5N  73.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  27/0600Z 34.3N  73.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  28/0600Z 35.5N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  29/0600Z 37.0N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  30/0600Z 40.0N  56.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Pilar","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n300 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nAlthough Pilar continues to produce an area of deep convection,\nsurface observations and satellite data indicate that the\ncirculation of the storm is losing definition.  In fact, recent\nASCAT data suggest that Pilar could already be an open trough.\nHowever, we prefer to keep issuing advisories until more\nconfirmation on the structure of the system is available.  The\ninitial intensity is held at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.\n\nPilar is very near the west coast of Mexico and it is expected to\nmove along or just off the coast during the next day or two.  The\ninteraction with land combined with a significant increase in\nsouthwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to weaken to a\ntropical depression later today, and dissipate within the next 24\nto 36 hours.\n\nSince Pilar lacks a clear center, the initial motion of 340/8 kt is\nuncertain.  A slower north-northwest motion in the low- to mid-level\nflow is expected until the system dissipates.  This track forecast\nlies closest to the latest GFS model run.\n\nThe main hazard associated with Pilar is the potential for heavy\nrainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of\nSinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day\nor so.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/0900Z 22.2N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  25/1800Z 22.8N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  26/0600Z 23.6N 107.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":30,"Date":"2017-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  30\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nWhile Lee is still displaying a distinct 10-15 nm eye in the\nGOES-16 visible imagery this morning, the deep convection of the\ncirrus canopy is lopsided with most of the cold cloud tops west of\nthe center.  This may be due to moderate vertical shear induced by\nan upper-low southwest of the hurricane.  The SAB, TAFB, and\nAdvanced Dvorak Technique intensity estimates have not changed, so\n80 kt is retained for the maximum sustained winds.\n\nLee is now moving again, with a 12-h motion of south-southwest at\n2 kt.  As a narrow mid-level ridge builds to the north of Lee, the\nhurricane should turn toward the west on Tuesday and west-northwest\non Wednesday at a slightly faster forward speed.  Starting in about\nthree days, Lee should begin recurvature toward the northeast,\naccelerating to over 20 kt by day 5 as the hurricane enters the\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The official track forecast is shifted\nsome toward the west through day 4, toward the tightly-packed\nglobal and hurricane model guidance.\n\nThe moderate vertical shear affecting Lee and some upwelled cool\nwater under the hurricane may cause slightly weakening shortly.\nAfter Lee moves back toward warmer water, the hurricane may\nrestrengthen some, but it is not anticipated that the system will\nreach major hurricane status.  The official intensity forecast is\nsimilar to the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF, LGEM,\nand COAMPS guidance.\n\nLee remains a tiny hurricane, though no recent information has been\navailable about its wind radii.  The official size forecast\nanticipates a slight increase in tropical storm force and hurricane\nforce wind radii, based upon the RVCN size consensus method.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 30.8N  49.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 30.6N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 30.6N  52.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 31.0N  53.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 31.5N  54.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 33.4N  54.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  29/1200Z 37.9N  50.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\n120H  30/1200Z 45.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":38,"Date":"2017-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nSatellite and aircraft data indicate that Maria's structure has\nchanged considerably since yesterday.  Deep convection is primarily\nconfined to the eastern semicircle of the circulation and the radius\nof maximum winds has significantly increased. After not finding many\nSFMR winds over 60 kt during the overnight flights, the latest Air\nForce Reserve Aircraft measured SFMR winds of 65-70 kt about 90 n mi\nfrom the center over the eastern portion of the circulation. As a\nresult, the initial wind speed is set at 70 kt, a slight\nreadjustment from the 1200 UTC estimate indicated in the\nintermediate advisory. The 50-kt and 64-kt wind radii have also been\nadjusted outward primarily over the eastern semicircle based on the\naircraft data.\n\nThe intensity forecast reasoning remains the same as that in the\nprevious advisory. Cool sea surface temperatures, moderate westerly\nshear, and dry air are expected to cause gradual weakening over the\nnext couple of days. The global model guidance suggests Maria will\nremain a strong tropical cyclone as it accelerates northeastward\nlater in the forecast period. Therefore, the NHC forecast is a\nlittle higher than the statistical guidance at those times.\n\nMaria continues to move northward or 360/6 kt. Although Maria is\nbeing steered northward between a mid- to upper-level low over the\nsoutheastern United States and a subtropical ridge over the\nsouthwestern Atlantic, the hurricane's forward motion should remain\nquite slow as it is currently being impeded by a mid-level ridge\nover the northeastern United States. A large mid-latitude trough is\nforecast to move across the Great Lakes region and into the\nnortheast United States by the end of the week. This feature should\ncause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward after\n72 hours. The track guidance is in excellent agreement through 48\nhours, but there are some differences in Maria's forward speed after\nthat time. The NHC forecast track is near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope through 48 h and is in between the ECMWF and various\nconsensus models later in the period.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,\nwhere a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a\nStorm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North\nCarolina.\n\n3. Swells from Maria are occurring along the coast of the\nsoutheastern United States and will be increasing along the\nMid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts today. These swells\nwill likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at beaches in\nthese areas through much of the week. For more information, please\nmonitor information from your local National Weather Service office\nat www.weather.gov.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 31.2N  72.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 31.8N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  26/1200Z 32.9N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  27/0000Z 33.8N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  27/1200Z 34.7N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  28/1200Z 35.7N  71.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  29/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  30/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Pilar","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Pilar Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nWater vapor satellite imagery indicates that strong southwesterly\nvertical wind shear, along with an abundance of dry mid-/upper-level\nair, ahead of sharp shortwave trough moving across southern Baja\nCalifornia is taking its toll on Pilar. Convection has weakened\nconsiderably and has been displaced to the north and east of the\npoorly defined low-level circulation center. A blend of Dvorak\nsatellite T-numbers and current intensity (CI) estimates from TAFB\nand SAB is a consensus T2.0/30 kt, resulting in Pilar being\ndowngraded to a tropical depression. The shear is forecast to\nincrease to more than 30 kt by 12 h, so continued weakening and\ndegeneration into a remnant low is forecast today, followed by\ndissipation on Tuesday...if not sooner.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 335/06 kt. Pilar and its remnants are\nexpected to continue moving in this general direction, accompanied\nby a slight decrease in forward speed, for the next day or so until\ndissipation occurs.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the NOAA-HCCA\nand TCVA consensus track models.\n\nThe main hazard associated with Pilar will continue to be heavy\nrainfall, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and\nmudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of\nSinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next\nday or so.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/1500Z 22.8N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  26/0000Z 23.4N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":31,"Date":"2017-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  31\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nLittle Lee has weakened a little since the previous advisory. Over\nthe past few hours, the previously clear 10-15 nmi diameter eye has\nbecome cloud filled, briefly becoming completely obscured. An\naverage of the available intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,\nUW-CIMSS ADT, UW-CIMSS SATCON, and NHC AODT is 75 kt, and that is\ninitial intensity used for this advisory.\n\nLee has completed a tight cyclonic loop and is now moving toward\nthe west-southwest or 255/07 kt.  A narrow mid-level ridge is\nexpected to continue building to the north of Lee, forcing the\nsmall hurricane on a westward track for the next day or so. As an\nupper-level trough approaches from the west, the hurricane should\nturn toward the northwest on Wednesday and Thursday as the western\nportion of the subtropical ridge erodes. By Friday and beyond, Lee\nis forecast to get caught up in the brisk southwesterly flow ahead\nof the aforementioned trough and accelerate toward the northeast at\nforward speeds in excess of 20 kt. The official track forecast has\nbeen shifted westward closer to the consensus models through 96 h,\nand then lies close to the previous advisory track at 120 h.\n\nThe modest southeasterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting\nLee today is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF global models to abate\nshortly, and remain at less than 10 kt for the next 48 hours or so.\nAs a result, some slight strengthening will be possible when the\ncyclone moves over warmer 28 deg C SSTs in 36-48 hours. Afterwards,\nincreasing southwesterly vertical shear should induce slow but\nsteady weakening, with Lee making the transition into an\nextratropical low by 120 h when the cyclone will be located over\n18C-20C water temperatures and in a 30-40 kt sheared environment.\n\nLee is forecast to remain a compact hurricane throughout the\nforecast period, with only a small increase in the 50- and\n34-kt wind radii expected.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 30.5N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 30.4N  51.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 30.5N  53.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 31.0N  55.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 31.8N  55.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  28/1800Z 34.5N  54.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  29/1800Z 40.2N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  30/1800Z 46.9N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":39,"Date":"2017-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nMaria's coldest cloud tops and deepest convection continue to be\nover the far eastern and northern portions of the circulation, but a\nsmall area of convection has re-developed near the center this\nafternoon.  SFMR data from a NOAA aircraft investigating Maria\nindicate that the maximum winds remain near 70 kt, and that the\narea of hurricane-force winds extends about 90 nm from the\ncenter over the eastern semicircle.\n\nMaria continues its slow northward trek.  A slow northward motion\nshould continue for another couple of days as Maria moves around\nthe western side of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic,\nbut the forward speed is atypically slow due to ridging over the\nnortheastern United States.  A deep mid-latitude trough will be\nmoving into the northeastern U.S. late this week, which is\nexpected to cause Maria to accelerate northeastward after 72 hours.\nThe track guidance remains tightly clustered through the first 48 to\n72 hours, but there are still some speed differences beyond that\ntime.  The NHC forecast track lies near the middle of the guidance\nenvelope through 72 h, and is close to the various consensus aids\nlate in the period.\n\nCooler waters, moderate westerly shear, and dry air are expected\nto cause a gradual decrease in wind speed over the next few days.\nHowever, Maria is likely to remain a strong cyclone throughout the\nforecast period.  Extratropical transition is likely to begin in\n96 h with Maria completing this process near the end of the\nforecast period.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,\nwhere a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is possible beginning on Tuesday, and a\nStorm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North\nCarolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the\neast coast of the United States from Florida through southern New\nEngland.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the\nnorthern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and\nthe Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local\nweather office for more information.\n\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 31.7N  73.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  26/0600Z 32.5N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  26/1800Z 33.5N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  27/0600Z 34.4N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  27/1800Z 35.3N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  28/1800Z 36.3N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  29/1800Z 38.8N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  30/1800Z 45.0N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Pilar","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP182017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Pilar Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182017\n300 PM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nGOES-16 visible imagery along with ASCAT scatterometer data\nindicate that Pilar has degenerated into a trough of low pressure\nextending from the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula and\nthe coast of western Mexico.  This is the last advisory issued on\nPilar.  The highest winds remaining in association with Pilar's\nremnants are 20 kt, as observed by the scatterometer.\n\nSome deep convection remains in association with the remnants of\nPilar along the coast of western Mexico and inland.  The main hazard\nassociated with the remnants of Pilar will be heavy rainfall, which\ncould trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over the\nstates of northern Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the\nsouthwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  25/2100Z 23.8N 107.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":32,"Date":"2017-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  32\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Lee has improved over the past 6\nhours.  Cloud tops have cooled and the eye has become more distinct.\nDvorak intensity estimates around 0000 UTC from TAFB and the\nUW-CIMSS ADT were higher than the last advisory, and the intensity\nestimate from the ADT has gone up even more since then.  The initial\nintensity has been increased only slightly to 80 kt, but it is\npossible that Lee is a little stronger than that.\n\nLee appears to have moved out of the moderate shear zone associated\nwith an upper-level trough, and is accelerating away from any cold\nwater it may have previously upwelled.  Further intensification in\nthe short term seems likely, and this is supported by all of the\nintensity guidance.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a little\nhigher than the previous forecast, and lies between the higher\ndynamical models (HWRF, HMON), and the lower statistical models\n(SHIPS, LGEM).  After about 36 hours, a sharp increase in northerly\nshear associated with the outflow from Maria and an approaching\nmid-latitude trough should cause Lee to weaken.  Given the small\nsize of Lee, it is possible that weakening could occur even faster\nthan indicated in the official forecast.\n\nLee has continued to move toward the west-southwest, and the initial\nmotion estimate is 240/7 kt.  There is no change to the forecast\nreasoning, and Lee is expected to move generally westward for the\nnext 36 hours, along the southern edge of a mid-level ridge.  After\nthat time, a combination of Maria and the aforementioned trough\nshould cause Lee to recurve and rapidly accelerate toward the\nnortheast.  Since Lee is moving a little faster than previously\nforecast, the NHC forecast has been adjusted westward for the first\n36 hours of the forecast, but is generally close to the previous\nforecast track after that.  Lee should be extratropical by no later\nthan day 5, and some of the models indicate that it will be absorbed\nwithin a frontal boundary sooner than that.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 30.2N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 30.2N  52.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 30.5N  54.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 31.0N  55.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 31.7N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 35.3N  55.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 42.0N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 49.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":40,"Date":"2017-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 25 2017\n\nMaria's deep convection continues to slowly diminish, especially\nover the western semicircle of the circulation, where only a few\ncold tops are seen.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters reported an\nSFMR-observed surface wind of 67 kt over the northeast quadrant, so\nthe current intensity is maintained at 70 kt for the time being.\nAlthough vertical shear is not forecast by the dynamical guidance to\nincrease significantly over the next few days, cooler waters and\ndrier air are likely to cause Maria to weaken to a tropical storm by\nlate Tuesday or Wednesday.  By the end of the forecast period,\nglobal models indicate that the system will have transformed into a\nfrontal cyclone over the northern Atlantic, and this is also\nreflected in the official forecast.\n\nMaria continues to move northward quite slowly, or 360/6 kt, on the\nwestern side of a subtropical high pressure area.  A mid-level ridge\nover the northeastern United States should continue to retard the\nsystem's forward progress for another day or two.  Afterward, this\nridge is predicted to weaken, and Maria should begin to accelerate\nnortheastward to east-northeastward away from the United States east\ncoast, ahead of a broad mid-tropospheric trough.  The official track\nforecast is very similar to the previous one and is in line with the\nmulti-model consensus.  This is also between the faster GFS and\nslower ECMWF tracks.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will\noccur along portions of the North Carolina coast beginning Tuesday,\nwhere a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is expected beginning on Tuesday, and a\nStorm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North\nCarolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the\neast coast of the United States from Florida through southern New\nEngland.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the\nnorthern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and\nthe Bahamas.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf\nand rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local\nweather office for more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0300Z 32.3N  73.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  26/1200Z 33.2N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  27/0000Z 34.1N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  27/1200Z 35.0N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  28/0000Z 35.5N  72.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  29/0000Z 36.5N  68.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  30/0000Z 40.0N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n120H  01/0000Z 47.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":33,"Date":"2017-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  33\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nLee's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized this\nevening.  The eye has cleared out and has warmed to nearly 10\ndegrees Celsius, and the eye wall cloud tops have cooled to\n-63 degrees Celsius.  The initial intensity is increased modestly to\n85 kt and is based on a blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak\nT-numbers.  It is worth noting that the ADT adjusted raw T-number\nyields an estimated intensity of 97 kt based on an eye scene-type.\n\nThe previously noted southeasterly shear undercutting the diffluent\nflow aloft has certainly diminished and should remain low for the\nnext 48 hours or so.  During this initial period, Lee could get a\nlittle stronger as indicated in the HWRF hurricane model and the\nDecay-SHIPS.  Afterward, increasing vertical shear, primarily due to\nthe outflow generated by Maria, and decreasing sea surface\ntemperatures should induce a gradual weakening trend as the cyclone\nmoves into a high latitude baroclinic zone and ultimately becomes an\nextratropical cyclone in 4 days.  The intensity forecast is\nbasically an update of 6 hours ago, and follows an average of the\nIVCN and Florida State Superensemble guidance.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 260/9 kt.  The\ncyclone is expected to continue moving within the easterly mid-level\nsteering flow, produced by a relatively narrow mid-tropospheric\nridge situated to the north, during the next 24 hours.  Afterward,\na combination of a broad mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moving\nout of the eastern Canadian Provinces and a subtropical ridge\nbuilding east of Lee should steer the hurricane gradually\nnorthwestward and northward.  On day 3 and beyond,  Lee is forecast\nto accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in a deep-layer\nhigh latitude southwesterly flow downstream from the aforementioned\nshortwave trough.  Global models and the Cyclone Phase Evolution\nanalysis/forecast product show Lee become a extratropical\ncyclone no later than day 4.  The NHC forecast track is a little\nsouth of the previous one through 48 hours, but similar\nthereafter, and is based on the TVCX and HCCA consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 30.0N  52.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 29.9N  53.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 30.2N  55.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 30.9N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 32.2N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 36.9N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 44.5N  40.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  01/0600Z 50.9N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":41,"Date":"2017-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nMaria is feeling the effects of the cool sea surface temperatures\nleft in the wake of Hurricane Jose.  Satellite imagery shows that\nthe convective pattern is gradually losing organization, with the\nremaining convection in a cluster to the southeast of the center\nand in bands well to the east of the center.  In addition, the\naircraft-reported central pressure has risen to 970 mb.  While there\nhave been no observations of hurricane-force winds from the Stepped\nFrequency Microwave Radiometer on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter\ncurrently in the cyclone, it is likely that they still exist in\nareas east of the center where the airplane has not yet sampled.\nThe initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 65 kt based\nmainly on the rising central pressure since the last advisory.\n\nThe combination of the cool water and moderate shear should cause\nMaria to gradually weaken during the forecast period, with the\nsystem now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in less than 24 h.\nNear the 120 h point, the cyclone is expected to merge with a\nfrontal system and become extratropical.  The new intensity forecast\nis an update of the previous advisory.\n\nThe initial motion remains 360/6, with Maria moving northward on the\nwestern side of the subtropical ridge.  A mid- to upper-level ridge\nover the northeastern United States to the north of the cyclone is\nlikely to keep the motion slow for the next 36-48 h.  After that,\nthe mid-latitude westerlies are forecast to move southward across\nthe northeastern United States and break down the subtropical\nridge.  This should lead to Maria turning east-northeastward and\naccelerating after 48 h.  The track guidance is in good agreement\nwith this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the\nprevious track until 120 h, where it is nudged a bit to the south.\nThe track is also close to the center of the guidance envelope.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast for the next 36-48 hours, and it is likely that some\ndirect impacts will occur along portions of the North Carolina coast\nbeginning later today, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is expected beginning later today, and a\nStorm Surge Watch has been issued for portions of eastern North\nCarolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of\nthe United States from Florida through southern New England.  These\nswells are also affecting Bermuda, Puerto Rico, the northern coast\nof Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These\nswells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current\nconditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office\nfor more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/0900Z 32.9N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  26/1800Z 33.7N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  27/0600Z 34.6N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  27/1800Z 35.4N  72.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  28/0600Z 35.8N  71.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  29/0600Z 37.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  30/0600Z 41.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  01/0600Z 48.0N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":34,"Date":"2017-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  34\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nLee is small but impressive hurricane this morning with a\nwell-defined eye on visible satellite images.  Satellite intensity\nestimates are a little higher and support an initial wind speed of\nat least 90 kt.  Further strengthening is possible for the next day\nor so while Lee continues moving over warm waters with relatively\nlight shear.  Most of the guidance shows Lee getting a bit stronger,\nand the cyclone stands some chance of becoming a major hurricane\nwithin the next 24 hours or so.  The official forecast is raised\nfrom the previous one, and is on the high side of the guidance.\nWeakening should begin on Thursday as shear increases and water\ntemperatures decrease.  The small tropical cyclone should weaken\nfairly quickly at higher latitudes and become absorbed in a large\nextratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.\n\nLee continues moving westward at 9 kt.  The hurricane should\ngradually turn to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on\nThursday as it moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic.\nThereafter, Lee is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it\nenters the faster mid-latitude flow.  There are some speed\ndifferences in the models but overall not a lot of cross-track\nspread.  The new forecast is faster than the previous one, in the\ndirection of the latest HFIP corrected-consensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 29.9N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 30.0N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 30.6N  56.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 31.7N  56.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 33.3N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 46.0N  35.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":42,"Date":"2017-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Maria has continued to slowly degrade\nover the past 24 hours, as deep convection is now confined to the\nsoutheastern portion of the circulation.  Peak surface wind\nestimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer on the\nreconnaissance aircraft have been around 60 kt both overnight and\nthis morning, but due to sampling considerations for such a large\nwind field the initial wind speed is held at 65 kt for this\nadvisory.  Cool waters and moderate west-northwesterly shear are\nexpected to cause a gradual decrease in intensity over the next\ncouple of days, and Maria is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm\nlater today or tonight.  Little change in strength is expected later\nin the period while Maria accelerates east-northeastward and begins\nto interact with a frontal boundary over the north Atlantic.\n\nMaria continues to move slowly northward around the western side of\na subtropical ridge.  A mid- to upper-level ridge over the\nnortheastern United States to the north of Maria is likely to\nkeep the cyclone's forward motion slow for the next 24-36 h.  After\nthat time, a mid-latitude trough moving across the Great Lakes\nregion is expected to lift Maria east-northeastward or northeastward\nat an increasing forward speed.  The track guidance remains in good\nagreement on the scenario but there continue to be large speed\ndifferences after 48 hours.  The new official forecast is a little\nslower than the previous one at days 3-5 to be more in line with the\nvarious consensus aids.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast for the next 36 hours, and will likely bring some\ndirect impacts to portions of the North Carolina coast through\nWednesday where a tropical storm warning is in effect.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning\nand watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of\nthe United States.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, the\nTurks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells are likely\nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please\nconsult products from your local weather office for more\ninformation.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/1500Z 33.6N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  27/0000Z 34.3N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  27/1200Z 35.1N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  28/0000Z 35.7N  72.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  28/1200Z 36.1N  70.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  29/1200Z 37.6N  63.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  30/1200Z 42.5N  49.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n120H  01/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":35,"Date":"2017-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  35\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nSatellite images indicate that the cloud-top temperatures in the\neyewall of Lee have cooled this afternoon, with about the same warm\ntemperatures in the eye.  This indicates Lee remains on a\nstrengthening trend, and the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt,\nnear the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique figure.  Lee has about 24\nhours to intensify before shear increases and water temperatures\nbegin to cool.  Most of the guidance now show Lee becoming a major\nhurricane, and the official forecast follows suit.  A more\nsignificant weakening is expected by the end of the week as the\nhurricane moves over much colder waters and into higher shear. Model\nguidance is virtually unanimous on this scenario, and only minor\nchanges were made to the previous forecast. The small tropical\ncyclone should become absorbed in a large extratropical low over the\nnortheastern Atlantic Ocean within 4 or 5 days.\n\nLee is moving westward at 8 kt.  The hurricane should gradually turn\nto the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on Thursday as it\nmoves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Thereafter, Lee\nis likely to accelerate to the northeast as it enters the faster\nmid-latitude flow.  The most significant change to the previous\nforecast is that the model guidance has trended westward with the\nfirst part of the forecast, closest to the 00 UTC ECMWF solution.\nSince the 12 UTC ECMWF is very consistent with its previous\nforecast, the NHC track forecast is adjusted westward near the\npoint of recurvature, then is blended back with the previous\nforecast closer to the corrected consensus guidance.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 29.9N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 30.0N  55.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 31.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 32.4N  57.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 34.5N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 41.0N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 48.5N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":43,"Date":"2017-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nThere has been little change to Maria's cloud pattern since the\nprevious advisory.  The center of the large circulation is located\nnear the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to\nwest-northwesterly shear and dry air intrusion.  Reconnaissance\naircraft have not found any SFMR winds higher than 60 kt for quite\nsome time, so the initial intensity has been reduced to that value.\nCool waters and moderate shear should cause some additional\ndecrease in wind speed over the next day or so, but little\nchange in strength is forecast later in the period as Maria\naccelerates east-northeastward over the north Atlantic.  Maria\nshould complete extratropical transition in about 96 hours, and\ncould merge with a large extratropical low in about 5 days.\n\nMaria is continuing its slow northward motion around the\nwestern side of a subtropical ridge.  The mid-latitude westerlies\nare forecast to dip southward as a large trough moves across eastern\nNorth America later this week.  This should cause Maria to turn\neast-northeastward by Thursday, and then accelerate ahead of the\ntrough by late in the week.  The track guidance has trended slightly\nslower and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The new\nofficial forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered\nguidance.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to continue moving northward, paralleling the\nU.S. east coast for the next 36 hours, and will likely bring some\ndirect impacts to portions of the North Carolina coast through\nWednesday where a tropical storm warning is in effect.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning\nand watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of\nthe United States.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, the\nTurks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells are likely\nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please\nconsult products from your local weather office for more\ninformation.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  26/2100Z 34.1N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  27/0600Z 34.8N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  27/1800Z 35.5N  72.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  28/0600Z 36.0N  71.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  28/1800Z 36.3N  69.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  29/1800Z 38.3N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  30/1800Z 44.0N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  01/1800Z 51.5N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":36,"Date":"2017-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  36\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nLee remains just below major hurricane strength.  The eye of the\nhurricane is very distinct with a fairly symmetric area of deep\nconvection surrounding that feature.  Recent microwave data show\nsome evidence that Lee could be developing concentric eyewalls, and\nfrequent lightning has been occurring in the outer periphery of the\ncirculation.  A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak\nestimates support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt.  Lee\nstill has another 12 to 24 hours to strengthen while it remains over\nwarm waters and in a low wind shear environment, and it could become\na major hurricane during that time.  Thereafter, a significant\nincrease in wind shear and progressively cooler waters along the\nforecast track should cause a steady weakening trend and lead to\npost-tropical transition in a little more than 3 days.  The global\nmodels agree that Lee should be absorbed by an extratropical low in\nabout 4 days.\n\nThe hurricane is moving westward at 7 kt steered by a mid-level\nridge to its north.  Lee is expected to reach the western periphery\nof the ridge in 24 to 36 hours, which should cause the system to\ngradually turn to the north during that time.  After that, Lee is\nexpected to accelerate to the northeast when it gets embedded in the\nmuch faster mid-latitude flow.  The new NHC track is in good\nagreement with the consensus models and it is not too different from\nthe previous one.\n\nLee remains a very compact hurricane with tropical-storm-force\nwinds extending only 60 n mi from the center.  The cyclone is\nexpected to become larger, however, as it gains latitude during the\nnext few days.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 30.0N  55.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 30.5N  56.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 31.6N  57.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 33.4N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 36.0N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 43.7N  43.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":44,"Date":"2017-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  44\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017\n\nPractically all of the deep convection associated with Maria is\nover the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the center is\nexposed near the edge of the dense overcast due to moderate\nwest-northwesterly shear.  SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air\nForce Hurricane Hunter aircraft support a current intensity of 60\nkt, although satellite classifications indicate a much weaker\ncyclone.  Since SSTs are not expected to cool significantly along\nthe projected path of Maria over the next couple of days, only\nslight weakening is forecast up to 72 hours.  Later in the forecast\nperiod, the global models depict the cyclone as embedded in a\nfrontal zone, so the system is forecast to become extratropical by\nday 4.\n\nMaria continues to move slowly northward along the western periphery\nof a subtropical ridge.  In 24-48 hours, the mid-latitude\nwesterlies should shift southward in association with a broad\nmid-tropospheric trough moving across eastern North America.  This\nshould cause Maria to turn east-northeastward and then accelerate\nahead of the trough by late in the week.  The track models are in\ngeneral agreement on this scenario, however, the guidance has\nbecome less tightly clustered.  This is especially true later\nin the forecast period, where the ECMWF is much slower than the GFS\nand HWRF models.  The official track forecast lies between these\noptions and is a little to the left of the previous one in the\nearly part of the period, in deference to the ECMWF solution.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to move roughly parallel to the U.S. east coast\nfor the next day or so, bringing some direct impacts to portions of\nthe North Carolina coast through Wednesday where a tropical storm\nwarning is in effect.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning\nand watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of\nthe United States.  These swells are also affecting Bermuda, the\nTurks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.  These swells are likely\nto cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please\nconsult products from your local weather office for more\ninformation.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0300Z 34.9N  72.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  27/1200Z 35.4N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  28/0000Z 36.1N  72.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  28/1200Z 36.5N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/0000Z 36.8N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  30/0000Z 39.5N  57.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  01/0000Z 46.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/0000Z 53.0N  17.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":37,"Date":"2017-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  37\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nConventional satellite imagery indicates that Lee has been\nundergoing some cloud structural changes during the past several\nhours.  The eye has nearly doubled in size to 30 miles in\ndiameter, the central pressure indicated in the CIMSS Objective\nDvorak technique has increased a few millibars, and an earlier 2147\nUTC WindSAT overpass revealed a developing outer ring surrounding\nthe partially opened inner core. These aforementioned cloud pattern\nalterations arguably point to an undergoing eyewall replacement\ncycle, and the possibility of intensification in the short term.\nThe initial intensity of 95 kt remains above the subjective\nT-numbers, and is close to the CIMSS ADT estimated intensity.  The\nofficial intensity forecast reflects the possibility of Lee becoming\na major hurricane later today before a weakening trend commences by\nearly Wednesday.  The global models and the FSU Cyclone Phase\nEvolution product agree that Lee will maintain tropical\ncharacteristics through day 3.  Afterward, the guidance shows the\ncyclone quickly absorbed by an existing larger baroclinic\nsystem.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/8\nkt.  Lee should turn gradually northwestward later today, and\ngenerally northward on Thursday as the cyclone is steered by the\nsouthwestern peripheral flow of a subtropical ridge over the\neast-central Atlantic.  Through the remaining portion of the\nforecast, Lee is forecast to accelerate northeastward within the\nstrong mid-latitude southwesterly flow and ultimately dissipate in\n72 hours.  The model guidance suite continues to trend toward the\nwest through the 36-hour period, and the official forecast follows\nsuit.  Beyond that time frame, the forecast is a little faster than\nthe previous advisory and is nudged toward the HFIP Corrected\nConsensus technique model.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 30.2N  56.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 30.8N  57.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 32.1N  57.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 34.5N  56.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 37.8N  53.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 46.3N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":45,"Date":"2017-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nMaria has changed little in structure since the last advisory.  A\nband of deep convection attempted to wrap around the western side\nof the circulation, but that has since dissipated due to continued\nshear and dry air.  The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on\nsurface winds measured by the SFMR on the previous reconnaissance\nflight.  Maria will likely be moving over some warm and cold eddies\nassociated with the Gulf Stream during the next 2 to 3 days, and\nwith vertical shear expected to gradually decrease during that\ntime, only slow weakening is anticipated.  After day 3, vertical\nshear increases significantly, and Maria is expected to complete\nextratropical transition by day 4.  The global models then indicate\nthat the low will be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over\nthe northeastern Atlantic by day 5.\n\nEarlier reconnaissance fixes indicated that Maria's center was\njumping around a bit, but its average motion is estimated to be\nslowly northward, or 005 degrees at 4 kt.  Maria is moving around\nthe western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the central\nAtlantic, and it should enter the mid-latitude westerlies in about\n36 hours, at which point it is expected to accelerate northeastward\nacross the north Atlantic.  Most of the model spread continues to\nbe in the along-track direction, highlighted by the faster GFS and\nHWRF models and the slower ECMWF model.  As was the case before,\nthe updated NHC track forecast splits the difference between these\nscenarios and remains close to the multi-model consensus aids.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the U.S. east coast\nduring the next day or so.  However, tropical storm conditions are\nexpected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast\nthrough much of today.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding, especially along the sound side of the\nNorth Carolina Outer Banks, is expected, and a storm surge warning\nand watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of\nthe United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the\nTurks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office for more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/0900Z 35.1N  72.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  27/1800Z 35.7N  72.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  28/0600Z 36.2N  71.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  28/1800Z 36.5N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  29/0600Z 37.0N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 72H  30/0600Z 40.5N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  01/0600Z 47.5N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":38,"Date":"2017-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  38\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nAfter an eyewall replacement overnight, satellite images indicate\nthat a larger clear eye has formed, with the coldest cloud-top\ntemperatures seen to date observed with the cyclone.  While\nsubjective Dvorak estimates have been fluctuating between 90-102 kt,\nthe latest objective estimate is 102 kt, and a 1050 UTC AMSU\nestimate from CIMSS is 104 kt.  A blend of these data gives an\ninitial wind speed of 100 kt, making Lee the 5th major hurricane of\nthe 2017 Atlantic season.  A gradual decrease in water temperatures\nshould start a weakening trend within 12-24 hours, with a faster\nweakening forecast on Thursday and Friday as Lee enters a high-shear\nenvironment.  Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and\nthe latest forecast is very close to the previous one.\n\nLee has turned northwestward, or 315/6.  The hurricane should turn\nto the north on Thursday and northeast by Friday while it moves\naround the subtropical ridge.  Lee is expected to move quite quickly\nto the northeast on Friday and Saturday as it accelerates in\nmid-latitude flow.  No significant changes were made to the previous\ntrack, and the new forecast lies between the ECMWF and the HFIP\ncorrected-consensus model.  Around day 3, the cyclone should be\nclose to a cold front, but most of the models still show it separate\nfrom that feature.  By day 4, all of the guidance have the system\ndecaying into a trough, and that is the solution provided below.\n\nAn ASCAT pass from this morning indicated that Lee has grown in\nsize, so the initial and forecast wind radii have been modified to\nreflect that change.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 30.6N  56.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 31.4N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 33.0N  57.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 35.5N  55.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 46.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":46,"Date":"2017-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nDeep convection and banding has increased over the eastern and\nnortheastern portion of the large circulation of Maria since\nyesterday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has\nmeasured peak flight-level winds of 74 kt and several believable\nSFMR winds around 65 kt in the convection well northeast of the\ncenter this morning.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is\nadjusted to 65 kt, which makes Maria a hurricane once again.\nAlthough the shear is forecast to decrease over Maria during the\nnext couple of days, cool sea surface temperatures are likely to\nresult in a slow decrease in intensity.  The new NHC intensity\nforecast is a little above the previous advisory due to the slightly\nhigher initial intensity.  Maria is expected to become an\nextratropical low over the north Atlantic by 96 h and be absorbed by\na larger extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5.\n\nMaria is finally making its much anticipated north-northeast turn,\nwith an estimated motion of 015/5.  The hurricane is expected to\nturn east-northeastward on Thursday as it enters the mid-latitude\nwesterly flow.  A trough moving into eastern North America late this\nweek should cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward over the\nnorth Atlantic on Friday and Saturday.  The spread in the guidance\nis still largely along track after 36 hours, and the NHC forecast\nremains near the model consensus to account for these differences.\n\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the North Carolina\ncoast later today.  However, tropical storm conditions are expected\nto continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through this\nafternoon.\n\n2. Storm surge flooding is occurring, especially along the sound\nside of the North Carolina Outer Banks, and a storm surge warning\nand watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.\n\n3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of\nthe United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the\nTurks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office for more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/1500Z 35.6N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  28/0000Z 36.1N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  29/0000Z 36.7N  67.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/1200Z 37.7N  62.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  30/1200Z 42.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  01/1200Z 50.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":39,"Date":"2017-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  39\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nLee looks like a classic major hurricane on satellite today, with a\nfairly clear eye and an impressive outflow pattern aloft.  The\nmost noticeable change during the day is that the eye has shrunk a\nlittle bit, perhaps suggesting Lee may undergo another eyewall\ncycle.  Otherwise, the eye temperatures and eyewall convection are\nsimilar to 6 hours ago, resulting in similar Dvorak estimates.\nThus, the wind speed will remain 100 kt for this advisory.  Lee\nshould be near its peak intensity tonight and begin to weaken\ntomorrow as vertical wind shear increases and SSTs cool.  The system\nshould be losing tropical characteristics by late week, and will\nlikely transition into a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday due to it\nmoving over very cold water.  The official intensity forecast is\nbasically an update of the previous one, near the model consensus,\nand shaded toward the global models, due to the interaction with the\nmid-latitudes.\n\nLee has turned even farther to the right, and is now moving\nnorth-northwestward at 7 kt.  The hurricane should turn northward\novernight and northeastward by late Thursday as it moves around the\nwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge.  Lee should accelerate\nrapidly northeastward on Friday due to it encountering fast\nmid-latitude flow.  Model guidance is tightly clustered, so the\nofficial forecast is close to the previous one, on the ECMWF side of\nthe model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 31.2N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 32.2N  57.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 34.3N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 37.3N  53.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 41.0N  48.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 48.5N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Blake\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":47,"Date":"2017-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nMaria's banding structure remains fairly well defined over the\neastern portion of the circulation, however dry air continues to\nlimit convection over the western half of the hurricane.  The\ninitial wind speed is once again set at 65 kt, which is based on\nthe earlier aircraft reports.  The westerly shear over Maria is\nforecast to lessen over the next day or so, but cooler waters along\nthe track of the storm are likely to result in a slow decrease in\nintensity.  Maria is expected to become an extratropical low on\nSaturday, and be absorbed a larger low pressure area over the\nnortheastern Atlantic on Sunday.\n\nMaria is moving north-northeastward or 030/6 kt. The hurricane\nshould turn east-northeastward and begin to accelerate on Thursday\nas it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow.  By\nSaturday, the cyclone should further accelerate ahead of trough\nmoving off the coast of the northeast United States and eastern\nCanada.  As has been the case over the past few days, the spread\nin the guidance is largely along track or speed differences, and\nthe NHC forecast continues to be near the various consensus models\nto account for these differences.\n\nKEY MESSAGES:\n\n1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the North Carolina\ncoast this evening.  However, tropical storm conditions are expected\nto continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for a few\nmore hours.  These winds are expected to diminish later this\nevening.\n\n2. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast\nof the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the\nTurks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely to cause\nlife-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult\nproducts from your local weather office for more information.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  27/2100Z 36.2N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  28/0600Z 36.6N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  28/1800Z 36.9N  68.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  29/0600Z 37.2N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  29/1800Z 38.6N  59.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  30/1800Z 44.0N  43.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  01/1800Z 50.0N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  02/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":40,"Date":"2017-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  40\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nAlthough Lee remains an impressive hurricane, the associated cloud\npattern is not as well organized as it was earlier today.  The eye\nhas become slightly less distinct and there have been occasional\ndry slots in the deep convection surrounding the center.  As a\nresult, the Dvorak estimates are a little lower, and a blend of the\nnumbers from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University\nof Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 95 kt.\n\nLee is forecast to move into progressively more hostile conditions\nof stronger shear and cooler waters during the next few days.\nTherefore, steady weakening is expected, and Lee should lose its\ntropical characteristics in 2 to 3 days when it is forecast to\nbe over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an environment of about 30 kt of\nwesterly shear.  The global models show the post-tropical low\ndissipating in a little more than 3 days.  The NHC intensity\nforecast is an update of the previous one, and it is in good\nagreement with the ICON and HCCA consensus aids.\n\nLee continues to turn to the right, and the initial motion is now\n345/6 kt.  A northward motion is expected overnight and early on\nThursday when Lee moves along the western periphery of the ridge.\nThereafter, Lee is expected to accelerate to the northeast when the\ncyclone becomes embedded in fast mid-latitude flow.  The NHC track\nforecast lies near the various consensus models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 31.7N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 33.2N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 35.7N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 38.9N  51.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 42.5N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 49.7N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":48,"Date":"2017-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Maria Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017\n\nMaria continues to have convective bands over the eastern and\nnortheastern portions of its circulation, with drier air inhibiting\nconvection over much of its western semicircle.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates are below hurricane strength, but this has been the case\nfor the last couple of days, where aircraft observations showed the\nsystem stronger than indicated by the satellite-based estimates.\nSince the cloud pattern has not deteriorated significantly from\nearlier today, Maria is kept as a hurricane for now.  Only gradual\nweakening is expected since SSTs do not cool much until after 48\nhours, and baroclinic processes may help maintain intensity for\nanother day or so thereafter.  Later in the forecast period, the\npost-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by a larger\nextratropical low over the far northeastern north Atlantic.  The 72-\nand 96-hour forecast positions, intensity, and wind radii were\ncoordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nMaria is gradually turning to the right as it nears the\nmid-latitude westerlies, and the motion estimate is now 040/6 kt.\nOver the next few days, the cyclone should accelerate eastward to\neast-northeastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough moving through\nthe northeastern United Sates and off the northeast United States\ncoast.  There continues to be significant along-track, i.e. speed,\ndifferences between the ECMWF and GFS models later in the period,\nand the official forecast is nearly an average of these 2 model\ntracks. This is also close to the latest multi-model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0300Z 36.8N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  28/1200Z 36.9N  70.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  29/0000Z 36.9N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  29/1200Z 37.4N  62.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/0000Z 39.0N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  01/0000Z 44.5N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/0000Z 51.0N  18.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n120H  03/0000Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":41,"Date":"2017-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  41\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nAlthough Lee remains a powerful hurricane, the cloud pattern\nappears to be gradually losing some organization.  The eye has\nbecome ragged at times, and the convective pattern is now more\nasymmetric with convection becoming limited over the northwestern\nquadrant.  The initial wind speed is held at 95 kt, based on an\naverage of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and CIMSS at the\nUniversity of Wisconsin, but this could be a little generous.\n\nLee is headed toward an environment of strong wind shear and cooler\nwaters.  These more hostile conditions should cause the system to\nsteadily weaken during the next couple of days, and Lee will likely\nfall below hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours.  The system is\nexpected to lose its tropical characteristics in a little more than\n2 days when it will be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an\nenvironment of about 30 kt of westerly shear.  Dissipation is now\npredicted to occur by day 3, in agreement with the latest runs of\nthe GFS and ECMWF models.  The NHC intensity forecast is an update\nof the previous one, and it remains in good agreement with the ICON\nand HCCA consensus aids.\n\nLee has turned to the north at 8 kt on the western side of a\nmid-level ridge.  The hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating\nto the northeast later today when it becomes embedded in fast\nmid-latitude flow, and it should continue moving in that direction\nuntil it dissipates.  The models are tightly clustered, and only\nminor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 32.5N  57.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 34.5N  56.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 37.4N  53.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 41.0N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 44.7N  39.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":49,"Date":"2017-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  49\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nMaria's satellite presentation has not changed much during the past\nsix hours, with 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear continuing to\ndisplace much of the deep convection to the east of the center.\nDespite the discrepancy between aircraft observations and Dvorak\nestimates noted yesterday, a pair of ASCAT passes from a few hours\nago showed maximum winds in the 50-55 kt range.  Even with the\nassumption that the resolution of the ASCAT data may not have\nrevealed the highest winds, an analysis suggests that Maria has\nweakened back to a 60-kt tropical storm.  Little change in intensity\nis anticipated during the next two days while Maria moves over sea\nsurface temperatures of 26-27 degrees Celsius, and while vertical\nshear decreases during the next 24 hours.  After 48 hours, a marked\njump in shear and much colder waters should induce more weakening,\nand model guidance indicates that Maria should complete\nextratropical transition by day 3.  The extratropical low should\nthen be absorbed by a larger system over the northeastern Atlantic\nby day 4.  This scenario is in agreement with guidance provided by\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nMaria is becoming embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is\nnow moving toward the east-northeast, or 060/7 kt.  The cyclone is\nexpected to turn eastward very soon, but then turn back toward the\neast-northeast in 36 hours as a positively tilted trough moves off\nthe New England and Atlantic Canada coasts.  The speed differences\namong the track models are not as significant as they were\nyesterday, although the updated NHC track forecast was nudged\nsouthward for much of the forecast period to follow an overall\nmodest shift in the guidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/0900Z 36.8N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  28/1800Z 36.8N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/0600Z 37.0N  64.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  29/1800Z 38.0N  59.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/0600Z 40.0N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  01/0600Z 46.4N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":42,"Date":"2017-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  42\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nNortherly shear continues to adversely affect the organization of\nLee.  The central dense overcast has become fairly asymmetric, with\nmost of the cold cloud tops limited to the southern semicircle, and\nthe eye is also losing definition. All of the various objective and\nsubjective satellite-based intensity estimates have decreased, and\nthe initial intensity has been lowered to 85 kt, based on a blend of\nthese data.\n\nThe global models continue to indicate that the northerly shear will\nget stronger over the next two days.  This shear, combined with\nprogressively cooler SSTs along the forecast track of Lee, should\nresult in continued weakening.  The new intensity forecast shows a\nslightly faster weakening rate than before, in line with the latest\nintensity guidance.  The dynamical models all forecast Lee to\ndissipate near a frontal zone around 48 h.  The NHC forecast\nconservatively shows Lee as a tropical cyclone at that point, but\nit would not be surprising if the cyclone dissipated or became a\nremnant low between 36 and 48 h.\n\nLee is beginning to accelerate toward the north, and the initial\nmotion estimate is 010/10 kt.  The hurricane is forecast to turn\ntoward the northeast while accelerating in the fast mid-latitude\nflow until it eventually opens up into a trough in a couple of days.\nVery little change was made to the NHC forecast, which remains close\nto HCCA and near the center of the tightly clustered global models.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 33.7N  57.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 35.7N  55.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 39.0N  51.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 42.9N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 47.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":50,"Date":"2017-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  50\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nA burst of strong convection containing cloud top temperatures\ncolder than -70C has developed just east of the center since the\nprevious advisory. Based on the recent inner-core convective\ndevelopment and a Dvorak current intensity estimate of 3.5/55 kt,\nthe initial intensity estimate is being maintained at 60 kt for this\nadvisory. Also, the last AMSU overpass around 0200 UTC indicated\nthat Maria has retained tropical characteristics based on a deep\nwarm core that extends from near the surface to above the 200 mb\nlevel, accompanied by a warm anomaly of more than 2.5 deg C, present\nin the upper-levels of the cyclone.\n\nMaria is now situated on the north side of a strong deep-layer\nridge, and the initial motion estimate is now toward the east or\n085/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to move in a general easterly\ndirection for the next 12-24 h along the northern edge of the\naforementioned ridge. Afterwards, Maria is forecast to get caught up\nin west-southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough\nthat is currently located over the Great Lakes region, causing the\ncyclone to accelerate toward the east-northeast at forward speeds in\nexcess of 30 kt by 36 h. The new track guidance remains in excellent\nagreement with cross-track differences of only about 60 nmi and\nspeed differences of just a couple of knots. As a result, little\nchange was made to the previous advisory track, and the new NHC\nforecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, close to the\nvarious consensus models.\n\nLittle change in intensity is forecast during the next 36 h or so\nwhile Maria remains over SSTs of 26C-27C and the vertical shear is\nless than 10 kt. By 36 h and beyond, Maria will be moving over\nsub-25C SSTs, reaching 21 deg C water by 48 h. The colder water,\nalong with increasing wind shear and dry mid-level humidity values\nof less than 40 percent, should induce some weakening. Maria is\nexpected to become extratropical by 72 h due to these unfavorable\ndynamic and thermodynamic conditions. However, given the very cold\nwater that will exist beneath the cyclone, it is possible that Maria\ncould become extratropical as early as 48 h. The extratropical low\nis expected to be absorbed by a larger low or frontal system over\nthe northeastern Atlantic by 96 h, before the low moves across\nIreland. The intensity forecast remains in agreement with guidance\nprovided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/1500Z 36.8N  69.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  29/0000Z 36.9N  66.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/1200Z 37.4N  62.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0000Z 38.8N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/1200Z 41.3N  48.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 72H  01/1200Z 47.9N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":43,"Date":"2017-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  43\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Lee has continued to degrade over the\npast six hours.  The IR eye has opened on the northern side, and the\nlow-level center of circulation appears to be displaced to the\nnorth-northwest of the mid-level center.  Outflow in the northwest\nquadrant has also become severely restricted.  A blend of Dvorak\ncurrent intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the U-W CIMSS at\n1800 UTC was used as the basis for the initial intensity of 80 kt,\nbut it is possible this is generous, given the continued degradation\nof the satellite presentation since that time.\n\nNo significant changes were made to the track or intensity forecast.\nLee is now estimated to be moving toward the north-northeast, or 25\ndegrees, around 15 kt.  Lee should continue to accelerate toward the\nnorth-northeast to northeast ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude\ntrough for the next couple of days.  The dynamical models are still\ntightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast remains close to the\ntrack consensus.\n\nAlong this track, increasing shear and cooler SSTs will cause Lee to\ncontinue to weaken.  Between 36 and 48 hours, a combination of\nweakening and faster forward motion should cause Lee to open up into\na trough and dissipate.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the\nrelatively fast weakening trend of DSHP for the first 12 hours, and\nis close to the intensity consensus after that.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 35.1N  55.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 37.4N  53.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 41.2N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 45.6N  39.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":51,"Date":"2017-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  51\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nAfter the earlier burst of convection near the center of Maria, the\noverall convective pattern has become more ragged and cloud tops\nhave warmed. Westerly vertical shear has also displaced most of the\nconvective cloud shield to the east of the center. The most recent\nDvorak satellite intensity estimate from TAFB has decreased to 45\nkt, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON values have decreased to\n54 kt and 55 kt, respectively. Therefore, Maria's initial intensity\nhas been lowered to 55 kt for this advisory. Despite the ragged\nsatellite appearance, a 1431Z AMSU overpass indicated that Maria is\nstill a tropical cyclone based on a deep warm core that extends from\nnear the surface to above the 200 mb level, accompanied by a warm\nanomaly of at least 2.5 deg C in the middle- and upper-levels of the\ncyclone.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 090/11 kt. Maria is forecast to move\nin an easterly direction for the next 12 h or along the northern\nedge of a strong deep-layer ridge located to its south. By 24 h,\nacceleration and a turn toward the east-northeast is expected ahead\nan approaching deep-layer trough. By 36-48 h, Maria is forecast to\nturn toward the northeast and further accelerate, reaching forward\nspeeds of 30-35 kt when the cyclone will be moving over the far\nNorth Atlantic. The latest track guidance continues to remain in\nexcellent agreement on this developing track scenario, and only a\nslight nudge to the south of the previous forecast was required.\n\nLittle change in intensity is forecast during the next 36 h or so\nwhile Maria remains over marginal SSTs of 25-26C and within a low to\nmoderate vertical wind shear environment. By 36 h and beyond, Maria\nwill be moving over sub-24C SSTs, reaching 21 deg C water by 48 h\nor so. Increasing westerly wind shear of more than 40 kt should\ninduce a slow weakening trend, and Maria is now expected to become\nextratropical by 48 h due to the aforementioned unfavorable\nconditions. The extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a\nlarger low or frontal system over the northeastern Atlantic by 96 h,\nbefore the low moves across Ireland. The intensity and wind radii\nforecasts at 48 and 72 h are based on guidance provided by the NOAA\nOcean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  28/2100Z 36.8N  67.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/0600Z 37.1N  64.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  29/1800Z 38.1N  58.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/0600Z 40.0N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  30/1800Z 42.7N  44.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  01/1800Z 48.8N  26.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":44,"Date":"2017-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  44\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nDue to the 40 kt of belligerent northerly shear impinging on the\nnorthern half of the cyclone, Lee's surface circulation center\nhas become partially exposed near the northwestern edge of the\ncloud canopy.  A compromise of the subjective and objective Dvorak\nsatellite T-number estimates yields a reduced initial intensity of\n70 kt.  Persistent strong northerly to northwesterly shear and\ndecreasing oceanic temperatures should further weaken Lee during the\nnext 36 hours.  Afterward, the global models indicate that the\nsystem will become absorbed by a larger baroclinic system over the\nnorthern Atlantic.  The official intensity forecast is similar to\nthe previous one, and is an average of the Decay-SHIP and LGEM\nmodels.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.\nThe decaying cyclone is expected to continue accelerating toward\nthe northeast within deep-layer mid-latitude southwesterly flow\nuntil dissipation occurs in 48 hours.  The NHC forecast follows the\nTVCN multi-model consensus and the ECMWF closely, and is basically\nan update of the previous track forecast.\n\nLee's wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent 0012 UTC\nASCAT-B scatterometer overpass.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 36.3N  54.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 39.1N  51.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 43.2N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 47.6N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":52,"Date":"2017-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  52\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM AST Thu Sep 28 2017\n\nThe satellite presentation of Maria has degraded over the past\n12 hours or so, with the area of deep convection decreasing in\ncoverage and becoming displaced to the east of the center due to\nsome westerly shear.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from\nTAFB and SAB are 45 kt, while the UW-CIMSS ADT is 50-55 kt. Based on\nthe latter, the initial wind speed is maintained at 55 kt for this\nadvisory.\n\nMaria is beginning to accelerate eastward, with an initial motion\nestimate of 080/15 kt.  The tropical storm is forecast to turn\neast-northeastward on Friday ahead of an approaching deep-layer\ntrough.  Maria should continue to accelerate east-northeastward to\nnortheast over the north Atlantic on Saturday before it is absorbed\nby a frontal boundary over the northeastern Atlantic.  The track\nguidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is\nessentially an update of the previous advisory.\n\nMaria is forecast to change little in intensity over the next\nday or so while it moves over marginal SSTs and remains in low to\nmoderate shear conditions.  After that time, baroclinic forcing\nand the rapid forward speed of the cyclone should again help Maria\nmaintain its intensity until it completes extratropical transition\nin about 48 hours.  The global models indicate that the\nextratropical low will weaken over the northeastern Atlantic\nby day 72 h, and be absorbed by a frontal system by day 4.\n\nThe post-tropical intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h\nare based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0300Z 37.1N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  29/1200Z 37.5N  61.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/0000Z 39.1N  55.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/1200Z 41.5N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/0000Z 44.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/0000Z 50.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  03/0000Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lee","Adv":45,"Date":"2017-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Lee Discussion Number  45\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nLee's low-level center is partially exposed along the northern edge\nof the convective canopy due to almost 40 kt of northerly shear.\nASCAT data from last evening showed winds as high as 70 kt, so\nassuming some weakening due to the belligerent shear, the initial\nintensity is lowered to 65 kt.  Lee will be crossing the tight SST\ngradient to the north of the Gulf Stream within the next 6-12\nhours, and along with continued strong shear, this should cause the\ncyclone to weaken further and become a tropical storm later today.\nGlobal model guidance then indicates that Lee will dissipate in the\nfast flow ahead of an approaching cold front by 36 hours.  Even\nafter Lee's circulation opens up, a swath of strong winds will\nlikely continue eastward toward Ireland and the United Kingdom by\ndays 2 and 3.\n\nLee is accelerating northeastward with an initial motion of 040/22\nkt.  The cyclone should maintain that heading with its speed\nincreasing further up until the time it dissipates.  The track\nguidance is tightly clustered for the next 24 hours before\ndissipation, and the NHC forecast is mainly an update of the\nprevious one.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 38.3N  52.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 41.1N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 45.4N  39.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":53,"Date":"2017-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  53\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nMaria is producing a relatively small cluster of deep convection\nthat is displaced to the east of the center due to 15 kt of\nwesterly shear.  Scatterometer data from last evening showed some\n45-kt wind vectors south of the center, so Maria's initial\nintensity is estimated to be 50 kt, accounting for the low\nresolution of the ASCAT instruments.  Maria will continue to move\nover waters of at least 26 degrees Celsius for at least the next\n24-36 hours, although vertical shear will be increasing over the\ncyclone fairly soon.  The first stages of extratropical transition\nare likely to begin later today, and baroclinic forcing could allow\nMaria to regain a little bit of strength, which is shown by both the\nGFS and ECMWF models over the next couple of days.  Maria should be\nfully extratropical by 48 hours and then be absorbed within a\nfrontal zone a little after 72 hours.  Some of the global models,\nsuch as the GFS and UKMET, show this absorption occurring sooner\nthan that.\n\nMaria is accelerating eastward within the mid-latitude westerlies\nwith an initial motion of 085/18 kt.  The cyclone should turn\neast-northeastward later today, ahead of a mid-latitude trough\nmoving off the northeastern U.S. and Atlantic Canada coast, with\nacceleration continuing up until the time Maria dissipates.\nAlthough the ECMWF model is an outlier and has a slower solution\ncompared to the other guidance, the NHC track forecast remains\nclose to the other models and the various consensus aids.\n\nThe post-tropical intensity and wind radii forecasts at 48 and 72 h\nare based on guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/0900Z 37.2N  63.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  29/1800Z 37.9N  59.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/0600Z 39.8N  52.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  30/1800Z 42.1N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  01/0600Z 45.0N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/0600Z 51.4N  16.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 96H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":46,"Date":"2017-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  46\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nLee continues to accelerate toward the northeast, and the estimated\nmotion is now 045/27 kt.  Due to continued strong northerly shear,\nthe low-level center of Lee is exposed and deep convection is\nconfined to the southeast quadrant of the cyclone.  No new ASCAT\ndata has been available since yesterday evening, but some weakening\nsince the last advisory is assumed, given the limited extent of\nconvection.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt, making\nLee a tropical storm.\n\nLee is crossing a tight SST gradient north of the Gulf Stream, and\nwill be passing over SSTs below 23 deg C within the next couple of\nhours.  The cold SSTs, plus continued high shear, should cause the\ncirculation of Lee to continue to spin down over the next day or\ntwo, while the cyclone continues to accelerate toward the northeast.\nSome of Lee's spin-down will likely be offset by the increasing\nforward speed of the cyclone, limiting how much the wind speed can\ndecrease, but the dynamical models still forecast that Lee will open\nup into a trough in 24 to 36 h.  Very little change has been made to\nthe NHC track or intensity forecasts, which remain close to the\ntrack and intensity consensus aids.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 40.1N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 43.1N  43.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 47.6N  32.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":54,"Date":"2017-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  54\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nAlthough Maria is trying to race east-northeastward ahead of a cold\nfront, satellite images indicate that cold air is already beginning\nto entrain into the circulation of the tropical cyclone. Most of\ndeep convection is limited to a curved band to the east of the\ncenter and an average of Dvorak estimates indicate that the maximum\nwinds are still 50 kt.  The winds could increase a little due to\nbaroclinic forcing later today while Maria acquires extratropical\ncharacteristics. Maria should become post-tropical in about 36\nhours, and then dissipate or be absorbed by a larger cyclone around\nday 3.\n\nMaria is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and is\nracing toward the east-northeast at 27 kt. This steering pattern is\nforecast to persist, and Maria is anticipated to continue on this\ntrack with an increase in forward speed until dissipation. The NHC\nforecast uses guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center\nand is also in very good agreement with track models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/1500Z 37.5N  60.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0000Z 38.6N  55.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  30/1200Z 40.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  01/0000Z 43.5N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  01/1200Z 46.5N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":47,"Date":"2017-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  47\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nLee is passing over waters near 22 deg C, and convection is quickly\ndisappearing.  Although satellite classifications are lower, the\ninitial intensity has been lowered only to 55 kt, since the forward\nspeed of the tropical storm continues to increase and this is likely\nhelping to counter the loss of convection.  Regardless of the true\nintensity, Lee will soon dissipate as it continues accelerating\ntoward the northeast, and the circulation spins down over the next\n12 to 24 hours.  The NHC forecast conservatively shows Lee as a\ntropical cyclone for 12 more hours, but it would not be surprising\nif the system becomes a remnant low as early as tonight before\nopening into a trough and dissipating on Saturday.\n\nAs noted above, Lee has continued to accelerate toward the\nnortheast, and the initial motion estimate is now 045/31 kt. The\ndynamical models are in good agreement that Lee will continue on\nthat heading, with an increase in forward speed for the next 12\nhours or so.  Almost no change has been made to the official track\nforecast, and the models remain tightly clustered through the\nvery short forecast period.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 42.2N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 45.5N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":55,"Date":"2017-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  55\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern has deteriorated and the only convection left is\nis a curved band of thunderstorms to the east of the center. Latest\nSSMI microwave data clearly indicate that the low- and mid- level\ncenters are rapidly becoming separated. However, Dvorak estimates\nstill call for an initial intensity of 50 kt at this time.  Cold air\ncontinues to entrain into the cyclone and Maria has probably already\nbegan to acquire extratropical characteristics. Given the cold water\nalong the forecast track, Maria will probably become extratropical\nin about 36 hours or even sooner.\n\nThe track is straightforward since the cyclone is well embedded in\nthe mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern will continue to\nsteer Maria on a general east-northeast track with increasing\nforward speed until dissipation over the cold waters of the North\nAtlantic.\n\nThe NHC forecast incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean\nPrediction Center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  29/2100Z 37.8N  57.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/0600Z 39.0N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  30/1800Z 41.5N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  01/0600Z 44.0N  38.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  01/1800Z 47.5N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  02/1800Z...ABSORBED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":48,"Date":"2017-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  48\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nLee has been devoid of deep convection for the past 6 hours due to\nstrong northwesterly vertical wind shear and sea-surface\ntemperatures near 20 deg C. The initial intensity has been lowered\nto 50 kt based on a UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of 51 kt and\ntypical decay rate for tropical cyclones at that latitude. Lee is\nforecast to become an extratropical low in the next 6-12 h due to\naforementioned strong shear and cold ocean temperatures. However,\ndue to a continued increase in forward speed, little change in\nstrength is expected until dissipation occurs in 12-24 hours\ndespite the lack of any significant convection with the system.\n\nLee has continued to accelerate toward the northeast, and the\ninitial motion estimate is now 060/36 kt. For the next day or so,\nLee will remain embedded within deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead\nof a mid-/upper-level trough, and continue to accelerate toward the\nnortheast. Since the models remain tightly clustered, no change was\nmade to the previous forecast track.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 44.3N  42.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 47.8N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":56,"Date":"2017-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  56\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017\n\nMaria continues to gradually lose tropical cyclone characteristics\nas cool and dry air entrains into the western side of the\ncirculation.  However, a small area of convection remains to the\neast of the center, and recent microwave sounding data indicates\nthe cyclone still has a warm core.  The initial intensity remains\n50 kt based on a combination of subjective satellite intensity\nestimates and the CIMSS satellite consensus technique.  Maria is\nnow expected to become extratropical in about 24 h, and the system\nis likely to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low after the\n48-h point.\n\nThe initial motion is 070/27.  Maria is embedded in the\nmid-latitude westerlies and should continue to move quickly\neast-northeast for the remainder of the cyclone's life.  The NHC\nforecast, which is changed little from the previous advisory,\nincorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0300Z 38.6N  53.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/1200Z 40.1N  48.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/0000Z 42.7N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  01/1200Z 45.6N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/0000Z 48.0N  26.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Lee","Adv":49,"Date":"2017-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL142017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Lee Discussion Number  49\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017\n\nLee is now over water colder than 20 degrees Celsius and is being\nblasted by 35 kt of west-northwesterly shear, and it has not been\nproducing deep convection for at least the past 12 hours.  The\ncyclone has therefore become post tropical, and this will be the\nlast advisory.  Without any deep convection, subjective and\nobjective Dvorak numbers have decreased, and the initial intensity\nis estimated to be 45 kt.\n\nLee continues to accelerate northeastward with an initial motion\nestimate of 050/44 kt.  Continued acceleration is expected today,\nalthough the global model fields indicate that Lee's circulation\nwill open up into a trough within the next 6 to 12 hours.  A\n12-hour point is provided in the official forecast for continuity's\nsake, but Lee will most likely have dissipated by then.\n\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\nForecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and in\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header\nFQNT21 EGRR.  These forecasts are available on the web at\nhttp://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin and at\nhttp://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 46.7N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  30/1800Z 49.9N  24.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 24H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":57,"Date":"2017-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  57\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017\n\nDespite now being over sea surface temperatures of around 25\ndegrees Celsius, Maria is producing a persistent cluster of deep\nconvection that is displaced to the east of the center due to 15 kt\nof west-northwesterly shear.  Satellite imagery shows cold\nadvection occurring within the western part of the cyclone's\ncirculation behind an approaching cold front, heralding the\nbeginning of Maria's extratropical transition.  Based on global\nmodel guidance, this transition should be complete within 24 hours,\nand Maria's intensity is unlikely to change much up until that time\ndue to baroclinic forcing.  The extratropical low is likely to\ngradually weaken after 24 hours and become absorbed within a\nfrontal zone by day 3, if not sooner.\n\nMaria is accelerating east-northeastward in the flow ahead of a\npositively tilted trough moving off the northeastern coast of North\nAmerica, and the initial motion estimate is 070/28 kt.  The trough\nshould continue steering Maria even faster toward the east-northeast\nfor the next couple of days.  The GFS is significantly faster than\nthe ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models since it shows Maria becoming\nabsorbed by the front much sooner.  The NHC track forecast remains\nclose to the latter models and is relatively unchanged from the\nprevious forecast.\n\nGuidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the\ntrack, intensity, and wind radii forecasts during Maria's\npost-tropical stages.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/0900Z 39.6N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  30/1800Z 41.3N  45.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  01/0600Z 43.8N  38.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  01/1800Z 46.6N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/0600Z 48.9N  20.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":58,"Date":"2017-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\n\nTropical Storm Maria Discussion Number  58...Corrected\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n1100 AM AST Sat Sep 30 2017\n\nCorrected for misspelled word\n\nMaria is on its way to becoming extratropical as cold air continues\nto wrap around the circulation. The cloud pattern has become\nelongated, while microwave data show that the low- and mid-level\ncenters are rapidly becoming detached. However, Maria is still able\nto produce a small but concentrated area of deep convection just to\nthe east of the center, and the maximum winds are still estimated at\n50-kt.  Maria should transition to an extratropical low by later\ntoday or tonight, and then it should be absorbed by a frontal zone\nin a couple of days.\n\nThe track continues to be straightforward. Maria is embedded in the\nfast mid-latitude westerlies, and this flow should steer the cyclone\ntoward the east-northeast with increasing forward speed until\ndissipation or it is absorbed by a cold front.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/1500Z 40.7N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  01/0000Z 42.5N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  01/1200Z 45.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  02/0000Z 47.5N  26.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/1200Z 49.0N  17.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Maria","Adv":59,"Date":"2017-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL152017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Maria Discussion Number  59\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017\n500 PM AST Sat Sep 30 2017\n\nActive deep convection at the center of Maria appears to have ceased\nthis morning after the cyclone crossed a sharp SST gradient, and\nSSTs below 23 deg C are unlikely to allow persistent convection to\nredevelop.  Recent visible satellite imagery and data from a late\narriving ASCAT pass at 1348 UTC indicate the presence of a sharp\nwind shift extending from near the center of Maria well to the\nnortheast, suggesting that the cyclone has acquired frontal\ncharacteristics. Based on this, Maria is now classified as\nextratropical, and this is the last advisory.\n\nThe earlier ASCAT data was used as the basis for the initial\nintensity of 45 kt.  Maria has continued to move quickly toward the\neast-northeast, and all of the models indicate that the\npost-tropical cyclone will continue on this track for the next day\nor two.  Gradual weakening is anticipated until dissipation occurs\nwithin a larger frontal zone over the North Atlantic in about 48\nhours.  The NHC forecast incorporates guidance from NOAA's Ocean\nPrediction Center.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  30/2100Z 42.0N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 12H  01/0600Z 43.8N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 24H  01/1800Z 46.4N  31.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 36H  02/0600Z 48.9N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\n 48H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 27 1998\r\n\r\nSHIP REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING SCATTEROMETER WINDS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS A WELL-\r\nDEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND WE ARE IDENTIFYING IT AS TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION NUMBER ONE.\r\n\r\nTRACKING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS GIVES A MOTION OF 280/24.  THE 00Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS STEERING CURRENTS MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 KNOTS\r\nSO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 280/20.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS.\r\n\r\nTHERE WERE THREE SHIPS AT 06Z IN THIS SYSTEM SHOWING A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS THAT\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...SSTS ARE PLENTY\r\nWARM AND THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 11.5N  27.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 12.0N  29.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 12.8N  33.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 13.1N  36.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.5N  40.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 14.0N  47.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 27 1998\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS THAT WHILE\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...CONVECTION HAS\r\nDIMINISHED AROUND THE CENTER.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nMAINTAINED AT 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE SYSTEM IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS...AND CALLS FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nINTENSITY MODEL. \r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES PLACE THE CENTER A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD... \r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nBRINGS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROF/LOW SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 40W.    \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL DECELERATION DUE TO \r\nTHIS FEATURE. \r\n\r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 12.2N  27.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.8N  30.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 13.6N  33.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.4N  36.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N  40.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N  47.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 27 1998\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE BUT ELONGATED ENVELOPE AND IT\r\nLACKS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nOVER WARM WATERS...THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND HAS SUCH A\r\nLARGE ENVELOPE...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT...TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING.  \r\nHOWEVER... SINCE THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 12 HOURS AND\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 49 KNOTS...ONLY A SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES AND THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nTHAT DEPEND ON THE AVN FORECAST FIELDS TURN THE DEPRESSION TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS.  THIS TURN IS CAUSED BY A DEVELOPING\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE AVN. \r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN MORE OF A 500\r\nMB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THAT PATTERN WOULD\r\nSUGGEST A WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT VERY CLOSE TO CLIPER.\r\nTHERE IS TIME TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TRACK MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...IF NECESSARY.  \r\n\r\nNOGAPS TRACKING ALGORITHM DROPS THE DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO \r\nBUT AN INSPECTION OF LOW-LEVEL FIELDS FROM THE 12Z RUN...ONE CAN\r\nOBSERVE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOVING DISTURBANCE WHICH APPROACHES\r\nTHE LESSER ANTILLES IN 5 DAYS OR SO.   \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 12.5N  29.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.9N  32.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 13.5N  36.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N  39.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 15.5N  42.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N  47.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N 20W\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 20N 30W...WHICH MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR\r\nTHE DISTORTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN.  MOREOVER THE CYCLONE IS STILL \r\nINVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW FEEDING TOWARDS WESTERN\r\nAFRICA.  THE ABOVE TWO FACTORS MAY BE PREVENTING THE DEPRESSION FROM\r\nSTRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nRUN SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH MIGRATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND A MORE\r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW BUILDING OVER THE AREA OF THE DEPRESSION.  ALSO AS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVES FARTHER WEST IT SHOULD ESCAPE FROM THE MONSOON\r\nTROUGH AND PERHAPS ENCOUNTER BETTER LOW-LEVEL INFLOW.  ONLY TIME\r\nWILL TELL OF COURSE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT ONE SHOULD\r\nBEAR IN MIND THE FACT THAT WE HAVE EXCEEDINGLY LIMITED SKILL IN\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nIT IS NOT EASY TO FIX A CENTER FROM INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE MORE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nBUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS CLOSEST TO THE SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.\r\n\r\nIF THE SYSTEM WERE TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN\r\nFORECAST...IT WOULD LIKELY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE HIGHER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 12.6N  30.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 13.0N  33.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 13.7N  36.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N  39.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.5N  41.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 17.5N  46.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17...SAME AS LAST ADVISORY.  THE\r\n00Z RUN OF THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION TURNING TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...APPARENTLY FINDING A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  THE UKMET SHOWS\r\nMORE OF A WEST-NORTHEWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nLOSE THE CIRCULATION BY 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nCALLING FOR A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SOME\r\nDECELERATION.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY-WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS MORNING. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T NUMBERS 2.0 TO 2.5.  THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGHENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 12.9N  33.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 13.3N  36.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 14.2N  40.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.9N  42.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.5N  45.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 18.0N  49.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-07-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/21 AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE\r\nDEPRESSION TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THIS IS EXACTLY THE SAME SCENARIO\r\nAS THE 00Z MODEL RUN AND ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE LAST PACKAGE.  SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY CONSIDERABLE DECELERATION.  AS\r\nBEFORE...THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION IN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE AND\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH WHILE KGWC GAVE A 2.0 T NUMBER.   HOWEVER I PREFER TO\r\nWAIT FOR THE APPEARANCE OF SOME MORE DEEP CONVECTION BEFORE\r\nUPGRADING TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...IS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL.  \r\n\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LARGE AND THE WIND SPEED RADII IN THE\r\nFORECAST/ADVISORY ARE INCREASED A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 13.5N  36.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 14.0N  39.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N  43.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.0N  46.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N  48.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.0N  51.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-07-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED A LITTLE THIS EVENING NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER AND IN A BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS\r\nDEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH TAFB AND SAB GIVING DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 2.5...SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nALEX WITH 35 KT WINDS.  THE SPURT IN FORWARD SPEED NOTED EARLIER\r\nTODAY SEEMS TO HAVE ENDED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT\r\n280/18 KT.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE\r\nVORTICES TO THE NORTH TO NE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THE 12Z AVN\r\nHAS THIS FEATURE PRIMARILY IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...PERHAPS MOST\r\nDISTINCT NEAR 300 MB.  AT 500 MB...IT SHOWS A WESTWARD RETROGRESSION\r\nOF AN ANTICYCLONE FROM 35-40W TO 55-60W OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT\r\nINDICATES THAT THE HIGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ALEX\r\nFROM GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A GREATER NORTHWARD COMPONENT.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT IDEA...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  FURTHER\r\nDECELERATION IS ALSO PREDICTED.  ALTERNATELY...THE 12Z NOGAPS SHOWS\r\nTHE RETROGRADING HIGH TO BE STRONGER...AND KEEPS THE STORM AT FAIRLY\r\nLOW LATITUDE...LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST POINT AT\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAWAY FROM THE CENTER...MOST FACTORS INFLUENCING INTENSITY...AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...POINT TOWARD\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nA SHIP REPORT OF 10 KT 150 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AT 18Z\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE WIND RADII ARE NOT TOO LARGE AS YET...AT LEAST IN\r\nTHAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 13.8N  37.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 14.3N  40.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N  43.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 15.8N  45.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 16.8N  48.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 19.5N  51.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-07-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUL 29 1998\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...BUT THERE\r\nARE NO BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 35 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE\r\nTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX IS\r\nMOVING INTO A COL IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING A WEAK SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  SO...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  THIS IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...\r\nCURRENTLY THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SMALL.  THUS THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE NOT ESTIMATED TO BE VERY LARGE\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE\r\nOBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.  DEEP LAYER STEERING FROM THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DEVELOPING SOON. \r\nTHIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY BEING DRAWN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF ALEX...FROM A TROUGH THAT IS NOW NORTH OF THE\r\nSTORM.  HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS ALSO SHOW A STRONG MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC HIGH NORTH OF 20N AND WEST OF 50W IN DAY OR TWO.  IF\r\nTHE ABOVEMENTIONED VORTICITY FEATURE IS NOT SO PROMINENT...THEN ALEX\r\nMAY BE FORCED ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  INDEED...THIS IS WHAT IS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFDL GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nPASCH    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 13.8N  39.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.2N  42.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.8N  45.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N  47.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N  54.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-07-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 29 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF ALEX IS WEST OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS\r\nSUGGESTS WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nALEX IS MOVING INTO A COL IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTING A\r\nWEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT ANALYSES\r\nFROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES.\r\n\r\nTHUS...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESERVED.    \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/17 KNOTS.  THE 12Z TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A BIT LESS SCATTER THAN EARLIER WITH MOST\r\nINDICATING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE AND A SLOWING IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE PRIMARY QUESTION REGARDING THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n25N55W WHICH WOULD IMPART A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION.\r\nIF THIS FEATURE IS NOT SO PROMINENT...THEN ALEX MAY BE FORCED ON A\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK...PER THE 06Z GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALLS FOR A WESTWARD\r\nHEADING THROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 14.1N  41.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.6N  43.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.1N  46.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.7N  49.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N  52.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  56.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUL 29 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE DAY ALTHOUGH\r\nIT IS NOT TERRIBLY WELL-ORGANIZED.  THE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT IS\r\nTHAT THE CONVECTION IS FORMING CLOSER TO THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT\r\nALEX IS MOVING INTO A LIGHTER VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER\r\n...THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OUTFLOW AND THE DRIER AIR NOTED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF ALEX IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nOVERALL...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY HEALTHY AND THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WITH PROGRESSIVELY WARMER SST/S AHEAD AND\r\nIMPROVING UPPER ENVIRONMENT. \r\n\r\nA NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC OFFICE DRIFTING BUOY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A 10 METER/6 MINUTE WIND OF \r\n31 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1013 MB AT 18Z.  THIS IS CONSISTENT \r\nWITH OUR CURRENT TROPICAL STORM RADII.\r\n  \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY. \r\nCLOSE INSPECTION OF THE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS A \r\nTAD SOUTH AND IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 275/14 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX\r\nUPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nDEVELOPS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. \r\nAS A RESULT...THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW A GENERAL\r\nWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nCOURSE.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE THE SOUTHERN-MOST TRACKS.  WHILE\r\nTHERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FEATURES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE LAST\r\nADVISORY. \r\n\r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 13.9N  41.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.1N  44.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.5N  47.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 15.3N  49.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N  56.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-07-30 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 29 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES OF ALEX SHOW A LESS COHERENT PATTERN THAN 24\r\nHOURS AGO.  DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND\r\nTHE OVERALL CONFIGURATION...PARTICULARLY AT MID LEVELS...HAS BEEN\r\nELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY AN INTERACTION WITH A\r\nCOMPLEX CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AGAIN 35 KT.\r\n \r\nALEX IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 13 KT.  WHETHER ALEX\r\nHAS A DIRECT IMPACT ON THE LESSER ANTILLES DEPENDS ON HOW SOON AND\r\nHOW MUCH THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH IS ERODED\r\nWHEN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST IS REINFORCED.\r\nYESTERDAY...THE 12Z NOGAPS SEEMED TO PROVIDE THE BEST GUIDANCE...\r\nKEEPING A STRONGER HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN\r\nSHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS.  THERE IS A SIMILAR DIFFERENCE TODAY WITH\r\nTHE NEW 18Z AVN NOW ALSO SHOWING A PROLONGED WESTWARD HEADING...\r\nTHROUGH 36-48 HOURS.  IN DEFERENCE TO YESTERDAYS PARTIAL\r\nVERIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nCLUSTER OF 12Z AVN-BASED TRACKS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE\r\nNOGAPS.\r\n  \r\nINTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE AND THE GFDL AND SHIPS SCHEMES\r\nBRING ALEX TO THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS STRENGTHENING...BUT THIS IS POSTPONED\r\nABOUT A DAY...UNTIL THE PERIOD WHEN THE AVN SHOWS A SOMEWHAT MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 14.3N  43.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N  45.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.0N  47.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 15.5N  50.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N  53.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N  58.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-07-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO LOOK LESS-ORGANIZED THAN IT DID 24 HOURS\r\nAGO...AND MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY SHEARING OVER ALEX...ALTHOUGH WATER\r\nVAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS FAIRLY WEAK SHEAR JUST AHEAD.  SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY THUS FAR...NO CHANGE\r\nIS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE SHIPS MODEL GIVES A SIMILAR INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AROUND 13 KT.  ACCORDING TO\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE/VORTMAX IS\r\nPREDICTED TO BE BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALEX IN 2-3 DAYS. \r\nTHIS FEATURE...IF IT VERIFIES...WOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST NOGAPS RUN PAINTS A\r\nSIMILAR PICTURE.  HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFDL MODEL RUN SHOWS A MORE\r\nSOUTHERN TRACK.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATTER MODEL...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ONLY BENDS THE TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.         \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 14.5N  44.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 14.8N  46.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 15.3N  49.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 16.0N  52.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 16.8N  54.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N  59.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-07-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE IS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE WINDS ARE ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nPARTIALLY RESTRICTED BUT IS ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM. THERE ARE\r\nHOSTILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE STORM...HOWEVER ...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE WESTERLIES WILL WEAKEN OR RETROGRADE AND\r\nTHEN SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY DEVELOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SOME STRENGTHENING SINCE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO 65 TO 65 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.  ON THE LONGER\r\nRANGE...4-5 DAYS... THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE\r\nFAVORABLE IN THE AREA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nALEX IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED\r\nDEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE AT ABOUT 280/13.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nHAVE A WEAKNESS ALONG 60-65 WEST. THIS WOULD INDUCE A TRACK MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nON THIS TRACK...ALEX WOULD SKIRT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT\r\nTHEY STILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFDL BUT TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE HIGH ALTITUDE NOOA JET IS SCHEDULED TO SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nSURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE FRIDAY.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 14.8N  46.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.1N  48.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.8N  50.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N  53.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N  56.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  60.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-07-30 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n\r\nALEX HAS MAINTAINED ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 3.0 SO THE WINDS ARE\r\nKEPT AT 45 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. ALEX IS DEFINITIVELY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHAN YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST AHEAD OF THE STORM BUT IT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ALEX\r\nTO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS MODELS.  ON THE LONGER RANGE...4-5 DAYS... THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nWINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN THE AREA BETWEEN PUERTO RICO\r\nAND BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SAME SCENARIO. A WELL\r\nESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO HAVE A\r\nWEAKNESS ALONG 60-65 WEST.  THIS PATTERN WOULD INDUCE A TRACK MORE\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF ALEX WOULD SKIRT THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IN FACT\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nLONG RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE TROUGH ALONG EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES.  IF THIS VERFIES...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL TAKE\r\nA MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 15.2N  46.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.6N  48.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 16.2N  51.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N  54.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-07-31 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n \r\nALEX IS GENERATING A CENTRAL AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH A\r\nFAIRLY SYMMETRICAL HIGH-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  AT AN INTERMEDIATE\r\nLEVEL...HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A DISTINCT SSW CURRENT ACROSS THE\r\nSTORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AHEAD OF THE STORM.  THIS IS\r\nJUST ONE PART OF A COMPLICATED CIRCULATION ALOFT THAT INCLUDES A\r\nWELL-DEFINED VORTEX SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF ALEX.  THE AVN MODEL SHOWS THAT VORTEX AT 300-500\r\nMB.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSE OUTFLOW AT CIRRUS LEVEL HAS OBSCURED THE CENTRAL\r\nFEATURES...MAKING POSITIONING SOMEWHAT MORE DIFFICULT.  ANALYSES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB..AND AFWA...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT A HEADING TOWARD\r\nTHE WNW HAS BEGUN...PERHAPS BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS NOW DEEP ENOUGH TO\r\nRESPOND MORE TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN ITS ENVIRONMENT.  THE MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 290/11 KT.  WIND SPEED IS NEAR 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE PATTERN ALOFT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN COMPLEX...WITH THE AVN\r\nKEEPING A VORTEX TO THE NW-N OF ALEX THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS\r\nIS INTERPRETED AS A GENERAL WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT PATTERN THAT\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT.  THE\r\nRELATIVE POSITIONS OF THE FEATURES WILL PROBABLY INFLUENCE HOW\r\nSMOOTH THE TRANSITION IN TRACK WILL BE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nLITTLE DIVERSITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCLUSTER OF MODEL TRACKS AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE 18 AVN AND 12Z\r\nNOGAPS FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 15.8N  47.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 16.3N  49.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 17.3N  51.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  53.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.7N  56.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 23.5N  60.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-07-31 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY AS A LARGE\r\nCDO TYPE FEATURE IS OBSCURING THE LOWER CLOUDS.  TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nOVER 60 NMI APART IN THEIR 0545Z POSITION ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...290/11...MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE POSITION IS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING SOME SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  IF THE\r\nCENTER IS ACTUALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALEX COULD\r\nBE STRONGER THAN WE ARE ESTIMATING AND ALSO MOVING WITH MORE OF A\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS ARE ALL CLOSELY CLUSTERED AND SHOW A MOSTLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR AND AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY ARE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...NOTING DTHAT THE STORM COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 16.2N  48.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.7N  50.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N  52.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  54.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  57.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 24.5N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-07-31 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n \r\nALEX HAS NOT INTENSIFY AS FORECAST. STRONGER THAN EXPECTED SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EXPOSED. THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nRELOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nNOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL\r\nPERSIST FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME...AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX\r\nUNTIL 72 HOURS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE AT THIS TIME. MOREOVER... WEAKENING MAY\r\nBE INDICATED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND\r\nIF ALEX SURVIVES...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS.  IF ALEX\r\nBECOMES COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND WEAKENS FURTHER... THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nMOVE MORE TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HAVE BECOME\r\nPREDOMINANT OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MAKING THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nVERY HOSTILE FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 15.5N  49.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.7N  51.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.5N  53.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N  55.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  57.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N  61.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-07-31 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n \r\nYESTERDAY...WE FORECAST THAT ALEX WAS GOING TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  INSTEAD...STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS HIT THE STORM REMOVING MOST OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER AND CONSEQUENTLY...WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED.  THIS\r\nWEAKENING WAS NOT INDICATED BY ANY OF THE AVAILABLE TOOLS AND\r\nREFLECTS HOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGES.\r\nAFTER THE FACT....IT IS SOMETIMES EASY TO FIND AN EXPLANATION.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE WIND SHEAR WILL PERSIST SO WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE AND ALEX COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTONIGHT OR SATURDAY.   INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35\r\nKNOTS AND WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nNOW THAT WE CAN SEE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...WE HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE INITIAL MOTION WHICH IS 280/10.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF ALEX.\r\nHOWEVER...IF IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY\r\nPROPAGATE WESTWARD SPREADING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. \r\n\r\nTHE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET HAS BEGUN TO SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nSURROUNDING ALEX.  \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 15.8N  51.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.0N  52.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N  55.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.5N  57.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  59.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.0N  62.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-08-01 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n \r\nALEX IS STILL GENERATING A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN PART OF ITS CIRCULATION AND...AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE ANALYSES...THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL A TROPICAL STORM.\r\nESTIMATED WINDS ARE 35 KT.  DATA FROM THE NOAA HIGH-ALTITUDE JET\r\nSEEMS TO CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEARING\r\nPATTERN MAINLY BELOW ALEX/S CIRRUS CANOPY LEVEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11 KT.  TRACK FORECASTING BECOMES MORE\r\nDIFFICULT THAN USUAL WHEN...LIKE NOW...IT IS ALSO TIED TO A HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN INTENSITY FORECAST.  THERE APPEAR TO BE THREE PRIMARY\r\nPOSSIBILITIES.  FIRST...IF THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY DECREASES\r\nTHEN ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WNW OR NW...\r\nDIMINISHING ANY THREAT TO THE CARIBBEAN.  SECOND...ALEX COULD WEAKEN\r\nFURTHER OR DISSIPATE WITH ITS REMNANTS MOVING NEARLY WESTWARD...\r\nAGAIN HAVING MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE CARIBBEAN.  THIRD...THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD REMAIN MUCH AS IT IS...UNIMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE PICTURES...\r\nBUT A POTENTIAL PRODUCER OF SOME HEAVY RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nLOCAL FLOODING AND HIGH WIND GUSTS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVING\r\nHIGH TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nWITH SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST...THE SECOND SCENARIO MIGHT BE THE\r\nMOST LIKELY.  HOWEVER...PARTLY TO BE CAUTIONS...THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nHAS A LITTLE MORE OF AN INKLING OF THE THIRD POSSIBILITY THAN WE\r\nHAVE INDICATED PREVIOUSLY.  THE TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT A\r\nLITTLE AND IF THIS TREND IS OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS\r\n...SOME CONSIDERATION WILL BE GIVEN TO ISSUING A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON\r\nSATURDAY.  THE NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN BAMS AND CLIPER...WHICH FORM THE\r\nSOUTHERN EXTREME OF TONIGHT/S MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 16.1N  52.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 16.3N  53.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.9N  56.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.9N  59.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N  61.6W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-08-01 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ALEX HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED MOST OF THE NIGHT \r\nWITH A MODEST AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH.  RECENTLY\r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER.  ALEX WILL BE\r\nMAINTAINED AS A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM...35 KNOTS... FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nIN ITS WEAKEN STATE ALEX/S MOTION IS BEING CONTROLLED BY LOW-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC STEERING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12\r\nKNOTS.  AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE TRACK AND INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS FOR ALEX ARE INTERTWINED. DATA FROM THE G-IV HIGH-ALTITUDE\r\nJET AIRCRAFT MISSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON REVEALED 30-40 KNOT SOUTH/\r\nSOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 200 AND 250 MB IN THE VICINITY OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT\r\n11 DEG NW OF ALEX HELPING TO BACK THE FLOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.  SO...THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST.  IF THE SHEAR DID RELAX ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN\r\nAND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST... AND MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO.  THIS SEEMS LIKE A LESS\r\nPLAUSIBLE POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH\r\n24 HOURS WITH A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST TRACK THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH BAM SHALLOW.  WITH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM THROUGH \r\n72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE ISSUE OF POSTING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION\r\nOF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL BE CONSIDERED LATER TODAY.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 16.1N  53.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 16.4N  55.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.2N  58.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.4N  60.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N  62.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 24.0N  66.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-08-01 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n \r\nALEX CONTINUES IN A SHEARED STATE WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED AND\r\nLOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS TO\r\nTHE NORTH WHERE WINDS ARE PROBABLY REACHING TROPICAL STORM FORCE.\r\nALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER...THE CI NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  WE WILL WAIT FOR THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA LATER TODAY...TO\r\nDETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION OR NOT.  THE\r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PERSIST SO STRENGTHENING IS NOT\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS...SUGGEST\r\nA MODEST STRENGTHENING BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHEAR RELAXES. THIS\r\nCOULD HAPPEN ONLY IS ALEX SURVIVES THAT LONG.  FOR NOW...WE WILL\r\nKEEP THE WINDS AT 35 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nALEX HAS TURNED MORE TO WEST-NORTHWEST...AS EXPECTED...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nTROUGH 72 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ALEX\r\nWILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH MOST OF THE\r\nSHOWERS AND SQUALLS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE OPEN\r\nATLANTIC.  BASED ON THIS FORECAST...WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT\r\nREQUIRED FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 17.5N  55.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N  57.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  59.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N  61.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 24.5N  68.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-08-01 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENTLY...THE OVERCAST HAS COVERED THE CENTER OF ALEX BUT IN\r\nGENERAL THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  THE RECON ESTIMATED 45 KNOTS AT THE\r\nSURFACE...OUR NEW INITIAL INTENSITY.... WITHIN AN ELONGATED CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION.  DATA FROM SHIP FNPH INDICATE GUSTS TO NEAR\r\nHURRICANE FORCE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nIS LIKELY TO PERSIST SO STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS...SUGGEST A MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHEAR RELAXES.  THIS COULD\r\nHAPPEN ONLY IF ALEX SURVIVES THAT LONG.  FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE\r\nWINDS AT 45 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION SINCE\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN JUMPING AROUND BUT IT APPEARS TO BE 295/13.\r\nLATEST RUN OF THE GFDL SHOWS THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROBABLY\r\nBUILD WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. RETROGRADES.\r\nTHEREFORE...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 18.1N  56.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.5N  58.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  60.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 22.5N  63.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  70.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-08-02 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n \r\nTHE RECON FLIGHT EARLY THIS EVENING TWICE PROVIDED CENTER FIXES...\r\nEACH WITH 1012 MB FOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.  A MORE RECENT SHIP\r\nREPORT FROM NEAR THE CENTER AT 00Z IMPLIES LITTLE CHANGE.  TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS WERE OBSERVED BY THE FLIGHT CREW...BUT ONLY IN THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS NORTH OF THE NOW ALMOST ENTIRELY EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY NOW AT MOST 45 KT. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 300/13 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF ALEX ARE COMPLICATED BY A\r\nFRACTURED CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH\r\nANOTHER LOW-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE WNW OF ALEX AND WITH SOME MODELS\r\nINDICATING THAT YET ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM THE BAROCLINIC\r\nZONE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ALOFT...A LARGE AND PERSISTENT\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED.  REMARKABLY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nRELATIVELY UNIFORM...SUGGESTING A WNW TO NW TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THOSE TRACKS AND\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFDL.\r\n  \r\nALEX/S INTENSITY WILL BE PARTLY A FUNCTION OF HOW IT NEGOTIATES A\r\nTRACK AROUND...OR THROUGH...THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. \r\nWITHOUT HAVING A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THAT INTERACTION WILL PLAY\r\nOUT...THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL SHOW NO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 19.1N  57.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 20.1N  59.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 21.7N  61.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 23.6N  64.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  66.3W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.5N  69.0W    45 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-08-02 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\n...CORRECTED DISCUSSION NUMBER...\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 1998\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nSTORM.  ALEX REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N64W WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS DROPPED BELOW STORM STRENGTH...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR THE\r\nAIR FORCE RECON LATER TODAY TO CONFIRM THIS.  SINCE THERE IS STILL A\r\nSLIM POSSIBILITY THAT UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME LESS\r\nHOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS INDICATED BY MODELS SUCH AS THE\r\nSTATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 35 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nALEX HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING AT AN\r\nESTIMATED 310/11.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACKS. \r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB LOW NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nCOAST WITH A HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA IN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS\r\nSUPPORTS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS MORE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD... MOVEMENT OF ALEX.\r\n\r\nPASCH \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 20.1N  59.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 21.2N  60.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.7N  62.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 24.5N  64.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N  65.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N  68.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alex","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-08-02 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 02 1998\r\n\r\nPERSISTENT SHEARING FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAS\r\nTAKEN ITS TOLL ON ALEX...ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATING IT.  REPORTS FROM A\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER PLANE SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION.   THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS. \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED AUG 19 1998\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AS THE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME MORE\r\nCONSOLIDATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  LOW CLOUD\r\nMOTIONS AND SHIP REPORTS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS\r\nSOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS.   UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS...SUCH AS THOSE ANALYZED BY THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES ON THE INTERNET...APPEAR MOSTLY\r\nFAVORABLE OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF\r\nSLIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  THE STATISTICAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...INDICATES STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE BECAUSE OF THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTING. \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nCOMPARED TO THE EARLIER CENTER FIXES...PARTIALLY REPRESENTS A\r\nREFORMATION OF THE CENTER AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZES.  OUR BEST\r\nINITIAL MOVEMENT ESTIMATE IS 295/17 AND OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  THIS LOOKS REASONABLE SINCE THE NUMERICAL MODELS ALSO\r\nSHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 16.0N  51.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N  53.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.8N  56.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  60.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  63.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  70.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED AUG 19 1998\r\n \r\nLAST LIGHT VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS BROAD\r\nAND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST AXIS.  THE BEST GUESS OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A CURRENT BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO RE-DEVELOP CLOSER\r\nTO THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE A SIGN OF STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nWHILE 00Z SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE CENTER MAY BE\r\nTRYING TO REFORM TO THE NORTH.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n295/16 KNOTS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nAS THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL AGREES ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND\r\nIS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LBAR AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS...THE FRINGE OF THE CYCLONE COULD AFFECT THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  WE HAVE BEEN\r\nUNABLE TO COORDINATE THE WATCH WITH THE FRENCH ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/MAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 16.5N  52.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.6N  54.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.9N  57.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.2N  61.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.4N  64.2W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N  71.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU AUG 20 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CIRCULATION CENTER AND DIMINISHING ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nNOTED AXIS EXTENDING TOWARD THE SE.  WHILE THIS IMPLIES AN IMPROVING\r\nORGANIZATION...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT\r\n2.0...JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nOFTEN THE NEMESIS OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES.  IN THIS CASE...THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS A REMARKABLY PROMINENT OUTFLOW ALOFT WITH...IF ANYTHING\r\n...SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT AHEAD IS FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST WHICH\r\nSHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION RATE APPROXIMATING THAT OF THE SHIP/S\r\nSCHEME.\r\n \r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A WNW HEADING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THE STRONG\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW ALONG THE EAST COAST SWINGING OFFSHORE AND\r\nLIKELY BYPASSING THE SYSTEM.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY ARE BASED ON THIS SEQUENCE.\r\n \r\nBEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE LARGE-SCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE\r\nMARKEDLY.  WHEN A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE\r\nCOAST...THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH...BETWEEN 66-70W.  THIS IS\r\nSIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS FROM THOSE MODELS.  THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...MAINTAINS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE HIGH\r\nTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 25-30N.  THIS KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A\r\nWNW TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...ENDING UP SOME 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE.  THIS GFDL TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS TRACK 6\r\nHOURS AGO.  THE NHC TRACK IS NORTH OF THE GFDL...ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...AND CLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS TRACKS.\r\n \r\nNO CHANGE TO THE WATCH IS MADE IN THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 16.8N  53.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.6N  55.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.7N  58.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.7N  61.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.9N  63.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 24.0N  70.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU AUG 20 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY WELL\r\nORGANIZED...AND MAY BE A TROPICAL STORM.  WE WILL AWAIT THE AIR\r\nFORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS LATER TODAY TO SEE IF WE SHOULD NAME THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE ANTICYLONIC OUTFLOW IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RAWINSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SHOW NO HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES TO IMPEDE\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  SO...STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE WAS APPARENTLY MOVING FASTER OVERNIGHT THAN EARLIER\r\nREPORTED AND HAS BEEN RELOCATED FARTHER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/20.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD\r\nTROUGH AT 500 MB MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AND THIS SHOULD PARTIALLY BREAK DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  CONSEQUENTLY MOST OF THE TRACK PREDICTION\r\nMODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER WE ARE\r\nCONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SINCE THE\r\nSTATE-OF-THE-ART  GFDL MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD\r\nTREND.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA G-4 JET AND BOTH NOAA P-3 PLANES WILL FLY A SYNOPTIC\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY AND THIS WILL GIVE US A BETTER\r\nPICTURE OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 18.0N  58.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.2N  61.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N  64.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.7N  67.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N  70.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 25.5N  73.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU AUG 20 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO 61 KNOTS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF A RATHER ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THIS WARRANTS\r\nUPGRADING T.D. TWO TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. ALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS\r\nA WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...ITS RAPID FORWARD\r\nTRANSLATIONAL SPEED IS APPARENTLY DISTORTING THE WIND FIELD NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.  THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS EVEN MORE LIKELY IF THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED SLOWS SOMEWHAT...AS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBONNIE HAS BEEN TRACKING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST TODAY...BUT\r\nPRACTICALLY ALL OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS EXCEPT THE GFDL SHOW\r\nA SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE RIGHT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A\r\nBREAKDOWN OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  NOTWITHSTANDING...OUT OF RESPECT FOR\r\nWHAT WE CONSIDER TO BE OUR MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE...THE GFDL...WE\r\nARE KEEPING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND\r\nPUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED\r\nFOR THESE AREAS.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG\r\nWINDS ARE RESTRICTED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF BONNIE.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS BEING SAMPLED BY A MAJOR SYNOPTIC FLOW\r\nEXPERIMENT INVOLVING BOTH THE NOAA P-3S AND G-4 AIRCRAFT.  FIFTY-\r\nNINE GLOBAL POSITIONING SONDES WILL BE DEPLOYED FROM THESE PLATFORMS\r\nFOR THE 00Z INITIALIZATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 17.9N  60.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.1N  63.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N  67.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N  70.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.5N  72.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N  75.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU AUG 20 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AT 2327Z STILL HAD THE\r\nCENTER ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THE MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1001 MB...BUT THE MAX FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON.  INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 45 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW LOOKS IMPRESSIVE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BONNIE IS STILL EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY OR\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/21.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE...\r\nRESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWARD TURN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS.  THE OUTLIER TONIGHT IS STILL THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH\r\nCONTINUES A MORE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  OUR\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nBASED ON TREMENDOUS RESPECT FOR THE GFDL DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nYEARS.  OUR OFFICIAL TRACK IS WELL LEFT OF THE UKMET...NAVY\r\nNOGAPS...AND AVIATION MODELS....BUT CONSIDERABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nGFDL.  \r\n\r\nTHE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY BEING SAMPLED BY A MAJOR\r\nSYNOPTIC FLOW EXPERIMENT INVOLVING BOTH THE NOAA P-3S AND G-4\r\nAIRCRAFT.  FIFTY-NINE GLOBAL POSITIONING SONDES WILL BE DEPLOYED\r\nFROM THESE PLATFORMS FOR THE 00Z INITIALIZATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 19.0N  62.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.1N  65.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 21.7N  68.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 23.4N  71.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 25.1N  72.7W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 28.5N  73.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nNO RECON DATA THIS MORNING UNTIL 12Z.  LIMITED SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nSUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OR INTENSITY OVER THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS AGAIN ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL AROUND 290 DEGREES...BUT MAY HAVE\r\nDECREASED A LITTLE...TO NEAR 19 KT.\r\n \r\nNEARLY 50 SONDES DEPLOYED BY NOAA AIRCRAFT LAST EVENING HAVE\r\nCONTRIBUTED TO THE MODEL INITIALIZATION.  THEY GIVE A HIGH...AND\r\nPERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...DENSITY OF SUCH OBSERVATIONS.  POSSIBLY AS A\r\nRESULT...THE TWO TRACK FORECAST SOLUTIONS HAVE CONVERGED\r\nSOMEWHAT...EACH CAMP IN A WAY COMPROMISING ON THE EXTREMES OF\r\nYESTERDAY.  MOST OF THE MODELS STILL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH...WITH THE GFDL TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE BIFURCATION IS\r\nNOT AS EXTREME AS YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFDL 72 HOUR\r\nPOSITION ABOUT 250 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE OTHERS...INSTEAD OF 500 NM.  \r\nTHIS MODEST CONVERGENCE OF TRACK FORECASTS IS CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG\r\nOUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND THE NEW NHC TRACK REPRESENTS A GENERAL\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS THINKING.  DECELERATION IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...INDICATE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE CARIBBEAN WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN\r\nEFFECT FOR THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.  THIS COULD BE\r\nUPGRADED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 19.9N  64.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.8N  66.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N  68.9W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 23.4N  71.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 24.9N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 28.0N  74.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nRECON THIS MORNING FOUND A 999 MB CENTER A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A\r\nTEMPORARY ADJUSTMENTS DURING THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE. INITIAL MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE 285/15 AND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING\r\nA WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE AND THAT MAY CAUSE A\r\nTRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL..CONSISTENTLY MAINTAINS A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BRINGING BONNIE AS A STRONG HURRICANE NEAR\r\nTHE WESTERN BAHAMAS BY 72 HOURS.  WITH SUCH A RELIABLE MODEL...I\r\nHAVE NO CHOICE BUT SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nBONNIE IS A LARGE SYSTEM AND IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE VERY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING BONNIE TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS PROMPTED A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE TURK\r\nAND CAICOS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL\r\nBAHAMAS.\r\n \r\nBONNIE COULD BE A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  WE ARE INSERTING A STATEMENT TO THE\r\nEFFECT ...RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nBONNIE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 19.8N  65.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 20.4N  67.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  70.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  72.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 23.5N  74.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.5N  76.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nWE WILL NOT HAVE ANY MORE RECON IN THE AREA UNTIL OOZ TONIGHT.\r\nEARLIER FIXES INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING ABOUT 290/15.\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 999 MB.  SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. BOTH SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT BONNIE COULD REACH 100 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS\r\nAND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE BIG DILEMMA IS WHETHER OR NOT THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL\r\nSTEER BONNIE NORTHWARD.  IN ANY CASE THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN WHICH WOULD SLOW BONNIE DOWN. NOGAPS BRINGS BONNIE CLOSER\r\nTO THE COAST THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AND THE\r\nLATEST GFDL MAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...CONTINUES VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL AND LBAR FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nBONNIE COULD BE A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE EAST U.S. COAST WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  WE ARE INSERTING A STATEMENT TO THE EFFECT\r\n...RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nBONNIE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET AND BOTH NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT ARE FLYING A\r\nSYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND BONNIE AND WILL BE DEPLOYING\r\nSIXTY DROPSONDES OVER THE ENVIRONMENT TO INITIALIZE THE NUMERICAL\r\nWEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 20.6N  66.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.3N  69.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  71.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N  73.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 24.0N  75.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 26.5N  76.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nBONNIE CONTINUES TO LOOK STRONGER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A VERY\r\nCOLD TOPPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND INCREASED BANDING FEATURES\r\nOVER THE NORTH AND WEST QUADRANTS.  RECON RECENTLY FOUND A 991 MB\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW STILL LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  BONNIE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nWITHIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE WILL BREAK DOWN\r\nLATER IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.  THE TIMING OF THIS\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION...OF COURSE...IS CRITICAL.  OUR CURRENT TRACK LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE LEFT OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFDL.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE UKMET...NAVY NOGAPS...AND AVN ARE\r\nCONSISTENTLY TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK.\r\n \r\nBONNIE COULD STILL BE A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE EAST U.S. COAST\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WE ARE INSERTING A STATEMENT TO THE\r\nEFFECT ...RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nBONNIE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET AND BOTH NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT ARE FLYING A\r\nSYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND BONNIE AND WILL BE DEPLOYING\r\nSIXTY DROPSONDES OVER THE ENVIRONMENT TO INITIALIZE THE NUMERICAL\r\nWEATHER PREDICTION MODELS.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 21.4N  68.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 22.2N  70.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.3N  72.3W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 24.3N  73.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  75.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 28.0N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n \r\nON THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE NEAR 0530Z...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nFOUND THAT A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAD FORMED.  THEY ALSO REPORTED\r\nA CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT.\r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED AT 65 KT.  THE\r\nMOTION HAS EDGED OVER TO 300 DEGREES...STILL AT 15 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nNOAA AIRCRAFT HAVE ONCE AGAIN PROVIDED THE NUMERICAL MODELS NUMEROUS\r\nVERTICAL SOUNDINGS OF BONNIE/S ENVIRONMENT TO IMPROVE FORECASTS OF\r\nTRACK AND INTENSITY.  THE RESULTING GUIDANCE AND OUR CONCERNS ARE\r\nLITTLE CHANGED.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING OF STEERING\r\nCURRENTS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH OF A\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH COULD INDUCE A GREATER\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO 6\r\nHOURS AGO SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN FROM WNW TO NW AND DECELERATION\r\nTHROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE GFDL TRACK AGAIN FORMS THE LEFT EDGE OF\r\nTHE ENSEMBLE...BUT ALL THE GFDL 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FOR\r\nBONNIE HAVE ENDED UP LEFT OF THE ACTUAL TRACK.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF GFDL...NEAR LBAR WHICH HAS HAD LITTLE LATERAL\r\nBIAS...AND CONSISTENT WITH OUR PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE\r\nCENTRAL BAHAMAS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL AND OCEAN ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 22.1N  69.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 23.1N  71.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 24.1N  73.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  74.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  75.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 28.5N  75.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n\r\n...COR FOR TIME\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT BONNIE\r\nIS RIGHT ON TRACK...300/14.  THERE IS NO APPARENT CHANGE IN THE BOTH\r\nCURRENT ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING BONNIE.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE WILL DRIVE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...\r\nALLOWING BONNIE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. THE GFDL\r\nMAKES A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL BUT REFLECTING THE CONSENSUS FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TURN BEYOND\r\n36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 980 MB SUGGESTING THAT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS OCCURRING. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS IMPROVING AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT. IN FACT...THE EYE\r\nIS BECOMING VISIBLE...AS THIS ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES BONNIE A CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON-\r\nSCALE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 22.7N  70.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 23.7N  72.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N  74.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  75.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 29.5N  76.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n\r\nALL CURRENT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BONNIE SHOULD TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHIS TURN IS ALSO FORECAST BY OUR STATE OF THE ART GFDL MODEL. THIS\r\nLESSENS ANY POSSIBLE THREAT OF LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.\r\nHOWEVER...ONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nBONNIE UNTIL THE EXPECTED TURN MATERIALIZES.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE POTENTIAL THREAT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nEAST COAST REMAINS. \r\n\r\nBONNIE HAS SLOWED DOWN...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 300/11.  THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN\r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A SLOW\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER MODELS. \r\n\r\nNOTE: LATEST NOGAPS KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF BONNIE NEAR THE SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE\r\nMEDIUM RANGE VERSION OF THE GFDL.  \r\n\r\nLATEST RECON DATA SHOWS THAT THE WINDS ARE 80 KNOTS AND MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 977 MB. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES\r\nBONNIE A CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON-SCALE AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 23.3N  71.0W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 24.1N  72.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 25.3N  74.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 26.5N  75.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 30.0N  76.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962\r\nMB...A SIGNIFICANT DROP OF 15 MB OVER 8 HOURS.  FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nDO NOT YET APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED TO MATCH THE PRESSURE DROP...BUT\r\nTHEY WILL.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AND\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...GIVEN THE LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE\r\nLOOKING OUTFLOW.\r\n \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS HAVE WEAKENED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS\r\nDOWN.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08..A DISTINCT SLOW DOWN OVER\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS.  ALL CURRENT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nBONNIE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO...STEERED...IN PART...AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF BONNIE.  OUR CURRENT TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST AVAILABLE GFDL MODEL RUN.  THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL IS A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT AND THE UKMET MODEL IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THIS TRACK LESSENS THE THREAT OF LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...ONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE UNTIL THE\r\nEXPECTED TURN MATERIALIZES.  IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nPROBABILITIES ALONG THE CAROLINAS HAVE INCREASED.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 23.6N  71.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 24.3N  72.8W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 25.6N  74.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 27.1N  74.8W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  75.4W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  76.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n\r\nTHE LAST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 959 MB...A 3 MB DECREASE SINCE 03Z AND AN 18 MB FALL IN\r\nTHE LAST 10 HOURS...AND A 25 NMI CIRCULAR EYE.  THE FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED WITH A MAXIMUM WIND OF 102 KNOTS RECORDED\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT \r\n90 KNOTS.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE WITH A\r\nSYMMETRIC RING OF -75C TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE AND EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE POSITION FIXES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MOTION OF BONNIE HAS BEEN SLOW AND ERRATIC.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS IS 310/06 KNOTS.  AS HAS\r\nBEEN THE CASE IN THE LAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES...THE FUTURE TRACK OF\r\nBONNIE IS HINGED ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...STEERED...IN PART...AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST.  A TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH MAY HELP TURN BONNIE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD.  THE AVIATION SHOWS THIS TROUGH MOVING FAR ENOUGH\r\nSOUTH TO PULL BONNIE NORTH WHILE THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE TROUGH STAYS SUFFICIENTLY NORTH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION.  \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nUKMET.   NOGAPS MODEL IS THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.   ALTHOUGH\r\nTHIS TRACK LESSENS THE THREAT OF LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...INTERESTS IN\r\nFLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE\r\nUNTIL THE EXPECTED TURN MATERIALIZES.  HISTORICALLY...THE LARGEST\r\nTRACK ERRORS OCCUR WITH RE-CURVING SYSTEMS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 23.8N  71.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 24.3N  72.3W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 25.3N  73.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 26.6N  74.2W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 28.5N  75.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 33.0N  76.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nIMPEDED A BIT...BONNIE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.  A HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANE IS FINDING WINDS OF AT LEAST 100 KNOTS AT THE 700 MB\r\nLEVEL...AND WINDS AT 850 MB ARE PROBABLY HIGHER.  ON SATELLITE...\r\nBONNIE HAS A CLASSICAL APPEARENCE.  THE COLD-TOPPED DENSE OVERCAST\r\nSURROUNDING THE EYE HAS GROWN IN SIZE.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nIS 100 KNOTS...MAKING BONNIE A MAJOR HURRICANE.  SOME FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  \r\n\r\nRECON AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...SO THE GUIDANCE MODELS WERE INITIALIZED WITH A FORWARD\r\nMOTION OF ZERO.  THE RESULTING OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY\r\nDIVERGENT...WITH 72 HOUR PREDICTIONS RANGING FROM NEAR THE CAROLINA\r\nCOAST TO WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE STEERING PATTERN\r\nIS BY NO MEANS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A\r\nWEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nBONNIE... AND HAS PROBABLY CAUSED THE STALLING OF THE HURRICANE.  IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL BYPASS BONNIE...THEREFORE A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO RESUME.   WATER VAPOR WINDS FROM\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SUGGESTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES...AND THIS COULD PREVENT A TURN\r\nAWAY FROM THE COAST IF IT PERSISTS.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER\r\nANOTHER UPSTREAM TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.\r\n...WILL EVENTUALLY PULL BONNIE AWAY FROM THE COAST.  ALL INTERESTS\r\nALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD MAINTAIN THEIR VIGILANCE AND\r\nMONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES. \r\n\r\nANOTHER MULTI-AIRCRAFT MISSION INVOLVING AIRCRAFT FROM BOTH NOAA AND\r\nNASA WILL PROVIDE EXTENSIVE SAMPLING OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT\r\nTODAY.  THEIR DATA SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THE INITIALIZATION AND BRING\r\nTHE TRACK PREDICTIONS TOGETHER...AND IMPROVE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.   \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 24.2N  71.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N  72.5W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 26.5N  73.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 28.1N  74.3W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 29.8N  75.2W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.5N  76.5W   110 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n\r\nAFTER DRIFTING TO THE NORTH EARLIER TODAY...BONNIE APPEARS TO NOW BE\r\nMOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH...THAT LIKELY INDUCED THE NORTHWARD NUDGE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...NOW APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AS IT BY PASSES BONNIE.  WE\r\nARE NOW FACED WITH THE DILEMMA OF THE FUTURE COURSE OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.  THE PROBLEM IS COMPOUNDED BY THE FACT THAT SOME OF OUR\r\nBEST TRACK PREDICTION MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT\r\nAS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.  LOOKING AT SOME OF THE MODEL\r\nFIELDS...THERE IS NOW A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT BONNIE COULD BE\r\nTRAPPED BENEATH A NARROW RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 36N LATITUDE OR SO.  IF\r\nTHIS IS THE CASE...BONNIE COULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST NEAR\r\nTHE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SINCE BONNIE\r\nHAS BEEN DWELLING OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA MOST OF TODAY...IT MAY\r\nHAVE COOLED THE SURFACE WATERS UNDERNEATH IT AND THIS MAY HAVE\r\nTEMPORARILY BRAKED THE STRENGTHENING TREND.  ANOTHER INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR MAY HAVE THE ABOVEMENTIONED TROUGH.  HOWEVER THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS A MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ALL BUT THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT.  ALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DIURNAL\r\nFLUCTUATIONS WHEREIN THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING MORE DURING\r\nTHE NIGHTTIME HOURS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BECOMING A LITTLE\r\nLESS ORGANIZED AROUND MIDDAY.  SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD MAINTAIN THEIR\r\nVIGILANCE AND MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES.  WE HAVE INSERTED A\r\nSTATEMENT INTO THE ADVISORY THAT A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON MONDAY\r\n \r\nANOTHER MULTI-AIRCRAFT MISSION INVOLVING AIRCRAFT FROM BOTH NOAA AND\r\nNASA WILL PROVIDE EXTENSIVE SAMPLING OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT\r\nTODAY.  THEIR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THE INITIALIZATION\r\nAND BRING THE TRACK PREDICTIONS TOGETHER...AND IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHIS VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 24.8N  71.8W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 25.3N  72.3W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 26.3N  73.0W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 27.6N  74.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 29.4N  75.4W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 33.0N  78.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n\r\nDATA FROM ONE OF THE P-3 AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF A\r\nDOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY...BUT OUR INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS CATEGORY THREE\r\nSTATUS THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 954 MB.\r\n \r\nBONNIE HAS WOBBLED AROUND A LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT A\r\nGENERAL DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR\r\nTONIGHT.  AS MENTIONED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THERE IS A\r\nDISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF BONNIE GETTING TRAPPED BY A NARROW RIDGE\r\nALONG 36N LATITUDE OR SO.  OUR CURRENT TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THEN SHIFTS MORE TOWARD THE\r\nLEFT.  THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE\r\nGFDL...DEEP LAYER BAM...AND UKMET MODELS.  THE NAVY NOGAPS IS WELL\r\nTO THE LEFT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE AVIATION IS WELL TO THE\r\nRIGHT INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.\r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD MAINTAIN\r\nTHEIR VIGILANCE AND MONITOR FUTURE ADVISORIES.  WE HAVE INSERTED A\r\nSTATEMENT INTO THE ADVISORY THAT A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST ON MONDAY.\r\n \r\nANOTHER MULTI-AIRCRAFT MISSION INVOLVING AIRCRAFT FROM BOTH NOAA AND\r\nNASA WILL PROVIDE EXTENSIVE SAMPLING OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. \r\nTHEIR OBSERVATIONS SHOULD HELP IMPROVE THE INITIALIZATION AND BRING\r\nTHE TRACK PREDICTIONS TOGETHER...AND IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHIS VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST SITUATION.  WE HAVE CAREFULLY LOOKED AT\r\nTHE AVAILABLE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET AND IT SEEMS TO FIT WELL WITH\r\nTHE 1800Z AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZATION...WHICH WAS THE BACKGROUND\r\nFIELD FOR THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 25.1N  71.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 25.7N  72.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N  73.4W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.4N  74.8W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 30.0N  76.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  80.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS STILL SLOW\r\nAND ERRATIC.  THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION IS 320/04 AND THIS WILL BE\r\nUSED AS THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASCINATING.  THE GFDL MODEL HAS CHANGED\r\nDRAMATICALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.  INSTEAD OF MOVING TO SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA IN 72 HOURS...THE LATEST RUN...BASED ON EXCELLENT DATA FROM\r\nA MULTI AIRCRAFT MISSION TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z ANALYSIS...SHOWS\r\nTHE NARROW RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKING DOWN AND BONNIE ACCELERATING\r\nNORTH NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AND STAYING\r\nOFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS BY 100 MILES.  IN CONTRAST THE NOGAPS\r\nAND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD\r\nGEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA.  MY FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE WHICH\r\nPUTS THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN 72 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS A STRATEGY OF LEAST REGRET...SO THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. COAST CONTINUE TO PLAN FOR THE WORST...EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO MAY BE THAT OF THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nRECON GPS DROPSONDES SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL SUFACE PRESSURE HAS RISEN\r\nSEVERAL MB SINCE YESTERDAY TO 963 MB.  THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND\r\nREPORTED USING GPS SONDS DURING THE LATEST MISSION WAS 94 KNOTS IN\r\nTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SINCE WE WERE PREVIOUSLY USING 100 KNOTS AS\r\nTHE MAX SURFACE WIND...THIS VALUE WILL BE RETAINED FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE FOR 100 KNOTS...NO CHANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nSINCE SSTS ARE QUITE WARM.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 25.2N  72.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N  73.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 27.2N  74.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 28.8N  75.2W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 34.5N  78.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n\r\nLATEST RECON FIX SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT...AGAIN.  WE STILL EXPECT A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO RESUME BUT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL\r\nVERY WEAK IN THE AREA.  LAST NIGHT...THE 00Z GFDL MODEL RUN MADE A\r\nDRASTIC CHANGE...SHIFTING THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE EAST...AND THE\r\n06Z RUN OF THIS MODEL TELLS ABOUT THE SAME STORY.  THE 06Z AVN RUN\r\nOF THE NCEP GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL SHOWS THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE HAS ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN NORTH\r\nCAROLINA TO ALLOW BONNIE TO SLIP THROUGH AND INDEED MANY OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS NOW SHOW RECURVATURE AWAY FROM THE COAST. \r\nHOWEVER THE 00Z NAVY NOGAPS MODEL REFUSES TO RECURVE BONNY...AND\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA BORDER BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  INTERESTINGLY...IT APPEARS THAT ABOUT 80 PER\r\nCENT OF THE DROPWINDSONDES FROM YESTERDAYS MAJOR ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nSAMPLING MISSION ENTERED INTO THAT MODEL SO IT CANNOT BE\r\nDISREGARDED.  ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DROPPING INTO THE NORTH-\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE COULD EXERT SOME INFLUENCE ON\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK OF BONNIE AS WELL.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS NEAR 100 KNOTS.  EVEN THOUGH THE EYE HAS\r\nDISAPPEARED...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED 109 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE\r\n700 MB LEVEL.  IF BONNIE MOVES A BIT MORE...IT WOULD LIKELY\r\nENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS AND THIS COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER\r\nTHERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR....PARTICULARLY IN\r\nTHE AVN MODEL OUTPUT...SO THIS COULD NEGATE STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS THE WINDS AT 100 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nNOTE...THE NHC INTERNET SITE IS DOWN AT THIS TIME.  SOME OF ITS\r\nHURRICANE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY\r\nMANAGEMENT AGENCY AT \r\n\r\nWWW.FEMA.GOV/HLT/TROP.HTML\r\n\r\nPASCH \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 25.6N  72.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 26.4N  73.1W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 28.0N  74.1W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 29.7N  74.8W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 31.5N  75.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 35.5N  76.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nA SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EVIDENT...ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n325/05.  OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS...SHALL I SAY...DIVERGENT.  AT 72\r\nHOURS THERE IS NEARLY A 1200 N MI SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEDIUM\r\nBAM...NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST...AND THE GFDL WHICH RECURVES BONNIE\r\nOUT TO SEA.  THE 12Z AVN SHOWS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE NEARING THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE NEAR\r\nMID-ATLANTIC COAST AND ALLOWING BONNIE TO RECURVE OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nNORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.  HOWEVER THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS COMPLICATE THE FORECAST SINCE THEY DO NOT RECURVE THE\r\nHURRICANE AND TAKE IT NEAR TO..OR ACROSS...THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST.\r\nSINCE THE LATTER TWO MODELS ARE RESPECTABLE ONES...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS STILL NOT COMMITTED TO A RECURVATURE.  WITH SUCH DIVERSE\r\nGUIDANCE...OBVIOUSLY OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE 72 HOUR POINT IS NOT THAT\r\nHIGH.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK COUPLED WITH THE LARGE SIZE OF BONNIE...TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING 200 NM OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...\r\nDICTATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE U.S.\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST.  STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COAST IN 36 HOURS\r\nOR LESS.\r\n \r\nINTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED...NEAR 100 KNOTS.  EVEN THOUGH BONNIE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WESTERLY SHEAR...THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND POWERFUL CIRCULATION SO AS TO BE\r\nRESILIENT TO THE SHEARING.  ALSO...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS PREDICTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nWHEN CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE HOSTILE.\r\n \r\nNOTE...THE NHC INTERNET SITE IS BEING OVERLOADED...FORCING\r\nOCCASIONAL SHUTDOWNS.  SOME OF ITS HURRICANE INFORMATION CAN BE\r\nOBTAINED FROM THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AT\r\n \r\nWWW.FEMA.GOV/HLT/TROP.HTML\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 26.3N  72.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 27.1N  73.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 28.9N  74.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 30.7N  75.3W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 32.5N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 36.5N  76.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nBONNIE LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT LATEST RECON\r\nREPORTED 962 MB WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME AS 18 HOURS AGO.  117 KNOTS\r\nWAS REPORTED FROM ONE OF THE GPS DROPS NEAR THE 900 MB LEVEL IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST EYEWALL.  THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 100\r\nKNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR...BUT WITH BONNIE YET TO\r\nCROSS THE WARM GULF STREAM WE WILL MAINTAIN CAT THREE INTENSITY FOR\r\nMOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nDIVERGENT AND THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT.  THE\r\nNAVY NOGAPS HAS BONNIE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL RECURVES THE HURRICANE AND HAS IT MOVING SOUTH OF NOVA\r\nSCOTIA BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  OUR CURRENT TRACK IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE DEEP LAYER BAM AND THE GFDL THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT IT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nAND RECURVE.  HOWEVER...IF THE PREDICTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nDOES NOT OCCUR...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT BONNIE COULD MOVE TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF OUR OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nNOTE...THE NHC INTERNET SITE IS BEING OVERLOADED...FORCING\r\nOCCASIONAL SHUTDOWNS.  SOME OF ITS HURRICANE INFORMATION CAN BE\r\nOBTAINED FROM THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AT\r\n \r\nWWW.FEMA.GOV/HLT/TROP.HTML\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 27.2N  73.1W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 28.0N  73.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 30.0N  75.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  75.8W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 34.5N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 38.5N  73.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST RECON FIXES SHOW A MOTION OF 330/08 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nCOMPARED TO 325/05 12 HOURS AGO...SO THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO\r\nBE INCREASING. THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS 10 KNOTS.   USING THE\r\nMULTI-AIRCRAFT MISSION DATA AND THE 00Z AVIATION RUN...THE GFDL\r\nMODEL SHOWS ABOUT THE SAME TRACK AS BEFORE...PASSING ABOUT 75 N.MI.\r\nEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IN 36 HOURS AND THEN ACCELERATING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE UKMET SHOWS A LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN N.C. IN ABOUT 60\r\nHOURS AND THE NOGAPS SHOWS A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLESTON IN 48\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFDL AND PUTS THE\r\nCENTER ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE 34 KNOT WIND RADII IS ABOUT 165 N.M. IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\nBASED ON A GPS DROPSONDE.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...GALES WILL REACH\r\nTHE N.C. COAST IN ABOUT 24 TO 30 HOURS FROM 09Z...SO IT IS TIME TO\r\nPUT UP A HURRICANE WARNING.\r\n \r\nIF THE NOGAPS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE\r\nSLOWER AND THERE WILL BE MORE TIME BEFORE WARNINGS ARE NEEDED\r\nFURTHER SOUTH.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 963 MB AND THE 117 KNOT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND STILL STANDS AS THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED DURING THE\r\nLAST RECON MISSION.  LATER PASSES FAILED TO FIND A WIND NEAR THAT\r\nVALUE...BUT SINCE THE PRESSURE REMAINS THE SAME...THE WIND SPEED\r\nWILL BE KEPT AT 100 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 28.1N  74.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 29.4N  74.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 31.6N  75.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 33.8N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 36.5N  75.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 40.0N  70.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-08-25 12:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS FOR THE PURPOSE OF ISSUING A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN\r\nDELAWARE...INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTHWARD FROM SUSSEX\r\nCOUNTY.  REMAINING WATCHES AND WARNINGS AND FORECAST ARE UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE/RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1200Z 28.8N  74.3W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 29.4N  74.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 31.6N  75.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 33.8N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 36.5N  75.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 40.0N  70.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nMODEST CHANGES TO TRACK THIS MORNING CAN BE INTERPRETED IN TWO WAYS.\r\nWHILE BONNIE HAS ACCELERATED FROM 10 KT TO ABOUT 14 KT...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT IT WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE GREAT LAKES STATES...THE HEADING HAS STAYED ABOUT THE SAME OR\r\nEVEN EDGED 5 DEGREES TO THE LEFT...ARGUING FOR A DELAY IN ANY TURN.\r\nALTERNATELY...THESE VARIATIONS COULD BE TEMPORARY. IN ANY\r\nCASE...BONNIE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA AND\r\nALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR A POWERFUL HURRICANE THERE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH\r\nMOST FORECASTS SUPPORTING THE CURRENT NHC TRACK WHICH IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IMPLIES THAT TROPICAL STORM WINDS WILL ARRIVE ON THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR MIDNIGHT AND HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS NEAR DAWN TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INFLUX OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SECTOR HAS LED TO A MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE TO BONNIE ON\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES.  WHILE THERE IS NO EYE APPARENT ON\r\nSATELLITE...OR TO THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE RECON RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 MB.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT...DESPITE\r\nTHE APPEARANCE...BONNIE HAS PROBABLY NOT CHANGED MUCH IN INTENSITY.\r\nINDEED...AN EXPERIMENTAL RUN OF THE GFDL...COUPLED WITH AN OCEAN\r\nMODEL...INDICATES THAT SOME STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 29.5N  75.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.3N  76.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 33.8N  77.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 36.4N  76.3W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 38.3N  74.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 41.5N  66.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-08-25 18:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED TO EXTEND THE HURRICANE WARNING\r\nNORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM\r\nSMITH POINT SOUTHWARD.  NO OTHER CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS...NOR TO THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1800Z 30.0N  75.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.3N  76.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 33.8N  77.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 36.4N  76.3W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 38.3N  74.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 41.5N  66.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD ABOUT 325/330 DEGREES AT 14\r\nKT...SATELLITE PICTURES CLEARLY SHOW SOME POTENTIALLY DECEPTIVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WOBBLING OF THE EYE ALONG THAT TRACK.  SOME EVIDENCE\r\nOF AN EYEWALL IS NOW SEEN IN THE IMAGERY AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nREPORTED AN OPEN...ELLIPTICAL SHAPE EYE BEFORE THEY DEPARTED A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO.  THEY MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS A LITTLE IN EXCESS OF\r\n100 KT TWICE TODAY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nAT 1738Z...THE LAST FIX BEFORE ABOUT 00Z...WAS ONCE AGAIN 963 MB. \r\nBASED ON RECENT SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...THE NEXT MEASURED PRESSURE\r\nCOULD BE LOWER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH MORE CONSISTENCY THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. \r\nALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN\r\nEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA OR PASSING JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS GENERALLY\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION.  WHILE\r\nTHERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORWARD SPEED...THE\r\nCONSENSUS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  OUR TRACK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS IS\r\nOFFSET ABOUT 45 NMI TO THE RIGHT OF 6 HOURS AGO.  ALL DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE EXCEPT NOGAPS IS EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE...TO THE RIGHT.\r\nTHESE MODEST CHANGES ARE BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE\r\nAPPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL TURN BONNIE TO THE NORTH LATER\r\nTONIGHT AND THEN ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAPE ROMAIN TO MURRELLS INLET IS\r\nCHANGED TO A HURRICANE WARNING ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 30.5N  76.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 32.3N  76.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 34.5N  76.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 36.7N  74.9W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 38.8N  71.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.5N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nFORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED JUST A BIT...TO NEAR 12 KNOTS.\r\nOTHERWISE THE TRACK IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND ALL OF OUR\r\nGUIDANCE...ASIDE FROM SHALLOW LAYER STEERING WHICH IS NOT VALID FOR\r\nA HURRICANE...SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH BY MORNING.  SO...VERY LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN FACT...THE\r\nSLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE PRESAGING A CHANGE IN\r\nDIRECTION.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING ABOUT THE\r\nEXPECTED TURN TO THE RIGHT.  IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN ACCELERATING FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nOBVIOUSLY THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN HAS NOT TAKEN\r\nPLACE YET.  HOWEVER...WE EMPHASIZE THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE\r\nPRECISE TRACK...ESPECIALLY SINCE BONNIE HAS SUCH A LARGE ENVELOPE OF\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  EVEN IF THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nCONTINUES LONGER THAN FORECAST...BONNIE WOULD STILL MAKE LANDFALL\r\nWITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.\r\n \r\nINTENSITY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  HURRICANE HUNTERS COULD NOT\r\nFIND AN EYE...YET THEY FOUND WINDS TO 114 KNOTS AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO.  CLOUD TOPS ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ARE NOT VERY COLD AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF\r\nINTENSITY ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THOSE PROVIDED BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT.  THIS UNDERSCORES THE GREAT VALUE OF AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE\r\nIN HURRICANES THAT ARE THREATENING POPULATED COASTAL AREAS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY IS FORECAST UNTIL BONNIE PASSES THE OUTER BANKS.\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST LATER ON AS IT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nCOOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 31.6N  76.8W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 33.4N  77.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 35.9N  76.2W   100 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 38.2N  73.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 41.0N  67.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 47.0N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-08-26 06:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO EXTEND HURRICANE WARNINGS SOUTHWARD\r\nALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO EDISTO BEACH...AS RECON FIXES SHOW\r\nTHE MOTION TO BE SOMEWHAT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0600Z 31.8N  77.3W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 32.8N  78.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 35.2N  78.6W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 37.5N  75.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 41.0N  67.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 47.0N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST RECON FIX GIVES A MOTION OF 320/12 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT\r\nLAST COUPLE OF HOURS MOTION SUGGESTS MORE OF A NORTHWARD DIRECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12.  ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN\r\nIMMEDIATE TURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH CONTINUES A\r\nSLOWER NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND MAKES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS WITH THE FIRST 12 HOUR MOTION AVERAGING 340 DEGREES.\r\nPERHAPS THE EXTENSION OF THE WARNING TO EDISTO BEACH WILL TURN OUT\r\nTO HAVE BEEN UNNECESSARY...BUT THERE IS NO POINT IN AGONIZING ABOUT\r\nIT.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS RAPID ACCELERATION AFTER 24 HOURS\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF\r\nWILMINGTON AT ABOUT 18Z.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 964 MB.  THE WINDS\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED SOME SINCE THE 114 KNOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND AT\r\n01Z...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE MAY BE REFORMING\r\nAND THE WIND SPEED WILL BE KEPT AT 100 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 32.4N  77.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 34.2N  78.1W   100 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 36.0N  76.0W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 38.5N  72.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 40.5N  66.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 46.0N  50.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nBONNIE APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING ABOUT ON SCHEDULE.  RADAR...\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE NOW HINT AT THE EXPECTED\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE INITIAL MOTION...AVERAGED OVER THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS...IS 340 DEGREES WHILE A VERY SHORT-TERM MOTION IS DUE\r\nNORTH.  WE WILL USE 350/10 KT.  THE REDUCED SPEED IS ALSO CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE FIRST STAGES OF A TURN IN THE TRACK.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nAGAIN ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 100 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FEATURES TO THE NNW OF BONNIE APPEAR MORE\r\nPROMINENTLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN 24 HOUR AGO.  THE SOUTHERN\r\nEXTENT OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN YESTERDAY AS\r\nWELL...AND THIS LENDS ADDITIONAL CONFIDENCE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL SOON BE CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDE FLOW AND\r\nEVENTUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE 06Z AVN AND GFDL\r\nRUNS SHOW THAT EVOLUTION...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n \r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM...THE GREATER NORTHWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTS A TRACK\r\nA LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF 6 HOURS AGO.  THE RATHER SLOW MOTION LIKELY\r\nMEANS A PROLONGED...12-18 HOUR...BATTERING BY STRONG WINDS FOR SOME\r\nPORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  IT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM\r\nSURGE WILL PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BE INFLUENCED BY AT LEAST TWO\r\nDIFFERENT HIGH TIDES BEFORE BONNIE LEAVES THE AREA.\r\n \r\nWITH THE CENTER NOW OFFSHORE FROM THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA AND WITH A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OBSERVED...THE WARNINGS AND\r\nWATCHES SOUTH OF CAPE ROMAIN SOUTH CAROLINA ARE DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 33.2N  77.8W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 34.6N  77.7W   100 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 36.2N  76.0W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 38.2N  72.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 40.2N  66.7W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 42.5N  51.6W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nA NEW AND POTENTIALLY SERIOUS FORECAST PROBLEM HAS ARISEN.\r\nAT THE MOMENT...BONNIE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 KT...AND ITS\r\nCENTER IS COMING ASHORE.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF TODAY/S COMPUTER\r\nSIMULATIONS INDICATE THAT THE NEARBY SHORT-WAVE COULD BYPASS THE\r\nHURRICANE...LEAVING IT TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR TWO.  IF\r\nTHIS OCCURS...IT COULD CREATE AN ENORMOUS FLOOD PROBLEM.\r\n \r\nSUPPORTING THIS CONSIDERATION IS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS THE\r\nNEARBY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AXIS NOW APPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF\r\nBONNIE.  THE NE-SW STRETCHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ALSO\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH MIGHT BE EXERTING ITS MAXIMUM INFLUENCE ON\r\nTHE MOTION OF BONNIE AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...AND NOW KEEPS THE CENTER OVER EASTERN NORTH\r\nCAROLINA THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nA NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED 116 KT AT THE 8000 FT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL.  A DROPWINDSONDE RELEASED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BY THE AIR\r\nFORCE MEASURED 110 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL NOT FAR ABOVE THE\r\nSURFACE.  ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE 100 KT.  WEAKENING\r\nWILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nACCOMMODATE THE CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY EXTRAPOLATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n959 MB.  DROPSONDE PRESSURES...NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS FIX...HAVE\r\nBEEN CONSISTENTLY 3 OR 4 MB HIGHER. \r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 34.0N  78.0W   100 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 34.8N  77.7W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 35.6N  77.3W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 36.4N  76.3W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 38.1N  73.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 41.5N  63.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nRADAR...SURFACE DATA...AND RECON INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT...PERHAPS\r\nA SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT...OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN HUGGING THE COASTLINE BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF OUR OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE SLOW MOVEMENT OF BONNIE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ENORMOUS AMOUNTS OF\r\nRAINFALL.  TOTALS UP TO 20 INCHES OR SO ARE SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFDL\r\nRUN.  THIS WOULD CREATE A SERIOUS FLOOD PROBLEM.  \r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND. \r\nMAXIMUM DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM THE WSR-88D ARE BARELY 90\r\nKNOTS AT 4000 TO 5000 FT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 34.2N  77.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 35.0N  77.4W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 36.0N  76.6W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 37.2N  75.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 39.5N  71.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 42.0N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":34,"Date":"1998-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR FORCAST POSITIONS AND INLAND DESIGNATIONS...\r\n \r\nRADAR AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FIXES OVER THE LAST\r\n6 HOURS SUGGEST THAT BONNIE IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE...ALBEIT AT\r\nA SLOW PACE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/04 KNOTS.\r\nLATEST RECON WINDS ARE SHOWING A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n79 KNOTS.  RECENT MARINE AND LAND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO \r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH ONLY TROPICAL STORM REPORTS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS.  FURTHER SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES LAND OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 36-48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER..THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEAST AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS TRACK\r\nIS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 34.7N  77.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 35.3N  77.1W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 36.2N  76.6W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 37.5N  75.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 39.3N  73.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 45.0N  58.5W    55 KTS \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":35,"Date":"1998-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nNWS DOPPLER RADAR DISPLAYS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE\r\nWINDS IN BONNIE HAVE DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CENTER\r\nPASSED NEAR NEW BERN AND CHERRY PT MCAS AROUND 13Z...WITH PRESSURES\r\nDROPPING TO ABOUT 983 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT DOWNGRADING BONNIE TO\r\nA TROPICAL STORM...WITH 55 KT WINDS AND SOME GUSTS STILL TO\r\nHURRICANE FORCE...MAINLY OVER THE WATERS TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035 DEGREES AT 5 KT AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGED.  THIS KEEPS THE POTENTIAL HIGH FOR FLOODING RAINS\r\nOVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT.  SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED...IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT GFDL OUTPUT.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER\r\nEXITING THE COAST AND COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSTATES TO CAUSE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG/NEAR THE COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REVISED TO REFLECT THE NEW AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY. \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 35.2N  76.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 36.1N  76.2W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 37.7N  74.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 39.5N  72.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 41.0N  69.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 45.1N  53.2W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":36,"Date":"1998-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nDOPPLER RADAR DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM OCRACOKE ISLAND AND DIAMOND\r\nSHOALS LIGHTHOUSE INDICATE THAT THE WINDS IN BONNIE HAVE PICKED UP A\r\nBIT AT THE SURFACE AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE BACK OVER\r\nWATER.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED AT 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO\r\nHURRICANE FORCE.  THAT INTENSITY WILL BE HELD IN THE FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT BONNIE\r\nCOULD REGAIN CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n \r\nDOPPLER RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT\r\n8 KT ALONG A HEADING OF 45 DEGREES.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS AN ACCELERATION OFFSHORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE\r\nEAST...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS THE GFDL VERY\r\nCLOSELY.  THE ETA AND UKMET SHOW A TRACK NEAR/OVER THE COAST AND\r\nWITH THAT POSSIBILITY IN MIND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND\r\nWATCHES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE RIGHT...SOUTHEAST...OF THE CENTER\r\nOF BONNIE.\r\n  \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 35.8N  75.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 36.8N  74.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 38.6N  73.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 40.7N  69.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 42.3N  64.1W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 44.0N  48.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":37,"Date":"1998-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A WIND OF 82 KNOTS AT 10000 FEET\r\nWELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  TYPICALLY...THE WINDS AT 850 MB ARE\r\nSOMEWHAT HIGHER AND ARE THEN REDUCED BY FRICTION AT THE SURFACE.\r\nTHEREFORE BONNIE IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY TO THE EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  LITTLE ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE BONNIE IS MOVING OVER MARGINAL\r\nSSTS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY SOME WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nBONNIE HAS MOVED SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A REASONABLE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/07.  ACCELERATION WILL OCCUR LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.  THIS TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE GFDL.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 36.2N  75.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 37.2N  74.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 39.5N  71.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 41.5N  67.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 43.0N  60.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 44.0N  43.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":38,"Date":"1998-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nRECON AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING\r\nMOSTLY EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE LATEST POSITION ESTIMATE\r\nFROM WAKEFIELD RADAR SHOWS SOME MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  ALL\r\nOF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nTHROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MORE EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MOVE THE CENTER NEAR CAPE CODE\r\nIN 30 HOURS AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN JUST OVER 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL DOES ALMOST THE SAME.  THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE\r\nCENTER OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER WITHIN\r\nABOUT 60 NMI OF CAPE COD AND ALMOST AS CLOSE TO NOVA SCOTIA. \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE\r\nBASIS OF THIS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nREPORTS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS FROM CHESAPEAKE LIGHT C-MAN ALONG\r\nWITH 84 KNOTS FLIGHT LEVEL WIND FROM RECON AND 64 KNOTS FROM\r\nWAKEFIELD RADAR ALLOW KEEPING BONNIE A HURRICANE FOR A WHILE LONGER\r\n...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER\r\nLATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 36.5N  74.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 37.8N  73.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 40.2N  71.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 42.0N  66.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 44.0N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 46.0N  45.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":39,"Date":"1998-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nRECON AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST. INITIAL MOTION IS 050/08.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS THE SAME...SHOWING ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MORE EASTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS AND IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MOVE THE CENTER\r\nNEAR CAPE CODE IN 30 HOURS AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN JUST OVER 36\r\nHOURS.  THE AVIATION MODEL DOES ALMOST THE SAME.  THE OTHER MODELS\r\nKEEP THE CENTER OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CENTER\r\nWITHIN ABOUT 70 NMI OF CAPE COD AND ALMOST AS CLOSE TO NOVA SCOTIA.\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THE\r\nBASIS OF THIS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTED A 90 KNOTS FLIGHT LEVEL WIND TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER BUT ONLY A 55 KT SURFACE WIND.  SURFACE\r\nWIND ANALYSIS FROM HRD SHOWS A 70 KNOT SURFACE WIND MAXIMUM AND\r\nSTRONG FLOW FROM THE SOUTH...FROM OVER THE GULFSTREAM...WHICH ALLOWS\r\nADVECTION OF LATENT AND SENSIBLE HEAT INTO THE SYSTEM.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS AND THE WIND OBSERVATION WE ARE KEEPING BONNIE AS A MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE OR 65 KTS...BUT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nOVER COLDER WATER LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 37.1N  74.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 38.2N  72.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 40.0N  70.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 42.0N  66.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 44.4N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 46.0N  40.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":40,"Date":"1998-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nRECON AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING IN FORWARD SPEED. INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n050/11.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS THE SAME...SHOWING\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN\r\nMORE EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS AND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  ALL MODELS\r\nNOW KEEP THE CENTER OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. MAINLAND.  WITH THE STORM\r\nMOVING NORTHEAST AND THE 34 KT WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHWEST QUAD OUT\r\nTO 100 NM... IT WAS AGREED TO LOWER THE TS WARNING SOUTH OF WATCH\r\nHILL.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTED A 68 KNOTS FLIGHT LEVEL WIND TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER BUT ONLY A 45 KT SURFACE WIND.  SURFACE\r\nWIND ANALYSIS FROM HRD SHOWS WINDS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THIS\r\nBASIS BONNIE IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OF 60 KTS. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER\r\nLATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 37.7N  73.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 38.8N  71.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 41.0N  68.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 43.0N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 45.0N  56.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 46.0N  36.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":41,"Date":"1998-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE PICTURES THIS EVENING\r\nHAVE SHOWN A CHANGE IN THE HEADING OF BONNIE TO ENE...AT ABOUT 14\r\nKT.  THIS TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGESTING A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER...IMPLIES THAT THOSE WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE\r\nFROM NEW ENGLAND.  THEREFORE...THE LAST PORTION OF COASTAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM NOW LACKS DEEP CONVECTION.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BONNIE\r\nCOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT TRAVERSES\r\nCOOL WATERS.  IN THE MEANTIME...IT SHOULD BE ACCELERATED GENERALLY\r\nTOWARD ENE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW THIS.  OWING TO THE RECENT\r\nMOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nTRACKS AND...IF CORRECT...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF ATLANTIC\r\nCANADA.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 38.2N  71.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 39.0N  68.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 41.3N  64.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 43.0N  58.9W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 44.1N  51.9W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  36.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":42,"Date":"1998-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER WAS JUST NORTH BUOY 44004 AT 07Z...AS THE WIND THERE WAS\r\n270/25 AND THE PRESSURE WAS 994.3 MB AT 06Z.  THE RECON PRESSURE 6\r\nHOURS EARLIER WAS 993 MB...SO THE CENTER IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE BUOY.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nHAVE THE STORM ACCELERATING NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT IS\r\nPICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\nOTHERWISE THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AND UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS REMAINING ON THE\r\nWEST HALF OF THE STORM.  THE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS\r\nFROM 12 TO 72 HOURS BASED ON THE FAST FORWARD SPEED.  BUT BONNIE\r\nCOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS FORECAST MODEL WHICH CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT\r\n48 HOURS.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY THE AVIATION MODEL WHICH\r\nSHOWS THE 850 MB CIRCULATION BECOMING QUITE DISTORTED BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 39.3N  69.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 41.0N  67.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 43.2N  61.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 44.6N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 44.4N  46.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 42.6N  27.8W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":43,"Date":"1998-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/22.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nHAVE THE STORM ACCELERATING NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT IS\r\nPICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS.  A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE IS\r\nVERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS REMAINING ON THE WEST HALF OF THE STORM...THE\r\nSYSTEM STILL HAS MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THAN EXTRATROPICAL. \r\nTHE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 40.9N  67.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 43.0N  63.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  54.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":44,"Date":"1998-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/24.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nHAVE THE STORM ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT\r\nIS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS.  LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nTAKING ON MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MERGES WITH THE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THE WIND SPEED IS CARRIED AT 45\r\nKNOTS THROUGH 12 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 42.3N  63.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 45.0N  58.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 46.0N  49.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":45,"Date":"1998-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nMAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nCANADIAN BUOY 44137...SABLE ISLAND AND A SHIP REPORT.  THE PRESSURE\r\nIS ALSO ADJUSTED DOWNWARD USING THEIR DATA.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 065/30 KT.  BONNY IS ACCELERATING AHEAD OF THE\r\nIMPULSE SEEN IN WV IMAGERY EXITING MAINE.  TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST.\r\n  \r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...BONNIE RETAINS SOME TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...BUT WE STILL EXPECT TO DECLARE IT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 43.5N  59.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 44.9N  53.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 45.4N  45.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":46,"Date":"1998-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SABLE ISLAND SHOW THAT THE CENTER PASSED\r\nJUST SOUTH OF THAT LOCATION AT 02Z.  A 65 KNOT WIND FROM AN OIL RIG\r\nJUST EAST OF SABLE ISLAND...ANEMOMETER ELEVATION OVER 100\r\nMETERS...INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS STRONG WINDS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER AS WELL AS TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/30.  A MOSTLY EASTWARD MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\nTHERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IT IS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED.  BONNIE IS\r\nQUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 44.8N  54.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 45.0N  48.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 45.0N  39.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  30.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 43.0N  22.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":47,"Date":"1998-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY TROPICAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD IS SPREADING OUT AND\r\nWEAKENING.  BONNIE IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE CONTAINED\r\nIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN\r\nWASHINGTON.\r\n\r\nA MOSTLY EASTWARD...SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST...MOTION IS FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 44.5N  51.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 44.5N  44.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 44.0N  35.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  26.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS CLOSED OFF A WEAK\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WE ARE UPGRADING\r\nTHE DISTURBED AREA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS\r\nWE HAVE NOT BEEN TRACKING A WELL-DEFINED CENTE FOR VERY LONG.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS AND THE CENTER SHOULD REACH THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ONLY ABOUT 20 KNOTS...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS NO KNOWN REASON\r\nTO PREVENT INTENSIFICATION.  TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR\r\nMOST OF THE TEXAS COAST ON THIS BASIS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 25.6N  94.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 26.2N  96.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 27.0N  98.3W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 27.5N 100.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 28.2N 102.8W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 42 KNOT\r\n1500 FT WIND SPEED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nPLANE...AS WELL AS THE OIL RIG REPORTS AND A HURRICANE RESEARCH\r\nDIVISION ANALYSIS WHICH GIVES 37 KNOTS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER.  SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD BANDING ALTHOUGH THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS DURING THE 18 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nCENTER COULD REFORM TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE.  IN ANY CASE...ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nSHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 26.2N  95.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 26.8N  96.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  98.6W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 28.0N 100.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N 103.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z DISSIPATED INLAND \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 48\r\nKNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO EAST QUADRANTS.  THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  A LARGE CONVECTIVE OUTBURST HAS\r\nOCCURRED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH MAY HERALD ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO COME. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS FIXED BY RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WITH A 1006 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nSHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 27.1N  95.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 28.1N  97.7W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.0N 100.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 29.6N 102.6W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL (5 KFT) WIND OF 57 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE NWS CORPUS CHRISTI (KCRP)\r\nWSR-88D HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN 60 AND 65 KNOTS AT 3500 TO\r\n4500 FT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE\r\nIS 1003 MB.  THE ROCKPORT ASOS SITE AT 08Z REPORTED 36 KNOTS\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS WITH A GUST TO 42 KNOTS.  BASED ON THIS DATA...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE ADJUSTED UP TO 50\r\nKNOTS.  LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nAFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE NWS OFFICES ALONG THE COASTS OF LOUISIANA\r\nAND TEXAS...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL REDUCED ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE...AND NOW EXTENDS FROM SABINE PASS TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.  THE\r\nSMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT STATEMENT WILL EXTEND FROM THE MOUTH OF\r\nTHE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SABINE PASS.  FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL\r\nLIKELY ME MADE LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT POSED BY CHARLEY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.\r\nRADAR 3-HOURLY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM KCRP ARE AVERAGING\r\nAROUND 3.5 INCHES BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND VICTORIA TEXAS.\r\nRAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS CHARLEY MOVES\r\nINLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RADAR POSITIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LAST\r\nAIRCRAFT CENTER FIX.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHARLEY ON THE COAST IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF PORT ARANSAS TEXAS WITHIN THE NEXT 4 TO 5 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS THE SYSTEM\r\nTO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH LBAR.\r\nTHIS TRACK REPRESENTS A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHANKS TO KBRO...KCRP...KHOU...KLCH...AND KLIX FOR YOUR INPUT.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 27.8N  96.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 28.6N  98.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 29.1N  99.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 30.0N 103.5W...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Charley","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n \r\nCHARLIE HAS MOVED INLAND.  IT WAS CENTERED JUST NORTH OF CORPUS\r\nCHRISTI AT 12Z AND MOVING 310/12.  A NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION\r\nWITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nSURFACE REPORTS AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLIE\r\nHAS DROPPED BELOW STORM STRENGTH AND IS NOW A DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nPRIMARY THREAT NOW SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN STORM SUMMARIES ISSUED\r\nBY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 28.4N  97.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 29.3N  99.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 29.5N 101.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 29.5N 102.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-08-24 15:30:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1030 AM EST MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME WELL-ENOUGH \r\nORGANIZED TO BEGIN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON IT AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFOUR.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS FAIRLY SMALL BUT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW\r\nA RATHER TIGHTLY WOUND BANDING STRUCTURE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB ARE 2.0 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY...PUTTING THE SYSTEM AT THE\r\nTHRESHOLD OF STORM STRENGTH. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17 KT.  THE 06Z AVN KEEPS A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE TD THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IN FACT\r\nSTRENGTHENS THE HIGH DUE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AT 48 HOURS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE WNW...AS\r\nINDICATED BY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT A RATE BETWEEN SHIFOR...WHICH SHOWS\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS SCHEME WHICH IMPLIES\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WHILE THE OUTFLOW\r\nLOOKS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL AT THIS TIME...THE OUTPUT FROM THE BAM\r\nINDICATE WESTERLY SHEAR AT VERY HIGH LEVELS IN THE FUTURE.  \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1530Z 14.1N  37.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.7N  39.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N  42.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  46.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N  49.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.5N  56.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nA SMALL...AND CURRENTLY WEAKENING...CDO HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH NOW\r\n2.5...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE WHILE FURTHER WEST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN DANIELLE AND BONNIE.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS 285/18 KT.  THE 12Z AVN AGAIN SHOWS A STRONG\r\nANTICYCLONE BUILDING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD\r\nKEEP DANIELLE FROM RECURVING AND...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...COULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TOWARDS THE WEST WITH\r\nACCELERATION.  THROUGH DECREASED SHEAR IT COULD ALSO LEAD TO\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC TRACK AT 48 AND 72 HOURS IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  \r\n\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS SCHEME...DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE\r\nBY 72 HOURS.  SMALL SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE SEEM TO BE ABLE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN...AND WEAKEN...RAPIDLY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 14.4N  38.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.1N  41.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.9N  45.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.8N  48.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N  52.6W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N  60.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5.  VERY LITTLE HAS\r\nCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE FURTHER WEST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN DANIELLE AND\r\nBONNIE.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS WITH GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS 285/18 KTS AND DANIELLE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECASTED TRACK...SO CURRENT FORECASTED TRACK IS RIGHT\r\nALONG PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 14.9N  40.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N  43.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.4N  47.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.2N  50.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N  54.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N  61.8W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n\r\nDANIELLE HAS A SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH \r\nGOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE HAS BEEN A \r\nRATHER PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nDANIELLE OVER THE LAST 4-6 HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nMODEST SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND \r\nIN ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL\r\nSATELLITE STUDIES...IS ASSOCIATE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN DANIELLE AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS\r\nLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF \r\nDAYS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALTHOUGH DANIELLE MAY\r\nEXPERIENCE SOME VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY\r\n48 HOURS DANIELLE IS BROUGHT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO DIMINISH.   \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KNOTS.  THE 00Z AVIATION\r\nMODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE \r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THIS WOULD RESULT\r\nIN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH \r\nPOSSIBLE A MORE WESTWARD HEADING BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL SHOWS\r\nTHIS TYPE OF SCENARIO AND IS THE LEFT-MOST OF THE 06Z TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE \r\nGFDL TRACK AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 15.7N  42.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N  45.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.2N  48.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.9N  52.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.0N  63.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...\r\nKGWC ARE 4.0 AS WELL AS THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS.  DANIELLE IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY. A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO 100 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. MODELS IN GENERAL SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS\r\nTO THE NORTH. THIS IS EMPHASIZED BY GFDL WHICH TURNS THE DANIELLE\r\nWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND LBAR. \r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.  \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 16.5N  44.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.7N  47.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N  51.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N  55.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  59.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N  67.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS A SMALL HURRICANE IN TERMS OF ITS AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION BUT IT HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO\r\nINCREASE AND TAFB ESTIMATED THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 75 KNOTS. DANIELLE\r\nHAS A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE WITH THE SYSTEM.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS ALSO\r\nINDICATED BY SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO\r\nABOUT 107 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/18.  A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PROBABLY\r\nKEEP DANIELLE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR EVEN A LITTLE\r\nMORE TO THE WEST THAN THE PRESENT COURSE AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nENSEMBLE BUT CLOSER TO THE GDFL SOLUTION.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER\r\nOF DANIELLE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE LATEST 12Z GDFL RUN.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING DANIELLE CLOSER THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.  THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THIS\r\nAREA TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 16.9N  46.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  49.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  52.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  56.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N  60.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 22.0N  67.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nT-NUMBERS FOR DANIELLE HAVE REMAINED THE SAME FOR THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...THUS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 75 KNOTS.  DANIELLE\r\nHAS A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND THE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE WITH THE SYSTEM.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/20.  A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN WILL PROBABLY\r\nKEEP DANIELLE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  HOWEVER... THE\r\nUPPER LEVEL COLD LOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE MAY BE GENERATING A\r\nSMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT IN THE TRACK AND MAY BE THE REASON WHY THE\r\nTRACK HAS TENDED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PAST OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GFDL\r\nSOLUTION.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nENSEMBLE AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE GDFL SOLUTION.  ON THIS TRACK THE\r\nCENTER OF DANIELLE WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. \r\nHOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING\r\nDANIELLE CLOSER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THEREFORE...IF A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH IS NECESSARY IT WOULD BE ISSUED SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 17.8N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 18.6N  51.4W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.8N  55.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  59.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.3N  63.6W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 24.9N  71.8W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTER OF\r\nDANIELLE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN -70 DEG C CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE NOW 90 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  \r\nTHIS IS CONFIRMED BY ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES...CIMSS.  THE UPPER LOW SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED \r\nTO SHIFT WEST AS THE ANTICYCLONE OVER DANIELLE BUILDS IN.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THIS IS \r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION SCHEME..SHIPS. \r\n \r\nDANIELLE HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THIS MORNING...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/19 KNOTS.  A STRONG 500 MB\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIELLE ON A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ALL OF THE 06Z\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ON THIS HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH \r\nTHE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN 48 AND\r\n72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL SOLUTION.  \r\n\r\nBASED ON THIS TRACK A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOT NECESSARY FOR THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...\r\nANY SOUTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE TRACK WOULD BRING DANIELLE CLOSER \r\nTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD  \r\nISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 18.6N  50.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.4N  52.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.5N  56.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N  60.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N  63.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 24.5N  70.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF DANIELLE AND THE FAST\r\nFORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS CAUSING SOME SHEARING. THE\r\nEARLIER RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND IS NOT LONGER OCCURRING AT THIS\r\nTIME. THE EYE IS NOT LONGER VISIBLE BUT IS PROBABLY EMBEDDED WITH AN\r\nAREA OF ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90\r\nKNOTS AND IT HAS BEEN HELD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE REASONINGS ARE THAT GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE MOVING THE UPPER-LOW TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF\r\nDANIELLE...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR. IN ADDITION...SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS DANIELLE TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING AT 290/18. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nDEVELOPING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nALTHOUGH GFDL...BAMD AND NOGAPS MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  WE HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE UPPER LOW AHEAD OF\r\nDANIELLE BECAUSE IF THE HURRICANE GETS INVOLVED WITHIN THE FLOW\r\nAROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER-LOW...A MORE WESTWARD COULD\r\nOCCUR. THIS APPEARS NOT TO BE THE CASE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 19.3N  52.1W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N  55.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  58.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N  62.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N  65.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING\r\nTO DISRUPT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE.  DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED TO 75\r\nKNOTS OR LESS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA\r\nTONIGHT AND WILL GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS A SMALL SYSTEM WHICH IN GENERAL IS VERY SENSITIVE TO\r\nSHEAR.  THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW AHEAD OF DANIELLE IS RETROGRADING AS\r\nFORECAST BY MODELS BUT IT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO RESTRICT THE\r\nWESTERN OUTFLOW. WE ARE FORECASTING SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS BUT ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THEREAFTER.  IN FACT...SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL INSISTS ON INTENSIFYING DANIELLE.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/18. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN RESPONSE TO THAT\r\nFEATURE...THE GFDL..BAM-DEEP... NOGAPS AND LBAR MODELS MAINTAIN THE\r\nSAME WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nGOES ALONG WITH THESE MODELS...INDICATING SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 20.1N  53.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  56.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N  59.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  62.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N  65.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 25.5N  72.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A 70-KNOT DANIELLE WHICH\r\nIS VERY ASYMMETRIC IN ITS WIND FIELD WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 37 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUAD...77 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUAD AND 73 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUAD.  THE LARGE ASYMMETRY IS\r\nUNDOUBTABLY DUE TO THE LARGE...18 KNOTS...TRANSLATION SPEED AND THE\r\nLARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHEREFORE THE WIND RADII WILL CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THIS\r\nPACKAGE.  THE LOWEST ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 992MB LOCATED\r\nNEAR THE WIND MINIMUM.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 4.5 OR ABOUT 75 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nWE NOW ESTIMATE THE SURFACE WINDS TO BE 70 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE AND\r\nHOLD THAT INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS...INCREASING THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS AT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nREDUCTION IN FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE LATTER PERIODS.  THIS\r\nIS IN KEEPING WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST.   \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH CONTINUES\r\nTO BE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THAT FEATURE...THE GFDL..BAM-DEEP...NOGAPS AND LBAR\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN THE SAME WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH\r\nTHESE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN MORE WITH THE GFDL AND NOGAPS\r\nAT 72 HOURS.  SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 20.4N  55.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 21.1N  58.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 22.2N  61.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 23.1N  64.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 24.1N  67.6W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 26.6N  73.9W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nRECON FOUND 90 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO. \r\nTHIS COINCIDES WITH 77 AND 90 KNOT WIND ESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE\r\nUSING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...EMBEDDED CENTER WITHIN VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OF TOPS BETWEEN -70 TO -75 DEGREES CELSIUS.\r\nHOWEVER...MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS ONLY 993 MB.  THIS PRESSURE APPEARS\r\nTO BE TOO HIGH FOR SUCH STRONG WINDS BUT PREVIOUSLY...WE HAVE\r\nOBSERVED THAT IN COMPACT HURRICANES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO 80 KNOTS BUT HIGHER GUSTS MAY BE EXPERIENCED IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nPORTION OF THE HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF DANIELLE IS MOVING\r\nWEST AND THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY FIGHTING THE SHEAR. MOST OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE 200 MB WIND FORECASTS RELAX THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO. SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL ALSO BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO\r\nABOUT 100 KNOTS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/17. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSTRONG 500 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THAT TRACK.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nGRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE HIGH\r\nWEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY\r\nTURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 20.8N  57.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N  60.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N  63.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N  66.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 25.0N  69.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 28.0N  73.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON FOUND 97 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO.  SATELLITE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AROUND 90 KTS. \r\nHOWEVER...MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB.  AGAIN THIS PRESSURE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH FOR SUCH STRONG WINDS BUT PREVIOUSLY...WE\r\nHAVE OBSERVED THIS IN COMPACT HURRICANES. THE STORM APPEARS TO BE\r\nADJUSTING ITS STRUCTURE BECAUSE OF THE CHANGING UPPER LEVEL SHEAR\r\nPATTERN.  INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LOW\r\nAHEAD OF DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST AND THE HURRICANE IS\r\nCURRENTLY FIGHTING THE SHEAR. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE 200 MB WIND\r\nFORECASTS RELAX THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL ALSO BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO ABOUT 105 KNOTS IN 72\r\nHOURS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/16. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSTRONG 500 MB HIGH CENTERED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THAT TRACK.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nGRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE HIGH\r\nWEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODELS AND GRADUALLY\r\nTURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 21.4N  59.3W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 22.2N  61.8W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.4N  65.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 24.8N  68.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.4N  70.4W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 30.0N  74.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HIGHEST WIND FOUND BY RECON THUSFAR TODAY REMAINS AT 97 KNOTS\r\nOVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  ALL LATER RECON ESTIMATES IN OTHER\r\nQUADRANTS HAVE BEEN LOWER...RANGING FROM 40 TO 60 KNOTS.  SATELLITE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 75 TO 90 KTS.  THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 80 KNOTS WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION\r\nFORECAST AS UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE. \r\nTHIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS A SERIOUS MISMATCH BETWEEN ESTIMATED SURFACE PRESSURE AND\r\nESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED.  RECONN REPORTS CONSIDERABLE TILT\r\nBETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER AND LOWER LEVEL CENTER SO THE\r\nDROPSONDE IS PROBABLY MISSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  IF THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING REDUCES...A MORE INTENSE\r\nAND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM COULD RESULT. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/15.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSTRONG ANTICYCLONE...LOCATED JUST EAST OF BERMUDA.  MODELS REMAIN IN\r\nTIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THAT TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH...FOLLOWING THE TROUGH LEFT BY THE WAKE OF BONNIE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND LBAR\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 22.1N  60.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.8N  63.1W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 25.2N  68.7W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 26.7N  71.2W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  74.2W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OR TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nPARTIALLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF BONNIE.  AS BONNIE SLOWLY EXITS THE\r\nSCENE...SOME RIDGING WILL PROBABLY BUILD BACK IN OVER THAT AREA. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 18Z NCEP AVN MODEL RUN\r\nSHOWS A RATHER LARGE 500 MB TROUGH CARVING OUT OVER THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nWHICH SHOULD CREATE A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF STEERING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL AND BAM GUIDANCE AS WELL.\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND A 992 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A TIGHT WIND\r\nCENTER THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nMASS.  DANIELLE IS A SMALL HURRICANE IN SIZE.  SHIP REPORTS INDICATE\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE NO MORE THAN 100 N MI.  \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DANIELLE\r\nHAS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR MAPS SHOW REASONABLY\r\nWEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL\r\nOUTPUT ALSO SHOWS LIGHT SHEAR.  STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  DANIELLE\r\nCOULD BECOME A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nPASCH \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 22.6N  62.4W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 23.3N  64.7W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 24.4N  67.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 26.0N  70.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 28.0N  72.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 32.0N  74.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nDANIELLE STILL DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nBUT THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS CONTINUE TO REPORT A VERY TIGHT\r\nCENTER...WITH 87 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH\r\nOF HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIELLE AND\r\nAPPEARS TO BE PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  OUR INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15.  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF\r\nA RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AFTER HURRICANE BONNIE MOVES OUT.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING THAT A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO.\r\nHOWEVER...MANY OF THESE GUIDANCE MODELS USE THE AVIATION MODEL FOR\r\nTHE BACKGROUND FIELD AND THE AVIATION MODEL SEEMS CONTAMINATED BY A\r\nBOGUS VORTEX NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF\r\nTHIS NORTHWARD MOTION.  OUR CURRENT FORECAST TRACK STILL SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE UKMET MODEL IS TO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK\r\nAND THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL IS TO THE LEFT OF OUR TRACK.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 22.9N  63.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N  66.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 24.7N  68.8W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N  71.1W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 27.5N  73.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 32.0N  74.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS A SMALL AND TIGHT HURRICANE.  LATEST RECON  FOUND A 20 N\r\nMI DIAMETER EYE WITH EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON RADAR. AND MEASURED\r\n79 KNOT-WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 9 N MI FROM THE EYE.  MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE WAS 988 MB. THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS IS\r\nMOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF DANIELLE AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE GFDL COUPLED\r\nMODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS BY 48\r\nHOURS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN...TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN REMARKABLY \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT... CONSISTENTLY TURN DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nNORTHWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL\r\nENSEMBLE TURNING DANIELLE NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. IN THIS CASE THE HURRICANE WILL STAY AWAY FROM THE U.S.\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST.  THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET WILL SAMPLE THE\r\nENVIRONMENT NORTH OF DANIELLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND\r\nWILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 23.2N  65.2W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 23.8N  67.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 24.5N  69.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 26.0N  71.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 27.5N  73.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 31.5N  74.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN OBSERVING DANIELLE DURING THE MORNING\r\nAND MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 88 KNOTS ABOUT 12 NM FROM\r\nTHE EYE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED SO FAR IS 986 MB AND\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 90 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THIRTY-\r\nDEGREE CELSIUS WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX. THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS NO WESTERLIES AHEAD AT ALL AND IN FACT...ONE CAN\r\nOBSERVE THE HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE HURRICANE. WE DO\r\nNOT SEE THAT VERY OFTEN IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHERE WESTERLIES ARE\r\nMORE THAN OFTEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nLOOKS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AND THE GFDL COUPLED MODELS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BRINGS DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/13.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN...TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN REMARKABLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT... CONSISTENTLY TURN DANIELLE NORTHWARD AND NORTH\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE EXCELLENT\r\nMODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.    \r\n\r\nTHE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF\r\nDANIELLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 23.7N  66.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 24.2N  68.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 25.2N  70.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 26.5N  73.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 28.0N  74.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 32.5N  74.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONN OBSERVED DANIELLE DURING THE DAY AND MEASURED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 88 KNOTS ABOUT 12 NM FROM THE EYE.  THIS\r\nEVENING THE HIGHEST RECONN WIND SPEED AT FLIGHT LEVEL WAS 67 KNOTS\r\nOVER THE NORTHWEST QUAD WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 77 AND 90 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHEREFORE DANIELLE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KNOTS.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THIRTY DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.  THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AND THE GFDL COUPLED MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BRINGS DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...A LITTLE SLOWER AND MORE\r\nNORTHERLY THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN...ALL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nAND CONSISTENTLY TURN DANIELLE NORTHWARD AND NORTH\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE EXCELLENT\r\nMODEL AGREEMENT IN TRACK INCREASES THE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nHPC RAISED A POINT DURING THE CONFERENCE CALL ON THE 18Z AVIATION\r\nRUN OF THE MRF MODEL.  THIS RUN AND THE GUIDANCE DEPENDENT ON IT\r\nTEND TO SLOW THE HURRICANE DURING THE LAST PERIOD.  THE INTERESTING\r\nTHING ABOUT THIS 18Z RUN IS THE SPURIOUS VORTEX BEING GENERATED EAST\r\nOF DANIELLE WHICH APPEARS TO BE DISRUPTING THE RIDGE AND THEREFORE\r\nSLOWING THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF DANIELLE.  THE OOZ RUN OF THE MRF\r\nMODEL WILL CONTAIN THE JET DROPWINSONDE AND MAY HELP TO RESOLVE THIS\r\nQUESTION.  NO OTHER GLOBAL MODEL SUGGEST THIS SLOWING OF DANIELLE.\r\n \r\nSORRY...THIS GOT TOO LONG.\r\n\r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 24.1N  67.3W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 24.7N  69.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 25.8N  71.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 27.4N  72.8W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 29.4N  73.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 33.7N  72.1W   100 KTS\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONN MISSION WHICH COVERED THE 00Z AND 06Z FIXES\r\nREPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE MID SEVENTIES OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nQUADRANTS.  CENTRAL PRESSURES RANGED FROM 989 TO 991 MB.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 77 AND 90 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHEREFORE DANIELLE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KNOTS.  THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST TO RELAX AND EVEN NOW THE\r\nENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT IT HAS YET TO\r\nMATERIALIZE.  IN KEEPING WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST INTENSITY MODEL...\r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 80 KNOTS THROUGH 12 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN INCREASE AT A MODEST RATE.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12...A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY BECAUSE OF A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.  THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN 48 HOURS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC WHILE A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THAT SAME TIME FRAME.  IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHAT PATTERN...ALL TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nCONSISTENTLY TURN DANIELLE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE QUESTION OF DANIELLE SLOWING DOWN AFTER THE 36 HOUR FORECAST\r\nPERIOD REMAINS WITH THE 00Z AVIATION RUN.  NOGAPS AND THE UKMET\r\nMODELS FOR 00Z DO NOT SLOW DANIELLE AND INDEED ACCELERATE IT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AFTER THE TURN AT 48 HOURS.  SINCE THE AVIATION RUN\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH,\r\nIT IS THOUGHT THAT THE SPURIOUS VORTEX TO THE EAST MUST BE\r\nDISRUPTING THE RIDGE.\r\n \r\nANALYSIS OF THE JET DROPS SHOW A GOOD RIDGE THROUGH 400 MB NORTH OF\r\nDANIELLE.  THE DROPS DO NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PREVENT THE\r\nSPURIOUS VORTEX FROM GENERATING.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 24.6N  68.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 25.4N  70.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 26.6N  72.3W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 28.3N  73.6W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 31.0N  73.7W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 34.0N  71.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RECON INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY.  THE PLANE REPORTED A CLOSED EYE WALL\r\nOF 10 NMI DIAMETER AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO REPORTS OF WINDS HIGHER THAN 60 TO 70 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE HURRICANE LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A\r\nCIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TWO OUTFLOW CHANNELS. WE ARE\r\nKEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 80 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  IN SPITE OF\r\nSUCH A GOOD ENVIRONMENT...DANIELLE HAS FAILED TO INTENSIFY AS\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGES\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD STRENGTHEN.  SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL INSISTS ON BRINGING DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/12.  THE KEY PLAYER IS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nWHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY DANIELLE NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TRACK\r\nMODELS CAPTURED THIS FEATURE AND ALL OF THEM...CONSISTENTLY TURN\r\nDANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND AWAY FROM THE U.S.\r\nCOAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 25.1N  70.1W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 25.9N  72.3W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 27.0N  74.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 29.0N  75.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 30.5N  74.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 34.5N  68.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n\r\nRECON FOUND THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IS BETTER THAN\r\nYESTERDAY...WITH A WELL DEFINED 10 N MI DIAMETER CLOSED EYE-WALL BUT\r\nTHE HIGHEST SAMPLED WINDS WERE ONLY 65 TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND SATELLITE WIND\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 77 KNOTS. BASED ON RECON REPORTS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. \r\nKEEPING IN MIND THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY...I DO NOT SEE ANYTHING THAT COULD STOP THE HURRICANE FROM\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO 100 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/12.  DANIELLE HAS NOT TURNED YET BUT THAT IS\r\nNOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY.  THE KEY PLAYER IS THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY DANIELLE NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TRACK\r\nMODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH\r\nAND AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 25.8N  71.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 26.7N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 28.0N  75.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 29.5N  75.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 31.5N  75.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 34.5N  69.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD 300 DEGREES BUT ITS FORWARD SPEED\r\nHAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 9 KT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE HURRICANE\r\nREACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS\r\nINITIALIZED IN THE 18Z AVN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING FARTHER WEST ALONG 30N.  IT IS THIS FEATURE THAT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nAPPROACHES THE EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE LOOKS MUCH LIKE 6 HOURS AGO...BUT THIS IS NO SURPRISE\r\nAS BOTH SETS WERE BASED PRIMARILY ON DATA FROM 12Z.  IF THERE IS TO\r\nBE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IT WOULD LIKELY OCCUR IN THE NEXT ADVISORY\r\nWHICH CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS THAT WILL HAVE\r\nDATA OBTAINED FROM A LARGE NUMBER OF SOUNDINGS DEPLOYED THIS EVENING\r\nBY NOAA G-IV AND P-3 AIRCRAFT IN DANIELLE AND ITS VICINITY.  FOR\r\nNOW...THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY 48 HOURS.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE.  NO AVAILABLE MODEL TRACK\r\nCROSSES 75W.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION...HRD...HAS TRANSMITTED TO THE\r\nNHC FOR THE FIRST TIME AN ANALYSIS OF DOPPLER RADAR WINDS OBTAINED\r\nONBOARD THE NOAA P-3S.  IT SHOWS A BAND OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN\r\nTHE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 3000 FT.  WHILE THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 5000 FT NO HIGHER\r\nTHAN 67 KT...A NOAA DROPSONDE RELEASED INTO THE EYEWALL HAD WINDS AS\r\nSTRONG AS 77 KT AT THE ALTITUDE CORRESPONDING TO 963 MB...AND 57 KT\r\nAT THE SURFACE.  OUR ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW 65 KT.\r\n \r\nALSO WITH HRDS ASSISTANCE...IT APPEARS THAT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nDANIELLE WILL BE MOVING OVER SEVERAL PATCHES OF WATERS PREVIOUSLY\r\nCOOLED BY BONNIE/S PASSAGE.  THIS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 26.1N  71.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 26.9N  73.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 28.1N  74.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 29.6N  74.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 31.3N  74.2W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 34.0N  69.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/09.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES RECURVES THE HURRICANE. \r\nTHIS IS BASED ON LOTS OF DATA OVER THE OCEAN FROM AN INTENSIVE MULTI\r\nAIRCRAFT MISSION LAST NIGHT.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL LEFT OF\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE HIGHEST RECON WIND FROM THE MOST RECENT FLIGHT WAS 69 KNOTS AT\r\n850 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE RECON REPORTED THAT THE\r\nEYEWALL HAD FALLEN APART AT 03Z BUT WAS AGAIN IDENTIFIABLE AT 05Z\r\nWITH A 20 NMI DIAMETER.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT\r\n65 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THE SSTS WERE COOLED SOME\r\nBY BONNIES PASSAGE.  THE SSTS ARE STILL ABOVE 86C AND THERE IS\r\nLITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 26.7N  72.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 27.5N  73.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 28.5N  74.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 29.8N  74.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 31.5N  73.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 34.5N  67.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998\r\n\r\nMOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE MORE AND NOW APPEARS TO BE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...305/8.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...IS EXPECTED.  A BROAD MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE\r\nTO RECURVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT...BUT THE SYSTEM IS WELL-\r\nORGANIZED AND AN EYE IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE PICTURES.  LATEST RECON\r\nPRESSURE IS 988 MB...ABOUT THE SAME AS 12 HOURS AGO. DANIELLE IS NOW\r\nMOVING OVER THE PATH OF BONNIE...AND THE PASSAGE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nHURRICANE HAS LIKELY COOLED THE SST IN THE AREA.  THIS MAY BE\r\nPREVENTING ANY STRENGTHENING AT THE MOMENT.  EVEN SO...DANIELLES\r\nLACK OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOT READILY\r\nEXPLAINED.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM BONNIES\r\nWAKE AND OTHER FACTORS SEEM FAVORABLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 27.1N  73.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 28.0N  74.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 29.1N  74.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  73.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  72.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 35.5N  66.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998\r\n\r\nMOTION IS BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW 310/09.  A BROAD\r\n500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. HAS...FORTUNATELY...ERODED THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD. \r\nDANIELLE SHOULD SOON MAKE CONTACT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING WINDS\r\nAND BEGIN TO VEER AWAY FROM THE COAST.  THIS IS SHOWN BY ALL\r\nAVAILABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS.  DATA FROM THE MOST\r\nRECENT VORTEX PENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED\r\n68-KNOT WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK DANIELLE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER\r\nOCEAN WATERS LESS INFLUENCED BY THE COLD WAKE OF BONNIE...AND\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE.  \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 27.9N  74.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 29.2N  74.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 30.8N  73.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 32.5N  72.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 34.5N  69.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST VORTEX DATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT SHOWED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 70-KNOTS IN THE \r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT...A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB...AND\r\nA 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE.  THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE IS GOING\r\nTHROUGH AN INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  NOAA P-3\r\nON-BOARD DOPPLER RADAR IMAGES AND WIND/PRESSURE PLOTS SUPPLIED BY\r\nTHE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION...HRD...INDICATE THAT THE DANIELLE\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A TIGHTER\r\nMORE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...BOTH DOPPLER RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS ASYMMETRIC WITH \r\nTHE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n   \r\nTHE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT GPS-DROPSONDE REPORTED A SST OF 26 DEG C\r\nSOUTH OF THE EYE.  SST ANALYSES THROUGH 22 AUG SUGGEST THAT THIS\r\nREPRESENTS ABOUT A 4 DEG C COOLING ATTRIBUTABLE TO BONNIE.  SOME\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AS DANIELLE MOVES AWAY FROM THE BONNIE/S COOL WAKE AND\r\nINTO WARMER WATERS.  \r\n \r\nPOSITION FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE GRADUAL RIGHT-HAND TURN IS UNDER WAY. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/05 KNOTS.  THE NOAA G-IV \r\nJET AIRCRAFT PERFORMED A SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION THIS AFTERNOON TO\r\nSAMPLE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF DANIELLE.  THIS DATA\r\nINDICATES THAT THE BROAD 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nCONTINUES TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD PERMIT DANIELLE\r\nTO TAKE A NORTH...THEN NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THIS SCENARIO\r\n...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WITH A MARKED ACCELERATION\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FAR ENOUGH WEST OF BERMUDA TO\r\nPRECLUDE ANY WATCH ISSUANCES AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 28.2N  74.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 29.3N  74.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 30.9N  73.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  72.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 34.5N  69.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 39.0N  62.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 31 1998\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WAS 335/05 AND OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS APPEARS TO BE EVEN MORE NORTHWARD.  THE MOTION CONTINUES TO\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOW THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN\r\nBASED ON AN EXTENSIVE SET OF OBSERVATIONS FROM A MULTIPLE-AIRCRAFT\r\nMISSION OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND CONTINUES TO SHOW THE\r\nSAME RECURVATURE SCENARIO AS BEFORE.  SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS A FORWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR 24 HOURS\r\nAND ACCELERATING TO 30 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRECON REPORTED A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE OF 980 MB AND A MAX 700-\r\nMB WIND OF 74 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A 20 NMI\r\nDIAMETER EYE...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS.  THE\r\nFORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 28.8N  74.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 30.0N  74.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 31.3N  73.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 32.6N  71.8W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 35.0N  68.2W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 41.5N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 31 1998\r\n\r\nDANIELLE HAS A FAIRLY CLASSICAL PRESENTATION ON THIS MORNINGS\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED A CLOSED\r\nWALL AND A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN\r\nTO 976 MB AND MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85\r\nKNOTS...MAKING DANIELLE A CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON\r\nHURRICANE SCALE.   OUTFLOW IS GOOD EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE A\r\nREMNANT UPPER LOW NEAR FLORIDA IS INTERFERING A BIT.   THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD BE MOVING OVER FAIRLY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO...SO SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NORTH...010/08.  SO FAR...DANIELLE HAS BEEN WELL-\r\nBEHAVED AND THE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL LIKELY BE MAKING CONTACT WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nWINDS IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL TRACKS PRETTY MUCH\r\nAGREE ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BUT DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE(S).\r\n\r\nPASCH  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 29.6N  73.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N  73.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  72.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 34.5N  69.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 36.5N  65.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 42.0N  55.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD...THE HURRICANE CONTINUES\r\nTO LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND RECON STILL REPORTS A\r\nCLOSED WALL...A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975\r\nMB.  CURRENT MAXIMUM WIND SPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS.  \r\nDANIELLE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO...SO THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nALSO SHOWS A LITTLE INCREASE IN WINDS.   \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...025/09.  THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS IS A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCELERATION...AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THIS IS QUALITATIVELY\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED STEERING FLOW.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS PRACTICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...AND TAKES THE HURRICANE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  OBVIOUSLY...INTERESTS IN THE ABOVEMENTIONED LOCALES\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS OR UNTIL DANIELLE HAS PASSED THEIR AREA.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 30.5N  73.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 31.7N  72.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 33.7N  70.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 35.7N  66.4W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 38.0N  62.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 43.0N  52.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY COLD\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KNOTS.  THE\r\nUSUAL DILEMMA IS FACED CONCERNING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED JUST\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE...AS TO WHETHER IT WILL ENHANCE THE\r\nOUTFLOW RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING...OR INCREASE THE SHEAR RESULTING\r\nIN WEAKENING.  OUR INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nSUGGESTS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WHILE DANIELLE IS OVER WARM\r\nWATER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/10.   THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.  CURRENT TRACK\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS MIDWAY BETWEEN THE\r\nNAVY NOGAPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 31.5N  73.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.8N  71.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 34.7N  68.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 37.0N  64.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 39.5N  59.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 44.5N  48.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/10.  ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LAST SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE MOTION MAY BE A LITTLE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO RECON SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS...OR LOWER...THAN SIX HOURS AGO...SO THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR NO\r\nCHANGE THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLD\r\nSSTS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 32.2N  72.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 33.2N  71.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 35.3N  68.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 38.0N  63.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 41.0N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 46.0N  45.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A\r\nGREATER EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THIS MORNING...TOWARD ABOUT\r\n065/9 KT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE 06Z AVN STILL SHOWS THE\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH AND WESTERLIES SWEEPING DANIELLE GENERALLY TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.   GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND EXPANDED WIND RADII TO\r\nTHE SE...HOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD OCCUR DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AT BERMUDA AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nSHOWS ACCELERATION IN LINE WITH THE NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS.  THE AVN\r\nOUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME ELONGATED BY 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...INDICATIVE OF DANIELLE STARTING TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 968\r\nMB..BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT INCREASING THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 32.3N  71.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 33.2N  69.6W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 35.3N  65.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 38.8N  60.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 41.3N  54.9W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 45.5N  42.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":34,"Date":"1998-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nDANIELLE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF RETURNING TO A NE TRACK. \r\nTHE HEADING IS NOW 060 DEGREES...AT ABOUT 11 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATED...PRIMARILY AFTER 36 HOURS BY THE\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE U.S. NORTH CENTRAL STATES.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK LIES NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE PACK.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND 965 MB AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 94 KT\r\nBEFORE DEPARTING THE HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED\r\nAGAIN AT 85 KT AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST.\r\nTHE OUTER EDGE OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 33.1N  70.3W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 34.2N  68.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 37.2N  63.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 40.9N  58.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 43.7N  52.6W    70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 45.5N  38.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":35,"Date":"1998-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT DANIELLE HAS BEGUN\r\nTO ACCELERATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW 060/14 KNOTS.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH A\r\nGRADUAL ACCELERATION.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE THE TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nTHE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS.  THE CONVECTION\r\nIS WEAKENING OVER THE CENTER AND NO EYE FEATURE IS APPARENT. THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BECOMING\r\nEXTRA-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 33.8N  68.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 34.9N  66.3W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 36.8N  62.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 39.1N  59.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 41.5N  53.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 44.0N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":37,"Date":"1998-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT DANIELLE\r\nCONTINUES TO ACCELERATE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nNOW 055/22 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT DANIELLE HAS\r\nWEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS...BUT STILL HAS SOME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO\r\n70 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER 26C OR WARMER WATER FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE RAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS VALUES OCCUR. \r\nSLOW BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES\r\nNORTHEAST THEN EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBERMUDA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH THE\r\n11Z OBSERVATION OF 34 KNOTS WITH A GUST TO 47 KNOTS.\r\nTHE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 220 NMI TO\r\nREPRESENT THE DISTANCE OF BERMUDA FROM THE CENTER.  THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY/\r\nTONIGHT.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE\r\nDANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARDS THE EAST THEREAFTER.  ALL OF THE 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nARE CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION WITH VARIATIONS IN SPEED...MOST\r\nNOTABLE BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...THEN A TURN BACK TO THE EAST BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 36.7N  64.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 39.3N  60.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 42.8N  55.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 45.0N  48.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 46.0N  40.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 47.0N  24.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":38,"Date":"1998-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT DANIELLE\r\nCONTINUES TO ACCELERATE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nNOW 045/26 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT DANIELLE HAS\r\nMAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...IN FACT...AN EYE\r\nWAS VISIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 70 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER 26C OR\r\nWARMER WATER FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS RAPIDLY\r\nDECREASING SSTS VALUES. SLOW BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHEAST THEN EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS BEFORE...THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST THEREAFTER.  ALL OF THE\r\n18Z TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CLUSTERED NEAR THIS SOLUTION WITH\r\nVARIATIONS IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 38.8N  62.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 41.7N  58.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 44.5N  54.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 46.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 47.0N  36.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 47.0N  20.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":39,"Date":"1998-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE POSITION FIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT\r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/30 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE STILL HAS SOME\r\nSEMBLANCE OF AN EYE FEATURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE \r\nREDUCED TO 65 KNOTS...AND HELD THROUGH 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL ENTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST/S AND GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DANIELLE HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN\r\nATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST BY\r\n36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS TERMINATED BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 41.0N  58.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 44.2N  53.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 46.5N  43.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 46.5N  34.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":40,"Date":"1998-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 03 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE IS RETAINING SOME\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES.  \r\nTHE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE CALLED IN A REPORT FROM ONE OF THEIR\r\nOFFSHORE BUOYS...44141 LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 56.2W...WHICH RECORDED\r\nA 66 KNOT WIND...A 976 MB PRESSURE AND 21 FOOT SEAS AT 07Z.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS WILL BE MAINTAINED AND HELD FOR 12\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM WILL ENTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nSST/S AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DANIELLE HEADS EASTWARD\r\nINTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-\r\nTROPICAL BY 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER...MPC...\r\nIN WASHINGTON D.C. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nOUTWARD AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. \r\n \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nU.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AND A SLIGHT\r\nDECELERATION BEYOND 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THE\r\nFORECAST IS TERMINATED BY 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRA-\r\nTROPICAL.\r\n\r\nWE APPRECIATE THE COORDINATION CALL FROM THE CANADIAN WEATHER\r\nSERVICE REGARDING THE BUOY DATA AND FORECAST TRACK...AND TO MPC \r\nFOR COORDINATION OF THE WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 42.8N  55.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 44.9N  50.9W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 45.7N  43.8W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 46.2N  36.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 46.5N  30.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":41,"Date":"1998-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 03 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE IS RETAINING SOME\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES.\r\nTHE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE OFFSHORE BUOY...44141...LOCATED NEAR\r\n42.1N 56.2W...RECORDED A 54 KNOT WIND...A 962 MB PRESSURE AND 52\r\nFOOT SEAS AT 09Z.  SOME BAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING MAY BE OCCURRING AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO EXTRATROPICAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 65 KNOTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DANIELLE\r\nHEADS EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 12-24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nU.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE EAST AND A SLIGHT\r\nDECELERATION BEYOND 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWE APPRECIATE THE COORDINATION CALL FROM THE CANADIAN WEATHER\r\nSERVICE REGARDING THE BUOY DATA AND FORECAST TRACK...AND TO MPC\r\nFOR COORDINATION OF THE WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 43.7N  53.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 45.0N  48.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 45.6N  41.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":42,"Date":"1998-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 03 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE IS BECOMING AN\r\nINTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS DANIELLE PASSED SOUTH OF THE\r\nCANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE OFFSHORE BUOY...44138...LOCATED NEAR\r\n44.3N 53.7W...A 45 KNOT WIND...A 972 MB PRESSURE AND 39\r\nFOOT SEAS WERE RECORDED BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z.  SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nBAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING\r\nEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE EAST.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NHC ON DANIELLE.  FUTURE INFORMATION\r\nON THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nBEING ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 45.0N  50.0W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 45.7N  45.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 46.1N  36.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     05.0600Z 47.0N  28.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATED THE LARGE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FOUND A 1002 MB LOW\r\nPRESSURE CENTER WITH PEAK WINDS TO 43 KNOTS AT THE 1500 FT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED IMMEDIATELY TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS IN FACT THE SAME SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN\r\nTRACKED ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST WEEK. \r\nAT THIS TIME... THE STORM IS BROAD AND DISORGANIZED AND IS STILL IN\r\nTHE FORMATIVE STAGES.  THE OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nWEST BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND\r\nEARL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE.  STRENGTHENING IS ALSO CALLED FOR BY\r\nTHE NUMERICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF GOOD CENTER FIXES.  OUR\r\nBEST ESTIMATE IS 350/4.  TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE STORM BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS REASONING. HOWEVER...THE\r\nNOGAPS AND UK MET OFFICE MODEL SUGGEST A MUCH SLOWER MOTION.\r\n\r\nIF THE ACCELERATING SCENARIO MATERIALIZES...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY LATER TONIGHT.  \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 22.5N  93.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  94.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N  93.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 26.5N  92.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 28.5N  90.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 31.0N  86.0W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 31 1998\r\n \r\nTHE MOST RECENT DATA RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EARL IS STILL IN ITS\r\nFORMATIVE STAGES.  THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND AND\r\nARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  ON THIS BASIS\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  EARL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO RESUME A SLOW NORTHERLY MOTION TUESDAY. \r\n \r\nTHE LATEST VORTEX MESSAGE FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT SHOWS THAT THE\r\nPRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AT 1002 MB WITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF\r\n35 KNOTS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35\r\nKNOTS.  THE SYSTEM HAS A RATHER LARGE STORM ENVELOPE AS SEEN IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY IS RETAINED WHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A NORTH-NORTHEAST THEN NORTHEAST HEADING\r\n..ALONG WITH AN INCREASE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 24 HOURS...IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI\r\nVALLEY REGION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ADVERTISE THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  IF FACT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN VERY CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nNAVY NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH BY-PASSING\r\nEARL...LEAVING THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATES...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL\r\nLIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME TUESDAY.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 22.3N  93.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.9N  93.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 24.5N  93.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  92.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 28.5N  90.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 31.5N  85.0W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nIT IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER ON INFRARED AND THE LAST\r\nRECON WAS AT 00Z.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE MOTION IS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY.   THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN LAST ADVISORY AND\r\nSUGGESTS A SHIFT TO THE LEFT.  THE GFDL HAS THE CENTER NEAR THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST IN 72 HOURS...THE UKMET IS SLOWER...AND THE NOGAPS\r\nIS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SLOWER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA BURSTING CDO PATTERN OVERNIGHT IS DYING OUT.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS LEFT AT 35 KNOTS...ASSUMING THE CENTER IS NORTH OF THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION...AS BEFORE.   THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS EARL TO 60\r\nKNOTS AT 73 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL GOES TO 100 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BRINGING EARL TO 65 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SLOWER FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THAT A WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF COAST MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR A WHILE.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 22.5N  93.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.0N  93.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N  93.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N  93.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N  92.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 29.0N  90.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nEARL IS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND\r\nAN ELONGATED CENTER  OF 999 MB AND THE WIND FIELD IS STILL VERY\r\nASYMMETRIC. MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE WITHIN A BAND TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 61 KNOTS WERE\r\nRECENTLY REPORTED. THERE IS SOME SHEARING OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE AND INDEED SOME UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nBEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM . SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL INTENSIFY EARL AND THE GFDL SUGGESTS AN\r\nEXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION.   THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nEARL HAS MOVED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR MORE LIKELY IT HAS REFORMED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS MEANS\r\nTHE WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. DUE\r\nTO THE ONGOING REFORMATION...BOTH INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE\r\nUNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND ADJUSTMENTS MAYBE NECESSARY.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BEGINNING\r\nTO CHANGE AND THE GFDL...MRF...AND UK ARE TENDING TO THE WEST OF\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BUILDING OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nWE EMPHASIZE THAT ALL INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 25.4N  92.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 25.7N  92.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  92.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 27.3N  92.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 28.3N  92.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 29.5N  92.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n\r\nRECON FIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS\r\nREFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  THIS MAKES THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n020/10.  THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS OR LESS AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS EARL TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN 24 HOURS...HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE\r\nBEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. \r\n\r\nSOME TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE...PRIMARILY THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH IS MOVING EARL ON A MORE NORTH AND NORTH NORTHEASTERLY\r\nTRACK AND HAS THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR LAND BY 48\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL BUT SOMEWHAT\r\nFASTER AS SUGGESTED BY OTHER GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nEARL CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT SHEARED BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING\r\nALOFT TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS INTENSIFY\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 27.0N  92.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 28.8N  91.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 29.5N  91.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  91.2W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  89.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS AGAIN REFORMED NEARER\r\nTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...PART OF THIS MAY REPRESENT REAL\r\nMOTION.  CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/9...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.  BECAUSE OF THE REVISED CENTER POSITION THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK NEEDS TO BE SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERSE.  SOME OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE EARL\r\nGETTING CAUGHT UP INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND LEAVE\r\nIT MEANDERING NEAR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.  A RATHER EXTENSIVE\r\nSAMPLING OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH GPS DROPWINDSONDES BY THE G-4\r\nJET SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.  THESE\r\nDATA ALSO SHOW...HOWEVER..THAT EARL DOES NOT HAVE MUCH OF A\r\nSIGNATURE AT THAT LEVEL...SUGGESTING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT\r\nMAY NOT RESPOND TO DEEPER-LAYER STEERING.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...EARL DOES NOT\r\nLOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE IN TERMS OF ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES.\r\nIN FACT...IT DOES NOT EVEN LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. \r\nTHE STORM REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS MAY\r\nPREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST STILL ACKNOWLEDGES THE CHANCE THAT EARL COULD REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.  IN ANY EVENT THERE IS\r\nA FAIRLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF STRONG\r\nWINDS MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA EAST\r\nOF PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN.   \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 27.3N  91.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 28.6N  90.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 29.8N  89.8W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 30.5N  89.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 32.5N  89.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON REPORTS MULTIPLE CENTERS AT FLIGHT LEVEL 1500 FT AND\r\nTRACKING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOST DIFFICULT.  TAFB AND\r\nSAB SATELLITE FIXES ARE 110 NMI APART.  THE PAST 24 HOUR MOTION IS\r\n030/10.  THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS STATIONARY.  I HAVE NO IDEA WHICH\r\nIS CLOSER TO BEING RIGHT.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL AND THE ETA SHOW\r\nVERY SLOW NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS...CUT\r\nOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ALSO SHOW VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z GFDL AND LBAR\r\nACCELERATES THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD...UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR 24 HOURS\r\nTHEN NEAR 20 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS...INDICATING EARL GETTING PICKED UP\r\nBY WESTERLIES...BUT NOT REAL FAST.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INITIAL MOTION FOR 09Z IS 045/08...A COMPROMISE AVERAGE\r\nOF THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITES.  THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES THIS\r\nFORWARD SPEED FOR 24 HOURS...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER 24 HOURS THE FORECAST IS A SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nDRIFT...RESPECTING THE OTHER GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGPS DROPS FROM THE GULFSTREAM AIRCRAFT EARLIER SHOWED A 500 MB\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WITH A POSSIBLE LOW JUST SOUTH OF EASTERN\r\nLOUISIANA.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS SOUTHWEST OF THE 500 MB LOW.\r\nTHIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRICTLY TROPICAL.  THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION IS IN TWO AREAS...ONE CDO TYPE NEAR THE CENTER AND THE\r\nOTHER ELONGATED EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RECON WIND WAS 51\r\nKNOTS AT 1500 FT AND BUOYS AND RIGS ALL SHOW THAT EARLY IS A 45 KNOT\r\nSTORM.  IT IS STILL WARM CORE AT 1500 FT HOWEVER AND...FOR ALL I\r\nKNOW...INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE.  I AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REACH 65 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL EVEN THOUGH\r\nIT MAY NOT BE THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nWARNINGS ARE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 27.8N  90.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 28.7N  89.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 30.0N  88.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 31.0N  88.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  88.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 33.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n\r\nRECON PLANE JUST FOUND 88-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITHIN A BAND\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 990 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE.  EARL IS\r\nBEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.  WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO\r\nBE VERY ASYMMETRIC WITH HIGHEST SPEEDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nEARL CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE CENTER WHICH\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nBASICALLY THE SAME AS SHOWN IN THE 8 AM CDT SPECIAL ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWARNINGS WERE ALREADY ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 28.8N  87.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 29.8N  86.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 31.0N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 32.5N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 34.0N  81.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 35.0N  81.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IS NOT THE TYPICAL\r\nASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANES. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNDER STRONG SHEAR\r\nBUT IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO INTENSIFY. THE WIND FIELD IS HIGHLY\r\nASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FEEDER BAND\r\nWELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE RECENTLY\r\nMEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 104 KNOTS AND JUST REPORTED...AT\r\n2028Z...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB BUT NO EYE OR WALL CLOUD\r\nFORMING.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A MUCH LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE OVERALL INITIAL\r\nMOTION. IT APPEARS THAT EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nABOUT 8 KNOTS BUT THIS ALSO COULD ANOTHER EASTWARD SHIFT OR\r\nREFORMATION.  MODELS ARE SUGGESTING TRACKS TOWARD ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\nTHE GFDL CHANGED ITS TUNE AND NOW HAS A 72-HOUR POSITION NEAR NOVA\r\nSCOTIA. \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUES WITH A\r\nGENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEST OPTION AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  ON THIS TRACK THE DIFFUSE CENTER WILL BE NEAR THE COAST\r\nWITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nDUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS\r\nREMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 29.2N  87.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 30.0N  86.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 31.5N  84.5W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 32.5N  83.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  81.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  80.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nEARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A NON-CLASSICAL CLOUD PATTERN...TO SAY THE\r\nLEAST.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT OVERALL\r\nWARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND LESS ORGANIZATION...WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nWEAKENING.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT EARL HAS DROPPED BACK TO\r\nCATEGORY ONE INTENSITY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nEXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nSTRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL OUT FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A SERIOUS STORM SURGE\r\nPROBLEM IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nTHE RECON DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND DIFFUSE...AND\r\nFIXES FROM WSR-88D RADAR ARE RATHER POOR.  THIS CONTINUES TO MAKE IT\r\nDIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE INITIAL MOTION.  THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS\r\n060/09.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY USEFUL FOR\r\nPREDICTING EARL...SO EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOVEMENT IS A\r\nPRIMARY FORECAST TOOL IN THIS CASE.  BASED ON A SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE FORECAST BASICALLY\r\nCONTINUES AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE\r\nSAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 29.5N  86.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 30.3N  85.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 31.4N  83.2W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 32.5N  81.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 34.0N  79.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 37.0N  75.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 03 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF EARL MOVED INLAND NEAR PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. RECON\r\nMEASURED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER WATER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A SERIOUS\r\nSTORM SURGE PROBLEM IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA.\r\n\r\nWINDS ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHEREFORE... WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM PANAMA CITY\r\nWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nEARL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EARL IS \r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER LAND. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 30.5N  85.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 31.5N  84.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 32.5N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  80.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 35.5N  78.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 38.5N  73.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 03 1998\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF EARL ACCELERATING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD THROUGH GEORGIA.  CURRENT MOTION IS 50 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 17 KT.  THEY ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED CIRCULATION\r\n...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT...AND THESE ARE\r\nPROBABLY LIMITED TO THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER.  GUSTS TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL\r\nWATERS OFF GEORGIA.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION AND GUIDANCE HAVE LED TO A FORECAST MOTION THAT\r\nIS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THE TRACK OF THE CENTER IS\r\nEXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE INTERIM AND SUSTAINED WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO DROP BELOW STORM STRENGTH TODAY.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES\r\nTO GRADUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WE ARE\r\nFORECASTING IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL WHEN IT LEAVES THE COAST.  THAT\r\nIS BY NO MEANS A CERTAINTY AND THE SYSTEM IS THEN LIKELY TO STILL\r\nHAVE A STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT.  THEREFORE...WHILE THIS IS INTENDED\r\nTO BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON EARL FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER...WE WILL RESUME ADVISORIES IF THE SYSTEM AGAIN BECOMES A\r\nCOASTAL OR OFFSHORE THREAT AS A TROPICAL EVENT. \r\n\r\nUNTIL THEN...INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROVIDED IN\r\nISSUANCES OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDSCCNS5 AND WMO HEADER WWUS37\r\nKWBC...TO BEGIN AT 4 PM EDT.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 32.1N  83.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 33.7N  80.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 35.9N  77.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 37.7N  73.3W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 39.8N  68.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 43.0N  55.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 1998\r\n \r\nTHE RECON FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB BUT NOT A WELL DEFINED\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER..SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A\r\nLARGE BROAD CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THERE IS\r\nENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN FORMATIVE\r\nSTAGES AND A CONSISTENT CENTER WILL LIKELY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO\r\nTRACK.  BECAUSE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE RELAXING THE SHEAR...SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nA TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS\r\nTHE RIGDE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A\r\nSECONDARY LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH IN FACT WE\r\nARE ALSO MONITORING.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 25.6N  94.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 26.0N  95.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 26.7N  97.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 27.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 27.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 08 1998\r\n \r\nWHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA IN\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IF THE SYSTEM HAD NOT ALREADY BEEN\r\nDESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION...I WOULD NOT DO SO AT THIS TIME.  BUOY\r\nREPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EVEN LESS WELL\r\nORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  WITH NO EVIDENCE OF ANY MOTION...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE STATIONARY.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A SLOW WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST MOTION... DEPENDING ON THE\r\nMODEL.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL LOCATES THE CENTER WELL SOUTH OF\r\nWHERE WE HAVE IT...BUT THE AVIATION MODEL COULD TURN OUT TO BE\r\nCORRECT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT ALONG THE SAME PATH REACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR CENTER.\r\nPERHAPS THIS CONVECTION WILL ORGANIZE INTO A BANDING FEATURE WITH\r\nTIME...BUT AT THE MOMENT THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION AND NO SIGNS\r\nOF DEVELOPMENT.  BUT THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE VICINITY\r\nAND THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 25.5N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.8N  95.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.2N  96.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 26.8N  97.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 27.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARANCE.\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH INDICATIONS OF POSSIBLE\r\nMULTIPLE CENTERS...INCLUDING IN OUR TD.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A\r\nFEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...WITH OTHER\r\nCLUSTERS SCATTERED AROUND THE WESTERN GULF.  A BROKEN CANOPY OF HIGH\r\nCLOUDS IS MAKING DIFFICULT THE ANALYSIS OF A SURFACE CENTER FROM\r\nSATELLITE...BUT CURRENT ESTIMATE WITH HELP FROM BROWNSVILLE RADAR\r\nDATA IS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY..OR DRIFTING\r\nTOWARD THE W TO WNW...AND UNCHANGED IN STRENGTH FROM 6 HOURS AGO.\r\n \r\nTHE AVN FORECASTS THAT THE LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NW WILL\r\nDRIFT TOWARD THE EAST.  THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CARRY THE TD TOWARD THE TEXAS OR NE MEXICO COAST...WITH\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE VARYING BETWEEN A NORTHWEST HEADING BY THE UKMET AND\r\nA SOUTHWEST HEADING BY THE GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO 6\r\nHOURS AGO.  IF A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK BEGINS TO OCCUR...THEN WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF MEXICO/S NORTHEAST\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 25.6N  94.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 25.7N  95.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 26.2N  96.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 26.5N  97.6W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 26.8N  98.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS STILL\r\nDISORGANIZED.  THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA RECEIVED FROM THE \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX REMAINS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED. \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT WAS FINALLY ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER BUT REPORTS AN\r\nACCURACY OF 45 NMI. MEANWHILE A RADAR CENTER FIX ESTIMATE FROM THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IS ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE AIRCRAFT POSITION.  SO...WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY\r\nSURROUNDING THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION WE WILL USE THE SAME CENTER\r\nPOSITION FROM THE 06Z ADVISORY UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE CENTER\r\nEMERGES.  \r\n\r\nRECON DATA SHOWS THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROP 1 MB AND\r\nIS NOW 998 MB.  MEANWHILE THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...35-39\r\nKNOTS...ARE 60-90 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  12Z BUOY AND SHIP\r\nDATA CONTINUES TO SHOW 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS...WITH NCDC BUOY 42002 IS\r\nREPORTING A EAST-NORTHEAST WIND OF 22 KNOTS AND A 999.9 MB PRESSURE.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL BE HELD AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS...30 KNOTS...\r\nWITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WITHIN 12 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06Z SUITE SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SCATTER\r\nALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS IS STILL WEST-NORTHWEST. THE GFDL...WHICH HAS\r\nA LEFT BIAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... IS THE LEFT-MOST OF ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWING A SOUTHWEST HEADING.  THIS SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED\r\nRIDGE.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE CENTER LOCATION THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PACKAGE FROM 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHIS SEEMS TO BE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET UNTIL WE CAN GET A MORE\r\nCLEAR-CUT CENTER POSITION AND SUBSEQUENT MOTION.  THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED.\r\n\r\nTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CORPUS CHRISTI RADAR 24-\r\nHOUR RAINFALL TOTAL OF NEAR 6 INCHES BETWEEN CORPUS AND BROWNSVILLE.\r\nAFTER COORDINATION WITH CORPUS AND BROWNSVILLE A STATEMENT WILL BE\r\nADDED TO THE PUBLIC ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTING POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nWITH MORE DETAILS IN THE LOCAL STATEMENT ISSUED BY CORPUS CHRISTI. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 25.6N  94.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 25.9N  95.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 26.2N  96.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 26.5N  97.6W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 26.8N  98.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.9N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO NAME... \r\n \r\nAT 18Z BUOY 42019...LOCATED JUST OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST...\r\nREPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AT 3 METERS.  THE LAST AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 40 KNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS DATA TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SIX IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANCES.\r\n \r\nSEVERAL OIL RIG OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED 40 TO 50 KNOTS WINDS\r\n...AT ABOUT 30 METERS...OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF...DURING THE DAY.\r\nALTHOUGH THESE STRONG WINDS A LIKELY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND\r\nRADII ENCOMPASS THESE WINDS.\r\n \r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES FROM RECONNAISSANCE...RADAR...AND SATELLITE\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS BROAD AND POORLY\r\nDEFINED.  HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST SEVERAL\r\nVORTICES ARE ROTATING AROUND A LARGER CIRCULATION.  WHILE EARLIER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE WAS ABLE TO FIX A CENTER...ALBEIT WITH 45 NM ACCURACY\r\n...THEY WERE UNABLE TO LOCATE A CENTER ON THE LAST PASS.  WITH THE\r\nOVERALL ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT..I.E. NO APPRECIABLE\r\nWIND SHEAR AND 30C SST...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  THERE\r\nIS A DISTINCT POSSIBLITY THAT THE CENTER WILL REFORM SOUTH OF THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  THUS... WITH THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY\r\nSURROUNDING THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION WE WILL HOLD THE POSITION FROM\r\nTHE 12Z ADVISORY UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE CENTER EMERGES. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING ALTHOUGH THIS\r\nIS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON WHERE/IF THE CENTER IS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW HIGHLY DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.  THE EXTREMES ARE CLIPER WHICH\r\nBRINGS THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFDL HOOKS FRANCES\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nWITH SEVERAL MODELS NOW SHOWING A MORE NORTHWEST HEADING.  THE\r\nGFDL...ALONG WITH THE NGM...SHOWS FRANCES ROTATING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST\r\nALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. EXAMINATION OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION FIELDS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE GFDL IS TRACKING A SMALL-SCALE CENTER WITHIN A\r\nLARGER CIRCULATION.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF A MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST-\r\nSOUTHEAST ORIENTED RIDGE SUPPORTS A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE CENTER LOCATION THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IDENTICAL TO THE PACKAGE FROM 12Z. THIS SEEMS TO\r\nBE THE PATH OF LEAST REGRET UNTIL WE CAN GET A MORE CLEAR-CUT CENTER\r\nPOSITION AND SUBSEQUENT MOTION.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE SIZE OF FRANCES THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE TEXAS/MEXICAN BORDER TO TAMPICO\r\nMEXICO.  ALL OTHER TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 25.6N  94.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 25.9N  95.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 26.2N  96.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 26.5N  97.6W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 26.8N  98.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n \r\nFRANCES CONSISTS OF A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE SURROUNDED BY A RING\r\nOF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITHOUT A DEFINITIVE TIGHT CENTER.\r\nTHIS PATTERN RESEMBLES A MONSOON-TYPE GYRE WHICH IS NOT COMMON IN\r\nTHE ATLANTIC BUT IS FREQUENTLY OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST FOUND A CENTER OF 994 MB TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS POSITION AND BY NO MEANS THIS IS TRANSLATED INTO A\r\nSOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE STORM.  THIS IS BASICALLY A REFORMATION AND\r\nAPPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS LARGE.. OTHER CENTERS MAY FORM WHILE FRANCES IS IN\r\nFORMATIVE STAGE.  THE CIRCULATION OF FRANCES IS TRYING TO BECOME\r\nMORE CONCENTRATED AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES RISE AND THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FALLS.  AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nBECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW\r\nJETS.  THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND IN\r\nFACT...AN OIL RIG LOCATED ABOUT 100 FEET ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL AND TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF FRANCES JUST REPORTED A GUST TO 83 MPH.  OTHER RIGS\r\nARE REPORTING GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH.\r\n \r\nWE SHOULD NOT CONCENTRATE IN THE BROAD CENTER OF FRANCES. INSTEAD\r\n...WE SHOULD FOCUS ON THE RING OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND\r\nHEAVY RAINS WHICH SURROUNDS THE STORM. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALREADY\r\nAFFECTING THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS\r\nMUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS BRING FRANCES\r\nTOWARD NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT KEEPS\r\nFRANCES NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 23.5N  95.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  95.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 24.0N  96.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 24.5N  97.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.3N  98.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 26.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LAST OF THE FOUR FIXES FROM THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nFLIGHT CAME AT ABOUT 05Z AND SHOWED THE CENTER CONTINUING TO JUMP\r\nAROUND A LITTLE.  DATA AVAILABLE SUBSEQUENTLY SUGGESTS LITTLE NET\r\nMOTION AND NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...WITH 40 KT REMAINING THE\r\nESTIMATE OF THE SUSTAINED WIND.\r\n \r\nFRANCES REMAINS WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN\r\nLOCKED IN PLACE AS PART OF A COMPLEX OMEGA/REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN\r\nCENTERED OVER THE CONTINENT...AND WHICH ALSO CONTAINS JAVIER IN THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC.  THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS INDICATE A SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nREALIGNMENT OF THE DOMINANT HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL STATES IN THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW THIS BROAD LOW AND FRANCES TO SHIFT A\r\nLITTLE WESTWARD AS WELL.  THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE STRONG DOWNSTREAM\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOES NOT ELONGATE SOUTHWESTWARD FAR\r\nENOUGH TO PULL FRANCES TOWARD THE NE.  THE TRACK MODELS RUN FROM\r\nTHIS LARGE-SCALE SETTING GENERALLY SHOW A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE\r\nWNW...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 23.5N  95.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 23.9N  95.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 24.3N  96.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.8N  97.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.4N  97.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 26.5N  99.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nTRACKING OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE.  THE\r\nCENTER HAS CONTINUED TO REFORM WITHIN A BROADER SCALE CIRCULATION\r\nENVELOPE...AND ALTHOUGH LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE MORE TO THE NORTH\r\nTHIS IS NOT BELIEVED TO REPRESENT A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION.  IN FACT...THE OVERALL AREA OF PRECIPITATION ON\r\nRADAR APPEARS TO BE SPREADING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS.\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A LARGE 500 MB HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SO A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nOVERALL THE CYCLONE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED THAN IT DID 24\r\nHOURS AGO.  FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF\r\nA CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE AREA OF LOWEST PRESSURE. \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MORE HEAVY SHOWERS FORMING NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... STRENGTHENING COULD\r\nOCCUR SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ANTICYCLONIC AND THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 25.5N  95.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 25.7N  95.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 25.9N  96.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  97.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 26.2N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 26.5N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A BROAD CENTRAL AREA OF ABOUT EQUAL\r\nPRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS...AND SMALLER-SCALE VORTICES EVIDENT ON HIGH-\r\nRES VISIBLE IMAGERY.  AS SUCH IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A UNIQUE\r\nCENTER.  BUT...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER-ORGANIZED AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED\r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS...WELL NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  RECENTLY...AN OIL RIG NEAR 28N92W REPORTED SUSTAINED\r\nWINDS OF 68 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 77 KNOTS MORE THAN 100 FEET ABOVE\r\nSEA LEVEL.  THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW\r\nLOW VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL CENTER SHIFTS OR REFORMATIONS TO\r\nTHE NORTH...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN SHOWS A 500\r\nMB HIGH PERSISTING NEAR AND TO NORTHEAST OF TEXAS...PROVIDING A WEAK\r\nEAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FRANCES\r\nTO MOVE INLAND SLOWLY OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS WITHIN IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WERE EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE LOUISIANA COAST\r\nBECAUSE OF THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THAT AREA.  IF THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING TREND CONTINUES...A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nLATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 26.5N  95.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 27.0N  96.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 27.6N  97.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 28.0N  98.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 28.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nFRANCES LOOKS MORE LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE TONIGHT THAN\r\nANY OTHER TIME BEFORE.  THERE IS A CONCENTRATED AREA OF STRONG\r\nSQUALLS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE DOPPLER WINDS\r\nALOFT HAVE REACH 70 KNOTS. RECON JUST FOUND A BROAD 995 MB PRESSURE\r\nCENTER AND 59-KNOT WINDS.\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER HAS ALREADY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER\r\nTEXAS COAST AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW\r\nMORE HOURS AND GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nIS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BUT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nALREADY OVER LAND.  THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS STILL MEANDERING BUT THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE 500 MB\r\nRIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS SUGGESTED\r\nBY MOST OF THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED VARIES AMONG THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nSEVERE FLOODING FROM STORM SURGE AND RAIN IS OCCURRING ALONG THE MID\r\nTO UPPER TEXAS COAST. DETAILS ARE INCLUDED IN STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ONCE FRANCES MAKES\r\nLANDFALL...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED BUT VERY HEAVY RAINS AND\r\nFLOODING ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 27.6N  95.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  96.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 29.3N  97.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 30.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 1998\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECON DATA SHOWED THE CENTER OF FRANCES MAKING LANDFALL\r\nBETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND PORT OCONNOR AROUND 06Z.  THE CENTER HAS\r\nPROGRESSED INLAND DURING THE FOLLOWING FEW HOURS ON A HEADING OF\r\nABOUT 315 DEGREES AT AROUND 12 KT.  WHILE THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nSHOULD ABATE...THE OFFSHORE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING RATHER\r\nSLOWLY.\r\n \r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE FROM LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND TRACK PREDICTION\r\nSCHEMES GENERALLY SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS DOES THE\r\nNHC FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS DIVERGENCE WITH SOME MODELS\r\nTAKING THE REMNANTS TOWARD THE NORTH AND OTHERS SUGGESTING A DUE\r\nWESTWARD HEADING.  ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM STALLING...BUT THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED COULD\r\nNEVERTHELESS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nTEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nFLOODING FROM STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO SLOWLY DIMINISH DURING THE\r\nDAY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND DECREASE MORE QUICKLY TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  DETAILS ARE CONTAINED IN STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 28.5N  97.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 29.4N  98.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 30.0N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N 101.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 31.0N 102.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 1998\r\n \r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME ELONGATED...AS THE\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR CENTERS ARE WELL WEST OF WHERE SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM VICTORIA TEXAS WOULD PLACE THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS FRANCES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE END OF A LARGE SCALE\r\nAND WELL DEFINED FRONTAL ZONE.  PERHAPS FRANCES IS EVOLVING INTO A\r\nWAVE ON A FRONT.  THIS COULD KEEP THE CIRCULATION VIGOROUS FOR SOME\r\nTIME LONGER...AND KEEP THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN INLAND FOR LONGER.\r\n\r\nTHE SABINE C-MAN REPORTED 41 KNOTS AT 12Z AND 31 KNOTS AT 13Z AND 35\r\nKNOTS AT 14Z.  THE WIND IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR 15Z...BUT WE SHOULD\r\nBE ABLE TO DOWNGRADE FRANCES TO A DEPRESSION AT 18Z AND TAKE DOWN\r\nTHE COASTAL WARNINGS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWED TO 300/07 BECAUSE OF THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION DISCUSSED ABOVE.  THE MODELS ALL SHOW A\r\nSLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 48 HOURS.  THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL AND UKMET AND LBAR SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD AFTER 48\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nFOR 48 HOURS AND THEN ADDS THE NORTHWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 28.6N  97.7W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 29.2N  98.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 29.9N  99.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.5N 100.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 31.4N 101.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 34.0N 101.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN APPROXIMATELY STATIONARY FOR AT LEAST 6\r\nHOURS...BASED ON SURFACE OBS...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  THE\r\nAVIATION-MODEL-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nA SHIP XCMP HAD 33 KNOTS AT 18Z AT 28.9N 93.9W...SO THE WIND SPEED\r\nIS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT 18Z.  SINCE FRANCES IS NOT MOVING YET...THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WEAKENING MAY BE DELAYED A FEW MORE HOURS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 28.6N  97.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 29.0N  97.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.0N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 31.1N  98.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 32.1N  98.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 34.0N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frances","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 1998\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...REMNANTS OF FRANCES SHOULD MOVE\r\nON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT SOME ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY STILL OCCUR OVER WATER WITHIN SOME OF THE\r\nRAINBANDS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS\r\nPRIMARILY OVER EASTERN TEXAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FRANCES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDSCCNS1.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 29.7N  96.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 30.5N  96.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 31.5N  96.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 32.0N  96.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 33.0N  96.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 34.0N  96.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 1998\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST YESTERDAY HAS\r\nBECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nSHIP MVLAZ LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER NEAR REPORTED 30 KNOT\r\nEASTERLY WINDS AND 1008.8 MB AND ANOTHER SHIP SOUTHWEST OF THE CLOUD\r\nSYSTEM CENTER REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS ABOUT 20 KNOTS.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AN\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF DUE WEST\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER... A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS SINCE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING WESTWARD WITH\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LIMITED INITIAL\r\nGUIDANCE AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. THIS IS THE FIRST FORECAST AND IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z  9.0N  25.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z  9.0N  28.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z  9.0N  32.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z  9.5N  35.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 10.0N  39.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 11.0N  46.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 1998\r\n...CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO 3 \r\nNO METEOSAT IMAGERY RECEIVED FROM 23Z THROUGH DEVELOPMENT OF THIS\r\nFORECAST...BUT AVAILABLE CENTER FIXES WERE A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE EXPECTED POSITION AND IMPLY A SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOTION THAN\r\nEXPECTATIONS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST.\r\n\r\nAS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN EASED NORTHWARD A\r\nBIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 275/15 KT.  THE\r\nSYSTEM RETAINS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nAN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MORE DISTANT TO THE NW.  THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO.  A 01Z\r\nPICTURE RECEIVED JUST BEFORE RELEASE OF THIS ADVISORY SHOWS A MORE\r\nDEVELOPED AND CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY CLOSELY CLUSTERED...GENERALLY INDICATING\r\nA WESTWARD...BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER AND A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN THE FIRST ADVISORY.  THIS TRACK\r\nASSUMES THAT A NARROWING E-W RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL HOLD...EVEN\r\nWITH THE LARGE TROUGH THAT THE 18Z AVN AND 12Z NOGAPS SHOW\r\nGENERATING WESTERLIES AT 500 MB ALL THE WAY DOWN TO 25-30N OVER MUCH\r\nOF THE ATLANTIC BY 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR\r\nFORECAST INTENSIFICATION THAN PREVIOUSLY. \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 10.1N  28.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 10.2N  30.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 10.6N  33.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 11.0N  36.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 11.6N  39.1W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 13.0N  44.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 16 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...\r\nWHICH HAD BEEN WANING EARLIER THIS MORNING...HAS MADE A COMEBACK \r\nPER THE LAST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE \r\nHELD AT 30 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE AND REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED. \r\nRECENT SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING\r\nFEATURE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DEPRESSION WHILE STILL\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE EAST.  WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SST/S...28C...AND\r\nANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE\r\nSTUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING A LIGHT VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THUS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORDANCE\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS. THIS BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY GOOD CLIP WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/16 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE 72 HOURS AS THE WESTERLIES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nREMAIN NORTH OF 25N...PER THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL OUTPUT. MEANWHILE \r\nTHE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL HAS THE TROUGH SLIGHTLY DEEPER RESULTING IN A\r\nWEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  ITS INTERESTING\r\nTO NOTE THAT THE 00Z UNITED KINGDOM MET OFFICE MODEL LOSES THE\r\nSYSTEM AFTER 24 HOURS WHEREAS THE 15/12Z RUN HELD ON TO THE SYSTEM\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  MOST OF THE 06Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED\r\nAROUND A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL.  THIS REPRESENTS A VERY SLIGHT LEFT ADJUSTMENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 10.2N  30.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 10.3N  32.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 10.6N  35.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 11.3N  38.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 12.0N  42.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 13.0N  47.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 16 1998\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE AND THE\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH\r\n2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE DATA-T FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL\r\nWEATHER CENTER IS 3.0. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO\r\nA TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\n200 MB EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nBRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND MAKES GEORGES A 70-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ANCHORED\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK MODELS PRIMARILY THE GDFL...LBAR AND\r\nCLIMATOLOGY. \r\n\r\nONE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE AVN DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WELL\r\nAHEAD OF GEORGES AND THIS MODEL FEATURE ERODES THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING GEORGES. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC...AND THE RIDGE COULD REMAIN STRONG.\r\nIF SO...GEORGES SHOULD CONTINUE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 10.5N  32.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 10.7N  34.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.2N  38.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 11.5N  41.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 12.2N  44.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 13.5N  50.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 16 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IT HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM\r\nCDO TO BANDING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE OUTFLOW IS WELL\r\nDEFINED ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGESTING THAT THERE ARE NO\r\nWESTERLIES AHEAD.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nREMAIN 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE BUT DATA T IS HIGHER. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST 200 MB EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AND BOTH SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND MAKES GEORGES A 70-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ANCHORED\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK MODELS PRIMARILY THE GDFL...LBAR AND\r\nCLIMATOLOGY.  IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOW VERSION OF\r\nLBAR. IT APPEARS THAT BAM MODELS ARE INFLUENCED BY THE UNREALISTIC\r\nCIRCULATION WHICH THE AVN MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT AHEAD OF\r\nGEORGES.  \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 10.7N  34.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 10.9N  36.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 11.3N  39.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 11.8N  42.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 12.0N  46.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 13.5N  51.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE IR IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOW TWO PERSISTENT CLUSTERS OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION...OCCASIONALLY WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN\r\n-80C.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CLUSTERS.\r\nOUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE REMAINS PARTICULARLY WELL-DEVELOPED AND...\r\nWITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW AT 3.0...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 17 KT...TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A HIGH DETECTED IN WV IMAGERY.  THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS FARTHER TO THE NORTH WILL\r\nCONTINUE BYPASSING GEORGES WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AT LEAST INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFDL AND AVN OUTPUT FROM 18Z AND THE NOGAPS FROM 12Z...ONLY A SLOW\r\nROTATION OF THE HEADING FROM WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK GIVEN IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FROM 6 HOURS AGO.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS BRING GEORGES TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IMPLIES A LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 11.0N  35.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 11.3N  38.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 11.6N  41.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 12.1N  44.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 12.8N  47.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N  53.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 17 1998\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE TWO PREVIOUSLY SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ON\r\nEITHER SIDE OF THE CENTER HAVE MERGED.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH THE EXPANSION OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  CLOUD-DRIFT WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS HINDERING THE OUTFLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nREMAIN 45 KNOTS...AS WILL THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nCONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS GEORGES\r\nTO HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HOURS...WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GEORGES CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH\r\nOF DUE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/17 KNOTS.\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF GEORGES SHOULD CONTINUE STEERING THE\r\nSYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TO LESSEN THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE LARGE-SCALE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND LBAR...AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 11.4N  37.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 11.8N  40.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.3N  43.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N  46.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.5N  49.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N  55.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 17 1998\r\n\r\nA SEQUENCE OF SSMI IMAGES DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS...COURTESY OF NRL\r\nMONTEREY HOMEPAGE...INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF GEORGES IS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THESE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THERE\r\nIS ALMOST A CLOSED EYEWALL.  THIS COINCIDES WITH EARLIER VISIBLE\r\nMETEOSAT IMAGES THAT SUGGESTED AN EYE WAS TRYING TO FORM BUT\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT SUPPORT SUCH FEATURE.  IN FACT...THE APPARENT\r\nEYE IS NO LONGER CLEARLY OBSERVED AND T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 3.0 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE.  ALL OF THE ABOVE JUSTIFIES THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS AT LEAST 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN A 200 MB HIGH WITH EASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS GEORGES TO\r\n86 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS AND THE GFDL ALSO STRENGTHENS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO HURRICANE STATUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nSHIPS BRINGING GEORGES TO 85 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  IF THE EYE DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY...GEORGES MAY BE\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS\r\nA CONTINUED MOTION SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY GFDL...LBAR AND UK MODELS.\r\n\r\nNOTE: 5-DAY GFDL AND LBAR BRING GEORGES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN SUCH LONG\r\nRANGE FORECASTS. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 12.2N  39.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.3N  41.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.7N  44.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 13.2N  48.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 14.0N  51.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N  58.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GEORGES HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND THE\r\nEXPERIMENTAL AND NEW OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS.  THIS IMPLIES THAT GEORGES IS NOW A\r\nHURRICANE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC\r\n...AND GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A 200 MB HIGH WITH\r\nEASTERLIES OVER THE DEEP TROPICS THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS GEORGES TO 107 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS\r\nA CONTINUED MOTION SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY GFDL...LBAR AND UK MODELS.\r\n \r\nNOTE: 5-DAY GFDL AND LBAR BRING GEORGES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.   HOWEVER...THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN SUCH LONG\r\nRANGE FORECASTS WHICH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 12.5N  41.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.8N  43.7W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 13.2N  47.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 14.0N  51.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N  54.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N  60.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998\r\n \r\nA 2239Z SSM/I IMAGE ON THE NRL HOMEPAGE CLEARLY SHOWS AN EYE IN\r\nGEORGES.  ANCHORING ON THAT POSITION...AND ASSUMING NO NAVIGATION\r\nPROBLEMS...GIVES AN INITIAL MOVEMENT OF 275 TO 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT\r\n18 KT.  THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH AN AVERAGE OF TAFB AND SAB ANALYSES.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED\r\nTO THE NNE...AND EXTENDING TO JUST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE 18Z\r\nAVN MAINTAINS A RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 25N THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nIN THIS REGIME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE...AND\r\nTHIS IS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS SOME DISPERSION OF MODEL TRACKS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...\r\nMOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\n \r\nSTRENGTHENING SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS SHOWN. \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 12.6N  43.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 12.8N  45.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 13.2N  49.6W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 13.9N  53.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 14.3N  56.2W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N  62.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DERIVED T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 TO 5.0 AND AN EYE CAN BE\r\nDETECTED IN THE INFRARED. THUS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80\r\nKTS.  THE SYSTEM HAS ALL OF THE CLASSICAL FEATURES TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE...GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW...WARM SSTS AND INCREASING\r\nALONG THE TRACK...INFLOW FROM THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH IS ALSO\r\nCREATING A BASIC CURRENT THAT IS MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST AT\r\nABOUT 20 KTS.  INTENSITY CHANGES ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS\r\nAND ARE SUPPORTED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE.   \r\n \r\nIN THIS REGIME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE...AND\r\nTHIS IS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS SOME DISPERSION OF MODEL TRACKS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...\r\nMOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 12.9N  45.2W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 13.1N  48.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 13.8N  52.3W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 14.4N  56.3W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 15.1N  60.4W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 16.4N  68.5W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n\r\nCOR TO ADJUST INITIAL INTENSITY IN FIRST PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nGEORGES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER.  LATEST OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 5.0 SO WINDS ARE 85 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND GEORGES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nCATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/18. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THEREFORE...A\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE GFDL...LBAR...A9UK AND CLIPER.  HOWEVER...NOGAPS...MRF AND UKMET\r\nARE SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THIS MAY REQUIRE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nTRACK LATER ON.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 13.1N  46.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 13.4N  49.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 13.7N  52.9W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 14.3N  56.6W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N  60.0W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N  66.0W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE\r\nINDICATING THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KNOTS. THE EYE AS WELL AS\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE PERSISTED ALL DAY AND THERE ARE A NO\r\nWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND\r\nGEORGES IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/19. A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THEREFORE...A\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE GFDL AND LBAR ALTHOUGH NOGAPS...AVN UKMET AND HPC ARE SHOWING A\r\nMORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND OTHER MODELS SUGGEST TRACKS SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IN\r\nOTHER WORDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL\r\nFORECAST TRACK ENSEMBLE AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 13.7N  48.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.0N  51.4W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N  55.3W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N  59.1W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N  62.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N  67.5W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE PICTURES THIS EVENING WITH\r\nSSM/I AND...OCCASIONALLY...GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTING A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL PATTERN.  CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE CONTINUE TO\r\nINCREASE...BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE STILL 5.0...SO 90 KT IS AGAIN\r\nTHE ESTIMATED WIND SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING IS 275/280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KT.  WHILE THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...DETAILS\r\nABOUT ITS EVOLUTION ARE BECOMING CRITICAL FOR THE CARIBBEAN.  MOST\r\nTRACK MODELS BASED ON THE 12Z AVN SHOW GEORGES STAYING ON A NEARLY\r\nWESTWARD COURSE AND HITTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY SUNDAY MORNING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THEM AND IF THIS IS STILL THE LIKELY\r\nTRACK TOMORROW MORNING...THEN A HURRICANE WARNING WILL BECOME\r\nNECESSARY.  ALTERNATELY...THE MOST RECENTLY AVAILABLE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS MODEL OUTPUTS...FROM 12Z...FAVOR A MORE WNW TRACK WHICH\r\nPASSES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.  THE 18Z AVN SHOWS A\r\nMUCH SLOWER MOTION WITH GEORGES STILL EAST OF THE ISLANDS IN THREE\r\nDAYS.  THIS DOESNT SEEM TOO REALISTIC AT THIS POINT.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOR TWO REASONS.  FIRST...THE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERROR\r\nFOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST IS AROUND 200 MILES.  SECOND...THE HURRICANE\r\nIS NOT A POINT.  GEORGES IS LIKELY TO AFFECT AN AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES ACROSS.  ALL AREAS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH ARE POTENTIAL\r\nTARGETS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF GEORGES REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS OUR SHIPS SCHEME.\r\nTHE SHIFOR AND GFDL GUIDANCE DONT SHOW AS MUCH INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ANALYSIS\r\nOF SSM/I DATA MADE BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY. \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 14.0N  50.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.4N  52.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.9N  56.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N  59.7W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.9N  62.8W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N  68.0W   115 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE STILL 5.0...SO 90 KT REMAINS THE ESTIMATED WIND\r\nSPEED.  IT APPEARS...THE HURRICANE HAS UNDERGONE SOME EYE STRUCTURE\r\nCHANGES AS REFLECTED IN THE SSM/I SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST\r\n12 HRS AND THE EYE DIAMETER IS NOW MUCH LARGER. THE SYSTEM MAY BE\r\nADJUSTING ITS HORIZONTAL WIND FIELD...A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 175 NMI\r\nMILES NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 40 KTS AND 16 FOOT SEAS AT OOZ. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING ARE STILL\r\nPRESENT AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS. \r\n \r\nTHE HEADING IS 280/16 KT WHICH IS A DECREASE FROM 24 HOURS AGO WHERE\r\nIT WAS 275/20 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE BASIC CURRENT WHICH IS\r\nDEPENDENT ON THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS DECREASING WHICH ALSO\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS 24\r\nHOURS AGO.  WHILE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD COMPONENT IN THE\r\nTRACK COULD OCCUR.  THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE ON\r\nEITHER SIDE OF THE OFFICIAL EXTRAPOLATED FORECAST TRACK AND THE GFDL\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  NOGAPS...UKMET...AND AVN TO THE NORTH AND BAM\r\nMODELS AND A98 TO THE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH AT THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOSITIONS.  BASED ON THIS A HURRICANE WARNING WILL BECOME NECESSARY\r\nLATER THIS MORNING FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOR TWO REASONS.  FIRST...THE AVERAGE NHC TRACK ERROR\r\nFOR A 48 HOUR FORECAST IS AROUND 200 MILES.  SECOND...THE HURRICANE\r\nIS NOT A POINT.  GEORGES IS LIKELY TO AFFECT AN AREA SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES ACROSS.  ALL AREAS WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH ARE POTENTIAL\r\nTARGETS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ANALYSIS\r\nOF SSM/I DATA MADE BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY AND THE SHIP\r\nOBSERVATION AT 00Z.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 14.2N  51.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.7N  54.1W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N  57.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.6N  60.7W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N  63.6W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N  69.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0...WHICH IS EQUIVALENT TO 115\r\nKNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 110 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.\r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE EYE OF GEORGE THIS AFTERNOON\r\nAND WILL GIVE US A MEASUREMENT OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN EXCELLENT EYE PRESENTATION AND WELL\r\nDEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR AND THERE ARE NO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHEREFORE... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/16.  THERE IS A WELL DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. SO\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE SAME GENERAL HEADING THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE DIVERGENT.  SOME GOOD MODELS\r\nLIKE NOGAPS AND UKMET MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK AND THE REST SHOW A STRAIT WESTWARD MOTION AND\r\nEVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST A CARBON\r\nCOPY OF THE GFDL AND LBAR WHICH ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST ENSEMBLE.   \r\n\r\nA KEY PLAYER COULD BE AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. MODELS WEAKEN\r\nTHE LOW RAPIDLY OR MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF\r\nEITHER AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW REMAINS...A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT \r\nSHOULD RESULT.   \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 15.0N  52.8W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.4N  55.3W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 15.7N  58.4W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N  61.5W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N  65.0W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N  71.0W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 146 KNOTS NEAR\r\nIN THE EYEWALL. A DROP IN THE EYEWALL JUST MEASURED 119 KNOTS WHICH\r\nIS AN AVERAGE OVER THE LOWEST 2000 FEET OR SO. THEREFORE...INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KNOTS. THIS MATCHES WITH THE OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5. \r\nSOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BUT INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE\r\nAS THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE ISLANDS LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING 290/17 KNOTS. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE\r\nA 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST OR STRENGTHEN.  THIS RIDGE COULD FORCE THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY LBAR...BAMD AND\r\nTHE RELIABLE GFDL. HOWEVER..SINCE NOGPAS AND THE UKMET MODELS ARE\r\nCONSISTENTLY TAKING GEORGE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE\r\nCURRENT INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK. THIS MOTION BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS AND NEAR PUERTO RICO WITHIN 48 HOUR OR SO. \r\n \r\nA KEY PLAYER COULD BE AN UPPER LOW OVER HISPANIOLA. MODELS WEAKEN\r\nTHE LOW RAPIDLY OR MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF\r\nEITHER AT THIS TIME. IF THE LOW REMAINS...A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT\r\nSHOULD RESULT.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 15.7N  54.4W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.5N  57.0W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N  60.3W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N  63.5W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N  66.5W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N  72.5W   130 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n \r\nTHE PRESSURE WAS DROPPING RAPIDLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE\r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAD TO LEAVE BECAUSE OF MECHANICAL\r\nPROBLEMS.  HOWEVER...A NOAA PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED 939 MB SO IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE RAPID DEEPENING MAY HAVE CEASED FOR NOW.  ANOTHER\r\nAIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED INTO GEORGES AROUND 0600Z.  CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS.  TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\n0000Z WERE ALL IN AGREEMENT WITH A T6.5...127 KNOTS.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. ONE OF THE GPS\r\nDROPWINDSONDES ACTUALLY REPORTED 166 KNOTS AT LOW LEVELS IN THE\r\nEYEWALL...BUT ONE MUST REMEMBER THAT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE\r\nSOMEWHAT LESS.  THE ESTIMATE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IS NOW 130\r\nKNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...BUT GEORGES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  THE WEAKENING\r\nINDICATED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS DUE TO INVOLVEMENT\r\nWITH HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...NEAR 16 KNOTS. \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER HAITI IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD AND NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR.  THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF GEORGES WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE TRACK.  OUR TRACK\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND LBAR.  THE UKMET AND NAVY NOGAPS ARE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT...WHILE THE MID AND DEEP LAYER BAMS AS WELL AS NHC98 ARE\r\nTO THE LEFT.  THE NOAA JET AND THE TWO NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ARE FLYING\r\nIN THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND GEORGES TO HELP INITIALIZE THE 0000Z MODEL\r\nRUNS.\r\n \r\nONE BIG CHANGE SINCE THE ADDITION OF RECONNAISSANCE DATA HAS BEEN IN\r\nTHE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT\r\nANALYSIS BY THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION WHICH INCORPORATES DATA\r\nFROM AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE...AND SHIPS.  BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN\r\nSIZE...MARTINIQUE AND ST LUCIA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. \r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 15.8N  55.8W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.2N  58.3W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 16.8N  61.6W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.4N  65.0W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.8N  68.0W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N  73.5W   120 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n \r\nA NEW RECON FIX AT 08Z GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/15\r\nOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZES A TROUGH\r\nBETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE HURRICANE.  THIS RESULTS IN THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL TURNING THE HURRICANE DUE NORTHWARD.  THE INITIALIZATION IS\r\nPROBABLY INCORRECT IN THAT THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 500 MB WIND AT\r\nBARBADOS IS PROBABLY PART OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE RATHER\r\nTHAN A SEPARATE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nTHE UKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH SHOW A TRACK NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN\r\nAND NOW SHOWS A 72-HOUR POSITION JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY SHIFTED\r\nABOUT 100 MILES NORTH AT 72 HOURS AND SMALLER DISTANCES AT THE\r\nSHORTER FORECAST PERIODS...AND IS ABOUT HALF-WAY BETWEEN THE GFDL\r\nMODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nTHE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nWAS 939 MB AND THE HIGHEST WIND SO FAR WAS 132 KNOTS NEAR THE\r\nSURFACE FROM A GPS DROP IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND 146 KNOTS AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLING FOR LITTLE CHANGE\r\nEXCEPT SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 16.1N  57.1W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 16.6N  59.3W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 17.2N  62.2W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 17.9N  65.2W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N  68.0W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N  73.0W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n\r\nSINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON THE MOTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY TOWARD 280\r\nDEGREES...I.E. JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST.  FORWARD SPEED HAS\r\nSLOWED A LITTLE MORE...TO NEAR 14 KNOTS.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TOWARD THE WEST IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS.   WITH THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING FLOW...SOME FURTHER\r\nSLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nNOT MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN IS LIKELY IN THE FIRST PART OF THE\r\nPERIOD...SINCE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD BE STRONG\r\nOVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EXCEPT A BIT SLOWER.  THIS\r\nIS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN. \r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFDL TRACK SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nTO THE NORTH AFTER THE ADDITION OF A LARGE AMOUNT OF DATA FROM A\r\nSYNOPTIC FLOW EXPERIMENT CONDUCTED YESTERDAY EVENING WITH THREE NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT.  HOWEVER...IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nTREND WILL MATERIALIZE IN THE LONGER-RANGE...BEYOND 3 DAYS...TRACK\r\nOF THIS HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nAN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE/TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nHISPANIOLA YESTERDAY HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AROUND 5 DEGREES.  IT IS\r\nNOT CLEAR WHAT ROLE THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY...BUT IF IT CUTS OFF INTO\r\nA SMALLER-SCALE CYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS COULD LESSEN THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK FOR GEORGES. \r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS SYMMETRICAL AROUND THE\r\nCENTER AS IT WAS EARLIER.  NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE REMAINS QUITE\r\nFORMIDABLE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS STILL AROUND 130\r\nKNOTS.  ASIDE FROM FLUCTUATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH MECHANISMS SUCH AS\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nANTICIPATED UNTIL GEORGES INTERACTS WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 16.3N  58.5W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 16.8N  60.7W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N  63.5W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 18.3N  66.0W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N  68.0W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N  72.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGES...GEORGES IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING AS IT WAS\r\nYESTERDAY.  THERE IS NO EYE AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY\r\nSYMMETRICALLY ARRANGED ABOUT THE CENTER.  RECON SHOWS A HIGHER\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE THAN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT RECENTLY REPORTED 129\r\nKNOTS AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...AND GEORGES IS STILL A VERY\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE.  THERE ARE NO OBVIOUSLY UNFAVORABLE SIGNS IN\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT...SO IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THIS HURRICANE\r\nWILL RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME WEAKENING COULD\r\nOCCUR IF GEORGES INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE\r\nLARGER ISLANDS SUCH AS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST NEAR 14\r\nKNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  ONE OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS IS A MID-TO\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN 20N-30N TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED DURING\r\nTHE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GEORGES ON A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.   ACCORDING TO THE 12Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nRUN...THIS RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO SHIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.  AS USUAL THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE 48-\r\nAND 72-HOURS POSITIONS.  ALTHOUGH THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO\r\nMAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...3 DAYS\r\nAND BEYOND...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME AMPLIFICATION OF A DEEP-\r\nLAYER/MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR AND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST WITH WESTERLIES SAGGING THROUGH 30N LATITUDE.  THUS IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT A MORE NORTHWARD COURSE COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE.  IT IS SIMPLY TOO\r\nEARLY TO SPEAK WITH ANY CONFIDENCE ABOUT A THREAT TO THE MAINLAND\r\nU.S. AT THIS TIME.   \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 16.5N  59.9W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 16.9N  62.1W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 17.7N  64.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N  67.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 19.2N  69.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N  73.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n \r\nTHE MET OFFICE IN GUADELOUPE HAS FORWARDED THE 01Z OBSERVATION FROM\r\nDESIRADE WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 57 KNOTS WITH A GUSTS TO\r\n76 KNOTS.  THE LATEST DATA RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT GEORGES HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nWEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAVING RISEN TO\r\n966 MB. THIS REPRESENTS A 25 MB INCREASE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THE LAST PASS WAS 114 KNOTS.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE WEAKENING TREND WITH THE COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS REMAINING ASYMMETRIC AND THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 100 KNOTS...KEEPING GEORGES A CATEGORY THREE\r\nHURRICANE THAT IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nIS RESTRICTED.  EXAMINATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ALONG WITH\r\nANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE\r\nSTUDIES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...SUGGESTS THAT NORTH/\r\nNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS ONE OF THE POSSIBLE\r\nCULPRITS RESPONSIBLE FOR GEORGES WEAKENING.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION. ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN MORE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nLARGER ISLANDS...I.E. PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THEREFORE...GIVEN\r\nTHIS UNCERTAINTY THE FORECAST MAINTAINS GEORGES INTENSITY AT 100\r\nKNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/14 KNOTS.\r\nTHE STEERING OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH\r\nOF THE MID-TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN\r\n20N-30N NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GFDL MODEL IS TO THE LEFT OF OUR TRACK WHILE\r\nTHE UKMET IS WELL TO THE RIGHT.  THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE THREAT TO THE MAINLAND U.S. AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 16.9N  61.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 17.2N  63.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N  66.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 18.8N  68.3W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.6N  70.3W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  74.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\nCORRECTION...CHANGE ST THOMAS TO ST MARTIN\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGED FROM EARLIER.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION TO OVER CUBA IN 72 HOURS AND THE UKMET SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION TO JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IN 72 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS IS IN\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKM AND SLOWER.  THE LBAR IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nGFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS\r\nFORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  A\r\nWATCH WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED FOR HAITI SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECON CURRENTLY IN THE HURRICANE HAS FOUND MAX FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 93 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 967\r\nMB.  THE MAXIMUM ONE MINUTE SURFACE WINDS ARE DECREASED FROM 100 TO\r\n95 KNOTS BASED ON THE RECON DATA.  IF THE TRACK ACTUALLY GOES OVER\r\nPUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...THERE COULD BE FURTHER WEAKENING.  IF\r\nTHE TRACK STAYS OVER WATER...THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING AS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAN UNOFFICIAL REPORT HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM ANTIGUA OF 90 KNOTS\r\nSUSTAINED AND A GUST TO 101 KNOTS...SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  THE WIND AT\r\nST MARTIN PICKED UP TO 50 KNOTS AT 08Z.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 17.4N  63.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N  65.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.7N  68.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.4N  70.7W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N  72.8W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GETTING\r\nA LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER LATEST...1437Z...RECON REPORT\r\nSHOWS THE PRESSURE UP TO 971 MB.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES PUERTO RICO.  DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE INTENSITY OF GEORGES IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT\r\nTO WHICH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...\r\nAND EXTREME EASTERN CUBA.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  SEVERAL SYNOPTIC FACTORS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE COURSE OF GEORGES...THE MID-\r\nTO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nBETWEEN 20N-30N...THE INFLUENCE OF 500 MB TROUGHS IN THE MID-\r\nLATITUDE WESTERLIES ON THIS RIDGE...AND AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nCYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER CUBA.  RIGHT NOW...THE RIDGE SEEMS STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS.  THE UPPER CYCLONE...WHICH COULD TURN GEORGES MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE APPEARS TO\r\nWEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE 3-DAY MODEL RUNS...IT IS STILL\r\nNOT CLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE\r\nFROM MID-LATITUDE INFLUENCES TO EFFECT A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK NEAR\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND. \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 17.7N  64.3W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.3N  66.6W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N  69.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.8N  71.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N  73.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N  76.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A LITTLE AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION\r\nIS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A GOOD BIT OF BANDING OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH LAND...\r\nRAPID DEEPENING IS UNLIKELY BEFORE THE EYEWALL REACHES PUERTO RICO.\r\nTHERE IS STILL A HINT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...BUT\r\nTHIS APPEARS TO BE LESSENING.  LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS\r\nALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE HURRICANE.  OTHERWISE THE ONLY\r\nIMPEDIMENTS TO STRENGTHENING ARE THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE BEING HISPANIOLA.  \r\n\r\nUSING RECON FIXES...AND SMOOTHING OUT THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FROM\r\nRADAR...GIVES A CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/14 WHICH IS ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS BEFORE.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS FROM 12Z SHOW LITTLE\r\nEVIDENCE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES WILL GIVE\r\nWAY ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT BUT\r\nSTILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD...BETWEEN FORECAST POSITIONS NEAR OR JUST\r\nSOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...AS GIVEN BY DEEP- AND MEDIUM LAYER BAM AND\r\nTHE BAROTROPIC TO JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AS GIVEN BY THE\r\nU.K. MET OFFICE MODEL.  UNFORTUNATELY..THE LATTER MODELS FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING FARTHER AND FARTHER TO THE WEST WITH EACH\r\nNEW RUN.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 18.0N  65.6W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N  67.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.2N  70.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N  72.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N  74.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N  77.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO\r\nSHOWS THAT GEORGES IS STILL A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WITH A FAIRLY\r\nGOOD CENTER PRESENTATION AND ESTIMATED 100 KNOT WINDS AT 3000 FT...\r\nTHE ELEVATION OF THE RADAR SITE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD\r\nTOPS OF -80C ARE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO AT THIS TIME.\r\nSOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GEORGES TRANSVERSES PUERTO RICO\r\nTONIGHT.  SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS WITH MUCH HIGHER\r\nGUSTS MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE MOST CURRENT ANALYSES FROM\r\nTHE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KNOTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH\r\nOF GEORGES. OTHERWISE THE ONLY HINDRANCE TO STRENGTHENING ARE THE\r\nLARGER ISLANDS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES CHAIN...NAMELY HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nRADAR FIXES FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATES THAT THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IN 270/\r\n13 KNOTS.  A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED \r\nTO RESUME TUESDAY. RADAR-BASED FIXES PLACE THE CENTER OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL PORTION OF PUERTO RICO IN THE VICINITY OF PONCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF GEORGES IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SUCH\r\nTHAT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY TURN SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE 00Z TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE UKMET THE EASTERN-MOST TRACK...JUST\r\nEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS... WHILE THE GFDL IS THE WESTERN-MOST\r\nTRACK WITH A 72 HOUR POSITION JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF CUBA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE NEW TRACK FORECAST THE HURRICANE WATCHES FOR HAITI...\r\nTHE TURKS AND CACIOS ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ARE BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 18.1N  66.9W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N  68.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.4N  71.3W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 20.4N  73.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 21.3N  75.4W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  78.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON AND THE SAN JUAN RADAR SHOW A WELL DEFINED CENTER\r\nOVER WATER JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n275/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZED THE CENTER ABOUT 270 NMI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE ACTUAL CENTER.  THIS SENDS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD.\r\nALL OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE MOVES THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH LITTLE OR NO DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS\r\nAND LBAR ALL SHOW THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF FLORIDA IN THREE DAYS AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER THREE DAYS  THE NOGAPS TURNS\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  THE GFDL/AVN MODEL SHOWS A NARROW EAST/WEST RIDGE\r\nACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AT THREE DAYS.  \r\n\r\nIN ANY CASE...THE FORECAST TRACK IMPLIES A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE PRESSURE WAS 974 MB WHEN RECON WENT INTO THE CENTER AT 05Z.  AT\r\n0631Z...THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB.  PERHAPS THERE WAS SOME\r\nWEAKENING OVER PUERTO RICO BUT NOT MUCH.  AT 09Z THE WIND IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS...THE SAME AS BEFORE LANDFALL.  CONSIDERABLE\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE\r\nMOVES OVER HISPANIOLA.  BUT STRENGTHENING IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AFTER\r\nTHAT DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE TRACK GOES TO CUBA.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 18.1N  68.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.2N  70.2W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N  72.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 20.4N  74.7W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.6N  76.7W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N  80.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n\r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR FROM SAN JUAN\r\nSHOW A SPECTACULAR EYE PRESENTATION MOVING ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF\r\nTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. BOTH SATELLITE\r\nAND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT GEORGES HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nAGAIN AND SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 115 KNOTS.\r\nRECON JUST FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 962 MB AND PEAK\r\nWINDS OF 117 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 105\r\nKNOTS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI TODAY BUT HOW MUCH WEAKENING\r\nDEPENDS HOW LONG THE HURRICANE STAYS OVER LAND. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO REGAIN MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER WATER.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE HURRICANE HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE\r\nTIME FOR THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE TO EVOLVE. IF THE\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS...THE HURRICANE COULD BEGIN A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK\r\nSOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. AT THIS TIME MOST...OF THE MODELS ARE\r\nBRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY\r\n72 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE LAST PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE\r\nRIDGE COULD FORCE THE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING\r\nMAY KEEP THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE.  IN ANY CASE...WE SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE HURRICANE VERY CLOSELY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 18.3N  69.1W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 18.7N  71.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 19.8N  73.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  75.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 23.0N  77.8W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N  80.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED ITS IDENTITY IN SPITE OF MOVING\r\nOVER LAND DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IT WAS CLEARLY SEEN ON VIS AND\r\nIR SATELLITE IMAGES UNTIL RECENTLY WHEN IT HAS BEGUN TO FILL.  THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES. GEORGES IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC\r\nAND HAITI TODAY BUT HOW MUCH WEAKENING DEPENDS HOW LONG THE\r\nHURRICANE STAYS OVER LAND. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REGAIN MUCH\r\nOF ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 AND SOME DEVIATION OF\r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE\r\nHURRICANE INTERACTS WITH THE VERY HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.\r\nTHEREAFTER... ONCE OVER WATER AGAIN...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE CONTROLLED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH...WHICH IN\r\nFACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THROUGH 72 HOURS.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND BASICALLY ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nBRING GEORGES WITHIN A BELT BETWEEN HAVANA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 60\r\nHOURS OR SO.   \r\n\r\nTHE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE A\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE COULD FORCE THE HURRICANE OVER\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING\r\nOF THE RIDGE MAY KEEP THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE.  IN ANY CASE...\r\nINTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nHURRICANE VERY CLOSELY.  THE TIME FOR ISSUING A HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nA PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS IS APPROACHING.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 18.8N  70.3W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.4N  72.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.4N  74.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 21.7N  76.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N  78.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  82.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHE BIGGEST PROBLEM WE HAVE THIS EVENING IS...WHERE IS THE CENTER?\r\nTHE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...PEAKS TO NEAR 10000 FEET...HAVE\r\nDISRUPTED GEORGES.  THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT THE\r\nCENTER...ESPECIALLY ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE WILL\r\nNOT BE ABLE TO FIX THE CENTER UNTIL IT EMERGES BACK OVER THE WATER\r\nWEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE CURRENT POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE AND SCANTY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE FROM\r\nUNOFFICIAL OBSERVING SITES RELAYED BY HAM RADIO.  WITH LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...IT IS BEST NOT TO\r\nMAKE DRASTIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n290/12 AND THE BEST GUESS IS THAT THE CENTER IS NEARING THE BORDER\r\nOF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.  IT IS NOT YET CLEAR WHETHER\r\nTHE CENTER WILL EMERGE ON THE WEST OR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI.\r\n \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO BEFORE.  DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE\r\nNOAA AIRCRAFT SHOWED A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  THIS SUPPORTS A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW THIS\r\nANTICYCLONE ...AND THE MID/UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR WESTERN\r\nCUBA...EVOLVE WITH TIME.  THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM THE NUMERICAL\r\nMODELS IS THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN ADVANCE OF\r\nGEORGES AND THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE BARELY MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT\r\n2-3 DAYS.  IF THE UPPER CYCLONE MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD...AND\r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE STAYS PUT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nWOULD LIKELY RESULT.  IF THE RIDGE SHIFTS A LITTLE EASTWARD AND THE\r\nUPPER CYCLONE DOES NOT MOVE MUCH...THEN A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IS\r\nPOSSIBLE.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE THREE\r\nBAM TRACKS...WHICH ARE ALL VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.\r\n \r\nONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON OUR PRECISE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT\r\n48 AND 72 HOURS...SINCE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS MAY STILL OCCUR.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING AROUND THE COAST\r\nOF HISPANIOLA AND THEY FOUND THAT A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION STILL EXISTS.  THE INNER CORE...HOWEVER...HAS LIKELY\r\nBEEN SEVERELY DISRUPTED SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ON THIS ADVISORY ARE\r\nREDUCED SUBSTANTIALLY...TO 70 KNOTS.  GEORGES HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SIGNATURE AND WOULD CERTAINLY BE A VERY INTENSE\r\nHURRICANE AT THIS TIME...WERE IT NOT LOCATED OVER LAND.  WHEN THE\r\nCENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER...RE-INTENSIFICATION SEEMS CERTAIN...\r\nPARTICULARLY WHEN GEORGES MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE STRAITS\r\nOF FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 19.1N  71.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.7N  73.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  75.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 22.4N  77.7W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.7N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N  82.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH OF A CENTER TO TRACK ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN 6\r\nHOURS AGO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...EXCEPT LBAR AND THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL WHICH TURN GEORGES NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...APPARENTLY\r\nFINDING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT THE OTHER MODELS\r\nDO NOT SEE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF GFDL MODEL...PUTTING THE\r\nCENTER JUST OFF THE LOWER FLORIDA WEST COAST IN 72 HOURS AND IN THE\r\nFLORIDA KEYS IN 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nGFDL AND THE NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY LEFT...TO NEAR HAVANA IN 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS WHILE THE\r\nHURRICANE IS OVER LAND.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY ASSUMES THE CENTER\r\nWILL BE OVER WATER AND THAT THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION...EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE NORTH\r\nCOAST OF CUBA FOR 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SINCE\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR A WHILE.  THE CENTER IS NOT\r\nWELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE...THERE HAVE BEEN FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nAND THE RECON AIRCRAFT COULD NOT FLY INTO THE HURRICANE OVER LAND.\r\nI AM NOT PLEASED TO PUT UP A HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH\r\nSO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...BUT AM DOING SO AS A STRATEGY OF LEAST REGRET.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 19.5N  73.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 20.5N  75.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N  77.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N  79.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N  81.2W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 27.0N  83.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT GEORGES HAS\r\nMAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN IN SPITE OF THE HURRICANE\r\nHAVING MOVED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nOR MORE. THERE IS A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE\r\nWITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nHURRICANE LACKS OF AN INNER CORE AT THIS TIME.  THE ATMOSPHERE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND LAND IS THE ONLY\r\nIMPEDIMENT.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. HOWEVER...THIS IS\r\nVERY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE HURRICANE JUST MOVED OFF HAITI AND IS\r\nREFORMING. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS. ON THIS TRACK GEORGES WILL BE\r\nMOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THEREAFTER THROUGH THE\r\nFLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL ...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA OR\r\nOVER CUBAN MOUNTAINS. THAT WOULD DELAY THE STRENGTHENING BUT THE\r\nTRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS WOULD NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 19.7N  74.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N  76.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 22.4N  78.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N  80.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 25.5N  82.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  84.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":34,"Date":"1998-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT GEORGES HAS MAINTAINED A WELL\r\nDEFINED BANDING PATTERN WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER THAT\r\nRESEMBLES AN EYE.  CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE SYSTEM LACKS\r\nAN INNER CORE AND IS PROBABLY ONLY A BORDER LINE HURRICANE AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING\r\nAND LAND IS THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING WHILE INTERACTING\r\nWITH THE OROGRAPHY OF HAITI AND CUBA...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO HAVE\r\nA GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION BUT THE SYSTEM OVERALL HAS\r\nBEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AND\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.  ON THIS TRACK GEORGES\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THEREAFTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER FLORIDA STRAITS OR SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE CRITICAL ...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL MOVE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA OR\r\nOVER CUBAN MOUNTAINS. THAT WOULD DELAY THE STRENGTHENING BUT THE\r\nTRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS WOULD NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 19.8N  75.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.6N  76.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 22.0N  78.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 23.5N  80.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 25.5N  82.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  84.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":35,"Date":"1998-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nIT CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER USING SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...BUT OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT IT IS STILL INLAND OVER EASTERN\r\nCUBA.  RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM GUANTANAMO NAVY BASE ARE CONSISTENT\r\nWITH OUR ESTIMATED POSITION.  THE NOAA PLANE CANNOT LOCATE THE\r\nCENTER WHILE IT IS OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...WE ARE ALERT TO THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER MAY EMERGE ON THE NORTH COAST AT ANY\r\nTIME...AND IF IT DOES...THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO LOCATE IT. \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...295/10.  THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS ARE A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE\r\nNORTH OF GEORGES AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST\r\nTIP OF YUCATAN.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD MAINTAIN WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  OVERALL...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE CURRENT NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO\r\nFOCUS ON THIS PRECISE TRACK BECAUSE HISTORICALLY ERRORS OF 100 TO\r\n150 MILES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE 24 AND 36 HOURS POSITIONS.\r\n \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD A THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nGULF IS IMPLIED.  INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nGEORGES.\r\n \r\nON THE LARGER-SCALE...GEORGES LOOKS IMPRESSIVE WITH HEALTHY\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES AND A PICTURESQUE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN.  HOWEVER...THE INNER-CORE FEATURES REMAIN\r\nDIFFUSE... LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  ASIDE FROM\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF LAND...METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FAVOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  GEORGES IS PREDICTED TO RE-INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 2\r\nSTATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT COULD DO SO SOONER...AND GEORGES\r\nCOULD GET STRONGER THAN WE HAVE SHOWN HERE.  WE NEED TO BE COGNIZANT\r\nOF THE LIMITATIONS IN INTENSITY FORECASTING.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 20.6N  75.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N  77.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  79.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 24.6N  80.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  82.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 29.0N  84.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":36,"Date":"1998-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS STILL CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND ESTIMATING THE\r\nLOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 300/10 BASED ON LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND A\r\nPOORLY DEFINED CENTER ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ON NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT RADAR AND ON A CUBAN RADAR.\r\n \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nTHE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE LOW NEAR THE YUCATAN\r\nCHANNEL CONTINUE TO BE THE CONTROLLING FACTORS AND ARE NOT FORECAST\r\nTO CHANGE RADICALLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL...UKMET\r\nAND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CENTER MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR KEY WEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND CONTINUING TO\r\nTHE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS.  COMPARED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET CHANGED LITTLE...THE NOGAPS\r\nMOVED TO THE RIGHT AND THE GFDL MOVED SLIGHTLY LEFT.  THE LBAR IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE THREE MODELS JUST MENTIONED.  THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL TURNS GEORGES NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN FLORIDA AND\r\nTHE ETA AND NGM SHOW THIS ALSO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT\r\nAS FAR AS THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET WOULD SUGGEST.\r\n \r\nA NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND REPORT OF 74 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER OVER WATER ALLOWS FOR GEORGES TO BE KEPT AS A MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE WITH 65 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS HELD TOGETHER VERY WELL EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE APPEARS DISORGANIZED.  WITH A\r\nFORECAST OF NOT TOO MUCH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK COMBINED WITH WARM GULF WATERS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER BY 24\r\nHOURS.  IT SHOULD BE REALIZED THAT OUR SKILL IN FORECASTING\r\nINTENSITY IS QUITE LIMITED COMPARED TO OUR TRACK FORECASTING SKILL.\r\n \r\nHAVING SAID ALL THAT...IT IS PRUDENT TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING\r\nFOR EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.  I WOULD LOVE TO WAIT LONGER\r\nBEFORE ISSUING WARNINGS TO MINIMIZE SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY\r\nINVOLVED.  A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE\r\nTHAT MIGHT STRENGTHEN IS NOT THE SAME KIND OF SITUATION AS HAVING A\r\nCATEGORY 3 OR 4 HURRICANE HEADING RIGHT AT THE WARNING AREA.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 21.1N  76.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.9N  78.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 23.3N  79.9W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.8N  81.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  83.3W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 29.0N  86.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":37,"Date":"1998-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n\r\n...COR TO 72 HOUR POSITION\r\n\r\nNOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN OBSERVING GEORGES DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 989\r\nAND 991 MB. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED THAT AN EYEWALL IS FORMING.\r\nBASED ON REPORTS FROM THE PLANE AND OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nGEORGES. MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH\r\nLOW SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND OTHER CONDITIONS \r\nARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THIS PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nAS SOON AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER LATER TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH\r\nLEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SO A STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST HURRICANE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG THE\r\nMODELS THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF GEORGES SHOULD MOVE OFF CUBA\r\nTODAY AND CROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND THEN\r\nINTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RESIDENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO PAY MORE ATTENTION TO THE PROGRESS OF GEORGES.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 21.5N  77.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.5N  78.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 24.1N  80.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 25.5N  82.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.0N  84.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 29.5N  86.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":40,"Date":"1998-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n\r\n..COR TO ADV NUMBER\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES\r\nTO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...THE EYEWALL REMAINS POORLY\r\nDEFINED ON ITS NORTHWEST PORTION.  NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nMEASURED WINDS OF 85 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND 985 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 85\r\nKNOTS AT THIS TIME.  MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN LOW SHEAR OVER THE\r\nHURRICANE SO A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. GEORGES IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS BY 36 HOURS OR SO.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN \r\nUNCHANGED...SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL\r\nTRACK AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BRINGING THE\r\nCORE OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nAND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 23.8N  80.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 25.0N  82.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  84.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  85.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 29.0N  87.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 31.5N  89.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":39,"Date":"1998-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED AS IT APPROACHES THE STRAITS OF\r\nFLORIDA.  LATEST RECON REPORTS SHOWED A CLOSED WALL.  THE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS GEORGES EVENTUALLY RE-ATTAINING\r\nCATEGORY 3 STATUS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nONLY FACTORS THAT MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION ARE A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASED SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nNO BIG CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND MY SYNOPTIC REASONING IS\r\nTHE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS WELL.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A COURSE FROM WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWEST...BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nGEORGES AND A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...OVER\r\nTHE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL TRANSITION AT\r\n500 MB DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FROM A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN\r\nTO A HIGHER AMPLITUDE ONE OVER THE U.S. AND THIS COULD ALLOW A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL RUN AT 72 HOURS...AND\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE 2- TO 3-DAY TIME FRAME.\r\nAS ALWAYS...THE 3-DAY FORECAST POSITIONS ARE SUBJECT TO CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA\r\nEASTWARD SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE AND\r\nPOTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nRECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE 50-KNOT WIND\r\nRADIUS NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST...TO 125 N MI.  THIS\r\nMEANS THAT A LARGE PART OF SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD EXPERIENCE\r\nPOTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 23.2N  79.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 24.3N  81.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 25.8N  82.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 27.2N  84.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 28.5N  86.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 31.5N  88.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":41,"Date":"1998-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF GEORGES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  AN OPEN EYEWALL IS EVIDENT ON RADAR AND TO THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS.  HEAVIEST CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS...RAIN AND SURGE ARE ON THE EAST SIDE AND ARE SPREADING OVER\r\nTHE FLORIDA KEYS.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A FAINT EYE AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 105\r\nKT...WHILE SPOT WINDS MEASURED IN THE EYEWALL BY A DROPSONDE WERE AS\r\nHIGH AS 109 KT ALOFT AND 85 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE ESTIMATED\r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 90 KT BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE HIGH OVER TEXAS IS FORECAST BY THE 06Z AVN AND 00Z\r\nNOGAPS TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nTWO DAYS.  THIS PUTS GEORGES ON THE SW SIDE OF THAT FEATURE...IN A\r\nSTEERING CURRENT THAT IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONTINUED NW MOTION AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACKS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT.\r\nTHIS IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE OTHER MODEL\r\nTRACKS.\r\n \r\nTHIS POSES AN INCREASING THREAT FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE\r\nFLORIDA PANHANDLE.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW ISSUED FOR PART OF THAT\r\nAREA.\r\n \r\nCIRRUS ELEMENTS ARE NO LONGER EXPANDING OUTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST SO\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MIGHT NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE TO\r\nFURTHER  STRENGTHENING AS EARLIER.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY\r\nSCHEMES SHOW A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE WIND...NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS\r\nSHOWN IN THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 24.3N  81.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.3N  83.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 26.7N  85.3W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 28.1N  86.7W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 29.6N  87.9W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 33.0N  88.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":42,"Date":"1998-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nWHILE RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST IS CURRENTLY NOT AVAILABLE...THE \r\nEYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS FALLEN A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. RECENTLY...DRY\r\nTORTUGAS HAD 976.3 MB WITH 18 KT WINDS...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS\r\nANALYZED AS 975 MB.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KT.  THE\r\nHEADING HAS BEEN 300/12 KT FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT A RETURN TO A NW\r\nMOTION SHOULD RESUME SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nTHE 12Z NOGAPS FORECAST FOR THE LARGE-SCALE EVOLUTION RESEMBLES\r\nPREVIOUS RUNS WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSTATES DRIVING GEORGES TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LONG-RANGE\r\nFORECASTERS AT THE NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER HAVE\r\nINDICATED A POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT SLOWING NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH OUTPUT FROM THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nRUNS AND BAM...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nMOVEMENT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nWITH RADAR DATA CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE FROM KEY WEST AND GEORGES SOON\r\nTO MOVE OUT OF RANGE OF THE MIAMI RADAR...THE NHC WILL RETURN TO 3-\r\nHOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES AND DISCONTINUE HOURLY POSITION\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING OR EARLY IN\r\nTHE MORNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 24.9N  82.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N  84.4W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 27.3N  86.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 28.8N  87.7W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 30.1N  88.2W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 32.5N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":43,"Date":"1998-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nRADAR AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING\r\nTHE LAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGES HAS\r\nBEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RADAR POSITION\r\nESTIMATE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE RESUMING A MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nRECON DATA INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN \r\nGEORGES INTENSITY THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO.  THE LATEST AIRCRAFT\r\nVORTEX MESSAGE SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB AND MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS.  THE DRY TORTUGAS C-MAN BUOY\r\nREPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 50 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 989.9 MB\r\nAT 01Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 90 KNOTS.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT REMAINS IMPRESSIVE ELSEWHERE.  ANALYSES \r\nFROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES\r\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW SOME 20-30 KT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST/CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THE \r\nRIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH GEORGES SHOULD LESSEN THE SHEAR AS IT BUILDS\r\nNORTHWARD IT STILL MAY HAMPER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES THE TREND OF GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BRINGING GEORGES TO\r\nCATEGORY THREE STATUS BY 36 HOURS.      \r\n\r\nTHE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SCATTER WITH\r\nLBAR...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOWING A 72 HOUR POSITION SOUTH OF THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST WHILE THE GFDL...AVN AND A98E ARE INLAND BETWEEN\r\nALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND AVN\r\nINDICATE THAT GEORGES ROTATES AROUND THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE TO \r\nTHE EAST.  THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATES THAT THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION MAY SLOW. \r\n\r\nTHE NOAA G-IV JET IS PERFORMING A SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH THE DATA TO BE USED TO INITIALIZE\r\nTHE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS.  \r\n\r\nWARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA OF THE\r\nNORTH GULF COAST SATURDAY. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 24.9N  83.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.4N  84.9W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 27.7N  87.9W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 29.0N  88.6W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":44,"Date":"1998-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WIND OR PRESSURE PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH GEORGES. MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 974 MB AND\r\nPEAK WINDS ARE ABOUT 90 KNOTS. THE INNER CORE HAS NOT REFORMED\r\nCOMPLETELY YET SINCE IT WAS DISRUPTED BY LAND.  HOWEVER...IT USUALLY\r\nTAKES TIME FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO RECOVER FROM THE INTERACTION\r\nWITH LAND.  ONE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL\r\n...SHIPS...DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AND THE GFDL IS NOT\r\nSHOWING THE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION WHICH IT NORMALLY FORECASTS. \r\nTHIS SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE SOME FACTORS INHIBITING THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BECAUSE MOST OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN LOW SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WATER IS WARM...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/08.  THERE IS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS\r\nWOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.\r\nHOWEVER...MODELS...MAINLY THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE FORECASTING A\r\nTRACK MORE TO THE WEST AND BOTH KEEP THE HURRICANE MOVING ALONG THE\r\nLOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS COASTS. THE GFDL SLOWS DOWN THE\r\nHURRICANE CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A SMALL\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY IF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSHOW A WESTWARD TREND AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH.  \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 25.5N  84.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 25.9N  85.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 27.1N  87.3W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 28.0N  88.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 29.0N  89.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 30.0N  90.0W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":45,"Date":"1998-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A NOAA BUOY AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOW A RATHER\r\nASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AT THIS TIME WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS\r\nCONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A MUCH LONGER EXTENT OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THAT DIRECTION.  LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS ANALYZED AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AGAIN ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 90\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE TRACK HAS EDGED TOWARD THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nFORECASTS...THE FINAL CENTER FIX FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE HEADING HAS EASED BACK TO 300 DEGREES AT\r\n10 KT.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANTICYCLONE\r\nSHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND A TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN STATES.  THIS TROUGH\r\nPASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF GEORGES AND THE TRAILING DEVELOPING RIDGE\r\nCOULD SLOW OR BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD AS GEORGES APPROACHES LAND.  THE TRACK MODELS GENERALLY SHOW\r\nTHIS SLOWING...BUT THEIR SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS FOR THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE TO LOUISIANA AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW ISSUED FROM\r\nMORGAN CITY TO PANAMA CITY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...GEORGES IS LIKELY TO POSE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT FLOOD DANGER DUE TO BOTH STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 26.1N  85.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.9N  87.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 28.2N  88.4W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 29.0N  89.1W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.9N  89.6W   100 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  90.0W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":46,"Date":"1998-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nFOR THE VULNERABLE AREAS IN THE WARNED ZONE...PARTICULARLY AROUND\r\nNEW ORLEANS AND ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...GEORGES IS\r\nPOSING AN INCREASING AND UNUSUALLY SEVERE FLOOD THREAT FROM A\r\nCOMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE.  MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW GEORGES SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.\r\nTHE GFDL RUN FROM 12Z IS NOW AVAILABLE AND IT IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO\r\nOUR PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  OTHER GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED\r\nSOMEWHAT ALONG THAT TRACK AS WELL..SO NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN\r\nMADE TO THE NHC TRACK.  A SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN IS AGAIN EXPECTED AS\r\nGEORGES TEMPORARILY BECOMES TRAPPED IN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME\r\nBETWEEN THE HIGH TO BE CENTERED TO THE SE OVER FLORIDA...AND ANOTHER\r\nHIGH DEVELOPING TO THE NW OF GEORGES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nWITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW HAVING REACHED 5.5...OR 102 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND A 968 MB PRESSURE AND 92 KT AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL...BUT AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SHOWED 95 KT AT THE SURFACE. \r\nTHE MOST RECENT HRD ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 70 KT.  THESE DATA SHOW\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED IN DETERMINING THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE\r\nCURRENT NHC ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...UPPER END OF CATEGORY 2.  A LITTLE\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 26.6N  86.2W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 27.1N  87.2W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 28.1N  88.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 28.9N  89.3W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 29.7N  89.7W   100 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 30.5N  90.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":47,"Date":"1998-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON FIX GIVES A MOTION OF 310/09 FOR THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS...COMPARED TO 305/09 ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE PAST 6 HOUR\r\nMOTION IS 315/09.\r\n \r\nTHE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...AGAIN.   ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE\r\nEAST...NORTH...AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE 12Z UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS SHOW A 72 HOUR POSITION JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CENTRAL\r\nLOUISIANA COAST.  THE LBAR 72 HOUR POSITION IS IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA\r\nAND THE GFDL 72 HOUR POSITION IS IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...BASED ON THE 18Z AVIATION RUN IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS\r\nPREVIOUS RUN.  THE AVIATION MODEL IS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND IS\r\nSOMEWHAT LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN.\r\n \r\nIN SUMMARY...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE REACHING\r\nNEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND\r\nSLOWING DOWN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL...EXCEPT\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON FIX HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB...NO CHANGE\r\nFROM EARLIER.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN ELLIPTICAL SHAPED EYE AT\r\n2325Z AND THEN NO EYE AT 0113Z.  HOWEVER SATELLITE SHOWS AN EYE\r\nFEATURE FORMING AND KEVX EGLIN RADAR SHOWS EVIDENCE OF AN EYE\r\nAT ABOUT 200 MILES RANGE.  THE LATEST HRD SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE\r\nWIND SPEED UP 5 KNOTS TO 75 KNOTS.  THE MAXIMUM AIRCRAFT WIND SPEED\r\nWAS 86 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THAT\r\nTHE PREVIOUS RECON MISSION.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED AND FORECAST IS\r\nKEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR BRINGING THE\r\nWINDS DOWN SOME MORE AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST A\r\nLITTLE FURTHER INLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE PROVIDES AN OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR EXTREMELY LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF\r\nONSHORE WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  THE GFDL MODEL PROJECTS\r\nSOME 32 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 27.3N  86.8W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 28.1N  87.8W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.8N  88.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 29.4N  89.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  90.0W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  90.0W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":48,"Date":"1998-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF GEORGES HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS LOW BUT...AT THIS STAGE...THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH\r\nFOR THE HURRICANE TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.  IT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN\r\nMOST OF THE HURRICANE INTENSITY CHANGE WORKSHOPS...THAT...FOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THERE SHOULD BE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE\r\nAND/OR A TROUGH INTERACTION.  THESE TWO PROCESSES ARE VERY DIFFICULT\r\nTO EVALUATE...BUT WITH THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INFORMATION...NONE OF\r\nTHE ABOVE PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR BECAUSE THE INGREDIENTS ARE\r\nNOT PRESENT.  THERE IS NOT A PERSISTENT AND WELL DEFINED INNER\r\nCORE...NO DOUBLE EYE STRUCTURE EITHER AND THERE IS NO UPPER-TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE HURRICANE.  ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nTHEN FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS IS AN ARRESTED FORECAST BECAUSE\r\nTHE ABOVE PROCESSES ARE STILL IN THEORY AND HAVE NOT BEEN TRANSLATED\r\nINTO OPERATIONAL TOOLS YET.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/09.  THE STEERING PATTERN IS EVOLVING AS\r\nFORECAST.  THEREFORE...NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS NECESSARY.   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL.  THIS MEANS\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE WOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND COULD PRODUCE\r\nEXTREMELY LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF\r\nONSHORE WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  GEORGES IS A VERY SERIOUS\r\nTHREAT AND IT COULD BE EVEN WORSE IF THE HURRICANE STRENGTHENS MORE\r\nTHAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 28.1N  87.6W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 28.7N  88.6W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 29.4N  89.3W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  90.0W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 30.5N  90.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 31.0N  90.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":49,"Date":"1998-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED\r\nA MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 963 MB FROM A GPS DROPSONDE WITH\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 86 KNOTS.  BUOY 42040 REPORTED A \r\n45 KT 8-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND...APPROXIMATELY 55 KT 1-MINUTE WIND\r\nSPEED...AND 33 FOOT SEAS AT 12Z WHILE THE C-MAN BUOY NEAR THE MOUTH\r\nOF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WAS 39 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nHELD AT 95 KNOTS.  THIS KEEPS GEORGES ON THE HIGH END OF CATEGORY\r\nTWO STATUS.  THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR GEORGES TO STRENGTHEN \r\nTO A CATEGORY THREE BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE WIND DATA ABOVE...RECON WIND PLOTS AND HURRICANE\r\nRESEARCH DIVISION...HRD...ANALYSES THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nADJUSTED.  THE PRIMARY CHANGE IS THE ADDITION OF HURRICANE-FORCE\r\nWINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  \r\n\r\nFIXES FROM RECON AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SUGGEST\r\nA SLIGHT SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/07.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REGARDING\r\nTHE TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES. A\r\nGRADUAL SLOWDOWN IS FORECAST AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN.  THUS...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD PRODUCE EXTREMELY\r\nLARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS COMBINED WITH A LONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS\r\nAND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  GEORGES IS A VERY SERIOUS THREAT AND IT\r\nCOULD BE EVEN WORSE IF THERE IS FURTHER STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 28.4N  88.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 28.9N  88.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 29.6N  89.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  89.9W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 30.8N  89.9W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":50,"Date":"1998-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION 27/2100Z...\r\n\r\nTHE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF GEORGES FROM THE NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE RADAR IN NEW ORLEANS HAS BEEN RATHER POOR THE LAST\r\n6 HOURS OR SO WITH A 50 PERCENT OPEN EYE WALL.  THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN REPORTING A SIMILAR EYE\r\nSTATE WITH THE OPENING ROTATING FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTHWEST  TO\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE OPENING HAS BEEN OCCURRING ON THE OPPOSITE SIDE \r\nTHE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  THE LATEST RECON...1935Z...NOW REPORTS \r\nA CLOSED EYE WALL AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 85 KT ALTHOUGH A GPS DROPSONDE\r\nRECORDED A 100 KT WIND AT 952 MB.  WITH NO DATA TO THE CONTRARY THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT...AND WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE\r\nAND GEORGES COULD REACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN NEW ORLEANS\r\nSHOW THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS...34 KT...AT 18Z.  DAUPHIN\r\nISLAND C-MAN BUOY RECENTLY REPORTED A 58 MPH SUSTAINED WIND OVER \r\n2 MINUTES WITH A PEAK GUST TO HURRICANE FORCE.  BUOY 42040 IS\r\nREPORTING 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE A 969.8\r\nMB PRESSURE AND SEAS TO 36 FEET.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUSING THE MOST CURRENT SURFACE REPORTS AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE AND HOURLY RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nBEEN SHOWING SOME WOBBLE IN THE CENTER LOCATION THE 6-HOURLY MOTION\r\nIS NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07 KT.  A\r\nGRADUAL DECELERATION IS STILL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS  \r\nAS ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING COLLAPSES. THE 18Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE FIRST 24 \r\nTO 36 HOURS WITH BEND TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.  NOGAPS\r\nIS THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION WHICH MOVES GEORGES WESTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE CONSEQUENCES OF THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE COULD BE COPIOUS \r\nRAINFALL IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA AS WELL AS A PROLONGED \r\nLONG PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS AND STORM SURGE FLOODING.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF PANAMA CITY TO ST. MARKS FLORIDA WILL\r\nBE LOWERED.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 29.0N  88.5W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 29.5N  89.1W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  89.6W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 30.5N  89.7W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  89.6W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 32.0N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":51,"Date":"1998-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...BUT THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION AVERAGES\r\nOUT TO 335/06 AND THE 6 HOUR MOTION IS ONLY 4 KNOTS.  THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...AGAIN...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND SHOWS THE\r\nHURRICANE TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO THE EAST AND WEST.\r\nTHE UKMET...GFDL...AND LBAR...ALL SHOW VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION AND IS THEN SLOWED DOWN EVEN MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS AND THEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...BUT VERY SLOW AVERAGING\r\nABOUT 3 KNOTS.  SO AT 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS A PARTIAL\r\nLEFT TURN OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nIN ANY CASE...THE SLOW MOTION ALLOWS FOR LOTS OF RAIN...THE GFDL\r\nMODEL SHOWS A MAX OF 62 INCHES OVER EASTERN LOUISIANA.  THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY EXCESSIVE...BUT IS INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS\r\nFRESH WATER FLOODING.  COMBINE THIS WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PILING\r\nUP THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE COAST.  WE ARE TALKING SERIOUS FLOOD\r\nPOTENTIAL.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED 5 KNOTS TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON HRD WIND\r\nFIELD ANALYSES...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 961 MB.\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 29.5N  88.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 29.9N  88.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  89.2W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  89.6W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 30.8N  89.6W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":52,"Date":"1998-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OR TRACK\r\nFORECASTS.  GEORGES IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 OR 36\r\nHOURS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL KEEPS THE HURRICANE BASICALLY IN THE SAME\r\nAREA THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND KEEPS GEORGES DRIFTING ONE A GENERAL NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE 3 DAYS.  THE SLOW MOTION ALLOWS FOR LOTS\r\nOF RAIN AND THIS IS INDICATIVE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUS\r\nFRESH WATER FLOODING.  COMBINE THIS WITH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS PILING\r\nUP THE GULF WATERS ALONG THE COAST.  WE ARE TALKING SERIOUS FLOOD\r\nPOTENTIAL.\r\n \r\nBOTH NOOA AND AIR FORCE PLANE HAVE BEEN IN THE EYE OF GEORGES AND\r\nTHE MINIMUM PRESSURES WERE 960 AND 964 MB RESPECTIVELY. A DROP IN\r\nTHE EYEWALL RECORDED 101 KNOTS AT THE 920 MB LEVEL AND THIS\r\nCOINCIDES WITH DOPPLER WINDS FROM NEW ORLEANS RADAR.  SATELLITE \r\nSHOWS A WELL DEFINED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE REMAINS WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 90 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES\r\nOVER LAND.\r\n\r\nBILOXI MISSISSIPPI JUST REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 126 MPH. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 30.2N  88.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  89.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 30.6N  89.3W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  89.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 31.5N  89.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 32.0N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georges","Adv":53,"Date":"1998-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n \r\nGEORGES HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT ENOUGH OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION AND CORE HAS MOVED OVER LAND SO THAT WEAKENING IS\r\nOCCURRING.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY\r\nOVER LAND.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT THE\r\nGFDL MODEL KEEPS GEORGES MEANDERING NOT FAR FROM WHERE IT IS\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...BUT OTHER MODELS\r\nSUCH AS THE BAROTROPIC...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND THE DEEP BAM\r\nMOVE GEORGES NEAR TO OR EAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN 72\r\nHOURS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND...PESSIMISTICALLY...KEEPS GEORGES OVER SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI\r\nDURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...WITH A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION LATER.  OF COURSE IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nMAY MAKE CONTACT WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BE CARRIED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER NORTHEAST OR EAST THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT...HUGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED. \r\nADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 20 TO 30 INCHES ARE INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWARNINGS WILL BE KEPT UP ON THE COAST AS WINDS ARE STILL FAIRLY\r\nSTRONG. HOWEVER THE STORM SURGE SHOULD BE DECREASING.\r\n\r\nPASCH \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 30.4N  89.0W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 30.4N  89.4W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 30.7N  89.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  89.5W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N  89.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":54,"Date":"1998-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nA 60-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER\r\nLAND...A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRADAR SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT...SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH..3 KNOTS\r\nOR SO.  THE LATEST AVN MODEL RUN SUGGESTS ENOUGH OF A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ALLOW GEORGES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE NOGAPS SHOWS LITTLE MOTION.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT STILL HAS GEORGES LINGERING ABOUT OVER ALABAMA IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS.  GUIDANCE SUCH AS LBAR AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nMOVE GEORGES MUCH FARTHER TO EAST-NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM GEORGES IS SHIFTING TO THAT OF HEAVY\r\nPRECIPITATION AND SEVERE LOCAL STORMS.  OBVIOUSLY...THE MAGNITUDE OF\r\nFRESHWATER FLOODING DEPENDS ON HOW SLOWLY THE SYSTEM MOVES DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH GEORGES HAS BEEN INLAND SINCE THIS MORNING...BECAUSE OF\r\nITS SIZE AND SLOW MOVEMENT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLY\r\nSTILL OCCURRING OVER A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE.  THEREFORE THE\r\nHURRICANE WARNING IS BEING CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nEFFECTIVE AT 21Z.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 30.8N  88.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 31.1N  88.7W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 31.7N  88.4W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 32.0N  87.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 32.3N  87.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 32.5N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":55,"Date":"1998-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n \r\nTHE MOBILE RADAR SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGES HAS MOVED IN A\r\nSMALL CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE PAST 8 TO 10 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD NOT BE\r\nTOO SURPRISING AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING VERY\r\nLITTLE MOTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 160/04.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nTHE LBAR AND AVIATION MODEL AS WELL AS A STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nMOVE GEORGES MOSTLY EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND OFF THE EAST COAST\r\nIN 72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS TRACK IS SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24\r\nHOURS AND THEN LOSES THE CIRCULATION.  THE UKMET SHOWS VERY LITTLE\r\nMOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND THE GFDL SHOWS SLOW SOUTHEAST TO EASTWARD\r\nMOTION TO OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW MOSTLY EASTWARD DRIFT FOR\r\n72 HOURS AS A KIND OF CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nA REPORT OF 39 KNOT SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FROM HURBURT FIELD IN THE\r\nFLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG WITH 35 TO 50 KNOT WINDS FROM THE MOBILE\r\nRADAR SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 1000 FT OR SO ELEVATION IS THE BASIS\r\nFOR KEEPING GEORGES AS A TROPICAL STORM.  AND IT MAY REMAIN SO FOR A\r\nWHILE LONGER IF THE CENTER DRIFTS BACK OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 30.5N  88.9W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 30.3N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 30.3N  88.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 30.4N  87.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  87.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 30.7N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georges","Adv":56,"Date":"1998-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR INDICATE THAT GEORGES IS WEAKENING.\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE AT ABOUT 2 MB PER HOUR THROUGH THE EARLY\r\nMORNING HOURS.  THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW PATCHES OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AS\r\nINDICATED BY SHIP LAVD4 AT 06Z AND A FEW COASTAL OBSERVATIONS SINCE\r\nTHEN...SO 35 KT IS THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nGEORGES BROKE OUT OF ITS SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS NOW HEADING\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nCONTINUED ENE TO E MOTION AND IS SIMILAR TO A CLUSTER OF MODEL\r\nFORECAST TRACKS.  \r\n\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING PERSISTS AS SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES A RE-SLOWING...IMPLYING THAT WESTERLIES MIGHT NOT\r\nPICK UP GEORGES...OR ITS REMNANTS...FOR A FEW DAYS.  FOR EXAMPLE...\r\nTHE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOPS WHILE THE UKMET HAS A\r\nSMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP.  THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK FOR\r\nFLOODING IS EAST OF THE CENTER...WHERE STRONG BANDS OF SHOWERS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP.  MEANWHILE...THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME ALMOST DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 30.8N  88.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 30.8N  87.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 30.9N  86.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 31.1N  84.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 31.3N  84.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  82.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georges","Adv":57,"Date":"1998-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGES DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998\r\n\r\nGEORGES HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SUSTAINED WINDS APPEAR TO\r\nHAVE FINALLY FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN INLAND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...SO FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY.\r\n\r\nGEORGES HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND 5 KNOTS...AND\r\nA CONTINUED SLOW MOTION IS PREDICTED.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL EMERGE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nIF THIS HAPPENS...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR REGENERATION.  ANOTHER\r\nPOSSIBILITY IS THAT GEORGES REMNANTS COULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT\r\nTHAT IS LIKELY TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST THURSDAY EVENING.\r\n\r\nTHE THREAT OF VERY HEAVY RAINS AND TORNADOES ASSOCIATED WITH GEORGES\r\nCONTINUES.  RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG BANDS OF CONVECTION\r\nPERSISTING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND\r\nGEORGIA.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nGEORGES...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN STORM SUMMARIES THAT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON...STARTING AT\r\nNOON CDT...UNDER WMO HEADER WWUS37 KWBC AND AFOS HEADER NFDSCCNS2. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 31.1N  87.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 31.2N  87.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 31.4N  86.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 31.7N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE MANY SATELLITE EXPERTS OUT THERE...AND WE KNOW THAT THEY\r\nARE SAYING THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEW DEPRESSION\r\nIN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT THE TYPICAL ONE...OF COURSE IT IS NOT.\r\nHOWEVER...A COUPLE OF AN AIR FORCE PLANES HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING\r\nTHE AREA TODAY AND FOUND A VERY TIGHT AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nWITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  THERE ARE ALSO\r\nCLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT\r\nAT THIS TIME TO DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO A LARGE UPPER-\r\nLOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  MODELS ARE FORECASTING\r\nTHAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL WEAKEN AND THAT WOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION\r\nTO STRENGTHEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/04. A GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN\r\nNORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE UPPER LOW.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS TURN THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH. \r\n\r\nTRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT\r\nTHIS TIME FROM SARGENT TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA. THIS LARGE\r\nAREA HAS BEEN CHOSEN DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nAVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 26.8N  92.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 26.8N  92.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 27.5N  93.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 29.0N  93.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 30.5N  93.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 33.0N  90.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 17 1998\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED A SOUTHWEST MOVEMENT\r\nOF ABOUT 5 KT THIS EVENING.  THIS MOTION AND THE TRACK OVER THE PAST\r\n24-36 HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE TD IS SLOWLY ORBITING AROUND THE\r\nBROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nWHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nCLEARLY DEPICTS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THAT CIRCULATION\r\nCENTERED NEAR 24N90W.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY QUESTION FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS...AT WHAT POINT AND\r\nTIME WILL THE TD BE RELEASED FROM THE GRIP OF THE UPPER LOW?  THE\r\n18Z AVN WEAKENS THE UPPER LOW AND MOVES IT TO SE LA BY ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.  THE 12Z NOGAPS OPENS THE LOW NEAR THE TX/LA COAST IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS.  EITHER OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS WOULD IMPLY THAT A NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT COULD BE UNDERWAY IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  HENCE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE TRACK OF THE TD COULD FOLLOW A CUSP OR SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP IN\r\nTHE INTERIM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOESNT GET SO FANCY.  IT SHOWS\r\nLITTLE MOVEMENT FOR 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nOR NORTHEASTWARD HEADING.\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE AND A 37 KT WIND WAS REPORTED AT\r\n1500 FEET FROM THE RECON PLANE.  HENCE...THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS AGAIN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 26.4N  92.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 26.2N  92.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 26.6N  92.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 27.3N  92.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 28.7N  92.3W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST\r\nMOVEMENT OF ABOUT 4 KT DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THIS MOTION AND\r\nTHE TRACK OVER THE PAST 24-36 HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE TD IS SLOWLY\r\nORBITING AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS CENTERED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST AND WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THAT\r\nCIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 25N91W.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE NEXT 6-12\r\nHOURS AND THAN A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS REMAINED ABOUT CONSTANT AND MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED\r\nFROM THE RECON HAVE BEEN IN THE 25 TO 33 KT RANGE. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nAPPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nAGAIN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 25.4N  92.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 25.1N  93.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N  93.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 25.8N  93.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 27.7N  93.9W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 32.6N  91.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A TIGHT CENTER OF 999 MB...3 DEGREES\r\nWARMER THAN THE ENVIRONMENT.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE\r\n38 KNOTS WHICH INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nAT THIS TIME BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX. THEREFORE...THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. \r\n  \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD BUT WITH THE APPROACHING MID TO\r\nUPPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST... A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST\r\nIS FORECAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHIS TRACK REQUIRES AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 26.1N  92.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 26.5N  92.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 27.5N  92.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 28.8N  91.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 31.0N  90.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH\r\nSTRUCTURE AND INTENSITY BUT SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A WELL DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE FOR STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME BUT ONLY\r\nA SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. NO CHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 OR SO.  THEREAFTER...WE\r\nARE FORECASTING THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT A GENERAL\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD TRACK SHOULD BEGIN ON SATURDAY AS A MID-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 26.0N  92.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 26.0N  92.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 27.5N  92.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  91.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 34.5N  84.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 1998\r\n \r\nNO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS AVAILABLE FOR THE 00Z FIX...BUT THE\r\nLAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL EXPOSED CENTER\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARDS.  DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES TO BURST OVER A SMALL AREA NEARLY A DEGREE OR TWO\r\nNORTHEAST OF THIS CENTER.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS.  THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUSLY.\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 06Z FIX.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY...EXCEPTING THE SMALL\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EFFECTIVELY\r\nSTATIONARY THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE MOVING NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST.  THIS MOTION IS FORECAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...LOCATED PRESENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS...MOVES EASTWARD.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 25.8N  92.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 25.8N  92.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 27.1N  91.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 28.5N  91.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 30.1N  90.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 34.6N  85.1W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION...POSSIBLE NEW CENTER POSITION 26.5N 91.8W\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT AS A VERY WEAK VORTEX WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nHIGHEST WINDS WERE NEARLY 40 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL NEAR THE\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED SOME 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST OVER A SMALL AREA NEARLY TWO TO THREE\r\nDEGREES NORTHEAST OF THIS CENTER.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT ...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS AND THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS FOR ALL PERIODS EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE LAST WHERE 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST OVER LAND.  IF THIS SHEARING\r\nCONTINUES...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REGAIN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND ATTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT ALL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...EXCEPTING THE SMALL\r\nEAST SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EFFECTIVELY\r\nSTATIONARY THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE MOVING NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST.  THIS MOTION IS FORECAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...LOCATED PRESENTLY OVER WEST TEXAS...MOVES EASTWARD.  IF THE\r\nSYSTEM FAILS TO REGAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WILL\r\nBE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nAFTER THE ABOVE DISCUSSION WAS WRITTEN THE RECONN AIRCRAFT FOUND\r\nANOTHER CENTER NEAR 26.5N 91.8W.  IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CENTER\r\nMOVED 60NM IN 2 HOURS BUT SINCE THIS CENTER IS SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...A NEW CENTER MAYBE FORMING.  IN ANY CASE...IF\r\nTRUE...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR THIS NEW\r\nCENTER AND THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION IS STILL COVERED BY THE WATCH\r\nAREA.  FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOULD CLARIFY THIS\r\nSITUATION.  \r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 25.7N  91.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 25.7N  91.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 27.1N  91.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 28.7N  90.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 30.9N  89.4W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n\r\nRECON FOUND 56 KNOTS AND FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND\r\nA SHIP...XCMG...REPORTED 33 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  A\r\nPLATFORM...S58...REPORTED 40-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT AN ELEVATION OF\r\n120 FEET.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nHERMINE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 40 KNOTS.  THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW\r\nMORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE CENTER IS\r\nNEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS STILL EVIDENT.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nFIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND AND THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 020/8.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS.  THIS STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CARRY THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM INLAND OVER THE WARNING AREA.  OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...ASIDE FROM THE UK MET AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH KEEP\r\nHERMINE OVER WATER...MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 27.9N  90.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 28.7N  90.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 30.0N  89.8W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 31.5N  89.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 32.0N  88.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  85.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING SINCE THIS MORNING.  IN\r\nFACT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE\r\nCONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN AREAS OF STRONGER CONVECTION. \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS AGAIN LOCATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS\r\nSHOW WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nNOT ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH TONIGHT...\r\nAFTER WHICH TIME HERMINE IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND.\r\n\r\nRECON AND SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A NORTHWARD MOTION OF 6 TO 8 KNOTS. \r\nUSING THIS MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE CENTER INLAND\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.  A MORE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TRACK...BEFORE LANDFALL...IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY SINCE\r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD BETWEEN A 340 TO 030\r\nDEGREE HEADING FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...A SMALL WESTWARD OF\r\nEXTENSION OF THE WARNING AREA WAS DONE.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 28.5N  91.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 29.5N  91.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 31.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 33.0N  89.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 35.0N  87.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  81.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HERMINE MOVED UP\r\nTO THE COAST DURING THE EVENING...AND NOW HAS NEARLY STALLED THERE. \r\nTHE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 020/3 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADAR\r\nDATA SHOW A FEW SMALL PATCHES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND THE\r\nNHC ESTIMATE IS DECREASED TO 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 22N\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD STEER HERMINE AND ITS\r\nREMNANTS TO THE NNE AND THEN THE NE.  THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOW THIS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO 10 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS FLOODING FROM RAINS AND STORM SURGE IN\r\nTHE NORMALLY VULNERABLE LOWER LYING AREAS.  BOTH PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY\r\nTO BE CONFINED TO THE AREA EAST OF THE TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY HAS BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE MADE ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 29.1N  90.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 30.1N  90.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 31.8N  89.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 33.7N  87.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 35.0N  85.3W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AT 0506Z PUT THE CENTER NEAR\r\nTHE COASTLINE.  SUBSEQUENT RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nMOVING INLAND...TOWARD THE NORTH...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 010/10 KT.  THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOW SOME BANDS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NHC ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS AT 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING AND WATCH WILL BE DISCONTINUED AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 22N\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD STEER HERMINE AND ITS\r\nREMNANTS TO THE NNE AND THEN THE NE.  THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOW THIS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS FLOODING FROM RAINS AND STORM SURGE IN\r\nTHE NORMALLY VULNERABLE LOWER LYING AREAS.  BOTH PROBLEMS ARE LIKELY\r\nTO BE CONFINED TO THE AREA EAST OF THE TRACK.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 29.8N  90.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 31.3N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 33.5N  88.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hermine","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE MOVED INLAND EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING AND IT HAS WEAKENED FURTHER. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NWS\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON.  \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 31.1N  90.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 33.0N  89.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED\r\nOFF THE AFRICAN COAST A FEW DAYS AGO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE CENTER IS UNDER THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AT THIS TIME AND THE OCEAN IS WARM\r\nENOUGH.  HOWEVER..MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A MAJOR UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN ATLANTIC WHICH COULD INDUCE\r\nSOME SHEARING. THEREFORE...ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 15.0N  32.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N  34.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N  36.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N  39.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N  42.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N  47.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nWAS LOCATED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION GIVEN THIS\r\nMORNING.  BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGES AND\r\nTHE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nLOCATION AND CURRENT MOTION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AT THIS TIME\r\nAND THE OCEAN IS WARM ENOUGH.  HOWEVER..MOST OF THE MODELS ARE\r\nDEVELOPING A MAJOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SHEARING. THEREFORE...ONLY A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST AT 10 KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A THE MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL TURN\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 15.9N  33.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N  34.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N  36.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N  38.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  41.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N  45.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED LOOKING...BUT IT CONTINUES TO BE\r\nRATHER PERSISTENT NEAR THE SUSPECTED CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS...WHICH UPGRADES TD9 TO TROPICAL STORM IVAN. \r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB. A MODEST AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...BUT SHEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12.  CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.  IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS MORE\r\nTHAN EXPECTED...IS WOULD LIKELY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH IN\r\nRESPONSE TO DEEPER LAYER STEERING.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 16.9N  34.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 17.7N  35.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.8N  38.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 19.9N  40.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N  42.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.0N  45.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nA SHEARING PATTERN CONTINUES TO INHIBIT THE STRENGTHENING OF IVAN. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH IT IS RAGGED IN\r\nAPPEARANCE AND IS REFLECTED IN THE T-NUMBERS WHICH ARE\r\n2.0/2.5/2.0...SO THAT IVAN IS A BORDER LINE TROPICAL STORM. THE\r\nINITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nWEAKENING TO DEPRESSION INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS IN LINE WITH FORECAST\r\nOF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RETURN BACK\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 72 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS REDUCED.  BOTH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS ALSO SUPPORT THIS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 295/12.  THE MODEL TRACK\r\nFORECASTS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TAKE\r\nTHE SYSTEM NORTHWEST...BUT WITH VARYING SPEEDS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS NHC AND HPC INPUT AND IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 17.4N  35.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N  36.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N  38.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 20.5N  39.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  41.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N  45.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nA MODERATE SHEARING PATTERN PERSISTS WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE WESTERN PART OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  THE INITIAL HEADING IS ADJUSTED TO 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT.\r\n \r\nAN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM 30N TO SOUTHWEST OF\r\nIVAN IS INDUCING THE CURRENT SHEAR.  IF THE DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE IS\r\nGREAT ENOUGH IT WILL TURN THE STORM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH IN TIME\r\nWITH THE SHEAR POTENTIALLY DECREASING.  ALTERNATELY...IF IT IS\r\nRATHER SHALLOW...THEN IVAN COULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST BUT BECOME EVEN MORE SHEARED.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAND THE NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SUGGESTING A NW\r\nMOTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 18.8N  36.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.9N  37.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  39.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.9N  40.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 24.5N  42.6W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  45.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nIVAN CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BUT APPLICATION\r\nOF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...WHICH ALLOWS FOR THAT PATTERN...SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE HEADING APPEARS TO HAVE EASED OVER TO 320/10 KT.  MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THAT TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE TRACKS DIVERGE WITH HEADINGS FROM WNW TO NE SHOWN. \r\nTHE ENTIRE RANGE IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON WHETHER THE UPPER TROUGH\r\nAHEAD OF IVAN DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW OR REMAINS AN ELONGATED BUT\r\nOPEN FEATURE.\r\n\r\nSLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 19.3N  36.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.4N  37.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.9N  38.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 23.6N  40.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 25.2N  41.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  44.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHEARED PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF\r\nIVAN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nDEVELOP IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM MAY\r\nENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ...SO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KNOTS.  THE\r\nFUTURE TRACK WILL DEPEND...IN PART...ON HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMES.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT\r\nIF IVAN BECOMES STRONGER THAN FORECAST THE ACTUAL TRACK MAY BE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT AND IF IT BECOMES SHEARED...THE ACTUAL TRACK MAY BE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 20.2N  36.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.4N  37.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.0N  39.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 24.5N  40.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  41.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 29.5N  43.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SHEARED PATTERN WITH THE\r\nCENTER OF IVAN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nDEVELOP IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM MAY\r\nENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ...SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 11 KNOTS. AN\r\nANALYSIS OF THE DIFFERENT FORECAST MODELS SHOWS THAT THE LBAR AND\r\nBAMD HAVE BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST FOR THE PAST SIX FORECAST CYCLES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS AND CONTINUES\r\nTO SLOWLY RECURVE THE STORM TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 21.4N  36.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 23.1N  36.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 24.9N  36.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 26.6N  35.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 27.8N  34.8W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 29.0N  32.8W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nIVAN HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 20 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A\r\n12-HOUR MOTION ESTIMATED AT 355/14 KT.   THE INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF IVAN BEING CAUGHT IN THE CIRCULATION\r\nAROUND THE UPPER-LOW CUTTING OFF TO THE SSW.  \r\n\r\nTHERE ARE TWO PRIMARY POSSIBILITIES FOR THE FUTURE TRACK.  AS THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW ENDS...SOME DECELERATION AND A TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NW ARE POSSIBLE.  THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND\r\nBAMS ALL SHOW THIS.  MEANWHILE...THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nCONTINUING RECURVATURE.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS BACK A LITTLE\r\nTOWARD THE FORMER OPTION AS...AT THE MOMENT..THIS SEEMS TO BE MOST\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AND EXPECTED\r\nEVOLUTION.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL THE CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE S\r\nOR SSE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...LITTLE\r\nCHANGE WILL BE SHOWN FOR THE WIND SPEED.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 23.6N  36.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 25.6N  37.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 26.8N  37.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 28.4N  37.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.2N  37.9W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 33.0N  37.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nAS EXPECTED...A NNW MOTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nWITH THE TURN BACK TO THE LEFT MOST LIKELY INDUCED BY THE UPPER LOW\r\nTHAT HAS CUTOFF JUST TO THE SOUTH.  ANOTHER VORTMAX IS VISIBLE IN\r\nTHE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NW...AND THIS COULD HELP TURN IVAN TO\r\nTHE NORTH AGAIN.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE NNW MOTION\r\nCONTINUING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SOME MODELS STILL SHOW A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL TRACK\r\nTO THE WEST WITH DISSIPATION DOESNT SEEM TOO REASONABLE AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL CLOUD FEATURES WRAPPED UP A LITTLE TODAY AND THE EFFECT\r\nOF SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISHED.  AN FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS\r\nEVIDENT IN VISIBLE PICTURES AT 1715 AND 1745 UTC.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THE ESTIMATES FROM\r\nSATELLITE ANALYSTS.  GRADUAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IS POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 24.7N  37.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 26.4N  38.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 28.0N  39.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 29.9N  39.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N  39.6W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 34.0N  39.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH\r\nLITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE SYSTEM.  THUS...\r\nITS DIFFICULT TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE SATELLITE-BASED \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY SCHEME.  IN FACT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME SUBTROPICAL-\r\nTYPE CHARACTERISTICS.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB SHOW A WEAKENING TREND\r\nOVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED \r\nTO 45 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY \r\nIS DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND IS SHEARING THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY \r\nWILL BE HELD AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME\r\nEXTRA-TROPICAL BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 330/12 KNOTS.  THE PRIMARY\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM FOR THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE THE TROUGH\r\nTO THE WEST OF IVAN.  MOST OF THE 00 TRACK MODEL SUITE SHOW A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO \r\nAND IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nNOGAPS AND CLIPER. SOME MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL\r\nGOES ALMOST DUE WEST AND DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 25.8N  37.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 27.4N  38.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 29.1N  39.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 30.6N  40.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 32.3N  40.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 36.0N  40.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS BASED UPON DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO UNDERGO SHEARING FROM THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45\r\nKNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SYSTEM MAY\r\nBECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/13 KNOTS.  THE PRIMARY\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM FOR THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE THE TROUGH\r\nTO THE WEST OF IVAN.  MOST OF THE 00Z TRACK MODELS SHOW A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD\r\nSPEEDS OF THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nOCCURS AT DIFFERENT LATITUDES RESULTING IN A DIVERGENT TRACK SUITE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS BASIC SCENARIO AND IS\r\nSIMILAR THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 27.3N  38.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 29.2N  38.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 31.4N  39.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 33.5N  40.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 35.4N  39.9W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 38.9N  38.4W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nIVAN APPEARS ON VISIBLE PICTURES TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAGAIN...WITH THE CENTER UNDER THE CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTH.  T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nCOME UP AGAIN...BUT NOT ENOUGH YET TO BRING THE WINDS ABOVE 45 KT.\r\nTHE NNW HEADING CONTINUES WITH THE FORWARD SPEED HAVING INCREASED TO\r\nABOUT 16 KT.\r\n \r\nIVAN IS NOW ENTANGLED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.\r\nANOTHER TROUGH TO THE WEST IS LIKELY TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE\r\nNNW AND THEN THE NORTH.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE WESTERLIES GAIN INFLUENCE.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IVAN\r\nCOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 29.3N  39.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 31.5N  40.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 34.2N  40.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 36.4N  40.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 38.7N  38.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 42.0N  33.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE WAS FIRST NOTED ABOUT 14Z.  IT HAS PERSISTED SINCE THEN AND\r\nIS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING IVAN TO A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS.\r\nONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBEGIN TO BE ACCELERATED OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS 330/15 KT.  GUIDANCE TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  BY 48\r\nHOURS...IVAN WILL BE MOVING NE OVER 24C WATER AND SHOULD BE LOSING\r\nITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\n  \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 30.2N  40.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 32.2N  40.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 34.8N  41.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 37.4N  39.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 39.6N  36.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 41.5N  27.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.\r\nTHE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN -60C TO -65C CLOUD TOPS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nTHE DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  WHILE SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWARD IT SHOULD \r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS\r\nAS IT ENCOUNTERS 23/24C SST/S.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KNOTS. IVAN REMAINS INVOLVED\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE \r\nIS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH BY 24 HOURS...AND A BEND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nA LATE 18Z SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED...ID PJOX...REPORTING AN EAST\r\nWIND OF 75 KNOTS LOCATED ABOUT 70 NM NORTHEAST OF IVAN AT THE TIME. \r\nTHE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. DEEMED THE WIND THE\r\nOBSERVATION UNRELIABLE BASED ON THEIR QUALITY-CONTROL PROCESS.  THIS\r\nINCLUDES TRACKING OF THE SHIPS WINDS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 30.9N  40.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 32.8N  41.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 35.9N  40.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 38.2N  37.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 39.5N  33.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 40.0N  22.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO 4.5. \r\nSYSTEM HAS NOT BEGUN TO RECURVE YET SO THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY\r\nBE TIME FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 70 KTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM\r\nBEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS 23/24C\r\nSST/S.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10 KNOTS. IVAN REMAINS INVOLVED\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH BY 24 HOURS...AND A BEND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE LATE 18Z SHIP REPORT AND EARLIER REPORTS\r\nFROM THE SAME SHIP...ID PJOX...REPORTING AN EAST WIND OF 75 KNOTS\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 70 NM NORTHEAST OF IVAN AT THE TIME SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nOBS ARE DOUBLE WHAT THEY SHOULD BE.  THUS 75 KT WIND IS REALLY 37\r\nKTS. THIS FITS WITH COMPACT WIND FIELD AS ESTIMATED BY VISIBLE AND\r\nSSM/I DATA.  THIS OB IS USED TO SET 34KT WIND RADIUS IN NE QUAD.   \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 31.6N  41.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 32.9N  42.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 35.5N  41.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 37.7N  37.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 39.2N  33.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 39.7N  19.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT VISIBLE AT THIS TIME...IVAN RETAINS A CENTRAL\r\nAREA OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AGAIN\r\nESTIMATED AT 70 KT.  THE HEADING APPEARS TO HAVE SWUNG A LITTLE MORE\r\nTO THE RIGHT...345/11 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE BEND IN TRACK COULD BE THE FIRST STAGE OF THE EXPECTED\r\nRECURVATURE AS IVAN BEGINS TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDE\r\nFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE IN SHOWING A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE EAST.  BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...IVAN WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nWHILE PASSING OVER OR NEAR THE AZORES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 33.0N  42.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 34.8N  41.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 37.0N  39.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 38.2N  35.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 38.9N  29.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 39.5N  17.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS APPEARED OCCASIONALLY TODAY AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nOVERALL STRUCTURE CHANGE.  IVAN REMAINS SMALL BUT INTACT...WITH\r\nWINDS NEAR 70 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS NOW 350/12 KT AND THE GRADUAL CURVATURE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE...AS SHOWN BY ALL AVAILABLE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.  THE SYSTEM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN AZORES ON SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 34.0N  42.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 36.0N  41.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 37.8N  40.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 39.2N  36.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 40.1N  30.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 40.0N  15.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF IVAN AS DECREASED IN\r\nINTENSITY BUT REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO WARRANT DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF NEAR 70 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH FORECAST FOR THE LAST SEVERAL \r\nPACKAGES HAS BEGUN WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/10 \r\nKNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS IVAN BENDING NORTHEAST WITHIN \r\n24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATING TO THE EAST BY 36 HOURS. MOST OF \r\nTHE 00Z TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION.  THE SYSTEM \r\nIS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT\r\nHEADS EASTWARD ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS...24 DEG C\r\nBY 36 HOURS...AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.    \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN\r\nAZORES ON SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 34.9N  42.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 36.6N  41.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 38.4N  38.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 39.0N  33.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 39.0N  27.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 39.5N  13.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 4.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH FORECAST FOR THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nPACKAGES HAS BEGUN WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/14\r\nKNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS IVAN BENDING NORTHEAST WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATING TO THE EAST BY 36 HOURS. MOST OF\r\nTHE 06Z TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION.  THE SYSTEM\r\nIS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AS IT\r\nHEADS EASTWARD ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS...24 DEG C\r\nBY 36 HOURS...AND INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN\r\nAZORES ON SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 35.7N  41.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 37.3N  40.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 38.6N  36.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 39.0N  31.6W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 39.0N  25.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 39.3N   9.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nWITH THE FIRST VISIBLE PICTURES A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAS RETURNED TO\r\nHURRICANE IVAN.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN IN THE 4.0 TO 4.5 RANGE. \r\nTHUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 70 KNOTS.  THIS\r\nWILL BE HELD THROUGH 12 HOURS DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST FIXES.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 055/16.  THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES BENDING TO\r\nTHE EAST UNTIL IT IS DUE EAST BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS WHEN THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE HURRICANE WILL ACCELERATE\r\nALONG THIS TRACK...PASSING THE AZORES WITH NEAR HURRICANE CONDITIONS\r\nBETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS.  MOST OF TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS CLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 36.5N  40.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 37.9N  38.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 39.1N  33.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 39.6N  27.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 39.6N  20.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF IVAN APPEARS INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE PICTURES.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN IN THE 4.0 TO 4.5 RANGE.  THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 70 KNOTS.  THIS WILL BE HELD THROUGH 12\r\nHOURS DECREASING TO 45 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS...THE SAME INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY.  \r\n \r\nTHE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE LATEST\r\nFIXES.  THE INITIAL MOTION...055/16...IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BEND THROUGH EAST TO THE SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHEAST BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE HURRICANE WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THIS\r\nTRACK...PASSING THE AZORES WITH NEAR HURRICANE CONDITIONS BETWEEN\r\nTHE 24 AND 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS.  MOST OF TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nCLUSTERED ON THIS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 37.7N  39.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 39.1N  36.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 39.5N  31.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 39.5N  25.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 38.9N  17.9W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n\r\nIVAN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 18-\r\n20 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD...BUT\r\nTHIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR A HIGHER LATITUDE HURRICANE.  IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHAT IVAN WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE BAROCLINIC\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 060/18.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  IVAN IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH\r\nFURTHER ACCELERATION.  THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nOBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT IVAN IS\r\nENCOUNTERING AN AREA OF STRONGER...AND ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED...\r\nWESTERLIES AT 500 MB.\r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES ISLANDS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 38.5N  37.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 39.5N  34.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 39.5N  28.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 39.0N  22.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 38.5N  16.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nIVAN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED ...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 18-\r\n20 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD...BUT\r\nTHIS IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR A HIGHER LATITUDE HURRICANE.  IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHAT IVAN WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE BAROCLINIC\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/24.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IVAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE RIGHT WITH SLIGHT ADDITIONAL\r\nACCELERATION.  THIS IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE TRACK\r\nPREDICTION MODELS.\r\n \r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES ISLANDS BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 39.2N  34.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 39.7N  30.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 39.2N  23.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 38.9N  18.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 38.4N  13.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nIVAN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 18-20 NMI IN\r\nDIAMETER.  THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY MAY BEGIN TO SHOW\r\nTHE EYE FILLING AS IVAN BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS.  IVAN IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/30.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...REACHING SPAIN IN 36 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nTRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.\r\n \r\nON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT\r\nFORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE AZORES.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 40.4N  31.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 41.3N  25.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 42.2N  16.1W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 41.8N   6.1W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nIVAN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED BUT THE EYE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM STARTS TO FILL.  ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nNUMBER ARE HELD TO 4.5...77 KNOTS...THE DATA T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING.\r\nAS A RESULT THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCE TO 65 KNOTS...MINIMUM\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.  IVAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD AND THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/290...ABOUT THE SAME TRANSLATION SPEED AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...OVER SPAIN IN 36 HOURS.  THIS TRACK REMAINS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.\r\n \r\nON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS WILL NOT SPREAD OVER THE AZORES.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 40.9N  29.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 41.7N  23.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 42.1N  13.8W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 41.7N   2.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nIVAN IS RACING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC JUST NORTH\r\nOF THE AZORES ISLANDS.  BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IVAN\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...60 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nRAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL BE DECLARED EXTRA-\r\nTROPICAL BY 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nIVAN HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE THIS EVENING AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/30 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PLACES THE SYSTEM INLAND\r\nOVER SPAIN BY 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON IVAN BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  PLEASE CONSULT THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING\r\nBULLETIN...WMO HEADER FPNT80 EGRR...ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 40.7N  23.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 40.7N  17.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 40.7N   7.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DISTURBANCE JUST OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT...\r\nPARTICULARLY TO THE SW OF THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS MOST PROMINENT TO\r\nTHE WEST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM A SHIP NE OF THE\r\nCENTER IMPLY WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT...SO THE SYSTEM WILL BE STARTED AS\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE...PRONOUNCED JEEN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 285/12 KT.\r\n\r\nA RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE IS FORECAST BY THE 12Z NOGAPS TO\r\nBUILD WESTWARD...KEEPING THE STORM ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THIS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SCHEME BRINGS JEANNE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT THE BAM\r\nOUTPUT IMPLIES SOME SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AFFECTING\r\nIVAN...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENING RATE IS NOT QUITE AS\r\nGREAT.\r\n\r\nWE NOTE THAT THIS IS THE NINTH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN THE\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE PAST 33 DAYS.  ALSO...THIS IS ONLY THE THIRD\r\nSYSTEM IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS FAR\r\nEAST.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 11.1N  20.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N  21.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 12.1N  24.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 12.8N  27.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.4N  29.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N  34.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 21 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE PATTERN.  INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 35 KNOTS...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE UPPER\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD\r\nALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT FORECAST TRACK\r\nBASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nWE NOTE THAT THIS IS THE NINTH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN THE\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE PAST 33 DAYS.  ALSO...THIS IS ONLY THE THIRD\r\nSYSTEM IN MORE THAN 100 YEARS TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS FAR\r\nEAST.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 11.4N  21.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N  23.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 12.4N  25.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N  28.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 13.8N  31.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N  37.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BANDING TYPE PATTERNS.  INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS FAVORABLE...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING\r\nTO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD\r\nALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT FORECAST TRACK\r\nBASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 12.4N  23.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.0N  25.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  28.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.9N  31.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.9N  34.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.2N  38.9W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nJEANNE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  A RATHER SOLID AND MODERATE-SIZED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS APPARENT WITH A DISTINCT BAND TO THE NW\r\nTHROUGH NORTH.  T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.5...SO 55 KT WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS LITTLE CHANGED...295/15 KT.  THE 00Z NOGAPS SHOWS A\r\nHIGH EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF JEANNE WESTWARD TO ABOUT 35W.  THIS\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A WNW HEADING THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHAT EXPECTATION.\r\n\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT IS\r\nSHOWN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 13.0N  24.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.7N  26.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.7N  29.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N  32.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  35.3W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N  40.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHE STRENGTHENING TREND HAS CONTINUED.  AN EYE APPEARED FOR A FEW\r\nHOURS AND DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0.  JEANNE IS UPGRADED\r\nTO A 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE WNW...AT ABOUT 15 KT.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE SIMILAR TO 6 HOURS AGO AND\r\nSHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 13.5N  26.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.2N  28.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  31.3W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.9N  34.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.7N  36.9W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N  41.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF JEANNE AND THE BANDING FEATURE WRAPS ALMOST\r\nFULLY AROUND THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB \r\nAND SAB ARE 4.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\n40W WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE\r\n72-HOUR PERIOD.  THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF JEANNE BEYOND 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF JEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. THIS TRACK\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 13.8N  27.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.3N  29.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.2N  32.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N  35.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.6N  37.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  42.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN EYE...FOR A SHORT PERIOD...EARLY IN THE\r\nEVENING BUT HAS BEEN OBSCURED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BECAUSE OF\r\nA CDO CAUSED BY A BURST OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AND GLOBAL ARE 4.5. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 43W WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 72-HOUR PERIOD.  THE ASSOCIATED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF JEANNE BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF JEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST. THIS TRACK\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 14.4N  28.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  30.9W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.9N  33.9W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.7N  36.4W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.4N  38.7W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N  44.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE CONTINUES TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 80 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CONTROLLING FEATURE FOR TRACK REMAINS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  THE MOTION OF JEANNE...290/15 KT...HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE FORMED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK REPRESENT AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 14.9N  30.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.7N  32.8W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.6N  35.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N  38.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.4N  40.8W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.5N  45.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE CONTINUES TO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY AND DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T-NUMBER REMAIN 4.5 OR ABOUT 80 KNOTS.  SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO 90 KNOTS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL\r\nAND THE CURRENT TREND.  THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS SOME SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING AND THEN WEAKENING TO A\r\nMINIMUM HURRICANE AT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CONTROLLING FEATURE FOR TRACK REMAINS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  THE MOTION OF JEANNE...285/15 KT...HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE FORMED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORESEEN FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK REPRESENT AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 15.3N  31.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.9N  34.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N  36.8W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 17.7N  39.3W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.8N  41.8W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N  46.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT APPARENT ON THE IR IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.0. BASED UPON THESE\r\nESTIMATES THE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS. THE AVN\r\nMODEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF JEANNE. HOWEVER...THE AVN FORECAST SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH WILL DECREASE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE MOVES WESTWARD WITH THE STORM.  THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION TO\r\n90 KNOTS IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS JEANNE WILL BE\r\nCLOSE TO THE UPPER WESTERLIES SO SOME WEAKENING IS PREDICTED.\r\n\r\nJEANNE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE SO THE WEST NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF JEANNE...285/14 KNOTS...IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR RANGE THE NOGAPS...LBAR...AND UKMET\r\nMODELS SUGGEST A NORTHWEST TURN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN EXTENSION\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nDEMARIA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 15.7N  33.1W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N  35.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.2N  37.9W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 18.4N  40.3W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.6N  42.7W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 22.5N  46.3W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT APPARENT ON THE IR IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY T-NUMBERS FROM THREE CENTERS ARE ALL 5.0 OR 90 KNOTS.\r\nTHEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 90 KNOTS.  ALL\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...AVN...NOGAPS...UKMET...DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAHEAD OF JEANNE IN THREE DAYS TIME.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AFTER WHICH SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS JEANNE\r\nWILL BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nJEANNE SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE SO THE WEST NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF JEANNE REMAINS 285/14 KNOTS.  IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR\r\nRANGE...LBAR...UKMET...GFDL AND A98E MODELS ALL FORECAST A NORTHWEST\r\nTURN.  NOGAPS ALSO TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST BUT MUCH\r\nEARLIER THAN THE OTHERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE CURRENT 72-\r\nHOUR POSITION AND IS A LITTLE MORE NORTH THEN PREVIOUSLY.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 16.2N  34.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N  36.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.7N  39.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 18.9N  41.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 20.3N  43.9W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  46.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 5.0 SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 90 KNOTS. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING\r\nAPPARENT AGAIN AND THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST. IN THE LONGER RANGE JEANNE WILL BE APPROACHING AN UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH SO THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE. BECAUSE OF THIS\r\nLESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48\r\nHOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THIS MORNING WERE A LITTLE\r\nFURTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND SUGGESTED A\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 KNOTS.\r\nTHE GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST MOTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AT 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS. NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD\r\nTURN...ALTHOUGH NOGAPS TURNS JEANNE SOONER THAN THE REST. THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. \r\n\r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 16.7N  34.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N  36.6W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N  39.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.7N  41.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 21.4N  43.1W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 25.0N  44.4W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB RANGE BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0. THE\r\nGENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 90 KNOTS. THE OUTFLOW NEAR THE SYSTEM IS STILL FAIRLY WELL\r\nESTABLISHED...BUT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE GETTING CLOSE TO THE\r\nNORTH AND WEST SIDE OF JEANNE. THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nJEANNE IS STILL MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST NORTHWEST...BUT WITH A\r\nSLIGHTLY LARGER NORTHWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12\r\nKNOTS. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARDS THE\r\nNORTH AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS TRACK IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS...ALTHOUGH\r\nIT IS STILL SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE OTHER TRACKS. THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK. \r\n\r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 17.2N  35.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.9N  37.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.1N  40.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 20.8N  42.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 22.7N  43.4W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.6N  43.9W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IS HOLDING STEADY AT 90 KNOTS AS INDICATED\r\nBY SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STORM IS APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WHICH MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN. THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nWHICH MAY ACT TO WEAKEN THE STORM. HOWEVER...IN SOME CASES\r\nINTERACTION WITH A TROUGH CAN LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION. WITHOUT\r\nGUIDANCE AS TO WHICH PROCESS WILL BE MORE IMPORTANT THE INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD STEADY TO 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nJEANNE IS CONTINUING ITS GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH. THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION IS 300/12 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS. \r\n \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 17.8N  36.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 18.7N  38.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 20.1N  40.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 21.9N  42.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.1N  43.2W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 29.4N  43.6W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF JEANNE REMAINS STEADY AT 90 KNOTS IN KEEPING WITH\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE STORM IS APPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WHICH MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN.  THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nWHICH MAY ACT TO WEAKEN THE STORM.  THIS IS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.   NEVERTHELESS...IN SOME CASES INTERACTION WITH\r\nA TROUGH CAN LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL MODEL HOLDS THE\r\nINTENSITY NEAR 90 KNOTS THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE SLIGHT WEAKENING\r\nBEGINS.  THIS IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CHOSEN AND IS THE SAME AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY.\r\n \r\nJEANNE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nMIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION REMAINS 300/12 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.  THIS MOTION CONTINUES TO\r\nBE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 18.4N  37.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 19.4N  39.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 21.3N  41.2W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N  42.4W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N  42.8W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 31.0N  42.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF JEANNE REMAINS STEADY AT 90 KNOTS AS INDICATED BY\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE AVN MODEL INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE\r\nENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nJEANNE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME\r\nRIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT\r\nTO 36 HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS JEANNE\r\nAPPROACHES A MUCH LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nAMPLIFY IN FRONT OF THE STORM IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION OF JEANNE IS 300/10 WHICH SUGGESTS THAT JEANNE\r\nHAS SLOWED DOWN. HOWEVER...THE STORM IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST BY 24 HOURS AND TO THE NORTH BY 72 HOURS. SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS JEANNE\r\nAPPROACHES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY IN\r\nFRONT OF THE STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS.\r\n  \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 18.8N  38.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.9N  39.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 21.8N  41.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 24.2N  42.6W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  43.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 33.8N  42.3W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n\r\nIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS JEANNE HAS LOOKED LESS IMPRESSIVE ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOUTFLOW ON VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL LOOKS FAIRLY WELL\r\nESTABLISHED...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS BEING\r\nIMPACTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR. THE WESTERLIES IMPACTING JEANNE APPEAR\r\nTO BE AT A LOWER LEVEL THAN THAT OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nAND GFDL MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE JEANNE WILL STILL BE ABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTING THAT JEANNE IS NOW MAKING ITS\r\nANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTH. THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10\r\nKNOTS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO CLUSTER...WITH THE\r\nLBAR...UKMET...AND NHC98 MODELS SLOWER AND MORE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST. \r\n \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 19.7N  38.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 21.1N  39.4W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 22.9N  40.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.1N  41.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 28.3N  41.2W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 35.5N  40.3W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n\r\nJEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO LOOK RAGGED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nDVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE 4.5. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n75 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS BEING\r\nSHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nAND THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN A\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS. IF THE SHEAR RELAXES IN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...AS SUGGESTED BY THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE\r\nAVN FORECAST...STRENGTHENING MIGHT STILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE...THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT THROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 325/9 KNOTS...BUT\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SINCE THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND LBAR MODELS INDICATE A NORTH NORTHEAST MOTION\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS. \r\n  \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 20.5N  39.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 21.6N  40.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 23.4N  40.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 25.8N  41.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 28.8N  40.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 37.2N  38.3W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nJEANNE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. DVORAK CI\r\nNUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 70 KNOTS.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE GFDL MODEL\r\nCONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS. IF THE SHEAR RELAXES IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE AVN FORECAST...\r\nSTRENGTHENING MIGHT STILL BE POSSIBLE. AS A COMPROMISE...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT MOTION IS 340/10 KNOTS...BUT\r\nAN GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...SINCE THE GFDL...UKMET...AND LBAR MODELS INDICATE A NORTH\r\nNORTHEAST MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 21.5N  40.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.9N  40.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.0N  40.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N  40.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  40.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 37.1N  37.2W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 AND T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 3.5\r\nTO 4.0. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS. HOWEVER\r\nTHE VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT JEANNE IS A\r\nLITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE ENDED. THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE STORM WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THAT SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS A COMPROMISE...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS 345/10 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. \r\n \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 22.2N  40.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 23.6N  40.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.9N  40.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 28.5N  40.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 31.4N  38.9W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 39.0N  33.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS UNDER THE DENSE CONVECTIVE\r\nOVERCAST...AND CURRENT DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM THE TROPICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER AND THE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS BRANCH ARE 4.0.  THUS\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 65 KNOTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.  HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY HOSTILE...SO THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS STILL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...AT\r\nAROUND 10 KNOTS.  JEANNE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\n500 MB ANTICYCLONE...AND WILL ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW AFTER CROSSING 30N.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS ACCELERATION TO AROUND\r\n25 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 23.0N  41.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  42.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  41.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  40.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  37.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 40.0N  27.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nBUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  AN SSM/I PASS FROM 26/2215Z CAUGHT ABOUT HALF OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...AND HELPS A LITTLE WITH THE LOCATION.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY\r\nHOSTILE...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10.  JEANNE IS BEING STEERED AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND IS ABOUT TO\r\nBE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.\r\nRECURVATURE WITH ACCELERATION IS FORECAST.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A REASONABLE\r\nBLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 23.8N  41.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 25.2N  42.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  41.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 32.0N  39.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 36.0N  35.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 40.0N  23.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 70\r\nKNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A MUCH\r\nLARGER ANTICYCLONE... SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED TO HURRICANE IVAN\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AGO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER NEAR THE 72 HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOSITION WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/11...INDICATING THAT WE ARE NEAR OR\r\nHAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST IS FORECAST.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 24.8N  41.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.4N  41.7W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  40.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 34.3N  37.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 37.5N  32.6W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 40.5N  18.9W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE\r\nARE WEAK BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH NO EYE\r\nEVIDENT.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70 KNOTS...THE AVERAGE OF\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON.  NO CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE.  IN ANY EVENT...JEANNE SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AFTER IT PASSES THE AZORES.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nLARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND WILL\r\nBEGIN TO MAKE CONTACT WITH THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES SOON.  THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AND THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND THEN EAST-NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS JEANNE NEAR THE AZORES IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 26.3N  41.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  41.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 32.0N  39.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 35.5N  35.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 38.0N  30.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 41.0N  18.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TODAY...TO AROUND 15\r\nKNOTS...THE 18Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  THE LATEST AVN FORECAST AT 500 MB FORECASTS THE RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO BUILD NORTHWARD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nINDICATED.  AS A RESULT...THE STRONGER WESTERLIES SHIFT FARTHER\r\nNORTH...AND THE STEERING FLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS NOT AS\r\nFAST AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE.  HOWEVER IT STILL HAS JEANNE APPROACHING THE AZORES IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AVERAGING AROUND 70 KNOTS.  THE\r\nCENTER IS STILL UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS PREDICTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM PASSES THE AZORES...AT WHICH\r\nTIME IT WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER\r\nTHERE ARE NOW SOME INDICATIONS THAT INCREASING SHEAR COULD WEAKEN\r\nJEANNE SOONER THAN THAT. \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 28.3N  41.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 30.6N  40.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 33.3N  38.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 36.0N  35.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 37.5N  31.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 40.0N  22.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0 FROM ALL CENTERS. \r\nTHEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS...MINIMUM\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL UNDER THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION BUT THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARED TO SHOW IT\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION INDICATING\r\nVERTICAL SHEARING.  THEREFORE HURRICANE INTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH\r\nTHE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nPREDICTED UNTIL WE HAVE A 50-KNOT STORM BY 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS 015/16...NEARLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUSLY.  GIVEN\r\nTHE VIEW IN THE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO\r\nASCERTAIN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IN THE INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY LATER TONIGHT.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS OF TWO MINDS FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.  THE DEEP LAYER MODELS...LBAR...GFDL...BAM DEEP AND\r\nNHC90 YIELD TRACKS WITH 72 HOUR POSITIONS SOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE\r\nSHALLOW AND GLOBAL MODELS YIELD 72 HOUR POSITIONS NORTH OF 40N AND\r\nWEST OF 32W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE\r\nTWO SETS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST..TAKING THE STORM\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AZORES ON A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TRACK.\r\n\r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 29.3N  41.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 31.6N  40.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 34.5N  38.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 37.2N  35.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 39.1N  31.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 41.4N  22.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n \r\nINFRARED TEMPERATURES...IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER...HAVE COOLED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS\r\nSTILL SOMEWHAT HEALTHY EVEN WITH THE APPARENT VERTICAL SHEARING. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65\r\nKNOTS.  HURRICANE INTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH THE 12-HOUR FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED...AS WAS THE CASE\r\nIN OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS 025/16.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nHAVE TWO MINDS ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE DEEP LAYER\r\nMODELS...LBAR...GFDL...BAM DEEP AND NHC90 YIELD TRACKS WITH 72 HOUR\r\nPOSITIONS SOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE SHALLOW AND GLOBAL MODELS YIELD\r\n72 HOUR POSITIONS NORTH OF 40N.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SETS AND MOVES ALONG THE UKMET FORECAST\r\nTRACK...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 31.0N  40.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 33.2N  39.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 36.1N  37.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 38.6N  34.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 40.5N  30.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 42.7N  25.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JEANNE IS A\r\nHEALTHY HURRICANE.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nAT 4.5.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE SYSTEM AND\r\nANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE\r\nSTUDIES...CIMSS..INDICATE THAT A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JEANNE SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS...23-24 DEG C.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EXTRA-TROPICAL\r\nSTATUS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT JEANNE HAS ACCELERATED A BIT OVER THE\r\nLAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING NEAR 025/20 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR 60W WHICH IS STEERING THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DE-AMPLIFY.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION TO SLOW AS THE TRACK BENDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO PRIMARY SOLUTIONS WITH ONE GROUP OF\r\nMODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST COURSE\r\nAND ANOTHER MOVING JEANNE NORTHEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH A EAST\r\nTO SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK BEYOND.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nREPRESENTS A COMPROMISE SHOWING A EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION AFTER\r\n36 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 33.4N  39.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 35.4N  37.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 38.6N  34.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 40.3N  32.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 41.5N  29.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 43.0N  24.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JEANNE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...CLOUD TO TOPS TO -75C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5...RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY \r\nWILL BE INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS. WITH THE OUTFLOW WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nOVER MOST OF THE SYSTEM AND WARM SST/S...26-27 DEG C...JEANNES\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT HURRICANE STATUS THROUGH 36 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS\r\nAND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/18 KT. THE MID-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR 55W WHICH IS STEERING THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DE-AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW THE FORWARD MOTION TO SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE TRACK\r\nBENDS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME\r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THE WITH MOST OF THE MODELS SHOWING A\r\nNORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH AN EASTWARD\r\nHEADING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.  THIS REPRESENTS A SOUTHWARD\r\nADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE AVIATION AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS\r\nJEANNE CLOSER TO THE AZORES...AND THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL STORM-\r\nFORCE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 34.2N  37.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 36.0N  36.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 37.9N  33.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 39.1N  30.1W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 39.5N  27.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 39.5N  21.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 28 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE DEPENDS ON WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS LOCATED IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE IS OVER 60\r\nNMI SCATTER IN THE FIXES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE\r\nJEANNE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C.  THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/18.  CONSIDERABLE SCATTER EXISTS IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODELS...BUT NEARLY ALL SUGGEST THAT STEERING CURRENTS\r\nWILL CONTINUE THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LAYER BAM AND AVIATION\r\nMODELS.  THE UKMET AND GFDL SUGGEST A LITTLE MOTION SOUTH OF EAST\r\nAFTER 36 OR 48 HOURS...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 35.8N  36.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 37.5N  34.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 39.0N  31.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 39.8N  28.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 40.0N  25.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 40.0N  19.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998\r\n \r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON IR IMAGERY.  WHILE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS PRESENT...IT IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING\r\nBUT CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND\r\nSPEED...80 KT.\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN POSITIONING...IT APPEARS THAT THE TRACK\r\nOF JEANNE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR\r\n060/18 KT.  ONE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS BYPASSING JEANNE TO THE\r\nNORTH...BUT NUMERICAL SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY BECOME PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE EASTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. \r\nTHIS TAKES JEANNE INTO COOL WATERS WHERE WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION\r\nTO EXTRATROPICAL IS LIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM OR...LESS LIKELY...HURRICANE\r\nCONDITIONS TO THE AZORES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 36.2N  34.4W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 37.3N  31.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 38.1N  28.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 38.4N  25.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 38.5N  22.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 38.0N  17.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF JEANNE IS NOW\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REFLECT THE WEAKENED STATE OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO \r\n70 KT. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT JEANNE HAS SLOWED AND IS A BIT LEFT \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/12 KT.\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PICKED\r\nUP BY THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND STEERED AROUND\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER.\r\nTHE EXTREMES ARE REPRESENTED BY NOGAPS WHICH CONTINUES NORTHEAST\r\nMOTION THROUGHOUT 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL MOVES JEANNE EAST THEN\r\nSOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A NORTHEAST COURSE\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A MORE EASTWARD HEADING THEREAFTER...IN\r\nCLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  THE NHC TRACK \r\nTAKES JEANNE INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHERE WEAKENING AND \r\nA TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS\r\nTO THE AZORES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 36.5N  34.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 37.3N  33.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 38.2N  30.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 39.0N  27.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 39.5N  24.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 39.5N  18.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998\r\n \r\nJEANNE REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXPOSED\r\nCENTER JUST WEST OF -75C CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL RANGE FROM 55 TO\r\n65 KNOTS AND IS THE BASIS FOR DOWNGRADING JEANNE TO TROPICAL \r\nSTORM STATUS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 60 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 060/8 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST \r\nTHAT JEANNE WILL BE STEERED ON A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST COURSE\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nSO BEFORE A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES. NOGAPS CONTINUES \r\nA NORTHEAST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS AND REMAINS THE LEFT-MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE WHILE LBAR IS THE RIGHT-MOST WITH AN EAST TO\r\nSOUTHEAST MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nMOTION....AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nTAKES JEANNE INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHERE WEAKENING...\r\nAND A TRANSITION TO EXTRA-TROPICAL STATUS..IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CONDITIONS\r\nTO THE AZORES WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 36.8N  34.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 37.4N  32.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 38.2N  31.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 39.0N  29.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 39.5N  26.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 39.5N  20.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":34,"Date":"1998-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/09.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL AND NOGAPS SHOW A MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND LBAR SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST.  THE UKMET SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH APPARENTLY IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A FRONTAL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM OVERTAKING IT AND\r\nADVECTING IT NORTHWARD.  THE BAM MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STRONGER\r\nSYSTEM WITH MORE VERTICAL EXTENT WILL HAVE MORE OF AN EASTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT THAN A WEAKER SHEARED SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND IS A\r\nLITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...BASED ON A CONTINUATION\r\nOF THE SHEARING WHICH IS OCCURRING.\r\n \r\nTHIS SHEARING IS CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO BE EXPOSED TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CONVECTION AND IS THE BASIS FOR DECREASING THE CURRENT\r\nWIND SPEED TO 50 KNOTS AND FOR FORECASTING CONTINUED WEAKENING.\r\nCOOLER SSTS ALSO ARE PART OF THE REASONING FOR WEAKENING.  THE\r\nOVERTAKING FRONTAL LOW MAY ALSO BE THE MECHANISM FOR CAUSING JEANNE\r\nTO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...PERHAPS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 37.2N  33.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 37.8N  31.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 38.6N  30.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 39.5N  27.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 40.5N  25.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 41.0N  19.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":35,"Date":"1998-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 30 1998\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SST/S CONTINUE TO WEAKEN JEANNE.  THE LOW\r\nCLOUD CIRCULATION IS NOW MORE THAN ONE-HALF EXPOSED AND ITS CENTER\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF EAST AT ABOUT 11 KT.  CLOUD TOPS\r\nOF THE REMAINING CONVECTION ARE WARMING.\r\n \r\nTHE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED\r\nJEANNE AND DISTORTED ITS CIRCULATION.  THE NOGAPS...AVN...AND GFDL\r\nALL TAKE JEANNE TOWARD THE NE OR NNE WHICH IS INCONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nANALYZED CURRENT MOTION.  THE UKMET...LBAR AND THE REST SHOW\r\nEXTENSIONS OF THE RECENT TRACK...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nTHIS CARRIES JEANNE THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES.  A CONTINUED\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AND TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 37.4N  31.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 37.9N  29.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 38.7N  26.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 38.9N  23.4W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 39.0N  20.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":36,"Date":"1998-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 30 1998\r\n\r\nJEANNE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH THE LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION MORE\r\nTHAN ONE-HALF EXPOSED.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INVOLVED WITH AN\r\nAPPROACHING FRONT AND TO START LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS.  JEANNE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 11 KNOTS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND IS IN LINE WITH MEDIUM-DEPTH STEERING AND THE STATISTICAL/\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODEL.  THIS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE OVER THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 37.7N  30.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 38.3N  28.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 39.0N  25.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 39.5N  22.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 40.0N  18.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":37,"Date":"1998-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 30 1998\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM THE AZORES...INCLUDING WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nLAJES AIR FORCE BASE...SUGGEST THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED\r\nJUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  EARLIER...AT 17Z...HORTA...\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 90 N MI WEST OF THE ISLAND OF TERCEIRA REPORTED A WIND\r\nGUST TO 37 KNOTS.  JEANNE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE\r\nWEST...AND A COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AT AROUND 12\r\nKNOTS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nPREDICTION MODEL.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 38.2N  28.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 38.8N  26.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 39.5N  23.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 40.0N  20.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 40.5N  17.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":38,"Date":"1998-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 30 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH THE AZORES AND IS RAPIDLY LOSING\r\nITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS OVER INCREASING COOL\r\nWATERS.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON JEANNE.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 38.6N  26.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 39.0N  24.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 40.0N  21.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 41.0N  18.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED TO\r\nBE NORTH OF BERMUDA IN THE EARLIER SPECIAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT. \r\nSATELLITE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS FOR NHC TO BEGIN ISSUING ADVISORIES ON IT AS\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN.  ITS ORIGIN IS NOT CERTAIN BUT COULD BE\r\nRELATED TO THE SMALL LOW NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL NORTH\r\nCAROLINA AND SOUTH CAROLINA LAST WEEK...AND/OR THE REMNANTS OF\r\nHERMINE.  THIS IS THE TENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM IN THE ATLANTIC\r\nDURING THE PAST 35 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE TD IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE EAST...090/22 KT AHEAD OF THE\r\nFRONTAL BAND MOVING OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE LIMITED TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS TRACK WITH AN\r\nEVENTUAL BEND TOWARD THE ENE.  THIS IS FOLLOWED FOR THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 33.3N  61.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 33.4N  57.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 33.7N  53.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 34.3N  48.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 35.3N  44.2W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 37.5N  37.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 23 1998\r\n\r\nSEVERAL SATELLITE FIXES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN IS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...IN FACT \r\nITS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE OVERALL\r\nPATTERN SUPPORTS THE UPGRADING OF THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST\r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA-\r\nTROPICAL BY 48 HOURS WITH KARL APPROACHING 24 DEG C WATER.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/19 KNOTS.  KARL IS JUST EAST OF\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL\r\nZONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL EAST MOTION\r\nWITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH\r\nPROGRESSES EASTWARD AND DE-AMPLIFIES. THIS IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE STATISTICAL MODEL A98E.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 33.5N  59.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 33.9N  55.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 34.5N  51.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 35.5N  46.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 36.6N  42.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 38.5N  35.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM\r\nGRADUALLY STRENGTHENING BEFORE BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL BY 48 HOURS\r\nWITH KARL APPROACHING 24 DEG C WATER.\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES ARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE EAST...PERHAPS A\r\nDIP TO THE SOUTH IN THE TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n095/16 KNOTS.  KARL IS RACING EAST AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL EAST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND\r\nDE-AMPLIFIES. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 32.7N  57.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  55.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 32.7N  51.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 33.2N  46.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 34.2N  42.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 37.0N  33.7W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nKARL HAS SLOWED AND ITS TRACK IS NOW SOUTH OF EAST...AROUND 110/10\r\nKNOTS.  THE 00Z NOGAPS HAD THE BEST START OF THE MODELS.  WHILE SOME\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO OUR FORECAST OF 6 HOURS AGO...BOTH THE\r\n00Z NOGAPS AND AVN/MRF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ABSORBED\r\nOR PICKED UP BY THE COLD FRONT PASSING BY TO THE NW AND WILL INSTEAD\r\nDAWDLE OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR A FEW DAYS.  THE\r\nAVN/MRF SHOW THE SYSTEM LIFTED OUT IN A FEW DAYS BY THE WESTERLIES\r\nWHILE THE LONGER RANGE NOGAPS SHOWS A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH\r\nJEANNE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW A SLOWER MOTION THAN WE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS SMALL BUT IS STILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  THE NOGAPS RUN EVENTUALLY SHOWS KARL GROWING IN SIZE TO\r\nBECOME THE DOMINANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 32.3N  57.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 31.3N  55.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 30.6N  52.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 30.6N  50.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 31.1N  47.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 33.0N  40.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH KARL IS IN A WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT\r\n...AND THE CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED...TAFB AND SAB DVORAK T-\r\nNUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS\r\nARE AGAIN ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE RATHER SLOW MOTION TO THE ESE...NOW 115/7 KT...HAS PERSISTED\r\nDURING THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND SOME OTHER MODELS SHOW A\r\nCONTINUED SLOW MOTION FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...THEY INDICATE\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE ENE OR NE THEREAFTER...IN CONTRAST TO THE\r\n00Z AND 12Z NOGAPS WHICH INDICATE A NEAR-STALL DURING A FUJIWHARA\r\nINTERACTION WITH JEANNE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...SHOWS A TRACK BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 32.0N  56.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 31.5N  55.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 31.3N  53.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 31.6N  51.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 32.2N  49.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 35.0N  44.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 24 1998\r\n \r\nKARL REMAINS IN A SHEAR STATE WITH THE CENTER ON THE WESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 3.0.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.  SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS PER SHIPS. THE\r\nWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS AS A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nKARL HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/8 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY.  MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO.  THE NOGAPS SOLUTION\r\nSTILL SUGGESTS A NEAR-STALL DURING A FUJIWHARA INTERACTION WITH\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THIS ADVISORY INDICATES\r\nA COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS POSSIBILITY AND THE MORE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nMOTION SHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 31.3N  55.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 30.8N  54.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 30.9N  52.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 31.9N  50.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 33.1N  48.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 35.5N  43.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WARRANT INCREASING KARLS INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 50 KT.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BEYOND 24 HOURS AS A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nKARL CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEASTERLY THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/9 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST...THEN NORTHEAST TODAY.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS IT.  \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 30.6N  54.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 30.2N  53.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 31.4N  51.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 32.8N  49.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 34.3N  47.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 37.0N  45.1W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE T-NUMBER ARE NOW 4.0 OR 65 KNOTS. \r\nTHEREFORE KARL IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS.  MINIMUM HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING GRADUALLY TO 50\r\nKNOTS AT THE 72-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS DECREASE IS LIKELY DUE\r\nTHE INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY THE MID TO\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF KARL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 075/12.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY OR\r\nEARLY TOMORROW.  MOST OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS IT BUT NOT AS FAST AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE GFDL AND BAM DEEP.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 30.4N  53.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 30.9N  51.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 32.8N  49.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 35.2N  47.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 37.5N  44.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 42.2N  40.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF THE T-NUMBER ARE REMAIN 4.0 OR 65\r\nKNOTS.  MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY IS HELD THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nDECREASING GRADUALLY TO 50 KNOTS AT THE 72-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nTHE SAME INTENSITY FORECAST AS PREVIOUSLY.  THIS DECREASE IS LIKELY\r\nDUE THE INCREASE VERTICAL SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP BY THE\r\nMID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF KARL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 055/12.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nMOST OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THEM IT BUT NOT AS FAST AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nUKMET AND BAM DEEP.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 30.7N  52.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 31.8N  50.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 33.8N  48.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 36.3N  46.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 38.8N  43.6W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.6N  37.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 1998\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NO EYE IS EVIDENT...KARL IS EXHIBITING A TYPICAL EMBEDDED\r\nCENTER PATTERN WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST DVORAK ANALYSES.  NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL THE HURRICANE\r\nREACHES COOLER SEA TEMPS...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 12 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING KARL.  THIS\r\nFEATURE SHOULD SHOVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE OF OPINION REGARDING\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A COMPROMISE AND CALLS FOR A MODEST ACCELERATION TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST...TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 30.8N  51.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  49.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 35.0N  47.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 37.0N  45.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 39.5N  42.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 44.0N  34.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nSSM/I DATA AT 2111Z INDICATED AN EYE FEATURE IN KARL. CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH LATEST DVORAK\r\nANALYSES.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL THE\r\nHURRICANE REACHES COOLER SEA TEMPS...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 050/9 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING KARL.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY\r\nACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE OF OPINION\r\nREGARDING THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE AND CALLS FOR A MODEST\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 31.2N  50.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  49.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 33.3N  47.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 34.7N  46.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 39.0N  41.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 44.0N  30.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nLATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5.  NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND BEGINS\r\nACCELERATING EASTWARD...IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/13 KNOTS...SHOWING THE HURRICANE BEGINNING\r\nTO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nPICKS IT UP.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS CONSIDERABLY GREATER\r\nACCELERATION DURING THE 48 AND 72 HOURS FORECAST PERIODS AND IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND THE CURRENT GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM OVER EUROPE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 32.2N  49.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 33.7N  48.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 36.3N  45.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 38.9N  41.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 41.7N  36.6W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 45.5N  20.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KNOTS IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nLATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5.  NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER SEA TEMPERATURES AND BEGINS\r\nACCELERATING EASTWARD.  IN 36 HOURS...MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY OF\r\n65 KNOTS IS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/16 KNOTS...CONTINUING THE TREND TO\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nPICKS IT UP.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL AND A LITTLE SLOWER THEN THE BEST GUIDANCE MODELS WHICH\r\nSHOW THE SYSTEM OVER EUROPE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 33.1N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  46.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 37.6N  43.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 40.2N  39.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 42.7N  32.8W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 46.2N  14.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR INTENSITY FORECAST...\r\n \r\nKARL HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL NICELY DEFINED EYE...ABOUT 10 NM IN\r\nDIAMETER...FOR THE LAST 4-6 HOURS.  SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THUS..\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nINVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER WATERS...25 DEG C BY 24 HOURS...AND\r\nBEGINS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS\r\nKARL BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nKARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A NORTHEASTERLY HEADING AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/17 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD\r\nPERSIST...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION...FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS\r\nTHE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC PROPAGATES EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 34.4N  46.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 36.4N  44.4W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 39.5N  40.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 42.0N  34.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 44.0N  28.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 45.5N  14.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nKARL REMAINS A SMALL COMPACT INTENSE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE-BASED\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS INVOLVED WITH\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS KARL\r\nBECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL AT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nKARL HAS REALLY BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE PAST\r\nSIX HOURS.  SIX HOUR MOTION IS 22 KTS...THREE HOUR MOTION IS 25 KTS\r\nAND A ONE HOUR MOTION IS 30 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n040/29 KNOTS.  MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A BIG DIFFERENCE\r\nIN WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENT ACCELERATIONS IN\r\nTHE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE BUT MUCH FASTER.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 36.6N  44.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 40.0N  41.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 43.3N  33.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 44.7N  25.8W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 45.5N  19.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING REVEAL A WEAKENING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF LOSING ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NW AND N OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SW OF THE CENTER OF THE DEEPER CLOUD CIRCULATION.\r\nDVORAK T/CI NUMBERS ARE 4.5/5.0 AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 85 KT.  \r\n\r\nKARL IS MOVING TOWARD 045 DEGREES AT 29 KT...ACCELERATING JUST AHEAD\r\nOF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nHEADING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 38.3N  41.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 41.1N  37.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 43.6N  28.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 45.0N  19.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION TO\r\nMODERATE DEPTH SEEN ONLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THIS SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTER.  IT\r\nIS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL LATER THIS EVENING OR\r\nTONIGHT.\r\n \r\nKARL CONTINUES ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 065/33 KT.\r\nTHE TREND TOWARD AN EASTWARD ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 39.8N  37.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 42.1N  31.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 44.0N  22.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 45.5N  11.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF KARL REMAINS EXPOSED WITH CONVECTION TO\r\nMODERATE DEPTH APPEARING ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEARLY ONE\r\nDEGREE FROM THE CENTER.  THIS SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND HAS\r\nLOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTER.  IT IS ESSENTIAL BEING DECLARED\r\nEXTRATROPICAL WITH THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nKARL CONTINUES ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nAT ABOUT 36 KNOTS...070/36.  THE TREND TOWARD AN EASTWARD\r\nACCELERATION WILL CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON KARL BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  PLEASE CONSULT THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING BULLETIN...WMO\r\nHEADER FPNT80 EGRR...ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL\r\nOFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 40.9N  32.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 42.9N  25.7W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 45.0N  14.8W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 05 1998\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS DISPLAYED A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY TODAY.  THE WEST HALF OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nIS EXPOSED BUT THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE.  AN\r\nOBSERVATION OF 45 KNOTS FROM A DRIFTING BOUY IN THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAT ABOUT 11Z IS THE BASIS FOR CALLING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM. \r\nLISA MAY HAVE BEEN A STORM FOR 18 HOURS OR MORE...BUT IT WAS NOT\r\nUNTIL THE CENTER BECAME VISIBLE THIS MORNING THAT THIS WAS KNOWN TO\r\nBE THE CASE.  THE SHEARING IMPLIED BY THE EXPOSED CENTER AND STRONG\r\nWESTERLIES IS THE BASIS ASSUMING THAT WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE ALL SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING RECURVED BY A MAJOR\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL AND AVIATION AND LBAR MODELS.  A POSSIBILTY\r\nIS THAT A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WILL ABSORB THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n...RESULTING IN A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK INDICATES NO THREAT TO LAND.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 16.4N  49.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.7N  50.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  52.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N  51.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N  48.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 05 1998\r\n\r\nLOCATING THE CENTER ON SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY IS USUALLY QUITE DIFFICULT...AND THIS ONE IS NO EXCEPTION. \r\nHOWEVER THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTERS INFRARED COMBINATION CHANNEL\r\nIMAGERY REVEALS ENOUGH OF THE LOW CLOUD LINES OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE SO THAT THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE\r\nOF THE MAIN DENSE OVERCAST.  THIS LOCATION GIVES A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED...305/10.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A HIGH\r\nAMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC PATTERN...WITH A MAJOR TROUGH DIGGING IN\r\nTHE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nCONSISTENT WITH THIS STEERING PATTERN...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 21N 54W IS CONTRIBUTING TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL STORM.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS NEAR 40 KNOTS.  LISA HAS A FAIRLY LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION AND IT MAY BE MORE RESILIENT TO SHEAR THAN A VERY SMALL\r\nSTORM...WHICH WOULD PROBABLY BE DISSIPATING IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT. \r\nHOWEVER THE SHEARING IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX SO STRENGTHENING IS\r\nNOT LIKELY.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD OR BEYOND...LISA MAY BE\r\nINTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND COULD UNDERGO SOME BAROCLINIC\r\nDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 16.7N  49.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  51.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  52.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  50.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 23.0N  48.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 26.5N  43.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 1998\r\n \r\nTONIGHT COULD BE A TRIUMPH FOR NEW...OR RELATIVELY NEW...\r\nTECHNOLOGY.  THE CENTER OF LISA WAS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ON\r\nCONVENTIONAL IR METEOSAT AND GOES8 IMAGERY...WITH SOME ANALYSES OF\r\nTHAT DATA GIVING A MISLEADING IMPRESSION THAT THE CENTER HAD\r\nACCELERATED TO ABOUT 14 KT ALONG 305 DEGREES.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE SPECIAL NIGHT IR CHANNEL ON THE GOES8 SPACECRAFT PROVIDES\r\nA CLEARER VIEW. IT SHOWS THE SYSTEM TO HAVE SLOWED...TO 6 KT...AND\r\nPERHAPS TO HAVE BEGUN ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  INITIAL HEADING IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 335 DEGREES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N 54W.  FLOW\r\nAROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR LISA.  THE\r\n00Z AVN AND NOGAPS INDICATE THAT BOTH FEATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE\r\nFORCED N TO NE BY THE DEEP LOW TO CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY FOLLOW SUIT. \r\nBY 72 HOURS...THE AVN SHOWS LISA MERGING WITH THE ASSOCIATED\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT THERE IS SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AS LARGE AS THIS CAN BE SO QUICKLY AND COMPLETELY ABSORBED AT\r\nSUCH A LOW LATITUDE...NEAR 30N.  THE NOGAPS SHOWS A HYBRID SYSTEM\r\nEVENTUALLY DEVELOPING FROM THE INTERACTION.  EITHER WAY...\r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ACCELERATION IS LIKELY BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DIMINISHED IN COVERAGE...\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM IF LISA BEGINS TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE NE.  THE STORM COULD ALSO STRENGTHEN LATER ON IN RESPONSE\r\nTO BAROCLINIC EFFECTS.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL SCHEMES INDICATE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 17.2N  49.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 18.0N  49.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 19.6N  49.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.3N  47.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 23.9N  45.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 31.0N  41.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 06 1998\r\n \r\nLISA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AHEAD OF\r\nA MAJOR MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND AROUND\r\nA LARGE UPPER-LOW CENTERED NEAR 21N 55W.  THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING\r\nMID TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES BASICALLY OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN AS CLEARLY SEEN ON WV IMAGES.  IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN...LISA HAS RECURVED AND IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED OVER OPEN WATER THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nSINCE LISA IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...ON THE SAME DIRECTION OF THE\r\nUPPER FLOW...THE RELATIVE SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND CONSEQUENTLY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CURRENTLY BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION. THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT LISA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED BUT WE\r\nWOULD RATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE CENTER REMAINS UNDER THE OVERCAST TO\r\nADJUST THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  NEVERTHELESS...ONLY A SMALL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 18.0N  48.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N  47.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  46.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 23.5N  44.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 26.5N  41.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 33.0N  37.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND SOME ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS\r\nAROUND A STRONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH CUTTING OFF A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS\r\nTHE GFDL...AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM A\r\nDRIFTING BOUY LOCATED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.O T NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT\r\n45 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 18.9N  48.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  47.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 22.0N  45.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 24.5N  43.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 27.5N  40.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 36.0N  40.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 06 1998\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 21N 53W.  SINCE LISA IS MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...THE SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WOULD BE FOR A\r\nWESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nPREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.   THE UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE\r\nDRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD.  IF THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST\r\nAND LISA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEAST...THE HIGH-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE\r\nSTORM MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR SO. \r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER TO\r\nTHE NORTH WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED SHEAR LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH USES THE AVN MODEL FORECAST\r\nWINDS...SHOWS SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAND AN INCREASE THEREAFTER.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD CONSTANT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BY 72 HOURS LISA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE COMBINING WITH A FRONTAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC...AND SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nAS USUAL FOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...WITHOUT VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES...IT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER.  HOWEVER THE\r\nTPC 2-INFRARED CHANNEL COMBINATION IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER\r\nIS VERY LIKELY NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE\r\nOVERCAST.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER...040/09.\r\n\r\nA LARGE 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL TO\r\nPRODUCE A STRONG CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  LISA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND TO THE 18Z GFDL\r\nMODEL RUN ALBEIT NOT AS FAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 19.6N  48.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 20.8N  46.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  45.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  43.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 28.0N  40.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 38.0N  40.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 07 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE\r\nACTIVITY.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS...WHICH IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES WHICH RANGE FROM 35 KNOTS AT\r\nKGWC...45 KNOTS AT SAB...AND 55 KNOTS AT TAFB.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES NO STRENGTHENING...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIFOR\r\nAND SHIPS GUIDANCE.  ONLY THE GFDL SUGGESTS INTENSIFICATION...WHICH\r\nIS STILL A POSSIBILITY IF THE SHEAR DIMINISHES TEMPORARILY AS LISA\r\nMOVES AWAY FROM THE COLD LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  BY 72 HOURS LISA IS EXPECTED TO BE COMBINING WITH A\r\nFRONTAL CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND SHOULD BE LOSING ITS\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10.  GLOBAL MODELS PRODUCE A CUT-OFF\r\nLOW WITHIN THE LARGE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nWITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  LISA SHOULD BE STEERED AROUND THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THIS LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE NAVY NOGAPS...GFDL...AVIATION...AND DEEP LAYER BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 19.8N  47.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.3N  46.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 24.0N  44.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 27.5N  42.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 32.0N  41.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 40.0N  45.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 07 1998\r\n \r\nLISA IS VERY CLOSE TO ONE OF THE DRIFTING BUOYS WHICH JUST REPORTED\r\nWINDS TO NEAR 60 KNOTS WHILE SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 45\r\nTO 50 KNOTS.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY UNDER THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS SHEARED.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS AND NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nIN THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER... THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IF THE RELATIVE SHEAR DIMINISHES TEMPORARILY AS LISA\r\nMOVES WITHIN THE PREVAILING DEEP LAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.\r\n \r\nLISA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AHEAD OF A\r\nDEVELOPING MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  LISA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND A 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW WHICH FORECAST\r\nTO FORM TO ITS WEST.  MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO TURN LISA NORTHWARD\r\nAND EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IS RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF\r\nLOW.  LISA WOULD PROBABLY INTERACT WITH THE LOW AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 21.0N  46.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 22.7N  44.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 25.5N  42.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  40.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 42.0N  40.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 07 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LISA HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHEARED.  INITIAL IS 50 KNOTS\r\nAND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK NUMBERS AND CHRIS VELDEN'S HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION ANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS.  NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  HOWEVER... THERE\r\nIS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE RELATIVE SHEAR\r\nDIMINISHES TEMPORARILY AS LISA MOVES WITHIN THE PREVAILING DEEP\r\nLAYER MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.\r\n \r\nLISA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS AHEAD OF A\r\nDEVELOPING MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  LISA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND A 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO FORM TO ITS WEST.  MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO TURN LISA\r\nNORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING\r\nCUT-OFF LOW.  LISA WILL PROBABLY INTERACT WITH THE LOW AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 22.0N  45.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 23.3N  43.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 26.0N  41.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 29.5N  39.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 33.5N  39.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 42.5N  39.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 07 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LISA REMAINS SHEARED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-\r\nWESTERLY FLOW.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH DVORAK NUMBERS.  NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST\r\nAS THE SHEARING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nLISA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A\r\nDEVELOPING MAJOR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 040/17 KTS.  LISA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH\r\nAROUND A 500 MB CUT-OFF LOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO FORM TO ITS WEST. \r\nMOST OF THE MODELS ALSO TURN LISA NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW.  LISA WILL\r\nPROBABLY INTERACT WITH THE LOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 23.5N  43.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 25.6N  41.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 29.0N  40.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 33.0N  39.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 37.5N  38.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 47.0N  37.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-10-08 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 08 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS WHICH IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS ANALYSTS.  NO\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/22.  THE FUTURE MOTION OF LISA WILL\r\nBE CLOSELY TIED TO THE 500 MB LOW FORECAST TO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL GO RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THIS\r\nLOW AS INDICATED ON THE UKMET MODEL... OR SLOW DOWN AND MOVE AROUND\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 500 MB LOW...OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO \r\nTHE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  FOR NOW WE MAINTAIN THE SEPARATE IDENTITY OF\r\nLISA AND NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD INDICATE A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD MOTION AND EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE 500 MB LOW.  THIS IS GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nPREDICTION MODELS.  OUR 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE NOGAPS RUN AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 25.5N  41.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 28.0N  39.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 32.5N  38.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 37.0N  39.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 40.0N  40.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 43.0N  43.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 08 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED GIVING THE APPEARANCE THAT\r\nLISA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. THE STORM HAS SOME BANDING FEATURES\r\nAND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THIS APPARENT STRENGTHENING WAS\r\nPROBABLY CAUSED EITHER BY THE EFFECT OF A WEAKER SHEAR OR TROUGH\r\nINTERACTION...OR BOTH.  INDEED...THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT\r\nHIGHER BUT SINCE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nLISA IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD...ABOUT 23 KNOTS...AHEAD OF A COLD\r\nFRONT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nBECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONTAL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE MODELS AND MAKES LISA EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 27.6N  39.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  38.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 35.0N  38.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 39.0N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 43.5N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 49.5N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 08 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES...A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND AN\r\nEYE TRYING TO FORM.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT LISA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  WINDS ARE ADJUSTED TO 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME BUT IF THE\r\nEYE BECOMES EVIDENT...WE WILL HAVE TO INCREASE THE WINDS.  \r\n \r\nLISA IS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...ABOUT 24 KNOTS...AHEAD OF A\r\nCOLD FRONT.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONTAL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODELS AND MAKES LISA EXTRATROPICAL BY 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 30.6N  37.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 34.0N  36.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 39.0N  36.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 43.5N  36.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 48.3N  36.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 08 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0/3.0/3.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...GLOBAL\r\nRESPECTIVELY. SSM/I IMAGERY AT 1900 GMT SHOWED A WELL STRUCTURED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A MAJOR BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND ON THE\r\nEAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER.  INITIAL WINDS REMAIN AT 60 KNOTS\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nLISA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  CURRENT MOTION IS 355/40 KNOTS.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION\r\nCONTINUE TO MERGE LISA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THEN MOVE THE\r\nCOMBINED SYSTEM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS KEEP\r\nLISA AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND MOVE IT NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LAST SOLUTION BUT MAKES THE\r\nSYSTEM EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 34.7N  37.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 40.5N  38.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 47.0N  39.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 50.0N  35.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-10-09 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/37.  THE AVIATION MODEL AS WELL\r\nAS OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM BEING SWEPT NORTHWARD BY A\r\nDEEP CUTOFF EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE MODELS\r\nTHEN SHOW A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE EAST IN 24 HOURS AS THE STORM RUNS\r\nINTO WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE\r\nAND IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS FOLLOWING DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS.  AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR WHERE THE\r\nCENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n \r\nLISA IS NOT LOOKING VERY TROPICAL.  IT IS BEING STEERED BY A HUGE\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW AND HAS FRONTAL TYPE CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED THAT\r\nEXTEND A THOUSAND MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THIS SYSTEM\r\nWILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY AND TURNED OVER TO\r\nTHE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 39.0N  38.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 44.5N  37.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 50.0N  32.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 51.0N  23.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 51.0N  13.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-10-09 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 09 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA IS STILL SEPARATED FROM THE\r\nFRONTAL LOW AND T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN FACT...\r\nBOTH TAFB AND KGWC HAVE BEEN CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A 4.0 DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.   THEREFORE...LISA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A\r\nHURRICANE AT THIS TIME BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER\r\nTODAY OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND THEN TURNED\r\nOVER TO THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.  \r\n \r\nLISA IS RACING NORTHWARD ABOUT 38 KNOTS. ONCE LISA BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 43.5N  39.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 47.0N  39.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 50.5N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-10-09 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 09 1998\r\n\r\nLISA HAS BEGUN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE COLD\r\nWATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST\r\nTO RACE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY\r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON LISA.  \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 49.0N  39.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 55.0N  34.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC\r\nAND THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE PAST WEEK HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAND BASED ON DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE...THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE PLANE FOUND\r\nA TIGHT CENTER OF 1001 MB AND MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n39 KNOTS INDICATING THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY NEAR TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AT THIS\r\nTIME.  HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ITS OWN\r\nOUTFLOW AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE\r\nFORMING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nIN ABOUT 36 HOURS...A PATTERN WHICH IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL BRING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.     \r\n \r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL MOTION SINCE THE SYSTEM\r\nJUST FORMED BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/08.   ALL OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLIPER...TURN THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nWEAKENS AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES A HURRICANE\r\nBETWEEN SWAN ISLAND AND GRAND CAYMAN BY 72 HOURS...A POTENTIALLY\r\nDANGEROUS SITUATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. \r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. ALL\r\nINTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 12.8N  77.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.2N  79.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N  80.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N  81.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N  82.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N  82.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nFAIRLY STRONG...THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES SO\r\nFAR.  NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...PROBABLY\r\nDUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AN\r\nINCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME.\r\n\r\nAN EARLIER RECON FIX SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE NORTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS WAS ALSO SHOWN BY AN 85 GHZ IMAGE\r\nFROM THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY TROPICAL CYCLONE HOMEPAGE.  THE\r\nCURRENT LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE MOVED MOSTLY WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.   \r\n\r\nA LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE SWEEPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE 06Z RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SHOWS A 500 MB WEAKNESS EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE\r\nTROUGH INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THIS IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK\r\nPREDICTION MODELS ALTHOUGH THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\nTHE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM\r\nTRACK. \r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM SINCE TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 12.7N  78.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.0N  79.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  80.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  81.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N  82.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N  83.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE SEEN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nTD...THE SYSTEM RETAINS AN OTHERWISE RATHER AMORPHOUS STRUCTURE AT\r\nTHIS POINT.  CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN.  A\r\nSHIP NEAR 12N 76W REPORTED EAST WINDS AT 12Z...BUT THE ACCURACY OF\r\nTHEIR WIND DIRECTION IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION ACCORDING TO THE MARINE\r\nPREDICTION CENTER .  IF THE OBSERVATION IS VALID...THEN THE CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION IS NOW LOCATED TO THE SE OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. \r\nTHE REQUIRES SOME SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER POSITION...\r\nAND IMPLIES LITTLE OR NO MOTION.  THE MOTION...STRUCTURE AND\r\nINTENSITY SHOULD BE BETTER KNOWN AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARRIVE\r\nTHERE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z NOGAPS AND 06Z AVN AND GFDL INDICATE THAT AFTER THE STRONG\r\n500 MB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH...A RESIDUAL TROUGH\r\nHANGS BACK NEAR THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN CONTRAST...AT\r\n850 MB...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE\r\nNW...GIVING LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES.  IN COMBINATION...THIS\r\nDISTRIBUTION YIELDS SOME SHEAR AND A LIGHT STEERING CURRENT TO THE\r\nNW ON AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS THE NHC FORECAST.  ALL\r\nAVAILABLE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A NW HEADING.\r\n \r\nAT UPPER LEVELS...THERE IS A COL LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE TD...A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.  THE MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING OVER THE CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  BY THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...THE GFDL SHIFTS THE CENTER OF THE\r\n200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SHOWS A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE NW CARIBBEAN.  THAT PATTERN WOULD NOT BE SO CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE SLOW AND UNCERTAIN MOVEMENT ALLOWS/REQUIRES SOME DELAY IN\r\nISSUING WATCHES AND WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 12.0N  78.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 12.4N  78.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.2N  79.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.8N  79.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.7N  80.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N  81.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FOR THE\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE CYCLONE IS APPARENTLY\r\nMOVING IN A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP.  FOR NOW...IT WILL BE CONSIDERED\r\nQUASI-STATIONARY.  THE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED 51 KT WINDS AT THE 1500\r\nFT FLIGHT LEVEL.  USING THIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM MITCH WITH 40 KT SURFACE WINDS.  THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE\r\nSMALL WITH RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED TO BE 8 NM AT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL.\r\n \r\nTHE 12Z AVN RESEMBLES THE PREDECESSORS.  SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGHS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE U.S. SE COAST LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE HEIGHT FIELD IN THAT AREA AFTER THE INITIAL STRONG SYSTEM PASSES\r\nOFFSHORE.  A MINOR RIDGE SETTLES IN OVER THE SE UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nALLOWS FOR A SLOW NW TO NNW MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AS\r\nSHOWN BY ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIN CONTRAST TO THE RUN AT 06Z...THE 12Z GFDL SHOWS THE PRIMARY\r\nFEATURES AT 200 MB LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH THE\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE DOWNSTREAM\r\nTROUGH AXIS A BIT TO THE EAST OF MITCH.  THIS IS A LITTLE MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION THAN FORECAST BY THAT\r\nMODEL 6 HOURS AGO...AND COULD BE WHY IT IS SHOWING MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE AVN HAS THIS COUPLET CENTERED EVEN FARTHER EAST\r\nWITH THE HIGH NEAR MITCH--A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN.  MITCH IS NOW\r\nFORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWHILE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT YET NECESSARY...INTERESTS IN THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF MITCH.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 11.5N  77.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.1N  78.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.1N  78.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.2N  78.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.3N  79.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N  80.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n\r\nMITCH HAS COMPLETED A CYCLONIC LOOP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nAND NOW IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ONCE THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY SWINGING ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVES OUT...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP IN THAT AREA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER MITCH ON A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK.   MODELS RESPOND TO THAT BUILDING RIDGE AND\r\nMOVE THE STORM NORTHERLY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY.  THE MODELS\r\nDISAGREE BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN THE GFDL AND NOGAPS TURN THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD WHILE THE OTHERS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK.   NEVERTHELESS...AT LONGER RANGE...ANOTHER\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE UNITED STATES...AND\r\nWILL PROBABLY FORCE MITCH TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD AGAIN AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY NOGAPS AND THE UK MODELS.  BOTH MODELS PLACE MITCH NEAR THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL BY DAY 5. IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE GOING TO BE BUSY\r\nFOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n  \r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER IS\r\nUNDER DEEP CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A\r\n200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...A PATTERN WHICH IS\r\nVERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  MITCH IS A 45-KNOT TROPICAL STORM\r\nAND IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL. \r\n\r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED YET...BUT INTERESTS IN THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM\r\nWHICH COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 12.3N  77.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N  77.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N  78.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N  78.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N  79.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N  80.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE INTENSITY HAS WANED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF MITCH IS HEALTHY.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY EXHIBITS WELL-DEFINED BANDING AND FAIR OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS \r\nIS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 AND 55 KNOTS...\r\nRESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS.  THE 00Z\r\nNCEP AND NAVY GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM EARLIER\r\nRUNS OF MOVING THE UPPER LOW OVER HONDURAS SOUTHWEST ALLOWING AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...\r\nA FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. HENCE... CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE \r\nAND THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS.  \r\n  \r\nMITCH HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THEN NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE BAHAMAS LIFTS OUT ALLOWING A \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nSTEER MITCH ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...AS ADVERTISED BY MOST \r\nOF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.  ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL AND NOGAPS TURN\r\nMITCH TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST...THE EARLIEST...NEAR 16N. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nANOTHER U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION IS\r\nSCHEDULED LATER TODAY.  \r\n \r\nNO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME BUT INTERESTS IN\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM WHICH COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 13.0N  77.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.9N  77.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N  78.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.9N  78.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N  79.3W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N  81.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n\r\nMITCH IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...THE CONVECTION IS WEAK.  UNEXPECTED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nDISRUPTING THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW WHICH WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL DETERMINE IF MITCH HAS WEAKENED AS\r\nSUSPECTED.   ALL AVAILABLE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE SHOULD FORM OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO.  SUCH A PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE EXCELLENT CONDITIONS \r\nFOR STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BRING\r\nMITCH TO A 75- AND 100-KNOT HURRICANE... RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...IT\r\nIS DIFFICULT TO VISUALIZE SUCH INTENSIFICATION WITH THE PRESENT\r\nPOORLY DEFINED PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND KNOWING THAT\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO GET RID OF WESTERLIES TOO FAST.  AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IF MITCH SURVIVES...THEN..STRENGTHENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN. \r\n\r\nMITCH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND LITTLE MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND\r\nBE REPLACED BY A RIDGE.  CONSEQUENTLY...A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nSHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS WHICH ARE FORECASTING MITCH TO BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN IN 3 DAYS. \r\n \r\nNO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME BUT INTERESTS IN\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 12.7N  77.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.9N  78.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N  78.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.8N  78.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N  79.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N  81.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nMITCH HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY. IT CONTINUES TO\r\nHAVE WELL DEFINED CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM BUT LACKS\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION AND CENTRAL FEATURES.  RECON JUST MEASURED A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB NAD 50 KNOT WINDS.  THE WESTERLY WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LOW WHICH FORMED JUST WEST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS DISRUPTING THE OUTFLOW AND AS LONG THIS FEATURE IS\r\nPRESENT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY.  UNANIMOUSLY...ALL MODELS\r\nWEAKEN THE UPPER-LOW AND DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT 200 MB ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER MITCH. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF WESTERLIES\r\nRELAXING AT THIS TIME.  IF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS...IT\r\nWOULD BE AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BRING MITCH TO HURRICANE STATUS.  KNOWING\r\nTHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO GET RID OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TOO\r\nFAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IF MITCH SURVIVES...THEN\r\nSTRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nMITCH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OR JUST A NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nSHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS WHICH ARE FORECASTING MITCH TO STAY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nNO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME BUT INTERESTS IN\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 13.0N  78.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.1N  78.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N  78.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 14.7N  78.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.5N  79.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N  81.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED TO THE\r\nCIRCULATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE TREND IS FOR THIS\r\nCLOUDINESS TO BE GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS A CDO TYPE\r\nAREA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE TO UP 55 KNOTS.  THE LAST\r\nRECON FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE HRD OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GIVES A MAX WIND OF 43 KNOTS.\r\nTHE INITIAL OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST\r\nIS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND\r\nTHE ABSENCE OF ANY OBVIOUS NEGATIVE FACTORS TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. \r\nA REMINDER THAT INTENSITY FORECAST SKILL IS QUITE LIMITED AND\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR MUCH FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORT TERM CONVECTIVE TREND TURNS OUT\r\nTO BE A SERIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW SLOW MOTION FOR 72 HOURS...MOSTLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...EXCEPT THE AVIATION AND GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE\r\nNORTHWARD FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THIS SLOW MOTION IS\r\nRELATED TO A 500 MB HIGH FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nAND BLOCK THE STORMS FORWARD MOTION.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE WITH A SLOW MOTION...MOSTLY NORTHWARD FOR 24\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO THE SLOW\r\nMOTION...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 12 AND 24 HOURS.  IN ANY CASE THERE APPEARS TO\r\nBE NO THREAT TO LAND DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 13.5N  78.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.1N  78.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N  78.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 15.4N  79.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 15.8N  80.1W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N  81.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n \r\nA RAGGED EYE BEGAN APPEARING INTERMITTENTLY AROUND 0415Z AND A\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION BY THE AFWA AT THAT TIME GAVE A T-NUMBER OF\r\n4.5.  THE 06Z TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES WERE 4.5 AND 4.0...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARRIVED IN THE AREA ABOUT 06Z\r\nAND FOUND THE CENTER TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SE OF THE POSITION\r\nINFERRED FROM SATELLITE PICTURES.  THEY ALSO FOUND HINTS OF AN EYE\r\n...992 MB PRESSURE...AND 64 KT AT 850 MB. TWO HOURS LATER...THEY HAD\r\nA PARTIAL EYEWALL...988 MB...AND 91 KT AT 850 MB.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.\r\n \r\nMITCH HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD 015 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KT OVER THE PAST\r\n6 TO 12 HOURS.  THIS MOTION COULD HAVE BEEN INDUCED BY THE\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST.  THAT\r\nFEATURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND TO BE FOLLOWED BY RIDGING. \r\nTHERE WAS NO 00Z RUN OF THE GFDL...BUT THE REMAINING TRACK MODELS\r\nAND THE 18Z GFDL RESPOND TO THESE STEERING FEATURES BY SHOWING A\r\nRATHER SHARP BEND IN THE TRACK TOWARD THE LEFT AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\nIN FACT...NONE OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS HAVE MITCH NORTH OF 17N BY 36\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE...BUT\r\nMAKES THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THEN ALL BUT\r\nONE OF THE MODELS...ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH OF JAMAICA.  THIS MIGHT BE\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...OR POSSIBLY A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH...COULD BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR THAT ISLAND.\r\n \r\nWITH STRENGTHENING HAVING RESUMED...AND A FUTURE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFAVORING ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE RECON DATA AND\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP ZCBN5.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 14.3N  77.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.2N  77.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.1N  77.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.7N  78.1W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N  79.1W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N  81.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/06.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND\r\nAVIATION MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  ONLY THE LBAR AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE WILL GET\r\nPICKED UP BY A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nGFDL WAS NOT AVAILABLE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BEING INFLUENCED BY THE LBAR FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR JAMAICA.  IF A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...A WARNING WILL BE NEEDED\r\nFOR JAMAICA VERY SOON.\r\n \r\nAN IMPRESSIVE CDO HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN\r\nCONNECTION WITH THE STRENGTHENING TREND INDICATED ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THERE IS ALSO A HINT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE FORMING.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 90 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS AND A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL FLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  WITH AN ABSENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE\r\nFORECAST IS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 100 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 14.9N  77.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.8N  78.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.8N  78.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.2N  80.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING 355 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nARE DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.  IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MOVES\r\nMITCH TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND KEEPS IT MEANDERING\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS.  ONLY CLIPER CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK.   I WOULD RATHER FOLLOW STATE OF THE ART\r\nDYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS AND FORECAST THE WESTWARD TURN. \r\n\r\nRECON JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 976 MB AND A DROPSONDE IN\r\nTHE EYEWALL MEASURED 93 KNOTS AT LOW LEVELS.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nREVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH\r\nA WELL DEFINED EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  MODELS\r\nDID AN EXCELLENT JOB IN DEVELOPING THE 200MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nHURRICANE...CONTRARY TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED YESTERDAY. SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHEREFORE...MITCH IS EXPECTED TO REACH AT LEAST 120 KNOTS BY 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR JAMAICA AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN\r\nCUBA.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE FORECAST NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE\r\n...CUBA SHOULD BE READY TO EXTEND OR SHIFT THE HURRICANE WATCH TO\r\nCENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO\r\nISSUE A WATCH OR A WARNING.  \r\n\r\nNOTE: THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME TIME FOR THE LONG RANGE PATTERN\r\nTO CHANGE AND CONSEQUENTLY A FUTURE CHANGE IN THE TRACK.  INTERESTS\r\nIN THE ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS\r\nHURRICANE. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 15.3N  78.2W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N  78.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N  78.6W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  79.5W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N  80.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N  82.5W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-10-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING 340 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE\r\nTHE BEGINNING OF THE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE DEVELOPING A VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE HURRICANE\r\nIS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND WEST.  LATEST GFDL CONTINUES TO MOVE MITCH TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND KEEPS IT MEANDERING NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS.  OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  \r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTENSIFYING HURRICANE WITH T\r\nNUMBERS OF 6.0 AND 5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 105 KTS...CATEGORY 3.  SHIPS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN\r\nIDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...MITCH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REACH 115 KTS IN 12 HOURS AND CATEGORY 4 IN 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nDUE TO THE FORECAST NORTHWEST TURN OF THE HURRICANE ...CUBA SHOULD\r\nBE READY TO EXTEND OR SHIFT THE HURRICANE WATCH TO CENTRAL OR\r\nWESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO ISSUE A\r\nWATCH OR A WARNING.\r\n \r\nNOTE: THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME TIME FOR THE LONG RANGE PATTERN\r\nTO CHANGE AND CONSEQUENTLY A FUTURE CHANGE IN THE TRACK.  INTERESTS\r\nIN THE ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 15.7N  78.4W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.2N  78.6W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.9N  79.1W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.7N  79.9W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N  80.9W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.3N  83.0W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-10-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nPRESSURE DROP OF 27 MB OVER 13 HOURS.  MAX WINDS FROM A FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nOF 10000 FEET ARE 119 KNOTS SO FAR.  SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE\r\nESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY WELL\r\nESTABLISHED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE NOAA JET FLEW IN THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE HURRICANE YESTERDAY\r\nAFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FOUND A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF MITCH.  THIS RIDGE HAS TURNED THE HURRICANE MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 295/06. \r\nHOWEVER...MOST MODELS WEAKEN THIS RIDGE WITH TIME.  NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHIS FORECAST PERIOD A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT THESE FEATURES APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR AWAY\r\nFROM THE HURRICANE TO PRODUCE ANY WELL-DEFINED STEERING FOR MITCH.\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nAND WE COULD SEE SOME MEANDERING OF THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  CURRENT TRACK CONTINUES THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST\r\nNORTHWEST BUT WITH A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET MODELS BOTH PRACTICALLY STALL THE HURRICANE AFTER 36 HOURS\r\n...WHILE THE NAVY NOGAPS CONTINUES A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH COAST OF HONDURAS.\r\n\r\nNOTE: THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE VERY SLOWLY THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME TIME FOR THE LONG RANGE PATTERN\r\nTO CHANGE AND CONSEQUENTLY A FUTURE CHANGE IN THE TRACK COULD OCCUR.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE ENTIRE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THIS STRENGTHENING HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 16.0N  79.2W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N  80.1W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.7N  81.0W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N  81.7W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  82.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N  83.5W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-10-25 12:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM EST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AS A RESULT OF A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH BEING ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  THE\r\nTRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1200Z 16.2N  79.5W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N  80.1W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.7N  81.0W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N  81.7W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  82.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N  83.5W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-10-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/06.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW\r\nA SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HURS.  THE GFDL AND\r\nNOGAPS ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST MODELS SHOWING A POSSIBLE THREAT TO\r\nHONDURAS IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR SLOW WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE IS AT ITS POINT OF\r\nCLOSEST APPROACH TO JAMAICA AT THIS TIME.  THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO\r\nPASS WITHIN 125 NMI OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON REPORTED 942 MB AND 124 KNOTS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF\r\n700 MB AND THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.\r\nTHE FORECAST IS FOR THE WIND SPEED TO PEAK AT 120 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 16.3N  79.8W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.7N  80.7W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N  81.8W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.2N  82.6W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 17.4N  83.1W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N  84.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-10-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE\r\nSLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION\r\nMODEL SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS BUT STILL VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MOTION IS SO\r\nSLOW THAT THE GFDL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS CONSIDERED TO BE IN THE\r\nNOISE LEVEL.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS NOW CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS SO THAT A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING WOULD SOON BE APPROPRIATE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS FALLEN TO 924 MB BASED ON A RECENT RECON FIX AND A FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWIND SPEED OF 155 KNOTS WAS REPORTED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM 1-MIN SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS.  MITCH\r\nCOULD SOON BECOME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON\r\nSCALE.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 16.6N  80.7W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.8N  81.7W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.2N  82.6W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  83.0W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N  83.5W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  84.0W   115 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-10-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n...CORRECTED NICARAGUA TO HONDURAS IN LAST PARAGRAPH... \r\nMITCH CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT ALL OF THE CLASSICAL FEATURES OF A VERY\r\nINTENSE HURRICANE.  A WELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI DIAMETER EYE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.  A SYMMETRICAL AND\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IN EVIDENCE.\r\nTHE 130-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE. \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PENETRATIONS SINCE 1903Z\r\nBUT ANOTHER PLANE IS DUE TO MAKE A CENTER FIX AROUND 05Z...AND WE\r\nSHALL SEE IF MITCH HAS STRENGTHENED EVEN MORE.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS\r\nWEAK AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN 29 DEG C OVER THE\r\nAREA...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nBUT CURRENT MOVEMENT IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 7 KNOTS.\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED.  ONE KEY FACTOR FOR THE\r\nSTEERING OF MITCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS HOW MUCH MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGING THERE WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nTRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE GIVING A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...BUT THE\r\nLATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MITCH\r\nWEAKENING SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nINDICATED BY THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWS A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD...BUT SLOW...MOTION DEVELOPING SOON.   A NORTHWARD TURN IS\r\nALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD. \r\nREGARDLESS...THIS TRACK STILL KEEPS MITCH OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE CURRENT WESTWARD TRACK...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE\r\nRECOMMENDED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS.  IT WAS NOT\r\nPOSSIBLE TO COORDINATE THESE WARNINGS WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL\r\nSERVICE OF THAT COUNTRY DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 16.4N  81.7W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 16.4N  82.5W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N  83.2W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.6N  83.8W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.0N  84.5W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N  84.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-10-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON OCT 26 1998\r\n \r\nU.S. AIR FORCE RESERVES REPORTED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 923 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nSYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY\r\nCOLD CONVECTIVE TOPS.  SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED\r\nAT 130 KNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED\r\nAND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE TODAY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CONTINUES TO\r\nBE A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW THIS CHANGES WITH TIME IS CRUCIAL.\r\nTHE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS DOES\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE\r\nWEAKENING AND INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD...BUT SLOW...TRACK.  IN ANY\r\nCASE...THE MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW\r\nWHICH LEAVES THE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 16.5N  82.3W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 16.6N  83.0W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.8N  83.7W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.1N  84.3W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.6N  84.8W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.5N  85.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-10-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON OCT 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/07...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE HURRICANE MEANDERING\r\nNORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HOURS.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nSHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION AS A HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DRIFTS \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND BLOCKS THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nDRIFTS THE HURRICANE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD...BUT SUCH\r\nSLOW FORWARD SPEED MAKES THE DIRECTION OF MOTION HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE MAXIMUM 1-MIN SURFACE WIND IS INCREASED TO 135 KNOTS BASED ON\r\n7.0 TO 7.5 DVORAK T NUMBERS.  THIS IS STILL A CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE WIND SPEED.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL WHICH\r\nINDICATES THAT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nMAINTAIN 135 KT WINDS FOR 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nI HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT BELIZE OR HONDURAS FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nIT MAY SOON BE TIME TO CONSIDER A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BELIZE AND THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. \r\n\r\nLAWRENCE \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 16.7N  82.9W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.8N  83.8W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.2N  84.7W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.5N  84.8W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.8N  84.9W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.0N  85.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-10-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON OCT 26 1998\r\n \r\nMITCH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL PRESSURE IS\r\n906 MB.  A WIND SPEED OF 173 KNOTS WAS MEASURED FROM A GPS\r\nDROPSONDE AT 500 FT AT ABOUT 1900Z.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO\r\n155 KNOTS AT 21Z ON THIS BASIS.  THIS MAY BE THE STRONGEST ATLANTIC\r\nBASIN HURRICANE IN RECENT YEARS TO BE OBSERVED AS LATE AS OCTOBER\r\n26.  IT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNLIKELY FOR THIS STRENGTH TO PERSIST\r\nAND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT\r\nMITCH IS EXPECTED STILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07.  ONCE AGAIN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE SLOW MOTION WITH A 500 MB HIGH PERSISTING\r\nOVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GFDL MEANDERS THE HURRICANE\r\nNORTHWARD AND SHOWS A POSITION STILL IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IN\r\nFIVE (5) DAYS.  THE NOGAPS SHOWS A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN\r\nTHREE DAYS AND THE UKMET SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...REACHING\r\nBELIZE OR MEXICO IN THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE ABOVE MODELS SHOWING VERY SLOW MOTION FOR 72 HOURS WITH A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nIT IS NOT YET CLEAR WHICH COUNTRY OR COUNTRIES IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN ARE MOST THREATENED.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE HURRICANE TO\r\nHONDURAS MOTIVATED THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS TO ISSUE A HURRICANE\r\nWARNING FOR ALL OF THEIR COASTLINE.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 17.1N  83.6W   155 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  84.4W   155 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N  85.2W   150 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N  85.4W   140 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 18.2N  85.5W   135 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N  85.5W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-10-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON OCT 26 1998\r\n\r\nTHE EYE CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED AND THE UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE.  LATEST DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB IN WASHINGTON AND THE TPC CONTINUE TO\r\nSUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 155 KNOTS...HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN\r\nSOME EROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE...WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY CONDITION.  IT\r\nIS VERY UNUSUAL FOR HURRICANES TO MAINTAIN SUCH GREAT INTENSITY FOR\r\nVERY LONG...BUT HURRICANES SUCH AS THESE ARE RARE EVENTS THEMSELVES.\r\n\r\nMITCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR AT\r\nLEAST A DAY OR TWO.  THE MAIN FACTOR GOVERNING WHETHER MITCH WILL\r\nMAINTAIN SUCH INTENSITY...OTHER THAN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES\r\nWHICH CAN CAUSE SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS...IS INCREASED VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  THIS SHEAR MAY BE PRODUCED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY\r\nIMPINGE ON MITCH.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  OUR TRACK PREDICTION\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD.  THE 500 MB\r\nHIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CONTINUE TO PUSH MITCH ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH TOWARD BELIZE OR YUCATAN...AND\r\nTHIS IS SHOWN BY THE BETA/ADVECTION MODELS AND THE U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL.  ON THE OTHER HAND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...NOGAPS...\r\nAND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE LATTER TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH A SUBTLE WESTWARD SHIFT\r\nOF THE ABOVEMENTIONED RIDGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST...WHICH COULD\r\nLEAVE A SLIGHT OPENING TO THE NORTH OF MITCH.  THE LATEST GFDL RUN\r\nSHOWS A SLOW MEANDERING MOTION DEVELOPING IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND\r\nPERSISTING THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nLONGER-TERM MOVEMENT OF MITCH REMAINS SHROUDED IN UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT...BASED ON THE 905 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE MEASURED FROM THE AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY...MITCH IS TIED AS\r\nTHE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  HERE\r\nARE THE RANKINGS:\r\n\r\nGILBERT (1988)...888 MB\r\nUNNAMED (1935)...892 MB\r\nALLEN   (1980)...899 MB\r\nCAMILLE (1969)...905 MB\r\nMITCH   (1998)...905 MB\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 17.4N  84.1W   155 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.7N  85.0W   155 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N  85.5W   150 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 18.2N  85.8W   140 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 18.5N  86.0W   135 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N  86.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-10-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE OCT 27 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO 4TH PARAGRAPH...\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DATA FROM THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF MITCH HAS\r\nRISEN A BIT THIS MORNING...UP TO 917 MB. HOWEVER...THE DROPSONDE\r\nRECORDED 164 KNOTS AT 900 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT\r\nA REMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED EYE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.\r\nAS SUSPECTED EARLIER THE EROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE\r\nNORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE WAS TEMPORARY. IN FACT...THE\r\nCLOUD CANOPY SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND COOLED...WITH\r\nTOPS TO -80 DEG C IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 155 KNOTS...ALSO SUPPORTED BY TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES. AS MENTIONED EARLIER IT IS VERY UNUSUAL FOR\r\nHURRICANES TO REACH...AND MAINTAIN...SUCH GREAT INTENSITY FOR VERY\r\nLONG...BUT HURRICANES SUCH AS THESE ARE RARE EVENTS THEMSELVES.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nMAINTAINING MITCH AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST\r\nA DAY OR TWO.  THE MAIN FACTOR GOVERNING WHETHER MITCH WILL MAINTAIN\r\nSUCH INTENSITY...OTHER THAN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WHICH CAN\r\nCAUSE SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS...IS INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS\r\nSHEAR MAY BE PRODUCED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY IMPINGE ON\r\nMITCH.\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE FIXES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST MITCH IS\r\nMOVING ALMOST DUE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n270/07 KNOTS.  THE 00Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY\r\nMORE FOCUSED ON A MORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS OR SO SUGGESTING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO COULD CONTINUE TO PUSH MITCH TOWARD BELIZE OR\r\nYUCATAN. THEREAFTER...SEVERAL MODELS...NOTABLY LBAR AND THE GFDL...\r\nTURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED\r\nABOVE.  MEANWHILE THE AVIATION AND BETA/ADVECTION MODELS...CONTINUE\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS IMPLYING THAT THE RIDGE\r\nHOLDS IN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nHEADING THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  THIS\r\nREPRESENTS A MODEST LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS MITCH OFFSHORE THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY TO THE COAST...COUPLED WITH OUR HISTORICAL 24-HOUR TRACK\r\nERRORS AND THE STRENGTH OF THIS HURRICANE...WARRANTS STRONG \r\nCONSIDERATION OF UPGRADING THE HURRICANE WATCHES FOR THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA AND BELIZE TO HURRICANE WARNINGS.  THE RESPECTIVE\r\nGOVERNMENTS HAVE BEEN CONTACTED...AND THE WATCHES WILL LIKELY\r\nBE REPLACED WITH HURRICANE WARNINGS AT 0900 UTC.  MEXICO AND\r\nGUATAMALA HAVE BEEN CONTACTED AND WE ARE AWAITING WORD BACK FROM\r\nBELIZE.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST OCTOBER CAT 4/5 HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN WAS\r\nHURRICANE HATTI IN 1961 WHICH REACHED AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 924 MB ON THE 30TH.\r\n \r\nTHE 905 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED FROM THE AIRCRAFT EARLIER TODAY\r\n...MITCH IS TIED AS THE FOURTH STRONGEST HURRICANE OBSERVED IN THE\r\nATLANTIC BASIN.  HERE ARE THE RANKINGS:\r\n \r\nGILBERT (1988)...888 MB\r\nUNNAMED (1935)...892 MB\r\nALLEN   (1980)...899 MB\r\nCAMILLE (1969)...905 MB\r\nMITCH   (1998)...905 MB\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 17.4N  84.8W   155 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N  85.7W   155 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.9N  86.3W   150 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 18.4N  86.6W   140 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 18.7N  86.8W   135 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-10-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE OCT 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/05...BASED ON A POSITION ESTIMATE\r\nFROM A 12Z GOES10 IMAGE.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SLOW\r\nMOTION.  THE GFDL IS ALMOST STATIONARY FOR 72 HOURS AND THE NOGAPS\r\nSHOWS A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD DRIFT.   THE LBAR SHOWS A NORTHWEST\r\nDRIFT.  THE UKMET IS FASTER THAN THE OTHERS AND MOVES THE HURRICANE\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOW WEST TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IT\r\nWOULD ONLY TAKE A 5 KNOT ERROR IN THE FORECAST SPEED OF MOTION FOR\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS ANYWHERE IN THE\r\nWARNING AREA FROM HONDURAS TO THE YUCATAN.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED 10 KNOTS BASED ON THE RAGGEDNESS OF THE\r\nDEEPEST  CONVECTION COMPARED TO EARLIER...ALONG WITH THE 06Z RECON\r\nDATA WHICH SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE UP 12 MB AND SOMEWHAT WEAKER\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR THE WINDS TO\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASE TO 115 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...BASED ON THE SHIPS\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL AND THE PROXIMATY TO LAND.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 17.3N  85.0W   145 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 17.4N  85.8W   145 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.8N  86.5W   140 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N  86.7W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 18.2N  86.9W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N  87.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-10-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE OCT 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/05 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION.\r\nNONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A SOUTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS SLOW WEST TO NORTH\r\nMOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET IS WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS FOR 72\r\nHOURS.  THE GFDL IS SLOW WEST TO NORTHWESTWARD SIMILAR TO THE LBAR\r\nBUT SLOWER.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A LANDFALL FOR THE FIRST TIME...ON THE\r\nBELIZE COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS\r\nUNCERTAIN.  HONDURAS....GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ARE ALL\r\nSTILL POTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS.\r\n \r\nRECENT AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 929 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE...UP 12 MB FROM 12 HOURS AGO.  A DROPSONDE SHOWS\r\nWIND SPEEDS STILL NEAR 130 KNOTS NOT FAR ABOVE THE SURFACE.  THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 135 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST SINCE MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER\r\nTHE ROUGH TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 16.8N  85.8W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.8N  87.3W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.2N  88.0W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.8N  88.5W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 18.5N  89.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-10-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE OCT 27 1998\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA PLANES SHOW A STEADY\r\nRISE.  THIS INDICATES THAT MITCH HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. \r\nHOWEVER...DROPWINDSONDE DATA STILL SHOW HIGH WIND SPEEDS WHICH\r\nSUPPORT CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH.  THE PROXIMITY TO THE LANDMASS OF\r\nHONDURAS...CUTTING OFF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH...HAS\r\nPROBABLY BEEN THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE WEAKENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAPPEARS TO BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA AND IF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE\r\nREMAINS OVER WATER AS FORECAST MITCH WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FORMIDABLE\r\nHURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS EXHIBITED LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL HAS VACILLATED FROM RUN\r\nTO RUN AS TO WHETHER MITCH WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...OR DRIFT\r\nSLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE LATEST SUITE OF OBJECTIVE TRACK\r\nFORECASTS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING...HOWEVER THE\r\nU.K. MET OFFICE MODEL INDICATES A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK.  IT\r\nSUFFICES TO SAY THAT THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS ILL-DEFINED.  THE\r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SHOULD BEAR IN\r\nMIND THAT THESE FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN AND THAT THE DANGEROUS\r\nAFFECTS OF THIS HURRICANE COVER A SIZEABLE AREA.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS ARE VERY\r\nDANGEROUS...RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM IS PARTICULARLY\r\nLIFE-THREATENING.  FIFI...A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IN 1974 WHICH MOVED\r\nALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS...CLAIMED OVER 3000 LIVES FROM\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 16.5N  85.6W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N  86.0W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.6N  86.8W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N  87.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N  88.0W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N  88.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-10-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED OCT 28 1998\r\n \r\nMITCH HAS BEEN MEANDERING THIS MORNING BETWEEN THE ISLAND OF GUANAJA\r\nAND THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS.  THE LATEST FIX FROM THE U.S. AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS A FEW TENTHS SOUTH OF\r\nOUR 03Z POSITION...WITH SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.  THE HURRICANE MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF\r\nMAKING A CYCLONIC LOOP.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nMITCH WILL BE HELD STATIONARY WITH A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED\r\nTO BEGIN LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO LOSE DEFINITION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE\r\nLATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT \r\nIS 941 MB...UP 8 MB SINCE THE LAST PENETRATION AROUND 00Z. THE RECON\r\nMESSAGE ALSO MENTIONED THAT THE EYE WAS FILLING IN. THUS...THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nREPORTED WAS 120 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...AS WAS THE CASE IN EARLIER\r\nMISSIONS THE DROPWINDSONDE DATA SHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS NEAR THE\r\nSURFACE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 115 KNOTS...MINIMUM CATEGORY\r\nFOUR STATUS. THE PROXIMITY OF THE HURRICANE TO THE LANDMASS OF\r\nHONDURAS...SERVING TO CUT OFF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH...\r\nHAS PROBABLY BEEN THE PRIMARY CULPRIT BEHIND MITCH/S WEAKENING. WITH\r\nA WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE ANTICIPATION OF THE\r\nRESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD MOTION...WHICH WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BACK OVER WATER...MITCH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A\r\nFORMIDABLE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS OFFER LITTLE TO HELP RESOLVE THE STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE 06Z TRACK MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR 00Z\r\nCOUNTERPARTS DISPLAYING CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. THE SOLUTIONS VARY\r\nFROM A WEST MOTION...THE A98E STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...TO A\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTH MOTION...BAMD AND LBAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK SHOWS A RESUMPTION OF A WEST TRACK BY 12 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nBEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS WITH MITCH MAKING LANDFALL BY\r\n48 HOURS. THIS TRACK REPRESENTS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\n   \r\nVERY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO BATTER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. COPIOUS\r\nRAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR \r\nTHREAT...PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 16.3N  85.6W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N  86.0W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 16.6N  86.8W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N  87.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  88.0W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 19.5N  88.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-10-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED OCT 28 1998\r\n \r\nWHILE MOST OF THE MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE FORECAST\r\nA WESTWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MITCH HAS\r\nMOVED VERY LITTLE...IN FACT LESS THAN 40 NM IN THE PAST 18 HOURS.\r\nTHERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO CAMPS OF FUTURE TRACKS.  THE FIRST INCLUDES\r\nTHE MODEL THAT HAS PERFORMED THE BEST SO FAR...NOGAPS.  THE NOGAPS\r\nHAS PERSISTENTLY INDICATED AN EVENTUAL NORTHWARD MOVEMENT...WHEN ITS\r\nREPRESENTATION OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nSHIFTS EASTWARD OF MITCH/S LONGITUDE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT GFDL...LBAR AND BAMD ARE NOW SIMILAR TO NOGAPS.  THE\r\nREMAINING GUIDANCE IS TOWARD THE WNW TO NW.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nFIRST GROUP...THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHIFTS THE THREE DAY POSITION A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS IS A\r\nSUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY IMPORTANT CHANGE FOR THE U.S. GULF COAST--\r\nMITCH WILL CONTINUE BATTERING PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS...AND COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION\r\nAFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM...BUT NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY.  A CONTINUED INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH\r\nLAND COULD RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING.  PERHAPS UPWELLING WILL LEAD\r\nTO SOME WEAKENING AS WELL.  IF MITCH BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THEN\r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND WOULD LIKELY BE ARRESTED AND EVEN SOME\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE RECON DATA SHOW A PAIR OF WIND MAXIMA IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE RADII FOR 64 KT AND 50 KT HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO\r\nCOVER THE OUTERMOST LOCATION OF THESE SPEEDS.\r\n \r\nVERY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.  RAINFALL FROM THIS\r\nSLOW-MOVING HURRICANE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR THREAT...PRODUCING\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 16.4N  85.6W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.6N  85.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.1N  86.3W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.7N  86.8W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.7N  87.2W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N  87.5W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-10-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED OCT 28 1998\r\n \r\nMITCH HAS DRIFTED TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...\r\nAND THIS RUN OF THE BAM SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE.  ALTHOUGH A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH OR TWO WILL BE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF MITCH\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MUCH OF THE REMAINING 12Z GUIDANCE\r\nAGAIN SUGGESTS THAT NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE\r\nLONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE NW MOVES EAST OF MITCH/S LONGITUDE.  THE\r\nNOGAPS SHOWS THIS OCCURRING IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL HAS A\r\nSIMILAR BUT DELAYED PATTERN EVOLUTION...WHILE THE AVN IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER YET.  AS A RESULT...THE NOGAPS ENDS UP IN 72 HOURS IN THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL WHILE THE AVN IS NEAR THE NW TIP OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  THE NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE TWO...AND VERY NEAR OUR\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE NOW UP\r\nTO 960 MB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS LIKELY WEAKENED FROM A COMBINATION OF INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND...UPWELLED COOLER WATERS...AND A POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE AS INFERRED FROM THE DOUBLE WIND MAXIMA NOTED THIS MORNING. \r\nFURTHER WEAKENING WILL BE SHOWN UNTIL THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE.\r\n \r\nSTORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nHONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.  RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING\r\nHURRICANE WILL ALSO BE A MAJOR THREAT...PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 16.4N  85.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N  86.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N  86.7W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N  87.2W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 18.3N  87.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N  87.5W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-10-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED OCT 28 1998\r\n\r\nMITCH HAS BEEN STAGNATED NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN\r\nSO THROUGH TONIGHT.  THE CONTINUED INTERACTION OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF ITS CIRCULATION WITH HONDURAS AND UPWELLING OF COOLER\r\nSHELF WATERS NEAR THE COAST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A STEADY WEAKENING.\r\nLAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A BREAKDOWN OF THE\r\nEYEWALL STRUCTURE.  SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY IF THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY...BUT IF THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER OPEN\r\nWATERS...RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  \r\n\r\nVERY LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. \r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DIVERSE.  THE NOGAPS MODEL\r\nSHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT\r\nOTHER MODELS PREDICT A NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE LATEST\r\nNCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN SHOWS VERY LITTLE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE\r\n500 MB LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THIS MODEL DOES SHOW THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF MITCH\r\nIN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS COULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF\r\nMOTION.  \r\n\r\nBEYOND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PERIOD...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AT 500 MB\r\nMAY BREAK DOWN THE GULF RIDGE AND COULD STEER MITCH TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN.    \r\n \r\nSTORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nHONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.  LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE ALSO\r\nIMPACTING OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. \r\nRAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE IS ALSO A MAJOR THREAT...\r\nPRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 16.3N  86.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N  86.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 17.0N  87.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 17.5N  87.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 18.5N  88.0W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 20.5N  88.0W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-10-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU OCT 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST CENTER FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT PLACES THE CENTER OF MITCH ON THE CAPE OF HONDURAS.\r\nBASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS OF RECON FIXES THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN\r\nDRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND MAYBE DOING ANOTHER CYCLONIC LOOP.  MITCH\r\nWILL BE HELD QUASI-STATIONARY INITIALLY...WITH A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION FORECAST BY 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRECON DATA SHOWS THAT MITCH HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE NOW UP TO 979 MB...A 41 MB RISE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nDROPWINDSONDE DATA SHOWS 74 KNOTS AT 922 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINS ON THE COAST OR DRIFTS FARTHER INLAND...BUT IF\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER OPEN WATERS AS FORECAST RE-STRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY SOME\r\nSCATTER A FAIR NUMBER HAVE REACHED A CONSENSUS ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLIPER...ALL THE MODELS\r\nBRING MITCH INLAND EITHER OVER BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\nTHE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH HAD A NORTHWARD HEADING AT 00Z...NOW SHOWS\r\nA MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING\r\nTHE HURRICANE INTO NORTHERN BELIZE AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT MAINTAINS\r\nTHE SLOW FORWARD SPEED. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP AND NOGAPS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH FORMING EAST OF MITCH IN THE\r\nNEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THIS MAY IMPART A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION LATER \r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nSTORM SURGE...WAVES...AND HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nHONDURAS AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.  LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES ARE ALSO\r\nIMPACTING OTHER COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.\r\nRAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A\r\nMAJOR THREAT...PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 16.0N  85.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N  86.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.9N  87.1W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.6N  87.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 18.5N  88.2W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N  88.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Mitch","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-10-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU OCT 29 1998\r\n \r\nMITCH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS AND THERE\r\nARE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENT EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  DURING THAT PERIOD...THE TRACK MODELS ARE\r\nIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A SLOW NW MOTION...AS NOTED 6\r\nHOURS AGO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES A NW MOTION THROUGH 3\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REFLECTS THIS...BRINGING MITCH TO NEAR THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN OR BELIZE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE GFDL IS\r\nTHE OUTLIER THIS MORNING...SHOWING LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR ANOTHER 3\r\nDAYS.  THE LONGER TERM TRACK REMAINS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE\r\n00Z NOGAPS AND MRF SHOWING AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN OF THE LARGE SCALE\r\nPATTERN TO THE NORTH ALLOWING MITCH TO THEN MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nAND MAYBE THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ON THE EARLY MORNING RECON MISSION\r\nWERE 72 KT.  THE PRESSURE WAS THEN UP TO 987 MB.  INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 65 KT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MITCH WILL WEAKEN BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT IF IT BEGINS TO MOVE AS\r\nFORECAST THEN SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR WHEN THE CENTER PULLS\r\nAWAY FROM LAND AND THE LOCALLY COOLER UPWELLED WATERS.  FOR\r\nNOW...THE WARNINGS ARE UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nMORE RAIN AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FOR\r\nANOTHER DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 16.0N  85.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.2N  86.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  86.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.1N  87.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 18.2N  87.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.5N  88.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-10-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU OCT 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND SATELLITE ANALYSTS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF MITCH IS NOW OVER LAND...HAVING DRIFTED SOUTHWARD TODAY.\r\nHIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT.  STEADY WINDS OF\r\n50 KT WERE REPORTED A FEW HOURS AGO FROM TRUJILLO HONDURAS BY THE\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF HONDURAS.  MITCH IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WITH 50 KT WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNINGS GFDL SHOWS A SOUTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THIS EVENING AND\r\nTHEN A NW HEADING WITH LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 72\r\nHOURS.  THE 12Z NOGAPS IS QUALITATIVELY SIMILAR...AND BOTH ARE\r\nCLOSE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS MADE FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE REPLACED BY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM\r\nHONDURAS THROUGH THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH FOR BELIZE.  AT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW\r\nMITCH BECOMING A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nMORE RAIN AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA FOR\r\nANOTHER DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 15.9N  85.8W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.9N  85.8W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.2N  86.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.8N  86.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.5N  87.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":34,"Date":"1998-10-30 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU OCT 29 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF MITCH REMAINS OVER LAND AND THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES\r\nTO WEAKEN.  CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 45 KNOTS.  IT IS STILL\r\nPRESUMED THAT THE CENTER WILL EMERGE OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE SYSTEM WOULD\r\nBECOME VERY WEAK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.  \r\n\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS\r\nA SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  IN FACT THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS WERE\r\nINITIALIZED WITH A VERY SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  IN SPITE OF\r\nTHIS...ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS PREDICT A WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.  THE NOGAPS...\r\nBAROTROPIC AND THE MEDIUM/DEEP-LAYER BAM SHOW A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTO NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH THIS\r\nGUIDANCE...THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nAT THIS TIME...NONE OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW MITCH BECOMING A THREAT\r\nTO THE UNITED STATES WITHIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nRAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MORE FLOODING\r\nAND MUD SLIDES APPEAR LIKELY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER WESTERN\r\nNICARAGUA...SO THE FLOOD THREAT IN THAT AREA APPEARS TO BE\r\nPARTICULARLY SERIOUS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 15.5N  85.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.8N  85.8W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.4N  86.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.0N  87.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N  87.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":35,"Date":"1998-10-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI OCT 30 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT MITCH HAS\r\nBEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY POSITION\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  ON THE BASIS THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE WILL BE SET AT 255/03 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN FOCUSED ON A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE AVIATION AND NOGAPS GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOPMENT OF \r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE EAST OF THE MITCH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 12 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THEREAFTER.  THIS TRACK IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF MITCH REMAINS OVER LAND AND THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES\r\nTO WEAKEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 35 KNOTS.   THE\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION UNDER THE PRESUMPTION\r\nTHAT THE CENTER WILL EMERGE BACK OVER WATER WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\n...PER THE TRACK FORECAST ABOVE.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN FURTHER\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS. IN FACT THEIR MAY NOT BE\r\nMUCH LEFT OF MITCH IF IT STAYS OVER THE 4000-8000 FT TERRAIN OF\r\nHONDURAS FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM\r\nWITH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING OVER HONDURAS...MAINLY WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. THE MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nOCCURRING OVER WESTERN NICARAGUA. MORE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES\r\nAPPEAR LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 15.4N  86.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.6N  86.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 16.2N  87.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N  87.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N  88.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N  89.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":36,"Date":"1998-10-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI OCT 30 1998\r\nCORRECTION TO INITIAL LONGITUDE \r\n\r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED\r\nAND IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/02.\r\nALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP-\r\nLAYER-MEAN HIGH LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND DRIFTING\r\nEASTWARD.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE NOGAPS AND GFDL\r\nFORECASTS AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE UKMET AND AVIATION MODEL AND IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER WATER TO KNOW\r\nWHETHER MITCH IS STILL OF STORM STRENGTH.  AN AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE THE WIND SPEEDS.  MEANWHILE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAVE THE WIND SPEED AT 35 KNOTS FOR 72\r\nHOURS AS THERE IS STILL AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN\r\nTHE PERSISTENT BANDING FEATURES AND THE CENTER COULD STILL DRIFT\r\nBACK OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND\r\nTHE PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY\r\nTHREAT FROM MITCH.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 15.3N  86.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.4N  87.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.8N  87.8W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N  88.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 17.3N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  90.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":37,"Date":"1998-10-30 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI OCT 30 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/03.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHE HIGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH\r\nIN THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION SHOWN BY THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND AVIATION\r\nMODELS.  THE UKMET SHOWS MORE OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION IN THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE HAS BEEN DECREASING.\r\nHOWEVER A RECENT REPORT OF 49 KNOTS FROM ROATAN REQUIRES THAT THE\r\nWIND SPEED BE INCREASED BACK UP TO 50 KNOTS.  THIS DOES NOT MEAN\r\nTHAT A STRENGTENING TREND IS OCCURRING...BUT IT MEANS THAT OUR\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES WERE TOO LOW??  AN EVEN HIGHER OBSERVATION OF\r\n70 KNOTS FROM PUERTO BARRIOS IS BELIEVED TO BE A RESULT OF A\r\nFUNNELING EFFECT FROM NEARBY MOUNTAINS.  EXCEPT FOR THIS ADJUSTMENT\r\nOF WIND SPEED...MITCH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS MOST OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND\r\nPORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY\r\nTHREAT FROM MITCH.  WESTERN NICARAGUA...IN PARTICULAR...IS CURRENTLY\r\nUNDER A CLOUD SYSTEM WITH VERY DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 15.1N  86.8W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.1N  87.6W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 15.4N  88.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 16.1N  89.4W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.1N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":38,"Date":"1998-10-31 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI OCT 30 1998\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS...MITCH\r\nCONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTENSE CONVECTION PRIMARILY NEAR THE PACIFIC\r\nBORDER AREA OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.  IN THAT AREA...CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -90C HAVE BEEN OBSERVED BY GOES SATELLITE AND\r\nIMPLY THAT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE.  WINDS REMAIN LOCALLY STRONG\r\nALONG THE HONDURAS CARIBBEAN COAST...WITH 45-50 KT NOTED EARLIER\r\nTHIS EVENING AT ROATAN.\r\n\r\nSURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER\r\nIS NOW OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS AND MOVING TOWARD ABOUT 250 DEGREES\r\nNEAR 6 KT.  WHILE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE SHOWN AN EVENTUAL BREAKDOWN\r\nIN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH FOR SOME DAYS...THE 18Z AVN NOW INDICATES\r\nTHAT CHANGE SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  IF CORRECT\r\n...AND IF MITCH SURVIVES THAT LONG...THEN MITCH COULD BE PULLED\r\nTOWARD THE NW OR NORTH.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THAT\r\nPROGRESSION AND IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST\r\nFOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...\r\nNICARAGUA...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...EL SALVADOR...AND THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD\r\nEVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOME OF THE ABOVE\r\nMENTIONED AREAS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 14.4N  87.3W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 14.5N  88.1W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 14.7N  89.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 15.4N  90.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 16.1N  91.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 18.0N  92.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":39,"Date":"1998-10-31 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT OCT 31 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nHONDURAS AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGES.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/06.  THERER ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE 500 MB HIGH IN THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO BEING REPLACE BY WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS\r\nAND MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW MOTION FOR 72\r\nHOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD TURN.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE CONVECTION IS GONE FROM OVER THE WATER NORTH OF HONDURAS\r\nAND THE WINDS SPEEDS SHOULD BE DECREASING THERE.  A HUGE AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND EXTENDS \r\nOVER EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST\r\nFOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 TO 48 HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...\r\nNICARAGUA...GUATEMALA...AND EL SALVADOR.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH IS IS NOT PART OF THE FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT THE CENTER COULD MOVE OR REFORM OVER PACIFIC WATERS...REQUIRING\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 14.2N  87.9W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 13.9N  88.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N  89.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 14.8N  90.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 15.5N  91.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 17.5N  92.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mitch","Adv":40,"Date":"1998-10-31 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT OCT 31 1998\r\n \r\n12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM WESTERN HONDURAS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF MITCH IS POSITIONED A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS\r\nTHOUGHT...SATELLITE-BASED FIXES ALSO SUPPORT THIS ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS BY NO MEANS WELL-DEFINED.  THERE HAVE NOT\r\nBEEN ANY REPORTS OF 34 KNOT WINDS FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS AND LAND\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE 10-20 KNOT WINDS.  THUS...MITCH IS BEING\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 30 KNOTS.  THE GOVERNMENTS OF MEXICO...BELIZE...\r\nGUATEMALA HAVE BEEN CONTACTED AND ARE DISCONTINUING THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNINGS FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE COASTLINES.  WE HAVE BEEN\r\nUNABLE TO CONTACT HONDURAS BUT EXPECT THEY WILL CONCUR.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE POSITION ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/06\r\nKNOTS. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO BREAKING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THE NHC TRACK \r\nCALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS..IN CLOSEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK HAS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVING OVER THE MOST MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA...WITH\r\nPEAKS OF 8000-13000 FT.  THUS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG\r\nAS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMITCH CONTINUES TO UP IN MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC HELPING \r\nFUEL SOME DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE STRONGEST\r\nCONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL SECTIONS OF\r\nNICARAGUA...SOUTHERN EL SALVADOR...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HONDURAS\r\n...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE ADJACENT EAST PACIFIC WATERS.  HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL\r\nLIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER\r\nCOULD MOVE INTO...OR REFORM OVER...PACIFIC WATERS LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 14.5N  88.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.7N  89.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 14.9N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 15.4N  91.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 16.0N  92.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N  94.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mitch","Adv":41,"Date":"1998-10-31 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n3 PM CST SAT OCT 31 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO 5TH PARAGRAPH...\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MITCH HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD AND IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HONDURAS-GUATEMALA-EL\r\nSALVADOR BORDER.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MITCH\r\nSTILL HAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH \r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nOCCURRING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  \r\n\r\nSEVERAL 15Z SHIPS OBSERVATIONS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS WERE\r\nRECEIVED LATE THIS MORNING SHOWING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\n...33 KNOTS FROM SHIP C6YE AND 54 KNOTS FROM C6HH3...WELL REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE LIKELY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAS SINCE\r\nWEAKENED.  AFTER SPEAKING WITH THE BELIZE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE\r\nTHEY INFORMED US OF THE FUNNELING EFFECT WHICH OCCURS IN THE GULF \r\nOF HONDURAS. THUS...THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A\r\nCOMBINATION OF THE CONVECTION AND THE LOCAL FUNNELING EFFECT.  \r\nA *SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT* STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADDED TO BOTH \r\nTHE PUBLIC AND FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCTS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT\r\nTO MARINE AND COASTAL INTERESTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO COVERS THE\r\nPACIFIC COASTAL AREAS AS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND WE\r\nHAVE RECEIVED SOME SHIP REPORTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS...MAINLY OFFSHORE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10 KNOTS. BOTH THE AVIATION AND NAVY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO BREAKING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE OWING TO THE\r\nINITIAL WESTWARD MOTION.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER 8000-\r\n10000 FT PEAKS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA. THUS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT\r\nSURVIVE AS LONG AS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...AND THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER COULD MOVE\r\nINTO...OR REFORM OVER...PACIFIC WATERS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nMITCH CONTINUES TO PULL IN MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC HELPING\r\nFUEL SOME DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE STRONGEST\r\nCONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL SECTIONS OF\r\nNICARAGUA...SOUTHERN EL SALVADOR...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HONDURAS\r\n...WESTERN NICARAGUA...AND THE ADJACENT EAST PACIFIC WATERS.  HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL\r\nLIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 14.5N  89.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.7N  91.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 15.4N  92.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 16.4N  93.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 17.5N  94.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mitch","Adv":42,"Date":"1998-11-01 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT OCT 31 1998\r\n \r\nIR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVING WESTWARD\r\nAT ABOUT 8 KT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...AND\r\nIMPLY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS PROBABLY BASED AROUND 6000 FT.\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT GIVEN\r\nTHAT MITCH HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER LAND FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS...IT\r\nRETAINS A RATHER WELL ORGANIZED CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MITCH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH\r\nALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A TRACK THAT BENDS TO THE WNW AND\r\nTHEN NW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN AND WOULD KEEP MITCH\r\nOVER LAND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  WITH NO NEW MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE\r\n12Z...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT THINKING AND BE SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 14.6N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 15.1N  91.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 15.8N  92.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.1N  93.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N  94.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N  93.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mitch","Adv":43,"Date":"1998-11-01 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 01 1998\r\n \r\nIR SATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nMOVING 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN\r\nGUATEMALA.  THIS SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST MAY BE THE\r\nBEGINNING OF THE SYSTEM RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nOVER SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO\r\nDECREASE AND WHAT IS LEFT IS LOCATED ON PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE.\r\n  \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MITCH PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH\r\nALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A TRACK THAT BENDS TO THE WNW AND\r\nTHEN NW WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN AND WOULD KEEP MITCH\r\nOVER LAND FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS\r\nTHIS REASONING AND MOVES SYSTEM INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE IN TWO DAYS. \r\nFROM 48 TO 72 HOURS MODELS DIFFER IN DIRECTION AND SPEEDS.  TWO\r\nNOTABLE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES SYSTEM IN\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 18 HOURS...AND NOGAPS WHICH MOVES SYSTEM TO\r\nNORTHERN GUATEMALA IN 36 HOURS AND BACK INTO CARIBBEAN.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 15.0N  91.4W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 15.6N  92.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 16.4N  93.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 17.4N  93.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.3N  93.8W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N  93.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mitch","Adv":44,"Date":"1998-11-01 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 01 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED BUT IT APPEARS THAT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nHAS CONTINUED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A DAY OR TWO.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW WITHIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES WEST OF MITCH...ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TEXAS.  THE AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS\r\nSHORTWAVE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO BREAKING DOWN WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS MITCH MOVING INTO\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD...IF IT SURVIVES.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE MITCH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC...ALTHOUGH THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...IT WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS AN ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME POORLY-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE...AS IT\r\nCONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASS OF GUATEMALA\r\nAND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  MOREOVER...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BE INHIBITED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES.   \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 14.9N  91.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 15.3N  92.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 16.2N  93.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N  94.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N  94.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  93.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mitch","Adv":45,"Date":"1998-11-01 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 01 1998\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR ABOUT THREE DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS STILL A GENERAL TURNING OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AROUND AN APPARENT\r\nCENTER NEAR THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...SURFACE DATA SHOW\r\nLITTLE EVIDENCE OF A CIRCULATION.  THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER\r\nAGENCY WAS UNABLE TO DEFINE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 85 GHZ SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  MITCH IS DISSIPATING AND THE REMNANT LOW AND AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...IN\r\nEITHER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR THE EASTERN PACIFIC.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 15.0N  92.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.7N  93.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 16.5N  94.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 17.5N  95.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":46,"Date":"1998-11-03 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 03 1998\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nUNIMPRESSIVE...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A 997 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nAND 1500-FOOT WINDS NEAR 50 KNOTS.  HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL\r\nVORTEX THAT MAY BE REVOLVING AROUND A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE.  \r\nMITCH IS NOW BEING RE-UPGRADED TO A 40-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NO LONGER THE INTENSE\r\nHURRICANE THAT IT ONCE WAS...AND SHOULD WEAKEN WHEN IT MOVES OVER\r\nYUCATAN.  LATER ON...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nSHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 5 KNOTS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ACCELERATION...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS\r\nMUCH AS INDICATED BY THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nASSUMING THAT THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY...THE\r\nMAIN IMPACT OF MITCH SHOULD BE RAINFALL.  \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 19.4N  91.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.2N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.7N  87.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N  84.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N  80.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.0N  72.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":47,"Date":"1998-11-04 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE NOV 03 1998\r\n \r\nIN FLYING THROUGH MITCH EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nPROVIDED CENTER FIXES BUT HAD TO SEARCH AROUND A BIT TO DO SO AS THE\r\nINNER CIRCULATION WAS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL FORMED.  GIVEN THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NOW CENTERED OVER LAND...THE WINDS HAVE LIKELY DECREASED\r\nTO NEAR 35 KT...DESPITE THE BAND OF INTENSE CONVECTION NOTED OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  MITCH COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nMITCH COULD AGAIN RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE ONCE ITS CENTER LEAVES THE\r\nYUCATAN AND MOVES OVER THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE SE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  OUTPUT FROM THE 18Z AVN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT MITCH\r\nCOULD UNDERGO A MODEST RESTRENGTHENING DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE/S INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING\r\nFRONT.  EITHER WAY...MITCH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER\r\nWITH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO PRECEDE THE CENTER AND...GIVEN THE\r\nFORECAST MOTION...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY TO BE TO THE SE OF\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE TAKES MITCH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nEITHER ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA OR THE FL STRAITS...EXCEPT THE GFDL\r\nWHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM.  THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF SPEEDS\r\nFORECAST...HOWEVER...WITH 72 HOUR POINTS STRETCHING FROM THE NW\r\nBAHAMAS TO THE AZORES.  THE NHC TRACK REPRESENTS AN INTERMEDIATE\r\nSOLUTION AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nMITCH IS EXPECTED TO EFFECTIVELY MERGE WITH THE FRONT AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL NOT LONG AFTER PASSING THE FL AREA.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 20.2N  90.2W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.3N  88.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  85.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 25.1N  82.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 27.2N  78.3W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N  69.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mitch","Adv":48,"Date":"1998-11-04 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED NOV 04 1998\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MITCH IS WELL-REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CENTER...WITH ONE AREA OVER THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN\r\nEXTENDING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AND ANOTHER LARGER\r\nAREA LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 30 KT...BRINGING MITCH TO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nWHICH HAS MITCH RE-STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36 HOURS\r\nAS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO FAVORABLE SST/S\r\nAND INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT. MITCH IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER \r\nAS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE.\r\nREGARDLESS...THE MAIN THREAT POSED BY MITCH IS LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL MAINLY IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.  THE LEADING EDGE OF \r\nTHE RAIN SHIELD IS JUST WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nINFRARED-BASED SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB PLACE THE POORLY-\r\nDEFINED CENTER OF MITCH OVER THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA ABOUT\r\nMIDWAY BETWEEN MERIDA AND CARMEN MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE LATEST\r\nOBSERVATION FROM MERIDA SHOWS A SSW WIND SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER\r\nMAY BE REFORMING TO THE NORTH JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA. THE 06Z TRACK PREDICTION MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THEIR 00Z COUNTERPARTS WITH A CLUSTERING ON A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...AT VARYING SPEEDS. BAMD AND LBAR ARE THE\r\nNORTHERNMOST OF THE TRACKS WHILE THE GFLD AND NOGAP SOLUTIONS ARE\r\nTHE FURTHEST SOUTH BRINGING MITCH THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND\r\nREPRESENTS A CONSENSUS TRACK. AS STATED EARLIER MITCH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMERGE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NOT LONG AFTER\r\nPASSING THE FLORIDA AREA.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED TROPICAL STORM  WARNINGS\r\nFOR THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PROGRESO TO CARMEN. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CENTER OF MITCH IS FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS\r\nBY 36 HOURS NO WATCHES WILL BE POSTED AT THIS. RATHER...WITH THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY OF THE CENTER LOCATION MENTIONED ABOVE WE WILL WAIT\r\nUNTIL LATER THIS MORNING WHEN THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES\r\n...ALONG WITH AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE...WILL BE AVAILABLE TO BETTER\r\nPINPOINT THE CENTER LOCATION. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 20.8N  89.4W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 21.8N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 23.6N  84.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 25.6N  81.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  77.3W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 33.5N  67.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":49,"Date":"1998-11-04 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED NOV 04 1998\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM SHIPS AND SURFACE SITES INDICATE THAT MITCH IS NOT\r\nCOMPLETELY TROPICAL ANYMORE.  WHILE CONVECTION IS MINIMAL NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM OF THE CENTER SEEM TO BE\r\nRELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS\r\nARE OCCURRING IN A CONVECTIVE BAND BETWEEN 200 AND 300 NM SOUTHEAST\r\nTO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.   TO ACCOMMODATE THIS AND SIMPLIFY THE\r\nWARNING PROCESS REQUIRES UPGRADING MITCH BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...\r\nWITH 40 KT WINDS.  SOME FILLING IN OF THE WIND FIELD IS LIKELY\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY.  THE STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLICATED\r\nFURTHER BY THE INCREASING INTERACTION BETWEEN MITCH AND THE\r\nAPPROACHING FRONT.\r\n  \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE FL\r\nPENINSULA AND FL KEYS.  NORTHWARD FROM THERE...WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY\r\nTO INCREASE AND COULD REACH GALE STRENGTH ALONG THE COAST AS MITCH\r\nTRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UPON LEAVING FLORIDA.  THIS\r\nIS PREDICATED ON A NORTHEASTWARD FORECAST TRACK WITH INCREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AS IMPLIED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY IMPACT OF MITCH STILL APPEARS TO BE AREAS OF HEAVY\r\nRAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER...AND LOCALLY GUSTY\r\nWINDS.\r\n  \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 21.8N  88.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 23.2N  86.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 25.2N  83.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 27.9N  78.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.9N  73.4W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":50,"Date":"1998-11-04 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED NOV 04 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED AND IS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST AXIS.  THE 18Z INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE BEEN PUSHED AHEAD A LITTLE TOO FAST ALONG THE TRACK...\r\nHOWEVER...AND THE CURRENT POSITION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nSHIP OBSERVATIONS.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY HAVE\r\nLOST SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND\r\nHEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...MAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES...COULD OCCUR\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  MITCH IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBY 48 HOURS OR SOONER.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND\r\nISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE\r\nSPREADING OVER THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.  TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONLY IN A FEW OF THE RAINBANDS WELL\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nCURRENT MOVEMENT IS NORTHEAST NEAR 20 KNOTS.  MOST NUMERICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW FURTHER ACCELERATION AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH\r\nIS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS A BLEND OF ALL\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE.   THIS IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND AVN\r\nMODEL OUTPUT AT 48-72 HOURS.\r\n   \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 23.5N  85.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 25.5N  82.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  78.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  73.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 34.0N  67.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 39.0N  54.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":51,"Date":"1998-11-05 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED NOV 04 1998\r\n \r\nMITCH DOES NOT LOOK VERY TROPICAL...AND IN FACT IF THIS WERE NOT THE\r\nREMNANTS OF MITCH WE WOULD PROBABLY NOT BE CALLING THIS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  HOWEVER...TO BEST SERVE THE WARNING PROCESS AND HIGHLIGHT\r\nTHE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFER TO THIS SYSTEM\r\nAS A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON SHIP REPORTS AND\r\nRECON DATA.  THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN A FEW OF THE\r\nRAINBANDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER.  SOME STRENGTHENING...DUE TO\r\nBAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MITCH\r\nWILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED FROM SATELLITE OR RECONNAISSANCE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND IS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS.\r\nSOME RELOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THE NIGHT.  THE CENTER IS\r\nNOT THE MOST IMPORTANT FEATURE...BUT RATHER THE SEVERE WEATHER\r\nTHREAT.  DURING THE EVENING...A TORNADO-PRODUCING MESOCYCLONE WAS\r\nTRACKED WITH THE KEY WEST WSR-88D RADAR OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER\r\nFLORIDA KEYS.  WITH THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS\r\nAND ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE KEYS\r\nAND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE NIGHT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHEAST NEAR 23 KNOTS.  MOST NUMERICAL\r\nMODELS SHOW FURTHER ACCELERATION AS MITCH TAKES ON FRONTAL CYCLONE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE...AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND AVN\r\nMODEL OUTPUT AT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 25.3N  84.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 27.5N  80.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.5N  75.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 38.0N  62.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":52,"Date":"1998-11-05 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU NOV 05 1998\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN EARLIER ADVISORIES MITCH IS NOT VERY TROPICAL IN\r\nAPPEARANCE AND ITS TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...-80 DEG C...MOVING\r\nONSHORE BETWEEN TAMPA AND NAPLES.   \r\n\r\nTHE LAST NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PASS THROUGH MITCH REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 993 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...1500 FT...OF\r\n59 KNOTS.  THE KEY WEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR VAD\r\nWIND PROFILE INDICATED 60 KNOTS AT 2000 FT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH \r\nTHE RECON DATA. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WHOLLY TROPICAL THE USUAL\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DOES NOT APPLY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...DUE TO BAROCLINIC\r\nPROCESSES...IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  MITCH WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST\r\nTHAT MITCH IS MOVING SLIGHTLY MORE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/20 KNOTS.  THE CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED\r\nNE-SW AND IS TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...AS EVIDENCED IN THE \r\nDIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES...CONFIRMING\r\nTHE ONGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.  ALL THE DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nPREDICTION MODELS SHOW A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION \r\nWITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS...AND REPRESENTS A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE CENTER FEATURE IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT\r\nFEATURE RATHER ONE SHOULD FOCUS ON THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE...NAMELY\r\nTHE CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.\r\n\r\nTHE WARNING FOR CUBA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.\r\nTHE LOWERING OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA WILL BE ADDRESS\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 25.7N  82.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 27.0N  78.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 29.6N  73.7W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 32.6N  67.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 36.0N  60.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":53,"Date":"1998-11-05 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU NOV 05 1998\r\n \r\nWITH MITCH MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SW FL COAST NEAR DAYBREAK...THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING SHORE PATROL AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPART OF THE PENINSULA.  AT 1118Z THEY REPORTED AN EXTRAPOLATED\r\nPRESSURE OF 988 MB AT THEIR LOCATION JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  THEY\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY FOUND 73 KT AT THEIR 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL JUST EAST OF\r\nBISCAYNE BAY.  STRONG CONVECTION IN THE AREA IS LIKELY TRANSPORTING\r\nSOME OF THAT MOMENTUM TOWARD THE SURFACE.  FOWEY ROCKS REPORTED A\r\n10-MIN WIND OF 51 KT.  THEY ALSO HAD A TWO MINUTE WIND OF 52 KT WITH\r\nA GUST TO 63 KT AT THE TOP OF THE 13Z HOUR...WHERE THE AIRCRAFT HAD\r\nABOUT 65 KT.  HENCE...MITCH RETAINS SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nAND BASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO\r\n55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOW EXITING THE FL EAST COAST NEAR JUPITER AND IS\r\nMOVING AT ABOUT 060/23 KT.  A CONTINUED ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NE\r\nIS FORECAST...AS INDICATED BY MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE MODEL TRACKS AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST PASS NORTH OF BERMUDA IN 24-36 HOURS...BUT ARE\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO THE ISLAND THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE/GALE WINDS\r\nCOULD BE EXPERIENCED THERE.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND THE FL\r\nKEYS WEST OF CRAIG KEY HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 27.1N  80.2W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 29.8N  75.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 33.4N  69.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 37.0N  61.1W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 39.6N  51.6W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mitch","Adv":54,"Date":"1998-11-05 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MITCH DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU NOV 05 1998\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS COULD NOT IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IN MITCH WHEN THE STORM LEFT THE FL EAST COAST.  SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES SEEM TO CONFIRM THEIR OBSERVATIONS OF AN ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nAREA WITH THE LOWEST SURFACE PRESSURE.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBE DECLARED AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN THIS ADVISORY.  ALL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD ABOUT 070 DEGREES AT 28 KT.  ITS COURSE\r\nIS LIKELY TO BE A CONTINUATION OF THIS HEADING WITH ADDITIONAL\r\nACCELERATION...AS IMPLIED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CONTAINED IN NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS...UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDHSFAT1\r\nAND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 28.2N  76.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 30.4N  72.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 33.7N  64.8W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 37.3N  56.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-11-24 12:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM EST TUE NOV 24 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LOW IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nHAS ACQUIRED A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND ITS CENTER. \r\nBASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THERE COULD VERY WELL BE WINDS\r\nOF 35 KNOTS OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  THIS IS THE BASIS\r\nFOR IDENTIFYING THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/10.  WITH A SMALL HIGH TO ITS\r\nNORTH AND A TROUGH TO ITS WEST...THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nSHALLOW AND DEEP BAM ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT SUGGESTING THAT STRONG\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN\r\nBY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1200Z 27.7N  30.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 27.4N  31.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 27.0N  33.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 26.2N  35.6W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N  37.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.0N  39.0W    20 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-11-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE NOV 24 1998\r\n\r\nA SHIP...WITH CALL SIGN PFSJ...REPORTED 36 KNOTS JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THIS PRETTY MUCH CONFIRMS THE EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATE. \r\nTHE STORM IS LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK.  THIS IS\r\nTYPICAL FOR THESE LATE-SEASON DEVELOPMENTS IN THE SUBTROPICS.  NOT\r\nMUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED AND NICOLE IS LIKELY TO\r\nENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND\r\nWEAKEN.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF WEST AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.  THE MOST REASONABLE STEERING SCENARIO FOR\r\nNICOLE IS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nPERIOD...AS IT ROUNDS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE.  A BROAD\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE SYSTEM\r\nNORTHWARD...IF IT SURVIVES.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 27.6N  31.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 27.1N  32.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 26.7N  35.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N  36.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N  37.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N  39.5W    20 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-11-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 24 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE SMALL AND CLOUD\r\nTOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.  HOWEVER...AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN\r\nNOTED INTERMITTENTLY IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.  MORE IMPORTANTLY THE\r\nSAME SHIP...CALL SIGN PFSJ...WHICH EARLIER REPORTED 36 KNOT WINDS\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...HAS REPORTED 58 KNOTS NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER AT 18Z.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 60\r\nKNOTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST...SINCE STRONGER\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEARBY AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE\r\nMARGINAL...AROUND 25 DEG CELSIUS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS 245/10.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST OR REASONING.  HOWEVER SOME OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AND THE DEEP-LAYER BAM EVEN TURNS\r\nNICOLE EASTWARD TO AFRICA LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE MORE SOUTHWARD\r\nAND EASTWARD TRACKS MAY BE THE RESULT OF STEERING AROUND THE LARGER\r\nSCALE CYCLONIC GYRE WITHIN WHICH THE STORM IS EMBEDDED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND MEDIUM/SHALLOW\r\nLAYER BAM GUIDANCE...CONSISTENT WITH A MOVEMENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 27.1N  31.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 26.5N  33.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  35.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N  36.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 26.5N  38.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 28.0N  40.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-11-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE NOV 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SMALL AND\r\nCLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.  HOWEVER...THE INTERMITTENT EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE NOTED EARLIER IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES APPEARS TO BE SHOWING UP\r\nAS AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED IMAGES.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS.  AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOT FORECAST...SINCE\r\nSTRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NEARBY AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPS ARE\r\nMARGINAL...AROUND 25 DEG CELSIUS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.\r\n \r\nMOTION IS 250/09.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE GUIDANCE GIVEN\r\nBY THE GFDL...BAMS...AND THE AVN...WHICH IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE HAD\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH.  THEREFORE...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS PICKED UP\r\nBY THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  SEVERAL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT AND THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER BAM TURNS NICOLE EASTWARD TO AFRICA LATE IN THE PERIOD. \r\nTHE MORE SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD TRACKS MAY BE THE RESULT OF STEERING\r\nOF THE LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE WITHIN WHICH THE STORM IS\r\nEMBEDDED.\r\n   \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 26.8N  32.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 26.3N  33.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  35.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 26.2N  37.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.9N  38.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 32.0N  40.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-11-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED NOV 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/09...SAME AS LAST ADVISORY.  THE\r\nSTORM APPEARS TO BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW AND\r\nA RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHORT\r\nWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL NOT PICK UP THE STORM AND THAT\r\nIT WILL CONTINUE A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS REASONING AND IS ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL SHOWS AN INCREASING\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nSECOND SHORT WAVE.  IT IS NOTED THAT MPC GUIDANCE SHOWS THE\r\nALTERNATE SOLUTION OF THE STORM BEING PICKED UP BY THE FIRST SHORT\r\nWAVE AND THIS WOULD PUT THE 72 HOUR POSITION SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nUPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FIRST SHORT WAVE ARE\r\nWITHIN ABOUT 500 N MI AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STORM IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSHIP REPORTS AT 06Z SHOW THAT THE 24-KNOT WIND SPEED RADII HAVE\r\nINCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE.  THIS IS..TO\r\nSOME EXTENT...REFLECTED IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 26.4N  33.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  34.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.7N  37.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.8N  38.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 26.5N  40.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 28.5N  41.5W    25 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-11-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED NOV 25 1998\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH\r\nLIFTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS ANOTHER DIGS NEAR THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE RESULT OF THIS IS A DISCONTINUOUS\r\nRETROGRESSION WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nBASED ON THE ABOVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...\r\nABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM-LAYER BAM TRACKS.\r\n\r\nHIGH-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE INCREASING\r\nAND NICOLE HAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. \r\nANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS HOMEPAGE SHOW\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 26.2N  34.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.7N  35.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  37.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.3N  38.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  40.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N  42.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-11-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED NOV 25 1998\r\n\r\nSHEARING CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE STORM AND CENTER IS BECOMING\r\nEXPOSED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 45 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY...SINCE STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES\r\nSHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. \r\nNICOLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MOSTLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF AN\r\nAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM\r\nNEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE INCREASED A LITTLE MORE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 18Z OBSERVATION OF 36 KNOTS FROM\r\nA SHIP...CALL SIGN PJRO...AND SSM/I DATA.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 26.0N  35.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.5N  36.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 25.5N  38.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  39.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  41.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N  43.0W    20 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-11-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED NOV 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF NICOLE REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS RESULTED IN WEAKENING...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  STRONG WESTERLIES AT\r\nHIGH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nWHICH WILL ALLOW THE WEAKENING TREND TO CONTINUE.  NICOLE WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND THERE IS A\r\nSTRONG POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL NOT SURVIVE AS AN IDENTIFIABLE\r\nSYSTEM THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/08.  NICOLE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM.  CURRENT TRACK IS ALONG THE LINES OF\r\nTHE GFDL AND NOGAPS...AND AT A SPEED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE\r\nSHALLOW AND MID LAYER BAMS.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 25.6N  35.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  37.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.3N  39.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 25.7N  41.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 26.5N  43.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  45.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nicole","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-11-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU NOV 26 1998\r\n\r\nLITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH NICOLE AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  STRONG UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES SHOULD PERSIST OVER NICOLE...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPRECLUDE ANY REGENERATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nPROBABLY SOON BE DECLARED DISSIPATED...AND ITS REMNANTS COULD BE\r\nCARRIED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n\r\nA MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW LAYER TRACK PREDICTION\r\nMODEL...BAMS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 25.4N  37.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N  38.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.4N  40.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  42.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nicole","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-11-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU NOV 26 1998\r\n \r\nALL THAT REMAINS OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN NICOLE IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LLCC.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nAT 00 UTC GAVE 25 KNOTS...CONTINUING THE WEAKENING TREND.  THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON CIMISS CALCULATED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHEREFORE...NICOLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A LOW.  THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY MERGE WITH THE TROUGH TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW WILL BE CARRIED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC AND AFOS HEADER\r\nFFDHSFAT1.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 25.1N  37.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.0N  39.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nicole","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-11-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI NOV 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LOW THAT WAS NICOLE HAS SURVIVED THE EXTREME VERTICAL SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT IT HAS BEEN IN FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS MADE A\r\nCOMEBACK.  ALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE...INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF A SHEARING\r\nENVIRONMENT... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW AT 30 KNOTS. \r\nTHUS...THE LOW IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NICOLE AT 15Z.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNCLEAR...SHIPS WEAKENS THE SYSTEM WITH\r\nTIME BUT THE GFDL INTENSIFIES NICOLE BACK TO A 60 KNOT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN 72 HOURS.  SINCE NICOLE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MAXIMUM\r\nLATITUDE OF RECURVATURE AT 48 HOURS IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD MAKE\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS.  THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TO BEGIN A\r\nGRADUAL RECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM\r\nIS PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING WESTERLY TROUGH.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 25.4N  42.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 25.7N  43.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 26.6N  45.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 28.0N  47.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 30.0N  47.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 34.0N  45.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-11-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI NOV 27 1998\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NICOLES CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING THIS AFTERNOON...THE\r\nCENTER HAS MOVED UNDER THE CONVECTION AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nIS FORMING AN ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS EXCEPT THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUAD.  SOME BANDING FEATURES ARE PRESENT.  THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS ARE REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WHICH INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY\r\nAND IS NOW AT 40 KNOTS. THUS...NICOLE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT 21Z.\r\n \r\nINTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTHENING AT LEAST\r\nOUT TO 36 HOURS.  SINCE NICOLE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE MAXIMUM\r\nLATITUDE OF RECURVATURE NEAR 36 HOURS IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD MAKE\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS.  THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN TO BEGIN A\r\nGRADUAL RECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM\r\nIS PICKED UP BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THESE TRACKS AND TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 25.7N  43.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 26.2N  44.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  45.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 29.0N  46.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 30.7N  45.6W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 33.0N  43.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-11-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI NOV 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11.\r\n \r\nTHE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE STORM ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB COLL\r\nREGION THAT ENCOUNTERS WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS.  ONLY THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM AND CLIPER MODELS SHOW MUCH MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.\r\nTHE OTHERS SLOWLY RECURVE THE STORM EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH SHOWS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION TO MORE THAN 48 KNOTS FORWARD SPEED AFTER\r\n48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND OTHER MODELS\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP A LITTLE AND THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING\r\nARE QUESTIONABLE AS A COLD FRONT AND WESTERLIES APPROACH THE STORM.\r\nTHE GFDL DOES FORECAST 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS BUT ITS SKILL IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE FOR A WHILE LONGER.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 25.7N  44.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N  46.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 28.0N  48.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  47.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  47.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  43.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-11-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT NOV 28 1998\r\n\r\nTENACIOUS NICOLE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL DEFINED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN WITH BANDING FEATURES AND THE CENTER LOCATED UNDER THE\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0\r\nAND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED\r\nTO ABOUT 50 KNOTS.  THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF NICOLE IS VERY\r\nUNCERTAIN.  HIGH RESOLUTION HIGH LEVEL CLOUD WIND VECTORS DEPICT A\r\nRIDGE OVER NICOLE WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND 200 MB FORECAST\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD\r\nREACH THE AREA OF THE STORM SOON.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST RAPID\r\nWEAKENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...BOTH SHIFOR AND THE GFDL BRING NICOLE\r\nTO HURRICANE STATUS.  AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO\r\nMUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINITIALLY INDICATED... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nNICOLE IS NOW MOVING 290/10.  THERE IS A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT\r\nRAPIDLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE BEST ESTIMATE GIVEN\r\nSUCH PATTERN WOULD BE TO FORECAST RECURVATURE.  LATEST GFDL...AVN\r\nAND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL BYPASS NICOLE AND THAT\r\nTHERE WILL BE LITTLE MOTION. THE RECURVATURE OPTION IS PREFERRED...\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE\r\nFRONT...AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.     \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 26.5N  46.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 27.2N  47.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  47.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 29.0N  47.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 30.5N  47.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 33.5N  43.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-11-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT NOV 28 1998\r\n\r\nNICOLE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\n...SUGGESTING THE INFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST.\r\nIT IS NOW MOVING 330/14.  LATEST GFDL...AVN AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL BYPASS NICOLE AND THAT THERE WILL BE\r\nLITTLE MOTION.  THE BAMD AND UKMET SHOW RECURVATURE.  IN LIGHT OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...WHICH MANY OF THE MODELS IGNORED...THE\r\nRECURVATURE OPTION IS PREFERRED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK 72 HOUR\r\nFORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE BAMD 72 HOUR POSITION.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AGAIN 3.0\r\nAND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THUS THE WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS. \r\nTHE RECURVATURE TRACK FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 28.0N  46.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  47.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 32.5N  45.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 34.5N  42.3W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 36.5N  39.8W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 41.0N  33.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-11-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT NOV 28 1998\r\n \r\nNICOLE HAS NOW DECREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION IN THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nTO ABOUT 9 KNOTS...ANOTHER SIGN THAT IT IS ABOUT TO RECURVE. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 345/09.  LATEST AVN AND BAMS MODELS MOVE SYSTEM\r\nEITHER SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.  GFDL MODEL RECURVES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE EAST.  UKMET...BAMD AND NHC98 RECURVE SYSTEM TOWARD\r\nNORTHEAST BUT AT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER.\r\n\r\nTHE WESTERLY AND SOUTH-WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH TO THE WEST IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR NICOLES UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THUS THE WINDS REMAIN AT\r\n50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEARING...ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AND IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 28.4N  46.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 29.8N  46.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 31.7N  44.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 33.3N  42.6W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 35.0N  40.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 38.0N  33.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-11-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT NOV 28 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nNEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION IS IN A LIMITED AREA BUT HAS BEEN VERY PERSISTENT. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST\r\nESTIMATES FROM THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY....SAB...AND TAFB.  THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/09.  CONSIDERABLE SCATTER EXISTS IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE FUTURE TRACK WILL LIKELY DEPEND UPON\r\nTHE STRENGTH OF NICOLE.  IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WERE TO BECOME\r\nSTRONGER AGAIN...IT WOULD LIKELY BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST AND RECURVE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY THE DEEP\r\nLAYER BAM....NHC98...AND THE UKMET MODELS.  HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM\r\nWEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...THE TROUGH MAY PASS IT BY AND LITTLE OVERALL\r\nMOTION COULD RESULT AS INDICATED BY THE NAVY NOGAPS...THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL...THE MID AND SHALLOW BAM.  OUR OFFICIAL TRACK WILL TAKE THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE ROAD AND INDICATE ONLY A SLOW RECURVATURE...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 29.2N  46.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  46.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  44.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 32.3N  43.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 32.8N  41.6W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 33.5N  39.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-11-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 29 1998\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS NOT\r\nEXPOSED...AND IS LOCATED UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A PERSISTENT MASS\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE AREA APPEARS TO\r\nBE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR MAINTAINING NICOLE/S INTENSITY AT THIS\r\nTIME.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD SOON TAKE PLACE SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND THE STORM IS MOVING OVER SLOWLY\r\nCOOLING SST/S.  NICOLE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS GRADUALLY BENDING TO THE RIGHT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSTEERING AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AND A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE RIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL AND DEEP-LAYER\r\nSTEERING SHOW CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER\r\nTHE BAROTROPIC MODEL...THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND MEDIUM-DEPTH STEERING\r\nARE MUCH SLOWER AND WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE ABOVE TRACKS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS A COMPROMISE AND\r\nROUGHLY THE AVERAGE OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED OBJECTIVE TRACK\r\nPREDICTIONS. \r\n\r\nA SHIP...CALL SIGN PDFB...REPORTED ONLY 17 KNOT WINDS ABOUT 75 N MI\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER AT 06Z.  BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION...THE RADII OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE DECREASED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 30.4N  45.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 31.3N  44.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 32.3N  43.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 33.0N  42.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 33.5N  40.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 34.5N  37.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-11-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE STORM REMAINS LOCATED UNDER THE SOUTH-WESTERN EDGE\r\nOF A PERSISTENT MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE\r\nOVER THE AREA APPEARS TO BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR MAINTAINING\r\nNICOLES INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nSOON TAKE PLACE SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND THE STORM\r\nIS MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  NICOLE IS LIKELY TO\r\nLOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nNICOLE SEEMS TO BE TRACKING ALONG PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER...050/11 KTS.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.  THE\r\nUKMET AND NHC98 SHOW CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nTHE LBAR...GFDL AND BAMD ARE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTWO.  FINALLY...THE BAMS...AVN AND NOGAPS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT\r\nAND SLOWLY CURVE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY PARALLELS THE GFDL\r\nTRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK BUT SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 31.1N  44.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 32.2N  43.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  41.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  39.2W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 34.0N  37.2W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 35.0N  33.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-11-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 29 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE LIKE FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nPICTURES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...AT THE SAME TIME THE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AROUND THIS EYE LIKE FEATURE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT 3.0 OR 45 KNOTS.  BUT AN EYE\r\nFEATURE SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTENING AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n50 KNOTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST.  SINCE THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS GAINED FORWARD SPEED IT SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES IN ABOUT A DAY AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nNICOLE IS NOW ACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 18\r\nKTS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS TWO\r\nPACKAGES AND CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPREAD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK AND MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM MUCH FASTER.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 32.8N  42.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 34.5N  40.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 36.6N  36.4W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 38.6N  32.1W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 40.4N  27.4W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 44.0N  17.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-11-30 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN NOV 29 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES OVER ABOUT THE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE SHOWN A RAGGED\r\nEYE...SUGGESTING THAT NICOLE HAS PROBABLY BEEN AT THE THRESHOLD OF\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH FOR PART OF THAT PERIOD.  WITH THAT IN MIND...AND\r\nWITH TAFB DVORAK ANALYSES GIVING NUMBERS OF 3.5 TO 4.0 AT 00Z...\r\nNICOLE WILL BE UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY. \r\nCURRENTLY...THE CENTRAL PART OF NICOLE CONSISTS OF A WARM SPOT\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A BROKEN RING OF EYEWALL CONVECTION WITH FAIRLY WARM\r\nTOPS.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS DIFFLUENT TO THE EAST WITH MOST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION USING THE WARM SPOT AS THE CENTER IS 050/13 KT...\r\nSOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nNICOLE CROSSING A NARROW E-W RIDGE AND BEGINNING TO BECOME ENTRAINED\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  FLOW AROUND A STRONG TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CARRY NICOLE TOWARD THE NE...AS\r\nINDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  BY 36 TO 48 HOURS\r\n...NICOLE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL WHILE PASSING NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nAZORES.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKER BY THEN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 32.9N  42.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 33.8N  40.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 35.4N  37.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 37.4N  34.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 39.5N  31.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 45.5N  27.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-11-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON NOV 30 1998\r\n\r\nAN EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT DVORAK\r\nANALYSES USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nIS STILL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nBECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS SHOWN\r\nBY THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH INITIAL MOTION...050/12...IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN\r\nBEFORE...MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nACCELERATION WITH STEERING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH AND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE\r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL TRACK...THOUGH NOT AS\r\nFAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS NICOLE PASSING A LITTLE FARTHER WEST\r\nOF THE AZORES...BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY HAVE EFFECTS ON\r\nTHOSE ISLANDS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nIT IS OF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT...WITH NICOLE HAVING REACHED\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...THE TOTAL OF 33 HURRICANES DURING THE FOUR-\r\nYEAR PERIOD FROM 1995-1998 IS THE HIGHEST ON RECORD.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 33.5N  41.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 34.5N  39.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 36.5N  36.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 39.0N  33.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 43.0N  32.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 51.0N  34.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-11-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON NOV 30 1998\r\n \r\nNICOLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN EMBEDDED\r\nCENTER PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT\r\nVISIBLE PICTURES HINT AT A POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE RE-EMERGING WITH\r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KNOTS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING FORECAST  \r\nPER THE LAST PACKAGE.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/12 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS THE TRACK PREDICTION\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AS IT\r\nROUNDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH BAMD.\r\n\r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS NICOLE SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE AZORES\r\nBETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND THUS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS.  THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE 34-KNOT WIND RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nOUTWARD BASED ON A 0900 UTC SHIP REPORT. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 34.1N  39.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 35.4N  37.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 37.2N  34.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 40.6N  31.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 45.0N  31.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 53.5N  37.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-06-19 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR                                              \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  1                     \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                   \r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 1998                                            \r\n                      \r\n...CORRECTED AFOS BIN NUMBER FROM 1 TO 2\r\n      \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF THE          \r\nCENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICAN COASTS DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS     \r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE   \r\nPICTURES SHOW A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES.       \r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED AND STILL IS IN FORMATIVE STAGE  \r\nSO ADJUSTMENTS IN THE INITIAL POSITION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER.       \r\n                                                                    \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH TAFB DVORAK      \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED SINCE THE SYSTEM IS     \r\nUNDER EASTERLY SHEAR BUT LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW A GRADUAL            \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 18 HOURS AND SHIPS\r\nBEGINS TO WEAKEN IT BY 48 HOURS BASICALLY DUE TO COOL SST.          \r\nHOWEVER..SHIPS IS BASED ON LBAR TRACK FORECAST WHICH HAS A NORTHWARD\r\nBIAS.                                                               \r\n                                                                    \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15. GLOBAL MODELS        \r\nMAINTAIN A 500 MB RIDGE FROM MEXICO WESTWARD ANN THIS PATTERN WILL  \r\nKEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE SAME GENERAL WET NORTHWEST TRACK   \r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n                                                                    \r\nGUINEY/AVILA                                                        \r\n                                                                    \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS                                    \r\n                                                                    \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 15.3N 105.7W    30 KTS                         \r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.1N 107.8W    35 KTS                         \r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 110.7W    45 KTS                         \r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.6N 113.5W    45 KTS                         \r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    40 KTS                         \r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W    30 KTS                         \r\n                                                                    \r\nNNNN                                                                \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-06-20 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 1998\r\n \r\nANIMATION OF SATELLITE PICTURES AGAIN SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED NEAR A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF\r\nTHE ELONGATION BASED ON TAFB AND SAB ANALYSES.  INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 290/15 KT.  CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AT THE MOMENT WHILE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nDEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE AVN MODEL MAINTAINS A STRONG AND LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE\r\n72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ALSO SHOW THAT OUTCOME.   THE GFDL SHOWS DISSIPATION WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING SOMETHING ELSE THAT\r\nIT HAS MODELED ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH. \r\n \r\nSOME EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT WITH AN OTHERWISE\r\nPROMINENT OUTFLOW.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY \r\nANOTHER DAY OR SO TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND STRENGTHEN PRIOR\r\nTO REACHING THE SHARP GRADIENT AND A NEGATIVE ANOMALY IN SSTS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 16.0N 107.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 109.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 112.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N 117.6W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-06-20 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nSHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE BAM AND GFDL MODELS SHOW\r\nA SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  BUT THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nUNREALISTICALLY INITIALIZES A TROPICAL STORM NEAR 08N 92W AND\r\nINTENSIFIES IT TO A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THIS COULD CAUSE\r\nTHE SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOVING THE SYSTEM\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD WITH SOME DECELERATION.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR WHERE THE CENTER IS\r\nASSUMED TO BE LOCATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE LAST COUPLE OF\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE BURST HAS PEAKED.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NEAR STORM STRENGTH WITH A 2.5 T NUMBER FROM TAFB AND\r\n2.0 FROM SAB AND KGWC.  THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY AND FORECAST TO A STORM IN 12 HOURS.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER SSTS BELOW 23 DEGREES C IN 72 HOURS\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE THE FORECAST OF SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nDURNING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 16.8N 108.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.6N 110.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 116.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-06-20 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 20 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AND THE MAIN FEATURE IS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO BE A STORM.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS POORLY DEFINED...WE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION IN THIS\r\nADVISORY.  VISIBLE PICTURES LATER TODAY MAY INDICATE IF THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nCROSS THE SHARP GRADIENT OF SST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS SO\r\nSTRENGTHENING...IF OCCURS...HAS TO BE SOON.  BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nWEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 290/16 AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 17.1N 109.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-06-20 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUN 20 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS NRL MONTEREY ARRAY OF SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION. THIS WAS CAUSED PRIMARILY BY PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE LOCATION GIVEN IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THE SYSTEM MAY BE VERY NEAR TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS\r\nBUT... SINCE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...IT IS BEING KEPT AS A\r\nDEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD\r\nBRING THE SYSTEM TO STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE\r\nWEAKENING OVER COOL WATER BEGINS. BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS DISSIPATE THE\r\nDEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING 290/11.  A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE WEST IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 17.5N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 111.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 113.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-06-21 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUN 20 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS GENERATING A RATHER SMALL...AND DIMINISHING...AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND JUST WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON ANALYSES OF\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES.  SOME GROUND TRUTH ON THE INTENSITY COULD COME\r\nFROM SOCORRO ISLAND WHICH WILL BE NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS.  THE SLOWER MOTION NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPERSISTS...NOW TOWARD 295/10 KT.\r\n \r\nA MODEST LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO IN RESPONSE TO TWO FACTORS...A STRONG WSW-ENE ORIENTED\r\nANTICYCLONE THAT LAYS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE\r\nINCREASING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING WHILE THE DEPRESSION\r\nWEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE TRACK MODELS AND OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nARE CONSISTENT WITH THAT EXPECTATION...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS\r\nA MORE SUBSTANTIAL LEFTWARD TURN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 18.1N 110.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 112.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.9N 114.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 19.2N 116.2W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HT VT     24/0000Z                       ...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-06-21 09:00:00","Contents":"YYYZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nGOES ALONG WITH THIS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOT LOOKING WELL WITH JUST A LITTLE DISORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION.  THE CENTER IS WITHIN 50 N MI OF SOCORRO ISLAND AND\r\nTHEIR WIND SPEED AT 03Z WAS 5 MPS.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nWEAKENING AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER 23 DEG C WATER IN 48 HOURS. \r\nDISSIPATION IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 18.2N 111.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.8N 112.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 19.2N 114.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.3N 116.4W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-06-21 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUN 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nGOES ALONG WITH THIS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOT LOOKING WELL WITH JUST A LITTLE CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND WILL BE OVER 25 DEG C WATER LATER TODAY.  THUS...WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN APPROXIMATELY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 18.0N 112.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.2N 114.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 18.3N 116.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N 118.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-06-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE COOLER WATERS ARE HAVING A DRAMATIC EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM...THERE\r\nIS ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION LEFT AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS EXPOSED.  DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 18.3N 113.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.6N 114.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-06-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 1998\r\n \r\nIMAGERY FROM LAST LIGHT VIS AS WELL AS FOG CHANNEL SHOW A VERY WELL\r\nDEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BEEN VOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 6\r\nHOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOL WATER.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 285/09 AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE AS THE CIRCULATION\r\nCONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E UNLESS\r\nUNEXPECTED REGENERATION OCCURS.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED AS A LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM FOR AWHILE ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE\r\nTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER CCCHSFEP1 AND UNDER WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 18.7N 114.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-06-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUN 22 1998\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF\r\nTHE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATEST INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  ALSO...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WELL\r\nFORMED CIRCULATION WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nWITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KTS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS BEING SHEARED BY NORTHEAST\r\nUPPER LEVEL WINDS YESTERDAY MOVED RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE EVENING AND NOW THE NORTHEAST WINDS ARE CREATING GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT\r\nIS ALSO FAVORABLE.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nA HURRICANE IN 48 HRS BECAUSE OF LOW VALUES OF FORECASTED VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND VERY WARM SST ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR THIS DEPRESSION TO BE NAMED IN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND A HURRICANE IN APPROXIMATELY TWO DAYS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/09.  ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN\r\nTHE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED AT THE LATER\r\nFORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DIRECTION OF THE\r\nFORECASTS BUT IS A COMPROMISE IN THE DIFFERENT SPEEDS. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 10.1N  96.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 10.8N  97.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N  99.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.2N 101.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 103.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.7N 107.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-06-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUN 22 1998\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLAS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS ON A MODERATE INTENSIFICATION TREND. VISIBLE PICTURE\r\nANIMATION SHOWS GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADS EXCEPT THE\r\nNORTHEAST WHERE IT IS EITHER NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY INWARD.  THE SYSTEM\r\nIS LOCATED OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SO\r\nTHAT THE SUPPLY OF LATENT AND SENSIBLE HEAT IS NOT A PROBLEM.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KTS.  INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST IN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n  \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/13.  ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN\r\nTHE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE DIRECTION OF THE MODEL FORECASTS BUT IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE IN THE DIFFERENT SPEEDS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 10.9N  97.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.0N  99.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.4N 101.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.8N 104.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.2N 106.4W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.6N 111.2W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-06-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 22 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR STORM NAME....\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS A BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...TOPS NEAR -80C...OCCURRING OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF\r\nBLAS. THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS WELL-DEFINED WHILE\r\nIMPROVING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THE\r\nFORECAST BRINGS BLAS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS. BOTH GFDL\r\nAND SHIPS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO WITH SHIPS SUGGESTING THE WARM SST\r\nAS THE PRIMARY CONTRIBUTING FACTOR.        \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11. THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT\r\nDECELERATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID- TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THEY DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY WITH REGARDS TO THE SPEED. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN CLIPPER AND NHC90 WHILE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE MID AND DEEP BAMS AND LBAR. IT CLOSELY RESEMBLES\r\nTHE GFDL. NOGAPS IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRINGS BLAS MORE NORTHWARD\r\nTOWARDS THE COAST OF MEXICO.    \r\n \r\nGUINEY/MAYFIELD\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 11.2N  98.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 11.9N  99.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 12.9N 101.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N 105.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W    85 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-06-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  THIS IS A PAST 24 HOUR\r\nMOTION.  THE STORM HAS SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE MOTION OVER\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS MAY BE AS SLOW AS 6 KNOTS.  ALL OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 72 HOURS. \r\nTHIS IS BASED ON A RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AS\r\nINDICATED ON THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL RUN.  MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN ABOUT A 10 KNOT SPEED EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER\r\nAND LBAR WHICH IS SOMEWHAT FASTER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE AND NEAR THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nA COLD CDO IS PERSISTING OVER THE CENTER OF THE STORM.  INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE DVORAK T NUMBER 3.5 OR 55 KNOTS\r\nWHICH IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE CURRENT WIND SPEED TO THIS\r\nVALUE.  THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO 85 KNOTS IN\r\n36 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nSHIFOR BRING BLAS TO 90 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS WHILE THE GFLD STAYS BELOW\r\n70 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 11.2N  99.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 11.9N 100.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 102.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 14.2N 103.7W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 110.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-06-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 1998\r\n \r\nBLAS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-\r\nDEFINED AND STRONG BANDING FEATURE IN THE SHAPE OF THE NUMBER\r\n6.  IT COULD MAKE IT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY LATER TODAY...BUT DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT YET SUPPORT INCREASING THE WIND\r\nSPEED ABOVE 55 KT.  THE ORGANIZATIONAL PROCESS HAS LED TO SOME\r\nJUMPING AROUND OF THE ESTIMATED SATELLITE-DERIVED POSITION\r\nESTIMATES.  INITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR 300/11 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z MRF OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE LARGE WSW-ENE ORIENTED\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE THE\r\nFORECAST PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL TROUGHS INTO THE U.S. WEST COAST.\r\nHENCE...LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK HEADING OR SPEED IS SHOWN IN THE NHC\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK\r\nMODELS AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR A MUCH SLOWER SPEED INDICATED BY THE\r\nUKMET...AND THE 06Z GFDL RUN WHICH ENDS UP A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES\r\nNORTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND ITS 00Z FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE PATTERN ALSO CONTAINS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WV IMAGERY\r\nOVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE\r\nCONTRIBUTING TO THE OUTFLOW ALOFT FROM THE CYCLONE.  WITH WARM\r\nWATERS AHEAD AND THIS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.  SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL WATERS COULD\r\nAFFECT BLAS THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 12.0N 100.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.8N 101.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.8N 103.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N 105.6W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N 107.6W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-06-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE PRIMARY RAINBAND WRAPPED\r\nAROUND A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BALL...WITH HINTS OF A BANDING-\r\nTYPE EYE.  TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION HAS REACHED 4.0 AND SUPPORTS\r\nUPGRADING BLAS TO BE THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE YEAR IN THE EASTERN\r\nNORTH PACIFIC.  FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 13 KT...STILL TOWARD\r\nTHE WNW.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AVN RUN MAINTAINS THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH THROUGH WEST\r\nOF BLAS WHICH IMPLIES A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF ITS CURRENT MOTION\r\n...AS INDICATED BY NEARLY ALL TRACK MODELS.  THIS TRACK IS ROUGHLY\r\nPARALLEL TO...AND ABOUT 300 MILES OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  \r\n\r\nA TROUGH THAT MOVES ONSHORE CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS DOES WEAKEN\r\nTHE HIGH A LITTLE...LEAVING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BLAS COULD\r\nEVENTUALLY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON FAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nGFDL TRACK SUGGESTS THIS...BUT IT IS AN OUTLIER FROM THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE AND GFDL METEOROLOGISTS INDICATE THAT THE GFDL MODEL MAY\r\nHAVE BEEN ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY A LESS THAN OPTIMAL AVN\r\nINITIALIZATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...BEFORE BLAS REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS. \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 12.8N 101.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.7N 103.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.7N 105.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.6N 107.9W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 109.7W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-06-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 1998\r\n \r\nBLAS HAS INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING.  AN EYE HAS RECENTLY\r\nAPPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 90 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\nWITH THE OUTFLOW AROUND BLAS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND WARM SST/S...\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ONLY TOWARD THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/14 KNOTS. THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC\r\nANTICYCLONE POSITIONED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO..PER LATEST WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY... SHOULD KEEP BLAS ON THIS GENERAL COURSE THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL 500 MB\r\nENSEMBLE DATA. THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN U.S.\r\nCOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE BAM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/MAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 13.1N 103.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 13.8N 105.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 14.8N 107.9W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N 110.1W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 112.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-06-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUN 24 1998\r\n \r\nA RAGGED EYE IS DEPICTED IN CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND IT IS CLEARLY\r\nDEFINED ON THE LATEST NRL MONTEREY SATELLITE MOSAIC (JEFF HAWKINS\r\nHOME PAGE).  T-NUMBERS ARE OSCILLATING AROUND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING.  WINDS ARE\r\nADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY GFDL...SHIPS AND SHIFOR MODELS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  BLAS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHAT HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST AND BUILD\r\nWESTWARD.  THIS TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH\r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH TURNS BLAS MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 13.4N 104.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 106.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 112.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-06-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUN 24 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE EYE.  THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT\r\nINCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 100 KNOTS.  THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nOUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN PART OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nBLAS HAS NOW PASSED THE HIGHEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT THE\r\nWATERS ARE STILL SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nTODAY.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nAS A RESULT OF OCEAN WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES C.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n295/11.  THERE IS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...AND ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL NHC91.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 14.0N 104.7W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.8N 106.3W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N 108.4W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 113.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-06-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUN 24 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BLAS IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY. \r\nTHE EYE INTERMITTENTLY BECOMES BETTER-DEFINED...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT NUMBERS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING GENERALLY BETWEEN 5.0 AND 6.0. \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON\r\nYIELDED A SIMILAR RANGE FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE KEPT AT 100 KNOTS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO\r\nLOOK IMPRESSIVE AND THE SEA SURFACE IS STILL FAIRLY WARM.  HOWEVER\r\nWITHIN A DAY OR SO...WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION\r\nSCHEME...SHIPS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ROUGHLY 300/11 AND THERE IS A\r\nSTRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK\r\nPREDICTION GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO BLAS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT SEA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE MODEL NHC91.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 14.7N 105.7W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 107.2W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 109.3W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.6N 111.6W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-06-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUN 24 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BLAS HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER DEEPENING\r\nPHASE THIS EVENING WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE WELL-DEFINED AND\r\nCOLDER SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS...-80C. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS\r\nHAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS TOPPING\r\nOUT AROUND 6.0.  SUBJECTIVE 00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB CONCUR. THUS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE\r\nIS INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS. WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ALOFT AND\r\nWARM WATERS BENEATH BLAS SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nOCCUR.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nHEADING...NOTWITHSTANDING SOME TYPICAL EYE WOBBLES.  THE INITIAL\r\nESTIMATED MOTION IS 295/10 KNOTS...VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE MID-TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD\r\nFROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EAST PACIFIC SHOULD KEEP BLAS ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REFLECT THIS MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL...DEEP LAYER BAM AND NHC91.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/MAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 15.0N 106.5W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N 108.0W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 110.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.3N 112.3W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-06-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUN 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOTHING NEW TO ADD SINCE EVERYTHING HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID\r\nIN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A WELL\r\nDEFINED EYE...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION. \r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 7.0 DURING\r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS.  SO...WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS...AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nBLAS IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS...290/10...AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH.  GUIDANCE\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED SO...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE\r\nSAME AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 15.5N 107.3W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 108.7W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.0N 119.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-06-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 25 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGEST SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS ON THE NORTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE EYE WERE ERODING BUT HAVE MADE A COMEBACK IN RECENT\r\nPICTURES.  OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.5\r\nWHILE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 6.0\r\nAND 6.5 RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THIS DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 120 KNOTS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND OVERALL HEALTHY CLOUD PATTERN.  BY 12\r\nHOURS...THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nIS PRESERVED AS BLAS ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS98 INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nBLAS REMAINS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 300/09 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE STRETCHING\r\nFROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO\r\nKEEP BLAS ON THIS GENERAL HEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFDL..BAM DEEP AND\r\nTHE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL NHC91 TRACK MODEL.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 16.1N 108.1W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.7N 109.6W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 111.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 114.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-06-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF BLAS HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  IN FACT...IT HAS DISAPPEARED IN THE LATEST INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES.  THUS...THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING TREND HAS\r\nBEGUN.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT NUMBERS TRENDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KNOTS\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES\r\n22C WATERS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS98\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODELS.  HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING MAY BE\r\nMORE RAPID IF BLAS MOVES AT A FASTER PACE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW OF 305/09 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nMEAN RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC SHOULD\r\nKEEP BLAS ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE AND TAKE A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY HEADING AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL\r\nAND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 16.6N 108.9W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.4N 110.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.6N 112.6W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.7N 115.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N 123.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-06-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 25 1998\r\n \r\nA WARM SPOT EYE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...BUT THE CDO IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS BEFORE.  THE DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n100 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BLAS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER\r\nWATER...SO WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF BLAS WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE AND OUR CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE TRACK IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND P91E.  THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 17.1N 110.1W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.9N 111.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.9N 113.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.8N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.8N 118.6W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 124.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-06-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE INTERMITTENT RINGS OF VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING\r\nTHE WARM SPOT BUT...IN GENERAL...THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS\r\nCONTINUES AS SUGGESTED BY THE SEQUENCE OF OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.  \r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 95 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTAKES BLAS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER...SO WEAKENING WILL\r\nCONTINUE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF BLAS. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.  THE LOWER LEVEL STEERING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 17.3N 111.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 112.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 116.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N 119.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-06-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING THIS MORNING RANGING\r\nFROM 5.5 TO 6.0.  THIS CORRESPONDED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD\r\nRING OF CONVECTION...TOPS TO -70C...AROUND THE EYE.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB FIX THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nAT 5.5...100 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY.  WITH THE\r\nDETERIORATION OF THE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A MORE DECIDEDLY WESTWARD TRACK THE LAST 6 TO\r\n12 HOUR AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 KNOTS.  A STRONG\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF BLAS\r\nKEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  \r\n \r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 17.4N 112.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 116.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.7N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.3N 121.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-06-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS\r\nIS CONTRACTING AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING.  THE EYE IS ALSO A BIT\r\nMORE RAGGED. THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECLINING WITH THE\r\nLATEST VALUES AROUND 5.0...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n90 KNOTS...A 10 KNOT DECREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS SYMMETRIC WITH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE DESPITE\r\nBEING OVER 26C/25C WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND SHOWN IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES.   BLAS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nFALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KNOTS.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF BLAS...KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON\r\nA GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE TRACK IS PREDICTED TO BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL MODEL.  THE DEMISE OF BLAS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF IT\r\nTURNS MORE NORTHWARD THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 17.6N 113.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 115.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 117.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 19.0N 119.7W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 21.0N 126.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-06-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 26 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH BLAS IS CONTRACTING AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS VALUES ARE STILL AT 5.0.\r\nTHUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINS SYMMETRIC WITH A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES THE WEAKENING TREND SHOWN IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10 KNOTS.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF BLAS...KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON\r\nA GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 17.7N 114.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 118.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 120.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.6N 122.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 21.2N 127.3W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-06-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 280/11.  THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nKEEPS A RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ALL OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\nONLY THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR SHOW A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF\r\nMOTION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE MODELS AND SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE OF... THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE FEATURE IS NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO T-NUMBER 4.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS.\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS BLAS ENCOUNTERS ENCREASINGLY\r\nCOLDER SSTS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII ARE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON\r\nSSM/I PASS AT 0402Z.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 17.8N 115.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 18.1N 117.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 18.4N 119.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N 123.8W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 21.5N 128.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-06-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 27 1998\r\n\r\nTHE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A\r\nSMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS.  BLAS IS NEARING 24 DEG C WATERS...\r\nAND...EVEN THOUGH ITS TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SST\r\nISOTHERMS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BLAS SHOULD WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AROUND 12\r\nKNOTS.  THE 06Z AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A WELL-\r\nDEFINED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUS A\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER AND A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.  THIS IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN...THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM FORECAST.  THE DEEP-LAYER BAM\r\nSHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT BY THAT\r\nTIME BLAS SHOULD BE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE AFFECTED\r\nMAINLY BY LOWER- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 18.0N 117.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 18.4N 119.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 18.8N 121.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 19.3N 123.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.8N 126.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-06-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 1998\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE CENTER...AND T-NUMBERS\r\nARE SLOWLY DECLINING.  HOWEVER DVORAK RULES FOR CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nSTILL SUPPORT A MAXIMUM WIND SPEED OF 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS MOVING PRACTICALLY PARALLEL TO THE SST\r\nISOTHERMS... THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COOLING TO FURTHER WEAKEN BLAS. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD BLAS IS PREDICTED TO BE DISSIPATING OVER\r\nWATERS NEAR 23 DEG C.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE THE\r\nSYSTEM WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAN EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT CONTINUES TO CARRY BLAS WESTWARD...NEAR\r\n12 KNOTS.  TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE\r\nDEEPER-LAYER STEERING MODELS SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT\r\nIN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  NONETHELESS...A LOW- TO MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE FOR THE SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE ITS\r\nPREDECESSOR...IS MORE WESTWARD AND IN LINE WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING.  THIS IS APPROPRIATE FOR A WEAKENING STORM.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 18.1N 118.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 18.3N 120.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 18.7N 122.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 125.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-06-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUN 27 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE NEAR THE CENTER AND IS\r\nCORROBORATED BY DECREASING T-NUMBERS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS 65\r\nKNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nAN EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT CONTINUES TO CARRY BLAS WESTWARD...NEAR\r\n12 KNOTS.  TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOW SOME SPREAD...WITH THE\r\nDEEPER-LAYER STEERING MODELS SHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT\r\nIN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  NONETHELESS...A LOW- TO MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DUE\r\nWEST AND IN LINE WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL STEERING. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 17.8N 119.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 17.8N 121.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 17.8N 123.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.8N 126.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 17.8N 128.9W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.8N 133.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-06-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998\r\n \r\nBLAS CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLAS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORT THIS IDEA WITH THE LBAR\r\nAND DEEP BAM SHOWING SOME NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE AVIATION...\r\nSHALLOW BAM AND NOGAPS SHOWING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN COMPONENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR AND AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY CONTINUING A 270/12 MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS BUT THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE CALLS FOR MAINTAINING HURRICANE FORCE FOR A WHILE LONGER. \r\nBLAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 17.9N 120.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N 124.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.9N 127.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 17.9N 129.8W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 134.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-06-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998\r\n \r\nA WARM SPOT EYE HAS REAPPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A SMALL AREA OF COLD TOPPED CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY. \r\nBLAS WAS A STRONG HURRICANE AT ONE TIME...SO IT WILL STILL TAKE A\r\nWHILE FOR IT TO SPIN DOWN.  THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER\r\n23 TO 24C WATER...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IS ROUGHLY\r\nPARALLELS THESE ISOTHERMS.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATE\r\nTHE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/12.  A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO\r\nCONTINUE.  CURRENT TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 17.9N 121.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N 123.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.0N 126.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 128.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 131.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-06-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998\r\n \r\nTHE WARM SPOT CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED...AND THE COLDEST TOPS WITHIN\r\nTHE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAVE WARMED.  BLAS IS DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA 55 KNOT TROPICAL STORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 22 TO\r\n23C WATER...AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ROUGHLY PARALLELS\r\nTHESE ISOTHERMS.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM\r\nBEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE.\r\nCURRENT TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE SHALLOW BAM BUT FASTER THAN CLIPER.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 18.0N 122.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 124.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 126.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-06-29 03:00:00","Contents":"YZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUN 28 1998\r\n\r\nCLOUD TOPS NEAR THE STORM CENTER HAVE WARMED A LITTLE MORE THIS\r\nEVENING BUT SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL CIRCULATION. \r\nCURRENT MAXIMUM WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 50 KNOTS.  BLAS HAS REMAINED\r\nIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THIS IS LIKELY ONE OF THE REASONS\r\nTHAT IT HAS BEEN SO SLOW TO WEAKEN...IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY COOL\r\nWATERS.  NOTWITHSTANDING...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BLAS\r\nSHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 10\r\nKNOTS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED HOWEVER THAT...IN GENERAL...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICALLY-BASED\r\nTRACK PREDICTION MODELS HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM. \r\nHENCE...IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS THAT SHOWED A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION.  \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 18.3N 123.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.4N 125.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.7N 127.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.3N 132.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-06-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUN 29 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL RUN\r\nSHOWS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nLBAR...BAM AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL P91E SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION WHILE THE AVIATION MODEL... GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A SLIGHT\r\nSOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAS BLAS SPINS DOWN OVER COOL WATER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nGONE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND DISSIPATION\r\nIS EXPECTED AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 18.4N 124.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.6N 126.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.9N 128.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 19.2N 130.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 133.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N 137.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-06-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUN 29 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nIN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS...VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS.  BLAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...\r\nAND WILL LIKELY BE CARRIED AS A LOW IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST AFTER\r\nANOTHER DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF BLAS SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  CURRENT TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE FIXES.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 18.1N 126.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.2N 127.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.4N 130.1W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.7N 132.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 134.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 139.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-06-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUN 29 1998\r\n \r\nA WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\n...BUT IT IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  BLAS WAS FORMERLY A VERY\r\nSTRONG HURRICANE AND IT IS STILL TAKING ITS TIME IN SPINNING DOWN.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KGWC AND SAB.  BLAS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS\r\nIT ENTRAINS DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST...AND WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON.  IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE CARRIED AS A\r\nLOW IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THE GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THIS FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12.  A LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF BLAS SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 18.1N 127.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.2N 128.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 18.3N 131.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.6N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N 136.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 141.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-06-30 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 29 1998\r\n \r\nGOES 9 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BLAS CONTINUES AS\r\nA LARGE WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS LACKING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  BLAS IS BECOMING INVOLVED WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS\r\nFIELD WHICH IMPLIES THAT A DRIER..MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS BEING\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION.  BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...\r\nAND BLAS IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.  THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW CAN BE TRACKED IN THE TPC HIGH SEAS FORECAST IF\r\nNECESSARY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND MAINTAINS THE\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 18.2N 128.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.3N 130.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 132.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.7N 134.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 142.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-06-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...THE FORECAST TRACK IS MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nBLAS IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 18.2N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 18.3N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 18.4N 134.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 18.6N 137.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 18.8N 140.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N 144.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-06-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 30 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BUT WEAKENING SWIRL OF MOSTLY LOW\r\nCLOUDS...VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13\r\nAND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING SHOULD ALLOW THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON BLAS.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY BE CARRIED FOR A LITTLE\r\nWHILE LONGER ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER CCCHSFEP1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nFZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 18.0N 131.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 133.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 18.2N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 18.5N 139.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-07-17 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 1998\r\n \r\nA 45-KNOT OBSERVATION FROM SHIP KGTI AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF\r\nMEXICO DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nHAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CELIA\r\nCAN NOW BE OBSERVED BY THE CUYUTLAN RADAR IN MEXICO.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST/S.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/14 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SO THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...\r\nINCLUDING CLIMATOLOGY.   \r\n\r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THAT THERE ARE BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS\r\nAPPROACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ZIHUATANEJO.  THIS ACTIVITY\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY...PRODUCING HEAVY\r\nRAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n  \r\nGUINEY/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 18.4N 107.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.4N 108.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.1N 111.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 20.6N 113.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-07-17 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CELIA HAS NOT INCREASED IN INTENSITY\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  THE SYSTEM IS ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  RADAR DATA FROM THE\r\nCUYUTLAN MEXICO SHOWS THE CENTER IS RATHER BROAD AND NOT WELL-\r\nDEFINED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KNOTS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST/S.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO STEER CELIA ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A MORE WESTERLY HEADING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM\r\nWEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES DOMINANT.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 19.2N 107.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.1N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 21.1N 111.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 23.0N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-07-18 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n310/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE 12Z AVIATION MODEL HAS A STRONG SPURIOUS VORTEX NEAR 17N 117W\r\nWHICH REDUCES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK BRINGS THE CENTER TO ABOUT 100 NMI OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE POSTED\r\nFOR THIS AREA AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIP 4XGX AT 17Z REPORTED 50 KNOTS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE STORM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT\r\nBEEN WELL ORGANIZED AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS AT MOST. \r\nHOWEVER DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT\r\nINCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS COLDER\r\nWATER IS ENCOUNTERED.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 19.9N 108.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 110.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N 112.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N 115.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 121.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-07-18 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF CELIA CAN BE OBSERVED FROM LOS CABOS RADAR IN MEXICO\r\nAND IT IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE LAST AVAILABLE SSM/I IMAGE. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE STORM IS JUST PASSING ABOUT 120 N MI TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE MOVING NEARLY 305/15.\r\nIF THIS TRACK CONTINUES...AS EXPECTED...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS INDICATED BY T-\r\nNUMBERS.  THE CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nSMALL BUT CONCENTRATED AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR LESS...CELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOL\r\nWATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  GFDL MODEL ALSO WEAKENS\r\nCELIA. \r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS FORECAST A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. SINCE\r\nCELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...IT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nNOTE: PLEASE IGNORE THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF\r\nCELIA GENERATED BY THE AVN MODEL.  THIS FEATURE IS SO LARGE AND SO\r\nUNREALISTIC IN THE MODEL THAT CELIA IS PRACTICALLY NOT REPRESENTED. \r\n      \r\nAVILA  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 20.8N 110.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 23.5N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 24.5N 117.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-07-18 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998\r\n \r\nCELIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD 305/15 KT.  CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT WINDS SHOULD SOON\r\nDECREASE FROM THE ESTIMATED 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  TWO SHIP\r\nREPORTS...ONE AT 12Z AND ONE FROM VWSD AT 03Z...IMPLY A SOMEWHAT\r\nSMALLER CIRCULATION THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AVN...LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS...CONTAINS SPURIOUS STRONG\r\nVORTICES IN ITS INITIALIZATION WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE AN ADVERSE\r\nIMPACT ON ITS TRACK FORECAST OF CELIA.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE\r\nCONTROLLING FEATURE FOR TRACK IS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NW TO N OF CELIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHAT HIGH AND THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING SHOULD\r\nDRIVE CELIA GENERALLY TOWARD THE NW AND THEN THE WNW AS INDICATED BY\r\nMOST TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE REDUCED WIND RADII...IT IS LIKELY\r\nTHAT THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS LESSENED.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO IS DISCONTINUING THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING AS OF 1500 UTC.  ROUGH SEAS WILL LIKELY\r\nPERSIST...HOWEVER...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE ADJACENT\r\nMARINE AREAS.\r\n \r\nCELIA IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C WATERS.  BY 36 HOURS IT WILL BE OVER\r\n21C WATERS.  THEREFORE...A SHARP WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 21.7N 111.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 22.8N 113.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N 116.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N 119.1W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 25.8N 121.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-07-18 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998\r\n \r\nAN ISOLATED STRONG CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING\r\nAROUND...CLOSE-IN...TO THE CENTER.  OTHERWISE...THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.  INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 45 KT...AS PROVIDED BY TAFB AND SAB.  THE TRACK HAS\r\nLEANED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...NOW TOWARD 295/13 KT.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nCELIA.  12Z AVN MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A GENERALLY WNW\r\nTRACK FOR THE CELIA TO THE SOUTH OF THIS HIGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST.  THE SEVERAL MORE INTENSE\r\nVORTICES SHOWN IN THE AVN INITIALIZATION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nSHOULD BE IGNORED.\r\n \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 21.8N 113.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 22.6N 115.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 23.7N 117.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 24.7N 120.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 25.5N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-07-19 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/13.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ALL\r\nSHOWS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH\r\nSTEERING PROVIDED BY A HIGH ANCHORED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nA SMALL BAND OF MODERATELY DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AROUND THE\r\nCENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nGRADUAL DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS OR SO OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER\r\nWATER. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 22.2N 114.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 22.9N 115.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 23.8N 118.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 24.8N 120.4W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 25.8N 122.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-07-19 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 1998\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nSST ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS ENTERING 24-25C WATERS.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT\r\nCELIA IS ON A WEAKENING TREND WITH T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THE\r\nSYSTEM EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOWS THAT CELIA HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY HEADING.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY 06Z\r\nTAFB AND SAB FIX LOCATIONS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10\r\nKNOTS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT RELY ON AVIATION MODEL FIELDS\r\n...WHICH CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...ARE\r\nCONSIDERED SUSPECT DUE TO THE SPURIOUS VORTEX SOUTHWEST OF CELIA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  THIS IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...\r\nNOGAPS AND UKMET GUIDANCE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC\r\nSTEERING.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 22.0N 115.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 22.1N 116.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 22.3N 118.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 22.4N 120.8W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 22.5N 122.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-07-19 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 19 1998\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...CELIA STILL HAS A WELL-\r\nORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS.  SINCE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IN THE STORM/S ENVIRONMENT IS LIGHT...WEAKENING WILL\r\nBE SLOW.  NONETHELESS AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CYCLONE/S\r\nPATH ARE IN THE 22-23 DEG C RANGE IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nNOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  MOTION\r\nCONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 9 KNOTS.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS GENERALLY\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  AS HAS BEEN NOTED\r\nEARLIER...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS LIKELY BEING ADVERSELY\r\nAFFECTED BY A LARGE SPURIOUS VORTEX IN THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nSITUATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CELIA.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 22.1N 115.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 22.3N 117.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 22.6N 119.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 22.8N 121.3W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-07-19 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 1998\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER SPARSE IN CELIA...ALTHOUGH A FEW\r\nCELLS SPORADICALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.  THE CYCLONE IS STILL\r\nFAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...AS PER DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM THE TPC TROPICAL\r\nANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST SINCE SST/S ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 22-23 DEG C RANGE\r\nALONG THE PATH OF THE SYSTEM.  CELIA SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES TO THE MOTION ARE APPARENT AND THE TRACK FORECAST FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS MERELY EXTENDED FARTHER TO THE WEST. \r\nAGAIN...AS NOTED EARLIER...THE LACK OF REAL DATA AND THE PRESENCE OF\r\nSPURIOUS VORTICES IN THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAKES MOST OF OUR\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODEL OUTPUT...AT BEST...QUESTIONABLE.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 22.2N 116.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.6N 120.4W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 22.8N 122.6W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     22/1800...DISSIPATED  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-07-20 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 1998\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY EASTERLIES AS THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nA WELL-ESTABLISHED EAST-WEST RIDGE ALONG 30 TO 35 DEGREES NORTH\r\nLATITUDE.  FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...A MOTION JUST NORTH\r\nOF DUE WESTWARD IS MAINTAINED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.\r\n\r\nA SMALL AREA OF SPORADIC CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.   BUT\r\nSSTS ARE NEAR 23 DEGREES C AND DISSIPATION SHOULD COMMENCE SOON.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 22.2N 117.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 22.4N 119.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 22.6N 121.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    20 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W    DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-07-20 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 20 1998\r\n \r\nCELIA RETAINS A DISTINCT CIRCULATION OF LOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS.\r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ON IR IMAGES...HOWEVER\r\n...WITH CURRENT ESTIMATES SHOWING A SLOWING TO ABOUT 7 KT ON A\r\nNEARLY DUE WESTWARD HEADING.  THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM.  WITH\r\nDVORAK T/CI NUMBERS NOW 1.5/2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.  THE REMAINING\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY UNWIND WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY\r\nTO BE DECLARED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 22.1N 118.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 22.1N 119.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 22.2N 121.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 22.2N 122.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 20 1998\r\n \r\nCELIA PERSISTS AS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OF LOW- TO\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 2.0...30 KNOTS.\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL BE HELD AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK CONTINUES THE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD\r\n...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 22.1N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 22.1N 120.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 22.1N 121.7W    20 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 22.1N 123.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 20 1998\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THERE IS STILL A DISTINCT SWIRL\r\nOF LOW CLOUDS IDENTIFYING THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.  CELIA IS IN A\r\nSTABLE...COOL WATER ENVIRONMENT AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS\r\nFORECAST.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES REQUIRED ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN\r\nTRACK.  A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF AROUND 8 KNOTS OR SO IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE UNTIL CELIA/S DEMISE.\r\n\r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 22.4N 120.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 22.6N 121.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 22.7N 123.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.8N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 20 1998\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH WINDS OF\r\n25 KNOTS OR LESS.  IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AT 280/08 UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST\r\nISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER MIAHSFEP2\r\nAND WMO HEADER FZPNO3.\r\n\r\nLAWRENNCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 22.7N 121.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 22.9N 122.4W    20 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 23.2N 124.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 23.4N 125.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 23 1998\r\n\r\nTHE DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA RETAINS A DISTINCT\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT\r\nCONCENTRATED...THERE IS ENOUGH BANDING TO ALLOW TAFB AND SAB TO GIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0...AND TO SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MOST PROMINENT\r\nIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...REPRESENTING A CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY\r\nWHEN A SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WAS EVIDENT.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nTOWARD ABOUT 290/11 KT.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED\r\nOVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST AND A TROUGH ALOFT NEAR THE WEST COAST.  THE\r\n00Z AVN IS INITIALIZED...CONTAMINATED...WITH A STRONG MULTI-CENTERED\r\nVORTEX...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WNW OF THE DEPRESSION.  THERE\r\nIS LITTLE IF ANY INDICATION OF THE ACTUAL DISTURBANCE.  WITH NO\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THAT MODEL/S FORECAST...I AM LEFT WITH YESTERDAY/S\r\nNOGAPS OUTPUT WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nPATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  \r\n\r\nLACKING RELIABLE CURRENT DYNAMICAL MODEL DATA...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...CLIPER AND SHIFOR.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 12.8N 112.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.2N 113.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.7N 115.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 14.3N 117.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.8N 119.7W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF TD 5-E IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION AND ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS\r\nCONCENTRATED DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 2.0 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD JUST BELOW STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nANALYSES BY THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE\r\nSTUDIES SHOW LOW VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\nTHEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nNOTHING IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL CHANGE THE GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 12.9N 113.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.2N 114.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.7N 116.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.3N 118.6W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.7N 120.6W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.7N 125.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE\r\nWITH BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING FURTHER AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UP SLIGHTLY TO\r\n2.5...35 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY.  WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND IMPROVING ELSEWHERE...AND A LOW VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  DARBY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 HOURS.  NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHES MARGINALLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THIS AFTERNOON\r\nAT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW\r\n285/11 KNOTS.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DENOTED\r\nIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST\r\nOF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A TAD TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CLIPER...GFDL...\r\nAND THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 13.3N 114.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.7N 116.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 118.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 14.3N 120.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 122.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 23 1998\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS WELL DEFINED CLOUD\r\nBANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER BUT IT LACKS CENTRAL FEATURES. IR\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD AT THIS TIME. \r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 2.5 SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40\r\nKNOTS. SHIFOR SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY WHILE THE\r\nGFDL FORECASTS NO CHANGE AT ALL.  DARBY IS MOVING OVER WARM\r\nWATERS...LOW LATITUDES...AND THERE IS NO WIND SHEAR AHEAD. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS IN 36 HOURS...FOLLOWING SHIPS MODEL AND AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SO A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nWITH ALL TRACK MODELS EXCEPT BY THE HIGHLY UNLIKELY SOLUTION OF THE\r\nAVN WHICH TURNS DARBY SOUTHWESTWARD. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 13.2N 114.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 13.2N 116.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.0N 120.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 122.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 14.5N 127.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE TONIGHT IN A SMALL AREA\r\nAROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND RATHER VIGOROUS BANDS ARE\r\nNOTED...PARTICULARLY TO THE NW OF THE CENTER.  THE ESTIMATED WIND\r\nSPEED BASED ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS NOW 50 KT.  INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n285/9 KT.\r\n \r\nDARBY/S MOTION APPEARS TO BE CONTROLLED PRIMARILY BY THE ANTICYCLONE\r\nTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.  A RATHER LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION ALOFT...EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE STORM...IS NOT INFLUENCING THE MOTION AT THIS TIME.  THE 00Z\r\nAVN AND GFDL IMPLY SOME WESTWARD RIDGING OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THAT DEVELOPMENT AND\r\nSHOWS A MOSTLY WNW TO W MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION.\r\n \r\nA HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY CURRENT IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWEST\r\nPART OF THE CIRCULATION.  THIS HAS INTERFERED SOMEWHAT WITH THE\r\nOUTFLOW THAT HAD BEEN MOSTLY UNIMPEDED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nOVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  AS YET...THIS FEATURE HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAFFECTED DARBY/S DEVELOPMENT.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS AGAIN\r\nFORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SW SHEAR\r\nWILL DIMINISH WHEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH BEGINS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 13.7N 115.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 117.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.4N 119.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.7N 121.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 123.8W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 15.5N 129.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 1998\r\n \r\nDARBY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH\r\nINCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WELL-DEFINED\r\nBANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.  MOREOVER...THERE\r\nHAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY... SUGGESTIVE OF EYE DEVELOPMENT...WITHIN THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE NOW 4.0...65 KNOTS.  THUS...DARBY IS BEING UPGRADED TO HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS.\r\n \r\nDARBY CONTINUES ON A CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 KNOTS.  DARBY/S MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE CONTROLLED PRIMARILY BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH\r\nTO NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N/125W WILL CUT-OFF AND\r\nDRIFT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE WESTWARD BUILDING RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST ACCEPTS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GENERAL WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.\r\n \r\nUPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO IMPEDANCE TO\r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH\r\nTHE ANTICIPATION OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE NOTED\r\nABOVE.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS DECREASED SLIGHTLY BY 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHES MARGINALLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 14.0N 116.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.4N 118.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 14.8N 120.6W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.3N 123.1W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.8N 125.7W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N 131.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nALL SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION THROUGN\r\n72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR FROM THE AVIATION MODEL 12Z RUN\r\nAS TO WHY THE MOTION SHOULD ACCELERATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS\r\nONLY A SMALL ACCELERATION.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.  THIS\r\nIS BETWEEN THE 4.5 DVORAK T NUMBER FROM TAFB AND THE 5.0 T NUMBER\r\nFROM SAB.  THE ONLY FACTOR TO AFFECT THE INCREASING INTENSITY TREND\r\nIS THAT THE TRACK MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 14.7N 117.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.2N 119.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.7N 124.2W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 1998\r\n\r\nDARBY HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE 100 KNOTS.  THIS ESTIMATE IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM SAB...TAFB AND RAW NUMBERS OBTAINED FROM THE NEW OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE (ODT). THESE RAW NUMBERS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING\r\nAROUND 5.0 AND 6.0.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXCELLENT AND CONSISTS OF\r\nA DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CDO...WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DARBY HAS AT LEAST 24 MORE HOURS OVER WARM\r\nWATERS...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THEREAFTER... THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 25 DEGREE ISOTHERM AND WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE HURRICANE IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODEL BUT SLOWER THAN SHIFOR AND MUCH SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE GFDL.  THE GFDL WEAKENS DARBY TO A 50-KNOT STORM IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS. \r\n \r\nDARBY...LIKE MOST OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANES IS MOVING AT\r\n290/10.  SINCE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\n...THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH GUIDANCE.        \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 15.0N 118.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 120.1W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 122.0W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N 124.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 132.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 1998\r\n \r\nA WELL-DEFINED EYE AND DISTINCT BANDING REMAIN EVIDENT ON SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES.  THE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED\r\nAS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAY HAVE REACHED A PLATEAU AT 5.5...\r\nABOUT 100 KT.  DARBY IS NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST...ABOUT 11 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z AVN FORECASTS A DISCONTINUOUS RETROGRESSION OF THE STRONG\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTER FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN NEVADA DURING THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.  THIS SHOULD MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN DARBY/S TRACK...UNLESS THE\r\nCYCLONE OUTRUNS THE HIGH AND IS AFFECTED BY THE INCREASING\r\nSOUTHERLIES FORECAST ALONG 125W NORTH OF 20N...BETWEEN THE HIGH AND\r\nTHE NEIGHBORING LOW ALOFT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 15.5N 119.8W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N 121.5W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 123.6W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.7N 125.8W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 128.2W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 133.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE NEAR\r\n125 TO 130 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.  BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO\r\nRETROGRADE WESTWARD SUCH THAT THE MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n\r\nA WELL DEFINED EYE PERSISTS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nNEAR 105 KNOTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS WHEN DARBY ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 15.7N 121.0W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.3N 122.6W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N 125.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 127.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.4N 130.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 135.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IGNORE THIS\r\nFEATURE AND SHOW A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...EXCEPT THE AVIATION MODEL WHICH DEVELOPS A SOUTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE MODELS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE AS OF ABOUT 18Z.  THE WIND\r\nSPEED IS DROPPED 5 KNOTS TO 100 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS AND A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER 23 DEGREE C WATER\r\nBY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 16.0N 122.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.4N 123.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N 125.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.6N 127.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.2N 130.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 134.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 25 1998\r\n\r\nDARBY BEGAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS. THE EYE IS NOT\r\nLONGER DEPICTED BUT IT MAY COME BACK TEMPORARILY AND CONVECTION IS\r\nDIMINISHING.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS  AND A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST SINCE DARBY WILL OVER 25\r\nDEGREE WATERS IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS EXCEPT UK AND AVN WHICH MOVE\r\nDARBY WEST AND SOUTHWEST RESPECTIVELY. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 16.2N 123.1W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 16.5N 124.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.3N 127.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 132.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 137.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 1998\r\n\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT...FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INTENSITY\r\nHAS LEVELLED OFF NEAR 90 KNOTS.  A LARGE EYE HAS RE-APPEARED...AND\r\nDARBY HAS LIKELY BEEN UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL PHASE AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY INFRARED AND MICROWAVE DATA.  ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMMS TROPICAL CYCLONE HOMEPAGE SHOW\r\nINCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR 130W LONGITUDE...AND COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE HURRICANE AS\r\nWELL.  THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...285/11.  A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC LOW IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 31N130W...BUT\r\nTHIS FEATURE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE EXERTING MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE\r\nMOTION OF DARBY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MORE OR LESS MAINTAINS\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...SANS THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS WHOSE\r\nTRACKS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 16.3N 124.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 16.7N 126.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N 128.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.9N 131.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 133.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-07-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL 00Z RUN\r\nSHOWS A CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nIT  ALSO SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS SUCH THAT THE TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS EXCEPT NOGAPS AND THE AVIATION MODEL ITSELF WHICH SHOW A\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE CONCENSUS OF THE MODELS AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nA WELL-DEFINED LARGE EYE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST MOSTLY PARALLELS THE SST ISOPLETHS WITH THE CENTER NEAR 24\r\nDEG C WATER BY 72 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...A LITTLE SLOWER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 16.3N 125.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 127.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.9N 130.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.4N 132.7W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N 135.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 141.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL 12Z\r\nRUN...LIKE THE 00Z RUN...SHOWS A CUT-OFF 500 MB LOW TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  IT  ALSO SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS SUCH THAT THE TRACK\r\nSHOULD REMAIN ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ALL SHOWS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS EXCEPT THE AVIATION MODEL WHICH IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS WITH THE GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL AND UKMET WHICH ARE WITHIN 25 NMI OF EACH OTHER AT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nA WELL-DEFINED EYE CONTINUES TO PERSIST AND DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nINCREASE THE WIND SPEED TO 100 KNOTS AGAIN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOPLETHS SO THAT WEAKENING MAY BE SLOW\r\nAND IS SLOWED DOWN SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 16.3N 127.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.7N 131.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 17.1N 134.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 137.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 143.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 26 1998\r\n\r\nDARBY IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE THAT CLEARLY SHOWS THAT SKILLS IN\r\nPREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGES ARE LOW.  THIS IS DIFFICULT PROBLEM\r\nTHAT BOTH OPERATIONAL AND RESEARCH COMMUNITIES ARE TRYING TO\r\nOVERCOME.  HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND EVERY AVAILABLE MODEL...RANGING\r\nFROM THE SIMPLE SHIFOR TO THE HIGHLY SOPHISTICATED STATE OF THE ART\r\nGFDL...FORECAST WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nDARBY DID NOT WEAKEN AS FORECAST AND IN FACT...IT COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nBIT STRONGER TODAY IF THE NEW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE CONSIDERED.\r\nTHESE NUMBERS ARE PEAKING AROUND A 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.\r\nHOWEVER...MORE RELIABLE SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nREMAIN ABOUT 5.5 GIVING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 100 KNOTS.  THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT AND LARGE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL\r\nDEFINED CDO BUT WITHOUT BANDING FEATURES.  DARBY IS MOVING PARALLEL\r\nTO THE 25 DEGREE SST ISOTHERM SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED\r\nAND AS SUGGESTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.    \r\n\r\nDARBY IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN\r\nANTICYCLONE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THEREFORE...NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SMALL TURN\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  ON THIS TRACK...IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS...DARBY WILL BE\r\nCROSSING 140 DEGREES WEST...MOVING INTO THE HONOLULU AREA OF\r\nRESPONSIBILITY. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 16.5N 128.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N 130.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 17.0N 132.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N 138.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 144.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 27 1998\r\n\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT DARBY\r\nREMAINS VERY WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nABOUT 25 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THUS FAR...DARBY HAS KEPT FAR ENOUGH TO\r\nTHE SOUTH SO AS TO AVOID THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR 20N\r\nLATITUDE.   THE HURRICANE APPARENTLY UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...LEADING TO THE\r\nSECOND PEAK IN INTENSITY.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nGO THROUGH ANOTHER SUCH CYCLE OR NOT.  THIS LIKELY DEPENDS ON HOW\r\nMUCH LONGER THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT REMAIN\r\nFAVORABLE.  SINCE THE CURRENT TREND SUGGESTS SLOW WEAKENING...AND\r\nEYEWALL CYCLES ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORETELL...GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS PREDICTED AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE MOTION OR THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  STEERING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-\r\nLAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY...ALONG ABOUT 27N LATITUDE. \r\nTHE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN SHOWS THIS RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH\r\n145W LONGITUDE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nON THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...DARBY WILL BE NEARING THE\r\nBORDER OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTERS AREA OF\r\nRESPONSIBILITY...140W...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.        \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 16.5N 129.5W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.7N 131.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.1N 133.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 136.3W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 139.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 144.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 27 1998\r\n \r\nDARBY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO WITH\r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS AVERAGING BETWEEN 5.5 AND 5.7.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE\r\nFEATURE...ABOUT 25 N MI IN DIAMETER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n100 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH DARBY EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS\r\nIT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF DARBY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nHEADING IS ANTICIPATED AS DARBY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH BRINGS DARBY INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTERS AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY...140W...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 16.8N 130.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 16.9N 132.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.3N 135.3W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 17.8N 138.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N 141.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 146.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 27 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/13.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS AN INCREASING NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WITH TIME...\r\nAPPARENTLY DUE TO A 500-MB LOW INITIALIZED ON THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nNORTHWEST OF HAWAII.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nAGAIN THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AS THE TRACK PARALLELS THE\r\nSST ISOPLETHS.  HOWEVER GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS AS DARBY ENCOUNTERS SSTS IN THE 25 DEG C RANGE.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 16.9N 132.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 17.1N 134.4W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 17.6N 137.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 18.2N 139.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 18.9N 142.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 21.0N 148.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 27 1998\r\n\r\nDARBY CONSISTS OF A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY AN EYEWALL AND NO\r\nBANDING FEATURES. T-NUMBERS ARE ALREADY DECREASING BUT DARBY REMAINS\r\nAS 100-KNOT HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY CI NUMBERS.  IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. \r\n\r\nNOTHING HAS CHANGED...THE SAME STEERING PATTERN...AND THE SAME\r\nMOTION...275/13.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN DARBY MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nDARBY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS 140W AND MOVE INTO THE HONOLULU AREA OF\r\nRESPONSIBILITY IN A DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 17.1N 133.7W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 17.2N 135.8W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 17.7N 138.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N 141.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 144.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 21.5N 149.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS BECOMING DIFFUSE AND OVERALL DARBY LOOKS WEAKER THAN IT\r\nWAS 24 HOURS AGO.  CURRENT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 90 KNOTS. \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM AND\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE RATE OF WEAKENING WILL LIKELY\r\nINCREASE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE DIRECTION OF MOTION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DARBY SHOULD BE NEARING THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE IN A FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nPASCH \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 17.5N 135.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 18.7N 140.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 143.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 145.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.5N 150.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n \r\nDARBY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION HAVING\r\nDECREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  MOREOVER...THE EYE IS \r\nNO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE STRONGER\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT NEAR 140W IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND ANALYSES BY THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK CONTINUES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD\r\n...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DARBY\r\nSHOULD BE CROSSING 140W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING IT INTO\r\nTHE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. \r\n \r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 18.1N 136.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.7N 138.7W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 141.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 20.7N 144.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 146.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 24.5N 151.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-07-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT THE STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUD FIELD WEST OF DARBY IS BECOMING INVOLVED WITH THE WESTERN\r\nFLANK OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECREASE IN THE\r\nAREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 75 KNOTS...IN LINE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB AND KGWC.  THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WILL \r\nBE ACCELERATED SOMEWHAT BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNWIND\r\nAS IT MOVES INTO INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES DURING THE DAY SUGGEST THAT DARBY IS MOVING ON A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS ADJUSTED TO 280/14 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS NEARING THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE WITH A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BEYOND 24 HOURS\r\nAND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH BAM SHALLOW...THE GFDL...AND THE\r\nAVIATION TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS DARBY TO 140W...DENOTING THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY....LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 18.1N 138.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.6N 140.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.4N 143.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 146.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N 149.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 24.5N 153.5W    25 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-07-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 1998\r\n \r\nDARBY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IN PART DUE TO SLOWLY COOLING WATERS\r\nALONG THE TRACK AND IN PART TO INCREASING SHEAR.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NOW SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST GREATLY\r\nDISTORTING DARBY/S MOISTURE PATTERN WITH AN ELONGATED PLUME HEADING\r\nNORTHWARD.  DEEP CONVECTION...AS MEASURED BY TOPS LOWER THAN -50C...\r\nIS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATED\r\nAT 70 KT.  INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/16 KT.\r\n \r\nDARBY APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE AND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO GAIN IN NORTHWARD COMPONENT...UNTIL IT WEAKENS TO\r\nTHE POINT OF BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL CURRENT IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK IS PARALLEL TO BAMM FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nPARALLEL TO BAMS THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW CROSSING 140W AND ENTERING THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nPROVIDED BY THE NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HAWAII.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 18.6N 140.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.4N 142.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.9N 144.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 22.4N 147.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 23.8N 150.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N 152.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 29 1998\r\n \r\nAN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 150 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST\r\nOF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AND IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06 AND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR ONLY ABOUT 12 HOURS OLD.  THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION CAUSING IT TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK\r\nFOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nREASONING.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS IS FORECAST.\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CALLS FOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS\r\nBUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE WEAKENING AT\r\nPRESENT.  SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 14.7N 101.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.1N 102.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N 103.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.1N 105.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 107.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-07-30 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\n...CORRECTED DISCUSSION NUMBER...\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB\r\nWASHINGTON ARE AT 35 KNOTS...SUPPORTING THE UPGRADING OF THE SYSTEM\r\nSOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO TO TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE.  THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO DEVELOP...WITH CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER AND BANDING FEATURES TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS.   WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE AREA AND SST/S IN THE 28-29 DEG C RANGE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nSEEMS INEVITABLE.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD AT 10-11 KNOTS.  THERE IS A\r\nLARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF ESTELLE.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT WESTWARD\r\nMOVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS ALSO IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...AND ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 14.7N 103.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 14.9N 105.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 15.1N 107.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 15.3N 110.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N 117.1W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-07-30 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF ESTELLE HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.\r\nTHE SYSTEM APPEARS WELL ORGANIZED WITH STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREMAIN ABOVE 28 DEG C FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE STORM IS LOCATED\r\nSOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE FAIRLY RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME (SHIPS).  \r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN RUN\r\nINDICATES THAT ESTELLE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED AS ESTELLE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS.\r\nTHIS MOTION IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nAND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 14.8N 104.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.0N 106.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N 110.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 113.4W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 16.8N 118.3W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-07-30 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n\r\nESTELLE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS OCCURRING ON ALL SIDES OF THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nPRESENTATION ON THE VISIBLE IMAGE IS IMPRESSIVE. THE STORM SHOULD\r\nREMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SO THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE. \r\n\r\nTHE PREDICTED TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\nTHE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE BAM AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT SLOWER\r\nMOTION THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL NHC91 WHICH HAS\r\nPERFORMED WELL IN THE EAST PACIFIC SO FAR THIS SEASON. \r\n  \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 14.8N 105.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.0N 106.9W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 15.3N 109.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 15.9N 113.9W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N 118.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-07-31 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 30 1998\r\n \r\nESTELLE HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A STRONG CORE OF CONVECTION\r\nNEAR ITS CENTER AND SEVERAL RAINBANDS CONTAINING CONVECTION OF\r\nMODERATE INTENSITY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5...SO NO CHANGE FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT IS MADE.  THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nHAS DECREASED A LITTLE...TO 275/8 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE KEEPS A NARROW E-W ORIENTED ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF ESTELLE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ARE CONSISTENT WITH THAT PATTERN...INDICATING A\r\nWEST TO WNW MOVEMENT.\r\n \r\nWITH THE STORM INTENSITY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND WITH\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SCHEMES LESS AGGRESSIVE THIS TIME AROUND...A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 15.1N 107.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 15.5N 109.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 111.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 16.4N 113.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-07-31 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS A\r\nLITTLE FURTHER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE UKMET AND\r\nGFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nESTELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER\r\nCOLD AND SYMMETRIC CDO HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AS THERE ARE NO\r\nAPPARENT INHIBITING FACTORS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 15.1N 108.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 15.2N 109.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.5N 111.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N 115.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N 119.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-07-31 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n\r\nESTELLE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN -80C TOPS.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65 KNOTS...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  ESTELLE IS EXPERIENCING SOME EAST/NORTHEAST VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR RESULTING IN RESTRICTED OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nCOOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES SUGGEST\r\nTHAT ESTELLE SHOULD MOVE INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE SYSTEM\r\nIS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT ESTELLE/S FORWARD MOTION HAS\r\nINCREASED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 275/13 KNOTS.\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TO PERSIST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nWITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED.  THE NOGAPS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE \r\nA LITTLE FURTHER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UKMET AND LBAR. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 15.4N 109.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.7N 111.1W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.3N 113.8W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 16.9N 116.3W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 119.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-07-31 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n...CORRECTED 24 HR LATITUDE TO 16.4N \r\nRECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE FORMATION OF A COLD CDO\r\n...WITH -80C TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH 77 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.  NO EYE FEATURE IS APPARENT AT\r\nTHIS TIME HOWEVER...DMSP SSM/I IMAGERY RECEIVED FROM THE U.S. NAVY\r\nDMSP SHOWS A DISTINCT EYE-TYPE FEATURE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSUBSIDENCE IS NOT YET SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN EYE...AND IT IS\r\nLIKELY A THIN VAIL OF CIRRUS REMAINS.  THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH\r\nTHE SLOWLY IMPROVING OUTFLOW...POINTS TO CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  ALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nHEADING.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...A\r\nAND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AVIATION AND THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL NHC91.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 15.6N 110.2W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 15.9N 112.1W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.4N 114.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.1N 117.2W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-08-01 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 1998\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC PREDICTION OF 6 HOURS AGO.  ESTELLE\r\nHAS A CORE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AT ITS CENTER WITH A LARGE AREA OF\r\nSURROUNDING CLOUDS AND RAINBANDS.  NO EYE IS APPARENT AS\r\nYET...EXCEPT IN SSM/I IMAGES.  INITIAL WIND SPEED IS AGAIN 75 KT AND\r\nTHE MOTION IS 280/12 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS RATHER CLOSELY CLUSTERED ALONG A W TO WNW TRACK AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE E-W ORIENTED HIGH TO THE NORTH TO REMAIN THE CONTROLLING FEATURE\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH\r\nWEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS TO OCCUR THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 15.8N 111.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 16.2N 113.3W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.7N 115.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N 121.3W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 127.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-08-01 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CDO HAS EXPANDED THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A HINT OF POSSIBLE\r\nWARM SPOT IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  DMSP SSM/I SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW A EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.5...77 KNOTS.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nHELD AT 75 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE SYSTEM WEAKENING BY 48 HOURS\r\nAS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KNOTS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE \r\nREMAINS RATHER CLOSELY CLUSTERED ALONG A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVIATION MODEL FORECAST FOR THE E-W\r\nORIENTED HIGH TO THE NORTH TO REMAIN THE CONTROLLING FEATURE \r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 16.0N 112.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 16.4N 114.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.1N 116.9W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 17.9N 119.6W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-08-01 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n\r\nESTELLE IS LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. T-\r\nNUMBERS ARE OSCILLATING AROUND 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. AN\r\nEYE IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON IR IMAGES AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES. WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED EXCEPT SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nWHEN ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/13. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AND SOLID DEEP LAYER\r\nMEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE. THIS PATTERN WILL SUGGEST A\r\nGENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 15.9N 114.3W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 16.0N 116.3W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 121.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N 124.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 18.5N 130.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-08-01 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n \r\nESTELLE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A CDO AND WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO WINDS ARE ADJUSTED TO 100 KNOTS.  SHEAR IS\r\nLIGHT AND OCEAN IS WARM SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY PRODUCE TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE\r\nNEAR FUTURE BUT THAT IT IS EVEN HARDER TO FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/13. THERE IS A PERSISTENT AND SOLID DEEP LAYER\r\nMEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE. THIS PATTERN WILL SUGGEST THAT\r\nESTELLE WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nGUIDANCE REFLECTS THE STRENGTH OF THAT RIDGE BY KEEPING ESTELLE ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 16.0N 115.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N 117.5W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 16.5N 120.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.5N 122.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-08-02 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 1998\r\n \r\nESTELLE RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A RING OF INTENSE\r\nCONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM IS QUITE LARGE...ALTHOUGH THE ONLY OTHER\r\nAREA WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -50C ARE IN A SPIRAL BAND\r\nTO THE SE.  WIND RADII ARE ALSO KEPT LARGE...AND SOMEWHAT BIGGER\r\nTHAN ESTIMATED FROM SSM/I DATA.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED TO 280/13 KT...BUT THE INCREASED\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT COULD BE ONLY A WOBBLE AS THE AVN FORECASTS THAT\r\nA STRONG ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF ESTELLE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.  THE NHC TRACK REPRESENTS\r\nAN EXTENSION OF THE FORECAST 6 HOURS AGO AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nRATHER TIGHTLY PACKED TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE 18Z AVN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 16.6N 117.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 16.9N 119.0W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 17.3N 121.8W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 17.6N 124.4W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 17.7N 127.1W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W    75 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-08-02 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR INTENSITY FORECAST...\r\n \r\nESTELLE IS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WITH A VERY SYMMETRIC CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...A WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI EYE AND A SECONDARY BANDING\r\nFEATURE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE BEEN STEADY AT 6.0..115 KNOTS...HE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO 6.0.  THEREFORE\r\n...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS TO 115 KNOTS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SHOWING\r\nSOME WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nHEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY\r\nCLUSTERED AROUND THIS THEME...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS\r\nIN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL MODEL NHC91.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 16.8N 118.1W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 17.2N 119.9W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 17.7N 122.6W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.2N 125.6W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.5N 128.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 19.0N 134.9W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-08-02 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED.  THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND THERE IS AN\r\nEROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS A SHORTER-TERM\r\nFLUCTUATION OR THE BEGINNING OF A LONG-TERM WEAKENING TREND.\r\nESTELLE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 27 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...SO FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A RELATIVELY SLOW DECAY.  LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD...SEA TEMPS COULD BE NEAR 24 DEG C SO ESTELLE MIGHT BE\r\nCONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11 AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS LITTLE DEVIATION FROM THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 17.3N 119.2W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 17.8N 121.1W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.8N 126.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 19.3N 128.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-08-02 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998\r\n \r\nESTELLE HAS BEEN WEAKENING TODAY.  THE EYE IS NO LONGER\r\nAPPARENT...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN EXTENT AND BECOME\r\nRATHER  DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED.  COOLER\r\nWATERS  LIE AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE SO A CONTINUED DECREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS LIKELY...AND IS FORECAST.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO\r\nREFLECT THE LATEST TREND.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ESTELLE\r\nSHOULD BE OVER 23-23 DEG C WATERS...AND BE EVEN WEAKER THAN\r\nINDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nESTELLE.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AT AROUND THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED...12 KNOTS...IS FORECAST.\r\nTHIS IS ROUGHLY THE AVERAGE OF THE TRACKS GIVEN BY OUR OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 17.8N 120.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.0N 124.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 19.7N 127.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 129.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N 134.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-08-03 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 02 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONSIDERABLY DIMINISHED AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS 12 HOURS AGO.  INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 95 KNOTS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nSAB...TAFB...AND KGWC.  COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWHICH WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ESTELLE WILL ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO CONTINUE. \r\nCURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE DIFFERENT TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 18.3N 121.7W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.9N 123.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N 126.1W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 128.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-08-03 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 03 1998\r\n \r\nESTELLE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nEYE HAS DISAPPEARED...AND CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DECREASED\r\nIN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nAN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN.  THE OUTFLOW AROUND THE SYSTEM IS\r\nUNIMPRESSIVE AND RECENT SST ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT ESTELLE IS\r\nCROSSING INTO 25/26C WATERS.  THIS ALL POINTS TO CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nAND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT THIS TREND.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCE TO 90 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE STATISTICAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME - SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12 KNOTS.  A DEEP-LAYER MEAN\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A MORE WESTERLY HEADING THEREAFTER\r\nAS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THE GFDL \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 18.8N 122.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.4N 124.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.1N 127.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.7N 129.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 21.2N 132.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W    35 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 03 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ESTELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN.  MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS 80 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.  MULTI-\r\nLAYERED CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGEST\r\nA MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD.  THE HURRICANE IS NEARING 25 DEG C\r\nSST/S...AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WATERS SHOULD COOL TO\r\nNEAR 23 DEG C.  IF ESTELLE MOVES MORE NORTHWESTWARD...IT WOULD\r\nENCOUNTER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.\r\n\r\nMOTION REMAINS 290/12.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN FROM 06Z SHOWS A\r\n500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH 25N135W...AND\r\nBUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE LATTER LOCATION FROM 48-72 HRS.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  THE MOST RECENT GFDL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TRACK SIMILAR\r\nTO THE OFFICIAL...BUT IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 19.1N 124.1W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.7N 126.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 128.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 21.0N 131.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N 133.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.0N 139.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 03 1998\r\n\r\nTHE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF ESTELLE...AND THE HURRICANE HAS NOW\r\nCROSSED THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM.  IN A DAY OR TWO ESTELLE SHOULD\r\nBE ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE SST ISOTHERMS...BUT BE OVER 23-24 DEG C\r\nWATERS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING\r\nTO A DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS ENTAILS SOME COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE\r\nNHC FORECAST.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500\r\nMB HIGH BUILDING BETWEEN 20N-30N AND 125W-145W IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD DISCOURAGE ESTELLE FROM TURNING MUCH TO THE RIGHT THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE TRACKS WHICH...SO FAR THIS SEASON...HAVE SHOWN A\r\nNORTHWARD BIAS ON AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.\r\n\r\nTHE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SSM/I ESTIMATES FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL\r\nWEATHER CENTER.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 19.3N 125.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.8N 127.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.3N 130.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.8N 133.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.3N 135.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 141.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Estelle","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-08-04 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 03 1998\r\n \r\nWEAKENING HAS CONTINUED AS ESTELLE MOVES OVER 24 TO 25 DEG C WATER. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 70 KNOTS.  ESTELLE SHOULD BE ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE 24 DEG C\r\nISOTHERM IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14...AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nCURRENT TRACK HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  NWS AVIATION\r\nMODEL MAINTAINS A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE \r\n...SO THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  CURRENT\r\nTRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 18.9N 127.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.0N 129.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.2N 132.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N 135.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 19.8N 138.4W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N 144.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 1998\r\n \r\nESTELLE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A\r\nSMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE\r\nFOR METEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 60 KNOTS...AND ESTELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AS ESTELLE MOVES OVER 24/25C WATERS. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUGGEST THAT ESTELLE IS MOVING A BIT SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CONTINUES A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE...AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AND CLIPER.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 18.4N 128.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 18.5N 130.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.6N 133.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.8N 136.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.5N 145.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 1998\r\n\r\nESTELLE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION CONSIDERABLY IN COMPARISON TO\r\nLAST NIGHT.  CURRENT ESTIMATE IS SET AT 12 KNOTS...AND AFTER JOGGING\r\nA LITTLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...IT IS MOVING WESTWARD AGAIN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO ACCOMMODATE THE SLOWER\r\nINITIAL MOTION...BUT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWS A LARGE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\n\r\nONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND...OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPART OF THE CYCLONE.  CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB AGREE AT 55 KNOTS.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nPASCH  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 18.5N 129.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N 131.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.7N 133.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 136.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 19.3N 139.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N 144.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 1998\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A FURTHER SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OF ESTELLE...\r\nTO NEAR 10 KNOTS...STILL TOWARD THE WEST.  CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED JUST A BIT MORE BUT OTHERWISE IS BASICALLY\r\nUNCHANGED.  \r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED AT THIS TIME.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBER IS 3.0 FROM BOTH THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND\r\nTHE NATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITE DATA INFORMATION SERVICE...\r\nCORRESPONDING TO A WIND SPEED OF 45 KNOTS.  EVEN THOUGH IT HAS A\r\nLARGE...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO SPIN\r\nDOWN...ESTELLE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO AND DISSIPATING AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 18.5N 130.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.5N 132.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.7N 134.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 136.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N 139.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS NON-\r\nEXISTENT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  ESTELLE WAS ONCE A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nHURRICANE...AND IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO\r\nSPIN DOWN.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER\r\n24 TO 25 DEG C WATER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE\r\nIN RESPONSE TO A PERSISTENT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHIS TRACK BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND\r\nBETWEEN CLIPER AND THE SHALLOW BAM.  MOST OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS ARE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF OUR TRACK.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 18.7N 131.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 18.8N 132.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N 134.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.1N 137.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N 139.7W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N 145.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 05 1998\r\n \r\nESTELLE CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS VOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 AND 2.5.  SINCE\r\nESTELLE WAS A STRONG SYSTEM THERE ARE PROBABLY A FEW REMAINING AREAS\r\nWITH 35 KNOTS.  ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TODAY AND MAY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.\r\nSHIFOR..SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ALSO WEAKEN ESTELLE VERY FAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  SINCE ESTELLE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK OVER COOL WATERS...STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 19.0N 132.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.1N 133.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.3N 136.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 05 1998\r\n\r\nESTELLE CONTINUES AS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAYERED\r\nCLOUDS...AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW DOWN TO 30 KNOTS...SO THE CYCLONE\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A CONTINUED SPINDOWN IS\r\nEXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...OR SOONER.\r\n\r\nESTELLE TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND ITS MOTION IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 285/11.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE...IN ACCORD WITH STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 19.5N 133.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.9N 135.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 20.5N 138.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N 140.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 05 1998\r\n\r\nSOME SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS RETURNED...IN A FEW THIN BANDS AROUND\r\nESTELLE...BUT THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THIS IS LIKELY\r\nONLY A TRANSIENT EVENT.  CURRENT WINDS ARE HELD AT 30 KNOTS WITH\r\nWEAKENING FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ESTELLE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE DISSIPATING IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY PACKAGE AND THE\r\nFORECAST IS ALSO SIMILAR.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE NAVY OPERATIONAL\r\nGLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC PREDICTION SYSTEM...NOGAPS...MODEL TRACK AND\r\nCLIMATOLOGY.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 19.7N 135.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 20.2N 137.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.8N 139.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.0N 142.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 144.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 05 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION.  A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nPERSISTED FOR AROUND 6 HOURS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL\r\nWEATHER CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER 24 C DEG WATER AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  THE CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE EASTERLIES...AND THE CURRENT TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NAVY NOGAPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 19.9N 136.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.2N 138.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 20.6N 141.4W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.9N 143.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.0N 146.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 21.0N 151.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 06 1998\r\n\r\nESTELLE CONSIST OF A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A FEW\r\nSPOTS OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n30 KNOTS AND SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 24 C DEG\r\nWATER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  THE CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE EASTERLIES...AND ESTELLE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 20.0N 138.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 20.3N 140.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.5N 142.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 144.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N 147.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N 152.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 06 1998\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND MAY IN FACT BE CLOSE TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN.  ESTELLE HAD BEEN PRODUCING A LIMITED\r\nAMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT RECENTLY THIS ACTIVITY HAS WANED. \r\nALTHOUGH SST DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...AS\r\nESTELLE APPROACHES 150W VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE DUE TO\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. \r\nTHUS...ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK AS BEFORE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE UNITED KINGDOM MET. OFFICE MODEL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nDOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH ESTELLE.\r\n\r\nAS ESTELLE WILL CROSS 140W LONGITUDE IN A FEW HOURS...FUTURE\r\nADVISORIES ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 20.5N 139.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 20.7N 141.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N 144.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.3N 147.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N 149.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 22.0N 154.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 06 1998\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS\r\nCONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES REVEALS A LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION...ALBEIT ONE THAT\r\nIS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST\r\nAXIS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...ABOUT 100 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND A SHIP ABOUT 150 N MI SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...CONFIRM THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ON THE SURFACE.  THUS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nAXIS...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 325/11.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS A BLEND MAINLY OF THE GFDL...NHC91\r\nAND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL LBAR...TAKES SEVEN-E TOWARD COOLER WATERS\r\nFAIRLY SOON SO NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY.  HOWEVER THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED LATER IF THE SYSTEM\r\nCHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 17.9N 112.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.2N 113.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N 114.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 06 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RECENTLY FORMED TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SEVEN-E LOOKS RAGGED...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH TAFB AND\r\nAFGWC ESTIMATES.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED...\r\nAND ON LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES APPEARED ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AXIS.  THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 28\r\nTO 29 DEG C WATER...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nQUADRANTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATER...AND OUR INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN INDICATED\r\nBY SHIFOR AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL\r\nDISSIPATES THE TD WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/09.  NWS AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS A\r\nMID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....BUT THIS IS WELL\r\nREMOVED FROM OUR TROPICAL SYSTEM AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nWEAKNESS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TD.  MOST TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHILE CLIPER IS MORE WESTWARD AND\r\nTHE NAVY NOGAPS IS MORE NORTHWARD.  FOR NOW...OUR TRACK ASSUMES THE\r\nCURRENT STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 18.3N 112.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N 112.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.7N 113.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.8N 115.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 22.6N 116.2W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 1998\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND APPEARS TO BE\r\nELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AXIS. THIS IS\r\nCONFIRMED BY A FEW SHIP REPORTS WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY FROM THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AND T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 1.5 AND 2.0...LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS\r\nENOUGH OF A SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BUT\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN\r\nTHIS BASIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EFFECTS OF COOL WATERS.  SO...I\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS AND WINDS INCREASE\r\nSOME.  THIS STRENGTHENING MUST OCCUR SOON BECAUSE AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER 25 DEGREE WATER AND\r\nRAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 325/09. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN MORE TO WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nIS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 19.1N 112.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 20.2N 113.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 1998\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTING KEEPING THE\r\nSYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER WITH IR IMAGERY...BUT THERE\r\nIS SOME INDICATION THAT IT IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER\r\nESTIMATES...GIVING A MOTION JUST WEST OF DUE NORTHWARD.  FIRST\r\nVISIBLE PICTURES ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE.  SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO\r\nTRACK WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AVN SPLITS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE INITIALIZED TO THE\r\nNW...LEAVING HIGH CENTERS WNW AND NE BY 48 HOURS.  THAT MODEL\r\nFORECASTS A NW MOTION FOR THE DEPRESSION...BETWEEN THE TWO HIGHS AND\r\nTHE DEPENDENT TRACK MODELS GENERALLY DO AS WELL.  THE NOGAPS...ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD TRACK.  GIVEN THAT\r\nTHIS APPEARS TO BE THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nIF THE NORTHWARD MOTION IS CORRECT AND PERSISTS...AND THERE IS ANY\r\nINDICATION OF FUTURE STRENGTHENING...THEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR\r\nWARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 20.1N 111.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 21.1N 112.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N 112.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.9N 113.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 25.3N 114.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N 117.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 360/8 KT.  THE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION OR PARTIAL BANDS...ONE\r\nTO THE NORTH AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  TAFB AND SAB NOW\r\nHAVE T-NUMBERS OF 2.0...WHICH GIVES US 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AT\r\n18Z...SOCORRO ISLAND...ABOUT 120 NMI SSE OF THE CENTER...REPORTED\r\nWINDS SOUTH AT 25 KNOTS...WITH 1008.7 MB FOLLOWING A 3 HR PRESSURE\r\nRISE OF 3.1 MB.  ALSO AT 18Z...WINDS OF 20 KT AND 33 KT WERE\r\nREPORTED BY TWO SHIPS NOT FAR FROM EACH OTHER ABOUT 130 NMI TO THE\r\nNE OF THE CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF A CONVECTIVE BAND.\r\n \r\nTHE 12Z AVN IS SIMILAR TO THE 06Z RUN...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nHEIGHT PATTERN TO THE NW AND A FORECAST TRACK IN THAT DIRECTION. \r\nTHE AVN BASED GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY NW TRACKS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nAGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF ALL THAT GUIDANCE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z\r\nNOGAPS.  OUR TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO...AND IS NOW FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO FOR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\n \r\nRAINFALL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD INDUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 21.0N 111.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 22.2N 111.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 23.4N 112.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.5N 112.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 25.6N 113.3W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nGOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  TAFB NOTES A FOUR\r\nTENTHS BANDING FEATURE ON THE BD CURVE AND HAS A T NUMBER OF 2.5. \r\nSAB IS STILL GIVING A T NUMBER OF 2.0  AT 2100 AND OOOO UTC SEVERAL\r\nSHIPS PASSING ABOUT 100 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED\r\n25 TO 33 KNOTS OF WIND.  BASED ON THIS WE ARE UPGRADING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM FRANK WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KNOTS.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND THAN DECREASE AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFRANK IS MOVING ABOUT 360/07.  THIS INITIAL MOTION AND OUR TRACK\r\nFORECAST WILL BRING THE STORM APPROXIMATELY PARALLEL TO THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA AND WOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFFSHORE. \r\nHOWEVER...A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE NORTH COULD BRING THE SYSTEM\r\nINLAND OVER BAJA.  THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN\r\nEFFECT AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY BE CHANGED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nMOST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER THE NAVY NOGAPS AND LBAR MODEL\r\nTRACKS DO PARALLEL THE COASTLINE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE NAVY NOGAPS TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nRAINFALL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD INDUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 21.6N 112.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N 112.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 23.7N 113.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N 113.9W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 26.2N 114.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 28.3N 116.6W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE...SURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT\r\nFRANK IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  FRANK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS \r\nMAY REACH A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THEREFORE\r\n... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO\r\nPUNTA ABREOJOS.  SINCE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE PARALLEL TO\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED\r\nNORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA.  \r\n\r\nA WEAKNESS OF THE 500 MB HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANK IS CAUSING\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD. BECAUSE THE MODELS BUILD THE\r\nRIDGE ONCE AGAIN IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nIS FORECAST.  THIS NORTHWEST TRACK IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP AND CIRCULAR CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.5 FROM\r\nBOTH TSAF AND SAB.  WINDS ARE KEPT AT 35 KNOTS BUT FRANK COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE REACHING COOL WATERS IN 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nRAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD INDUCE FLASH FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 23.1N 112.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 24.7N 112.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 26.0N 113.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/10.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO EXCEPT FOR LBAR AND THE\r\nDEEP BAM WHICH MOVE THE STORM NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD.  THE 00Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL AND MRF INITIALIZED A RATHER LARGE 500 MB LOW AROUND\r\nTHE STORM AND MOVES THIS SYSTEM MOSTLY WESTWARD WHILE REBUILDING A\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS INITIALIZATION MAY NOT BE VERY ACCURATE. \r\nIN ANY CASE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DECELERATION.  \r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP FRANK AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH...\r\n35 KNOTS.  THERE ARE COLD SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES\r\nOF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IT IS\r\nRECOMMENDED THAT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW BE ISSUED FROM PUNTA\r\nTOSCA TO PUNTA EUGENIA.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS AN OUTER RAINBAND LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nOTHERWISE MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS CONFINED TO A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST NEAR THE STORM CENTER AND IS OFFSHORE AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 23.8N 112.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 26.5N 114.5W    34 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 27.5N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 29.5N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 08 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 350/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED MUCH.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND WEST...EXCEPT THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM WHICH SHOW A\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION.  AND AGAIN THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHE STORM EMBEDDED IN A LARGE 500-MB LOW WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY THE\r\nCASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LEANING A\r\nLITTLE RIGHT OF CONCENSUS...AND SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND DECELLERATION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWITH A SMALL CDO...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AS COLDER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n\r\nTHE 200 MB WIND PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM\r\nFRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. \r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 25.0N 113.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 26.4N 113.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 27.8N 114.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 28.8N 116.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 29.5N 118.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-08-09 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 08 1998\r\n \r\nFRANK APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION TO ABOUT 13 KNOTS\r\nSO THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/13.  THIS SHOULD BRING THE STORM INLAND\r\nOVER BAJA IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IGNORES\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...AS FRANK HAS BEEN DOING... AND MOVES THE SYSTEM\r\nRIGHT UP THE BAJA GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT AND DISSIPATING IT IN 36\r\nHOURS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST..\r\n \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  WEAKENING WILL BEGIN AT\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE 200 MB WIND PATTERN APPEARS FAVORABLE TO ADVECT MOISTURE FROM\r\nFRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 26.2N 113.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 28.1N 114.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 30.5N 114.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 33.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-08-09 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 09 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nFRANK IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH BAJA...AND FRANK IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE DISSIPATING IN 24-36 HOURS ALTHOUGH IT COULD DO SO EVEN SOONER\r\nTHAN THAT.\r\n\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NNW...340/10.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY\r\nMAINTAINS THIS MOTION FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ON THIS COURSE...THE\r\nREMNANTS OF FRANK WOULD BE NEAR THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST IN 36\r\nHOURS OR SO.  THIS IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF OUR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE\r\nTRACKS...WHICH HAVE BEEN OF LITTLE USE FOR FRANK.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF BAJA TODAY...AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER PARTS OF ADJACENT\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ADVECT\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 26.9N 113.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 28.4N 114.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 30.5N 114.7W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 32.5N 115.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 09 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT MUCH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nDEFINED...AND IN FACT...THE SATELLITE FIXES HAVE JUMPED ABOUT 100\r\nMILES TO THE WEST BETWEEN 0900Z AND 1200Z.  THEREFORE...THE CENTER\r\nIS RELOCATED ON THIS ADVISORY AND THE TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE\r\nLEFT.  LUCKILY...THE CENTER IS NOT THAT IMPORTANT SINCE FRANK IS A\r\nWEAK SYSTEM.  RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.\r\n \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS.  MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nALREADY OVER COOL WATER...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\nALTHOUGH ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE DISCONTINUED EARLIER\r\n...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED AS A DEPRESSION FOR A\r\nWHILE LONGER.  WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CEASE\r\nAND FRAN WILL BE CARRIED AS A LOW ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.  IT IS\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFDL DISSIPATES FRANK WITHIN ABOUT 18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE NIGHTTIME CENTER FIXES...BUT\r\nBEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/11.  IT LOOKS LIKE FRANK IS\r\nFINALLY DOING WHAT MOST OF THE MODELS PREDICTED...TURNING AWAY FROM\r\nLAND.  AS STATED EARLIER...THE CURRENT TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-\r\nLEVEL BAM GUIDANCE.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL FLOW...THE ACTUAL TRACK COULD BE EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF BAJA AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH FRANK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 27.4N 115.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.6N 117.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 09 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER IS WELL\r\nDEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND REMAINS PRETTY MUCH ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A WEAK SYSTEM AND IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS NOT THAT IMPORTANT.  RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY\r\nCONCERN.\r\n \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 25 KNOTS.  MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nALREADY OVER COOL WATER...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CARRIED AS A DEPRESSION FOR A\r\nWHILE LONGER.  ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CEASE SOMETIME TONIGHT\r\nAND FRANK WILL BE CARRIED AS A WEAK LOW ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST. \r\nTHE NAVY NOGAPS LOOSES THE CIRCULATION COMPLETELY WITHIN 36 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE GFDL DISSIPATES IT ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10.   ALL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS\r\nSHOW EITHER A NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...WITH A DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED.  OUR TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MID-\r\nLEVEL BAM GUIDANCE.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL FLOW...THE ACTUAL TRACK COULD BE EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nHEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL\r\nALSO CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 28.3N 116.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 29.3N 117.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 30.3N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 09 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH IS FILLED WITH STRATIFIED CLOUDS.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 25 KNOTS.  THE CIRCULATION REMAINS\r\nOVER COOL WATER AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST DISCUSSION ON FRANK UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FRANK WILL\r\nBE CARRIED AS A WEAK LOW IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.   ALL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS\r\nSHOW EITHER A NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. \r\n \r\nHEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL\r\nALSO CONTINUE ADVECTING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MAX WIND\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 28.8N 117.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998\r\n \r\nAN AREA OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DISTURBANCE FAR TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SOME THIN\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE NOTED AS WELL...MAINLY TO THE W-WNW OF THE\r\nCENTER.  TAFB AND SAB GIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0+ AND\r\n2.5...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION EIGHT-E WITH 30 KT WINDS.  POSITION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN\r\nJUMPING AROUND A BIT AND SOME ADJUSTMENT TO INITIAL MOTION...300/9\r\nKT...AND TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE PICTURES BECOME\r\nAVAILABLE LATER.  \r\n\r\nTHE 00Z AVN SHOWS A LARGE AND STRONG ANTICYCLONE PERSISTING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TD THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WNW\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AS INDICATED BY THE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THOSE TRACKS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE BAMM\r\nAND CLIPER.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INTENSITY OF SYSTEM POTENTIALLY GOVERNED BY SEVERAL FACTORS. \r\nCURRENTLY...THE TD SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...WITH BAM GUIDANCE IMPLYING STRONG NW SHEAR BY THE END OF THE\r\n3-DAY PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION CENTERED JUST WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  AVN FORECASTS\r\nINDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE COULD EVENTUALLY INTERACT WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT CLOSE TO THE RATE\r\nINDICATED BY SHIFOR.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 11.8N 109.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 12.5N 111.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 13.3N 112.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 14.1N 114.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 14.9N 115.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 118.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING AND IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  A BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THIS\r\nTIME.  HOWEVER...LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED\r\nIN THE NW QUADRANT...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 10 DEG NORTH OF\r\nTD 8-E...AND GOOD ELSEWHERE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT\r\n30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO ATTAIN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS LATER TODAY.  A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND IS FORECAST\r\n...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9 KNOTS.  THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nMAINTAINS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH MOST OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE 12Z\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODEL SUITE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST HEADING...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.\r\nTHIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 12.3N 110.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.8N 111.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.7N 113.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 14.5N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT TD EIGHT-E HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY.  THE SYSTEM HAS IMPRESSIVE BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND THE CENTER IS UNDER AN EXPANDING CDO.  THUS... TD\r\nEIGHT-E IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WITH THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 40 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE REMAINS HINDERED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NORTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...IN LINE WITH DVORAK\r\nDEVELOPMENT CURVES.\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT GEORGETTE NOW HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nNORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/\r\n7 KNOTS.  PREDICTING THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT\r\nCOMPLICATED.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF GEORGETTE MAY BE WEAKENED\r\nBY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A NORTHWEST\r\nTO NORTH MOVEMENT BUT THIS IS PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO A SPURIOUS\r\nVORTEX INITIALIZED ABOUT 7 DEG WEST OF GEORGETTE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST MOTION BY\r\n72 HOURS.  THIS IS MIDWAY BETWEEN BAM DEEP AND LBAR...AND IS ON\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 12.6N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 13.3N 112.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.2N 113.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.3N 115.2W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 117.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 121.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOW THAT GEORGETTE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.  T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0/3.0/2.5 FROM\r\nTAFB/GLOBAL/SAB RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS. \r\nTHE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO BE HINDERED BY\r\nTHE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AS SEEN IN THE\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nTO HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS BUT LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT...IN LINE WITH\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE IS INTERACTING WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 5 KNOTS AND IS\r\nCONTINUING TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT IN DIRECTION\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/05.  THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD.  LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE\r\nBAMD...GFDL...NAVY NOGAPS AND P91 MODELS SUGGEST A SLOW FORWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AND THEN AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION AND A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED TRACKS AND IS\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 12.6N 111.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.0N 111.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.5N 112.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 16.7N 113.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.2N 115.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 12 1998\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK HAS EDGED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...315/7 KT...\r\nPRESUMABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE INTERACTION BETWEEN GEORGETTE AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW CENTERED ABOUT 500 NM TO THE NORTH.  GEORGETTE\r\nHAS A SMALL...BUT GROWING...SPOT OF DEEP CONVECTION AT THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A STRONG BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS\r\nINTO THE CENTER FROM THE SW-S-E-N.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSUPPORT INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 50 KT.  A SHIP ABOUT 160 NM NE\r\nOF THE CENTER REPORTED 25 KT WINDS AND 15 FT SEAS AT 0600 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST HAD THE TRACK OF GEORGETTE WRAPPING AROUND\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH THE AVN FORECASTS WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD.  THE 00Z GFDL AND AVN HAVE SIMILAR\r\nSOLUTIONS TO THAT SEQUENCE OF EVENTS...SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND THEN AN ACCELERATION BACK TOWARD THE NW.  IT IS NOT\r\nCLEAR...HOWEVER...WHETHER THEY DO SO BECAUSE OF THE UPPER LOW OR...\r\nINSTEAD...BECAUSE OF A RESIDUAL MODEL VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE AVN\r\nNEAR 12N 119W.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK OF\r\n6 HOURS AGO AND ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BETWEEN GFDL AND\r\nP91E IN BOTH POSITION AND SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIFOR/S. \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 13.4N 111.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N 112.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 113.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 18.1N 114.7W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 20.3N 116.6W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 12 1998\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH A WELL-\r\nDEFINED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM.  THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE NOW 4.0...65 KNOTS...\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  THIS MAKES\r\nGEORGETTE THE 4TH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGH \r\n24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM ENCOUNTERS 23/24C WATERS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME (SHIPS). \r\n\r\nA SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 180NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SSE\r\nWIND OF 25 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 15 FT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM-FORCE WIND AND 12-FOOT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT GEORGETTE/S FORWARD\r\nMOTION HAS INCREASED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/\r\n10 KNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 460NM NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...AS FORECAST BY THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL.  THIS SHOULD KEEP GEORGETTE ON A MORE NW TRACK HEADING.  \r\nMOST OF THE 12Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAM DEEP AND NHC91.  THIS\r\nREPRESENTS A SLIGHT LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 14.2N 112.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.3N 114.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 115.7W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 119.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 12 1998\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF A BANDING-TYPE HURRICANE.  THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS A LARGE ENVELOPE AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nSHIP REPORTS.  A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 205 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\n...ID KGTI...REPORTED AN E WIND OF 20 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 16 FT. \r\nBASED ON THIS DATA THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND AND 12-FOOT SEA\r\nRADII HAS BEEN MODIFIED.  \r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE IN AGREEMENT...\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND NO OBVIOUS FACTORS TO\r\nHINDER DEVELOPMENT...GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD\r\nBEGIN AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...NEAR \r\n22 DEG C BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE HAS CONTINUED ON A NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE DAY.  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11 KNOTS.  THE MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW POSITIONED ABOUT 450 NMI NORTH OF GEORGETTE CONTINUES \r\nTO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST.  THIS SYSTEM \r\nIS HAVING LITTLE IMPACT ON THE HURRICANE...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\n...AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  THE 18Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nMORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK MOTION.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH BAM DEEP AND NHC91.  \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 15.1N 113.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.1N 115.1W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.6N 117.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 18.9N 118.8W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 20.5N 121.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N 125.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 12 1998\r\n\r\nGEORGETTE CONTINUES AS A BANDING TYPE HURRICANE WITH AN EXCELLENT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS NOT OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES YET\r\nBUT T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE.  THE WINDS ARE THEN ADJUSTED TO 75 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.   MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.\r\nTHEREFORE...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  TRACK MODELS...INCLUDING THE LATEST GFDL SUGGEST A GRADUAL\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nBECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 15.5N 115.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 116.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 120.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N 122.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 13 1998\r\n \r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION INCREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT NOT\r\nENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FROM 75 KT.  THE\r\nSYSTEM RETAINS A SMALL CDO THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE PRINCIPAL\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND...APPEARS IN IR IMAGERY IN THE SHAPE OF THE NUMBER\r\n6.  A SEPARATE SHORTER BAND IS NOTED TO THE SE OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nHEADING IS 295 DEGREES...AT 12 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AVN MAINTAINS A TWO-CELLED ANTICYCLONE FROM THE NORTH\r\nTHROUGH NORTHWEST OF GEORGETTE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IMPLIES A\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE WNW.  THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM\r\n6 HOURS AGO AND ALONG THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT\r\nWITHOUT AS MUCH ACCELERATION AS SHOWN BY THE BAM OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nIF THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY CORRECT...THEN THERE IS ANOTHER\r\n36 HOURS OR SO AVAILABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 15.9N 116.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.7N 117.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.8N 120.3W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 123.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 20.1N 125.9W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.0N 131.0W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 13 1998\r\n\r\nGEORGETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC...DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT\r\nINCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BEAR THIS OUT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nREMAINING STEADY AT 4.5...75 KNOTS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 75 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS AS IT APPROACHES COOLER WATERS. \r\n\r\nGEORGETTE SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION WITH THREE NOTABLE OUTLIERS...NOGAPS...GFDL AND THE\r\nAVIATION.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK POSSIBLE\r\nDUE TO THE SPURIOUS VORTEX LOCATED ABOUT 5 DEG SOUTHWEST OF\r\nGEORGETTE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 16.5N 116.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.3N 118.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.3N 120.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 19.2N 123.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 21.5N 131.5W    40 KTS\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 13 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS NOW BECOME EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING\r\nTHAT GEORGETTE HAS STRENGTHEN.  DMSP 85 GHZ SATELLITE DATA \r\nSUGGESTED AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE EARLIER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0... RESPECTIVELY WHILE OBJECTIVE-\r\nBASED DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 4.7.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS PUSHED UPWARDS TO 85 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED WITH GEORGETTE\r\nWEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS 23/24 DEG C WATERS.\r\n \r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION HAS CONTINUED TODAY...AND THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nGEORGETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nCOURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND THIS HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 17.1N 117.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.8N 119.2W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.8N 121.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.7N 123.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 126.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 13 1998\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE HAS A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES ON\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  CI OBJECTIVE AND RAW NUMBERS ARE\r\nOSCILLATING AROUND 5.4 AND 6.0 RESPECTIVELY... SUGGESTING THAT WINDS\r\nARE PROBABLY 100 KNOTS.  SINCE THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND A PORTION OF THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS ALREADY THERE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE...SO A\r\nCONTINUED WET-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST IS POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS AND GEORGETTE WEAKENS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.  THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nALSO SHOWS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BUT IN GENERAL THE MODELS\r\nAPPEAR TO BE EITHER TOO FAST OR TOO SLOW.  THE BEST OPTION IS THE\r\nGFDL WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 18.0N 118.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.6N 120.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 19.7N 122.2W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N 127.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.5N 132.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS QUITE LARGE...30-35 NMI IN DIAMETER AND IS SURROUNDED BY\r\nA SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION.  INTERESTINGLY...THERE IS ALMOST NO\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.  THE WIND SPEED IS AGAIN ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 100 KT AS IMPLIED BY THE 5.5 TAFB AND SAB T-NUMBERS. GEORGETTE\r\nTOOK A JOG TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  IT HAS COME BACK A LITTLE BUT A SMOOTHED VERSION OF ITS\r\nMOTION SINCE LAST EVENING GIVES A HEADING OF ABOUT 315 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKT.  THE WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII NW OF CENTER HAVE BEEN EXPANDED\r\nBASED ON THE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP KGTI AT 03Z AND 06Z.\r\n \r\nIT IS HARD TO RECONCILE THE RECENT MOTION WITH FEATURES ANALYZED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY OR SHOWN IN THE 00Z AVN INITIALIZATION.  THERE\r\nDOES APPEAR TO BE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...\r\nPERHAPS CLOSED...TO THE NNW OF THE HURRICANE.  IT MIGHT BE RELATED\r\nTO THE VORTEX NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS AND THE CIRCULATION ON\r\nTHE SE SIDE OF IT COULD BE HELPING TO ACCELERATE GEORGETTE ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD HEADING.  THIS MIGHT BE TEMPORARY.  OTHERWISE...THE AVN\r\nLARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE TRACK\r\nMODELS COVER THE HEADINGS FROM W TO NW AND HAVE SUBSTANTIAL\r\nDIFFERENCES IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW BEND BACK\r\nTOWARD WNW AND GRADUAL DECELERATION.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 25C SST ISOTHERM TOWARD\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE\r\nSHORTLY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 19.2N 119.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 20.4N 121.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 21.6N 122.9W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 22.7N 124.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 23.7N 127.1W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N 131.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS SUGGESTS THAT GEORGETTE/S\r\nINTENSITY HAS PEAKED.  ALTHOUGH THE 30 NMI EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED\r\nSURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  THE CONVECTION WEST/SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER HAS ALSO ERODED.  LATEST SST ANALYSIS INDICATE THAT\r\nGEOGRETTE IS NOW OVER 25 DEG C WATERS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE HELD AT 100 KNOTS...PER DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND NOTED IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE CONTINUES ON A NORTHWEST HEADING WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE\r\nIN SPEED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/15 KNOTS.  THE MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF\r\nGEORGETTE MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NORTHWESTERLY COURSE THE\r\nLAST 18 HOURS OR SO.  THE AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH\r\nWILL DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  BAM DEEP..LBAR...THE GFDL AND THE\r\nUKMET TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE A NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARDS\r\nTHE NORTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...ALL AT VARIOUS SPEEDS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS WITH A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWEST/WEST HEADING THEREAFTER AS THE\r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS AND LOWER LEVEL STEERING TAKES OVER.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 20.4N 120.7W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 21.9N 122.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 23.6N 124.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 24.7N 127.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N 134.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 BUT THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nNUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 OR NEAR 100 KNOTS.  THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nDECREASED TO 95 KNOTS AT 21Z BASED ON A WEAKENING TREND AND COLD\r\nSSTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GEORGETTE TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/15.  SOME OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE DEEP BAM...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL\r\nP91E...AND THE LBAR...SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH INTO A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER GEORGETTES\r\nEXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE\r\nLOWER LEVEL FLOW AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nMORE WESTWARD MOTION ALONG WITH SOME DECELERATION...SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nA SHIP REPORT OF 20 KNOTS AT A POSITION ABOUT 80 NMI NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER AT 18Z SUGGESTS THAT THE 34-KNOT WIND SPEED RADIUS OF 175\r\nNMI IS TOO LARGE.  HOWEVER THE SAME SHIP HAD RATHER HIGH SEAS AND\r\nCOULD BE BETWEEN CONVECTIVE BANDS.  SO THE RADIUS IS LEFT AT 175\r\nMILES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT UNTIL THERE IS ADDITIONAL\r\nCONFIRMATION OF A SMALLER RADIUS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 21.4N 121.8W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 22.8N 124.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 24.6N 125.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 25.5N 128.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 26.2N 130.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 26.7N 135.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 1998\r\n\r\nGEORGETTE IS MOVING OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS...ALREADY OVER 23\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS.  THEREFORE...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  THE EYE\r\nIS DISAPPEARING AND CONVECTION IS DECREASING QUICKLY. HOWEVER... NO\r\nSURPRISE IF CONVECTION TEMPORARILY REDEVELOPS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS.  T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT 85 TO 90 KNOTS SINCE DVORAK RULES\r\nDO NOT PERMIT SUCH A FAST WEAKENING.  GEORGETTE IS LIKELY TO BE A\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND PROBABLY WILL BE DECLARED\r\nDISSIPATED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 315/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS\r\nFORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  TRACK MODELS ARE DIVERGENT BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH\r\nMOTIONS EITHER SLOW OR FAST AND TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST...NORTH AND\r\nWEST. THE BEST OPTION IS TO USE BAM-SHALLOW WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL STEERING AND ITS PROBABLY APPROPRIATE FOR A RAPID\r\nWEAKENING SYSTEM. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 22.4N 122.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 23.7N 124.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.0N 126.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N 136.0W    DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND IT IS BECOMING\r\nDIFFICULT TO DISCERN AN EYE ON IR IMAGERY.  WHILE DVORAK CI NUMBERS\r\nAT 06 UTC WERE 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nQUICKLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE WEEKEND.  THE HURRICANE\r\nCONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 500 NM\r\nNW WEST OF GEORGETTE AND THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A CONTINUATION OF\r\nTHE CURRENT HEADING FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKENED AND MORE LIKELY STEERED BY LOWER\r\nLEVEL FEATURES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS BAMM THROUGH ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS WITH A TRANSITION TOWARDS BAMS FROM 36-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 23.2N 123.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 24.4N 125.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N 127.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 27.5N 129.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 28.5N 131.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 29.5N 135.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SSTS AND\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.  GALE\r\nWIND RADII ANALYSIS FROM KGWC USING DMSP IMAGERY IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nDECREASING THE WIND SPEED RADII FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THE\r\nWEAKENING SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 23.9N 124.3W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.2N 125.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N 127.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.5N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 130.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 29.8N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR WHERE\r\nEXTRAPOLATION AND CONTINUITY WOULD PLACE THE CENTER AT 18Z.  HOWEVER\r\nA HOLE IN THE CLOUDS HAS RECENTLY APPEARED TO THE SOUTH.  THIS COULD\r\nBE THE CENTER...NOT AN EYE...OR IT COULD BE A SUCKER HOLE.  A\r\nCOMPROMISE INITIAL POSITION IS SELECTED WHICH GIVES AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 305/10.  THIS RESULTS IN A CONTINUATION OF THE GRADUAL\r\nSLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS NOW SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD\r\nTRACK EXCEPT THE LBAR BAROTROPIC MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH THE SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSHOW WEAKENING.  THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS GEORGETTE\r\nMOVES OVER COLDER WATER.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 24.3N 125.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 25.1N 126.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 26.1N 128.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 27.8N 131.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 28.5N 135.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 1998\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND THERE ARE\r\nONLY A FEW PATCHES OF WEAKENING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER AT THIS TIME. LATEST ERS2 ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT WINDS ARE\r\nAROUND 45 KNOTS WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING.  THEREFORE\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS.  SINCE GEORGETTE\r\nIS OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nWITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON\r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS BEST\r\nDEPICTED BY BAM-SHALLOW.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 24.6N 125.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 25.4N 127.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 26.5N 129.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 27.0N 131.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 1998\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH GEORGETTE.  ALTHOUGH SOME LAYERS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS\r\nLINGER OVER THE AREA...THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY A LOW\r\nCLOUD SWIRL.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 22 DEG C...A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS FORECAST.  GEORGETTE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO BUT COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A LOW SOONER THAN THAT...AND\r\nCARRIED IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER HIGH SEAS FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...TO NEAR 8\r\nKNOTS.  A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...ROUGHLY\r\nALONG THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SHALLOW LAYER BETA AND ADVECTION\r\nMODEL...  BAMS...BUT NOT AS FAST AS SHOWN BY THAT GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nPASCH \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 24.6N 126.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 25.1N 127.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N 131.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 26.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME RATHER UNCERTAIN ON INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...ALL RECENT FIXES INDICATE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL 00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS THAT THERE IS NOT\r\nMUCH OF A RIDGE LEFT TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD DRIFT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nAN ABSENCE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION CONFIRMS THE CONTINUATI0N OF THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS OVER COLD WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 24.7N 126.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N 127.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 25.3N 128.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 25.5N 129.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 25.7N 130.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS DOWNGRADED \r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/04 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS \r\nOF MOTION.  WITH VERY WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH...THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD DRIFT UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHIPS WITH 10 FOOT SEAS WITHIN ABOUT 200 NMI\r\nOF THE CENTER AND A RADIUS OF 150 NMI IS ESTIMATED FOR 12 FOOT SEAS\r\nFOR A FEW MORE HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 24.9N 126.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.3N 127.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 25.7N 128.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 25.9N 129.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 26.1N 130.0W    DISSIPATED\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z                 DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-08-17 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 1998\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR THE \r\nLAST 18 HOURS OR SO.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF GEORGETTE CONSISTS OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.  \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KNOTS.  THE CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINS OVER COOL WATER...ABOUT 21 DEG C...AND CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED WITH DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS...IS \r\n300/03 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC STEERING UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON GEORGETTE.  THE REMNANTS \r\nOF GEORGETTE WILL BE CARRIED AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH\r\n(TAFB) AT TPC UNDER WMO HEADER FZPN03...AND AFOS HEADER MIAHSFEP2.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 25.1N 126.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 25.4N 127.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 25.7N 128.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 26.0N 129.5W.............DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS STRENGTHENED.  A CENTRAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A\r\nSTRONG RAIN BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST ARE APPARENT ON SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5...INDICATING\r\n55 KT WINDS.  THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD ABOUT 280/10 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z AVN MAINTAINS A MID-LEVEL E-W RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WOULD\r\nIMPLY A WNW MOTION AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.  THE RIDGE\r\nDOES NOT SHOW UP PROMINENTLY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...AND\r\nTHE GFDL SHOWS A NW OR NNW HEADING FOR MOST OF THE 3-DAY PERIOD.  IN\r\nCONSIDERATION OF THAT FORECAST...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nHOWARD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 11.0N 101.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 11.4N 102.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 11.9N 104.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 12.5N 106.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 13.5N 108.4W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 111.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nTHIS MOTI0N CONTINUING FOR 72 HOURS...EXCEPT THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE BEHAVIOR OF THE GFDL MAY BE\r\nDUE TO A VORTEX IN THE AVIATION MODEL NEAR 13N 122W...BUT THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AS A COURSE OF\r\nLEAST REGRET.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 11.3N 102.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 12.2N 105.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 13.1N 107.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 108.7W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR 72 HOURS...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFDL....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nRIGHT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT HOWARD HAS INCREASED TO MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AND A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH SOME LEVELING OFF IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 11.9N 102.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 12.7N 103.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.6N 105.3W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.8N 107.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 21 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING FOR 72 HOURS...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFDL....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT HOWARD HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH TO 80 KNOTS AND INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH SOME LEVELING OFF IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 12.5N 103.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.3N 105.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.7N 108.9W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.2N 110.6W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND INDICATES STRENGTHENING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM \r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG\r\nTHE LINES OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT\r\nLEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DUE\r\nTO SEVERAL 06Z SHIP REPORTS. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 13.1N 104.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.2N 108.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.4N 110.4W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL 00Z RUN SHOWS SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE SO THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED \r\nAND PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SLIGHT DECELERATION AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS\r\nAND INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS COULD\r\nSTART A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 13.8N 106.2W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.7N 107.6W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N 109.7W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.1N 111.9W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.3N 113.7W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8  COR\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n\r\n...COR...INITIAL POSITION AT 22/2100Z 14.3N 107.3W\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/12.  AS EARLIER...THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW A CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODELS AND IS ADJUSTED JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE EYE CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED AND IS SMALL WITH A DIAMETER\r\nESTIMATED AT LESS THAN 20 NMI FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 100 KNOTS OR HIGHER AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SOME\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 14.3N 107.3W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 15.2N 109.0W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.3N 111.3W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 18.2N 115.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PAST 12 HOURS.\r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THIS TIME GFDL AND NOGAPS MAKE A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WHILE ALL THE BAMS...UKMET...AND\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST AGREES WITH THE MODELS TO 36 HOURS AND MAINTAINS THIS\r\nGENERAL DIRECTION OUT TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE CONTINUES TO BE WELL DEFINED AND HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN\r\nSIZE...NOW APPROXIMATELY 11 NM IN DIAMETER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n6.0...6.0...6.5PLUS FROM GLOBAL...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. \r\nBASED UPON THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE TREND DURING THE PAST\r\n24-HOURS IT APPEARS THAT HOWARD IS ON A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CURVE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SOME\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 14.7N 108.6W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 110.4W   140 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.4N 112.8W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.4N 115.0W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.2N 117.2W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE PAST 12 HOUR INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13 AND THE PAST 24 HOUR\r\nMOTION IS 295/13.  THE ADVISORY INITIAL MOTION WILL BE 290/13 WHICH\r\nIS WHAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS\r\nSHIFTS THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHERE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH COULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND MOVE THE HURRICANE A LITTLE\r\nFURTHER NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS T NUMBER 6.5 OR 127\r\nKNOTS.  HOWEVER THE COLDEST TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED FROM 130 TO 125 KNOTS ON\r\nTHIS BASIS.  THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE DECREASED SOME FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY ALSO BECAUSE OF THE ABOVE SUGGESTION THAT THE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND MENTIONED EARLIER MAY BE OVER.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 15.0N 110.0W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.7N 111.9W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.6N 114.5W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 18.3N 119.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE AROUND 6.0 AND 6.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 125 KNOTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS HOWARD APPROACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 209/12.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS EXPECTED SINCE THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 15.1N 111.2W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 113.0W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 124.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n\r\nHOWARD HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND\r\nCONTINUE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE.  T-NUMBERS ARE SOLID 6.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY\r\nAS HOWARD APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/12.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED SINCE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 15.4N 112.2W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 114.0W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 116.0W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 125.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 23 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT STILL\r\nREMAINS A STRONG HURRICANE.  T-NUMBERS ARE  5.0..5.5..6.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KTS WITH A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FORECAST OUT TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED SINCE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 15.7N 113.2W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.2N 114.8W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.9N 117.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 119.1W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 121.4W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 125.9W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HOWARD HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK\r\nTHIS MORNING.  THE SYSTEM HAS REGAINED SOME OF ITS SYMMETRY AS \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH HAD\r\nERODED EARLIER...HAS EXPANDED.  MEANWHILE...THE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL MAINTAINED AT 110 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS...NEAR 24/25 DEG C BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11 KNOTS.  THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK REFLECTS THIS.  THE TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 16.0N 114.3W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 115.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.3N 117.9W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 18.2N 120.2W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 122.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 127.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE AGAIN ESTIMATED AT 110 KT...AS IMPLIED BY THE\r\nANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWARD STILL HAS A RATHER LARGE COLD\r\nCLOUD CANOPY BUT THE EYE IS NOT DISTINCT.  THE TRACK REMAINS TOWARD\r\nABOUT 285/11 KT ON AVERAGE...WITH SOME WOBBLING NOTED DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AVN RETAINS THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH TO NE.  THIS\r\nPATTERN IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE WNW TO WEST\r\nTRACK...WHICH THE NHC FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 16.4N 115.3W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 117.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.9N 119.3W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 123.6W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.5N 128.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS OPENED UP AND IS QUITE LARGE NOW WITH A DOUBLE STRUCTURE\r\nAPPARENT...PERHAPS WITH A MESOCYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE\r\nOF THE CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5.  THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE\r\nIS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT.\r\n \r\nHOWARD REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING AT 290/10 KT.  WITH A STRONG\r\nANTICYCLONE FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE N TO NE...THE CURRENT TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AND NHC FORECAST LOOK MUCH LIKE THEY DID 6 HOURS AGO.  A\r\nWNW TO W TRACK IS EXPECTED AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW WEAKENING\r\nAS COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 16.6N 116.3W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.1N 117.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.8N 119.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 121.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.1N 123.6W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE REMAINS LARGE...ABOUT 50 TO 60 MILES IN DIAMETER.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED FROM 5.5 TO 6.0.  THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE\r\nIS INCREASED BACK TO 110 KT...BUT ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE IN 12\r\nHOURS.  THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR A SYSTEM\r\nTHAT UNDERGOES SIZE CHANGES AS HOWARD HAS DONE. \r\n \r\nHOWARD REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING AT 290/11 KT.  WITH A STRONG\r\nANTICYCLONE FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE N TO NE...THE CURRENT TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AND NHC FORECAST LOOK MUCH LIKE THEY DID 6 HOURS AGO.  A\r\nWNW TO W TRACK IS EXPECTED AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW WEAKENING\r\nAS COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 17.0N 117.5W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.6N 119.2W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.4N 121.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N 123.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 19.6N 125.7W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 20.4N 130.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD IS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH A VERY SYMMETRIC SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION.  THE EYE REMAINS RATHER LARGE...ABOUT 30 NMI IN\r\nDIAMETER...WITH A 60 NMI WIDE SURROUNDING RING OF -70 TO -75C\r\nCLOUD TOPS.  THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS NOW 6.5\r\nWHILE SUBJECTIVE-BASED ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN 6.5 FOR SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF HOWARD IS INCREASED TO \r\n125 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\n...WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING 25 DEG C WATERS BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHOWARD IS MOVING ON A CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED TRACK WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/11 KNOTS.  ALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS THE DEEP-LAYER MEAN\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 17.3N 118.8W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 17.8N 120.5W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 122.6W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.2N 124.8W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 127.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N 132.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n\r\nHOWARD CONTINUES AS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES\r\nHAVE BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.   INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n285/11 AND THE GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHING 25 DEG C WATERS BY 36 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHIS ADVISORY IS PRACTICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 17.5N 120.0W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 121.8W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.6N 123.9W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 19.3N 125.9W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.9N 128.2W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.9N 132.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE EYE ASSOCIATED WITH HOWARD SURROUNDED\r\nBY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT NO BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 125 KNOTS AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 AND THE GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE TROUGH 72 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK HOWARD WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOL WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 17.7N 120.8W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.2N 122.4W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 124.5W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 126.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.0N 133.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 1998\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE EYE ASSOCIATED WITH HOWARD\r\nSURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT NO BANDING FEATURES. \r\nLOW LEVEL STRAT0-CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED INTO HOWARD AND\r\nTHIS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALL DECREASED TO 5.5.. SO INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 105 KTS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS SLOWED DOWN SO THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/08.  THE\r\nMODEL ENSEMBLE GENERALLY TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST...ALSO AT A SLOWER PACE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 17.7N 121.6W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.9N 123.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N 124.7W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.4N 126.3W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.6N 131.4W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD CONTINUES ITS SLOW DECLINE.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL\r\nHAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE...ABOUT 30 NM IN DIAMETER...THE SURROUNDING\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 5.5...102 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 100 KNOTS.  THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nAS HOWARD APPROACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/09 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE DYNAMIC-\r\nBASED MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD.  A 24-HOUR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT HOWARD HAS BEEN ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE...NOTWITHSTANDING A WOBBLE OR TWO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING\r\n...AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 17.5N 122.5W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.6N 123.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 17.8N 126.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 127.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 18.2N 130.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.4N 134.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n\r\nHOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. IT\r\nIS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND WINDS ARE 95 KNOTS .  THIS TREND SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE AS HOWARD APPROACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/09 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 17.5N 123.5W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 125.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.7N 127.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 128.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N 135.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. IT\r\nIS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND WINDS ARE DOWN TO 85 KNOTS .  THIS TREND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE AS HOWARD APPROACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/08 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 17.5N 123.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 125.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 127.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.8N 128.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 130.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 26 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RAPIDLY DECREASING RING OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WITH RECENT DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 4.5...102 KNOTS TO 77\r\nKNOTS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD TO 85 KNOTS FOR THIS PACKAGE\r\nBUT EXPECT IT TO DECREASE LATER TODAY AS HOWARD HAS CROSSED THE 26\r\nSST ISOTHERM AND STRATOCU IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/08 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MORE\r\nWESTERLY THEN PREVIOUSLY BECAUSE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE\r\nMRF APPEARS CONFUSED BY A PHANTOM VORTEX TO ITS WEST.  THE MRF SHOWS\r\nHOWARD ROTATING AROUND THE NON-EXISTANT SYSTEM.  \r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 17.5N 124.3W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.7N 125.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.1N 127.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 18.6N 129.6W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.2N 136.3W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RAPIDLY DECREASING RING OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS AND FURTHER WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/06 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED.  \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 17.9N 124.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 18.1N 125.7W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 18.7N 127.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 135.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RAPIDLY DECREASING RING OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS AND FURTHER WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/07 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 18.4N 125.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 126.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.7N 127.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.4N 129.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 21.9N 136.3W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS A LARGE EYE.  DEEP CONVECTIVE EXISTS ONLY OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN QUADRANT AND IS DECREASING.  IT IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE DECREASING DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WHICH YIELD\r\nINTENSITIES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS.  THIS PACKAGE LOWERS THE\r\nINTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS...MAKING HOWARD A MINIMAL HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/08 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF HOWARD\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK IS EXPECTED.  AS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nDECREASE...HOWARD IS FORECAST TO ATTAIN A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS IT\r\nWILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS DURING THE LATER FORECAST\r\nPERIODS.\r\n\r\nGROSS \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 19.1N 126.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.8N 127.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.7N 128.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 130.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 22.1N 132.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 23.0N 137.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 27 1998\r\n\r\nONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  AVERAGING THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATION INTENSITIES FROM TPC AND NESDIS YIELD A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS...SO HOWARD IS DOWNGRADED TO A STORM ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  HOWARD IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES... AND SATELLITE-DERIVED ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AS IN\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGES.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN FORECASTS A LOW- TO MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD.  ALSO\r\nAS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...IT SHOULD TEND TO BE STEERED MORE BY THE\r\nFLOW IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE.  HOWARD/S CURRENT\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION...305/10...IS EXPECTED TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST WITH TIME.  THIS IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 19.9N 127.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.8N 128.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.8N 130.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N 132.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 23.0N 134.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 23.5N 139.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 55 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS HOWARD MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW TO MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD...AND THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME.  CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS\r\nMIDWAY BETWEEN THE SHALLOW BAM AND CLIPER.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 20.5N 127.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 21.4N 128.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N 130.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 23.2N 133.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 23.7N 135.3W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 24.0N 141.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45\r\nKNOTS AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS HOWARD MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 21.1N 128.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.5N 130.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N 131.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N 133.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 23.5N 135.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HOWARD HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF CONVECTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nRELOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS HOWARD MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 20.6N 129.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 130.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 21.0N 132.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 21.3N 134.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HOWARD HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS IN\r\nKEEPING WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nAS HOWARD CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEING\r\nSTEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 20.5N 129.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.6N 131.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.7N 132.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.7N 134.6W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.8N 136.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":34,"Date":"1998-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HOWARD HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL PERSISTENT PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCE TO 35\r\nKNOTS...MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN KEEPING WITH THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.  AN ERS2 WIND PASS WAS OBTAINED OVER HOWARD\r\nSHOWING ONLY A SMALL BAND OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS WINDS MOSTLY OVER THE\r\nWESTERN QUADRANTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS HOWARD MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08.  UNCERTAINTIES INCREASE WITH\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY BUT IT APPEARS THAT HOWARD IS NOW ON A MORE\r\nWESTERLY COURSE AND MAYBE EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 20.2N 130.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N 131.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 20.2N 133.7W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N 135.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Howard","Adv":35,"Date":"1998-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n\r\nHOWARD IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 19.5N 131.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N 133.0W    20 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.0N 134.0W    DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Howard","Adv":36,"Date":"1998-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 1998\r\n \r\nHOWARD IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION MOVING WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 19.3N 132.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 133.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nWHILE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL NOT WELL-ORGANIZED IN THE\r\nLARGE...MONSOON-LIKE...SYSTEM SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...A SHIP\r\nREPORTED 997 MB WHILE ANOTHER HAD 40 KT AT 18Z.  BASED ON THIS\r\nSURFACE DATA...THE DISTURBANCE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ISIS\r\nWITH 45 KT WINDS.  DUE TO THE LOOSE STRUCTURE THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOVEMENT ARE UNCERTAIN.  CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/8 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AND 12Z AVN MODEL RUNS TAKE ISIS NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ALTHOUGH PART OF THE\r\nMOTION COULD HAVE BEEN INDUCED BY THE EXTRANEOUS MODEL VORTEX TO THE\r\nWEST. THE UKMET OUTPUT FROM 12Z IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT...SHOWING ISIS\r\nMOVING ALL THE WAY UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITHIN 3 DAYS.  OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SIMILAR...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BUT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE\r\nHIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 20.2N 109.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 21.5N 109.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 24.3N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N 111.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 1998\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE/S DOPPLER RADAR IN CABO\r\nSAN LUCAS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISIS IS ABOUT\r\n35 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. MOREOVER...A SHIP OBSERVATION\r\nWAS RECEIVED LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE ESTIMATED RADAR LOCATION\r\nREPORTING NORTHEAST WINDS AT BEAUFORT FORCE 10...48-55\r\nKNOTS...AND A 993 MB PRESSURE.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE CENTER OF\r\nISIS IS BEING RE-LOCATED NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY WILL BE HELD\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH LAND. \r\n\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO IS EXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS\r\nON THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE SANTA ROSALIA TO PUNTA\r\nABREAJOS....AND MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST FROM ELDORADO TO GUAYMAS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KNOTS.  ISIS SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  MOST\r\nOF THE 00Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD HEADING\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO....AND IS IN CLOSEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS P91E AND P9UK.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 22.4N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 23.7N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 25.3N 109.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 26.9N 110.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N 111.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 31.0N 114.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n\r\nA VERY LARGE SYMMETRICAL AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION... TOPS TO \r\n-80C...HAS BEEN FIRING FOR THE LAST 3-4 HOURS AROUND THE SUSPECTED \r\nCENTER OF ISIS.  RECENTLY A BANDING-TYPE FEATURE HAS BECOME EVIDENT\r\nSOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO TO NEAR\r\nPUERTO VALLARTA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KNOTS\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH THE FAIR TO POOR OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEMS\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS\r\nISIS BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH MAINLAND MEXICO.  \r\n\r\nTHE LAST AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGE FROM THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE/S\r\nDOPPLER RADAR IN CABO SAN LUCAS...AROUND 05Z...PLACED THE CENTER \r\nABOUT 60-70 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  THIS POSITION\r\nESTIMATE IS CONFIRMED BY SSM/I...85GHZ IMAGERY OBTAINED FROM THE\r\nU.S. NAVY RESEARCH LABORATORY IN MONTEREY.  THE SYSTEMS FORWARD\r\nSPEED HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 360/5 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO \r\nKEEP ISIS ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY COURSE THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK. THE NHC TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LBAR \r\nAND THE UKMET...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY FASTER. \r\n\r\nTHE 12-FOOT SEA RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAS BEEN EXPANDED \r\nTO 275 NMI BASED ON 06Z SHIP DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHIS SYSTEM WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR\r\nINLAND AREAS WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN HIGH\r\nTERRAIN REGIONS.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 22.8N 109.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 23.5N 109.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 24.4N 109.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 25.7N 109.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 27.0N 110.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N 112.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nIT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ISIS ON IR IMAGES.\r\nSHIP REPORTS HAVE HELPED...AND IMPLY A NORTHWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 7\r\nKT.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...PERHAPS DUE TO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE INNER CIRCULATION\r\nAND THE NARROW MOUNTAIN RANGE THAT RUNS DOWN THE SPINE OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AVN INITIALIZATION SHOWS A LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONE IN THE\r\nSHAPE OF AN INVERTED V DRAPED OVER ISIS.  HENCE...THE FUTURE COURSE\r\nOF ISIS WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO CHANGES IN THE HIGH.  AT\r\nPRESENT...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PART OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST\r\nAND NE WILL DOMINATE AND STEER ISIS TO THE NW TO N.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT EVOLUTION...WITH MOST MODELS\r\nSHOWING TRACKS UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON THAT TRACK.  A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OR LEFT WOULD\r\nPUT THE CENTER OVER LAND AND LEAD TO WINDS LESS THAN WHAT WE SHOW IN\r\nTHE FORECAST.  IT IS RARE...BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED...FOR A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  KATRINA IN 1967 IS AN\r\nEXAMPLE OF A HURRICANE THAT CAUSED CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS...HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM POSES A THREAT FOR\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 23.3N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 24.3N 109.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 25.6N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.8N 110.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 111.9W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 30.5N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isis","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM MEXICO/S WEATHER SERVICE SITE AT GUASAVE...AND MORE\r\nRECENTLY THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...HAS HELPED\r\nLOCATE THE CENTER OF ISIS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TAKEN 75-100 NM FROM\r\nTHE CENTER AT LA PAZ AND CULIACAN.  IT IMPLIES A MOTION OF ABOUT 005\r\nDEGREES/10 KT.  ALTHOUGH WINDS AT THOSE SURFACE SITES ARE ONLY 10 KT\r\nAND 20 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT COMPLETELY\r\nENCIRCLE THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE\r\nBASED ON THE SATELLITE PICTURES.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE GUIDANCE AGAIN TAKES ISIS TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE TRACKS THIS TIME HEAD INLAND OVER\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO...AS WOULD BE IMPLIED WITHIN 12 HOURS BY\r\nEXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION.  IF THAT HAPPENS IT WOULD\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THE DURATION OF THE STORM/S LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND ITS POTENTIAL TO GENERATE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK IS MORE CAUTIOUS...SHOWING SOME BENDING BACK TO A\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION...WITH ISIS MOVING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  IT ALSO SHOWS A FASTER MOVEMENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...AS DOES THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE ABOVE IMPORTANT DETAILS ABOUT TRACK...ISIS WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO BE A FLOOD THREAT TO MEXICO FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  FOR\r\nTHE U.S. SOUTHWEST...THE 12Z 200-300 MB FORECASTS BY THE NOGAPS...\r\nAVN...GFDL...AND ETA...SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE\r\nFROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE FORECAST CONFIGURATION AT THIS TIME\r\nKEEPS RATHER STRONG WESTERLIES OR SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER NORTHWEST\r\nMEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW.  THIS WOULD CREATE A SHEARING\r\nENVIRONMENT IF ISIS MOVES INTO THAT REGION...AND ONE WHICH WOULD\r\nLIKELY ADVECT MUCH OF ISIS/S MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...\r\nMOSTLY TOWARD EASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  IF THE TROUGH DROPS\r\nFARTHER SOUTHWEST OR BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED...THEN ISIS\r\nCOULD BE DRAWN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AT A FASTER SPEED...AND\r\nWOULD THEN BRING MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 24.7N 109.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 26.2N 109.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 27.8N 111.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 29.4N 112.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 31.0N 113.6W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isis","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 02 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO/S WEATHER\r\nSERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AT GUASAVE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nISIS IS MAKING LANDFALL AT THIS TIME...JUST SOUTH OF LOS MOCHIS. \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS FROM LOS MOCHIS SINCE 02/2245Z.  THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS A NICE RADAR PRESENTATION AND SHOWS THAT THE HEAVIEST\r\nRAINS ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND SECTIONS JUST NORTH AND EAST OF \r\nLOS MOCHIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS ISIS AS A HURRICANE\r\nAT ADVISORY TIME FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS \r\nWITH LAND. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 005/10 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE 00Z\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MOVE ISIS TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST\r\nPACKAGE AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nDEVELOPING OFFSHORE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THIS WOULD RESULT\r\nIN THE ADVECTION OF MUCH OF ISIS/S ASSOCIATED MOISTURE EAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.  IF THE TROUGH\r\nDROPS FARTHER SOUTHWEST OR BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED...THEN\r\nISIS COULD BE DRAWN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AT A FASTER SPEED\r\n...AND WOULD THEN BRING MOISTURE FARTHER TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS ISIS MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH \r\n12 HOURS WITH A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION BEYOND.  \r\nTHIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT RIGHT ADJUSTMENT...THEREFORE A MORE \r\nINLAND TRAJECTORY...THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED PRIMARILY \r\nON THE INITIAL MOTION.  \r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED IN EARLIER ADVISORIES THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ISIS \r\nWILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS RESULTING IN\r\nPOSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES IN HIGH TERRAIN.  A STORM \r\nSURGE OF 3-5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE\r\nWARNED AREA.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD RUSH ALL\r\nPREPARATION TO COMPLETION.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 25.6N 109.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 26.5N 109.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 28.3N 110.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 30.0N 111.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 32.0N 113.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 35.5N 116.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 03 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LAST AVAILABLE RADAR IMAGE FROM THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE\r\nDOPPLER RADAR AT GUASAVE...0413Z...SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF \r\nISIS IS OVER LAND ABOUT 60 MILES OF LOS MOCHIS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KNOTS...AND ISIS IS DOWNGRADED TO \r\nA TROPICAL STORM.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM\r\nINTERACTS WITH LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHERLY HEADING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 350/10 KNOTS.  MOST\r\nOF THE 00Z TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MOVE ISIS ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO\r\n-75C INDICATING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  AS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY THE\r\nMAIN IMPACT FROM ISIS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH\r\nLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS RESULTING IN\r\nPOSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES IN HIGH TERRAIN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO THE MEXICAN-ARIZONA BORDER\r\nBETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS.  WE WILL BE COORDINATING WITH HPC AND \r\nTHE APPROPRIATE WEATHER OFFICES REGARDING THE RAINFALL THREAT\r\nIN THIS REGION.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 26.5N 109.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 27.7N 109.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 29.1N 111.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 30.7N 112.2W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 32.4N 113.4W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 35.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 03 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50\r\nKNOTS...AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS\r\nWITH LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED IN A NORTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/08 KNOTS.  MOST\r\nOF THE 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO MOVE ISIS ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK AND THAN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK CONTINUES THIS NORTHWARD TRACK AND DISSIPATES THE\r\nSYSTEM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAS INDICATED PREVIOUSLY THE MAIN IMPACT FROM ISIS WILL BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...5 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS RESULTING IN POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES\r\nIN HIGH TERRAIN.  \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 27.3N 109.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N 109.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 07 1998\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO AND IS\r\nNOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBEEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nMASS.  HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE BEING GENERATED NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...WHICH HAD BEEN RATHER\r\nPALTRY...IS GETTING A LITTLE BIT BETTER ESTABLISHED.  THEREFORE THE\r\nSHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE LESSENING AND SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WITH COOLING OCEAN TEMPERATURES BRAKING THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...QUITE UNCERTAIN FOR A NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/09.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN\r\nIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS WEAKENED THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ELEVEN-E.  MOREOVER THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A SIZEABLE 500 MB TROUGH DROPPING INTO CALIFORNIA\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE FLOW FEATURES COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO\r\nTURN MORE TO THE RIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN RECURVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTOWARD BAJA.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FAVOR A\r\nMORE SOUTHERN ROUTE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THEM LOOK A BIT BIZARRE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST GOES MORE WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND TRENDS\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE\r\nADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DEPENDING ON OBSERVED AND MODEL TRENDS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 19.7N 110.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.4N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.3N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N 114.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 07 1998\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND ATTEMPTING TO FORM ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING UPPER-\r\nLEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...APPROXIMATELY 100 MB...\r\nRESULTING IN RESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nHOWEVER...ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL\r\nSATELLITE STUDIES SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES NORTHWESTWARD.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nARE 2.0 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING \r\nIS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS.  AFTER 48 HOURS A WEAKENING TREND IS INITIATED\r\nAS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 24 DEG C SST/S.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KNOTS.  AS WAS THE CASE AT 12Z\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE A RATHER EXPANSIVE MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTH OF 35N ALONG 140W...TO THE U.S.\r\nWEST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS COULD RESULT IN A\r\nMORE NORTHERLY COURSE...POSSIBLY EVEN RECURVING THE SYSTEM TOWARD\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED\r\nFOR BAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG \r\nTHE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 20.4N 110.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.1N 111.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.1N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.1N 114.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N 118.0W    45 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 07 1998\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB ARE BOTH 2.5.  IN ADDITION...SOCCORRO ISLAND REPORTED A WIND OF\r\n270/28 KTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1000.6 MB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS...AND TD ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM JAVIER.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH THE SYSTEM\r\nUNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS INITIATED\r\nAS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 24 DEG C SST/S.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 KNOTS.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SCATTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A\r\nGRADUAL DECELERATION.  THIS IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TWO\r\nFORECAST PERIODS AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME...MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS COULD\r\nRESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE...POSSIBLY EVEN RECURVING THE\r\nSYSTEM TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA.  \r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 20.8N 112.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 114.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.4N 115.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.4N 116.9W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 26.4N 118.8W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 1998\r\n \r\nSPECIAL GOES IR CHANNEL REVEALS A SHEARED CIRCULATION EXPOSED OVER\r\nMOST OF THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTHIS IMAGERY IMPLY A SLOWER INITIAL MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED\r\n...NEAR 290/4 KT.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON A DVORAK SHEAR\r\nPATTERN GIVE MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 40 KT.\r\n \r\nWITH THE SLOWER MOTION USED TO INITIALIZE THE TRACK MODELS...MOST\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  EARLY ON...THERE\r\nIS AN INDICATION OF A CONTINUED SLOW WNW OR NW HEADING.  THEN...\r\nTHERE IS THE SUGGESTION OF A NORTHWARD TO EASTWARD DRIFT...PERHAPS\r\nAS THE FORECAST TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SIMILAR HEADING TO 6 HOURS AGO...BUT PULLS\r\nBACK THE FORECAST POINTS ALONG THAT TRACK.\r\n\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND THIS ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nDECREASE AND UPWELLING WILL NOT INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 20.6N 111.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.8N 112.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 21.1N 112.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N 113.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 113.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 23.0N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 1998\r\nCORRECTION TO ADVISORY NUMBER...6 INSTEAD OF 7\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF JAVIER IS EXPOSED EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF JAVIER IS NOW UNDER\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45\r\nKNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS\r\nIMPROVED SOMEWHAT.  THE MODEST STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY IS MAINTAINED.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES IMPLY THAT JAVIER/S FORWARD\r\nSPEED HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/03 KNOTS.  THE DRIVING FACTOR BEHIND\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE TROUGH\r\nIS FORECAST TO EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH...NEAR 20N...BY 48 HOURS\r\nTO PULL JAVIER NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST\r\n..THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST HEADING BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT\r\nACCELERATION.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS ONE CAVEAT TO THIS TRACK FORECAST...IF JAVIER STRENGTHENS\r\nMORE THAN FORECAST IT COULD RECURVE SOONER.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 20.7N 117.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N 112.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.3N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 21.7N 113.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.2N 113.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 1998\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT AS FAR AS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS\r\nCONCERNED...BUT MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL WHICH SHOWS\r\nTHE STORM CUT OFF AND NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO\r\nSHOWS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES DIGGING SOUTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE\r\nSTORM AND THIS COULD GET THE STORM MOVING DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nEXPOSED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS WELL WEST OF THE CENTER.  THIS\r\nIS THE BASIS FOR DECREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 35 KNOTS.  THERE DOES\r\nNOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY...EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nEXPOSED CENTER SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR.  THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING AFTER 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS RATHER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...BUT THE\r\nCURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND LOCATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nINDICATES THAT WARNINGS ARE NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 20.8N 111.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.9N 111.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.2N 112.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n \r\nJAVIER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  MEANWHILE...ITS\r\nCENTERED HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION ONLY EVIDENT\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z AVN ONCE AGAIN SHOWS A TROUGH DEVELOPING UNUSUALLY FAR TO\r\nTHE SOUTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ALONG THE WEST COAST.  INTERESTINGLY\r\n...IT SEEMS TO HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE MODEL/S FORECAST TRACK FOR\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH IT KEEPS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FOR THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK MODELS ALSO SHOW LITTLE MOTION...AS DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nJAVIER HAS BEEN WEAKENING WHILE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\nSUGGESTED STRENGTHENING WAS POSSIBLE.  THIS FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE FROM ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.\r\n  \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 20.5N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JAVIER REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH ONLY A NARROW BAND\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  IF CONVECTION DOES NOT INCREASE IN AND AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION JAVIER MAY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST 18 TO 24\r\nHOURS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE TROUGH OFF\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST DROPPING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 20N BY 24-36 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN ITS WEAKEN STATE ITS UNLIKELY\r\nTO BE IMPACTED BY THIS FEATURE.  WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE MOTION. SO...UNTIL SOME\r\nDETECTABLE MOTION OCCURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE HELD STATIONARY...PER\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 20.6N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n \r\nASIDE FROM SOME...DIMINISHING...DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...JAVIER IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE\r\nIS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nSOME POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...CURRENTLY JAVIER IS ON A\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING\r\nIN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE ONLY PERCEIVED MOVEMENT HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DRIFT TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...CLOSEST TO THE LIMITED\r\nAREA BAROTROPIC MODEL LBAR...BUT NORTHEAST OF MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...SHOWS A VERY MODEST INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A\r\nGRADUAL CURVE TO THE NORTHWEST.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL PASS\r\nCLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA...BUT SINCE THE CYCLONE IS A WEAKENING\r\nDEPRESSION...WATCHES OR WARNINGS SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.  HOWEVER\r\nSMALL CRAFT AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN\r\nIN PORT.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 21.1N 111.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.0N 111.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W    20 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W    20 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 09 1998\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH JAVIER REMAINS OVER WARM WATER...EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO REDUCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH MOST SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nREGENERATION IS REMOTE AS LONG AS THE SHEAR REMAINS AS STRONG AS IT\r\nIS AT PRESENT.  OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR JAVIER TO DISSIPATE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  STEERING\r\nCURRENTS HAVE COLLAPSED AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS LIKELY DURING\r\nTHIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL SHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION WHILE\r\nMOST OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR\r\nWEST AT VARYING SPEEDS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION\r\nGENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 21.0N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 111.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 22.5N 111.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A SINGLE SPOT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS CONTINUE TO FALL AND ARE\r\nNOW 1.5 OR LOWER...IMPLYING WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.  TOP WINDS SPEEDS\r\nDETECTED BY THE ERS-2 ARE ALSO NEAR 25 KT.  THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nREMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PERHAPS\r\nDRIFTING TOWARD THE EAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE FLOW TO STEER JAVIER. THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS LIFT\r\nTHE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNE AND BUILD SOMEWHAT THE RIDGE BETWEEN THAT LOW AND THE DEPRESSION.\r\nTHAT INTRODUCES A SLIGHT WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING\r\nCURRENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH COULD MOVE JAVIER IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION IF...IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT..IT IS A FAIRLY DEEP\r\nSYSTEM THEN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 20.9N 110.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 20.9N 110.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 20.9N 110.8W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 21.0N 112.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SINGLE SPOT OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE NOW 1.5 OR\r\nLOWER...IMPLYING WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO\r\nREMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE FLOW TO STEER JAVIER. THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS LIFT\r\nTHE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNE AND BUILD SOMEWHAT THE RIDGE BETWEEN THAT LOW AND THE DEPRESSION.\r\nTHAT INTRODUCES A SLIGHT WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHICH COULD MOVE JAVIER IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 20.9N 110.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 20.9N 110.6W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.9N 110.6W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 20.9N 111.2W    20 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.9N 112.0W    20 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.9N 113.6W    20 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN NEAR 1.5 OR LOWER...\r\nIMPLYING WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REMAIN\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY...PERHAPS A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST.  UPPER\r\nLEVEL EASTERLIES CONTINUE TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM AND PREVENT ANY\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION.   HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR WERE TO\r\nDECREASE THE SYSTEM COULD MAKE A COME BACK.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE FLOW TO STEER JAVIER.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSUGGEST THAT A SLIGHT WESTWARD STEERING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION\r\nIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WOULD MOVE JAVIER IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.  THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN VERY DIVERGENT...THE\r\nGFDL MOVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OUT TO 48 HOURS AND THAN\r\nA TURN TO THE EAST AT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGFDL TRACK BUT AT A SLOWER SPEED.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 20.5N 110.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 20.2N 109.9W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 19.8N 109.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 19.4N 109.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.9N 108.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 18.4N 107.7W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 10 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...BUT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED AGAIN.  REINTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nAS LONG AS THE SHEAR PERSISTS.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25\r\nKNOTS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nJAVIER HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN WEAK...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NAVY NOGAPS AND\r\nUKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 20.5N 109.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 1998\r\n \r\nNOT MUCH CHANGE TO REPORT.  THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A CIRCULATION OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS...WITH A SPOT OF THUNDERSTORMS SW OF THE CENTER.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  JAVIER IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 20.3N 109.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 20.3N 109.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 20.3N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 20.3N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 20.3N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 20.3N 109.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 1998\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT IN DIRECTION OF\r\nMOTION...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 19.5N 109.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N 109.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 109.0W    DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 11 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH LIMITED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY BY ANALYSTS AT TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR IS CONTINUING TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE SYSTEM...AND THERE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX JUST SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO\r\nTHAT MAY BE INTERFERING WITH THE CIRCULATION.  JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON JAVIER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nHOWEVER...A LOW WILL BE CARRIED ON THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR A\r\nWHILE LONGER.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 19.0N 109.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 01 1998\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS INVOLVED WITH A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH\r\nHAS PERSISTED MOST OF THE DAY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 2.0...30 KNOTS. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING INITIATED AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTWELVE-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  SOME GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE STATISTICAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...BRINGING THE \r\nSYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/5 KNOTS.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND A SLOW WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK BY 72 \r\nHOURS.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nWILL LIKELY BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 20.6N 109.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 20.9N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.2N 110.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 01 1998\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING\r\nAT THIS TIME.  BECAUSE T-NUMBERS REMAIN 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMODEL DOES NOT INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE GFDL\r\nDISSIPATES IT BY 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE\r\nOCEAN IS WARM...SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS SUGGESTED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE.  MODELS\r\nINDICATE TRACKS IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 20.8N 109.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 21.3N 110.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 1998\r\n \r\nANALYSIS OF SATELLITE PICTURES PUTS THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY LOCATION...NEAR 21N109W.  SHIP REPORTS 50-75 NMI TO THE N\r\nAND NE OF THAT POSITION...HOWEVER...SHOW SW WINDS AT BOTH LOCATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IMPLIES THAT EITHER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXCEEDINGLY\r\nSMALL...THERE IS NO SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER...OR THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AND WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  FOR THIS FORECAST\r\nCYCLE...ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR A CENTER THAT IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE SHIP DATA.\r\n \r\nWITH THE POOR ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY OBSERVED...NO INTENSIFICATION\r\nWILL BE SHOWN FOR THE SHORT TERM.  THE GFDL AND UKMET DISSIPATE THE\r\nTD NEARLY IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE SHIPS SCHEME\r\nSHOWS SLOW WEAKENING BY THREE DAYS.  THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSCATTERED HEADINGS...BUT A SLOW SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM STATIONARY.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 21.8N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 21.8N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 21.8N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 1998\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR\r\n20.0 109.5.  THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nVIOLATES THE 06Z C6LF9 SHIP REPORT AT 21.4N 109.6W WITH A WIND OF\r\n230/27.  IF THAT SHIP IS CORRECT...THEN THERE IS NO WELL DEFINED LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION.  REALIZING THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE\r\nCENTER OF A WEAK SYSTEM...THE INITIAL POSITION IS PUT AT 20.O 109.5\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS STATIONARY.\r\n \r\nTHE GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE A BIT WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING A SLOW\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION......THE LBAR SHOING A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION...THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWING A MOSTLY SOUTHWARD MOTION...AND\r\nTHE GFDL AND UKMET SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOTION.  THE FORECAST\r\nRESOLVES THIS DIVERGENCE BY HOLDING THE DEPRESSION STATIONARY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT THERE IS LITTLE\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND HOLDS THE WIND SPEED AT 30 KNOTS UNTIL\r\n36 HOURS WHEN THE WIND IS INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 20.0N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 02 1998\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.  THERE IS\r\nAN EAST/WEST 500 MB RIDGE ANCHORED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET ALL SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR\r\n72 HOURS.  THE LBAR AND BAM MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A SHIP REPORTED 33 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT\r\n15Z...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NUMEROUS OTHER SHIP REPORTS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS BELOW STORM STRENGTH.  THERE IS VERY\r\nLITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS IS NOT WELL\r\nORGANIZED.  THE SHIPS STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 20.6N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 20.5N 109.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 110.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 110.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 111.1W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N 111.9W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 02 1998\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE WITH A FEW PATCHES OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION.  GUSTY WINDS\r\nMAY STILL OCCURRING IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW. \r\n \r\nSINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 21.3N 109.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N 110.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 22.0N 111.0W             DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-10-13 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 12 1998\r\n \r\nWE HAVE BEEN TRACKING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE WAS INITIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND\r\nBEGAN LIFTING NORTHWARD ON THE 10TH BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE ITCZ\r\nON THE 11TH. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS HAD A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE LAST 18-24 HOURS THE COVERAGE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN MEAGER.  HOWEVER...THE AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS EXPANDED SUFFICIENTLY DURING THE LAST 6-9 HOURS TO\r\nWARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. \r\nFURTHERMORE...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH KGWC AND SAB ARE \r\nNOW 2.0.  THUS...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TD THIRTEEN-E\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC\r\nAND ANALYSES FROM THE COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR METEOROLOGICAL\r\nSATELLITE STUDIES...CIMSS...AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES\r\nLITTLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nIS FORECAST..IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE PREDICTION\r\nSCHEME..SHIPS..WITH THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY \r\n12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO STEER THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY COURSE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH LBAR AND BAMD.  THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nTAKING THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n   \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 16.2N 118.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.6N 118.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.2N 119.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.9N 120.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 123.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-10-13 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 310/04 BASED ON PAST 24 HOURS OF MOTION.  THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOLLOWING THE LARGE SCALE STEERING CURRENTS FROM A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LBAR AND THE BAM MODELS.  HOWEVER\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL DRIFTS THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD FOR 30 HOURS AND THEN\r\nDISSIPATES IT.  THE UKMET DRIFTS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 3 DAYS\r\nAND THE AVATION MODEL SHOWS LITTLE MOTION FOR 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE DIVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 15.9N 118.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.2N 118.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.6N 119.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 120.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.3N 120.9W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 122.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-10-13 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES HAVE INTERMITTENTLY REVEALED A SMALL WARM SPOT\r\n...PERHAPS AN EYE.  GIVEN THAT EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES\r\n...UP OR DOWN...SEEM TO OCCUR MOST OFTEN WITH SMALL SYSTEMS LIKE\r\nTHIS ONE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD HAVE\r\nJUMPED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC...WHEN THE WARM SPOT WAS NOT DISTINCT...\r\nWERE SOMEWHAT LOWER...45 TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM KAY.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT...NOW 300\r\nDEGREES AT 3 KT.  KAY IS LOCATED TO THE SW OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE\r\nAND TO THE SE OF A TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE 06Z AVN\r\nOUTPUT SHOWS THE TROUGH BYPASSING KAY...WITH MOST ASSOCIATED TRACK\r\nMODELS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK INDICATING THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WNW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE AVN ITSELF...THE UKMET...AND GFDL SHOW A\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD HEADING.\r\n \r\nA LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS\r\nSCHEME.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 16.1N 118.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 119.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.4N 119.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.6N 120.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 120.9W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 122.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kay","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-10-13 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS PERSISTED ON MOST OF THE SATELLITE PICTURES FOR THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS AND...WITH A T-NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM SAB...KAY IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  THE HEADING CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY\r\nSHIFT TOWARD THE LEFT.  INITIAL MOTION IS 290/3 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  A SLOW\r\nMOVEMENT IS IN STORE...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A W TO WNW HEADING. \r\nA TURN TOWARD THE S OR SW IS STILL SHOWN BY THE REMAINDER.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES IMPLY SOME LEVELLING OFF AT\r\nTHIS POINT...NHC AND SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 16.1N 118.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 119.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.3N 119.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.4N 120.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 120.9W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kay","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-10-14 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 1998\r\n \r\nKAY IS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CDO-TYPE VISIBLE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN.  THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE WHICH WAS SEEN MOST OF THE DAY \r\nIS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS FROM \r\nSAB AND KGWC REMAIN 4.0 WHILE TAFB IS UP TO 3.5.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 65 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW IS REASONABLY\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY\r\nREMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...PER CIMSS ANALYSES. \r\nTHE ONLY POSSIBLE DETRIMENT TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS THE\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS KAY AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC ALL SUGGEST THAT KAY IS\r\nMOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY HEADING AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW 270/03 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE 18Z OUTPUT WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A W TO WNW TRACK...\r\nSOME INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE AVNI AND UKMET SUGGEST A SW TO S COURSE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS WITH A MORE WSW HEADING THEREAFTER...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nP9UK AND THE 18Z GFDL.  THIS REPRESENTS A MODEST LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 16.0N 119.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 119.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.9N 120.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N 121.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N 121.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 15.5N 122.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-10-14 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 14 1998\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO KEEP KAY AS A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS\r\nNO LONGER OBSERVED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB HAVE BEEN\r\nDECREASING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY COULD REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF\r\nKAY RESTRENGTHENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IT WITH 60 KNOTS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING AS PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nKAY IS WITHIN A NON-DESCRIPTIVE FLOW PATTERN AND WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS. CONSEQUENTLY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING EVERY POSSIBLE TRACK. \r\nKAY IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 15.7N 120.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.6N 120.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 121.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 121.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 15.5N 123.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-10-14 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 14 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY VANISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nKAY COULD BE WEAKENING AS FAST AS IT STRENGTHENED YESTERDAY.  DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE RULES CONSTRAIN SATELLITE ANALYSTS FROM LOWERING THEIR\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES TO BELOW A CI OF 3.5...55 KT...AT 1200 UTC. \r\nTHERE COULD STILL BE A CIRCULATION ALOFT OF THAT STRENGTH.  IT IS\r\nUNLIKELY...HOWEVER...LACKING A MECHANISM TO GENERATE/SUSTAIN SUCH A\r\nSTRONG WIND AT THE SURFACE OR TO TRANSPORT IT THERE FROM ALOFT...\r\nTHAT SURFACE WINDS ARE AS HIGH AS 55 KT.  ERS-2 DATA IMPLY WINDS NO\r\nHIGHER THAN 40 KT...AND THIS IS THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATE FOR 1500 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE BEND IN TRACK TOWARD THE LEFT CONTINUES WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW\r\nSW...230/7 KT.  A SLOW WEST TO SW MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 15.4N 120.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.9N 121.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.6N 122.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.4N 123.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 14.4N 124.1W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-10-14 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 14 1998\r\n \r\nA SPOT OF THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...BUT IT IS DISAPPEARING NOW.  CURRENT WIND SPEED\r\nESTIMATE IS 35 KT...ABOUT 10 KT BELOW THE FORMAL DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nKAY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE SSW...WITH THE 12Z AVN SHOWING WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS TO PERSIST.  WHILE TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT KNOWN\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING WHEN MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION...WARMER WATERS ARE\r\nAHEAD IN THIS CASE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD\r\nEVENTUALLY OCCUR.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nSHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  THE UKMET...WHICH SEEMS TO BE\r\nDOING QUITE WELL ON THIS SYSTEM...CONTINUES THE CYCLONIC LOOP.  \r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 14.6N 120.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N 121.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.8N 121.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.6N 122.6W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N 123.4W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N 124.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 14 1998\r\n \r\nKAY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAVING ALL BUT DISAPPEARED.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A FLARE-UP IN\r\nA NARROW BAND OF SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER IT IS INSUFFICIENT \r\nFOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATION PURPOSES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 30 KNOTS AND KAY IS DOWNGRADED TO DEPRESSION STATUS.\r\nTHE FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 205/06 KNOTS. MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST\r\n...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.  THE AVN AND\r\nGFDL HAVE NOW JOINED THE UKMET IN LOOPING THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 14.1N 121.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 13.5N 121.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.9N 122.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 12.7N 123.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n\r\nA LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECURRING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-\r\nKNOT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR\r\nDISSIPATION IN THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE NOGAPS MODEL ALSO SHOWS A FAIRLY SIMILAR TRACK.  AS\r\nNOTED EARLIER...OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE UKMET AND GFDL SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM LOOPING TOWARD THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR TWO. \r\nTHIS IS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING NEAR\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST.  HOWEVER IT IS PRESUMED THAT KAY WILL BE SO\r\nWEAK THAT IT WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE NEAR-SURFACE NORTHEAST\r\nTRADEWIND FLOW.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 13.6N 121.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 13.0N 122.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N 122.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 12.0N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n \r\nWHILE RATHER LIMITED OVERALL...THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION IN KAY\r\nTHAN AT ANY TIME DURING THE PAST 30 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL AGAIN BE ESTIMATED AT 30 KT AND THIS FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW A\r\nSTEADY DECLINE TOWARD DISSIPATION AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.\r\n \r\nKAY IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OF WEST.  THE 06Z AVN SHOWS\r\nLITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...WHILE THE 00Z NOGAPS CONTINUES\r\nTHE SW TO W MOTION.  OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPREAD AROUND THE\r\nCOMPASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL DRIFT TOWARD THE\r\nWSW.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 13.6N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.4N 121.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.3N 122.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.3N 122.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 13.2N 123.1W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 13.2N 123.1W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS CAME BACK UP TO 2.0 AT 1800Z...BUT CONVECTION HAS\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY FIZZLED AGAIN.  THE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT\r\nAND LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nKAY HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...PERHAPS A SW DRIFT.\r\nLITTLE OVERALL MOTION WILL BE SHOWN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN\r\nCLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.  OTHER MODELS SHOW SCATTERED\r\nHEADINGS BUT GENERALLY A SLOW MOTION.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 13.4N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REAPPEARED INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE LAST\r\n6 HOURS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST...THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST SUGGEST THAT KAY HAS BEEN DRIFTING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 140/04 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER \r\nAT VARYING SPEEDS.  THE GFDL...AVN AND UKMET CONTINUE THE IDEA OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION LOOPING TOWARD THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST PARTIALLY\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KAY ON A SLOW SOUTHEAST THEN EAST\r\nCOURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY.  IF IT WEAKENS IT MAY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 12.9N 121.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 12.6N 120.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 12.4N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 12.2N 119.6W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 12.2N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION AND\r\nINTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 3O KNOTS\r\nAND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND SINCE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE WEAK...LITTLE MOTION IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 12.5N 120.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 12.3N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 12.0N 120.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 12.0N 119.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 12.0N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 12.0N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 140/04.  THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nDRIFTING IN A MORE OR LESS CYCLONIC LOOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A\r\nSTAGNANT STEERING CURRENT WHICH COVERS A LARGE AREA.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENT BUT ALL MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE\r\nADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE IDEA OF CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC LOOP TOWARD THE EAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL AND NOGAPS BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND UKMET WHICH TAKE\r\nTHE DEPRESSION FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND MORE APPEARS TO BE GROWING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND KGWC AND A 2.0\r\nFROM SAB GIVES A WIND SPEED NEAR 25 KNOTS...BUT IT WILL BE KEPT AT\r\n30 KNOTS FOR 12 MORE HOURS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 12.1N 120.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 11.8N 120.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.8N 119.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 11.9N 118.9W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 12.2N 118.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 13.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 150/04.  THE GFDL...UKMET..AVIATION\r\nAND NOGAPS MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR\r\n72 HOURS.  THE LBAR SHOWS A FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE DEEP AND\r\nMEDIUM BAMS SHOW A SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SLOW MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOVING THE\r\nDEPRESSION SLOWLY EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD SIMILAR TO MANY OF THE\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION DISAPPEARED FOR A WHILE BUT IS COMING BACK TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER ON THE PAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS...BUT 72 HOURS OF\r\nPOSITIONS ARE GIVEN IN THE FORECAST IN CASE IT DOES NOT DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 11.7N 120.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.4N 120.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 11.4N 119.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 11.6N 118.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 12.0N 117.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 13.0N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF KAY REMAINS EXPOSED WITH SPORADIC DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR\r\nTHE LAST 24 HOURS.  KAY HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 130/04 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS NOW INVOLVED\r\nWITH THE ITCZ AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SE/E AND WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON KAY...UNLESS RE-GENERATION OCCURS.  FURTHER INFORMATION \r\nON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE EAST PACIFIC HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECAST ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSES AND FORECAST BRANCH...\r\nTAFB...AT THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZPN03\r\nKNHC AND AFOS HEADER MIAHSFEP2.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 11.6N 120.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 11.3N 119.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 11.3N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 14 1998\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST \r\nOF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS EVENING.  A BANDING FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SOUTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR/\r\nAROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK PATTERN-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE \r\n2.0. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION \r\n14-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS.   \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE AND THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED.  WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS AND LITTLE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF\r\nTHE DVORAK DEVELOPMENT CURVE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. \r\nTHE ONLY POSSIBLE HINDERANCE TO STRENGTHENING BEYOND 24-36 HOURS \r\nMAY BE THE PROXIMITY OF THE SYSTEM TO LAND. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS BEEN MOVING ON A SLOW WESTWARD PATH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 275/04 KNOTS.  ALL THE AVAILABLE 00Z TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...AS IT IS STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nIS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH P9UK AND CLIPER.  THE CURRENT TRACK \r\nDOES NOT REQUIRE ANY WATCH OR WARNING ISSUANCES AT THIS TIME.  \r\nHOWEVER...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE SYSTEM HEADS ON A MORE NORTHWEST\r\nCOURSE AND/OR INCREASES IN SPEED.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE GUATEMALA\r\nAND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 11.4N  91.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 11.6N  92.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.1N  93.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 12.7N  94.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N  95.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  97.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED\r\nWITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES...AND UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC\r\nOUTFLOW IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nLIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO INFRARED FIXES BUT IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 285/05...JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A 500 MB\r\nANTICYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH MOVES OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THUS\r\nA MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND THE GFDL MODEL SUGGESTS AN EVEN MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER THAT MODEL DOES NOT HAVE A VERY GOOD TRACK\r\nRECORD FOR EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. \r\n\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AND GUATEMALA SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 11.7N  92.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.0N  93.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.6N  94.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N  95.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N  96.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.0N  98.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD BE LOCATED TO THE NE OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  IF\r\nSO...THIS IMPLIES A MOTION TOWARD THE NW OR NNW AT ABOUT 5 KT...AND\r\nAN INCREASING THREAT TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND POSSIBLY\r\nGUATEMALA.  ACCORDINGLY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE\r\nBEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENTS OF THOSE COUNTRIES.  THE PRIMARY\r\nTHREAT...PARTICULARLY WITH A SLOW MOVEMENT EXPECTED...IS FOR HEAVY\r\nRAIN...FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nTHE TD IS RATHER LARGE...CONTAINING SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS RELATIVELY FREE OF THUNDERSTORMS\r\nAND...WITH DVORAK T- NUMBERS STILL AT 2.0...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL\r\nESTIMATED AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nA STRONG TROUGH IS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND NW\r\nMEXICO.  THIS MORNING/S AVN RUN MOVES THE TROUGH EASTWARD WITH\r\nLITTLE ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD EXTENT AND LITTLE NET EROSION OF THE\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS KEEPS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN A GENERAL STEERING FLOW FROM THE SE.  MOST TRACK MODELS\r\nSHOW A NW HEADING.  THE NHC FORECAST DOES AS WELL...AND IS OFFSET A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nCURRENT CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 12.7N  92.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.3N  92.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 14.1N  93.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.9N  94.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N  95.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N  97.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY FORMING CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT T-NUMBERS AVAILABLE ARE 2.5 FROM TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA.  HENCE...THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE TD IN NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KT.  THE 12Z\r\nAVN LARGE-SCALE PATTERN AT 500 MB RESEMBLES ITS 06Z COUNTERPART\r\n...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A GENERAL SE TO NW STEERING\r\nCURRENT TO THE SW OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nASSOCIATED TRACK MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...SHOW A NW HEADING. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST DOES AS WELL...WITH THE SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST IN\r\nAROUND 48 HOURS.  EVEN IF THAT OCCURS...THE SUBSEQUENT TRACK BECOMES\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE MOUNTAINS OF SW MEXICO COULD DIVERT THE\r\nCYCLONE EITHER UP THE COAST TOWARD ACAPULCO OR THROUGH THE GAP NORTH\r\nOF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.\r\n \r\nTHE UKMET AND NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND REMAINS PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 13.0N  92.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.6N  93.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.3N  93.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.2N  94.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N  95.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N  97.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 15 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL WIND SPEED...\r\n \r\nTD 14-E HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING\r\nWITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nONGOING OVER/NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK OBJECTIVE-BASED\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5+ FROM SAB.  ON\r\nTHIS BASIS TD 14-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...LESTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST WITH LESTER BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 24 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WILL LIKELY\r\nBE THE SYSTEMS/S PROXIMITY TO LAND.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 6 HOURS SUGGEST THAT\r\nLESTER HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW 305/6 KNOTS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF\r\nOF MEXICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE U.S WEST COAST.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  MOST\r\nOF THE 00Z TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO\r\nWITH VARIATIONS IN SPEED.  THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS SOLUTION\r\nARE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE SOUTH\r\nAND SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN IT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWITH THE LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO\r\nHAS EXTENDED TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WESTWARD TO PUNTA MALDONALDO\r\nAND HAS ISSUED A HURRIANCE WATCH FROM PUNTA ARISTA TO PUNTA\r\nMALDONALDO.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND REMAINS PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 13.2N  93.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.7N  94.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.4N  94.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 15.1N  95.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 16.0N  96.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESTER CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT IS ENOUGH TO FAVOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  LESTER IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nREACHING THE COAST IN 24 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/07.  MOST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS SINCE THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nSHOULD MOVE EASTWARD.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF LESTER SHOULD BE\r\nNEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF THE STORM AND\r\nMOVE LESTER VERY LITTLE OR ERRATICALLY.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND IS PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 14.1N  93.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.8N  94.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 15.5N  95.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 16.5N  96.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.0N  97.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N  98.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WRAP CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER FROM\r\nTHE NE...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SO NEITHER\r\nHAS THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED...50 KT.  MORE INFORMATION COULD BE\r\nAVAILABLE LATER TODAY WHEN A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.  THIS FLIGHT IS PART OF A TEST\r\nTO WORK OUT OVERFLIGHT CLEARANCE PROCEDURES FOR MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENT NEAR LESTER...BUT THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE PAINTS A MORE CONFUSED PICTURE.  SEVERAL OF THE MODELS AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION TO\r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS HEADS SE...THE UKMET SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION NEAR THE CURRENT POSITION...AND THE GFDL AND BAM STOP\r\nSHORT OF THE COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT OVER LAND WILL BE PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN...FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 14.3N  94.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N  95.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 15.6N  96.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 16.4N  97.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 16.9N  98.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  99.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS CONFIRMED THE ESTIMATES MADE\r\nFROM SATELLITE PICTURES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS INITIALLY FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND THEN 992\r\nMB.  WHILE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT WERE FOUND ON THE ONLY\r\nLEG NE OF THE CENTER...A DROP IN THE EYEWALL SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS\r\n80 KT...AND 71 KT AT THE SURFACE..  CLOUD TOPS WARMED CONSIDERABLY\r\nTODAY...BUT AN EYE HAS BECOME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE PICTURES AND\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0.  LESTER IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE\r\nWITH 70 KT SURFACE WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE NW HEADING HAS PERSISTED...ALTHOUGH THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST A\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO ABOUT 5 KT.  THE 12Z AVN KEEPS LESTER ON THE SW SIDE OF\r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ASSOCIATED TRACK MODELS\r\nAND THE NHC FORECAST SHOW A CONTINUATION OF THE NW HEADING...AND\r\nLANDFALL WITHIN 24 HOURS.  IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW\r\nRELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION.\r\n \r\nAS LESTER NEARS LAND...THE CENTER COULD BE DIVERTED AROUND THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN OF MEXICO.  ON POSSIBILITY IS FOR LESTER TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THESE OBSTACLES...ALONG THE COAST\r\nIN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF ACAPULCO.  A MORE DRASTIC CHANGE IN\r\nTRACK WOULD OCCUR IF LESTER TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND MOVED INTO\r\nTHE PASS NORTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.\r\n \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 14.4N  94.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.0N  95.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.8N  96.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 16.4N  97.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.8N  98.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nAS THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE LEFT THE HURRICANE AT 2100Z IT\r\nREPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB. LATEST DEVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n4.5 AND AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 980 MB.  SO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS\r\nARE INCREASED TO 75 KTS.  \r\n \r\nLESTER HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AND TAKEN A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDIRECTION.  INITIAL MOTION IS 295/04 KTS.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT LESTER WILL TRACK ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE BUT\r\nA SLIGHT CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD BRING THE HURRICANE INLAND. \r\nREGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nTO THE COASTLINE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND PARALLELS THE COASTLINE AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.  AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION.\r\n \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 14.5N  94.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.8N  95.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.2N  96.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N  97.6W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N  98.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 17.1N 100.8W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESTER CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. THE HURRICANE HAS AN EYE EMBEDDED BY A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 6 KNOTS.\r\nTHERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nTO KEEP LESTER MOVING ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF LESTER WILL BE\r\nMOVING PARALLEL AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE BUT ANY DEVIATION TO\r\nTHE NORTH COULD BRING THE CORE INLAND.  REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE COASTLINE DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF PUNTA\r\nMALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.  \r\n \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...PRIMARILY BECAUSE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CORE OF HURRICANE OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 14.6N  95.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N  96.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  97.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  99.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 100.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS.  THE 00Z\r\nAVN FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF THE FLOW\r\nIN LESTER/S VICINITY...AROUND THE SW SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO NUDGE\r\nTHE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WNW.  THE NWS AND NOGAPS TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY SHOW THIS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY FLYING THROUGH LESTER.  THEY\r\nFOUND 93 KT WINDS NE AND SE OF THE CENTER AT 700 MB.  A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF AROUND 973 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED FROM THIS DATA TO BE NEAR 85 KT.  SLIGHT\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 14.6N  95.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.7N  95.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N  96.6W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 15.2N  97.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.6N  98.6W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 100.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE THE HURRICANE HUNTERS DEPARTED A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...THE EYE AND EYEWALL REMAIN WELL DEFINED AND\r\nGIVEN THAT THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATED WIND SPEED...BASED ON AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...WAS ALREADY BELOW THE SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES...85 KT IS\r\nAGAIN CHOSEN AS THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nLESTER IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN...ROUGHLY\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST.  THE 12Z AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE STEERING\r\nFLOW...IF REPRESENTED BY THE WINDS AT 500 MB...INCREASES BY ABOUT 5\r\nKT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  UNFORTUNATELY...THAT MODEL DOESN/T\r\nDISTINGUISH BETWEEN LESTER AND MADELINE AT 850 MB AT THE END OF\r\nTHAT PERIOD.  THE GFDL SHOW A MARKED ACCELERATION TO NEAR 20 KT\r\nBEGINNING NOW...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC.  MOST OF THE REST OF THE\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nPREDICTION...SHOWING LESTER MOVING PARALLEL TO AND NEAR THE SW COAST\r\nOF MEXICO.  THIS REQUIRES EXTENDING THE HURRICANE WARNING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO INCLUDE ACAPULCO.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS SHOWN.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 14.8N  96.2W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N  97.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.6N  98.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 100.4W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.6N 101.9W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY HAVE DECREASED ONE-HALF T-\r\nNUMBER FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...MORE IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS RECON\r\nOBS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT.  HOWEVER...FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS STARTING TO SLOWLY MOVE LESTER AWAY FROM MAINLAND...AND\r\nLEAVES THE POSSIBILITY FOR LATER STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nLESTER IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST 280/05 KNOTS.  IF THIS\r\nPERSISTS THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAINLAND.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST OR APPROXIMATELY\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 14.7N  96.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.8N  97.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.1N  98.6W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 15.6N 100.2W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.3N 102.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.7N 105.8W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-10-18 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BUT MOVING IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION NEAR 7 KNOTS...AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION LESSENS THE\r\nTHREAT TO SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTION\r\nFOR 500 MB SHOWS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT\r\n2-3 DAYS WITH SOME WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHIS SUPPORTS A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT\r\nGENERALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION\r\nMODELS.  ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT LESTER\r\nCOULD MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO\r\nCAUSE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE RING OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS BEEN ERODING ON RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY JUST A FLUCTUATION.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE CONTINUES NEAR 85 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT HIGHER.  ANOTHER AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF\r\nLESTER WILL GIVE MORE DEFINITIVE INTENSITY INFORMATION.  A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE THE\r\nENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE.  \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 14.6N  97.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 14.7N  98.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 15.5N 101.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 103.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-10-18 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF LESTER WHICH HAS BEEN A PROMINENT FEATURE FOR THE LAST\r\n24 HOURS OR SO IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE\r\nCENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CDO OF -70 TO -80 DEG C CLOUD\r\nTOPS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 85 KNOTS WITH\r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LESTER LATER\r\nTODAY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL HAS FAIR OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER \r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nAHEAD...PER CIMSS ANALYSES. THUS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING \r\nIS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nA 24-HOUR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT LESTER HAS BEEN MOVING ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD HEADING.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07\r\nKNOTS.  A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL P9UK.  AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE THREAT TO\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD DIMINISH.  HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nCONCERN THAT LESTER COULD MOVE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND COME CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO THE COAST TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS. \r\n\r\nIF THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTS THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO MAY\r\nDISCONTINUE THE HURRICANE WARNINGS LATER TODAY.  \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 14.5N  98.1W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 14.6N  99.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N 100.9W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 15.3N 102.4W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-10-18 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION...\r\n \r\nTHE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MADE ITS PASS\r\nTHROUGH LESTER A FEW HOURS AGO AND REPORTED 85 KNOT SURFACE WINDS\r\nAND A 973 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A GPS DROPSONDE. ON ITS EXIT\r\nLEG THROUGH THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IT FOUND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n98 KNOTS.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES HAVE SHOWN A FAINT\r\nEYE-TYPE FEATURE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY HAS\r\nBEEN LESS DEFINITIVE.  THE RECON AIRCRAFT OBSERVED A CIRCULAR 15 NMI\r\nCLOSED EYE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS REPORTS YESTERDAY. \r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN\r\nPORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE WHILE IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nQUADRANT.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE OUTPUT FROM SHIPS. \r\n \r\nTHE RECON FIX ALONG WITH SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT\r\nLESTER HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/07 KNOTS. THIS A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE IS FORECAST AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL NHC P91E.  THE GFDL IS THE\r\nRIGHT-MOST OF THE TRACK PREDICTION GUIDANCE WHICH MOVES LESTER ON\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THEN BENDS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH APPROACHING THE LOWER\r\nU.S. WEST COAST.  BESIDES BEING INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nHISTORICALLY THE GFDL HAS NOT BEEN A VERY GOOD PERFORMER WITH EAST\r\nPACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. \r\n \r\nTHE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FORECAST TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY DIMINISHES THE\r\nTHREAT TO SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY\r\nDISCONTINUE THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY.  HOWEVER...ALL\r\nINTERESTS IN THE WATCH AND WARNING AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESTER SINCE COASTAL SECTIONS COULD STILL\r\nEXPERIENCE SOME EFFECTS OF THIS HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 14.3N  99.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.3N 100.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.4N 101.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 14.6N 102.9W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.0N 104.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N 108.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-10-19 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AS PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND NO CHANGE IS MADE TO INTENSITY...90 KTS...973 MB. SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nOUTPUT FROM SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/07 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE IS FORECAST AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  \r\n \r\nA THREAT TO SOUTHERN MEXICO STILL REMAINS AND THE GOVERNMENT OF\r\nMEXICO HAS DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS UNTIL\r\nLESTERS THREAT DIMINISHES.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 14.3N  99.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.3N 100.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N 102.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.7N 103.7W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 105.7W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 109.6W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-10-19 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY...COVERAGE...AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY. \r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED TO THE NORTHEAST AT THIS\r\nTIME.  AS LESTER CONTINUES FARTHER TO THE WEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW MAY AGAIN BECOME MORE FAVORABLE...BUT GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AROUND 8 OR 9 KNOTS. \r\nOBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION GUIDANCE AND THE 500 FLOW FORECAST FROM\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SUPPORT A CONTINUED GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS LESTER NEARS A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND\r\nBAROTROPIC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nAS A PRECAUTION...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 14.2N 100.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.3N 102.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 14.5N 103.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.7N 105.3W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 15.0N 107.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-10-19 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LESTER HAS MADE A COMEBACK\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH -80 DEG C TOPS NEAR/OVER THE CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB IS 90 KNOTS WHILE SAB AND\r\nAFGW ARE 77 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 85 KNOTS.\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPERIENCING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH\r\nIS INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  AS\r\nMENTIONED EARLIER THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD...BUT GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nLESTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KNOTS.  THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE 12Z FIXES\r\nHOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT FOR A FEW MORE PICTURES BEFORE MAKING ANY \r\nADJUSTMENT. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nKEEP IT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THEREAFTER AS LESTER APPROACHES A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS\r\nTHIS AND IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN\r\nCLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.  THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY\r\nAS THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...PORTIONS\r\nOF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO COULD EXPERIENCE SOME FRINGE EFFECTS\r\nOF LESTER...NAMELY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL\r\nTIDES.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 14.4N 101.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N 103.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 14.7N 105.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 106.7W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 108.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EAST/NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\n...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER\r\nNORTHERN GUATEMALA....WHICH IS INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. INDEED...PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED\r\nTO 80 KNOTS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE FORECASTING THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nINTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND WEAKEN BY 48 HOURS.  THE STATISTICAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...ACTUALLY STRENGTHENS\r\nLESTER SLIGHTLY...TO 90 KNOTS BY 24 HOURS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY\r\nSURROUNDING THE FUTURE UPPER ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nHELD AT 80 KNOTS UNTIL A SOLID TREND...UP OR DOWN...IS IDENTIFIED.\r\n \r\nAS SUSPECTED EARLIER...AND CONFIRMED BY SATELLITE FIXES THROUGH\r\nTHE DAY...THE CENTER OF LESTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/10 KNOTS. THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO WITH A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THEREAFTER AS LESTER\r\nNEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE MOSTLY\r\nDUE TO THE POSITION ADJUSTMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. THUS...THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL\r\nBE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE UNLESS LESTER THREATENS LAND AGAIN.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 14.7N 102.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 14.9N 104.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.4N 106.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 108.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 110.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-10-20 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EAST/NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\n...ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER\r\nNORTHERN GUATEMALA....WHICH IS INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATED SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING WAS LIKELY AND...LOW AND BEHOLD... DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nARE BACK UP.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KTS AND INCREASED TO 90\r\nKTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD PER SHIPS GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/08 KNOTS. MODEL GUIDANCE FALLS INTO\r\nTWO SCENARIOS.  BAMD...LBAR...UKMET AND GFDL BEGIN RECURVATURE\r\nAROUND 110 W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. \r\nREMAINING MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nUNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT IS NOT\r\nMODIFIED BY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  FORECAST CALLS FOR GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 14.9N 103.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 15.2N 104.6W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.7N 106.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 16.4N 108.1W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.3N 109.8W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 18.6N 111.7W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-10-20 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY\r\nEMBEDDED WELL WITHIN AN AREA OF QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK\r\nANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVE A CONSENSUS T5.0 WHICH IS EQUIVALENT\r\nTO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nAS NOTED EARLIER...THERE ARE 2 GENERAL TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS. \r\nONE IS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 2-3 DAYS AS SHOWN BY THE DEEP-\r\nLAYER BAM...LBAR AND THE GFDL MODEL.  THE OTHER IS A CONTINUED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE SHALLOW- TO MEDIUM-LAYER BAM\r\nAND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL.  THE LATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNAFFECTED BY A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 115W-120W NORTH OF 20N.  THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THIS TROUGH GRADUALLY LIFTING OUT IN 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS...WHICH WOULD ARGUE AGAINST A NORTHWARD TURN.  HOWEVER THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL DOES NOT LIFT THE TROUGH OUT QUITE AS MUCH.\r\nREGARDLESS...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE NEAR 110W-115W SO THAT LESTER SHOULD TURN AT LEAST\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN THAT VICINITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND IS ESSENTIALLY BETWEEN THE 2 AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 15.2N 104.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 15.7N 105.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N 107.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 108.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 109.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":23,"Date":"1998-10-20 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ESTIMATE\r\nOF WIND SPEED IS AGAIN 90 KT.\r\n \r\nLESTER IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WNW BUT HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT\r\n10 KT.  THE 00Z AVN SHOWED THE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST\r\nDEVELOPING SOUTHWARD A LITTLE MORE BEFORE LIFTING OUT...AND SO DOES\r\nTHE 06Z RUN.  IN ITS WAKE...A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY CURRENT REMAINS AT\r\n500 MB AND THIS SHOULD HELP INDUCE A GREATER NORTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nWITH TIME.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL PREDICTIONS.  IT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nFORECAST TRACK SCENARIOS DESCRIBED 6 HOURS AGO.\r\n \r\nNO CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 15.4N 105.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.9N 107.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.7N 108.9W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 17.7N 110.1W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 18.7N 111.1W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":24,"Date":"1998-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD 285/10 KT.  THE FUTURE TRACK WILL\r\nAPPARENTLY BE CONTROLLED BY THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER-LOW ALONG THE\r\nWEST COAST AND A NARROW RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHEN THE LOW WEAKENS AND\r\nLIFTS OUT TO THE NE.  IF LESTER PASSES 20N BY 48 HOURS...THEN\r\nRECURVATURE WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  IF NOT...THEN THE DEVELOPING RIDGE\r\nCOULD TURN LESTER AWAY FROM LAND ONCE AGAIN.  THE GFDL AND SEVERAL\r\nOTHER MODELS SEEM TO SHOW THIS SCENARIO WITH THEIR TRACKS BECOMING\r\nNW OR NNW AND THEN TURNING BACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST AT THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD.  AS OF NOW...NONE OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW LESTER\r\nREACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO OUR TRACK OF 6 HOURS AGO.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRUCTURE HAS OCCURRED TODAY WITH A PARTIALLY\r\nFILLED EYE NOTED ON SATELLITE PICTURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSTILL SUPPORT A 90 KT INITIAL WIND SPEED.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 15.8N 106.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 16.3N 108.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 17.2N 109.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 18.2N 110.7W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 19.2N 111.6W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":25,"Date":"1998-10-21 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND T-NUMBERS REMAIN\r\nAROUND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF\r\n90 KNOTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS INDICATED BY SHIFOR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DIVERGENT...WITH\r\nTRACKS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND TO THE NORTH.   AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE FUTURE TRACK OF LESTER IS CONTROLLED\r\nINITIALLY...BY THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER-LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST\r\nAND THEN BY A NARROW RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  LESTER COULD BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND MOVE\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL OR IT COULD\r\nTURN BACK TO THE WEST WHEN THE TROUGH MOVES OUT...AS INDICATED BY\r\nNOGAPS.  WE ARE NOT MAKING ANY CHANGES AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 16.0N 107.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 110.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N 111.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":26,"Date":"1998-10-21 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 21 1998\r\n\r\nLESTER APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...WITH THE CENTER\r\nEMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60 DEG CELSIUS. \r\nDVORAK ANALYSES FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER...THE SYNOPTIC\r\nANALYSIS BRANCH AND THE AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER AGENCY GIVE A\r\nCONSENSUS T5.0...I.E. 90 KNOTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCOMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE\r\nQUITE CLOSE TO THOSE GIVEN BY THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SCHEME.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...INCREASED SHEAR COULD\r\nCAUSE THE WEAKENING TO BE MORE RAPID THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY BUT IS STILL TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE TRACK PREDICTION GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE... WITH A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS IDEA...MORE OR\r\nLESS.  OBVIOUSLY THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT A POSSIBLE\r\nRECURVATURE...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO\r\nINDICATE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR.  \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 16.5N 107.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 109.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N 111.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":27,"Date":"1998-10-21 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 21 1998\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE NOW SEEN AT CIRRUS LEVEL JUST UPSTREAM FROM\r\nLESTER. THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS\r\nCIRCULAR...BUT AN EYE HAS REAPPEARED ON IR IMAGES AT 1400Z.   WHILE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 4.5 AT 1200Z...CI NUMBERS ARE\r\nSTILL 5.0...SO 90 KT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED...TO ABOUT 6 KT OVER THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS AND PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\nTHIS DECELERATION COULD BE EVIDENCE OF LESTER NEARING THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE RIDGE TO THE NE.  SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nCOULD BE EXPERIENCED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE\r\nDEVELOPS NEARER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THAT FEATURE WOULD FORCE A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AGAIN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE A RATHER\r\nSHARP BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST BY 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THESE TRENDS...BUT SHOWS A SMOOTHER TRACK THAN PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 16.6N 108.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N 110.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.3N 110.8W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 18.8N 111.9W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 114.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":28,"Date":"1998-10-21 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 21 1998\r\n \r\nA THIN LAYER OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS NOTED BUT IT DOESNT SEEM TO\r\nBE ADVERSELY AFFECTING LESTER AT THIS TIME.  THE EYE HAS PERSISTED\r\nFOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND T- AND CI-NUMBERS NOW MATCH AT 5.0...90\r\nKT.  \r\n \r\nTHE HEADING IS 290/7 KT.  THE 12Z AVN AGAIN SHOWS A RIDGE DEVELOPING\r\nTO THE NORTH OF LESTER...NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...IN THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  BY 72 HOURS A MORE PROMINENT HIGH IS SHOWN COVERING\r\nMUCH OF THE OFFSHORE AREA TO THE NW OF THE HURRICANE.  THESE\r\nFEATURES SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT...AS INDICATED BY\r\nMOST GUIDANCE MODELS.  NO THREAT TO LAND IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 16.8N 109.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.2N 109.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 17.6N 110.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.8N 111.4W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.1N 112.2W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":29,"Date":"1998-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 21 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER HAS A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AN 90 KNOTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS INDICATED.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF LESTER IN DAY\r\nOR TWO SO A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD THEN BEGIN.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS WHICH ALSO RESPOND TO THE BUILDING\r\nRIDGE BY MOVING LESTER SLOWLY WESTWARD.   \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.7N 109.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.7N 109.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 110.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":30,"Date":"1998-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE NET MOTION...WITH THE EYE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE JUST MEANDERING ABOUT.  ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS HAVE\r\nCOLLAPSED AT THIS TIME...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF LESTER.  THUS A SLOW...GENERALLY WESTWARD...MOVEMENT IS FORECAST\r\nTO BEGIN IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN AN\r\nAREA OF CLOUD TOPS OF -60 TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER GIVE AN\r\nESTIMATED CURRENT INTENSITY CLOSE TO 100 KNOTS.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS CALLED FOR UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST... MAINLY BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 16.8N 108.7W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N 108.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.6N 109.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 110.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 111.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 113.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":31,"Date":"1998-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER REMAINS STATIONARY.  THE 06Z AVN AGAIN SHOWS RIDGING TO THE\r\nNW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD STEER LESTER TOWARD THE\r\nWEST...OR SOUTH OF WEST...BEGINNING DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAD A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF RATHER COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS UNTIL AN HOUR AGO...WHEN THE EYE BEGAN TO SHRIVEL. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.5...OR ABOUT 100 KT...AS\r\nSHOWN IN THE ADVISORY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 16.9N 108.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.9N 108.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 16.7N 109.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N 110.4W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 111.6W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":32,"Date":"1998-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER HASNT MOVED TODAY.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT UPWELLING IS STARTING\r\nTO AFFECT THE SYSTEM.  WHILE THE EYE REMAINS APPARENT...THE INNER\r\nCORE AREA JUST NORTH OF THE EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED TODAY.  TAFB\r\nAND SAB NOW HAVE 4.5/5.5 AS DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS.  UNLESS LESTER/S\r\nDEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS...THE WIND SPEEDS COULD BE REDUCED ON THE\r\nNEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE SEEN FOR THE FUTURE TRACK.  A HIGH\r\nDEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST IS STILL EXPECTED TO STEER LESTER SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  THIS IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 16.8N 109.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.8N 109.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.4N 109.9W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N 110.9W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 112.1W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":33,"Date":"1998-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 22 1998\r\n \r\nLESTER APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING SINCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING\r\nDURING THE DAY...PERHAPS DUE TO UPWELLING.  T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING\r\nQUITE FAST BUT WIND ESTIMATES ARE STILL 80 TO 85 KNOTS. A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED AS SUGGESTED BY SHIFOR.\r\n \r\nLESTER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY AND A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK\r\nSHOULD BEGIN WHEN A HIGH DEVELOPS THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nTHIS IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 16.8N 109.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.8N 109.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.7N 110.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 112.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 114.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":34,"Date":"1998-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nLESTER HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS...MOST \r\nLIKELY IN RESPONSE TO UPWELLING. IN FACT...BASED ON THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY SCHEME THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nINSUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT AND TYPICALLY TROPICAL CYCLONES \r\nTAKE TIME TO UNWIND...A PROPERTY INCORPORATED INTO THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS.\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH LESTER BECOMING A TROPICAL \r\nSTORM BY 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLESTER HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS BUT SATELLITE \r\nFIXES OVER THE LAST 3-6 HOURS SUGGEST THAT A SOUTH TO SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWEST DRIFT HAS BEGUN. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY U.S. AIR FORCE \r\nAND U.S. NAVY DMSP FIXES/IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n200/02 KNOTS.  A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DRIFT SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTODAY WITH A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THEREAFTER AS HIGH DEVELOPS\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 16.4N 109.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.3N 109.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.1N 111.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 112.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":35,"Date":"1998-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE ONLY A FEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nDECREASING. LESTER IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT THIS\r\nTIME. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IS INTENSITY ARE LIKELY.\r\n\r\nLESTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BUT A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 15.6N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 110.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 110.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 113.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":36,"Date":"1998-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT\r\nWIND ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 60 KNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IS INTENSITY\r\nARE LIKELY.\r\n \r\nLESTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST BUT A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS.  HOWEVER...LATEST GDFL RUN SUGGESTS THAT LESTER WOULD TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A NEW TROUGH. WE\r\nPREFER NOT TO MAKE A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS\r\nTIME. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 15.3N 109.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 110.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 113.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":37,"Date":"1998-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 23 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n215/04 IS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF MOTION.  THE NOGAPS...UKMET AND\r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOW A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nGFDL AND LBAR SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH...APPARENTLY IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A 500 MB TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS.  SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLED FOR A\r\nSLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nCONSIDERABLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOMODATE THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND LBAR.\r\n \r\nA SMALL CDO TYPE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PUT THE WIND SPEED AT 55 KNOTS OR\r\nLESS.  ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 14.9N 110.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.6N 110.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N 111.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 15.3N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":38,"Date":"1998-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n \r\nIR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS ELONGATED FROM\r\nNW TO SE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE LOWER PART OF THAT\r\nPATTERN.  DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE\r\nAND...CORRESPONDINGLY...THE WIND SPEED IS CURRENTLY SET AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...A SMALL\r\nWESTWARD COMPONENT IS ANALYZED.  THE 00Z AVN SHOWS THAT THE NEXT\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL CUTOFF OVER\r\nNEVADA BY 72 HOURS.  MOST ASSOCIATED TRACK MODELS END THE WESTWARD\r\nPROGRESSION.  SOME SHOW RECURVATURE WITH THE FASTEST...BAMD AND\r\nLBAR...PUTTING LESTER OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT\r\n72 HOURS.  THIS SEEMS TOO FAST...BUT THE NHC FORECAST NOW SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THAT PENINSULA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE BAM OUTPUT IMPLIES INCREASING SW SHEAR.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR...RETAINING 45 KT.\r\n\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 15.0N 110.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 15.7N 112.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.6N 112.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.6N 113.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":39,"Date":"1998-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES DECREASED THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AT 12Z\r\nBUT A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DICTATES THAT I\r\nLEAVE THE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nINDICATES LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/04.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nSLOW FORWARD MOTION FOR THREE DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS A\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES CUTS OFF A LOW IN CALIFORNIA.  THE LBAR AND\r\nDEEP BAM ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST AS THESE TWO MODELS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 15.4N 111.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.6N 111.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.2N 112.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 111.6W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N 111.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":40,"Date":"1998-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED OR ELSE\r\nIT IS  HIDDEN UNDER THE CDO FEATURE WHICH IS ON THE WEAKENING STAGE\r\nOF A BURSTING PATTERN.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/05.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE\r\n12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWING A 500 MB LOW CUTTING OFF OVER CALIFORNIA.\r\nMOST MODELS SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS EXCEPT THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM WHICH ACCELERATE THE STORM\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMLAR\r\nTO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS...THE BURSTING CDO\r\nPATTERN INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER\r\nWHICH WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COULD BE ENCOUNTERED...RESULTING IN\r\nSOME WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 15.3N 112.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.6N 112.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.3N 113.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N 113.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.2N 113.3W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":41,"Date":"1998-10-25 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 24 1998\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME EXPOSED FOR SEVERAL\r\nHOURS THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...A NEW CDO FEATURE IS BEING CREATED\r\nWITH A NEW BURSTING PATTERN.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09.\r\nTHE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING FORECAST AND THIS MAY BE THE\r\nBEGINNING OF RECUVATURE TO NORTH.  GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED\r\nSINCE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MOST MODELS SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nOF MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS EXCEPT THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM WHICH\r\nACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS...HOWEVER...THE BURSTING CDO\r\nPATTERN INDICATES THAT WINDS COULD BE STRONGER.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 16.4N 113.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 114.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 114.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.9N 114.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N 112.8W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 23.1N 109.9W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":42,"Date":"1998-10-25 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 40 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN VARIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED\r\nSHEAR WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09.  HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\n...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET...ALL INDICATE A SLOW DOWN AS STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WEAKEN.  OUR CURRENT TRACK IS ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY BASED\r\nON THIS AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE\r\nSHALLOW/MID LAYER BAMS.  IF LESTER WERE TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nSTRONGER THAN FORECAST...A MORE RAPID RECURVATURE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST COULD OCCUR...SIMILAR TO THE DEEP LAYER BAM.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 16.9N 114.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 114.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.2N 115.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 18.7N 115.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 115.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 115.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":43,"Date":"1998-10-25 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nTHE 06Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST WHICH SHOWS VERY WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE STORM.  THE LBAR AND BAM DEEP MODELS\r\nCONINUE TO SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH EAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWING A SLOW\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nA CDO FEATURE CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE STORM.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 17.2N 114.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 114.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.6N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.2N 115.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":44,"Date":"1998-10-25 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE LBAR\r\nAND BAM DEEP MODELS CONINUE TO SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION.  THIS SUGGESTS WEAKENING AND THE WIND\r\nSPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 17.5N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 115.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lester","Adv":45,"Date":"1998-10-26 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST SUN OCT 25 1998\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS MOSTLY GONE...AND...ALTHOUGH IT MAY\r\nINTERMITTENTLY RE-APPEAR NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...LESTER IS ON A WEAKENING TREND.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\n30 KNOTS...SO THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  LESTER\r\nSHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR LESS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/05.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF\r\nTHE MEDIUM/SHALLOW LAYER STEERING MODELS...BUT NEARLY SO FAST.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 17.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.2N 116.8W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lester","Adv":46,"Date":"1998-10-26 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST MON OCT 26 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nWITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nALTHOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS HAVE COLLAPSED AND THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFDL...NAVY NOGAPS...AND\r\nUKMET...ALL SHOW LITTLE OVERALL MOTION THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS WELL.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 17.4N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 115.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 17.5N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lester","Adv":47,"Date":"1998-10-26 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST MON OCT 26 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE IS ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL\r\nWINDS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE SYSTEM VERY WEAK. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND THE AVN...SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION IN THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE MODELS THAT IMPOSE A DEEP-LAYER STEERING\r\nINDICATE A NORTH NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM\r\nDISSIPATES. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION LESTER UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS. \r\n  \r\nDEMARIA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 17.6N 115.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.8N 115.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.3N 115.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.6N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-10-16 12:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED A\r\nCOUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST OF MANZANILLO HAS ENOUGH SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND BEST ESTIMATE IS 330/08.\r\nMODELS ARE SUGGESTING TRACKS BETWEEN NORTH NORTHWEST AND NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE\r\nAND CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nTHEREAFTER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING OR WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1200Z 19.3N 108.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 109.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 109.3W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N 108.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nA LARGE CDO PATTERN IS DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A\r\nCORE AREA OF CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN -80C.  DVORAK T-\r\nNUMBERS WERE UP TO 2.5 AT 1200 UTC...AND THE WIND SPEED AT ADVISORY\r\nTIME IS ESTIMATED AS 45 KT FOR WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM MADELINE.\r\n \r\nTHE NNW HEADING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IS RETAINED...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN MAKES IDENTIFYING THE CENTER RATHER DIFFICULT.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH BYPASSING\r\nMADELINE...BUT A FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NE.  MOST GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOW THIS.  THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAT WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOW\r\nREQUIRED.\r\n  \r\nTHE LARGE SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS\r\nALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A\r\nCONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE\r\nTO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES.\r\n\r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 19.5N 108.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 108.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 23.4N 108.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 25.1N 108.1W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 28.0N 106.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE RECENT WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS ON SATELLITE PICTURES IS SOMEWHAT\r\nDECEIVING AS DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE...NOW TO 3.5\r\nAT TAFB.  SHIP 3FMH7 ABOUT 40 NM NE OF THE CENTER REPORTED 50 KT\r\nWINDS.  SO...THE ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 340 DEGREE HEADING PERSISTS WITH THE SPEED HAVING DECREASED TO\r\nABOUT 5 KT.  THE 12Z AVN STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND SWEEPING MADELINE NORTHEASTWARD IN\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE AVN-BASED TRACK MODELS AND NHC FORECAST\r\nARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THAT AS WELL.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS\r\nALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A\r\nCONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE\r\nTO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 19.7N 108.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.4N 108.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 21.6N 108.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 23.2N 108.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 24.7N 108.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 27.5N 106.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 1998\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE\r\nLAST SIX HOURS SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KT.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE MAKES MADELINE A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL AS DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF MADELINE AND ITS RATHER LARGE\r\nCENTER...FIXES HAVE MADE IT APPEAR THAT THE CENTER WAS MOVING\r\nSLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nNORTH/360/04 KNOTS.  THE AVN STILL SHOWS A SECONDARY SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND SWEEPING MADELINE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE AVN-BASED TRACK MODELS\r\nAND NHC FORECAST ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT THAT AS WELL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST TRACK BUT SLIGHTLY\r\nEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS\r\nALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A\r\nCONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE\r\nTO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 19.8N 108.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N 108.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.7N 107.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.5N 107.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 25.1N 107.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 28.1N 105.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nMADELINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND THE CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED AT THIS TIME.  WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS BUT THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BRINGS MADELIN OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\nSO STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nMADELIN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A\r\nNORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.  MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nBRING MADELINE NORTHWARD BUT AT A DIFFERENT SPEED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND BRINGS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THEN OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nTHEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LOS MOCHIS TO\r\nMAZATLAN.  THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN SO WATCHES AND WARNING FOR BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA REMAIN AT THIS TIME.    \r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THAT MADELINE COULD\r\nBRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A CONSIDERABLE AREA OVER MEXICO...\r\nAND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE U.S. SOUTH-CENTRAL OR\r\nSOUTHWESTERN STATES.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 19.8N 108.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.4N 108.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N 108.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N 108.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N 107.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 28.0N 105.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MADELINE HAS MOVED TOWARD 075/6 KT.  NONE\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FORECAST THIS MOTION.  REGARDLESS..IF THE\r\nMOTION PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS THEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL HIT THE COAST.  THEREFORE...A REVISION OF THE WARNINGS HAS BEEN\r\nMADE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE\r\nLONGER TERM PROJECTIONS FOR MADELINE TO BE CARRIED TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nOR NE BY THE NEXT TROUGH TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ONLY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION.  EVEN SO...MADELINE IS DEVELOPING WHAT COULD\r\nBE AN EYE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PUT THE CYCLONE NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO\r\n60 KT.  MORE DETAILS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON WHEN A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST MOVEMENT AND WINDS ALOFT STILL SUGGEST THAT MADELINE\r\nCOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS TO A CONSIDERABLE AREA OVER\r\nMEXICO... AND CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE U.S.\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL OR SOUTHWESTERN STATES.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 19.9N 107.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N 106.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 22.2N 106.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 23.1N 106.3W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N 106.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER\r\nAND WITH T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...MADELINE IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  PERHAPS A BETTER MEASURE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE PROVIDED SHORTLY BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO\r\nARE NOW ARRIVING AT THE SYSTEM.  RECON FOUND 60 KT FLT LEVEL WINDS\r\nON NORTHEAST SIDE AND SHOULD FIND HIGHER WINDS ON SOUTHWEST SIDE\r\nWHERE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS.\r\n \r\nMADELINE APPEARS TO BE HEADING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AROUND\r\n4 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE E-W RIDGE AXIS.  THE 12Z AVN SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH NEARING THE BAJA PENINSULA WITHIN 36 HOURS...BUT...\r\nINTERESTINGLY...SHOWS NO MOTION FOR MADELINE DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS AND THEN LOSES TRACK OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO 6 HOURS AGO AND TO THE CURRENT GFDL...BAMM...P91E...\r\nAND CLIP.  THEY INDICATE A NORTHWARD MOTION OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS REMAIN A THREAT.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 20.2N 107.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.9N 106.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N 106.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.1N 106.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 24.3N 106.8W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 26.5N 106.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 1998\r\n \r\nRECON MEASURED A 989 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWIND OF 70 KNOTS ON SOUTHWEST LEG. COMMENTS FROM THE RECON COMMANDER\r\nWERE THAT THE VERTICAL MOTIONS IN THE DEEP CONVECTION WERE GIVING\r\nTHEM A VERY BUMPY RIDE.  SINCE THE RECON LEFT TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nGETTING COOLER TOPS AND T-NUMBERS OF 4.5.  THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 985 MB AND THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 70 KTS.\r\n \r\nMADELINE CONTINUES TO CREEP TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AROUND 4 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS LOCATED VERY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nE-W RIDGE AXIS.  THE WATER-VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA FROM THE WEST. \r\nTHIS IS THE FEATURE THAT THE AVN MODEL SUGGESTS WILL NOT MOVE\r\nMADELINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...BUT OTHER MODELS DO...SUCH AS\r\nGFDL...BAMM...P91E...AND CLIP.  THEY INDICATE A NORTHWARD MOTION OF\r\n5 TO 10 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION\r\nALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS REMAIN A THREAT.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 20.3N 107.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 20.8N 106.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 21.8N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N 106.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.2N 106.2W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 26.7N 105.4W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-10-18 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n\r\nAN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT ALTHOUGH RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGES SHOW\r\nA BIT OF A WARM SPOT NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER.  THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES TO BE ASYMMETRIC WITH COLDEST TOPS PRIMARILY OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY STRONG EXCEPT\r\nTO THE EAST.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE\r\nMADELINE REACHES THE COAST.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD...010/5.  THE 06Z RUN OF THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS MADELINE NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD BUT...BASED\r\nON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE MOST REASONABLE SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEND\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL NHC91.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 20.8N 106.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 21.6N 106.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 22.9N 106.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 24.2N 106.2W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N 106.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 28.0N 105.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-10-18 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGW SUGGEST THAT MADELINE\r\nHAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 010/2 KNOTS.  THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSHOW SOME SCATTER.  THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE AVIATION\r\nWHICH BRINGS MADELINE WEST THEN NORTHWEST TOWARDS BAJA WHILE THE\r\nGFDL AND CLIPER KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING ON A SLOW GENERAL NORTHERLY\r\nHEADING. AS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY THIS SEEM LIKE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE\r\nSOLUTION GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nGOES ALONG WITH SLOW NORTH TRACK WITH A BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED\r\nAROUND MADELINE THE COLDEST TOPS...-80 DEG C...REMAIN PRIMARILY\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHILE RESTRICTED OVER THE EAST.\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE MADELINE REACHES\r\nTHE COAST.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 20.6N 106.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 106.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 22.3N 106.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 23.3N 106.3W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N 106.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N 105.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-10-18 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n \r\nTHE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST SENT\r\nA VORTEX MESSAGE BACK FROM ITS PENETRATION OF MADELINE.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 76 KNOTS WITH A 73 KNOT SURFACE WIND AND A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 MB RECORDED BY A GPS DROPSONDE.  \r\nTHIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE-BASED DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.    \r\n\r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED A CLOSED 15 NMI EYE WHILE\r\nSATELLITE DATA IS NOT AS CONCLUSIVE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 360/04 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES MADELINE ON \r\nA SLOW NORTHWARD COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A BEND TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. THIS SEEMS LIKE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE\r\nSOLUTION GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH CLIPER AND LBAR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST .\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 21.1N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 21.8N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 22.6N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 23.4N 106.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 27.0N 106.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-10-19 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 1998\r\n \r\nAS THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MADE ITS\r\nLAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF MADELINE IT REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 980 MB.  DOWN 2 MB FROM THE PREVIOUS PASS.  THIS IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE 979 MB REPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES SEVERAL HOURS\r\nLATER.  SO THE PRESSURE IS SET AT 979 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 75 KNOTS.  NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST MOVES MADELINE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nWITH A BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. THIS SEEMS LIKE\r\nTHE MOST PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND LBAR...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST .\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 21.3N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 21.9N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 22.6N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 23.4N 106.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 24.4N 106.4W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 26.9N 105.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-10-19 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO NO LARGE CHANGES ARE MADE TO\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE...SLOWLY NORTHWARD.   THE STEERING OF MADELINE\r\nDEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE ROLES OF A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nTO THE VICINITY OF THE HURRICANE.  IF THE FORMER FEATURE\r\nDOMINATES...THEN MADELINE WOULD ACCELERATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nIF THE LATTER IS MORE INFLUENTIAL...THEN A SLOWER NORTH TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD DEVELOP.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD OPTION AS SHOWN BY SOME\r\nOF THE MODELS SUCH AS THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE BAROTROPIC..AND A NORTH\r\nTO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS SHOWN BY NOGAPS AND THE GFDL MODEL.  \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT WITH ONLY A\r\nSMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND EVIDENCE OF SOUTHERLY SHEARING. \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS. VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  NO\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 21.9N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 22.5N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 25.5N 106.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 27.5N 106.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Madeline","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-10-19 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n \r\nLOCATING THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF MADELINE IS A DIFFICULT TASK\r\nWITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE HURRICANE HAS DIMINISHED AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS A RESULT OF SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...PER IMAGERY AND CIMSS ANALYSES.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...\r\nAND ARE THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE WINDS TO 65 KNOTS.  THIS\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD UNTIL LANDFALL FOR NOW...FORECAST IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS...UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND CAN BE ESTABLISHED THROUGH\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/04 KNOTS. THE SATELLITE\r\nFIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHILE MAINTAINING THE SAME\r\nGENERAL DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOTION.  THERE STILL IS UNCERTAINLY\r\nSURROUNDING WHICH FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING OF MADELINE...\r\nI.E. THE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA OR THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE WESTWARD POSITION ADJUSTMENT SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE \r\nLATTER FEATURE AS THE MORE INFLUENTIAL...WITH A SLOWER NORTH TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 22.3N 106.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 23.0N 106.9W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 23.9N 107.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 107.1W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 27.5N 106.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-10-19 18:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUE TO DOWNGRADE MADELINE FROM\r\nA HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1800Z 22.5N 107.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 23.0N 106.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 23.9N 107.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 107.1W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 27.5N 106.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n \r\nMADELINE HAS COLLAPSED...NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND HENCE\r\nUNCLASSIFIABLE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  THE WEAKENING IS DUE \r\nIN LARGE PART TO SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 35 KNOTS...A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM.  THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THE NEXT ADVISORY UNLESS\r\nTHERE IS A STRONG RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION. THIS TIME YESTERDAY WE\r\nHAD A 980 MB HURRICANE WITH 73 KT SURFACE WINDS.  THIS SYSTEM SHOWS\r\nONCE AGAIN THE DIFFICULTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTING...IN THIS CASE\r\nRAPID WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST \r\nBRINGS THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST THEN NORTH HEADING THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHALLOW BAMD.  THIS TRACK BRINGS\r\nWHAT/S LEFT OF MADELINE INLAND BY 48 HOURS...IF IT SURVIVES THAT\r\nLONG.\r\n\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.7N 108.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.9N 109.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 26.5N 110.2W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 28.0N 110.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 31.0N 110.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Madeline","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-10-20 00:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO DOWNGRADE MADELINE FROM A\r\nTROPICAL STORM TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE TRACK REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0000Z 23.7N 108.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 25.2N 109.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 27.1N 110.2W    20 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 29.0N 110.3W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Madeline","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-10-20 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 19 1998\r\n\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT MADELINES CIRCULATION AND\r\nTHWART ANY CHANCE OF REDEVELOPMENT.  FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE OF THE\r\nSAME SO MADELINE IS DECLARED DISSIPATED AND HAS BECOME A LOW LEVEL\r\nCLOUD SWIRL IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 24.0N 109.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-06-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA RE-\r\nFORMED NEAR AN AREA OF CONVECTION LAST NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAPID\r\nORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0\r\nAND T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nBEING 055/11. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES...\r\nWITH THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nBUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE LBAR AND\r\nA98E MOVING THE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE BAMS MOVING IT NW. THE\r\nGFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM NEAR 29N58W...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFDL ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION EXHIBITS A GOOD CLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...\r\nWITH CONSIDERABLE BANDING SURROUNDING A RAGGED CDO. IT IS LIKELY THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...IF IT HAS\r\nNOT DONE SO ALREADY. THE LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 72 HOUR POSITIONS\r\nOF BAMS AND BAMD SUGGEST INCREASING SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 24-25C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST INTENSITY THUS LEVELS OFF AT 50 KT AFTER\r\n36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 27.6N  57.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 28.4N  56.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 29.1N  56.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.3N  56.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  56.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 29.5N  56.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-06-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE\r\nT2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  HOWEVER...\r\nCONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE HAS DIMINISHED AND THE OVERALL BANDING\r\nIS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  WITH SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES NEAR 25 DEGREES...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE PROBABLY\r\nSTILL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS STILL IMPRESSIVE AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL\r\nLIKELY.\r\n\r\nA CENTRAL WARM SPOT HAS ASSISTED IN FIXING THE CENTER ON IR\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED TO\r\n040/5.  THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES...WITH\r\nTHE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS REMAIN HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE LBAR AND A98E MOVING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE GFDL MOVING IT\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS SHARPLY AS THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 28.1N  57.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 28.7N  56.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 29.4N  55.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 29.9N  56.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 30.2N  56.2W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  56.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-06-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/04.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nA HIGH PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS.  THE LBAR AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE EAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOW NO EAST/WEST\r\nMOTION OR A SLOW WESTWARD COMPONENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE\r\nGFLD MODEL WHICH SHOWS A VERY SLOW NORTH TO NORTHWEST DRIFT FOR\r\nTHREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY...WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS IS NOT WELL\r\nORGANIZED NOR IS THE BANDING WELL DEFINED.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPMENT THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 28.3N  57.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 28.6N  57.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  57.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 29.4N  57.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 29.8N  57.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 30.5N  57.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-06-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nOVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  MOREOVER...DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nREFLECT THE DEVELOPMENT TREND AS BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW HAVE A CI\r\nNUMBER OF 2.5.  THUS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BEING UPGRADED \r\nTO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/03 KNOTS.  THE FIXES FROM TAFB\r\n...SAB AND AFGWC ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAS DRIFTED NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONSIDERABLE SCATTER WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS\r\nSHOW A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST HEADING. THE GFDL FOLLOWS THE\r\nLATTER SCENARIO THRU 24 HRS THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE WEST THEN\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE REASONING BEHIND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS \r\nSLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nAND STILL HOLDS TO A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT THRU 72 HRS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS ARLENE TO 45 KNOTS BY 24 HRS WITH\r\nNO CHANGE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 28.4N  57.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.7N  57.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 29.2N  57.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 29.6N  58.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  58.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 30.5N  59.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-06-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS THE\r\nCENTER IS NOW JUST UNDERNEATH A SMALL CDO. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND\r\n35 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nRAISED TO 40 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS ARLENE TO 45\r\nKNOTS BY 12 HRS WITH NO CHANGE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB SHOW THAT ARLENE\r\nHAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/02\r\nKNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN\r\nTWO MID- TO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE JUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC\r\nCOAST AND ANOTHER ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.\r\n \r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE NOW SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS...ONE WHICH\r\nMOVES ARLENE NORTH/NORTHWEST (UKMET..AVN) AND ANOTHER WHICH\r\nSHOWS AN INITIAL NORTHEAST (LBAR) OR NORTHWEST (BAMD) MOTION\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. THE GFDL\r\nFOLLOWS THE FORMER SOLUTION THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING\r\nWEST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET THEY ALL AGREE ON A SLOW\r\nFORWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A NORTH/NORTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 28.6N  57.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  57.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 29.4N  57.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 29.8N  57.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 30.3N  58.3W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 31.0N  59.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-06-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nCDO IS STILL IN PLACE AND CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN IT.  THE\r\nSYSTEM MAINTAINS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND HAS NOT BEEN SHEARED\r\nBY APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 55 KT AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY AND AIR\r\nFORCE GLOBAL IS AT 35 KT.  TAFB METEOROLOGIST HAS NOTED THAT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MAIN INFLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS IS FROM THE\r\nSOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AND LITTLE OR NO INFLOW FROM STABLE AIR IN HIGH\r\nTO THE NORTH...WHICH HAS BLOCKED THE SYSTEM.  THIS MAY BE MAIN\r\nREASON WHY ARLENE HAS BEEN ABLE TO INTENSIFY OVER THESE COOL SSTS. \r\nTHUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT. ARLENE IS\r\nINTENSIFYING AT THE RATE OF 5 KNOTS EVERY 6-HOURS SO 12 HOUR\r\nFORECAST IS 55 KNOTS.  INTENSITY FORECAST TO 60 KNOTS AT 24 HOURS\r\nAND HELD STEADY AT THIS VALUE.  HOWEVER...IF TREND CONTINUES...MAY\r\nHAVE A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB SHOW THAT ARLENE\r\nHAS BEEN WOBBLING NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/03\r\nKNOTS. HOWEVER...LATEST IR ANIMATION SUGGESTS A WOBBLE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ARE STARTING TO AGREE ON DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR\r\nARLENE.  UKMET..AVN..NOGAPS..GFDL..BAMM AND BAMS MOVE SYSTEM SLOWLY\r\nIN A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION OUT TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...DIFFERENT ACCELERATIONS IN SPEED CAUSE TRACKS TO DIVERGE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A\r\nNORTH/NORTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 29.2N  57.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 29.5N  57.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 29.8N  57.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 30.2N  58.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 30.4N  58.6W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 30.8N  59.6W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-06-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7 \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL INTENSITY...\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE REMAINS HEALTHY WITH AN\r\nEXPANDING CDO...TOPS TO -70C...AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE IMPROVING ELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE-BASED\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 KT AND 45 KT\r\n...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE BUMPED UP TO 50 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK SHOWS A NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nDRIFT THRU 24 HOURS WITH A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER. THIS \r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN SOLUTION. \r\n\r\nWITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRACK THE 00Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS\r\nARLENE TO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 29.1N  57.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 29.3N  57.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 29.6N  57.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  57.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 30.4N  58.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 31.0N  59.5W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-06-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS BEING\r\nINFLUENCED BY VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE ARE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS\r\nINDICATES NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KNOTS OVER THE SYSTEM. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AHEAD\r\nOF ARLENE.  GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...I HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS...\r\nINFRARED...FIXES AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/2.  ARLENE\r\nIS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT...AND THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN DIVERGING...WITH THE GFDL AND\r\nBAM GUIDANCE INDICATING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...NOGAPS AND\r\nTHE AVN A NORTHWEST MOTION...AND THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS/AVN SOLUTIONS.  \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 29.2N  58.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 29.3N  58.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 29.6N  59.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 29.9N  59.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 30.2N  60.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 30.8N  61.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-06-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE OR\r\nESTIMATED INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS NEARLY EXPOSED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE DENSE OVERCAST.  DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE\r\nHAS BEEN PULSATING DURING THE DAY.  AGAIN...THERE IS A SLIGHT\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA\r\nMAY RELAX.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE\r\nIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR\r\nTHE LATEST STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...\r\nSHIPS...OUTPUT. \r\n\r\nARLENE HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND UNABLE TO MOVE MUCH TOWARD THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP\r\nSO AS TO ALLOW A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nIN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN IS QUITE DIFFERENT FROM ITS\r\nPREDECESSOR AND TURNS ARLENE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS.  THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD EVEN\r\nSOONER.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nIS IN BETWEEN THE LATEST MEDIUM BAM AND AVN MODEL TRACKS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 29.1N  59.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.3N  59.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 29.6N  60.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 30.0N  60.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 30.4N  61.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 31.5N  62.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-06-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/04.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW THE STORM EMBEDDED IN A RIDGE.  GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A\r\nSMIDGEON TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS ARE THE NOGAPS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  A TROUGH IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE STORM IN THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS AND COULD CAUSE SOME NORTHWARD ACCELERATION NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS IS INDICATED BY THE UKMET MODEL BUT NOT\r\nBY THE NOGAPS OR GFDL.\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM\r\nAND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 3.0 CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE KGWC ESTIMATE IS 2.5.  U.S. NAVY AND\r\nECMWF SSM/I AND SCATTEROMETER WIND SPEEDS AROUND THE STORM SHOW WIND\r\nSPEEDS OF LESS THAN 50 KNOTS.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nDECREASED 5 KNOTS TO 45 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO DECREASED 5 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFLD GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 1000\r\nMB IS INCREASED TO 1009 MB BASED ON SHIP REPORTS WHICH SHOW\r\nSURROUNDING PRESSURES TO BE RATHER HIGH.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 29.3N  59.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 29.4N  60.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 29.8N  61.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 30.3N  61.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 31.0N  62.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 32.5N  63.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-06-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999\r\n\r\nARLENE CONTINUES MOVING WEST WITH THE INITIAL MOTION OF 275/05.\r\nLARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH BROAD\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTHEAST OF ARLENE PRODUCING A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST/NORTH DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS WOULD TAKE\r\nTHE CENTER OF ARLENE NEAR OR EAST OF BERMUDA. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nIS MORE DIVERSE...WITH THE BAMS PASSING JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA...THE\r\nGFDL AND BAMM PASSING JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA...AND THE BAMD...A98E\r\nAND LBAR MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERALL GUIDANCE AND\r\nSHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT...\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nTHE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 2.5\r\nFROM AFWA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE QUESTION NOW IS HOW MUCH SHEAR WILL ARLENE ENCOUNTER? THE LATEST\r\nWATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST 10-20 KT WESTERLIES WEST OF THE CENTER...\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATING LESS THAN 15 KT OF SHEAR THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS. AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A DECREASE IN SHEAR...\r\nWITH A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING WEST OF BERMUDA BUILDING A RIDGE\r\nNEAR ARLENE. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE MODELS INDICATE STRONG\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR DEVELOPING NEAR ARLENE BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII AT THE 36-72 HOUR FORECAST TIMES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED\r\nON THE PREDICTED NORTHWARD TURN AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.\r\n\r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR BERMUDA WILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 29.3N  60.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 29.4N  61.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 29.7N  61.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 30.5N  62.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 31.5N  63.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 33.0N  64.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-06-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUN 14 1999\r\n \r\nARLENE CONTINUES MOVING WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/05.\r\nLARGER SCALE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH BROAD\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTHEAST OF ARLENE PRODUCING A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH...DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS\r\nWOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF ARLENE NEAR OR EAST OF BERMUDA.  NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE IS MORE DIVERSE...WITH THE BAMS PASSING JUST EAST\r\nOF BERMUDA...AND THE GFDL AND BAMM PASSING JUST SOUTH.  THE GFDL IN\r\nFACT BRINGS THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ISLAND.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\nTHE 36 HOUR POSITION IS WITHIN 120 MILES OF BERMUDA...NECESSITATING\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER\r\nREMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE LATEST INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 45 KT.  THE SHIPS AND AVN MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR\r\nMAY LESSEN TEMPORARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE COMBINATION OF\r\nINCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nDICTATES ONLY MINIMAL STRENGTHENING IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 29.4N  60.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 29.5N  61.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 30.1N  62.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 30.9N  63.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 32.0N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 33.5N  64.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-06-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS BEGUN A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE NOW 310/5.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nARLENE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...WITH A VERY TIGHT\r\nCLUSTERING OF THE GFDL...AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAMS.  THE\r\nNOGAPS IS AN OUTLIER WITH RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFDL.\r\n \r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF ARLENE FROM\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS HAVE BEEN USED TO HELP ESTIMATE\r\nTHE WIND RADII.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ITSELF ON THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF AN EXPOSED CENTER.  THE LATEST INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nUNCHANGED.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED\r\nRELATIVELY CONSTANT OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO...IMPLYING THAT THE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING\r\nBUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.  THE SHIPS AND AVN\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN TEMPORARILY DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD DICTATES ONLY MINIMAL STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 30.0N  61.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 30.4N  61.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 31.0N  62.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 31.8N  63.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 32.5N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  64.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-06-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WELL TO\r\nTHE EAST.  THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CENTERS AS SAB AND TAFB\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES ARE 50 NMI APART.  THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF THE\r\nMOTION APPEARING TO BE ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  GOING WITH\r\nTHE TAFB POSITION GIVES A MOTION OF 300/04 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.\r\nTHE 18Z AVIATION MODEL IS NOT YET AVAILABLE.  THE 12Z RUN SHOWS A\r\nMAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING TO THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 72\r\nHOURS AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD\r\nWITH CONTINUED RATHER SLOW MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS BRINGS\r\nTHE CENTER TO WITHIN 60 NMI OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS A GOOD IDEA.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND U.S. NAVY FNMOC SSM/I WIND SPEEDS\r\nINDICATE MAX WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nMODEL SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 29.9N  61.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 30.2N  62.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 31.0N  62.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 31.7N  63.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 32.5N  63.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 35.0N  64.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-06-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF ARLENE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN IR IMAGERY.\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE POSITION IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES. SOME FURTHER RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS ARRIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/04...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...WITH CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT AS\r\nTO WHETHER ARLENE WILL PASS EAST OR WEST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TAKES\r\nTHE CENTER OVER BERMUDA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z GFDL IS\r\nMUCH FASTER TURNING ARLENE NORTHWARD THAN THE 18Z RUN AND THUS LOOKS\r\nA LITTLE SUSPECT. \r\n \r\nEVEN WITH THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER...IT REMAINS EXPOSED\r\nWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED TO THE POINT\r\nWHERE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH SHEAR TO HAMPER INTENSIFICATION.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nALTHOUGH IT IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT ARLENE MAY MEET STRONG SHEAR BEYOND 48 HOURS AND\r\nWEAKEN.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE AND\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO REACH ARLENE AROUND 11Z. \r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA. THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA SHOULD HELP DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nAROUND THE CENTER...AND THUS WHEN WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.\r\n\r\nBEVEN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 29.7N  61.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 29.9N  62.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 30.4N  63.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 31.4N  64.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 33.0N  65.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 36.0N  65.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-06-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES THIS\r\nMORNING INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND THE CENTER MAY BE REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  \r\n\r\nARLENE IS IN A VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT CUTOFF FROM THE\r\nWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF\r\nARLENE WILL DIG SOUTHWARD STRONGLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT...A SECOND TROUGH APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST AT 72 HOURS\r\nSHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO RECURVE ARLENE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE MEDIUM BAM TAKING ARLENE\r\nTO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...AND THE GFDL TO THE EAST.  OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT SLOWER...AND A BLEND\r\nOF THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM.  WITH THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA IS NOT YET NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 AND\r\n3.0...RESPECTIVELY...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 51 KT AT A FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL OF 1000 FT.  WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE\r\nCONVECTION...CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.  SHIPS AND AVN\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS DECREASING AND SO\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 55 KT IN 24 HOURS.  LONGER\r\nTERM...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 29.6N  61.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 29.8N  61.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 30.1N  62.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 30.9N  63.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 32.0N  64.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  64.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-06-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT ARLENE IS ONCE\r\nAGAIN LOSING ITS BATTLE WITH SHEAR...WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 3.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE\r\nAGAIN EARLY THIS EVENING TO SEE WHETHER THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY\r\nOVER THE NEXT 36 H...IMPLYING A BRIEF INTERVAL OF FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO BRIEF TO ALLOW\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  LONGER TERM...THE INCREASING SHEAR AND\r\nCOOLER SSTS SHOULD PROVE FATAL.\r\n\r\nAFTER REMAINING ALMOST STATIONARY THIS MORNING...ARLENE HAS RESUMED\r\nA SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE CENTER IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY\r\nDEFINED...BUT OUR BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/3.  THERE WAS\r\nNO 12Z GFDL TODAY...BUT REMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE WILL\r\nREMAIN EAST OF BERMUDA.  OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM...IN ANTICIPATION OF\r\nA MOSTLY SHEARED SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 30.1N  61.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 30.4N  61.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 30.9N  62.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 31.8N  63.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 33.0N  64.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 37.0N  63.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-06-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUN 15 1999\r\n \r\nA USAF RESERVE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE STORM RECENTLY.  BASED ON THIS FIX\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/03 ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS NOT THAT WELL DEFINED.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AFTER 48 HOURS AS A MAJOR TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES.  ONLY THE NOGAPS REMAINS SLOW WESTNORTHWESTWARD THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS AND THIS WAS FROM THE 12Z RUN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A SMIDGEON TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nACELLERATES THE STORM TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 55 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET ALTITUDE IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT AND DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. \r\nSO THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.  OTHERWISE\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT\r\nFOR ADDING 5 KNOTS AT ALL FORECAST PERIODS AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IN 36 HOURS AS COLDER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KNOTS RADIUS IS INCREASED TO 125 NMI IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.  THIS IS EXTENDED TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT IN 24 HOURS AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STORM.\r\n\r\nBERMUDA IS RETAINING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 30.1N  62.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 30.4N  62.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 31.1N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 32.2N  63.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 33.5N  64.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 38.0N  64.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-06-16 06:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO POST TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS AS REQUESTED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA. ALL FORECASTS\r\nARE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0600Z 30.2N  62.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 30.4N  62.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 31.1N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 32.2N  63.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 33.5N  64.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 38.0N  64.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-06-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS DECREASED DURING THE\r\nNIGHT...AND IS ALSO LESS WIDESPREAD AND VIGOROUS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.\r\nTHIS COULD MEAN THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THE NEW HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nPLANE DUE INTO THE STORM AROUND 12Z MAY VERY WELL FIND A WEAKER\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH CIRRUS IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...ARLENE APPEARS\r\nTO BE MOVING 300/4 KT. THE STORM IS SLOWLY CURVING AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALL GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A WESTERLY TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...ALTHOUGH IT IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MODELS MOVING ARLENE TOO QUICKLY\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATICAL. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE. NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP OVER ARLENE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR\r\nMAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE SAME WEAKENING AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nEXCEPT TO MAKE ARLENE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ON\r\nTHE BASIS OF THE FORECAST MOTION...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT THE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 30.3N  62.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 30.6N  63.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 31.6N  64.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 33.4N  64.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 36.0N  64.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  62.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-06-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUN 16 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT ARLENE CONTINUES\r\nTO HAVE AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF A LIMITED AREA\r\nOF MODEST CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\n3.0...45 KT...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY\r\nFOUND 46 KT EAST OF THE CENTER FLYING AT 1000 FT.  INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS REDUCED TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS.  THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM AND A\r\nGRADUAL SPIN-DOWN OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS EASILY LOCATED THIS MORNING BY BOTH RECON AND\r\nSATELLITE...AND IS SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE OVERNIGHT IR POSITIONS. \r\nRECONNAISSANCE FIXES SUGGEST THAT ARLENE IS NOW MOVING AT 340/6.\r\nTHE STORM IS SLOWLY CURVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE 06Z GFDL LOSES THE STORM BY 48\r\nH...AND ALL REMAINING GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  GIVEN THE INCREASED NORTHWARD MOTION...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SHALLOW BAM.  \r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON MOST RECENT RECON.  WITH\r\nTHESE RADII AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO COME VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...AND A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 31.2N  62.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 32.0N  62.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 33.4N  63.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 35.1N  63.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.5N  63.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 43.0N  60.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-06-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999\r\n \r\nARLENE IS WINDING DOWN...WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T2.5...35 KT.  OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE ARLENE THIS\r\nEVENING.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING OBSCURED AS NORTHEASTELY SHEAR IS\r\nBLOWING CIRRUS OVER THE TOP OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 345/7...AS ARLENE CURVES AROUND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THE GFDL LOSES THE STORM BY 48 H...AND THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS A TROUGH MOVES\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM. \r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY COME VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...AND A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.  \r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE GFDL...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE ARLENE BY 48 H\r\nIN ADVANCE OF THE APPROCHING FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 31.9N  62.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 32.9N  63.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  63.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.4N  63.2W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 38.8N  62.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z ...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-06-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE PLANE FOUND HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 40 KNOTS IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1100 FEET...AND THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW UP TO 1015 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY\r\nLITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION.  THESE OBSERVATIONS IMPLY THAT\r\nARLENE IS BARELY OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE SYSTEM IS IN AN\r\nAREA OF CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL CYCLONE TO ITS SOUTH...AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY BE\r\nINHIBITING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION.  VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS\r\nTO BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nMARGINAL.  THEREFORE... FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A DISSIPATING CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO A DRIFT BUT TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\nMOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A MOVEMENT AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nANTICYCLONE...AND IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM \r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 31.8N  62.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 33.0N  63.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 34.7N  63.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  62.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 39.5N  61.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arlene","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-06-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999\r\n\r\nARLENE IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION WELL\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED\r\nON THIS AND THE PREVIOUS RECONNAISSANCE DATA...ARLENE IS DOWNGRADED\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ARLENE\r\nMOVES NORTH OVER COLDER SSTS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE\r\nSYSTEM DISSIPATING AT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW\r\n345/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR\r\nTHE FORECAST REASONING. ARLENE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND\r\nA DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...WITH A STEADY\r\nACCELERATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE BAMM AND BAMS.\r\n\r\nAFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 32.8N  63.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 34.0N  63.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 36.2N  63.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 39.0N  62.2W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  59.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arlene","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-06-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999\r\n \r\nARLENE IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION WELL\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 2.O...30 KT.  FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AS ARLENE MOVES NORTH OVER COLDER SSTS.  THE TIMING OF\r\nDISSIPATION IS THE HARDEST REMAINING QUESTION...WITH THE GFDL LOSING\r\nARLENE AT 10 H...AND THE AVN AND SHIPS BY 48 H. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A COMPROMISE AND HAS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION IS NOW 360/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM\r\nEITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR THE FORECAST REASONING. ARLENE\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND\r\nSTATES...WITH A STEADY ACCELERATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 34.1N  63.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 35.7N  62.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 38.1N  62.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  60.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z ...DISSIPATED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arlene","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-06-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUN 17 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ARLENE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-\r\nDEFINED...WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE NOW 1.5...25 KT.  CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN/CIMSS STILL SHOW 40 KT ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...SO WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  AS ARLENE ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...WE\r\nEXPECT TO LOSE THE CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITHIN 24 H.\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FORWARD MOTION IS NOW\r\n030/11.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 34.9N  61.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 36.3N  60.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 39.0N  59.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z ..DISSIPATED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arlene","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-06-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUN 17 1999\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS LACKED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED. ARLENES\r\nREMNANTS ARE MOVING AT ABOUT 030/12...OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER\r\nWATERS.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING...THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ARLENE.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS BEING ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN\r\nWASHINGTON.  THESE FORECASTS ARE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC\r\nAND UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDHSFAT1.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 36.0N  61.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 37.5N  60.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-07-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUL 03 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nSHORT-LIVED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS ALREADY OVER LAND AND\r\nWEAKENING.  IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.  HEAVY\r\nRAINS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nTRACK AS A TROPICAL WAVE SINCE IT EXITED THE AFRICAN COAST ABOUT TWO\r\nWEEKS AGO. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 20.5N  97.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  99.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-08-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 18 1999\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION HAS FORMED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THEREFORE\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN\r\nTHE DEVELOPING STAGE AND PREVIOUS CENTER FIXES SHOW A LOT OF\r\nSCATTER.  MY BEST ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A RETROGRESSION OF THE MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A\r\nWEAKNESS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS COMPLICATES\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE COULD REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AS WELL.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCE SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEARING DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF. \r\nTHERE IS ALSO AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL GULF WHICH COULD BE IMPARTING SOME SHEAR.  EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE SHEAR IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING... THE ULTIMATE\r\nEFFECT OF THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ADJACENT TO THE DEPRESSION MAY BE TO\r\nSPIN UP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME RECENT RESEARCH. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THESE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FEATURES\r\nBECOMING MOSTLY INDISTINCT...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING OVER\r\nTHE AREA IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY SOME MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THIS ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER\r\nWATER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 20.1N  93.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 20.2N  94.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 20.7N  95.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N  96.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  97.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 18 1999\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED...WITHOUT\r\nA WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE LOCATION WHERE THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\nCENTER...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A MID LEVEL CENTER MAY\r\nBE REDEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/2. \r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A RETROGRESSION OF THE MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH A\r\nWEAKNESS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFDL AND AVN\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-\r\nNORTWESTWARD MOTION...BUT IF THE SYSTEM REFORMS TO THE NORTHEAST A\r\nMORE NORTHERLY TRACK IS LIKELY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE WEST\r\nAWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION WHICH MAY CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT BEYOND 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFRANKLIN \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 19.6N  94.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 19.7N  94.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 19.9N  95.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 20.2N  95.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  96.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  97.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHREE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH A CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE\r\nALLEGED CENTER IDENTIFIED BY TAFB AND SAB METEOROLOGIST IS\r\nPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE 03Z ADVISORY LOCATION. BASED \r\nON THE TAFB AND SAB FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/2 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST ADVISORY THE CENTER LOCATION \r\nREMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND WILL AID IN\r\nDETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.     \r\n \r\nTHE OOZ AVN MODEL CONTINUES THE TREND FROM EARLIER RUNS OF \r\nRETROGRADING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES...WITH A RESULTING WEAKNESS STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE GFDI AND AVN TRACKS GO IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...\r\nTHE AVN EAST AND THE GFDI WEST-SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE \r\nCENTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nA SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HRS...REPRESENTING A SLIGHT\r\nNORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION. \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE WEST AWAY FROM\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WHICH MAY ALLOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEYOND 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 19.9N  93.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 20.1N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 20.3N  95.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N  95.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 20.7N  96.1W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N  97.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS INCREASED\r\nCONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A 180 NM WIDE CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS COVERING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL\r\n1007-1008 MB. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 35-45 KT WINDS 90 NM FROM THE\r\nCENTER JUST OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ...AN AREA NOTORIOUS FOR WIND\r\nFUNNELING. BASED ON THIS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT\r\nSTEERING FLOW...AND BASED ON THE RECON FIXES OF THIS MORNING AND\r\nYESTERDAY AFTERNOON THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN\r\nIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS\r\nTHIS...AND IT IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SAVE FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nSEMICIRCLE WITH ONLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR. WITH THE INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION... CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOUR...WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 19.6N  94.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 19.6N  94.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.8N  95.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 20.2N  95.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N  96.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  97.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE\r\nINDICATED A 1006 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM\r\nFORMING...WITH 39 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS 7 NM FROM THE CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35\r\nKT. CONSEQUENTLY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM BRET. EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...THE\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ON INFRARED IMAGERY IS STILL RATHER\r\nPOOR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CONVECTION DISAPPEARED\r\nFOR A TIME TONIGHT AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT\r\nSTEERING FLOW...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION BASED ON THE\r\nRECON FIXES IS A NORTHWEST DRIFT. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER BRET WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTH\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SHEAR IS\r\nCURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...CALLING FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL BETWEEN 48\r\nAND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE IRREGULAR WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE RECON DATA AND POSSIBLE\r\nFUNNELING OF THE WIND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 19.9N  94.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 20.1N  94.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N  95.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.9N  96.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  97.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  98.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE\r\nINDICATE A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...DOWN 6 MB\r\nOVER 6 HOURS.   THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTS A CLOSED RING OF CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT.  THEREFORE THE INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH BRET DOES NOT\r\nHAVE MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS IS WELL\r\nORGANIZED WITH THE SUGGESTION OF SOME BANDING DEVELOPING.\r\n \r\nBRET IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HAS BEEN NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET...\r\nAND DEEP BAM NOW KEEP BRET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...WITH A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED TO RESUME\r\nTOMORROW.  THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IS BEING REPLACED BY\r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  GIVEN THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...THE PRESSURE FALL...AND THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER\r\nFLOW...BRET IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMODEL BRINGS BRET TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 H AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 19.8N  94.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.8N  94.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N  95.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.3N  95.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  96.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  97.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE\r\nGAVE 999 MB AND A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 60 KNOTS APPROXIMATELY 4 NMI\r\nFROM THE CENTER.  THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  BRET CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER IN THE INFRARED\r\nPICTURES ALTHOUGH IT IS A SMALL SYSTEM. IT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED\r\nWITH THE SUGGESTION OF SOME BANDING DEVELOPING.\r\n \r\nBRET IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND REMAINS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY.  THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE BAM AND AVN MOVE OFF SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THE GFDL SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THAN\r\nSOUTH...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES SLOWLY EAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF CONTINUES TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW FROM BRET.  THE LAST\r\nRECON SHOWED THAT BRET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DO\r\nSO AS PER THE SHIPS MODEL.  BRET IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY 36 HR.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 19.9N  94.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 19.9N  94.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  95.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.3N  95.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N  96.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  97.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOWS\r\nBRET TO BE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS\r\nDROPPED TO 993 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT LESS THAN\r\n10 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 50 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/06. WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER\r\nTROUGH OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO OVERLYING A LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS\r\nSCATTERED. THE NHC98 AND CLIPER...THE BEST VERIFYING ON THE CURRENT\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION...CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS. THE BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND NHC90UK ALL TURN THE STORM\r\nWESTWARD TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST. THE GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD PROBLEMS\r\nWITH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...TURNS BRET BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND A LATER\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN...AND IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER BRET IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT\r\nSHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\nLESS THAN 24 HOURS AND TO 90 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...BUT STILL MAKES BRET A HURRICANE IN\r\nLESS THAN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE CURRENTLY NORTHERLY MOTION AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nFORECAST...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF BRET OVER THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 20.9N  94.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 21.6N  94.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 22.3N  95.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  95.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.5N  96.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 24.0N  98.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX ON BRET FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nINDICATED 992 MB WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50-55 KT. THE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURES CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB NOW AT 55 KT. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN A BRIEF HINT OF\r\nAN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 55 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/6. THE HURRICANE TRACK FORECAST MODELS ARE\r\nNOW QUITE SCATTERED. CLIPER AND A98E INDICATE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...WITH CLIPER HAVING A LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON TEXAS. THE\r\nGFDL AND THE BAMS ALL SHOW A SHARP TURN TO THE LEFT...WITH THE\r\nBAMM...BAMS... AND GDFL SHOWING A LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. THE\r\nUKMET AND LBAR SHOW A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH THE\r\nUKMET SHOWING A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AND LBAR IN NORTHEAST\r\nMEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE\r\nPOSSIBILITIES...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER BRET IS PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW WITH LIGHT\r\nSHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n12 HOURS AND TO 90 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE SHIPS MODEL. AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS BRET HAS A TIGHT CENTRAL\r\nCORE...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN\r\nFORECAST HERE.\r\n \r\nWITH THE CURRENTLY NORTHERLY MOTION AND THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF BRET OVER THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 21.3N  94.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  94.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 22.7N  94.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 23.3N  95.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 24.0N  96.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N  98.0W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.  AIR FORCE AND\r\nNOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTS THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IN BRET CONTINUES TO DROP...WITH THE MOST RECENT REPORT OF\r\n981 MB...DOWN 11 MB IN 8 HOURS.  A GPS DROPWINDSONDE IN THE NORTH\r\nEYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT.  WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT\r\nTHE DROPSONDE DID NOT MEASURE THE ABSOLUTE PEAK WINDS IN THE\r\nSTORM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT...MAKING BRET THE\r\nFIRST HURRICANE OF THE 1999 ATLANTIC SEASON.  PRESSURE FALLS IN BRET\r\nHAVE BEEN PRECEDING WIND INCREASES...AND WE EXPECT THAT BRET WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 355/8...A BIT FASTER TO THE NORTH.  MOST\r\nGUIDANCE IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE\r\nGFDL DRAMATICALLY SO.  THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF BRET TO TURN THE HURRICANE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  OF INTEREST IS THE UKMET...WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE AND SUGGESTS A LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN TEXAS.  THIS\r\nMODEL HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR AND CANNOT BE\r\nDISCOUNTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL INDICATES A LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE NORTH COAST OF MEXICO...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM AN ARRAY OF\r\nGPS DROPWINDSONDES.  THESE SONDES WERE RELEASED FROM A NOAA\r\nP-3 AIRCRAFT DURING A RESEARCH MISSION OF THE HURRICANE RESEARCH\r\nDIVISION.  THE NEW WIND RADII ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWARD\r\nTRANSLATION OF BRET.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF BRET OVER THE WEEKEND.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 22.3N  94.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 23.4N  94.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 24.3N  95.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 24.7N  96.2W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  97.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  98.5W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 85-90 KNOT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON HIS LAST PASS WITH A\r\nPRESSURE OF 980 MB.  AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME THE MIAMI SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATE WAS 77 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 979 MB. THUS...THE\r\nWINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH FORECASTS BRET TO BECOME A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/6...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE\r\nAVN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF BRET TO TURN THE HURRICANE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST THEN WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS DO THE BAM MODELS.  THE\r\nUKMET CONTINUES TO MOVE THE HURRICANE INTO LOWER CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE\r\nTHE LBAR AND GFDL ARE NEAR THE US/MEXICAN BORDER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nSOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF BRET DURING THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 22.7N  94.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  95.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N  96.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 25.1N  96.8W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N  97.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  99.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nA SUBSTANTIAL 500 MB HIGH HOLDING STEADY IN THE VICINITY OF NEW\r\nMEXICO FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SLOWING OF THE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AND/OR A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\nSHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE CENTER AT THE COAST NEAR THE\r\nTEXAS MEXICO BORDER IN 36 HOURS.  THE UKMET HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT\r\nMUCH SLOWER AND THE NOGAPS KEEPS BRET ABOUT STATIONARY FOR 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND HAS THE CENTER AT THE COAST IN 36 HOURS.  THIS MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE FAST BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS 34 KNOT WINDS TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...DEPENDING ON THE GALE RADIUS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WHICH\r\nIS ONLY ABOUT 60 NMI AT THIS TIME...BUT WHICH COULD EXPAND IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  SO IT IS TIME TO PUT UP HURRICANE WARNINGS...FROM LA\r\nPESCA MEXICO TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.\r\n\r\nTHE HIGHEST RECON WIND SPEED THIS MORNING IS 92 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 978 MB.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED AND FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 105 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TAKES THE WIND TO 110 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 23.4N  94.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 24.4N  95.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 25.2N  96.1W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 25.8N  97.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  99.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/07.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL RUN\r\nSHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES INFLUENCING THE\r\nMOTION WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED IN THE VICINITY OF NEW MEXCIO\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE ALSO CHANGED LITTLE.\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL IS THE FASTEST WITH THE CENTER AT THE COAST NEAR THE\r\nUS/MEXICO BORDER IN 24 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE MUCH\r\nSLOWER AND THE NOGAPS IS FARTHER SOUTH SHOWING A WEST THEN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE AVIATION AND BAM MODELS ALSO SHOW THE TURN\r\nCONTINUING AROUND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER MODELS AND\r\nKEEPS THE LANDFALL LOCATION NEAR THE BORDER IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE FROM RECONNAISSANCE IS 976 MB AND THEY\r\nREPORTED 101 KNOTS AT 850 MB JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ALSO A\r\nGPS DROP SHOWED A WIND MAX OF 112 KNOTS AT 900 MB IN THE EYEWALL\r\nDECREASING TO 75 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED AT\r\n21Z IS INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AND 110 KNOTS IS FORECAST IN 24\r\nHOURS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS IS SIMIALR TO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECAST AND IS BASED ON WARM SSTS...MINIMAL VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF A WELL DEFINED EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW ISSUED FOR\r\nNORTH OF BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. \r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 24.1N  95.1W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 25.0N  95.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 25.7N  96.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  97.5W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 25.8N  98.3W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 25.0N 100.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nTWO IMPORTANT EVENTS HAVE OCCURRED TONIGHT. FIRST...BRET HAS RAPIDLY\r\nINTENSIFIED TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE\r\nAND THIS IS BASED ON WINDS FROM GPS DROPSONDES RELEASED IN THE\r\nEYEWALL BY THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. WINDS TO 135 KNOTS WERE\r\nMEASURED BY THE SONDES AT 60 METERS ELEVATION. THIS CORRESPONDS TO A\r\nSURFACE WIND OF 115 KNOTS. WINDS OF 149 KNOTS WERE MEASURED AT 888\r\nMB.\r\n \r\nSECOND...BRET HAS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND FASTER...ABOUT 9 TO\r\n12 KNOTS. THIS INCREASES THE RISK FOR RESIDENTS ALONG THE TEXAS\r\nCOAST.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nA MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  IF THIS MATERIALIZES...THE RIDGE SHOULD BLOCK THE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AND FORCE IT TO THE WEST. THIS IS\r\nTHE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS BRET DOWN AND GRADUALLY\r\nTURNS IT TO THE WEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WELL BEFORE\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n \r\nDATA CURRENTLY BEING OBTAINED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET WILL BE\r\nUSED IN THE NEXT CYCLE OF NUMERICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 25.2N  95.1W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.0N  95.2W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 26.9N  96.1W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 27.5N  97.3W   120 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 27.5N  97.7W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 27.7N  98.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n\r\nLATEST REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT BRET MAY HAVE\r\nSTRENGTHENED A LITTLE FURTHER...WITH THE DROPSONDE-MEASURED CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE DOWN TO 948 MB.  BRETS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS\r\nNOT AS SYMMETRIC AS IT WAS EARLIER.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE HURRICANE MAY BE CAUSING SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUD\r\nSHIELD OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE INNER\r\nCORE OF BRET APPEARS TO BE UNAFFECTED.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY MAY OCCUR BUT CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nMAINTAINED UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC VORTEX NEAR\r\nTHE LOWER RIO GRANDE...AND THIS MAY HAVE PUSHED THE HURRICANE A\r\nLITTLE MORE NORTHWARD THAN WAS EXPECTED. CENTER FIXES NOW INDICATE A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR 9 KNOTS.  THERE WAS AN EXTENSIVE SAMPLING\r\nOF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT AROUND BRET AND THESE DATA HAVE BEEN\r\nINPUT INTO THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES\r\nALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFORECASTS THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS IS FOR A TURN TO THE LEFT...TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.   ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...AND NO NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE\r\nWARNINGS IS DEEMED NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BASED ON THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE... SHOWS A\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  IF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR THEN THE\r\nCENTER WILL REACH THE COAST SOONER THAN INDICATED.  DO NOT FOCUS ON\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK.  EVEN THOUGH BRET IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE IN\r\nTHE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY A PRECISE\r\nPOINT AND TIME OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 26.0N  95.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 26.6N  96.1W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 27.3N  96.9W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 27.5N  97.5W   110 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  98.2W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 27.3N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/09 AND WE MAY BE SEEING THE\r\nBEGINNING OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THAT MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR SOME TIME.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO INDICATE THAT THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRET WILL CAUSE\r\nTHE MOTION TO SLOW AND TURN LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nCONTINUES THE INITIAL MOTION FOR 12 HOURS WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER TO\r\nTHE COAST.  AFTER THIS THE TRACK FORECAST SLOWS TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS\r\nWITH A MOSTLY WESTWARD HEADING.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 944 MB AND WIND\r\nREPORTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 120 KNOT HURRICANE.  NO IMPORTANT\r\nCHANGES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nDATA BUOY 42020 REPORTED 35 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME AT 12Z WHEN THE\r\nCENTER WAS ABOUT 60 NMI TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO THIS IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nTHE 34-KNOT RADIUS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nWHLIE WE ARE CALLING FOR 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...IF THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION SLOW TO 5 KNOTS....THERE COULD BE AMOUNTS IN THE 20 INCH\r\nRANGE.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 26.5N  96.5W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 27.4N  97.3W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 27.7N  98.4W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 27.7N  99.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 27.7N  99.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 27.5N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07.  THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE IS STILL THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE\r\nAFFECTING THE MOTION.  THE 12Z AVIATION RUN SHOWS THIS FEATURE\r\nRETREATING NORTHWESTWARD A LITTLE AND THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY\r\nMOVING BRET FURTHER WESTWARD AND INLAND IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST CONTINUES THE INITIAL MOTION FOR 12 HOURS AND THIS\r\nBRINGS THE CENTER ACROSS PADRE ISLAND IN A FEW HOURS. RADAR\r\nINDICATES THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 15 MILE DIAMETER EYEWALL IS\r\nALREADY AT THE COAST.  THE FORECAST THEN CONTINUES A SLOW MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FURTHER INLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 946 MB SO THE INTENSITY\r\nIS HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY AND 120 KNOTS IS STILL A GOOD NUMBER FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  DOPPLER WINDS OF 135 KNOTS HAVE BEEN\r\nDETECTED BY THE CORPUS CHRISTI RADAR AT ABOUT 10000 FT.\r\n \r\nWE ARE CURRENTLY CALLING FOR 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN AND THIS MAY\r\nHAVE TO BE INCREASED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY IF THE FORWARD SPEED SLOWS\r\nAS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 26.7N  97.1W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 27.3N  98.1W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 27.5N  99.1W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 27.5N 100.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 27.5N 101.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nBRET HAS MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST MIDWAY BETWEEN\r\nBROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 100 MPH\r\nHAVE BEEN RECEIVED AT THE BROWNSVILLE FORECAST OFFICE IN KENNEDY\r\nCOUNTY NEAR WHERE THE CROSSED THE COAST. GPS DROPSONDE DATA FROM \r\nTHE U.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT BRET \r\nHAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LAST MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 952 MB...AND USING THE GPS WIND DATA\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES SLOWLY\r\nINLAND WITH BRET FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN \r\n12 HRS.  \r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT BRET HAS SLOWED\r\nDOWN SOMEWHAT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW ON A MORE WESTERLY\r\nCOURSE...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/06 KT.  THE PHILOSOPHY\r\nREGARDING TRACK OF HURRICANE BRET REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD\r\nSTEERING COMPONENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS \r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HRS WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION\r\n...THIS IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH BAMD. \r\n\r\nAS A RESULT OF THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION...THE PRIMARY THREAT BRET\r\nWILL POSE THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE HEAVY RAINS. RAINFALL\r\nTOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. FURTHER\r\nINFORMATION REGARDING THE RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN LOCAL \r\nNWS FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS.\r\n   \r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED \r\nON WIND ANALYSES FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 26.9N  97.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N  98.4W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 27.1N  99.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 27.2N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 27.2N 100.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 27.2N 101.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bret","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM CDT MON AUG 23 1999\r\n \r\nSINCE LANDFALL...BRET HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE 280/5 ACROSS KENEDY\r\nCOUNTY INTO BROOKS COUNTY TEXAS. WSR-88D DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI\r\nAND BROWNSVILLE SHOW THE EYE HAS FILLED...ALTHOUGH INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0745Z STILL SHOWED A HINT OF AN EYE. DOPPLER\r\nWINDS FROM THE RADARS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING...AND THIS DATA\r\nIS THE BASIS FOR THE 75 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE TO SAY ABOUT BRET TRACKWISE. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE...AND\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nCALLING FOR BRET TO SLOW TO 3 KT AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDUE THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION...BRET IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD\r\nHEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH\r\nADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 10-20 INCHES POSSIBLE. WSR-88D RAINFALL\r\nESTIMATES INDICATE AS MUCH AS 28 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER\r\nPARTS OF KENEDY COUNTY. FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE RAINFALL\r\nTHREAT CAN BE FOUND IN LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED\r\nON SURFACE DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND BUOY 42020.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 27.1N  98.2W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 27.1N  99.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 27.1N  99.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.1N 100.4W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 27.1N 101.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 23 1999\r\nCORRECTION TO HEADER...CHANGE SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL STORM\r\n\r\nWIND REPORTS FROM ALICE AND CORPUS CHRISTI ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR\r\nWINDS INDICATE THAT BRET IS NEAR MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS TO KEEP TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A FEW\r\nMORE HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ROUGHLY 295/05 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE BIG THING NOW IS RAINFALL.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF NEAR 10\r\nINCHES HAVE BEEN REPORTED AND 10 TO 15 INCHES OF ADDITION RAINFALL\r\nARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 27.4N  98.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 27.7N  99.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.7N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 27.7N 100.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 27.7N 101.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE STILL A FEW 50 KNOT DOPPLER BLIPS FROM THE KCRP RADAR AND\r\n25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WIND REPORTED FROM LAREDO...ALICE AND CORPUS\r\nCHRISTI...SO BRET IS KEPT AT TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  HOWEVER THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/05.  THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A\r\nMOSTLY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE...BUT CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY 72\r\nHOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...IN PARTICULAR FROM AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE BAND EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nSINCE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...HPC WILL TAKE OVER AND\r\nBEGIN ISSUING STORM SUMMARIES AT 23Z.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 27.8N  99.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 28.2N  99.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 28.4N 100.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 28.4N 101.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 28.4N 102.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 6 HRS\r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS TO -80C...SOUTH AND WEST OF THE\r\nSUSPECTED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL NOT VERY WELL\r\nORGANIZED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REFLECT...25 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFGW AND 35 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD \r\nAT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30 KT PER CLOUD\r\nDRIFT WIND DATA.  THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION\r\nSCHEME...SHIPS...CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODEST STRENGTHENING...50 KT\r\nBY 72 HRS...LIMITED BY THE EASTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS. SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...THE\r\nINTENSITY TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13 KT WHICH REPRESENTS A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nIS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION\r\nAS DEMONSTRATED IN THE 45-60 NM SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE-BASED FIXES.\r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nPRODUCE A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS. THE 00Z AVN SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKNESS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BEND TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND A DECELERATION BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS PACKAGE PRIMARILY DUE TO\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 14.0N  21.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.4N  23.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 14.9N  25.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.3N  27.6W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N  29.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N  31.0W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS\r\nNEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSOME DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE-BASED\r\nCENTER LOCATIONS...WHICH PRODUCE A BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF\r\n280/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR\r\nFORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH AFTER 48\r\nHOURS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS MAINTAINED ITSELF AGAINST MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG SHEAR. THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST SOME\r\nDECREASE IN THE SHEAR MAY OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH\r\nWOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER 25C-26C WATER AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SLOW OR HALT\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 14.1N  22.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 14.4N  23.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 14.8N  25.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.1N  27.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N  30.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N  34.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS BECOME HARD TO LOCATE DUE\r\nTO A CIRRUS COVER OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE EARLIER STRONG\r\nCONVECTION HAS NOT PERSISTED...AND INSTEAD THERE IS BURSTING\r\nCONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF A SHEARED SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...THIS PACKAGE WILL\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN FINDING THE\r\nCENTER...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 275/8. DESPITE THIS...THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AS THE SHEAR AND DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION\r\nSHOULD SLOW INTENSIFICATION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN 6 HOURS AGO...IT STILL\r\nPASSES OVER SOME 25C-26C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS. THUS...LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 14.0N  22.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 14.2N  24.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 14.4N  26.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.7N  28.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.0N  30.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.0N  35.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nWHAT LITTLE DATA THAT ARE AVAILABLE ON THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE\r\nSENDING STRONGLY MIXED SIGNALS THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE LATTER FROM THE NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY IN\r\nMONTEREY CALIFORNIA...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS\r\nSUFFERING FROM STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  RECENT IMAGES SHOW NO\r\nCONVECTION CLOSE TO THE PRESUMED CENTER.  ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIP\r\n4QUM REPORTED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 KT AT 18Z AND 37 KT AT 00Z.  THE\r\nSECOND REPORT WAS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nALTHOUGH THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE ACCEPTED AS CORRECT...I BELIEVE THEY\r\nREFLECT THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OF THE ITCZ...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY IN THE MORNING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER\r\nTHIS ANALYSIS IS CORRECT...OR WHETHER THERE IS A WELL DEFINED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION...WITH THE REQUIRED ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/8...AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE\r\nSHEAR...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO LESSEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN HELD BACK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 14.0N  23.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.1N  24.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.4N  26.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N  29.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N  31.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N  36.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nAS IS THE CASE WITH NIGHT TIME IR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE.  TAFB...SAB AND AIR FORCE\r\nGLOBAL HAVE COME IN WITH POSITIONS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONES.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THEIR POSITIONS ARE RELATIVELY CLOSE SO A\r\nWEIGHTED MEAN WILL BE USED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n   \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 265/9.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...GFDL\r\nAND NOGAPS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ALTHOUGH WITH SOMEWHAT\r\nDIFFERENT SPEEDS.  OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS STRONGLY WEIGHTED BY\r\nTHESE TWO MODELS AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nBECAUSE OF EXPECTED SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 13.6N  24.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.5N  26.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.6N  28.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 13.8N  30.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 14.0N  33.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N  38.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFOUR IS EXPOSED AT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE POORLY ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nAT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DEPRESSION ON\r\nTHIS PACKAGE DUE TO THE RAGGED APPEARANCE AND NO IMPROVEMENT IN THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE SINCE YESTERDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THE AVN MODEL KEEPS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE MODEL\r\nAND AVN-BASED GUIDANCE RESPOND TO THE TROUGH BY TURNING THE SYSTEM\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDES SUCH A TURN AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY OR AS FAR NORTH AS THE AVN-BASED\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE AVN AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL SLOWLY\r\nDECREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL STILL\r\nHAS 22 KT SHEAR AT 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR DECREASES.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 13.8N  25.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.8N  26.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 14.0N  28.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.4N  31.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.0N  33.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N  38.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED AND SOMEWHAT POORLY ORGANIZED...\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MORE INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION\r\nDURING THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. AS SEEN SIX HOURS AGO...THE AVN MODEL\r\nKEEPS A LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH\r\nA MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE RIDGE. THE AVN MODEL\r\nAND AVN-BASED GUIDANCE TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...\r\nPARTLY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AND PARTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER INITIALIZED IN THE AVN. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT TURN THE SYSTEM AS QUICKLY AS THE GUIDANCE...WITH\r\nA GRADUAL CURVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE AVN AND NOGAPS CONTINUE SUGGEST THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nWILL SLOWLY DECREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL STILL HAS 20-30 KT SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION THE SHEAR WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 13.6N  27.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.6N  28.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.9N  30.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.3N  33.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N  35.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N  40.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHAN YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE. DVORAK T-\r\nNUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT CINDY\r\nHAS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 40\r\nKNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL UNDER SOME\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.  THEREFORE...A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND CINDY MAY REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS BY 72 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11.  CURRENTLY...THERE IS\r\nA WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...LARGE SCALE MODELS WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 13.6N  28.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.6N  30.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 13.7N  32.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N  34.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N  37.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N  42.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n\r\nCINDYS CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nBUT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE STILL NOT VERY WELL DEFINED.  DVORAK T-\r\nNUMBERS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING IS\r\nSTILL IMPACTING THE STORM...BUT ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN CIMSS WEB SITE INDICATE WEAKER SHEAR AHEAD.  CINDY IS\r\nLIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 TO 10 KNOTS.  THERE IS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF 30W...WHICH IS PROBABLY CAUSING THE SLOWER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION OF CINDY.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THIS\r\nWEAKNESS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME...WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEAST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST RIDGE AT 500 MB ORIENTED NORTH OF CINDY IN 2-3\r\nDAYS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT OFFICAL FORECAST.  \r\nTHIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 13.7N  29.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.8N  30.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.0N  33.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N  35.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N  38.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N  42.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RESPECTFUL LOOKING BANDING TYPE PATTERN...\r\nWITH A RATHER RAGGED LOOKING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR AT THE PRESENT TIME...THIS\r\nSHOULD DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  AT LOW LEVELS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nSOLID RIDGE TO THE NORTH AT LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WEAK\r\nSYSTEM TO CONTINUE THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...AT MID\r\nLEVELS THERE IS A WEAKNESS WHICH WOULD DICTATE A MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET TO THE\r\nRIGHT AND THE NOGAPS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  THIS\r\nCURRENT TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 14.0N  29.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N  31.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.4N  33.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.8N  36.2W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N  38.7W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N  43.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN\r\n...WITH THE CENTER NOW UNDER A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE 45 KNOT ESTIMATE FROM AFWA AND THE 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  CINDY IS LIKELY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...AND THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 26 AND 27C ALONG MOST OF THE TRACK...\r\nBECOMING A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nSOLID RIDGE TO THE NORTH AT LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WEAK\r\nSYSTEM TO CONTINUE THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...AT MID\r\nLEVELS THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND IS PRIMARILY A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAVY NOGAPS...THE UKMET AND THE GFDL.  \r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 14.2N  31.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.4N  33.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.8N  35.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.3N  37.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.1N  40.3W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N  45.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN\r\n...WITH THE CENTER NOW UNDER A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0/4.5 FROM SAB AND MIAMI RESPECTIVELY. THUS...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS WHICH MAKES CINDY THE\r\nSECOND HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS YEAR.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES CINDY OVER 26 AND 27C SSTS...BECOMING A LITTLE WARMER\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 280/10.  VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nSOLID RIDGE TO THE NORTH AT LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WEAK\r\nSYSTEM TO CONTINUE THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...AT MID\r\nLEVELS THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND IS PRIMARILY A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAVY NOGAPS...THE UKMET AND THE GFDL AND VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 14.3N  32.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N  34.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.0N  36.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N  38.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.4N  41.4W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nCINDY HAS BEEN SHEARED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nEXPOSED...AND LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nT-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0/3.5 FROM SAB AND MIAMI RESPECTIVELY...BUT CI\r\nNUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0/4.5 AS PER DEVORAK CONSTRAINTS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS AND WE WILL SEE IF THE SHEAR IS\r\nJUST TEMPORARY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE RECOGNIZES THE SHEAR BUT STILL\r\nFORECASTS CINDY TO STRENGTHEN IN TIME...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nCINDY...THAT WAS MOVING CINDY TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATER FORECAST\r\nPERIODS... IS NOT GOING TO AFFECT THE TRACK OF CINDY AS MUCH.  ALL\r\nOF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE LESS OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND ALL 72\r\nHOUR POSITIONS ARE NOW SOUTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH.  THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND THE 72 HOUR\r\nFORECAST POSITION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 14.5N  33.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.7N  34.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.9N  36.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.2N  38.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N  40.9W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N  46.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CINDY IS UNDER STRONG\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED\r\nJUST TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL POSITION HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST.  CINDY MAY BE BARELY A\r\nHURRICANE SINCE SOME OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW 65 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME INTENSITY AT THIS TIME UNTIL A\r\nMORE VISIBLE PICTURES BECOME AVAILABLE.  ASSUMING THE SHEAR WILL\r\nRELAX...AS CINDY MOVES AWAY FROM THE STRONG 200 MB EASTERLY\r\nAFRICAN JET...SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.   SHIPS MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND KEEPS CINDY WITH 65\r\nKNOTS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/06.  IN GENERAL...TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nSLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SPLIT.  SOME MODELS\r\nINDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WHILE THE BAM MODELS CONTINUE WITH A\r\nGENERAL WEST OR EVEN WEST SOUTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 14.4N  32.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.6N  33.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.7N  35.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.0N  38.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N  41.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N  46.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT CINDY IS UNDER STRONG\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CENTER IS EXPOSED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CONVECTION BUT THE SYSTEM...AS A WHOLE...HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE.   BASED ON THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...\r\nCINDY IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME.\r\nBECAUSE CINDY IS MOVING SLOWLY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT\r\nFORECAST TO CHANGE...RELATIVELY STRONG SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM.  AT THIS TIME...WINDS ARE KEPT AT 55 KNOTS THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD...IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL AFRICAN\r\nMONSOON-TYPE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nTRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED THEREAFTER. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 14.6N  33.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.8N  33.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  35.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N  37.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.5N  39.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N  45.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY REMAINS IN A HIGHLY SHEARED STATE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOFF TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE...AND SO RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM.  ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION...THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE\r\nTEMPORARY.  INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 50 KT AT THIS ADVISORY BASED ON\r\nFALLING DVORAK T NUMBERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT INTO TWO\r\nCAMPS...WITH THE BAM MODELS INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK AT VARYING\r\nSPEEDS RELATED TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE REMAINING\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET...INDICATING A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE.  IF CINDY BECOMES COMPLETELY DETACHED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THE MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH SLOWER.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 15.0N  34.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.3N  34.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N  36.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N  38.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N  40.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  47.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON AUG 23 1999\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT CINDY.  ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE INVOLVED WITH THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD IMPLY SOME RE-STRENGTHENING...THIS IS\r\nNOT CERTAIN.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 50\r\nKNOTS.  THE KEY TO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CINDY IS THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  ONCE THE STORM MOVES WEST OF ABOUT 40W LONGITUDE...I.E. MORE\r\nINTO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWIND ENVIRONMENT...THE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF OUR LIMITATIONS\r\nIN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY HOWEVER.  BASED ON CONTINUITY...IT IS PRESUMED THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS NEAR THE EAST-NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nTHIS GIVES AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 285/07...CLOSE TO THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE 00Z AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  IF THIS VERIFIES...CINDY SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS GENERALLY SHOW\r\nTHIS AS WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 15.1N  34.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.4N  36.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.7N  37.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N  39.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N  42.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  47.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON AUG 23 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY REMAINS IN A PARTIALLY SHEARED STATE...ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT\r\nUNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND WITH REGARD TO THE SHEAR DEVELOPS.  ONCE\r\nTHE STORM MOVES WEST OF ABOUT 40W LONGITUDE...I.E. MORE INTO THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWIND ENVIRONMENT...THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDIMINISH SOMEWHAT.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF OUR LIMITATIONS IN PREDICTING\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH CENTER FIXES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF MY ESTIMATE.  IN EITHER CASE...THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9.  THE 00Z AVN\r\nRUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nOVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  IF THIS VERIFIES...CINDY SHOULD MAINTAIN A\r\nGENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT INCREASING SPEED DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS GENERALLY\r\nSHOW THIS AS WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON A SIMILAR TRACK TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE BUT AT A FASTER SPEED.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 15.5N  36.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N  37.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.2N  39.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.7N  42.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N  45.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N  51.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON AUG 23 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR 72 HOUR POSITION...\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  THE 12 AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nA SLIGHT WEAKNESS AHEAD OF THE STORM IN THE 500 MB RIDGE.  THIS IS\r\nCAUSING ALL OF THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS TO CONTINUE A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH SOME ACCELERATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS NOT VERY WELL\r\nDEFINED.  SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS NOT CHANGED FOR 36\r\nHOURS.  AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A WEAKENING OF THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED RADII ARE ADJUSTED TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT...BUT THE RADII ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT\r\nMORE SYMMETRIC AT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 16.3N  37.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.8N  38.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.6N  41.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N  43.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N  46.6W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  53.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON AUG 23 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE WITH THE CENTER ABOUT 45 NM\r\nNORTHEAST FROM THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY RELAX WITHIN 24 HRS OR\r\nSO...AS DOES THE OUTPUT FROM THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS CINDY\r\nRETURNING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HRS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG\r\nAS SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE-BASED FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11 KT.  THE\r\n23/12Z AVN MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BY 48 HRS. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC-BASED TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING\r\nTHROUGH 72 HRS WITH SOME ACCELERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK REFLECTS THIS MOTION. THE NHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMD.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 16.7N  38.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  40.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.1N  42.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.3N  45.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N  48.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N  54.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nWHILE THE LATEST MULTI-CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nCINDY REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE...FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFGW SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KTS.\r\nTHE 00Z AVIATION RUN SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY RELAX WITHIN 24 HRS\r\nOR SO...AS DOES THE OUTPUT FROM THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS. THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING\r\nWARMER SST...28C BY 48 HRS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CONTINUED SHEARING\r\nCONDITIONS AND OUR LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY FORECASTING THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE TREND OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING \r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11 KTS. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HRS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nCLUSTERED ON THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...NAMELY\r\nTHE BAM MODELS AND THE AVN...TAKE CINDY ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nHEADING BEYOND 36 HRS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS CINDY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nHEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 17.2N  39.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.8N  41.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N  43.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N  46.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N  49.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES ARE RATHER SCATTERED THIS MORNING...WITH A 90 MILE\r\nSPREAD BETWEEN SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA.  I AM GOING WITH THE\r\nAFWA...THE NORTHERNMOST.  THIS PUTS THE CENTER ON OR JUST OUTSIDE\r\nTHE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nDIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ALSO AT ABOUT THIS TIME...CINDY WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER WARMER WATER.  SHIPS GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS CINDY TO 84 KT\r\nIN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT\r\nTHIS TIME UNTIL THE SHEAR LESSENS. \r\n\r\nTHE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION MAY BE DEVELOPING...AS THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THIS MORNINGS\r\nFIXES...THOUGH...I AM NOT CERTAIN OF THIS.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF CINDY IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPCICAL RIDGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 17.6N  41.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 18.4N  43.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N  46.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N  53.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF CINDY HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON.  LATE THIS\r\nMORNING A MID-LEVEL VORTEX IN THE CONVECTION WAS EVIDENT IN THE\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE VORTEX IN THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS STILL IN DOUBT...I BELIEVE IT IS...OR SOON WILL\r\nBE...REFORMING UNDER THE NEW CONVECTION.  SSTS UNDER CINDY ARE NOW\r\n27C...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER TIME.  THERE IS STILL A LITTLE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT THIS SHOULD LESSEN OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS CINDY TO 86 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONCURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 280/15.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS NOT AS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE DEEP BAM ON\r\nTHE RIGHT GIVING A NET NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE PERIOD...AND THE\r\nGFDL AND LBAR ON THE LEFT WITH MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  HOW\r\nMUCH RECURVATURE WE GET WILL DEPEND ON THE BREAKDOWN OF THE MID-\r\nATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT\r\nBASED ON THE TREND TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS...AND IS TOWARDS THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 17.6N  43.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N  45.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.7N  48.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 20.3N  51.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  55.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N  60.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IS\r\nESTIMATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  IF THE CENTER IS ACTUALLY MORE CENTRALLY\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST THAN THOUGHT...THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WOULD BE HIGHER.  RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR IS FORECAST ALONG\r\nTHE TRACK AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM.   THEREFORE...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  THERE IS A LITTLE WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CINDY...SO A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE.  OUR CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS SUBSTANTIALLY...THE\r\nACTUAL TRACK COULD BE MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR CURRENT TRACK.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 17.9N  44.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 18.4N  46.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 19.7N  49.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N  52.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 23.7N  55.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  61.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n\r\nBASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS...CINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY. \r\nHOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING IS ABOUT TO TAKE PLACE. \r\nTHIS IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FAIRLY WEAK\r\nAND THE UNDERLYING WATERS ARE BECOMING WARMER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL\r\nMODEL...SHIPS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER POSITION IS NOT OBVIOUS FROM INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT THERE\r\nIS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THE STORM IS MOVING A BIT MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  HOWEVER FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOT ADJUSTED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 55W NORTH OF 20N WOULD INDUCE\r\nA MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IF IT REMAINS IN PLACE. \r\nHOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO MIGRATE WESTWARD...AND WITH A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL 500 MB RIDGE ALONG 30N TO THE NORTH OF CINDY...A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS\r\nABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AS WELL.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 18.6N  45.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N  47.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 20.7N  50.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  53.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  55.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  61.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF CINDY IS A LITTLE RAGGED THIS MORNING\r\nAND SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.  CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nSHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/13...JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION.  OOZ AVN BUILDS THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE AHEAD OF\r\nCINDY AND SO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY GFDL...HINTS AT A MORE\r\nWESTERLY TRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE O6Z AVN INDICATES\r\nA MUCH WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THIS TIME...UNTIL THE\r\nMODEL TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 19.6N  46.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 20.2N  48.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 21.7N  51.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 23.3N  54.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 25.0N  56.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 28.5N  61.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF CINDY HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A CENTRAL\r\nRING OF BROKEN CONVECTION AND SOME BANDING TO THE SOUTH.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO WE WILL\r\nBRING THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT ON THIS PACKAGE WITH THE EXPECTATION\r\nTHAT CINDY WILL BE A HURRICANE SOON.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND ADEQUATE\r\nSSTS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS CINDY UP TO 92 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT...AND CINDY IS NOW\r\nMOVING AT 305/14.  06 AND 12Z AVN RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT SHOULD ALLOW A MOSTLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 20.6N  47.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 21.9N  49.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 23.6N  52.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.6N  54.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  57.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 31.5N  61.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARD 330 DEGREES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/15...WHICH IS A MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE 10 DEGREE SHIFT TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS HEADING\r\nOF 305 DEGREES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL CLOSELY CLUSTERED\r\nTOGETHER SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nMOTION APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND CINDY\r\nIS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ALLOW\r\nFOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND THE FORECAST TO 90 KNOT IN 48 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 22.2N  48.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 23.6N  50.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.0N  53.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  55.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 28.2N  57.6W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  61.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF CINDY DOES NOT SUGGEST ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0...65 KNOTS. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK OF CINDY\r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES ABOUT 30N LATITUDE...THEREFORE THE\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 55-60W HAS BEEN PULLING CINDY MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/15.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOVEMENT SHOULD CONTINUE AS SUGGESTED BY THE U.K. MET OFFICE\r\nMODEL...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A GOOD PERFORMER.\r\n\r\nPASCH  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 23.3N  50.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.9N  52.1W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 26.7N  54.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 28.5N  56.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  57.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 32.5N  60.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 AND 75 KT...AND THIS MAY BE THE\r\nBEGINNING OF THE ANTICIPATED STRENGTHENING OF CINDY.  OUTFLOW\r\nCONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH A HEALTHY CDO.  WE WILL HOLD THE\r\nINTENSITY AT 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND IF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPROVE...ANTICIPATE AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  SEA SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE\r\nTRACK OF CINDY UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES ABOUT 30N LATITUDE...\r\nTHEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 55-60W HAS BEEN PULLING CINDY MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/17.  MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE HINTS AT A JOG TO THE WEST IN THE 24-48 H RANGE...BUT ALSO\r\nTHAT THIS WILL BE TEMPORARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE FORECAST INTERVAL.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 25.0N  51.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.7N  52.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 28.7N  54.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 30.1N  57.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 31.5N  58.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 35.0N  60.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":32,"Date":"1999-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nSHIP ELUU6 REPORTED WINDS OF 60 KT ABOUT 90 MILES AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER AT 18Z.  BASED ON THIS REPORT AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 75 KT FROM SAB...WE ARE INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 75\r\nKT WITH THIS ADVISORY.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOOKING BANDS\r\nIN THE INNER CORE THAT MAY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  INTENSIFICATION WILL BE LIMITED IN THE LONG RUN BY COOLER\r\nSSTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH.\r\n \r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 55-60W HAS BEEN PULLING CINDY MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/18...ABOUT THE SAME\r\nAS THE LAST PACKAGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY UNANIMOUS ON A\r\nRECURVATURE THROUGH A BREAK IN THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED AGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WITH A DISTINCT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IN THE 24-\r\n48 HOUR RANGE AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 26.1N  52.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 27.8N  54.9W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 30.0N  56.9W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 31.8N  58.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 33.0N  58.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 36.5N  57.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":33,"Date":"1999-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH MIAMI AND SAB ARE 4.5 AND CINDY IS\r\nLOOKING BETTER WITH TIME.  SINCE MANY HURRICANES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY NEAR THEIR LATITUDE OF RECURVATURE IT APPEARS THAT CINDY\r\nWILL BE NO EXCEPTION.  SHIPS CALL FOR A 90 KNOT MAXIMUM NEAR\r\nRECURVATURE AND THEN A DECREASE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY UNANIMOUS ON THE RECURVATURE BETWEEN 31 AND\r\n33N OR AN AVERAGE OF 32 DEGREES NORTH AND ONLY DISAGREE ON THE\r\nLONGITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A BLEND OF ALL THESE TRACKS BUT\r\nRELIES MOST ON THE GFDL FOR THE RECUVATURE LONGITUDE.  A SLOW\r\nACCELERATION BEGINS AFTER RECURVATURE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 26.9N  53.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 28.2N  55.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 30.0N  56.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 31.8N  57.1W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 33.7N  56.4W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 38.0N  54.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":34,"Date":"1999-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAINING AT\r\n77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KT. UPPER LEVEL\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nCINDY RECURVES AND STARTS MOVING INTO COOLER WATER. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION\r\nAND IS NOW 310/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nSOUTHWEST OF CINDY...WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF BERMUDA. THIS COMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TURN CINDY A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE WEST BEFORE RECURVATURE. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nREFLECTS THIS SHIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN RESPONSE. THE HURRICANE IS STILL\r\nFORECAST TO RECURVE BETWEEN 31N AND 33N AT ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 27.8N  55.0W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 29.1N  56.7W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 30.9N  58.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 32.9N  58.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 35.0N  58.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 39.0N  52.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":35,"Date":"1999-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNING A RAGGED EYE APPEARED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...\r\nAND THE TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION IS 90 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS RAISED TO 90 KT ON THIS BASIS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CINDY EARLY THIS\r\nEVENING.  SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CINDY\r\nRECURVES AND STARTS MOVING INTO COOLER WATER. \r\n \r\nAS CINDY MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE THE MOTION HAS SLOWED A\r\nBIT...AND IS NOW 310/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nLOW SOUTHWEST OF CINDY...WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF BERMUDA. THIS COMBINATION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TURN CINDY A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE WEST BEFORE RECURVATURE.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH RECURVATURE JUST EAST OF 60 DEGREES\r\nLONGITUDE...WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 28.0N  55.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 29.0N  57.2W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 31.0N  58.7W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 33.4N  58.8W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 35.5N  57.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 39.5N  50.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":36,"Date":"1999-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nNOT VERY MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH CINDY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN AT 90 KT.  A LITTLE BIT OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE CINDY REACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nMODELS CONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EMILY.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A RECURVATURE INDICATED\r\nBETWEEN 58 AND 60 DEGREES LONGITUDE...WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 28.6N  56.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 29.7N  58.1W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 31.7N  59.1W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 34.1N  58.7W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 36.5N  56.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 40.5N  48.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":37,"Date":"1999-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH MIAMI AND SAB ARE\r\n6.0...WHICH MOVES CINDY INTO THE MAJOR HURRICANE CATEGORY.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KNOTS.  SINCE WE ARE STILL ABOUT 24 HOURS TO\r\nRECURVATURE THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  SHIPS ALSO SUGGESTS THIS AS A POSSIBILITY AND\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE CINDY REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS.\r\n \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A RECURVATURE\r\nINDICATED BETWEEN 58 AND 60 DEGREES LONGITUDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\nTHIS KEEPS CINDY WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 29.1N  57.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 30.0N  58.2W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  58.9W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 33.6N  58.4W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 35.4N  56.3W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  48.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":38,"Date":"1999-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 35 NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN -65C TO -75C CLOUD TOPS.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...ARE 115 KT. THAT WILL BE THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nTODAY... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS CINDY MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES\r\nAND OVER COOLER WATER. TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY START BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nRIDGING SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LAST NIGHT NORTH OF BERMUDA IS\r\nMOVING EAST AND IS NOW ALONG 60W. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO\r\nTHE WESTERLIES AT ABOUT 24 HOURS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. A\r\nGRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS LIKELY AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE. ALL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 29.6N  57.9W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  58.9W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 32.1N  59.2W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 34.2N  58.4W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 36.5N  55.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 42.0N  46.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":39,"Date":"1999-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ARE NOW 127 AND\r\n115 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AVERAGED OVER THE PAST THREE\r\nHOURS GIVE 120 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS SET TO THIS VALUE...MAKING\r\nCINDY AN UNAMBIGUOUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT\r\nOF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND INDEED THE OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY PEAKED.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT CINDY WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AT ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS AND ACCELERATE THEREAFTER.  THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS THE TIMING OF\r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...A TRANSITION THAT WE KNOW LITTLE\r\nABOUT.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 30.4N  58.2W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 31.4N  58.8W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 33.4N  58.7W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 35.4N  56.9W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 38.0N  54.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 44.0N  44.0W    80 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":40,"Date":"1999-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n \r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES USING THE UW-CIMSS ALGORITHM SHOW THAT\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF CINDY PEAKED THIS MORNING.  A RECENT 3-HR AVERAGE\r\nOF 5.9 SUPPORTS ABOUT 115 KT.  CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 127\r\nAND 115 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT\r\n120 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT WILL PROBABLY BE LOWERED TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 335/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nCINDY WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS AND\r\nACCELERATE THEREAFTER.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR CINDY TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE RADII OF THE 12 FOOT SEAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON NUMEROUS\r\nSHIP OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n  \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 31.3N  58.8W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 32.6N  58.9W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 34.5N  57.9W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 36.7N  55.6W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 39.5N  52.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 45.5N  41.0W    70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":41,"Date":"1999-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BECOMING NORTH...360/7.  THIS CHANGE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WV IMAGERY TO BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW.\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MINOR WARMING OF THE CENTRAL CLOUDS.  COLDEST\r\nTOPS ARE OCCURRING MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AN INDICATION\r\nOF WESTERLY SHEAR.  OBJECTIVELY DETERMINED T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING\r\nBUT THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS HOLDING THE WIND SPEED AT 120 KT\r\nFOR ONE MORE ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH DROPPING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCLERATE CINDY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...WHICH IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED...AND TAKES THE HURRICANE\r\nINTO COOLER WATERS WHERE A TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS SHOULD\r\nOCCUR BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 31.9N  58.5W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 33.0N  58.3W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 34.9N  56.8W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 37.2N  54.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  50.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  40.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":42,"Date":"1999-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING CONTINUES TO SHIFT TOWARD THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nHEADING HAS AN EAST COMPONENT...010/10.  AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO\r\nACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THE WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nDECREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE LESS RAGGED LOOKING.  OBJECTIVELY\r\nDETERMINED T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND NOW SHOW THE WIND SPEED AT\r\n110 KT. \r\n \r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH DROPPING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE CINDY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nIN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF RECURVATURE BUT NOW IS\r\nDISAGREEING ON THE SPEED.  GFDL AND UKMET DO NOT ACCELERATE THE\r\nSYSTEM AS FAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AVN AND BAM MODELS\r\nSHOW GREATER ACCELERATIONS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND STILL ALLOWS FOR THE FASTER ACCELERATION.  AS\r\nNOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO COOLER\r\nWATERS WHERE A TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS SHOULD OCCUR BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 33.0N  58.2W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 34.3N  57.1W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 36.6N  55.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 39.6N  51.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 42.1N  47.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 47.0N  36.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":43,"Date":"1999-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY IS MOVING 020/10 AND IS ALREADY WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nSTEERING OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT AND\r\nFUTURE PATTERN FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT AT\r\nDIFFERENT SPEEDS.  CINDY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nBEGINS TO WEAKEN. THE EYE IS NOT LONGER DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nAND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO BANDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KNOTS.  CINDY SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nMOVE OVER CALLER WATERS...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 33.5N  58.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 35.0N  57.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 37.8N  53.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  50.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 42.5N  45.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 47.5N  33.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":44,"Date":"1999-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY IS MOVING 025/7 AND IS ALREADY WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST AS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...CINDY SHOULD\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE WHILE THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN WEAKENS. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY WELL\r\nDEFINED...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KNOTS. \r\nCINDY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED. CINDY IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n   \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 34.1N  57.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 35.0N  56.8W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 36.5N  54.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 39.0N  51.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 42.0N  46.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 47.5N  33.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":45,"Date":"1999-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION ON IR IMAGES...BUT THE SATELLITE ANALYSES DO SUGGEST A\r\nMORE EASTWARD TRACK THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE ENE...065/11.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE T/CI OF\r\n4.5/5.0...SO 90 KT WILL AGAIN BE USED AS THE INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND\r\nSPEED.\r\n \r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL NE MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS WITH THE WESTERLIES GRADUALLY TAKING CINDY INTO COLDER WATER. \r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH A TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTATUS AROUND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA SHIP 220 NM SE OF THE CENTER REPORTED WINDS NEAR 25 KT AT 00Z. \r\nTHIS IS THE BASIS FOR DECREASING THE WIND RADII.\r\n \r\nRAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 34.6N  55.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 35.4N  53.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 37.1N  51.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 39.2N  47.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 41.9N  43.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  32.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":46,"Date":"1999-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 1999\r\n \r\nAN EYE WAS APPARENT FOR SEVERAL SATELLITE PHOTOS BETWEEN 3 AND 4Z\r\nAND ALLOWED FOR A REASONABLE FIX AND INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION.  THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS...BASED ON CI NUMBERS.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION WAS CALCULATED TO BE O65/11.\r\n\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL NE MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS WITH THE WESTERLIES GRADUALLY TAKING CINDY INTO COLDER WATER.\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH A TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTATUS AROUND 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 35.0N  54.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 36.0N  53.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 38.0N  49.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 40.6N  45.6W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 43.5N  40.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 50.0N  29.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":47,"Date":"1999-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 1999\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY CHANGE THIS MORNING IS THAT SOME RELOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER IS REQUIRED...AS CINDY WAS PUSHED AHEAD A LITTLE TOO FAST ON\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH COMING OFF THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. COAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO CARRY THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED...BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL LOCATION.\r\n\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEARING HAS CAUSED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 80 KNOTS.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS\r\nCINDY MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS\r\nPREDICTED IN 48 HOURS...AS CINDY SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE MID-\r\nLATITUDES BY THAT TIME.    \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 35.6N  54.4W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 37.0N  52.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 39.0N  49.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 41.5N  45.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 45.0N  38.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 51.0N  24.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":48,"Date":"1999-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 1999\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EVEN ON VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION HAS NOT\r\nYET TAKEN PLACE.  NONETHELESS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INFLUENCING CINDY SOON.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TWO...AND ROUGHLY\r\nFOLLOWS THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n\r\nSHEARING CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE DAY. \r\nWEAKENING IS PREDICTED AS CINDY ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATERS.  IT IS\r\nEXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 36.3N  54.0W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 38.0N  51.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 41.0N  47.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 44.0N  42.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 47.0N  37.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 52.0N  25.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cindy","Adv":49,"Date":"1999-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY IS EXPERIENCING SOME VERITCAL WIND SHEAR WITH MULTICHANNEL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 70 KTS...IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH RECENT TAFB...SAB AND AFGW DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...\r\nIN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...PER UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN \r\nCIMSS ANALYSES AND THE 18Z AVN FORECASTS...AND PROGRESSIVELY \r\nCOOLER WATERS.  \r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT CINDY HAS BEGUN \r\nTO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...PER PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/18 KTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED BY 36 HRS OR SO AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT...AND THE ACCOMPANYING DEVELOPING\r\nLOW PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...POSITIONED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 38.5N  52.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 41.0N  48.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 44.5N  43.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 51.0N  29.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  15.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":50,"Date":"1999-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999\r\n \r\nCINDY CONTINUES EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 60 KTS...BASED UPON TAFB...SAB AND AFGW\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THUS...CINDY IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...\r\nAND ALL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT CINDY WILL MERGE...WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS INTERACTING WITH IT NOW.\r\n \r\nCINDY CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE SHORT WAVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/20.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS REFLECTS THE MERGED SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 38.8N  49.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 41.5N  47.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 44.0N  42.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 44.7N  38.6W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 44.7N  35.3W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 42.5N  28.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":51,"Date":"1999-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT CINDY IS RAPIDLY BECOMING\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MUCH STRONGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHICH IS\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. CINDY OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 20-25 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON CINDY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER. FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON\r\nDC.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 41.5N  47.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 43.5N  44.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 46.0N  39.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  34.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS AS TO THE ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FIVE THIS MORNING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY A 35 KT REPORT FROM SHIP WZJF. HOWEVER...THE WIND\r\nDIRECTION AT THIS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHIP IS UNCHANGED OVER\r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS A POORLY DEFINED OR ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION. SHIP 3FOB5...LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES WEST OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER...SUPPORTS THIS IDEA BY REPORTING EAST WINDS 5 KT.\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nSTARTING AT 12Z.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION\r\nTHAT LOOK LIKE CENTERS...THUS THE LOCATION CONFIDENCE AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONFIDENCE ARE LOW. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT\r\n295/7 FOR THIS ADVISORY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWEAKENING THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nDIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THESE INDICATE THE CYCLONE\r\nMAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS... WITH A\r\nTRACK OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE EASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nNHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...WHICH SIX HOURS AGO WAS CALLING\r\nFOR A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK...IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE NOAA JET MISSION YESTERDAY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE LEFT\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL IN ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SUCH IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER\r\nREACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...AND THAT THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL WEAK...NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES\r\nWILL BE ISSUED FOR THE BAHAMAS OR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AT\r\nTHIS TIME. HOWEVER...THESE MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 21.5N  69.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.9N  70.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.5N  71.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 23.3N  72.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N  74.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.0N  76.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND SO FAR IT HAS FOUND A BROAD ILL DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nWITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS WELL TO THE EAST THE POSSIBLE CENTER. U.S.\r\nNAVY BUOYS ALSO INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION AND SURFACE PRESSURES\r\nOF THE ORDER OF 1008 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 8 MB IN 24 HOURS. NORMALLY\r\nTHIS IS AN INDICATION OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM.  BECAUSE THE CENTER IS\r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THERE\r\nPROBABLY WILL BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS OF THE LOCATION AND THE MOTION\r\nWHILE THE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZING. GLOBAL MODELS REMOVE THE CURRENT\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE A\r\nHURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS 290/08.  MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS BRING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND THIS WOULD CREATE A PATTERN FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nGRADUALLY NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...THIS TURN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR \r\nCLOSE TO THE COAST...THEREFORE RESIDENTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 22.5N  71.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.8N  72.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 24.5N  75.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 28.0N  78.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA AND\r\nCLOUD WIND VECTORS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DENNIS IS BROAD AND POORLY\r\nORGANIZED.  MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING A 200MB RIDGE OVER THE SYSTEM...A PATTERN WHICH FAVORS\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  SHIPS MODELS ALSO FORECASTS DENNIS TO BE A HURRICANE\r\nIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS 295/09.  MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD CREATE A PATTERN FOR THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD...A MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nEMPHASIZED BY THE LATEST GFDL RUN TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nPOTENTIAL THREAT SHIFTED NORTHWARD TOWARD GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS TURN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nAND RESIDENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nCOAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 23.2N  71.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 23.8N  72.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 24.7N  74.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 25.7N  75.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  77.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 30.0N  77.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES THIS EVENING SHOW THAT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS\r\nREMAINS BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED. THE U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY GATHERING DATA IN THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nLATEST VORTEX MESSAGE FROM THIS MISSION INDICATES THAT THE CENTER\r\nIS A TAD SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LAST ADVISORY POSITION. THIS PLACES\r\nTHE CENTER WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE RE-FORMING TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nRECON POSITION. WITH THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY AND BROAD NATURE\r\nOF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 KTS\r\n...WHICH IS BASED ON A 24-HR MEAN.  \r\n\r\nALL OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION\r\nOF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWEST MOTION FOLLOWED BY\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REFLECT THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NHC TRACK IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL OUTPUT. THIS\r\nIS ALSO SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION/POSITION ESTIMATE. \r\n\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER DENNIS APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED.\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW LIGHT \r\nSHEAR CONDITIONS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER LEVEL \r\nRIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES THE NORTHWARD TURN CLOSE TO THE U.S.\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST POSING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO GEORGIA AND THE\r\nCAROLINAS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 22.9N  71.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 23.4N  73.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 24.3N  74.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 25.9N  75.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 27.5N  77.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 30.5N  77.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nTHE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF DENNIS REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY...BUT APPEARS TO STILL BE EXPOSED WEST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION. SATELLITE CENTER LOCATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE OVER 60\r\nMILES APART...WHICH ADDS TO THE LOW LOCATION CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SET TO 285/7 AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN\r\n40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE 00Z AVIATION MODEL WAS WEAKER WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...\r\nWITH THE RESULT THAT AVN-BASED GUIDANCE TAKES THE STORM FURTHER WEST\r\nTHAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND\r\nADJUSTS THE TRACK TO THE LEFT AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. IT IS NOTEWORTHY THE AVN IS THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE\r\nTROUGH...AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS USE A STRONGER\r\nTROUGH TO TURN DENNIS MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE ANTICYCLONE OVER DENNIS...THE CONVECTION IS DISPLACED\r\nEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AS IF THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED. IT MAY\r\nBE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS\r\nPRODUCING A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT IS UNDERCUTTING DENNIS'\r\nANTICYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED BY 5 KT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE TO REFLECT THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT TO\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES CHANGES IN THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS\r\nIN THE BAHAMAS. ADDITIONALLY...RESIDENTS ALONG THE ENTIRE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 23.1N  72.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 23.5N  74.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N  75.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.5N  76.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 27.0N  77.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  78.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nRECON INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE DECREASED ONLY TO 1004\r\nMB...NOT MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY. HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTER OF DENNIS IS BETTER DEFINED TODAY BUT\r\nSTILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION. DESPITE MODELS FORECASTING A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM...IT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND SHEAR CONTINUES. \r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL OUTFLOW IS NOW BEGINNING TO BECOME BETTER\r\nESTABLISHED...AS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS AND CONVECTION CONTINUES\r\nTO INCREASE.  BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THEREFORE...DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36\r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS NEARLY STATIONARY AS INDICATED BY RECON DATA...PERHAPS\r\nBECAUSE IT IS STILL IN A FORMATIVE STAGE BUT IS FORECAST TO RESUME A\r\nSLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK LATER TODAY. THE MAIN PLAYER IS THE LARGE\r\nMID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE\r\nALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION OF\r\nTHE TROUGH WITH DENNIS IS CRITICAL BECAUSE IT MAY DETERMINE IF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD OR NOT.  IF DENNIS\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE LITTLE AND MISSES THE TROUGH...THIS WOULD GIVE\r\nTIME FOR THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS\r\nTHE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.   THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN\r\nTWO SOLUTIONS...GFDL WITH BAM... AND NOGAPS WITH UK...MODELS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 23.3N  72.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 23.5N  73.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 24.2N  75.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N  76.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  77.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 30.0N  78.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO PARAGRAPH TWO...DANNY TO DENNIS... \r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING \r\nIN ORGANIZATION.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL LOW-CLOUDS MOVING AWAY FROM THE\r\nCIRCULATION IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STORM.  EARLIER\r\nINFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REVEALED THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAD GRADUALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD UNDER THE CONVECTION...INDICATING\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND INDEED...PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1000 MB AND WINDS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A 200 MB\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND THIS APPEARS TO BE MATERIALIZING.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WOULD CREATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL BRING DENNIS TO \r\nABOUT 90 TO 95 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.  SINCE THESE MODELS ARE THE BEST\r\nGUIDANCE AVAILABLE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A \r\n95-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nDENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE WHILE REORGANIZING.  HOWEVER...A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST GRADUAL TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. LATEST RUN FROM\r\nGLOBAL AND TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH ALONG\r\nTHE EAST COAST WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER DENNIS NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWARD.  CONSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH INDICATE THE PRIMARY THREAT IS NORTHWARD\r\nTOWARD THE CAROLINAS. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 23.1N  72.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 23.4N  72.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N  74.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N  77.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  78.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER CENTER FIX SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT DENNIS HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AS ANTICIPATED\r\nIN THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n300/3 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY STEER DENNIS ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST HEADING BEFORE\r\nPULLING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HRS. THE 00Z TRACK MODEL\r\nSUITE GENERALLY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO.  BAMD CONTINUES TO BE THE\r\nLEFT-MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHILE NOGAPS MOVES DENNIS ON A\r\nGENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HRS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH LBAR AND THE 18Z GFDL RUN.  THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION/POSITION\r\nESTIMATE.  ANOTHER SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION IS BEING FLOWN THIS EVENING\r\nBY THE NOAA G-IV AND P-3 AIRCRAFT TO COLLECT UPPER LEVEL DATA AROUND\r\nDENNIS. THIS DATA WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE 00Z NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SUITE.\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 998 MB...A 10 MB DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HRS...AND WINDS OF 67 KTS\r\nAT 1500 FEET. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT\r\n55 KTS. THE LATEST RECON FIX AS WELL AS SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME\r\nNORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS/UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SUPPORTING THIS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ALSO\r\nACKNOWLEDGES THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW\r\nAND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO EVOLVE...GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHE 21Z REPORT FROM BUOY 41651 SHOWED 42 KT WINDS.  THIS DATA ALONG\r\nWITH THE LATEST HRD WIND ANALYSIS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE WIND RADII\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK STILL BRINGS DENNIS FAR ENOUGH WEST\r\nTO POSE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...ESPECIALLY THE CAROLINAS...\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST\r\nCOAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 23.7N  72.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 24.1N  73.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 24.8N  74.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 25.8N  75.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  77.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 30.5N  78.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 80 KT WINDS\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS...ONCE AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND ONCE ON\r\nA DROPSONDE. THE LAST REPORTED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 995 MB.\r\nDENNIS IS THUS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE STILL\r\nAPPEARS RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR\r\nTHE WEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LAST TWELVE HOURS OF RECONNAISSANCE FIXES...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 300/4. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR\r\nTHE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALL GUIDANCE...\r\nSAVE FOR THE BAMD AND BAMM WHICH CALL FOR A CONTINUING WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION...HAVE DENNIS RESPONDING TO THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH\r\nWITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND SOME ACCELERATION DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MOVING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD...BRINGING IT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 72 HOURS.\r\nGIVEN HOW DENNIS HAS BEEN RELUCTANT TO MOVE AS FAST AS THE GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SUGGESTED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE AVIATION...NOGAPS...AND SHIPS MODELS INDICATE LIGHT SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM...THE SHEARED APPEARANCE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS BLOWING\r\nEASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTER SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nIS NOT QUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE MODELS THINK. SINCE DENNIS HAS\r\nINTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW A VERY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND THEY ARE\r\nTHE BASIS FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL WIND RADII. THE FORECAST WIND\r\nRADII ARE A BLEND OF THE INITIAL CONDITIONS AND THE ANTICIPATION OF\r\nTHE WIND FIELD BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AS DENNIS INTENSIFIES.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING DENNIS FAR ENOUGH\r\nWEST TO POSE A THREAT TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nCAROLINAS...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 23.9N  73.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.2N  73.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.9N  74.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  76.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  77.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.0N  78.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT\r\nDENNIS IS NOT A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nTHAT IS NOT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN\r\nADDITION...AS HAS BEEN OBSERVED FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE\r\nLOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...IMPLYING A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW. SATELLITE\r\nCLOUD WIND VECTOR ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS THAT THERE IS NORTHWEST\r\nFLOW...AT SOME HIGH LEVEL...DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN.  ALL OF\r\nTHE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT DENNIS IS NOT STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\nBOTH GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS INSIST ON FORECASTING STRENGTHENING AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER DENNIS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAKES DENNIS A 95 KNOT-HURRICANE BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS.  LATEST GLOBAL\r\nAND TRACK MODEL RUNS..CONSISTENTLY...CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nSTEERED DENNIS NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THIS\r\nHAS BEEN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO PROVIDED SINCE YESTERDAY AND\r\nCONTINUES TO BE TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE 72-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nPOSITION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  ALL INTERESTS\r\nALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 24.3N  74.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 24.7N  74.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  76.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  77.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  78.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 33.5N  78.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n\r\nDENNIS CONTINUES TO BE WITHIN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND REALLY...IT\r\nDOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL HURRICANE ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE\r\nONLY SIGN OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING WAS A REPORT FROM THE LATEST\r\nRECON SUGGESTING THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  WE HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING THE POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION OF DENNIS...ASSUMING A\r\nRELAXATION OF THE SHEAR... AS PREDICTED BY THE MODELS...BUT THE FACT\r\nIS...THAT THE SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...\r\nI CAN NOT IGNORE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS DENNIS TO A 95 KNOTS AND\r\nTHE GFDL THAT DROPS THE PRESSURE TO 930 MB BY 72 HOURS. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAKES DENNIS A 95\r\nKNOT-HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING MOST OF THE DAY. \r\nTHE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAPPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER DENNIS NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH...DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY INDICATING A NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN\r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS.  LATEST AVN RUN IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUK...GDFL AND LBAR MODELS.  THESE MODELS BRING DENNIS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS BY 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 24.5N  74.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 25.1N  75.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  76.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  77.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 29.5N  78.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 33.5N  78.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF DENNIS STILL REFLECTS A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA IS RESTRICTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  MEANWHILE...THE\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE\r\nLAST 12-24 HRS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N60W. THERE HAVE BEEN NO INDICATIONS OF\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING WITH THE LATEST REPORTS RELAYED\r\nFROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOWING THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY...TO 992 MB. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO NOAA\r\nP-3 RADAR IMAGERY...AND TRMM SATELLITE IMAGERY...EARLIER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WHICH SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL\r\nFEATURE. ALTHOUGH THESE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNS...THE CENTER IS MORE \r\nINVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN 24 HRS AGO. THEREFORE...WE \r\nWILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...CONTINGENT ON THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR DIMINISHING...CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST ADVISORY AND IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL. THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE LATEST HRD ANALYSIS.  \r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...USING A 12-24 HR MEAN...IS\r\n300/05 KTS. ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK AT THIS\r\nTIME...DENNIS SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND TO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE COLD\r\nLOW PROGED TO CUT OFF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD PULL THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nAND IS MIDWAY BETWEEN NOGAPS AND THE UKMET. THE GFDL IS SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THIS TRACK.  \r\n\r\nAFTER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE GOVERNEMT OF THE BAHAMAS...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR NEW PROVIDENCE...GRADN BAHAMA AND\r\nTHE BERRY ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...PRIMARILY GEORIA AND THE\r\nCAROLINAS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 25.0N  74.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  75.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 26.3N  76.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.3N  77.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 29.0N  78.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 33.5N  79.0W    95 KTS\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06 BASED ON RECON FIXES.  THE 00Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB CUT OFF LOW DROPPING INTO THE\r\nNORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS AND THIS FORCES THE BAM MODELS\r\nTO MOVE THE HURRICANE RATHER CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST\r\nBEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD.  ALL OF THE OTHER MODELS KEEP THE\r\nHURRICANE FURTHER EAST WHICH KEEPS THE HIGHEST THREAT TO THE\r\nCAROLINAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 24\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE SIGNAL OF THE AVIATION MODEL. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL AND TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...LBAR AND HPC FORECAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTAKES THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 24 HOURS AND\r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON MISSION REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE 65\r\nKNOT RANGE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.\r\nBUT THERE HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT BURSTING CDO PATTERN FOR THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AND THE RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 988 MB...DOWN 5\r\nMB IN 6 HOURS.  ALSO THE RECON MISSION REPORTED AN EYEWALL FORMING.\r\nTHIS IS ALL IN THE FACE OF WHAT APPEARED TO BE WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH\r\nHAD BEEN IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  SO RATHER\r\nTHAN DECREASE THE WIND SPEED TO 65 KNOTS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nKEPT AT 70 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST...AS BEFORE...IS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGHTENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ANTICIPATION OF LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND CONTINUED WARM SSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE HIGHEST THREAT TO THE CAROLINAS...BUT\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO FLORIDA AND ALL\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NORTH\r\nCAROLINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 25.4N  75.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 25.9N  76.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 26.4N  77.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 27.4N  78.4W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 28.8N  79.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  79.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nDENNIS IS FINALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE THE SHEAR APPEARS\r\nTO BE RELAXING BUT A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH...CENTERED OVER WESTERN\r\nCUBA...IS STILL INTERFERING WITH THE OUTFLOW OF DENNIS.  THE CENTER\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS NOW IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 5.O AND 4.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE.  HOWEVER...LATEST FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS 988 MB\r\nWITH A 20 NMI EYE BUT WINDS NO HIGHER THAT 70 KNOTS.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY CONTINUES AT 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I HAVE NO OPTION BUT\r\nTO FORECAST STRENGTHENING BECAUSE BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS DO SO. \r\nACTUALLY... THESE MODELS ARE THE ONLY TOOLS AVAILABLE TO THE\r\nFORECASTER. \r\n  \r\nDENNIS STILL MOVING 300/06.  THE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WHILE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER\r\nTHE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS SHOULD\r\nMOVE SLOWLY WHILE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS PARALLELING THE EAST FLORIDA COAST.\r\n\r\nTHIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE THREATENING THE UNITED STATED\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE PRIMARILY THE GFDL.  LATEST RUN FROM THE AVN SHOWS A TRACK\r\nA LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST BUT I WILL NOT BE\r\nSURPRISE IF THE FORECAST SWINGS BACK TO THE RIGHT LATER ON...AS THE\r\nMODEL HAS BEEN DOING LATELY.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 25.7N  75.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.2N  76.7W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N  78.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 28.0N  79.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nDENNIS IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...IN FACT IT IS\r\nBETTER THAT IT IS EVER BEEN SO FAR.   IT HAS AN EYE TYPE FEATURE AND\r\nWELL DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT A LITTLE BIT RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE WEST.  HOWEVER...GROUND TRUTH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LATEST A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE\r\nNOT INCREASED AND THE PRESSURE IS NOT DROPPING YET.  THIS SHOWS ONCE\r\nAGAIN...THE UNCERTAINTIES NOT ONLY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST BUT\r\nALSO IN THE ESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  NEVERTHELESS...WITH\r\nBOTH GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING AND SUCH A GOOD\r\nPATTERN ON SATELLITE PICTURES...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND MODELS... IN GENERAL...ARE \r\nCONSISTENTLY TURNING DENNIS NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD ON A TRACK\r\nPARALLEL AND NOT FAR FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...ONLY\r\nA SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN AN\r\nINCREASE OF THE WINDS NEAR THE COAST.  THEREFORE...WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...THE 72-HOUR FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  AT THAT TIME...THE TROUGH MAY BE GONE AND\r\nBECOME REPLACED BY A HIGH. THIS COULD RESULT IN A VERY SLOW MOVING\r\nHURRICANE WHICH COULD WAIT FOR THE NEXT TROUGH TO  MOVE THE\r\nHURRICANE OUT TO SEA OR REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE COASTS OF\r\nNORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 26.0N  76.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 26.7N  77.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  78.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 28.5N  79.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 33.0N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nDENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nEVENING. RADAR IMAGES RELAYED FROM THE NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT NOW SHOW A FULLY FORMED EYE...35-40 MILES IN DIAMETER.\r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nIS NOW 980 MB...A 12 MB DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HRS....ALTHOUGH THE\r\nWINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...-75C...WITH\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. ALL THESE SIGNALS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS BEGINNING. WE WILL\r\nHOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY UNTIL HIGHER\r\nWINDS ARE CONFIRMED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH BRINGS\r\nDENNIS TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE BY 48 HRS.\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FIXES THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 3-6 HRS. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...300/06 KT...IS BASED ON A 12-24 HR MEAN.\r\nDENNIS REMAINS IN A LIGHT STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  THE DATA FROM THE\r\nNOAA G-IV SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION AROUND THE HURRICANE SHOWS A 500MB\r\nRIDGE ALONG 31N/32N FROM BERMUDA TO NEAR 78W. THIS FEATURE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER DENNIS ON A SLOW WEST-NORTH TO NORTHWEST COURSE\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THINGS BECOME A BIT MORE\r\nUNCERTAIN AS THE IMPACT OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...CUTS OFF OVER THE\r\nGULF COASTAL REGION.  THE EXACT LOCATION OF THIS LOW WILL HELP\r\nDETERMINE...IN PART...THE STEERING OF DENNIS NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE 00Z TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHEIR 18Z COUNTERPARTS WITH BAMS AND BAMM THE WESTERN-MOST OF THE\r\nTRACKS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL-BASED GUIDANCE TURNS DENNIS AWAY FROM\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST COAST BEYOND 48 HRS HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT FOR THE 00Z\r\nMODEL CYCLE...WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE G-IV DATA...BEFORE MAKING ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nREPRESENTS AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES/WARNINGS HOWEVER...ALL\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 26.4N  76.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 26.9N  77.3W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 27.6N  78.2W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 28.8N  78.9W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 30.0N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 32.5N  79.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\nCORRECTION TO INITIAL WIND SPEED...70 KNOTS NOT 75 KNOTS\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF\r\nMOTION.  THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD BENEFIT FROM THE SYNOPTIC\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION FROM WHICH DATA WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL.  EVEN SO...THE 06Z MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM\r\nEARLIER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ALSO DOES NOT CHANGE\r\nMUCH EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHERE THE FORECAST POINT IS MOVED ABOUT 90\r\nNMI FURTHER EAST.  THIS POINT IS NEAR THE GFDL FORECAST AND WEST OF\r\nALL THE OTHER MODELS EXCEPT THE BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON PRESSURE IS 975 MB WHICH IS DOWN 13 MB IN 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WIND FROM THE RECON MISSION WAS 78 KNOTS AT\r\n700 MB ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SO 70 KNOTS IS STILL A\r\nGOOD SURFACE WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH A CLOSED EYE AND\r\nFALLING PRESSURE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOON\r\nAS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TO 90 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...FOLLOWING THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 26.7N  76.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 27.2N  77.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 27.8N  78.4W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 29.0N  79.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 30.4N  79.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 33.0N  78.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n...CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO 20 \r\nLATEST MODEL RUNS ARE SOMEWHAT ENCOURAGING.  UNANIMOUSLY...ALL\r\nMODELS ARE GRADUALLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST ON A TRACK PARALLEL AND CLOSE TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND\r\nNORTH CAROLINA COASTS.  THE UK MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING\r\nTHE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.\r\nTHE GFDL IS THE MOST CONSERVATIVE...FORECASTING DENNIS OVER THE\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST  HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWS DOWN\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nIS BASED ON LONG RANGE MODELS...NOGAPS...MRF AND EMCWF WHICH\r\nMAINTAIN THE HURRICANE MEANDERING OVER NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA AND\r\nADJACENT WATERS...BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWITH THIS TRACK IN MIND...NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE\r\nNECESSARY AT THIS TIME.   HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OR AN\r\nACCELERATION WILL REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A\r\nPORTION OF SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY DROPPING AND SATELLITE CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE\r\nSTILL LACKS A WELL DEFINED INNER CORE.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nBRINGS DENNIS TO 100 KNOTS...BASED PRIMARILY ON SHIPS MODEL AND THE\r\nFACT THAT BOTH THE GDFL AND THE GFDL COUPLED MODELS FORECAST A\r\nPRESSURE DROP TO BETWEEN 920 AND 940 RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 28.0N  77.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 28.6N  78.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 29.8N  78.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 31.0N  78.7W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 32.0N  78.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING-TYPE EYE...ALTHOUGH RAGGED IN\r\nAPPEARANCE. 18/22Z RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT SHOWED \r\nA BROAD ILL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE WHILE QUOTING THE AIR FORCE THEY\r\nCOULD NOT SEE IT ON RADAR AND IT WAS NOT DISCERNABLE VISUALLY.  \r\nTHE LATEST RECON REPORTS THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS\r\n969 MB...A 11 MB DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 90 KTS SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT HRD\r\nWIND ANALYSIS...ALTHOUGH SURFACE DROPSONDE WINDS ARE LOWER. THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING FORECAST IS MAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nWHICH BRINGS DENNIS TO A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IN 24 HRS.\r\n\r\nWITH SUCH A LARGE AND RAGGED EYE FEATURE...THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES\r\nBETWEEN THE AIR FORCE RECON FIXES AND THE LATEST RADAR FIX\r\nESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06 KTS. MOST OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO THEIR 18Z COUNTERPARTS\r\nINDICATING THAT THE NEXT EAST COAST MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL\r\nPICK UP DENNIS AND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEAST JUST OFFSHORE WHILE THE\r\nGFDL BRINGS DENNIS NORTH-NORTHWEST/NORTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA BY\r\n72 HRS...SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH BY-PASSES THE HURRICANE. THIS\r\nSHOWS THE SPLIT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH SOME MOVING THE DENNIS OUT\r\nTO OPEN WATERS WHILE OTHER HINT KEEPING DENNIS NEAR THE COAST FOR A\r\nPROLONGED PERIOD. WITH THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nBRINGS DENNIS NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH TO JUST OFF THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST BY 48 HRS BEFORE TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHEAST...\r\nALBEIT AT A SLOWER MOTION THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE NEW TRACK... HURRICANE WATCHES WILL BE POSTED FOR THE\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTS.  A PORTION\r\nOF THE WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR\r\nHURRICANE WARNING SUNDAY MORNING.  DENNIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE WITH\r\nTHE 34-KT RADII EXTENDING 140 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND COULD\r\nIMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ...ALL INTERESTS\r\nALONG THE COASTS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DENNIS.    \r\n\r\nTHE 50-KT AND 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE HRD WIND\r\nANALYSIS.    \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 28.6N  77.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 29.6N  78.2W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 30.9N  78.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 32.3N  78.7W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 33.5N  78.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 35.0N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n\r\nTHE INITIL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW THE HURRICANE MOVING NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A STRONG\r\nTROUGH DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BUT THE GFDL SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS\r\nMAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND COULD MEANDER OFF THE MID\r\nATLANTIC COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT ALL THE WAY TO THE NEAREST DYNAMIC\r\nMODELS.  THIS BIAS TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE IS A RESULT OF NOT\r\nWANTING TO DEPART FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TOO\r\nDRASTICALLY.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IN COMBINATION WITH THE LARGE RADIUS OF 34-KNOT\r\nWINDS REQUIRES THAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING BE ISSUED FOR SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA AND PART OF NORTH CAROLINA.  THERE IS PROBABLY ONLY A 50\r\nPERCENT OR LESS CHANCE THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL ACTUALLY\r\nOCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO\r\nJUSTIFY THESE WARNINGS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON RECON WIND OBSERVATIONS...THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 85\r\nKNOTS WITH AN EXPECTATION OF SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  THIS IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 29.4N  78.2W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 30.3N  78.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 31.8N  78.7W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 33.0N  77.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 34.0N  75.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 36.0N  73.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR 9 KNOTS...NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING\r\nOFF THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST IN 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT THAT SHOULD CAUSE DENNIS TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST...\r\nAWAY FROM THE COAST.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT THE TROUGH WILL PULL OUT LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...AND LEAVE DENNIS BEHIND.  THE CURRENT THINKING IS\r\nTHAT...IF THIS OCCURS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE COAST\r\nBY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nON SATELLITE IMAGES...DENNIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-ORGANIZED\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED-\r\nLOOKING.  A GPS DROPSONDE...RELEASED INTO THE EYEWALL BY THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS...MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 109 KNOTS.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE\r\nSITUATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF DENNIS SHOULD ASSIST THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SINCE THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE\r\nWARM...LARGE-SCALE FACTORS FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nLACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IS A NEGATIVE FACTOR. \r\nTHEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED AT THIS\r\nTIME.  \r\n \r\nPASCH \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 30.4N  78.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 31.7N  78.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  77.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 34.0N  76.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 34.7N  74.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  72.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n \r\nLATEST FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHT EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...WHICH\r\nHAS BEEN ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECASTS.  THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nDENNIS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVE DENNIS\r\nBEHIND.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED MARKEDLY\r\nIN 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT THE CENTER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY FAR FROM\r\nTHE COAST BY THAT TIME.  NONETHELESS A BLOCKING HIGH...WHICH SHOULD\r\nREPLACE THE NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH...MAY CAUSE DENNIS TO MEANDER OFF\r\nTHE COAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.\r\n\r\nTHERE WAS ONLY A SLIGHT PRESSURE DROP REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS THIS AFTERNOON...SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED.  THE\r\nINNER CORE STRUCTURE IS STILL NOT WELL DEFINED.  DENNIS HAS A\r\nLARGE... RAGGED BANDING-TYPE EYE 45 TO 50 N MI ACROSS.  SUCH\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS\r\nFAVORABLE.   MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS COULD STILL BE ATTAINED WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND ITS NEARNESS TO THE COAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE\r\nWARNINGS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 31.5N  78.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 32.8N  77.6W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  75.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 35.0N  74.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 35.5N  72.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 35.5N  70.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 963 MB...A 4 MB DROP OVER THE LAST 6 HRS.  THE\r\nEYE REMAINS RATHER RAGGED IN APPEARANCE...ABOUT 35 NMI IN DIAMETER\r\n...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION HAS NOW ROTATED AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE CENTER. THE MOST RECENT HRD WIND ANALYSIS...WHICH\r\nINCORPORATES STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA FROM THE\r\nNOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT...SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE 90 KTS INTENSITY.  WITH\r\nTHE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS\r\nTHE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...100 KT BY 24 HRS.\r\nREGARDLESS...THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS HURRICANE AN EXTENSIVE PORTION\r\nOF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL BE IMPACTED. \r\n\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AND RADAR SUGGEST THAT DENNIS\r\nIS NOW MOVING ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING...020/12 KT. THE SYNOPTIC\r\n-BASED REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE LAST PACKAGE AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. STEERS DENNIS ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 36 HRS.  BEYOND 36 HRS...SOME OF THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BY-PASS THE HURRICANE LEAVING DENNIS\r\nJUST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 72 HRS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE TRACK OF DENNIS.\r\nBLOCKING HIGH...WHICH SHOULD REPLACE THE NORTHEAST U.S. TROUGH...\r\nMAY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MEANDER OFF THE COAST NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION. \r\n\r\nAFTER COORDINATION WITH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...THE \r\nHURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA SOUTHWARD WILL BE DISCONTINUED.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 32.5N  77.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 33.7N  76.8W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 34.7N  75.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 35.5N  73.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 36.0N  72.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 36.0N  70.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/10.  THE AVIATION MODEL...GFDL\r\n...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...ALL SHOW THE HURRICANE NOT GETTING PICKED UP\r\nBY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. \r\nSO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES THE HURRICANE NORTHEAST TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HOURS WITH NO MOVEMENT FROM 36 THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  THE GFDL MODEL TURNS THE HURRICANE BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nTHREATENS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TEND STAY A\r\nFEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  IT IS OF COURSE\r\nNOT POSSIBLE TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHICH WAY THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE\r\nAFTER IT GETS LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH.  THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS\r\nTHE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 35 NMI OF THE OUTER BANKS OF N CAROLINA IN\r\n12 HOURS SO THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED A LITTLE NORTHWARD TO\r\nTHE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.  \r\n\r\nTHE LATEST RECON PRESSURE IS 963 MB.  RECON DATA SHOWS THAT THE MAX\r\nWIND SPEED IS 85 KNOTS INSTEAD OF 90.  THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF\r\nSOME INTENSIFICATION AS RADAR SHOWS THAT THE EYE APPEARS TO BE\r\nGETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 33.3N  77.3W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 34.4N  76.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 35.0N  74.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 35.5N  72.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 35.5N  72.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 35.5N  72.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 1999\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...A\r\nPOSITIVE SIGN...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS A SHORT TERM\r\nACCELERATION.  A HOPEFULLY REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/13. \r\nALTHOUGH THE GFDL INDICATES A SHARP TURN NORTHWESTWARD BACK TOWARDS\r\nTHE COAST...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE MOVES DENNIS SLOWLY AWAY FROM\r\nTHE U.S.  THE AVN BEYOND 48 H SHOWS DENNIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nDOUGHNUT-SHAPED RIDGE...AS THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR\r\nSHIFT.  IF THIS VERIFIES...DENNIS WILL MOVE LITTLE...AND THIS IS THE\r\nOPTION FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE MOST RECENT PRESSURE FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 965\r\nMB...UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FIX.  THE FIRST SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS PEAKED AND WILL SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  THE INNER CORE OF DENNIS HAS NEVER\r\nLOOKED VERY WELL ORGANIZED...BUT IF THIS STRUCTURE IMPROVES\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE HAVE ALMOST\r\nNO SKILL AT FORECASTING THESE KINDS OF CHANGES.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 33.8N  75.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 34.6N  74.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 35.1N  73.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 35.5N  73.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 35.5N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 35.5N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 1999\r\n \r\nAS EXPECTED...THE MOTION OF DENNIS IS STARTING TO SLOW DOWN A\r\nBIT...FROM 18 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE EARLIER\r\nACCELERATION SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN RELATED TO A MID-UPPER LEVEL\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMUM DIGGING SOUTH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS SPLIT AGAIN...EVEN MORE SO THAN EARLIER...WITH THE GFDL\r\nINSISTING ON A HARD LEFT TURN AND LANDFALL IN NORTHERN NORTH\r\nCAROLINA WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THIS IS THE REASON THAT MOST OF THE\r\nWARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP WITH THIS PACKAGE.  THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nTAKES THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE BEFORE SLOWING IT DOWN.  GIVEN THE\r\nMOTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BY ABOUT 60 MILES...AND IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE HIGHLY DIVERGENT BAMD/LBAR AND GFDL.  THE AVN BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS SHOWS DENNIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DOUGHNUT-SHAPED RIDGE...AS THE\r\nLONG-WAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR SHIFT.  IF THIS VERIFIES...\r\nDENNIS WILL MOVE LITTLE...AND THIS IS STILL THE OPTION FAVORED BY\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THE UPPER 960S ALL DAY.  AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 98 KNOTS IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  DROPSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS\r\nSHOW THAT DENNIS HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY EFFECTIVE AT BRINGING\r\nHIGH WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nLOWERED TO 80 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED\r\nIN THE SHORT RUN...BUT SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS DENNIS TO 48 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS DENNIS A HURRICANE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 34.7N  74.2W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 35.3N  72.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 35.6N  72.3W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 36.0N  72.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 36.0N  72.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 36.0N  72.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999\r\n \r\nAFTER ACCERATING TO 17 KNOTS FORWARD MOTION ON MONDAY...DENNIS HAS\r\nSLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n065/06.  ALTHOUGH I HAVE NOT SEEN THE 00Z AVIATION RUN...THE UKMET\r\nAND NOGAPS 00Z RUNS BOTH SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS\r\nWHILE CUT OFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT STEERING CURRENTS.  BOTH MODELS\r\nFORECAST A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND END UP A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSTARTING POSITION.  THE 18Z GFDL MODEL SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION\r\nMOVING DENNIS BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AFTER 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE...ENDING UP\r\nABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION IN 72 HOURS.  WITH THIS\r\nFORECAST...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WARNINGS EXCEPT THAT \r\nTHE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO NEW\r\nJERSEY.\r\n\r\nRECON DATA INDICATES THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 75 KNOTS AS THE\r\nCENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 977 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS ONLY A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND THIS HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ALSO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS OVER RATHER COLD SSTS.  SO THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW\r\nWEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 35.3N  72.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 35.5N  72.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 36.0N  72.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 36.0N  72.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 35.8N  73.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 35.0N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BECAUSE OF\r\nA MAJOR CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES\r\nARE SHIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH.  AT MID-LEVELS...DENNIS IS BECOMING\r\nSANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AREAS.  THEREFORE...THE MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE SLOW AND ERRATIC.  THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER IF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES MORE\r\nDOMINANT...THAN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD DEVELOP.  NO CHANGES\r\nHAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS SINCE DENNIS IS NO\r\nLONGER MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.\r\n \r\nCOOL DRY AIR HAS INVADED THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SO\r\nTHAT THERE IS NOW LITTLE...IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  DENNIS DOES NOT LOOK VERY TROPICAL AT THIS TIME.\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND ONLY\r\nA SLIGHT TEMPERATURE RISE AT THE CENTER.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT\r\nFAR FROM WARM WATERS AND THE AIR MASS COULD RECOVER...THERE IS A\r\nSLIGHT CHANCE THAT DENNIS COULD MAKE A COMEBACK.  OTHERWISE THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 35.3N  72.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 35.5N  73.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 35.5N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 35.5N  73.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 35.0N  73.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 35.0N  73.5W    50 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":32,"Date":"1999-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A NET WESTWARD MOTION\r\nOF THE CENTER AT 4 OR 5 KNOTS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT AN EASY\r\nONE.  IF ENOUGH RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS...THEN THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD MOVE TO THE COAST.  HOWEVER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU.S. AND FLORIDA COULD BLOCK THE FORWARD MOVEMENT.  EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE DIVERGENT...A ROUGH CONSENSUS OF THE MORE RELIABLE\r\nMODELS SUGGESTS A WEST TO SOUTHWEST MOTION DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS IDEA...BUT QUITE SLOW\r\nMAINLY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE MOTION AND FORECAST IS BACK TOWARD THE COAST...A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH IS PUT INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.\r\nANOTHER BIG QUESTION IS THE INTENSITY.  DENNIS WEAKENED BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE INTRUSION OF COOL DRY AIR INTO ITS CENTRAL CORE...AND LIKELY\r\nALSO BECAUSE OF STRONG HIGH-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  SINCE\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES HAVE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nNO NEW COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO THE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nDENNIS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 27 DEG\r\nC.  TROPICAL CYCLONES RARELY COME BACK AFTER ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN REMOVED.  THERE WAS A TRANSIENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...BUT THIS HAS FADED.  BECAUSE OF OUR LACK OF SKILL\r\nIN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...AND THE POSSIBILITY...ALBEIT\r\nSLIM... THAT DENNIS COULD RE-STRENGTHEN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMERELY MAINTAINS 65 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 35.1N  73.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 35.1N  74.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 35.0N  74.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 34.9N  75.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 34.7N  76.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 33.5N  77.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":33,"Date":"1999-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM...\r\n\r\nDENNIS CURRENTLY AS MUCH RESEMBLES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND. THE LATEST REPORTS FROM\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE A 987 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT...DOWN 15 KT FROM\r\nEARLIER TODAY. DENNIS IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/03. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND\r\nEASTERN U.S....WHICH WOULD FAVOR DENNIS MOVING ON A WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...EXISTING RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. COULD EITHER SLOW THIS MOTION OR DEFLECT DENNIS TO THE SOUTH.\r\nNHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS SCATTERED BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF\r\nBAMS...OVER KENTUCKY IN 72 HOURS...AND A98E...SHOWING A SOUTHWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM WITH THE AVN-BASED\r\nGUIDANCE IS THAT THE MODEL DEVELOPS A SPURIOUS LOOKING VORTEX EAST\r\nOF DENNIS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS MAY PRODUCE A MORE SOUTHWARD\r\nMOTION IN THE GUIDANCE THAN WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS GENERALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN. THE AVN AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON AN EAST-WEST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nDENNIS...WHICH IS CAUSING DIFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART. BOTH MODELS\r\nFORECAST STRONG SHEAR OVER DENNIS...WHICH IS SUSPECT DUE TO THE POOR\r\nINITIALIZATION. HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION AND A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM INSTEAD OF A RIDGE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WARMER SSTS MAY HELP\r\nHOLD THE INTENSITY UP.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...ANY SHORT TERM\r\nINCREASE IN THE CONVECTION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT\r\nUNTIL A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND IS ESTABLISHED.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 35.2N  73.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 35.2N  74.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 35.1N  75.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 35.0N  75.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  76.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 33.5N  77.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":34,"Date":"1999-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 01 1999\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AND CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...ONLY\r\nA FEW INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS...I AM TEMPTED TO DECLARE\r\nDENNIS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS TOO\r\nCLOSE TO THE COAST AND I PREFER NOT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH\r\nIR SATELLITE PICTURES.   LATEST RECON...A FEW HOURS AGO... MEASURED\r\n987 MB WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY CIRCULATION CENTER.   \r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW DENNIS OR ITS REMNANTS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THERE ARE NO REASONS TO\r\nCHANGE IT.   \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING.   HOWEVER...ANY\r\nUNEXPECTED SHORT TERM INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION COULD BRING THE\r\nSYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THEREFORE...WE ARE KEEPING THE\r\nHURRICANE WATCH AT THIS TIME BUT LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS\r\nMORNING WHEN A NEW RECON REACHES THE AREA AND VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME\r\nAVAILABLE.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL ALSO BE RECONSIDERED. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 35.0N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 35.0N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 34.8N  74.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 34.7N  75.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  75.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 33.0N  77.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":35,"Date":"1999-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FILLING AND THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nSPINNING DOWN SLOWLY.  LATEST ESTIMATE OF MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS IS\r\n50 KNOTS...BASED ON 80 PER CENT OF FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEEDS.  \r\n\r\nAS WAS STATED EARLIER...DENNIS DOES NOT LOOK VERY TROPICAL.  COOL\r\nDRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. OVERALL THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN OCCLUDED LOW.  STRONGEST WINDS ARE\r\nNOT CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  IT IS ONLY THE SPORADIC REDEVELOPMENT OF\r\nHEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE CENTER THAT GIVES A HINT OF TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.  BUT...SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...THE\r\nSYSTEM BARELY MEETS DVORAK CLASSIFICATION CRITERIA.\r\n\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO SHEAR ANY\r\nCONVECTION THAT TRIES TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER...AND PROHIBITS\r\nREDEVELOPMENT.  SINCE DENNIS HAS ALREADY LOST MOST OF ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...AND REGENERATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN 12 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE ALMOST NIL.  A SLOW WESTWARD TO\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE....AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 35.5N  73.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 35.3N  74.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 34.9N  75.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  75.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATRPPICAL\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 34.0N  76.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  77.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":36,"Date":"1999-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 1999\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  LAST RECON\r\nINDICATED A BAND OF CONVECTION FEEDING INTO THE CENTER...AND WSR-\r\n88D SHOWS THIS AS WELL.  SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MORE\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SO THE TREND TOWARD\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STATUS HAS APPARENTLY CEASED.  THE CYCLONE MAY BE\r\nUNDERGOING SOME SORT OF SUBTROPICAL EVOLUTION...WHEREIN THE CENTRAL\r\nCORE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION...IN AN AREA WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LESSENED.  IN\r\nFACT...THE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE CENTER\r\nMAY BE WEAKENING.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 50 KNOTS AND NO\r\nCHANGE IS PREDICTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO OUR LACK OF\r\nUNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF DENNIS.    \r\n\r\nA SLOW WESTWARD MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY...AROUND 270/3. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.   ALTHOUGH THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT VERY WELL\r\nDEFINED...THE PRIMARY PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE\r\nTHAT ENVELOPS DENNIS.   THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A\r\nGRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THEN\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THIS IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACKS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 35.5N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 35.4N  74.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 35.2N  75.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  75.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 34.5N  76.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":37,"Date":"1999-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 1999\r\n \r\nA CONVECTIVE BAND FLARED UP WEST OF THE CENTER OF DENNIS DURING\r\nTHE EVENING AND THEN WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS PULLED THE\r\nCENTER A LITTLE EASTWARD. THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...WITH RADAR\r\nAND SATELLITE CURRENTLY INDICATING LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. BASED ON THIS...AND PERIPHERAL OBSERVATIONS...THE MAXIMUM\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KT.\r\n\r\nGIVE THIS EASTWARD WOBBLE...THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS\r\nSTATIONARY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED INTO TWO\r\nPOSSIBILITIES. THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE BAMS...BAMM...AND\r\nNHC98UK...IS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION INTO NORTH CAROLINA IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE NEAR DENNIS SHIFTING TO THE EAST.\r\nTHE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND GFDL...IS FOR A\r\nMORE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.. EXAMINATION OF SURFACE ANALYSES\r\nAND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES BOTH OF THESE RIDGES MAY BE\r\nDEVELOPING AS FORECAST. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHERE ARE SO MANY FACTORS INVOLVED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THAT IT\r\nIS HARD TO KNOW WHERE TO BEGIN. FIRST...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...\r\nDENNIS MAY BE GOING THROUGH A SUBTROPICAL PHASE. THIS WOULD DELAY\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE PROCESSES. SECOND...VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR...WELL FORECAST BY\r\nTHE MODELS...INCREASES TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\nTHIRD...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...POORLY INITIALIZED IN THE MODELS...\r\nIS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR APPROACHING DENNIS FROM THE WEST. THIS MIGHT\r\nEITHER INCREASE CONVECTION OR INCREASE SHEAR. FOURTH...DENNIS HAS\r\nBEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND HAS LIKELY\r\nCOOLED OFF THE OCEAN UNDERNEATH IT. THIS WOULD HAMPER\r\nINTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT WARMER SSTS ARE PRESENT TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF\r\nSTREAM. GIVEN ALL THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS\r\nDENNIS AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 35.3N  73.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 35.3N  74.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 35.1N  75.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 34.9N  75.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 34.5N  76.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 33.5N  78.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":38,"Date":"1999-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 02 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOTHING NEW TO SAY ABOUT DENNIS.  LETS FACE IT...DENNIS\r\nCONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A INTERMITTENT\r\nPATCHES OF CONVECTION.  A SIMPLE INSPECTION OF THE FULL DISK GOES-8\r\nSHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DENNIS IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nBOTH SHIPS AND GFDL STRENGTHEN DENNIS AND IN GENERAL...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WOULD GO ALONG WITH THESE MODELS.  IN THIS CASE\r\n...REGENERATION IS NOT REALISTIC SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. \r\n\r\nTHE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FORECAST BY MODELS AS WELL AS THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET.  DENNIS REMAINS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY\r\n\r\nI HAVE THE SAME DILEMMA THAT I HAD YESTERDAY.  I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE\r\nA SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE STATUS WITHOUT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES OR RECON.   THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...KEEPING DENNIS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS OR SO\r\nAND THEN...MOVING IT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE STATUS OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL PROBABLY BE RECONSIDERED LATER DAY.     \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 35.3N  73.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 35.3N  73.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 35.0N  75.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 34.5N  75.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 34.0N  76.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 33.5N  78.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":39,"Date":"1999-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 02 1999\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM...WITH DENSER\r\nCLOUDS NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT\r\nVERY HIGH AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW A CLEARLY-DEFINED\r\nCENTER.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE YESTERDAY.\r\nTYPICALLY FOR A CYCLONE THAT REMAINS STALLED FOR THIS LENGTH OF\r\nTIME...THE OCEAN IS COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY BY THE SURFACE WIND\r\nCIRCULATION.  HOWEVER IN THIS INSTANCE THE CENTER HAS REMAINED OVER\r\nTHE GULF STREAM...A VAST OCEANIC HEAT SOURCE.   SO THERE IS CONSTANT\r\nREPLENISHMENT OF WARM WATER INTO THE AREA.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL\r\nPREDICT STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nBECAUSE OF THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL MOTION SINCE YESTERDAY.  OBJECTIVE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE COAST.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE 2-3 DAY FORECAST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOWN BY THE AVN MODEL.  HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO\r\nAN ANTICYCLONE SHOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND THAT TIME.  THIS\r\nCOULD NEGATE THE WESTWARD MOVEMENT.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOVING THE SYSTEM\r\nVERY SLOWLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD AND THEN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST LATER ON.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 35.3N  73.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 35.3N  73.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 35.2N  74.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 34.9N  75.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 34.5N  76.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 33.5N  78.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":40,"Date":"1999-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 1999\r\n \r\nAN OBSERVATION FROM A VESSEL WITH CALL SIGN ELFV3 SHOWED WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST WINDS OF 45 KNOTS ABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nSINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS IS THE HIGHEST WIND SPEED IN\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...THE ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nLOOKS REASONABLE.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO APPEAR WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE SHALLOW.  WSR-88D\r\nOBSERVATIONS SHOWED THE CENTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 65 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS...BUT\r\nTHIS IS A STATISTICAL MODEL BASED MAINLY ON DATA FROM TYPICAL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES.  DENNIS...AT THIS STAGE...IS FAIRLY ATYPICAL WITH\r\nSOME SUBTROPICAL-TYPE CHARACTERISTICS.  MOREOVER THE SHIPS OUTPUT\r\nINDICATES DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND THIS MAY\r\nNOT VERIFY.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS MOVED GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  WHETHER THIS IS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MEANDERS/WOBBLES...\r\nOR A DEFINITIVE MOTION THAT WILL PERSIST...ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IS CHARACTERIZED BY\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGES TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF\r\nDENNIS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITSELF APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THIS IS A COMPLEX\r\nSTEERING PATTERN AND THE OBJECTIVE TRACKS...ALTHOUGH FAIRLY\r\nDIVERSE...ROUGHLY SHOW A SOUTHWEST...THEN WEST...AND THEN NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK DURING THE PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES\r\nDENNIS IN A SIMILAR FASHION...BUT VERY SLOWLY.\r\n\r\nBEAR IN MIND THAT THE 48 TO 72 HOURS FORECAST POINTS\r\nARE...HISTORICALLY... SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.  \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 34.7N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.6N  74.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 34.4N  74.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 34.2N  75.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  76.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 34.5N  78.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":41,"Date":"1999-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION 2ND SENTENCE...SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD...\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE LAST 3-6 HRS. THE MOST RECENT SSM/I\r\nDATA SUPPORTS THIS...AND THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE NOW IS\r\n210/04.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT DENNIS HAS\r\nBEEN DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO. WHILE THE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN REMAINS COMPLEX...WITH MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGES TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENNIS...A GENERAL CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOUTHWEST\r\n...THEN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AT A SLOW\r\nPACE....AND REPRESENTS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. AS STATED IN \r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY...ITS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THE 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS FORECAST POINTS ARE...HISTORICALLY...SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM REMAINS RATHER WELL ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS TO -45C MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER\r\n...REMAINS LIMITED. DENNIS CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME SUBTROPICAL\r\n-TYPE CHARACTERISTICS....AS NOTED BY THE TAFB SATELLITE\r\nMETEOROLOGIST...AND APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  MOREOVER...THE SHIPS OUTPUT CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND THIS MAY\r\nNOT VERIFY.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nAFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE WAKEFIELD VA AND MOREHEAD CITY NC NWS\r\nOFFICES...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH OF THE NC/VA BORDER WILL\r\nBE DISCONTINUED.  \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 33.8N  74.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 33.6N  74.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 33.5N  75.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 33.5N  76.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 33.5N  77.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 34.5N  78.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":43,"Date":"1999-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 1999\r\n \r\nDENNIS LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nARE RELATIVELY LOW...BANDING HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER IN\r\nBOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 50 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL ARRIVE IN\r\nDENNIS AROUND 18Z TO UPDATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nDENNIS HAS MOVED 180/05 FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...RECENT\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOWER MOTION...SO 180/03\r\nWILL BE USED IN THIS PACKAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nSTORM IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WITH\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WEST OF THE STORM OVER THE EASTERN U.S..\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS\r\nAS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS TO THESE CHANGES IN THE FLOW BY TURNING DENNIS TO EITHER A\r\nNORTHWEST OR NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nNORTHWEST OPTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET...\r\nECMWF...AND ETA MODELS...WHILE THE NORTH OPTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE\r\nAVN...NHC98UK...AND THE BAM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK GOES\r\nWITH THE NORTHWEST OPTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND NORTH OF IT LATER. THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN 48 TO 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND DENNIS IS\r\nCYCLONIC...AN SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS FORMING OVER THE CENTER. LARGE\r\nSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT STRONG WESTERLIES JUST SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nAS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PRECEDING THE LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES. THIS COULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. A LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER...IS SSTS. SHIP AND\r\nBUOY DATA INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE\r\n26C OUTSIDE THE GULF STREAM..COMPARED TO 28C-29C A FEW DAYS AGO.\r\nTHIS MAY SLOW INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL 48 HOURS...WHEN DENNIS WILL BE\r\nPASSING OVER THE GULF STREAM.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 33.0N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 32.9N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 32.9N  74.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 33.2N  75.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  76.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 36.0N  78.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":44,"Date":"1999-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 1999\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DENNIS IS LESS WELL DEFINED THAN\r\nEARLIER...WITH RAGGED BANDS PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A 985 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH 59 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THUS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nOF GREATER CONCERN NOW IS THE MOTION. AFTER A WOBBLE EASTWARD THIS\r\nMORNING...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECON FIXES SUGGEST A\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION. IF THIS IS THE START OF THE EXPECTED TURN...IT IS\r\nHAPPENING 12 TO 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE HAS FORECAST.\r\nTO GUARD AGAINST THIS BEING YET ANOTHER WOBBLE...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS SET TO 300/2. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR\r\nTHE FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS THE MODELS\r\nSTILL AGREE ON WEAKENING OF THE EASTERN U.S. RIDGE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AS THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER MOVING SOUTH.\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DESPITE THE SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY IN THE FIRST 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nFROM THIS MORNING. DENNIS IS STILL EMBEDDED IN A UPPER LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE\r\nCAROLINAS SHOULD BUILD A RIDGE OVER DENNIS...WHICH WOULD BE A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN LIMITATION IS THE SSTS...WHICH ARE\r\n26C-27C OUTSIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS DENNIS PASSES OVER THE GULF STREAM...\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nWITH THE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE\r\nBEING ISSUED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 33.1N  73.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 33.2N  74.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 33.6N  75.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 34.1N  75.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  76.5W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 38.0N  78.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":45,"Date":"1999-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/02.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM WEAKENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES\r\nTOR THE GREAT LAKES IN 72 HOURS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE STORM\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE 18Z GFDL AND 12Z UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE TRACK\r\nACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE.  THE HPC FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE RIGHT.  SO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS SEEM\r\nABOUT RIGHT FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MOREHEAD CITY RADAR SHOW A SMALL AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER.  AS THE\r\nCENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STREAM...THERE COULD BE SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND TO 60 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING WHEN (AND IF) THE STORM MOVES INLAND.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 33.2N  74.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 33.4N  74.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 34.7N  76.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 36.3N  77.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 37.5N  78.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  78.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":46,"Date":"1999-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 1999\r\n \r\nRECON DATA AND RADAR FROM MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT DENNIS IS\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  THE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS\r\nBLOCKING DENNIS IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD ALLOWING THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST. WITH A NEW TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nTHE AREA...DENNIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH IN\r\nGENERAL...MOVE THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WITHIN\r\nTHE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR LESS AND THEREAFTER...OVER\r\nEASTERN VIRGINIA.  WHILE INLAND...DENNIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY\r\nRAINS.\r\n \r\nLATEST PRESSURE FROM THE RECON WAS 986 MB WITH A 25 N MI DIAMETER\r\nCENTER AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK-WINDS OF 66 KNOTS. SATELLITE LOOPS\r\nINDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT DURING THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND IS STILL DISORGANIZED.  SHIPS...GFDL AND GFDL\r\nCOUPLED MODELS STRENGTHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MOREOVER...GFDL AND\r\nGFDL COUPLE FORECAST A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 972 AND 976 MB\r\nRESPECTIVELY AT LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT\r\n60 KNOTS NEAR LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...DENNIS IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE\r\nGULF STREAM... WHILE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.  WINDS COULD\r\nINCREASE A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN INDICATED.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 33.5N  75.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  75.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 35.0N  76.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 36.0N  77.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 37.5N  77.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 40.0N  78.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":47,"Date":"1999-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 1999\r\n \r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT DENNIS IS BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH REFLECTIVITY DATA INDICATING A\r\nFORMATIVE EYEWALL AND DOPPLER WINDS SHOWING 65 KT ALOFT AND AN INNER\r\nCORE FORMING. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT DENNIS IS MOVING FASTER WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 315/8. LARGE SCALE MODELS AND NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...ALTHOUGH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  \r\n \r\nWITH THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND PASSAGE OVER THE GULF STREAM...\r\nDENNIS IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BY LANDFALL IN\r\n12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...BUT DUE TO THE\r\nLARGE SIZE AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THE\r\nWEAKENING MAY BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. DENNIS IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 34.1N  75.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 34.9N  76.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 36.4N  77.3W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 38.3N  77.8W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 40.5N  77.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 45.5N  74.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":48,"Date":"1999-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 1999\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT DENNIS IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. A GPS DROPSONDE INDICATED\r\n63 KT SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 984 MB. THE LATEST\r\nRADAR SUGGESTS THE WINDS ARE STARTING TO DIMINISH AS THE EYEWALL\r\nMOVES ONSHORE...SO DENNIS WILL BE KEPT AS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM ON\r\nTHIS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY...ANY\r\nSTRENGTHENING WOULD MAKE DENNIS A HURRICANE. THUS...HURRICANE\r\nWARNINGS ARE CONTINUED AT LEAST UNTIL THE CORE PASSES BEYOND THE\r\nPAMLICO SOUND. THE CYCLONE HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION...SO WEAKENING\r\nAFTER LANDFALL MAY BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. DENNIS IS LIKELY TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OR THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nNORTHWEST INTO NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nRECURVATURE THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. ONE\r\nINTERESTING NOTE IS THAT DESPITE A SLIGHTLY FASTER INITIAL MOTION...\r\nAVIATION MODEL-BASED GUIDANCE MOVES DENNIS SLOWER AFTER RECURVATURE\r\nTHAN 6 HOURS AGO. THE 72 HOUR POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE MUCH FASTER NOGAPS AND UKMET.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 34.9N  76.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 35.9N  77.2W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 37.7N  77.8W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 39.5N  77.8W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 42.0N  77.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 47.0N  72.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":49,"Date":"1999-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DENNIS IS INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nRATHER SLOW MOTION AND LOSES THE STORM BY 48 HOURS.  THE 18Z GFDL\r\nMODEL SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK IN 72\r\nHOURS WHILE THE 12Z NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATE THE STORM RAPIDLY TO\r\nNORTH OF 55N IN 72 HOURS.  LBAR IS ALSO SLOW.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE...FASTER THAN THE GFDL\r\nAND CLOSE TO HPC BUT SLOWER THAN THE FASTEST MODELS AND BRINGS THE\r\nREMNANT LOW TO NEAR MONTREAL IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nMOREHEAD CITY RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE\r\nWINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 45 KNOTS WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY VALUE. \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE STILL UP BUT WILL PROBABLY BE LOWERED IN\r\nA FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nA HAM RADIO REPORT GIVES 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER AT THE NEUSE\r\nRIVER NEAR NEW BERN.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A MAX OF 11 INCHES OF\r\nRAINFALL NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...BUT IT IS ONE OF\r\nTHE SLOWER MODELS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 35.2N  77.2W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 36.1N  78.2W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 37.6N  78.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 39.2N  78.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 41.0N  78.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 46.0N  75.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dennis","Adv":50,"Date":"1999-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DENNIS CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER NORTH CAROLINA.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09.  DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY SUSTAINED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS.  THUS...DENNIS IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DENNIS TO CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH WITH THE\r\nLOW IN THE VICINITY OF PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER...IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE APPROACHING TROUGH\r\nWILL ACCELERATE THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHAT\r\nFASTER THAN SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY\r\nBE MERGING WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 35.8N  78.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 36.5N  79.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 37.9N  79.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 40.0N  79.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 43.0N  77.0W    20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dennis","Adv":51,"Date":"1999-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 1999\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS NOW WELL INLAND NORTHWEST OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA.\r\nALTHOUGH SHORT TERM TRENDS INDICATE A MORE WESTERLY MOTION...THE 12\r\nHOUR MOTION OF 305/11 IS USED FOR THIS PACKAGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL U.S. MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH IS NOW AS FAR EAST AS ILLINOIS. DENNIS SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTH WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND NORTHEAST THEREAFTER AS THIS FLOW\r\nAFFECTS THE CYCLONE. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nTHE ROANOKE WSR-88D SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALOFT WELL\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE THE RALEIGH WSR-88D DAYS NO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED\r\nWINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BUT THESE WILL LIKELY OCCUR ONLY IN A FEW\r\nSQUALLS. GRADUAL WEAKENING AND TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DENNIS BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN STORM SUMMARIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON\r\nD.C. UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDSCCNS5 AND WMO HEADER ACUS42 KWBC.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 36.2N  79.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 37.0N  80.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 38.5N  80.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 40.7N  79.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 43.5N  77.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE SMALL DISTURBANCE\r\nEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FOUND A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHT LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION OF 1004 MB AND 55-KNOTS WINDS. THEREFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILY.  \r\n\r\nEMILY IS A SMALL STORM AND IS UNDER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH\r\nIS FORECAST TO RELAX.  SHIPS MODELS MAKES EMILY A 92-KNOT HURRICANE\r\nBY 60 HOURS.  THEREFORE A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nEMILY IS MEANDERING AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MUCH LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CINDY IS CUTTING THE\r\nEASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nFORECAST EMILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMOVES EMILY VERY SLOWLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN\r\nINCREASES THE FORWARD SPEED. WATCHES AND WARNING FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE LESSER ANTILLES ARE NOT RECOMMENDED AT THIS TIME BUT THEY\r\nPROBABLY BE DISCUSSED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES...PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN PORTION...SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF EMILY.  \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 11.9N  54.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 12.2N  54.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 12.7N  55.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N  57.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N  58.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N  61.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EMILY IS NOW EXPOSED WITH \r\nLIMITED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES. THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY DUE TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY WHICH\r\nIS DISRUPTING THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW AROUND EMILY.   THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/06 KTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BENDS\r\nEMILY BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT EMILY MAY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION OF CINDY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF EMILY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KTS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY AS THE CENTER IS EXPOSED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPERIENCING MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR.\r\nSHEAR...10 TO 15 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.\r\nTHIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS\r\nABILITY TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY.   \r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 12.6N  54.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.3N  54.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 14.0N  55.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N  56.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.5N  58.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 17.0N  60.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH A NEW\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE\r\nTHE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF\r\nWHAT THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCERTAIN. THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 40 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AROUND THE ECLIPSE PERIOD SUGGESTS THAT EMILY\r\nHAS STARTED A NORTHWEST MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE\r\nWILL BE 335/5...WHICH IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nIS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK AND IS IN MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAN SIX HOURS AGO...WITH THE ONLY OUTLIERS TO THE RIGHT\r\nBEING THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET. THIS AGREEMENT LOOKS A LITTLE\r\nSTRANGE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH CINDY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND IS\r\nA COMPROMISE BETWEEN A TRACK PRODUCED BY INTERACTION WITH CINDY AND\r\nA MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION UNDER THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATICAL. IF EMILY GETS CAUGHT IN THE\r\nLARGER CIRCULATION OF CINDY...IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SIMILAR TO\r\nHOW KAREN DISSIPATED WHILE INTERACTING WITH IRIS IN 1995. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING EMILY TO HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS BY 60 HOURS...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF EMILY STAYS FAR ENOUGH\r\nAWAY FROM CINDY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW AND STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. THIS IS BASED ON THE CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR AND CURRENT\r\nLACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT PRESENTLY CALL FOR LANDFALL...\r\nALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 12.9N  54.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 13.6N  54.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N  56.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.4N  57.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N  58.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nEMILY IS HOLDING ITS OWN AGAINST SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM EMILY\r\nTHIS MORNING FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED\r\nPRESSURE OF 1005 MB...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 40 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA COMFIRM THAT EMILY\r\nREMAINS A VERY COMPACT STORM.  THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EMILY DEPENDS\r\nIN GREAT MEASURE ON ITS TRACK RELATIVE TO CINDY AND DENNIS.  AS THE\r\nSMALLEST OF THE THREE...EMILY WILL BE THE LEAST ABLE TO GOVERN ITS\r\nOWN FATE.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS EMILY TO 79 KNOTS IN 72\r\nHOURS.  ALTHOUGH I BRING EMILY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE\r\nPERIOD...IF DENNIS DOES NOT MOVE NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED THEN ITS\r\nOUTFLOW COULD EVENTUALLY ADVERSLY AFFECT EMILY.\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGEST THAT EMILY IS NOW MOVING AT 305/6...MORE\r\nTO THE LEFT THAN EARLIER.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nON A CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION.  OUTLIERS ARE THE AVN...WITH\r\nAN INITIAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE LBAR...WHICH\r\nINDICATES MORE OF A THREAT TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  AS THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF CINDY MOVES AWAY FROM EMILY...I EXPECT THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED OF EMILY TO INCREASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR\r\nSOME OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 13.4N  55.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.0N  56.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 14.8N  57.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.9N  59.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 17.0N  61.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N  64.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999\r\n \r\nA RECENT AIR FORCE FIX SHOWS THAT EMILY HAS ACQUIRED A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAY BE A\r\nRESULT OF THE INFLUENCE OF NEARBY HURRICANE CINDY.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\n72 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS DECREASES THE THREAT TO\r\nTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS JUST A LITTLE AND ANY WATCHES FOR THESE ISLANDS\r\nCAN BE DELAYED AT LEAST 6 MORE HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE RECON FLIGHT REPORTED A CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1007 AND A\r\nMAXIMUM 1500 FT WIND SPEED OF 43 KNOTS...SO EMILY HAS NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nFOR 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 14.0N  55.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.6N  56.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.3N  57.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.6N  58.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.8N  60.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 21.5N  65.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n\r\nTHE STORM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION AND NO\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  EASTERLY SHEARING CONTINUES TO PREVENT\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  MOREOVER...THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS LIKELY\r\nBEING DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE HURRICANE CINDY TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE SEPARATION DISTANCE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME...SO THE HOSTILE\r\nINFLUENCE OF CINDY SHOULD LESSEN.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMODEL INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR OVER EMILY...AND SHOWS THE STORM\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BECAUSE OTHER SOURCES OF VERTICAL\r\nSHEARING... SUCH AS AN UPPER LOW NOW JUST NORTH OF 20N OR THE UPPER\r\nOUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE DENNIS...COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON\r\nEMILY.\r\n\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC POSITION AND MOTION ARE VERIFIED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM A\r\nFRENCH BUOY...I.D. 41101 NEAR 14.6N56.2W...WHICH SHOWED A 1009.2 MB\r\nPRESSURE AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 27 KNOTS.  EMILY IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE MOVING 315/06.  SOME OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION...PRESUMABLE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CINDY. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT CINDY WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY SO\r\nTHAT THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE FORECAST KEEPS THE STORM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND\r\nEMILY IS SO SMALL IN SIZE...WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS ARE NOT DEEMED\r\nNECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 14.4N  56.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.1N  56.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.4N  58.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N  59.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N  61.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N  64.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY\r\nINVESTIGATING EMILY...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SINCE LAST\r\nNIGHT.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS UP TO 1010 MB AND NO TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN FOUND...ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET\r\nCOMPLETED ITS PATTERN.  I WILL KEEP EMILY AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH\r\nTHIS ADVISORY...BUT UNLESS ITS APPEARANCE IMPROVES THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...I WILL HAVE TO DOWNGRADE EMILY TO A DEPRESSION FOR THE\r\nNEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY\r\nSHOULD LESSEN WITH TIME...IN RESPONSE TO THE OUTFLOW PATTERNS OF\r\nCINDY AND DENNIS.  OUR INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EMILY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN IN THE LONG TERM...BUT IT WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO SURVIVE\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO FIRST.\r\n\r\nEMILY IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 320/7...ABOUT THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE UKMET STILL BRINGS EMILY AROUND THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF CINDY...AN OPTION THAT SEEMS QUITE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT MOTIONS OF CINDY AND EMILY.  THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND THE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF EMILY...THERE IS STILL\r\nNO NEED FOR ANY WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 15.4N  57.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.3N  57.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N  59.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  60.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N  62.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N  67.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPROTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT \r\nEMILY IS BEING DISTORTED AND WEAKENED BY THE CIRCULATION OF CINDY. \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY NOW ELONGATED TO THE NORTH...WITH\r\nA MID LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING LEFT BEHIND 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED IN BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS...BUT THIS IS NOT\r\nINTERPRETED AS A RESTRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE\r\nPROBABLY SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE REMAINING...EMILY WILL\r\nBE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nEMILY IS NOW MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE INTIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW ESTIMATED AS 350/9.  GIVEN THIS MOTION AND THE DOWNGRADE TO\r\nDEPRESSION STATUS...THE THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DIMINISHED.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.\r\n\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL RETURNS EMILY TO HURRICANE STATUS IN\r\n72 HOURS...AND THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCAN PERSIST LONG ENOUGH FOR EMILY AND CINDY TO SEPARATE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE OUTFLOW FROM DENNIS IS NOT LIKELY TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT EITHER...SO WE WILL HOLD DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 16.6N  57.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.8N  57.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N  57.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.8N  59.3W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N  61.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N  64.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED AROUND EMILYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. ALSO...THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW FROM DENNIS IS JUST TOUCHING THE SYSTEM ON THE\r\nNORTHWEST SIDE. SATELLITE T-NUMBERS ARE STILL RANGING AROUND\r\n2.0/2.5.  THUS...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION UNTIL THERE IS\r\nMORE CONTINUITY IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/08.  GIVEN THIS MOTION AND INTENSITY...THE\r\nTHREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES IS DIMINISHED.\r\n\r\nNOT SURPRISINGLY...WITH A WEAK SYSTEM THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING\r\nA LITTLE DIVERGENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS GOING OFF TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS.  THE OTHER TRACK\r\nMODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT DIFFER IN SPEED\r\nOF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER. \r\n \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL RETURNS EMILY TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM CAN\r\nPERSIST WHILE CINDY PASSES TO THE NORTH.  BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY\r\nOF THE OUTFLOW OF DENNIS HAMPERING THE OUTFLOW OF EMILY THE SYSTEM\r\nIS HELD AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 17.2N  57.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.3N  57.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.7N  58.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  59.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 22.3N  60.9W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 25.0N  64.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MADE TWO CENTER FIXES ON EMILY\r\nTHAT WERE 50 NM APART. THE SECOND FIX HAD THE BETTER DEFINED CENTER\r\nWITH A 1009 MB PRESSURE AND 44 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS THAT EMILY IS CLOSE TO REGAINING TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY. SINCE THE FIXES WERE SO FAR APART...AND THE ASSOCIATED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A\r\nDEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SECOND AIRCRAFT FIX\r\nWOULD SUGGEST A NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...360/10...ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FIXES. THE\r\nAVIATION-BASED GUIDANCE TURNS EMILY TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS AND UKMET TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO CINDY.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK STILL CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN...BUT IT IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IF VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFIES THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION...BOTH THE\r\nPOSITION AND THE TRACK WILL NEED TO BE RE-LOCATED.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING WEST OF EMILY...WITH RIDGING\r\nOVER THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. THIS SUGGESTS A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO RE-\r\nINTENSIFY THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE RAGGED APPEARANCE...AND THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT EMILY COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DUE TO INTERACTION\r\nWITH CINDY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 18.8N  57.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 20.4N  57.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.4N  57.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 24.3N  58.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 26.0N  60.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 29.0N  63.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE IN EMILY SINCE ABOUT 9Z\r\nTHIS MORNING.  AT THAT TIME EMILY WAS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ACTIVE THIS\r\nMORNING BUT IS ALREADY ON THE DECLINE.  I WILL HOLD EMILY AS A\r\nDEPRESSION IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER FIX/INVEST AT 18Z THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...NOTING THAT THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS EMILY...AS IT\r\nHAS CONSISTENTLY FOR THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. \r\nTHE BEST GUESS IS 360/10...BASED MOSTLY ON CONTINUITY.  THE\r\nAVIATION-BASED GUIDANCE TURNS EMILY TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS AND UKMET TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO CINDY. \r\nWHILE THERE IS SOME HINT OF A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT... THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  I AM\r\nWAITING TO SEE WHERE...AND WHETHER...THE AIRCRAFT FINDS A CENTER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 19.6N  56.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 21.2N  56.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.2N  57.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 25.0N  58.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  60.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 29.5N  63.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nEMILY FOUND A VERY TINY TROPICAL STORM.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS\r\nOF 49 KT AT 1500 FT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...DOWN 3 MB FROM THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THEREFORE EMILY IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS NOW RELIABLY ESTIMATED AT 360/10.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGIVES MOSTLY A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER EMILY WILL BE\r\nBENDING TO THE LEFT OR THE RIGHT AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE PRIMARY\r\nSYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH EMILY MAY BE TOO SHALLOW TO FEEL THIS\r\nLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE\r\nGFDL...AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAMS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF EMILY...THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT\r\nHAS BEEN AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS DIMINISHING...AND WE PERMIT SOME\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A STORM THIS SMALL COULD\r\nDISSIPATE WITH LITTLE NOTICE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 20.5N  57.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.1N  57.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 23.8N  57.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 25.3N  58.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 26.9N  59.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 29.6N  62.3W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999\r\n \r\nEMILY REMAINS A VERY VERY SMALL SYSTEM.  IN FACT...THE CIRCULATION\r\nOF EMILY WOULD ALMOST FIT INSIDE THE EYE OF CINDY... LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTH.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY CINDY AND WILL\r\nPROBABLY MOVE IN TANDUM WITH HER.  THE AVN MODEL TRACKS EMILY BEHIND\r\nCINDY AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS ABSORBS EMILY\r\nINTO CINDYS CIRCULATION JUST AS IT RECURVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITH A\r\nGENERAL CONVERGENCE ON 60 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE IN 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n  \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME\r\nUNFAVORABLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO BLOW\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL RECOGNIZES THIS FACTOR BUT IT IS\r\nOVER-RIDDEN BY THE WARM SSTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR AN\r\nINVARIENT INTENSITY WITH TIME.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 21.6N  56.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 23.3N  56.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 25.7N  55.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 28.1N  55.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 30.4N  56.7W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 35.0N  59.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n\r\nEMILY REMAINS A VERY VERY SMALL SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nEXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT EMILY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE AT THE HANDS OF CINDY\r\nTO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/12...WHICH HAS CAUSED EMILY\r\nTO CLOSE FROM 510 MILES FROM CINDY AT 0145Z TO 455 MILES AT 0715Z.\r\nLOW CLOUD ELEMENTS TO THE WEST OF EMILY ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST\r\nAROUND THE VASTLY LARGER CIRCULATION OF CINDY...INDICATING THAT\r\nEMILY IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO CINDY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT EMILY WILL MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST\r\nSIDE OF CINDY UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM CINDY AND AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF EMILY SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 23.3N  56.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 25.1N  56.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 27.9N  56.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 31.5N  55.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nEMILY IS DISSIPATING AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO CINDY.  ISOLATED\r\nCONVECTION FLARES UP PERIODICALLY ON THE SOUTH END OF THE REMNANT\r\nVORTICITY CENTER...AND THIS MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nTHE VORTICITY ELONGATES ON THE EAST SIDE OF CINDY.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON EMILY.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 24.4N  56.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 26.3N  56.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 1999\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH MEXICAN SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE\r\nA SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST DRIFT...335/2. LARGE SCALE RIDGING EAST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION...ALTHOUGH RIDGING\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS MAY KEEP\r\nTHE MOTION SLOW. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...RUN USING A STATIONARY\r\nINITIAL MOTION...INDICATED A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS FOR A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH LANDFALL IN\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. ONE POSSIBILITY TO KEEP AN\r\nEYE ON IS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY TRY TO IMITATE BRET...WITH A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK AND MORE TIME OVER WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION OVER\r\nLAND. ON THIS BASIS...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING FROM TAMPICO TO MATAMOROS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 21.8N  96.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 22.5N  97.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 23.3N  97.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 24.2N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 25.0N  98.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED. \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...BUT MY BEST GUESS\r\nIS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/04.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nRATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.  THE 18Z GFDL MODEL SHOWS A SLOW CYCLONIC LOOP FOR 72 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE BAM MODELS...UKMET AND LBAR SHOW A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION.  THE HPC FORECAST IS ALSO SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO HPC BUT ABOUT A DEGREE FURTHER\r\nNORTH.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH ALLOWS THE\r\nFORECAST TO BE FOR VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING.  ALSO THE PROXIMITY TO\r\nLAND COULD LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS.  BUT THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nDOES CALL FOR STRENGTHENING BASED ON THE WARM SSTS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 22.2N  96.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 22.8N  96.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 23.6N  97.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.0N  97.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 24.5N  98.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z DISSIPATED INLAND \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n\r\nTHERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE CENTER LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE ON\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BROWNSVILLE RADAR ANIMATION SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS ALREADY ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...BUT SINCE THE\r\nCENTER IS ABOUT 200 MILES FROM THE RADAR THIS IS SPECULATIVE. \r\nIMAGES FROM THE TAMPICO MEXICO RADAR ARE INCONCLUSIVE.  LACKING\r\nDEFINITIVE INFORMATION...THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATES\r\nARE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES.  IN ANY EVENT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOVEMENT\r\nWOULD BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST LATER TODAY.  A WEAK MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A LITTLE FASTER.\r\n\r\nAFTER THE USUAL DIURNAL DECREASE...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS\r\nFAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  THE ONLY OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLANDFALL...WHICH SEEMS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME.  IF THE CENTER IS\r\nSTILL OVER WATER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 23.1N  97.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 23.8N  97.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 24.3N  98.2W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 24.8N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 25.0N  99.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n \r\nBROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DATA INDICATES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSEVEN HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINS OVER WATER. THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING 320/9 FOR\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS...AND A SLOWER NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE AND RADAR APPEARANCE SUGGESTS THE DEPRESSION WAS CLOSE\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO\r\nOBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. THE LANDFALL ENDS THE\r\nCHANCE OF STRENGTHENING...SO THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAINFALL.\r\nTHE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS A LARGE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE BAND STILL OVER\r\nTHE GULF EAST OF THE CENTER. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVER\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS. THESE COULD\r\nCONTINUED EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM OFFICIALLY DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 23.8N  98.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 24.7N  99.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 25.6N 100.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n \r\nBROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DATA INDICATES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSEVEN SLOWED AFTER LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND HAS AT BEST\r\nDRIFTED WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT MAY BE THAT A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS\r\nSLOWED THE MOTION...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUD MOTIONS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSUGGEST A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS PRESENT AT THAT LEVEL. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND DOPPLER RADAR WINDS IN THE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER ARE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM 5000-7000 FT. THUS...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nMAINTAINING ITSELF EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS INLAND. WHILE\r\nDISSIPATION OVER LAND IS THE FORECAST...THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES\r\nTHAT REQUIRE WATCHING. FIRST...THAT THE CENTER MAY REFORM OVER\r\nWATER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. SECOND...THAT SINCE THE PRIMARY CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. \r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND MAY\r\nPERSIST EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 23.7N  98.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 23.8N  98.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 24.3N  99.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n\r\nLAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BROWNSVILLE RADAR INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER HAS NOT MOVED MUCH LATELY AND IS ALSO NOT FAR FROM THE\r\nCOAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/01.  THE UKMET AND GFDL\r\nMODELS SHOW A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE THE NOGAPS IS SLOW\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD.  ALL THE OTHERS MOVE THE DEPRESSION FAIRLY FAST\r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION AT 48 HOURS IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION OVER WATER HAS FIZZLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND THIS REDUCES THE CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION.  BUT TO ERR ON THE\r\nSIDE OF CAUTION...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED FOR A WHILE\r\nLONGER.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP...UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR...OVER\r\nMEXICO...FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SO THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING\r\nCONTINUES.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 24.1N  98.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 24.4N  98.4W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 25.5N  99.7W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES USING WSR-88D IMAGES FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATE A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...ABOUT 325/04.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN INLAND FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS...THERE ARE STILL STRONG FEEDER\r\nBANDS COMING ONSHORE OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO AND NEAR THE\r\nTEXAS BORDER.  30-KNOT WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN SOME THESE BANDS.\r\n\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY...WITH THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING IN 36 HOURS OR\r\nSOONER. \r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS VARIED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE SHOULD BE\r\nENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH SO THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE FARTHER\r\nINLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nROUGHLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 24.6N  98.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 24.7N  98.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 25.2N  99.2W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 25.8N  99.7W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D INDICATE THAT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SEVEN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST...ABOUT\r\n325/5. THE CENTER HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED IN BOTH RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AS MORE OF THE CONVECTION HAS SPREAD INLAND. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING\r\nHEAVY RAINS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ISSUED\r\nBY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE\r\nCONTAINED IN STORM SUMMARIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDSCCNS2 AND\r\nWMO HEADER ACUS42 KWBC.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 25.2N  99.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 25.8N  99.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nBROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCALLED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE SET TO \r\n25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BROAD CENTER...\r\nWITH THE BEST ESTIMATES 280/12. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE\r\nCENTER JUMPED AROUND WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nCONSOLIDATES. A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nWHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH THE BAM MODELS WANT\r\nTO TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...LBAR... AND THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY CONCENTRATED...AND WITH A SYSTEM AT THIS\r\nSTAGE OF DEVELOPMENT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT MAY ALL DISAPPEAR\r\nTONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS FOR SLOW AND STEADY STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES...\r\nFOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 14.6N  46.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 14.8N  48.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.3N  50.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 15.8N  53.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 16.5N  55.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  59.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING TOWARD INCREASINGLY\r\nWARMER WATERS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE\r\nWITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED YET.  IT IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nBOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION TO ABOUT 80 AND\r\n100 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY BY 72 HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN EVEN\r\nLARGER UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM.  STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  THIS DEPRESSION\r\nHAS ALL THE INGREDIENTS...THAT WE KNOW OF...TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE EVENTUALLY.  \r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER YET...THE\r\nINITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14...BUT ONCE THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER BECOMES ESTABLISHED...THE POSITION WILL PROBABLY HAVE\r\nTO BE READJUSTED...MORE LIKELY TO THE RIGHT...IF THE CENTER REFORMS\r\nWITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\n\r\nALL AVAILABLE MODELS...WITH NO EXCEPTION...TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nGRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD NORTH...BYPASSING\r\nTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF 70W AND A STRONG APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH.  THIS IS REALISTIC BECAUSE THAT PATTERN HAS BEEN A\r\nPERSISTENT FEATURE THIS SUMMER. BOTH THE OFFICIAL NHC AND HPC\r\nFORECASTS ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nTRACK ENSEMBLE AND VERY CLOSE TO LBAR...WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING\r\nQUITE WELL IN THE DEEP TROPICS.  HOWEVER...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER\r\nON...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 15.2N  47.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.8N  49.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N  52.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N  54.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 18.0N  57.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 20.0N  61.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED SEP 08 1999\r\n\r\nON INFRARED IMAGES...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  BANDING FEATURES...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...WRAP\r\nABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  THIS GIVES A DATA T-\r\nNUMBER OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB\r\nWASHINGTON AGREE ON 35 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...SO THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEING NAMED ON THIS ADVISORY.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE\r\nIS AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE STORM AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALONG\r\nTHE PROJECTED TRACK.  THEREFORE STEADY STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nFLOYD HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...TYPICAL FOR CAPE VERDE-\r\nTYPE STORMS DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON.  FLOYD IS A GOOD\r\nCANDIDATE TO ULTIMATELY ACHIEVE MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n\r\nSINCE IT IS A BROAD SYSTEM STILL IN THE DEVELOPING STAGE...THE\r\nCENTER IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.  HOWEVER MY BEST ESTIMATE FOR THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/14...AS BEFORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THIS FEATURE COULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THAT FLOYDS COURSE WOULD VEER MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IF NOT...THEN THE MAIN FEATURE THAT\r\nWOULD INFLUENCE THE TRACK OF THE STORM WOULD BE A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS WOULD ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE\r\nGREATER ANTILLES...AND CAUSE FLOYD TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD IN ROUGHLY\r\n3 DAYS TIME.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN 3-DAY\r\nTRACK PREDICTIONS.  THE BAROTROPIC TRACK PREDICTION\r\nMODEL...LBAR...WHICH SHOULD HANDLE SYSTEMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS\r\nFAIRLY WELL...SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE REQUIRED WITH TIME.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 15.6N  49.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 16.2N  51.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  53.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N  61.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 08 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THIS MORNING ARE 45 AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON\r\nTHIS BASIS.  ON THE LARGE SCALE FLOYD LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED...WITH\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  SATELLITE LOCATION ESTIMATES\r\nUSING VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...WERE 90 NM APART...AND THE LOW AND\r\nMID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE NOT WELL LINKED AT THIS TIME. \r\nTHIS ARGUES FOR ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  ONCE THE\r\nINNER CORE REGION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED INTENSIFICATION CAN\r\nPROCEED SWIFTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW JUST EAST OF BERMUDA...AND GIVEN THE\r\nLARGE SIZE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS COULD CREATE ENOUGH OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO TURN FLOYD ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  EITHER THIS LOW...OR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL CARRIBEAN...SHOULD IMPART ENOUGH OF A\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT TO FLOYD TO ALLOW IT TO BYPASS THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED THIS\r\nMORNING...ALTHOUGH THE LBAR STILL DOES NOT SHOW ANY RIGHTWARD TURN\r\nAS INDICATED BY THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND SIMPLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 15.8N  50.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.3N  52.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 17.2N  54.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.3N  56.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N  58.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N  61.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA THIS\r\nAFTERNOON ARE NOW 55 KT...45 KT...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL NOT MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE BANDS...WHILE\r\nIMPRESSIVE...ARE WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE FLOPPY\r\nFORM OF FLOYD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 45 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN\r\nTHE STORM OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS VERY GOOD AND\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE INNER CORE BECOMES\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL NOT EASY TO LOCATE...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED AS 290/14.  A MIDDLE LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR BERMUDA...ALONG\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP FLOYD NORTH\r\nOF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE LBAR AND GFDL.  THE\r\nBAM MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE A\r\nMAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  \r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 16.6N  51.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 17.4N  53.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N  56.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N  57.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N  59.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N  61.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 08 1999\r\n\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS...BASED ON AVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  FLOYD HAS BANDING FEATURES...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A LARGE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE BUT IT LACKS AN INNER CORE.  UNTIL AN\r\nINNER CORE FORMS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THIS FEATURE FORMING AT\r\nTHIS TIME...NO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.  SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL INSIST ON BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO 93 AND 101 KNOTS\r\nRESPECTIVELY BY 72 HOURS.  THESE MODELS ARE THE ONLY OPERATIONAL\r\nTOOLS AVAILABLE FOR INTENSITY AT THE TIME OF THE FORECAST. \r\nTHEREFORE...FLOYD IS FORECAST TO REACH 95 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...AFTER\r\nA SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  IF THE INNER CORE\r\nDOES NOT FORM...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. \r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nUNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/14.   THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nFIXES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF EARLIER POSITIONS.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES SHOW A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nCENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A LOW NEAR BERMUDA.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE\r\nFLOYD TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...\r\nANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES WILL LIKELY TURN FLOYD TO THE NORTH.  THE LATEST GFDL\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTEGRATION AND\r\nTHE UK MODEL INDICATES A RECURVATURE MORE TO THE WEST THAN IN\r\nEARLIER RUN. THE AVN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TURNING THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nLBAR...WHICH IS GOOD IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND THE GFDL BUT STILL ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK MODEL ENSEMBLE. \r\n\r\nON THIS TRACK...FLOYD WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\nBUT ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT...COULD BRING A PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS. INTERESTS\r\nIN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA\r\nEARLY MORNING.  THEN...WE WILL HAVE GOOD MEASUREMENTS OF THE\r\nINTENSITY AND LOCATION.        \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 16.7N  53.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.3N  55.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 18.3N  58.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N  60.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N  61.7W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 22.0N  64.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 1999\r\n\r\nON THEIR FIRST MISSION INTO FLOYD...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nFOUND THAT THE STORM IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...BUT THAT THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.  ON TWO DROPS INTO\r\nTHE EYE...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED 1002 AND 1003 MB.  SURFACE\r\nWIND MEASUREMENTS AT THE DROPWINSONDE SPLASH POINTS SUGGEST THAT\r\nNEITHER DROP WAS QUITE AT THE SURFACE CENTER POSITION HOWEVER. \r\nALTHOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT AS STRONG A STORM AS\r\nWE THOUGHT...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 50 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ON THE LARGE SCALE...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW EVIDENT.  RECENT GOES-8 IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE\r\nSHOW THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING OVER THE\r\nCENTER... SUGGESTING THAT THE INNER CORE MAY BE GETTING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN STRENGTHENING AT A MORE RAPID\r\nRATE MAY COMMENCE SOON.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...285/13 IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  A SLIGHT\r\nNORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT\r\nTHE PROGNOSTIC REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  THE MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS PREDICTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME...THUS THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SOME\r\nSLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.   \r\nTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS AS WELL...AND\r\nKEEPS FLOYD TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nSTORM DOES NOT TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...A PORTION OF FLOYDS\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERNMOST OF THESE ISLANDS. \r\nINTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK\r\nOF FLOYD.  IF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES LIFTS OUT LATER\r\nTHIS WEEKEND...THEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY NOT IMMEDIATELY\r\nRECURVE...OR EVEN TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. \r\nTHERE IS SOME SUGGESTION OF THIS IN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND\r\nAVN MODELS.  AT THIS JUNCTURE...THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED\r\nSPECULATION.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 17.3N  54.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 17.9N  56.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 19.1N  58.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N  60.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N  62.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 23.5N  64.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 1999\r\n \r\nFLOYD IS LOOKING MUCH STRONGER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH A VERY COLD CDO.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE LAST NIGHT FOUND THAT THE WINDS WERE NOT AS\r\nHIGH AS THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 50 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  FLOYD APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN DUE WESTWARD...\r\nBUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION USED TO INITIALIZE THE MODELS WAS 280/12. \r\nALL MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES FLOYD TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...FAR\r\nENOUGH THAT NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES MUCH LONGER...THEY MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BETWEEN THE LBAR AND\r\nGFDL.  FOR THE LONGER TERM...OF INTEREST IS THE WESTWARD BEND IN THE\r\nGFDL AND LBAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE\r\nMAJOR TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST MAY NOT BE\r\nSUFFICIENT TO RECURVE FLOYD.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 17.2N  55.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N  57.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N  59.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.6N  61.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 21.0N  63.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 22.5N  65.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nFLOYD THIS AFTERNOON HAS PRESENTED US WITH MIXED SIGNALS.  THE\r\nCENTER LOCATED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES...AND REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND 68 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST SIDE...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.  GIVEN THE SEPARATION OF THE CENTER FROM THE\r\nCONVECTION...NOT MUCH MORE SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS A 103 KT HURRICANE IN\r\n72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE WESTWARD MOTION NOTED THIS MORNING HAS ENDED.  WITH THE AIRCRAFT\r\nFIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW BACK TO THE RIGHT...AT 290/13. \r\nTHE 12Z AVIATION MODEL INITIALIZES THE CYCLONE WITH SOME STRANGE-\r\nLOOKING SIDE LOBES OF VORTICITY.  THESE INDUCE A SHARP NORTHWARD...\r\nAND THEN WESTWARD TURN IN THE MODEL OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS\r\nDOES NOT SEEM REASONABLE AND I HAVE SMOOTHED OUT THESE WIGGLES TO\r\nGIVE A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THAT IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nDATA.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS STILL NORTH OF THE\r\nISLANDS...GIVEN THESE RADII AND THE TYPICAL ERROR IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW REQUIRED FOR THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN-MOST LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 18.2N  56.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 18.9N  58.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 19.8N  60.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N  62.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N  64.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 23.5N  66.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 09 1999\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE APPARENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING...FLOYD\r\nHAS NOT REACHED HURRICANE STATUS YET.  YES...ON IR IMAGERY...FLOYD\r\nIS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  IN FACT...T-NUMBERS FROM SAB...TAFB AND KGWC ARE\r\n4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT FLOYD IS A HURRICANE. \r\nHOWEVER... SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER OF FLOYD BY AN AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nDECOUPLED FROM THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED IN IR IMAGERY. \r\nNEITHER THE PRESSURE NOR THE WINDS REPORTED SO FAR BY THE\r\nPLANE...CONFIRM THAT FLOYD IS A HURRICANE. I DO NOT HAVE AN\r\nEXPLANATION WHY STRENGTHENING HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...BUT I AM\r\nSURE THERE WILL BE MANY EXPLANATIONS OUT THERE LATER.  GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT SEPARATION OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CENTERS...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND\r\nTHE GFDL MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFLOYD HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9. \r\nTHE TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM...WILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY A WELL\r\nDEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA\r\nNORTHWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC AS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\nTHIS TROUGH MAY FORCE FLOYD ON A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND EVEN NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nBEGINNING TO HINT THAT A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS FORECAST PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A MORE WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK INSTEAD OF A NORTHWARD TURN OVER OPEN\r\nWATERS.  THIS IS BASED ON SEVERAL RELIABLE MODELS LIKE\r\nLBAR...GFDL...AND THE AVN WHICH TURN FLOYD WESTWARD BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...THE UK MODEL SUGGESTS A \r\nNORTHWARD TURN FARTHER TO THE WEST IN EACH UPDATED RUN.  SINCE\r\nMODELS COULD CHANGE AGAIN TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IN THE NEXT\r\nRUN....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT CHANGED AND CONTINUES ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...MOVING FLOYD NORTH OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS AND THEN BENDS THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE WEST BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 18.3N  57.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 18.7N  59.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 20.0N  61.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 21.2N  62.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 22.5N  64.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  68.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 1999\r\n\r\nLATEST OBSERVATIONS BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB WHICH INDICATES THAT FLOYD IS PROBABLY\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE VERY\r\nSOON...ASSUMING THIS IS CORROBORATED BY WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT.  THE LAST FIX LOCATION ALSO SHOWS A BIT OF A NORTHWARD\r\nJUMP...INTO A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEPICTED ON SATELLITE IMAGES.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE AND STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  FLOYD COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION...300/10...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION BY THE NOAA JET SHOWS A\r\nSLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FLOYD AND THIS\r\nHAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE\r\nLAST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND TO THE SLIGHT RIGHTWARD CHANGE IN HEADING.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING RING OF VORTICITY SURROUNDING FLOYD\r\nIN THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATION.  IN THE MODEL SIMULATION...\r\nA NEW VORTEX SPINS UP ALONG THE RING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF STORM AND\r\nMAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE AVN PREDICTED MOVEMENT OF FLOYD...\r\nPERHAPS CARRYING IT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.  LOOKING AT THE LARGER-\r\nSCALE STEERING MECHANISMS...THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN STATES IS LIKELY TO LIFT OUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD\r\nINTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AROUND THE 72 HOUR TIME FRAME. IF THIS\r\nVERIFIES...THEN A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WOULD DEVELOP\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS WHAT IS BEING DEPICTED\r\nBY RECENT RUNS OF THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH TURN FLOYD SHARPLY TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES SHOW A LEFTWARD\r\nBEND NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...NOT AS DRAMATIC AS THE GFDL BUT\r\nSIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT\r\nPERFORMER IN RECENT YEARS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 18.9N  58.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 19.7N  60.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 20.6N  61.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 21.7N  63.6W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 22.5N  65.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 1999\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 88 KT THIS MORNING.  THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND\r\nESTIMATE OF 70 KT AND FLOYD IS NOW A HURRICANE.  WIND RADII HAVE\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS PROVIDED BY THE NOAA\r\nHURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.  THEIR ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A \r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 70 KT.\r\n\r\nFLOYD CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY CONSOLIDATING ITS INNER\r\nCORE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT QUITE\r\nCO-LOCATED WITH THE CONVECTION OR MID-LEVEL ROTATION.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT MSLP WAS 989 MB...UP A BIT FROM EARLIER.  THIS PROBABLY\r\nREFLECTS THE POOR INNER ORGANIZATION RATHER THAN A WEAKENING TREND. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...IF A BIT RESTRICTED ON THE\r\nNORTHWEST SIDE.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS FLOYD\r\nTO CLOSE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THREE DAYS.  THE AVN DEVELOPS\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF FLOYD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nTHAT SHOULD PROVIDE A LONGER TERM ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9.  A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION BY THE\r\nNOAA JET LAST NIGHT SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF FLOYD AND THIS HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  THE NCEP CLOBAL MODEL AT\r\n06Z CONTINUES TO ANALYZE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING RING OF VORTICITY\r\nSURROUNDING FLOYD...WHICH APPEARS TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nDEFLECTION IN THE MODEL FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  THIS IS\r\nDISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK FOR 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...LEAVING A CUTOFF LOW IN\r\nTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nIF THIS SCENARIO VERIFIES...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY AT 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND LBAR.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 19.3N  59.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.9N  60.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.8N  62.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 21.9N  63.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  66.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 24.0N  69.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT FLOYD IS NOW\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  AN EYE APPEARED BRIEFLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND FOR THE FIRST TIME...THE FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT\r\nPLACED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH THE WINDS\r\nHAVE NOT INCREASED AT THIS TIME...THE MSLP REPORTED BY DROPSONDE WAS\r\n977 MB...12 MB LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THE MOST RECENT PASS THROUGH\r\nTHE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED ANOTHER MB OR TWO.\r\nIN MANY STORMS PRESSURE FALLS PRECEDE WIND INCREASES...AND WE EXPECT\r\nTHE WINDS TO CATCH UP TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE SOON.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS FLOYD TO CATEGORY THREE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE IN 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONCURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN TO THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST...BUT THIS IS DUE LARGELY TO THE CHANGES IN STORM\r\nSTRUCTURE.  A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS 310/10.  ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE AVN SHOWS THE\r\nTROUGH IN THE EASTERN STATES LIFTING OUT...WITH STRONG RIDGING\r\nDEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PRECEDING PACKAGE...ROUGHLY HALFWAY BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE\r\nUKMET.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 20.5N  60.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N  61.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 22.5N  62.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 23.4N  64.7W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N  67.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N  71.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 1999\r\n\r\nLAST RECON...A FEW HOURS AGO...REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB\r\nAND DROPSONDE MEASURED WINDS OF 99 KNOTS AT 925 MB.  THE CREW ALSO\r\nREPORTED A GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION AND A CENTER REFORMING INSIDE THE\r\nORIGINAL CENTER.  BASED ON RECON AND THE AVERAGE WIND ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB SAB AND KGWC....THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 80 KNOTS\r\nAT THIS TIME.  FLOYD IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nTO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-UPPER OCEANIC TROUGH....CLEARLY OBSERVED ON\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY... DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS FEATURE\r\nIS ALSO DEPICTED BY RAOBS FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH REPORTED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...AT 300 MB BLOWING INTO THE HURRICANE.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE AVN DEVELOPS A 200 MB NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...RESULTING IN A SHEARING\r\nENVIRONMENT.   THEREFORE...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...ONCE FLOYD MOVES AWAY\r\nFROM THE UPPER-TROUGH...STRENGTHENING SHOULD START AGAIN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  UNANIMOUSLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVEN WESTWARD.\r\nTHIS DEVIATION TO THE LEFT IS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT A STRONG WARM\r\nRIDGE...WHICH IS VERY STRONG AT MID TO UPPER-LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND THE LACK OF TROUGH IN THE FORECAST ALONG EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES.  THE RELIABLE UK MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN\r\nTURNING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD AND LOCATES FLOYD NEAR THE CENTRAL\r\nBAHAMAS IN THREE DAYS AND VERY NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA IN FIVE DAYS. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE CURRENT TREND OF ALL THE LONG RANGE MODELS IS A\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST INSTEAD OF A NORTHWARD TURN OVER\r\nOPEN WATERS.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THESE TRENDS...RESIDENTS ALONG THE U.S EAST COAST SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 21.1N  60.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 21.9N  61.9W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 22.7N  63.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N  65.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 24.0N  68.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 25.0N  73.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST REPORT RELAYED FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS\r\nMORNING AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 963 MB...A 31 MB\r\nDROP DURING THE LAST 24 HRS.  THEY ALSO REPORTED A 25 NMI CIRCULAR\r\nEYE...OPEN TO THE SOUTH.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KTS\r\nWERE RECORDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THUS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FLOYD REMAINS HEALTHY WITH VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION PERSISTING AROUND THE CENTER...TOPS TO -70 TO -80C.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW IS BEING DISRUPTED SOMEWHAT OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE BY THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. THIS COUPLED WITH NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...DEPICTED IN THE AVIATION MODEL AND REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...WILL LIKELY CAUSE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY THROUGH 36 HRS.  THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME\r\nFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nBRINGS FLOYD TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HRS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09 KTS. THE FUTURE MOTION OF\r\nFLOYD WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL LIFT OUT\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWING A\r\nRIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY 48 HRS.\r\nALL OF THE DYNAMIC-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED \r\nON A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HRS WITH A MORE\r\nWESTWARD HEADING THEREAFTER. THE UKMET REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE\r\nMODEL WITH REGARDS TO THE WESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK BENDS FLOYD BACK TO A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AFTER \r\n12 HRS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST BY 48 HR.  THIS TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nBEYOND 72 HRS...THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES CONSIDERABLY\r\nAS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. AND\r\nWEAKENS THE RIDGE. THE UKMET MODEL TURNS THE HURRICANE BACK TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST JUST OFF THE FLORIDA COAST IN FOUR DAYS AND ENDS UP\r\nOFF THE GEORGIA COAST IN FIVE DAYS. NOGAPS IS SIMILAR ALTHOUGH IT\r\nMAKES THE TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.\r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 21.7N  61.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 22.4N  62.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 23.3N  64.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N  66.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 24.5N  69.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 25.0N  74.0W   105 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLIER\r\nTHIS MORNING REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 962 MB...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS THE INTENSITY MAY BE LEVELING OFF SOMEWHAT.  PEAK FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS WERE 107 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL\r\nREPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 100 KT.  SINCE DATA FROM A SINGLE\r\nDROPSONDE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SUSTAINED WIND...I AM\r\nWAITING FOR CONFIRMATION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING FLOYD A\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED SOMEWHAT IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT BY AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  WATER-\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO THE\r\nWEST OF FLOYD.  THESE FEATURES MAY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME\r\nFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nBRINGS FLOYD TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HRS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09...JUST A BIT TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE FUTURE MOTION OF FLOYD DEPENDS ON THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT LESS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED THAN EARLIER...WITH THE LBAR AND GFDL SHOWING LESS OF A\r\nWESTWARD TURN.  THE FIVE DAY GFDL TURNS THE HURRICANE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...BRINGING FLOYD TO THE CAROLINAS IN FIVE DAYS.  THE MRF\r\nLAST NIGHT...ON THE OTHER HAND...TAKES FLOYD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. \r\nTHIS ILLUSTRATES THE DIFFICULTY OF SPECIFYING LANDFALL BEYOND THREE\r\nDAYS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD\r\nDUE TO AN ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 22.2N  62.4W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  63.6W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 23.7N  65.4W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 24.5N  67.7W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  70.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  74.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE REEMERGENCE OF AN\r\nEYE...INDICATING THAT FLOYD IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH YET.  THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT AS THE\r\nSMALL UPPER LOW NOTED EARLIER HAS ROTATED SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD BE A MORE FAVORABLE CONFIGURATION AND FLOYD\r\nSHOULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION.  THE PAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A DUE WEST MOTION\r\nBUT I EXPECT THIS TO BE A TEMPORARY JOG.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nHIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...AS\r\nFORECAST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP FLOYD ON A\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT...THE 00Z MRF AND 12Z AVN BRING THE HURRICANE TO THE SOUTH\r\nFLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE UKMET HAS DONE AN ABOUT FACE AND RECURVES\r\nFLOYD WITHOUT MAKING LANDFALL AT ALL.  IT IS CLEARLY TOO SOON TO\r\nSPECIFY WHAT PORTION OF THE COAST IS AT GREATEST RISK FOR\r\nLANDFALL...BUT ALL INTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE. THE TRACK\r\nWILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE STRENGTHS OF THE DEVELOPING\r\nRIDGE AND THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nU.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND HAS LESS OF A LEFTWARD BEND AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 22.7N  63.5W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 23.3N  65.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 23.9N  67.1W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 24.4N  69.2W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N  71.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 26.5N  77.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999\r\n\r\nAS EXPECTED...FLOYD IS INTERACTING WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH...AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE INNER CORE ARE DISRUPTED. \r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF AT 967 MB AND MAX WINDS REMAIN 95\r\nKNOTS OR MAYBE LOWER AT THIS TIME.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE FLOYD IS INTERACTING\r\nWITH THE UPPER-TROUGH.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS... PRIMARILY THE\r\nAVN...ARE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WHICH ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENTHENING.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nIN FACT LOWER THE PRESSURE TO ABOUT 920 MB.\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE RECON EARLIER TODAY...INDICATE A SHORT TERM WESTERLY\r\nTRACK...BUT OVERALL..THE LONGER TREND MOTION HAS BEEN 285/10. \r\nMODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT...AND THEY ARE EVEN\r\nMORE TIGHTLY-PACKED AND...ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY...MOVE THE HURRICANE ON\r\nA GENERAL WEST NORTHWEST TRACK.  THESE MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TO\r\nA POSITION DANGEROULSY CLOSE TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE. \r\n\r\nTHERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM OTHER LONGER RANGE MODELS...UK AND\r\nNOGAPS...THAT BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE COULD TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH ON A TRACK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.   \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 22.7N  64.5W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 22.9N  66.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 23.2N  68.3W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N  70.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  73.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  78.5W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 95 KT.\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS AS\r\nFLOYD HAS INTERACTED WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IMPROVING \r\nAND FLOYD MAY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN LATER THIS MORNING.  NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND FORECAST\r\nBRINGS FLOYD TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 12 HRS.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE LAST 6 HRS OR SO...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n275/11. THE SYNOPTIC DATA GATHERED BY THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT WAS\r\nINCORPORATED INTO THE 00Z INITIALIZATION OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24 HRS.  AFTER 24 HRS...A TROUGH WILL\r\nMOVE INTO THE EASTERN U.S. AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE. ALL OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL WEST...\r\nTHEN WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HRS. THEREAFTER...THERE IS\r\nSOME SCATTER WITH NOGAPS THE RIGHT-MOST OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS WHILE\r\nTHE AVIATION BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN PALM\r\nBEACH AND DAYTONA BEACH....AS DOES BAMD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS\r\nTHE HURRICANE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COAST AND IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS\r\nISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND THE\r\nTURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL\r\nBAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE\r\nNORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nTHERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM THE LONGER RANGE MODELS...UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...THAT BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE COULD TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH ON A TRACK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\nALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 22.8N  65.9W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 22.9N  67.6W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 23.4N  70.1W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 24.1N  72.6W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 27.5N  79.5W   110 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLY THIS MORNING\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM  CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AND MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT.  THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND OF 105\r\nKT...MAKING FLOYD A CATEGORY THREE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE\r\nSCALE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT FLOYD NOW HAS GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  WARM WATER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR LIE\r\nAHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.   \r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT THIS MORNING AND APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nCOMPLETED A CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/10...ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE U.S.\r\nAPPROACHES.  THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE FLORIDA COAST IN 72 HOURS...BUT WHETHER FLOYD WILL BE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME IS VERY UNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH...NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WILL\r\nPROBABLY NEED TO BE EXTENDED TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON\r\nOR TONIGHT.  BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NO WATCHES FOR THE U.S.\r\nCOAST ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED TODAY.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM\r\nTHE LONGER RANGE MODELS...UKMET AND NOGAPS...THAT BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE HURRICANE COULD TURN TO THE  NORTH ON A TRACK\r\nDANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ALL INTERESTS IN\r\nTHE BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 23.0N  66.6W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 23.2N  68.1W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 23.7N  70.8W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  73.5W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  76.0W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 28.5N  80.5W   120 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 940 MB...WHICH REPRESENTS A\r\nDROP OF 20 MB IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nWERE 125 KT.  THE SURFACE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 110 KT AT THIS\r\nTIME...AND GIVEN THE PRESSURE FALLS...IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME\r\nBEFORE FLOYD BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nEARLIER.  THERE IS LITTLE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP FLOYD ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  BEYOND THAT...THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE U.S. APPROACHES.  THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA COAST IN 72 HOURS.  THE 12Z\r\nUKMET...AND THE GFDL RUN OFF THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS FLOYD\r\nREMAINING OFF THE COAST.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON A SURFACE ANALYSIS PROVIDED\r\nBY THE NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.  BASED ON THESE RADII AND\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION\r\nOF THE FLORIDA COAST LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.\r\n\r\nTWO NOAA AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nFLOYD...TO HELP INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 23.4N  68.2W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 23.8N  70.1W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 24.4N  72.7W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 25.2N  75.2W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 26.5N  77.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 29.0N  81.0W   120 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB.  BASED ON THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nAT 700 MB AND DROPSONDE DATA THE MAXIMUM ONE-MINUTE SURFACE WINDS\r\nARE INCREASED TO 125 KT.  THIS MAKES FLOYD A CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE.  TAFB AND SAB HAVE T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 AND SUPPORT THE 125\r\nKNOT MEASURED VALUES.\r\n\r\nFLOYD IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID\r\nTROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH\r\nIS DEPICTED WELL BY THE JUST-COMPLETED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION\r\nWITH THE NOAA JET.  THESE DATA SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE\r\nNEAR 33 N 71 W AT THIS TIME.  THEREFORE...FLOYD IS LIKELY TO BEGIN\r\nTURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER IT PASSES THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE HIGH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME\r\nSOMEWHAT DIVERGENT BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE BAM MODELS TRACK INTO\r\nCENTRAL FLORIDA...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL TURN THE\r\nSYSTEM NORTHWARD AND INDICATE LANDFALL IN THE CAROLINAS IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE BAM GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH HAVE DONE WELL FOR THIS HURRICANE THUS FAR...THE FORECAST IS\r\nNOT AS FAR TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA COAST\r\nEARLY TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 23.6N  69.3W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 24.1N  71.3W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 24.8N  73.8W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 25.9N  76.3W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 27.2N  78.3W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 30.5N  81.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n \r\nFLOYD HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING WITH THE LATEST AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 922 MB...A 39 MB DROP OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND...700 MB...WAS 146 KTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\nWHILE DROPSONDE DATA SHOW A MAXIMUM WIND OF 168 KTS. THUS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 135 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY WHICH\r\nMAKES FLOYD A STRONG CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLASSIC HURRICANE WITH AN EXTREMELY\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE AND THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN EROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF FLOYD. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY CONDITION.\r\nSST ANALYSES FROM JOHN HOPKINS UNIVERSITY INDICATE THAT FLOYD IS\r\nTRAVERSING A WARM EDDY...ABOUT 32C.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...MAINLY DUE \r\nTO EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/12. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nBEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH FLOYD BEING\r\nSTEERING BY THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC...AS DEPICTED BY THE NOAA P-3 AND G-IV SYNOPTIC\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION DATA. THE 00Z OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTIGHTER CLUSTERING AROUND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH\r\n36 HRS...LIKELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE NOAA DATA.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nGUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT WITH THE BAM MODELS TRACKING FLOYD\r\nINTO PALM BEACH FLORIDA...THE AVIATION NEAR JACKSONVILLE...WHILE \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INDICATE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY OWNING TO THE CONTINUED WESTERLY MOTION. BASED \r\nON THIS TRACK...A HURRICANE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA\r\nEAST COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO HALLANDALE. THE GOVERNMENT\r\nOF THE BAHAMAS IS ISSUING A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWEST\r\nBAHAMAS.  ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...\r\nAND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 23.7N  70.6W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 24.1N  72.6W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 24.8N  75.0W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 25.8N  77.2W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 27.5N  79.0W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 31.0N  81.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF FLOYD AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A\r\nLITTLE FASTER AND NOW SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nCOAST AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE OR IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE HURRICANE\r\nOVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  HOWEVER SINCE FLOYD IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nDANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AS PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE\r\n...A HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE DADE\r\nCOUNTY FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO REQUIRES THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE WATCH BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK\r\nGEORGIA.\r\n \r\nRECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND GPS DROPS IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT 135\r\nKNOTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND.  THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE\r\nPRESSURE IS 921 MB WHICH CORRELATES WITH 140 KNOTS...AND THE\r\nHURRICANE COULD EVEN GET A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  HOWEVER 135 KNOTS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET EVERYONES\r\nATTENTION.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 24.1N  72.1W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  74.0W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 27.3N  78.8W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 29.6N  80.3W   135 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  80.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 280/14.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...EXCEPT THE SHALLOW AND\r\nMEDIUM BAM MODELS...CONTINUE TO SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  I WOULD LIKE TO HAVE SEEN SOME\r\nEVIDENCE OF THE TURN IN THE INITIAL MOTION BY NOW.  SINCE THIS IS\r\nNOT THE CASE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO A LITTLE\r\nLEFT OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND EVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT OF THE NOGAPS. \r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA EAST\r\nCOAST AS THE FORECAST TRACK COMES WITHIN 90 MILES OF SOUTH FLORIDA\r\nIN 24 HOURS AND LESS THAN 50 MILES FROM NORTH FLORIDA IN 36 HOURS OR\r\nLESS.  \r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 923 MB AND A DROP IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST EYEWALL SHOWED 145 KNOTS ABOUT 50 MB ABOVE THE SURFACE.\r\nSO THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME...135 KNOTS UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL.  OF COURSE...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 24.2N  73.7W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 24.6N  75.9W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 26.2N  78.3W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 28.4N  79.9W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 30.9N  80.5W   135 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  79.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n \r\nLAST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE CHANGING\r\nLITTLE SO INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ABOUT STEADY.  FLOYD HAS A\r\nFAIRLY SYMMETRICAL APPEARANCE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER ALL BY THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  A GPS DROPWINDSONDE RECENTLY MEASURED 152 KNOTS\r\nABOVE THE SURFACE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR AS THE HURRICANE ENTERS A\r\nLESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nAFTER THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED NOTED EARLIER TODAY...THE MOTION\r\nIS BACK TO AROUND 12 KNOTS.  SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOWED A\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD WOBBLE A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT THE HEADING IS\r\nBACK TO 280 DEGREES NOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE\r\nSAME.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN STATES\r\nIS LIKELY TO ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nSTEERING FLOYD WESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD CREATE MORE OF A NORTHWARD\r\nSTEERING CURRENT...AND FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.   THIS WHAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY MOST\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FOR SOME TIME NOW.  HOWEVER THE\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE COULD\r\nCOME DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA COAST ON TUESDAY.  THIS IS WHY\r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE FROM DADE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO THE\r\nGEORGIA BORDER.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 24.5N  74.7W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 25.3N  76.9W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 29.0N  80.5W   125 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 31.5N  80.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 39.0N  79.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION HAS BEGUN...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/12 KTS.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A NNW-SSE ELONGATION OF THE STORM ENVELOPE INDICATING\r\nTHAT FLOYD IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING MID-\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. WILL LIKELY ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH\r\nWHICH HAS BEEN STEERING FLOYD WESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD CREATE MORE \r\nOF A NORTHWARD STEERING CURRENT...AND FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD\r\nHEADING THROUGH 48 HRS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THE NHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nIS 928 MB...A 5 MB RISE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WINDS WERE 119 KTS WHILE THE GPS DROPSONDE RECORDED A MAXIMUM\r\nOF 133 KTS.  RECON DATA SHOWS A DOUBLE WIND MAX STRUCTURE SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE MAY BE UNDERWAY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 135 KTS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE REMAINS VERY SYMMETRIC AND GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS IN\r\nALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE LIKELY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS ALONG WITH\r\nTHE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL\r\nMOVE EAST RESULTING IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER FLOYD\r\nWHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE LAST FORECAST PACKAGE AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY SCHEME...\r\nALTHOUGH NOT AS DRAMATIC.   \r\n\r\nAFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUED.  THE\r\nWARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...HURRICANE FLOYD WILL STILL\r\nCOME DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE EAST FLORIDA COAST.  ALL PREPARATIONS\r\nSHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE WARNING AREA. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 25.1N  75.9W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 26.1N  77.5W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 27.6N  79.3W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 29.7N  80.5W   125 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 32.5N  80.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 40.0N  78.5W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM ..COR\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n\r\nCOR FOR INTENSITY AT 48-H\r\n \r\nFLOYD IS NOW MOVING...AS EXPECTED...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/12.  THIS\r\nMOTION IS BASED ON RECON FIXES AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.\r\nTHE GENERAL STEERING WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FLOYD IS\r\nGRADUALLY EVOLVING AS MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING.  THERE IS NO\r\nREASON THEN TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...EXCEPT FOR A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT BASED ON LATEST\r\nGFDL AND AVN MODELS. THIS MEANS THAT FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTHWARD\r\nBECOMES EVEN MORE VULNERABLE TO EXPERIENCE THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE EYEWALL.  ONLY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT WOULD BRING THE EYE\r\nTO THE COAST. NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...AND THIS IS NORMALLY\r\nOBSERVED..ESPECIALLY WHEN THE EYE INTERACTS WITH ISLANDS.  MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS NOW ARE ABOUT 125 KNOTS AND THE PRESSURE IS 932 MB.\r\nADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS...UP OR DOWN...IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 25.7N  76.8W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 26.5N  78.5W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  80.0W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W   125 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 34.0N  80.0W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 41.0N  77.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n \r\nHAM RADIO REPORTS FROM THE ABACO ISLANDS INDICATE THE EYE OF FLOYD\r\nHAS BEEN OVER THESE ISLANDS. PRESSURE DROPPED TO 929 MB WITH VERY\r\nSTRONG WINDS JUST BEFORE THE CALM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYE.  \r\n\r\nTHE  HURRICANE IS MOVING 310/10...BASED ON RECON FIXES AND HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.   THE GENERAL STEERING WHICH IS\r\nCONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FLOYD IS GRADUALLY EVOLVING AS MODELS HAVE\r\nBEEN INDICATING.  THERE IS NO REASON THEN TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  \r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY AREA OF RISK CONTINUES TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA\r\nCOAST NORTHWARD.  THIS AREA MAY EXPERIENCE THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CORE OF THE HURRICANE...AND ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT\r\nWOULD BRING THE EYEWALL TO THE COAST.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE BEYOND 36 HOURS.  HURRICANE WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY...AND THIS IS NORMALLY\r\nOBSERVED..ESPECIALLY WHEN THE EYE INTERACTS WITH ISLANDS.  MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS NOW ARE ABOUT 120 KNOTS  ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS...UP OR\r\nDOWN...IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IF THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVES OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM WHERE THE OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT IS HIGH...STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MORE LIKELY.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 26.5N  77.4W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 27.3N  78.5W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 29.3N  80.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 33.0N  80.0W   120 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  78.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 43.0N  72.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n \r\nLATEST FIXES SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 325 DEGREES AT 11\r\nKNOTS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nSTEERING CURRENT AND EVENTUALLY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FLOW...ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.\r\nTHUS THE FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nWITH TIME.  THIS IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE\r\nTRACK PREDICTIONS.  AS USUAL...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING\r\nOF THE TURNS...AND TO THE LANDFALL POINT.  IN ANY EVENT DUE TO THE\r\nLARGE SIZE OF THIS HURRICANE AND THE PREDICTED ACCELERATION...THE\r\nHURRICANE WARNING NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137 KNOTS A FEW HOURS AGO SUPPORT THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 120 KNOTS.  FLOYD APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH LED TO A LARGE 50 N MI DIAMETER\r\nEYE.  RECENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A NEW EYEWALL MAY BE\r\nTRYING TO FORM INSIDE OF THIS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE\r\nLIKELY...BUT SINCE FLOYD IS LIKELY TO CROSS SECTIONS OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT SHOULD MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS\r\nINTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 27.7N  77.9W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 29.0N  79.0W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 31.2N  79.2W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 34.3N  78.7W   110 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 38.0N  77.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 45.0N  70.0W    45 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n\r\nTHE MOST RECENT DATA RELAYED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES\r\nTHE EYE IS ELLIPTICAL...A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 935 MB AND A\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A NEW EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH\r\nARE LIKELY...BUT SINCE FLOYD IS LIKELY TO CROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECON FIXES SHOW THAT FLOYD IS NOW MOVING NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING A BIT FASTER...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE NOW 335/13 KT.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. WILL IMPART A MORE NORTHERLY HEADING LATER TODAY.\r\nA SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING SOUTHWARD \r\nOVER THE NORTH PLAINS WILL TURN...AND ACCELERATE...THE HURRICANE\r\nON A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHEAST TRACK BY 36 HRS. \r\nTHUS THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST...THEN NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS...BUT A LITTLE\r\nFASTER...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...AND COORDINATION WITH THE LOCAL\r\nNWS OFFICES...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FROM\r\nCHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA TO CAPE HENLOPEN DELWARE.  \r\n\r\nTHE NOAA BUOY 41010 REACHED A PEAK WIND OF 70 KT...WITH GUSTS TO 85\r\nKT...AND SEAS TO 54 FT.  THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY LOW GIVEN THE HIGH\r\nSEA STATES. THE BUOY IS NOW IN THE EYE AND THE PRESSURE IS 938.8 MB.\r\nTHE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION FROM DAYTONA BEACH INDICATES 35 KT\r\nSUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 52 KT.  WIND DATA FROM THE NWS MELBOURNE\r\nWSR-WIND 88D RADAR INDICATES 64 KT WINDS AOB 1500 FT.  THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNINGS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE NOAA BUOY AT GRAYS REEF OFF THE GEORGIA IS ALREADY REPORTING\r\nSUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHILE NOAA BUOY 41004 NEAR\r\nEDISTO SOUTH CAROLINA IS REPORTING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS\r\nAND SEAS TO 23 FT. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY\r\nSHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 28.8N  78.8W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 30.5N  79.2W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 33.2N  79.1W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 36.3N  78.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 40.0N  75.0W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 47.5N  67.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":32,"Date":"1999-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/12.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE\r\nCLOSELY CLUSTERED SHOWING A CONTINUED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH A LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST\r\nOF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA A LITTLE OVER 12 HOURS.  A FEW OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST SHOWING THE LANDFALL OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE CENTER CROSSING THE SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST.  IN EITHER CASE...THE LARGE RADIUS OF HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT NORTH CAROLINA.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO RISE AND THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nDECREASED TO 110 KNOTS AT 15Z...CATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFFIR/SIMPSON\r\nSCALE.  THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO BEFORE LANDFALL.  IT IS LIKELY THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL\r\nSPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF INLAND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS\r\nALONG THE COAST.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 29.9N  79.0W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 32.2N  79.6W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  78.7W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 38.7N  76.4W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 41.7N  73.3W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  63.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":33,"Date":"1999-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/15.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE\r\nTRACK A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO DOES\r\nTHIS AND IS JUST WEST OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.  THE LANDFALL\r\nPOINT IS SHIFTED ABOUT 30 NMI EAST.  THIS REDUCES THE THREAT TO\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA A LITTLE AND INCREASES THE THREAT TO NORTH CAROLIN\r\nAND WELL AS REQUIRING THAT WARNINGS AND WATCHES BE EXTENDED\r\nNORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS\r\nNOW 949 MB...HAVING RISED 17 MB IN 24 HOURS.  THE WIND SPEED IS NOW\r\nDOWN TO 100 KNOTS...THE LOWER END OF A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON\r\nTHE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  WITH THE HURRICANE OVER THE WARM GULF\r\nSTREAM...THE WIND SPEED COULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL...ALTHOUGH CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 31.3N  79.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 33.9N  78.5W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 36.5N  77.1W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 39.4N  75.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 42.5N  71.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":34,"Date":"1999-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n\r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS BEGINNING TO\r\nINCREASE...AND MOTION IS NOW 020/16.  FLOYD IS BEGINNING TO GET\r\nCAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSTATES.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nFARTHER TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THIS TAKES THE\r\nCENTER INLAND OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 6\r\nTO 12 HOURS.   ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THIS EXACT TRACK BECAUSE...(A)\r\nFLOYD HAS A LARGE CORE OF STRONG WINDS...AND (B) ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES\r\nIN HEADING COULD MAKE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL POINT.\r\n\r\nLATEST SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM A NEW INSTRUMENT...THE STEPPED-\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SUGGEST THAT FLOYD IS STILL NEAR\r\nTHE BOTTOM END OF CAT. 3 STATUS.  SLIGHT WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY\r\nOCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nRADAR OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A MESOCYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE EYE...AND SUCH FEATURES CAN PRODUCE LOCAL\r\nENHANCEMENTS TO THE WINDS.   \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 32.9N  78.3W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 35.3N  77.0W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 38.5N  75.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 41.5N  71.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 45.0N  65.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 49.0N  49.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":35,"Date":"1999-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO PARAGRAPH ONE AND TWO...\r\n \r\nFLOYD IS NOW INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/19 KT...BASED ON RECON FIXES FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES FROM THE \r\nNWS WILMINGTON WSR-88D RADAR.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD ACCELERATE AS \r\nIT IS STEERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHEAST TRACK FOR THE \r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS BY THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TO A MORE EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST HEADING BEYOND 36 HOURS.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK \r\nIS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. \r\nTHIS TRACK TAKES THE CENTER INLAND OVER EXTREME EASTERN NORTH\r\nCAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND REEMERGES OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A POSITION JUST OFF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG\r\nISLAND NEW YORK BY 24 HRS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ONE MUST\r\nNOT FOCUS ON THIS EXACT TRACK BECAUSE FLOYD WILL RETAIN A LARGE \r\nCORE OF STRONG WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA DOPPLER-ON-WHEELS (DOW) TEAM RECORDED A\r\nMAX SUSTAINED WIND OF 81 MPH...AND A PEAK GUST OF 123 MPH...AT\r\nTOPSAIL BEACH NORTH CAROLINA NEAR THE TIME FLOYD MADE LANDFALL.  THE\r\nNEW HANOVER COUNTY EOC RECORDED A PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 98 MPH WITH\r\nA GUST TO 130 MPH ...AND A 971.9 MB PRESSURE...AT 05Z. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HRS AS FLOYD MOVES ACROSS\r\nEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THEREAFTER FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A\r\nCATEGORY 1 HURRICANE AS IT PASSES JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE NEW TRACK...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED\r\nNORTHWARD TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND\r\nNEW YORK TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 34.5N  77.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 37.3N  75.7W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 40.9N  71.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 44.0N  66.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 46.0N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 49.0N  43.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Floyd","Adv":36,"Date":"1999-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WAS INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA\r\nAT 12Z MOVING 025/21.  AT 15Z THE CENTER SHOULD BE MOVING BACK OVER\r\nWATER NEAR NORFOLK.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ACCELERATION\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...MOVING\r\nALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S COAST AND THEN THE CANADIAN MARITIME\r\nPROVINCES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONGEST SURFACE WIND REPORTED AT 12Z WAS 67 KNOTS SUSTAINED AT\r\nDIAMOND SHOALS C-MAN...WHICH REDUCES TO 57 KNOTS AT 10 METERS.  THE\r\nWAKEFIELD DOPPLER DOPPLER WINDS ARE 64 TO 75 KNOTS AT 2000 FT.  SO\r\nTHE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS AT 15Z AND FLOYD\r\nIS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH 60 KNOTS IN 12\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS BASED ON FOLLOWING THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. \r\nMOST OF THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nSHOULD BE OFFSHORE OR RIGHT ON THE COAST...BUT NOT VERY FAR\r\nINLAND...IF AT ALL.  EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DROP\r\nBELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN 12 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL NOT\r\nBE CHANGED AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTING.\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME POOR AND\r\nONLY THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 36.8N  76.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 40.0N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 43.5N  68.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 46.5N  61.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 51.0N  37.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":37,"Date":"1999-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\nCORRECTION...TROPICAL STORM FLOYD...NOT SUBTROPICAL\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECON PLANE FIXED THE CENTER ON THE COAST AT THE MD/DEL\r\nBORDER AT 1851Z.  THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION 0F 025/26 AND IS A\r\nLITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  OTHERWISE THE\r\nFORECAST CONTINIUES TO SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 70 TO 80 KNOTS AT 700 MB OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC...BUT A GPS DROP MEASURED ONLY 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT THE\r\nSURFACE.  THE LAST SURFACE EVIDENCE OF HURRICANE WINDS WAS THE DUCK\r\nPIER C-MAN AT 14Z.  THERE ARE SOME DOPPLER RADAR WINDS OF HURRICANE\r\nFORCE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...BUT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE BELIEVED\r\nTO BE MUCH LESS.  SO FLOYD IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 21Z\r\nAND THE WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST ARE ALSO DOWNGRADED\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN THREAT NOW SHIFTS TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY SERIOUS INLAND\r\nFLOODING.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 39.3N  74.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 42.5N  71.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 45.4N  65.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 48.5N  57.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 49.5N  48.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 50.0N  35.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":38,"Date":"1999-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO LOOK NON-TROPICAL...WITH AN ASYMMETRICAL\r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AND STRONG WINDS WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  FLOYD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS ACCELERATING AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/30. \r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EASTWARD BEND WITH TIME WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE MORE ZONALLY-ORIENTED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN 45N-\r\n50N.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS ALONG THE SAME\r\nTRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A LITTLE FASTER BECAUSE OF THE\r\nINCREASED INITIAL SPEED OF MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME THREAT FROM HEAVY RAINS BUT SINCE FLOYD IS NOW\r\nMOVING SO SWIFTLY...IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP MUCH ADDITIONAL RAIN\r\nIN ANY ONE PLACE.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE MAINTAINED AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND AREA\r\nAT THIS TIME.  FARTHER NORTH...SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL VERY SOON...GALE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 41.7N  72.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 45.0N  68.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 48.0N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 49.5N  52.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 50.0N  44.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 50.0N  28.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Floyd","Adv":39,"Date":"1999-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF FLOYD IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING EITHER\r\nRADAR DATA OR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT\r\nFLOYD HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 035/23 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS AN\r\nINITIAL NORTHEAST MOTION FOLLOWED BY A EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AFTER \r\n12 HRS...WITH AN EASTWARD BEND BY 36 HRS WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE MORE ZONALLY-ORIENTED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN 45N-50N.  THE\r\nCURRENT NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nBUT A TAD SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA SHOWS THAT FLOYD CONTINUES\r\nITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE STRONGEST WINDS\r\nREMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER....MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND \r\nEAST. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED. FLOYD IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAFTER COORDINATION WITH THE NWS OFFICES IN UPTON NY AND TAUNTON MA\r\n...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO\r\nMERRIMACK MASSACHUSETTS WILL BE DISCONTINUED.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON FLOYD.  FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND \r\nIN THE NORTH ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCT ISSUED BY THE\r\nMARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON D.C. UNDER AFOS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 43.5N  70.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 46.0N  67.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 48.5N  61.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 50.0N  51.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 50.0N  43.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 49.0N  31.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL\r\nWAVE SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nIS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE LARGE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS GOOD BANDING BUT NOT MUCH CONVECTION NEAR ITS POORLY DEFINED\r\nCENTER.  OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY RESTRICTED ON THE EAST SIDE DUE TO\r\nSOME MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS\r\nTHE SHEAR TO BE LOW AND BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGH\r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER...BUT\r\nTHE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/16.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SWIFT\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LBAR AND MEDIUM BAM.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 12.3N  24.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.6N  27.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.0N  30.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 13.6N  33.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  37.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  44.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED BUT THE CONVECTION IS NOT CONCENTRATED ENOUGH TO\r\nCLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. IT IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING\r\nONE.  SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO REACH 84 KNOTS BY 72\r\nHOURS AND WITH THE GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES\r\n...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.  BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS 275/16.  THERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  CONSEQUENTLY...TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE CLOSELY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AROUND\r\nTHE HIGH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 13.1N  26.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 13.4N  29.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 13.8N  32.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.3N  35.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N  39.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N  46.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS WELL\r\nORGANIZED BUT THE CONVECTION IS NOT CONCENTRATED ENOUGH TO\r\nCLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. IT IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING\r\nONE.  SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS\r\nBY 48 HOURS AND 83 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS. WITH THE GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE\r\nCURRENT STRUCTURE...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.  BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS 275/16.  THERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  CONSEQUENTLY...TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE CLOSELY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AROUND\r\nTHE HIGH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 13.1N  28.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.2N  31.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 13.5N  34.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 13.8N  37.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 14.0N  40.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N  47.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-7 SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nLIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH THE PRIMARY\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM HAS WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED OUTFLOW AND WITH NO OBVIOUS HINDRANCES...GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LIKELY\r\nWITHIN 12 HRS...AND HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HRS. THIS IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED AND IR IMAGERY ONLY ADDS TO \r\nTHE DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING IT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 275/15.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD PERSIST\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THIS IS REFLECTED \r\nIN THE LATEST OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHT\r\nCLUSTERING AROUND THIS HEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO\r\nSHOWS THIS MOTION...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 13.3N  30.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.4N  32.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 13.6N  35.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 13.8N  38.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 14.0N  42.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 14.5N  48.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED WITH BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS. THEREFORE...IT IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nGERT...THE SEVENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...AT THIS TIME.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD WITH THE STORM...AND SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nGERT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLIES...\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A TYPICAL STRONG 700 MB JET TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 17\r\nKNOTS. BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE...A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING GERT\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 14.0N  32.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N  35.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N  39.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.3N  42.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  45.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  50.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT IS STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN CONSISTS OF WELL DEFINED HOOKING BANDS AND EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE\r\nIS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE STORM...AND\r\nSHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION. GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nGERT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLIES...\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A TYPICAL STRONG 700 MB JET TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  CONSEQUENTLY THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST ABOUT 18\r\nKNOTS. BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE...A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING GERT\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE THE SMALL NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 14.6N  34.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.8N  37.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N  41.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N  44.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  47.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  53.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 1999\r\n\r\nGERT REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...HOWEVER DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON DO NOT YET JUSTIFY UPGRADING IT TO A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER 27 DEG C SSTS AND WILL BE \r\nPASSING OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER ALL BUT THE EASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS AND STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPREDICTED...AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS ALSO IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON RECENT CENTER FIXES...THE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST\r\nAT JUST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...17 KNOTS.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GERT FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...AND THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUATION OF A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE  SUGGESTS A\r\nMORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND SOME SLOWING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE LBAR MODEL WHICH...WITH ITS BAROTROPIC\r\nDYNAMICS...SHOULD HANDLE SYSTEMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS QUITE WELL. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 15.1N  36.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 15.3N  39.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N  42.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N  45.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N  48.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N  53.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GERT IS NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 65 KT...55 KT...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. A WARM SPOT IS PRESENT\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...BUT IS NOT YET GOOD ENOUGH LOOKING TO CALL AN EYE.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/17. THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION IS\r\nSTRAIGHT FORWARD...WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nSTORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT\r\nINTO TWO CAMPS...WITH THE UKMET...BAMM...BAMS...AVN...AND CLIPER\r\nBEING FASTER AND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH. THE GFDL...BAMD...AND LBAR\r\nARE SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE FIRST\r\nGROUP AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nGERT HAS STRONG CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY ALONG THE LINES OF THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND\r\nNEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR IS THAT THE AVN AND NOGAPS DEVELOP A\r\nSTRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC THAT COULD CREATE NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE PREMISES THAT GERT\r\nIS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...AND COULD WELL\r\nBE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ESCAPE THE WORST OF THE SHEAR. \r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 15.3N  38.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.6N  40.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  43.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N  47.3W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N  50.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N  55.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GERT CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nWITH HOOKING BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  THEREFORE...GERT IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS TIME...THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF\r\nTHE SEASON.\r\n\r\nSHIPS...BRINGS GERT TO 96 KNOTS WHILE THE GFDL LOWER THE PRESSURE TO\r\nNEAR 940 MB BY 72 HOURS. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL\r\nIN FORECASTING INTENSITY TRENDS SO FAR THIS YEAR.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS GERT TO 100 KNOTS IN 3 DAYS.   \r\n\r\nGERT IS MOVING ABOUT 280/17.  THERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND EVEN\r\nSTRENGTHEN. THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS..INCLUDING THE GFDL\r\nWHICH MOVES GERT SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  LONGER RANGE MODELS PUT THE\r\nHURRICANE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4\r\nDAYS.  HOWEVER...THESE FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 16.1N  40.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N  42.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.8N  45.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N  48.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N  51.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE LOOPS DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT GERT CONTINUES TO\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT AN EYE FEATURE APPARENT ON\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE.THEREFORE..THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nSHIPS...BRINGS GERT TO 104 KNOTS WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO LOWER\r\nTHE PRESSURE TO NEAR 940 MB BY 72 HOURS. THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nPERFORMING VERY WELL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY TRENDS SO FAR THIS\r\nYEAR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS GERT TO 105 KNOTS IN\r\n3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nGERT IS NOW MOVING 270/16.  THERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND EVEN\r\nSTRENGTHEN. THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS..INCLUDING THE GFDL\r\nWHICH MOVES GERT SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR A PERIOD OF 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nLONGER RANGE MODELS PUT THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  HOWEVER...THESE FORECASTS ARE\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 16.0N  41.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  44.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N  47.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.3N  50.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  53.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  58.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE LOOPS DURING THE EVENING SHOWED A BURSTING PATTERN\r\nBEGINNING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYE WITH THE CIRRUS SPREADING OUT\r\nOVER THE EYE...OBSCURING IT.  SATELLITE T-NUMBERS REMAIN THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...4.5 FROM BOTH MIAMI AND SAB.  THEREFORE..THE\r\nWINDS REMAIN AT 75 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nSHIPS...NOW SEES A SOMEWHAT MORE HOSTILE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AT\r\n48 HOURS AND BEYOND AND NOW INTENSIFIES GERT TO ONLY 99 KNOTS. \r\nSINCE THE GFDL MODEL STILL WANTS TO INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO OVER 100\r\nKNOTS THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE BURSTING PATTERN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/14. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO GUIDE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST. \r\nTHEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 16.3N  42.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N  44.9W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.1N  47.9W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N  51.1W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.9N  53.9W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N  59.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GERT HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED\r\nAN EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 90\r\nKT...WHICH WILL BE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE EYE HAS RE-FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS LESS\r\nUNCERTAIN AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/13. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH GERT CONTINUING WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SEVERAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS...MOST NOTABLY THE NOGAPS AND THE BAMM...HAVE A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. SOME OF THIS WEAKENING APPEARS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nHURRICANE FLOYD IN THE MODELS...WITH ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT\r\nIMPLIES. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WHILE THE 72 HOUR POINT IS\r\nNORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...GERT COULD STILL BE A THREAT TO THAT\r\nAREA IF THE STORM MOVES MORE TO THE WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL WANTS TO DEVELOP 20-25 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER\r\nGERT BY 36-48 HOURS...AND THUS ONLY INTENSIFIES IT TO 105 KT. A LOOK\r\nAT THE AVN AND NOGAPS 200 MB WIND FIELDS DOES NOT INDICATE THAT\r\nSTRONG OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS A\r\nLITTLE STRONG THAN BOTH SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE LONGER RANGE FORECAST OF GERT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD NEAR 60W. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nSEEM TO BE AT LEAST IN PART DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF FLOYD IN THE\r\nMODELS. THUS...THESE FORECASTS NEED TO BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE BASIS\r\nOF A COUPLE OF ERS SATELLITE SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 16.7N  43.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N  46.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N  48.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.1N  51.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N  54.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  60.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GERT HAS A WELL DEVELOPED EYE. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 90 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS LESS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/14. THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. WITH GERT CONTINUING WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE SEEMS TO STRENGTHEN\r\nBEHIND FLOYD...KEEPING GERT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\nSEVERAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE MODELS...MOST NOTABLY THE NOGAPS AND THE\r\nBAMM...HAVE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A WEAKENING RIDGE\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF FLOYD, AND MAY NOT BE REALIZED IF FLOYD MOVES ON OUT\r\nAND IS INDEED NORTH OF OR NEAR THE RIDGELINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WHILE\r\nTHE FORECAST KEEPS GERT NORTH OF THE LEEWARDS...GERT COULD STILL BE\r\nA THREAT TO THAT AREA IF THE STORM MOVES MORE TO THE WEST THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nCYCLE.  BASICALLY THIS AGREES WITH SHIFOR AND IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER\r\nTHAN SHIPS.  SHIPS INDICATES AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR THAT ALSO MAY\r\nBE RELATED TO FLOYD.\r\n\r\nJARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 17.1N  45.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N  47.4W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.1N  50.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 18.7N  53.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  55.7W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  61.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE CONSENSUS 5.5...100\r\nKT.  THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COMPLETELY WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER. \r\nLACKING ANY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS TO THE CONTRARY...GERT BECOMES THE\r\nFOURTH MAJOR...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON\r\nSCALE...HURRICANE OF THE 1999 SEASON.  OUTFLOW LOOKS OUTSTANDING IN\r\nALL QUADS AND SSTS ARE VERY WARM.  GERT HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE TO\r\nREACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS SOME SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR...SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...ASSOCIATED WITH TWO UPPER\r\nLOWS AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13.  RIDGING NORTH OF GERT LOOKS SOLID FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE MAIN LOBE OF THE RIDGE\r\nRETREATS EASTWARD AS FLOYD INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE\r\nALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW NEAR 60\r\nWEST MAY ALSO PLAY A KEY ROLE IN THE TRACK.  THE PRIMIARY GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS TAKE GERT ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY PATH AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WOULD LESSEN THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHLTY NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTWO NOAA AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE ENVIRONMENTS OF\r\nHURRICANES FLOYD AND GERT TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SOUNDING COVERAGE FOR\r\nTHE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 17.2N  46.5W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.6N  48.6W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N  51.0W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N  53.4W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  56.0W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  60.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF GERT HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 115 KT. \r\nIN FACT...THE PAST FEW ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nOBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE ARE UP TO 120 KT OR MORE.  THE INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IF GERT CAN MAINTAIN ITS\r\nCURRENT STRUCTURE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BE ASSIGNED \r\nCATEGORY FOUR STATUS.  OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK OUTSTANDING IN\r\nALL QUADS.   THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF INCREASED SHEAR AT THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY\r\nMODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 280/12.  THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  RIDGING NORTH OF\r\nGERT SHOULD KEEP GERT ON A WEST/WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 36 HOURS. \r\nBEYOND THAT...THE MAIN LOBE OF THE RIDGE RETREATS EASTWARD AS FLOYD\r\nINTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST. \r\nMOST GUIDANCE MODELS TAKE GERT ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BY 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF\r\nVIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.  IF GERT IS KIND ENOUGH TO FOLLOW\r\nEVEN THE OFFICIAL TRACK IT WILL PASS SAFELY NORTH OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES.\r\n\r\nTWO NOAA AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE ENVIRONMENTS OF\r\nHURRICANES FLOYD AND GERT TO PROVIDE ENHANCED SOUNDING COVERAGE FOR\r\nTHE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS.  THESE DATA WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nFOR THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 17.3N  47.3W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.6N  49.1W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N  51.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.6N  53.8W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N  56.0W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N  60.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n \r\nGERT CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH\r\nCLOUDS TOPS TO -80C SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE EYE IS NOT YET THAT\r\nWELL DEVELOPED...SO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...\r\nAND AFWA REMAIN AT 115 KT...102 KT...AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS LITTLE CHANGED AT 280/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT GERT IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD UNDER A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 27N\r\n60W...AND HURRICANE FLOYD AND A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE\r\nNEAR AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. LARGER SCALE MODELS INDICATES A\r\nCOMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A LARGE WEAKNESS OR BREAK\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWEST BY 72\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS IDEA...BUT IS ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS IN CASE THE WEAKNESS IS NOT\r\nAS PRONOUNCED AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...OR IN CASE THE HURRICANE\r\nITSELF BUILDS THE RIDGE FARTHER WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nGERT CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THIS COMBINED\r\nWITH THE STILL-DEVELOPING EYE AND COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS INDICATES\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nMAY STOP DEVELOPMENT OR CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING...AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS GERT TO 120 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT WEAKENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GERT\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 17.6N  48.5W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.9N  50.2W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N  52.4W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.4N  54.7W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N  57.0W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 23.5N  60.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n\r\nGERT CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. THE EYE IS MORE DEFINED AND\r\nDISTINCT ON IMAGES AND IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWITH TOPS BETWEEN -70 AND 75 DEGREES CELSIUS.  OBJECTIVE AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THIS\r\nDATA...WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.  THIS MAKES GERT THE FOURTH\r\nCATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON-SCALE OF THE SEASON.\r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING HE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...AS THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVES WESTWARD...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A WEAKENING OF THE\r\nRIDGE...ERODED BY HURRICANE FLOYD AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE. A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS THEN INDICATED AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES\r\n55W. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE HURRICANE WELL NORTH TO THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.\r\n\r\nNOTE: A DRIFTING BUOY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EYEWALL OF GERT\r\nREPORTED NORTH WINDS OF 97 KNOTS.  THIS REPORT HAS YET TO BE\r\nCONFIRMED.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 17.6N  49.5W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 17.7N  51.1W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N  53.5W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N  55.5W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.5N  57.5W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 23.5N  60.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM...COR\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n\r\n...COR TO WRONG TEXT...\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GERT HAS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN WITH AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nAND NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE.  THIS MAKES GERT A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE\r\nON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT KEEP SUCH\r\nAN INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME.  HENCE...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE\r\nMOTION AT THIS TIME.  LATER...GERT WILL BE APPROACHING THE UPPER-\r\nLOW PARTIALLY GENERATED BY THE OUTFLOW OF FLOYD.  THIS FEATURE...\r\nWHICH IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES WILL PROBABLY FORCE\r\nTHE HURRICANE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...AWAY FROM THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.  THEREAFTER...A BROAD TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL STEER THE HURRICANE ON A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK.   THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK AND LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nA NOAA GULFSTREAM PLANE WILL SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE HURRICANE\r\nTONIGHT AND AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL PENETRATE THE EYE EARLY\r\nTHURSDAY.  \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 17.6N  50.7W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.8N  52.4W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N  54.5W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.2N  56.0W   125 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  58.0W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  61.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GERT IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE THIS\r\nEVENING AS IT WAS THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT\r\n00Z WERE 127 AND 140 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT A RECENT 3 HR\r\nAVERAGE OF THE RAW OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN ALGORITHM WAS ABOUT 115 KT.  FOR CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE TRUTH WILL BE\r\nREVEALED LATER THIS MORNING WHEN A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nIN THE CYCLONE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL INDICATES SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BUT GERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nA VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/9...A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nDROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET NICELY SHOW THE MID-\r\nLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE DATA ALSO SHOW\r\nA BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALONG 60W...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nA TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS LONGITUDE.  THE 18Z AVIATION HAS A\r\nHORRIBLE INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX REGION...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS\r\nA FEW HUNDRED MILES AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AT 500 MB THAT ARE 40-50\r\nKT IN ERROR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUKMET WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 17.9N  51.2W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N  52.5W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.4N  54.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.6N  56.6W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N  58.5W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 25.0N  61.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS JUST REACHED GERT\r\nREPORTING A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB AND 119 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE REPORTED 141 KT\r\nABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS...AND A SLIGHTLY DEGRADED SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 125 KT. THE AIRCRAFT\r\nALSO REPORTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH DIAMETERS OF 18 AND 30 NM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. WHILE THE UNANIMITY IS HARD TO\r\nDISAGREE WITH...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW ABOUT 400\r\nNM NORTH OF GERT. THIS SUGGESTS THE TURN MAY BE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nMODELS INDICATE. THE FORECAST TACK GOES ALONG WITH THE TURN AND IS\r\nSHIFTED NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGERT CONTINUES TO HAVE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL WEAKENS GERT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. A LOOK AT THE 200 MB WIND FIELDS IN THE\r\nAVN AND NOGAPS MODELS DOES NOT OBVIOUSLY SHOW SUCH SHEAR. IT LOOKS\r\nLIKE THAT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES MAY BE MORE IMPORTANT IN\r\nINTENSITY CHANGES THAN SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST IN CASE SOME INCREASE\r\nIN SHEAR DOES OCCUR. HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...\r\nAND THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY VERY WELL OSCILLATE IN THE 115-130 KT\r\nRANGE DURING THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 18.1N  52.2W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N  53.5W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.4N  55.2W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  56.9W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N  58.5W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 26.5N  60.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED\r\nWITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE\r\nARE BANDING FEATURES AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...GERT IS\r\nNOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS.  THESE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WERE EXPECTED AND\r\nARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.  \r\n\r\nGERT HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WHILE\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...MODELS\r\nUNANIMOUSLY INDICATE THAT GERT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nLATER TODAY OR FRIDAY AS WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE\r\nFORECAST IS PRACTICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLE.  ON\r\nTHIS TRACK...GERT SHOULD MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND\r\nOVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  AT THIS TIME...ONLY BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE\r\nNEAR THE PATH OF GERT.   \r\n\r\nANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK GERT LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 18.3N  52.9W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N  54.0W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  55.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  57.0W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  58.5W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 27.0N  61.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE OF GERT AND FOUND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB/941 MB AND 25 N MI WIDE EYE.   A\r\nDROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL MEASURED MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 110\r\nKNOTS AND PEAK WINDS OF 138 KNOTS NEAR 900 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT GERT CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT\r\nEYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  WINDS ARE 115 KNOTS\r\nAT THIS TIME.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nGERT HAS REACHED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\n...CONSEQUENTLY IT IS TURNING MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  A TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.  TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS HAVE\r\nBEEN SUGGESTING THIS MOTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS.  THESE MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON.  ON THIS\r\nTRACK...GERT SHOULD MOVE WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND OVER\r\nTHE OPEN ATLANTIC.  AT THIS TIME...ONLY BERMUDA APPEARS TO BE\r\nNEAR THE PATH OF GERT.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 18.8N  53.9W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.4N  55.1W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  57.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N  58.5W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  60.0W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 26.5N  62.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE ABOUT 20Z.  AT THAT\r\nTIME PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 127 KT...THIS SUPPORTS A SURFACE\r\nWIND OF 115 KT.  DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS\r\nOF THE EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 85 AND 110 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 127\r\nAND 115 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE AT 06Z.  THERE\r\nIS NO SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL RUN FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT THE SPREAD OF\r\nTHE BAM MODELS SUGGESTS LOW SHEAR OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE/EYEWALL DYNAMICS ARE TO BE EXPECTED. \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nRECON DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INTIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/9.  THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE SHIFT\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE...WITH ALL MODELS DEPENDENT ON THE AVN SHOWING A\r\nLEFTWARD TURN AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...THE AVN IS\r\nHAVING SEVERE PROBLEMS INITIALIZING THE VORTEX...AND THIS APPEARS TO\r\nLEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET TRACKS DO NOT HAVE THE LEFT\r\nTURN.  THERE ARE TWO GFDL RUNS...ONE RUN OFF THE NOGAPS...GFNI...AND\r\nONE OFF THE AVN...GFDI.  ONLY THE GFDI SHOWS THE TURN.  I AM NOT\r\nREADY TO BITE ON THIS GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN A SLOWLY RECURVING TRACK\r\nTHAT IS HALFWAY BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFNI.  ON THIS TRACK BERMUDA\r\nIS A POTENTIAL TARGET IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ARE SET TO 135 MPH FOR\r\nCONSISTENCY IN THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 19.4N  54.6W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.1N  55.8W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  57.4W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 22.8N  58.7W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N  60.0W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 28.0N  62.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT REPORTED 149 KT\r\nWINDS AT 868 MB AND 123 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ON AN EYEWALL\r\nDROPSONDE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 942 MB. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 127 KT...115\r\nKT...AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE\r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE RAISED TO 120 KT. THIS INCREASE IS MOST\r\nLIKELY A MINOR FLUCTUATION AND NOT THE START OF INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nGERT IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/09. OTHER THAN THIS... THERE\r\nIS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. GERT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA. AS SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL BASED GUIDANCE BENDS THE STORM A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIGNORES THIS AND MORE FOLLOWS THE GFDN AND UKMET...WITH A BEND TO\r\nTHE RIGHT. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK DUE TO THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. \r\n\r\nGERT CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE TOPS TO -70C SURROUNDING THE\r\nCENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH NORTHWEST OF GERT MAY CAUSE SOME INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR BY\r\n72 HOURS...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES WILL BE\r\nTHE DOMINATING INFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...MAINTAINING 115-120\r\nKT WINDS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nMEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT GERT COULD COME UNCOMFORTABLY\r\nCLOSE TO BERMUDA AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...INTERESTS\r\nIN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE\r\nWEEKEND.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA AND PERIPHERAL SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 19.7N  55.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.3N  56.9W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  58.4W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 22.8N  60.0W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N  61.5W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 28.5N  63.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n \r\nGERT CONTINUES TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE.  SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB ARE OSCILLATING BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 ON THE DVORAK-\r\nSCALE.  THE OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST\r\n...PROBABLY BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE UPPER-LEVEL MID\r\nOCEANIC TROUGH.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED AND\r\nGERT SHOULD REMAIN AS A SEVERE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...IN GENERAL...A\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/09. THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL CHANGE IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SHARP NORTHWARD TURN COULD BE DELAYED\r\nAND INSTEAD IS FORECAST TO BE MORE GRADUAL.  EVEN THE UK MODEL...HAS\r\nTHE TURN A FEW DEGREES FARTHER TO THE WEST.  THE AVN WAS THE FIRST\r\nMODEL TO SUGGEST THIS TURN.  THIS CHANGE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...\r\nINCREASES THE THREAT TO BERMUDA IN THE LONG RANGE. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 20.2N  56.3W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.9N  57.3W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  58.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N  60.0W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N  61.5W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 27.0N  65.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD THE PATTERN IS SHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING...MAINLY\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OUTFLOW WHICH IS RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. THIS MAY\r\nBE TEMPORARILY WHILE THE HURRICANE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MID-\r\nOCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS WEST.  SATELLITE WIND\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE OSCILLATING BETWEEN 5.5 AND 6.0 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK-SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY  \r\nBUT...IN GENERAL...A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  NEVERTHELESS...GERT\r\nSHOULD REMAIN AS A STRONG HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/09.  LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SHARP NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED IN EARLIER RUNS COULD BE\r\nDELAYED AND INSTEAD IS FORECAST TO BE MORE GRADUAL AND FARTHER TO\r\nTHE WEST.  LBAR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE TURNING THE HURRICANE MORE TO\r\nTHE LEFT BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AND...ALTHOUGH SMALL...INCREASES THE THREAT TO BERMUDA IN\r\nTHE LONG RANGE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 20.5N  56.8W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 21.2N  58.0W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  59.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N  60.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 25.5N  62.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 27.0N  65.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nWEST...LIKELY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH \r\nSITUATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF GERT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE\r\nTHIS EVENING.  A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING...DUE TO MODEST VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR... MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN ANY EVENT...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/7.  GERT IS NEAR A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS IS PROBABLY WHY THE HURRICANE\r\nIS MOVING RATHER SLOWLY.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A MORE NORTHWARD TURN MAY BE DELAYED LONG ENOUGH FOR\r\nGERT TO EVENTUALLY POSE A THREAT TO BERMUDA.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS\r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTION. \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 21.3N  57.1W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  57.8W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 23.3N  59.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 24.6N  60.4W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 25.8N  61.8W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 28.0N  65.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GERT\r\nDURING THE NIGHT...AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT\r\nASYMMETRIC AND THE EYE SOMEWHAT RAGGED. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA ARE 115 KT...102 KT...AND 102\r\nKT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE NIGHT\r\nAND THE 12 HOUR MOTION IS NOW 330/08...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE. THE SHORT TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE EVEN MORE\r\nNORTHERLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND\r\nSURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH EX-HURRICANE FLOYD...  \r\nNORTHWEST OF GERT...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE\r\nFRONTAL TROUGH. CURRENT TRENDS AND THE VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST GERT\r\nIS MOVING SLOWLY ENOUGH THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GET EAST OF THE\r\nFRONTAL TROUGH. THUS...LOW LEVEL RIDGING MAY INCREASE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFDL...PICK UP ON THIS AND BEND THE FORECAST TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nMOTION AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF A NEW DEEP LAYER TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE FIRST 26\r\nHOURS AND A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nWEST...LIKELY DUE TO THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED UPPER TROUGH\r\nSITUATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF GERT. HOWEVER...THE AVN AND\r\nNOGAPS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND AN ANTICYCLONE BUILD OVER\r\nTHE HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...CALLING FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. HOWEVER...AN\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE WEAKENING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS FOLLOWED\r\nBY SOME INTENSIFICATION IF THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES AS\r\nTHE MODELS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GERT.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 22.2N  57.4W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 23.3N  58.0W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 24.8N  59.1W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 26.2N  60.4W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 27.5N  62.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 30.0N  64.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n\r\nGERT CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND A\r\nLARGE EYE.  HOWEVER...THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE\r\nEYE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE. WIND ESTIMATES ARE 105 KNOTS AND NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST.  GERT MAY RE-\r\nSTRENGTHEN...IF THERE IS TROUGH INTERACTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\nTHERE IS A LARGE DISCREPANCY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDL COUPLED MODELS. THE GFDL BRINGS THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE DOWN TO NEAR 930 MB AND THE COUPLED KEEPS IT ABOUT 950 MB\r\nAND RISING.  SHIPS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 325/09. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH...AND A\r\nCOLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO KEEP GERT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC BUT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO\r\nBERMUDA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WHICH TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nGERT.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 22.6N  57.9W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 23.7N  58.8W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  60.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 26.5N  61.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N  63.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 30.0N  65.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n \r\nGERT CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND A\r\nLARGE EYE.  THE RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE ONCE AGAIN\r\nINCREASED...CONSEQUENTLY DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP A LITTLE BIT. THESE\r\nUP AND DOWN FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE THE\r\nAVERAGE INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 105 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS. GERT\r\nMAY RE- STRENGTHEN...IF THERE IS TROUGH INTERACTION LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  SHIPS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 320/08. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG UPPER TROUGH...AND A\r\nCOLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO SWEEP EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO KEEP GERT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC BUT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO\r\nBERMUDA.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WHICH TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nGERT.\r\n\r\nTHE 50- AND 34- KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS C6B09 AND ELSL9 WHICH\r\nREPORTED 55 AND 50 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...WELL EAST OF THE EYE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 23.2N  58.1W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 24.2N  59.0W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 25.5N  60.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 26.5N  61.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 27.5N  62.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 30.0N  63.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n \r\nGERT REMAINS A HEALTHY HURRICANE WITH A 30 NMI DIAMETER EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 6.5 AND 6.0...RESPECTIVELY.  OBJECTIVE-\r\nBASED ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING IN THE SAME RANGE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AND SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/09 KT. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST\r\nTO PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A VERY STRONG \r\nUPPER TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED A COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE \r\nTHROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS TROUGH\r\nAPPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP GERT OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC\r\nBUT IT MAY STILL POSE A THREAT TO BERMUDA. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE TAKES THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 48 HRS WITH A BEND TOWARDS THE NORTH THEREAFTER.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH A\r\nSLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nGERT.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 24.0N  58.5W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  59.1W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 26.3N  59.9W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 27.5N  60.7W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 29.5N  61.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 31.5N  63.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":32,"Date":"1999-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n \r\nGERT REMAINS A HEALTHY HURRICANE WITH A 25 NM DIAMETER EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. WHILE THE CONVECTION HAS ERODED\r\nA LITTLE IN THE NORTH QUADRANT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS....DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 127 KT AND 115 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  OBJECTIVE-BASED ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING IN THE SAME\r\nRANGE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HRS. SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GERT IS FORECAST LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A JET STREAM APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST MAY ACT AS AN OUTFLOW MECHANISM RATHER THAN A SHEARING\r\nMECHANISM. IF THAT OCCURS...GERT MAY NOT WEAKEN AT ALL AND MIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHEN.\r\n \r\nTHE 12 HOUR MOTION IS 330/8...WHILE A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS CLOSER\r\nTO 315/6. A COMPROMISE INITIAL MOTION OF 325/7 IS USED FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR\r\n21N66W SHOULD HELP KEEP GERT ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST PART\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL RECURVATURE IN FRONT\r\nOF THE DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. SOME DISAGREEMENTS\r\nHAVE CREPT INTO THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE...WITH THE NOGAPS...\r\nGFDL...AND UKMET MODELS MOVING THE STORM MUCH FASTER THAN THE AVN\r\nAND THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A SPEED\r\nTHAT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER AND SLOWER MODELS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nGERT.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 24.3N  58.9W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 25.2N  59.8W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 26.4N  61.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 27.9N  62.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 29.5N  63.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 34.0N  62.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":33,"Date":"1999-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n\r\nGERT DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT DID EARLIER.  THE\r\nAMOUNT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE CDO HAS DECREASED AND THE EYE IS\r\nNOT THAT WELL-DEFINED.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST.  NONETHELESS...IT IS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WITH A 30\r\nN MI DIAMETER EYE AND A CLOSED WALL AS SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY DATA.  THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME SHOWS\r\nGERT MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS\r\nDOES THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...320/7...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  GERT HAS TRACKED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF YESTERDAYS MOTION. \r\nTHIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF MORE DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND STEERING AROUND A WEAK MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL CYCLONE JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO.  HOWEVER A LARGE 500 MB\r\nTROUGH IS PREDICTED TO BE OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS A\r\nCONSEQUENCE...GERT IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD GRADUALLY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 24.9N  59.5W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 25.7N  60.2W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 27.3N  61.5W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  62.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 31.0N  62.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  61.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":34,"Date":"1999-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF THE\r\nHURRICANE EAST OF BERMUDA...SEVERAL FACTORS DICTATE THE ISSUANCE OF\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THESE INCLUDE: (A) UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...(B) THE\r\nSIZE AND STRENGTH OF GERT...(C) AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND\r\n(D) AVOIDING THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATE AT NIGHT.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS ALONG THE SAME HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN SPEED...\r\n320/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. \r\nGERT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH NEAR \r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE HURRICANE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD.  HOWEVER THE TURN COULD BE DELAYED AND GERT COULD\r\nCOME DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA. \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT GERT UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE EARLIER TODAY...AND THIS MAY HAVE EXPLAINED WHY IT APPEARED\r\nWEAKER AT THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE...AND MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD...GERT MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE THAN SHOWN HERE\r\n...DUE TO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 25.9N  60.4W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 27.0N  61.5W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 28.5N  63.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 30.5N  63.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 32.5N  62.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  61.0W   100 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":35,"Date":"1999-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n \r\nGERT REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE THIS EVENING WITH A 25 NMI\r\nDIAMETER EYE AND A SYMMETRIC CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING \r\nIT. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT QUITE AS COLD OR EXTENSIVE \r\nAS THEY WERE 24 HRS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT \r\n115 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS THAT OF THE OBJECTIVE-BASED\r\nTECHNIQUE. GERT WILL LIKELY REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE \r\nNEXT TWO DAYS.  BEYOND THIS POINT...WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS \r\nTHE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERN U.S.\r\nTROUGH. IN FACT...GERT MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nBEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. GERT SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS THROUGH\r\nTHE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO \r\nA LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR\r\nBERMUDA. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT A SHORT DELAY IN THE \r\nNORTHWARD TURN WOULD BRING GERT DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...\r\nAND COULD PROMPT THE POSTING OF HURRICANE WARNINGS.  \r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 26.5N  61.1W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 27.6N  62.1W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 29.3N  62.8W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  62.8W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 34.0N  62.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 40.0N  59.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":36,"Date":"1999-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nINITIAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOWS A MORE RAGGED\r\nSTRUCTURE THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING.  THE EYE IS LESS WELL-\r\nDEFINED AND THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT AS EXTENSIVE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT AND THIS IS PERHAPS GENEROUS.\r\nSSTS ARE STILL WARM UNDER THE HURRICANE BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME\r\nDRY AIR ENTERING THE INNER CORE FROM THE WEST SIDE.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE MODEL INDICATES WEAKENING THAT RESULTS FROM\r\nINCREASING SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH...WARM\r\nTEMPERATURES ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nBEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS...WITH\r\nSOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE\r\nNORTHWARD...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE MID-TO\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. COAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  \r\n\r\nALL GUIDANCE RECURVES GERT EAST OF BERMUDA AND ON THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THESE\r\nISLANDS.  THE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUE\r\nFOR BERMUDA.  IF GERT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST THE HURRICANE WILL PASS DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...\r\nAND COULD PROMPT THE POSTING OF HURRICANE WARNINGS.  ALL INTERESTS\r\nIN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 27.3N  61.8W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.7N  62.8W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 30.5N  63.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 32.8N  62.9W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  61.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 42.0N  57.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":37,"Date":"1999-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT...BUT I\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT COMES BACK LATER TODAY.  THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS LESS ORGANIZED AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nDECREASING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KNOTS. A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE\r\nHURRICANE ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND COOLER SST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330/08.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH.  MODELS VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARD ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND MOVES\r\nTHE HURRICANE JUST EAST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE EXTEND ABOUT 90 N\r\nMI.  THEREFORE...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 27.9N  62.3W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.1N  63.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 31.1N  63.4W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 33.0N  63.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  61.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 44.5N  53.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":38,"Date":"1999-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nAFTER THREE DAYS WITHOUT RECON...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 948 MB AT 1748Z...SUPPORTING THE CURRENT MAX\r\nWIND SPEED OF 105 KNOTS.  A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 105 KNOTS WAS\r\nREPORTED 70 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE 18Z DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 5.0 OR 90 KNOTS AS\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DECREASES AND BECOMES\r\nMORE ASYMMETRIC.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 340/08.  THE GLOBAL MODELS...AVN...UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...AS WELL AS THE TRACK MODELS RUN OFF THE AVIATION RUN\r\n...REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD THEN 6 HOURS EARLIER.  THIS\r\nFORECAST PLACES THE STORM IN THE VICINITY OF 90 NM EAST OF BERMUDA\r\nAT ABOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS VARY ON THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS TOWARD ACCELERATION\r\nAHEAD OF THE TROUGH.\r\n\r\nGROSS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 28.6N  62.9W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 29.8N  63.4W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 31.8N  63.6W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 34.2N  62.6W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 37.7N  60.1W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 47.0N  50.1W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":39,"Date":"1999-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 948 MB AT 1748Z\r\nWITH MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 105 KNOTS 70 NM NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  HRD HAS SINCE PRODUCED A SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS BASED ON\r\nTHAT FLIGHT TRACK.  USING THIS ANALYSIS AND THE 00Z DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS YIELDING 90\r\nKNOTS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 95 KNOTS.  THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED ACCORDINGLY.  THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DECREASES AND\r\nBECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC...HOWEVER...THE CURRENT IMAGERY SHOWS SOME\r\nREDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 345/10...SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD AND FASTER THEN\r\nPREVIOUSLY.  THE LATEST AVN RUN AND THE TRACK MODELS DERIVED FROM IT\r\nSHOW A SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST TRACKS THEN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAS SHOWN EARLIER.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGED FROM PREVIOUSLY AS A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. \r\nTHIS FORECAST PLACES THE STORM ABOUT 100 NM EAST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT\r\n18 HOURS.  MODELS VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT THE\r\nGENERAL TREND IS TOWARD ACCELERATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 29.6N  62.8W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 31.0N  63.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 33.0N  62.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  61.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 40.0N  57.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 50.0N  46.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":40,"Date":"1999-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 954 MB AT 0720Z\r\nWITH MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 98 KNOTS 71 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM\r\nAND WILL PROBABLY DELAY THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  THEREFORE..THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST INTENSITIES\r\nREMAIN THE SAME.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 360/9...THE SYSTEM IS AT OR CLOSE TO ITS\r\nRECURVATURE POINT.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nIN DIRECTION OUT TO 48 HOURS WITH A FEW OF THEM BEING SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE REST.  A WIDER SCATTER OCCURS AT THE 72 HOUR POSITION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION AT 72 HOURS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nUKMET THE CANADIAN AND MARINE PREDICTION CENTER FORECASTS.  \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 30.5N  62.8W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 31.9N  62.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 34.1N  62.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 37.4N  60.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 42.6N  56.6W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 54.0N  50.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":41,"Date":"1999-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT GERT IS ACQUIRING A SLIGHT EASTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION AND THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASING.  GERT IS NEARING ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO\r\nBERMUDA...AND WARNINGS THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS MOSTLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE U.K. MET. OFFICE GUIDANCE.  GERT SHOULD BE AT FAIRLY HIGH\r\nLATITUDES IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...AND LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nLATEST AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL IS WEAKENING.\r\nA SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED...ALTHOUGH THIS STRONG\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE SLOW TO SPIN DOWN.  \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 31.7N  62.5W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 33.8N  62.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 36.5N  61.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 40.0N  58.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 45.0N  54.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 56.0N  46.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":42,"Date":"1999-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AT A\r\nFASTER PACE...AROUND 15 KNOTS.  A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOVEMENT...AND ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED AS GERT IS STEERED BY THE\r\nFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKES GERT\r\nNEAR NEWFOUNDLAND.  AFTER THAT TIME THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 90 KNOTS.  GERT IS SO LARGE AND STRONG\r\nTHAT IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO WIND DOWN. \r\nNONETHELESS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nAFTER COORDINATION WITH THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BERMUDA...THE\r\nHURRICANE WARNING IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  THE\r\nLATTER WARNING WILL BE EFFECTIVE ONLY UNTIL 2300 UTC AS THE FRINGES\r\nOF GERTS CIRCULATION DEPARTS THE AREA.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 33.4N  61.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 36.0N  60.7W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 40.0N  58.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 44.0N  55.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 48.0N  52.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 57.0N  44.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":43,"Date":"1999-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/16.  THE MOTION SCENARIO IS\r\nUNCHANGED WITH THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWING GERT BEING STEERED BY\r\nTHE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE GFDL FORECAST AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OTHER MODELS.  THE HPC\r\nGUIDANCE IS THE ONLY TRACK FORECAST LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL.\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE SLOW WEAKENING\r\nCONTINUES.  COLD SSTS SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERED IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  ALSO THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nLOSES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AFTER 36 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED\r\nINTO THE LARGER TROUGH.  SO THE FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING AND\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IF THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION SURVIVES THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 35.2N  60.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 37.8N  59.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 42.0N  57.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 49.2N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 57.0N  44.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":44,"Date":"1999-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/20...FASTER THAN EARLIER AS GERT\r\nIS ACCELERATING AHEAD OF THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S.  WITH THE ACCELERATION THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ON A SIMILAR TRACK...TAKING\r\nGERT OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.  THIS TRACK IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTERPOLATED NOGAPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY...WITH DATA T NUMBERS INDICATING CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING.  DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS DECREASING ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.  VERY COLD SSTS\r\nSHOULD BE ENCOUNTERED IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOWING ABOUT 55 KT AS GERT\r\nAPPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.  \r\n\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL LOSES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AFTER ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 36 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATION/ABSORPTION AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 37.2N  60.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 40.8N  58.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 45.2N  55.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 49.5N  50.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 55.5N  45.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":45,"Date":"1999-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE WINDS ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT GERT IS BARELY A HURRICANE.\r\nHOWEVER...BUOY 41505...LOCATED VERY NEAR THE EYE OF GERT...REPORTED\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967.9 MB AS GERT PASSED NEARBY.  THEREFORE\r\nWINDS ARE KEPT AT 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED AND GERT IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nAS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 020/24.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK GERT SHOULD PASS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO AVALON PENINSULA NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN\r\nHURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CANADA. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 39.5N  58.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 42.9N  57.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 48.0N  51.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 51.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 52.5N  39.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":46,"Date":"1999-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GERT MAINTAINS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO\r\nINDICATE THAT GERT IS BARELY A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING\r\nTHE WINDS AT 75 KNOTS AT THIS TIME BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND GERT IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 030/24.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK GERT SHOULD PASS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO AVALON PENINSULA NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT \r\nWITH GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN\r\nHURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CANADA.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 41.3N  57.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 44.2N  54.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 48.5N  49.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 51.5N 410.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gert","Adv":47,"Date":"1999-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 1999\r\n \r\nAT 00Z THE CANADIAN BUOY 44141 REPORTED WITH A 966.2 MB PRESSURE\r\n...WINDS 200/23 KT...AND SEAS OF 45 FT...INDICATING THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF GERT PASSED JUST TO ITS WEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/26 KT.\r\nGERT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S..  THIS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER GERT ON A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HRS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL\r\nAND UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS TRACK BRINGS GERT JUST EAST OF THE\r\nAVALON PENINSULA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. \r\n\r\nTHE LAST AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION \r\nIS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW\r\nDRY POCKET ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 70 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nAS GERT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION   \r\nEXPECTED WITHIN 24 HRS.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KNOT RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED \r\nBASED ON A REPORT FROM THE SHIP...SKOZ.\r\n \r\nSTORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE\r\nMARITIME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... PLEASE REFER TO\r\nSTATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCANADA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.\r\n\r\nTHANKS TO THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER FOR COORDINATION AND BUOY\r\nDATA.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 43.7N  55.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 47.2N  52.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 51.5N  48.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 56.0N  43.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":48,"Date":"1999-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF GERT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...BUT CANADIAN BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GERT IS\r\nBASICALLY ON THE TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...OR PERHAPS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST...AS SUGGESTED BY A LATE REPORT FROM THE CANADIAN\r\nBUOY AT 44.3N/53.6W.  INITIAL MOTION IS 030/24.  GERT WILL PASS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW LESS THAN\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AND GERT IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  BUOY\r\nOBS SUGGEST THAT WINDS MAY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF 60 KT.  WITH\r\nNO CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER...GERT WILL BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL VERY SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nSTORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS REMAIN POSTED FOR THE\r\nMARITIME AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND... PLEASE REFER TO\r\nSTATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCANADA FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.  THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL THIS EVENING RELAYING BUOY OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 45.7N  53.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 48.7N  50.9W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 53.6N  48.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":49,"Date":"1999-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW CONVECTION DISPLACED AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER...INDICATING GERT HAS LOST PRACTICALLY ALL OF ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.  REPORTS FROM THE NEW HIBERNIA BUOY... I.D.\r\n44145...LOCATED AT 46.7N 48.7W INDICATE THAT SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL\r\nNEAR 60 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS PASSING EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE FORWARD MOTION\r\nHAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 26 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE OR\r\nLESS MAINTAINS THIS MOTION TODAY. \r\n\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS...GERT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nGERT.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 47.7N  50.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 51.0N  47.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 56.0N  45.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-09-19 10:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n6 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS 42001 AND 42003 SUGGEST A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1005 MB...WITH 42003 REPORTING 30 KT WINDS\r\nAT 0900Z. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/04. A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS...IN\r\nTHEORY...SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST OR EVEN EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR FLORIDA. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS A GREAT VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS. THE UKMET TAKES THE CYCLONE ON THE\r\nTRACK SUGGESTED BY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE AVN\r\nLETS THE DEPRESSION LINGER IN THE GULF UNTIL THE ONCOMING COLD FRONT\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH CATCHES IT. THE AVN ALSO DEVELOPS A\r\nSECONDARY LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nGOES WITH THE SYNOPTICALLY SUGGESTED TRACK AND IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN A NORTHERLY UKMET AND A SOUTHERLY LBAR AND NHC98E. \r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF ONLY 25 KT. THE LARGE SCALE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS IS EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nANTICYCLONE JUST WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH RESTRICTS OUTFLOW TO\r\nTHE WEST. THESE POINTS SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. LATER\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE DEPRESSION INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR OFF...START\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...OR EVOLVE INTO A HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN 48\r\nHOURS AND KEEP THAT INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS. THIS IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN POSSIBLE WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DEEPENING DUE\r\nTO BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.\r\n\r\nWHILE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE...THEY\r\nMAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN\r\nGULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1000Z 24.9N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 25.4N  88.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 26.2N  88.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 27.5N  87.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 28.5N  85.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 31.0N  79.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n \r\nBUOY AND SHIP DATA ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY\r\nANTICIPATED...NOT UNUSUAL IN A BROAD CIRCULATION.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/06.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH A TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY\r\nOVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR\r\nFLORIDA.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS MULTIPLE SOLUTIONS. THE\r\nLBAR...BAMM...BAMD AND A98 TAKE THE CYCLONE ON THE TRACK SUGGESTED\r\nBY THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE AVN LETS THE SYSTEM\r\nLINGER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAMS MOVE THE\r\nSYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE NOGAPS HAS THE TROUGH MISSING THE SYSTEM\r\nAND THE TRAILING HIGH PUSHING THE IT SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS IMPROVING.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 KT.  A SHIP TOWING A BARGE TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND LOCATED UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nREPORTED AT 16Z THAT HE HAD WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 35 KNOTS AND A\r\nPRESSURE OF 1015MB.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM\r\nLATER THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS OF THE\r\nNORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 26.1N  87.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 27.0N  87.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N  86.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 28.5N  85.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  83.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  76.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HAS\r\nCONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE\r\nPRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  BASED ON THE EARLIER SHIP OB OF 1004 THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE WILL BE 1003 MB. THE LATEST INITIAL POSITION\r\nINDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS EARLIER\r\nCALCULATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/03.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nNOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WHICH IS.. A TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\nTHIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nLLCC THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP.  RECON SHOWS MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS OF ABOUT 15 KTS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER AND WILL\r\nPROBABLY PICK UP 25 TO 30 KTS ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE SURFACE OBS AND LOW LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT WINDS.  AT THIS TIME THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nUNTIL THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETS BETTER ORGANIZED THE STORM\r\nWATCHES MAY BE NOT BE REQUIRED UNTIL TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...RESIDENTS\r\nOF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 26.1N  87.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 26.6N  87.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 27.4N  86.8W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 28.1N  85.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 29.5N  82.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 33.0N  74.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LLCC IS STILL LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEVELOP...THE PRESSURE IS\r\nNOW 1002 MB...AND THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.  AS THE RECON PASSED THROUGH THE\r\nSOUTHEAST PART OF THE SYSTEM IT RECORDED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 56 KNOTS.  A SHORT TIME LATER AT 23Z A SHIP DIRECTLY BELOW THE\r\nRECON OBS REPORTED 180/40 AND 1004 MB.  ALSO...BUOY 42003 LOCATED\r\nABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE SHIP HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF UP TO 33\r\nKNOTS.  AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nHARVEY.\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMED THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING WHICH IS.. A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY\r\nOVER THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD\r\nTURN THE CYCLONE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVE IT ACROSS FLORIDA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS FOR A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nWITH AN ACCELERATION IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.  THIS TRACK IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL BE\r\nREQUIRED ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN\r\nAND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 26.1N  87.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 26.2N  87.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 26.7N  86.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 27.6N  85.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 28.8N  82.3W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 34.0N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nHARVEY IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCENTER ITSELF IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND. THE 08Z OBSERVATION FROM\r\nBUOY 42003 INDICATES 31 KT WINDS AND A 1002.7 MB PRESSURE...WHICH\r\nWOULD IMPLY A CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1001 OR 1000 MB. CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE\r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 40 KT.\r\n\r\nBASED ON LIMITED SATELLITE IMAGERY BEFORE AND AFTER THE ECLIPSE...\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 065/02. HOWEVER...THE BUOY\r\nOBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION MIGHT BE A LITTLE FASTER. THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...WITH HARVEY EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE\r\nDEVELOPING EASTERN U.S. DEEP LAYER TROUGH. MOST MODELS AGREE WITH\r\nTHIS...ALTHOUGH SOME HAVE A MORE EASTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA\r\nWEST COAST FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE\r\nSOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE ONE REAL MODEL OUTLIER IS THE\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH MOVES HARVEY SOUTHEAST INTO THE CARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...SOME DEVELOPMENT\r\nHAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. WHILE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nPRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...HARVEY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN\r\nA SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE\r\nSUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW THE STORM INTERACTS\r\nWITH THE TROUGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE STORM TO 50 KT IN\r\n24 HOURS...THEN CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED SHEARING\r\nAND BAROCLINIC INTERACTION. HARVEY IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE FORECAST TRACK A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN\r\nEFFECT ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. IF HARVEY IS MOVING FASTER...\r\nWARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. RESIDENTS OF THE NORTHERN\r\nAND EASTERN GULF COAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 26.3N  87.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 26.5N  86.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 26.8N  85.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 27.9N  83.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  80.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 36.5N  67.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nRECON OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW A SLIGHT PRESSURE FALL...TO 998\r\nMB...BUT NO STRONGER WINDS THAN YESTERDAY...SO FAR.  THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINS RATHER DISORGANIZED-LOOKING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW.  HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND IN\r\nFACT THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN MAKES HARVEY A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF GOOD CENTER FIXES. THE\r\nSTORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY... BUT PROBABLY\r\nNOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE ESTIMATE SHOWN IN THE 12Z INTERMEDIATE\r\nADVISORY.  MY BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS 065/06.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES.  THE\r\nCURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nTAKES THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS/WATCHES AND A HURRICANE WATCH AS SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 27.1N  85.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 27.4N  85.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 27.9N  83.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 28.7N  81.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 31.0N  77.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 37.0N  67.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE STORM IS PROBABLY ALSO ENTRAINING SOME DRIER AIR\r\nFROM THE NORTHWEST AS WELL.  THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nTHAT SOME STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR BUT OTHER GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL MODEL...SUGGESTS WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nACCORDING TO RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE MOVEMENT HAS\r\nBEEN A BIT ERRATIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nREDUCED TO 075/5.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE STEERING CURRENT IMPLIED\r\nBY THE LARGER-SCALE FLOW...ACCELERATION TOWARD THE EAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  \r\n\r\nSHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nIS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...ABOUT 150 N MI OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THIS MEANS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND\r\nWATCH NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER SOUTH.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 27.0N  85.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 27.4N  84.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 27.9N  82.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  79.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 32.5N  74.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 39.0N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT HARVEY IS MOVING\r\n080/9 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL MOTION. THE LAST RECON FIX \r\nALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGESTS THAT HARVEY MAYBE MOVING\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST.  THE APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL\r\nEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 12 HRS WITH A NORTHEAST TURN THEREAFTER  \r\nWITH INCREASING SPEED.  THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL\r\nAND THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.\r\nTHE STORM IS PROBABLY ALSO ENTRAINING SOME DRIER AIR FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST AS WELL.  DATA FROM THE DOPPLER RADAR IN TAMPA SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT MID-LEVEL CENTER IS DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE \r\nIN STRENGTH...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED BY 48 HRS...\r\nALTHOUGH THIS MAY OCCUR SOONER.  \r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SHIP REPORT AND WIND\r\nANALYSES FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST\r\nFROM SOUTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO BOCA RATON.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nREMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BOCA RATON TO FLORIDA CITY. IF THE TRACK\r\nSHIFTS FURTHER SOUTHWARD A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nFOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 27.1N  84.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 27.3N  82.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 28.4N  78.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 31.5N  74.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 36.0N  68.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 43.5N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE FIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT HARVEY HAS TURNED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 130/9.  HARVEY IS NOT WELL\r\nORGANIZED...WITH MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST...COUPLED WITH\r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE BAD WEATHER...NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. \r\nMOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HARVEY WILL TURN TO THE EAST THEN\r\nNORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY ACCELERATE IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MID\r\nLATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...AND HAS SOMEWHAT\r\nLESS ACCELERATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY INITIAL TRACK.\r\n \r\nBASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT...THE\r\nINTIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ASYMMETRIC\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 26.4N  83.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 25.7N  82.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 26.6N  79.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 29.1N  75.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 33.0N  71.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY\r\nIS POORLY DEFINED AND IS LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS VERY STRONG AND BOTH\r\nDOPPLER AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS\r\nARE ABOUT 10 INCHES.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nHARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS BUT A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HARVEY WILL CROSS THE\r\nPENINSULA PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH\r\nFLORIDA AND THE KEYS AND THEN SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nBAHAMAS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. HARVEY\r\nSHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 25.8N  82.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 25.5N  80.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 26.5N  78.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 31.0N  72.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 35.5N  66.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 45.5N  51.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE...AS GLOBAL MODELS\r\nPREDICTED...THAT HARVEY IS BECOMING RAPIDLY ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CAROLINAS.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS...PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STORM...OR WHAT\r\nLEFT OF HARVEY...TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS\r\nTIME.  MOST LIKELY...HARVEY WILL DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE POORLY DEFINED CENTER IS ELONGATED AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE EAST OR EAST NORTHEAST ABOUT 12-15 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL BECOMES ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS\r\nEVENING.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 26.3N  80.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 27.0N  78.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 28.5N  75.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nHARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO LOOSE ITS IDENTITY THIS EVENING AS IT\r\nBECOMES ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW LOCATED\r\nABOUT 135 NMI SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. THE CENTER OF\r\nHARVEY IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IF THERE IS A DISTINCT ONE LEFT\r\nTO FIND...IN EITHER SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SURFACE DATA.  THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PUTS A CENTER\r\nJUST NORTH OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 065/27 KT.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATION EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT WITH THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. HARVEY\r\nWILL BE OFFICIALLY DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL BY 12 HRS.\r\n \r\nEFFECTIVE 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS WILL\r\nDISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND\r\nAND THE ABACOS.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON HARVEY.  FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER/\r\nMARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 AND UNDER AFOS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 27.5N  77.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 29.5N  73.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 04 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING THE BROAD LOW\r\nPRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003\r\nMB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nSINCE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 15 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THE 44 KT IS DUE TO FUNNELING\r\nALONG THE COAST OR DOWNBURSTS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS BETTER\r\nORGANIZED IN BOTH WINDS AND CONVECTION THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND\r\nADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY UNCERTAIN. IF THIS IS THE SAME CENTER\r\nSEEN 24 HR AGO...THE MOTION IS 225/04. SINCE THAT IS NOT CERTAIN...\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO STATIONARY. LITTLE MOTION IS LIKELY FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS. AFTER THAT TIME...ENOUGH\r\nRIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO ALLOW A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT. THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DUE TO\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND AND MOST OF THE INFLOW BYPASSING THE DEPRESSION\r\nFOR THE NORTHERN GULF SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER DRIFTS\r\nFURTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 18.8N  93.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.8N  94.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.8N  94.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N  94.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.5N  95.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 04 1999\r\n\r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN STRUCTURE.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE PRESSURE\r\nIS 1002 MB...THE CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  IN ADDITION...A PORTION OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW IS HEADING TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INSTEAD OF TOWARD THE DEPRESSION.  WE ARE\r\nKEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT\r\nONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN THE WINDS...WILL BRING IT TO STORM STATUS.\r\nSHIPS MODEL MAKES IT A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS BUT IT SEEMS\r\nUNREALISTIC UNLESS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM LAND.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK.  THEREFORE...ONLY A\r\nSMALL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT IS INDICATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SUGGEST VERY SLOW MOTION...\r\nKEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 19.0N  93.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N  94.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N  94.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  95.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A  POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND\r\nLITTLE EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE.  ON A LARGER SCALE...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED\r\nAT THE SOUTHWEST END OF A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO TO THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE MOTION IS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY.  THE UKMET AND AVIATION MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY NORTHWARD\r\nDRIFT IN THREE DAYS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO. \r\nTHE NOGAPS SHOWS LITTLE MOTION IN THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS STATIONARY FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH.\r\n \r\nWITH NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING AT HAND...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT\r\nAT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAIN IS THE IMPORTANT WEATHER FACTOR WITH SEVERAL LARGE CONVECTIVE\r\nCLUSTERS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 05 1999\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN\r\nREMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. THE CYCLONE REMAINS A BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION AT THE SOUTHWEST END OF A TROUGH LYING NORTHEAST-\r\nSOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER TEXAS AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION FOR\r\nAT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nSHIFT EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S....WHICH MAY\r\nALLOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW\r\nFAST THE RIDGE WILL MOVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nUPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS AN\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS CURRENTLY ARE PROXIMITY\r\nTO LAND AND MUCH OF THE WOULD BE INFLOW BYPASSING THE DEPRESSION FOR\r\nTHE GULF TROUGH. BY 48 HOURS THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS ITS UPPER\r\nSUPPORT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE\r\nSLIGHTLY FARTHER FROM THE COAST. BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SOME\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPORTANT WEATHER FACTOR WITH SEVERAL LARGE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 19.5N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.7N  94.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.9N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.3N  95.2W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  95.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  95.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM CDT TUE OCT 05 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN REMAINS\r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED...WITH CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nREPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 33 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE RECON FIXES INDICATE A MOTION OF 310/3. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN EITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE. GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. WHILE IT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nTHE 72 HOUR POSITION IS SLOWER THAN THAT INDICATED BY THE AVN AND\r\nUKMET MODELS. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS.\r\nFIRST...SINCE RIDGING IS STILL DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE\r\nCURRENT NORTHWEST DRIFT MAY NOT PERSIST AND THE CYCLONE MAY STALL.\r\nSECOND...THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE DEPRESSION INTO\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST BEFORE IT CAN TURN NORTH.\r\n \r\nUPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS AN\r\nANTICYCLONE WILL LIKELY EXIST OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS REMAIN ARE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND\r\nMUCH OF THE WOULD BE INFLOW BYPASSING THE DEPRESSION FOR THE GULF\r\nTROUGH. BY 48 HOURS THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT\r\nMOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nSLIGHTLY FARTHER FROM THE COAST. BASED ON THESE EXPECTATIONS...SOME\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO BASED\r\nON THE PREMISE THE THE CYCLONE WILL NOT FALL APART PRIOR TO 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nRAIN CONTINUES TO BE THE IMPORTANT WEATHER FACTOR WITH SEVERAL LARGE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 19.7N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.9N  95.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.4N  95.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 20.9N  95.9W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  96.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 1999\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON IR IMAGES.\r\nHOWEVER...DATA FROM THE LATEST RECON EARLIER TONIGHT INDICATED THE\r\nEXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A 1004 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS...AND I AM BEING GENEROUS.  \r\nIT IS HARD TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING WITH THE PREVAILING PATTERN BUT\r\nSHIPS AND SHIFOR SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION.  THIS COULD HAPPEN ONLY IF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SURVIVES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND MOVES\r\nAWAY FROM LAND.  BY THEN...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM.  SINCE SHIPS IS THE ONLY RELIABLE GAME\r\nIN TOWN...SMALL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEYOND 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS EVEN MORE COMPLICATED BECAUSE MODELS ARE\r\nDIVERGENT.  BOTH THE AVN AND UK GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION\r\nON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE 500 MB HIGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THEREFORE..THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK. \r\nI AM NOT SURE IF THE DEPRESSION WILL LAST THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 19.8N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  95.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 20.2N  95.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  95.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  96.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  96.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DATA RELAYED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE LAST FEW\r\nFIXES BUT ESSENTIALLY HAS BEEN MEANDERING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.\r\nIN FACT THE LAST MESSAGE RECEIVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT STATED THAT THEY\r\nWERE HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTER. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS STATIONARY. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE SCATTERED WITH THE GFDN\r\nAND NOGAPS MEANDERING THE DEPRESSION.  MEANWHILE...THE AVN DRIFTS \r\nIT NORTHWARD. THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED WITH THE EXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC \r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION ALLOWING A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTH MOTION BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER\r\n...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT LAST THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nAS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST OF ITS EXISTENCE...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nVERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A CHAOTIC\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN UNCHARACTERISTIC OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS.  THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...\r\nUP 3 MB FROM LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...ITS HARD TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nCLOUD PATTERN AND THE SYSTEMS PROXIMITY TO LAND. THE 00Z NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HRS. THUS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL\r\nONLY OCCUR IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND\r\nMOVES AWAY FROM LAND.  \r\n\r\nVERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...TO -80C...PERSIST ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION\r\nOF MEXICO BETWEEN TAMPICO AND VERACRUZ.  THE PRIMARY THREAT THIS\r\nSYSTEM POSES IS ONE OF HEAVY RAINS...AND THE COLLATERAL THREAT OF\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 19.5N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 19.7N  95.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.2N  95.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  95.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  96.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  96.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 06 1999\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RELAYED AFTER THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY SUGGESTS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS\r\nRE-FORMED CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER FIXES. THE\r\nCENTER IS POORLY DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO IT IS NOT\r\nCLEAR WHETHER THE CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE LOCATION SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A RE-LOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND MORE RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON WHEN\r\nTHE NEXT AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ASSUMED TO BE 315/4...WHICH IS THE 24 HOUR\r\nMOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS AT THE WESTERN END OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nAND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONE MOVING\r\nEASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND THE NORTHWEST GULF. THE\r\nLARGE SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE ANTICYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTH AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AFTER THE RE-LOCATION IS ACCOUNTED FOR. AN\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE RIDGE MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE\r\nTHE SYSTEM INTO THE MEXICAN COAST BEFORE ANY TURN CAN OCCUR. THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF THIS INCREASES IF THE CENTER IS FARTHER WEST THAN\r\nCURRENTLY THOUGHT.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED...THE CLOUD TOPS ARE\r\nTO -80C AND THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE. IF THE\r\nCYCLONE STAYS OFFSHORE...AND IF IT CAN BETTER SEPARATE ITSELF FROM\r\nTHE GULF SURFACE TROUGH...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO INTENSIFY. SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HR ON THE PREMISE THAT BOTH OF\r\nTHOSE IFS WILL OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER...OVER EASTERN\r\nMEXICO BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO. HEAVY RAINS SHOULD PERSIST OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO UNTIL THE DEPRESSION EITHER MOVES AWAY OR\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 20.6N  95.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N  96.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  96.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 22.2N  96.9W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 23.0N  97.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N  97.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM CDT WED OCT 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM COULD NOT\r\nFIND A CENTER. INSTEAD THERE APPEAR TO BE SMALL VORTICITY MAXIMA\r\nALONG A BROAD TROUGH WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE DECLARED DISSIPATED.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE LACK OF A CENTER...WINDS HAVE INCREASED CONSIDERABLY\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE FORMER CIRCULATION. SHIP PGEC HAS\r\nREPORTED 40-48 KT WINDS SINCE 12Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT FOUND FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 KT NEAR 20N 96W. THUS...GALE WARNINGS ARE\r\nBEING ISSUED IN OFFSHORE FORECASTS FROM THE SLIDELL NWSFO AND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION...AND HEAVY FLOOD-\r\nPRODUCING RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY\r\nMONITORED IN CASE REGENERATION OCCURS. THIS COULD HAPPEN IF THE\r\nREMAINS OF THE CYCLONE STAY OVER WATER AND ISOLATE THEMSELVES FROM\r\nTHE GULF SURFACE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 21.0N  95.0W...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SSM/I PASS FROM THE DMSP SATELLITE SUPPLIED BY THE NAVAL\r\nRESEARCH LABORATORY IN MONTEREY CALIFORNIA SHOWS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES...MULTICHANNEL GOES-8 IMAGERY ALSO SUPPORTS THIS.\r\nAS ALWAYS...ONE MUST BE CAUTIOUS WHEN USING IR-BASED IMAGERY TO RE-\r\nPOSITION SYSTEM CENTERS AT NIGHT.  THE 06Z POSITION HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nNORTHWARD HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE MAKING\r\nFURTHER ADJUSTMENTS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CENTER NEEDS\r\nTO BE ADJUSTED FURTHER NORTH ON THE NEXT PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS ON\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH AND WEST...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS TROUGH MAY INDUCE\r\nA MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDEVELOP A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.   THIS MAY TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BACK TO A MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST HEADING BY 72 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD MINIMIZE THE\r\nTHREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK \r\nIS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH BAMM AND A98E...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY FASTER. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF DEPRESSION TWELVE IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH IS RATHER LINEAR IN NATURE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FROM CIMSS/UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nSTATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS...SHOWS\r\nA GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nIN 12 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 15.2N  45.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.8N  46.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.5N  47.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.2N  48.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N  50.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N  52.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 06 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35\r\nKT AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY. WITH THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nLOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-50W.\r\nLARGE SCALE AND NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY\r\nINDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...BUT IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nCONVECTION...THE SYSTEM HAS A SHEARED APPEARANCE. IT MAY BE THAT\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE ANTICYCLONE. THE AVN AND\r\nNOGAPS INDICATE THAT A RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE\r\nTROPICAL ATLANTIC AND DECREASE THE SHEAR. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS STRONGER AND\r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN EITHER MODEL...WHICH MEANS IT MAY NOT DISSIPATE\r\nAS QUICKLY AS THEY PREDICT. DUE TO THE GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nTROUGH PERSISTS THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 15.2N  46.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.4N  47.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.9N  48.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 16.6N  49.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N  51.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 19.0N  53.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 06 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY...WITH THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT AND 30 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS SLOWED OR PERHAPS EVEN STALLED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A SHORT TERM CHANGE. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE IS 285/4...WHICH IS THE 24 HOUR MOTION.\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER MOTION AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS. IT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE EAST AND SLOWER ON THE BASIS OF THE CURRENT TRENDS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHEARED APPEARANCE...AND WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE AVN AND NOGAPS ARE TOO FAR NORTH AND NOT\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. \r\nBOTH MODELS PREDICT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY...BUT THIS\r\nWILL LIKELY BE A SLOWER PROCESS THAN THE MODELS FORECAST. THUS...THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOWER STRENGTHENING THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 15.5N  46.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 15.7N  46.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 16.1N  47.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.7N  48.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  50.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.0N  52.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05.  THE NOGAPS...UKMET...GFDN...\r\nAND AVIATION MODELS ALL SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  THIS HAS THE EFFECT OF KEEPING THE MOTION RATHER\r\nSLOW AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT\r\nSTILL FASTER THAN THE ABOVE MENTIONED MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AS THERE DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nTO BE MUCH GOING ON IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION.\r\nTHERE IS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL EAST OF WHERE THE\r\nPOORLY DEFINED CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED AND A HINT OF\r\nBANDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  SSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE\r\nFORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS SO SOME SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT NOT TO HURRICANE FORCE AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 15.7N  46.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.1N  47.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N  48.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 17.2N  48.9W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 17.7N  49.8W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.8N  51.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 07 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS.  THE CENTER REMAINS\r\nEXPOSED AND WELL-REMOVED...ABOUT 100 NMI WEST...FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DUE TO MODEST...BUT PERSISTENT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 35 KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nHELD AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEST IDENTIFIED IN GOES-8 MULTICHANNEL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05.\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE OBJECTIVE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS \r\nRELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK SHOWS A SLOW...GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HRS\r\n...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF\r\nTHE UKMET OFFICE FORECAST TRACK. THIS TRACK REPRESENTS A SLIGHT\r\nLEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION.  IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN ITS CURRENT STATE BEYOND\r\n24 HRS...THE TRACK MAY BE MORE WESTERLY...PER LOW-LEVEL STEERING.\r\n\r\nWITH RESPECT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION IS LESS\r\nORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HRS AGO.  THE SHEAR INDUCED BY THE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF 20N FROM 40W \r\nAND 50W...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH\r\nWEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS\r\nTHE MODELS SUGGEST.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN A\r\nDEPRESSION THROUGH 24 HRS WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER...\r\nBUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS...AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS\r\nHOSTILE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 15.9N  47.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.2N  47.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.5N  48.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.9N  49.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 17.3N  50.4W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  52.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 07 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE CENTER REMAINS\r\nEXPOSED WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO PERSISTENT SHEAR.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND\r\n30 KT RESPECTIVELY. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST\r\nTHAN INDICATED DURING THE NIGHT...SO THERE IS A SLIGHT RELOCATION OF\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/3. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR\r\n26N45W...MOVING SLOWLY EAST. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE LOW HAS CREATED A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...LEAVING IT IN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE\r\nUKMET MODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE UPPER\r\nLOW...INDICATES IT WILL BE 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE LOW WEAKENS AND\r\nMOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST FOR ITS INFLUENCE ON THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nDIMINISH. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES THE\r\nSLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 36 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nCIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE DEPRESSION.\r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING THE ANTICYCLONE AND\r\nCAUSING SHEAR. THE UKMET...AVN...AND NOGAPS ALL INDICATE THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING INDICATED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THE MODELS\r\nTRACK RECORD ON FORECASTING THE SHEAR AFFECTING THIS SYSTEM... IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE IT PERSIST LONGER THAN THAT. IT IS\r\nALSO POSSIBLE THE DEPRESSION COULD WEAKEN BEFORE THE SHEAR CAN\r\nDECREASE. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS 400-500 NM WIDE AND THEREFORE\r\nIS UNLIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITH THE CURRENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 15.9N  46.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 16.1N  47.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 16.4N  47.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.7N  48.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N  49.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N  52.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 07 1999\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON...LEAVING AN EXPOSED LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH WIDELY SCATTERED\r\nCONVECTION WELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...SO THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/4. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER A\r\nWEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SHEAR THE\r\nDEPRESSION. THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL\r\nWEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD AFTER 12-24 HOURS. THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY\r\nTHE IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGESTS THE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING SOUTH\r\nTOWARD THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS INTENSIFICATION\r\nEVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT\r\nDECREASE AS QUICKLY AS EARLIER FORECAST. EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nA LARGE CIRCULATION...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY STAY HOSTILE LONG ENOUGH\r\nFOR IT TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE THE SHEAR RELAXES.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 16.1N  47.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 16.3N  47.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.6N  48.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.9N  48.6W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N  49.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.5N  52.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 07 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND WELL\r\nREMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS RELAXING...AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS STRONGER THAN EARLIER\r\nTODAY.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS FROM THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN TO A STRONG UPPER-LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\nIN ADDITION... THE OUTFLOW FROM THE FOLLOWING TROPICAL WAVE\r\nAPPRACHING FROM THE EAST WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE DEPRESSION BY\r\nINCREASING THE SHEAR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ALL AVAILABLE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS GOING TO DECREASE...AS THE UPPER-\r\nLOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARD WHILE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS THE DEPRESSION\r\nTO HURRICANE STATUS. I NORMALLY FOLLOW SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nWHICH HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD THIS SEASON. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...I DO\r\nNOT SEE HOW SUCH A SHEARED DEPRESSION CAN RECOVER FROM THE\r\nPREVAILING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT I WOULD NOT\r\nBE SURPRISED...IF THIS DEPRESSION DISSIPATES IN 24 HOUR OR SO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/04. MODELS AND THE OFFCIAL FORECAST ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK\r\nSTEERING FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL IN THE AREA.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 16.6N  47.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.9N  48.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  49.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N  50.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N  51.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N  53.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-10-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE\r\nREMAINS SPARSE...POORLY ORGANIZED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE MULTICHANNEL GOES-8 IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 300/3.  THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH 72 HRS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HRS.  THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH BAMS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FEEL THE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY/\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE SHEAR HAS BEEN PERSISTENT CONTRARY TO THE FORECASTS\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS. IN FACT...THE TROUGH HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD\r\nOVER THE LAST 24 HRS.  BOTH THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITHIN \r\n24 HRS OR SO THEREBY LESSENING THE SHEAR. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THIS MAY NOT OCCUR AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST. FURTHERMORE\r\n...THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE NEAR\r\n33W/34W WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. SO... UNTIL\r\nTHERE ARE SIGNS OF THE SHEAR ABATING...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MAINTAINED\r\nAS A DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HRS.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE LARGE NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT\r\nMAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT RECOVER AND COULD\r\nWEAKEN OR DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS\r\nWITHIN 24 HRS OR SO.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 16.6N  47.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 16.8N  48.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 17.2N  48.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N  49.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  50.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N  53.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 08 1999\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD\r\nSWIRL...BUT WITH A FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING...IT HAS\r\nBOUGHT ITSELF AT LEAST ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OF EXISTENCE.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND WEST. \r\nALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO LESSEN...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS STILL DIGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS A HEALTHY OUTFLOW THAT MAY KEEP SHEAR VALUES HIGH. \r\nTHESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS STATIONARY.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION MOVING\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nASSUMING SHALLOW LAYER STEERING...AND RESUMES A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nMOTION AFTER 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 16.4N  47.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.4N  47.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.7N  48.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  49.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N  50.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N  53.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PUFFS THIS MORNING DID NOT PERSIST AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO DISSOLVE INTO MULTIPLE\r\nSWIRLS.  WITH A HOSTILE UPPER ENVIRONMENT STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY.\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE DEPRESSION UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.  THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY OR DRIFT ERRATICALLY WHILE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSOLVES.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 16.4N  47.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 16.4N  47.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-10-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 13 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RAOB OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND CAYMAN INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME\r\nMUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM IRENE. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE LOCATION\r\nAND THE INTENSITY OF IRENE LATER TODAY.  THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND\r\nSQUALLS COVERS A LARGE AREA OF WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nEXCELLENT. CONVENTIONAL TOOLS INDICATE THAT IRENE COULD REACH\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ALSO\r\nSUGGEST STRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE IRENE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE\r\nBUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 345/7. IRENE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL SLOW\r\nNORTH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK TROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND IRENE COULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UK\r\nMODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED\r\nACCORDINGLY FOR CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nALL INTEREST IN FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH FLROIDA AND THE KEYS\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM\r\nIRENE.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 18.5N  83.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N  84.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N  84.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  84.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  83.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-10-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 13 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nIRENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...PLENTY OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES. T-NUMBER FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  HOWEVER...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nINDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED WITH TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS...45 TO 50 KNOTS...LIMITED TO AN AREA WITHIN A BAND TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 MB.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THERE\r\nIS A WARM UPPER OCEANIC MIXED LAYER (FANCY FOR A WARM OCEAN) AHEAD\r\nOF THE STORM.  THEREFORE...IRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nIN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/8.  IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nON THIS GENERAL TRACK...PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER...DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE STEERING\r\nFLOW AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN\r\nWILL RESULT FROM A NEW TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD\r\nALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  ON THIS TRACK...IRENE\r\nSHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BECOME A THREAT TO\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS...ESPECIALLY THE UK AND THE GFDL.  NOGAPS KEEPS IRENE QUASI-\r\nSTATIONARY NEAR WESTERN CUBA FOR SEVERAL DAYS...A LESS LIKELY\r\nSOLUTION. \r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nDEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM IRENE.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 20.2N  83.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 21.2N  83.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N  83.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 23.5N  83.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 24.5N  83.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 27.0N  83.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-10-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 13 1999\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND 56 KNOTS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AGO.  THE PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO LOOK\r\nMORE IMPRESSIVE.  LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...I.E. 55 KNOTS.  THERE IS EXCELLENT UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE STORM AND THE WATERS ARE QUITE WARM.  IRENE\r\nIS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...ABOUT THE TIME\r\nIT REACHES WESTERN CUBA.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MAY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nA WELL-DEFINED MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nIS APPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND CURRENTLY PASSING THE\r\nLONGITUDE OF IRENE.  AS THIS FEATURE BYPASSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAND MOVES ON OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC...THE STEERING CURRENT NEAR IRENE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN.  HENCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A\r\nNEW MIDLATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH\r\nAMERICA...IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MIDWEST.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE\r\nA SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR IRENE.  HOWEVER THERE IS\r\nSIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LATER IN THE PERIOD AS\r\nREFLECTED BY THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.  FOR EXAMPLE\r\nTHE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL KEEPS IRENE OVER THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS BUT THE NAVY VERSION OF THE GFDL MODEL ACCELERATES THE\r\nCYCLONE INTO EASTERN GEORGIA BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS STRENGTHENING STORM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES...OR PERHAPS\r\nWARNINGS...MAY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF FLORIDA ON THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 21.1N  83.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.3N  83.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 23.3N  83.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 24.5N  83.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  83.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 28.0N  82.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-10-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 14 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THE CENTER\r\nHAS MOVED SLIGHTLY WEST OF DUE NORTH AND HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT.\r\nALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS UNABLE TO FLY NEAR THE\r\nCOAST OF CUBA DUE TO AIR FORCE REGULATIONS...THEY WERE ABLE TO\r\nUSE THE ON-BOARD RADAR TO ESTIMATE A CENTER.  THEIR ESTIMATE IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE SATELLITE TRENDS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 355/6 KT.  \r\n\r\nWITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE \r\nU.S. EAST COAST THE STEERING CURRENTS NEAR IRENE SHOULD WEAKEN. \r\nMOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 24-36 HRS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nSHOWS A SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A NEW MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\n...CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWESTERN NORTH AMERICA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nINTO THE MIDWEST.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR IRENE.  SEVERAL MODELS...BAMD...THE GFDL\r\nAND UKMET...SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN AND AN INCREASE IN SPEED \r\nBETWEEN 48 AND 72 HRS.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THIS\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nIRENE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THE\r\nCENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CONVECTION...TOPS TO -80C. BASED \r\nON SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW\r\n65 KT MAKING IRENE A HURRICANE. THE WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA IS\r\nRATHER FLAT AND NARROW...AND HISTORICALLY HAS HAD MINIMAL IMPACT \r\nON THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONES WHICH CROSS OVER THE REGION.\r\nWITH WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM WATERS FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. HOWEVER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWINDS MAY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS STRENGTHENING STORM.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES...OR WARNINGS...MAY \r\nBE REQUIRED FOR SOME PORTION OF FLORIDA...AND THE KEYS...LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 21.6N  83.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N  83.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 23.7N  83.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 24.9N  83.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  83.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 28.5N  82.5W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-10-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 14 1999\r\n \r\nRADARS FROM CUBA AND KEY WEST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nIRENE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AS SHOWN BY DATA FROM AN OVERNIGHT FLIGHT\r\nOF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET.  THEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SLOW MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A NEW UPPER\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE IRENE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nTRACK LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS MODEL\r\nINDICATES THAT IRENE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A RECCONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AND THE INTENSITY...65 KNOTS...IS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nIAMGERY.  THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL\r\nAREA NEAR THE CENTER.  A NOAA P3 PLANE WILL CHECK THE WIND STRUCTURE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH IRENE LATER TODAY.  STRENTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY GFDL COUPLED MODEL.   \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 21.7N  83.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 22.7N  83.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 24.0N  83.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 25.5N  83.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 27.0N  83.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-10-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 14 1999\r\n \r\nRADARS FROM CUBA AND KEY WEST...AND SATELLITE IMAGES...INDICATE THAT\r\nIRENE MOVED TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE SHOULD RESUME A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...TAKING IRENE ACROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nTHE UNEXPECTED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK OF IRENE REQUIRES THE\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO THE WATCHES AND WARNING.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS...BUT ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. A\r\nNOAA PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE STRENGTH OF IRENE.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER\r\nTHE WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS\r\nAND THE TREND SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL COUPLED MODEL.   \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 22.9N  82.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 23.4N  82.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 25.0N  81.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 27.0N  81.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 29.0N  81.3W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 33.0N  80.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 14 1999\r\n...VERY SLIGHT CORRECTION TO 12 HR FORECAST POSITION... \r\nIRENE IS POSING SOME FORECASTING CHALLENGES THIS EVENING.  A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO...USING MORE RELIABLE CENTER FIXES FROM THE NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT...THE CENTER WAS RELOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  THIS WAS ALSO INDICATED BY KEY WEST RADAR...WHEN\r\nTHE EYE APPEARED TO REFORM IN THE VICINITY OF HAVANA.  MORE\r\nRECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED\r\nMARKEDLY...AND THE LATEST FIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE SHOW A SLOW AND\r\nERRATIC MOVEMENT.  HOWEVER...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A NORTHWARD\r\nCOURSE AT AROUND 7 KNOTS.  THE RE-POSITIONING OF THE CENTER REQUIRES\r\nA WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS\r\nARE FORECAST TO RISE TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES\r\nINTO THE CENTER PART OF THE U.S.  THIS SHOULD STEER IRENE NORTHWARD\r\nSLOWLY FOR A DAY OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND LBAR GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nNOW THE OTHER CHALLENGE...FORECASTING THE INTENSITY.  IN SPITE OF\r\nTHE CURRENT RAGGEDNESS OF THE SYSTEM...WE STILL BELIEVE THAT THERE\r\nIS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING AS IRENE MOVES OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD BE AN\r\nINHIBITING FACTOR.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nPASCH/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 23.4N  82.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 24.7N  82.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  82.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 27.5N  82.5W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 29.5N  82.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  81.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECT ARE TO WINDS IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH...\r\n \r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM KEY WEST AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF IRENE RE-FORMED TO\r\nTHE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING...AS THE CYCLONE RESUMED A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION. SATELLITE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN AS COLD AS -89C...AND A RADAR\r\nEYE HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING. THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT 85 KT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THESE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MESOCYCLONE IN AN OUTER BAND. THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nREMAIN AT 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...BUT THE GUSTS WILL BE RAISED TO\r\n85 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IRENE IS MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 360/8. THE HURRICANE IS IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO\r\nPARTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nRIDGE BEING SLIGHTLY STRONGER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IRENE ON A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD PRODUCE A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A FASTER FORWARD MOTION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL QUITE CHALLENGING. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nRADAR EYE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING...AND IRENE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF\r\nSHEARING...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE QUITE COLD AND THE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION MAY REDUCE THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...WHICH KEEPS IRENE\r\nA CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IRENE\r\nIS VERY ASYMMETRICAL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 24.1N  82.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.1N  82.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.5N  82.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 28.2N  82.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 30.5N  81.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  79.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-10-15 12:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nBIMINI...GRAND BAHAMA...AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS.  IN\r\nADDITION...BASED ON THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORT OF THE\r\nCENTER POSITION...THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS ARE BEING\r\nADJUSTED ABOUT 20 MILES TO THE EAST.  THIS MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK DOES NOT AFFECT ANY U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS.\r\n  \r\nFRANKLIN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1200Z 24.3N  82.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.1N  82.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.5N  82.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 28.2N  82.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 30.5N  81.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  79.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999\r\n \r\n...CORRECTION TO INDICATE THAT THE 48 HOUR POSITION IS NOT INLAND...\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE KEY WEST RADAR\r\nINDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING AT AN AVERAGE TRACK OF 020/7\r\nOVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS.  SUPERIMPOSED ON THIS MEAN MOTION HAVE\r\nBEEN BRIEF PERIODS OF STATIONARITY AND ABRUPT JUMPS.  WITH THIS\r\nCONTINUED NET NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.  ADDITIONAL WOBBLES IN THE PATH OF\r\nIRENE ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK...LANDFALL WILL OCCUR SOONER...WITHIN 12-18 HOURS.  LONGER\r\nTERM...A MAJOR TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN\r\nSTATES AND ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD CLOSE TO THE COASTS\r\nOF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA.\r\n\r\nA RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORT OF 74 KNOTS AT 850 MB SUPPORTS AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KTS.  HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS IMPROVED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...AND A BIT\r\nOF OUTFLOW HAS RETURNED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  SOME\r\nSTRENTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE POOR\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS SEEMS UNLIKELY.  IF THE HURRICANE TAKES ANOTHER JOG TO THE\r\nNORTH HOWEVER...THIS WOULD DELAY LANDFALL AND ALLOW ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. \r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 24.7N  81.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.7N  81.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 27.2N  81.3W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 29.2N  81.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 32.0N  80.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 37.5N  77.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF IRENE CAME ASHORE OVER CAPE SABLE EARLIER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  LATEST RECONNAISSANCE FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE MOTION IS 030/10.  MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IRENE WILL\r\nTURN MORE TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...\r\nAND SOUTH CAROLINA.\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS OFFSHORE THE\r\nFLORIDA EAST COAST...WHERE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT.  THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE IN\r\nTHE CENTER WAS 985 MB...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT EXTRAPOLATED\r\nPRESSURE...TYPICALLY TOO LOW...WAS 982 MB.  AS THE CENTER MOVES\r\nFURTHER INLAND IRENE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE...\r\nESPECIALLY ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 25.6N  81.0W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 26.8N  81.2W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 28.6N  81.4W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 30.6N  81.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 33.5N  80.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 39.5N  74.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 1999\r\n \r\nIN SPITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATED A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK...KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND...IRENE HAS CONTINUED MOVING\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES FOR A FEW MORE\r\nHOURS...THE CENTER WILL EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC EARLY SATURDAY.\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK HEALTHY AS IT MOVES OVER THE FLAT\r\nSWAMPY EVERGLADES AND...ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER WILL EMERGE INTO\r\nTHE ATLANTIC SOON...IT IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\nHOWEVER WE BELIEVE THAT THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN...AND\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO BE...LIMITED TO THE WATERS TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\nTHIS IS NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION SUITE\r\nWHICH IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 26.4N  80.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 28.2N  80.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 30.0N  79.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 32.0N  79.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 35.0N  77.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  71.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999\r\n\r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM MELBOURNE INDICATE THE IRREGULAR EYE OF IRENE IS\r\nSTRADDLING THE FLORIDA COAST JUST SOUTHEAST OF FT. PIERCE. THE\r\nPASSAGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MAY HAVE TAKEN A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM...\r\nAS CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SYSTEM HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT\r\nDURING THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nHAS JUST REPORTED A 986 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 77 KT WINDS NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER AT 850 MB. ALSO...SHIP ELUB8 REPORTED 65 KT WINDS EAST OF\r\nFT. LAUDERDALE AT 03Z. THUS... HURRICANE STATUS IS MAINTAINED FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/9...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A\r\nNORTHWARD WOBBLE IS IN PROGRESS. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF\r\nIRENE SEEMS TO BE CAUSING THE LONG ANTICIPATED MORE NORTHERLY\r\nMOTION. A COASTAL TROUGH IS FORMING NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...AND\r\nTHIS MAY BE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT ALLOWS THIS TRACK TO\r\nCONTINUE. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS. FIRST...THE\r\nLARGE CIRRUS PLUME EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE HURRICANE SUGGESTS A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD COMPONENT. SECOND...THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A NORTHERLY MOTION...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO\r\nNEAR CHARLESTON SC BY 18/06Z. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A\r\nDISTINCT LEFT BIAS DURING THIS STORM...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nBE SIMILAR...BUT A LITTLE EAST...OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWITH THE CURRENT RADAR PRESENTATION AND ANTICIPATED MOTION OVER THE\r\nGULF STREAM...IRENE COULD INTENSIFY AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER OPEN\r\nWATER. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT MORE NORTHWARD COULD ALSO RESULT IN\r\nINCREASED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE 36 AND 48 HR FORECASTS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IRENE AS A 65 KT HURRICANE\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS COULD OCCUR. IRENE\r\nSHOULD INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH ALONG PARTS OF\r\nTHE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS...AND EXTENDING THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNINGS NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nCOASTS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 27.4N  80.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 29.0N  79.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 30.9N  79.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 33.2N  78.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 36.0N  76.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 43.0N  67.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999\r\n \r\nAFTER MOVING OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE IS A LITTLE\r\nDISORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 986 MB\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE AND PEAK WINDS OF 85 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. IN\r\nADDITION...SHIP WFLG REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 68 KNOTS TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  WINDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO 70 KNOTS.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT BECAUSE\r\nIRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF STREAM...SOME INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE\r\nWEST.  ON THIS TRACK...IRENE SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO AND NOT FAR\r\nFROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND WILL GRADUALLY BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nIRENE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nIN THE AREA SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 28.2N  80.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 29.3N  79.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 31.8N  79.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  78.5W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 39.0N  71.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 50.0N  50.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IRENE HAS A VERY LARGE EYE WITH MINIMAL\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THE HIGHEST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND WAS 72 KNOTS.  THIS MORNING A SHIP REPORTED 68 KTS...AND THE\r\nPRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING DURING THE DAY SO I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP\r\nTHE SURFACE ESTIMATE BELOW 70 KT.  THE MOST RECENT EXTRAPOLATED\r\nESTIMATE FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 982...BUT THESE ARE USUALLY TOO LOW\r\nBY A COUPLE MB.  ALTHOUGH SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY...IRENE WILL PASS OVER SOME WARM WATER PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL AND SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IF THE CONVECTION\r\nBECOMES MORE VIGOROUS. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OF IRENE DURING THE DAY HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND RESEMBLES A\r\nTROCHOIDAL OSCILLATION...WITH THE MEAN MOTION ESTIMATED AT 000/9. \r\nAN ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THIS PLACES A FAIRLY LARGE PORTION OF THE\r\nCOASTLINE UNDER THE RISK OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS.  THE PRIMARY\r\nHAZARD WILL BE ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE ALREADY SATURATED CAROLINA\r\nCOASTAL PLAIN.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 28.8N  80.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 30.4N  79.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 32.6N  79.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.4N  75.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 41.5N  68.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 54.0N  43.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 1999\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME VERY UNIMPRESSIVE...AND THE LACK\r\nOF ECHOES MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FIND THE PRECISE CENTER.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL A STRONG WIND CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY THE SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nAT THIS TIME...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION HAS\r\nCAUSED A DECREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  RECON DATA SHOW A\r\nREDUCTION OF DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE IN THE EYE OF ABOUT 8 DEG C OVER\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KNOTS AND NO\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL.  NONETHELESS...IRENE\r\nWILL BE CROSSING A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM ON SUNDAY AND THIS\r\nCOULD REJUVENATE THE SYSTEM IF VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.\r\n \r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH\r\nACCELERATION AS A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES IRENE FROM THE\r\nWEST.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE\r\nASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THUS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nPASCH/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 29.9N  79.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 31.2N  79.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 34.5N  77.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 42.0N  66.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999\r\n \r\nWHILE A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nIRENE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT IS NOW WEAKENING AND BOTH THE\r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED 850 MB WINDS AS\r\nHIGH AS 71 KT AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 MB. IT IS LIKELY\r\nTHE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST OF IRENE IS\r\nENTRAINING INTO THE HURRICANE AND SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/08. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HEADING FOR IRENE...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCOLD FRONT SEEN ON SURFACE ANALYSES. A BROAD EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE\r\nIS EVIDENT IN THE IMAGERY WITH AN AXIS ALONG 70W. THIS COMBINATION\r\nOF FEATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN IRENE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH\r\nACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nREFLECTS THIS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE\r\nARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE AS TO THE EVENTUAL\r\nFATE OF IRENE NEAR THE 36-48 HR FORECASTS.  THE ECMWF...UKMET...\r\nAND ENVIRONMENT CANADA GLOBAL MODEL TRANSFORM IRENE INTO A LARGE \r\nAND VICIOUS EXTRATROPICAL LOW...WHILE THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND ETA\r\nFAVOR A WEAKER AND MORE SHEARED OUT SOLUTION. THE NHC TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS ASSUME THE STRONGER SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IRENE SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM BEFORE LANDFALL...THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION SHOULD LIKELY\r\nPREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION\r\n...INCREASING SHEAR...AND COLDER AIR AND WATER SHOULD CAUSE IRENE \r\nTO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nAFTER LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nBEVEN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 30.7N  79.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 32.0N  79.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 34.8N  77.4W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 39.0N  70.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 44.0N  61.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999\r\n \r\nIRENE CONTINUES TO GENERATE JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS.   THE MOST RECENT PEAK WINDS FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WERE 68 KNOTS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET \r\nSAMPLED THE CONVECTIVE BURST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IRENE IS\r\nLIKELY TO MAINTAIN MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/9. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A TROUGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HEADING FOR IRENE...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCOLD FRONT SEEN ON SURFACE ANALYSES. A BROAD EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE\r\nIS EVIDENT IN THE IMAGERY WITH AN AXIS NEAR 70W.  AS THE CENTER\r\nAPPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON...THE PATH SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY DEFLECT TO THE RIGHT.  THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO TRACK VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE COAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR\r\nCAPE HATTERAS...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS AT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR\r\nANYWHERE IN THIS INTERVAL.  \r\n\r\nRAINFALL ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN INCREASED...TO 4 TO 8 INCHES OF\r\nADDITIONAL RAINFALL...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.  THESE RAINS ARE \r\nBE FALLING ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE\r\nSERIOUS FLOODING.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 31.7N  79.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 33.2N  79.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  74.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  66.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 47.0N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE AND TRACK OF\r\nIRENE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AN INTENSE BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nLATE THIS MORNING WAS FOLLOWED BY A DROP IN MINIMUM PRESSURE...AN\r\nIMPROVED RADAR DEPICTION AND A CONTRACTION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS.    THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN INCREASE IN WINDS YET...AND THE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD LIMIT ANY INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STARTED TO\r\nMAKE THE ANTICIPATED RIGHTWARD TURN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n040/12.  THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST...BUT IF THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...THE\r\nCENTER...AND ALL HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 32.7N  78.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 34.0N  77.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 37.0N  72.9W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 40.5N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999\r\n \r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF IRENE HAVE CONTINUED WITH\r\nTHE CENTER BECOMING WELL DEFINED AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCOMPACT CENTER.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE RETURN OF MOIST AIR TO THE\r\nCENTER OF THE STORM AS MEASURED BY AIR FORCE RECON.  DEW POINTS AT\r\n850 MB ARE NOW 20C...ABOUT 10C HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  THE\r\nEXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE HAS ALSO DECREASED TO 973 MB.  HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS ARE STILL LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED THE\r\nNORTHEAST MOTION AND IS ACCELERATING.  INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. \r\nTHIS MOTION LESSENS THE THREAT TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...AND IS\r\nTHE REASON FOR DOWNGRADING TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 33.8N  76.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 36.1N  73.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 40.3N  64.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-10-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\nBIG SURPRISE! AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A TIGHT\r\nWIND CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF IRENE. 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 114 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND\r\n129 KT WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 902 MB ON AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE. THE\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 958 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE. \r\n\r\nIRENE HAS ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 055/30. THERE IS LITTLE TO SAY WITH REGARDS TO TRACK\r\nOR INTENSITY. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND EAST-NORTHEAST UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS IN 24\r\nHOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...WHILE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED FOR THE EXPECTED\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN COORDINATION WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 35.6N  73.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 38.1N  68.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 41.5N  59.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-10-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/35.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL AS\r\nWELL AS OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS IRENE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD\r\nIN A FLOW OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ALSO SHOW IRENE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AND\r\nTRANSFORMING INTO A HUGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATOPICAL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IRENE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\n...THERE IS A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS ASSUMED TO BE NEAR 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PERSISTENCE FROM SIX HOURS AGO.  AS IRENE\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...IT COULD RETAIN HURRICANE FORCE WINDS\r\nFOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT CONTINUES NORHTEAST TO EASTWARD OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 37.8N  69.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  63.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 46.0N  50.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 50.0N  37.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 51.0N  30.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-10-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/42.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW IRENE BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD AT NEAR 50 KNOTS\r\nIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND A\r\nSLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND IRENE IS KEPT TROPICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE HURRICANE\r\nIS MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSHORTLY.  IN FACT THE WIND FIELD AS SHOWN IN OUR FORECAST/ADVISORY\r\nIS QUITE LARGE AND SOME OF THESE STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE COLD AIR\r\nBEHIND THE FRONT.  THE MODELS SHOW IRENE TRANSFORMING INTO A LARGE\r\nAND INTENSE LOW OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AND WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE COULD CONTINUE FOR\r\nQUITE SOME TIME. \r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 40.6N  64.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 45.0N  55.5W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 50.0N  43.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 51.5N  36.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 51.5N  31.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-10-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED TO 060/55 OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW IRENE BEING\r\nADVECTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST AND A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS DIMINISHING AND IRENE\r\nIS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE AREA\r\nOF GALE FORCE WINDS IS LARGE AND THE MODELS SHOW IT BECOMING EVEN\r\nLARGER AS IRENE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A HUGE INTENSE LOW OVER\r\nTHE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON IRENE.  FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 43.0N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 47.0N  49.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 51.0N  37.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 51.0N  29.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURES...A BROAD\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  SHIP\r\nMTQU3...LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER REPORTED 20-KNOT\r\nEASTERLY WINDS AND 1006 MB PRESSURE.  THIS IS ENOUGH TO BEGIN\r\nADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN.   BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY\r\nORGANIZED.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN BOTH INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND LOCATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nSINCE THERE WILL BE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SHIPS MODEL BRINGS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO A 75-KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 275/10.\r\nTHERE IS A STRONG 500-MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH WESTWARD STEERING TO\r\nBRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS THE SOLUTION PRODUCED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT\r\nNOGAPS WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES.  WITH THIS TRACK IN MIND...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nNOTE: GLOBAL MODELS ONCE AGAIN DID AN EXCELLENT JOB IN FORECASTING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WELL IN ADVANCED. \r\n \r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 10.0N  51.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 10.0N  53.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 10.5N  55.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 11.0N  57.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N  60.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N  63.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 1999\r\n\r\nA SHIP WITH CALL SIGN C6QG4 LOCATED AT 10.3N 53.1W...NOT TOO FAR\r\nWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER AT 00Z...REPORTED NE WINDS OF ONLY 7\r\nKNOTS WITH A PRESSURE OF 1007.5.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH BETTER-DEFINED\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nIS IMPRESSIVE AND A WESTERLY JET TO THE NORTHEAST IS LIKELY\r\nASSISTING THIS OUTFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nAS IS TYPICAL FOR A SYSTEM IN THE EARLY STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT...THE\r\nCENTER FIXES SHOW A LOT OF SCATTER.  MY ESTIMATE FOR INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 275/10.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD STEER\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS INDICATED BY\r\nMOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL \r\nMODEL NHC98.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OR A PORTION OF THE\r\nWINDWARD ISLANDS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 10.0N  52.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 10.3N  54.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 10.9N  56.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 11.7N  58.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 12.5N  60.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N  64.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-10-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND CLOUD TOPS TO\r\n-80C JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB REFLECTS THIS...AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nJOSE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY\r\nSYMMETRIC APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE CYCLONE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT WITH THE WESTERLY OUTFLOW JET.  WITH NO\r\nIMMEDIATELY IDENTIFIABLE HINDRANCES TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS HURRICANE INTENSITY BY\r\n36 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND THE CENTER LOCATION\r\nREMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 280/9.  A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FIRED JUST NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER AND MULTI-CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING HINTS\r\nTHAT THE CENTER MAY BE REFORMING CLOSER TO THIS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.\r\nTHUS...THE CENTER MAY HAVE TO BE RE-LOCATED LATER THIS MORNING WHEN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOSE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON. \r\n\r\nOTHERWISE...THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nANTICYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH\r\nATLANTIC SHOULD STEER JOSE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 12\r\nHRS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  THIS WILL\r\nMOVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL NHC98...AND REPRESENTS A SLIGHT\r\nRIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PROMPTS THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH FOR BARBADOS...AND HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE BARBADOS\r\nWEATHER SERVICE.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY.  ALL INTERESTS IN \r\nLESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF \r\nTHIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 10.4N  53.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 10.6N  54.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 11.2N  56.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 11.9N  58.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 13.0N  60.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N  64.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-10-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF JOSE IS IMPROVING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION\r\nTHIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS IN THE IR ARE NOT\r\nWELL ORGANIZED YET.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB WERE BOTH 35 KT.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY\r\nFAVORABLE.   BASED ON THE VISIBLE ANIMATION AND THE FORECAST FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING TODAY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY...AND BRINGS\r\nJOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/9.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS ROUGHLY\r\nHALFWAY BETWEEN THE MEDIUM BAM AND CLIPER.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS SHOW JOSE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF A BROADER CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION... WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LONGER TERM...THERE IS A SPLIT\r\nBETWEEN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...WHICH TURN JOSE BACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST...AND THE GFDL RUN OFF THE NAVY NOGAPS FIELDS...WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nTHE BEGINNING OF A RECURAVATURE TRACK.  IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL\r\nWHETHER JOSE POSES A THREAT TO THE CONTINENTAL U.S.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE JOSE THIS AFTERNOON.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR\r\nBARBADOS...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES IN THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL LIKELY\r\nBE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 10.7N  54.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 11.0N  55.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 11.8N  57.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 12.6N  59.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 14.0N  61.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N  65.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-10-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED WIND SPEED TO 40 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH...\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOSE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND PEAK WINDS OF\r\n52 KT AT 1500 FT.  THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...\r\nALTHOUGH THE IR PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED.  THE MOST RECENT\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRING JOSE TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER OF JOSE TO BE NORTH OF PREVIOUS\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES.  MUCH OF THIS NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT IS\r\nBELIEVED TO BE A REORGANIZATION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/10...A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED BUT THE TRACK IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO CORRECT\r\nFOR THE INITIAL POSITION.  THE 72 HOUR POSITION IS ON THE LEFT HALF\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nA SLEW OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES WITH THIS PACKAGE.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES FOR THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 12.4N  55.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 13.0N  57.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 13.9N  58.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 14.9N  60.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N  63.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N  66.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-10-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON FIX WAS AT 2251Z...AND DID NOT SHOW ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...USING A CURVED BAND\r\nPATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\n45 KNOTS.  SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND THERE IS A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM...CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE NAVY VERSION OF THE GFDL MODEL AND\r\nTHE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY MESOSCALE MODEL BOTH SHOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL.  JOSE SHOULD BE\r\nNEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE-DERIVED POSITION ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT ONES.  MY LOCATION AND MOTION ESTIMATES ARE BIASED MORE\r\nTOWARD THE RECON BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES IN SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES.  CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  OVER THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THE STORM TO MOVE MORE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nSMALL MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IN THE VICINITY OF 20N 60W.\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE COULD TURN THE STORM MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  MY FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...BUT\r\nON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTION SUITE.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL WATCHES FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS AND\r\nPUERTO RICO MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 13.2N  56.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 13.9N  58.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 15.1N  60.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.2N  62.2W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.3N  64.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N  67.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-10-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999\r\n \r\nJOSE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH COLDER TOPS AND\r\nINCREASED BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER SEEMS TO HAVE JUMPED AROUND SOME DURING THE\r\nNIGHT...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/11. JOSE IS SOUTH OF\r\nA LARGE RIDGE COVERING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THE RIDGE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS..WHICH SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...AND THE UKMET...WHICH TRACKS JOSE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS\r\nPUERTO RICO.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE OVER JOSE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL\r\nFORECAST THIS ANTICYCLONE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE STORM...\r\nWHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWEVER...\r\nTHESE MODELS ALSO INDICATED SUCH AN ANTICYCLONE WOULD DEVELOP OVER\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...AND THAT FORECAST WAS A TOTAL BUST. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...BUT NOT TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER JOSE AND ONLY BRINGS\r\nIT TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE MOTION AND\r\nCURRENT FORECASTS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH\r\nVIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nALL LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. BY 24 OCTOBER. SHOULD THIS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR\r\nJOSE VERIFY...A NORTHWARD TURN COULD OCCUR AFTER 72 HR. STAY TUNED.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 13.8N  57.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.8N  59.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N  61.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.2N  63.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  65.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 20.5N  68.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-10-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN\r\nORGANIZATION WITH GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.  T-\r\nNUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. \r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KNOTS ON A SMALL\r\nAREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...JOSE IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE AN UPPER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WITH THE HURRICANE...FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  A PERSISTENT STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF JOSE SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THIS IS THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nMODELS.  ONLY THE GFDL TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS.   ON A LONGER RANGE...A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A NORTHERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 14.3N  58.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N  60.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.2N  61.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N  64.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N  66.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  70.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST\r\nSIX HOURS. THE MAIN FEATURES ARE A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE\r\nEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  MINIMUM PRESSURE IS\r\n992 MB AND THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT THE RECON REPORTED AN\r\nELONGATED EYEWALL OPEN TO THE WEST.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65\r\nKNOTS AND I AM BEING GENEROUS.  BECAUSE AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE WITH THE HURRICANE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED.\r\n \r\nJOSE APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A JOG MORE TO NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING\r\nPAST HOUR OR SO...PERHAPS IT IS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...WITH A STRONG 500 MB HIGH TO THE NORTH...JOSE SHOULD TURN\r\nBACK TO A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST.  NONE OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE THE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nBEFORE 36 OR 48 HOURS AND ALL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY BRING JOSE TO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT WOULD BE\r\nHIGHLY UNLIKELY FOR JOSE TO TURN INMEDIATELY NORTHWARD...AND A\r\nSURPRISE TO ALL.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 15.1N  59.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N  61.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.2N  63.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N  65.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.3N  66.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  69.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-10-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA RELAYED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE HAS BEEN MOVING ON\r\nA MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...315/11..OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER IT MAY BE\r\nTEMPORARY...SINCE MID-TROPOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS GATHERED BY THE NOAA\r\nJET IMPLY SUBSTANTIAL RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nTHIS RIDGE COULD FORCE THE MOVEMENT BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON\r\nWEDNESDAY.  OUR CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS MUCH TO THE RIGHT AS\r\nIMPLIED BY THE CURRENT MOTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE MODEL PREDICTION...AND THE MOST RECENT NAVY VERSION OF THE\r\nGFDL MODEL ALSO SHOWS A SIMILAR TRACK.\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL...850 MB...WINDS OF 91 KNOTS\r\nAND THIS IMPLIES MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KNOTS.  CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE...MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WAS DOWN TO 986 MB.  THE RECON\r\nALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS FAIRLY WELL EMBEDDED INTO\r\nA CDO OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  JOSE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL-\r\nORGANIZED...AND ASSUMING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE MUCH\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD\r\nOCCUR.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 15.9N  60.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N  61.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N  63.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.8N  65.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.3N  67.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 23.5N  69.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-10-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND HURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE STRENGTHENING\r\nOVERNIGHT. THE LAST REPORTED MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 980 MB...AND THE\r\nMAXIMUM 850 MB WINDS WERE 99 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VERY\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS TO -85C AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 30 NM WIDE EYE\r\nOPEN TO THE SOUTH. THIS INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DESPITE RESTRICTED\r\nOUTFLOW OR POSSIBLE SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE ON THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL VORTEX NEAR 25N66W THAT MAY BE WEAKENING THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF JOSE AND ALLOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE\r\nVORTEX IS MOVING WESTWARD...WHICH LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nJOSE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nMORE NORTHERLY MOTION AS A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. AFFECTS JOSE. ALL LARGE SCALE AND HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS ALONG THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO SLOWER THAN MUCH OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS...AS THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...NOGAPS...\r\nGFDN...AND UKMET FORECAST JOSE NORTH OF 28N BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX. WHILE THE AVN\r\nAND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO MOVE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST\r\nWITH THE HURRICANE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER\r\nLEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF JOSE. THESE WIND MAXIMA OFTEN DO NOT WEAKEN AS\r\nFAST AS THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST. THERE ARE ALSO THE FACTORS THAT\r\nJOSE IS STEADILY INTENSIFYING AT THIS TIME...AND THAT THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSLOWS THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION AFTER 12 HOURS AND PEAKS THE STORM\r\nAT 100 KT IN 36 HOURS. SHOULD THE SHEAR DECREASE OR STAY AT CURRENT\r\nVALUES...JOSE COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE 64 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA. THE 34 KT WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED...AND ARE IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A 0245Z ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS AND A\r\n07Z DRIFTING BUOY OBSERVATION.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 16.7N  60.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.6N  62.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.8N  63.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  65.3W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N  68.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-10-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 20 1999\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES AND RAOBS SHOW AN UPPER-TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH COULD INFLUENCE BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF\r\nJOSE.  FOR INTENSITY...THE TROUGH COULD INCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW OVER THE HURRICANE...INDUCING SOME SHEAR.  THIS MAY RESULT IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE STRENGTHENING AS\r\nINDICATED BY MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER....JOSE IS INTENSIFYING AT THIS TIME. LATEST\r\nINFORMATION FROM THE RECON INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE WAS 978 MB...\r\nDOWN FROM 983 MB EARLIER THIS MORNING.  A DROPSONDE MEASURED MAX\r\nWINDS OF 111 KNOTS AT THE 964-MB LEVEL AND 85 KNOTS NEAR THE\r\nSURFACE.\r\n \r\nFOR TRACK...THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH ABOVE 400 MB COULD MEAN THAT\r\nTHE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS. THIS\r\nCOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  IN FACT...THE MODELS ARE\r\nALREADY CHANGING THEIR TUNE AND TURN JOSE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nQUICKER THAN IN YESTERDAY RUNS. IF THIS TREND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND NORTH NOW INDICATED BY THE ALL MODELS BEGINS DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS...WARNINGS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WILL BE\r\nRE-EVALUATED.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 17.1N  61.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.9N  62.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N  64.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  66.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.5N  67.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  67.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 20 1999\r\n \r\nLATEST RECON REPORT SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE\r\nOF HURRICANE JOSE MIGHT HAVE BEEN DISRUPTED SOME WHILE CROSSING\r\nANTIGUA.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY AND THE EYE COULD\r\nREORGANIZE OVER OPEN WATER.  THE CLOUD PATTERN FROM SATELLITE\r\nCONTINUES WELL ORGANIZED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC REMAIN AT 5.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE.   SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WHILE JOSE IS\r\nINTERACTING WITH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  \r\n\r\nTHEREAFTER...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER-TROUGH EXTENDING FROM\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AND\r\nTHE ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH COULD INFLUENCE BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY\r\nOF JOSE.  FOR INTENSITY...THE TROUGH COULD INCREASE THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE HURRICANE...INDUCING SOME SHEAR.  THIS\r\nMAY RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR FUTURE\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP A STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE HURRICANE.  ONLY A MODEST INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFOR TRACK...THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH ABOVE 400 MB COULD MEAN THAT\r\nTHE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS NOT AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS. THIS\r\nCOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK AND INDEED...MODELS ARE\r\nTURNING JOSE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUICKER THAN IN YESTERDAY\r\nRUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE UK MODEL...\r\nBRINGS JOSE TO THE NORTH BUT NOT FAR FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND\r\nPUERTO RICO.   BECAUSE THIS DISTANCE IS WITHIN THE AVERAGE RANGE OF\r\n24-H FORECAST ERRORS...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE\r\nU.S VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nA NEW RECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 17.5N  62.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.3N  63.6W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N  65.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.5N  67.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-10-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING A TAD TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n300/9 KT.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REGARDING\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 24 HRS.  THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BENDS TO NORTH...\r\nTHEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATES AS A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE U.K. METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nOUTPUT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT JOSE WILL BE CLOSE TO\r\nMERGING WITH A FRONTAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nSO JOSE MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nTHERE WAS A RECENT DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT OF 994 MB SURFACE PRESSURE\r\nBY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE WINDS ON THE DROP\r\nINDICATE THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER SO THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IS KEPT AT 990 MB.  THE CLOUD PATTERN SEEN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY IS NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A CDO WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS TO -85C...WHICH HAS\r\nBEEN EXPANDING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nTHIS IS CONFIRMED IN SYNOPTIC FLOW DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NOAA G-IV\r\nAIRCRAFT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 85 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WHILE JOSE IS\r\nINTERACTING WITH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR\r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HRS.  THIS PRESUMES THAT THE\r\nSHEAR DOES NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER PASSING NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF PUERTO RICO IN 12-24 HOURS.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THIS PRECISE\r\nTRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.  THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE\r\nTRACK FORECAST ERROR IS CLOSE TO 100 STATUTE MILES AT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 17.8N  63.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.4N  64.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.7N  65.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.6N  66.7W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  67.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 36.0N  62.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-10-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 21 1999\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVER THE\r\nPAST 18 HOURS INDICATE THAT JOSE IS WEAKENING UNDER RELENTLESS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 992...UP 11\r\nMB SINCE 13Z YESTERDAY...AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECORDED\r\nBY THE AIRCRAFT IN THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 65 KT.  THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF WHICH HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT...AND IT IS IN FACT\r\nQUESTIONABLE WHETHER ANY SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXIST AT\r\nTHE SURFACE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN\r\nIN ANOTHER DAY OR SO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS SOME MODEST\r\nAND BRIEF REINTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nJOSE IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED...WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/12.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24 HRS.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BENDS TO NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCELERATES AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT JOSE WILL BE CLOSE TO\r\nMERGING WITH A FRONTAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nSO JOSE MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 18.5N  64.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N  65.9W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.4N  67.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 23.8N  67.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 28.0N  67.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 41.0N  61.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-10-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 21 1999\r\n\r\nSTRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WE HAVE BEEN\r\nOBSERVING IN WV IMAGES SINCE YESTERDAY...HAVE PARTIALLY REMOVED THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOSE.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY\r\nRECON.  JOSE IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. \r\nMANY TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN IN THIS REGION AS THEY INTERACT WITH\r\nTHE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH NORMALLY IS LOCATED IN THIS\r\nAREA. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON DEVELOPING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nJOSE.  IF THIS IS THE CASE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD RESTRENGTHEN\r\nONCE IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE JOSE HAS BEEN SHEARED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nLARGE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWEEP THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH NORTH AND NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 18.6N  65.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.2N  66.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.6N  67.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N  67.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 29.0N  66.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 41.0N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-10-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING FROM THE U.S. TO THE WESTERN\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.  THE 12Z UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ACCELERATES THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL IS MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE UKMET MODEL\r\nAND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE RECON SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 993 MB AT 1730Z AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO RECON IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT QUADRANT.  GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING AGAIN AND THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO\r\n65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  JOSE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY\r\n72 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND MOVES OVER\r\nCOLD WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND\r\nPUERTO RICO ARE ALL LESS THAT SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND THE\r\nWARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR BERMUDA LATER\r\nTONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 19.2N  65.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.2N  66.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 22.7N  67.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  66.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  65.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 44.0N  55.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 21 1999\r\n \r\nTHE MOST RECENT DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR\r\nIN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOSE IS LOCATED\r\nON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08 KT.  THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JOSE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH ON FRIDAY...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nINTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS\r\nA MARKED ACCELERATION BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HRS...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL AND UKMET....AND IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF JOSE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH A\r\nLARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -85C...\r\nCONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE U.S. AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER\r\nCENTRAL ARE ALL 55 KT...AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST\r\nTO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  JOSE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBY 72 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS/MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR BERMUDA\r\nFRIDAY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 19.6N  66.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.2N  66.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.5N  67.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N  65.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 31.5N  63.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 46.0N  53.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nOVERNIGHT INDICATE THAT JOSE IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 330/7.  THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JOSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD TODAY AND ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON\r\nSATURDAY...IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING\r\nFROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS...TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL MOTION.  THE FORECAST ACCELERATION\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD IS NOT AS LARGE AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nJOSE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND THE RECON FIXES\r\nSHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW JUST INSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nHIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE ABOUT 55 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  I\r\nAM HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT GIVEN THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF\r\nTHE STORM...EVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUGGEST A\r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS JOSE TO 61 KT IN 36 HOURS.  JOSE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS AND/OR MERGES\r\nWITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR BERMUDA\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 20.3N  66.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.3N  66.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 23.7N  66.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 28.0N  65.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 34.0N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 49.0N  50.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOSE IS A SHEARED\r\nSYSTEM WITH REJUVENATING CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED BUT\r\nTIGHT CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEVER RELAXED AS EXPECTED OR\r\nFORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...IF JOSE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE OF THE\r\nSHEAR.  JOSE COULD THEN RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN 72 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nJOSE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE\r\nAPPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEASTWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS CLEARLY CAPTURE THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE JOSE\r\nRAPIDLY NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND 36 HOURS.  ON\r\nTHIS TRACK...JOSE SHOULD PASS EAST OF BERMUDA...BUT INTERESTS IN\r\nBERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE UNTIL THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST MOTION MATERIALIZES.\r\n \r\nA FEEDER BAND ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 20.2N  66.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N  66.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N  65.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 30.0N  63.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 37.0N  58.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 51.0N  45.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REGENERATE OVER THE CENTER.  THE\r\nOVERALL PATTERN IS SHEARED BUT A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN\r\nEARLIER TODAY.  JOSE COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF THE SHEAR DECREASES AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10.  THE APPROACHING\r\nSTRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH STEERING TO MOVE JOSE NORTH\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS AN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.  ALTHOUGH JOSE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO PASS WELL EAST OF BERMUDA....INTERESTS IN THAT ISLAND SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOSE.\r\n \r\nRAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE ARE PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG\r\nSQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 21.2N  65.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N  65.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 26.0N  64.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 32.0N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 40.0N  55.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 51.0N  44.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/10 BASED ON A RECENT AIR FORCE RECON FIX.\r\nTHE REASONING FOR THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A MAJOR\r\nAMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIME PROVINCES AND EXTENDING WELL SOUTHWARD IN 72 HOURS.  THIS\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE JOSE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ACCELERATES THE FORWARD SPEED TO 40 OR SO\r\nKNOTS AFTER 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL AND IS SLIGHTLY EAST\r\nOF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS (FROM 22/1200Z).\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nBUT THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED ONLY 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB.  THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IN 24 HOURS AND JOSE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND BE ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH IN 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH JOSE IS FORECAST TO PASS 150 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA...\r\nINTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE STORMS PROGRESS.\r\n \r\nRAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH JOSE CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE\r\nNORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 22.7N  65.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 24.6N  64.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 28.0N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 34.3N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 42.0N  56.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB...WHICH IS UP 3 MB FROM 24 HOURS AGO. \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW OUTSIDE AND SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...WHEREAS LAST NIGHT IT WAS JUST INSIDE.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT AT 850 MB ABOUT\r\n90 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER A GPS DROPSONDE AT\r\nTHIS LOCATION MEASURED ONLY 38 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE DROP ALSO\r\nMEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 999 MB...INDICATING AN EXTREMELY WEAK\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT.  A SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS BY THE NOAA HURRICANE\r\nRESEARCH DIVISION...BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...SHOWS A PEAK\r\nSURFACE WIND OF 49 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 50 KT\r\nAND MAY YET BE A BIT GENEROUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR JUST\r\nAHEAD OF THE STORM MAY BE A LITTLE LESS.  HOWEVER...ON ITS MOST\r\nRECENT PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A VERY LARGE AREA\r\nOF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND COULD NOT FIND A SINGLE WELL DEFINED\r\nCENTER.  IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT LESSEN VERY SOON...JOSE MAY DISSIPATE\r\nQUICKLY...RATHER THAN BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL\r\nFASTER THAN THE UKMET GUIDANCE.  IF IT SURVIVES...THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nREMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 23.5N  64.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.7N  63.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 29.6N  62.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 35.5N  60.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 45.0N  54.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE WILL NOT BE ANY MORE RECON FLIGHTS INTO JOSE...SO WE WILL\r\nDEPEND ON SATELLITE MEASUREMENTS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR OUR INPUT DATA.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LLCC REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.\r\nLATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 45 KNOTS FROM MIAMI\r\nAND WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\nAT 50 KNOTS.  SHIPS FORECAST SCHEME NOW SLOWLY WEAKENS THE SYSTEM\r\nAND OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.\r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES AND\r\nACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF MAJOR\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 24.7N  64.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.7N  63.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.1N  62.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 35.9N  59.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 44.0N  53.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999\r\n \r\nNOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING.  LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT THE LLCC REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.\r\nLATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KNOTS FROM\r\nMIAMI AND WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 50 KNOTS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AT 50\r\nKNOTS UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL EXPAND AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE WIND RADII FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 025/13 KNOTS.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO PREVIOUS PACKAGES AND ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM\r\nTHE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 25.9N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 28.1N  62.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  60.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 40.0N  56.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 1999\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH JOSE REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRRUS\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CONVECTION TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE IS STILL 025/13. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING\r\nFROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AS JOSE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN FRONT OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD\r\nFRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB REMAIN 55\r\nKT...55 KT...AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 50 KT. WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL\r\nDIFLUENCE IS INCREASING OVER JOSE...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY\r\nENOUGH ORGANIZED THAT STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN COORDINATION WITH THE\r\nMARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 27.0N  62.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N  61.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 35.1N  58.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 43.0N  53.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 1999\r\n \r\nA TRMM OVERPASS FROM THE NRL HOMEPAGE AT 0517Z SHOWED THAT THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER OF JOSE WAS BETTER ENGAGED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nTHIS WOULD SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING...AND INDEED THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS UP TO 65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  SSTS SHOULD BE DECREASING\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SO NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. JOSE WILL\r\nACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE MAJOR TROUGH IN THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET GUIDANCE.  SOME\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS TURN JOSE INTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 28.9N  61.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 32.3N  60.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 38.5N  56.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 47.0N  50.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANOTHER TRMM OVERPASS FROM THE NRL\r\nMONTERY TROPICAL CYCLONE HOMEPAGE CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER IS WELL\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nSUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO JOSE IS BEING UPGRADED AGAIN.  NO\r\nADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS PREDICTED SINCE SSTS DECREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK.  SINCE JOSE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 030/18.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nEAST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE AVN MODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO BE HANDLING JOSE FAIRLY WELL AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nTHE RADII OF 12 FOOT SEAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED AFTER COORDINATION WITH\r\nTHE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 30.6N  60.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 34.5N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 41.0N  52.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 48.0N  45.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jose","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 1999\r\n\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING HAS INCREASED AGAIN OVER JOSE...AND THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO AN\r\nINCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  JOSE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nINVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE SOON...AND THEN ABSORBED BY THE\r\nACCOMPANYING LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS NOW ABOUT 30 KNOTS.  NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE\r\nTO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST RUN\r\nOF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 33.0N  59.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 38.0N  56.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 45.0N  49.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-10-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 24 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JOSE IS STARTING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL\r\nZONE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THERE IS NOT YET A\r\nCOLD FRONT APPARENT SOUTH OF THE STORM. THUS...JOSE REMAINS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PACKAGE. EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 60 KT BASED ON WARMING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE\r\nMORE BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE.\r\n\r\nJOSE SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 36.0N  57.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 41.0N  54.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-10-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 25 1999\r\n \r\nJOSE IS STILL PRODUCING A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AS IT STARTS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  WITHIN A FEW\r\nHOURS IT WILL BYPASS THE GULFSTREAM AND ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AS\r\nIT CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  JOSE SHOULD\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 6-12 HOURS AND MERGE WITH A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.  \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON JOSE.  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nTHE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER\r\nWMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 39.5N  55.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 46.0N  48.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-10-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 28 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 2223Z...WHEN THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 37 KT AT 1500 FT AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  AT THAT TIME THE CENTER WAS ON THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WAS MOVING LITTLE.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IT APPEARS HAVE RESUMED A MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION OF 280/5.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THIS ESTIMATE...AS THERE IS A MID-LEVEL VORTEX TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE PRESUMED CENTER THAT IS MOVING MORE RAPIDLY\r\nWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT MID-LEVELS THAT\r\nSHOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST WITHIN 18-30 HOURS. \r\nBEYOND THAT...A TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nCOULD IMPART A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES\r\nSOME FAIRLY ROUGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINFALL.  THE COLOMBIAN METEOROLOGICAL\r\nSERVICE REPORTS THAT SAN ANDRES RECEIVED 3.58 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE\r\nLAST SIX HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT...WITH SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES 0F 30 AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL PREDICTS A SIGNIFICANT LESSENING OF THE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR NOW OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 52\r\nKT PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT LESS\r\nAGGRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 11.7N  81.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 11.8N  82.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 12.0N  83.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 12.5N  85.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 13.0N  87.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N  90.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-10-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999\r\n \r\nAS IS THE CASE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WEAK SYSTEMS THE\r\nCENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...CENTER FIXES FROM SAB AND MIAMI\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LLCC IS STILL PROGRESSING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS\r\nBUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST OF THE CENTER\r\nCOMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ANALYSES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n285/05.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE SAN ANDRES WIND OBSERVATION AT\r\n06 UTC OF 350/10...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE\r\nCENTER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND.  IN FACT...THE ARRIVAL\r\nOF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM THE EAST...NOW LOCATED ABOUT 78-79W...MAY\r\nBE CAUSING AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE WIND FIELD AS THE TWO SYSTEMS MERGE\r\nAND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER MAY FORM.  THIS WILL BE MORE\r\nEVIDENT WITH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TWO CAMPS.  THE BAMS...STATISTICAL AND\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHILE THE\r\nLBAR...UKMET...AND AVN TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. IN EITHER\r\nCASE THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER LAND FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME\r\nAND MAY DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PREVAILS\r\nAND THE SYSTEM CAN SURVIVE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS\r\nAND MAY REINTENSIFY...WHICH IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MAIN\r\nTHREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION REMAINS THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL.\r\n   \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...WITH SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES 0F 30 AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT A SIGNIFICANT\r\nLESSENING OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR NOW OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND\r\nFORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND MAKES THE SYSTEM A\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 11.8N  82.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 12.0N  83.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 12.5N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 13.2N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 14.0N  86.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 16.0N  88.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-10-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN\r\nREVEAL A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z OBSERVATION FROM SAN\r\nANDRES ISLAND WHICH REPORTED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.  THUS...THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.\r\nAN EXTENDED SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK SINCE LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/08 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION \r\nIS EXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nPOSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nAND CLOUD DRIFT WINDS FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.\r\n\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...ALONG WITH NOGAPS AND THE UK METEOROLOGICAL\r\nOFFICE MODELS...SHOW THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DRIFTING\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS IN A\r\nSHEARED...WEAKENED STATE AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL WAVE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNKNOWN.  IN\r\nFACT...A BANDING FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CENTER...NEAR\r\n15N...AND EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.  THE FORECAST\r\nSTILL SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE \r\n12Z TRACK GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE.  THE NHC TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UK MET OFFICE TRACK...AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER\r\nNORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM EMERGES\r\nINTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 48 HOURS AND MAY RE-INTENSIFY...WHICH \r\nIS WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS. HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD DISSIPATE OVER LAND.  \r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS \r\nSCHEDULED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE\r\nGOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND COLOMBIA THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nSOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS AND FOR THE SAN ANDRES ISLANDS WILL BE\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 13.0N  82.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 13.7N  83.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.4N  84.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.0N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.0N  86.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.5N  87.5W    30 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-10-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999\r\n \r\nTHE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT PASS\r\nTHROUGH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FOUND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\n(1500 FT) WIND OF 43 KNOTS...A SURFACE WIND OF 35 KNOTS AND A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION\r\nON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER CORRESPONDING TO WHERE THE RECON\r\nOBSERVED THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10 KNOTS. ON THIS HEADING KATRINA\r\nSHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 2-4\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY SHOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE UK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE MODEL.  KATRINA IS\r\nFORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY 36 HOURS AND MAY\r\nRE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY\r\nSURROUNDING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE\r\nOVER LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 13.6N  83.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N  84.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N  85.7W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N  86.7W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.1N  87.3W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.5N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-10-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 29 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS THIS\r\nEVENING.  THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME IR\r\nIMAGERY...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED ON TRACK AND MOVED\r\nINLAND.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS RATHER DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL FROM THE 12Z AVN RUN THIS MORNING\r\nDRIFTED KATRINA SOUTHWARD...KEEPING IT OFFSHORE.  AS THIS FORECAST\r\nIS ALREADY VERIFYING POORLY WE WILL PAY IT NO FURTHER HEED.  THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH HAS DONE THE BEST JOB WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...TAKES\r\nKATRINA NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN\r\nU.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TRACK...WITH A\r\nSPEED THAT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS FAST AS\r\nTHE UKMET. \r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA WEST OF THE CENTER. \r\nMULTICHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING\r\nDIFFUSE AND ILL DEFINED.  WITH THE CENTER NOW OVER LAND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 30 KT...HOWEVER SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH MAY REMAIN.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION MAY WELL DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nIT HANGS TOGETHER...THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT A RETURN TO\r\nSTORM STRENGTH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 13.9N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.6N  84.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.5N  86.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N  87.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N  87.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N  88.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-10-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME IR IMAGERY...BUT\r\nIT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED ON TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 310/9.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT.  THE UKMET...\r\nWHICH HAS DONE THE BEST JOB WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR...TAKES\r\nKATRINA NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE YUCATAN IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A CUTOFF LOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN\r\nU.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TRACK...BUT WITH A\r\nSPEED THAT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nWITH THE CENTER NOW OVER LAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30\r\nKNOTS...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IF THE\r\nDEPRESSION SURVIVES ITS TRAVERSE OVER LAND...THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT\r\nWOULD SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.\r\n...THEN INLAND AGAIN AND WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN AND IF THE\r\nSYSTEM SURVIVES TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...FOR THOSE COUNTRIES WHICH THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER... AND\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 14.5N  84.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.3N  85.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 16.6N  87.1W    30 KTS...GULF OF HONDURAS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.4N  87.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.9N  88.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N  88.5W    30 KTS...GULF OF MEXICO\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-10-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED\r\nON A MORE WESTERLY HEADING AND HAS SLOWED DOWN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/06 KNOTS.  THE OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT WITH MOST SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nWHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM INLAND.  THE UKMET...WHICH HAS PERFORMED THE\r\nBEST WITH THIS SYSTEM...TAKES KATRINA NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE CUTOFF LOW...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS\r\n...LIFTING OUT INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BUT IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LEFT AND A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAINLY \r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE TOPS HAVE\r\nBEEN WARMING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL\r\nEXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR PER IR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS\r\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED \r\nTO 25 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER LAND FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES ITS TRAVERSE\r\nOVER LAND...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS\r\nWOULD SUPPORT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.\r\nTHIS WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS THE CENTER WOULD MOVE INLAND \r\nOVER THE YUCATAN.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nBECOMES HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER-LOW MENTIONED ABOVE. AGAIN...\r\nALL OF THIS IS CONTINGENT ON THE SYSTEM SURVIVING ITS TREK ACROSS \r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS. \r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...FOR NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR.  THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  RAINBANDS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE\r\nGULF OF HONDURAS ARE SPREADING INTO GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG\r\nGUSTY WINDS.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 14.3N  85.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 14.8N  85.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N  86.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-10-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF KATRINA IS BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND CONSEQUENTLY...HAS BECOME VERY\r\nDIFFUSE.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nHAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST/SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND IN FACT...\r\nTHERE MAY BE MULTIPLE CENTERS. AS A COMPROMISE...I HAVE CHOSEN \r\nTO USE A CENTRAL POINT ALONG THE AXIS AS THE CENTER.  USING THIS\r\nPOSITION...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/07 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nAS WAS THE CASE EARLIER...MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS DIVERGENT. THE UKMET...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS\r\nSYSTEM...NOW DISSIPATES KATRINA BY 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS\r\nTHE SYSTEM OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...MOVES IT INTO THE GULF\r\nOF HONDURAS BY 24 HOURS...INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN 36 HOURS...WITH \r\nA 72 HOUR POINT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK IS\r\nCONTINGENT ON THE SYSTEM SURVIVING ITS TREK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF HONDURAS. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER ALTHOUGH CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE COAST\r\nOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE \r\nTHAT THE CONDITIONS COULD BECOME A BIT MORE FAVORABLE BY 24 HOURS\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL HAVE LITTLE TIME TO RE-ORGANIZE. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES INCREASING HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH\r\nTHE UPPER-LOW...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS...LIFTING OUT INTO \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST/EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST CONTINUES A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEIR IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINLY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES\r\nTHE NEXT 12-24 HOURS MUCH LESS 72. GIVEN THE SYSTEMS LOCATION \r\nAND THE POSSIBILITY THAT A CENTER COULD RE-LOCATE/RE-FORM OUT \r\nOVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WE WILL HOLD ON TO IT FOR NOW.  \r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY IN\r\nPORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA\r\nWHERE RAINBANDS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING ONSHORE. THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES CONTINUES..ESPECIALLY IN\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 14.9N  85.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.5N  86.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N  87.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 23.5N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-10-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 30 1999\r\n \r\nKATRINA HAS PULLED A HALLOWEEN TRICK. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CIRCULATION WAS\r\nELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHERN NICARAGUA. OBSERVATIONS FROM LA CEIBA AND ROATAN IN\r\nHONDURAS HAVE SHOWN PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...INDICATING THE\r\nCENTER HAS RE-FORMED OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS REQUIRES A RE-\r\nLOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nWITH THE REFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AT BEST A GUESS AND IS\r\nSET TO 305/9. THE HURRICANE GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT...WITH THE\r\nBAMS TAKING KATRINA TO THE PACIFIC IN 72 HOURS AND THE BAMD TAKING\r\nIT TO THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF\r\nSTATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BY ALL LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD RECURVE KATRINA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECT THIS...AND IS SHIFTED NORTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE 72 HOUR POINT\r\nMAY NOT BE FAR ENOUGH EAST...BUT THERE IS ALREADY SO A LARGE CHANGE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THAT I AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE IT FURTHER.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 25 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY...WITH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED.\r\nTHUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. SINCE SOME EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR REMAINS...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER MOVES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST\r\nIS COMPLEX. THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS DEVELOP A LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT APPEARS RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...IT WOULD LIKELY ABSORB KATRINA. THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD ALSO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND BECOME THE FOCUS OF THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE\r\nTHAT KATRINA COULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT LEAVES THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR\r\nKATRINA TO SURVIVE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA SPECIAL THANKS GOES TO THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF HONDURAS FOR\r\nSENDING VALUABLE OBSERVATIONS VIA FAX AFTER NORMAL COMMUNICATIONS\r\nHAD BROKEN DOWN.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 16.9N  87.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.9N  88.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.4N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.2N  88.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.5N  87.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 28.0N  84.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-10-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN OCT 31 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BELIZE AND MEXICO SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE LATEST 0600 UTC\r\nPOSITION INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MUCH FASTER AND THIS\r\nMAY BE A RESULT OF THE RELOCATION PROCESS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW INCREASED TO 340/15.  WITH THIS\r\nFASTER INITIAL MOTION THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES THE SYSTEM\r\nFASTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS THE BAMS WHICH\r\nTAKES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  ALSO THE\r\nUKMET WANTS TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE VARIOUS MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALLS ANYWHERE IN FLORIDA FROM THE\r\nPANHANDLE TO THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT...OF COURSE...MUCH FASTER.  IF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST COMES TO FRUITION THAN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED EITHER LATER TODAY OR EARLY TOMORROW FOR SOME PORTION OF\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  \r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUGGEST THAT KATRINA IS A WEAK\r\nDEPRESSION WITH 25 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.\r\nIN LIGHT OF THE FASTER FORWARD MOTION THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN AS PER THE SHIPS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BRFORE IT MERGES WITH THE\r\nLOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 18.9N  88.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 21.1N  89.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.1N  89.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 26.9N  87.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 29.4N  84.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  78.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-10-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN OCT 31 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA SUGGESTS THAT THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF KATRINA IS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 345/09 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING \r\nIS INDICATED THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nGULF OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE TRACK. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR\r\nKATRINA TO REACH AND MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WILL BE ON\r\nA MORE EASTERLY TRACK WHERE A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nLIKELY TO EXISTS. KATRINA IS FORECAST BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72\r\nHOURS AS IT MERGES WITH...OR IS ABSORBED BY...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK OF KATRINA IS HINGED ON THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH \r\nOVER TEXAS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. BASED ON BOTH THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND ON THE 12Z TRACK GUIDANCE...WHERE ONLY LBAR SHOWS A\r\nMORE WESTERN TRACK AND MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE EASTERN FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE AFTER 36 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nEMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATTER\r\nPORTION OF THIS TRACK. BASED ON THE PROJECT TRACK SCENARIO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST\r\nFLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE \r\nIN FLORIDA...AND IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 19.3N  88.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 21.6N  88.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 25.0N  87.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 28.0N  84.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N  79.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 37.0N  70.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-10-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN OCT 31 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF KATRINA HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nCOUPLED WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF KATRINA IS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  THIS REPRESENTS A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WEAK SYSTEMS LIKE THIS CAN BE A CHALLENGE TO\r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY OVER LAND.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n325/08 KT.\r\n \r\nANALYSIS OF UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO SHOWS A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR EASTERN/CENTRAL CUBA WITH A\r\nRIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 22N/23N.  KATRINA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS FEATURE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nTURN NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST MONDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE \r\nAXIS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST LATE\r\nMONDAY/TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER\r\nEASTERN TEXAS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nAND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITH THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nRUNNING LATE TODAY...THERE WAS LITTLE TRACK GUIDANCE AVAILABLE FROM\r\n12Z MODELS RUNS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  THE FORECAST BRINGS KATRINA\r\nTO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS AND MAINTAINS THAT\r\nINTENSITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE\r\nQUESTION IS WHETHER KATRINA MAINTAINS ITS IDENTITY OR IS ABSORBED BY\r\nTHE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. KATRINA IS FORECAST BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBY 72 HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH...OR IS ABSORBED BY...THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE PROJECT TRACK SCENARIO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST FLORIDA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY\r\nFRIDAY.  ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA...AND IN THE CENTRAL \r\nAND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 19.5N  89.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N  89.9W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.4N  89.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 25.0N  87.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 27.5N  84.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-11-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN OCT 31 1999\r\n \r\nLAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWED THAT KATRINA WAS PRETTY MUCH\r\nON TRACK...WITH AN INTIAL MOTION OF 325/8.  THE CENTER IS STILL OVER\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOWS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE IN THE GULF AHEAD OF\r\nKATRINA.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH THEN RAPIDLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST...AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW NOW IN EAST TEXAS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBASED ON OFFSHORE RECON DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n20 KT.  KATRINA WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE TOMORROW MORNING...AND THERE\r\nMAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGHEN AT THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...\r\nSHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE CUTOFF LOW SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT\r\nTROPICAL INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS KATRINA\r\nAS A DISTINCT ENTITY FOR 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT\r\nKATRINA WILL BECOME ABSORBED OR DISSIPATE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY\r\nNOW IN THE WESTERN GULF BEFORE THEN.  ASSUMING THAT KATRINA...WHICH\r\nHAS HELD ITSELF TOGETHER ADMIRABLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...DOES\r\nBEGIN TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHERN GULF...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nMAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY MONDAY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 20.2N  89.9W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 21.2N  90.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.3N  89.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 29.0N  81.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-11-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MERIDA MEXICO SHOW\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS STILL SOUTH OF MERIDA.  LATEST INTIAL MOTION IS\r\n020/6.  SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE SYSTEM MAY\r\nBE SLOWING TO BEGIN ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...\r\nNUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FROM ETA...AVN...AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS LOST ITS OPPORTUNITY TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST AND WILL BE FORCED MORE EASTWARD AND DISSIPATED IN THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS.  THE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE\r\nABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 20 KT.  KATRINA WILL BE MOVING\r\nOFFSHORE LATER TODAY...AND THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AT THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE..THE\r\nAPPROACHING FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED SHEAR WILL DISSIPATE KATRINA\r\nAND THE MOISTURE WILL BE ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THIS\r\nFORECAST WOULD ELIMINATE THE NEED FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 20.6N  89.6W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 21.4N  89.3W    20 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N  87.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 23.4N  84.9W    DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-11-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON NOV 01 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL POSITION...\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT \r\nTHE CENTER OF KATRINA IS STILL INLAND OVER THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA JUST SOUTH OF MERIDA...WHICH RECENTLY REPORTED A LIGHT\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST WIND.  PROGRESSO...LOCATED JUST NORTH OF MERIDA...\r\nREPORTED A LIGHT EAST WIND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/4 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 20 KT.  KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOFFSHORE LATER TODAY HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT FAST-APPROACHING FROM\r\nTHE WEST WILL LIKELY PROVIDE LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT. \r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND CALLS FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST...THEN NORTHEAST MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS.  DISSIPATION/ABSORPTION OF KATRINA BY THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS ALTHOUGH THIS MAY\r\nOCCUR SOONER...MUCH SOONER. \r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND\r\nCOULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...\r\nPLEASE REFER TO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS\r\nFOR FURTHER INFORMATION. \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 20.8N  89.5W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 21.7N  88.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 22.6N  86.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-11-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON NOV 01 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DIFFUSE AND THE CENTER IS HARD TO\r\nIDENTIFY...EVEN ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.  KATRINA IS BEING\r\nABSORBED INTO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  THIS IS CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE.  THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF DRY STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE REDEVELOPMENT.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ALSO SIMILAR...HOWEVER SINCE THE CENTER IS\r\nBECOMING DIFFICULT TO FIND RIGHT NOW...NO POSITIONS ARE GIVEN BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINAS REMNANTS AND A MOIST TROPICAL FLOW\r\nFROM THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF...COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL\r\nZONE...STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nREFER TO STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 21.1N  89.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 21.7N  87.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 22.5N  85.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-11-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT NOV 13 1999\r\n \r\nA US AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED\r\nTHE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AND REPORTED A NOT-TOO-WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  DEPRESSION ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE BASIS OF THIS\r\nINFORMATION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW PLENTY OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...BUT NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SO THERE ARE NO FAST CHANGES\r\nTAKING PLACE AT THIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE 30 KNOT MAX ONE-MIN WINDS EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHEN SOME\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 170/05.  ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nSHOW A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS\r\nNORTH AMERICA TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 DAYS...GREATLY\r\nAMPLIFYING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.  THIS EXTENDS THE WESTERLIES SOUTH\r\nTO THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO RESPOND WITH AN EASTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NAVY NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LOCATED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...NEAR AND\r\nSOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA...AND JUST WEST OF JAMAICA.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 16.5N  81.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  81.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.7N  80.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 15.8N  78.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  77.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  72.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-11-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT NOV 13 1999\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY\r\nTHIS EVENING.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nEASTWARD INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DECREASED VERTICAL SHEAR...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN CIMSS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS. \r\nTHIS COULD HAPPEN SOONER IF THE CURRENT ORGANIZING TREND IS\r\nMAINTAINED.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE BUT MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...WHICH ENHANCES LOW CLOUDS...SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW\r\nHEADED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  A LARGE AND VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMUM...CURRENTLY MOVING FROM CANADA TO THE GREAT\r\nLAKES...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 1-2 DAYS AND\r\nSTRENGTHEN THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nASSOCIATED WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG A TRAJECTORY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER IN THE FIRST PART OF THE\r\nPERIOD BECAUSE OF A FASTER ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...8 KNOTS.   \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 15.9N  80.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.7N  79.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  77.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  75.9W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  74.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N  69.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-11-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 14 1999\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED APPRECIABLY OVERNIGHT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TREND HAS\r\nBEEN THE INVOLVEMENT OF THE CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nALTHOUGH THE COLDEST TOPS...TO -80C...REMAIN NORTH.  HOWEVER...\r\nTWO SHIP OBSERVATIONS..PCBZ AND ELUR3...NEAR THE CENTER SHOW WINDS\r\nOF 12 AND 13 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES \r\nTHE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWHILE SATELLITE FIXES STILL SHOW SOME SCATTER...NOT UNUSUAL FOR\r\nWEAK SYSTEMS USING IR IMAGERY...THE TWO SHIP OBSERVATIONS MENTIONED\r\nABOVE HELP PINPOINT THE CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 095/08 KT.  THERE IS NO CHANGE WITH REGARDS TO THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST AS A STRONG U.S. MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE/LOW...ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT\r\nTHIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS AND RE-ENFORCE THE EXISTING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD MOVE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTRACK DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nUK METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE MODEL.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG\r\nWITH ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY DECREASED VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR THEREBY ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE\r\nSYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 15.9N  79.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.9N  78.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.2N  76.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  74.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N  72.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N  68.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-11-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY BE OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 100/07 AND THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MOSTLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION DEEPENS AND EXTENDS THE WESTERLIES FURTHER SOUTHWARD.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE BUT THERE\r\nHAVE BEEN NO SHIP OR ISLAND REPORTS TO CONFIRM THIS.  AN AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON AND I WILL DELAY UPGRADING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS.  MEANWHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 15.9N  79.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 15.9N  78.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N  76.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.5N  74.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  71.2W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N  66.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-11-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/05.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nCLOSELY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT BRINGS THE CENTER TO NEAR OR\r\nJUST PAST PUERTO RICO IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 1915Z AND\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED REPORTED SO FAR FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS 66 KNOTS AT 1000-1500 FEET FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  BUT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 988 MB SO THE SURFACE\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN 12 HOURS OR LESS...BASED ON THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF AN EYE TYPE FEATURE.  THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 16.4N  78.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  78.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  76.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.6N  74.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  71.2W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N  65.5W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-11-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN NOV 14 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELLED OFF FOR\r\nTHE TIME BEING.  A BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS OBSCURED\r\nTHE EYE ON THE INFRARED IMAGERY.  HOWEVER AN EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF\r\n15-20 N MI WAS EVIDENT ON A RECENT SSM/I PASS OVER THE HURRICANE.\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KNOTS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nPROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATE AROUND 0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nOBVIOUSLY...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS\r\nNOT ANTICIPATED.  THIS AGAIN UNDERSCORES OUR LIMITED ABILITY TO\r\nPREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE.  LENNY IS DEVELOPING A FAIR UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE AND...PRESUMING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT\r\nINCREASE TOO MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.  THIS IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BUT MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE GENERALLY EASTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...7\r\nKNOTS.  LENNY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  CURRENT\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A REINFORCING VORTICITY MAX MOVING OFF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST...AND THE 18Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN SHOWS ADDITIONAL\r\nVORTICITY ENTERING THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH AND AN INCREASED\r\nWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR LENNY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND GFDL\r\nMODELS.  THIS IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 16.1N  78.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.1N  77.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  74.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.8N  72.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N  70.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N  65.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-11-14 19:15:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n215 PM EST SUN NOV 14 1999\r\n\r\nA RECON AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED 66 KNOTS AT 1000 FT ALTITUDE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 992 MB. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS.  IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AS THERE APPEARS TO\r\nBE AN EYE FORMING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS IS ALSO REPORTED\r\nFROM THE AIRCRAFT.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SAME REASONING AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...MOVING TOWARD THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION BEING MOVED FURTHER NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE PROXIMITY TO JAMAICA REQUIRES TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT COUNTRY.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1915Z 16.4N  79.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  78.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  76.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N  74.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  71.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  65.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-11-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON NOV 15 1999\r\n \r\nLENNY IS STRENGTHENING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS FROM AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nDROPPED TO 971 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB WINDS OF 100 KT. AN EYE\r\nAPPEARS INTERMITTENTLY ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 77 KT. BASED\r\nON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE RAISED TO 85 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE. DESPITE THE INTENSIFICATION...THE WIND RADII REMAIN\r\nRATHER SMALL.\r\n \r\nLENNY MOVED EAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE LATEST\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 095/8. A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH DOMINATES\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP LENNY ON A GENERALLY\r\nEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LARGE SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD TURN LENNY MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. THE AMOUNT OF TURN...HOWEVER...IS UNCERTAIN. THE MEAN\r\nPOSITION OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE MODELS IS ABOUT THE SAME\r\nLONGITUDE AS THE HURRICANE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MORE EASTWARD\r\nMOTION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS. ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM MORE SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE POSITIONS AND IS\r\nALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER LENNY...SO FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW LONG\r\nWILL THE CURRENT RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUE? THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A\r\nLEVELING OUT. ALTHOUGH MAJOR NOVEMBER HURRICANES ARE NOT UNHEARD\r\nOF...THEY ARE UNCOMMON ENOUGH THAT I WILL NOT FORECAST LENNY TO\r\nBECOME ONE JUST YET.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 15.4N  77.1W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.4N  76.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.6N  74.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.2N  71.8W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N  69.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N  63.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-11-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON NOV 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/09.  THE REASONING BEHIND THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.  AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE HURRICANE\r\nMOSTLY EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ARE ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nCONTINUED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE\r\nFOR A STRENGTHENING 971-MB HURRICANE AND THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT WELL\r\nDEFINED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED INTO THE\r\nHURRICANE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 15.0N  76.2W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  74.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.6N  72.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 16.4N  69.3W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N  67.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  62.0W    95 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-11-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON NOV 15 1999\r\n \r\nBASED ON A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 095/13.  THIS\r\nIS A LITLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AND THE SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION\r\nCLOSER TO 10 KNOTS.  THE REASONING FOR THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nUNCHANGED.  A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE THE HURRICANE MOSTLY EASTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE FORWARD MOTION MAY SLOW A LITTLE AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE\r\nSHORT WAVE MOVES AWAY WITHOUT TOTALLY PICKING UP THE HURRICANE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AFTER 48 HOURS...OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN FROM 971 TO 981 IN 12 HOURS AND THE\r\nMAXIMUM WIND MEASURED BY RECON IS 73 KNOTS FROM A GPS DROP IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 75 KNOTS ON THIS\r\nBASIS.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 15 KNOTS OF STRENGTHENING IN\r\n36 HOURS.  BUT BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...THE WIND\r\nSPEED WILL BE HELD CONSTANT AT 75 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 14.9N  74.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 14.9N  72.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 15.7N  69.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N  68.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  66.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 20.5N  63.5W    75 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-11-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON NOV 15 1999\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO EYE EVIDENT EITHER ON MICROWAVE OR INFRARED IMAGERY AND\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...EVEN THOUGH IT CONTAINS CONSIDERABLE AND\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION...IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED.  EARLIER RECON\r\nDATA IMPLIED CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING AND CURRENT DVORAK DATA T-\r\nNUMBERS ARE ALSO DOWN FROM WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER TODAY.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS.  WE DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHY LENNY\r\nWEAKENED TODAY...EXCEPT THAT ITS VERY SMALL INNER CORE REGION MAY BE\r\nVERY SENSITIVE TO SUBTLE ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM\r\nTHE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION THIS EVENING SHOW A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFINED TO\r\nA SHALLOWER LAYER...AROUND 200 MB...THAN WE NORMALLY SEE.  BOTH THE\r\nSHIPS AND THE TRIPLY-NESTED GFDL MODEL INDICATE THAT SOME RE-\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...AND THIS IS ALLOWED FOR IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT USING A BLEND OF INFRARED\r\nAND MICROWAVE-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES...INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n080/12.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  LENNY IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  WIND DATA FROM THE G-IV\r\nSUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS WELL.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS SOME\r\nAMPLIFICATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLAND IN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTRACK IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS TO PUERTO RICO IN 24 HOURS...IT IS PRUDENT TO ISSUE HURRICANE\r\nWARNINGS FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME.  THE SLIGHTLY LARGER EXTENT OF\r\n34-KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH SHOWN ON THIS ADVISORY ALSO NECESSITATES\r\nTHE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 15.2N  73.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N  71.1W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.6N  68.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N  67.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  65.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N  62.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-11-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE NOV 16 1999\r\n \r\nHERE WE GO AGAIN! REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE LENNY IS STRENGTHENING WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 971 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB WINDS OF 109 KT. THE PLANE\r\nALSO REPORTED A 45 NM WIDE EYE. ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER ARE -80C TO -85C\r\nAND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AS HIGH AS 102 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/13...ALTHOUGH THE TWO AIRCRAFT FIXES HINT\r\nAT A POSSIBLE FASTER MOTION OF 15-16 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGED FROM 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE. LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RIDGE SHOULD BUILD\r\nEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WHICH SHOULD TURN LENNY TO A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ALL MODEL FORECASTS ARE\r\nCLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND/OR THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING IN HOW FAST LENNY MOVES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT IS\r\nNOTABLE THAT IF LENNY DOES NOT TURN SOON...THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO\r\nBE ADJUSTED EASTWARD...INCREASING THE THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\nAFTER PASSAGE THROUGH THE ISLANDS...THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nBUILD A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NORTH OF LENNY WHICH COULD SLOW THE SYSTEM\r\nDOWN. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE FIRST PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. WITH THE COLD\r\nTOPS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LENNY\r\nCOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEN LAST NIGHT STOPPED RATHER ABRUPTLY DURING\r\nTHE DAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nEXTREMES AND TAKES LENNY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AT 95 KT. THINGS ARE\r\nSIMPLER AFTER PASSAGE THROUGH THE ISLANDS...AS A COMBINATION OF\r\nCOOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN THE\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 15.2N  71.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 15.7N  69.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N  67.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 18.7N  65.8W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N  64.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N  61.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-11-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE NOV 16 1999\r\n\r\nLENNY REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND CONSEQUENTLY IS\r\nSTILL MOVING TOWARD THE EAST ABOUT 14 KNOTS.  A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nAMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE PROVIDING A PATTERN WHICH WOULD\r\nFAVOR A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.  IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION\r\nINDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR\r\nPUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS MUST CONTINUE BECAUSE RELIABLE\r\nUK...GFDL AND GFDN MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE OVER PUERTO RICO.  \r\n\r\nA NOAA P3 PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING AND HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 973 MB WITH WINDS OF 96 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. SINCE THE\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR AND THERE IS NO SHEAR IN THE NEAR FUTURE...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOUR OR SO...AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 15.3N  69.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 16.3N  67.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.1N  65.3W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N  62.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  61.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N  56.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-11-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 16 1999\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE PLANES AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT LENNY\r\nIS MOVING ABOUT 070/15 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS WOULD\r\nRESULT ON A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND THEN NORTHEAST AROUND\r\nTHE DEVELOPING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH SOME SUGGESTING A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN FACT...THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL\r\nFORECASTS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A SLOW NORTHEAST TO NORTH TRACK\r\nOVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.   IF THIS MATERIALIZES...IT\r\nCOULD RESULT IN EVEN WORSE CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA UNDER WARNING. \r\nALL PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETED SOON AGAINST THIS DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE.  \r\n\r\nSINCE THE HURRICANE IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...MARINE INTERESTS\r\nSHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH\r\nAND WEST FACING UNPROTECTED HARBORS.  KLAUS IN NOVEMBER 1984\r\nPRODUCED CONSIDERABLE MARINE DAMAGE TO THIS AREA AND IT WAS ONLY A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THIS IS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE\r\nWITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES...AN INTERMITTENT EYE AND GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW.  DROPSONDES MEASURED 965 MB PRESSURE IN THE EYE...MEAN\r\nBOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 107 KNOTS...AND MEASURED 96 KNOTS AT THE\r\nSURFACE.  THE EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE FROM 700 MB WAS 960 MB WITH PEAK\r\nWINDS OF 112 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEN ADJUSTED TO 100 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS MAKES LENNY A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR\r\nSIMPSON SCALE...THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR OR SO.\r\n \r\nA CIRCULAR EYE IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR ON SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 15.8N  68.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N  66.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 18.8N  64.3W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N  62.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  60.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 26.0N  56.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-11-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE NOV 16 1999\r\n \r\nA FEW HOURS AGO...A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 126 KNOTS\r\nAT 907 MB IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL.  THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND\r\nWAS 101 KNOTS.  A CENTER FIX BY THE NEW WC-130 MODEL J HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB AT 0029Z...\r\nINDICATING A LITTLE MORE DEEPENING.  THE PRESENTATION ON THE SAN\r\nJUAN WSR-88D RADAR IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH A 25 N MI\r\nDIAMETER EYE SURROUNDED BY A CLOSED WALL.  THE RADAR ALSO MEASURED\r\nCLOUD TOPS TO 60000 FEET IN AN OUTER RAINBAND ABOUT 90 N MI SOUTH OF\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO.  THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY\r\nOF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF LENNY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nSINCE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMERELY HOLDS THE WINDS STEADY BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nDUE TO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD TURN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 070/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nEAST ON ACCOUNT OF THE CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  MOST OF THE MODELS STILL INDICATE A MORE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE.  SINCE\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DE-AMPLIFY\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nDANGEROUS WINDS EXTEND MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER THAN TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED\r\nEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ANTIGUA...BARBUDA AND MONTSERRAT.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 16.2N  67.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N  65.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.9N  63.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 20.4N  61.3W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  60.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  58.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-11-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED NOV 17 1999\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nLENNY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO\r\n950 MB WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT. A SOUTHEAST EYEWALL DROPSONDE HAD 132 KT WINDS AT 924 MB\r\nAND 110 KT JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127\r\nKT...115 KT...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.\r\nBASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 110 KT ON THIS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nLENNY MAY BE STARTING ITS NORTHEASTWARD TURN. THE 12 HOUR AND\r\nADVISORY MOTION IS 065/12...AND A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS MORE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A RIDGE IS\r\nSTARTING TO DEVELOP EAST OF LENNY...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY NUDGE\r\nLENNY ONTO A NORTHEAST TRACK. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS SLOW LENNY BEFORE THE STORM\r\nREACHES THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE AVN...UKMET...AND HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE...SLOWING THE STORM AFTER IT MOVES\r\nINTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER\r\nSOLUTION...AS THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON LENNY SHOULD STALL BEFORE\r\nREACHING THE ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nLENNY CONTINUES TO HAVE GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE\r\nWEST...ALONG WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE TODAY. AFTER THE HURRICANE PASSES THROUGH THE\r\nISLANDS...A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 16.7N  66.0W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.7N  64.4W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.2N  62.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 20.6N  60.8W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N  59.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 23.5N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-11-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED NOV 17 1999\r\n \r\nLENNY IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR\r\n/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE FIFTH OF THE SEASON.  THIS IS\r\nBASED ON A DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL WHICH MEASURED MEAN BOUNDARY\r\nLAYER WINDS OF 118 KNOTS...REPORTS FROM A PLANE OF A MAXIMUM WIND OF\r\n134 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND A MINIMUM MEASURED PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A\r\nLATER EXTRAPOLATED 942 MB.  SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 6.0 AND\r\n6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH A PEAK 7.0 RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER. \r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS LENNY MOVES\r\nINTO A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nLENNY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 055/10.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UNLIKELY SOLUTION OF\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH TURNS LENNY NORTHWARD TODAY...THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nMODELS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...TAKING\r\nLENNY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nISLANDS.  THIS MOTION WAS EXPECTED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nDEVELOPING A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE LENNY.  IN SUMMARY...THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE PATH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE. \r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.  \r\n \r\nIF THE NORTHEASTWARD TREND CONTINUES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND\r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...THE WARNINGS FOR\r\nMAINLAND PUERTO RICO..BUT NOT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDOWNGRADED.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 17.1N  65.1W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 17.8N  64.0W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N  62.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 20.3N  61.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 22.0N  59.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-11-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED NOV 17 1999\r\n \r\nLENNY CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK ABOUT 8\r\nKNOTS.  BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS CONTROLLING THE PATH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...THIS GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST THE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS AND PREVIOUS FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nTHE SIGNIFICANT EVENT OF THE DAY IS THE UNEXPECTED INTENSIFICATION\r\nOF LENNY...INDICATING THAT THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING\r\nRAPID INTENSITY CHANGES.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700\r\nMB HAS FALLEN TO 927 MB WHILE A DROP MEASURED 934 MB.  THE \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 149 KNOTS.  THE MEAN BOUNDARY\r\nLAYER WINDS FROM DROPSONDES ARE 155 KNOTS AND PEAK WINDS REACHED 180\r\nKNOTS AT THE 891-MB LEVEL A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.  BASED ON THAT\r\nINFORMATION...INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED TO 130 KNOTS.\r\nLENNY IS VERY CLOSE TO BEING A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT STAY WITH SUCH\r\nSTRENGTH FOR A LONG TIME...THEREFORE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS LENNY MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED EASTWARD MOTION...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR\r\nMAINLAND PUERTO RICO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nBUT NOT FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 17.6N  64.3W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 18.4N  63.5W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 19.7N  62.3W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N  61.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 22.5N  60.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-11-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED NOV 17 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION PARAGRAPH 1...\r\n \r\nTHE LAST SEVERAL FIXES FROM U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT LENNY HAS BEEN DRIFTING\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD. IN FACT...THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING\r\nTHE LAST TWO HOURS.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\r\nDOPPLER RADAR DATA OUT OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS QUASI-STATIONARY.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DATA RELAYED FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 939 MB...UP 5 MB OVER THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FOUND ON THE MOST\r\nRECENT PASSES IS 128 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 125 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR DATA FROM THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SHOWS THAT\r\nLENNY IS IN A COL POINT BETWEEN THE TWO MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGHS. A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE HURRICANE AND ALLOW THE GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION TO RESUME.\r\nMOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK AGREES ON A GENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED\r\nON THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASING HOSTILE\r\nUPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...IF LENNY STAYS QUASI-STATIONARY\r\nLONG ENOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nAS A RESULT OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION...TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nHAVE BEEN RETAINED FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHILE\r\nHURRICANE WARNING REMAIN POSTED FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE\r\nU.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION WERE USED TO ADJUST\r\nTHE WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 17.7N  64.1W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 18.4N  63.4W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 19.4N  62.5W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 20.6N  61.4W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 22.0N  60.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-11-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU NOV 18 1999\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LENNY IS DRIFTING EAST..080/03. WHILE\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 947 MB...700 MB WINDS HAVE BEEN AS\r\nHIGH AS 145 KT. AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE INDICATED 132 KT NEAR THE\r\nSURFACE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 125 KT.\r\n \r\nLENNY IS CURRENT LOCATED BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND A BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL TO THE NORTH...WHICH MAY BE\r\nCAUSING THE CURRENT SLOWER MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME QUITE\r\nDIVERSE...FROM THE UKMET SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT TO THE BAMD\r\nMOVING THE STORM EASTWARD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MAY COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO LENNY TO\r\nNUDGE IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS\r\nAND SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO WOULD BE VERY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nLENNY IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND IS SOUTH OF THE STRONG UPPER\r\nLEVEL WESTERLIES. THEREFORE...ANY FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW.\r\nTHE AVN AND UKMET ARE FORECASTING STRONG WESTERLIES TO CONTINUE\r\nNORTH OF 20N. IF THE FORECAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OCCURS...THE\r\nSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 36 HOURS ALONG WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE IN ANTICIPATION OF THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE INCREASING THE\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT THERE.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nAS A RESULT OF THE SLOW MOTION...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN\r\nEFFECT FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WHILE HURRICANE\r\nWARNING REMAIN POSTED FOR CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND THE U.S. AND\r\nBRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 17.8N  63.6W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 17.9N  63.3W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 18.4N  62.6W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 19.1N  61.9W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 20.0N  61.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-11-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU NOV 18 1999\r\n \r\nSAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATES THAT LENNY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nMOTION IS INDICATED THROUGH THAT PERIOD.  WV IMAGES SHOW AN EASTWARD\r\nMOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR\r\nTHE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FORCING LENNY TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nRELIABLE AND GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD TRACK.  ON THE UK MODEL...THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSES THE\r\nHURRICANE...KEEPING LENNY SOUTH OF 25 DEGREES NORTH FOR AT LEAST 3\r\nOR 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS NOT LONGER VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES BUT IT IS WELL\r\nDEFINED ON RADAR. BECAUSE BOTH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING\r\nAND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAT YESTERDAY...INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS 115 KNOTS. THERE IS NO SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND PERHAPS ONLY\r\nUPWELLING IS CAUSING WEAKENING AT THIS TIME. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER\r\n...WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS LENNY MOVES TOWARD A LESS\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.  IF THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE\r\nPROPERLY ESTABLISHED...A PARAMETER I DO NOT KNOW TO FORECAST...THE\r\nHURRICANE COULD OVERCOME THE SHEARING EFFECTS AND REMAIN STRONG A\r\nLITTLE BIT LONGER.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 17.8N  63.6W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N  63.5W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N  62.5W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 19.3N  61.8W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 20.0N  61.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-11-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU NOV 18 1999\r\n\r\nRADAR...RECONNAISSANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nEYEWALL OF LENNY IS OVER ST. MAARTEN.   BECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ONLY A\r\nVERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IS INDICATED\r\nTHROUGH THAT PERIOD.  THIS MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE OVER ST. MAARTEN AND ADJACENT ISLANDS FOR SEVERAL MORE\r\nHOURS.  FORTUNATELY...RECON DATA INDICATE THAT LENNY IS NOT AS\r\nSTRONG AS IT WAS 24 HOUR AGO.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO 105 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 966 MB.\r\nHOWEVER...LENNY IS STILL A STRONG HURRICANE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED THEREAFTER...AS LENNY MOVES TOWARD A LESS FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.  IF THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE\r\nPROPERLY ESTABLISHED...THE HURRICANE COULD OVERCOME THE SHEARING\r\nEFFECTS AND REMAIN STRONG A LITTLE BIT LONGER. \r\n\r\nWV IMAGES SHOW AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS FEATURE MAY PRODUCE AN INCREASE IN\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...FORCING LENNY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS THE\r\nGENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK AND GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE PUERTO RICO\r\nRADAR...ITS EYE PRESENTATION IS POORLY DEFINED. THEREFORE...\r\nADVISORIES WILL NOW BE ISSUED EVERY 3 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 18.1N  63.1W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 18.5N  62.5W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N  61.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.7N  60.3W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N  59.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  57.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-11-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU NOV 18 1999\r\n \r\nINFORMATION FROM DUTCH ST. MAARTEN THIS EVENING INCLUDES AN\r\nUNOFFICIAL REPORT OF 100 MPH FROM A SHIP IN SIMSON BAY...AND\r\nMULTIPLE REPORTS OF CALM WINDS...INDICATING THAT A PORTION OF THE\r\nEYE PASSED OVER THE ISLAND.  MORE RECENTLY THE WIND HAS BEGUN TO\r\nPICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT AT SPEEDS THAT SUGGEST THEY ARE NOT\r\nYET FULLY IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL...AS THE CALM IS NOW BEING\r\nREPORTED IN ANGUILLA.  THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS SHOW\r\nTHAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RISE...UP 23 MB IN TWELVE\r\nHOURS...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS CONTINUE TO FALL.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED 107 KT AND ON THIS BASIS THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 95 KT.  THIS BRINGS LENNY DOWN TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.\r\n\r\nLENNY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nWIDELY DIVERGENT THIS EVENING...WITH AN IMPORTANT DISAGREEMENT\r\nBETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE AVN.  BOTH MODELS INITIALIZE A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  WHILE THE AVN BRINGS A PIECE OF\r\nTHIS TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN AN ACCELERATION OF LENNY\r\nAWAY FROM THE ISLANDS...THE UKMET KEEPS THE TROUGH AWAY FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER...AND LESS EASTWARD MOTION\r\nOVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  IN ADDITION...THE AVN ANALYZES ANOTHER\r\nVORTEX ABOUT 400 NM NORTHEAST OF LENNY WHICH APPEARS TO CONTRIBUTE\r\nTO THE ACCELERATION.  INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET HAS BEEN MUCH CLOSER\r\nTO THE ACTUAL TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS THAN THE AVN-BASED\r\nGUIDANCE.  IN VIEW OF THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE UKMET.  \r\n\r\nLENNY HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN SPITE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW HOWEVER.  PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THE\r\nSAME PATCH OF WATER MAY ALSO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN THE WEAKENING. \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS RAPID WEAKENING TO NEAR\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE\r\nAVN FORECAST SHEAR WHICH MAY NOT VERIFY.  I AM FORECASTING CONTINUED\r\nSLOW WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 18.2N  63.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 18.3N  62.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.7N  62.2W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N  61.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  60.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  58.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-11-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI NOV 19 1999\r\n \r\nDATA FROM WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN SAN JUAN...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN ST. MAARTEN INDICATE\r\nTHE EYE OF LENNY DRIFTED ERRATICALLY SOUTHEAST EARLIER TONIGHT. IT\r\nNOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY. ST. MAARTEN IS VERY NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nEYEWALL...AS THE REPORTED WINDS HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN SUSTAINED\r\nHURRICANE FORCE AND LESS THAN 20 KT. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 982 MB ALONG WITH 86 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. AN\r\nEYEWALL DROPSONDE INDICATES 91 KT WINDS AT 951 MB. BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE\r\nA LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nLENNY APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGES...AND THERE\r\nAPPARENTLY IS A LOW LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE. A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA APPEARS WEAK...AND THEREFORE MAY\r\nNOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE MOTION AS THE AVN MODEL OR AVN-BASED\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE SLOWER\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTIONS THAN THE AVN...PERHAPS DUE TO THE WEAKNESS OF\r\nTHE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE...SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nLENNY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN SPITE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE HINTS OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.  PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO\r\nTHE SAME PATCH OF WATER MAY ALSO BE PLAYING A ROLE IN THE WEAKENING.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST RAPID WEAKENING TO NEAR\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...PARTLY DUE TO INCREASED\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE\r\nWEAKENING...DELAYING RAPID WEAKENING UNTIL LENNY MOVES INTO THE\r\nSTRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF 20N.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 18.1N  62.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.2N  62.4W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N  61.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N  61.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N  60.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N  58.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lenny","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-11-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI NOV 19 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LENNY\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY AND THE EYE IS MEANDERING BETWEEN ST.\r\nMAARTEN AND ANGUILLA.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nSTILL WEAK.  HOWEVER...A SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVES OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC COULD FINALLY PROVIDE ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nTO STEER LENNY AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE VERY SLOW SO STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD CONTINUE IN THE\r\nAREA FOR AT LEAST 12 MORE HOURS.  MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED THEIR TUNE\r\nAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A FASTER NORTHEAST TRACK\r\nTHAT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET.  ENOUGH HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID ABOUT\r\nMODEL OUTPUT.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING SINCE YESTERDAY BUT THE HURRICANE\r\nSTILL HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WEAKENING AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO\r\nA LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT ALL THE\r\nFACTORS ARE AGAINST STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL\r\nINDICATE THAT LENNY COULD REINTENSIFY SOME.  TIME WILL TELL. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 18.0N  62.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  62.3W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  61.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N  60.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N  59.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N  57.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-11-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI NOV 19 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LENNY IS WEAKENING FAST. THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME\r\nSHEARING BUT AT THE CIRRUS LEVEL.....IR IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE\r\nOUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE FAIR.  THE WEAKENING HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WHICH MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 994 MB.  LENNY IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS\r\nTIME. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT ALL THE FACTORS ARE AGAINST\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  SO...A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS LENNY\r\nMOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER....I WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISED IF IT RESTRENGTHENS WHILE MOVING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  \r\n \r\nLENNY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST 6 TO\r\n12 HOURS...WHILE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION  BECAME BROAD AND POORLY\r\nDEFINED.  A SERIES OF EASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVES OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC COULD FINALLY PROVIDE ENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO STEER\r\nLENNY AWAY FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  MODELS INSIST ON TAKING LENNY TOWARD THE  \r\nNORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...CAPRICIOUS LENNY CONTINUES SLOWLY EASTWARD.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 17.5N  62.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N  61.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N  60.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  58.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N  56.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-11-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI NOV 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WIND AT\r\nCOOLIDGE AIRPORT ON ANTIGUA HAS SHIFTED FROM 220/10 TO 100/08 DURING\r\nTHE PAST HOUR WHICH INDICATES THAT THE CENTER PASSED VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHIS LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/03.  THE GUIDANCE\r\n...WHICH IS STILL BASED ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS IS DIVERGENT.  THE\r\nNOGAPS SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET SHOWS A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THE AVIATION IS DUE NORTHWARD AT\r\nABOUT 5 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWING A SLOW EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nFOR 72 HOURS.  BUT THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF MOTION COULD BE QUITE SLOW\r\nAND IT COULD BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THE HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS COME\r\nTO AN END OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER RATHER CLOSE TO GUADELOPE\r\n...BUT THE WEATHER IS NOT CONCENTRATED AROUND THE CENTER AND THE\r\nWEATHER AT GUADELOUPE AND FURTHER SOUTH IS NOT LIKELY TO GET ANY\r\nWORSE THAN IT HAS BEEN.\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A TREMENDOUS BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS COULD\r\nDELAY THE ONGOING WEAKENING TREND AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN WEAKENING LENNY THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 17.1N  61.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N  61.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.1N  60.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N  59.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N  58.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N  56.5W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-11-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT NOV 20 1999\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING...THE LAST WE WILL HAVE ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM...SHOW THAT LENNY IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000 MB\r\nFROM TWO DROPSONDES...BOTH GUADELOUPE AND ANTIGUA...WELL TO THE\r\nWEST...HAVE REPORTED LOWER PRESSURES.  WINDS FROM THE LAST EYE DROP\r\nSUGGEST SIGNIFICANT LOW TO MID LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR AND REQUIRE THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER TO BE A BIT SOUTH OF THE RECON FIX LOCATION.  THE\r\nONLY STRONG WINDS REPORTED AT THE 700 MB LEVEL WERE IN CONVECTION\r\nWELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THESE WINDS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE.  THE MOST RECENT INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLENNY IS FINALLY MAKING GOOD PROGRESS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 115/6.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS LENNY FROM ITS\r\nCURRENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST\r\nIMMEDIATELY IF NOT SOONER.  I AM A LITTLE DOUBTFUL OF THIS...GIVEN\r\nTHE RECENT TRACK OF THE STORM...AN UNCONVINCING INITIALIZATION IN\r\nTHE AVN...AND THE POOR VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE VORTEX. \r\nNONETHELESS...I HAVE MADE ONLY A MODEST EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nWITH LENNY MOVING OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...AND ALL SIGNIFICANT WEATHER\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...ALL REMAINING WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED WITH\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD EXERCISE\r\nDUE CAUTION UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 16.9N  60.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N  58.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.2N  57.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N  56.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N  54.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-11-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT NOV 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE SHEARED TROPICAL STORM IS LARGE AND\r\nDIFFUSE AND COULD BE LOCATED ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 TO 80 N MI OF THE\r\nGIVEN INITIAL POSITION.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WITH\r\nA WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE STORM TO\r\nSOUTH AMERICA. A SHIP LOCATED IN THE AREA OF CONVECTION REPORTED\r\n35-KNOT WINDS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED AS LENNY MOVES\r\nTOWARD AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 110/6...A TRACK WHICH HAS NOT\r\nBEEN FORECAST BY ANY MODEL SO FAR.  BECAUSE UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW\r\nTHAT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY 500-MB FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN CARIBBEAN...A CONTINUED GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION OF THE STORM\r\nIS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...I HAVE NO CHOICE\r\nBUT FORECAST A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY TRACK\r\nMODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 16.0N  59.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.7N  58.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N  57.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N  56.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N  55.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 24.5N  52.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-11-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT NOV 20 1999\r\n \r\nFRENCH BUOY...41100...REPORTED 30-KNOT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A\r\nPRESSURE OF 1000 MB WHILE THE ISLANDS ARE REPORTING NORTHWEST AND\r\nWESTERLY WINDS.  THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER MUST THEN BE SOMEWHERE\r\nBETWEEN THE BUOY AND DOMINICA.  SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION AND\r\nTHAT THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nTHE DIFFUSE CENTER OF CAPRICIOUS LENNY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS...AGAINST ALL MODELS...WHICH IN\r\nFACT ARE STILL INSISTING ON TAKING LENNY NORTHEASTWARD.   IN THIS\r\nPARTICULAR CASE...MODELS ARE PRACTICALLY USELESS...AND THE SITUATION\r\nIS SIMILAR TO MITCH IN 1998 WHEN ALL MODELS TOOK MITCH NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND NORTHWARD BUT THE HURRICANE MOVED SOUTH.  FORTUNATELY...LENNY IS\r\nA RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND OBVIOUSLY\r\nCONTAMINATED BY TRACK MODELS BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 15.6N  59.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N  58.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N  56.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N  54.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N  51.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lenny","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-11-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT NOV 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  USING\r\nISLAND...SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...AND CONTINUITY...GIVES AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 125/07...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THERE MAY NO\r\nLONGER BE A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW A MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  USING THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST MOVES THE\r\nTRACK WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   ALSO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nLOCATION AND MOTION AND FOR THE PERSISTANT NORTH BIAS THAT ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DISPLAYED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nMAYBE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE NOT ABLE TO MOVE A SLOW MOVING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SOUTHWARD IN THE DEEP TROPICS??\r\n \r\nAN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  DVORAK INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 30 TO 55\r\nKNOTS BUT THE SHIPS AND BUOYS HAVE NOT REPORTED A WIND SPEED AS\r\nHIGH AS 35 KNOTS SINCE 12Z.  SO THE WIND IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS AND\r\nCONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 15.5N  58.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.1N  57.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.6N  56.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N  54.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 18.3N  53.2W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N  50.5W    30 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lenny","Adv":32,"Date":"1999-11-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 21 1999\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN 21 HOURS SINCE THE LAST SURFACE REPORT OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS...AND THERE ARE NEITHER SCATTEROMETER NOR LOW-CLOUD\r\nWINDS AT THIS THRESHHOLD.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW OVER 100 MILES\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 30 TO 45 KT...WITH T NUMBERS OF 25-30 KT.  THEREFORE LENNY IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nBECOMING ELONGATED IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST STAGE OF TERMINAL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE 6Z WIND FROM BUOY 41100 WAS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH\r\nINDICATES THAT LENNY HAS FINALLY BEGUN ITS LONG-FORECAST LEFT TURN.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/8.  THE MULTI-SPECTRAL NIGHT IR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL VORTEX NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.  THIS IS\r\nPRESUMBABLY THE VORTEX THE AVN HAS BEEN ANALYZING FOR THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  LENNY...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THIS VORTEX BEFORE MODESTLY ACCELERATING\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE NEW HEADING OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 16.6N  57.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N  56.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.7N  55.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 20.2N  53.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N  52.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 24.0N  46.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lenny","Adv":33,"Date":"1999-11-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 21 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LENNY IS RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKENING AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED LOW-CLOUD CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION WITH A CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND TO THE EAST.  FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND LENNY WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE IN 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPECTED NORTHEAST TRACK HAS FINALLY MATERIALIZED. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING 045/12 AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS\r\nINDICATED BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 17.6N  56.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N  55.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N  53.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  51.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 23.5N  47.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  40.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lenny","Adv":34,"Date":"1999-11-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LENNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 21 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LENNY CONTINUES TO\r\nWEAKEN AND IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS OR A BROAD AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE  WITH A FEW SQUALLS TO THE EAST.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nAWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN.  THE LOW COULD DISSIPATE OR BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW  AS INDICATED BY THE UK MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS UNEXPECTED\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS.  FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN\r\nROUTINE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 18.3N  56.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N  55.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N  52.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-06-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE NIGHT...AS A CONVECTIVE BAND WITH\r\nTOPS TO -85C FORMS NEAR AND WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. LATEST\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0. THUS...\r\nADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES ARE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFIXES...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n270/07. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER MEXICO. THE AVN\r\nAND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL PERSIST...AND PERHAPS EVEN DRIFT\r\nWEST...THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS START A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK A LITTLE TOO\r\nSOON IF THE CURRENT MOTION IS CORRECT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LBAR.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY UPPER\r\nLEVEL SHEAR. THE AVN AND NOGAPS INDICATE THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS. SHIPS AND SHIFOR BOTH BRING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...SHIPS DOING SO DESPITE\r\nPERSISTENT 20 TO 25 KT SHEAR VALUES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS FAST AS SHIPS AND SHIFOR. IT IS NOTABLE\r\nTHAT THE 00Z GFDL RUN DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION AT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE SO THAT\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\nHOWEVER...BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE ONTO\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST FROM ACAPULCO EASTWARD...POSSIBLY PRODUCING FLASH\r\nFLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 13.0N  98.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 13.0N  99.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 13.4N 101.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 13.9N 103.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 110.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-06-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE\r\nTHIS MORNING.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE  60 MILES\r\nAPART...SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 13 AND 14 NORTH...WHILE SSMI IMAGERY FROM\r\nNRL/MONTEREY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE CLOSER TO 12 DEGREES\r\nNORTH.  UNTIL WE HAVE MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY TODAY WE ARE GUIDED BY\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n285/9.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL MAKE LANDFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS MAY\r\nAFFECT COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...35 KT...WHILE AIR\r\nFORCE WEATHER AGENCY HAS 1.5.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE...HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.  THERE IS SOME EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT APPEARS TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE TD TO\r\n65 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 13.4N  99.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 13.8N 100.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.3N 102.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 14.9N 104.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N 107.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-06-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE HAS RELAXED TODAY...WITH OUTFLOW\r\nDEVELOPING IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nSSM/I WINDS SPEED INFORMATION INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nHAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY DENSE OVERCAST ALL\r\nDAY...BUT SSM/I IMAGERY AND A FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY\r\nARE SHOWING THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN REORGANIZING NORTH OF OUR\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\nBUT OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE AVN MODEL INITIAL ANALYSIS HAS\r\nA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST OF ADRIAN WHICH PROBABLY DOES NOT\r\nEXIST.  THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE STORM VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST...MAY BE REACTING TO THIS VORTEX.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.  ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ADRIAN WILL MAKE\r\nLANDFALL...BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SQUALLS MAY AFFECT COASTAL\r\nSECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRING ADRIAN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nIN 48 HOURS...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. \r\n\r\nFRANKLIN/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 14.5N 101.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 102.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 15.6N 104.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.3N 106.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N 108.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-06-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED TONIGHT WITH SAB AND TAFB POSITION\r\nESTIMATES BEING ABOUT 50 NMI APART.  USING THE TAFB POSITION GIVES\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/11 WHILE THE SAB POSITION GIVES 290/15.\r\nTHE TAFB POSITION AND 290/11 IS THE OFFICIAL CHOICE ALTHOUGH THIS IS\r\nARBITRARY.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A BOGUS LOW\r\nJUST WEST OF THE STORM.  THIS APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE GFDL MODEL\r\nTO MOVE THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD WHILE ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nSHOWS A RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM...THE GFDL\r\nSOLUTION IS REJECTED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOLLOWING THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS\r\nKEEPS THE TRACK OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 3.5 FROM\r\nSAB...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AND WHAT WAS A LARGE CDO FEATURE HAS FRAGMENTED INTO\r\nA RATHER CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  HOWEVER A SMALL CDO FEATURE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE GROWING AGAIN DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO.  THEREFORE\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO ONLY 45 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nFORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 75 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING AS ADRIAN APPROACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nSOME OUTER BANDS ARE PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND PRESUMABLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND THIS COULD CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 14.7N 102.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.3N 103.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 105.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 106.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-06-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT.\r\n \r\nSAB AND TAFB POSITIONS ARE MUCH CLOSER THEN PREVIOUS AND FIT WELL\r\nWITH EXTRAPOLATED AIR FORCE GLOBAL POSITIONS.  INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n290/12.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A BOGUS LOW JUST WEST OF THE\r\nSTORM AS IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  THIS AGAIN CAUSES THE GFDL MODEL TO\r\nMOVE THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD WHILE ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION.  THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nFOLLOWING THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS KEEPS THE TRACK OFFSHORE\r\nOF THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AGAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 3.5 FROM\r\nSAB...THE LARGE CDO FEATURE HAS RETURNED WITH COLD CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHEN EARLIER.  THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. \r\nTHE FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO 80 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED\r\nBY SLIGHT WEAKENING AS ADRIAN APPROACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nSOME OUTER BANDS ARE PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND\r\nMUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 15.3N 103.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 105.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N 107.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 110.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-06-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE TRACK REMAINS\r\nON A 290 DEGREE HEADING AT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED OF 14 KNOTS. \r\nTHERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  ALL BUT THE\r\nGFDL SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...EXCEPT THE BAM MODELS WHICH ACQUIRE A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nAFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO TURN THE STORM\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL AGAIN HAS A RIDGE PERSISTING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE STORM AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION ALTHOUGH IT IS A BIT SPREAD\r\nOUT AND NOT TOO SYMMETRIC.  HOWEVER THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWS A\r\nNICE CDO FEATURE AND A HINT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE WHICH COULD BE MY\r\nIMAGINATION.  IN ANY CASE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.5 T\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC AND THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASE TO\r\n55 KNOTS.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LIMITING\r\nFACTOR...BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND ON CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED\r\nWINDS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES THE WIND SPEED TO 80\r\nKNOTS IN 36 HOURS...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nAGAIN...THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO WHICH SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nSTORM CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 15.8N 105.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 107.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.4N 109.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 18.3N 114.3W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-06-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE 12Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AS COMPARED TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS RUN...EXCEPT THAT THE GFDL MODEL HAS BACKED OFF\r\nSLIGHTLY ON ITS NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SLIGHT\r\nDECELERATION.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THERE IS A SHIP FNCM LOCATED 35 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER AT 18Z AND MOVING SOUTHWARD.  IT REPORTED ONLY 27 KNOTS AND 9\r\nFT SEAS.  IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SHIP IS TRYING TO PENETRATE THE CENTER\r\nOF THE STORM.  THIS SHIP IS A REASON FOR KEEPING ADRIAN JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY WITH 60 KNOTS FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE\r\nFORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 80 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nWEAKENING WHEN COLD SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND AND SEAS RADII IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ARE REDUCED BASED\r\nON THE ABOVE MENTIONED SHIP REPORT.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nBUT SHOULD BE MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 16.4N 106.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.1N 108.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 112.9W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.9N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 19.4N 117.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-06-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 1999\r\n\r\nADRIAN HAS BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 1999 EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES.  ADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST AND A FEW BANDING FEATURES WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nCONTINUES TO BE FAIR.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER THAN NORMAL WATERS AND WITHIN AN AREA OF LARGE\r\nSCALE SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIFOR AND\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/13 AND THIS TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nAS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODELS\r\nDIVERGE INDICATING SLOW...FAST...NORTHWEST... AND SOUTHWEST TRACKS.\r\nTHE MODELS WHICH DEPEND ON THE MEAN FLOW EXTRACTED FROM THE AVN ARE\r\nLESS RELIABLE AT THIS TIME BECAUSE THE AVN IS INITIALIZING A STRONG-\r\nNON EXISTENT VORTEX TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ADRIAN.  CONSEQUENTLY...A\r\nNON-REALISTIC STEERING FLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS\r\nPRODUCED.  HOWEVER...THIS LEFT BIAS IS LESS PRONOUNCED TONIGHT THAN\r\nIN PREVIOUS RUNS.      \r\n\r\nSHIP FNCM HAS CROSSED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADRIAN DURING THE\r\nDAY.  LATEST OBSERVATION INDICATED WEST WINDS OF 35 KNOTS AND RISING\r\nPRESSURE. WE WOULD LIKE TO OBTAIN THE LOG FROM THAT SHIP TO DOCUMENT\r\nITS PATH NEAR ADRIAN.\r\n \r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 16.9N 107.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 111.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-06-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999\r\n \r\nADRIAN CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED. TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nT4.5 WHILE SAB REMAINS AT T4.0.  THEREFORE...THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED\r\nIS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS.  SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT ADRIAN WILL REACH ITS\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE EFFECTS OF COOLER\r\nSSTS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/13 AND THIS TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nAS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nAGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE WITH BAMS AND BAMM RAPIDLY MOVING OFF TO\r\nTHE WEST AND LBAR RAPIDLY OFF TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. REMAINING\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT VARYING SPEEDS.  GFDL MOVES\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST BUT SLOWS TO A SNAILS PACE IN 48 TO 72\r\nHOUR TIME PERIODS.  IT APPEARS GFDL IS STILL FEELING EFFECTS OF\r\nBOGUS LOW IN THE INITIAL ANALYSIS.  HOW GOES IT ANALYSES OF THE\r\nTRACK FORECASTS FOR THE VARIOUS MODELS SUGGESTS A LEFT BIAS IN MANY\r\nOF THE MODELS. LBAR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS BETTER THAN MOST. \r\nTHUS...OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO LBAR TRACK BUT DOES\r\nNOT INCLUDE LBARS SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 17.7N 108.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.6N 110.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N 113.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 117.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N 120.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-06-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS A\r\nBREAK BETWEEN 120-125 DEGREES WEST AND THE FORCAST IS FOR A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE INITIAL HEADING WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION. SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  IT IS GETTING A LITTLE REPETITIVE TO POINT OUT THAT THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO TO MISPLACE THE CENTER ON ITS\r\nINITIALIZATION.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ARE\r\nOKAY.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY T NUMBERS ARE 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC AND\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS SHOULD END\r\nSHORTLY FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 17.9N 109.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.6N 111.1W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.3N 114.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 116.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-06-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN HAS\r\nA BREAK BETWEEN 120-125 DEGREES WEST AND THE FORECAST IS FOR A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE INITIAL HEADING WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.\r\nONCE AGAIN THE INITIALIZATION OF THE AVIATION MODEL IS SUSPICIOUS \r\nIN THE VICINITY OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nAN EYE HAS FORMED EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE A BIT WARM AND THIS\r\nBRINGS THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE UP TO 85 KNOTS.  COOLER SSTS\r\nARE JUST AHEAD SO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS SHOULD END SHORTLY\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 18.3N 110.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.9N 111.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.4N 115.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 116.7W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N 118.3W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-06-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 1999\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF ADRIAN IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nEVENING.  MOREOVER...THE EXTEND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...\r\nAND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  THE CYCLONE IS NOT AS SYMMETRICAL\r\nAS IT WAS EARLIER WITH CURRENT GOES-10 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT ADRIAN IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nANALYSIS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN COOPERATIVE INSTITUTE FOR\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL SATELLITE STUDIES...CIMSS. SST DATA SHOWS THAT ADRIAN\r\nIS VERY NEAR THE 25C ISOTHERM.  THUS...ADRIAN HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND\r\nIS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIDO AS ADRIAN ENCOUNTERS\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...NEAR 21-22C BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ADRIAN HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AND HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT OVER THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/8 KT.  THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO \r\nSTEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL \r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH P91E AND CLIPER.   \r\n\r\nTHE 00Z OBSERVATION FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...18.7N/110.9W...SHOW THAT\r\nTHE WINDS ARE NORTH AT 10 KT WITH THE CENTER ABOUT 50 NM TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nIN THE WESTERN QUADRANTS.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 18.1N 110.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.3N 112.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.6N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 119.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-06-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUN 21 1999\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS ON THE DOWNHILL TRACK FOR INTENSITY.  CI NUMBERS ARE\r\nGREATER THAN T-NUMBERS AT TAFB...SAB AND GLOBAL.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 75 KNOTS. ALL INTENSITY FORECAST SCHEMES DECREASE\r\nINTENSITY OUT TO 72 HOURS.  FORECAST CALLS FOR ADRIAN TO BE A\r\nDEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS OVER COOLER WATERS...NEAR 21-22C.\r\n \r\nADRIAN ALSO HAS BEEN DECELERATING OVER THE PAST 24-HOURS AT ABOUT\r\nONE KT/6HOURS.  SEVERAL TRACK MODELS...NOTABLY..UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...MOVING IN APPROXIMATELY THIS SAME DIRECTION ARE ALSO\r\nDECELERATING THE STORM.  THUS...INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08 KNOTS...\r\nAND FUTURE FORECAST POSITIONS TAKE THIS DECELERATION INTO ACCOUNT. \r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSTEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nUNFORTUNATELY...NO MORE OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM SOCORRO\r\nISLAND...18.7N/110.9W...SINCE 21/00Z.  THE ANTENNA AND/OR\r\nTRANSMITTER MAY HAVE BEEN DAMAGED BY ADRIANS WINDS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 18.4N 111.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.7N 113.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N 114.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.3N 115.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.6N 117.1W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 119.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-06-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUN 21 1999\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS SHEARING OFF...WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION WELL NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE 12Z\r\nINFRARED FIXES INDICATING THE CENTER WAS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FIX POSITIONS...THUS REQUIRING A RE-LOCATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/04. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF ADRIAN...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATING A DEEP LAYER WEAKNESS IN THIS AREA. THIS IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOWLY-\r\nMOVING ADRIAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE. WHILE\r\nTHE LBAR AND BAMD TURN ADRIAN NORTH WITH 72 HOUR POSITIONS NORTH OF\r\n26N...THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY TO OCCUR NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nSHEARED AND IS BEING STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nUPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND\r\nSHIFOR...WITH ADRIAN WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND\r\nTO A DEPRESSION IN 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...\r\nADRIAN COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 18.5N 111.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.8N 112.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N 114.2W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-06-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUN 21 1999\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS NOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE CI 4.0...3.5...AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY.\r\nADRIAN IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY\r\nCOLD SSTS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE\r\nCYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/04. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nSYNOPTIC SITUATION OR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WITH THE FORECAST CALLING FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. THE FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE BAMM AND THE BAMS.\r\n\r\nA LATE REPORT FROM SOCORRO ISLAND INDICATED WINDS 070/40 KT AND A\r\n993.0 MB PRESSURE AT 12Z.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 18.8N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N 112.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.6N 113.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.9N 114.9W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-06-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 21 1999\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS NOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE CI 3.5...3.0...AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY.\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS.  FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASINGLY COLD SSTS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN 270/6...AS ADRIAN APPEARS TO\r\nBE NOW FOLLOWING A SHALLOW-LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODESTLY REDUCED BASED ON LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DRIFT\r\nWINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 18.7N 112.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.8N 113.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 18.9N 114.8W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adrian","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-06-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 1999\r\n\r\nADRIAN HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR\r\nMORE. IT IS BASICALLY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER COOL\r\nWATERS AND TOWARD A LARGE SCALE DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT AS SEEN\r\nON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND\r\nARE NOT EVEN LOWER BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY CONSTRAINTS. IT IS KNOWN\r\nTHAT THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WAS NOT DESIGNED FOR EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nSWIRLS.  LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION CLOUD MOTION VECTORS FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 20 KNOTS WITH\r\nA FEW SPOTS OF 30 KNOTS. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE PROBABLY WEAKER\r\nSINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS STABLE.  ADRIAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW...UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...THESE SWIRLS COULD LAST FOR\r\nDAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED.   \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 18.6N 113.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adrian","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-06-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 1999\r\n\r\nADRIAN IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAS BEEN DEVOID OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE\r\nCONVECTION IS UNLIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOL SSTS AND\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION MAY PERSIST FOR\r\nABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/03. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS QUITE\r\nDIVERGENT THIS MORNING FROM THE GFDL FORECASTING A SLOW\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION TO THE BAMD TAKING ADRIAN NORTH TO NEAR 29N\r\n118W IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 18.6N 113.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 18.6N 113.6W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.6N 114.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adrian","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-06-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 1999\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH HAS BEEN DEVOID OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 30 HOURS. THE MAXIMUM SATELLITE\r\nCLOUD WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE ABOUT 20\r\nKT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING WHERE NO SATELLITE WINDS\r\nARE AVAILABLE. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AFTER 12\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH A REMNANT BROAD LOW MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/02...AND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT IS\r\nEXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ADRIAN FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 18.8N 113.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N 113.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED...\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-07-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 09 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE ON THE\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WITH A 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY.  FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...AND SO IT IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ.  BEATRIZ IS SHOWING DECENT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL SHOWS\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BEING ATTAINED WITHIN 36 H.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  BY 72\r\nHOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/09 KNOTS.  MOST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY TRACK...BUT WITH\r\nGREATLY VARYING SPEEDS.  THE AVN INITIALIZES THE VORTEX A BIT TOO\r\nFAR TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING TOO MUCH EASTERLY\r\nFLOW FOR THE BAM MODELS.  THE GFDL SHOWS A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BUT\r\nTHIS MODEL TYPICALLY HAS TROUBLE WITH THESE SYSTEMS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE NAVY NOGAPS FORECAST...AND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE BAM.  \r\n\r\nFRANKLIN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 13.3N 104.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 13.5N 105.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 13.9N 107.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.2N 109.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 14.5N 111.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-07-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 09 1999\r\n \r\nAFTER GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...BEATRIZ IS CATCHING\r\nITS BREATH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5 AND\r\n3.0...RESPECTIVELY.  AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY ALSO HAS 2.5...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.  OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD\r\nAND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS BEATRIZ TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nWITHIN 36 H.  THE CIRCULATION IS STILL RATHER BROAD...AND SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS PULLED BACK JUST A LITTLE...WITH\r\nBEATRIZ FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 H.\r\n\r\nWITH VISIBLE IMAGERY WE NOW HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION...WHICH IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 280/14.  THIS IS FASTER THAN\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL\r\nNOW...AGREES ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nIS RELAXED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 13.4N 106.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.7N 108.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.2N 110.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 113.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 115.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 120.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-07-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 09 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING PATTERN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...\r\nALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS\r\nNOT THAT COLD AND NOT THAT CONCENTRATED. THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nARE T3.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BEATRIZ IS A LITTLE FURTHER\r\nNORTH THAN EARLIER...THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/14. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH LARGE SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATING THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEATRIZ IS UNDER A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR BEATRIZ TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n24 HOURS AND PEAK IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM.\r\n\r\n \r\nBEVEN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 13.9N 107.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.3N 109.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.8N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.1N 115.3W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 118.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-07-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999\r\n \r\nBEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ON A PLATEAU IN ITS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE\r\nPAST 6-HOURS.   THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nAT 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THUS...CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45\r\nKNOTS.  DEVELOPMENT FACTORS OF SSTS AND OUTFLOW HAVE REMAINED\r\nPOSITIVE AND INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS ARE STILL INSISTENT ON\r\nBEATRIZ REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE FORECAST MODELS AND ASSUMES THAT\r\nWHATEVER IS CAUSING THE STORM TO PLATEAU IS TRANSIENT AND IS ABOUT\r\nGONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/14.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL...MOVE THE STORM IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 14.1N 108.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.5N 110.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 14.9N 113.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 15.2N 116.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 15.5N 119.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-07-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE TO THE NORTH PROVIDING THE STEERING.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS\r\nAHEAD OF THE STORM WHICH COULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AT 3.0 T NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BACKS OFF\r\nABOUT 5 KNOTS IN ITS FORECAST AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nTHIS IS BASED ON THE INTENSITY TREND HAVING LEVELED OFF OVER THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LOOKS SYMMETRIC WITH AMPLE\r\nCONVECTION AND BANDING SUCH THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nUS NAVY FNMOC SCATTEROMETER WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST WIND RADII ARE\r\nSMALLER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY VALUES WHICH HAVE BEEN REDUCED.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 14.6N 109.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.0N 111.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.7N 115.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 117.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-07-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHE STORM EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES FOR 72 HOURS AND ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND THE\r\nTAFB INTENSITY NUMBER INCREASED TO 3.5 WHILE SAB AND KGWC REMAINED\r\nAT 3.0.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n  \r\nLATEST U.S. NAVY FNMOC SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW A 41 KNOT WIND SPEED\r\nSOME 150 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 33 KNOTS ABOUT 80 N MI\r\nSOUTHWEST OF CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED RADII ARE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 14.6N 110.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.0N 112.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 15.5N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.8N 117.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 119.6W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-07-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 10 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nBEATRIZ IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. BEATRIZ\r\nIS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBER FROM TAFB INDICATES SO.  HOWEVER...SAB AND KGWC NUMBERS ARE\r\nSTILL 3.5 OR JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  NO SURPRISE IF AN EYE\r\nWILL BECOME VISIBLE AT ANY TIME.  BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR STRENGTHEN\r\nBEATRIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER...PROBABLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER SST AHEAD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS BEATRIZ TO 75 KNOTS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.     \r\n\r\nBEATRIZ IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL\r\nESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER MEAN EASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST.  THEREFORE...BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.     \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 14.4N 112.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 14.5N 113.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 118.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 121.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-07-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BEATRIZ\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE\r\nTHRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS\r\nRATHER RAGGED.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT INHIBITED OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE...BUT OTHERWISE THE CLOUD FEATURES ARE WELL\r\nORGANIZED.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ADEQUATE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nAS WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nSHOWS BEATRIZ BECOMING A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...MORE STABLE AIR AND DECREASING OCEAN TEMPERATURES\r\nARE LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES WESTWARD AT AROUND 12 KNOTS AND THE LATEST NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NEAR 25N 132W...COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE PROPAGATING SWIFTLY WESTWARD...\r\nSTAYING WELL AHEAD OF BEATRIZ.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 14.5N 113.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.7N 115.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 117.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 120.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 122.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 126.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-07-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET SHOW\r\nA WEST NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE REST ARE DUE WESTWARD.  THIS\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A MID LEVEL\r\nWEAKNESS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF BETRIZ AS SEEN IN THE 06Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC AND MAX WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER SYMMETRIC CDO PATTERN BUT\r\nNO EYE YET.  THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 14.4N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.3N 122.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.8N 124.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-07-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999\r\n \r\nAN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE AND COLD CDO IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING\r\nTHE INTENSITY TO 75 KNOTS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE TAFB AND SAB\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES OVER 25 DEGREE SSTS IN 72\r\nHOURS...NOT COLD ENOUGH TO FORECAST MUCH WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET REMAIN A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS INFLUENCED BY\r\nTHIS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 14.0N 116.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.0N 117.9W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N 120.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.7N 122.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 125.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 128.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-07-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 11 1999\r\n \r\nTHE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BECOME MORE\r\nDISTINCT WITH SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS OF -65 TO -70C WRAPPING THREE\r\nQUARTERS THE WAY AROUND THE EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT...RESPECTIVELY. OVERALL...\r\nBEATRIZ HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS WITH\r\nIMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FORECAST THROUGH\r\n24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS BEATRIZ\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...NEAR 25C BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT. THE MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF BEATRIZ SHOULD STEER BEATRIZ ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nHEADING THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST AND DECELERATION BEYOND AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES A BREAK\r\nIN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND CLIPER ALTHOUGH\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER. THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND BAMD REMAIN THE RIGHT-MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 14.1N 116.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.2N 118.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 121.1W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 123.3W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-07-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 12 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A 10-15 N MI DIAMETER EYE\r\nEMBEDDED IN -60 TO -70C CLOUD TOPS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS\r\nSTRONG EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE CURRENT NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS WESTWARD NEAR 10 KNOTS.  DEEP-LAYER MEAN STEERING FORECAST\r\nBY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL IS WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nPRESUMABLY DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ALONG\r\n125W/130W.  HOWEVER THIS WEAKNESS MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH TO HAVE MUCH\r\nIMPACT ON THE STEERING.\r\n\r\nLATEST ERS-2 SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM NAVY FLEET NUMERICAL SHOW THAT\r\nTHE WIND RADII ESTIMATES IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES MAY HAVE BEEN TOO\r\nLARGE...SO THE 34- AND 50-KNOT RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 14.1N 117.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.1N 119.4W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 121.7W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 129.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-07-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 12 1999\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 10Z INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF\r\nBEATRIZ HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT...AND THE SURROUNDING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS DUE\r\nTO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR A PEAKING OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO\r\nINTERACTION WITH COLDER WATER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T5.5\r\nFROM SAB AND T5.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO\r\nCOLDER WATER AND POSSIBLE SHEAR. ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK WOULD LIKELY CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING OVER COLDER\r\nWATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS SCATTERED\r\nAROUND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH THE BAMS...BAMM...AND\r\nP91E MORE TO THE WEST AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\nTHE 06Z GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A\r\nNORTHWEST TURN AFTER 12 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO SOON BASED ON\r\nTHE STRONG RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VARIOUS MODEL\r\nHEIGHT FIELDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR...BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IT CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS AND A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER. SOME DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nWEAKENS. \r\n \r\nBEVEN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 14.3N 118.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.5N 120.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 122.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.4N 124.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 127.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-07-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 12 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CHANGES IN STORM STRUCTURE SEEN BEFORE THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nBEATRIZ WERE APPARENTLY A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nHAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO HAS A WELL-DEFINED 21\r\nNM WIDE EYE. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE T5.5...SO BEATRIZ IS NOW A 100 KT MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE THE\r\nOFFICAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER...IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING IF THE WINDS INCREASED BY 5-10 KT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/10. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGED...WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nSOUTH OF THE RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 12Z GFDL RUN IS\r\nCALLING FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THE 06Z RUN...ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nSTILL TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD MOTION REMAINS LIKELY AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.\r\nTHE OFFICAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 14.3N 119.8W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 121.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.8N 123.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.3N 125.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 127.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-07-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 1999\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS...AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT T5.5.  HOWEVER...THE EYE LOOKS A LITTLE TIGHTER NOW AND\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE G0NE UP A BIT SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 105 KT.  THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO LOOKS IMPROVED...AND A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 105\r\nKT FOR 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/10.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS RATHER\r\nDIVERGENT...WITH NOGAPS AND GFDL SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nAND THE BAM MODELS ESSENTIALLY WEST.  THE AVN BRINGS BEATRIZ TO A\r\nHALT AFTER 48 HOURS.  HIGH-DENSITY WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF BEATRIZ THAT SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE HURRICANE ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 14.6N 120.8W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N 122.4W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.2N 124.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.7N 126.4W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 128.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-07-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A CLEAR-CUT 20 N MI DIAMETER\r\nEYE.  CURRENT DVORAK ANALYSES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...SO\r\nTHE WIND ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY CONTINUES AT 105 KNOTS.  THE\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THERE IS NO\r\nEVIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF ANY ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES TO CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING AT THIS TIME.  LATEST ANALYSES FROM THE U. OF WISC. CIMSS\r\nHOMEPAGE SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR OUT THROUGH 132W LONGITUDE SOUTH\r\nOF 20N.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DUE TO SST COOLING TO 24-25 DEGREES C ALONG THE\r\nPROJECTED TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...AVN...FORECAST INITIALIZED AT 06Z\r\nSHOWS A VORTEX FORMING A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nBEATRIZ.  THAT MODEL RUN ALSO SHOWS ADDITIONAL VORTICES FORMING\r\nFARTHER NORTHEAST.  THE RESULT IS A LARGE ELLIPTICAL CIRCULATION\r\nEXTENDING NEARLY 1000 N MI EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM BEATRIZ IN THE\r\n2-3 DAY FORECAST.  THIS INFLUENCES THE AVN TRACK FORECAST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION AND TURNING THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SOUTHWARD.  THE BAM TRACKS ARE LIKELY ALSO ALTERED BY THESE\r\nDEVELOPMENTS.  BECAUSE THE AVN RUN DOES NOT LOOK ENTIRELY\r\nREALISTIC... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...AND BEATRIZ IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 14.8N 121.8W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 125.3W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 127.3W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-07-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI DIAMETER\r\nEYE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 5.6-5.7. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT T5.5...102 KT...THUS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 105 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH\r\nA MOTION OF 290/10. THE REASON FOR THE TURN IS NOT OBVIOUS.\r\nHOWEVER... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR\r\n22N119W MAY BE WEAKENING THE RIDGE NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THE 06Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL DEVELOPS A ELONGATED CYCLONIC VORTEX FROM BEATRIZ AND\r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS CAUSES THE\r\nMODEL TO MOVE THE STORM IN A HALF-LOOP...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS. THE BAM MODELS ARE ALSO AFFECTED BY THE\r\nVORTEX...TURNING BEATRIZ WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS\r\nAND GDFL KEEP CALLING FOR A NORTHWEST TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS BEATRIZ ALONG A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WITH SOME SLOWING AFTER 36 HOURS AS A\r\nTROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THIS IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LBAR AND UKMET...AND IS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK SHOULD BRING BEATRIZ TO COLDER WATER MORE\r\nQUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER\r\nWEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL-STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON A 12Z\r\nREPORT FROM SHIP VRUM4...WHICH HAD 35 KT WINDS 190 N MI NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 15.3N 122.7W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.8N 124.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.4N 126.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 128.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 131.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-07-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI DIAMETER\r\nEYE. HOWEVER...THE TOPS ARE WARMING AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST WEAKENING IS BEGINNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 100 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL IS STILL DEVELOPING A DUBIOUS LOOKING BROAD\r\nVORTEX THAT ENVELOPES BOTH BEATRIZ AND THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST. THIS MAKES THE AVN AND THE BAM MODEL TRACK SUSPECT.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK...WITH SOME SLOWING AFTER 36 HOURS AS A TROUGH NEAR THE U.S.\r\nWEST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THIS IS AGAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LBAR AND UKMET...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH\r\nCALLS FOR BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN 48 AND\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 15.5N 123.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 124.8W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.6N 126.6W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.3N 128.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-07-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 1999\r\n \r\nBEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 5.5...WITH LOWER DATA T\r\nNUMBERS...BUT THE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE COME UP A BIT THIS\r\nEVENING.  AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP IN\r\nTHE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nBEATRIZ HAS TURNED A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 295/10.  HIGH-DENSITY WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nSHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING ROUGHLY WITH THE SURROUNDING MID-\r\nLEVEL FLOW...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE\r\nOUTFLOW OF THE DISTURBANCE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  ALL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MORE NORTHWARD TREND IS TEMPORARY...WITH\r\nA RIDGE REMAINING TO THE NORTHWEST OF BEATRIZ.  AS THE HURRICANE\r\nWEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...STEERING WILL PRESUMABLY BE DETERMINED\r\nBY A SHALLOWER LAYER FLOW.  THIS REASONING WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A\r\nRETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OUT TO 36 HOURS...AND TO THE\r\nLEFT AND FASTER BEYOND THAT.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 16.3N 124.5W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 127.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.2N 129.8W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 132.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 135.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-07-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF BEATRIZ IS BECOMING RAGGED AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS\r\nARE WARMING.  AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...IT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT\r\n06Z RANGED FROM 5.0 TO 5.5...I.E. 90 TO 102 KNOTS.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...BY WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT BEATRIZ WILL BE OVER 23\r\nDEG C WATERS.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES 295/10.  THE SLIGHT RIGHTWARD TURN OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BEATRIZ...AS SUGGESTED BY THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL AND HINTED AT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  AS THE SYSTEM\r\nWEAKENS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nFLOW...HENCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS PREDICTED LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD. \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 16.6N 125.4W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N 126.8W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.9N 128.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.3N 130.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.7N 132.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 135.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-07-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nREMAINS AT 95 KT. BEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN A FASTER WEAKENING IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS COLDER WATER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nOVER 22C-23C WATER BY 72 HOURS...AND IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM OR POSSIBLY A DEPRESSION BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. THE AVIATION MODEL IS STILL HAVING\r\nPROBLEMS WITH BEATRIZ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E...AND ONE OR TWO\r\nOTHER SPURIOUS-LOOKING VORTICES IT PRODUCES. THIS CAUSES IT AND THE\r\nBAM MODELS TO TURN BEATRIZ SOUTH OF WEST. A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY\r\nAS BEATRIZ WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT...BUT NOT\r\nAS SHARP AS THE TURN INDICATED BY THE BAM MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 17.2N 126.2W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 127.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 129.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 131.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 133.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 136.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES 305/9. CURRENT INTESNITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 90 KT...SO THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO THAT.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST INTO COLDER WATER...WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES\r\nDOMINANT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEATRIZ WEAKENING TO A\r\nDEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS OVER 22C-23C SSTS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 17.7N 126.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 128.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 129.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 131.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 133.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 135.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL POSITION...\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AT 305/9.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0 AND 4.5...RESPECTIVEY...AND SO\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 85 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nINTO COLDER WATER...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEATRIZ WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS OVER\r\n22C-23C SSTS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 18.2N 127.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N 128.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 130.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.7N 132.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 134.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 136.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-07-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999\r\n\r\nAN EYE IS STILL VISIBLE ON INFRARED IMAGES AND THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nFAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION...PRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  BEATRIZ HAS BEEN WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY UP TO THIS\r\nPOINT...BUT IT IS HEADED FOR SEA SURFACE TEMPS NEAR 23 DEG C IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  THEREFORE A MORE RAPID DEGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE\r\nSAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.  A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS LIKELY AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE\r\nBECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 18.6N 128.4W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 129.7W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.8N 131.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.2N 132.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 134.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 137.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ CONTINUES MOVING 300/9. THE EYE HAS DIMINISHERD TO A SMALL\r\nWARM SPOT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...INDICATING THAT COLDER SSTS ARE\r\nFINALLY TAKING A TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHIES ARE LITTLE CHANGED\r\nFROM THE LAST THREE PACKAGES. BEATRIZ WILL MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST AS IT WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME DOMINANT. WITH\r\n22C-23C SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nDISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 18.9N 129.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.6N 130.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N 132.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.4N 133.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N 138.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-07-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 15 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ IS NOW WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 77...77...AND 65\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK PHILOSOPHY...WITH BEATRIZ EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT\r\nWEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE BAMS...WHICH INDICATES A \r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AT 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST WEAKENING RATE HAS BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nTRENDS. BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER 22C-23C SSTS BY\r\n72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE\r\nBEFORE THEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON\r\nREPORTS FROM THE SHIPS P3GB4 AND 3FJI3.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 19.2N 129.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.8N 130.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N 132.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N 134.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 136.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-07-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 15 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCLOUD SWIRL IS DECOUPLING FROM A MORE CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH THE LATTER RACING OFF AHEAD OF THE FORMER.  IF\r\nTHIS IS INDEED THE CASE...THEN BEATRIZ IS IN EXTREMELY RAPID\r\nDECLINE.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  GIVEN ITS APPARENT DECAPITATION...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF BEATRIZ IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.  FOLLOWING THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER GIVES 290/7...WHICH GIVES GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHLTY\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AT 48\r\nHOURS...BUT MAY OCCUR MUCH SOONER.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 19.2N 130.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N 131.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.9N 133.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N 134.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-07-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIAL MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION EXPECTED AS THE\r\nWEAKENING STORM IS STEERED BY PROGRESSIVELY LOWER LEVEL STEERING. \r\nTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  ONLY THE\r\nLBAR..BAM...AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION.\r\n\r\nGOES10 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE ARE NO CLOUD TOPS COLDER\r\nTHAN -50C AS COLD SSTS TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.  RECENT\r\nSCATTEROMETER AND SSM/I WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE US NAVY FNMOC\r\nHOMEPAGE INDICATE THAT ALL WINDS ARE BELOW 30 KT EXCEPT FOR A SMALL\r\nAREA NEAR THE CENTER WHERE THERE ARE NO WIND SPEED ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40 KT EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN\r\n48 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n\r\nTHE FNMOC WIND DATA IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE 34-KT RADII\r\nTO 75 NMI IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 19.8N 132.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 133.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.2N 135.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.3N 137.5W    20 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N 139.0W    DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-07-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 1999\r\n \r\nBEATRIZ HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION INDICATING THAT A RAPID WEAKENING IS OCCURRING. BEATRIZ\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME BUT THERE\r\nMAY BE SOME TROPICAL STORM GUSTS NORTH OF THE CENTER.   ALTHOUGH\r\nDVORAK NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT BEATRIZ IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM...WE\r\nKNOW THAT THESE NUMBERS ARE CONSTRAINED BY RULES WHICH WERE NOT\r\nDESIGNED FOR THE WEAKENING SYSTEMS OVER EASTERN PACIFIC COOL WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/09.  BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTED BY BAM SHALLOW. THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED LATER TODAY BUT...AS\r\nUSUAL...A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 19.8N 132.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 134.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N 136.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-07-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 16 1999\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO\r\nTHE NORTH MAY SUPPORT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE BUT WINDS SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY SUBSIDE. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.   FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECAST ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AFOS HEADER\r\nMIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 19.7N 133.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N 134.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-07-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 14 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 285/16. GUIDANCE\r\nBASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL SUGGESTS A WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SUSPECT DUE TO THE MODEL DEVELOPING\r\nSPURIOUS-LOOKING VORTICES NEAR THE DEPRESSION. BOTH THE AVIATION AND\r\nTHE NOGAPS SHOW AN UNUSUALLY STRONG TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE U.S.\r\nWEST COAST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 20N111W IS PROVIDING GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER COLDER\r\nWATER.\r\n\r\nBEVEN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 17.3N 109.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.9N 112.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.6N 115.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.2N 117.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EVEN WITH\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...AS SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 120 NM FROM\r\nTHOSE OF AFWA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE TAFB FIX AND A\r\nREPORT FROM SHIP VRUM4...WHICH CALL FOR SOME RE-LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER AND AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 270/16. THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nBE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST...BUT THE POSITION UNCERTAINTY MAKES IT\r\nUNWISE TO CHANGE THE MOTION THAT MUCH IN THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nNHC HURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE\r\nCYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WHILE THIS MAY BE OCCURRING NOW...THIS\r\nGUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCED BY A SPURIOUS LOOKING VORTEX THE\r\nAVIATION DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THREE-E. THE OFFICAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LBAR. SOME GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION SHOULD OCCUR\r\nAS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS.\r\n\r\nA FORECAST OF STRENGTHENING HAS ITS PROS AND CONS. ON THE CON\r\nSIDE...THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY VERY DISORGANIZED. ALSO...THE\r\nUPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN EARLIER NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nWEAKENED...ALLOWING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ON THE PRO SIDE... THE\r\nAVIATION AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE...AND THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nWARMER WATER FOR A LONGER TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nBEVEN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 16.4N 111.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.4N 113.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 116.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N 119.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 122.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE WHETHER THERE IS ANY DEFINITE SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINING.  SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE AMAZINGLY CLOSE...CONSIDERING THE WAY THE SYSTEM LOOKS.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 270/16...UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BASED ON\r\n25 KT WINDS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND EARLIER IN THE DAY THE INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT...\r\nFROM WHICH THE AVIATION MODEL DEVELOPS AN ADDITIONAL VORTEX THAT\r\nTURNS THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR WESTWARD MOTION AT A SOMEWHAT REDUCED SPEED THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nCONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION...DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 16.4N 113.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.4N 115.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N 118.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 123.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-07-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION...OR WHAT REMAINS OF IT...IS VERY DISORGANIZED WITH\r\nINSUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION TO WARRANT AN INTENSITY MEASUREMENT\r\nVIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SHIP VRUM4\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED.\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KNOTS AND ADVISORIES MAY BE\r\nDISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE..FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...IS 270/14.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION...AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 16.4N 114.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 116.4W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 119.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 124.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 128.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBER...\r\n  \r\nOVERNIGHT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO CENTERS \r\nASSOCIATED WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE DEPRESSION. THE FIRST IS NEAR \r\n18N113W AND MAY BE THE CENTER TRACKED BY AFWA AND SEEN IN MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY YESTERDAY. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY \r\nHAVE BEEN THE MAIN CENTER OF THE SYSTEM ALL ALONG. THE SECOND IS \r\nNEAR THE ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH MAY BE THE CENTER TRACKED BY TAFB\r\nAND SAB YESTERDAY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED \r\nWITH EITHER CENTER...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 12 \r\nHOURS IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY. \r\n \r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF A LARGE MONSOON-LIKE CIRCULATION NEAR THE DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH \r\nTHE DETAILS OF THE MODEL FORECAST HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL...THE \r\nLATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS FORMING. IF DEVELOPMENT\r\nCONTINUES...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION THREE-E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION \r\nOCCURS. \r\n  \r\nBEVEN \r\n  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS \r\n  \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 14.6N 114.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING \r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n  \r\nNNNN \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 15 1999\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TWO CENTERS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH WHAT REMAINS OF THE DEPRESSION. THE FIRST IS NEAR\r\n18N113W AND MAY BE THE CENTER TRACKED BY AFWA AND SEEN IN MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY YESTERDAY. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS MAY\r\nHAVE BEEN THE MAIN CENTER OF THE SYSTEM ALL ALONG. THE SECOND IS\r\nNEAR THE ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH MAY BE THE CENTER TRACKED BY TAFB\r\nAND SAB YESTERDAY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH EITHER CENTER...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 12\r\nHOURS IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY.\r\n\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF A LARGE MONSOON-LIKE CIRCULATION NEAR THE DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE DETAILS OF THE MODEL FORECAST HAVE NOT VERIFIED WELL...THE\r\nLATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THE CIRCULATION IS FORMING. IF DEVELOPMENT\r\nCONTINUES...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY ABSORB THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION THREE-E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 14.6N 114.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1                    \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL                                  \r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999                                            \r\n                                                                    \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE    \r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES WHILE   \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED.  SATELLITE        \r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A   \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE  ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING ONLY SO...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS AS SUGGESTED BY SHIFOR AND SHIPS MODELS.      \r\n                                                                   \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15.  THERE IS ENOUGH     \r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...IF\r\nTHE SYSTEM SURVIVES.  THIS TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. \r\n                                                              \r\nAVILA                                                               \r\n                                                                    \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS                                    \r\n                                                                    \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 13.7N 132.6W    30 KTS                         \r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N 135.0W    35 KTS                         \r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.5N 138.0W    35 KTS                         \r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W    35 KTS                         \r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 144.0W    35 KTS                         \r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 15.5N 150.0W    35 KTS                         \r\n                                                                    \r\n                                                                    \r\nNNNN                                                                \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VERY SMALL AND\r\nPOORLY DEFINED...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T1.5...25 KT FROM AFWA\r\nTO 3.0...45 KT FROM SAB.  TAFB IS IN THE MIDDLE AT 30 KT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A SHIP...\r\nELWB8...LOCATED ABOUT 125 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WINDS\r\nOF ONLY 9 KT.\r\n\r\nOUTFLOW IS APPARENT ONLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL STRENGTHENS THE DEPRESSION ONLY SLOWLY AND LEVELS\r\nOFF AT ABOUT 40 KT.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE COMPETING\r\nFLOW AROUND THE ITCZ...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST... \r\nWITH THE DEPRESSION REACHING STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND HIGH-DENSITY\r\nCLOUD MOTION VECTORS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS SHOW A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION. \r\nHOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 13.9N 134.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.3N 136.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.8N 139.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.1N 142.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 145.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED SOUTHEAST\r\nTO NORTHWEST GENERALLY ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T1.5...25 KT FROM AFWA\r\nTO 2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB.  OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING A BIT AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 12 H\r\nAND TO 48 KT IN 48 HOURS.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nCOMPETING FLOW AROUND THE ITCZ...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS\r\nAND SHIFOR.\r\n \r\nWITH AN ELONGATED CENTER THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 275/14.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS ENOUGH\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTERLY\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 13.7N 135.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.9N 137.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.3N 140.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 14.6N 143.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 153.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 1999\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35...35...AND 30 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FOUR-E IS AT OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST AND...UNLESS THERE IS A TIGHT CENTER HIDDEN UNDER THE\r\nCONVECTION...LOOKS A LITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. IN VIEW\r\nOF THE MIXED SIGNALS...THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/14. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION IS WEAKENING AND LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS\r\nALLOWING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. MOST\r\nLARGE-SCALE AND NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE INDICATE A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nMOTION SOUTH OF THIS LARGE RIDGE. THE OUTLIERS ARE THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET...WHICH TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE LARGE RIDGE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION AND IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH FAIR\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AVIATION AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE LIGHT SHEAR TO CONTINUE...WHICH COULD ALLOW THIS SLOW-\r\nDEVELOPING SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 25C SSTS\r\nBY 72 HOURS...THAT PROBABLY WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON A SYSTEM OF\r\nTHIS INTENSITY.\r\n \r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 14.0N 137.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.2N 139.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 142.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.8N 144.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 148.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 15.5N 154.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 1999\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WITH A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  IN FACT...IT IS LESS DEFINED THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND IT\r\nSEEMS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE ITCZ WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE LARGE SCALE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE IN\r\nINTENSITY AND IS NOW WEAKENING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE EITHER STEADY\r\nOR DECREASING INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE GFDL DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION IN 6 HOURS AND SHIPS MODEL MAKES\r\nIT A TROPICAL STORM SOON.  ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT TREND IS WEAKENING\r\n...I AM NOT ABOUT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES USING IR IMAGES TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM\r\nSTATUS.   \r\n\r\nI DO NOT THINK THERE IS MUCH MORE TO SAY ABOUT THIS WEAK SYSTEM\r\nEXCEPT THAT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nWESTWARD AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO ENTER THE NWS HONOLULU AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY. \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 14.2N 138.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.3N 140.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.7N 143.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 149.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 15.5N 155.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 1999\r\n \r\nTHE AREAL EXTEND OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS DIMISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.\r\nIN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALBEIT POORLY DEFINED...IS\r\nNOW EXPOSED WITH ONLY MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION SEEN SOUTH AND WEST\r\nOF THE CENTER. ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS\r\nINDICATE 15-20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE \r\nOF THE DEPRESSION COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD\r\nOF THE SYSTEM AS SUGGESTED BY CIMSS ANALYSES...NO STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST. THE FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATING AT 72 HOURS\r\nALTHOUGH THIS COULD HAPPEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 275/16 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK SHOWS A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMM.\r\n \r\nWITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAVING CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE...\r\nFUTURE ADVISORIES ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 14.2N 140.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.4N 142.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 14.6N 145.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.9N 149.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.2N 152.4W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 158.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-C","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA44 PHNL 241200\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER 7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST SAT JUL 24 1999\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WHOSE CONVECTION DECREASED OVERNIGHT HAS SHOWN LITTLE\r\nORGANIZATION WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WITH COLDER WATER\r\nAHEAD OF ITS WESTWARD PATH AND APPARENT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WE WILL\r\nDISSIPATE THE DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND MAKE THIS ISSUANCE ITS\r\nLAST.  MATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 14.0N 142.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 14.2N 145.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 14.4N 149.8W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 25 1999\r\n\r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE REVEAL A LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION.  THIS HAD ALSO BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE 2-CHANNEL IR\r\nCOMBINATION IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  A SHEARING\r\nENVIRONMENT DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD\r\nINHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...BUT ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION\r\nWOULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THIS IS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL INTENSITY PREDICTION SCHEME.  NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nPREVIOUS CENTER FIXES ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST GUESS AT\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS\r\nIN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION\r\nMODELS AND MEDIUM- TO SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 15.7N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.2N 121.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N 123.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 25 1999\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE LESS-ORGANIZED LOOKING THAN BEFORE. \r\nLOW-CLOUD LINES DEFINING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ARE NOT AS\r\nDISTINCT AS THEY WERE SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL EVIDENT...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE\r\nNORTHWEST EDGE OF A PERSISTENT MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION.  THE\r\nLATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THUS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ALLOWED\r\nFOR...AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND JUST A SMIDGEON TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nACCORDINGLY.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. \r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...LIKELY DUE TO A\r\n500 MB MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOWN BY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL NEAR 130W.\r\nHOWEVER IT IS THOUGHT THAT THIS WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD RESPOND\r\nMORE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER TRADEWIND FLOW...AND CONTINUE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 15.7N 117.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.4N 119.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N 121.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 123.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 125.3W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 25 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SHOWING A CONTINUED MOSTLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE SLOWING DOWN IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nNEAR 130\r\nDEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AS SEEN ON THE AVIATION MODEL.  SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nSHIFTED A TAD TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE INITIAL DIRECTION OF MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES CONTINUE TO LOOK A LITTLE RAGGED ON\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY.  AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT THERE IS NO BANDING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS COOLER SSTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 16.3N 118.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 16.9N 120.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 122.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 26 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN TO TROPICAL \r\nSTORM AND FOR INITIAL POSITION...\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS NOT\r\nIMPROVED MARKELY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS\r\nIN A SHEARED STATE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED 0.5 TO 0.75 DEG FROM\r\nTHE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CALVIN.  THE 00Z AVN MODEL SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHIS COUPLED WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST/S...NEAR 23C BY\r\n36 HOURS...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS CALVIN A MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM FOR 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 130W\r\nDIGGING SOUTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH SOME DECELERATION BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...AND REPRESENTS A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD ADJUSTED TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. HOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL LEFT OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AND THUS BE STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 16.8N 119.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.6N 121.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.4N 123.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 19.2N 125.2W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 127.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-07-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 26 1999\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE\r\nPACIFIC N OF 16N BETWEEN 115W AND 140W. THIS HAS PRODUCED STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER CALVIN...WITH MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nINDICATING THE CENTER IS NOW OVER 100 NM FROM THE FORMER CENTRAL...\r\nNOW WEAKENING...CONVECTION. IF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-\r\nFORM NEAR THE CENTER...CALVIN WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION\r\nLATER TODAY. WITH THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTING CONTINUED SHEAR...\r\nAND CALVIN MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SSTS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK. CALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST IN\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 17.4N 121.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 18.2N 122.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N 125.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Calvin","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 26 1999\r\n\r\nCALVIN CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL FLARE-\r\nUPS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY. CALVIN IS THUS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS\r\nADVISORY. A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND COLDER SSTS SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED THAN EARLIER...AS\r\nCALVIN MAY INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO ITS SOUTHWEST.\r\nFORTUNATELY...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE BEFORE THE\r\nINTERACTION IS TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK...SUCH AS IT IS...IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS JUST\r\nAS IMPRESSIVE AS...IF NOT MORE THAN...CALVIN AT THIS TIME.\r\nHOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY 25 KT OR LESS\r\nAND SO FAR IT HAS NOT DEVELOPED THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION CALVIN ONCE\r\nHAD. THUS...IT IS NOT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION YET.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 17.6N 122.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N 124.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.8N 126.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Calvin","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 26 1999\r\n \r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nMOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER. \r\nTHIS IS PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  ALL\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS EXCEPT THE GFDL AND NOGAPS WHICH BOTH DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM\r\nRIGHT AWAY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nCOOLER WATERS ARE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH A SUGGESTION OF\r\nCONVECIVE BANDING EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THIS\r\nIS IN THE FACE OF APPARENT WESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE SYSTEM LOCATED\r\nABOUT 450 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 18.0N 122.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.7N 123.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.4N 125.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.2N 126.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Calvin","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999\r\n \r\nMULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-CLOUD SWIRL OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE RIGHT.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 315/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY SHOWS A\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BURST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON HAS ENDED AND THERE IS NO\r\nLONGER ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  GIVEN THE SSTS...NO FURTHER\r\nSIGNIFICANT OUTBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.  DISSIPATION SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN\r\n12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUD SWIRL MAY PERSIST FOR A COUPLE\r\nMORE DAYS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 18.8N 122.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.6N 123.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.9N 124.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Calvin","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IT IS STILL PRODUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF CALVIN APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE IN\r\nMULTISPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A RESIDUAL LOW CLOUD SWIRL COULD PERSIST\r\nFOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON CALVIN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 19.6N 123.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS GONE THROUGH A PERIOD OF ENHANCED\r\nCONVECTION WHICH IS NOW DIMINISHING.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN BELOW STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 30 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE\r\nPUSHING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST...TD SIX IS NOT FAR\r\nFROM THE COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER SHEARS THAT ARE WEAKENING\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY...BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH INCREASE TO\r\nMAKE STORM STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BRIEF\r\nPERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE DISSIPATION BEGINS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH IR IMAGERY...BUT THE BEST\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM LAYER BAM.  SOME\r\nSLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST LATER IN THER PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 15.3N 129.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 130.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 18.5N 134.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 135.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A JUST-RECEIVED 07Z ERS\r\nSCATTEROMETER OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE CENTER WAS SOUTHEAST OF THE 06Z\r\nFIXES. BASED ON THE ERS DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n305/7. SOME RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH APPEARS WELL-ANALYZED IN THE LARGE SCALE\r\nMODELS. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE TROUGH BY SUGGESTING\r\nA MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED. EVEN THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM MODEL FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BE NORTH OF 24N IN 72 HOURS...\r\nWHICH IS SURPRISING SINCE THE AVIATION MODEL KEEPS A STRONG LOW\r\nLEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS TO THE LEFT\r\nAND SLOWER THAN ALL OTHER NHC GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER. IT IS NOTABLE\r\nTHAT THE NOGAPS SUGGESTS A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS...AS THIS COULD HAPPEN IF SIX-E IS NOT PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING ONLY\r\nISOLATED CONVECTION. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THIS...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND APPARENTLY IN LIGHT SHEAR. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH SIX-E\r\nREACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER\r\nWATER. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THE SYSTEM MAY NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN AT ALL.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 15.3N 129.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.9N 130.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.8N 131.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.1N 132.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999\r\n\r\nAPPARENTLY THE SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WAS STRONGER THAN THOUGHT\r\nEARLIER...AS VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER WITH\r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE EAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS \r\nA SHORT-TERM WESTERLY MOTION...WHILE LONGER TERM MOTION IS\r\nNORTHWESTERLY. THE BEST ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 285/9. MOST\r\nNHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH\r\nMOTION IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN\r\nTHE SHEARED SYSTEM AND THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nMOTION FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST. THIS\r\nTRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...AND HAS BEEN CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nWITH SHEAR FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD\r\nGRADUALLY COLDER WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN CHANGED TO\r\nSLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN\r\nMORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST HERE...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL\r\nDISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 15.5N 130.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.9N 131.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N 133.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N 137.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE\r\nEXPOSED WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SOME 60 NMI\r\nTO THE EAST.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 1.0/1.5/2.0 FROM\r\nAFWA/TAFB/SAB.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS OR LESS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET MODELS AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...BY THE\r\nSHALLOW BAM MODEL.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 15.7N 130.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N 135.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N 137.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS... WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nSOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DEPRESSION ON THIS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN\r\n110W-130W...WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N113W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE\r\nFEATURES SUGGESTS A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IS\r\nTHE NOGAPS MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE AVN MODEL BUILDS A MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE...WITH AVN-BASED GUIDANCE\r\nAND THE GFDL INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. AN ADDITIONAL FLY\r\nIN THE OINTMENT IS THE SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL LOW NEAR 12N 120W WHICH\r\nIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WAS INITIALIZED TOO\r\nFAR EAST BY BOTH THE AVN AND NOGAPS...COULD COMPLICATE THE STEERING\r\nOF SEVEN-E IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. WITH THE LARGER THAN NORMAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE ONLY CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nBE A FASTER MOTION DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO REFLECT THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED...THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS IS LIKELY TO BE A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL. THE NOGAPS FORECASTS LESS SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AFTER 24\r\nHOURS THAN THE AVN...AND IF THIS VERIFIES THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY\r\nMORE QUICKLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 12.6N 102.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 13.1N 105.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 13.9N 107.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 110.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 16.0N 116.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT\r\nFROM AFWA.  DEEP CONVECTION PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW\r\nDECREASING...SO DEPRESSION STATUS WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH STORM STRENGTH WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS AND HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 72 HOURS...A FORECAST THAT IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.  THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE DEPRESSION\r\nIMMEDIATELY ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BUT THIS FORECAST IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE BASED ON A VERY POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE DISTURBANCE\r\nCURRENTLY NEAR 12N120W.  THE GFDL ALSO SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN\r\n110W-130W...AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N113W.  HOWEVER...THE LBAR...\r\nBAMS...AND UKMET...THE LAST OF WHICH IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PROPERLY\r\nINITIALIZE THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...ALL\r\nSUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  BASED ON THE SUPERIOR\r\nUKMET INITIALIZATION THE NORTHWEST OPTION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS\r\nTIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 13.1N 104.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 13.7N 106.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.3N 108.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 14.9N 111.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 15.5N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nBANDING DURING THE DAY TO WARRANT ITS UPGRADE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nDORA.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\n25 KT FROM AFWA.  OUTFLOW IS DECENT ON THE WESTERN SIDE AND SSTS ARE\r\nNEARLY 29C.  THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE NO REASON WHY DORA SHOULD NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 285/15.  THE NOGAPS MODEL\r\nMOVES DORA INITIALLY ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BUT THIS FORECAST IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE BASED ON A VERY POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE DISTURBANCE\r\nTHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM EUGENE.  ALL OTHER GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFDL TURNS\r\nDORA MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE REMAINING GUIDANCE HAS A TURN\r\nTO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST...IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING\r\nAHEAD OF THE STORM.  THIS APPEARS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVE\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IS THE TRACK OF EUGENE...WHICH\r\nIS NOT MOVING AS FAST AS DORA...AND MAY COME INTO PLAY NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 13.4N 105.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 13.9N 107.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.6N 110.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.1N 113.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 15.4N 115.2W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 15.5N 119.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND IS\r\nMAINTAINING THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE DERIVED\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 2.5/2.5/3.0 FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL/SAB/MIAMI. COMMENTS\r\nSUGGEST CONSTRAINTS ON HIGHER T-NUMBERS... SO AM INCREASING INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS.  SHIFOR AND SHIPS INCREASE INTENSITY AT ABOUT\r\n10 KNOTS PER 12 HOURS OUT TO 48 HOURS.  OFFICIAL FOLLOWS THIS TREND\r\nAND MAKES THE STORM A HURRICANE IN 24-HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 285/15.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT GFDL IS NOW NEAR\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK DIRECTION BUT MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 13.8N 107.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 14.3N 109.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 14.8N 112.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 15.3N 114.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 15.5N 116.3W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.  THIS IS TWO KNOTS SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MOTION COULD BE EVEN SLOWER IF\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE SMALL PERSISTENT CDO. \r\nHOWEVER I AM RELUCTANT TO CHANGE THE MOTION VERY MUCH ON THE BASIS\r\nOF INFRARED TRACKING.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW THE STORM\r\nSLOWING TO UNDER 8 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL\r\nIS ALSO SLOW BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE TWO MENTIONED ABOVE.  THIS\r\nDECELERATION IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF A UPPER LOW\r\nNEAR CALIFORNIA WHICH IS CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO ITS SOUTH WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE STORM.  THE 00Z AVIATION\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL NOT TOTALLY ERODE AND DORA IS\r\nTHEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOSTLY WESTWARD.  THE LBAR...BAM\r\nMODELS...AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL FASTER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLOWED DOWN JUST A LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AS SIX HOURS AGO AND THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS.  IF THE CENTER IS RIGHT UNDER THE\r\nCDO...THE INTENSITY COULD BE HIGHER.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR 82\r\nKNOTS IN 60 HOURS COMPARED TO 85 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS SIX HOURS AGO. \r\nTHIS IS BECAUSE THE PAST SIX HOUR TREND WENT FROM PLUS 10 KNOTS AT\r\n00Z TO PLUS ZERO KNOTS AT 06Z.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REACHES 85 KNOTS IN 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 14.1N 108.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 110.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.9N 112.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 15.2N 114.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 15.4N 115.8W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 15.5N 119.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON REGULAR IR IMAGES AND WE HAVE\r\nNOT RECEIVED ANY NEW MICROWAVE DATA LATELY.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO\r\nBE ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  DORA HAS SLOWED DOWN\r\nAND IS NOW MOVING 280/10.  THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO DORA'S PROXIMITY\r\nTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.   MOST OF THE MODELS\r\n...PRIMARILY THE AVN DEPENDENT...CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG REBUILD OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ONLY NOGAPS AND GFDI INDICATE A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK ASSUMING THAT BOTH AVN AND UK ARE CORRECT IN REBUILDING THE\r\nRIDGE.       \r\n\r\nDORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION AS INDICATED BY LATEST\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS.  THE GDFL GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE  \r\nBUT BECAUSE...SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL...MY FAVORITE...INSISTS\r\nON BRINGING DORA TO 81 KNOTS...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  MOST OF THE INCREASE IN INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nBY SHIPS IS ATTRIBUTED TO WARM SST AND A LITTLE TO LOW SHEAR.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 14.5N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 14.8N 110.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N 116.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 15.5N 120.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER\r\nWAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION HAS TO BE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS POSITION. IMPORTANT FOR ALL USERS PLOTTING POINT BY\r\nPOINT...IT DOES NOT MEAN THAT DORA MOVED NORTHWARD...IT IS MOVING\r\nABOUT 295/08. GLOBAL MODELS AVAILABLE AT NHC SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCURRENT WEAKENING IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL INDUCE A SLOW MOTION\r\nIN DORA IN THE SHORT TERM AND BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nREBUILD...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.    \r\n\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED A BIT BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  WATER IS WARM AND SHEAR IS LOW AND\r\nSHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW INTENSIFICATION.  THEREFORE...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 15.4N 108.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.8N 113.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N 115.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE WEAKENING IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DORA HAS INDUCED A SLOW MOTION\r\nIN DORA...CURRENT MOTION REMAINS AT 295/08.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE RIDGE TO REBUILD AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST TRACK MODELS. \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND THE\r\nGFDL FORECAST TRACK.    \r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5/4.0 FROM SAB/MIAMI.  SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS.  SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT\r\nWATER IS WARM AND SHEAR IS LOW ALONG OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 15.2N 110.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.7N 111.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 16.1N 113.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.4N 115.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.6N 117.1W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N 121.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF\r\nMOTION.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION 0F THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION EXCEPT THE SHALLOW BAM WHICH MOVES DORA SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE\r\nUKMET MODEL WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE REST.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL\r\n500 MB FORECAST SHOWS A A RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH NORTH OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nA SYMMETRIC AND COLD CDO CONTINUES.  WITH A DVORAK T NUMBER OF 4.5\r\nFROM TAFB...DORA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65 KNOT WINDS.  THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 86 KNOTS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR WITH 85 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 15.6N 111.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 16.1N 113.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.6N 115.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.8N 117.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999\r\n\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGERY...DORA CONSISTS MAINLY OF A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES.  TOPS HAVE\r\nBEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THIS IS PROBABLY A\r\nTEMPORARY FLUCTUATION.  INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KNOTS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN WITH THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE COULD YIELD A HIGHER WIND SPEED ESTIMATE...BUT THERE IS\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THIS MEASUREMENT...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER\r\nLOCATION WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO\r\nBE WEAK AHEAD OF DORA AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFAIR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/10.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN\r\nSHOWS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR 125W NORTH OF 25N GRADUALLY\r\nLIFTING OUT.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ESTABLISHED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...AND MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 15.6N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.9N 114.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.3N 116.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.7N 118.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N 120.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.5N 124.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 09 1999\r\n\r\nAN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY...AND DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE IT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER-ORGANIZED...DORA IS LIKELY TO REACH\r\nCATEGORY THREE STRENGTH LATER TODAY.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE\r\nINTENSITY LEVELLING OFF.  GIVEN OUR LACK OF SKILL IN PREDICTING\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE...I KEEP THE WINDS AT A PLATEAU OF 100 KNOTS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST...260/09.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 120W/125W GRADUALLY\r\nFILLING IN.  A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BE IN PLACE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF DORA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS MEANS THAT DORA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nPASCH \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 14.6N 116.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N 117.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 14.6N 120.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N 124.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 128.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999\r\n\r\nDORA HAS A SMALL...WELL-DEFINED EYE 5-10 N MI IN DIAMETER.  IT IS A\r\nSTRONG T5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nNOW 95 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE 27\r\nDEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK\r\nOVER THE AREA.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...WHICH\r\nWOULD MAKE DORA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE PROBABLY BY LATE TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES\r\nARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE\r\nLATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE\r\nBECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF DORA DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  SO...A CONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 14.4N 117.3W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.3N 118.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.4N 120.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.7N 122.7W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999\r\n \r\nDORA HAS A SMALL...WELL-DEFINED EYE 5-10 N MI IN DIAMETER WHICH\r\nCLOSED AND THEN RE-APPEARED EARLIER THIS EVENING. ANIMATION OF\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUD PATTERN IS OSCILLATING BETWEEN\r\n90 AND 102 KT DEPENDING ON SHORT TERM CHANGES IN THE CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY ASYMMETRIC...WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE DATA AND MODEL\r\nFORECASTS SUGGESTS THAT UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME EVEN MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE ADVISORY IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION OF\r\n265/08...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A 270\r\nDEGREE MOTION. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST. DORA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD\r\nSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH\r\nSOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE SLOWLY\r\nSTRENGTHENS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 14.5N 117.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.5N 119.2W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.6N 121.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 14.8N 122.8W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n \r\nDORA HAS NOT CHANGED A GREAT DEAL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nMAINTAINING A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE 5-10 N MI IN DIAMETER. \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 KT...BUT THE OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES OF LATE HAVE BEEN RUNNING 105-110 KT.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 105 KT.  OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS ONLY FAIR.  THIS AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT DORA MAY BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 265/8 AND THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE AVIATION MODEL HAS A\r\nPECULIAR VORTEX ANALYZED SOUTH OF DORA THAT SWINGS THE CYCLONE\r\nSOUTHWEST... AND MAY BE AFFECTING THE BAM MODELS AS WELL.  THE MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE AHEAD OF DORA IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD...AND\r\nSHOULD NUDGE THE HURRICANE GRADUALLY TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK\r\nOVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 14.3N 118.9W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.2N 120.2W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 14.4N 121.9W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 14.5N 123.8W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 126.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 131.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF DORA HAS EXPANDED AND\r\nBECOME MORE SYMMETRIC IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HRS.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 102 AND 115 KTS FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE IS YIELDING 5.7 TO 5.9 OVER THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  THUS...THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP A NOTCH TO 110 KTS FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  DORA IS LIKELY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK AT 12 HRS...115 KTS...FOLLOWED BY\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER...ALONG THE LINES OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KTS.  THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST OF DORA REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HRS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nBEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 24 HRS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES\r\nEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BAMD AND P91E.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 14.3N 119.9W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 14.4N 121.5W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 14.7N 123.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.1N 125.8W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W    90 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n \r\nDORA REMAINS A WELL-DEVELOPED HURRICANE WITH A 20 NM EYE AND GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE \r\nMAY BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED \r\nTO 115 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY...MAKING DORA A BORDERLINE CATEGORY\r\n4 HURRICANE.  THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nIS MAINTAINED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\n...270/9 KTS.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF DORA SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE AVN AND BAMD BOTH SHOW A SLIGHTLY SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION WHICH \r\nMAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE A SPURIOUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nINITIALIZED IN THE 12Z WHICH ROTATES AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF \r\nTHE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH P91E.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 14.4N 120.9W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 122.4W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 14.7N 124.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 14.9N 126.8W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 134.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n \r\nDORA REMAINS A WELL-DEVELOPED HURRICANE WITH A 16 NM WIDE EYE AND\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS PEAKING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING AT\r\n115 KT. DORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW\r\nWEAKENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DORA MAY WEAKEN EVEN LESS THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST GIVEN THE GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nFORECAST OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF DORA SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. NHC HURRICANE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nLBAR TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE UKMET MODEL WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. \r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 14.6N 122.0W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 14.7N 123.6W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.9N 125.8W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 128.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 11 1999\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF DORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THE EYE DIAMETER REMAINS 15-20 NM WITH A SOLID RING OF MINUS\r\n65 C SURROUNDING CONVECTION.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 115 KT...AND THAT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL DROPS DORA TO 95\r\nKT IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO EAGER TO\r\nWEAKEN THE STORM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  GIVEN THAT DORA IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN IN LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR MINIMAL WEAKENING OUT TO 36 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT...DORA WILL BE MOVING OVER THE PATH OF HURRICANE EUGENE...WHICH\r\nMAY HAVE MODERATED THE SSTS SOMEWHAT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/10...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   THERE IS A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN RIDGE\r\nNORTHWEST OF DORA WHICH SHOULD REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 14.6N 123.2W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.8N 124.7W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 126.9W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.3N 129.1W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 131.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 136.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 11 1999\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF DORA REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH AN EYE DIAMETER NEAR 15\r\nNM.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 115\r\nKT...AND THAT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW\r\nDECREASE BASED ON SHIPS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THE DECREASE HAS BEEN SLOWED AS THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCONTRIBUTION FROM VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR INCREASED WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK OF DORA BEING CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nSTORM... HURRICANE EUGENE... WHICH MAY HAVE MODERATED THE SSTS\r\nSOMEWHAT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DEEP LAYER MEAN WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE\r\nTRACK AFTER 48 HOURS AND SO SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT ABOVE\r\nTHAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THE TRACK HAS BEEN MOVED SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO KEEP IT CLOSER TO THE BAM DEEP.\r\n \r\nFARRELL/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 14.7N 124.4W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.9N 126.2W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 132.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.5N 135.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.5N 140.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 11 1999\r\n \r\nDORA REMAINS A WELL DEVELOPED AND SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE WITH AN EYE\r\nDIAMETER NEAR 20 NM AND A CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70C SURROUNDING\r\nTHE CENTER. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nCONTINUE AT 115 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING\r\n6.1/6.2 FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE MAINLY TO GRADUALLY \r\nCOOLING SST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...POSSIBLE ATTRIBUTABLE TO\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/12...JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AS IN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH\r\nTHE PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER-MEAN WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND SO THE FORWARD SPEED OF DORA HAS BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER\r\n36 HOURS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH P91E.\r\n \r\nFARRELL/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 14.9N 125.6W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 127.4W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 130.3W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 11 1999\r\n \r\nDORA REMAINS A WELL DEVELOPED AND SYMMETRICAL HURRICANE WITH AN EYE\r\nDIAMETER NEAR 15 NM AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -65C TO -70C\r\nSURROUNDING THE CENTER. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 127 KT...115 KT...AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY.\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN 6.2 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NUDGED UP TO 120 KT ON THIS\r\nPACKAGE. SOME OSCILLATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS DORA MOVES OVER GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/12...JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AS IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST THE DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...WITH DORA\r\nREMAINING ON A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDI...BAMM...AND P91E.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 14.9N 127.1W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.1N 129.1W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 15.3N 131.9W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 15.4N 134.9W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 138.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 12 1999\r\n \r\nSSMI IMAGERY FROM THE NAVAL RESEARCH LAB...ALONG WITH RECENT\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...SUGGESTS THAT DORA IS GOING THROUGH A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED WITH ENHANCED CONVECTION\r\nOCCURRING AT LARGER RADII.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/AFWA ARE 127/102/102 KT RESPECTIVELY.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nNUMBERS ARE DOWN A BIT TO ABOUT 115 KT.  BASED ON ALL OF THE\r\nABOVE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 115 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE AVN MAINTAINS STRONG RIDGING\r\nNORTH OF DORA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST.  THE OUTLIER IS THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR OVER\r\nTWO DAYS...A TURN WHICH HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE SO FAR.  \r\n\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES.  THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DOES NOT INCLUDE THESE EFFECTS...\r\nFORECASTS GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 85 KT OVER THREE DAYS.  THE LONGER\r\nRANGE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 130.3W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.4N 133.2W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 136.4W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 139.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 146.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 12 1999\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF DORA...20-25 NM IN DIAMETER...IS SURROUNDED BY RING \r\nOF -70C CLOUD TOPS ALTHOUGH THE RING IS NO LONGER CONTINUOUS \r\nAND APPEARS THINNER.  CURRENT DVORAK T# ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB THUS...THE INTENSITY OF 115 KT IS MAINTAINED. WHILE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE...A COMPROMISE HAS BEEN CHOSEN BETWEEN\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL...BRINGING DORA DOWN TO 90 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13 AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE AVN MAINTAINS\r\nSTRONG RIDGING NORTH OF DORA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE GFDL\r\nAND BAM MEDIUM...IN KEEPING DORA ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST. \r\nBAM DEEP WOULD BRING IT ON A TRACK FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND IN VIEW\r\nOF THE PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS NOT BEEN FOLLOWED.  THE\r\nOTHER OUTLIER IS THE UKMET...WHICH HAS BEEN FORECASTING A TURN TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST FOR OVER TWO DAYS...A TURN WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED\r\nSO FAR.\r\n \r\nFARRELL/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 15.3N 129.8W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.4N 131.9W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.6N 135.0W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.8N 138.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W    90 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 12 1999\r\n \r\nBASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES DORA HAS EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY. THE EYE OF DORA... 20 NM IN DIAMETER ...REMAINS WELL\r\nDEFINED WITH A SURROUNDING RING OF -70C CLOUD TOPS. TAFB AND SAB NOW\r\nPUT THE INTENSITY IN 6.5 WHILE OBJECTIVE-BASED ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN\r\nAVERAGING 6.1 TO 6.2 OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THEREFORE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW SET AT 120 KT. INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM\r\nENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST... NEAR 24-25C BY 72 HRS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/14. ALL OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nMAINTAIN THE MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF DORA THROUGH THE 72\r\nHOURS... RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. BAMD AND CLIPPER SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WESTWARD MOTION AND\r\nREPRESENTS A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION. THIS TRACK IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH P91E.\r\n \r\nCAMPOS/YURA/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 15.6N 131.2W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 15.9N 133.3W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.3N 136.3W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.6N 139.2W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N 142.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 148.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 12 1999\r\n\r\nDORA HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING...WITH\r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY -65C TO -70C CLOUD\r\nTOPS. THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 127\r\nKT...127 KT...AND 115 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nNUMBERS ALSO BETWEEN 127 KT AND 115 KT. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDORA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN SIX HOURS AGO WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION 275/16. THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE LARGE\r\nSCALE FORECAST...INDICATING A STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DORA\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ABOVE THE\r\nRIDGE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nIS LOOSELY CLUSTERED AROUND TWO POSSIBILITIES. THE FIRST... A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF HAWAII...IS SUPPORTED BY THE AVN...UKMET...\r\nNOGAPS...P91E...AND P91UK. THE SECOND...A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTOWARD HAWAII...IS SUPPORTED BY THE LBAR...BAMD...AND BAMM. THE GFDI\r\nIS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED\r\nBY WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHERN CLUSTER BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT DORA WILL AT LEAST\r\nSOMEWHAT RESPOND TO THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION.\r\n \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE DORA IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO\r\nGRADUALLY COOLER WATER. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...\r\nTHERE SHOULD BE ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AT FIRST. THE AVN FORECASTS\r\n20-30 KT SOUTHERLY 200 MB FLOW DEVELOPING OVER DORA BY 72 HOURS...\r\nSIMILAR TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING WITH EUGENE. SHOULD THIS\r\nVERIFY...DORA COULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST\r\nBETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 15.5N 133.1W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 15.7N 135.7W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.9N 138.9W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.2N 142.3W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 145.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 152.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...ALTHOUGH STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED EAST OF\r\nTHE EYE AT THIS TIME.  THERE ARE NO BANDING FEATURES AND THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS FAIR. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING\r\nAROUND 6.0 DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATING THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED...120 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN AS DORA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED BY SHIPS...SHIFOR...GFDL AND AVN\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nDORA IS MOVING 270/16 EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP LAYER OF\r\nEASTERLY WINDS WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF\r\nMODELS...PRIMARILY THOSE WHICH DEPEND ON THE AVN OUTPUT FIELDS\r\n...INDICATE THAT DORA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS...MAYBE A LITTLE FASTER.  ON THIS TRACK...A WEAKENING\r\nDORA SHOULD BE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 15.5N 134.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 137.2W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 15.8N 143.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 153.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE BUT THE RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED ACCORDINGLY TO 115 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN AS DORA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED BY SHIPS...SHIFOR...AND AVN MODELS.\r\n \r\nDORA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND\r\nIS NOW MOVING AT 270/18.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nSTRONG DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND\r\nIS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP.  HOWEVER...IN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS DORA SHOULD MOVE INTO A WEAKER EASTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW AND\r\nBEGIN TO SLOW DOWN. THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE WITH AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE FASTER SPEED.  ON THIS TRACK...A\r\nWEAKENING DORA SHOULD BE NEARING THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 15.5N 136.7W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 139.3W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 15.7N 142.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 145.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N 149.1W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 155.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":32,"Date":"1999-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF DORA IS BEGINNING TO FILL WITH CLOUD AND THE SURROUNDING\r\nCLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING SLOWLY.  MORE STABLE TRADE WIND CLOUD CAN BE\r\nSEEN ON SATELLITE ADVECTING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH AND WEST.\r\nWHILE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...WEAKENING IS\r\nCONTINUING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nNOW DOWN TO 110 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIFOR AND AVN MODELS AS THE STORM MOVES ON A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS 140W OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SST TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST AT 18 KT BUT WILL GRADUALLY DROP ITS\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THE TRACK HAS BEEN KEPT CLOSE TO THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS BUT THEN MORE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE BAM MEDIUM AS WEAKENING\r\nREDUCES THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER LAYER STEERING CURRENTS.  THIS WILL\r\nBRING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF THE BIG\r\nISLAND OF HAWAII IF DORA REMAINS ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFARRELL/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 15.5N 138.4W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.6N 141.0W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.8N 144.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.3N 148.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N 157.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":33,"Date":"1999-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nDORA IS WEAKENING...WITH THE EYE DISAPPEARING DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 102 KT...SO\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 100 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS DORA MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER\r\nWATER...UPPER LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL KEEPS DORA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/19. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR TO 24\r\nHOURS AGO...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DORA AND A BREAK\r\nIN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NEAR AND WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\nNHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBILITIES. THE\r\nFIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...BAMD...BAMM...AND LBAR...IS FOR A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE ISLAND OF\r\nHAWAII. THE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE P91E...P91UK...UKMET...AND\r\nBAMS...IS FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NORTHERN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF DORA WEAKENS FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST...THERE WOULD BE A GREATER CHANCE OF A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE 50 KT WINDS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE OBSERVED STORM\r\nMOTION AND WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON DORA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER. SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 15.6N 140.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N 143.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.2N 147.3W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 150.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 153.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 158.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":34,"Date":"1999-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 140900\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRAVERSES\r\nINTO COOLER WATER.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE DOWN TO 85 KNOTS. RIDGE STRENGTH NORTH OF DORA CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSTRONG AND WILL BE THE OVERWHELMING FACTOR DETERMINING ITS FUTURE\r\nPATH. ALL CURRENT MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A BIT SOUTHWARD\r\nFROM EARLIER ONES...WE HAVE ADJUSTED OUR TRACK ACCORDINGLY. ITS\r\nCURRENT MOVEMENT REMAINS DUE WESTWARD AT A RAPID 20 KTS BUT EXPECT\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY SLOW. ADDITIONALLY THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nPROJECTS SHEARING OF HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES AS DORA APPROACHES 160\r\nDEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.  MATSUDA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 15.5N 142.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.6N 146.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N 150.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.9N 154.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.7N 157.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.1N 164.5W    50 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":35,"Date":"1999-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 141500\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MOVES INTO\r\nCOOLER WATER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 70 KNOTS. THE STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM AND WILL KEEP THE PATH SOUTH OF THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PATH. ALL CURRENT MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE\r\nSTORM TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE AVIATION MODEL PROJECTS\r\nSHEARING OF THE SYSTEM FROM UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AS DORA\r\nAPPROACHES 160 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 15.6N 144.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 15.7N 146.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N 149.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N 152.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 155.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 161.0W    50 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":36,"Date":"1999-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 142100\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BUT A WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED.\r\nTHE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING THE STORM ON A\r\nWEST TRACK. LATEST MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY GROUPED AND ARE\r\nCONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STORM SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF HAWAII. THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nINDICATES SHEARING FROM UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS DORA\r\nAPPROACHES 160 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/75. A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK TO THE\r\nSOUTH HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 15.2N 146.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.2N 149.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 152.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.3N 155.6W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 159.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N 165.5W    50 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":37,"Date":"1999-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 150300\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST RATHER RAPIDLY AT 16 KT WITH\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY.  A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AFTER 24\r\nHOURS.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING THE STORM\r\nON A WEST TRACK. LATEST MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY GROUPED AND ARE\r\nCONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE STORM WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS MOVED PAST THE ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE NEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE. HABLUTZEL/ROSENDAL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 15.3N 148.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N 150.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.8N 153.9W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.4N 157.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 161.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 18.5N 166.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":38,"Date":"1999-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 150900\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA HAS REINTENSIFIED WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 90 KT\r\nAND CURRENT DROPSONDE READINGS AT 93 KT. IT CONTINUES ON A DUE\r\nWESTWARD PATH AND WITH FIRM RIDGING MAINTAINING ITSELF NORTH OF DORA\r\nAND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT EXISTING OR DEVELOPING TROUGH TO ITS\r\nWEST WILL FAVOR ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD NUDGE IN DEFERENCE TO SOME\r\nOF THE MODELS. IN TUNE WITH OUR THINKING THE BAMM AND BAMD PROJECT\r\nA MORE WESTWARD AND EVEN WESTSOUTHWARD TURN BEYOND 48 HOURS. WE WILL\r\nALSO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INCREASED STRENGTH OF DORA THRU 24 HOURS\r\nDUE TO THE NEW SST WHICH INDICATES A CONSISTENT 26 DEGREE WATER\r\nALONG DORAS PATH RATHER THAN THE EARLIER COOLER INHIBITING WATER.\r\nMATSUDA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 15.5N 149.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.6N 152.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N 156.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 159.9W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.2N 163.2W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 18.3N 169.3W    70 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":39,"Date":"1999-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 151500\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST SUN AUG 15 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE AND THE OVERALL PATTERN\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. RECONNAISSANCE DATA\r\nFROM AIR FORCE RESERVES INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES. THEREFORE...WE\r\nEXPECT THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF SOUTH\r\nPOINT ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST\r\nPOINT OF APPROACH BY 16/0600Z OR 2000 HST THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nAVIATION MODELS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT\r\nTHE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHEREFORE...WE EXPECT A CONTINUE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nTIGHTLY GROUPED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL\r\nTRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 15.5N 151.7W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N 154.3W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N 157.8W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 161.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N 164.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 18.5N 171.0W    70 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":40,"Date":"1999-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 152100\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST SUN AUG 15 1999\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND MOTION DURING THE PAST\r\nSIX HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 95 KNOTS.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA\r\nFROM AIR FORCE RESERVES INDICATE THAT GALE FORCE WINDS ON THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE ABOUT 120 NAUTICAL MILES. THEREFORE...WE\r\nEXPECT THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF SOUTH\r\nPOINT ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII WHEN THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS CLOSEST\r\nPOINT OF APPROACH BY 16/0600Z OR 2000 HST THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nAVIATION MODELS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT\r\nTHE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHEREFORE...WE EXPECT A CONTINUE MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nTIGHTLY GROUPED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL\r\nTRACKS. HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 15.7N 153.3W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N 155.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 159.2W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N 162.8W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 166.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 19.0N 172.5W    70 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":41,"Date":"1999-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 160300\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST SUN AUG 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND MOTION DURING THE PAST\r\nTWELVE HOURS. THEREFORE...WILL ONCE AGAIN KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 95\r\nKNOTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE AND RECONNAISSANCE\r\nDATA FROM AIR FORCE RESERVES CONFIRM A CONTINUED TRACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST. AS A RESULT...DORA WILL COME TO ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH\r\nTO THE BIG ISLAND...ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT...BY 2000\r\nHST THIS EVENING. \r\n \r\nAVIATION MODELS STILL MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT\r\nTHE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A\r\nMOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nCONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS.\r\n\r\nHABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 15.9N 155.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 16.1N 157.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.6N 161.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 17.1N 164.6W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 168.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 19.0N 174.5W    70 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":42,"Date":"1999-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 160900\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST SUN AUG 15 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND MOTION DURING THE PAST\r\nTWELVE HOURS. HAVE MADE THE MAX WINDS AN EVEN 100 KT AS SUPPORTED BY\r\nRECCE AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES. WILL GRADUALLY BRING WINDS BACK DOWN\r\nAS DORA LIKELY IS PEAKING AT THIS TIME. DORA IS PASSING SOUTH OF\r\nSOUTH POINT HAWAII AT THIS TIME WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON ISLANDS\r\nWEATHER EXCEPT FOR ENHANCED TRADES AND SOME HIGH SURF ALONG THE BIG\r\nISLAND SOUTHEAST FACING SHORES. TRACK WILL POINT A LITTLE NORTH OF\r\nJOHNSTON ATOLL AND ON TOWARD THE DATELINE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nCONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS.\r\n \r\nROSENDAL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 15.9N 156.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.3N 158.9W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 16.9N 162.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 17.4N 165.6W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 169.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 19.0N 175.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":43,"Date":"1999-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 161500\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST MON AUG 16 1999\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nMAX WINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 90 KT. THE EYE HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED\r\nAND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISTORTED AS IF SHEARING\r\nIS GOING ON. THE MOVEMENT IS STRAIGHT WESTERLY OR PERHAPS A HAIR\r\nSOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS WILL BRING THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ONE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREMENT AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO MOTION AND\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n \r\nROSENDAL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 15.7N 158.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 15.9N 161.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 16.4N 164.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 16.8N 167.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N 171.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 176.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":44,"Date":"1999-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 162100\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST MON AUG 16 1999\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE OF HURRICANE DORA BRIEFLY REAPPEARED IN SATELLITE\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY...THE SLOW WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS. LATEST ANIMATION SHOWS A CONTINUED\r\nWEST MOVEMENT. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREMENT AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS.\r\nTHE MAIN CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE IMPACT ON JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE \r\nCURRENT TRACK WILL STILL MOVE THE SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF JOHNSTON\r\nISLAND. HOWEVER...KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT\r\nERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nHABLUTZEL\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 15.5N 160.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.6N 162.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 165.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 16.7N 169.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.2N 172.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 179.0W    55 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":45,"Date":"1999-08-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 180300\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST MON AUG 16 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DORA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\nCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY IS 4.5...77 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 80 KNOTS. LATEST ANIMATION SHOWS A\r\nCONTINUED WEST MOVEMENT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. THE MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nARE TIGHTLY PACKED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL PLACE THE STORM JUST\r\nSOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND BETWEEN 30 AND 36 HOURS. ISLAND. HOWEVER...\r\nKEEP IN MIND THAT THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK\r\nAND INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nHABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 15.6N 161.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 15.9N 164.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 16.4N 167.9W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 171.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 175.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 178.5E    55 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":46,"Date":"1999-08-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 170900\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST MON AUG 16 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DORA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY PUT AT 75 KT. A SLOW FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED\r\nAND THEN HELD STEADY AT 65 KT AS IT REACHES THE DATELINE AND BECOMES\r\nA TYPHOON. NEXT TARGET AFTER JOHNSTON...PERHAPS WAKE ISLAND? \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/17. HAVE KEPT THE PREDICTED PATH A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nINCLUDING THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nROSENDAL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 15.6N 163.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.8N 166.3W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.9N 170.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N 174.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N 177.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 176.5E    65 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":47,"Date":"1999-08-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 171500\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST TUE AUG 17 1999\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A STEADY 15 TO 20 KT PACE. THE PATH SEEMS\r\nTHE WORST POSSIBLE WITH RESPECT TO JOHNSTON ATOLL HOWEVER THE STORM\r\nIS A MINIMAL HURRICANE WITH RECCE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 78 KT.  OUR\r\nINITIAL WINDS KEPT AT 75 KT. THE FAST NEARLY 20 KT MOVEMENT WILL\r\nRESULT IN A SUDDEN AND POWERFUL SWELL/SURF SURGE AT JOHNSTON. OUR\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL AND THE INTENSITY IS ALSO\r\nKEPT UP ACCORDING TO THAT MODEL'S ESTIMATES. INITIAL MOTION VECTOR\r\n270/17KT.\r\n \r\nROSENDAL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 15.5N 165.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.6N 168.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N 172.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N 175.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 178.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 176.5E    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":48,"Date":"1999-08-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 172100\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST TUE AUG 17 1999\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES STILL CLASSIFY THE STORM AS A HURRICANE...BUT IS GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENING. THE CURRENT TRACK BRINGS DORA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF\r\nAPPROACH TO JOHNSTON ISLAND BY 2000 HST/0600Z AT WHICH TIME IT WILL\r\nBE APPROXIMATELY 70 NAUTICAL MILES/80 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH.\r\nTHE CONTINUED MOVEMENT NEAR 16 KT WILL RESULT IN A SUDDEN AND\r\nPOWERFUL SWELL/SURF SURGE AT JOHNSTON.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/16. ALL BUT ONE OF THE MODELS ARE CLOSELY\r\nGROUPED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE.\r\n\r\nHABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 15.5N 166.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.6N 169.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.9N 172.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 176.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 180.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 173.0E    60 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":49,"Date":"1999-08-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 180300\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST TUE AUG 17 1999\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE\r\nSTORM IS BECOMING ELONGATED AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF UPPER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAKENING CONTINUES...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL CLASSIFY THE STORM AS A HURRICANE. THE\r\nCURRENT TRACK BRINGS DORA AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO\r\nJOHNSTON ISLAND BY 2000 HST/0600Z AT WHICH TIME IT WILL BE\r\nAPPROXIMATELY 60 NAUTICAL MILES/70 STATUTE MILES TO THE SOUTH.\r\nLATEST REPORTS FROM THE ARC...AUTOMATIC REMOTE COLLECTOR...ON\r\nJOHNTSTON ISLAND HAS NOT SHOWN ANY INCREASE IN WIND AS OF 2 PM\r\nHST...BUT PRESSURES HAVE BEGUN TO FALL. THE CONTINUED MOVEMENT\r\nNEAR 17 KT WILL RESULT IN A SUDDEN AND POWERFUL SWELL/SURF SURGE AT\r\nJOHNSTON.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/17. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nBAMD...DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL.\r\n \r\nHABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 15.6N 168.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 171.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N 174.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.2N 178.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 178.0E    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 171.0E    50 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":50,"Date":"1999-08-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 180900\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST TUE AUG 17 1999\r\n \r\nDORA PASSED SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ATOLL AT ABOUT 06Z MOVING WEST TOWARD\r\nTHE DATELINE. THE STORM CENTER WAS FAR ENOUGH FROM JOHNSTON TO SPARE\r\nTHE ATOLL FROM ANY DAMAGING WIND OR SURF. THE SURF LIKELY WAS THE\r\nMOST SEVERE ASPECT OF THIS STORM. HOWEVER THE SURF BREAKS ON THE\r\nREEF FAR AWAY FROM INHABITED AREAS. THUS DORA'S EFFECTS ON JOHNSTON\r\nWERE MILD AS COMPARED TO HURRICANE JOHN OF 1994.  DORA REMAINS\r\nRATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME AND BARELY QUALIFIES AS A HURRICANE. THERE\r\nIS STILL A CHANCE IT COULD REINTENSIFY BUT LIKELY NOT DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO.  INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17 KT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO GFDL AND THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\n \r\nROSENDAL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 15.6N 170.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.8N 172.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 176.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 16.3N 179.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 176.0E    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 170.0E    50 KTS\r\n \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":52,"Date":"1999-08-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 182100\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST WED AUG 18 1999\r\n \r\nDORA IS NOW EXPECTED TO CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES MAINTAIN TROPICAL NUMBERS OF\r\n4.0...WHICH EQUATES TO 65 KNOTS. LATEST AVIATION MODELS MAINTAIN A\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE MOVING IN A\r\nGENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT NORTH\r\nCOMPONENT. THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS FAIRLY\r\nCONSTANT. AS A RESULT...DORA WILL BE A HURRICANE/TYPHOON FOR THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/19. THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE P91E...WHICH IS THE PACIFIC\r\nVERSION OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL FOR THE ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nHABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 16.4N 174.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N 177.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.4N 179.4E    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.2N 176.6E    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N 174.0E    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 169.0E    65 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":53,"Date":"1999-08-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 190300\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST WED AUG 18 1999\r\n \r\nMODELS ALL BEND DORAS TRACK GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME.\r\nTHIS PROJECTION APPEARS REASONABLE SYNOPTICALLY AS IT APPROACHES\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF IT AND SOME SOFTENING OF THE LOWER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE PATH HAS ALREADY SHOWED ITS INITIAL\r\nNORTHWARD BIAS TODAY AFTER ITS EXTENSIVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD MOVE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL PATH IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMIC MODELS. ADDITIONALLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER IS SHOWN WEST OF\r\nTHE DATELINE AND WILL INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN HOUR 72.\r\nMATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 16.7N 176.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N 178.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.8N 178.3E    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N 175.6E    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.9N 173.2E    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.3N 169.7E    60 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":54,"Date":"1999-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 080900\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST WED AUG 18 1999\r\n\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE DORA A GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.\r\nTHIS PROJECTION HAS BEEN CONSIST AND SEEMS REASONABLE AS IT STARTS\r\nAPPROACHING AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FURTHER WEST. THE PATH HAS\r\nALREADY SHOWED A VERY GRADUAL MOVEMENT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS WESTWARD MOVE. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY APPEARS TO\r\nSHOW SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF DORA AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL PATH IS\r\nALMOST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS WHICH ALSO MEANS IT IS\r\nJUST SOUTH OF THE MORE DYNAMIC MODELS. SLIGHTLY LOWER WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DATELINE SHOULD INDICATE A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING BY HOUR 72.\r\nKAWAMOTO\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 16.8N 177.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.2N 179.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N 178.1E    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.2N 175.7E    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.8N 173.6E    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 25.4N 169.5E    60 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":55,"Date":"1999-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 191500\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO GIVE DORA A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH ITS APPROACH TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.\r\nTHE MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS GRADUALLY BECOME WEST\r\nNORTHWEST AND IS FORECAST TO TURN EVEN MORE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS. THE FOREWARD MOVEMENT HAS ALSO SLOWED SLIGHTLY OVER\r\nTHIS PERIOD. THE MODEL TRACKS ARE WITHIN A RELATIVELY NARROW\r\nRANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK RUNS RIGHT IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF ALL THE MODELS. COOLER WATERS AWAITS FURTHER WEST AND\r\nTHUS WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF WEAKENING IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\nKAWAMOTO\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 17.4N 178.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 179.9E    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N 177.8E    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 175.8E    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.9N 174.1E    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 26.6N 171.1E    55 KTS\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":56,"Date":"1999-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 192100\r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM BOTH SAB AND PHNL KEEP DORA\r\nAS A MINIMAL HURRICANE SOON TO BE TYPHOON. MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\nDIFFER WITH SHFR SLOWLY WEAKENING AND GFDL INTENSIFYING DORA. SEEING\r\nAS DORA IS HEADED TOWARDS WARMER SSTS...WILL KEEP DORA AT 65 KNOTS.\r\nSHEARING DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A PROBLEM AT PRESENT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 WHICH IS SLOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THE\r\nOBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED TURNING DORA TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST TOWARD LOWER PRESSURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE PACK AND IS CLOSEST TO BAMM AND BAMD. SINCE DORA WILL\r\nBE CLOSE TO THE DATELINE AT 00Z...CPHC WILL WRITE THE 00Z FORECAST\r\nAND JTWC WILL WRITE THE 06Z FORECAST. CRAIG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 17.5N 179.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 179.0E    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.1N 176.9E    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.6N 174.6E    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 22.4N 172.4E    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 26.7N 168.0E    65 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":57,"Date":"1999-08-20 01:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHNL 200300\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM PST THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND PHNL INDICATE THAT\r\nDORA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. MODEL\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH SHIFOR SLOWLY WEAKENING\r\nAND GFDL SLOWLY INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM. DORA CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nTOWARDS WARMER WATER...SO RATHER THAN FORECAST DORAS DEMISE...WILL \r\nKEEP IT A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT DORA WAS FARTHER WEST THAN\r\nEXPECTED...THEREBY MAKING THE 1800Z POSITION A BIT TOO FAR TO THE\r\nEAST. THE INITIAL MOTION OF 290/15 READJUSTS THE SPEED BUT NOT THE\r\nDIRECTION OF MOTION. THE POSITION ESTIMATE WAS BASED ON A FAIRLY\r\nWELL-DEFINED LLCC. OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED\r\nTURNING DORA TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS LOWER PRESSURE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND IS CLOSEST TO THE THREE\r\nBETA ADVECTION MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST DISCUSSION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. THE NEXT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER.\r\nOTHER INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE FROM THE JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL\r\nAGENCY. CRAIG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 18.3N 178.7E    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N 176.3E    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 173.6E    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 171.2E    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 25.2N 168.9E    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 29.5N 165.0E    55 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-08-06 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nHAS RAPIDLY INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS\r\nFORMED.  THE DEPRESSION IS DEVELOPING GOOD BANDING AND IS NEAR\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO LIMITED HISTORY BUT IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 280/7.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1700Z 12.3N 121.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 12.4N 121.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 12.8N 123.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 13.4N 124.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 13.8N 125.9W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 14.0N 129.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON\r\nFOLLOWING ITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 30 KT...BUT BOTH WOULD BE HIGHER\r\nIF NOT CONSTRAINED BY CLASSIFICATION RULES.  ALTHOUGH SMALL AND\r\nSOMEWHAT ELONGATED...THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING GOOD OUTER BANDS...AND\r\nIS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EUGENE IN THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 285/5...BUT WITH MORE THAN THE\r\nUSUAL UNCERTAINTY.  MID-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN/CIMSS SHOW A LARGE RIDGE AHEAD OF EUGENE THAT SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE SPEED TO MORE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS EUGENE TO ABOUT 55 KT...\r\nBUT THIS IS BASED ON THE LBAR TRACK WHICH IS OVER SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  EVEN SO...THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAHEAD OF THE STORM DOES NOT LOOK ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE THAT EUGENE WILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 12.7N 121.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 12.9N 122.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 13.3N 123.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 13.8N 124.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N 126.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 14.0N 130.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM EUGENE HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND\r\nTHE T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL...USING THE OFFICIAL TRACK AS INPUT...NOW BRINGS\r\nEUGENE TO A 65 KNOT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.  AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM DOES NOT LOOK\r\nESPECIALLY FAVORABLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE\r\nTHAT EUGENE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 295/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nPREVIOUS.  MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES STORM WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nSLOWLY TURNS TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nGENERAL SCENARIO.\r\n \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 13.2N 122.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.6N 123.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 14.2N 124.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 14.7N 126.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 128.1W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 131.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n \r\nTHE IR CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE DISTORTED TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN THE SAME AS SIX HOURS AGO.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AND THE FORECAST IS TO 60\r\nKNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL GOES A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER BUT THE LACK OF APPARENT RECENT STRENGTHENING IS THE BASIS\r\nFOR CONSERVATISM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08.  THE STORM IS NEARING THE\r\nLONGITUDE OF MAXIMUM WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND ALL OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE NOGAPS SHOWS A MOSTLY WESTWARD ACCELERATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOTION INCREASES TO\r\nABOUT 10 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS WHICH IS MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 13.3N 123.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 13.7N 124.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.1N 125.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 14.6N 127.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 15.0N 129.1W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 15.5N 132.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  AS IN THE CASE OF DORA...GFDL WEAKENS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHEN IT...BUT ONLY TO 64\r\nKNOTS. INTENSIFICATION IS MAINLY DUE TO LOW SHEAR AND WARM\r\nWATERS...ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS OUTPUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nBRINGS EUGENE TO 60 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/08.  ALL MODELS EXCEPT\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH MAINTAINS EUGENE MEANDERING... SUGGEST A WEST AND\r\nEVEN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.  THIS MOTION IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE\r\nA DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM\r\nINDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE\r\nMODELS AND CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 13.7N 124.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 14.0N 125.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N 127.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 128.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 130.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 15.0N 134.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSYSTEM GIVING THE APPEARANCE OF THE FORMATION OF A BANDING TYPE EYE.\r\nIF THE TREND CONTINUES...EUGENE MAY INTENSIFY FASTER THAN \r\nANTICIPATED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME AND A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  THIS BASED ON SHIPS\r\nMODEL...AND THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR AND WARM SST. HOWEVER...\r\nRELATIVELY STABLE AIR IS ALONG THE FUTURE PATH OF THE STORM.  THIS\r\nIS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL NOTION IS 285/09.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF EUGENE...THEREFORE A TRACK MORE TO WEST\r\nIS EXPECTED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 14.0N 124.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 14.4N 126.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 14.8N 127.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 15.5N 132.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 1999\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION...36-HOUR FORECAST LATITUDE IS 15.6N.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND MIAMI ARE BOTH 3.5.  THUS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL...AND THIS\r\nRELATIVELY COMPACT STORM MAY MAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF EUGENE...THEREFORE A TRACK MORE TO WEST\r\nIS EXPECTED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 14.5N 125.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 127.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.5N 129.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 15.6N 131.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 15.6N 133.4W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 15.5N 137.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A\r\nWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE STORM IS\r\nSTEERED BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWITHIN THE LAST HOUR SOME COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE STORM BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT THE\r\nSAME FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 55 KNOTS\r\nAND THE FORECAST ALSO REMAINS THE SAME...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 14.5N 126.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 14.8N 128.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.3N 129.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 15.4N 131.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 138.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 1999\r\n\r\nTHE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH\r\nMORE BANDING FEATURES ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  HOWEVER DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nREMAIN AT 3.5 AT THIS TIME...SO CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55\r\nKNOTS.  EUGENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...WHICH IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER MARGINAL OCEAN\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS ABOUT 285/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THEREFORE A MAINLY\r\nWESTWARD MOVEMENT IS INDICATED.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL\r\nLBAR...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT FAST.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 14.7N 127.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 129.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.3N 131.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 15.5N 135.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 139.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 09 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A STRONG RIDGE HOLDING\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASED\r\nON THIS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND MOTION IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nWITH A WELL DEFINED SMALL EYE FEATURE ON INFRARED IMAGERY...DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO 90 KNOTS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THIS VALUE...THE SAME STRENGTH\r\nAS DORA AND AS THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE 260 DEGREE HEADING WILL KEEP\r\nEUGENE OVER FAIRLY WARM SSTS AND THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO 100\r\nKNOTS IN 12 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS FORECAST MODEL AND EARLIER\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFARRELL/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 14.2N 131.9W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.0N 133.4W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 14.0N 135.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.0N 138.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 14.2N 140.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 15.5N 145.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL         \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A STRONG RIDGE HOLDING\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THE GFDL AS WELL AS THE DEEP AND\r\nMEDIUM BAM MOVE THE STORM NORTH OF WEST AFTER 48 HOURS...AS EUGENE\r\nNEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS THUS BEEN BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nWITH A WELL DEFINED SMALL EYE FEATURE ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATING\r\nA STRONG T5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CURRENT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 95 KNOTS. THE FORECAST HEADING OF 270 DEGREES WILL KEEP\r\nEUGENE OVER FAIRLY WARM SSTS AND THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO 100\r\nKNOTS IN 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFARRELL/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 14.0N 132.9W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.0N 134.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.0N 137.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 14.5N 142.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.5N 146.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 09 1999\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF EUGENE HAS DISAPPEARED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS STOPPED. THIS IS RATHER PUZZLING\r\nGIVEN THAT THE STORM HAS COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS AND GOOD CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 90...102...AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 95 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSINCE THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR EUGENE TO BE WEAKENING\r\nYET...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING\r\nUPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLER WATER SHOULD\r\nCAUSE EUGENE TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. EUGENE SHOULD TRACK\r\nWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HOURS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 14.1N 134.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.1N 135.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.2N 138.3W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 14.6N 140.9W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 147.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n \r\nEUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH A MODEST REORGANIZATION OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER SHIFTING\r\nSOUTHWARD.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE SOME\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE THAT HAS HALTED THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST\r\nCONVECTION AGAIN FORMING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 95 KT UNTIL A LONGER TERM TREND BECOMES\r\nMORE EVIDENT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/10.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION.  EUGENE SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD FOR 24-36 HOURS\r\nSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  AS\r\nEUGENE NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THERE MAY BE SOME DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 13.5N 134.9W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 13.4N 136.5W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 13.4N 138.7W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 13.7N 140.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 14.2N 143.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n \r\nEUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED THIS MORNING AS THE EYE FEATURE\r\nDISAPPEARED AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST SLIPPED SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nFROM THE STORM CENTER. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDENSE OVERCAST HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY WILL HELP\r\nCLARIFY CENTER LOCATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY\r\nBE SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE THAT HAS RESULTED IN THIS\r\nDISPLACEMENT AND ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING. CONVECTION IS STILL FORMING\r\nIN BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER HOWEVER AND THIS REMAINS A STRONG STORM\r\nWITH 85 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/12...A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  WITH THE INITIAL AND PAST POSITIONS RELOCATED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED BACK A\r\nBIT TOWARD THE NORTH.  BUT WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING FORECAST BY\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE TO MOVEMENT OVER COOLER WATER... LATER\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO A SLIGHTLY LESS NORTHWESTERLY ANGLE.\r\nEUGENE SHOULD TRACK WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HOURS SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD \r\nA BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  AS EUGENE MOVES\r\nCLOSER TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DEEP LAYER WINDS BECOME MORE\r\nDISORGANIZED AND SOME SLACKENING IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFARRELL/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 13.7N 136.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 13.7N 138.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 143.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 145.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CDO COVER AND STRENGTH INTO THE AFTERNOON\r\nAS A RESULT OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  VISIBLE AND IR\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY BOTH SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS\r\nUNDERNEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH THE BANDING POINTING\r\nTOWARD THE CURRENT POSITION. INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 85 KTS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH\r\n72 HRS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS MAINTAINED AT 270/12...A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR ANOTHER\r\n12 HOURS...THEN TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE \r\nTHROUGH 48 HRS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK BENDS BACK TO THE LEFT...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH CLIPER.  EUGENE WILL CROSS 140W WITHIN 24 HRS...\r\nENTERING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTERS AREA OF\r\nRESPONSIBILITY.  \r\n\r\nFARRELL/GUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 13.8N 137.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 14.3N 142.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 144.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 150.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 10 1999\r\n\r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IRREGULAR CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.\r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT...77 KT...AND 90\r\nKT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nTHUS REMAINS AT 85 KT.\r\n\r\nALL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE LBAR...IS CLUSTERED AROUND A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE AVN AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS INDICATE AN MID/UPPER LEVEL BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF EUGENE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS STRONG. THIS INTRODUCES\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE STORM WILL TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOR CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES\r\nAND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAMD.\r\n \r\nTHE SOMEWHAT RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS EUGENE IS CURRENTLY\r\nSUFFERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. THE AVN AND NOGAPS BUILD AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...SUGGESTING THAT SHEAR\r\nSHOULD STAY LIGHT TO MODERATE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\nADDITIONALLY...SSTS COOL ONLY BY 1-2C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER WEAKENING OF EUGENE WILL BE SLOW.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH EUGENE REMAINING A\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 13.7N 138.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 13.8N 140.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.3N 142.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 14.9N 144.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 147.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 11 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED ON EUGENE AND ARE NOW 77\r\nAND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION\r\nIS NOW EAST OF THE PRESUMED CENTER...PROMPTING SAB TO USE THE SHEAR\r\nPATTERN IN ITS CLASSIFICATION.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75\r\nKT.  WITH LOW SHEAR FORECAST AND SUFFICIENT SSTS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK PRESENTS SOMETHING OF A CHALLENGE.  ALL THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF EUGENE...WITH THE\r\nECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF HAWAII. \r\nTHE AVN SHOWS A WEAKNESS NEAR THE ISLANDS...AND THE NOGAPS EXTENDS\r\nTHE RIDGE MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST.  WHICH OF THESE VERIFIES GREATLY\r\nDETERMINES THE THREAT OF EUGENE TO HAWAII.  ANOTHER FACTOR IS HOW\r\nQUICKLY EUGENE SPINS DOWN.  A STRONGER STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH\r\nTHE DEEP LAYER FLOW AND TRACK CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...WHILE IF\r\nEUGENE WEAKENS FASTER THAN FORECAST...IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS SET OF MODEL RUNS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED\r\nSOUTH AS WELL...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV JET AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY IN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT OF HURRICANE EUGENE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO HELP\r\nPROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING CURRENTS.\r\n\r\nWITH EUGENE CROSSING PAST 140 DEGREES LONGITUDE...RESPONSIBILITY FOR\r\nFUTURE ADVISORIES NOW PASSES TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 13.7N 139.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 13.7N 141.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.1N 143.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 14.7N 146.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 148.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 152.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 111430\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST WED AUG 11 1999\r\n\r\nEUGENE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING THE PAST 6 HOURS...LOSING MOST OF ITS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION THEN HAVING THE DEEP CONVECTION WRAP ONCE AGAIN\r\nAROUND THE EAST AND NORTH FLANKS OF THE LLCC. INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS EUGENE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR WHICH IS HAMPERING ANY STRENGTHENING. THE MODEST SHEARING PLUS\r\nMARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR\r\nA SLOW WEAKENING OF EUGENE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS STILL AT 75 KT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. THE FORECAST MORE OR LESS KEEPS EUGENE ON\r\nA SLIGHTLY NORTH OF A DUE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE BAMD\r\nGUIDANCE IS CLOSEST TO THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE\r\nAIDS ARE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LBAR...ARE TIGHTLY GROUPED. LBAR\r\nTAKE EUGENE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK. CRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 13.9N 141.3W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.2N 143.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.6N 145.9W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N 148.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.5N 151.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.1N 156.2W    55 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":22,"Date":"1999-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 112100\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST WED AUG 11 1999\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS AGAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION\r\nCENTER. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY REMAINS AT 4.5 AND...THEREFORE...THE\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KNOTS. ALL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE LBAR...WHICH STILL TAKES THE STORM ON A NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK. EUGENE IS IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS\r\nPREVENTING ANY STRENGTHENING. WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 14.0N 142.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.3N 143.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.7N 146.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 148.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 151.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 157.0W    50 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":23,"Date":"1999-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 110300\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST WED AUG 11 1999\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE CONTINUES ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TRACK AND\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST NORTHWEST MOVEMENT\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT\r\nCONVECTION IS AGAIN GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF DECAY AFTER A MORNING\r\nPEAK. WHETHER THIS ACTUALLY MEANS EUGENE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN\r\nFURTHER IS UNCERTAIN. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR OVER EUGENE IS NOT\r\nSIGNIFICANT AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE 26 DEG CELSIUS\r\nISOTHERM UNTIL SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED WEST OF 150W.\r\nAS A RESULT EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONLY SLOWLY.\r\n\r\nCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...T3.5/4.0 FROM SAB AND T4.0/4.5\r\nFROM THE CPHC. LARSON\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 14.1N 143.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.2N 144.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 146.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 149.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N 151.7W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 157.7W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":24,"Date":"1999-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 120830\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST WED AUG 11 1999\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO COME AND GO AND THERE HAS BEEN\r\nNO DISCERNABLE EYE FOR QUITE AWHILE...EUGENE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF\r\nWEAKENING. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR NOTICED ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY IS NOT ENOUGH TO WORK ON EUGENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTHEREFORE KEEPS EUGENE AT 70 TO 75 KT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND\r\nBEGINS THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS THEREAFTER. SHIPS DATA SAYS THAT\r\nIT WONT BE UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS THAT EUGENE SEES SLIGHTLY LOWER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nAN EXTENSION OF THE LAST FORECAST...MOVING EUGENE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF\r\nDUE WEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO BE\r\nTIGHTLY GROUPED WITH EVEN LBAR JOINING THE OTHERS. THE ONLY OUTLIER\r\nIS GFDL WHICH TURNS EUGENE TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK FAVORING BAMD. CRAIG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 14.3N 144.3W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N 146.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 148.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.4N 151.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.6N 153.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N 159.5W    55 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":25,"Date":"1999-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 121430\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST THU AUG 12 1999\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF EUGENE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT\r\nOVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE LAST TWO SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nSHOW SOME WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT EUGENE IS   \r\nMORE SYMETRICAL WITH THE COLDEST TOPS MORE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM. AN EYE CONTINUES TO HIDE FROM THE SATELLITE CAMERA HOWEVER.\r\nSINCE IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEARING IS MINIMAL...WILL HOLD OFF\r\nON WEAKENING EUGENE UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS AS SEAS SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE LAST FORECAST...MOVING EUGENE ON A WEST\r\nNORTHWEST THEN WEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS\r\nCONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY GROUPED EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH DROPS\r\nEUGENE OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PUTS EUGENE IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GROUP AND CLOSEST TO BAMD. CRAIG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 14.7N 145.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N 147.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.6N 149.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 152.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.2N 154.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.6N 160.2W    55 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":26,"Date":"1999-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 122100\r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST THU AUG 12 1999\r\n\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVES LOCATED THE STORM\r\nSLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AS A RESULT...THE\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH. SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SMALLER AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nREDUCED TO 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. PROGS SHOW LIGHT SHEARING AHEAD OF\r\nTHE STORM. AS A RESULT...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH SHFR...STATISTICAL HURRICANE FORECAST...MODEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTAKES EUGENE 240 MILES SOUTH OF HILO OR 185 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH\r\nPOINT BY 0800 HST SATURDAY MORNING. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO\r\nBE TIGHTLY GROUPED...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...WHICH STEERS EUGENE OFF\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PUTS EUGENE CLOSEST TO\r\nLBAR...LIMITED BAROTROPIC...AND BAMD...DEEP BETA ADVECTION MODEL.\r\nHABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 14.9N 146.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 15.2N 147.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.7N 150.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 152.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.2N 155.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 161.0W    45 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":27,"Date":"1999-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 130300\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST THU AUG 12 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVES SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS NOW HEADING DUE WEST.\r\nALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTION...THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nNOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND THE SYSTEM HAS NOW BEEN DOWNGRADED\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM. PROGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SHEARING AHEAD OF THE\r\nSTORM.  AS A RESULT...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTAKES EUGENE 250 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII\r\nBY 1400 HST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUE TO\r\nBE TIGHTLY GROUPED IN KEEPING THE STORM SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS. HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 14.7N 147.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 149.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.9N 151.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.1N 154.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 15.2N 156.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 161.0W    35 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":28,"Date":"1999-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 130900\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST THU AUG 12 1999\r\n\r\nALTHO CONVECTION HAS COVERED THE CENTER FROM SATELLITE VIEW\r\nAIR RECCE INDICATES A WELL DEFINED CENTER. EUGENE IS NOW IN A\r\nCONSISTENTLY DUE WESTWARD TRACK. CONCENSUS OF ALL MODELS\r\nAGREE WITH SUCH A MOVEMENT...RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS IS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED NORTH OF EUGENE WITH NO SIGNS OF DECAYING BY\r\nFUTURE TROUGHING. BOTH LIMITED CONVECTION AND A PATH TOWARD\r\nGRADUALLY COOLER WATER AGREE WITH SHIFORS WEAKENING TREND.  MATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 14.7N 148.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.8N 150.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 152.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 15.1N 155.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 15.3N 157.9W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 163.6W    35 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":29,"Date":"1999-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 131500\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nMOST DYNAMIC MODELS PROJECT AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT\r\nLED BY LBAR AND GFDL. HOWEVER WE WILL MAINTAIN A MORE CONSERVATIVE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL PATH... NEARLY STRAIGHT WESTWARD. RIDGING NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM ALTHO WEAKENING WILL STILL REMAIN FIRM AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD\r\nKEEPING THE ISLANDS OUT OF HARMS WAY. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nOBSCURE THE CENTER OF EUGENE BUT AIRCRAFT RECON ADDS CONFIDENCE\r\nTO THE STORMS LOCATION. ALTHO HI LEVEL SHEARING IS VIRTUALLY\r\nNONEXISTENT A TRACK THRU SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER STILL FAVORS A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  MATSUDA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 14.7N 150.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.7N 151.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.7N 154.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N 157.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.7N 160.9W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 14.7N 167.0W    35 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":30,"Date":"1999-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 132100\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nMODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN CONTINUING EUGENE ON A WESTERLY TRACK.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHEAR PATTERN AND A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION. LATEST RECONNAISSANCE FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVES CONFIRM THE WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/14...INDICATING AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nMOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY WITH POSITION ADJUSTMENTS MADE FOR THE INCREASED FORWARD\r\nMOTION. HABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 15.0N 151.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.2N 153.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.3N 156.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 159.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 162.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N 168.5W    35 KTS\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":31,"Date":"1999-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 140300\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n\r\nLATEST AIR FORCE RESERVES RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMS THAT EUGENE IS\r\nCONTINUING ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BETTER VIEW OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nON ITS PRESENT TRACK...THE STORM WILL BE WITHIN 290 MILES SOUTH OF\r\nSOUTH POINT ON THE ISLAND OF HAWAII WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD BE NO STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT APPROACHES\r\nJOHNSTON ISLAND.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. MOST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE\r\nMOVEMENT OF THE STORM AND KEEPING IT AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 14.7N 152.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.8N 154.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 14.9N 157.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 160.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 164.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N 170.0W    30 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":32,"Date":"1999-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 140900\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND IS MOVING STRAIGHT WESTWARD AT 14\r\nKTS. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO GUIDE IT\r\nON A WESTWARD PATH...ALSO THE MODEL BOUQUET IS NARROWLY DISPERSED\r\nAND IN AGREEMENT. EUGENE WILL BE MOVING INTO A HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR ONCE IT NEARS 160 DEGREE WEST LONGITUDE AND SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nDESPITE THE PATHS RETURN TO WARMER WATER.  MATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 14.6N 154.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 156.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.5N 159.8W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 14.6N 163.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 14.7N 166.2W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 15.4N 172.0W    30 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":33,"Date":"1999-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 141500\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST. STRONG\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EUGENE WILL KEEP THE STORM ON A WESTWARD\r\nTRACK. EUGENE WILL BE MOVING INTO A HIGH LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR ONCE\r\nIT NEARS 160 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/12. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nHABLUTZEL .\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 14.6N 155.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 156.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.4N 159.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.3N 161.6W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 164.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 170.0W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":34,"Date":"1999-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 142100\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. IMAGERY ANIMATION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 260/15. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nHABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 13.7N 157.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 13.4N 159.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.1N 162.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.1N 165.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N 168.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N 174.0W    25 KTS\r\n  \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eugene","Adv":35,"Date":"1999-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 150300\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. IMAGERY ANIMATION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS... STRENGTHENING IS\r\nNOT LIKELY AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWINDS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 260/15. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nHABLUTZEL/ROSENDAL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 13.1N 158.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 12.8N 159.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.8N 162.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 12.7N 165.1W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 13.0N 168.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 13.5N 173.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eugene","Adv":36,"Date":"1999-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 150900\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD ENOUGH INTO BOTH WARM 27 DEGREE\r\nWATER AND INTO A NONSHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BOTH SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN\r\nITS CIRCULATION PATTERN. THUS WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH\r\nUNTIL EITHER DISSIPATION OR POSSIBLE REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\nWE WILL DISMISS A FURTHER SOUTHWESTWARD CONTINUANCE AND MAINTAIN OUR\r\nPREVIOUS MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  MATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 12.7N 159.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.6N 161.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N 164.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 12.4N 166.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 12.9N 169.8W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 13.3N 176.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eugene","Adv":37,"Date":"1999-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 151500\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST SUN AUG 15 1999\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST. GRADUAL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 260/12. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL. HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 12.1N 160.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 11.6N 162.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 11.3N 165.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.6N 168.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 12.0N 171.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 13.0N 177.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eugene","Adv":38,"Date":"1999-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA43 PHNL 152100\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST SUN AUG 15 1999\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. HABLUTZEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 11.9N 162.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 11.6N 165.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WAS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS GOTTEN BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  A WELL DEFINE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nEVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WIND SPEEDS COMPUTED FROM\r\nSEVERAL OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS GIVE VALUES THAT RANGE FROM\r\n20 TO ALMOST 30 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN PERSISTING ON THE WESTERN SIDE.  T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED\r\nAND ARE NOW 2.0 FROM BOTH SAB AND MIAMI.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nDISTURBANCE IS UP-GRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION UNTIL IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST...AT WHICH TIME IT SHOULD TAKE MORE OF A\r\nWESTERLY DIRECTION SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSORS.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS DEVELOP THE SYSTEM RATHER SLOWLY.  PART OF\r\nTHIS MAY BE DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS CAUSED BY THE UP-WELLING\r\nFROM THE PASSAGE OF EUGENE AND DORA AS WELL AS A MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT LEFT IN THEIR WAKE.   \r\n  \r\nJARVINEN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 14.5N 117.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 119.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.6N 121.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 123.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 125.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 130.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 13 1999\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED...TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION NINE-E HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. MOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE TURNS THE\r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS UNDER A DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH THE ONLY QUESTION THE LATITUDE AT\r\nWHICH THE TURN WILL OCCUR. THE NOGAPS OFFERS A ALTERNATE\r\nSCENARIO...WITH A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DIGGING FAR\r\nENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO BREAK THE RIDGE AND MOVE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nCIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CONVECTION...\r\nWHICH IS DISPLACED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THIS\r\nSUGGESTS EASTERLY SHEAR. THE AVN AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY\r\nDECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED\r\nGAINING WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER WATER. THE SHEAR IS\r\nLIKELY TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF A LARGE SYSTEM AND COOLER WATER IS LIKELY TO SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THUS...THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 14.9N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.4N 120.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.9N 122.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N 124.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.5N 127.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 131.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT NINE-E EXCEPT THAT IT IS A SHEARED\r\nDEPRESSION WITH A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE SHAPELESS AND WEAKENING CONVECTION.  IN FACT...THE MID-LEVEL\r\nROTATION IS WELL DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS.   FIXES FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES ARE VERY SCATTERED WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR DISORGANIZED\r\nSYSTEMS.  I INHERIT AN INTENSITY FORECAST...BASED ON SHIPS AND\r\nSHIFOR MODELS...WHICH INDICATES A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THERE IS\r\nNO REASON TO CHANGE IT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BOTH GFDL AND AVN\r\nMODELS WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS 290/08 AND\r\nWITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WITH\r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH MOVES THE DEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY.   \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 15.0N 119.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 122.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.3N 124.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 127.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N 132.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nDEPRESSION NINE-E CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...BASED ON SHIPS AND SHIFOR MODELS...REMAINS MUCH THE SAME\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS...SHOWING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED NOW THAT VISIBLE PICTURES\r\nARE AVAILABLE.  THE LATEST POSITION FOR THE DEPRESSION SHOWS THAT IT\r\nHAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW AT 280/3.  THIS SLOWING MAY INDICATE THE TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST...AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE\r\nSYSTEM ALMOST DUE WEST AND MOVES IT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 14.8N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.9N 119.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 121.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 122.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 127.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nDEPRESSION NINE-E CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  IN\r\nORDER TO ESCAPE THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR THE SYSTEM MUST\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE NORTH OR WEST.  HOWEVER...GOING NORTH WILL MOVE IT\r\nOVER COOLER SSTS.  FOR THE WEST DIRECTION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS FIELD WRAPPING AROUND ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDE\r\nOF THE SYSTEM AND ANY MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WILL ENTRAIN THIS\r\nSTABLE AIR.  IN FACT...SOME MAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN ENTRAINED. \r\nTHUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BE DISSIPATED IN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE NOW 1.5 FROM SAB/MIAMI/GLOBAL AND MAXIMUM MEASURED LOW\r\nLEVEL CLOUD ELEMENTS ARE MOVING ABOUT 20 KTS.  THUS...OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM IN THIS DIRECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 15.0N 119.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.2N 120.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 14 1999\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE LOCATED\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE EAST-WEST RIDGE ALONG 25 DEGREES\r\nNORTH LATITUDE OR SO...AS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB\r\nANALYSIS AND FORECAST.  THE 18Z MODEL RUN WAS NOT AVAILABLE.  BASED\r\nON THE GUIDANCE...THE GENERAL MOTION OF 290/03 IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOOKING RATHER WEAK ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE\r\nONLY DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND IS LOCATED OVER A SMALL\r\nAREA TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  ALSO THE STABLE AIR OVER THE COOLER\r\nSSTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 15.6N 120.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N 121.2W    20 KTS DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.2N 122.4W    20 KTS DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N 123.7W    20 KTS DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-08-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 17 1999\r\n \r\nA 06Z SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR\r\n13N114W SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 75\r\nNM FROM THE CENTER. THERE IS ABUNDANT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nINITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE BEING 295/7.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE PERSISTING THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nRIDGE WILL PROBABLY BE WEAKER THAN THE RIDGE SEEN WHEN DORA FORMED\r\nIN THIS AREA...IMPLYING A SLOWER MOTION. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS\r\nCLUSTERED AROUND A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH PERHAPS A\r\nLITTLE MORE WESTERLY MOTION AFTER 48 HR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE ON THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM AND BAMD.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE AVN...\r\nSHIPS...AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO PERSIST FOR 24 HOURS\r\nAND THEN DECREASE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY FASTER\r\nDEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER\r\nBY 72 HOURS...WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLOWING THE PACE OF\r\nDEVELOPMENT AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 12.9N 114.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 13.4N 115.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N 116.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 14.7N 118.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 120.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 124.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 17 1999\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS SLOWLY DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH STRONG CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. GIVEN THE SHEARED APPEARANCE AND THE\r\nUPCOMING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM...THE SYSTEM WILL STAY A\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nPREVIOUS BELIEVED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION 295/10. AVN MODEL BASED\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...WHICH TURN THE\r\nDEPRESSION EAST TO NORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE\r\nTO THESE MODELS RESPONDING TO A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AVN GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN DECREASE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY FASTER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASES. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD AGAIN SLOW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nGRADUALLY COOLER WATER AFTER 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM MAY\r\nINTENSIFY FASTER THAN FORECAST WHEN THE SHEAR DECREASES. \r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 13.6N 115.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 117.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 118.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.5N 120.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 122.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 17 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  THE SAB FIX IS 75 N MI\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF TAFB AND THE AFWA FIX IS EVEN FARTHER NORTH.  THE\r\nUNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/11...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE 18Z TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nMOVE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE.  BUT THE 12Z\r\nUKMET SHOWS AN EASTWARD MOTION AND THE 12Z NOGAPS SHOWS A SLOW NORTH\r\nTO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS NOT AVAILABLE. \r\nGIVEN THIS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nTURNS THE SYSTEM WESTWARD BUT SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO 5 KT AFTER\r\n48 HOURS.  THIS IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB AND\r\nAFWA.  THIS IS BASED ON AN IMPRESSIVE COLD CDO LOCATED WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS NOT UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nON THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE APPARENT POORLY DEFINED CENTER.  THE\r\nFORECAST WIND SPEED IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING\r\nFOR A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.  THIS\r\nIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH SHOWS A VERTICAL SHEAR OF\r\n23 KT REDUCING TO 10 KT IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 14.3N 116.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N 118.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.7N 120.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.1N 121.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 18 1999\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE WITH MULTI-CHANNEL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST\r\nON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS CONFIRMED\r\nBY 85GHZ DATA FROM THE LATEST TRMM SATELLITE PASS.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGW ARE ALL 35 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nFERNANDA.\r\n \r\nUSING THE TRMM POSITION ESTIMATE AND THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 295/15 KT.  THIS REPRESENTS A 4 KT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. SOME OF THE\r\nDYNAMIC-BASED GUIDANCE IS STILL DIVERSE WITH NOGAPS BRINGING THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTH AND DISSIPATING IT BY 36 HRS WHILE THE UKMET MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 HRS BEFORE MAKING A SHARP LEFT TURN\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. IN BOTH INSTANCES EACH MODEL FAVORS THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SYSTEM NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 24 HRS WITH A MORE WESTERLY HEADING THEREAFTER. THE PRIMARY\r\nDIFFERENCES LIE IN THE FORWARD MOTION WITH THE GFDL BEING THE\r\nSLOWEST OF WHILE LBAR AND P91E THE FASTEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CLIPER AND P91E ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY SLOWER\r\n...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\n15-20 KT EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXTENDS TO NEAR\r\n125W N OF 12N. THE LATEST AVAILABLE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS\r\nTHIS FAIRLY WELL AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH TO NEAR \r\n10 KT BY 36 HRS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nGRADUALLY COOLER WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH FERNANDA FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY\r\n72 HRS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. \r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 15.2N 118.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N 120.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.6N 122.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 16.9N 123.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 17.2N 125.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 127.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 18 1999\r\n\r\nWHILE FERNANDA REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...THE CENTER HAS\r\nDISAPPEARED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSINCE CONVECTION HAS SPREAD OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED CENTER...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS AGAIN BECOME UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n295/11...WHICH IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION. THE AVN BASED GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nGFDL INDICATE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION...WHILE THE\r\nUKMET AND THE NOGAPS DRASTICALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM OR TURN IT BACK TO\r\nTHE EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES...\r\nINDICATING A SLOWING OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CONTINUE TO\r\nINDICATE 15-20 KT EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR\r\nFERNANDA. THIS IS ABOUT A 15 KT DECREASE FROM YESTERDAY. THE AVN AND\r\nSHIPS MODELS FORECAST A FURTHER DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nALLOW A FASTER DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND\r\nBRINGS FERNANDA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATER WHICH IS LIKELY TO\r\nSTOP INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 15.6N 119.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.6N 122.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.1N 123.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 125.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 128.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-08-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 18 1999\r\n \r\nWHILE FERNANDA REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...THE SHEAR HAS\r\nDECREASED TO THE POINT WHERE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. WHILE THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHICH ARE THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS TRACK THAN 6 HOURS AGO...AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ARE\r\nNOW INDICATING A SLOW WESTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW INDICATE\r\nINDICATE 15 KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR FERNANDA. WITH THE\r\nAVN AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECASTING A FURTHER DECREASE IN THE\r\nSHEAR...FERNANDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS\r\nAND BRINGS FERNANDA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKLEY AFTER 48 HOURS AS SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nDECREASE TO LESS THAN 25C.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 15.8N 120.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.4N 121.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 123.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 126.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 133.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-08-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 18 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO\r\nA STRONG CLUSTER TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN ABOUT 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. FERNANDA HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE REACHING COOL WATER IN 36 HOURS OR SO. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT A\r\nGRADUAL TURN MORE TO WEST SHOULD BEGIN IN 36 HOURS AS A STRONG MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FERNANDA\r\nSHOULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 16.2N 121.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.7N 122.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.0N 125.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 127.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 129.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nFERNANDA...BUT THIS CONVECTION IS NEITHER SYMMETRIC NOR IS IT\r\nORGANIZED IN WELL DEFINED BANDS.  THE CENTER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nVERY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nNEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nIS 45 KNOTS...IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS.  OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR GUIDANCE.  SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DUE TO FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS ALOFT...ALTHOUGH THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR ONLY\r\nMARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL INDICATES SOME WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE WEATHER AGENCY...TAFB...AND SAB...YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 290/10.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA...SO A CONTINUED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED.  CURRENT TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 16.9N 121.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.4N 123.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 125.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 127.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 134.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT A\r\n55-KNOT MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...THE ORGANIZATION\r\nAND EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THE STORM\r\nIS HEADED FOR MARGINAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES.  THEREFORE NO FURTHER\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMOTION REMAINS 290/10.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS GENERALLY SHOW A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL...WHICH SHOWS A STRENGTHENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FERNANDA.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 17.3N 122.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.8N 124.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.3N 126.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.8N 128.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 135.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE IS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST...BUT\r\nOUTFLOW IS WEAK OR NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS SUGGESTS\r\nSOME EASTERLY SHEARING.  DEEPER CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY OVER THE\r\nWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE...AND IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED. \r\nNONETHELESS...DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINTENSITY SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME...SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF\r\nFERNANDA...AND MARGINAL OCEAN TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE FIXES ARE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OVERNIGHT POSITION\r\nESTIMATES...SO THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK\r\nIS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM-DEPTH BAM TRACK...AND IS ALSO\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A\r\nLARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 17.0N 123.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.4N 125.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 127.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N 136.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 19 1999\r\n \r\nFERNANDA APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW ON A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING TREND. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nDUE TO SHEAR.   INITIAL INTENSTY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE NEITHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OR SHEAR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO VARY MUCH...ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED AND VISIBLE...IT HAS BEEN BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n270/06.  A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THAN IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES.  THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW TO MID\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS. AS FERNANDA BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING ITS WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE.\r\n\r\nLARSON/AVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 16.7N 123.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 124.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 131.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\n...BUT WITH ONLY MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 40 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE TRACK IS\r\nBETWEEN 25 AND 26C...BUT COULD BECOME A LITTLE WARMER IF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nCENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA WILL ALLOW THE GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE.  SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHES THE ANTICYCLONE.  FORECAST TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nMOST MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 16.5N 124.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 127.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 129.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 131.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 136.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\nCORRECTI0N...ADD AUTHORS NAME\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THIS IS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A WELL DEVELOPED 500 NB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nFERNANDA...AS SEEN IN THE 48 HOUR FORECAST OF THE 06Z AVIATION\r\nMODEL.   THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nWITH SOME ACCELERATION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nBASED ON THE SOUTHWESTWARD SIGNAL MENTIONED ABOVE.\r\n\r\nA SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE AFWA ESTIMATE IS\r\nLESS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 35 KTS.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK KEEPS THE STORM OVER WARM SSTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW...SO THIS SYSTEM COULD\r\nPERSIST FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WEAKENING THE STORM TO A\r\nDEPRESSION AT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 16.5N 125.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 126.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.4N 127.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.2N 129.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N 131.6W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 135.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER AND THE STORM\r\nHAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE MOVING 255/07.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION FOR 72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG\r\nANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THE GFDL...UKMET\r\n...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ALL SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE REST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n\r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AND CONTINUES TO BE\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED IN SIX HOURS AND RECENT SSM/I WIND SPEED\r\nESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS SUGGEST HIGHER WIND SPEEDS UNDER THE\r\nCONVECTIVE AREA.  SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING ONLY SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN SUGGESTS\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KNOTS WIND RADII ARE DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON 14-15Z SSM/I\r\nWIND SPEED ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 16.0N 125.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.7N 127.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.3N 128.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.9N 129.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 14.6N 131.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 134.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 1999\r\n \r\nFERNANDA HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A CLUSTER OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH FERNANDA IS\r\nBEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...THERE MAY\r\nSTILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN TRANSIENT\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n \r\nFERNANDA IS EXPECETD TO MOVE ON THE SAME GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nTRACK ABOUT 7 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED BY\r\nBAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO REINTENSIFY BUT IF IT MOVES SOUTH\r\nENOUGH...IT WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND REGENERATION MAY\r\nOCCUR.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 15.7N 126.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 127.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 134.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nFERNANDA HAS LOST ALL BUT SPORADIC DEEP CONVECTION AND IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 30 KNOTS. THE 30 KNOT\r\nWINDS ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS INITIALLY 255/9. THIS WEST SOUTHWEST MOTION INDUCED BY THE\r\nPREVAILING TRADE WINDS BRINGS FERNANDA INTO SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS\r\nTHAT MAY ENCOURAGE PERIODIC FLAREUPS OF CONVECTION. THE CHANCE OF\r\nFERNANDA REGENERATING IS HOWEVER SLIGHT BUT ITS WELL-DEFINED LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SOME TIME.\r\n\r\nLARSON/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 15.6N 127.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.2N 129.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.6N 130.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 132.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N 134.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 14.0N 138.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWITH OCCASIONAL FLARE-UPS OF CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  LOW\r\nTO MID LEVEL STEERING SHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST TO PERSIST.  THIS MOTION WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER SO IT WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO\r\nDISSIPATE.  THIS FORECAST BASICALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 15.4N 128.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 129.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.7N 131.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 133.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 135.1W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 138.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nFERNANDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A WELL DEFINED\r\nLOW-TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PERSISTS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO\r\nPERSIST.  THIS MOTION WILL KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER RELATIVELY\r\nWARM WATER...BUT EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TO OCCUR.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 14.8N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.4N 130.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.0N 131.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N 132.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 134.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 137.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":19,"Date":"1999-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 1999\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. FERNANDA IS CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT\r\n8 KNOTS...INITIAL MOTION 255/8...AND IS BEING STEERED BY THE\r\nPREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW OVER RELATIVELY WARM 26 TO 27 DEGREE\r\nCELSIUS WATERS. ITS CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE STILL\r\nOCCURING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE FORECAST HOWEVER\r\nASSUMES THAT FERNANDA WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN RATHER THAN\r\nREGENERATING.\r\n\r\nLARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 14.6N 129.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 131.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 132.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 135.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 138.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":20,"Date":"1999-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS APPARENTLY SLOWED DOWN AND THE CONVECTION IS\r\nCOMING BACK.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR WILL SLOW ANY REDEVELOPMENT\r\nALTHOUGH SSTS ARE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.  SHIPS FORECAST MODEL\r\nWANTS TO TAKE SYSTEM BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY ARE 30 KNOTS OUT TO 72 HOURS\r\n\r\nSEVERAL OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A SLOWER MOTION AND\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THIS IS OCCURRING.  INITIAL MOTION IS REDUCED TO\r\n250/4.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL ALSO SLOWS THE MOTION AND IS SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.   \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 14.4N 130.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 131.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N 131.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 132.9W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.0N 134.1W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 14.0N 137.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":21,"Date":"1999-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 1999\r\n \r\nFERNANDA CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT\r\nCONVECTION. WINDS ARE STILL 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND A WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND\r\nWEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 14.2N 130.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 131.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NOW\r\nHAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED\r\nAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.  THIS MORNING CONVECTION INCREASED\r\nAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BECAME MORE COHERENT.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCLOSE TO COLD WATER AND CONVECTION IS ALREADY DECREASING...SO I\r\nEXPECT THE DEPRESSION TO BE SHORT-LIVED.\r\n\r\nINITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN AS THE CENTER IS\r\nHARD TO FIND...BUT THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 315/3.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nTAKES THE DEPRESSION AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE SHALLOW BAM. \r\nGIVEN THE TRACK AND COLD SSTS...NO WARNINGS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY AT\r\nTHIS TIME.     \r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 21.4N 111.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 21.6N 112.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.9N 112.6W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.4N 113.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z ...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS BEEN RELOCATED\r\nFURTHER NORTH AND IS NOW ABOUT 150 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS POSITION PLACES IT CLOSE TO THE 24 DEGREE\r\nCELSIUS ISOTHERM AND ITS CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL RAPIDLY\r\nTAKE IT OVER COLDER WATERS. CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS\r\nDECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS NOW MAINLY TO\r\nTHE SOUTH. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST 12\r\nHOURS WITH WEAKENING THEREAFTER AND DISSIPATION AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT\r\nLOCATION BASED ON CLOSER AGREEMENT OF SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB AND GWC. THE MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK INTO COLDER WATER. THE NEW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH\r\nAND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH MAY EQUATE TO AN EVEN\r\nFASTER DEMISE OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nLARSON\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 22.9N 112.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 23.4N 113.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 119.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING WITH\r\nLIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON THE DECLINE IN BOTH\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE...AND WITH COOLER SSTS AHEAD AND THE CURRENT CLOUD\r\nPATTERN NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE-BASED FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGW ARE IN CLOSER\r\nAGREEMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY EVENING AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 300/07 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HRS...\r\nIN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMM ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLY SLOWER. THE\r\nFORECAST BEGINS TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 36 HRS AS IT ENCOUNTERS\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...NEAR 22C.\r\n\r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 23.3N 113.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 23.7N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 24.2N 115.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.4N 116.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS BEING REDUCED TO 25 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE.  GIVEN\r\nTHE COOL SSTS AND THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN NO STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS DRIFTED...MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 260/2.  MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nSUBTANTIAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A RESULT OF A\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANALYZED IN THE AVN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  I WILL GO WITH A SLOWER WESTWARD DRIFT UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 22.6N 113.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.5N 113.4W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 114.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 1999\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL OVER COOL WATER. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/4.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION TODAY AND GIVEN THE SSTS...NONE IS ANTICIPATED.  THIS\r\nWILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE DEPRESSION UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST OVER THE\r\nNEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS WHILE IT DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 21.9N 113.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.7N 114.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 21.6N 115.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 116.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-09-05 16:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n9 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE MONSOON-TYPE DISTURBANCE THAT HAS PERSISTED OFF THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nABOUT 50 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...SO ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED\r\nON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 340/06.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nWITH LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STARTS WITH A SLOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION THAT TURNS MORE NORTHWEST IN TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING AND GOOD OUTFLOW...AND\r\nTHUS COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST WITH THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTHENING AND PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE AREA\r\nBETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES...AS WELL AS FOR THE ISLAS\r\nMARIAS. THE CYCLONE COULD THREATEN OTHER PARTS OF THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST... INCLUDING BAJA CALIFORNIA...OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1600Z 18.7N 105.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.7N 105.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 20.7N 106.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 21.5N 107.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 22.5N 108.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N 111.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 05 1999\r\n \r\nSHIP 3EJO6 ABOUT 90 NM FROM THE CENTER REPORTED 230/42 KT AND A\r\n1006.5 MB PRESSURE. THIS...COMBINED WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...MEANS THAT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM GREG.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE A RIDGE OVER MEXICO TO THE NORTHEAST OF GREG AND AN\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO FOLLOW A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS THEN GRADUALLY BEND WESTWARD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL BASED GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG\r\nTHE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD\r\nINTRODUCE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.\r\n \r\nGREG CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW. STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. AFTER THAT TIME...STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTAKES GREG OVER COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD STOP\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE STRENGTHENING AND PROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST...\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA BETWEEN LAZARO\r\nCARDENAS AND CABO CORRIENTES...AS WELL AS FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS. THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD THREATEN OTHER PARTS OF THE MEXICAN COAST...INCLUDING\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 19.2N 105.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.9N 105.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.5N 106.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.3N 106.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 110.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 05 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nTURN THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...THEN WEST OVER THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS...EXCEPT THE LBAR WHICH STAYS NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS WAS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND MOVES THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 50 NMI OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nTIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED\r\nFOR BAJA.\r\n\r\nIN THE PAST TWO HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A TREMENDOUS BURSTING CDO\r\nWITH VERY COLD TOPS...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 35\r\nAND 45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT FORECAST TO 50 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS AND TO 65\r\nKNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  IF THIS VERY RECENT CDO PERSISTS...GREG COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 20.4N 106.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N 107.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 21.9N 108.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.2N 110.6W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n\r\nTHE BURSTING PATTERN CONTINUES ON IR IMAGERY...BUT THERE IS LITTLE\r\nEVIDENCE OF BANDING.  CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\n45 KNOTS.  SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS REASONABLY\r\nFAVORABLE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER PASSES BY\r\nCABO SAN LUCAS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED BUT THE HEADING NOW APPEARS TO BE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER THIS MAY NOT COME\r\nSOON ENOUGH TO AVERT LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 21.0N 106.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 21.9N 107.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 22.6N 109.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 23.3N 111.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 23.8N 112.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n \r\nGREG IS NEARING HURRCIANE STRENGTH. THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS\r\nINDICATES AN EYE FORMING...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 55-60 KT AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE MAXIMUM\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS ARE SET TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND GREG WILL\r\nLIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...IF IT IS NOT ONE\r\nALREADY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO THE 12 HOUR MOTION OF 300/9...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SHORT TERM MOTION MAY BE MORE WESTERLY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST\r\nMEXICO AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N124W. THE MEXICAN RIDGE\r\nFAVORS A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE NHC\r\nGUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHFITED SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND THE MORE\r\nWESTERLY MOTION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD CAUSE A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nTRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...GREG WILL BE WEAKENING\r\nOVER COLD WATER BY THAT TIME...SO THE LOW MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN\r\nEFFECT.\r\n \r\nGREG CONTINUES TO HAVE STRONG CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW...SO\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATER...WHICH\r\nSTARTS AT ABOUT 110W. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...WIND RADII...AND THE\r\nINHERENT UNCERTAINIES IN BOTH.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 21.2N 108.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.9N 109.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 22.7N 110.9W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 23.3N 112.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO GREG\r\nIS UPGRADED TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE. AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYE HAS BEEN\r\nPRESENT ON THE LOS CABOS RADAR DURING THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS GIVING THE APPEARANCE OF BEING SHEARED. THERE IS NO\r\nOUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST SIDE...AND SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD LINES\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE EYE ARE EXPOSED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST\r\nLESS THAN 20 KT OF SHEAR...SO THE RAGGED APPEARANCE IS A BIT\r\nPUZZLING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nINTENSIFICATION BEFORE GREG HITS COOLER WATER...FOLLOWED BY STEADY\r\nWEAKENING. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC AT TIMES...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 305/6. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED FROM SIX HOURS\r\nAGO...WITH RIDGING OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO NORTH OF GREG AND AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW NEAR 29N125W. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A CONTINUED WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE\r\nIS QUITE DIVERSE...WITH FORECASTS RANGING FROM STRAIGHT NORTHWEST TO\r\nA TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE SPEEDS ARE ALSO DIVERSE...WITH THE\r\nGFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET..AND AVN BEING VERY SLOW AND THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE BEING FASTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHERE IT IS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nSOUTH. IT IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF BOTH\r\nDIRECTION AND SPEED.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 21.7N 108.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 22.2N 109.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 22.8N 110.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 23.2N 111.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 113.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 06 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07.  THIS BRINGS THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IN 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nINDICATE MOTIONS RANGING BETWEEN WEST AND NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST TURNS THE HURRICANE WESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS AND BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND IS MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BUT LOS CABOS RADAR\r\nSHOWS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED EYE...EXCEPT IT IS OPEN TO THE NORTH. \r\nGREG IS APPROACHING COLD SSTS AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF ITS\r\nCIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COLD WATER.  SO THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS UP TO 70 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS\r\nBUT EVEN THIS IS NOT LIKELY.\r\n\r\nIF THE STRONG WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD MISS THE WORST OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.  SO FAR THE WINDS AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO HAVE ONLY BEEN UP\r\nTO 12 KNOTS.  THIS WILL BE RESOLVED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 22.1N 109.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 22.7N 110.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 23.2N 111.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 23.6N 112.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 114.1W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT...AND LATEST RADAR IMAGES FROM\r\nLOS CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS NOT YET PASSED THE LONGITUDE\r\nOF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE EYEWALL APPEARS OPEN ON\r\nTHE NORTHERN SIDE...SO STRONGEST WEATHER EFFECTS ARE ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE EYE AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF\r\nCONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ROTATING AROUND TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE\r\nCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IF THIS OCCURS...CONDITIONS IN\r\nTHE CABO SAN LUCAS AREA COULD WORSEN. \r\n\r\nGREG IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AS IT WAS ON\r\nMONDAY..WITH LESS DEEP CONVECTION AS WELL.  BUT THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nSTILL GIVES A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.  NOT FAR TO\r\nTHE WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THEREFORE ONCE THE CENTER MOVES A FEW DEGREES\r\nFARTHER WESTWARD...GREG WILL ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. A\r\nLARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF 25N AND WEST OF 120W COULD\r\nCAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THIS LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD WITH TIME\r\nAND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE RESPONDING MORE TO LOWER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC STEERING IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 22.3N 109.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 22.9N 110.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 23.3N 111.9W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.6N 113.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N 114.3W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE GREG IS...AT BEST...BARELY A\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM A CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTER...\r\nINDICATING MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...\r\nGREG WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HOUR MOTION OF 315/4...ALTHOUGH RECENT\r\nSATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A MORE NORTHERLY SHORT TERM MOTION. A WELL\r\nDEFINED ANTICYCLONE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS...ALTHOUGH AS SEEN\r\nYESTERDAY...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE 72 HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOINTS BETWEEN A NORTHWEST MOTION AND A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE NORTH EARLY ON DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION.\r\n\r\nSHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON GREG...AND THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR THE\r\nSOUTH END OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT... IT WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATER. THE COMBINATION OF THE THREE\r\nEVENTS SHOULD PRODUCE WEAKENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS.\r\n\r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 22.6N 109.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 23.0N 110.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N 111.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 112.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GREG HAS DECREASED AND BECOME VERY\r\nDISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN JOSE DEL CABO HAVE SHOWN WINDS OF LESS\r\nTHAN TROPICAL STORM FORCE AND A LOWEST PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1003 MB.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO 55\r\nKT AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY. GREG IS THUS DOWNGRADED TO A 50 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nGREG MOVED ALMOST DUE NORTH FOR A TIME TODAY...BUT HAS NOW TAKEN A\r\nCOURSE OF 330/4. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GREG\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWEST UNDER THE MEXICAN RIDGE...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS AND LOW LEVEL\r\nSTEERING BECOMES DOMINANT.\r\n\r\nSTRONG SHEAR HAS CAUSED GREG TO WEAKEN UP TO NOW...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATER AFTER CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TWO\r\nNEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GREG TO BE DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS. THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE IT COULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST HERE.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 23.0N 109.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 23.4N 110.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 23.9N 111.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N 114.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 24.5N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 07 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT GREG CONTINUES TO\r\nWEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED UNDER A SMALL AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. DATA FROM THE AREA AND SHIP WVDG CLEARLY DEFINE THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND LOCATION OF GREG WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS. \r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WERE REPORTED EARLIER FROM THE SOUTHERN\r\nTIP OF BAJA.  \r\n \r\nGREG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS AND THIS TRACK IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... AS INDICATED BY MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOL\r\nWATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AT MUCH FASTER RATE AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY SHIFOR.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 23.2N 110.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 23.6N 111.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N 112.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 24.2N 114.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 08 1999\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND CURRENT DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. \r\nTHE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR AND COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO\r\nCONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE\r\nDISSIPATION STAGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  SINCE GREG IS LIKELY TO\r\nBE STEERED BY SHALLOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG\r\nTRAJECTORY SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.  THIS IS FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH/WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS DISCONTINUED.  MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE\r\nPOTENTIAL IMPACT OF LARGE WAVES...THE WATCH/WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC\r\nCOAST OF BAJA IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 23.3N 111.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 112.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N 113.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 24.2N 115.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 08 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 35 AND 30\r\nKT...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING.  WITHOUT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY I AM RELUCTANT TO DROP GREG TO A DEPRESSION...BUT I EXPECT\r\nTO BE ABLE TO DO SO THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF SHEAR\r\nAND COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nSATELLITE LOCATION ESTIMATES WERE ABOUT 45 NM APART THIS MORNING SO\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.  MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/5.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n\r\nMAINLY BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF LARGE WAVES...THE\r\nWATCH/WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW. \r\nIF GREG IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON THEN THE\r\nWARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 22.9N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N 112.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 23.1N 113.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.4N 115.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 25.0N 119.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 08 1999\r\n\r\nGREG HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW A SWIRL\r\nOF LOW-MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PERSISTS\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM.  MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WELL-REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CENTER...ABOUT 80NM TO THE WEST.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS 30 KTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 36 HRS. HOWEVER...IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION \r\nRE-DEVELOPS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT THE SYSTEM MAY BE ENDED EARLIER THAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT GREG HAS\r\nBECOME STATIONARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HRS BEFORE DISSIPATION\r\n...AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE UKMI AND BAMS.  THIS\r\nTRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nAS OF 11 AM PDT...1800Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO DISCONTINUED \r\nALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LAST PUBLIC\r\nADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. LARGE WAVES AND HEAVY\r\nSURF SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST TODAY \r\nAND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 22.8N 111.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N 112.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N 114.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 08 1999\r\n \r\nGREG CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPOTS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION CLOUD WIND VECTORS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE\r\nABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND RADAR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE THAT\r\nSHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL.  \r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO PRODUCING INTERMITTENT CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTS TOWARD COOL\r\nWATERS.  IT WILL PROBABLY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED BY THURSDAY\r\nMORNING. \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 23.1N 111.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 23.3N 112.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 09 1999\r\n\r\nGREG CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH A FEW\r\nSPORADIC CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE...COOL WATERS AND EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nCONTINUE WEAKENING.  GREG SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  THAT\r\nGENERAL MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 23.2N 112.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 23.5N 112.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 23.7N 113.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N 114.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 09 1999\r\n \r\nGREG CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH A FEW\r\nSPORADIC CONVECTIVE CELLS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE...COOL WATERS AND EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nCONTINUE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A WESTERLY DRIFT.  THIS\r\nGENERAL MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON GREG.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 23.2N 112.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.4N 113.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 23.8N 114.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.0N 115.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-09-17 16:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n9 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nMUCH CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND BETTER DEFINED. IN\r\nADDITION...SHIPS IN THE AREA INDICATE THAT PRESSURES ARE LOW ENOUGH\r\nTO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE OCEAN IS WARM\r\nBUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWE DO NOT HAVE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION BUT BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS 295/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE UK MODEL AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH FROM THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST THAT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.\r\n  \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1600Z 16.2N 109.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 109.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN A FORMATIVE STAGE AND IT DOES NOT HAVE A\r\nWELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nBUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/05. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW A SLOW WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE ENSEMBLE. \r\n\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 16.1N 109.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 110.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS STILL TRYING TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT IT IS NEARING THE THRESHOLD OF STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER...BUT BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION\r\nOF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THE\r\nRATHER SLOW RATE OF DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN RATHER SLOW THUS FAR.  SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIMILAR\r\nTO THE SHIPS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND...THE MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS\r\nUNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A BIT\r\nFASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUN SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH\r\nSOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  IF THIS TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH...IT COULD PULL THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MY TRACK.  THIS REMAINS TO BE SEEN.   \r\n\r\nPASCH \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 16.6N 110.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 111.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 18.3N 113.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 114.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 116.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n \r\nPROBLEMS PROBLEMS! 06Z SATELLITE LOCATION FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nCAME IN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. A 0140Z\r\nTRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHERLY POSITION...BUT IS VERY\r\nAMBIGUOUS ON THE LONGITUDE. THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION IS VERY\r\nUNCERTAIN. WHILE IT IS A BAD IDEA TO RE-LOCATED A PARTLY EXPOSED\r\nCENTER BASED ON INFRARED IMAGERY...AN EXTRAPOLATED POSITION FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY DOES NOT SEEM TO FIT THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT WELL.\r\nTHUS...SOME ADJUSTMENT IS NECESSARY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF\r\nSOME RE-LOCATION IS NECESSARY WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES\r\nAVAILABLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\n295/3. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nLARGE SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AS AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS SOUTHWEST FROM CALIFORNIA. INTERESTINGLY\r\nENOUGH...NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT\r\nNORTHWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPING TROUGH. INSTEAD...IT\r\nCALLS FOR A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. WITH ALL THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY SOME SOUTHWARD SHIFT FOR THE CURRENT\r\nLOCATION.\r\n\r\nONE POSSIBLE PROBLEM WITH LOCATING THE CENTER IS THAT IT MAY BE\r\nTRYING TO MOVE UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. A STRONG AND\r\nPERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH TOPS TO -80C...IS WEST OR\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR PATTERN INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE DECREASING...\r\nAND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nBEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 16.2N 110.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.3N 110.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N 111.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.2N 112.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\n...ALTHOUGH STILL ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST...IS LOCATED UNDER THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS ORGANIZED ENOUGH ON EARLY VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS\r\nTIME. A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THOROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n295/06.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT THE TREND IS A GENERAL\r\nTRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST.  ONLY THE UK MODEL MOVES\r\nHILARY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 111.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 112.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY PRIMARILY\r\nON SSMI IMAGES. SATELLITE WIND ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS AND ONLY A\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n300/06.  MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. HALF OF THE MODELS TAKE\r\nHILARY WESTWARD AND THE OTHER HALF TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFDL\r\nMOVES HILARY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS BASED ON A DEEPENING TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nHILARY FROM THE NORTHWEST.  \r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 16.5N 112.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.9N 113.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N 116.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N 117.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT HILARY HAS SLOWED\r\nDOWN A BIT AND HAS TURNED TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COURSE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/5 KT. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO SHOWS A NORTHWEST HEADING AND\r\nAND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OWING TO\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST UKMET.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT\r\n...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  THE LATEST\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE COOLING IN\r\nVICINITY OF THE CENTER. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE\r\nTHE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 16.9N 112.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N 112.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N 113.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.1N 114.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN HILARY OVER THE PAST 6 HRS.\r\nTHE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH STARTED AROUND\r\n02Z HAS PERSISTED ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE\r\nLAST HOUR OR SO.  THE MOST RECENT TRMM 85GHZ DATA SHOWED A PARTIAL\r\nEYEWALL.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 45 KT\r\nWHILE SAB AND AFGW ARE BOTH 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nHELD AT 50 KT. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT HILARY HAS CONTINUED\r\nON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY HEADING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 325/6 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE\r\nNHC TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL MODEL P91E...\r\nALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS \r\nA SLIGHT RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE SYSTEM\r\nPOSES NO THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 17.5N 112.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.2N 113.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 19.2N 113.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.1N 114.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N 116.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES SHOW A MOTION TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES...340/8.  THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS THAT HILARY WILL BE STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL NOT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BAJA TO WARRANT A WATCH\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE OUT TO 55 KNOTS.  THERE\r\nIS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HILARY TO STRENGTHEN. \r\nHOWEVER THE MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL BRING HILARY OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER SOON...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 19.4N 113.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 20.3N 113.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 116.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CORRESPONDING TO 65\r\nKNOTS.  A BANDING-TYPE EYE FEATURE IS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES.  THUS HILARY IS BEING UPGRADED AND IT IS THE\r\nSIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON.  SINCE MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO\r\nBEGIN VERY SOON.  IN FACT...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING\r\nOVER 21-22 DEG C WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...345/10...IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  AS INDICATED EARLIER...HILARY IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY\r\nTHE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nAND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME...AS THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMES WEAKER AND STEERED MORE BY THE SHALLOWER-LAYER FLOW.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF HILARY.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 20.3N 113.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 21.7N 113.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 23.4N 114.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.8N 114.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":11,"Date":"1999-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 19 1999\r\n\r\nTHE BANDING EYE FEATURE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES DURING\r\nTHE DAY HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH RECENT \r\nIR IMAGES SHOWED A WARM SPOT WITHIN THE CDO. THE OVERALL CLOUD \r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING\r\nTHE LAST 24 HRS WITH INCREASED SYMMETRY AND EXPANSE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN \r\n65 KT...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS...AND DISSIPATING OVER 21-22 DEG C WATERS BY THE \r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11 KT.  HILARY SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE 12-36 HRS IN RESPONSE TO THE \r\nENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT BEYOND\r\n36 HRS...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES WEAKER AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING\r\nBECOMES DOMINANT. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A SHIP\r\nOBSERVATION...I.D. DGSR...WHICH REPORTED 37 KT AND 19 FT SEAS ABOUT\r\n105 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY.\r\n \r\nGUINEY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 21.4N 113.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 22.7N 114.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 24.3N 114.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 25.7N 115.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 27.0N 116.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 29.0N 118.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":12,"Date":"1999-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT HILARY MAY HAVE REACHED ITS\r\nPEAK INTENSITY EARLIER THIS EVENING...AS THE T NUMBER FROM SAB IS\r\nDOWN TO 3.5...55 KT.  HOWEVER...CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA ARE STILL 4.0 SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT. \r\nHILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HRS AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE OVER 21-22 DEG C WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10 KT.  HILARY SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.\r\nGUIDANCE OTHER THAN THE BAM MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  \r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HILARY.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 22.3N 114.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N 115.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 26.1N 116.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":13,"Date":"1999-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF HILARY\r\nIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IN FACT IS WEAKENING.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\n55 KNOTS AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS HILARY MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10.  THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE\r\nAND PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH HILARY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY...INTERESTS IN\r\nCENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 22.3N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 27.0N 116.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 28.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":14,"Date":"1999-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS OVER INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS.\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT SOME CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MAY\r\nREDEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 23.1N 115.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 24.0N 115.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 25.0N 116.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 26.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":15,"Date":"1999-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 20 1999\r\n \r\nHILARY REMAINS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF\r\nDISSIPATING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IT IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nNORTH NORTHWEST...340 DEGREES...AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS OVER INCREASINGLY\r\nCOOL WATERS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT SOME SMALL CLUSTERS\r\nOF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE FORECAST SYSTEM DISSIPATION IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGROSS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 24.0N 114.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 24.9N 115.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 25.9N 116.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 26.8N 116.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":16,"Date":"1999-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nHILARY REMAINS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF\r\nDISSIPATING CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IT IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nNORTH NORTHWEST...345 DEGREES...AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS OVER INCREASINGLY\r\nCOOL WATERS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT SOME SMALL CLUSTERS\r\nOF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE THE FORECAST SYSTEM DISSIPATION IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 24.7N 114.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 25.6N 115.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 26.4N 116.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 27.4N 117.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilary","Adv":17,"Date":"1999-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ONLY ISOLATED\r\nCLUSTERS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  HILARY IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE\r\nDISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY.  \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HILARY\r\nIS SPREADING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 25.1N 114.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 26.0N 115.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 27.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilary","Adv":18,"Date":"1999-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 1999\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSPIN DOWN.  HILARY SHOULD BE DISSIPATED IN A DAY OR TWO.  MID- TO\r\nHIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD AND\r\nEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nHILARY.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nFZPN03 KNHC AND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIAHSFEP2.\r\n \r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 25.5N 114.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 26.1N 114.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 26.9N 114.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1999-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 08 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE AREA\r\nOF DISTURBED WEATHER OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR MANZANILLO HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SABA ARE T2.5 SO THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE COOLER\r\nWATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nWITH ANY NEWLY-FORMED CIRCULATION THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...\r\nBUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 360/3.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS AN\r\nIMMEDIATE LEFT TURN KEEPING THE CYCLONE OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nCOAST...AND A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IF THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN DOES\r\nNOT MATERIALIZE SOON.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 17.7N 105.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 18.4N 105.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 18.9N 106.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.3N 107.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N 114.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":2,"Date":"1999-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 08 1999\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM CUYUTLAN MEXICO CLEARLY REVEAL A TIGHT CENTER WITH\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  THERE IS A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS INFORMATION...THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM...SO ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE\r\nIRWIN REACHES COOL WATERS IN 48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS TOWARD THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE TROPICAL STORM ON A\r\nMORE NORTHWEST MOTION SHORTLY AND THEN A WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE.  BECAUSE THIS TURN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO OCCUR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.\r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 18.5N 105.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 19.3N 105.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 20.0N 106.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 108.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 110.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":3,"Date":"1999-10-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 09 1999\r\n \r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.  SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE INTENSIFIES THE STORM OUT TO 36 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS TO\r\nWEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING.\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM CUYUTLAN MEXICO INDICATES THAT IRWIN HAS BEGUN\r\nTURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. SATELLITE POSITIONS AT 0600 UTC FROM\r\nSAB AND MIAMI ALSO SUPPORT THIS TURN.  INITIAL MOTION IS 305/5.  IF\r\nTHIS TREND CONTINUES THE TROPICAL WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED\r\nLATER TODAY.  GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A WESTERLY TRACK DURING\r\nTHE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AS INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 18.7N 106.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 19.4N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 19.6N 109.7W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 19.7N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":4,"Date":"1999-10-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 09 1999\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM CUYUTLAN MEXICO THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT IRWIN\r\nCONTINUES TO TURN AND IS NOW MOVING AT 285/3.  IF THIS MOTION AWAY\r\nFROM THE COAST CONTINUES THEN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DISCONTINUED WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE. RIDGING OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nKEEP IRWIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL.  MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS\r\nFASTER TO THE WEST. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45\r\nKT.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS THAT IRWIN WILL APPROACH \r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE SHEAR LESSENS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY BUT\r\nNOT QUITE AS MUCH AS SHIPS.  AFTER 36 HOURS...COOLER TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION AND SPIN DOWN THE VORTEX.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 18.8N 106.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 19.2N 107.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.4N 109.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":5,"Date":"1999-10-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 09 1999\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION FROM RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW 300/6...\r\nAND IRWIN IS PULLING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST.  TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS WERE DISCONTINUED BY THE MEXICAN GOVERNMENT AT 1800Z. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT DIVERGENT...WITH THE UKMET AND LBAR GIVING A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE NOGAPS AND BAM MODELS SHOWING A\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MOTION.  THE LATTER SCENARIO IS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF\r\nA FRAUDULENT VORTEX SPIN-UP BEHIND IRWIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE UKMET AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nSYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE BIT MORE VIGOROUS THAN THIS MORNING AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS THAT IRWIN WILL APPROACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH AS THE SHEAR LESSENS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ALLOWS SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY BUT NOT QUITE AS\r\nMUCH AS SHIPS.  AFTER 24-36 HOURS...COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION AND SPIN DOWN THE VORTEX.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 19.1N 107.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 19.4N 108.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 109.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 113.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N 117.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":6,"Date":"1999-10-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 09 1999\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nIRWIN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT\r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A\r\nWELL DEFINED OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.  INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 50\r\nKNOTS. IRWIN ONLY HAS A DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE BEGINS TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATER. \r\n\r\nIRWIN IS ALREADY BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER MEAN EASTERLY FLOW\r\nPRODUCED BY A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  CONSEQUENTLY...MODELS MOVE IRWIN ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK AND AWAY FROM MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  TRACK\r\nMODELS...MAINLY THOSE WHICH DEPEND ON THE AVN MODEL FORECAST\r\nFIELD...CAPTURED REMARKABLY WELL THE WESTWARD TURN WHEN IRWIN WAS\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD 24 HOUR AGO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE ENSEMBLE.   \r\n\r\nAVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 19.0N 108.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 19.1N 109.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 19.3N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 112.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":7,"Date":"1999-10-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 10 1999\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS SIGNIFICANT WARMING IN THE CDO OF\r\nIRWIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.0 AND 2.5\r\nAND AN EARLIER SSMI PASS INDICATED ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 35 KNOT\r\nWINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A SLOW WEAKENING TO 40 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...WITH THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN\r\nENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS IN 12 HOURS OR SO AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nAS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nIRWIN CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER MEAN EASTERLY FLOW\r\nPRODUCED BY A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/9.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A STRONG WESTWARD COMPONENT IN THEIR\r\nRESPECTIVE FORECASTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER DUE TO THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 19.2N 109.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 19.4N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 112.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 19.6N 114.6W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 19.7N 116.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 20.0N 120.0W    DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":8,"Date":"1999-10-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 10 1999\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF IRWIN IS ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BEGINS ITS DECAY PHASE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...\r\nCONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION RULES...ARE 55 AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SSTS WILL DECREASE ONLY MODESTLY ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND AS A RESULT THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL\r\nKEEPS IRWIN AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE LIMITED\r\nCONVECTION AND SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDECAYS THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIRWIN CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER MEAN EASTERLY FLOW\r\nPRODUCED BY A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/9.  THE TRACK MODELS AGREE\r\nON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UKMET MODEL\r\nAPPEARS TO LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 19.2N 110.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.2N 112.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 19.2N 114.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 19.2N 116.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":9,"Date":"1999-10-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 10 1999\r\n \r\nIRWIN HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE DISSIPATION OF ALL DEEP CONVECTION.  LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT A FEW WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY STILL\r\nEXIST...PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED A\r\nPRESSURE OF 1005 MB AT 18Z...WITH A NORTHWEST WIND OF 12 KT. AT THAT\r\nTIME THE CENTER OF IRWIN WAS ABOUT 15 NM NORTHEAST OF THE ISLAND. \r\n\r\nIRWIN NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING WITH A SHALLOWER LAYER FLOW AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 255/9.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT IRWIN WILL SPIN\r\nDOWN ONLY VERY GRADUALLY AS IT LOSES ITS REMAINING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 18.7N 111.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N 112.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.2N 114.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N 116.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z ...DISSIPATED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":10,"Date":"1999-10-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 10 1999\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF IRWIN MOVED VERY NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND WHICH REPORTED\r\nWINDS OF 10 KNOTS AT 2100 UTC.  LOW-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 25 KNOTS AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING\r\nDISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED.  IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...IRWIN IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST...PRODUCING SPORADIC PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nIN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS UNEXPECTEDLY. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 18.4N 111.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 111.5W    20 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-06-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUN 07 2000\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE DURING THE DAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND\r\nBECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...A REFORMATION OF THE\r\nCENTER IS LIKELY.  FLUCTUATIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD\r\nOCCUR DURING THE NIGHT.   HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS ORGANIZED\r\nENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.\r\nHOWEVER...NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AND BOTH\r\nIR IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR IS ALREADY DECREASING.  THIS MAY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nREACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL\r\nSLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...DUE TO\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 21.2N  93.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.8N  93.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N  93.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  94.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.5N  94.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 25.5N  96.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-06-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM CDT WED JUN 07 2000\r\n \r\nAS OFTEN OCCURS IN A CYCLONE AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT...\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS SHOWN A SHARP\r\nDIURNAL DECREASE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN 25 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nLAST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE POORLY-DEFINED\r\nCENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SET TO STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nANALYSES INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. THIS COMBINATION IS\r\nPRODUCING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A\r\nPOSSIBLE NORTHWARD TURN BY 72 HR. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...BUT\r\nIS SLOWER THAN THE AVN AND THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...WHICH HAVE THE\r\nDEPRESSION BETWEEN 27.5N-29.5N BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH IS CAUSING WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON PERSISTENCE AND\r\nAMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE...BUT DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF HOW MUCH\r\nSHEAR WILL OCCUR OVER THE DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN WILL BE AFTER 24 HR...DEPENDING ON EXACTLY\r\nWHERE IT IS IN RELATION TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. THUS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM BY\r\n36 HR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING AT ALL DUE TO THE SHEAR.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS CURRENTLY INDICATED...DUE TO\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 20.8N  92.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  93.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  93.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.3N  93.9W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.0N  94.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  95.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-06-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2000\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE\r\nOF UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION.  WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD HAVE A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL...OUR MOST\r\nSKILLFUL INTENSITY FORECAST TOOL...INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nREMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.    \r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD START TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nPREVIOUS ONES AND ALSO RESEMBLES THE ONE PRODUCED BY THE U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...EXCEPT SLOWER.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...BECAUSE\r\nOF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY PREDICTION...INTERESTS IN THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND\r\nTEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 20.5N  93.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.0N  93.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N  94.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N  94.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  95.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  96.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-06-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUN 08 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5 FROM TAFB AND 1.0 FROM SAB...AND\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE\r\nWILL INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT SO LITTLE MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TODAY.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A SLOW\r\nNORTHWEST DRIFT LATER TODAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nTONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. MOVES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INCREASES THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET\r\nMODEL AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IF FORECAST DUE TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWHICH HOLDS THE INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE AVN AND UKMET MODELS INDICATE A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH\r\nBUILDING OVER THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AFTER 48 HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nDUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY PREDICTION...INTERESTS IN THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND\r\nTEXAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 21.0N  93.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 21.3N  93.9W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 21.9N  94.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.0N  95.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  95.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 26.5N  96.0W    35 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-06-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUN 08 2000\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION IN THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE AND FOUND THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEGENERATED INTO A\r\nBROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITHOUT A DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.\r\nTHEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF\r\nREDEVELOPMENT AND...IF NECESSARY....ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nWILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1009 MB IS LOCATED IN THE\r\nCENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED\r\nSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST.  THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE\r\nDAYS.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 20.5N  94.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N  95.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-06-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000\r\n\r\nVISIBLE METEOSAT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE STRONG\r\nTROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION AND THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nAS 270/15.  ALL GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO LBAR...A GOOD PERFORMER IN THE DEEP TROPICS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC.  THERE HAS NEVER\r\nBEEN MUCH DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL.  NONETHELESS...SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...LOSES THE SYSTEM\r\nAFTER ONLY 18 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z  9.6N  29.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z  9.5N  32.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z  9.7N  35.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 10.1N  39.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 10.5N  42.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 11.0N  49.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-06-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n256 \r\nWTNT42 KNHC 242033\r\nTCDAT2\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND\r\nTHERE MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS.  CONVECTION IS NOT VERY\r\nDEEP AND LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE AS WELL.  SATELLITE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS.  BOTH THE UKMET AND AVN MAINTAIN A STRONG 500 MB HIGH NORTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST UPDATES THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE LBAR\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN DEFERENCE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...OUR BEST GUIDANCE.  SSTS ARE ONLY\r\nMARGINALLY WARM...AND ARE A BIT COOLER IN THE PATH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 57 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS...BUT THE UKMET AND GFDL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.  CLIMATOLOGY\r\nWOULD ALSO ARGUE AGAINST THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nANYTIME SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 10.0N  31.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 10.1N  33.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 10.2N  36.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 10.5N  40.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 11.0N  43.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 12.0N  50.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-06-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n239 \r\nWTNT42 KNHC 250250\r\nTCDAT2\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2000\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED DISCUSSION NUMBER TO 3...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY\r\nORGANIZED WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SO\r\nINITIAL WINDS ARE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER MARGINAL\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH IS QUITE SENSITIVE\r\nTO SST...DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.  OUR BEST\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS MODEL...CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM BY 36 HOURS AS IN THE LAST ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACKS DERIVED FROM THE AVN AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...NHC98 AND NHC98UK RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 10.2N  32.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 10.4N  35.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 10.9N  38.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 11.4N  41.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 12.0N  45.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 13.5N  51.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-06-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2000\r\n\r\nA SYMMETRIC BALL OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED\r\nOVERNIGHT...SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER SHOULD BE\r\nIF THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/15 IS CORRECT.  IF THE CENTER\r\nIS ACTUALLY DIRECTLY UNDER THE MIDDLE OF THE CONVECTION THEN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED MIGHT BE CLOSER TO 20 KNOTS.  ANYHOW...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED INCREASING TO 17 TO 18 KNOTS.  THIS IS BASED ON THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS MAINTAINING A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTION ALSO\r\nAFFECTS THE INTENSITY...WHICH COULD BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IF IT\r\nIS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH.  WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY TO\r\nSETTLE THIS.  THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE SHIPS MODEL OR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...OUT OF RESPECT FOR\r\nTHIS CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 10.2N  35.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 10.4N  37.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 10.8N  41.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 11.5N  45.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 12.3N  49.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 13.5N  56.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-06-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS\r\nORGANIZED AND THERE IS ONLY A WEAK CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE SYSTEM.  I AM NOT CERTAIN IF THERE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nBUT QUICKSCAT CERTAINLY SHOWS AN OPEN WAVE IN THE LATEST SWATH.   IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT COOL WATER AND CLIMATOLOGY ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING SINCE WIND SHEAR IS LOW.  SHIPS MODEL LIKES THE SYSTEM\r\nAND BRINGS IT TO 50 TO 55 KNOTS BETWEEN 60 AND 72 HOURS.  BY THEN...\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WOULD BE OVER 27 DEGREE WATER AND ONLY 9 KNOTS OF\r\nWIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS...IN THE SHORT TERM...SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  IN FACT.. BOTH GFDL AND UK MODELS DISSIPATE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN TWO DAYS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO CONTINUITY...WE ARE KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION AT\r\nTHIS TIME BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE TO DECLARE IT A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE LATER TODAY AND DISCONTINUE THE ADVISORIES. FOR\r\nNOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AT 30 KNOTS AND IN\r\nCASE IT SURVIVES...IT BRINGS THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS AS IT APPROACHES\r\nTHE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  \r\n\r\nA STRONGER THAN NORMAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS\r\nFORCED THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT\r\n18 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  A TURN MORE THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE\r\nDEPRESSION ON THIS GENERAL TRACK.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z  9.8N  37.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z  9.8N  40.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 10.0N  44.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 10.0N  48.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 11.0N  52.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  58.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-06-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2000\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND CLOUD WIND VECTORS FROM\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NO\r\nLONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL\r\nWAVE WITH ITS AXIS APPROACHING 4OW.  THE WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A\r\nLARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SQUALLS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD\r\nWESTWARD ABOUT 20 TO 25 MPH.  SHIPS MODEL INSISTS ON STRENGTHENING\r\nBASED ON THE FACT THAT ALL FACTORS ARE FAVORABLE EXCEPT CLIMATOLOGY.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS\r\nOF REDEVELOPMENT.  \r\n\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE VORTMAX...\r\nREMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION...MOVING WESTWARD AND CROSSING THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES IN 3 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON TD2 UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z  9.5N  39.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING \r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED  INTO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION THREE BASED ON A 0657Z TRMM OVERPASS AND A DELAYED 0600Z\r\nSHIP REPORT OF OF 45 KT AND 1007.8 MB JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME WEAK\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL\r\nWESTERLY TRACK. WE HAVE FOLLOWED MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWED MORE CLOSELY THE 00Z UKMET RUN IN BENDING\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE MORE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE OVERNIGHT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE SPUN UP A\r\nTIGHT WIND FIELD NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER BASED ON THE REPORT FROM\r\nSHIP MZYF3 JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON\r\nTHE RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. OUTFLOW IS\r\nFAIR TO GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE. THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN FAVORS STEADY STRENGTHENING\r\nAS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS. 25C SST WATER LIES\r\nJUST N OF 14N LATITUDE WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHREE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE\r\nCOOL WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 12.2N  22.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 12.6N  25.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 13.1N  28.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 13.5N  31.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 13.9N  34.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N  40.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  IT HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH\r\nEXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...MOST OF THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON\r\nTHIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nALBERTO AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nALBERTO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY FLOW AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE.  THE ONLY APPARENT NEGATIVE FACTOR\r\nFOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS THE MARGINAL...25-26 DEGREE CELSIUS\r\nOCEAN TEMPERATURE AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OVERALL\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS OR SO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS ALBERTO TO 71 KNOTS\r\nBY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nA CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nALBERTO COULD INDUCE A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...\r\nMOST OF THE LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  IF ALBERTO MISSES THE WEAKNESS...IT MAY CONTINUE\r\nON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE HIGH FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS WILL PROBABLY HAVE A\r\nBETTER HANDLING OF THE STORM IN THE TODAY 12 UTC RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 12.4N  25.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 12.6N  27.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 13.0N  30.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N  33.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 14.0N  36.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N  42.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALBERTO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  IT HAS A WELL DEFINED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE TRYING\r\nTO FORM.  SHIP V2PA9 REPORTED 35 KNOTS...1005 MB PRESSURE AND HEAVY\r\nRAIN ABOUT 60 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER.  WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 50\r\nKNOTS AT THIS TIME.   THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nBECAUSE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE AVN...WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE ALBERTO.  HOWEVER...SHIPS\r\nAND THE MIT EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS BRING ALBERTO TO\r\n75 AND 95 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY.  AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nGOES ALONG WITH THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SINCE THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE LOW.  BUT...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE FORECAST\r\nHAS TO BE REVERSED TO A WEAKENING TREND OR STEADY STATE AS INDICATED\r\nBY SOME GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND IT HAS BEEN\r\nLOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. IT DOES NOT\r\nMEAN THAT THE STORM HAS MOVED NORTHWARD.   THE OVERALL MOTION IS\r\nABOUT 275/15.  ALBERTO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EASTERLY FLOW...SOUTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE STRENGTH\r\nOF THE RIDGE VARIES IN THE DIFFERENT GLOBAL MODELS BUT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP ALBERTO ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS ALSO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS.  THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK IS THE GFDL RUN USING THE UK\r\nMODEL FIELDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 12.9N  25.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 13.0N  28.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.5N  31.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.0N  34.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  37.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N  44.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MAXIMUM WINDS...\r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE EVENING. \r\nWHILE THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER HAS DISAPPEARED...CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS STRONG NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD MOVE ALBERTO ALONG A WEST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WELL WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT BEING HOW FAST THE STORM WILL\r\nMOVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nBUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE IFFY.  WHILE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nCURRENTLY FAVORABLE...THE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.  THIS MIGHT SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR ALBERTO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR...\r\nWHILE THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 40 HR.  THE GFDN CALLS FOR\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING.  COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH THE AVN FORECASTS TO DEVELOP NEAR ALBERTO BY 72 HR. \r\nTHIS WOULD CREATE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS.  SINCE OTHER LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS SHOW LESS DEVELOPMENT TO THE TROUGH...IT WILL NOT YET\r\nFACTOR INTO THE FORECAST.  AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS STILL\r\nSTRONG...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL NEGATIVES...ALBERTO COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 13.4N  27.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 13.8N  29.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.4N  32.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 15.1N  35.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N  39.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N  45.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS WITH A SMALL CDO FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER.\r\nBASED ON THE CDO AND 0600Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55\r\nKT. OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE NORTH AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nTHE STORM MOTION THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALBERTO...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR WEST TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 00Z UKMET RUN IS\r\nSOMEWHAT CONFUSING WITH THE VORTEX TRACKER INDICATING A 72-HOUR\r\nPOSITION NEAR 18N 48W...WHILE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB FIELDS SHOW THE\r\nCENTER OF ALBERTO CLOSER TO 15N 44W. WE LIKE THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN OF THE UKMET AND THE SPEED OF THE VORTEX TRACKER...BUT NOT\r\nTHE POSITIONS. THE PREVIOUS 2 MODEL OUTPUTS WERE CLOSER TO 16N 45W\r\nAND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND. THE GFDL HAS HAD A SHARP RIGHT OF\r\nTRACK BIAS THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO I HAVE PLACED LITTLE FAITH IN THAT\r\nMODEL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BETWEEN\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDN VORTEX TRACKER POSITIONS. WE HAVE ALSO MADE A\r\nMORE WESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS BASED ON A POSSIBLE\r\n200 MB CONFLUENT ZONE SETTING UP BETWEEN WEAK NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING TROUGH AND THE POLEWARD\r\nOUTFLOW OF ALBERTO...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO RE-INFORCE THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY.\r\nALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER\r\nAFTER 12 HOURS. SINCE ALBERTO IS ALSO A RATHER SMALL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...SMALL CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION CAN RESULT IN\r\nSIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION. FROM 36 TO 48 HOURS...ALL\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON DIGGING A 200 MB TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE POLEWARD\r\nOUTFLOW AND ENHANCE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 13.7N  28.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.2N  30.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.7N  33.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 15.1N  36.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 15.5N  40.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N  47.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE MRF...DID NOT FORECAST STRENGTHENING\r\nAND INDEED ALBERTO IS WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME LESS ORGANIZED...THE EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES ARE NO\r\nLONGER OBSERVED AND THE OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL DEFINED. IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE UNEXPECTED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nBROUGHT ALBERTO TO RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...ALBERTO\r\nSTILL HAS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME.  SHIPS INTENSITY AS WELL AS THE MIT EXPERIMENTAL FORECAST\r\nMODELS INSIST ON STRENGTHENING WHILE THE 06 UTC GFDL RUN MAINTAINS\r\nTHE STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND\r\nAND THE MARGINAL SST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS ALBERTO AT 50 KNOTS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN ALBERTO APPROACHES WARMER WATERS. \r\nTHIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nALBERTO IS STILL MOVING 285/13 BUT ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BUILD. CONSEQUENTLY\r\n...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO WITH A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE\r\nGFDL...THE UK AND THE MRFX MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 14.4N  30.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.7N  32.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.3N  35.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N  38.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N  41.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N  47.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nIT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THAT THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WAS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND INDEED THE FORECAST WAS INCORRECT.\r\nALBERTO WAS WEAKENING EARLIER TODAY BUT IT NOW HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE.\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0 BUT DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINS...THE CI NUMBERS\r\nARE BEING HELD AT 3.5 AT THIS TIME.  THE OUTFLOW HAS NOT IMPROVED\r\nBUT A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYE-FEATURE.\r\nPLENTY OF CLOUD BANDS ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND ALBERTO ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE AND AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS FORMING. \r\nMAINLY BECAUSE OF THE EYE FEATURE...WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR A FEW\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  \r\nALBERTO IS THUS BEING UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS TIME. THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KNOTS UNTIL ALBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS.   SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT SHEAR IS NOT A\r\nPROBLEM FOR STRENGTHENING...ONLY THE SST COULD INHIBIT THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS MOVING 280/13 BUT ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BUILD.  IF ALBERTO\r\nINCREASES IN FORWARD SPEED...IT MAY MISS THE CURRENT WEAKNESS OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND IT WOULD THEN BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING\r\nRIDGE.  THIS COULD RESULT IN TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE\r\nUK...THE MRFX MODELS AND BY THE 12 UTC AVN WHICH SHOWS A VORTMAX\r\nRAPIDLY MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 14.7N  32.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N  34.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N  37.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N  39.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N  43.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  50.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15 AND THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS\r\nPROBABLY 270 DEGREES.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS PRETTY MUCH A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST\r\nSIX HOURS EXCEPT THAT THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nCENTER HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC.  WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nNUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT\r\n65 KNOTS.  ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 75 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS IS FORECAST FOLLOWING ALL OF THE USUAL GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 14.6N  34.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 14.8N  36.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N  39.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.2N  43.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.9N  46.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 17.8N  50.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM AST SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE BOTH 4.0...65 TO 70 KT. ALSO...AN EYEWALL CONVECTIVE BURST...\r\n-80C TO -82C TOPS...HAS PERSISTED FOR ALMOST 3 HOURS IN THE EAST\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE FORECAST MODELS ENVELOPE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS\r\nSHOWN NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND THE UKMET AND AVIATION MODELS HAVE\r\nNOT PICKED UP ON THIS...WHILE MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT RIGHT OF\r\nTRACK BIAS. THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN\r\nTRACKING ALBERTO ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE IS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS...\r\nBUT THEY GENERALLY AGREE IN TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE 300-200 MB TROUGH\r\nSOUTH OF 18N LATITUDE...WHILE MAINTAINING THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS TO\r\nTHE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE ONLY PUT A SMALL STAIR-STEP IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE\r\nWEST BY 72 HOURS SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nAS A RESULT OF ALBERTO TRACKING OVER COOLER SSTS. WARM MOIST\r\nUNSTABLE SOUTHERLY INFLOW AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN\r\nHELPING TO GENERATE STRONG CONVECTION...DESPITE THE COOL SSTS...AND\r\nTHIS MAY CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCOOL STABLE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE FULL EFFECT\r\nOF THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES OVER WARMER WATER.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 14.4N  35.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  37.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 14.8N  40.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.2N  43.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N  46.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  52.0W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF ALBERTO\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND SIGNIFICANT\r\nBANDING ALONG THE EAST SIDE.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN\r\nOSCILLATING...BUT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.  SATELLITE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.  FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS WHILE WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL...\r\nALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS DONE SURPRISINGLY WELL OVER THIS WATER SO FAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED OVER THE LAST TWELVE HOURS...AND IS\r\nNOW 275/11.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  AS ALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE TROUGH THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  BOTH THE AVN\r\nAND THE UKMET GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...AND AS A RESULT ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION\r\nOF THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...TURNS ALBERTO TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT IS SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 14.9N  36.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N  37.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.4N  40.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 15.9N  43.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N  46.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N  51.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10...WHICH REPRESENTS A BIT OF A RIGHTWARD\r\nTURN.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BEYOND 36-48\r\nHOURS IS BECOMING COMPELLING...AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE HAS NOW\r\nJUMPED ON THE BANDWAGON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MAJOR TROUGH\r\nDIGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF ALBERTO...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT A PIECE OF THIS TROUGH WILL HANG BACK ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE\r\nCYCLONE TO THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...THE EYE\r\nHAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY LATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AND ALBERTO MAY HAVE PEAKED...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK WILL LIMIT ACCESS TO WARM WATER AND INCREASE THE\r\nSHEAR.  LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SHORT TERM OSCILLATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 15.4N  37.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 15.7N  38.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 16.2N  41.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.7N  43.7W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  46.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  50.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12...ANOTHER NUDGE TOWARD THE RIGHT. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES SUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BEYOND\r\n36-48 HOURS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MAJOR TROUGH\r\nDIGGING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF ALBERTO...AND LOOKS LIKE SOME OF OUTFLOW\r\nIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF SYSTEM IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD\r\nOF THE TROUGH.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A PORTION OF THIS\r\nTROUGH WILL HANG BACK ENOUGH TO DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH\r\nTOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT WITH THIS PACKAGE.  A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK WILL LIMIT ACCESS TO WARM WATER AND INCREASE THE\r\nSHEAR.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INVARIANT IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 16.0N  38.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N  40.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N  42.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N  44.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N  46.9W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N  51.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM AST MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 TO 85 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 85 KT. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS AND A WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. ALBERTO HAS MADE ITS NIGHTLY WESTWARD\r\nWOBBLE AGAIN AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS HAS ACTUALLY BEEN\r\nCLOSE TO 270 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE TREND OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS HAS\r\nBEEN CLOSE TO 285 DEGREES. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STAY ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW 00Z UKMET\r\nMODEL TAKES ALBERTO SHARPLY OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION IS AT LEAST 60 NM SOUTH OF THE UKMET 12Z FORECAST\r\nPOSITION SO WE HAVE PLACED LITTLE WEIGHT ON THE UKMET SCENARIO.\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE FORECAST MODELS AFTER 24\r\nHOURS WITH SOME TAKING ALBERTO DUE NORTH. IT APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE PLACING TOO MUCH STEERING EMPHASIS ON THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH ONLY APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE\r\nOUTFLOW AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSE TO CLIPER AND THE 00Z NOGAPS\r\nMODEL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BYPASS ALBERTO\r\nTO THE NORTH...WHICH COULD POSSIBLY RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF ALBERTO HAS\r\nHELPED CREATE A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. BUOYS LOCATED JUST WEST OF\r\nALBERTO INDICATE THE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING OVER WARMER...26C...\r\nSSTS AND SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL ALBERTO\r\nENCOUNTERS SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL ACTUALLY TAKES ALBERTO DOWN FROM THE CURRENT 80 KT\r\nTO 70 KT IN 36 HOURS...DESPITE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE EXCESSIVE.\r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRY AIR BEGINNING TO\r\nWRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHICH MAY INHIBIT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FOR AWHILE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 16.2N  40.3W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.7N  42.3W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 17.4N  44.6W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 18.4N  46.8W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N  49.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N  53.0W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...WITH JUST THE\r\nFAINTEST HINT OF AN EYE IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND GOOD\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE ALL 77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS\r\nRATHER COMPLEX.  WHILE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ALBERTO REMAINS\r\nSTRONG...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPING WEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AT\r\nLEAST SOME NORTHWARD MOTION.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO\r\nCAMPS.  THE FIRST...WHICH INCLUDES THE CLIPER...BAMS...BAMM...AND\r\nNHC90...CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE SECOND...WHICH INCLUDES THE BAMD...GFDL...\r\nGFDN...GFDU...UKMET...LBAR...AND VICBAR...CALLS FOR AN IMMEDIATE\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION...WITH VICBAR EVEN SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER\r\n48 HR.  THE SECOND CAMP HAS THE MODELS THAT ARE GENERALLY MORE\r\nRELIABLE...WHILE THE FIRST CAMP IS CLOSER TO WHAT ALBERTO IS DOING\r\nNOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST CAMP AND WILL BE VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME ELONGATED SOUTHWEST-\r\nNORTHEAST...SUGGESTING THE TROUGH IS INFLUENCING THE STORM.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING EVOLUTIONS OF THE TROUGH...WITH THE AVN\r\nSPLITTING IT IN TWO WITH ALBERTO IN BETWEEN...THE UKMET DEVELOPING A\r\nRATHER LARGE COLD LOW NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE NOGAPS\r\nDEVELOPING A WEAKER BUT PERSISTENT TROUGH IN THE HURRICANE'S PATH. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE AVN OR UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE\r\nBETTER...BUT DOES NOT CONCLUSIVELY SHOW WHICH OF THOSE TWO MODELS\r\nMAY BE RIGHT.  IF THE AVN VERIFIES...CONDITIONS WOULD BE QUITE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HR OF LESS FAVORABLE SHEARING\r\nCONDITIONS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING\r\nIF ALBERTO WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND THEN RE-INTENSIFIED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 16.3N  41.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N  43.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.6N  46.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 18.8N  48.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N  50.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N  53.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM AST MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AS THE HURRICANE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 80 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST.  NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION AND AN ALMOST NORTH MOTION (VICBAR).  HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND\r\nBAMD MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND\r\nARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IN BEST\r\nAGREE WITH THE BAMM.\r\n\r\nAN SSM/I OVERPASS THIS MORNING DID NOT SHOW AN EYE...AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST.  IT THUS APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT.  WHILE THERE IS\r\nDISAGREEMENT ON DETAILS...LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THE STORM WILL\r\nENTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER 48 HR IF IT FOLLOWS THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING AT 72 HR.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE GFDN SHOWS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OVER 100 KT AFTER 48 HR.  THERE REMAINS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 48 HR\r\nAS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 16.6N  42.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.0N  44.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.9N  47.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.8N  49.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  51.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 23.0N  55.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE INDICATIONS TONIGHT...FROM AN SSMI PASS COURTESY OF THE\r\nNRL WEB SITE...AS WELL AS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...THAT ALBERTO IS\r\nEXPERIENCING ENOUGH SHEAR TO BEGIN TO EXPOSE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  SATELLITE DVORAK T NUMBERS GIVE 77 AND 55 KT...\r\nWHICH DIFFER BY SUCH A LARGE MARGIN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT\r\nWITH THIS ADVISORY...AND IF THE SHEARING IS CONFIRMED WITH VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY IN THE MORNING...THE INTENSITY MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AT THAT TIME.  I AM CONVINCED ENOUGH OF THIS TO\r\nFORECAST WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD LESSEN AND ALBERTO WILL BE IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND WOULD LIKELY REINTENSIFY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT WITH\r\nLESS CERTAINTY.  THE SYNOPTIC TRACK REASONING IS COMPLICATED BY THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RACING OUT AHEAD OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  IF THIS OCCURS...THEN THE ACTUAL TRACK IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST.  EVEN SO...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE TO KEEP ALBERTO NORTH OF THE\r\nISLANDS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 16.7N  44.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 17.0N  45.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.7N  48.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.7N  50.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.0N  52.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N  56.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS UNDERGONE SOUTHWESTERLY AND NOW SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nOVERNIGHT WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SLIGHT WEAKENING AND THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/13 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nMOTION IS CLOSER TO 275 DEGREES THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALBERTO HAS SHOWN\r\nNO SIGNS OF BEING DEFLECTED POLEWARD BY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...OR AS ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS MORE THAN 30 NM SOUTH OF THE UKMET\r\n12Z POSITION AND AT LEAST 60 NM SOUTH OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE 12Z\r\nMODEL POSITION. THE 00Z AVIATION AND UKMET MODEL RUNS BUILD A 594 DM\r\n500 MB HEIGHT CENTER DUE NORTH OF ALBERTO IN 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD\r\nPREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION. THE UW-\r\nCIMMS WATER VAPOR WIND ANALYSES ALSO SHOW A LONG NORTHEAST OR EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST FETCH OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS FROM 850 TO 400 MB NORTH OF\r\nALBERTO. IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS\r\nBYPASSED ALBERTO...AND WE NOW FEEL THAT THE HURRICANE WILL STAY ON A\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTERLY TRACK. WE ARE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TRACK ALBERTO OFF MORE WESTERLY\r\nAFTERWARDS...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACKS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE PAST 48 HOURS OF NOGAPS MODEL RUNS\r\nWHICH HAVE HANDLED THE TRACK DIRECTION QUITE WELL...ALBEIT TOO SLOW.\r\n\r\nIF ALBERTO SURVIVES THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESUME AFTER THE CYCLONE PASSES WEST OF 50W\r\nLONGITUDE WHERE IT WILL BE MOVING OVER 27C AND WARMER SSTS. IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT OUR INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW AFTER 36 HOURS\r\nWHEN ALBERTO WILL BE IN 200 MB SADDLE POINT...WHICH WOULD INDICATE\r\nLOW/NO SHEAR AND FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 17.1N  45.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 17.6N  47.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 18.5N  49.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 19.6N  52.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.0N  54.8W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 22.0N  60.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM AST TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF ALBERTO REMAINS RATHER RAGGED DUE TO SOUTHERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED\r\nSOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 70 KT\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nALBERTO CONTINUES ITS STAIR-STEPPING WAYS AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 285/11.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nWHILE A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nNHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST TRACK...\r\nWHICH IS AT ABOUT A 30-40 DEGREE ANGLE TO HOW ALBERTO HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THROUGH 72 HR AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\nALBERTO IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE STAIR-STEPPING...WOBBLING TO THE RIGHT\r\nAND LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WILL SPLIT BY 48 HR AND LEAVE ALBERTO IN A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  WHILE NOT CONCLUSIVE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS\r\nTHIS FORECAST COULD VERIFY.  THE GFDU AND SHIP MODELS RESPOND TO THE\r\nTROUGH SPLIT BY INTENSIFYING ALBERTO AFTER 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE MORE\r\nWEAKENING WHILE THE SHEAR CONTINUES...WHICH IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 17.4N  45.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 17.9N  47.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 18.7N  49.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 19.7N  51.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N  54.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  59.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS JUMPED NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS\r\nNOT YET CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER DUE TO\r\nINTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...OR THE BEGINNING OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST BY THE MODELS.  WHATEVER THE\r\nCAUSE...THE HURRICANE HAS LOST ORGANIZATION IN THE PROCESS.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 65 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH THE\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HR IS 320/11...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION REMAINS 285/11 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER THIS IS\r\nACTUALLY A TURN.  CONVENTIONAL AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW STRONG\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF ALBERTO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STORM\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE STILL UNANIMOUSLY\r\nCALLS FOR A NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\nIF ALBERTO IS REALLY TURNING NORTHWEST...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nLIKELY BE SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE RIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS ENOUGH SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW\r\nDISORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT ALBERTO IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN THE NEXT 12 HR.  AFTER 24 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE\r\nIN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPLIT BY 48\r\nHR AND LEAVE ALBERTO IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...\r\nSUGGESTING THIS PROCESS MAY ALREADY BE STARTING.  THUS...ALBERTO IS\r\nLIKELY TO RE-INTENSIFY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IF IT DOES NOT\r\nBECOME TOO DISORGANIZED IN THE NEXT 24 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 18.8N  47.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 19.2N  48.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  50.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 21.0N  53.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N  55.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 25.0N  59.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-08-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nTHE JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER TODAY NOW LOOKS LIKE A TRUE MOTION\r\nAS ALBERTO HAS CONTINUED ON A TRACK OF 325/12 THIS EVENING.  THUS IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE TURN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE IS NOW\r\nSTARTING TO VERIFY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND\r\nINDICATES A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. \r\nWITH THE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION WELL ESTABLISHED...AND AS ANTICIPATED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF ALBERTO...ANOTHER TEMPORARY TURN TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALBERTO IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN\r\nEARLIER AND THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE\r\nDOWN TO 45-55 KT AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND SO SOME REINTENSIFICATION\r\nIS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 20.0N  47.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 21.1N  48.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 22.4N  51.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  53.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  55.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 28.5N  58.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-08-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n\r\nIR SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CLOUD PATTERN PARTIALLY\r\nDISRUPTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AND MOST\r\nOF THE OUTFLOW TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT\r\n60 KNOTS AND BECAUSE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO\r\nCONTINUES WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER-\r\nLOW...CURRENTLY NEAR ALBERTO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AWAY FORM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IF\r\nALBERTO SURVIVES...AND MOST LIKELY IT WILL...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWILL THEN BE OVER WARMER WATERS AND WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT...THE GFDL\r\nAND THE GFDN MODELS LOWER THE PRESSURE TO AROUND 960 AND 940 MB\r\nRESPECTIVELY WHILE SHIPS BRINGS ALBERTO TO 79 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 75 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.   \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/12.  THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A\r\nNEW TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nPATTERN FAVORS A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. ON THIS TRACK ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE OVER\r\nOPEN WATERS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 20.8N  48.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 22.1N  50.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  52.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  54.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 27.0N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 31.5N  59.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nWHILE ALBERTO IS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE\r\nSTORM LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT...65\r\nKT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 60 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE STORM SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 315/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE-MODELS INDICATE A\r\nDEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF ALBERTO.  THE MODELS INDICATE THE\r\nTROUGH WILL INTENSIFY AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY\r\nNORTH OF ALBERTO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO TURN NORTH WITH\r\nTIME.  ALL NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS IT.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS STILL RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nINCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE SHEAR IS WEAKENING.  AS\r\nALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS AND BRINGS ALBERTO BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HR\r\nAND TO 85 KT BY 72 HR. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALBERTO PASSING WELL EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA...RESIDENTS OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHE STORM UNTIL IT HAS SAFELY PASSED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 22.4N  50.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.9N  52.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 25.8N  54.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 27.6N  56.2W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 29.5N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 34.0N  59.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE\r\nOCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF A BANDING EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE ALL 65 KT...SO ALBERTO IS UPGRADED BACK TO MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS NOW MOVING 320/19.  THE ACCELERATION APPEARS TO BE\r\nDUE TO THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE\r\nCURRENT SPEED IS NOT LIKELY TO LAST AFTER ALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM\r\nTHE UPPER LOW.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE FORECAST\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.. THIS\r\nSYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY RECURVE ALBERTO.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nCALL FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND EVEN EAST OF NORTH BY 72\r\nHR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...WITH SOME DECELERATION AS\r\nALBERTO MOVES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL QUITE ASYMMETRIC AS UPPER LEVEL\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS BLOWING ACROSS THE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nFASTER FORWARD MOTION HAS REDUCED THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR...\r\nALLOWING ALBERTO TO STRENGTHEN.  CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HR AS ALBERTO MOVES OVER WARM\r\nWATER.  AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALBERTO PASSING WELL EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA...RESIDENTS OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHE STORM UNTIL IT HAS SAFELY PASSED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 24.0N  52.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 25.8N  53.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.2N  56.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 30.5N  57.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 33.0N  58.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 37.5N  58.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nNOT MUCH HAS CHANGED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT THAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nFROM THE NRL WEB PAGE WAS REQUIRED TO FIND THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 77 KT DUE TO THIS\r\nUNCERTAINTY...AND I HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND KEPT ALBERTO AT \r\n65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A BIT MORE AS ALBERTO MOVES PAST THE\r\nLARGE UPPER LOW AND IS NOW 320/20.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS BEFORE...AND SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  AS ALBERTO MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW...SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ALBERTO PASSING WELL EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA...RESIDENTS OF THE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHE STORM UNTIL IT HAS SAFELY PASSED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 25.7N  53.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 27.9N  55.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.3N  57.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 32.9N  58.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 35.0N  58.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 39.0N  56.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND ONLY THE OUTFLOW THAT HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS.  BECAUSE ALBERTO IS ABOUT TO MOVE\r\nOVER WARMER WATERS AND WITHIN AN AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR...SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  HOWEVER...IT ONLY HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS TO\r\nDO IT.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 18 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE COMBINATION\r\nOF A TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WITH THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL STEER ALBERTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT DIFFER IN THE SPEED.\r\n \r\nBY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nOVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 26.9N  54.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 28.9N  56.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 31.5N  58.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 34.0N  58.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 36.5N  56.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 42.0N  50.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED THIS\r\nMORNING...AND A WESTWARD ELONGATION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nSUGGESTS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH IS CAUSING EASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 77\r\nKT...55 KT...AND 55 KT.  A NAVY DRIFTING BUOY RECENT REPORTED 60 KT\r\nWINDS AND A 1003.6 MB PRESSURE JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...ALBERTO REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING 320/18 AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL LARGE-SCALE AND NHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUPPORTS THE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RIGHT DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL CAUSING PROBLEMS FOR ALBERTO...\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. \r\nSTRENGTHENING SHOULD END BY 48 HR AS ALBERTO STARTS MOVING INTO\r\nCOOLER WATER.  BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 28.1N  56.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 30.3N  57.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 33.0N  58.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 35.6N  57.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 38.0N  55.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 43.5N  47.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING LIKE IT WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH A FEW HOURS\r\nAGO...THE ORGANIZATION OF ALBERTO HAS ONCE AGAIN IMPROVED WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FAINT EYE BEING VISIBLE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM LOOKS LESS ELONGATED THAN EARLIER...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS HAVING LESS\r\nIMPACT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.\r\n\r\nALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING 320/18 AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL LARGE-SCALE AND NHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  WATER VAPOR AND\r\nCONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE GUIDANCE.  ONE DISAGREEMENT HAS\r\nDEVELOPED IN THE MODELS AFTER RECURVATURE.  ONE CLUSTER...INCLUDING\r\nTHE GFDL...GFDN...AND LBAR...TURN ALBERTO MORE TO THE EAST AT A\r\nSLOWER SPEED. A SECOND CLUSTER...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND\r\nAVN...CALLS FOR A FASTER MORE NORTHEASTERLY MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES...CALLING FOR A\r\nMORE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN...AS ON THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK THE SYSTEM WOULD ENTER COOLER WATER IN 24 TO 36 HR. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THAT TIME...\r\nTHEN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATER.  BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO SHOULD\r\nBE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 29.5N  57.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 31.5N  58.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 34.3N  58.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 37.1N  57.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 39.5N  53.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 43.5N  43.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE EYE.  THE HURRICANE HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN IN\r\nALL QUADS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 90\r\nKT AND 77 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING AS IT BEGINS THE\r\nRECURVATURE AND IS NOW MOVING AT 345/13.  ALL LARGE-SCALE AND NHC\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  WATER\r\nVAPOR AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE GUIDANCE.\r\n   \r\nON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ALBERTO WILL ENTER COOLER WATER IN 24\r\nTO 36 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THAT\r\nTIME...THEN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATER.  BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO\r\nSHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 30.6N  58.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 32.5N  58.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 34.8N  57.9W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 37.7N  55.8W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 40.5N  51.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 45.0N  38.0W    70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":29,"Date":"2000-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/16 BASED ON FOLLOWING A LARGE EYE\r\nFOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE\r\nHURRICANE NORTH AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF A HIGH TO ITS EAST AND IS SWEPT AWAY IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nOVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nGUIDANCE AND HAS THE FORWARD MOTION TO 25 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  THE 72\r\nHOUR POSITION IS AT A SIMILAR LONGITUDE WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nMODELS BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LAST SIX\r\nHOURS.  THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LARGE EYE FEATURE AND EXCELLENT\r\nBANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM AND WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS AS COLDER WATER IS\r\nENCOUNTERED...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.  BASED ON THE LARGE\r\nEYE...THE WIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 31.6N  58.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 34.3N  58.9W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 37.5N  56.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 40.5N  52.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 42.3N  46.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 45.5N  35.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":30,"Date":"2000-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS SHOWING A 60 NM WIDE CLOUD FILLED EYE AND GOOD CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT...77\r\nKT  AND 77 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  SINCE THE CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nALBERTO IS MOVING THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL\r\nBE ENTERING THE WESTERLIES IN 24 TO 36 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION.  ONE\r\nINTERESTING NOTE ON THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE\r\nTURNS ALBERTO MORE SHARPLY TO THE EAST AND IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE AVN ITSELF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nSINCE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN ABOUT 24 HR.  AFTER THAT...\r\nALBERTO SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND START TO LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72 HR.  THE\r\nAVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL INDICATE THAT ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN A\r\nSTRONG SYSTEM THROUGH THE TRANSITION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 32.7N  58.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 34.7N  58.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 37.8N  55.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 40.3N  50.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 42.5N  43.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 45.5N  29.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":31,"Date":"2000-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM AST FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n \r\nAFTER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS CHANGED TO NO INTENSIFICATION...THE\r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION BECAME MORE INTENSE AND THE EYE BECAME BETTER\r\nDEFINED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB\r\nARE 90 KT...90 KT...AND 77 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE NOW WARMED A\r\nBIT AND THE EYE IS LESS DISTINCT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED\r\nTO 90 KT.  DRIFTING BUOY 44765 RECENTLY REPORTED A 991.8 MB PRESSURE\r\nJUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE...OR THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  ALBERTO SHOULD FINISH CURVATURE\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24-36 HR AND ACCELERATE NORTHEAST TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE IS STILL A CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE INCLUDING\r\nTHE GFDL...GFDN...BAMS...LBAR...AND VICBAR THAT TURN THE HURRICANE\r\nMORE SHARPLY TO THE EAST AND SLOWER.  THUS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST MIGHT BE TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT EGG ON THE FACE FROM THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR 12 HR OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nALBERTO MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS.  THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET\r\nCONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ALBERTO SHOULD REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM\r\nTHROUGH THE TRANSITION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 33.8N  58.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 35.8N  57.2W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 38.9N  53.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 41.6N  46.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 43.5N  40.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 46.0N  25.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":32,"Date":"2000-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY BASED ON A TAFB\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 TO 100 KT...STRONG T5.0...IMPROVED EYE\r\nAPPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A 2244Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWING A\r\nCIRCULAR 24 NM DIAMETER EYE IN THE LOW-LEVEL 37GHZ CHANNELS. THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS CIRCULAR WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR EVIDENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16.  SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN\r\nFALLING ON TRACK SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN\r\nLINE WITH THE UKMET...GFDN AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFDL MODEL IS THE\r\nMOST SOUTHERN AND SLOWEST OF ALL THE MODELS. HOWEVER...A SHARP\r\nEASTWARD TRACK SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SMALL OMEGA- OR REX-TYPE\r\nBLOCKING PATTERN TO THE EAST WHICH SHOULD ACT TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM\r\nFARTHER NORTH TO NEAR 40N LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING TO THE EAST.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE TENACITY OF ALBERTO...IT WOULDN'T SURPRISE ME IF THE\r\nHURRICANE MADE ONE MORE GASP AT TRYING TO ACHIEVE MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT.\r\nAFTER 12 HOURS...ALBERTO WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER...25C\r\nTO 22C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL TAKES ALBERTO TO 100 KT IN 12 HOURS AND THEN RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKENS THE SYSTEM AFTERWARDS TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN 72 HOURS.\r\nWE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITY HIGHER IN THE LATER PERIODS DUE TO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 48 TO 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 35.2N  57.2W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 37.4N  54.9W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 39.9N  50.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 42.1N  44.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 43.7N  36.3W    70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 46.0N  19.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":33,"Date":"2000-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES BRING ALBERTO TO 100 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS ALBERTO\r\nWILL GET AS THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL START GETTING\r\nCOOLER WITHIN 12 HOURS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBY 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN SSTS ARE NEAR 20 DEGREES C.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED\r\nON THE FORWARD SPEED REACHING ABOUT 30 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS AS THE\r\nHURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOLLOWING THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nMODELS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 35.7N  56.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 37.3N  53.6W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 39.7N  50.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 41.5N  44.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 43.0N  38.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 45.0N  23.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":34,"Date":"2000-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS A VERY DISTINCT EYE WITH EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION VIS IMAGES AND ON MICROWAVE DATA.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB\r\nAND OBJECTIVES HAVE REACHED 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND CONTINUE\r\nABOUT 5.5 FROM SAB.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110\r\nKNOTS BUT ALBERTO PROBABLY HAS ALREADY PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY AS THE IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER\r\nWATERS.  THIS MAKES ALBERTO A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.    \r\n\r\nALBERTO IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH. THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15\r\nKNOTS AND THEN EAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nCENTER OF ALBERTO SHOULD PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES BETWEEN 48 AND 72\r\nHOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THIS IS BASICALLY THE\r\nSOLUTION OF THE UK MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF MODELS SHOW ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND THE PASSAGE NORTH OF NEAR THE AZORES AT 72 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 36.6N  54.4W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 38.1N  52.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 40.0N  48.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 41.0N  43.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 41.5N  36.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 42.0N  21.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n2\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":35,"Date":"2000-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS MOVING 065/15 AT THIS TIME.  THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nAHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH. THEREFORE IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE\r\nSAME GENERAL TRACK.   HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON\r\nAND UNANIMOUSLY SLOW DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND TURN IT TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST AROUND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS SOLUTION WAS FIRST SUGGESTED BY THE MRF/AVN AND NOW\r\nEVEN THE UK MODEL HAS JOINED THE CLUB.  WITH SUCH A CHANGE...I HAVE\r\nNO CHOICE BUT TO MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY\r\nSLOWING DOWN THE HURRICANE BEYOND 48 HOURS AND TURNING IT A LITTLE\r\nBIT TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THIS MEANS THAT IF ALBERTO DOES NOT BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AS ANTICIPATED IT COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE AZORES.\r\n\r\nALBERTO CONTINUES WITH WINDS UP TO 110 KNOTS BUT IS ALREADY CROSSING\r\nTHE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM AND HEADING FOR COOLER WATER.  A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL INDICATES\r\nTHAT ALBERTO WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS BUT THIS FORECAST\r\nIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER LOWER LATITUDES...ALBERTO MAY LAST LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 37.1N  53.0W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 38.2N  50.4W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  46.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 40.0N  43.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 39.5N  40.0W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 37.5N  36.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":36,"Date":"2000-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS EXPERIENCED INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON 00Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n95 AND 100 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND ALSO A RAGGED\r\nCLOUD-FILLED EYE IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD\r\nIN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE...FAIR TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nTHOUGH 36 HOURS..AND A LITTLE EAST AFTERWARDS. ALL OF THE FORECAST\r\nMODEL TRACKS ARE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...POSSIBLY\r\nDUE TO MORE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL STEERING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION DECOUPLES FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO EXPECTED\r\nWEAKENING CONVECTION. THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE AZORES AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE AVN\r\nMODEL TO GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE\r\nAZORES AFTER 36 HOURS...LEAVING BEHIND A BROAD WEAK TROUGH. THE\r\nSURFACE TO 700 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN INTACT...WHICH MAY ACT TO KEEP ALBERTO ON A MORE EASTERLY\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE AZORES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DUE TO THE SMALL BLOCKING\r\nPATTERN TO THE EAST. COMBINE THE SHEAR WITH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nSSTS...25C TO 23C...AND THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR STEADY AND\r\nPOSSIBLE RAPID WEAKENING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TAKES ALBERTO\r\nDOWN BELOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY BY 72 HOURS...BUT WE HAVE\r\nKEPT THE INTENSITY HIGHER DUE TO EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 37.8N  51.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 38.7N  48.1W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 39.3N  44.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 39.3N  41.0W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 39.0N  38.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 36.8N  34.8W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":37,"Date":"2000-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/16.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW THE HURRICANE GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND TRACKING\r\nANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WHILE SLOWING ITS\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS A\r\nLITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS...AS IS THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nCLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AS THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SHRINKS\r\nAND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AS\r\nTHE TRACK CONTINUES OVER COLDER SSTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nWEAKENS THE HURRICANE FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS IS INCREASED TO 400 N MI TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER BASED ON A SHIP REPORT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 38.3N  49.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 39.0N  46.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 39.5N  43.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 39.5N  40.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  37.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 36.5N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":38,"Date":"2000-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/16...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. \r\nBOTH THE UKMET AND THE AVN SHOW THE HURRICANE GETTING CUT OFF FROM\r\nTHE WESTERLIES AND TRACKING ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID ATLANTIC\r\nRIDGE WHILE SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP COLD CONVECTION BUT THE BANDING STRUCTURE\r\nIS STILL WELL-DEFINED.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 77 AND 65\r\nKT...WITH CI NUMBERS STILL AT 90 KT.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nDECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THESE NUMBERS AND AN\r\nASSUMPTION THAT THE SURFACE WIND WILL DECAY OVER COOLER WATER FASTER\r\nTHAN THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS...BUT MAY HAVE OVERSTATED THE\r\nSHEAR IF THE CYCLONE DETACHES FROM THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THIS GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THIS FORECAST CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IN 48 HOURS...A MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD DISSIPATION IS ALSO\r\nPOSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 38.7N  47.4W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 39.2N  44.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 39.5N  41.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 39.3N  38.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 38.5N  37.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 37.0N  36.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":39,"Date":"2000-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER AND LOWER\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE SEPARATING...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nLAGGING BEHIND.  THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 77 KT AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.  ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nSPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/15.  BOTH THE UKMET AND THE AVN\r\nSHOW THE HURRICANE GETTING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND TRACKING\r\nANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID ATLANTIC RIDGE WHILE SLOWING ITS\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE EXPLICIT TRACK GUIDANCE HAS A HARD STOP FOLLOWED\r\nBY SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICAL\r\nFORECAST MAKES A HARDER TURN THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 38.9N  45.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 39.2N  42.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 39.4N  40.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 38.6N  38.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 38.0N  38.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  39.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":40,"Date":"2000-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE HURRICANE ALBERTO\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 70\r\nKT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE...ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/14.  THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST\r\nMODELS TRACK ALBERTO TO THE EAST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE TOP OF A REX-TYPE BLOCKING HIGH\r\nAND THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO A BROAD TROUGH.  WE HAVE CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWED THE UKMET...GFDL...AND AVN MODEL SOULTIONS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE TARCKS OVER COOLER\r\nWATER...ENCOUNTERS MORE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM\r\nSLOWS DOWN...AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT\r\nALBERTO COULD MERGE WITH THE BAROLCINIC ZONE AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 39.1N  43.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 39.4N  41.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 39.0N  39.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 38.0N  38.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 37.0N  39.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 35.5N  41.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":41,"Date":"2000-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/20 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND\r\nTHEN WEST.  THE BASIS FOR THIS IS THE STEERING PROVIDED BY A HIGH IN\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AROUND WHICH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nFOR MUCH OF ITS EXISTENCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ALBERTO.  THE\r\nFORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nMOVES THE CENTER BACK OVER 25 DEGREE C WATER AFTER 48 HOURS AND THIS\r\nCOULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DECREASING VERY FAST.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL CLOUD ZONE FOR SOME\r\nTIME AND... ALTHOUGH NOT FORECAST...THIS COULD PROVIDE FOR AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 39.0N  41.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 38.6N  39.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  39.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 36.5N  40.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 36.3N  41.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 36.0N  42.5W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":42,"Date":"2000-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER BETTER AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 090/18.  THERE IS NO SIGN OF THE HARD SLOWDOWN \r\nFORECAST BY THE MODELS...YET NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INSISTS IT WILL\r\nHAPPEN VERY SOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NOW ALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND THE WINDS\r\nARE LOWERED TO 60 KT. THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER BACK OVER 25 DEGREE C\r\nWATER AFTER 48 HOURS AND THIS COULD KEEP THE WINDS FROM DECREASING\r\nVERY FAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 39.0N  40.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 38.7N  38.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 37.9N  38.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 37.4N  39.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 37.0N  40.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  42.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":43,"Date":"2000-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF ALBERTO IS BEGINNING TO SLOW AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 090/14.  THERE IS A LITTLE LESS UNANIMITY ABOUT THE\r\nFORECAST TURN IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT AS IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nOCCURRING THE FORECAST IS QUALITATIVELY THE SAME AS BEFORE.  \r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DISAPPEARING AND THE INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT...BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND UNDER STRONG SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED.  THE MAIN\r\nQUESTION IS WHETHER THE CAUSE OF DEATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE BY DISSIPATION OR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE CONVECTION SEEMS\r\nA BIT MORE INVOLVED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH THIS\r\nAFTERNOON THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 39.0N  38.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 38.7N  37.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 38.1N  36.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 37.5N  37.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  39.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 36.5N  42.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":44,"Date":"2000-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n\r\nTHE MUCH ANTICIPATED CHANGE IN COURSE IS NOW COMING ABOUT.  OVER THE\r\nLAST FEW HOURS...ALBERTO CAME TO A SCREECHING HALT AND IT IS NOW\r\nDRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALBERTO SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/06 AND A TURN TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nTHIS IS A MUCH MORE DRASTIC TURN THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER\r\nADVISORIES...BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN\r\nAND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND NOGAPS MODEL\r\nRUNS. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING AND AS SUCH IT\r\nIS HARD TO CLASSIFY THIS AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nDECREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND A VERY SLOW SPINDOWN OF THIS LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION IS FORECAST.  IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD...SAY 24 HOURS...WE WOULD LIKELY\r\nCLASSIFY ALBERTO AS NON-TROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 38.6N  38.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 37.8N  38.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 37.0N  39.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 36.5N  40.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  42.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":45,"Date":"2000-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...CONTINUING THE TRACK IN AN\r\nANTICYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE OF...THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH ALBERTO IS PRETTY MUCH DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A SHIP REPORT KEEP THE WIND SPEED\r\nAT 45 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nWARMER SSTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 37.8N  38.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 37.0N  39.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 36.5N  40.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  42.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 35.7N  43.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  47.0W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":46,"Date":"2000-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 190/09.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...CONTINUING THE TRACK IN AN\r\nANTICYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A HIGH ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD IS BROAD AND THERE IS MINIMAL CONVECTION.  SHIP\r\nREPORTS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS STILL ABOUT 45\r\nKT...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOT THAT HIGH.  THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH\r\nALBERTO OVER 26C WATER...SO WE CANNOT DECLARE ALBERTO EXTRATROPICAL\r\nYET.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND\r\nSHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 36.9N  38.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 36.3N  39.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 35.6N  40.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 35.2N  42.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 35.0N  44.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  47.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":47,"Date":"2000-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nWHAT CONVECTION THAT IS LEFT WITH ALBERTO IS DISPLACED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE 25 TO 30 KT...BUT ARE NOT ESPECIALLY\r\nAPPLICABLE FOR THIS SEMI-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN WHICH THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS ARE LOCATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  ADVANCED MICROWAVE\r\nSOUNDER UNIT DATA FROM 11Z THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN/CIMSS WEB PAGE...STILL SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE.\r\nALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME\r\nREINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS ALBERTO\r\nPASSES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC.\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO EXECUTE AN ANTICYCLONIC TURN AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 225/8.  A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE AVN AND UKMET GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO ERODING AS THE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST ADVANCES EASTWARD.  A\r\nSECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NORTH AMERICA IN TWO DAYS AND\r\nSHOULD THEN BEGIN TO LIFT ALBERTO MORE NORTHWARD.  THE UKMET IS MUCH\r\nSTRONGER IN ITS DEVELOPMENT OF THE SECOND TROUGH AND THEREFORE\r\nINDICATES A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING VERY WELL WITH ALBERTO...AND\r\nTHE UKMET.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 36.4N  39.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 35.7N  40.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 35.2N  41.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 34.8N  43.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  45.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 35.5N  47.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":48,"Date":"2000-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGES BUT THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAT 24 HOURS AGO.  SHIP\r\nWCOB REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 90 N\r\nMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA FROM A RECENT\r\nPASSAGE OVER ALBERTO REVEAL A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 40 TO 45\r\nKNOT WINDS.  DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 7 OR 8 KNOTS AROUND A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  ALBERTO SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THIS IS THE GENERAL\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE FSU\r\nEXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n\r\nALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER WATERS AND INTO A LOWER SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SMALL\r\nINCREASE IN INTENSITY BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 35.8N  39.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  40.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 34.5N  42.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  44.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 33.5N  45.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 35.0N  48.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":49,"Date":"2000-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN ALBERTO THIS MORNING AS WEAK CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS CONTINUE NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 35 KT...30 KT... AND 30 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...WITH THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND EARLIER SHIP\r\nAND SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 40 KT. \r\nANOTHER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD HELP DETERMINE IF ALBERTO IS WEAKENING FURTHER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/8.  CONVENTIONAL INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOW A LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF ALBERTO. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THAT ALBERTO SHOULD MOVE AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT BEING HOW QUICKLY THE STORM WILL\r\nTURN NORTHWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE AVN...THE\r\nBAM MODELS...AND THE UKMET FAVOR A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 48\r\nHR... WHILE THE GFDL...LBAR...AND NHC90 INDICATE MORE WESTERLY\r\nMOTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nEXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MINIMAL...ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nGRADUALLY WARMER WATERS.  THE AVN AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT CURRENT\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SHOULD SUBSIDE BY 48 HR...WHILE THE\r\nUKMET KEEPS SIGNIFICANT SHEAR IN PLACE.  SINCE THE SOUTH SIDES OF\r\nDEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONES ARE OFTEN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST IN CALLING FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 35.2N  40.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 34.6N  41.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 34.0N  43.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 33.7N  45.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 34.0N  47.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 35.5N  49.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":50,"Date":"2000-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE SCATTEROMETER PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT ALBERTO\r\nWAS SPINNING DOWN...NEW CONVECTION...THE MOST VIGOROUS IN AT LEAST\r\n24 HOURS...HAS DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE AND THERE HAS BEEN\r\nIMPROVEMENT IN THE BANDING PATTERN.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY NOT DECREASED BUT IS HELD AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE MOTION OVER THE PAST\r\nTWELVE HOURS HAS BEEN 230/11...AND FASTER THAN THAT OVER THE PAST\r\nSIX...AS ALBERTO MOVES AROUND A LARGE DEEP LAYER HIGH TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS FEATURE\r\nSHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THAT ALBERTO\r\nSHOULD MOVE AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE\r\nMAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE STORM WILL TURN NORTHWARD ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE AVN...THE BAM MODELS...AND THE\r\nUKMET FAVOR A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 48 HR... WHILE THE GFDL\r\nAND LBAR FAVOR MORE WESTERLY MOTIONS.  THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE IS IN BETWEEN BUT NOT FAR FROM THE GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT ACCELERATION AND IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD GRADUALLY WARMER WATERS...AND APPEARS TO BE\r\nRESPONDING.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS ALBERTO TO NEARLY\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nSLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 34.3N  41.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 33.6N  43.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 33.2N  45.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 33.2N  46.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 33.5N  48.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 35.0N  49.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":51,"Date":"2000-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF RENEWED HEALTH...AS DEEP COLD\r\nCONVECTION...COLDER THAN -70C...IS NOW PRESENT ON ITS SOUTHEAST\r\nSIDE.  THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE STILL NOT QUITE\r\nCOINCIDENT.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT. \r\nALBERTO IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A TRANSFORMATION FROM A SEMI-\r\nTROPICAL TO A MORE CLASSICAL TROPICAL STRUCTURE.  AS THE WIND FIELD\r\nTIGHTENS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WILL CATCH UP AND GIVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF\r\nTHE ACTUAL INTENSITY.  WITH RELATIVELY WARMER WATER AND RELATIVELY\r\nLOW SHEAR...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ALBERTO BACK TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN 60 HOURS.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS ALBERTO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nIN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/13...EVEN FASTER THAN THIS MORNING.  THERE\r\nIS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST HOW LONG THE WESTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION WILL PERSIST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFDL AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...WITH A MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AS FAR AS THE EYE CAN SEE...AN EXTENDED\r\nWESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS THE U.S. DOES NOT APPEAR POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS NOW THE THIRD LONGEST-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE\r\nMONTH OF AUGUST SINCE 1900.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 33.6N  43.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 33.2N  44.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 33.0N  46.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 33.2N  48.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 33.5N  49.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 35.0N  51.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":52,"Date":"2000-08-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n\r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED AND IS NOW LOOKING VERY\r\nMUCH LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN.  THERE IS A CONCENTRATION OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM IS STILL NOT QUITE\r\nVERTICALLY STACKED AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-\r\nLEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB\r\nMIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY SINCE THE OCEAN IS\r\nRELATIVELY WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT STRONG.  ALBERTO IS\r\nLIKELY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH MAY BE CONSERVATIVE...IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT AND MOTION IS NOW 240/11. \r\nALBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BLOCKING MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST... THEN\r\nNORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTH...IS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFDL...U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND AVN MODEL RUNS INDICATE A TRACK EVEN\r\nFARTHER TO THE EAST.  ALTHOUGH ALBERTO IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FAST\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE BROAD U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH AT 72\r\nHRS...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE\r\nPICKED UP AND ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AT THAT TIME.  THUS ALBERTO\r\nMAY EARN SOME NEW LONGEVITY RECORDS IN THE COMING DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 33.2N  44.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 32.8N  45.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  47.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 33.5N  48.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  49.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 36.5N  49.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":53,"Date":"2000-08-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO...WHICH WAS WRAPPING QUITE NICELY\r\nAROUND THE CENTER EARLIER...HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED INTO TWO RAGGED\r\nBANDS NE AND SW OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN 45 KT.  BASED ON THIS...AND ON DRIFTING BUOY\r\n44620 WHICH REPORTED 1001.9 MB AT 06Z...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 45\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED FURTHER.  UP TO NEAR 06Z THE CYCLONE\r\nWAS MOVING 235/9.  SINCE THEN...THE MOTION IS MORE WESTERLY AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 260/6.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF\r\nALBERTO SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO\r\nMOVE WEST FOR 12-24 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH...\r\nWITH A GENERALLY SLOW MOTION DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ANTICYCLONE\r\nCENTER.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE OUTLYING LBAR AND VICBAR CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND A 5-7 KT FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THE CURRENT HICCUP IN THE\r\nCONVECTION...AND CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ALBERTO TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN THROUGH 48 HR.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\nAGREE WITH THIS...AND THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY\r\nTHE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 32.9N  44.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 32.8N  45.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 33.0N  47.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.9N  48.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  48.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 37.0N  48.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":54,"Date":"2000-08-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 17 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN NEAR THE CENTER HAS IMPROVED OF LATE.\r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD THERE FOR NOW.  THE IMPROVED PRESENTATION IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ALBERTO TO\r\nRETURN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH BACK INTO COOLER WATERS AS\r\nWELL AS CROSS ITS OWN PATH...SO THE INTENSIFICATION FORECAST LEVELS\r\nOFF AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...WITH A HINT IN THE LAST FEW IMAGES\r\nTHAT THE SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS ENDED.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATES THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS NOW MAINTAINED AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LONGER\r\nTHAN ALL AUGUST TROPICAL CYCLONES SINCE 1900 IN THE ATLANTIC\r\nBASIN...EXCEPT FOR HURRICANE FELIX IN 1995.  IF ALBERTO MAINTAINS\r\nSTORM STATUS UNTIL TOMORROW AT 5 PM...IT WILL SURPASS FELIX FOR\r\nAUGUST LONGEVITY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 32.9N  45.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  46.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 33.5N  47.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  48.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 35.5N  49.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N  49.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":55,"Date":"2000-08-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF ALBERTO.  OUTFLOW IS DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS AS IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT ALBERTO HAS OBLITERATED THE UPPER LOW THAT HAD BEEN SURROUNDING\r\nIT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND HAVE REACHED 55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO THIS VALUE FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9...AND ALBERTO IS CONTINUING TO EXECUTE A\r\nGENTLE ANTICYCLONIC LOOP.  A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TURN\r\nALBERTO TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 33.1N  46.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 33.4N  47.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 34.3N  48.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 35.4N  48.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 36.5N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 39.0N  47.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":56,"Date":"2000-08-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000\r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN\r\nTERMS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED\r\nRING OF CONVECTION...A POSSIBLE EYEWALL.  HOWEVER...T-NUMBER\r\nINDICATE THAT THE MAX WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 55 KNOTS.  SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE FROM THE GFDL\r\nAND SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST AT 6 KNOTS.  A DEVELOPING TROUGH SWINGING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ALREADY ERODING THE HIGH TO THE NORTH\r\nOF ALBERTO.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER ALBERTO ON A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOST\r\nOF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THE GENERAL\r\nNORTHWARD AND SLOW MOTION.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 33.4N  46.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 33.8N  47.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  48.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 35.5N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 37.0N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 40.0N  48.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":57,"Date":"2000-08-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS TRIED TO DEVELOP A RAGGED BANDING EYE OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHR.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION NEAR THE EYE HAS WEAKENED IN A FASHION\r\nSIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55\r\nKT...AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/6.  A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC IS PUSHING THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NEAR ALBERTO\r\nEASTWARD...WHICH ALLOW THE STORM TO TURN NORTH WITH TIME.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE WITH THIS...WITH THE PRIMARY PROBLEM\r\nBEING HOW FAST ALBERTO WILL MOVE....WHERE THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO\r\nTWO CLUSTERS.  A RELATIVELY SLOWER CLUSTER INCLUDES THE AVN...\r\nNHC90...THE BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND VICBAR.  A RELATIVELY FASTER\r\nCLUSTER INCLUDES THE GFDN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST GOES WITH THE FASTER CLUSTER IS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SHOWS FAIR TO\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW EVERYWHERE EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST.  WITH THE EYE\r\nFORMING...IT IS LIKELY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKE ALBERTO NORTH OF THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM BY 72 HR...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST STOPS\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND WEAKENS THE STORM SLIGHTLY AT THAT TIME\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 33.7N  47.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 34.3N  48.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 35.4N  48.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 36.4N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 37.5N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 40.5N  47.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":58,"Date":"2000-08-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  58\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS DEVELOPED A 30 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 60 TO 65 KT FROM THE\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES. BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE...ALBERTO IS\r\nBROUGHT BACK UP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...FOR THE THIRD TIME. OUTFLOW\r\nIS IS ONLY FAIR...BUT REMAINS CIRCULAR IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 335/7. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWARD DIRECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH\r\nLATITUDE RIDGE. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PICK UP\r\nTHE SYSTEM...ONLY A SLOW SPEED BETWEEN 7 TO 10 KT IS FORECAST. THE\r\nOFFICAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TRACK...AND NEAR THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET SOULTIONS.\r\n \r\nALBERTO WILL REMIAN OVER MAGINALLY WARM SSTS...SO SOME SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 34.5N  47.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 35.4N  48.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 36.8N  48.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 38.3N  48.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 39.7N  48.2W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 42.3N  47.4W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":59,"Date":"2000-08-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  59\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BASED ON 75\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nPHILOSOPHY.  ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LATITUDE RIDGE...AND THEN\r\nGRADUALLY GET PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MIAN INFLUENCE BY THE TROUGH SHOULD BE TO STEER THE\r\nSYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TRACKS...AND NEAR THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET SOULTIONS.\r\n \r\nALBERTO WILL REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...AND SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  THIS IS IN LINE\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 35.1N  48.3W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 36.1N  48.7W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 37.5N  48.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 38.9N  48.6W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 40.5N  48.2W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 43.6N  46.8W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":60,"Date":"2000-08-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  60\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/05.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS\r\nA 500 MB ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF ALBERTO WHICH SHOULD KEEP ITS FORWARD\r\nMOTION SLOW UNTIL AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES GETS CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS MAY NOT HAPPEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE RATHER SLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOSTLY NORTHWARD WITH A MODEST INCREASE\r\nIN FOREWARD SPEED TO 9 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAN EXCELLENT LARGE EYE CONTINUES.  WARM WATERS ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL ALBERTO GETS NORTH OF 40 DEG LAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 35.2N  48.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 35.8N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 36.9N  48.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 38.2N  48.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  48.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 43.0N  46.5W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":61,"Date":"2000-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  61\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF ALBERTO REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION\r\nHAS COOLED DURING THE NIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW\r\n90 KT...77 KT...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS LIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THAT WAY...SO SOME FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE COOLER\r\nWATERS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.  THAT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 36-48\r\nHR WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/4.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL\r\nADVISORIES.  THE BROAD DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nAND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD NUDGE THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NEAR\r\nALBERTO EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A TURN TO THE NORTH.  SINCE\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ABOUT TO PASS NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE...THE MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SLOW.  BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROUGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 35.6N  48.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 36.1N  48.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 37.3N  48.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 38.8N  48.2W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 40.5N  47.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 44.0N  46.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":62,"Date":"2000-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  62\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DESPITE THE LARGE 40 NM DIAMETER\r\nEYE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN NEAR 90 KT FOR THE PAST 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5.  THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL ADVISORIES.  ALBERTO IS BEGINNING TO TRACK NORTHWARD AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN SIDE OF A LARGE RIDGE...WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND SOUTHEAST CANADA MOVES EAST. THE\r\nENTIRE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS AND THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT\r\nIN THE TRACK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BEGIN PICKING\r\nUP ALBERTO UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOW\r\nBEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER.  BY 72 HOURS...ALBERTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 20C OR COLDER SSTS WHICH SHOULD HELP TO\r\nRAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM...BUT THE INTENSITY WAS HELD SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO\r\nTHE LARGE SIZE OF THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD WHICH WILL TAKE SOME\r\nTIME TO SPIN DOWN EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO MAY BE DEVOID OF ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 36.0N  48.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 36.8N  48.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 38.2N  48.3W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 39.8N  47.7W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 41.5N  47.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 45.3N  44.7W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":63,"Date":"2000-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  63\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITIES RANGING FROM 90 TO 100 KT. ALSO... SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC HAVE BEEN AT LEAST 90\r\nKT FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 95 KT. THIS TAKES ALBERTO TO JUST BELOW CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY.  ALL OF THE MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACKS AND MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THE GRADUAL ACCELERATION AND TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPICK UP ALBERTO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND HELP TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION THE\r\nCYCLONE TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND BETWEEN THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nALBERTO WILL BE TRACKING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...A TIGHT SST GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG\r\n40N LATITUDE AND...AFTER 24 HOURS...ALBERTO WILL BE MOVING OVER 23C\r\nTO 17C WATER.  A COMBINATION OF THE COLD WATER AND APPROACHING\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD HASTEN THE CONVERSION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM...BUT THE WIND FIELD WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN\r\nEVEN THOUGH ALBERTO WILL PROBABLY BE DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTIAL 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED\r\nON 18Z SHIP REPORTS AND A QUIKSCAT SURFACE WIND CONVERSION PLOT\r\nPROVIDED BY THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 36.5N  48.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 37.5N  48.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 39.2N  47.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 41.1N  47.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 44.5N  45.5W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 48.5N  42.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":64,"Date":"2000-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  64\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/04.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nCONTINUES A SLOW MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE HURRICANE BLOCKING ITS PROGRESS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS\r\nARE FASTER...WITH A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA...ERODING\r\nTHE RIDGE AND CAUSING AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES AND DOES\r\nACCELERATE THE FORWARD SPEED TO 22 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE 90 KNOTS.  SSTS WELL BELOW 20\r\nDEG C BY 48 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND A TRANSITION\r\nTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 36.7N  48.1W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 37.4N  48.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 38.5N  47.9W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 40.5N  47.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 42.5N  46.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 50.0N  40.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":65,"Date":"2000-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  65\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A BLOCKING HIGH.  PROGNOSTIC REASONING IS BASICALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...ALBERTO IS LIKELY TO BE ACCELERATED NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. AND HEADED FOR THE MARITIME PROVINCES...WHERE THE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD AMPLIFY SOMEWHAT.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE 50 N MI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED\r\nIN FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS...ESPECIALLY FOR A HIGHER LATITUDE SYSTEM. \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 90 KNOTS.  SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES COOL SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH OF 40N...SO ALBERTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER PASSING THIS LATITUDE.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 37.0N  48.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 37.8N  47.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 39.2N  47.7W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 41.2N  47.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 44.0N  45.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 53.0N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":66,"Date":"2000-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  66\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO HAS FINALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS IT MOVES\r\nNORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND SOME DRY AIR APPEARS TO\r\nBE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/4.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  ALBERTO IS IS STILL CAUGHT IN THE\r\nBLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO THE EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE\r\nMORE TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE TIGHT SST GRADIENT LOCATED ALONG 40N\r\nLATITUDE.  BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ACCELERATED OVER COLD\r\n...LESS THAN 20C SSTS...AND RAPIDLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 37.5N  47.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 38.4N  47.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 40.1N  47.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 43.0N  45.9W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 46.5N  43.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 56.5N  34.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":67,"Date":"2000-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  67\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS MAINTAINED\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB.  OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/5.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  ALBERTO REMAINS CAUGHT IN THE BLOCKING\r\nRIDGE PATTERN TO THE EAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES MOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND RAPIDLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 37.9N  47.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 38.8N  47.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 40.6N  46.9W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 43.7N  45.3W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 48.5N  41.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 59.5N  31.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":68,"Date":"2000-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  68\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A LITTLE COLDER THAN EARLIER. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/5...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nPHILOSOPHY...SAVE FOR A SMALL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT BASED ON THE NEW\r\nINITIAL MOTION.  ALBERTO SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nBY 24 HOURS WHEN THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES\r\nMOVES EAST AND GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  \r\n \r\nALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVES OVER VERY MUCH COLDER WATER AND BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  BY 72 HOURS THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A\r\nLARGER SCALE LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 38.1N  47.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 38.9N  47.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 40.8N  46.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 44.6N  43.9W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 50.0N  39.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z ...ABSORBED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":69,"Date":"2000-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  69\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\n \r\nAFTER 68 ADVISORIES...WHAT CAN YOU SAY ABOUT ALBERTO THAT HASNT\r\nALREADY BEEN SAID.  THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE COMING DOWN AND\r\nNOW RANGE FROM 65 TO 90 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ALBERTO\r\nTRACKS OVER VERY COLD WATER AFTER 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE\r\nNEGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 020/5.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nALBERTO WILL BE PICKED UP BY A MAJOR TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE\r\nEAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION WILL BE ABSORBED BY A SYNOPTIC\r\nSCALE LOW BEYOND 48 HOURS. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 38.8N  47.3W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 39.6N  46.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 41.7N  45.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 45.7N  43.2W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 51.0N  39.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z ...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":70,"Date":"2000-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  70\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE...45 N MI DIAMETER...EYE FILLED\r\nWITH LOW CLOUDS.  TAKING THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nGIVES ABOUT 75 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT WIND SPEED.  MUCH COOLER WATERS\r\nSHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW.  ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nABSORBED INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 020/5.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE\r\nACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY INCREASING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE\r\nOF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION GIVEN BY THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL...WHICH SHOULD HANDLE SUCH SYSTEMS QUITE WELL.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN MADE HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 39.3N  47.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 40.7N  46.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 43.8N  44.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 48.0N  42.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 53.0N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/1200...ABSORBED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":71,"Date":"2000-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  71\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KNOTS AS PER DVORAK ANALYSES...AND\r\nTHE EYE IS STILL APPARENT ON THE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY TO COMMENCE VERY SOON AS ALBERTO TRACKS OVER THE\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW...AND EVENTUALLY\r\nMERGE WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE...AND MOTION IS\r\nNOW ESTIMATED TO BE 020/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nBASICALLY THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORIES. \r\nCONTINUED ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFDL AND AVN GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 40.6N  46.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 42.4N  45.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 45.6N  43.2W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 55.0N  35.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z...ABSORBED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":72,"Date":"2000-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  72\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS TAKEN ON AN ELLIPTICAL SHAPE AND BEGUN TO\r\nSHRINK IN SIZE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KNOTS AS PER\r\nDVORAK ANALYSES.  HOWEVER...THIS HERALDS THE BEGINNING OF THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS AS THE EYE IS CURRENTLY OVER 24 DEGREE C WATER\r\nWITH SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW...AND EVENTUALLY\r\nMERGE WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nAT 025/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORIES. CONTINUED ACCELERATION IS\r\nEXPECTED AS ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND AVN\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 41.8N  45.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 43.9N  44.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 47.7N  41.7W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 52.3N  37.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 57.7N  31.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":73,"Date":"2000-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  73\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT THE EYE\r\nREMAINS QUITE WELL-DEFINED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 65 TO 77 KT.  GIVEN THE COOLING SSTS UNDER ALBERTO I HAVE SET\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY AT THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE.  THE WATER WILL\r\nCOOL DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALBERTO WILL LIKELY\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n020/15.  THIS ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS UNTIL ALBERTO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND/OR GETS ABSORBED BY A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 43.3N  44.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 46.1N  43.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 52.0N  40.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 59.0N  35.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z ...ABSORBED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":74,"Date":"2000-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  74\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/17.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE\r\nHURRICANE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND MERGING WITH A\r\nLOW AND TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER GREENLAND AND\r\nEXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  ALBERTO WILL BE\r\nOVER SSTS BELOW 20 DEG C IN 12 HOURS...AND SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AVIATION MODEL AND IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ACCELERATES THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 75 KNOTS.  THE\r\nINITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS PUT AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE COLD\r\nWATER MAKING THE LOWER LAYER MORE STABLE.  WEAKENING TO 50 KNOTS IS\r\nFORECAST AT 24 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 45.0N  43.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 47.7N  41.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 53.0N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 60.5N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alberto","Adv":75,"Date":"2000-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  75\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE THERE IS STILL SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN EYE AT THIS TIME...CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KNOTS.  THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES.  SINCE ALBERTO IS NOW MOVING OVER COLD WATERS...WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24\r\nHOURS IF NOT SOONER.  ALBERTOS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS SHOULD SOON\r\nMERGE WITH A HIGH LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE AS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING NNE NEAR 24 KNOTS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GENERAL CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION\r\nWITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 47.2N  41.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 50.5N  39.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 56.0N  34.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z...ABSORBED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":76,"Date":"2000-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  76\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n \r\nTHE REMAINING CONVECTION IS NOW RATHER ASYMMETRIC AND CONCENTRATED\r\nIN THE FORWARD SEMICIRCLE.  THE EYE IS ALSO BECOMING LESS DISTINCT. \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT...A BIT BELOW THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES...BECAUSE ALBERTO IS NOW OVER 17C WATER...IT IS PRESUMED\r\nTHAT THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IS LARGELY DECOUPLED FROM THE STRONGER\r\nCIRCULATION ABOVE.  SINCE ALBERTO IS NOW MOVING OVER COLD\r\nWATERS...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.  ALBERTOS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nREMNANTS SHOULD SOON MERGE WITH A HIGH LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING AT 045/32.  THIS\r\nMOTION IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A\r\nSLIGHT LEFT TURN IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE AVN.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 49.7N  37.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 53.9N  32.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 61.0N  26.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":77,"Date":"2000-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  77\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2000\r\n \r\nJUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE ALBERTO WAS HISTORY...IT DEVELOPED A LITTLE\r\nBURST OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIVES ANOTHER\r\n6 HOURS.  ALBERTO IS THE THIRD-LONGEST LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ON RECORD...BEHIND GINGER OF 1971 AND CARRIE OF 1957.  SHOULD\r\nIT LAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY...ALBERTO WILL TIE\r\nCARRIE.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THE\r\nCONVECTION IS BECOMING ELONGATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/40.\r\nWITH WATER TEMPERATURES NOW BELOW 15C...IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT\r\nALBERTO CAN MAINTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR MORE THAN A FEW\r\nMORE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AVN TRACK USING THE\r\nCURRENT FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 52.3N  34.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 57.0N  29.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW...\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":78,"Date":"2000-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  78\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2000\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALBERTO HAS BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nON ALBERTO...ONE OF THE TOP THREE LONGEST LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONES IN\r\nTHE ATLANTIC BASIN. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS 030/32 AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KTS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED AS A LOW IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER\r\nTHE HEADER HSFAT1 ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 54.6N  34.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 58.3N  28.6W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nTHE PERSISTENT SMALL LOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST HAS\r\nDEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION\r\nIS STILL RATHER SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED.  INDEED...THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT AND TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. IT\r\nMUST BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM IS SMALL...WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nCONFINED TO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGER\r\nTROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST.  THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH\r\nSHOULD SWEEP THE SYSTEM OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.  NHC TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nDETAILS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nIT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT IS HOLDING THE SYSTEM TOGETHER GIVEN THE LACK\r\nOF PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CENTER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE ENVIRONMENT TO\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY WILL NOT FOLLOW THAT. \r\nINSTEAD... THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT UNTIL MORE\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SMALL SIZE AND SLOW MOTION...THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY A\r\nTHREAT PRIMARILY TO MARINE INTERESTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 27.9N  77.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 27.9N  78.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N  78.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 28.3N  79.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  79.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 29.5N  77.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nA CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB AND 39 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS 7 NM\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SHOWS THAT DESPITE THE LACK OF\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGER\r\nTROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST.  THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BECOME WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST BY 36-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA. \r\nNHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AGAIN WITH SOME\r\nDISAGREEMENTS ON DETAILS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SMALL PUFFS OF CONVECTION WHICH\r\nARE SHEARED AWAY BY UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  NO INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS IT CAN DEVELOP PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS MIGHT HAPPEN WHEN THE SHEAR LETS UP IN 24 HR OR\r\nSO...WHICH IS HINTED AT BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.\r\n \r\nWITH THE SMALL SIZE AND SLOW MOTION...THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY A\r\nTHREAT PRIMARILY TO MARINE INTERESTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 27.9N  78.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 27.9N  78.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.2N  79.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 28.8N  79.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  79.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  76.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION THIS EVENING...AS IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY LITTLE\r\nCONVECTION.  BUOY 41010...LOCATED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...HAS BEEN REPORTING WINDS OF ABOUT 20 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS DEVELOP A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nCURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE LIFTS OUT...AND ALL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  ONLY THE LBAR\r\nINDICATES A LANDFALL ON THE UPPER FLORIDA COAST.  I HAVE ADJUSTED\r\nTHE FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BECAUSE\r\nOF THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION THIS EVENING AND BECAUSE I AM\r\nUNSURE WHETHER THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW CAN BE ESTABLISHED AS\r\nQUICKLY AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND AM THEREFORE ON THE LEFT SIDE\r\nOF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nUNTIL THE DEPRESSION CAN MAINTAIN CONVECTION IT WILL HAVE A\r\nDIFFICULT TIME INTENSIFYING.  MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND AT THAT TIME\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TINY TROPICAL STORM.  BY THIS TIME THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD ALREADY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.  GIVEN THE\r\nSMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE FACT THAT I AM WELL LEFT OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 28.2N  78.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 28.4N  79.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 28.9N  80.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 29.7N  80.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  79.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 32.5N  76.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nMELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR TEMPORARILY SHOWED WELL-ORGANIZED BANDING\r\nFEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL DEPRESSION.  WE ARE WAITING TO\r\nSEE A MORE PERSISTENT PATTERN OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR A SIGN OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  AT THIS TIME...WE ARE KEEPING THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS\r\nAND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED UNTIL THE\r\nDEPRESSION MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE COAST AND THE SHEAR\r\nRELAXES.  BY THEN...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nREACHES TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ABOUT 300/5.  THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nWEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nSTEER THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS EXCEPT CLIMATOLOGY WHICH BRINGS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION NEAR THE NORTH FLORIDA EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 28.4N  79.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 28.8N  80.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 29.5N  80.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N  79.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 31.5N  78.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 33.5N  74.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nWHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS INCREASED IN CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL LOOKS RAGGED\r\nDUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR.  ADDITIONALLY...REPORTS FROM BUOY 41010\r\nSUGGEST THE DEPRESSION HAS LOST THE TIGHT WIND CORE IT HAD OVER THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  DOPPLER WIND DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D\r\nDOES NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM WINDS AT THIS TIME.  THUS...THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING 035/6.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS HAVING MORE AFFECT ON THE\r\nDEPRESSION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE THE DEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD\r\nBETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND BERMUDA...WITH THE ONLY DISAGREEMENT BEING\r\nHOW FAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS IS TO\r\nGUARD AGAINST THIS BEING A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER RATHER THAN A\r\nTRUE MOTION.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THIS WILL DECREASE AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS WOULD ALLOW A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT AFTER 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST BOTH FOLLOW THIS IDEA...WITH THE FORECAST CALL FOR LESS\r\nINTENSIFICATION THAN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF\r\nCONCENTRATED CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 28.9N  78.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 29.7N  78.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 30.6N  77.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 31.6N  76.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 32.5N  74.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 35.0N  70.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DURING THE\r\nDAY...AS SPORADIC PUFFS OF CONVECTION ERUPT IN THE LOW CLOUD SWIRL\r\nAND QUICKLY DIE.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT IN THIS\r\nADVISORY.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN A LITTLE\r\nAND THE TIGHT CORE SEEN YESTERDAY HAS DISSIPATED...IT MIGHT BE A\r\nLITTLE WEAKER.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVED 090/5 DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS A POSSIBLY SLOWER MOTION.  THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS\r\nBECOMING COMPLEX.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL TRIGGER SOME KIND OF SURFACE\r\nDEVELOPMENT EITHER OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OR JUST OFF THE\r\nCOAST.  THE NOGAPS EVEN USES T.D. 4 TO TRIGGER THIS DEVELOPMENT. IF\r\nTHE BAROCLINIC LOW FORMS...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO WHISK T.D. 4 OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR\r\nIS THE DISTURBANCE EAST-NORTHEAST OF T.D. 4.  IT IS LARGER THAN THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND IT COULD KEEP T.D. 4 ON A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWER\r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY IF IT DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A FASTER TRACK CLOSER TO\r\nTHE BAROCLINIC LOW AND A SLOWER TRACK CAUSED BY THE DISTURBANCE...\r\nAND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE BAMS AND BAMM.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE CURRENTLY EASTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nDIMINISH IN THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO.  SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...IT COULD\r\nALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN.  ONE POSSIBILITY TO WATCH FOR IS\r\nTHAT TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING AHEAD OF BAROCLINIC SYSTEMS SOMETIMES\r\nSTRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY WHEN IN THE WARM SECTOR...OVER\r\nWARM WATER...AND EAST OF THE STRONG SHEAR IN THE JET STREAM CORE. \r\nT.D. 4 (AND THE DISTURBANCE) MAY WIND UP IN THIS SITUATION.  THE\r\nOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THIS SMALL AND POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONE\r\nMAY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 28.8N  78.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 28.8N  77.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  75.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 29.8N  73.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  71.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 36.5N  66.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nAS WAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE...THERE WAS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THIS SMALL AND POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONE MIGHT\r\nDISSIPATE BEFORE IT HAD A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN...AND IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHIS IS THE CASE.\r\n\r\nTHE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO PREVENT ANY DEVELOPMENT AND\r\nLATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST OVER THE\r\nREMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE REMNANTS OF THIS DEPRESSION ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS.  THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON TD-4\r\nUNLESS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 29.1N  78.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.  WHILE THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT\r\nBEEN ABLE TO LOCATE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...IT DID\r\nFIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 30\r\nKT.  THE UPGRADE IS BASED ON THESE WINDS...AND THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nCIRCULATION EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  \r\n \r\nA DEFINITE CENTER WILL LIKELY BE ELUSIVE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12-\r\n24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  AVAILABLE\r\nGUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. \r\nTHE 12Z AVN TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND IN SOUTH TEXAS IN 48 HOURS...BUT\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IN THE MODEL APPEARS TO BE ALREADY TOO FAR TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.   GIVEN THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE INITIAL LOCATION AND\r\nMOTION...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH FOLLOWS THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BUT IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER.\r\n\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM THIS ILL-DEFINED IS UNLIKELY. \r\nHOWEVER...SHOULD THE SYSTEM LINGER OVER THE GULF LONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 23.0N  93.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N  93.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 24.1N  93.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 25.4N  95.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 26.5N  97.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS OUT IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIVE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND FOUND A BROAD LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE\r\nINNER EDGE OF THE LARGER ENVELOPE. STRONGEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT\r\n1000 FT WERE ABOUT 35 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.\r\n \r\nUNTIL A DEFINITE CENTER DEVELOPS...SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE\r\nEXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHEN ONLY INFRARED SATELLITE FIXES\r\nWILL BE AVAILABLE. 00Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE THE STRONG RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS...WHILE THE THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA HAS ALSO REMAINED STATIONARY. THE RESULT IS A WEAK\r\nSTEERING FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE\r\nMODELS ALL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH\r\nALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS CUBA TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...\r\nBUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL TAKES\r\nTHE DEPRESSION FARTHEST NORTH TOWARD CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS IN 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER CUBA BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nYUCATAN AND UNDERCUTS THE SYSTEM...THEN THIS COULD IMPART A MORE\r\nPOLEWARD TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...AND THIS IS THE REASON WHY\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK WAS KEPT CLOSE TO MIDLE OF THE FORECAST MODEL\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED WITH THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO\r\nREACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW AND HURRICANE STRENGTH ON\r\nTUESDAY. THE SHIPS OUTPUT USED IN THE FIRST ADVISORY WAS BASED ON\r\nTHE LBAR MODEL TRACK WHICH HAD THE SYSTEM INLAND IN 36 HOURS. THE\r\nLATEST LBAR RUN DOES THE SAME THING. WITH THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LONGER OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND IN\r\nA LOW/NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 22.9N  93.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 23.4N  93.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N  94.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 24.7N  95.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 25.5N  97.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N 100.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nIT IS OF COURSE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nON INFRARED IMAGERY...IF IT EXISTS.  I AM PLACING IT NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LACK OF A BETTER PLACE TO\r\nPUT IT.  PIBALS FROM MEXICO...COURTESY OF NOAA/NSSL PAN AM SOUNDING\r\nNETWORK...SHOW THAT ANY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MUST BE SMALL AS A\r\nPIBAL JUST NORTHEAST OF CARMEN SHOWS LIGHT ENE WINDS AT 300 M.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ASSUMED TO BE 320/05...ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY\r\nMOTION WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE TRACK MODELS.  THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nSLOW WEST THROUGH NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS BASED ON\r\nSTEERING FROM A HIGH HOLDING OVER NORTH TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO.  THE\r\nUKMET IS QUITE SLOW NEARING THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST IN 72 HOURS WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL SHOWS A LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS JUST SOUTH OF THE US/MEX\r\nBORDER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES WITH A\r\nLANDFALL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS NEAR THE BORDER.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB TO 25\r\nKNOTS FROM SAB AND AFWA BASED ON LARGE VARIATIONS IN CENTER\r\nPOSITION.  THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS BASED\r\nON A NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER IT IS\r\nNOTED THAT THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST COULD SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF\r\nSOME SERIOUS INTENSIFICATION...BUT A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nTAKE A LOOK AT 12Z.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SUGGESTS THAT WIND\r\nSPEEDS COULD REACH 70 KNOTS IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER FOR 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE WINDS TO 65 KNOTS IN 48\r\nHOURS...ACTUALLY IN ABOUT 42 HOURS...JUST BEFORE THE FORECAST\r\nLANDFALL. \r\n\r\nWHILE IT IS POSSIBLE TO JUSTIFY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A SMALL\r\nPORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...IT IS\r\nRECOMMENDED THAT WE WAIT UNTIL DAYLIGHT AND THE RECON INFORMATION\r\nBEFORE ISSUING ANY WATCHES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 23.2N  94.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 23.7N  94.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 24.4N  95.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 25.3N  96.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  97.8W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 27.5N 101.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BERYL WITH THIS ADVISORY.  THEY ALSO\r\nFOUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAD REFORMED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL THOUGHT TO BE\r\n310/5...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS LATER IN THE\r\nAFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK...THE UNCERTAINTY IS MAINLY WITH THE SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND\r\nWITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND WE ARE FORECASTING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  THIS IN SPITE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR EVIDENT\r\nON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE SYSTEM DID PASS OVER AN AREA OF\r\nUNUSUALLY HIGH HEAT CONTENT THIS MORNING THAT MAY HAVE BEEN INVOLVED\r\nWITH THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 23.6N  95.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 24.1N  96.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 24.7N  97.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 25.6N  98.3W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  99.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 28.0N 103.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nTZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED DILIGENTLY\r\nTO FIND THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE MORNING RESEMBLED A TROUGH AXIS RATHER THAN A TRUE\r\nCENTER.  BY THE CONCLUSION OF THE MISSION...A REASONABLE CENTER WAS\r\nLOCATED AND WE THANK THE CREW FOR THEIR HARD WORK.  WITH THIS FIX\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE FASTER THAN BEFORE...ABOUT 7 OR 8\r\nKT.  THIS MEANS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MAKING LANDFALL SOONER...\r\nPERHAPS IN 12-18 HOURS...WHICH LESSENS THE LIKELIHOOD THAT BERYL\r\nWILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IF THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...THEN THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNINGS MAY BE REPLACED WITH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS THIS EVENING.\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WESTNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED FOR SPEED BUT THE\r\nLANDFALL POINT REMAINS THE SAME...SOUTH OF THE BORDER.  \r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND THE\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.  MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS ARE WELL EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED FOR\r\nTHE TIME BEING...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY RAPID INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST\r\nBUT NOT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 24.2N  96.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 24.6N  97.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 25.2N  98.7W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 25.9N 100.3W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 26.5N 102.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z ...DISSIPATED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT IN BERYL THIS EVENING HAS HAD SOME\r\nDIFFICULTY IN LOCATING A SPECIFIC CENTER. THIS IS NOT UNEXPECTED\r\nGIVEN THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN SEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE\r\nWSR-88D RADAR REFLECTIVITY PATTERN. SMALL CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE\r\nBEEN FIRING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER WHICH\r\nHAS RESULTED IN THE SPINUP OF SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS BASED ON THE LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION SEEN IN RADAR\r\nANIMATIONS...AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON RECON SURFACE AND FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS...AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE BROAD CENTER OF BERYL\r\nSHOULD MOVE INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 6\r\nTO 12 HOURS. THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS AGREE ON A \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION CAN LOCALLY SPINUP WINDS TO 50 OR 55\r\nKT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT BERYL WILL\r\nREACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD AT\r\n45 KT IN 12 HOURS EVEN THOUGH BERYL WILL BE INLAND. THIS WAS DONE TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION WHICH COULD STILL BE OVER WATER AT THAT TIME. THE WIND\r\nRADII WERE ALSO SHIFTED MORE TOWARD THE EAST SEMICIRCLE TO ACCOUNT\r\nFOR LAND INTERACTION TO THE WEST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 24.3N  97.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 24.8N  98.4W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.3N  99.8W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 25.8N 101.4W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON...SATELLITE...AND RADAR SHOW THE POORLY DEFINED\r\nCENTER OF BERYL REACHED THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AT 06Z.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nCONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION UNDER STEERING FROM A HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES THE\r\nSTORM INLAND OVER MEXICO WHERE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR\r\nSO.\r\n\r\nRECON SHOWED WINDS TO 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO.  ALSO A SHIP JUST OUT OF TAMPICO\r\nREPORTED 35 KNOTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SO THE WIND SPEED IS PUT\r\nAT 40 KNOTS AT 09Z AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO WILL BE CONTINUED FOR A\r\nFEW MORE HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTH TEXAS COAST...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF ANY STRONG WINDS AND\r\nWARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED THERE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 24.2N  98.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 24.3N  99.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 24.8N 100.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 25.5N 102.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PATROLLING THE\r\nCOAST DID NOT FIND ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAINING...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED.  RADAR INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING AT\r\n290/8...A TRACK WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 25.0N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.4N 100.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N 102.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nTHE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF BERYL\r\nIS BECOMING ELONGATED PARALLEL TO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO.  WITH THE CENTER BECOMING ILL-DEFINED...EVEN FOR BERYL...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO\r\nTHE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINS...DANGEROUS FLASH\r\nFLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES CAN BE EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 25.4N 100.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N 102.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS PRETTY MEAGER...THE STRONG\r\nTROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION AND IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSIX.  OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND WEST QUADRANTS UNDER LIGHT\r\nSHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INDICATE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES\r\nAHEAD OF THE SYSTEM GETTING OUT OF THE WAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS PRESENT IN THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY KEEPING THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE\r\nCARIBBEAN.  HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THEN IT COULD TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...AS INDICATED BY THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 14.9N  53.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.3N  54.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  56.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.6N  58.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  64.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND CONFINED TO A FEW CLUSTERS\r\nWHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES.   IT IS HIGHLY\r\nSURPRISING TO SEE THIS DEPRESSION NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME\r\nSINCE THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.  OBVIOUSLY THERE IS\r\nMORE TO STRENGTHENING THAN THESE TWO FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.\r\nHOWEVER... SINCE THESE TWO IMPORTANT PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN FAVORABLE...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS.  THIS IS ALSO BASED ON SHIPS AND THE GFDL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDURING THE CURRENT FORMATIVE STAGE...BOTH INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE CENTER MAY BE REFORMING A LITTLE\r\nBIT TO THE NORTH WHERE THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING.  THE OVERALL\r\nSYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THERE WILL BE ONLY A WEAK TO MODERATE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  CONSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE\r\nWEATHER... WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS BUT ANY UNEXPECTED DEVIATION TO THE LEFT...COULD\r\nBRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO SOME OF THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 15.4N  54.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.6N  55.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  56.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  58.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  60.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  65.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n \r\nA PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR OR TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE HARD TO LOCATE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.  THE EXACT\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER IMPORTANT...BECAUSE IF THE CENTER\r\nIS NEAR THE CONVECTION THE SYSTEM IS MOVING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THIS ADVISORY WILL KEEP THE\r\nCENTER CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND AT 30 KT INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8.  A LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS PRESENT NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION ON A\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND NHC TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS.  ONE NOTE ABOUT THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH WAS THE NORTHERNMOST MODEL 6 HR AGO...IS NOW THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST MODEL.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION...THERE IS\r\nONLY A SMALL NUDGING NORTHWARD OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR 24-48 HR BEFORE\r\nDECREASING.  THIS SHEAR IS NOT STRONG...SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO\r\nIS THAT IT WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nGOES WITH THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HR AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT.  \r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON. \r\nDEPENDING ON THE EXACT POSITION...COURSE...AND INTENSITY...WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 15.6N  54.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N  55.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N  57.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.8N  59.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N  61.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  66.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER...AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT WERE GIVEN BY TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND KGWC. EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT AND TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SIX IS NOW TROPICAL STORM CHRIS. OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD\r\nTO THE NORTH...FAIR TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND POOR ELSEWHERE. AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM LATER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AND WILL GIVE US MORE ACCURATE POSITION AND INTENSITY\r\nINFORMATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  ALTHOUGH THE GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST THE PAST 6 HOURS...OUR FEELING IS THAT THE\r\nNORTHWARD JUMP IN THE CENTER POSITION IS DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE \r\nRE-ORGANIZATION. THERE IS GOOD CLUSTERING OF THE DYNAMIC MODELS\r\nAROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WHILE THE STATISTICAL-BASED\r\nMODELS HAVE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE GFDL HAS BEEN FLIP-\r\nFLOPPING BACK AND FORTH EITHER SIDE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACKS...WHEREAS\r\nTHE UKMET HAS CONSISTENTLY KEPT THE SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD\r\nAND PUERTO RICO. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON BUILDING AT LEAST\r\nA 592 DM 500 MB HIGH WESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH OF CHRIS.\r\nGIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGING\r\nTO THE NORTH TO KEEP CHRIS MOVING ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\nBY 72 HOURS...THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS UNCERTAIN.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE 500 MB RIDGE...BUT KEEP THE SURFACE TO\r\n700 MB RIDGE INTACT. THE RESULT MAY BE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nMORE THAN WE ARE INDICATING AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS.\r\n\r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CHRIS WILL REMAIN UNDER AT\r\nLEAST WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH 48 TO 60 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WILL ALSO ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED AND WITH A 30\r\nTO 40 KT OUTFLOW JET PRESENT TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE LEAST...SOME\r\nSLOW INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nTAKES CHRIS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF\r\nCHRIS SLOWS DOWN AFTER 48 HOURS AND ALLOWS THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE SYSTEM...THEN MORE STRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR THAN IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 16.7N  55.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N  57.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 18.4N  59.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 19.4N  61.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 20.3N  63.6W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.3N  67.9W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CHRIS HAS\r\nBECOME LESS ORGANIZED. RECON FOUND A VORTEX IN THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE BROAD CIRCULATION...WHILE SATELLITE INDICATES A GOOD MID-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE RECON AND SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 35 KT...MAINLY IN SQUALLS. OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nNOW AND IMPROVING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE STORM MOTION DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF\r\nTHE BROAD CENTER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF CHRIS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD\r\nWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE UKMET IS FARTHER NORTH\r\nTHAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFDL...GFDN...AND GFDU MODELS\r\nKEEP CHRIS FARTHER SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND STILL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS REFORMS FARTHER WEST...\r\nTHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS BY TOMORROW MORNING.\r\n\r\nUNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED...LITTLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT CHRIS HAS ENTRAINED SOME DRY AIR INTO THE EAST\r\nSEMICIRCLE WHICH HAS DELAYED THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...\r\nIF CHRIS SLOWS DOWN THEN THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN\r\nANTICIPATED. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS CHRIS TO 69 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 17.0N  56.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.7N  58.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.7N  60.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.7N  62.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.7N  64.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 22.3N  68.7W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chris","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 18 2000\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  SATELLITE POSITIONS ARE ABOUT 90\r\nN MI NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT 1500 FT FIXES...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SATELLITE CENTER IS A MID LEVEL ONE OR THAT THERE\r\nIS MORE THAN ONE CENTER.  IN EITHER CASE...THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL\r\nDEFINED.  THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT UNTIL THE LAST\r\nTWO HOURS WHEN A COUPLE OF SMALL BURSTS OCCURRED.  BECAUSE OF THE\r\nABOVE AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF UNDER 25\r\nKNOTS AND 1011 MB...CHRIS IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION OVER WARM SSTS TO 65 KNOTS IN 72\r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS EXCEPT 5 KNOTS LESS. \r\nANOTHER AIRCRAFT RECON MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 12Z.\r\n\r\nI HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...SO I\r\nHAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION.  THE STEERING IS PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 70-80 WEST LONGITUDE.\r\nTHE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL FSU MODEL ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nBUT A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE THE GFDL AND FSU MODELS. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 17.2N  56.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.8N  57.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N  59.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.8N  61.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N  63.7W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 24.0N  69.5W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chris","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\n \r\nCHRIS REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A DIFFICULT TO LOCATE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE FIXES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE ABOUT 60 NM APART...\r\nAND MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE\r\nFARTHER WEST THAN EITHER FIX.  THE UNCERTAINTY MEANS THAT A GREAT\r\nDEAL OF CONTINUITY AND EXTRAPOLATION WILL BE USED IN THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  A LARGE LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF CHRIS...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING INTO A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH TIME...WHICH MAY\r\nALLOW CHRIS TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD.  MOST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREFLECTS THIS.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER IS FURTHER WEST...THE SYSTEM\r\nWOULD BE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCOMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO POSSIBILITIES AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSOME CONVECTION IS PRESENT NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO CAUSE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR COULD CONTINUE FOR\r\n24-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THERE IS\r\nSOME CHANCE CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  TO\r\nKEEP SOME CONTINUITY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SLOW THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY FORECAST INTENSIFICATION BY 12 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 17.9N  57.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.6N  59.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 19.7N  61.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.8N  62.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  65.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N  70.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chris","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND A WELL-\r\nDEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION AND THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A\r\nBROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW SQUALLS TO THE NORTHEAST.  A\r\n0948Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED CHRIS AS MAINLY AN OPEN WAVE IN\r\nTHE SURFACE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/14.  THE CENTER OF CHRIS HAS BEEN RELOCATED\r\nFARTHER WEST BASED ON RECON AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATING A SMALL SWIRL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  RECON WENT THROUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAT 1500 FT AND FOUND ONLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nBAND.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION ARE BOTH\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER ON THE SYSTEM SHOULD PREVENT\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS MAY\r\nBECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING...AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE SHIPS MODEL.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR\r\nPOSSIBLE REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 18.6N  61.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 19.6N  63.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\n\r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH HAS\r\nBEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO\r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CREDIT IS GIVEN TO THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...BOTH MRF AND UK...WHICH SYSTEMATICALLY HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING THIS DEVELOPMENT.  BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF\r\n2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS SHIP\r\nOBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS A LARGE  ENVELOPE...THERE IS NO SHEAR...THE OCEAN IS\r\nWARM AND WITH THESE THREE PARAMETERS SO FAVORABLE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS IN 48\r\nHOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLOW COMPARED TO SHIPS...WHICH\r\nBRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 90 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CURRENT BROAD CIRCULATION\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE.  BEST ESTIMATE\r\nIS 280/15.  IT IS FORECAST THAT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PERSIST AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN.  THIS WOULD\r\nFAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THIS FORECAST MOTION IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...THE UK...LBAR AND CLIMATOLOGY. AS\r\nANTICIPATED...BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE BRING\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE EITHER TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS OR JUST SOUTH OF\r\nCUBA. \r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM AND SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE ACTIONS IN CASE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES AS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 12.4N  45.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.8N  47.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.5N  50.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.5N  53.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N  57.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N  64.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2000\r\nCHANGE DEPRESSION NAME FROM \"TEST\" TO \"SEVEN\" IN HEADER\r\n \r\nTHE NORTH/SOUTH LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  A RECENT QUICKSCAT PUTS A\r\nCENTER NEAR 10N.  TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 11.7N AND 12.3N RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL POSITION IS AT 12.5N WHICH IS CLOSER TO A COLD\r\nSYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE.  IF THE CENTER IS UNDER THIS CDO...WE COULD\r\nHAVE A 50K KNOT STORM...BUT IF IT IS FURTHER SOUTH...THE SYSTEN\r\nCOULD BE DISORGANIZED.  IN ANY CASE THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nTHIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS 80 KNOTS IN 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nSHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS INFLUENCED BY THIS FEATURE AND SHOW A\r\nCONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET AND THREATENS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS IN 72 HOURS AFTER PASSING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nWE ARE PROBABLY ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AWAY FROM NEEDING A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 12.6N  46.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 13.2N  48.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.0N  51.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.9N  54.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.7N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N  64.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS IN THE ORGANIZING PHASE.  EARLIER...THERE WAS\r\nPRIMARILY A COLD CENTRAL OVERCAST FEATURE.  HOWEVER...RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BANDING FEATURES STARTING TO DEVELOP.  BECAUSE\r\nOF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION RELATIVE TO THE CLOUD\r\nFEATURES...THE CYCLONE IS NOT BEING UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A NEW TROPICAL STORM\r\nLATER TODAY.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER\r\nTHE AREA...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OCEAN WATERS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nAN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST...BUT THIS\r\nFEATURE IS MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS\r\nTHE SYSTEM ATTAINING HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS SO HARD TO FIND...INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION\r\nARE RATHER UNCERTAIN.  LATEST FIXES ARE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  I HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.  A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS PREDICTED.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS\r\nNEARLY THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS\r\nSOLUTIONS.  THE LATEST AVN FORECAST IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THIS\r\nTRACK.  NONETHELESS IT IS IMPORTANT TO BEAR IN MIND THAT 72-HOUR\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS CAN HAVE ERRORS OF A FEW HUNDRED MILES.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 13.5N  47.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.9N  49.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.8N  52.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.6N  55.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N  65.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES AND INCREASED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 40 KT AND MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM DEBBY.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IMPROVING.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/16.  THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO CONVECTIVE REORGANIZATION...\r\nBUT IT SHOULD BE NEAR OR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS DEBBY ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL...UKMET AND THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION BEYOND THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nDEBBY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND SHOULD\r\nREACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THEREAFTER...SOME SHEAR MAY SLOW DOWN\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION RATE AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 14.3N  49.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N  52.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N  55.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N  58.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N  61.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N  68.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BANDING OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE CENTER POSITION IS STILL\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  A 1506Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED A TIGHT MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OR EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE 85GHZ ICE DATA...WHILE THE\r\n37GHZ CHANNEL AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS LOCATED ABOUT 25 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT\r\nARE INDICATED BY TAFB AND SAB...I FELT IT BEST TO HOLD THE INTENSITY\r\nDOWN SOME UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS BECOME\r\nVERTICALLY STACKED. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/17.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM CENTER...THERE MAY BE SOME LARGE WOBBLES ALONG THE TRACK.\r\nTHE OVERALL WIND AND CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD\r\nTODAY...WHILE THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING AND WOBBLING\r\nAROUND INSIDE THE ENVELOPE.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nAGREE ON BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nDEBBY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON 590 DM\r\nHEIGHTS AND EAST WINDS IN THE 12Z RAOB DATA OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nCARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  ALSO...RECENT SYNOPTIC DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE\r\nGULFSTREAM JET AIRCRAFT INDICATED A DEEP LAYER MEAN STEERING FLOW\r\nFROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 KT NORTH OF DEBBY.  THIS NEW DATA WILL BE\r\nINCORPORATED INTO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS...AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE\r\nNORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nCLOSE TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nDEBBY IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND REACH\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...SOME SHEAR MAY\r\nSLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 15.2N  51.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.9N  53.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 16.9N  57.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N  60.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  64.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 20.5N  70.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION...CHANGE WINDWARD TO LEEWARD ISLANDS...\r\n\r\nONCE AGAIN THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  A RECENT SSM/I IMAGE\r\nINDICATES A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  HOWVER THE CDO\r\nFEATURE IS LARGE...COLD...AND SYMMETRIC AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR LOW LEVEL ORGAINIZATION.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS WITH WARM SSTS\r\nAND ONLY SLIGHTLY LIMITING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDOES LIKEWISE...ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS GOING TO HAVE TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED FOR THIS FORECAST TO VERIFY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nARE ALL CLUSTERED CLOSELY TOGETHER AROUND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK AT 15 KNOTS OR A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON THIS AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nEXCEPT FOR ADVANCING EVERYTHING SIX HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR WATCHES THROUGHOUT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\nFROM NORTH OF DOMINICA THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE\r\nGOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND GUADELOUPE\r\nHAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 15.4N  52.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 16.1N  55.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N  59.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 17.6N  62.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 18.6N  65.8W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N  71.5W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DEBBY IS STILL HARD TO LOCATE.  RECENT SATELLITE FIXES\r\nNUDGE THE SYSTEM A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nAND NIGHTTIME MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY HINTS THAT IT MIGHT EVEN BE\r\nSOUTH OF 15N.  IN VIEW OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...THIS PACKAGE CONTAINS A\r\nLOT OF CONTINUITY AND EXTRAPOLATION.  SOME RE-LOCATION MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY IN THE NEXT PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/16.  A STRONG LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DEBBY SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 72 HR...THE RIDGE\r\nMAY WEAKEN AS THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nRE-INTENSIFIES.  HOWEVER...ANY MAJOR CHANGE THIS MIGHT CAUSE IN THE\r\nTRACK OF DEBBY WILL LIKELY OCCUR AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ONLY\r\nCHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD NUDGING.\r\n\r\nWHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT...55 KT...AND 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE CENTER IS.  DEBBY HAS THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...AND THE SATELLITE WIND\r\nSHEAR PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES\r\nABOUT 10 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND SOME LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SOME AMOUNT OF SHEAR\r\nCOULD CONTINUE...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DOWN.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  NOTE THAT SOME\r\nADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE AFTER AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER ARRIVES AT 12Z.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 15.6N  54.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.1N  57.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N  60.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N  63.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 18.5N  66.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N  72.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EXACT CENTER OF DEBBY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS HAD A HARD TIME CLOSING OFF A WELL-\r\nDEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...RECON ALSO FOUND 88 KT WINDS AT 1000 FT IN\r\nTHE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE APPARENT CENTER.   BASED ON THE\r\nSEVERAL WIND REPORTS OF 80 TO 88 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT.  WE HAVE KEPT DEBBY JUST BELOW MINIMAL HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/19.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH REMAINS STRONG AND SHOULD KEEP DEBBY ON A GENERAL WEST\r\nOR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU.S. AND OVER THE BAHAMAS WHICH MAY ACT TO DECREASE THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND ALLOW FOR SOME POLEWARD MOTION TO OCCUR AFTER 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES DEBBY ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND OVER THE\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND SOUTH OF ANDROS ISLAND IN\r\n72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE UKMET MODELS.  NOTE...THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY CREATE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nTHE TRACK AND IF DEBBY TRACKS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE OF\r\nHISPANIOLA...THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD CUBA IS POSSIBLE IN\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  \r\nHOWEVER...BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE WIND AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION\r\nOF DEBBY...IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS JUST A LITTLE BIT AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...THEN WE\r\nCOULD BE DEALING WITH A STRONGER AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM AS\r\nIT MOVES THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 15.7N  57.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.2N  60.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N  63.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.0N  67.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N  70.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 21.0N  75.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\n \r\nDEBBY REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM...MAINLY DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION MOVING FASTER THAN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS.  AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\n1500 FT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n60 KT.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/19.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nCONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR EACH CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT AND THEN MOVES OUT TO THE WEST...SO WE BASICALLY WENT WITH\r\nMIDDLE OF THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE AND JUST NORTH OF THE RECON\r\nFIXES.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT AND SHOULD\r\nHELP TO KEEP DEBBY ON A GENERAL WEST OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nSLOW DOWN DEBBY AND ALLOW A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE UKMET MODEL TAKES DEBBY MORE POLEWARD THROUGH THE\r\nBAHAMAS AFTER 48 HOURS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT DOES THAT.\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING BACK AND FORTH EITHER SIDE OF\r\nOUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECASTS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE GFDL AND A LITTLE NORTH OF\r\nTHE AVIATION/AVN MODEL.\r\n \r\nSLOW AND STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...IF DEBBY SLOWS JUST A FEW KNOTS...THEN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WOULD BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED...MAKING\r\nDEBBY MUCH STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON AND 18Z WIND\r\nREPORTS...WHILE THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 16.3N  59.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.7N  62.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 17.8N  65.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 18.8N  68.8W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N  71.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 22.5N  76.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2000\r\nCORRECTION...INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 60 KNOTS\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS RELOCATED NORTHWARD BASED ON RADAR IMAGES FROM\r\nGUADELOUPE AND ON A RECENT AIR FORCE RECON FIX.  EXCEPT FOR SHIFTING\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST TRACK NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 N\r\nMI...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nTO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...GFDL RUN OFF OF NOGAPS...AVN AND FSU EXPERIMENTAL ALL\r\nSHOW THIS.  ONLY THE UKMET HINTS AT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THIS\r\nIS AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRECON REPORTS THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE DROPPED 8 MB IN A COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS TO 996 MB.  THIS AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A NORTHERN HALF OF AN EYE\r\nWALL FEATURE ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR ARE THE FIRST SIGNS THAT DEBBIE\r\nMAY ACTUALLY BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 75 KNOTS IN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 17.2N  61.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N  63.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 18.7N  67.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 19.4N  70.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N  73.7W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  78.0W    80 KTS\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Debby","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n \r\nDEBBY HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A 65 KT HURRICANE DURING THE NIGHT BASED\r\nON DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS OF HURRICANE FORCE SURFACE WINDS.  AN\r\nEARLIER SHARP DROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LIKELY CAUSED BY A\r\nSUPERCELL-TYPE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  THIS\r\nTIGHTLY-WOUND FEATURE QUICKLY DISSIPATED AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nROSE FROM 991 MB TO 994 MB.  SINCE THEN...THE GUADELOUPE RADAR HAS\r\nSHOWN THE FORMATION OF A MORE CLASSIC BANDING PATTERN.\r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/18.  THE REASON FOR THIS MIGHT BE THE\r\nSOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BLOWING ACROSS THE NOW DEEPER VORTEX.\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...AS LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGING SHOULD KEEP DEBBY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  DESPITE THIS...SOME DIFFERENCES HAVE\r\nDEVELOPED IN THE MODELS.  THE NOGAPS AND AVN TAKE DEBBY ON A MORE\r\nWESTERLY COURSE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nTHEY ARE SUPPORTED BY THE BAMS AND THE NHC90.  THE UKMET CALLS FOR A\r\nMORE NORTHERLY MOTION...TAKING DEBBY THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN\r\nBAHAMAS.  IT IS SUPPORTED BY LBAR AND VICBAR.  THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE\r\nDOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAGREES BEST WITH THE GFDN.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A STAIR-STEP\r\nTRACK...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION NOW FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION LATER.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH\r\nINDICATES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BETWEEN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND\r\nBERMUDA...AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL FORECAST OF HEIGHT RISES OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 24-36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE CONTINUED RAPID MOTION IS KEEPING ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR OVER\r\nDEBBY...WHICH IS SLOWING INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS LIKELY TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO EARLY IN THE PERIOD FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW AND UNSTEADY.  AS THE STORM\r\nSLOWS...CONDITIONS MAY BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF DEBBY IS\r\nNOT OVER HISPANIOLA OR IS NOT UNDER THE 200 MB NORTHWEST FLOW\r\nFORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HR.  IF THESE\r\nEXTREMES DO NOT OCCUR...DEBBY MAY BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 17.7N  62.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N  65.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.4N  68.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 20.4N  71.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N  74.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 23.5N  78.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Debby","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n\r\n515 \r\nWTNT42 KNHC 221506\r\nTCDAT2\r\nHURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n \r\nAN EYE FEATURE HAS CONTINUED TO SPIN UP AND SPIN DOWN IN ABOUT 3\r\nHOURS INCREMENTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND RECON AND RADAR DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT DEBBY MAY BE WRAPPING UP AN EYE AGAIN.  OUTFLOW HAS\r\nIMPROVED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/19.  HOWEVER...RECENT RECON AND RADAR\r\nREPORTS SUGGEST THAT DEBBY MAY BE MAKING ANOTHER WOBBLE TO THE WEST\r\nAND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERN\r\nEYEWALL MAY JUST SKIRT THE NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  IN THE LONGER TERM...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD WITH THE UKMET MODEL SLOWLY TRACKING\r\nDEBBY NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.   ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND BAHAMAS...BUT THE UKMET DIGS THE\r\nNORTHERN U.S. TROUGH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. \r\nHOWEVER...EVEN THE UKMET MODEL MAINTAINS THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF DEBBY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK MERELY SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 8 KT IN 72 HOURS RATHER\r\nTHAN RECURVING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n  \r\nTHE RAPID MOTION OF DEBBY SHOULD KEEP ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING FOR PROBABLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nAND IN 36 HOURS...SOME SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF HISPANIOLA MAY\r\nHINDER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  HOWEVER...BY THE 48 AND 72 HOUR\r\nPERIODS...DEBBY SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ANY LAND EFFECTS AND BE OVER 29C\r\nOR HIGHER SSTS. THE WARM WATER AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN WOULD\r\nTEND TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND DEBBY COULD POSSIBLY\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL\r\nTAKES DEBBY DOWN TO 937 MB IN 72 HOURS.  WE ARE FOLLOWING THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL...UNTIL THE INNER CORE OF\r\nDEBBY BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.  FORECAST INTENSITIES MAY BE\r\nADJUSTED HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 18.5N  64.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.2N  67.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 20.3N  70.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N  73.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N  75.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N  78.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Debby","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n \r\nA RAGGED 25NM DIAMETER EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE SAN JUAN RADAR DATA\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE SPUN UP SMALL\r\nEYEWALL MESOVORTICES WHICH HAVE DISTORTED THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE\r\nEYE.  THIS HAS MADE IT A DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE EXACT POSITION\r\nOF THE CENTER OF DEBBY.  SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THE\r\nINNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WHILE THE\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/18.  DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nTRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA\r\nTONIGHT.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE\r\nAXIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE CAROLINAS AND TO\r\nNORTHEAST OF DEBBY.  ALL THE MODELS ALSO AGREE ON MAINTAINING A\r\nWEAKENESS IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS THROUGH 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE TRICKY\r\nIN DETERMINING JUST HOW WEAK AND BROAD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nWILL BE. THE 12 UKMET MODEL IS NOW 120 NM WEST OF THE PREVIOUS 00Z \r\n3 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN IS ALREADY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE CURRENT POSITION.  BASED ON THE NEW 12 AVN MODEL RUN\r\nBRINGING DEBBY CLOSER TO SOUTH FLORIDA IN 72 HOURS...WE SEE NO\r\nREASON TO MAKE ANY SIGNFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET...AND THE AVN\r\nMODEL.  THERE IS ALSO LESS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE OTHER FORECAST\r\nMODELS WHICH ARE NOW CONVERGING ON OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE RAPID MOTION OF DEBBY SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT \r\nINTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING FOR PROBABLY THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN 36\r\nHOURS...SOME SOUTHERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF HISPANIOLA MAY ALSO HINDER\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  HOWEVER...AFTER 48 HOURS...DEBBY WILL\r\nBE CLEAR OF ANY LAND EFFECTS AND BE OVER VERY WARM WATER.  WITH THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND THE DEEP UPEPR-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO THE EAST ACTING AS A MASS SINK...SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AND DEBBY COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  IN FACT...THE NEW GFDL MODEL RUN TAKES\r\nDEBBY DOWN TO AROUND 935 MB IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 19.1N  66.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.8N  68.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N  72.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N  74.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N  76.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 25.0N  78.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Debby","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000\r\n\r\nDEBBY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS ANTICIPATED BASED ON CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nAND WIND REPORTS FROM THE VARIOUS RECONNAISSANCE PLANES THAT HAVE\r\nBEEN IN DEBBY DURING THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS.  THERE ARE ONLY A FEW\r\nSPOTS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 998\r\nMB...A VALUE WHICH...ON AVERAGE IS HIGH FOR A HURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING WESTWARD...THERE ARE SOME UPPER-\r\nLEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. AS LONG AS THIS\r\nSHEAR PERSISTS...NO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. IN\r\nADDITION...DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DEBBY WILL BE MOVING\r\nNORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND THE HIGH MOUNTAINS WILL\r\nPROBABLY CUT THE INFLOW FROM THE SOUTH.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION AND BOTH GFDL AND THE COUPLED GFDL MAKE DEBBY A\r\nVERY STRONG HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR NO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DEBBY IS MOVING\r\nNORTH OF HISPANIOLA WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nDATA FROM SEVERAL DROPWINDSONDES RELEASED THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT\r\nA 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEAST\r\nUNITED STATES TO NORTH OF DEBBY AND THAT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS \r\nMOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY.  PERHAPS...THIS IS THE REASON WHY\r\nDEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND\r\nDEBBY WILL RESUME ITS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.   ON THIS TRACK...DEBBY WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST IN 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE\r\nGFDL..UK AND THE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE.  \r\n\r\nDEBBY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 19.4N  67.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.3N  70.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  72.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N  74.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  76.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  79.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Debby","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2000\r\n \r\nDEBBY HAS AGAIN SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 6 HR.\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 995 MB AND 74 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. \r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM SAN JUAN INDICATE A SERIES OF EYEWALL MESOVORTICES\r\nHAVE FORMED AND THEN DISSIPATED DURING THE NIGHT...AS THE EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION HAS HAD TROUBLE WRAPPING MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER.  ONE NOTABLE ASPECT IS THAT A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE INDICATES\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER MAY BE WEST OF THE 700 MB CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC FLOW MISSION\r\nTONIGHT RELEASED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THESE SHOWED THAT DEBBY IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...\r\nAND IS ALREADY PASSING WEST OF THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR BERMUDA.  THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nKEEP DEBBY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HR.  THE\r\nDROPSONDES HAVE CAUSED INTERESTING CHANGES IN THE MODELS.  ALL\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION ALONG THE\r\nNORTH COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS\r\nINCLUDES THE UKMET...WHICH 12 HR AGO WAS MOVING DEBBY NORTHWARD EAST\r\nOF FLORIDA.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL\r\nAMPLIFY SOUTHWARD BY 48 TO 72 HR.  THE QUESTION IS WILL DEBBY BE\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO IT?  THREE MODELS THAT SAY YES ARE LBAR\r\nAND VICBAR...WHICH KEEP DEBBY EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nTAKES IT TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS.  IN VIEW OF THE SIZE OF THE\r\nCHANGES...THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME.  A MORE SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENT CAN WAIT\r\nUNTIL THERE IS MORE EVIDENCE OF WESTWARD MOTION AND MORE CONSISTENCY\r\nIN THE MODEL RUNS.\r\n\r\nTHE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 200-300 MB\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OF DEBBY.  THIS HAS HELPED INHIBIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  A COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND PROXIMITY TO HISPANIOLA\r\nSHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FOR THE 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AND ALLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL SO FAR...NOW TAKES DEBBY TO 81 KT\r\nBY 72 HR.  AN EXTREME OUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS A 926 MB\r\nPRESSURE AS DEBBY REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THIS LOOKS SUSPECT...AS\r\nIT IS ALREADY STRONGER THAN REALITY AND A LOT OF DEEPENING OCCURS AS\r\nTHE MODEL STORM MOVES ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...DEBBY COULD BE A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 19.7N  68.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 20.3N  70.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N  72.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 22.0N  75.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N  77.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 25.5N  80.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2000\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND A TIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THIS MORNING\r\nWITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION HAS LIKELY BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW\r\nOFF THE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS\r\nIMPRESSIVE IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE DUE\r\nTO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 60 KT\r\nBASED ON SEVERAL RECON DROPSONDES INDICATING 55 TO 60 KT WIND NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER IN THE WEAKENING CONVECTION AROUND 12Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14.  CENTER LOCATIONS FROM RECON\r\nINDICATE CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATION IN THE FORWARD SPEED RANGING FROM\r\n19 KT DOWN TO 12 KT.  AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nBASED ON CONTINUITY AND PERSISTENCE.  AFTER THE UKMET MODEL MADE A\r\nHUGE CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF DEBBY BETWEEN THE 22/12Z AND 23/00Z\r\nRUNS...I HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS OF ITS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  THE UKMET INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEAK SYSTEM...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE MODEL IS BASING THE STEERING MAINLY ON THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL FLOW.  THE NOGAPS MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON THE SAME TYPE OF\r\nSTEERING REGIME.  HOWEVER...THE AVN AND MRF MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A TRACK NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nCUBA...AND HAS GRADUALLY BEEN SHIFTING THE TRACK NORTHWARD.  THOSE\r\nMODELS ALSO MADE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF TRACK CHANGE AS COMPARED TO THE\r\nOTHER 23/00Z GLOBAL MODELS.  AS A RESULT...WE HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL WHICH TAKES DEBBY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF\r\nFLORIDA IN 72 HOURS.  ALSO...THE NEW FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS\r\nDIVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND NOW CONVERGE MORE ON A TRACK\r\nTOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA KEYS...EXCLUDING THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS WHICH KEEP DEBBY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREASONING.  LAND INTERACTION SHOULD HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS DEBBY MOVES NORTH OF\r\nTHE WINDWARD PASSAGE...INCREASED SOUTHERLY INFLOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nWEAK INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE FLOW COMES OFF OF CUBA AGAIN.  BY 48\r\nHOURS...DEBBY IS FORECAST TO BE FREE OF ANY ADVERSE LAND EFFECTS AND\r\nALSO BE OVER 29C TO 30C WATER.  ALL THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT A 200 MB LOW WILL CLOSE OFF NEAR THE YUCATAN...WHICH\r\nWOULD SHIFT THE SHEAR VECTOR AROUND FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST...WHICH WOULD BE ALONG AND WITH THE STORM MOTION RATHER\r\nTHAN ACROSS IT.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ALSO INDICATES DECREASING\r\nSHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY COULD BE HIGHER THAN WE ARE\r\nINDICATING IF DEBBY EVER MAINTAINS A GOOD CLOSED EYE/LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 19.9N  70.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 20.3N  72.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 21.2N  75.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 22.3N  76.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N  78.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N  81.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2000\r\n \r\nRECON AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS HAVE SEPARATED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING\r\nTHE DAY. SOME CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE RAGGED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...BUT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nSHEARED WELL TO THE EAST WHERE THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nLOCATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED BASED ON 50 KT RECON\r\nWINDS AT 1000 FT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHICH\r\nSIDE OF EASTERN CUBA WILL DEBBY TAKE ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nEMERGES OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF HAITI LATER TONIGHT.  OUR FEELING\r\nIS THAT INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE MAY\r\nHELP TO NUDGE THE CENTER NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE AND KEEP IT ON THE\r\nNORTH COAST OF CUBA. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER COULD SNEAK THROUGH THE PASSAGE AND EMERGE ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF CUBA.  ASSUMING DEBBY STAYS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGHER\r\nTERRAIN...THE TRACK KEEPS DEBBY JUST INLAND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF\r\nCUBA THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO GFDL...AND THE MEDIUM AND\r\nDEEP BAM MODELS.  THE NEW 12Z UKMET MODEL HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK\r\nFURTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS 00Z TRACK.  UNTIL SOME CONSISTENCY IN\r\nTHE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS OCCURS...WE DO NOT WANT TO SHIFT THE\r\nTRACK TOO FAR TO THE WEST AND TAKE SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS OFF\r\nTHE HOOK. THE REASON IS THAT ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A\r\nSTRONG WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS. NOTE...THE G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL BE MAKING A\r\nSYNOPTIC FLIGHT AROUND DEBBY TONIGHT...AND THAT DROPSONDE DATA\r\nSHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST. IF\r\nDEBBY STAYS OVER LAND AS FORECAST...THEN WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE.\r\nHOWEVER...IF MORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STAYS OVER WATER...\r\nSOME SLOW STRENGTHENING COULD STILL OCCUR BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEN\r\nDUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 20.0N  72.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N  74.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.4N  77.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.6N  79.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N  81.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 26.5N  82.5W    55 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2000\r\n\r\nDEBBY WAS HARD HIT BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE HIGH\r\nMOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.   SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A VERY ILL-\r\nDEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER WITH ONLY A FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1008\r\nMB OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EN ROUTE TO\r\nDETERMINE IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXITS. \r\n\r\nBASED ON EARLIER RECON REPORTS OF 50 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  DEBBY...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD SPREAD OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THEREFORE DEBBY\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  IF THE CENTER\r\nSURVIVES...AND MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE WARM WATERS SOUTH OF\r\nCUBA...AND DECREASES IN FORWARD SPEED...IT COULD REGAIN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS AS THE SHEAR DECREASES.  INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...SO FAR NONE OF\r\nTHE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE A REALISTIC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOR DEBBY. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS BEING STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL WEAKEN THE HIGH\r\nFORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  THIS IS\r\nTHE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 20.0N  74.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N  76.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N  78.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N  80.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N  81.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 26.0N  83.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2000\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS AT BEST A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND A VERY POORLY DEFINED 1011 MB CENTER SOUTH OF EASTERN\r\nCUBA WITH 35-40 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST.  SPORADIC\r\nCONVECTION IS FIRING IN THIS AREA...AND THIS MAY VERY WELL MIX THOSE\r\nWINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DEBBY SLIPPED A LITTLE SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 270/16.  A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nSTORM IS PUSHING IT WESTWARD...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR 24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND\r\nPOSSIBLY ALLOW A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  HOW FAR NORTH\r\nWILL LIKELY DEPEND ON HOW WELL DEVELOPED DEBBY IS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON\r\nTHE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE GFDL...\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...AND AVN ARE ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE NEW FORECAST...\r\nIT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF DEBBY MOVED FURTHER WEST THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE/CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN IS RATHER STRONGER THAN FORECAST LAST NIGHT...AND IS\r\nCREATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER DEBBY.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD\r\nPERSIST FOR 24-36 HR...THUS FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  DEBBY\r\nCOULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THERE IS A CHANCE THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE DEPENDING ON\r\nEXACTLY WHERE DEBBY IS.  A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD GET DEBBY\r\nTANGLED IN THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHERE WESTERLY SHEAR WOULD AT LEAST\r\nSLOW ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT.  A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD HAVE A BETTER\r\nCHANCE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSIFY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 48 AND 72 HR TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 19.6N  75.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.7N  78.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 20.8N  80.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.1N  82.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.5N  84.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  85.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2000\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNING...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND A CLOSED\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTH OF EASTERN CUBA.  DEBBY IS DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA TROUGH OR OPEN WAVE.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS...AND THE GFLD...FSU EXPERIMENTAL...AND\r\nSHIPS...DO FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IN 72 HOURS AND REINTENSIFY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH HEAVY WINDS AND WINDS TO\r\nNEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN CUBA AND\r\nJAMAICA AND THIS WEATHER WILL BE SPREADING WESTWARD TO THE CAYMAN\r\nISLANDS LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nNONE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2000\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT\r\nHAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH\r\nCIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A\r\nFEW DRIFTING BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE AND LIKE MOST TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSIONS...THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. \r\nSOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE INITIAL LOCATION WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES\r\nABOUT 12 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A RIDGE WESTWARD\r\nWHICH WOULD MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER NORTH OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.\r\n\r\nTHE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY...AS USUAL...IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WV\r\nIMAGES AND RAOBS FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER THAN\r\nNORMAL SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THIS PATTERN IS UNFAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THESE WINDS TO\r\nWEAKEN BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED SO FAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE HOSTILE AREA.   HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL\r\nRELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS....AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN MORE THAN\r\nINDICATED AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE BUSTED.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 15.5N  48.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 15.8N  50.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 16.5N  53.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 17.0N  55.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N  57.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 20.0N  61.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT BUOY REPORTS WELL NORTH OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE NORTH...BUT IS\r\nRESTRICTED ELSEWHERE DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON\r\nERNESTO...THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN.  I HAVE KEPT THE CENTER ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nLARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND I AM NOT\r\nREADY TO CONSIDER THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS A CDO AS A RESULT OF\r\nTHE SHEAR PATTERN.  IF THE CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THEN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL BE\r\nOFF.  PUTTING ALL THE AMBIGUITIES ASIDE...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTRACK WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AFTERWARDS AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST WEAKENS AND MOVES WEST...\r\nWHICH ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE\r\nCURRENT SHEAR PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nWEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND SHIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIFOR AND THE GFDL MODEL.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL TAKES ERNESTO UP TO 72 KT IN 72 HOURS INSPITE OF \r\n20 KT OF SHEAR FORECAST.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR VECTOR SHIFTING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN 72 HOURS WHICH WOULD\r\nALLOW FOR MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 16.1N  49.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 16.7N  51.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 17.6N  53.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.4N  56.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 19.0N  58.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  63.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n \r\nEARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOT-WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER JUST\r\nSOUTHWEST OF A CDO TYPE FEATURE.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS RELOCATED\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13.  THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH REMAINS AT THE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE OF\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.  THIS REDUCES THE THREAT TO THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  AN IMPORTANT STEERING MECHANISM IS A COLD UPPER\r\nTROUGHLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS IN THREE DAYS.  THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF\r\nTHE MODELS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS\r\nTROUGH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS...WHICH ARE THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHOWS AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 06Z TO 12Z FROM 20 TO 29\r\nKNOTS AND INCREASING.  THE INENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY\r\nDECREASED BY 5 KNOTS BASED ON THIS SHEAR.  IN FACT...IF THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED AWAY FROM\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...ERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER\r\nIN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS MODEL STILL CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nBASED ON AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 17.4N  51.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.1N  53.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N  56.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N  58.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  61.2W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 22.5N  65.2W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A TENDENCY TOWARD A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS MOTION IS THE RESULT OF\r\nAN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM AND A RIDGE DEVELOPING\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT LEFT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nREMAINING EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SHEAR\r\nIS DOMINATING THE NEARBY ENVIRONMENT AND NO INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST...EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 17.8N  52.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N  54.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.9N  57.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.1N  59.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.2N  61.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N  65.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n\r\nTHE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR SHEARING CHRIS AND DEBBY HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST\r\nTWO OR THREE WEEKS AND IS NOW SHEARING ERNESTO.  THIS HIGHLY\r\nUNFAVORABLE PATTERN IS RATHER UNUSUAL DURING THE PEAK OF THE SEASON.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO\r\nKEEP ERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.  IN ADDITION...A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 2200 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL POINTS WITH TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS TO NORTH OF THE CENTER.  \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON PARTIALLY REMOVING THE UPPER-\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  IF\r\nERNESTO SURVIVES THAT LONG...IT COULD STRENGTHEN.  THIS IS SUGGESTED\r\nBY EVERY SINGLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE MIT EXPERIMENTAL MODEL\r\nWHICH KEEPS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE PRESENCE OF AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT COULD BE A REAL TEST FOR MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS ERNESTO WITH 35 KNOTS BECAUSE THERE ARE\r\nNO SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR IS RELAXING AS HAS BEEN INDICATED BY MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK APPEARS TO BE LESS COMPLICATED.  A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nALMOST GUARANTEES A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 18.4N  53.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.3N  55.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  58.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  60.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  62.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.5N  64.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2000\r\n\r\nERNESTO REMAINS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN...BUT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nDURING THE PAST 5 HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES USING A\r\nSHEAR PATTERN INDICATE THAT ERNESTO IS PROBABLY STILL AT LEAST A\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nRESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15.  THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR PATTERN WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO IMPART A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WHILE THE\r\nMAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  BY 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LET UP AND\r\nMOST OF THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH.  THE\r\nUKMET MODEL IS THE FASTEST AND MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE MODELS IN\r\nTAKING ERNESTO RAPIDLY POLEWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...AND EVEN HINTS AT\r\nRECURVATURE.  HOWEVER...THE UKMET HAS A BIAS TOWARD EARLY\r\nRECURVATURE SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND BETWEEN THE AVN AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS ERNESTO AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH OWING TO THE SHEAR PATTERN.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING THE SHEAR TO DECREASE FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS...WHICH HAS\r\nYET TO OCCUR.  WV IMAGERY INDICATES ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING INTO A\r\nSHARP NARROW TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM\r\nDOWN TO THE DEPRESSION LEVEL.  BUT AS LONG AS SOME DEEP CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS NEAR OR OVER PART OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THEN MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY CAN BE MAINTAINED.  OF INTEREST ARE THE\r\nGFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS WHICH STEADILY INTENSIFY ERNESTO\r\nTO 77 KT AND 962 MB IN 72 HOURS...INSPITE OF THE SHEAR PATTERN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 18.9N  55.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.7N  57.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N  60.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.5N  62.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 24.0N  64.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N  66.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2000\r\n\r\nA LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR EARLY\r\nSEPTEMBER...IS SITUATED ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF ERNESTO. \r\nTHIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  SINCE THE LOW CLOUD CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE EDGE\r\nOF THE DENSE OVERCAST...DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nSTILL GIVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE NEAR 35 KNOTS.  SINCE THE SHEAR HAS\r\nBEEN PERSISTENT...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES.  THERE IS OF COURSE A CAVEAT HERE...NAMELY THAT WE HAVE\r\nVERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES WNW...295/15.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS ERNESTO\r\nMOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nANTICYCLONE.  OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE EXCEPT THAT IT IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE...BAROTROPIC...AND DEEP BAM TRACKS ARE\r\nEVEN FARTHER EAST.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 19.6N  57.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  59.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.8N  61.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  63.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.5N  64.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 28.5N  65.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2000\r\n \r\nPERSISTENT SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON ERNESTO AND THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED TODAY.  LOW CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE THAT A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION NO LONGER EXISTS...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW A STRONG\r\nTROPICAL WAVE.  THE WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT ERNESTO IS\r\nDISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS SHIPS AND THE GFDL HAVE INSISTED ON THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF ERNESTO.  THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY ON\r\nSEVERAL TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR.  APPARENTLY THEY ARE NOT AS\r\nCAPABLE TO PREDICT WEAKENING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT AS THEY ARE TO PREDICT STRENGTHENING IN A FAVORABLE ONE.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERNESTO UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 20.0N  59.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-08 23:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n\r\n781 \r\nWTNT44 KNHC 090012\r\nTCDAT4\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATION DATA INDICATE THE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THE PAST 2 DAYS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nA TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A TRACK IN A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE CENTER\r\nPASSING CLOSE TO CAMERON LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 8 TO 10 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS SO BROAD...LANDFALL\r\nANYWHERE BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA\r\nIS POSSIBLE.  ALMOST ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A 10 TO 12\r\nKT FORWARD MOTION...SO THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND\r\nSOMETIME ON SATURDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nMAKING LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS\r\nSYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE\r\nDIURNAL COVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD LATER TONIGHT.  AS THE DEPRESSION\r\nNEARS THE COAST WHERE A COOL SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY RESIDES...THE\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN UP ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME STRONGER\r\nWINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nALSO...WINDS WILL BE HIGHER ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS\r\nFOR OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS.  SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH WERE REPORTED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN PASSING SQUALLS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0800Z 29.8N  93.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 30.5N  93.5W    30 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 32.6N  93.3W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  SHIPS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE MAY BE TWO LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTERS WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  ONE CENTER\r\nIS NEAR 26.5N 93.5W...WITH THE MAIN CENTER FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION....WHICH WAS USED IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND\r\nBUOY REPORTS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR\r\nREASONING.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TRACK IN A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE CENTER\r\nPASSING CLOSE TO CAMERON LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS. HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS SO BROAD...LANDFALL COULD BE\r\nANYWHERE BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA\r\n...IF A CENTER REMAINS INTACT. \r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...\r\nALTHOUGH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED LATER\r\nTONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS UP.  HOWEVER...ANY TROPICAL STORM WINDS\r\nWOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SQUALLS WELL EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  AS A REMINDER...WINDS WILL BE HIGHER A FEW HUNDRED FEET\r\nABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM\r\nOPERATIONS.  SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WERE\r\nREPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN\r\nBRIEF SQUALLS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 29.0N  93.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 30.5N  93.5W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 32.5N  93.3W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA AND AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NO LONGER HAS A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE AND HAS DISSIPATED.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nNONE \r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAS ACQUIRED\r\nSUFFICIENT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE INITIATED ON T.D. TEN.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED A FEW WIND VECTORS...MOSTLY RAIN-\r\nFLAGGED...OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON\r\nTO SEE IF THE SYSTEM IS TRULY THAT STRONG.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT\r\nIS PROVIDING SOME SHEAR AND LIMITING OUTFLOW.  DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED TO A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT THERE IS SHALLOW\r\nCONVECTION IN BANDS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nWHILE THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN SHORT ORDER...WITH\r\nA LESS THAN OPTIMAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...RAPID STRENGTHING IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/5.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MID-\r\nATLANTIC COAST IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW BUT THIS RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE\r\nNEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE UKMET KEEPS THIS RIDGE IN PLACE LONGER\r\nTHAN THE AVN AND TAKES THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT MOST\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RECURVATURE TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 30.4N  72.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 30.2N  73.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 30.1N  73.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  74.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 30.5N  73.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-11 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE...BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WINDS OF\r\n64 KT AT 1000 FT IN CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT HAS ALSO REPORTED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB...BUT\r\nTHEY HAVE NOT YET BEEN IN THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BUT THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1800Z 30.3N  72.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 30.2N  73.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 30.1N  73.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N  74.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  74.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 30.5N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n \r\nWE ARE REMINDED ONCE AGAIN THAT THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR AIRCRAFT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS.  WHILE THE DVORAK SATELLITE TECHNIQUE\r\nESTIMATED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...THE RECON FOUND A LARGE AREA OF\r\nWINDS AT THE 1000 FT LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...AND EVEN A SMALL\r\nAREA OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 KT ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. \r\nTHIS SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF 60 TO 65 KT.  I WOULD LIKE TO SEE\r\nTHESE WINDS PERSIST A BIT BEFORE MAKING FLORENCE A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nA BALL OF CONVECTION HAS ROTATED HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER\r\nOVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...AND IN RECENT IMAGES THIS CONVECTION HAS\r\nPULLED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND WITH IT.  THE LAST RECON FIX WAS\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND WE EXPECT AN ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  THE LARGER CIRCULATION IS MOVING AT 240/5.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS WILDLY DIVERGENT...WHICH IS COMMON WITH WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENTS.  HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FLORENCE\r\nWILL ULTIMATELY TURN EASTWARD WITHOUT GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE U.S\r\nEAST COAST.  FLORENCE IS STILL TIED UP WITH AN UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW\r\nTHAT IS SHEARING THE SYSTEM...AND WHILE FLORENCE COULD EASILY REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...NOT MUCH MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 30.0N  72.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 29.7N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 29.6N  74.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.6N  74.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 30.0N  75.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 31.0N  74.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n \r\nFLORENCE HAS BEEN MAKING A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP THE PAST 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS AND THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE THE PAST\r\n5 HOURS.  EARLIER RECON REPORTS INDICATED FLORENCE WAS NEAR\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD \r\nAT 60 KT DUE TO THE SHARP DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. \r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE EAST...BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY OR A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST.  WITH THE RECENT DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...FLORENCE MAY BE STEERED BACK TO THE WEST BY THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL MODELS AGREE ON FLORENCE REMAINING IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW\r\nREGIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN GRADUALLY BEGIN TO\r\nMOVE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST BY 72 HOURS AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THAT FLORENCE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION...RAPID AND\r\nSIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN OCCUR DUE TO VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.  SOME OF THE STRONG WINDS REPORTED BY\r\nRECON AIRCRAFT EARLIER COULD HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS\r\nCREATED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A GOOD DRY PUNCH HAS WRAPPED ALL\r\nTHE WAY AROUND INTO THE CENTER...WHICH HAS LIKELY HELP TO ERODE THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION.  SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY\r\nAIR AROUND THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE SYSTEM...ONLY SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST UNTIL A PERSISTENT STEADY TREND IN THE\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 30.2N  72.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 30.1N  73.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 30.1N  73.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.6N  74.2W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N  73.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 31.5N  71.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS AN ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH DIMINISHED THE DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER RECENT\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS INFLUENCE MAY BE ABATING...\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...ALONG WITH AN EYE-LIKE\r\nWARM SPOT.  EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEMS LACKS THE CLASSIC ANTICYCLONIC\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BECOME\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK AND IT IS SITUATED OVER 28 DEG C SST.  THEREFORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS LIKELY...IF FLORENCE IS NOT ONE\r\nALREADY.  AIR FORCE RECON IS SCHEDULED FOR 12Z AND THIS WILL GIVE A\r\nBETTER GAUGE OF INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVERNIGHT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nESSENTIALLY WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONES TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN\r\nWEAK FOR A WHILE AND TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN\r\nAMPLIFYING 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST...CREATING AN\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR FLORENCE.\r\nTHUS...WE EXPECT ERRATIC MOTION...OR A VERY SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nDISPLACEMENT...DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL AND U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 30.2N  72.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 30.3N  73.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 30.4N  74.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 30.5N  73.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  73.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  70.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE REPORTS THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN FLORENCE.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND...AT 850\r\nMB...WAS 69 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT VERY COLD AND MOSTLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS BETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. \r\nWHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT PROVIDING MUCH OUTFLOW...IT\r\nWOULD NOT TAKE MUCH TO MAKE FLORENCE A HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLORENCE WILL NOT MAKE ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nSTATIONARY...AS FLORENCE SITS BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...AND LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST.  A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND\r\nUKMET MODELS TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...AND A SECOND...STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SCOOP UP\r\nFLORENCE AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nMOTION FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOW ACCELERATION TO THE EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 30.4N  73.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 30.5N  73.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.5N  73.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.7N  72.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  70.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 4 MB\r\nDROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER A THREE HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS\r\nMORNING...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELLIPTICAL EYEWALL ABOUT\r\n25 NM IN DIAMETER.  WHILE THERE WERE NO FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER\r\nTHAN 65 KT...THE CREW ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS IN THE 65 TO 70 KT\r\nRANGE OVER A SUBSTANTIAL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  GIVEN THE\r\nIMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE...THE PRESSURE FALLS...AND\r\nTHE SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE...FLORENCE IS BEING UPGRADED TO A\r\nHURRICANE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/3.  FLORENCE REMAINS CAUGHT IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ANOTHER\r\nDAY OR TWO.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLORENCE\r\nWILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS.  A MID-LATITUDE\r\nSHORT WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS TO ERODE THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND A\r\nSECOND...STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SCOOP UP FLORENCE AFTER 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...THE UKMET...AND NOGAPS\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 30.8N  73.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 31.1N  73.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.4N  73.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 31.5N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 31.7N  72.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 32.5N  69.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -70C IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. \r\nOUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED...WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nCONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY...65 KT...BASED ON THE BETTER\r\nDEFINED EYE AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/4.  FLORENCE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT \r\nFLORENCE WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND 13/00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MID-\r\nLEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nWEAK...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PICK UP THE HURRICANE AND\r\nMOVE IT TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK... ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO GFDL AND UKMET\r\nSOULTIONS...ONLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE FORECAST TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nNOW THAT FLORENCE HAS AN ESTABLISHED EYE FEATURE...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME\r\nDIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 31.0N  73.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 31.3N  73.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 31.8N  71.7W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.0N  70.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 33.5N  67.5W    75 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN 1 MB FROM THE LAST MISSION...BUT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL AND DROPSONDE-MEASURED WINDS BARELY SUPPORT HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM. \r\nFLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...AND...ASSUMING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE\r\nAPPRECIABLY...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES SHOW A VERY SLOW DRIFT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A BREAKDOWN OF THE WEAK MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS.  THE STEERING CURRENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL\r\nA STRONG 500 MB TROUGH DROPS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE AN INCREASING WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE AVN\r\nAND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL TRACKS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 30.8N  74.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  74.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  73.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 31.2N  72.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  70.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 34.0N  67.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n \r\nANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF FLORENCE\r\nSHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THIS ADVISORY.  THE AREAL COVERAGE OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING...BUT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER IS IMPROVING AND SOME NEW CONVECTION IS\r\nGOING OFF NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY OR INTENSITY FORECAST PENDING NEW INFORMATION FROM THE\r\nRECON AIRCRAFT.  \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FLORENCE HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS MORNING. \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS ERODING AND\r\nFLORENCE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD.  BY 48 HOURS A MAJOR\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ACCELERATE\r\nFLORENCE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THERE COULD BE A SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT\r\nFOR A TIME...WHICH WOULD SLOW THE ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE UKMET. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 30.9N  73.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N  73.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 31.3N  71.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 32.5N  69.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 37.0N  66.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLY\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE ABOUT 50 KT AND THE PRESSURE\r\nWAS UP TO 989 MB.  THE AIR CREW ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS TO STILL BE\r\n55 TO 60 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO THE LATTER VALUE. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.  FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED DESPITE AN\r\nIMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND ITS LACK OF MOVEMENT HAS\r\nNO DOUBT LOCALLY LOWERED THE SSTS.  FLORENCE WILL HAVE AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM ITS\r\nPRESENT LOCATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL STATIONARY.  THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INCREASES THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO\r\nBERMUDA.  VIRTUALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO\r\nTHE EAST...AND THE LASTEST GFDL TRACK HAS FLORENCE PASSING VERY\r\nCLOSE TO BERMUDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 30.5N  73.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 30.5N  71.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 31.2N  69.1W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 33.0N  66.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 39.0N  63.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW CLUSTERS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60\r\nKNOTS.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY\r\nMORNING TO DETERMINE THE INTENSITY.  FLORENCE WILL HAVE AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE STATUS ONCE IT BEGINS TO\r\nMOVE AWAY FROM ITS PRESENT LOCATION TOWARD WARMER WATERS.\r\n\r\nFLORENCE IS DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 3 KNOTS AND LITTLE MOTION\r\nIS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL\r\nKICK FLORENCE OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  ON THIS TRACK...FLORENCE WILL MOVE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO\r\nBERMUDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA EARLY THURSDAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 30.2N  73.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  72.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 30.2N  70.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 31.5N  67.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 34.0N  65.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 41.5N  61.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FLORENCE HAS\r\nBECOME SOMEWHAT DISTORTED.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT\r\nTHAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED.  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP TO 993 MB AND\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS...WHICH IS PROBABLY\r\nGENEROUS.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED AND NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS STILL\r\nAN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER\r\nNORTHERN MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND\r\nCREATE AN INCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER\r\nTHE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL\r\nMODEL RUN.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PROJECTED TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...AND GIVEN THE\r\nUSUAL UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECASTS...A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE\r\nWATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 29.5N  73.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 29.4N  73.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 30.0N  70.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 31.5N  67.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 34.0N  65.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 43.0N  61.0W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000\r\n \r\nFLORENCE CONTINUES TO SUFFER UNDER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COURTESY OF\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OFF U.S. EAST COAST.\r\nCONVECTION IS DEEP BUT LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THERE\r\nIS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-STRENGTHENING IF THE FLOW BECOMES\r\nLESS SHEARED.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A\r\nVIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CREATE AN\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD\r\nEVENTUALLY ACCELERATE FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  ALL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO BERMUDA THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 29.5N  73.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 29.7N  72.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 30.3N  70.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 32.4N  66.6W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 36.0N  64.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 45.0N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH\r\nCONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EAST SIDE.  AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FOUND\r\nTHAT THE PRESSURE REMAINS AT 995 MB AND REPORTS PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 50 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THERE REMAINS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED STRENGTHENING\r\nONCE FLORENCE BEGINS TO MOVE...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT IMPROVE APPRECIABLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 140/3.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPIC\r\nREASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST.  A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CREATE AN INCREASING WESTERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH\r\nWILL ACCELERATE FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nCLOSE TO BERMUDA AND THEN TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE RIGHT\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ANCHORED BY THE GFDL...REMAINS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 29.2N  73.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 30.0N  68.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 33.0N  65.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  62.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 47.0N  57.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000\r\n\r\nTHIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\nFLORENCE IS SHEARED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nREACHES THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY.  THERE COULD BE SOME LIMITED\r\nSTRENGTHENING ONCE FLORENCE BEGINS TO MOVE.\r\n \r\nFLORENCE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY BUT AN APPROACHING VIGOROUS\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD KICK FLORENCE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD CLOSE TO BERMUDA AND THEN TOWARD THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  ON THIS TRACK FLORENCE MAY MOVE VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 29.2N  73.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 29.0N  72.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 30.0N  69.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 32.0N  66.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  63.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 47.0N  55.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nDRIFT...120/02...BUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN APPROACHING SHORT\r\nWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY ACCELERATING FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE\r\nFASTER...MOVING FLORENCE NEAR BERMUDA IN 24 HOURS.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK ACCELERATES THE MOTION TO 30 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS.  TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nSSM/I DATA INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IS EXPECTED IN A CONDITION OF\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY REINTESIFICATION\r\nUNTIL THE FORWARD MOTION ACCERATES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND PERHAPS\r\nREDUCES THE VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 29.0N  72.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 30.0N  70.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 32.3N  66.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  62.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 41.0N  58.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 50.0N  51.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  CONSEQUENTLY IT IS EXPECETD\r\nTO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 13 KNOTS AND ACCELERATING.\r\nFLORENCE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH AND PASS VERY NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BETWEEN 12\r\nAND 24 HOURS.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRECENT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE\r\nTHE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS PEAKED AT 58 KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY SO INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE\r\nLIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 29.8N  70.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 31.2N  68.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 33.3N  65.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  62.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 39.5N  59.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 50.0N  51.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH\r\nALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  CONSEQUENTLY IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  FLORENCE SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR\r\nOR JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WIND FIELD OR\r\nPRESSURE FROM LATEST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE FLORENCE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 30.2N  69.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 30.9N  67.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 33.5N  64.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 36.5N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 42.0N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 53.5N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n\r\nFLORENCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BASED ON A\r\nEARLIER RECON REPORT AND AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/21.  FLORENCE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nMAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICAL TRACK IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE RPEVIOUS FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nMODELS.  FLORENCE SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO OR JUST NORTH OF BERMUDA\r\nDURING THE ENXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS HELD STEADY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE AFTERWARDS AS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO\r\nAFFECT THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FLORENCE COULD\r\nINTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 31.4N  66.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 33.3N  63.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 36.4N  58.9W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 40.2N  55.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 44.4N  51.7W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 53.9N  46.7W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/20.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nACCELERATES FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A MAJOR TROUGH IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND INTO THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT FIX DATA.  THE\r\nCENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 50 DEGRESS NORTH LATITUDE IN 48 HOURS\r\nAND SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THEN.\r\n\r\nAN AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 988 MB AND THEN 992 MB A FEW\r\nHOURS LATER.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AT 850 MB WAS 60 KNOTS BUT THEY\r\nMAY HAVE MISSED THE HIGHEST WINDS.  THE WIND SPEED IS LEFT AT 65\r\nKNOT BUT MAY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL COLDER WATER IS ENCOUNTERED IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS AT ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA AND\r\nCONDITIONS THERE SHOULD NOW BEGIN TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 33.2N  65.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 35.5N  62.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 43.5N  53.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 50.0N  49.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 58.0N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n\r\nFLORENCE IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND\r\nIS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AS ANTICIPATED. SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FLORENCE REMAINS AS HURRICANE WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND BANDING FEATURES. FLORENCE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS OVER COOL\r\nWATERS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 34.8N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 37.2N  60.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 41.5N  55.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 46.5N  51.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 52.4N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n\r\nAN EYE WAS APPARENT ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES...AND BASED ON THIS\r\nIMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...TO\r\n70 KNOTS.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT FLORENCE HAS PEAKED SINCE IT WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER...THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND BY 48 HOURS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEMS OVER HIGHER LATITUDES.\r\n\r\nFLORENCE IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION TODAY AND\r\nMOTION IS NOW NE AROUND 31 KNOTS.  BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED LEFTWARD AND SHOWS THE CENTER\r\nPASSING NEAR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 37.4N  60.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 40.7N  56.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 46.0N  52.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 52.0N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nLATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUGGEST THAT FLORENCE HAS DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS\r\nNOW A TROPICAL STORM. FLORENCE IS NOW MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  IN\r\n36 HOURS...OR SOONER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...AND BY 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HIGHER LATITUDES.\r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION OVER THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS AND THE MOTION IS NOW 045/27 KNOTS.  BASED ON THE\r\nLATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE FSU ENSEMBLE FORECAST...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND SHOWS THE CENTER PASSING NEAR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 38.9N  58.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 41.9N  54.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 48.5N  51.3W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 58.0N  50.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nFLORENCE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE AT 55\r\nKNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. \r\nEVENTUALLY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HIGHER LATITUDES.\r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  ACCELERATION CONTINUES AND FLORENCE HAS TAKEN A\r\nSLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...INITIAL MOTION IS NOW  030/31 KNOTS. \r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND\r\nTHEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS THE CENTER PASSING NEAR EASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN ABOUT 18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 41.3N  56.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 45.3N  53.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 52.1N  51.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nFLORENCE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT\r\nPASSED VERY CLOSE TO BUOY 44141 BETWEEN 10 AND 11Z THIS MORNING. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT BUT THE QUIKSCAT SUGGESTS A\r\nLITTLE LESS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.  SHIP\r\nREPORTS AND QUIKSCAT INDICATE THAT THE SIZE OF THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS IS LESS THAN WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING AND THE RADII ARE\r\nREDUCED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n\r\nFLORENCE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/33.  A SLIGHT TURN\r\nTO THE LEFT AROUND THIS LOW IS EXPECTED...BRINGING THE CENTER VERY\r\nCLOSE TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. \r\nFLORENCE WILL EITHER BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF THE LARGER LOW WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 44.2N  54.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 49.1N  51.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 57.0N  52.4W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nSURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS BEING\r\nABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER CANADA.  THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ON FLORENCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 47.2N  52.3W    50 KTS...BECOMING ABSORBED\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z ...ABSORBED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO FIND A\r\nSMALL SURFACE CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA... AND ADVISORIES ARE INTIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nELEVEN.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE SPENDING THE\r\nNEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTH-\r\nCENTRAL GULF TOMORROW.  THE GFDL SOLUTION...WHICH TAKES A HURRICANE\r\nINTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITHIN 48 HOURS...SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL BE UNABLE\r\nTO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MUCH SLOWER\r\nAND NEAR THE MEDIUM LAYER BAM.\r\n\r\nIF THE CENTER SURVIVES THE TRIP OVER THE YUCATAN...AND IT IS SMALL\r\nENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT SURVIVE...INTENSIFICATION TO A STORM IS\r\nLIKELY OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 20.0N  87.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.9N  88.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 21.5N  90.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  90.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.7N  90.6W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N  91.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. \r\nASSUMING THAT THEY MOVE TOGETHER...THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WILL SPEND\r\nLITTLE TIME OVER LAND...AND THERE IS THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT A\r\nNEW CENTER COULD FORM TO THE RIGHT OF ONE WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING. \r\n\r\nAS EXPECTED...THE NEW GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS A SHORT-FUSE THREAT TO\r\nCENTRAL FLORIDA.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW MOTION INTO THE\r\nGULF...BUT WITH VERY DIFFERENT RESPONSES TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nDIGGING DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED\r\nBY THE UKMET...WHICH TAKES THE DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE...AND THE GFDL AND LBAR...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THAT THE TROUGH WILL\r\nNOT HAVE A LASTING IMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...SHOULD\r\nA NEW CENTER FORM SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT ONE THEN\r\nTHE GFDL AND LBAR TRACKS BECOME MORE LIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A DIFFICULT BALANCE BETWEEN THE\r\nWARM WATERS IN THE GULF...THE POSSIBILITY OF A FAVORABLE TROUGH\r\nINTERACTION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF...AND SOME VERY STRONG SHEAR IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF.  THE SLOW MOTION CURRENTLY INDICATED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WOULD ALLOW DEVELOPMENT AND THEREFORE WE\r\nFORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 20.3N  87.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 20.6N  88.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 21.2N  89.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.9N  90.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  91.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N  92.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2000\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA AND THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF STRENGTHENING AT THIS\r\nTIME.  \r\n\r\nNUMEROUS DROPSONDES LAUNCHED FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET ACROSS\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN AND NEAR THE DEPRESSION REVEAL THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nA WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS NOT VERTICALLY\r\nALIGNED WITH THE SURFACE CENTER.  UNTIL THAT HAPPENS...AND I AM NOT\r\nSURE IF IT EVER WILL...SINCE THIS HAS BEEN HAPPENING WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR...NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. \r\nALSO...THE DEPRESSION HAS TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND BEFORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SHARP\r\nUPPER-TROUGH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND IT IS BEGINNING TO DISRUPT\r\nTHE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT WHICH THE SYSTEM HAD\r\n24 HOURS AGO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nTHEREAFTER AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS OR COULD STAY AS A SHEARED DEPRESSION. \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BY EVALUATING THE MODELS.\r\nPREVIOUS GFDL TOOK THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO NORTHWEST FLORIDA AS A\r\nHURRICANE WHILE THE NEW RUN KEEPS A WEAKER SYSTEM IN THE SOUTH\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE AVN AND THE NOGAPS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE UK MOVES IT SOUTHWARD TO THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT ABOUT\r\nTO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WILL KEEP A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK TROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE DEPRESSION ON\r\nFRIDAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 20.9N  88.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 21.1N  88.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  89.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 22.3N  90.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N  91.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 24.5N  92.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION ON INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY.  THE IMAGERY DOES SUGGEST A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR THE\r\nNORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITION.  THIS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH WEAK\r\nSYSTEMS AT NIGHT.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT.  THE\r\nGFDL AND UKMET MODELS DRIFT THE DEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY OVER THE\r\nSOUTH CENTRAL GULF FOR THREE DAYS.  THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR SHOW A\r\nMOTION TO THE NORTHEAST GULF AND THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLOW NORTHWESTWARD SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AS A KIND OF CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nSTRONG WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST NORTH OF 25N.  SO THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nHAVE TO MOVE SLOWLY AND STAY SOUTH OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR IN ORDER TO\r\nSURVIVE AND STRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 69\r\nKNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS FOLLOWING\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS BELIEVED TO HAVE A\r\nPOSITIVE BIAS FOR DEPRESSION STAGE AS THE SHIPS DEVELOPMENTAL DATA\r\nSET DID NOT CONTAIN DEPRESSIONS THAT DID NOT BECOME TROPICAL STORMS. \r\nSO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nAN AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA A LITTLE LATER THIS\r\nMORNING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 21.5N  88.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 21.9N  88.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 22.4N  89.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 22.9N  89.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N  90.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 24.5N  92.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SURFACE AND UPPER AIR\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS STILL OVER LAND BUT READY TO MOVE\r\nOFFSHORE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF MERIDA.  THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nBETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY AND THE PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 MB BUT\r\nSTILL NOT ALIGNED WITH THE VIGOROUS MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF YUCATAN. CANCUN RAOB\r\nREPORTED 30-KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT LOW-LEVELS THIS\r\nMORNING.\r\n\r\nAS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS\r\nINCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM SO ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...SHEAR MAY RELAX AND\r\nIN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER AN\r\nAREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHIS THOUGHT IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE GFDL CHANGED ITS\r\nTUNE AGAIN SUGGESTING A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE SHOWING\r\nA SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.  HOWEVER...THIS TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IF THE\r\nCENTER REFORMS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 21.6N  88.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  89.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N  90.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  90.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.5N  91.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 26.5N  91.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS ON THE\r\nVERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.   HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CENTER WITH A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nTO THE EAST...THE SURFACE CENTER IS STILL DETACHED FROM THE MID-\r\nLEVEL CENTER.  EXCELLENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALONG\r\nTHE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IT IS\r\nEXPECTED THAT EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED\r\nAND STRENGTHENING WILL BEGIN. \r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRACK BUT IT IS HARD TO\r\nIGNORE THE GFDL WHICH CONSISTENTLY...FOR THE PAST TWO RUNS...HAS\r\nTURNED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.  BASED ON THE GFDL OUTPUT AND THE READJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nEXPECTED SURFACE CENTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT A LITTLE BIT.  \r\n\r\nDUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...AND WEEKEND ACTIVITIES\r\nCOMING...IT IS URGED THAT ALL INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO\r\nANY PORTION OF THE COAST FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 21.7N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 22.3N  88.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 23.0N  88.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 23.8N  88.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N  88.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 27.5N  89.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n\r\nTHIS HAS BEEN A BUSY EVENING TO SAY THE LEAST.  AIR FORCE RECON\r\nFOUND 59 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB JUST EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nWHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE.  SATELLITE INDICATE\r\nTHAT CENTER HAS MOVED/DEVELOPED FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL NEAR THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED BUT\r\nIMPROVING TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS BEEN MAKING A STEADY NORTHEAST MOTION OF 8 TO 10 KT\r\nDURING THE PAST 9 HOURS.  16/00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS INDICATE 30\r\nMETER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AT MIAMI AND 20 METER FALLS FARTHER NORTH\r\nUP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  THE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE HEIGHT FALLS HAS SUPPRESSED THE RIDGE\r\nSOUTHWARD TO CUBA WHICH HAS ALLOWED GORDON TO FINALLY MAKE A MOVE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES EAST OF FLORIDA...I\r\nEXPECT THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO GRADUALLY BUILD BACK TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST WHICH SHOULD NUDGE GORDON BACK TO A MORE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nOR EVEN NORTHERLY TRACK.  THE NEXT TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHCENTRAL U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW ON THE SYSTEM.  THE KEY WILL BE HOW FAR NORTH GORDON TRACKS\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN\r\nACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO\r\nCAMPS...WITH HALF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE VARIOUS GFDL\r\nMODELS...TAKING GORDON TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OTHER HALF TAKE GORDON\r\nBASICALLY NORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH TAKES GORDON\r\nSOUTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AS A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nSINCE IT APPEARS THAT GORDON HAS NOW BECOME A VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nSYSTEM...WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFDL MODELS...ONLY SLOWER AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THOSE TRACKS.  THIS FORECAST IS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nTRACK SHIFT TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...RECON ALSO FOUND A SECOND CENTER\r\nFURTHER EAST FROM THE OFFICIAL POSITION...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE\r\nSTORM BEING FURTHER EAST THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE SHEAR HAS LET UP ON GORDON...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.  THE 48 AND 72 HOUR\r\nINTENSITIES REFLECT OVER LAND CONDITIONS...WHICH ARE SUBJECT TO\r\nERRORS SHOULD GORDON SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 22.6N  87.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 23.9N  86.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 25.8N  85.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 27.8N  83.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 30.0N  82.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  78.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nRECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC\r\nOVERNIGHT.  THE RATHER UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.  THE 00Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOWS GORDON NOT BEING PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH MOVING\r\nACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  GORDON IS FORECAST TO TRAVEL TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH OR NORTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR SO AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AT 500 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE 00Z GFDL HAS SHIFTED LEFT OF THE 18Z GFDL MODEL.  ALSO THE UKMET\r\nHAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK 180 DEGREES AND IS NOW ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nGFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 10 DEGREES OF\r\nHEADING TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS SMALL SHIFT\r\nRESULTS IN A LANDFALL ABOUT 100 MILES FURTHER NORTHWEST ALONG THE\r\nUPPER FLORIDA WEST COAST.  THE FOWARD MOTION IS ALSO SLOWED SOME\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THIS RESULTS IN DELAYING LANDFALL TO\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS.  SO THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE HURRICANE WATCH AT\r\nTHIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST\r\nIN SIX HOURS OR SO.  \r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  THE RECENT RECONNAISANCE FLIGHT\r\nREPORTED 997 MB...DOWN 11 MB IN 18 HOURS...AND THE MAXIMUM WIND\r\nSPEED REPORTED WAS 59 KNOTS AT 850 MB EAST OF THE CENTER.  ALL OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING TO A CAT 1 HURRICANE...MAINLY\r\nDUE TO THE WARM GULF WATERS.\r\n\r\nIT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION.  ALL\r\nINTERESTS FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 23.4N  86.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 24.5N  86.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N  85.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 27.5N  85.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 30.0N  84.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 34.0N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nRECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS MOVING ABOUT 035/08\r\nKNOTS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD A\r\nDEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST THEREFORE...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nBIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND THE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nAND CLOSE TO THE UKMET. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED\r\nACCORDINGLY.  IN ADDITION...DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 100 N MI\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS\r\nNECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND THE RECON REPORTED A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KNOTS.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.\r\nHOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nIT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION.  ALL\r\nINTERESTS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 23.9N  86.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N  85.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 27.0N  84.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 28.8N  83.7W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 31.0N  82.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 36.0N  79.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 983 MB AND THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING\r\nHURRICANE FORCE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DISRUPT THE CLOUD PATTERN.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT WOULD STILL ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nPREVIOUS AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATED THAT GORDON SLOWED DOWN WHILE\r\nREORGANIZING BUT...LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 TO 9 KNOTS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD A DEVELOPING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC.\r\nTHEREFORE...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK ON THE\r\nGENERAL DIRECTION OF NORTH FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO BE TO A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL WHICH IN FACT BRINGS\r\nTHE CENTER JUST WEST OF APALACHICOLA.  \r\n \r\nIT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION.  ALL\r\nINTERESTS FROM ALABAMA TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 24.8N  85.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.7N  85.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 27.8N  84.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 30.0N  83.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 32.0N  82.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 37.5N  78.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 985 MB AND THAT\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOW ENCIRCLE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THAT\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nRESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH\r\nA TIGHT CLUSTERING IN THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\n...AND ESPECIALLY THE 18Z AVN MODEL...HAVE NOW SWUNG AROUND FARTHER\r\nEAST IN LINE WITH THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACKS.  ONLY THE AVN MODEL IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND IT TAKES\r\nGORDON NEAR APALACHICOLA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE 18Z GFDL MODEL WAS\r\nSLOW AND FARTHER WEST THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION.  WITH THE STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD...THE\r\nNARROW RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MAY BULGE NORTHWARD A LITTLE\r\nFURTHER WHICH SHOUDL KEEP GORDON ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK. \r\nHOWEVER.. AFTER ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nFLORIDA COAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN CEDAR KEY AND ST. MARKS. \r\nTHE OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET MODEL AND A LITTLE\r\nEAST AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nGORDON MAY INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IF THE SHEAR LETS UP ENOUGH TO\r\nALLOW THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS TO BECOME VERTICALLY\r\nALIGNED AND A CLOSED EYEWALL TO FORM.  DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY\r\nWEST INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DISPLACED ABOUT\r\n15 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE RECON SURFACE POSITIONS. UNTIL THE\r\nSHEAR LETS UP...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR.  FARTHER NORTH\r\nOVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO BE STRONGER FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST WHICH WOULD ACT TO\r\nPRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF 29N LATITUDE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 25.7N  85.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 27.0N  84.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 29.0N  83.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 31.2N  81.8W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 33.5N  80.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 38.5N  75.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nTHE SCENARIO OF GORDON LOCATED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING A LANDFALL IN A LITTLE\r\nMORE THAN 18 HOURS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION IS ACCELERATED TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AS THE TRACK\r\nMOVES INLAND BUT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED 981 MB AT 80 KNOTS AT 850 MB JUST\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE TAMPA RADAR TEMPORARILY SHOWED A FAIRLY\r\nWELL DEFINED CENTER OR EYE ABOUT 30 N MI WIDE BUT THIS FEATURE HAS\r\nDETERIORATED.  FOLLOWING THE LIMITED GUIDANCE...THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE TO 75 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE GULF COAST WARNINGS.  THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH ALONG THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST IS CHANGED TO A WARNING AND THE\r\nWATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA.  THIS IS BASED ON THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURING\r\nALONG THIS AREA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 26.9N  84.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 28.6N  83.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 31.0N  82.4W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.5N  80.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  78.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 40.5N  73.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GORDON HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN DESPITE THE STRONG\r\nSHEARING CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.   HOWEVER...WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW EXPOSED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...SOME WEAKENING MAY BE OCCURRING AS INDICATED BY RECENT\r\nRECON REPORTS SHOWING THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING.  HOWEVER...RECON\r\nALSO FOUND 73 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB RIGHT ALONG THE\r\nIMMEDIATE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 64 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS...AND THIS IS REASON FOR KEEPING GORDON AT MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/14.  THERE MAY SOME WOBBLING\r\nABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nBEING EXPOSED.  HOWEVER...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW CONVERGING\r\nWITHIN 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA IN 8\r\nTO 12 HOURS.  THE FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED DUE TO THE STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM NOW. \r\nAFTER MOVING OVER NORTH FLORIDA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nFURTHER EAST TOWARD THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST.  THE GFDL AND AVN\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN STEADILY SHIFTING TO THE EAST THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE UKMET HAS REMAINED CLOSE TO ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACKS.  WITH SUCH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE\r\nWEST OF GORDON...AND THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME MORE WESTERLY...I FEEL THE HURRICANE SHOULD TRACK A LITTLE\r\nCLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND POSSIBLY EVEN MERGE WITH THE\r\nCOLD FRONT LYING OFF THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE UKMET\r\nMODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS AND TO THE LEFT OF THE UKMET AND SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER AFTERWARDS.\r\n\r\nAFTER PEAKING AT 981 MB EARLIER THIS MORNING...GORDON APPEARS TO BE\r\nON A STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME\r\nUNCERTAINTY ON HOW ANY BAROCLINIC EFFECTS MAY BE AFFECTING GORDON.\r\nITS DOUBTFUL THAT GORDON WILL INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...BUT\r\nIT ALSO MAY NOT WEAKEN VERY MUCH.  BY 24 HOURS...GORDON MAY MERGE\r\nWITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. I HAVE\r\nKEPT THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL IN CASE STRONG UPPER-\r\nAIR DYNAMICS KICK IN AND MAKE GORDON A HYBRID SYSTEM OFF THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S.\r\n \r\nNO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE GULF COAST WARNINGS.  THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD\r\nTO LITTLE RIVER INLET SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A TROPICAL WATCH EXTENDS\r\nNORTHWARD FROM LITTLE RIVER TO CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.\r\n\r\nNOTE...TORNADOES WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA AND FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 27.8N  83.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 29.6N  82.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 32.3N  80.3W    50 KTS...\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 35.0N  77.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W    50 KTS...\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    50 KTS...\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-09-17 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nSOUTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTH TO\r\nTITUSVILLE.\r\n\r\nTRACK AND INTENSITY REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1800Z 28.1N  83.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 29.6N  82.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 32.3N  80.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 35.0N  77.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 37.5N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS CONTINUED TO EXPERIENCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND RECON COULD ONLY FIND 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\nTHEREFORE...GORDON IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...\r\nRECON HAS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED BY\r\n5 MB SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...DESPITE THE SHEAR...AND THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE IS 985 MB.  SOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS ALSO\r\nDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE BROAD CENTER OR EYE\r\nFEATURE DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/12...OR EVEN 020/12 IF ONE GOES\r\nFROM RECON FIX TO RECON FIX.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS A\r\nLITTLE EAST OF THE RECON POSITION AND ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC\r\nCENTER OF THE CLOUD-FREE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  DUE TO THE NEW CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...THERE MAY BE SOME LARGE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK UNTIL GORDON\r\nMAKES LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA LATER THIS EVENING.  GORDON\r\nMAY MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ALONG THE GEROGIA-\r\nFLORIDA BORDER AND TRACK CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE AS A\r\nHYBRID SYSTEM UNTIL PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER\r\nBANKS WHERE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEFT OF THE NEW 17/12Z UKMET MODEL RUN WHICH\r\nKEEPS GORDON MOSTLY OVER OPEN OCEAN AFTER 18 HOURS.\r\n\r\nGORDON MAY MAKE ONE LAST GASP AT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MAKING\r\nLANDFALL BASED ON THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS.  HOWEVER...WITH SUCH\r\nCLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND...ITS UNLIKELY THAT GORDON WILL REGAIN\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO WHETHER OR NOT GORDON TRACKS\r\nOVER WATER OR STAYS OVER LAND...AND ALSO WHETHER THE SYSTEM BECOMES\r\nMORE BAROCLINIC.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 28.6N  83.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 30.1N  82.3W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 32.8N  80.0W    45 KTS...\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 35.5N  76.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 38.5N  72.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 44.1N  61.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nGORDON HAS REACHED THE COAST JUST NORTH OF CEDAR KEY...A PRESSURE OF\r\n994.5 MB WAS RECENTLY REPORTED FROM THAT STATION.\r\n \r\nPRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS\r\nVANISHED...AND GORDON'S SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS HARDLY THAT OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  YET...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT A FAIRLY SMALL\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A DISTINCT WARM CORE.  EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SHOW HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...850\r\nMB...THE LACK OF STRONG CONVECTION IMPLIES THAT THESE WINDS WILL NOT\r\nBE WELL MIXED TO THE SURFACE.  IN FACT OBSERVATIONS FROM CEDAR KEY\r\nSHOWED SUSTAINED...10 MINUTE MEAN...WINDS OF 46 KNOTS WITH A PEAK\r\nGUST TO 59 KNOTS...PRETTY MUCH UNDERNEATH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KNOTS.  WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS GORDON MOVES OVER LAND.  LATER ON...THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nSTORM WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST THE CENTER MOVES.  SOME GUIDANCE MODELS...SUCH AS THE LATEST\r\nGFDL RUN...INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL INLAND.  IN ANY\r\nEVENT...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.\r\n \r\nRECON FIXES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...BUT THIS IS\r\nLIKELY TEMPORARY.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/10.  GORDON IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO HIGHER LATITUDE  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...ALBEIT\r\nSLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 29.3N  83.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 30.9N  82.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  79.6W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 36.0N  76.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 39.0N  71.5W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 44.5N  61.5W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2000\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER\r\nLAND.  THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN REPORTED 32 KNOTS AT 07Z AND DOPPLER\r\nWINDS ALOFT FROM THE JAX RADAR WERE NEAR 50 KNOTS NEAR THE C-MAN. \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS PUT AT 35 KNOTS AND IS ONLY FOR OVER WATER\r\nWINDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS BELOW 30 KNOTS FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.  THE SYSTEM IS LOSING\r\nOR HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE AN OCCLUDED\r\nFRONTAL LOW ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY MOVING OVER EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS NEAR\r\nTHE COAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. \r\nTHE TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY IN RESPONSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 30.4N  82.6W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 32.0N  81.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 34.3N  78.9W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 37.5N  75.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 39.5N  72.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 43.0N  62.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gordon","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2000\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INDICATE THAT GORDON\r\nIS MERGING WITH THE PERSISTENT FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE REGION.  IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HR...AND CURRENTLY CONDITIONS\r\nARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/11.  GORDON IS BEING STEERED BY A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST...AND SHOULD BECOME FULLY\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  WHILE DETAILS DIFFER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nEASTWARD TURN.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE AND IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GORDON FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN STORM SUMMARIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...AND IN\r\nOFFSHORE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 31.5N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  81.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 34.9N  79.3W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 37.4N  76.3W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 40.0N  72.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 44.0N  58.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION\r\nIN THE LOW LEVELS.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER 24 HOURS\r\nBUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED.  THE LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS IN THIS\r\nAREA MISSED THE DISTURBANCE...BUT DEPRESSION ADVISORIES ARE\r\nINITIATED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH\r\nTIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE CARIBBEAN.\r\nCURRENT TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM AND THE\r\nGFDL.  NOGAPS HAS THE SAME IDEA BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HELPING THE\r\nOUTFLOW.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE...AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE\r\nAMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BE MORE THAN SHIFOR BUT LESS\r\nTHAN SHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE\r\nBEEN CONTACTED AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ISSUE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAYFIELD\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 15.6N  53.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  55.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.3N  58.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N  61.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.5N  64.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N  70.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nNIGHTTIME MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POORLY\r\nDEFINED CIRCULATION...WITH THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nEASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 25 KT...SO\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY MAY BE A LITTLE\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  A\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...\r\nAND IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SAVE\r\nCLIPER IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nNEAR 15N58W.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT POOR\r\nORGANIZATION...SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO.\r\nLARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nSHOULD FORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 24 HR OR SO...WHICH\r\nCOULD PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE NOGAPS\r\nAND AVN HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN HOW STRONG OF EASTERLIES...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY UPWARD AT THIS TIME.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST TO THE\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE DUTCH LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 15.9N  54.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 16.2N  56.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.4N  58.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N  61.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N  65.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N  71.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nNIGHTTIME MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY STILL INDICATES A POORLY\r\nDEFINED DEPRESSION.  THE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO ORGANIZE INTO A\r\nBAND...BUT THE CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE WEST.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/10.  A LOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE SPREAD THAN 6 HR AGO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE SEEN EARLIER OVER THE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL\r\nDEFINED NOW...AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW NEAR 15N58W.  LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE UPPER LEVEL\r\nWINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 36\r\nHR...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHOULD CAUSE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN WHICH SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT MIGHT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE EASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLIES WILL FAVOR\r\nSOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 16.0N  55.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.2N  56.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N  59.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 16.5N  62.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N  66.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  72.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON IS HAVING DIFFICULTY CLOSING OFF A CENTER.  THUS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF OPENING UP INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...OR VORTICITY\r\nMAXIMUM...MOVING WESTWARD OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION. \r\nTHE RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS CENTER IS RESULTING IN A LACK OF\r\nDEFINITE WEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER SINCE THE\r\nPLANE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WE WILL HANG ON TO THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY AND KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR\r\nTHE NORTHERN LEEWARDS.  HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT DISORGANIZING TREND\r\nCONTINUES...WE MAY BE FORCED TO DISCONTINUE ADVISORIES LATER TODAY. \r\n\r\nRAWINSONDE DATA FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS\r\nFROM LOW LEVELS THROUGH 250 MB WITH SOME HIGHER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. \r\nSO IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SLOWS DOWN...THE SHEAR MAY NOT BE SO\r\nPROHIBITIVE AND THE SYSTEM COULD SURVIVE.  FOR NOW...I AM SHOWING NO\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nNOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING...\r\nEXCEPT THAT THE FORWARD SPEED...15 KNOTS...IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED BUILD WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND MAINTAIN A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS DISORGANIZED...WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE IN GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 16.1N  57.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 16.2N  59.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N  63.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 16.8N  66.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N  69.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  74.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-16 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n\r\nAFTER EXTENSIVE INVESTIGATION OF THE DEPRESSION...THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS WERE UNABLE TO CLOSE OFF A DEFINITE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. \r\nTHEREFORE THE SYSTEM CAN NO LONGER BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  APPARENTLY THE FAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH HAS\r\nLED TO A VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE SYSTEM...HAS CAUSED THE VORTEX\r\nTO OPEN UP INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  THIS STRONG WAVE WILL BE CLOSELY\r\nMONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE\r\nWILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS EVENING. \r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WINDS TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE IN GUSTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1700Z 16.0N  58.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-19 23:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000\r\n\r\nAFTER EXTENSIVE INVESTIGATION...THE NOAA PLANE FINALLY REPORTED WEST\r\nWINDS JUST SOUTH OF THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER INDICATING THAT A CLOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AGAIN EXISTS.  THUS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE\r\nHAS REGENERATED AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS BROAD AND STILL NOT VERY WELL-DEFINED...BUT WITH THE\r\nFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nIS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nMOVEMENT IS ABOUT 295/14.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE\r\nCENTERED TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THERE\r\nIS GREATER UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A\r\nWEAK 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST\r\nAROUND THAT TIME.  THIS COULD TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BEND BY DAY 3.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA\r\nSHORTLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2300Z 19.9N  80.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N  82.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N  84.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.0N  86.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N  86.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 30.0N  85.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED...PROBABLY A DIURNAL\r\nFLUCTUATION...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nWITH GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.  WITH FAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLATEST GFDL COUPLED MODEL AND A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR THE\r\nPROGNOSTIC REASONING.  MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 295/14.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD FOLLOW THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF\r\nFLORIDA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN\r\nDOES NOT SHOW PENETRATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INTO THE\r\nGULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ACCELERATION AFTER THE SYSTEM REACHES THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF.  THIS TRACK IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 20.1N  81.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 21.1N  83.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 22.7N  85.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N  86.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 30.0N  85.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE APPARENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT...LOW\r\nSHEAR...ENOUGH CONVECTION...LOW-PRESSURE...WARM OCEAN...HIGH OCEAN\r\nHEAT CONTENT...YOU NAME IT...THE DEPRESSION FAILED TO STRENGTHEN. I\r\nAM SURE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF EXPLANATIONS AFTER THE FACT.\r\nBOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT\r\nPREVIOUS TREND FOR STRENGTHENING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED AT THIS TIME\r\nAND IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WEAKER THAN 12 HOURS AGO. \r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER. \r\nHOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING A 25 KNOTS DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME UNTIL A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA AND CHECK IF IS A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION STILL PERSISTS.\r\n \r\nWHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.   A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT INTENSIFICATION IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY\r\nTO OCCUR.  UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA... THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nCUBA WILL PROBABLY DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 21.2N  83.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 22.5N  85.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N  87.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 27.0N  87.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  87.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 34.0N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED AND NON-EXISTENT.  THE BEST ESTIMATE...BASED ON A\r\nLIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA AT 12Z...IS THAT\r\nIT IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHUS...IT WILL NOT BE DECLARED DISSIPATED YET.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/18.  THE COMBINATION\r\nOF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING STORM\r\nSYSTEM IN THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD\r\nTURN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND IS FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE VERGE\r\nOF BREAKING OPEN INTO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH...AND THAT COULD\r\nEASILY OCCUR LATER TODAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL STAY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT FOR 24-36 HR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.  THIS\r\nIS ANOTHER REASON WHY THE CYCLONE IS NOT BEING DECLARED DISSIPATED.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS\r\nARE LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 22.6N  85.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.3N  87.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N  88.7W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 30.0N  88.7W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  86.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED AND NON-EXISTENT.  THE BEST ESTIMATE...BASED ON A\r\nLIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA AT 12Z...IS THAT\r\nIT IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHUS...IT WILL NOT BE DECLARED DISSIPATED YET.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/18.  THE COMBINATION\r\nOF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING STORM\r\nSYSTEM IN THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD\r\nTURN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND IS FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE VERGE\r\nOF BREAKING OPEN INTO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH...AND THAT COULD\r\nEASILY OCCUR LATER TODAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL STAY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT FOR 24-36 HR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.  THIS\r\nIS ANOTHER REASON WHY THE CYCLONE IS NOT BEING DECLARED DISSIPATED.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS\r\nARE LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 22.6N  85.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.3N  87.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N  88.7W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 30.0N  88.7W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  86.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n\r\nAFTER ALMOST DISSIPATING THIS MORNING...THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nALTHOUGH STILL IN THE POORLY-DEFINED CATEGORY.  ADDITIONALLY...THERE\r\nIS SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND THIS INTENSITY IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY SHIP 9VBL REPORTING 26 KT AND 1008.7 MB AT 20Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/16.  THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE\r\nU.S. GREAT PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST.  ALL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nWITH THE CYCLONE LOOKING SLIGHTLY MORE HEALTHY...THE QUESTION ARISE\r\nOF WHETHER IT WILL INTENSIFY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING OVER THE\r\nGULF...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THIS SYSTEM HAS A\r\nPERSISTENT HISTORY OF NOT DEVELOPING.  SHIPS GUIDANCE SAYS IT SHOULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN...WHILE THE GFDL SAYS IT SHOULD NOT.  GIVEN THE TRACK\r\nRECORD OF THE SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STICK WITH\r\nPERSISTENCE UNTIL THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF REAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 23.9N  86.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 25.6N  87.6W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 28.5N  88.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 31.4N  87.4W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 34.0N  84.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS MAINTAINING SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER...AND LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED A POORLY-\r\nDEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KNOTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION\r\nENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER\r\nTHIS SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN...WHAT WAS\r\nPERCEIVED AS...A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST DAY OR\r\nSO.  THEREFORE...NO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES.   \r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSTRONGER MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES.  THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nEAST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE AND NCEP GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS...AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE\r\nLATEST GFDL COUPLED MODEL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM\r\nTOMORROW MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 24.4N  86.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 26.5N  87.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.7N  87.4W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 34.5N  82.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BETTER THAN 24\r\nHOURS AGO. THERE IS OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nSHIP 9MIM5 REPORTED 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND 1008 MB PRESSURE.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE SHOULD BE AROUND 1007 MB OR\r\nLOWER.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nSLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 340 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY BE\r\nINLAND OR NEAR THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS HOW STRONG WILL BE AT LANDFALL SINCE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED.  IT COULD BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS AS FORECAST\r\nBY GLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE INDICATED AT\r\nTHIS TIME SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS ALREADY HAD PLENTY OF\r\nOPPORTUNITIES TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WHILE MOVING\r\nTHROUGH WHAT WE RECOGNIZED AS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  OBVIOUSLY IT\r\nWAS NOT FAVORABLE BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION NEVER INTENSIFIED. \r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION IN A FEW\r\nHOURS AND PERHAPS BOTH MOTION AND INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE\r\nADJUSTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 25.1N  87.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 27.0N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 29.0N  88.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 31.0N  87.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 32.5N  85.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND 58 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONFIRMED EARLIER BUOY REPORTS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WAS STRENGTHENING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB. \r\nHOWEVER...THE PLANE OBSERVED 1006 MB AT A COUPLE OF OTHER LOCATIONS.\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HELENE WITH\r\n45 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11.  THE LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE EAST\r\nOF HELENE SHOULD CONTINUE IT ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK FOR 24\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BY-PASSING THE STORM...SO\r\nTHERE LIKELY WILL BE NO SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO UP\r\nTO LANDFALL...WITH SOME DIVERGENCE AFTER LANDFALL OVER HOW SHARPLY\r\nEASTWARD HELENE WILL TURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH A MORE\r\nEASTWARD GROUP OF MODEL TRACKS AFTER LANDFALL...AND IS NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST IN ABOUT 24 HR. \r\nTHUS...WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER\r\nTO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE STRENGTHENING...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE\r\nNORTHWEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MODEL\r\nOUTPUT SHOW MODERATE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF BETWEEN\r\nHELENE AND THE COAST...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES OVER THE COASTAL\r\nREGION.  THIS MAKES IT UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE...THAT HELENE\r\nWILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTAKES HELENE UP TO 55 KT AT LANDFALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS NOT YET COMPLETED A FULL FLIGHT PATTERN...\r\nSO THE WIND RADII MAY HAVE TO BE REVISED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 26.6N  87.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 28.3N  87.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 30.4N  87.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 32.0N  85.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 33.5N  82.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVED A BURST OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION WHERE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\nA NEW AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MEASURED A 998 MB PRESSURE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING OR THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  THE LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE EAST OF HELENE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE IT ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AS HELENE MOVES INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE COAST IN ABOUT 18 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE NORMAL FORECAST FOR A SYSTEM THAT LOOKS LIKE HELENE CURRENTLY\r\nDOES WOULD BE FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLIES MAY DECREASE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...\r\nWHICH WOULD OPEN THE WINDOW FOR ONE MORE ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. \r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT HELENE COULD REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  A COMBINATION OF LANDFALL AND INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN HELENE AFTER 18 HR.  SINCE HELENE IS\r\nSTRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THE SYSTEM COULD SURVIVE UNTIL\r\nIT MOVES BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS\r\nCURRENTLY LOOK UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY KIND OR REGENERATION AT THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HELENE HAS A\r\nSMALL AND RATHER ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD...THUS THE RATHER PECULIAR\r\nLOOKING WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER\r\nEASTWARD TO THE AUCILLA RIVER IN RESPONSE TO THE SOMEWHAT INCREASED\r\nCHANCE THAN HELENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 27.6N  87.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.2N  87.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 31.1N  86.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 32.8N  84.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 38.0N  70.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n \r\nOVERALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE\r\nEVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.   HOWEVER\r\nA SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION REGENERATED NEAR THE CENTER WHICH\r\nMIGHT ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS...OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\nRADIOSONDE AND VAD DATA FROM THE EGLIN WSR-88D SUGGEST SOME\r\nWEAKENING OF THE HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF\r\nCOASTAL AREA...BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR OVER HELENE.\r\nTHEREFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\nHAVING SAID ALL THAT...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN\r\nWINDS TO MAKE HELENE A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...NOW 360/13.  THE STORM CONTINUES\r\nTO BE STEERED AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-\r\nLAYER ANTICYCLONE.  500 MB WINDS FROM THE 00Z RADIOSONDE RUNS\r\nINDICATE THAT HELENES HEADING SHOULD CHANGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nVERY SOON...AND THE CENTER SHOULD REACH THE PANHANDLE COAST IN LESS\r\nTHAN 12 HOURS.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR VARIOUS OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HELENE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 29.1N  87.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 30.8N  86.1W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 33.0N  84.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 35.0N  81.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 36.5N  76.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 39.0N  67.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nIF I DID NOT HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA...I WOULD NOT\r\nKNOW THERE IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY JUST OBSERVING IR SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...LIKE IN MOST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES THIS YEAR...REMOVED THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HELENE IS NOW A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE 50 KNOTS IN A FEW AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nHELENE HAS BEEN STEERED NORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT NOW THAT IT IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT COULD\r\nCONTINUE NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 MORE HOURS\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THEREAFTER...HELENE SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nBEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SHOULD BE\r\nCROSSING THE COAST IN ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS BUT MOST OF THE WEATHER IS\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST...REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  IN FACT... MOST OF\r\nTHE WEATHER IS ALREADY CROSSING THE COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 30.0N  87.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 31.5N  87.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 34.0N  83.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 36.0N  80.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 37.5N  75.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 42.0N  65.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HELENE MADE LANDFALL NEAR FT. WALTON BEACH FLORIDA\r\nNEAR 12Z AND IS NOW MOVING 030/11 ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLE.  A\r\nRECENT BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SHOWED A VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE VELOCITY SIGNATURE ON THE EGLIN AFB WSR-88D...AND OTHER\r\nMESOCYCLONES HAVE BEEN SEEN IN STRONG BANDS FURTHER TO THE EAST. \r\nTHE VELOCITY DISPLAYS FROM THE EGLIN AND TALLAHASSEE WSR-88DS\r\nINDICATE WINDS OF 45-50 KT ALOFT IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS...SO HELENE\r\nREMAINS A 35 KT STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO SURPRISES IN THE TRACK FORECAST OR TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\nHELENE IS RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HR.  GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH TAKES HELENE\r\nNORTH AND DISSIPATES IT.\r\n \r\nHELENE SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HR WHILE OVER LAND.  IF\r\nIT SURVIVES PAST THAT...SOME OF THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS\r\nIT MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.  GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY OBVIOUS\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING IN THE MODELS THIS LOOKS A LITTLE DUBIOUS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AT\r\nTHAT TIME IN COORDINATION WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH HELENE WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND...A COMBINATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nSPREADING HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HR OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 30.9N  86.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 32.6N  84.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 34.6N  81.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 36.4N  77.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 38.5N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 44.0N  60.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Helene","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nHELENE IS NOW A BROAD SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN TO NEAR 1010 MB...AND THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IS 23 KT AT ALBANY GEORGIA.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE SET TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/15.  ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HELENE\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE IN A NORTHEASTERLY OR EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nDIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nHELENE SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY OR CHANGE LITTLE WHILE OVER LAND.  THE\r\nBIG QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMAINS MOVE\r\nINTO THE ATLANTIC IN 30-36 HR.  THE AVN...GFDL...AND NOGAPS SUGGEST\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION AT THAT TIME.  HOW THIS\r\nMIGHT HAPPEN IS NOT CLEAR.  THE MODELS DO NOT INDICATE A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH TO TRIGGER A BAROCLINIC DEEPENING...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nMOSTLY NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...WHICH WOULD HAMPER RE-DEVELOPMENT\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...MAINLY DUE TO\r\nINCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE FORWARD SPEED.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nWHAT THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE WILL BE AS HELENE APPROACHES THE COAST...\r\nAND THE FACT THAT OTHER CYCLONES SUCH AS DANNY HAVE STRENGTHENED\r\nUNEXPECTEDLY BETWEEN THE APPALACHIANS AND THE ATLANTIC...RE-\r\nDEVELOPMENT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF THE CYCLONE...AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD CONTINUE SPREADING HEAVY RAINS\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES UNTIL HELENE MOVES INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON HELENE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE\r\nCONTAINED IN STORM SUMMARIES FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER AND MARINE FORECASTS FROM THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 32.3N  84.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 33.5N  82.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 35.4N  79.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 37.7N  74.2W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 40.5N  67.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 46.5N  52.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND SO ADVISORIES ARE\r\nINITIATED AT THIS TIME.  THE CENTER IS ELONGATED AND NOT WELL\r\nDEFINED...MAKING THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION UNCERTAIN.  IT\r\nAPPEARS AS THOUGH THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS AHEAD OF\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THE CURRENT DECLINE IN\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DID SHOW SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 50 KT VECTORS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  THE AVN AND UKMET SHOW A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW SOME NORTHWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION\r\nDOES NOT RECURVE WITHIN 48 HOURS THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A MORE\r\nWESTERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LBAR.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING NOW...BUT THE AVN\r\nSUGGESTS SHEAR MAY INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE UKMET DOES NOT SHOW SO MUCH SHEAR AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 11.7N  23.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.3N  25.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.0N  28.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 13.6N  30.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N  33.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N  38.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL AT THIS TIME OF DAY WITH IMMATURE\r\nSYSTEMS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  AT 18Z SHIP PCCY\r\nREPORTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER WITH A PRESSURE OF\r\n1008 MB.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z AVN...WHICH PLACES THE LARGER OF TWO\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMA OVER 200 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...DOES NOT GENERATE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL\r\nSOLUTION.  IN FACT...THE DEPRESSION GETS ABSORBED INTO THIS FEATURE\r\nAND THE RESULTANT LOW TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE UKMET ANALYZES\r\nTHE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE EAST BUT IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE AVN...\r\nAND AS A RESULT HAS A TRACK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.  BOTH GLOBAL MODELS\r\nHAVE A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE NEAR 20N40W IN 72 HOURS THAT\r\nWE BELIEVE WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION FROM RECURVING DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE FIRST\r\nGFDL RUN ON THIS SYSTEM...KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND LBAR MODELS.\r\n \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 80 KT IN 72 HOURS...\r\nBUT THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATA SET FOR SHIPS ONLY INCLUDES DEPRESSIONS\r\nTHAT INTENSIFIED.  THE GFDL FORECASTS ABOUT 60 KT IN 72 H.  SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE\r\nWATER IS WARM SO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 12.1N  25.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 12.7N  27.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.2N  29.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.6N  32.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N  34.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N  40.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nEVENING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ISAAC.  BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFCANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED AND MORE CIRCULAR. \r\nA PRONOUNCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPPORT AT LEAST A 35 KT\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/13.  NOW THAT ISAAC HAS DEVELOPED INTO A\r\nDEEPER VERTICAL SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE DEEP LAYER\r\nFLOW WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE UKMET MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACKS...ONLY SLOWER...AND THE GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK.  BY 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE POSITION OF\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 55W LONGITUDE...AND ALSO THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC.  ALL\r\nTHREE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST  AND\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING IT.  THE UKMET KEEPS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF ISAAC...WHILE THE AVN MODEL DEVELOPS THE HIGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND BRINGS NORTHWESTLY FLOW ON THE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL IS IN BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  IF THE AVN\r\nMODEL VERIFIES...THEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WOULD TEND TO TURN ISAAC\r\nMORE WESTERLY AFTER 60 TO 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ALMOST ON TOP\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nISSAC MAY BE THE ONLY TRUE DEEP-TROPICS TROPICAL CYCLONE SO FAR THIS\r\nYEAR WITHOUT ENCOUNTERING ADVERSE SHEAR ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.  AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH ALONG 55W WESTWARD AND WEAKENING IT. \r\nALSO...THE DISTURBANCE WEST OF ISSAC CURRENTLY ALONG 40W IS ACTING\r\nTO DEFLECT SOME OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR WELL NORTH OF ISAAC...WHICH\r\nMAY HAVE ALLOWED THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO DEVELOP.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER AND THE INTENSIFICATION RATE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL \r\nBELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MDOEL.  HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A WELL-\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL...RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND HIGHER INTENSITIES MAY HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED ON\r\nTHE NEXT ADVISORY...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 12.5N  26.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.0N  28.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 13.6N  30.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.1N  33.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.5N  36.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N  41.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nSTRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON\r\nA SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. \r\nBANDING FEATURES AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPROVE...AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT TO THE NORTH\r\nAND FAIR ELSEWHERE.  THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO REMAINS\r\nINTACT AND IS EXPANDING TO THE WEST OF ISAAC.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/17.  ISAAC HAS BECOME A MUCH MORE VERTICALLY\r\nDEEP SYSTEM THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO BE INDICATING.  THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED THE PAST 6 HOURS POSSIBLY DUE TO THE\r\nINCREASED DEEP LAYER STEERING FLOW AS INDICATED IN THE UW-CIMMS\r\nWATER VAPOR WIND ANALYSES.  HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH\r\nMORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN THE PREVIOUS THREE RUNS AND GENERALLY\r\nAGREE ON A WEST OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND FASTER THROUGH 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED AFTERWARDS.  THE NEW 22/00Z AVN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE\r\nA BETTER HANDLE ON ISAAC THIS MODEL RUN AND WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY\r\nALONG WITH LBAR.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO APPARENT SHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT ISAAC...UNLESS IT\r\nDEVELOPS FROM THE EAST BASED ON THE RECENT INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND IMPROVING...WHICH\r\nFURTHER SUPPORTS STRENGTHENING.  THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR\r\nIS THE DRY AIR THAT LIES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  IF ISAAC OUTRUNS THE\r\nCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...THEN\r\nTHE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW WILL ENTRAIN DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM AND\r\nCAUSE ISAAC TO WEAKEN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nRATE WAS SLOWED AFTER 12 HOURS AND KEPT BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL WHICH BRINGS ISAAC TO 91 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 12.7N  28.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.2N  30.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.6N  33.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N  36.2W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.4N  38.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N  43.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ABUNDANT...ISAAC CONTINUES TO LOOK\r\nWELL ORGANIZED THIS MORNING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 KT FROM KGWC TO 45 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE LOWER OF\r\nTHESE MAY BE CLOSER TO THE TRUTH.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nUNCHANGED.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING AND STRENGTHENING OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS EXPECTED.  BEYOND THAT...A LARGE UPPER TROUGH\r\nNEAR 55W WILL HAVE TO GET OUT OF THE WAY...WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...OR THE SHEAR OVER ISAAC WILL INCREASE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE PENDING SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE TROUGH IS RETROGRADING.\r\n\r\nISAAC IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AND\r\nMOVE WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BETWEEN THE\r\nGFDL AND UKMET.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 13.4N  29.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.9N  31.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N  34.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.8N  36.8W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.2N  39.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N  43.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON ISAAC HAS BEEN BUILDING A FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AS IT HAS CONSOLIDATED A HEALTHY CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE THROUGH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE\r\nEAST AND NORTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM KGWC\r\nAND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n45 KT.  WITH THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON\r\nAND ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC AS EARLIER...\r\nWITH A HINT THAT THE UPPER TROUGH AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nINCREASING THE VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS\r\nBEFORE...CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD UNTIL THE FUTURE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE CLEAR.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PHILOSPHY. \r\nISAAC IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AND\r\nMOVE WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...\r\nUKMET...AND NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOMETHING OF A SHIFT IN THE LONGER RANGE PROGNOSIS...\r\nHOWEVER.  THE LATEST GFDL DOES NOT SHOW AS STRONG A NORTHWARD TURN\r\nIN THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY PERIOD AS THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THE NOGAPS\r\nHAS SHIFTED IN A SIMILAR FASHION.  SOME IMPACT ON THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES...WHILE UNLIKELY...CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 13.8N  31.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.4N  33.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  36.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N  38.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N  40.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N  45.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH A\r\nSMALL CDO FEATURE HAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE\r\nPAST 4 HOURS.  IN FACT...A 2311Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 90\r\nPERCENT CLOSED...10NM DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO \r\n55 KT BASED ON THE SSMI POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 45 TO 50 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES\r\nTO IMPROVE AND ALSO EXPAND TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11...WHICH IS GENEROUS WITH THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  ISAAC MAY HAVE SLOWED ENOUGH TO FINALLY ALLOW THE\r\nINNER CORE WIND FIELD TO CONSOLIDATE AND BECOME DEEPER IN THE\r\nVERTICAL.  THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS SHIFTED\r\nFURTHER SOUTH AND MORE WESTWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IN\r\nFACT...THE GFDL MODEL ACTUALLY TAKES ISAAC SOUTH OF DUE WEST AFTER\r\n24 HOURS.  WHILE I AM NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON THAT TYPE OF MOTION...\r\nTHE GFDL USUALLY HANDLES DEEP VERTICAL SYSTEMS QUITE WELL...SO THE\r\nOVERALL TREND OF MORE WESTWARD AND LESS POLEWARD MOTION WAS \r\nSTRONGLY CONSIDERED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND BETWEEN THE LBAR AND GUNS MODELS.  THIS SCENARIO\r\nIS REASONABLE BASED ON THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST OF ISAAC BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT\r\nTO THE NORTH.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nTO REMAIN INTACT AND EVEN STRENGTHEN... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP\r\nISAAC ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE.\r\n\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ALLUDED TO...ISAAC APPEARS TO ALREADY HAVE\r\nTHE STRUCTURE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY A SIGNIFICANT ONE\r\nAT THAT. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INTENSIFICATION WAS NOT\r\nINCREASED MUCH OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS IS DUE TO THE SMALL\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE BEING SUSCEPTIBLE TO MINOR AMOUNTS OF SHEAR WHICH\r\nCAN EASILY DISRUPT THE SMALL INNER CORE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN\r\nTHE ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN...THEN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MAY BE TOO LOW IF THE SMALL EYE-FEATURE PERSISTS AND\r\nACTUALLY BECOMES A WELL-ESTABLISHED EMBEDDED EYE DRING THE NEXT 6 TO\r\n12 HOURS.  COOLER SSTS AHEAD WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE ISAAC FROM\r\nBECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nNOTE: THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN UNNERVING SHIFT IN THE LONGER RANGE\r\nPROGNOSIS WITH THE VARIOUS GFDL MODELS AND THE NOGAPS MODEL TRENDING\r\nMORE TOWARD A WESTWARD TRACK BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE 22/00Z MRFX RUN LAST NIGHT.  SOME EFFECTS BY ISAAC ON THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES...WHILE UNLIKELY...CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 13.8N  31.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.1N  33.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N  36.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N  38.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N  41.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N  46.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2000\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES\r\nTO IMPROVE GRADUALLY AND IT HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM BANDING TO CDO. \r\nTHE OUTFLOW AT THIS TIME LOOKS GOOD WITH UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS\r\nEMANATING FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT HIGH\r\nSPEED.  THIS IS IN GENERAL A SIGN OF STRENGTHENING.  T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n3.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AT\r\nLEAST 55 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nHOWEVER...DESPITE THE CURRENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...I SEE AN\r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ISAAC.  NCEP GLOBAL AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WELL AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THE ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nALREADY BEING DEPICTED ON WV IMAGES. THE UK MODEL BRINGS UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS WOULD PLACE ISAAC\r\nWITHIN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IN THREE DAYS UNLESS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE MOVES FASTER AND REMAINS UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. \r\nIT SEEMS THAT ISAAC IS DOING THE OPPOSITE...ITS IS SLOWING DOWN\r\nINSTEAD.  GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS PREVAILED THIS\r\nSEASON...THE OPTION OF SHEARING IS THE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...I AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE A CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10 OR SLOWER. THERE IS\r\nENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THERE ARE SEVERAL MODELS WHICH\r\nKEEP ISAAC ON A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE GFDL VERY CLOSELY.  THE LONG RANGE INTEGRATION OF THIS\r\nMODEL BRINGS ISAAC FARTHER TO WEST THAN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS BUT\r\nSTILL NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 14.0N  32.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N  34.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.2N  36.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N  38.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N  40.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 15.5N  43.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/10 ALTHOUGH THE POSITION WAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD BASED ON EARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY.  ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS SHOW A SLOW MOTION VARYING FROM WESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS SLOW MOTION IS THE RESULT OF A CUT-OFF UPPER\r\nLOW LOCATED NORTHWEST OF ISAAC AND MOVING SLOWLY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0/4.0/3.5 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC\r\nRESPECTIVELY...SO ISAAC IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BASED ON THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE WITH A NICE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.  ONE\r\nCAN ALMOST IMAGINE THE HINT OF AN INTERLOCKING BANDING EYE FEATURE\r\nON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 0759Z SSM/I PASS SHOWS A HOLE IN\r\nTHE CONVECTION NEAR WHERE THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE.  SINCE\r\nUPGRADING TO A HURRICANE IS SOMEWHAT IRREVOCABLE...I WILL\r\nCONSERVATIVELY INCREASE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 60 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME AND PROBABLY UPGRADE TO A HURRICANE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  THE\r\nPREVIOUS DICUSSION DESCRIBED A SCENARIO OF AN UPPER TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPING OVER ISAAC...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY STRONG\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  SO THE FORECAST IS\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING TO 80 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 14.4N  33.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.7N  35.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N  37.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N  39.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.8N  40.7W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.5N  44.0W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2000\r\n \r\nA TINY EYE FEATURE HAS PERSISTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL DAY.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 90/77/77 KNOTS FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/KGWC AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL LIMITS\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO 92 KNOTS...BUT THE OFFICIAL WILL GO A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER SINCE SHIPS WAS INITIALIZED WITH ONLY 70 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TO 285/10.  THE\r\nMODELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFDL.  THE LATEST AVIATION MODEL SHOW A\r\nRATHER WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT 500 MB ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION TO ABOUT FIVE KNOTS BY 48\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL THAN THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 14.8N  34.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.3N  36.3W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.8N  38.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.2N  39.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.6N  40.7W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N  42.5W    95 KTS\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2000\r\n\r\nISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING AND IS NOW A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND\r\nKGWC AND NEAR 115 KT FROM TAFB.  THE SMALL 10 NM DIAMETER EYE HAS\r\nPERIODICALLY BEEN CLOUD-FILLED...SO THE LOWER END OF THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS\r\nVERY IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND ON THE WEST SIDE. ISAAC HAS\r\nMAINLY A SMALL INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH LITTLE OR NO\r\nBANDING FEATURES EVIDENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09.  ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING ISAAC ON A 285 TO 290 DEGREES TRACK\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE UKMET IS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS...AVN...\r\nAND GFDL MODELS.  THIS RESULTS IN ISAAC MOVING INTO THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE 200 MB SYNOPTIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONE WHERE SOUTHERLY\r\nFLOW FORCES ISAAC MORE POLEWARD.  THE AVN AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE\r\nPREFERRED WHICH ACTUALLY BRING WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ONTO ISAAC BY 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ACT TO TAKE THE HURRICANE MORE WESTWARD.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 30N LATITUDE NORTHWARD TO 35N\r\nLATITUDE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THAT SCENARIO ALONE\r\nSHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY SHIFT POLEWARD EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...BUT WELL NORTH...OR RIGHT..OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nEXPERIMENTAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT ISAAC HAS DEFIED ALL ODDS AND HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nOVER SST WATER LESS THAN 27C...THERE IS NOT MUCH ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR INTENSITY\r\nMODELS TAKE ISAAC UP TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AFTERWARDS.  THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE INFLOW-OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED..AND\r\nISAAC COULD POSSIBLY REACH MINIMAL CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY\r\nA LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER 48 TO 72 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nEXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 15.0N  35.4W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.2N  36.6W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.6N  38.2W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N  39.8W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  41.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N  44.5W   105 KTS\r\n\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2000\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED OVERNIGHT...WITH THE EYE\r\nBECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED AND THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS\r\nSYMMETRIC.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n102 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 105 KT FOR NOW.  A TRMM\r\nOVERPASS AT 0503Z STILL SHOWED A VERY TIGHT EYEWALL BUT IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT ISAAC HAS PEAKED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/08.  THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY\r\nUNCOMPLICATED...AS ISAAC REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nTHAT SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK\r\nFOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE 00Z AVN AND THE GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM\r\nIT ARE GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N53W.  THE AVN HAS A STRONGER\r\nREFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MID LEVELS THAN THE UKMET...AND IT\r\nCONTRIBUTES TO A WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...HENCE THE\r\nSLOWER MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSOME SHORT-TERM WEAKENING WILL OCCUR IF THE TIGHT EYEWALL IS IN FACT\r\nCOLLAPSING...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 15.2N  36.1W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.6N  37.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.2N  38.9W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N  40.4W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  42.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N  45.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2000\r\n\r\nAFTER RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS...ISAAC HAS\r\nWEAKENED THIS MORNING.  THIS WAS APPARENTLY DUE TO AN INNER CORE\r\nFLUCTUATION SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS TO BE\r\nFAVORABLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nFLUCTUATION...WITH SOME WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD SINCE ISAAC IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CROSS OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS NEAR 43-45 W\r\nLONGITUDE.  WESTERLY SHEAR MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED NEAR\r\n25N53W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED...BUT THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nPREDICTS A NEW UPPER LOW TO DROP INTO ABOUT THE SAME PLACE IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR.\r\n\r\nON THE OTHER HAND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RUN KEEPS A FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL\r\nOUTPUT CALLS FOR GREATER WEAKENING THAN I HAVE INDICATED HERE...BUT\r\nIT SEEMS TO BE EXAGGERATING THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SST.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES WNW AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...290/10.   \r\nISAAC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...AND THEREFORE CONTINUE ITS WNW MOTION. THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS\r\nABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  IT IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE LATEST RUN OF THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE RADII OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY\r\nON THE BASIS OF A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 15.7N  37.4W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 16.2N  38.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.8N  40.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N  42.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N  44.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  48.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2000\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS MADE A REAPPEARANCE ON VISIBLE AND ENHANCED IR\r\nIMAGES...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN NUDGED BACK UP TO 100 KNOTS. \r\nALTHOUGH SOME MORE FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WE HAVE ESSENTIALLY NO SKILL IN\r\nPREDICTING THESE CHANGES.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nMERELY MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR A WHILE.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR...SINCE\r\nANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE INCREASING\r\nSHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nGREATER WEAKENING...BUT PRIMARILY DUE TO DECREASED SST...WHICH DOES\r\nNOT SEEM TO BE TOTALLY REALISTIC.\r\n\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE\r\nREASONING BEHIND IT.  MOTION REMAINS 290/10. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO MOVE WNW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS...WHICH ARE\r\nIN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT.  THIS NHC FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS...GUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 16.0N  38.3W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N  39.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.1N  41.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  43.6W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  45.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N  49.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF ISAAC HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT SHOWS UP NICELY AS A 5NM DIAMETER EYE IN\r\nRECENT TRMM AND SSMI OVERPASSES.  HOWEVER...A 1944Z TRMM OVERPASS\r\nSHOWED THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL EYE...SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES OBTAINED FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE\r\nAGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...THE VERY COLD\r\nTOPS OF -80 TO -82C THAT HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE EYE...PLUS THE\r\nSMALL EYE SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  DUE TO THE SMALL EYE DIAMETER\r\n...JUST A SMALL AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER WILL OBSCURE THE EYE FEATURE\r\nIN INFRARED IMAGERY AND CAUSE THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO BE LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS. ISAAC HAS MADE\r\nA LARGE WOBBLE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT A\r\nGENERAL TRACK BACK TOWARD 290 DEGREES IS EXPECTED ONCE THE INNER\r\nCORE CONVECTIVE FLUCTUATIONS SMOOTH OUT.  ALL THE MODELS MAINTAIN\r\nTHE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ISAAC ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. \r\nTHE UKMET MODEL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND TURNS ISAAC DUE WEST AFTER\r\n48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nUKMET AND CLOSE THE GUNS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 16.4N  38.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N  40.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 17.8N  41.9W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.6N  44.1W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N  46.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N  51.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES WITH ISAAC THIS MORNING.  AN\r\nEYE/WARM SPOT IS STILL APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE WARMED A LITTLE BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO NEW MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY TO ASSESS THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nALSO REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...100 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF ISAAC MAY BE ENCOUNTERING\r\nSOME RESISTANCE.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE OFFERS A MIXED BAG...WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL FORECASTING A MODEST DECLINE AND THE GFDL A MODEST\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THERE SHOULD BE SOME\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nBE ENOUGH TO MARKEDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  ISAAC WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nVERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  THE NEW UKMET\r\nREMAINS FASTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE BUT NO LONGER HAS THE TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 16.9N  39.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N  41.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.3N  43.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.2N  45.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N  47.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N  51.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2000\r\n\r\nISAACS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS BEING IMPEDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE EYE\r\nOR A WARM SPOT IS NOT EVIDENT AT THIS TIME.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 90 KNOTS AS PER DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM METEOROLOGISTS AT TAFB\r\nMIAMI...SAB WASHINGTON...AND THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY.  NOT MUCH\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  THERE APPEARS TO BE\r\nSOME MORE WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ISAAC...BUT THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS A LARGE OUTER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE AND IT MAY BE SOMEWHAT\r\nRESILIENT TO THE SHEAR.   HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM GETS MORE DISRUPTED-\r\nLOOKING LATER TODAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 30N.  THIS STEERING REGIME IS LIKELY TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...UNTIL ISAAC NEARS THE WESTERN FLANK\r\nOF THE HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL RUNS USING EITHER THE NCEP\r\nAND NAVY GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 17.4N  40.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  42.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N  44.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N  46.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  48.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N  52.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2000\r\n\r\nAN ILL-DEFINED EYE HAS BEEN NOTED ON IR IMAGES...ALONG WITH A DIMPLE\r\nFEATURE ON VISIBLE PICTURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nSTILL CLOSE TO 90 KNOTS...WHICH IS USED FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  HOWEVER ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS\r\nSHOW DECREASING SHEAR NORTHWEST OF ISAAC.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN\r\nWHETHER THE OUTFLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY POOR OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL IMPROVE WITH TIME.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SHOWS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT LOSS OF STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/9.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT ISAAC MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD BE NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE ANTICYCLONE...AND ABOUT READY\r\nTO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nONLY HINTS AT THIS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nTHE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL MOVES ISAAC SOMEWHAT FASTER IN 2 TO 3 DAYS\r\nBUT I AM RELUCTANT TO PICK UP THE FORWARD SPEED TOO MUCH. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 17.8N  41.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N  42.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N  44.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 20.6N  46.8W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.8N  49.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 24.5N  53.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 25 2000\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO 19... \r\n\r\nISAAC HAS BEEN ABLE TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN INTENSITY THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...DESPITE SOME WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 90 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND KGWC.  ISAAC MAY INTERMITTENTLY BE A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nAS INDICATED BY A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KT FROM SAB...\r\nBUT THE EYE FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST IN INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nAND THE CDO IS ELONGATED MORE EAST-WEST WHICH SUGGESTS SOME\r\nDISRUPTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND WIND FIELD.  HOWEVER...\r\nTRMM AND SSMI OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS STILL INDICATE A\r\nSMALL EYE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 NM IN DIAMETER.  OUTFLOW REMAINS\r\nIMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nMOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE...300/9.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  ISAAC IS\r\nTRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAND...IN TIME...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nMORE POLEWARD...POSSIBLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.  THERE WILL\r\nLIKELY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...BUT LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE MOST\r\nPART DUE TO THE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nHOWEVER... AFTER 48 HOURS...ISAAC WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER\r\nAND THE SHEAR MAY LET UP JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nBEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE\r\nAHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON RECENT GALE\r\nWIND RADIUS ANALYSES FROM KGWC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 18.3N  42.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N  43.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N  45.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  47.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  49.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 25.0N  54.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 90 KT...AND I\r\nNOTE IN PASSING THAT THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE FROM SAB WAS ERRONEOUSLY\r\nREPORTED TO BE 102 KT.   THERE IS NO EYE PRESENT.  THE LAST FEW\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...AS WELL AS A RECENTLY-RECEIVED MICROWAVE\r\nPASS...INDICATE THAT SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON\r\nISAAC.  IN FACT...VISIBLE IMAGERY IN ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO MAY SHOW\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN I HAVE WITH\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  IF SO...THE SYSTEM IS NOT AS STRONG AS INDICATED\r\nHERE.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. \r\nAS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THE STEERING\r\nGRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE AND RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 18.7N  43.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.3N  44.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.3N  46.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.4N  47.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  50.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 27.0N  55.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n\r\nAS WAS SUSPECTED EARLIER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS HAVING A GREATER\r\nIMPACT ON ISAAC THIS MORNING.  THIS IS APPARENTLY DUE TO A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW RATHER THAN STRONGER\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80\r\nKNOTS...AND A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING MAY OCCUR DUE TO THE CURRENT\r\nSHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY TRENDS SHOWN BELOW ARE SIMILAR\r\nTO THOSE GIVEN BY THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...AS ISAAC TURNS MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES BECOME A LITTLE WARMER...RESTRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR.\r\n\r\nAS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR...THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST...290/10.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES FOR THE\r\nFIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME\r\nTHEREAFTER.  ISAAC SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nINCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASED STEERING FLOW\r\nBETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ROUGHLY A CONSENSUS OF ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TRACKS...\r\nWHICH REMAIN IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON HEADING BUT WITH SOME\r\nVARIANCE OF FORWARD SPEEDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 18.8N  44.4W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 19.3N  45.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N  48.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N  50.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N  52.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 27.5N  56.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n\r\nRECENT IMAGES SHOW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...BUT THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY SYMMETRIC AND THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER MAY STILL NOT BE VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 80 KNOTS SO THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS FIXED AT 80 KNOTS.  OUTFLOW CONTINUES\r\nTO BE POOR TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT MAY BE EXPANDING EVER\r\nSO SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER MAY BE A SIGN OF STRENGTHENING BUT UNTIL THE ORGANIZATION IS\r\nCLEARLY IMPROVED...I WILL NOT FORECAST INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM.  LATER ON...WARMER WATERS AND PERHAPS REDUCED SHEAR MAY ALLOW\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  ISAAC HAS NOT YET REACHED THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT IT SHOULD DO SO\r\nWITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ROUGHLY OF A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND A BIT FASTER\r\nTHAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nOUTER WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nOVER ISAAC FROM EARLIER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 19.1N  45.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 19.7N  47.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.2N  49.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  51.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 25.0N  53.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 29.5N  57.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC HAS REDEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND\r\nA WEAK EYE FEATURE CAN BE SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 80 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 80 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL POSITION WAS\r\nLOCATED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE FIX\r\nPOSITIONS DUE TO SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  ISAAC MADE A LARGE\r\nWOBBLE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320 DEGREES...DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS AS THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...A\r\nGENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD RESUME NOW THAT ISAAC\r\nIS BEING STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW AGAIN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nRECENT RIGHTWARD SHIFT IN THE POSITION...BUT AFTERWARDS THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR REASONING. \r\nHOWEVER...THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON\r\nRECENT SHIP REPORTS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF ISAAC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 20.1N  46.2W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  47.7W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 22.3N  49.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 23.7N  51.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 25.5N  53.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 30.5N  57.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n \r\nA TRMM OVERPASS AT 0259Z FROM THE NRL WEB PAGE SHOWED THAT ISAAC HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A NEW EYEWALL...AT 45 NM IN DIAMETER CONSIDERABLY LARGER\r\nTHAN THE ONE IT HAD A COUPLE DAYS AGO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 80 KT...AND THE UW OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATE IS 90 KT.  WITH THE FORMATION OF A NEW EYEWALL THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND BUMPS THE INTENSITY UP\r\nTO 85 KT.  THE OVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...IS\r\nIMPROVING AND ISAAC WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS.  ALL\r\nOF THE ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE AGAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12.  ISAAC IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIMETER OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTS THE PREVIOUS 72\r\nHOUR FORECAST POINT TO THE RIGHT AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND\r\nGFDL.\r\n\r\nON THIS TRACK ISAAC WOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 20.7N  47.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.7N  49.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 23.1N  51.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 25.0N  53.3W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 27.0N  55.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  56.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n\r\nAN IRREGULAR EYE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nUP TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 90\r\nKNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE EXCEPT\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE.  SINCE THE SHEAR HAS\r\nRELAXED AND ISAAC WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS...RE-\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE SEEMS A GOOD BET.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE COMMENCED AS THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12.  THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING BEHIND\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nITS TREK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD AND APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 21.4N  48.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 22.4N  50.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 24.2N  52.3W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 26.3N  54.3W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  55.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 35.5N  55.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC HAS A VERY GOOD PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS\r\nDEFINITELY MUCH BETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. IT HAS A DISTINCT EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY RINGS OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT.\r\nRAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE BUT THE\r\nWINDS ARE INCREASED TO ONLY AT 95 KNOTS AT THIS TIME UNTIL THE T 6.0\r\nPERSISTS FOR A LITTLE WHILE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...WINDS WILL BE\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SSTS AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ISAAC TO 105 KNOTS AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY SHIPS BUT COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST IS EASIER TODAY. MODEL FORECAST TRACKS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED...TURNING ISAAC GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS\r\nIS THE TRACK YOU SHOULD EXPECT GIVEN THE PRESENT AND FORECAST\r\nSTEERING PATTERN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 22.3N  50.2W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 23.5N  52.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 25.5N  54.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N  55.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 30.5N  56.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 37.0N  54.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE AND A COLD CONVECTIVE EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 102 KT...102 KT...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB...AND\r\nSOME OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN IN THE 110-115 KT\r\nRANGE. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE RAISED TO 100 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/14.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WITH A BROAD DEEP\r\nLAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS COMBINATION SHOULD GRADUALLY RECURVE ISAAC TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING ON HOW FAST IT WILL\r\nMOVE AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR 48 HR...AND LITTLE TO THE EAST AND FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AT 72 HR.\r\n\r\nISAAC HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nFAIR TO POOR OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK MOVES ISAAC INTO GRADUALLY COOLER WATER AFTER 36\r\nHR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UP TO\r\nTHAT TIME FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 23.2N  51.0W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 24.6N  52.7W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 26.8N  54.7W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 28.9N  55.8W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  56.0W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 38.5N  51.5W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY.  ISAAC HAS\r\nMAINTAINED AN EXCELLENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 KT...AND A RECENT TIME-AVERAGED MEAN UW\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE GIVES 110 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 105 KT.  ISAAC WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER\r\nAND THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...SO\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK IS NOW 310/14.  ISAAC CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT WITH A STRONGER EASTWARD COMPONENT ON DAY 3 OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK...BUT\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE RATE OF ACCELERATION. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CORE MODELS NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL ARE IN PRETTY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT HERE AND THE CONSENSUS THEREOF IS USUALLY HARD TO\r\nBEAT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 24.4N  52.4W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 25.7N  54.1W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  55.7W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 30.6N  56.5W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 33.5N  56.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 39.5N  49.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":29,"Date":"2000-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A FAIRLY CLASSICAL APPEARANCE ON\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CDO AND THE COLDEST\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE NOT WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE EYE.  HENCE...\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS STILL\r\n105 KNOTS.  ISAAC IS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW...AND IT WILL REMAIN OVER 28 DEG C WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  ISAAC SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS LIKELY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AS THE HURRICANE\r\nNEARS THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. COAST TOMORROW SHOULD BYPASS ISAAC...WITH A RATHER\r\nZONAL FLOW IN THE WESTERLIES BEHIND THE TROUGH.  HOWEVER THERE\r\nSHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH STEERING FLOW TO ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFDL/U.K. MET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS...GUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 25.6N  53.5W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 27.3N  55.1W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 30.1N  56.2W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 33.0N  55.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 36.0N  53.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 41.0N  47.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":30,"Date":"2000-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n\r\nIT WAS NOTED EARLIER THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARED FAVORABLE...AND \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT INDEED THERE HAS BEEN\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING.  ENHANCED IR DATA SHOWS THAT COLDER CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CDO.  THREE- AND\r\nSIX-HOURLY AVERAGED OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE ABOUT 6.2...WHICH\r\nEQUATES TO A 120-KNOT...CAT. 4...CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  IT IS\r\nPRESUMED THAT THE SYSTEM IS NEAR MAXIMUM STRENGTH...BUT WE WOULD NOT\r\nBE TOO SURPRISED IF A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION TOOK PLACE.  IT IS\r\nQUITE RARE TO SEE SUCH AN INTENSE HURRICANE APPROACHING 30N\r\nLATITUDE.  BY 48 HOURS THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SUB-26\r\nDEG C WATERS...SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nFORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 17 KNOTS OR MORE.  ISAAC CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. \r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NOT TOO MUCH\r\nACCELERATION IS SHOWN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD SINCE THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SHOWS THAT THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. COAST TOMORROW WILL BYPASS ISAAC.  HOWEVER IT IS\r\nSTILL BELIEVED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVED ALONG BY THE MID-\r\nLATITUDE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND SHOULD BE LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON THEREAFTER.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 27.4N  54.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 29.7N  55.8W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 32.7N  56.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 35.5N  54.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 38.0N  52.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 42.5N  46.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":31,"Date":"2000-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ISAAC HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 115 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AND A 28/2132Z\r\nSSMI OVERPASS INDICATING CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS.  TOPS HAVE ALSO WARMED\r\nDURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...SO ISAAC PROBABLY PEAKED AT 18Z AND 00Z. \r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS THE\r\nCLASSIC CIRCULAR APPEARANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 345/15.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  ISAAC APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND POINT OF RECURVATURE.\r\nISAAC MAY SLOW EVEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING THE RIDGE AXIS\r\nTHAT LIES ALONG 32N-33N LATITUDE...AFTER WHICH GRADUAL ACCELERATION\r\nIS FORECAST.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON ISAAC RECURVING TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE UKMET\r\nWHICH SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED OF ISAAC BY DIGGING THE SYSTEM INTO\r\nTHE MEAN RIDGE AXIS RATHER THAN RIDING IT UP AND OVER THE RIDGE. THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE RECURVES ISAAC TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND THAT SCENARIO SEEMS THE MOST REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE APPROACHING EASTERN U.S. TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL AND BAMD MODELS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT ISAAC HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE...SOME WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.  WEAKENING IS ALSO\r\nLIKELY SINCE ISAAC IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS. \r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONLY GRADUAL SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ISAAC TRACKS OVER 24C TO 22C WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 28.6N  55.3W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 30.7N  56.0W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 33.3N  55.8W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.8N  54.1W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 38.0N  51.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 42.5N  44.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":32,"Date":"2000-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nUNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nAND IN A 29/0207Z TRMM OVERPASS.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION AND OUTFLOW REMAIN GOOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/17.  THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPEARS TO BE FLATTENING OUT IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND ISAAC SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS.  RECURVATURE SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WITH\r\nA GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AFTERWARDS.  THE LATEST\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE PREVIOUS TWO\r\nFORECAST TRACKS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION.  THE UKMET\r\nMODEL IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND MUCH FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS 2 MODEL RUNS.\r\n\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED NOW THAT ISAAC IS UNDERGOING AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND MOVING OVER COOLER WATER.  HOWEVER...\r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY GRADUAL SLOW WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\nAFTERWARDS...MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ISAAC TRACKS OVER\r\n24C TO 22C WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON 06Z \r\nSHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 30.5N  56.0W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 32.8N  56.2W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 35.6N  54.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 38.0N  52.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 40.0N  48.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 45.0N  37.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":33,"Date":"2000-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING CONTINUES. \r\nHOWEVER ISAAC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER\r\nDAY OR SO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY WHICH TIME ISAAC IS LIKELY TO\r\nHAVE BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS NORTHWARD...IMPLYING THAT ISAAC IS CROSSING THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  THERE ARE FEW CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR IN A DAY\r\nOR SO AS THE HURRICANE STARTS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE MID-\r\nLATITUDE STEERING FLOW.  THE CURRENT OFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\nTHIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWIND AND SEAS RADII FOR THIS LARGE HURRICANE HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON\r\nTHE BASIS OF 12Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 32.0N  56.2W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 34.3N  56.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 37.0N  53.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 40.0N  49.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 42.5N  44.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 47.0N  32.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":34,"Date":"2000-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n\r\nISAAC IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 27 DEG C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE EYE IS BECOMING INDISTINCT\r\nAND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING.  MOREOVER...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS LOSING ITS SYMMETRY AND BECOMING ELONGATED TO THE\r\nNORTH.  CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET AT 90 KNOTS FOLLOWING DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  ISAAC SHOULD LOSE MOST OF\r\nITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 010/16.  ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS THE STEERING BY THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES BECOMES DOMINANT.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 33.7N  55.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 36.0N  54.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 39.0N  50.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 42.0N  46.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 45.0N  40.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 52.0N  20.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":35,"Date":"2000-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n\r\nISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATER AND EXPERIENCES SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OUTFLOW REMAINS\r\nGOOD TO EXCELLENT TO THE NORTH AND POOR TO RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21.  ISAAC HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  RAPID RECURVATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE\r\nGETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATER AND GENERALLY WEAKEN\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 35.4N  54.1W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 37.9N  51.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  47.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 44.0N  41.5W    70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 47.0N  33.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 54.0N  13.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":36,"Date":"2000-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nTHOUGH VERY COLD CLOUDS PERSIST IN A PARTIAL RING...IR IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY TILTED TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE SURFACE CENTER COULD BE 30 NM OR MORE SW OF THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION.  FOR THIS ADVISORY...AN INTERMEDIATE POSITION IS\r\nCHOSEN AND THIS IMPLIES A LITTLE SLOWER MOTION...035/17 KT...THAN IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nCONTINUES AS ISAAC DECLINES AND THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW\r\nNEAR 80 KT.\r\n \r\nWHILE SOME READJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER POSITION IS LIKELY LATER THIS\r\nMORNING WHEN VISIBLE PICTURES APPEAR...THE FUTURE TRACK...IRONICALLY\r\n...SEEMS MORE CERTAIN.  ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY ENTRAINED\r\nIN THE WESTERLIES AND MOVE TOWARD THE NE...AS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE\r\nAND PREVIOUS NHC FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRANSITION PROCESS TO EXTRATROPICAL...OR POST-TROPICAL...FOR\r\nISAACS INTENSITY IS HANDLED QUITE DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. THE\r\nGFDL OUTPUT SHOWS...DISSIPATION...IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...BUT IT\r\nALSO INDICATES 50-60 KT WINDS IN AN EXTRATROPICAL HYBRID.  THE\r\nUKMET MODEL INDICATES AN INTENSE STORM THEN.  THE AVN HAS 45 KT\r\nWINDS AT 850 MB ALONG THE FRONT FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM ISAAC.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO 50 KT...WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTAGE REACHED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 36.3N  53.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 38.3N  51.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 40.6N  47.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 42.9N  43.1W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 45.4N  36.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":37,"Date":"2000-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n\r\nISAAC IS STILL MAINTAINING A WARM INNER CORE.  HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS\r\nARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE RINGS OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE\r\nCENTER WEAKEN.  WINDS ARE ADJUSTED TO 75 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nISAAC IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN\r\nUPPER TROUGH AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.  ISAAC SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE AND BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 37.7N  50.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 40.0N  47.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 42.5N  41.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 45.0N  35.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 51.0N  26.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":38,"Date":"2000-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC IS STILL MAINTAINING A WARM INNER CORE BUT THE WINDS ARE\r\nEXPANDING AWAY FROM THE CENTER AS IT BEGINS TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE RINGS OF CONVECTION\r\nSURROUNDING THE CENTER WEAKEN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nISAAC IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN\r\nUPPER TROUGH AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 KNOTS.  ISAAC SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 38.7N  49.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 40.8N  45.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 43.5N  40.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 46.5N  33.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 50.0N  24.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":39,"Date":"2000-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC IS BARELY A HURRICANE AND IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nAND MAINLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.  MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS WRAPPING\r\nINTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 055/27.  ISAAC IS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG\r\nWESTERLIES...AND CONTINUED ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST OR \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CONTINUE AND SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS DRY COOL AIR GRADUALLY OVERTAKES ISAAC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 40.4N  46.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 42.6N  42.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 45.4N  35.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 48.6N  28.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":40,"Date":"2000-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n \r\nISAAC IS NOW TROPICAL STORM AND IS RAPIDLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST AND SOUTH.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 060/26.  ISAAC REMAINS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG\r\nWESTERLIES...AND CONTINUED ACCELERATION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CONTINUE...BUT ONLY SLOW WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC THAT\r\nWILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON A 30/2110Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 41.6N  43.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 43.5N  39.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 46.2N  32.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 49.5N  23.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":41,"Date":"2000-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n\r\nISAAC HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED. ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12\r\nHOURS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ISAAC ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 42.6N  42.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 44.5N  37.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM AST MON SEP 25 2000\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ISAAC HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...SO ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN.  TOPS IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE\r\nWARMING AS THE DIURNAL MINIMUM APPROACHES...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR\r\nA SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT.  STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD\r\nRE-DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  ASIDE FROM ISAAC TO THE NORTHWEST...\r\nTHE OTHER SIGNIFICANT STEERING FEATURE IS A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS RIDGE TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF ISAAC.  THIS WOULD...IF THERE IS NO\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND ISAAC...MOVE THE DEPRESSION\r\nIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL\r\nBE LITTLE OR NO INTERACTION WITH ISAAC...AND THE CURRENT TRENDS IN\r\nMOTION OF BOTH SYSTEMS SUPPORT THIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HR.  \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER A RIDGE ALOFT...WITH FAIR TO GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME KIND\r\nOF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM...\r\nWHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE FORECASTS VERIFY. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH DEVELOPMENT...TAKING THE SYSTEM\r\nTO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...\r\nAS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 11.5N  31.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 11.7N  33.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 12.2N  35.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 12.6N  38.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 13.0N  41.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 13.0N  46.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON SEP 25 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOYCE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n35 IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE CENTER\r\nOF CLOUD SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY COLD...NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE CLOUD\r\nHOLE/EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS.  BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE ALSO IMPROVED...AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY YIELDS A CLOUD\r\nPATTERN INTENSITY CLOSE TO 45 KT.  OUTFLOW IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE\r\nEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/13. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING...AND THE OFFICAL TRACK IS JUST\r\nAN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN\r\nFALLING ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO INDICATE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\nTHE ONLY MODELS THAT DIFFER FROM THIS SCENARIO ARE THE\r\nAVN...GFDL...AND VBAR MODELS...WHICH TRACK JOYCE TO THE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS.  IT IS RARE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO MOVE\r\nSOUTH OF WEST THIS FAR EAST...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE\r\nWILL LIKELY SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS ISAAC MOVES MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JOYCE TO TRACK AT LEAST A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT EFEFCT WILL ANY OUTFLOW FROM ISAAC HAVE \r\nON JOYCE.  THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE\r\nOF ISAAC THAT IS CURRENTLY INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF COLD-\r\nTOPPED DEEP CONVECTION THAT NORMALLY WOULD BE OCCURING BY THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...AS ISAAC PULLS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND THE DISTANCE\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES INCREASES...STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD\r\nDEVELOP UNLESS THE OUTFLOW FROM ISAAC INCREASES THE SHEAR ON JOYCE. \r\nDUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY TAKES JOYCE TO\r\nMINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS...WHICH IS 10 KT\r\nBELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 11.7N  32.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 12.0N  34.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 12.5N  37.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 12.8N  39.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 13.0N  42.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 13.3N  47.9W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n \r\nJOYCE GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF...AT BEST...A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND KGWC...AND 35\r\nKT FROM TAFB.  CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS LIMITED...NOT WELL\r\nORGANIZED...AND NOT VERY COLD.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0416Z FROM THE\r\nNRL TROPICAL CYCLONE WEB PAGE INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED EITHER.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY ONLY SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM. \r\nLONGER-TERM INTENSIFICATION WILL REQUIRE ISAAC GETTING OUT OF THE\r\nWAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS A\r\nSOUTHWARD COMPONENT AT VARYING PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nPERHAPS AS A RESULT OF RIDGING AS ISAAC PULLS AWAY.  GIVEN THE LACK\r\nOF CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT...I AM GOING WITH A RELATIVELY STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBUT STILL ON THE SPEEDY EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 11.7N  33.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 11.8N  35.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 11.9N  38.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 12.0N  40.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 12.2N  42.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 12.5N  47.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JOYCE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH\r\nCURVED BANDING FEATURES BECOMING QUITE PROMINENT.  DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS STILL NOT THAT ABUNDANT...BUT IT IS PRESENTLY ON THE INCREASE. \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS ON THE BASIS OF A T2.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZING\r\nTREND...A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND SUFFICIENTLY WARM\r\nOCEAN WATERS...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.  A\r\nSIMILAR INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SHOWN BY THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE AT ABOUT 275/12.  APPARENTLY A MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT IN BETWEEN JOYCE AND ISAAC AND IS INDUCING THE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.  OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK...WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL SHOWING EVEN\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE DEEP LAYER STEERING...THE U.K. MET OFFICE...AND THE EXPERIMENTAL\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL IS SOMEWHAT FASTER\r\nTO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 11.7N  34.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 11.8N  36.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 11.9N  38.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 12.0N  41.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 12.0N  43.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 12.0N  47.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS STILL LIMITED...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH JOYCE IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.  THERE ARE PLENTY OF\r\nCURVED BANDS...TYPICAL OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM...AND THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD.  T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  CONSEQUENTLY...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45\r\nKNOTS.  DESPITE THE CURRENT UPWARD INTENSITY TREND AND THE APPARENT\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF WARM OCEAN AND LOW SHEAR AHEAD...AT LEAST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ABOUT 77\r\nAND 70 KNOTS ONLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND\r\nMAKES JOYCE A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nA STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nJOYCE IS FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 12\r\nKNOTS. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE SO STRONG THAT SOME OF THE MODELS\r\nHAVE A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE\r\nFARTHER SOUTH OF DUE WEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES...THE MORE\r\nDANGEROUS IT COULD BECOME FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER...MOST\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFDL FORECASTS AT LONGER RANGE...OR\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...INDICATE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST BEFORE REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE ONLY LONG RANGE\r\nMODEL WHICH SUGGESTS A TRACK ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN IS THE UK MODEL\r\nBUT ONLY AS A TROUGH.  WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT FORECASTS BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 11.6N  36.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 11.5N  38.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 11.5N  40.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 11.5N  42.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 11.5N  44.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 11.5N  48.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED NEAR THE SYSTEM\r\nCENTER AND A SMALL CDO HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS. \r\nALSO...A 26/2012Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 15 NM DIAMETER BANDED\r\nEYE FEATURE THAT WAS ABOUT 75 PERCENT CLOSED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND A\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE WEST AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  THE RIDGE BETWEEN JOYCE AND\r\nISAAC TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP\r\nJOYCE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE AVN AND GFDL MODELS WHICH TAKE JOYCE WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND EVEN TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF 10N LATITUDE. \r\nTHIS SEEMS EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET\r\nMODEL...WHICH KEEPS JOYCE MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST.\r\n \r\nJOYCE MAY UNDERGO A SHORT PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING \r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS IF THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE SSMI DATA\r\nPERSISTS THROUGH THE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...UNLIKE HURRICANE ISAAC TO \r\nTHE NORTH...JOYCE HAS A LESS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN WHICH MAY\r\nINHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY\r\nFROM ANY EFFECTS OF ISAAC.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS JOYCE TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 11.8N  36.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 11.9N  38.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.0N  40.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 12.1N  42.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 12.3N  44.3W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N  49.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n \r\nJOYCE IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWING A DEVELOPING EYE SIGNATURE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 55 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE VERY LATEST UW\r\nOBJECTIVE ESTIMATE IS ALSO 65 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT AND JOYCE COULD BE A HURRICANE ALREADY BUT THERE\r\nIS TIME ENOUGH TO WAIT FOR A CONSENSUS OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE.  NOT MUCH INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT LIMITED OUTFLOW BUT JOYCE COULD SURPRISE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 280/12...BUT MIGHT BE EVEN\r\nFASTER.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHINKING OR TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 12.4N  38.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 12.7N  40.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.7N  42.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.7N  44.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 12.8N  47.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.0N  51.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n\r\nJOYCE HAS INTENSIFIED.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL...TIGHTLY-\r\nWOUND CLOUD PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY COLD CDO.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KNOTS AND 77 KNOTS\r\nRESPECTIVELY...SO THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 70-KNOT HURRICANE. \r\nEVEN THOUGH UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT  APPEARS FAVORABLE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE\r\nLINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS WEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...13 KNOTS.  THE\r\nAVN...GFDL AND VICBAR GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SHOWING A WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nMOTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE HAS NOT\r\nMUCH INDICATION OF A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE OBSERVED MOTION THUS\r\nFAR.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...CERTAINLY ONE OF THE MOST\r\nRELIABLE FOR TRACK PREDICTION...DEPICTS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN ISAAC AND JOYCE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN\r\nA MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 12.4N  39.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 12.5N  41.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  44.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 12.5N  46.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 12.5N  48.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 13.0N  52.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nANALYSES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.  JOYCE HAS A SMALL INNER CORE AND SUCH\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES CAN SPIN UP RATHER FAST OR...ALTERNATIVELY...\r\nWEAKEN FAST.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nWATERS ARE WARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nJOYCE CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST.  AS NOTED EARLIER...SEVERAL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE INDICATION OF\r\nTHIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTIONS\r\nOF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nBASED ON GRADIENT WIND ANALYSES USING ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING\r\nUNIT...AMSU...DATA FROM THE CIRA NESDIS RAMM TEAM AT COLORADO STATE\r\nUNIVERSITY...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED\r\nA BIT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 12.6N  40.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.7N  42.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 12.7N  44.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 12.7N  47.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 12.8N  49.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 13.0N  53.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000\r\n \r\nJOYCE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY..WITH COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  A TRMM PASS AT 1742Z SHOWED A PINHOLE EYE UNDER THE OVERCAST. \r\nA LATER SSM/I PASS DID NOT SHOW THE EYE...BUT IT MAY HAVE BEEN TO\r\nSMALL TO BE RESOLVED IN THE COARSER SSM/I DATA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11.  A RIDGE IS BUILDING BETWEEN JOYCE AND\r\nISAAC AS THEY SEPARATE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE JOYCE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE HURRICANE MAY\r\nTURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ACTUALLY WANTS\r\nTO MOVE THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR BEFORE\r\nTURNING WEST-NORTHWEST.  SINCE THERE IS NO SIGN OF SUCH A TURN\r\nYET...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nWITH A WESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nJOYCE REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND AS SUCH IT COULD CHANGE STRENGTH\r\nRATHER RAPIDLY DEPENDING ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT.  WIND\r\nSHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nINDICATE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING\r\nOVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD MOVE WEST AND TRY TO CATCH\r\nUP WITH JOYCE.  SHOULD IT GET CLOSE ENOUGH...THE CURRENT GENERALLY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME HOSTILE.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT NO\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE TAKES JOYCE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS\r\nDURING THE PERIOD.  BASED ON ALL THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nTAKE JOYCE TO 95 KT IN 36 HR AND HOLD IT THERE.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 12.5N  41.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  43.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 12.5N  45.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 12.5N  47.6W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N  50.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N  54.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL EYE NOTED IN AN EARLIER TRMM MICROWAVE PASS IS NO LONGER\r\nVISIBLE...AND THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB.  GIVEN\r\nTHE DETERIORATING MICROWAVE PRESENTATION THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE 72 HOUR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  JOYCE SHOULD TRACK BASICALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS.  LONGER TERM...THE FATE OF JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON HOW\r\nCLOSE AN APPROACH IS MADE BY THE LARGE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  THERE IS AN IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AVN AND\r\nTHE UKMET THIS MORNING.  THE UKMET SOLUTION IS MORE OMINOUS...IN\r\nTHAT IT BOTH KEEPS THE UPPER LOW WITH ITS ATTENDANT SHEAR FARTHER\r\nAWAY FROM JOYCE...AND ULTIMATELY TRACKS THE CYCLONE WELL INTO THE\r\nCARIBBEAN.  THE AVN/MRF SOLUTION BRINGS THE UPPER LOW CLOSE ENOUGH\r\nTO JOYCE TO HINDER STRENGTHENING...AND ALSO SHOWS MORE OF A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN SO THAT THE HURRICANE SKIRTS THE LESSER ANTILLES.  IT\r\nIS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW AT THIS POINT WHICH SCENARIO...IF EITHER...\r\nWILL VERIFY.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY WOULD BE FOR THE UPPER LOW TO\r\nPRODUCE ENOUGH SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THAT A GREATLY WEAKENED SYSTEM\r\nTRACKS INTO THE CARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nA TENTATIVE TASKING HAS BEEN MADE FOR THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET TO FLY\r\nSYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AHEAD OF JOYCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO\r\nHELP RESOLVE THESE QUESTIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 12.5N  42.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 12.5N  44.3W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 12.5N  46.6W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 12.5N  48.9W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 12.7N  51.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 13.5N  55.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR WAS NOT ANTICIPATED...EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND\r\nIT WAS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS\r\nIMPLIES SHEAR.  THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE NONDESCRIPT\r\nBUT THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE EMANATING RADIALLY OUTWARD.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE AREA OF CLOUD COVERAGE IS A LITTLE LARGER THAN 24 HOURS\r\nAGO WITH BANDING FEATURES.  T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SOME... SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 75 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...JOYCE IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OR\r\nLIGHT SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  SHIPS AND GDFL ALSO\r\nCALL FOR INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nAS SEVERAL MODELS INDICATED...MAINLY THE NCEP AVN AND THE\r\nGFDL...JOYCE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS.  BOTH\r\nA STRONG WESTWARD MOVING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nA RIDGE NORTH OF JOYCE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE IN TANDEM TO THE WEST. \r\nTHIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  LONGER RANGE FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE SHOULD PERSIST BUT SOMEWHAT WEAKER\r\n...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK.  \r\n \r\nA NOAA GULFSTREAM JET IS SCHEDULE TO FLY SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE\r\nMISSIONS AHEAD OF JOYCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP TO DETERMINE THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF JOYCE UNTIL SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 11.5N  44.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 11.1N  46.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 11.0N  48.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 11.0N  50.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 11.5N  53.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 13.0N  56.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION AND SOME CURVED BANDS TO THE\r\nSOUTH HAVE DEVELOPED.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE ARC CLOUDS MOVING AWAY\r\nFROM THE SYSTEM WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS NONDESCRIPT.  THIS\r\nIN GENERAL MEANS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN THROUGH THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  JOYCE IS OVER WARM WATER\r\nAND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED BECOME\r\nMORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING LATER ON. SHIPS BRINGS JOYCE TO 97\r\nKNOTS AND THE GFDL LOWERS THE PRESSURE TO NEAR 963 MB BY DAY THREE.\r\n\r\nJOYCE IS MOVING 255/12 WHILE IS TRAPPED BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST AND MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nA NOAA GULFSTREAM JET IS SCHEDULE TO FLY SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE\r\nMISSIONS AHEAD OF JOYCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP TO DETERMINE THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF JOYCE UNTIL SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 11.1N  45.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 10.5N  47.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 10.5N  50.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 10.5N  52.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 11.0N  54.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 13.0N  58.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM AST THU SEP 28 2000\r\n \r\nJOYCE WENT THROUGH A VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST EARLIER THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE\r\nTOPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN 77 KT...SO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE BURST MADE THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 260/12.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF JOYCE...WHILE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW DEVELOPING WELL\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST.  LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH WILL PERSIST TO SOME EXTENT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE\r\nTHE COLD LOW MOVES WESTWARD.  FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO\r\nTHESE FEATURES BY TAKING JOYCE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR 12-24 HR...THEN\r\nTURNING IT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.  SINCE A NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION TAKES JOYCE TOWARD A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO\r\nFORM NORTH OF PUERTO RICO...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHY THE MODELS TAKE THE\r\nSTORM SO FAR NORTH.  PERHAPS SUBSIDENCE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCOLD LOW WILL INCREASE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF JOYCE AND THUS\r\nTURN IT NORTHWARD...BUT THE COLD LOW CIRCULATION DOES NOT YET EXTEND\r\nFAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO DO THIS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINLY...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UKMET.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...\r\nAVN...LBAR...AND VICBAR ARE ALL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST.  THE NHC98...NHC98UK...BAMM...AND BAMD ARE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nJOYCE SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...WITH SOME\r\nEVIDENCE OF AN OUTFLOW JET TO THE EAST.  DESPITE THIS...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED FOR ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.  LARGE\r\nSCALE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS NEAR\r\nJOYCE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET LOOKING GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND\r\nTHE AVN SOMEWHAT LESS SO.  THE PERSISTENT COLD TOPS CERTAINLY SHOW\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nSTRONGER SHIPS AND THE WEAKER GFDL.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOYCE COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF IT EVER DEVELOPS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET IS SCHEDULE TO FLY SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE\r\nMISSIONS AHEAD OF JOYCE OVER THE WEEKEND TO HELP TO DETERMINE THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.  A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF JOYCE UNTIL SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 11.0N  47.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 10.7N  48.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 10.7N  51.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 10.9N  53.3W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 11.5N  55.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N  59.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joyce","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED CENTER...A\r\nRECENT SSMI PASS SHOWS A SMALL EYE TYPE FEATURE.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/10 COMPARED TO 260/10 SIX\r\nHOURS AGO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IN 72 HOURS.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY THIS\r\nIS SO EXCEPT THAT THE 00Z AVIATION RUN SHOWS A VERY WEAK LITTLE\r\nTROUGH AT 500 MB NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF JOYCE IN 72 HOURS.  IN ANY\r\nCASE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION UNTIL 72 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE 72\r\nHOUR FORECAST POSITION SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE UKMET WHICH HAS THE\r\nCENTER JUST WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND\r\nTHE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK COULD COMPLETELY MISS\r\nTHE ISLANDS.  IN ANY CASE IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL ABOUT THIS.\r\n\r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOOKED PRETTY CRUMMY\r\nOVERNIGHT...BUT THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CDO POSSIBLY\r\nREDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  OTHERWISE I MIGHT HAVE DECREASED THE\r\nCURRENT 75 KNOT WIND SPEED A LITTLE.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BRINGS THE WINDS TO 98 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS. \r\nSO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 10.6N  47.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 10.3N  49.3W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 10.3N  51.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 10.8N  53.9W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 11.4N  56.2W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 14.2N  60.0W    95 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n \r\nHERE WE HAVE YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OUR LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE.  MORNING VISUAL IMAGES REVEAL AN\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF A SMALL AND RAGGED-LOOKING\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DECOUPLED IN\r\nTHE VERTICAL.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY SUCH A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT\r\nEXISTS SINCE WATER VAPOR ANIMATION DOES NOT SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ACROSS THE CENTER OF JOYCE.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO\r\nDISORGANIZED IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nQUESTION THEN IS...WILL JOYCE RE-STRENGTHEN?  OUR BEST OBJECTIVE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nSHIPS...SAYS YES.  BECAUSE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT THE\r\nENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM STILL APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN EVENTUAL RE-INTENSIFICATION OF JOYCE\r\nBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR.\r\n \r\nTHE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION APPEARS TO BE GONE....INITIAL\r\nHEADING IS NOW 270/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS ARE SPREAD\r\nBETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWEST AND SLOWER MOTION SHOWN BY THE\r\nGFDL...KEEPING JOYCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AT 72 HOURS...TO\r\nTHE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM INTO THE EXTREME\r\nEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF JOYCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND BECAUSE OF THE U.K.\r\nMET SOLUTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FAVORS THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 10.5N  49.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 10.5N  50.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 11.0N  53.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 11.5N  55.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N  57.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N  60.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nDISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  ONE POSSIBLE\r\nEXPLANATION FOR THE DETERIORATION OF JOYCE COULD BE STRONG LOW- TO\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES WHICH IS DECOUPLING THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THIS IS SUGGESTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE CLOUD MOTION\r\nVECTORS OVER THE AREA.  AS NOTED EARLIER...JOYCE IS MOVING INTO AN\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FROM THE STANDPOINT OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS INFERRED FROM WATER VAPOR ANIMATION.  ANALYSES\r\nFROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ALSO SHOW WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER...SO FAR JOYCE IS\r\nNOT RECOVERING FROM ITS EARLIER DISORGANIZATION.  IN VIEW OF THE\r\nLATTER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER ON...JOYCE IS FORECAST\r\nTO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS.  HOWEVER THAT PREDICTION SHOULD BE\r\nVIEWED AS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...270/14.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP LAYER MEAN\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST\r\nAVN MODEL RUN.  IN A LIMITED SAMPLE...THAT MODEL HAS BEEN AN\r\nOUTSTANDING PERFORMER FOR JOYCE THUS FAR.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nBARBADOS SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 10.5N  51.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 10.7N  52.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 11.5N  55.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 12.5N  57.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N  59.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N  62.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 45 TO 50 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.  THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD TO THE NORTH AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13.  THERE HAVE BEEN SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND DIRECTION THE PAST 12 HOURS...\r\nBUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN WESTWARD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\n30/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS CAUSED JOYCE TO WEAKEN AND TRACK \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST THE PAST 2 DAYS MAY BE LETTING UP.  THERE REMAINS\r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODEL FORECASTS WITH NOGPAPS BEING\r\nTHE FARTHEST NORTH NEAR ANTIGUA AND CLIPER BEING THE FARTHEST WEST\r\nAND SOUTH NEAR COLOMBIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL...AVN...AND GUNS MODELS...AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE UKMET MODEL WHICH\r\nTAKES JOYCE FASTER AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  AS LONG AS JOYCE\r\nREMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...LITTLE IF ANY INTENSIFICATION\r\nSHOULD OCCUR.  HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAS THE DEEP MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOYCE WEAKENS AND\r\nPULLS AWAY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  JOYCE HAS A VERY DEEP AND\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED VERTICAL CIRCULATION...GIVEN THAT JOYCE HAS SURVIVED\r\nSOME VERY HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS THE PAST 2 DAYS.  AS A\r\nRESULT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE INTENSITY COULD OCCUR\r\nQUICKLY ONCE THE SHEAR LETS UP ON THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS\r\nJOYCE TO 82 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSINCE JOYCE IS FORECAST TO BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST SOUTHEAST\r\nOF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE\r\nISSUED FOR BARBADOS BY SATURDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 10.5N  53.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 10.8N  54.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 11.7N  57.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 12.8N  59.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 13.8N  61.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 16.0N  65.0W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE APPEARS TO BE MAKING A SLIGHT COMEBACK IN\r\nINTENSITY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...SINCE JOYCE IS STILL IN A SHEAR APTTERN AND\r\nTHERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER RELATIVE TO\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD DOWN TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12. JOYCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK\r\nJUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST...BUT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE\r\nLETTING UP BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THERE IS MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL FORECASTS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS\r\nJOYCE TRACKING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE SHEAR LETTING UP AROUND 55W\r\nLONGITUDE.  STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nAND THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN BRINGS JOYCE UP TO 93 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 10.3N  53.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 10.4N  55.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 11.2N  57.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 12.2N  59.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N  62.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 15.5N  67.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n\r\nTHIS MORNINGS VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW THAT JOYCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nORGANIZATION FROM 24 HOURS AGO.  THE STORM REMAINS QUITE\r\nDISORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SHEARING...WHICH IS APPARENTLY BEING\r\nPRODUCED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES RATHER THAN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES...HAS NOT ABATED SO FAR.   CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD TO 35 KNOTS...AND SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LATER ON...SOME INTENSIFICATION\r\nMAY OCCUR...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGRESSIVE AS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  THAT MODEL HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON THE STRENGTHENING OF\r\nJOYCE...BUT OBVIOUSLY THIS HAS NOT VERIFIED SO FAR.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...275/16.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAINTAINS A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE.   \r\n\r\nSINCE THE STORM IS PREDICTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nWINDWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED\r\nFOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 10.4N  56.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 10.5N  58.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 11.3N  61.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 12.0N  64.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 13.0N  66.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  70.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n\r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THERE\r\nIS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  OVERALL THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT\r\nMARGINAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE HAVE\r\nSEEN A NUMBER OF CASES OF RELATIVELY INSIGNIFICANT-LOOKING SYSTEMS\r\nIN WHICH RATHER STRONG WINDS WERE FOUND.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE JOYCE LATE TONIGHT TO GIVE A MORE\r\nPRECISE MEASUREMENT OF INTENSITY.  BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES\r\nFROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW WEAK SHEAR IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF JOYCE.  HOWEVER AS BEFORE...BECAUSE THE CURRENT STATE OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY HEALTHY...NOT MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nPREDICTED UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...THERE IS MORE COUPLING\r\nWITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS AND THIS MAY CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE\r\nEFFECTIVE STEERING FLOW.  SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS SLOWED FROM 16-18\r\nKNOTS EARLIER TODAY TO ABOUT 14 KNOTS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME AS BEFORE BUT SLIGHTLY DELAYS THE TIMING OF JOYCES PASSAGE\r\nOVER THE WINDWARDS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nREMAINING NORTH OF JOYCE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE...TAKING JOYCE INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL CARIBBEAN AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL RUN.  THE U.K. MET SHOWS A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY BUT A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 10.5N  57.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 11.0N  59.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 11.8N  62.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 12.5N  65.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 13.5N  67.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 15.0N  72.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nA FEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM EARLIER...BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKENED.  SOME NEW BANDING FEATURES\r\nMAY BE TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. \r\nHOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION LOOKING SOMEWHAT RAGGED.  A RECON AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL BE OUT TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICNAT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE NEW MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP JOYCE ON\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\n\r\nALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS AGREE ON JOYCE STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT \r\n18 TO 24 HOURS.  THE PROBLEM HAS BEEN THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nTHAT STILL HAS NOT LET UP.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID-\r\nLEVEL NORTH AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW LAYER.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST 01/00Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS MORE\r\nEASTERLY... WHICH SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE SHEAR ONCE JOYCE REACHES\r\nTHE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE SUNDAY.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nTAKES JOYCE UP TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nLOWER DUE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE\r\nEAST AT 30 KT BY 48 HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 10.8N  58.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 11.3N  60.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 11.9N  62.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 12.7N  65.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N  68.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  72.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH SOME BANDS TO THE EAST. AIR\r\nFORCE RECON AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FINDING THE BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THEY MADE A SECOND PASS THROUGH THE EAST\r\nSIDE AND FOUND AT LEAST 34 KT AT 1500 FT.  BASED ON THE RECON WIND\r\nREPORT AND INCREASE IN CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE NEW MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST\r\nTRACKS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD\r\nKEEP JOYCE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  AFTER 48 HOURS...SOME\r\nOF THE MODELS INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THIS SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA FROM HURRICANE KEITH.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS.  THE PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nAS INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS AN UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF JOYCE THAT HAS BEEN AIDING THE OUTFLOW TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE WITH JOYCE...WHICH MAY\r\nALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY ONCE JOYCE GETS INTO THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.  THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW\r\nFROM KEITH WILL AFFECT JOYCE.  MOST OF THE MODELS GRADUALLY TURN THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 36 HOURS...\r\nWHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP THE STRONG SHEAR OFF OF JOYCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 11.0N  60.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 11.5N  62.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 12.4N  65.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 13.3N  67.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 14.0N  69.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  74.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nJOYCE HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY.  THERE ARE BANDING FEATURES...\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  SURFACE DATA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE MOVED\r\nVERY NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF TOBAGO.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n35 KNOTS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. IF JOYCE\r\nSURVIVES...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST PRIMARILY BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN JOYCE REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF\r\nJOYCE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  IN FACT...TRACK MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. \r\nIF JOYCE SURVIVES ITS PATH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ANOTHER\r\nPOTENTIALLY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE IN THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE JOYCE LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 11.7N  61.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 12.3N  63.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.0N  66.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N  68.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  71.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N  77.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n \r\nJOYCE IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE\r\nREASONS ARE THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT GOOD AS THIS\r\nMORNING AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DECREASED...ALTHOUGH SOME\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE REFORMING.  THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A\r\nWELL DEFINED AND LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...IN FACT... BETTER \r\nESTABLISHED THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB ONLY AND THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE FEW REPORTS FROM THE PLANE\r\nOF 40 KNOT WINDS ARE WELL TO THE EAST IN RAINBANDS AND ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH REPORTS FROM BARBADOS OF TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS\r\nFOR SEVERAL HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND I WOULD DARE TO SAY THAT IT IS\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE IS\r\nABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH THE OLD TIMERS CALL THE HURRICANE\r\nGRAVEYARD.  HISTORICALLY...WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS... TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES DO NOT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  \r\nTHEREFORE...JOYCE IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHEN THE DEPRESSION\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...IF IT SURVIVES.  MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IMMEDIATELY RESTRENGTHEN JOYCE BUT THAT IT IS NOT\r\nLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF\r\nJOYCE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 11.9N  62.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 12.4N  64.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.0N  67.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.0N  70.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  73.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  79.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n \r\nLATEST QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOW ONLY 20 TO 25 KNOTS WINDS AND SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOW BE A TROPICAL WAVE. TAFB AND AIR FORCE\r\nGLOBAL ARE STILL CLASSIFYING JOYCE AS A 45 KNOT SYSTEM AND SAB AS A\r\n30 KNOT SYSTEM.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS ARE IN THE 15\r\nTO 20 KNOT RANGE.  FOR THIS PACKAGE I AM KEEPING JOYCE AT 30 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED EAST OF THE\r\nBROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW HAS NOT CHANGED IN\r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS AND APPEARS TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE AREA\r\nOF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES... HISTORICALLY DO NOT\r\nDEVELOP. THEREFORE...JOYCE IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHEN THE DEPRESSION\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\n  \r\nA WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE.  INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n285/13.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE\r\nWESTNORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS... EXCEPT FOR THE AVIATION\r\nMODEL...WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK THAT BRINGS\r\nTHE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA IN 72 HOURS.  HPC FEELS THAT THIS\r\nMAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE KEITH IN THE MODEL.  AT\r\nTHIS TIME WE WILL IGNORE THIS PARTICULAR TRACK SOLUTION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 12.1N  64.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 12.7N  66.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.4N  68.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.2N  71.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.9N  73.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  79.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n \r\nAN ECLIPSE PERIOD FOR GOES-8 SATELLITE FROM 0300 TO 0630 UTC HAS\r\nMADE IT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER FOR JOYCE. \r\nALSO...SURFACE OBS ARE SPARSE AND THERE IS NO RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE APPROXIMATELY ONE DEGREE APART ON A CENTER FIX\r\nBASED UPON THE 0645 UTC PICTURE...WITH AIR FORCE GLOBAL IN BETWEEN. \r\nALL POSITIONS ARE BELOW 12 DEGREES NORTH.  THEREFORE...I AM LEANING\r\nHEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.  \r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER...FURTHER CONFUSING THE ISSUE.  THE OUTFLOW STILL\r\nAPPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE IS NOW MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE AREA OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE TROPICAL CYCLONES...\r\nHISTORICALLY DO NOT DEVELOP. THEREFORE...JOYCE IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHEN\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE JOYCE LATER ON THIS\r\nMORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE RECON DATA PLUS VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES LATER THIS MORNING\r\nMAY FORCE A REPOSITIONING FOR THE 12 UTC POSITION.\r\n \r\nA WELL ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF JOYCE.  INITIAL MOTION\r\nREMAINS AT 285/13.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD\r\nTHE WESTNORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS INCLUDING THE AVIATION MODEL. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 12.4N  65.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.0N  67.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.7N  69.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  72.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.2N  75.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 17.0N  80.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT JOYCES LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY AN OPEN WAVE.  THIS SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nMONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 12.0N  67.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM AND\r\nCONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION WITH 32-KNOT WINDS WITH A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SOME CURVED BANDS BUT\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED YET.  A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS\r\nINDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  A SLOW NORTHWEST DRIFT IS\r\nEXPECTED THEREAFTER.  LATEST AVN AND UK MODEL RUNS BASICALLY KEEP\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...ALL\r\nINTEREST IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM.  TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 16.1N  82.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N  83.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.7N  83.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 17.0N  83.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N  84.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2000\r\n \r\nAS OFTEN OCCURS WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS STAGE OF\r\nDEVELOPMENT... CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIFTEEN HAS DECREASED DURING THE EVENING.  GIVEN THIS AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 25 KT.  IT IS LIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL\r\nINCREASE AFTER 06Z AS THE CYCLONE STARTS INTO THE NEXT DIURNAL\r\nMAXIMUM.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SATELLITE FIXES IS LARGER THAN ANY\r\nLIKELY MOTION OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS STATIONARY.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ISOLATED FROM ANY\r\nMAJOR STEERING INFLUENCES...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nWILL NOT CHANGE IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.  AFTER 36 HR OR SO...A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL START FORMING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S....AND THIS MAY CHANGE THE STEERING FLOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME\r\nNORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE\r\nGFDL WHICH LOOPS THE CYCLONE INTO HONDURAS...CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTH\r\nTO NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS...BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nCIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGESTS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SHOULD PERSIST\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING\r\nTHAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NO WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...ALL\r\nINTEREST IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM.  TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 16.2N  83.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N  83.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.9N  83.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 17.2N  83.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.5N  84.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N  85.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n\r\nTHE LAST GEOSTATIONARY IMAGE WAS A GOES10 06Z BUT THERE WAS 0516Z\r\nTRMM PASS WHICH SHOWS A FAIRLY GOOD LOW CLOOUD CENTER WHICH HAS\r\nMOVED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WHOOPS...AN 0815Z GOES8\r\nJUST CAME IN AND ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN POSITION.  THE 00Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IN COL REGION WITH A RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND ANOTHER\r\nWEAKER RIDGE TO THE EAST.  THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS THE CENTER IN THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS AND THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE CENTER JUST\r\nSOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA AND BEGINNING A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION.  THE\r\nGFDL MODEL IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUN WHICH SHOWED\r\nLITTLE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO MODELS AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS SINCE THE TRMM PASS LOOKS\r\nPRETTY GOOD AND SAB GAVE A 35 KNOT DVORAK ESTIMATE.  THE 00Z GFDL\r\nMODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 92 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND THERE WAS NO\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE AVAILABLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO 65 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AS DID THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 16.2N  83.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 16.6N  83.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 17.2N  83.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.8N  83.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.5N  84.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  85.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE DEPRESSION\r\nCONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES\r\nBUT LACKS AN INNER CORE AT THIS TIME.  ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES\r\nCONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE FOR STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT...SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS. \r\nFURTHERMORE...GFDL LONG RANGE RUNS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A POWERFUL\r\nHURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS IT CROSSES WESTERN CUBA.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN EVEN FOR 12\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nONLY.  A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA TO DETERMINE THE\r\nINTENSITY LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOW\r\nTRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS.  GUIDANCE SHOWS TRACKS IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THEY VARY ALL\r\nTHE WAY FROM YUCATAN TO WESTERN CUBA BUT IN SUMMARY...IT PROBABLY\r\nMEANS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHIS LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nFROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA.  NORMALLY...THIS\r\nPATTERN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nPREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 17.2N  84.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N  84.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N  84.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N  85.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  85.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N  85.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIFTEEN REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THIS IS BASED ON REPORTS\r\nOF 53-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOME ORGANIZED WITH GOOD BANDING FEATURES TO THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW\r\nIS FAIR.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS.  EVERY AVAILABLE GUIDANCE\r\nAS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL PARAMETERS...WARM SST AND LOW SHEAR...\r\nSUGGESTS STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KEITH TO 75\r\nKNOTS BY 72 HOURS...SHY OF SHIPS MODEL WHICH INCREASE THE WINDS TO\r\n87 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE SO BOTH LOCATION AND INITIAL\r\nMOTION ARE UNCERTAIN AND THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TONIGHT.  IN\r\nGENERAL...KEITH HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AND MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT KEITH WILL STILL BE\r\nIN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 72 HOURS...PRIMARILY THE RELIABLE\r\nGFDL AND AVN MODELS.  THE UK MODEL IS A LITTLE FASTER AND MOVES THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND INTO THE SOUTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A SLOW TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  KEITH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO NORTHEASTERN\r\nYUCATAN IN 36 HOURS TO WARRANT A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHIS AREA AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHIS LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nFROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA.  NORMALLY...THIS\r\nPATTERN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nPREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF KEITH AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 17.6N  85.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 17.9N  85.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 18.4N  85.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N  85.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N  85.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  86.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A STRONG\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ROUGHLY THREE-FOURTHS OF THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL ARRIVE AT KEITH BETWEEN 05Z-06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/4.  KEITH REMAINS CUT\r\nOFF FROM STRONG STEERING INFLUENCES AT THE MOMENT.  A SURFACE RIDGE\r\nIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE PRESSURES ARE LOWER OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WITH AN ASSOCIATED NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW FORMING JUST\r\nSOUTHEAST OF MIAMI.  MOST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nUKMET...RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY CLUSTERING BY CONTINUING THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS.  THE\r\nNOGAPS TAKES KEITH WESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS\r\nPOSSIBLE IF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH BY-PASSES THE STORM.  THE GFDN\r\nMEANDERS IT WESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE.  THE LBAR AND VICBAR TAKE KEITH\r\nMORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WITH VICBAR SHOWING\r\nLANDFALL NEAR TAMPA IN 72 HR.  THESE POSITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE WEST\r\nOF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH CASTS DOUBT ON IF THEY WOULD\r\nVERIFY AND HOW MUCH OF KEITH WOULD REMAIN IF THEY DID.  THE GFDL IS\r\nAN EXTREME OUTLIER...FORECASTING A LOOP AND THEN MOVING KEITH\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN IF KEITH\r\nAND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH INTERACT...THE GFDL HAS LACKED\r\nRUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.  SINCE THERE ARE NO CURRENT SIGNS THAT THE\r\nOUTLIERS ARE COMING TRUE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n\r\nKEITH SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW...AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN IT\r\nAND YUCATAN HAS PROBABLY HELPED IT MORE THAN HURT IT.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN\r\nOVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THROUGH 72 HR...AND KEITH SHOULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS LONG AS IT REMAINS UNDER THAT FEATURE.  THE GFDU\r\nBRINGS KEITH TO OVER 100 KT BY 72 HR AND SHIPS BRINGS IT TO 89 KT. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE IN CASE\r\nKEITH MOVES OVER YUCATAN...OR MORE QUICKLY INTO A LESS FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHIS LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nFROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA.  NORMALLY...THIS\r\nPATTERN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nPREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL\r\nINTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF KEITH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 17.9N  85.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.3N  85.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.9N  85.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.6N  86.1W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N  86.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 22.0N  87.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND A RECENT\r\nRECON FLIGHT FOUND 850 MB WINDS OF 67 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\nAND A PRESSURE OF 985 MB.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...JUST BELOW MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\nOUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6 BASED ON RECENT RECON FIXES. \r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY AT THIS POINT IN TIME IF THIS IS A TRUE\r\nMOTION VECTOR OR MAINLY DUE TO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. \r\nMOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES KEITH NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD IN\r\nABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS WHICH TAKES KEITH WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE STEERING CURRENTS APPEAR TO BE WEAK BASED ON 30/00Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS PINCHED OFF TO THE WEST AND DROPPED SOUTH TO\r\nBELIZE OVERNIGHT. THIS SMALL LOW MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WESTWARD\r\nJOG THAT KEITH HAS MADE. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THIS\r\nMOTION LAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND TAKES KEITH NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST\r\nPORTION OF THE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...AVN...AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...\r\nA CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF ONE DVORAK T-\r\nNUMBER PER DAY UNTIL EXPECTED LANDFALL OCCURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHIS LARGE SYSTEM IS BRINGING MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nFROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH MAY CAUSE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND PREVENTIVE ACTIONS SHOULD\r\nBE TAKEN.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL\r\nINTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF KEITH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 18.1N  86.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 18.7N  86.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 20.4N  87.2W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 21.5N  87.5W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.5N  87.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KEITH IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH\r\nAN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND BANDING FEATURES.  IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nDEVELOPING AN EYE WHILE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT HURRICANE STATUS AT THIS\r\nTIME. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF KEITH IN\r\nA FEW HOURS.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. \r\n\r\nKEITH HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING WESTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINCLUDING GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND ITS\r\nDERIVED GFDL WHICH TAKES KEITH WESTWARD...SUGGEST THAT KEITH SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. ON THIS\r\nTRACK...KEITH SHOULD CROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EMERGE\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nHOWEVER...THE MEMORY OF HURRICANE MITCH IS STILL VIVID WHEN ALL\r\nMODELS TOOK THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THE HURRICANE MOVED SOUTH\r\nAND SOUTHWEST NOT FAR FROM THIS AREA.  \r\n\r\nBELIZE SHOULD BE READY TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO\r\nHURRICANE WARNING IF THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 18.0N  86.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.9N  87.1W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N  87.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 20.8N  87.8W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 21.5N  88.0W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 22.5N  88.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH IS BECOMING A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE.  DATA FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT KEITH IS STRENGTHENING. THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 970 MB...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB\r\nREACHED 98 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS...\r\nOBJECTIVES AND SUBJECTIVE ARE INCREASING.  ALTHOUGH 98 KNOTS AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL CORRESPOND TO 80 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE....THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 85 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nHAS OCCURRED SINCE THE PLANE SAMPLED THE AREA OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND\r\nAS SUGGESTED BY OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS OVER A TREMENDOUS RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER OR LARGE\r\nHEAT CONTENT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SEEM IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nAT THIS TIME.  THE EFFECT OF LAND IS THE ONLY APPARENT INHIBITOR\r\nFACTOR. IN ADDITION...EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES\r\nKEITH. THEREFORE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALTHOUGH MANY\r\nTIMES...INTENSITY FORECAST TURN OUT TO BE WRONG ONE WAY OR THE\r\nOTHER.\r\n \r\nKEITH HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE... AND SO FAR...THIS HAS BEEN AN\r\nOUTSTANDING JOB DONE BY THE GFDL AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL. IN\r\nFACT...THE GFDL SUGGESTED A SMALL LOOP AND THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO\r\nBE DOING SO AT THIS TIME.  TRACK GUIDANCE INCLUDING GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND ITS DERIVED GFDL WHICH TAKES KEITH\r\nWESTWARD...SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF YUCATAN OR\r\nTHE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nLATEST LONG RANGE GFDL MODEL RUN MAKES KEITH AN EVEN STRONGER\r\nHURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE VESSEL C6YC JUST WEST OF THE EYE OF KEITH REPORTED NORTHWEST\r\nWINDS OF 60 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 18.0N  86.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.4N  87.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  87.2W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 20.3N  87.4W   105 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  87.5W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  88.0W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 270/02.  THE GUIDANCE IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM SIX HOURS\r\nAGO WITH THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWING KEITH IN A COL REGION BETWEEN\r\nANTICYLONES TO THE WEST AND EAST AND A WEAK TROUGH JUST NORTH AT 500\r\nMB.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODEL MOVE KEITH MOSTLY NORTHWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...THE UKMET IS A LITTLE FURTHER WEST\r\nOVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS BELIZE AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY MOVING KEITH ACROSS THE EASTERN YUCATAN...EXCEPT THAT THE\r\nHEADING IS A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT HEADING\r\nTHAT KEITH TAKES...HURRICANE WINDS AND STORM SURGE SHOULD SHORTLY\r\nAFFECT MUCH OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AND IF THE WESTWARD\r\nDRIFT CONTINUES FOR MUCH LONGER...NORTHERN BELIZE COULD ALSO\r\nEXPERIENCE HURRICANE WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON FIX AT 21Z GAVE 966 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE MAX\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB WAS 101 KNOTS.  THIS IS A DROP OF 11 MB\r\nIN 3 HOURS.  A DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS TO 120 KNOTS NEAR 900 MB\r\nDECREASING TO 87 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  SINCE THEN SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO THE 100 TO 115 KNOT RANGE.\r\nBASED ON THE ABOVE...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS FOR\r\nTHE 03Z ADVISORY AND FORECAST TO 110 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS.  THE\r\nSTRENGHTENING IS MOST IMPRESSIVE CONSIDERING THAT SOME 25 PERCENT OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND.  SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nTHE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 24 TO 48\r\nHOURS...SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nSTRENGTHENING AGAIN AT 72 HOURS WHEN THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nWELL AWAY FROM LAND IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 18.1N  87.1W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.3N  87.4W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N  87.5W    90 KTS...NEAR LAND\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  87.6W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  87.7W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.0N  88.0W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n\r\nKEITH HAS A SPECTACULAR APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  AIR FORCE RECON FOUND A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND...FROM A GPS DROPWINDSONDE...\r\nA MEAN WIND OF 140 KNOTS OVER THE LOWEST 150 METERS IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE EYEWALL.  THIS REDUCES TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED NEAR\r\n115 KNOTS.  KEITH IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR TODAY IF THE INNER CORE REMAINS OVER\r\nWATER.  HOWEVER SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED...DUE\r\nTO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WHICH ARE COMMON IN INTENSE\r\nHURRICANES.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER\r\nYUCATAN.  ASSUMING THE CENTER REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nRESTRENGTHENING MAY BE LIMITED BY INCREASED SHEAR AND/OR DRIER AIR.\r\n\r\nRECON FIXES SHOW A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION...SO KEITH REMAINS IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENT AT THIS TIME.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM IN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC COL BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST GULF REGION AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nDOMINANT ONE IN A FEW DAYS TIME...AND PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION WHICH WOULD MOVE KEITH OVER EASTERN YUCATAN AND EVENTUALLY\r\nINTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE MOSTLY\r\nSPREAD FROM A NORTHWARD TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING\r\nA SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BRINGING\r\nKEITH INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS\r\nALSO SIMILAR TO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE EXPERIMENTAL FLORIDA STATE\r\nUNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n\r\nONE SHOULD RECALL THAT 48- AND 72-HR FORECAST POSITIONS ARE SUBJECT\r\nTO ERRORS OF A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 17.9N  87.3W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N  87.3W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.7N  87.3W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N  87.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N  88.0W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 24.0N  89.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO NEW RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE THE REPORT OF 942 MB\r\nAT 0734Z AND A DROPSONDE-BASED PEAK WIND ESTIMATE OF 115 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 127\r\nKT...THE RAW OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN A BIT AS THE COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE ERODED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT.  ANOTHER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AROUND 18Z.\r\n\r\nSMOOTHING OUT THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK GIVES 275/2 FOR AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION.  KEITH REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT...IN A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC COL BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF\r\nAND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE EASTERN RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD AS THE LOW OFFSHORE THE U.S.\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST MOVES OUT.  THIS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THE\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND KEITH AND PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THAT WOULD MOVE KEITH OVER THE YUCATAN AND EVENTUALLY\r\nINTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.  OF\r\nCONCERN ARE THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH\r\nBRING KEITH VERY CLOSE TO THE LOUISIANA COAST IN 72 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM RECENT GFDL RUNS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THIS MODEL DOES NOT CURRENTLY HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE STORM. \r\nTHE AVN...ON WHICH THE GFDL IS BASED HAS THE CENTER OF KEITH\r\nAVOIDING THE YUCATAN ENTIRELY...BUT TIME IS RUNNING OUT ON THIS\r\nFORECAST AS THE WESTERN EYEWALL IS ONSHORE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 18.1N  87.6W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.2N  87.8W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.6N  88.0W   105 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N  88.4W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N  89.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  90.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH IS WEAKENING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF EFFECTS.  RECON REPORTS\r\nTHAT THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 950 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 109 KT.  WITH A PORTION OF THE EYEWALL OVER LAND\r\nTODAY...THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT KEITH IS EXPERIENCING SOME UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR FROM THE\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS EAST...AND THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nBEING RESTRICTED AS WELL.  A RECENT DROPSONDE REPORTED A LOW-LEVEL\r\nLAYER-MEAN WIND OF 119 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT\r\n100 KT.  WITH A RECENT REPORT FROM AMBERGRIS CAY OF 120 MPH...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 110 KT AT THIS TIME.  KEITH\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS MORE OF ITS CIRCULATION EDGES ONSHORE. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN\r\nTHE GULF COULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND SOME\r\nREINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF WOBBLE TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLIER TODAY...KEITH HAS\r\nRETURNED TO A GENERAL MOTION OF 270/2.  LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THE UKMET AND AVN SUGGEST THAT A MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BUILD WESTWARD AND INCREASE\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE.  THE UKMET BUILDS THIS\r\nRIDGE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE AVN AND AS A RESULT ITS TRACK IS FARTHER\r\nTO THE WEST THAN THE AVN.  THE NEW GFDL IS NOT AS FAST AS ITS\r\nPREDECESSOR AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION...DEVASTATING AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAY\r\nOCCUR NEAR THE PATH OF KEITH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 17.9N  87.9W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N  88.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.6N  88.3W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 20.3N  88.6W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N  89.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  91.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE\r\nLATEST TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM SIX HOURS\r\nAGO AND CONTINUE TO SHOW A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE RESULT OF A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM\r\nTHE ATLANTIC AS SHOWN IN THE 18Z AVIATION 500 MB FIELDS.  THE GFDL\r\nAND AVIATION MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE A LITTLE EASTWARD BEFORE\r\nTURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AND THE AVIATION MODEL KEEPS\r\nTHE CENTER OVER WATER AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE\r\nOTHER MODELS MOVE THE CENTER ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND\r\nINTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOVING THE CENTER SLOWLY ACROSS\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS 958 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...UP 16 MB\r\nIN 18 HOURS.  THERE IS NO LONGER AN EYE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nBUT THE RECON MISSION REPORTED A CLOSED CIRCULAR EYEWALL AS RECENTLY\r\nAS 23Z ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 133 KNOTS A\r\nFEW MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A DROPSONDE MEASURED WINDS\r\nOF 95 KNOTS NEAR THE SURFACE.  EARLIER AT 21Z...A HAM RADIO REPORT\r\nOF 125+ MPH WAS RECEIVED FROM SAN PEDRO ON AMBERGRIS CAY BELIZE.\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 100 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AS MUCH OR ALL OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND.  KEITH IS FORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH AT 72 HOURS AFTER IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 17.9N  87.9W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N  87.9W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N  88.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N  88.6W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 22.0N  89.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 26.0N  92.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KEITH HAS DRIFTED SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT\r\nLATEST RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT KEITH MAY HAVE BECOME STATIONARY...\r\nAGAIN.  RECON FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 975 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 85 KT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY OR A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. \r\nTHE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN TAKING KEITH SLOWLY NORTH OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  OF COURSE...THE\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THAT TREND FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS AND IT\r\nSTILL HAS NOT OCCURRED.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT AND\r\nTHE MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST AND FLORIDA IS\r\nBEGINNING TO WEAKEN AND SHEAR OUT AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. \r\nTHAT MEANS THAT KEITH COULD EASILY REMAIN STATIONARY FOR ANOTHER 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.  OBVIOUSLY...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF\r\nKEITH...IF AND WHEN THE SYSTEM CENTER FINALLY MOVES INLAND OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 17.6N  87.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N  87.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N  88.4W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.5N  89.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 25.5N  91.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN.  LAST RECON REPORTED THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 979 MB AND THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND WAS 68 KT.  THERE HAVE BEEN RECENT HAM RADIO REPORTS OF 80 MPH\r\nSO THE WINDS WILL BE HELD A LITTLE ABOVE WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT.  KEITH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT\r\nREMAINS PARTIALLY OVER WATER.  OBVIOUSLY THE DECAY WILL BE MUCH\r\nFASTER SHOULD KEITH MOVE INLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL STATIONARY.  THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD\r\nDRIFT HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC HAS NOT BUILT WEST AS FAR AS ANTICIPATED.  THERE IS AN AREA\r\nOF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE\r\nNORTHERN CARIBBEAN THAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE MINIMAL STEERING\r\nAROUND THE HURRICANE.  THE MORNING INITIALIZATION OF THE AVN PLACES\r\nKEITH ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ACTUAL POSITION OF THE HURRICANE\r\nAND THE DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE ETA INITIALIZES\r\nBOTH SYSTEMS AND ROTATES THE TWO AROUND EACH OTHER.  THE UKMET...ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...DOES NOT SHOW THE SECOND SYSTEM AND TAKES KEITH TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.  GIVEN THIS SPREAD...IT IS HARD TO HAVE MUCH\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS...\r\nAND HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT A SLOW MOTION FORECAST IS THE BEST BET. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND MAY WELL NOT BE SLOW ENOUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 17.7N  87.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 17.7N  87.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.3N  88.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N  88.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  89.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 25.0N  91.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n \r\nRECON FOUND 76 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH GIVES 60-65 KT AT THE SURFACE\r\nUSING STANDARD REDUCTIONS...SO WE WILL KEEP KEITH A HURRICANE FOR AT\r\nLEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.  RECON AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT\r\nKEITH IS CREEPING TO THE WEST...BUT IS STILL OVER WATER.  A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT HAPPENING AS FAST AS FORECAST...AND\r\nTHE DISTURBANCE OVER WESTERN CUBA...WHICH IS NOT WELL INITIALIZED IN\r\nEITHER THE AVN OR UKMET...IS PROBABLY INTERFERING WITH THE RIDGING\r\nPROCESS.  THE AVN ALSO HAS BEEN INITIALIZING KEITH IN THE WRONG\r\nPLACE FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS NOT AS FAST TO THE NORTHWEST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING\r\nTHE UKMET WHICH TAKES KEITH TO THE TEXAS COAST IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nASSUMING KEITH EVER MOVES INLAND...IT WILL LIKELY SPEND AT LEAST 24\r\nHOURS OVER LAND.  GIVE THE SMALL WIND ENVELOPE...IT IS NOT CLEAR\r\nTHAT MUCH WILL SURVIVE THE TRIP.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IN 48-\r\n72 HOURS...AND SO WE LEAVE OPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nRECOVERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 17.7N  88.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.8N  88.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 18.9N  88.8W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.4N  89.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N  92.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON FLIGHT FOUND 75 KT WINDS AT 850 MB AT 2036Z...AND\r\nDECREASING WINDS THEREAFTER.  THE LAST REPORTED PRESSURE WAS 988 MB. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  KEITH IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE RECON FIXES INDICATED THAT KEITH WAS DRIFTING AT 330/2.  IT IS\r\nUNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS ANOTHER OF THE CYCLONE'S MEANDERS...OR IF\r\nIT IS THE START OF THE LONG-AWAITED NORTHWEST TURN.  IF IT IS THE\r\nLATTER...IT LOOKS RATHER STRANGE GIVEN THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THAT A\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF WESTERN\r\nCUBA.  IN THEORY...THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP KEITH ON A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  DESPITE THE THEORY...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nA GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHWEST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST\r\nOF THE STORM.  SEVERAL OF THE MODELS EVEN CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF COAST BEFORE 72 HR.  GIVEN KEITH'S RELUCTANCE TO\r\nMOVE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT GO AS FAST AS THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT WOULD\r\nNOT BE THE LEAST SURPRISING IF KEITH DID NOT TURN NORTHWARD AT\r\nALL...A TRACK FAVORED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nWHILE KEITH IS SUFFERING FROM A COMBINATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nLAND INTERACTION...IT SHOWS A GOOD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AND BANDED\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING AWAY FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nAND WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ASSUMING IT FOLLOWS THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND.  THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE AND PREDICTED FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO SHOULD ALLOW FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION...IF THE CENTER GETS\r\nTHERE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 18.0N  88.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.2N  88.2W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N  88.6W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.4N  89.4W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N  90.5W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N  93.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KEITH HAS FINALLY MOVED INLAND.  THE LAST RECON REPORT\r\nHAD THE CENTER SOUTHWEST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO ON RADAR AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 990 MB.  TERRAIN HAZARDS KEPT THE CREW FROM LOCATING THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE RECON WIND DATA\r\nSUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05.  NOW THAT KEITH IS INLAND...\r\nRAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.  THIS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE FUTURE\r\nTRACK OF KEITH.  I HAVE FOLLOWED THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL MODELS\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN TAKE KEITH MORE NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE UKMET MODEL.  THE UKMET SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE FAST\r\nWITH THE FORWARD MOTION...WHILE THE AVN MODEL LOSES KEITH AFTER\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  ONCE KEITH EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...RE-INTENSIFICATION AND A DEEPER CIRCULATION SHOULD DEVELOP. \r\nTHE DEEP LAYER FLOW AFTER 48 HOURS FAVORS A MORE NORTHWARD THAN\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...AND THAT TREND WAS FOLLOWED AS PER THE NOGAPS AND\r\nUKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nKEITH HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR THE PAST 36\r\nHOURS.  THAT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL KEITH\r\nEMERGES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AT THAT TIME...ALL THE GLOBAL\r\nAGREE THAT THE CENTER OF KEITH SHOULD BE UNDER THE MEAN 200 MB RIDGE\r\nAXIS AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  WITH BOTH A POLEWARD AND\r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN PRESENT...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED.  HOWEVER...SUCH A PATTERN OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...BUT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WAS HELD DOWN DUE THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nWESTERN GULF NOT MOVING OUT IN TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 18.3N  88.7W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.1N  89.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.1N  90.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N  90.9W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.0N  91.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N  92.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Keith","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL REPORTS OF GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE...THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND KEITH IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION. \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOVING SMARTLY TO THE WEST OVER\r\nSOUTHERN YUCATAN...BUT THERE MAY BE A LOWER LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM JET MISSION IN THE GULF LAST NIGHT SHOWED A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE\r\nDATA WERE WELL-ANALYZED BY THE AVN BUT SEEMINGLY NOT SO BY THE\r\nUKMET.  UNFORTUNATELY THE AVN AGAIN HAS KEITH IN THE WRONG\r\nPLACE...SO WE CANNOT RELY MUCH ON MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AND THE RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF...IT IS HARD TO SEE KEITH MAKING AS MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE BULK OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS IN THE GULF SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nRESTRENGTHENING ONCE KEITH GETS BACK OVER WATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 18.3N  89.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.5N  90.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 19.1N  91.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.2N  92.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  93.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N  95.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Keith","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH IS CONTINUING ITS TREK ACROSS THE YUCATAN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER...REVEALING A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE\r\nEXPOSED CENTER ALLOWS US TO BE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE...WHICH IS 290/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW COMING\r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REJECTING A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD EASTERN\r\nTEXAS OR LOUISIANA.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF AND KEEP KEITH ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nPOSSIBLE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT UNLIKE EARLIER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nKEITH WILL BE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ANOTHER 12 TO 18\r\nHOURS OR SO WITH ITS LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE RELATIVELY INTACT.  ARGUING\r\nAGAINST SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BUT PERHAPS NOT\r\nFAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW KEITH TO EXPLOSIVELY DEEPEN IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nGULF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 18.6N  89.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 18.9N  90.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 19.3N  91.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  93.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 24.5N  98.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Keith","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n \r\nAN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BURST HAS OCCURRED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\nAND THE ADJACENT COAST THIS EVENING WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF KEITH.  WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CARMEN AND\r\nCAMPECHE DO NOT YET INDICATE KEITH IS STRENGTHENING... THIS MAY BE A\r\nHARBINGER OF THINGS TO COME ONCE THE CENTER REACHES THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS MOVING SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n295/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR\r\nFORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES.  A BUILDING DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PUSH IT ON A GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE ONE TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nIS IF SOME KIND OF NORTHWARD TURN MIGHT OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER\r\nREACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN 48-72 HR IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS.  WHILE SOME TRACK GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THIS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL WAIT TO INDICATE SUCH A TURN IN CASE KEITH SHOULD PULL\r\nSOME TRACK-ALTERING TRICKS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...\r\nCONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN 72 HR.  IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT KEITH WILL STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT QUICK TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AFTER IT\r\nMOVES OFFSHORE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 19.1N  90.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.6N  91.5W    30 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 20.3N  92.8W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.3N  94.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  96.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 25.0N  99.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Keith","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n\r\nWITH A FEW IR IMAGES ONLY AND NO RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...THE\r\nCURRENT ANALYSIS AND FORECAST MAY BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT INDEED...\r\nKEITH LOOKS LIKE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM ON IR IMAGES OR READY TO BE\r\nONE.  IN FACT...LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB SUGGEST WINDS UP TO\r\n55 KNOTS.  I AM REALLY TEMPTED TO BRING KEITH BACK TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE THERE ARE NO GROUND OBSERVATIONS\r\nNEAR THE POSSIBLE CENTER TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER MAY BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY CONTINUITY...KEITH IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL PLATFORMS FROM PEMEX\r\nREPORTED WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST OF 34 KNOTS AND 1001 MB PRESSURE\r\nJUST TO THE WEST OF KEITH.  HOWEVER...I DO NOT KNOW HOW HIGH THESE\r\nPLATFORMS ARE.   IF THE PRESENT TREND CONTINUES...KEITH COULD BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER...ABOUT 9 KNOTS.  THERE IS A RIDGE OF\r\nHIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KEITH AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IN TIME.  THIS WOULD\r\nALLOW KEITH TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS.  THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK...TOWARD SOUTHERN TEXAS IS\r\nPROVIDED BY NOGAPS...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL NEVER TO MOVE KEITH\r\nNORTHWARD.  WATCHES OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nMAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL HELP TO DETERMINE\r\nBOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF KEITH LATER TODAY. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 19.9N  92.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 20.4N  93.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 21.3N  94.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 22.4N  95.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N  97.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 26.0N  99.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Keith","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE NOT ENTIRELY CLARIFIED THE\r\nLOCATION OR STRENGTH OF KEITH.  THE CYCLONE HAS A DISTINCTIVE MID-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION WELL EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nLOW CLOUDS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE\r\n35 TO 55 KT...AND THERE WERE A COUPLE OF ALLEGEDLY UNCONTAMINATED\r\nQUIKSCAT VECTORS SHOWING 40 KT.  GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS NOT WHERE I THINK IT IS...I AM RELUCTANT TO UPGRADE KEITH\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL RECON GETS OUT THERE AROUND 18Z.\r\nREGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM IS CLEARLY IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION AND\r\nSHOULD REGAIN THAT STATUS SOON.  I AM CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM JET LAST NIGHT OVER THE GULF SHOW ENOUGH OF\r\nA RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF TO KEEP KEITH ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST COURSE UNTIL LANDFALL...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 20.2N  93.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 20.8N  94.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 21.9N  96.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 23.3N  97.8W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N  99.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 27.5N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n \r\nRECON FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT AND A PRESSURE OF\r\n995...SO KEITH IS NOW A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM.  THE CIRCULATION HAS\r\nBECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING AS WELL...SO KEITH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. \r\nHURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS\r\nOF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR\r\nTRACK.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP KEITH ON A GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT MID-\r\nLATITUDE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 20.4N  94.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N  95.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 22.2N  96.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 23.8N  98.0W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 25.5N  99.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 27.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING...WITH\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH TOPS OF -80C OR COLDER NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nTHE LAST RECON FLIGHT FOUND THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 988 MB. \r\nTHERE WAS A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND TO 80 KT...BUT THIS LOOKED LIKE SOME\r\nSORT OF TRANSIENT FEATURE.  THERE WAS ALSO NO INDICATION AT THAT\r\nTIME OF AN EYE OR EYEWALL FORMING.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 60\r\nKT...AND THERE IS EVERY EXPECTATION THAT KEITH WILL BE A HURRICANE\r\nBY THE TIME THE NEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES AT 06Z.\r\n\r\nKEITH IS MOVING 290/11 ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN COAST IN 12-24 HR.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nKEITH IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.  THIS...COMBINED WITH\r\nTHE COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WARM WATER...INDICATES THAT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY UP TO LANDFALL.  MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 75-80 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL...AND KEITH SHOULD\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CHANGED AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE\r\nMEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WFO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 20.9N  95.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  96.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.0N  98.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N  99.8W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT KEITH HAS REACHED\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THIS IS BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 77 KNOTS\r\nAT 700 MB...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB AND A CIRCULAR EYE OF 20\r\nNAUTICAL MILES IN DIAMETER.  IN ADDITION...BOTH TAFB AND AIR FORCE\r\nGLOBAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH.  KEITH HAS\r\nAN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW...WITH A DISTINCT OUTFLOW JET TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\nLAND IS THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND KEITH\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nKEITH IS NOW MOVING 295/12.  UPPER-AIR DATA FROM MEXICO AND THE\r\nUNITED STATES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nKEITH.  THIS TYPE OF WARM HIGH IS IN GENERAL VERY PERSISTENT AND\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY\r\nOR TONIGHT.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 21.4N  96.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  98.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N 100.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 25.0N 102.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nRECON SEVERAL HOURS AGO FOUND 700 MB WINDS OF 85 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS\r\nA 75 KT SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE.  I HAVE ASSUMED THAT THE DEEPENING\r\nWAS NOT QUITE FINISHED IN GOING WITH 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nLITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE CENTER IS ONLY A\r\nFEW HOURS FROM THE COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND\r\nSLOWER THAN EARLIER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY.  NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 22.3N  97.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 23.3N  98.4W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 24.8N  99.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Keith","Adv":29,"Date":"2000-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH MOVED INLAND AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON JUST NORTH OF TAMPICO\r\nMEXICO.  PREVIOUS RECON SHOWED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDED FAR\r\nENOUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAT THERE MAY STILL BE A SMALL AREA\r\nOF SUCH WINDS REMAINING AND SO KEITH IS HELD AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  KEITH WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER INCREASINGLY\r\nROUGH TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 22.9N  98.2W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 24.2N  99.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 25.5N 100.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Keith","Adv":30,"Date":"2000-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM TAMPICO AND BROWNSVILLE SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nKEITH TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AFTER LANDFALL.  THIS DOES NOT\r\nAGREE WELL WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD VICTORIA....\r\nWHICH HAS REPORTED PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS.  HOWEVER...\r\nSIMULTANEOUS WITH THOSE WINDS WAS A REPORT OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING\r\nNORTHWEST.  THIS SUGGESTS THE WIND DIRECTION MAY BE AFFECTED BY\r\nTERRAIN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO 300/11 BASED ON THE RADAR.\r\n\r\nTHERE'S NOT MUCH ELSE TO SAY.  KEITH IS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  IT WILL LIKELY\r\nDISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HR...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL\r\nWILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 23.5N  99.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N 100.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 25.5N 101.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Keith","Adv":31,"Date":"2000-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEITH DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nKEITH IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WILL\r\nCONTINUE WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION PRODUCING\r\nHEAVY RAINS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON KEITH ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 23.5N 100.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 24.0N 102.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n \r\nTHE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DEVELOPING A CIRCULATION...WHEREAS\r\nEARLIER THE SYSTEM HAD MULTIPLE SMALL TRANSIENT SWIRLS ALONG A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE.  WITH CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM NOW HAS THE STRUCTURE OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  WE RECEIVED A SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF SUBTROPICAL T1.5\r\nFROM TAFB.  UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS SYSTEM IS BEING PROVIDED BY\r\nA TROUGH...RATHER THAN AN ANTICYCLONE TYPICALLY FOUND ABOVE TROPICAL\r\nSYSTEMS.  AMONG OTHER THINGS...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES DIFFER FROM\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES IN THAT THE FORMER ARE LESS SYMMETRICAL AND HAVE\r\nTHEIR STRONGEST WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATION AND SHIP REPORTS.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nWARM WATER AND THESE SYSTEMS OCCASIONALLY TRANSFORM INTO TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES.  REGARDLESS OF THE TECHNICAL STATUS OF THE SYSTEM...\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE BAROCLINIC GLOBAL MODELS CAN BE EXPECTED TO HANDLE THIS KIND OF\r\nSYSTEM FAIRLY WELL AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AVN...BUT\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS\r\nIT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 29.8N  80.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 30.7N  80.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 31.7N  78.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 32.5N  75.9W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 33.0N  72.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 34.0N  64.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n\r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB\r\nAND A LARGE AREA OF 30-35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG CONVECTIVE\r\nFLARE-UP EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS SEEMS TO BE PROPAGATING AWAY\r\nFROM THE CENTER INTO THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. \r\nTHEREFORE IT MAY NOT BE HELPING THE SYSTEM STRENGTHEN.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM ABOUT 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING.  THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 060/8...AND THIS MAY BE A BIT\r\nGENEROUS WITH THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE CYCLONE IS IN A LARGE AREA OF GENERAL WESTERLY TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL EAST TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS...AND IS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTH BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nOVER OR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY BE PROVIDING UPPER\r\nLEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PARTLY SHELTERING THE SYSTEM FROM WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE CURRENT STRONG CONVECTION THERE IS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR COULD DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE\r\nCYCLONE TAKES A MORE EASTERLY TRACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH A LEVELING OFF OF THE\r\nINTENSITY AFTER 36 HR WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO STRONGER UPPER\r\nLEVEL WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 29.8N  79.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 30.2N  78.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.6N  76.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  73.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.5N  70.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 34.5N  62.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n\r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PRESSURE OR WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY BEGINNING TO\r\nACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.   IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE IN PURE TROPICAL SYSTEMS...WELL...IT IS EVEN MORE\r\nDIFFICULT TO DO SO FOR A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.  ALL THAT CAN BE SAID\r\nAT THIS TIME IS THAT IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE WIND FIELD BECOMES MORE SYMMETRIC...THE SYSTEM\r\nWOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.   \r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES\r\nAT 8 KNOTS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT\r\nWAVE TROUGH.  THEREFORE...THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  \r\n\r\nBERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 29.9N  77.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.1N  75.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  73.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  71.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.0N  68.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  62.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BEEN CONTRACTING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT REPORTED WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER...WHEREAS\r\nYESTERDAY THEY WERE ABOUT TWICE AS FAR OUT...AND THERE HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nMORE CONSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nWHILE THIS IS BY NO MEANS A CLASSIC TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT HAS ENOUGH\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND...TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT NATURE PRODUCES A WHOLE\r\nSPECTRUM OF DIFFERENT KINDS OF CYCLONES...AND THAT THEY DO NOT\r\nALWAYS NEATLY FIT INTO THE SMALL NUMBER OF CLASSIFICATIONS THAT WE\r\nHAVE AVAILABLE FOR USE IN OUR ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL NOT TIGHT...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS BEST\r\nESTIMATED AS 080/13...FASTER THAN BEFORE.  LESLIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THEREFORE...THIS\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OFF THE EAST COAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MODELLED AFTER THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT IS\r\nFASTER THAN THE AVN WHICH DID NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 30.4N  76.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 30.8N  73.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.6N  70.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.8N  68.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 34.5N  65.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 40.0N  59.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nLESLIE LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CONVECTION RESTRICTED TO SEVERAL BANDS\r\nNORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT IS\r\nENROUTE TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE\r\nFOUND EARLIER TODAY.  THERE IS LITTLE WIND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.  SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH OVER THE CYCLONE TO\r\nPROHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE EASIER TO FOLLOW TODAY...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/10.  THERE WAS A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nEARLIER BUT APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED.  LESLIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE AVN AND UKMET\r\nDIG A MAJOR TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST THAT IS PRODUCING ACCELERATION\r\nIN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFDL MODELS...LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE FASTER BY DAY 3.  GIVEN THE\r\nLIMITED WINDFIELD ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME\r\nTO SEE THE CLOSED CIRCULATION DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER\r\nTONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 30.3N  75.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 30.3N  73.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 30.6N  71.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 31.8N  68.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 34.5N  64.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 43.0N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nWITH A MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE EAST QUADRANT.  THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 1009-1010 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT...\r\nWHICH WOULD NOT REALLY SUPPORT KEEPING LESLIE A STORM.  HOWEVER...\r\nSHIP 8PNK REPORTED 36 KT WINDS IN ONE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS AT\r\n00Z.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THUS KEPT AT 35 KT.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/11.  LESLIE IS EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL WEST\r\nTO WEST-SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS PUSHING THE STORM\r\nINTO THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH AT LOW LEVELS.  THE OVERALL STEERING\r\nFLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE LESLIE TO THE NORTHEAST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON\r\nTHIS...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING IN HOW FAST LESLIE WILL MOVE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE FASTER GFDL...GFDN...\r\nAVN...AND UKMET...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THOSE\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS\r\nTO BE INCREASING...AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BY THE LARGE SCALE\r\nMODELS DO NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. INDEED...MOST\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST EITHER WEAKENING OR NO CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...LESLIE HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE...AND\r\nACCELERATION WOULD INCREASE THE WINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A DECREASE IN STORM-RELATIVE\r\nSHEAR...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRENGTHENING SIMILAR TO THAT OF\r\nFLORENCE A FEW WEEKS AGO.  BAROCLINICALLY-INDUCED STRENGTHENING IS\r\nALSO POSSIBLE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...BUT\r\nNOT TO THE LEVEL OF THE GFDN WHICH HAS LESLIE AT 70 KT IN 36 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD WEAKEN TO A\r\nDEPRESSION BEFORE PASSING BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nWITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA NOW FORECAST TO BE IN 36 HR...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 30.6N  73.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.8N  71.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 31.7N  69.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 33.5N  66.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 36.5N  62.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 45.5N  53.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIAWRKAD1 LOC\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WELL EXPOSED CENTER.  MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS\r\nDOWN TO 1006 MB BUT THE WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 35 KNOTS.  LESLIE COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKNOTS.   HOWEVER...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND BECAUSE\r\nMOST OF THE WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 30.8N  72.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  69.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 33.0N  65.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 36.5N  61.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 42.0N  56.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 52.0N  46.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/09.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nACCELERATES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS OR NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS AS AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH\r\nAMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA RECON PLANE RECENTLY FOUND 45 KNOT WINDS ABOUT 90 NMI EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 850 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGEERY SHOWS THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER COMPLETELY EXPOSED WITH ALL SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WELL\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS ALTHOUGH\r\n99 PERCENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY BELOW THAT VALUE.  THIS\r\nSTORM IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT IS SWEPT ALONG BY\r\nTHE AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS THIS OCCURS.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.  THIS IS\r\nPRIMARILY FOR MARINE INTERESTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 31.1N  72.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 31.7N  70.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 33.5N  67.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 37.5N  62.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 43.0N  58.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 55.0N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Leslie","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS TOTALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS GRADUALLY WARMING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.  A RECENT\r\nRECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A MAXIMUM WIND OF\r\n41 KNOTS AT 1500 FT LOCATED 80 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  LESLIE\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT DEPRESSION.  SINCE THERE IS SO LITTLE\r\nCONVECTION...ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES AND\r\nTHE FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THIS BY INCREASING THE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS AT\r\n36 HOURS.  EVEN THIS MAY BE UNLIKEY AS THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL DOES\r\nNOT SHOW ANY SUCH STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/09.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nACCELERATE THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD...TO NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS...IMPLYING A FORWARD MOTION INCREASING TO 40 KNOTS OR MORE.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO AND TO\r\nMERGE WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 31.7N  71.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 32.9N  68.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 40.5N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 48.0N  54.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z...MERGED WITH COLD FRONT \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Leslie","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED...ALTHOUGH A FEW SMALL\r\nCONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT\r\n06/2303Z REPORTED A PRESSURE DROP TO 1006 MB AND 1500 FT. WINDS OF\r\n46 KT...AWAY FROM ANY CONVECTION.  THOSE VALUES INDICATE THAT LESLIE\r\nIS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO 30 KT IS MAINTAINED AS\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AROUND\r\nOR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE GUST FACTOR WAS INCREASED IN\r\nTHE FORECAST/MARINE ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/14.  LESLIE HAS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RUN.\r\nLESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE BEING\r\nABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE\r\nLEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL\r\nMODEL.  THIS SCENARIO IS BETWEEN THE 12Z UKMET AND THE 00Z SHALLOW\r\nBAM MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE LAST RECON REPORT...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTION\r\nTO DEVELOP NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER TO BRING THE STRONGER WINDS DOWN\r\nTO THE SURFACE AND MAKE LESLIE A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN.  THAT\r\nPOSSIBILITY EXISTS TONIGHT DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM\r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...BY 24 TO 36 HOURS...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE\r\nWITH THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHEN INTO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 18Z AVN AND 12Z\r\nUKMET MODEL RUNS WHICH SHOW STEADY DEEPENING AFTER 36 HOURS\r\nSOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 32.6N  70.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 34.3N  67.7W    30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 38.7N  63.9W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 42.5N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 50.5N  52.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Leslie","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED...ALTHOUGH A LARGE\r\nCONVECTIVE CELL HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER IN THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS.  \r\n \r\nLESLIE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nNOW 040/16.  THE O4O DEGREE HEADING SHOWS THAT LESLIE HAS AGAIN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DIRECTION.  LESLIE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL ENSEMBLE.  \r\n \r\nWITH THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER\r\nWINDS BEING ADVECTED DOWNWARD TO THE SURFACE IN CONVECTION IT WOULD\r\nNOT TAKE MUCH TO MAKE LESLIE A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN.  THAT\r\nPOSSIBILITY EXISTS TODAY.  HOWEVER...BY 24 TO 36 HOURS...LESLIE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND STRENGTHEN INTO A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 33.8N  68.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 35.9N  66.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 40.0N  62.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 45.5N  57.4W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 52.6N  49.2W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Leslie","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 07 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SHIPS REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nIS BECOMING ELONGATED WHILE BEING ABSORBED OR ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nSTRONG COLD FRONT.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nABOUT 20 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nFURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE INCLUDED IN FORECAST\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 36.2N  67.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 38.5N  65.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 41.5N  61.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 16 2000\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE CENTER BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS HAS\r\nGRADUALLY BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS.  AN AMSU PASS THIS MORNING...COURTESY OF THE UW/CIMSS WEB\r\nPAGE...SHOWED THE BEGINNINGS OF A WARM CORE ALOFT.  RECENT INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO THE WEST\r\nAND NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nCONTRACTED AS WELL.  WHILE THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT\r\nDEEP...IT IS WELL ORGANIZED...AND THE LOW CLEARLY NOW MEETS THE\r\nCRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB USING THE TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION IS 30 KT...AND IS THE\r\nBASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY VALUE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 23Z\r\nHAD ONE RAIN-FREE VECTOR OF 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY\r\nVERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE DEPRESSION TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE\r\nSOME DIRECT INTENSITY DATA.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLOW EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT DURING THE DAY\r\nTODAY.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW...CURRENTLY CUTOFF\r\nFROM THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND IN BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST\r\nU.S. COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH\r\nTHEN NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE\r\nMEDIUM LAYER BAM.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH OUTFLOW HAS BEEN IMPROVING...THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS THE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH WOULD ALSO NOT BE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE.  ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 29.8N  70.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 30.3N  70.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 30.8N  70.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 32.0N  70.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 34.5N  69.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 44.0N  58.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM\r\nMICHAEL BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT\r\n...DVORAK T2.5...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES.\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION...CLOUD TOPS OF -50C TO -60C...HAVE NOW\r\nCOMPLETELY ENCIRCLED THE NEARLY CLOUD-FREE CENTRAL CORE. OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...\r\nWHILE MAKING A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO THE CONVECTION ROTATING\r\nAROUND THE CENTER.  MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING FLOW REGIME IN THE NECK OF A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THERE\r\nMAY BE A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST AS THE LONGWAVE\r\nTROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD AS THE NORTHERN U.S.\r\nTROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL\r\nTREND SHOULD BE FOR VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AFTERWARDS AS\r\nMICHAEL GETS PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE TO THE NORTH FOR A\r\nPREVIOUSLY COLD-CORE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH NOT AN EYE FEATURE...THE\r\nNEARLY CLOUD-FREE INNER CORE HAS DEVELOPED MODERATE CONVECTION ALL\r\nTHE WAY AROUND.  IF THIS SYSTEM WAS IN THE DEEP TROPICS...SUCH A\r\nPATTERN WOULD BE INDICATIVE OF A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE RATHER SHALLOW NATURE OF THE\r\nSURROUNDING CONVECTION AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE U.S.\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE MICHAEL LATER TODAY WHICH\r\nSHOULD PROVE TO BE QUITE INTERESTING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 29.9N  70.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 30.5N  70.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 31.1N  70.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.2N  69.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 35.5N  67.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 45.0N  56.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000\r\n\r\nMICHAEL HAS AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON VISUAL SATELLITE IMAGES. \r\nTHERE IS AN OBVIOUS EYE...BUT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nSURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD...MOSTLY WARMER THAN -60C. \r\nSHIP AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT AS\r\nSTRONG AS THE VISIBLE PICTURES SUGGEST...AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY ARE A\r\nCONSENSUS 45 KNOTS.  EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nMARGINAL...BASED ON THE EXCELLENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS MICHAEL MOVES OVER\r\nCOLDER WATERS. \r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES...AND MEANDERING...\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY EVENING.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEEPEN ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE RESULTING\r\nSTEERING CURRENT SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO START MOVING NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND DEEP-LAYER BAM\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT...AND\r\nTHE EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 29.8N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 30.5N  70.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 32.0N  70.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 34.0N  69.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 38.0N  66.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 47.0N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000\r\n\r\nA WELL-DEFINED EYE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE COMING IN\r\nLINE WITH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE.  AN EXPERIENCED AIRCRAFT\r\nMETEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 TO 70 KNOTS...AND FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 72 KNOTS WERE ALSO MEASURED.  MICHAEL IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THE BASIS OF THESE OBSERVATIONS.  SINCE\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL...WITH SOME\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO AS SHEAR\r\nINCREASES EVEN FURTHER AND WATER TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN.\r\n\r\nMICHAEL HAS MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND COMPLETED ANOTHER LOOP IN ITS\r\nTRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE EAST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST AVN\r\nMODEL RUN.  THAT MODEL SHOULD PERFORM QUITE WELL FOR THIS TYPE OF\r\nSYSTEM.  MICHAEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING ALONG\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS MICHAEL APPROACHES THE\r\nASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT CYCLONE...WHICH IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHEAST U.S. ...IT SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MICHAEL MAY IN FACT BECOME ABSORBED BY\r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 30.2N  71.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 30.8N  70.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 32.2N  69.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 34.5N  68.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 39.0N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 48.5N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 17 2000\r\n \r\nTHE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND\r\n06Z.  AT 00Z...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nKGWC...AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  THE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SENDING MIXED\r\nSIGNALS.  ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED A BIT...THE\r\nEYE HAS SOMETIMES BEEN HARD TO SEE AND THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE\r\nINCREASING A BIT AS WELL.  THE LATEST SSMI IMAGE ALSO IS SUGGESTIVE\r\nOF SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL\r\nOF THE NEXT RECON AIRCRAFT.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...BASED MOSTLY ON AN INVALID\r\nPERSISTENCE COMPONENT...AND THE GFDL ALSO CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING. \r\nGIVEN THE INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS I AM RELUCTANT TO GO\r\nALONG WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND INSTEAD WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSTANT FOR 24 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION APPEARS TO BE SETTLING DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 020/3.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSPOHY.  MICHAEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nDEEPENING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  AS MICHAEL\r\nAPPROACHES THE ASSOCIATED POLAR FRONT CYCLONE...WHICH IS PREDICTED\r\nTO DEVELOP NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. ...IT SHOULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN \r\nACCELERATION THAT IS SLOWER THAN THE AVN OR GFDL BUT FASTER THAN THE\r\nFSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 30.5N  70.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 31.2N  70.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  69.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 36.5N  65.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 41.5N  60.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z ...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-10-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2000\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 984 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB WINDS OF 73 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR 06Z.  A SECOND FIX NEAR 08Z SHOWED 986 MB. \r\nWHILE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED...A FAINT\r\nEYE IS STILL PRESENT AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65\r\nTO 77 KT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMICHAEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n015/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH RIDGING EAST\r\nOF MICHAEL.  INFRARED IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE A STRONG\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE TROUGH AND\r\nTHE ASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD MOVE MICHAEL NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nHOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY PREVENTING SIGNIFICANT\r\nEASTWARD MOTION.  THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS\r\nNEAR NEW ENGLAND OR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND MICHAEL SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS THAT HAPPENS.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING IN HOW\r\nFAST MICHAEL WILL MOVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT AND\r\nSOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ACCELERATING MICHAEL TO\r\nMORE THAN 30 KT BY 48 HR.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WESTERLIES ENCROACHING ON MICHAEL...AND\r\nBOTH SATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HINT THAT SHEARING IS BEGINNING. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD STEADILY INCREASE\r\nAS MICHAEL MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO COOLER WATER.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE STORM TO WEAKEN...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  MICHAEL SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND\r\nMERGE WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW BY 72 HR.  WHILE SOME STORMS THAT\r\nINTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES STRENGTHEN AS THEY ACCELERATE...THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WESTERLIES SHOULD PRODUCE TOO MUCH SHEAR TO\r\nALLOW MICHAEL TO DO THAT.\r\n\r\n34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT 75 NM EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 31.1N  70.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 32.1N  70.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 34.7N  68.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 38.7N  64.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 44.0N  58.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW...\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-10-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 18 2000\r\n\r\nAN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nMICHAEL IS BECOMING DISTORTED...AND WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE\r\nINCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM.  I AM KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH PENDING THE 18Z RECON MISSION...WHICH MAY REVEAL THAT\r\nWEAKENING IS UNDERWAY.  MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MERGING WITH A\r\nPOLAR FRONT CYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...CENTER FIXES ARE LESS RELIABLE SINCE THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS PROBABLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nONE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/8.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS\r\nABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. AND THE ASSOCIATED STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS\r\nTROUGH SHOULD WHISK MICHAEL NORTHEASTWARD.   \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY IN THE FORECAST AS THE\r\nSYSTEM TAKES ON EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 31.7N  70.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 33.5N  68.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  65.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 42.0N  60.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-10-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER LATE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  A RECENT AIR RECON FLIGHT REPORTED 89 KNOTS AT\r\n850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL AT A POSITION SOME 18 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER ALONG WITH 979 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO\r\nRECENTLY REPORTED 95 KNOTS AT 1500 FT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND 980 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE..AS WELL AS A STEP FREQUENCY RADIOMETER\r\nMEASUREMENT OF 85 KNOTS SURFACE WIND.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.  THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE VALUE BASED ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION OF INCREASED STABILITY NEAR THE SURFACE BASED ON A 76\r\nDEGREE F SST REPORT FROM A NEARBY SHIP THIS MORNING.  A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES\r\nOVER COLD WATER AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL WHILE BEING ABSORBED INTO\r\nAN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AS DEPICTED IN THE 12Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/15.  THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS\r\nACCELERATION TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS\r\nSHIFTED JUST SLIGHLTY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 33.7N  68.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  66.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 41.0N  62.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 46.0N  57.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 51.0N  54.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/11800Z MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-10-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 18 2000\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS ACCELERATING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 040/23...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ADVANCING DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH MOVING OFF THE UPPER U.S. EAST COAST.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nARE RAPIDLY WARMING AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AS MICHAEL\r\nBEGINS ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE WIND SPEED IS BEING\r\nREDUCED ONLY TO 70 KT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE 80+ KT OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM THE NOAA P-3 STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER\r\nMEASUREMENTS WITHIN THE PAST 6-8 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AS WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES COOL AND CONVECTION DIMINISHES MICHAEL SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE DEVELOPING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MICHAEL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBEFORE LOSING ITS CIRCULATION...THE LATTER MAY WELL HAPPEN FIRST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 35.2N  66.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 38.0N  63.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 42.8N  58.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-10-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2000\r\n \r\nMICHAEL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 040/33.  A POORLY-DEFINED EYE IS STILL PRESENT...ALONG\r\nWITH SOME EYEWALL CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65\r\nKT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE DECREASED TO 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WEST OF MICHAEL...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AN\r\nASSOCIATED LOW FORMING JUST SOUTH OF WESTERN NOVA SCOTIA.  MICHAEL\r\nSHOULD MERGE WITH THIS LOW...WITH THE MAIN QUESTIONS BEING EXACTLY\r\nWHERE AND WHEN.  LARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MERGER\r\nCOULD OCCUR IN LESS THAN 24 HR.  SINCE MICHAEL IS STRONGER THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE MODELS...IT MAY KEEP ITS IDENTITY A LITTLE LONGER\r\nOR BECOME THE PREDOMINANT CENTER IN THE MERGER.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nASSUMES THAT MICHAEL WILL KEEP ITS IDENTITY WHILE LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...TAKING THE CENTER TO NEAR SOUTHEASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HR.  THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THAT OF THE\r\nCANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF\r\nMICHAEL AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW MERGE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...THE COMBINED CENTER WILL TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW OR WHERE MICHAEL AND THE LOW COME\r\nTOGETHER...THE STRONG DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM STRONG.  ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS IS EXPECTED...ALONG WITH A SPREADING OUT OF THE WIND\r\nFIELD AS MICHAEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 37.5N  64.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 41.4N  60.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 47.1N  53.2W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-10-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2000\r\n\r\nSHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS ALREADY\r\nEXPANDING AS MICHAEL BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM.   HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT\r\nMICHAEL IS RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IN FACT... THERE\r\nIS STILL AN EYE FEATURE ON VISIBLE IMAGES SURROUNDED BY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  MICHAEL IS KEPT AS A HURRICANE MOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST\r\nABOUT 33 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTERACTION OF MICHAEL WITH THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS\r\nSTILL ANTICIPATED.  THIS PROBABLY WILL RESULT IN A STRONG TROPICAL\r\nSTORM OR A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CROSSING NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE\r\nFORCE AND HEAVY RAINS.  LOCAL FORECAST DETAILS ARE PROVIDED BY\r\nENVIRONMENT CANADA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 41.3N  60.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 45.0N  56.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 49.5N  51.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-10-19 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000\r\n \r\nDATA FROM SHIP 3EHR6 INDICATE THAT MICHAEL WAS STRONGER THAN\r\nANALIZED.  THE SHIP LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EYEWALL REPORTED AT\r\n1700 UTC SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 80 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 965.5\r\nMB.  \r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ADJUST BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY\r\nACCORDINGLY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1800Z 44.0N  58.3W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 46.0N  57.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 50.0N  53.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000\r\n \r\nMICHAEL CONTINUES AS A HURRICANE MAINTAINING ITS COMPACT WARM CORE\r\nAND IS RACING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 45 KNOTS AHEAD OF A\r\nSHORT WAVE.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE BEGINNING AND THE END OF THE TRANSITION\r\nPROCESS IS VERY LOW. NEVERTHELESS...EITHER TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL\r\n...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  SEE LOCAL FORECASTS PROVIDED BY\r\nENVIRONMENT CANADA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 46.0N  57.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 51.5N  51.5W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 56.0N  40.5W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-10-20 00:30:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n830 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MICHAEL ACQUIRED A FRONTAL\r\nSTRUCTURE JUST BEFORE REACHING NEWFOUNDLAND AND IS NO LONGER A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON MICHAEL.  THE\r\nFRONTAL CYCLONE REMNANT LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER LAND AND MOVING AT\r\n020/40.  THERE WAS A RECENT REPORT OF 70 KT AT AN ELEVATION OF 35\r\nMETERS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER BEFORE IT MADE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0030Z 48.5N  56.5W    75 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL...\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE ATLANTIC\r\nFOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION EIGHTEEN.  ALTHOUGH A WELL DEFINED CENTER IS NOT APPARENT\r\nAT THIS TIME ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE IS AN ESTABLISHED BROAD\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN BANDS. \r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD.  THE VESSEL C6LP4 LOCATED ON THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KNOTS FROM THE\r\nSOUTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS.  A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL\r\nOVER WARM WATERS AND BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH ABOUT 14 KNOTS. A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS INDICATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER\r\nTHE OPEN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 28.6N  59.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 30.0N  58.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 32.0N  55.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 34.5N  52.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 36.5N  50.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 41.0N  45.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-10-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS HARD TO LOCATE...ALTHOUGH AN SSMI\r\nPASS AT 22Z SEEMED TO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL MOTION...030/11...\r\nIS NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nRECENT SHIP REPORTS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE\r\nSAME TROUGH THAT JUST ATE MICHAEL.  THE AVN AND UKMET PULL THE\r\nTROUGH OUT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION AND ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CYCLONE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN COAST IN 42-48 HOURS.  THE GFDL REACTS\r\nTO THIS BY TURNING THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HINTS AT THIS BUT IS TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE GFDL.\r\n\r\nAS WE WERE WITH MICHAEL...WE ARE FACED WITH HAVING TO ASSESS HOW THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL RESPOND TO THE SHEAR ON THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER\r\nTROUGH.  THIS CYCLONE IS NOT FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS FAST AS\r\nMICHAEL...SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGHER WITH\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FARTHER FROM ANY\r\nMID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SOURCES OF ENERGY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN SHOWING ONLY MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL IS A MORE ENTHUSIASTIC AND I NOTE THAT IT\r\nDID FAIRLY WELL WITH THE INTENSITY OF MICHAEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 29.0N  58.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 30.3N  57.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 32.1N  54.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 34.1N  52.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 36.5N  49.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 42.5N  44.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-10-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN IS ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM.  SHIP VRWK5\r\nREPORTED 33 KT ABOUT 105 NM ESE OF THE CENTER AT 06Z...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHERE THE CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE\r\nCONVECTION.  ALSO...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM AFWA IS 25 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR NOW.  FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY SHOULD RESOLVE THE WHEREABOUTS OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION COMPROMISES BETWEEN MORE NORTHERLY FIXES OF\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND A MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION FROM A 0119Z\r\nSSM/I OVERPASS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/11.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT A DEEP LAYER TROUGH...INCLUDING THE REMAINS OF\r\nMICHAEL...COVERS THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT THIS TROUGH WILL BY-PASS THE CYCLONE...LEAVING IT TO BE PICKED\r\nUP BY A SECOND TROUGH DEVELOPING IN 36 TO 72 HR.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 TO 48\r\nHR...WITH SOME TURN TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...PARTICULARLY AFTER 48 HR. \r\nTHIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET ON THE LEFT...AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY\r\nFAVORABLE...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE AND A JET\r\nSTREAM TO THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HR.  ADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nCOLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STOP\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AT\r\nABOUT 48 HR...THE CYCLONE MAY COME UNDER THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF\r\nA JET STREAM TO THE EAST OF A SHARP...POSSIBLY NEGATIVELY TILTED\r\nUPPER TROUGH.  THIS BRINGS UP THE POSSIBILITY OF BAROCLINICALLY-\r\nINDUCED STRENGTHENING AS HAPPENED WITH MICHAEL.  THE FORECAST WILL\r\nNOT YET REFLECT THIS...AS IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE FORCING FROM THE\r\nTROUGH WILL OVERCOME THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  IN ANY CASE...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 72 HR OVER THE COLD\r\nWATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT AND THE EXPECTED MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 29.8N  57.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 31.1N  56.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 32.9N  54.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 34.9N  51.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 37.5N  49.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 45.0N  44.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-10-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/12.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS\r\nTHE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES FROM THE GREAT LAKES EASTWARD AND\r\nCUTS OFF A LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSATELITTE-BASED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC\r\nARE 3.0/2.5/2.0 WITH A CDO FEATURE NEAR AND NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING TO A TROPICAL STORM.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS NEAR A FRONTAL ZONE AND STRONG WESTERLIES\r\nALOFT...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS MODEST STRENGTHENING AS DOES THE\r\nGFDL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS AT\r\n24 HOURS AND CALLS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION BY 72 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 30.8N  57.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 32.1N  55.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 34.0N  53.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 36.5N  51.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 40.0N  48.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11.  VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES NOT\r\nALLOW A VERY ACCURATE DETERMINATION OF THE LOCATION SINCE THERE ARE\r\nLITTLE OR NO LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WITHIN ABOUT 100 N MI OF THE\r\nPRESUMED CENTER.  THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY SHOWING AN ACCELERATION MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS AHEAD OF THE NEXT DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OVER\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET MODELS AND WELL AS MPC GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS FALLING APART AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY RECENT QUICKSCAT AND SSMI DATA AS WELL AS VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY.  PERHAPS THE CENTER HAS TANGLED WITH A COLD FRONT. \r\nMEANWHILE AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED AND THE WINDS ARE\r\nINCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH\r\nINDICATES STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD SSTS AHEAD.  THE GFDL\r\nFORECASTS WINDS TO NEAR 70 KNOTS.  THESE FORECASTS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION ARE LIKELY BASED ON BAROCLINIC FORCING RATHER THAN\r\nTROPICAL ENERGY SOURCES SINCE THERE IS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nCOLD SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.   EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION\r\nIS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 31.9N  56.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 33.3N  55.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 35.8N  53.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 42.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 52.0N  35.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-10-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 20 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE HAS INTENSIFIED BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF AT LEAST 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nALSO AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE NOW APPARENT IN BOTH INFRARED AND SSMI\r\nMICROWAVE DATA.  A NEW BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED\r\nIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CENTER AND THIS IS THE REASON FOR\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.  OUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE\r\nWITH TRANSVERSE CIRRUS BANDING NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE...\r\nALSO INDICATIVE OF AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/16. NADINE MADE AN EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nJOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nHAS IMPINGED ON THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST.  HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A\r\nHIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE PRESENT TO THE EAST AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY...NADINE SHOULD RESUME A MORE NORTHEASTLY MOTION AND\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MORE\r\nRAPID ACCELERATION AFTERWARDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE APPEARANCE OF A POSSIBLE EYE FEATURE AND THE CURRENT\r\nIMPRESSSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT\r\nNADINE COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SURFACE ANALYSES AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT LIES JUST NORTHWEST OF NADINE. \r\nMERGER WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAUSING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nSHOULD BEGIN WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nIS ONLY BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC EFFECTS...\r\nWHICH COULD EVEN INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM SOME AFTER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 33.0N  54.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 35.0N  52.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 37.7N  49.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 40.6N  45.9W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 45.0N  41.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 54.5N  28.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-10-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17.  THE HEADING HAS TURNED 20\r\nDEGREES TO THE RIGHT IN THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE FORWARD MOTION HAS\r\nINCREASED.  THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO THE LOW TO THE NORTH WHICH\r\nIS FORECAST TO BYPASS THE STORM.  NADINE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE\r\nTO WAIT FOR THE NEXT SHORT WAVE FOR ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE LEFT.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES\r\nTHE NEXT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO NEAR\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND IN 48 HOURS.  OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nAS BEFORE...ACCELERATING NADINE NORTHEASTWARD FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOOKING LIKE A FRONTAL WAVE AND\r\nTHE COLD FRONT MAY WELL BE INTERACTING WITH THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BY NOW.  BUT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE 55 AND 45 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS LAST ADVISORY...INCREASING THE WIND FROM 50 TO TO 60 KNOTS\r\nBUT AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES\r\nTHE SAME AND THE GFDL MODEL HAS AN EXTRATROPICAL 64 KNOTS IN 48\r\nHOURS WITH 42 KNOT VERTICAL SHEAR AND 17C SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 34.0N  52.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 35.5N  51.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 38.0N  49.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 41.5N  45.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 46.5N  39.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 57.0N  26.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-10-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS BECOME RATHER RAGGED-\r\nLOOKING...AND THE CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY WELL-\r\nORGANIZED LOOKING AT THIS TIME...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY\r\nOR SO.  WE COULD SEE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN SHOWN HERE...DUE TO\r\nBAROCLINIC PROCESSES...OR BECAUSE OF A MERGER WITH ANOTHER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW AS WAS THE CASE WITH MICHAEL.  HOWEVER WE HAVE\r\nLITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING SUCH EVENTS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 045/17.   SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION SHOULD\r\nBEGIN IN A DAY OR SO AS A 500 MB TROUGH...CURRENTLY NEAR THE EASTERN\r\nGREAT LAKES... MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CREATES AN\r\nINCREASING NORTHEASTWARD STEERING CURRENT FOR NADINE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST AVN MODEL RUN AND IS\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE EXPERIMENTAL FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE MODEL\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 35.4N  51.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 37.4N  49.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 40.0N  46.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 44.0N  42.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 49.0N  35.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 58.0N  20.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-10-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000\r\n\r\nEARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES WERE APPARENTLY BASED ON A MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...WHICH...BECAUSE OF VERTICAL SHEAR...WAS DISPLACED NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE SURFACE CENTER.  AS A RESULT THE EARLIER ESTIMATED FORWARD\r\nMOTION WAS TOO FAST TO THE NORTHEAST.  NADINE IS RELOCATED ON THIS\r\nADVISORY AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/11.  IN SPITE OF THE\r\nSLOWER INITIAL MOTION...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR\r\nCONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR SO AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SHEARING AND SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME\r\nLESS ORGANIZED...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS.  ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE BAROCLINIC-\r\nTYPE INTENSIFICATION...RE-STRENGTHENING SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE NOAA-15 ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDER UNIT...AMSU...\r\nINDICATE THAT NADINE STILL HAS A WEAK WARM CORE...EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLES THAT OF A POLAR FRONT CYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR NADINE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 35.3N  50.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 37.0N  49.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 41.0N  45.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 45.0N  40.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 51.0N  32.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2000\r\n \r\nDUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT... \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  NADINE IS QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO AN\r\nEXTRA-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT INTERACTS WITH A NEARBY\r\nCOLD FRONT.  IN FACT...THE INFRARED SATELLITE DEPICTION IS\r\nSTRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO AN OCCLUDED MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\nHOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON A 21/2226Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATING 40 TO 45 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND 50\r\nKT RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  SATELLITE POSITION\r\nESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nLATEST MARINE PREDICTION CENTER...MPC...FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE GFDL AND \r\nUKMET MODELS...AND CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL.\r\n \r\nNADINE IS ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ON\r\nTHE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED DIFFLUENT TROUGH.\r\nDUE TO THE SHEAR...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND COOL OCEAN WATER...\r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nCENTER IS UNLIKELY.  NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE THE RAPID TRANSITION TO\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND... ASIDE FROM A POSSIBLE\r\nBAROCLINIC-TYPE INTENSIFICATION...RE-STRENGTHENING SEEMS UNLIKELY AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THE REMNANTS OF NADINE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH\r\nANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN FOUND IN THE\r\nMPC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AFOS/AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER\r\nWMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 36.3N  49.9W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 38.1N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 41.7N  44.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 47.5N  37.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 55.0N  29.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-05-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON MAY 22 2000\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND SHIP REPORTS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE\r\n2000 EAST PACIFIC SEASON.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...NOT FAR FROM THE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OFF THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST.  IN THE LONGER RANGE...A MAJOR TROUGH OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nCOAST COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IF THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS\r\nAS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.  THE PRESENTATION ON\r\nBOTH IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN IMPROVING THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE MORNING...WITH BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT\r\nCLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST EDGE.  IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 13.5N  99.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.3N 101.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 103.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.7N 105.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 107.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 110.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-05-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON MAY 22 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nBAND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS ERODED SOME...NEW BANDING\r\nHAS DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH NOW AND IS LIKELY TO BECOME A STORM LATER TODAY.  THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11...ABOUT THE SAME AS THE LAST PACKAGE. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS A GREAT DEAL OF SCATTER.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL STALLS THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HOURS AND TURNS IT BACK TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  THE UKMET SUGGESTS A SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS...WHILE THE BAMS AND THE STATISTICAL P91E INDICATE A\r\nMOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET...ALTHOUGH WE\r\nSTILL EXPECT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM TO KEEP\r\nTHE SYSTEM OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  \r\n\r\nWIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS A RATHER COMPACT WIND FIELD...AND TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS ALONG THE\r\nCOAST NORTH OF THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 14.2N 100.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 102.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 15.7N 104.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.4N 105.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 107.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-05-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON MAY 22 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/11.  A 500-MB LOW JUST WEST\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN 3 TO\r\n4 DAYS.  THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A SLOWING OF THE WESTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE.  THE P9UK\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL ALSO SHOWS SOME SLOWING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS INFLUENCED BY THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE DEPRESSION\r\nPARALLEL TO AND ABOUT 150 N MI OFF SHORE OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS AND STRENGTHENING MAY BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN\r\nFORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BUT THE CONVECITON THAT REMAINS\r\nIS NEAR THE CENTER AS WELL AS IN A CURVED BAND AND THE LIMITED\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPP0RT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. \r\n\r\nWE ARE ADVERTISING THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...FROM OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHIS SYSTEM. \r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 14.7N 101.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.4N 103.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.2N 104.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.8N 106.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-05-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE MAY 23 2000\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WITH ENOUGH BANDING FEATURES ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES TO\r\nYIELD A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  THIS EQUATES TO\r\nMINIMAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.  HIGH CLOUD\r\nMOTIONS SHOW FAIR UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND\r\nNORTH OF THE STORM.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nFAVOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL SLIGHTLY.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE\r\nTO THE WEST OF BAJA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THIS FEATURE SHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ALETTA TO SOME EXTENT...SO STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A CONTINUED\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.     \r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FROM OUTER BANDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 14.8N 102.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.4N 103.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.1N 105.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N 106.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 107.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-05-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE MAY 23 2000\r\n \r\nEARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH ALETTA IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION. AN\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND BANDING\r\nFEATURES ARE FORMING.  THE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR.  BECAUSE T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT SOME PARAMETERS...SST AND SHEAR...ARE FAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nALETTA IS STILL IN DEVELOPING STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE ON IR IMAGES.  BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/07.\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A LITTLE MOTION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  IN FACT...GFDL...UK...AND AVN MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING\r\nALETTA TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST OPTED FOR KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK\r\nAND CALLS FOR A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP\r\nALETTA AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.1N 103.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 106.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 107.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-05-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE MAY 23 2000\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nALETTA EITHER REFORMED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION OR MOVED SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nHAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD ACCORDINGLY. \r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION WITH A\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AN\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED\r\nTO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUIVALENT TO 45-KNOT WINDS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS ALETTA TO 75 KNOTS MAINLY DUE TO WARM\r\nWATERS...THE GFDL...UK AND AVN MODELS SUGGEST WEAKENING BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES ABSORBED BY A\r\nTROUGH OR BECOMES ILL DEFINED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS SHIPS.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENTS BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS ALETTA ON A GENERAL AND SLOW WESTWARD\r\nTRACK BUT WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT IT IS HARD TO\r\nIGNORE THE AVN...UK AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 14.5N 103.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 14.7N 104.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.9N 105.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 105.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 106.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 107.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-05-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE MAY 23 2000\r\n \r\nALETTA IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST BY\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL TO REMAIN WEAK WITH A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED WEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMOVES THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A PERSISTANT CDO FEATURE AND GOOD BANDING WAS EVIDENT ON\r\nTHE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50\r\nKNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT\r\nAS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 14.6N 103.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.6N 104.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N 105.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.7N 106.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 14.8N 106.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 107.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-05-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED MAY 24 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST-TYPE\r\nFEATURE BUT BANDING IS NOT EASILY DISCERNIBLE ON THE IR IMAGERY. \r\nVERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...COLDER THAN -80C...PERSIST OVER THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AGREE ON A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS STILL\r\nSOME SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  ASIDE FROM THAT...\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHEREFORE ALETTA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/ DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL...SHIPS.\r\n\r\nA SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...NEAR 6 KNOTS...CONTINUES.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH\r\nOF ALETTA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO A FURTHER\r\nDECREASE OF THE STEERING CURRENT.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GIVING\r\nDIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...WHICH TYPICALLY OCCURS WHEN STEERING BECOMES\r\nILL-DEFINED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR...\r\nAND SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 14.6N 104.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.6N 105.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.7N 106.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.8N 106.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 107.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-05-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED MAY 24 2000\r\n \r\nALETTA BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2000 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND KGWC INDICATE THAT THE\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUIVALENT TO\r\n65 KNOTS OR HURRICANE INTENSITY.  ALETTA HAS A LARGE AREA OF CENTRAL\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TO THE WEST. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS FAIR BUT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.  SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL...THE BEST PERFORMER SO FAR...BRINGS ALETTA TO 80\r\nKNOTS BY 48 TO 60 HOURS AND THEN INDICATES NO CHANGE. SHIPS\r\nINDICATES THAT THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO STRENGTHENING COMES FROM\r\nWARM SST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY SHIPS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/05. A WARM HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST AND THE TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS\r\nWEAKENING. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE ALETTA TO MOVE ON A VERY SLOW\r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS. GFDL TAKE ALETTA EASTWARD...AVN LOOPS THE\r\nHURRICANE WHILE THE BAM MODELS MOVE THE HURRICANE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT\r\nA FASTER PACE.   \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 14.5N 105.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N 106.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 14.7N 106.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.7N 107.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-05-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED MAY 24 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ALETTA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nDVORAK T4.5 (75 KT) AND T4.0 (65 KT)...RESPECTIVELY. VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nALSO INDICATES A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT OVER THE PAST\r\n2 HOURS AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A 30 NM DIAMETER EYE SHOWN IN A\r\n1609Z TRMM OVERPASS IMAGE. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INCREASED THE\r\nINTENSITY SLIGHTLY. OUTFLOW IS MAINLY CONFINED TO ONE POLEWARD\r\nCHANNEL...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR AND SYMMETRICAL\r\nALSO SUGGESTING SOME STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED. THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL INDICATES SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 88 KT THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS AND THEN LEVELS OFF AFTER THAT. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT TREND\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS BASED ON ALETTA\r\nREMAINING OVER WARM SSTS AND IN WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 280/05. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE\r\nMODELS. WE ARE NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON THE UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS\r\nOF SLIGHT RECURVATURE SINCE THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT AFTER 36 HOURS ALLOWING THE MEXICAN\r\nWARM HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...WE ARE\r\nFORECASTING A SLIGHT POLEWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AND DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nBACK TO THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 15.0N 106.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.2N 106.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 15.8N 108.2W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-05-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED MAY 24 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ALETTA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS\r\nRAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DVORAK T5.0 (90 KT) AND T4.5 (75\r\nKT)...RESPECTIVELY. THE CDO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED WHILE TOPS\r\nNEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAVE COOLED TO -85 TO -88C. THE EYE IS NO\r\nLONGER APPARENT IN VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY...BUT A 1649Z SSMI\r\nOVERPASS CLEARLY INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED EYEWALL SO WE HAVE\r\nINCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT.  OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO\r\nTHE WEST BUT HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE EAST DUE TO\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONTINUES STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH\r\nGRADUAL AFTERWARDS AS ALETTA APPROACHES COOLER SSTS (26C) BY 72\r\nHOURS. WE HAVE FOLLOWED SHIPS CLOSELY BUT HAVE HELD DOWN THE\r\nINTENSITY SLIGHTLY DUE TO POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF LOW-LEVEL STABLE\r\nCLOUDS TO THE WEST AS INDICATED IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 280/07 AND THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE\r\nIN OUR FORECAST MODELS. THE GFDL HAS HAD A PERSISENT SHARP RIGHT OF\r\nTRACK BIAS AND SLIGHT RECURVATURE FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS SO WE HAVE\r\nDISCOUNTED THE LATEST GFDL SOLUTION. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFDL..ALBEIT TO A LESSER EXTENT...IN ALETTA GAINING\r\nLATITUDE AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO\r\nBE HANDLING WELL THE 700 TO 200 MB HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INDICATED IN\r\nSYNOPTIC AND SATELLITE DATA CENTERED NEAR MANZANILLO AND EXTENDING\r\nWESTWARD TO AT LEAST SOCORRO ISLAND. WITH SUCH DEEP MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL STEERING FLOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP ALETTA ON A GENERAL SLOW\r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD IN LINE WITH OUR\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND OUR PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS. \r\nTHE RADII OF 12 FT SEAS WERE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON 18Z\r\nSHIPS REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 15.0N 107.2W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.3N 107.7W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.5N 108.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.6N 109.1W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.7N 109.7W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.7N 110.7W    75 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-05-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU MAY 25 2000\r\n\r\nINFRARED IMAGES SHOW A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH CIRRUS-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED TO THE EAST...OVERALL THE\r\nSYSTEM APPEARS WELL-ORGANIZED.  USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WITH THE\r\nEMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90\r\nKNOTS WHICH WILL BE USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO\r\nHAVE SUCH A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EAST PACIFIC DURING THE\r\nMONTH OF MAY.  SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR TODAY BUT SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL GRADUALLY...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 280/07. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY\r\nMAXIMUM NEAR THE BAJA/U.S. BORDER WITH AN ACCOMPANYING TROUGH\r\nEXTENDED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES.  THIS FEATURE\r\nIS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA...SO THE STEERING\r\nCURRENT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nOUR COLLECTION OF TRACK PREDICTION MODELS IS NOT TERRIBLY USEFUL IN\r\nTHIS CASE...SINCE IT SHOWS POSSIBLE MOTIONS ANYWHERE FROM\r\nNORTHEASTWARD THROUGH WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND SHOWS A\r\nVERY SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 15.1N 107.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.4N 109.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 109.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N 110.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 111.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-05-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU MAY 25 2000\r\n \r\nTHE SHAPE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS 6 TO 12 HOUR\r\nAGO.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE AND THE DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES ARE NO LONGER\r\nCLEARLY OBSERVED. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR BUT RESTRICTED.\r\nHOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE STILL 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE\r\nCORRESPONDING TO 90 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO\r\nINTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS ALETTA APPROACHES COOL WATERS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON SHIPS MODEL WHICH INDICATE THAT SOME\r\nOF THE INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE...MAINLY FROM\r\nSST...BECOME NEGATIVE BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA NEW GUIDANCE PRODUCT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED...CALLED GUNS...WHICH IS\r\nAN ENSEMBLE OF THE OUTPUTS FROM THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. \r\nGUNS SUGGESTS THAT ALETTA WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE...LESS THAN 120 N MI\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSHOW A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT\r\nTHE TROUGH CURRENTLY OBSERVED ON WV IMAGES NEAR NORTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...WHICH IS PRESENTLY DISRUPTING THE STEERING FLOW WILL\r\nWEAKEN AND THEN BE REPLACED BY A HIGH.  BASED ON ALL OF THE ABOVE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS ALETTA ON A GENERAL SLOW WESTWARD TRACK\r\nWHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS CLIMATOLOGY BUT MUCH SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 15.0N 108.2W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 15.3N 108.8W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 109.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.7N 109.7W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 15.8N 110.2W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 111.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-05-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU MAY 25 2000\r\n \r\nSTRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH\r\nNORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE PRODUCED UNFAVORABLE SHEAR OVER\r\nALETTA.  LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS BECOMING EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A WEAKENING TREND MAY HAVE JUST\r\nBEGUN AND WE SHOULD GIVE CREDIT TO THE AVN AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH\r\nHAVE BEEN INDICATING SO DURING THE PAST DAY OR TWO.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES BUT DATA-T\r\nNUMBERS ARE ALREADY DECREASING.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED\r\nTO 85 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  BECAUSE THE SHEAR MAY RELAX AND THE OCEAN\r\nIS WARM...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE HURRICANE REGAINS STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.   FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS\r\nTHE HURRICANE WITH THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  SHIPS MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN\r\nALETTA TOO.\r\n  \r\nALETTA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO AND THE\r\nCENTER MAY BE A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS...LITTLE MOTION OR A SMALL\r\nWESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 15.0N 107.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 108.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 108.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 108.7W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-05-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU MAY 25 2000\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS.  THE 18Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN NEAR\r\nTHE HURRICANE AND NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A NORTHWARD\r\nDRIFT...THE NOGAPS IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND THE STATISTICAL\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL SHOWS A WESTWARD DRIFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT\r\nFOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE IS NO EYE FEATURE...A COLD CDO CONTINUES TO PERSIST. \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 14.8N 107.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 14.9N 108.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 15.2N 109.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 109.7W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-05-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI MAY 26 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NRL WEB PAGE AT 0402Z SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ALETTA IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF\r\nINCREASINGLY RAGGED DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT\r\nALETTA IS WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 90 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...WITH THE TAFB ESTIMATE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nCURRENT STRUCTURE AS REVEALED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nOVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  IF THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT...ALETTA WILL BE GRADUALLY APPROACHING\r\nCOOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND MAY BEGIN TO ENTRAIN MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nWEAKENING ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALETTA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS WIDELY DIVERGENT...AND COMPLICATED BY\r\nTHE SEEMINGLY OVER-AGRESSIVE SPIN-UP OF A NEW CYCLONE BEHIND ALETTA\r\nIN THE AVIATION MODEL.  THE LBAR AND UKMET INDICATE A RELATIVELY\r\nRAPID MOTION...GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF SAME...TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM\r\nSLOWLY BACK TO THE EAST FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NUDGES THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK TO THE RIGHT...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE\r\nGFDL...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SCENARIOS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE CURRENT\r\nASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION ABOUT THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 14.7N 107.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 14.7N 107.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.1N 108.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 15.5N 108.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-05-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI MAY 26 2000\r\n \r\nON IR AND EARLY VIS IMAGES...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nALETTA IS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP BUT RAGGED\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THERE\r\nARE NO BANDING FEATURES AND THE OUTFLOW IS DISRUPTED.  NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM.  NEVERTHELESS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nSUGGEST THAT ALETTA IS STILL A HURRICANE WITH WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS. \r\nEVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING WEAKENING...SOME\r\nMODELS FASTER THAN OTHERS.  THE AVN DISSIPATES ALETTA QUITE SOON\r\nWHILE DEVELOPING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY CLOSE BY.  THIS COULD\r\nBE THE REPRESENTATION OF ALETTA IN THE MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...BASED ON PERSISTENCE.   \r\n\r\nALETTA HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY.  MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED\r\nFROM PREVIOUS RUNS SO I DO NOT HAVE TO DISCUSS THEM AGAIN. ALETTA IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN ONCE A NEW\r\nHIGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED BY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 14.7N 107.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.7N 107.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 108.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 16.9N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Aletta","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-05-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI MAY 26 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE REDEVELOPING...SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ON A WEAKENING TREND.  BOTH SSMI\r\nAND TRMM CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 65 KNOTS AT\r\nTHIS TIME.      \r\n\r\nALETTA HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nAND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nA RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING ALETTA WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT.  THIS\r\nMOTION WOULD TAKE ALETTA CLOSER TO COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 14.9N 108.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 108.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 110.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-05-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI MAY 26 2000\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY...SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE CENTER OF ALETTA HAS BECOME EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\n60 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nIT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS MOVEMENT OR A BETTER CENTER POSITION.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS STATIONARY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nA MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS FORMED NORTH OF ALETTA...WHICH HAS\r\nCOLLAPSED THE STEERING CURRENTS. THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nHAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TROUGH...AND SUGGEST IT SHOULD BE REPLACED\r\nBY A RIDGE IN 36-48 HR. THIS WOULD ALLOW A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR NORTHWEST. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE UKMET AND NOGAPS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDL\r\nTRACKS ALETTA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY\r\nGIVEN THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO\r\nCURRENT INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEARING UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE NOT WELL HANDLED IN THE\r\nMODELS...WITH THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOWING LESS FLOW\r\nAFFECTING ALETTA THAN INDICATED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THESE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HR... WHICH\r\nWOULD ALLOW ALETTA TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OR PERHAPS RE-INTENSIFY.  THE\r\nAVN-BASED SHIPS MODEL FOLLOWS THIS IDEA AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH FOR 48 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTHROUGH 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS ALETTA MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE AVN MERGES ALETTA WITH A NEW CYCLONE\r\nFORMING TO THE EAST. WHILE THIS COULD HAPPEN EVENTUALLY...THE\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS STILL POORLY\r\nORGANIZED.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 15.0N 107.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 15.4N 107.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 15.7N 108.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 108.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 109.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 17.0N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-05-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2000\r\n \r\nWERE IT NOT FOR MICROWAVE SSMI IMAGERY THE LOCATION OF ALETTA WOULD\r\nBE A COMPLETE MYSTERY TONIGHT...HOWEVER...THE OVERPASS AT 0349Z\r\nINDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND HAS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN.  THERE IS NO LONGER ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND IN FACT...ONLY THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOW THE SYSTEM\r\nTO BE CLASSIFIABLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT WITH\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE COVERS THE ENTIRE COMPASS...WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nP91E SHOWING A SOUTHEAST TRACK...THE SHALLOW BAM SOUTHWEST...THE\r\nGFDL NORTHEAST...AND THE REMAINING MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...INDICATING A NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD\r\nTHE BEST HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE GFDL AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATER IN THE PERIOD THE FORECAST TRACK TURNS\r\nBACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE FORECAST\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nIN SPITE OF THE RAPID WEAKENING OF ALETTA TODAY...30 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL SHOWS ONLY MODEST\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING...AND IN FACT INDICATES SOME RESTRENGTHENING\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...THE AVN SEEMS TO BE TOO\r\nAGGRESSIVE WITH THE SPIN-UP OF THE SYSTEM BEHIND ALETTA...AND SO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL INPUTS TO SHIPS MAY BE QUESTIONABLE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT BUY THE REINTENSIFICATION...AND IF\r\nALETTA CANNOT REGENERATE ANY CONVECTION IT WILL DISSIPATE SOONER\r\nRATHER THAN LATER. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 15.3N 107.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 15.6N 107.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.1N 107.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N 107.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-05-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2000\r\n \r\nALETTA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nREDUCED TO 30 KNOTS.  AVN GLOBAL MODEL DID A GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nAT THIS POINT TRACK MODELS ARE USELESS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MEANDER FOR A WHILE UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 15.5N 107.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.7N 107.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 108.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-05-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2000\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH\r\nINTERMITTENT CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER.   THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...THESE EASTERN PACIFIC SWIRLS OF LOW CLOUDS...\r\nREMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES...GENERALLY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS\r\nPRODUCING SPORADIC SHOWERS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 15.5N 107.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.5N 107.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-05-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2000\r\n\r\nALETTA REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION. THE LACK OF CONVECTION IS PUZZLING GIVEN THAT VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT\r\n27C. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING NORTH TOWARD COOLER WATER...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IT\r\nMAY BE A FEW DAYS BEFORE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION COMPLETELY\r\nDISAPPEARS. \r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ALETTA. FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANTS OF ALETTA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 16.2N 107.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.6N 107.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-06-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 13 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1200Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP KAOU INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF\r\nCABO SAN LUCAS HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS BROAD...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE OVERALL CIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS IMPROVING. CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 1.5\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE 25 KT/1002 MB SHIP REPORT NORTH OF\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER.\r\n\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF\r\nOUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN REMAINING\r\nSTEADY THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER\r\nSSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 14.7N 107.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.3N 109.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-06-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 13 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BEEN TRACKING AT 290/07 THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BASED\r\nON EARLIER SSMI AND TRMM IMAGES...AND VISIBLE ANIMATIONS. THESE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK BASED ON THE UW-CIMMS WATER VAPOR WINDS INDICATING A\r\nDEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH/RIDGE EXTENDING E-W ALONG 35N LATITUDE.\r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR OBJECTIVE FORECAST\r\nGUIDANCE. THE UKMET DRIFTS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER 48\r\nHOURS WHEREAS THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM DUE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\nWITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WE FEEL THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL MOVE MORE TO THE WEST THAN NORTH. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAKENING STEERING\r\nCURRENTS.\r\n\r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED BASED ON HIGH CLOUD\r\nMOTIONS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DO NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO BE VERTICALLY ALIGNED DUE TO SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AS\r\nA RESULT...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND THEN REMAINING STEADY OR A SLIGHT DECREASE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS. THIS IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 14.8N 108.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.3N 109.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-06-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUN 13 2000\r\n \r\nA REPORT OF 40 KNOTS AND 1001 MB FROM THE SHIP KAOU...ALONG WITH A\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES OF STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB AND KGWC...AND SOME\r\nQUICKSCAT WINDS OF 35 KNOTS EARLIER TODAY...ARE THE BASIS FOR\r\nUPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 40 KNOT WINDS.  WITH\r\nTHE RECENT APPEARANCE OF A COLD CDO FEATURE AND NO ADVERSE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO 60 KNOTS IN\r\n24 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY AFTER\r\n24 HOURS AND THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND\r\nSPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO THE FORECAST STRENGHTENING IS\r\nLIMITED TO 60 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08.  THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED...BUT THE GFDL AND UKMET SLOW THE STORM CONSIDERABLY WITH A\r\nSLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nLEFT OF...BUT SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A MOSTLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND SOME DECELERATION.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHIP KAOU WAS ABOUT 12O N MI NORTHEAST OF THE STORM CENTER AT\r\nTHE TIME OF THE REPORT DESCRIBED ABOVE AND THE 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS\r\nIS PUT AT 150 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 14.8N 109.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.9N 110.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.7N 112.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.4N 113.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 114.3W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-06-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUN 14 2000\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION\r\nIS ASSOCIATED WITH A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST.  AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nTAFB...SAB AND KGWC T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN AT 40\r\nKNOTS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON I IMAGES BUT\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED ON CONTINUITY IS\r\n290/08. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A\r\nLITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE CONVECTION.    \r\n\r\nTHERE IS DILEMMA. RELIABLE AND HARD TO IGNORE UK...GFDL AND GFDN\r\nMODELS...TURN BUD NORTHWARD AND EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE 500 MB\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL THREAT TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  HOWEVER THE BAM AND THE AVN MODELS INDICATE A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK...AWAY FROM MEXICO...BASED ON\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF A STRONGER AND A MORE PERSISTENT RIDGE FORECAST BY\r\nTHE AVN.  THIS CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS WHICH ARE GOOD PERFORMERS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. \r\nAT THIS TIME...BECAUSE OF THE UK AND GFDL AND GFDN SOLUTION...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND SLOWS BUD DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nIF THIS FORECAST TRACK MATERIALIZES...BUD WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS AND WEAKENING COULD BEGIN.   A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK WOULD DELAY ANY WEAKENING. SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS ONLY A MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT IT IS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WHICH\r\nKEPT BUD OVER WARMER WATERS.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 15.3N 109.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.8N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-06-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUN 14 2000\r\n \r\nSSMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NRL WEB PAGE SEVERAL HOURS AGO\r\nSHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF BUD WAS CONSIDERABLY NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  THE CENTER IS HARD TO PINPOINT ON IR\r\nIMAGERY...BUT THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING ALSO\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK OVERNIGHT.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7...\r\nBUT VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WILL PROBABLY SHOW\r\nTHAT THE TRACK IS EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THAT. \r\n\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECIDEDLY AMBIVALENT...WITH THE BAMS AND\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE BASED ON THE AVN...SHOWING A TURN\r\nTOWARDS THE WEST.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL RUN OFF THE NOGAPS FIELDS AND\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL INDICATE A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM AND A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST.  THE LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE CURRENT MOTION.  BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BUD THAT HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WESTWARD\r\nSTEERING CURRENT...THE UKMET MORE SO.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE\r\nIS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOT PRESENT IN THE AVN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FAVORS THE GFDL/UKMET SOLUTION AND IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS MORNING FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0...CORRESPONDING TO 45 KT...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY OF BUD IS INCREASED ON THIS BASIS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS...BUT NOT TO HURRICANE STATUS.  BY THEN...BUD WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DECAY.  EVEN WITH THE\r\nFORECAST TURN BACK TO THE EAST...THERE IS NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 15.7N 109.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 111.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.7N 111.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-06-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUN 14 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TRACK THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PASSES.  A LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAPPEARED TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nEARLIER...BUT MORE RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW AND MID-\r\nLEVEL CENTERS ARE REASONABLY CO-LOCATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 325/8...AND AS SUGGESTED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION...THE LAST TWO ADVISORY POSITIONS WERE IN FACT TOO FAR TO\r\nTHE WEST.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED AT THIS TIME AND THE SYSTEM IS STILL EXPERIENCING SOME\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BUD ENCOUNTERS COOLER\r\nWATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL SPLIT.  THE UKMET SHOWS A SHARP TURN BACK TO\r\nTHE EAST...AND THE BAMS AND STATISTICAL MODELS HAVE A STRONG\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.  THE GFDL IS IN THE MIDDLE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN\r\nBOTH THE AVN AND UKMET...WITH THE DIFFERENCE BEING IN THE FORECAST\r\nFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE TROPICAL STORM VERY CLOSE TO SOCORRO\r\nISLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 17.2N 110.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 110.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.9N 111.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 111.6W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-06-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUN 14 2000\r\n \r\nBUD HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HR...\r\nWITH MOST DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE\r\n45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY. THUS...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TRACK...AND THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 330/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nSTRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF BUD...WHILE LARGE-SCALE MODEL\r\nANALYSES SUGGEST SOME WEAKNESS AT THE LOWER LEVELS. THE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 72\r\nHR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW BUD TO SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY TURN NORTHWARD.\r\nTRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.\r\nTHE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 24 TO 36 HR.\r\nTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS. THE GFDL CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE EAST. THE UKMET TURNS THE\r\nCYCLONE EASTWARD AFTER 36 HR. THE GFDN FORECAST AGREES BEST WITH THE\r\nSYNOPTIC SITUATION ...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES BEST WITH IT.\r\nTHE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...BUD SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS\r\nFOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING. GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER\r\nLEVEL ENVIRONMENT...BUD IS LIKELY TO HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN\r\nNORMAL OVER THE COLDER WATER. HENCE...THIS FORECAST DOES NOT CALL\r\nFOR DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE TROPICAL STORM VERY CLOSE TO SOCORRO\r\nISLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 17.9N 110.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.7N 111.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.3N 111.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 111.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-06-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUN 15 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BUD IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY NEAR\r\nSOCORRO ISLAND BUT NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED SINCE 0300 UTC\r\nFROM THAT SITE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY  REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS OR 3.0\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES JUST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE GRADUALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY AN\r\nEXCELLENT PASS OF THE TRMM SATELLITE AT 0536 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 BUT THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS INDICATED BY THE UK... GFDL AND\r\nGFDN MODELS.  THESE MODELS BASICALLY KEEP A WEAKENING BUD MEANDERING\r\nAS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE BEGINNING\r\nOF A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE BUD IS ALREADY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY SHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 18.7N 110.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 110.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-06-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 15 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND. THE\r\n00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATION FROM SOCORRO ISLAND IMPLIED A SURFACE\r\nPRESSURE OF 1000 MB WITH THE CENTER 90 NM AWAY. AS A RESULT OF\r\nTHIS...THE ADVISORY PRESSURE IS LOWERED TO 995 MB. THIS DOES NOT\r\nREPRESENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 45 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/6. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nDIVERGENCE AMONG THE DYNAMIC MODELS WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL\r\nINDICATING LITTLE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE BAM MODELS\r\nCONTINUING TO SHOW NW TO W MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nTRACK IS FORECAST BASED ON SHALLOW LAYER STEERING AS THE CONVECTION\r\nWEAKENS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 19.1N 110.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 110.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 111.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 111.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    25 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-06-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 15 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/06...AND\r\nWEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nCONSIDERABLY AND CONVECTION IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE EAST\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE REMAINS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTING LITTLE MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WHILE THE\r\nBAM MODELS INDICATING A FASTER MOTION TO THE NW AND W. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...\r\nBASED ON SYNOPTIC DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS SHOWING THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER COOLER SSTS AND ALSO ENTRAIN MORE COOL STABLE AIR ON THE WEST\r\nSIDE AS SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.  DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT\r\nMAY OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 19.5N 111.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.9N 111.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N 111.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.1N 111.8W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-06-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 15 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT EAST OF THE CENTER OF BUD OVER THE\r\nPAST SIX HR EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS OVER 24C-25C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA ARE 45\r\nKT...35 KT...AND 35 KT. WITH THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE...THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 330/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nBROAD TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S....WITH RIDGING OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH AND BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND\r\nBUD. LARGE SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD STAY NORTH OF\r\nBUD...WITH WEAK RIDGING REMAINING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. THIS IN\r\nTHEORY SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN. DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT...THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT. THE NHC91...BAMD...AND LBAR\r\nCALL FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. THE BAMM...\r\nBAMS...AND AVN TURN BUD WESTWARD AFTER 24 HR...WHILE THE GFDL...\r\nGFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET CALL FOR ERRATIC MOTION NEAR THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW TURN TO THE WEST\r\nAND SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WESTWARD-\r\nMOVING MODELS AND THE ERRATIC MOTION MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE...AND IF BUD WERE OVER\r\nWARMER WATER IT WOULD PROBABLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. SINCE IT\r\nIS OVER COLD WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED SLOW\r\nWEAKENING. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 48 TO 72 HR...BUT IT COULD\r\nOCCUR SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE RADII OF 12 FT SEAS HAS BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF SHIP\r\nREPORTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 20.0N 111.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 112.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N 112.8W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-06-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE FEW\r\nPATCHES OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WHILE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS BUT SOME GUSTS TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE MAY STILL OCCUR TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nWITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. BECAUSE BUD IS OVER COOL WATER...A\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN\r\n36 HOURS OR LESS.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS WEAKEN BUD\r\nRAPIDLY.  BUT AS USUAL...THESE SWIRLS OF LOW CLOUDS...REMNANTS OF\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES...COULD LINGER FOR DAYS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT\r\nCONVECTION. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BUT ONCE\r\nIT BECOMES COMPLETELY EXPOSED...IT MAY BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WEST AND\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BUD MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 20.2N 111.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N 111.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 112.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.2N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-06-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000\r\n\r\nBUD NOW HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DEVOID OF\r\nANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE\r\nINTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY BASED ON THIS SYSTEMS LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY OR A SLIGHT WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST DRIFT.\r\n\r\nALL OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE...EXCEPT LBAR...INDICATE A TRACK TO THE\r\nWEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING THE BEST\r\nIN KEEPING THE FORWARD SPEED LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT\r\nTREND AND IS CLOSEST TO THE UKMET AND AVN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST AND PHILOSOPHY.\r\n \r\nSLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BASED ON\r\nTHE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. SOME COLD\r\nUPWELLING HAS LIKELY OCCURRED WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER IN THE\r\nDIRECTION BUD IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS WHICH COULD HASTEN THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS MORESO THAN WE ARE INDICATING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL AND UKMET MODEL BOTH DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 19.9N 111.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.7N 111.6W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.4N 111.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.1N 111.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-06-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000\r\n\r\nBUD HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nAND IS MAINLY A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO\r\nCONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FULLY EXPOSED CENTER. BUD HAS\r\nREMAINED ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT WE ARE\r\nINDICATING A SLIGHT DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. INITIAL INTENSITY WAS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON A 1327Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nINDICATING 30 KT IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING AS BUD IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDRIFT IN A GENERAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...GFDL...AVN AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nCONTINUED SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THERE IS NO\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. HOWEVER...OWING TO THE LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR BUD TO WIND DOWN.\r\nDISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND IN 24 HOURS BY THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n\r\n12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCLUDED BASED ON 10 FT SWELLS AND 14 FT\r\nCOMBINED SEAS BY SHIP 4XGT AT 12Z ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND THE 30 KT QUIKSCAT WINDS TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 19.7N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 111.3W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.1N 111.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 18.7N 111.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-06-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 16 2000\r\n \r\nBUD CONTINUES TO HAVE NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND THE COLDEST\r\nREMAINING CLOUD TOPS ARE TO THE NORTH NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT...AND SO ARE\r\nREPORTED WINDS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND AND SHIP C6LF9. THUS... 25 KT ARE\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE SOCORRO ISLAND PRESSURE IS\r\n1000.3 MB...INDICATING A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 998 MB...WHICH IS\r\nSOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 105/3. A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HAS\r\nAPPARENTLY DUG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. THE\r\nSTILL-DIVERGENT TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUD SHOULD START\r\nMOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nLIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT HAPPENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD DRIFT BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nWITH NO DEEP CONVECTION AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUD WILL\r\nLIKELY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE\r\nRESIDUAL LARGE CIRCULATION MAY PRODUCE 20-25 KT WINDS FOR A DAY OR\r\nTWO MORE.\r\n  \r\n12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCLUDED BASED ON REPORTS OF 13 FT COMBINED\r\nSEAS FROM SHIPS C6LF9 AND 4XGT EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N 110.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.8N 110.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-06-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 17 2000\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A MEANDERING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  THERE IS NOT MUCH LEFT AND THE WEAKENING\r\nPROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE.  HOWEVER...WE WILL RATHER KEEP THE SYSTEM\r\nAS A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME AND WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGES DURING THE\r\nDAY TO ISSUE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNO CHANGE IN THE 12 FT SEAS RADII IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 20.0N 110.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 110.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-06-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 17 2000\r\n \r\nALL THAT REMAINS OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THE SYSTEM TO BE TOO WEAK TO\r\nCLASSIFY AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN APPROXIMATELY STATIONARY AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL\r\nMOVEMENT IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 20.2N 110.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N 110.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.2N 110.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-06-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUN 18 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF\r\nTHE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY\r\nWITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FORMING.  SOME SHIPS IN THE AREA ALSO CONFIRM\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE SHIP 4XGT REPORTED 35\r\nKNOTS AT 18Z ABOUT 50 MILES NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THIS MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH AS THE ACCOMPANYING SEA HEIGHT OF\r\n26 FEET IS SUSPICIOUS.  SO THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A DEPRESSION BUT\r\nFORECAST TO A STORM IN 12 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM\r\nTO A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS BUT THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A MUCH\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM AS THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE WITHIN ABOUT 75 MILES\r\nOF THE COAST AND THIS COULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES THE SAME.  THE TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 12.7N  94.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 13.4N  95.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.3N  96.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N  98.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.7N  99.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-06-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUN 18 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABUNDANT NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  GIVEN THIS...AND THE 35 KT SHIP\r\nREPORT EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO STORM\r\nSTATUS AT 00Z.  THE CONVECTION...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN LOCATED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE CENTER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...\r\nHAS NOW WORKED ITS WAY TO THE EAST SIDE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 40 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...\r\nWHICH WERE LIMITED BY THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/10...WHICH IS FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CARLOTTA WILL\r\nSOON BE COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH THAT SHOULD DEFLECT THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  HOW\r\nSOON THIS OCCURS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS TO\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT ON A TRACK\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST FROM 30 TO 120 MILES OFFSHORE.  THE\r\nGFDL IS THE CLOSEST TO LAND BUT APPEARS TO HAVE DIFFICULTY\r\nMAINTAINING THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SPLIT THIS EVENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS\r\nCARLOTTA TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE NOT\r\nIMPRESSED.  OUTFLOW APPEARS LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SIDE AT THIS\r\nTIME.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO THAT COULD LIMIT OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NOT AS AGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 13.2N  95.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.0N  96.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.8N  98.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 15.6N 100.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 105.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-06-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUN 19 2000\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THIS MORNING...\r\nWITH STRONG CONVECTION (TOPS TO -88C) THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE\r\nNORMAL DIURNAL MINIMUM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...\r\nBUT ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED BY CONSTRAINTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE SET TO 45 KT. IT IS NOTABLE...AND A LITTLE STRANGE...THAT SHIP\r\nKGJD LOCATED ABOUT 80 NM NNW OF THE CENTER REPORTED WEST WINDS 11 KT\r\nAT 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST\r\nBY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THIS WOULD STEER CARLOTTA ON A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY QUESTION BEING HOW\r\nCLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST WILL THE STORM COME. THE GFDL FORECASTS A\r\nCLOSE APPROACH TO THE COAST...WHILE THE UKMET STAYS FURTHER\r\nOFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nEXTREMES...TRACKING ABOUT 75 NM FROM THE COAST. IT IS ALSO VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH ALL\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTING CARLOTTA TO BE A HURRICANE IN 24 HR OR LESS.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODELS FORECASTS A 90 KT SYSTEM BY 72 HR. GIVEN THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS AND THE FAVORABLE EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL\r\nWINDS FORECAST BY THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE\r\nCARLOTTA COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EVEN SHIPS FORECASTS...IF THE\r\nCYCLONE DOES NOT GET TOO TANGLED UP WITH THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nWESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO. THEY HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH IN\r\nCASE CARLOTTA COMES CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 13.6N  96.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.4N  97.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N  99.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.9N 101.1W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 106.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-06-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUN 19 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/11.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nUNANIMOUSLY KEEPS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE 06Z AVIATION\r\nMODEL SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS AT 500 MB IN THE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS RESPOND BY BRINGING THE\r\nCENTER RIGHT TO THE COAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS\r\nTHE CENTER OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO THE COAST TO REQUIRE THE HURRICANE WATCH...WHICH COULD BE\r\nCHANGED TO A WARNING IF CARLOTTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.\r\n\r\nTAFB AND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS DUE TO DVORAK\r\nRESTRAINTS WHILE KGWC GIVES 55 KNOTS.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED\r\nTO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF AN IMPRESSIVE CDO AND AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE TO THE ABOVE ESTIMATES.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE\r\nINTENSITY TO 87 KNOTS AT 60 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nARE NOT NEARLY AS STRONG.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 80 KNOTS BY\r\n48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 14.1N  97.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 14.8N  98.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 15.9N 100.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.6N 102.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.2N 103.9W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N 107.6W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-06-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUN 19 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA HAS STRENGTHENED AND ACCELERATED DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT\r\nCLOSER TO 16 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE\r\nHAS APPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR\r\nBRINGING THE INTENSITY UP TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA HAS TURNED MORE WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND NONE OF OUR\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER LAND ANY LONGER. THE GFDL HAS\r\nHAD A RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...PROBABLY DUE TO A BOGUS LOW THE AVN\r\nMODEL THAT DEVELOPS ABOUT 10 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF CARLOTTA. NONE OF\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS HAVE THIS FEATURE.  THE UKMET HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN\r\nTHE BEST PERFORMING MODEL AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT SCENARIO CLOSELY\r\nGIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OVER\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nTAFB AND KGWC SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.5 AND LATEST\r\nINFRARED IMAGES SHOW TWO WELL-DEFINED COLD OVERSHOOTING TOPS ON\r\nEITHER SIDE OF THE EYE FEATURE. THIS PATTERN OFTEN INDICATES THE\r\nONSET OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND WE HAVE TAKEN THE INTENSITY UP TO\r\n90 KT IN 36 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\nHOWEVER...100 KT IN 24 HOURS WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. AFTER 36 HOURS...ALL\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY 200 MB WINDS\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME SHEAR ON CARLOTTA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nIN A GENERAL LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALSO...THE 34-KT WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nINCREASED BASED ON 18Z OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS KAOU AND KGJD...AND A\r\n1551Z GALE RADIUS SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM KGWC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 14.4N  99.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N 101.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.3N 105.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W    85 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-06-20 00:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM PDT MON JUN 19 2000\r\n\r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE CARLOTTA TO A HURRICANE.  THE\r\nUPGRADE IS BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF A RAGGED EYE ON VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A KGWC CLASSIFICATION OF\r\n65 KT AT 2215Z.\r\n\r\nMINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOSITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0000Z 14.2N  99.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.7N 103.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.3N 105.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-06-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 19 2000\r\n \r\nTHE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE COULD BE SEEN ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...AND A WARM SPOT HAS BEEN GENERALLY PRESENT ON IR\r\nIMAGERY SINCE THEN.  DEEP CONVECTION DECREASED MARKEDLY IN AREAL\r\nCOVERAGE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAS STABILIZED OF LATE.  OUTFLOW\r\nIS EXCELLENT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT LIMITED TO THE NORTH. \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 65 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED FLUCTUATED SOME THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A\r\nREPRESENTATIVE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11.  THIS MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS LESSENING THE THREAT TO MEXICO...AND RAINFALL\r\nASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA IS MOSTLY OFFSHORE.  THE UKMET GLOBAL MODEL\r\nSHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL THE NORMALLY RELIABLE\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...KEEPS THE HURRICANE\r\nSAFELY OFFSHORE.  THE GFDL INDICATES A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nBUT IT HAS NOT BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER ON THIS STORM SO FAR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA HAS STRENGTHENED 30 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AT\r\nNEARLY THIS PACE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  WITH A CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nLESS VIGOROUS THAN 24 HOURS AGO...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THIS PACE\r\nCAN BE MAINTAINED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS\r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 14.4N  99.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.6N 101.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 103.3W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 105.2W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-06-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE\r\nAND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THERE IS A PERSISTENT\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA ARE 77 KT...77 KT...AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS\r\nNOTABLE THAT MOST IMAGES FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT ACAPULCO HAVE\r\nSHOWN ONLY 50-60% OF AN EYEWALL AROUND THE EYE DURING THE NIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/11. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR MAZATLAN MEXICO AND A\r\nTROUGH N OF 20N BETWEEN 115W-120W. LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THESE\r\nFEATURES SHOULD PERSIST TO SOME DEGREE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW CARLOTTA TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION. DESPITE THE AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT. WHILE MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE GFDL...\r\nGFDN...AND AVN MOVE THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFDL IS THE\r\nEXTREME OUTLIER...MOVING THE SYSTEM NEAR CABO CORRIENTES AND THEN\r\nINTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH AND THE CURRENT TRENDS...THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NHC91.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT\r\nCOMBINED WITH INCREASED CONVECTION FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR 100 KT IN 24 HR. WHILE THAT IS POSSIBLE...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A MORE CONSERVATIVE 90 KT. BY 36\r\nHR...CARLOTTA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER IN THE SAME GENERAL\r\nAREA WHERE ALETTA AND BUD DIED. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN\r\nAROUND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE MEXICAN COAST IS DISCONTINUED AT THIS\r\nTIME. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 14.3N 100.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.6N 102.6W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 106.4W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 108.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-06-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND NOW HAS A 6-7 NM\r\nDIAMETER EYE AS INDICATED BY A 1055Z TRMM DATA. DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE. OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT\r\nONLY FAIR TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR\r\nDATA INDICATE A LARGE HIGH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE OVER\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nCARLOTTA. THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS LOWS ROTATING AROUND THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF CARLOTTA. THEREFORE...WE HAVE GIVEN LESS WEIGHT TO\r\nTHOSE MODELS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS SYSTEM\r\nQUITE WELL OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE UKMET\r\nCLOSELY...ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPRESENCE OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT WARM HIGH OVER MEXICO.  \r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO UNDERGO RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR\r\nANOTHER 12-24 HOURS AND THEN LEVEL OFF AFTER THAT. THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIS FORECASTING 105 KT IN 24 HOURS WHICH IS NOT UNREASONABLE. AFTER\r\n36 HOURS...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATER LEFT IN\r\nTHE WAKE OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM BUD. AS A RESULT...STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 14.8N 102.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.2N 103.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.8N 105.7W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 107.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 112.0W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-06-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 977 MB AND MAX FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 87 KT. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWN ACCORDINGLY. EYE DIAMETER IS NOW 17-18 NM AND OPEN TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nIMPROVING TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE LARGE RIDGE\r\nOVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO CHANGE\r\nLITTLE. THE GFDL MODEL REMAINS THE LONE OUTLIER WHEREAS THE UKMET\r\nAND OUR OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS TAKE CARLOTTA ON A GENERAL WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 12Z UKMET RUN.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS WELL\r\nORGANIZED AND BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT CARLOTTA COULD STILL INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nAPPROACHING COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE TREND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 15.0N 102.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.2N 103.9W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.7N 105.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.2N 106.8W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 109.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N 113.0W    70 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-06-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUN 20 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA IS A MOVING TARGET THIS EVENING AS THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN AMAZING RATE.  THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIRST ENTERED THE HURRICANE AT 19Z...AND\r\nFOUND A 977 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE WITH ABOUT 80 KT OF SURFACE WIND. \r\nOVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB AND\r\nTHE SURFACE WINDS INCREASED TO AT LEAST 95 KT.  INTERESTINGLY...\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT THE TIME OF THE FIRST RECON FIX\r\nWERE ABOUT 20 KT TOO HIGH.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE.  AT 00Z...THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE A CONSENSUS 115 KT.  HOWEVER...THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE HAS BEEN GIVING AN ESTIMATE OF\r\nABOUT 135 KT FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nTHIS MAKES CARLOTTA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON\r\nSCALE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL SUGGESTS THAT CARLOTTA\r\nHAS SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING TO DO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nLITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE UKMET AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 15.2N 103.4W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.4N 104.8W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 106.5W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.3N 108.4W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 114.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-06-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUN 21 2000\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY...WITH A WELL-DEFINED COLD CDO\r\nAROUND A 15-20 NM WIDE EYE. EXACTLY HOW STRONG IT IS REMAINS A\r\nPROBLEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...INCLUDING THE OBJECTIVE\r\nTECHNIQUE FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...ARE ALL NEAR 140 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...THESE ESTIMATES WERE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ASSUMING THIS IS STILL\r\nTHE CASE...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 130 KT.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nEITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST\r\n24 HR. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD\r\nSTEER CARLOTTA GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL CALLS\r\nFOR AN UNLIKELY TRACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH HAS DONE A GOOD JOB ON CARLOTTA SO FAR.\r\n\r\nDURING THE LAST HR OR SO...THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT WARMING OF THE\r\nCLOUD TOPS...COOLING OF THE EYE...AND DECREASE IN THE OBJECTIVE T-\r\nNUMBERS FROM 7.2 TO 6.8. THIS SUGGESTS THAT CARLOTTA MAY BE PEAKING.\r\nU.S. NAVY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE THE WEST EDGE OF\r\n28C OR WARMER WATER IS NEAR 105W...AND CARLOTTA MAY BE FEELING THE\r\nNEARBY COLDER WATER. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY\r\nFAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN\r\nTHE FIRST 12 HR...IF FOR NO OTHER REASON THAN THE WINDS CATCHING UP\r\nWITH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. AFTER THAT...PROGRESSIVELY COLDER\r\nWATER SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A TIGHT WIND FIELD WITH SMALL 34 KT\r\nWIND RADII...TWO SHIPS 250 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ARE\r\nREPORTING 30 KT WINDS...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES OUTER BANDS\r\nFORMING IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE. THUS THERE IS A CHANCE THE WIND\r\nFIELD IS SPREADING OUT. HOPEFULLY A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 13Z WILL\r\nSHED MORE LIGHT ON THIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 15.1N 104.2W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.3N 105.5W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 16.4N 109.1W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 115.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-06-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUN 21 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nCONTINUE AROUND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE SUBJECTIVE NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB AND GLOBAL ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE.  THE EYE IS\r\nSTILL SHARP ON VISIBLE IMAGES BUT THE SURROUNDING RING OF\r\nCONVECTION...WHITE ON THE BD CURVE...IS GRADUALLY SHRINKING.\r\nCARLOTTA CONTINUES AS A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 130 KNOTS BUT\r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  THEREAFTER...COOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE STORM IS THE ONLY\r\nAPPARENT INHIBITING FACTOR...ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  OTHER\r\nFACTORS FOR INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS SUCH AS INNER CORE STRUCTURE\r\nCHANGES...ARE NOT EASY TO EVALUATE AND MUCH LESS TO FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN BASICALLY 280/08...LIKE MOST OF THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG WARM HIGH OVER MEXICO.\r\nONCE AGAIN...THE UK MODEL HAS BEEN OUTSTANDING AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF IT.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE THE\r\nOUTLIER...TURNING CARLOTTA NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nBANDS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA AND HIGH WAVES\r\nARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST.\r\nTHESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 15.6N 105.1W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 106.3W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.3N 108.0W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 110.0W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 112.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 117.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-06-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUN 21 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WHILE ITS\r\nSURROUNDING RING OF CONVECTION IS WARMING AND ERODING. CONSEQUENTLY\r\nALL T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 125 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AS CARLOTTA APPROACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A WARM HIGH OVER MEXICO WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   ONCE AGAIN...THE GFDL \r\n1200Z RUN SHARPLY TURNS CARLOTTA NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nBUT THAT IS NOT THE CASE WITH THE GFDN...WHICH RUNS OFF THE NOGAPS\r\nANALYSIS.  THE LATTER SUGGESTS A TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST BUT STILL TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS.  \r\n \r\nHIGH WAVES AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA\r\nARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST.\r\nTHESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 15.8N 105.6W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 106.7W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 108.2W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 117.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-06-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUN 21 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS BECOMING A LITTLE HARDER TO FOLLOW...AND THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFIGHTING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAD FALLEN TO 115 KT AT 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN A BIT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE COOLER WATERS THAT WILL BE ENCOUNTERED BY\r\nTHEN WILL DOMINATE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW 290/7.  THE UKMET\r\nHINTS AT A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF CARLOTTA...ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-STRENGTHEN\r\nOVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CLOSELY\r\nCLUSTERED THIS EVENING...WITH THE NAVY AND AVN-BASED GFDLS STARTING\r\nTO COME IN LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF...AND SLOWER THAN...THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSHIP DGOS...190 NM NORTHEAST OF CARLOTTA...REPORTED 34 KT WINDS AT\r\n00Z.  THIS SHIP WAS IN OR NEAR A CONVECTIVE CELL AND I AM NOT QUITE\r\nREADY TO ACCEPT THIS OB AS REPRESENTATIVE...WHICH IF TRUE WOULD\r\nPLACE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS 20 MILES OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...HIGH\r\nWAVES AND BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS FROM THE PERIPHERY OF CARLOTTA ARE\r\nSTILL AFFECTING A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST.  THESE\r\nCONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 16.0N 106.4W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.4N 107.4W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.1N 111.1W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-06-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUN 22 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 290/07.  MOST ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS WITH SOME ACCELERATION OF FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE GFDN AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS AS THE HURRICANE\r\nAPPROACHES A TROUGH JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WEAKEN THE HURRICANE TO 100 KNOTS BY 06Z\r\nAND THE SHIFOR MODEL DROPS THE WIND SPEED TO 37 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS AS\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nBASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIFOR MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KNOT RADII ARE DECREASED SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON SCATTEROMETER DATA.  THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS ARE ALSO\r\nDECREASED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT NEAR THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 16.4N 107.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 111.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 22.5N 117.5W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-06-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 22 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND TRMM SENSOR DATA SHOW THAT THE EYE OF CARLOTTA\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND IS SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. IN FACT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS BETTER THAN 6\r\nHOURS AGO. BECAUSE THE T-NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THIS\r\nMORNING...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS.  SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS\r\nTOWARD WEAKENING AS CARLOTTA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.   \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nOVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE STRUCTURE\r\nAND LOCATION OF THIS HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE\r\n...CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME TRACK THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  ONLY THE GFDL AND THE GFDN SHOW A TRACK MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CORE OF CARLOTTA FAR ENOUGH\r\nFROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nFORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nCARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 16.9N 107.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.3N 109.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N 111.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 117.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-06-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 22 2000\r\n \r\nAS EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING DURING THE DAY AND\r\nIT IS NOW 95 KNOTS.  THE WHITE COLD RING ON THE BD DVORAK CURVE THAT\r\nWAS SURROUNDING THE FILLING EYE IS PRACTICALLY GONE. BECAUSE THERE\r\nARE STILL A FEW HOURS BEFORE CARLOTTA REACHES COOLER WATERS...SOME\r\nADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BUT...THE GENERAL\r\nTREND IS TOWARD WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK...310/8...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nA MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO.  MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE STRUCTURE AND LOCATION OF THIS HIGH\r\nWILL NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GDFL/AVN\r\nDERIVED TRACKS CONTINUE A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN\r\nENSEMBLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WORST OF ALL APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nMM5....WHICH MOVES CARLOTTA SOUTHWARD.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CORE OF CARLOTTA FAR ENOUGH\r\nFROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nFORECAST...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nCARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 17.5N 108.3W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.3N 109.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.3N 110.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-06-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 22 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING TODAY.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT ONES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z.  SINCE THEN...COLD\r\nTOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO ERODE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT. \r\nTHEREFORE WE WILL HOLD THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 95 KT.  CARLOTTA IS\r\nBEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND FUTURE FLUCTUATIONS SHOULD\r\nBE EXCLUSIVELY DOWNWARD.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED A BIT...AND IS 305/10 OVER THE LAST\r\n12 HOURS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSING VERY CLOSE\r\nTO SOCORRO DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND AVN DIFFER\r\nON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nCARLOTTA...WITH THE UKMET ERODING THE RIDGE AND THE AVN BUILDING IT.\r\nIF THE UKMET FORECAST VERIFIES...CARLOTTA COULD COME WITHIN ABOUT\r\n100-150 MILES OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SCATTEROMETER DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT CARLOTTA REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH\r\nTHE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT CONSIDERED\r\nNECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 18.2N 109.2W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N 111.9W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 22.1N 113.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.5N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-06-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10.  A 500 MB LOW NEAR\r\nCALIFORNIA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD IS CAUSING MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS TO MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS\r\nTHE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODELS BRINGING THE CENTER ACROSS\r\nCENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET REMAINS WELL\r\nOFFSHORE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER 48\r\nHOURS.  THE GFDL DISSIPATES BY 48 HOURS AND IS BETWEEN THE NOGAPS\r\nAND UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THREE AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOME 175 N MI OFFSHORE..THE GOVERNMENT OF\r\nMEXICO HAS DECIDED TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY SO\r\nFAR...AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL COLD CDO WITH A POSSIBLE HINT OF AN\r\nEYE REMNANT.  BUT CARLOTTA IS NEARING COLD WATER AND WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST TO COMMENCE SHORTLY AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE\r\nCOULD BE REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 18.9N 110.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N 111.3W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 21.6N 112.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.2N 113.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 115.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 26.5N 116.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-06-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CARLOTTA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY WHILE\r\nMOVING OVER COOL WATERS BUT STILL REMAINS AS A SMALL AND COMPACT\r\nHURRICANE. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 75 KNOTS AND FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED.  THIS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN\r\nFACT...SHIPS DISSIPATES CARLOTTA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MEXICO WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER CARLOTTA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON A TRACK PARALLEL\r\nTO BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BECAUSE\r\nCARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nOFFSHORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.  A COUPLE OF\r\nTRACK MODELS BRING CARLOTTA TO NEAR CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT BY THEN...CARLOTTA MAY JUST BE A\r\nDISSIPATING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 19.8N 110.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 114.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-06-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 65 KNOTS.  THIS IS BASED ON DECREASING CONVECTION\r\nWHICH RESULTED IN LOWER T-NUMBERS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE FLOW AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MEXICO WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER CARLOTTA TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON A TRACK PARALLEL\r\nTO BAJA CALIFORNIA...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MOST\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED ...SHOWERS AND ROUGH\r\nSURF CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ALONG SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 20.7N 111.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 21.9N 113.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 26.5N 118.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-06-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 23 2000\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA STILL SHOWS EYEWALL CONVECTION AND THE HINT OF AN EYE IN\r\nVISIBLE...INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS EVENING. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL REMAIN A MINIMAL HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA IS MOVING 315/14 ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR OR JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LARGE-\r\nSCALE GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST...AND IF\r\nCARLOTTA WERE OVER WARM WATER IT WOULD LIKELY RECURVE ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF THE LOW. SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE\r\nARE LESS THAN 20C...THE RESULT IS LIKELY TO BE DEATH BEFORE\r\nRECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN FAVORABLE...THE COLD WATER ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO DISSIPATE. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THIS IN 48 HR...BUT IT COULD OCCUR BEFORE THEN.\r\n\r\nSHOWERS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA COULD\r\nSTILL OCCUR ALONG SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 21.8N 113.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 23.1N 114.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 24.7N 116.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 26.3N 117.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-06-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 24 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THIS MOTION IS A\r\nRESULT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM OVER\r\nMEXICO AND A LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALMOST ALL GONE AND SATELIITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KNOTS...SO CARLOTTA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE TRACK TAKES CARLOTTA OVER VERY COLD WATER AND\r\nDISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 22.5N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 23.6N 116.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 25.2N 118.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 26.5N 119.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 28.0N 120.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-06-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 24 2000\r\n \r\nALL DEEP CONVECTION IS GONE AND CARLOTTA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER\r\nCOLD WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 305/13...AND LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 23.1N 115.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 24.2N 117.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 25.7N 118.9W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.8N 120.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-06-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUN 24 2000\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA CONTINUES AS A CONVECTION-FREE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD WITH MID-\r\nLEVEL DEBRIS.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/11...A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 23.6N 116.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 24.5N 117.7W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 25.6N 119.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 26.7N 120.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-06-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUN 24 2000\r\n\r\nA FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CARLOTTA IS STILL\r\nA TROPICAL STORM...ALBEIT BARELY SO.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nSYSTEM TRACKS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  CARLOTTA SHOULD BE\r\nDISSIPATING IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 24.5N 117.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 25.2N 117.9W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 26.3N 119.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 27.5N 120.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-06-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUN 25 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE ON INFRARED IMAGERY...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER...LEAVING IT EXPOSED AND MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE INITIAL MOTION OF 300/08 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER ALLOWS THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES TO FALL BELOW STORM STRENGTH.  CARLOTTA IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nDEPRESSION AND THE REMNANT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD QUICKLY\r\nDISSIPATE OVER COLD WATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 24.1N 117.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.7N 118.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.3N 119.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":29,"Date":"2000-06-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUN 25 2000\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nITS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON.  \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON\r\nCARLOTTA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 24.7N 118.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.5N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-07-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 06 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WELL TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED AND IS\r\nNOW BEING NUMBERED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nWEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY\r\nWARM ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDIMINISHED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SO LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY\r\nDURING THE SHORT TERM.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. WE HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE CLIPER AND\r\nBAMM MODELS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BASED ON THE STRENGTH AND\r\nHORIZONTAL EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...A CONTINUED MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION IS IMPLIED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 12.9N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 13.0N 123.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 13.2N 125.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 13.6N 127.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N 129.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N 133.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-07-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND I AM NOT\r\nEVEN SURE IF THERE IS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  IT APPEARS\r\nTO BE AN OPEN TROUGH.  IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE 1.0 INDICATING HOW\r\nWEAK THE SYSTEM IS ON IMAGERY.  THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER SMALL AND\r\nWV IMAGES SHOW VERY DRY AIR SURROUNDING IT.  \r\n \r\nNEITHER THE AVN NOR THE RELIABLE UK MODEL DEVELOPS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FROM THIS DEPRESSION.  SHIPS KEEPS IT WITH NO CHANGE.\r\n\r\nFOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS A POORLY\r\nORGANIZED 25- TO 30-KNOT DEPRESSION MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY.   SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR WHICH\r\nCOULD LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 13.0N 122.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N 124.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 13.0N 126.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 13.5N 128.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 14.0N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N 134.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-07-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 07 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E IS STRUGGLING...TO SAY THE LEAST...AND IS\r\nDEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLOCATED BENEATH A SMALL ANTICYCLONE BASED ON WATER VAPOR AND IR\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH. 0151Z AND 0159Z\r\nMICROWAVE WINDS SUPPORT A 20 TO 25 KT DEPRESSION AND NIGHT TIME\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL STILL REMAINS...\r\nALBEIT VERY SMALL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMPLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. TD FOUR-E REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nDEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LARGE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTERLY COURSE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND CLIPER\r\nMODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nI AM HOLDING ON TO THE SYSTEM MAINLY DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE\r\nFLUCTUATIONS THAT HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE PREVIOUS 2 DAYS WITH\r\nINCREASING CONVECTION AT NIGHT AND DECREASING CONVECTION DURING THE\r\nDAY. HOWEVER...UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPS NEAR THE SYSTEM\r\nCENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...TD FOUR-E WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN\r\nAND LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS WILL LIKELY KILL OFF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...IF IT IS EVEN STILL AROUND AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 13.2N 123.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 13.4N 124.9W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 13.7N 126.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 14.5N 131.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 14.5N 135.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-07-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 07 2000\r\n\r\nONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION WILL BRING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMNANTS INTO AN AREA OF INCREASED STABILITY AND\r\nSTRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE REDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  INFORMATION\r\nON THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS BEING ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 13.2N 124.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 13.4N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 13.8N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 14.0N 130.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-07-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO\r\nSAN LUCAS HAVE REACHED A CONSENSUS 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.\r\nCONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED AND NOT THAT DEEP...HAS PERSISTED OVER\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOR MOST OF THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND THE\r\nDISTURBANCE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/15.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM\r\nCLOSELY.  WITH THE DEPRESSION MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...\r\nDISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 20.4N 116.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 21.2N 119.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.1N 122.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 22.9N 125.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-07-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15...PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER. \r\nSINCE THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION...THE MOTION SHOULD BE MOST\r\nINFLUENCED BY LOW LEVEL STEERING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE A MOSTLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY OVER RATHER COLD WATER....24 DEG C...AND\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES MOVING IT OVER COLDER WATER.  SO THE\r\nLACK OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT UNEXPECTED AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY\r\nIN\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nFFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 21.0N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 21.7N 120.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N 123.8W    20 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 23.2N 126.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000\r\n\r\nLITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND\r\nIT IS NOW MOVING OVER 23 DEG C WATERS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON BE\r\nREDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...AND DISSIPATE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  CURRENT MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 290/17.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THE\r\nSHALLOW-LAYER BAM MODEL...WHICH IS APPROPRIATE FOR THIS TYPE\r\nOF SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 21.6N 120.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N 122.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 23.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 24.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000\r\n\r\nA FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION 5-E...WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 25 KT...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 24 HR OR LESS AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME VERY POORLY DEFINED IN MULTISPECTRAL\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 290/16...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER...UNLESS AN UNLIKELY REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 22.2N 121.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 23.1N 124.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE\r\nDESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...WHICH ARE THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A BROAD DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION WEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WHICH THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST WILL FILL WITH\r\nTIME AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OR JUST NORTH OF WEST MOTION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT REALLY SHOW THIS. THE BAM MODELS ALL CALL FOR A\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION...WHILE THE LBAR...P9UK...AND P91E ALL\r\nCALL FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nSCENARIO FROM THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS COLD CLOUD TOPS TO -80C ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD EVERYWHERE EXCEPT\r\nTO THE EAST. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLIES.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 76 KT IN 48 HR...BUT THEN SHOWS\r\nLITTLE FURTHER STRENGTHENING AS IT USES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nFROM THE LBAR TRACK INTO COOLER WATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR MORE INTENSIFICATION...AS THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER WARMER WATER THAN USED IN THIS SHIPS RUN. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 10.7N 106.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 10.9N 109.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 11.2N 112.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 11.5N 115.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 11.5N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 11.5N 124.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS UPGRADED\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM DANIEL.  THE CENTER IS NEAR OR UNDER THE\r\nCONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND A BAND WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35\r\nKT...30 KT...AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER\r\nFORECAST REASONING OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WEST OF DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nFILL AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO\r\nFOLLOW A WEST TO JUST NORTH OF WEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE BIG PROBLEM IS EXACTLY WHERE\r\nTHE STORM TRACKS IN RELATION TO COOLER WATER.  A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK...AS SHOWN BY LBAR...WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION\r\nAFTER 48 HR AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.  A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK...AS SHOWN BY\r\nBAMD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WOULD ALLOW MORE TIME OVER WARMER\r\nWATER AND MORE STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE POSSIBILITIES FROM THE VARIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACKS.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT DANIEL IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM...\r\nAND THUS IT MIGHT INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AFTER BECOMING A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 10.9N 108.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 11.3N 110.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 11.7N 113.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 12.0N 116.7W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 12.0N 119.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 12.0N 125.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 280/16.  THE CENTER HAS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF A 280 DEGREE HEADING BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A\r\nTEMPORARY WOBBLE.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A CONTINUED MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AT 00Z FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nKGWC.  THERE IS A SMALL PERSISTENT COLD CDO OVER THE CENTER AND A\r\nBANDING FEATURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  ALSO THE SHIP PJPO\r\nIS LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z AND REPORTS\r\n1004.8 MB AND 26 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE COULD BE\r\nBELOW 1000 MB.  THEREFORE THE 03Z WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50\r\nKNOTS.  SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE STORM OVER WARM\r\nWATER...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND BRINGS\r\nDANIEL TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 11.6N 109.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.0N 112.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 12.5N 118.9W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 12.5N 122.2W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W    90 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2000\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH VERY\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE EAST.  BANDING AND\r\nCENTRAL FEATURES GIVE A SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55\r\nKNOTS.  SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK OVER THE AREA AND THE WATERS\r\nARE FAIRLY WARM...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST A LA THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  DANIEL WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER THIS\r\nMORNING.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES\r\nSINCE...WEST OF 120W...SST IS NEAR 26 DEG C ALONG 15N.\r\n\r\nMOVEMENT CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/16.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH\r\nINITIALIZES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE CORRECT LOCATION...MAINTAINS\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL FOR THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF DUE WEST HEADING.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nPREDICTED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSLIGHTLY WEAKER LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 11.8N 111.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.2N 114.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 12.5N 117.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 12.8N 120.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.0N 122.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 13.5N 127.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO BECOME ORGANIZED AND HAS NOW REACHED HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY BASED ON AN EYE FEATURE IN 0835Z TRMM IMAGERY AND A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT FROM SAB. A SMALL CDO APPEARS\r\nTO HAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS WITH A COLD OVERSHOOTING\r\nTOP OF -80C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND IMPROVING IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nCIRCULAR AND SYMMETRIC. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST\r\nMODELS IS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 24 WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST AFTERWARDS. THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING\r\nWELL AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THOSE MODELS\r\nAND MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION NORTH OF 15N LATITUDE.\r\n \r\nDANIEL APPEARS TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT\r\nTREND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH WOULD BRING THE HURRICANE TO\r\nCATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY TOMORROW. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS DANIEL\r\nTO 90 KT IN 36 HOURS AND THEN LEVELS IT OFF AT 95 KT AFTERWARDS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LATEST NAVY OCEANOGRAPHIC CENTER SST ANALYSIS\r\nINDICATES THE 28C ISOTHERM EXTENDS FURTHER WEST...TO 120W...THAN THE\r\nNCEP SST ANALYSIS USED IN THE SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 12.4N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N 115.3W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.6N 118.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.1N 120.8W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL HAS DISPLAYED MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT OVERALL APPEARANCE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO IMPROVE. AN EYE HAS DEVELOPED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 70\r\nTO 75 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA AND SAB. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS WHILE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE DISTINCT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/18. SOME ACCELERATION AND A SLIGHT POLEWARD\r\nJOG HAS OCCURRED DUE TO POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD MCS THAT DEVELOPED JUST\r\nWEST OF DANIEL. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THE MCS\r\nIS WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO SHEAR OUT INTO AN OUTER CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND. AS A RESULT...WE ANTICIPATE A GENERAL RETURN FROM A 295\r\nDEGREES JOG BACK TO A 285 DEGREE MOTION AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MODEL CONSENSUS OF A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND BECOMING MORE\r\nWESTWARD AFTERWARDS BASED ON THE STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nDANIEL.\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE AND WE EXPECT THAT\r\nTREND TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 18 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD BRING THE\r\nHURRICANE TO CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY SOMETIME TOMORROW. THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nONLY BRINGS DANIEL TO 90 KT IN 24 HOURS AND MAINTAINS THAT INTENSITY\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD. SHIPS LOWER INTENSITY FORECAST IS MAINLY DUE TO\r\nDANIEL TRACKING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS...25C TO 26C...AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL BASED ON MUCH WARMER SSTS INDICATED IN YESTERDAYS NAVO SST\r\nANALYSIS AND ALSO NEARBY SHIP REPORTS...28C TO 28.5C SSTS...JUST\r\nNORTH AND WEST OF HURRICANE DANIEL. AFTER 36 HOURS...A GENERAL SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BASED ON DANIEL MOVING OVER 26C TO 27C\r\nSSTS WEST OF 122W LONGITUDE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.6N 116.6W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 14.3N 119.2W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 14.6N 121.6W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/19 AND THE FORWARD SPEED WAS\r\nACTUALLY 20 KT FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.  EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...ALL OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH\r\nSOME DECELERATION.  THE GFDL BECOMES VERY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD AT 72\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS INEXPLICABLE AS MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE\r\nHOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS\r\nALMOST THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT JUST A LITTLE\r\nFASTER.\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH A SMALL EYE PRESENT AND BANDING\r\nWEST...NORTH...AND EAST.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 36\r\nHOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND AFTER 12 HOURS BY THE GFDL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE LIKE THE SHIPS MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 13.7N 117.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 14.4N 119.7W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 125.9W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 128.6W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 133.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS EXHIBITING A CLASSIC APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...\r\nWITH AN EYE ESTIMATED NEAR 15 N MI IN DIAMETER EMBEDDED IN THE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS\r\n100 KNOTS...BASED ON A CONSENSUS T NUMBER OF 5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nTHE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS STRONG AND THE ONLY APPARENT\r\nINHIBITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING IS THE SST ALONG THE PROJECTED\r\nTRACK.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN SUGGESTS FURTHER INTENSIFICATION\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AS\r\nWELL.  HOWEVER...LATER IN THE PERIOD...DANIEL IS LIKELY TO GRADUAL\r\nWEAKEN DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nA STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS\r\nPROVIDING A SWIFT STEERING CURRENT.  INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR\r\n285/18...FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE 15 TO 20 DEGREES TO THE\r\nWEST OF DANIEL.  THIS FEATURE COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD AND WEAKENING.  THEREFORE NO SIGNIFICANT TURN TO THE RIGHT\r\nIS EXPECTED...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL\r\nIS LIKELY TO WEAKEN WITH TIME.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE TRACK\r\nPRODUCED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL...AND ONLY A SMIDGEON TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 14.0N 118.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.7N 121.3W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.3N 127.3W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000\r\n \r\nTHE 15 NM WIDE EYE OF DANIEL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T5.9\r\n(ALMOST 115 KT).  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115\r\nKT...102 KT...AND 102 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE THUS INCREASED TO 105 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/17.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT\r\nFORWARD.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A WEST TO JUST NORTH OF WEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING SOME DECELERATION AND A LITTLE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL\r\nWHICH DRASTICALLY SLOWS THE HURRICANE AND TURNS IT NORTH INTO THE\r\nRIDGE. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX.  DANIEL CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EASTWARD.  WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS\r\nWEST OF THE HURRICANE...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE\r\nLOW WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EAST-WEST RIDGE ALONG 15N. \r\nTHIS WOULD ALLOW DANIEL TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.  THE PROBLEM IS THE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE SST ANALYSIS FROM THE NAVY INDICATES THE\r\nHURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE END OF THE 28C WATER. ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...FOR NO OBVIOUS REASON THE SSTS USED IN THE SHIPS MODEL ARE 2C\r\nWARMER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  THIS ALLOWS THE MODEL TO KEEP THE\r\nWINDS AT 105-115 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL COMPROMISE...CALLING FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT\r\n12 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS DANIEL MOVES ALONG THE\r\nSOUTH EDGE OF COOLER WATER.  SHOULD DANIEL TURN MORE NORTHWARD...IT\r\nWOULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 14.1N 120.1W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.4N 122.7W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 14.7N 125.8W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 14.9N 128.6W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 131.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 135.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO BE A CLASSICALLY ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH SMALL...\r\nHURRICANE WITH A 15 NM WIDE EYE.  A WELL-DEFINED BAND WAS WRAPPED\r\nAROUND THE WEST SEMICIRCLE EARLIER...BUT IS WEAKENING NOW. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 110\r\nKT...110 KT...AND 102 KT.  THUS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO\r\n110 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH SHOULD CONTINUE DANIEL ON A GENERALLY WEST TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY BOTH LARGE SCALE AND NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...EXCEPT FOR CALLING FOR A FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS MOVING INTO COOLER WATER AND MAY BE PEAKING IN INTENSITY.\r\nFORECAST TRACKS TAKES THE HURRICANE OVER 26C-27C WATER FOR THE NEXT\r\n72 HR.  SINCE A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 15N SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR LIGHT...ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD\r\nTURN WOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 14.4N 121.9W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.7N 124.2W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 127.3W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2000\r\n \r\nLAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW THAT DANIEL HAS A\r\nDISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A REMARKABLY WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AS WELL AS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS.  HOWEVER...IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS WEAKENING AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nARE EITHER THE SAME OR LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 110 KNOTS AT THIS TIME BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED BEYOND 24 HOURS AS  DANIEL MOVES PARALLEL AND CLOSE TO\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE WEAKENING TREND IS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS...SHIFOR\r\nAND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS MOVING 280/15 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH.  BECAUSE NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OR IN THE POSITION OF THE\r\nRIDGE...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.  IT IS KIND\r\nOF UNCOMFORTABLE TO SEE THAT THE AVN MODEL MAINTAINS AND DEVELOPS\r\nEVERY SINGLE SPURIOUS VORTEX IN THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nHURRICANE WHICH IT LOSES AFTER 36 HOURS. THE UK APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nCLEANEST KEEPING DANIEL AS A DISTINCT FEATURE MOVING ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 14.6N 123.2W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.9N 125.5W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.3N 128.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 131.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.8N 133.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 139.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2000\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH DANIEL IS STILL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND\r\nTHE AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASING.  THIS INDICATES THAT A WEAKENING TREND HAS BEGUN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS DANIEL RUNS\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL AND NEAR TO THE 25 DEG C SST ISOTHERM.  THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODEL RUNS SHOW A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING\r\nTHAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OR PROGNOSTIC\r\nREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14...\r\nAND A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nTHIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFDL\r\nHURRICANE MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 15.0N 124.6W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.3N 126.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.6N 129.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 132.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N 134.7W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 115\r\nKT...102 KT...AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT\r\n105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDANIEL HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/15.  THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...WITH SHOULD CONTINUE IT ON A WEST TO\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR.  A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION COULD OCCUR\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF A TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHEAST\r\nOF HAWAII WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A 280/290 DEGREE MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. \r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO EITHER THE REASONING BEHIND THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST OR THE FORECAST ITSELF.  DANIEL CONTINUES MOVING\r\nALMOST PARALLEL TO THE 26C ISOTHERM IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. \r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 15.6N 127.7W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.9N 129.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.6N 132.7W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 17.1N 135.8W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR ADVISORY NUMBER...\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 115\r\nKT...102 KT...AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT\r\n105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/15.  THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...WITH SHOULD CONTINUE IT ON A WEST TO\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR.  A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION COULD OCCUR\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF A TROUGH DEVELOPING NORTHEAST\r\nOF HAWAII WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A 280/290 DEGREE MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO EITHER THE REASONING BEHIND THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST OR THE FORECAST ITSELF.  DANIEL CONTINUES MOVING\r\nALMOST PARALLEL TO THE 26C ISOTHERM IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 15.6N 127.7W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.9N 129.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.6N 132.7W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 17.1N 135.8W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DANIEL CONTINUES TO HAVE A\r\nSMALL BUT DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  HOWEVER...THE RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS\r\nWARMER THAN EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\n100 KNOTS. WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE OCEAN IS COOLER.  THEREFORE\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. \r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\nTHIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 15.7N 129.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 15.9N 131.5W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N 134.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.8N 137.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N 147.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n\r\nLATEST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THE EYE BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED AND\r\nTHIS IS CONFIRMED IN A RECENT SSM/I IMAGE.  CENTRAL COLD CONVECTION\r\nIS SLOWLY DIMINISHING...AS ARE DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS 95 KNOTS.  UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ANALYSES\r\nSUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AHEAD OF DANIEL DUE TO A HIGH-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH NEAR 140W...BUT GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS\r\nTROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OF DANIEL IS\r\nFORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. \r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES STEADILY WESTWARD NEAR 15 KNOTS.  A WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A REASONABLE JOB WITH DANIEL THUS FAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 15.8N 130.9W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 133.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.4N 136.1W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N 139.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.5N 142.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 147.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n\r\nA LARGE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT ONCE AGAIN IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. SATELLITE CURRENT T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC\r\nRANGE FROM 85 TO 90 KT WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICAL INTENSITY OF \r\n90 KT. AN EXPANDING EYE PATTERN FURTHER SUPPORTS A SLIGHT WEAKENING\r\nTREND. DANIEL REMAINS A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION SUGGESTS A DUE WEST JOG IN THE\r\nTRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nTREND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS SHOWS A FLAT SHARP\r\nPOLEWARD EDGE TO THE OUTFLOW CIRRUS.  THIS SUGGESTS UPPER LEVEL\r\nCONFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ALONG 20N LATITUDE BETWEEN THE POLEWARD\r\nOUTFLOW AND A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE NEAR 24N135W...AS SEEN IN THE\r\nUW-CIMMS WATER VAPOR WIND ANALYSES. THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE IS\r\nLIKELY KEEPING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL STRONGER THAN THE\r\nUKMET MODEL IS INDICATING. THE PAST 24 HOURS OF UKMET AND GFDN MODEL\r\nRUNS HAVE HAD A CONSISTENT 10 DEGREES RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...WHEREAS\r\nTHE GFDL AND NOGAPS HAVE HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON THE GENERAL\r\nDIRECTION...ALBEIT TOO SLOW.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST UPDATES THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AFTERWARDS...AND THE FASTER SPEED OF THE UKMET MODEL WAS\r\nFOLLOWED.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nOVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS DANIEL TRACKS ALONG THE 25.5C TO 26C SST\r\nISOTHERM...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING. WE\r\nHAVE FOLLOWED THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY...WHICH TAKES DANIEL\r\nDOWN TO MINIMUM HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 16.0N 132.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 134.8W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 137.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.9N 141.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 17.5N 144.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 19.0N 150.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND INNER CORE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE\r\nCOOLED SUGGESTING THAT DANIEL HAS RE-INTENSIFIED. THE OFFICAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n5.0...90 KT...FROM SAB AND KGWC AND 5.5...100 KT...FROM TAFB. DANIEL\r\nIS NOT BEING TAKEN BACK UP TO CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY\r\nDUE TO THE EYE BEING OVER COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS FOR A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE...WHICH SHOULD MAKE THE BOUNDARY LAYER MORE STABLE AND\r\nKEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS\r\nSYMMETRICAL. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/15 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nTREND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FLATTENED POLEWARD\r\nOUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES HAVE\r\nBEEN SHIFTING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE THAT TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE LATEST UKMET RUN IS\r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK\r\nINDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS. THERE IS ALSO MORE CONVERGENCE IN THE\r\nFORECAST MODELS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FOUR RUNS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MODEL SUITE...WHILE\r\nMAINTAINING A STEADY 15 KT SPEED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS MEANS THAT\r\nDANIEL COULD POSE A THREAT TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII SOMETIME ON\r\nMONDAY.\r\n\r\nA 1430Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE INFLOW IS FROM\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH MOST OF THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR TO\r\nTHE NORTH BEING SHUNTED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF DANIEL. THIS INFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECAYS DANIEL MORE SLOWLY THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 16.1N 134.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N 136.3W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.7N 139.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.1N 142.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.7N 145.7W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W    70 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE RELATIVE COOLER WATER...ASSUMING A CORRECT SST ANALYSIS\r\n...DANIEL HAS NOT WEAKENED AND CONTINUES TO BE A VERY WELL ORGANIZED\r\nHURRICANE WITH A TYPICAL ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A DISTINCT\r\nEYE.  IN FACT...IT MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER AT THIS TIME. SUBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 5.5 WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN PEAKING AT 6.0\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE.  INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 95 KNOTS BUT\r\nWINDS MAY BE 100 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN DUE TO THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE SST ARE NOT CHANGING MUCH\r\nAHEAD OF DANIEL...REMAINING ABOUT 25-26 DEGREES.  I WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISED IF THE WEAKENING PROCESS IS SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n  \r\nDANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS HIGH\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE.  THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE ON THE SAME TRACK AND A WEAKER DANIEL SHOULD BE APPROACHING\r\nTHE BIG ISLAND IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS WHICH INDEED ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.\r\n\r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nDANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE IN THE\r\nHONOLULU AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.    \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 16.4N 135.5W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.6N 137.8W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.5N 144.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 153.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH OVER ROUGHLY 25C WATER...DANIEL HAS SHOWN AN IMPROVED\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE DURING THE NIGHT WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS IN THE\r\nEYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 115 KT...102 KT...AND 102 KT.  ADDITIONALLY...OBJECTIVE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 115 KT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE INCREASED TO 105 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS WOBBLED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE PAST 6 HR...AND\r\nSMOOTHING OUT THE WOBBLES GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/16.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE DANIEL ON A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT\r\nWEAKENS AS A STRONG TROUGH NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DIGS\r\nSOUTHWARD.  THIS MAY ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  TRACK FORECAST\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD...WITH THE GFDN AND UKMET\r\nTAKING DANIEL WELL NORTHEAST OF HAWAII WHILE NOGAPS AND BAMS TAKE IT\r\nTOWARD THE ISLANDS.  ALL MODELS SUGGEST A SLOWER MOTION AFTER 48 HR. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES DANIEL ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HR WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION...ALTHOUGH NOT AS\r\nMUCH AS INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL AND NHC91.\r\n\r\nWHILE DANIEL HAS INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN ELONGATION\r\nOF THE CLOUD PATTERN...CIRRUS FROM THE ITCZ MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nSTORM...AND A NEARBY LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS SUGGESTS THIS\r\nTREND IS TEMPORARY.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY BE\r\nPRESENT W OF 150W BY 48-72 HR.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...DANIEL COULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER DURING THAT TIME THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nDANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 16.9N 137.2W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.2N 139.6W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.8N 142.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.3N 145.7W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 148.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 152.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AGAIN AS THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nMORE RAGGED. HOWEVER...COLD TOPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN EYEWALL. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY TAKEN\r\nDOWN TO 100 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 95 TO 110\r\nKT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS AND THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nRELAXED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\n\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 285/17 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS TREND. DANIEL HAS GAINED\r\nSOME LATITUDE OWING TO SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND A MID TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH WHICH ACTED TO WEAKEN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nTROUGH IS NOW ALONG 135W AND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIEL. THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE FILLING BACK\r\nIN SINCE THE SHORT TERM MOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN CLOSER\r\nTO 275-280 DEGREES. WE HAVE FOLLOWED THE GFDL MODEL CLOSELY AND ARE\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF OUR FORECAST MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE ARE\r\nCLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...WITH GOOD MOIST UNSTABLE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY INFLOW WELL-ESTABLISHED AND THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nDECREASING...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO\r\nFLUCTUATE WITH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLY OCCURRING DURING\r\nTHE LOCAL NIGHTTIME CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.\r\n\r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nDANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 17.4N 139.1W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.8N 141.4W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.3N 144.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 18.9N 147.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 149.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N 154.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-07-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DVORAK OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE BEEN 5.0...90 KT...FOR THE PAST 4 HOURS...WHICH WAS USED FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. SATELITTE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND KGWC ALSO SUPPORT 90 KT. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION\r\nHAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...BUT THE\r\nOVERALL CIRCUALTION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AS DOES THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 285/15 BASED ON THE PAST 9 HOURS TREND...BUT THE MOTION\r\nHAS BEEN CLOSER TO 280/14 THE PAST 4 TO 6 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY\r\nWEAKEN DANIEL ENOUGH TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM\r\nTHE LOW AND MID LEVEL CENTER. THE RESULT WOULD BE MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DANIEL OVER LAND\r\nARE NOGAPS  AND THE SHALLOW BAM IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECASTS...THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS...AND THEN THE DEEP AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS AFTERWARDS.\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WE\r\nSTAYED CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A GOOD\r\nCIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND GOOD MOIST UNSTABLE\r\nINFLOW CONTINUING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...WE ARE A LITTLE HESITANT TO\r\nTAKE THE INTENSITY DOWN AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nDANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE HURRICANE DANIEL WILL BE\r\nTRACKING WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...\r\nFUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE\r\nCENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 17.7N 140.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.2N 142.7W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 18.8N 145.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 148.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 150.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.0N 155.0W    55 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-07-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 290300\r\nTCDCP1\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO TRACK WEST\r\nNORTHWEST. EARLY TODAY THE EYE DISAPPEARED AND MOST OF THE\r\nSURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION COLLAPSED BUT SOME OF IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nREDEVELOPING. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 75 TO 90 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND HONOLULU. STRONGEST OUTFLOW HAS BEEN IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT INDICATING DANIEL IS UNDER INCREASED SHEAR ALOFT. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN 72 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIP INTENSITY MODEL.\r\nTHE TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE NOGAPS MODEL AT THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE\r\nMODEL GROUPING. IT IS ASSUMED THAT DANIEL WILL BECOME A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM WITH STEERING FROM THE LOWER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.\r\n\r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY \r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DANIEL\r\nCOULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 18.2N 142.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.6N 144.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.2N 147.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 150.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.4N 153.1W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 158.2W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-07-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 290300\r\nTCDCP1\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CONTINUING TO MOVE TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST NORTHWEST. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANIMATION INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nIS SET AT 65 KT. OVERALL...CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND IS MAINLY\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DANIEL APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM \r\nSTRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE TRACK IS NEAR THE SOUTH\r\nEDGE OF THE MODEL GROUPING AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. \r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nIF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER HABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 18.6N 143.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.6N 148.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N 151.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 20.7N 154.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N 159.5W    35 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-07-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 291500\r\nTCDCP1\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.\r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD WEAKENING...WILL MAINTAIN THE\r\nSYSTEM AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/15. ALL TRACK MODELS...EXCEPT THE DEEP BETA\r\nADVECTION MODEL... BAMD...AND THE LIMITED AREA BAROTROPIC...LBAR...\r\nARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE AND IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nIF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER HABLUTZEL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 18.9N 145.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N 147.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 150.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.6N 153.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N 156.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 21.8N 161.0W    35 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 292100\r\nTCDCP1\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT AT 11 AM HST FOR THE ISLANDS\r\n   OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...\r\n\r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORMS...HAVE REDEVELOPED AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND HONOLULU AND THEREFORE DANIEL\r\nHAS BEEN KEPT AT 65 KT. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DID NOT\r\nCONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE FIRST AIRCRAFT\r\nRECONAISSANCE SCHEDULED FOR 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY\r\nPROVIDE ANSWERS ABOUT BOTH THE CIRCULATION AND ITS STRENGTH. THE \r\nFORECAST TREND IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIP\r\nMODEL AS DANIEL MOVES TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE TRACK\r\nREMAINS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GFDL MODEL. \r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nIF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 19.0N 147.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.4N 149.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 152.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.6N 155.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 21.2N 158.1W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.2N 162.6W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-07-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 300300\r\nTCDCP1\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMIANS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS\r\n   OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST AIRCRAFT RECON ON DANIEL FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995\r\nMB AND ESTIMATED MAX SURFACE WINDS AT 55 KT. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT. DANIEL IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM ON THE 5 PM ADVISORY. THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE\r\nCENTER CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND IS NOW MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE NORTH\r\nQUADRANT. THE FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AS DANIEL MOVES\r\nWEST TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER\r\nSHEAR.  \r\n\r\nDANIEL HAS TAKEN A MORE WEST NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS BUT SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE WEST TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AND IS LESS AFFECTED BY UPPER WINDS. THE\r\nTRACK IS INITIALLY BASED ON PERSISTENCE BUT LATER IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND BAM SHALLOW.\r\n\r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nIF IT MOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 19.5N 148.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.1N 150.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 152.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 20.7N 154.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 20.9N 157.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 21.7N 163.7W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-07-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 300730\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n\r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF MAUI\r\nCOUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII...\r\n\r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND KAUAI...\r\n\r\nTHE 06Z POSITION AGREES WITH BOTH THE HONOLULU AND SAB SATELLITE\r\nFIXES AND WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT RECON FIX. DANIEL HAS BEEN ON A\r\nWEST NORTHWEST TRACK THE LAST 12 HOURS PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGED FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS FROM SAB AND HONOLULU\r\nRESPECTIVELY. A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB ESTIMATED BY THE RECON\r\nFLIGHT ALSO INDICATES 55 KNOT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nQUADRANTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS KEPT ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. THE FORECAST THEN CALLS FOR DANIEL TO\r\nTURN TO THE WEST AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM IS INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE\r\nTRADE WINDS. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD SHOWS SOME\r\nACCELERATION AS DANIEL MOVES SOUTH OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nTHE TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE NWS AND NAVY NOGAP AIDES AND IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE LAST FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IT IT\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST CRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 20.0N 149.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 150.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 20.8N 152.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 21.0N 155.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 21.2N 158.1W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 21.7N 164.8W    30 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":29,"Date":"2000-07-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 301500\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST SUN JUL 30 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF\r\nMAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII...\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OAHU AND KAUAI...\r\n \r\nAS WAS THE CASE 6 HOURS AGO...THE SATELLITE FIXES FROM HONOLULU AND\r\nSAB AND THE AIRCRAFT RECON FIX ARE CLOSE TOGETHER. THE 1ZZ POSITION\r\nOF DANIEL IS JUST WEST OF THE TIGHT GROUPING. TRMM DATA AT 0915Z WAS\r\nALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RECON FIXES. OVER THE LAST 12\r\nHOURS...DANIEL HAS MOVED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS. THE SYSTEM HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE TURNING SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS\r\nTHE WEST AT 285 DEGREES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE 50 KT MAXIMUM\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS AGREE WITH BOTH HONOLULU AND SAB ESTIMATES. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH QUADRANTS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS KEPT ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS\r\nWITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING FORECAST. THE FORECAST THEN TURNS DANIEL\r\nTO THE WEST AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRADE\r\nWINDS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO INTENSIFY\r\nSLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE NWS AND NAVY GFDL OBJECTIVE AIDES AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nBETA ADVECTION MODELS.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IT IT\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST CRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 20.4N 150.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 20.8N 152.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N 155.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 157.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 21.4N 160.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 22.6N 165.3W    45 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":30,"Date":"2000-07-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 302100\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST SUN JUL 30 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF\r\nMAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII AND IS ISSUED FOR OAHU...\r\nINCLUDING THE CITY OF HONOLULU...EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM HST...\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES FROM HONOLULU AND SAB AND THE AIRCRAFT RECON FIX ARE\r\nVERY CLOSE TOGETHER...PUTTING DANIEL AT 20.6N 151.0W AT 18Z. THIS\r\nCONTINUES DANIEL ON A 295 DEGREE TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. \r\n\r\nOF DANIEL IS JUST WEST OF THE TIGHT GROUPING. TRMM DATA AT 0915Z WAS\r\nALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER RECON FIXES. OVER THE LAST 12\r\nHOURS...DANIEL HAS MOVED TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS. THE SYSTEM HOWEVER APPEARS TO BE TURNING SLOWLY BACK TOWARDS\r\nTHE WEST AT 285 DEGREES IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE 50 KT MAXIMUM\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS AGREE WITH BOTH HONOLULU AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nQUADRANTS CLOSE TO THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS KEPT ON A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS\r\nWITH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED. THE FORECAST THEN TURNS DANIEL\r\nTO THE WEST AS THE WEAKER SYSTEM MOVES MORE IN LINE WITH THE TRADE\r\nWINDS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DANIEL TO INTENSIFY\r\nSLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER WATER AND TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST\r\nNORTHWEST. AGAIN...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NWS AND NAVY\r\nGFDL MODELS AND SOUTH OF THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST CRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 20.7N 151.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 21.1N 153.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 21.3N 156.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 21.4N 158.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 21.7N 160.8W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 22.8N 165.6W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":31,"Date":"2000-07-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 310300\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST SUN JUL 30 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF\r\nMAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII AND IS ISSUED FOR OAHU...\r\nINCLUDING THE CITY OF HONOLULU...EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM HST...\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES AND RECONNAISSANCE SHOW THAT DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nSLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TAKEN A JOG TO THE RIGHT. THE MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD COURSE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...PULLING THE STORM\r\nNORTHWARD AND ALLOWING A GREATER INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL WINDS\r\nWITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. RECONNAISSANCE ALSO INDICATED THAT THE\r\nEYE HAD REFORMED AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION NOW\r\nCOVERING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ONCE AGAIN. \r\n\r\nTHIS STRENGTHENING MAY ONLY BE TEMPORARY...BUT THE NORTHWARD JOG OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL NOW RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...TAKING THE\r\nSTORM JUST NORTH OF ALL THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS SHOULD ALWAYS BE\r\nBORN IN MIND WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS...FORECAST TRACKS ARE ALWAYS\r\nSUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF\r\nTHE STORM. THUS MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND OAHU REMAIN UNDER A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH. THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII HAS BEEN CLEARED OF ALL WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS AS DANIEL IS NOW ON A TRACK THAT WILL TAKE IT TOO FAR TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THIS ISLAND. THIS MODIFIED TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nENSEMBLE FORECAST TRACK OF SEVERAL MODELS AND IS NOW NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY FOLLOWED GFDL-AVIATION MODEL TRACK.\r\n\r\nAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE STRENGTH\r\nGRADUALLY PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. ONCE IT IS WEST OF KAUAI...\r\nDANIEL WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nWARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THAT AREA.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 20.9N 152.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N 153.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 21.5N 155.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.9N 157.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N 160.2W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 23.4N 164.6W    50 KTS\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":32,"Date":"2000-07-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 310900\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST SUN JUL 30 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF\r\nMAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII AND IS ISSUED FOR OAHU...\r\nINCLUDING THE CITY OF HONOLULU...EFFECTIVE AT 11 AM HST...\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS NOW DISPLAYING A MARKED SHEARING TREND WITH THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION NOW EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD\r\nCOVER. DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS DECREASED IN\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SLOW\r\nWEAKENING...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AS IT MOVES\r\nPAST THE ISLANDS. IF THE SHEARING CONTINUES DANIEL COULD EVENTUALLY\r\nTAKE A MORE DUE WEST COURSE BUT FOR NOW REMAINS ON A WEST NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK WITH ITS CENTER PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE\r\nALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORM. THEREFORE MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND\r\nOAHU REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH. \r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IF IT\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nLARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 21.2N 152.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 21.5N 154.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 21.8N 156.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.1N 158.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 22.8N 161.4W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 24.4N 166.9W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":33,"Date":"2000-07-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 311500\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST MON JUL 31 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF\r\nMAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU INCLUDING THE CITY OF\r\nHONOLULU...\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF ACTIVE BUT ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT. SHEARING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE INTENSITY OF\r\nDANIEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CONFORMITY WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS. THE MOTION OF DANIEL SLOWED FURTHER AS IT MADE A JOG\r\nTOWARDS THE NORTHWEST THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO BE\r\nRESUMING THE PAST WEST NORTHWEST TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF OF OAHU AND KAUAI. THIS TRACK IS MIDWAY BETWEEN THE\r\nGFDL AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS. THE FORWARD SPEED IS INCREASED WITH\r\nTIME IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG\r\n35N.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE\r\nALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORM. THEREFORE MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND\r\nOAHU REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY\r\nAND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD PAST THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nLARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 21.0N 153.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N 154.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.6N 156.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 22.0N 158.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 22.5N 161.1W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 24.5N 166.8W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":34,"Date":"2000-07-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 312100\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST MON JUL 31 2000\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF\r\nMAUI COUNTY AND FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU INCLUDING THE CITY OF\r\nHONOLULU...\r\n \r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR KAUAI...\r\n\r\nSTRONG DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN FLARED UP ON THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nFLANK OF DANIEL THIS MORNING...WITH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FINDING\r\nWINDS OF HURRICANE STRENGTH OR GREATER AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL ON\r\nTHE WAY OUT OF THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS INDICATES SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IN THE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE ADVISORY REFLECTS THIS\r\nTREND. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL HAS ONCE AGAIN\r\nMOVED BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL DENSE CIRRUS OVERCAST...IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE INDICATED STRENGTHENING. WITH CONVECTION APPEARING TO WRAP\r\nAROUND TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR THE CENTER...THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH\r\nHAS BEEN MAINTAINED THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND WEAKENING SLOWED\r\nTHEREAFTER IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST OF KAUAI. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE OUTFLOW AND\r\nENHANCE CONVECTION AND SLOW THE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF DANIEL...BUT\r\nALSO INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHEARING THE STORM WITH TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OUT THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT\r\nFORWARD MOTION HAS BEEN SLOWED. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nBROUGHT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE LIKELY SHEARING OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER FROM THE UPPER LEVEL IN TIME. THE CENTER IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI AND REMAINS\r\nCLOSE TO MIDWAY BETWEEN THE BETA ADVECTION MODEL-SHALLOW AND THE\r\nGFDL MODEL. \r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACKS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE\r\nALWAYS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS SUBTLE INFLUENCES CHANGE THE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF THE STORM. THEREFORE MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND\r\nOAHU REMAIN UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND KAUAI REMAINS UNDER A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH.\r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DANIEL. DANIEL COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY\r\nAND TUESDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD PAST THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 21.3N 154.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N 155.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 21.9N 157.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 22.3N 159.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 22.8N 161.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.2N 166.4W    45 KTS\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":35,"Date":"2000-08-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 010300\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST MON JUL 31 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL UNDERWENT A STRONG PULSATION THIS MORNING AS\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST CAUSED STRONG CONVECTION AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM TO FLARE UP. WINDS INCREASED RAPIDLY DURING\r\nTHE MORNING AS CONVECTION WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER AND FORMED AN\r\nAPPARANT EYE. BY EARLY AFTERNOON HOWEVER THE CONVECTION WAS\r\nCOLLAPSING AND THE POSSIBLE EYE CLOSED UP. TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nIS MAINTAINED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEPER CIRCULATION WILL APPARANTLY TAKE DANIEL ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK...BETWEEN THE BETA ADVECTION MODEL SHALLOW AND\r\nMEDIUM AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL. LITTLE SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...SO WEAKENING WILL BE\r\nGRADUAL.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE ERRATIC IN THEIR\r\nMOVEMENT. RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL UNTIL IT IS FAR FROM THE\r\nISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 22.2N 154.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.8N 155.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.8N 158.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.9N 160.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 26.1N 162.7W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N 167.4W    45 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":36,"Date":"2000-08-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 010900\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST MON JUL 31 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL IS UNDERGOING YET ANOTHER WEAKENING PHASE. THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE COLD OVERCAST WHICH DOES NOT NOW APPEAR TO CONTAIN ACTIVE\r\nCONVECTION. ANY EYEWALL THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TO DAY IS NOW GONE\r\nAND SHEARING HAS RESUMED AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR SLOW\r\nWEAKENING. THE LATEST RECON AT 0600 UTC CONFIRMED THIS WEAKENING\r\nWITH AN EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND MAX FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. AFTER AN APPARENT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT\r\nDANIEL IS BACK ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KT THAT WILL MOVE IT\r\nPARALLEL TO BUT OFFSHORE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE MODEL FORECAST\r\nTRACKS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.  \r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE ERRATIC IN THEIR\r\nMOVEMENT. RESIDENTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DANIEL UNTIL IT IS FAR FROM THE\r\nISLANDS.\r\n \r\nLARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 22.8N 155.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.6N 157.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 24.5N 159.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.9N 161.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 164.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 31.1N 170.1W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":37,"Date":"2000-08-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 011500\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST TUE AUG 01 2000\r\n\r\n...DANIEL CONTINUING TO WEAKEN NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL IS ABOUT 130 SM\r\nNORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION IS 100 MILES TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THIS CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS FORECAST IN SLOWLY WEAKENING THE MAX WINDS\r\nFROM THE CURRENT 45 MPH ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nT2.5/3.0 FROM THE HONOLULU SATELLITE UNIT. THE MODEL TRACKS ARE\r\nFAIRLY TIGHTLY GROUPED TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nTHE GFDL AND CLIPPER WHICH PREFER A MORE WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION.\r\nTHE CUURENT FORECAST GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK MORE NORTHWEST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWING THE BAM SHALLOW AND TAKING DANIEL AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWEST END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.   \r\n\r\nLARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 22.6N 156.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 157.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.7N 159.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.5N 161.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N 163.8W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 28.6N 169.6W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":38,"Date":"2000-08-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 012100\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST TUE AUG 01 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOVEMENT THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nTAKING ITS FUTURE PATH INTO COOLER AND LESS FAVORABLE WATERS.\r\nCONVECTION MAY TEMPORARILY REFORM OVER THE CENTER AS IT HAS IN\r\nPREVIOUS DAYS BUT GENERAL WEAKENING STILL THE DOMINANT TREND.\r\nFORECAST PATH MOST FOLLOWS BAM SHALLOW AS FUTURE SHEARING INCREASES\r\nAND LOWER AND UPPER WINDS BECOME DIRECTLY OPPOSED TO EACHOTHER.\r\n\r\nMATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 24.3N 157.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 25.2N 159.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 26.4N 162.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 27.8N 165.2W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 29.3N 168.1W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 32.7N 173.4W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":39,"Date":"2000-08-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 020300\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST TUE AUG 01 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DANIELS VORTEX BECAME ONLY BRIEFLY COVERED TODAY\r\nAND IS NOW VERY VISIBLE WITH THE CLOSEST CBS NEARLY A DEGREE TO ITS\r\nNORTH..CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO.\r\nBOTH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO BREAK UP THE STORMS INTEGRITY ALLOWING US TO PROJECT\r\nWEAKENING TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nMATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 24.6N 159.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 25.4N 160.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 26.6N 163.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 28.0N 166.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 29.4N 169.1W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 32.3N 175.1W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":40,"Date":"2000-08-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 020900\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST TUE AUG 01 2000\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL REMAINS EXPOSED AND IS\r\nSTILL BEING PULLED NORTHWESTWARD BY CONVECTION ALONG ITS NORTHERN\r\nFLANK. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED IN TURN BY AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DANIEL. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nIMPACT DANIEL THROUGH 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME THE CONVECTION WILL\r\nLIKELY SUBSIDE AS DANIEL MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND THE TROUGH\r\nLOSES STRENGTH. AT THAT TIME DANIEL IS LIKLEY TO TAKE A MORE\r\nWESTERLY TRACK OUT TO 72 HOURS AND WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 25.1N 160.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 26.0N 161.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 27.2N 164.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 28.2N 166.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 29.1N 169.6W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 29.9N 175.6W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":41,"Date":"2000-08-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 021500\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST WED AUG 02 2000\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF DANIEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING BACK\r\nUNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND IS STILL BEING PULLED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY CONVECTION NOW ALONG ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN\r\nFLANK. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED IN TURN BY AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF DANIEL. THIS LOW HAS STIRRED UP A SURFACE\r\nVORTEX BENEATH IT AND DANIEL IS NOW EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER LOW AND\r\nSURFACE VORTEX. DANIEL IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE UPPER\r\nLEVEL WINDS OVER THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR\r\nDANIEL.\r\n\r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 26.0N 161.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 27.1N 163.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 28.3N 166.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 29.8N 168.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 31.4N 170.9W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 35.2N 175.1W    30 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":42,"Date":"2000-08-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 022100\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST WED AUG 02 2000\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO RETAIN ITS CONVECTION AND STRENGTH DESPITE ITS\r\nMOVE INTO COOLER WATERS. ITS PATH TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE WITH LITTLE SHEAR ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM..EVENTUAL\r\nSHEAR BEYOND 24 HOURS AND FURTHER COOLER SSTS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AS\r\nDANIEL REACHES EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES. WILL ESSENTIALLY FOLLOW\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST..18Z OBJECTIVE AIDS WERE NOT AVAILABLE DUE\r\nTO THE SCHEDULED OUTAGE OF NCEPS IBM.\r\n\r\nMATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 27.9N 163.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 29.2N 166.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 30.8N 170.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 32.4N 174.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 34.1N 177.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 37.4N 174.7E    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":43,"Date":"2000-08-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 030300\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST WED AUG 02 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO RETAIN ITS CONVECTION AND STRENGTH DESPITE ITS\r\nMOVE INTO COOLER WATERS. ITS PATH TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE WITH LITTLE SHEAR ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM..EVENTUAL\r\nSHEAR BEYOND 24 HOURS AND FURTHER COOLER SSTS SHOULD TAKE HOLD AS\r\nDANIEL REACHES EXTRATROPICAL LATITUDES. WILL ESSENTIALLY FOLLOW\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST..18Z OBJECTIVE AIDS WERE NOT AVAILABLE DUE\r\nTO THE SCHEDULED OUTAGE OF NCEPS IBM.\r\n \r\nMATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 28.7N 164.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 29.9N 166.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 31.4N 169.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 32.9N 172.3W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 35.1N 174.4W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 40.4N 175.4W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":44,"Date":"2000-08-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 030900\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST WED AUG 02 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO RETAIN CONVECTION AS IT HAS ALL ALONG...BUT NOW\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS ON ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THIS IS KEEPING IT FROM\r\nWEAKENING AS RAPIDLY AS MIGHT OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED...AND WILL ALSO\r\nCONTINUE TO PULL DANIEL TOWARD THE CONVECTION SIDE OF ITS OTHERWISE\r\nMORE LOGICAL TRACK. DANIEL IS OVER COLDER WATER NOW HOWEVER AND CAN\r\nBE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BUT AS LONG AS\r\nTHE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FUEL THE LOWER PRESSURE AT THE CENTER OF\r\nDANIELS CIRCULATION...WEAKENING WILL BE SLOWED. THE CURRENT TRACK IS\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...INFLUENCED BY THE FINALLY VIABLE GFDL\r\nMODEL OUTPUT...BUT STILL TO THE WEST OF THE GFDL DUE TO THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. THE MRF MODEL EVENTUALLY\r\nTAKES THE SYSTEM EXTRATROPICAL...AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE TURN OF\r\nTHE TRACK TO A MORE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 48\r\nHOURS. OTHER MODELS SEEM TO LOSE THE STORM...BUT ADD ITS ENERGY IN\r\nANY CASE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO THE WEST OF THE DATELINE AT\r\nHIGHER LATITUDES. WHICHEVER MAY BE THE CASE...THE SYSTEM WILL DROP\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... AND\r\nTHEN BE MERGED INTO MID LATITUDE SYNOPTICS.\r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 29.2N 165.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 30.5N 167.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 32.2N 170.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 34.5N 171.6W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 37.3N 172.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 43.0N 171.4W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":45,"Date":"2000-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 031500\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST THU AUG 03 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION OF DANIEL HAS ALL BUT COLLAPSED AT THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS FAR TO OUR NORTH. WITHOUT THIS\r\nCONVECTION THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. THE TRACK IS KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND NOT FAR TO THE WEST OF THE BETA ADVECTION SHALLOW MODEL AND THE\r\nGFDL. \r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 30.3N 167.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 31.8N 169.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 34.3N 171.1W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 37.2N 172.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 40.3N 171.8W    DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 46.3N 170.0W    DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":46,"Date":"2000-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 032100\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST THU AUG 03 2000\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION OF DANIEL AS THE\r\nSYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TRACK NORTHWESTWARD INTO COLDER WATERS.  DANIEL\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT FEELS THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 36 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS WEAK...BAMD AND BAMM ARE TOO FAR TO THE WEST...WHILE BAMS\r\nIS CLOSER TO THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nKODAMA/CRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 31.1N 168.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 32.4N 169.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 34.6N 171.1W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 37.8N 171.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":47,"Date":"2000-08-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 040300\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST THU AUG 03 2000\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO JUST SOUTH OF A\r\nWELL EXPOSED LLCC. SINCE THERE IS NO CURVED BANDING... THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.5 OR 30 KT IS BASED ON PATTERN T RATHER THAN\r\nDATA T. CONFIDENCE IN THE 00Z POSITION IS GOOD.\r\n\r\nDANIEL APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT PUNCHES THROUGH\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TURNING DANIEL\r\nTO THE RIGHT BEFORE IT DISSIPATES AT 36 HOURS. THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LAST FORECAST TRACK AND TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS. THE BETA\r\nADVECTION MODELS LIE FARTHER TO THE WEST. \r\n \r\nCRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 31.8N 169.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 33.2N 170.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 35.8N 171.1W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 39.3N 170.9W    DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":48,"Date":"2000-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 040900\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST THU AUG 03 2000\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN DANIEL OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. SOME WEAK\r\nCONVECTION 100 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BEING SHEARED TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTH SOUTHWEST. DANIEL HAS BECOME A VERY SHALLOW SYSTEM WITH\r\nWARM CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER MAKING CLASSIFICATION ON IT\r\nVERY DIFFICULT. DVORAK ESTIMATE WAS BASED ON PATTERN AND MET T\r\nNUMVERS OF 1.5 ON WHICH THE FINAL T WAS BASED. DANIEL'S TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PAST OFFICIAL AND THE BAM SHALLOW.\r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 32.8N 169.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 34.4N 170.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 36.8N 171.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 39.5N 170.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 42.0N 170.4W    DISSIPATED\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":49,"Date":"2000-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 041500\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THERE REMAINS SOME CONVECTION 125\r\nMILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT DANIEL HAS ONLY A VERY SHALLOW\r\nCIRCULATION AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS AS ITS\r\nMOISTURE IS ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRA TROPICAL SYSTEM TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST. \r\n \r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 33.8N 170.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 35.5N 171.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 38.2N 170.9W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 41.0N 170.5W    DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":50,"Date":"2000-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 042100\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO HANG IN THERE IN SPITE OF PERSISTENT SHEARING.\r\nBECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...A WELL EXPOSED LLCC LIES ALMOST A FULL DEGREE\r\nNORTH OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN SPARSE THE LAST 24 HOURS AND HAS DECREASED FURTHER OVER THE\r\nLAST THREE HOURS. DANIEL IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS\r\nIT IS ABSORBED INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TO ITS NORTH...BUT WE MAY BE\r\nABLE TO DISCONTINUE BULLETINS ON THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS. CRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 34.4N 170.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 36.0N 170.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 38.4N 170.4W    DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":51,"Date":"2000-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 050300\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL JUST WON T GIVE UP. IN FACT THE SYSTEM LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER\r\nTHAN IT DID 6 HOURS AGO. BECAUSE OF HIS PERSEVERANCE...AM OBLIGED TO\r\nEXTEND THE FORECAST THROUGH ANOTHER 24 HOURS. NOTHING MUCH HAS\r\nCHANGED SINCE THE LAST BULLETIN WITH SHEARING PUTTING A WELL EXPOSED\r\nLLCC NORTH OF A PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM. EVENTUALLY...DANIEL WILL\r\nEITHER DISSIPATE OR BLEND INTO A STATIONARY TROUGH TO ITS NORTH.\r\nCRAIG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 35.5N 170.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 37.2N 170.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 39.9N 170.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Daniel","Adv":52,"Date":"2000-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA41 PHFO 050900\r\nTCDCP1\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nDANIEL GIVES UP! DEEP CONVECTION HAS CEASED WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF DANIEL AS THE STORM IS DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATER.\r\nWHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nDISSIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE LAST BULLETIN\r\nON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFARRELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 36.7N 170.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 38.5N 171.0W    DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-07-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2000\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 540 MILES SOUTH OF CABO SAN\r\nLUCAS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. ALTHOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS CENTRALIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE\r\nOVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND SUPPORTS AT LEAST\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY. A 0748Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A\r\nTIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE 85H CHANNEL LOCATED ABOUT 60NM\r\nNORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN THE 37H CHANNEL. SUBJECTIVE\r\nFIXES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT THE MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0...30 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUPPORT STARTING THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/09. TD SEVEN-E IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCLIPER AND BAMD MODELS. THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN INDICATES A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 30N LATITUDE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM\r\nWHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE DEEP EASTERLIES STEERING FLOW.\r\n\r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A LARGE CURVED BAND\r\nFEATURE MAINLY IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE WHICH SUGGESTS THAT TD SEVEN-E\r\nIS NOT FAR FROM BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTAKES THE INTENSITY UP AT THE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER 24 HOURS\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GENERAL LEVELING OFF IN INTENSITY AFTERWARDS\r\nAS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 26C OR COOLER SSTS. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE SYSTEM\r\nREACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 15.5N 108.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.2N 109.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.1N 111.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.9N 112.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE\r\nDURING THE DAY...AT LEAST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  WHILE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT 18Z...AN\r\nINNER CONVECTIVE REGION HAS SINCE FORMED WITH A RAGGED OUTER BAND\r\nWRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND IT.  ON THIS BASIS...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO 35 KT TROPICAL STORM EMILIA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL RIDGING NORTHWEST OF EMILIA.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE STORM WESTWARD.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE BASED ON THE AVN MODEL GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.\r\nHOWEVER...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN.  IT IS\r\nUNCLEAR WHAT COULD CAUSE THIS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nTRACKS OF THE AVN-BASED MODELS.\r\n \r\nWHILE EMILIA SHOWS AN EXCELLENT BANDING PATTERN AT THIS TIME...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LARGE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THE CONVECTION IS\r\nNOT VERY CONCENTRATED.  THUS...IT IS NOT LIKELY TO SPIN UP AS\r\nRAPIDLY AS DANIEL DID.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES EMILIA TO NEAR MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND MAKES EMILIA A HURRICANE IN 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY\r\nWEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER.  HOWEVER...IF EMILIA TAKES LONGER TO\r\nCONSOLIDATE THAN FORECAST...IT MAY NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nBEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD WATER. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 16.0N 108.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 109.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 17.3N 111.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.2N 113.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 116.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A VERY WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND ORGANIZATION...IN FACT THE PATTERN RESEMBLES A\r\nBANDING TYPE-EYE.  BUT THE CONVECTION IS NEITHER STRONG NOR\r\nCONCENTRATED NEAR THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION YET.  T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 2.5+ AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS...WINDS ARE\r\nINCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS LOW AND VERY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...EMILIA HAS ONLY 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATERS TO\r\nREACH HURRICANE STATUS.  THEREAFTER...A STEADY STATE FOLLOWED BY A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WHICH\r\nCALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD TRACK AS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF EMILIA BUILDS WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nRELIABLE UK MODEL ALONG WITH NOGAPS BUILD THE RIDGE STRONGER THAN\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS AND TAKE EMILIA ON MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. IF\r\nTHIS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...EMILIA WILL BE OVER WARM WATER MUCH\r\nLONGER AND INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AT\r\nTHIS TIME...THE PREFERRED OPTION IS TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND THE AVN MODEL AND NOT THE UK/NOGAPS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 16.4N 109.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.2N 111.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 116.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 121.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n\r\nEMILIA IS NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE ON IR IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. \r\nTHERE IS A LACK OF DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...OVERALL THE\r\nCENTRAL FEATURES ARE RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING.  IT IS PRESUMED THAT\r\nTHIS IS A TEMPORARY CONDITION AND SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES...AND SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  AS DISCUSSED\r\nEARLIER...IF THE STORM TURNS MORE SHARPLY TO THE LEFT THAN FORECAST\r\nTHEN IT WILL REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS AND COULD STRENGTHEN MORE\r\nTHAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED EITHER ON IR OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/8.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nSHOWS A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT\r\n3 DAYS.  WITH THIS PATTERN...A MORE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT IS\r\nLIKELY TO EVOLVE.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE SYSTEM\r\nGRADUALLY WESTWARD...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODEL\r\nTRACKS...EXCEPT FOR THE U. K. MET. OFFICE AND GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE\r\nA DEGREE OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF MY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 16.8N 110.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 17.3N 111.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 117.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS STILL NOT MAKING MUCH OF AN IMPRESSION ON IR IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n45...45...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SHEAR IS\r\nLIGHT AND EMILIA SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST 24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY WARM\r\nWATER...SO SOME SHORT-TERM STRENGTHING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY BUT MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 305/9.  BOTH THE NCEP AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A 500 MB\r\nRIDGE WESTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  WITH\r\nTHIS PATTERN...A MORE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE.\r\n\r\nIN FACT...THE UKMET DRIVES EMILIA TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS...\r\nBUT A SIMILAR FORECAST YESTERDAY HAS SO FAR FAILED TO VERIFY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nIF THE UKMET IS CORRECT AND EMILIA REMAINS SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK...THEN THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 17.6N 111.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 18.4N 112.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 114.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 19.6N 116.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF EMILIA THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING THE BEGINNINGS OF AN\r\nEYEWALL.  FOR A TIME THERE WAS A CLEAR SPOT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 50\r\nAND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z.  ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nEMILIA ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING 305/12.  THE AVN AND UKMET BOTH\r\nHINT AT A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE THAT\r\nMAY BE INCREASING THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW.  THIS TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS LESS NET\r\n72 H DISPLACEMENT NOW THAN IT DID 6 HOURS AGO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE MORE RAPID MOTION TODAY...EMILIA WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER\r\nWATER WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED UNTIL THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 18.6N 112.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 114.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 20.3N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 120.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 21.0N 124.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN\r\nFACT...IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THIS TIME.  EMILIA IS ABOUT TO MOVE IN A FEW HOURS OVER\r\nWATERS COOLER THAN 26C SO...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST COULD BE\r\nTHE LAST GASP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.  MOST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT HAVE REACHED THE AREA\r\nNORTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND THIS SEASON HAVE WEAKENED RAPIDLY. \r\nANOMALOUS COLD WATERS STILL PREVAIL IN THIS REGION.\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS MOVING 300/11.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY...SO A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS\r\nINDICATED.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 19.0N 113.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N 115.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N 124.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nEMILIA LOOKS DISTINCTLY UNHEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...AS MOST OF THE\r\nASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 65 KT...55 KT...AND 55 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY...THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND THE MOTION OVER COOLER\r\nWATER SUGGESTS A SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITY.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nSET TO 50 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER ARIZONA...NEW MEXICO...AND NORTHWEST\r\nMEXICO.  THERE IS ALSO A TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG 120W N OF 17N. \r\nTHIS COMBINATION SUGGESTS A CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOTION.  HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE EMILIA IS MOVING INTO TO COOLER WATER AND SHOULD WEAKEN...LOW\r\nLEVEL STEERING SHOULD EVENTUALLY DOMINATE.  THIS WOULD TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER\r\nIDEA...CALLING FOR AN INITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nWESTWARD TURN.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR FROM\r\nTHE TROUGH TO THE WEST.  A COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE COOLER WATER\r\nMEANS THE STORM IS IN TROUBLE.  THE QUESTION IS HOW FAST WILL IT\r\nWEAKEN?  STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING...\r\nWITH EMILIA SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE (EVEN TROPICAL STORM)\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH DISSIPATE\r\nTHE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 60 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nFASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST AS\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDN.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IF\r\nEMILIA DISSIPATED BEFORE 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE BASIS OF SSM/I\r\nAND QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 19.8N 114.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.6N 116.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 21.3N 118.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 21.8N 120.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 22.0N 122.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF EMILIA...BUT\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 50 KT BASED ON\r\nTHE NEW CONVECTIVE BURST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 45 TO 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\nEMILIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE WEAKENING. AFTERWARDS...\r\nEMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST AS THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER DECOUPLES FROM THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OWING TO\r\nTHE SYSTEM PASSING OVER VERY COLD WATER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE GFDL THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW\r\nBAM MODELS AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY REDEVLOPED...THE GENERAL TREND\r\nSHOULD BE FOR AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS\r\nEMILIA PASSES OVER MUCH COLDER...21C TO 22C... WATER AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES EMILIA AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFDL LOSES\r\nTHE SYSTEM AFTER 24 HOURS. WITH GOOD EAST TO SOUTHEAST WARM MOIST\r\nINFLOW CONTINUING...THE CONVECTION MAY HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN\r\nTHE MODELS ARE INDICATING AND WE HAVE KEPT THE INTENSITIES SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 20.3N 114.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 116.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 21.6N 118.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N 120.4W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 22.0N 126.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-07-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING AROUND THE CENTER\r\nOF TROPICAL STORM EMILIA...BUT THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STEADY\r\nWEAKENING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A CURRENT T-\r\nNUMBER OF 3.0...45 KT...FROM KGWC.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS\r\nOWING TO THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER. HOWEVER...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTRACK IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING. AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE\r\nOFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED\r\nTHE TREND OF THE UKMET IN SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL CONTINUE THE TREND OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING EMILIA AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE PASSES OVER COLD...LESS THAN 23C...SSTS AFTER 18 TO 24\r\nHOURS. EMILIA MAY NOT EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS\r\nACCORDING TO THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 20.4N 116.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 20.9N 117.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 21.4N 119.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 21.7N 121.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.5N 125.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-07-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 28 2000\r\n\r\nEMILIA HAS BEEN WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW\r\nLEVEL-CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION WHICH IS\r\nLOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER\r\nWHICH INDEED ARE ABOUT 1.5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE AREA.  \r\n\r\nEMILIA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 11 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW AND BECAUSE THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME TRACK. \r\nSOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR BEFORE DISSIPATION\r\nIN A DAY OR TWO.  \r\n \r\nRESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR ONLY IF...UNEXPECTEDLY...EMILIA MOVES\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD WARM WATERS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 20.0N 117.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 119.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-07-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF EMILIA HAS BECOME HARD TO FIND...AS THE POSITIONS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 60 NM APART.  WHILE ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS\r\nCURRENTLY PRESENT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 35 KT ON THIS\r\nADVISORY...PARTLY DUE TO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PARTLY DUE TO\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP DURING THE NORMAL\r\nDIURNAL MAXIMUM.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMPLE.  EMILIA IS MOVING 275/10 SOUTH\r\nOF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nTHE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  ONE POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT\r\nSTRONG LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY NORTH AND\r\nWEST OF EMILIA COULD PUSH IT SOUTH OF WEST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF\r\nTHIS HAPPENING SO FAR...AND NONE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS MOVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE S OF 20N.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY SIMPLE.  EMILIA IS TRACKING\r\nINTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH LOTS OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR\r\nOVER AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE...A RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. \r\nTHIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION IN\r\n36-48 HR OR LESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 20.3N 118.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 20.4N 120.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 122.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 124.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-07-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES AT 275/10.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASED ON THE SAME REASONING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DUE WEST\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION...UNDER THE STEERING OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AND\r\nTHIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF MOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nAS SUGGESTED ON THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS BEEN A FLARE-UP\r\nOF CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COLDER WATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 20.5N 119.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 121.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 123.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST\r\nSIX HOURS MAY BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS 265/10 UNTIL DISSIPATION WITH THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWING\r\nA STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON AND ANOTHER FLARE-\r\nUP IS UNLIKELY AS ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 20.2N 120.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N 122.2W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 124.3W    20 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.0N 126.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-07-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 29 2000\r\n\r\nAS FORECAST...EMILIA MOVED OVER COOL WATER AND LOST ALL THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  IT IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY STILL\r\nPRODUCE SOME INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.  EMILIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON\r\nEMILIA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE\r\nCONTAINED IN THE E PAC HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 20.4N 121.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS\r\nBEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE AND MOST\r\nOF THE OUTFLOW LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  BECAUSE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE\r\nINITIAL LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY.  THE OCEAN IS ABOUT 26 OR 27\r\nDEGREES AND THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11. THERE IS A STRONG\r\nHIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A WESTERN STEERING\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 16.0N 114.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 120.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 16.0N 127.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nSEPARATED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW LIMITED TO THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE OCEAN IS WARM...ABOUT 26 OR 27 DEGREES\r\n...AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nOF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS UNCERTAIN.  BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THERE IS A STRONG HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A WESTERN STEERING\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 16.5N 115.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N 117.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 16.8N 119.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 17.0N 123.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2000\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE DUE TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA...VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nSUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME.  QUICKSCAT DATA ALSO\r\nSUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  ONLY A SLOW\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. \r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD\r\nALSO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS WESTWARD NEAR 10 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nSUBSTANTIAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nWESTWARD AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE\r\n18Z AVN MODEL RUN...IN WHICH THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN\r\nINITIALIZED RATHER REASONABLY.  THE GFDL AND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODELS\r\nARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 16.8N 116.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 16.9N 117.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 122.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 124.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO HAS LOST MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nSYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS EXCEPT FOR A RECENT CONVECTIVE\r\nBURST IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BASED ON THE\r\nFULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE\r\nWEST SEMICIRCLE AND SEVERELY RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE DUE TO STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/08. ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FABIO\r\nON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH\r\nWILL ALSO HELP TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TRACKING TO THE\r\nWEST IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MEAN SHEAR VECTOR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE AIDS ENVELOPE...AND CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE UKMET\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AND FABIO WILL MOVE UNDER OR\r\nCLOSE TO A 200 MB RIDGE AXIS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS FABIO TO 55 KT IN\r\n48 HOURS AND THEN LEVELS OFF THROUGH 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nSHEAR LETS UP SOONER THEN EXPECTED...FABIO COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND MORE THAN WE ARE INDICATING...POSSIBLY TO MINIMUM\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED TO FAVOR THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OWING TO THE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR PATTERN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 16.9N 117.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 118.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 17.1N 120.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 17.2N 122.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 125.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF FABIO IS NOW LOCATED UNDER A LARGE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND CONSEQUENTLY THE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND\r\n3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. I NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45\r\nKNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR. A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n\r\nA STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN\r\nAND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP FABIO ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 17.0N 118.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 17.0N 119.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 121.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 124.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 130.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nSTRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS ONCE AGAIN REMOVED MOST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS MEANS THAT FABIO HAS NOT\r\nINTENSIFIED AS EXPECTED AND...IN FACT...IT COULD BE WEAKER THAT\r\nEARLIER TODAY.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE OCEAN IS WARM...ANY\r\nRELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WOULD RESULT IN AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE\r\nSTORM.\r\n  \r\nA STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN\r\nAND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP FABIO ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 16.7N 119.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 123.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 125.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N 127.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF FABIO THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35\r\nKT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES\r\nNORTH OF FABIO...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nMAY OCCUR BY 72 HR...WITH THE BAMM AND BAMD TAKING FABIO TO 13N. \r\nTHIS FORECAST COULD BE DUE EITHER TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OR\r\nTO INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E TO THE EAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT FULL FOLLOW THIS UNCLIMATOLOGICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT WILL SHOW FABIO LOSING A LITTLE LATITUDE BY 72 HR.\r\n\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH FABIO ARE STILL STRONG AND CLOSE\r\nTO THE CENTER.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY\r\nDECREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS...COMBINED WITH A\r\nPOSSIBLE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD WARMER WATER...COULD OPEN THE\r\nDOOR FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A WESTWARD\r\nTRACK AT THE CURRENT LATITUDE WOULD MOVE THE CYCLONE OF MARGINAL\r\nSSTS...WHICH WOULD HAMPER STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCOMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...CALLING FOR SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.6N 123.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.6N 125.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST.\r\nPREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS\r\nBEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND FOR\r\nTHIS REASON WE HAVE HELD THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/09. FABIO IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE EASTERLY\r\nFLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nALSO BY THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ALL OF OUR FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nTRACKS FABIO WESTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nAFTERWARDS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nTHE NOGAPS MODEL...AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD OF\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFABIO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED STATE FOR MOST OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST TO LET UP\r\nSLIGHTLY AND FABIO WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER WARMER SSTS. THE OFFICAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS. HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASES FASTER THAN WE ARE INDICATING...THEN FABIO COULD BECOME A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 16.9N 120.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 17.0N 122.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 124.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 16.7N 128.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 15.9N 132.5W    50 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nFABIO CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH\r\nONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE WITH THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 265/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE OR SYNOPTIC REASONING SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...BUT THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nSOUTHWARD BASED ON WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF THE\r\nANTICIPATED LEFTWARD MOTION.  \r\n\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY RELAX NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...SO WE ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MODEST\r\nRESTRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 16.4N 122.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.1N 123.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.9N 125.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.7N 127.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N 133.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nFABIO IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...JUST ENOUGH TO\r\nMAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY\r\nLESSEN OVER TIME.  IRRESPECTIVE OF THE LONG-TERM SHEAR TENDENCY...\r\nFABIO IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHICH WOULD\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE THE WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHEREFORE...MODEST STRENGTHING IS FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND MIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN DIRECTION...WEST TO WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ARE CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE BAROTROPIC MODELS AND THE NAVY NOGAPS.  THE AVN SUGGESTS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 16.0N 122.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.7N 124.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.3N 126.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 14.9N 127.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 129.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N 132.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF FABIO CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED NORTHEAST\r\nOF INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 30 KT.  AS THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE GETTING WEAKER AND FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...\r\nFABIO IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES\r\nNORTH AND NORTHWEST OF FABIO... WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE CYCLONE\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE GENERALLY\r\nAGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION\r\nAND SPEED.  THE LBAR CALLS FOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK...WHILE THE\r\nNHC91 IS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.  THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A FASTER MOTION\r\nTO 13N139W BY 72 HR...WHILE THE SLOWER BAM MODELS ARE CLUSTERED NEAR\r\n14N132W AT THAT TIME.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE UKMET MODEL INDICATES\r\nINTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE MOTION OF FABIO COULD BE QUITE\r\nERRATIC.\r\n\r\nIF THE SHEAR EVER DECREASES...FABIO IS LIKELY TO STAY OVER WATER\r\nWARM ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE\r\nSHEAR MAY DECREASE...AND THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY TAKING\r\nFABIO TO 60 KT IN 72 HR.  SINCE FABIO IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST BACKS OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 16.1N 123.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.9N 125.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.7N 126.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 15.4N 128.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 15.0N 130.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 14.5N 133.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nFABIO CONTINUES AS A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION ABOUT 60 NM SW OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE ALL 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOT INDICATING AS MUCH SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION AS 6 HR AGO.\r\nTHIS MAY BE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF GILMA TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER AT THE END DUE TO THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF GILMA.  IF\r\nFABIO AND GILMA DO INTERACT AS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND UKMET\r\nMODELS... THE SMALLER FABIO COULD HAVE SOME VERY ERRATIC MOTION. \r\n\r\nFABIO CONTINUES UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE.  DESPITE THIS...THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP THE SYSTEM...AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AFTER 24\r\nHR.  HOWEVER...IF CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES THE\r\nCYCLONE MAY DISSIPATE INSTEAD OF STRENGTHEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 15.9N 124.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.8N 125.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.6N 127.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.4N 128.9W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N 130.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 14.5N 133.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM..COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nFORECASTER NAME\r\n\r\nFABIO HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT CONTINUES AS\r\nA WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  FABIO IS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH IS FORCING\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.\r\nBECAUSE FABIO IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR COULD\r\nRELAX...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME REINTENSIFICATION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 15.4N 125.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 126.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.5N 127.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N 129.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N 131.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 14.5N 133.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF FABIO IS BECOMING ELONGATED FROM THE EFFECTS OF\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND BY THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA.  VIS SATELLITE LOOPS CLEARLY SHOW SOME OF LOW-\r\nCLOUDS DEFINING THE CIRCULATION OF FABIO MOVING TOWARD GILMA. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE LESS THAT 25 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 12 HOURS BUT WILL LIKELY\r\nPRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON FABIO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST\r\nISSUED BY THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 15.0N 125.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.5N 125.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 126.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 04 2000\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO CONSOLIDATED \r\nRATHER REMARKABLY THIS EVENING...WITH LARGE BANDS OF CONVECTION\r\nDEVELOPING NORTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  QUIKSCAT\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A SURFACE CIRCULATION WAS PRESENT\r\nBEFORE THE LATEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THUS...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A TRIFLE UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\n295/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A LARGE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. \r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO AHEAD OF IT IS MOVING WEST...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nNHC91.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD OUTFLOW AND STRONG CONVECTION...AND LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS FORECAST CONTINUED FAVORABLE UPPER WINDS.  THUS...\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES THE\r\nSYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD HAPPEN\r\nEARLIER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 14.1N 105.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.9N 107.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 15.6N 110.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.2N 112.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 114.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N 117.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nOVERNIGHT...AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO TROPICAL STORM GILMA BASED ON A\r\nSMALL CDO FEATURE NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM SAB AT 0600Z.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. TROPICAL STORM GILMA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AFTER THAT AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE AND\r\nWE ARE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nA STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF ONE DVORAK T-NUMBER PER DAY IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER TREND AFTER THAT. GILMA IS\r\nOVER 28C SST WATER AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\n...WHICH ALSO FAVORS STEADY INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 14.9N 107.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 15.7N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 110.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 17.0N 117.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GILMA IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN ON THE FIRST\r\nCOUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES...WHICH IMPARTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY TO\r\nALL ASPECTS OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  CONVECTION IS ELONGATED\r\nNORTH-SOUTH...AND THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 12Z PLACED THE CENTER OVER 60 MILES NORTH OF\r\nWHERE I HAVE IT.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 290/10.  THIS\r\nPACKAGE IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR.  IF THE QUIKSCAT IS RIGHT...IT\r\nWILL BE NECESSARY TO ADJUST BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\nLATER TODAY.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS GILMA TO 79 KT BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND AN EXPERIMENTAL MODEL FROM MIT SUGGESTS 80 KT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY...ALTHOUGH\r\nA MORE NORTHERLY MOTION WOULD TEND TO LIMIT THIS STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 15.0N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.2N 111.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.4N 113.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY TODAY HAS NOT DONE MUCH TO HELP DEFINE THE LOCATION\r\nOF GILMA...AND IN FACT...MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN\r\nOBSERVED MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE MOST PROMINENT AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THERE IS LIKELY NOT ANY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NO HIGHER\r\nTHAN 30 KT.  GIVEN THESE...AND THE POOR ORGANIZATION...GILMA IS\r\nBEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY.  IF THE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR LESSENS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS... THE\r\nWATER WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT REINTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH FORECASTS 69 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE\r\nHARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE BROAD LARGER-SCALE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN\r\nRELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nSUBTLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH NO LONGER BEND THE TRACK\r\nTO THE LEFT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS APPARENTLY\r\nIN RESPONSE TO A FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 15.9N 108.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N 109.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N 110.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 17.4N 112.9W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 05 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH A CENTER THAT IS VERY DIFFICULT\r\nTO LOCATE.  WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF STRONG CONVECTION CURRENTLY\r\nOCCURRING...IT IS DISPLACED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER IN A\r\nPATTERN THAT IS NEITHER A BAND NOR A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. \r\nTHUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 290/10.  THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF GILMA SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN\r\nSOME AFTER 48 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN WHICH CALLS FOR A MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER TO MATCH THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nGILMA IS SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE EAST...\r\nWHERE IT IS FAIR TO POOR.  THUS...THE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPUZZLING.  SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE\r\nONE CHANGE IS AT 72 HR...WHERE THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BE\r\nMOVING INTO COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 16.5N 109.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 111.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS DEVELOPED A MASSIVE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OF THE TYPE\r\nUSUALLY SEEN IN MAJOR HURRICANES...AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF BANDING\r\nAND ROTATION IN THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  THAT BEING SAID...TRMM AND\r\nSSM/I OVERPASSES NEAR 0230Z AND 0330Z SUGGESTED THE CENTER WAS STILL\r\nBROAD AND EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT IN THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS 290/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nSYNOPTIC SITUATION OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THERE ARE TWO POSSIBLE COMPLICATIONS TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST.  FIRST...THE CENTER MIGHT NEED TO BE RE-LOCATED WHEN\r\nDAYLIGHT COMES.  SECOND...THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nGILMA MAY INTERACT WITH FABIO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THAT\r\nWILL BE DEALT WITH IF AND WHEN IT HAPPENS.\r\n\r\nWHILE GILMA MAINTAINS GOOD OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS\r\nARE UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE.  THIS MAY BE\r\nSLOWING INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS CERTAINLY NOT SLOWING THE\r\nCONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL 48 HR FOLLOWED A\r\nSTEADY STATE AS GILMA MOVES INTO COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 16.8N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.3N 112.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.9N 114.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.6N 116.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n\r\nFINALLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...\r\nAPPEARS TO BE UNDER THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED.  THEREFORE...GILMA...ONCE\r\nAGAIN...IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE GILMA MAY\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. \r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING 285/08 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-\r\nLEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ERODE THE\r\nWESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER GILMA ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 17.1N 111.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 112.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N 116.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BANDING FEATURES AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER BUT EASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THE OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  GILMA HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nGILMA IS MOVING 290/10 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE PACIFIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EITHER MAINTAIN OR\r\nWEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER GILMA ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 17.7N 112.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 18.2N 114.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 115.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.7N 117.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 06 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KNOTS.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BANDING FEATURES AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  GILMA HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nOVER WARMER WATERS TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nGILMA IS MOVING 295/10 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE PACIFIC. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE THIS SPEED AND DIRECTION BUT TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY\r\nDIRECTION BETWEEN 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER\r\nTHE COOLER WATERS.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 18.1N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.7N 115.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.4N 117.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.2N 118.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 20.8N 120.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 21.0N 124.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA HAS INTENSIFIED OVERNIGHT BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBROUGHT UP TO 60 KT AND GILMA IS VERY NEAR MINIMAL HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND GILMA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT AS THE\r\nSYSTEM ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\nTHIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CLIPER...GFDN AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE CDO FEATURE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WITH\r\nA HINT OF A WARM SPOT DEVELOPING IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY. GILMA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE THAN WE ARE INDICATING. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY\r\nOVER 28C TO 29C SSTS AND THOSE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH WHICH SUGGESTS SOME RESTRICTION OR SHEAR...AND\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ONLY TAKES GILMA UP TO 65 TO 70 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 18.5N 114.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.8N 118.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 20.3N 120.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 20.6N 122.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 20.8N 125.2W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE MORNING...WITH\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT AND 55\r\nKT...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nMOTION IS 285/10.  A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF GILMA SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nSTORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 24-36 HR.  THE UNCERTAINTY\r\nINCREASES AFTER THAT TIME...AS LARGE-SCALE MODEL INDICATE A\r\nWEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT COULD ALLOW A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  SINCE THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY STRONG...A\r\nWESTWARD TURN IS ALSO POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER\r\nWATER AND WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER...MORE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nGILMA MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 12-24 HR.  SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY AFTER THAT TIME.  SHOULD GILMA MOVE MORE NORTHWEST THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 18.7N 115.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.2N 117.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N 119.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 20.3N 121.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 125.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF GILMA IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION...SLIGHTLY OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 75 KT...55\r\nKT...AND 55 KT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 285/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND MANY OF THE NHC TRACK MODELS STILL CALL FOR A\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF GILMA. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFDL NOW CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...WHICH ADDS\r\nCONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT WESTWARD TURNING FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nGILMA APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO IT IS\r\nLESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER\r\nWATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS 60 KT FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY\r\nA SLOW AND STEADY WEAKENING.  SHOULD GILMA MOVE MORE NORTHWEST THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nWIND AND SEA RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON THE BASIS OF SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 18.6N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 117.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 120.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 126.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 07 2000\r\n \r\nLATE VISIBLE IMAGERY HELPED TO IDENTIFY THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF\r\nGILMA WITH GREATER CONFIDENCE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n280/7...QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THIS MIGHT INDICATE\r\nTHAT GILMA IS ABOUT TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...A TRACK\r\nWHICH THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN REPEATEDLY...AND SO FAR\r\nUNSUCCESSFULLY...SUGGESTING.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A CUTOFF LOW\r\nTHAT CAN BE SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TEMPORARY RIGHTWARD TURN...AND THEN A\r\nBEND BACK TO THE WEST AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS OUT LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE STORM TRACKS OVER COOLER\r\nWATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 18.7N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 118.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 19.3N 119.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N 121.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N 123.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gilma","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS SHOWN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS AND ALSO IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITIES RANGE FROM 75 TO 85 KT...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED\r\nBY TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 KT. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ONLY RAISED TO 65 KT...MINIMAL HURRICANE...BASED ON THE\r\nRAGGED 30 NM DIAMETER EYE SEEN IN SSMI AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. GILMA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTERACT\r\nWITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL TO THE NORTH WHICH\r\nWILL SLOWLY TURN THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD BY 36 HOURS. THIS TRACK\r\nSCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF OUR FORECAST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACKS REMIANS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL\r\nENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE CLIPER MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nCIRCULAR OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS A RESULT...GILMA MAY INTENSIFY A\r\nLITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 19.0N 117.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 19.3N 119.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 19.9N 120.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 20.4N 122.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 20.7N 124.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 20.5N 128.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gilma","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA SHOWS A COLD OVERCAST WITH SIGNS OF BANDING.  AN 0948Z TRMM\r\nOVERPASS DID NOT SHOW THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT AND 65 KT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nMID/UPPER RIDGE NORTH OF GILMA...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG\r\n130W N OF 25N.  A LOW LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES NORTH AND NORTH OF THE\r\nSTORM.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION AS GILMA WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER. \r\nDYNAMIC FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHICH IS AT\r\nABOUT A 30 DEGREE ANGLE TO HOW THE STORM IS MOVING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nNHC91 AND CLIPER.\r\n\r\nGILMA SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW...BUT IT IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO\r\nCOOLER WATER.  THUS IT SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY TODAY AND STEADILY\r\nWEAKEN THEREAFTER.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH IT ALSO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 19.1N 118.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N 121.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N 123.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 125.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.0N 129.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gilma","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS APPARENTLY PEAKED...AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME RAGGED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 70 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH THAT\r\nMIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GILMA IS MOVING 285/8\r\nAND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AFTER 24-36 HR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...NOGAPS...AND NHC91.\r\n\r\nGILMA IS MOVING OVER 25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND APPEARS TO BE\r\nENTRAINING STRATOCUMULUS.  SINCE THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PARALLEL TO\r\nTHE SST GRADIENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW BUT\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING.  IF GILMA MOVES MORE TO THE NORTH...IT WILL WEAKEN\r\nFASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 19.4N 119.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 19.7N 120.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.2N 122.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 20.8N 124.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 21.0N 126.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 130.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-08-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 08 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 55 TO 77 KT...WITH THE LATTER NUMBER FORCED BY THE DVORAK\r\nCONSTRAINTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT WITH THIS\r\nADVISORY...MAKING GILMA A TROPICAL STORM.  THE DECAY STAGE HAS\r\nBEGUN...AS GILMA IS OVER MARGINAL WATER NOW THAT WILL ONLY GET\r\nCOOLER WITH TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...BUT THERE WERE HINTS OF A LOW-LEVEL\r\nSWIRL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE LAST VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY.  I HAVE NOT FOLLOWED THAT SWIRL FOR THIS PACKAGE BUT HAVE\r\nSTAYED WITH THE CONVECTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME...\r\nNAMELY THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF GILMA AND TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nMORE TOWARDS THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 20.0N 120.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 121.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.2N 123.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 21.7N 124.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 22.0N 131.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-08-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED.   THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55\r\nKNOTS AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED SINCE GILMA IS OVER MARGINAL WATER\r\nNOW THAT WILL ONLY GET COOLER WITH TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO\r\nKEEP GILMA ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK.  A TURN MORE TO WEST IS\r\nEXPECTED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS GILMA WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 20.3N 121.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 122.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 21.5N 124.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 126.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n\r\n2-CHANNEL COMBINATION IR IMAGERY AND SSM/I DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION.  THUS THE CURRENT\r\nADVISORY POSITION IS A RELOCATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  A WEAK LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A STEERING\r\nCURRENT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH\r\nA GRADUAL BEND MORE TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...AND CURRENTLY DIMINISHING.  GILMA IS\r\nMOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 25 DEG C. \r\nTHEREFORE A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 20.9N 120.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.4N 122.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.0N 123.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 22.5N 125.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N 130.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07.  THERE IS A 500 MB LOW NEAR\r\nCALIFORNIA WHICH HAS BEEN CONTRIBUTING TO GILMAS NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  BUT THE AVIATION AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE LOW MOVING\r\nOFF TO THE NORTHEAST SUCH THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN GILMA\r\nBACK TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n\r\nGILMA IS MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nINDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING.  THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nREMAINING...SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nDECREASED TO 35 KNOTS.  GILMA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 21.4N 121.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 122.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N 123.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.1N 124.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 23.6N 126.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 09 2000\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB\r\nWASHINGTON...AND 25 KNOTS FROM AFWA.  GILMA HAS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF\r\nLINGERING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING IN A\r\nDAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES HEADING INTO COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/07.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A\r\nGRADUAL FILLING IN OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GILMA.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THIS IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GFDL...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 22.0N 122.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.6N 122.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 23.2N 124.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.6N 125.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n\r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LINGER TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS...ROUGHLY\r\nTHE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  GILMA\r\nIS FORECAST TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nNEAR 24 DEG C...AND IT SHOULD BE DISSIPATING SOON.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND MOTION IS ABOUT 305/06.  THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR PROGNOSTIC REASONING.  THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO BUILD SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nGILMA.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TO THE LEFT. \r\nTHIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PATH FOLLOWED BY THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM\r\nMODEL...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 22.2N 122.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N 123.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 23.3N 124.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 23.7N 126.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 24.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH INTERMITTENT CONVECTION TO\r\nMAINTAIN DEPRESSION STATUS.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 35 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0229Z SHOWED NO\r\nWINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT AND THIS IS THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATE FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/6.  SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 22.3N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N 123.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 23.1N 125.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 23.5N 127.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 24.0N 129.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  THE QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 13Z STILL SHOWED SOME 25 KT VECTORS SO THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nBE KEPT ALIVE FOR ONE MORE CYCLE.  IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RECUR THEN\r\nTHE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE THE LAST.  A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nREMNANTS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 22.2N 123.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 22.3N 124.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 22.5N 125.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N 128.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND IS DISSIPATING.  THE\r\nREMNANT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD\r\nFOLLOWING THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GILMA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 22.3N 123.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 22.5N 124.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 22.6N 125.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A REPORT FROM SHIP ELXB9 INDICATE THAT THE\r\nAREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS BECOME\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WELL ORGANIZED TO BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. \r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS STILL BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nWHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN WANING SOME THIS AFTERNOON...THERE REMAINS\r\nA HEALTHY BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION.  OUTFLOW LOOKS\r\nQUITE GOOD BUT THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF HISTORY BUT IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 270/14.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN INITIAL TRACK TO\r\nTHE WEST FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHWESTERLY TURN.  THE LATTER MAY BE DUE TO\r\nSTRONG MODEL DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.  ASSUMING THAT THE MODELS HAVE OVERDONE THIS\r\nDEVELOPMENT...I KEEP A DUE WEST TRACK WITH SOME SLOWDOWN IN SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 64 KT IN 60\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THIS\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT HURRICANE INTENSITY IS NOT FORECAST DUE TO DECREASING\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IF THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES SLOWER THAN FORECAST THEN HURRICANE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE\r\nATTAINED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 18.0N 107.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 109.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N 114.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 10 2000\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  THE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT...A TYPICAL DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. \r\nTHE ASSOCIATED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FAIRLY\r\nIMPRESSIVE AND TROPICAL STORM STATUS SHOULD BE ATTAINED ON FRIDAY. \r\nSINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LOOKS FAVORABLE...IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS MODEL RUN QUITE CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM IS BROAD AND THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL \r\nDEFINED...CENTER FIXES AND INITIAL MOTION ARE STILL RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN.  THE 18Z RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A 500 MB\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO A\r\nCONTINUED GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GFDL MODEL IS THE ODD MAN OUT IN THE MODEL\r\nSUITE...SHOWING A MOTION THAT IS TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER IN\r\nCOMPARISON TO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 17.7N 108.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N 110.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.0N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nAND THE CENTER APPEARS ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH SO THAT MOST OF THE\r\nLOCATION ERROR COULD BE IN THE NORTH SOUTH DIRECTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...270/14.  THE\r\n11/00Z AVIATION MODEL BUILDS A RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK. \r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE OTHERS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER BUT IT IS\r\nELONGATED AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BELOW STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...NOT AS MUCH AS\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SINCE THE GFDL SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 60 HOURS AND THE\r\nUKMET ALSO CALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS RATHER LARGE AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII ARE\r\nINCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON THIS BASIS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 17.7N 110.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N 112.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 116.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N 121.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS\r\nCLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT NOT QUITE THERE.  WHILE\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WEST OF THE CENTER...IT IS HAVING\r\nTROUBLE CONSISTENTLY WRAPPING AROUND IT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN\r\nAT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF THE CENTER THAT\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THE WESTWARD MOTION.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...WITH A FAIRLY TYPICAL SPREAD BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACKS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE\r\nIS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR IT NOT TO STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR...WHEN THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE...THAT IS\r\nNOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 18.0N 110.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.1N 112.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.2N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 116.6W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.5N 118.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 122.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E IS HAVING TROUBLE GETTING ITS ACT\r\nTOGETHER.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND\r\nHINT THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB ARE 35 KT...30 KT...\r\nAND 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SO\r\nTHERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THAT\r\nCHANGE IS A SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE\r\nIS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR...WHEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE...THAT IS\r\nNOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 18.3N 112.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N 114.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.8N 116.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.9N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 124.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 11 2000\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER.  A SHIP\r\nWITH CALL SIGN C6RHB REPORTED 31-KNOT WINDS ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...A\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS APPROXIMATELY HALFWAY AROUND THE SYSTEM...\r\nYIELDING A DATA T NUMBER OF 2.5.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE\r\nAIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.\r\nTHEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES\r\nGOOD.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY\r\nBE LIMITED BY THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IN FACT... EXPERIMENTAL\r\nSST ANALYSES FROM NOAA/NESDIS INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS MOVING OVER\r\nA COOL WAKE PRODUCED BY EMILIA AND GILMA.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nMAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO A\r\nCONTINUED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST TRACK IS THE MOST REASONABLE\r\nFORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nNHC91.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 18.7N 113.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.1N 115.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.7N 120.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.8N 122.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N 126.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12.  THE 12/00Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nBUILDS A RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR AND THIS SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS\r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KNOTS. \r\nOTHERWISE THE REMAINING CLOUD PATTERN IS NICELY SYMMETRIC WITH GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW AND BANDING ALL AROUND.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. \r\nSSTS ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD FALL BELOW 25 DEGREES C AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 18.7N 115.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.2N 119.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.4N 121.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM...COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n \r\n..COR FOR POSITIONS\r\n \r\nHECTOR HAS DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASING SO...THE WINDS ARE ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT REACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHECTOR HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD.  THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 18.5N 116.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N 117.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 18.5N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 122.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME BANDING FEATURES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF TAFB AND SAB. \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT REACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES HAVE HELPED TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION\r\nOF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR WESTWARD. THEREFORE...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH\r\nOF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 18.2N 116.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.2N 117.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N 122.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 128.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 12 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH\r\nA GOOD BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nINITAL MOTION IS 255/06. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. HECTOR HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS\r\nHELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO EASTERLY...WHICH SHOULD\r\nHELP TO STEER HECTOR ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY HOSTILE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES HECTOR UP TO MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS...AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED THAT\r\nTREND...ALTHOUGH A BREIF INTENSITY OF 70 KT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME.\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS BELOW 25C.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 18.1N 116.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 17.9N 117.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.9N 119.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 18.1N 121.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.3N 123.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.6N 128.0W    50 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A\r\nRIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND ALL OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS INDICATE A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEPT THE STORM AT 55 KNOTS.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BROUGHT HECTOR TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING\r\nIN SIZE AND DEPTH BUT HAS LOOKED A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE FOR THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO PERHAPS HECTOR WILL STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 18.2N 117.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 18.2N 120.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.4N 122.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 18.6N 123.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.2N 127.5W    55 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE CENTER\r\nAPPEARS TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT.  SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES\r\nNOT SUGGEST THAT HECTOR WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05.  THE AVIATION AND UKMET\r\nMODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND\r\nALL OF THE TRACK MODELS INDICATE A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 18.2N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 18.2N 118.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.3N 120.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n\r\nHECTOR APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A BANDING-TYPE EYE WITHIN AN\r\nIRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS OR MINIMAL HURRICANE. NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nTHEREAFTER...HECTOR SHOULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER\r\nWATERS AND WEAKEN \r\n\r\nHECTOR IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF HECTOR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OR STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.  HECTOR SHOULD INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE\r\nGENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 18.2N 118.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.2N 119.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 121.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 129.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR 65 KNOTS.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT\r\n2316Z INDICATED AN 8-10 N MI DIAMETER EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY GOOD. \r\nHECTOR IS PROBABLY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLING BELOW 26 DEG C SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nA SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...NEAR 4 KNOTS...CONTINUES.\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF HECTOR STRENGTHENING A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 18.5N 118.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.6N 119.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 121.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.4N 123.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 125.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 130.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  INTERMITTENTLY...AN EYE WAS NOTED IN THE IMAGERY.  WATER\r\nVAPOR LOOPS SHOW A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX TO THE NORTH OF\r\nHECTOR WHICH HAS BEEN ASSISTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nALTERNATIVELY...IF THIS VORTEX MOVES CLOSER TO HECTOR...IT COULD\r\nINCREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  IN ANY EVENT...THE MAIN FACTOR IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PASSAGE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. \r\nHECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM IN A\r\nDAY OR SO...AND WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THEREAFTER.  THIS IS IN LINE\r\nWITH OUR BEST INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE...SHIPS.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 290/5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A\r\nBIT FARTHER TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...BASED ON\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION AND OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS.  HOWEVER IN VIEW\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF HECTOR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nMOST OF THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 18.8N 119.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 125.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n\r\nHECTOR CONTINUES TO BE A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH AN INTERMITTENT EYE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 65 TO 75 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE\r\nCONVECTION IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 65 KNOTS.  HECTOR SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHEN\r\nIT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nHECTOR IS MOVING 290/07.  THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC\r\nAND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN HECTOR ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED\r\nBY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 19.2N 119.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 125.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 130.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES STILL SHOWS A PERSISTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A\r\nSMALL RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN KEPT\r\nAT 65 KNOTS.  HECTOR SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHEN\r\nIT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS MOVING 300/07.  THERE IS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC\r\nAND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN HECTOR ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED\r\nBY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 19.6N 120.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 20.1N 121.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.0N 124.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 126.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 131.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n\r\nIMAGERY NOW SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  MORE OF\r\nTHE LOW CLOUD LINES ARE BECOMING EXPOSED OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  AN EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES...BUT AN SSM/I IMAGE FROM EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTED\r\nA 10-15 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  THE DEEPER CLOUDS WERE ALSO DISPLACED\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER ON THAT IMAGE...IMPLYING SHEAR.  HECTOR IS\r\nSTARTING TO BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A STABLE AIR MASS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.  GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWING THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nHECTOR IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...310/7...\r\nAPPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE AVN MODEL INDICATES SOME BUILDING OF THE\r\nRIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SO THE FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE\r\nBACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nMEDIUM TO SHALLOW BAM TRACKS...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST.  THIS IS JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 20.2N 120.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 20.9N 121.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N 123.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 23.5N 131.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS AT BEST JUST BARELY A HURRICANE...AND MAY VERY WELL BE\r\nWEAKER.  A 06Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATES THE EYE HAS DISSIPATED...AND\r\nMULTISPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nTRYING TO EXPOSE THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 65 KT...65 KT...AND 45 KT.  HECTOR WILL\r\nREMAIN A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nLOCATED NORTHWEST OF HECTOR...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS\r\nRIDGE SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE EASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nWHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HECTOR TAKING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AT A\r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO\r\nWEAKEN.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nTHE WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING.  HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING BY 72\r\nHR...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SHEAR PERSISTS OR IF THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 20.7N 121.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 21.3N 122.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 22.1N 124.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N 126.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 129.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 134.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nHECTOR HAS LOST ALL OF ITS CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND\r\n...AS A RESULT...HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE SYSTEM CENTER...HECTOR SHOULD MAINLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND BETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nHECTOR SHOULD STEADILY SPIN DOWN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD TO THE NORTH\r\nAND WEST. THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nSYSTEM CENTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD\r\nBE FOR STEADY WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN OF THE WIND FIELD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 20.5N 122.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.7N 124.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.8N 125.9W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.1N 130.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WITH ONLY SHALLOW TO\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION PERSISTING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/12. DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE SYSTEM CENTER...HECTOR SHOULD BE PRIMARILY STEERED BY THE EAST\r\nTO NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nHECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATER. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE SYSTEM CENTER TONIGHT DURING THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD...THE\r\nGENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STEADY WEAKENING. HECTOR MAY EVEN\r\nDISSIPATE FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 20.2N 123.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.2N 125.6W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N 128.2W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL SHOWS A\r\nDECENT-LOOKING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE IMAGERY.  ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nNOT POSSIBLE TO OBTAIN A DATA T NUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...\r\nUSING A TYPICAL RATE OF DECAY YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS\r\nFOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  HECTOR SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW STORM\r\nSTRENGTH SOON...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO AS IT\r\nCONTINUES TO TRACK OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD AROUND 9 KNOTS.  HECTOR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 20.1N 124.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 125.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.8N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N 129.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n\r\nHECTOR CONTINUES TO BE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IT IS ESTIMATED\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOW WEAKENED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH.  A\r\nCONTINUED SPINDOWN OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS IS LIKELY...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS WEST NEAR 10 KNOTS.  A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 20.0N 125.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N 129.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS DEFINED BY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. IT IS NOT ONLY\r\nMOVING OVER COOL WATERS BUT IS EMBBEDED WITHIN A LARGE DRY AREA AS\r\nINDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  THE SWIRL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10\r\nKNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DECLARED DISSIPATED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 20.0N 127.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 128.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS DEFINED BY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT MAX WINDS ARE ABOUT 25 KNOTS AND DATA FROM SHIPS\r\nINDICATE THAT IT MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSE SURFACE CIRCULATION.\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON HECTOR.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nWILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 20.0N 128.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N 130.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION AND A LOW-LEVEL CENTER SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED AND THE WATER IS WARM SO THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND COULD\r\nBRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. \r\n  \r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 17.4N 104.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 19.2N 106.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 108.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 110.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 114.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 13 2000\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE UP TO A 2.5 FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\nACCORDINGLY THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ILEANA. \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE STORM IS MOVING\r\nOVER WARM WATER...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL INDICATES EVEN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A FAIRLY STRONG 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT FROM THE CURRENT 305 DEGREE\r\nHEADING.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFDL RUN SHOWS A TRACK SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH...KEEPING ILEANA CLOSE TO THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY\r\nMOVING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED NEAR 25N115W AT THIS TIME.  IT IS NOT\r\nCERTAIN WHETHER THE GFDL MODEL IS RESPONDING TO THIS FEATURE OR NOT.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nTRACKS...BUT A BIT SLOWER.  THIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION IN TRACK TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 18.0N 105.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.7N 106.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 20.2N 109.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.0N 111.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n\r\nA BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE\r\nTHE CENTER.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS CONTINUING TO\r\nMOVE BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE LEFT IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF A 500 MB RIDGE\r\nBUILDING TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN CONTRAST\r\nTO SIX HOURS EARLIER...THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL IS MORE IN\r\nLINE WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nMODEL TRACKS. \r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF FINAL T-\r\nNUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER...I.E.\r\nTAFB MIAMI...AND THE SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH OF NESDIS.  HIGH\r\nCLOUD MOTIONS IMPLY SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...BUT THE\r\nOUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE ADEQUATE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE WATERS WILL\r\nBE QUITE WARM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD COMMENCE AS ILEANA REACHES ABOUT 25 DEG C WATERS.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIF THE CURRENT TRACK PERSISTS...WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO CAN BE LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 18.6N 106.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 19.3N 107.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 109.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.8N 111.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO BRING THE WINDS UP AND ARE\r\nNOW 45 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS NOT\r\nOUTSTANDING...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE SSTS ARE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ILEANA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nILEANA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES ABOUT 8\r\nKNOTS AND IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nHOWEVER...IT HAS BECOME A THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n\r\nTHE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA WILL KEEP THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR A DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE...FORCING ILEANA TO\r\nMOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nPERSISTS LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...THE CENTER OF ILEANA COULD END UP\r\nMUCH CLOSER OR OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA BETWEEN 24 AND 36\r\nHOURS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS\r\nLATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 19.3N 106.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.1N 107.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 21.0N 109.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N 111.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE ABOUT 55\r\nKNOTS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW HAS\r\nIMPROVED.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ILEANA IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A 75-KNOT HURRICANE AND THIS BASICALLY DONE FOLLOWING\r\nSHIPS FORECAST.  MOST OF THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES\r\nNOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nILEANA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES ABOUT 10\r\nKNOTS.  THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA WILL KEEP THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT\r\nTHEREAFTER THE GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE RIDGE...FORCING ILEANA\r\nTO MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.   IN THIS FORECAST...HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA\r\nBUT ONLY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE\r\nCORE OF ILEANA MUCH CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE\r\nHURRICANE WATCH MAY THEN BE QUICKLY UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 20.2N 107.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 21.1N 109.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 22.0N 110.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 22.0N 112.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 23.0N 114.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 14 2000\r\n...CORRECTED INTIAL WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS...\r\nILEANA HAS TRACKED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED AND CURRENT\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/11.  GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS INSIST ON A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nPREDICTION OF A MID-TROPOPSHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...WE MUST\r\nACKNOWLEDGE THE MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THAT WE HAVE BEEN\r\nOBSERVING...AND ADJUST THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND TAKES\r\nTHE CENTER VERY NEAR TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  \r\n\r\nWITH THE ADJUSTED FORECAST TRACK...IT IS NECESSARY TO ISSUE\r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. \r\n\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN NEAR 3.5 SO CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55\r\nKNOTS.  HOWEVER...THE STORM IS EXHIBITING AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. \r\nSO...ILEANA WILL PROBABLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH...BUT\r\nTHAT MODEL HAS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING WIND SPEEDS.  WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREACH WATERS COOLER THAN 25 DEGREES C.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 21.3N 108.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 22.4N 109.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 23.0N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ILEANA IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE GOOD\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IN SOME BANDS TO THE WEST.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION UP TO 06Z WAS 320/10.  HOWEVER...THE MOTION SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME MAY BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...\r\nESPECIALLY THE AVN...ARE HINTING THAT THE RIDGE NORTH OF ILEANA MAY\r\nBE WEAKER THAT FORECAST EARLIER...AND NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO\r\nTHIS WITH MORE NORTHERLY FORECAST TRACKS THAN 6 HR AGO.  THE BIGGEST\r\nCHANGE IS IN THE NHC91E...WHICH HAS SHIFTED FROM A 72 HR POSITION\r\n20.5N115.5W 6 HR AGO TO 29N117W NOW.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N118W WHICH MAY BE RELATED TO THE\r\nWEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHIFT A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF A CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH INCLUDES THE BAMD...NGPI...AND THE GFDL.  THIS IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFTING GUIDANCE AND THE POSSIBLE MORE\r\nWESTERLY MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  ILEANA SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL AFTER THE STORM MOVES INTO\r\nCOLDER WATER IN ROUGHLY 36 HR.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nUNTIL THAT TIME...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 21.8N 108.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 22.7N 110.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 23.2N 112.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 23.4N 114.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO THE SECOND PARAGRAPH REFERENCE TO INITIAL\r\nMOTION AND BEING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...\r\n \r\nILEANA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST...BUT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT AND\r\nTHIS MORNING.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPROVING AND THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF\r\n65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 TO 60 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLE IN THE TRACK\r\nDUE TO THE CONVECTIVE SHEAR PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL DIRECTION\r\nSHOULD BE TO THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD\r\nAS ILEANA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DEPICTING THE RIDGE AXIS AS BEING\r\nOVERLY STRONG...BUT IT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ILEANA MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AWAY FROM LAND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND\r\nGFDL MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS ONLY A SMALL LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST. THE INTENSITIES WERE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKING THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE LATEST NAVO SST ANALYSIS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...EVEN THOUGH SHIPS INDICATES ILEANA WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER WATER WATER AND IN LOW SHEAR...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY\r\nFAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 22.2N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 22.7N 111.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 23.2N 113.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 23.4N 114.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 23.5N 116.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 23.5N 119.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n \r\nILEANA REMAINS IN A NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 1555Z SSMI\r\nOVERPASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT AND THE INITIAL\r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT THE ASYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE PATTERN.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/09.  SOME LARGE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK MAY\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR PATTERN AND ALSO DUE\r\nTO THE LOW-LEVEL LEESIDE FLOW OFF THE MOUNTAINS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nCREATING WEAK EDDIES. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL DIRECTION SHOULD BE TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS...MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF ILEANA...WHICH MAY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTERWARDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL AND UKMET MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE NHC FORECAST MODELS SUITE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY.\r\nALTHOUGH ILEANA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE 200 MB FLOW WILL SHIFT AROUND\r\nTO EASTERLY AND WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS. THE DECREASING SHEAR MAY ALLOW\r\nILEANA TO DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE LATER\r\nTONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD\r\nTUESDAY MORNING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ONLY SLOWLY INCREASES THE\r\nINTENSITY TO 75 KT IN 72 HOURS...BUT SMALL SYSTEMS LIKE ILEANA CAN\r\nSPINUP THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD MUCH FASTER THAN THE STATISTICAL\r\nMEANS INDICATE. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ILEANA OVER A NARROW\r\nCHANNEL OF WARM SSTS THROUGH 24 HOURS...WHICH FAVORS CONTINUED\r\nINTENSIFIATION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 22.2N 111.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 22.4N 112.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 23.0N 114.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 23.4N 115.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 23.7N 117.3W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 24.3N 119.7W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2000\r\n\r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 2230Z\r\nCONFIRMED THIS.  THIS INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS STILL BEING\r\nAFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING...BUT\r\nTHIS MAY BE ONLY A DIURNAL OSCILLATION.  NONETHELESS...BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE CONTINUED SHEARING...NO STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY AS ILEANA MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF 115W\r\nLONGITUDE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/9.  THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SHOWS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ILEANA...SO A\r\nCONTINUED SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 120W IN 2-3\r\nDAYS...SO A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN\r\nAS WELL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 22.4N 112.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 22.7N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.1N 115.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 23.5N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N 120.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME DE-COUPLED IN THE\r\nVERTICAL.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL-LOOKING\r\nSPIRAL PATTERN IN THE CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT ALL EVIDENCE POINTS TO A\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nOF THE HIGH CLOUD PATTERN.  ILEANA LOST PRACTICALLY ALL OF ITS\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...BUT SOME NEW CELLS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR\r\nTHE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS DOWN TO 55 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS.  GIVEN\r\nTHAT ILEANA IS MOVING OVER WARM WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nTODAY.  HOWEVER SINCE THE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME SO DISRUPTED...NO RE-\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN ON THIS ADVISORY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nPREDICTED LATER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS WEST OF 115W LONGITUDE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGES SO INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION ARE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.  BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY AND A BLEND OF FIXES FROM SAB AND TAFB...INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 280/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED.  A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE NEAR 120W LONGITUDE SHOULD CAUSE SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 22.6N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N 114.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 23.2N 116.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 119.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 121.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nILEANA CONTINUES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION WHICH IN FACT IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 50\r\nKNOTS.  ILEANA STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO PRODUCE A FEW BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION AND MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATER.  THEREAFTER...A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nILEANA IS MOVING 280 ABOUT 7 KNOTS.  THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SAME TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...ILEANA SHOULD WILL PROBABLY BE A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM AND MOVES MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 22.7N 113.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 115.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 23.5N 117.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 118.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 24.5N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N 124.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ileana","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nILEANA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS BECOME HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. PREVIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE\r\nPROBABLY TOO HIGH AND WE ARE ADJUSTING THE WINDS AT 30 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE INITIAL POSITION HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED.  ILEANA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 23.1N 113.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 115.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ileana","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-08-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2000\r\n \r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE SMALL SWIRL OF LOW-CLOUDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH ILEANA WAS BECOMING DIFFUSE AND ILL-DEFINED.  A FEW\r\nISOLATED CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION WERE NOTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED CENTER...BUT THESE ARE DISSIPATING.  THERE MAY BE A\r\nFEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...BUT ILEANA IS DISSIPATING SO THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 23.4N 114.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 23.8N 116.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-28 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2000\r\n\r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE SYSTEM REVEAL THAT THE LOW-CENTER HAS\r\nBECOME MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING THAN IT WAS LAST NIGHT. \r\nTHIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WARRANTS UPGRADING THE DISTURBANCE TO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E.  THERE IS SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE AREA...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT BASED ON A GOOD FIX AT 28/00Z AND\r\nTHE CURRENT CENTER POSITION...THE ESTIMATE IS 300/4.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH OF 20N\r\nLATITUDE AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  A CONTINUED SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS FORECAST...WHICH\r\nIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1700Z 15.4N 138.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.6N 138.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 139.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.2N 140.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 17.0N 143.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2000\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH BANDING\r\nFEATURES MOST PROMINENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE DVORAK T-\r\nNUMBER FROM TAFB MIAMI IS NOW 3.0...SO THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A\r\n45-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  EVEN THOUGH THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...IT IS NOT VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER THE\r\nLATEST ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOWS MUCH\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR A SHORT DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THUS\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HALTS THE STRENGTHENING TREND AFTER\r\nA DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOW...295/04.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF JOHN IS QUITE WEAK AND FORECAST TO REMAIN SO...AS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A TROUGH NORTH OF 20N AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE 4 KNOT\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS CLOSE TO THE TRAJACTORY SHOWN BY\r\nTHE BAROTROPIC MODEL AND DEEP LAYER BAM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 15.6N 138.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.8N 138.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.2N 139.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N 140.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.7N 141.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 143.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR...BUT\r\nIMPROVING...TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/05.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN\r\nCOMING IN ON TRACK...SO THIS FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS\r\nWEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS QUITE STRONG AND JOHN\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK BY THE EASTERLY FLOW\r\nTO THE NORTH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM\r\nMODELS...AND BETWEEN THE GFDN AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nJOHN HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS...BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF SHIFTING TO A\r\nMORE NORMAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.  A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH\r\nCOLD...-80C OR COLDER...OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nSYSTEM CENTER WHICH INDICATES JOHN IS STRENGTHENING.  ALSO...A\r\nDISTURBANCE ABOUT 600 MILES TO THE WEST HAS BEEN RUNNING\r\nINTERFERENCE AND DEFLECTING STRONG 200 MB SHEARING WINDS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF JOHN.  THIS HAS ALLOWED THE OUTFLOW TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND\r\nTO THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD FURTHER ALLOW JOHN TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE\r\nHAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING THE PAST FEW HOURS WHICH MAY ALLOW THE \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF JOHN IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIN TAKING JOHN TO 70 KT...THEN HOLDING STEADY AFTERWARDS EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT.\r\n\r\nNOTE...THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON A 00Z REPORT\r\nFROM SHIP PJOX LOCATED ABOUT 140 NM SOUTHEAST OF JOHN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 15.8N 138.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 16.1N 139.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.3N 140.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 16.8N 142.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 143.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n\r\n385 \r\nWTPZ42 KNHC 290832\r\nTCDEP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2000\r\n \r\nJOHN IS PRESENTING ABOUT THE SAME APPEARANCE ON INFRARED IMAGERY NOW\r\nAS IT WAS SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING\r\nTO THE WEST...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME WESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND UNDERCUTTING THIS OUTFLOW.  MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS DETERMINED\r\nFROM AN SSMI PASS OBTAINED FROM THE NRL/MONTEREY TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWEB PAGE.  THIS PASS ALSO SUGGESTS A PARTIAL CENTRAL RING OF HEAVIER\r\nRAIN THAT COULD BE THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYEWALL.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  SHIPS\r\nKEEPS THE SYSTEM ROUGHLY STEADY STATE FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY\r\nWEAKENS IT.  NEITHER THE UKMET NOR THE GFDL FORECAST JOHN TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE...BUT GIVEN THE GOOD INNER CORE ORGANIZATION THIS COULD\r\nSTILL HAPPEN AND I HAVE BACKED OFF ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  THE SPREAD OF THE BAM TRACK MODELS SUGGESTS\r\nVERY HIGH SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  THE LBAR...DEEP\r\nBAM...AND THE STATISTICAL MODEL TAKE JOHN ULTIMATELY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY BENDS THE TRACK \r\nSMARTLY TO THE WEST AND THEN SOUTH OF WEST.  GIVEN THIS SPLIT...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST GOES SLOW...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION\r\nAND IS NOT FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON\r\nPERSISTENT SHIP REPORTS OF HIGH WINDS AND SEAS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 16.1N 139.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 16.4N 139.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.7N 140.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 16.9N 140.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.0N 141.7W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N 143.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\n\r\n288 \r\nWTPZ42 KNHC 291432\r\nTCDEP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2000\r\n\r\nJOHN REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED STORM WITH STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.  THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH THE DVORAK T NUMBER\r\nHOLDING AT 3.5...I.E. 55 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE BEING AFFECTED BY INCREASING\r\nSHEAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4 AS BEFORE.  THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JOHN BEING\r\nERODED BY A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.  THEREFORE...A VERY SLOW MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 16.3N 139.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.6N 139.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.8N 140.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 141.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 143.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2000\r\n\r\nOVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...JOHN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS RAGGED-LOOKING AND THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS\r\nMAY BE DUE TO INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING OVER THE SYSTEM.  NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND...IF THE CURRENT\r\nTREND CONTINUES...JOHN MAY WEAKEN MUCH SOONER THAN WE HAD\r\nANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4...WHICH IS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  A WEAK RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A STEERING\r\nCURRENT TO MOVE JOHN WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 16.5N 139.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.8N 140.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 141.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.0N 141.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 142.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 144.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPZ42 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTTAA00\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2000\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...STRONG CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED A\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR BUT IMPROVING\r\nELSEWHERE...AND A SMALL CDO APPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6.  JOHN HAS BEEN BUCKING THE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN IMPEDING ITS WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS STRONG ENOUGH\r\nTO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...AFTER WHICH THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST.  ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS AGREE ON JOHN SLOWING DOWN TO A CRAWL IN 36 HOURS...BUT THEN\r\nSPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS EITHER TAKING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHEAST OR\r\nSLOWLY SOUTHEAST.  WE HAVE CHOSEN THE LATTER SOLUTION BASED ON THE\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO NORTH BUILDING SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE COLD AIR\r\nADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS...EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH\r\nTAKES JOHN SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...ALMOST ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS KEEP JOHN WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nJOHN HAS BEEN ABLE TO FIGHT OFF SOME MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR TODAY\r\nAND NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER WHICH\r\nHAD BEEN PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE WEST SIDE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE\r\nINTENSITY DOWN QUICKLY AND HAS JOHN A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 72\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...WITH DECREASING SHEAR FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS...AND JOHN FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM 26C\r\nSSTS...SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY THROUGH 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTERWARDS DUE TO A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN THE WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nNOTE...SINCE JOHN IS NOW WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE...THE NEXT AND\r\nFUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE\r\nCENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 17.1N 140.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 17.4N 141.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N 141.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.5N 142.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.3N 143.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 300900\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST TUE AUG 29 2000\r\n \r\nJOHN APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING STRENGTH IN SPITE OF THE MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IT IS ENCOUNTERING.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WITH A\r\nDVORAK T NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM THE HONOLULU WFO. SAB CAME IN WITH A T\r\nNUMBER OF 3.0 OR 45 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK SOME OVER THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS AND IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS.\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295 AT 6 KT. WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH\r\nCENTERED WELL NORTH OF ITS MEAN POSITION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE\r\nTRADES ARE BARELY STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP JOHN PLUGGING ALONG ON A\r\nMORE OR LESS WESTWARD TRACK. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE STEERING\r\nWINDS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST RETROGRADES TO THE SOUTHWEST. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS\r\nVARY GREATLY WITH SOME TAKING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST AND OTHERS\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL STICK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SOLUTION\r\nLOOPING JOHN SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WAITS FOR THE TRADES TO\r\nREBUILD.\r\n\r\nALL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN JOHN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THE\r\nSYSTEM STAYING OVER MARGINALLY WARM 26C SSTS AND WITH DECREASING\r\nSHEAR EXPECTED WE WILL KEEP JOHN AT 55 KT FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 30 HOURS\r\nTHEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER WESTERLY SHEAR KICKS IN.\r\nCRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 17.3N 141.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N 141.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 142.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.4N 143.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N 143.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 16.2N 142.8W    40 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 301500\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST WED AUG 30 2000\r\n \r\nJOHN IS HANGING IN THERE IN SPITE OF THE MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nSOUTHWEST SHEAR IT IS ENCOUNTERING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT\r\nIS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WITH A DVORAK T NUMBER OF\r\n3.5 FROM WFO HONOLULU AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE UPSWING\r\nTHOUGH LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE\r\nNORTH SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR BUT GETTING BETTER ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/04 WHICH IS SLOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.\r\nTHE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH AT 45N IS CENTERED FAR NORTH OF ITS MEAN\r\nPOSITION FOR THE SUMMER MONTHS MAKING FOR WEAK STEERING WINDS DOWN\r\nAT 17N. JOHN SHOULD MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 4 KT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS\r\nTHEN SLOW DOWN SOME MORE. THE STEERING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nCOLLAPSE AFTER 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nDIGS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ERODES THE TRADES FROM ABOVE.  AT THIS\r\nPOINT THE MODELS VARY GREATLY WITH LBAR P91E AND BAMD TAKING THE\r\nSYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST...CLIPER TAKES IT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND\r\nEVERYBODY ELSE CURVES IT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. WILL GO WITH THE\r\nMAJORITY AND LOOP JOHN SLOWLY AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IT WAITS\r\nFOR THE TRADES TO REBUILD.\r\n \r\nALL MODELS WEAKEN JOHN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. WITH THE SYSTEM\r\nSTAYING OVER MARGINALLY WARM 26C WATER AND WITH THE SHEAR POSSIBLY\r\nDECREASING WE WILL KEEP JOHN AT 55 KT THEN WEAKEN HIM AFTER 24 HOURS\r\nAS WESTERLY SHEAR KICKS IN. CRAIG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 17.5N 141.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.7N 141.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 17.7N 142.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 17.4N 143.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 16.9N 143.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 16.0N 142.8W    40 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 301800\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST WED AUG 30 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JOHN IS HIDDEN UNDER A COLD OVERCAST AND THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND HONOLULU RAE BACK UP 4.0 INTENSITY\r\nFROM EARLIER ESTIMATES OF 3.5. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN NUDGED TO\r\n60 KT JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MOST\r\nACTIVE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BUT OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. THE FORECAST STILL IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 4 KT\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK. AS THE UPPER TROUGH\r\nNORTHWEST OF HAWAII EXITS WEST THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER JOHN WILL\r\nBE MORE FAVORABLE FOR IT TO MOVE WEST IF IT  SURVIVES THE CURRENT\r\nSHEARED ENVIRONMENT. LARSON \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 17.6N 140.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N 141.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 17.7N 142.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.2N 143.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 16.4N 144.3W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 14.9N 146.6W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 310300\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST WED AUG 30 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JOHN IS OBSCURED BY COLD OVERCAST CLOUDS AND VERY\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE HONOLULU SATELLITE UNIT PLACES IT WEST OF\r\n140W WHILE THE LATEST SAB POSITION ISTO THE EAST OF 140W IN THE NHC\r\nAREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE MOTION OF JOHN WILL REMAIN SLOW AND\r\nSOMEWHAT ERRATIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nDRAMATICALLY DECLINED SINCE THIS MORNING UNDER APPARENT INCREASED\r\nSHEAR. FOR NOW THE INTENSITY IS KEPT ON ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND\r\nSINCE THE CONVECTION COULD REGENERATE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF JOHN IS SLOWLY NORTHWEST FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST UNDER STEERING FROM THE TRADE WINDS. THIS TRACK IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF MOST OF THE MODELS BUT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UK AND BAM SHALLOW. LARSON \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 17.5N 140.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.7N 140.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 17.6N 141.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 17.3N 142.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 16.8N 143.1W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 15.6N 144.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 310900\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST WED AUG 30 2000\r\n\r\nIN A MATTER OF A COUPLE HOURS JOHN LOST MOST ALL OF HIS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE\r\nPERSISTENT SOUTHWEST SHEAR. AM TEMPTED TO WEAKEN JOHN SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nBUT WILL STAY WITHIN MODEL CONSTRAINTS THIS TIME AROUND AND DROP\r\nJOHN DOWN TO 45 KT. THIS CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WILL ALLOW FOR THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REFORMING. \r\n\r\nJOHN HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS IS USUALLY THE\r\nCASE WHEN THERE IS AN ABSENCE OF STEERING WINDS...THE MODELS MOVE\r\nJOHN IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE MAJORITY THOUGH MOVE JOHN SLOWLY TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...SO WILL GO ALONG WITH THAT IDEA. ALL INTENSITY MODELS\r\nWEAKEN JOHN OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nCRAIG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 17.3N 140.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 17.3N 140.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.1N 141.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.8N 141.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.4N 141.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 15.7N 142.0W    30 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 311500\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST THU AUG 31 2000\r\n \r\nCONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE LOCATION OF JOHN DUE TO THE LACK OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. CHOSE A POINT ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE TWO FIXES\r\nPROVIDED BY SAB AND THE HONOLULU SATELLITE MET. WILL HAVE TO WAIT\r\nUNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS. \r\n\r\nJOHN HAS SHOWN NO SIGN OF STRENGTHENING IN THE LAST SIX HOURS SO\r\nWILL CONTINUE WITH THE WEAKENING TREND KNOCKING OFF ANOTHER 10 KT\r\nPER DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JOHN TO BE\r\nA DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nMODEL GROUPING IS A LOT TIGHTER THIS TIME AROUND WITH MOST ALL\r\nTAKING JOHN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS LBAR\r\nWHICH SHOOTS JOHN UP TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE PACK AND IS CLOSEST TO P91E. CRAIG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 16.6N 141.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.0N 141.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 15.3N 142.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 14.6N 142.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 14.1N 143.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 13.3N 143.5W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 312100\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST THU AUG 31 2000\r\n \r\nALL OF JOHNS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF EXPOSING THE WELL\r\nDEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ITS MOVMENT SHOULD BEGIN TO BE\r\nGUIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  WE PREFER A MORE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD PATH IN CONTRAST TO NEARLY 360 DEGREE\r\nOBJECTIVE AIDS ARRAY. SYSTEM SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASED FROM THE\r\nCURRENT SLOW 5 KNOST TO 15 KNOTS BY THE END OF 72 HOURS.\r\nMATSUDA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 17.3N 142.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 17.2N 143.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 17.1N 144.6W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.2N 146.9W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 17.1N 149.9W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 17.2N 156.1W    25 KTS\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 010300\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 PM HST THU AUG 31 2000\r\n \r\nJOHN IS BEING INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13E WHICH HAS FORMED\r\nNEAR 13N 133W. JOHNS MOVMENT HAS BEEN HELD STATIONARY THE LAST 6\r\nHOURS. A WEAK FUJIWARA TYPE ROTATION BETWEEN THE TWO DEPRESSIONS\r\nMAY ENSUE AS THE TWO ROUGHLY CARTWHEEL ABOUT EACHOTHER. THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS FOR JOHN TO TAKE A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD PATH..THEN\r\nGRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME.  MATSUDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 17.3N 141.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.2N 142.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.8N 143.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 16.7N 145.3W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 16.6N 147.8W    25 KTS DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 16.8N 153.5W    25 KTS DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 010900\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 PM HST THU AUG 31 2000\r\n \r\nJOHN HAS LOST ALL ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.\r\nTHE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nWITH MAX 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE. JOHN HAS BEEN NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY BUT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY WEST THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AND CONTINUE TO WEAKENE. WILL WAIT FOR DAYTIME SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND MORE SCATTEROMETER DATA TO SEE IF THIS SPIN DOWN PROCESS\r\nHAS PROGRESSED AS EXPECTED BEFORE ISSUING THE FINAL ADVISORY. LARSON\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 17.4N 142.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 17.4N 142.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 011500\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n5 AM HST FRI SEP 01 2000\r\n\r\n...JOHN NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENING...\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT REGENERATED AROUND JOHN AND IT REMAINS A LOW\r\nCLOUD SWIRL THAT IS NO LONGER CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE. THE FORECAST IS FOR JOHN TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nWHILE WEAKENING FURTHER. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE MAX 25 KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nWILL WAIT FOR DAYTIME SATELLITE TO CONFIRM THAT THE SPIN DOWN OF\r\nJOHN IS COMPLETE. LARSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 17.5N 142.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nWTPA42 PHFO 012100\r\nTCDCP2\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST FRI SEP 01 2000\r\n \r\n...JOHN NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING AS A VIABLE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...\r\n\r\nJOHN REMAINS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. IT IS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY AND WHEN IT DOES RESUME MOVING IT WILL LIKELY MOVE WEST\r\nWITH THE TRADES. SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATES 25 KT WINDS IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND LITTLE WIND ELSEWHERE. WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF\r\nREGENERATION THE LAST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME.\r\nROSENDAL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 17.8N 142.0W    25 KTS DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N 143.0W    25 KTS DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 1600\r\nMILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE DAY. THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THIS IS ALSO BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFORM TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AT THIS TIME BUT THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE WATER IS WARM.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/04.  SINCE THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS\r\nINDICATED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nCLIMATOLOGY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 13.5N 133.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 13.7N 133.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N 135.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 16.5N 138.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES POORLY\r\nORGANIZED AND WIND ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT 25 KNOTS. INTERMITTENT\r\nCLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER\r\nBUT ARE BEING REMOVED BY SHEAR.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY\r\nIS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX\r\nAND THE WATER IS WARM..THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE AND THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.  THEREFORE A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 13.9N 133.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.0N 133.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 134.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 135.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 16.0N 136.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 17.0N 137.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH\r\nPOSSIBLE MULTIPLE VORTICES WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND MOST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL AWAY FROM THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES...AND A 0605Z SSMI OVERPASS\r\nSHOWING A GOOD MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25\r\nKT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND A 0321Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY OR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE COL REGION IN THE MEAN\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT AND\r\nTHE 01/00Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN\r\nTO THE NORTH.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWEST OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TWO\r\nFORECASTS...AND BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GUNS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 26C TO 27C WATER FOR MOST\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nLOW...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM COULD REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION...BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS NEAR THE MID- OR LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTERS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS IGNORED AFTER 24\r\nHOURS SINCE IT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR MODEL WHICH RAPIDLY ACCELERATES\r\nTHE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...AND LBAR IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER MODEL IN THE\r\n06Z FORECAST SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 14.1N 133.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.3N 133.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 14.6N 134.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 134.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 15.5N 135.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2000\r\n \r\nA SIZEABLE CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION 13-E NEAR 08Z...BUT IS NOW DECREASING IN INTENSITY AS\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING AND MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS COMBINATION IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING SLOW AND ERRATIC\r\nMOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nFEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN WITH TIME...SOME TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE\r\nNORTH OR NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...WITH MODELS SUCH AS LBAR...BAMD...\r\nGFDL...AND BAMM CALLING FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS AND THE UKMET CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  WITH THE\r\nCURRENT LACK OF MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GUNS ENSEMBLE. \r\nTHE AVN MODEL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION JOHN TO THE NORTHWEST...WHICH COULD COMPLICATE THE\r\nMOTION.  AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST ASSUMES THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. \r\nTHUS...STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IF THE CONVECTION WERE MORE\r\nPERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THIS\r\nWILL HAPPEN AND CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK INTO GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 14.0N 133.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 14.3N 133.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 14.7N 134.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 15.2N 135.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n13-E FADED AWAY AND WAS REPLACED BY A SECOND BURST SOUTH OF THE\r\nPOORLY DEFINED CENTER.  THIS BURST IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS BURST...WITH A WEAK BANDING PATTERN AROUND THE CENTER. \r\nHOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT...SO THE   \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS ADVISORY WILL BE UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH LOW\r\nLEVEL RIDGING AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  ONE\r\nADDITIONAL FACTOR IS THAT A BAND OF LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW EXISTS\r\nJUST SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM STATIONARY.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...WITH\r\nMANY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL TENDENCIES CONTINUING ON THIS PACKAGE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.  THERE\r\nIS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nJOHN...CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY ABOUT 575 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 13-E.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT INCLUDE\r\nTHIS POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.\r\nIF THE CURRENT CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nASSUMES THIS WILL HAPPEN AND CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK INTO\r\nGRADUALLY COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 13.6N 133.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 14.0N 133.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 14.4N 134.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 14.8N 135.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 138.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nSUGGESTED BY A RECENT TRMM PASSAGE OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH SHOWS A\r\nMUCH BETTER DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL\r\nONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nKRISTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING DAY AND BECAUSE THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE WEAK...LITTLE MOTION IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A SLOW WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 13.0N 133.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 133.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N 134.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N 134.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N 135.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 137.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n \r\nKRISTY HAS LOST MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW\r\nCELLS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE EMERGED.  AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 290/4.  IT APPEARS THAT KRISTY HAS\r\nFINALLY DECIDED TO START MOVING AGAIN IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nWESTWARD DIRECTION.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THERE MAY BE LARGE WOBBLES IN THE ACTUAL\r\nTRACK OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN CONSOLIDATES\r\nAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS...WHICH ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFDL AND AVN MODELS.\r\n\r\nKRISTY APPEARS TO BE WELL AWAY FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR...OVER 27C\r\nSSTS...AND INSULATED FROM ANY MAJOR DRY AIR INTRUSIONS.  THESE\r\nCONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIFOR AND SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...BUT KRISTY REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS\r\nCAN NOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REDEVELOPS LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 13.6N 134.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.9N 134.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 14.3N 135.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.7N 136.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N 137.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N 139.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER AND INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE ON INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/04.  THE 06Z AVIATION\r\nMODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS IN A COL\r\nAREA BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AREAS TO THE EAST AND WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A WEST TO NORTHWEST DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS WHICH IS\r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODEL CONSENSUS...MORE OR LESS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED. \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 2.5 BUT T NUMBERS ARE ONLY 2.0\r\nSUGGESTING A WEAKENING TREND.  THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS REDUCED 5\r\nDTO 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THIS TREND BUT THE\r\nFORECAST IS STILL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 13.5N 134.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 135.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 13.5N 136.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 13.7N 136.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 13.9N 137.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 138.5W    45 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED FROM DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND KRISTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS\r\nBASIS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THERE COULD BE\r\nREINTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY FORECASTS\r\nNO CHANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS RELOCATED BASED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS MOSTLY SHOW A WEST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 72 HOURS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS WHICH\r\nACELLERATES KRISTY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 T 12 KNOTS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST OPTS FOR THE SLOWER MOTION SINCE THE 12Z AVIATION\r\nMODEL SHOWS WEAK STEERING CURRENTS CONTINUING NEAR KRISTY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 14.3N 133.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.4N 133.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N 134.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 14.7N 134.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N 135.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 15.5N 137.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF KRISTY HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND REMAINS SEPARATED FROM A\r\nFEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE A FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...A NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nWEAK AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY STILL PERSISTS FEW A FEW\r\nMORE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 14.5N 133.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N 133.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE A COUPLE HUNDRED\r\nMILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES AND STRONG\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING INITIATED.  OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM...ABOVE 29\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AT ABOUT THE\r\nRATE SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...SHIPS.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS WNW...285/13.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ON THIS\r\nTRACK...THE SYSTEM POSES NO THREAT TO MEXICO. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 16.2N 105.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.6N 107.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.3N 112.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 118.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING MORE\r\nTHAN HALFWAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE SOLIDLY SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...A SHIP WITH\r\nCALL SIGN VRUZ9 REPORTS 12 KNOT WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  IT\r\nIS PRESUMED THAT THIS OBSERVATION WAS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT IT DOES CAST SOME DOUBT ON THE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...AND\r\nBECAUSE THE SYSTEM DOES LOOK IMPRESSIVE ON THE IMAGES...IT IS BEING\r\nNAMED ON THIS ADVISORY.  CONDITIONS FAVOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION\r\nAND LANE WILL LIKELY REACH HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/14.  THERE ARE SOME PROBLEMS IN THE\r\nINITIALIZATION OF THE 12Z AVN RUN SINCE IT SHOWS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SEVERAL DEGREES TOO FAR SOUTH.  IN ITS FORECAST...IT SPINS\r\nUP A SECONDARY STORM ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF LANE.  WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...THE MODEL PULLS LANE NORTHWARD.  HOPEFULLY THIS PROBLEM\r\nWILL BE RESOLVED WITH A RELOCATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE\r\nNEXT INITIALIZATION OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.  IN ANY EVENT...A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF LANE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 16.0N 107.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 109.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N 114.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N 117.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2000\r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES TO PRESENT AN IMPROVING SATELLITE DEPICTION WITH\r\nTIGHT BANDING AROUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER IN THE LAST VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES...AND THE AREAL COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS BEEN\r\nEXPANDING SINCE THEN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SHIP THAT EARLIER REPORTED 12\r\nKT EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 27 KT ABOUT 70 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nAT 00Z.  THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nTHESE WINDS COVER ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST TONIGHT PRESENTS SOME CHALLENGES ATYPICAL OF THE\r\nEAST PACIFIC.  THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY...AND IS\r\nCHARITABLY ESTIMATED AS 260/9.  THE 18Z AVN DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A\r\nGOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE STORM...SHOWING LANE AT THE WESTERN END\r\nOF AN ELONGATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM.  THE AVN ROTATES LANE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE LATTER FEATURE...WHICH ITSELF IS FORECAST\r\nTO STRENGTHEN BY THE MODEL...AND THEN TAKES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE BAM MODELS AND THE GFDL ALL RESPOND TO THIS WITH A\r\nCONTINUED TURNING TO THE SOUTH.  THE UKMET INITIALIZATION AND LOW\r\nLEVEL EVOLUTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC...BUT IT TOO SHOWS LITTLE NET\r\nWESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE KEY MAY BE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW AHEAD OF LANE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW\r\nNEAR 16N AND 123W...AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE WINDS FROM THE CIMSS\r\nWEB PAGE.  THIS COULD CREATE A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR LANE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND EVEN SO RETAINS A STRONGER WESTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT THAN ANY OF THE CURRENT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nIF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER\r\nLANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS SHOWN BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 15.7N 107.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.5N 108.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.3N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 15.1N 111.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 15.0N 113.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED JUST A LITTLE AND THERE ARE NOW TWO\r\nAREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CONVECTIVE BLOB. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ACCORDING\r\nTO SHIPS MODEL...IT IS MOSTLY DUE TO WARM WATERS SINCE SHEAR IS\r\nLIKELY TO INCREASE.\r\n\r\nLANE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING 265/08. MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER A\r\nLARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SURROUNDING LANE.  THIS PATTERN WOULD MAKE\r\nVERY DIFFICULT FOR LANE TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR A LONG TIME. HOWEVER\r\n...AT THIS TIME IT IS PREFERRED NOT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.3N 109.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 110.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.0N 112.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N 114.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 15.0N 116.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN SIDE\r\nOF A BURSTING MASS OF CONVECTION.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY AN\r\nOBSERVATION FROM THE VESSEL ELXZ7 WHICH REPORTED WEST WINDS OF 30\r\nKNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1003.0 MB ABOUT 80 N MI SOUTH OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER.  THERE IS NOW SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM AND THIS IS PROBABLY RETARDING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. \r\nHOWEVER IT IS NOT BELIEVED THAT THE SHEAR...WHICH IS ABOUT 20\r\nKNOTS...WILL PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE\r\nIN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES ARE UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION\r\nHAS SLOWED EVEN FURTHER...TO AROUND 6 KNOTS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT LANE WILL BE EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LOW- TO MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nTHROUGH 120W LONGITUDE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WITH THIS STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING VERY\r\nFAR TO THE WEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE DIVERGENT...BUT THE U.K.\r\nMET...GFDL... AVN..AND NOGAPS MODELS GENERALLY SHOW AN ERRATIC\r\nMOTION FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ONLY TAKES\r\nLANE ABOUT 5 DEGREES TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 15.1N 108.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.8N 110.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 14.7N 111.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 14.8N 111.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 113.5W    75 KTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCMAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS\r\nSOUTHEAST OF PREVIOUS LOCATION ESTIMATES.  APPARENTLY THE CENTER HAS\r\nBEEN EXECUTING A CYCLONIC LOOP.  THIS WAS SHOWN BY THE GFDL MODEL\r\nTRACK FORECASTS...BUT NOT QUITE IN THE SAME LOCATION.  LANE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY...EVENTUALLY LOOPING BACK ACROSS ITS TRACK. \r\nTHIS IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST...BUT A BIT\r\nSLOWER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS PARTIALLY REMOVED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A\r\nCOMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGER-\r\nSCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN WHICH THE STORM IS EMBEDDED. \r\nBECAUSE OF THE CURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NO\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  THEREAFTER...\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ALLOWED FOR IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBASED ON A REPORT OF 34 KNOT WINDS FROM THE SHIP ELXZ7...THE RADIUS\r\nOF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT OF LANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 13.9N 108.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.2N 107.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 15.0N 107.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 108.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2000\r\n \r\nLANE IS DETERIORATING AS IT HAS BECOME ENTRAPPED IN AN ITCZ-LIKE\r\nLARGE BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AND CONVERGENCE THAT IS\r\nPROVIDING COMPETITION AND LIMITING INFLOW.  NO DOUBT THAT SOME\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN HELPFUL EITHER...AS THE  \r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY RAGGED.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO NOW IS\r\nFOR THE RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY AND\r\nDISSIPATE WITHIN THE ITCZ.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF LANE WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR THE CONSOLIDATION AND\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE\r\nLATTER SCENARIO...CALLING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nMOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF DUE SOUTH AT\r\nABOUT 5 KT.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LANE WILL SOON TURN BACK TO THE\r\nNORTH AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS AND\r\nEASES THE SOUTHWARD STEERING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nLINE OF THINKING. \r\n\r\nWIND RADII ON THE WEST SIDE HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED AS THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF LANE MERGES WITH THE LARGER SCALE FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 13.4N 108.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.2N 107.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 13.3N 107.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 13.6N 107.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 14.5N 106.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2000\r\n \r\nLANE IS DEPICTED ON IR IMAGES AS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SEVERAL\r\nCLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHOUT AN INNER CORE.  HOWEVER...DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST 40-KNOT WINDS. THE FUTURE INTENSITY IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT OLD RULES SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION AND WARM WATERS...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR AND\r\nRESTRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.  IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nREDEVELOPMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING AND LITTLE MOTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER... A GENERAL SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD TURN SHOULD BEGIN AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS IS\r\nALSO INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 13.5N 108.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 13.5N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 107.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2000\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON...\r\nSO INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS.  LATEST IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A\r\nBANDING FEATURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN SECTOR...\r\nIMPLYING THAT SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION MAY BE STARTING. \r\nHOWEVER SINCE THIS IS NOT CERTAIN...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...ASSUMING LANE BREAKS\r\nAWAY FROM THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITHIN WHICH IT HAS BEEN\r\nEMBEDDED...WE EXPECT SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTED A SLIGHT\r\nNORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n360/2.  A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN AND\r\nU.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS.  THESE MODELS SHOW A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM...AND A GRADUAL\r\nBREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 14.1N 107.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 14.4N 107.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 14.8N 107.8W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.0N 107.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 17.2N 108.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2000\r\n \r\nBASED ON A BANDING FEATURE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE.  HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nBECOMING A LITTLE RAGGED-LOOKING AND THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nNOW 40 KNOTS.  ASSUMING THAT SHEARING WILL NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY\r\nSTRONG... GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS\r\nSHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOMEWHAT MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING... BUT THAT MODEL HAS OFTEN HAD A POSITIVE BIAS IN ITS\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTIONS.\r\n\r\nLANE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/6.  ASSUMING THIS MOTION\r\nCONTINUES THE STORM WILL COMPLETE ITS LOOP OVER ITS FORMER TRACK. \r\nTHE HEADING IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST WITH TIME...AS PER THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE MAIN\r\nFORECAST PROBLEM IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO SOUTHERN BAJA LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA.  EVEN THOUGH MOST OF OUR\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE\r\nTROUGH FEATURE COULD STEER LANE MORE TO THE RIGHT.  THAT IS WHAT IS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 14.9N 107.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.8N 106.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 19.3N 107.3W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 109.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lane","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF LANE POPPED OUT FROM BENEATH THE CONVECTION\r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND COMPLETED ABOUT ONE QUARTER OF A\r\nREVOLUTION AROUND THE CENTER OF A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION...BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH EVERY IMAGE.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING HAS LOST ITS IDENTITY\r\nWITHIN THE LARGER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  TO AVOID POTENTIAL\r\nCONFUSION...AND BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SORT OF\r\nVORTEX WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND STRENGTHEN...WE WILL HANG\r\nON TO LANE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR NOW AND SEE IF THE BROADER\r\nLOW CONSOLIDATES INTO A TRUE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY FOR THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS OR MORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE UKMET. \r\nGIVEN THE LARGE AMBIENT VORTICITY...CONVECTION...AND WARM WATER...IF\r\nA TRUE CIRCULATION SURVIVES IT WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 15.0N 108.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.6N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.8N 108.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 109.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 08 2000\r\n \r\nA LARGE COLD CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IT\r\nIS NOT POSSIBLE TO KNOW FROM INFRARED IMAGERY IF A WELL DEFINED LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR OR BENEATH THE CDO.  A\r\nRECENT SSMI PASS IN INCONCLUSIVE AND SO IS NIGHT2 INFRARED IMAGERY. \r\nHOWEVER THE CDO IS IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT I AM UPGRADING LANE TO A\r\n35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC\r\nARE IN THE 45 TO 55 KNOT RANGE BUT I AM RELUCTANT TO GO THAT HIGH\r\nWITH THE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING A LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE FORECAST IS\r\nTO 65 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\nFORECASTS EVEN HIGHER WIND SPEEDS.\r\n\r\nWITHOUT A CENTER TO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ASSUMED TO BE\r\nSTATIONARY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST A MOSTLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH A SLIGHT AND\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  IT IS HARD TO SEE WHERE THE NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION IS COMING FROM AS THERE IS A HIGH DUE NORTH OF\r\nLANE AND A TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN\r\nANY CASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nMODELS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE FURTHER TO THE LEFT\r\nSUGGESTING A DECREASING THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 15.5N 108.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N 108.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 108.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 17.6N 109.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 109.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N 112.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 08 2000\r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD BUT BROAD CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nCENTER HAS WARMED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE INCREASED ONLY TO 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THIS MAY BE A BIT ON\r\nTHE CONSERVATIVE SIDE. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...\r\nAND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL\r\nBUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF LANE AND POSSIBLY FORCE LANE MORE WESTWARD. \r\nTHE NOGAPS AND THE AVN BUILD MORE RIDGING...WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DIVERGENCE IN\r\nOPINION...WITH THE UKMET FOLLOWING A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK AND THE\r\nAVN-BASED GUIDANCE CALLING FOR MORE OF A TURN TO THE WEST.  GIVEN\r\nTHE UNCERTAINLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUKMET.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED...AND WITH THE CURRENT COLD\r\nCONVECTION THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON LANE SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN. \r\nHOWEVER...INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION MAY BE SLOWING THE PROCESS DOWN. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LANE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE\r\nBY 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY NO CHANGE AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATER. IF\r\nLANE EVER GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER...IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 16.3N 108.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 17.9N 109.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 22.0N 113.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 08 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LANE HAS BECOME BETTER WRAPPED AROUND THE\r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL\r\n55 KT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.  THIS IS ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A QUIKSCAT\r\nSCATTEROMETER OVERPASS NEAR 13Z.  THIS DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT LANE\r\nHAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE 34 KT WIND RADII\r\nHAVE BEEN CONSIDERABLY EXPANDED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nA LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND LARGE-\r\nSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL\r\nBUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF LANE?  THE AVN SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE MORE\r\nOF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAN 6 HR AGO...AND SOME OF THE AVN-\r\nBASED GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE UKMET AND THE GFDL ARE TO THE LEFT OF THEIR PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS.  SINCE LANE SEEMS TO BE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGING TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THAT TRACK.\r\n\r\nUPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...AND NOW\r\nTHAT LANE IS FINALLY GETTING ORGANIZED IT SHOULD REACH HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 HR.  STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANE\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 16.7N 109.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 17.3N 109.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 18.3N 110.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.4N 111.2W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 112.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 08 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATES THAT LANE HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65\r\nKT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN APPEARANCE OF A 25NM CLOUD-\r\nFILLED EYE ON THE LAST 2 VISIBLE IMAGES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING.  LANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nTRACK NORTHWEST AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AFTER 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS\r\nTHE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONVERGENCE OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nLANE HAS UNDERGONE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH\r\nMAY CONTINUE INTO THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT.\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOME NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER THE PAST COUPLE\r\nOF HOURS...BUT ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD COTINUE UNTIL LANE\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 48 HR.\r\n\r\nNOTE:  THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE SIGNIFCANTLY EXPANDED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST BASED ON 00Z SHIPS REPORTS WEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. \r\nHOWEVER...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN\r\nTHE EAST SEMICIRCLE WILL WEAKEN BY 12 TO 18 HOURS AS LANE MOVES\r\nFARTHER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 17.4N 109.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 18.4N 110.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 111.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 20.6N 113.1W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/09.  AN EAST/WEST RIDGE ACROSS\r\nMEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LANE ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CURVE TO THE LEFT THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMIALR TO AND AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER LARGE BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR 78 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS BUT THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE DUE TO THE IMPRESSIVE EYE\r\nFEATURE AND PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII ARE QUICKLY DECREASED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE FUNNELING EFFECT\r\nOF ITS HIGH TERRAIN.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE STRONG WINDS JUST OFFSHORE\r\nFROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...SOME RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AND\r\nHIGH WAVES COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 18.4N 110.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 19.6N 111.1W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 20.8N 112.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 22.8N 115.3W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 24.5N 118.0W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000\r\n \r\nLANE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A BANDING TYPE EYE WHICH IS\r\nCROSSING VERY NEAR OR OVER SOCORRO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT\r\nIMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IS GOOD ENOUGH\r\nTO BRING THE WINDS UP TO 70 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE\r\nHURRICANE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS WHICH INDEED ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.\r\nON THIS TRACK LANE WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA BUT BECAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LARGE...SQUALLS WITH\r\nSTRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COSTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 18.9N 110.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 24.5N 120.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF LANE PASSED VERY NEAR OR OVER SOCORRO ISLAND EARLIER\r\nTODAY AND THE STATION REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 973.7 MB.  IN\r\nADDITION...T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN ABOUT 24-36\r\nHOURS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTERWARD AS THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WATER THAT IS LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS.\r\n\r\nLANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...KEEPING LANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK.  ON THIS COURSE...THE LARGE HURRICANE WILL PARALLEL BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND CONTINUE SPREADING SQUALLS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS\r\nAND HEAVY SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST.  AS LANE BEGINS TO WEAKEN\r\nOVER COOLER WATER...A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 20.1N 112.0W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.2N 113.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.5N 116.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 24.5N 117.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 26.0N 122.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 09 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LANE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON INSPITE OF THE 60NM DIAMETER EYE...AND DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF \r\n85 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 TO 85 KT FROM\r\nALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND A DATA-T NUMBER OF 5.0...OR 90\r\nKT...FROM KGWC.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IMPROVING\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IN TAKING LANE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nTURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTERWARDS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERS THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n \r\nWITH SUCH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTERWARD AS THE HURRICANE TRACKS OVER\r\n25C SST WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTERWARDS\r\nTHAN SHIPS IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nNOTE...DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF HURRICANE LANE...SQUALLS WITH STRONG\r\nGUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...HIGH SEAS AND POUNDING SURF CONDITIONS\r\nWILL OCCUR ALONG BOTH COASTS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH\r\nOF 25N LATITUDE.  HIGH SEAS AND ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE\r\nEXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO MAINLY NORTH OF MANZANILLO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 20.8N 113.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 21.8N 114.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N 116.4W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.8N 118.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 24.5N 120.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 25.5N 124.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000\r\n\r\nLANE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE...60 N MI DIAMETER...EYE AND AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS.  THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 85\r\nKNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY\r\nUNTIL THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE WOBBLED A BIT TOWARD THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT BASED ON\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION...THE HEADING ESTIMATE IS STILL 305 DEGREES.  THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nHOLD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...THERE\r\nCOULD BE COMPLICATIONS.  A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC\r\nVORTEX IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS NEAR 34N137W AND IN\r\nTHE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS.  THE AVN AND U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS FEATURE MOVING EASTWARD AND ERODING THE\r\nRIDGE...THUS INDUCING A MORE NORTHWARD STEERING FOR LANE IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  OF COURSE...BY THAT TIME...LANE COULD BE\r\nSO WEAK THAT IT WILL NOT RESPOND MUCH TO DEEPER-LAYER STEERING.  THE\r\nLATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT AT\r\n72 HOURS WHERE IT IS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD SOMEWHAT.  THIS IS\r\nBETWEEN THE U.K. MET AND GFDL TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 20.8N 114.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 21.7N 115.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 22.9N 117.3W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.0N 119.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.0N 120.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N 123.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH LANE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM\r\n77 TO 90 KNOTS AND SO THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 85\r\nKNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE\r\nCONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE VERY LARGE EYE...BUT LITTLE OR\r\nNO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE HURRICANE MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n300/9.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DISCUSSED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BOTH THE UKMET AND THE AVN WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LANE AS A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 34N135W MOVES EASTWARD.  THE\r\nNOGAPS KEEPS A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE IN PLACE TO KEEP LANE ON A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMPLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND REMAINS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE GFDL.  IF LANE WEAKENS\r\nLESS RAPIDLY THAN FORECAST THEN A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BECOMES LIKELY.  IN ANY EVENT...LARGE QUANTITIES OF\r\nMOISTURE FROM LANE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 21.2N 114.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 21.9N 116.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 23.1N 117.7W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 24.3N 119.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 28.0N 123.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN EARLIER AND THE\r\nEYE HAS CONTRACTED A BIT...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB HAVE BEEN 4.5...77 KT...FOR 12 HOURS NOW...AND SO\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT.  LANE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND SHOULD THEN SLOWLY SPIN DOWN. \r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND GIVEN THE LARGE ENVELOPE OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM...THE FORECAST DECAY IS NOT AS FAST AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE OR\r\nAS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 300 DEGREES BUT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS\r\nBEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS.  THIS PROBABLY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LANE\r\nIS DECREASING AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  BOTH THE UKMET AND THE AVN WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nLARGE QUANTITIES OF MOISTURE FROM LANE ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. STATES OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 21.5N 115.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 21.9N 116.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 22.9N 118.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 28.5N 122.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 10 2000\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY WARMING CLOUD\r\nTOPS IN THE EYEWALL...AND ALSO BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n75 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS\r\nSYMMETRICAL WITH A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nGRADUALLY ERODE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LANE\r\nAS A TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTS\r\nEASTWARD.  ALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN\r\nTAKING LANE MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE LONE OUTLIER IS THE\r\nUKMET MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS.  IF LANE\r\nWEAKENS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING...THEN THE\r\nREMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST\r\nBY THE SURFACE-BASED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BY\r\n48 HOURS BE OVER 20C SST WATER.  THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN MAY\r\nHELP TO OFFSET THE WEAKENING PROCESS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nBUT RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nNOTE...SOME MID- AND MOSTLY HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nU.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 21.9N 116.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 22.4N 117.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 23.3N 119.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 24.3N 120.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 25.5N 122.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 28.5N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED ON BOTH IR AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS WEAKENING.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECLINE...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70\r\nKNOTS.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS WEAK AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS IMPRESSIVE...LANE IS APPROACHING 25 DEG C OR COOLER WATERS. \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nIT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LARGE CIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN...BUT\r\nLANE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS 300/10.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT A MID-\r\nLEVEL CYCLONE...CURRENTLY NEAR 35N122W...TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAND WEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF LANE.  CONSISTENT WITH THESE CHANGES\r\nIN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE TRACK GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nSHALLOW-LAYER BAM...SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED JUST A BIT FARTHER TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.     \r\n \r\nMID- TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM LANE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 22.4N 117.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 23.2N 118.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 24.5N 120.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 26.0N 121.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N 122.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 30.0N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF LANE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE WARM.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE\r\nSTILL 4.0 SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KT FOR NOW...BUT LANE\r\nWILL NOT BE A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR CONTINUED WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS BUT NOT QUITE AS QUICKLY\r\nAS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THIS LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN...BUT LANE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nMOTION REMAINS 300/10.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT A\r\nMID-LEVEL CYCLONE...CURRENTLY NEAR 35N122W...TO MOVE TO THE \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF LANE.  CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHESE CHANGES IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE TRACK GUIDANCE...\r\nINCLUDING THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM...SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM LANE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 23.0N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 23.7N 119.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 24.9N 121.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 26.5N 122.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 28.0N 123.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nLOW NORTHWEST OF THE STORM AND WEST OF CALIFORNIA THAT SHOULD CAUSE\r\nLANE TO RECURVE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE BUT NOT AS\r\nFAST AS THE FASTEST MODELS...BAM DEEP AND MEDIUM AND THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL...WHICH BRING THE SYSTEM ACROSS\r\nCALIFORNIA INTO NEVADA IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES MOVING LANE OVER COLD WATER AND\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE CONSENSUS OF SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WAS 60 KNOTS.  BY 72 HOURS...ONLY A LOW\r\nLEVEL SWIRL OF CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AND THIS SWIRL SHOULD\r\nNOT MOVE AS FAST AS FORECAST BY THE FASTEST MODELS.  EVEN THOUGH A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH CALIFORNIA...SOME OF THE\r\nASSOCIATED MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 23.4N 119.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 24.2N 121.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 25.5N 122.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 27.0N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 28.5N 123.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 32.5N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 11 2000\r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE SYSTEM CENTER...ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED CELLS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 55 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  LANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN\r\nPOSSIBLY MAKE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  HOWEVER...\r\nA TURN TO THE NORTH WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW DEEP THE CIRCULATION\r\nIS AT THAT TIME.  LANE WILL BE MOVING OVER 20C SST WATER IN 36 HOURS\r\nWHICH SHOULD CAUSE ANY REMAINING CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE.  THE\r\nREMNANTS WILL BE A LARGE SWIRL OF MOSTLY LOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS\r\nWHICH WOULD BECOME STATIONARY OR DRIFT OFF THE WEST AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nLANE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL TAKE LONGER THAN NORMAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nSPIN DOWN.  ALSO...EVEN THOUGH A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nREACH CALIFORNIA...SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nU.S. DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 24.7N 121.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 26.1N 123.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 27.7N 123.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 29.5N 123.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n\r\nTHE WEAKENING PROCESS CONTINUES...AS LANE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF STRONGER VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR BEGINNING OVER THE SYSTEM...SINCE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AND MORE NORTHWARD-ORIENTED.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER COLD WATERS IN 36 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...310/10...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF LANE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.   DEEPER-LAYER STEERING\r\nWOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE ACCELERATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN\r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER LANE...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...SHOULD BE SO WEAK AND SHALLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THAT A\r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LANE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 24.8N 121.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 25.8N 122.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 27.6N 123.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":29,"Date":"2000-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n \r\nLANE IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS ABOUT 12\r\nHOURS AGO SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE DISSIPATING\r\nOVER COLD WATERS IN 36 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 310/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF LANE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH.   DEEPER-LAYER STEERING WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nACCELERATED OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER LANE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD BE SO WEAK AND\r\nSHALLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THAT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACCELERATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NUDGED TOWARD\r\nTHE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LANE IS LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 25.6N 121.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 26.2N 122.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 27.6N 123.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 29.2N 124.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N 124.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":30,"Date":"2000-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL 45 KT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS\r\nMORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 40 KT...AND THE\r\nLATTER IS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE DOWN TO ABOUT 22C BUT THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST\r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 310/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM.  \r\n\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH LANE IS SPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 26.0N 123.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 27.1N 124.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 28.9N 125.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N 124.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED... \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":31,"Date":"2000-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 12 2000\r\n \r\nA BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE\r\nEVENING...SHOWING THAT LANE IS STILL ALIVE DESPITE BEING OVER 21C\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE BURST\r\nIS LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST SOUTHWEST OF LANE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLANE IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 325/10...AND THE SHORT-TERM\r\nMOTION MAY BE EVEN MORE TO THE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nA MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 38N132W AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS COMBINATION IS\r\nSHOULD MOVED LANE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE REST OF ITS LIFE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST DUE TO THE CHANGE IN MOTION...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE BAMS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT TROUGH INTERACTION HAS LIKELY EXTENDED LANE'S LIFE AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE\r\nWILL SHEAR OUT AND STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE STORM.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE VERY COLD WATER LANE\r\nSHOULD RESUME WEAKENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE...SOME REMNANT LOW MAY\r\nPERSIST AFTER DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD NEAR OR JUST OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE AND OUTFLOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LANE ARE CURRENTLY\r\nSPREADING INTO PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND OREGON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 27.0N 123.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 28.4N 124.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 30.4N 124.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.4N 124.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 34.5N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":32,"Date":"2000-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION THAT WAS PRODUCED EARLIER VIA THE INTERACTION WITH\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST.  MOISTURE AND OUTFLOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LANE ARE\r\nSPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND OREGON.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS NEARING 20 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS.  OVER THESE COOL\r\nWATERS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED STABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWER\r\nTROPOSPHERE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR STRONG WINDS ABOVE THE\r\nBOUNDARY LAYER TO BE MIXED TO THE SURFACE UNLESS NEW CONVECTION\r\nDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  LANE IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM ON\r\nTHIS PACKAGE BUT IT SHOULD SOON WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION...AND BE\r\nDISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL\r\nBE NEARING THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE HEADING IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWARD...350/11.  BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW-\r\nLAYER BAM TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 28.3N 123.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.0N 123.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.2N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 34.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lane","Adv":33,"Date":"2000-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE WELL BELOW STORM STRENGTH.  THEREFORE LANE\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE ONLY REMAINING\r\nSIGNIFICANCE TO THIS SYSTEM IS THAT MOISTURE HAS SPREAD AHEAD OF IT\r\nACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/14.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS OVER SSTS BELOW 20C.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 29.9N 123.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 32.0N 123.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 34.5N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lane","Adv":34,"Date":"2000-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n \r\nAS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  WATER TEMPS ARE QUITE COLD UNDER THE DEPRESSION\r\nAND LANE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS.  THE\r\nONLY REMAINING SIGNIFICANCE TO THIS SYSTEM IS THAT UPPER LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE HAS SPREAD AHEAD OF IT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND\r\nNEVADA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/15.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS THE DEPRESSION IS ADVECTED\r\nNORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW WEST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 31.4N 122.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 33.7N 122.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 36.7N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lane","Adv":35,"Date":"2000-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2000\r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW TOO WEAK TO\r\nCLASSIFY...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 015/16.  THE DEEP LAYER CIRCULATION WEST\r\nOF CALIFORNIA SHOULD KEEP LANE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN\r\n24 HR OR SO.  WHILE MOISTURE FROM LANE CONTINUES SPREADING OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA...NEVADA...AND OREGON...MUCH OF IT IS GETTING\r\nWRAPPED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC AROUND THE DEEP LAYER\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LANE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 33.0N 121.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 35.3N 121.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY IN THE DISTURBANCE OFF\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. SHORT BANDED FEATURES CLEARLY DEFINE\r\nTHE CENTER...AND TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED T-NUMBERS OF 2.0...30\r\nKT...AT 18Z.  SHIP REPORTS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION IS LIKELY PRESENT AT THE SURFACE.  THESE OBSERVATIONS\r\nARE USED IN UPGRADING THE DISTURBANCE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIFTEEN-E.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS MOVED STEADILY TOWARD THE NW TO NNW AT ABOUT 10 KT\r\nOVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL VORTEX CENTERED NEAR LOS MOCHIS.  THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS\r\nFEATURE WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FUTURE TRACK.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS...\r\nAND AVN HAVE SIMILAR...FASCINATING...EVOLUTIONS. THEY APPEAR TO\r\nSPLIT THE LOW IN THE VERTICAL WITH THE 500 MB COMPONENT MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST TO WSW...AND THE 200 MB PART OPENING UP AND MOVING\r\nSLOWLY TO THE NORTH.  TRACK MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL PORTION...TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG HIGH OFF CALIFORNIA.  THE MODEL TRACKS HEAD NNW-NW AT\r\nFIRST...THEN BEND TOWARD THE WNW BY THE END OF THE 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST.  WITH WARM\r\nWATER ALONG THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WHEN IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FOR THE PENINSULA SOUTH OF 24N LATITUDE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 19.6N 107.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.9N 108.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 22.6N 109.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 23.9N 111.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 27.0N 116.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E DISAPPEARED\r\nDURING THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NOW\r\nDEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE \r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AND VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON\r\nTHE TRACK.  AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE TIME THE CYCLONE\r\nARRIVES.  THEN THERE IS THE QUESTION OF WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nTRACK OVER THE COLD WATER WEST OF BAJA...THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF\r\nOF CALIFORNIA...OR UP THE PENINSULA.  SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nPASSES OVER THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE COLD WATER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AND\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 20.6N 107.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.9N 108.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.4N 110.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 24.7N 111.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E HAS INCREASED\r\nSOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS POORLY ORGANIZED.  WHILE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...SHIP C6LF9...LOCATED NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...REPORTED 1007.1 MB AND 20 KT AT 06Z.  THUS THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE SHIP ALSO SUGGESTS THE\r\nCENTER IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THUS CAUSING A\r\nRARE NIGHTTIME RE-LOCATION.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 335/8.  A MID/LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY AND VERY MUCH\r\nDEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY THE TIME THE CYCLONE ARRIVES.  SINCE\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK STILL PASSES OVER THE PENINSULA AND INTO THE COLD\r\nWATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AND GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTERWARDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 20.6N 107.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 21.7N 108.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 23.0N 109.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 24.4N 111.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 25.5N 113.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS STILL NOT VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  SOME MORE INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN BAJA.  LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFORECASTS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR CENTRAL BAJA TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD.  THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD CAUSE THE HEADING OF\r\nMIRIAM TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER VERY NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL\r\nMODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 21.1N 108.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 21.7N 108.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 22.7N 109.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 23.8N 111.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 25.0N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM WITH\r\nRAGGED CONVECTION.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL BAJA APPEARS\r\nTO BE PRODUCING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nSTILL SUPPORT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH.  BASED ON THE RATHER\r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO\r\nTHE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND THEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/8.  THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE OVER\r\nBAJA...WHICH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTS AS AN INVERTED\r\nTROUGH...IS PRODUCING A MOVEMENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN\r\nEARLIER ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST...AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS STILL LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS THE MID/UPPER CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 21.9N 108.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 23.0N 108.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 110.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 25.0N 112.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 27.5N 118.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2000\r\n \r\nTHE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY SHOWED AN EXPOSED LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL BAJA WHICH IS PRODUCING SOME\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE CERTAINTY OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  BASED ON THE RATHER\r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  WEAKENING\r\nIS LIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND THEN DUE TO COOLER\r\nWATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 315/5...SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS SPEED.  THE DIRECTION INDICATES THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE PREDICTING IN PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGES AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 21.6N 108.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 22.1N 109.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 22.8N 110.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.6N 111.2W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 24.7N 112.9W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS MIRIAM LOST MOST OF HER DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nTHEN REGAINED SOME OF IT WITH A BURST ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS STILL MAINTAIN A 40 KNOT SYSTEM. \r\nHOWEVER...QUICKSCAT WIND ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE WIND\r\nMAXIMUM IS SOMEWHAT LESS.  THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO\r\nTHE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND THEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/9...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT A LITTLE FASTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 22.9N 109.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 23.9N 110.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 25.1N 112.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 26.1N 114.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 27.2N 116.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 28.8N 119.9W    20 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Miriam","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION PLACE THE CENTER OF\r\nMIRIAM IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THERE ARE\r\nNO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND MIRIAM IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS EXTIMATED AS 340/8.  WITH THE CENTER IN THE\r\nGULF...THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\nWATERS ARE WARM AND SOMETIMES SMALL SYSTEMS CAN THRIVE IN THE\r\nGULF...BUT SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 24.0N 109.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 25.5N 110.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 26.5N 112.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 27.6N 113.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 28.7N 115.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 31.0N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Miriam","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nMIRIAM HAS DISSIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nREMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE GENERATING INTERMITTENT CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN GULF AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nAND MAINLAND MEXICO...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME FLOODING.  THIS WILL\r\nBE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nNONE \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 19 2000\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND HAS DEVELOPED\r\nINTO TROPICAL SIXTEEN-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW\r\nHAS IMPROVED AND IS MORE CIRCULAR...AND THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS INCREASED WITH A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -85C TO \r\n-88C ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH AT 2 KT. \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E IS EXPECTED TO ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN.\r\nHOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST\r\nIS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WESTWARD AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON SOME WEAK RIDGING TO OCCUR NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE FORWARD SPEED LOW AND ALSO\r\nPOSSIBLY KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY THROUGH\r\n24 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER SOME LAND INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO WHICH MAY ACT TO DISRUPT THE\r\nINFLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  HOWEVER...THE WATER IS\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM...ABOVE 29C...FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nIN 72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE VERY\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS\r\nSYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY FASTER AND ALSO BE STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS INDICATING.  OBVIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nHIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE SYSTEM REMAINING OVER WATER THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 16.9N 103.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.2N 103.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.7N 103.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 18.2N 104.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 18.5N 104.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 105.5W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND THE DEPRESSION IS VERY\r\nNEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT\r\nIS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE VERY INTENSE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE NORTHWARD ABOUT 2 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE SYSTEM OVERALL IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nVERY NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2 OR\r\n3 DAYS.  THE SLOW MOTION COULD RESULT IN TORRENTIAL RAINS..LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 17.3N 103.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.7N 103.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 103.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 103.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 105.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n \r\nSHIP 3ESU8 REPORTED 38 KT AND 1001.5 MB AT 12Z...AND SHIP LADQ4\r\nREPORTED 39 KT AND 1003.0 MB AT 13Z.  THUS TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSIXTEEN-E HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM NORMAN.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHIP REPORT INDICATES NORMAN IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS 025/6. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO THAT SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE STORM ON A NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK.  HOWEVER...ANY CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION WOULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER INLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK MOVES NORMAN INLAND\r\nAND GRADUALLY CURVES IT NORTHWESTWARD AS IT DISSIPATES.  IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT NORMAN COULD TURN MORE SHARPLY AND EMERGE OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nNORMAN SHOWS CLOUD TOPS TO -83C...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 TO 48 HR.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN OCCURS EARLY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STORM NEAR OR\r\nOVER WATER...IT COULD STAY ALIVE FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SLOW MOTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...COULD RESULT IN\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE\r\nLIKELY\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 18.0N 102.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 102.8W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.2N 103.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.8N 103.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH RAPID-SCAN VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS HARD\r\nTO LOCATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nMOVING 360/2 AND IS NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB. \r\nTHUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY\r\nSUGGESTING SOME KIND OF WESTWARD TURN.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER\r\nTHIS WILL HAPPEN BEFORE THE STORM GETS FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO\r\nDISSIPATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT\r\nNORMAN WILL CONTINUE ENOUGH OF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO DISSIPATE\r\nOVER LAND. \r\n\r\nNORMAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTION...AND IF THE CENTER\r\nWERE NOT NEAR THE COAST IT WOULD PROBABLY STRENGTHEN.  WITH THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK INTO THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY 48 HR.  HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC...ALL BETS ARE OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nWITH THE SLOW MOTION OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...TORRENTIAL RAINS\r\nAND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 18.2N 103.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.6N 103.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 103.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N 103.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 20 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nINLAND AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT NORMAN HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION.\r\nEVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF\r\nMAJOR FLOODING FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES.  WHILE IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY EMERGE BACK OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS IN\r\nA DAY OR SO...THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY BE SO DISRUPTED BY THE\r\nMEXICAN TERRAIN BY THAT TIME THAT A COMEBACK IS NOT LIKELY. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATER SOONER THAN\r\nEXPECTED...THE SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...310/4.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION APPARENTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 18.7N 103.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.1N 104.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.6N 104.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 105.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nWELL INLAND. THE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY ILL DEFINED WHILE\r\nINTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.  THERE ARE\r\nBANDS OF STRONG CONVECTION OFFSHORE BUT ARE WEAKENING AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE WHILE\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nA CHANCE OF REGENERATION IS THE SYSTEM MOVES BACK OVER WATER SOONER\r\nTHAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nTHE THREAT OF MAJOR FLOODING FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 19.8N 104.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N 104.8W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT MAY HAVE MOVED OR REFORMED\r\nCLOSER TO THE COAST...AND I AM LOATH TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM WITHOUT\r\nCONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...AND IF A CIRCULATION\r\nEMERGES BACK INTO THE WARM WATERS THEN SOME REGENERATION COULD\r\nOCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PROVIDES A 72 HR TRACK ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT NORMAN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE.  IF THIS OCCURS... A NEW\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. \r\nHOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY MAY SOON INDICATE THAT THERE IS NOTHING\r\nLEFT.\r\n\r\nTHE THREAT OF MAJOR FLOODING FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 20.2N 105.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 20.7N 106.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.7N 107.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.9N 108.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 24.5N 108.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 28.5N 108.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT A SMALL CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS NEAR\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST...AND WHILE THE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...\r\nTHERE IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT HOLDING ON TO NORMAN A WHILE LONGER.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NOW 300/3.  AS\r\nA RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE BUT FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH OFFSHORE.  UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS\r\nWOULD SUGGEST THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER\r\nCLEARS THE COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES FROM\r\nPUNTO SAN TELMO TO PUERTO VALLARTA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 20.3N 105.4W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.5N 105.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.3N 106.7W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 22.4N 107.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 21 2000\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN HAS REMAINED OVER WATER AND IS MOVING\r\nFASTER TO THE NORTHWEST.  NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AND BE INLAND AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE FORECAST GUIDANCE AND VERY\r\nCLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nLAND INTERACTION IS STILL INHIBITING ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION.  UNTIL\r\nNORMAN MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  DUE TO SOME CONTINUED LAND\r\nINTERACTION...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT NORMAN WOULD STRENGTHEN TO MUCH\r\nABOVE MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nHOWEVER...NORMAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM\r\nTHESE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FROM PUNTO SAN TELMO TO\r\nPUERTO VALLARTA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 20.9N 105.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N 106.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 22.4N 107.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 23.5N 107.9W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 108.5W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n\r\nTROPIAL DEPRESSION NORMAN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OTHER THAN A\r\nLARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER AND ALSO INLAND\r\nALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A 22/0105Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING WESTERLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED\r\nWINDS OF 35 TO  40 KT SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT\r\n30 TO 32 KT CORRECTED SURFACE WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/09.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND MOVE INLAND BY 36 HOURS. THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nEXCEPT THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER DUE TO EXPECTED\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE HIGH MOUNTIANOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWEST MEXICO.\r\n \r\nLAND INTERACTION SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION\r\nBEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORMAN COULD BRIEFLY\r\nREACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...\r\nBUT THESE WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND MAINLY IN SQUALLS\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD BE AN OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN.\r\n \r\nHOWEVER...NORMAN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THE THREAT OF FLOODING FROM\r\nPOSSIBLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OR MORE WILL CONTINUE\r\nMAINLY FROM PUERTO VALLARTA NORTH TO LOS MOCHIS MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 22.0N 106.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 23.1N 107.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 24.7N 108.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 25.9N 108.6W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 27.0N 108.5W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nSURFACE REPORTS AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE VERY\r\nSMALL CIRCULATION OF NORMAN IS MAKING LANDFALL NEAR MAZATLAN.  THE\r\nINTIAL MOTION IS 000/10 WHICH WILL TAKE THE CENTER INLAND OVER ROUGH\r\nTERRAIN LATER TODAY...AND ELIMINATES THE POSSIBILITY OF NORMAN\r\nREGAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY\r\nRAINS...MAINLY FROM SAN BLAS NORTHWARD TO LOS MOCHIS...AND INLAND IN\r\nTHE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 23.3N 106.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 24.3N 106.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 22 2000\r\n \r\nNORMAN CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRACK INLAND NORTH OF MAZATLAN.  ANY\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION THAT STILL EXISTS WILL BE MOVING OVER ROUGH\r\nTERRAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND DISSIPATE.  THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD GENERATING HEAVY RAINS FROM\r\nMAZATLAN NORTHWARD...AND INLAND IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ARE LIKELY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 24.3N 106.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 26.1N 106.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO SHOW THAT THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nDEPRESSION.  BASED ON A NEARBY SHIP REPORT...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nIS QUITE SMALL AT THIS TIME.  SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG\r\nOVER THE AREA...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOVEMENT IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/4.  THERE\r\nIS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT\r\nTHIS TIME...WHICH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS TO BE SLOWLY WEAKENING\r\nIN ITS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT BEND TO THE\r\nRIGHT WITH A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 15.5N 103.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.6N 104.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.0N 105.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.3N 106.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.7N 106.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST IT IS CLOSE TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 N MI SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER REPORTED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 26 KNOTS. \r\nTHERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...BUT IT DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5.  THERE IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL\r\nSHOWS SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD\r\nSPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSOLUTIONS SHOWN BY THE MEDIUM BETA ADVECTION AND U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 15.5N 104.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 15.5N 104.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.2N 106.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 109.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 02 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5/2.5/1.5 FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/KGWC...SO THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  BUT THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE BANDING FEATURE CONTRIBUTING TO\r\nCLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AT 00Z HAVE WARMED A BIT IN THE LAST HOUR OR\r\nTWO AND I WILL HOLD OFF FOR SIX MORE HOURS BEFORE UPGRADING TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLING FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM WATER\r\nAHEAD AND VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES HAS\r\nINCREASED A LITTLE TO BECOME A MILDLY NEGATIVE FACTOR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/04.  THE AVIATION MODEL WEAKENS\r\nTHE 500 MB RIDGE OVER MEXICO AS A LOW NEAR 29N 125W KICKS OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD\r\nSPEED WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET\r\nMODEL...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 15.5N 104.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.6N 104.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.7N 106.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 16.2N 107.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.8N 108.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.2N 110.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5/3.0/1.5 FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/KGWC...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nEVEN THOUGH I AM RELUCTANT TO DO THIS BASED ON ON INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nWITHOUT KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER FROM EITHER SSM/I\r\nOR QUICKSCAT.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING BASED ON WARM SSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03.  A 500 MB RIDGE OVER MEXICO\r\nAND A LOW BECOMING A TROUGH NEAR 29N 125W SHOULD STEER THE STORM ON\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER SLOW\r\nMOTION AND THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE VERY SLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT A HAIR\r\nSLOWER...NOT EXCEEDING FIVE KNOTS FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 15.4N 104.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.4N 105.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.6N 106.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N 106.9W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.4N 107.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING...WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nA RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE AREA.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES\r\nTO AFFECT OLIVIA...SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVERNIGHT.  LATEST GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 15.3N 104.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 15.4N 104.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 106.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 107.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING...OLIVIA HAS DEVELOPED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TODAY.  A CURVED BAND WRAPS AT LEAST 3/4 OF THE WAY\r\nAROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  DATA AND FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE...55 KNOTS.  SSM/I DATA INDICATED THE FORMATION OF A\r\nPARTIAL EYEWALL.  OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE\r\nEARLY TOMORROW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...280/4.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE STORM AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAINTAINS THE\r\nHIGH TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS REGIME\r\nWOULD MAINTAIN A WEST- TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 15.5N 104.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 15.6N 105.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 15.9N 106.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 110.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 03 2000\r\n \r\nAN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 1523Z SUGGESTED A FORMATIVE EYE...AND IT TRIED\r\nTO BRIEFLY APPEAR IN VISIBLE IMAGERY JUST BEFORE SUNDOWN.  THESE\r\nSUGGEST THAT OLIVIA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT...55 KT...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA...SO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH\r\nMULTIPLE SHORTWAVES NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 115W...AND WEAK RIDGING\r\nJUST NORTH OF OLIVIA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL\r\nBUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nSOME SPREAD IN THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOWER MOTION...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION OF 280/4...THE NOGAPS...AND THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...OLIVIA SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO AS IT HAS DONE TODAY.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND\r\nEITHER STOP INTENSIFICATION OF PERHAPS WEAKEN THE STORM.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEVEL OFF THE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HR. \r\nIT IS NOTABLE THAT THE NOGAPS FORECAST LESS SHEAR THAN THE AVN...\r\nAND OLIVIA COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF IT\r\nVERIFIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 15.6N 105.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 15.7N 105.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 15.9N 106.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.2N 107.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N 108.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n \r\nIR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE FORMATIVE EYE OBSERVED\r\nEARLIER IS NO LONGER APPARENT BUT THERE ARE STRONG CONVECTIVE CELLS\r\nTO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY\r\nINCREASE...THE WATER IS WARM SO...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...NONE OF INTENSITY\r\nMODELS BRING THE WINDS UP TO 80 KNOTS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BUT I PREFER NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT T HIS\r\nTIME. \r\n \r\nOLIVIA IS MOVING 285/07...A LITTLE BIT FASTER.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS LOCATED SOUTH OF STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD\r\nFAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN\r\nFACT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING  OF THE RIDGE\r\nBY TURNING OLIVIA TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 15.9N 106.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 16.1N 107.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 109.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 112.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISRUPTED THE SYSTEM SOMEWHAT...AND HALTED THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WAS NOTED EARLIER.  THERE ARE STILL SOME\r\nBANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNOT ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND\r\nPERHAPS LESS SO.  BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD.\r\n\r\nMORNING VISUAL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NOT AS FAR WEST\r\nAS EARLIER ESTIMATED.  INITIAL MOTION IS REDUCED TO 290/5.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF OLIVIA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE IS\r\nRATHER WEAK.  ONLY A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST. \r\nTHIS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY DUE TO\r\nTHE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL LOCATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 16.0N 106.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.3N 107.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.8N 109.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n\r\nAFTER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECAME NEARLY EXPOSED EARLIER\r\nTODAY...NEW CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nOLIVIA IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...\r\nUSING THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION RULES...ARE 55 KNOTS.  EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND THE AVN MODEL SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED...ABOUT 285/04.  BASED ON SOME MORE VISUAL IMAGES...THE\r\nCENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS LOCATIONS.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THAT A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nPREVAIL NORTH OF OLIVIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS A SLOW...GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...MOTION\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS FOLLOW A\r\nWEST TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY...BUT ARE GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE NHC\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 16.0N 106.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.1N 106.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.3N 107.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 109.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 04 2000\r\n \r\nOLIVIA CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION RULES...ARE\r\nNOW 45/55/55 KNOTS FROM SAB/TAFB/AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST TECHNIQUE CALCULATES THIS AS A MAJOR REASON FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRROWS THIS REASONING.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND IS NOW...ABOUT 285/05. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO PREVAIL NORTH OF OLIVIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT\r\nBECOME STRONGER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A SLOW...GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nMOTION DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nOBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER MODELS...\r\nNOTABLY...THE AVN AND NOGAPS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 16.1N 106.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.3N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.6N 108.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 109.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N 114.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nOLIVIA CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION RULES...REMAIN\r\nAT 45/55/55 KNOTS FROM SAB/TAFB/AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST TECHNIQUE CALCULATES THIS AS A MAJOR REASON FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO MIRROR THIS REASONING.\r\n \r\nOLIVIA APPEARS TO BE PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING AT\r\n280/07.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHAT A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL NORTH\r\nOF OLIVIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT BECOME STRONGER DURING THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS\r\nA GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AND A\r\nSLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO HAVE GOTTEN THEIR ACT\r\nTOGETHER...ALTHOUGH THE AVN MODEL TAKES A TORTUROUS ROUTE TO GET TO\r\nTHE SAME PLACE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 16.1N 107.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.2N 108.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N 110.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 112.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N 114.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER OLIVIA...AS IMPLIED BY THE SHARP EAST\r\nEDGE OF THE COLD CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING.  TOPS HAVE WARMED A\r\nLITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT DVORAK TECHNIQUES ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ALL SUPPORT RETAINING 55 KT AS THE\r\nINITIAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT\r\nEASY TO IDENTIFY ON IR IMAGERY...THE ANALYSTS ESTIMATES ARE CLOSE\r\nTOGETHER AND INDICATE A LITTLE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...275/5 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z AVN SHOWS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA HOLDING THROUGH\r\nTHREE DAYS WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ON TRACK FROM THE TROUGH OFF THE \r\nCALIFORNIA EXPECTED.  CONSEQUENTLY...THAT MODEL FORECASTS A WESTWARD\r\nTRACK THOUGH THREE DAYS.  THE GFDL SHOWS THE TROUGH ERODING THE\r\nWESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE A LITTLE.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A WNW HEADING.\r\nMOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS MODEST RANGE OF SOLUTIONS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE CURRENT TREND POINTS TOWARD WEAKENING...SHIPS SHOWS A SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS.  INDEED...TODAYS\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN A FEW DAYS. \r\nSINCE THERE COULD BE AN INTERIM PERIOD OF LITTLE SHEAR...THIS\r\nFORECAST WILL NOT SHOW THE WEAKENING BY DAY 3 INDICATED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 16.1N 107.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.2N 108.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.3N 109.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 111.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.9N 113.1W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIAWRKPD2 LOC\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE PICTURES CONFIRM NE SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL AND THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEP FROM\r\nDROPPING THE MAXIMUM WINDS TOO FAST.  45 KT HAS BEEN SELECTED...THE\r\nSAME AS THE LOWEST OF THE 18Z ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE SATELLITE\r\nANALYSIS CENTERS. THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF\r\nWEST..ABOUT 260/6 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND AVN BOTH SHOW THE RIDGE NORTH OF OLIVIA GIVING AWAY IN\r\nTHE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE TRACK TURNING NORTHWARD AND\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE END OF THAT PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN THE TURN DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THE\r\nWEAKENING CENTER WILL MORE LIKELY FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING\r\nCURRENT INDICATED BY THE BAMS.\r\n \r\nSHIPS NO LONGER FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE...\r\nPROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR OLIVIA TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 15.8N 108.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.7N 109.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.7N 110.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 16.4N 114.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 05 2000\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.  IT HAS CERTAINLY TAKEN ITS TOLL WHEN ONE COMPARES THE AREA\r\nOF COLD CLOUD TOPS TONIGHT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  LIKEWISE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS ALSO DECREASED BY 10 KNOTS.  THE SAME\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THIS SAME SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. \r\nIF THIS IS THE CASE THE SYSTEM WOULD BE REDUCED TO...AT BEST...A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SAME TIME PERIOD.  IN THE FACE OF THIS\r\nSTRONG POSSIBILITY... THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WANTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE\r\nTHE INTENSITY TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN AT 55/55/45 FROM TAFB/SAB/AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS AND 45 KNOTS IS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES  MOVING SOUTH OF WEST..ABOUT 260/5 KT OVER THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS.  BOTH THE AVN...UKMET AND GFDL HAVE SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHIS MIGHT HAPPEN AND WOULD CONTINUE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM TURNS ON A MORE WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nDIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FOLLOWS THIS SUGGESTION BUT DOES NOT MOVE\r\nAS FAST IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nDO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK AND NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE AVN AND UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.6N 109.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.7N 110.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N 111.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 113.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 117.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nOLIVIA APPEARS TO BE GOING DOWN HILL FAST.  THE STRONG EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL. THE SYSTEM HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND I AM DECREASING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTAKES OLIVIA TO A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY\r\nHAVE SEVERAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT\r\nSLOWLY WINDS DOWN.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH OF WEST..ABOUT 250/4 KT.   WITH\r\nTHE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DOMINATE AND THE\r\nBAMS IS A GOOD CHOICE FOR TRACK FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SUGGESTION AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 15.5N 109.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.4N 109.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.5N 110.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N 111.9W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.5N 113.6W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n \r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REAPPEARED OVER THE CENTER AND THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nINDICATES A SLIGHT EASING OF VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH IS PROBABLY\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS OLIVIA CONTINUES MOVING OVER WARM WATER.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...\r\nWITH THE MOTION BEING INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER\r\nMEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 15.4N 109.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.4N 110.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N 111.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N 118.5W    45 KTS\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION THAT APPEARED EARLIER OVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO\r\nBE GETTING SHEARED FROM THE EAST...AGAIN.  THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nDECREASED 5 KNOTS TO 40 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE IS MAINTAINED THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD WELL BE SEVERAL MORE FLUCTUATIONS.\r\n \r\nAS BEFORE...THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY...WITH THE MOTION BEING INFLUENCED BY A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 15.5N 109.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 15.4N 110.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 15.5N 111.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N 112.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.7N 114.8W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...ONLY TO\r\nWEAKEN A FEW HOURS LATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB INDICATED 45 KT AT 00Z...BUT CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN\r\nWEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR\r\nTO POOR TO THE WEST AND RESTRICTED TO THE EAST DUE TO EASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06.  THE GENERAL MOTION IS WESTERLY\r\nWITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND DIRECTION.  AS\r\nCONVECTION INCREASES AND THE CIRCULATION BECOMES DEEPER...THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED INCREASES...AND VICE VERSA.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS OLIVIA BEGINS TO THE ROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK...\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE GFDN WHICH TAKES OLIVIA TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nNORTHEAST...AND THE DEEP BAMD MODEL WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY\r\nDUE WEST.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREASONING.  THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL INTENSITY\r\nFLUCTUATIONS WITH STRENGTHENING AT NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE\r\nDAY AS THE CONVECTION PULSES.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND\r\nSHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AS THE HIGH-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 15.7N 110.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 15.9N 111.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 112.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 17.1N 114.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 21.0N 119.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 07 2000\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...ONLY TO\r\nWEAKEN A FEW HOURS LATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB INDICATED 55 KT AT 06Z.  HOWEVER..A QUICKSCAT PASS AT ABOUT\r\n130 UTC INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF ONLY ABOUT 30 TO 35\r\nKNOTS...WHICH IS NEAR AIR FORCE GLOBALS ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS.  OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS FAIR TO POOR TO THE WEST AND RESTRICTED TO THE EAST DUE TO\r\nEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 285/06.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS CLUSTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN\r\nWHICH TAKES OLIVIA TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHEAST...AND THE\r\nDEEP BAMD MODEL WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY DUE WEST.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREASONING.  THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL INTENSITY\r\nFLUCTUATIONS WITH STRENGTHENING AT NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE\r\nDAY AS THE CONVECTION PULSES.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND\r\nSHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AS THE HIGH-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.  THE 72 HOUR WIND\r\nSPEED DECREASE IS A RESULT OF THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 16.0N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.9N 113.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 17.8N 115.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 22.1N 119.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":21,"Date":"2000-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 07 2000\r\n\r\nOLIVIA IS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.  CONVECTION KEEPS\r\nREDEVELOPING AND THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY STRONG\r\nCLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THAT THE WIND SHEAR HAS\r\nRELAXED. IN FACT...THE COULD PATTERN IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAT 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 50 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR\r\nBEFORE OLIVIA BEGINS TO APPROACH COOLER WATERS IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nOLIVIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NEW TROUGH APPROACHES FROM\r\nTHE PACIFIC.  OLIVIA MAY THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 17.1N 112.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 118.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":22,"Date":"2000-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 07 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE\r\nGFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET INDICATING RECURVATURE.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS SHOWN IN THE 12 AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FIELDS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT NOT QUITE AS FAR AS THE MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE.\r\n \r\nA VERY COLD CDO FEATURE FORMED OVER THE STORM TODAY BUT THE CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO WARM AGAIN.  THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AND FORECAST TO 60 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS.  A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS AS COOLER WATERS MAY BE\r\nENCOUNTERED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 16.8N 112.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.1N 113.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.9N 114.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.9N 116.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":23,"Date":"2000-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 07 2000\r\n \r\nOLIVIA IS UNDERGOING STRONG SHEAR FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...AND\r\nTHE CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE IN VISIBLE AND\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY AND MOSTLY EXPOSED IN SSMI AND TRMM MICROWAVE DATA.\r\nTHE EARLIER CCC...CENTRAL COLD COVER PATTERN... HAS DISSIPATED...\r\nALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE. \r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB GAVE A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\n55 KT AT 00Z...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 50 KT\r\nBASED ON THE RAGGED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN MICROWAVE DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS\r\nRELOCATED FURTHER NORTH DUE TO THE VERTICAL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGENERAL NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND SPEED HAS NOT CHANGED.  ALMOST ALL\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW AGREE ON OLIVIA GRADUALLY RECURVING TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY 48 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT CURRENTLY LIES ALONG 22N LATITUDE.  THE\r\nRECURVATURE SCENARIO APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE APPROACHING MID-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH ALONG 125W LONGITUDE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND CLOSE TO THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GUNS MODELS.\r\n\r\nLOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING INTO THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT OF OLIVIA.  THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER AIR \r\nAND EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM EVEN MORE. \r\nHOWEVER...OLIVIA HAS HAD A HISTORY OF MAKING A STRONG COMEBACK AT\r\nNIGHT AND SSTS ARE STILL AROUND 28 CELSIUS.  THEREFORE...ONLY \r\nMINOR WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH SLIGHT \r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION AFTERWARDS SINCE OLIVIA WILL BE UNDER THE MEAN\r\n200 MB RIDGE AXIS...WHICH SHOULD LESSEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR.  BUT BY\r\n72 HOURS...THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN...EXCEPT FROM THE WEST AS\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 17.7N 112.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 18.4N 113.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 114.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 20.7N 115.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N 116.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N 114.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":24,"Date":"2000-10-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 08 2000\r\n \r\nA TRMM OVERPASS AT 0221Z...COURTESY OF THE NRL WEB PAGE...SHOWS THAT\r\nOLIVIA REMAINS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED STATE.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nVIGOROUS...BUT IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  SATELLITE DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nGIVE 65 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY.  EVEN THE T NUMBER INTENSITIES...55\r\nAND 45 KT...ARE OVERLY GENEROUS IF THE TRMM POSITION IS CORRECT. \r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT AND IS PROBABLY HIGH.  A\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS CAUGHT THE EAST SIDE AND SHOWED NOTHING ABOVE\r\nABOUT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BREAK\r\nIN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE JUST AHEAD OF OLIVIA...AND WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A SLOW-MOVING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH\r\nNEAR 28N124W.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD TURN OLIVIA TO THE NORTH IN 24-\r\n36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A MAJOR TROUGH IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE AVN\r\nAND UKMET TO DIG DOWN AND ACCELERATE OLIVIA NORTHEASTWARD.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF\r\nACCELERATION IS IN QUESTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND\r\nGFDL.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nOLIVIA TO STRENGTHEN IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES UNDER THE 200\r\nMB RIDGE AXIS WHEN THERE SHOULD BE A REDUCTION IN THE STRONG\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THEN OLIVIA COULD HOLD TOGETHER\r\nAS A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT REACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 18.3N 113.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 19.2N 114.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.4N 115.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 21.7N 116.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 27.5N 112.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":25,"Date":"2000-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 08 2000\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER IS ABOUT 45 NMI LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OTHERWISE THE BASIC TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RECURVATURE\r\nACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THIS IS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND CUTTING OFF\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE PERSISTS BUT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45\r\nKNOTS UNTIL THE CENTER IS FORECAST INLAND IN 72 HOURS.  THIS IS A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH SHOWS\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING TO 30 KNOTS\r\nBY THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 18.3N 114.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.2N 115.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.9N 116.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.1N 116.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N 115.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 29.5N 111.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":26,"Date":"2000-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  AS BEFORE...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING A\r\nRECURVATURE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. \r\nTHIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nCUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THE FOREWARD SPEED WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nFORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER AND HAS ALSO DIMINIMISHED CONSIDERABLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS.  BUT\r\nTHE SATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTS A RATHER WEAK LOOKING STORM...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS...GFDL AND UKMET MODELS\r\nALL FORECAST WEAKENING AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES NEAR 25 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAGREES WITH THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 19.0N 115.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 116.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.7N 117.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.7N 116.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 25.2N 114.3W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":27,"Date":"2000-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2000\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING.  THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...AND THIS MAY BE ONLY HIGH CLOUD\r\nDEBRIS...HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO ASSIGN A DATA T-NUMBER BY THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE...BUT CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS\r\nUSING THE DVORAK RULES.  IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...OLIVIA\r\nWILL DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS OR SOONER.  THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES\r\nTHE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS.  NONETHELESS WE HAVE SEEN THIS SYSTEM MAKE A\r\nCOMEBACK A COUPLE OF TIMES BEFORE...AND TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...I WILL SHOW OLIVIA HANGING ON FOR A\r\nWHILE LONGER.\r\n\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME REASONING.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE WESTERN U.S.\r\nSOUTHWARD TO JUST WEST OF BAJA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THIS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...OLIVIA MAY NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CARRY OUT SUCH A TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 19.3N 116.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.3N 117.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 29.0N 110.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":28,"Date":"2000-10-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2000\r\n \r\nOLIVIA SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE REMAINS OF EARLIER\r\nCONVECTION MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/7.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. AND NORTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA TO RECURVE...ALTHOUGH THIS IS\r\nNOT YET UNDERWAY.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT CLIPER AGREES WITH\r\nRECURVATURE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.\r\n \r\nOLIVIA IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO COOLER WATER...AND THERE IS STILL\r\nEVIDENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS WESTERLY SHEAR AWAITING THE DEPRESSION AS IT RECURVES.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING...WITH OLIVIA LIKELY TO\r\nDISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT CAN MOVE INTO BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO\r\nDISSIPATE AFTER 48 HR IN DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nGFDL MODEL.  IF THERE ARE NO MORE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...OLIVIA MAY DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AS\r\nPER THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 19.6N 116.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.4N 117.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.1N 117.8W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N 116.7W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N 114.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":29,"Date":"2000-10-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2000\r\n \r\nOLIVIA IS DEVOID OF AN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH A FEW WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE REDEVELOPED\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND KGWC YIELD 30 KT WITH 25 KT COMING\r\nIN FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9.  ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON GRADUAL\r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR\r\nCLIPER WHICH KEEPS OLIVIA TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSTRONG SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SHOULD PREVENT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW DEEP WILL\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF OLIVIA BE IN 24 HOURS.  THE DEEP LAYER\r\nSTEERING FLOW SUGGESTS RECURVATURE...BUT A SHALLOW SYSTEM WOULD MOST\r\nLIKELY TAKE A SLOWER NORTHWEST TRACK...STALL...AND THEN DISSIPATE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND RECURVES\r\nOLIVIA TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MIDDLE OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS DECREASING AS OLIVIA MOVES POLEWARD BENEATH A 200 MB RIDGE\r\nAXIS.  THIS PATTERN WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...EXCEPT\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL WATER WITH SSTS BELOW 26C. \r\nTHERE ARE ALSO COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO\r\nTHE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nSTILL ENOUGH WARM UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH THAT COULD\r\nPROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR ONE FINAL BURST OF CONVECTION TONIGHT\r\nDURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.  FOR THAT REASON...I\r\nAM A LITTLE HESITANT TO DISSIPATE OLIVIA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP TONIGHT...THEN THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL LIKELY SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW...IF NOT SOONER. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES OLIVIA BY 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nNOTE...12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED TO THE MARINE/FORECAST ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON A 14 FT REPORT AT 09/12Z FROM SHIP VRVS5 TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 20.3N 117.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.2N 118.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.7N 118.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.6N 116.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 26.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":30,"Date":"2000-10-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2000\r\n \r\nSOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN A LONG\r\nCURVED BAND ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  OTHER SMALL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE\r\nALSO FILLED IN AROUND THE REST OF THE CIRCULATION...SO I HAVE OPTED\r\nTO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT IN CASE THE CONVECTION DECIDES TO\r\nCOME BACK LATER THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLIVIA HAS\r\nDECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE LACK OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL CIRCULATION.  AS\r\nMENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH\r\nPRESSURE TO THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD IMPEDE ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE KEY TO THE FORECAST REMAINS\r\nWHETHER OR NOT OLIVIA DEVELOPS ANY MORE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTHEAST BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE EARLIER\r\nRECURVATURE SCENARIO...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP IN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS...THEN OLIVIA WILL TAKE SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK AND\r\nQUICKLY DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING. \r\nOLIVIA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP NEW CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THE\r\nPAST 4 TO 6 HOURS.  IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...THEN OLIVIA COULD\r\nREMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND\r\nPOSSIBLY BEYOND THAT.  HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT MODERATE CONVECTION\r\nWEAKENS...THEN OLIVIA WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nNOTE...12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 20.6N 118.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.6N 118.4W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 23.3N 117.8W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 24.9N 116.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 26.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":31,"Date":"2000-10-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2000\r\n\r\nAN EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF THE CYCLONE HAS SUBSIDED.  AT THE MOMENT OLIVIA IS VOID OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME REGENERATION DURING THE\r\nTYPICAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD LATER TONIGHT.  AT 00Z...THE SYSTEM\r\nWAS STILL CLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE AND CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 25 KNOTS.  VERTICAL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED...BUT NOW OLIVIA\r\nIS MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE.  BARRING A MAJOR COMEBACK...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE\r\nDECLARED DISSIPATED IN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.\r\n\r\nA SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...315/06.  THE DISSIPATING\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 21.0N 118.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 21.8N 118.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N 118.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.5N 118.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":32,"Date":"2000-10-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2000\r\n \r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ONE BRIEF BURST NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...OLIVIA HAS BEEN WITHOUT CONVECTION FOR 24 HOURS. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM AFWA AND TOO WEAK TO\r\nCLASSIFY FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE SYSTEM WILL BE DECLARED\r\nDISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A REMNANT LOW CLOUD SWIRL MAY\r\nPERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON OLIVIA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 21.2N 119.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-10-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2000\r\n \r\nIN HINDSIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nMANZANILLO WAS PROBABLY A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.  THIS MORNING A\r\nTIGHT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL EMERGED AND HAS BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nSEPARATING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION EVER SINCE.  THE CIRCULATION\r\nDOES HAVE AMPLE BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION...ENOUGH TO QUALIFY AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT WINDS THEN WERE IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE.  NOW...WITH THE EXPOSED\r\nCENTER...THE WINDS HAVE PRESUMABLY COME DOWN A BIT.   SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT WILL CHANGE\r\nORIENTATION FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY.  AFTER THAT...THERE MAY BE\r\nAN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS PROVIDING A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING\r\nFLOW.  UPSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE IS A LARGE CUTOFF LOW NEAR 40N127W. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AMPLIFICATION OF A TROUGH OUT OF THIS\r\nCUTOFF THAT WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND COULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL\r\nBE HOW LONG THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE AND FOLLOWS A\r\nSHALLOWER LAYER FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE NOGAPS\r\nSOLUTION...WHICH KEEPS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE AVN...AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY TAKES THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 10.4N 112.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 10.6N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 10.8N 115.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 11.0N 117.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 11.5N 119.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 13.0N 122.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-10-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E CONTINUES AS A TIGHTLY WOUND LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER WITH NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS DISPLACING THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE\r\nDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER...BUT ARE HAVING TROUBLE PERSISTING.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/14.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST...WITH A RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN THAT FEATURE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THE TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY\r\n48 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  AFTER 48 HR...THE TROUGH WILL STOP DIGGING AND MOVE\r\nFARTHER AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE WEAK RIDGE IN BETWEEN\r\nMOVING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING\r\nFOR A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND DECELERATION TO 7 KT BY 36\r\nHR.  THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHERLY AVN AND BAM\r\nMODELS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY NOGAPS AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION DO NOT\r\nFAVOR STRENGTHENING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDECREASE SOME BY 24 TO 36 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nIF THE CYCLONE REDEVELOPS CENTRAL CONVECTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT IT CAN...AND WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HR.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 10.7N 113.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 10.8N 115.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 11.1N 117.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 11.5N 118.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 12.0N 120.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 13.5N 122.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-10-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2000\r\n\r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING NEAR AND OVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nOR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0\r\nSO THE MAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KNOTS.  SINCE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY\r\nTO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTODAY.  IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHEAR MAY RELAX JUST A LITTLE...SO SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF WEST BUT NOW APPEARS TO\r\nBE MOVING ESSENTIALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED THAN\r\nBEFORE.  A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA\r\nCOAST HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 30N LATITUDE.  THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL FORECASTS THIS TROUGH TO DIG FARTHER\r\nSOUTH...TO NEAR 20N...AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BYPASS THE\r\nCYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH FURTHER SLOWING OF FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...BUT\r\nGENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AVN MODEL-BASED TRACK PREDICTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 10.4N 114.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 10.7N 116.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 11.3N 117.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 12.0N 119.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 12.8N 120.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 14.0N 122.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-10-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2000\r\n \r\nA TRMM OVERPASS AT 08Z PLACED THE CIRCULATION CENTER VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT\r\nAND COLD OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND ALLOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  IF PAUL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD\r\nAVOID AN INCREASE IN SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WAS STILL A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nWEST...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD\r\nTHAT IS DIGGING SOUTH OF 30N LATITUDE.  THE AVN FORECASTS THIS\r\nTROUGH TO DIG FARTHER SOUTH...TO NEAR 20N...AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH FURTHER\r\nSLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.  THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE STILL HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...HAS PERSUADED ME TO\r\nSTAY A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS STILL WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS...WHICH ARE OFTEN GOOD PERFORMERS IN THE EAST PACIFIC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 10.3N 115.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 10.4N 116.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 10.9N 118.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 11.6N 119.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N 121.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 13.5N 123.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-10-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2000\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN RUNNING JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nAHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN WANING A LITTLE AS THE\r\nDIURNAL MINIMUM IS APPROACHED.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 18Z\r\nWERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD\r\nAT 35 KT DUE TO THE RATHER RATTY APPEARANCE SINCE THEN.  KGWC CAME\r\nIN WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM MAY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND ALLOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  IF PAUL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD\r\nAVOID AN INCREASE IN SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO SIGN OF A\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING\r\nFOR 24 HOURS.  GIVEN THE CURRENTLY NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE\r\nSURROUNDING LOW LEVEL FLOW...IT IS HARD TO GO WITH THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 10.2N 117.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 10.3N 119.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 10.8N 120.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 11.3N 121.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 12.0N 123.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-10-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2000\r\n \r\nMOST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45\r\nKT...BUT WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL\r\nREMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nIS A MORE CONSERVATIVE 275/12...BUT THE LONG-AWAITED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION MAY BE STARTING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nCENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 23N...WITH\r\nRIDGING BETWEEN IT AND PAUL.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS\r\nTROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE FOR 24 TO 48 HR...WHICH WOULD SLOW\r\nPAUL AND ALLOW IT TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST.  AFTER 48 HR...THE TROUGH\r\nMOVES EASTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AND PAUL TO\r\nTURN MORE WESTWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO THAN 6 HR AGO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE THE LBAR\r\n(NORTHWEST) AND THE AIR FORCE MM5 (WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST).\r\n\r\nPAUL HAD LITTLE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nSIGNIFICANT FLARE-UP NEAR THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  IT IS LIKELY A\r\nSIMILAR FLARE-UP WILL OCCUR IN 6 TO 12 HR.  THE AVN AND UKMET\r\nFORECAST DECREASING SHEAR OVER PAUL.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THOSE MODELS UNDERESTIMATE THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nWEST OF THE STORM.  THE NOGAPS INITIALIZATION LOOKS BETTER...AND IT\r\nFORECASTS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BASED ON THAT...LESS\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS\r\nA CHANCE THAT THE WESTERLIES COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN OR\r\nDISSIPATE THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 10.6N 118.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 10.9N 119.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 11.3N 120.8W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 11.8N 122.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 12.5N 123.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-10-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY.  THE 00Z AVIATION\r\nMODEL SHOWS A WEAK EAST/WEST RIDGE HOLDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM\r\nAND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS SIX HOURS AGO...SHOWING\r\nA CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED\r\nEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEP\r\nTHE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0128Z SHOWED ALL\r\nWINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS...INCLUDING THE RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDS EAST\r\nAND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER THE CONVECTION WAS AT A MINIMUM AT\r\nTHAT TIME AND HAS SINCE SIGNIFICANTLY REDEVELOPED.  SO PAUL IS KEPT\r\nA MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOT WINDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nDIAGNOSIS OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS AT 19 KNOTS AND INCREASES TO\r\n31 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  BUT DUE TO WARM SSTS...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINCREASES THE WINDS A LITTLE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 11.2N 119.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 11.6N 120.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.2N 122.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.6N 124.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.1N 125.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.8N 128.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-10-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL HAS REDEVELOPED CONVECTION NEAR THE SYSTEM\r\nCENTER...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO\r\nTHE EAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  PAUL HAS MADE A SLIGHT\r\nPOLEWARD JOG...BUT A GENERAL TURN BACK MORE TOWARD A 285 DEGREES\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD\r\nBACK IN TO THE NORTH OF PAUL AND HELP TO TURN THE SYSTEM MORE\r\nWESTWARD IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...WITH PAUL MOVING INTO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nSIMILAR TO ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...ONLY FARTHER TO THE\r\nRIGHT OR MORE POLEWARD.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nDIFFLUENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY AIDED THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE AMOUNT AND DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION WITH\r\nWEAKENING GENERALLY OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND REDEVELOPMENT AT\r\nNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS WITH ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AFTERWARDS WHEN THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 11.7N 119.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 12.1N 121.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 12.6N 122.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 12.9N 124.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.3N 126.3W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 13.8N 129.1W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-10-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL HAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nAND REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 27/1411Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WHEN THE CONVECTION WAS WEAKER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  PAUL MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE\r\nTHE TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  A SHEAR LINE/COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD BUILDING\r\nSURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BUILDING \r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHG AND KEEP PAUL MOVING ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW CLOSELY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET...GUNS...\r\nAND DEEP BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS DIFFLUENT...WHICH IS\r\nPROBABLY THE ONLY THING KEEPING PAUL ALIVE...BTU THE SHEAR PATTERN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PAUL COULD EASILY\r\nWEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OR LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING\r\nBASED ON CONTINUITY...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...AND THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW PATTERN THAT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE\r\nDAY.  THE LATTER FEATURE MAY INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD\r\nDESPITE THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 12.0N 121.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 12.7N 124.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.2N 126.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 13.5N 128.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 14.0N 132.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-10-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000\r\n \r\nPAUL REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND A LARGER...BUT DISSIPATING...CONVECTIVE MASS FURTHER\r\nEAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nAND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  PAUL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AT LEAST\r\nONE MORE ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A TURN TO THE LEFT.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 275/13...BUT THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS\r\nCLOSER TO 270 AND FASTER.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT PAUL AND THE DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST\r\nHAVE BY-PASSED EACH OTHER...AND THAT LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF PAUL IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.  THIS\r\nSHOULD MOVE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION\r\nBEING WILL THE MOTION BE CLOSER TO 270 OR 285.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH A 275\r\nMOTION EARLY AND A 285 MOTION LATE.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE NOGAPS...AVN...AND GFDN.\r\n\r\nPAUL REMAINS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHEAR DATA FROM\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING 15-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nTHIS IS UNLIKELY TO LET UP FOR AT LEAST 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL THUS WEAKEN PAUL TO A DEPRESSION AFTER THE NEXT\r\nDIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\nDECREASING WESTERLIES AFTER 24-36 HR...AND IN VIEW OF THIS THE\r\nFORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AFTER 36 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...THESE UPPER WINDS FORECASTS HAVE NOT VERIFIED POORLY FOR\r\nTHE PAST TWO DAYS...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERLIES\r\nWILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE PAUL BEFORE 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 11.7N 123.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 11.9N 125.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 12.0N 127.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 12.3N 130.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 13.5N 137.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-10-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 28 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS\r\nA RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH 72 HOURS AND\r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE EXCEPT LBAR SHOWS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION CONTINUING.  LBAR HAS INEXPLICABLY BEEN FAR TO RIGHT OF THE\r\nOTHER MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO AND AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS PEAKED\r\nAND WEAKENED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.  PAUL IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS\r\nBASIS.  FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  WITH STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nCONTINUING TO IMPINGE ON PAUL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF\r\nDISSIPATION OCCURRED WELL BEFORE 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 11.7N 124.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 11.7N 126.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 11.8N 129.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 12.2N 132.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 13.8N 138.5W    30 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-10-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 28 2000\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC\r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW IS VERY DIFFLUENT...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS POOR OWING TO \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.  MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA WAS\r\nUNAVAILABLE FOR POSITIONING.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING AND MAY POSSIBLY BE ELONGATED EAST-WEST.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13 AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE AND\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SO PAUL SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION AS A STRAIGHT-\r\nRUNNER.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECASTS AND THE LATEST TIGHTLY-PACKED MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. \r\nNOTE...THE CENTER POSITION MAY HAVE TO BE RELOCATED ONCE VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.\r\n\r\nPAUL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AT LEAST A MODERATE SHEAR PATTERN FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nTURN THE 200 MB WINDS AROUND TO A NORTHEAST OR EASTERLY DIRECTION...\r\nWHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF PAUL REMAINS\r\nSOUTH OF 15N LATITUDE.  IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET RETAINS SOME WEAK\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS PAUL AT MINIMUM DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.  SOME\r\nSLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP AND THEN WEAKEN. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR SHARPLY DECREASES LIKE THE AVN AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN PAUL WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL ARE INDICATING.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 11.9N 125.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 12.0N 127.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 12.3N 129.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 12.6N 132.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 13.0N 134.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 14.0N 139.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-10-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 28 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND BARELY A\r\nDEPRESSION.  CONVECTION REMAINS SHEARED TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF BARELY 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BROAD AND ELONGATED EAST-WEST WHICH\r\nMAKES POSITIONING DIFFICULT.  THERE MAY BE SMALLER CIRCULATIONS\r\nWITHIN THE LARGER ENVELOPE...AND THE OFFICIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY\r\nTHE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE LARGER SWIRL OF CLOUDS.  PAUL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nMAY TRACK MORE WESTWARD THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING. \r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nPAUL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE SHEAR PATTERN FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS  FORECAST\r\nTHE 200 MB WINDS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY IF\r\nPAUL REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF 15N LATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS PAUL AT MINIMUM DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD...\r\nBUT THE SYSTEM COULD JUST AS EASILY WEAKEN BELOW DEPRESSION STRENGTH\r\nDUE TO THE SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 11.9N 126.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 12.0N 128.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 12.1N 130.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 12.4N 132.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 12.7N 134.8W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 13.5N 140.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-10-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 28 2000\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF PAUL HAS BECOME VERY\r\nPOORLY DEFINED.  WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE UP NEAR AND\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...THE CIRCULATION IS BARELY PERTURBING THE ITCZ\r\nLOCATED JUST TO ITS SOUTH.  THE SYSTEM WILL THUS BE DECLARED\r\nDISSIPATED.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION OR VORTICITY CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD UNDER STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS SOME\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT IF THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE.  THE EARLIEST THAT MIGHT HAPPEN IS 36 TO 48 HR.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PAUL FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF\r\nREGENERATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 11.8N 128.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Test","Adv":1,"Date":"2000-11-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEST DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST FRI NOV 03 2000\r\n \r\nA WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN VISIBLE\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO THE CENTER TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS QUITE RAGGED HOWEVER AND IT MAY\r\nTAKE A WHILE...IF EVER...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OCCURS. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL WITH ITS POSITIVE BIAS GOES TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE\r\nIN 72 HOURS WHILE THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nTO 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE WITH THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07.  THERE IS A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN\r\nWEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A CONTINUATION\r\nOF THE CURRENT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 10.5N  90.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 10.8N  91.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 11.3N  92.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 11.8N  93.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 12.3N  94.8W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 13.2N  97.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2000-11-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST FRI NOV 03 2000\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FIRED OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHIP WMBK...WHICH WAS EAST\r\nOF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB AND\r\nWINDS OF 18 KT AT 00Z.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK NUMBERS STILL GIVE 25\r\nKT...THE PRESSURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT HIGHER WINDS ARE PROBABLY\r\nPRESENT IN THE CONVECTION AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KT.  AN\r\nSSMI OVERPASS SHOWED GOOD ORGANIZATION IN THE LOW CLOUD BANDS AND\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS NOT BAD.  THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE LESS\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM THAN THERE WAS 24 HOURS AGO.\r\n\r\nLAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 290/10.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...A\r\nLARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO 10N.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO BE REINFORCED AND ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE...A SCENARIO\r\nWHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY SLOW AND TURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR NORTH BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MORE\r\nCURVATURE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MEDIUM\r\nBAM AND THE STATISTICAL P91E.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS COME A LONG WAY SINCE YESTERDAY BUT HAS NOT YET BEEN\r\nABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR VERY LONG.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nPARAMETERS ARE ALL FAVORABLE AND THE MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO\r\n74 KT IN 72 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE\r\nSYSTEM IN 30 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EQUALLY EQUIVOCAL...WITH\r\nTHE AVN STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM AND THE UKMET DISSING IT.  GIVEN\r\nTHE KNOWN BIASES IN SHIPS AND THE AVN...ONLY LIMITED STRENGTHENING\r\nIS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIP WMBK ALSO REPORTED 12 FOOT SEAS AND THIS INFORMATION HAS\r\nBEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 10.8N  91.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 11.1N  92.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 11.5N  94.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 11.9N  96.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 12.5N  97.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 14.0N  99.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2000-11-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST SAT NOV 04 2000\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM GLOBAL...MIAMI...AND\r\nWASHINGTON ARE ALL GIVING 25 KNOTS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST\r\nQUICKSCAT DATA.  HOWEVER...A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER\r\nWIND SPEED NEAR THE SURFACE IN THIS AREA.  THUS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH SHIPS WANTS TO STRENGTHEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM BECAUSE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS... THE\r\nOUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE ILL DEFINED THAN 12 HOURS AGO. \r\nTHEREFORE...A SLOW INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST CENTER FIXES ESTIMATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nFROM GLOBAL...MIAMI AND WASHINGTON SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 275/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nEXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO 10N.  THIS TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REINFORCED AND ESSENTIALLY\r\nREMAIN IN PLACE...A SCENARIO WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY SLOW AND TURN\r\nTHE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH BY 72 HOURS.  BOTH THE AVN\r\nAND GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE EARLY\r\nFORECAST PERIODS BUT TURN THE SYSTEM ALMOST DUE NORTH IN THE LATER\r\nPERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND A LITTLE\r\nFASTER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT\r\nSLOWS DOWN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nBAMD FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 10.8N  92.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 10.9N  93.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 11.2N  95.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 11.7N  97.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 12.6N  99.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2000-11-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST SAT NOV 04 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME IMAGERY AND THE\r\nFIRST VISIBLE PICTURES DO NOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. \r\nA RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS IS AMBIGUOUS.  IT MAY BE THAT THERE IS NO\r\nLONGER A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE LAST DECENT LOCATION WAS FROM\r\nA 0209Z TRMM PASS WHICH SUPPORTED A 275/10 MOTION FROM THE LAST\r\nDAYLIGHT FIXES.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER ONE IN 72 HOURS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWISH FORWARD SPEED AND INCREASING NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE VARIES FROM DUE WEST TO A TURN\r\nTOWARD DUE NORTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE AND\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OR FORECAST INTENSITY. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AGGRESIVELY GOES TO 74 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS BUT THE\r\nUKMET FORECASTS DISSIPATION BY THEN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 10.8N  93.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 10.9N  94.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 11.0N  96.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 11.4N  97.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 12.0N  98.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 14.0N 100.0W    45 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2000-11-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST SAT NOV 04 2000\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY IS CONFUSING.  AN IMPRESSIVE SMALL CDO AND BANDING\r\nFEATURE HAS RECENTLY FORMED BUT IT APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER.  UNLESS THERE IS MORE THAN ONE CENTER...WHICH IS A\r\nPOSSIBLITY SUGGESTED BY QUIKSCAT WIND FIELDS.  TRACKING WHAT APPEARS\r\nTO BE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 265/11. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT OTHERWISE RETAINS A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY OF SLOWING DOWN\r\nAND TURNING NORTHWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE...RANGING FROM\r\nDUE WEST TO NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ASSUMES THAT THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nSCENARIO IS CORRECT...WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BEING\r\nREPLACED AND CAUSING A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND NORTHWARD TURN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  SSTS ARE HIGH AND\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS NIL.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS RIDDLED WITH\r\nUNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN CLOUD PATTERN\r\nBECOMES DOMINANT.  IF IT DOES...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE DISSIPATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nCALLING FOR SLOW STRENGTHING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 10.3N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 10.2N  96.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 10.3N  98.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 11.0N  99.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 12.0N 100.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2000-11-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST SAT NOV 04 2000\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING\r\nTHE PAST 06 HOURS AND IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...30 KT FROM\r\nKGWC...AND 25 KT FROM SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS\r\nHELD DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO ONLY INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OCCURRING\r\nNEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WEST\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED TO THE EAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08.  THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nDIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY UNTIL THE PAST 03 HOURS.\r\nNOW THAT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING CLOSER TO THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE DEEP\r\nLAYER MEAN FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n05/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TOWARD A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY ALONG 115W LONGITUDE.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A\r\nCONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AFTERWARDS.  GIVEN THE\r\nHIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH...RECURVATURE IS A\r\nVERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET...GFDN...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND SIMILAR TO THE GFDN MODEL AND SLOWER THAN THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT\r\nAND STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT...BY 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE APPROACHING\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW...WHICH IS\r\nALSO FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 64 KT IN 48\r\nHOURS AND 74 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 10.4N  95.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 10.5N  96.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 10.8N  98.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  99.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 12.6N 100.3W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N 100.0W    55 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2000-11-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST SUN NOV 05 2000\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND STILL\r\nIS...BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN SOME\r\nDECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT IMPROVED.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS NOT BEING\r\nUPGRADED AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE OCEAN\r\nIS WARM...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM LATER TODAY.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS\r\nFAR...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS\r\nAN INITIAL IMPULSE IS KICKED OUT AND A STRONGER VORTICITY MAXIMUM\r\nDROPS IN FROM CALIFORNIA.  IN SPITE OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH\r\nAS PREDICTED BY THE AVN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODELS...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE ON RECURVATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nAVN AND ASSOCIATED BAM GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOSTLY ON A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHEREAS THE U.K. MET AND NOGAPS TURN THE\r\nSYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BUT MOVE IT QUITE SLOWLY AS WELL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 10.5N  96.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 10.6N  97.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 11.0N  99.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 11.5N  99.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 12.5N 100.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":8,"Date":"2000-11-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST SUN NOV 05 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  A CUT-OFF LOW OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL RUN TO MOVE OUT AND BE REPLACED\r\nBY ANOTHER IN 72 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nCAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...UKMET...\r\nNOGAPS AND LBAR MODELS.  THE AVN...BAM AND STATISTICAL TRACK MODELS\r\nHOWEVER SHOW A SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE RECURVING\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/3.0/2.5 FROM SAB/TAFB/KGWC WITH A\r\nRAGGED CDO FEATURE AND MINIMAL BANDING. IN CONTRAST...A 1203Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN EAST/WEST ELONGATED LOW AND ALL\r\nUNCONTAMINATED WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS.  THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY DOES\r\nNOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED CENTER ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE HIDDEN UNDER THE\r\nCDO.  I AM RELUCTANTLY UPGRADING TO A 35 KNOT STORM AS A COURSE OF\r\nLEAST REGRET.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 72 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS BASED\r\nMAINLY ON LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  BUT THE GFDL MODEL\r\nDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS AND THE UKMET GOES FOR SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING.  THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE SLOW STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 10.9N  97.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 11.1N  98.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  99.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 12.5N 100.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 13.6N 100.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 100.0W    50 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":9,"Date":"2000-11-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST SUN NOV 05 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  A TROUGH OVER\r\nNORTHWEST MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY THE 12Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL RUN TO MOVE OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A CUT-OFF LOW BY\r\n72 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND CAUSE A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AS INDICATED BY THE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS.  ONLY THE NOGAPS AND LBAR MODELS SHOW ANY ACCELERATION OF\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  \r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY CALLING FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 50 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS\r\nTHE WIND SPEED TO 76 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THE UKMET\r\nMODEL FORECASTS SLIGHT WEAKENING...AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS 49\r\nKNOTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 11.2N  98.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 11.5N  99.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 12.7N 100.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 13.9N 100.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 14.8N 100.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N  99.5W    50 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":10,"Date":"2000-11-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST SUN NOV 05 2000\r\n \r\nROSA HAD ITS BEST APPEARANCE RIGHT AROUND 00Z...WHEN THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  AT THAT TIME SOME BANDING HAD DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER BUT THIS FEATURE HAS SINCE WEAKENED.  IN THE\r\nMEANTIME...A NEW BURST IS GOING OFF VERY NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nOVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION HAS SLOWED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8...A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nTHE SPEED HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 6 KT.  WITH THE TRACK CONTINUING TO EDGE\r\nTO THE RIGHT...THIS COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE ANTICIPATED\r\nNORTHWARD TURN IN ADVANCE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AHEAD OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...WITH THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS SHOWING A HARD RIGHT\r\nTURN TOWARDS THE COAST...AND THE AVN AND BAMS SHOWING A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nOUTFLOW APPEARS DECENT AND THE SHEAR IS LOW.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN NO BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECASTS 75 KT IN 72 HOURS...BUT THE GFDL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM\r\nSHARPLY AFTER 30 HOURS.  WITH THE SSTS IN THE PATH OF ROSA BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY WARM...THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD BE INCREASING\r\nSHEAR FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO\r\nBE IMPORTANT FOR ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OR MORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF\r\nAND LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.  I DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AN INNER CORE...AND IF THIS OCCURS\r\nTHEN A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.  THIS\r\nCOULD THEN MITIGATE AGAINST THE ANTICIPATED SHEAR INCREASE LATER. \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ROSA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 11.5N  99.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 12.0N  99.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 13.1N 100.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 14.3N 100.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 15.5N  99.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  98.5W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":11,"Date":"2000-11-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST MON NOV 06 2000\r\n\r\nWHEREAS THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS\r\nAGO...THE EARLIER DEVELOPMENT TREND SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELLED OFF.  THE\r\nINNER CORE DOES NOT YET APPEAR TO BE WELL DEFINED.  INITIAL WINDS\r\nARE SET AT 55 KNOTS IN CONCURRENCE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE...\r\nROSA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.  INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND/OR THE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD CURTAIL STRENGTHENING LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD...BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN...THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL SHOWS WEAKENING COMMENCING WITHIN 24 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH IT\r\nPREDICTS THE CENTER TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS.  \r\n\r\nCENTER POSITIONS USING INFRARED IMAGERY ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT\r\nEARLIER TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 325/6.  ROSA APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING THE FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN\r\nU.S. SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL\r\nVORTICITY ENTERING THE TROUGH...FORMING A  CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE NEW\r\nMEXICO/OLD MEXICO BORDER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  ROSA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS STEERING\r\nREGIME.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE MODEL RUN.  THE LATEST AVN RUN ALSO SHOWS THE STORM TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...BUT GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE STEERING\r\nPATTERN...IT SEEMS TO MOVE ROSA TOO SLOWLY.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF ROSA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION\r\nOF THE COAST LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 12.3N  99.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 13.0N  99.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 14.1N  99.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.3N  98.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.5N  98.3W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 19.0N  97.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":12,"Date":"2000-11-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST MON NOV 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/06.  THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS\r\nAND AVIATION MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A SLOW FORWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A HEADING VARYING BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST.\r\nLBAR AND THE DEEP AND BAMS ARE MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORCAST TRACK OPTS FOR THE SLOW\r\nMOSTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 55 KNOTS...EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE CURRENT PATTERN OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 0035Z SHOWED NOTHING HIGHER THAN 40 KNOTS...\r\nCONTAMINATED OR NOT.  SO 55 KNOTS MAY BE TOO HIGH.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nBRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 74 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE UKMET AND\r\nGFDL MODELS FORECAST WEAKENING OR LITTLE CHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBRINGING ROSA TO 65 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS REQUIRES A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 12.8N  98.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 13.5N  99.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.6N  99.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 15.6N  98.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 17.0N  98.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N  96.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":13,"Date":"2000-11-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST MON NOV 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/05.  THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS\r\nAND AVIATION MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A SLOW FORWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A HEADING VARYING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST.\r\nLBAR AND THE DEEP AND BAMS ARE MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORCAST TRACK OPTS FOR THE SLOW\r\nMOSTLY NORTHWARD TURNING NORTHEASTWARD SCENARIO AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55-65 KNOTS. AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 0035Z SHOWED NOTHING HIGHER THAN 40 KNOTS...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  SO THE\r\nCURRENT WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE\r\nWIND SPEED TO 69 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL AND IS SHOWING INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING ROSA.  THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST\r\nWEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING ROSA TO 65 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE\r\nHURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WILL PROBABLY\r\nHAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN SIX HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 13.2N  98.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N  99.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.9N  98.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N  98.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.8N  97.7W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":14,"Date":"2000-11-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST MON NOV 06 2000\r\n \r\nTHERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nBUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 345/4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER AND A TAD TO THE RIGHT.  BOTH THE AVN AND THE UKMET SHOW A\r\nSLOW MOTION TOWARD THE COAST WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...IN\r\nADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD WEST OF ROSA.  THE\r\nGFDL AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A HARD RIGHT TURN...BUT THESE\r\nMODELS HAVE SO FAR BEEN TOO EAGER TO TURN THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IT IS SUFFERING FROM SOME\r\nSHEAR...AS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND IN RECENT HOURS HAS BEEN GRADUALLY EDGING FARTHER AWAY.\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST WEAKENING...AND THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIS LESS ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT STRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  WITH\r\nTHE SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nPULLS BACK A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS ROSA A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nWITH THE RECENT LACK OF MOVEMENT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORECAST TRACK\r\nNO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 13.2N  99.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.8N  99.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 14.7N  98.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 15.5N  98.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N  97.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":15,"Date":"2000-11-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST TUE NOV 07 2000\r\n\r\nIT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER...BUT BEST ESTIMATES GIVE\r\nA SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...360/3.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PROGNOSTIC REASONING.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ROSA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST RUNS OF THE AVN...U.K. MET...AND GFDN MODELS.  THIS BRINGS\r\nTHE CENTER...OR AT LEAST THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...NEAR THE\r\nCOAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS\r\nREQUIRED AT THIS TIME.   \r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIVE OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEARING.  THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO BANDING...AND THE CENTER IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF AN IRREGULARLY-SHAPED\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT...TO 50 KNOTS.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT ALSO INDICATES\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  BECAUSE THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL\r\nTHE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.  \r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ROSA\r\nLATER TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD GIVE US MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ROSA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 13.6N  98.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 14.2N  98.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.9N  98.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N  97.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  97.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N  95.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":16,"Date":"2000-11-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST TUE NOV 07 2000\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH FIRST VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY...A TRMM OVERPASS...AND A RADAR IMAGE FROM PUERTO ANGEL.  TO\r\nFURTHER CONFUSE...A QUIKSCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SHOWED NO CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION.  ASSUMING THERE IS A CLOSED CENTER...THE EVIDENCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT IT IS ABOUT 75 MILES EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK.  SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...I AM SHIFTING THE\r\nTRACK ONLY 50 MILES EASTWARD.  OTHERWISE THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE ABOUT SAME...SLOW FORWARD MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nFOLLOWING THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE AVN IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND THE LBAR IS A LOT FASTER.  THE CHANGE IN TRACK REQUIRES\r\nSHIFTING THE WATCH AND WARNING EASTWARD.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE\r\n...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  ONLY THE UKMET\r\nMODEL SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 31\r\nKNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN 36 HOURS.  BUT RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nCOLD CDO AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTH.  SO I AM\r\nFORECASTING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED TO 60 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nA USAF RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH THE AREA ABOUT\r\n16Z AND SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY MAY BE\r\nRESOLVED AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 14.0N  98.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 14.6N  97.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 15.3N  97.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.2N  96.7W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N  96.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.0N  94.5W    DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":17,"Date":"2000-11-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST TUE NOV 07 2000\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/5 BASED ON A USAF RECON FIX AT\r\n17Z.  THE 12 AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS AN ANTICYLONE ANCHORED OVER\r\nCUBA AND A TROUGH REAMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY MOVING THE STORM VERY SLOWLY UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATI0N IN 42 HOURS WITHOUT REACHING LAND.  THE OTHER MODELS\r\nMOVE THE STORM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT VARYING ACCELERATIONS OF\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MOVES THE CENTER INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS\r\nWITH A 5 KNOT FORWARD MOTION.\r\n \r\nRECON DATA PUTS THE WIND SPEED NEAR 50 KNOTS WITH 1000 MB CENTRAL\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE RECON REPORTED A\r\nCLOSED EYEWALL OF 20 MILE DIAMETER.  THIS IS NOT SEEN ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND IS SOMETHING THAT IS USUALLY THOUGHT TO OCCUR ONLY WITH\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.  A COLD CDO FEATURE DOES PERSIST...BUT SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL MODEL SHOW NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 14.8N  97.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.4N  96.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.2N  96.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  95.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.8N  94.8W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z ...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":18,"Date":"2000-11-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST TUE NOV 07 2000\r\n \r\nIN THE ABSENCE OF RECON THIS EVENING THE CENTER IS HARD TO\r\nLOCATE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT ROSA IS BASICALLY ON TRACK.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/05.  NO MAJOR CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...AND ROSA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF PUERTO ANGEL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS AND THE AREAL\r\nCOVERAGE HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 45 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\nTHEREAFTER...ROUGH TERRAIN SHOULD DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT CAN\r\nEMERGE INTACT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 15.3N  96.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.0N  96.4W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N  95.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.2N  95.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":19,"Date":"2000-11-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST WED NOV 08 2000\r\n\r\nIT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON INFRARED IMAGERY...BUT\r\nBASED ON SSM/I IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA...ROSA APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nMOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  NONETHELESS...THE\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE INLAND...A SHORT DISTANCE NORTHEAST OF PUERTO\r\nANGEL.  MOTION IS ABOUT 040/7.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A NE TO\r\nNNE MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDN AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWITH THE CENTER INLAND...THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING TO DEPRESSION\r\nSTRENGTH AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE LOWERED.  SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO TODAY...IT IS ASSUMED THAT ROSA WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE IT CAN\r\nEMERGE INTACT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 15.8N  96.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 16.6N  95.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 17.7N  94.7W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":20,"Date":"2000-11-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST WED NOV 08 2000\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS WELL INLAND AND IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED.\r\n  \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE MOVING NORTH\r\nNORTHEAST BUT IT CAN STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nEASTERN MEXICO.  THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE OVER THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 16.6N  95.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  95.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Allison","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-06-05 19:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALLISON SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n3 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2001\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO HAS\r\nA BROAD CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AS A RESULT OF THE 40 TO 50\r\nKT SURFACE WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED\r\nDIRECTLY TO THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON JUST OFF\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/11.  TROPICAL STORM ALLISON IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS IS LOCATED EAST-WEST ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHERN U.S. FROM GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA. THE BROAD CENTER SHOULD\r\nMOVE INLAND OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA\r\nLATER TONIGHT AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL EVEN THOUGH\r\nALLISON IS MORE LIKE A HYBRID SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WOULD GET ABOVE 55 KT BEFORE DUE TO THE COOL OFFSHORE\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1900Z 28.3N  94.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 30.1N  94.2W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 31.6N  93.9W    30 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 33.1N  93.2W    25 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 34.4N  92.0W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Allison","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-06-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2001\r\n \r\nREPORTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE \r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALLISON HAS MOVED LITTLE. \r\nALSO...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SEVERAL SMALLER \r\nVORTICES HAVE MOVED OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE \r\nTEXAS COAST SOUTH OF GALVESTON...WHICH HAS COMPLICATED THE LOCATION \r\nESTIMATE PROCESS.  THE ADVISORY POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WEST OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS LOCATION...BUT JUST EAST OF THE RECON POSITIONS BASED \r\nON SYNOPTIC ANALYSES OF THE BROADER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE \r\nTO PREVIOUS TRACK PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE \r\nTO THE LEFT BASED ON THE WESTWARD REPOSITIONING OF THE BROAD \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  TROPICAL STORM ALLISON IS EXPECTED TO \r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ORIENTED EAST-WEST \r\nACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. FROM GEORGIA TO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE BROAD CENTER SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER EXTREME \r\nSOUTHEAST TEXAS OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA LATER TONIGHT AND THEN TURN \r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN \r\nPLAINS GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT \r\nWITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL EVEN THOUGH\r\nALLISON IS A HYBRID SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE \r\nCYCLONE WOULD GET ABOVE 55 KT DUE TO THE COOL OFFSHORE SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES.  THE INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY AT 12 HOURS EVEN \r\nTHOUGH THE SYSTEM CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BE INLAND.  THIS IS DUE TO \r\nTHE LONG FETCH OF SOUTHEASTERLY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO STILL \r\nBE SPREADING ONSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 28.8N  95.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 30.4N  95.1W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.2N  94.8W    30 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 33.6N  93.9W    25 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 34.5N  92.6W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Allison","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-06-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE STALLED FOR A FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS NOW INDICATES THAT A MOTION OF ABOUT \r\n010/5 HAS RESUMED.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERSE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A MOSTLY \r\nWESTWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO IN 72 HOURS AND THE AVIATION MODEL \r\nSHOWING A NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD SLOW MOTION TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA \r\nIN 72 HOURS.  OTHER MODELS SHOW A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT TRACKS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HOURS \r\nAND THEN STATIONARY FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL DISSIPATE \r\nABOUT 100 MILES INLAND IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND REPORTED LATELY IS 33 KNOTS AT SABINE PASS \r\nCMAN STATION SO THE MAX WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS...DOWN 10 \r\nKNOTS FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO \r\nCONTINUE AS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION GRADUALLY MOVES OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nIT IS NOTED THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT WIND OR RAIN NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...IT IS MOSTLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 29.1N  95.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.0N  94.9W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 31.0N  94.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  94.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 31.0N  94.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Allison","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-06-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALLISON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2001\r\n\r\nSURFACE SYNOPTIC AND WSR-88D DATA SHOW AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH \r\nAN ILL-DEFINED CENTER...WHICH APPARENTLY RE-FORMED NORTHWARD AND \r\nCLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  THE SUSTAINED \r\nWINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE CYCLONE \r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5.  TRACK GUIDANCE GOES EVERY WHICH \r\nWAY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nSO.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW ALLISONS REMNANTS GETTING STUCK \r\nBETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST \r\nSHOWS ONLY A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION...KEEPING THE SYSTEM \r\nSTATIONARY THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nSINCE THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY...THERE IS A \r\nCONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON \r\nALLISON.  FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN STORM SUMMARIES ISSUED \r\nBY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER \r\nNFDSCCNS1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER ACUS42 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 30.2N  95.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 30.3N  95.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  95.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 30.5N  95.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 30.5N  95.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-07-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2001\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM NAVY DRIFTING BUOY 41562...ALONG WITH SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATING SHOWING INCREASED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC\r\nHAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 25 KT BASED ON 20 KT WINDS OBSERVED BY THE BUOY AND 25 KT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13.  LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE AGREE THAT A\r\nSTRONG LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A \r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...WITH LBAR AND VICBAR\r\nINDICATING A MORE WESTERLY MOTION AND NHC98 AND CLIPER MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATTER TWO MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH\r\nANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF \r\nABOUT 26C.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 36 TO 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM.  BEYOND THAT TIME...\r\nWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND STOP INTENSIFICATION.\r\nTHIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE\r\nTO 49 KT IN 48 HR WITH ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS.  A DISSENTING OPINION COMES\r\nFROM THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 24 HR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 11.5N  43.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 12.5N  45.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 13.7N  48.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.7N  50.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N  52.9W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N  57.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-07-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS REMAINED STEADY THROUGH MOST OF THIS \r\nMORNING WITH SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES \r\n...WHILE THE INNER CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nMAINTAINED AT 25 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF \r\nT1.5...25 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE \r\nNORTH AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16. OVERNIGHT...THE DEPRESSION HAS \r\nACCELERATED MORE TOWARD THE WEST.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL POSITION \r\nWAS KEPT A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE SATELLITE POSITIONS IN \r\nORDER TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE BUOY \r\nPOSITION FROM ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO.  BUT EVEN WITH THIS...THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION AND OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO \r\nCAMPS... THERE IS STILL REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACKS.  THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST... WHEREAS THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL \r\nMODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD.  THE 00Z AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS \r\nDID NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL AND LOSE THE SYSTEM \r\nAFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL WEAKENS THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY \r\nAND TAKES IT ALMOST DUE WEST.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nAGREE ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION TO \r\nGRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD AS THE LARGE COLD LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO \r\nGRADUALLY FILLS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS A BLEND BETWEEN THE BAM DEEP AND CLIPER MODELS.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CURRENTLY OVER MARGINAL SSTS FOR ANY \r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. LOW-LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST IS \r\nPASSING OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS...WHILE THE WARM MOIST INFLOW \r\nFROM THE SOUTH IS LIKELY HELPING THE RECENT REDEVELOPMENT OF \r\nCONVECTION.  ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST OF 50W LONGITUDE...SSTS \r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ONE FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT IS THE EXACT TRACK OF \r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  RECENT TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT \r\nTHE CYCLONE MAY BE TRACKING MORE WESTWARD.  IF THE DEPRESSION TRACKS \r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...THEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS \r\nAND MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 12.3N  46.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.2N  48.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.3N  51.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.2N  53.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  56.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N  60.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-07-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 12 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A\r\nSMALL BUT ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHOUT BANDING FEATURES.\r\nIT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BUT USING\r\nCONTINUITY...BUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IT IS LOCATED UNDER THE\r\nCONVECTION.  THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR...MOSTLY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE POORLY-DEFINED SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH OR A LOW PRESSURE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 17 KNOTS ALONG \r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO \r\nEXTEND WESTWARD. IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON \r\nTHE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME \r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IF IT WEAKENS....IT COULD TAKE A MORE \r\nWESTERLY TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 13.1N  48.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N  50.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.5N  52.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N  55.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N  57.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N  62.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-07-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2001\r\n \r\nA PLUS FOR GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. THE DEPRESSION FORMED AND \r\nWEAKENED AS FORECAST BY THESE MODELS. \r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER HAS A \r\nCLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND CONSEQUENTLY THIS WILL BE THE LAST \r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT \r\nTHIS SYSTEM HAS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH COULD LEAD TO \r\nREGENERATION. THE REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD \r\nTRACK AND WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 13.0N  49.0W  20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-08-02 19:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n3 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 TO 53 KT WINDS \r\nAT 1000 FT...WHICH NOW MAKES THE DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF \r\nMEXICO TROPICAL STORM BARRY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/04 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE INNER \r\nCIRCULATION IS BROAD AND THERE MAY BE SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE \r\nCENTER POSITION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH COULD CREATE SOME \r\nERRATIC MOTION IN THE TRACK.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN \r\nTURNS BARRY WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 \r\nHOURS. THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE CLIPER AND A98E...WHICH TAKE THE \r\nCYCLONE INLAND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  I HAVE \r\nDISCOUNTED THOSE TWO MODELS BASED ON THE STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH \r\nPRESSURE FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S.\r\n\r\nSLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION...BUT WITH A HYBRID SYSTEM LIKE THIS...THERE MAY BE \r\nSOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES \r\nCOMPLETELY TROPICAL.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...WATCHES \r\nOR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF \r\nCOASTAL AREAS LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1900Z 26.3N  84.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 26.9N  85.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 27.3N  86.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.6N  87.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.8N  88.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  90.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-08-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 02 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND 54 KT WINDS \r\nAT 1000 FT AND A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO \r\nDEVELOP AND NOW WRAPS MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW \r\nIS GOOD IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE AND HAS IMPROVED TO THE NORTHWEST... \r\nBUT REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO UPEPR-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/03 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY.  \r\nALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE STATISTICAL MODELS... \r\nAGREE ON BARRY GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND \r\nEVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE \r\nSTRENGTH OF THE HEAT WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE \r\nCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD \r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD.  NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO \r\nDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S. BY 36 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD \r\nALSO ACT TO KEEP BARRY FROM GAINING MUCH LATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK IS BETWEEN NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODEL...AND CLOSE TO THE SPEED \r\nOF THE AVN MODEL.\r\n\r\nSLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER... IN 36 TO 48 HOURS THE NORTHERLY \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND THAT COULD ALLOW FOR BARRY \r\nTO STRENGTHEN MORE THAN THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.  THIS \r\nWOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY IF A 200 MB 50 KT JET MAX DEVELOPS ON THE \r\nEAST SIDE LIKE THE AVN MODEL IS PREDICTING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST IS A BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS BARRY UP 79 KT IN \r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH \r\nCENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 26.4N  85.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 26.7N  85.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 27.2N  86.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.6N  87.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.8N  88.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  90.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-08-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2001\r\n \r\nBARRY HAS BECOME A BATCH OF MIXED SIGNALS THIS EVENING.  FIXES\r\nFROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THE CENTER WAS MOVING\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KT.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE FIXES FROM \r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...INCLUDING SOME APPARENTLY GOOD VISIBLE\r\nFIXES...SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING NORTH OR EVEN EAST OF NORTH. \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT IS SUPPORTED BY DATA FROM BUOY 42003...WHILE THE\r\nSATELLITE IS SUPPORTED BY THE TAMPA WSR-88D.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS TILTED DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THAT\r\nTHE SATELLITE AND RADAR ARE TRACKING THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER.  GIVEN\r\nTHE  SPREAD OF THE FIXES...THE SYNOPTIC POSITION WILL BE A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS PLATFORMS.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOME\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AS WELL AS GUARD AGAINST THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER MAY RE-FORM TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO\r\nTHE PRIMARY CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/5.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY...RAWINSONDES...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE\r\nBARRY IS EMBEDDED IN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN STRONG RIDGES\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  \r\nADDITIONALLY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS\r\nFROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS ACROSS THE\r\nWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.  THIS SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN SUGGESTS THAT BARRY WILL GO NOWHERE FAST...AND NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON THAT POINT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS OTHERWISE A\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...RANGING FROM THE NHC98\r\nTAKING BARRY NORTH TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WESTWARD\r\nTRACKS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.  OTHER MODELS SUGGEST AN\r\nERRATIC LOOPING MOTION OF THE SORT SEEN IN THE 18Z AVN RUN.  THE\r\nSTRONG U.S. RIDGE STILL LOOKS LIKE THE FEATURE MOST LIKELY TO STEER\r\nBARRY.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...SLOWLY TOWARD TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1007 MB ON THE LAST 3 RECON FIXES.\r\nHOWEVER...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE BELOW 50 KT DURING THAT TIME.\r\nTHUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\nTHE FIX SPREAD SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY BE BECOMING\r\nDECOUPLED FROM THE SMALL UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND IF THE SYSTEM IS MOVING AS INDICATED BY THE AIRCRAFT\r\nTHEN IT IS BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT 15-25 KT UPPER-LEVEL WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD DIMINISH AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS\r\nOVER THE WESTERN GULF.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR FUTURE STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nAND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER STORM FORECAST BY THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS AND THE WEAKER STORM INDICATED BY CURRENT TRENDS.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA...AND\r\n12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS OF BUOY DATA.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH\r\nCENTRAL GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 26.8N  85.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 27.2N  86.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N  87.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 27.7N  87.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 27.9N  88.9W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.0N  91.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-08-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2001\r\n \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER BARRY AND\r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA CLEARLY REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS NOW DETACHED FROM THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  THIS LOCATION IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH EARLIER FIXES PROVIDED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT.  IN GENERAL...THIS SEPARATION SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED AND THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KNOTS.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY IN\r\nA FEW HOURS.  UNANIMOUSLY...ALL MODELS GET RID OF THE WESTERLIES IN\r\nA DAY OR SO AND BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS MAKE BARRY A\r\nHURRICANE.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE\r\nSTATE OF THE ART MODELS...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE NOT MANY\r\nSYSTEMS RECOVER ONCE THEY BECOME SO SHEARED.  THERE ARE NO\r\nINDICATIONS THAT THE UPER-WESTERLIES ARE RELAXING AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nCOINCIDENTAL WITH THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET MISSION...WHICH SAMPLED\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT...THE GFDL..AVN AND THE UK MODELS CHANGED THE\r\nFORECAST AND THEY ARE NOW BRINGING BARRY TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS. PREVIOUSLY...THEY KEPT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  DUE TO SUCH CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND BRINGS BARRY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST\r\nBY 72 HOURS AFTER A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS FORECAST\r\nASSUMES THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OVERCOME\r\nTHE SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 26.8N  86.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 27.0N  87.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 27.3N  88.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N  89.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.8N  90.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 28.5N  90.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM CDT FRI AUG 03 2001\r\n \r\nBARRY HAS REGAINED SOME CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING AND \r\nRECON FOUND 35 TO 40 KT WINDS AND 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.  \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LIMITED MAINLY TO THE EAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR.  OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BETTER CONVECTIVE \r\nCHARACTER TODAY THAN AT THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE \r\nMAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON TAKING BARRY \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THERE IS \r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS WITH NOGAPS TAKING THE \r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS \r\nCOAST...WHILE THE AVN TURNS BARRY SHARPLY NORTHWARD ACROSS \r\nPENSACOLA.  IN FACT THE...THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE \r\nEASTERNMOST MODELS WITHIN THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  WHILE I HAVE NOT \r\nCOMPLETELY IGNORED THOSE TWO FORECASTS...I AM HAVING TROUBLE SEEING \r\nTHE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH SUCH A LARGE \r\nAND STRONG SURFACE-TO-300 MB RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THAT IS \r\nALSO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST SLOWS DOWN BARRY TO ABOUT 3 KT BY 48 HOURS AND IS VERY \r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND THE GUNS ENSEMBLE AND GFDL \r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS \r\nBRING BARRY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO \r\nINTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO 80 KT AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...BY 72 \r\nHOURS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON WEAKENING THE SHEAR ACROSS \r\nBARRY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AND EVEN BUILD A WEAK 200 MB RIDGE OVER THE \r\nCYCLONE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE \r\nCLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTH ALONG THE GULF \r\nCOAST...I HAVE OPTED TO ONLY BRING THE INTENSITY UP SLOWLY.  NOTE \r\nTHAT IF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT OCCUR...THE FORECAST WEAK SHEAR \r\nAND STRONG NORTHERLY 200 MB JET PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ON THE EAST \r\nSIDE OF THE SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 27.0N  87.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 27.1N  88.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 27.3N  88.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N  89.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.9N  90.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  91.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2001\r\n \r\nBARRY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...EXCEPT \r\nFOR THE LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER OR NEAR THE \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND CIRRUS \r\nCAN BE SEEN FLOWING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW IN \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON \r\nNO CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB... AS LAST REPORTED BY \r\nAIR FORCE RECON AT 03/1706Z.  THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/03. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. THE 12Z NOGAPS \r\nMODEL HAS NOW SWUNG AROUND WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF ITS \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND TAKES BARRY INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST \r\nLOUISIANA AND NEW ORLEANS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THIS SEEMS A LITTLE \r\nPREMATURE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SURFACE TO 300 MB HIGH \r\nPRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND \r\nSOUTHERN U.S.  THE AVN MODEL HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK FURTHER WEST TO \r\nTHE WEST OF MOBILE...WHILE THE UKMET STALLS THE CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS \r\nAND THEN TAKES IT NORTH OVER MOBILE IN 60 HOURS.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT \r\nOF WINDSHIELD-WIPERING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING OVER THE PAST \r\n24 HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACKS.  HOWEVER...THE LONGER BARRY REMAINS NEARLY \r\nSTATIONARY...THE MORE LIKELY THE UKMET/AVN SCENARIO COULD DEVELOP \r\nWITH BARRY TRACKING CLOSER TO NEW ORLEANS OR MOBILE.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND \r\nGFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE BARRY A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND THEN \r\nINTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO 80 KT AND 104 KT/967 MB...RESPECTIVELY...BY \r\n72 HOURS.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS \r\nTREND OF WEAKENING THE SHEAR ACROSS BARRY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN \r\nBUILD A WEAK 200 MB RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE SHEAR APPEARS TO \r\nALREADY BE WEAKENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS JUST NORTH OF BARRY HAS BEGUN TO \r\nFRACTURE. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE \r\nNORTH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DICTATES THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AT LEAST FOR NOW. IF DRY \r\nAIR ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE LONG TERM...THEN THE WEAK \r\nSHEAR AND STRONG NORTHERLY 200 MB JET PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ON THE \r\nEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION AROUND 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 27.0N  87.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 27.1N  88.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.3N  88.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N  89.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 27.8N  90.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N  91.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-08-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2001\r\n \r\nBARRY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AT THE MOMENT.  THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER IS HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING TROPICAL STORM\r\nWINDS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED\r\nTO 1005/1006 MB AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA ARE 35 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/02.  BARRY\r\nIS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A DEEP-LAYER COL REGION BETWEEN RIDGES\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.  THUS...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK\r\nAND IT IS NOT LIKELY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT AN IMPULSE WILL BREAK THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nU.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAKEN IT AFTER 24 HR.  THE MODELS\r\nTHEN SHOW THE IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH BARRY AND CAUSING A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN\r\nTHE TRACKS.  THE 18Z ETA RUN CALLS FOR LANDFALL AT APALACHICOLA\r\nFL...THE LBAR IS POINTING TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND THE OTHER\r\nMODELS ARE INBETWEEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24 HR TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION...AND A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nMOTION AFTER 36 HR TO REFLECT THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT EVEN WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE POSSIBLE LANDFALL\r\nPOINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL...\r\nGFDN...NOGAPS...AVN...AND UKMET.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER\r\nBARRY...WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 18 HR...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE INCREASE\r\nIN BARRY'S OVERALL SIZE SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SURVIVE THE UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY BEGIN STRENGTHENING TOMORROW. \r\nTHESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH CALLS FOR NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 12 TO 18 HR FOLLOWED BY RAPID DEVELOPMENT INTO\r\nA HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 24 HR FOLLOWED BY STRENGHTENING TO\r\nNEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST LANDFALL\r\nIN LOUISIANA.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF BARRY DOES NOT MOVE AS FAR WEST AS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...THE THREAT AREA AND WATCHES/\r\nWARNINGS WILL LIKELY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST.  INTERESTS ALONG\r\nTHE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BARRY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 26.8N  87.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 26.9N  88.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  88.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 27.4N  89.9W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 28.3N  90.4W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 30.1N  90.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001\r\n\r\nBARRY LOOKS MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY THAN 24 HOURS\r\nAGO.  HOWEVER THERE WERE NO REPORTS FROM THE RECON OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS.  BECAUSE BARRY DEFINITELY HAS A LARGE AND WELL DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEING KEPT AS A 35-KNOT\r\nSYSTEM UNTIL FURTHER INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.  IT COULD BE A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nAS GLOBAL MODELS PREDICTED...THE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND\r\nNOW BARRY IS UNDER AN EAST TO NORTHEAST UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE THE SHEAR AND IN FACT...SOME OF THEM DEVELOP AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM.  THIS PATTERN WOULD BE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH MAY BEGIN LATER TONIGHT\r\nOR SUNDAY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS MAKE BARRY A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COAST.\r\n\r\nBARRY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...PERHAPS JUST A WESTWARD DRIFT.  THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE ERODED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK WESTWARD MOVING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS NEW PATTERN WOULD\r\nPROVIDE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IN A DAY OR TWO AS BARRY SWINGS\r\nAROUND THE DISTURBANCE.  MODELS...MOSTLY DYNAMICAL...RESPOND TO THIS\r\nFEATURE BY MOVING BARRY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT.  WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE SHIFTED OR REQUIRED\r\nRESPECTIVELY LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA\r\n...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF BARRY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 26.7N  87.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  88.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.3N  88.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  89.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  89.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 30.0N  89.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001\r\n \r\nA RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING \r\nLITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A VERY SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.  THE 12Z \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE WAS 270/01.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL AT 500 \r\nMB SHOWS AN IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTH WEST TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN 42 \r\nHOURS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM COULD ROTATE AROUND THIS IMPULSE \r\nAND MOVE MORE NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY \r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nCONSENSUS TRACK OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND AVIATION MODELS. \r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS AT 1200 FT ARE NEAR 30 KNOTS\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.\r\nWIND SPEEDS UP TO 39 KNOTS WERE REPORTED SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SO THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  WITH WARM SSTS AND MINIMAL VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS IN 36 \r\nHOURS WHILE THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH 100 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE \r\nMISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION AND AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL \r\nSTORM WATCH EAST TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 27.0N  87.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.2N  87.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  88.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 29.0N  88.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  88.8W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001\r\n \r\nTHE 12 AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS THE SAME SCENARIO AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nRUN.  AN IMPULSE AT 500 MB DROPS SOUTHWESTWARD AND BECOMES A WEAK \r\nCUT-OFF LOW OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN 36 HOURS.  THIS ACCELERATES \r\nBARRY NORTHWARD OR MAYBE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A WHILE AROUND THE \r\nEAST SIDE OF THE LOW.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/01.  THE \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO \r\nABOUT 10 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND THIS TRACK SHOULD MOVE BARRY INLAND \r\nIN 30 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS STILL SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF A COMPOSITE \r\nOF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND AVN MODELS.\r\n\r\nU.S. AIRFORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT TODAY INDICATES THAT BARRY REMAINS A \r\n35-KNOT STORM WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  VISIBLE \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION...NORTHEAST AND \r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  ALSO \r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON STRENGTHENING AND SO \r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRINGING THE WIND TO 55 KNOTS BEFORE \r\nLANDFALL INSTEAD OF 60 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THAT THE TROPICAL \r\nSTORM WARNING BE EXTENDED EASTWARD TO APALACHICOLA.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 27.2N  87.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 27.7N  87.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 29.0N  87.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  87.3W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 33.0N  88.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM CDT SAT AUG 04 2001\r\n\r\nWHILE IT STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNHEALTHY...BARRY HAS IMPROVED IN\r\nORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 24 HR WITH A CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THAT IS ALSO WHERE A HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND 44 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE WAS 1003 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SLOW AT 015/2.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST BY THE LARGE SCALE GUIDANCE DROPPING\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI.  THIS LENDS\r\nCONFIDENCE TO THE ALMOST UNANIMOUS MODEL OPINION THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL FORM A CUT-OFF LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND PUSH BARRY TO THE\r\nNORTH.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD. \r\nPARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY OUTLIERS ARE VICBAR AND LBAR...WHICH WANT\r\nTO TAKE BARRY TO THE MISSISSIPPI COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nIGNORE THESE AND TAKE BARRY ALONG THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN\r\nABOUT 30 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER\r\nBARRY...WHICH IS A CONSIDERABLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nCOMPARED TO 24 HR AGO.  HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS NOT YET TAKEN FULL\r\nADVANTAGE OF THE SITUATION AND REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.  ALL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO DO THE SAME.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE HIGHEST FORECAST POINT WIND IS 50 KT...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE\r\nTHAT BARRY COULD REACH 55-60 KT INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\nONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT ARE THE WESTERLIES SEEN OVER THE\r\nGULF COAST STATES.  WHILE THE MODELS INDICATE THESE WILL MISS THE\r\nSTORM...THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THEY MAY HAVE SOME IMPACT ON SUNDAY\r\nMORNING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nFOR THE FIRST 12 HR TO REFLECT THIS AND THE CURRENT LEVEL OF\r\nSTORM ORGANIZATION.\r\n\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE\r\nFLORIDA COAST ON SUNDAY IF BARRY MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nOR GETS LARGER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 27.4N  87.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 27.8N  87.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 29.2N  87.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.2N  87.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 33.2N  87.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001\r\n \r\nBARRY HAS DEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS TO -81C AT TIMES...OVER \r\nAND AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE \r\nCONVECTIVE BLOB...BUT RATHER IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST PORTION \r\nDUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 05/0501Z \r\nFOUND 46 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT IN TWO LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER...BUT THE CREW WERE AVOIDING THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY \r\nHAVE MISSED SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nINCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE RECON WINDS AND THE \r\nOVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN.  THIS IS ALSO \r\nSUPPORTED BY SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...T3.0... \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/05. NO SIGNIFICNAT CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THERE REMAINS STRONG \r\nAGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON TAKING BARRY INLAND IN \r\nABOUT 24 TO 30 HOURS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST BETWEEN \r\nPANAMA CITY AND PENSACOLA. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER ARKANSAS DIGS \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD...THE BACKING FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD \r\nHELP TO LIFT THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST \r\nAND SOUTH OF BARRY SHOULD ALSO ACT TO MOVE THE STORM NORTHWARD \r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON \r\nFORMING A REX-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH AN \r\nEAST-WEST ORIENTED 500 MB RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BARRY.  THIS MAY \r\nRESULT IN BARRY MOVING ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE INLAND BEFORE STALLING \r\nOR DRIFTING SLOWLY WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE \r\nWEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS AND GUNA ENSEMBLE TRACKS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THE \r\n200 MB FLOW HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BACKING AND BECOMING LESS HOSTILE FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nFLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BACKING TO MORE OF A SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nDIRECTION...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR AN ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD ACROSS \r\nBARRY.  RADAR DATA FROM EGLIN AFB AND MOBILE...ALONG WITH SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY...HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN SHOWING GOOD ROTATION IN THE CLOUD \r\nTOPS AROUND THE RECON CENTER POSITIONS SINCE ABOUT 0400Z.  THE GULF \r\nWATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING... EVEN WITH THE \r\nCURRENT SHEAR CONDITONS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED \r\nCLOSELY AS IT BRINGS BARRY UP TO 52-58 KT AT LANDFALL.  THERE IS \r\nSTILL A CHANCE THAT BARRY COULD REACH 60-65 KT INTENSITY JUST BEFORE \r\nLANDFALL.  RECON WILL BE BACK OUT TO INVESTIGATE BARRY AT AROUND \r\n1200Z...AND HOPEFULLY THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SURPISES IN THE \r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA \r\nLATER TODAY IF BARRY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY FRTHER TO THE EAST OR \r\nINTENSIFIES MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 27.8N  86.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  86.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 30.2N  86.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.8N  87.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.9N  88.0W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 33.8N  89.2W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS SHOWED THAT BARRY DEEPENED 14 MB IN \r\nSIX HOURS THIS MORNING.  THE PRESSURE HAS MOMENTARILY STABILIZED \r\nAROUND 990 MB...BUT WITH A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST RIGHT OVER THE \r\nCENTER BARRY SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON.  WITH BARRY NOW \r\nMOVING STEADILY CLOSER TO LAND...ONLY ANOTHER 15 KT OR SO OF \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...IN ACCORD WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE \r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING AND TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BARRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO ITS WEST VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS COULD LINGER\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER\r\nSERIOUS FLOODING EVENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 28.4N  86.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 29.6N  86.3W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  86.7W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.4N  87.4W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 33.3N  88.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 33.9N  89.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001\r\n \r\nAFTER THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY THIS\r\nMORNING...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE SINCE 12Z.  MEANWHILE...THE\r\nOVERALL STRUCTURE OF BARRY HAS BEEN CHANGING...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF OUTER BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE IMMEDIATE\r\nEFFECT OF THIS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TO ISOLATE THE INNER CORE AND SLOW\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE OUTER CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS.\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CORE REGION AND\r\nTHIS FLOW IS BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE CORE.  IN SPITE OF THIS...A\r\nDROPSONDE NEAR 19Z REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 61 KT.  THUS...THERE\r\nIS PERHAPS A VERY VERY SMALL AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  \r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ANY LESSENING OF THE SHEAR COULD \r\nALLOW BARRY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nAFTER DAWDLING FOR A FEW HOURS...A MOTION OF 360/5 HAS RESUMED.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ALL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GENTLE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  IN THE LONG RUN...THE\r\nREMNANTS OF BARRY ARE LIKELY TO SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN THE ARK/LA/MS\r\nAREA TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 29.1N  86.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.9N  86.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 31.7N  86.9W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 33.0N  87.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 33.5N  88.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  89.5W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS INDICATE THAT BARRY HAS NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HOLDING AROUND 992 MB.\r\nWSR-88D OBSERVATIONS SHOW TRANSIENT EYEWALL FORMATIONS BUT OVERALL\r\nTHE INNER CORE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER DEFINED...WITH A MOSTLY OPEN\r\nEYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  IR IMAGES SHOW SOME BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING IS STILL\r\nEVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL ABATE BEFORE LANDFALL...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS QUICKLY CLOSING.\r\n\r\nBARRY CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...010/07...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF\r\nA BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE LATEST NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER. THE LARGE\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE U.S. SHOULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE\r\nPROGRESS OF BARRYS REMNANTS.  THUS...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO\r\nSPEND ENOUGH TIME IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PRODUCE\r\nANOTHER SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 29.9N  86.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.9N  86.4W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 32.2N  87.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 33.5N  88.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 34.0N  89.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 35.0N  90.5W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT AT 06/0451 FOUND A 700 MB \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...JUST OFFSHORE. \r\nUSING THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A 64 KT \r\nSURFACE WIND...WHICH WOULD HAVE MADE BARRY A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT \r\nLANDFALL. THIS MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL REPORT ON THIS SYSTEM.  \r\nHOWEVER...BARRY WILL BE KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM ON ALL OF THE \r\nOPERATIONAL ADVISORY PRODUCTS.  SURFACE FRICTION MAY HAVE HELPED TO \r\nTIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION DURING AND SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL AS \r\nINDICATED BY THE RECENT 50 TO 55 KT WIND GUSTS REPORTED BY EGLIN AFB \r\nON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/08.  BARRY INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nTO AROUND 10-11 KT AT LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THERE IS EXCELLENT\r\nCONVERGENCE AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON BARRY SLOWING AND TURNING\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY.  THE AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN THE\r\nBEST PERFORMING DYNAMICAL MODEL BY FAR...IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF ALL\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE IMMEDIATE SHARP NORTHWESTERLY TURN SHOWN BY\r\nTHE AVN SEEMS A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE AVN TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THIS TRACK\r\nIS ALSO IN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINING MODEL SUITE AND IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXPECTED TO STEER BARRY\r\nMOVE WESTWRAD WITH TIME.  THE BIGGEST CONCERN IS THE SLOW FORWARD\r\nSPEED OF ONLY 3-5 KT ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND INTO ARKANSAS AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SERIOUS INLAND \r\nFLOODING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.\r\n\r\nBARRY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND QUICKLY SPIN DOWN NOW THAT THE \r\nCIRCULATION IS WELL INLAND.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED \r\nWIND GUSTS TO 60 KT IN SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER BASED \r\nON DOPPLER RADAR INDICATIONS OF MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION IN SOME OF \r\nTHE CELLS.  FOR THIS REASON...THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST \r\nINTENSITY INTENSITY WAS KEPT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR AN \r\nINLAND DECAYING TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERNOON HEATING MAY ALSO HELP TO \r\nGENERATE MORE DEEP CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND BRING SOME OF THE \r\nSTRONGER WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 31.0N  86.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 32.1N  87.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 33.1N  88.2W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 33.9N  89.4W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  90.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 35.5N  91.0W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barry","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2001\r\n \r\nBARRY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.  HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND REPORTS \r\nOVER THE GULF ARE DOWN TO ABOUT 25 KT.  SIMILAR VALUES...WITH GUSTS \r\nTO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING IN THE STRONG \r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THE VIGOROUS BAND IN \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  ON THIS BASIS...BARRY IS DOWNGRADED TO A \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FORWARD \r\nSPEED OF BARRY HAS INCREASED...TO 335/13...WHICH LESSENS THE \r\nIMMEDIATE THREAT OF A MAJOR INLAND FLOODING EVENT.  HOWEVER...THE \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO SLOW \r\nTHE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS COULD INCREASE THE FLOODING \r\nTHREAT IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 32.1N  87.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 33.4N  88.7W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 34.2N  89.7W    20 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 34.8N  90.6W    20 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 35.5N  91.5W    15 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 36.5N  91.5W    15 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2001\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH PERSISTENT \r\nCONVECTION WITHIN ITS LARGE CIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS STILL POORLY DEFINED AND APPEARS \r\nTO BE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. \r\nTHE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.  IN \r\nADDITION...THE NOAA/NESDIS TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS PARAMETER FOR \r\nTHAT REGION SUGGESTS THAT CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE MORE \r\nFAVORABLE THAN CLIMATOLOGY.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL \r\nMAKES THIS SYSTEM A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS.  SUCH A FAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS \r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE LATEST GFDL AND UKMET MODEL RUNS \r\nDISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS AND THERE IS A STRONG \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  WITH THE \r\nINITIATION OF ADVISORIES...SUBSEQUENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL \r\nPROBABLY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE FORECAST OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 12.3N  45.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.5N  48.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 12.5N  52.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.0N  55.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N  58.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N  62.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2001\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION.  CONVENTIONAL INTENSITY FORECAST FACTORS...LOW\r\nSHEAR...HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE...SUGGEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THIS IS REAFFIRMED BY SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL\r\nWHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS AND\r\nNEARLY 100 KNOTS BY THREE DAYS. THE GFDL IS NOW INTENSIFYING THE\r\nSYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT \r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS \r\nBUT STILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS \r\nAS INDICATED BY THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...ABOUT 20 KNOTS\r\nAND BECAUSE THERE IS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WITH ITS CURRENT SPEED AND GENERAL DIRECTION. THIS\r\nWOULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE AND ANY REFORMATION OF THE\r\nCENTER COULD CHANGE BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 12.5N  47.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N  50.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N  54.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 13.5N  57.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N  61.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  66.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2001\r\n\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS \r\nVERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  A BANDING FEATURE HAS BEEN \r\nTRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...BUT OVERALL THE \r\nCONVECTION IS RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AT THIS TIME.  THE SYSTEM HAS \r\nBEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR...THUS INHIBITING \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT \r\nTHE HIGH LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AS \r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER WEST...AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN BUT NOT AS \r\nAGRESSIVE AS THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL...SHIPS. \r\n\r\nTHE RAPID WESTWARD MOVEMENT...270/23...CONTINUES.  THERE IS A VERY \r\nLARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION...FORCING THE SWIFT WESTWARD MOTION.  GLOBAL MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS STEERING REGIME FOR THE \r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE IN THE \r\nLATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  HENCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A \r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE \r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS ALSO SIMILAR \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH \r\nTHE LATEST GFDL RUN.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT \r\nOF THIS TRACK.  HOWEVER THE LATEST...18Z...RUN OF THAT MODEL SHOWED \r\nSOME DEFICIENCIES IN THE INITIALIZATION...WITH AN ADDITIONAL \r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO THE EAST OF THE ACTUAL CENTER.  THE \r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND A TAD \r\nFASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 12.6N  50.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N  53.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N  57.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.0N  60.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N  63.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  67.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM AST THU AUG 16 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS INCREASED IN\r\nBOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...30 KT...\r\nAND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THIS AND THE RAPID WESTWARD\r\nMOTION...THE SYSTEM MAY WELL BE A TROPICAL STORM NOW.  HOWEVER...\r\nGIVEN THE USUAL NIGHTTIME UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT WHERE THE CENTER IS\r\nIN RELATION TO THE CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A \r\nDEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE RAPID WESTWARD TRACK CONTINUES AT 270/24.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS\r\nA LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CONTINUES NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE DURING \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH FAVORS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nAT A QUICK FORWARD SPEED.  ALL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE\r\nCYCLONE MAY MOVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE MODELS WITH THE\r\nBEST INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND GFDL...\r\nARE ALL FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION SHOULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY IF IT\r\nHAS NOT DONE SO ALREADY.  IT IS SHOWING GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...\r\nAND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A CONTINUED LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THIS FAVORS STRENGTHENING...AND ALL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE\r\nFACTORS ARE CLIMATOLOGICAL.  FIRST...MOST ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES\r\nMOVING THIS QUICKLY HAVE SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING.  SECOND...THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERALLY NOT A FAVORABLE REGION FOR\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GOING TO\r\nGO AGAINST CLIMATOLOGY AND CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...ST.\r\nLUCIA...AND ST. VINCENT.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE EITHER NOW IN\r\nEFFECT OR RECOMMENDED ELSEWHERE FROM THE GRENADINES TO DOMINICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 12.7N  52.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N  56.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 13.6N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 14.3N  63.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N  66.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  71.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2001\r\n\r\nCHANTAL IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS AROUND THE \r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS \r\nINDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL PERSIST...FORCING CHANTAL ON A GENERAL \r\nWEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A DECREASE \r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH BANDING \r\nFEATURES AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS STILL \r\nSOMEWHAT WEAK NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND A \r\nTHERE WILL BE BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS WHEN THE \r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS THE AREA LATER TODAY. THERE IS AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM THAT GLOBAL MODELS KEEP WITH \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DESPITE THIS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nPATTERN...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  THE GFDL...WHICH \r\nPREVIOUSLY MADE CHANTAL A HURRICANE IS NOW ALSO WEAKENING IT. WITH \r\nSUCH FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT... IT IS REASONABLE TO INDICATE \r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE \r\nSHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS THAT CHANTAL COULD \r\nQUICKLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  \r\n\r\nNOTE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM...ALL \r\nINGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE PRESENT AT THIS TIME TO HAVE A POTENTIALLY \r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ALL \r\nINTERESTS IN THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CHANTAL DURING \r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 13.1N  55.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N  59.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N  64.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.0N  68.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 16.0N  72.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  77.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-08-17 00:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2001\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS THAT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AIR \r\nFORCE RECON COULD NOT CLOSE OFF A CENTER AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATES \r\nA VERY BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH NO DEFINITE MINIMUM.  \r\nTHUS CHANTAL IS DEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AND ADVISORIES ARE \r\nBEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELD LOOKS \r\nQUITE FAVORABLE...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS \r\nOF REDEVELOPMENT.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE \r\nTHE SYSTEM TOMORROW MORNING.\r\n\r\nWITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...THE WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO \r\nMOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2315Z 13.0N  61.0W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2001\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH CHANTAL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE...THE RECON HAS \r\nNOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THIS REAFFIRMS ONE MORE \r\nTIME THE VALUE OF AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE.\r\n \r\nCHANTAL IS PROBABLY A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE AT THIS TIME BUT \r\nADVISORIES ARE STILL BEING ISSUED UNTIL RECONNAISSANCE CONFIRMS THE \r\nLACK OF CIRCULATION. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS \r\nAND HEAVY RAINS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nNOTE...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ASSUME THAT CHANTAL WILL \r\nREMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 12.9N  58.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 12.9N  61.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N  65.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N  70.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  74.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N  80.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chantal","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-08-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH EXCELLENT \r\nOUTFLOW.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HUNTED VERY \r\nHARD...GOOD JOB...AND FOUND A SMALL 1010 MB CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nTHEREFORE...ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL ARE BEING \r\nRESUMED. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTHENING IS \r\nINDICATED.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A \r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING...A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHEN \r\nCHANTAL ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE \r\nMORE FAVORABLE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 23 KNOTS. MOST OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MAINTAINING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF CHANTAL. THIS FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A \r\nCONTINUATION OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 13.2N  65.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N  69.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N  73.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  77.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N  81.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  85.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-08-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN CHASING CHANTAL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  RECON DATA SHOW THAT...FINALLY...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A CENTER OF 1006 MB.  SATELLITE\r\nREPRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE WITH DISTINCT HOOKING\r\nBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BOTH SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nAND RECON DATA INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT ALOFT APPEARS TO BE IDEAL FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nINTENSIFY SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD WITH CHANTAL.  IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE OCEANIC\r\nCONDITIONS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE.  CHANTAL COULD STRENGTHEN MORE\r\nTHAN INDICATED JUST BEFORE APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. \r\n\r\nCHANTAL APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20 TO 22 KNOTS DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF CHANTAL.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE PATTERN\r\nBECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED AT A LONGER RANGE WHEN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.  BY THEN...CHANTAL COULD ENTER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO EITHER CROSSING YUCATAN OR THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.\r\nTHE LATTER IS THE OPTION PROVIDED BY THE NCEP AVN GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n\r\nCHANTAL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE \r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD \r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  LISTEN TO YOUR LOCAL FORECAST \r\nOFFICE INFORMATION BEFORE YOU BEGIN WEEKEND PLANS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 14.3N  67.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N  70.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  74.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  78.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  81.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-08-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/20 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS... \r\nPOSSIBLY A LITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE 500-MB TROUGH \r\nOVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY A LITLE OVER THE NEXT 3 \r\nDAYS.  THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF CHANTAL WEST OF ABOUT \r\n80W CAUSING CHANTAL TO GRADUALLY SLOW TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY\r\n48 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS A BLEND OF THE AVIATION...GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT IN THE STORM REPORTED A MAXIMUM WIND OF \r\n58 KNOTS AT 1500 FT NORTH OF THE CENTER AND 1004 MB CENTRAL \r\nPRESSURE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON \r\nTHIS RECON WIND OBSERVATION.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT \r\nMAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A STRENGTHENING PHASE AS THE CONVECTION HAS \r\nBECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND A BANDING FEATURE AND \r\nUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOK IMPRESSIVE.  IN CONTRAST THE AIRCRAFT \r\nREPORTED THAT THE CIRCULATION AT 15OO FT IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED.  \r\nWITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A\r\nHURRICANE IN 24 HOURS AND TO 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE \r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS AND GFLD GUIDANCE...AND A LOT MORE \r\nAGGRESSIVE THAN THE UKMET MODEL WHICH DOES NOT INDICATE SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE\r\nISSUING A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WARNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 14.6N  69.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.3N  72.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.2N  75.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N  78.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  81.3W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N  86.5W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-08-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2001\r\n \r\nCHANTAL IS A BIT TRICKY TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.  A HURRICANE HUNTER \r\nAIRCRAFT IN THE STORM PRIOR TO 06Z INDICATED THE WIND FIELD WAS\r\nDISTORTED DUE TO THE RAPID MOTION AND THAT THE CENTER WAS HARD TO\r\nFIND.  A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS HAS FURTHER COMPLICATED MATTERS...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NORTH OF THE AIRCRAFT\r\nFIXES...CURRENT SATELLITE FIXES...AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DID REPORT A 1003 MB PRESSURE AND 1500 FT WINDS OF 73 KT. \r\nTHE WINDS MAY HAVE BEEN RELATED TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE EFFECTS...SO\r\nTHE INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE\r\n50 KT.\r\n\r\nEVEN WITH THE ABOVE DIFFICULTIES...CHANTAL APPEARS TO BE MOVING A\r\nLITTLE MORE WESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY...275/20.  THE STORM IS\r\nCURRENTLY TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 24-36 HR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\nTHE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR AS A MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S....AND NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY DIVERGING.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nKEEP CHANTAL MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA...WHILE THE AVN...BAMD...AND LBAR TURN THE STORM\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  THE\r\nGFDN IS AN EXTREME WEST OUTLIER...TAKING CHANTAL INTO THE PACIFIC\r\nBY 72 HR.  WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY...IT COULD HAPPEN IF CHANTAL\r\nSTAYS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MISS CONNECTIONS WITH THE TROUGH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GFDL...VICBAR...NHC98 AND CLIPER MODELS.\r\n \r\nCHANTAL CONTINUES TO GENERATE STRONG CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. \r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD\r\nTHE STORM EVER GET ITS ACT TOGETHER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR CHANTAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR AND REACH CATEGORY 2\r\nSTATUS AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IT IS NOTABLE\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION'S EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUE FOR\r\nPREDICTION RAPID INTENSIFICATION REALLY LIKES CHANTAL...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT IT COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST\r\nONCE IT FINALLY CONSOLIDATES.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE\r\nISLAND.  WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII WOULD\r\nKEEP HURRICANE CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...AND TRACK TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO THE\r\nISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 14.8N  71.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.3N  74.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.1N  77.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N  80.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 17.8N  82.6W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-08-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE SHOWS THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW EXPOSED...LEAVING THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION BEHIND.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FIXED ANOTHER WEAK CENTER A LITTLE\r\nBIT TO THE SOUTH WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KNOTS.  ALL THIS\r\nMEANS THAT CHANTAL HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED WITH AN ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE POSITION USED AT\r\nTHIS TIME IS THE MIDDLE POINT BETWEEN SATELLITE AND RECON WITH AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS.  WITH THIS UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT...\r\nIT IS TEMPTING TO FORECAST WEAKENING.  BUT FOR NOW...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IS FORECAST AT LEAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.  CHANTAL COULD EASILY\r\nWEAKEN BACK TO A TROPICAL WAVE...IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.\r\n\r\nIN THIS ADVISORY...IT IS ASSUMED THAT CHANTAL WILL SURVIVE AND AN\r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND COULD BEGIN ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE\r\nNORTHWEST CARIBBEAN IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GENERAL\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS\r\nHAVE NOT CHANGED FROM EARLIER RUNS...EVENTUALLY BRINGING A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 15.0N  73.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  77.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  80.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  82.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  85.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N  88.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-08-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2001\r\n \r\nUNEXPECTED SHEAR FROM AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nDISRUPTED THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT CENTER OF LOW CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF\r\nA STRONGLY CURVED CLOUD BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DATA FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHANTAL STILL HAS A WELL DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF 50 TO 60-KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  DESPITE THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE LAST FIX INDICATED A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB.  ALL AVAILABLE NUMERICAL AND SUBJECTIVE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST TOOLS SUGGEST THAT CHANTAL SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BEFORE NEARING THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS SHOULD HAPPEN AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE\r\nSTORM DECREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nCHANTAL HAS NOT DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AT ALL AND IT IS STILL\r\nRACING WESTWARD AT 22 KNOTS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS\r\nA TROUGH MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A\r\nDECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM.  MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE\r\nCHANTAL OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nNCEP/AVN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH MOVES CHANTAL NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  THE AVN MODEL HAS BEEN\r\nREMARKABLY GOOD SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH PREVIOUS STORMS AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED NORTHWARD LATER ON.\r\n\r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT...IN 3 OR 4 DAYS...THERE WILL BE A \r\nHURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 15.6N  76.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N  79.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N  82.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N  85.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  87.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-08-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/20.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED....BRINGING THE CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY\r\nAROUND 48 HOURS.  THE AVIATION MODEL FORECAST SHOWED A RATHER LARGE\r\nTRACK SHIFT TO THE LEFT FROM THE 12Z TO 18Z RUN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO SPUTTER AWAY...TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED.\r\nTHERE IS A RECENT LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK WELL ORGANIZED.  A RECENT RECON FLIGHT\r\nFOUND 58 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND NOT \r\nMUCH WIND ANYWHERE ELSE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. \r\n FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT QUITE \r\nBRING THE WIND TO HURRICANE FORCE BEFORE LANDFALL...IT DOES FORECAST \r\n60 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST WAS 75 KNOTS \r\nAT 48 HOURS AND I AM BACKING OFF SLIGHTLY TO 70 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS... \r\nBY WHICH TIME THE CENTER MAY BE INLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BELIZE AND\r\nFOR MEXICO ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 15.7N  78.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.3N  81.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.2N  84.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  86.2W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N  87.8W    70 KTS...JUST INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N  90.5W    45 KTS...BACK OVER WATER\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND 62 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT IN THE \r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT AROUND 0615Z...WITH A DROP IN PRESSURE DOWN TO \r\n997 MB.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT FROM TAFB TO \r\n45 TO 50 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE FIX \r\nPOSITIONS WERE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OR OUTSIDE THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...WHEREAS THE RECON POSITIONS PLACE THE CENTER FURTHER \r\nINTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN DEEP \r\nCONVECTION SINCE 06Z...THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  \r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND IS IMPROVING \r\nELSEWHERE AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS.  \r\nTHE CENTER WAS RELOATCED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE PAST 4 \r\nRECON POSITIONS.  EARLIER SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES WERE WELL TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE COME CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL RECON FIXES OF \r\nLATE.  OWING TO THE MUCH SLOWER SPEED OF MOVEMENT...THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK SPEED WAS ALSO DECREASED AND ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE \r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICAL TRCAK IS FASTER \r\nTHAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SOME OF WHICH BRING THE SPEED \r\nDOWN TO LESS THAN 8 KT BY 48 TO 72 HOURS.  00Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM \r\nMERIDA INDICATES 24-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS OF 20 TO 50 METERS FROM 700 \r\nTHROUGH 150 MB...WHICH INDICATES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MID- AND \r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY AS A TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED \r\nOVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH MAY ALLOW CHANTAL TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE \r\nTHAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.  NOTE...WHEN TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONES RAPIDLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THAT IMPLIES A SHARP \r\nCHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW AND OFTENTIMES IS FOLLOWED BY BRIEF \r\nERRATIC MOTION.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EMBEDDED FURTHER IN THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...STEADY INTENSIFCATION SHOULD OCCUR.  BASED ON THE \r\nHEIGHT FALLS AT MERIDA...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO DECREASE \r\nAND THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD BE ENHANCED.  IF RECON FINDS LOWER \r\nPRESSURE AND A DEVELOPING EYEWALL AT THE NEXT FIX TIME AROUND \r\n12Z...THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE BE INCREASED AND \r\nWE COULD BE DEALING WITH SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG \r\nTHE YUCATAN COAST IN 48 TO 60 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 15.5N  78.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N  80.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N  82.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.6N  84.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.9N  86.3W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  89.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME LOCATING THE CENTER\r\nOF CHANTAL.  THEY REPORTED A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE\r\nWINDS...AND FIXED A CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN MASS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SHOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOVE\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WERE REPORTED IN THE STRONG CONVECTION.  HOWEVER THE\r\nLOWEST PRESSURE WAS 1004 MB...AND GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...I AM RELUCTANT TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER CHANTAL WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICALLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A REDUCTION\r\nOF SHEAR...AND STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THERE IS \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL MOTION.  BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  THE \r\nLATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE \r\nEASTERN U.S. MOVING EASTWARD AND BYPASSING CHANTAL DURING THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A RIDGE BUILDING JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY \r\nCLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE NCEP AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL \r\nAS THE DEEP/MEDIUM BAM TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE \r\nNORTHERN COAST OF BELIZE TO NORTHEAST YUCATAN. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 15.5N  80.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N  82.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.7N  84.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N  86.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N  88.5W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 23.5N  91.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001\r\n \r\nCHANTAL IS IN BAD SHAPE AT THE PRESENT TIME.  THE CENTER...SUCH AS\r\nIT IS...APPEARS TO BE LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO POORLY ORGANIZED...\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING.  NEVERTHELESS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME\r\nMORE FAVORABLE OVER CHANTAL DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING...COMMENCING\r\nTOMORROW...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS OR GFDL \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...290/14...IS RATHER UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE\r\nPOOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER.  THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW PROMINENT 500 RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN\r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK THAN EARLIER MODEL\r\nRUNS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST AVN AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 16.5N  82.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N  83.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N  86.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N  90.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.5N  92.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2001\r\n \r\nCHANTAL REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH ITS \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER ABOUT 100 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CLOSEST DEEP \r\nCONVECTION.  FOR A TIME IT LOOKED AS THOUGH A CENTER MIGHT HAVE BEEN \r\nFORMING ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT AN AIR FORCE \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW THROUGH THIS LOCATION AT 700 MB AND \r\nCOULD NOT DETECT ANY PRESENCE OF A CIRCULATION THERE.  THEY DID \r\nREPORT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT...WHICH USING TYPICAL SURFACE \r\nREDUCTION FACTORS WOULD GIVE 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...A \r\nDROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED \r\nSURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 38 KT.  AS EVIDENCED BY THIS OB AND A LONG \r\nHISTORY OF ILL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTERS...CHANTAL IS NOT EFFECTIVELY \r\nTRANSPORTING MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nLOWERED A BIT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WITH THE CENTER SO REMOVED FROM THE \r\nCONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ENVISION CHANTAL STRENGTHENING \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE \r\n00Z RAOB FROM MERIDA...WHOSE 200 MB WIND SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nSHEAR IS NOT ABATING AS QUICKLY AS FORECAST BY THE AVN.\r\n\r\nTHE RECON FIXES CONTINUE THE EARLIER TREND OF BEING TO THE SOUTH OF \r\nTHE VISIBLE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL...SUCH THAT THE WIND CENTER LIES \r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER.  IT IS THE VORTICITY \r\nCENTER THAT WE ARE TRACKING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/16.  THERE \r\nIS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING.  GLOBAL MODELS \r\nESTABLISH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT SHOULD KEEP \r\nCHANTAL...IF IT SURVIVES...ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. \r\nSHOULD CHANTAL RECOVER IN THE SOUTHERN GULF...A SLOWING OF THE \r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 17.1N  83.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.8N  85.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.8N  87.8W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.8N  89.7W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  91.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  94.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2001\r\n\r\nEARLIER RECON DATA INDICATED CHANTAL REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH \r\nMULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW \r\nPRESSURE.  HOWEVER...DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG...THE RECON AIRCRAFT \r\nPASSED THROUGH A BETTER-DEFINED CIRCULATION NEAR 17.0N 83.9W AT \r\n0523Z.  THIS CIRCULATION ALSO HAD A 30 KT WIND MAX ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nIT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER \r\nHAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THAT CIRCULATION. BASED ON A COMBINATION \r\nOF THE RECON WIND DATA AND THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS NOTED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY...THE 06Z SYNOPTIC AND ADVISORY POSITIONS WERE KEPT A LITTLE \r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN THE LAST RECON VORTEX LOCATION.  THIS IS ALSO \r\nMAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH EXTRAPOLATED POSITIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY MOTION.  RECON ALSO FOUND A 61 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND \r\nON THE OUTBOUND LEG AT 0552Z...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 50 KT \r\nSURFACE WIND.  HOWEVER...THIS WIND REPORT WAS JUST NORTH OF THE \r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13 BASED ON A BLEND OF RECON AND \r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES.  CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A \r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 TO 24 HOURS \r\nALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN TAKING CHANTAL SLOWLY ACROSS \r\nTHE YUCATAN AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS \r\nAND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD AFTERWARDS.  THE OFFICAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE \r\nUKMET AND AVN TRACK FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nCHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED STATE FOR THE NEXT 36 \r\nHOURS OR SO...AND LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS \r\nFORECAST. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR CHANTAL TO REACH MINIMAL \r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN AS  \r\nINCREASING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ON THE WEST SIDE MAY HELP TO \r\nTIGHTEN UP THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 17.3N  84.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.1N  86.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N  88.5W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.6N  90.3W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.3N  92.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  94.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2001\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY BETTER-ORGANIZED \r\nSYSTEM THAN 24 HOURS AGO...RECON DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS STILL \r\nDISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  WHEREAS \r\nTHE SHEAR MAY FINALLY BE RELAXING...THERE IS LITTLE TIME FOR \r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COASTLINE.  HOWEVER ONLY \r\nA MODEST INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS COULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS \r\nNEAR HURRICANE FORCE.  AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE STATUS OF CHANTAL TODAY.  ASSUMING \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THERE WILL BE \r\nANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.  WHEREAS THIS FEATURE WILL\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nTHIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE INFLUENTIAL ENOUGH TO PULL CHANTAL\r\nNORTHWARD.  IN FACT...THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST NEEDS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENSEMBLE...WHICH\r\nSHOWS A FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT OF THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 17.7N  86.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.4N  88.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N  90.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.0N  91.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.7N  93.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 21.0N  95.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2001\r\n \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR\r\nFORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS\r\nBECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED.  ON SATELLITE...THE SYSTEM HAS A\r\nCOMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN AND THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...WHICH HAD BEEN PRACTICALLY NON-EXISTENT...HAS\r\nBECOME DISTINCT.  OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE STRONGEST WINDS\r\nARE NOW CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 50 KNOTS IN THE STRONG CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER\r\nCHANTAL...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY SHEAR TENDENCY ANALYSES BY THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS SHOWN ON THEIR WEB SITE.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TIME FOR CHANTAL TO AVAIL ITSELF OF\r\nMORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN.\r\nHOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.  \r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL BUILDS A 500 MB ANTICYLONE OVER THE NORTHERN \r\nGULF LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE A \r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A \r\nBLEND OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nNHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 18.1N  87.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.9N  88.9W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N  90.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N  92.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 20.5N  93.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N  96.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2001\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING SHOW\r\nTHAT CHANTAL WAS STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL.  A NOAA P-3\r\nRESEARCH MISSION WAS ALSO VERY HELPFUL THIS EVENING...RELEASING\r\nNUMEROUS GPS DROPWINDSONDES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF CHANTAL.  A\r\nSONDE IN THE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 2144Z GAVE 58 KT\r\nAT THE SURFACE...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 71 KT.  THESE\r\nOBS SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT.  RIGHT AT LANDFALL...AND SHORTLY\r\nAFTER THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM...THERE WAS A BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  ONE COULD SPECULATE THAT\r\nCHANTAL CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AFTER THE LAST FIX...BUT IT IS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT ANY SOLID DATA SUPPORTING A HIGHER INTENSITY WILL\r\nCOME TO LIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  BOTH THE \r\nAVN AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN \r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  GIVEN THIS...AND THE RECENT TENDENCY OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS TO BE TOO ENTHUSIASTIC IN DEVELOPING THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE \r\nOVER THE STORM...I AM NOT VERY CONFIDENT THAT CHANTAL WILL \r\nRESTRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 18.4N  88.3W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N  90.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.6N  91.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 20.1N  93.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N  95.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  97.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CHETUMAL AND BELIZE CITY...ALONG WITH \r\nRADAR REPORTS FROM BELIZE...INDICATE THAT CHANTAL EITHER STALLED OR \r\nDEVELOPED A NEW CENTER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY POSITION.  IN FACT...THE 08Z RADAR DATA INDICATED AN \r\nEYEWALL TRYING TO CLOSE OFF BETWEEN SAN PEDRO AND COROZAL.  \r\nSATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED \r\nOVER THIS NEW RADAR CENTER...SO THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED \r\nBACK TO THE EAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY \r\nBASED ON WIND REPORTS RECEIVED FROM NORTHERN BELIZE AND NEAR \r\nCHETUMAL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/03 BASED ON THE LAST 3 RADAR \r\nPOSITIONS.  DESPITE THE NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION THIS MORNING... \r\nTHERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. THE\r\nAVN AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF CHANTAL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT \r\nA LITTLE SLOWER TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.  \r\nIT APPEARS THAT ALL OF THE MODELS UNDERESTIMATED THE STRENGTH OF THE \r\nHIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. SOUTHWEST \r\nINTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY CONTINUE THIS \r\nMORNING...BUT A RESUMPTION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK APPEARS TO BE \r\nIN ORDER GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF \r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE CHANTAL REACHES THE GULF OF \r\nMEXICO...ESPECIALLY IF CHANTAL REMAINS OVER THE YUCATAN LONGER THE \r\nOFFICIAL IS INDICATING.\r\n\r\nNOTE...A SPECIAL THANKS IS IN ORDER FOR THE BELIZE MET OFFICE FOR \r\nPROVIDING SUCH TIMELY AND ACCURATE RADAR REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 18.3N  88.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.7N  89.3W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 19.1N  90.2W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 19.4N  91.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N  92.3W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N  94.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001\r\n\r\nRADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BELIZE CITY INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS\r\nRESUMED A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE MORNING...AND\r\nUP TO 13Z HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE.  INDEED...EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE CENTER IS OVER LAND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS THE BEST\r\nTHE STORM HAS EVER HAD.  GIVEN THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nLOWERED ONLY TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE MEANDERING DURING THE NIGHT...THE INITIAL MOTION SOMEWHAT\r\nIS UNCERTAIN WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE 285/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY \r\nSHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nWHICH MAY HAVE WEAKENED THE RIDGE NORTH OF CHANTAL AND ALLOWED IT\r\nTO SLOW DOWN.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE\r\nEASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING INCREASING NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MAJOR DIFFERENCES ON SPEED WITH\r\nTHE BAM MODELS AND NHC98 MUCH FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND NHC98UK.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE FASTER THAN AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...CLOSEST IN SPEED TO THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nCHANTAL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WHILE OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOR ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD GIVE CHANTAL A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN.\r\nHOWEVER...A CERTAIN SKEPTICISM IS NECESSARY ABOUT THESE FORECASTS\r\nGIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND RECENT\r\nOVERFORECASTING OF SUCH RIDGING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE\r\nTHAT CHANTAL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE MEXICAN \r\nGULF COAST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF THE STORM\r\nIT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT AGAIN STOPPED SHORT OF HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.\r\n \r\nNOTE...A SPECIAL THANKS IS AGAIN IN ORDER FOR THE BELIZE MET\r\nOFFICE FOR PROVIDING SUCH TIMELY AND ACCURATE RADAR REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 18.5N  89.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.7N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 19.1N  91.7W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N  93.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.8N  95.3W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N  98.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chantal","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION IS\r\nOVER THE CARIBBEAN WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nTHUS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nSTRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nWITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD\r\nWITH TIME...WITH CHANTAL FOLLOWING A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK TO ITS SOUTH.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGAIN AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN SPEED NOTED EARLIER\r\nCONTINUE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE SINCE CHANTAL SEEMS TO BE MORE OR LESS ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nCHANTAL SHOULD REMAIN A DEPRESSION WHILE OVER YUCATAN AS THE \r\nCIRCULATION IS NOW TOO WELL DEFINED FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE\r\nDURING THE TIME IT WILL BE OVER LAND.  THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN SHOWING\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW DURING THE DAY...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR AT LEAST\r\nSOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER\r\nTHE WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nPACKAGE...CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER AND RAPID WEAKENING\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL.  IF THE UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE FORECAST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ACTUALLY DEVELOPS...CHANTAL MAY MAKE YET ANOTHER\r\nBID TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS\r\nOF THE MEXICAN GULF COAST BASED ON THE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION\r\nAFTER CHANTAL MOVES OFFSHORE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 18.7N  89.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.9N  90.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.3N  92.4W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.6N  94.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.8N  96.2W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N  99.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chantal","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2001\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHANTAL HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH THIS \r\nEVENING.  THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DETERIORATED \r\nMARKEDLY...WITH A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHEARING OFF TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT WILL BE LEFT WHEN THE CENTER \r\nEMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...IF IN FACT IT DOES.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIX...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH MUCH OF IT SEEMINGLY AFFECTED BY THE TERRAIN OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.  THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE AVN AND GFDL...WHICH DO NOT\r\nBRING CHANTAL INTO THE GULF.  IF CHANTAL DOES EMERGE OVER WATER...A\r\nSTRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE U.S. GULF STATES SHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON\r\nA GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE NEXT\r\nTWO DAYS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF \r\nMEXICO.  EVEN THE AVN NOW DEVELOPS ONLY A VERY SMALL UPPER-LEVEL \r\nAREA FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER CHANTAL...AND THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY AS THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 18.8N  90.4W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N  91.5W    25 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N  93.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N  94.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N  97.0W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chantal","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2001\r\n \r\nCHANTAL REMAINS OVER LAND NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST OF WESTERN \r\nYUCATAN.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NM ENE OF CARMEN \r\nMEXICO...WHILE A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD \r\nOUT OF NORTHERN GUATEMALA IS LOCATED OVER CARMEN.  MEANWHILE...DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED FARTHER EAST OVER BELIZE AND EASTERN \r\nYUCATAN.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...CHANTAL REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.\r\n\r\nA ROUGH ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7...BASED MAINLY ON \r\nEXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 24 HOURS \r\nHAS CONTINUED WITH THE 06Z MODEL RUNS.  THE GFDL NOW TAKES CHANTAL \r\nOVER THE GULF AND THEN NORTHWARD TO NEAR TAMPICO IN 72 HOURS... \r\nWHILE THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS DRIVE THE CYCLONE WEST INTO THE GULF \r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN CHANTAL SOUTHWARD INTO MEXICO \r\nAFTERWARDS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DIGGING MID- AND \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS \r\nBOTTOMED OUT NOW.  HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BENEATH THE UPPER \r\nTROUGH SHOULD STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CHANTAL ON A GENERAL \r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY \r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE TO THE \r\nSOUTHWEST AND INLAND IF CHANTAL RE-INTENSIFIES AND BECOMES A \r\nVERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AGAIN.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE AVN-UKMET CONSENSUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERLY DRY AIR INTRUSION \r\nOVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF CHANTAL HAS \r\nSTARTED TO PUSH MORE WESTWARD.  THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE \r\nDEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE YUCATAN AND NW CARIBBEAN SEA TO MOVE \r\nWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH WOULD FAVOR THE \r\nRE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES \r\nBACK OVER WATER.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON \r\nWHERE THE CENTER OF CHANTAL ACTUALLY TRACKS.  IF IT REMAINS CLOSER \r\nTO LAND...THEN ANY SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL BE UNLIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 19.0N  91.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 19.1N  92.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.1N  94.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.7N  95.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.7N  95.3W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chantal","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM CDT WED AUG 22 2001\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF CHANTAL...\r\nASSUMING IT IS THE SAME CENTER WE SAW YESTERDAY...IS LOCATED\r\nWELL SOUTHWEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES JUST SOUTHEAST OF VILLAHERMOSA. \r\nWITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING TO THE NORTH...IT WILL BE NEARLY\r\nIMPOSSIBLE FOR THE CENTER TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM\r\nTHIS POSITION.  THUS...CHANTAL IS NOW EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER\r\nLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FOUND 25 TO 35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE...AND THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO\r\n24 HR AS THE CENTER DISSIPATES.  THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL\r\nALSO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON CHANTAL UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 17.7N  92.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.6N  93.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-08-22 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nTROPICAL WAVE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FOUND A 1010 MB CENTER\r\nWITH 65 KT 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\nTHE WAVE IS UPGRADED DIRECTLY TO TROPICAL STORM DEAN BASED ON THIS\r\nDATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE IFFY DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE\r\nOF THE CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/22.  DEAN IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM SHOULD CONTINUE THE PRESENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD RECURVE DEAN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nAS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DEAN IS EXPOSED ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRONG\r\nCONVECTION...AND MUCH OF THE CURRENT WIND IS LIKELY DUE TO THE RAPID\r\nMOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR DECREASING\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL\r\nFOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR PERSISTS...FOLLOWED BY\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE BAHAMAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1800Z 19.2N  65.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 20.1N  68.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.7N  71.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 23.2N  72.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 24.6N  72.4W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.4N  71.7W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING\r\nDEAN INDICATE A SMALL CENTER WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB AND\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KT.  THE CENTER IS EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN\r\nEND OF A CONVECTIVE BAND THAT TRAILS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/20.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  DEAN IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM SHOULD CONTINUE THE PRESENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD SLOW DEAN\r\nAND RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHOULD THIS FORECAST\r\nVERIFY...DEAN WOULD NOT BE A THREAT TO THE MAINLAND UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nWHILE DEAN IS CURRENTLY UNDER SOME WESTERLY SHEAR CAUSED MAINLY\r\nBY STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME STRONG\r\nNORTHERLY FLOW MAY SOON IMPACT THE STORM IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AHEAD OF IT.  SHOULD THE SMALL AND LIKELY\r\nFRAGILE CIRCULATION SURVIVE THE NEXT 12 OR 24 HR...IT WOULD MOVE\r\nUNDER THIS RIDGE AND LIKELY INTENSIFY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS PHILOSOPHY.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nMAKES DEAN A HURRICANE IN 12 HR AND STRENGTHENS IT TO 90 KT BY\r\n72 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 19.5N  66.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.8N  69.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N  71.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 24.2N  72.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 25.5N  72.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 27.5N  71.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2001\r\n\r\nWITHOUT RECON OR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOCATION IS ALMOST \r\nIMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT.  RADAR FROM SAN JUAN IS INCONCLUSIVE...AND A \r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS DEAN AS AN OPEN WAVE.  THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION...MOTION...AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST ARE BASED ALMOST \r\nEXCLUSIVELY ON CONTINUITY FROM LAST-LIGHT SATELLITE TRENDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING TONIGHT.  DEAN IS\r\nCURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...AS A RESULT OF\r\nA SHARP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SYSTEM COUPLED WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES...AND MAY IN FACT NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION.\r\nHOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DEAN SHOULD BE MOVING UNDER AN\r\nUPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT WILL PROVIDE A FLOW MORE IN STEP WITH THE\r\nLOWER STEERING WINDS.  UNLIKE THE RECENT MODEL RUNS WITH\r\nCHANTAL...IN WHICH A FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT WAS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP BUT NEVER REALLY DID...THE UPPER HIGH IS ALREADY IN PLACE\r\nHERE AND DEAN MERELY NEEDS TO MOVE INTO THE RIGHT PLACE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT\r\nSURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...WHICH MAKES DEAN A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS...PRESUMES THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE THE NEXT 12.\r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...AND WITH THE COMPLICATED UPPER FLOW \r\nPATTERNS THE FUTURE PATH OF DEAN WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE \r\nINTENSITY.  A DEEPER SYSTEM COULD MOVE MORE TO THE WEST UNDER THE \r\nUPPER HIGH AND RECURVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY...WHILE A WEAK SYSTEM IS \r\nMORE LIKELY TO HIT THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST SOONER AND \r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.  IN EITHER CASE...DEAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO \r\nBE A THREAT TO THE U.S. MAINLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 20.2N  68.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N  70.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 23.1N  72.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 25.1N  72.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N  72.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 30.5N  69.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF DEAN THIS \r\nMORNING.  LATEST NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN \r\nCIRCULATION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE OVERALL \r\nTHUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.  HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN ALSO \r\nINDICATES THAT THERE ARE TWO OTHER WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATIONS NORTH \r\nOF THE WESTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA AND  OVER WESTERN PUERTO RICO. \r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK LENDS A LITTLE MORE \r\nCREDENCE TOWARD STAYING WITH THE NORTHERNMOST CIRCULATION...AT LEAST \r\nFOR NOW. DEAN COULD ACTUALLY BE AN OPEN WAVE OR BE REFORMING FURTHER \r\nSOUTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE MODELS \r\nREMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TAKING DEAN NORTHWEST AND THEN \r\nNORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS...KEEPING THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT AT 72 HOURS AS THE \r\nTROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE CYCLONE \r\nBY THAT TIME AND LIFT IT MORE NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE \r\nTRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ACTUALLY \r\nSHIFTING MORE WESTWARD...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND MAY BE DISRUPTING \r\nTHE SOUTHERLY INFLOW AND CREATING SOME LEESIDE VORTICES. IT IS NOT \r\nOUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A NEW CENTER COULD FORM FURTHER SOUTH JUST \r\nNORTH OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CAUSING THE \r\nDEEPER CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED FURTHER SOUTH.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. ASSUMING DEAN \r\nREMAINS INTACT AND TRACKS NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...THEN GRADUAL STRENGTHENING \r\nWOULD BE IN ORDER.  THIS IS ALL PREDICATED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT \r\nDEAN IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON WILL BE \r\nOUT LATER THIS MORNING TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 21.1N  69.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 22.3N  71.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 24.1N  72.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 26.1N  72.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 27.9N  71.7W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 32.0N  69.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dean","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 23 2001\r\n\r\nEASY COME...EASY GO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER COULD\r\nNOT LOCATE A CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD SWIRL\r\nOF DEAN.  THE LOWEST PRESSURES IN THE AREA ARE 1013-1014 MB AND THE\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 42 KT TO THE EAST OF THE SWIRL.\r\nDEAN IS THUS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nSMALL CENTER COULD NOT SURVIVE THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR DURING THE\r\nNIGHT AND A DOSE OF UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING 305/15...ALTHOUGH RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.  THE REMAINS\r\nOF DEAN ARE LIKELY TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC\r\nTROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WITH AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT \r\nTHEY MAY MERGE WITH THE TROUGH.  EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nCLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON DEAN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 22.4N  70.2W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n\r\nA SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WGMJ REPORTED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 55 KT...AND A \r\n1004 MB PRESSURE...NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS \r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF DEAN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE \r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A \r\nTROPICAL-TYPE APPEARANCE...AND SINCE THE SHIP OBSERVATION INDICATES \r\nTHAT THE STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER...DEAN IS BEING \r\nRE-DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL STORM.  THE HISTORY OF THE \r\nAFOREMENTIONED SHIP SUGGESTS THAT ITS REPORTED WIND SPEED IS \r\nSOMEWHAT HIGH...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  THE STORM \r\nSHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER WATER IN A DAY OR SO AND IS LIKELY TO \r\nBEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THEN.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS NE...050/16.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS \r\nGENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITHOUT MUCH ACCELERATION FOR THE \r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...OR SOONER...THE \r\nSYSTEM MAY MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 38.3N  61.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 40.0N  59.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 42.0N  55.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 43.5N  51.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 45.0N  47.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 49.0N  40.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER \r\nORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING TO \r\nFORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 KT...T3.0 PLUS... FROM TAFB...AND 45 \r\nKT...T3.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...THE INNER CONVECTIVE \r\nBAND AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTIONC ENTER HAS TIGHTENED UP \r\nCONSIDERABLY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIXES...SO THE INTENSITY WAS \r\nINCREASED. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/16. THERE IS EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE \r\nAMONG THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IN TAKING DEAN ESSENTIALLY TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE \r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE AVN AND THE UKMET MODELS TURN DEAN A LITTLE MORE \r\nNORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES ABSORBED BY AN \r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE \r\nGFDL MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN AND UKMET...ONLY SLOWER.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 \r\nHOURS...THEN FASTER AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AFTER \r\nTHAT.\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS LEFT FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER 26C SSTS.  \r\nAFTER THAT...THE WATER COOLS SHARPLY BELOW 20C NORTH OF 43N \r\nLATITUDE.  DEAN COULD STILL BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE TODAY IF THE \r\nBANDED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND CLOSES OFF \r\nA BANDED EYE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 39.5N  59.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 41.1N  57.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 43.2N  53.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 45.4N  49.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 47.4N  45.6W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 52.0N  37.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS STILL TRYING TO \r\nCLOSE OFF AN EYE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...T3.5... FROM TAFB...AND 45 \r\nKT...T3.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS \r\nINCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES BASED ON THE \r\nAPPEARANCE OF AN INTERMITTENT TIGHT BANDED EYE FEATURE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/20.  EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE \r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH DEAN FORECAST TO MOVE \r\nNORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE \r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE CURRENT MOTION IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK...WHICH IS MAINLY DUE TO THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE \r\nTROUGH UNDERCUTTING DEAN AND LIFTING IT MORE POLEWARD.  HOWEVER... \r\n12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND SATELLITE ANIMATION INDICATE THAT A STRONG \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL JET LIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND \r\nSOUTHEAST CANADA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO TURN DEAN BACK TO THE RIGHT \r\nOF ITS CURRENT MOTION BY 12 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE UKMET-AVN-GFDL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH I CAN NOT RULE OUT A \r\nPOSSIBLE EYE APPEARING AND DEAN BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 6 \r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...TIME IS RAPIDLY RUNNING OUT FOR DEAN TO INTENSIFY \r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 22C SST WATER IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BY \r\n24 HOURS...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS \r\nIT MERGES WITH OR IS ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE LOW \r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 41.3N  58.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 43.5N  56.0W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 45.7N  51.7W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 47.4N  46.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 50.1N  42.9W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 54.0N  36.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/19.  THE VARIOUS TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE \r\nNEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION.  THIS BRINGS THE \r\nCENTER CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  THE FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING AS DEAN MOVES OVER MUCH \r\nCOLDER WATER.  THE COLD WATER SHOULD ALSO CAUSE DEAN TO BECOME \r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 43.2N  57.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 45.4N  54.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 48.2N  50.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 50.2N  46.1W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 53.1N  42.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 56.0N  33.9W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM AST TUE AUG 28 2001\r\n\r\nDEAN HAS SHOWN A DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER NOW DEFINED BY A SWIRL OF LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL CLOUDS EAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ONE NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATION IS FROM\r\nCANADIAN BUOY 44141...WHICH AT 05Z REPORTED 1004.3 MB AND 18 FT SEAS\r\nABOUT 55 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nDEAN HAS TURNED SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST 6 HR.  THE 12 HR\r\nMOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS 045/20...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS\r\nCLOSER TO 060/20.  DEAN IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND\r\nALMOST ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A CONTINUED EAST-NORTHEAST OR\r\nNORTHEAST MOTION FOR THE FORSEEABLE FUTURE.  THE ONE OUTLIER IS THE \r\nNHC 98...WHICH TURNS DEAN SHARPLY SOUTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION UNTIL DEAN\r\nIS ABSORBED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND BY 72 HR.  HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTS THE\r\nTRACK WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD.\r\n \r\nDEAN IS ALREADY OVER 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN AN\r\nEASTWARD TURN WILL NOT BRING IT OVER ANY WARMER WATER.  THUS...\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING AND TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED.  THE MAIN EFFECT OF A MORE EASTERLY TRACK WOULD BE TO\r\nREDUCE THE CHANCE OF DEAN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER LOW...\r\nTHUS PROLONGING ITS LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 43.8N  54.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 45.4N  51.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 47.8N  46.6W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 50.3N  41.8W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 53.0N  37.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 28 2001\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS WEAKEND AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  DEEP \r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NON-EXISTENT AND MODERATE \r\nCONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION ALSO CONTINUES TO \r\nWEAKEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF A SATELLITE \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...T2.5... AND A CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE OF 55 KT...CI3.5...FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/20.  DEAN HAS TURNED BACK TO THE \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS SPLIT AND DROPPED TO THE \r\nSOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE SHORTWAVE RIDGING HAS INCREASED TO THE \r\nWEST.  THE BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER \r\nSOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD ACT TO TURN DEAN BACK \r\nON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK \r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND CLOSE TO \r\nTHE AVN AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nDEAN IS OVER SUB-20C SST WATER WITH COLDER WATER AHEAD OF THE \r\nSYSTEM.  AS SUCH...RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR WITH \r\nONLY SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY OR \r\nMERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTH OF GREENLAND AFTER 36 TO 48 \r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM DEAN.  ADDITIONAL AND \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS \r\nFORECAST ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER \r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 44.3N  52.2W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 45.6N  48.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 48.2N  44.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 51.1N  39.2W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 54.3N  33.8W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2001\r\n \r\nA DRIFTING BUOY JUST WEST OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE REPORTED A \r\nNORTHWEST WIND AT 15 KNOTS AND A 1008.7 MB PRESSURE A COUPLE OF \r\nHOURS AGO.  ALSO SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP \r\nCONVECTION IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NORTH-SOUTH BANDING FEATURE.  \r\nTHESE ARE THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW IN THE \r\nCENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO A DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/23.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS \r\nA 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW TRACKS BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND \r\nNORTH WITH THE GFDL THE LEFT-MOST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nFOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL.  THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASES TO 13 KNOTS \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS UNDER \r\nMODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS \r\nAGGRESSIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO A CONSERVATIVE 55 KNOTS IN \r\n72 HOURS WHICH OF COURSE COULD BE TOO LITTLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 12.9N  35.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.6N  38.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 14.3N  41.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.2N  44.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.2N  47.3W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.8N  52.5W    55 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2001\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHT WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOP \r\nTEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB \r\nRESPECTIVELY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL A DEPRESSION WITH \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LOOKING HEALTHY \r\nAND ANOTHER GOOD BURST OF CONVECTION COULD STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO \r\nA TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE AVN\r\nMODEL FORECASTS A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nREMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW TRACKS BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH THE GFDL THE\r\nLEFT-MOST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL MODEL AND \r\nIS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 64 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS\r\nUNDER MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE IN 72 \r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 13.1N  36.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.7N  39.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.7N  42.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.6N  45.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.6N  48.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N  54.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2001\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM\r\nERIN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...T2.5...FROM TAFB AND 45 KT...T3.0... \r\nFROM SAB.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SO EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT STAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17.  DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS...\r\nTHE MOTION HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST AT 270 DEGREES.\r\nHOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE WHERE THE ACTUAL CENTER OF\r\nERIN IS LOCATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS USING INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...I CHOSE TO KEEP THE CENTER A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\nWHILE IT IS NORMAL PROCEDURE TO REMAIN SOMEWHERE INSIDE THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE UKMET...AVN...AS WELL\r\nAS THE BAM MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A SHARP POLEWARD BIAS BASED ON\r\nMODEL TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS\r\nALREADY WELL SOUTH OF THE UKMET POSITIONS FROM THE 01/12Z AND 02/00Z\r\nMODELS RUNS.  THE 00Z GFDL RUN LOSES ERIN IN 24 HOURS AS DOES THE\r\nAVN AND...TO A CERTAIN DEGREE...SO DOES THE UKMET.  ONLY THE NOFAPS\r\nMODEL SEEMS TO HVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ERIN OVERALL.  GIVEN HOW WELL\r\nDEVELOPED THE CYCLONE APPEARS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MORE\r\nRECENT WESTWARD MOTION...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK\r\nAPPEARS TO BE IN ORDER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK IN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE 01/18Z GFDL \r\nTRACK. HOWEVER...IF THE WESTWARD TRACK CONTINUES...THEN THE FORECAST \r\nTRACKWILL HAVE TO BE BROUGHT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH ON THE NEXT \r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE PRESENT CIRCULAR OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE LACK OF ANY \r\nSIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF ERIN...A TYPICAL RATE OF ONE \r\nT-NUMBER PER DAY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.  AFTER 48 \r\nHOURS...THE AVN AND UKMET DEVELOP SOUTHERLY 20 TO 30 KT UPPER-LEVEL \r\nFLOW AHEAD OF OR OVER ERIN. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THIS FLOW \r\nWILL BE PART OF THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT OR JUST PART OF THE \r\nOUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF ERIN.  THE INTENSITY WAS FLATTENED OUT \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE SOUTHERLY WINDS PRODUCING \r\nSHEAR ON ERIN LIKE THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING. \r\nHOWEVER...BY THE TIME ERIN REACHES THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION... \r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED WHICH WOULD ALLOW \r\nIT TO FIGHT OFF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 13.4N  38.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.9N  40.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N  43.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 15.1N  46.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.8N  49.1W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N  54.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/15.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS A \r\nSUBSTANTIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REFLECT THIS WITH TRACK HEADINGS \r\nALL BETWEEN ABOUT 290 AND 310 DEGREE HEADINGS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nBUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE MODEL \r\nTRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE THERE IS A GOOD PATTERN OF BANDING AND \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT THAT WELL \r\nORGANIZED.  THE MOST AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODEL IS SHIPS \r\nWHICH BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 75 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 13.7N  39.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 14.3N  41.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 15.1N  44.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N  47.2W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.8N  49.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N  54.5W    75 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 280/15.  THE 12Z AVIATION \r\nMODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH 72 \r\nHOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REFLECT THIS WITH TRACK HEADINGS\r\nALL BETWEEN ABOUT 290 AND 310 DEGREE HEADINGS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF \r\nTHE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS \r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SEVERAL OF THE MODELS \r\nSUGGEST RECURVATURE FROM AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES \r\nMOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST...BUT ONLY AFTER 72 \r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED STAYS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB.  THE AFGWC ESTIMATE IS 55 KNOTS.  THE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED ON INFRARED IMAGES...BUT \r\nTHERE IS DECENT BANDING AND OUTFLOW.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF \r\nSLIGHTLY AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL INCREASE TO 69 KNOTS AT 72 HOURS \r\nCOMPARED TO 75 KNOTS SIX HOURS AGO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 14.1N  41.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.7N  43.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.4N  46.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.1N  48.7W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N  51.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N  56.0W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2001\r\n\r\nERIN HAS FAILED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...IN SPITE OF RATHER \r\nHEALTHY-LOOKING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.  IR \r\nIMAGES SHOWED A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR...OR JUST NORTH \r\nOF...THE ESTIMATED CENTER...BUT THE INNER-CORE OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.  THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 15 DEGREES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ERIN...I.E. IN THE PATH \r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CUT OFF FROM THIS TROUGH...IN THE VICINITY OF \r\n21N 55W...WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO \r\nSUGGESTS THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO HAPPEN.  IF THE LOW IS FAIRLY \r\nLARGE IN COMPARISON TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND DOES NOT MOVE \r\nMUCH...THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER ERIN.  \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST \r\nWINDS...SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN THE SHEAR BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PREVENT A \r\nMODEST AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG \r\nWITH THIS IDEA.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE EXPLICIT \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO \r\nHAVE SOME SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY TRENDS...SHOWS ERIN \r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT OBVIOUS.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2320Z\r\nSUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  HOWEVER...TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE POSITION ESTIMATE PROVIDED BY\r\nTAFB.  THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/14.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERIN CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING\r\nMECHANISM.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.    THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE ONLY EXCEPTION/OUTLIER IS THE GFDL MODEL...\r\nWHICH IS A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 14.8N  42.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.4N  44.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 16.3N  47.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 18.2N  52.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  56.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE EARLY THIS \r\nMORNING. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE SYSTEM \r\nORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME \r\nDISRUPTED SLIGHTLY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A \r\nBLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT... \r\nCI3.0...FROM TAFB AND 55 KT...CI3.5...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/14.  THE CENTER IS NOT EASY\r\nTO DETERMINE FROM INFRARED IMAGERY AND WAS PLACED IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT OF THE LARGE BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH POSITION ESTIMATES FROM NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AND IS ALSO\r\nALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA\r\nINDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT\r\nVERTICALLY ALIGNED AND THAT OCCASIONALLY THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nHAS PUSHED OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE RESULT IS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THAT LOOKS GOOD AT FIRST GLANCE...BUT WHICH STILL\r\nHAS A DISORGANIZED INNER CORE REGION.  IN SPITE OF THE LATTER...THE\r\nLATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON TAKING ERIN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE UKMET MODEL STILL HAS\r\nA SIGNIFICANT RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS\r\nBEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH VERY LITTLE DEVIATION BETWEEN\r\nSUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING OFF THE RIDGE ALONG 60W LONGITUDE IN 72 HOURS IS\r\nEXPECTED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THIS\r\nMAY ALLOW ERIN TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND IS BETWEEN THE NOGAPS MODEL AND AN AVN-GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE SURROUNDING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEUTRAL\r\nAS FAR AS INTENSIFICATION IS CONCERNED.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nAND THE AVN MODEL ARE INDICATING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE ACROSS THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS AS ERIN MOVES CLOSER TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO BE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO.\r\nTHEREFORE... ONLY SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 15.3N  43.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N  45.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 16.9N  48.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.8N  51.2W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 18.7N  53.6W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N  57.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16 BASED ON LOCATING A LOW LEVEL \r\nCLOUD CENTER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS \r\nUNCHANGED.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS AN EAST/WEST RIDGE TO \r\nPERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS \r\nRESPOND WITH A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 72 HOUR WITH \r\nDIRECTION OF MOTION VARYING BETWEEN 290 AND 320 DEGREES.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ON \r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.  ONLY THE GFDL IS LEFT OF \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nERIN LOOKS RAGGED THIS MORNING WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER \r\nDISPLACE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CDO FEATURE.  THE CDO CLOUD TOPS ARE \r\nALSO WARMING.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KNOTS...BASED ON DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  A DRIFTING BUOY \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A NORTH WIND AT 20 \r\nKNOTS AND 1008.4 MB AT 11Z.  THE BUOY HAD 31 KNOTS AT 10Z.  THE \r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST OF \r\nTHE CENTER.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSIS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IS 22 KNOTS \r\nDECREASING TO 14 KNOTS AT 36 HOURS SO THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND TO 70 KNOTS \r\nIN 72 HOURS COMPARED TO 66 KNOTS FROM THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 16.3N  46.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 17.0N  48.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.9N  51.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.9N  53.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 19.9N  55.8W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.0N  59.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL \r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME SCENARIO...AN EAST/WEST RIDGE NORTH OF \r\nTHE STORM  FORCING A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  AN \r\nAMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO ABOUT 60 \r\nDEGREES WEST IN 72 HOURS WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW \r\nA LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS \r\nAND THE AVIATION MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND \r\nTHE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWITH THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED \r\nCENTER FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST... ERIN HAS WEAKENED.  \r\nTHIS IS CONFIRMED BY A DRIFTING BUOY WHICH THE CENTER HAS PASSED \r\nOVER.  THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED BY THE BUOY WERE 31 KNOTS ALONG \r\nWITH A 1003.9 MINIMUM PRESSURE.  THE BUOY HAS NOT YET REPORTED FROM \r\nUNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS ARE NEAR \r\n40 KNOTS UNDER THIS CONVECTION.  THE CONVECTION HAD BEEN WARMING \r\nUNTIL THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHEN A NEW BURST BEGAN TO FORM \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS.  \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 63 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS WITH \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR 15 KNOTS OR LESS.  THE GFDL MODEL IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE \r\nWITH 103 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND AVIATION MODEL SHOW \r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING. SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE 60 \r\nKNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  SOME OF MY COLLEAGUES DO NOT THINK ERIN WILL \r\nRECOVER FROM THE SHEARING THAT HAS OCCURRED.  THEY MAY BE RIGHT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 16.4N  47.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 16.9N  50.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 17.7N  53.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.8N  55.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 20.2N  58.1W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.5N  60.5W    60 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2001\r\n\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED \r\nNEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE \r\nOBSCURING THE CENTER.  SUCH BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT ALWAYS \r\nCORRESPOND TO INTENSIFICATION.  IN FACT...A SIMILAR EVENT WAS \r\nOBSERVED LAST NIGHT...JUST BEFORE ERINS STRUCTURE DETERIORATED \r\nMARKEDLY.  THE COLD-TOPPED CLOUDS HAVE AN AMORPHOUS SHAPE...AND \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT INCREASED.  THEREFORE \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS.  THE  SHEAR OVER ERIN HAS \r\nBEEN LARGELY PRODUCED BY STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW AND \r\nMODERATE...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY...FLOW ALOFT.  LATEST WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGES SHOW A CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 21N 58W...AND THIS \r\nFEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE.  UNLESS THIS LOW BEGINS TO MOVE \r\nFARTHER AWAY FROM ERIN...OR WEAKEN...THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE \r\nUPPER LOW SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\nINTERESTINGLY THE NCEP GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL SHOWS THE UPPER LOW \r\nDISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THIS MODEL HAS A HISTORY \r\nOF WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW TOO QUICKLY.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR WILL \r\nABATE LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT IS CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nMOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...285/16.  ERIN CONTINUES \r\nTO BE STEERED BY A SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A \r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. \r\nCOAST IN A DAY OR SO SHOULD WEAKEN THIS RIDGE A BIT.  THE TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY BENDING ERINS HEADING GENTLY TO \r\nTHE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT REMAINS BIASED \r\nTOWARDS THE SOUTHERNMOST MODEL TRACKS.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE \r\nLATEST AVN AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 16.9N  49.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 17.5N  51.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.6N  54.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.8N  57.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  59.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 23.0N  61.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS BECOME \r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS DECREASED.  THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM ALL THREE \r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES...AND A 41 KT BUOY REPORT AT 04/02Z ABOUT 40 NM \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS \r\nMORE CIRCULAR IN APPEARANCE NOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 285/16.  DUE TO THE \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION AT NIGHT...THE POSITION WAS \r\nBIASED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE SATELLITE FIXES AND CLOSER TO \r\nTHE PAST TRACK AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  HOWEVER...NIGHTTIME \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD BE MORE TO THE LEFT \r\nOF THE INDICATED POSITION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT BY THE AVN AND NOGAPS \r\nMODELS ON TAKING ERIN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 \r\nHOURS...AND THEN TAKE THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD AFTER \r\nTHAT.  THE GFDL REMAINS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND MOVES ERIN TO \r\nWITHIN 100 NM OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AS A CATEGORY 1 \r\nHURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  IF A MORE WESTWARD CENTER POSITION \r\nBECOMES EVIDENT IN THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES...THEN THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.  \r\nOVERALL...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH \r\n48 HOURS ANS THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BY 72 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL \r\nTROUGH MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND ERODES THE RIDGE \r\nSLIGHTLY... ALLOWING FOR ERIN TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD AND \r\nMAKE A SMALL \"STAIR-STEP\" IN THE TRACK.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS MORNING...THE GENERAL \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME A \r\nLITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW \r\nCURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WEAKENS AND SHIFTS WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 17.2N  51.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.8N  53.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.9N  56.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 20.4N  59.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 21.7N  60.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 23.5N  62.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERIN IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. IT IS ASSUMED....MAINLY BY CONTINUITY...THAT IT \r\nIS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE SHAPELESS CLOUD MASS THAT ACCOMPANIES \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER MAY HAVE TO BE RELOCATED LATER ON \r\nWHEN LONGER VISIBLE LOOPS BECOME AVAILABLE OR IF IT BECOMES EXPOSED. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT WINDS \r\nARE 45 KNOTS.  EVERY AVAILABLE FORECAST TOOL SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR \r\nWILL RELAX AND THAT THE UPPER LOW AHEAD OF ERIN WILL WEAKEN. \r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR \r\nAHEAD AND OVER THE SYSTEM AND THAT THE UPPER LOW IS INTACT AT THIS \r\nTIME.  PREVIOUS FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH \r\nDOUBTFUL... BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS PRESENT...FOR THE SAKE OF \r\nCONTINUITY...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nERIN HAS JOGGED TEMPORARILY WESTWARD ABOUT 16 KNOTS.  THERE IS A\r\nSOLID 500 MB RIGDE TO THE NORTH WHICH SUPPORTS A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER\r\n...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND ERIN SHOULD DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.  BY THEN...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS WITHIN THE TRACK ENSEMBLE.  ONLY THE UK MODEL TURNS ERIN\r\nNORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nTHE TRUTH WILL BE KNOWN TOMORROW WHEN AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 17.1N  53.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N  55.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N  58.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  60.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  61.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 23.0N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nBY OBSERVING THE CIRRUS CLOUDS EMANATING FROM ERIN...ONE CAN SUSPECT\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT.  NEVERTHELESS\r\n...THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SHAPELESS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN INTERMITTENT AND ARC CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE STORM.  IT\r\nMEANS THAT ERIN...AT LEAST...IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  IN\r\nFACT... GIVEN SUCH POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...IT WOULD BE\r\nTEMPTING TO LOWER THE INITIAL INTENSITY BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN AT 45 KNOTS.  MODELS INSIST ON GETTING RID OF THE UPPER-LOW\r\nAHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE PROVIDING A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO.  ASSUMING THAT ERIN SURVIVES THAT\r\nLONG...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.  BOTH SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS INTENSIFY ERIN.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL LOCATION\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS TOO FAR TO THE WEST OR ERIN HAS SLOWED\r\nDOWN.  TAKING A LONGER TERM AVERAGE THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 275/14.  A SOLID 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERIN HAS \r\nBEEN PROVIDING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SO FAR BUT THE RIDGE \r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND CONSEQUENTLY THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL \r\nALSO WEAKEN.  THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FOR ERIN TO DECREASE ITS \r\nFORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WELL NORTH OF \r\nTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A DAY OR TWO. IT THEN SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTHWEST OVER OPEN WATERS. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK COULD BECOME EVEN MORE COMPLICATED IF ERIN SLOWS DOWN \r\nCONSIDERABLY AND MISSES THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO THE \r\nNORTH. \r\n \r\nTHE REAL INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF ERIN WILL BE KNOWN TOMORROW WHEN \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 17.2N  54.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.7N  56.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N  58.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N  60.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N  62.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 23.0N  64.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM...AND THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE THE SOUTHWEST\r\nEDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW AHEAD OF ERIN HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD...TO\r\nNEAR 22N60W.  THE IMAGERY...AND SOUNDING DATA FROM THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS...SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LOW HAS WEAKENED A BIT.\r\nUNLESS THE LOW DISSIPATES...AS THE AVN MODEL HAS BEEN\r\nPREDICTING...ERIN SHOULD BE MOVING CLOSER TO IT DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW THIS WOULD AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  LATER IN THE PERIOD IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...ONLY\r\nVERY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...285/14.  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BE\r\nMOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.  COAST BY EARLY TOMORROW.  AT THIS\r\nTIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WILL ONLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ERIN...BUT OTHERWISE BYPASS THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE AVN\r\nMODEL SHOWS THAT SOME OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF\r\nTHE TROUGH WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND GET TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE\r\nBUILDING OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST BEHIND THE TROUGH.  THIS WEAKNESS\r\nUNDER THE RIDGE COULD COMPLICATE THE FUTURE STEERING PATTERN FOR\r\nERIN...AND MOVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE AVN AND THE GFDL\r\nHURRICANE MODELS...INITIALIZED AT 18Z...HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THOSE MODEL RUNS INITIALIZED AT 12Z.  THIS IS CLOSER TO THE\r\nU.K.  MET OFFICE TRACK...WHICH EARLIER APPEARED TO BE A NORTHWARD\r\nOUTLIER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nAVN/GFDL/U.K. MET CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 17.6N  55.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N  57.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 19.8N  59.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N  61.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  62.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 24.0N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH JUST THE USUAL NOCTURNAL \r\nCONVECTIVE FLAREUP. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BROAD AND ELONGATED \r\nCENTER IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN USING CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA.  \r\nHOWEVER...EXTRAPOLATION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCUALTION IN SSMI AND \r\nTRMM MICROWAVE DATA SUPPORTS KEEPING THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN \r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS KEPT \r\nAT 45 KT EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ERIN \r\nHAS WEAKENED.  RECON WILL BE OUT TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE AROUND \r\n1200Z AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE ACTUAL \r\nSTRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16.  FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS...ERIN \r\nHAS BASICALLY BEEN TRACKING ALONG A 285 DEGREES DIRECTION.  THE MID- \r\nAND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAIN TILTED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST... \r\nBUT THIS NOW APPEARS DUE MORE TO LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR AND NOT \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER MAY RE-DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  \r\nEITHER WAY...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT WINDS WOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE \r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE DIVERGENT NOW \r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE AVN MODEL HAS BECOME THE RIGHT OR EASTERNMOST \r\nMODEL...WHILE THE UKMET MODEL HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK MORE TO THE LEFT AS IT HAS EACH MODEL RUN THE PAST 4 DAYS.  \r\nTHE LATEST NOGAPS MODEL IS NOW THE MOST OMINOUS OF ALL THE MODELS \r\nAND TAKES ERIN MORE WESTWARD AND AIMS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHERN BAHAMAS BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nBETWEEN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL ENSEMBLES AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. NOTE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ERIN COULD GET \r\nTRAPPED IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nAND THE ETA MODEL TO BUILD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 72 HOURS. \r\nTHIS WOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE BECOMING STATIONARY OR TO MOVE \r\nERRATICALLY.\r\n\r\nUNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE MID- \r\nAND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WILL \r\nOCCUR.  NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT  \r\nBY 36 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE \r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.  HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION MAY \r\nEND UP BEING MORE A REUSLT OF THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN AND ALLOWING \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO TUCK IN MORE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 18.3N  57.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.4N  59.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 20.7N  61.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N  62.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 23.2N  64.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 24.5N  65.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n\r\nERIN IS A SHEARED SYSTEM ON A WEAKENING TREND.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE \r\nREACHED THE CENTER OF ERIN THIS MORNING AND FOUND A POORLY DEFINED \r\nCIRCULATION WITH A 1013 MB AND 1015 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE. FLIGHT \r\nLEVEL WINDS WERE 49 KNOTS BUT LIMITED TO THE EAST OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES \r\nWHICH SHOW AN EXPOSED CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.  INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF ERIN IS STILL THERE AND \r\nTHE TENDENCY INDICATED BY MODELS FOR THE UPPER-LOW TO WEAKEN HAS NOT \r\nMATERIALIZED SO FAR.  TO BE CONSERVATIVE ...THE INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nIS KEEPING A 40-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\nHOWEVER...THESE TYPE OF SHEARED SYSTEMS OCCASIONALLY RECOVER...BUT \r\nMOST OF THE TIME DO NOT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL OPTED FOR THE \r\nRECOVERY AND MAKE ERIN A HURRICANE....NOT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\n\r\nERIN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. \r\nTHIS IS BASED ON THE SMALL ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION \r\nPROVIDED BY THE AIRCRAFT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN \r\nAND ERIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A \r\nSIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. MOST \r\nOF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH \r\nOF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ALREADY VERY COMPLICATED SO I WOULD \r\nRATHER NOT SPECULATE ON THE LONGER RANGE AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 18.3N  57.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.6N  59.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.5N  60.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N  62.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  63.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N  64.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nSHEAR HAS DONE IT AGAIN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS\r\nLOST ITS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVED\r\nTHROUGH A PERSISTENTLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...CAUSED BY THE SHEAR\r\nTHAT NEVER RELAXED AS ANTICIPATED.  ERIN NOW HAS THE APPPEARANCE OF\r\nA TROPICAL WAVE WITH SEVERAL WEAK CENTERS OF VORTICITY ALONG ITS\r\nAXIS.  SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR.\r\n\r\nCOMPUTER MODELS STILL INSIST ON REGENERATION...BUT THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE ALREADY TOO DETERIORATED FOR REDEVELOPMENT.\r\nNEVERTHERLESS...IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND IF\r\nNECESSARY...AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS READY TO CHECK IT.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF ERIN WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 19.0N  58.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z   DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING OVER ERIN'S REMNANTS AND FOUND A\r\nPOORLY DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL IN RAINBANDS. THIS IS A NEW CENTER WHICH HAS FORMED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF WHERE THE OLD ONE DISSIPATED AND WITHIN THE AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVENTION AND MID-LEVEL ROTATION. HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO THE\r\nNORTH. THE SHEAR IS FINALLY RELAXING AND THE WATER IS WARM...SO ERIN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE POSITION OF THE NEW CENTER DOES NOT REPRESENT A TRUE MOTION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT IT IS NOW MOVING SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN WEAK ONLY A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 23.3N  58.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N  59.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 24.8N  60.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.5N  61.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  62.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 28.0N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n\r\nINFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF \r\nERIN SO FAR.  HOWEVER THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE \r\nFOR EVENTUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS...AND \r\nHIGH CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW SHOW SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE OF ERIN.  THIS INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS \r\nBECOMING ESTABLISHED.  HOWEVER...EVEN WITH THE FAVORABLE SIGNS IN \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE \r\nSINCE ERIN HAS BEEN SO FICKLE UP TO THIS POINT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHT-TIME IMAGES.  MY BEST \r\nGUESS FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  ERIN MAY BE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW \r\nREMNANTS AT THIS TIME.  A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY \r\nBYPASSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE \r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER THERE IS ALSO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL \r\nVORTEX ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST \r\nU.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE...STEERS SLOWLY ERIN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND \r\nNORTHWEST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE VORTEX.  THIS IS ON THE LEFT \r\nEDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERIN \r\nAROUND 06Z.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 24.0N  58.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 24.8N  59.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 25.6N  60.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 26.3N  61.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 27.2N  62.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 29.0N  64.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS HAS BEEN 030/06 BASED ON AIR FORCE \r\nRECON FIXES.  ALTHOUGH THIS MOTION DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK OF A 330 DEGREE HEADING...THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL \r\nSHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWARD TRACK FOR 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN \r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE EASTWARD \r\nCOMPONENT OF THE PAST 9 HOUR MOTION IS DUE TO A REFORMATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN ALL THAT WELL DEFINED.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nBYPASSING ERIN AND THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH IS ABOUT 5 DAYS AWAY FROM\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE WEST OF ERIN.  THESE COMBINE TO PRODUCE A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nGFDL...AVN...AND UKMET AGREE ON THIS.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1008 MB SURFACE PRESSURE...DOWN 5 MB FROM 9\r\nHOURS AGO.  THE HIGHEST WINDS MEASURED AT 1500 FT ALTITUDE WERE 35\r\nKNOTS ABOUT 25 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS.  OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING THE DEPRESSION TO 65 KNOTS\r\nIN 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES THE SAME AND THE GFDL IS MORE \r\nAGGRESSIVE.  IF THE AIRCRAFT HAD NOT FOUND A 5 MB PRESSURE DROP...I\r\nWOULD HAVE BACKED OFF ON BRINGING ERIN TO A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 24.7N  57.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 25.4N  57.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 26.3N  58.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 27.4N  59.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 28.6N  60.6W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 31.0N  63.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nAND THE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAVE IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY.\r\nALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED...THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  LATEST QUIKSCAT HAS THE CENTER\r\nERRONEOUSLY DISPLACED THE CIRCULATION ABOUT 140 N MI TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER. \r\n\r\nPERHAPS...ERIN HAS ALREADY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS\r\nINDICATED BY SATELLITE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE GROUND TRUTH\r\nWHICH WILL BE PROVIDED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE LATER TODAY.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND ERIN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nBY 72 HOURS OR LESS.  BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BRING ERIN TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.\r\n\r\nA TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF ERIN WEAKENED THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nMEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF ERIN\r\nIN A DAY OR SO.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE ERIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.  ON THIS TRACK...BERMUDA IS THE ONLY LAND AREA WHICH\r\nCOULD BE THREATENED BY ERIN.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO NCEP/AVN AND GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 24.8N  57.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N  58.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.5N  59.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 28.0N  60.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 29.5N  61.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 32.0N  64.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS FALLEN TO 1004 MB...ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO LATEST PRESSURE\r\nREPORTED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ESTIMATE FROM THE AMSU INSTRUMENT.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 46 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS.  ERIN IS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  I GUESS THIS HAS BEEN THE YEAR OF THE INTERRUPTED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES.\r\n\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT DEEP BUT THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION WITH BANDING FEATURES...AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR. SHEAR \r\nIS FORECAST TO BE LOW OR MARGINAL AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. SO ERIN IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nERIN IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BUT ONCE THE TROUGH \r\nTO THE NORTH IS GONE...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AGAIN AND ERIN \r\nSHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR \r\nA WHILE. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE \r\nAREA AND WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. ERIN SHOULD SLOW DOWN AGAIN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 25.7N  58.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 26.7N  58.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 28.5N  59.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 30.5N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 32.5N  62.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 34.5N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nERIN IS SHOWING SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATING THIS EVENING...WITH\r\nCONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN BANDS OVER THE \r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 06Z TO SEE IF THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE\r\nACTUALLY INDICATES STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nDEEP LAYER RIDGING IS DEVELOPING NORTH OF ERIN...AND LARGE SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST OF THE STORM DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT ERIN SHOULD TURN MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH TIME...AND NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE \r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HR.\r\n\r\nWHILE ERIN IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HR DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THERE ARE SOME HINTS THIS PROCESS MAY BE STARTING IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN THE DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK TOO\r\nHOSTILE...GIVEN ERIN'S TRACK RECORD OF RESPONDING BADLY TO SHEAR\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 26.3N  58.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 27.2N  58.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 28.8N  58.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 30.5N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 32.0N  61.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 34.5N  64.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nA RECON FIX AT 0547Z GIVES A MOTION OF 325/06 FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS. \r\n THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL AT 500 MB SHOWS THE STORM TRAPPED WITHIN A \r\nBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE \r\nVARIOUS TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CLOSELY CLUSTERED ALONG A \r\nFAIRLY SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED \r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RECON FIX \r\nAND INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 999 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 49 KNOTS AT \r\n925-MB FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE PRESSURE \r\nHAS FALLEN 10 MB IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS \r\nINCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  OTHERWISE THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING ERIN TO 65 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS.  \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO HAVE ITS UPS AND DOWNS BUT THE MOST \r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD TOPS AND \r\nORGANIZATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL COMPUTES 18 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nNEARBY FOR 24 HOURS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 26.7N  59.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 27.7N  59.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 29.4N  60.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 31.0N  61.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 32.5N  63.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 35.0N  66.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A CLOUD PATTERN MUCH BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  IT NOW HAS BANDING FEATURES...DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A FAIR OUTFLOW.  T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5\r\nAND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.  A RECON PLANE WILL CHECK THE\r\nINTENSITY IN A FEW HOURS.  AS IT HAS BEEN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...\r\nCONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND IT APPEARS THAT\r\nERIN FINALLY IS GOING TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  WE\r\nSHALL SEE.\r\n\r\nERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS. THE UPPER-TROUGH\r\nALREADY MOVED BY ERIN AND A MODERATE TO STRONG RIDGE IS BUILDING TO \r\nTHE NORTH.  THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP ERIN ON A SLOW NORTHWEST TRACK \r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EXTENSIVELY DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORIES. IF THE RIDGE BUILDS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TURN \r\nMORE TO THE LEFT COULD OCCUR AS INDICATED BY SOME MODELS. ERIN IS \r\nEXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WATCH \r\nAT THIS TIME.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 27.5N  59.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 28.7N  60.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 30.5N  61.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 32.0N  63.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 33.5N  64.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 35.0N  65.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL 994 MB...THE RECON\r\nREPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KNOTS PEAKING AT 80 KNOTS.  THIS\r\nIS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING ERIN TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.\r\nIN ADDITION...  TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT HURRICANE STATUS.\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A WELL DEFINED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER AND A BANDING TYPE EYE MAY BE FORMING.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS. THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST IS BUILDING SO ERIN COULD MOVE MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. IN FACT...BOTH NOGAPS AND UK MODELS MOVE THE HURRICANE\r\nNEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE AVN IS A LITTLE BIT TO\r\nTHE RIGHT...BUT VERY NEAR THE ISLAND TOO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND CLOSE ENOUGH TO WARRANT HURRICANE\r\nWARNINGS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN AND\r\nERIN MAY SLOW DOWN AGAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 29.0N  60.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 30.5N  62.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 32.5N  64.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 34.5N  65.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 36.0N  66.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 37.5N  66.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n\r\nTHE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 992 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT.  SINCE THAT TIME...ERIN HAS DEVELOPED AN\r\nIRREGULAR 35-40 NM WIDE EYE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS THUS RAISED TO 75 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE\r\nIN THE STORM AT ABOUT 06Z TO EITHER CONFIRM OR REFUTE THE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/13.  SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT A\r\nSIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NORTH OF ERIN...WHICH WOULD\r\nFAVOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING.\r\nNHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING NORTHWESTERLY MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH DUE TO AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW WEST OF THE HURRICANE AND A LARGER DEEP LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO DOWN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE\r\nOF THE NHC GUIDANCE MOVES ERIN WEST OF 68W AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nERIN IS SHOWING GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH.\r\nHOWEVER...SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS WEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE BLOWING\r\nSTRAIGHT TOWARD IT...HINTING THAT SHEAR MAY NOT YET BE THROUGH\r\nWITH ERIN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THESE WESTERLIES ARE DUE\r\nTO THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...\r\nAND THE MODELS FORECAST THESE WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AS THE\r\nLOW DEVELOPS FURTHER AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR OR OVER ERIN.\r\nSHOULD THIS HAPPEN...ERIN WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND STRENGTHEN.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL\r\nHAPPEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW ALONG.  THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE THAT ERIN COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST HERE IF THE\r\nSHEAR REMAINS LIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON COORDINATION WITH\r\nTHE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER.  WHILE ERIN IS NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST\r\nTO THREATEN THE UNITED STATES...SWELLS FROM THE HURRICANE MAY \r\nEVENTUALLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 30.1N  60.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 31.7N  61.8W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 33.4N  63.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 34.8N  65.2W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 36.5N  66.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 38.0N  66.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001\r\n \r\nRECON FOUND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 101 KT IN THE NORTHEAST \r\nQUADRANT AND 982 MB PRESSURE...SO THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 \r\nKT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND \r\nBECOMING MORE CIRCULAR. OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT TO NORTH AND EAST \r\nAND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13.  ERIN HAS MADE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF THE DEEP \r\nTROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CANADA SOUTHWARD INTO THE U.S. \r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE ENTIRE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY ALL \r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD...WHICH SHOULD \r\nALLOW ERIN TO BEGIN RECURVING BETWEEN 35N AND 38N LATITUDE. \r\nHOWEVER...IN THE NEAR TERM...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS WITHIN AT \r\nLEAST 60 NM EAST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 \r\nHOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW RECON POSITION...AND THEN CLOSE TO \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND EAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE \r\nAS ERIN MOVES UNDERNEATH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW \r\nAHEAD OF THE U.S. LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND ALSO DUE TO THE DIGGING \r\nTROUGH TO THE EAST...WHICH IS HELPING TO ACCELERATE THE OUTFLOW IN \r\nTHE EAST SEMICIRCLE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY \r\nAND ERIN COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 \r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 31.1N  61.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 32.5N  63.4W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 34.1N  65.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 35.7N  66.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 37.0N  66.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 38.3N  64.3W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001\r\n...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 90 KTS...\r\nLAST RECON WAS AROUND 11Z...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED FOR \r\n18Z.  MEANWHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING A LITTLE \r\nBETTER DEFINED ALTHOUGH THE SURROUNDING TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.  \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED A LITTLE FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  HOWEVER ERIN STILL \r\nHAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THE FIRST MAJOR...CAT 3...HURRICANE OF \r\nTHE SEASON.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12.  ERIN IS MOVING THROUGH A SLIGHT \r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THIS TIME.  OVERALL... THE \r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS RECURVATURE BEGINNING AROUND THE MIDDLE OF \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE \r\nU.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER MOVEMENT TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTHEAST THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS \r\nMORE TOWARD A BLEND OF THE AVN AND NOGAPS TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 32.2N  62.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 33.5N  64.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 35.2N  65.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.4N  65.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 37.2N  65.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 39.0N  63.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST REPORTED 118 KT WINDS AT THE 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL.  USING OUR STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR OF 90 PERCENT TO\r\nGO FROM 700 MB TO THE SURFACE GIVES JUST OVER 105 KNOTS...I.E.  CAT.\r\n3 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  A GPS DROPSONDE RELEASED\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL SHOWED A SPOT SURFACE WIND OF 111 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER USING THE MORE CONSERVATIVE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OR THE\r\nAVERAGE WIND IN THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING GIVES A VALUE\r\nCLOSER TO 100 KNOTS...SO 105 KNOTS IS A GOOD COMPROMISE.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN WHAT ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FOR A HURRICANE OF THIS\r\nSTRENGTH...THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE ALSO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE\r\nIN THIS AREA.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED...BUT SINCE SSTS DO NOT COOL MUCH ALONG THE TRACK OF\r\nERIN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ERIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD HER OWN\r\nFOR A WHILE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THAT\r\nSHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLOWING AND TURNING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  THE\r\nMOVEMENT OF ERIN SHOULD SLOW EVEN MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.  NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD...ERIN SHOULD BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND START TO\r\nMOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE \r\nCURRENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 32.9N  63.0W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 34.2N  64.0W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 35.6N  64.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 36.5N  64.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 37.5N  63.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 39.0N  60.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":31,"Date":"2001-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON REPORTED 114 KT WINDS AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...\r\nWHICH MAINTAINS THE 105 KNOT SURFACE WIND SPEED.  SATELLITE DEVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO COMING IN AT BETWEEN 100 AND 105 KNOTS.\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE...NOW AT 969 MB...IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT FOR A HURRICANE OF\r\nTHIS STRENGTH...THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE ALSO HIGHER THAN\r\nAVERAGE IN THIS AREA.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED...BUT SINCE SSTS REMAIN WARM ALONG THE TRACK OF\r\nERIN FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ERIN SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD HER OWN\r\nFOR A WHILE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THAT\r\nSHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nERINS INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO SLOW...DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...ERIN SHOULD\r\nBREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND START TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK AGAIN \r\nFALLS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 33.7N  63.5W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 34.8N  64.0W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 36.0N  64.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 37.0N  63.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 38.2N  61.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 40.0N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":32,"Date":"2001-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT \r\n...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 105 KT.  THE EYE HAS \r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED...WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED \r\nSLIGHTLY.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT EXCELLENT \r\nTO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. ERIN IS EXPECTED \r\nTO SLOW DOWN IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND MAKE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE \r\nNORTH AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE AXIS.  THE APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER \r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP ERIN \r\nAND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST BY 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK AND ALSO IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL TRACKS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF ERIN...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED \r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE \r\nSYSTEM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND \r\nMOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 34.7N  64.4W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 35.9N  64.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 37.1N  64.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 38.2N  63.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 39.0N  61.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 41.0N  57.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":33,"Date":"2001-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN REMAINS A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED \r\nSYSTEM...WITH THE CLASSIC SIGNATURE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE 30 N \r\nMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS \r\nFORECAST SINCE ERIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER FAIRLY WARM...HIGHER THAN 26 \r\nDEG C...WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST IS A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE \r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9.  THE HURRICANE HAS NOT YET TURNED \r\nTOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING...LIKELY BECAUSE OF THE STEERING \r\nINFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.  \r\nIT IS PRESUMED THAT...AS ERIN GAINS MORE LATITUDE...THE EFFECT OF \r\nTHE UPPER LOW WILL DIMINISH.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE \r\nNORTHEAST U.S. SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT \r\nERIN IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN.  THEN...AROUND THE END OF THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD...A SECOND SHORTWAVE SHOULD BEGIN TO PICK UP THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND INCREASE THE MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  IN \r\nTHE MEANTIME...ERIN'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SLOW.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 35.4N  64.8W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 36.5N  65.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 37.5N  64.3W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 38.2N  62.4W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 39.0N  60.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 41.5N  56.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":34,"Date":"2001-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nA NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING ERIN.\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE DOWN TO\r\n100 KNOTS...PERHAPS LESS.  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n970 MB IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN A DROP NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER AND\r\nVALUES EXTRAPOLATED FROM FLIGHT LEVEL.  THE WIND PROFILE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT ERIN HAS FORMED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF THE\r\nMORE INTENSE HURRICANES.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AT A\r\nSIMILAR RATE AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/7...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  EVEN\r\nMORE SLOWING IS FORECAST AS ERIN TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY.  A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS\r\nMOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND\r\nEVENTUALLY MOVE ERIN TO THE NORTHEAST.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN\r\nWHETHER ERIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE\r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT COULD \r\nCHANGE.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL LIKELY BE A HAZARD ALONG THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 36.0N  65.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 36.9N  65.5W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 37.5N  64.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 38.4N  62.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 39.5N  59.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 42.0N  55.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":35,"Date":"2001-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nAIRBORNE RADAR IMAGERY FROM A NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION P-3\r\nFLIGHT VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT ERIN HAS A CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL STRUCTURE.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY DOUBLE PEAKS IN BOTH THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE WINDS REPORTED BY THE STEPPED-\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ONBOARD THE P-3.\r\nTHE HIGHEST WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE JUST UNDER 80 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nALSO RELEASED A HANDFUL OF GPS DROPWINDSONDES...ONE OF WHICH GAVE A\r\nWIND OF 89 KT FOR ITS LAST REPORT AT AN ELEVATION OF 17 M.\r\nCOLLECTIVELY...THE DROPSONDES ALSO WOULD ARGUE FOR A PEAK WIND ON\r\nTHE ORDER OF 80 KT.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A LITTLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nAT 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE...THERE MAY BE SOME \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS THE INNER \r\nEYEWALL COLLAPSES AND THE OUTER ONE TAKES OVER.  GLOBAL MODELS \r\nSUGGEST THAT ERIN COULD BECOME A VERY VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM \r\nAROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nDOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nMOTION.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A\r\nSERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.  COAST\r\nSHOULD BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ERIN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER ERIN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAFFECT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS THE\r\nCYCLONE OFFSHORE...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE.\r\n\r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL LIKELY BE A HAZARD ALONG THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 36.7N  65.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 37.8N  65.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 38.4N  64.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 39.0N  62.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 39.5N  59.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 43.0N  54.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":36,"Date":"2001-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nERIN REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE WITH ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING \r\nINDICATED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS \r\n355/06...WHICH INDICATES THAT ERIN IS ON THE RIDGE AXIS AND \r\nPREPARING TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE OCCURRING WITHIN THE \r\nNEXT 12 HOURS WITH A NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH \r\n48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY \r\nWITH NOGAPS BEING THE WESTERNMOST MODEL BY TAKING ERIN WEST OF \r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE GFDL MODEL RACES THE HURRICANE OFF TO THE \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN \r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nERIN SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD DUE TO DECREASING \r\nSSTS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY 72 HOURS...ERIN MAY BEGIN TO \r\nMERGE WITH A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL LIKELY BE A HAZARD ALONG THE\r\nNORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 37.2N  65.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 38.0N  65.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 38.8N  63.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 39.3N  61.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 40.0N  59.3W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 43.5N  54.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":37,"Date":"2001-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n\r\nERIN REMAINS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THE \r\nEYE IS A LITTLE RAGGED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED \r\nFROM 06Z...SO CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS.  SLOW \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AT THE END OF THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD...ERIN MAY BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nERIN IS WOBBLING...BUT HAS FINALLY TURNED TO THE EAST OF \r\nNORTH...INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06...BUT IT MAY BE EVEN MORE \r\nTO THE RIGHT.  ERIN SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD TO \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. \r\nCOAST.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD \r\nDEEPEN THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATE ERIN.   THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS \r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD\r\nALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 37.6N  65.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 38.3N  64.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 38.9N  62.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 39.5N  60.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 40.5N  58.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 45.0N  53.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":38,"Date":"2001-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ERIN HAS MAINTAINED ITS \r\nINTENSITY FOR THE TIME BEING.  SINCE THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER \r\nA RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nSO...WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO BE SLOW.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD...ERIN SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  ERIN \r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THEN \r\nNORTHEASTWARD AROUND A TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. \r\nCOAST.  THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD\r\nALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 37.9N  64.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 38.5N  63.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 39.0N  61.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 39.8N  59.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 41.0N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 46.0N  52.5W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":39,"Date":"2001-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW DOWN TO 77\r\nKT...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD.  SINCE THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD MOVE OVER A RIBBON OF SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL\r\nWATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WEAKENING IS PREDICTED TO BE SLOW.\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ERIN SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nRECENT RUNS OF THE AVN MODEL HAVE HANDLED ERIN REASONABLE WELL.  IT \r\nFORECASTS THAT THE THIRD IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL \r\nAMPLIFY AND TURN THE CYCLONE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  THE UKMET AND \r\nGFDL CONCUR AND THIS INCREASES THE THREAT TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n\r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD\r\nALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 38.0N  64.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 38.4N  62.7W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 38.7N  61.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 39.9N  59.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 42.0N  57.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 48.0N  52.5W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":40,"Date":"2001-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERIN HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE AND \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THE CYCLONE IS STILL AROUND \r\n75 KT INTENSITY.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND FAIR \r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT \r\nHAS BEEN MOVING ERIN EASTWARD TODAY IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ERIN TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE NEXT AND MUCH LARGER TROUGH \r\nFINALLY PICKS UP ERIN FOR GOOD.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... \r\nAND THE BACKING FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO PULL THE \r\nCYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  THIS \r\nSCENARIO IS BEST DEPICTED BY THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE DEEP VERTICAL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN...ONLY SLOW \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES MUCH COLDER WATER IN \r\n48 HOURS. HOWEVER...LATEST INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES \r\nSUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL IS BEGINNING TO OPEN UP IN THE NORTHEAST \r\nQUADRANT...HINTING THAT ERIN MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY ERIN WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE A HAZARD\r\nALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 38.0N  62.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 38.1N  61.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 38.7N  59.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  58.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 41.4N  56.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 44.5N  53.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":41,"Date":"2001-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n\r\nERIN CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES.  \r\nHOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE 30 N MI DIAMETER EYE ARE \r\nGRADUALLY WARMING.  THE LARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN...AND \r\nERIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD...PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH \r\nOF EAST.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ERIN MAY BE \r\nRETARDING ITS FORWARD PROGRESS SOMEWHAT...BUT THE UPPER LOW'S \r\nINFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME...WITH THE \r\nPRIMARY STEERING BEING DUE TO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE \r\nLATEST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...AND \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 38.0N  62.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 38.4N  60.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 39.5N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 41.0N  57.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 43.0N  56.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 47.0N  52.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":42,"Date":"2001-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...BUT LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 75 KNOTS.  ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM BEGINS \r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD...SSTS WILL BE COOLING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE \r\nTRACK.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH \r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  HOWEVER ERIN MAY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE \r\nTO COLD WATER.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN \r\n72 HOURS...PERHAPS SOONER.\r\n\r\nERIN HAS BEEN MOVING QUITE SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST.  AN\r\nEASTWARD-MOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nGREAT LAKES...SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACCELERATION IN A DAY OR SO.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MODIFICATION TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT TO MOVE THE SYSTEM A BIT FASTER IN\r\n2-3 DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 38.0N  61.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 38.2N  60.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 39.5N  59.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 41.5N  57.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 44.0N  54.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 50.0N  49.0W    70 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":43,"Date":"2001-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE EYE BRIEFLY TIGHTENED UP THIS EVENING BUT IS AGAIN BECOMING\r\nDIFFUSE.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 75 KNOTS.\r\nAFTER THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWARD...SSTS WILL BE\r\nCOOLING SUBSTANTIALLY ALONG THE TRACK.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  HOWEVER\r\nERIN MAY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COLD WATER.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nLOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nERIN HAS SHOWN HINTS OF LITTLE TURN TO THE LEFT.  AN EASTWARD-\r\nMOVING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT\r\nLAKES...SHOULD ACCELERATE ERIN NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO.  MOST\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SHOWS ERIN\r\nPASSING OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 38.2N  61.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 38.6N  60.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 40.4N  58.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 42.9N  55.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 46.0N  53.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 57.0N  46.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":44,"Date":"2001-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/07. THE EYE OF ERIN REMAINS LARGE \r\nBUT WELL-DEFINED.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SST WATER AND \r\nSHOULD REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY FAVORABLE OCEAN TEMPERATURES FOR \r\nANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL \r\nTHE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPCIAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORERCAST TRACK REASONING. ERIN \r\nIS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER \r\nEASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD BY ALL THE MODELS AND \r\nBECOME MORE NEGATIVELY-TILTED...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE THE \r\nCYCLONE RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST.  ERIN IS EXPECTED TO \r\nPASS CLOSE TO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII WERE EXPANDED AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND TO CORRESPOND WITH \r\nTHE MPC HIGH SEAS/MARINE FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 38.5N  60.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 39.5N  59.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 41.6N  57.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 44.3N  54.8W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 60.0N  42.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":45,"Date":"2001-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS MOTION.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST \r\nTHINKING AND THE FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME \r\nEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS LARGE BUT REMAINS WELL DEFINED.  DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 70 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER \r\nCOOLER WATERS IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 39.1N  60.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 40.2N  59.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 43.0N  57.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 46.5N  53.5W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 50.5N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":46,"Date":"2001-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OF ERIN HAS BEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC OVER THE PAST FEW \r\nHOURS...BUT SMOOTHING OUT THE WIGGLES GIVES 025/7.  THIS IS LEFT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED... \r\nSUGGESTS THAT ERIN WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THAT WILL \r\nTAKE IT OVER EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SHADED A \r\nLITTLE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE ARE STILL ABOUT 26C...AND \r\nERIN HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THE DVORAK \r\nT-NUMBER FROM TAFB IS ACTUALLY UP A BIT COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO.  \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT.  AFTER ANOTHER 12 HOURS...WATER \r\nTEMPERATURES COOL RAPIDLY.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 40.2N  59.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 41.7N  58.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 44.1N  56.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 53.0N  47.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":47,"Date":"2001-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n\r\nERIN STILL SHOWS AN EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 65 KT FROM SAB.\r\nA RECENT SSM/I PASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME\r\nRATHER ASYMMETRIC...WHICH IS POSSIBLY THE FIRST EFFECT OF COOLER\r\nWATER ON THE HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.\r\nERIN SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 36-48 HR.\r\n \r\nERIN IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n035/11.  A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS LIKELY BEFORE THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND NUDGED JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 41.1N  58.8W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 42.5N  57.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 45.7N  53.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 50.0N  49.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 56.0N  43.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":48,"Date":"2001-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nIR IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW AND EYE INDICATING THAT ERIN IS STILL AT\r\nLEAST A 65-KNOT HURRICANE.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST ABOUT 17 KNOTS OVER INCREASING COOL WATERS AND IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...ERIN IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 42.5N  57.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 44.5N  55.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 48.5N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 53.5N  46.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":49,"Date":"2001-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF ERIN HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER...SIGNS THAT THE STORM IS STARTING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB.  FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...WITH ERIN BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH WEST OF ERIN SHOULD CAUSE IT TO \r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  THIS\r\nMOTION SHOULD BRING IT NEAR CAPE RACE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 44.1N  55.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 46.6N  53.2W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 51.0N  49.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erin","Adv":50,"Date":"2001-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n\r\nERIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE ORGANIZATION...WITH THE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 65 KT...SO ERIN WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE\r\nFOR ONE MORE PACKAGE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN REVISED\r\nDOWNWARD BASED ON A 988.2 MB OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 44625 NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER AT 18Z.\r\n \r\nA STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH WEST OF ERIN SHOULD CAUSE IT TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT\r\n12 HR.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING IT NEAR CAPE RACE IN ABOUT 6 HOURS.\r\nTROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE SPREADING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nAT THIS TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER PASSES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 45.6N  54.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 48.3N  51.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 54.5N  46.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":51,"Date":"2001-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nERIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE ORGANIZATION...WITH THE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS STILL 65 KT WHICH ASSUMES A TROPICAL \r\nSYSTEM... WHICH IT IS NOT.  SAB HAS CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM AS \r\nEXTRATROPICAL...WHICH I AGREE WITH.  THEREFORE...AT OOOOZ ERIN IS \r\nDOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND IS DECLARED BECOMING \r\nEXTRATROPICAL AT 0300Z.  MPC WILL TAKE OVER THIS SYSTEM AND FUTURE \r\nADVISORIES WILL APPEAR IN THEIR HIGH SEAS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 040/26 KT.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH WEST OF\r\nERIN SHOULD CAUSE IT TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 48.0N  51.9W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 51.9N  49.1W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 57.4N  45.7W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A FEW SPARSE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL WAVE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ORGANIZED\r\nENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS BASED ON THE \r\nPRESENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW .  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nUNCERTAIN.  BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/16.  THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED\r\nBECAUSE SOME MODELS PRODUCE AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE\r\nAHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION...MAKING THE STEERING FLOW NON-DESCRIPT.  IF\r\nI DID NOT HAVE THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND I AM GLAD I HAVE THEM...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST WOULD INDICATE A STRAIGHT WESTWARD MOTION DUE TO THE\r\nPRESENCE OF A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY RETROGRADE THE HIGH AND LEAVE AN\r\nOPENING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ESCAPE NORTHWARD.  WITH SUCH\r\nUNCERTAINTY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 14.5N  30.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N  33.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.5N  37.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.0N  40.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 16.5N  42.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N  45.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nPATTERN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT CONCENTRATED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT.  THUS...\r\nTHE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS BROAD...AND IT WAS EITHER FARTHER TO THE EAST OR\r\nMOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.  THE INITIAL MOTION WILL\r\nBE 280/15 ON THE ASSUMPTION IT WAS FARTHER EAST.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nAND SEPARATED FROM IT BY A NARROW RIDGE.  THIS SUGGESTS A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE SHORT TERM.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT STRONGER RIDGING WILL \r\nDEVELOP EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE A NORTHWARD TURN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT FULLY FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME AS\r\nSUCH TURNS WERE CONSISTENTLY OVERFORECAST IN ERIN.  INSTEAD...\r\nTHE TRACK WILL CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THERE\r\nARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS THAT IT SHOULD NOT BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nIN 24 HR OR LESS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JUST THAT.\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD STRONG UPPER\r\nLEVEL WESTERLIES COULD ENCROACH ON THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF IT\r\nMOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.  THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLOWER STRENGTHENING THAN THAT INDICATED IN THE SHIPS MODEL FOR\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 14.7N  31.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.1N  33.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.6N  36.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  39.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.5N  42.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N  46.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF \r\nMOTION.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A STRONG RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH...BUT WITH SOME WEAKENING IN 72 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE \r\nTRACK ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH \r\nA DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTELY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION ON \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.  \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF \r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND STRENGTHENING \r\nTO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 15.0N  31.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.7N  33.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.3N  36.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.7N  39.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.3N  42.3W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N  46.0W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE GOOD SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY...THE DEPRESSION...YET ANOTHER\r\nSYSTEM THIS YEAR...HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN.  VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION WITH A FEW BANDS OF CONVECTION.  IT SEEMS THAT THE THREE\r\nWAVES IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE TOO CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND ARE\r\nINTERFERING WITH EACH OTHERS INFLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER INDICATES STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSERVATIVE\r\nAND THE DEPRESSION MAY DEGRADE TO A TROPICAL WAVE.  WHILE SHEAR AND\r\nSSTS HAVE BEEN FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...IT IS\r\nUNKNOWN WHY THERE HAS BEEN A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE\r\nDEEP TROPICAL ATLANTIC SO FAR. ONE COULD SPECULATE THAT THE \r\nATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN MORE STABLE THAN NORMAL...INHIBITING THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT IS HARD TO PROVE.\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL MOTION OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BEEN 280/14 AND THIS\r\nTRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 15.2N  33.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.5N  35.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  38.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  41.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N  44.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 18.5N  47.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS \r\nRE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  DEEP CONVECTION \r\nHAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHILE OUTFLOW \r\nHAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nOF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF \r\n30KT... T2.0...FROM TAFB AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWING \r\n30 KT NON-CONTAMINATED WINDS ABOUT 100 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER.  \r\nNEARBY BOUYS ALSO HAVE BEEN REPORTING SURFACE PRESSURES DOWN TO AS \r\nLOW AS 1008 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK \r\nAND FUTURE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER TRICKY DUE TO THE \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS...THE \r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL AND STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION \r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHILE THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND THEN TURN IT NORTHWARD EAST OF \r\n50W LONGITUDE. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE LBAR MODEL...WHICH IS IN \r\nBETWEEN AND APPEARS TO BE A NICE COMPROMISE AT THIS TIME.  THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS MAY BE RECURVING THE DEPRESSION A LITTLE PREMATURE \r\nBASED ON THE FACT THAT (1) THEY ALL INITIALIZED THE CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER TOO FAR NORTH AND (2) THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST \r\nTO PICK UP THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST MAY \r\nWEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS SOMEWHAT...BUT WATER \r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL MASS OUTFLOW FROM \r\nHURRICANE ERIN IS BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE BASE OF THE \r\nTROUGH...WHICH WOULD ACT TO MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nRIDGE. THAT WOULD TEND TO KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING MORE TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHWEST THAN TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FOREACST BASED ON THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN AND VERY WARM SSTS...28C PLUS...AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION. IT \r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL \r\nSTORM. IF NOT...THEN IT SHOULD BECOME ONE LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 15.3N  44.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.6N  45.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.5N  47.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 17.5N  49.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 18.6N  50.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 20.5N  52.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INDICATE TWO\r\nDISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS WNW MOTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN\r\nWHILE A WEAKER CIRCULATION FOUND SE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nWAVE THAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED E OF THE NORTHERN VORTEX AND THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION IS SHIFTED N TO REFLECT THIS FACT.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 2.0 FROM TAFB WITH SAB AND AFGW AT 1.0 AND 1.5\r\nRESPECTIVELY...  INDICATIVE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER\r\nLOCATION.  BECAUSE OF THE DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...WE\r\nHAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nUSING THE MEAN POSITION OF THE 2 CENTERS...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS ABOUT 285/11.  THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nREMAINS A BIT TRICKY BECAUSE IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHICH CENTER..IF\r\nEITHER...WILL BECOME DOMINANT.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MAINLY BECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT\r\nTOWARD A MEAN CENTER LOCATION.  THIS IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nMODEL SUITE.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH DID A REASONABLY\r\nGOOD JOB OF INITIALIZING THE DOUBLE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH SOMEWHAT SOONER THAN\r\nSHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 16.3N  46.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N  47.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  48.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N  49.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N  50.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 22.0N  51.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nAFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGES OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DO LITTLE TO DISPEL\r\nTHE PROBLEM OF TWO DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTERS.  CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED WHILE\r\nCONVECTION WITH THE NORTHERN VORTEX HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY.\r\nA DRIFTING BUOY REPORTED SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 14.9N 46.4W...WHICH\r\nWOULD SUPPORT A CLOSED CIRCULATION...HOWEVER IT WAS NOT CLEAR\r\nWHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM THE\r\nDISSIPATING CONVECTION..OR THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH TRACKING THE NORTHERN\r\nVORTEX...AND IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THIS IS THE MORE\r\nDOMINANT CIRCULATION IN THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 2.5 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE OVERALL\r\nAPPEARANCE OF A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n\r\nA NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM A\r\nLARGER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOT FAR AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LIFT THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST THROUGH\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS...THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE CURRENT\r\nNHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\nHOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT OVERALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT DUE TO A\r\nSLIGHT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH.  THIS IS A BIT LEFT OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 17.2N  46.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N  48.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 19.0N  49.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 20.0N  50.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 21.0N  51.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 24.0N  52.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nLAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY DID NOT INSPIRE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS \r\nSYSTEM HAS THE CIRCULATION OF A BONA FIDE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND \r\nNEITHER DID THE QUIKSCAT PASS VALID AT 21Z...WHICH BASICALLY SHOWED \r\nA SHARP WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS.  THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING \r\nVIGOROUS CONVECTION...BUT IT IS WELL TO THE EAST OF WHATEVER CENTER \r\nTHE SYSTEM MAY HAVE.  THE QUIKSCAT DID SHOW A COUPLE OF NON-FLAGGED \r\nWIND VECTORS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT I AM NOT PREPARED TO \r\nUPGRADE A SYSTEM THAT I WOULD PREFER TO DOWNGRADE.  IT IS \r\nPOSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH UNLIKELY...THAT YET ANOTHER CENTER COULD DEVELOP \r\nFROM THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION...IN WHICH CASE WE WOULD HAVE A \r\nTROPICAL STORM...BUT THE BEST COURSE FOR NOW IS TO MAINTAIN THE \r\nSTATUS QUO UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY IN THE MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\nALL THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nAHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHARPLY RECURVING TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF \r\nOF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS A 72 HOUR POSITION ABOUT 240 NM \r\nWEST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 17.5N  47.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  48.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 19.1N  50.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 20.2N  51.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 21.5N  51.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  51.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS \r\nINDICATED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES\r\nAND A NEARBY BUOY REPORT INDICATING A PRESSURE OF 1003.9 MB.  \r\nHOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM \r\nHAS WEAKENED THE CONVECTION...SO I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE INTENSITY \r\nJUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE UNTIL THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS \r\nCONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  ALL OF THE MODELS NOW AT \r\nLEAST AGREE ON THE DEPRESSION SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE \r\nTRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. \r\nTHE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE AVN MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM ALMOST \r\nDUE NORTH FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED \r\nON THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH AND SO THAT AVN SOLUTION WAS \r\nDISCOUNTED.  THE GFDL MODEL AND ALL THREE BAM MODELS ARE IN CLOSE \r\nAGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD SPEED TO AROUND \r\n4 KT BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTRACTS AND THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 17.9N  48.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.7N  49.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 19.8N  50.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 21.0N  51.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 22.3N  52.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 24.8N  52.8W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SEVEN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWHILE THE OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE\r\nTHAT WINDS HAVE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SEVEN IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FELIX AT THIS TIME.  FELIX COULD BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE AS IT IS MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE SHEAR \r\nINCREASES.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nLOCATION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM OVERALL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nAT 10 KNOTS.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF FELIX WILL LIKELY\r\nPROVIDE A GENERAL TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...FELIX IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO A TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 18.9N  47.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 20.0N  48.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 21.5N  49.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  49.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  49.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 27.0N  49.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL\r\nDISPLACED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION BUT IN GENERAL...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS IMPROVED.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  FELIX\r\nCOULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES.  THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFELIX IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE \r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE \r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER... FELIX IS EXPECTED TO \r\nRECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERLY FLOW INDUCED \r\nBY A LARGE LOW AND ERIN.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF \r\nTRACK MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 19.6N  48.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 20.9N  49.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  49.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 24.5N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  50.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 28.5N  48.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nWITH ONLY INFRARED IMAGES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHERE THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS.  USING DEAD RECKONING AND SOME GUIDANCE FROM\r\nMICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09...THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHE STORM MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE AND THEN BEGINNING TO RECURVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTATIONARY CUTOFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CURRENTLY A CDO-TYPE FEATURE FORMING AND THE FORECAST IS\r\nFOR MODEST STRENGTHENING UNDER WHAT MAY BE SOME FAIRLY STRONG\r\nSHEAR...15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE\r\nSHIPS DIAGNOSIS OF THE AVIATION MODEL.  THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nWITH A FORECAST OF 100 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 20.7N  48.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 22.1N  49.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 23.8N  49.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 25.6N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 27.3N  49.4W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 30.0N  45.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09...THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHE STORM MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE AND TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN 48 HOURS.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION AGAIN APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS AGAIN KEPT AT 35\r\nKNOTS.  STARTING WITH 24 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECASTS MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  IN\r\nCONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL GOES TO 100 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE UKMET\r\nIS ALSO FORECASTING LOTS OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS JUST IN CASE THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE \r\nRIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 21.5N  48.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 22.9N  49.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 24.6N  49.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 26.7N  49.9W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 28.5N  48.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 31.0N  44.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT FELIX HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nIN FACT...THERE IS EYE-LIKE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP AND A WELL\r\nDEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. FOR A\r\nCHANGE...SHIPS DOES NOT DEVELOP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INTENSE AS\r\nTHE GFDL WHICH MAKES FELIX A 100-KNOT HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING WHILE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE\r\nOCEAN IS WARM. HOWEVER...FELIX COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFELIX IS MOVING 350/7 AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAND THEN FELIX IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 22.3N  48.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 23.2N  49.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  49.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 27.0N  47.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 28.7N  45.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 30.0N  38.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOW 3/4 OF A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER...SUGGESTING THAT FELIX MAY BE DEVELOPING AN EYEWALL.\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nBUT THERE IS NO EYE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 60\r\nKNOTS.  LATEST SHIPS MODEL IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL\r\nWHICH MAKES FELIX AN INTENSE HURRICANE.  WITH THE APPROACHING MID TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY IMPROVE AND FELIX COULD\r\nINTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED. BASED ON THIS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BRINGING\r\nFELIX TO 85 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN.  FELIX CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS.  SOME LONG RANGE MODELS BRING FELIX NEAR THE AZORES\r\nBEYOND 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 23.3N  49.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 24.6N  49.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.5N  48.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 28.5N  46.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  43.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 31.5N  36.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nFELIX IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES...PARTIALLY-CONTAMINATED QUIKSCAT WIND DATA...AND AN SSMI \r\nDOUGHNUT-SHAPE.  THE GFDL STILL TAKES THE WIND TO 100 KNOTS WHILE \r\nSHIPS GOES TO 82 KNOTS UNDER FAIRLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN.  FELIX CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE\r\nIN 24 HOURS OR SO EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 24.2N  48.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  48.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 27.6N  47.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 29.5N  45.4W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 30.7N  42.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE IN THE LAST TWO INFRARED IMAGES.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 23 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR FELIX AND\r\nFORECASTS WINDS TO 77 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH THE SHEAR\r\nWEAKENING A LITTLE.  ONLY THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING THE\r\nWIND SPEED QUICKLY TO 105 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS MODEL...REALIZING THAT FELIX COULD GET\r\nSTRONGER.\r\n \r\nTHE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE SAME AS EARLIER.\r\nFELIX CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT\r\nBECOMES STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE TRACK MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BETTER AGREE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nAVN...GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 25.4N  48.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 27.0N  48.4W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 29.0N  47.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 30.6N  44.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 31.6N  41.7W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 33.0N  37.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO \r\n5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUIVALENT TO 90 KNOTS. THE WATER IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW...THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY \r\nCLOSE TO GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH ABOUT 11 KNOTS AND IS ABOUT THE\r\nREACH THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ENTER INTO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS\r\nANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS NO REASON TO DISCUSS THE MODELS...THEY ARE\r\nALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.\r\n\r\nFELIX IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 26.4N  48.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  47.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 29.5N  45.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  38.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  32.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN \r\nINCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.5 DVORAK SATELLITE FROM TAFB. \r\nTHIS MAKES FELIX THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OR CATEGORY THREE \r\nHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE OF THE 2001 SEASON. \r\nUNANIMOUSLY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE AVN... \r\nCONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FELIX. IN ADDITION TO MODELS...BECAUSE THE \r\nWATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS FELIX TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF \r\n115 KNOTS.  \r\n \r\nFELIX ALREADY BEGAN TO TURN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAT 11 KNOTS.  A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nHURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE AVN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nAT LONGER RANGES...WHILE APPROACHING THE AZORES...FELIX MAY SLOW \r\nDOWN AS INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE \r\nSYSTEM.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 27.5N  47.8W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.1N  47.0W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 30.5N  43.9W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  40.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 32.0N  36.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 34.5N  31.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST\r\nSIX HOURS.  THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 100 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.5 DVORAK SATELLITE FROM TAFB.  FELIX IS\r\nTHE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE OF THE 2001 SEASON.  INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEED\r\nAND I AM GOING TO KEEP THE INTENSITY INVARIANT DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATER AND THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE.  AT 72 HOURS THE \r\nSYSTEM WILL BE OVER 25 DEG C WATER TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN THE \r\nTRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\nFELIX HAS CONTINUED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 050/12.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nAVN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nAT LONGER RANGES...WHILE APPROACHING THE AZORES...FELIX MAY SLOW\r\nDOWN AS INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 28.6N  46.7W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 29.7N  45.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 30.9N  42.4W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 31.7N  39.4W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 32.9N  36.1W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  30.0W    80 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nPACKAGE SUGGESTING ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE.  THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER \r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE.  AT 72 \r\nHOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER 25 DEG C WATER TEMPERATURES AND WILL \r\nBEGIN THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/13.  THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION OF FELIX AND ONLY DISAGREE IN\r\nTHE SPEED OF MOTION IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE AVN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND\r\nNEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nAT LONGER RANGES...WHILE APPROACHING THE AZORES...FELIX MAY SLOW\r\nDOWN AS INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 29.7N  45.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 30.7N  43.8W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 31.8N  41.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 32.3N  38.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 33.1N  34.9W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 35.5N  29.4W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF FELIX HAS DISAPPEARED ON IR IMAGERY AND IS NOT \r\nWELL-DEFINED IN THE VISIBLE EITHER.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nSHEAR IS NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nLOWERED TO 95 KT.  BECAUSE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM THE WEAKENING \r\nTREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/12.  THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE \r\nTHE LARGE UPPER COLD LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/30W.  FELIX IS EXPECTED \r\nTO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...SOME SLOWING AND A LEFTWARD TURN AROUND THE \r\nWEAKENING LOW IS LIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD WELL \r\nSTILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...UNLESS THE WESTERLY \r\nSHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER COLD LOW IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 30.5N  45.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 31.4N  43.1W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  39.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 32.6N  36.4W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 34.0N  33.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  29.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 102 \r\nKT...90 KT...AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE AND \r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT FELIX MAY BE IN THE \r\nPROCESS OF LOSING AN INNER EYEWALL.  THIS PROCESS GENERALLY IS \r\nASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND SO THE INTENSITY IS SET AT THE LOWER \r\nRANGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  IF THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW ENOUGH... \r\nAND THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY...SOME REINTENSIFICATION COULD \r\nSTILL OCCUR IF THE OUTER EYEWALL/CONVECTIVE BAND ORGANIZES AND \r\nCONTRACTS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD NEARLY CONSTANT FOR THE \r\nFIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN DROPS OFF AS WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE \r\nHURRICANE FALL OFF.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/13.  FELIX IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST...AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE UPPER\r\nCOLD LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/30W.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A LEFTWARD\r\nTURN AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW IS LIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD WELL\r\nSTILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...UNLESS THE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER COLD LOW IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 31.2N  43.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 32.1N  41.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 32.5N  38.2W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 32.7N  35.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 34.0N  32.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  30.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 90 KT...77\r\nKT...AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\nAT 90 KT AND WILL BE HELD NEARLY CONSTANT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  \r\nAFTER THAT...IT DROPS OFF AS WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE \r\nBECOME COLDER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/14.  FELIX HAS COMPLETED THE TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE UPPER COLD LOW\r\nCURRENTLY NEAR 40N/30W.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A LEFTWARD\r\nTURN AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW IS LIKELY.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE \r\nVERY WELL WITH THE TRACK SO FAR.\r\n\r\nTHE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD WELL\r\nSTILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...UNLESS THE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER COLD LOW IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 31.4N  41.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 31.8N  39.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 32.3N  36.1W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 33.2N  32.9W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  30.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 36.6N  29.4W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE IS THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM SPOT IN THE \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE DATA NEAR THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE \r\nHAS CHANGED AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS A MATURE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL \r\nREMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/13.  FELIX IS BEHAVING HIMSELF AND IS\r\nPRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER COLD LOW \r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 40N/30W.  NEAR THE BEGINNING OF DAY THREE THE \r\nCOLD LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH WITH FELIX NOT FAR BEHIND. \r\nTHE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD STILL \r\nBE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 31.6N  40.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 32.0N  38.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 32.7N  35.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 34.1N  32.9W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 36.0N  30.7W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  29.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM \r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL \r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n\r\nFELIX HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEGUN \r\nTO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS \r\nBASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...T5.0...FROM TAFB.  \r\nHOWEVER... VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BE UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW \r\nCIRRUS LAYER AND INDUCING MID-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHEREFORE... FELIX MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE ADVISORY IS \r\nINDICATING...BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT SO \r\nI HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE INTENSITY ON THE HIGH SIDE UNTIL A DEFINITE \r\nEROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/15. FELIX HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD DUE TO \r\nTHE INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW \r\nIMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE IS BEING INDUCED BY THE HORIZONTALLY LARGE  \r\nAND VERTICALLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT \r\n300 NM NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES...OR ABOUT 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF \r\nFELIX.  THE RESULTING BINARY INTERACTION SHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A MORE \r\nEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL THE DEEP LOW TO THE \r\nNORTH GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  A DEEP \r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTH SEA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO \r\nDIG SRONGLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER EUROPE...WHICH SHOULD AMPLIFY THE \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE IBERIAN \r\nPENINSULA.  WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE \r\nMERIDIONAL...FELIX SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AFTER 36 HOURS AND \r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST...BY 48 \r\nHOURS.  THE STRONG TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST \r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND...BY 48 TO 72 HOURS... \r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO TURN FELIX MORE TOWARD THE EAST AS THE SYSTEM \r\nAPPROACHES OR MOVES THROUGH THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN AFFECTING FELIX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN \r\nAROUND 15-20 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE EASTWARD MOTION WILL \r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE OVER 26-27C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. THEREFORE... \r\nONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL \r\nWHICH BRINGS FELIX DOWN TO 58 KT IN 72 HOURS. NOTE...THE 12 FT SEAS \r\nRADII WERE INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS BASED \r\nON 15/06Z AND 15/09Z SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 31.8N  38.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 31.9N  36.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 32.9N  33.3W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 34.7N  31.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  30.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 37.5N  27.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  CENTRAL DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...\r\nALBEIT MUCH SMALLER IN AREAL COVERAGE NOW.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND VERY SYMMETRICAL.  AT 15/1500Z... \r\nDRIFTING BUOY 41644 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 975.8 MB IN THE NORTHWEST \r\nQUADRANT OF THE SATELLITE-INDICATED EYE...SO THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN \r\nINCREASED TO 975 MB AND THE INTENSITY DECREASED TO 85 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/16. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  FELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT TRACKS AROUND \r\nTHE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE AND VERTICALLY DEEP TROPOSPHERIC \r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.  DURING \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...THE DEEP LOW TO THE NORTH OF FELIX HAS BEGUN TO \r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKEN.  THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO \r\nHAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AND THEIR \r\nFORECAST TRACKS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER THROUGH 36 HOURS.  \r\nHOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. \r\nNOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS SLOW DOWN FELIX IN 24 HOURS AND MAKE THE \r\nCYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY IN 48 HOURS ABOUT 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE \r\nAZORES...AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT.  THE \r\nAVN MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE FELIX NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD \r\nTO A POSITON ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF LAJES IN 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL MODEL \r\nTAKES FELIX TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN ACTUALLY TURNS THE CYCLONE \r\nBACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALMOST ON TOP OF ITS PREVIOUS 36 HOUR FORECAST \r\nTRACK.  THE SCENARIO FORECAST BY THE GFDL SEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED \r\nON ALL THREE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING MODERATE WEST TO \r\nNORTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CYCLONE \r\nBY 72 HOURS. THE AVN FORECAST TRACK WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED GIVEN ITS \r\nEXCELLENT CURRENT RUNNING ERRORS OF LESS THAN 75 NM AT ALL FORECAST \r\nTIMES WITH FELIX.\r\n \r\nONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS \r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AND SSTS \r\nARE WILL BE ABOVE 25C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF FELIX \r\nSLOWS DOWN MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...THEN \r\nTHE CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO MUCH LESS THAN 60-KT AT 72 HOURS \r\nSINCE SSTS ARE ONLY ABOUT 23-24C IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES \r\nISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 32.3N  36.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 32.9N  34.4W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 34.2N  32.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 35.5N  30.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 36.4N  29.6W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 37.3N  28.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AN EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE METEOSAT-7\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES...WHICH MAKES POSITION FIXES A LITTLE\r\nEASIER.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF AN ECLIPSE...THE OO00 UTC PICTURE WAS\r\nNOT AVAILABLE.  THE 0000 UTC POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM\r\nSATELLITE FIXES AT 2200 AND 2300 UTC AND SHOWS THAT AT THIS TIME\r\nFELIX WAS MOVING ON A DUE EAST TRACK AT ABOUT 16 KTS.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT FELIX SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST...AND THUS MY 0300 UTC TRACK\r\nDIRECTION WILL BE 070/16.    \r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING.  FELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND THEN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT TRACKS AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.  DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS\r\nLARGE LOW HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEAKEN.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS APPEAR TO HAVE AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN...AND THEIR FORECAST TRACKS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.  NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS SLOW DOWN FELIX IN 24\r\nHOURS AND MAKE THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY IN 48 HOURS ABOUT 180\r\nNM SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES...AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY\r\nSOUTHWARD AFTER THAT.  THE AVN MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE FELIX\r\nNORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD TO A POSITON ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF\r\nLAJES IN 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL MODEL TAKES FELIX TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nTHEN ACTUALLY TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALMOST ON TOP\r\nOF ITS PREVIOUS 36 HOUR FORECAST TRACK.  THE AVN FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWED GIVEN ITS EXCELLENT FORECAST RESULTS WITH FELIX.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB...77 KT FORM\r\nSAB...AND 65 KT FORM AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE LEFT AT 85 KT.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE PERIOD...AND SSTS ARE WILL BE ABOVE 25C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IF FELIX SLOWS DOWN MORE THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO MUCH LESS\r\nTHAN 60-KT AT 72 HOURS SINCE SSTS ARE ONLY ABOUT 23-24C IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 32.4N  35.3W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 33.2N  33.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 34.5N  31.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 35.5N  30.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 36.0N  29.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 36.0N  27.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n \r\nFELIX'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING...AND THE \r\nCENTRAL FEATURES HAVE DETERIORATED.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING \r\nAND CONVECTION HAS BEEN ERODED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS \r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM \r\nMOVES OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND WITH SOME \r\nINCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY.  \r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 13 KNOTS.  NOT MUCH CHANGE \r\nHAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nNORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION NEAR THE AZORES IS LIFTING OUT AND WEAKENING.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS BUILD A 500 MB RIDGE BEHIND GABRIELLE...WEAKENING THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW\r\nFURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...FELIX MAY BE DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 33.0N  34.2W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 34.0N  32.3W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 35.3N  30.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  29.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 36.5N  28.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  26.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":31,"Date":"2001-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE EYE HAS EXPANDED \r\nTO APPROXIMATELY 80 NM IN DIAMETER...A 16/0900Z PRESSURE REPORT OF \r\n981.4 MB FROM DRIFTING BUOY 44765 LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM NORTHEAST OF \r\nTHE CENTER INDICATES THAT FELIX HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY.  A \r\nPRESSURE OF 977 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80 KT ARE MAINTAINED IN THIS \r\nADVISORY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE OF 77 KT...CI4.5...FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/15.  FELIX REMAINS ON TRACK AND SHOULD \r\nGRADUALLY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SLOW DOWN AS THE \r\nRIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AZORES BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS FORECAST \r\nBY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY.  BY 48 TO 72 HOURS...RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF FELIX \r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE EAST...AND \r\nEVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nSINCE FELIX HAS SUCH A LARGE EYE AND LARGE OVERALL WIND FIELD...IT \r\nWILL TAKE LONGER THE AVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO SPIN DOWN. AS \r\nSUCH...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE EFFECTS OF FELIX IN THE FORM OF LARGE \r\nBATTERING WAVES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 33.8N  32.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 34.9N  31.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  30.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 36.9N  29.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.2N  27.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  26.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":32,"Date":"2001-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR MAY BE STARTING TO DECREASE \r\nAS INDICATED BY A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST \r\nQUADRANT. DRIFTING BUOY 44765 HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF FELIX MOST OF \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON AND HAS REPORTED PRESSURES AS LOW AS 973.8 AT \r\n16/1100Z AND AS HIGH AS 976.0 MB AT 16/1500Z.  THE BUOY IS NOW \r\nOUTSIDE THE EYEWALL AND IS STILL REPORTING 980 TO 983 MB...SO THE \r\nPRESSURE IS ONLY INCREASED TO 979 MB AND THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED \r\nTO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  FELIX HAS MADE A JOG A \r\nLITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT ESSENTIALLY THE CYCLONE \r\nREMAINS ON TRACK AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOW AND MOVE BACK TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY. THE UKMET MODEL TAKES FELIX RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH \r\nTHE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHILE THE AVN AND \r\nNOGAPS TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND KEEP IT AT LEAST 100 NM \r\nSOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS ENSEMBLE \r\nAVERAGE.\r\n \r\nSINCE FELIX REMAINS A RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION...IT WILL TAKE LONGER \r\nTHAN NORMAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE \r\nAROUND 24C NEAR THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST RAPID \r\nWEAKENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALREADY \r\nRE-DEVELOPED OVER THESE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING \r\nIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE EFFECTS OF FELIX IN THE FORM OF LARGE\r\nBATTERING WAVES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 34.7N  32.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 35.7N  30.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 36.4N  29.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 37.0N  29.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 37.2N  28.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 37.0N  26.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":33,"Date":"2001-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THERE IS LOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING FELIX...THERE \r\nIS RECENT SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE \r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BELOW HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH...BUT SINCE DRIFTING BUOY DATA EARLIER SUGGESTED THAT \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES WERE A LITTLE LO...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 65 \r\nKNOTS.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11.  THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS \r\nSLOWING DOWN AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE TO THE \r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS SLIGHTLY INCREASES THE THREAT \r\nTO THE AZORES. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 35.5N  31.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  30.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 36.9N  30.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  29.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 37.0N  28.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 36.5N  26.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":34,"Date":"2001-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 8 KNOTS OR LESS...AS A \r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH BYPASSES THE AREA.  FELIX IS EMBEDDED IN A \r\nSUBTROPICAL LATITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO \r\nFOR A WHILE.  NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE \r\nRIGHT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...AND SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NO LONGER BE A \r\nHURRICANE.  MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IS MAINTAINED ON THIS \r\nADVISORY...AS EARLIER BUOY OBSERVATIONS IMPLIED THAT FELIX IS \r\nSOMEHWAT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  SINCE \r\nOCEAN WATERS ARE NOT VERY WARM...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 35.5N  31.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 36.2N  30.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 36.4N  29.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 36.5N  28.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  27.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 36.0N  24.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":35,"Date":"2001-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...FELIX HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND \r\nHAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR \r\nHAS DISPLACED THE MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE...WHILE \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHRINK.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/03.  HOWEVER...A RETURN TO A MORE \r\nEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS \r\nFORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND \r\nBEYOND.  THE NARROW RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AZORES THAT HAS BLOCKED \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION OF FELIX IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD \r\nAND BECOMING MORE NARROW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS \r\nSHOULD ALSO ALLOW FELIX TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER TODAY.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A \r\nBLEND BETWEEN THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE MUCH \r\nSLOWER THAN THE AVN MODEL.\r\n\r\nFELIX IS FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES \r\nBENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 24-25C...WHICH IS \r\nSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MODERATE CONVECTION.  IF THE \r\nSHEAR WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FELIX COULD \r\nRE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IF CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 34.9N  31.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 34.9N  30.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 34.9N  29.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 35.2N  28.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 35.3N  26.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N  24.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":36,"Date":"2001-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS UNDER \r\nLIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...DURING \r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEPER CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED \r\nNEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/02...BASED PRIMARILY ON AN \r\nEXPECTED EASTWARD DRIFT TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.  THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS NOW MUCH MORE WIDELY DIVERGENT. THE UKMET...AVN...AND \r\nGFDL MODELS TAKE FELIX SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER ITS \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS VARY BETWEEN A \r\nSLOW NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK \r\nAND CLOSE TO THE VICBAR AND GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS IS CONSISTENT \r\nWITH FELIX REMAINING A DEEPER CIRCULATION THAN THE UKMET...AVN...AND \r\nGFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET NUDGED \r\nSLOWLY EASTWARD BY THE LARGER-SCALE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN \r\nINDICATED IN THE 12Z U.S. UPPER-AIR DATA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  \r\n \r\nFELIX IS FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nBENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 24-25C...WHICH IS\r\nSUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AS INDICATED \r\nBY THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. IT IS \r\nSTILL POSSIBLE THAT FELIX COULD RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO HURRICANE \r\nINTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IF THE CONVECTION WRAPS BACK \r\nAROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER...IF FELIX DOES \r\nNOT BEGIN TO MOVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR IF IT MOVES BACK TO \r\nTHE SOUTHWEST...THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COLD UPWELLED \r\nWATER AND WOULD LIKELY DIE A QUICK DEATH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 35.1N  31.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 34.8N  30.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 34.7N  29.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 34.8N  28.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  27.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  26.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":37,"Date":"2001-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n \r\nFELIX IS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE LIMITED CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SSMI PASS AND\r\nCONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS OR MAY BE\r\nDRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING\r\nAND FAVORS A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MOTION.  IN FACT...THE AVN AND\r\nGFDL AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BRING A WEAKENING\r\nFELIX SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nSTATE OF THE ART DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND MOVES FELIX VERY SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED.  HOWEVER...IF FELIX SURVIVES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH\r\n...IT MAY REACH A POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SST AND SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nMAY OCCUR.  NONE OF THE MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 34.8N  32.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 34.5N  32.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 34.0N  32.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 33.5N  32.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  33.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 32.5N  33.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":38,"Date":"2001-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLIES ARE DISPLACING WHAT APPEARS TO\r\nBE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RE-TRACING ITS PREVIOUS\r\nPATH...AND THUS MOVING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE PROBABLY BEEN COOLED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY BY UPWELLING.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING...AND THEREFORE FELIX IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW STORM\r\nSTRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  BEYOND THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS THE INTENSITY SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FELIX COULD\r\nEVENTUALLY FIND SOME WARMER WATERS AND/OR A MORE HOSPITABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRIFT.  FELIX IS BEING STEERED\r\nBY THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE GFDL...AVN...NOGAPS...AND U.K.  MET OFFICE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nTHE SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS OR SO.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 34.6N  32.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 34.3N  32.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 33.8N  32.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 33.3N  32.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 33.0N  33.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 32.5N  33.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":39,"Date":"2001-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION... \r\nWHICH IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS \r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS\r\nINTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 1001.2 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM \r\nBUOY 44765...WHICH HAS BEEN INDICATING A STEADY RISE IN PRESSURE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...OR 190/02. \r\nA GENERAL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS SINCE \r\nFELIX HAS BECOME REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.  \r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFDL MODEL...\r\nAND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nFELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER\r\nITS OWN COLD WAKE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY \r\nAIR ENTRAINMENT IS OCCURRING...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT THE \r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 34.7N  32.1W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 34.3N  32.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 33.6N  32.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 32.8N  32.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 32.3N  33.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  33.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felix","Adv":40,"Date":"2001-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION THAT REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATING 25 \r\nKNOTS. THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY BUOY 44765...WHICH \r\nIS NEAR THE CENTER OF FELIX AND HAS BEEN INDICATING A STEADY RISE IN \r\nPRESSURE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST...OR 090/02.\r\nA GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD SINCE FELIX IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN \r\nWEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS...WHICH DRIFT THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH. \r\n \r\nFELIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE FORECAST TRACK \r\nREMAINS OVER COLD SSTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY\r\nAIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL HAMPER THE \r\nRE-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 34.7N  31.6W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 34.5N  31.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 33.9N  31.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 33.4N  31.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 32.9N  32.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  33.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felix","Adv":41,"Date":"2001-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD...BUT RATHER\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nA QUIK SCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT AND THE SHIP KAKF \r\nCONFIRMED 25 KNOTS AT ITS LOCATION WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THUS \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE \r\nNO CHANCE OF REGENERATION AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...OR\r\n180/02. A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING AT THE LOW\r\nLEVELS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DRIFT\r\nFELIX TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 34.5N  31.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 34.2N  31.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 33.6N  31.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 33.0N  32.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 32.5N  32.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 31.0N  33.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n\r\nSURFACE DATA SHOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE \r\nSOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.  DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW MUCH \r\nCURVATURE...BUT IT IS DEEMED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW \r\nPRESSURE CENTER TO WARRANT CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL \r\nDEPRESSION.  THERE IS NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...AND WATER \r\nVAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM \r\nMOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...TOWARD \r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  THIS COULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE...SO \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  \r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE OF OPINION AMONG THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AS TO HOW FAVORABLE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL \r\nBECOME.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SHOWS A DIFFLUENT...FAIRLY LIGHT \r\nWIND REGIME AT 200 MB OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN 2-3 DAYS...WHEREAS \r\nTHE AVN MODEL SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF \r\nTHE GULF.  THE FORMER REGIME COULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE...WHEREAS THE LATTER FAVORS A MORE BAROCLINIC-TYPE \r\nDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE EASTERN \r\nGULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE AVN MODEL INDICATES THAT THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CARRY THE CYCLONE TOWARD AND OVER THE \r\nCENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS MODEL \r\nINDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF. \r\nTHE U.K. MET OFFICE IS MORE OR LESS IN BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS...AND \r\nSHOWS LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nA COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 25.5N  84.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 25.4N  84.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 25.4N  85.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 26.0N  85.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 26.5N  85.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 28.0N  84.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PROBLEMS\r\nWITH SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO\r\nNOT INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nMOTION OR STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 250/4.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT CAME IN MOMENTS AGO\r\nPLACES THE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE ADVISORY POSITION.\r\n\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...AND NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD INHIBIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS THE AVN SHOWS MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELAXES.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 72 KT IN 72 HOURS...AND THE\r\nGFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM UP TO NEAR 100 KT.  THE UKMET...ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...KEEPS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE UNTIL THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS \r\nAGGRESSIVE THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH KNOWS LITTLE \r\nABOUT HOW POORLY ORGANIZED THE DEPRESSION IS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE EASTERN\r\nGULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...MOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE \r\nSYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE \r\nOUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHWEST \r\nTOWARD THE PANHANDLE ON DAY THREE.  I SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY BE \r\nRELATED TO THE EXTREMELY RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE \r\nMODEL...AND THAT THE MODEL CYCLONE MAY BE HELPING TO DEVELOP A BIT \r\nOF A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  FOR THE TIME BEING...THIS IS NOT \r\nCONSIDERED TO BE A LIKELY SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 25.4N  84.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 25.3N  85.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 25.6N  85.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 26.2N  85.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 27.0N  85.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 28.5N  84.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nSURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE \r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  EAST GULF BUOY 42003 HAS A PRESSURE BELOW 1008 MB \r\nAND A 24-HR PRESSURE DROP OF MORE THAN 4 MB.  DEEP CONVECTION \r\nREMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO NORTHERLY \r\nSHEAR...BUT BANDED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE\r\n...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nWIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 36 HOURS ON WHICH DIRECTION TO TAKE ERIN.  \r\nNOGAPS TAKES ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO\r\n...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER MODEL.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH \r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER TODAY \r\nAND POSSIBLY CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  HOWEVER...BY \r\n36 TO 48 HOURS...A SHORTAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS \r\nFOREACST TO DROP DOWN AND GRADUALLY PICK UP THE CYCLONE AND BEGIN \r\nMOVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED \r\nCLOSELY AND THE OFFICIAL FORWCAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO \r\nNORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.  HOWEVER... BY \r\n36 TO 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE \r\nWEAK AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION \r\nBEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 25.7N  85.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 25.8N  86.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 26.4N  86.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 27.2N  86.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N  86.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 29.0N  84.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n\r\nMORNING VISUAL IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER \r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL LACK \r\nCURVATURE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS QUITE BROAD.  SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW STRONG WINDS...BUT 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER \r\nGUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH \r\nOF THE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWINDS COMING TOWARD THE DEPRESSION...SO NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS \r\nLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL \r\nRUN INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nTWO...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE U.K. \r\nMET OFFICE MODEL ALSO SHOWS DEEPENING...BUT THIS MODEL MAY BE \r\nDEPICTING SOMETHING OTHER THAN A TRUE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COMMENCING IN A DAY OR \r\nSO...AND IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW SHIPS.\r\n\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY WEST...BUT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED.  \r\nSTEERING IS WEAK...AND THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION OR CENTER \r\nREFORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE AVN MODEL GRADUALLY \r\nDEVELOPS A POSITIVELY-TILTED 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE COULD TURN THE \r\nCYCLONE EASTWARD...AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\nHOWEVER SOME OTHER GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET \r\nMODEL...ARE FARTHER TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 25.7N  85.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 25.8N  86.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 26.5N  87.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 27.5N  86.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 28.0N  85.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 28.5N  83.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER \r\nORGANIZED AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A \r\nLITTLE MORE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED \r\nUP A BIT.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE SOON TO GIVE A \r\nMORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF BOTH INTENSITY AND LOCATION.  AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS \r\nMODIFIED THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO \r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASED THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT.  ACCORDING TO \r\nTHE LATEST AVN RUN...THIS SMALL TROUGH MOVES VERY SLOWLY AND IF THIS \r\nVERIFIES...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE MORE \r\nAGGRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER MAY BE MEANDERING...OR REFORMING WITHIN THE CONVECTION TO \r\nTHE SOUTH.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  A MID-LATITUDE \r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS TROUGH WILL BE \r\nABLE TO STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE \r\nGFDL...GFDN...AND AVN MODELS.  THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL SHOWS VERY \r\nLITTLE MOTION...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN TAKING IT \r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST \r\nGULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A COMPROMISE \r\nBETWEEN THESE DIVERSE OPTIONS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 25.5N  85.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 25.5N  85.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.2N  86.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 27.2N  86.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 27.9N  85.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 29.0N  83.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION\r\nWITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  CONVECTION IS NOT\r\nWELL ORGANIZED WITH RESPECT TO THIS CENTER...BEING ORIENTED IN A\r\nLINEAR BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS\r\nIMPROVED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE WATER IS OF\r\nCOURSE QUITE WARM AND THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT...GIVEN THE\r\nVERY POOR CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...IS MUCH LESS THAN THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO REACH ABOUT 100 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/2...AND THE RECON POSITION IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND ALL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM.  NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EVOLUTION BECOMES COMPLICATED BY A SHARP\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE AVN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nFROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IN THE GULF AT THAT TIME WILL BE CRUCIAL TO ITS ULTIMATE\r\nTRACK.  IN THE AVN...THE CYCLONE IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHERE IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND GETS DRAGGED EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA.  MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH TRIGGERS A SEPARATE\r\nBAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF\r\nTHE GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE UKMET HAS A VERY SIMILAR\r\nLARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION...HOWEVER...THE MODEL CYCLONE DRIFTS\r\nWESTWARD IN THE GULF DURING THE FIRST 48 H...WHERE IT IS NOT IN A\r\nPOSITION TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH.  THIS OPTION IS ALSO FAVORED\r\nBY THE NOGAPS AND ETA MODELS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM IN THE\r\nGULF FOR SOME TIME.  GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION...AND ESPECIALLY THE SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE PULLED \r\nBACK A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND SHOW A SLOWER \r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 25.2N  85.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.3N  86.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 25.6N  86.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 26.2N  86.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  86.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 28.5N  84.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEVELOPED MECHANICAL\r\nPROBLEMS ENROUTE TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT AND HAD TO TURN\r\nBACK...  SO NO IN-SITU DATA WAS AVAILABLE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nHOWEVER...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST ALONG WITH INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED AND\r\nPERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH REMAINS SITUATED JUST\r\nSOUTH OR SOUTHEAST OF EAST GULF BUOY 42003.  AT 13/06Z SHIP\r\nWPKD...LOCATED ABOUT 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...REPORTED A 32\r\nKT SUSTAINED WIND AND A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST DUE TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  THERE REMAINS\r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC FORECAST MODELS...\r\nESPECIALLY AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS.  NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...\r\nWHILE THE AVN...GFDL...AND GFDN MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nQUASI-STATIONARY FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY MOVE IT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A\r\nRATHER FORMIDABLE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BY 72 HOURS...THE UKMET MODEL\r\nBEGINS TO TAKE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE AVN\r\nMODEL TAKES THE DEPRESSION INLAND NEAR THE CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AREA IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE GFDN AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND\r\nALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST OVER OR JUST NORTH OF TAMPA BAY IN\r\nABOUT 60 HOURS.  THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD AMPLIFY AND BECOME MORE MERIDIONAL\r\nAS THE U.S.  WEST COAST TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE TOP OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  THIS SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD MOTION\r\nAND KEEP THE CYCLONE IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nAS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU.S.  LONGWAVE TROUGH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE NUDGE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE CURRENT LONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN AND THE AVN-GFDL-UKMET\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF LIFTING OUT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU.S...  WHICH RESULTS IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR BY 36 HOURS...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT\r\nLOW LATITUDE.  GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION\r\nMUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THAN 27N LATITUDE IN 36 HOURS...\r\nSTRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY OWING TO THE DECREASING SHEAR PATTERN.\r\nBY 48 HOURS...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN TO RE-INFORCE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH RESULTS IN AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nJETSTREAM WIND SPEEDS FROM NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH\r\nFLORIDA.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO THE RIGHT-REAR JET\r\nENTRANCE REGION SHOULD ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW AND MASS DIVERGENCE IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BASED ON THE NEAR\r\n30C SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THIS SYSTEM\r\nUP TO 100 KT JUST PRIOR TO ITS FORECAST LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 25.2N  85.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 25.2N  85.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 25.6N  86.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 26.2N  86.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 27.0N  85.8W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 28.5N  83.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n\r\nTWO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...FROM SHIPS WITH CALL SIGNS DCUW AND \r\nWCZ5238...OF 35 AND 40-KNOT WINDS RESPECTIVELY...AS WELL AS DVORAK \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORT UPGRADING THE \r\nCYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE.  THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BEING CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST.  IN FACT...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER \r\nIS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION.  THE U.K MET AND AVN MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVEL \r\nWINDS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES TO MEANDER AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS \r\nQUASI-STATIONARY.  THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC.  \r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. \r\nDOES NOT APPEAR TO BE INFLUENTIAL ENOUGH TO PICK UP GABRIELLE.  THE \r\nNCEP GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL SHOWS A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE \r\nGREATER ANTILLES OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THAT MODEL PUSHES \r\nTHE STORM NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY STEERING ON THE WESTERN \r\nSIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS MODEL CONTINUES TO TAKE THE SYSTEM \r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD...AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW \r\nLITTLE MOVEMENT.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE \r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE AVN.  THE 06Z GFDL \r\nRUN IS FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH OF MY TRACK.  OBVIOUSLY...THERE IS A \r\nGREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 25.2N  85.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 25.5N  85.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  85.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  85.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  85.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 29.5N  83.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND THE CENTER TO BE LOCATED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS POSITION.  IT IS NOT YET KNOWN WHETHER\r\nTHIS THE RESULT OF A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER NEARER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...OR ACTUAL MOTION.  WSR-88D ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...SO INITIAL MOTION IS SET\r\nTO 045/5.  THIS WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST IN A LITTLE\r\nOVER 24 HOURS...SO WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.  IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT A POINT...AND\r\nBANDS OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  IN FACT...THESE BANDS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WARNING\r\nAREA.  THIS WEATHER WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST EVEN IF THE PRESUMED\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS NOT MAINTAINED.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL \r\nTROUGH THAT IS SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. IN SPITE OF THE \r\nMARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS \r\nSYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT THE COAST. \r\n\r\nAT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FROM GABRIELLE IS \r\nVERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 25.5N  84.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 26.1N  83.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 27.0N  82.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 28.0N  82.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 29.0N  81.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 31.0N  78.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MONITORING\r\nGABRIELLE EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED AN ERRATIC MOTION...\r\nFIRST JUMPING ABOUT 20 NM TO THE WEST AND THEN ABOUT 30 NM TO THE\r\nEAST.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 996 MB...WITH A SECOND\r\nLATER FIX OF 997 MB AND 52 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE STORM IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH BURSTS\r\nOF CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 055/4.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-4 JET SHOW A SHARP\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE LOW LEVEL\r\nRIDGING SURROUNDS THE SYSTEM.  THE RIDGING SUGGESTS THE MOTION\r\nSHOULD REMAIN SLOW...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR WITH\r\nSOME ACCELERATION THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SOME\r\nERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY AS THE CENTER RE-FORMS DUE TO THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE G-4 DATA INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE OVER\r\nGABRIELLE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE STORM...DIVERGENCE FROM\r\nTHE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA WILL LIKELY\r\nMAINTAIN STRONG CONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS GABRIELLE TO 60\r\nKT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BE A HURRICANE AT\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n \r\nAT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FROM GABRIELLE IS\r\nVERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.  HEAVY RAINBANDS ARE\r\nALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND\r\nKEYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 25.5N  84.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  83.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  82.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 28.1N  81.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 29.0N  80.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 31.0N  77.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nAS USUAL IN THIS SHEARED SYSTEM...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE \r\nAND IT APPEARS TO KEEP RE-FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE \r\nCONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT DROPPED \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...992 OR 993 MB...THE RECON REPORTED A BAND A \r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...70 TO 75 KNOTS...NEARING THE \r\nWEST COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.  GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHEAST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF 9 KNOTS. THIS FASTER MOTION WILL \r\nBRING THE CENTER INLAND IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE \r\nSTRONGEST WINDS AND RAINS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER AND ARE \r\nALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. DO NOT FOCUS ON \r\nTHE CENTER.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS FLORIDA \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY.\r\nGABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER WATER IN THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN \r\n24 AND 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nIN TERMS OF CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE \r\nTHE TYPICAL PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN \r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IT COULD PRODUCE \r\nGUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER \r\nWHILE CROSSING FLORIDA.  SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR WHEN IT MOVES \r\nBACK OVER WATER.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 26.1N  83.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 27.0N  82.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 28.2N  81.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 29.5N  80.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 30.5N  78.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n\r\nGABRIELLE TRIED TO BECOME A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...AS\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED THE PRESSURE DROPPED TO 980 MB AND 700 MB WINDS WERE\r\nAS HIGH AS 81 KT.  HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS WERE NEAR THE VENICE\r\nC-MAN STATION...WHICH AT THAT TIME WAS REPORTING GUSTS TO ABOUT\r\n40 KT.  IT THUS APPEARS THAT THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DID NOT\r\nFULLY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND THAT GABRIELLE REMAINED A 60\r\nKT TROPICAL STORM.  SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS MOVED ASHORE NEAR\r\nVENICE AND IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN OVER LAND.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 50 KT BASED ON OBS FROM THE VENICE C-MAN STATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/13.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST WEST AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nGABRIELLE...WITH A SECOND TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARDS THE STORM.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS\r\nA CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED.  THE AVN REALLY\r\nSLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN...TAKING MORE THAN 24 HR TO CROSS FLORIDA.\r\nIN DEFERENCE TO THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST SLOWS THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nDOWN SOMEWHAT WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO \r\nTHE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nGETS A LITTLE TRICKY ONCE THE STORM EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC.\r\nON THE PLUS SIDE ARE THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS AND UPPER LEVEL\r\nDIVERGENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  ON THE MINUS SIDE IS\r\nSTRONG SHEAR AS INDICATED IN THE AVN AND SHIPS MODELS.  THE\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE ATLANTIC...BUT\r\nNOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SHOULD GABRIELLE MOVE\r\nFASTER THAN FORECAST...IT COULD INTENSIFY MORE THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 27.6N  82.2W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 28.7N  81.4W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 30.1N  80.3W    45 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 31.4N  78.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 32.5N  76.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 35.5N  71.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY\r\nDURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST REMAINING CONVECTION\r\nIN BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS\r\nOF 35-40 KT WINDS NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...PARTICULARLY AT\r\nTHE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN STATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10...ALTHOUGH RADAR AND SURFACE DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT A NORTHWARD WOBBLE MAY BE STARTING.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT A\r\nGENERAL NORTHEASTERLY MOTION...WITH PERHAPS A CHANCE OF A NORTHWARD\r\nJOG EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY\r\nSUPPORTS THIS WITH SOME VARIATIONS IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALLS FOR SOME SLOWING IN\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nSHOULD THE POSSIBLE WOBBLE TURN OUT TO BE AN ACTUALLY TRACK\r\nCHANGE...THE FORECAST TRACK MIGHT HAVE TO BE SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TRICKY ONCE THE STORM EMERGES OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC.  ON THE PLUS SIDE ARE THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS AND UPPER\r\nLEVEL DIVERGENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS.  ON THE MINUS SIDE\r\nIS STRONG SHEAR AS INDICATED IN THE AVN AND SHIPS MODELS...AND\r\nSTRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL DRYING INTRUDING INTO THE STORM ON WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY.  THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nWHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GABRIELLE COULD THREATEN OTHER PORTIONS\r\nOF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...THAT THREAT WILL BE A FUNCTION OF BOTH\r\nTHE ACTUAL TRACK AND HOW MUCH OF THE STORM IS LEFT WHEN IT EMERGES\r\nINTO THE ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 28.6N  81.6W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 29.4N  80.6W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 30.6N  79.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 31.7N  77.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 33.0N  75.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 36.5N  69.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE A NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO HELP LOCATE THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/09.  BUT IF THE WIND\r\nDOESN'T SHIFT AT ORLANDO SOON...THEN THE FORWARD MOTION COULD BE A\r\nLOT LESS...EVEN STATIONARY...OR THE CENTER COULD BE ELONGATING \r\nNORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST AS IT IS SHEARED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.   ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING GABRIELLE \r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN \r\nTHE WESTERLIES NEAR THE   US EAST COAST.  BUT SOME LIKE THE AVIATION \r\nMODEL ARE RATHER SLOW WITH THE STORM NOT BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE \r\nTROUGH OR HAVING IT STRETCHED OUT FROM THE SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...FASTER THAT THE \r\nAVN AND NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAT THE GFDL AND UKMET.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER BUT RAIN IS STILL\r\nFALLING NEAR THE CENTER.  THE STRONGEST WIND LATELY WAS 48 KNOTS\r\nSUSTAINED AT THE ST AUGUSTINE BUOY AT 22Z...ELEVATION 16.5 METERS.\r\nAT 01Z THE WIND THERE WAS 41 KNOTS.  SO I AM GOING WITH 40 KNOTS FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND THIS IS ONLY OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE\r\nCOAST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE FORECASTING\r\nINTENSIFICATION WITH THE GFDL AT 103 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL AND SHIPS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSERVATIVE INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS\r\nAND THIS INTENSIFICATION...IF ANY...COULD BE FROM EXTRATROPICAL \r\nENERGY SOURCES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 29.3N  81.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 30.5N  80.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 31.5N  78.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 32.5N  76.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 33.5N  73.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 36.5N  67.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE CERTAINLY DOES NOT HAVE THE PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME.  IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUDED\r\nFRONTAL LOW.  IT HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A NON-SYMMETRIC WIND\r\nFIELD AND IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...GABRIELLE HAS MAINTAINED PRESSURES LOWER\r\nTHAN 999 MB DESPITE MOVING OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR MORE WITH\r\n40-KNOT WINDS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE IT IS NO LONGER PURELY \r\nTROPICAL. \r\n\r\nGABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nMOVING OVER THE GULF STREAM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE WARM\r\nWATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE\r\nGABRIELLE COULD ALSO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GABRIELLE SHOULD RESUME \r\nA NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS \r\nIS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH INTENSITY OR TRACK \r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE  \r\nUNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 28.7N  80.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 29.3N  80.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 30.0N  77.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 31.5N  74.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 33.0N  71.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 36.5N  65.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n\r\nGABRIELLE HAS MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST DURING THE MORNING.  THE\r\nSTORM CURRENTLY MORE RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS AND CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE SURFACE CENTER.  DESPITE THE LACK\r\nOF CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS 998 MB WITH\r\nAIRCRAFT MEASURED WINDS OF 59 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND 58\r\nKT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT\r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS AND AN OBSERVATION OF 42 KT FROM THE\r\nST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN STATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/6...AND RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SINCE\r\n12Z SUGGEST IT MAY BE MOVING EVEN FASTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT GABRIELLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...\r\nWITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND A\r\nBROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SUPPORTS A GENERAL EAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK...AND NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nIS JUST A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SOME\r\nADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT PACKAGE IF\r\nGABRIELLE IS ACTUALLY MOVING FASTER THAN 6-8 KT.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF\r\nGABRIELLE.  THE FIRST IS THAT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION AND PREVENT RE-DEVELOPMENT.\r\nTHE SECOND IS THAT CONVECTION WILL RETURN AND SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nWILL OCCUR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMBINATION OF THESE TWO\r\nPOSSIBILITIES...CALLING FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST\r\n12 HR FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING.  A THIRD POSSIBILITY IS THAT\r\nTHE CENTER MIGHT TRY TO REFORM CLOSER TO ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...WHERE GABRIELLE IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\nIF THIS OCCURS...GABRIELLE MIGHT RE-INTENSIFY AS A HYBRID SYSTEM.\r\nONE FINAL POSSIBILITY IS THAT GABRIELLE MIGHT MERGE WITH THE\r\nFRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 28.8N  79.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 29.2N  78.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 30.2N  76.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 31.9N  73.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 33.7N  70.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  64.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n\r\nSHIPS DHER AND OZQP2 REPORTED 44 AND 43 KT NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER\r\nAT 18Z...SO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT.  THAT BEING\r\nSAID...GABRIELLE STILL DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE VERY TROPICAL.  WHILE\r\nCONVECTION IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN EARLIER...THE NEAREST\r\nCONVECTION IS STILL ABOUT 75 NM FROM THE CENTER AND LOOKS LIKE\r\nIT HAS AS MUCH TO DO WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT DOES WITH\r\nGABRIELLE.  SAB HAS CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM AS EXTRATROPICAL...WHILE\r\nTAFB IS CALLING IT SUBTROPICAL.  THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE\r\nCONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT\r\nIT HAS MERGED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED TO 055/13...AND ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT-\r\nTERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN FASTER.  THE STORM IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE STILL SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES IN REGARDS TO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  THE FIRST...RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT THE STORM IS\r\nNOW EMBEDDED IN.  THE SECOND...RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A HYBRID\r\nCYCLONE...IS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT OF THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION CAUSED BY INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE\r\nTHIRD POSSIBILITY IS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nNOTABLE THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING\r\nOF GABRIELLE AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A COMBINATION OF THE SECOND AND THIRD POSSIBILITIES...CALLING\r\nFOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT\r\n72 HR.  GABRIELLE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLIER IF THE\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT PERSIST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 30.1N  78.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 31.2N  76.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 32.6N  73.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 34.1N  71.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  67.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 39.5N  61.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001\r\n \r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/12...GABRIELLE SEEMS TO BE\r\nRIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE GUIDANCE AGREES CLOSELY\r\nON A CONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS AS THE STORM IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSHIPS REPORTS INDICATE THE WINDS ARE UP TO 50 KNOTS NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER NOT FAR FROM THE US EAST COAST.  THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF 50\r\nKNOT WIND SPEEDS IN OTHER QUADRANTS FROM RECON AND GOES CLOUD DRIFT\r\nWINDS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO 50 KNOTS OR SO THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.\r\nGABRIELLE DOES NOT APPEAR VERY TROPICAL ON INFRARED IMAGES.  ALL OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS NORTH OR EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS 30 KNOTS OR MORE IN THE AVIATION MODEL.  SO IF GABRIELLE DOES\r\nMAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...IT WILL PROBABLY DO SO AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM WITH A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...UNLESS THE WARM GULFSTREAM\r\nSSTS PLAY A ROLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 30.8N  77.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 31.8N  75.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 33.3N  72.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.7N  70.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 36.1N  67.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 39.0N  62.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON REPORTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM HAS BECOME \r\nELONGATED...MORE LIKE A TROUGH.   THEIR DATA ALSO INDICATED LITTLE \r\nOR NO TEMPERATURE RISE AT THE 850 MB CENTER.  THESE OBSERVATIONS \r\nSUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING \r\nEXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST...AS IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING OVER WARM \r\nWATERS...AND THEREFORE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE AT TROPICAL \r\nRE-DEVELOPMENT.  THUS GABRIELLE IS BEING KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nFOR NOW.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES DO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE OF \r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE BROAD CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF WESTERLIES AND THE \r\nSTEERING CURRENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS GABRIELLE MOVES FARTHER TO \r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEAST.  INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A \r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONES.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE \r\nLATEST AVN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB WITH \r\nGABRIELLE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 31.1N  76.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 31.9N  74.4W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 33.0N  71.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 34.0N  68.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  65.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON REPORTS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE \r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED \r\nSLIGHTLY.  A RECON REPORT AT 16/1140Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE \r\nDOWN TO 995 MB...WHILE THE 16/1328Z REPORT INDICATED 1500 FT \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN DEVELOPING \r\nCONVECTION.  THERFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT \r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  RECON ALSO INDICATED THE TEMPERATURE IN THE \r\nCENTER HAS WARMED AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING \r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE...ALL OF WHICH \r\nSUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE IS STILL A WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/17. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN \r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TAKING GABRIELLE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS \r\nAN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEXT TROUGH TO FINALLY PICK UP THE \r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS \r\nSTATES AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE GABRIELLE TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FOREACST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK \r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS MODEL ENSEMBLE AVERAGE.\r\n \r\nSURFACE ANALYSES OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATE THAT THE COLD HIGH \r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND \r\nTHAT THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF GABRIELLE HAS MADE LITTLE \r\nPROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE \r\nMAY STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND REMAIN MORE \r\nTROPICAL-LIKE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE \r\nTROUGH FINALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM AND MAKES GABRIELLE MORE \r\nBAROCLINIC...OR AT LEAST SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE.  UNLESS DEEP \r\nCONVECTION DEVELOPS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER...LITTLE ADDITIONAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THERE IS LESS DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE \r\nSYSTEM TODAY...SO MORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 31.9N  74.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 32.7N  71.5W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 33.9N  68.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 35.3N  65.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 36.7N  63.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 40.0N  57.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE \r\nOF THE RAGGED EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TODAY.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT REPORT \r\nBACK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON THE EXACT INNER-CORE \r\nCONDITIONS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY FROM 35 KT FROM SAB \r\nTO 50-55 KT FROM KGWC FOR SUBTROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES... \r\nRESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/14. GABRIELLE HAS MADE A SLIGHT \r\nJOG TO THE EAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF A SIGNIFICANT \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS GOING TO PERSIST...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO \r\nCLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK \r\nIS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE \r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON \r\nTURNING GABRIELLE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY 12 HOURS...AND THEN \r\nCONTINUING ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER \r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A \r\nBLEND OF THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS. THE UKMET MODEL IS NOW THE LEFT- \r\nMOST MODEL OF THE ENTIRE GUIDANCE SUITE AND TAKES GABRIELLE RAPIDLY \r\nACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS.  THIS SEEMS A LITTLE \r\nEXCESSIVE BASED ON THE MORE ZONAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS \r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA BY \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...IT IS QUITE \r\nPOSSIBLE THAT GABRIELLE MAY STAY ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE FRONTAL \r\nBOUNDARY AND REMAIN MORE TROPICAL-LIKE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 \r\nHOURS...UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH FINALLY PICKS UP THE SYSTEM \r\nAND MAKES GABRIELLE MORE BAROCLINIC.  WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS \r\nPERSISTED NORTH OF THE CENTER TODAY...LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS DIRECTLY \r\nOVER THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 32.3N  72.6W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 33.0N  70.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  66.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.0N  63.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 37.5N  60.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001\r\n\r\nA NOAA AIRCRAFT GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED 68 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTER JUST \r\nABOVE THE SURFACE AT ABOUT 00Z.  GABRIELLE IS UPGRADED TO 65 \r\nKNOTS...A HURRICANE...ON THIS BASIS.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS HIGHLY \r\nSHEARED AND ASYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND EAST OF THE \r\nCENTER.  IS THE SYSTEM STILL TROPICAL?  PERHAPS.  ACCORDING TO THE \r\nPENN STATE CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS FROM THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL...THE \r\nTEMPERATURE STRUCTURE IS NEAR NEUTRAL.  SO WE WILL HOLD ON TO \r\nTROPICAL STATUS FOR A WHILE LONGER.  ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS \r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.  IN \r\nCONTRAST THE GFDL AND UKMET FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK ARE A LITTLE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE IN PHILOSOPHY FROM \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GABRIELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND \r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSHIP REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR EXPANDING THE \r\n34-KNOT WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nTHE GALE WARNING FOR BERMUDA IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 33.6N  70.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 34.8N  67.7W    65 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 36.5N  64.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 38.0N  62.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 39.5N  59.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 44.0N  53.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A NOT VERY TROPICAL-LOOKING APPEARANCE\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGES.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THIS IS PRODUCING A COMMA-CLOUD\r\nSIGNATURE THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE STRONG WINDS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...AS INDICATED BY AIRCRAFT DATA YESTERDAY.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE AROUND 12Z.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR FELIX TO LOSE WHATEVER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS \r\nIT HAS BY 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED SUBSTANTIALLY AND IS NOW NEAR 20\r\nKNOTS...REQUIRING AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE SPEED IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\nGABRIELLE SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nCURRENT NHC FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST AVN\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH IS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BE AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH...TO THE \r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...OF BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 34.6N  67.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 35.7N  64.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  60.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 39.5N  57.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 45.0N  48.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON HAS BEEN OUT IN THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AND FOUND 85 \r\nKT 5000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN DEEP CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A \r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB.  THIS INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE HAS \r\nSTRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17. GABRIELLE HAS MADE A SLIGHT \r\nJOG TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK...BUT THIS \r\nIS LIKELY JUST A SHORT TERM MOTION...POSSIBLY DUE TO RE-DEVELOPMENT \r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS BASE \r\nCOURSE OF ABOUT 060 DEGREES AS A LONG FETCH OF WESTERLY MID-TO \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE \r\nCYCLONE LATER TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE \r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN RETURNS TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 36 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...BUT IS CLOSEST TO THE AVN MODEL. THE \r\nNOGAPS MODEL APPEARS TO BE MUCH TOO FAST AND THE UKMET MODEL SEEMS \r\nTOO FAR TO THE LEFT BY TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST \r\nNEWFOUNDLAND IN THE FACE OF SUCH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AT THAT \r\nLATITUDE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER TRICKY SINCE I AM UNCERTAIN AS TO \r\nWHEN THE SYSTEM WILL ACTUALLY MAKE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  \r\nHOWEVER...EVEN SOME BAROCLINIC EFFECTS COULD KEEP GABRIELLE FAIRLY \r\nSTRONG IN THE LATER PERIODS...SO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST \r\nWAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 35.8N  65.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  62.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 38.7N  60.2W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 40.4N  57.8W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 42.9N  53.7W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 48.0N  43.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE REMAINS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SYSTEM DESPITE THE \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. IN FACT...VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING \r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGESTS THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING \r\nTO FORM AS MODERATE CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED ABOUT THREE-FOURTHS OF \r\nTHE WAY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE GOOD IN \r\nTHE NORTH SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/15. GABRIELLE HAS RETURNED TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BASE COURSE.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nIN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON TAKING GABRIELLE OFF IN A GENERAL \r\nNORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION.  THE UKMET IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE \r\nMODEL PACK AND NO LANGER TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST \r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  THIS APPEARS VERY REASONABLE GIVEN THE LONG FETCH OF \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND \r\nEASTERN CANADA.  IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO GET \r\nPICKED UP BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAS LONG AS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER...GABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A WARM-CORE SYSTEM AND COULD EVEN \r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE CYCLONE REACHES \r\n40N LATITUDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SSTS WILL DECREASE SHARPLY BELOW \r\n22C AND THAT SHOULD AID THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM \r\nAND BRING ABOUT MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 36.5N  64.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 37.8N  62.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 39.9N  58.8W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 41.9N  56.1W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 45.3N  50.9W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 49.5N  42.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001\r\n \r\nRECENT GOES-8 IR AND NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING GABRIELLE MAY BE TAKING\r\nITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.  THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING\r\nTO BECOME DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT AND TAKE GABRIELLE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS APPEARS \r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE \r\nTROUGH AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS \r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 37.3N  61.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 38.8N  59.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 41.3N  55.4W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 44.0N  51.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 46.5N  47.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 49.5N  37.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n\r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW...BUT\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN 1-2 DAYS...AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...045/15...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  GABRIELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION \r\nOF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS \r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING THE SYSTEM...AND \r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN ALSO PREDICTS SOME INCREASE IN THE \r\nSTEERING CURRENT WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE \r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RUN SHOWS A TRACK \r\nSLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND THAN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\nHOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE 500 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ZONAL ENOUGH \r\nTO KEEP THE CYCLONE CENTER EAST OF THE ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 38.4N  61.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 40.0N  58.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 44.5N  51.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 47.0N  47.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 50.0N  37.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD \r\nPATTERN IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN EVOLVING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE \r\nSYSTEM.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON TROPICAL AND \r\nEXTRATROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 AND 55 KTS FROM \r\nTAFB AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE \r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS NON-EXISTENT ELSEWHERE. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/16. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  GABRIELLE REMAINS EMBEDDED \r\nIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LONG FETCH OF \r\nSTRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST.  \r\nTHESE WINDS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED \r\nBY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON \r\nKEEPING THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS \r\nDUE TO INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS.  IN FACT...GABRIELLE COULD \r\nEVEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS MAY BE INDICATED IN THE NEXT \r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\n34-KT AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON 12Z SHIP \r\nREPORTS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 39.5N  59.6W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 41.2N  57.1W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 43.4N  53.3W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 45.7N  49.4W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 47.9N  44.9W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 50.0N  35.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS MORE \r\nINDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nINCREASED TO 60 KTS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP WMLH \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 90 NM NW OF THE CENTER. THE SHIP REPORTED 984.5 MB \r\nPRESSURE...75F AIR TEMPERATURE...72F DEWPOINT. THIS DATA COUPLED \r\nWITH AMSU DATA STILL INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE REMAINS A WARM CORE \r\nSYSTEM...WHICH JUSTIFIES MAINTAINING IT AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/16. THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE IN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS STRONG \r\nWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM IN 12-24 \r\nHOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... \r\nWHICH REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE CENTER OF \r\nGABRIELLE OFF THE NEWFOUNDLAND COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION \r\nWITH THIS SYSTEM IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN   \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW. IN FACT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM \r\nTHE EARLIER ADVISORY...ACCOUNTING FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS TREND IN \r\nDEVELOPING A STRONGER SYSTEM. HOWEVER...GABRIELLE SHOULD QUICKLY \r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL ONCE THE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF 43N LATITUDE \r\nWHERE WATER TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW 20C.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 40.6N  58.4W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 42.4N  55.9W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 44.9N  52.1W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 47.3N  47.7W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 49.3N  42.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 51.0N  33.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001\r\n \r\nTHE PRESSURE AT BUOY 44141 IS 977.6 MB...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nIS 975 MB OR SO AND FALLING.  I ASSUME THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND\r\nREMAINS 60 KNOTS AS IN THE LAST ADVISORY.  975 MB WOULD SUPPORT A\r\nHURRICANE UNDER NORMAL CONDITIONS.  BUT SSTS OF 20 DEG C AND \r\nVERTICAL \r\nWIND SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KNOTS IS NOT NORMAL.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT SHOWED \r\nWINDS SPEEDS IN THE 60 KNOT RANGE.  THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE \r\nWIND SPEEDS COULD REMAIN NEAR 60 KNOTS FOR A DAY OR SO AND ANY \r\nWEAKENING WILL BE SLOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/18...MAYBE A LITTLE FASTER.  THE\r\nTRACK SCENARIO IS THE SAME AS EARLIER.  GABRIELLE IS CAUGHT UP IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HOURS.  \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MOST SKILLFUL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER...ALL CLOUD\r\nTOPS ARE WARMER THAN -50C BASED ON GOES8 IR IMAGERY.  THERE IS\r\nHOWEVER WHAT MIGHT BE SHALLOW CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  NEARBY SSTS WILL SOON FALL BELOW 20 DEGREES C.  PENN STATE\r\nPHASE ANALYSIS IS NEAR NEUTRAL BASED ON 18Z AVN MODEL.  THE LATEST\r\nAMSU EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS ARE 12 HOURS OLD.  GABRIELLE IS BECOMING \r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS STRONG STORM WILL BE\r\nCONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM THE MARINE PREDICTION\r\nCENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 42.3N  56.7W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 44.5N  54.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 47.3N  49.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 50.2N  44.6W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 53.0N  39.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 54.0N  32.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2001\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS \r\nINDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN \r\nSEA HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION IS BROAD AND APPEARS TO HAVE TWO CENTERS...ONE EAST OF \r\nCOSTA RICA AND ANOTHER ONE EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA.  SINCE \r\nTHE STRONGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nTHE NORTHERNMOST CENTER...I HAVE OPTED TO START ADVISORIES ON THAT \r\nCIRCULATION.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY CIRCULAR AND QUITE \r\nIMPRESSIVE...MORE INDICATIVE OF A MATURE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15.  ON THIS TRACK...THE \r\nDEPRESSION WILL BE INLAND OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA IN 6 TO 12 HOURS. \r\nMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD INTO THE \r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SPLIT THE SYSTEM INTO TWO SEPARATE CIRCULATION CENTERS. THE \r\nSOUTHERNMOST CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS COSTA RICA \r\nAND RE-DEVELOP INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE \r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHILE THE NORTHERNMOST \r\nCENTER TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWS DOWN NEAR THE SOUTHERN \r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE IN 72 HOURS.  I HAVE OPTED TO TAKE THE MORE NORTHERN \r\nTRACK BASED ON THAT CIRCULATION CURRENTLY BEING EMBEDDED IN THE \r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS DELAYED IN TAKING OFF AND WILL NOT BE \r\nIN THE DEPRESSION UNTIL 2230Z.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THE \r\nCYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM JUST BEFORE MAKING \r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN \r\nPOSTED ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS... \r\nGUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN BELIZE IN THE EVENT THAT STRONGER WINDS \r\nDEVELOP IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF \r\nTHE CENTER LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  IF THE DEPRESSION TRACKS A \r\nLITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST AND THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER\r\n...THEN MORE STRENGTHENING WOULD OCCUR THAN IS INDICATED BY THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  REGENERATION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN 72 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE HEAVY \r\nRAINFALL AND INLAND FRESH WATER FLOODING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 13.9N  82.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 14.3N  84.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.0N  87.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.9N  89.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.9N  91.8W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  94.0W    25 KTS...INLAND NEAR COAST\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2001\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS...PRIMARILY FROM NICARAGUA...AND SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA.\r\nTHE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND BECAUSE IT IS INTERACTING WITH\r\nMOUNTAINS...THE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS BEGUN. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN REMAINS EXCELLENT...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED.  THE\r\nWEAKENING DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS AND HAS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE\r\nVERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS IN THE PACIFIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 14.0N  84.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.0N  86.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.0N  90.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.0N  93.0W    20 KTS...LOW PRESSURE\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS \r\nMORNING...WITH LOW CLOUD VECTORS DEFINING THE CIRCULATION AND DEEP \r\nCONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST \r\nQUIKSCAT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...TO BE 305/6. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD \r\nLOW...AND SOUTH OF A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS \r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR \r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MAJOR \r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD \r\nTURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW \r\nAS RAPID A RECURVATURE AS INDICATED BY THE AVN OR UKMET...WHICH BOTH \r\nSEEM TO INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM A BIT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE \r\nEVOLUTION OF THE COLD LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  IF THE UPPER LOW \r\nCONTINUES ITS PRESENT MOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST...IT WOULD OPEN UP AN \r\nOUTFLOW CHANNEL FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IS IN FACT IMPROVING IN THE \r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER...THE AVN FORECASTS THIS LOW TO DRIFT \r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...A PATTERN WHICH WOULD \r\nBE LESS CONDUCIVE TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN 60 H.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 25.1N  64.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 25.5N  65.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 26.6N  66.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 28.0N  67.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 29.5N  69.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 32.5N  69.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2001\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE...WITH PLENTY OF BANDING...CONVECTION...AND OUTFLOW...AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nSYSTEM DID NOT FIND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CIRCULATION TO MAKE A\r\nFORMAL CENTER FIX.  HOWEVER...THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MISSION\r\nDO SHOW A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 45 MILES\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION ALOFT.  DESPITE WHAT APPEARS TO BE\r\nA VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS STILL PROVIDING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW...AND SOUTH OF A SIGNIFICANT\r\nBREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN\r\nA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MAJOR TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE 12Z AVIATION HAD A BETTER INITIALIZATION THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN\r\nAND...AS EXPECTED...WAS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE \r\nFASTER.\r\n\r\nIF THE DEPRESSION CAN EDGE AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW THERE WOULD BE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...IF THE AVN IS\r\nRIGHT...THE SHEAR WILL NOT LESSEN SOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 26.1N  65.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 27.0N  67.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 28.4N  68.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.7N  69.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  70.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 35.5N  70.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES.\r\nIT IS TEMPTING TO PLACE IT UNDER THE CONVECTION BUT EXTRAPOLATION\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS POSITION SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nSTILL TO THE WEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT.  THE DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTERS HAS BEEN A COMMON OCCURRENCE \r\nTHIS SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHIS DECOUPLING SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED.  IN\r\nFACT...A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN KAKF REPORTED 22 KNOT EAST-SOUTHEAST\r\nWINDS AND 1011.8 MB VERY NEAR THE CENTER AT 00Z.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE AND BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nIN AGREEMENT THAT THE PATTERN CORRESPONDS TO A 35-KNOT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  AS SOON AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW...IF\r\nIT DOES...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nLONG TERM MOTION IS 315/11.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER-LOW.  AS THE LOW WEAKENS...THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A STRONG APPROACHING TROUGH\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH STEERING THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LASTEST AVN AND GFDL RUNS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 27.0N  65.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 28.1N  67.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.5N  68.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 31.5N  69.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 33.5N  70.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 36.5N  70.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS A BIT OF AN ENIGMA THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOWS A NICE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS RESPONSIBLE FOR  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB.  HOWEVER...\r\nMULTISPECTRAL IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EXPOSED LOW CLOUD LINES WEST\r\nOF THE MAIN CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE EDGE\r\nOF THE CONVECTION.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE EARLIER SHIP AND AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA SHOWING THE SYSTEM WAS LESS INTENSE THAN THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.  FIRST LIGHT\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES IN A FEW HR MAY HELP SHOW WHETHER THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nACTUALLY STRENGTHENED OR NOT.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW CLOUD LINES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE WEST OF THE SATELLITE\r\nFIXES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/12.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER LOW AND MOVING TOWARD A\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL DEVELOP\r\nA LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY\r\nRECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nSOME SPREAD AS TO HOW FAR EAST THE CYCLONE MAY TURN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND BAMD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHE BAM MODELS...THE AVN...AND THE UKMET HAVE SHIFTED THEIR\r\nFORECASTS SOMEWHAT WESTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THE PARTLY EXPOSED CENTER SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS LESS FAVORABLE THAN IT APPEARS TO\r\nBE.  IN THE SHORT TERM...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST BY LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND\r\nPOSSIBLY SHEAR THE DEPRESSION.  THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THIS\r\nHAPPENING YET.  IN THE LONGER TERM...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY RUN\r\nINTO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT SHOULD LIMIT\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nINT THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 28.1N  66.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 29.3N  67.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 31.0N  68.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 32.8N  69.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 35.0N  69.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 37.5N  68.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n\r\nIT IS TEMPTING TO CALL THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM BASED ON ITS\r\nAPPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES\r\nTO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDS AND FAIR OUTFLOW.  IN\r\nFACT...TAFB...SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45\r\nKNOTS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM LOOKED GOOD ON SATELLITE YESTERDAY AND\r\nTHE PLANE COULD NOT FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  PERHAPS...THERE IS\r\nA SMALL CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION WITH STRONGER WINDS.  THE AIR\r\nFORCE PLANE WILL TELL US WHEN IT REACHES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS...TO COMPROMISE WITH \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES. SURROUNDING SURFACE DATA AND LOW CLOUD TRACERS \r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL POORLY DEFINED. THE \r\nSHEAR HAS RELAXED AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF \r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. A GRADUAL \r\nTURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE \r\nSHOULD BEGIN IN 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A STRONG TROUGH IS EXPECTED \r\nTO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE \r\nU.S. COAST.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK \r\nMODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE AVN AND THE GFDL \r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 28.2N  66.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 29.2N  67.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 31.0N  68.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  69.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 35.0N  69.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 40.0N  67.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES THIS MORNING WERE CORRECT.  A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE REACHED THE DEPRESSION AND FOUND 57 KNOTS AT FIGHT LEVEL WITH\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 5O KNOTS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nHUMBERTO.  THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD REPORTED A WELL DEFINED AND\r\nTIGHT SURFACE CENTER...A LITTLE BIT DISPLACED FROM THE FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nONE.  THIS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL POORLY\r\nORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM...HUMBERTO HAS A SMALL WINDOW\r\nOF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN 24\r\nHOURS OR SO.  SO ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS YESTERDAY IN\r\nINTENSIFYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A STRONG TROUGH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS INSIST ON THIS\r\nSOLUTION AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 29.0N  67.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.0N  68.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 31.0N  68.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 32.5N  69.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 34.5N  69.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 41.5N  67.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TURNING THE STORM NORTH AND THEN \r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE. THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER SOME 250 N MI OFFSHORE \r\nFROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL FORECAST AND CONSERVATIVELY TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nGFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS.  THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE \r\nLEFT OF THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS MORE NORTHWARD THAN MY ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nAN EXCELLENT CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW \r\nHOURS...WHICH MAY HAVE PEAKED BASED ON THE LAST IMAGE OR TWO.  SINCE \r\nTHERE IS AN AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO FIX THE SYSTEM AT 06Z...I WILL \r\nLEAVE THE WIND SPEED AT 50 KNOTS UNTIL THE NEW AIRCRAFT DATA IS \r\nRECEIVED.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE \r\nSTORM WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE FORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  \r\nTHE GFDL AND SHIPS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THE UKMET AND \r\nAVIATION MODEL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED.\r\n\r\nA DRIFTING BUOY IS ONLY ABOUT 40 OR SO N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER \r\nAND REPORTED 25 KNOTS AND 1011.9 MB AT 00Z...SO HUMBERTO IS A\r\nRATHER SMALL STORM. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 29.6N  67.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  68.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 32.1N  68.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 33.9N  69.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 36.0N  68.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 41.5N  64.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n994 MB WITH 65 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT BOTH EAST AND WEST OF A \r\nDEVELOPING 25 NM WIDE EYE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 HR MOTION IS 335/8...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nSOUTHWEST OF HUMBERTO...WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSTORM AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS PATTERN...ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS OF A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S...FAVORS A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST.  NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW SHARPLY TO THE EAST HUMBERTO WILL\r\nTURN.  THE AVN...NGPS...AND BAMS TAKE THE STORM NEAR NOVA SCOTIA\r\nIN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL...GFDN...AND LBAR TURN IT EASTWARD WELL\r\nAWAY FROM LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE EXTREMES AND MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO IS SHOWING INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC\r\nOUTFLOW...SO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM.  IN THE LONGER TERM...THE STORM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER\r\nSTRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD SLOW OR STOP\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN FOR 24 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nWHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS SMALL...THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES SOME\r\nEXPANSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HUMBERTO\r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SAFELY PAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 30.5N  67.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 31.6N  68.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 33.2N  68.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 35.0N  68.3W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 37.0N  67.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 42.0N  62.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB...WITH \r\nA PERSISTENT COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE AND BANDING NORTH THROUGH \r\nEAST.  AN 11Z SSMI PASS SHOWS A DOUGHNUT EYE FEATURE.  AN AIRCRAFT \r\nRECON IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z...SO I WILL INCREASE THE INITIAL WIND \r\nSPEED TO 60 KNOTS AND WAIT FOR THE AIRCRAFT TO CONFIRM THAT HUMBERTO \r\nHAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY.  IF RECON WAS NOT SCHEDULED SO \r\nSOON...I WOULD MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE NOW.  WITH STRONG UPPER \r\nLEVEL WESTERLIES NEARBY ...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO \r\nINCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO THE OPPORTUNITY FOR CONTINUED \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/9.  THE MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE \r\nMOSTLY NORTHWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHEAST AS HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY \r\nOF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE AVN...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GFDL \r\nSUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.  THE NOGAPS AND AVN ARE THE LEFTMOST GUIDANCE \r\nAND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THESE MODELS \r\n...BRINGING THE CENTER TO NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NEAR ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA...\r\n150 N MI.  INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF \r\nHUMBERTO UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS SAFELY PAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 31.4N  67.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 32.7N  68.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  68.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 36.9N  67.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 39.2N  66.3W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 45.0N  59.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECON RECENTLY FOUND A 984 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 86\r\nKT AT 700 MB TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A GPS DROP NEAR THE\r\nEYEWALL MEASURED ONLY 56 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT\r\nTHERE IS MORE VERTICAL MIXING NEARBY AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  A 90 PERCENT REDUCTION OF THE 700 MB WIND\r\nSPEED WOULD GIVE 75 KNOTS.  THE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WIND SPEED IN \r\nTHE DROP WAS 79 KT.  SOME OF MY COLLEAGUES PREFER 75 KNOTS FOR \r\nTHEINITIAL WIND SPEED BUT I AM MORE CONSERVATIVE.  A LITTLE MORE \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING \r\nUNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/09.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM EARLIER.  HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER.  THIS FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHEN THE AVIATION MODEL TURNS\r\nTHE MOTION MORE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NOGAPS IS\r\nLEFT AND FASTER AND BRINGS THE CENTER ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n THE GFDL IS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NEAR ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA.  \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HUMBERTO UNTIL \r\nIT MOVES AWAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 32.3N  67.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 33.4N  67.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 35.2N  67.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 37.6N  66.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 40.0N  65.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 44.0N  58.9W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM A MULTI-AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION...CAMEX...\r\nINDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STRENGTHENED FURTHER.  EYEWALL DROPSONDE\r\nDATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT SHOWED AN 87 KNOT WIND SPEED AT THE\r\nSURFACE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THERE WERE ALSO SURFACE WIND\r\nMEASUREMENTS OF ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE BY THE STEPPED FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT.\r\nLOWER LAYER AVERAGE WINDS FROM THE DROPSONDES YIELDED A SOMEWHAT\r\nLOWER WIND SPEED...BUT MAY BE BIASED BY THE VERTICAL TILT OF THE\r\nEYEWALL.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 85\r\nKNOTS.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...WOULD NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT\r\nSUCH STRENGTH.  HOWEVER HUMBERTO IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGHER-THAN-NORMAL\r\nSEA LEVEL PRESSURE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE\r\nGRADIENT.  THE HURRICANE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY.\r\nTHERE ARE STRONG HIGH-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM\r\nAND THESE WESTERLIES SHOULD SOON CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IN HUMBERTO'S PATH SEEMS SO\r\nUNFAVORABLE...THE FORECASTED WEAKENING IS AT A LITTLE GREATER RATE\r\nTHAN THAT SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH...010/9.  THE FLOW \r\nAHEAD OF A DEEPENING 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD \r\nCARRY HUMBERTO ON A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD \r\nENCOUNTER FASTER AND MORE ZONAL STEERING FLOW IN THE MID-LATITUDE \r\nWESTERLIES...SO HUMBERTO SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING EASTWARD BY THAT \r\nTIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE \r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 33.2N  67.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  66.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 36.5N  66.4W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 38.6N  65.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 40.5N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 43.0N  56.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nLATEST RECON REPORTS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO IS WEAKENING.  THE \r\nPRESSURE IS UP TO 989...AND THERE WERE NO FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ANY \r\nHIGHER THAN 68 KT.  A COUPLE OF EYEWALL DROPSONDES DID NOT SHOW ANY \r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nLOWERED TO 80 KT BUT MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nSUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR MORE RAPID \r\nWEAKENING THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/10.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV \r\nSHOW A SOLID BAND OF MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE \r\nCYCLONE...SO HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF NOVA \r\nSCOTIA.  HOWEVER...HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN SHARPLY ENOUGH TO KEEP IT \r\nOUT OF THE STRONG WESTERLIES...SO LITTLE ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED \r\nDURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.  WITH THE DROPSONDE \r\nDATA...THE LATEST AVN FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT 180 NM EAST OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS RUN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE AVN.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAD TO BE EXPANDED BASED ON \r\nTHE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 34.3N  66.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 36.0N  66.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 37.8N  64.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 39.5N  62.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 40.5N  60.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 41.5N  53.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH A WEAKENING TREND WAS ESTABLISHED LAST NIGHT...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN.  ALSO OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN THEY WERE\r\nLAST NIGHT.  SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED ONLY 5 KNOTS TO\r\n75 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SLOWER WEAKENING THAN THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL FOR 48 HOURS AND THEN AGREES WITH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nBRINGING THE WIND SPEED DOWN TO 50 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME\r\nTHE SSTS SHOULD BE IN THE 20-22 DEGREE C RANGE AND HUMBERTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nNOT QUITE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT\r\nTHE GFDL... UKMET AND AVN MODELS ALL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODEL AND IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 35.4N  66.3W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 36.8N  65.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 38.9N  63.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 40.6N  61.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 42.1N  58.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 43.0N  51.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 75 KNOTS...BUT THERE HAS\r\nBEEN SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CDO CLOUD TOPS AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS.  NOAA RECON IS SCHEDULED TO FLY\r\nTONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING TO 40 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS OVER\r\nSSTS NEAR OR BELOW 20 DEGREE C.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST IN 72 HOURS.  EXCEPT DURING \r\nTHE FIRST 12 HOURS...THE MOTION COULD BE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AS \r\nA LOW CUTS OFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE \r\nTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE LATEST AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nA SEPARATE SYSTEM...850 MB VORTICITY CENTER... THROUGH 72 HOURS...\r\nHUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER COLD SSTS IN 48\r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 36.5N  65.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 38.1N  64.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 40.0N  62.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 41.5N  59.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 42.9N  56.1W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 43.5N  47.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n\r\nDATA FROM ANOTHER MULTI-AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IN SUPPORT OF THE\r\nCONVECTION AND MOISTURE EXPERIMENT...CAMEX...INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO\r\nIS STILL A MINIMAL HURRICANE.  GPS DROPSONDES MEASURED SURFACE WIND\r\nSPEEDS OF 64 AND 62 KNOTS.  RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT...TRANSMITTED IN NEAR-REAL TIME TO THE NHC...INDICATE A\r\nPARTIAL EYEWALL...OPEN OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR HAS NOT INCREASED GREATLY OVER HUMBERTO THUS\r\nFAR...STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE IN ITS PATH.  ALSO...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS NEARING THE SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SST.\r\nTHEREFORE...WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON\r\nTUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS FOR\r\nHUMBERTO TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND SOON THEREAFTER\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE LOW.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040/12.  THE \r\nDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD STILL \r\nBE A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT OF THE FLOW IN \r\nHUMBERTO'S ENVIRONMENT INDICATE A SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL STEERING FLOW \r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THIS...AND THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL \r\nMOTION...SUPPORTS SHIFTING THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE TO THE RIGHT \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST \r\nAVN AND FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AS WELL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 37.2N  63.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 38.5N  62.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 40.3N  60.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 41.5N  57.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 42.0N  53.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 42.5N  43.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO MORE RECONNAISSANCE COVERAGE OF HUMBERTO...AND NOT \r\nMUCH SATELLITE COVERAGE EITHER BECAUSE OF THE ECLIPSE PERIOD...SO \r\nTHIS PACKAGE LARGELY ECHOES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FIRST IMAGES OUT \r\nOF ECLIPSE INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OR MOTION.  \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 TO 65 KT...SO WE WILL KEEP \r\nHUMBERTO A HURRICANE FOR NOW.  WATER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SHARPLY \r\nIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST JUST A LITTLE \r\nFASTER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE.  \r\nDATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SUGGESTS THAT HUMBERTO \r\nWILL REMAIN SOUTH OF ANY STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AND SO NOT \r\nMUCH ACCELERATION IS FORECAST UNITL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE...INITIALIZED WITH THE DROPSONDE DATA...APPEARS \r\nTO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 38.0N  63.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 39.1N  61.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 40.3N  59.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 41.5N  56.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 42.0N  51.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 42.0N  41.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS\r\nAN EYE LIKE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS BUT MAY BE HIGHER AND IF THE\r\nEYE PERSISTS...WINDS WILL BE ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT UPWARD.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 55 AND 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  HUMBERTO SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nAND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO IS NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT STEERING\r\nFLOW.  SO...A GENERAL NORTHEAST TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH\r\nFROM THE WEST.  THIS WILL INCREASE THE STEERING FLOW AND HUMBERTO\r\nSHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 38.9N  61.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 40.0N  60.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 41.0N  57.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 42.0N  53.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 42.5N  49.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 42.5N  39.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO BE WELL\r\nORGANIZED WITH AN INTERMITTENT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE BIT HIGHER.  HUMBERTO SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES\r\nOVER COOL WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS NORTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT STEERING\r\nFLOW.  SO...A GENERAL NORTHEAST TRACK...ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE STEERING \r\nFLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE CAUSING HUMBERTO TO ACCELERATE \r\nEASTWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 39.5N  61.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 40.5N  59.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 41.5N  57.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 41.5N  53.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 42.0N  48.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 42.5N  37.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTERMITTENT EYE OCCASIONALLY\r\nSURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nHUMBERTO IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY SHORTWAVE RIDGE...\r\nWHICH IS BOTH SHELTERING IT FROM SHEAR AND KEEPING THE MOTION SLOW.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FASTER WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY\r\nIMPINGE ON THE STORM IN THE NEXT 24-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A\r\nFASTER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD MOTION.  NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND\r\nTHE FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  SOME\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE TURNS HUMBERTO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 48-72\r\nHR...AND SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE THE TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE\r\nADJUSTED SOMEWHAT IN LATER PACKAGES.\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO IS OVER THE STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH\r\nOF THE GULF STREAM AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE INTO COLDER\r\nWATER.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 48\r\nHR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 39.9N  60.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 40.8N  58.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 41.5N  55.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 42.0N  52.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 42.5N  46.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 42.5N  35.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO HAS PRESENTED A PERSISTENT EYE OVERNIGHT SURROUNDED BY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP...77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n65 FROM SAB...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE WAS COINCIDENT WITH A JOG TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND WAS PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE\r\nDOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.\r\n \r\nAFTER THE JOG...THE MOTION HAS RETURNED TO 050/9.  WITH THE RETURN \r\nOF THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK...THE EFFECT OF THE PROTECTIVE RIDGE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO LESSEN.  STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY\r\nIMPINGE ON THE STORM IN THE NEXT 24-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A\r\nFASTER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE TEMPORARY TRACK \r\nDEFLECTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS OVER THE STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NORTH\r\nOF THE GULF STREAM AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO COLDER WATER.  THIS\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HR.  AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM ACCELERATES...IT IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 40.7N  59.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 41.7N  57.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 42.1N  54.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 42.5N  49.6W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 42.5N  44.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n\r\nSURPRISINGLY...HUMBERTO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING.\r\nTHE 15 N MI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THE\r\nSURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE AT T5.0...I.E. 90 KNOTS...AND THIS WIND SPEED IS\r\nUSED FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  IT IS UNUSUAL TO SEE A HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTHEN SO MUCH AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE.  HUBERTO HAS MANAGED TO \r\nSTAY OVER 25-26 DEG C SSTS...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SHARP SST \r\nGRADIENT.  MOREOVER...THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR AND \r\nNORTH OF THE HURRICANE...TO THE EAST OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE \r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES...HAS SHELTERED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE \r\nSTRONGER WESTERLIES.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS RIDGE \r\nWILL SOON FLATTEN.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE \r\nEASTWARD STEERING FLOW AND WESTERLY SHEAR OVER HUMBERTO.  THEREFORE \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION...AND \r\nWEAKENING.  IN 2-3 DAYS THE SYSTEM SHOULD GET ABSORBED INTO A LARGE \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT AN \r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED APPEARS IMMINENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER...SIMILAR TO THE LATEST AVN MODEL \r\nTRACK...AND SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY \r\nSUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 41.3N  58.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 42.2N  56.1W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 42.5N  50.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 42.5N  41.5W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 42.0N  33.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS PAST ITS PRIME.  LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE\r\nIS ON A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND.  THE EYE IS BECOMING\r\nINDISTINCT...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING\r\nASYMMETRICAL...WITH MOST OF THE COLD-TOPPED CLOUDS SHIFTING TO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE HURRICANE IS PROBABLY BEGINNING TO\r\nFEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AT A FAIRLY RAPID RATE\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOW MOVING INTO A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING...NOW ABOUT 13 KT.  THERE\r\nHAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  HUMBERTO\r\nSHOULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL...AVN...MODEL GUIDANCE.  HUMBERTO SHOULD BE MAKING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR SO AND BY 72 HOURS...BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 42.1N  56.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 42.5N  53.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 42.5N  46.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 42.0N  38.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  30.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n \r\nCANADIAN BUOY 44141 REPORTED A 990.0 MB PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAT 21Z...AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2310Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL\r\nOVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE.  SINCE THEN...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT ALBERTO HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN ORGANIZATION.\r\nWHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90\r\nKT...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON THE\r\nOBSERVED CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO HAS ACCELERATED EASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR AND IS\r\nNOW MOVING 080/20.  AN GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AND GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION ARE LIKELY DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE CYCLONE'S\r\nLIFE AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nBUOY 44141 REPORTED A 20C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...WHILE ANOTHER\r\nCANADIAN BUOY JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK REPORTED A 15C SST.\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF COLDER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD \r\nCAUSE ALBERTO TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HR.\r\nBY 48 HR THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS INDENTITY IN A LARGER LOW\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 42.3N  53.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 42.5N  48.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 42.5N  42.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 42.0N  35.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO IS DEGENERATING.  THE \r\nCONVECTION SHOWS LESS BANDING AND IS BECOMING AMORPHOUS AS THE \r\nCYCLONE ACCELERATES EASTWARD.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL \r\nABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE COOL SSTS...20 TO 23C...IT \r\nIS UNLIKELY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE MAKING IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT.  \r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS RIDING ALONG A STRONG SST GRADIENT...AND IN FACT WILL BE \r\nPASSING OVER WARMER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING DRAMATICALLY SO CONTINUED \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  AS IT \r\nACCELERATES...IT MAY LOSE ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION BEFORE BECOMING \r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK UPDATES THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 42.4N  50.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 42.2N  45.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 41.5N  37.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  30.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2001\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SHARP SST GRADIENT WITH \r\nINCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THE STORM STILL HAS ENOUGH \r\nCONVECTION FOR THE INTENSITY TO BE HELD AT 60 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  \r\nHOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN UNDER THE EFFECTS OF STRONG \r\nSHEAR AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 28 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST \r\nMAINTAINS AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHTLY \r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD \r\nDEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  HUMBERTO \r\nSHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS CIRCULATION SOON.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FOOT SEAS RADIUS HAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON A SHIP REPORT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 42.0N  45.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 41.5N  40.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 41.0N  33.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 41.0N  25.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2001\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY TODAY.  THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS BECOME ELONGATED...DISTORTED\r\n...AND REMOVED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\nHUMBERTO'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nVERY LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY\r\nOR SO.\r\n\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST NEAR 27 KNOTS.  THIS  GENERAL \r\nTRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES. \r\n\r\nSINCE HUMBERTO IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE \r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 41.4N  43.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 41.0N  37.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 40.0N  30.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2001\r\n\r\nADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ARE INITIATED BASED ON DATA\r\nFROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL\r\nWAVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE\r\nREGION.  THE CREW REPORTED A POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nWITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1010 MB.  HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A CLOUD PATERN MUCH BETTER\r\nDEFINED THAN YESTERDAY AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW.  AS USUAL...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THE UPPER LOW AHEAD OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD PROVIDING AN\r\nENVIRONMENT WHICH IS TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL MAKES THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE BUT THE AVN GLOBAL\r\nMODEL...WHICH HAS DEMOSNTRATED SKILLS IN INTENSITY TRENDS...WEAKEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING\r\nIS NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  BASED\r\nON THE CURRENT INFORMATION AND THE MIXED SIGNALS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLOW STRENGHTENING.  ALTERNATIVELY...THE\r\nDEPRESSION MIGHT BECOME A TROPICAL WAVE AGAIN IF IT CONTINUES MOVING\r\nFAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A WELL DEFINED ESTABLISHED RIDGE \r\nOF HIGH PRESSURE. IT APPEARS THAT IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE  \r\nSURVIVES....IT WILL MOVE WEST OR WESTNORTHWEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN \r\nTHROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 13.1N  60.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.0N  63.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N  66.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N  68.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N  71.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N  75.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 04 2001\r\n \r\nAFTER FINDING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER LATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...SUBSEQUENT ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE OFF A CENTER BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL.  NEITHER HAVE THERE BEEN ANY RECENT\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A DEFINITE\r\nCLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  FURTHERMORE...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2216Z\r\nSHOWED AN OPEN WAVE.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nDECENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND ABUNDANT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OR WAVE AXIS...WE WILL GIVE THE\r\nDEPRESSION THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT UNTIL AT LEAST FIRST LIGHT\r\nTOMORROW.  \r\n\r\nSURFACE AND RECON OBS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS \r\nUNCHANGED...290/16.  THE KEY SYNOPTIC PLAYER IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS LOW IS MOVING TO THE WEST BUT NOT AS \r\nFAST AS THE DEPRESSION...AND RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE \r\nCIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER LOW IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE \r\nOUTFLOW FROM THE DEPRESSION.  ASSUMING THAT THERE IS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE TOMORROW...IT WILL PROBABLY BE DEFLECTED A LITTLE TO THE \r\nRIGHT OF ITS PRESENT HEADING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.   THIS IS \r\nREFLECTED IN THE NOGAPS AND PARTICULARLY IN THE AVN SOLUTION...AND \r\nTO SOME EXTENT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A SHADE NORTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT.  ONE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN TO AN OPEN WAVE...IF IT HAS NOT DONE SO\r\nALREADY.  THIS IS THE UNANIMOUS VIEW OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE ON AVERAGE...BRINGS THE\r\nSYSTEM TO 78 KT IN 72 HOURS...IMPLICITLY MINIMIZING THE IMPACT OF\r\nTHE UPPER LOW.  THE GFDL IS IN BETWEEN...AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH WHILE THE DEPRESSION INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS LAST SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 13.7N  62.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.6N  64.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 15.8N  67.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.9N  69.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N  72.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N  76.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS MARKED INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ELEVEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...WHETHER\r\nTHE SYSTEM ACTUALLY HAS A LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL IN DOUBT DUE\r\nTO OBSCURING OF THE LOW CLOUDS THAT MIGHT DEFINE IT.  THE CENTER\r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD MASS\r\nNEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION UNTIL EITHER FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY OR A RECON\r\nFLIGHT LATER TODAY INDICATE OTHERWISE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/15.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY A STRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nAROUND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL BASICALLY BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK.  THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE BASED\r\nON THE IDEA THAT IF THE CYCLONE ORGANIZES IT SHOULD GET STEERED A\r\nLITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE\r\nCYCLONE BETWEEN THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND A RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH...AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STRETCHING OF THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN SUGGESTS THAT IS UNDERWAY.  WHAT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON IS\r\nHOW STRONG THAT FLOW WILL BE.  THE AVN AND THE NOGAPS SHOW A RATHER \r\nUNFAVORABLE 30-50 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT 36 HR...WHILE\r\nTHE UKMET SHOWS 25-40 KT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE\r\nFAVORABLE WINDS NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK.  DEPENDING ON WHERE THE\r\nCENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE STRONGEST FLOW...THE POSSIBILITIES\r\nRANGE FROM THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST OF HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR\r\nTO DISSIPATION.  THE GDFL IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AS IS THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES\r\nBEYOND 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 14.0N  63.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.9N  65.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N  68.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N  70.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N  73.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N  77.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE MAY NOT BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED \r\nPREVIOUSLY...BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE \r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND \r\nGOOD OUTFLOW. IN FACT...IT LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER... \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME \r\nUNTIL AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE AREA THIS \r\nAFTERNOON. THE RECON WILL DETERMINE THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM \r\nAND IT MAY FIND A TROPICAL WAVE...A DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE \r\nEFFECTS OF LAND AND THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF \r\nTHE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME \r\nSTRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS.  A \r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nAND WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST \r\nOF THE MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE \r\nLONGER RANGE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 14.5N  64.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.3N  67.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.3N  70.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N  72.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N  75.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N  79.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iris","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001\r\n \r\nFINALLY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION REACHED THE SURFACE.  A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A CENTER OF 1004 MB WITH FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 64 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE LOW AND...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND THE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  IRIS IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nIRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. THE \r\nSTEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A \r\nTRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA \r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM EARLIER \r\nRUNS AND BRING IRIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THE LONGER RANGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 15.8N  66.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.6N  69.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.2N  72.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.0N  75.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N  78.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N  82.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iris","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 05 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON FIX JUST BEFORE 00Z INDICATED THAT THE EARLIER \r\nINTENSIFICATION HAD LEVELED OFF...WITH A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB AND \r\nPEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...AT 1500 FT...OF ABOUT 63 KT.  SINCE THAT \r\nTIME THERE HAS BEEN ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BURST JUST NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION IMPROVED A BIT AS WELL.  ON THIS \r\nBASIS...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KT...AND I SUSPECT THAT THE \r\nNEXT RECON AT 06Z WILL FIND THAT IRIS IS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH.  \r\n\r\nIRIS IS EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF A \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE AND NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE INITIAL MOTION \r\nIS 275/16.  OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER \r\nTHE MIDWEST STATES WILL MOVE EASTWARD...BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN \r\nAGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL NOT DIG SOUTH AND HAVE AN \r\nAPPRECIABLE EFFECT ON THE TRACK OF IRIS.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN \r\nTHE RIDGE A LITTLE THOUGH...ENOUGH TO BRING IRIS BACK TO A MORE \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION LATER TOMORROW AND INTO SUNDAY.  AFTER THE \r\nTROUGH MOVES BY...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED \r\nTO KEEP IRIS ON A WEST TO WESTNORTHWEST TRACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN \r\nCARIBBEAN.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIRIS IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THERE ARE \r\nSTRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO ITS SOUTH...AND IF IRIS CAN AVOID \r\nTHESE THEN IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS \r\nIRIS TO 95 KT IN 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS \r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT KEEPS IRIS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WHERE THE \r\nSHEAR IS HIGHER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE SHIPS \r\nGUIDANCE.  ONE CAUTION HOWEVER...THE RECON DATA INDICATED THAT THE \r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION IS STILL VERY SMALL AND FRAGILE...SO THAT IF IRIS \r\nENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE \r\nVERY QUICKLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 15.8N  68.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.2N  71.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.2N  74.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.1N  76.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N  79.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N  84.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iris","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES\r\nTHAT IRIS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NIGHT.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED A DROPSONDE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002 MB ON THE\r\nFIRST FIX AND AN EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB ON THE\r\nSECOND.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 59 KT.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE INNER EYEWALL SEEN EARLIER IS\r\nCOMING AND GOING...WHICH MAY PARTIALLY EXPLAIN WHY THE STORM IS\r\nONLY SLOWLY STRENGTHENING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n \r\nIRIS IS MOVING BETWEEN 280/285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS\r\nRIDGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 48 HR...THEN STRENGTHEN SOME AS\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS REPLACE BY DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGING.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN\r\nBY BEING TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH\r\n48 HR AND A TURN TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS HAVING TROUBLE WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE CENTER.  IRIS REMAINS IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH\r\nOF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  THIS PATTERN LOOKS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE OF EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR INTERFERING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TIGHT INNER CORE.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME EVEN MORE\r\nFAVORABLE...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nSOME OF THE DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD MAY COME IN\r\nBURSTS UNTIL THE CENTRAL CORE BECOMES WELL DEFINED.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED SOMEWHAT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 16.3N  69.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.8N  72.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N  75.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.6N  77.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N  80.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N  85.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iris","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN \r\nASSOCIATED WITH IRIS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER REPORTED 998 MB  \r\nAND NO CHANGE IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 \r\nKNOTS.  HOWEVER THE PLANE REPORTED A CLOSED WALL OF 20 N MI WITH A \r\nSTADIUM EFFECT.  THE CIRCULATION OF IRIS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH \r\nTHE MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS...LIMITING THE STRENGTHENING.  THEREAFTER...CONDITIONS BECOME \r\nMORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. \r\n  \r\nIRIS IS MOVING 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AND THE STEERING PATTERN \r\nCONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHEREFORE...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK ACROSS THE \r\nCARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...SO \r\nIRIS COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY \r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL \r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 16.7N  71.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N  73.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.5N  76.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N  79.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.5N  82.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N  86.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING IRIS AND FOUND A \r\nCLOSED EYEWALL...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB AND PEAK WINDS OF 82 \r\nKNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. BASED ON THESE REPORTS...IRIS IS BEING \r\nUPGRADED TO A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES WELL \r\nESTABLISHED AND THE ONLY IMPEDIMENT FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE \r\nTHE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN.  ONCE IRIS \r\nMOVES BY JAMAICA AND ENTERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...IT COULD \r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED.\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE RECON PLANE INDICATE THAT IRIS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT \r\n15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING ON A TRACK \r\nBETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN... \r\nFORCING IRIS ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA \r\nAS INDICATED BY ALL AVAILABLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 17.0N  73.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.6N  75.1W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N  78.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  81.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N  83.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N  87.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE GPS DROPSONDE INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE WIND\r\nSPEED INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS OR SO AT ABOUT 21Z OVER A SMALL AREA\r\nJUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A CLOSED 12 MILE DIAMETER\r\nEYE..AND 990 MB.  MICORWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SMALL\r\nEYE FEATURE AT THE SAME TIME.  SINCE THEN THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 993\r\nMB AND RECON REPORTS THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS EVEN THOUGH IT\r\nMAY HAVE ONLY BEEN THAT HIGH FOR A FEW HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nTHE GFDL BRING THE WIND SPEED TO 100 KNOTS OR HIGHER IN A DAY OR\r\nTWO...IF THE CENTER STAYS OVER THE WATER.  SINCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND\r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGERY IMPLIES A NOT VERY PERSISTENT PATTERN OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 90 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/16...BASED ON\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION.  THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS 270/16.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS ONCE AGAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND THEN WEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS\r\nFORECAST TO STRENGTHEN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN\r\nUPDATE OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IF THE SHORTER TERM 270 DEGREE\r\nMOTION PERSISTS FOR 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE CENTER COULD PASS SOUTH OF\r\nJAMAICA.  OTHERWISE THE FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OVER JAMAICAN IN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 17.2N  74.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N  76.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 18.8N  79.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 19.1N  82.1W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N  84.6W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 19.0N  89.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n\r\nAFTER MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD...EVEN WOBBLING A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nWEST...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION \r\nOF ABOUT 285/15.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nIRIS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO \r\nSTRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF \r\nDAYS.  BECAUSE OF THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST \r\n6-12 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED JUST \r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE \r\nMIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUITE WHICH IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY \r\nCLUSTERED.  THE AVN MODEL IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST...HOWEVER THAT MODEL HAS EXHIBITED A SLIGHT NORTHWARD BIAS \r\nFOR IRIS THUS FAR.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN RATHER \r\nRAGGED-LOOKING...LATEST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST \r\nTHAT IRIS IS MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH.  THE EYE WALL IS STILL CLOSED \r\nAND...EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ON THIS \r\nMISSION WERE 76 KNOTS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE READING WAS DOWN TO 987 \r\nMILLIBARS.  RECENTLY...A GPS DROPSONDE SHOWED A SPOT SURFACE WIND \r\nSPEED OF 70 KNOTS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IT IS PRESUMED THAT \r\nSLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE HAS BEEN \r\nROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IRIS...AND PERHAPS \r\nINTERFERING WITH THE OUTFLOW.  THAT LOW IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF THE \r\nHURRICANE...AND APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ITS SEPARATION FROM IRIS.  \r\nWE ANTICIPATE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION AS THE HURRICANE ENTERS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS IRIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS... \r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 17.1N  76.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 17.7N  78.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 18.3N  80.7W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 18.5N  83.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 18.5N  86.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N  90.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n \r\nLATEST RECON REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB FROM A DROPSONDE\r\nAND AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 985 MB.  IT APPEARS THAT THE DROP\r\nDID NOT HIT THE CENTER BECAUSE SURFACE WINDS WERE MEASURED AT 28\r\nKNOTS. SO WE ARE USING 989 MB IN THE ADVISORY...BASED ON PREVIOUS\r\nMEASUREMENTS. FOR A WHILE THE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED...BUT DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES ARE\r\nSHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE FEATURE. THIS MEANS THAT IRIS\r\nCOULD BE STRENGTHENING AS WE SPEAK.  ONCE THE CIRCULATION OF IRIS\r\nGETS AWAY FROM JAMAICA...IT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN WHERE THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH. THIS...\r\nIN COMBINATION WITH LOW SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT.  HISTORICALLY... A LARGE NUMBER OF HURRICANES HAVE\r\nBECOME MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS REGION.\r\n \r\nIRIS CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A STRONG AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...KEEPING\r\nTHE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nIRIS COULD REACH EASTERN YUCATAN OR NORTHERN BELIZE AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 17.4N  77.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.8N  80.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N  83.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N  86.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N  89.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.0N  92.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n \r\nIRIS IS A TINY HURRICANE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIMITED TO A VERY\r\nSMALL AREA SURROUNDING A 12 N MI EYE.  THE ONLY REPORT RECEIVED SO\r\nFAR FROM THE NOAA PLANE IS NORTHWEST OF WIND OF 75 KNOTS AT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL...  SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB\r\nAND THEN 991 MB.  FOR A WESTWARD MOVING HURRICANE...WINDS MUST THEN\r\nBE STRONGER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 75 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. DURING THE NEXT \r\n24 TO 36 HOUR...IRIS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN \r\nWHERE THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS VERY HIGH.  THIS...IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH LOW SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  HISTORICALLY...A LARGE NUMBER OF HURRICANES\r\nHAVE BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES IN THIS REGION.\r\n\r\nIRIS IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nTHEREFORE A WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST.  IRIS COULD EVEN MOVE SOUTH\r\nOF DUE WEST AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nIRIS COULD REACH EASTERN YUCATAN OR NORTHERN BELIZE AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOUR OR LESS. IT SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nINLAND OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IRIS MAY \r\nMOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...A TROPICAL STORM \r\nWARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF \r\nHONDURAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 17.3N  79.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.5N  82.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N  88.5W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N  91.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  96.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17.  WITH A STRONG RIDGE HOLDING TO THE\r\nNORTH...THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED BETWEEN WEST AND\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE GFDL AND AVIATION MODELS ARE THE LEFT-MOST\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nA NOAA AIRCRAFT WAS IN THE HURRICANE TONIGHT.  THE HIGHEST\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED WAS 82 KNOTS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nLATEST CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 990 MB.  A CLOSED CIRCULAR\r\nEYEWALL HAD A 13 MILE DIAMETER.  A GPS DROPSONDE INDICATED RATHER \r\nSTRONG WINDS IN THE NORTH EYEWALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS \r\nINCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.  THE DROPSONDE DATA SUPPORTS A SURFACE WIND \r\nOF 90+ KNOTS...BUT THE PRESSURE IS A LITTLE HIGH TO INCREASE THE \r\nWIND THAT MUCH.  THE FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 90 KNOTS \r\nBEFORE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA OR MEXICO.  THIS IS ABOUT WHAT \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL ARE SHOWING WITH AN ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND PLENTY OF OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  THE LATEST \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY LOOKS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL COLD CDO AND A \r\nCOLD CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nBELIZE IS POSTING A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THEIR COAST SINCE THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS RIGHT OVER THEM.  MEXICO AND HONDURAS ARE WAITING\r\nA LITTLE LONGER.  A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD WEST-SOUTHWEST...AS FORECAST\r\nBY THE AVIATION MODEL...AND HONDURAS OR EVEN GUATEMALA COULD BECOME \r\nTHE MOST THREATENED AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 17.3N  81.3W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 17.4N  83.7W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.4N  86.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 17.3N  89.8W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 17.2N  93.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N  97.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-10-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001\r\n\r\nIRIS IS BECOMING A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.  LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nRAPIDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INNER CORE IS VERY TIGHT\r\nAND RECON REPORTED CONCENTRIC EYE WALLS...WITH AN INNER EYE DIAMETER\r\nOF AROUND 8 N MI...OR LESS.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN\r\nPRECIPITOUSLY...AT A RATE OF MORE THAN 3 MB/HR SINCE 00Z...WITH THE\r\nLATEST DROPSONDE MEASURING 963 MB.  IRIS IS APPROACHING MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS...INDEED IT MAY BE ONE ALREADY.  HOWEVER IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS UNDERWAY...SO THERE\r\nMAY BE SOME UPWARD/DOWNWARD FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY TODAY.\r\nNOTWITHSTANDING...THE CYCLONE IS OVER A REGION OF HIGH UPPER-OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED.\r\nTHEREFORE A NET INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT WE HAVE\r\nLITTLE GUIDANCE FOR SUCH RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING HURRICANES.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS WEST...OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/17.  THERE\r\nIS A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF IRIS...AND\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEST TO \r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSINCE THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE SOUTHWARD EXCURSION OF THE \r\nHURRICANE THAN SHOWN HERE...A HURRICANE WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE \r\nCOAST OF HONDURAS...AND A HURRICANE WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE \r\nCARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 17.1N  83.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 17.0N  85.5W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.8N  88.5W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.6N  91.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N  94.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001\r\n \r\nRECON REPORTS JUST BEFORE 12Z INDICATED THAT IRIS STRENGTHENED TO A \r\nCATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...WITH A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT ONLY 4 \r\nNM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  WITH SUCH A TIGHT CORE...IT WAS \r\nIMPOSSIBLE TO GET A DROPSONDE IN THE CENTER OF THE EYE...SO THE \r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED.  THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND CORRESPONDS TO \r\n120 KT AT THE SURFACE USING THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION.  THE \r\nAIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED TRIPLE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH RADII OF \r\n3/9/18 NM.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 12Z SUGGESTS THAT THE INNERMOST \r\nEYEWALL HAS PROBABLY COLLAPSED...AND THE WINDS MAY HAVE COME DOWN A \r\nBIT.  WITH TWO MORE EYEWALLS SO CLOSE...I DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAPID \r\nDECREASE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/17...THE SAME AS BEFORE.  MOST OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF WEST.  THE AVN IS FURTHEST \r\nSOUTH...TAKING THE CENTER INLAND OVER GUATEMALA.  RECENT AVN \r\nFORECASTS SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK HAVE BEEN DOING QUITE \r\nWELL...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS IRIS RE-EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC...WHERE \r\nIT WOULD RETAIN THE NAME IRIS IF IT SURVIVES THE TERRAIN OF CENTRAL \r\nAMERICA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SO SMALL...IT MAY \r\nWELL NOT MAKE IT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 17.0N  84.9W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N  87.6W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.9N  90.9W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N  94.0W    20 KTS...OVER PACIFIC WATERS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 15.5N  96.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 100.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2001\r\n \r\nRECONAISSANCE REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINNERMOST OF THE THREE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS COLLAPSED LATE THIS\r\nMORNING.  INITIAL RECON THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THAT IRIS HAD WEAKENED\r\nA BIT WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THIS EYEWALL...BUT IT IS ALREADY STARTING\r\nTO MAKE A RECOVERY.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON WITH\r\nINTENSE HURRICANES AS THEIR CORE STRUCTURE EVOLVES.  LATEST RECON\r\nREPORTED A 10 NM EYE...UP FROM 3 NM THIS MORNING.  CENTRAL PRESSURES\r\nARE HARD TO NAIL DOWN EXACTLY BECAUSE OF THE VERY SMALL EYE AND\r\nSTRONG PRESSURE GRADIENTS...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE PRESSURE IS BACK\r\nDOWN TO ABOUT 954 MB AFTER RISING TO 959 EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON.\r\nTHE PEAK WIND REPORTED RECENTLY FROM FLIGHT-LEVEL WAS 112 KT...BUT A\r\nGPS DROPSONDE AT 19Z WAS REPORTING 132 KT WHEN IT FAILED AT 46\r\nMETERS ABOVE THE SEA SURFACE.  SURFACE-EQUIVALENT ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTHIS DROP RANGE FROM 105 TO 120 KT.  WHILE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nPROBABLY A LITTLE LESS THAN 120 KT RIGHT NOW...I WILL KEEP THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY AT 120 KT BECAUSE IRIS APPEARS TO BE\r\nSTRENGTHENING AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 6 TO 9 HOURS IS 265/19.  PRETTY\r\nMUCH ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE CENTER SHOULD BE MAKING LANDFALL\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT THE FEELING NOW IS THAT THE SMALL\r\nCIRCULATION OF IRIS WILL NOT SURVIVE THE PASSAGE ACROSS THE RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 16.8N  86.9W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 16.1N  89.7W    90 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.7N  92.9W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iris","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2001\r\n \r\nTHE BELIZE RADAR AS WELL AS INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT \r\nIRIS MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE TOWN OF MONKEY RIVER BELIZE AT \r\nAPPROXIMATELY 10 PM EDT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE \r\nESTIMATED TO BE 130 KTS BASED UPON DVORAK OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.  THIS \r\nWAS SUBSTANTIATED SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER BY A RECON WHICH MEASURED A \r\n127 KT SURFACE WIND VIA A DROPSONDE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF IRIS HAS REMAINED ALMOST CONSTANT AT 260/19\r\nBASED UPON BOTH THE RECON AND BELIZE RADAR CENTER FIXES.  THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE MOVES IRIS RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ON A\r\nWESTERLY TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING RAPIDLY\r\nAS IT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND IT\r\nIS LIKELY THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF IRIS WILL NOT SURVIVE THE\r\nPASSAGE INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/RHOME\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 16.4N  88.7W   120 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  92.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 15.9N  95.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iris","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-10-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES MOVING OVER LAND AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IRIS \r\nHAS WEAKENED TO MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH BY NOW.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT \r\nTHE SMALL INNER CORE WILL BE LARGELY DESTROYED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN \r\nOF GUATEMALA AND EASTERN MEXICO...WHERE ELEVATIONS RANGE FROM ABOUT \r\n5000 TO 10000 FEET.  THEREFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS \r\nDISSIPATING IN 12 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO TO THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE ABLE TO \r\nSURVIVE...AND REGENERATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN \r\nPACIFIC.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST... \r\n260/18...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  \r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL \r\nTOTALS HAVE BEEN DECREASED.  HOWEVER THERE IS STILL SOME THREAT OF \r\nINLAND FLOODING IN ASSOCIATION WITH IRIS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 16.0N  90.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.8N  93.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iris","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-10-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 09 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF IRIS IS NOW MOVING 265/19 OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nEASTERN MEXICO.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...\r\nALTHOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1004 MB BASED ON A\r\n1004.9 MB OBSERVATION AT COMITAN MEXICO.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nDECREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IRIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HR.  THE BIG\r\nQUESTION IS WHETHER THE CENTER WILL EMERGE INTO THE PACIFIC AND\r\nREFORM.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER AT BEST RIGHT ALONG\r\nTHE COAST THROUGH 24 HR...BY WHICH TIME IT IS LIKELY THERE WILL\r\nNOT BE ENOUGH OF THE CENTER LEFT TO REDEVELOP.  THUS...DISSIPATION\r\nIS FORECAST AFTER 36 HR.  HOWEVER...A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nCURRENT TRACK COULD GIVE IRIS THE SEA ROOM IT NEEDS TO REFORM.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON IRIS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS OVER THE PACIFIC.\r\nIF SUCH REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS...THE SYSTEM WILL RETAIN THE NAME\r\nIRIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 16.1N  92.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 15.9N  95.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 15.9N  98.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 16.3N 101.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME \r\nBETTER ORGANIZED WITH ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN IS \r\nAHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION. SO A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND \r\nTHE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR TWO. A \r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL REACH THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY.   \r\n \r\nTHERE IS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS \r\nINDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF \r\nTHIS SYSTEM. WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED SOON. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 11.2N  51.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 12.0N  53.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 12.5N  55.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 13.5N  58.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 14.0N  60.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N  63.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  IT HAS AN AREA OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nCENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  IT LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AS INDICATED BY THE TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nBEING KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION WAITING FOR THE CONVECTION TO\r\nPERSIST LONGER.  THE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND THE OCEAN\r\nIS WARM...SO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED...THERE IS A\r\nBETTER HISTORY OF INITIAL MOTION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE 270/13.\r\nTHERE IS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESURE WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS A\r\nCONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  IN\r\nFACT...LATEST GFDL BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA SIMILAR TO IRIS.  IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE BUSY FOR A FEW MORE\r\nDAYS.  \r\n\r\nBARBADOS HAS ALREADY ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.  ALL INTERESTS\r\nIN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 11.0N  52.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 11.3N  54.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 11.8N  56.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 12.5N  59.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N  61.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 14.0N  64.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 06 2001\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EAST OF THE \r\nWINDWARD ISLANDS HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM JERRY. \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE LARGE CLOUD SHIELD HAS MADE IS \r\nDIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS \r\nLOCATED. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND SOME LOOSE BANDING FEATURES INDICATED \r\nIN 06/2257Z AMSU-B DATA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO \r\n35 KT BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...T2.5... \r\nFROM TAFB.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS \r\nAND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE CIRCULAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14.  THERE COULD BE SOME ERRATIC\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS THE CENTER RE-ORGANIZES\r\nWITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nDEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JERRY AND TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\n06/18Z AVN MODEL WEAKENS JERRY AND TAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24\r\nHOURS TOWARD THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN\r\nDISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRONG POLEWARD BIAS OF THE AVN MODEL WITH THIS\r\nSYSTEM SINCE IT FIRST LEFT THE COAST OF AFRICA SEVERAL DAYS AGO.\r\nOTHER THAN THE AVN MODEL...THE NORTHERNMOST OF ALL THE NHC MODELS IS\r\nTHE DEEP AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...WHICH TAKE THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTH\r\nOF PUERTO RICO IN 72 HOURS.  THE SOUTHERNMOST MODEL IS THE GFDN AND\r\nIT TAKES THE CYCLONE DUE WEST TO NEAR ARUBA IN 60 TO 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE GUNS MODEL \r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS IMPRESSIVE AT FIRST GLANCE... \r\nJERRY MAY JUST BE EXPERIENCING A BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURST.  THE CLOUD \r\nSHIELD IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE OF A CENTRAL COLD \r\nCOVER...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE \r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT...THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT CLOUD \r\nPATTERN IS NOT A CENTRAL COLD COVER...THEN A PERIOD OF RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD ALREADY BE UNDERWAY. THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL \r\nTROUGH DIGGING TO THE EAST OF JERRY WOULD ALSO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTEHNING BY ENHANCING THE CURRENT OUTFLOW PATTERN EVEN MORE.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFEFCT FOR BARBADOS AND ADDITIONAL \r\nWATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE \r\nWINDWARD ISLANDS ON SUNDAY.  ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS \r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 11.1N  54.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 11.5N  56.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 12.2N  58.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 12.8N  60.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 13.5N  62.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 14.8N  66.8W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER THE ECLIPSE PERIOD ENDED SUGGESTS THAT JERRY \r\nHAS COMPLETED THE CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASE. THERE STILL REMAINS \r\nSOME UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER...WHICH I FEEL IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. \r\nTHIS IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF CLOUD SYSTEM AND MAINTAINS CONTINUITY \r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS TO THE \r\nNORTH OF JERRY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM TAFB... \r\nAND 35 KT...T2.5...FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/16.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE FORWARD \r\nMOTION WAS INCREASED THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT.  THERE IS NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG \r\nTHE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE AVN.  THE AVN MODEL \r\nIS FARTHER TO THE LEFT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT STILL TAKES \r\nJERRY NORTHWEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AND WEAKENS THE SYSTEM \r\nBEFORE IT MOVES THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE AVN STILL APPEARS TO HAVE A STRONG POLEWARD BIAS...SO THIS \r\nSOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED AGAIN.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS \r\nARE WITHIN 60 NM OF EACH OTHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THOSE \r\nTHREE MODELS MAINTAIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF \r\nTHE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  FOR THIS REASON...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST \r\nAN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. IT IS NOT UNCOMMON FOR \r\nSOME SLIGHT WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST ENDS.  \r\nHOWEVER...A TIGHT INNER-CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN...WHICH COULD ACT \r\nTO FIRE UP MORE DEEP CONVECTION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED \r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH \r\nIS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODEL.  THE GFDL \r\nMODEL ACTUALLY BRINGS JERRY UP TO 90 TO 100 KT IN 72 HOURS AS THE \r\nCYCLONE IS APPROACHING JAMAICA AND HAITI.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL HAS \r\nHAD A HIGH INTENSITY BIAS SO FAR THIS YEAR...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS \r\nPLACED ON THAT INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 11.5N  56.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 11.9N  58.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 12.8N  61.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 13.8N  63.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 14.6N  66.4W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N  71.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY\r\nCONCERNING THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  TAFB AND SAB\r\nWERE ABOUT A DEGREE APART IN THEIR FIXES.  A QUIK-SCAT PASS ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SHOWED NORTHERLY FLOW BUT ELONGATED FROM\r\nNORTH TO SOUTH...SUGGESTING A BROADER LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nTHE CURRENT CENTER LOCATION ALSO RELIES ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS POSITION.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17.  REASONABLE AGREEMENT REMAINS\r\nAMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE AVN.  THE AVN MODEL STILL\r\nWANTS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM\r\nOUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN\r\nTHE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT A TAD \r\nTO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT BASED UPON DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM TAFB... AND 35\r\nKT...T2.5...FROM SAB.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING A\r\nSIMILAR SLOW STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 11.7N  58.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 12.2N  60.8W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 13.2N  64.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 14.0N  67.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 14.7N  69.6W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N  73.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n \r\nAHHHHH!!!  LIFE IS GOOD WHEN THE RECON ARRIVES.  THANK YOU AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE!!  THE RECON FIXED THE CENTER AND FOUND A 55 KT FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWIND ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE AND VERY CLOSE IN.  THIS TRANSLATES TO A\r\nSURFACE WIND SPEED OF 45 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO THIS VALUE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS INCREMENTED BY 5 KNOTS OUT TO 48\r\nHOURS...AFTER THAT IT IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE WAS USED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY FOR THE FORECAST.  WIND \r\nRADII WERE ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE USING THE RECON VALUES \r\nADJUSTED TO THE SURFACE AND ACTUAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...USING THE \r\nHURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION SURFACE WIND ANALYSIS PROGRAM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/18.  AS BEFORE....REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT REMAINS AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE AVN.  THE\r\nAVN MODEL STILL WANTS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nRECURVE THE SYSTEM OUT INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WHILE THE OTHER\r\nGLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH TO BE MORE IN LINE \r\nWITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET.  IF THE FORECAST HOLDS TRUE...JAMAICA \r\nWILL BE FACING ANOTHER HURRICANE AGAIN IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 12.5N  60.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 13.2N  62.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 14.0N  65.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 14.8N  68.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 15.8N  71.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECON DATA AND NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RE-DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH ON\r\nTHE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nOF 45 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 55 KT...T3.5...FROM TAFB AND 35 KT...T2.5...FROM SAB.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE EAST AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/12...  BASED ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT JERRY WILL RESUME A BASE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.\r\nDURING PAST 6 HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS YIELDED A TRANSLATIONAL\r\nMOTION OF 320/12.  HOWEVER...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT JERRY MAY\r\nALREADY HAVE RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AS INDICATED BY 5900 METER HEIGHTS\r\nAT SAN JUAN...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT JERRY COULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION FOR MUCH LONGER.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE AVN IS THE NORTHERNMOST MODEL AND BRINGS\r\nTHE CYCLONE ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHILE THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST MODELS ARE THE GFDN AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE JERRY\r\nRAPIDLY WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IN 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS HAVE BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT AND CONTINUE TO TAKE\r\nJERRY TOWARD JAMAICA IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO A\r\nUKMET-NOGAPS-DEEP BAM CONSENSUS FOR THE FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...ABOVE 200 MB...HAVE BEEN DISRUPTING THE\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST BY ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME EASTERLY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nFAVOR MORE INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING JERRY\r\nUP TO 72 KT AND 76 KT IN 72 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE UNTIL A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER AND A PERISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 13.3N  60.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 14.0N  62.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 14.8N  65.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N  67.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.2N  69.8W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N  74.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECON PERSONNEL MADE A VALIANT EFFORT TO TRY AND \r\nCLOSE OFF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT WERE UNABLE TO DO SO.  \r\nHOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA STILL INDICATED SEVERAL SMALL \r\nVORTICES WITHIN A BROAD CLOSED-CIRCULATION. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY \r\nOF 45 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nOF 55 KT...T3.5...FROM TAFB AND 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND \r\nAFWA. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR TO THE EAST AND POOR \r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION OF JERRY WAS MADE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION AND CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHERE A \r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOST LIKELY LOCATED.  THE RECON DATA ALSO \r\nINDICATES THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF JERRY IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK...AND THE LATEST UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE ALSO CONVERGED \r\nNICELY ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG \r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE...AND EVEN THE AVN \r\nMODEL HAS HAS SHIFTED FARTHER WEST AND NO LONGER TAKES JERRY ACROSS \r\nPUERTO RICO.  THE ONLY OUTLIERS APPEAR TO BE THE GFDL AND GFDN \r\nMODELS...WHICH RACE JERRY WESTWARD AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE \r\nBEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER HONDURAS.  THOSE TWO SOLUTIONS WERE \r\nIGNORED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE \r\nENVELOPE.  GIVEN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO \r\nTHE NORTH...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST \r\nPERIODS SEEMS REASONABLE. ON THIS TRACK...JERRY WOULD BE NEAR  \r\nEASTERN JAMAICA AND/OR SOUTHWESTERN HAITI IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR REASONING. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION MAY FINALLY BE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\n...WHICH WOULD INDICATE A STRENGTHENING TREND COULD BE DEVELOPING.  \r\nTHIS MAY BE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A RECON REPORT OF 1004 MB IN ONE OF \r\nTHE SMALL VORTICES NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD \r\nMASS.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS \r\nCONSERVATIVE UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND A PERISTENT CONVECTIVE \r\nPATTERN DEVELOPS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 14.1N  62.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 14.9N  64.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.6N  67.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.4N  69.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N  71.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N  76.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001\r\n \r\nJERRY IS NOT A WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW\r\nA LARGE LOW CLOUD ROTATION CONSISTENT WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS STILL\r\nELONGATED WITH A SECONDARY CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST...WELL REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CONVECTION...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER ONE TO THE SOUTH.\r\nADJUSTMENTS IN THE LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES THE AREA LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nMODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISRUPTING\r\nTHE OUTFLOW...AND THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  IF JERRY SURVIVES A DAY OR SO...IT\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN SINCE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A BETTER UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nJERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOLLOWING\r\nTHE PATH OF IRIS.  THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND ARE\r\nNOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO.  THERE IS A\r\nPERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nJERRY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SLOWING DOWN AS IT REACHES THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 14.3N  64.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N  67.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.3N  72.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N  75.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  79.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jerry","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2001\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING JERRY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH A FEW\r\nSQUALLS MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST\r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPENT\r\nIN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A FEW DAYS.  IF NECESSARY...\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIR FORCE PLANES WILL CHECK THE DISTURBANCE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 14.5N  66.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N  69.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE NON-TROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS BEEN LOOKING \r\nMORE TROPICAL TODAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE BAND \r\nNEARLY ENCIRCLING THE CENTER.  RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE AT THE 850 MB LEVEL...AND THE TEMPERATURE \r\nPROFILE IS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME \r\nNON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...INCLUDING ITS LOCATION WITHIN AN \r\nUPPER LOW...AND AN ELEVATED LEVEL OF MAXIMUM WIND AS EVIDENCED BY \r\nTHE 0000Z BERMUDA SOUNDING.  TWO OTHER FACTORS ARGUE FOR A \r\nSUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION AT THIS TIME.  FIRST...THE MAXIMUM WINDS \r\nREPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE \r\nBAND NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER...BUT WERE WELL OUTSIDE OF THIS \r\nBAND ABOUT 80 NM FROM THE CENTER.  SECOND...THE SYSTEM HAS \r\nAPPARENTLY NOT STRENGTHENED APPRECIABLY SINCE BERMUDA OBSERVED A \r\nSUSTAINED WIND OF 51 KT AT 0200Z...WELL BEFORE THE DEVELOPMENT OF \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT YET \r\nTRANSITIONED FROM BAROCLINIC TO CONVECTIVE ENERGETICS.  IT IS \r\nIMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE ARE NO WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARIES \r\nSEPARATING EXTRATROPICAL...SUBTROPICAL...AND TROPICAL CYCLONES.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO \r\nDEVELOP AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...KAREN... \r\nAT ANY TIME. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST MODEST \r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT NEITHER MODEL IS DESIGNED FOR THIS KIND OF SYSTEM. \r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE STORM AND NEITHER DOES THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD COLDER WATER \r\nSHOULD KILL IT OFF.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/8.  ONLY A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS \r\nEXPECTED AS STRONG DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEP TROUGH \r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL PARTIALLY BLOCK THE SYSTEMS PROGRESS.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE AVN/GFDL/UKMET CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 33.9N  66.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 34.9N  66.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 36.0N  66.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 37.4N  65.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 39.0N  65.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 43.0N  62.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  A RING OF THUNDERSTORMS IS TRYING TO FORM AROUND THE \r\nLARGE CENTER...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS FAILED SO FAR IN DEVELOPING ENOUGH \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE.  THEREFORE...IT DESERVES TO STAY AS \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM AND NOT TO BE NAMED KAREN AT THIS TIME.  THE \r\nSYSTEM STILL HAS THE OPORTUNITY TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO TROPICAL \r\nIN A DAY OR SO...BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  IT IS EXPECTED \r\nTO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...OR A WINTERTIME LOW...IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS MOVING ABOUT 015/08 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING \r\nTROUGH WILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND \r\nNORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 34.4N  65.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 35.6N  65.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 37.0N  65.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 39.0N  64.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 41.0N  62.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 44.0N  60.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MARKED INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ONE....WITH TOPS \r\nCOLDER THAN -60C PRESENT FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW EQUAL TO THE HEBERT- \r\nPOTEAT SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  ON THIS BASIS...THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KAREN.  THE \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WIL REMAIN AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/8.  KAREN IS IN AN AREA OF DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND STRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  THEREFORE...KAREN SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK WITHOUT A LOT OF ACCELERATION.\r\nNHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH\r\nABOUT A NORMAL SPREAD IN DIRECTION AND SPEED.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE EAST TO ALLOW FOR THE NEW INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nKAREN IS OVER 25C WATER AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SIMILAR SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES UNTIL IT CROSSES THE GULF STREAM.  INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nOVER WARM WATER...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER NORTH\r\nOF THE GULF STREAM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KAREN COULD REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IF THE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE FORMER CLEAR CENTER TO\r\nFORM A TRUE EYE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 35.2N  65.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 36.3N  64.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 37.8N  63.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 39.6N  62.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 41.5N  60.8W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 44.5N  58.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE \r\nNOW AT 60 KTS...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  IF THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM \r\nTHEN KAREN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  THIS... AND THE \r\nFACT THAT THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES KAREN VERY NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN \r\n12 HOURS IS THE BASIS FOR FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO 65 KTS.  THE \r\nSYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AFTER 12 HOURS AND \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 015/12.  KAREN IS SLOWLY\r\nACCELERATING AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND\r\nSTRONGER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG TROUGHING OVER THE UNITED\r\nSTATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THE DIRECTION\r\nOF MOTION OF THE SYSTEM BUT VARIES IN SPEED OF MOTION.  DISCUSSIONS\r\nWITH HPC SUGGEST THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT REFLECT THE CORRECT\r\nINITIAL MOTION AND THAT THEY ARE SLOW.  THIS IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII AND THE 12 FOOT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON QUIK-SCAT \r\nDATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 37.0N  64.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 38.7N  63.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 41.0N  62.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 43.5N  61.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 46.0N  59.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 50.0N  53.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karen","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nNOW AT 65 KTS...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THIS MAKES \r\nKAREN THE SIXTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE THIS SEASON.  THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nMAINTAINS KAREN AS A HURRICANE FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS THE \r\nWEAKENING PROCESS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 005/9.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM \r\nIS SLOWING DOWN AS SUGGESTED BY THE AVN...THE NOGAPS AND THE GFDL \r\nMODELS...NOT ACCELERATING AS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE \r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS ORIGINALLY FORECAST TO ACCELERATE KAREN \r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST HAS WEAKENED AND WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON \r\nTHE SYSTEM. THE GLOBAL MODELS WAIT FOR THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH WHICH \r\nWILL ACCELERATE KAREN OVER THE MARITIME PROVINCES.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEEDS ARE SLOWER AND IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nMENTIONED ABOVE.\r\n \r\nTHE 12 FOOT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 37.6N  64.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 38.5N  64.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 39.7N  64.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 40.9N  64.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 42.0N  64.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 45.0N  62.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karen","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nKAREN TOOK A LITTLE JOG TO THE RIGHT WITH A MOTION OF 040/08 OVER \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE 12 HOUR MOTION IS 020/08.  MOST OF THE \r\nHURRICANE TRACK MODELS LOSE THE CENTER IN 36 HOURS BUT THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SHOW AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST \r\nAFTER 24 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 \r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT KEEPS THE SAME GENERAL TRACK \r\nLOCATION.\r\n\r\nTHE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE \r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AS KAREN ENCOUNTERS COLD SSTS AND INCREASING \r\nSHEAR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST BY 48 HOURS BY WHICH \r\nTIME THE SSTS NEAR THE FORECAST TRACK ARE UNDER 20 DEG C.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 38.3N  63.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 39.4N  63.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 41.0N  63.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 43.1N  63.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 46.0N  61.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 50.0N  54.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karen","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n\r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SOLID RING OF \r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYE AND TOPS HAVE COOLED.  AS \r\nSUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT AND THIS IS \r\nSUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 70 KT FROM BOTH \r\nTAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/08.  KAREN HAS BEEN MOVING \r\nSLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THE DEEP LONGWAVE \r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD...WHICH \r\nIS HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE ALONG THE U.S. EAST \r\nCOAST.  THE SUBSEQUENT RIDGING HAS CAUSED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST \r\nWEST OF KAREN TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED.  \r\nTHIS IS CAUSING THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY \r\nWHICH SHOULD HELP TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IN \r\nTHE SHORT TERM. BY 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE \r\nFORECASTING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND \r\nALSO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED.  THIS SHOULD HELP KAREN TO ACCELERATE \r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AND THEN EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHEAST AND CROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN \r\nNEWFOUNDLAND AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN-NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS \r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nKAREN HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD \r\nBEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRACK \r\nOVER MUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES JUST NORTH OF 39N LATITUDE.  KAREN \r\nIS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE \r\nSYSTEM OVER NORTHEAST CANADA IN 36 HOURS AND BECOME COMPLETELY \r\nABSORBED BY THE LOW IN ABOUT 72 TO 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 39.1N  63.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 40.4N  63.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 42.6N  63.2W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 45.3N  62.7W    50 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 48.0N  59.0W    40 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 51.5N  54.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karen","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n \r\nKAREN IS BEGINNING THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME \r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. SATELLITE T-NUMBERS ARE JUST \r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE AT 65 KTS WHICH \r\nWILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BECOME A \r\nTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS KAREN HAS MADE SEVERAL TWISTS AND TURNS AND\r\nSHORT TERM ACCELERATIONS AND DECELERATIONS WITH THE NET 24 HOUR\r\nMOTION BEING 020/07...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.  THE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL\r\nEVENTUALLY PICK UP KAREN AND ACCELERATE HER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE\r\nFIRST 12 HOURS WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK\r\nPROJECTIONS.  A SLOW ACCELERATION BEGINS FROM 12 TO 36 HOURS...\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT TO THE EAST OF THEIR POSITIONS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 39.5N  63.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 40.5N  62.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 42.8N  62.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 45.3N  61.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 48.0N  58.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 50.0N  52.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n \r\nKAREN CONTINUES THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE \r\nLANDFALL ON THE NOVA SCOTIA COASTLINE IN THIS SAME TIME FRAME.  \r\nSATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KTS.  \r\n \r\nKAREN HAS JOGGED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND RUINED A PERFECTLY GOOD \r\nFORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  I BELIEVE THE MODELS HAVE \r\nGOTTEN IT CORRECT AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE \r\nSUITE OF GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD OVER \r\nNOVA SCOTIA AND LATER OVER LABRADOR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 40.8N  64.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 42.7N  64.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 46.6N  63.3W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 52.1N  59.8W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CYCLONES \r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS. KAREN \r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE COLDER WATERS...AND LOSE ITS \r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER REACHING NOVA SCOTIA.  IN 48 \r\nHOURS...OR SOONER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY.\r\n\r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD \r\nTHE RIGHT WITH ACCELERATION...AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH \r\nTHAT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO \r\nTHE AVN GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND AND SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 00Z SHIP AND \r\nBUOY OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 41.4N  64.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 43.7N  64.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 48.0N  62.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 51.5N  58.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS WELL.  KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COLD\r\nWATER AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND\r\nLOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL.  WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY.\r\n\r\nAFTER MOVING NNW AROUND A SMALL MID-LEVEL HIGH NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KAREN HAS TURNED BACK TO THE\r\nNORTH AND ACCELERATED.  NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUED TURN\r\nTO THE RIGHT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 43.2N  65.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 46.0N  63.5W    35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED/EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 15 2001\r\n \r\nKAREN HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NOVA SCOTIA.  THE PENN STATE PHASE \r\nANALYSIS USING THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THAT KAREN HAS ACQUIRED A \r\nCOLD CORE AND IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  THERE ARE STILL SOME 35 \r\nKNOT WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS KAREN LOSING ITS IDENTITY IN 12 TO 24 \r\nHOURS AS IT MERGES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM \r\nWILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE MARINE \r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 45.2N  64.1W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 48.0N  63.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z...MERGED WITH TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2001\r\n \r\nA LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS SHOWN PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION FOR THE PAST 24 HR.  WHILE THE SYSTEM MAY NOT BE\r\nFULLY TROPICAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO\r\nTHE SOUTH...TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND\r\n25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THUS THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FOURTEEN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nAPPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT FORWARD.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD WITH SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN THE LONG TERM...\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF LBAR...WHICH FOR SOME REASON MOVES THE \r\nDEPRESSION SOUTHEASTWARD...NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHT FORWARD.  THE\r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING GOOD DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN QUADRANT AND RESTRICTED OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX TROUGH/\r\nCYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  THE AVN AND UKMET FORECAST AN UNFAVORABLE 40-50 KT\r\nEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE 20-25 KT.  COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS THAT MODEL\r\nFORECASTS FOR 12Z DO NOT MATCH THE OUTFLOW CLOUD MOTIONS THAT\r\nWELL...AND THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD\r\nMODIFY THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM.  THE LOW CONFIDENCE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT SOMEWHAT\r\nLESS THAN THAT CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 27.0N  34.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N  35.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 27.2N  36.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 27.4N  38.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 27.7N  40.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 30.0N  44.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM AST SAT OCT 27 2001\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFOURTEEN RE-FORMED TO THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO A CLUSTER OF\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO SHEARED\r\nCONVECTION SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE RE-FORMATION MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF 280/5.  OTHER THAN THE RE-FORMATION...THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSOUTH OF A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD MOVE IT IN A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...A\r\nDEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD\r\nTURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  MOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH LBAR AND NHC98 ARE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nREST OF THE MODELS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS FOR THE NEW INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY TRICKY.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSHOWING SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE WIND DATA\r\nFROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER TO THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE 40-50 KT UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WINDS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND THE UKMET FOR RIGHT NOW ARE\r\nTOO STRONG.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THE CURRENT UPPER\r\nLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH/SHEAR\r\nAXIS...WITH ANOTHER LOW FORMING NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nBY 48 HR.  THIS MIGHT REDUCE THE SHEAR...BUT ALSO MAY WREAK HAVOC\r\nON THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE.  IN SPITE OF ALL THE APPARENT NEGATIVES...\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM TO NEAR\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HR.  GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nKEEP THE SLOW STRENGTHENING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 27.7N  36.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 27.8N  37.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N  38.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 28.2N  40.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 28.8N  42.9W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  45.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS \r\nABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH IN \r\nTHE WESTERLIES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK FROM WESTWARD TO \r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH AND THE DECREASING  \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION.  THERE MIGHT BE MORE THAN ONE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE \r\nSHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z AVIATION ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS 50 KNOT \r\nWINDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 200 MB.  DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS AND A RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWS \r\nA SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED PATTERN.  IN CONTRAST A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS \r\nSHOWS 35 KNOTS UNCONTAMINATED AND 40 KNOTS CONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS \r\nAND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 998 MB.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS WITH UNCERTAINTY.  THE FORECAST IS TO \r\n50 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS APPROXIMATELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH \r\nDOES NOT SHOW MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR.  NEITHER DOES THE CIMSS SATELLITE \r\nWIND SHEAR ANALYSIS.  ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY COMES FROM THE GFDL \r\nMODEL BRINGING THE WINDS TO 76 KNOTS WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS SLOW \r\nWEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 27.8N  37.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 27.9N  39.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 27.9N  40.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 28.1N  42.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 28.6N  44.1W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 32.5N  46.0W    50 KTS\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN OCT 28 2001\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST HAVE TILTED THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  A PARTIAL MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF THE SURFACE CENTER AND THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS MID-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION BECAUSE OF LOW FORECAST SHEAR VALUES ALONG THE\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER GIVES A GOOD INITIAL POSITION.  THIS\r\nPOSITION IS SOMEWHAT WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURLY VALUE.\r\nBASED UPON THIS AND THE FACT THAT THE PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES\r\nWERE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LARGER MARGIN OF ERROR THE\r\nDEPRESSION MAY HAVE BEEN MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS VALUES ARE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.  THIS GIVES AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/08.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH.  THE FORECAST IS FOR THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY\r\nBE REPLACED BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTHE TRACK FROM WESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 27.5N  39.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  40.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N  42.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 27.7N  44.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 28.7N  45.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 32.0N  46.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN OCT 28 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING UPPER-LEVEL \r\nSHEARING FROM THE NORTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED \r\nWESTWARD FASTER THAN THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS.  THE RESULT IS \r\nTHAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISPLACED WELL TO THE \r\nSOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES \r\nSIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS OCCURRING.  DESPITE THE \r\nNEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED...THE INTENSITY \r\nIS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES OF 30 KT...CI2.0... A 30 KT REPORT \r\nFROM SHIP EJGJ8 LOCATED 80 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 28/09Z... \r\nAND A 28/0758Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATING 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED \r\nWINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO \r\nTRACK MAINLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE IT GETS \r\nSTEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BY 36 \r\nHOURS...AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD ACT \r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD.  BY 48 HOURS...THE \r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND \r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL...AND POSSIBLY BECOME ABSORBED BY OR MERGE WITH \r\nA FRONTAL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PREDICATED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DRY SLOT OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\nIS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MOIST TONGUE IS WRAPPING IN \r\nFROM THE EAST SIDE.  THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR \r\nSOME PERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER LATER TONIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS \r\nLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE \r\nSHIPS OR GFDL INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING THE SYSTEM TO A STRONG \r\nTROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nNOTE...12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT \r\nBASED ON THE 14 FT SEA HEIGHT REPORTED BY SHIP EJGJ8 AND ALSO BASED \r\nON THE LARGE WIND FIELD INDICATED IN THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 27.6N  40.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 27.6N  41.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 27.7N  43.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 28.3N  45.2W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 29.8N  46.3W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 34.0N  45.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN OCT 28 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS CONTINUED TO PUSH WESTWARD AHEAD OF \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION \r\nNEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON THE \r\nAPPEARANCE OF A SUBTROPICAL LOW DUE TO CONVECTIVE BANDING BEING WELL \r\nAWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nINDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE \r\nINTENSITY AT 30 KT BASED ON A 24 KT REPORT FROM SHIP EJGJ8 LOCATED \r\nABOUT 120 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS OUTSIDE OF ANY \r\nCONVECTION.  ALSO...EXPERIMENTAL AMSU-B DATA FROM UW-CIMMS IS \r\nINDICATING A PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 998 MB.  WHILE THE PRESSURE \r\nSEEMS TO BE TOO LOW...THE ALGORITHM IS OBVIOUSLY STILL PICKING UP ON \r\nA SIGNIFICANT WARM CORE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH ADDS \r\nCREDENCE TO KEEPING IT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  TD-14 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN GRADUALLY SLOW\r\nAND MAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BY 72\r\nHOURS... AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE AND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD\r\nACT TO ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW...AND POSSIBLY EVEN ABSORBING IT INTO A FRONTAL LOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS...AND THEN TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nEXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nSINCE TD-14 IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER SSTS OF 27C AND HIGHER...THE \r\nPREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST TREND WAS MAINTAINED...WHICH IS STILL \r\nLOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS. HOWEVER... \r\nIF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN \r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN THE WARM CORE STRUCTURE WILL COLLAPSE AND \r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO A SUBTROPICAL LOW OR DISSIPATE \r\nCOMPLETELY...PERHAPS BY THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNOTE...12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY \r\nPRODUCT BASED ON THE 13 FT SEA HEIGHT REPORTED BY SHIP EJGJ8.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 27.5N  41.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N  43.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 27.7N  45.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 28.3N  47.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 30.0N  47.2W    35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 36.0N  44.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN OCT 28 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE \r\nREMAINING DEEP CONVECTION AMD DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS OF 1.0 FROM TAFB \r\nAND SAB SUGGEST THAT IT IS TIME TO DECLARE THE SYSTEM A SWIRL OF LOW \r\nCLOUDS AND DISCONTINUE ADVISORIES.  HOWEVER THE SHIP ELGJ8 ABOUT 90 \r\nN MI EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 30 KNOTS AND 13 FT SEAS AT 21Z.  SO \r\nADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST A WHILE LONGER.  IT IS \r\nNOTABLE THAT THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST STRENGTHENING TO 55 \r\nAND 75 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ONE DOES NOT EXPECT \r\nA SYSTEM THAT IS AS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AS THIS ONE \r\nTO STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY KEEPS THE \r\nWIND SPEED AT 30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS \r\n265/09.  AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO \r\nRECURVE THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN 48 HOURS WHILE \r\nABSORBING IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 27.2N  41.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 27.2N  43.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 27.7N  45.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 29.3N  46.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 31.7N  45.8W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 40.0N  40.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON OCT 29 2001\r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE NEAR \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS \r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE SYSTEM.  IF \r\nTHIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY \r\nBE MORE REALISTIC.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR \r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 45 KTS NEAR THE POINT OF RECURVATURE. AT 72 \r\nHOURS THE SYSTEM WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE \r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL GIVE 30 KTS \r\nAND SHIP ELGJ8 AGAIN REPORTED AT 0600Z WITH A 30 KT SOUTHEAST WIND.  \r\nTHE SHIP WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 285/08.  AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO\r\nRECURVE THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN 36 HOURS WHILE\r\nABSORBING IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 27.7N  42.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 27.8N  43.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 28.8N  45.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  46.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 34.0N  44.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 42.0N  38.0W    20 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON OCT 29 2001\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING CONVECTION IN ITS NORTH-EAST QUADRANT \r\nTHIS MORNING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 \r\nKT...BUT SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE IN THE 30 TO 35 KT \r\nRANGE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH\r\nTHE APPROACH OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN STATES.  THE RECENT EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MAY INDICATE THAT THIS IS ALREADLY\r\nBEGINNING.  THUS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY\r\nRECURVATURE...IS EXPECTED.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL\r\nCLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING TO A \r\nTROPICAL STORM.  ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN TO THE NORTH THE \r\nSHEAR MAY LESSEN TEMPORARILY.  GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY A \r\nSTORM ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONCURS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE \r\nACCELERATING CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\nASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 28.0N  43.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 28.4N  45.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 30.0N  46.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 32.7N  45.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 36.5N  43.0W    40 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-10-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON OCT 29 2001\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING CONVECTION IN ITS NORTH-EAST QUADRANT.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 25\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL \r\nREMAIN AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE \r\nDEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH\r\nTHE APPROACH OF THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN STATES.  THUS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY\r\nRECURVATURE...IS EXPECTED.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL\r\nCLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES THE TURN TO THE NORTH THE\r\nSHEAR MAY LESSEN TEMPORARILY.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE ACCELERATING\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 28.2N  44.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 29.1N  45.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 31.3N  45.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 34.5N  43.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 38.5N  40.5W    40 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-10-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON OCT 29 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM \r\nLORENZO BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND \r\nAFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB. HOWEVER...AFWA REPORTED A DATA-T NUMBER \r\nOF 3.0...45 KT...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER \r\nAND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ALSO IMPROVED SINCE THE 30/00Z SATELLITE \r\nANALYSES.  ALSO...EARLIER TODAY...SEVERAL SHIPS REPORTED THE HIGHEST \r\nWINDS OF 30 KT WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION...SO \r\nTAKING THE CYCLONE UP TO 35 KT SEEMS REASONABLE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nIS FAIR TO THE NORTH AND IMPROVING AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS \r\nDECREASED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT LORENZO IS BEGINNING TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY \r\nTHE APPROACHING TROUGH TO THE WEST AND GRADUAL RECURVATURE SHOULD \r\nBEGIN IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED...SOME ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE \r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF MORE THAN 40 KT KICKS IN AND \r\nDECAPITATES LORENZO. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED BECOME ABSORBED BY \r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT \r\nAND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 28.7N  45.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 30.3N  45.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 32.9N  45.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 36.3N  42.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  38.0W    35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-10-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.  THERE IS A WINDOW OF\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS AVAILABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nENCOUNTERS A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...LORENZO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n\r\nA MID-LEVEL TROUGH...APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...IS GRADUALLY \r\nBREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LORENZO.  THEREFORE THE \r\nSTORMS HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  LORENZO WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE DUE TO THE FLOW ON \r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH...BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 29.9N  45.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 32.0N  45.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 34.5N  44.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 37.0N  41.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-10-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n\r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF LORENZO HAS PARTED\r\nCOMPANY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...SO THAT WILL REMAIN THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY.  GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WIND\r\nPATTERN THAT DOES NOT LOOK THAT FAVORABLE...LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF LORENZO'S LIFE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/18...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH.  LORENZO IS RECURVING IN FRONT OF A VIGOROUS\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL LOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR\r\nTHE STORM TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BEFORE BEING\r\nABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL LOW IN 24-36 HR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 31.9N  45.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 34.5N  44.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 37.6N  41.9W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-10-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n\r\nLORENZO SHOWS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A CLUSTER OF\r\nCONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  WHILE PERIPHERAL SHIP REPORTS\r\nAT 18Z DO NOT CONCLUSIVELY SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION...REPORTS OF\r\nA 1012.2 MB PRESSURE FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41523 ABOUT 75 NM WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 17Z SUGGESTS THAT LORENZO STILL HAS AT\r\nLEAST CLOSED ISOBARS.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED\r\nON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 005/18.  LORENZO WILL TURN MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY ABSORB LORENZO\r\nIN 24-36 HR AND POSSIBLY LESS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY\r\nBEFORE THE ABSORPTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 33.8N  45.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 36.6N  44.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 41.6N  40.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-10-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS LORENZO IS ALIGNED WITH THE\r\nSTORM MOTION...THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND A SMALL CDO-LIKE\r\nCONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE\r\nPREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY SINCE\r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONLY PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/23.  LORENZO HAS MADE THE TURN\r\nAND IS NOW RECURVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT LIES\r\nEAST-WEST ALONG 32N LATITUDE.  THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL CLOUD\r\nBAND AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CATCH UP WITH\r\nLORENZO AND ABSORB THE SYSTEM IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  UNTIL THEN...\r\nSTEADY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GFDL-AVN\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nOVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LORENZO IS\r\nABSORBED BY FRONTAL TROUGH.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...IT IS QUITE\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT LORENZO CLOUD BRIEFLY REACH 40 KT INTENSITY BEFORE\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR KICKS IN AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 35.9N  44.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 39.6N  42.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 45.3N  38.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-10-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE STORM.  SINCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING QUITE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST...IT BARELY HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION...BUT IS\r\nPROBABLY STILL PRODUCING 35 KNOT WINDS OVER ITS EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nLORENZO IS IN THE PROCESS OF LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND \r\nIS MERGING WITH THE ADJACENT FRONTAL ZONE.  THEREFORE THIS WILL BE \r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 38.7N  42.1W    35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 42.0N  39.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION \r\nON THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1005 MB.  \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK BUT BROAD CIRCULATION...WITH MOST OF \r\nTHE CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE \r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND LOW-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT IN THAT CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN \r\nA WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW PATTERN...SO MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM IS \r\nLIKELY TO BE SLOW.  GIVEN THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER \r\nLAND...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER COULD REFORM TO THE \r\nNORTH IF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED THERE.  MOST OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE \r\nDAYS.  THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST...BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO THE WESTERN \r\nTIP OF CUBA...WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL \r\nAMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND UKMET \r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER \r\nLAND...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND WILL BE SLOW TO WIND DOWN.  \r\nONCE IT GETS BACK OVER WATER...THE DEPRESSION COULD FIND ITSELF \r\nUNDER A HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THAT WOULD FAVOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION...AS LONG AS IT STAYS SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST UPPER \r\nLEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 13.0N  83.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.7N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.7N  84.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 15.9N  84.7W    30 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N  85.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  85.5W    55 KTS  \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON OCT 29 2001\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE DEPRESSION THIS EVENING.  \r\nHOWEVER...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND JUST \r\nNORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT THIS SYSTEM \r\nIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE \r\nIMPRESSIVE WITH OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND ALSO TO THE \r\nSOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/04...BUT THIS MAY BE MORE DUE TO \r\nREFORMATION OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING FLOW PATTERN...BUT A GENERAL \r\nNORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT SEEMS IN ORDER GIVEN THE LARGE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET \r\nMODEL WHICH KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AS A WEAK SYSTEM AND STEERED MORE \r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS TAKE \r\nCYCLONE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWARD \r\nAFTER THAT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHT TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL TRACK.  NOTE...BEYOND \r\nTHIS FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT \r\nTHIS SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND \r\nPOSSIBLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS OVER\r\nLAND. HOWEVER...THE INCREASING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE DUE TO LAND \r\nINTERACTION ON THE WEST SIDE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE \r\nINNER-CORE CIRCULATION. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFCTAION PROCESS BY \r\n36 HOURS WHEN THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE \r\nWARM WATER OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. STEADY STRENGTHENING \r\nCOULD OCCUR BY 48 HOURS GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CURRENT AND FORECAST \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN... AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT THIS \r\nSYSTEM COULD BE A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 13.9N  83.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.6N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.6N  84.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 16.6N  84.9W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N  85.1W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  85.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT A FORMAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION IS\r\nNOT POSSIBLE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS INLAND.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS AT 30 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY OCCURRING\r\nOVER THE WATER WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND.\r\nASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM REACHES THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME.  LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF WHERE THE CYCLONE MIGHT END UP...AND\r\nWHAT KIND OF ENVIRONMENT IT FINDS ITSELF IN.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO HELP LOCATE THE CENTER...BUT \r\nSATELLITE-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB \r\nWASHINGTON INDICATE THAT IT IS LOCATED IS INLAND AND A LITTLE WEST \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY \r\nDRIFTING ERRATICALLY...AND INITIAL MOVEMENT IS ASSUMED TO BE \r\nSTATIONARY.  THE AVN MODEL DEVELOPS A SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING \r\nFLOW...BETWEEN AN ANTICYLCONE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND A \r\nCYCLONE NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS \r\nWOULD INDUCE A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER \r\nTHE U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE \r\nAVN SOLUTION.  BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY \r\nOF THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...AND \r\nTURNING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC \r\nWESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nFOR NOW...THE BIGGEST DANGER OF THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER \r\nNICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODING/MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 13.9N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N  84.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 16.0N  85.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.2N  85.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.3N  85.4W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  85.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS OVER LAND...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND PATTERN STARTING\r\n60-75 NM FROM THE CENTER.  SINCE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND...THERE\r\nARE NO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL \r\nREMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THE GOOD OVERALL APPEARANCE.\r\n\r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND SHOULD LATER IMAGERY CONFIRM THIS\r\nIT MAY NEED TO BE RE-LOCATED ON THE NEXT PACKAGE.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS SLOW PRESSURE FALLS\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BEGIN A\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND IF\r\nTHE CENTER WERE OVER WATER IT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  LITTLE CHANGE IS STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE THE\r\nCENTER IS OVER LAND.  CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTH WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF\r\nHONDURAS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A \r\nTROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES\r\nRATHER UNCERTAIN DUE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE\r\nPOSITION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TROUGH...WITH THE POSSIBILITIES\r\nRANGING FROM INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE TO ARRESTED\r\nDEVELOPMENT DUE TO SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND CALL FOR CONTINUED SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nFOR NOW...THE BIGGEST DANGER OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nOVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODING/MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 13.9N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 14.7N  84.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.9N  85.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 16.9N  85.2W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N  85.4W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  85.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIFTEEN IS NOW OVER THE COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF PUERTO\r\nCABEZAS...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER HAS PERHAPS RE-FORMED.  THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED...\r\nALTHOUGH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE CENTER AND A\r\nRATHER IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS IS A TEMPORARY\r\nCONDITION.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WHILE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING\r\nOVER THE CARIBBEAN EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD\r\nEVENTUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH OBVIOUSLY IT HAS\r\nBEEN RATHER RELUCTANT TO MOVE THAT WAY SO FAR.  NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE IS SPREAD BETWEEN A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD MOTION AT\r\nVARIOUS SPEEDS.  THE AVN...BAMM...AND BAMS TRACK THE SYSTEM\r\nNORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...LBAR...AND VICBAR CALL FOR A NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION.  THE GFDL NOGAPS...BAMD...AND GUNS MODELS CALL FOR A NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THAT IS WHAT IS\r\nFOLLOWED IN THIS FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND AN EXPECTED\r\nSLOWER MOTION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SHOULD OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER CROSSES\r\nNORTHEASTER NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.  ONCE THE CENTER GETS\r\nCLEAR OF LAND...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nAS A LARGE-SCALE RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.  THE NEW FORECAST AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL DATA INDICATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...\r\nWHICH IF THINGS VERIFY COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFOR NOW...THE BIGGEST DANGER OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nOVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODING/MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 12.9N  83.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 13.7N  83.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 14.7N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 15.9N  84.1W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.2N  84.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  84.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS MOVED OR REFORMED FARTHER NORTH\r\nALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.  THIS MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE WINDS AT PUERTO CABEZAS STEADILY VEERING AROUND\r\nFROM THE EAST TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND NEARBY SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED ANOTHER 2 MB...WHICH\r\nIS SUPPORTED BY A 2 MB PRESSURE DECREASE IN THE UW-CIMMS AMSU-B\r\nDERIVED PRESSURE VALUES DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT SINCE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE\r\nLOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AS SUGGESTED BY EARLIER SSMI- AND TRMM-DERIVED\r\nSURFACE WIND ESTIMATES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/04.  AS WAS THE CASE THIS SAME\r\nTIME LAST NIGHT...THE APPARENT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION MAY BE DUE \r\nPRIMARILY TO REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE \r\nDEEPER CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS \r\nSUGGEST THAT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST HAS \r\nSTRENGTHENED...WHICH MAY FINALLY BE INDUCING A NORTHWARD COMPONENT \r\nOF MOTION TO THE CYCLONE.  THE AVN MODEL HAS MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO \r\nTHE EAST AND IS THE RIGHT-MOST MODEL OF ALL THE NHC FORECAST \r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH IT BENDS THE TRACK BACK TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND IS JUST WEST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN 72 HOURS.  \r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FANS OUT FROM BELIZE EASTWARD TO \r\nCENTRAL CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST ON TOP OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND IS MIDWAY \r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL MODEL TO THE WEST AND THE AVN MODEL TO THE EAST.\r\n  \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION REMAINS OVER OR NEAR LAND.  ONCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nEMERGES OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF\r\nHONDURAS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR\r\nSINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALREADY WELL-DEFINED AND THE\r\nPRESSURE CONTINUES TO DROP EVEN WHILE THE CENTER HAS BEEN OVER LAND.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST\r\nAND POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE 18Z GFDL RUN \"ONLY\"\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE TO A 114 KT/945 MB CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS.  WHILE THIS SEEMS A LITTLE OVERDONE AT\r\nTHIS POINT IN TIME...THIS IS STILL LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH\r\nTOOK THE SYSTEM TO 121 KT AND 927 MB AT THE SAME TIME AND LOCATION.\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL...BUT EVEN IT\r\nTAKES THE SYSTEM UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS.  THE TRUTH\r\nMAY EVENTUALLY LIE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING/MUD SLIDES OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS\r\nREMAIN THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 14.1N  83.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 14.7N  83.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.7N  84.3W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.8N  84.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N  84.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE LACKING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING THE TWO-CHANNEL\r\nNIGHT-TIME IR COMBO...INDICATE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER.\r\nALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED WEAK...IT IS EXPECTED THAT\r\nHEIGHTS WILL RISE TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND CAUSE A SLOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER THE STEERING FLOW\r\nIS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG ANY TIME SOON...SINCE THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE\r\nOVER THE CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST\r\nAVN AND U.K.  MET.  OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE AVN TRACK SHIFTING TO THE LEFT OF THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS RUN AND THE U.K.  MODEL SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT.  HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL...AND THE NOGAPS...STILL SHOW\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...FORCING A MOTION MORE TOWARDS EASTERN YUCATAN.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST AVN OUTPUT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE\r\nLATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE VERY FICKLE WITH\r\nREGARD TO TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF \r\nLAND...BUT IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY HEALTHY CIRCULATION.  UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW IS WEAK OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION BUT \r\nOTHERWISE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING...ONCE THE CENTER \r\nIS ABLE TO GET OUT OVER THE WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS AGAIN MORE \r\nCONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL GUIDANCE...OWING TO THE \r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOCATION AND ENVIRONMENT OF THE SYSTEM BY THE \r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE BIG CONCERN FOR NOW IS THE SEVERE FLOODING THAT UNDOUBTEDLY \r\nCONTINUES TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEPRESSION.  THIS \r\nUNDERSCORES THE POINT THAT TROPICAL CYCLONES DO NOT NEED TO HAVE \r\nSTRONG WINDS TO BE DANGEROUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 14.0N  83.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 14.7N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.4N  84.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.3N  84.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.4N  84.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N  85.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE OVER NORTHEASTERN\r\nNICARAGUA.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST INLAND ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.\r\nTHE SURFACE DATA SUGGESTS THE PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1004 MB...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  MORE DETAILED DATA ON THE\r\nPOSITION AND INTENSITY SHOULD BE AVAILABLE LATER TODAY WHEN AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nA WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nAND MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THIS PATTERN SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48-\r\n72 HR...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG A SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nAROUND A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLUSTER NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS TOPS TO -80C.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nSHORTLY AFTER THE CENTER REACHES THE WATER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS\r\nOVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nTAKES THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE GREATEST CONCERN CURRENTLY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE FLOODING\r\nTHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THIS DEPRESSION.  THIS UNDERSCORES THE POINT THAT\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES DO NOT NEED TO HAVE STRONG WINDS TO BE DANGEROUS.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR...THERE IS SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME.\r\nIT IS THEREFORE TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF ANY PORTION OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES WILL BE THREATENED BY THIS SYSTEM.  STAY TUNED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 14.9N  83.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N  83.8W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.4N  84.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.3N  84.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N  84.9W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N  85.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE BROAD\r\nCENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN IS NOW OVER THE WATER JUST\r\nOFFSHORE FROM CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.  PRELIMINARY AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nAPPEARS TO LOCATE THE CENTER IN A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST\r\nOF CABO GRACIAS.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE\r\nIS ROTATING AROUND A BROAD CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THAT CENTER\r\nIS THE ADVISORY POSITION.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED\r\nSO FAR BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 42 KT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002\r\nMB.  THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION PENDING MORE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO STEERS THE CYCLONE\r\nIN A GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN 6 HR AGO...WITH THE NOGAPS...\r\nUKMET...LBAR...AND VICBAR TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWEST TOWARD THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING A\r\nMORE NORTHERLY MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nCALL FOR A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SIMILAR BUT JUST TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ERRATIC\r\nMOTION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM RE-ORGANIZES ITSELF.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND\r\nWHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOT CURRENTLY WELL ORGANIZED THERE ARE\r\nTOPS TO -80C NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THUS...THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 HR AND \r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE GREATEST CONCERN CURRENTLY CONTINUES TO BE THE SEVERE FLOODING\r\nTHAT IS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH THIS CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL TRACK\r\nFORECASTS AFTER 72 HR...THEREFORE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF\r\nANY PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE THREATENED BY THIS SYSTEM.\r\nSTAY TUNED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 15.3N  83.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.0N  83.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.9N  83.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.9N  84.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N  84.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N  85.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michelle","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-11-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 1500 FT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT LOCATED NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION.  THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT 36 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE...SO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHELLE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OWING TO THE SOUTHERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST\r\n4 HOURS SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS\r\nQUITE IMPRESSIVE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS ALSO SHOWING \r\nSIGNS OF BECOMING LESS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5.  THE APPARENT NORTHWARD JUMP\r\nIN THE CENTER POSITION IS PRIMARILY DUE TO REFORMATION FARTHER NORTH\r\nNEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN THE HISTORY OF THIS\r\nCYCLONE DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE \r\nGULFSTREAM-IV AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THERE IS A NARROW BREAK IN THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BASED ON A TROUGH AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM \r\nMICHELLE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN CUBA.  ONLY THE 18Z AVN \r\nMODEL PICKED UP ON THIS SUBTLE FEATURE.  THE CURRENT POSITION AND \r\nSTRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO \r\nREMAIN STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THEREFORE...MICHELLE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY UP THE TROUGH IN A NORTHWARD OR \r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD WESTERN CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD POSITION OF THE CENTER \r\nBASED ON THE RECON DATA.  THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE \r\n18Z AVN MODEL.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODEL SOLUTIONS OF TAKING \r\nMICHELLE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WERE NOT \r\nCONSIDERED SINCE THEY KEEP THE CYCLONE VERY WEAK...WHICH ALLOWS THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO DRIVE THE STORM MORE WESTWARD.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER OF MICHELLE IS FINALLY OVER WARM WATER...STEADY \r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR IN SPITE OF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE \r\nSYSTEM. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY...WHICH \r\nBRINGS MICHELLE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...MY \r\nBIGGEST CONCERN IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY TUCK IN UNDERNEATH \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION SOONER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH IS WHAT THE LATEST \r\nSATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS MAY BE HAPPENING. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE \r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN IS CURRENTLY INDICATED.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS \r\nALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN AND VERY WARM SSTS CURRENTLY EXISTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST \r\nCARIBBEAN SEA.  RECENT HISTORY INDICATES THAT THIS IS THE SAME \r\nPATTERN THAT PRODUCED HURRICANES MITCH AND LENNY IN THIS SAME AREA.\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL TRACK\r\nFORECASTS AFTER 72 HR...THEREFORE IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE IF\r\nANY PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BE THREATENED BY THIS SYSTEM.\r\nSTAY TUNED.  HOWEVER...IF MICHELLE TRACKS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN \r\nFORECAST...THEN IT COULD REACH THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE \r\nTHE NEXT BLOCKING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN TURN TO THE EAST \r\nLIKE THE AVN MODEL IS INDICATING BY AROUND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 16.1N  83.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 16.8N  83.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N  83.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.9N  84.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N  84.4W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 22.0N  84.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michelle","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-11-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU NOV 01 2001\r\n \r\nMICHELLE IS STRENGTHENING.  HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE\r\nCENTER WITHIN THE VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...APPROACHING -90C.  THE \r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 997 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED \r\n57-KNOT WINDS AT THE 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL EXITING THE CENTER IN THE \r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KNOTS.  ASIDE \r\nFROM SOME MODEST SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...CONDITIONS FAVOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THREE OF FIVE STATISTICALLY-DERIVED CRITERIA FOR \r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION ARE ALSO SATISFIED...GIVING A PROBABILITY OF \r\nABOUT 12 PERCENT FOR A 30 KT OR GREATER WIND SPEED INCREASE OVER THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE \r\nCONSERVATIVE.  HISTORICALLY THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN HAS SEEN SOME \r\nVERY STRONG HURRICANES...WITH THE MOST RECENT EXAMPLE BEING IRIS \r\nJUST LAST MONTH.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT \r\nBASED ON LONGER-TERM AVERAGES THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/4.  \r\nNUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT A VERY WEAK STEERING \r\nPATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nNCEP...U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL MODELS IS FOR A SLOW \r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE PERIOD.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ALONG \r\nMORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY. \r\n\r\nIN THE LONGER TERM...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A BROAD 500 MB \r\nTROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THIS FEATURE COULD \r\nINDUCE A SIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN OF MICHELLE...HOWEVER THERE ARE \r\nSUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTIES IN 96-120 HOUR TRACK FORECASTS.  \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 16.6N  83.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 17.4N  83.9W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.4N  84.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 19.3N  84.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N  84.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 21.5N  84.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michelle","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-11-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU NOV 01 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...BUT MICHELLE HAS BEEN \r\nMAINTAINING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING... \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME SOUTHERLY OR \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.  BASED ON PREVIOUS TRENDS AND SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AT 12Z...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET \r\nTO 60 KT.  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TELL US MORE.\r\nCONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...EVEN FOR RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS \r\nGUIDANCE...AND BRINGS MICHELLE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN TWO \r\nDAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WITH EVEN VISIBLE \r\nIMAGERY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT MICHELLE HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE \r\nLEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/6.  STEERING IS \r\nCURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO AND HIGH \r\nPRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST \r\nTHAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A LARGE CUTOFF DIGS SOUTH OUT THE \r\nMID-LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH \r\nTROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY TURN MICHELLE TO THE \r\nRIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW \r\nSHARP A TURN MICHELLE WILL MAKE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR TO FIVE DAY \r\nTIME FRAME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 17.2N  83.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N  84.4W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  84.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.8N  85.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N  85.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  84.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michelle","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-11-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU NOV 01 2001\r\n \r\nSPECIAL NOTE...WE HAVE JUST BEEN NOTIFIED THAT THE GOVERNMENT OF \r\nCUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR WESTERN CUBA...AND THIS \r\nINFORMATION WILL BE REFLECTED IN CORRECTED PUBLIC AND \r\nFORECAST/ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED MOMENTARILY.\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS...FROM 850 MB...OF 55 KT...WITH A PEAK VISUAL SURFACE ESTIMATE\r\nOF 50 KT.  COLLECTIVELY...THESE WINDS DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT THE\r\nINTENSITY THAT WE HAD IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING LOWERED TO A PERHAPS STILL GENEROUS 55 KT.  THE LAST FIX\r\nPRESSURE WAS 989 MB...BUT THIS WAS EXTRAPOLATED AND THEIR\r\nEXTRAPOLATIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 2 MB LOW...SO THE ADVISORY\r\nPRESSURE IS 991 MB.  SINCE THE PRESSURE IS STILL FALLING...ABOUT 6\r\nMB IN 12 HOURS...THE DECREASE IN ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD NOT BE\r\nCONSTRUED AS A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT MICHELLE HAS\r\nMOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONTINUING ITS PATTERN OF\r\nMOVING IN FITS AND STARTS.  THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE MOTION...\r\nHOWEVER...IS 330/4.  MICHELLE IS MOVING BETWEEN MID-LEVEL LOW\r\nPRESSURE OVER MEXICO AND A HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\nTHE AVN AND THE UKMET GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE\r\nDRIVEN SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A LARGE CUTOFF DIGS SOUTHWARD\r\nEAST OF BERMUDA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THIS COMBINES WITH\r\nTROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO TURN MICHELLE TO THE RIGHT NEAR\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER...AND IS A LITTLE \r\nNORTH OF THE AVN.\r\n\r\nBEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR HOW SHARP A TURN\r\nMICHELLE WILL MAKE.  THE AVN TURNS MICHELLE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL\r\nCUBA...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS MORE OF A THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE\r\nGFDL LIES IN BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS.  IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TELL \r\nWHICH OF THESE OPTIONS...IF ANY...WILL VERIFY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 17.0N  83.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.6N  84.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.4N  84.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.4N  84.7W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  84.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michelle","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-11-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU NOV 01 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT MICHELLE IS\r\nGETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE STARTING TO STRENGTHEN...AND MAY \r\nBE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. HOWEVER...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 55 KT \r\nWILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE \r\nCYCLONE AGAIN AROUND 06Z.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE \r\nT4.0...65 KT...FROM TAFB AND T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS 345/4...AND THIS WAS\r\nUSED FOR THE ADVISORY MOTION.  THE LATEST 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND\r\nGULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES A NARROW 500 MB RIDGE AXIS\r\nEXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE\r\nFLORIDA KEYS.  THIS IS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE\r\nPOSITION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHICH MODEL\r\nHAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF MICHELLE.  THE LAST TWO\r\nUKMET MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER...BRINGING\r\nMICHELLE INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS IN 72 HOURS.  IN\r\nCONTRAST...THE 18Z AVN CONTINUES ITS MUCH SLOWER TREND OF TAKING\r\nMICHELLE ONLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nLASTEST 18Z GFDL RUN IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN IN KEEPING MICHELLE SOUTH\r\nOF WESTERN CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  HOWEVER...THUS FAR THE\r\nUKMET MODEL HAS VERIFIED THE LOCATION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN THE\r\nBEST...AND WAS FORECASTING A SOUTHERLY SPEED MAX OF 25 KT JUST WEST\r\nOF JAMAICA FOR 00Z.  THE AVN AND GFDL WERE BOTH ONLY FORECASTING A\r\nSOUTHERLY WIND OF 15 KT FOR THE SAME LOCATION.  00Z 500 MB DATA FROM\r\nGULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDES INDICATED A SOUTHERLY WIND OF 25 KT AT THAT\r\nLOCATION...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE UKMET MODEL MAY HAVE THE\r\nBEST HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  ALSO...\r\nTHE UKMET TENDS TO PERFORM WELL WITH LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE\r\nMICHELLE...SO THE LATEST UKMET MODEL RUNS COMMAND SOME RESPECT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY LEFT OF TRACK AFTER THAT.\r\nTHIS IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET-GFDL-AVN MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nMICHELLE MOVES AS FAST AS THE UKMET MODEL IS INDICATING...THEN IT\r\nCOULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE THE NEXT SURGE\r\nOF HIGH PRESSURE COMES DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nTHIS WOULD DELAY THE SHARP EASTWARD MOTION LIKE THE SLOWER AVN MODEL \r\nIS FORECASTING...AND RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.  \r\nTHE GULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA SHOULD MAKE FOR SOME VERY \r\nINTERESTING 00Z GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nLIKE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AND PREVIOUS NIGHTS...ANOTHER BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS FIRED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT WAS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE EXACT LOCATION WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...NO CHANGE WAS MADE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE 150 MB WIND DATA INDICATES\r\nAN ALMOST SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW LAYER AT THAT LEVEL...WHICH WOULD\r\nNORMALLY BE PERFECT FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...MICHELLE'S\r\n200 MB AND 300 MB CIRCULATIONS LIE JUST SOUTH OF THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS\r\nAT THOSE LEVELS AND THAT IS CAUSING SOME VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE\r\nEAST AND SOUTHEAST TO UNDERCUT THE HIGHER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER.  ONCE\r\nMICHELLE GETS ON OR JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NEAR\r\n19N LATITUDE...THEN SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.\r\n\r\nIT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTER OF MICHELLE \r\nWILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALL \r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 17.6N  83.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.2N  84.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N  84.1W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  84.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.1N  84.1W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  82.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michelle","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-11-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n\r\nMICHELLE SHOWS AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE DURING THE EARLY\r\nMORNING HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -85C TO -90C DEVELOPING\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING THE STORM RECENTLY REPORTED AN\r\nEXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 982 MB...WHICH IS ADJUSTED TO\r\n985 MB FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE \r\nEXTRAPOLATED AND DROPSONDE VALUES FROM THE PREVIOUS FIX.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE ONLY 62 KT...AND \r\nDROPSONDES IN THE WIND MAXIMA DO NOT INDICATE HURRICANE-FORCE\r\nSURFACE WINDS.  SO...MICHELLE WILL BE A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER ERRATIC 345/3...AND THIS MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET\r\nSHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EAST OF MICHELLE...WHILE SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE STORM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD PERSIST FOR 36-48 HR...AND NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THAT\r\nTIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THINGS\r\nGET MORE COMPLEX AFTER 48 HR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nA DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWILL WEAKEN THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE AND FORCE IT SOUTHWARD...ALLOWING\r\nMICHELLE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD.  THE UKMET BRINGS THE\r\nFARTHEST TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE AVN-BASED GUIDANCE...INCLUDING\r\nTHE GFDL...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND MOVE MICHELLE TO WESTERN\r\nCUBA BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nWHILE THERE STILL MAY BE A LITTLE SHEAR OVER MICHELLE...THE OUTFLOW\r\nIS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING\r\nELSEWHERE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST\r\n36 HR.  MICHELLE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF\r\nIT CAN DEVELOP A BETTER-ORGANIZED CENTRAL CORE.  AFTER 36 HR...\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY THE WESTERLIES...WHICH\r\nCOULD EXPOSE MICHELLE TO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR.  THIS IS MOST EVIDENT\r\nIN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH CAPS THE INTENSITY AT 80 KT IN 36 HR.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR MICHELLE TO REACH 95 KT IN\r\n48 HR...BASED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE\r\nTHE FORECAST SHEAR CAN STOP IT.\r\n \r\nIT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTER OF MICHELLE\r\nWILL PASS OVER OR CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS. ALL\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 17.6N  83.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.3N  84.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.2N  84.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N  84.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N  83.9W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    95 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-11-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE NOT QUITE THERE YET... \r\nMICHELLE WAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE EARLIER THIS MORNING BASED ON \r\nTWO DROPWINDSONDE SURFACE WIND REPORTS OF 69 KT AND A THIRD OF 63 \r\nKT.  MICHELLE IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE CLASSICAL CIRCULAR \r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EVIDENCE OF SHEAR IS \r\nDIMINISHING.  FOR THE FIRST TIME...ALL 5 OF THE STATISTICAL \r\nPREDICTORS FROM THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISIONS EXPERIMENTAL RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION MODEL HAVE BEEN SATISFIED.  GIVEN THIS...THE \r\nIMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE... INCLUDING THE FIRST EVIDENCE OF A \r\nDEVELOPING EYE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL THE \r\nEXPLICIT GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR MICHELLE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE \r\nSTATUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC BUT AVERAGES TO 360/3.  GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW N TO NNW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 \r\nHOURS.  BEYOND THAT...THE UKMET HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TAKING THE \r\nSYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD AND THEN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE AVN HAS BEEN \r\nEVEN MORE CONSISTENT IN TURNING MICHELLE SHARPLY EASTWARD ACROSS \r\nCENTRAL CUBA.  THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEARS \r\nTO LIE IN THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST \r\nTO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE UKMET \r\nHAS A SHARPER TROUGH WITH WEAKER WESTERLIES...WHILE THE AVN \r\nFORECASTS A FLATTER PATTERN WITH STRONGER FLOW.  THE DIFFERENCE IS \r\nSUBTLE AND THERE IS NO SOLID BASIS YET FOR FAVORING ONE OVER THE \r\nOTHER...YET IT COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD FOR THE \r\nPOTENTIAL IMPACT OF MICHELLE ON SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FALLS \r\nIN BETWEEN THE TWO OPTIONS DISCUSSED ABOVE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 17.9N  83.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N  84.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.6N  84.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N  84.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N  83.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 23.5N  81.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-11-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n \r\nRECON IS FINDING FLIGHT-LEVEL...850 MB...WINDS OF 85 TO 90\r\nKT...WHICH SUPPORTS 75 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND A PAIR OF EYEWALL\r\nDROPS GIVE ABOUT THE SAME VALUE.  HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE IS DOWN TO\r\n967 MB AND THE WINDS SHOULD BE RESPONDING VERY SOON...MAYBE EVEN BY\r\nTHE TIME YOU READ THIS.  MICHELLE IS ON ITS WAY TO MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SHEAR AND \r\nINTERACTION WITH CUBA WILL BE INHIBITING FACTORS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC BUT AVERAGES TO 360/3.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR BASIC FORECAST.  AS\r\nDISCUSSED THIS MORNING...ONE IMPORTANT FACTOR IN HOW CLOSE MICHELLE\r\nCOMES TO SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE\r\nCURRENTLY OVER TEXAS AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE LASTEST VERSIONS OF THE\r\nUKMET AND AVN...WITH THE AVN A SHADE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND\r\nTHE UKMET SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  IN ADDITION...THE NOGAPS IS ALSO IN A\r\nLITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET.  THE GFDL IS THE ONLY\r\nGUIDANCE THAT TAKES THE CENTER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT THIS MODEL\r\nHAS HAD A STRONG WESTWARD BIAS WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 18.2N  84.1W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.8N  84.3W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.7N  84.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N  84.1W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 24.5N  79.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-11-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n \r\nRECON DATA INDICATE THAT MICHELLE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING.  FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS PEAKED AT 108 KNOTS AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO\r\n957 MB ABOUT 2330Z.  SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0\r\nAND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  THIS MEANS THAT WINDS COULD BE AS HIGH\r\nAS 100 TO 115 KNOTS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME UNTIL A RECON MEASURES THE WINDS IN A FEW HOURS.  CONDITIONS\r\nARE FAVORABLE FOR MICHELLE TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES CUBA...BUT SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR.  BY THEN...MICHELLE WILL\r\nLIKELY BE OVER THE BAHAMAS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  BECAUSE THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...MICHELLE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...AN AREA WHERE\r\nHISTORICALLY THE STORM SURGE HAS BEEN VERY HIGH.\r\n\r\nTHEREAFTER...MICHELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TRACK...WHICH IS POSSIBLE...WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL AVN MODEL WHICH\r\nHAS BEEN OUTSTANDING THIS SEASON.  THE RELIABLE GFDL MODEL KEEPS THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WHICH IS A MORE DANGEROUS\r\nSCENARIO FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 18.8N  84.0W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.7N  84.2W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  84.0W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  83.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  82.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N  75.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-11-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT NOV 03 2001\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nMICHELLE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED\r\nTO 940 MB...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE BEEN AS HIGH\r\nAS 121 KT.  WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ON DROPSONDES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH\r\nAS 138 KT.  WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT\r\nFROM AFWA AND 115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 110 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC.  THE EYE WOBBLED\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NIGHT...AND DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THERE HAS\r\nBEEN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/4 USING\r\nA 24 HR MOTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF THE MICHELLE.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD DEVELOP OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.  NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FIRST MOVING MICHELLE SLOWLY\r\nTO THE NORTH...THEN TURNING IT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST.\r\nMOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA\r\nAND THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET AND AVN ARE BOTH\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND GFDN\r\nCONTINUE TO TAKE THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD...CALLING FOR LANDFALL\r\nIN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.  IN VIEW OF THIS...AND THE MORE WESTWARD\r\nPOSITION OF MICHELLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT LIES ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE MAIN\r\nCLUSTER OF GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nHOW STRONG CAN MICHELLE GET?  THE RECON-REPORTED INTENSITY IS BELOW\r\nTHAT OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...SO AS A FIRST GUESS MICHELLE \r\nCOULD PEAK IN THE 115-125 KT RANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL\r\nFOR A 120 KT PEAK IN 12-24 HR.  BEYOND THAT...LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL\r\nSHIFT SOUTHWARD AND EXPOSE MICHELLE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.  THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH WEAKENS THE STORM AFTER\r\n24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THERE\r\nIS A CHANCE THAT MICHELLE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 19.0N  84.4W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.8N  84.4W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N  84.3W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  83.6W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.3N  81.4W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 26.5N  74.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-11-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001\r\n \r\nA RECENT USAF RECON FLIGHT REPORTS 933 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A \r\n124-KNOT GPS DROPSONDE WIND AT 925 MB IN THE EYEWALL.  OTHERWISE \r\nRECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND THE DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER MEAN WIND \r\nDO NOT QUITE SUPPORT 115 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT \r\n115 KNOTS.  WITH AN ESTIMATED 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE \r\nHURRICANE...THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BUT AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS...AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN \r\nTHE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND \r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/03.  THE GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT.  \r\nTHE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72 \r\nHOURS.  THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEP THE CENTER SOUTH OF FLORIDA.  THE NOGAPS \r\nHAS MICHELLE MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR 72 \r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE \r\nMODELS...AND KEEPS THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA.  ONLY A \r\nSLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BRING THE CENTER OVER \r\nSOUTH FLORIDA.  BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN \r\nTHE U.S. WARNINGS...BUT THEY COULD BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD LATER \r\nTONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 19.6N  84.1W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.2N  84.0W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.7N  83.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.1N  81.4W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 24.2N  79.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N  71.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-11-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE DECREASED A LITTLE...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT MICHELLE MAY NOT BE AS INTENSE AS EARLIER TODAY.  IN FACT...THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 944 MB.  HOWEVER...MAX FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWIND AT 700 MB FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 128 KNOTS\r\nAND SURFACE WINDS FROM A DROP OF 115 KNOTS.  SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE VERY\r\nCOMMON WITH INTENSE HURRICANES AND ARE NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nEYEWALL CYCLES...WHICH MICHELLE APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING.\r\nCONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES CUBA.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE\r\nSHOW DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AROUND THE EYE.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW THE UPPER-TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD\r\nOVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nFORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS IS SUPPOSED TO LIFT THE HURRICANE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.  IN FACT...LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT\r\nMICHELLE IS ALREADY MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 5 KNOTS.  MICHELLE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND ITS CORE SHOULD PASSING\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND CROSS MAINLAND CUBA\r\nLATE SUNDAY.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST TOWARD THE BAHAMAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE NCEP AVN GLOBAL MODEL AND DISREGARDS THE GFDL MODEL WHICH\r\nKEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nMICHELLE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS AND BEGIN \r\nTO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 20.0N  83.5W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.3N  82.8W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  81.7W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  79.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N  75.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 32.5N  64.0W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-11-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISRUPTED DUE TO INCREASING \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS MADE A \r\nRETURN DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS WITH A RING OF -75 TO -80C TOPS \r\nSTARTING TO ENCIRCLE THE CLOUD-COVERED EYE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nOF 115 KT IS BASED ON AN EARLIER RECON REPORT OF STEP-FREQUENCY \r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS OF 117 KT. THE NEXT RECON INVEST \r\nFLIGHT WILL BE AROUND 12Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ETSIMATE IS 040/06.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS \r\nTEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO BACK AS INDICATED BY THE NORTHWARD \r\nSPREADING OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA.  \r\nHOWEVER...00Z UPPER-AIR AND G-IV DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE \r\n700 TO 300 MB RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA \r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE. VTHE RESULT IS THAT MICHELLE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nSLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID- AND \r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE POSITION AND BE DEFLECTED SLIGHTLY POLEWARD INTO \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA STRAITS BEFORE THE RIDGE ERODES COMPLETELY IN \r\nABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MICHELLE TO ACCLERATE RAPIDLY \r\nACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A SLIGHT POLEWARD JOG WAS \r\nINDICATED AT 24 HOURS WHEN MICHELLE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE \r\nNORTH COAST OF CUBA. THIS IS DUE TO A POSSIBLE LEESIDE OR INVERTED \r\nTROUGH FORMING ALONG THE NORTH COAST IN RESPONSE TO FAST SOUTHERLY \r\nFLOW COMING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS \r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE \r\nUKMET...AVN...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR...MICHELLE HAS \r\nPROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSTANT UNTIL \r\nLANDFALL...AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND \r\nINTERACTION WITH CUBA AND STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE \r\nAVN AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS \r\nWAS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF \r\nMICHELLE AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. WHILE SUSTAINED \r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY NOT OCCUR...GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE \r\nPOSSIBLE IN STRONG SQUALLS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND UPPER \r\nKEYS LATER TONIGHT OR MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 20.4N  83.1W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 21.6N  82.2W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 23.4N  80.6W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 25.1N  77.9W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 27.5N  73.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 34.0N  62.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-11-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DO NOT SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AS IT HAD 24 HOURS AGO.\r\nA NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF MICHELLE AND THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE IS 950 MB WITH 700 MB MAX WINDS OF 134 KNOTS.\r\nALTHOUGH THIS SUPPORTS 120 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE...THE STEP FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOWS ONLY ABOUT 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. THE\r\nCURRENT LARGE EYE MAY CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL OVER CUBA RESULTING\r\nIN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE RECON AND RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE THAT MICHELLE IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE EASTWARD MOVING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE MICHELLE TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SCENARIO\r\nPROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL BRINGS THE CORE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA BUT THIS MODEL HAS HAD A\r\nWESTWARD BIAS WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nON THIS TRACK...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS PASSING NEAR AND TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE ZAPATA\r\nPENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA LATER TODAY. IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE INTENSE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MISS HAVANA CITY.\r\nMICHELLE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 21.3N  82.1W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 22.7N  80.9W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 24.3N  78.9W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 26.5N  74.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  70.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 35.0N  59.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-11-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2001\r\n \r\nMICHELLE HAS BEEN CLOSELY MONITORED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nAND BY EXCELLENT REPORTS FROM CUBAN RADARS.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN EITHER MOTION OR INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED BY THE PLANE WAS 133 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH\r\nA RECENTLY OBSERVED PRESSURE OF 949 MB.  CAYO LARGO LOCATED SOUTH OF\r\nCENTRAL CUBA...EXPERIENCED THE CALM WINDS OF THE EYE AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 951 MB.\r\n \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE HURICANE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BEYOND 48 HOURS IT SHOULD BECOME A LARGE AND\r\nSTRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nMICHELLE IS ALREADY EMBBEDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nTHE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS CUBA\r\nTONIGHT AND EMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS EARLY MONDAY.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nNCEP AVN GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 22.3N  81.3W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 23.6N  80.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 25.8N  76.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  71.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  65.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 43.0N  53.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-11-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN NOV 04 2001\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT...RADAR OBSERVATIONS...AND SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER \r\nCENTRAL CUBA.  MICHELLE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW CAT. 3 \r\nINTENSITY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT \r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN MUCH EVEN WHEN IT EMERGES OVER \r\nWATER...BECAUSE OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH \r\nWEAKENING IS PREDICTED DUE TO THE MORE HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC \r\nENVIRONMENT...WE STILL THINK THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE CAT. 2 INTENSITY \r\nAS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN MICHELLE AS RAPIDLY AS THE SHIPS \r\nGUIDANCE SINCE WE ARE ASSUMING THAT IT WILL BE CONVERTING INTO A \r\nBAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A DEEP-LAYER \r\nTROUGH THAT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD.  \r\nMICHELLE IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH \r\nAXIS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND ESPECIALLY THE AVN...WHICH HAS DONE AN \r\nOUTSTANDING JOB WITH MICHELLE...TO SAY THE LEAST.\r\n\r\nWITH THE HURRICANE STAYING ON TRACK...THE STATUS OF WARNINGS OVER \r\nSOUTHERN FLORIDA REMAINS UNCHANGED.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE \r\nEXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA OVER SOUTHEAST \r\nFLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 22.9N  80.4W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 24.2N  78.9W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 25.8N  76.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N  72.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N  68.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 35.5N  57.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-11-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LAST REPORT FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT...ALONG WITH RADAR AND \r\nSATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT MICHELLE IS CONTINUING TO \r\nWEAKEN WHILE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS \r\nCONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICNAT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  ALL OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE AVN MODEL...AND MOST OF THE NHC \r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE AGREE ON MICHELLE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE \r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TOWARD \r\nBERMUDA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL \r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO \r\nDIG SOUTHWARD WHILE SHIFTLY STEADILY EASTWARD.  THIS FLOW PATTERN \r\nSHOULD CAUSE MICHELLE TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND \r\nWEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE UKMET-GFDL-NOGAPS \r\nCONSENSUS. THE AVN MODEL...WHICH HAS DONE AN OUTSTANDING JOB WITH \r\nMICHELLE THUS FAR...APPEARS TO WEAKEN AND SPLIT THE SYSTEM INTO TWO \r\nSEPARATE ENTITIES AND TAKES THE CYCLONE DUE EAST AFTER PASSING OVER\r\nANDROS ISLAND. HOWEVER...THE AVN FORECAST SEEMS UNREASONABLE AT THIS \r\nTIME AND LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THIS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. \r\nTHE GFDL ACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHENS MICHELLE TO 100 KT IN 24 HOURS... \r\nBUT THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nACROSS THE CYCLONE. INSTEAD...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS \r\nFOLLOWED...EXCEPT THAT IT DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 60 HOURS. WE \r\nANTICIPATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR INSTEAD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 23.5N  79.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 24.9N  77.6W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 26.5N  74.1W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  70.1W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 30.2N  65.4W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 38.5N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-11-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001\r\n \r\nBASED ON A USAF RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 83 KNOTS AND A SHIP \r\nREPORT OF 87 KNOTS IN THE BAHAMAS...THE 12Z WIND SPEED IS 80 KNOTS \r\nAND THE 15Z WIND SPEED IN 75 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 51 \r\nKNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL ANALYSIS AND THE \r\nSURFACE LOW IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS \r\nIS A SITUATION CALLING FOR WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE STRONG WINDS \r\nARE PERSISTING.\r\n\r\nTHE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE SHEARED LOW LEVEL CENTER MOVING \r\nSLOWLY EASTWARD.  THE OTHER MODELS SHOW MICHELLE ACCELERATING \r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND MERGING WITH OTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOWS IN THE NEXT \r\n72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE \r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING A SLIGHT WEIGHT TO THE AVIATION MODEL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 24.8N  77.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 25.9N  75.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N  72.1W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 28.0N  68.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 30.0N  64.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  57.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-11-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/18. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO \r\nREMAINS THE SAME.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCURCULATION EASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATE \r\nTHE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC TO COMBINE WITH A \r\nSTRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS \r\nTOWARD THE NORTHERN MODELS BUT IS INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE \r\nAVIATION MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS DECREASING VERY SLOWLY EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS \r\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CONVECTION AND WINDS HAVE SPREAD OUT \r\nAS MICHELLE BEGINS TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE \r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW WEAKENING AS EXTRATROPICAL \r\nENERGY MAY KEEP THE WIND SPEEDS UP DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 25.9N  75.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 27.2N  72.8W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.3N  68.9W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.5N  64.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  60.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  52.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-11-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH MICHELLE DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY TROPICAL ON SATELLITE \r\nIMAGES AT THIS TIME...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND 99 KNOTS AT THE \r\n850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL.  SINCE THE SYSTEM LACKS DEEP CONVECTION \r\nANYWHERE NEAR ITS CENTER...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL TO \r\nSURFACE REDUCTION IS SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN NORMAL AND ASSIGN A \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS.  THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED AS AN \r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...RATHER THAN ACTUAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  WITH ITS EXTREMELY BROAD WIND FIELD...AND THE CLOUD \r\nPATTERN RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL WAVE...MICHELLE HAS ALREADY \r\nTAKEN ON SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT \r\nDATA SHOWED A 9 DEG C TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE CENTER AT 700 MB.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING ALL TROPICAL \r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INVOLVED \r\nWITH THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...060/18...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM BEFORE.  \r\nMICHELLE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP \r\nFORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES WITH THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE 500 MB \r\nTROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND \r\nNOGAPS FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 26.5N  73.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N  70.7W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N  66.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  61.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 33.5N  56.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 39.0N  47.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":31,"Date":"2001-11-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2001\r\n \r\nMICHELLE IS LOOKING LESS LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MORE LIKE AN \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE \r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT AT 06/0520Z FOUND PEAK WINDS OF 106 KT IN THE \r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT...SURROUNDED BY A LONG STRETCH OF 100+ KT WINDS. \r\nMICHELLE ALSO HAS MAINTAINED A WARM-CORE STRUCTURE...SO IT IS BEING \r\nKEPT AS A HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE \r\nOBSERVED IN STRATIFORM CLOUDS OR IN THE CLEAR...A REDUCTION FACTOR \r\nOF 70 PERCENT WAS USED...INSTEAD OF THE USUAL 90 PERCENT. THE NEXT \r\nRECON FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/18.  MICHELLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...SO \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED \r\nWITH THE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS GETTING STRETCHED \r\nOUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MICHELLE MOVING IN A \r\nGENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION...LIKE THE AVN IS INDICATING... \r\nRATHER THAN LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH LIKE THE REST OF \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST \r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REMAINS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE AVN MODEL...WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE \r\nSUITE.\r\n\r\nDRY AIR IS PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS \r\nHAS DISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER.  AS A RESULT...MICHELLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EVEN THOUGH MICHELLE IS LOOKING \r\nMORE FRONTAL-LIKE...BAROCLINIC EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO \r\nKEEP THE INTENSITY UP LONGER THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH SHEARED AND \r\nCONVECTION-FREE TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST INCREASED OUT TO 120 \r\nNM...WHILE IT REMAINED CLOSE IN AT AROUND 45 NM TO THE NORTHWEST. \r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ALSO EXTENDED OUTWARD MORE THAN 100 NM IN ALL \r\nDIRECTIONS.  THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND WERE BASED \r\nON DIFFERENT FLIGHT-LEVEL REDUCTION FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITHIN AND \r\nOUTSIDE OF CONVECTION FOR THE VARIOUS QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 27.2N  71.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  68.5W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.6N  63.6W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 31.9N  58.7W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  54.2W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 40.0N  44.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":32,"Date":"2001-11-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2001\r\n \r\nMICHELLE LOOKS LIKE A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nAND IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BECAUSE MICHELLE\r\nWAS A STRONG HURRICANE AND WINDS TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS.  THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY IF SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nAND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE IT IS ONE.  MOST\r\nLIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW AS INDICATED BY THE AVN GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION ON SATELLITE APPEARS TO BE MOVING 065/21.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 27.5N  68.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  65.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 30.5N  57.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  50.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 40.0N  40.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michelle","Adv":33,"Date":"2001-11-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MICHELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 06 2001\r\n \r\nMICHELLE IS A TENACIOUS HURRICANE.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL\r\nFOUND A WARM CENTER WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB AND WINDS OF\r\n80 KNOTS AT 700 MB AT 1800 UTC.  THIS IS SURPRISING GIVEN THE POOR\r\nPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER...THE PLANE\r\nREPORTED THAT COLD AIR WAS RAPIDLY INTRUDING THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nCENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  MICHELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON MICHELLE AND FURTHER INFORMATION \r\nWILL BE CONTAINED IN THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE \r\nTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 29.0N  65.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  60.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 33.5N  53.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 40.0N  45.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Noel","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-11-05 16:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001\r\n \r\nSHIP WRYG REPORTED 65 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW \r\nABOUT 60 NM FROM THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM HAS A BROKEN RING OF \r\nCONVECTION REASONABLY NEAR THE CENTER...AND HAS A WEAK MID-LEVEL \r\nWARM SIGNATURE IN THE MOST RECENT AMSU DATA FROM THE CIMSS WEB PAGE. \r\nON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS CONSIDERED A HURRICANE AND ADVISORIES \r\nARE INITIATED. \r\n\r\nNOEL IS MOVING AT 360/10 AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW \r\nCURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.  NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS \r\nGENERAL PATH WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nNOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET ABSORBED BY THIS EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT \r\nLIKELY AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL ITSELF AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER \r\nMUCH COLDER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AVN AND \r\nUKMET SOLUTIONS...AND INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM COULD PASS CLOSE \r\nENOUGH TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS \r\nTHERE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1600Z 38.5N  50.4W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 40.0N  50.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 44.0N  51.0W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 51.0N  50.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Noel","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-11-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH UNDERESTIMATED THE INTENSITY OF \r\nNOEL THIS MORNING...REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.  THE CONVECTION...WHICH \r\nWAS REASONABLY SYMMETRIC EARLIER...IS NOW LIMITED LARGELY TO THE \r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  I WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND HOLD NOEL AS A \r\nHURRICANE FOR NOW BUT SUSPECT THAT IT IS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL \r\nSTORM.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING AND NOEL WILL BE MOVING OVER \r\nCOLD WATER SOON SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. \r\n \r\nNOEL IS MOVING AT 360/9 AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW\r\nCURRENTLY OVER NEW ENGLAND.  NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL PATH WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STRENGTHENS SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nBOTH THE AVN AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS LOSE NOEL WITHIN 24 HOURS AS \r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS FOCUSSED ELSEWHERE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED \r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AND WITH THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE \r\nMICHELLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE AVN AND \r\nUKMET SOLUTIONS...AND PROBABLY HANGS ON TO A CIRCULATION LONGER THAN \r\nTHE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LIKELY TO BE LITTLE WIND ON THE WEST SIDE OF NOEL AS IT \r\nPASSES NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 39.3N  50.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 40.8N  50.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 46.0N  50.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 51.5N  51.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-11-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON NOV 05 2001\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY IS \r\nREDUCED TO 60 KNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS NEARING COLD WATER SO FURTHER \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.  IN FACT...AS NOTED EARLIER...NOEL COULD BE \r\nGONE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE SINCE THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS IT \r\nBECOMING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH...AND THUS THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\nTHIS IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE BUT IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND GFDL TRACKS.  NOEL SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE...FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS \r\nBEEN EXPANDED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 40.4N  49.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 43.0N  49.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 47.5N  48.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 53.0N  48.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-11-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2001\r\n \r\nNOEL IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS INDICATED BY THE \r\nLACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO VARY SIGNIFICANTLY AND RANGE FROM 30 KT \r\nFROM TAFB TO 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS DECREASED \r\nTO 55 KT BASED ON A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH IS \r\nSUPPORTED BY SEVERAL NEARBY SHIPS INDICATING A LARGE RADIUS OF 30 TO \r\n40 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/17. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE \r\nNORTHWARD AS IS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY \r\nWINDS AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS \r\nSOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA AND EVENTUALLY CAPTURE NOEL NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND \r\nIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nNOEL IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ALL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AS \r\nIT MOVES OVER COLD SSTS OF LESS THAN 20C.  HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC \r\nEFFECTS FROM THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP \r\nTHE SYSTEM NEAR STORM STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 42.3N  49.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 45.2N  48.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 50.2N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-11-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE NOV 06 2001\r\n \r\nNOEL NO LONGER HAS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  \r\nTHE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CLOSE \r\nTO OPENING UP ON THE WEST SIDE...AND NOEL WILL SOON BECOME ABSORBED \r\nBY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM TO ITS WEST.  THEREFORE THIS IS \r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY...AND FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE \r\nPROVIDED IN NWS HIGH SEAS PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 44.0N  48.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 47.5N  47.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-11-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2001\r\n \r\nA NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nDEVELOPED A CORE OF STRONG WINDS.  THIS IS BASED ON A MESSAGE\r\nCONCERNING A SHIP THAT WENT THROUGH A STORM CENTER AT 29.5 NORTH AND\r\n50.5 WEST...LOWEST PRESSURE 989 MB AND \"LOTS OF DAMAGE\"  THE TIME OF\r\nTHE EVENT OR THE HIGHEST WINDS WERE NOT GIVEN.  CURRENTLY THERE IS\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER AS WELL AS GALE\r\nFORCE WINDS EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF MILES TO THE NORTH.  SO WHAT WE\r\nHAVE HERE IS A SMALL TROPICAL-LIKE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A HUGE\r\nNON-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE WINDS ARE STRONG NEAR THE CENTER BASED\r\nON THE SHIP REPORT...BUT ARE ALSO STRONG FOR HUNDREDS OF MILES TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  SO I AM CALLING THE SYSTEM A 50-KNOT SUBTROPICAL\r\nSTORM...A NON FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMPRISING INITIALLY\r\nBAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS OVER SUBTROPICAL WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nPATTERN AND FORECASTS A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE PURPOSE OF THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS TO ADVISE SHIPS AT SEA THAT\r\nTHERE COULD BE STRONG WINDS CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER AS\r\nWELL AS EXTENDING FAR TO THE NORTH.  I DO NOT KNOW HOW LONG THE\r\nCENTRAL FEATURE WILL PERSIST.  IF IT IS SHEARED AWAY...AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL HAS 27 KNOTS OF SHEAR INCREASING TO 32 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS...\r\nTHEN THESE SUBTROPICAL ADVISORIES WILL BE TERMINATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 30.5N  49.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  49.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 32.0N  50.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 33.0N  50.9W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 33.8N  52.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  54.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-11-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM AST SAT NOV 24 2001\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO PRESENTS A CLASSICAL HYBRID APPEARANCE\r\nTHIS EVENING.  ON THE LARGER SCALE...THE SYSTEM SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER BRANCHING OUT INTO A WARM FROM AND COLD\r\nFROM NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  COLD-AIR STRATUS IS PRESENT\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED AND WARM FRONTS BUT IS NOT CURRENTLY\r\nWRAPPING INTO THE CENTER.  ON THE SMALLER SCALE...THE SYSTEM LOOKS\r\nMORE TROPICAL...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING AND EVIDENCE\r\nOF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AT UPPER LEVELS.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN 50 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PREVIOUS SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TRICKY...AS THE CENTER MAY BE\r\nPERFORMING A LOOP INSIDE THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION.  THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/9.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THE STORM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS AS THE SYSTEM CUTS OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND DEEP-\r\nLAYER RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE RIDGE IS ALREADY STARTING TO BUILD.  NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE INPUT INITIAL\r\nMOTION.  BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  IF THE CURRENT MOTION IS PART OF A LOOP...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED EVEN FURTHER TO THE WEST IN SUBSEQUENT\r\nPACKAGES.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE TRICKY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SEEM\r\nTO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE OUTER ENVELOPE OF THE STORM...AND\r\nTHEY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM WILL CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THUS...THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN SOMETHING\r\nCLOSE TO ITS CURRENT INTENSITY EVEN IF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION\r\nFIZZLES AND THE CYCLONE AGAIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  THIS SCENARIO\r\nIS THE ONE REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE INNER CORE REMAINS ISOLATED FROM COLD AIR AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE AND SHIPS MODELS...THEN IT\r\nCOULD INTENSIFY INDEPENDENTLY OF THE REST OF THE CYCLONE AND MIGHT\r\nEVEN COMPLETE THE TRANSFORMATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE.\r\nTHIS SCENARIO WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT\r\nTHIS TIME...BUT THE STORM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSIGNS OF TROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 31.5N  50.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  51.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  52.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 32.8N  54.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  55.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  57.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-11-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2001\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE TROPICAL AND LESS \r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION NEAR \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD \r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN ADDITION...TWO INTERLOCKING BANDS OF \r\nCONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DISTINCT AROUND THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS \r\nFAIR TO THE NORTH AND WEAK TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 \r\nKT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 50 \r\nKT...45 KT...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14.  SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO HAS \r\nACCELERATED MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE \r\nLARGE SURFACE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAVE STARTED BUILDING \r\nEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES \r\nTHE POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER THE U.S. GREAT LAKES REGION \r\nLIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH IS ACTING TO THE AMPLIFY THE \r\nDOWNSTREAM RIDGING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN IS \r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD \r\nACT TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION. ALMOST \r\nALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD \r\nTRACK...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY 36 TO 48 \r\nHOURS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD EVEN STALL DURING THAT \r\nTIME PERIOD AND MOVE ERRATICALLY.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE \r\nGUIDANCE AGREE ON KEEPING THE STORM SYSTEM WELL TO THE EAST OF \r\nBERMUDA THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH \r\nOR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nAVN-GFDL-UKMET MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE IMPROVING SATELLITE SIGNATURE...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE \r\nTHAT SUBTROPICAL STORM TWO COULD TRANSITION OVER COMPLETELY TO A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\nIN FACT...BY 48 HOURS...THE AVN MODEL DECREASES THE SHEAR TO LESS \r\nTHAN 10 KT.  AS SUCH...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 \r\nHOURS...EVEN THOUGH SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN 24C.  \r\nHOWEVER...THE UNSUALLY COLD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS \r\nPROVIDING THE NECESSARY INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO \r\nOCCUR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ACTUALLY TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER \r\nWARMER SSTS...SO SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER.  GIVEN \r\nTHE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST...THIS SYSTEM COULD EVEN \r\nREACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED AFTER 36 HOURS TO REFLECT THE EXPECTED \r\nSHRINKING OF THE OUTER WIND FIELD OWING TO THE WEAKENING SURFACE \r\nHIGH TO THE NORTH...AND CONTRACTION OF THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD \r\nWHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE TROPICAL-LIKE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 32.0N  52.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 32.3N  53.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 32.5N  54.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 32.5N  55.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 32.4N  56.7W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 32.2N  58.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-11-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 25 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM CONSISTS OF TWO\r\nINNER-LOCKING BANDS.  THIS WARM CORE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE\r\nSEPARATING FROM THE OUTER NON-SYMMETRIC BAND TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND EAST WHICH CONSTITUTES THE NON-TROPICAL PART OF THE STORM.  THE\r\nCLASSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL...UNTIL AND IF A CLEAR \r\nDISTINCTION CAN BE MADE BETWEEN THE 34 KNOT WIND RADII OF THE INNER \r\nCORE AND THE NON TROPICAL WEATHER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13 BASED ON PAST 18 HOURS.  A SHORTER \r\nPERIOD MOTION MIGHT BE FASTER.  THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW \r\nMOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH DISAGREEMENT IN DIRECTION.  A \r\nSLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND SPEED TO 75 TO 80 KNOTS \r\nWHILE THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND \r\nSPEED.  THE OFF FORECAST TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS IS ALSO A CONSENSUS \r\nOF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII ARE REDUCED TO A SMALL SYMMETRIC SHAPE IN 24 HOURS TO \r\nREFLECT THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THE NON-TROPICAL PORTION OF THE WIND \r\nFIELD WILL SEPARATE OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 31.8N  53.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.8N  55.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  56.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 32.3N  57.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 32.2N  58.3W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 32.0N  59.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Two","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-11-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CORE OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nOF CONVECTION...SYMMETRY...AND WARM TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.  THE CORE\r\nCONVECTION IS ALSO SEPARATED FROM THE NON-TROPICAL WEATHER TO THE\r\nEAST.  BUT AS A  PRACTICAL MATTER...THE 34- AND 50-KNOT WIND RADII\r\nEXTEND SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTH WITHOUT CLEAR EVIDENCE OF\r\nSEPARATION.  SO THE CLASSIFICATION WILL REMAIN SUBTROPICAL FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE WIND RADII FORECAST SHOWS A SMALL SYMMETRIC WIND \r\nFIELD AT 24 HOURS.  THIS ASSUMES THAT THE CORE WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nSEPARATE FROM THE STRONG WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/14 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION.\r\nTHIS IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD THAN EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE GFDL...AVN AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nFOLLOWED BY RESUMING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING OVE THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.  THE AVN ACTUALLY EXECUTES AN ANTICYLONIC LOOP.  BUT ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS ARE SLOW AS THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CUT OFF FROM\r\nTHE WESTERLIES FOR MANY DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SLOW \r\nEXCEPT FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AND SHOWS THIS CHANGE IN DIRECTION BUT \r\nWITH LESS AMPLITUDE THAN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIP WCOB WAS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER AT 18Z AND REPORTED 55\r\nKNOTS...990 MB...AND 33 FT SEAS.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60\r\nKNOTS.  BEING CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES ALSO MEANS MINIMAL\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND THE POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS GO TO\r\n75 KNOTS.  THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY TREND IN THE CONVECTION AT\r\nPRESENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 30.7N  55.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 30.5N  57.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 30.6N  58.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.8N  59.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 30.7N  59.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.3N  60.3W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Two","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-11-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN NOV 25 2001\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE \r\nCYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EVEN THOUGH MICROWAVE DATA \r\nINDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE...DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT \r\nBEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE.  ALSO...THE AREA OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...PRESUMABLY ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER \r\nAIR...SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME BAROCLINICITY IN THE ENVIRONMENT.  \r\nQUIKSCAT AND SHIP DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO BE \r\nVERY LARGE OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS \r\nRELATIVELY WEAK AND THE SST IS ABOUT 25 DEG C.  THEREFORE THERE IS \r\nSOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN...AND BECOME MORE \r\nTROPICAL IN NATURE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME \r\nSEPARATED FROM THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO ITS NORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS \r\nOR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  SINCE THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN CUT OFF FROM THE \r\nSTRONGER STEERING WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE \r\nQUITE SLOWLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK \r\nFORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GENERAL AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WCOB...WHICH HAS BEEN NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...HAVE BEEN USED TO ADJUST THE CENTRAL \r\nPRESSURE DOWNWARD. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 30.0N  55.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 30.0N  56.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 30.2N  56.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 30.5N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 30.2N  58.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  59.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Two","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-11-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON NOV 26 2001\r\n \r\nON THE LARGE SCALE THINGS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE AS THE WIND FIELD\r\nCONTINUES TO RESEMBLE THAT OF A HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WHICH HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE\r\nATTEMPTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EYE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 60 KT BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF 55 TO 65 KT AND THE\r\nEARLIER SHIP REPORT OF 55 KT NEAR THE CENTER.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS RELATIVELY WEAK THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW AWAY FROM\r\nTHE CENTER...AND GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE MARGINAL...NO LARGE CHANGES\r\nIN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED.  STILL...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT\r\nEYE FEATURE WOULD LIKELY SIGNAL THE TRANSITION TO A HURRICANE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE\r\nWIND RADII CONTINUE TO BE FORECAST TO SHRINK SUBSTANTIALLY.  THIS\r\nASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS EXPECTED AND\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE SEPARATES FROM THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS TO ITS\r\nNORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES IN A LIGHT\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AT ALL\r\nLEVELS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE IS VERY DIVERSE.  THE AVIATION AND UKMET GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW ONLY A SLOW MEANDERING TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD AT\r\nINCREASING SPEED.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE CENTER\r\nWEAKENS.  THE GFDL TRACK IS AN APPARENT RESPONSE TO THIS...BUT IT IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE WHETHER THE CONVECTION WILL BE VIGOROUS ENOUGH TO ALLOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO RESPOND TO THIS UPPER-LEVEL STEERING INFLUENCE.  \r\nTOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nATLANTIC IS ENHANCED AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND \r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 30.2N  55.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 30.3N  55.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 30.5N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 30.5N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 30.5N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 30.5N  57.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-11-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM AST MON NOV 26 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL\r\nSTORM TWO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA ARE NOW USING THE DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE SYSTEM RATHER THAN\r\nTHE HEBERT-POTEAT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE SYSTEM.  ON THIS BASIS...\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM TWO IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OLGA WITH 60 KT\r\nWINDS.  SHIP REPORTS ALONG WITH QUICKSCAT AND SSM/I DATA INDICATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE STILL RETAINS A LARGE WIND FIELD SOMEWHAT CHARACTERISTIC\r\nOF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD IS NOT AS LARGE\r\nAS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/6.  THE OVERALL TRACK OF THE CENTER\r\nOF OLGA SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS BEEN LOOPING AROUND INSIDE THE LARGE\r\nCYCLONIC ENVELOPE AS THE ENVELOPE MOVES WESTWARD.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THE ENVELOPE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR PERHAPS \r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...SO THE MOST LIKELY\r\nTRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS A CONTINUATION OF THE ERRATIC GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION SEEN FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH TO\r\nREFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION AND POSITION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE STORM...SO A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE\r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO RECURVE OLGA INTO THE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS OLGA IS FORMING AN EYE...AND\r\nSHOULD THAT PERSIST IT WOULD LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE\r\nON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  THE REST OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT\r\nTRICKIER.  THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH THE STORM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN MAY MOVE OFF TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND ALLOW STRONG SHEAR TO DEVELOP BY 36-48 HR.  THE SHIPS\r\nAND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLING FOR OLGA TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nAND THEN WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OLGA\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST IF THE CURRENTLY FORMING EYE\r\nPERSISTS FOR 12-24 HR.\r\n\r\nSHIP REPORTS INDICATE A VERY LARGE FIELD OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH OLGA.  SWELLS FROM THE STORM ARE REACHING BERMUDA\r\nAND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THE SWELLS WILL REACH THE\r\nISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...AND\r\nREACH THE BAHAMAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 30.7N  56.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 31.0N  56.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 31.2N  56.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 31.3N  57.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 31.5N  57.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 31.5N  59.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-11-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON NOV 26 2001\r\n\r\nAFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES AN INTERMITTENT EYE AT THE\r\nCENTER OF OGLA...WHICH AS OF THIS WRITING IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nDEFINED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.  ON THIS BASIS...OLGA IS UPGRADED TO\r\nA 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nOLGA HAS TURNED MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 350/5...AND THE SORT-TERM MOTION MAY \r\nEVEN BE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT.  THIS MOTION IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE\r\nTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT JUST OFFSHORE OF THE \r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES....WHICH HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NOT THAT STRONG...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT\r\nSHOULD PASS TO THE NORTH OF OLGA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS MOVE OLGA\r\nNORTHWARD FOR 12-18 HR IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...THEN THEY TURN\r\nIT SOUTHWARD AND EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36-48 HR.  THIS LOOKS\r\nREASONABLE IN LIGHT OF THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  HOWEVER...\r\nSEVERAL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...\r\nCONTINUE MOVING OLGA TO THE NORTH FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE\r\nEAST.  THIS SCENARIO COULD HAPPEN IF OLGA'S INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nCONTINUES FOR MORE THAN ABOUT 24 HR OR IS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.  GUIDANCE DIVERGENCE OF THIS MAGNITUDE INDICATES A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE FORECAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THIS\r\nSYSTEM FAIRLY WELL...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE\r\nTOWARD THEM THAN TOWARD THE NORTHEASTWARD MODELS.  THE FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THIS TURN IS NEITHER AS FAR SOUTH\r\nOR AS FAST AS THOSE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nOLGA IS CURRENTLY OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THIS\r\nIS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nBIGGEST QUESTION FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE EVOLUTION OF\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE STORM AND HOW MUCH SHEAR WILL\r\nTHUS IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION AND THE LOCATION OF THE MOST FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT GIVING OBVIOUS CLUES\r\nJUST YET AS TO WHICH ONE IS RIGHT. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL FOLLOW THE TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH ASSUMES\r\nTHAT OLGA WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nTHROUGH 48 HR.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OUTER WIND FIELD IS CONTRACTING...SHIP REPORTS\r\nCONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY LARGE FIELD OF 12 FT OR GREATER SEAS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH OLGA.  SWELLS FROM THE STORM ARE REACHING BERMUDA\r\nAND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THE SWELLS WILL REACH THE\r\nBAHAMAS AND THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY OR \r\nTONIGHT...AND REACH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 31.5N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 32.0N  56.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 32.3N  56.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 32.3N  56.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 32.2N  57.3W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 31.5N  58.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-11-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON NOV 26 2001\r\n\r\nOLGA HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER-\r\nDEFINED AND IT IS EMBEDDED IN A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL...ALBEIT\r\nSMALL...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST HAS NOW BECOME APPARENT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5...WHICH\r\nCORRESPONDS TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 75 KNOTS.  THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH STRONGER OLGA MIGHT GET.  AT\r\nTHE MOMENT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW...BUT THE SST IS ONLY 23-24 DEG\r\nC.  THE LATTER VALUE SEEMS A BIT TOO COOL FOR MUCH MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nOLGA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES \r\nTHAT THIS MOTION IS NOT LIKELY TO PERSIST.  THERE IS...HOWEVER... \r\nGREAT DIVERSITY IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM \r\nBEING STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WHEREAS THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A NET SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  THE GFDL SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM REALISTIC SINCE OLGA DOES \r\nNOT APPEAR TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW...BUT \r\nRATHER WITHIN A BROADER-SCALE CYCLONE THAT IS CUT OFF FROM THE \r\nWESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE GLOBAL MODEL \r\nSOLUTIONS AND CALLS FOR A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT...TURING THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST \r\nFLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 32.4N  56.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 32.7N  56.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 32.7N  56.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 32.5N  57.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 32.2N  57.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  58.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-11-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS SYMMETRIC AS\r\nIT WAS A FEW HOURS AGO.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nCORRESPOND TO AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 75 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WITH THE\r\nCOOLISH WATER TEMPERATURES AND A PRESUMABLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER\r\nTHESE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGH.  THERE IS A\r\nCONSIDERABLY-IMPROVED OUTFLOW PATTERN NOW COMPARED TO THIS TIME\r\nYESTERDAY...WHEN THE UPPER WIND STRUCTURE WAS DECIDEDLY SUBTROPICAL.\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS BEEN MEANDERING AND IS CURRENTLY EXECUTING A CYCLONIC LOOP\r\nWITH A SEPARATE UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY TO ITS\r\nSOUTHEAST.  AS THESE TWO FEATURES INTERACT I EXPECT A SHORT-TERM\r\nMOTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW NET EASTWARD DRIFT\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT I AM NOT SOLD ON THE INITIALIZATION\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE.  NEITHER THE AVN NOR THE UKMET SEEMS TO BE\r\nCAPTURING THE FULL EXTENT OF THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE VISIBLE IN THE WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTHEREFORE IS SOMEWHAT WEST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND CALLS FOR LITTLE NET MOTION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS\r\nHEIGHTS RISE NORTHWEST OF OLGA IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S.\r\n\r\nTHE SSTS WOULD ARGUE THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH MORE UPSIDE TO\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF OLGA...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN OLGA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD...INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD MITIGATE\r\nAGAINST INCREASING SSTS.  CLIMATOLOGICALLY..SOUTHWARD-MOVING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES USUALLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 32.5N  57.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  57.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 32.5N  57.5W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 32.5N  57.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 29.5N  59.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-11-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE NOV 27 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...TYPICAL OF A HURRICANE.  THERE IS A RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...A DISTINCT CURVED BAND AND GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW.  T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CORRESPONDING TO\r\nABOUT 75 KNOTS.  THE OCEAN IS COOL...BUT ACCORDING THE THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A\r\nPOSITIVE CONTRIBUTION TOWARD INTENSIFICATION.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW.  THEREFORE...OLGA HAS A CHANCE OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING\r\nBEGINS.  CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SOUTHWARD-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES\r\nUSUALLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nOLGA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR LOOPING WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING FLOW.  AT THIS TIME IS ON A SOUTHEASTWARD TREND.  BECAUSE\r\nTHIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE PATTERN\r\nRESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF A RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH...WOULD STEER OLGA TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN...NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nHIGH SWELLS ARE EXTENDING OUTWARD AND ARE REACHING SOME OF THE NORTH \r\nCOAST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 31.5N  57.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 31.5N  57.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 31.5N  57.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  57.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 31.0N  57.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 29.5N  58.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-11-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2001\r\n\r\nOLGA REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE \r\nEYE...PLUS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION...HAVE BECOME MORE DISTINCT\r\nDURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP \r\nSLIGHTLY TO 80 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF T4.5...77 KT...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE IMPROVED INNER- \r\nCORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS CONFINED PRIMARILY \r\nTO THE NORTH...BUT HAS BEEN IMPROVING TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10.  HOWEVER...OLGA HAS BEEN\r\nMAKING A RATHER LARGE CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS.  THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW/TROUGH PATTERN.  A SERIES OF SHARP VORTICITY CENTERS HAVE BEEN\r\nTRACKING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF OLGA...WHICH\r\nHAS RESULTED IN BINARY INTERACTION MOTION.  THE LATEST AND POSSIBLY\r\nLAST STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF OLGA\r\nAND HAS BEEN HELPING TO LIFT THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS.  OLGA AND THE VORTICITY CENTER SHOULD SEPARATE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR OLGA TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nGRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\nTHE STRONG DEVELOPING WINTER STORM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHICH\r\nSHOULD HELP TO BUILD THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE OLGA.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE SAME GENERAL\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND TAKE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALBEIT AT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT\r\nFORWARD SPEEDS.  NOGAPS AND THE UKMET ARE THE FASTEST WHILE THE GFDL\r\nAND AVN ARE THE SLOWEST OF THE MODELS.  THE AVN-GFDL SOLUTION USES A\r\nDEEPER LAYER STEERING FLOW...WHEREAS THE WEAKER UKMET-NOGAPS\r\nSOLUTIONS ALLOW FOR A SHALLOW SYSTEM TO BE STEERED RAPIDLY WESTWARD\r\nBY STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE SLOWER AVN-GFDL CONSENSUS SINCE THOSE TWO MODELS DO\r\nNOT WEAKEN OLGA AS QUICKLY AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY GIVEN THE COLD SSTS AND \r\nTHE COLD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING OLGA. THERE IS \r\nNOT MUCH INTENSITY GUIDANCE AVAILABLE FOR THESE \"COLD\" TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONES.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WEAKENS OLGA STEADILY THROUGH \r\nTHE PERIOD AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 TO \r\n36 HOURS AND DOWN TO 50 KT IN 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN NEGATIVE \r\nCONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN THE MODEL IS THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS.  \r\nALTHOUGH OLGA IS CURRENTLY OVER SUB-24C SSTS...THE SURROUNDING \r\nENVIRONMENT IS ALSO MUCH COLDER THAN THE TYPICAL TROPICAL \r\nATMOSPHERE.  SINCE THERE IS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND LOW \r\nSHEAR...LESS THAN 15 KT...FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...OLGA \r\nSHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT \r\nFEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW WEAKENING TO \r\nBEGIN BY 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE \r\nNORTH MAY GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MOST OF THE MAJOR LAND AREAS \r\nAND ISLANDS FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST TO THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 32.3N  55.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 33.1N  55.9W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  56.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 30.9N  56.9W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  57.4W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 28.5N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-11-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE NOV 27 2001\r\n\r\nINFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED \r\nA BIT...HOWEVER THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 \r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW DOES NOT LOOK AS \r\nIMPRESSIVE AS 24 HOURS AGO...HOWEVER THE SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY LOW.  \r\nALTHOUGH OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY WARM...COOL AIR IN THE \r\nUPPER TROPOSPHERE IS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO INSTABILITY AND THE \r\nMAINTENANCE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS \r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  HOWEVER AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WOULD LIKELY BRING ABOUT A MORE RADID DECREASE IN \r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nAFTER EXECUTING A CYCLONIC LOOP...OLGA IS MEANDERING...AND \r\nESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A \r\nLARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS PRETTY MUCH \r\nISOLATED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES.  THIS LARGER CIRCULATION \r\nIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS...AND BRING OLGA WITH IT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS \r\nTHE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COMMENCING IN A DAY OR SO.  THIS IS A \r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT SLOWER THAN \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST \r\nFLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 32.3N  55.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 32.3N  55.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 32.0N  56.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 31.0N  57.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 30.0N  58.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 28.5N  60.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-11-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED NOV 28 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5...\r\nCORRESPONDING TO 77 KT.  THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE A\r\nLITTLE LOWER AT T4.3...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS\r\nDETERIORATED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  OLGA IS CURRENTLY IN\r\nA LOW-SHEAR UPPER ENVIRONMENT WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS BROAD UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A\r\nSHARP AND ELONGATED TROUGH THAT SHOULD EXPOSE THE HURRICANE TO\r\nINCREASING SHEAR WITHIN 36 HOURS.  BOTH THE UKMET AND AVIATION\r\nMODELS WEAKEN OLGA TO A DEPRESSION OR LESS WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS A 55 KT STORM BY 72 HOURS...BUT I BELIEVE IT\r\nDOES NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SHEAR...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS\r\nOLGA DOWN TO 30 KT.  ALTHOUGH OLGAS OVERALL CIRCULATION IS STILL\r\nLARGE...THE AREA COVERED BY STRONG WINDS IS RATHER SMALL...SO THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS COULD DROP QUICKLY ONCE THE INNER CORE BEGINS TO\r\nCOLLAPSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS NOT AS RAPID AS THE GLOBAL MODELS OR\r\nGFDL.\r\n\r\nAFTER COMPLETING A RELATIVELY LARGE CYCLONIC LOOP THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nOLGA IS NOW EXECUTING A SECOND...MUCH TIGHTER LOOP.  THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE BINARY INTERACTIONS WITH VORTICITY CENTERS IN ITS IMMEDIATE\r\nENVIRONMENT ARE ENDING.  THE NET EFFECT OF ALL THIS LOOPING IS AN\r\nOFFICIALLY STATIONARY INITIAL MOTION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT\r\nIS PRETTY MUCH ISOLATED FROM THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES.  THIS\r\nLARGER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND BRING OLGA WITH IT.  THERE IS NOW GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG THE UKMET...AVIATION...AND GFDL MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COMMENCING IN\r\nA DAY OR SO...AND IS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 32.6N  55.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 32.5N  56.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 32.5N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  57.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 29.5N  59.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 28.0N  63.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-11-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED NOV 28 2001\r\n\r\nOLGA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND BECOME ASYMMETRIC.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN\r\n77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nOLGA HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWEST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH A\r\nSHORT-TERM MOTION OF 235/4.  IT IS NOT YET CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS\r\nTHE START OF THE MOTION LONG FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS OR\r\nTHE START OF ANOTHER LOOP.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS \r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD START OLGA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HR EVEN IF THE CURRENT MOTION IS ANOTHER LOOP.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOW FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE WEST\r\nIS INCREASING THE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF OLGA...\r\nAND THAT THIS FLOW IS WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE HURRICANE.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT\r\nOLGA IN THE NEXT 6-24 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS\r\nFOR WEAKENING.  THINGS GET A LITTLE TRICKIER BEYOND 36 HR. \r\nCLIMATOLOGY INDICATES THAT MOST ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT\r\nMOVE SOUTHWESTWARD WEAKEN...OR AT BEST HOLD THEIR OWN.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...AND THE GOOD CHANCE THAT OLGA'S SMALL CORE WILL GET\r\nDISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM TOWARD\r\nWARMER WATER... AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL COULD RE-FORM IN IN A POSITION TO\r\nDECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR.  SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...OLGA MAY WEAKEN\r\nMORE SLOWLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 32.2N  56.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 32.0N  56.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 31.5N  57.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 30.6N  59.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 29.6N  60.9W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 28.5N  64.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-11-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM AST WED NOV 28 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH OLGA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS\r\nOF GRADUAL DECAY...WITH THE CONVECTION DECREASING IN INTENSITY\r\nAND COVERAGE AND THE EYE BECOMING CLOUD-FILLED.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT...BUT BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY\r\nLESS IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE NOW AS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING THE\r\nWINDS ARE DECREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 225/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BUILDING\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF OLGA...AS WELL\r\nAS A NEWLY-FORMING UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N60W.  OLGA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE\r\nOF THE RIDGE AS NOW INDICATE BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IT\r\nIS A COMPROMISE IN SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND THE SLOWER VICBAR...LBAR...AND NHC98.\r\n\r\nUPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE WEST\r\nOF OLGA IS STARTING TO IMPINGE ON THE HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH SO FAR\r\nTHE FASTER MOTION HAS SOMEWHAT DECREASED THE IMPACT.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HR WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OLGA TO WEAKEN FURTHER...AND THIS IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE FORECAST IS STILL TRICKY\r\nBEYOND 36 HR.  CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT MOST ATLANTIC TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES THAT MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD WEAKEN...OR AT BEST HOLD THEIR OWN.\r\nON THIS BASIS...AND THE GOOD CHANCE THAT OLGA'S SMALL CORE WILL GET\r\nDISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN.  INDEED...THE\r\nAVN AND UKMET BOTH WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL WAVE IN 72 HR.\r\nHOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 25C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES BY 72 HR.  SHOULD THE SHEAR DECREASE FOR SOME REASON...\r\nLIKE OLGA FINDING A LIGHT SHEAR AREA IN THE MIDDLE OF AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...THEN WEAKENING WOULD LIKELY BE SLOWER THAT CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT SUCH LIGHT SHEAR REGIONS\r\nMAY FORM NEAR OLGA...BUT THEY DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE SIZE AND\r\nLOCATION OF THESE FEATURES.   BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL KEEP THE TRENDS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 31.1N  57.3W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 30.1N  58.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 29.0N  59.9W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 27.9N  62.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 27.1N  64.2W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 26.0N  68.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olga","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-11-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED NOV 28 2001\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLIES...IS IMPACTING OLGA.\r\nTHE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THE EYE IS BECOMING POORLY DEFINED.\r\nSUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THAT\r\nOLGA HAS BEEN EMBEDDED IN...MAY ALSO BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY...65 KNOTS...IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nSATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI...SAB WASHINGTON...AND THE\r\nAIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY.  A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nFORECAST...AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE SHIPS MODEL...DOES NOT WEAKEN\r\nOLGA AS FAST AS SHOWN HERE.  SHOULD THE VERTICAL SHEAR DIMINISH FOR\r\nSOME REASON...THE WEAKENING TREND COULD BE REVERSED SINCE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS.  HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO DECLINE AS IT IS DOING AT THE MOMENT...OLGA WOULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 220/11 AS THE CYCLONE IS BEING \r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A \r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS \r\nIS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE TRACK SHOWN IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CURRENT NUMERICAL \r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 29.9N  58.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 28.7N  59.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 27.5N  61.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N  63.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 25.5N  70.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-11-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU NOV 29 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES\r\nTHE STORM SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SUGGESTING THE \r\nBEGINNING OF AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FROM AN \r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  IN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS \r\nSHOWS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 3 DAYS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET \r\nALSO SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION IN 2 \r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE WITH ONLY A \r\nSLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH DVORAK CURRENT T NUMBERS ARE 4.0...65 KNOTS...DATA T \r\nNUMBERS ARE 3.5.  AND A 23Z QUIKSCAT SHOWS NO WINDS OVER 45 KNOTS.  \r\nALSO CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE \r\nCENTER.  SO THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY DECREASED TO \r\n60 KNOTS.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE AVIATION MODEL...SHOWS \r\nCONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 28.9N  59.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 27.6N  61.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 26.4N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 25.9N  66.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 25.7N  68.1W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 25.5N  70.5W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-11-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM AST THU NOV 29 2001\r\n\r\nOLGA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEARING THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n55 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/15.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OLGA...AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PERSIST FOR 24-48 HR BEFORE\r\nWEAKENING AS A TROUGH MOVES TO THE U. S. EAST COAST.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD KEEP OLGA ON A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR 24 HR OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECELERATION.\r\nALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...INCLUDING THE\r\nAVN...WHICH HAS BACKED OFF OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN FORECAST\r\nEARLIER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nWHILE OLGA IS CURRENTLY GENERATING STRONGER CONVECTION THAN AT\r\nANY OTHER TIME IN ITS LIFE...IT IS EXPERIENCING 20-30 KT OF SHEAR\r\nACCORDING TO ANALYSES BY CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS CONDITION SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT\r\nLEAST 36 HR...AND OLGA SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THIS TIME.\r\nTHE MODELS SUGGESTS THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER 36\r\nHR...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THE WEAKENING COULD BE INTERRUPTED\r\nOR AT LEAST SLOWED AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE 36-72 HR PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 28.1N  60.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 27.0N  62.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 26.1N  65.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 25.6N  67.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 25.5N  69.4W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 25.5N  71.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-11-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU NOV 29 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF OLGA HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCONVECTION AS ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW 20-30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\nSHIP HBEB REPORTED 34 KT WINDS AND A 1001.2 MB PRESSURE ABOUT\r\n45 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 18Z...AND THE SHIP WAS LIKELY NOT\r\nIN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 55 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 235/17.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DRIVING OLGA...AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THIS\r\nRIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 24-36 HR AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE TOWARD THE U. S. EAST COAST.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD ALLOW OLGA TO MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...THEN\r\nGRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MAJOR\r\nDIFFERENCES BEING IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TOO BUT CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST CLOSER TO\r\nTHE FASTER MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 36 HR...AND OLGA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY\r\nWEAKEN DURING THAT TIME.  SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR MAY OCCUR\r\nIN ABOUT 36-60 HR...BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED AND OLGA\r\nWILL LIKELY BE TOO DISORGANIZED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE DECREASE.\r\nTHUS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING IN 72 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 26.9N  62.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 25.7N  64.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 24.8N  67.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  70.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N  72.2W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 24.5N  75.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-11-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU NOV 29 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF OLGA REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A SMALL\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON.  HOWEVER QUIKSCAT AND TRMM DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS MAY BE NO MORE THAN 40 KT.  THERE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER OLGA AND\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.  THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE NECEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEARING REGIME SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  THUS...EVEN THOUGH OLGA\r\nIS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS...UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO...I.E. TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW CLOUD SWIRL.\r\n\r\nA FAIRLY RAPID SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AS A RESULT OF THE \r\nSTEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. \r\nCOAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF \r\nOLGA.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING WITH \r\nTIME...AND THEREFORE THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO \r\nDECREASE.  A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION OF MOTION IS ALSO FORECAST... \r\nFOLLOWING THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT TO \r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE SLOWER NEAR THE END OF \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 25.8N  63.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N  66.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.8N  68.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  70.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.5N  72.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 23.5N  75.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-11-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2001\r\n \r\nSTRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT HAVE SHEARED THE CONVECTION\r\n...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  A 02Z SSMI PASS SHOWED NO SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS.\r\nWITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS AT 06Z AND TO\r\n35 KNOTS AT 09Z.    ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING AND OLGA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/15.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE\r\nSAME AS SIX HOURS AGO.  THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM TO WEAKEN.  THIS SHOULD SLOW\r\nOLGAS FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS THE\r\nREMNANT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 25.3N  65.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N  67.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 23.8N  70.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 23.5N  71.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N  73.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.5N  76.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-11-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI NOV 30 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  A 02Z \r\nSSMI PASS SHOWED NO SURFACE WINDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS.  THERE WERE SOME \r\n35 KT VECTORS FROM THE QUIKSCAT THIS MORNING...BUT THEY WERE \r\nCONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE SWATH EDGE IN AN AREA WHERE THE PASSIVE \r\nSSMI DATA SHOWED LOWER WINDS.  THERE IS NO LONGER ENOUGH DEEP \r\nCONVECTION TO GENERATE A DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER.  OLGA BARELY HAS \r\nENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE \r\nARE ALSO HINTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO \r\nDISTORT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM \r\nTHE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT THAT \r\nIS MITIGATING AGAINST THE WARMING WATER TEMPERATURES...AND OLGA MAY \r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS \r\nEVENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/15...THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THERE HAS \r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING.  THERE IS SOME \r\nDISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET AS TO HOW FAST THE RIDGE TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF OLGA WILL WEAKEN...WITH THE AVN STALLING THE \r\nREMNANTS OF OLGA BEFORE REACHING THE BAHAMAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS NOT AS SLOW AND CARRIES A WEAK REMNANT LOW INTO THE BAHAMAS IN \r\nABOUT 48 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 24.2N  66.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 23.5N  69.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 23.0N  71.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  72.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  74.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.0N  76.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-11-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001\r\n \r\nSURFACE WIND DATA FROM ANOTHER MICROWAVE PASS AT 14Z CONFIRM THAT\r\nTHE PEAK WINDS IN OLGA ARE ABOUT 30 KT.  OLGA IS NOT GOING QUIETLY\r\nINTO THIS LAST GOOD NIGHT OF THE HURRICANE SEASON...AS IT HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING ENOUGH CONVECTION...ALL EAST OF THE CENTER...TO\r\nQUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT THE CONVECTION HAS CREPT\r\nA LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  WHILE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ABATE SOME AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LEFT OF OLGA TO TAKE ADVANTANGE.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS SLOWED...TO 235/6 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NEARLY \r\nZERO OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.  WHILE THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OLGA IS WEAKENING...I SUSPECT\r\nTHAT IT IS MORE RELATED TO A DISTORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nBY THE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE CONVECTION.  THE AVIATION \r\nMODEL MOVES OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS. \r\nTHIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...WHICH \r\nCONTINUE OLGA SMARTLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL CUBA.  \r\nRECENT TRENDS...AND THE AVIATIONS OUTSTANDING TRACK RECORD THIS \r\nSEASON...HAVE CONVINCED ME TO SLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST A \r\nBIT...ALTHOUGH IT STILL IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE AVIATION. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST BELOW CALLS FOR OLGA TO DEGENERATE INTO A \r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...IF THE CIRCULATION \r\nCONTINUES TO ELONGATE...THE CYCLONE MAY DISSIPATE INSTEAD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 23.7N  67.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.0N  68.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N  70.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 22.8N  71.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 22.8N  72.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  74.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-12-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI NOV 30 2001\r\n\r\nA CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION \r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EDGE.  TRMM MICROWAVE \r\nDATA STILL SHOW SOME 30 KT SURFACE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE AREA OF 25-30 KT SPEEDS IS \r\nSHRINKING.  THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW SPOTS OF 30 TO 35 \r\nKNOTS...HOWEVER THE HIGHER WIND SPEED VALUES APPEAR TO BE RAIN \r\nCONTAMINATED.  OLGA IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nSTATUS...FOR NOW.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM MAY TEMPORARILY \r\nDECREASE...BUT IT IS PRESUMED THAT OLGA HAS WEAKENED TOO MUCH TO BE \r\nABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW \r\nCLOUDS...I.E. A REMNANT LOW...WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALTERNATIVELY...THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME ELONGATED AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN \r\nA DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH \r\nAND NORTHWEST OF OLGA HAS WEAKENED...RESULTING IN A SLOWING OF THE \r\nFORWARD SPEED.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR \r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FLOW TO CARRY \r\nOLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION.  THE \r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE...TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH \r\nOF THE LATEST AVN MODEL TRACK.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 23.4N  68.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 23.2N  69.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  70.3W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  71.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 23.0N  72.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N  74.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-12-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM AST SAT DEC 01 2001\r\n\r\nOLGA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT...\r\nALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST\r\n6 HR.  THE CONVECTION ALSO SEEMS TO BE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND AFWA...AN EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWING 30 KT WINDS\r\nIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND REPORTS FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41647.\r\n\r\nTHE PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER OF OLGA IS A BIT DIFFICULT TO FIND...\r\nAND SMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE CENTER\r\nARE COMPLICATING THE ISSUE.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION \r\nIS 240/7...AND THIS MIGHT BE A TRIFLE FAST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nSURFACE DATA SHOW LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF OLGA...WITH WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N 66W.  SINCE\r\nOLGA IS SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED...IT SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD BY THE FLOW AROUND THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...CALLING FOR THE CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO\r\nBECOME WESTWARD BY 24 HR AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HR.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nANALYSES OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHEAR TENDENCY FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR OVER OLGA HAS\r\nDECREASED TO ABOUT 20 KT.  SOME FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR IS\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.\r\nHOWEVER...OLGA WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED ON WHAT IS NORMALLY THE SIDE\r\nOF THE UPPER LOW DOMINATED BY SUBSIDENCE...A LESS THAN IDEAL\r\nLOCATION.  THUS...IF THE DECREASE IN SHEAR HAS ANY EFFECT...IT\r\nMOST LIKELY WOULD ONLY LENGTHEN THE LIFE OF OLGA AS A DEPRESSION BY\r\n12-24 HR FROM WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW IMPACTING OLGA FROM 48 HR ONWARD...\r\nAND THAT SHOULD FINISH THE CYCLONE OFF IF IT HAS NOT YET ALREADY\r\nDIED.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 22.9N  68.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N  69.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 22.6N  71.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 22.7N  72.2W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 22.9N  73.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 23.5N  75.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-12-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT DEC 01 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  \r\nTHE CONVECTION IS AT A MINIMUM THIS MORNING AND IS LOCATED EAST OF \r\nTHE CENTER.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 30 KNOT WINDS \r\nUNCONTAMINATED AND A FEW 35 KNOT CONTAMINATED.  THERE ARE SEVERAL \r\nSHIPS REPORTS WITH 25 KNOTS AND A DRIFTING BUOY HAS 30 KNOTS.  SO \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.   THERE IS CURRENTLY 20 TO 25 \r\nKNOTS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL INTERPRETS THE AVIATION MODEL TO WEAKEN THE SHEAR FOR 12 HOURS \r\nOR SO AND THEN TO INCREASE IT AGAIN EVEN STRONGER.  SO THE SYSTEM \r\nCOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS BUT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE \r\nAFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS SINCE YESTERDAYS LAST VISIBLE \r\nIMAGES IS 230/5...BUT THE MOTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS APPEARS TO \r\nBE ABOUT 270/05  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A WEAKENING OF THE \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS \r\nSHOULD INCREASE THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND DECREASE THE \r\nWESTWARD COMPONENT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR CONTINUED SLOW \r\nFORWARD SPEED AND IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nBUT IS STILL LEFT OF THE AVIATION AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 22.8N  68.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N  69.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.1N  70.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 23.6N  71.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 24.2N  72.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 25.5N  74.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-12-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT DEC 01 2001\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY.   \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY IS A LITTLE RAGGED \r\nAND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER IS FORMING A SHORT DISTANCE \r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER POSITION.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN \r\nEROSION OF THE MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AS A \r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES TO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IN 48 \r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY SHOWING A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD (UKMET AND NOGAPS) AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD (GFDL \r\nAND AVN).  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE GUIDANCE.  \r\nTHIS TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS FOR THE NEXT \r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER AND THERE IS SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.  THERE IS A 31 KNOT SHIP REPORT IN THE BAND.  THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT 30 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS/AVIATION MODEL VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS 22 KNOTS AT 18Z AND IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 39\r\nKNOTS IN 60 HOURS.  SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN\r\n48 HOURS...RATHER THAN 24 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING IF THE WINDS ACTUALLY INCREASED TO 35\r\nKNOTS OR SO IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIP ALSO PCGR REPORTED 11.5 FT SEAS IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF \r\nTHE CENTER AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS OF 150 N \r\nMI ON THE EAST SIDE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 23.0N  68.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N  69.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.2N  71.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.0N  72.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N  72.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  73.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-12-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT DEC 01 2001\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE \r\nCENTER AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF OLGA.  DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 35 KT...\r\nT2.5...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF T3.0...OR 45 KT.  AS SUCH...OLGA HAS \r\nRE-STRENGTHENED BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR \r\nTO GOOD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED TO THE WEST DUE TO \r\nMODERATE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05.  OLGA HAS ACTUALLY MOVED\r\nLITTLE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nVORTICITY CENTER CAN BEEN SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DROPPING\r\nSOUTHWARD JUST TO THE WEST OF OLGA.  THIS APPEARS TO BE INDUCING\r\nSOME BINARY INTERACTION MOTION ONCE AGAIN...AND CAUSING THE CYCLONE\r\nTO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NOW NORTHWESTWARD.  AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM\r\nDROPS FARTHER SOUTH...OLGA SHOULD TURN BACK MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY EVEN WESTWARD...IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nAVN MODEL QUICKLY MOVES A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINAS IN 24\r\nTO 48 HOURS...WHICH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF OLGA.  THIS ALLOWS THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND\r\nTHE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN...PUSHING OLGA BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH\r\nTHE AMPLITUDE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND KEEP THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nAS THE AFOREMENTIONED VORTICITY CENTER DROPS SOUTHWARD...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE\r\nBAHAMAS AND AFFECT OLGA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nOLGA TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING...THEN THE CYCLONE COULD MOVE UNDER\r\nA 200 MB ANTICYCLONE EAST OF FLORIDA LIKE THE NEW 18Z AVN RUN IS\r\nFORECASTING.  THIS WOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND ALSO PROLONG THE ALREADY VERY LONG 2001 ATLANTIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\n12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON 13-FT SEA \r\nHEIGHTS REPORTED IN 21Z AND 00Z SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 23.6N  69.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 24.1N  69.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 24.7N  70.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 25.3N  70.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 26.0N  71.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 26.5N  73.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":31,"Date":"2001-12-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2001\r\n \r\nIT IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED OR REFORMED TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  OLGA SEEMS TO BE UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW NOW...AND THE\r\nCONVECTION IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER INTO A BAND.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS BAND IS ABOUT 100 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND THE\r\nPATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THAT OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAGAIN.  DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  HAVING NO NEW DIRECT OBSERVATIONS...I WILL KEEP THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SITTING UNDER THE\r\nUPPER LOW DOES NOT PROVIDE OLGA MUCH IN THE WAY OF OUTFLOW NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...BUT IT DOES PROVIDING A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHEREFORE...SOME LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A NOT-VERY-CONFIDENT 360/6.  A SHORT-WAVE \r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL BE \r\nERODING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF OLGA OVER THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW OLGA TO LIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE MORE \r\nBEFORE THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE...TOWARDS THE AVIATION MODEL SOLUTION.  THE AVIATION HAS DONE \r\nRATHER WELL WITH OLGA LATELY...BEING THE FIRST AMONG THE AVN/UKMET/ \r\nGFDL/NOGAPS GROUP TO SLOW THE EARLIER SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND KEEP \r\nOLGA OUT OF THE BAHAMAS.  \r\n\r\nA BEND BACK TO THE WEST IS QUITE POSSIBLE BY 72 HOURS...BUT BY THEN \r\nTHERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF OLGA.  NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD \r\nINCREASE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT PROBABLY WILL NOT BE STRONG \r\nENOUGH TO KILL OFF OLGA FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST BELOW. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 24.6N  69.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 25.3N  69.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 26.4N  70.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 27.5N  70.2W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 28.0N  70.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  71.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":32,"Date":"2001-12-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA REFUSES TO GO AWAY. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT OLGA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...DESPITE THE \r\nMORE SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE...AND HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED. OLGA HAS \r\nMOVED UNDERNEATH AND MERGED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...HENCE THE MORE \r\nSUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nWAS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...T2.5...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND \r\nDATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0...OR 45 KT...A 02/0947 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS \r\nINDICATING SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 40 KT WIND VECTORS...AND SHIP PGHT \r\nREPORTING A PRESSURE OF 1001.1 MB NEAR THE CENTER AT 02/12Z. OUTFLOW \r\nHAS ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS NOW MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/07.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS \r\nSITUATED ABOUT 600 NM EAST OF OLGA AND IS ACTING TO LIFT THE SYSTEM \r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES A \r\nSTRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER INDIANA MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 KT IN \r\nSTRONG ZONAL FLOW. EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS FEATURE WOULD PLACE THE \r\nTROUGH DUE NORTH OF OLGA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...A LITTLE FASTER THAN \r\nTHE 06Z AVN MODEL RUN IS INDICATING...AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND \r\nNOGAPS POSITIONS. THE RESULT IS THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD DISAPPEAR IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS... \r\nCAUSING OLGA TO UNFORTUNATELY SLOW DOWN AND TURN BACK TO THE WEST... \r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN LOOPING AGAIN.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nAGREE ON THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINING INTACT THROUGH \r\nTHE PERIOD AND THAT SHOULD PREVENT OLGA FROM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD \r\nAND GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG POLAR WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 \r\nHOURS...AND THEN TURNS OLGA BACK TO THE WEST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST AFTER THAT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN...GFDL...AND \r\nGFDN MODEL SUITE...EXCEPT THAT MORE WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE AVN.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AS COMPLICATED AS THE TRACK FORECAST. I AM \r\nUNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT OLGA WILL GO BACK TO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nTHAT COULD RESIST VERTICAL SHEAR...OR REMAIN A WARM-CORE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE WHICH WOULD MAKE VERTICAL SHEAR A SIGNIFCANT FACTOR IN THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND \r\nDISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 60 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH IT HAS BEEN DOING \r\nFOR THE PAST 36 HOURS...YET OLGA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. THE \r\nAVN AND GFDN KEEP THE CYCLONE BETWEEN 50 AND 40 KT...RESPECTIVELY... \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING BELOW TROPICAL STORM \r\nSTRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. HOWEVER... \r\nIF THE AVN MODEL IS CORRECT IN BUILDING A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER \r\nTHE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nAND MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN COULD KEEP OLGA ONGOING FOR \r\nSEVERAL MORE DAYS.  AS SUCH...THE ONSET OF DISSIPATION WAS PUSHED \r\nBACK TO THE 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 25.9N  69.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 26.9N  69.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 27.8N  69.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 28.4N  69.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.7N  69.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  71.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":33,"Date":"2001-12-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS \r\nQUITE IMPRESSIVE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A \r\nHURRICANE...COMPLETE WITH A BANDED-EYE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...DEEP \r\nCONVECTION IS LACKING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A 02/1559Z \r\nTRMM OVERPASS ONLY INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KT AND...  \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  UPPER- \r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS SYMMETRICAL AND HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/09.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL \r\nDAYS...OLGA HAS ACTUALLY TRACKED IN A STRAIGHT LINE FOR MORE THAN 6 \r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS RECENT STEADY MOTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED \r\nSINCE A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE \r\nMID-ATLANTIC COAST AT 40 TO 50 KT WILL RAPIDLY BYPASS THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHE RESULT WILL BE A RAPID WEAKENING/FILLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF OLGA AND CREATE A WEAK STEERING FLOW \r\nPATTERN IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  OLGA IS FORECAST TO MAKE \r\nA SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP...OR STALL AGAIN...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN \r\nBACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS.  ONLY THE GENERAL \r\nTRENDS AND NOT THE SPECIFIC FORECAST TRACKS FROM ALL OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS WERE USED SINCE THEY ALL APPEAR TO WEAKEN OLGA TOO QUICKLY.  \r\nTHE 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOULD HAVE BEEN INITIALIZED WITH A CENTRAL \r\nPRESSURE OF 1001 MB INSTEAD OF 1010 MB BY THE AVN...1011 MB BY THE \r\nUKMET...AND 1008 MB BY NOGAPS. THE HIGHER INITIAL PRESSURE HAS \r\nRESULTED IN A RAPID DECAY OF THE CYCLONE BY ALL OF THE MODELS IN 12 \r\nTO 24 HOURS...WHICH CAUSES OLGA TO BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND THE AVN-NOGAPS-GFDN CONSENSUS SINCE THE UKMET AND \r\nGFDL MODELS DISSIPATE OLGA IN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AS COMPLICATED AS THE TRACK FORECAST. \r\nDUE TO THE HIGHER THAN ACTUAL CENTRAL PRESSURE...ALL OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS RAPIDLY WEAKEN OLGA.  HOWEVER...INSPITE OF THE POOR MODEL \r\nINITIALIZATION...THE AVN AND GFDN MODELS KEEP OLGA AT OR SLIGHTLY \r\nABOVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WHETHER OR NOT \r\nOLGA WILL BE A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE AND THE \r\nCLOUD PATTERN NOTED IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...IT WOULD NOT \r\nTAKE MUCH CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER TO GET OLGA INTO A \r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION MODE. IN FACT...SOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS \r\nALREADY FILLED IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND WATER \r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DRY SLOT IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT TO \r\nTHE WEST OF THE CENTER. OF EQUAL CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE 200 \r\nMB ANTICYCLONE NOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 29N75W \r\nBY ALL THREE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. SHOULD OLGA SURVIVE THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS TRACK BENEATH THAT UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...THEN THE \r\nDECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN COULD RESULT \r\nIN SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY TO NEAR HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH AGAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 26.8N  69.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.8N  69.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 29.0N  69.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 29.4N  68.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.8N  69.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  72.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":34,"Date":"2001-12-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN DEC 02 2001\r\n\r\nOVERALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL BY TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nSTILL TROPICAL BY THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY.  ALL THREE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AGREE ON 35 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...SO\r\nTHIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nSWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PART OF\r\nOLGAS CIRCULATION.  THESE WESTERLIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-\r\nWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING OFF THE U.S.  EAST COAST.  THE 18Z RUN OF\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL...AVN...MODEL INDICATES INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER OLGA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A RELAXATION IN\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  ALTHOUGH OLGA HAS\r\nBEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE UP TO NOW...IT IS QUESTIONABLE\r\nWHETHER IT WILL ABLE TO SURVIVE THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND BE ABLE\r\nTO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LATER ON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 7 KT.  NUMERICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OFF THE COAST\r\nWILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO CARRY OLGA VERY FAR OFF TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE NUDGED EASTWARD TO\r\nSOME EXTENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  OLGAS MOTION WILL\r\nPROBABLY BECOME SLOW AND ERRATIC AFTER THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE\r\nSYSTEM.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATEST AVN RUN...THE CURRENT NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST DOES NOT LOOP OLGA BACK AS FAR TO THE WEST BY THE END \r\nOF THE PERIOD AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 27.3N  69.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 28.2N  69.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 29.0N  69.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 29.4N  69.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N  68.3W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.0N  69.5W    30 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":35,"Date":"2001-12-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON DEC 03 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS RE-DEVELOPED A SMALL BURST OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION \r\nOVER AND JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SHIP KIRF TRAVERSED THE \r\nCENTER OF OLGA AROUND 03Z AND REPORTED 28 KT WINDS AND A PRESSURE OF \r\n1009.5 MB ABOUT 70 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 06Z...OUTSIDE \r\nOF ANY CONVECTION. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT \r\n35 KT SINCE SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE CONVECTIVE AREAS \r\nCLOSER TO THE CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE EAST AND RESTRICTED TO \r\nTHE WEST DUE TO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. \r\nEAST COAST THE PAST 12 HOURS IS NOW LOCATED ALMOST DUE NORTH OF \r\nOLGA. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE TROUGH WILL PICK UP AND RECURVE \r\nOLGA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAST POLAR WESTERLIES...AND FINALLY END \r\nTHE 2001 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL \r\nINSTEAD ONLY ACT TO WEAKEN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AND CAUSE \r\nOLGA TO BECOME STATIONARY OR MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP DURING \r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...IF OLGA SURVIVES THE \r\nINCREASING WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...THEN THE \r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST UNDER THE \r\nINFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE \r\nTO THE NORTH OF OLGA.  SINCE THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE LOOKS LIKE A \r\nSQUASHED SPIDER WITH FORECASTS HEADED IN JUST ABOUT EVERY DIRECTION \r\nPOSSIBLE...A SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS APPEARS \r\nTO BE IN ORDER.  NO ONE PARTICULAR MODEL STANDS OUT AS HAVING A GOOD \r\nHANDLE ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF OLGA...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS MODEL \r\nWHICH NO LONGER BRINGS OLGA ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH \r\nFLORIDA IN 72 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC \r\nPATTERN AND BLOCKING SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN. \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS \r\nPUTTING PRESSURE ON THE WEST SIDE OF OLGA AND IS CREATING A SHEARING \r\nPATTERN WITH ALL OF THE CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED TO THE EAST. \r\nTHERE MAY BE SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND OLGA COULD \r\nEVEN WEAKEN BACK TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. BUT FOR THE MOST \r\nPART...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. IF \r\nOLGA SURVIVES THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL \r\nFORECASTING THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO WEAKEN AND ALSO DEVELOP A 200 MB \r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS WOULD PLACE OLGA \r\nIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING BY 48 TO 72 HOURS \r\n...IF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 27.6N  69.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 28.2N  69.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 28.6N  69.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N  68.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  69.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.5N  70.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":36,"Date":"2001-12-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON DEC 03 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS A VIGOROUS BUT LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE 6Z SHIP REPORT OF 28 KT\r\nCLOSE TO BUT OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION...I HAVE TO PRESUME THAT OLGA IS\r\nSTILL MAINTAINING MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT INCREASING WESTERLIES ARE FAST APPROACHING\r\nOLGA...AND WILL BE PRECEDED BY A SHOT OF DRY AIR.  THIS ONE-TWO\r\nPUNCH OVER THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS WILL CERTAINLY WEAKEN OLGA...AND\r\nSHOULD PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO FINISH THE JOB.  HOWEVER AS WE HAVE\r\nSEEN OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...OLGA HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT CRITTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4.  THE APPROACHING WESTERLIES SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO TURN OLGA TO THE NORTHEAST SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...ONCE THE\r\nCONVECTION WEAKENS OLGA WILL PROBABLY RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nHEADING WITH THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A LOOPING MOTION CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT WITH A LARGER\r\nLOOP.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 27.8N  69.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.7N  69.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 29.3N  68.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 29.5N  67.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  68.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N  70.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":37,"Date":"2001-12-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON DEC 03 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA IS CURRENTLY BEING IMPACTED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nTHAT MOVED OFF THE U.S. COAST EARLIER TODAY.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN\r\nAN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nON THE SYSTEM.  BECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL \r\nSTORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF \r\nUNFAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN \r\nOLGA BACK TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  ALTHOUGH \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN A COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL 200 MB WIND \r\nFORECAST...OLGA SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A MOSTLY NON-CONVECTIVE \r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA BY THAT TIME.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND AVN \r\nMODEL ALL AGREE ON THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE \r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE ABOVEMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD...AND\r\nLEAVE OLGA BEHIND IN 2-3 DAYS.  A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A LOOPING MOTION BACK TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  BASED ON THE CURRENT MOVEMENT AND THE LATEST DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE THIS LOOP AT A SLIGHTLY\r\nMORE SOUTHERN LATITUDE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 27.6N  69.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.0N  68.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.2N  67.8W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N  67.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 27.0N  68.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N  70.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":38,"Date":"2001-12-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON DEC 03 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nSUPPORT ONLY 30 KNOTS AND OLGA IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STATUS.  OLGA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT STRONG SHEAR SHOULD\r\nPREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM RESTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nOLGA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE EAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS.  BECAUSE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS SHALLOW...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK OR LOOP TO THE \r\nSOUTHWEST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nDEVELOPING HIGH TO THE NORTH.  OLGA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 27.6N  68.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  67.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.5N  67.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 26.0N  68.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 25.0N  70.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":39,"Date":"2001-12-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2001\r\n \r\nOLGA REMAINS A VERY PERSISTENT AND WELL DEVELOPED CIRCULATION. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...TOPS TO \r\n-60C...HAS ONE AGAIN DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES IS \r\n30 KT...T2.0...WITH SHEAR PATTERN DATA T-NUMBERS NEAR T2.5...OR \r\n35 KT.  OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OWING TO THE \r\nMODERATE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/06.  HOWEVER...A DECREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO \r\nDEVELOP LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE \r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM OLGA \r\nWHILE A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST \r\nSIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  IT ALSO APPEARS THAT A SMALL VORTICITY CENTER \r\nMAY BE TRACKING INWARD TOWARD THE CENTER OF OLGA AND THIS COULD ADD \r\nA LITTLE MORE ENERGY TO THE SYSTEM AND MAKE THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION \r\nA LITTLE STRONGER AND DEEPER...AND MORE SHEAR RESISTANT.  THE NHC \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS DIVERGENT THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND THE \r\nFORECAST TRACKS ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN RESPONSE \r\nTO THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF OLGA.  ALL \r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE 3 BAM MODELS TAKE OLGA SOUTH AND THEN \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nALSO AGREE ON THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OR INVERTED TROUGH PASSING \r\nACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA IN 72 TO \r\n96 HOURS. GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS SYSTEM...AND THE FACT THAT IT \r\nIS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER WARMER WATER...I HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A \r\n72-HOUR POSITION FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES IN THE EVENT OLGA DECIDES \r\nTO RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SOMEWHAT HYBRID NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...IT IS DIFFICULT TO \r\nASSESS WHAT EFFECT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HAVE ON OLGA DURING THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS.  BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES...THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nSHEAR APPEARS TO BE HAVING LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN TO DISPLACE THE \r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL BE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  \r\nBY 36 HOURS...A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH \r\nOF OLGA...PLACING THE CYCLONE UNDER MORE FAVORABLE LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL \r\nEASTERLY FLOW.  GIVEN THAT OLGA WILL BE TRACKING SOUTHWARD OVER \r\nWARMER WATER...SSTS NEAR 26C... SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT IS A \r\nDISTINCT POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS \r\nINTACT AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 27.8N  67.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.4N  67.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 26.3N  68.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 25.2N  70.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 24.5N  72.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 24.5N  78.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":40,"Date":"2001-12-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE DEC 04 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND \r\nTHE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED ALONG AN \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AXIS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS \r\nMAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER DATA T-NUMBERS FROM \r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN TO 1.5...SUGGESTING THAT WEAKENING IS TAKING \r\nPLACE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER OLGA ARE EXPECTED TO RELAX \r\nSOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...AN INCREASED EAST- \r\nNORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD MAINTAIN SOME SHEAR ON OLGA.  \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO INTO A REMNANT \r\nLOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH.\r\n\r\nOLGA IS DRIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN \r\nSOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A \r\nMORE WESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND TO THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 27.5N  68.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.1N  68.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 26.0N  69.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 24.8N  71.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 24.5N  73.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 24.5N  78.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":41,"Date":"2001-12-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE DEC 04 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND ILL-DEFINED...AND THE MAIN\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS TAKEN THE SHAPE OF A NON-CURVED\r\nBAND...WELL-REMOVED FROM THE POSSIBLE CENTER.  T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO\r\nDECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 25 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO \r\nTURN BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST...STEERED BY THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  \r\n\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nOLGA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM\r\nCAN BE FOUND IN THE FOLLOWING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\r\nPRODUCTS...HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1\r\nAND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS ISSUED\r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT23 KNHC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/AVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 26.8N  67.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 26.5N  67.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N  68.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 24.5N  71.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 24.5N  74.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-05-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION TO\r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE\r\n2001 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nBEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OF ITS BROAD CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.  THE GDFL BRINGS THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE BUT STILL MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE \r\nIN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH PERHAPS A\r\nSMALL WESTWARD DRIFT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND ARE FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...LONG RANGE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND\r\nWEAKEN.  THIS WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nNO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME.\r\nHOWEVER...RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE AFFECTING THE COAST PRIMARILY FROM \r\nPUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 13.8N 101.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 101.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 101.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-05-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2001\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E LOOKS A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED IN EVENING IR IMAGES...WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDS OR\r\nCONCENTRATED COLD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION\r\nON THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS \r\nNORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER MEXICO BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS\r\nRIDGE SHOULD BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE THE SYSTEM A PUSH TO THE\r\nWEST.  NHC GUIDANCE DOES NOT ALL AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE\r\nAVN AND THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS FAVOR A WESTWARD TRACK.  THE UKMET\r\nAND THE NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL AND NHC91UK SHOW AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE LBAR\r\nPERSISTS IN TRACKING THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO...\r\nWHICH APPEARS REALLY UNLIKELY GIVEN PRESENT INDICATIONS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE AVN AND THE BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nWHILE CURRENTLY NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...THE DEPRESSION IS \r\nUNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN\r\nIN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nBRING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HR AND TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nNO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME.\r\nHOWEVER...RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST \r\nPRIMARILY FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 13.8N 101.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 13.9N 101.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 14.0N 101.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 101.8W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 102.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 103.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-05-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT STATIONARY.  THE AVIATION MODEL \r\nSHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR THREE DAYS WITH A 500-MB \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DRIFTING EASTWARD FROM BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA TO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS EVEN SLOWER THAN \r\nTHE AVIATION AND THE UKMET IS YET SLOWER.  FINALLY THE GFDL MODEL \r\nKEEPS THE CENTER IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THIS GUIDANCE AND THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A VERY SLOW 290/02 FOR 72 HOURS.   \r\n \r\nAFTER A DECREASE IN CONVECTION EARLIER...A COLD CDO TYPE FEATURE HAS \r\nRECENTLY DEVELOPED AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE GETTING A LITTLE \r\nBETTER ORGANIZED. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z SHOWS A CLOSED CIRCULATION \r\nBUT THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS WELL DEFINED AS THE PREVIOUS PASS.    \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT \r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND FORECAST ARE THE SAME AS \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BECOMING A STORM IN 12 HOURS AND \r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 70 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n\r\nNO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME.  SOME \r\nRAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST PRIMARILY FROM \r\nPUERTO ANGEL TO ZIHUATANEJO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 13.8N 101.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 13.9N 101.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 14.2N 102.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 14.3N 102.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 103.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 14.8N 104.0W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-05-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT...SO FAR...THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nOR THE GFDL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN TRANSIENT.  LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nMOVING AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.  THE FLOW PATTERN OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE\r\nDATA DOES NOT APPEAR TO AGREE VERY WELL WITH CONVENTIONAL VIS IMAGES\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  THE GFDL IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS\r\nYESTERDAY IN MAKING THE CYCLONE A STRONG HURRICANE.  IT IS NOW MORE\r\nALONG THE LINE OF SHIPS MODEL WHICH ONLY SHOWS A MODEST INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY.  STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE WEAK AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  \r\nTHEREAFTER...LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY AVN AND NOGAPS...MOVE \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO EASTWARD.  THIS PATTERN \r\nWOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE END \r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nNO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 14.0N 101.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 101.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 101.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 103.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adolph","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-05-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nAND BANDING FEATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nWINDS HAVE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ADOLPH AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE FIRST NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE 2001 EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT.  A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY.  THE FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO BRING ADOLPH TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE\r\nTO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AS WELL AS SOME REORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCENTER.  LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS...THE AVN...NOGAPS AND\r\nUK...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER MEXICO EASTWARD.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONLY THE GFDL\r\nMOVES THE TROPICAL STORM SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOVER MEXICO BEYOND 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED FOR MEXICO AT THIS\r\nTIME...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 13.9N 100.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 100.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 100.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 14.0N 100.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 100.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 14.0N 101.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adolph","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-05-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2001\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF ADOLPH HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING...\r\nWITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT RAINBAND IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND SOME ADDITIONAL BANDING CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER BUT\r\nRESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nADOLPH HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 140/2.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES...WHILE A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nCENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON\r\nWHICH OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE TRACK\r\nOF ADOLPH.  BOTH THE AVN AND THE UKMET MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nANTICYCLONE TO DRIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IMPART A\r\nWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGFDL SUGGESTS THAT ADOLPH WILL REMAIN IN THE TROUGH...AND IN FACT GET\r\nCARRIED NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 72 HOURS.  LITTLE \r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN EITHER CASE...BUT THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSITY OF ADOLPH IS IN PART DEPENDENT ON WHICH OF THE \r\nTRACK SCENARIOS UNFOLD.  A WESTWARD MOTION UNDERNEATH THE MID-LEVEL \r\nHIGH WOULD LIKELY BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT THAN A \r\nNORTHEASTWARD TRACK EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nASSUMES THE FORMER SCENARIO AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF ADOLPH...ALL\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 13.5N 100.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.5N 100.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 13.5N 100.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.5N 100.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 13.7N 100.7W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adolph","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-05-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001\r\n \r\nA CENTER POSITION FROM A RECENT SSMI PASS AGREES FAIRLY WELL WITH IR\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES.  THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DRIFTING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS WITH A CONTINUATION OF SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER WITH\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND SLOW MOTION...THE DIRECTION OF MOTION IS\r\nPERHAPS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA RATHER IMPRESSIVE CDO AND BANDING FEATURE HAVE DEVELOPED OVER\r\nNIGHT.   THE LATEST DVORACK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55 KNOTS FROM \r\nTAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AND\r\nFORECAST TO HURRICANE FORCE IN 12 HOURS OR SOONER...AND TO LEVEL OFF\r\nAT 80 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A PEAK OF 85\r\nKNOTS WHILE THE GFDL IS SLIGHTLY LESS AGRESSIVE.  WITH NO EXPECTATION \r\nOF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...WHO KNOWS HOW STRONG ADOLPH \r\nMIGHT GET.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ALL INTERESTS ALONG \r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 13.3N 100.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.1N 100.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 13.2N 100.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 13.4N 100.9W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.6N 101.3W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 14.0N 102.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adolph","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-05-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS WELL ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PLUS\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT SINCE EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nNOT QUITE REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH.  FIRST VISUAL IMAGES DO NOT YET\r\nSHOW AN EYE.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nLATER TODAY.  THERE IS NO STRONG SHEAR OVER THE AREA AND NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER- LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nADOLPH HAS BEEN DRIFTING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...120/02.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM SHOULD BE AN ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS TRACK\r\nIS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE AVN AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT WELL DEFINED...AND THERE ARE \r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ALL INTERESTS ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS \r\nOF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 13.2N  99.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 13.0N  99.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 13.2N 100.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 13.3N 100.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-05-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001\r\n \r\nA PRONOUNCED EYE HAS DEVELOPED IN THE IMAGERY.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS\r\nLIMIT SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO MINIMAL HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...BUT BASED ON OBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBERS AND THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...CURRENT WINDS ARE SET TO 80 KNOTS.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA OF HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT\r\nAND VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nA NORTHWARD DRIFT HAS BEEN NOTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nNCEP AND U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nTHE ABOVE GUIDANCE KEEPS ADOLPH OFFSHORE...HOWEVER THE GFDL BRINGS\r\nTHE CENTER TO THE COAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL SHOWS LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  IN THE LATTER MODEL\r\nRUN...IT APPEARS THAT THE BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING THE MOTION TOWARD THE COAST.\r\n \r\nIF THE NORTHWARD MOTION PERSISTS...A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE\r\nWATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nLATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 13.7N  99.6W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 14.0N  99.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.8N 100.2W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-05-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2001\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL INTENSITY IN FIRST PARAGRAPH...\r\n \r\nDEEP COLD CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND IS NOW ENCIRCLING THE \r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE OF ADOLPH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE \r\n90 AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN THE \r\nEYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED AND THE OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE PUSHING \r\n6.0.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.  \r\n \r\nAFTER MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD LAST NIGHT...ADOLPH HAS BEEN EXECUTING A\r\nLOOP TODAY...TURNING FIRST TO THE NORTH AND NOW TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST.  OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS THE FORWARD SPEED HAS\r\nINCREASED A BIT...TO 4 OR 5 KT.  IT APPEARS THAT THE DOMINANT\r\nSYNOPTIC STEERING FEATURE IS NOW THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED\r\nOVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  BOTH THE UKMET AND NCEP AVN MODELS SLIDE\r\nTHIS HIGH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD\r\nSUGGEST ENOUGH OF A WESTWARD MOTION TO KEEP ADOLPH OFFSHORE.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA THAT BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN\r\nABOUT 36-48 HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER.  \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE WIND RADII...IT IS TIME FOR A \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PART OF THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA OF HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE DAYS.  NO INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT THEN NONE ANTICIPATED THE STRENGTHENING WE HAVE\r\nALREADY SEEN.  LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nADOLPH SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY HAVE CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT\r\nTODAY AND THE 34 KT WIN RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 14.1N 100.0W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.6N 100.3W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.3N 101.2W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 16.0N 102.1W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 103.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N 105.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-05-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2001\r\n  \r\nBASED ON IR FIXES WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST \r\nSEVERAL HOURS ENDING AT 0415 UTC WAS ABOUT 305/05.  THERE HAVE BEEN \r\nNO SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE HURRICANE AVAILABLE SINCE 0415 UTC.  THE \r\nGFDL MODEL SHOWS A SLOW 5 KT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEARLY PARALLEL TO \r\nTHE COAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL IS EVEN SLOWER AND \r\nTHE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS EITHER SIMILAR TO THE GFDL OR TAKES THE \r\nTRACK FARTHER WEST.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO  \r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS WITH A WEAK PATTERN OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER \r\nMEXICO CHANGING LITTLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  BASED \r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO EXTEND THE WATCH AND \r\nWARNING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST 105 KT (AS OF 0415 UTC).  THERE \r\nIS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nCYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE RADII OF 34-KT WIND SPEED AND 12 FT SEAS HAVE BOTH BEEN INCREASED \r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON A 0600 UTC SHIP REPORT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 14.3N 100.4W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.7N 101.1W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.3N 102.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 16.3N 103.7W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-05-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE \r\nWITH A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS \r\nFAVORABLE...A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT \r\n24 HOURS.  THERE MAY ALSO BE FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL \r\nREPLACEMENTS...COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...ADOLPH IS THE STRONGEST MAY \r\nHURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.  HOWEVER IT \r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GREATER \r\nUNCERTAINTY THAN IN SITU...E.G. AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE...MEASUREMENTS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS NW...310/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK \r\nFORECAST OR REASONING.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE \r\nCENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF \r\nDAYS...BUT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH. \r\n THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY \r\nNORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE \r\nGFDL MODEL SHOWS A TRACK NEARER TO THE COAST. \r\n\r\nDEPENDING ON THE MOTION OF ADOLPH...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING/\r\nHURRICANE WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 14.6N 100.7W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.0N 101.2W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.7N 102.1W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.3N 103.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N 106.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-05-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE\r\nWITH A 20 N MI DIAMETER EYE.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE \r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE...SUPPORT 110 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...COMMON IN \r\nMAJOR HURRICANES.  \r\n \r\nADOLPH IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OR...300/07.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSHOW A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTING EAST\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE REMAINING\r\nTO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE\r\nON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A\r\nTRACK A LITTLE FARTHER OFFSHORE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBASED ON MICROWAVE DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED \r\nSLIGHTLY.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE HURRICANE WATCH \r\nFOR THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  HOWEVER THE OUTER \r\nRAINBANDS OF ADOLPH COULD STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 14.9N 101.7W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.3N 102.4W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.9N 103.8W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 105.2W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 18.0N 109.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-05-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2001\r\n \r\nOH...FOR THE WANT OF A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND PERHAPS A\r\nDROPSONDE OR TWO.\r\n \r\nOVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENING ADOLPH DEVELOPED A SYMMETRIC RING OF\r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF NEARLY -80C.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 00Z FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT.  A THREE-HOUR\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK AVERAGE GAVE THE SAME VALUE...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE MOST RECENT\r\nRAW ODT NUMBER WAS T7.0.  ADOLPH IS EXPECTED TO PEAK VERY SOON...AS\r\nFROM HERE ON OUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE WILL BE\r\nDECREASING.  LATEST SSMI FROM THE NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE PAGE HINTS AT\r\nTHE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT WOULD ALSO SUGGEST\r\nWEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THAT IS\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND A TAD FASTER.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE\r\nAVN AND NOGAPS KEEP A SOLID MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE UKMET DOES NOT HAVE AS MUCH RIDGING AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY IS SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD PROGRESS OF ADOLPH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...AND IS A BLEND OF THE AVN...GFDL...AND UKMET...ALBEIT\r\nWEIGHTED MORE TOWARDS THE AVN.\r\n \r\nWITH THE MORE WESTERLY TRACK...ADOLPH IS EDGING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST.  GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THIS INTENSE STORM...THE\r\nREMAINING TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  HOWEVER...\r\nOUTER RAINBANDS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN MEXICAN COASTAL\r\nREGIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 15.2N 102.5W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.2N 105.3W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 16.7N 106.6W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 108.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-05-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09.  A SHORTER-TERM FORWARD SPEED \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IS 10 OR 11 KNOTS.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS \r\nRIDGING CONTINUING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  \r\nSO THE MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE ABOUT 290/09.  BUT THE 00Z GFDL AND \r\nUKMET ARE MUCH SLOWER...AND I AM NOT SURE WHY.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR \r\nTHESE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED\r\nTO 6 KNOTS BY 48 HOURS.  THIS ALSO MAINTAINS SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nIS KEPT AT 125 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST CALLS FOR \r\nWEAKENING AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\nTHIS IS BECAUSE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET ON SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WEAKENING TO BE EVEN SLOWER \r\nTO OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KNOT RADIUS IS INCREASED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND \r\nDECREASED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON 01Z QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\nTHE 50-KNOT RADII ARE ALSO DECREASED.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 15.4N 103.6W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.9N 105.0W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N 106.6W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 16.9N 107.9W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.2N 109.3W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W    70 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-05-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE STILL HAS AN IMPRESSIVE PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND GOOD SYMMETRY.  THE PATTERN OF\r\nCLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE CDO IS SUGGESTIVE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS.\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS OF 6.5 CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 125-KT INTENSITY.  ON\r\nTHE PROJECTED TRACK...ADOLPH WILL NOW BE CROSSING AN SST\r\nGRADIENT...TOWARDS COOLER WATERS.  THEREFORE NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SOON.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nSIMILAR TO OUR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...  SHIPS.\r\n \r\nASIDE FROM SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES...CHARACTERISTIC OF INTENSE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES...THE MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9...PRACTICALLY THE SAME\r\nAS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM CLIMATOLOGY.\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST APPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HENCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 15.6N 104.6W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.1N 105.9W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.9N 109.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 17.3N 110.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-05-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001\r\n \r\nADOLPH HAS WEAKENED.  THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND LESS\r\nDISTINCT.  ALSO...CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE WARMED SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nDURING THE DAY.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 110 KNOTS WHICH IS A\r\nLITTLE BELOW THE LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED VALUES.  THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS PREDICTED.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE AVN\r\nWEAKEN ADOLPH PRACTICALLY TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM ENTIRELY REALISTIC.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/10...AND CLOSE TO\r\nCLIMATOLOGY.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING.  A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ADOLPH SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD...OR JUST NORTH OF WEST...TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE GFDL MODEL SLOWS ADOLPHS FORWARD SPEED\r\nCONSIDERABLY AND SHOWS A MEANDERING MOTION IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS DOES NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 15.8N 105.7W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.0N 107.2W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-05-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2001\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF ADOLPH HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVER THE LAST\r\nSIX HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 127 KT FROM KGWC...SO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 110 KT\r\nWILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SSMI/TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT ADOLPH UNDERWENT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT TODAY... AND IT\r\nMAY BE THAT THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY HALTED\r\nBY THE CONTRACTION OF NEW OUTER EYEWALL.  GIVEN THAT WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE DECREASING...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT\r\nADOLPH WILL EXPERIENCE MUCH OF THE REINTENSIFICATION STAGE OFTEN\r\nSEEN WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nONLY A SLOW DECLINE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A RAPID WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS.  THE AVN KEEPS ADOLPH ON A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK...\r\nMAINTAINING A 500 MB RIDGE ALONG 22-24N NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTH...AND CONSEQUENTLY SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED OF\r\nADOLPH WITHIN 12-36 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS THE MOST EXTREME...TURNING\r\nTHE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE 00Z RAOB FROM\r\nMAZATLAN...WHICH SHOWS A LIGHT SSW WIND AT 500 MB...IS MORE\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT-RANGE FORECASTS FROM THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nTHAN THE AVN.  I AM INCLINED TO LEAN TOWARDS THE UKMET SOLUTION AND\r\nSO THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nTHE RADII OF 12 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON SOME 00Z SHIP\r\nREPORTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 16.0N 106.6W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.3N 107.8W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.7N 109.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 16.9N 110.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-05-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2001\r\n \r\nTHE RINGS OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE OF ADOLPH ARE\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING.  CONSEQUENTLY...BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND OSCILLATING AROUND 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 100 KNOTS.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL PRACTICALLY DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE QUICKLY BUT THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...MODELS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND\r\nTHEIR WEAKENING TREND IS CONSIDERED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT\r\nNOT AS FAST AS SUGGESTED.  ACCORDING THE SHIPS MODEL...MOST OF THE\r\nWEAKENING IS ATTRIBUTED TO COOLER SST.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A 280 DEGREES HEADING ABOUT 9 KNOTS.\r\nONLY THE GFDL TURNS ADOLPH TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE GFDL FORECAST.  IN FACT...IT\r\nTURNS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT IN THE\r\nMODEL...SHARPLY TO THE EAST BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THE REST OF THE MODELS\r\nKEEP ENOUGH RIDING TO THE NORTH TO MAINTAIN ADOLPH ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK FOR A FEW DAYS.  THIS IS PREFERRED SOLUTION AND IS \r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 16.1N 107.4W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 108.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 16.8N 110.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 111.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N 113.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-05-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2001\r\n \r\nTHE AREAL EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.\r\nBASED ON THE NCEP HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSIS...ADOLPH IS NOW NEAR\r\n26 DEG C SST.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AS NOTED EARLIER...\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFDL AND AVN MODELS WEAKEN THE\r\nHURRICANE QUITE RAPIDLY AND THIS IS NOT BELIEVED TO BE ENTIRELY\r\nREALISTIC.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE..AND SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING RATE THAN GIVEN\r\nBY THE SHIPS MODEL\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION...285/08...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER BAJA...AND THIS HAS\r\nPROBABLY CAUSED THE SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A VERY SLOW MOTION AND A TURN TO THE\r\nRIGHT IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE\r\nAVN...NCEP GLOBAL...MODEL SHOWS A PRONOUNCED 500 MB ANTICYCLONE\r\nBUILDING NEAR AND WEST OF BAJA DURING THAT TIME.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 16.2N 108.3W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 16.6N 109.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 16.8N 111.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-05-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2001\r\n\r\nLATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE IS ENTRAINING \r\nSOME STABLE AIR INTO ITS CIRCULATION.  THE EYE DISAPPEARED A WHILE \r\nBACK.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO DVORAK ESTIMATES.  ADOLPH \r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT MUCH LESS WEAKENING THAN SHOWN BY THE AVN \r\nAND GFDL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ALSO VERY \r\nCLOSE TO A ONE DVORAK T-NUMBER PER DAY DECREASE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/08.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEAKNESS\r\nOVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS PREDICTED BY THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE\r\nADOLPH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD\r\nHEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO\r\nSLOW THE FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL AND TURN ADOLPH TO THE RIGHT IN\r\nTHE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.  THE LBAR MODEL...WHICH IS MUCH\r\nFASTER...HAS BEEN TAKING ADOLPH TOWARD BAJA.  BASED ON THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODEL...SUCH A\r\nSCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 16.4N 109.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 16.7N 110.1W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 16.9N 111.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N 116.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-05-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2001\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08.  HURRICANE ADOLPH HAS CONTINUED \r\nTO TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THE PAST 12 HOURS WHILE \r\nWEAKENING.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER AND \r\nAN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY.  DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...BUT STABLE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE OF THE \r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK \r\nPHILOSOPHY.  THE MAJORITY OF THE OBJECTIVE FORECAST MODELS KEEP \r\nADOLPH ON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TWO \r\nOUTLIERS ARE THE LBAR MODEL...WHICH SHARPLY RECURVES THE HURRICANE \r\nACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE GFDL...WHICH ALMOST \r\nIMMEDIATELY TURNS ADOLPH NORTHWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.  THE \r\nGFDL AND LBAR SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF \r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA CURRENTLY SHEARING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS NOTED IN \r\nTHE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  ONCE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE \r\nSTEERED WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWARD BY THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE \r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ADOLPH.\r\n \r\nADOLPH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nEXPECTED OWING TO THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR \r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE HURRICANE \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL...WHICH BRINGS ADOLPH DOWN TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM IN 72 \r\nHOURS.  ALSO...DUE TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED...THE WIND RADII \r\nWERE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 16.5N 109.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 16.6N 111.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 16.8N 112.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 115.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 117.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-05-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2001\r\n\r\nGOOD FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS THESE MODELS FORECAST...PRIMARILY\r\nAVN...ADOLPH HAS BEEN WEAKENING FAST.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING AND IN FACT\r\n...ADOLPH DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HURRICANE ON IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...\r\nBECAUSE IT WAS SUCH AN INTENSE HURRICANE AND DVORAK CONSTRAINS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  BUT...MOST\r\nLIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONSIST OF A TIGHT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nLATER TODAY.  A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nADOLPH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM. IT SHOULD THEN BE \r\nSTEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION \r\nIN 72 HOURS OR SO OVER COOLER WATERS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 16.4N 110.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 113.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 17.0N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-05-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2001\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...I.E. 65 \r\nKNOTS.  SOME BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER \r\nOF THE CYCLONE...BUT THEY ARE NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  SINCE ADOLPH IS \r\nMOVING OVER A MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN...WE EXPECT TO SEE SOME MORE \r\nINTERMITTENT FLAREUPS OF HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITHIN THE SYSTEM \r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...ADOLPH IS ON A \r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS \r\nBEFORE...AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE IN THE DISSIPATION PHASE BY THE END \r\nOF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...CENTER FIXES ARE MORE \r\nUNCERTAIN THAN BEFORE.  HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SOME MORE \r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 270/7.  AS THE \r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS...LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING WILL BECOME DOMINANT.  \r\nTHE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING \r\nAHEAD OF ADOLPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS MAY BLOCK THE \r\nWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SOMEWHAT.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK FORECAST TAKES ADOLPH WESTWARD...ONLY A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 16.4N 111.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.4N 113.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N 114.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adolph","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-05-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THAT ADOLPH\r\nWAS CENTERED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT\r\nTHERE ARE DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DATA.\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A CONTINUED SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION...270/6.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME SPREAD\r\nWHICH GENERALLY INDICATES A LESS WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENT.  AS \r\nNOTED EARLIER...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nDEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF ADOLPH...WHICH MAY BLOCK ITS WESTWARD \r\nMOTION IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KNOTS.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDIMINISHED DURING THE DAY.  THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED\r\nTO STORM STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.  THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL...\r\nTRANSIENT...FLAREUPS OF CONVECTION...BUT A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE\r\nAND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ADOLPH TO\r\nCONTINUE SPINNING DOWN.  BOTH THE NCEP AND U.K.  MET OFFICE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A NON-EXISTENT CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS...WHEREAS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN ADOLPH QUITE AS AGRESSIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ADOLPH DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 16.4N 111.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.4N 112.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.5N 113.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N 114.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 16.5N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adolph","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-06-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DURING THE \r\nPAST 6 HOURS WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  THERE IS LITTLE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\nIS BECOMING EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION \r\nREMAINS BASED ON 01/00Z VISIBLE...INFRARED...AND TRMM MICROWAVE \r\nDATA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND \r\nSAB AT 00Z.  HOWEVER... ADOLPH HAS WEAKENED EVEN FURTHER SINCE \r\nTHEN...SO A LOWER BUT RATHER GENEROUS 50 KT INITIAL INTENSITY HAS \r\nBEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM BASED ON THE WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION \r\nEVIDENT IN THE 01/0002Z TRMM 37 GHZ DATA.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 265/05.  NOW THAT ADOLPH IS BECOMING VERTICALLY  \r\nSHALLOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE MID- AND \r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS \r\nMAINTAIN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARDS...THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE THROUGH 72 \r\nHOURS...WHILE THE UKMET WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND TAKES ADOLPH SLOWLY \r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST AND KEEPS ADOLPH ON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE THROUGH THE \r\nPERIOD...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED SIMILAR TO THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nADOLPH APPEARS TO BE GOING IN THE TANK FAIRLY QUICKLY AND MAY NOT \r\nEVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS TIME TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM \r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS IN THE EVENT A DIURNAL FLARE UP OF CONVECTION \r\nOCCURS NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER LATER TONIGHT.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL KEEPS ADOLPH AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE RAPID \r\nDECREASE IN CONVECTION AND A LARGE FIELD OF COOL STABLE AIR AND \r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 16.2N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 16.2N 112.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.2N 113.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 16.3N 114.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 16.4N 114.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adolph","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-06-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2001\r\n \r\nIR SATELLITE IMAGERY...SSMI AND QUICKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT ADOLPH\r\nIS WEAKENING RAPIDLY.  IN FACT...SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED WITH WINDS BLOWING AWAY\r\nFROM ADOLPH.  BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY...PRIMARILY\r\nBASED ON CONTINUITY...IS 40 KNOTS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT\r\nTHIS TIME BUT SOME INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY REDEVELOP\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nAN EARLIER SSMI PASS CLEARLY REVEALED THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nIS WELL TO THE EAST OF WHATEVER SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS.  THIS MEANS\r\nTHAT ADOLPH HAS SLOWED DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND IS MOVING WESTWARD\r\nABOUT 3 KNOTS.  A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED AND BECAUSE THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS A DISSIPATING SHALLOW SYSTEM...THERE IS NO POINT \r\nIN DISCUSSING THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 16.1N 112.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 16.0N 112.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N 112.7W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adolph","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-06-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2001\r\n \r\n\r\nADOLPH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  THE LAST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0200Z SHOWED \r\nA FEW RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT VECTORS.  THE DVORAK DECAY RULES YIELD A \r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND THAT IS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS \r\nPACKAGE.  UNLESS THE NEXT QUIKSCAT SURPRISES...ADOLPH SHOULD BE A \r\nDEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND PERHAPS DISSIPATED BY THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONFIRMS THAT ADOLPH IS NOT\r\nMOVING MUCH...PERHAPS 270/3.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CAUGHT\r\nBETWEEN ANTICYCLONES TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND NORTH.  TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...BUT A SLOW WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY OVER THE TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO\r\nDISSOLVE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 16.2N 112.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 16.2N 112.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 16.2N 112.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 16.3N 113.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 16.4N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adolph","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-06-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2001\r\n \r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN AT LEAST 12 HOURS SINCE ADOLPH HAS PRODUCED ANY \r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE \r\nNOW BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1300Z DID \r\nSHOW THAT THE INTENSITY THEN WAS AT LEAST 30 KT.  CONTINUED \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND IF ADOLPH DOES NOT GENERATE ANY \r\nCONVECTION SOON IT WILL NO LONGER QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING AT 295/4.  MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS WILDLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL TAKING THE \r\nREMNANTS EAST...WHILE THE BAMS CONTINUE OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  \r\nTHE AVN SHOWS LITTLE MOTION...AND THAT IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED BY \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 16.5N 112.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 16.8N 113.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adolph","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-06-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADOLPH DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2001\r\n \r\nADOLPH HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITHOUT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.  WIND SPEEDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25\r\nKNOTS OR LESS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/03.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN \r\nDIVERGENT.  THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOW AN EASTWARD MOTION FOR 12 HOURS \r\nFOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.  THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOW TRACKS \r\nRANGING FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS STATIONARY.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-06-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUN 19 2001\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1300 MILES SOUTHWEST \r\nOF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BANDING \r\nFEATURES HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0 (30 KT) AT 20/00Z.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD \r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS OWING TO AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT \r\nHAS DEVELOPED.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  DUE TO \r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BROAD SYSTEM CENTER... \r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK IN THE SHORT TERM IS STILL SOMEWHAT VAGUE.  MOST OF \r\nOUR MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nBY 12 HOURS AND CONTINUING THAT TRACK MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  \r\nHOWEVER...AFTER THAT CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS AMONG THE \r\nVARIOUS MODELS.  THE 12Z UKMET MODEL DID NOT EVEN SEEN THIS RATHER \r\nLARGE CIRCULATION AND LOSES IT AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE 12Z NOGAPS AND \r\n18Z AVN RUNS WERE SIMILAR THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH NOGAPS WEAKENING THE \r\nSYSTEM AND TAKING IT OFF MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN THE GENERAL \r\nDIRECTION OF HAWAII...WHILE THE AVN GRADUALLY TURNS THE SYSTEM MORE \r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW \r\nCURRENTLY SITUATED NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  LBAR AND THE DEEP BAM MODEL \r\nAPPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM THEIR USUAL EARLY RECURVATURE BIAS.  THE \r\nOFFICAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH \r\nTHE PERIOD SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE UPPER- \r\nLEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF HAWAII TO GRADUALLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE RAPID INCREASE IN BANDING FEATURES DURING THE PAST 3 \r\nHOURS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM \r\nINTENSITY.  WITH SUCH A WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW PATTERN AND NO \r\nSIGNIFICANT SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM THROUGH 48 \r\nHOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL COOLER WATER IS \r\nREACHED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...STEADY WEAKENING IS \r\nEXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER SUB-25C SST WATER AND INCREASING \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOPS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL \r\nONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 46 KT IN 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THAT \r\nOUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR MODEL WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM QUICKLY \r\nNORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.  IF TROPICAL DPRESSION TWO-E TRACKS A LITTLE \r\nFURTHER SOUTH THAN THE OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES...THEN IT \r\nWOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND POSSIBLY BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 12.0N 127.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.4N 129.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 131.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.8N 134.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 136.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-06-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ORGANIZED IN CURVED BANDS BUT IS  \r\nINTERMITTENT.  SINCE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE \r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST SIX \r\nHOUR...WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY \r\nLOCATED UNDER A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SOME \r\nINTENSIFICATION AND WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS LATER \r\nTODAY.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE \r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR \r\nCAUSED BY A LARGE UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. IN \r\nFACT...MOST OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY INCLUDING THE \r\nGFDL WHICH DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  ONLY THE \r\nAVN KEEPS A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL VORTMAX FOR A FEW DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A\r\nTRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.  IN\r\nTHE LONG RANGE...BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE A WEAKENING SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED MORE TO THE WEST BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nNOTE: ONE COULD SPECULATE THAT THE FORMATION OF TWO-E COINCIDED WITH \r\nTHE ARRIVAL TO THE AREA OF THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE \r\nMADDEN/JULIAN OSCILLATION AS SHOWN IN THE NCEP CLIMATE PREDICTION \r\nCENTER (CPC) GRAPHIC OF 200 MB VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 12.2N 128.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 130.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N 135.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-06-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUN 20 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING... \r\nCONSISTING MOSTLY OF SHORT-LIVED BLOBS WITH LITTLE BANDING.  AS A \r\nRESULT...MOST OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BELOW \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  OUTFLOW IS DECENT AND THE WATER IS STILL \r\nWARM...SO STRENGTHING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED.  HOWEVER... \r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 TO 36 \r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE \r\nSYSTEM WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND SHIPS WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH IR IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS \r\nNOT MUCH HELP...WHICH HELPS CONFIRM THE LIMITED ORGANIZATION OF THE \r\nSYSTEM.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC \r\nRIDGE...WITH A LARGE UPPER COLD LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE \r\nCENTERED NEAR 24N/147W.  THIS LOW COULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE TO A \r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS THE \r\nSYSTEM DECAYS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INFLUENCE OF THE \r\nUPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN...A MODEL WHICH HAS \r\nHANDLED THIS SYSTEM VERY WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE COOLER WATERS...AS WELL AS THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER \r\nCOLD LOW...SHOULD PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT \r\nTHREAT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 12.2N 129.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 12.4N 131.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.4N 134.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.7N 136.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 143.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-06-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUN 20 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 15Z SHOWED UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS OF 30 KT.  \r\nPRESUMABLY THE WINDS IN THE CONVECTION WERE A LITTLE HIGHER AND SO \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  BARBARA IS \r\nSTILL UNIMPRESSIVE IN THE IR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...WITH ILL-DEFINED \r\nBANDS AND RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS.  WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS \r\nSTILL OK...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY DECREASING...SO THERE \r\nWOULD SEEM TO BE LITTLE ROOM FOR MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN TRACKING MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST THAN INFERRED EARLIER FROM IR IMAGERY OR EVEN THE\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...BUT\r\nWILL SOON...OR MAY ALREADY...BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE UPPER\r\nCOLD LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 24N/147W.  THUS THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVIATION MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE COOLER WATERS...AS WELL AS THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER\r\nCOLD LOW...SHOULD PREVENT THIS SYSTEM FROM BEING A SIGNIFICANT\r\nTHREAT TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 13.2N 131.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.1N 132.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.4N 135.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.6N 137.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 19.5N 145.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-06-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUN 20 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT \r\nFROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM BOTH KGWC AND SAB.  AN EARLIER SSMI \r\nOVERPASS SHOWED SOME UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS TO NEAR 40 KT...SO \r\nTHE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ESPECIALLY IN THE POLEWARD CHANNEL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  BARBARA\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE MADE A POLEWARD STAIR-STEP IN THE TRACK DURING THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM\r\nCENTER.  EARLIER TRMM AND SSMI OVERPASSES SUGGEST A SHORT TERM\r\nMOTION OF 280/13...BUT I AM NOT READY TO BUY OFF ON THAT TREND QUITE\r\nYET.  THERE IS NOW EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST GUIDANCE\r\nON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE ONLY MAJOR\r\nOUTLIER IS LBAR WHICH TAKES BARBARA NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 60\r\nHOURS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF HAWAII IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH BARBARA AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING\r\nWESTWARD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THEREFORE...THE LOW SHOULD\r\nHAVE LITTLE EFFECT...IF ANY...ON THE TRACK AND ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE\r\nTHE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH.  THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM SHOULD BE THE \r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS AND WELL \r\nNORTH OF THE UKMET...WHICH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THIS CYCLONE \r\nBEFORE IT EVER DEVELOPED.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nIMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE OVERALL\r\nCIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE TIGHTENED UP.  THE EARLIER BAND OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SOUTHERLY INFLOW TO REACH THE INNER CORE.\r\nTHIS MAY ALREADY BE HAPPENING BASED ON THE NOTED INCREASE IN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH\r\nBARBARA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SUB-26C SST WATER...THE WARM MOIST\r\nSOUTHERLY INFLOW MAY HELP TO OFFSET ANY WEAKENING FOR ANOTHER 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR BARBARA TO BECOME A STRONG\r\nTROPICAL STORM AND REACH NEAR-HURRICANE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n\r\nNOTE...HISTORICAL RECORDS NOW SHOW THAT TROPICAL STORM BARBARA IS \r\nTHE EARLIEST NAMED STORM THIS FAR WEST IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 14.0N 132.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 134.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N 138.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.8N 141.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N 146.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-06-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2001\r\n\r\nIR IMAGES SHOW THAT BARBARA CONSISTS OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH NO BANDING FEATURES.  THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nBEGINNING TO BECOME ELONGATED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE\r\nUPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 45 KNOTS.  BARBARA IS\r\nALREADY APPROACHING COOL WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR.  SO...A\r\nWEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ALL\r\nMODELS AND IN FACT THE NCEP AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE JUST\r\nA TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  AS ANTICIPATED...THE\r\n500 MB RIDGE IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD WHILE BEING ERODED ON ITS\r\nWESTERN PORTION BY THE STRONG UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE AVN.  IN GENERAL...THIS IS THE TREND SHOWN BY GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHE GFDL CAN NOT BE USED FOR TRACK BECAUSE IT KEEPS DISSIPATING THE \r\nSYSTEM TOO SOON.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHALLOW OR \r\nA TROUGH AND SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 14.9N 133.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 135.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 138.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N 143.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N 148.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-06-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 21 2001\r\n \r\nBANDING IMPROVED FOR A TIME EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND THE 12Z \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 55 KT.  THE \r\nESTIMATE FROM KGWC WAS LOWER...35 KT.  SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION HAS \r\nDECREASED IN EXTENT AND DEPTH...AND THERE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN AN \r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nIS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE \r\nDECAY STAGE HAS ALREADY BEGUN.  \r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY ENVIRONMENTAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES CONTINUE TO BE A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM...AND A\r\nLARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 24N/148W.\r\nTHE COLD LOW HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IS FORECAST BY\r\nBOTH THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE STORM IS NOW ENTERING THE RELATIVELY DRIER ENVIRONMENT SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE UPPER LOW.  ALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING \r\nONLY SLOWLY...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A SHARP INCREASE IN VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.  DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14.  THE FUTURE TRACK OF BARBARA\r\nWILL BE GOVERNED TO SOME EXTENT BY HOW LONG THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER LOW.  IF THE CONVECTION\r\nFADES SOONER RATHER THAN LATER...AS EXPECTED...THEN THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 15.0N 134.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 15.7N 137.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.6N 139.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.6N 142.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 144.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 149.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-06-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 21 2001\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BANDING\r\nHAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 9-12 HOURS.  DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM KGWC...TO A CONSTRAINED 55 KT FROM TAFB.  A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 14Z SHOWED NOTHING HIGHER THAN 35 KT.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT AND IS PROBABLY GENEROUS.  \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BARBARA IS MOVING INTO AN \r\nINCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  A CONTINUATION OF THIS WEAKENING \r\nTREND IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING ON A VERY STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nFOR THE PAST THREE DAYS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13... \r\nABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENS THE CYCLONE \r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND TURN TO THE WEST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 15.3N 135.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 137.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.9N 140.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 145.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-06-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 21 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 3.0...OR 45 KT...\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.  AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT.  SHIP V2FA2 LOCATED 105 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER\r\nREPORTED A NORTHEAST WIND OF 47 KT AND 26 FT SEAS AT 22/00Z.\r\nHOWEVER...THE WINDS SEEM RATHER HIGH AND REMOVING THE 15 KT\r\nNORTHEAST SHIP MOTION YIELDS 32 KT WINDS...WHICH BETTER FITS THE\r\nSATELLITE PATTERN AND EARLIER SYNOPTIC DATA.  WIND RADII REMAIN\r\nUNCHANGED...BUT THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THAT\r\nSHIP REPORT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  BARBARA HAS REMAINED ON TRACK\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE LOW-LEVEL AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE?  BY 36 HOURS...BARBARA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND BE STEERED MORE\r\nWESTWARD BY THE PREVAILING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS SCENARIO IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nAVN...GFDL...UKMET...  AND NOGAPS MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS... AND \r\nTHEN SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nWHILE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAY OCCUR...\r\nTHE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR STEADY OR POSSIBLY RAPID WEAKENING\r\nAS BARBARA MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OWING TO A 50 TO 75 KT SUBTROPICAL JET THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 15.8N 137.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 138.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 17.4N 141.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.9N 143.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 146.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 151.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-06-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 22 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING \r\nWHILE BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE MID-LEVELS. DEEP CONVECTION IS \r\nMINIMAL AT THIS TIME AND T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING. INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND BECAUSE COLD WATER AND \r\nSHEAR...FURTHER WEAKENING IS INDICATED.  \r\n\r\nBARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 12 AND 14 \r\nKNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THAT GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. HOWEVER...SOME \r\nADDITIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCURS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nTWO.  THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN \r\nISLANDS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 16.3N 138.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 140.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 143.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N 147.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 152.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-06-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 22 2001\r\n\r\nBARBARA IS UNDERGOING INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER \r\nLEVEL TROUGH SEEN WEST OF THE STORM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBURST THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...\r\n35 KT...AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THIS...BARBARA WILL STAY\r\nA 35 KT SYSTEM ONE MORE TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  BARBARA SHOULD BE INCREASING STEERED\r\nBY LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS AS THE SYSTEM FURTHER WEAKENS...SO IT\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK SOUTH OF THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY\r\nGIVEN HOW THE STORM IS COMING APART.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE BAMS...THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF 24C-25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FURTHER\r\nINCREASES IN SHEAR DUE TO THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BARBARA COULD DISSIPATE\r\nBEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON BARBARA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 16.7N 139.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.3N 141.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 143.6W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 145.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 148.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 153.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-07-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001\r\n \r\nIR IMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION AND THERE IS ENOUGH CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS TO\r\nCLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AND ABOUT TWO DAYS FROM COLD WATERS.  NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS...WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.5N 113.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-07-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS AN\r\nEAST/WEST 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPING A \r\nSLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 125W OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  \r\nMOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE \r\nLATEST GFDL IS RATHER SLOW WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES THE SYSTEM\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY CONTINUING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5...INDICATING\r\nMINIMUM TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE KGWC ESTIMATE IS 1.5.\r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SYMMETRIC AND COLD CDO FEATURE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM COSME.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 45 \r\nKNOTS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS FROM COOLER SSTS...NOT \r\nQUITE AS AGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO \r\n51 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 16.0N 110.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.8N 112.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N 114.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 116.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 117.6W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.2N 120.7W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-07-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/15.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES\r\nTO SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE EAST-WEST RIDGE DEVELOPING NEAR 125W\r\nLONGITUDE.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGFDL AND UKMET MODELS.  THE NOGAPS IS A LITTLE FASTER WHILE THE\r\nAVIATION MODEL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM AFTER TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SLOWING THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED TO 8 KNOTS AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS IS STILL FASTER THAT \r\nTHE SLOW GFDL AND UKMET BUT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.\r\n \r\nA SYMMETRIC COLD CDO FEATURE PERSISTS.  THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS 45 KNOTS...SAB IS 35 KNOTS...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL IS\r\nEVEN LESS.  THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY AND FORECAST TO 60 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL UNDER LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER \r\nCOLDER SSTS IN 48 HOURS OR SO..AFTER WHICH WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 16.5N 112.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 114.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.1N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N 120.0W    50 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-07-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2001\r\n\r\nCOSME SHOWED SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER TRYING TO POP OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS SINCE APPEARED\r\nOVER THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT ON\r\nTHE BASIS OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND\r\n35 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 295/12...AND THE 6 HOUR MOTION MAY BE LESS THAN 10\r\nKT.  COSME IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST WILL WEAKEN AS A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT COSME SHOULD\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN SPEED\r\nBETWEEN THE MUCH FASTER BAM MODELS AND NHC91 AND THE MUCH SLOWER\r\nGFDL...GFDN...AND UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE\r\nSLOWER MODELS...SLOWING COSME TO 4 KT AFTER 48 HR.  ONE NOTABLE\r\nOUTLIER IS LBAR...WHICH CALLS FOR A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  WHILE\r\nTHIS IS POSSIBLE IF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH DIGS MORE THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...THE STORM WOULD THEN QUICKLY DIE OVER COLD WATER.\r\n \r\nWHILE COSME IS CURRENTLY PARTLY SHEARED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW COSME TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS LONG AS IT CONTINUES OVER WARM WATER.  THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKES COSME OVER COOLER WATER IN 24-36 HR...THUS\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UP TO THAT TIME\r\nAND SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 16.7N 112.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.2N 114.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.8N 115.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.3N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.7N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-07-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001\r\n \r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER COSME AND BOTH\r\nCONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nWELL REMOVED FROM A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK CONVECTION.  T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED AS COSME BECAME DISORGANIZED SO...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS.  IT IS HARD TO CONTINUE FORECASTING\r\nINTENSIFICATION WITH A COOL OCEAN AHEAD AND INCREASING SHEAR.  AT\r\nTHIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...WHICH IS ALREADY A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS.  COSME COULD WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY.  HOWEVER...SOME BURST\r\nOF THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP SINCE THESE PACIFIC SYSTEMS ARE\r\nTENACIOUS.\r\n\r\nCOSME IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SLOW DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVEN MORE AS THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS COSME ON THE SAME\r\nGENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 17.5N 113.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 116.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 117.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 118.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cosme","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-07-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nSLOWING FORWARD MOTION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nEXCEPT FOR A SMALL REGION ABOUT 100 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nALSO A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER COSME SHOWS ALL WIND SPEEDS LESS\r\nTHAN 35 KNOTS AND THE ONLY 30 KNOT WINDS ARE RAIN CONTAMINATED SOUTH\r\nAND WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS AND\r\nCOSME IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS.  RATHER THAN\r\nFORECASTING DISSIPATION...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION\r\nTO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER MARGINALLY COOL SSTS AND WITH NOT \r\nVERY STRONG SHEAR AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 18.2N 114.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 115.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cosme","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE FORECAST IS\r\nFOR SLOWING FORWARD MOTION AND A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.  ALSO A 16Z \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS OVER COSME SHOWS ALL WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 35 KNOTS.  \r\nRATHER THAN FORECASTING DISSIPATION...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE \r\nDEPRESSION TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS OVER MARGINALLY COOL SSTS AND \r\nWITH NOT VERY STRONG SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH \r\nTHIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 18.4N 115.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 19.2N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 118.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 119.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cosme","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2001\r\n \r\nCOSME CONTINUES AS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL.  CONVECTION WAS\r\nABSENT EARLIER...HOWEVER A NEW BURST HAS OCCURRED SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...30 KT...\r\nAND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE SET TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING\r\nTO THE NORTH OF COSME WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH NORTH OF THE RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN U.S.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS DIG THE TROUGH SOUTHWARD\r\nAND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND THE LBAR AND BAM MODELS RESPOND TO THIS\r\nBY TAKING COSME NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.  HOWEVER...WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT YET SHOW A CLEAR INDICATION OF THE FORECAST\r\nDIGGING...AND THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD\r\nINSTEAD OF NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO\r\nAND JUST NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION AFTER 24 HR AS THE RIDGE FINALLY WEAKENS.  THIS FORECAST IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nCOSME IS ALREADY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26C...AND BY 48\r\nHR SHOULD BE OVER TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 24C.  THIS IS LIKELY TO\r\nNEGATE THE EFFECTS OF DECREASING EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nCONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 48 HR...AND IT COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE\r\nCYCLONE DOES NOT REGAIN PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 19.2N 116.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.9N 117.6W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.2N 118.7W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.2N 119.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.2N 120.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cosme","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-07-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2001\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF COSME HAS \r\nDISSIPATED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB... \r\nSAB...AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 25 KT.  \r\nTHIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 15/0118Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS... \r\nWHICH SHOWED A FEW SPOTS OF 25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/06.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY PHILOSOPHIES.  COSME IS MOVING OVER \r\nCOLDER WATER WITH COOLER WATER AHEAD OF IT.  THE RESULT SHOULD \r\nBE CONTINUED WEAKENING AND A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT WILL BE \r\nSTEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD...OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...BY THE STRONG \r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  COSME COULD EVEN DISSIPATE BEFORE THE \r\nEND OF TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 19.1N 116.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.3N 117.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.6N 119.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cosme","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2001\r\n \r\nCOSME HAS NOT GENERATED ANY DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 03Z THIS\r\nMORNING...AND IS BEGINNING TO BE UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE.  WITH COOLER WATERS AHEAD OF COSME NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCOMEBACK IS EXPECTED...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A BROAD AND NON-CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE NEXT \r\nSIX TO TWELVE HOURS.  THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SUGGEST THAT \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS \r\nAND MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 19.4N 117.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.7N 118.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 19.8N 119.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.8N 121.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N 122.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cosme","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-07-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SWIRL OF LOW AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES WESTWARD...275/6.\r\nCOSME HAS NOT GENERATED ANY DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 03Z THIS\r\nMORNING...AND IS UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ARE ABOUT 24C...SO NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCOMEBACK IS EXPECTED.  COSME NO LONGER HAS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED\r\nOF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE \r\nREMNANT LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST FOR A DAY \r\nOR TWO UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. \r\n\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 19.4N 118.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 119.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 121.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH\r\nOF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBEEN CLASSIFIED AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.  EVERY AVAILABLE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT..SHIPS\r\nMODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 290/11...AROUND OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nWHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A TRACK PARALLEL AND AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS \r\nIS ALSO INDICATED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THIS IS\r\nAN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.  ALL INTERESTS\r\nALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 11.7N  94.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 12.5N  96.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 13.0N  98.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N 100.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 102.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-07-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE AND \r\nPERSISTENT AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...AND APPEARS TO BE GETTING\r\nCLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THIS...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  THE CYCLONE IS TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nLARGE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS SUGGESTS A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND NHC GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH LBAR AND BAMD.  TWO SMALL\r\nFLIES IN THE OINTMENT ARE A WEAK SURFACE CIRCULATION SEEN IN\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD\r\nNUDGE THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGESTS THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS WHY THIS CYCLONE SHOULD NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 48 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY \r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEPRESSION...AS ANY\r\nMOVEMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM CONDITIONS NEAR OR ON TO THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 12.1N  95.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 12.7N  96.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 13.5N  98.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 101.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 14.8N 103.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 106.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-07-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW\r\nA CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY AND THIS BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 150 N MI OF THE \r\nMEXICAN COAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS IS THE BASIS\r\nFOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE \r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DALIA.  WITH WARM WATER AND \r\nLITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO 65 KNOTS \r\nBY 36 HOURS AND TO 80 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE.  IN \r\nCONTRAST TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES \r\nSHOW A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED \r\nWITH THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE ONLY TEMPORARY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 12.6N  96.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.3N  97.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.1N  99.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 101.7W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.0N 103.6W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-07-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nMAINTAINS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SO THAT THE INTIAL \r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY EXCEPT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. \r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AND SO HAS THE \r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE WIND UP TO 85 \r\nKNOTS BY 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL MODEL IS EVEN \r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND SPEED RADII BRING 35 KNOT WINDS ALMOST \r\nTO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE \r\nCHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN HURRICANE WARNING LATER TONIGHT \r\nOR EARLY SUNDAY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF DALILA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 13.5N  97.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.2N  98.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.1N 100.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.2N 103.6W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 106.0W    85 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-07-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB INDICATE THAT WINDS\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS.  THE CENTER IS LOCATED UNDER DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR.  BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nAS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST.  UNANIMOUSLY...ALL AVAILABLE MODELS MAKE\r\nDALILA A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nDALILA IS MOVING 300 AT 11 KNOTS.  THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK.  A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN ENSEMBLE BUT A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE RELIABLE GFDL WHICH BRINGS DALILA CLOSER TO THE COAST.\r\nGIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT A SMALL\r\nDEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST...A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 13.8N  98.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.0N 100.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N 105.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 108.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-07-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAINED AT 55 KT AT \r\n06Z.  SINCE THAT TIME COLD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED...AND ALTHOUGH THE \r\nCENTER IS STILL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IT \r\nSEEMS TO BE EMBEDDED A LITTLE BETTER NOW.  THE INTENSITY IS \r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT \r\nDALILA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON.  THE GFDL SHOWS VERY RAPID \r\nSTRENGTHENING TO NEAR 100 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR LEVELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC THINKING IS UNCHANGED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER...AND IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF A FAIRLY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET\r\nBUILD THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT DALILA FROM GETTING MUCH CLOSER TO\r\nTHE COAST.  HOWEVER...ONLY A MODEST DEPARTURE OF THE TRACK TO THE\r\nRIGHT WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 14.6N 100.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.4N 101.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.4N 103.8W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.2N 105.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-07-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n \r\nON SATELLITE IMAGES...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH NOT\r\nMUCH EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND THE AIR FORCE\r\nWEATHER AGENCY ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LOWER.  EVEN WITH THE FIRST FEW\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THUS HOW STRONG THE SYSTEM IS.\r\nWATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...WHICH\r\nCOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTHAT DALILA WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SHEAR AND STRENGTHEN TO\r\nNEAR CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/13.  THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN \r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER \r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DALILA FROM GETTING MUCH CLOSER \r\nTO THE COAST.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODEL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE BAJA \r\nPENINSULA NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE \r\nSYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY \r\nCLUSTERED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE WEST- NORTHWEST \r\nMOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  NONETHELESS...ONLY A SMALL DEPARTURE OF \r\nTHE TRACK TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO \r\nTHE COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 15.3N 101.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N 103.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 16.9N 105.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.8N 107.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 108.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 111.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-07-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE CENTER OF DALILA IS NOT OBVIOUS.  IT\r\nIS BELIEVED TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nLATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES GIVE NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH\r\nRECENT IMAGES SUGGEST SOME SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES\r\nDEVELOPING.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nHOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT THE STORM HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TODAY...I HAVE BACKED OFF JUST SLIGHTLY ON THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE PASSING OVER MARGINAL SSTS SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY TO COMMENCE BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/13.  THERE IS NOT\r\nMUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE NCEP...U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE...AND NAVY GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF DALILA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST.  THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN THE\r\nOUTLIER...AND IT SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  BASED ON THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW SHOWN BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...SUCH A TRACK DOES\r\nNOT SEEM REASONABLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 16.1N 102.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.6N 104.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 106.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 109.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-07-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DECREASED AND TYHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION \r\nHAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WESTERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED TO THE EAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS \r\nHELD AT 60 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 \r\nKT...T3.5...FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD \r\nHANDLE ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF DALILA BY DISCOUNTING THE GFDL MODEL \r\nAND ITS NORTHWARD TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST GFDL \r\nRUN IS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINING \r\nMODEL SUITE.  ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE ON A \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM \r\nMOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE \r\nUKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS STRAIGHT-FORWARD AS THE TRACK \r\nFORECAST.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DISRUPTING THE CENTRAL DEEP \r\nCONVECTION AND DALILA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED.  THE SHIPS \r\nAND AVN MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND \r\nBRING DALILA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TREND WAS MAINTAINED IN CASE A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION \r\nFIRES OFF LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 16.5N 103.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.3N 105.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 17.9N 107.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 108.6W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.9N 110.1W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF DALILA ON IR IMAGES IS DISTINCTLY RAGGED AS STRONG \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES.  THE DVORAK T NUMBER FROM SAB IS \r\nCOMING DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.  THE AVN \r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE \r\nSHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS \r\nBEFORE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST BY THE UKMET DOES NOT LOOK \r\nQUITE AS FAVORABLE AS THE AVN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nUNENTHUSIASTICALLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...\r\nAND AVN.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE 0100 QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS...WHICH SHOWS VERY LITTLE WIND OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE PASS ALSO SHOWS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM...A COMPLETELY WRONG RESULT THAT ILLUSTRATES ONE\r\nOF THE DIFFICULTIES IN INTERPRETING SCATTEROMETER DATA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 17.4N 105.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 107.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.3N 109.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.9N 110.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N 112.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...WHICH \r\nALSO MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY.  IF THE CENTER \r\nIS EMBEDDED FARTHER INTO THE DENSE OVERCAST THAN WE CURRENTLY \r\nTHINK...DALILA COULD BE STRONGER.  SINCE THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER \r\nIS STILL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION.  \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KNOTS.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN \r\nTHAT DALILA WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE SHEAR...AND STRENGTHEN AS \r\nTHE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING.  GLOBAL \r\nMODELS INDICATE SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTING OVER THE \r\nSYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE PREDICTED INTENSITY HAS BEEN \r\nREDUCED A LITTLE FURTHER...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST \r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT...TO NEAR 12 KT.  THE CURRENT \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE \r\nNORTH OF DALILA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS ALSO IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nGFDL...U.K. MET...NOGAPS AND AVN MODELS TRACKS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 17.8N 106.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 107.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 109.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N 111.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 112.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT \r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.  THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE \r\nEVIDENCE OF BANDING...AND UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE \r\nRESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  DALILA REMAINS \r\nIN AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  OUR BEST INTENSITY \r\nFORECASTING GUIDANCE...SHIPS...CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE STORM \r\nWILL STRENGTHEN.  IN VIEW OF THIS...AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE \r\nSHEAR MAY RELAX SOMEWHAT...WE ARE STILL CALLING FOR DALILA TO BECOME \r\nA HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THIS PREDICTION IS NOT HIGH.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED...BEST ESTIMATE IS \r\nTHAT THE TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  \r\nTHIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  A WEAK \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF DALILA FOR THE \r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT \r\nSHOWN BY THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 17.8N 106.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.4N 108.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 110.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.4N 111.8W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n \r\nDALILA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND NOW \r\nAPPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.  SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEVELOPED CDO PATTERN WITH COLD \r\nOVERSHOOTING TOPS OF -80C TO -83C CLOSE TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT \r\nSLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF \r\n55 TO 60...T3.5 PLUS...FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING \r\nDALILA WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE \r\nWESTWARD AFTER THAT.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH SUCH A LARGE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE \r\nTO PREVIOUS THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nCLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUE TO COOL AND DALILA MAY ALREADY \r\nBE A HURRICANE.  THERE IS STILL SOME WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...BUT \r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE \r\nMOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO.  THE CDO AND OVERSHOOTING TOPS \r\nPATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT \r\nPOSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR LATER TONIGHT AND/OR \r\nTOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY \r\nMODELS.  IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...DELILA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRACKING \r\nOVER SUB-26C SST WATER AND THIS SHOULD BEGIN THE STEADY WEAKENING \r\nTREND WHICH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 17.9N 107.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.3N 108.9W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 112.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.3N 113.7W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 116.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2001\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER DALILA HAS BEEN INCREASING STEADILY \r\nFOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS... \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  \r\nTHERE IS NO BANDING VISIBLE...BUT THERE ARE HINTS OF A WARM SPOT IN \r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE CDO THAT MIGHT PRESAGE THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE.  \r\nSATELLITE-BASED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE \r\nNOW 65 KT...AND ON THIS BASIS DALILA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 01Z INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS \r\nWITH THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...285/9.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF \r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL \r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE ONLY EFFECT OF THIS LOW APPEARS TO BE A SLOWING OF \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24-36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL/AVN/ \r\nUKMET CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nNEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL DO A \r\nLOT MORE DEEPENING.  SSTS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...SO A \r\nMODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nKEEPS DALILA A HURRICANE FOR 72 HOURS...THE AVN WEAKENS THE SYSTEM \r\nVERY RAPIDLY AFTER 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATES IT BY 60.  WHILE THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A CONSERVATIVE WEAKENING TREND...GIVEN \r\nTHE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...I THINK THE AVN MIGHT HAVE THE RIGHT \r\nIDEA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 18.2N 108.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.3N 112.7W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 19.6N 114.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 116.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2001\r\n\r\nDALILA CONTINUES TO HAVE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C CLOSE\r\nTO THE CENTER...AND THERE IS SOME POORLY DEFINED BANDING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...\r\n65 KT...AND 65 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY...SO\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NUDGED UP TO 70 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF DALILA...WITH A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE\r\nOVER CALIFORNIA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nDIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...BUT NOT FAR ENOUGH\r\nTO BREAK IT.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DALILA ON A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE ON HOW FAST\r\nDALILA WILL MOVE.  THE BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND NHC91E ARE MUCH\r\nFASTER...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nDALILA CONTINUES IN LIGHT-TO-MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...\r\nAND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES COLDER WATER.  STEADY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME...WITH THE ONLY QUESTION\r\nBEING HOW FAST WILL THE WEAKENING BE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...DALILA COULD WEAKEN\r\nFASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK INTO EVEN COLDER WATER.\r\n\r\nON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DALILA SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO\r\nISLAND IN ABOUT 12 HR.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 18.3N 109.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 18.6N 111.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 18.9N 112.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.3N 113.7W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.6N 115.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2001\r\n \r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON DALILA.  THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER BECAME EXPOSED FOR A SHORT TIME BEFORE A NEW BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION PARTIALLY COVERED IT.  A TRMM SATELLITE OVERPASS AT\r\n1205Z THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE SHOWED ONLY\r\nA PARTIAL EYEWALL AT BEST...WHICH CASTS SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER\r\nDALILA WAS AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nDECREASED TO 65 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND THAT MIGHT BE A LITTLE\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER WAS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/9.  THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS DALILA\r\nSHOULD STAY SOUTH OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL\r\nBE SOMEWHAT WEAKENED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A LARGE SPREAD IN SPEED\r\nBETWEEN THE FASTER BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND NHC91 AND THE SLOWER\r\nAVN...UKMET...AND GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO\r\nAND SHIFTED NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND AGAIN BE A\r\nCOMPROMISE ON THE SPEED.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE WINDS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS\r\n25-30 KT EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER DALILA.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER 24C\r\nWATER BY 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM SHORT-TERM\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  DALILA\r\nCOULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES CHANGES FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS WIND RADII FORECAST...WHICH WAS BASED ON THE IDEA THAT\r\nDALILA WOULD GET LARGER AS IT GOT STRONGER.  IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY\r\nTHAT THIS WILL HAPPEN.\r\n\r\nON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DALILA SHOULD PASS NEAR SOCORRO\r\nISLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 18.9N 110.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.8N 113.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 20.3N 114.9W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 20.6N 116.4W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2001\r\n \r\nDALILA HAS WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS \r\nEVEN THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER.  A 24/2010Z TRMM OVERPASS STILL INDICATED AN INTACT EYEWALL \r\nIN THE LOW-LEVELS... BUT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS TILED \r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 KT TO 65 KT FROM THE VARIOUS \r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR \r\nELSEWHERE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF DALILA IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER SOCORRO ISLAND.  THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE \r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK \r\nBETWEEN 280 AND 295 DEGREES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG \r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY \r\nSHEAR DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION MORE TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION.  THE STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH SHOULD ALSO PREVENT DALILA FROM GAINING MUCH LATITUDE.  THE \r\nCLIPER...AVN...AND UKMET MODELS WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAVE NOT \r\nHANDLED THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VERY WELL.  SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS \r\nINDICATE A FAIRLY LONG EASTERLY FETCH OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS COMING \r\nACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...SO IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THERE WILL BE MUCH... \r\nIF ANY...DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE DALILA REACHES COOLER \r\nSSTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST \r\nAFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE WIND RADII FORECASTS BASED ON A 25/00Z \r\nUPPER-AIR OBSERVATION FROM SOCORRO ISLAND...WMO 76723...WHICH \r\nINDICATED 40 TO 45 KT WINDS FROM 1000 THROUGH 12000 FT IN THE \r\nNON-CONVECTIVE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  THAT QUADRANT HAS SINCE FILLED \r\nIN WITH CONVECTION...SO THOSE STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY MAKING IT \r\nDOWN TO THE SURFACE NOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 18.8N 111.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.2N 112.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 19.6N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 115.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N 116.9W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DALILA IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND IS BEING\r\nESTIMATED LARGELY BY CONTINUITY OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED DROPPED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE\r\nTHE COLD LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN ERODING THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE GFDL\r\nINDICATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE GFDL TURNS DALILA SHARPLY NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nBUT THIS APPEARS TO BE AN ARTIFACT CAUSED BY A DISORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE VORTEX IN THE MODEL.  THE AVN SHOWS A SLIGHT AND REASONABLE BEND\r\nTO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD\r\nLOW...AND ON THIS BASIS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS YIELD 55 KT AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED \r\nTO THIS VALUE.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AN INHIBITING \r\nFACTOR...AND THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE \r\nCYCLONE HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED.  THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS \r\nDALILA ONLY VERY SLOWLY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN ANTICIPATION THAT THE \r\nSHEAR WILL LESSEN. HOWEVER THIS MODEL...GENERALLY THE BEST INTENSITY \r\nGUIDANCE WE HAVE...HAS CONSISTENTLY OVERESTIMATED THIS STORM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 19.1N 111.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 19.4N 112.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 19.9N 113.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N 115.2W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2001\r\n \r\nA NEW CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER OF DALILA OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS.  THE STORM REMAINS IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS ARE ALREADY WARMING. BASED ON THIS...AND ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...55 KT...AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN EFFECT OF THE BURST IS TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.\r\nEVEN ALLOWING FOR THE DIFFICULTY IN CENTER LOCATION...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT DALILA HAS SLOWED FURTHER WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION 285/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA CUTTING INTO THE RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nDALILA...WHICH IS THE MOST LIKELY REASON FOR THE SLOWING.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WEAK...WILL\r\nREMAIN BETWEEN DALILA AND THE TROUGH...THUS CONTINUING A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS...ALTHOUGH THE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE SPEED NOTED\r\nYESTERDAY CONTINUE TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...\r\nBUT SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nNHC91 AND CLIPER.\r\n\r\nWHILE DALILA REMAINS SHEARED...SATELLITE WINDS FROM CIMSS SUGGEST \r\nTHE SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN 24 HR AGO.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MOVES THE CYCLONE OVER 24C WATER BY 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...WITH DALILA\r\nSTARTING TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HR.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE GFDL\r\nDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN 52 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE RADII OF 12 FT SEAS HAS BEEN REDUCED SOMEWHAT BASED ON DATA\r\nFROM SHIP 9VJO ABOUT 140 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 19.2N 111.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.4N 112.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.7N 113.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 20.4N 115.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2001\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER DALILA...AND AS A\r\nRESULT THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED FROM A SHEAR PATTERN TO A CURVED\r\nBAND PATTERN.  INDEED...THERE IS CONVECTION NOW TRYING TO WRAP\r\nAROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 55 KT.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1312Z\r\nREPORTED A 50 KT WIND...ALTHOUGH THIS WAS LIKELY RAIN CONTAMINATED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH\r\nDALILA LIKELY TO REMAIN ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nNHC91 AND CLIPER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE BAM MODELS...\r\nTHE AVN...AND LBAR ALSO CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...THEY ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST\r\n12 HR...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC.\r\n \r\nIF DALILA WERE OVER WARM ENOUGH WATER...THE DECREASED SHEAR WOULD\r\nLIKELY ALLOW INTENSIFICATION.  INDEED...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL DURING THE FIRST 24 HR.  HOWEVER...\r\nDALILA IS MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY OVER COLDER WATER WHICH\r\nSHOULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE REDUCED SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED TROPICAL STORM WINDS MAY EXTEND OUTWARD\r\nUP TO 120 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nVELOCITIES IN THIS AREA ARE SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. NON-\r\nRAIN-CONTAMINATED IN OTHER PARTS OF THE STORM SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 60 N MI...AND THAT WILL BE THE RADIUS\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 19.3N 112.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.6N 113.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 114.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 20.4N 116.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.8N 117.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2001\r\n \r\nDALILA HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY AS THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS \r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH TO \r\nALLOW FOR A MORE CIRCULAR OUTFLOW PATTERN TO DEVELOP DURING THE PAST \r\n6 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...EMBEDDED CENTER \r\nPATTERN...FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY \r\nTHE UW-CIMMS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOWING A PRESSURE DECREASE \r\nDOWN TO 992 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 285/6.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL \r\nMODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF TURNING DALILA SHARPLY TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN TAKING THE CYCLONE \r\nWESTWARD AFTER THAT.  THIS TREND HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL MODEL \r\nRUNS NOW AND IT HAS YET TO OCCUR.  SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THE \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF DALILA HAS BUILT SOUTHWARD AS THE \r\nREMNANT LOW THAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERICK HAS WEAKENED AND \r\nBECOME LESS DISTINCT.  THE INCREASING EFFECT OF THE LOW- TO \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST OR \r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nBETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONSENSUS AND CLIPER...AND JUST A \r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DALILA IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...SSTS ARE STILL ABOVE \r\n27C AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DALILA COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE \r\nINTENSITY AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...ALL OF \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL \r\nEASTERLY FLOW WILL AFFECT THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...WHICH WILL \r\nINCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE AGAIN.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST SHOWS \r\nSLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN A SLIGHTLY FASTER DECREASE \r\nIN INTENSITY AFTER THAT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL AND ALSO MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 19.4N 113.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.6N 114.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.9N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 20.2N 116.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N 118.1W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 120.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2001\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM THE NRL AND NOAA/QUIKSCAT\r\nWEBSITES HAVE BEEN OF GREAT HELP TONIGHT.  SSMI IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHERE IS STILL ENOUGH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO DISPLACE THE LOW AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CENTERS BY 15-30 NM OR SO...NECESSITATING A SLIGHT\r\nREVISION TO THE RECENT TRACK.  THE MOTION HAS SLOWED FURTHER...TO\r\n290/4.  THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND ALLOW THE\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO REBUILD.  AS A RESULT THE SLOWER TRACK\r\nSHOULD ONLY BE TEMPORARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER MOTION INITIALLY...AND IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AVN...AND UKMET.\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...AND ALTHOUGH CIRCULAR...IT IS NOT\r\nSYMMETRIC ABOUT THE STORM CENTER...WITH THE CENTER STILL TO THE\r\nNORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE COLDEST TOPS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB YIELD 65 AND 55 KT...AND THE INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.\r\nWITH THE SLOWER MOTION IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO GET THE\r\nCYCLONE TO COOLER WATERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO DECLINE A\r\nLITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...WHICH WAS REBUKED IN THIS SPACE 24 HOURS AGO FOR\r\nOVERESTIMATING DELILAS INTENSITY...HAS PERFORMED WELL IN RECENT\r\nRUNS...AND SUGGESTS AN EVEN SLOWER DECAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 19.6N 113.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.8N 113.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.1N 114.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 115.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N 117.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 120.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-07-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2001\r\n\r\nDALILA HAS SHOW ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT TOPS ARE NOW WARMING.  OVERALL...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS 24 HR AGO.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT...55 KT...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOWERED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/5.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DISCUSSION IS\r\nPROBABLY STARTING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...AS DALILA REMAINS\r\nSOUTH OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH A MID/UPPER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nTROUGH TO LIFT OUT AND THE RIDGE TO SOMEWHAT STRENGTHEN.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE DALILA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK.  GIVEN\r\nTHAT THIS SCENARIO LOOKS PRETTY STRAIGHT FORWARD...NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW A REMARKABLY LARGE SPREAD.  THE AVN SHOWS A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE\r\nBAMS AND NHC91E SHOW A MUCH FASTER WESTERLY MOTION...WHILE BAMD AND\r\nLBAR SHOW A MUCH FASTER WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  SINCE FAST AND\r\nNORTHWEST FORECASTS HAVE NOT BEEN VERIFYING FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nDAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS SLOW\r\nMOTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CENTER IS STILL OVER 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE CLOUD WINDS FROM CIMSS SHOW AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SURGE APPROACHING DALILA.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND\r\nTHIS IS REFLECTED IN SHIPS GUIDANCE.  WHILE THE SURGE MAY DIMINISH\r\nAFTER 24 HR...BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER 25C WATER...\r\nCOOLING TO 23C BY 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW\r\nWEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...WITH A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.  DALILA SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING BY 72 HR.  OF COURSE...\r\nTHAT IS WHAT THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY SAID.\r\n\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 19.9N 114.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.2N 114.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N 115.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.9N 117.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 21.3N 118.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2001\r\n \r\nDALILA HAS FORMED A LARGE CDO-LIKE FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE STRONGEST\r\n-80C CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA ARE 65 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...AND THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION IS NOW 290/7.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN EITHER THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY OR THE MODEL SPREAD DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\n24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST.  THE TRACK IS\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER.\r\n\r\nDALILA IS STILL UNDERGOING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THE \r\nEFFECTS OF THIS SEEM TO BE LIMITED TO SOME EROSION OF CONVECTION IN\r\nTHE EASTER SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES...DALILA SHOULD BE OVER 24C-25C WATER IN 24 HR\r\nAND 23C IN 72 HR.  ONCE THIS HAPPENS...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nOCCUR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 20.2N 114.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 20.6N 116.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.1N 117.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 119.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 21.8N 121.1W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 22.0N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2001\r\n \r\nDALILA CONTINUES TO GENERATE PULSES IN THE CDO PATTERN LIKE IT HAS \r\nTHE PAST 3 NIGHTS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS AT NIGHT AND THEN \r\nINCREASES AGAIN DURING THE DAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS \r\nBASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...T3.5...FROM \r\nTAFB AND AFWA...AND 65 KT...T4.0 EMBEDDED CENTER...FROM SAB.  THE \r\nINTENSITY WAS HELD AT 55 KT SINCE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN HAS NOT \r\nBEEN PERSISTING FOR MORE THAN A COUPLE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  DURING \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...THE MOTION HAS BEEN CLOSER TO 275 DEGREES.  THE \r\nINITIAL POSITION WAS KEPT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE SATELLITE FIX \r\nPOSITIONS TO SMOOTH OUT THE SHEAR-INDUCED WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK \r\nPHILOSOPHY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED \r\nABOUT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD. IN FACT...THE AVN MODEL IS NOW THE SOUTHERNMOST OF ALL THE \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS AND JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIOEND VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DALILA CONTINUES TO HAVE A \r\nDISTINCT DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.  ANOTHER SURGE IN THE EASTERLY \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW CAN BE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY PASSING SOCORRO \r\nISLAND.  THAT SURGE SHOULD BE IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE \r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR LESS.  AS SUCH...SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS \r\nFORECAST SINCE DALILA WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SST WATER IN \r\n6 TO 12 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST INTENSITY TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 20.2N 115.9W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 20.6N 117.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 21.3N 120.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.4N 121.2W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/08 AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOUR UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 55 KNOTS\r\nFROM KGWC.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nREDUCED TO 50 KNOTS.  NEAR BY SSTS ARE ABOUT 25 DEGREES C AND\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...SIMILAR\r\nTO THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 20.2N 116.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 118.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.9N 119.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 21.2N 121.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 21.5N 124.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION VANISHED OVERNIGHT BUT THERE IS ONE SMALL\r\nCONVECTIVE AREA DEVELOPING AS WE SPEAK.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nREDUCED TO 40 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...WIND\r\nESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER.  DALILA IS OVER COOL WATER AND\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT...AS USUAL...SOME INTERMITTENT CONVECTION\r\nMAY DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nDALILA IS MOVING 280 AT 9 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST \r\nTO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. A TURN MORE TO THE \r\nWEST..STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IS LIKELY AS THE SYSTEM \r\nBECOMES SHALLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 20.7N 118.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N 119.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 22.0N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N 126.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 27 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES DURING THE DAY REVEALED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE POSITION INDICATED THIS MORNING.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED AND THE OVERALL MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE ABOUT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.  THIS WOULD BRING THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INCREASINGLY COOL WATERS.  CONSEQUENTLY...DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE A\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS SOON.  SOME INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.  DALILA COULD TURN MORE TO THE\r\nWEST..STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 21.3N 118.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N 119.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N 122.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 27 2001\r\n \r\nDALILA IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS\r\nOVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...BASED ON CONSTRAINTS IN THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE.  IN DEFERENCE TO THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  A DMSP SSM/I OVERPASS AROUND 05Z\r\nSHOULD BE ABLE TO SHED SOME LIGHT ON JUST HOW STRONG THE SURFACE\r\nWINDS ARE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/9.  RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF DALILA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK INTO COLDER\r\nWATER UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 21.8N 119.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 22.3N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 22.8N 121.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 28 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08.  GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE A \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...FROM \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL STEERING OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW \r\nLEVEL CLOUD SWIRL.  A 0226Z QUIKSCAT PASS WITH LITTLE RAIN \r\nCONTAMINATION SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS HIGHER THAT 25 KTS WHILE DVORAK \r\nINTENSITIES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND \r\nSPEED IS DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS.  WITH COOL SSTS...ALL GUIDANCE \r\nSUGGESTS DISSIPATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 22.2N 120.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 22.7N 121.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.7N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 22.7N 124.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":31,"Date":"2001-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 28 2001\r\n \r\nDALILA HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCING\r\nSPORADIC THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 22.5N 121.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 22.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2001\r\n\r\nAN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED \r\nOVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED A \r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION COINCIDENT WITH A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CIRCULATION\r\nAND ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED...THERE IS PLENTY \r\nOF IT.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION \r\nNUMBER FOUR.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH OF A PAST TRACK TO HELP DETERMINE THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION.  THE ESTIMATE IS 300/03 BASED ON LOOKING AT A 24 HOUR \r\nINFRARED LOOP.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nMOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A VERY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT \r\n72 HOURS WHICH LIMITS THE INTENSIFICATION TO ONLY 45 KNOTS...IN \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 13.7N 117.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.0N 117.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N 118.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.0N 119.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.8N 121.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 123.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 20 2001\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nMAIN CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR.\r\nHOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG.  THEREFORE...A SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOL WATERS IN ABOUT\r\n2 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ABOUT 310/10...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF\r\nWEAKER STEERING CURRENTS CAUSED BY A TROUGH ALONG 125W.  MOST OF THE\r\nNUMERICAL MODELS RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY SLOWING\r\nDOWN THE SYSTEM AND...SOME OF THEM...SUGGEST A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THE\r\nSAME WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 15.0N 118.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 119.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 121.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 122.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N 124.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 125.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-07-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED TO ADD DISSIPATING AT 72 HR FORECAST TIME...\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E REMAINS LARGE AND DISORGANIZED WITH A\r\nDIFFICULT TO FIND CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0210Z AND GLIMPSES\r\nOF THE CENTER ON MULTISPECTRAL INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT IT\r\nIS STILL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...MEANING\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS\r\n30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE ARE FAINT HINTS OF THIS\r\nFEATURE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT\r\nTHIS WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MODEL\r\nAGREEMENT ENDS THERE.  THE LBAR...BAMD...BAMM...AND NHC91 MOVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.  THE GFDL...THE\r\nUKMET...THE NOGAPS...AND THE AVN ALL CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE\r\nCENTER IS...THERE WILL BE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PARALLEL TO AND SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF THAT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING STEADILY INTO COOLER WATER AND THUS IS\r\nRUNNING OUT OF TIME IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSTILL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY PEAKING AT 36 HR.  BY 72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES \r\nTHE CYCLONE OVER 22C WATER...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO START\r\nDISSIPATING.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE WESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPS...THE\r\nCYCLONE WOULD STAY OVER SOMEWHAT WARMER WATER AND COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 15.3N 119.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.2N 120.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 17.3N 121.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 18.2N 123.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N 124.6W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-07-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A \r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION \r\nWHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH PERHAPS A SLOWING OF \r\nTHE FOREWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS \r\nCLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A \r\nSOMEWHAT ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE \r\nCENTER IS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION OR DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.  ALSO \r\nSAB AND KGWC ESTIMATES ARE BELOW STORM STRENGTH.  WITH THIS \r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS.  WITH \r\nCOLDER SSTS AHEAD...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 15.6N 119.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N 120.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.4N 123.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-07-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES \r\nTO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE \r\nSTORM WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FOREWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT STORM STRENGTH \r\nAND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN UNCONTAMINATED 35 KNOT WIND \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A \r\nTROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS TOWARD COLDER WATER AND THE \r\nINTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO GO MUCH HIGHER BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS.\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 16.5N 120.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.2N 121.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 18.5N 124.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.9N 124.8W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-07-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION\r\nSURROUNDED BY TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS AND LACKS OF AN INNER CORE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AS SUGGESTED BY T-NUMBERS AND\r\nTHE FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 40 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...ERICK IS\r\nRUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE IT IS ABOUT 24 HOURS\r\nFROM COOL WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  BY\r\nTHEN...ERICK SHOULD BE DISSIPATING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 17.3N 121.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.3N 123.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-07-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n \r\nCONVECTION WITH ERICK IS RATHER LIMITED AND WEAKENING.  SATELLITE \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 35 KT.  SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER \r\nSHOWS STRENGTHENING AND NEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WATER \r\nTEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND \r\nERICK IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEFORE THE \r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...BUT WITH HINTS \r\nOF A DECREASE IN SPEED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SOME ADDITIONAL \r\nSLOWING MAY OCCUR...PARTICULARLY IF ENOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS TO \r\nALLOW MID-LEVEL STEERING.  A TURN TO THE WEST IN ACCORD WITH SHALLOW \r\nSTEERING IS LIKELY AFTER THE CONVECTION DISAPPEARS.  THE AVIATION \r\nMODEL INDICATES MUCH MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 17.9N 122.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.8N 123.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N 125.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-07-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT FAIRLY LIMITED AND WEAK \r\nCONVECTION...BUT STILL HAS SOME BANDING FEATURES.  ERICK IS \r\nMAINTAINED AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY...CONSISTENT \r\nWITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER \r\n25 DEG C WATERS...AND COOLER WATERS ARE AHEAD.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM \r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO NEAR DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO \r\nBE REDUCED TO A NON-CONVECTIVE...REMNANT...LOW BY THE END OF THE \r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...310/12...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT AS ERICK \r\nCOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 18.9N 123.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.7N 124.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 20.4N 126.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 129.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-07-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERICK IS NOT VERY\r\nABUNDANT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED.\r\nSATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.  ERICK HAS A \r\nFAIRLY LARGE-SIZED CIRCULATION AND SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN \r\nDOWN OVER THE COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN \r\nINTO A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS BECOMING DIVERGENT BUT THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE \r\nSTEERED INCREASINGLY MORE BY SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BENDS THE TRACK \r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM...BUT NOT AS \r\nFAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 19.5N 125.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.2N 126.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.9N 128.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 21.3N 129.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 131.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-07-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2001\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE \r\nCLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS \r\nAT 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 \r\nKT...T2.5...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  DUE TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN...ERICK LIKELY IS NOT AS VERTICALLY DEEP AS IT WAS EARLIER\r\nAND IS NOW BEING STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS...BUT\r\nDIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE\r\nSTEERED INCREASINGLY MORE BY SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAFTER THAT.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM...BUT NOT AS FAST.\r\nIN FACT...THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASED TO ABOUT 4 KT IN 48 HOURS\r\nAS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ENTANGLED IN THE LARGE COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUD FIELD TO THE NORTH AND WEST.\r\n\r\nERICK IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUED TO MOVE OVER \r\nCOOLER WATER AND ENTRAINS COOL STABLE AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 19.6N 126.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 127.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 20.4N 129.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 130.7W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 21.1N 132.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.5N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ERICK REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED BUT THE TOPS\r\nCONTINUE TO COOL.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND\r\n35 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 03Z STILL SHOWED 35 KT\r\nWINDS...A BIT SURPRISING GIVEN THE COLD WATER...AND SO THE SYSTEM IS\r\nKEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO \r\nTHE REASONING OR TRACK OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ERICK SHOULD \r\nBEGIN TO TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS THE \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER 22-23 DEGREE WATER.\r\n\r\nAS THE CYCLONE ENTRAINS MORE COOL STABLE AIR IT SHOULD SPIN DOWN... \r\nBUT GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION THIS SPIN-DOWN MAY TAKE A \r\nWHILE.  ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW WITHIN \r\n24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 20.1N 127.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 20.6N 128.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N 130.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 21.3N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 133.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 135.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erick","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n\r\nERICK IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  AS SUCH IT IS UNCLASSIFIABLE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nSINCE A DATA T-NUMBER CAN NO LONGER BE ASSIGNED.  ALTHOUGH\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA MORE THAN 12 HOURS AGO SHOWED SOME SPOTS OF 35 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS IN THE SYSTEM...IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nSPUN DOWN FURTHER SINCE THEN...AND THAT IT IS NOW BELOW STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AS THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SUB-CRITICAL SSTS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  NONETHELESS\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...AND CLOSE TO THE 06Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 20.5N 127.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 129.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 21.3N 130.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 132.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erick","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n \r\nERICK CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND HAS BEEN\r\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ALL DAY. IN REALITY...THIS SYSTEM NO \r\nLONGER MEETS THE FORMAL CRITERION FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 14Z SHOWED 30 KNOT WINDS IN THE \r\nCIRCULATION AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  ERICK IS \r\nCONTINUING TO WEAKEN AND ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER \r\nTONIGHT.\r\n\r\nA SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST...SIMILAR \r\nTO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE NCEP AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS.  \r\nTHIS IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 20.9N 128.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 21.3N 129.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 131.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 133.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erick","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2001\r\n \r\nERICK IS ESSENTIALLY A LARGE WELL-ORGANIZED SWIRL OF LOW- AND \r\nMID-LEVEL CLOUDS...BUT IS DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.\r\nAS SUCH...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED \r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE \r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO \r\nTHE NORTH OF ERICK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL AVILABLE MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE AND THE OFFICAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND NOGAPS \r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON ERICK.  ADDITIONAL \r\nFORECAST INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS \r\nFORECASTS (AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC) ISSUED \r\nBY THE TPC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH (TAFB).\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 21.2N 128.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 129.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.7N 131.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 21.8N 132.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 21.9N 133.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 22 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR \r\n136W HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE IS A GOOD LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH RAGGED DEEP CONVECTION \r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS \r\nTIME.  LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE IS NOW CROSSING \r\nTHE 25C SST ISOTHERM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE DISSIPATING OVER \r\nCOOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NNW NEAR 11 KT AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH \r\nJUST WEST OF 140W.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERALLY \r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AT 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF MEDIUM TO SHALLOW LAYER BAM \r\nSTEERING.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 18.9N 136.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.3N 137.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.3N 137.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 22 2001\r\n \r\nTHE MOST RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE IMAGES\r\nALSO SUGGEST A DE-COUPLING OF THE MID LEVEL CENTER FROM THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER...INDICATIVE OF SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EXISTENCE OF THIS SHEAR AHEAD OF A\r\nFAIRLY SHARP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF 140W.\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...WHICH FORECASTS DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330/10 KT. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT \r\nIN FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION AT 10-15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK TOWARDS THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 19.5N 136.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.8N 137.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 23.2N 137.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 25.7N 137.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 28.5N 137.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 23 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/14.  TD S-X-E HAS TRACKED NORTH \r\nOR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS CHANGED \r\nLITTLE.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OWING TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY \r\nFORECASTS OR REASONINGS. TD SIX-E IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW \r\nAND SHOULD TRACK NORTHWARD OVER COLDER WATER AND BEGIN DISSIPATING \r\nIN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 21.0N 136.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 22.6N 137.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N 137.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.7N 137.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 30.4N 137.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 23 2001\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF \r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER.  THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE \r\nSLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN OVER INCREASING COOLER \r\nWATERS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 20.4N 138.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 139.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 140.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 25.0N 140.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 23 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION.  ONE\r\nBURST APPEARED AND THEN FADED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND ANOTHER\r\nBURST IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS PROVIDING SOME\r\nDIFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THIS IS ALSO A\r\nSHEARING FLOW IT MAY BE HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION\r\nWHILE THE CENTER IS OVER 24C WATER.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 25 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS RATHER BROAD IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND THIS MAKES\r\nAN EXACT LOCATION RATHER DIFFICULT.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nMOTION IS 310/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CAUSED BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND IT\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD CURVE INTO THE WEAKNESS UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 21.0N 138.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 22.1N 139.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 23.7N 140.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 25.5N 140.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 23 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE.  VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBECOMING ELONGATED...AND IS STARTING TO RESEMBLE A SHEAR AXIS.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE NEAREST CONVECTION IS 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nILL-DEFINED CENTER...DIMINISHING...AND BEING SHEARED AWAY TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER\r\nTHE SYSTEM ARE 24C AND EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY COOL...THEREFORE\r\nREGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.  A BROAD \r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 21.3N 137.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N 137.6W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 22.7N 137.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\t\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OFF THE \r\nSOUTHEST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE IS GOOD \r\nROTATION...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.    \r\nALSO...A TRMM SATELLITE OVERPASS AT 311 UTC INDICATE THAT A \r\nPOORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS DEVELOPED.  THE SYSTEM IS \r\nBEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR OVER THE AREA APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK AND THE SST IS NEAR 29 \r\nDEG C.  THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL WIND \r\nSPEED FORECAST IS RATHER CONSERVATIVE...OWING TO THE UNCERTAINTIES \r\nIN INTENSITY PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nAT FIRST GLANCE...THE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS...AVN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS...ALL SHOW A PRONOUNCED \r\n500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER THESE SAME MODELS REFUSE TO MOVE THE \r\nCYCLONE VERY MUCH TO THE WEST.  APPARENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO \r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.  THUS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE \r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COULD COUNTERACT \r\nTHE WESTWARD STEERING DUE TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN PARTIAL \r\nDEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE \r\nFORWARD MOTION SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 19.1N 108.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.6N 110.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 112.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING \r\nAND IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF \r\n30 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...30 \r\nKT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE \r\nEARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES WERE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE \r\nCLOUD SHIELD...WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.  A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO \r\nHAVE REFORMED FURTHER WEST NEAR A CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS THAT IS \r\nBEGINNING TO TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE OF A CDO.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9.  THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE TAKES THE DEPRESSION IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR \r\nWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNS THE \r\nSYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  THE OUTLIERS ARE THE \r\nGFDL...WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE DUE NORTH INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA \r\nAND THEN ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA...AND NOGAPS WHICH HOLDS THE DEPRESSION \r\nNEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF BAJA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  BOTH \r\nSOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE MID- \r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN \r\nMEXICO...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD \r\nTRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE STEERING FLOW \r\nWEAKENS AS A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN IS \r\nFORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE U.S. WEST COAST AND ERODE THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF T.D. 7-E.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR\r\nREASONING.  SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE PERIOD.  OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE CYCLONE\r\nTRACKS WESTWARD AND BECOMES EMBEDDED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nITS WEST AND A DIGGING UPPER-TROUGH TO ITS EAST.  MY MAIN CONCERN IS\r\nHOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE COOLER WATER TO THE NORTHWEST WILL HAVE ON\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  T.D.  7-E IS CURRENTLY OVER 29C SSTS AND IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN OVER 26C OR HIGHER SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  IF MOST OF\r\nTHE INFLOW COMES FROM THE SOUTH AND A CDO DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTER\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HAVE TO\r\nBE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 19.9N 110.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N 111.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.4N 113.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.3N 114.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 20.2N 115.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE... \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.\r\nTHIS SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING FEATURES TO BE UPGRADED TO A \r\nTROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...T2.5...FROM BOTH \r\nTAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE SOUTHEAST AND FAIR \r\nELSEWHERE.  34-KT RADII ON THE SOUTH SIDE ARE BASED ON EARLIER \r\nREPORTS FROM SOCORRO ISLAND INDICATING ONLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE \r\nAMONG THE VARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS WITH SOME TAKING FLOSSIE QUICKLY \r\nTO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOME TAKE THE CYCLONE \r\nNORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE AVN TAKING FLOSSIE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST... \r\nWHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS GENERALLY KEEP FLOSSIE NEARLY \r\nSTATIONARY OR MAKE A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND SOCORRO ISLAND FOR \r\n36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TAKE IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER THAT.  THE \r\nGFDL CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS IN TAKING FLOSSIE TO THE NORTHEAST \r\nAND THEN NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  NOGAPS AND \r\nTHE UKMET APPEAR TO HAVE FLOSSIE CAUGHT IN SOME LARGER-SCALE \r\nCYCLONIC GYRE THAT IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE \r\nMOMENT. GIVEN THE SUPERIOR PERFORMANCE OF THE AVN IN THE NORTHEAST \r\nPACIFIC SO FAR THIS YEAR...THE OFFICAL TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN \r\nAND TURNED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO THE \r\nSTRENGTH OF THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE \r\nSOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD SINCE THE \r\nCENTER OF FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 26C. \r\nHOWEVER... THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATER JUST TO THE NORTHWEST \r\nMAY INHIBIT THE MORE TYPICAL STRENGTHENING TREND OF 20 KT...OR ONE \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBER...PER DAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...BUT THEN SLOWS \r\nDOWN INTENSIFCATION BY ONLY BRINGING FLOSSIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH \r\nIN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 20.2N 111.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 113.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N 114.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.4N 115.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 26 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nDIVERGENT.  THE AVIATION MODEL MOVES THE STORM WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS PRESUMABLY INFLUENCED BY A\r\nSTRONG 500 MB RIDGE TO ITS NORTH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD.\r\nIN CONTRAST THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL MOVE THE STORM\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD...IMPLYING THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH DOES NOT\r\nPLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE.  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED\r\nTOWARD THE AVIATION MODEL.  THE PRESENT FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE OTHER\r\nMODELS BUT STILL GIVES LOTS OF WEIGHT TO THE AVIATION MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS TO COME AND GO.  AT THE MOMENT A SMALL\r\nCONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR AND WEST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP THE CURRENT WIND\r\nSPEED AT 35 KNOTS.  RECENT TRMM...SSMI AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT DO\r\nNOT SHOW VERY WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  SO FLOSSIE HAS\r\nNOT QUITE GOT ITS ACT TOGETHER...UNLESS IT IS JUST STARTING TO DO \r\nSO.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 69 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS UNDER \r\nLIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  ALL OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS FOR MUCH \r\nLOWER WIND SPEEDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO 65 KNOTS...SLIGHTLY \r\nLESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT HIGHER THAN THE SHIFOR...UKMET... \r\nGFDL AND AVIATION INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 20.2N 112.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 20.4N 113.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.8N 115.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 20.9N 116.2W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FLOSSIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  \r\nTHERE IS GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST \r\nAND EAST.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVE \r\n45 KNOTS.  ASIDE FROM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE \r\nENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THAT \r\nFROM THE SHIPS MODEL.  IF THIS VERIFIES FLOSSIE WOULD BECOME THE \r\nFIRST EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE IN ABOUT A MONTH...AN UNUSUAL PERIOD OF \r\nINACTIVITY.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS MAINLY WESTWARD...270/9.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE \r\nCONFLICTING.  HOWEVER THE U.K. MET AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE SHIFTED \r\nWESTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...LEAVING THE GFDL AS THE \r\nOUTLIER IN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARD BAJA.  FLOSSIE APPEARS TO BE \r\nEMBEDDED IN A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE...WHICH IN TURN \r\nIS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED RIDGE.  THE AVIATION MODEL \r\nINDICATES THAT THE GYRE WILL MOVE WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE \r\nTROPICAL STORM WITH IT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS \r\nIDEA...AND SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE \r\nTO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 20.0N 113.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 115.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 116.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE REMAINING A \r\nCOMPACT SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND \r\nSAB.  THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT \r\nOF A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS.  UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  ALL THE NHC GUIDANCE... \r\nEXCEPT FOR THE GFDL MODEL...IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN TAKING \r\nFLOSSIE SLOWLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN \r\nDIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STALL \r\nTHE SYSTEM AND THEN DRIFT IT NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE BAM \r\nMODELS TAKE FLOSSIE QUICKLY TO THE WEST.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO \r\nSTRUGGLE AND TAKES FLOSSIE BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD \r\nACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THAT THE GFDL HAS BEEN DOING \r\nTHAT FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...THAT SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH \r\n48 HOURS... AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF TRACK AND SLOWER AT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COOLER SSTS TO THE NORTH... \r\nSO STEADY BUT SLOW INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER.  THE \r\nIMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALSO AID FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  THE \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES LESS THAN 10 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND BRINGS FLOSSIE TO 75 KT IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 20.2N 113.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.1N 115.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 116.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N 116.8W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 117.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO \r\nDEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS \r\nBASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 \r\nKT...T4.0...FROM TAFB AND THE APPEARANCE OF THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE.  \r\nTHE EYE FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT EARLIER IN 27/1335Z SSMI MICROWAVE \r\nIMAGERY.   UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE \r\nOVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/5.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  FLOSSIE HAS FINALLY MADE \r\nTHE TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THAT THE AVN HAS BEEN ADVERTISING FOR \r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE BAM MODELS ALSO NOW \r\nAGREE ON THIS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT NOGAPS TURNS FLOSSIE BACK TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO \r\nNOGAPS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE OF THE AVN MODEL \r\nAND AGREEMENT BY THE LATEST UKMET RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK \r\nCALLS FOR FLOSSIE TO REMAIN ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nAS FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM COOLER SSTS...SOME STEADY \r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE.  THE EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN \r\nSHOULD ALSO AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL BRINGS FLOSSIE TO 86 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND THIS DEVELOPMENT \r\nTREND WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 19.8N 114.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.6N 114.6W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 19.4N 115.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.3N 115.8W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 19.2N 116.4W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 117.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2001\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE IS MOVING 230/05.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE \r\nDIVERGENT WITH MOTIONS VARYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE \r\nMAIN THING HERE IS THAT THE SPEED OF MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE VERY \r\nSLOW. .  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT FOR \r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS AS SUPPORTED BY 65 KNOT SATELLITE \r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFGWC.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW \r\nEXCELLENT BANDING AND A SMALL DEE[ CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER. \r\n THE FORECAST IS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 85 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR AND SSTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 19.4N 114.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N 114.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 18.9N 116.3W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.9N 117.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 19.1N 117.7W    80 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001\r\n\r\nAFTER LOOKING LESS ORGANIZED FOR A TIME...FLOSSIE IS MAKING A\r\nCOMEBACK WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM\r\nSPOT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 65 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 220/4.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF FLOSSIE WHICH IS LIKELY\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THE ANTICYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO\r\nTHIS SCENARIO BY IMITATING SPOKES ON A WHEEL.  THE NHC 91 MOVES\r\nTHE HURRICANE SOUTHWEST...THE UKMET AND BAMS WEST...LBAR AND\r\nBAMM WEST-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH...THE AVN NORTH THEN NORTHWEST...\r\nTHE GFDL NORTH...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDN NORTHEAST.  THIS KIND OF\r\nSPREAD USUALLY MEANS SLOW MOTION...AND THAT IS WHAT THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR.  IN THE SHORT TERM...FLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE.  THIS\r\nSHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE\r\nANTICYCLONE WEAKENS.  THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nFLOSSIE IS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO\r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FLOSSIE TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR\r\n36 TO 48 HR...AND THUS CALLS FOR STRENGHTENING IN A FORECASTED\r\nLIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...ANY QUICKER NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nWOULD MEAN A WEAKER FLOSSIE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 19.0N 114.5W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 18.5N 115.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N 117.1W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHILE \r\nREMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS \r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT \r\n...T4.0... AND A 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT... \r\nODT4.5...FROM TAFB.  HOWEVER...THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME CLOUD \r\nCOVERED AGAIN...SO THE INTENSITY WAS ONLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY.\r\n\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/2.  FLOSSIE HAS BEEN STATIONARY \r\nOR HAS MADE A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS.  \r\nHOWEVER... RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT FLOSSIE MAY BE \r\nDRIFTING WESTWARD NOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A \r\nRATHER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF \r\nFLOSSIE ...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS...WITH THE UKMET \r\nMODEL TAKING FLOSSIE WESTWARD AND NOGAPS TAKING THE CYCLONE \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE AVN AND BAM MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN \r\nTHE UKMET-NOGAPS SPREAD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK KEEPS FLOSSIE ON A \r\nGENERAL SLOW WESTWARD TRACK AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND BETWEEN THE UKMET AND AVN SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE REMAINS NEAR THE EDGE OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO\r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  IF FLOSSIE \r\nREMAINS OVER WARM WATER...THEN SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE.  HOWEVER...THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED MAY ALSO CREATE COLD \r\nUPWELLING UNDER THE CENTER IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ACT \r\nTO HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION OR EVEN BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL \r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 19.1N 114.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 19.1N 114.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.2N 115.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.3N 115.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.4N 116.3W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.  AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF \r\n70 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE OF 65 KT...T4.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 3-HOUR \r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT...ODT4.2...FROM TAFB.  THE EYE \r\nFEATURE HAS INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT \r\nHAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND LESS CLOUD-FILLED DURING PAST \r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT \r\nSLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/3.  FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING \r\nSLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THE PAST 6 HOURS...PROBABLY DUE TO AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS POSITIONED ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF \r\nFLOSSIE.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS \r\nCOMPUTER MODELS FROM THE OUTSET AND RANGE FROM FAST WEST MOTION BY \r\nTHE BAM MODELS TO NORTHEAST MOTION BY NOGAPS AND THE GFDN MODELS. \r\nTHE GFDL TAKES THE CYCLONE DUE NORTH AND CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A \r\nBAJA LANDFALL AFTER 72 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND AVN TAKE FLOSSIE \r\nSLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD \r\nAFTER THAT.  THE UKMET AND AVN SOLUTIONS APPEAR MORE REASONABLE... \r\nJUST A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THE \r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYERED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF \r\nFLOSSIE...WHICH SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.  THE \r\nSMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT PASSED NEAR FLOSSIE AND IS CURRENTLY \r\nLOCATED JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nOR SOUTHWARD.  THE RESULT SHOULD BE A RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD \r\nMOTION AFTER ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NORTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND SOUTH OF THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS CREATED SOME WEAK \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS FLOSSIE TODAY.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SMALL UPPER-LOW HAS WEAKENED OR SHEARED \r\nOUT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND AGAIN \r\nIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER SMALL UPPER-LEVEL \r\nLOW LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BAJA THAT APPEARS TO BE ACTING AS A MASS \r\nSINK FOR THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH.  GIVEN THE SMALL BUT IMPRESSIVE \r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER \r\n28C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS \r\nPROBABLE.  BY 48 HOURS...THE SLOW MOTION OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER \r\nAND POSSIBLE COLD UPWELLING SHOULD HELP TO BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING \r\nTREND.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 19.5N 114.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N 115.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.9N 115.7W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N 116.2W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.4N 116.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2001\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING 310/5 THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...LIKELY IN \r\nRESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WHICH EXTENDS FROM \r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE \r\nDEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH HAD BEEN PUSHING FLOSSIE TO THE SOUTHWEST \r\n18-24 HOURS AGO NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST AND WEAKENING \r\nSLIGHTLY...ALLOWING FOR THE CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO EXERT A GREATER \r\nINFLUENCE ON THE STORM MOTION. \r\n\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS HAVE RESPONDED WITH A \r\nSLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS. ACCORDINGLY...THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nPACKAGE...BUT IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF ALL THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL \r\nMODELS.  \r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN NOTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND \r\nIN FACT THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A STEADY T4.0 \r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA FROM 24 HOURS AGO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nKEPT AT 70 KT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE ONLY CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO PEAK THE SYSTEM AT \r\n75 KT IN 12 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. SOME WEAKENING SHOULD \r\nTAKE PLACE BY 72 HOURS AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER MARGINAL 26C SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 19.9N 115.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.2N 115.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 116.1W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.9N 116.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 21.3N 117.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.9N 117.8W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2001\r\n\r\nFLOSSY IS PRESENTING AN IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  A WARM\r\nSPOT OR RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 310/5...ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST WOBBLE MAY BE OCCURRING.  FLOSSIE\r\nIS BETWEEN A LARGE BUT WEAKENING DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSTORM.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT SLOW\r\nMOTION...BUT IN WHAT DIRECTION?  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...WHILE NOT\r\nAS BADLY SPREAD AS LAST NIGHT...STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE.\r\nTHE RIGHT OUTLIER IS THE GFDN...WHICH WANTS TO TAKE THE STORM\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE LEFT OUTLIERS ARE BAMS AND BAMM...WHICH CALL FOR\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  GIVEN THAT FLOSSIE STILL SEEMS TO BE ON\r\nOR CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...\r\nNHC91...AND THE AVN.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE UKMET STARTS WITH A\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION AND THEN TURNS THE STORM WESTWARD.  THIS TRACK\r\nCOULD OCCUR IF FLOSSIE WEAKENS FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER COOLER\r\nWATER.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE IS STILL OVER 27C-28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOWS\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS AND THE RECENT\r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTION INDICATE THAT SOME STRENGTHENING MAY\r\nOCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR MAY INCREASE OVER FLOSSIE BY 36 TO 48 HR...AND THIS COMBINED\r\nWITH COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD CHANGE THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING TREND TO A WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AFTER 36 HOURS BASED ON THE FORECAST\r\nOF INCREASED SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 20.3N 115.6W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 20.6N 116.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 21.4N 117.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 21.8N 117.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 22.5N 118.4W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED AND ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON \r\nA BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...T4.5... \r\nFROM TAFB AND 90 KT...T5.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.  EVEN THOUGH \r\nFLOSSIE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE... THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN 300/10.  I FEEL THAT THIS HAS BEEN A \r\nSHORT-LIVED MOTION THAT WAS PROBABLY INDUCED BY A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL \r\nLOW THAT MOVED SOUTH OF FLOSSIE.  THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE NOW \r\nSHEARED OUT INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AND FLOSSIE SHOULD BEGIN \r\nSLOWING DOWN SHORTLY.  THERE IS FAR LESS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE \r\nVARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS TODAY AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS 4 DAYS \r\nWORTH OF MODEL RUNS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS TAKE FLOSSIE SLOWLY \r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY \r\nOUTLIERS ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS...WHICH TAKE THE CYCLONE \r\nSLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE AVN AND UKMET HAVE \r\nCONTINUED THEIR TREND OF TAKING FLOSSIE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 TO \r\n48 HOURS AND THEN MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT.  HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS \r\nARE ALREADY RIGHT OF TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT \r\nOR SOUTH OF THE AVN-UKMET CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH FLOSSIE BEING \r\nFORCED WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE AND \r\nWELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC GYRE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE REMAINS OVER 27C-28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND COULD \r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER... THE \r\nEXPECTED SLOW MOTION MAY INDUCE SOME COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE \r\nCYCLONE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME VERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE \r\nOVER FLOSSIE BY 36 TO 48 HR...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS... \r\nA SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD DEVELOP.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS AT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 20.7N 116.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 21.3N 117.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 21.6N 118.1W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 21.8N 118.9W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...CI5.0...FROM ALL \r\nTHREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF \r\nODT4.8 TO ODT5.1. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE \r\nIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE MAJORITY OF THE \r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING FLOSSIE SLOWLY \r\nNORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THEN \r\nDIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.  THE UKMET AND AVN HAVE BEEN THE \r\nMOST RELIABLE MODELS AND THEY CONTINUE THE TREND OF TAKING FLOSSIE \r\nMORE WESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION WAS MAINTAINED IN THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS TAKE FLOSSIE SLOWLY TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST WHILE THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR MODELS ACCELERATE FLOSSIE \r\nNORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THOSE \r\nSOLUTIONS WERE DISCOUNTED BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN TO \r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF FLOSSIE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE \r\nSYSTEM MOVING IN A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE \r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS LIKELY PEAKED AND A SLOW WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN BY \r\nABOUT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER \r\nWATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH INDICATES \r\nTHAT FLOSSIE WILL BE MOVING SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 21.2N 116.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 21.5N 117.3W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 21.9N 117.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 22.2N 118.7W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 22.4N 119.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A WEAKENING TREND AS SUGGESTED BY \r\nDECREASING CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ON LATEST SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE \r\nDECREASING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BROUGHT DOWN TO 80 KT AT THIS \r\nTIME. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS FLOSSIE MOVES OVER COOLER \r\nWATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.    \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK AS A \r\nDEEP LAYER RIDGE NW OF FLOSSIE MOVES WEST AND WEAKENS THROUGH THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWEST TO \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER....A TURN \r\nMORE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES \r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ON THE \r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENSEMBLE...AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET SOLUTION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 21.7N 117.4W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 22.3N 118.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 22.9N 119.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 23.3N 119.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 23.5N 120.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 24.0N 121.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2001\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE IS NOW OVER WATER LESS THAN 26C AND IS OBVIOUSLY FEELING\r\nTHE EFFECTS.  WHILE AN EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL APPARENT\r\nIN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CONVECTION IS WEAKER THAN 24 HR AGO\r\nAND SHOWING NO SIGNS OF THE INCREASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED ABOUT\r\nTHIS TIME THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nINITIAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  FLOSSIE IS BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES...\r\nAND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FLOSSIE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY NORTHWEST\r\nFOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL \r\nWESTWARD TURN AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME\r\nPREDOMINANT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO FORM WEST OF CALIFORNIA BY 48-72 HR...AND\r\nSEVERAL NHC GUIDANCE MODELS MOVE FLOSSIE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHIS.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE TOO WEAK FOR IT TO FULLY RESPOND\r\nTO THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES FLOSSIE STEADILY INTO COOLER WATER...AND\r\nTHUS CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nFLOSSIE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY\r\nIF THE SHEAR FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 36 HR\r\nVERIFIES. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 22.1N 117.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 22.7N 118.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 23.3N 119.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 23.6N 120.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 23.8N 120.8W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N 121.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE EVEN THOUGH THE \r\nSYSTEM IS OVER 25C WATER. CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE CONTINUE TO WARM \r\nWHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING \r\nMORE RESTRICTED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND \r\nOF DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...CI4.5... \r\nFROM TAFB AND 65 KT..CI4.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/6.  THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN EITHER THE INITIAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  FLOSSIE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN\r\nTWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AT THE MOMENT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FLOSSIE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWEST FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND GETS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRENDS INDICATED BY THE AVN...\r\nUKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT FLOSSIE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 24\r\nHOURS.  IF FLOSSIE REMAINS A VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE LONGER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES...THEN THE SYSTEM COULD TRACK FURTHER\r\nNORTH AND MORE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  HOWEVER...A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK WOULD PLACE FLOSSIE OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...WHICH\r\nWOULD ONLY ACT TO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS THAT MUCH MORE.\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING OVER \r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED \r\nTO BE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 23C.  HOWEVER...FLOSSIE COULD \r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR \r\nINCREASES AFTER 36 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 22.6N 118.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 23.0N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 23.5N 119.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 23.7N 119.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 23.9N 120.5W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N 121.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2001\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF FLOSSIE IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...\r\nWHICH INDICATES WEAKENING.  LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB GIVE 65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING.  LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSUGGESTS THAT FLOSSIE MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS NOW JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH...350/5...  AS FLOSSIE\r\nMOVES THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BASED ON THE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD OBSERVED MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nWEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT...AND LITTLE MOTION AFTER 2-3\r\nDAYS.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST U.K.\r\nMET OFFICE MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/RHOME\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 23.2N 118.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 23.6N 118.3W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 24.2N 118.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.6N 119.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N 120.2W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2001\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. \r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER OBSERVED AND THERE IS A RAPID DECREASE IN \r\nCONVECTION. DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 65 KT...SO THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 60 KT.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND  \r\nDISSIPATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER \r\nCOOLER WATER. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 335/6.  IN THE SHORT TERM...FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO \r\nMOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS \r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...A MID AND UPPER-LEVEL \r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND SOME OF THE NHC \r\nGUIDANCE RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TAKING THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY \r\nNORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW TO \r\nRESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...AND INSTEAD IT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 23.6N 118.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N 118.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 24.6N 119.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.9N 120.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 25.0N 120.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE...AND\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED SOUTH OF WHAT CONVECTION IS LEFT.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT...55 KT...AND 55 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...\r\nAND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55\r\nKT...AND GIVEN THE COLD WATER AND LACK OF CONVECTION THAT MIGHT BE A\r\nLITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN AND MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT \r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 330/4.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN IS\r\nFORECAST BETWEEN NOW AND DISSIPATION.  ONE INTERESTING NOTE IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS THAT THE BAMS...A MODEL DESIGNED FOR THIS TYPE OF\r\nSITUATION...FORECASTS A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION FOR 72 HR.\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE IS NOW OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER EVEN COOLER WATER.  CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT FLOSSIE MAY DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF\r\nTHE REMAINING CONVECTION DISAPPEARS COMPLETELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 23.7N 118.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 24.2N 119.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.6N 119.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 24.9N 120.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 25.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/04.  FLOSSIE CONTINUES IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nPATTERN...EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EAST-WEST 500 MB RIDGE.  THE GFDL...\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS AND AVIATION MODEL ALL SHOW A CONTINUED SLOW MOSTLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN CONTRAST...THE BAM MODELS AND LBAR SHOW AN\r\nACCELERATION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AN UNLIKELY SCENARIO\r\nCONSIDERING THE EXPECTED CONTINUED WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME NOT-VERY-DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nFLOSSIE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45-65 KNOTS AND THE \r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS.  INCREASINGLY COLDER \r\nWATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE THE BASIS FOR A FORECAST OF \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 24.0N 119.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 24.4N 119.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.8N 120.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 25.1N 120.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 25.3N 121.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/04.  FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A\r\nWEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES AT 500 MB...ONE TO THE\r\nEAST AND THE OTHER TO THE WEST.  BOTH THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHIFT THE\r\nTRACK TO THE RIGHT WHILE THE AVN AND UKMET DO NOT GIVE A FORECAST\r\nTRACK AT 12Z.  THIS IS APPARENTLY A RESULT OF STEERING FROM THE\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT OTHERWISE\r\nTHERE IS NO REAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OF A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM\r\n35 TO 55 KNOTS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  \r\nWITH A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLD WATER AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR FORECAST BY THE AVIATION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR\r\nWEAKENING AND THEN DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 24.4N 119.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 24.7N 119.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.2N 120.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 25.6N 120.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2001\r\n \r\nA MUCH WEAKENED FLOSSIE HAS MANAGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD\r\nAND HAS COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS FLOSSIE HAS\r\nINCREASED HER FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 6 KTS...AN INCREASE OF 2 KTS\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 355/06.  WITH\r\nTHIS INITIAL MOTION...LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE\r\nLATER FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nPERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40\r\nKNOTS.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nCOLD WATER UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE BAJA.  THIS...PLUS AN INCREASE\r\nIN VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST BY THE AVIATION MODEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 25.1N 119.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N 119.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 27.3N 119.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 28.9N 118.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 32.2N 116.5W    15 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2001\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE IS STILL GENERATING A LITTLE CONVECTION OVER THE \r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  AN EARLIER QUICKSCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS TROPICAL STORM WINDS...AND THIS SUPPORTS\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  FLOSSIE\r\nWILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM ONE LAST TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nCOMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA...AND A RIDGE/\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF FLOSSIE.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING A GENERAL NORTHWARD OR NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD NORTHERN BAJA OR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.\r\nONE OUTLIER IS THE BAMS...WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM WEST OF DUE \r\nNORTH TO A POSITION SOUTHWEST OF SANTA BARBARA.  BASED ON THE \r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR\r\nTO BUT SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  FLOSSIE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN TO A LOW BY 24 HR...AND THAT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE\r\nINLAND OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR PERHAPS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY.\r\n \r\nEVEN IF THE CENTER OF FLOSSIE DOES NOT REACH THE COAST...THE\r\nMOISTURE WILL.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE EXTENDING FROM FLOSSIE ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND \r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA.  THE MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEW MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 25.8N 118.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 26.7N 118.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 28.2N 118.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 30.3N 117.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Flossie","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2001\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS NOW BEEN ADVECTED \r\nNORTHEASTWARD LEAVING BEHIND A TOTALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM TAFB \r\nAND SAB AND FLOSSIE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALL OF \r\nTHE GUIDANCE FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS AND SSTS ARE BELOW 23C. \r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/03.  THE 06Z AVIATION...GFDL AND \r\nNOGAPS MODELS FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS \r\nNO MOTION.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST \r\nOF FLOSSIE AND A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF FLOSSIE AT LOW \r\nTO MID LEVELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS 015/6 FOR 36 HOURS \r\nAFTER WHICH DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO \r\nARIZONA.  THE MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN \r\nCALIFORNIA AND NEW MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 25.8N 118.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 26.7N 118.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 27.9N 118.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 29.1N 118.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Flossie","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2001\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  \r\nHOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z STILL SHOWED A FEW 30 KNOT WINDS WEST \r\nOF THE CENTER.  SO THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY...BUT COLD SSTS AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO \r\nDISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/5 AS FLOSSIE MOVES SLOWLY BETWEEN \r\nA HIGH TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS MOTION \r\nWITH A LITTLE ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL \r\nDISSIPATION AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO\r\nARIZONA.  THE MOISTURE COULD SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA AND NEW MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 26.3N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 27.0N 118.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 28.2N 117.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 29.5N 117.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Flossie","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2001\r\n \r\nBECAUSE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nCENTER IT IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A \r\nREMNANT LOW.  WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 25 KNOTS AND ARE FORECAST TO \r\nDECREASE AS THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/5 AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES SLOWLY \r\nIN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION BETWEEN A HIGH TO ITS SOUTHEAST \r\nAND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PLUME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA...SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND \r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND EXTENDING INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 26.9N 118.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 27.6N 118.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 28.5N 117.7W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 29.6N 117.4W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-04 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E TO \r\nA TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE IS IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OVER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A \r\nRECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM AFWA GAVE A DATA T OF 3.0...45 KT \r\n...AND A 1410Z QUIKSCAT PASS DETECTED 35 TO 40 KT UNCONTAMINATED \r\nWINDS.  BASED ON THIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS BEEN UPGRADED \r\nTO TROPICAL STORM GIL. \r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST AND WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1800Z 15.7N 123.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N 124.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 125.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.3N 126.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED AWIPS HEADER TO MIATCDEP3...\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 975 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE \r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS \r\nNOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS \r\nBASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND \r\n25 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7.  HOWEVER...THERE IS \r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION RELATIVE TO \r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ON THE \r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO SOME WEAK EASTERLY \r\nSHEAR.  T.D. EIGHT-E SHOULD TRACK IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR \r\nWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD OWING TO THE STRONG  \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE \r\nMODEL GUDIANCE AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN CLIPER AND THE BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nAS A RESULT OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...ONLY SLOW \r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 15.7N 122.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 15.9N 123.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N 125.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.6N 127.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.9N 128.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.6N 131.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...HOWEVER...IT \r\nAPPEARS TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...WHICH \r\nIS SHOWING GOOD BANDING FEATURES.  WITH THIS BANDING...THE \r\nDEPRESSION MAY IN FACT BE A TROPICAL STORM.  THE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE \r\nT2.0 FROM TAFB...2.5 FROM SAB...AND 1.5 FROM AFWA...NOT CONCLUSIVE \r\nBY ANY MEANS...BUT THESE MAY BE A LITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE.  GIVEN \r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE CENTER POSITION...WE ARE GOING TO KEEP THE \r\nSYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION FOR NOW.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT \r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS BASICALLY FAVORABLE \r\nAND STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS \r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT A SIGNIFICANT BREAK LIES \r\nAHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN AND GFDL \r\nMODELS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 15.6N 123.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N 124.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 125.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.3N 126.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nGIL IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45...55...AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES...HOWEVER...STILL SHOW A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM \r\nWITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE \r\nSYSTEM HAS GOOD BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN IS DECENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7.  GIL IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF A \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS AHEAD OF \r\nGIL...AS DEPICTED BY THE CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS...ARE MUCH LESS \r\nWELL DEFINED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE \r\nMULTIPLE HINTS OF A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 \r\nHOURS.  ON THE ONE HAND...THE NOGAPS TAKES GIL TO THE WEST...WHILE \r\nTHE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM STATIONARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTHINKING IS THAT GIL WILL MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  \r\nWATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR SHOULD BE REASONABLY \r\nLIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL \r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 15.5N 124.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 15.8N 125.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.0N 126.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.3N 128.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.8N 129.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GIL IS CONTINUING TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING\r\nAROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 55\r\nKT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THERE IS\r\nVERY GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4.  GIL REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE\r\nOF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...AND THUS STEERING CURRENTS APPEAR TO\r\nBE WEAK.  AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENTS...\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT...WITH THE BAM MODELS AND GFDL\r\nCALLING FOR A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...AND NHC91 AND NHC91UK\r\nCALLING FOR A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION.  A POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS\r\nINTERACTION WITH T.D. NINE-E LOCATED 750 NM EAST-NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nMOST LIKELY RESULT OF SUCH AN INTERACTION ON GIL WOULD BE A SLOW AND\r\nERRATIC MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SIMILAR TO...BUT\r\nSLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION AND\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH T.D. NINE-E.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 15.4N 124.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 15.4N 125.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 15.4N 126.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n\r\nAN SSM/I PASS AT 0227Z INDICATES THAT GIL MAY NOT HAVE BEEN QUITE\r\nAS WELL ORGANIZED AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT...AS IT SHOWED A LIKELY MID\r\nLEVEL CENTER ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE LIKELY LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THE BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS BROKEN DOWN...ALTHOUGH NEW\r\nCONVECTIONS IS FIRING NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT...AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nALLOWING FOR THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS...GIL\r\nAPPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IS\r\n680 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND MOVING 280/13.  THIS MOTION AND\r\nDECREASING SEPARATION INCREASES THE CHANCE THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS\r\nWILL INTERACT.  THE LIKELY EFFECT ON GIL WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW\r\nMOTION...POSSIBLY TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.  NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT YET REFLECT SUCH AN INTERACTION AND FORECASTS\r\nGIL TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  FOR NOW...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST WILL CHANGE TO HOLDING GIL STATIONARY FOR 24 HR AND THEN\r\nBEGINNING A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...SHOULD INTERACTION\r\nOCCUR...THE TRACK MAY CHANGE TO AN EASTWARD OR VERY ERRATIC\r\nMOTION.\r\n\r\nGIL SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...BUT\r\nIS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR ELSEWHERE.  SOME SHEARING\r\nOR IMPEDEDING OF OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS\r\nT.D. NINE-E APPROACHES...SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE SLOWER\r\nTHAN EARLIER FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INTERACTION WITH\r\nT.D. NINE-E MAY DISRUPT PART OF THE CIRCULATION OF GIL...IN WHICH\r\nCASE THE CURRENT FORECAST OF SLOW STRENGTHENING COULD BE OUT TO\r\nLUNCH.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 15.4N 124.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 15.4N 124.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 15.4N 124.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 15.4N 125.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 15.5N 126.3W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N 128.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nGIL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A MICROWAVE PASS \r\nNEAR 06Z SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE \r\nEAST OF THE UPPER CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 \r\nKT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL \r\nDEPRESSION NINE-E IS IMPINGING ON GIL AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE \r\nSHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN \r\nPULLED BACK A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE EXPECTATION \r\nTHAT THIS SHEARING WILL CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES GIL \r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nGIL REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  GIL IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN EDGE OF \r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GIL \r\nWILL RESUME A TRACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SOON.  THE AVN \r\nLIFTS OUT THE LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/140W LATE IN THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND EXTENDS THE RIDGE WESTWARD AS THE LOW PULLS OUT. \r\nTHE MODEL DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION AND SO IT REMAINS TOO WEAK TO \r\nHAVE MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF GIL.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH MOTION AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND \r\nASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME RETARDATION OF THE STEERING FLOW \r\nFROM TD-NINE-E.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 15.4N 124.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.4N 124.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.8N 126.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.1N 127.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.0N 129.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nGIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF \r\nTIGHT BANDING NEAR THE CORE THAT MAY PRESAGE THE FORMATION OF AN \r\nEYE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 65 \r\nKT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIED \r\nFROM HENRIETTE IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION OF GIL...AND NONE OF THE \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...SAVE THE GFDL...THINKS THAT MUCH MORE \r\nDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD TAKE VERY LITTLE TO MAKE \r\nGIL A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nAFTER REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS...GIL HAS RESUMED A \r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  THE AVN AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN \r\nBUILDING A RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT \r\nTHREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.  I \r\nAM PRESUMING THAT THE CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE WILL HAVE SOME \r\nRETARDING EFFECT THAT IS NOT WELL REPRESENTED IN THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 15.2N 125.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.3N 126.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 129.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 18.5N 132.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nGIL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A RATHER\r\nTIGHTLY-WOUND INNER CORE FEATURE ON THE IMAGES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.0...I.E.  65 KNOTS.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM\r\nIS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nIS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST BUT WEAK TO THE NORTHEAST.  CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION IS PRODUCING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO AROUND -80C.  THE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.\r\nHOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT OBSERVED TREND...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS \r\nOR SO.\r\n\r\nGIL HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SO FAR THIS EVENING.  INITAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/3.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HURRICANES\r\nPROGRESS IS BEING RETARDED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM\r\nHENRIETTE...WHICH IS CENTERED ROUGHLY 550 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nOF GIL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS VERY SLOW MOVEMENT FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...WITH A LITTLE FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THIS ASSUMES THAT...WITH TIME...GIL WILL GRADUALLY \r\nBECOME LESS INFLUENCED BY HENRIETTE...AND MORE SO BY THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 15.0N 126.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 126.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.3N 127.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 15.7N 128.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N 130.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n \r\nGIL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A SOLID 20 NM DIAMETER \r\nCLOSED EYE INDICATED IN A 06/0214 SSMI OVERPASS. DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...T4.5...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND \r\n65 KT...T4.0...FROM AFWA.  THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS \r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN \r\nALL QUADRANTS DESPITE THE SLIGHT EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEING \r\nCREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE...WHICH IS \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 480 NMI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GIL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5.  SIMILAR TO TROPICAL STORM \r\nHENRIETTE DISCUSSION...THERE IS LIKELY SOME BINARY INTERACTION \r\nOCCURRING BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES.  HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT STEERING \r\nFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME FROM THE DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE \r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTH OF BOTH HENRIETTE AND GIL.  SURFACE ANALYSES \r\nINDICATE THAT GIL AND HENRIETTE ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE \r\nGYRE THAT SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE \r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME KEEPING THE TWO \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES AS SEPARATE ENTITIES FOR MORE THAN ABOUT 36 \r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH THEY KEEP GIL AS THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THE \r\nFORECAST TRACK FOR GIL IS BASED IN PART ON HOW LONG HENRIETTE \r\nSURVIVES.  THE INCREASED OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF HENRIETTE THIS \r\nMORNING HAS HELPED TO NUDGE GIL A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST.  THIS \r\n\"PUSH-PULL\" PATTERN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR \r\nAT LEAST 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH HENRIETTE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN... \r\nWHICH MAY CAUSE GIL TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN.  THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS A \r\nLITTLE NORTH OR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN \r\nTHE NOGAPS AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nGIL SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SINCE IT HAS A TIGHTER CONVECTIVE \r\nPATTERN AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION... AS INDICATED IN AN EARLIER \r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS...THAN HENRIETTE DOES.  HOWEVER...THE UNCERTAINTY \r\nIN WHAT EFFECT THE SHEARING OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE WILL HAVE ON GIL \r\nREQUIRES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN RATHER CONSERVATIVE. THE \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY...WHICH BRINGS \r\nGIL UP TO 83 KT IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  NOTE THAT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE \r\nIN THE EASTERLY SHEAR COULD ALLOW GIL TO REACH 90 TO 95 KT IN THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 15.3N 126.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 127.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.9N 129.2W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 16.4N 130.6W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 17.0N 132.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 134.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 75 KNOTS.\r\nALTHOUGH AN EYE IS NOT OBSERVED ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES YET...AN\r\nSSMI PASS EARLIER TODAY SHOWED A CIRCULAR EYE.  GIL HAS PLENTY OF\r\nCONVECTION...GOOD OUTFLOW AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW FROM ITS NEIGHBOR HENRIETTE IS BEGINNING TO\r\nAPPROACH THE HURRICANE BUT IT DOES NOT SEEM STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...GIL SHOULD BE APPROACHING\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS MORE COMPLICATED DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH\r\nHENRIETTE WHICH IS MOVING AT A FASTER PACE TO THE NORTH OF GIL.  THE\r\nHURRICANE...GIL...HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST...ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE HENRIETTE IS MOVING TO ITS\r\nNORTH...INTERRUPTING THE WESTWARD STEERING FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 15.0N 127.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 128.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N 129.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 131.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n \r\nA RAGGED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS \r\nBEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE EYE WAS CLEARLY\r\nSEEN ON SSMI AND TRIM SATELLITES A FEW HOURS AGO.  T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5\r\nAND 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 85 KNOTS.\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nWHILE LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS.  SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN GIL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nGIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS.\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS WHILE HENRIETTE IS PASSING TO THE NORTH DISRUPTING THE\r\nWESTWARD STEERING FLOW.  THEREAFTER...A TRACK MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST BUILDS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 14.8N 128.4W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.9N 129.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 15.0N 131.0W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.5N 132.0W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n\r\nTHE RAGGED EYE OBSERVED EARLIER HAS DISAPPEARED FOR THE MOMENT...\r\nALTHOUGH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF GIL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 AND 77 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nSCENARIO FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GIL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD AS HENRIETTE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD MOVE IT MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THERE IS STILL\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS\r\nTHE LARGER HENRIETTE PASSES TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS BECOME LESS ANTICYCLONIC AND\r\nMORE UNIFORM EASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...LIKELY DUE TO THE\r\nEFFECTS OF THE OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE.  THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...GIL SHOULD MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WEAKENING.\r\nSHOULD THE OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE DECREASE WHILE GIL IS STILL OVER\r\nWARM WATER...GIL COULD GET A BIT FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII 12 FT SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE BEEN\r\nEXPANDED BASED ON A REPORT FROM SHIP H3AK.  IT REPORTED 40 KT WINDS\r\nAND 22 FT SEAS AT 12.3N 126.5W...OR ABOUT 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 15.1N 128.8W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 15.2N 129.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 15.6N 131.1W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 16.2N 132.3W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL REMAINS HEALTHY...AND A RAGGED EYE\r\nAPPEARED FOR A COUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 06Z.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 90 KT...BUT SINCE\r\nTHE EYE DID NOT PERSIST THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT OF A MYSTERY.  WHEN THE EYE\r\nAPPEARED...IT SUGGESTED A SHORT-TERM MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST AND A LONGER-TERM NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE IT\r\nDISAPPEARED...THE MOTION LOOKS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE 310/5...WHICH IS A CONSIDERABLE\r\nSHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE..WITH HENRIETTE NOW ABOUT\r\n430 NM NORTHEAST OF GIL AND LIKELY TO PASS NORTH OF IT DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 36 HR.  THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION\r\nBY THEMSELVES REQUIRE A CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THUS\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  MATTERS ARE FURTHER COMPLICATED BY FORECAST\r\nCHANGES IN THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH NOW SUGGEST\r\nTHAT GIL WILL TAKE A JOG TO THE NORTH AS HENRIETTE GOES BY.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FURTHER IF THIS NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION MATERIALIZES.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW OF GIL IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY THAT OF\r\nHENRIETTE...ALTHOUGH IT HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HR.  SINCE\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS STRONG AND GIL IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE MORE NORTHERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS GIL TO COOLER\r\nWATER A LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ACCORDINGLY ADJUSTED DOWNWARD.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT GIL COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF THE SHEAR FROM THE\r\nOUTFLOW OF HENRIETTE DECREASES BEFORE GIL REACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 15.6N 128.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.1N 129.6W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.7N 130.6W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 131.9W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 18.3N 133.2W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 135.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nGIL DOES NOT LOOK AS HEALTHY AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.  THE CONVECTIVE \r\nPATTERN IS NOW RATHER ASYMMETRIC...WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY WEST OF THE \r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD.  DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... \r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND THE TAFB ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK THAT HEALTHY EITHER...BEING \r\nAFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM HENRIETTE.  HOWEVER...WATER \r\nTEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO SO THE \r\nHURRICANE SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD ITS OWN FOR A WHILE.  TOWARD THE \r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SSTS WILL DECREASE AND A WEAKENING \r\nTREND SHOULD COMMENCE.\r\n\r\nWITH THE DEGENERATION OF THE EYE...IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO \r\nDETERMINE THE MOTION...WHICH IS OFFICIALLY ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6... \r\nBUT MAY IN FACT BE A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT.  I DO NOT CURRENTLY SEE \r\nTHE NORTHWARD MOTION DISCUSSED IN THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE.  \r\nPERHAPS VISIBLE IMAGERY IN A FEW HOURS WILL HELP.  REGARDLESS...MUCH \r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TAKES GIL SHARPLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE \r\nCIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW \r\nNEARLY AS MUCH INTERACTION AND FOLLOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST \r\nTRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 15.9N 129.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 130.6W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.1N 131.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 132.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 19.0N 134.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN THAT SIGNIFICANT\r\nADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE LOCATION...MOTION...AND\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF GIL FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AS CORRECTLY\r\nNOTED IN THE 09Z DISCUSSION...AND INCORRECTLY DISCOUNTED IN THE 15Z\r\nDISCUSSION...GIL HAS TURNED IN RESPONSE TO THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nHENRIETTE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES \r\nGIL NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN BENDS THE \r\nTRACK BACK TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE \r\nRIGHT TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT STILL DOES \r\nNOT SHOW AS MUCH CURVATURE IN THE TRACK AS THE AVN...GFDL...OR \r\nUKMET.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD GIL MAY FIND ITS PROGRESS BLOCKED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS \r\nNORTHWEST...AND SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED ON DAY THREE.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS IN LOCATION...GIL WAS PROBABLY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THAN I PREVIOUSLY GAVE IT CREDIT FOR THIS MORNING.\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS VIGOROUS BUT HAS LITTLE SHAPE.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  GIL IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR FROM HENRIETTE.  WITH THE MORE NORTHERLY TRACK ADJUSTMENT...\r\nGIL WILL GET INTO COOLER WATERS SOONER...AND SO THE WEAKENING TREND\r\nIS MORE RAPID WITH THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 16.8N 129.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.6N 130.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 130.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 20.5N 131.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N 132.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF GIL IS NOW NEAR \r\nTHE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nBASED ON THIS AND ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 TO 77 KT FROM \r\nTHE THREE AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 65 KT.    \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS GIL MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY \r\nCOOLER WATERS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/8.  A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS \r\nEXPECTED THROUGH 36-48 HOURS AS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE \r\nVARIOUS MODELS DIVERGE.  THE UKMET AND GFDL TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY \r\nSOUTHWEST...WITH THE AVN SHOWING A MORE RAPID MOTION TO THE \r\nSOUTHWEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND LBAR TURN GIL MORE TO \r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE THE BAMM AND BAMD SHOOT THE SYSTEM \r\nRAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS TO THE NORTHWEST OF \r\nGIL...ITS AFFECT ON THE TRACK OF GIL WILL DECREASE...AND MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND \r\nMOVE AWAY FROM EACH OTHER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHADES THE TRACK \r\nCLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND \r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 17.7N 129.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 18.9N 129.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N 130.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 21.3N 131.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF GIL IS LOCATED\r\nNEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...INDICATING A\r\nSHEARED SYSTEM.  ALSO...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED A SIMILAR\r\nFEATURE.  HOWEVER..DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT 65 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE AS GIL MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/10...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY\r\nMOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.  AGAIN...AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE\r\nVARIOUS MODELS DIVERGE.  THE UKMET AND GFDL TURN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY\r\nSOUTHWEST...WITH THE AVN SHOWING A MORE RAPID MOTION TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND LBAR TURN GIL MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE THE BAMM AND BAMD MOVE THE SYSTEM\r\nRAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nGIL...ITS AFFECT ON THE TRACK OF GIL WILL DECREASE...AND MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND\r\nMOVE AWAY FROM EACH OTHER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHADES THE TRACK\r\nCLOSER TO THE SLOWER UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND\r\nIS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 19.1N 130.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N 132.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N 133.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 22.4N 134.9W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 21.8N 136.9W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nGIL HAS BECOME BADLY SHEARED...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF GIL AND \r\nHENRIETTE REVOLVE RAPIDLY AROUND EACH OTHER...AND THE LIMITED \r\nCONVECTION WITH GIL HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0300Z \r\nSHOWED A RAIN-FLAGGED 60 KT VECTOR...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE IN THE \r\n45 TO 55 KT RANGE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT FOR \r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 23C AND CONTINUED \r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED.    \r\n\r\nWITH THE RAPID CO-REVOLUTION OF GIL AND HENRIETTE...THE CURRENTLY\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION OF GIL MAY OPEN UP AND TECHNICALLY DISSIPATE\r\nWITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH HENRIETTE.\r\nAFTER BOTH CIRCULATIONS DISSIPATE...THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nTHAT REMAINS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII FOR GIL HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE \r\nTHE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 21.7N 131.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 23.6N 133.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N 136.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.3N 137.7W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N 139.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 22.0N 140.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF GIL AND THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE CONTINUE \r\nTO REVOLVE AROUND EACH OTHER.  LITTLE DEEP CONVECTIVE HAS BEEN \r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  A QUIKSCAT \r\nPASS AT 1412Z SHOWS A FEW 40 KNOT WINDS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE \r\nCENTER OF GIL.  DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE \r\nFROM 35 TO 45 KNOTS.  WE WILL CARRY THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 40 \r\nKNOTS...REDUCING IT 10 KNOTS FROM 6 HOURS PREVIOUSLY.  WITH SEA \r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C OR COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK...CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH MOVING NEAR 14 KNOTS CURRENTLY...THE BEST GUIDANCE \r\nFORECASTS THIS FORWARD MOTION TO DECREASE DURING THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION GRADUALLY CHANGING FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO \r\nWEST SOUTHWEST.  MODELS FORECASTING THIS TREND INCLUDE THE GFDI... \r\nUKMI AND CONSENSUS MODELS...GUNS AND GUNA.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII FOR GIL WHICH IN THE LAST ADVISORY WERE ADJUSTED TO \r\nINCLUDE THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE ARE BEING REDUCED \r\nAS GIL BECOMES THE DOMINATE, THOUGH WEAKENING SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER GROSS\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 22.3N 132.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 22.9N 134.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N 135.8W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 22.9N 137.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.4N 138.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n\r\nA FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF GIL...SUGGESTING THAT IT IS STILL JUST BARELY A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n30 KT...AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\nADDITIONAL MICROWAVE DATA SHOULD BE AVAILABLE DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF GIL IS REALLY LEFT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTERS OF GIL AND HENRIETTE CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND EACH\r\nOTHER INSIDE A LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL THE CENTER OF GIL EITHER DISSIPATES OR MERGES WITH THE CENTER\r\nOF HENRIETTE.  NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS TO THE TWO CENTERS...THE BROAD\r\nLOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT WINDS\r\nFOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 22.1N 135.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 138.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 09 2001\r\n \r\nA SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RE-DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED IN \r\nTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF GIL...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...GIL DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LIFETIME LEFT AS COLD AIR \r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY ADVECTED AROUND THE CENTER.  GIL \r\nMAY GET ONE MORE SHOT OF ENERGY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE \r\nREMNANT CIRCUALTION OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE GETS ABSORBED \r\nINTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF GIL.\r\n \r\nGIL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS \r\nAND THEN MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF \r\nHENRIETTE ACTS TO THE PULL GIL A LITTLE MORE POLEWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 21.2N 136.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.4N 138.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 20.1N 141.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 09 2001\r\n\r\nLITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SYSTEM.  \r\nGIL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 12 TO 24 \r\nHOURS.  THE REMNANT LOW COULD LINGER FOR A WHILE LONGER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WEST-SOUTHWEST...250/15.  A GRADUAL REDUCTION OF \r\nFORWARD SPEED...AND A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE \r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH \r\nOF...THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 20.4N 138.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 19.6N 140.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.8N 142.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 09 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER NEAR THE CENTER HAS \r\nDISSIPATED...AND GIL IS BEING REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE \r\nAREA.  THEREFORE THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON GIL.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD \r\nAT A REDUCED RATE OF SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 20.3N 138.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 19.8N 140.2W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 144.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE \r\nDISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION \r\nAND ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CONVECTION \r\nIS POORLY ORGANIZED AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PROBABLY NOT HIGHER \r\nTHAN 25 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 310/11.  THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD TO \r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS MUCH FASTER \r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS RAPID TRANSLATION APPEARS TO RESULT \r\nPARTLY FROM AN INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...ABOUT \r\n750 NM TO ITS WEST.  THERE IS AN APPARENTLY SOLID MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO \r\nTHE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND SO THE GFDL SOLUTION IS HARD TO \r\nACCEPT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS \r\nBUT IS CLOSER TO THE AVN.\r\n\r\nWITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DEPRESSION IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BE SLOW.  WITH THE CYCLONE TO WEST ON A MORE RAPID \r\nDEVELOPMENT TRACK...ALMOST ANY INTERACTION WITH BIG BROTHER WOULD \r\nHINDER DEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 17.3N 108.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.2N 110.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 19.7N 113.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED\r\nDEPRESSION...WITH A LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL-REMOVED FROM THE BULK OF \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT...THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS APPEARS TO \r\nHAVE A SEPARATE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION.  WITH THE SHEAR NOT \r\nLIKELY TO ABATE SOON...THIS DEPRESSION COULD HAVE A RATHER SHORT \r\nLIFE CYCLE.  NEITHER THE AVN NOR NOGAPS INDICATE ANY DEVELOPMENT... \r\nBUT RATHER ABSORB THE DEPRESSION INTO ANOTHER VORTEX THAT DOES NOT \r\nAPPEAR TO EXIST.  THE GFDL ALSO DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13.  THERE REMAINS GREAT SCATTER IN THE \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF VORTICES...REAL AND \r\nIMAGINED...IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION...THE TRACK FORECAST \r\nIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE MAIN \r\nCONVECTION...AS IT IS NOW...IT SHOULD FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW... \r\nGRADUALLY TURNING MORE TO THE WEST AND SLOWING.  THIS IS THE OPTION \r\nFAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHEN \r\nMORE THAN EXPECTED...THERE IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nCYCLONE THAT WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT A \r\nSOMEWHAT FASTER SPEED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 18.0N 110.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 19.0N 112.4W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 19.5N 114.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 19.7N 115.9W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2001\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF BEING SHEARED\r\nTHIS EVENING...WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF \r\nA PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THERE MAY STILL BE SOME MID \r\nLEVEL CENTER FARTHER SOUTH IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 30 KT...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT BASED ON A LESS IMPRESSIVE\r\nOVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE THAN EARLIER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHERE WAS A 60 NM SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITIONS...SO THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nWHILE TROPICAL STORM GIL IS 750 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVING\r\n270/4.  THIS PATTERN WOULD GENERALLY SUPPORT A WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN MOST OF THE NHC HURRICANE\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE GREATEST POTENTIAL PROBLEM IN THIS FORECAST IS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH GIL.  THE MOST LIKELY\r\nRESULT OF SUCH AN INTERACTION ON NINE-E WOULD BE A FASTER MOTION\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST BETWEEN GIL AND THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND SOMEWHAT FASTER...REFLECTING THE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION AND THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION WITH\r\nGIL.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO TRICKY.  WHILE THE SYSTEM IS\r\nCURRENTLY SHEARED FROM THE EAST OR NORTHEAST...THE -80C TOPS IN THE\r\nMAIN CONVECTION SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN 36 HR...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nDISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 48 HR.  BOTH OF THE FORECASTS ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE...AND THUS A COMPROMISE IS PROBABLY IN ORDER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MAKING THE CYCLONE A STORM IN 36 HR.  BY\r\n72 HR THE SYSTEM MAY MOVE INTO COOLER WATER AND START TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 18.0N 112.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 18.7N 114.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 19.4N 116.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 20.7N 120.6W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N 124.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E APPEARS RATHER POORLY\r\nDEFINED AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.  IT SEEMS TO BE \r\nNEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF A PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 25\r\nKT FROM SAB.  GIVEN THE RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE INCREASED ONLY TO 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS 680 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL STORM GIL...WHICH IS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY.  THE DECREASING DISTANCE AND RELATIVE MOTION INCREASE\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY THAT THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY INTERACT.  THE MOST\r\nLIKELY AFFECT ON T.D. NINE-E WOULD BE A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN GIL AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN AND TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...REFLECTING THE INITIAL MOTION AND INCREASED\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRONG\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEM COULD WELL CAUSE ERRATIC MOTION\r\nFOR T.D. NINE-E.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEARED FROM THE EAST APPEARANCE IS A LITTLE STRANGE GIVEN THE\r\nQUICK WESTWARD MOTION.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT WEST\r\nOF THE CENTER DESPITE THE SHEAR...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL AGAIN TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN\r\n36 HR...WHILE THE GFDL NOW DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 18 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SHIPS MODEL SINCE STRONG\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A STRONG INTERACTION\r\nWITH GIL COULD DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF T.D. NINE-E...AND SHOULD\r\nTHAT OCCUR IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 18.0N 113.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.1N 118.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.7N 120.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.3N 123.2W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 128.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE TO PINPOINT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SINCE \r\nA MICROWAVE OVERPASS AROUND 04Z.  THAT POSITION WAS PRETTY MUCH ON \r\nTRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13.  CONTINUITY \r\nPLACES THE DEPRESSION CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...WELL EAST OF THE ROTATION IN THE CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT GIVEN THAT \r\nALL THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHWEST OF A SYSTEM MOVING SMARTLY TO THE \r\nWEST...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE AT THE \r\nSURFACE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING CLOSER TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...WHICH IS \r\nSTATIONARY ABOUT 550 NM TO ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nHIGHLY DIVERGENT AS THE NATURE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO \r\nCYCLONES IS NOT CLEAR.  GIL IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS BUT IS \r\nTHE BETTER ORGANIZED.  WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION...THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL \r\nCONTINUE AT A FAIRLY RAPID RATE AND SWING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF \r\nGIL.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DEPRESSION COULD \r\nCOME WITHIN 200-300 NM OF GIL...AND THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATER \r\nAND THE CIRCULATION OF GIL IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 18.1N 114.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.2N 117.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 119.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 19.9N 122.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N 130.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS OVER TD NINE-E SHOWED A STRONG SURGE OF \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND IS THE BASIS \r\nFOR UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE LOWER...AND IN FACT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE \r\nPROBABLY CLOSE TO THE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS OF 25 TO 30 KT.  \r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED CLOSE TO THE CENTER AND \r\nTHERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE WIND FIELD TO TIGHTEN UP.  THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO 57 KT...BUT THE AVN AND \r\nGFDL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL \r\nEVIDENT OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST THINKING IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN THAT COOLER WATERS AND THE HORIZONTAL \r\nSHEARING ENVIRONMENT OF GIL WILL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INTITIAL MOTION IS 270/14...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THERE \r\nIS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  IN ANOTHER 12 TO \r\n24 HOURS HENRIETTE MAY BEGIN TO TURN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AS IT \r\nINTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF GIL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 17.7N 116.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.8N 118.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 18.8N 121.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N 124.2W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 127.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2001\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM STRUCTURE IS\r\nBECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND MORE LIKE THAT OF A TYPICAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TIGHTENED AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH\r\nIS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THERE ARE ALSO\r\nSOME BANDING FEATURES NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEARING SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO WEAKEN HENRIETTE.\r\n\r\nMOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/14. THERE IS LIKELY\r\nTO BE SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE GIL SITUATED ABOUT\r\n550 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NCEP GLOBAL \r\nMODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE HENRIETTE VERY WELL...AND SHOWS A SPURIOUS \r\nVORTICITY MAXIMUM BETWEEN IT AND GIL.  THIS RESULTS IN HENRIETTE \r\nTURNING RATHER QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND \r\nBOTH GIL AND THE SPURIOUS VORTEX.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT \r\nGIL WILL...IN REALITY...DOMINATE THE STEERING SINCE HENRIETTE \r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST ONLY BENDS THE STORMS HEADING GRADUALLY TOWARD THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/AGUIRRE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 17.8N 117.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.3N 120.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N 122.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N 125.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N 128.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 133.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A 06/0531Z \r\nSSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A PARTIAL EYEWALL WAS DEVELOPING.  THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nOF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD \r\nTO THE SOUTH...BUT IS ONLY FAIR ELSEWHERE OWING TO MODERATE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. THERE IS LIKELY SOME BINARY \r\nINTERACTION OCCURRING WITH HURRICANE GIL...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT \r\n480 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HENRIETTE.  HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT STEERING \r\nFLOW SHOULD COME FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE \r\nNORTH OF BOTH HENRIETTE AND GIL.  SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT GIL \r\nAND HENRIETTE ARE BOTH EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE GYRE.  THE \r\nENTIRE ENVELOPE SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW \r\nON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME KEEPING THE \r\nTWO TROPICAL CYCLONES AS SEPARATE ENTITIES. THE AVN WEAKENS \r\nHENRIETTE AND MERGES THE IT WITH GIL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHILE \r\nTHE UKMET ALSO WEAKENS HENRIETTE AND SHEARS IT OUT INTO A BAND ON \r\nTHE NORTH SIDE OF GIL IN ABOUT THE SAME TIME PERIOD.  GIVEN THE \r\nRATHER IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION \r\nOF HENRIETTE...THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND \r\nCLOSE TO THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS...AND BETWEEN THE GFDL \r\nAND GFDN MODELS.\r\n\r\nSLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AFTER \r\nWHICH HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER.  IT IS POSSIBLE \r\nTHAT HENRIETTE COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE NEXT \r\n12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER \r\nSUB-26C SSTS.  THE MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS RESTRICTING \r\nOUTFLOW TO THE EAST AND INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION SLIGHTLY.  \r\nHOWEVER... THE MAIN EFFECT OF THIS FLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN TO KEEP \r\nHENRIETTE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 18.3N 119.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 19.1N 121.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.2N 123.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N 125.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 21.9N 128.2W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.  \r\nSATELITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 \r\nKT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINITY IN THE EXACT CENTER \r\nLOCATION AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE WARMED \r\nSLIGHTLY...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 285/15.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE AVIATION MODEL CONTINUES TO\r\nFORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HENRIETTE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER BOTH THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS ARE\r\nHAVING TROUBLE KEEPING HENRIETTE AND GIL AS SEPARATE ENTITIES.  \r\nSINCE THESE MODELS MAY NOT BE FULLY REPRESENTING THE INFLUENCE OF \r\nGILS CIRCULATION ON HENRIETTE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO A BIT \r\nFASTER THAN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS...THEREFORE\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING HENRIETTE QUICKLY OVER COLDER WATERS... \r\nAND WEAKENING WOULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 19.1N 120.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 20.1N 123.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.1N 125.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 22.8N 130.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 24.5N 136.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED GOOD BANDING FEATURES TO THE \r\nSOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTIVE TOPS WHICH \r\nWARMED THIS MORNING HAVE NOW COOLED AS A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS \r\nDEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nREMAINED UNCHANGED FROM ALL AGENCIES AND RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT. \r\nA 1319Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 45 TO 50 KT \r\nWINDS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE CURRENT \r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT.\r\n \r\nWITH BETTER CENTER FIXES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HENRIETTE IS MOVING \r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW 295/16 KT.  \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH \r\n36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT THE TRACK WAS BENT BACK TO THE WEST...AS \r\nHENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND \r\nHURRICANE GIL.\r\n\r\nSINCE HENRIETTE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...IT IS \r\nMOST LIKELY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS.  AS HENRIETTE CONTINUES INTO COLDER WATERS...STEADY \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON \r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT DATA.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 20.0N 122.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 21.1N 124.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 22.3N 128.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N 131.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N 134.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N 139.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 06 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER DEFINED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A BURST OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nAND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  ON THE BASIS OF THE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HENRIETTE...WHILE HURRICANE GIL IS\r\n460 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST.  HENRIETTE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON A\r\nQUICK WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK BETWEEN GIL AND THE RIDGE...AND\r\nMOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  GIVEN THAT THE DISTANCE BETWEEN\r\nHENRIETTE AND GIL IS NOW DECREASING RATHER SLOWLY...THE TWO SYSTEMS\r\nARE UNLIKELY TO MERGE AS INDICATED BY THE AVN AND UKMET.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE IS LIKELY PEAKING AS IT IS ALREADY MOVING INTO SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 25C.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING\r\nAT 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND THE MOTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 20.9N 123.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.9N 125.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 22.9N 128.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N 131.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N 135.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N 140.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nHENRIETTE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BOTH NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nIN THE EXTENSIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  IT IS LIKELY\r\nTHAT THE STORM IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE 24C SEAS SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES THAT IT IS PASSING OVER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL AS\r\nWELL.  HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN HOW MUCH\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF HENRIETTE...WHILE HURRICANE\r\nGIL IS 430 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST.  HENRIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A\r\nQUICK WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK BETWEEN GIL AND THE RIDGE...AND\r\nMOST NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND IF IT WERE OVER\r\nWARMER WATER IT WOULD LIKELY BE STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER 22C WATER IN 24-36 HR...SO\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS NOW THE FORECAST.  HENRIETTE SHOULD BE\r\nDISSIPATING BY 48 HR...AND SHOULD BE TOTALLY GONE BY 72 HR AS ANY\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE DISRUPTED OR PERHAPS ABSORBED BY\r\nGIL.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 21.4N 125.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 22.4N 127.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 23.2N 130.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 133.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N 136.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM OVER HENRIETTE.  DVORAK \r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...BUT DATA T NUMBERS ARE 35 TO \r\n45 KT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0148Z SHOWED THAT THE STRONG WINDS \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WERE DECREASING.  GIVEN THE STABLE BOUNDARY \r\nLAYER...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH \r\nTHE CYCLONE OVER 23C WATER...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  \r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY THE \r\nSYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17.  HENRIETTE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY \r\nACCELERATING BETWEEN HURRICANE GIL AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN TRACK BUT FASTER THAN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SHOWS A GENTLE TURN TO THE LEFT AROUND \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF GIL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 22.4N 127.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 23.2N 129.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 23.8N 133.4W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 137.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 140.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N 145.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nARE 45 TO 55 KT.  THE WINDS ARE HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON SOME QUIKSCAT \r\nVECTORS...ALTHOUGH THEY WERE RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF A SWATH AND I AM \r\nNOT CERTAIN THE WINDS ARE REALLY THIS HIGH.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE \r\nNEAR 22 TO 23C AND HENRIETTE IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE THE CONVECTION \r\nREQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR VERY LONG.  A REMNANT LOW IS \r\nLIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE DAYS...HOWEVER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17.  HENRIETTE IS MAKING A GENTLE TURN \r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE GIL...WHICH IS ABOUT 400 NM TO ITS \r\nSOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY AND SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM.  OF NOTE ARE THE AVN AND \r\nGFDL MODELS...WHICH TURN HENRIETTE SOUTHWESTWARD MUCH MORE SHARPLY \r\nTHAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 22.6N 128.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 22.6N 131.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 134.7W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N 138.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 141.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 145.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 07 2001\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 35 TO 45 KT.  THE WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 40 KT.  WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 22 TO 23C AND HENRIETTE IS NOT LIKELY TO HAVE\r\nTHE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR VERY LONG.  A\r\nREMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS AFTER THE DISSIPATING STAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/18.  HENRIETTES MOTION APPEARS TO BE\r\nSTRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  IF THIS MOTION\r\nAND SPEED CONTINUE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM GIL WHICH\r\nIS LOCATED ABOUT 400 NM TO THE SOUTH...INSTEAD OF MOVING AROUND GIL \r\nAND BEING ABSORBED BY GILS CIRCULATION AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SUGGEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY BUT FASTER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.  REGARDLESS...THE \r\nSYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 22.9N 130.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.9N 133.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 137.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 21.8N 140.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.8N 142.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 145.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE NOW 35 KT.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT\r\nINDICATED 35 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE WINDS ARE\r\nREDUCED TO 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY RAPIDLY NOW AND SHOULD\r\nBEGIN DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  A REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO\r\nPERSIST FOR AT LEAST TWO TO THREE DAYS AFTER THE DISSIPATING STAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/20.  HENRIETTES MOTION CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSTRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  BECAUSE OF THE\r\nFAST FORWARD SPEED THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED WELL TO THE WEST OF GILS\r\nLONGITUDE AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM NORTHWEST OF GIL.  IF THIS\r\nMOTION AND SPEED CONTINUE THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM\r\nGIL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBUT FASTER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.  REGARDLESS...THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 22.3N 133.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.3N 136.3W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.5N 140.1W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 19.4N 143.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.7N 145.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 149.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henriette","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 08 2001\r\n \r\nTHE VORTICITY MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH HENRIETTE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS NOW.  FURTHERMORE...A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 0300Z AND EXAMINATION OF LOW CLOUD MOTIONS IN THE\r\nNIGHT IR CHANNEL SHOW THAT HENRIETTE...WHICH IS RACING AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF GIL...NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL\r\nBE THE FINAL ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE LIKELY STILL SOME WINDS OF CLOSE TO 35 KT NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nVORTICITY CENTER...AND THE WIND RADII CONTAINED IN THE ADVISORY FOR\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL WILL BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF\r\nHENRIETTE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 20.5N 135.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME BETTER \r\nORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ONLY \r\n1.0 AND 1.5...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF CIRCULATION \r\nAND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO CALL THE DISTURBANCE A DEPRESSION.  \r\nTHERE IS ALMOST NO HISTORY ON THE SYSTEM...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY \r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND MOST OF \r\nTHE CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...ONLY SLOW \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN AFTER A DAY OR SO \r\nAND...SINCE THE WATER WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...THE SYSTEM WILL \r\nTHEN HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN EDGING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO...SO NO \r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE DEEMED NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER... \r\nTHE DEPRESSION MAY GENERATE HEAVY RAINS IN COASTAL REGIONS THAT \r\nCOULD BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 15.2N 100.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 102.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.2N 104.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 106.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 109.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 19.6N 113.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 10 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERALLY WEST TO \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   IT IS PUZZLING \r\nTHAT ONLY THE GFDL DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO.  IT DRIFTS THE \r\nDEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS AND WEAKENS IT\r\nAFTER 12 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF \r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ONLY 1.5...25 KNOTS...CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS.  BUT THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER THAT IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE A\r\nBANDING FEATURE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS.\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A DECREASE IN EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSO THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 65 KNOTS IN 72\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR\r\n24 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST.\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE DEPRESSION COULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINS\r\nIN COASTAL REGIONS THAT COULD BE ESPECIALLY HAZARDOUS IN MOUNTAINOUS\r\nAREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 15.4N 101.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.5N 107.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 109.9W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N 114.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SHIP ZDEB2 WAS LOCATED 135 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 06Z AND REPORTED A WIND OF 100/37 KNOT AND\r\n1006.5 MB PRESSURE.  THE SHIP IS ONLY A FEW MILES OFF OF THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORDM IVO ON THE\r\nBASIS OF THE SHIP REPORTS AS WELL AS A 2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION\r\nFROM TAFB.  A 04Z SSMI PASS SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE DOES NOT\r\nSUGGEST A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE \r\n00Z AVIATION MODEL GIVES 23 KNOT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR 24 \r\nHOURS OVER THE STORM FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING SHEAR.  SO IF IVO CAN \r\nHOLD TOGETHER FOR A DAY...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR \r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE.  THIS IS THE SHIPS FORECAST AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN CONTRAST THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A VERY WEAK \r\nSYSTEM THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS A \r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD KEEP IVO ON A \r\n285-300 DEGREE HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL \r\nDOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO.  IT SHOWS A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nDRIFT FOR NEARLY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE \r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nUNTIL THE STORM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN A DAY OR \r\nSO...IT COULD GENERATE HEAVY RAINS IN COASTAL REGIONS WITH FLASH \r\nFLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 15.5N 103.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 16.0N 104.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 16.7N 107.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.8N 109.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.9N 111.1W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IVO HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nIN ORGANIZATION.  THERE IS SOME SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH IS\r\nKEEPING THE CENTER EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION BUT IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX.  IN FACT...THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nCENTER AS WE SPEAK.  A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS THE\r\nCIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS \r\nTIME...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. A \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A TROUGH \r\nAPPROACHING THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE A WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING \r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY A SMALL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nTRACK..WOULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR EXTREME OF SOUTHERN \r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nUNTIL THE STORM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN A DAY OR\r\nSO...IVO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS IN COASTAL \r\nREGIONS WITH FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 17.1N 104.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.6N 106.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4...THE WORD BAJA IN FRONT OF CALIFORNIA WAS\r\nOMITTED..CAUSING SOME CONFUSION. IT SHOULD HAVE SAID WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA. I APOLOGIZE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT IVO HAS NOT CHANGED IN ORGANIZATION\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.\r\nTHERE IS SOME SHEAR FROM THE NORTHEAST WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING THE\r\nCENTER TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION.  A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER AWAY\r\nFROM THE COAST AND THE SHEAR RELAXES.\r\n \r\nIVO IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL\r\nPERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY 72 HOURS.  A\r\nCOUPLE OF RELIABLE TRACK MODELS BRING IVO ON TRACK MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.\r\n \r\nUNTIL THE STORM STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST IN THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS...IVO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINS IN COASTAL\r\nREGIONS WITH FLASH FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 17.6N 106.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N 110.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 21.5N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 24.0N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14.  THE AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS \r\nA RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST \r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL \r\nAND GFNL MODELS BRING THE STORM FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO MOVE ACROSS BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE OTHERS MOVE IVO AWAY FROM LAND.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND BRINGS THE CENTER TO ABOUT \r\n120 N MI OF SOUTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS REQUIRES A \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  THERE HAS BEEN AN \r\nINCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT IT IS NOT \r\nYET WELL ORGANIZED.  THE NEARBY VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS OFF NEAR 20 \r\nKNOTS BUT WEAKENS SO THAT THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL BACKS OFF A LITTLE ON STRENGTHENING \r\nIVO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BRINGING THE WIND TO 60 \r\nKNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 18.3N 107.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.2N 109.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 20.8N 111.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14.  THE AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nA RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR \r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL MODEL WHICH HAS PREVIOUSLY MOVED THE \r\nSTORM ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA NOW HAS A TRACK THAT REMAINS OFFSHORE \r\nLIKE THE OTHER GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE GFDL MODEL RUN IN THE \r\nNOGAPS ENVIRONMENT...IT STILL MOVES THE CENTER NORTHWARD OVER LAND.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND IS QUITE \r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON SOME \r\nQUIKSCAT WINDS.  THERE HAS BEEN TREMENDOUS CONVECTION NORTH OF THE \r\nCENTER BUT THE TOPS THERE ARE NOW WARMING.  DECREASING SHEAR ALLOWS \r\nFOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE COLD WATER IS ENCOUNTERED AFTER 48 \r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.  OTHER \r\nGUIDANCE WEAKENS THE STORM. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 18.8N 108.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 19.9N 110.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 21.7N 112.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 23.1N 114.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 24.3N 116.1W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W    55 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM\r\nLOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...UNLIKE\r\nYESTERDAY...THE SURFACE CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED\r\nON EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 AND\r\n3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nAHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BOTH SHIPS \r\nAND SHIFOR ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY TREND OF THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE STORM \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE AVIATION AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO.  THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE FORECAST.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\nWHICH EARLIER HAD A TRACK ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO\r\nSHIFT THE TRACK WESTWARD...MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHE GFDL WITH NOGAPS INITIALIZATION REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 19.7N 109.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 21.0N 111.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N 119.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IVO IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE \r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH SOME NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR\r\nPERSISTS OVER THE SYSTEM...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS ALLOWING SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR. THE SYSTEM THEN WEAKENS\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO INCREASINGLY COLDER\r\nWATER.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM OVER MEXICO WHICH SUPPORTS THE GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST. FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE\r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING STEERING FLOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...CLOSELY\r\nMIRRORING GUNS AND CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 20.7N 110.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 22.0N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 24.6N 116.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 25.5N 118.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 26.5N 120.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS \r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING FOR A DAY OR SO UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND \r\nTHEN COOLER WATER SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT IVO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE 18Z AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS A NARROW RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IVO. \r\n THIS SHOULD KEEP IVO ON A 310 DEGREE HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND \r\nAVIATION MODELS ALL SHOW THIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS \r\nOF THESE MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 21.4N 111.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 22.7N 113.1W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 23.9N 115.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 24.9N 116.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 25.9N 120.5W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KNOTS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nLESSENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECASTS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHERE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER.  THE 00Z\r\nAVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nWITH A NARROW RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD AND THIS KEEPS IVO ON A\r\nNORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE AVIATION...GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON AN SSMI IMAGE AT 04Z THAT SHOWS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CLOUD CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 22.2N 111.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 23.5N 113.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 25.8N 117.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 26.4N 118.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 26.7N 120.4W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB ALONG WITH A\r\n2.5 FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL...SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AT 45 KT. BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING IS\r\nALREADY WEAKENING WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO WARM.\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND WITH\r\nCOLDER WATERS AHEAD...NO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.\r\nSHIPS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION...IS\r\nNOW INDICATING VERY LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WITH\r\nA STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nSHIPS BEYOND THE FIRST 12 HOURS IN THE DECAY OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME.  A MIDDLE LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD IS KEEPING IVO\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nGUNS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADIUS IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION IN THE AREA THAT HAD WINDS\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. SIMILARLY...WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON PERSISTENT\r\nBOUY/SHIP DATA INDICATING SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nFORECAST. THIS ALSO AGREES WITH A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0000\r\nUTC LAST NIGHT THAT CAUGHT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 23.4N 113.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 24.4N 114.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 25.3N 115.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N 117.1W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 26.6N 118.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 27.5N 121.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nCONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE\r\nDAY...LIKELY THE RESULT OF IVO MOVING INTO COLDER WATERS. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATE\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0/3.0 FROM\r\nTAFB...2.0/2.5 FROM SAB...AND AN EARLIER 2.5/2.5 FROM AIR FORCE\r\nGLOBAL SUPPORT DROPPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS\r\nADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS\r\nEARLIER...IVO HAS MISSED THE OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY. NOW MOVING\r\nINTO COLD WATER...24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LESS...NO FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BEGINS\r\nTO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A REFLECTION OF THIS.\r\n \r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH A WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL\r\nRIDGE PROVIDING THE STEERING FOR IVO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE \r\nAVIATION MODEL TAKES WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS SYSTEM FURTHER WEST...\r\nWHILE NOGAPS TURNS THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN EITHER EVENT...THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GUNS\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE \r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR \r\nRAINFALL IN THIS AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 24.3N 114.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 25.3N 115.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 26.7N 117.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 27.4N 118.6W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 28.0N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2001\r\n \r\nIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IVOS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY..\r\nSUGGESTING THE IMPACT OF THE COLD WATER THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING\r\nOVER.  THE LAST DEVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 40 AND 30 KNOTS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET\r\nAT 35 KNOTS...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO\r\nBEGIN DISSIPATING IN 24 HOURS AND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH A WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL\r\nRIDGE PROVIDING THE STEERING...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...FOR IVO OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE AVIATION MODEL TAKES WHAT IS LEFT OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM FURTHER WEST...WHILE NOGAPS TURNS THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWEST.\r\nIN EITHER EVENT...THE CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nRAINFALL IN THIS AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 25.0N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N 116.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 27.2N 117.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 28.1N 118.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 29.2N 118.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT IVO HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS VISIBLE.  AT 06 UTC A SHIP PASSING\r\nJUST EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SOUTHEAST WIND AT 20 KNOTS.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 23 DEGREE CENTIGRADE WATER AND WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK INTO EVEN COLDER WATER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 30 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...IVO IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING IN 12 HOURS\r\nAND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/6...SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME WITH A WEAK LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL\r\nRIDGE PROVIDING THE STEERING...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...FOR IVO.  THE\r\nAVIATION AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MAY INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nRAINFALL IN THIS AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 25.4N 115.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N 116.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 26.5N 117.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 26.8N 118.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS \r\nCONTINUE TO DEMINISH...AND IVO DOES NOT HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT \r\nCONVECTION AT THIS TIME.  WITH WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C IT IS \r\nUNLIKELY TO DEVELOP ANY MORE.  IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM \r\nWILL NOT QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9.  THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS \r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW \r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 25.3N 116.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 25.5N 117.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 25.8N 119.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N 120.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2001\r\n \r\nIVO HAS BEEN WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 03Z...AND\r\nWITH THE CENTER OVER 23C WATER...NONE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN.\r\nWITHOUT CONVECTION IVO IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED TO BE A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS \r\nMORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 25 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  THE REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 25.1N 117.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 25.1N 118.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 25.1N 120.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 25.0N 121.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-21 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF \r\nTHE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY \r\nDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT...FROM AN ALTITUDE OF 5000 \r\nFT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE STEPPED \r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...REPORTED AN AREA OF 50 KT \r\nSURFACE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE \r\nVALUES.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS A SMALL CYCLONE.  SMALL SYSTEMS ARE PRONE TO RAPID \r\nCHANGES IN INTENSITY...UP OR DOWN.    UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT APPEARS \r\nONLY FAIR...BUT THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM.  THE SYSTEM IS ALSO RATHER \r\nCLOSE TO LAND. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY \r\nOR SO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT \r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING \r\nCOULD OCCUR THEN.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM \r\nMOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17.  THIS \r\nRAPID PACE IS DUE IN PART TO THE LOCATION OF THE SMALL CYCLONE \r\nBETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE WAVE THAT SPAWNED THE SYSTEM.  IT SEEMS \r\nUNLIKELY THAT THIS FORWARD SPEED CAN BE MAINTAINED FOR LONG.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH WAS \r\nINITIALIZED TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1800Z 13.4N  94.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.8N  95.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.4N  98.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.0N 100.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN 2 \r\nMB OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 52 KT... \r\nREDUCING TO ABOUT 40 KTS AT THE SURFACE. THE STEPPED FREQUENCY \r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...REPORTED AN AREA OF 60 KT SURFACE \r\nWINDS ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE VORTEX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nINCREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THIS DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 72 \r\nHOURS. THE WATER IS QUITE WARM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO IN CLOSE \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP \r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS \r\n285/17...HOWEVER...THIS FORWARD SPEED SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE \r\nTO THE NORTH WEAKENS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING EAST PACIFIC \r\nTROUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL \r\nAND AVN FORECASTS...BUT THE UKMET FORWARD SPEED IS MUCH SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER HOLWEG/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 13.7N  94.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.3N  97.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.9N  99.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 101.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.6N 103.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001\r\n\r\nRADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF \r\nJULIETTE PASSING TO ITS SOUTH.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE \r\nCLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN \r\nORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT AS DEEP AS \r\nEARLIER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS \r\nLOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS \r\nJULIETTE TO 100 KNOTS BY 60 HOURS.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 \r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE \r\nGULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN \r\nSO JULIETTE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A \r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CORE \r\nOF JULIETTE ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER \r\n...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE \r\nCOAST.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED \r\nACCORDINGLY.\r\n\r\nLONG RANGE MODELS ARE BRINGING AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH \r\nTO THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  THIS PATTERN COULD STEER JULIETTE \r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE GULF OF CORTES. THIS \r\nIS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFDL AND THE LATEST AVN. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD \r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIETTE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 14.0N  96.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N  99.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.3N 101.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 104.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD \r\nSHIFT IN THE CENTER OF JULIETTE ALONG WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN THE \r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL \r\nTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...A TIGHT CURL OF \r\nMODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS COILED AROUND THE APPARENT CENTER OF \r\nCIRCULATION.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17.  THE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN\r\nTHE CENTER AND EROSION OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION MAY HAVE BEEN\r\nDUE TO DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTAPEC.  HOWEVER...\r\nCONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DURING\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TAKING JULIETTE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH\r\nAFTER THAT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  AND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE RESULT IS AN EXPECTED EROSION\r\nOF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY MOVE MORE\r\nPOLEWARD IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECATS\r\nTRCAK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 12 HOURS...AND IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE AVN AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS WHEN JULIETTE \r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE MEXICAN COASTAL \r\nMOUNTAINS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED\r\n...WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL WHICH TAKES THE \r\nCYCLONE UP TO 113 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL SEEMS TO BE OVERDOING \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 13.6N  98.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.7N  99.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.2N 101.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N 102.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 104.2W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE CONTINUES TO THE WEST...AT 270/15.  THIS LESSENS THE \r\nPRESENT THREAT TO THE COAST AND WATCHES/WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED.  \r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A CHRONIC NORTHWARD \r\nBIAS IN THE EAST PACIFIC GENERALLY AND WITH JULIETTE SO FAR...MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT APPROACH THE \r\nCOAST FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTH \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  INTERESTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JULIETTE AS WATCHES OR \r\nWARNINGS COULD WELL BE REQUIRED AGAIN TOMORROW.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 \r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...RECON DATA YESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THE DVORAK \r\nTECHNIQUE IS NOT WORKING WELL WITH THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVN DOES NOT SHOW NEARLY AS \r\nMUCH INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS RESPONDING TO \r\nANTICIPATED LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 13.6N  99.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 101.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.8N 104.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT.  SINCE \r\nTHEN...THERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.  \r\nYESTERDAY RECON INDICATED THIS CYCLONE HAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.  A \r\nMICROWAVE PASS AT 13Z SHOWED A WELL DEFINED INNER CORE...AND I WOULD \r\nNOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE AN EYE DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT 12 \r\nHOURS.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER AHEAD...CONTINUED \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WESTWARD...BUT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS \r\nSLOWED CONSIDERABLY...265/9.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE THE \r\nOUTLIER...SHOWING A SHARP TURN BACK TO THE COAST AFTER 36 HOURS.  \r\nEXAMINATION OF THE GFDL FIELDS SHOWS A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A \r\nMID-LEVEL VORTEX ANALYZED IN THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT.  ALL THE \r\nREMAINING GUIDANCE TAKES JULIETTE ON A GENTLY CURVING TRACK ROUGHLY \r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST.  GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIAS OF THE GFDL IN \r\nTHIS BASIN...IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THAT IT ALONE HAS THE ANSWER.  \r\nMORE LIKELY THE GFDL TRACK IS RELATED TO A PROBLEM WITH THE FLOW \r\nDECOMPOSITION OF THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX IN THE MODEL.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND  \r\nINDICATIONS ARE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE \r\nAPPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA BY MID-WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 13.5N 100.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 13.5N 101.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.7N 102.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.2N 103.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 104.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 106.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 \r\nHOURS AS INDICATED BY A APPEARANCE OF A DEVELOPING CDO OVER THE LAST \r\nFEW HOURS...ALONG WITH IMPROVED OUTER BANDING BANDING FEATURES.  IN \r\nFACT...AROUND 2215Z A NICE DOUGHNUT RING OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED \r\nAROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT AN EYE \r\nMAY BE DEVELOPING OR HAS ALREADY FORMED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nBASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT...T3.5... \r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE \r\nOVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. JULIETTE HAS MADE A SLIGHT \r\nJOG TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED \r\nTO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION BASED ON RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTRAL \r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THE LARGE THERMAL RIDGE IN THE MID- AND \r\nUPPER-LEVELS ACROSS MEXICO SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A \r\nGENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT...JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING SLOWLY \r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD AS THE \r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN AMPLIFIES DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP \r\nPACIFIC MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A POWERFUL DIGGING TROUGH \r\nTO THE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  THE FORWARD SPEED WAS \r\nDECREASED IN THE LATTER PERIODS SINCE JULIETTE WILL BE TRYING TO \r\nMOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS AND IS JUST A \r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE AVN... BUT MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS \r\nMODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS TAKE THE \r\nCYCLONE DUE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR ZIHUATANEJO \r\nMEXICO IN 60 HOURS.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH... \r\nTHESE TWO MODELS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AND WERE DISCOUNTED.\r\n\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  \r\nHOWEVER... I AM A LITTLE PUZZLED AT THE RATHER CONSERVATIVE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THAT JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A \r\nLOW SHEAR...LESS THAN 8 KT...ENVIRONMENT AND TRACK OVER 29C TO 30C \r\nSSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT OF THE FAVORABLE SST AND \r\nSHEAR PATTERNS EXPECTED...I WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL AT 72 HOURS.  IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT JULIETTE COULD \r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...IF IT CAN MAINTAIN ITS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 14.2N 100.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.6N 101.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.3N 103.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 104.1W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N 105.3W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 107.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED.  A SMALL CDO HAS \r\nFORMED AND A WEAK WARM SPOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE CENTER OF THE \r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 0319Z SSMI AND A 0331Z \r\nTRMM OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT A CLOSED EYE HAS FORMED IN THE \r\nLOW-LEVELS AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE MID-LEVELS.  THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE INFORMATION AND \r\nA DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 TO 60 KT...T3.5...FROM \r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE \r\nOVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING OR TRACK.  NOW THAT A \r\nBETTER DEFINED CENTER CAN BE IDENTIFIED...THERE SHOULD BE LESS \r\nJUMPING AROUND IN THE ADVISORY POSITIONS AND BETTER CONTINUITY \r\nBETWEEN FORECAST TRACKS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AREA IN EXCELLENT \r\nAGREEMENT ON TAKING JULIETTE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 24 TO 36 \r\nHOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING IT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 48 HOURS... \r\nAND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A \r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS \r\nBETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL TRACKS...WHICH WERE VERY CLOSE TO \r\nEACH OTHER FROM THE 00Z RUNS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL CROSSES BACK AND \r\nFORTH ACROSS THE AVN-UKMET CONSENSUS...SO THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH \r\nCONFIDENCE THAT JULIETTE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST BY \r\n72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFDN WERE IGNORED SINCE THEY HAVE CONTINUED \r\nTHEIR RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS AND TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER SOUTHWEST \r\nMEXICO NEAR ZIHUATANEJO IN 48 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN \r\nTHE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nOTHER AVAILABLE NHC MODELS.\r\n\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND \r\nJULIETTE MAY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL...AS WELL AS ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUES TO \r\nINDICATE THAT JULIETTE WILL REMAIN IN A WEAKELY SHEARED...LESS THAN \r\n10 KT...UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  AS A RESULT...I HAVE GONE A LITTLE \r\nABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST OF 91 AND 93 KT AT 48 HOURS AND \r\n72 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH JULIETTE ALREADY \r\nHAVING A SMALL TIGHT INNER-CORE... AND AN EXPECTED TRACK OVER 29C TO \r\n30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY AT ALL TIMES.  AS A RESULT... \r\nWATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF \r\nTHE WEST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF MANZANILLO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 14.8N 101.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.4N 102.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 104.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.1N 105.1W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 18.2N 106.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 107.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nVIS AND IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE ARE PLENTY OF \r\nBANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS AT THIS \r\nTIME. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM..SO ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A \r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE EYE IS VISIBLE...THERE IS A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nLOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE.  JULIETTE IS MOVING\r\n280 ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 500 MB HIGH TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF JULIETTE IN COMBINATION WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF\r\nA STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LIKELY\r\nFORCE JULIETTE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nENSEMBLE...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LASTEST GFDL RUNS BRING THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK TOWARD MEXICO.\r\n\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY A SMALL \r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO \r\nTHE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE \r\nWATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST AT THIS TIME. WATCHES OR WARNINGS \r\nWILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD GRADUALLY. \r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST \r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 14.8N 102.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 105.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.5N 108.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS DEVELOPED A PINHOLE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL \r\nDENSE OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE 100 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND \r\nOCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. \r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS RESUMED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE \r\nHURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH THROUGH A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN \r\nAPPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH PLACE JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN \r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT ONLY A SMALL\r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST AT THIS\r\nTIME.  \r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 15.0N 103.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 104.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 107.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS \r\nAND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE \r\nSCALE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT BASED ON A \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KT...T6.0...FROM TAFB... \r\nA 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 \r\nKT...ODT7.0...AND A SMALL PINHOLE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS \r\nHELD BELOW THE ODT VALUE BASED ON THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD REQUIRING \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL TIME TO SPIN UP AND CATCH UP WITH THE SATELLITE \r\nSIGNATURES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS IMPRESSIVE AND IS EXPANDING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/03...BASED ON AN EXPECTED \r\nRESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD COURSE.  DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...JULIETTE \r\nHAS ACTUALLY MADE SEVERAL SMALL CYCLONIC LOOPS... BUT THE GENERAL \r\nMOTION HAS BEEN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST.  THIS TYPE OF ERRATIC \r\nMOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT UNDERGO RAPID \r\nDEEPENING.  HOWEVER...THE SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN FAVORS A RETURN TO A \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN TIME.  \r\nALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE JULIETTE NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS \r\nCURRENT POSITION...EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE WEST \r\nAND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST WEST OF ALL THE \r\nMODELS.  THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE TAKE JULIETTE TOWARD BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA OR INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS \r\nCONTINUE THEIR TREND OF A SHARP RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS AND HAVE THE \r\nHURRICANE INLAND NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WHICH I \r\nFEEL IS A LITTLE PREMATURE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE \r\nCURRENTLY RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 18 HOURS INTO A TYPICAL 30-HOUR RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND.  AS SUCH...ANOTHER 12 HOURS OF RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BASED ON THE 140 KT ODT SATELLITE \r\nSIGNATURE AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT THAT \r\nIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  IT IS QUITE \r\nPOSSIBLE AND PLAUSIBLE THAT JULIETTE COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS JULIETTE \r\nUP TO 135 KT IN 12 HOURS AND 140 KT IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO \r\nSOME COLD OCEAN UPWELLING EXPECTED SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ONLY \r\nFORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY \r\nMOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AFTER THAT.  HOWEVER...IF JULIETTE \r\nMOVES A LITTLE FASTER AND SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN IT COULD REACH \r\n140 KT IN 12 HOURS AND ALSO BE STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS INDICATING AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS.\r\n \r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...AND THE FACT \r\nTHAT ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING \r\nSTRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO PROMPTED THE \r\nISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FOR A \r\nPORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. JULIETTE IS A POTENTIALLY \r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 14.9N 103.5W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.3N 104.4W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.2N 105.3W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.3N 106.2W   125 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.6N 107.2W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-24 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL \r\nPRESSURE OF 959 MB AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 90 KTS ON THE \r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED \r\nTO 100 KTS.  THE AIRCRAFT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF \r\nTHE HURRICANE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND \r\nWILL LIKELY BE MEASURED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 285/03.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FORECASTING JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE GFDL\r\nMODEL WHICH TAKES JULIETTE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGFDL MODEL SOMETIMES HAS DIFFICULTIES WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN\r\nCAUSING A BIAS IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.6N 104.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N 106.5W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 107.4W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.2N 108.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KT...T6.5...FROM TAFB...A 3-HOUR AVERAGE\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127 KT...ODT6.5...AND A SMALL\r\nPINHOLE EYE DIAMETER OF ABOUT 5 NM.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY \r\nSYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...BASED ON AN EXPECTED\r\nRESUMPTION OF A WESTWARD COURSE.  DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...JULIETTE\r\nHAS ACTUALLY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A GENERAL MOTION TO \r\nTHE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THERE IS \r\nMUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND CONVERGENCE AMONG THE NHC MODELS. NOGAPS \r\nIS BACK IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE THIS MODEL RUN...AND \r\nEVEN THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS KEEP JULIETTE OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWEST \r\nCOAST OF MEXICO FOR THE FIRST TIME. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF ALL THE \r\nMODELS IS A MOTION TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SOUTHERN \r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA IN 72 TO 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE \r\nTO THE LEFT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS \r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT TOPS HAVE WARMED \r\nSLIGHTLY AROUND THE EYE AND ALSO SUGGEST THAT JULIETTE MAY BE GOING \r\nTHROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF VERY \r\nINTENSE HURRICANES LIKE THIS ONE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS \r\nJULIETTE UP TO 137 KT IN 12 HOURS AND 139 KT IN 24 HOURS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT SLIGHTLY \r\nLOWER DUE TO POSSIBLE COLD WATER UPWELLING OCCURRING BENEATH THE \r\nCYCLONE SINCE JULIETTE IS ONLY FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER \r\nAFTER THAT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE \r\nCYCLONE AROUND 1800Z TODAY AND FINALLY PROVIDE SOME GROUND TRUTH ON \r\nTHE TRUE INTENSITY OF THIS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST \r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 14.9N 103.6W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.4N 104.2W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.9N 105.9W   125 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 106.9W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N 107.8W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY BASED UPON RECENT\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127\r\nKT...T6.5...FROM TAFB AND 115 KT...T6.0...FROM SAB KEEPS INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AT 125 KT.  FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nJULIETTE IS PROGRESSING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE\r\n12Z SHIPS MODEL IS NOW FORECASTING SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE\r\nAROUND 1800Z TODAY AND PROVIDE GROUND TRUTH ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS \r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 285/03.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN \r\nAGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FORECASTING JULIETTE IN THE VICINITY OF \r\nTHE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE GFDL \r\nMODEL WHICH TAKES JULIETTE ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.  HOWEVER...THE \r\nGFDL MODEL SOMETIMES HAS DIFFICULTIES WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN \r\nCAUSING A BIAS IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nJULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 15.2N 103.9W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.6N 104.5W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N 106.5W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 107.4W   115 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.2N 108.0W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM SEA LEVEL\r\nPRESSURE OF 957 MB IN THE EYE AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 94\r\nKTS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE HURRICANE AS IT HEADED FOR HOME.\r\nREDUCTION FROM FLIGHT LEVEL ALTITUDE TO THE SURFACE WOULD GIVE A\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 85 TO 90 KTS.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KTS.  IF THE SYSTEM IS GOING \r\nTHROUGH AN EYEWALL CYCLE THAN SOME STRENGTHENING COULD BE POSSIBLE \r\nIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SHIPS WANTS TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT PART OF \r\nTHE INPUT TO SHIPS IS PERSISTENCE WHICH IS A LARGE NEGATIVE FACTOR \r\nIN THE 18Z FORECAST.  THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR WAS INTRODUCED BY THE \r\nSHARP REDUCTION IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE RECON DATA.  THE BEST COURSE \r\nOF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS INVARIANT THROUGH 72 HOURS \r\nFOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/04.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW \r\nSHIFTING TOWARD THE WEST... SUGGESTING THAT THE WEAK RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE STRONGER THAN WAS INITIALLY FORECAST.  \r\nTHE AVN AND NOGAPS ARE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL AND THE GFDL REMAINS TO \r\nTHE EAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 15.4N 104.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 105.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 106.7W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 107.7W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.9N 109.4W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...JULIETTE HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER PERIOD OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE RE-APPEARANCE OF A WELL-DEFINED\r\n10NM DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A\r\nRING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...-75C TO -80C...SURROUNDING THE EYE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT...T6.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AN ESTIMATE OF 102 KT...T5.5...FROM AFWA...AND A 3-HR AVERAGE\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 125 KT...ODT6.4.  THE\r\nINTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN BELOW THE ODT VALUES AND THE TAFB AND SAB\r\nESTIMATES TO ALLOW THE WIND FIELD TO CATCH UP WITH THE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE...SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE \r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO WEST...EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS.  THE UKMET AND \r\nAVN MODELS ARE THE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT AND VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER \r\n...WHILE NOGAPS IS NOW THE FARTHEST MODEL TO THE RIGHT.  THE UKMET \r\nAND AVN MODELS KEEP JULIETTE WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL TAKES JULIETTE INTO THE GULF \r\nOF CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE ALMOST \r\nIDENTICAL IN THEIR TRACKS AND ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE \r\nSUITE. THEY BRING THE HURRICANE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA IN 60 TO \r\n72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL-GFDN CONSENSUS...ONLY A \r\nLITTLE SLOWER OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER AVN AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT JULIETTE IS NO LONGER STATIONARY LIKE LAST NIGHT...SOME \r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST WAS KEPT STEADY THROUGH 24 HOURS UNTIL A PERSISTENT \r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS SIMILAR \r\nTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS JULIETTE AFTER 24 \r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...PART OF THE WEAKENING BIAS IS DUE TO THE INTENSITY \r\nPERSISTENCE PARAMETER WHICH WAS A LARGE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN THE 18Z \r\nAND 00Z FORECASTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE \r\nFOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH AT LEAST 36 HOURS...AND THE NEXT ADVISORY \r\nMAY HAVE TO INDICATE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AS ALLUDED TO IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY NUMBER 15 FORECAST DISCUSSION.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 15.7N 105.0W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 105.9W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 17.3N 106.9W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.3N 107.8W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 21.2N 109.5W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO STRENGTHEN BASED ON A 10NM DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WELL INTO A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF -75C TO -82C TEMPERATURES.  THE VERY\r\nCONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KT...T7.0...FROM\r\nTAFB...AN ESTIMATE OF 115 KT...T6.0...FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND A 3-HR\r\nAVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...ODT7.0.  THE\r\nINTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN BELOW THE ODT VALUES AND THE TAFB ESTIMATE\r\nONLY BECAUSE RECON WILL BE OUT TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND\r\n1800Z TODAY.  JULIETTE IS POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INDICATING AND RECON WILL PROBABLY BEAR THIS OUT LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL \r\nSHIFTED TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE NHC MODEL ENVELOPE...WITH THE UKMET \r\nMODEL THE FARTHEST LEFT AND THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS ALMOST ON TOP \r\nOF EACH OTHER.  THE GFDL HAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSE TO THE \r\nAVN-NOGAPS CONSENSUS.  THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS KEEP JULIETTE ABOUT \r\n100 NM SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE \r\nGFDN HAS MAINTAINED A CONSISTENT TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS \r\nTHE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 \r\nTO 60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC \r\nMODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE 2 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS...AND \r\nJUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDN SOLUTION. THIS BRINGS JULIETTE CLOSE TO \r\nTHE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 60 TO 72 HOURS AS A \r\nPOSSIBLE MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.  JULIETTE HAS SHOWN A \r\nPROPENSITY FOR STRENGTHENING AT NIGHT...ONLY TO WEAKEN DURING THE \r\nDAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE RECON CAN GET OUT THERE.  NOW THAT JULIETTE IS \r\nMOVING AGAIN...THE EFFECTS FROM COLD WATER UPWELLING THAT MAY HAVE \r\nOCCURRED YESTERDAY AND POSSIBLY BROUGHT ABOUT THE SIGNIFICANT \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BE LESSENED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO \r\nREMAIN EXCELLENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND...THEREFORE...SOME \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS.  \r\nAFTER THAT...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO \r\nMOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. NOTE...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY \r\nTHAT JULIETTE COULD UNDERGO ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING \r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING RATHER THAN \r\nSTRENGTHENING...JUST ABOUT THE TIME RECON GETS OUT THERE AGAIN.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE REMAINS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 16.2N 105.5W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.9N 106.3W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.9N 107.3W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.1N 108.2W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.2N 109.1W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 22.6N 110.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THE CLASSIC PRESENTATION \r\nOF A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE.  THE EYE IS EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED AND \r\nESTIMATED TO BE 15 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE...120 KT...MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A \r\nHIGHER WIND SPEED...HOWEVER AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS \r\nYESTERDAY SHOWED THAT THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAD A HIGH BIAS.  \r\nANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JULIETTE LATER \r\nTODAY...AND THIS SHOULD GIVE A BETTER GAUGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE \r\nHURRICANE.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY \r\nOR SO...ALTHOUGH FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO INNER CORE VARIABILITY...E.G. \r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE POSSIBLE. \r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND INITIAL \r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/9.  LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT \r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTH OF JULIETTE SHOULD SHIFT \r\nEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO \r\nTURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE MORE WESTWARD \r\nINITIAL MOTION AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL \r\nFORECAST TRACKS.  \r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS NOW PASSING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF CABO\r\nCORRIENTES...WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nHOWEVER...SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS NOT OFF THE HOOK YET.\r\nINTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 16.3N 106.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 17.1N 107.9W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.3N 109.3W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 20.8N 111.4W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT JULIETTE\r\nIS AN INTENSE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.  THE MINIMUM SEA LEVEL\r\nPRESSURE...MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WAS 923 MB.  WHEREAS A NUMBER OF\r\nPAST HURRICANES HAVE HAD LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURES ESTIMATED BY\r\nSATELLITE...THIS IS APPARENTLY THE SECOND LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE\r\nMEASUREMENT ON RECORD IN AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE.  ONLY\r\nAVA IN JUNE OF 1973 HAD A LOWER MEASURED PRESSURE...915 MB.  MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 131 KNOTS...AT 700 MB.  USING THE 90 PERCENT\r\nCONVERSION FACTOR YIELDS 120 KNOTS FOR THE SURFACE WIND.\r\nHOWEVER...FOR SUCH A LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A SMALL EYE WE FEEL IT\r\nIS WARRANTED TO NUDGE THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE UPWARD JUST SLIGHTLY.\r\nTHE RECON DATA SUGGESTS THE FORMATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND\r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE INNER CORE CHANGES ARE\r\nLIKELY OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nTHEREAFTER DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW AS RAPID A WEAKENING AS THE SHIPS \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK TODAY...BUT THE \r\nOVERALL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/10.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK \r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE \r\nTHAT THE 500 MB HIGH OVER NORTHERN BAJA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND \r\nSHIFT EASTWARD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE'S HEADING TO VEER TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTHWEST...AND EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE \r\nALSO INDICATES A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED.  \r\n\r\nEVEN IF JULIETTE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER BAJA...\r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH SHOULD SOON BE REQUIRED FOR \r\nPORTIONS OF THAT PENINSULA DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SEVERE \r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 16.5N 107.7W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 20.3N 110.8W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N 111.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n\r\nJULIETTE REMAINS A LARGE AND VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE EVENING.  WHILE THE EYE HAS RECENTLY\r\nBECOME CLOUD-FILLED...TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED A LITTLE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 140 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND\r\n127 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 125 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT THIS EVENING WHICH\r\nPUTS IT MORE OR LESS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE 12 HR\r\nMOTION IS 290/8...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A STRONG TROUGH\r\nWEST OF THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH DIGS\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 72 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...TAKING JULIETTE\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nAN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0112Z INDICATES THAT JULIETTE IS FORMING\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALLS.  SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE\r\nLIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR.\r\nIN THE LONGER TERM...JULIETTE SHOULD MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER\r\nWATER AND BEING WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...THE HIGH INTENSITY...LARGE\r\nSIZE...AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS\r\nSTORM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWER THAN THE NORM FOR THIS AREA...AND THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS JULIETTE A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH 48 HR.\r\n\r\nSHIP 3FIF8 REPORTED 40 KT WINDS JUST SOUTH OF MANZANILLO AT 00Z...\r\nAND MANZANILLO REPORTED 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT IN A SQUALL.  THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO...AND THUS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE AGAIN IN\r\nEFFECT FOR THIS REGION.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED\r\nFOR BAJA CALIFORNIA BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII.\r\nSHIP V7AP3 REPORTED 34 KT WINDS 320 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 00Z\r\nALONG WITH 26 FT SEAS.  WHILE THE SEAS LOOK SOMEWHAT HIGH...SSM/I\r\nDATA INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nEXTENDING TO AT LEAST 10N IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT.  34 KT WIND AND\r\n12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND\r\nMAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 17.1N 108.2W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.8N 109.2W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.3N 110.3W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN A BIT SINCE\r\nTHE LAST RECON AT 21Z...AND ARE NOW 127 KT.  EYEWALL CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT LOOKS AS\r\nTHOUGH AN OUTER EYEWALL IS TRYING TO FORM.  SINCE THE RECON DATA\r\nEARLIER SHOWED THAT JULIETTE WAS NOT AS STRONG AS THE\r\nCONTEMPORANEOUS DVORAK ESTIMATE...I AM LOWERING THE INTENSITY TO 120\r\nKT...AND I SUSPECT THAT THE WINDS ARE EVEN A LITTLE LESS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AROUND A TRACK OF 310/8...WHICH IS TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A\r\nSTRONG TROUGH WEST OF THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT A LITTLE\r\nEASTWARD AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD CALIFORNIA.  THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LATEST RUNS OF THE AVN AND UKMET INDICATE THAT BY 72 \r\nHOURS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ALLOWS RIDGING TO RE-ESTABLISH NORTH \r\nOF JULIETTE.  THIS RESULTS IN A TURN TO THE WEST IN BOTH OF THESE \r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT BENDS THE TRACK TO THE LEFT BY DAY THREE.\r\n\r\nSHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH WOULD NOT BE UNEXPECTED IF AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS.  IN THE LONGER TERM...JULIETTE\r\nSHOULD MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER AND BEING WEAKENING.\r\nHOWEVER...THE HIGH INTENSITY...LARGE SIZE...AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT ALL SUGGEST THAT THIS STORM SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWER THAN\r\nMANY STORMS IN THIS AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 17.7N 108.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 19.8N 110.8W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.1N 111.9W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N 113.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 115.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JULIETTE WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS\r\nWRAPPING AROUND A SMALL EYE AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\nDEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...\r\nCONSEQUENTLY DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 115 KT.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS MAY OCCUR\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE\r\nCYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE WOBBLING ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION\r\nDURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION IS 315/08.\r\nJULIETTE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AN\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY ERODE THIS RIDGE ALLOWING JULIETTE TO\r\nTRACK IN A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE RIDGE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REBUILD.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE LATEST\r\nUKMET-GFDL-AVN MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE CONTINUES TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE...AND ANY DEVIATION\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 18.6N 109.3W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 110.2W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.8N 111.2W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 21.8N 112.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED THAT THE INNER CORE\r\nOF JULIETTE CONSISTS OF TWO CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 7 AND 40 NM IN\r\nDIAMETER.  STRONGEST WINDS REPORTED SO FAR...ARE 97 KTS AT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL.  HOWEVER...FURTHER SAMPLING IS PRESENTLY UNDERWAY AND IF THE\r\nPLANE DOES NOT FIND HIGHER WINDS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED IN\r\nTHE NEXT ADVISORY.  IT IS KNOWN THAT DURING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nCYCLES...INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OCCUR.  AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 110 KT AND GRADUAL WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nOVERALL MOTION CONTINUES TO REMAIN AT 315/08.  MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT TAKING THE CYCLONE ON NORTHWEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE STEERING PATTERN RESULTING FROM A MID TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH.  IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND WILL LIKELY RESUME A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK.  THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS TO THIS SCENARIO ARE GIVEN BY\r\nTHE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH TAKES JULIETTE NORTHWARD AND THE UKMET MODEL\r\nWHICH ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THIS\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE WOULD REQUIRE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 19.1N 110.1W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 20.1N 110.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.4N 111.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 22.2N 112.8W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 22.7N 113.7W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 23.0N 115.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THIS\r\nEVENING THAT JULIETTE HAS THREE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...A RATHER\r\nUNCOMMON OCCURRENCE.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A SPREAD-OUT\r\nWINDFIELD WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT WELL NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...AND A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION SEEN\r\nIN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 95 KT.\r\nTHIS MAY BE GENEROUS...BUT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL\r\n943 MB THERE MAY BE STRONGER WINDS IN AREAS THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID\r\nNOT SAMPLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD THE U.S. WEST\r\nCOAST SHOULD KEEP JULIETTE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR 24-36 HR.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES RATHER DIVERGENT...WHICH\r\nIS USUALLY A SIGN THAT THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT TO SLOW DOWN.  MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE FAVORS A SLOWING AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DUE\r\nTO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE OUTLIERS SUCH AS THE\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE UKMET...WHICH\r\nCALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION.  THE LATTER WOULD END THE THREAT TO\r\nTHE COAST...WHILE THE FORMER WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ONSHORE.\r\n \r\nTHE PRESENCE OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SUGGESTS THAT JULIETTE IS\r\nNOT READY FOR ANOTHER SPURT OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE CENTER WILL\r\nLIKELY MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE\r\nENDS AND ANY STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED SOMEWHAT BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND\r\nSHIP DATA.\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF THIS\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE WOULD REQUIRE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 20.7N 111.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 21.8N 112.4W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 22.4N 113.3W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 22.8N 114.1W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND AVN...WHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...SHOW AN INCREASED THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...ESPECIALLY\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE RADIUS OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REPORTED BY EARLIER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nAVN AND GFDL TRACKS...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\nTHE ONLY SIGNIFICANT MODEL TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nTHE UKMET.  ONLY A VERY SMALL ERROR IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD\r\nBRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST...SO HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE\r\nREQUIRED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE STILL HAS MULTIPLE EYEWALLS.  THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED A LITTLE...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES SUPPORT 90 KT.  THE EARLIER RECON WINDS SUPPORTED A LITTLE \r\nLESS THAN THAT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO \r\n90 KT.  WHILE A PRESSURE OF 945 MB WOULD NORMALLY YIELD WINDS OF 115 \r\nTO 120 KT...THE STRUCTURE OF THE WIND FIELD INDICATES THAT THE \r\nPRESSURE DIFFERENTIAL IS BROADLY DISTRIBUTED AND NOT CONCENTRATED \r\nNEAR THE CORE.  WHILE THE INNER CORE WINDS MAY DROP OFF \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AS THE EYEWALL CYCLE PROGRESSES...JULIETTES LARGE AND \r\nRELATIVELY UNIFORM WINDFIELD SHOULD CHANGE MORE SLOWLY.  ONLY A SLOW \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER \r\nWATERS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 20.5N 110.6W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N 111.1W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.3N 111.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 22.9N 112.2W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 23.5N 113.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 24.5N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2001\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.\r\nHOWEVER...TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE\r\nINDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT. ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN STRENGTH MAY OCCUR TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND IS SLOW WEAKENING AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR 7 KTS RESPONDING\r\nTO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PULL NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY\r\nWHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR\r\nA MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK\r\nTHE CORE OF JULIETTE WILL NOT DIRECTLY HIT BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ONCE\r\nAGAIN...ONLY A VERY SMALL ERROR IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.\r\nALTHOUGH...MOST OF GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK TO THE LEFT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS RUN...THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION CANNOT BE\r\nIGNORED.  ALL PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE\r\nWARNING AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 21.1N 110.9W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 111.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 22.8N 112.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N 113.7W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 25.0N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN BUT\r\nSTILL HAS PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING SO INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH\r\nMAY OCCUR TODAY...THE OVERALL TREND IS SLOW WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 6 KNOTS DURING THE PAST \r\nFEW HOURS...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG UPPER-TROUGH NEARING \r\nTHE CALIFORNIA COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN \r\nRAPIDLY...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBUILD AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE AVN \r\nAND THE UK GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE JULIETTE TO TURN \r\nTO A WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST MOTION BEYOND 24 HOURS.  ON THIS \r\nTRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE \r\nWEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AT A VERY SLOW PACE DURING \r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. FORTUNATELY...THE OCEAN IS COLD AND JULIETTE \r\nSHOULD BE WEAKENING AS WELL. \r\n\r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD \r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 21.7N 110.9W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.9N 111.1W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N 111.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 25.5N 114.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 26.0N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JULIETTE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY \r\nWEAKEN THIS EVENING.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nAND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF A DRY SLOT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO INTERACTION WITH BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  CONVECTION HAS MARKEDLY INCREASED IN A BAND WELL\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\nWHERE THE WATER IS STILL VERY WARM.  BASED ON THE OBSERVED\r\nDECAY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED\r\nTO 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY GIVES NO\r\nOBVIOUS REASON FOR JULIETTE TO FOLLOW THIS TRACK...AS IT APPEARS\r\nTO BE MOVING STRAIGHT INTO A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nPERHAPS THE TAIL END OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST\r\nCOAST HAS WEAKENED THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE NORTHWARD TRACK.\r\nMUCH OF THE GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND EVEN WEST UNDER THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...THE ONLY\r\nMODEL FROM 24 HR AGO THAT ACTUALLY CAPTURED THE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...STILL WANTS TO TAKE JULIETTE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...CLIPER...NOGAPS...AND BAMD ARE WELL TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE FORECAST AFTER 24 HR.  SOME CONCERN HAS BEEN EXPRESSED\r\nABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF JULIETTE CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  WHILE SUCH A MOTION\r\nCANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT...THE THREE NORTHWARD-MOVING MODELS\r\nALL SLOW THE STORM AND KEEP IT SOUTH OF 29N AT 72 HR.\r\n \r\nSHOULD JULIETTE FOLLOW THE FORECAST TRACK...IT SHOULD BRUSH THE\r\nCOAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVE INTO THE COLDER WATER WEST OF THE\r\nPENINSULA.  IT WOULD ALSO LIKELY ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR.\r\nTHIS WOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THAT IS THE SCENARIO OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.  SHOULD JULIETTE MOVE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nTRACK INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THERE WOULD LIKELY BE A LOT\r\nLESS WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nEAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN\r\nMAINLAND.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE CENTER MAY TRACK MORE NORTHWARD THAN\r\nFORECAST...AND THE STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS FORMING OVER THE GULF\r\nOF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 22.6N 110.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 23.6N 110.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 25.2N 112.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 25.8N 113.8W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OVERNIGHT FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE \r\nHAD RISEN BY 27 MB IN THE 27 HOURS SINCE THE LAST FIX...AND DURING \r\nTHE MISSION THE PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO RISE AT ABOUT THE SAME \r\nRATE.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 79 KT IN THE NORTHWEST \r\nQUADRANT ABOUT 70-90 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE MAXIMUM WIND BAND \r\nWAS VERY BROAD.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 65 KT AT THE SURFACE \r\nUSING AN 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FOR THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL.  SHIP \r\n4XFD REPORTED WINDS OF 67 KT AT 0300Z IN THE SAME BAND OF CONVECTION \r\nWHERE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE 79 KT WINDS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE \r\nTHEREFORE SET TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THIS INTENSITY IS MUCH \r\nLESS THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A PRESSURE OF 971 \r\nMB...BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE BROAD WINDFIELD.  DEEP CONVECTION \r\nHAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING...EXCEPT IN AN OUTER RAINBAND \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY \r\nWEAKEN AS IT EDGES TOWARD COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nAFTER MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS...JULIETTE HAS TURNED \r\nAND SLOWED A LITTLE...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF 340/6.  THE CYCLONE \r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE \r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO BE DEFLECTED TO THE LEFT.  UNFORTUNATELY...THIS \r\nPLACES THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND RIGHT OVER THE BAJA \r\nPENINSULA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW \r\nOFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS FLATTENING OUT.  CONSISTENT WITH THIS \r\nTREND...BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET DEVELOP A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF \r\nJULIETTE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST \r\nLIFTS OUT.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS...AND \r\nCOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE...WHICH WOULD INCREASE \r\nTHE RAINFALL THREAT.  THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER \r\nTHAT...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL TAKING THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE \r\nCOAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS...AVN...AND NOGAPS-INITIALIZED GFDL HUGGING \r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE NOGAPS RECENT HISTORY IS THE DIFFERENCE IN \r\nMY DECISION TO FOLLOW THE LATTER COURSE.  \r\n\r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 23.1N 111.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 23.6N 111.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 24.2N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 24.7N 112.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N 113.2W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 27.5N 114.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001\r\n \r\nIR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED\r\nCONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF CURVED\r\nCLOUD BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING RAPIDLY AND JULIETTE IS\r\nBARELY A HURRICANE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN AS IT EDGES TOWARD COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nRAPIDLY AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS WOULD\r\nFORCE JULIETTE TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHWEST TRACK.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A WEAK SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  ON THIS TRACK...JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING ON TRACK\r\nPARALLEL TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR SEVERE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 23.3N 111.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 24.0N 111.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 24.7N 112.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 27.0N 115.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":31,"Date":"2001-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF JULIETTE IS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH A FEW BANDS OF \r\nDEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. BECAUSE CONVECTION HAS \r\nDECREASED...T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nBEING ADJUSTED TO 60 KNOTS. A SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH LAND.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY.  THE SLOW MOTION HAS\r\nPROLONGED THE EFFECTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  PRELIMINARY UNCONFIRMED REPORTS PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN\r\nWEATHER SERVICE INDICATE THAT CABO SAN LUCAS IS OBSERVING PEAK WINDS\r\nOF 60 MPH AT THIS TIME AND REGISTERED A GUST TO 107 MPH AT 01 UTC\r\nLAST NIGHT.  STEERING CURRENTS HAVE WEAKENED AND ONLY SMALL DRIFT\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST\r\nOF BAJA IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nJULIETTE WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE MAY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 23.3N 111.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 24.3N 111.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 25.0N 112.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 26.0N 113.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":32,"Date":"2001-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2001\r\n\r\nIN A RATHER SURPRISING TURN OF EVENTS...JULIETTE RE-DEVELOPED\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING WITH A PERSISTENT WARM SPOT\r\nEYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A SOLID 65 KT...SO JULIETTE IS UPGRADED\r\nBACK TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE EYE SEEMS TO BE WOBBLING A BIT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVING ASHORE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND WHAT\r\nAPPEARS TO MID LEVEL RIDGING BOTH WEST AND EAST OF JULIETTE.  THIS\r\nBEING TRAPPED BETWEEN THE RIDGES IS LIKELY ACCOUNTING FOR THE\r\nCURRENT SLOW MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE U.S.\r\nTROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING AS A SECOND STRONGER\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST OVER THE PACIFIC.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD\r\nALLOW JULIETTE TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  MOST\r\nOF THE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK THUS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION ALONG THE WEST COAST\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE IS SOME WESTERLY\r\nUPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHIS TO INCREASE AFTER 24 HR.  THIS COULD HELP PUSH JULIETTE MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS SUGGESTED BY BAMD AND NHC91UK.  THE STORM\r\nWILL BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED TO SEE IF THIS ALTERNATIVE IS\r\nHAPPENING.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE IS SITTING OVER AN AREA OF WARM WATER JUST SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...AND THIS HAS LIKELY\r\nBEEN ONE FACTOR CONTRIBUTING TO THE RE-INTENSIFICATION.  ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER LAND\r\nAND COLDER WATER...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  ADDITIONALLY...\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR NEAR BAJA AFTER 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nHOLD JULIETTE AT 65 KT FOR 12 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  SHOULD THE\r\nSTORM FOLLOW A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...IT WOULD PASS OVER THE WARM\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WEAKENING WOULD AT LEAST BE SLOWED IF THAT\r\nOCCURRED.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO\r\n30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 23.5N 110.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N 111.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 24.8N 111.8W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 25.4N 112.4W    45 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N 114.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juliette","Adv":33,"Date":"2001-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001\r\n \r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  RECENT\r\nSSMI AND TRMM PASSES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS LOCATED AT ABOUT THE SAME\r\nPOSITION AS 6 HOURS AGO AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  THE \r\n00Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFING NORTHEASTWARD \r\nFROM CALIFORNIA AND THE HURRICANE REMAINING TRAPPED BETWEEN RIDGING \r\nON ALL SIDES.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SLOW NORTH TO \r\nNORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS \r\nA CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  THE BAMDEEP...LBAR AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE \r\nOUTLYERS SHOWING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...BUT THIS IS \r\nRELATED TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND MOST LIKELY INDICATES \r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR RATHER THAN A STORM MOTION. \r\n \r\nA SYMMETRIC COLD CDO HAS DEVELOPED AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 65 AND 77 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS SINCE PART OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER\r\nMOUNTAINOUS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  A \r\nCOMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COLDER SSTS...AND PROXIMITY \r\nTO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ARE THE BASIS FOR FORECASTING SLOW WEAKENING. \r\nA RECENT PHONE CALL FROM CABO SAN LUCAS REPORTS LIGHT DRIZZLE AND \r\nWINDS BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  ABOUT THE SAME CONDITIONS ARE \r\nREPORTED FROM LA PAX.  SO HURRICANE WINDS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN ARE \r\nCONFINED TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA AND INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.\r\n\r\nIT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LIFT THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE \r\nWARNING AREA LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO\r\n30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 23.5N 110.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 111.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 24.8N 112.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 25.6N 112.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 26.3N 113.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 27.5N 114.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":34,"Date":"2001-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001\r\n\r\nIT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON IR IMAGES.  IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF JULIETTE HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY OR DRIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  DATA FROM BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...AND RAOB FROM LA PAZ SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS VERY\r\nNEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST.  INTERACTION WITH LAND APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nWEAKENED JULIETTE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS.\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS NOT INDICATED UNLESS...UNEXPECTLY...THE CENTER\r\nMOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT \r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING \r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO \r\nTHE NORTH AND JULIETTE COULD TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COOL \r\nWATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE AVN \r\nAND THE GFDL.  HOWEVER...A FEW TRACK MODELS BRING JULIETTE NORTHWARD \r\nOVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR SEA OF CORTES. IF THIS IS THE \r\nCASE....A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF \r\nTHE MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO\r\n30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 23.8N 110.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N 110.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 25.0N 111.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N 112.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":35,"Date":"2001-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001\r\n \r\nWIND SHEAR...DRY AIR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND...HAVE WEAKENED\r\nJULIETTE WHICH NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND \r\nA FEW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45\r\nKNOTS...ALTHOUGH STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER\r\nELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE ALREADY MENTIONED PARAMETERS...COOL \r\nWATER WILL BEGIN TO BE A PLAYER FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS A LITTLE \r\nTO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. JULIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING \r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS \r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BRINGING THE \r\nWEAKENING CENTER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA.  THEREAFTER...JULIETTE \r\nOR ITS REMNANTS WILL LIKELY MOVE TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n\r\nTHE WEAKENING OF JULIETTE WILL DECREASE THE WIND PROBLEM FOR BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS REACHED ALMOST TO\r\n30N OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND MAY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 24.2N 111.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 25.0N 112.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 26.0N 113.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 26.7N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 27.5N 114.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 27.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":36,"Date":"2001-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2001\r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS NOW A TOTALLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS...\r\nWITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION...SUCH AS IT IS...AWAY FROM THE CENTER\r\nOVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  CIUDAD DE CONSTITUCION REPORTS A\r\n999 MB PRESSURE ABOUT 55 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THIS AND THE WEAKENING TREND\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 320/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH HAS FORMED NEAR AND WEST OF JULIETTE...WHICH HAS\r\nSHEARED OFF THE TOP OF THE STORM.  THUS JULIETTE SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM AND BAMS.\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS DO INDICATE A CONTINUED NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IF IT WERE TO HAPPEN\r\nWOULD PLACE JULIETTE OVER NORTHERN BAJA OR THE NORTHERN GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...SHOULD THIS OCCUR JULIETTE WOULD BE VERY\r\nWEAK BY THE TIME IT GOT THAT FAR.\r\n\r\nTHE LACK OF CONVECTION WOULD BE ENOUGH BY ITSELF TO MAKE JULIETTE\r\nWEAKEN.  ADD TO THAT THE 20C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IT WILL\r\nSOON BE OVER AND THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FORECAST\r\nBY ALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER\r\nQUICKLY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIETTE TO WEAKEN TO\r\nA DEPRESSION IN 24 HR OR LESS...AND TO A LOW BY 48 HR.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nPREVENT RE-DEVELOPMENT EVEN IF THE CENTER DOES MOVE OVER THE WARM\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS SPREAD OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS.\r\nTHIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE\r\nNEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\n12 FT SEA RADII WERE REVISED ON THE BASIS OF 14 AND 16 FT SEAS 250\r\nTO 300 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 24.5N 112.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 25.1N 112.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 26.1N 113.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 26.9N 114.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 27.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":37,"Date":"2001-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001\r\n \r\nJULIETTE IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION 100 \r\nMILES NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND ADJACENT \r\nLAND AREAS.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 \r\nKNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A FEW RAIN \r\nFLAGGED 35 KNOT WINDS AND THE REST ARE BELOW 35 KNOTS.  JULIETTE IS \r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  VERTICAL SHEAR...COLDER \r\nSSTS...AND PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/4.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL \r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE FORWARD \r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK \r\nFOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS \r\nMODELS...GRADUALLY TURNING THE MOTION WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 \r\nHOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER LEVEL FLOW. \r\n\r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS SPREAD OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND WESTERN TEXAS.\r\nTHIS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTH OVER THE\r\nNEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH JULIETTE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...IT WILL TAKE A \r\nWHILE FOR THE 12 FT SEAS TO SUBSIDE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 25.0N 112.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 25.8N 112.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N 113.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":38,"Date":"2001-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK...NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...SOUTHEAST OF \r\nSANTA ROSALIA.  THERE ARE TWO MAIN CONCERNS HERE.  FIRST...THE \r\nCONTINUATION OF HEAVY RAINS...WHICH ARE NOW MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST \r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS \r\nIN THIS AREA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SECOND IS THE POSSIBILITY \r\nTHAT THE CENTER WILL EMERGE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE SEA OF \r\nCORTEZ ...AND RE-STRENGTHEN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE \r\nEAST...CONSISTENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT QUITE OVER \r\nTHE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  VISIBLE PICTURES AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE \r\nDATA THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THE SITUATION.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE \r\nWEAK..AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LATER \r\nIN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF JULIETTE AND A TURN TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER THE ONLY WE SEE \r\nFOR JULIETTE TO LAST MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS IS FOR IT TO TAKE A \r\nSLOW AND STEADY TRACK UP THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH SEEMS A SLIM \r\nPOSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM JULIETTE...SEEN SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATELLITE \r\nIMAGES...IS NOW BEING DETECTED BY U.S. WSR-88D RADAR AS \r\nPRECIPITATION ECHOES WITHIN ABOUT 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE ARIZONA/NEW \r\nMEXICO BORDER.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 25.6N 112.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N 112.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N 112.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 28.8N 113.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 29.2N 115.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 29.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":39,"Date":"2001-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD CENTER THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY \r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES.  EVEN THOUGH SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS ARE EQUIVOCAL...PRUDENCE DICTATES THAT WE ASSUME A \r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS...BUT IT HAS RE-FORMED NEAR THE \r\nDEEPER CLOUDS.  TO ACCOMMODATE THE ABOVE FACTORS WE ARE USING A \r\nLONGER-TERM...ABOUT 18 H...INITIAL MOTION OF 12 KNOTS.   JULIETTE \r\nAPPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION \r\nWITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT WITH TIME.  THE TRACK \r\nFORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES AND MOST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE \r\nSYSTEM IS STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN OBSERVATION OF 40 KNOTS \r\nFROM SANTA ROSALIA WAS NOT CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS AND SUBSEQUENT \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THAT SITE...OR WITH THE CONTEMPORANEOUS CLOUD \r\nPATTERN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT \r\nTERM WHILE JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE SEA OF \r\nCORTEZ...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RE-STRENGTHENING.  \r\nLATER ON...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED EITHER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND \r\nOR COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nAN ALTERNATE INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE REPORTS \r\nFROM GUAYMAS MEXICO IS THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED \r\nNORTHEASTWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  IF THAT IS THE CASE...THE \r\nSYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SOON.  IN ANY EVENT \r\nJULIETTE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. \r\nRADAR DATA SHOWS PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE BEGINNING TO \r\nSPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE ARIZONA BORDER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 28.7N 112.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 29.9N 112.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 31.0N 114.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 31.3N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N 117.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 30.5N 119.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":40,"Date":"2001-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED INLAND\r\nALONG THE MEXICAN COAST ABOUT 20 NM NORTH OF TIBURON ISLAND...WHILE\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA SOUTHWEST OF TIBURON ISLAND.  THE RESULT IS THAT THE\r\nWINDS HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND\r\nJULIETTE IS RAPIDLY DISSIPATING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10.  WHILE THERE REMAINS A LOW\r\nPROBABILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER STILL\r\nREMAINS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT A WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WOULD REDEVELOP DUE TO THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE COLD\r\nWATER OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nUKMET MODEL TAKES THE REMNANTS NORTHWESTWARD INTO SW ARIZONA AND\r\nDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM THERE...AND THIS SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN \r\nTHE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE APPROACHING DEEP TROUGH FROM \r\nTHE WEST.\r\n\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION AND THE\r\nENTRAINMENT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AS SEEN IN\r\n01/00Z SOUNDINGS FROM TUCSON AND SAN DIEGO.  HOWEVER...THE GRADIENT\r\nWILL REMAIN RATHER TIGHT BETWEEN THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAND THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE U.S.  CENTRAL PLAINS.\r\nTHIS WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER\r\nELEVATIONS...RATHER BRISK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  INVERTED-V\r\nSOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED DRY MICROBURST\r\nACTIVITY WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM JULIETTE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SHIFT\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ENHANCE SHOWER AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 29.9N 112.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING OVER LAND\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED OVER LAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":41,"Date":"2001-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION \r\nOVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF \r\nJULIETTE...WITH AMPLE BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION.  THIS EVENING THE \r\nLOW FINALLY BEGAN GENERATING A LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION... \r\nENOUGH TO REQUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS ARE LIMITED...AND THE SYSTEM RATES NO BETTER THAN A 1.0 \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z HAD SOME \r\nRAIN-FLAGGED 25 TO 30 KT VECTORS...SO I AM SETTING THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY TO 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/3.  JULIETTE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD \r\nMID-LEVEL LOW...SO STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK.  THIS LOW IS FORECAST \r\nBY BOTH THE AVN AND UKMET TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT \r\nDAY OR TWO.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN JULIETTE TO THE WEST.  THE \r\nMID-LEVEL LOW PROBABLY WILL ALSO LIMIT OUTFLOW FROM THE FAIRLY \r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE...AND WITH THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO LAND...NO \r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  IF IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE \r\nACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...VERY COLD WATER AWAITS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 30.5N 113.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.8N 113.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 31.0N 113.7W    25 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 30.8N 114.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":42,"Date":"2001-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n\r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF JULIETTE ARE SO WARM THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nIS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...IT HAS A FAIR\r\nREFLECTIVITY PRESENTATION ON THE YUMA WSR-88D.  DOPPLER VELOCITY\r\nDATA FROM YUMA HAS BEEN SHOWING OCCASIONAL 35-50 KT WINDS WELL\r\nABOVE THE SURFACE...BUT DUE TO THE WEAK CONVECTION IT IS BELIEVED\r\nTHESE WINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS SLOW AND ERRATIC...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nBEING A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE RESEMBLES\r\nSPOKES ON A WHEEL...WITH THE NHC91 TAKING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD...\r\nTHE BAND SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...THE NOGAPS SOUTHWARD...THE\r\nBAMM SOUTHWESTWARD...THE BAMS WESTWARD...AND CLIPER NORTHWARD.\r\nSINCE JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION\r\nTHAT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE MUCH...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW MOTION AND IS A COMBINATION OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND THE BAMS.\r\n \r\nTHE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITED SEA ROOM SHOULD REDUCE\r\nTHE CHANCES FOR JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN EVEN THOUGH IT IS OVER WARM\r\nWATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR OR OVER NORTHERN BAJA.  SHOULD THE\r\nSYSTEM SURVIVE THAT...VERY COLD PACIFIC WATER AWAITS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE RAPID DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT GIVEN THE WINDS\r\nSEEN ON THE YUMA RADAR THE POSSIBILITY OF JULIETTE REGAINING\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...WHILE RATHER UNLIKELY...CANNOT BE ENTIRELY\r\nRULED OUT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 30.7N 113.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 30.9N 113.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 31.0N 114.6W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 30.7N 115.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":43,"Date":"2001-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE DATA IS SHOWING SOME MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING \r\nAROUND THE CENTER OF JULIETTE...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  \r\nRADAR DATA FROM THE YUMA WSR-88D IS INDICATING THAT THE HIGHER \r\nREFLECTIVITIES ARE TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER.  DOPPLER  \r\nVELOCITIES ARE IN THE 35-50 KT RANGE WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE.  UNLESS \r\nTHE CONVECTION DRAMATICALLY STRENGTHENS...SURFACE WINDS SHOULD \r\nREMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 \r\nHOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KNOTS AND THIS IS THE \r\nEXPECTED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE \r\nCONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIVERGENT...REFLECTING A WEAK STEERING REGIME.  \r\nJULIETTE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST DRIFT...\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM-LAYER STEERING.  JULIETTE IS \r\nFORECAST TO CROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND \r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE COOL PACIFIC WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE PENINSULA.  \r\nIN FACT...JULIETTE COULD BE SO DISRUPTED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF \r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA THAT IT MAY NOT SURVIVE THE CROSSING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 30.6N 114.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 30.6N 114.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 30.4N 115.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":44,"Date":"2001-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF SPURT OF DEEPER CONVECTION THIS MORNING...RECENT \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER OF JULIETTE HAVE DECREASED.  RADAR DATA FROM THE YUMA \r\nWSR-88D IS ALSO INDICATING LESS ORGANIZATION OF THE RAIN BANDS.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AS THE CENTER REMAINS \r\nJUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED \r\nTONIGHT AS JULIETTE MOVES INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE \r\nPENINSULA...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST OVER THE COOLER PACIFIC WATERS \r\nWEST OF THE PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.  IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE \r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE GETTING TO THE PACIFIC.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS TURNED MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...AND THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/5.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A \r\nLARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE...WHICH IS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD \r\nBY A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS TRACK \r\nIS SIMILAR TO...AND A LITTLE SLOWER...THAN THOSE OF THE NOGAPS \r\n...MEDIUM BAM...AND CLIPER MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 30.3N 114.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 29.8N 115.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.7N 116.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":45,"Date":"2001-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n \r\nAFTER TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\nTODAY...THE CENTER OF JULIETTE IS DISSIPATING ALONG OR JUST INLAND\r\nOF THE COAST OF BAJA PENINSULA.  LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING ELONGATED AND\r\nILL-DEFINED AS THE CONVECTION WEAKENED.  IT IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO\r\nFIND A CENTER ON RADAR...AND THERE IS NO LONGER INDICATION OF A\r\nCIRCULATION FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  JULIETTE WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nDISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER OR ALONG THE PENINSULA TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS JULIETTE SURPRISES US AGAIN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 29.7N 114.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE 500 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION...CIRCULATION \r\nAND OUTFLOW TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS \r\nTIME. IN FACT...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS TROPICAL \r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WHICH IS \r\nPROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE \r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER \r\nLEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nSHIPS MODEL. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO LBAR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 15.8N 118.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 120.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.3N 122.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.6N 124.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 127.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT \r\nTROPCIAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...\r\nBUT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS CALLS \r\nFOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL \r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK \r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE SUITE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE RTACKING \r\nWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH \r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE \r\nWHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND \r\nWEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF \r\nAN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 16.1N 119.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.3N 120.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.6N 123.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N 125.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 127.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  IT APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND\r\nPERHAPS MUCH MORE SO THAN INDICATED WITH THIS ADVISORY.  DAYLIGHT\r\nIMAGERY IS LIKELY TO REQUIRE A RELOCATION THIS AFTERNOON.  I HAVE \r\nADJUSTED THE FORECAST TRACK ABOUT 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS TRACK IS NEAR THE AVN/UKMET CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM\r\nSAB...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS BEFORE UPGRADING\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT\r\nIS GETTING SQUEEZED BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST...AND\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR PROHIBITIVE AND THE WATER IS STILL WARM...SO\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 17.0N 119.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.6N 121.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.2N 123.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 124.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 126.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N 128.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE NOW ALL AT \r\nOR ABOVE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO.  THE CYCLONE IS IN AN EASTERLY SHEARING \r\nENVIRONMENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF \r\nTHE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST AN IMPRESSIVE \r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS EVIDENTLY NOT IMPRESSED BY THE \r\nSHEAR AND BRINGS KIKO TO 60 KT IN 48 HOURS.  KIKO IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nSTRATOCUMULUS FIELD AND MAY SOON BE INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR FROM \r\nTHE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE \r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS TOUGH TO FIND EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT \r\nIS CLEARLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE 310/13.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nAS IT HAD BEEN EARLIER.  THE BAROTROPIC MODELS CONTINUE KIKO ON TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST...THE AVN TAKES THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... \r\nWHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOW A WESTERLY TRACK WITH AN ULTIMATE TURN \r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST.  WITH NO OBSERVATIONS ANYWHERE NEAR THE CYCLONE IT \r\nIT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE RELATIVE MERITS OF THE VARIOUS MODEL \r\nSOLUTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING FAIRLY \r\nWELL IN THE EASTPAC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 18.0N 120.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.7N 122.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.3N 124.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.6N 125.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 129.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FURTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING TO\r\nTHE EAST AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER\r\nJOG TO THE NORTHWEST HAS FLATTENED OUT TO MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR EVEN WESTWARD MOTION NOW.  THE MORE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION MAY BE\r\nDUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER UNDER THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT KIKO IS A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nCIRCULATION NOW.  ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON THE TAKING\r\nKIKO IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\nTHIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT KIKO IS SOUTH OF THE DEEP\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA WESTWARD TO AT LEAST 130W LONGITUDE...BASED ON WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMMS SATELLITE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST NORTH OF THE AVN\r\nMODEL SOLUTION...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nSINCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...  SOME FASTER\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR NOW THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER\r\nEXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS KIKO UP\r\nTO 61 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND THIS INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS FOLLOWED\r\nCLOSELY GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C SSTS\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KIKO COULD REACH\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO\r\nTHE WEST AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 18.1N 121.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.8N 123.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 125.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.3N 126.9W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 \r\nHOURS...WHILE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS TIGHTENED UP SLIGHTLY.   \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON A DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT...T3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND \r\nSAB...AND THE TIGHTER INNER-CORE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS \r\nGOOD IN THE WEST SEMICIRCLE AND IS IMPROVING TO THE EAST AS THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09.  KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nON A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ALL OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE MODELS\r\nDIVERGE BETWEEN TRACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\nLBAR AND THE DEEP BAM MODELS TAKE KIKO TO THE NORTHWEST AND ARE\r\nCONSIDERED THE OUTLIER MODELS WHEN COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO AN AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS \r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSE TO THE AVN SOLUTION \r\nAFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS KIKO UP TO 65 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND \r\nTHIS TREND WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nHOWEVER...BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING \r\nINTO AN EXTENSIVE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST. THIS \r\nWILL ACT TO START AT LEAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...EVEN THOUGH THE \r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 26C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. \r\nIF THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS GET ENTRAINED SOONER THAN FORECAST... \r\nTHEN KIKO WILL NEVER GET THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 18.2N 122.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 123.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.7N 125.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 126.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 19.3N 128.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 19.3N 130.6W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KIKO HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY \r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT CONTINUES TO HAVE AN AREA OF VERY DEEP \r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS A LITTLE RESTRICTED ON \r\nTHE WEST SIDE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS AND SOME STRENGTHENING \r\nIS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nKIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 9 KNOTS.  A COUPLE OF MID TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  IT APPEARS THAT THESE TROUGHS ARE NOT STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN THE WESTWARD\r\nSTEERING.  THEREFORE... A CONTINUED GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK IS INDICATED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nWHICH ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING KIKO ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 18.3N 123.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 125.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 126.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS STABLE AIR ENTRAINING AROUND THE WESTERN \r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF KIKO. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS \r\nLIMITED TO SOME BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS THAT \r\nKIKO IS ENTERING AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRENGTHENING HAS \r\nSTOPPED. A STEADY STATE OR A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE \r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  SOME INTERMITTENT BURST OF CONVECTION MAY SRILLL \r\nOCCUR.\r\n \r\nKIKO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 10 TO 11 KNOTS.  A COUPLE OF \r\nMID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  IT APPEARS THAT THESE TROUGHS ARE NOT STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN THE WESTWARD\r\nSTEERING.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED IN AGREEMENT WITH \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 18.4N 125.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N 127.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N 130.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION OF KIKO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING\r\nTHE PAST 3 TO 6 HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 23/2219Z SSMI OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED A SMALL RAGGED EYE WAS PRESENT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n60 KT IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE PATTERN AND A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT..CI4.0...AND 55\r\nKT...CI3.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS FAIR TO GOOD...BUT IS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07.  KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN A \r\nLITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION \r\nAND REGENERATION OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.  REGARDLESS...ALL \r\nOF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TAKING \r\nKIKO WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  THE ONLY OUTLIERS ARE LBAR AND THE DEEP BAM MODELS...WHICH \r\nTAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD.  THESE SOLUTIONS WERE \r\nIGNORED BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH \r\nAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY \r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN MODEL.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE \r\nWEST...THIS MAY BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST OF CENTRAL DEEP \r\nCONVECTION.  ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 \r\nHOURS...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT DUE TO INCREASING \r\nSHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  IF KIKO IS GOING TO \r\nREACH MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY...IT WILL LIKELY HAVE TO DO SO IN \r\nTHE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BASICALLY \r\nMAINTAINS KIKO AT 56 TO 58 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 18.6N 125.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.8N 126.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.9N 128.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 18.9N 129.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.8N 130.8W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 133.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kiko","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION OF KIKO HAS CONTINUED TO TIGHTEN UP DURING \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 24/0449Z SSMI OVERPASS \r\nCLEARLY INDICATED THAT A CLOSED 20NM DIAMETER EYE WAS PRESENT. AN \r\nEYE FEATURE ALSO BRIEFLY BECAME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY AT ABOUT \r\nTHE SAME TIME. THEREFORE...KIKO IS MADE A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY \r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE AND \r\nA DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT..CI4.0...FROM \r\nTAFB. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FAIR TO GOOD...BUT IS NOW ELONGATED \r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MOST OF THE NHC \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON TAKING KIKO WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF \r\nDUE WEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NOGAPS IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OF ALL \r\nTHE MODELS AND TAKES KIKO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHILE THE LBAR AND DEEP BAM MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE \r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD.  OVERALL...THOUGH...THERE IS MUCH BETTER \r\nCONVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS RUN THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL \r\nRUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN MODEL.\r\n \r\nKIKO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF\r\nCOLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE WEST.  THE INTENSITY IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR...DECREASING\r\nSSTS...AND THE LIKELY ENTRAINMENT OF THE STABLE LOW CLOUDS\r\nCURRENTLY JUST WEST OF KIKO.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL KEEPS THE\r\nINTENSITY OF KIKO BETWEEN 62 TO 58 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 19.1N 125.9W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 128.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.3N 130.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.8N 131.8W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 134.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE KIKO HAS WEAKENED AND THUNDERSTORM TOPS \r\nHAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS \r\nCONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN \r\nLOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS T3.5...55 KT...FROM \r\nTAFB AND T2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL.  THE FORECAST KEEPS KIKO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM AS IT TRACKS \r\nALONG 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SST. ALSO...RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nIS FORECAST OVER THE CYCLONE AS THE WESTERLIES REMAIN JUST TO THE \r\nNORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07.  THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALLOWING KIKO TO TRACK TO THE WEST \r\nAND WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nAND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 19.2N 126.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.3N 127.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.3N 129.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.1N 130.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.6N 132.4W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.1N 135.2W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH JUST\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE CENTER.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT AS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS KIKO\r\nAS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS BASED ON 26 DEGREE\r\nCELSIUS SST AND RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/7...IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE\r\nWEST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED\r\nLITTLE FOR THIS PACKAGE...WHICH RESULTS IN AN OFFICIAL TRACK VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...I.E. A MAINLY WESTWARD COURSE AT A \r\nRATHER SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 19.2N 127.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 19.3N 128.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.3N 129.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N 131.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N 132.8W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 135.6W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BASED ON THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION NOW BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL POSITION AND INDICATED SHEAR PATTERN ARE ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY A 25/0232Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...WHICH INDICATED THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/04.  KIKO REMAINS ON TRACK...SO THERE IS\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.\r\nTHE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nTAKE KIKO TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK AFTER 24 HOURS BASED ON FORECAST WEAKENING...MAKING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE AVN-NOGAPS-GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nKIKO WEAKENS FASTER THAN FORECAST...THEN IT COULD BECOME NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY...WHICH WOULD ONLY HELP THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE SOONER.\r\n \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS KIKO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. IF THE\r\nSYSTEM STALLS...THEN IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT KIKO COULD CEASE\r\nTO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 19.0N 127.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.9N 128.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.6N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 18.3N 131.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 133.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n \r\nRECENT NIGHT CHANNEL GOES-10 IMAGERY INDICATES AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD\r\nFIELD...WHICH SHIFTS THE INITIAL POSITION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS 6 HR FORECAST.  KIKO IS CURRENTLY ENTRAINING DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE AIR FROM ITS ENVIRONMENT...AIDING IN A CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE AND AS SUCH IT IS TECHNICALLY NOT CLASSIFIABLE BY\r\nTHE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM MORE THAN 12 HOURS AGO\r\nSHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS AT MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN SPINNING DOWN SINCE THEN.\r\nTHEREFORE...KIKO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER IF KIKO REMAINS IN ITS PRESENT STATE...DEVOID OF ANY \r\nCONVECTION...THE CYCLONE MAY DISSIPATE TO A REMANT LOW EVEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST FIXES...THE MOTION IS REVISED TO 270/07.  KIKO \r\nSHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE \r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  AS A RESULT..THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE \r\nALONG A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT TO MOVE KIKO A BIT FASTER...CONSISTENT \r\nWITH THE GFDL-UKMET-AVN-NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 19.2N 129.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 130.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.8N 131.2W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 132.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 133.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2001\r\n\r\nKIKO HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE SYSTEM...INDICATIVE OF A DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING AT THE\r\nPRESENT TIME...INTERMITTENT FLARE-UPS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE REMNANTS\r\nOF KIKO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nKIKO HAS KEPT A WESTERLY COURSE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH INITIAL \r\nMOTION AT 270/07.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STEERING \r\nSCENARIO.  THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION...AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST \r\nOF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  \r\n\r\nSINCE KIKO IS DISSIPATING...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS \r\nREGENERATION OCCURS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 19.2N 129.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.1N 130.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.7N 131.8W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 133.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 134.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WITH THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF \r\nACAPULCO ARE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB.  THERE WAS ENOUGH \r\nCURVATURE VISIBLE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN LAST LIGHT IMAGERY \r\nTO SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS \r\nNOW A DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON \r\nTHE SAB ESTIMATE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE \r\nSYSTEM CURRENTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WINDS FROM \r\nTHE UW/CIMSS WEB PAGE SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A \r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY LIFTING THE \r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD AT VARIOUS SPEEDS.  THE AVN IS THE MOST AGRESSIVE \r\nWITH THE RECURVATURE...TAKING THE SYSTEM VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST \r\nNEAR CABO CORRIENTES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BOTH THE UKMET AND THE \r\nNOGAPS KEEP THE SYSTEM FURTHER OFFSHORE.  FOR THE AVN FORECAST TO \r\nVERIFY...THE SYSTEM WILL NEED TO SPEED UP IN A MANNER QUITE RARE IN \r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF \r\nTHE AVN BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF \r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  IF THE SYSTEM FOLLOWS THE UKMET/NOGAPS TRACK...THE \r\nSYSTEM WILL PASS OVER THE COLD WATER UPWELLED BY JULIETTE.  ON THE \r\nAVN TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL STAY OVER WARM WATER...BUT THIS \r\nSCENARIO MIGHT HAVE HIGHER SHEAR.  NEITHER SCENARIO LOOKS CONDUCIVE \r\nTO TREMENDOUS STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE \r\nGFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 12.0N 102.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 12.1N 103.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 12.9N 105.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 106.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 17.5N 106.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N 105.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND AFWA.  SINCE THEN...THE CYCLONE HAS SHOWN FURTHER\r\nORGANIZATION AND IS THUS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LORENA WITH\r\n35 KT WINDS.  CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZED IN A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCURVED BAND PATTERN WITH NUMEROUS TOPS ABOVE -70C AND A FEW COLDER\r\nTHAN -80C.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP\r\nLAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE...OVER THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR\r\n20N110W.  ALL GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER RESPONDS TO THIS FEATURE BY\r\nTURNING LORENA NORTHWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GUIDANCE\r\nIS SOMEWHAT MORE SPREAD THAN 6 HR AGO AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nLEFT.  THE AVN IS STILL THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...TAKING THE\r\nSTORM INLAND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.  THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET ARE\r\nFARTHEST TO THE LEFT...TAKING THE STORM TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  A LOOK AT THE NOGAPS AND UKMET WIND FIELDS SHOW \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE PATH OF LORENA AT 36-72\r\nHR...WHICH MAKE THEIR MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LOOK UNLIKELY.  THUS...\r\nWHILE THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT IT STILL\r\nLEANS MORE TOWARD THE AVN THAN THE UKMET OR NOGAPS.  EITHER WAY...\r\nLORENA POSES A THREAT TO WESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA...AND\r\nINTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nLORENA IS CURRENTLY UNDER SOME EASTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR\r\nWHICH IS RESTRICTING OUTFLOW TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THIS DOES NOT\r\nSEEM TO HAVE HINDERED DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.  CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL 48-72 HR...WHEN ALL LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL RUN INTO STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO JUST\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.  LORENA\r\nCOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IF IT INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN\r\nFORECAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 12.1N 103.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 12.5N 104.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.7N 106.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 107.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 106.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS GRADUALLY\r\nIMPROVING...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.5 SO THE INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LORENA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nQUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST SHIPS \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...285/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING REGIME CONTINUES \r\nTO BE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF \r\nCALIFORNIA...WITHIN WHICH TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE HAS BEEN \r\nEMBEDDED.  IN RESPONSE TO THE STEERING WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE \r\nOF THIS SYSTEM...LORENA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nFOLLOWS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS \r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nGFDL...AVN...U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS TRACKS...BUT LEANS MORE \r\nTOWARD THE AVN.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES LORENA TO THE COAST IN 2-3 \r\nDAYS...INTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS \r\nOF THIS STORM.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 12.8N 104.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 105.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 15.2N 106.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 17.3N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N 107.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 105.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM\r\nCONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET\r\nVERY WELL-DEFINED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB RESPECTIVELY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE AVERAGE OF\r\nTHESE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL BEING BLUNTED\r\nA BIT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nLOOKS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nUKMET/NOGAPS/AVN CONSENSUS.  THE AVN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHARPER \r\nRECURVATURE THAN EITHER THE NOGAPS OR UKMET. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 13.6N 105.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.8N 106.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 16.9N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 19.0N 107.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N 106.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 104.5W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 02 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS \r\nBEEN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PRESUMED CENTER AND THE \r\nLATEST TRMM/SSMI PASSES SUGGEST A DEVELOPING INNER CORE...SO AS LONG \r\nAS THE CENTER IS WHERE WE THINK IT IS...SHORT TERM STRENGTHENING IS \r\nEXPECTED.  NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SHOWS LORENA BECOMING A \r\nHURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A LARGE INCREASE IN SHEAR AS THE \r\nCYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LORENA \r\nWILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE HIGH-SHEAR REGION AND COULD STRENGTHEN \r\nMORE THAN INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... \r\nHENCE THE HURRICANE WATCH.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A CLUSTERING OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE JUST TO THE WEST OF CABO \r\nCORRIENTES...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FURTHER WEST.  THE AVN HAS \r\nBEEN A VERY GOOD PERFORMER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  IT IS THE \r\nQUICKEST TO LANDFALL...BRINGING THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO \r\nTHE COAST IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS.  THE GFDN ALSO INDICATES LANDFALL \r\nIN ABOUT 30 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FASTER...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE \r\nAVN.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR ITS RECENT PERFORMANCE...IT IS TIME FOR A \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 14.8N 106.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 16.6N 106.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N 107.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N 106.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LORENA IS NOT THAT\r\nIMPRESSIVE...EARLIER IR IMAGES HINTED AT A WARM SPOT WHERE THERE\r\nIS NOW STRONG CONVECTION OF -80C.  THIS...COMBINED WITH EARLIER\r\nSSM/I AND AMSU-B IMAGES SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM IS CONTINUING TO\r\nCONSOLIDATE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nLORENA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 350/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 18N\r\n120W.  ALL NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT LORENA WILL RECURVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...MAKING LANDFALL IN\r\nWESTERN MEXICO IN 24-48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH AVN AND BAMM.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY.  LORENA IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nAN AREA OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND THE\r\nOVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.  ADDITIONALLY...\r\nMUCH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DEVELOPING NORTH\r\nOF 20N.  THIS PATTERN LOOKS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...\r\nAND NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE BRINGS LORENA TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS QUITE\r\nSTRONG...AND MICROWAVE DATA HINTING AT A TIGHT INNER CORE BRINGS UP\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY THAT LORENA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nTHE SHEAR BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH TO STOP INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH 60 KT BEFORE THAT\r\nOCCURS.  LORENA SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL AS IT MOVES\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CENTER WILL LIKELY\r\nBE GONE IN 48 HR.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF LORENA IN CASE HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NEEDED LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 16.0N 106.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.7N 106.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 106.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 23.4N 105.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES WERE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE\r\nNORTH...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER...ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THE POSITION ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED\r\nACCORDINGLY.  ADDITIONAL VISIBLE PICTURES SHOULD GIVE A BETTER\r\nESTIMATE OF LOCATION.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON ARE 55 \r\nKNOTS AND 45 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY...SO THE CURRENT WINDS ARE ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE NEAR 50 KNOTS.  DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE \r\nPAST FEW HOURS...BUT THIS MAY BE A SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATION.  \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT LORENA \r\nSHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST ALLOWS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST.  HOWEVER IF THE ORGANIZATION OF \r\nTHE SYSTEM IMPROVES LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE \r\nUPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 16.7N 106.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.2N 106.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 106.3W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N 105.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES ARE STILL NOT CONCLUSIVE AS TO THE CENTER \r\nPOSITION.  THE STORM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO \r\nEVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AND THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  BASED ON DVORAK \r\nESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KNOTS.  AIR FORCE \r\nRECON...SCHEDULED FOR 00Z TONIGHT...SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE  SINCE LORENA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN A \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN \r\nSTRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/8...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE THE\r\nCENTER IS SO POORLY DEFINED.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nON A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY A 500 MB LOW\r\nOVER BAJA AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES RANGE UP TO 8 INCHES...AND THIS COULD \r\nPRODUCE HAZARDOUS FLOODING IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADIUS HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT \r\nBASED ON A SHIP REPORT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 16.8N 106.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 18.5N 105.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.8N 105.3W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N 104.5W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING LORENA COULD FIND ONLY\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THEIR FLIGHT ALTITUDE OF 700 MB.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHEY ESTIMATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n1004 MB...NEAR A CLOUD SWIRL APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\nTHE CENTER IS AT LEAST 100 NM TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED FROM THE \r\nABBREVIATED PATTERN WAS 29 KT...WITH THE HIGHEST SURFACE ESTIMATE OF \r\n25 KT.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT NOT IN THE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION...ALSO HAD 25 KT AT THE SURFACE.  ALTHOUGH I DO NOT \r\nTHINK IT IS LIKELY...I AM ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME \r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN THAT WERE NOT SAMPLED.  WITH THE \r\nSHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE...LORENA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nWITH A GOOD RECON POSITION THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/6...SLOWER \r\nAND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE SHEARED CYCLONE \r\nWILL BE STEERED BY A LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND THEREFORE MOVE MORE SLOWLY \r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  ON THE NEW TRACK THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN \r\nOVER WATER FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...BUT COULD WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE \r\nMAKING LANDFALL.  REGARDLESS...THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE SPREADING \r\nONSHORE NOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 17.2N 106.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.7N 106.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.2N 105.7W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N 105.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2001\r\n\r\nMULTISPECTRAL IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF LORENA IS\r\nAND EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WELL REMOVED FROM ANY CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BIT OF AN UNKNOWN.  EARLIER RECON AND\r\nSATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA DID NOT CONCLUSIVELY SHOW ANY TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...BASED MAINLY ON RULES FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS...ARE STILL\r\nAT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME\r\nTROPICAL STORM WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE CONVECTION WELL TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE DATA LATER IN THE DAY MAY HELP\r\nDETERMINE IF LORENA HAS ACTUALLY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/7.  DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA SHOULD MOVE LORENA ALONG A NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION...AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY MOST OF THE NHC\r\nHURRICANE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE BAMS...CALLING FOR LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO\r\nIN ABOUT 36 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE CLIPER AND THE UKMET\r\nWANT TO MOVE LORENA CLOSER TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA THAN THE\r\nOTHER MODELS...THE CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY DIE BEFORE IT COULD BECOME\r\nA SERIOUS THREAT TO THAT AREA.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT INITIAL INTENSITY OF LORENA...IT WILL NOT\r\nBE A TROPICAL STORM MUCH LONGER.  THE CIRCULATION IS VERY SHALLOW...\r\nAND THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH DISSIPATION OVER THE \r\nMOUNTAINS OF MEXICO THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nRAINFALL IS THE MAJOR THREAT FROM LORENA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nDEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THIS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST.  THERE \r\nIS A CHANCE THIS MOISTURE MAY INTERACT WITH A JET STREAM OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO...POSSIBLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO EVEN AFTER LORENA DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 17.9N 107.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 19.1N 107.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 20.6N 106.4W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N 105.7W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 23.4N 104.9W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorena","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 04 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LORENA IS WEAKENING.  STRONG UPPER\r\nLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE SHEARED THE CONVECTION WELL AWAY FROM\r\nTHE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO\r\nPERSIST...THEREFORE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS LORENA DISSIPATING AFTER LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN\r\nITS CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE BEFORE\r\nREACHING THE COAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 360/09 KT. LORENA IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT AHEAD OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...JUST A LITTLE FASTER.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDIMINISHED...RAINFALL STILL IS SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN...\r\nPARTICULARLY FOR AREAS IN WHICH THE OROGRAPHY MIGHT ENHANCE\r\nPRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTERS PASCH/TICHACEK/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 19.0N 106.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 20.3N 106.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 22.0N 105.8W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 23.5N 105.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorena","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 04 2001\r\n\r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME DISTORTED.  ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION EXISTS...BEING SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  LORENA IS IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATION...ALTHOUGH A\r\nREMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM MIGHT REACH THE COAST EARLY\r\nTOMORROW.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS LORENAS REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BE STEERED \r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING...THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/TICHACEK/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 20.1N 106.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N 106.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 24.0N 104.5W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n\r\nTHE PERSISTENT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WELL SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN\r\nLUCAS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED\r\nAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE LAST\r\nIR IMAGE HINTED THAT THE CONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO WANE A \r\nLITTLE BIT...AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SYSTEM WILL SHOW\r\nLARGE CONVECTIVE VARIABILITY UNTIL IS CONSOLIDATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE...\r\nAND LARGE-SCALE MODELS THAT SOME RIDGING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS DEVELOPING NEAR\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST.  MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...SAVE FOR LBAR WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD\r\nBY 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION AT\r\nABOUT 8-9 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...ALONG\r\nWITH SOME HINTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE A BIT\r\nDIVERGENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48\r\nHR...ALTHOUGH THEY ALL AGREE ON GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THEY ALL FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND NO\r\nCHANGE AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 13.8N 121.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 13.9N 124.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 126.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 14.1N 127.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 130.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. \r\nPOSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR THIS ARE THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR FROM AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM...AND \r\nLARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WEST OF 110W \r\nAS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE \r\n35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB.  DUE TO THE WEAKENED \r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT \r\n30 KNOTS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL \r\nWEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH...THEREFORE DECREASING THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT OVER \r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM \r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWESTERLY WINDS IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY WILL \r\nBE LEVELED OFF AT 45 KNOTS BY THIS TIME.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE...\r\nAND LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME RIDGING WILL REMAIN\r\nBETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS\r\nDEVELOPING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST.  MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES ON A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION...SAVE FOR LBAR WHICH TURNS THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD BY 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AT ABOUT 8-9 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 13.9N 122.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 13.9N 123.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N 125.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 14.4N 127.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 129.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION...IF IT EXISTS...HAS BECOME\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED CENTER IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A RAPIDLY\r\nDISSIPATING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES IMPLY THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nOCEAN WEST OF 120W.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE\r\nREMAINS IN PLACE AND THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE\r\nSYSTEM...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...OR SOONER.\r\n\r\nSOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POSITION BASED ON VISIBLE \r\nSATELLITE DATA...WITH THE CENTER RELOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO ADJUSTED TO 285/6.  A \r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL \r\nDISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE NOGAPS AND BAM SHALLOW \r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 14.4N 122.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.6N 123.3W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.6N 124.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 125.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM HAS MARKEDLY DECREASED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL REVEALS A POORLY-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION IS BEING\r\nDISRUPTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY THE DISSIPATING\r\nCONVECTION.  THE LACK OF CONVECTION INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nRAPIDLY WEAKENING.  THE DEPRESSION IS LABORING UNDER STRONG\r\nSUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR FROM AN\r\nUPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE TO ITS\r\nNORTH..\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE.  ISOLATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT NEAR THE \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF \r\nMOSTLY WEAK CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT \r\nDAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 14.6N 123.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.7N 124.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nCIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH BOTH LOOK SOMEWHAT\r\nRAGGED AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  ADVISORIES ARE\r\nTHUS INITIATED ON A 30 KT DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/14.  LIMITED GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TODAY\r\nDUE TO COMPUTER MAINTENANCE AT NCEP.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY\r\nSHOWS RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WITH A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH\r\nNORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE NOGAPS\r\nINDICATES THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A NEW STRONG\r\nSHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE U.S. TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT\r\nFORECAST THE TROUGH TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE RIDGE STARTS\r\nTO STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE\r\n72 HR POINT WILL SHOW A WESTWARD TURN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH\r\nSHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NOGAPS\r\nFORECASTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER\r\n12-24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nAFTER 12 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFDL CALLS FOR NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING...A SURPRISING LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT OF THE\r\nGENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE MODEL.\r\n\r\nAFTER EXTENSIVE POST-ANALYSIS...AND NO SMALL AMOUNT OF DEBATE...IT\r\nWAS DECIDED THAT THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT THE CONTINUATION OF ATLANTIC\r\nHURRICANE IRIS.  SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nYESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER...WHILE PART OF THE OVERALL\r\nWEATHER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS...WAS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC\r\nBEFORE THE CENTER OF IRIS LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. \r\nTHUS...THE SYSTEM IS CALLED TD FIFTEEN-E INSTEAD OF TD IRIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 14.0N 101.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 14.0N 103.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 14.5N 105.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 107.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001\r\n \r\nTHE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTION IS \r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE.  OVERALL...THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS \r\nNOT CHANGED MUCH THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\n35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST \r\nTO WEAKEN FURTHER...THUS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 \r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS \r\nRIDGE WILL LIKELY BE TEMPORARILY ERODED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER \r\nTROUGH AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK \r\nIN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO \r\nREBUILD FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS \r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 14.6N 102.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N 104.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 106.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2001\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL QUASI-CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AT THIS TIME.\r\nSATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nMIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM.  AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO IS STILL IMPARTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nIMPEDING THE STORMS OUTFLOW TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE THE STORM SHOULD\r\nBE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 12 KNOTS...INDICATING A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MANUEL BEING WEAKENED SLIGHTLY BY THE PASSAGE\r\nOF A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nAFTERWARDS...A WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT SHOULD PREVAIL.  THE\r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 14.8N 103.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.1N 105.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.3N 110.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF MANUEL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING FIRST LIGHT VISIBLES...BUT THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF ITS LOCATION IS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND WITH THE RATHER AMORPHOUS APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED IS 14 KNOTS...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MANUEL IN A DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT\r\nWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  THE NHC HURRICANE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BY SPLITTING INTO\r\nTWO MAIN SOLUTIONS.  THE GFDL AND NAVY-GFDL SOLUTIONS RECURVE MANUEL\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE REST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE IS MORE WESTWARD.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE WAS EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE YESTERDAY...\r\nCURRENT IMAGERY IS NOT SO CLEAR...WITH A FAIRLY HARD EDGE TO THE\r\nUPPER CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT MANUEL SHOULD BE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 54 KNOTS IN\r\n36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW SOME SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE AVN SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER MANUEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL INDICATE SOME WEAKENING AFTER THE 48-HOUR PERIOD...IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 15.4N 105.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 15.9N 107.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 16.4N 109.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 16.9N 110.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2001\r\n\r\nWHILE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL REMAINS SOMEWHAT \r\nLIMITED...THE SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH \r\nBANDING FEATURES NOW EVIDENT.  ACCORDINGLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KNOTS. \r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED IS 13 KNOTS...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.\r\nTHE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nTIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE NORTH\r\nOF MANUEL.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MANUEL OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  THE\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO NOT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT MANUEL.  THE GFDL AND NAVY-GFDL SOLUTIONS\r\nCONTINUE TO RECURVE MANUEL TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL HAS A KNOWN POLEWARD BIAS IN\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS MANUEL MORE\r\nWESTWARD AS THE NEXT RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MANUEL COULD TRACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nTHE EARLIER SHARP EDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT AS EVIDENT\r\nNOW.  THE OVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD AND...GIVEN\r\nWEAK SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT SST...MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES MODERATE\r\nSTRENTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SO\r\nNO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 15.9N 106.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.5N 107.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 109.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 111.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 11 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE \r\nAGENCIES. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN AND SINCE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 45 KNOTS. LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nGUIDANCE STILL INDICATES MODERATE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN A WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nREMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nINITIAL FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO 11 KNOTS.  THE OVERALL FORECAST \r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE \r\nTO THE NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN AFTER A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE \r\nPASSES TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF DUE \r\nWEST...BUT IN THE LONG RANGE...MANUEL COULD TRACK MORE TOWARD THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE \r\nANTICYCLONE.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 16.1N 107.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 17.0N 111.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF MANUEL HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY\r\nDURING THE NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINING IN\r\nTHE STORM ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nPOSITION.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0355Z HINTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS BECOMING ELONGATED...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nIT MIGHT REFORM CLOSER TO THAT CONVECTION.  DAYLIGHT VISIBLE \r\nIMAGES SHOULD HELP DETERMINE WHETHER THAT HAS ACTUALLY HAPPENED\r\nOR NOT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT...AS DOES\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 280/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nEXTENDING TO ABOUT 29N...AND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGING BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE STORM.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE LOW AND MID LEVEL PARTS OF THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD\r\nAND BYPASS MANUEL...ALLOWING IT TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT DIVERSE.\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH FORECAST ERRATIC MOTION...NEVER MOVING MANUEL\r\nWEST OF 112W.  THE LBAR CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHILE THE\r\nNHC91 CALLS FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST IN 36-48 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE DISORGANIZATION...THE OUTFLOW OF\r\nMANUEL LOOKS UNIMPRESSIVE.  THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT NORTHWESTERLY \r\nFLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW AND PARTIALLY SHEARING THE SYSTEM.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE\r\nBY 36-48 HR...ALTHOUGH IF MANUEL STAYS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nTRACK THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MORE FAVORABLE.  BASED ON THIS...AND\r\nTHE POSSIBILITIES OF NEW CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS NEAR THE CENTER OR A\r\nREFORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING.  THIS IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 16.2N 108.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 16.4N 110.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 111.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 17.2N 116.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 119.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION AROUND MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING... \r\nWITH LIMITED AND POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH \r\nOF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT \r\nTO LOCATE AND COULD BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION.  \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP IN DETERMINING THE \r\nACTUAL LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND \r\nSAB ARE DOWN TO 30 KNOTS...25 KNOTS FROM KGWC...AND THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  \r\n \r\nMANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT \r\n270/8.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND ANOTHER NEAR 120W.  NHC HURRICANE \r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT DIVERSE.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS \r\nBOTH FORECAST A SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A \r\nEASTWARD LOOP AND A TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET \r\nMODEL ALSO TAKES THE STORM TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR ABOUT A DAY OR \r\nTWO...WITH A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.  \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ACTING AS A \r\nPOSSIBLE BLOCKING FEATURE PREVENTING THE STORM FROM MOVING TOO MUCH \r\nTO THE WEST.  THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GENERAL \r\nWESTWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.  \r\nBASED ON THIS POTENTIAL WEAK STEERING FLOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL \r\nBE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL \r\nMODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER \r\nMANUEL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...NO STRENGTHEING IS \r\nANTICIPATED.  IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENT POOR APPARENT ORGANIZATION \r\nOF MANUEL...EVEN THIS FORECAST MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 15.9N 109.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.9N 110.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 111.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 112.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 114.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHERE IS MINIMAL AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM.   \r\nA 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS.  TAFB...\r\nSAB AND AFGWC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.5...2.0 AND 2.0.  MANUEL \r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST \r\nTHAT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE THE \r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER IT BY 48 HOURS AND \r\nDISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS \r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS RATHER THAN CALLING FOR DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/12.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE VERY\r\nSLOW SUGGESTING THAT MANUEL IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW\r\nBETWEEN HIGHS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.  THE AVIATION MODEL IS\r\nALSO VERY SLOW.  OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY THE NOGAPS KEEPS A \r\nWESTWARD MOTION AT 10 KNOTS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWED \r\nCONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN RESPONSE TO THIS \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 14.9N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.6N 112.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.4N 113.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N 114.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.8N 115.3W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-10-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING\r\nCONVECTION.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0 INDICATING\r\nA 30 KT DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD AT 30\r\nKNOTS INITIALLY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS\r\nBASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A DEPRESSION OR EVEN A STORM\r\nA LITTLE LONGER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/12.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND AVIATION  \r\nMODELS ALL SUGGEST WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST \r\nIS VERY SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 14.8N 112.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 113.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.7N 114.0W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W    20 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 117.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-10-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nMANUEL IS GENERATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  WHILE THE BURSTS ARE POORLY ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE\r\nEVIDENCE OF BANDING...THEY ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA AT 30 KT.  THAT WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/10.  MANUEL IS CURRENTLY STEERED BY\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO DEVELOP WEST OF 135W.\r\nTHIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW MANUEL A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\n24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SHIFTED WEST OF...THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED MORE TO THE WEST IN\r\nLATER PACKAGES.\r\n\r\nMANUEL IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...AND THE\r\nIMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nWILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. DESPITE\r\nTHIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO AGAINST THIS GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR\r\nCONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 14.7N 112.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N 113.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N 114.9W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-10-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nMANUEL CONTINUES GENERATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM \r\nTAFB...SAB...ARE AT 35 AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/08.  MANUAL APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN\r\nAND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE.  MANUEL IS\r\nCURRENTLY STEERED BY LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO\r\nDEVELOP WEST OF 135W.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW MANUEL A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS\r\nBUT SLOWER.\r\n\r\nMANUEL REMAINS IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...AND THE\r\nIMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nWILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. DESPITE\r\nTHIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 14.4N 113.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N 113.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.0N 114.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.9N 115.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.0N 115.9W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 14.3N 117.6W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-10-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nMANUEL CONTINUES GENERATING BURSTS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...ARE AT 40 AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH BRINGS \r\nMANUAL BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 260/02...A PROVERBIAL CRAWL.  THE MODELS \r\nSEEM TO BE DOING WELL WITH THIS DECELERATION.  MANUEL CONTINUES TO \r\nBE SLOWLY STEERED BY LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO\r\nDEVELOP WEST OF 135W.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW MANUEL A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS.\r\n \r\nMANUEL REMAINS IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...BUT APPEARS TO BE ABLE\r\nTO OVERCOME THE SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.  DESPITE THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS ARE CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED \r\nTO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 14.2N 113.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.0N 113.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 14.0N 114.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 13.9N 114.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 13.9N 115.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-10-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001\r\n \r\nIT IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER ON VIS OR IR AND THERE IS NO\r\nRECENT HELP FROM MICROWAVE.  USING A CENTER OF THE OVERALL LAST\r\nLIGHT VIS PATTERN GIVES A MOTION OF 225/6 AT 00Z.  MUCH OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS ERODED FROM AN\r\nAPPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 55 KNOTS FROM SAB AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  HOWEVER THE\r\nCONVECTION LOOKS RAGGED AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF STRONG NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nABATE BY THE AVIATION MODEL ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION IN 24\r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 13.4N 113.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 13.2N 114.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.1N 115.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N 118.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-10-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS \r\nALSO MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 14/0340Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER \r\nIN JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THIS \r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION \r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DESPITE THE \r\nAPPEARANCE OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS \r\nMAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT... \r\nT3.5...FROM TAFB AND 35 KT...T2.5...FROM SAB...AND INCREASING \r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE SYSTEM\r\nBY 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME THE TROUGH IS CONTINUING\r\nTO DIG SOUTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT IT\r\nSLOWLY POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE DEEP\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND HELP MOVE MANUEL\r\nIN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  THIS IS \r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF \r\nTHE NHC GUIDANCE SUITE...AND CLOSE TO THE AVN-NOGAPS-UKMET MODEL \r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS \r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  \r\nWHILE THIS PATTERN IS INCREASING THE UPPER-DIFULENCE ACROSS THE \r\nCYCLONE AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ALSO \r\nINCREASING THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.  ONCE THE SHEAR \r\nDECREASES...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL ACTUALLY BRINGS MANUEL BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN \r\n36 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES TO ONLY 5 TO 10 KT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 13.7N 114.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 13.8N 114.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N 115.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 14.9N 115.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 119.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-10-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE PARTLY\r\nEXPOSED WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS\r\nMAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...\r\nT3.5...FROM TAFB AND 35 KT...T2.5...FROM SAB...AND INCREASING\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nREMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM BY 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME THE TROUGH IS\r\nCONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD\r\nHELP LIFT IT SLOWLY POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND HELP\r\nMOVE MANUEL IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWEST\r\nDIRECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT TO THE RIGHT FOR THE REMAINING FORECAST\r\nPERIODS...AND CLOSE TO THE AVN-NOGAPS-UKMET-GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\nWHILE THIS PATTERN IS INCREASING THE UPPER-DIFULENCE ACROSS THE\r\nCYCLONE AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ALSO\r\nINCREASING THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.  ONCE THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASES...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL ACTUALLY BRINGS MANUEL BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n36 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES TO ONLY 5 TO 10 KT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 14.1N 114.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 115.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N 116.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N 118.6W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 121.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":17,"Date":"2001-10-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n\r\nBASED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED A \r\nBIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES.  THIS IS NEAR \r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF A RAGGED-LOOKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE \r\nSYSTEM HAS A BROKEN CURVED BAND FEATURE OVER ITS EASTERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND IS BEING IMPACTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE \r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCTING THE \r\nSHEAR IS BEGINNING TO CUT OFF...AND THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES \r\nTHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEAKEN.  \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION TYPICALLY REDUCES THE SHEAR AND PROVIDES A MORE \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WILL LINGER IN \r\nTHE VICINITY OF MANUEL EVEN AFTER THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY \r\nFROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALSO THE TRACK OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBE OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.   THEREFORE THE \r\nAMOUNT OF FORECAST STRENGTHENING HAS BEEN REDUCED A BIT FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MEANDERING SO INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE \r\nIS STATIONARY.  MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN EMBEDDED IN A BROAD \r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH OR WEAKNESS BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  THE AVN \r\nMODEL GRADUALLY BUILDS A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF \r\nMANUEL...AND THIS SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 14.4N 113.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.0N 114.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.8N 115.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 116.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 120.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":18,"Date":"2001-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001\r\n\r\nLATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...WHICH IS PROBABLY \r\nA DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5...WHICH CORRESPONDS \r\nTO 35 KNOTS.  MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL \r\nLOW JUST TO ITS WEST.  THERE IS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE \r\nSOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nSHEAR OVER THE AREA.  EVEN THOUGH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE \r\nUPPER LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANUEL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nTWO...IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL STILL HAVE SOME \r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING IT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALSO \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...COOLING SSTS SHOULD BE AN INHIBITING \r\nFACTOR.  WITH THE QUESTIONABLE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT AND THE CURRENT \r\nNOT-SO-IMPRESSIVE APPEARENCE OF MANUEL...I HAVE FURTHER REDUCED THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nLATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT LATEST FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE \r\nOVERALL MOVEMENT.  IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL IS SITUATED IN A BROAD \r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  AS NOTED IN THE EARLIER \r\nDISCUSSION...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE BUILDING OF A 500 MB \r\nHIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF MANUEL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE \r\nTHE FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN SOON.  THIS \r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND TO THE MODEL \r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 14.4N 113.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 114.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 115.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 117.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":19,"Date":"2001-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2001\r\n \r\nNEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER IN RECENT\r\nHOURS...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS LITTLE OR NO BANDING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM\r\nSAB.  THE SHAPE OF THE CONVECTION INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES FROM AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE CENTER MAY BE\r\nDRIFTING NOW TO THE NORTHWEST.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD.  CONSISTENT WITH THIS\r\nPATTERN...ALL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL EDGE AWAY FROM MANUEL \r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW EVOLVES AS \r\nFORECAST...THE SHEAR WOULD LESSEN AND THERE WOULD BE SOME \r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN SHOWING MODEST STRENGTHENING \r\nOUT TO 36 HOURS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD COOLING SSTS AND \r\nINCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE INHIBITING \r\nFACTORS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 14.6N 114.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 114.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N 115.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.6N 117.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 119.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N 121.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":20,"Date":"2001-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/05.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT \r\n72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF \r\nSTORM.  THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nABOUT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nFOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THESE MODELS.\r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE APPEARS TO\r\nBE SOME BANDING OF THIS CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35\r\nKNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  BY 72\r\nHOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 16.1N 114.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.8N 115.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.6N 116.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.3N 117.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.2N 118.9W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":21,"Date":"2001-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/06.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TO MEXICO OVER THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nSTORM AND CUTS OFF A LOW AT 500 MB.  THE AVN...GFDL...UKMET AND \r\nNOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 \r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THESE \r\nMODELS.  \r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE BANDING SEEN \r\nEARLIER IS NO LONGER AS WELL DEFINED.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED \r\nREMAINS 35 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST \r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM \r\nSSTS.  BY 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.\r\n\r\nA 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS ALL WINDS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE \r\nCENTER AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED RADII ARE ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT FOR \r\nTHIS...BUT THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SYMMETRIC IN 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/WALLACE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 16.6N 115.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.3N 116.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 119.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.1N 120.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":22,"Date":"2001-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES MANUEL IS BECOMING BETTER \r\nORGANIZED WITH A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER....ALTHOUGH \r\nTHE CIRCULATION STILL APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED SW TO NE. DVORAK \r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER \r\nMANUEL AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE \r\nWITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN 24 TO 36 \r\nHOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MANUEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER  \r\nWATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/07. THE TRACK FORECAST \r\nPHILOSOPHY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN THAT THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE \r\nNEAR BAJA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 130W SHOULD \r\nINDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS \r\nREMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 36 \r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH \r\nTHE NOGAPS THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE AVN AND BAMS ACCELERATE \r\nMANUEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS \r\nJUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\nTHIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GUNA ENSEMBLE OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS \r\nAND AVN TRACKS.     \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 17.3N 116.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 117.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.9N 118.6W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.3N 121.3W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N 123.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":23,"Date":"2001-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND WIND SHEAR CHARTS FROM UW/CIMSS SUGGEST THAT \r\nMANUEL HAS PASSED ACROSS AN UPPER COL REGION AND THAT THE SHEAR IS \r\nNOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY LOCATED INSIDE \r\nTHE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE BLOB.  DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT USING THE SHEAR PATTERN.  \r\nHOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT HAD NOTHING OVER 40 KT...EVEN \r\nRAIN-FLAGGED...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/9...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN FACT THE CENTER MIGHT EVEN BE FURTHER \r\nWEST THAN INDICATED HERE.  MANUEL IS MOVING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A \r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE \r\nWESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO \r\nWEAKEN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM \r\nCENTRAL CALIFORNIA.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE AVN AND \r\nLBAR...RESPOND TO THIS WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK LATE IN THE \r\nPERIOD...WHILE THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE A WEAKENING SYSTEM \r\nMORE TO THE WEST.  GIVEN THAT THE SSTS SHOULD BE DECREASING AND THE \r\nSHEAR INCREASING SHARPLY BY 48 HOURS...I SUSPECT THE LATTER SCENARIO \r\nIS THE MORE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS...WHERE IT IS ADJUSTED TO THE \r\nLEFT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 17.8N 117.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.6N 118.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.8N 119.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.9N 121.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 122.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N 124.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":24,"Date":"2001-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...MANUEL HAS GONE THROUGH A TEMPORARY \r\nBURSTING PHASE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENING AND NOW REFORMING NEAR \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS MAINTAINED \r\nBASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND \r\nSAB. OUTFLOW IS LESS RESTRICTED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS \r\nBECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINITY OF \r\nCENTER POSITIONING FROM INFARED IMAGERY...WE DID NOT WANT TO DEVIATE \r\nMUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION.  HOWEVER...LONG TERM \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL IS CONTINUING IN A GENERAL \r\nNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER \r\nRIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WITH A \r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE \r\nLIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THEREFORE THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN \r\nINTACT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP MANUEL ON A \r\nGENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  FORECAST GUIDANCE \r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 36 \r\nHOURS...AND THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTERWARDS.  THE BAM MODELS \r\nTAKE MANUEL RAPIDLY NORTH AND NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN \r\nCALIFORNIA...WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE REMAINING MODELS TAKE MANUEL WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nTO NORTHWEST...WITH THE AVN BEING THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS. ONCE \r\nWEAKENING BEGINS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...MANUEL SHOULD BE STEERED MORE \r\nWESTWARD BY THE DOMINATE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GFDL \r\nAND UKMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nSINCE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...MANUEL \r\nIS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT \r\nREMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL \r\nSHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING.\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 36 \r\nHOURS...WITH STEADY WEAKENING AFTERWARDS AND DISSIPATION IN 72 \r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 18.1N 118.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.9N 121.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 122.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.8N 123.7W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N 125.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":25,"Date":"2001-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001\r\n  \r\nMANUEL MOST LIKELY PEAKED PRIOR TO 12Z BASED ON 16/1009Z AMSU-B AND\r\n16/1424Z SSMI MICROWAVE DATA WHICH SHOWED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.\r\nSINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND IS LIMITED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT BASED\r\nON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING.  VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nFASTER...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH IS NOW EXERTING MORE OF A WESTERLY INFLUENCE ON \r\nMANUEL.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nTO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE BAM MODELS CONTINUE \r\nTO INDICATE NORTHWARD MOTION AT 72 HOURS...BUT THIS SCENARIO HAS \r\nBEEN IGNORED DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...AND IS \r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE WESTWARD \r\nTREND CONTINUES...THEN THE FORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED A \r\nLITTLE FARTHER SOUTH ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION AS MANUEL \r\nGOES THROUGH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT. \r\nAFTERWARDS...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DECREASING SSTS...AND THE \r\nEXPECTED ENTRAINMENT OF COOL STABLE AIR TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO \r\nRAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL \r\nMAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN DISSIPATES \r\nTHE SYSTEM IN 60 TO 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF MANUEL TAKES MORE OF A \r\nWESTWARD TRACK AND REMAINS OVER WARMER SSTS...WEAKENING AND \r\nDISSIPATION COULD BE DELAYED. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 18.8N 120.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N 121.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N 123.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.9N 125.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.7N 126.8W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":26,"Date":"2001-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2001\r\n \r\nMANUEL CONTINUES TO HANG ON THIS EVENING. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION  \r\nNEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD TOP \r\nTEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE TEMPORARY. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES MANUEL IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT \r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. HOWEVER...\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DECREASING SSTS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF \r\nCOOL STABLE AIR TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BY \r\n24-36 HOURS. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH 12 \r\nHOURS THEN STEADILY WEAKENS MANUEL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD \r\nWITH DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nSHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF MANUEL TAKES MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK AND \r\nREMAINS OVER WARMER SSTS...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION COULD BE \r\nDELAYED. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. THE WEAKENING TREND CURRENTLY FORECAST SHOULD\r\nCAUSE STEERING DOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM A LARGE RIDGE TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF MANUEL. THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND TO THE LEFT\r\nOF ALL THE GUIDANCE.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 19.5N 120.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.4N 122.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.6N 124.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 22.6N 126.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N 130.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":27,"Date":"2001-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2001\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE DOWN AND ARE NOW 35 AND 45 \r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  \r\nMANUEL IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SSTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 26C.  THE \r\nAVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ARE UNANIMOUS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE \r\nINCREASING SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ADD IN THE \r\nCONTRIBUTION FROM COOLER WATERS...AND MANUEL SHOULD BE ON THE FAST \r\nTRACK TO DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK \r\nAGAIN.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS ERODING... \r\nAND MANUEL STILL HAS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RESPONDING.  \r\nALTHOUGH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...MANUEL SHOULD \r\nBE PROGRESSIVELY STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AND SO PROBABLY WILL \r\nNOT TURN MUCH MORE TO THE RIGHT...AND IF SO ONLY BRIEFLY.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nDUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY RECENT TRACK...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET \r\nAND THE AVN SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 20.2N 121.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 21.2N 122.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N 123.8W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.2N 125.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N 126.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":28,"Date":"2001-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2001\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND \r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL.  SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT... \r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED \r\nTO 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9 KT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF \r\nMANUEL HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWESTERLY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. \r\nTHIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MANUEL \r\nDISSIPATES IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nUKMET-GFDL-AVN-NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nCENTER...INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER \r\nSSTS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD \r\nRESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS \r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH INDICATES \r\nDISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 20.8N 121.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 21.7N 122.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.8N 123.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.6N 124.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":29,"Date":"2001-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2001\r\n \r\nTHE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF MANUEL THIS\r\nMORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.  MANUEL NOW CONSISTS OF A LARGE\r\nSWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO\r\nDECREASE.  THEREFORE...MANUEL HAS BEEN DROWNGRADED TO A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/9 KT. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY \r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL \r\nCONSENSUS...EXCPET THAT THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE \r\nRIGHT TO THE RIGHT. AS MANUEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE MID-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION MAY MOVE MORE NORTHWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\nCONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nMANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER \r\nSSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS \r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION \r\nBY 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 21.8N 121.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 122.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N 122.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":30,"Date":"2001-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2001\r\n \r\nMANUEL IS ESSENTIALLY A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH\r\nONLY AN ISOLATED AREA OF CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER. MANUEL IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND THIS\r\nSHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ACCELERATE THE \r\nOVERALL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST \r\nADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THE NHC TRACK MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION...THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING THE NOGAPS AND UKMET \r\nMODELS WHICH ARE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST. SINCE MANUEL IS FOR\r\nTHE MOST PART A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH \r\nSTEERING DOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nMANUEL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12 \r\nHOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF \r\nSTRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION IN 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL CAN \r\nBE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS \r\nAND FORECAST BRANCH UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 OR WMO HEADER \r\nFZPN03 KNHC. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 22.2N 122.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 23.1N 122.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2001\r\n\r\nAT 1200 UTC BOTH TAFB AND SAB GAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n30 KTS FOR THIS SYSTEM.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BANDING AROUND AN\r\nESTIMATED CENTER.  THE SYSTEMS ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN STEADLY\r\nIMPROVING OVER THE PAST 24 HOUR WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ON THE\r\nWESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND FAIR ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.\r\nCERTAINLY...THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS ADEQUATE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH SST VALUES IN THE 27C TO 28C TEMPERATURE RANGE.\r\nBASED UPON THIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...NUMBER SIXTEEN FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN THIS YEAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/16.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH \r\nSIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.  GLOBAL MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE GFDL BUT \r\nREASONABLY CLOSE TO THE AVN.\r\n\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 50 TO 55 \r\nKTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS BUT BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 \r\nHOURS...WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SHEARING \r\nTHE SYSTEM.  SST VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 26C TO 27C RANGE AT 72 \r\nHOURS WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENED SLOWLY.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 11.3N 125.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 12.0N 128.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.3N 130.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N 133.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 14.8N 136.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2001\r\n \r\nAT 1730 UTC BOTH TAFB AND SAB GAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n35 KTS AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BAND \r\nAROUND THE CENTER AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER \r\nAROUND 1630 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GET BETTER \r\nORGANIZED AND IS PROBABLY GETTING STRONGER.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE SEA SURFACE IS WARM ENOUGH. BASED UPON \r\nTHIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM NARDA...THE FOURTEENTH \r\nNAMED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN THIS YEAR.\r\n\r\nAT 1800 UTC SHIP ELZF9 ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED\r\nA NORTHWEST WIND OF ABOUT 10 KTS.  HIS PRESSURE OF 1017 MB SEEMS TO\r\nBE A BIT HIGH.  THIS CONFIRMS THAT WE HAVE A FAIRLY BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL 34 KT WIND RADII WILL BE 50 NM IN ALL\r\nQUADS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS ABOUT THE SAME...MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR AND\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 50 TO 55\r\nKTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS BUT BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SHEARING\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  SST VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 26C TO 27C RANGE AT 72\r\nHOURS WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENED SLOWLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 11.9N 127.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 12.9N 129.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.4N 133.6W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 16.1N 136.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 140.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2001\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NARDA IS CONSOLIDATING THIS EVENING...\r\nWITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING\r\nOVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH\r\nINCLUDE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE \r\nESTIMATES AND THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE 00Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nNARDA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND THAT A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL\r\nPORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD \r\nWESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE NARDA ALONG A WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nPOSSIBLY WEST TRACK.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD...\r\nWITH THE GFDL...UKMET AND BAMS FAVORING A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND\r\nBAMD...BAMM..AND LBAR FAVORING A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWEST MOTION. \r\nGIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL GO WITH THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...BAMS SOLUTION AND WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nNARDA IS SHOWING GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST\r\nWHERE FOR THE MOMENT IT SEEMS TO BE REPELLING ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES.  BASED ON THIS AND THE INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION...\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE RAISED A LITTLE.  IN THE\r\nLONG-TERM...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD CREATE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE PATH OF NARDA AFTER 36 HR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE STRONG SHEAR.  THUS...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST \r\nAFTER THE 36 HR POINT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE\r\nTHAT NARDA COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 12.5N 128.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.4N 129.9W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 134.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 16.2N 136.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 141.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2001\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  THE AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nA RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.\r\n \r\nA COLD CDO FEATURE PERSISTS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AFTER WHICH UPPER LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nWEAKEN THE STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 12.6N 129.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.5N 130.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.2N 135.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 137.6W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 17.6N 142.3W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-10-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2001\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.5...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 55 KNOTS.  THERE IS\r\nDECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM...AND FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...NARDA SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IN A DAY OR\r\nSO...AND COMMENCE WEAKENING.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE LATEST\r\nGFDL MODEL RUN CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN SHOWN HERE...BUT\r\nTHAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS FOR INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION...PARTICULARLY IN CASES OF STRONG SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...295/12...IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME GENERAL TRAJECTORY AS THE GFDL/\r\nU.K. MET/NOGAPS/AVN MODEL CONSENSUS...GUNA...ALBEIT A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER.  THE GFDL TRACK IS SLOWER THAN...AND TO THE RIGHT OF...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 13.7N 130.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.5N 131.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 134.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 16.2N 136.6W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 139.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 143.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Narda","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-10-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2001\r\n\r\nRECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE AND A \r\nBANDING FEATURE WRAPPING MORE THAN 100 PER CENT AROUND THE CENTER.  \r\nBOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON DETERMINED A DATA T-NUMBER OF \r\n4.0...FOR AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KNOTS.  ON THIS BASIS...NARDA \r\nIS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO \r\nLOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH WEAK TO THE SOUTH...AND SHEAR IS \r\nNOT PROHIBITIVELY STRONG AT THE MOMENT.  HOWEVER...NUMERICAL \r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE INCREASE OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER NARDA IN \r\n1-2 DAYS.  SOME MORE STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT \r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING.  THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TRENDS INDICATED BY THE LATEST \r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS MORE \r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN OTHER MODELS...BUT IT HAS A WELL-KNOWN TENDENCY \r\nTO OVER-INTENSIFY SYSTEMS IN CASES OF STRONG SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION...TRACK FORECAST...AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE BASICALLY \r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC \r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF NARDA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT \r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS MEANS THAT THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS \r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...FASTER THAN \r\nTHE GFDL FORECAST BUT SLOWER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST AVN OUTPUT. \r\n\r\nTHE 34-KNOT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT BASED ON A \r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER NARDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 14.2N 131.2W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.0N 132.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.0N 135.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 138.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Narda","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2001\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS \r\nCONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.  A SMALL CDO AND AN INTERMITTENT EYE \r\nHAVE DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND A BURST OF VERY DEEP \r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON A \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT...T4.5...FROM TAFB PLUS \r\nA 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT...ODT4.6.  UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME \r\nSIGNIFICANT WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...\r\nWHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES. \r\nOTHERWISE...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST OR SLIGHTLY \r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO COME UNDER \r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW \r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP MID-OCEANIC TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING \r\nSOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME \r\nSEVERELY SHEARED BY 48 HOURS AND DEGRADE INTO MORE OF A SHALLOW \r\nSYSTEM BY...THUS BEING STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL \r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO ITS \r\nNORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK AND THE 21/12Z NOGAPS MODEL...BUT MUCH SLOWER AND A LITTLE \r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN THE AVN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nNARDA APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 18 HOURS INTO ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION \r\nPERIOD.  GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS THAT EXISTS...THE RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS WOULD GENERALLY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 \r\nHOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NEXT 12 TO \r\n18 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPRESS THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AS \r\nSUCH...NARDA IS ONLY FORECAST TO REACH 85 KT...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE LATEST GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS.  BUT IF THE \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME AS STRONG AS THE 25 TO 36 KT THAT THE \r\nAVN MODEL IS FORECASTING...THEN NARDA COULD PEAK BETWEEN 90 AND 100 \r\nKT IN 12 TO 18 HOURS.  BY 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nTRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BE SEVERELY AFFECTED BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nNARDA IS A FAIRLY COMPACT SYSTEM AND SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN \r\nINTENSITY WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE WIND FIELD SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TIME \r\nTO INCREASE. AS SUCH...THE WIND RADII WERE KEPT SMALLER THAN WHAT \r\nWOULD TYPICALLY BE EXPECTED FOR AN 85 TO 90 KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 14.6N 131.8W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 133.4W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.6N 135.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 138.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N 141.1W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Narda","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2001\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS\r\nLEVELED OFF AT 75 KNOTS.  AN AMSU CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE AT 22Z\r\nWAS 996 MB...WEAKER THAN THE 77-KNOT/979-MB DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR\r\n00Z.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0248Z DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND\r\nMEASURED HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 50 KNOTS... CONTAMINATED OR\r\nUNCONTAMINATED.  FINALLY SSMI PASSES AT 0515Z AND 0613Z SHOW THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nDECREASED BY 5 KNOTS TO 70 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES A\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OF 21 KNOTS BASED ON THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL ANALYSIS\r\nAND FORECASTS 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR IN 24 HOURS.  THE DISPLACED LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER SEEN IN THE SSMI IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE.  CIMSS SATELLITE WIND SHEAR\r\nANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A 20 KNOTS SHEAR ISOTACH DIRECTLY OVER NARDA.\r\nTHIS SHEAR IS NOT YET EVIDENT ON IR IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nASSUMES THAT NARDA HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10 BASED ON A COMPROMISE INITIAL\r\nPOSTION BETWEEN THE 0515Z SSMI LOCATION AND 06Z IR FIXES.\r\nMAINTAINING A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NARDA...THE\r\nAVIATION AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST A 275 AND 290 DEGREE HEADING AT\r\n15 KNOTS OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS\r\nMUCH SLOWER AND A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A \r\nBLEND OF THESE MODELS AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 15.5N 132.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.4N 134.0W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.3N 136.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.9N 138.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N 140.4W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.0N 144.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Narda","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT NARDA IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER- \r\nLEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS THE CIRRUS CANOPY OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE HAS A RATHER SHARP EDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  IT \r\nAPPEARS THAT THE HURRICANES MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS \r\nDISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nNUMBERS...WHICH MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A \r\nWHILE AFTER THE INITIAL SIGNS OF WEAKENING ARE EVIDENT...AND THE \r\nLATEST DATA T NUMBERS.  WITH NARDA LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH \r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG...AND INCREASING...VERTICAL SHEAR... \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS THE \r\nSYSTEM DOWN TO DEPRESSION STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... HOWEVER \r\nTHE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NARDA MAY DISSIPATE BY THAT \r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE \r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION AND \r\nFORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONES.   A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF NARDA \r\nSHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION \r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE \r\nNORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE \r\nLATEST GFDL RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 15.7N 134.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.4N 135.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 142.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Narda","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2001\r\n\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING CONTINUES...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT YET \r\nEXPOSED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...IT MAY \r\nBECOME SO AT ANY TIME.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS...WHICH \r\nIS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL \r\nOUTPUT...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AND PROBABLY INCREASE \r\nWITH TIME.  THEREFORE NARDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.  IN \r\nFACT...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES AN \r\nEVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN IS SHOWN HERE.  \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK CONTINUES ALONG ABOUT 295/11.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK \r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 16.2N 135.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.8N 136.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.3N 141.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2001\r\n \r\nNARDA IS A DEEPLY-FLAWED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH ITS CENTER EMERGING\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS\r\nSTILL YIELD 65 KT...BUT THE T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 3.0...45 KT.\r\nDVORAK CONSTRAINTS OFTEN KEEP CI NUMBERS UP TOO LONG IN WEAKENING\r\nSYSTEMS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWN TO 60 KT.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR CURRENTLY\r\nAFFECTING NARDA WILL BE INCREASING...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK IS 285/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.\r\nMUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER NARDA WILL BE\r\nABLE TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND VERTICAL CONTINUITY TO\r\nRESPOND TO THAT FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  ONLY THE AVN...WHICH SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK FOR 36 HOURS\r\nAND THEN DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...IS FURTHER SOUTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 16.3N 135.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.7N 137.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 17.4N 140.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 142.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2001\r\n \r\nUNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED\r\nTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS SEEN ON\r\nINFRARED...SSMI...AND TRMM IMAGERY.  AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS \r\nQUICKLY DISAPPEARING.  SO NARDA IS ON HER WAY OUT.  00Z DVORAK \r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED \r\nFOR 09Z IS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN A \r\nDAY OR SO.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF \r\nMOTION AND THE SHORTER TERM MOTION IS 270 DEGREES.  SINCE NARDA IS \r\nBECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...THE MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE \r\nDUE WESTWARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  HOWEVER ALL OF THE GUIDANCE \r\nMODELS SHOW SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...SO THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE LEFT OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 16.2N 137.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.4N 138.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.9N 141.4W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.3N 143.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.8N 146.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2001\r\n\r\nSTRONG SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON NARDA...AND REMOVED ESSENTIALLY \r\nALL DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT SWIRL OF \r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH ESTIMATED MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  \r\nINTERMITTENT FLARE-UPS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM \r\nARE POSSIBLE TODAY.  OTHERWISE...NARDA CAN BE CONSIDERED AS A \r\nDISSIPATING REMNANT LOW.  ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED \r\nLATER TODAY. \r\n\r\nTHE WESTWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED TO 14 KNOTS...OR MORE...AS NARDA \r\nIS BEING STEERED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWINDS.  A GENERAL \r\nWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS 140W AND ENTER \r\nTHE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...CPHC...AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY \r\nLATER TODAY.  THEREFORE THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED BY \r\nTHE CPHC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 16.4N 139.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.7N 141.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.1N 143.3W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 145.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI\r\n11 AM HST TUE OCT 23 2001\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA HAS CROSSED INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC \r\nWITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS ALMOST BEREFT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS EASILY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH \r\nTHE COOLEST CLOUD TOPS LINING THE NORTHEAST FLANK OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BUBBLE UP FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT \r\nNARDA IS DISSIPATING AND MAY NOT WARRANT ADVISORIES AFTER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS AND IS \r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS HEADING THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER POWELL\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 16.3N 140.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.4N 142.6W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N 145.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.8N 148.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 150.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.3N 155.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2001-10-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST TUE OCT 30 2001\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES \r\nSOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS \r\nEVENING AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E.\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 \r\nHOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT \r\nFROM SAB. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE WEST BUT RESTRICTED TO THE EAST DUE \r\nTO EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14.  TD-17E IS EXPECTED TO TRACK \r\nIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN \r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER \r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING \r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE \r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. RECURVATURE TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING \r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nMEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS...EXCEPT SLOWER LIKE THE AVN MODEL \r\nSOLUTION.\r\n\r\nTHE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE \r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO AROUND 5 KT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS \r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS OR COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH ABOUT 48 \r\nHOURS...AFTER WHICH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS \r\nEXPECTED TO KICK IN.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY WARM \r\nENOUGH TO SUPPORT MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH AND THIS COULD OCCUR BY \r\nAROUND 48 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE \r\nCYCLONE TO 49 KT IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR \r\nMODEL WHICH MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RIGHT INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND 30 TO \r\n40 KT OF SHEAR...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 12.5N 123.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 13.1N 125.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 14.4N 126.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 15.8N 127.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.3N 127.3W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 125.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":2,"Date":"2001-10-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2001\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INTENSE \r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION AND SOME EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  LATEST \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB \r\nSUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS MODEST \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO \r\nFAVOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT \r\nDISSIMILAR TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...SHIPS...OR \r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLING SSTS \r\nSHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER \r\nSPEED...12 KNOTS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE \r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO SLOW \r\nFURTHER AND BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT.  HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK MODEL \r\nOUTPUT SUGGESTS NOT QUITE AS SHARP A TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT \r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL \r\nMODEL...AVN FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 12.8N 124.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 14.8N 127.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.2N 128.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":3,"Date":"2001-10-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2001\r\n\r\nOCTAVE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nOF -80C NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FIRST DAYLIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES WILL REVEAL A STRONGER SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/\r\nUPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OCTAVE...WITH SIGNS OF A BREAK\r\nOR WEAKNESS NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  SEVERAL GUIDANCE MODELS...\r\nINCLUDING THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...THE GFDL...THE AVN...AND THE\r\nUKMET...TURN OCTAVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.  OTHERS...LIKE THE\r\nNOGAPS AND THE NHC91...FORECAST A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE NORTHWARD TURN SCENARIO IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nOCTAVE HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...AND\r\nTHAT COMBINED WITH THE COLD CLOUD TOPS INDICATES THAT CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...A\r\nCOMBINATION OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 13.4N 125.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.2N 126.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 15.6N 127.9W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 16.9N 128.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 128.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":4,"Date":"2001-10-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST WED OCT 31 2001\r\n\r\nWHILE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING\r\nTHE DAY...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CURVATURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/\r\nUPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF OCTAVE...WITH SIGNS OF A\r\nBREAK OR WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  SEVERAL \r\nGUIDANCE MODELS...INCLUDING THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...THE GFDL...AND\r\nTHE AVN...CONTINUE TO TURN OCTAVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. \r\nOTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS...FORECAST A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION.  JUST TO CONFUSE THINGS FURTHER...THE NHC91 HAS SWITCHED\r\nFROM A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TO A NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nHAS CHANGED FROM A NORTHWARD TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE NORTHWARD TURN\r\nSCENARIO.\r\n \r\nOCTAVE HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...AND\r\nTHAT COMBINED WITH GOOD ORGANIZATION INDICATES THAT CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...A\r\nCOMBINATION OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 13.7N 126.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 15.9N 128.4W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.3N 128.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":5,"Date":"2001-11-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2001\r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND OCTAVE IS BEGINNING \r\nTO LOOK MORE LIKE A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL DEEP \r\nCONVECTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT WEAK AND DISORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE IMPRESSIVE \r\nBANDING FEATURES AS SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY \r\nCONTINUES TO INDICATE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST \r\nOF OCTAVE...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH AND \r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE ONLY NHC MODEL THAT RECURVES THE \r\nSTORM IS THE LBAR MODEL.  THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE \r\nTHE STORM NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.  THE EXCEPTION IS THE UKMET \r\nMODEL...WHICH TAKES OCTAVE WESTWARD.  THIS SCENARIO WAS DISCOUNTED \r\nSINCE THE UKMET KEEPS THE CYCLONE VERY WEAK AND...AS A RESULT... \r\nDRIVES IT WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL \r\nEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nALMOST ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GFDL \r\nAND AVN MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nOCTAVE POSSESSES GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...WHICH CONTINUES TO \r\nIMPROVE.  GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AND DECREASING \r\nSHEAR...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST 24 TO PERHAPS 36 HOURS \r\nSEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.  BY 36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR \r\nBEGINS TO INCREASE AND THIS...COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS...SHOULD \r\nBRING ABOUT A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY...WHICH BRINGS OCTAVE TO NEAR HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 14.6N 127.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 15.5N 128.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.7N 128.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 19.1N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 129.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":6,"Date":"2001-11-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2001\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...55 KNOTS FROM SAB \r\nWASHINGTON AND 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB MIAMI...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT \r\nAT 50 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY WELL \r\nORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH \r\nAND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING A BIT ELONGATED TOWARD THE \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CALLS FOR LITTLE \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO \r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SSTS SHOULD BE COOLING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND \r\nSPEED FORECAST GOES WITH THIS IDEA...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN THE STORM \r\nAS FAST AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/10.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEAKENING \r\nSTORM SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM LAYER BAM TRACK. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 17.7N 129.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N 129.8W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 130.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":7,"Date":"2001-11-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST THU NOV 01 2001\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OCTAVE IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAND IN FACT AN EYE MAY BE FORMING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nINCREASING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 60\r\nKNOTS.  OCTAVE HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING\r\nOVER COOL WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nOCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ABOUT...4 TO 5 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THIS TRACK\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED WESTWARD\r\nBY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEYOND 3 DAYS.  MODELS ARE REALLY DIVERGENT\r\nAND TRACKS ARE IN GENERAL EITHER WESTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL AVN WHICH BRINGS\r\nOCTAVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 15.5N 128.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N 128.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 129.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Octave","Adv":8,"Date":"2001-11-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2001\r\n \r\nOCTAVE HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE AND T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED TO\r\n65 KNOTS SO...OCTAVE IS NOW A HURRICANE.  ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES COOL WATERS IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nOCTAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 350 AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOL WATERS AND BECOME STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEYOND 3 DAYS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE\r\nDIVERGENT AND TRACKS ARE IN GENERAL EITHER WESTWARD OR\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  ONLY THE GLOBAL AVN BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 16.2N 128.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N 128.8W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 129.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 129.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Octave","Adv":9,"Date":"2001-11-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2001\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OCTAVE HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS \r\nBASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5...77 KT... \r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN \r\nINCREASED TO 75 KT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE NORTH \r\n...BUT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/08.  OCTAVE HAS STAYED ON TRACK \r\nSO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR \r\nREASONING.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH \r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION \r\nIS WHETHER OR NOT OCTAVE WILL BECOME SHEARED BEFORE IT REACHES A \r\nWEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.  IF THE SYSTEM \r\nREMAINS VERTICALLY DEEP...THEN IT COULD STILL RECURVE A LITTLE TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER AND BENEATH \r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS \r\nCLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM QUITE \r\nWELL.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS IN TAKING \r\nTHE CYCLONE WESTWARD...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THESE MODELS TO DO \r\nWITH SMALL COMPACT SYSTEMS LIKE OCTAVE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR REASONING.  \r\nOCTAVE HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND COOLER WATER AND \r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BRING ABOUT \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY... \r\nEXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHEN IT DISSIPATES OCTAVE.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 16.8N 128.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 17.8N 128.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 18.9N 129.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 19.8N 129.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N 129.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N 129.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Octave","Adv":10,"Date":"2001-11-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n\r\nOCTAVE IS FEELING THE AFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THIS\r\nMORNING...AS MULTISPECTRAL NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY SUGGESTING THAT\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\n65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 75 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nOCTAVE IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND STRONGER\r\nSHEAR.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...\r\nAND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE \r\nNOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES OCTAVE IN 60 HR...SO IT COULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/8.  WHILE NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD...THE FACT THAT OCTAVE\r\nIS SHEARING SIMPLIFIES THE TRACK FORECAST TO A GREAT EXTENT.  THE\r\nCURRENT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AS THE VORTEX WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME\r\nPREDOMINANT.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND BAMS\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 17.5N 128.9W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 129.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N 129.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N 129.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N 129.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Octave","Adv":11,"Date":"2001-11-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE HURRICANE. INFRARED IMAGERY \r\nSHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF A SOMEWHAT \r\nPERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION.  CIMSS CLOUD-WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A \r\n30-KNOT ISOTACH OVER OCTAVE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 77 AND 65 KNOTS \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  THE \r\nSHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS AS DOES THE AVIATION \r\nMODEL.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON TO \r\nNEAR-HURRICANE WINDS FOR A WHILE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST \r\nIS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/07.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO \r\nIS FOR THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED BY LOW \r\nLEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE A SLOW MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN \r\nNEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE BAM-LOW...GFDL...NOGAPS \r\nAND UKMET MODELS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 18.1N 129.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 129.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.9N 130.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":12,"Date":"2001-11-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n \r\nOCTAVE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nWINDS.  THIS IS SEEN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER \r\nIS ABOUT 50 PERCENT EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\n DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65...65 AND 55 KNOTS FROM \r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFGWC.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z SHOWED NO WIND \r\nSPEEDS ABOVE 40 KNOTS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR AND \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS A CONSERVATIVE \r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE AT 60 KNOTS.  WITH CONTINUED SHEAR AND \r\nCOOLER SSTS AHEAD...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN 48 \r\nHOURS OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO\r\nIS FOR THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED BY LOW\r\nLEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE A SLOW MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nBAM-SHALLOW...GFDL...NOGAPS AND AVIATION MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 18.3N 129.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 130.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 131.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 132.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N 136.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":13,"Date":"2001-11-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nHAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON OCTAVE WITH VIRTUALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...DUE TO CONSTRAINTS...ARE \r\n55 AND 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 \r\nKNOTS. WITH NO SIGN OF THE SHEAR LETTING UP AND COOLER SSTS \r\nAHEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING AND \r\nDISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07.  THE TRACK FORECAST INDICATES \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND \r\nCONTINUE A SLOW MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH  \r\nTHE BAM-SHALLOW...UKMET...AND AVIATION MODELS AND TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 18.5N 130.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.1N 131.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.9N 133.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":14,"Date":"2001-11-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2001\r\n\r\nOCTAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ABOUT 75 NM\r\nNORTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH A VERY HOSTILE\r\nSHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nUNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/7...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY\r\nBE EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT.  OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 18.7N 131.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.1N 132.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 19.6N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 135.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Octave","Adv":15,"Date":"2001-11-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2001\r\n \r\nOCTAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB.\r\nTHUS...OCTAVE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  OCTAVE CONTINUES\r\nMOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nTHROUGH A VERY HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES AND BECOMES A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 12-24 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8.  OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE\r\nSTEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 18.8N 132.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.2N 133.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 19.7N 135.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Octave","Adv":16,"Date":"2001-11-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2001\r\n\r\nOCTAVE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND TAFB HAS ESTIMATED THE INTENSITY\r\nAT 25 KTS.  THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE SHEAR REMAINS FORMIDABLE AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN SO.  THE SYSTEM IS NOW DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND\r\nWILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS IT\r\nCONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION \r\nOCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 18.9N 133.1W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.2N 134.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 19.7N 136.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2002\r\n\r\nSURFACE...RADAR...UPPER-AIR...AND SATELLITE REPORTS INDICATE THAT \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT TRACKED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF OF \r\nMEXICO TO SOUTH CAROLINA HAS DEVELOPED WARM-CORE TROPICAL \r\nCHARACTERISTICS AND HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE 45 MILES \r\nSOUTH OF CAPE HATTTERAS. AT 18Z...SHIP ZCAQ8 REPORTED SOUTHERLY \r\nWINDS OF 34 KT ABOUT 85 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER IN SOME HEAVY \r\nSQUALLS. HOWEVER...DATA CHECKS BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER \r\nINDICATE THAT THE WIND REPORTS ARE JUST A LITTLE HIGH...SO THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WAS MADE A SOLID 30 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nINDICATES ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH HAS BEEN \r\nIMPROVING OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/17. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE \r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT AN EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THAT KEEPS THE \r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. GRADUAL \r\nACCELERATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE \r\nIN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THAT AS THE SYSTEM \r\nINTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BECOMES A BAROCLINIC OR HYBRID \r\nMID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK \r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE \r\nFACT THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM \r\nTONIGHT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM SEEMS REASONABLE \r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION IS \r\nEXPECTED AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MORE DEEPENING TO \r\nOCCUR AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM \r\nSOUTHWEST OF NOVA SCOTIA. A BLEND OF THE AVN AND SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODELS WAS USED FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 34.7N  75.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 35.9N  72.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 37.1N  67.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 39.0N  62.0W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 42.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 44.5N  57.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED \r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE DISRUPTING OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.  ALTHOUGH \r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT \r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO \r\nSTRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES OVER FAIRLY WARM \r\nWATERS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IN ANY EVENT... \r\nIN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL \r\nCHARACTERISTICS AND MERGE WITH A MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE SHORTLY \r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...060/17.  A \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN \r\nU.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY \r\nTHE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE \r\nU.S. EAST COAST.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED UNTIL \r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD AS \r\nIT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 35.3N  74.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 36.5N  71.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 38.0N  66.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 40.0N  60.0W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 43.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 46.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-07-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS ALMOST A TROPICAL STORM.  SHIP KRNJ\r\nREPORTED 30 KT WINDS AND 1008.0 MB PRESSURE NORTH OF THE CENTER AT\r\n06Z...INDICATING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO AT LEAST 1006\r\nMB.  BUOY 41001 HAS REPORTED 32 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 41 KT. \r\nSTRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP JUST EAST OF THE CENTER AND IN A \r\nBAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KT FOR SAB.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL\r\nREMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/16.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS STRAIGHT\r\nFORWARD...WITH THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A\r\nDEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  THIS SHOULD ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN IN 24-36 HR AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES\r\nINTO THE ATLANTIC.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKER.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL-AT-BEST WESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nHOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS IT MAY PRODUCE ENOUGH DIVERGENCE\r\nAND FORCING TO STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE DESPITE THE SHEAR UNTIL IT\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN \r\nABOUT 36 HR...THEN MAINTAINING 45 KT INTENSITY AS IT BECOMES\r\nABSORBED INTO THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH.\r\n\r\nBUOY 41001 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING 15 FT SEAS...SO 12 FT SEAS RADII\r\nARE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 35.8N  72.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 36.8N  69.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 38.8N  63.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 41.3N  58.3W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 44.0N  56.9W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 48.0N  56.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR BASED ON \r\nEARLIER REPORTS FROM U.S. NAVY SHIPS AND BUOY 41001 INDICATING \r\nSUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 35 TO 47 KT. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nHAS ALSO IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND SATELLITE DATA \r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 35 TO 45 KT. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS \r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT.  OUTFLOW IS NON-EXISTENT TO THE WEST DUE TO \r\nWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/20.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS \r\nFAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD WITH ARTHUR BEING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES \r\nAHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES \r\n...AND A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF MAINE IS WRAPPING \r\nUP AND DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A \r\nPOSITION JUST WEST OF ARTHUR IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND HELP TO DEEPEN \r\nTHE CYCLONE INTO A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\nSOUTHWEST OF NEWFOUNDLAND. GRADUAL ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE AS \r\nARTHUR MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS ARTHUR TURNS NORTHWARD \r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALL NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND OF THE \r\nAVN...UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION. \r\nHOWEVER...SOME INTENSIFICATION MAY NEED TO BE INCLUDED IN THE NEXT \r\nADVISORY PACKAGE SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF \r\nDEVELOPING BACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...\r\nTHE 00Z AND 06Z MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE STRNEGTH OF THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF MAINE WAS A LITTLE UNDERFORECAST. AS \r\nSUCH...INCREASING BAROCLINIC INTERACTION MAY PRODUCE A STRONGER \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS THAN WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nINDICATING. THIS INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO WILL ALSO BE EVALUATED IN \r\nTHE NEXT PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 36.4N  69.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 37.6N  65.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 40.1N  60.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 42.5N  57.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 45.1N  57.2W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 48.5N  56.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-07-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING \r\nTHE DAY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND THE CENTER HAS NOW \r\nMOVED UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD...\r\nDESPITE THE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 \r\nKT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM \r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE CLOUD APPEARANCE \r\nDURING THE PAST 2 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/23.  THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 24 HOURS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT\r\nFOR THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO\r\nTHE WEST OF ARTHUR BY 36 HOURS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON\r\nTHE GENERAL TREND OF THE DIGGING LOW CREATING BACKING...INCREASINGLY\r\nDIFFLUENT...AND WEAKENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS ARTHUR IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS WILL OCCUR OVER SUB-20C SST\r\nWATER. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE ABOVE THE COOL BOUNDARY\r\nLAYER WILL REMAIN WARM AND UNSTABLE.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOW- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND TRACK NORTHWARD\r\nAT A MUCH SLOWER SPEED AS THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW WEAKENS.  BY 48 HOURS...ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO BE AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADED FOR NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nAVN...UKMET...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE FACT THAT SST ANALYSES\r\nINDICATE THAT ARTHUR WILL BE PASSING OVER A WARM POOL...AT LEAST\r\n26C...FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nARTHUR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SHARP SST GRADIENT\r\nTHAT LIES BETWEEN 41N AND 43N LATITUDE...SO CONTINUED SLIGHT\r\nSTRENTHENING SEEMS IN ORDER.  AFTER THAT...MUCH COOLER SSTS TO THE\r\nNORTH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...\r\nINCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS COMBINED WITH THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR\r\nAND CONVECTION COULD INSTEAD RESULT IN A STRONG HYBRID LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM EXISTING AT THAT TIME.  COORDINATION WITH THE MARINE\r\nPREDICTION CENTER AND THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER CONCURS WITH\r\nTHIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO.  AS SUCH...THE PEAK FORECAST INTENSITIES\r\nWERE INCREASED TO 60 KT...BUT IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME AT ALL IF A\r\nBRIEF EYE-LIKE FEATURE APPEARED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nNOTE: INITIAL 34-KT AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON \r\nSURROUNDING 18Z SHIP REPORTS. 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ALSO INCREASED \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AT AND BEYOND 24 HOURS BASED ON INPUT FROM MPC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 37.3N  67.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 38.8N  63.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 41.3N  59.1W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 43.5N  58.9W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 45.3N  58.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 49.5N  56.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-07-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A GREATER SEPARATION DISTANCE BETWEEN THE \r\nLOW-CLOUD CENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK \r\nT-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE COME DOWN A BIT.  HOWEVER \r\nTHERE WAS A 45 KT WIND REPORT FROM A SHIP...WITH CALL SIGN LAFQ5...  \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS \r\nMAINTAINED AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIP REPORT ALSO \r\nSUGGESTS AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD...SO ARTHUR MAY ALREADY BE \r\nTAKING ON SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE SYSTEM IS \r\nAPPROACHING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS SO THE STRENGTHENING \r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS ASSUMES A BAROCLINIC SOURCE OF \r\nENERGY.  BASED ON THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN...ARTHUR SHOULD \r\nMERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE REACHING \r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n\r\nARTHUR'S FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 25 KT.  THE STORM IS \r\nEMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO \r\nUPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE...WHICH IS DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. \r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT WITH \r\nCONSIDERABLE DECELERATION AS ARTHUR ROTATES AROUND THE LARGER \r\nCYCLONE.  THIS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AS WELL.\r\n\r\nWIND AND SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN FURTHER INCREASED BASED ON SHIP \r\nOBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED GALE AND STORM WARNINGS FOR \r\nTHEIR APPROPRIATE COASTAL WATERS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 38.7N  63.9W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 40.5N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 43.0N  58.0W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 45.0N  57.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 46.0N  57.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z...MERGING WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-07-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...RATHER STRONG FOR SUCH HIGH LATITUDE AND COLD OCEAN.\r\nBECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH...INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 26 KNOTS AROUND A\r\nDEEPENING LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST. ARTHUR SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW WITH A DECREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS.  ARTHUR SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN 12 TO 24 \r\nHOURS AND WILL PROBABLY MERGE WITH THE LARGER CYCLONE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 39.1N  60.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 41.0N  57.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 46.0N  55.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 48.0N  56.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z MERGED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-07-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS SUGGEST THAT ARTHUR HAS NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED ANY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS ALSO \r\nBEGINNING TO TAKE ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN OCCLUDED EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\nPRESURE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.\r\n \r\nARTHUR HAS BEEN ACCLERATING MUCH FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE \r\nBEEN FORECASTING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/34 BASED ON AN \r\nEXPECTED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD THE \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 \r\nHOURS HAS BEEN CLOSE TO 40 KT. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTHE TREND OF SLOWING DOWN ARTHUR BY 12 HOURS AND TAKING THE SYSTEM \r\nMORE NORTHWARD AS AN EXTRATOPICAL LOW UNTIL LANDFALL OVER \r\nNEWFOUNDLAND OCCURS BY 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER.\r\n\r\nARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN THE \r\nNEXT 6 HOURS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST MAY PROVIDE\r\nENOUGH BAROCLINIC SUPPORT TO PRODUCE A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AS \r\nPER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER AND THE CANADIAN \r\nHURRICANE CENTER. EVEN THE THE GFDL MODEL IS INDICATING SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO AROUND 55 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 41.7N  57.1W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 45.0N  55.1W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 48.1N  54.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 54.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-07-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ARTHUR HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BASED ON \r\nTHE STRONG TILT OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS \r\nRELATIVE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS \r\nDECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 997 MB BASED ON A 15Z REPORT FROM BUOY 44141 \r\nOF 997.5 MB AND A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 39 KT WHEN THE CENTER \r\nPASSED JUST SOUTH OF THE BUOY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES \r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nWAS HELD AT 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/28. ARTHUR APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED \r\nITS FORWARD SPEED AND HAS MOVED MORE POLEWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER HAS STARTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATIONS. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE AVN \r\nAND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...UNLESS ARTHUR SLOWS AND MAKES A \r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN THE CYCLONE \r\nCOULD EASILY MISS MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND. \r\n \r\nARTHUR SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS... \r\nIF NOT SO ALREADY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED  BY VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED \r\nABOUT 40 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 60 NMI TO THE NORTH OF \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE \r\nOVER THE COLDER WATER OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE \r\nTROUGH WITH SOME RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT SOUTH \r\nOF NOVA SCOTIA MY PROVIDE A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY AND PRODUCE A \r\nLITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE \r\nCYCLONE FROM THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE \r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE \r\nFOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER \r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND \r\nALSO IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO \r\nHEADER WTCN31 CWHX.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 43.6N  54.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 46.8N  52.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 50.0N  52.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 55.0N  49.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOW SHOW A WELL DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...ENOUGH TO IDENTIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED SOUTH OR\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CLOUD AND RADAR MID-LEVEL CENTER AND THERE IS SOME\r\nUNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 360/5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION RUNS INTO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGES SHOW THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE NOT VERY\r\nSUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THERE APPEARS TO BE SHEARING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A FIVE KNOT\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 35 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION\r\nOVER LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A MODEST FIVE KNOT INCREASE\r\nIN WIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 29.0N  88.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 30.0N  88.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 30.5N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.9N  91.7W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  93.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-08-04 23:30:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n630 PM CDT SUN AUG 04 2002\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 5000 FT \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB \r\nAROUND 2300Z. THE SOUTH BILOXI BUOY ALSO REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE \r\nWINDS OF 33 KT WITH GUSTS TO 41 KT AT ABOUT THE SAME TIME. AS \r\nSUCH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM \r\nBERTHA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/06 BASED ON RADAR DATA AND THE \r\nTWO RECON FIXES. BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT \r\n12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER \r\nTHAT AS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES FROM THE EAST. ON THIS \r\nTRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER OR JUST NORTH OF NEW \r\nORLEANS LOUISIANA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE \r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BERTHA AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST MAY INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WELL AWAY FROM THE \r\nCENTER.  AS SUCH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM \r\nPASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WEST AND SOUTH TO THE MOUTH OF THE \r\nMISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE AND LAKE PONTACHARTRAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING \r\nTHE PAST 9 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME \r\nDURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. DOPPLER RADARS FROM SLIDELL AND MOBILE \r\nSTILL INDICATE DECENT BANDING ON THE NORTH SIDE WITH OCCASIONAL \r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 35 TO 50 KT BETWEEN 4000 AND 8000 FT. AS \r\nBERTHA MOVES CLOSER TO LAND...INCREASING FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE MAY \r\nHELP TO FIRE OFF MORE CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND ALLOW FOR A \r\nLITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND DURING THE \r\nDAY MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2330Z 29.4N  89.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 30.0N  89.8W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 30.5N  91.2W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.9N  92.8W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.4N  94.5W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 04 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON PENETRATION AT 05/0058Z FOUND AN EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL \r\nPRESSURE OF 1007 MB...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 1008 MB WHEN \r\nCORRECTED. WHILE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL IN INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY...A FEW STRONGER CELLS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHEAST \r\nOF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE SLIDELL DOPPLER RADAR HAS BEEN \r\nINDICATING 35 TO 50 KT WINDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 7000 FT AND THE SOUTH \r\nBILOXI BUOY HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 32 \r\nKNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL \r\nREMAIN AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS SUCH...THE TROPICAL STORM \r\nWARNING FROM PASCAGOULA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER \r\nREMAINS IN EFFECT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. RECON AND RADAR FIXES \r\nINDICATE THERE HAS BEEN SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS \r\nAS THE CENTER HAS WEAKENED AND REFORMED FARTHER WEST A COUPLE OF \r\nTIMES. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN TO THE NORTHWEST AND \r\nBERTHA MAY BE STARTING TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS \r\nINDICATED BY THE AVN/GFS MODEL AND OTHER NHC DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL ADVISORY \r\nTRACK AND NORTH OF THE AVN TRACK. THE 18Z AVN MODEL INITIALIZED \r\nBERTHA ABOUT 120 NM TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST...HENCE THE REASON FOR \r\nTHE MORE NORTHWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE MORE \r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...IF DEEP CONVECTION CAN REDEVELOP AROUND THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE TEMPERATURES OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND LAKE \r\nPONTCHARTRAIN ARE AROUND 30C TO 32C...SO THERE IS PLENTY OF FUEL. AS \r\nBERTHA MOVES CLOSER TO LAND...AN INCREASE IN THE FRICTIONAL \r\nCONVERGENCE MAY  HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD A \r\nLITTLE BIT AND ALSO ACT TO TRIGGER SOME MORE CONVECTION BY EARLY \r\nMONDAY MORNING WHEN THE SYSTEM IS JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE \r\nPONTCHARTRAIN. AFTER 12 HOURS...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND \r\nBERTHA SHOULD DISSIPATE INLAND OVER EAST TEXAS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\nHOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 29.6N  89.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 30.1N  90.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.6N  91.9W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  93.6W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 05 2002\r\n\r\nRADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER HAS\r\nWOBBLED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER SINCE\r\nTHERE IS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nBERTHA...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAK 500 MB HIGH\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS MAY TEND TO BLOCK THE\r\nFORWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nRATHER SLOW FORWARD SPEED...AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCURRENT GFS OUTPUT.  THE GFDL IS SOMEWHAT FASTER AND TAKES\r\nBERTHA...OR ITS REMNANTS...OVER TEXAS IN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS NOT MOVED THAT FAR INLAND YET...AND IS SITUATED OVER \r\nA RATHER SWAMPY SURFACE.  THEREFORE WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW TO \r\nOCCUR.  DOPPLER RADAR DATA STILL SHOW SOME SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM \r\nFORCE WINDS ALOFT...AT ABOUT 1000 FEET.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS \r\nINCREASED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THERE IS \r\nSTILL THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN SQUALLS AT \r\nTHE SURFACE.  THEREFORE BERTHA IS BEING KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR \r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION \r\nRATHER SOON.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN CONCERN WITH BERTHA IS RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF INLAND \r\nFLOODING...WHICH COULD BECOME MORE OF A PROBLEM IF THE CYCLONE MOVES \r\nEVEN MORE SLOWLY THAN FORECAST. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 29.8N  89.9W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.2N  91.0W    30 KTS...INLAND \r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  92.0W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 30.8N  93.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 05 2002\r\n \r\nRADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING\r\n335/10 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER NOW WELL\r\nINLAND NORTH OF LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nRAWINSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING BERTHA MORE WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...WHICH IS LIKELY HELPING THE CURRENT MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING.\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO\r\nAT LEAST 1010 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW HR\r\nARE 25 KT.  BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER\r\nINLAND AND DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN CONCERN WITH BERTHA IS RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF INLAND\r\nFLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA\r\nTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE TRAINING BANDS ARE POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER\r\nIN WASHINGTON DC UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32\r\nKWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 30.8N  90.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 31.5N  91.6W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  93.1W    15 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.5N  94.7W    15 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS\r\nOF BERTHA MOVED BACK OVER WATER.  THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAD A\r\nCIRCULATION AND NOW IT HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION TO UPGRADE\r\nTHE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.  RADAR\r\nESTIMATES FROM HOUSTON AND LAKE CHARLES INDICATE THAT WINDS ALOFT\r\nARE 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS ADJUSTED TO 25 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE IN A\r\nFEW SQUALLS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC/OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT UNFAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ON A TRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST.\r\n\r\nALL INTEREST IN THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERTHA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 29.0N  93.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 28.5N  94.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 28.5N  95.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 28.5N  96.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 28.5N  98.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER OF BERTHA HAS DISSIPATED.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nALSO INDICATES THAT BERTHA HAS A VERY TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION \r\nAND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nSMALL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED TO THE WEST \r\nAND SOUTH. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 25 KT WAS MAINTAINED \r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/06. BERTHA HAS BEEN TRACKING A LITTLE \r\nFASTER THAN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. \r\nON THIS TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE CENTRAL TEXAS \r\nCOAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MOVE WESTWARD AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE \r\nINLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS.\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM HELPING TO FORCE \r\nSOME DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THAT LOW HAS SINCE \r\nWEAKENED AND LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER \r\nCIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA. AS SUCH...THERE MAY BE  \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER UNTIL \r\nLANDFALL OCCURS. GIVEN SUCH A TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...THE \r\nWIND FIELD CAN QUICKLY SPIN UP IN RESPONSE TO ANY CONVECTIVE \r\nFLAREUPS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE \r\nFOR ANY SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE \r\nPROGRESS OF BERTHA IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME \r\nNECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 28.5N  94.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 28.4N  94.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 28.2N  96.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 28.2N  97.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 28.2N  99.2W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2002\r\n \r\nWHILE SOME CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF \r\nCIRCULATION...IT IS LIMITED AND SHOWS NO BANDING.  QUIKSCAT AND BUOY \r\nDATA DO NOT INDICATE ANY STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED...AND THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/7...AND AGAIN THE CYCLONE IS MOVING FASTER \r\nAND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  BERTHA IS SOUTH OF A WEAK \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MOTION AND IS TIGHTLY \r\nCLUSTERED...INDICATING A LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH \r\nTHE UKMET AND AVN. \r\n \r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER BERTHA WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO \r\nASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT NOT ALLOW MAJOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT BERTHA COULD REGAIN \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT THE ODDS OF THIS DO \r\nNOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 28.2N  94.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 27.7N  95.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 27.4N  97.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 27.5N  99.3W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2002\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED...RADAR IMAGES AND SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 25 KNOTS. THE CHANCES OF BERTHA \r\nREACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE SLIM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN \r\nABOUT 12 TO 15 HOURS.  HOWEVER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL TELL US \r\nTHE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 250/07. BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE \r\nNORTH IS STRONG AND FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL TRACK WILL \r\nLIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 27.6N  95.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 27.5N  97.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 27.0N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 27.0N 100.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2002\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE INVESTIGATED THE DEPRESSION AND FOUND A VERY POORLY \r\nDEFINED CIRCULATION WITH GUSTY WINDS IN FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WE ARE \r\nKEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A 25 KNOT DEPRESSION AND NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH \r\nIS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD \r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND MOVE INLAND IN 12 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY \r\nRAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO \r\n24 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 27.0N  96.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 27.0N  97.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 27.0N  99.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-08-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2002\r\n \r\nBERTHA CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\nBUOY 42020 SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PASSED \r\nCLOSE BY. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE NEW \r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 35 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN AN \r\nELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH. AS SUCH...WE HAVE OPTED TO USE A MID-POINT \r\nBETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN THE EVENT A NEW \r\nCENTER FORMS NEAR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT \r\nARE LIKELY CONFINED TO BRIEF HEAVY SQUALLS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/3 KT.  BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO  \r\nMOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBE NEAR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN CORPUS \r\nCHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE.  ONCE INLAND...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO  \r\nRAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE \r\nPOTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER \r\nLIKE IT DID EARLIER THIS MORNING.  IN FACT...THIS MAY ALREADY BE \r\nOCCURRING BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA INDICATING A SMALL BAND OF 45 \r\nTO 50 DBZ ECHOES DEVELOPING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  IF \r\nTHIS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN SOME SLIGHT \r\nSTRENGTHING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY \r\nTHAT BERTHA WOULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DUE TO ITS CLOSE \r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 26.9N  96.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 26.9N  97.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.9N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-08-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 09 2002\r\n \r\nRADAR...LAND AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nOF BERTHA IS MAKING LANDFALL.  CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO A\r\nPRIMARY BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  QUIKSCAT AND BUOY\r\nOBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE MUCH WIND WITH BERTHA AND THE INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 25 KT.\r\n\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42020 INDICATE THAT THE CENTER PASSED A SHORT \r\nDISTANCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUOY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/5.  \r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED \r\nTO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER MOVING INLAND.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE \r\nRATHER LEISURELY MOTION...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 26.8N  97.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 26.6N  98.3W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 26.5N  99.5W    20 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bertha","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 09 2002\r\n \r\nTHE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED\r\nINLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS. AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...THIS SYSTEM WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT\r\n12 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 27.0N  98.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 27.0N  99.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF \r\nTHE CAROLINA COAST HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS TUCKED IN NEAR A RAGGED CDO WITH TOPS TO -70C...AND THERE\r\nIS SOME OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nFOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 33 KT\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 105/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nA SLOW EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION.\r\nALL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO SAVE THE NHC98 AND\r\nBAMD.  THE NHC98 HAS THE DEPRESSION MISS CONNECTIONS WITH THE\r\nTROUGH AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE\r\nTHE BAMD MOVES THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CALLING FOR AN EVENTUAL\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER\r\nEASTERN GEORGIA IS PARTLY SHELTERING THE CYCLONE FROM THE \r\nWESTERLIES AND AIDING FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nUPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE GOING TO BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT BEST\r\nAFTER ABOUT 24 HR...AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DESPITE\r\nTHIS ENVIRONMENT...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL AGREE IN CALLING\r\nFOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HR.  WHILE NOT CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD MERGE WITH AN\r\nONCOMING COLD FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 31.9N  76.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 31.5N  76.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 31.2N  75.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 30.9N  74.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  72.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 05 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST RECON FIX AT 05/2143Z \r\nINDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED.\r\nTHE LAST RECON REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB WAS LIKELY \r\nASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SINCE \r\nWEAKENED OR DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION \r\nAND BANDING ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE TO PRODUCE CONSENSUS DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM ALL THREE \r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES...AND 30 KT WAS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE SOUTH AND RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTH DUE TO NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/5...AND THAT IS BEING ON THE \r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE. RECON AND RADAR FIXES UP THROUGH 0100Z INDICATED \r\nA SOLID SOUTHWEST MOTION AT AROUND 8 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE RADAR SIGNATURE IS POOR AT BEST...I \r\nHAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE SPEED SLOWER AND HEDGE A LITTLE TO THE EAST \r\nIN THE EVENT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING SHEARED FROM THE NORTHEAST. \r\nTHERE IS ALSO MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS \r\nPACKAGE. THE AVN...UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL AND EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM \r\nMODEL TAKE THE DEPRESSION EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD  AFTER 24 \r\nHOURS...WHEREAS THE MEDIUM BAM...NAVY COAMPS...AND A98E MODELS DRIFT \r\nTHE SYSTEM SOUTHEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY EASTWARD NORTH \r\nOF THE BAHAMAS. ONLY THE DEEP BAM MODEL TAKES THE CYCLONE SOUTHWEST \r\nACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL \r\nMODELS DIG THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST \r\nCOAST AND GRADUALLY PICK UP THE DEPRESSION AND RECURVE IT TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT ONGOING RIDGING SOUTH OF THE TROUGH \r\nAPPEARS TO PUSHING THE DEPRESSION FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANY \r\nOF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. IF THE CYCLONE SOMEHOW MAKES IT \r\nSOUTH OF 30N LATITUDE INTACT...THEN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MAY JUST \r\nBYPASS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND LEAVE THE DEPRESSION IN A WEAK \r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT THAT IT WAS ADJUSTED \r\nSOUTH AND THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASED A LITTLE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE \r\nRECENT SOUTHWARD MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR \r\nREASONING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND UP TO 52 KT BY 60 HOURS. \r\nTHIS SEEMS REASONABLE ASSUMING THE DEPRESSION MOVES EAST AND THEN \r\nNORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WILL HELP TO LESSEN THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. MERGER WITH A COLD FRONT AND \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD \r\nTHE DEPRESSION END UP GETTING CUTOFF NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...THEN ALL \r\nOF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD BE LOCATED BETWEEN THE \r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH OVER THE \r\nCARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 31.3N  77.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.7N  77.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 30.3N  75.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 30.4N  72.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 32.1N  69.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 39.5N  62.5W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nEXPOSED AS THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS MOSTLY\r\nDISSIPATED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n30 KT FROM SAB AND KGWC...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 180/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHWARD\r\nPROGRESS OF THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH.  VIRTUALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE\r\nENTRAINS THE CYCLONE INTO THIS TROUGH...BUT AT DIFFERENT RATES.\r\nGIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY MOTION TODAY...I AM INCLINED TO LEAN\r\nTOWARDS A SLOWER ACCELERATION THAN INDICATED BY THE AVN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nLIES IN BETWEEN THE UKMET AND AVN SOLUTIONS.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION\r\nMANAGE TO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT CONVECTION IN THE FACE OF THE\r\nUNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED BELOW...A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK\r\nWOULD LIKELY RESULT WITH AN EVEN SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION.\r\n \r\nWATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR BEING DRIVEN TOWARD\r\nTHE DEPRESSION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES.  IN ADDITION TO THE\r\nPOOR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS ALSO\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM...AND IS UNLIKELY TO ABATE WHILE THE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD.\r\nIN FACT...THE MOST RECENT VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS\r\nINCREASING.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE SHORT TERM PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DO NOT LOOK SO GOOD.  NONETHELESS...THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS CLOSE TO STORM STATUS...SO ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS\r\nWOULD GET IT THERE.  AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW\r\nWILL BECOME MORE UNIFORM...AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AT THAT TIME AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT TRACK AND WIND RADII FORECASTS IMPLY A CLOSE APPROACH OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 30.9N  77.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 30.2N  76.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 30.0N  75.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  72.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 33.0N  68.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 42.0N  60.0W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTLY FLOW HAS KEPT THE\r\nCENTER OF DEPRESSION EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER.  ALSO SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME\r\nORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  IN FACT...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUGGEST 35 KNOTS.  AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR A\r\nCONFIRMATION FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE LATER TODAY TO UPGRADE THE\r\nSYSTEM IF IT INDEED IS A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 5\r\nKNOTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER...A\r\nSTRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND SOON\r\nFORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST TRACK OVER\r\nTHE OPEN ATLANTIC. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IT SHOULD BE\r\nMERGING WITH A LARGE FRONTAL LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nIS 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION\r\nPROVIDED BY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL BUT REALLY MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nAGREE ON THIS TRAJECTORY BUT WITH DIFFERENT FORWARD SPEEDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 30.3N  76.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 30.0N  75.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 30.0N  74.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 30.5N  71.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  66.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 47.5N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS BEING\r\nPULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO A STRONG SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.  THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION\r\nOF THE BROAD CIRCULATION.  BECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS LESS\r\nORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...WE ARE KEEPING THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS\r\nAPPROACHING THE SYSTEM AND FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002 MB BUT \r\nNO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS YET. \r\n \r\nA STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND\r\nINTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  UK AND NCEP GLOBAL MODELS MAKE\r\nTHE DEPRESSION PART OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF THE SHEAR RELAXES AS\r\nINDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING EASTWARD. IT SHOULD\r\nSOON BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 30.5N  76.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  75.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 33.0N  69.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 38.5N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z ABSORBED BY A LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-08-06 23:30:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n730 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST HOUR...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE \r\nFOUND A PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 TO 52 KT\r\nBETWEEN 5000 AND 10000 FT...WHICH JUSTIFIES UPGRADING TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION THREE TO TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL.\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS JUST TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM CRISTOBAL. THERE ARE NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2330Z 30.2N  76.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  75.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 33.0N  69.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 38.5N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 999 MB PRESSURE BASED ON THE LAST \r\nRECON REPORT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A \r\n1002.2 MB PRESSURE FROM BUOY 41645 LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/03. CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MEANDERING\r\nOR RE-DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST\r\nABOUT 100 NM...WHICH IS WELL SOUTH OF ANY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL \r\nFORECASTS AT THAT TIME. THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE \r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE ON CRISTOBAL EVENTUALLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH \r\n24 HOURS AND THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT AND BECOMING \r\nABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT AND MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. \r\nHAVING SAID THAT...I AM STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT THAT THAT WILL \r\nOCCUR AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS ARE INDICATING...OR EVEN AT ALL. \r\nCRISTOBAL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A BASIC NORTHERLY CURRENT THAT IS \r\nWEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE DIFLUENT. THE EXCEPTION IS \r\nIN THE LOW-LEVELS WHERE A COLD FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ARE \r\nMOVING SOUTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO \r\nTHE CONVECTION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE BURST...AND EACH CONVECTIVE \r\nBURST HAS BEEN FARTHER SOUTH. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT CRISTOBAL \r\nWILL JUST SLOWLY FOLLOW THE CONVECTION SOUTHWARD AND POSSIBLY BECOME \r\nSEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH \r\nTIME. HOWEVER...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MODEL GUIDANCE OTHER THAN \r\nTHE ETA AND EXPERIMENTAL UKMET MODELS SUGGESTING THIS POSSIBILITY...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK ONLY \r\nSLOWER AND CLOSER TO THE 18Z AVN MODEL.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THAT CRISTOBAL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE \r\nNORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY \r\nIS POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY \r\nWEAKEN. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 54 KT AND \r\n58 KT IN 24 AND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS TREND WAS COLSELY \r\nFOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 30.0N  76.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 29.6N  75.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 30.4N  72.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 33.7N  67.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 37.5N  61.7W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF CRISTOBAL OVER \r\nTHE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING JUST OUTSIDE OF \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  FOR A TIME IT \r\nAPPEARED AS THOUGH SOME BANDING WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE \r\nCENTER...BUT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE \r\nWARMED A LITTLE AND SEPARATED SOME FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THERE HAS BEEN NO \r\nADDITIONAL RECON OVERNIGHT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 \r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 180/3...AS A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0222Z \r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHWARD DRIFT CONTINUES.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST UPON AN IMMINENT TURN TO THE \r\nEAST...A TURN WITH WHICH THEY HAVE CLEARLY BEEN TOO EAGER.  WATER \r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD \r\nTHROUGH THE CAROLINAS.  THIS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIGGING IN BEHIND \r\nCRISTOBAL...AND SO I STILL BELIEVE THAT THE EASTWARD TURN WILL \r\nOCCUR...ALBEIT DELAYED.  THE ETA MODEL MAY HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON \r\nTHINGS...SHOWING VERY LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AND \r\nTHEN A GRADUAL ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS WELL AS NEARLY \r\nALL OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE APPARENTLY GROWING SEPARATION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER...I DO NOT BELIEVE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT...AND WITH LUCK...THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF\r\nTHE END.  STILL...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS CRISTOBAL UP TO NEARLY\r\n60 KT...AND THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES GET CAUGHT UP\r\nIN THE TROUGH.  IN THIS SCENARIO...THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL\r\nAND IS ABSORBED WITHIN 72 H.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 29.5N  76.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 29.1N  76.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 29.4N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 33.0N  69.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 37.0N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nHAS THE APPEARANCE OF A STRONG LOW EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\nHOWEVER...CRISTOBAL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 40 KNOTS\r\nAND IS MOSTLY BASED ON A REPORT FROM SHIP WUQL AND CONTINUITY.  THIS\r\nSHIP WAS ALSO USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII OUTWARD.  STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS REPORTED BY RAOBS ALONG THE EAST COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nWITH SUCH A PATTERN...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM...AND\r\nTHE GFDL AND NAVY COAMPS MAKE CRISTOBAL A STRONG HURRICANE.  THIS IS\r\nNOT THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE LATTER\r\nSOLUTION IS OPTED FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nCRISTOBAL HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. MOST OF \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST \r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND \r\nNORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS GENERAL \r\nSOLUTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK CRISTOBAL LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 29.3N  76.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.3N  75.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 35.0N  66.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 42.0N  58.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OR INTENSITY\r\nOF CRISTOBAL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK AS A STRONG LOW\r\nEMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE.  THERE IS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.\r\nLATEST INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n1000 MB.  SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM...AND THE GFDL MAKE\r\nCRISTOBAL A STRONG HURRICANE.  ON THE CONTRARY...THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOUR OR SO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT THAT AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CRISTOBAL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLATEST FIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CRISTOBAL HAS\r\nBEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ...PRIMARILY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST AND\r\nGRADUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS GENERAL SOLUTION IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 29.8N  75.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 31.0N  73.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 38.0N  66.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 43.0N  59.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE \r\nEASTERN QUADRANT WITH A NEW CONVECTIVE BAND HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE \r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT \r\nFROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. CRISTOBAL LOOKS BETTER NOW \r\nTHAN IT DID WHEN THE LAST RECON FLIGHT WAS IN THE SYSTEM...BUT I \r\nHAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT UNTIL THE RECENT \r\nCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BECOMES SUSTAINED. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL KOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/03...AND THAT IS QUITE GENEROUS \r\nBASED ON A 12 HOUR MOTION VECTOR. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE \r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE ACTUALLY MOVING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD...AND SO \r\nIS THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP CONVECTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE \r\nHANDLED THIS SYSTEM POORLY AT BEST AND THERE WILL COME A TIME WHEN \r\nWE MAY HAVE TO BAIL OUT ON THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE WORST MODELS SO \r\nFAR HAVE BEEN THE AVN AND GFDL..IN THAT ORDER. IN 12 HOURS...THE AVN \r\nHAS CRISTOBAL MOVING NORTHEAST AT 23 KT WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY \r\nAT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...I HAVE BAILED ON THE AVN AND GFDL SOLUTIONS \r\nAND HAVE FOLLOWED THE SLOWER UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. INTERESTINGLY \r\nENOUGH...THE BEST MODEL HAS BEEN THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL...WHICH TAKES \r\nTHE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR 24 HOURS AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD \r\nTO NEAR BERMUDA IN 72 HOURS. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE CENTER OF \r\nCRISTOBAL HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE \r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING ONLY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THAT \r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICAL TRACK IS TO THE SOUTH OF AND CONSIDERABLY SLOWER \r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE POSSIBILITY STILL REMAINS THAT \r\nCRISTOBAL COULD BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE DEEP WESTERLIES AND MEANDER \r\nAROUND NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR \r\nREASONING. HOWEVER...12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS \r\nBASED ON 00Z SHIP REPORTS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 29.4N  75.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 30.1N  73.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 31.8N  71.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 34.5N  68.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 39.5N  62.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH CRISTOBAL IS BECOMING INTERMITTENT...AS IT \r\nAPPEARS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL.  \r\nATTEMPTS TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER ARE BEING \r\nSLAPPED AWAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED LARGELY \r\nON A QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nTHE MODELS CRISTO BALL WAS CLEARLY CLOUDY WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND \r\nTIME HAS ABOUT RUN OUT ON THEIR PLANS FOR A QUICK GETAWAY.  WITH \r\nJUST A HINT OF DISCORD AMONGST THE MEMBERS OF THE GUIDANCE \r\nSUITE...IT IS PERHAPS TIME FOR A NEW STRATEGY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY \r\nSHOWS A SECOND PUSH OF DRIER AIR WITHIN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL \r\nTROUGH...BUT THIS PUSH IS ALREADY AT THE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE.  \r\nWHILE THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE AVN AGAIN TAKES CRISTOBAL SMARTLY \r\nNORTHEASTWARD...THERE IS A TRAILING TROUGH THAT ADVANCES ONLY SLOWLY \r\nTO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER AND \r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...ASSUMES THAT CRISTOBAL WILL BE \r\nLEFT BEHIND WITHIN THIS TROUGH IN A RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW.  \r\nTHIS THINKING IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL.  \r\nPERHAPS NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST TRACK IS NOT \r\nHIGH.\r\n\r\nON THE PRESUMED SLOW EASTERLY TRACK...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT THERE \r\nWILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT LESSENING OF THE SHEAR UNTIL LATE IN THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHEN ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR NORTHEASTWARD \r\nACCELERATION ARISES.  AS A RESULT...A STEADY INTENSITY OR SOME \r\nWEAKENING IS MORE LIKELY THROUGH 48 HOURS.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 29.5N  74.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 29.6N  74.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 30.0N  72.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 30.5N  70.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 31.0N  69.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 32.0N  66.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2002\r\n \r\nCRISTOBAL APPEARS ON SATELLITE LIKE A LOW AT THE END OF A COLD \r\nFRONT. THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED BUT APPEARS TO BE STRONG \r\nENOUGH TO KEEP 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL \r\nGIVE A BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE STRUCTURE OF CRISTOBAL LATER TODAY. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEEPING CRISTOBAL AS A 40 KNOT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OR EARLIER. \r\nHOWEVER...SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INSIST ON MAKING CRISTOBAL A \r\nHURRICANE. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A \r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AND THIS STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS \r\nPATTERN SHOULD KEEP CRISTOBAL...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT...ON A \r\nGENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 30.0N  73.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  72.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 31.0N  70.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 31.6N  68.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 33.0N  65.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 38.0N  58.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2002\r\n\r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS RAPIDLY \r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A \r\nFRONTAL ZONE AND THE PRESSURE ROSE TO 1008 MB. THIS ALSO SUPPORTED \r\nBY MICROWAVE DATA WHICH SHOW LINEAR INSTEAD OF CIRCULAR CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE STILL BANDS OF STRONG FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST \r\nOF THE WEAKENING CENTER. \r\n\r\nCRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED \r\nTO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OR ABSORBED \r\nTHE FRONT.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FURTHER \r\nINFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY \r\nTHE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER AT WASHINGTON DC. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 31.5N  71.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  68.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 40.0N  63.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 29 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nIS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.  THE CYCLONE HAS SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER RESULTING IN\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  CURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER.  THIS\r\nWILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN SOME.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD AN AREA OF PERSISTENT AND STRONGER THAN\r\nNORMAL UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL HALT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES ON A MORE WESTERLY\r\nTRACK IT WILL REMAIN IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE A\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS \r\n285/14. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE \r\nWILL PROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE \r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z  9.6N  32.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 10.0N  34.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 10.5N  37.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 11.5N  40.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 12.5N  42.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 14.0N  47.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHE BELL JUST RANG IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...HELLO DOLLY... \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER \r\nORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE SYSTEM HAS WELL DEFINED CURVED BANDS \r\nAND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL \r\nESTABLISHED YET AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED \r\nAS A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...THE FOURTH OF THE 2002 SEASON. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED \r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATER \r\nAND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD BRING STRONG \r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH \r\nIS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nDOLLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 12 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG \r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BUT THE SAME TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING THE SHEAR \r\nWILL ALSO WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...DOLLY SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL \r\nMODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL...WEAKENS THE CYCLONE \r\nQUICKLY AND CREDIT SHOULD BE GIVEN. HOWEVER...FOR NOW LETS WAIT FOR \r\nTHE MODEL NEXT RUN.\r\n\r\nIF DOLLY CONTINUES MORE WESTERLY THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WILL REMAIN \r\nIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NONE OF THE \r\nRELIABLE TRACK MODELS INDICATE SUCH WESTWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z  9.8N  32.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z  9.9N  34.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 10.0N  37.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 10.5N  39.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 11.0N  41.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 12.0N  45.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 29 2002\r\n\r\nDOLLY IS PRESENTING AN INCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE THIS\r\nEVENING WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS IN A LOOSE BAND\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...35 KT FROM TAFB...AND\r\n30 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THESE AND THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE RAISED TO\r\n40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY OF FINDING THE CENTER TONIGHT...WITH\r\nTHE IR-BASED FIXES COMING IN A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND QUIKSCAT\r\nAND SSM/I DATA SUGGESTING AN ELONGATED CENTER A LITTLE FURTHER\r\nNORTH.  THE SYNOPTIC AND ADVISORY POSITIONS SOMEWHAT COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE EXTREMES AND PRODUCE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/11.\r\nDOLLY IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD MORE OR LESS\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND KEEP DOLLY ON A WESTWARD\r\nOR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE HOW STRONG WILL\r\nTHE RIDGE BE IN 48-72 HR AND JUST HOW FAR NORTH WILL DOLLY GO.\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS.  THE FIRST...WHICH INCLUDES\r\nTHE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL...CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SECOND CAMP...WHICH\r\nINCLUDES THE BAM MODELS...NHC98...AND LBAR...CALLS FOR A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAD POOR INITIALIZATIONS OF DOLLY AND THERE\r\nIS NO OBVIOUS SIGN OF ANY TURN YET.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL FOLLOW THE MORE WESTWARD MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nNHC98 AND CLIPER. \r\n \r\nDOLLY IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND SHOWS FAIR TO\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT EASTWARD.  THERE IS NO\r\nOBVIOUS REASON FOR IT NOT TO STRENGTHEN IN THE SHORT TERM...AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  IN THE LONG TERM...ALL \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nLESSER ANTILLES BY 72 HR AND DEVELOP UNFAVORABLE WESTERLIES NORTH\r\nOF 15N-17N. SHOULD DOLLY VEER MORE NORTHWARD...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER\r\nTHESE WINDS...WHICH WOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLY WEAKEN\r\nTHE STORM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD BE\r\nTHROUGH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...\r\nTAKING DOLLY TO JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-72 HR.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR TO BE 10 KT\r\nOR LESS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR.  SHOULD THIS\r\nVERIFY...DOLLY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z  9.7N  33.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z  9.7N  35.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 10.0N  38.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 10.5N  40.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 11.1N  42.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 12.5N  47.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE OVERALL \r\nCLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD AND THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS \r\nSPLIT.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE STORM \r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  WHILE THE GFS OR AVIATION MODEL...THE DEEP BAM \r\nMODEL...AND THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOW A 280 DEGREES \r\nHEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE 00Z GFS MODEL SHOWS A DEEP-LAYER MEAN\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC SOUTH OF ABOUT 15 DEG \r\nNORTH FOR 72 HOURS...SO IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK GOES ALONG WITH THIS AS DID THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A DISTORTION TO THE CLOUD PATTERN ON THE WEST SIDE OF \r\nDOLLY.  BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE RATHER COLD AND \r\nPERSISTENT CDO FEATURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT FROM AFWA AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS \r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT.  IF THE FORECAST TRACK IS CORRECT...THE STORM \r\nSHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 65 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS WHICH IS NOT QUITE AS \r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z  9.8N  34.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 10.0N  36.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 10.5N  39.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 11.0N  41.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 11.6N  43.8W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 12.7N  47.2W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nDOLLY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  IT HAS THE CENTER\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.  BECAUSE\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM AND DOLLY IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\n...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SHIPS MODEL\r\nBRINGS DOLLY TO 88 KNOTS IN 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO DEVELOP A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ATLANTIC BRINGING\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS NEAR THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS COULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 \r\nDEGREES A LITTLE BIT FASTER...ABOUT 14 KNOTS. DOLLY IS CURRENTLY \r\nSOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS INDICATED BY THE \r\nSTEERING MOTION PRODUCTS PROVIDED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN \r\nCIMSS. HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THIS RIDGE WILL \r\nPERSIST. IF GLOBAL MODELS ARE CORRECT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL \r\nWEAKEN CAUSING DOLLY TO TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A COUPLE OF \r\nDAYS. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS TAKE DOLLY ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. \r\nIT IS TEMPTING TO GO WITH THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND TURN THE \r\nCYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. BUT FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nKEEPS DOLLY ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH DECREASING \r\nFORWARD SPEED. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 10.4N  37.2W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 10.6N  39.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 11.0N  42.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 11.8N  44.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N  47.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N  50.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nAFTER A FEW HOURS OF BLOSSOMING IN THE MORNING HOURS...\r\nUNEXPECTEDLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE IMAGES BEGAN TO BECOME\r\nELONGATED AND CONVECTION TO DECREASE.  LOW CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM.  THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND\r\nMAY BE EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  IF THIS\r\nIS CONFIRMED...THE INITIAL POSITION WILL HAVE TO BE RELOCATED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY LOWERED EVEN FURTHER.  I DO NOT HAVE AN\r\nEXPLANATION FOR THE WEAKENING SINCE THE SHEAR IS VERY LOW AND THE\r\nOCEAN IS WARM.  IT MAY BE JUST DIURNAL OR IT IS THE WEAKENING THAT\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS AND THIS ESTIMATE IS\r\nGENEROUS.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE...THE IR CLOUD\r\nPATTERN REMAINS GOOD WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW.  THEREFORE\r\n...INTENSIFICATION IS STILL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT\r\n16 KNOTS AND AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.\r\nMODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE ONES\r\nFORECASTING A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...WELL EAST OF\r\nTHE ANTILLES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 10.6N  38.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 11.0N  41.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 12.0N  44.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 12.7N  46.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N  48.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 14.5N  50.9W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n\r\nDESPITE A LACK OF OBVIOUS SHEAR AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DOLLY COLLAPSED FOR A TIME LATE \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  THE PRIME SUSPECT AT THE MOMENT IS DRY AIR WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2055Z \r\nSHOWED A COMPLETELY EXPOSED CENTER...AND A LATER OVERPASS AT 2339Z \r\nSHOWED THE CENTER TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST OF THE NEW BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE SSM/I DATA INDICATES THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH AND EAST\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/15.  DOLLY REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE...BUT IS HEADED FOR A PORTION OF THE RIDGE THAT LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN STARTING IN 36-48 HR.  GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD.  THE AVN...WHICH\r\nSHOWS A POORLY DEVELOPED SYSTEM...CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION WHILE THE UKMET...WHICH MAINTAINS OR DEVELOPS DOLLY...TURNS\r\nTHE STORM ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR.  THE BAMD IS TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF EVEN THE UKMET...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN\r\nTHE AVN AND UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN PARTIAL CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND ON THE PREMISE THAT DOLLY WILL NOT GET AS DEEP AND\r\nSTRONG AS INDICATED IN THE UKMET.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nMAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT IN LATER PACKAGES IF DOLLY\r\nSTRENGTHENS MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...OR IF THE GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO CALL FOR AS MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AS\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW CENTER THAT WAS OVER THE STORM EARLIER HAS MOVED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nLESS FAVORABLE THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS \r\nTRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK...AND AS LONG AS THERE IS CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THERE IS A CHANCE\r\nDOLLY CAN STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE\r\nPREMISE THAT THE CURRENT ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS TEMPORARY...AND\r\nTHAT THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AFTER 12 HR.  THIS\r\nINTENSIFICATION WOULD LAST UNTIL ABOUT 48 HR WHEN DOLLY WOULD MOVE\r\nINTO SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR.  AN ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO\r\nIS THAT DOLLY DOES NOT RECOVER FROM THE CONVECTIVE COLLAPSE AND\r\nWEAKENS FROM THIS POINT ON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 11.8N  39.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 12.6N  42.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 13.6N  44.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 14.6N  47.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 15.6N  49.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N  52.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/17.  THE EAST/WEST RIDGE LOCATED\r\nNORTH OF DOLLY HAS A WEAKNESS NEAR 60 DEG WEST LONGITUDE.  THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL TURN THE STORM NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEAKNESS.\r\nONLY THE AVIATION MODEL STAYS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY DUE TO ITS POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT\r\n36 TO 72 HOURS...BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT THERE WAS ANOTHER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nDISSIPATING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40 KT.  WITH WARM SSTS AND\r\nLITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DOLLY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AGAIN.  BUT DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AT 48 TO 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD THEN LIMIT FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 55 KT IN 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 12.4N  41.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 13.2N  43.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 14.2N  46.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 15.5N  48.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N  50.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N  52.0W    55 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nDOLLY IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY THE DVORAK \r\nT-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE \r\nSHAPELESS AND THE EXCELLENT OUFTLOW OBSERVED YESTERDAY IS NO LONGER \r\nPRESENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE \r\nCIRCULATION AND GIVEN THE SMALL SHEAR AND WARM WATER...SOME \r\nSTRENGHTENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME HIGHLY \r\nUNFAVORBLE AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. \r\n\r\nDOLLY IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGRESS AT 17 KNOTS. THE \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH  \r\nIS REPLACED BY A TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A TURN MORE TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF \r\nTHE MODELS. ONLY THE AVN KEEPS DOLLY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  AT \r\nTHIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nTRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 13.1N  43.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.0N  46.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 15.5N  48.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N  49.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N  51.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  53.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SHAPELESS BUT IT IS STILL EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY FEATURE THAT\r\nPROLONGS THE LIFE OF DOLLY.  ESTIMATED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS MISSED ALL THE OPORTUNITIES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT\r\nWAS AT LOW LATITUDES...IN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS.  IT\r\nIS NOW BASICALLY TOO LATE FOR STRENGHTENING SINCE THE SYSTEM IS\r\nMOVING VERY FAST TOWARD HIGHER SHEAR.  DOLLY IS BEING KEPT AT 35 \r\nKNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WEAKENING MAY ALSO OCCUR.  \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL \r\nREDEVELOPS DOLLY AT THE LONG RANGE...MORE THAN 5 DAYS...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS BEGIN TO MOVE MOVE NORTHEAST WARD AT HIGHER\r\nLATITUDES.  THE UK MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM MUCH EARLIER ONCE\r\nTHE NORTHWARD TURN BEGINS.  IT IS HARD TO SEE SUCH INTENSIFICATION\r\nWITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FORECAST FOR THE AREA.\r\n\r\nDOLLY IS RACING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AS INDICATED BY\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS.  ONLY CLIMATOLOGY MAINTAINS THE WESTNORTHWEST\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 13.4N  45.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N  48.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.0N  51.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N  52.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N  53.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  54.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n\r\nDOLLY HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...MAINTAINING\r\nAN OVERALL LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION\r\nTO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 285/19.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  DOLLY IS SOUTH\r\nOF AN LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS LARGE-SCALE\r\nTROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY CURVE MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME.  THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER AND NHC90UK...WHICH ARE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OUTLIERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL\r\nFOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN WITH TIME.  DUE MAINLY TO THE \r\nCONTINUED QUICK MOTION AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT A WEAK SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM MAY NOT TURN AS QUICKLY NORTHWARD...THE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDOLLY IS APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...THE BEGINNING\r\nOF INCREASED SHEAR FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SEVERAL DAYS\r\nAGO.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL NOTES THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT\r\nSTILL CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL...THE OTHER EXTREME...\r\nDISSIPATES DOLLY IN 12 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nDOLLY TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL STORM SINCE THERE ARE NOT YET ANY\r\nINTERNAL SIGNS THAT IT IS DISSIPATING AND SINCE A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nTRACK MIGHT REDUCE THE IMPACT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.\r\nHOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE DOLLY DISSIPATE DUE TO\r\nSHEAR BEFORE 72 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 13.8N  47.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.7N  50.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 16.0N  52.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N  54.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 19.1N  55.3W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N  56.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nDOLLY RETAINS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS ELONGATED\r\nNORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z SHOWED AN OPEN\r\nWAVE...BUT A RECENT TRMM PASS SUGGESTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY.  DOLLY IS APPROACHING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF THIS SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR\r\nVERY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 40 KT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS FROM A\r\nPRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 14.3N  49.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 15.1N  51.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 16.8N  53.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.3N  54.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.8N  54.9W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 22.0N  55.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THERE \r\nIS A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM \r\nALL THREE AGENCIES.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 \r\nKT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE EAST BUT ONLY FAIR TO \r\nTHE WEST AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE MID- TO \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE \r\nLESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DOLLY NORTHWESTWARD BY \r\n24 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS \r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS \r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE AVN AND AVN ENSEMBLE \r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS \r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT THE \r\nCYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE \r\nMORE NORTHWARD WHICH WILL HELP TO LESSEN THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT AND \r\nPOSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS  BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL \r\nFORECAST...WHICH BRINGS DOLLY TO 60 KT IN 72 HOURS IN SPITE OF THE \r\n20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 15.2N  50.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 16.2N  52.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 17.8N  54.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N  54.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.7N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 22.5N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND \r\nOF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT \r\nFROM SAB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE STRONG \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS \r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DOLLY NORTHWARD BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND \r\nSIMILAR TO THE AVN ENSEMBLE AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS \r\nUNTIL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT \r\nTHE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS  \r\nBELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS DOLLY TO 62 \r\nKT IN 72 HOURS IN SPITE OF THE 25 TO 30 KT VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED \r\nTO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 16.1N  51.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.2N  53.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N  54.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 20.2N  55.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.5N  55.3W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N  55.2W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nEARLIER THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...NOW IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS STILL STRUGGLING AND TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nDOLLY CONTINUES TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/10.  THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE\r\nSTRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES IS GRADUALLY TURNING DOLLY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS ALONG THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nUNTIL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT\r\nTHE CYCLONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AFTER THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 16.7N  52.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 17.7N  53.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N  53.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.8N  53.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 22.2N  54.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N  54.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT SINCE\r\nANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER AFTER\r\nTHE ESTIMATES WERE DONE.\r\n\r\nDOLLY CONTINUES TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/09.  THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE\r\nSTRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES IS GRADUALLY TURNING DOLLY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS ALONG THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS AN \r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nUNTIL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT\r\nTHE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 17.4N  52.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.4N  53.3W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N  53.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 21.4N  54.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 22.7N  53.9W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 24.5N  54.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE DATA ALONG WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nINDICATES THE CENTER OF DOLLY HAS MOVED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION... \r\nALBEIT JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOPS. SHIP \r\nLAXP4 AT 02/12Z REPORTED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT WHEN IT WAS \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 50 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THIS REPORT \r\nWAS USED TO KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER WEST. THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE \r\nOF 45 KT ...T3.0...FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD... \r\nESPECIALLY TO THE EAST...DESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/10. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE \r\nSATELLITE WIND DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS ERODED AND DOLLY HAS BEGUN TO MAKE THE TURN \r\nTO THE NORTH. THE NHC MODEL SUITE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A \r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH A TURN TO THE \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET \r\nMODELS. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF ALL THE NHC MODELS...ESPECIALLY \r\nBY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS SCENARIO WAS IGNORED GIVEN THE RATHER ROBUST \r\nINTENSITY AND DEEP VERTICAL CIRCULATION FORECAST BY THE MODEL.\r\n \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...BUT MAINLY AFTER 48 \r\nHOURS WHEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE WEST OF \r\nDOLLY AMPLIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INCREASED RIDGING TO THE EAST OF \r\nTROUGH WILL PLACE DOLLY UNDER WEAKER SHEAR...LESS THAN 10-15 KT... \r\nAND ALSO UNDER INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL A \r\nLITTLE BELOW SHIPS AND WELL BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST OF 102 KT IN 72 \r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 18.5N  53.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N  53.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  53.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 24.0N  53.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 25.9N  53.6W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  53.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nDOLLY WAS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE LOOKING RIGHT UP UNTIL ABOUT 1800Z AND \r\nALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES REPORTED AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 \r\nKT...OR T3.0.  HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS \r\nMOVED OUT FROM UNDER THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND HAS \r\nBECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS \r\nDECREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07.  NOW THAT THE VERTICAL \r\nCIRCULATION HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AND WEAKENED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION...DOLLY WILL BE STEERED MORE \r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND \r\nEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE FUTURE TRACK WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON \r\nWHETHER OR NOT DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER. GIVEN THE STRONG DRY AIR INTRUSION...THE RE-DEVLOPMENT OF \r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WAIT UNTIL LATER TONIGHT... \r\nABOUT 12 HOURS...DURING THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. AS SUCH...THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK AND NEAR THE FAR LEFT OR WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE \r\nENVELOPE.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL AGREES ON \r\nTAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD BY 12 TO 24 HOURS...BUT THAT MAY BE \r\nDELAYED IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP TO DEEPEN THE CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nTHERE MAY BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60 \r\nHOURS AS INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...I AM FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO BELIEVE \r\nTHAT DOLLY WILL STRENGTHEN 62 KT IN 72 HOURS LIKE THE SHIPS MODEL IS \r\nINDICATING IN THE FACE OF 25 TO 30 KT UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...AND \r\nCERTAINLY NO WHERE CLOSE TO THE 106 KT THAT THE GFDL IS FORECASTING. \r\nBY 72 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING \r\nEAST OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS DOLLY...\r\nASSUMING OF COURSE THAT DOLLY SURVIVES THE SHEAR AND IS STILL AN \r\nIDENTIFIABLE ENTITY BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 18.8N  53.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 20.1N  53.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 21.9N  54.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 23.9N  54.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  54.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  54.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nNIGHT TIME INFRARED ENHANCEMENTS AND THE LATEST SSMI SCAN INDICATE \r\nTHAT DOLLYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO \r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THUS...THE SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nSHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nARE 45 KTS AND 35 KTS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST \r\nQUIKSCAT WIND ESTIMATES GIVE VALUES OF 30 KTS NEAR AND TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND 40 TO 45 KTS IN A SMALL AREA SEVERAL \r\nDEGREES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED UPON THIS...THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KTS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...AS THE MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN INDICATING....AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n340/08.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS PACKED NEAR 54 TO 55\r\nDEGREES WEST LONGITUDE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT DIVERGES\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60\r\nHOURS AS INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BY 72 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN AS RIDGING EAST OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD ACROSS DOLLY.  THIS IS ASSUMING THAT DOLLY SURVIVES THE SHEAR\r\nAND IS STILL AN IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 19.7N  53.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.9N  53.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 22.5N  54.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N  54.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 26.1N  54.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 30.9N  53.7W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE AS DOLLY MOVES TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST.  NIGHT TIME INFRARED ENHANCEMENTS AND THE LATEST\r\nSSMI SCAN INDICATE THAT DOLLYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL\r\nEXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/08.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE REMAINS PACKED NEAR 54 TO 55 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE FOR ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT DIVERGES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60\r\nHOURS AS THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BY 72 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN AS RIDGING EAST OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD ACROSS DOLLY.  THIS IS ASSUMING THAT DOLLY SURVIVES THE SHEAR\r\nAND IS STILL AN IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 20.1N  54.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 21.2N  54.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 22.8N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 24.3N  55.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 26.0N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 30.0N  54.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES APPEAR TO SHOW THAT DOLLY IS LOCATED A \r\nLITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THIS IS A \r\nREFORMATION UNDER THE CONVECTION AND NOT A MOTION TO THE EAST. IF \r\nTHIS IS CONFIRMED WITH LATTER PICTURES...DOLLY WILL STILL BE A 45 \r\nKNOT TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER IS FARTHER TO THE \r\nWEST...IT WOULD BE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\nDOLLY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY \r\nTHE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW. \r\nTHIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL.  THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN \r\nINTENSITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BOTH SHIPS AND \r\nTHE GFDL MODELS INSIST ON STRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 21.5N  53.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 22.8N  53.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N  53.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  53.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  52.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  51.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nIF THERE IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT HAS TO BE VERY SMALL AND \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO THE \r\nANALYSIS PROVIDED BY THE TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE METEOROLOGISTS WHO \r\nPLACED THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE CONVECTION. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE DETERIORATED \r\nCLOUD PATTERN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 40 KNOTS. BOTH \r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS INSIST ON RESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE AS \r\nTHE SHEAR RELAXES. THIS SCENARIO IS DOUBTFUL AND THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECASTS GENEROUSLY KEEPS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE THOROUGH 72 \r\nHOURS. DOLLY COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE POSSIBLE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION WAS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS DOLLY...IF IT SURVIVES...ON A GENERAL NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nBETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 23.1N  52.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 25.0N  51.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  51.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  51.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 37.5N  47.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A VERY GENEROUS 45 KT BASED ON \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND \r\n55 KT FROM SAB. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING PAST 3 HOURS \r\nINDICATES THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS \r\nBECOME EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. \r\nBUT RATHER THAN YOYO-ING THE INTENSITY UP AND DOWN...I HAVE OPTED \r\nINSTEAD TO MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY SINCE DOLLY IS PREPARING \r\nTO GO THROUGH THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD AND THERE COULD \r\nBE ANOTHER FLARE UP OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...IF \r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL CERTAINLY \r\nBE LOWERED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR \r\nWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AMONG THE \r\nAVN...GFDL...NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS. ONLY THE UKMET HAS REMAINED \r\nCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS. THERE IS ALSO \r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC MODEL SUITE AFTER 48 HOURS...WITH \r\nTHE AVN BEING THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST LEFT OF ALL THE MODELS. IT \r\nTAKES DOLLY TO SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND IN 72 HOURS AND IS JUST A \r\nLITTLE WEST OF THE GFDN AND GFDL POSITIONS FOR THE SAME TIME.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED WEST OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR WEST OR AS FAST AS THE AVN MODEL. \r\nTHE AVN 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS MUCH SLOWER AND FARTHER \r\nEAST THAN THE AVN...AND THIS SCENARIO WAS FOLLOWED SINCE IT IS \r\nSIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHERE WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE \r\nNEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS \r\nFORECAST SINCE DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 TO 25 KT \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. AFTER 48 HOURS AND ESPECIALLY BY \r\n72 HOURS...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO \r\nTHE EAST OF A DIGGING AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS \r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN SOME AND MAY PERMIT DOLLY TO \r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE OVER 26C SSTS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING DOLLY TO 76 KT AND 104 KT... \r\nRESPECTIVELY...BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 23.6N  52.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 25.1N  52.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N  52.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 30.1N  51.8W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  48.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW A VERY GENEROUS 35 KT BASED ON A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE \r\nAGENCIES. DOLLY HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED \r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION AND BANDING FETAURES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION \r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE AVN \r\nREMAINS THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST WEST OF ALL THE MODELS...WHILE THE \r\nGFDL HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK TO THE \r\nEAST...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. THE \r\nMAIN CONCERN IS THE FORWARD SPEED EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND WHETHER \r\nDOLLY EVEN EXISTS AFTER 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS SYSTEM \r\nIN THE FACE OF SUCH STRONG SHEAR IN THE PAST...I HAVE DECIDED TO \r\nHOLD ONTO THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF DOLLY MOVES \r\nSLOWER THAN THE AVN MODEL IS INDICATING...THEN THE SYSTEM WILL GET \r\nPICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MUCH LATER AND MOVE \r\nMORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST RATHER THAN FASTER TO THE NORTH LIKE \r\nTHE AVN IS FORECASTING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ALBEIT SLOWER THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND IS \r\nSIMILAR TO THE UKMET-GFDL-NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS \r\nDUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...DOLLY MAY \r\nNOT EVEN SURVIVE THE DAY IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ASSUMING DOLLY DOES \r\nSURVIVE...BY 48 HOURS UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME LESS \r\nHOSTILE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES UNDER AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE EAST \r\nOF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL \r\nTHE MODELS TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD HELP \r\nTO DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO \r\nOCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS WELL BELOW \r\nTHE THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING DOLLY TO 66 KT AND 94 \r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 23.8N  52.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 25.5N  52.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 28.1N  52.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  51.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 34.0N  50.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 42.0N  47.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolly","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nA STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVED EASTWARD OVER DOLLY AND\r\nREMOVED THE CONVECTION.  DOLLY IS NOW A DISSIPATING SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS WITH 25-KNOT WINDS.  THIS WEAKENING PROCESS HAS OCURRED\r\nRAPIDLY.  A REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON DOLLY.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 23.8N  53.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 26.0N  53.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  51.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG WITH SURFACE... \r\nRADAR...AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL \r\nDISTURBANCE EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST HAS DEVELOPED INTO \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. RECON FOUND 850 MB WINDS OF 35 KT AT \r\nAROUND 1900Z AND THE MELBOURNE DOPPLER RADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN \r\nINDICATING 36 TO 40 KT WINDS BETWEEN 10000 AND 13000 FT. RECON ALSO \r\nFOUND A RATHER BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF \r\nONLY 1014 MB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nSET TO 30 KT. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE EAST BUT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO \r\nTHE WEST DUE TO WEAK UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT \r\nDIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS WITH THE PATTERN BEING MORE \r\nREPRESENTATIVE OF A SQUASHED SPIDER. THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM \r\nMODELS AND THE LBAR MODEL TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND NEAR ST. \r\nAUGUSTINE FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE \r\nMODELS ARE SPREAD ALL ABOUT THE COMPASS. 01/12Z UPPER-AIR DATA \r\nINDICATES THE SURFACE TO 700 MB SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION EXTENDS WESTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...WHILE A BREAK \r\nIN THE RIDGE EXISTS FROM 500 MB ON UP. THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY \r\nERODE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AND TAKE THE SMALL DEPRESSION SLOWLY \r\nNORTHWARD AFTER 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN IT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP \r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT PUSH SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE U.S. \r\nEAST COAST BY 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\n...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORWARD SPEED SLOW AND MOVE THE \r\nCYCLONE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD SIMILAR TO THE AVN MODEL...BUT \r\nFARTHER WEST THAN THE GFDL MODEL. HOWEVER...SINCE STEERING CURRENTS \r\nARE WEAK...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. THIS TRACK UNCERTAINTY \r\nHAS ALSO PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE \r\nCOASTAL AREAS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED AFTER 24 \r\nHOURS...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 24 HOURS AND \r\n59 KT BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WAS \r\nHELD LOWER THAN SHIPS GIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 25 KT WITH PROBABLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AFTER 24 \r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 29.0N  79.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 29.3N  80.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.0N  80.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 30.6N  80.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 31.7N  80.6W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 32.5N  79.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION FOUND A DISTORTED \r\nCIRCULATION AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A BIT BUT THE \r\nHIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...34 KT...WERE ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE \r\nEARLIER MISSION.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION IS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...INDICATIVE OF SOME \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  NONETHELESS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS \r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE QUESTIONABLE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE \r\nCONSERVATIVE THAN SHIPS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIX...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO \r\nTHE NORTH.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5.  NUMERICAL \r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY \r\nAPPROACHING THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PICK UP THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD LEAVE THE SYSTEM IN WEAK STEERING \r\nCURRENTS SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS SLOW MOVEMENT NEAR THE \r\nSOUTHEAST COAST DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST...AND MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERSE \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 29.7N  79.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.2N  79.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.6N  80.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 31.2N  80.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 31.7N  80.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 32.5N  79.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 47 KT WINDS\r\nAT 1500 FT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A 1007 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE.  ON THIS BASIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD.  THEY CYCLONE IS STILL POORLY\r\nORGANIZED...WITH WESTERLY SHEAR PUSHING THE MAIN CONVECTION\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED CENTER.  \r\nADDITIONALLY...AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THE CIRCULATION\r\nIS STILL DISTORTED...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST FROM THE CENTER\r\nTO THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN ST. AUGUSTINE AND DAYTONA BEACH.\r\n\r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE AND MELBOURNE SUGGEST THE CENTER\r\nIS MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION 320/5.  EDOUARD IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS...WITH LIGHT LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT\r\nTO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THIS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nAS EDOUARD REMAINS SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES AND\r\nBETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS\r\nTO THIS BY TAKING EDOUARD MANY DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AT SLOW\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THE SLOW SPEED...CALLING\r\nFOR EDOUARD TO MAKE A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD CURVE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU. S. COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND\r\nANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER\r\nINLAND.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE IS WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS TO BE LIGHT\r\nENOUGH THAT EDOUARD CAN STRENGTHEN FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME\r\nNORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE.  THE AVN SHOWS THE MOST FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...WITH 15-30 KT WINDS...WHILE THE ETA AND UKMET SHOW\r\nEXTREMELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS WITH 40-55 KT WINDS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING TO STOP AT 36 HR DUE TO THE\r\nINCREASED SHEAR.  HOWEVER...IF THE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nFORECASTS VERIFY...EDOUARD MAY WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR INSTEAD OF\r\nMAINTAINING ITSELF.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 30.2N  79.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 30.7N  80.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 31.1N  80.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 31.6N  80.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  80.4W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 32.5N  79.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nMOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN \r\nLITTLE CHANGE WITH EDOUARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE PRESSURE HOLDING \r\nSTEADY AT 1007 MB AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 45 KT.  THE \r\nCENTER WAS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION UNTIL A RECENT \r\nBURST OBSCURED IT.  \r\n\r\nTHE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS HAS BEEN NORTHWARD...BUT \r\nEAST OF NORTH MORE RECENTLY.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nCYCLONE IS PASSING THE SYSTEM BY...AND SHOULD LEAVE EDOUARD IN A \r\nVERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS \r\nHEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...EDOUARD IS LIKELY TO \r\nRESPOND BY DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST.  THERE IS A CLUSTERING OF \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...LED BY THE AVN AND GFDL...TAKING THE SYSTEM \r\nULTIMATELY INLAND IN NORTH FLORIDA OR SOUTH GEORGIA.  THE TIMING OF \r\nTHIS WESTWARD TURN IS UNCERTAIN...BUT FORECASTS OF THE MID-LEVEL \r\nFLOW FROM THE AVN AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT NOT MORE THAN 12 TO 24 \r\nHOURS OF NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WITH MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...IS NOT \r\nFAVORABLE.  IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO \r\nABATE MUCH...EVEN AFTER THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS...THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO BE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE \r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL DO EDOUARD IN ENTIRELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 30.5N  79.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 30.9N  79.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 31.2N  79.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 31.3N  79.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 31.3N  80.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 31.0N  80.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nNOT MUCH HAS CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRUCTURE OF EDOUARD.  \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION DUE TO SOLID WESTERLY SHEAR.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE \r\nREPORTED 850 MB WINDS OF 45 KT.  THESE DATA...ALONG WITH DROPSONDE \r\nAND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 35 KT.\r\n\r\nEDOUARD HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO \r\nCONVECTIVE FORCING AS APPEARED TO OCCUR IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR \r\nPATTERN WITH CRISTOBAL.  A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PASSING \r\nTHE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE.  BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE TROUGH \r\nARE EXPECTED TO TURN EDOUARD BACK TO THE WEST.  WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN \r\nIS WHETHER IT WILL LOOP NORTHWARD...CLOSER THE THE SC/GA COAST...OR \r\nSOUTHWARD...ENHANCING THE THREAT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THE SOUTHERLY \r\nROUTE IS MORE LIKELY IF THE CENTER CAN REMAIN COUPLED WITH THE \r\nCONVECTION...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MORE LIKELY TO TAKE THE \r\nNORTHERN ROUTE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL FAVORS THE \r\nNORTHERN OPTION.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY \r\nINTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS LESS SO IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A \r\nMORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  THE GFDL FORECAST OF A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 \r\nHOURS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCEPT.  GIVEN THE SHEAR...EVEN THE SHIPS \r\nFORECAST...WHICH BRINGS EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN \r\n72 HOURS...SEEMS A BIT HIGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 30.5N  78.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  78.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 30.9N  78.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 31.0N  79.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 30.7N  80.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR/OVER THE\r\nLOW-CLOUD CENTER.  HOWEVER THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nRATHER RAGGED-LOOKING.  INTERESTINGLY...THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT FIX WAS FARTHER EAST AND MORE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THAN IS SUGGESTED BY THE LOW CLOUD LINES...WHICH ARE\r\nDISCERNIBLE ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH CLOUDS RACING\r\nEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE IT IS\r\nENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...CENTER IS\r\nDISPLACED AT LEAST A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF A DEGREE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE\r\nRELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND IS\r\nBELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY.  HOWEVER IF\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES INCREASE A LITTLE MORE...EDOUARD MAY\r\nWEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH EDUOARD HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD...IT NOW APPEARS TO BE\r\nSTALLED.  ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST\r\nU.S. COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER A SMALL AND NARROW MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND EDOUARD.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW FAVORING A TURN BACK\r\nALONG A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER NHC FORECASTS.\r\nTHEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 30.5N  78.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 30.5N  78.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 30.8N  78.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 30.8N  79.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 30.3N  80.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 29.5N  81.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n\r\nEDOUARD IS SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER DEPLOYED A DROPSONDE AT THE 850 MB CENTER...ONLY\r\nTO FIND WINDS 180 DEG 30 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THIS INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TILTED THE VORTEX EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.\r\nDESPITE THE SHEAR...THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES THE CENTRAL \r\nPRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1003 MB.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL\r\nREMAIN 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nEDOUARD MAY HAVE NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL THE MOTION ANYTHING\r\nOTHER THAN STATIONARY.  WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES\r\nOF WESTERLY TROUGHS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF EDOUARD...NONE OF\r\nTHEM ARE REACHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PICK UP THE STORM FROM ITS\r\nPOSITION IN A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC...\r\nWITH HEIGHTS AND PRESSURES GRADUALLY RISING OVER THE EASTERN\r\nU. S. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nRESPONDING TO THIS...WITH MOST MODELS CONVERGING ON A SLOW\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING THE CENTER\r\nINLAND IN 48-72 HR.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nIS TO ELIMINATE THE SMALL NORTHWARD TURN THAT WAS FORECAST BEFORE\r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGAN.\r\n \r\nTHE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADING THE \r\nCENTER...WHILE RAWINSONDES FROM JACKSONVILLE INDICATE 30-40 KT\r\n200 MB FLOW BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...WITH THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 50-60 KT BY 36-48 HR.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THOUGH THAT THE UKMET...WHICH LAST NIGHT WAS ONE OF THE\r\nMODELS  FORECASTING STRONG FLOW...IS NOW FORECASTING MUCH WEAKER\r\nFLOW OF A STRENGTH THAT WOULD PROBABLY LET EDOUARD SURVIVE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nBEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANCE THAT EDOUARD COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING\r\nFLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 30.3N  78.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 30.3N  78.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 30.2N  79.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 29.7N  80.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nIN SPITE OF CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR...EDOUARD HAS BEEN MAINTAINING \r\nVIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE \r\nUNIT RECON AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1000 FT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55 \r\nTO 60 KT.  THEY ALSO FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 71 KT.  THE \r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 1002 BUT HAS SINCE INCHED UP.  BASED ON \r\nTHE RECON REPORTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE ADVISORY MOTION IS NOMINALLY STATIONARY...BUT THE MOST RECENT \r\nFIX WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE \r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT EDOUARD IS BEGINNING TO MOVE.  WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAT IS EXPECTED \r\nTO TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY EDOUARD WILL \r\nGET TO THE COAST.  THE 06Z AVN SEEMED TO HAVE TROUBLE HANGING ON TO \r\nTHE VORTEX AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.  LANDFALL TIMINGS VARY FROM \r\nABOUT 36 HOURS WITH THE GFDL TO 72 WITH THE UKMET.  RIGHT NOW THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THIS \r\nMIGHT HAVE TO BE MOVED UP IF A DEFINITIVE MOTION TREND IS CONFIRMED.\r\n\r\nTHE STRONG WINDS FOUND BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING WERE A \r\nSURPRISE.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN THINNING OUT OVER THE \r\nLAST FEW HOURS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR BEING INGESTED \r\nINTO THE CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE...THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY THINKING \r\nIS THAT THE CONVECTIVE VIGOR...AND THE WINDS...WILL DECREASE.  \r\nLONGER-TERM...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW THE SHEAR PATTERN EVOLVES \r\nOVER EDOUARD.  THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE GUIDANCE ON THIS \r\nSCORE...WITH THE ETA SHOWING 50 KT NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE \r\nIN 36 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT.  THE AVN IS IN \r\nBETWEEN.  SO THE POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY IS THERE FOR EDOUARD TO \r\nMAINTAIN ITSELF OR STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 30.3N  78.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 30.2N  78.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 30.0N  79.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 29.8N  80.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 29.2N  81.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  82.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nDRY AIR AND SHEAR PUT AN END TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF EDOUARD.\r\nEACH SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS MEASURED LESS WIND.  A NOAA RESEARCH\r\nAIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY IN THE CYCLONE...AND HAS FOUND NO FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KT.  ONE CAN ARGUE THAT THE STRONG WINDS FOUND\r\nTHIS MORNING WERE MESOSCALE...RATHER THAN CYCLONE SCALE...BUT IN ANY\r\nEVENT THEY ARE NOT THERE ANY MORE.  THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME ABOUT 50 N\r\nMI TO THE EAST.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nEDOUARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT 240/5...ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW IMAGES \r\nSUGGEST A SLOWER MOTION.  THE PREDOMINANTLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS \r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS CONSIDERABLY QUICKER TO THE COAST THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM \r\nGUIDANCE.  INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET TURNS THE SYSTEM AROUND BEFORE \r\nREACHING THE COAST.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO DEPRESSION STATUS BEFORE \r\nLANDFALL...GIVEN THAT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SURROUND THE CYCLONE \r\nAND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 29.8N  79.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 29.6N  80.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 29.3N  81.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.8N  82.4W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  83.5W    30 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 28.5N  85.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES AS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW\r\nPATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.  STRONG AND\r\nPERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT EDOUARD.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SURVEYING\r\nEDOUARD SHOWED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR INTRUDING INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION AS WELL.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS\r\nBARELY ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 1500 FT.  EDOUARD CONTINUES TO\r\nWEAKEN AND...BARRING AN UNEXPECTED COMEBACK...IT SHOULD BE REDUCED\r\nTO A DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY.  CURIOUSLY THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nACKNOWLEDGES THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR IN THE FORECAST BUT STILL\r\nSTRENGTHENS EDOUARD.  AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE.  HOWEVER THERE\r\nIS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 48 AND 72 H FORECAST POSITIONS\r\nAND INTENSITIES.\r\n \r\nAFTER BEGINNING OF WHAT SEEMED TO BE A DETERMINED MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST EARLIER TODAY...EDOUARD STALLED.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE MOVEMENT SINCE.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION\r\nSHOWED A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A RIDGE TO PUSH\r\nTHE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL TRACK MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL IS AN OUTLIER...AND LOOPS EDOUARD AWAY\r\nFROM FLORIDA AND OUT TO SEA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 29.7N  79.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 29.3N  80.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 28.9N  81.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 28.6N  82.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 28.5N  83.4W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  85.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nEDOUARD IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE IN THE FACE OF 50 KT SHEAR.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM JACKSONVILLE\r\nAND MELBOURNE INDICATED THAT THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO BURSTS\r\nMAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.  A RECON FIX JUST BEFORE 06Z SHOWED\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB.  BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nEDOUARD REMAINS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nEDOUARD IS MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS WITH AN EARLIER ZIG TO\r\nTHE SOUTH FOLLOWED BY A CURRENT ZAG TO THE WEST.  SMOOTHING\r\nTHE STARTS...STOPS...AND ZIG-ZAGS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n255/3.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT HEIGHTS WILL RISE\r\nJUST ENOUGH TO THE NORTH OF EDOUARD TO KEEP IT ON A SLOW\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS...ALTHOUGH THE UKMET WANTS TO STALL THE CYCLONE OVER FLORIDA\r\nWHILE THE BAMD AND NHC98 MOVE IT SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nWITH 50 KT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 200 MB AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDRY AIR...EDOUARD SHOULD WEAKEN IF NOT DIE COMPLETELY.  HOWEVER...AS\r\nLONG AS THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING CONVECTIVE BURSTS...THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE FOR A STRENGTHENING EPISODE SIMILAR TO THE ONE YESTERDAY \r\nMORNING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING...\r\nWITH EDOUARD BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\nSHOULD THE CYCLONE SURVIVE TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE \r\nENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY 72 HR AND THE\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME AS THE\r\nFORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IF THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT FINDS DATA\r\nSHOWING THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN...THEN WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nA PORTION OF THE WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 29.8N  79.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N  80.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 29.1N  81.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 28.9N  82.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 28.8N  83.7W    25 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 28.8N  85.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nEDOUARD CONTINUES TO HANG ON TO MINIMAL STORM STATUS IN SPITE OF \r\nSTRONG SHEAR.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN \r\nRISING...NOW UP TO 1008 MB...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH \r\nCONVECTION TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. INDEED...EVEN THE BANDING STRUCTURE \r\nHAS IMPROVED.  LATEST RECON REPORTS SHOW 1500 FT WINDS OF 45 KT IN \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH SUPPORTS 35 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\n\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...BUT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO HAS BEEN \r\n270/3.  12Z RAOB DATA ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUGGEST THAT \r\nEDOUARD SHOULD STILL BE NUDGED A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\nWITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTANCE \r\nOF THE CONVECTION COULD ALSO SLOW THE APPROACH TO THE COAST AND \r\nINDUCE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK.  THE UKMET REMAINS \r\nAN OUTLIER AS IT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT EDOUARD WILL TURN AWAY \r\nWITHOUT REACHING THE COAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL AMPLE SHEAR AND THE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE NOT AS DRY AS \r\nYESTERDAY...IS STILL NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY.  BOTH \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY PRIOR \r\nTO LANDFALL.  WITH THE DELAYED FORECAST LANDFALL UNTIL AFTER ANOTHER \r\nDIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE...DECAY TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH NO LONGER \r\nSEEMS LIKELY...HENCE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 29.9N  80.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 29.7N  80.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.4N  81.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 29.0N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 28.8N  83.2W    30 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  85.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nTRYING TO TIME LANDFALL WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKE TRYING TO\r\nTIME THE MARKET.  EDOUARDS FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND\r\nFOR THE LAST TWO DAYS.  DURING THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD\r\nOVERNIGHT...THE MOTION WAS VERY SLOW...BUT DURING THE DAYTIME IT HAS\r\nMOVED SMARTLY AGAIN...AT ABOUT 6 KT...TOWARD THE COAST.  WHILE THE\r\nTIMING HAS BEEN ADMITTEDLY PROBLEMATIC...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COMING\r\nASHORE VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LAST TWO DAYS OF OFFICIAL FORECASTS\r\nHAVE BEEN CALLING FOR.\r\n\r\nPEAK WINDS ARE RIGHT AROUND MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...\r\nPERHAPS JUST BELOW.  THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST\r\nRECON AIRCRAFT WERE 38 KT...OR JUST OVER 30 KT WHEN ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nSURFACE.  THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBS OF 30\r\nKT AS WELL.  HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE\r\nVIGOROUS CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nATTENTION NOW TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS TO EDOUARD IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  EVEN THE UKMET NOW MAINTAINS A TON OF SHEAR OVER EDOUARD AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  A FURTHER DIFFICULTY FOR\r\nEDOUARD IS THE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS THAT VERY LITTLE OF EDOUARD\r\nSURVIVES IN THE GULF.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 29.6N  81.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 29.3N  81.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 28.9N  82.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.7N  83.3W    25 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 28.8N  84.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 29.5N  86.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nEDOUARD MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH BETWEEN 00Z AND\r\n01Z.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THEREFORE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND \r\nWARNING ARE DISCONTINUED.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nCENTER MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.  SINCE THERE IS NO INDICATION \r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... \r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION...ASSUMING EDOUARD MOVES INTO THE GULF...SEEMS A \r\nREMOTE POSSIBILITY AT BEST.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO OVER 40 KT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE SYSTEM STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY \r\nRAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TRACK...OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 250/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EDOUARD SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE U.K. MET...WHICH \r\nREFUSES TO MOVE EDOUARD ACROSS FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 29.3N  81.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  82.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 28.7N  83.0W    25 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 28.7N  84.0W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 28.9N  85.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  87.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n\r\nEDOUARD CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A SWIRL OF LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS\r\nWITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  SOME CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB...AND\r\nTHAT WINDS OVER LAND ARE 15 KT OR LESS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE \r\nREDUCED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME\r\nSTRONGER WINDS REMAIN OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MAY\r\nBE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 250/6...AND RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THAT SINCE 06Z.  EDOUARD\r\nIS SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U. S. AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nFOR 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  AFTER THAT TIME...EDOUARD WILL BE APPROACHING\r\nWHAT IS FORECAST TO BE A PERSISTENT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nIN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  EVEN IF THIS AREA DOES NOT DEVELOP\r\nINTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD\r\nCAUSE EDOUARD TO TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MOST TRACK FORECAST\r\nMODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nIT BY UPDATING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nEDOUARD CONTINUES UNDER 35-55 KT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS AND PROXIMITY TO THE DISTURBANCE IN THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER\r\nTHE CYCLONE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nWHILE EDOUARD DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE RIGHT DYNAMICS FOR\r\nWIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL\r\nAND SOUTHERN FLORIDA MEANS THAT ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES\r\nARE POSSIBLE TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 29.0N  81.9W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 28.9N  82.6W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 28.7N  83.6W    20 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 28.8N  84.8W    20 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 29.2N  85.9W    20 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 30.0N  88.0W    20 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nEDOUARD HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IS \r\nEMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY HAS NO DEEP \r\nCONVECTION AND MINIMAL RADAR SIGNATURE.  IN ADDITION...EDOUARD \r\nREMAINS UNDER 40 KT NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...AND THIS SHEARING \r\nENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE OR NO REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THE GULF.  \r\nEDOUARD...OR ITS REMNANTS...ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND PASS TO THE EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE IN THE \r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 28.7N  83.0W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.5N  84.0W    20 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 28.5N  85.3W    20 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 28.6N  86.4W    20 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  88.0W    20 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nEDOUARD IS GENERATING SOME INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT...ENOUGH TO KEEP IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 260/7.  EDOUARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST\r\nAND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE\r\nDISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN GULF UNITL IT DISSIPATES.  SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM AND NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW TO 72 HOURS...BUT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BEFORE\r\nTHEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 28.7N  83.8W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 28.5N  85.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.7N  86.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N  88.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  89.5W    20 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 32.5N  91.5W    15 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nEDOUARD CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT \r\nCONVECTION. SURROUNDING DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 20 KNOTS. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS TOO HIGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REGENERATE DESPITE THE WARM \r\nOCEAN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS ARE GIVEN BELOW TO 72 HOURS...BUT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE IN 12 TO \r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 28.4N  84.3W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.5N  85.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  87.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  88.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 30.0N  89.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 32.0N  91.0W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nEDOUARD IS BARELY ALIVE AT THE MOMENT...WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DISPLACING WHAT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY WEAKEN TO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nLOW LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY EITHER \r\nDISSIPATE INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST OR BE ABSORBED INTO\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/7.  THE FLOW AROUND FAY IN THE WESTERN\r\nGULF WILL LIKELY TURN EDOUARD MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 28.3N  85.1W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 28.3N  86.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 28.7N  87.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 29.6N  89.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 30.7N  90.0W    20 KTS...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT EDOUARD IS A \r\nLIFELESS CLOUD SWIRL WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION.  THE REMNANTS ARE \r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND GET ENTRAINED INTO THE \r\nCIRCULATION NORTHEAST OF FAY.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON \r\nEDOUARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 28.7N  86.7W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 29.3N  88.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND A SMALL \r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION WITHIN A LARGE BROAD LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF \r\nOF MEXICO.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION DID NOT TECHNICALLY MEET THE \r\nREQUIREMENTS FOR A VORTEX MESSAGE...IT WAS CLOSED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY \r\nINITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO \r\nFOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF \r\nGALVESTON.  REPORTS FROM SOME OF THE OIL RIGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE \r\nWINDS ARE VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...BUT \r\nMOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT OVER \r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SLOW MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE \r\nPOSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE FLOODING EVENT ALONG THE TEXAS AND/OR \r\nLOUISIANA COAST.\r\n\r\nDEPENDING WHERE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FIRMS UP...THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWINDS COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH SHEAR TO THE \r\nWEST OF THE CURRENT CENTER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ROUGHLY IN \r\nACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 28.1N  93.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 28.5N  93.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.9N  94.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.4N  94.8W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  95.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 30.5N  96.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH AND AROUND THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND FOUND A BAND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45\r\nKNOTS...AND A PEAK OF 52 KNOTS...AS IT WAS APPROACHING THE AREA OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION EARLIER TONIGHT. SINCE THEN MAX WINDS ARE ABOUT 40\r\nKNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR REPORTS CLEARLY SHOW A\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO\r\nFIND A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT CENTER. IF THE CYCLONE IS NOT A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM NOW...IT PROBABLY WILL BE SOON...SO MIGHT AS WELL NAME IT NOW.\r\nOVERALL THE SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING IN THE AREA AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.\r\nTHEREFORE..SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND BY NO MEANS IS THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ORGANIZING.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nWEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  A\r\nSLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT SHOULD BEGIN ON FRIDAY.  THIS SLOW MOTION\r\nWILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE FLOODING EVENT ALONG THE\r\nTEXAS AND/OR LOUISIANA COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 28.0N  93.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.0N  93.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 28.8N  94.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 29.5N  95.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 30.0N  95.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  96.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM CDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nWHILE IT IS DEVELOPING...FAY REMAINS A POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THIS MORNING.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 95.2W...WHILE WSR-88D DATA\r\nFROM HOUSTON SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD BE TRYING TO RE-FORM\r\nFURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE CONCENTRATED STRONG\r\nCONVECTION.  THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES.  REPORTS FROM BUOY 42019 INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS DROPPED TO AT LEAST 1005 MB...SO FAY IS MAINTAINING AT LEAST\r\n35 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION VERY \r\nPROBLEMATIC...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE BEING STATIONARY.  FAY IS\r\nSOUTH OF A WEAK LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE SCALE MODELS \r\nSUGGEST COULD BECOME WEAKER AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL\r\nU. S.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECASTING\r\nA SLOW EITHER NORTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY MOTION.  THE BAM MODELS\r\nAND LBAR SUPPORT THE NORTHWEST SCENARIO...WHILE THE AVN...GFDL...\r\nAND UKMET SUPPORT THE MORE WESTERLY SCENARIO.  THE NOGAPS HAS THE\r\nMOST EXTREME SOLUTION...MEANDERING FAY AROUND THE WESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO FOR 6 DAYS.  RIGHT NOW...THE POOR CENTER DEFINITION AND\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF RE-FORMATIONS MAKE IT VERY DIFFICULT TO CHOOSE\r\nWHICH GUIDANCE SET MAY BE CORRECT.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPTED SHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION.  NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST AND THE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY DEPENDING\r\nON WHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER FINALLY CONSOLIDATES.\r\n \r\nFAY IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDIMINISH AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE STORM.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL.  THE CURRENT LARGE CENTER SUGGESTS THE STRENGTHENING\r\nSHOULD BE SLOW AT FIRST...THEN FASTER AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES.\r\n\r\nFAY SHOWS SOME SIMILARITIES IN SIZE AND STRUCTURE TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FRANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IN SEPTEMBER 1998.  AS IN\r\nFRANCES...THE EFFECTS OF FAY EXTEND FAR FROM THE POORLY-DEFINED\r\nCENTER...SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE OVER-EMPHASIS ON THE EXACT CENTER\r\nPOINT OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 27.6N  94.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  94.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 28.7N  95.4W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 29.3N  96.2W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 29.9N  97.2W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 30.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nRECON REPORTED SPOT WINDS OF 68 KT...A BROADER AREA OF 60 KT \r\nWINDS...AND A VISUAL SPOT SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 55 KT...BUT THEY STILL \r\nHAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  RADAR \r\nIMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE RECON REPORTS.\r\n\r\nESTIMATING A SYSTEM MOTION IS DIFFICULT WHEN THERE IS NO WELL \r\nDEFINED CENTER TO FOLLOW.  SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING A \r\nCLOUD SWIRL BUT THE AIRCRAFT IS FINDING ONLY A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT \r\nAND VARIABLE WINDS.  THE OVERALL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A \r\nWESTWARD DRIFT.  THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FAY THAT \r\nIS EXPECTED TO GENTLY NUDGE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR \r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT \r\nOF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED \r\nBELOW...WE ARE STILL PRESUMING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT \r\nOF THE CENTER NORTHWARD THAT WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL WNW TO NW \r\nSYSTEM TRACK.  IN ANY EVENT...ALL THE WIND AND WEATHER IS NORTH OF \r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FAY THAT APPEARS TO BE \r\nPROVIDING A LITTLE MORE SHEAR THAN VENTILATION...AND THE BETTER \r\nUPPER CONDITIONS ARE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT CENTER.  AS A \r\nRESULT...ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO \r\nLANDFALL.  THE UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY FORECASTING... \r\nHOWEVER...HAVE NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AT \r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 27.9N  95.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.3N  95.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 28.7N  96.0W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.3N  97.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 29.7N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  99.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nRECON REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FAY HAS A BROAD AND \r\nILL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A \r\nSUCCESSION OF CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND THE BROADER LOW...WHICH \r\nSTILL IS BASICALLY STATIONARY.  THE WELL-DEFINED BAND SEEN ON RADAR \r\nEARLIER IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED NOW.  HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE \r\nCONTINUES TO STEADILY FALL...AND 18Z SPECIAL NWS RAOBS SHOW THE 200 \r\nMB FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BACKING...IMPROVING THE OUTFLOW TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST OF FAY AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE SHEAR.  WHETHER THIS \r\nWILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPROVEMENT TO ALLOW FAY TO REACH HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IS A CLOSE CALL...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH \r\nMIGHT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TONIGHT.  MOST RECENT PEAK RECON \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 \r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH JUST A \r\nSMALL NUDGE SOUTHWARD.  THE PRECISE LANDFALL POINT IS LIKELY TO BE \r\nOF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE WEATHER NORTH OF AND \r\nWELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 27.8N  94.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 28.1N  95.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 28.6N  96.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 29.0N  97.6W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 29.4N  98.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FAY IS NOT TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM\r\nAND IT RATHER RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nDEFINED AND THE PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING BUT THERE ARE STILL\r\nA FEW SMALL VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION.\r\nMOST IMPORTANTLY...THE MAIN CENTER IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCONVECTION. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AND\r\nONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE\r\nMEXICO/US BORDER IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OVER THE CYCLONE.  WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH FAY...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...WHICH\r\nCOULD HAPPEN IF THE UPPER-LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...WOULD RESULT IN FAY\r\nREACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFAY HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING.  FAY\r\nSHOULD BEGIN A WEST- TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT ON SATURDAY AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  THE PRECISE LANDFALL POINT IS LIKELY TO BE OF\r\nLITTLE SIGNIFICANCE IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE WEATHER NORTH OF AND\r\nWELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 28.0N  95.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 28.0N  95.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 28.5N  96.5W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  97.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 29.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 29.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS...IN PARTICULAR FROM BUOY 42012 AT 27.9N\r\n95.4W...INDICATE THAT FAY BEGAN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF\r\nWEST...ABOUT 285/4.  IF THIS MOTION CONTINUES...THE BROAD AND\r\nILL-DEFINED CENTER WILL BE ON THE COAST AROUND MIDDAY.  THERE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE TO SLOWLY STEER THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AFTER\r\nMOVING INLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...JUST A BIT SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...AND IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.  A FEW BANDS OF \r\nCONVECTION ARE REDEVELOPING EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER...HOWEVER  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO INHIBIT \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THERE IS NOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION \r\nBEFORE LANDFALL...ASSUMING FAY DOES MOVE INLAND TODAY.\r\n\r\nSINCE THIS IS A SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM...RAINS AND FLOODING OVER \r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE STILL A CONCERN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 28.1N  95.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.3N  96.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 28.6N  97.1W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 28.9N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 29.0N  99.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 29.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fay","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR..SHOW THE CENTER OF FAY\r\nIS WELL INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE \r\nIS 290/6.  THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nLOCATED NORTH AND BUILDING WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD MOTION WITH A \r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL \r\nLIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO...A TRACK IS GIVEN THROUGH 72 HOURS \r\nTO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW MOVER.\r\n \r\nWIND SPEEDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE 25 KNOT RANGE...BOTH INLAND TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER AND OVER THE GULF.  THEREFORE THE \r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS.  A RIG SOUTH OF LOUISIANA REPORTS \r\nSEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET...SO A RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IS GIVEN TO THE \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS RIG...639...ALSO REPORTS SUSTAINED 35 \r\nKNOTS...BUT THE ANEMOMETER IS AT 105 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 29.2N  97.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  98.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 29.8N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 29.8N  99.6W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 29.6N 100.2W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 29.2N 100.8W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH CROSSED THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS \r\nA FEW DAYS AGO AND CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS \r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON \r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF 30 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM \r\nPRESSURE OF 1009 MB.  THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTHENING. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL DEVELOPS THE DEPRESSION INTO A TROPICAL \r\nSTORM.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS. THERE \r\nIS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A \r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/NELSON\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 24.6N  48.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 25.2N  49.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.0N  51.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 27.0N  52.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 28.0N  54.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 29.0N  55.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS\r\nTHE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SOME HOLES IN IT AND\r\nTHE AVIATION MODEL DEVELOPS TROUGHING NEAR 50-55 DEGREES WEST\r\nLONGITUDE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ALSO THE AVIATION MODEL DOES NOT\r\nINITIALIZE THIS WEAK DEPRESSION.  THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOW A MOSTLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF LIMITED AND\r\nDECREASING DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 30\r\nKNOTS.  WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...THE\r\nUPPER WINDS ARE HOSTILE AS SUGGESTED BY THE CURRENT TREND OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 24.7N  48.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 25.0N  49.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 25.3N  51.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 25.8N  53.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 26.5N  54.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  56.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-7 REMAINS EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS ALLOWS FOR BETTER\r\nPOSITIONING AND THUS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n275/06.  TD-7 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL \r\nRIDGE. THE NHC SUITE OF MODELS NOW AGREE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nMOTION THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHWEST AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH PICKS UP THE SYSTEM AND RECURVES \r\nIT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED \r\nTOWARD THE AVIATION SOLUTION AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS.  AVN MODEL FORECAST\r\nOF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT A SPEED MAXIMUM WILL BEGIN\r\nAPPROACHING THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 12 TO 24 HOURS SO THAT\r\nTHE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS OCCURRING NOW WILL GET WORSE.  THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANCE FOR THE TD TO DO ANYTHING BUT HOLD ITS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY AS THIS SPEED MAXIMUM MOVES OVER IT...IF IT CAN SURVIVE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 24.5N  49.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 24.6N  50.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 24.9N  52.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.6N  53.7W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 26.3N  55.2W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  57.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE \r\nDEPRESSION.  THIS...ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING SHIP OBSERVATIONS... \r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED \r\nTO 25 KT.  NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA \r\nSO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H.  \r\nHOWEVER...UNLESS THE DEPRESSION MAKES A COMEBACK SOON...DISSIPATION \r\nWILL OCCUR MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS ABOUT 280/8.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN \r\nPROVIDIN THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...SO THE FORWARD \r\nSPEED SHOULD SLOW SOMEWHAT AND THE SYSTEM...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS \r\nLIKELY TO TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 24.7N  50.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 25.0N  51.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 25.4N  53.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 25.7N  54.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 26.2N  55.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 27.0N  57.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE DEPRESSION TO BE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION \r\nAND IT HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  STRONG VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT REINTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 24.4N  51.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 24.5N  53.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 25.2N  54.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 25.7N  55.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 26.4N  56.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 27.5N  58.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002\r\n \r\nA LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC \r\nOCEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM IS \r\nNOW IDENTIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING ABOUT 030/10 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A \r\nMID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TURN \r\nIT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE \r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM GETS PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE \r\nWESTERLIES.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND \r\nOTHER MODELS AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THIS \r\nFORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM RATHER CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH \r\nCAROLINA IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE \r\nTHAT THE WIND SPEED MAY BE HIGHER...A 40-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED \r\nQUIKSCAT WIND SPEED AND A SUSPICIOUS REPORT FROM A DRIFTING BUOY TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS \r\nTHE WIND SPEED SLOWLY TO 45 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS THE \r\nGLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM GUIDANCE.  IF THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES MORE \r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST.  \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 28.7N  70.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.4N  71.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 31.7N  72.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 32.5N  74.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 33.0N  75.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 36.0N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM \r\nGUSTAV.  THIS IS BASED ON AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT \r\nREPORT OF 40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG \r\nWITH 1006 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  SO GUSTAV IS JUST BARELY OF STORM \r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN IT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD AND \r\nDECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS \r\nSHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE \r\nSYSTEM GETS PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THIS IS THE \r\nSCENARIO OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL \r\nMODELS...AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER ALMOST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN \r\n36 TO 48 HOURS...AND REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF \r\nNORTH CAROLINA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS \r\nTHE WIND SPEED SLOWLY TO 50 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS AND 60 KNOTS IN 72 \r\nHOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE \r\nSHIPS STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL.  IF GUSTAV ACQUIRES MORE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 30.6N  71.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 32.0N  72.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 33.2N  74.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 33.7N  75.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 34.8N  75.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 38.5N  67.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002\r\n \r\nGUSTAV CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK \r\nMORE TROPICAL-LIKE. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED \r\nJUST NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE OTHER MODERATE CONVECTION \r\nHAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ANTICYCLONIC \r\nOUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN ALL BUT THE EASTERN \r\nQUADRANT. THE LONG BAND OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTION \r\nTO THE EAST HAS BEGUN TO SEPARATE AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN \r\nCIRCULATION...FURTHER SUGGESTING THAT GUSTAV IS TRYING TO TRANSITION \r\nOVER TO A PURE WARM-CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF \r\n40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES OF ST3.0...OR 45 KT FROM TAFB AND ST2.5 PLUS...OR 40 KT \r\nFROM SAB...ALONG WITH THE LAST RECON PRESSURE REPORT INDICATING \r\nANOTHER 1 MB DROP. A 08/2238Z THAT JUST CAME IN ALSO CONFIRMED THE \r\nADVISORY POSITION AND ALSO SHOWED A LARGE FIELD OF 35 KT WINDS IN \r\nTHE CLEAR SLOT TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONGER WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE \r\nFOUND IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12. THE CENTER WAS PLACED \r\nNORTHEAST OF ALL THE SATELLITE FIX POSITONS WHICH KEYED ON THE \r\nWELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...I HAVE FOLLOWED \r\nCONTINUITY WITH A CONSERVATIVE CLOUD FEATURE THAT WAS CLOSE TO THE \r\nLAST RECON FIX POSITION. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...IT \r\nAPPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CENTER...ALONG WITH THE \r\nBAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL MERGE AT A LOCATION ABOUT \r\n120 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\nAT THAT TIME...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY TRANSITION OVER TO A FULL TROPICAL \r\nSTORM. UNTIL THEN...THERE MAY SOME ERRATIC MOTION IN THE FORM OF \r\nLARGE LOOPS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND INDICATED BY THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH AT LEAST 18 HOURS. AFTER \r\nTHAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...ESPECIALLY BY 36 HOURS. \r\nTHE GFDN AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE FARTHEST WEST AND TAKE GUSTAV \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO A POSITION ABOUT 30 TO 45 NMI SOUTH OF CAPE \r\nFEAR IN 36 HOURS AND KEEP IT STATIONARY UNTIL 48 HOURS...AND THEN \r\nMOVE IT RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TAKING GUSTAV NORTHWEST FOR 24 HOURS OR \r\nSO AND THEN NORTHWARD TO JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS AT 48 HOURS... \r\nAND THEN RAPIDLY RECURVES IT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT AS A \r\nSTRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE \r\nTO THE AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE THE TRANSITION OVER \r\nTO A FULL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS HELD \r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH \r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 70 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36 TO 48 \r\nHOURS...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING ALONG THE WARM GULFSTREAM \r\nAND UNDER 10 TO 15 KT OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THIS MAY CREATE A BRIEF \r\nPERIOD OF IDEAL CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH \r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 31.2N  72.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 32.2N  74.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 33.0N  75.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 34.4N  76.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 35.7N  74.9W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 39.0N  66.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 09 2002\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nON THE SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH MORE DEEP CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45\r\nKT...SO THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE\r\nINTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF GUSTAV LATER TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS STILL DOMINATED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION...CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nBECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A REASONABLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO.  THUS...ASSUMING THAT\r\nGUSTAV TAKES ON MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nIS LIKELY.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A DISTINCT \r\nFRONTAL ZONE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND THERE \r\nCONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF SPREAD IN POSITION ESTIMATES.  BEST \r\nESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE \r\nTRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CURRENTLY...THERE IS A \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV WHICH IS INDUCING THE \r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A MAJOR \r\nCHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN AT 500 MB WITH A MAJOR TROUGH \r\nREPLACING THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST BY 72 H.  THIS \r\nSHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 31.7N  73.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 32.6N  74.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 33.8N  75.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 35.1N  75.4W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 36.5N  73.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 41.5N  62.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 09 2002\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF GUSTAV IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THERE IS AT BEST ONLY A WEAK WARM CORE WITH\r\nTHE SYSTEM AT 850 MB AND THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS ON THE\r\nORDER OF 75-100 N MI.  THUS...GUSTAV REMAINS A 40 KT SUBTROPICAL\r\nSTORM WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  GUSTAV IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nLARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE RIDGE WILL COLLAPSE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 36-48 HR AS TROUGH AMPLIFICATION AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE\r\nCYCLOGENESIS BEGINS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FORECASTS\r\nBY CALLING FOR GUSTAVE TO MAKE A RIGHT TURN AS IT NEARS THE\r\nNORTH CAROLINA COAST.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION...AS USUAL...IS THE\r\nTIMING OF THE TURN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...CALLING FOR GUSTAVE TO RECURVE OFFSHORE IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nMOST GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK COULD ALLOW THE CENTER TO REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST\r\nBEFORE THE TURN...OR POSSIBLY EVEN THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE EXTREME LEFT OUTLIER ETA MODEL.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...GUSTAVE APPEARS TO BE SUFFERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  THIS IS\r\nSLOWING THE WRAPPING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHEAR SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HR...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nCONTINUED DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES REALLY\r\nDICEY AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH THE DEVELOPING WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE\r\nTO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL INHIBIT\r\nDEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HR.\r\n\r\nEVEN IF GUSTAV DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL...IT IS FORECAST TO COME\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO THE U. S. COAST TO SPREAD TROPICAL STORM WINDS\r\nAND HEAVY RAINS ONSHORE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 32.0N  74.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 32.8N  75.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 34.1N  75.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 35.3N  74.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 36.6N  72.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 41.5N  61.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 09 2002\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD SWIRLS ARE\r\nROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF GUSTAV THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE\r\nMEAN CENTER CURRENTLY ON THE EDGE OF RE-DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS CONTINUES TO BE 75-100 N MI WITH\r\nLITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF A WARM CORE.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS DURING THE PAST 6 HR WERE 53 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.\r\nREPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41002 INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS \r\nDROPPED TO NEAR 999 MB.  BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...GUSTAV REMAINS\r\nA 40 KT SUBTROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nUSING THE MEAN CENTER OF THE MULTIPLE LOW CLOUD SWIRLS GIVES AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 295/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A\r\nDEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE THE NORTHEASTERN U. S.\r\nAND CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY\r\nSTEERING GUSTAV WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE\r\nTO RECURVE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST.  AS EVEN THE ETA\r\nMODEL IS NOW TRENDING TOWARD A RECURVATURE SOLUTION...THE ONLY\r\nQUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN OCCUR.  THE FORECAST TRACK GOES\r\nWITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE RECURVATURE WILL BEGIN IN 12-24 HR WITH\r\nTHE CENTER PASSING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OUTER BANKS IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH MOS OF THE GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS RE-ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO A\r\nCURVED BAND...AND THIS ALONG WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALL\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A SLOW AND UNSTEADY DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING.\r\nTHE EASTERLY SHEAR SEEN EARLIER APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING\r\nAS FORECAST...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HR AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE COAST.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL LIKELY INCREASE BOTH THE DYNAMIC\r\nFORCING AND THE SHEAR ON GUSTAV.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH\r\nTHE SCENARIO THAT THE FORCING WILL WIN OUT OVER THE SHEAR UNTIL\r\nTHE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THUS CALLS FOR SOME \r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR.\r\n\r\nEVEN IF GUSTAV DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL...IT IS FORECAST TO COME\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO THE U. S. COAST TO SPREAD TROPICAL STORM WINDS\r\nAND HEAVY RAINS ONSHORE.  ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WOULD REQUIRE THE WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE\r\nCOASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 32.2N  74.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 32.9N  75.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 34.4N  75.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 35.5N  74.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 37.0N  71.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 42.5N  59.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 09 2002\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIX CENTER POSITION AT 00Z IS ABOUT 75 N MI SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE SATELLITE POSITIONS.  I AM FAVORING THE AIRCRAFT WHICH IS\r\nSOMEWHAT SUPPORTED BY WILMINGTON AND MOOREHEAD CITY RADAR.  THIS\r\nGIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10 WHILE THE SATELLITE POSITIONS\r\nGIVES A 310 DEGREE HEADING.  IN EITHER CASE...THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY\r\nTURN THE STORM NORTHWARD RIGHT AWAY AND NORTHEASTWARD BY 24 HOURS\r\nAND SO DO I.  THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH A DEEP\r\nTROUGH PICKING UP THE STORM IN 12 HOURS AND ACCELERATING IT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nAN AIRCRAFT WIND OF 55 KNOTS AT 1500 FT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nINCREASING THE WIND TO 45 KNOT.  STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN 36\r\nHOURS IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AVIATION MODEL AND THE\r\nMUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS MODEL WHICH TREATS GUSTAV AS A TROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM... WHICH IT IS NOT.  THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST FROM THE\r\nGULFSTREAM 4 AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CIRCULATION EXTENDS UP TO 200\r\nMB...THIS IS NOT TROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KNOT WIND SPEED RADII IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 85 N MI BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND A HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION\r\nSURFACE WIND FIELD ANALYSIS.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE 24 HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOSITION REQUIRES CHANGING THE WATCH TO A WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nVIRGINIA AND SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 32.5N  75.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 33.5N  76.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 35.5N  74.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 37.5N  71.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 40.5N  64.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 51.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2002\r\n \r\nGUSTAV STILL DOES NOT APPEAR VERY TROPICAL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nDATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET SHOW THAT GUSTAV REMAINS\r\nUNDERNEATH AN UPPER LOW...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A WARM CORE.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT\r\nLOW-LEVEL RECON FIX AND THE MID-LEVEL RADAR CENTER...SO IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nGUSTAV MAY TRANSITION SOON.  FOR NOW...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL\r\n60 TO 90 NMI AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM IF THE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS\r\nDEVELOPED FOR PURELY TROPICAL SYSTEMS.  BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL HELP\r\nTHE SYSTEM BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFOLLOWING THE RECON FIXES HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE...BUT WITH A LITTLE\r\nIMAGINATION THEY APPEAR TO DEPICT AT LEAST TWO CYCLONIC LOOPS OVER\r\nTHE LAST 12 HOURS. SMOOTHING OUT THE LOOPS IN THE RECON TRACK GIVES\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/8...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED\r\nRECURVATURE IS BEGINNING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER \r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 33.5N  75.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 35.0N  75.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 37.0N  72.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  67.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 43.5N  60.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 52.0N  46.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2002\r\n\r\nGUSTAV HAS FORMED A POORLY-DEFINED INNER WIND MAXIMUM THAT APPEARS\r\nTO BE ROTATING AROUND THE INSIDE OF THE LARGER CENTER.  OVERALL...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS SHOWING INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH SATELLITE\r\nAND RADAR IMAGERY.  BASED ON THIS...SUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV HAS\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE 62\r\nKT WHILE THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 987 MB.  BASED ON THAT\r\nDATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 50 KT.\r\n \r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH THE GYRATIONS OF THE INNER CENTER...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 005/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING TO THE\r\nEAST AND NORTHEAST OF GUSTAV.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE\r\nTROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO\r\nWEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD.  THIS WOULD ALLOW GUSTAV TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE.  ALL TRACK MODELS AGREE WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THIS IS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  THE ONLY\r\nQUESTION IS HOW CLOSE THE CENTER WILL GET TO CAPE HATTERAS BEFORE\r\nTHE TURN OCCURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE TURN TO BEGIN\r\nIN 6-12 HR...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION AWAY FROM THE U. S. COAST. \r\n \r\nGUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING.\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR...AND BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FROM THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY HELP AS WELL.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT...GUSTAV\r\nWILL START TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nINCREASINGLY INVOLVED WITH THE TROUGH.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL\r\nINDICATE THE COMBINATION OF GUSTAV AND A NON-TROPICAL LOW SPAWNED\r\nBY THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS\r\nTHIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 34.4N  75.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 35.4N  74.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 37.4N  70.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 41.0N  64.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 46.2N  55.9W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 54.0N  46.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION WRAPPED ALMOST\r\nALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND A RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nDROPPED TO AT LEAST 984 MB...AND THERE WAS A 55 KT SHIP REPORT OF\r\nUNKNOWN QUALITY FROM JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...WINDS\r\nFROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET SHOW INTENSIFICATION OF\r\nTHE WIND FIELD...ALTHOUGH THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE EASTERN \r\nSIDE.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND\r\nTHERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THIS COULD BE A LITTLE LOW.\r\n \r\nSMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRLS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE CENTER...\r\nMAKING THE MOTION A SOMEWHAT IMPRECISE 005/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THE RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC RETREATING TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-\r\nLAYER TROUGH APPROACHING GUSTAV FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD CAUSE GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...WHICH\r\nIS WHAT ALL TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR.  THE BIG FLY IN THE OINTMENT\r\nIS THAT THE STORM HAS NOT YET STARTED TO TURN.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nWILL CONTINUE CALL FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN 6-12 HR...FOLLOWED\r\nBY ACCELERATION.  THIS SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nGUSTAV IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING...AND BETWEEN SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES...SHEAR...AND BAROCLINIC FORCING CONDITIONS SHOULD \r\nREMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...GUSTAV\r\nSHOULD START TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH/NON-TROPICAL SURFACE LOW\r\nAND SHOULD TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER EVENTS EVOLVE...\r\nTHERE SHOULD BE A POTENT STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 35.3N  75.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 36.8N  73.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 39.9N  68.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 44.7N  60.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 50.0N  52.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 56.0N  46.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2002\r\n \r\nGUSTAV LOOKS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MORE TROPICAL THAN IT HAS EVER\r\nBEEN WITH A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.\r\nTHERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nINDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS BUT THERE ARE NO\r\nOBSERVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OR MAX WINDS AT THE TIME OF\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GUSTAV REACHES HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOL\r\nWATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTAV HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN AND IS NOW\r\nMOVING NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 16 KNOTS...AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST.\r\nGUSTAV IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nDIRECTION BUT DIFFERS IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE OUTER\r\nBANKS.  BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE \r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OUTWARD \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 36.2N  73.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 37.5N  71.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 40.5N  66.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  60.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 51.0N  53.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 58.0N  47.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  GUSTAV IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 AND 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT A 60 KNOT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE\r\nTWO ESTIMATES.  THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE OFFSET TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE.  BUOY 44004 IS DIRECTLY\r\nIN THE STORMS PATH AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KNOW IF GUSTAV HAS\r\nREACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH FROM THIS BUOYS WIND OBSERVATIONS.\r\nGUSTAVE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND ONLY HAS 12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER.  ON THE OUTBOUND \r\nLEG...IT REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS IN THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTIVE CDO AREA.  THE DROPSONDE DATA IS NOT YET AVAILABLE FOR \r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975 MB MEASURED BY THE \r\nAIRCRAFT...GUSTAV MIGHT BE A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 37.4N  72.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 44.5N  61.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 49.3N  56.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 52.5N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 57.5N  52.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002\r\n \r\nJUST AFTER THE 5 AM ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 80 KT WINDS AT 850 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WITH CONVECTION WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.\r\nBASED ON THIS...THE 975 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...GUSTAV IS UPGRADED\r\nTO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  WHILE LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nIS EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND \r\nSTATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MERGE\r\nWITH THIS DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOME A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT CROSSES NOVA SCOTIA AND \r\nNEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/20.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nGUSTAV SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24-36 HR...THEN SLOW AND \r\nTURN LEFT ONCE IT REACHES THE LABRADOR SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK REFLECTS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 38.6N  69.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 42.4N  64.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 47.2N  59.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 51.5N  54.6W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 54.7N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 60.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002\r\n\r\nA COMBINATION OF ACCELERATION AND THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION HAS GIVEN GUSTAV A ELONGATED AND MESSY STRUCTURE.\r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE 850 MB WIND CENTER IS NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE\r\nCENTER...AS A DROPSONDE AT THE 850 MB CENTER SHOWED A 974 MB\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE AND A DROP AT 850 MB WIND MAXIMUM FOUND A 964 MB\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE.  THE LOWER VALUE IS ASSUMED TO BE THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE\r\n104 KT...WHICH WOULD SUGGESTS MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 80-85 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OBSERVED BY THE STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT WERE\r\n71 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO A\r\nPOSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/33.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND\r\nSURFACE LOW NORTHWEST OF GUSTAV SHOULD CAUSE A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... \r\nFOLLOWED BY DECELERATION AND A NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THIS IS THE \r\nSCENARIO OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS IT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS NOW NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...AND\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER ARE STARTING TO WARM.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS NEAR\r\nPEAK AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND WILL SOON START TO LOSE TROPICAL \r\nCHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER...THE STRONG BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS OF THE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN GUSTAV...OR WHATEVER RESULTS FROM A MERGER\r\nOF GUSTAV WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW...AS A STRONG SYSTEM FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 41.2N  65.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 44.7N  61.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 49.2N  56.7W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 53.0N  53.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 57.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 61.0N  55.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002\r\n\r\nGUSTAV HAS ACCELERATED GREATLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS\r\nEVENING...AND IS NEAR THE EASTERN END OF NOVA SCOTIA.  ALTHOUGH AN\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AROUND 2200 UTC...THE\r\nCENTRAL FEATURES HAVE NOW BECOME RAGGED-LOOKING ON IR IMAGERY.\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AND LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ARE LIKELY ON\r\nTHURSDAY...BUT GUSTAV SHOULD STILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL STORM\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE\r\nSUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nTHIS IS ALSO SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH\r\nARE ALREADY TOO SLOW IN THEIR SHORT-TERM PREDICTIONS.  SOME SLOWING\r\nOF THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A LARGER\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT HIGH LATITUDES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 45.0N  61.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 48.8N  56.4W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 52.0N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 56.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 60.0N  51.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2002\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT\r\nGUSTAV IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT INTERACTS WITH A\r\nNON-TROPICAL UPPER LOW.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED\r\nSIGNIFICANT AND WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n\r\nGUSTAV HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A\r\nLARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 035/41.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS\r\nUNCHANGED AND GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AND TURN MORE\r\nNORTHWARD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV AND NO \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM. \r\nHOWEVER...NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESSURE HAS \r\nFALLEN TO 960 MB.  PRESUMABLY THE CORE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKENING...BUT \r\nTHERE MAY STILL BE SOME HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE INTERACTION OF \r\nGUSTAV WITH THE NON-TROPICAL UPPER LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC \r\nDYNAMICS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GUSTAV AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL \r\nSTORM FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGER UPPER LOW. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 48.0N  58.8W    65 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 52.5N  54.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 57.5N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 60.5N  53.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 63.0N  54.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n78HR VT     15/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 11 2002\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND A WELL-DEFINED WIND CENTER IN THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB.\r\nPEAK 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 40 KT WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 30\r\nKT AT THE SURFACE.  LATER PASSES SHOWED SOMEWHAT LOWER WINDS...SO\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CERTAINLY NOT STRENGTHENING AT THE MOMENT.  THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE IS ALSO NOT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS\r\nLITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nFARTHER SOUTH SHOW LITTLE CURVATURE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT\r\nCALL FOR A LOT OF STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 035/4.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT \r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF \r\nDAYS...WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION.  A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE \r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO \r\nTHE CENTRAL U.S. AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD \r\nINCREASE THE STEERING FLOW...AND POSSIBLY CARRY THE DEPRESSION \r\nINLAND BY 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE \r\n3-DAY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nUNLESS THE DEPRESSION STALLS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE \r\nNEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 26.5N  86.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  86.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  85.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 28.2N  85.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 29.0N  85.3W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 31.0N  84.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE EAST \r\nGULF BUOY BRIEFLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS TO 33 KT BEFORE DROPPING \r\nBACK DOWN...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRONGLY SHEARED AND SEMI-TROPICAL \r\nNATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE PERSISTENT EVIDENCE \r\nOF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BEFORE GIVING THIS THING A NAME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN \r\nBETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES...ONE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN \r\nTEXAS...AND ANOTHER ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  THE CYCLONE \r\nHAS A PARTIAL BAROCLINIC STRUCTURE WITH A WESTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT. \r\nDURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE ROTATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE \r\nMID-LEVEL CENTER.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW \r\nOVER THE U.S. SOUTHWEST ADVANCES EASTWARD.  THIS WOULD THEN BEGIN TO \r\nACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT TO THE \r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF \r\nTHE CURRENT GUIDANCE.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION OVERCOME THE SHEARING \r\nENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE...THEN I SUSPECT WE WILL HAVE \r\nTO MAKE ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nAS WITH OUR LAST TWO SYSTEMS...MOST OF OUR INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS OF \r\nQUESTIONABLE VALUE BECAUSE OF THE NON-TROPICAL ASPECTS OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION.  THE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL...BUT AT LEAST IT IS \r\nDIFLUENT...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ROUGHLY IN \r\nACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 26.9N  86.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.4N  85.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 28.1N  85.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 28.9N  85.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 30.0N  85.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 33.0N  83.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE WELL\r\nDEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE\r\nSYSTEM RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ON IMAGERY. MOST OF THE\r\nWEATHER IS CONFINED TO AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONIC CURVED BAND\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CENTER IS SMALL AND SHALLOW BUT IT\r\nHAS VERY GOOD PRESENTATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ARRIVED TO THE AREA OF THE DEPRESSION AND \r\nWILL DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING AND \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM ONLY TO 45 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS \r\nBEFORE LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A \r\nSMALL DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A SLOW \r\nNORTHWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD \r\nBRING THE CENTER NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN FACT...IT APPEARS \r\nTHAT THE SLOW MOTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS \r\nBEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER \r\nIS TO THE EAST AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS...A NEW TROUGH WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS A\r\nWEAKENING SYSTEM.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...PRIMARILY THE NCEP MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 27.3N  86.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  86.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 29.0N  86.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.5N  86.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  85.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 35.5N  80.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2002\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD OR SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING\r\nAROUND A MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DEVELOPS. ON THIS\r\nTRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGHTENED AT ALL DURING THE DAY.\r\nHOWEVER...IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT MOST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  AIR FORCE PLANE DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL 30 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n1002 MB. THERE IS A 24 TO 36 HOUR WINDOW WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO RELAX AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THIS CHANCE IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS...A NEW TROUGH WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS A\r\nWEAKENING SYSTEM AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT IS NOT REQUIRED TO MAKE CHANGES\r\nIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 26.8N  87.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N  87.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  87.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  86.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 32.5N  85.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 36.0N  80.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER \r\nORGANIZED...AT LEAST IN THE LOW-LEVELS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND \r\nSATELLITE MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS A TIGHT \r\nINNER CORE WIND FIELD WHILE THE OUTER WIND FIELD HAS ALSO EXPANDED \r\nAND STRENGTHENED...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A SMALL BURST \r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED \r\nSURFACE CENTER AND BANDING HAS IMPROVED TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON 2 SHIPS LOCATED WITHIN 30 NMI \r\nSOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF CENTER THAT REPORTED 30 KT AND A PRESSURE \r\nOF 1003.6 MB. A RECON AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE \r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY THE PAST 3 HOURS \r\nAFTER LOOPING TO THE SOUTH AT AROUND 6 KT. HOWEVER...A GENERAL SLOW \r\nDRIFT TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TONIGHT WITH A \r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR WESTWARD \r\nSHIFT BY ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE...WITH \r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS BEING THE FARTHEST WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST \r\nTIP OF LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...INFORMATION FROM A \r\nGULFSTREAM-IV AIRCRAFT OVERFLYING THE CYCLONE INDICATES THAT WHILE \r\nTHE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED...THE FLOW WAS STILL \r\nFROM THE WEST ON THE WEST SIDE. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT 500 MB \r\nHEIGHTS HAVE RISEN ABOUT 30 TO 40 METERS ACROSS FLORIDA AND CUBA \r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE IS BUILDING TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INCREASED \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO \r\nNUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD. WHILE THE NHC MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED \r\nWESTWARD...IT IS MORE TIGHTLY PACKED THAN ON PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. \r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDN KEEP THE DEPRESSION SHALLOW AND WEAK...WHICH \r\nPROBABLY EXPLAINS THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE GETS \r\nSTEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE \r\nNORTHWARD BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT AS AN APPROACHING \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PICKS UP THE CYCLONE. ALSO...WITH SOME WESTWARD \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE \r\nPERIOD...A MORE EASTWARD BIAS IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN \r\nAND UKMET SOLUTIONS. IMPORTANT NOTE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN \r\nWHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL \r\nSTORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND THE REMAINDER OF THE \r\nMISSISSIPPI GULF COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN \r\nEVEN MORE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY 24 \r\nTO 36 HOURS...THE AVN MODEL IS FORECASTING A WEAK RIDGE TO DEVELOP \r\nABOVE THE CYCLONE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE \r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS \r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWED AND IT BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 45 KT IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 26.6N  87.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 27.5N  88.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 29.0N  88.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 30.9N  86.9W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.8N  84.8W    30 KTS...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 35.5N  79.5W    25 KTS...INLAND LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002\r\n \r\nSHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...AS WELL AS RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED.  RECON AFTER 03Z REPORTED 45 KT IN\r\nTHE SE QUADRANT...AND THERE HAVE BEEN TWO SURFACE OBS OF 35 KT\r\nWINDS.  MOST RECENT RECON HAD 50 KT INBOUND NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.  CONSEQUENTLY\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nA RECON FIX JUST...JUST...BEFORE ADVISORY TIME INDICATES THAT HANNA\r\nHAS BEGUN TO MOVE AGAIN...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7...ALTHOUGH I\r\nAM NOT YET CERTAIN THAT THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nIS CURRENTLY IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE SMALL\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ERODE AND HEIGHTS ARE RISING TO THE EAST OVER FLORIDA.\r\nAS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE MOTION SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD RATHER\r\nSOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH NOW HAS THE BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE\r\nDATA FROM LAST NIGHTS FLIGHT OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET...IS MORE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK...I AM NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT CONDUCIVE TO \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE...SO SOME STRENGTHENING \r\nIS EXPECTED IN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 27.0N  88.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 28.2N  89.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 29.6N  88.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 32.0N  85.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 34.5N  83.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 38.0N  74.0W    40 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA CONTINUES TO BE\r\nEXPOSED.  THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nPORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION WHERE MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED.  THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM AN\r\nAIR FORCE PLANE AND QUIKSCAT.  BOTH MINIMUM PRESSURE AND INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAIN ABOUT 1002/1003 MB AND 40 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR HANNA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL AS THE SHEAR DECREASES.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT\r\nANTICIPATED THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nOVERNIGHT...HANNA JOGGED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TURN VERY\r\nSOON.  HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY AND\r\nTHEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN\r\nTHE WARNING AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.  IT SHOULD\r\nTHEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED SATES WITH\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nIT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE EAST AND NOT \r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 27.7N  89.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 28.7N  89.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N  88.0W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 34.0N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 36.5N  79.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 42.0N  68.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN STRUCTURE DURING THE DAY.  THE\r\nCENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WELL TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM THE RECON\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AND\r\nA LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1002 AND 1004\r\nMB DURING THE DAY.  THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR HANNA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR DECREASES AS\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT HANNA WILL REACH\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS REFUSED TO START THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTH AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN\r\nIS SUCH THAT THERE IS NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST HANNA TO MOVE NORTH\r\nAND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HANNA\r\nBECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  ON THIS TRACK...THE\r\nCENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE ON THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY\r\nSATURDAY.  IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED SATES WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nIT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE EAST AND NOT\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 27.8N  89.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.5N  89.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 32.0N  87.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N  83.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 37.5N  78.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 43.5N  67.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER...ALTHOUGH THE \r\nLATEST FIX AT 0208Z SUGGESTS A NORTHWARD MOTION.  ALL OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AS THE STORM\r\nBECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  SO THE FORECAST IS FOR THE CENTER TO\r\nBE NEAR THE COAST AT AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY.  THEREAFTER A GRADUAL \r\nTURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS THE CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT THREE \r\nDAYS AND WHATEVER IS LEFT SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT EMERGES OVER \r\nTHE ATLANTIC NEAR NEW ENGLAND.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED \r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THIS DOES NOT \r\nREQUIRE A CHANGE TO THE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THE 1001 TO 1003 MB RANGE ACCORDING\r\nTO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS.  THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED A 58\r\nKNOT WIND AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  EVEN THOUGH THIS IS THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF 45 KNOT SURFACE\r\nWINDS...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A BURSTING CDO PATTERN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nBUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AND CLOUD TOPS SEEM TO BE WARMING.\r\nTHERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT \r\n12 HOURS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH AS THERE IS ABOUT \r\n20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.\r\n \r\nNOTE THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER IS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 28.2N  89.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  88.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 33.0N  85.7W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 35.7N  81.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 38.6N  76.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 44.5N  63.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002\r\n \r\nIT TOOK A LITTLE WHILE...BUT HANNA IS FINALLY MOVING ON THE EXPECTED \r\nTRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/8.  CONCURENT WITH THE \r\nACCELERATION...THE CONVECTION HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE EASTERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION IS STARTING TO BECOME \r\nDEFORMED AND ELONGATED.  THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  RECON REPORTS PEAK 925 MB \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT.  USING A 75 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT FOR THAT \r\nPARTICULAR FLIGHT LEVEL INDICATES THAT SURFACE WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 \r\nKT.  \r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY BULLISH ON A SIGNIFICANT \r\nEXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.  THE ETA DISSIPATES HANNA RELATIVELY \r\nQUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE AVN ABSORBS THE CIRCULATION INTO \r\nTHE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  POINTS ARE \r\nGIVEN TO 48 HOURS BELOW FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE \r\nDISTORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ALREADY OCCURRING...I STRONGLY DOUBT \r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL LAST THAT LONG AS A TRACKABLE SURFACE ENTITY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 29.2N  89.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 31.1N  87.8W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 33.5N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 36.0N  80.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 38.5N  74.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL/DSPTNG\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED/DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF HANNA IS JUST ABOUT TO MOVE OR IS ONSHORE IN THE \r\nMISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER AS WE SPEAK. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOOKS \r\nGOOD ON SATELLITE WITH THE CENTER A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE \r\nCONVECTION AND NUMEROUS RAINBANDS. RECON JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM \r\nPRESSURE OF 1002 MB AND A FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WIND OF 59 KNOTS TO THE \r\nEAST OF THE CENTER. HANNA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ONCE ITS CIRCULATION \r\nMOVES COMPLETELY INLAND TODAY. BECAUSE MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE \r\nSOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY \r\nCONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HANNA IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  \r\n\r\nHANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 TO 9 KNOTS. THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A \r\nTROUGH. THEREFORE...THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL \r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 30.5N  88.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 32.2N  87.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  84.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 36.9N  80.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 40.0N  74.4W    30 KTS...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hanna","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002\r\n\r\nHANNA IS INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.  HANNA IS MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST...EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...ARE NOW 25 KNOTS OR LESS.  OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS\r\nAND GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN \r\nASSOCIATION WITH HANNA...OR ITS REMNANTS...DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS.  HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 31.1N  87.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 33.0N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 35.7N  82.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 37.9N  78.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 40.1N  71.6W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATED THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE\r\nSOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND FOUND A SMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH\r\n20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1009 MB.  HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A\r\nLARGE ENVELOPE...CURVED BANDS AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.  DESPITE THE\r\nEXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nBE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND IS MOVING TOO FAST.  THEREAFTER...IF IT\r\nSURVIVES THE EFFECTS OF LAND...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THIS\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE CENTRAL OR WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA AND DECREASES ITS FORWARD SPEED.  BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSIFY THE DEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY...MIGHT AS WELL NOT MENTION\r\nHOW STRONG...BUT THE UNBEATABLE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ONLY SHOWS A\r\nMODEST INTENSIFICATION VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OR MORE.  A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED INTO TWO BRANCHES.  THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nCARIBBEAN...AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE SYSTEM\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OVER HISPANIOLA OR EASTERN CUBA.  THE GFDL IS IN\r\nBETWEEN...BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CUBA AND THE\r\nEXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  INTERESTING FEW DAYS AHEAD.\r\n\r\nAT THIS TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY SQUALLS\r\nAND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTREME \r\nNORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 10.1N  61.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 10.5N  64.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 12.0N  67.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N  70.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N  73.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  76.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED\r\nCONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER BUT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINS.  ASSUMING THIS CENTER IS NOT DISRUPTED TOO SEVERELY BY THE \r\nMOUNTAINS OF VENEZUELA...THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM IS \r\nFORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE DEPRESSION \r\nEMERGES FROM SOUTH AMERICA.  AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN \r\nIS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND IS NOT LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF \r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS \r\nTHE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND HIGHER HEAT \r\nCONTENT WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS \r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOTION WITH A BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT AS \r\nTHE RIDGE WEAKENS.  THIS EVENINGS TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED \r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE CYCLONE STILL \r\nMOVING WESTWARD..ABOUT 275/19. THE 1800 UTC GFS HAD THE BEST \r\nINITIALIZATION OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS LEANED TOWARD \r\nHEAVILY IN THE FORECAST.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR TO \r\nTHE NORTH AND EAST AS THEY ARE ALREADY MOVING THE DEPRESSION \r\nERRONEOUSLY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  IN ADDITION...THE MODEL \r\nTREND OVER THE PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE \r\nHAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS \r\nBEEN SHIFTED ACCORDINGLY...BETWEEN THE GFDL AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 10.4N  63.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 10.8N  66.2W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.5N  69.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.3N  72.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N  74.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N  77.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER COMING OUT OF THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE \r\nMODE INDICATE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CLOUD \r\nFIELDS. ALSO...A SMALL OF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED \r\nJUST NORTH OF THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN...BUT I HAVE BASICALLY \r\nUSED EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TRIED TO MAINTAIN \r\nCONTINUITY WITH A CONSERVATIVE SATELLITE FEATURE THAT CORRELATED \r\nWITH THE LAST TWO RECON POSITIONS. THE INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS ALSO \r\nMAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AIR FORCE RECON WILL \r\nINVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING AND PROVIDE BETTER \r\nINTENSITY INFORMATION...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL \r\nSTORM STRENGTH AS IT PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES \r\nLATER THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18. THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES \r\nSUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER AND HAS ALSO \r\nTURNED MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE SINCE THE \r\nLAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN THE WESTWARD SHIFT BY ALL OF THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE. IN FACT...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK NOW LIES WELL \r\nOUTSIDE THE EASTERNMOST EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. AS SUCH...THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW TAKES \r\nTHE CYCLONE ALONG THE WEST COAST...INSTEAD OF THE EAST COAST...OF \r\nJAMAICA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. EXCLUDING THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MODELS... \r\nTHERE IS MUCH BETTER CONVERGENCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS FAR AS \r\nDIRECTION IS CONCERNED. THE UKMET MODEL KEEPS THE DEPRESSION WEAK OR \r\nNON-EXISTENT FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWARD \r\nTRACK TO THE EAST OF JAMAICA. HOWEVER...NOGAPS...AVN...THE AVN \r\nENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DIRECTION \r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST BY VIRTUE OF ITS \r\nROBUST DEEPENING...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS AND AVN MODELS ARE VERY \r\nSIMILAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND AVN \r\nCONSENSUS FOR TRACK DIRECTION...BUT THE SPEED OF THE AVN AND AVN \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS WAS USED.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE UNNERVING GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR\r\nAND THE PRIME OCEAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT LIE AHEAD.\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MDOEL ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 66 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS DUE TO NORTHERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 20 KT.\r\nHOWEVER... THAT FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK BEING EAST\r\nOF JAMAICA WHICH WOULD PUT IT CLOSER TO THE STRONG DIGGING JET\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROUGH THAT WILL BE\r\nACROSS THE NORTHEAST LESSER ANTILLES AFTER 48 HOURS.  WITH THE TRACK\r\nSHIFTED FARTHER WEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE LESS AND...IN\r\nFACT...THE STRONG DIGGING JET TO THE EAST WOULD ACTUALLY ENHANCE THE\r\nOUTFLOW AND POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED ABOVE\r\nSHIPS...AND IT COULD EVEN END UP BEING ON THE LOW SIDE WHEN ITS ALL \r\nSAID AND DONE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL DOES TEND TO \r\nPERFORM WELL IN WEAK OR LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS LIKE WHAT THE AVN IS\r\nFORECASTING AFTER 36 HOURS...AND THE GFDL BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO 955\r\nMB AND 112 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 10.7N  65.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 11.8N  67.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.4N  71.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.2N  74.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.9N  77.1W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N  80.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS \r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET STRENGTHENED...AND THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT \r\nSHOULD BE IN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY TO GIVE A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF ITS \r\nINTENSITY.  THE KEY TO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nIS THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE \r\nWEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  THE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD...AND GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME \r\nMORE OF A CUTOFF LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD \r\nPROVIDE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING OVER \r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH \r\nUPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT MAY ALSO BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS MODEL.  THUS \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT ALL THAT \r\nIMPRESSIVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AS IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES HAVE A LOT OF SCATTER BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL \r\nMOTION IS 285/19 AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES \r\nTO DOMINATE THE STEERING.  MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED \r\nTO SHIFT WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGES. \r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY \r\nWEAKEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THUS THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST SHOWS SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AN A GRADUAL TURN \r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.  ALTHOUGH A LOT OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED \r\nWESTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE NCEP AND U.K. MET MODEL \r\nFORECASTS WHICH FAVOR A TRACK TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REST OF \r\nTHE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 11.5N  67.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.6N  70.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N  73.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 16.2N  76.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N  78.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  80.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n\r\nTHE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT SEARCHED EXTENSIVELY...AND COULD NOT FIND A \r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS \r\nSHOWED ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST \r\nSOUTHEAST.  THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A \r\nTROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 70W.  DEEP CONVECTION \r\nHAS PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE \r\nWAVE...NEAR WHERE THE DEPRESSION WAS PROJECTED TO BE.\r\n\r\nTHE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE...AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHEREFORE... REGENERATION IS A POSSIBILITY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\nANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE WAVE \r\nTOMORROW. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z ...DEGENERATED INTO TROPICAL WAVE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED \r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION HAS REDEVELOPED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF \r\nJAMAICA AND SO ADVISORIES ARE REINITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION \r\nTEN.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...AND IS \r\nLOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS THE SYSTEM IS \r\nSTILL IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  RECENT IMAGES SHOW SOME BANDING \r\nSTRUCTURE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  \r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEW...THE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY \r\nUNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/8...PERHAPS LESS.  THE \r\nPRIMARY STEERING FACTORS ARE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING EAST/WEST \r\nACROSS FLORIDA...AND THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT EXTENDS FROM \r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE GENERALLY THAT THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD \r\nEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH RETREATS \r\nWESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT BECOMES OF \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BOTH THE AVN AND CANADIAN MODELS HINT AT \r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF A CENTER ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNDERNEATH \r\nTHE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY. \r\nTHE NOGAPS AND GFDL WANT TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD OVER \r\nCENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nSHOWS A SOFTER NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN AN ATTEMPT TO BE MORE \r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE 500 MB AVN AND UKMET LARGE SCALE FORECAST \r\nFIELDS.  PERHAPS COINCIDENTALLY...THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE BAM AND LBAR MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE AVN HAS BEEN OVERFORECASTING A DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE PAST \r\nFEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE AVN \r\nFIELDS...RESPONDS TO THIS BY TAKING THE DEPRESSION TO 82 KT IN 72 \r\nHOURS.  THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THOUGH THAT \r\nTHE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME LESS \r\nHOSTILE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN...AND AVN AND UKMET \r\nFORECASTS THAT SHOW SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST WILL ONLY BRING THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH \r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 15.9N  77.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.2N  78.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N  80.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N  81.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 19.0N  83.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH RECON\r\nREPORTS CONTINUING TO INDICATE A BROAD ELONGATED CENTER SOUTH AND\r\nWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE ABOUT 40\r\nKT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SPENT SOME TIME IN THE DEEP CONVECTION EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER TO SEE IF THERE WAS A SURFACE REFLECTION BELOW THE\r\nMID-LEVEL TURNING THAT WAS EVIDENT THERE.  THERE WAS NONE.  \r\nHOWEVER...IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO RECON FIXED A CENTER CLOSER TO THE \r\nNEW CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA...NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE.  THIS MAY PRESAGE THE BEGINNING OF AN ORGANIZATION TREND.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME...AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 285/5.  THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING FACTORS ARE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING EAST/WEST\r\nACROSS FLORIDA...AND THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT EXTENDS FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\nOVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OR SLIDE EASTWARD\r\nWHILE THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE A NEW\r\nTROUGH ENTERS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS A\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN AT THE END.  THERE IS NOW A GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS ON A PATH OVER WEST-CENTRAL\r\nCUBA...ALBEIT WITH DIFFERENT SPEEDS THAT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPACT ON THE TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST\r\nA LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE AVN DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO HANDLE THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX WELL.  THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV\r\nJET IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION...AND\r\nTHESE DATA WILL GET INTO THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL \r\nENVIRONMENT...AS THE FLOW IS TURNING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS \r\nIMPROVING AS WELL.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE...WITH \r\nSHIPS BRINGING THE DEPRESSION TO 81 KT IN 72 HR.  AN EXPERIMENTAL \r\nVERSION OF SHIPS...THAT INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF UPPER OCEAN HEAT \r\nCONTENT...TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 98 KT.  THE GFDL IS DOING ITS USUAL \r\nTHING...INTENSITY-WISE...BUT IN THIS CASE IT MIGHT BE RIGHT.  I HAVE \r\nINCREASED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT \r\nWOULD LIKE TO SEE JUST A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION FROM THE CYCLONE \r\nBEFORE CALLING FOR SO MUCH STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...MY GUT FEELING \r\nIS THAT SUBSEQUENT INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL BE RATHER HIGHER THAN \r\nTHIS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 16.3N  77.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 16.7N  78.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 17.6N  80.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N  81.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 20.0N  83.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N  84.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER\r\nWITH DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES AND THE OUTFLOW IS RAPIDLY\r\nEXPANDING.  IT APPEARS TO BE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE.\r\nHOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST FINISHED INVESTIGATING THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND FOUND THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED AND\r\nIT REMAINS ABOUT 1006 MB.  MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE 41 KNOTS\r\nCONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. A NEW PLANE WILL BE \r\nTHERE AT 6 UTC.\r\n\r\nIR IMAGES STILL SHOW SOME PATCHES OF CIRRUS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW\r\nBLOWING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM THE\r\nDROPSONDES LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET.  THESE WINDS HAVE\r\nBEEN PRODUCING SHEAR.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE\r\nBEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING A 200 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  IN FACT...LATEST NCEP GLOBAL RUN\r\nHAS A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS...PERFECT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  WITH SUCH A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE \r\nFACT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF\r\nVERY HIGH UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES\r\nWESTERN CUBA.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE\r\nPRESURE TO 939 MB JUST NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES\r\nAT 5 OR 6 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nWEAK BUT THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nSLOW NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY\r\nLITTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR WESTERN CUBA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE BUT IS\r\nBIASED TOWARD THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN.  THE LATTER MAKES \r\nTHE CYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER WESTERN CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN \r\nGULF OF MEXICO IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 16.9N  77.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N  78.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 18.9N  80.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N  81.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 21.5N  82.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 23.0N  84.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND 46 KT WINDS AT A\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL OF 1500 FT ABOUT 65 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nBASED ON THIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO 35 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6 HR.  THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES\r\nTHE CENTER IS BROAD AND ELONGATED...AND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nREMAINS NEAR 1006 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...IT IS WELL\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE COLDEST TOPS. \r\n \r\nGIVE THE CONDITION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN 315/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER FLORIDA...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS...AIDED BY DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET MISSION\r\nLAST EVENING...INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH 72\r\nHR EVEN THOUGH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN\r\nGULF COAST BY 72 HR.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW ISIDORE TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nALL TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE ISIDORE IS\r\nGENERATING VERY COLD CONVECTION WITH A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN...THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO\r\nUNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW.  THIS SHEAR...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT\r\nSTATE OF DISORGANIZATION...SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING WILL BE\r\nSLOW FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HR AND THAT THE GFDL IS TOO FAST IN\r\nMAKING ISIDORE A HURRICANE IN 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE DEVELOPMENT RATE...WITH SOME INCREASE\r\nIN DEVELOPMENT RATE AFTER 24 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT \r\nISIDORE COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AFTER IT BECOMES A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 17.2N  78.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 17.9N  79.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 19.2N  80.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 20.5N  81.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 21.6N  82.9W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 23.0N  84.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nWE ARE IN A BRIEF GAP BETWEEN RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS \r\nMORNING...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISIDORE CONTINUES TO \r\nORGANIZE...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CURVED BAND SOUTH OF THE CENTER \r\nAND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER.  THE NEXT \r\nAIRCRAFT WILL ALMOST SURELY FIND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER FOR THE FIRST \r\nTIME AND INCREASED WINDS SHOULD FOLLOW RATHER QUICKLY.  CONDITIONS \r\nAPPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ONCE A WELL-DEFINED \r\nCENTER DEVELOPS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THINKING.  THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 315/6.  IN THE SHORT TERM...GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  THINGS GET \r\nINTERESTING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A MID-TO UPPER \r\nLEVEL TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  TIMING \r\nWILL BE EVERYTHING AS TO WHETHER ISIDORE HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH INTO \r\nTHE GULF TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...OR LEFT BEHIND.  THE \r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY VERY SLOW MOTION AT THE END \r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT THIS POINT...NO PORTION OF THE GULF OF \r\nMEXICO COASTLINE CAN BE RULED OUT AS A POTENTIAL ULTIMATE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 17.9N  78.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 18.7N  79.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 19.9N  80.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 21.1N  82.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 22.5N  83.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 23.5N  84.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT SEND A VORTEX \r\nMESSAGE...HIGH-DENSITY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT \r\nTHE CENTER OF ISIDORE HAS REFORMED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIX \r\nLOCATION...ROUGHLY WHERE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING \r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 59 KT...AND \r\nIS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  MOMENTS AGO...THE \r\nAIRCRAFT CONFIRMED THE NORTHERN CENTER WITH A NEW PRESSURE OF 999 \r\nMB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW UNCERTAIN...SINCE I DO NOT KNOW HOW MUCH \r\nOF THE APPARENT TRANSLATION IS MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS REFORMATION.  \r\nMY ESTIMATE IS 325/8.  I NOTE THAT THE 12Z AVN DID HAVE A SHORT TERM \r\nNORTHWARD JOG PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT IS HAPPENING.  THE \r\nRELOCATION HAS FORCED AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE EARLY PART OF THE \r\nFORECAST TRACK...BUT THE OVERALL THINKING IS UNCHANGED.  GUIDANCE IS \r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 \r\nHOURS...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED NEAR THE END OF THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS AMPLE HEAT ENERGY BELOW...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN \r\nLOOKS GOOD...AND WITH A MORE SOLID INNER CORE CIRCULATION \r\nFORMING...ISIDORE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH THE NEW \r\nTRACK IS CLOSER TO THE CUBAN COAST...AND THIS MIGHT BE A SLIGHT \r\nINHIBITING FACTOR.   \r\n \r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BYPASS ISIDORE...AND THIS LESSENS THE\r\nTHREAT TO SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.  GLOBAL MODELS CUTOFF ANOTHER\r\nMID-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND TAKE IT SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA\r\nAND THE BAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NORTHERLY\r\nFLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW HELPS TO LEAVE ISIDORE IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  SPECULATING A\r\nBIT BEYOND THREE DAYS...THERE IS APPARENTLY ENOUGH MODEL RIDGING IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF FOR THE UKMET AND AVN TO TAKE ISIDORE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD.  HOWEVER...IF ISIDORE BECOMES A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nHURRICANE...THE ATLANTIC CUTOFF MAY NOT BE AS STRONG OR AS FAR WEST\r\nAS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND THIS COULD MEAN A MORE NORTHERLY...\r\nRATHERLY THAN WESTERLY DRIFT ACROSS THE GULF.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 19.0N  78.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 20.3N  79.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 21.3N  81.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 22.4N  82.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 23.3N  84.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 24.0N  85.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.\r\nHOWEVER...IT HAS LOST SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS\r\nPROBABLY MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 998 MB AND PEAK WINDS OF 56 KNOTS NEAR 0000 UTC.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.  ISIDORE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nVERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND IS HEADING TOWARD AN\r\nAREA OF VERY HIGH UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  IF ISIDORE TAKES\r\nADVANTAGE OF SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT SHOULD BE A HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE REACHING CUBA WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  I HAVE NEVER SEEN SO MANY CLOSED ISOBARS IN THE OUTPUT OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NOGAPS. THIS IS PROBABLY\r\nAND INDICATION THAT ISIDORE WILL BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AROUND\r\nA NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE BAHAMAS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nCROSSING WESTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A\r\nSMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE\r\nOF WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.\r\n \r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND\r\nISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OR MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  BOTH...THE GFDL AND THE CANADIAN MODELS MAINTAIN A\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF\r\nWORK IN THE NEXT COMING DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 19.7N  79.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 20.7N  80.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 22.0N  82.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 23.0N  83.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N  84.5W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 24.0N  85.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE IS STRENGTHENING.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 990 MB AND A GPS DROPSONDE INDICATES\r\nTHAT SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A\r\nPARTIAL EYEWALL.  IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE\r\nCENTER.  SINCE THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...IT IS VERY\r\nLIKELY THAT ISIDORE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.  THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND WILL PROBABLY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED WHILE\r\nISIDORE INTERACTS WITH LAND.  HOWEVER SINCE THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN\r\nCUBA IS NOT THAT RUGGED...IT SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IF ANY WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...BUT THIS MAY BE ONLY A WOBBLE.  THE SMOOTHED\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  DATA FROM THE G-IV JET\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM...AND BRING\r\nISIDORE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. OVER THE ENSUING FEW\r\nDAYS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE LARGE\r\nAMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST U.S. TODAY \r\nWILL HAVE ON ISIDORE.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE \r\nDIVERSE.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...SHOWS LITTLE EFFECT OF THE \r\nTROUGH AND TAKES ISIDORE WESTWARD...EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE \r\nGULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  THE U.K. MET. \r\nOFFICE AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...AND CLOSER TO \r\nFLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE...AND QUITE SLOW AT DAYS 2 AND 3...REFLECTING GREAT \r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISIDORE MAY EVENTUALLY GO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 20.0N  80.8W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N  81.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 22.2N  83.1W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 23.1N  84.4W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 23.5N  85.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  86.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nA DROPSONDE JUST BEFORE 12Z REPORTED MEAN WINDS IN ITS LOWEST LAYERS \r\nOF 75 KT.  ADJUSTMENT OF THIS OB TO THE SURFACE GIVE 59 KT...AND IS \r\nTHE BASIS FOR AN INCREASE IN THE ADVISORY WINDS TO 60 KT.  A \r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 12Z SHOWED A PRETTY SOLID EYEWALL.  THE NEXT \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 18Z...AND THEY WILL \r\nPROBABLY FIND A HURRICANE.  \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE THIS \r\nEYEWALL HAS BEEN FORMING...BUT AN AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE LAST 6 TO \r\n12 HOURS IS 290/7.  THE SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT ON A WNW-NW TRACK TOWARDS WESTERN CUBA.  NEAR THE END OF \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD ISIDORE SHOULD STALL AS THE TROUGH CURRENTLY \r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BYPASSES THE CYCLONE.  THIS LEAVES ISIDORE IN \r\nA VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN GULF SOUTH OF 25N HAS AMPLE WARM WATER TO \r\nSIGNIFICANT DEPTHS...SO A STALL THERE WOULD NOT HINDER DEVELOPMENT.  \r\nAN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS THE ALREADY EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE \r\nEAST OF ISIDORE...AND SO THERE IS A RISK OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE \r\nWINDS IN THE LOWER KEYS EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS ON TRACK.  A \r\nWATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED THERE LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nDUST OFF THE CHAOS BUTTERFLIES OF MIT PROFESSOR ED LORENZ.  BEYOND \r\nTHREE DAYS...THERE IS COMPLETE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AS \r\nA SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES SLIDE ALONG SOUTH OF THE \r\nMEAN TROUGH THAT SHOULD LINGER OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  EACH MODEL HAS \r\nITS OWN PERSONAL INTERACTION OF ISIDORE WITH A SHORT WAVE OF ITS \r\nCHOOSING...LEADING TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS RANGING FROM THE \r\nYUCATAN TO JACKSONVILLE.  IT IS SIMPLY NOT POSSIBLE YET TO BE \r\nCONFIDENT IN WHICH EVOLUTION WILL TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT...AS VERY \r\nSUBTLE CHANGES IN THE POSITION OF ISIDORE THREE DAYS FROM NOW COULD \r\nTURN OUT TO BE VERY IMPORTANT. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 20.0N  81.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 20.9N  82.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 22.0N  83.6W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 23.0N  84.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 23.5N  85.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  86.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IN ISIDORE HAS FALLEN TO 984 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 76 KT.  THE CREW ALSO ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT.\r\nON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING\r\nISIDORE THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  \r\n \r\nISIDORE HAS BEEN BASICALLY ON TRACK TODAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 300/8.  THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...TAKING ISIDORE \r\nOVER WESTERN CUBA IN 24 HOURS.  IN SPITE OF COPIOUS QUANTITIES OF \r\nDROPSONDES HAVING BEEN RELEASED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF ISIDORE FROM \r\nTHE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS...THERE REMAINS \r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS BEYOND 48 \r\nHOURS.  MUCH OF THIS DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE \r\nFORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW BETWEEN \r\nBERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.  THE AVN HAS THE STRONGEST AND MOST \r\nWESTWARD VERSION OF THIS LOW...AND THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE \r\nLOW MAY BE WHY THIS MODEL DRIVES ISIDORE SO STRONGLY SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR WHATEVER REASON...THE AVN \r\nENSEMBLE MEAN DOES NOT TAKE ISIDORE AS FAR TO THE WEST AS THE AVN \r\nCONTROL.  THE UKMET HAS FLIPPED FROM ITS EARLIER NORTHWARD \r\nTRACK...AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN.  I REMAIN \r\nUNCONVINCED THAT THIS LOW WILL BE AS STRONG OR AS WEST AS THE AVN IS \r\nFORECASTING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR THE GUIDANCE \r\nTO SHIFT WESTWARD...I HAVE NUDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WESTWARD \r\nNEAR 72 HOURS.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WHEN ISIDORE GETS INTO THE \r\nGULF...STEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK...AND IT WILL LIKELY \r\nMEANDER AND CAUSE MUCH ANXIETY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. \r\n \r\nNOW THAT ISIDORE HAS A WELL-FORMED CORE...THE PACE OF \r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL \r\nESTABLISHED AND THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE IS GROWING.  FOUR OUT OF \r\nFIVE OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION PREDICTORS ARE POSITIVE.  \r\nTHE ONLY SLIGHT NEGATIVE FACTOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS WILL BE \r\nINTERACTION WITH THE CUBAN LANDMASS.  IT IS LIKELY THAT ISIDORE WILL \r\nBE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 20.6N  82.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 21.3N  83.1W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.4N  84.2W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 23.2N  85.0W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  85.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     22/1800Z 24.0N  86.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE NEAR 2300 UTC REPORTED A \r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 981 MB.  ON ITS WAY HOME...A DROPSONDE LAUNCHED \r\nFROM THE PLANE REPORTED WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE RANGING FROM 90 TO \r\n95 KNOTS. SINCE THEN... SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE INDICATED THAT ISIDORE \r\nHAS BECOME STRONGER AS INDICATED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE \r\nINCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KNOTS \r\nAT THIS TIME WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 979 MB. THE NEXT PLANE \r\nWILL BE IN THE AREA AT 0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nALL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. ISIDORE IS \r\nBECOMING A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW...FEEDER BANDS \r\nAND IS MOVING OVER THE HIGHER UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE \r\nBASIN. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT 4 OF 5 REQUIRED \r\nPARAMETERS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION ARE MET. THEREFORE...ISIDORE IS \r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST GULF \r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nA HINT OF THE EYE CAN BE OBSERVED FROM BOTH HAVANA AND KEY WEST \r\nRADARS. THESE OBSERVATIONS COMBINED WITH SATELLITE FIXES GIVE AN \r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 305 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS...WHICH IS BASICALLY THE \r\nSAME AS 6 HOURS AGO. NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 \r\nHOURS AND ISIDORE WILL BE SPENDING FRIDAY CROSSING THE WESTERNMOST \r\nPORTION OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY \r\nUNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN TO A HALT IN THE \r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE DUE TO THE \r\nPASSAGE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. AT LONGER RANGE...ALL \r\nMODELS MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK EXCEPT THE \r\nNCEP GLOBAL MODEL. THE LATTER MOVES THE HURRICANE SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nTOWARD THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THIS SOLUTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO A \r\nSTRONG LOW WHICH THE MODEL DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. IT IS \r\nTEMPTING TO GO WITH THE NCEP MODEL SOLUTION SINCE THIS MODEL HAS \r\nBEEN VERY RELIABLE. BUT FOR NOW...IT IS BETTER TO KEEP THE HURRICANE \r\nWITH A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEYOND 48 HOURS UNTIL THE STEERING \r\nPATTERN BECOMES MORE CLEAR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 21.0N  82.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 21.7N  83.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 22.5N  84.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N  85.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z 23.5N  86.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N  87.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7.  THE CENTER CAN BE SEEN ON THE\r\nKEY WEST AND HAVANA RADARS AS WELL AS BEING TRACKED BY AIRCRAFT.\r\nTHE 00Z NWS GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM MODEL SHOWS A BIT OF MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A\r\nCONTINUED SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THE AVIATION MODEL AND UKMET\r\nSHOW A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS WHILE THE\r\nGFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A MUCH SLOWER WESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nNEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES IS FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND WE WILL AGAIN STRUGGLE WITH\r\nWHETHER OR NOT THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PICK UP ISIDORE.  IN ANY CASE\r\n...ISIDORE WILL BE WITH US FOR QUITE SOME TIME.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND WITH AN EVEN SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nALMOST ALL THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL IS TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE NEAR 08Z REPORTED 967 MB\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE.AND A RECENT DROPSONDE INDICATED THAT SURFACE WINDS \r\nARE NEAR 90 KNOTS NEAR THE 12 NMI DIAMETER EYEWALL.  AS SUGGESTED BY \r\nTHE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS\r\nCOULD BE TEMPORARILY HALTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CORE OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH WESTERN CUBA.  BUT INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESUME BY 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE ARE ONLY 3 OUT OF 5 REQUIRED\r\nPARAMETERS MET FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO 4 OUT OF 5 SIX\r\nHOURS AGO.  ALSO THE SHIPS DIAGNOSED INITIAL VERTICAL SHEAR IS UP TO\r\n20 KNOTS FROM 14 KNOTS SIX HOURS AGO.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS NEAR ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO\r\nTHE FLORIDA KEYS.  SO UNLESS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS TOWARD FLORIDA\r\n...THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE KEYS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 25-KNOT RANGE\r\nAND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL NOT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 21.3N  83.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N  84.1W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 22.7N  85.2W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N  86.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z 23.2N  86.8W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N  87.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS THIS MORNING...\r\nAND THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SEEN ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT.  ISIDORE\r\nREMAINS ON TRACK...300/7...TOWARD WESTERN CUBA.\r\n \r\nTO ITS CREDIT...THE FORECAST FROM THE AVN YESTERDAY OF A STRONG\r\nCUTOFF EAST OF FLORIDA SEEMS TO BE DEVELOPING ACCORDING TO ITS\r\nPLAN...AND THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE KEEPS SLIDING WESTWARD...INCREASING\r\nTHE THREAT TO THE YUCATAN AND DELAYING ANY THREAT TO THE UNITED\r\nSTATES GULF COAST.  THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF\r\nISIDORE IS SLIDING EAST IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST TROUGH...BUT I DO\r\nNOT BELIEVE THIS FEATURE IS DEEP ENOUGH TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE\r\nTRACK OF ISIDORE.  THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF TO KEEP ISIDORE BOTTLED UP AT LEAST UNTIL THE NEXT MID-LEVEL\r\nSHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE GULF IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  WHERE ISIDORE\r\nACTUALLY TURNS OUT TO BE IN 72 HOURS WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING\r\nWHETHER IT GETS PICKED UP BY THE SECOND TROUGH OR NOT.  SHOULD THE\r\nAVN BE RIGHT IN TAKING ISIDORE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN THEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE LEFT BEHIND...AGAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nREMAINS CONSIDERABLE GUIDANCE...IN THE FORM OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...\r\nAND CANADIAN...THAT SUGGESTS THAT ISIDORE WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH\r\nTO BE PICKED UP AND BEGIN A NORTHWARD MOTION IN THE THREE TO FIVE\r\nDAY TIME FRAME.  BUT IT IS STILL TOO CLOSE TO CALL.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE RADAR IMAGERY AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA \r\nTHAT ISIDORE HAS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  GIVEN THIS...THE \r\nNEARBY LANDMASS...AND AN EXPECTED SQUEEZING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nOUTFLOW BY THE NEIGHBORING UPPER LOWS...I DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE \r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER \r\nTHAT...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ISIDORE TO BECOME A MAJOR \r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 21.7N  83.9W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 22.1N  84.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 22.5N  85.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 22.8N  86.4W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N  87.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N  88.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/6.  WATER \r\nVAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD PUSH FROM THE UPPER \r\nTROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LOW IN THE GULF OF \r\nMEXICO IS NO LONGER ADVANCING ON ISIDORE...AND IN FACT...THERE IS \r\nNOW IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM ISIDORE AHEAD OF THIS LOW.  \r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS\r\nEARLIER.  THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH HAD CONSISTENTLY BEEN CALLING\r\nFOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION...HAS NOW GONE WEST.  THE GFDL IS MUCH\r\nWEAKER WITH ITS NORTHWARD JOG...WHILE THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST\r\nSYSTEM...OR GFS...THE MODEL FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE AVN...HAS ACTUALLY\r\nSHIFTED NORTHWARD A BIT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  THERE SHOULD BE\r\nENOUGH RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN GULF TO KEEP ISIDORE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nISIDORE WILL NOT BE AFFECTED VERY MUCH BY ITS BRIEF TRAVERSE OF \r\nWESTERN CUBA...AND WILL ENTER THE GULF WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN.  THE SHIPS MODEL THAT INCLUDES THE EFFECT OF OCEAN HEAT \r\nCONTENT BRINGS ISIDORE TO 121 KT IN 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST FORWARD \r\nSPEED SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT COLD WATER UPWELLING TO \r\nAFFECT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ISIDORE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 21.9N  84.3W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 22.4N  85.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 22.8N  86.4W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.9N  87.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 22.8N  88.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N  90.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT WAS CROSSING THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF CUBA.  THE EYE WAS OBSERVED BY RADARS FROM HAVANA\r\n...LA BAJADA CUBA...AND KEY WEST.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED\r\nA MINIMUM PRESURE OF 964 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE EYE IS NOW\r\nMOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT MOST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CUBA FOR SEVERAL\r\nMORE HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND\r\n06 UTC AND WILL DETERMINE IF ISIDORE LOST STRENGTH ON ITS LONG TREK\r\nOVER WESTERN CUBA.  THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nSUGGEST WINDS BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN\r\nIDEAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE...ISIDORE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nMODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT. MOST OF THEM SHOW A\r\nSLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVING HURRICANE ALONG AND NOT FAR FROM\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\nTHIS IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...I SEE TROUBLE\r\nON THE HORIZON. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY KEPT\r\nISIDORE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOW TURNING THE HURRICANE\r\nNORTHWARD.  NOGAPS AND THE GFDL ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE NORTHWARD\r\nTURN BUT A LITTLE BIT SOONER. THE UK HAS BECOME THE ONLY MODEL THAT\r\nMOVES THE HURRICANE WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.  THIS NORTHWARD TURN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nBAHAMAS BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS\r\nCONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND IN THE NORTHWARD \r\nTURN OF THE HURRICANE BUT THEY DIFFER IN THE TIMING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 22.4N  84.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 22.9N  85.4W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  87.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  88.0W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N  89.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5.  THE MAJOR GUIDANCE MODELS... \r\nAVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS....ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW \r\nWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  FOR A \r\nPREVIEW OF THE LONGER TERM...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT \r\nABOUT ISIDORE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES \r\nAFTER 72 HOURS AND HEADING NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN \r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA \r\nREQUIRES ISSUING A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ITS NORTH COAST. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS 964 MB AND GPS DROPSONDES SHOW \r\nTHAT WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THE 85 \r\nKNOT ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED.  HOWEVER...AN EYE IS APPEARING ON \r\nTHE LAST FEW INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTS \r\nCONCENTRIC EYE WALLS OF 15 AND 25 N MI DIAMETERS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS \r\nLIGHT.  SO ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO FOR SOME SERIOUS STRENGTHENING AND THE \r\nFORECAST TO 115 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS IS THE SAME AS THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 22.4N  85.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.6N  86.5W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N  88.0W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.2N  89.1W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 21.8N  90.3W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 21.7N  91.5W   115 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INFORMATION INDICATES HURRICANE\r\nISIDORE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\n...CATEGORY 3...BASED ON AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE WIND REPORT OF 100 KT\r\nAT 21/1200Z. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5...OR 102 KT...FROM ALL THREE \r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  RECON FIX POSITONS SINCE\r\nABOUT 06Z INDICATE ISIDORE HAS ACTUALLY MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION \r\nCAUSED BY SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW \r\nOVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WESTWARD \r\nMOTION SHORTLY AS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LOW DROPS FARTHER SOUTH \r\nWEAKENS AND ACTS TO STEER THE HURRICANE MORE WESTWARD...POSSIBLY \r\nKEEPING THE EYE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SO MUCH FOR THE \r\nSHORT TERM MOTION. THE LONGER TERM TRACK FORECAST IS NOT AS \r\nSTRAIGHT-FORWARD. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ISIDORE \r\nWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND \r\nAVN MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER \r\n48 HOURS. A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC \r\nNORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE \r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE 00Z MODELS DID NOT \r\nINITIALIZE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH VERY WELL AT 00Z...SO I AM NOT GOING \r\nTO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK GIVEN THE \r\nCURRENT WEAK STEERING CURRENTS THAT MAY BECOME EVEN WEAKER WITH \r\nTIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS \r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE AVN...AVN ENSEMBLE AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED 10 MB IN 6 HOURS BETWEEN 06Z AND \r\n12Z...SUGGESTING THAT ISIDORE IS LIKELY UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOUR OR \r\nSO BEFORE THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE YUCATAN \r\nPENINSULA. THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...SO SOME SLOW \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nENVIRONMENT FAVORS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN TO PERSIST...BUT \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AT MERIDA THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT SOME \r\nSHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION MAY UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FOR THIS REASON...I DID NOT TAKE ISIDORE \r\nUP TO 115 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT THAT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY. THE \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY AND IT BRINGS \r\nISIDORE UP 127 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 128 KT IN 60 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS \r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THAT THE SSTS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE INCREASE FROM \r\n84F TO 86F.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 21.9N  86.1W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.9N  86.9W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.9N  88.0W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 21.9N  89.2W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N  90.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N  92.5W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE MAJOR HURRICANE ISIDORE HAS CONTINUED \r\nTO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 21 MB IN \r\nTHE PAST 13 HOURS. A PRESSURE OF 946 MB GENERALLY CORRESPONDS TO A \r\nMAXIMUM WIND OF ABOUT 117 KT. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS OPEN TO THE WEST \r\nAND THERE MAY BE A LAG IN THE WIND FIELD. ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA \r\nINDICATED ABOUT 105 KT SURFACE WINDS...BUT WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED \r\nABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 130 KT. THE THREE SATELLITE \r\nAGENCIES REPORTED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0...OR \r\n115 KT...WHILE THE 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBER WAS ALSO T6.0. \r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO \r\n110 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3.  RECON FIX POSITONS SINCE\r\nABOUT 12Z INDICATE ISIDORE HAS ACTUALLY REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT RIGHT OVER SOME OF THE HOTTEST WATER IN THE \r\nATLANTIC BASIN. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ARE FORECAST BY \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL TO REMAIN WEAK OR EVEN GET WEAKER. ISIDORE REMAINS \r\nCAUGHT BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF FLORIDA AND ONE TO \r\nTHE WEST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK AND NARROW LOW- TO \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST \r\nFROM FLORIDA WESTWARD TO TEXAS. GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF THIS \r\nRIDGE...ONLY 5880 METERS AT 500 MB...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A \r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ERODE IT AND ALLOW ISIDORE TO DRIFT SLOWLY \r\nPOLEWARD. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT LBAR...KEEPS \r\nISIDORE MOVING ON A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE AVN AND GFDL ARE VERY SIMILAR IN HOOKING \r\nISIDORE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 36 \r\nTO 48 HOURS. THIS MAY BE SOME ARTIFACT OF TERRAIN INTERACTION WHICH \r\nI HAVE IGNORED FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT RIDGING NORTH OF ISIODRE TO PUSH THE \r\nSYSTEM TO SOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW...LESS THAN 6 \r\nKT...MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE \r\nTROUGH DROPS DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH...WHICH \r\nIS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WEAK RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE NORTHWEST \r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND ALLOW ISIDORE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. HOWEVER... \r\nTHE SLOWER ISIDORE MOVES DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WILL \r\nDETERMINE JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE IN THE LONGER \r\nTIME PERIODS BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT APPEARS THAT \r\nISIDORE IS NOT GOING TO GO ANYWHERE FAST. THE BAD NEWS IS THAT IT \r\nWILL REMAIN OVER VERY HOT WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 21 MB IN THE PAST 13 HOURS. A \r\nTYPICAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION PERIOD. THIS TREND WOULD NORMALLY \r\nCONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT RADAR AND RECON DATA \r\nINDICATE THAT THE EYE IS OPEN TO THE WEST AND THAT AN EYEWALL \r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY BE STARTING. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST IS HELD BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH BRINGS \r\nISIDORE TO 135 KT IN 36 HOURS AND 140 KT IN 60 HOURS. THIS TYPE OF \r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR...LESS \r\nTHAN 6 KT...AND HIGH SSTS...ABOUT 30C/86F. HOWEVER...PREDICTING \r\nINTERNAL CONVECTIVE CHANGES IS NEALRY IMPOSSIBLE SO THERE COULD BE \r\nFLUCUATIONS BY AS MUCH 10 KT EITHER WAY FROM THE OFFICAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST. SOME COASTAL UPWELLING MAY WEAKEN THE HURRICANE SLIGHTLY \r\nAS IT MOVES WEST OF 88W LONGITUDE...BUT THEN SOME RESTRENGTNENING IS \r\nFORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN ISIDORE IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER \r\nWARMER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 21.9N  86.2W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.9N  87.0W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.9N  88.0W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.9N  89.2W   125 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N  90.3W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 22.5N  92.5W   130 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n\r\nEARLIER TODAY...A RECON PLANE OBSERVED A SMALLER EYE AND A DOUBLE\r\nMAX WIND BAND STRUCTURE.  BOTH THE CANCUN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA\r\nSHOWED AN OUTER CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE.  THEN...THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE LEVELED OFF AROUND 946 MB.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nISIDORE WAS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL CYCLE OR REPLACEMENT.  THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY THE REASON THAT THE RAPID DEEPENING OBSERVED EARLIER HAS\r\nTEMPORARILY ENDED.  SINCE THE PLANE LEFT THE AREA THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nVERY DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND\r\nGLOBAL ARE 6.0 CORRESPONDING TO WINDS OF 115 KNOTS.  MOST RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ISIDORE MAY BE STRONGER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 110 KNOTS UNTIL \r\nPOTENTIALLY HIGHER WINDS ARE CONFIRMED BY RECON.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION AND THE ONLY NEGATIVE EFFECTS ARE THE YUCATAN \r\nPENINSULA AND ITS SURROUNDING SHALLOW COOL WATERS. ONCE ISIDORE \r\nMOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE \r\nTHE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS HIGHER...THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CYCLE OF \r\nINTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nISIDORE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nSTEERING CURRENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND ISIDORE IS FORECAST \r\nTO DRIFT WEST-OR WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ON A TRACK \r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN. THIS SLOW MOTION WOULD \r\nGIVE ENOUGH TIME FOR A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN \r\nATLANTIC THAT WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY \r\nTRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE \r\nTO THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL OR GFS...PREVIOUSLY CALLED AVN...ALTHOUGH \r\nMOST OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THE SAME NORTHWESTWARD \r\nTREND. \r\n\r\nIF THE HURRICANE MOVES TOO FAR SOUTH INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...I \r\nDOUBT IT WILL EVER MOVE NORTHWARD. IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE VERY \r\nSTRONG STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO PULL HURRICANES OUT OF THAT \r\nAREA. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 22.2N  86.7W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 22.1N  87.7W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  89.0W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 21.8N  90.5W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N  91.5W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 23.0N  92.5W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOUR\r\nMOTION.  THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MORE\r\nSOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  THERE IS \r\nA MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO \r\nNORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THAT MIGHT EXPLAIN THE MORE \r\nSOUTHWARD MOTION.  IN ANY CASE...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE \r\nCENTER SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE YUCATAN \r\nPENINSULA.  THE MODELS THEN SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS \r\nIN RESPONSE TO AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE BY THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT \r\nWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO \r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN 20 \r\nN MI OF THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST IN 24 HOURS.  EXCEPT FOR THE \r\nNEED TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I \r\nWOULD MOVE THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nA RECON DROP IN THE CENTER GAVE 936 MB AT 07Z.  THIS IS ABOUT 11 MB\r\nDROP IN SIX HOURS.   HOWEVER WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDO NOT SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM OUR PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nVALUE OF 110 KNOTS.  IN FACT GPS DROPS FROM THE AIRCRAFT SO FAR HAVE\r\nA HARD TIME SUPPORTING 110 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE\r\nNEAR 110 KNOTS IN A NARROW LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE.  PERHAPS THE\r\nSURFACE WINDS WILL SHORTLY RESPOND TO THE PRESSURE FALL.  VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS SMALL THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE\r\nIS IMPRESSIVELY LARGE...COLD AND SYMMETRIC.  THE OFFICIAL 12 HOUR\r\nFORECAST IS FOR 115 KNOTS...NOT AS HIGH AS THE 125 KNOTS ALLOWED BY\r\nTHE STANDARD PRESSURE WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR 937 MB.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CURRENT INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA WILL LIMIT THE STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS ALSO THE\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE\r\nCENTER IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM LAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 22.0N  87.9W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.8N  88.9W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N  90.1W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 21.2N  90.8W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.2N  91.4W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N  92.5W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 934 \r\nMB A FEW HOURS AGO...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 128 \r\nKT.  ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO REPORTED A DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5...OR 127 KT. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECORDED THUS FAR HAS ONLY BEEN 122 KT WHICH \r\nCONVERTS TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 110 KT...EVEN THOUGH \r\nDROPSONDE WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 133 KT JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET \r\nABOVE THE SURFACE. WHILE ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ISIDORE IS \r\nPROBABLY A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...I AM CONSTRAINED TO HOLD THE \r\nINTENSITY AT 110 KT UNTIL HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ARE MEASURED BY \r\nSUBSEQUENT RECON FLIGHTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ISIDORE HAS BEEN \r\nWOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THE PAST \r\n12 HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES. \r\nALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL WEST OR SLIGHTLY \r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN DIVERGE \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT WITH SOME MODELS TAKING ISIDORE NORTHWARD \r\nWHILE OTHERS TAKE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS \r\nJUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE \r\nAVN AND THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nAS LONG AS ISIDORE DOES NOT MOVE INLAND OVER YUCATAN...SOME SLOW \r\nINTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR AND ABUNDANCE \r\nOF WARM GULF WATER. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ISIDORE TO 127 \r\nKT IN 48 HOURS AND 130 KT IN 60 HOURS. NOTE THAT WITH INTENSE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES...THERE IS NO WAY TO FORECAST EYEWALL REPLACEMENT \r\nCYCLES WITH ANY ACCURACY BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE \r\nSOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 21.8N  88.5W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.6N  89.6W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.3N  90.5W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 21.3N  91.2W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N  92.0W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N  93.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":27,"Date":"2002-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 935\r\nMB...UP 1 MB FROM 7 HOURS AGO. AGAIN...THIS PRESSURE WOULD GENERALLY \r\nCORRESPOND TO ABOUT 128 KT AND CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.  ALL THREE \r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES CONTINUE TO REPORT A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE OF T6.5...OR 127 KT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT \r\nJUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN COAST CAME IN WITH 108 KT. ONE COULD ARGUE \r\nTHAT SINCE THIS WAS AN OFFSHORE WIND THAT STRONGER WINDS TO CATEGORY \r\n4 STRENGTH COULD EXIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE WATER. \r\nHOWEVER...THE BACKGROUND PRESSURE IS UNUSALLY LOWER THAN NORMAL...SO \r\nTHE TYPICAL PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP MAY NOT APPLY TO ISIDORE THE \r\nSAME WAY IT DID NOT APPLY TO HURRICANE FLOYD IN 1999. RECON IS STILL \r\nINVESTIGATING ISIDORE AND THEY ARE SCHEDULED TO PUNCH THROUGH THE \r\nNORTHERN EYEWALL DURING THE HOUR TO SEE IF STRONGER WINDS EXIST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/07. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED \r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VERY \r\nNARROW AND WEAK...5870 METERS AT 500 MB...MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT \r\nEXTENDS FROM NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE GULF \r\nCOAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS MENTIONED \r\nYESTERDAY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT THE MODELS DID NOT \r\nINITIALIZE WELL SHOWED UP QUITE NICELY TODAY IN THE 12Z UPEPR-AIR \r\nDATA AS A SMALL CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. A 30-35 KT SPEED MAX \r\nON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD HELP TO DIG THE LOW SOUTHWARD \r\nINTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO AND EFFECTIVELY WEAKEN AND \r\nEVENTUALLY ERODE THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THIS \r\nSHOULD ALLOW ISIDORE TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AFTER ABOUT 24 TO 36 \r\nHOURS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD AT A FASTER SPEED OF AROUND 10 \r\nKT BY 72 HOURS. BOTH THE AVN AND GFDL MODELS HAVE ABANDONED THEIR \r\nPREVIOUSLY CONSISTENT SHARP SOUTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN \r\nYUCATAN AND DEEP INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ALONG \r\nTHE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH \r\nENTERS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...WHICH SHOULD \r\nHELP TO GRADUALLY TURN ISIDORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE THE PREVIOUS TRACK \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER AFTER \r\nTHAT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN-AVN ENSEMBLE-UKMET-GFDL CONSENSUS. \r\nIT IS NOTEWORHTY TO MENTION THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN \r\nADVERTISING A MORE NORTHWARD TURN FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS...BUT IT \r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LOW SHEAR AND \r\nABUNDANCE OF WARM GULF WATER UP TO ABOUT 28N LATITUDE. THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ISIDORE TO 131 KT IN 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY \r\nVERY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER THAT. NOTE...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED \r\nSICNE ISIDORE IS ALREADY A LARGER THAN AVERAGE ATLANTIC \r\nHURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO GROW EVEN LARGER BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 21.5N  89.2W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 21.4N  90.2W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 21.4N  91.3W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N  92.0W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 22.3N  92.7W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 25.0N  93.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":28,"Date":"2002-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK...AND\r\nMOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN A FEW HOURS AGO.  THUS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL IT MOVES\r\nBACK OVER WATER.  ASIDE FROM THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...ATMOSPHERIC\r\nAND OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ISIDORE TO RECOVER ITS PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY AND MORE...PRESUMING THAT IT RE-ENTERS THE GULF TOMORROW.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECASTS BY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE BACK TO THOSE\r\nSHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTING HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES.  IF THE INNER CORE\r\nSTRUCTURE IS SEVERELY DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONES TRANSIT OVER\r\nLAND...IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND CURRENT MOTION IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...220/4.  THE MORE SOUTHERLY \r\nMOTION WAS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF ISIDORE.  GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL HURRICANE \r\nMODEL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST \r\nWITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD \r\nBEGIN TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MORE \r\nNORTHWARD MOTION.  NOT MUCH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED \r\nUNTIL A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM...PROBABLY \r\nBEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE THREE-DAY FORECAST POINT IMPLIES AN EVENTUAL THREAT TO EITHER \r\nTHE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...HOWEVER IT IS STILL \r\nTOO EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE THREAT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 20.8N  89.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.7N  90.3W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  91.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N  92.0W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 22.8N  92.5W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N  93.0W   125 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isidore","Adv":29,"Date":"2002-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS TRACKING THE CENTER OVER LAND.  THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 210/04.  THE GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A TURN TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO \r\nNORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A \r\nDEEP-LAYER-MEAN LOW EAST OF FLORIDA BEING REPLACED BY A RIDGE TO \r\nDRIVE ISIDORE NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL FORECAST \r\nSYSTEM MODEL PREVIOUSLY KNOWN AS THE AVIATION MODEL.  THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK SHOWS A POTENTIAL THREAT IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS TO THE NORTHWEST \r\nOR NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATED BY AIRCRAFT IS 952 MB WHILE \r\nTHE MAX WIND REPORTED AT 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL IS 76 KNOTS NORTHWEST \r\nOF THE CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON THIS \r\nDATA.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR 12 MORE HOURS WHILE THE \r\nCENTER IS OVER LAND.  THEN STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE \r\nCENTER MOVES OVER THE GULF WATERS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO \r\nREMAIN LOW AND IF THE PRESSURE STAYS IN THE 950 RANGE...THIS COULD \r\nHASTEN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  HOW STRONG WILL ISIDORE GET?  \r\nI DO NOT KNOW.  THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL CALLS FOR 99 \r\nKNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 100 KNOTS IN 48 \r\nHOURS.  THIS IS LESS THAN THE 125 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\n...BUT THAT VALUE WAS ORIGINALLY BASED ON THE CENTER REMAINING OVER \r\nWATER.  AND A FORECAST OF 100 KNOTS DOES NOT PRECLUDE THE \r\nPOSSIBILITY OF 125 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 20.4N  89.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 20.3N  90.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 21.2N  91.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 22.2N  92.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 23.1N  92.6W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N  93.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":30,"Date":"2002-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n\r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE\r\nCORE CONVECTION OF ISIDORE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....WITH\r\nTHE STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW IN BANDS WELL REMOVED TO THE SOUTH\r\nAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  EARLIER DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE WINDS HAVE COLLAPSED...WITH\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE REDUCED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nISIDORE WAS MOVING 180/5...BUT RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT MOTION HAS CHANGED TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT...POSSIBLY AS PART\r\nOF A LOOP.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER\r\nSOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING RIDGING FORECAST BY THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND NORTHWARD BY 72 HR.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GREATEST\r\nDIFFERENCES COMING IN SPEED.  THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST...CALLING\r\nFOR LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72 HR.  GIVEN THE\r\nLACK OF STRONG TROUGHING WEST OF ISIDORE...THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO\r\nFAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SLOWER...SIMILAR TO BUT\r\nMOVED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nISIDORE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND.  AFTER THAT...\r\nUPPER-LEVEL AND SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE INNER\r\nCORE...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR ISIDORE TO RE-ORGANIZE AND FOR\r\nTHE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT.  BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE\r\nCENTER WILL REMAIN OVER LAND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 20.1N  89.5W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N  90.1W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 21.1N  90.7W    45 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N  91.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N  92.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N  93.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":31,"Date":"2002-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n\r\nISIDORE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST 6 HR...\r\nWITH WIDELY SCATTERED DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION OCCURRING IN\r\nBANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.  THE\r\nEXACT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE A LITTLE IFFY AS THERE ARE\r\nCURRENTLY NO OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTRAL CORE OR IN THE OFFSHORE\r\nBANDS.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nISIDORE IS LIKELY IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A LOOP...AS THE STORM\r\nHAS NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR.  THERE IS NO CHANGE\r\nTO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS DEVELOPING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST AND DEVELOPING RIDGING\r\nTO THE EAST SHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTHWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST AND\r\nIS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW\r\nFORECASTING ISIDORE TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST AT 72 HR\r\nAND THE GFDL MOVING IT ONSHORE IN ABOUT 60 HR.  AS NOTED 6 HR AGO...\r\nTHE GFDL IS LIKELY TOO FAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT SPEEDWISE WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND THE TRACK MAY NEED TO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD IN\r\nSUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nISIDORE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND.  AFTER THAT...\r\nUPPER-LEVEL AND SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE INTERNAL\r\nDISORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...AS IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME TIME\r\nFOR ISIDORE TO RE-FORM A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING\r\nFOR SLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ISIDORE REGAINS HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS AND FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nLOOKING A LITTLE INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE...ISIDORE COULD MAKE LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  INTERESTS IN THAT REGION SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 20.3N  89.4W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 21.1N  90.1W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 22.3N  90.8W    40 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 23.6N  91.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 25.1N  91.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 28.5N  92.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":32,"Date":"2002-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ISIDORE HAS \r\nMOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IT IS STILL EXPECTED \r\nTHAT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE...AND FORCE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST \r\nSYSTEM...GFS...SHOWS A SOMEWHAT FASTER MOTION AND IS A LITTLE TO THE \r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT IS CAUSING \r\nTHIS CHANGE...BUT PERHAPS SOME OF THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS FROM THE \r\nNOAA G-IV JET HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATED IN THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS.  THE \r\nJET DATA SHOULD BE COMPLETELY UTILIZED IN THE NEXT...OOZ...RUN SO WE \r\nSHALL SOON SEE WHETHER THE FASTER AND MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS \r\nCONFIRMED.  FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO \r\nTHE EAST AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE SLOWER AND WEST OF THE NEW GFS \r\nTRACK.  THE 36-48 HR FORECAST POINTS AND WIND FIELD SUGGEST THAT A \r\nHURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON \r\nTUESDAY MORNING...PROVIDES ISIDORE STARTS TO MOVE SOON.\r\n\r\nISIDORE IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...IF AT ALL.  STRONGEST WINDS ARE \r\nPROBABLY CONFINED TO A FEW SPOTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND \r\nYUCATAN...AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION \r\nON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  HOWEVER SINCE THERE IS WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nAND A BROAD AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONIC OUTFLOW OVER \r\nISIDORE...RE-INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE ONCE THE CENTER MOVES \r\nBACK OVER THE WATER.  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ISIDORE WILL \r\nRE-STRENGTHEN.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THIS DEPENDS LARGELY ON HOW SOON \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S INNER CORE IS RE-ESTABLISHED.  ONCE THAT \r\nHAPPENS...ASSUMING IT DOES...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  \r\nBEARING IN MIND THE GREAT UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY FORECASTING... \r\nISIDORE COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE \r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 20.5N  89.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N  90.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 23.5N  90.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 25.4N  91.2W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N  91.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":33,"Date":"2002-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MERIDA MEXICO \r\nINDICATE THAT THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF ISIDORE IS ABOUT TO MOVE \r\nBACK OVER WATER...JUST NORTH OF THAT SITE.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE \r\nCHECKING THE AREA OVER WATER AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MEASURED \r\n5000-FOOT FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 76 KNOTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST \r\nOF THE CENTER AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED 44 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. \r\nTHEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS IN THIS \r\nADVISORY.  ISIDORE HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION AND BECAUSE THE \r\nCYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE...THE STRONG WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM \r\nTHE CENTER. BOTH...THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND OCEANIC \r\nCONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGHTENING. HOWEVER...IT IS \r\nNOT KNOWN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE INNER \r\nCORE TO RECOVER FROM ALL THE TIME THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN OVER LAND.  \r\nPAST EXPERIENCE WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD \r\nTAKE ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED BUT IT \r\nIS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ISIDORE REGAINS ITS FORMER INTENSITY.    \r\n\r\nAS GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER \r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS BEGINING TO STEER ISODORE TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND \r\nNORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEARING \r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nWITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXCICO WILL \r\nPROBABLY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 21.3N  89.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 22.1N  90.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N  91.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 26.2N  91.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  91.5W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 33.0N  89.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":34,"Date":"2002-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n\r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISIDORE IS COMPRISED\r\nOF A VERY LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH THE NEAREST\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS WELL-REMOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATED THE \r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS WAS NEAR 100-125 N MI...CONFIRMING THE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM YESTERDAY ABOUT THE COLLAPSE OF THE INNER CORE.\r\nRE-EXAMINATION OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE 50 KT...AND THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\n55 KT...55 KT...AND 45 KT SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB...AFWA...\r\nAND TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING\r\nRAWINSONDES INDICATE BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES AND WESTERN GULF COAST...AND A DEVELOPING\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN TO FLORIDA.  THIS\r\nPATTER SHOULD MOVE ISIDORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...WITH\r\nTHE STORM EVENTUALLY RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD IN FRONT OF AN\r\nAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO SAVE FOR THE NHC98UK...WHICH STRANGELY MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM SLOWLY NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HR FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN THE TRACK.  WITH\r\nTHE BROAD CENTER AND CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...ISIDORE\r\nWILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.\r\nA FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ONCE SOMETHING RESEMBLING\r\nA CENTRAL CORE REFORMS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORMAL\r\nRATE UNTIL LANDFALL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STORM MAY NOT\r\nBEGIN RE-INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST MOVES OVER WATER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION MAKES IT NECESSARY TO ISSUE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED...\r\nESPECIALLY IF THE THE WIND RADII EXPAND MORE THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 22.1N  90.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 23.3N  90.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 25.1N  91.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 27.3N  91.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 29.8N  91.0W    75 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 34.5N  87.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":35,"Date":"2002-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM CDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE CIRCULATION THAT COVERS\r\nALL OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS\r\nIN BANDS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST AND \r\nSOUTHWEST...THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE BANDING OF\r\nWEAKER CONVECTION NEAR TO THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.\r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 988 MB.  WHILE\r\nTHESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS ISIDORE MAY BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THIS\r\nMORNING...THERE IS A CERTAIN RELUCTANCE TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY\r\nWHILE THE SYSTEM IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A VERY UNCERTAIN 350/6...AS THE LAST\r\nFEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTS A SHORT-TERM MOTION A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF DUE NORTH.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nEAST AND BROAD TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD STEER ISIDORE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE\r\nMAINLY TO THE CURRENT INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.  SHOULD ISIDORE\r\nSTAY EAST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS AND\r\nTHE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FURTHER\r\nEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN THE TRACK. \r\nWITH THE BROAD CENTER AND THE LACK OF STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION...\r\nISIDORE WILL STRENGTHEN SLOWLY EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.\r\nA FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ONCE SOMETHING RESEMBLING\r\nA CENTRAL CORE REFORMS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORMAL\r\nRATE UNTIL LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...ISIDORE SHOULD WEAKEN AND\r\nTHEN MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE 72 HR POINT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 22.4N  89.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 23.7N  90.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 25.6N  90.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 27.9N  90.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 30.6N  90.1W    55 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 36.0N  84.5W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":36,"Date":"2002-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n\r\nTHUS FAR...THERE HAS BEEN NO EVIDENCE THAT ISIDORE IS REDEVELOPING\r\nAN INNER CORE...I.E.  STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A SMALL RADIUS\r\nOF MAXIMUM WINDS.  IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DATA FROM THE\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVES...AND THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 120 N MI OR MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE INNER\r\nCORE IS RE-ESTABLISHED.  AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND AWAY\r\nFROM THE SHELF WATERS NORTH OF YUCATAN...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A\r\nFAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF WARM WATER...HIGH HEAT CONTENT...WHICH WOULD\r\nFAVOR STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS\r\nLOOKED QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW\r\nSHOWS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWEST PART OF\r\nTHE STORM CIRCULATION.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA JET INDICATED DRY\r\nAIR IN THE AREA...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.  THIS MAY BE\r\nAN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A \r\nBROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nCONTINUE TO BE STEERED IN A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION UNTIL \r\nLANDFALL.  THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE \r\nMODELS...WHICH THEMSELVES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  ONLY A SLIGHT \r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED... UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL.  \r\nTHEN...ISIDORE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...SHOULD ACCELERATE \r\nNORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 23.5N  89.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 25.0N  90.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 27.2N  90.2W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 29.7N  90.2W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  89.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 41.0N  76.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":37,"Date":"2002-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE HAS BEEN OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 20 HOURS AND HAS NOT SHOWN ANY\r\nSIGNS OF REDEVELOPING AN INNER CORE.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY THE\r\nLATEST INFORMATION FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 990 MB WITH A CENTER\r\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN A\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  IN FACT...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS WARM\r\nAND THE SHEAR IS LOW...DUE TO THE LACK OF INNER CORE...ONLY A SLIGHT \r\nSTRENGHTENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR 60 KNOTS \r\nAT LANDFALL BUT DUE TO UNCERTANTIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE \r\nHURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nISIDORE IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 11 KNOTS...AROUND THE WESTERN \r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL TRACK WILL CONTINUE \r\nUNTIL LANDFALL IN A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD \r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THIS WAS BASICALLY \r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 24.8N  89.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 26.6N  90.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  90.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 34.5N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 44.5N  71.9W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":38,"Date":"2002-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE CONTINUES AS A LARGE STEADY-STATE CYCLONE THIS MORNING.\r\nBUOY OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 990 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE STILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER...WITH A MAXIMUM 850 MB WIND OF 67 KT.  TWO SHIPS TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 50-55 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH \r\nAS 65 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 50 KT.\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY BE FORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WITH DRIER AIR POURING INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE \r\nSTORM.  THIS SUGGESTS ISIDORE MAY BE LOSING SOME OF ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE \r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST TRACK REASONING.  ISIDORE IS MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BROAD\r\nTROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE STORM SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AFTER 24 HR AS IT ENTERS THE \r\nWESTERLIES.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND SO IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORMATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CHANCES OF ISIDORE BECOMING A HURRICANE HAVE\r\nDECREASED.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS MORE INTENSE...BETTER \r\nWRAPPED...AND CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING IN SPITE OF THE UPPER\r\nLOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...\r\nAND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ISIDORE COULD REACH HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALLL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR..FOLLOWED BY SOME\r\nRE-DEVELOPMENT AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS EXTENDED EASTWARD BASED ON EXPANSION\r\nOF THE WIND FIELD SHOWN BY BUOY 42003.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 26.0N  90.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 27.9N  90.3W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 30.0N  90.2W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  89.3W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 37.3N  85.3W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 46.5N  65.5W    35 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":39,"Date":"2002-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nISIDORE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST 6 HR...\r\nWITH A BAND OF CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD AND\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ONE NOTABLE ASPECT IS THE CONVECTIVE \r\nBURST CURRENTLY GOING OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT\r\nWHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 989 MB...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM \r\nWINDS REMAINS ON THE ORDER OF 100 N MI.  A SHIP LOCATED WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 56 KT GUSTING TO 71 KT...AND HAS \r\nMULTIPLE REPORTS OF 55 KT SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nTO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nISIDORE HAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/10.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST TRACK REASONING.\r\nISIDORE IS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND \r\nBROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  AFTER MOVING\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD TO LOUISIANA THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAND ACCELERATE AFTER 24 HR AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SO IS THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nPACKAGE NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST 24 HR.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST\r\nSOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND DRY AIR MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THIS SHOULD AT LEAST LIMIT \r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM LOOKS\r\nBETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO AND SHOWS INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION\r\nWRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  THERE IS A SMALL\r\nCHANCE THAT ISIDORE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY RE-DEVELOPMENT AS AN \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 26.8N  90.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 28.3N  90.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 30.5N  90.2W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 35.2N  87.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 39.3N  82.2W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 49.0N  58.9W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":40,"Date":"2002-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n\r\nISIDORE CONTINUES AS A VERY BROAD STORM...WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ...NEAR 90 N MI.  SURFACE DATA AND WIND ANALYSES FROM \r\nTHE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS \r\nAROUND THE CENTER...WITH A VERY LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE \r\nWINDS OVER THE GULF.  WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE REACHED THE \r\nSOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND WILL SOON BE SPREADING OVER THE \r\nMISSISSIPPI COAST AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING \r\nAREA.  SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS A LARGE RADIUS OF STRONGEST WINDS...THE \r\nPEAK STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WELL \r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE OTHER BIG THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISIDORE IS \r\nPRECIPITATION AND FRESHWATER FLOODING.  NEARLY A FOOT OF RAIN HAS \r\nALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS.  THESE COPIOUS RAINS WILL \r\nSPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES MAINLY NORTHWARD...010/11.  THIS OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE CYCLONE \r\nIS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL \r\nANTICYCLONE.  AFTER LANDFALL...ISIDORE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN CONTINUED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A DRY AIR\r\nINTRUSION AT MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN\r\nPART OF THE CYCLONE.  THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME REMAINING FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 28.1N  90.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 29.7N  89.8W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 33.2N  88.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 37.0N  86.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 41.5N  78.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 51.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":41,"Date":"2002-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nLARGE ISIDORE MADE LANDFALL ON THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST TO THE WEST\r\nOF GRAND ISLE AS A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  AS IT HAS BEEN OBSERVED\r\nIN PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES...JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED...LOOKING VERY\r\nTROPICAL...WITH VERY STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT ISIDORE WAS IN ITS WAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN BUT IT\r\nRAN OUT OF FUEL.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED.  THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  BECAUSE\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS LARGE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER\r\nFOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITHIN THE WARNING\r\nAREA.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 14 KNOTS. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE SOUTWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL\r\nTAKE THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 29.7N  90.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 32.2N  89.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 35.5N  87.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 39.0N  84.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 44.0N  76.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isidore","Adv":42,"Date":"2002-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n\r\nISIDORE HAS MOVED ERRATICALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA DURING THE PAST 6 HR...WITH RADAR FIXES\r\nSUGGESTING A LOOP OCCURRED RIGHT AFTER LANDFALL.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS 985 MB BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM STATIONS IN THE NEW\r\nORLEANS AREA.  BUOY 42007 AND THE DAUPHIN ISLAND C-MAN STATION\r\nCONTINUE TO REPORT 40 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.  BASED ON THE AVAILABLE\r\nDATA...THE WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12.  ISIDORE IS\r\nBETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERLIES\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERLIES...AND THERE IS NO\r\nOBVIOUS REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THESE FORECASTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR JUST THAT SCENARIO...WITH SOME NUDGING TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER AND THE CORE CONVECTION ARE NOW INLAND...SO ISIDORE\r\nSHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM BY 36 HR AND THEN INTENSIFY AS A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM...WHICH\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  BY 72 HR...ISIDORE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN A LARGE NON-TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF MORGAN CITY\r\nAS WINDS HAVE DECREASED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE REMAINING \r\nWARNINGS MAY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 30.7N  89.7W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 32.5N  89.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 35.6N  86.6W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 40.0N  80.6W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 45.0N  70.0W    35 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isidore","Adv":43,"Date":"2002-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ISIDORE\r\nIS NOW 988 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT.  THUS...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED FROM 24 HR AS ISIDORE MERGES WITH AN ONCOMING FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AFTER THE MERGER.\r\n \r\nISIDORE ACCELERATED AND JOGGED TO THE LEFT WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE INITIAL MOTION 005/22.  ISIDORE REMAINS BETWEEN A \r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERLIES OVER THE \r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE \r\nSTORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE FURTHER\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERLIES...AND DESPITE THE \r\nLEFTWARD JOG THERE IS STILL NO OBVIOUS REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THESE \r\nFORECASTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON ISIDORE BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER\r\nIN WASHINGTON DC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 33.3N  89.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 35.5N  88.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 40.4N  83.3W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 44.3N  73.4W    35 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 48.0N  62.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES TODAY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 \r\nMILES EAST OF BERMUDA A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD \r\nCIRCULATION...WITH ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL \r\nBE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT \r\nDOES NOT LOOK TO FAVORABLE...NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE \r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MERGING WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\nAND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAFTER MEANDERING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS NOW \r\nMOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE \r\nNORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH \r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 33.5N  52.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 35.0N  52.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 37.0N  50.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  47.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 47.0N  32.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN HAS \r\nCHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. WHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS \r\nBECOME SHEARED INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...A 17/2206Z QUIKSCAT \r\nOVERPASS ISTILL NDICATED A WELL-DEFINED 180 NMI CIRCULAR WIND FIELD \r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED \r\nON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM \r\nTAFB AND A FEW 30 KT NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/08. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING \r\nSTEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY A HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE \r\nSOUTHEAST.  HOWEVER...AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STEADILY \r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY \r\nACCELERATE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH \r\nA COLD FRONT BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE \r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN BACK ON TRACK \r\nAT 48 HOURS...AND IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE AVN SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A SOME SLIGHT \r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SOME \r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH BUILDS OVER THE \r\nDEPRESSION. THE AVN IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO BRIEFLY DROP BELOW \r\n10 KT IN 12 HOURS...AND THEN INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST \r\nAFTER THAT. THERE WAS ONE 35 KT NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED QUIKSCAT WIND \r\nVECTOR NOTED...SO THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL \r\nSTORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE \r\nCONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER... \r\nTHE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND OF THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL APPEARS TO \r\nBE TOO ROBUST BY BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO NEAR 60 KT IN 60 HOURS \r\nOVER 19C SST WATER. ALSO...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING \r\nANY STRONG DEEPENING DUE TO BAROCLINIC EFFECTS ONCE MERGER OCCURS.\r\n\r\nNOTE...12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT \r\nBASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WIND DATA AND WIND-WAVE FORECAST PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 34.1N  52.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 35.2N  51.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 37.2N  48.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 40.1N  44.3W    30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 44.2N  39.2W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP PDKK AT 03Z AND 06Z INDICATE THAT \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY INTO TROPICAL STORM \r\nJOSEPHINE. SHIP PDKK REPORTED ESTIMATED WINDS OF 37 KT AT 03Z... \r\nWHICH IS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I WINDS OF 35 KT... \r\nAND A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM \r\nTHE TAFB. DUSTING OFF THE OLD METEOROLOGY BOOKS AND MAKING SOME \r\nGRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE 6-7 MB PER 60 NMI PRESSURE \r\nGRADIENT BETWEEN THE 03Z AND 06Z PDKK SHIP OBS ALSO SUPPORTS \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/12. TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE \r\nLIKELY PEAKED SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND IS NOW ON THE DOWNSLIDE. THE \r\nLACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS HAS \r\nALLOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO MAKE A JOG TOWARD THE NORTH UNDER \r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE \r\nOF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...AN \r\nAPPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nSTEERING FLOW AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE JOSEPHINE TO \r\nACCELERATE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN \r\nTIMING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS \r\nWHICH HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE LEFT OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACKS. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST...JOSEPHINE \r\nIS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM \r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND BECOME ABSORBED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IF \r\nNOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE HAS PASSED ITS PEAK AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN...DESPITE THE \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGING THE CYCLONE UP TO 57 KT IN 36 HOURS. \r\nWHILE THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BRIEF BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nCENTER...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTHWEST COMBINING \r\nWITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST AND WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD \r\nPREVENT ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS VERY TIGHT ON THE \r\nEAST SIDE AS JOSEPHINE MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE OF A STRONG SURFACE \r\nHIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...SO THE WIND FIELD ON THE EAST SIDE WILL \r\nREMAIN AROUND 25 TO 30 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DESPITE THE \r\nLACK OF ANY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...NONE OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SUGGEST ANY BAROCLINIC DEEPENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE \r\nJOSEPHINE CIRCULATION MERGES WITH AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE \r\nFRONTAL APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 35.2N  52.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 37.1N  50.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 39.9N  46.5W    25 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 43.2N  41.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER.   \r\nALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS QUITE LIMITED...IT IS \r\nPRESUMED THAT THERE ARE STILL WINDS OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE \r\nON THE STRONGER GRADIENT SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  JOSEPHINE IS \r\nAPPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN.  THE SYSTEM \r\nSHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO.  AS NOTED \r\nEARLIER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY BAROCLINIC \r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION...BUT INDICATE THAT JOSEPHINE WILL BECOME \r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 030/10.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...WITH\r\nACCELERATION...IS FORECAST AS JOSEPHINE IS CARRIED BY THE FLOW ON\r\nTHE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 36.0N  51.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 38.0N  49.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    25 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 45.0N  39.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nA SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED OVER THE CENTER...SO THE\r\nSYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\nJOSEPHINE IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS HOWEVER...AND WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN IN A BAROCLINIC\r\nFASHION...BUT SIMPLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 035/16.\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOSEPHINE SHOULD ACCELERATE ON A NORTHEAST TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING BY THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nIS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 37.2N  49.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 40.0N  47.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 44.0N  43.0W    25 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 49.0N  38.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nANOTHER SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE \r\nCYCLONE IS MAINTAINED AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES \r\nRANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THE DATA T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 40 \r\nKT. GIVEN THAT JOSEPHINE IS NOW ACCELERATING AT MORE THAN 20 KT... \r\nTHE ADDITION OF THE STORM MOTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WOULD \r\nALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM \r\nRATHER THAN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/23. JOSEPHINE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nFEW ADVISORIES.  JOSEPHINE IS NOW ACCELERATING TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF \r\nAN EASTWARD-MOVING FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI TO THE WEST \r\nOF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRONGLY CONVERGENT \r\nABOUT A NORTHEAST TRACK WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS UNTIL MERGER WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCURS. THEREFORE...THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nJOSEPHINE IS APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF 40N \r\nLATITUDE. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER \r\nAHEAD...THE PRESENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND/OR \r\nDISSIPATE IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY \r\nA LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES...NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IS \r\nEXPECTED AFTER MERGER OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 39.0N  47.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 41.8N  45.0W    30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 46.3N  40.6W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nDESPITE COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...DEEP \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY \r\nBASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5...OR 35 \r\nKT...FROM TAFB. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAPID FORWARD SPEED OF 25 \r\nKT...JOSEPHINE COULD EASILY HAVE 40 KT OR HIGHER WINDS IN THE \r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT I DO NOT HAVE GROUND TRUTH TO SUPPORT THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/25. JOSEPHINE HAS CONTINUED TO \r\nREMAIN ON TRACK SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JOSEPHINE \r\nACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL \r\nTROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 150 NMI TO THE WEST. ONLY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS \r\nMODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... \r\nSUCH A TRACK WOULD BE BEHIND THE FRONTAL TROUGH...SO THOSE SOLUTIONS \r\nWERE IGNORED. ABSORPTION BY THE FRONTAL TROUGH SHOULD OCCUR IN 24 \r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND GFDN MODELS.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER \r\nDURING THE PAST 9 HOURS...JOSEPHINE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER A \r\nSHARP SST GRADIENT. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND \r\nMUCH COLDER WATER NORTH OF 43N LATITUDE SHOULD CAUSE THE CONVECTION \r\nTO WEAKEN AND/OR DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. WHILE THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC \r\nSTRENGTHENING AFTER MERGER OCCURS...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP THE \r\nINTENSITY AT AROUND 30 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 40.8N  46.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 43.9N  43.0W    30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 48.7N  38.2W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOSEPHINE HAS MERGED\r\nWITH A COLD FRONT AND HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  IN A BIT OF \r\nA SURPRISE...SHIP C6LV3 REPORTED 50 KT WINDS ABOUT 100 MILES\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  WEAKENING OF THE NOW-EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED UNTIL A LARGER LOW ABSORBS IT IN ABOUT 36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER\r\nON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER IN\r\nWASHINGTON DC UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01\r\nKWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 42.5N  42.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPCIAL\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 46.5N  40.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 53.5N  35.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW THAT FORMED\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION...A\r\nSIGN OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE OF\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AT UPPER LEVELS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A TRMM\r\nOVERPASS AT 1601Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST\r\n100 N MI FROM THE CENTER...WHICH IS RATHER UNLIKE A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE LOW IS THUS UPGRADED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nINSTEAD OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 035/4.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nTRAPPED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES WILL BOUNCE THE DEPRESSION AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN A RATHER ERRATIC FASHION...AND THE VARIOUS\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THIS WITH A VARIETY OF LOOPS AND\r\nHAIRPIN TURNS.  IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT WHICH MODEL HAS THE\r\nBEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nWESTWARD TURN AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS TRACK\r\nIS IN BEST AGREE WITH THE BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS CURRENTLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nCONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER.  THUS...IT IS RATHER\r\nPUZZLING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT WANT TO DEVELOP THIS \r\nLARGE-SCALE HYBRID CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON\r\nTHE PREMISE THAT THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE...WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE TROPICAL WITH TIME.  SHOULD THE\r\nSHEAR REMAIN AS LIGHT AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE SYSTEM\r\nWOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO ACQUIRE FULL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nSOMETIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 28.4N  51.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 29.2N  51.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 31.0N  50.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 32.6N  50.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 33.5N  50.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 33.5N  52.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW THAT IS \r\nCURRENTLY EAST OF BERMUDA IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE \r\nCONVECTION IS GETTING CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  IN FACT...THERE IS AN \r\nESTIMATE FOR A 30 KT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND A 35 KT TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRANSFORMING TO A \r\nTROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KTS BUT \r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN SUB-TROPICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.   \r\n \r\nSINCE THE HISTORY OF THE SYSTEM IS VERY LIMITED...THE THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE LATEST ESTIMATE IS 360/10.  \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE IN \r\nTHE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE \r\nSHORT WAVE TO PASS ON TOWARD THE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE ON THE \r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A BUILDING MID-ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM IS \r\nFORECAST TO COME TO A HALT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN BE DRIVEN \r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS CURRENTLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER.  SEVERAL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MODELS NOW BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE FORCE IN 72 HOURS.  SHOULD THE SHEAR REMAIN AS LIGHT AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE SYSTEM WOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO\r\nACQUIRE FULL TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FOOT SEAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE BASED ON A SHIP \r\nOBSERVATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 30.1N  51.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 31.4N  51.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 32.8N  50.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 34.0N  50.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 34.0N  51.2W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 32.7N  52.7W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO GET\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE.  AN OBSERVATION FROM THE SHIP PGUP LOCATED\r\nJUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION INDICATED 30 KT WINDS.  IT IS\r\nTHEREFORE ASSUMED THAT 35 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CONVECTION\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE HAS INDICATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/8 KT.  MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THE CYCLONE WILL NEARLY COME TO A HALT IN ABOUT \r\n12 TO 18 HOURS.  A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BY-PASS \r\nTHE CYCLONE THIS MORNING...LEAVING IT IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW \r\nBETWEEN TWO 500 MB ANTICYCLONES...ONE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER \r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.  BEYOND 36 HOURS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH \r\nSTRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN A SLOW WEST \r\nTO SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND IS A LITTLE \r\nSLOWER.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOSER TO THE CENTER IT APPEARS \r\nTHAT CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A TRANSITION TO A \r\nTROPICAL SYSTEM. SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT KYLE WILL \r\nREMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 26 TO 27 C WATERS. \r\nTHEREFORE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 30.8N  51.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 31.8N  51.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 32.7N  51.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 33.0N  51.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 32.7N  52.2W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 31.8N  53.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n\r\nKYLE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING INCREASING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE FIRST\r\nINDICATIONS OF A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO DEVELOP ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AT UPPER LEVELS...AND\r\nTHE AMSU INSTRUMENTS ON THE NOAA POLAR ORBITING SATELLITES ARE\r\nSTARTING TO DETECT AN UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER \r\nIS NOT YET INVOLVED ENOUGH WITH THE CONVECTION TO CALL THE SYSTEM \r\nFULLY TROPICAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON\r\nSUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45-50 KT FROM TAFB AND 35-40 KT\r\nFROM AFWA...ALONG WITH A 35 KT TROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE AND A MID-LATITUDE\r\nSHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THERE IS ALSO A\r\nDEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND\r\nHISPANIOLA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING DEVELOPING\r\nBEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD BLOCK THE NORTHWARD MOTION...\r\nWITH THE STORM ACQUIRING A SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION.  THE BIG\r\nQUESTIONS ARE HOW MUCH OF EACH AND WHEN.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nRESEMBLES THE PROVERBIAL SQUASHED SPIDER...WITH MANY VARIATIONS\r\nON LOOPS AND HAIRPIN TURNS.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT KYLE MAY\r\nMAKE SOME KIND OF CLOCKWISE LOOP AS OPPOSED TO THE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE\r\nLOOP MORE PROMINENT IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A SMALL LOOP BEFORE A SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION BEGINS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH\r\nTHAT KYLE WILL NOT GO VERY FAR IN THE NEXT 72 HR...THERE IS LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK.\r\n \r\nKYLE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 26-27C\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS \r\nEXPECTED.  THE STORM WILL LIKELY BECOME FULLY TROPICAL LATER\r\nTODAY OR TONIGHT IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE.  ONE POSSIBLE NEGATIVE\r\nFACTOR IS THAT MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL \r\nTROUGH MAY PERSIST NEAR THE STORM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED\r\nON THE PREMISE THAT THIS WILL ONLY SLOW THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT...\r\nNOT STOP IT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 31.3N  51.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 32.1N  51.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 32.7N  51.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 32.5N  51.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 32.1N  51.9W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  53.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE OVER THE\r\nPAST 6 HR.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTH AND\r\nWEST SIDES OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND ANTICYCLONIC\r\nOUTFLOW IS PRESENT...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nEXPERIMENTAL CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM PENN STATE INDICATE THAT\r\nKYLE MAY HAVE A WEAK WARM CORE IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER AMSU\r\nDATA.  HOWEVER...A 1506Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD IS STILL BROAD WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.  THUS...\r\nKYLE WILL REMAIN A SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 35-40 KT AND 45-50 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND A TROPICAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 020/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES\r\nTO INDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE AND A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THERE IS\r\nALSO A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND\r\nHISPANIOLA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING DEVELOPING\r\nBEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD BLOCK THE NORTHWARD MOTION...\r\nWITH THE STORM EVENTUALLY ACQUIRING A WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD \r\nMOTION.  THE HEADACHES ARE COMING FROM HOW THE CYCLONE WILL GET\r\nFROM THE CURRENT TO THE EVENTUAL MOTION.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO RESEMBLE A SQUASHED SPIDER...WITH MANY DIVERGING \r\nOPINIONS ON THE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR KYLE TO SWING A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD THAN EARLIER FORECAST\r\nAND MAKE A CLOCKWISE LOOP BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE WEST- \r\nSOUTHWEST.  AS NOTED 6 HR AGO...WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT KYLE\r\nWILL NOT GO VERY FAR IN THE NEXT 72 HR...THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN \r\nTHE EXACT TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  KYLE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LIGHT SHEAR \r\nENVIRONMENT OVER 26-27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THUS STEADY \r\nDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE STORM COULD BECOME FULLY TROPICAL\r\nTONIGHT OR SUNDAY.  THERE REMAINS ONE POSSIBLE NEGATIVE FACTOR...A\r\nWEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY PERSIST NEAR THE STORM.  THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THIS WILL ONLY\r\nSLOW THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AND NOT STOP IT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 32.0N  51.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 32.6N  50.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 32.8N  50.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 32.4N  50.6W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 32.0N  51.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N  53.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n \r\nKYLES STRUCTURE HAS BEEN IN A STATUS QUO FOR THE PAST 12 TO 18\r\nHOURS.  A RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS\r\nPARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nTHAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL BROAD WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS.  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT...MOST NOTABLY OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED\r\nON SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB...AND A\r\nTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/2.  THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND ITS\r\nMOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ERRATIC...INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOOPS...OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING THIS AND THEY ALSO FORECAST AN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nALSO...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  KYLE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LIGHT\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 26-27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THUS\r\nSTEADY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE STORM COULD BECOME FULLY\r\nTROPICAL SOMETIME TOMORROW.  THERE REMAINS ONE POSSIBLE NEGATIVE\r\nFACTOR...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY PERSIST NEAR THE STORM.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THIS WILL\r\nONLY SLOW THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AND NOT STOP IT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 32.0N  51.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 32.4N  51.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 32.3N  50.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 32.0N  51.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 31.6N  52.3W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 31.1N  53.7W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING AWAY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  MEANWHILE...NEW CONVECTION HAS APPEARED ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSFORMING\r\nTO A TROPICAL ENTITY.  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT...MOST\r\nNOTABLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...SO THE UPPER LEVEL APPEARS TO\r\nREMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT\r\nBASED ON SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE\r\nALMOST STATIONARY AND THAT IS WHAT THE INITIAL MOTION WILL BE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLOW AND SOMEWHAT ERRATIC MOTION\r\n...INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOOPS...OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN \r\nAN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER IN \r\nTHE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IF \r\nTHE SYSTEM MAKES THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL SYSTEM THEN IT CAN \r\nSTILL BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 32.1N  51.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 32.1N  51.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 31.9N  51.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 31.7N  52.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N  53.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 30.0N  55.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SURPRISED US THIS MORNING WITH A CENTER A \r\nLITTLE BIT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THIS \r\nDOES NOT MEAN A MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUT IT IS PROBABLY \r\nRELATED TO REFORMATION WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS IS COMMON \r\nIN SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE \r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH \r\nWHICH EVENTUALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN \r\nWEST.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL TODAY AND \r\nTHE CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS FROM PENN STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATES THAT \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS WARM...IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET. IT IS KEPT AT \r\nSUBTROPICAL AT THIS TIME. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATE AS THE \r\nSYSTEM MOVES TOWARD WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAY \r\nEVENTUALLY REACH HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 33.0N  49.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 33.0N  50.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 33.0N  50.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  52.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  53.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  55.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER\r\nTHE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE MORE DETACHED FROM THE\r\nFRONTAL ZONE.  IN OTHER WORDS AT THIS TIME...IT IS MORE TROPICAL\r\nTHAN SUBTROPICAL AT THIS TIME.  THIS IS ALSO BASED ON THE CYCLONE\r\nPHASE ANALYSIS FROM PENN STATE UNIVERSITY AND FROM AMSU DATA THAT\r\nSHOWS A SYSTEM WITH A RELATIVELY WARM CORE.  THEREFORE...IT IS NOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT IT\r\nIS ON THE HIGH SIDE.  HOWEVER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND\r\nKYLE MAY EVENTUALLY REACH HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND LITTLE KOTION\r\nIS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER KYLE SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD SOUTHWEST AND THE WEST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 33.2N  49.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 33.0N  49.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  50.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 32.5N  52.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  53.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  55.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAD BEEN DRIFTING EAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BUT HAS BECOME\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE FORECASTED\r\nPUSH FROM THE NORTH FROM THE BUILDING ANTICYCLONE IS BEGINNING AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS MOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GFS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KYLE HAS WEAKENED A BIT.  T-NUMBERS \r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 2.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nDECREASED TO 35 KTS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS TROPICAL AND \r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING INFLOW AS WELL AS A PUSH TOWARD WARMER \r\nWATER...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 33.1N  49.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 32.6N  49.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 31.9N  50.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  52.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  53.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 29.5N  55.4W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT KYLE IS NOW\r\nDRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW THE PUSH FROM THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS MOVED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE GFS.\r\n\r\nA BURST OF CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35 KTS.  SOME NORTHERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.  THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL BOTH STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM WITH TIME AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DOES LIKEWISE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 32.9N  49.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 32.4N  50.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 31.7N  51.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 30.8N  52.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 30.0N  54.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 29.0N  56.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WHILE \r\nDRIFTING TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 35 KT \r\nIS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY GIVEN THE RECENT BURST OF  \r\nCONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE \r\nPAST 3 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 210/05...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT \r\nKYLE WILL BEGIN A SOUTHWEST MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS \r\nINDICATED BY ALL OF THE NHC MODELS. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON \r\nTHE EAST SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nCENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP KYLE ON A SLOW SOUTHWEST \r\nTRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION \r\nTO OCCUR...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY HOSTILE \r\nEITHER. SINCE KYLE WILL BE LOSING LATITUDE AND MOVING OVER WARMER \r\nSSTS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT KYLE COULD BECOME A MINIMAL \r\nTROPICAL STORM BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL \r\nAGAIN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 32.1N  49.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 31.6N  50.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  50.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.0N  52.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 29.0N  53.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 28.1N  54.6W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS PERSISTED. THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE \r\nREMAINS AT T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. \r\nHOWEVER...AN AMSU INTENSITY 23/1626Z INDICATED A PRESSURE OF 979.1 \r\nMB. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS PROBABLY TOO LOW...THE ANALYSIS DID \r\nINDICATE A GOOD WARM CORE ALOFT THAT WAS CONTINUING TO GET WARMER. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 210/05...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION \r\nTHAT KYLE WILL START A SOUTHWEST MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. \r\nKYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST \r\nORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP \r\nKYLE ON A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE \r\nPERIOD. THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON \r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION...AND THE INITIAL FORECAST WAS ONLY SHIFTED \r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR  \r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER \r\nTHAT...UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 31.8N  49.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 31.3N  50.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 29.6N  52.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 28.9N  53.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 28.1N  54.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  56.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 230/05.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nREMAINS THE SAME.  KYLE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA\r\nWHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THERE IS EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON THIS GENERAL MOTION...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nAS KYLE HAS MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED \r\nTO THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS \r\nTHAT THE SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING AND THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE AN \r\nOPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY.  AT THIS TIME T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM \r\nTAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS MAINTAINED.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE \r\nPERIOD. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 31.3N  50.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.8N  51.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.8N  52.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.7N  54.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 28.0N  56.1W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 28.0N  57.4W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 220/05.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nREMAINS THE SAME.  KYLE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA\r\nWHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THERE IS EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON THIS GENERAL MOTION...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED ENOUGH FOR KYLE TO GET BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO MOVE NEAR OR UNDER\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS LOOKING PRETTY\r\nIMPRESSIVE.  THE T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM\r\nSAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.  NOW THAT WE\r\nHAVE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS FORECAST WHICH CALLS\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND MAKES THE SYSTEM A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 30.8N  50.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 30.2N  51.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 29.1N  53.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 28.2N  55.1W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 27.8N  56.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.2N  57.9W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 215/07.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  KYLE IS \r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST \r\nORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP \r\nKYLE MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER THAT AND SLOW IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED. THERE IS EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AMONG ALL OF THE NHC \r\nMODELS ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE AVN/GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nMODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\nAND BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING TO FORM. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS \r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND KYLE WILL \r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER...AS HIGH AS 28.5C. THEREFORE... \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY AS EARLY AS \r\nTOMORROW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 30.3N  51.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 29.6N  52.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 28.6N  53.8W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 27.9N  55.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.5N  56.6W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  57.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE\r\nIS DEVELOPING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND\r\nEAST...BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 230/05.  KYLE IS HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THAT SAME GENERAL\r\nDIRECTION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA.\r\nTHERE REMAINS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC TRACK MODELS\r\nON TAKING KYLE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN\r\nTURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AFTER\r\nTHAT. BY 72 HOURS...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND\r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN STALL AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND\r\nTROPCIAL CYCLONE LILI LOCATED WELL TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY\r\nWEAK STEERING FLOW...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED MAY\r\nOCCUR.\r\n \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND TOPS\r\nHAVE COOLED TO -60C JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND KYLE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER SSTS. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE INNER-CORE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE KYLE\r\nTO START WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 30.1N  51.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 29.4N  52.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 28.7N  54.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 28.3N  55.1W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  56.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  56.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS GONE THROUGH SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE PAST 6 \r\nHOURS. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE INITIALLY GOT SMALLER IN LENGTH BUT \r\nRECENTLY HAS WRAPPED AROUND ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE AND IS NOW \r\nBACK TO ITS ORIGINAL VALUE. THUS...THE T NUMBERS REMAIN AT \r\n3.5...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 \r\nKTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/06.  KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THAT SAME GENERAL\r\nDIRECTION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA.\r\nTHERE REMAINS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC TRACK MODELS\r\nON TAKING KYLE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 30 HOURS AND THEN\r\nTURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AFTER\r\nTHAT.  BY 72 HOURS...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND\r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN STALL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.  DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING FLOW...SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED MAY OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS AND KYLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER SSTS.  GIVEN THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...KYLE COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...\r\nINCREASING NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE\r\nCYCLONE AND CAUSE KYLE TO START WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 29.9N  52.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 29.5N  53.4W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 29.0N  54.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 28.5N  56.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 27.9N  57.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.4N  58.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS REMAINED IN A STATUS QUO FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS.  IT STILL\r\nHAS SEVEN TENTHS BANDING AND THE T NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.5...FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KTS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TAKEN ON A MORE\r\nWESTERLY DIRECTION AND IS NOW MOVING AT 260/12.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY\r\nBE SHORT LIVED AS THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS...BRING THE SYSTEM TO A SNAILS PACE BY 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THIS MOTION REMAINS THE\r\nSAME...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON THE EAST SIDE\r\nOF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR\r\nBERMUDA.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS AND KYLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER SSTS.  THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION IS TRYING TO\r\nWRAP ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND IF IT DOES THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nPROBABLY BECOME A HURRICANE.  BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING\r\nNORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CYCLONE AND\r\nCAUSE KYLE TO START WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 29.6N  54.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 29.3N  56.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  57.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  58.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 27.7N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  59.4W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN EYE FEATURE NOW EVIDENT \r\nIN SATELLITE IMAGERY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...BUT WITH THE BANDING IS JUST BELOW THE REQUIRED TEN TENTHS \r\nNEEDED FOR A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOWER 245/07. KYLE HAS BEEN \r\nINTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW ROTATING EASTWARD AROUND THE \r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS LOW HAS SEPARATED FROM KYLE AND THAT \r\nPROBABLY EXPLAINS THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN WEST-SOUTHWEST TO \r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE \r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE \r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS REMAINING FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR \r\nBEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE \r\nCYCLONE...AFTER WHICH...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 29.2N  54.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 28.7N  56.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  57.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 27.7N  58.3W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 27.3N  58.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N  59.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE IS NOW A HURRICANE BASED ON A BANDING EYE...A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0...OR 65 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND ALSO\r\nA 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.2...OR 69 KT. THE\r\nONLY REASON THE INTENSITY WAS NOT INCREASED TO 70 KT IS DUE THE EYE\r\nHAVING BECOME CIRRUS COVERED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT KYLE MAY BE PEAKING. IF THE CIRRUS THINS SOME DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN THE INTENSITY CAN BE INCREASED TO 70 KT ON \r\nTHE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LATEST SATELLITE\r\nFIXES SHOW THAT KYLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...WHILE THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE IS STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AFTER\r\nTHAT WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SEEMS VERY\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE\r\nLOCATED BETWEEN KYLE AND ISIDORE TO ITS WEST. THE RIDGE LOCATED\r\nBETWEEN KYLE AND LILI LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD ACT TO\r\nDECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nKYLE STILL HAS ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS REMAINING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nBEGINS TO ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE. GIVEN THAT THE LATEST ODT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALREADY NEAR 70 KT...THIS INTENSITY SEEMS\r\nWITHIN RANGE...ASSUMING THE EYE CLEARS OUT AGAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 28.9N  55.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 28.4N  56.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  58.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 27.5N  58.4W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N  58.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 26.5N  58.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE REMAINS A HURRICANE BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T4.0...OR 65 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  KYLE STILL HAS\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS REMAINING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO\r\nOCCUR BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO ADVERSELY\r\nAFFECT THE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/09. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LATEST SATELLITE\r\nFIXES SHOW THAT KYLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...WHILE THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE IS STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD AFTER\r\nTHAT WITH A MARKED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS MOTION SEEMS VERY\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE\r\nLOCATED BETWEEN KYLE AND ISIDORE TO ITS WEST. THE RIDGE LOCATED\r\nBETWEEN KYLE AND LILI LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD ACT TO\r\nDECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 28.6N  57.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.3N  58.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 27.8N  59.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 27.4N  60.9W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  61.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 26.6N  60.7W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n\r\nKYLE HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND ITS\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  KYLE STILL HAS\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS REMAINING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO\r\nOCCUR BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO ADVERSELY\r\nAFFECT THE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LATEST SATELLITE\r\nFIXES SHOW THAT KYLE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...WHILE THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE IS STILL TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A MEAN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE MODELS \r\nSUGGEST THAT KYLE WILL SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO DRIFT AND MEANDER \r\nSOUTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 28.1N  58.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 27.7N  59.5W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 27.3N  60.9W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 26.9N  61.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 26.5N  61.4W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 26.3N  61.2W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE OR FORECAST \r\nREASONING FOR KYLE.  KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY DURING THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 27.8N  58.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 27.3N  59.7W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  60.5W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.7N  61.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 26.0N  61.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SIGNS THAT KYLE HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL \r\nSOON BEGIN A DECLINE.  THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE \r\nPAST HOUR OR TWO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLIES \r\nAT RELATIVELY HIGH LEVELS ARE ABOUT TO UNDERCUT KYLES OUTFLOW LAYER. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 77 KT...ALTHOUGH THE T NUMBER \r\nFROM SAB IS NOW DOWN TO T4.0.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT \r\n75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/7.  KYLE IS LOCATED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL \r\nRIDGES TO ITS NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.  FOR THE MOMENT...THE FORMER \r\nRIDGE IS PROVIDING A STRONGER STEERING CURRENT AND IS TAKING KYLE TO \r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS ABOUT TO GET RATHER \r\nMORE COMPLICATED...HOWEVER.   THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER NORTHERLIES \r\nWILL TURN TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLIES.  THIS WOULD PUSH KYLE MORE TO \r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST...BUT ONLY IF THE VORTEX WERE ABLE TO HOLD \r\nTOGETHER.  AT LOWER LEVELS...THE OVERALL STEERING COLLAPSES AS THE \r\nRIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD.  MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH FORECAST TRACKS ALL OVER THE DIAL. \r\nONLY THE DEEP-LAYER BAM HAS A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  I BELIEVE THE SHEAR WILL BE TOO STRONG TO TAKE \r\nTHIS SOLUTION SERIOUSLY.  THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE \r\nSYSTEM GETS SHEARED OFF AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS LEFT \r\nBEHIND IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO \r\nREFLECTED BELOW.\r\n\r\nWITH THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER WINDS ABOUT TO IMPINGE ON KYLE...THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND ROUGHLY IN ACCORD WITH THE \r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR \r\nSHOULD LESSEN AND KYLE WOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 27.6N  59.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  60.2W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 26.5N  61.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 26.5N  61.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 26.5N  61.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS REMAINED STEADY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH NO APPARANT \r\nSIGN OF ANY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM...YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT 75 KT...BUT THEY ARE STARTING TO CREEP \r\nDOWNWARD SLIGHTLY. HIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER \r\nVAPOR IMAGERY BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW LAYER TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/05.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE \r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED \r\nBETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER...THE STEERING FLOW \r\nAT THE LOW-LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FLAT AND WEAK...SO A SLOW \r\nSTEADY WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON \r\nTHIS MOTION THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY \r\nAFTER THAT. FOR THAT REASON...KYLE IS SLOWED TO A MERE CRAWL AFTER \r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON KYLE IN \r\nABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS...SO SLOW STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD EVEN THOUGH KYLE WILL REMAIN OVER 28.5 C SSTS. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO \r\nWEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND KYLE COULD BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN SOME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 27.4N  59.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 27.1N  60.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 26.9N  61.1W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 26.8N  61.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 26.6N  62.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 26.5N  62.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":27,"Date":"2002-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n \r\nUPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE UPON \r\nKYLE RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE OVERALL STORM ENVELOPE IS BECOMING ELONGATED EAST-WEST. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 65 KNOTS \r\nFROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE 34 KNOT WIND AND 12 \r\nFOOT SEA RADII BASED ON RECENT AMSU DATA AND 0600 UTC SHIP REPORTS.\r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/05. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS \r\nLOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE \r\nENSEMBLES...NOGAPS...UKMET AND NOGAPS TURN KYLE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP WHILE THE \r\nAVN STANDS ALONE IN IN TURNING KYLE TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST \r\nIN A CYCLONIC LOOP.  GIVEN SUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE OUTPUT...THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK WITH KYLE CREEPING WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THEIR TOLL \r\nON KYLE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO \r\nRELAX...ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 27.0N  60.2W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.7N  60.7W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 26.5N  61.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 26.3N  61.8W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 26.1N  62.1W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 26.0N  62.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":28,"Date":"2002-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS BEEN DOING AN ADMIRABLE JOB IN FIGHTING OFF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nDRY AIR DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF KYLE...PROBABLY THE RESULT OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DESCENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nUNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SHEAR TENDENCY CHARTS\r\nFROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER\r\nKYLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nALSO...THE LOCALLY PRODUCED DRY AIR NORTH OF KYLE MAY START TO GET\r\nADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION AT LOWER LEVELS.  AS A RESULT...A\r\nWEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION LATER IN ROUGH AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/4.  KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF\r\nA STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  A SECOND RIDGE ALONG 17N EXTENDS\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND\r\nKYLE IS TRAPPED IN BETWEEN.  WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY PUSH\r\nIMMINENT...KYLE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BERMUDA/U.S.  RIDGE WILL SLIDE OR\r\nBUILD WESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FURTHER.\r\nHOWEVER...TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS VERY POOR AGREEMENT AFTER 36\r\nHOURS.  THE UKMET RECURVES KYLE INTO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS\r\nOFFSHORE THE U.S.  EAST COAST IN 72 HOURS...WHILE THE AVN TAKES KYLE\r\nON A MORE SOUTHERLY ROUTE AND MISSES THE TROUGH.  ONLY THE BAM\r\nMODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT MOVE TOWARD THE BAHAMAS IN THE THREE TO\r\nFIVE DAY TIME FRAME.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH ANTICIPATES KYLE BEING ABANDONED BY ANY\r\nAPPRECIABLE STEERING FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 26.9N  60.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.8N  61.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 26.6N  61.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 26.5N  62.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  62.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":29,"Date":"2002-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n \r\nSHEAR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL ON KYLE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING AND KYLE IS BECOMING MORE ELONGATED\r\nEAST-WEST.  DRY AIR TO THE NORTH OF KYLE IS ALSO BEING ADVECTED INTO\r\nTHE CYCLONE CORE.  A MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM 1247Z THIS MORNING\r\nSHOWED THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER HAD BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 15 NM\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER BELOW.  DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND\r\nKGWC HAVE COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 70 KT.  THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS UNTIL THE SHEAR LESSENS.  AT THAT\r\nPOINT...KYLE WOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RE-STRENGTHEN.\r\n \r\nKYLE IS SLOWING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/3.  THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  KYLE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEAST\r\nSIDE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  A SECOND RIDGE ALONG 17N\r\nEXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC TO THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES...AND KYLE IS TRAPPED IN BETWEEN.  AS LONG AS KYLE IS A\r\nCOHERENT SYSTEM VERTICALLY....IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTINUE SLOWLY\r\nTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...PUSHED ALONG MOSTLY\r\nBY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE BERMUDA/U.S.  RIDGE WILL SLIDE OR BUILD WESTWARD\r\nAND WEAKEN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT FURTHER.  THE UKMET AND AVN HAVE\r\nSWAPPED SOLUTIONS...WITH THE AVN NOW TAKING KYLE EASTWARD AND THE\r\nUKMET NOW WESTWARD.  THE AVN TRACKER MAY BE FOLLOWING NEW BAROCLINIC\r\nDEVELOPMENT EASTWARD...HOWEVER.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH ANTICIPATES KYLE BEING\r\nABANDONED BY ANY APPRECIABLE STEERING FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 26.9N  60.9W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 26.8N  61.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 26.7N  61.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 26.7N  62.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 26.7N  62.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 26.7N  63.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":30,"Date":"2002-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY \r\nSHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON KYLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL \r\nCENTER AND ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE \r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES...DUE TO DVORAK WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS...REMAIN 77 KT FROM \r\nTAFB AND SAB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nWILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/4 KT.  KYLE REMAINS TRAPPED \r\nBETWEEN A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA \r\nAND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A SECOND RIDGE ALONG 17N ACROSS \r\nTHE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  KYLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR \r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE FORECAST IS \r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS \r\nDISCUSSION... THE AVN CONTINUES TO TAKE KYLE EASTWARD AFTER 36 \r\nHOURS...AS THE AVN TRACKER APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWING BAROCLINIC \r\nDEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS \r\nFOR STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY \r\nSHEAR CONTINUES.  THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND \r\nKYLE MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RE-STRENGTHEN.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...BASED ON A RECENT \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION WELL SOUTH OF \r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 26.6N  61.4W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N  61.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 26.4N  62.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 26.4N  63.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 26.4N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 26.3N  64.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":31,"Date":"2002-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE PERIOD WERE NOT HELPFUL IN \r\nDETERMINING A CENTER FIX FOR KYLE. HOWEVER A 0657 UTC TRMM PASS\r\nPROVIDED THE ADDITIONAL DETAIL FOR AN ACCURATE FIX AT SYNOPTIC \r\nTIME. THE TRMM DATA ALSO INDICATES A SYSTEM THAT IS STILL \r\nVERTICALLY ALIGNED. IN ADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES KYLE IS \r\nSTRUGGLING VALIANTLY AGAINST THE HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT WITH \r\nDECENT OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KT FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER 250/6 KT. \r\nKYLE IS TRAPPED BETWEEN A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED \r\nBETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND A SECOND RIDGE \r\nALONG 17N ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT \r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING \r\nMECHANISM. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY ALL OVER THE \r\nCOMPASS WITH 72 HOUR POSITIONS RANGING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN \r\nBAHAMAS TO 30N60W. ONCE AGAIN THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER TAKING KYLE \r\nEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...AS THE GFS TRACKER APPEARS TO BE \r\nFOLLOWING BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT FARTHER EAST. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION AND MOVES \r\nKYLE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO ALONG 66W BY 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS\r\nFOR SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES.  THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND\r\nKYLE MAY REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT EXTEND TO \r\nWITHIN 120 NM OF BERMUDA. GIVEN THIS AND THE SLOW MOTION OF KYLE\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD LARGE SWELLS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA \r\nAS EARLY AS LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 26.2N  62.3W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 26.1N  63.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 26.1N  63.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N  64.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 26.0N  65.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  66.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":32,"Date":"2002-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON KYLE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME DISORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  INDEED...THE CENTER MAY BECOME EXPOSED\r\nIN A FEW HOURS.  SINCE THE SHEARING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RELAXATION OF THE UPPER\r\nFLOW OVER KYLE...SO A SLOW RE-STRENGTHENING BACK TO MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IS SHOWN IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A WESTWARD DRIFT.  KYLE IS SITUATED ON \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THE NCEP \r\nGLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THIS ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADING WESTWARD SOMEWHAT \r\nIN 2-3 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE...WITH THE NCEP \r\nGFS CONTINUING TO SHOW AN EASTWARD MOTION THAT APPEARS TO BE \r\nSPURIOUS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND \r\nSHOWS A VERY SLOW...GENERALLY WESTWARD...MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 26.3N  63.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 26.2N  64.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 26.2N  64.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 26.1N  65.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.1N  66.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N  66.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":33,"Date":"2002-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n \r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPOSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KYLE\r\nLATE THIS MORNING.  THE EXPOSED CENTER BEGAN TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST END OF\r\nA MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER\r\nON THE TRACK OF KYLE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH THE GFS\r\nMOVING KYLE EASTWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TAKE KYLE ON A\r\nWEST OR SOUTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THIS GUIDANCE...AND MOVES KYLE VERY SLOWLY IN A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE GFS 200 MB FORECAST SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR RELAXING AND \r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING OVER KYLE...SO WE EXPECT KYLE TO BEGIN \r\nRE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF \r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 26.8N  63.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 26.9N  64.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N  65.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 27.0N  65.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 27.0N  66.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.0N  66.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":34,"Date":"2002-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS THE LOW \r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS \r\nSEPARATING FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  LATEST SATELLITE DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS \r\nEVEN LOWER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 2224 UTC INDICATED 40 KT \r\nUNCONTAMINATED WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON ALL THIS \r\nINFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE BROUGHT DOWN TO 45 KT.  \r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF BERMUDA WHICH IS HELPING TO \r\nPRODUCE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO MOVE \r\nEAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE \r\nBECOMES ORIENTED EAST TO WEST NEAR THE SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW \r\nFOR THE SHEAR TO DECREASE SOME OVER KYLE.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR \r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH SLOW \r\nINTENSIFICATION TO 60 KT IN 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/5...A LITTLE FASTER THAN \r\nEARLIER TODAY.  KYLE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW NORTHWEST TO \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE STEERING \r\nFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES TO \r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND A HIGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. \r\nCOAST.  NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT ON THE \r\nTRACK...WITH THE GFS MODEL AGAIN BEING THE OUTLIER AS IT MOVES KYLE \r\nEASTWARD.  OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE \r\nTHE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT A DAY OR SO...THEN \r\nTURN IT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...\r\nAPPARENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE DEVELOPING HIGH TO ITS \r\nNORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE \r\nSLOWER GFDL SOLUTION. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 27.3N  63.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 27.9N  64.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 28.2N  65.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 27.9N  65.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 27.5N  65.7W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  67.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":35,"Date":"2002-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL\r\nREMOVED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE DOWN...NOW IN THE 35-45 KT RANGE...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS\r\nYIELDING 30-35 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF BERMUDA...WHICH IS HELPING TO\r\nPRODUCE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO\r\nMOVE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED EAST TO WEST NEAR THE SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR THE SHEAR TO DECREASE SOME OVER KYLE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS...WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KT IN 72 HOURS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND A HIGH DEVELOPS OFF\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST U.S.  COAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS UNSETTLED AND THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE PLOT RESEMBLES THE CRAB NEBULA.  THE NCEP/GFS SPLITS\r\nKYLE IN TWO...TAKING A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM QUICKLY WESTWARD\r\nAND ENTRAINING IT INTO LILI IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...MEANWHILE...IS LEFT BEHIND AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD\r\nAFTER THE 500 MB RIDGE SHIFTS WEST AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SWEEPS\r\nINTO THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET...IN A COMPLETE FLIP FROM\r\nITS PREVIOUS RUN...TAKES KYLE...ALL OF IT...NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GFDL\r\nAND THE BAM MODELS TAKE KYLE SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST TAKES KYLE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\nIN DOING SO IT IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS AND UKMET.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 27.4N  64.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 27.5N  65.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 27.5N  65.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 27.3N  65.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N  66.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 26.5N  66.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":36,"Date":"2002-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED OVER NIGHT DUE TO \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF \r\nHOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REGENERATED NEAR AND SOUTH THE CENTER \r\nOF CIRCULATION...WHICH IN FACT IS VERY WELL DEFINED. \r\nTHEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. \r\nMODELS HAS BEEN INSISTING THAT SHEAR WILL RELAX AND MAYBE THIS \r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION COULD BE THE BEGINNING. BECAUSE \r\nTHERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX COMPLETELY...NO \r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF \r\nIT DOES...KYLE COULD EVENTUALLY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS \r\nINDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND KYLE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY \r\nOR DRIFTING WESTWARD. THE FACT THAT THE MODELS SUGGEST TRACK IN ALL \r\nDIRECTIONS IN THE SHORT TERM IS AN INDICATION OF WEAK STEERING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND \r\nKEEP KYLE OF A VERY SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE OUTLIER BUT THE MOST INTERESTING MODEL IS THE NOGAPS. IT \r\nMAINTAINS KYLE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND BRINGS A STRONG TROPICAL \r\nSTORM OR A HURRICANE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA \r\nIN THE LONG RANGE. THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 27.7N  64.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 27.7N  65.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 27.6N  65.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 27.5N  66.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.0N  66.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  66.7W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":37,"Date":"2002-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED ONCE AGAIN WITH THE \r\nCONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT \r\n40 KNOTS. MODELS ARE FINALLY IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND NO LONGER BRING \r\nKYLE TO THE WEST OR SOUTHEST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE ATLANTIC \r\nAND CARRIES KYLE WITH IT. THIS INCLUDES THE NOGAPS WHICH NOW CHANGED \r\nITS TUNE AND MOVES KYLE EASTWARD AT THE LONG RANGE. \r\n\r\nWITH THIS CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES KYLE VERY LITTLE \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN CALL FOR AN EASTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHIS NEW TRACK BRINGS KYLE TO AN AREA OF HIGHER SHEAR SO... \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 28.5N  64.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 28.5N  64.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 29.0N  65.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 29.0N  65.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 29.5N  64.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 29.5N  61.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":38,"Date":"2002-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KYLE REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...CIRRUS IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT\r\nHAS PLAGUED KYLE IS DIMINISHING.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWING THAT THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CAUSING\r\nTHE SHEAR HAS MOVED EAST OF KYLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 40 KT\r\nIS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  A DRIFTING BUOY WEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED\r\n1005.4 MB AT 29/2000Z...SO THE 1002 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE LOOKS \r\nREASONABLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/5.  SURFACE AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES\r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE EAST OF KYLE EXTENDS TO THE SURFACE...WHILE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE A COLD FRONT JUST NORTH\r\nOF BERMUDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE FRONT.  THE\r\nLATTER FEATURE SUGGESTS THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD SOON\r\nSTOP.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES WILL ENCROACH ON KYLE AND PRODUCE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT \r\nTO THE MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD\r\nBETWEEN NORTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION TO BECOME A\r\nSLOW EASTWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL\r\nBE A 24-36 HR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KYLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BEFORE\r\nTHE WESTERLIES REACHE THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THE FIRST 12 HR ON THE PREMISE THAT IT\r\nWILL TAKE THAT LONG FOR THE STORM TO RE-ORGANIZE...THEN CALLS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 50 KT BY 36 HR.  THE INTENSITY BEYOND THAT TIME\r\nIS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR COULD BE BALANCED\r\nBY SOME FORCING FROM THE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 28.9N  64.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 29.3N  64.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 29.5N  64.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 29.5N  63.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 29.5N  62.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 29.5N  60.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":39,"Date":"2002-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HR AND HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nTHE PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY\r\nTHE HIGHER CLOUD AND IS HARD TO FIND...MAKING BOTH THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES RATHER TRICKY.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT UNTIL\r\nSOME BETTER DATA COMES IN ABOUT JUST HOW WELL ORGANIZED KYLE IS...\r\nLIKE DAYLIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 010/5.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO EITHER THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED\r\nSOUTHEAST OF KYLE...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS TO THE NORTH WITH\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING BEHIND IT.  THIS SHOULD PATTERN SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR KYLE UNTIL THE WESTERLIES FORCE\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SOUTHWARD AFTER 24-36 HR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO TURN EASTWARD AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH\r\nTHE PERIOD AS THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SLOWLY ERODES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD MOTION THAN\r\nTHE AVN/GFS MODEL.  IT BEST AGREES WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 24 HR...\r\nAND THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP IS LIKELY THE RESULT.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS INDICATE KYLE WILL HAVE 24 HR OR SO TO STRENGTHEN\r\nBEFORE THE WESTERLIES ENCROACH UPON IT AND AGAIN INCREASE THE SHEAR.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HR...\r\nFOLLOWED A GRADUAL WEAKENING BY 72 HR AS THE SHEAR INCREASES TO 30\r\nKT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AVN/GFS AND UKMET BOTH GRADUALLY \r\nMERGE KYLE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE PERIOD...MAKING IT \r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR.  SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE FRONT\r\nIS RATHER WEAK AT THE MOMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN\r\nTOWARD WEAKENING THROUGH SHEAR RATHER THAN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 29.3N  64.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 29.5N  64.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 29.5N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 29.4N  62.9W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 29.2N  61.9W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 29.0N  59.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":40,"Date":"2002-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT USING\r\nCONTINUITY AND LOW CLOUD LINES...IT APPEARS THAT IT IS LOCATED WELL\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL\r\nSUPPORT 40 KNOT WINDS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE...THE\r\nOCEAN IS WARM AND SHEAR COULD RELAX...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INDICATE SO.\r\nHOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD KYLE SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS THAT KYLE\r\nHAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BUT SOON IT WILL\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nTHAT ISLAND.  THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF KYLE AND A\r\nCOLD FRONT IS ALREADY CAUSING GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN \r\nBERMUDA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 29.8N  64.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.0N  64.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  63.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.0N  62.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  60.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":41,"Date":"2002-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHIS IS AN UNUSUAL AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nAND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE BECAME\r\nELONGATED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST.  THE NORTHEAST PORTION IS BECOMING\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST RAPIDLY.\r\nIT WILL MONITORED FOR GENERATION.  THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION\r\nDEVELOPED CONVECTION AND IS PARTIALLY SEPARATED FROM THE FRONT.\r\nTHIS REFORMATION IS CONSISTENT WITH WIND REPORTS FROM THE BUOY 41652\r\nAND DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THIS SOUTHWESTERN\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH IS NOW CONSIDERED TO BE TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nKYLE...IS POORLY DEFINED AND ITS FUTURE INTENSITY OR TRACK IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.  AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING LITTLE OR WITH A\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT BUT IT CAN EASILY DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF KYLE\r\nSURVIVES...IT MAY BE STEERED WEST-OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY STRONG\r\nHIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...AS INDICATED BY THE BAM MODELS AND\r\nLBAR.  THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOLUTION WAS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF RUN\r\nFROM YESTERDAY...AND EVEN THE GFS CARRIED A SMALL PIECE OF VORTICITY\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL TAKING THE SYSTEM\r\nTOWARD THE EAST BUT WE WILL SEE IF THIS FORECAST MOTION PERSISTS IN\r\nTHE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL RUN WITH THE RELOCATION.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...THE BERMUDA WEATHER \r\nSERVICE HAS OPTED TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 27.5N  67.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 27.5N  67.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 27.3N  67.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 27.0N  67.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 27.0N  67.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":42,"Date":"2002-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n \r\nOVERALL APPEARANCE OF KYLE SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THIS AFTERNOON. A \r\nRECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SURFACE \r\nCENTER...ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO SHEAR THIS \r\nCONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND \r\nSLIGHTLY LESS THAN BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nAT THIS TIME...KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION AS IT DRIFTS \r\nVERY SLOWLY SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN A WEAK STEERING \r\nENVIRONMENT. DUE TO CONTINUED DIFFICULTY IN PINPOINTING THE \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...BOTH FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY REMAIN A BIT \r\nUNCERTAIN. GFDL IS SOLE DYNAMIC MODEL INDICATING A WESTWARD \r\nMOTION...ALBEIT VERY SLOW...THROUGH 72 HOURS. BOTH UKMET AND AVN \r\nBOTH INDICATING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION WHILE THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL \r\nINDICATES A SOUTHWARD DRIFT TO THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\nSHOULD THE CIRCULATION BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN THE VERTICAL..KYLE \r\nWOULD LIKELY TRACK WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST BENEATH A STRONG MIDDLE \r\nLEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. OTHERWISE THE SYSTEM COULD BE EXPECTED TO \r\nREMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS STEERING FOR IT...WILL REMAIN WEAK. \r\n\r\nDUE TO THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...THE BERMUDA \r\nWEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 27.4N  67.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 27.3N  67.2W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 27.1N  67.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 27.0N  67.6W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N  67.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 27.0N  67.8W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":43,"Date":"2002-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS IS \r\nSLOW WESTWARD...THE UKMET IS SLOW NORTHWARD AND THE GFDL AND GFS ARE \r\nSLOW AND NOT AS SLOW EASTWARD.  IN THE FACE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY... \r\nTHE MOTION WILL BE FORECAST AS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 72 \r\nHOUR.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS \r\nMENTIONED ABOVE.\r\n\r\nTHE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT APPEARED YESTERDAY IS WARMING AND \r\nREMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER AS \r\nGUESTIMATED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND THE \r\nFORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS \r\nNEARLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DIAGNOSES THE VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR AT 17 KNOTS OR HIGHER THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 28.5N  66.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 28.5N  66.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 29.0N  66.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":44,"Date":"2002-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STRONGER\r\nTHAN EXPECTED.  TENACIOUS KYLE HAS MAINTAINED AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO SHEAR.  IN\r\nFACT...DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT KYLE IS A TROPICAL STORM AND\r\nLATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND IS KEPT\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD LEAD\r\nTO STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nEXPANDS EASTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS LONG RANGE FORECAST POSITIONS\r\nIN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...BERMUDA HAS OPTED TO\r\nCONTINUE WITH A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 28.0N  67.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 27.8N  67.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N  67.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N  68.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":45,"Date":"2002-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n  \r\nKYLE HAS A WELL DEFINED AND LARGE CIRCULATION BUT CONTINUES TO \r\nSUFFER FROM NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE \r\nENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION \r\nCONTINUOSLY. SURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT \r\nWINDS ARE NOW 40 KNOTS BUT THEY ARE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL REINTENSIFY KYLE BUT WITH THE CURRENT \r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE BEST OPTION FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST IS TO MAINTAIN THE SAME INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS.    \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KYLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING AROUND A LARGER CIRCULATION \r\nWHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND \r\nKYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPANDS EASTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS \r\nLONG RANGE FORECAST POSITIONS IN ALL DIRECTIONS BUT MORE MODELS ARE \r\nJOINING THE SOUTHWESTWARD PARADE. \r\n\r\nIF KYLE SURVIVES AND GETS TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...CONDITIONS \r\nCOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH A WESTWARD TRACK. \r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL IS NOT IN FAVOR OF THIS SOLUTION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 28.5N  67.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 28.5N  67.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 27.8N  67.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.2N  68.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  68.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":46,"Date":"2002-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT CONTINUES ACROSS KYLE...INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS BROUGHT UP TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS IN GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT WITH LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM BOTH \r\nTAFB AND SAB. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH LATEST IMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION \r\nATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM. SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LIMITED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE \r\nFORECAST. GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATING ONLY SLIGHT \r\nDEEPENING...AND THAT IS RESTIRCTED TO THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME. \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING \r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR RELAXES SLIGHTLY OVER KYLE.\r\n \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE \r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT...A SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD DRIFT IS \r\nEXPECTED AS KYLE BECOMES STEERED BY THE MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE THAT \r\nBEGINS TO BUILD NORTH OF IT BY THAT TIME. AVN REMAINS ONLY \r\nSIGNIFICANT OUTLIER TO THE EAST OF CURRENT POSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 28.4N  67.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 28.2N  67.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 28.1N  67.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 28.0N  68.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.9N  68.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 27.9N  69.4W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":47,"Date":"2002-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT STATIONARY ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nSLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE MODELS AGREE ON A\r\nCONTINUED SLOW FORWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS BUT THERE IS\r\nDISAGREEMENT ABOUT DIRECTION OF MOTION.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION WHILE THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW AN EASTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS IS FOR LITTLE MOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE MOTION ALSO.\r\n \r\nA DRIFTING BUOY ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 45 KNOTS\r\nAT 0330Z AND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO 45 KNOTS.\r\n THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS.  THE LATEST INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER AND THIS IMPLIES SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM 24 KNOTS TO 15 KNOTS IN\r\n48 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY AN\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST OF 50 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 28.5N  67.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 28.5N  67.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 28.5N  67.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":48,"Date":"2002-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE IS TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  CONVECTION IS WRAPPING \r\nNICELY AROUND A MID LEVEL CENTER...BUT THIS IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST \r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.   IN ADDITION...BANDING IS BEGINNING \r\nTO DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO \r\nGAUGE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT.  THERE WAS A LARGE \r\nAREA OF 45 KT RAIN-FLAGGED QUIKSCAT WINDS...WITH SOME RAIN-FLAGGED \r\nSPOTS OF 55 AND 60 KT.  THERE IS A BUOY EAST OF THE CENTER BUT ITS \r\nREPORTS HAVE BEEN QUITE ERRATIC.  MY INTERPRETATION OF THE QUIKSCAT \r\nIS THAT THE PEAK WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 50 KT...PERHAPS A SHADE \r\nHIGHER.\r\n\r\nKYLE HAS BEEN MOVING OR REDEVELOPING EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION \r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 070/4.  KYLE REMAINS EMBEDDED \r\nIN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER \r\nHIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS HIGH \r\nEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO \r\nTHREE DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OR \r\nWEST...AT LEAST FOR A WHILE.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAST THIS \r\nWILL OCCUR.  THE UKMET SHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION RIGHT AWAY THAT IS AT \r\nODDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS.  BOTH THE GFDL AND AVN SHOW UP TO 24 HOURS \r\nOF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT BEFORE TURNING KYLE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST \r\nAND SOUTHWEST...RESPECTIVELY.  A GOOD SHOT OF UPPER NORTHERLY OR \r\nNORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BE COMING AROUND THIS HIGH IN A DAY OR \r\nSO...SO I THINK THE SOUTHWESTERLY TURN IS MORE LIKELY.\r\n\r\nKYLE HAS ABOUT A 24 HOUR WINDOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE \r\nAFOREMENTIONED UPPER NORTHEASTERLIES INCREASE THE SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT THREE \r\nDAYS...THE GFDL MAKES KYLE A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS \r\nQUITE PLAUSIBLE...GIVEN THE CYCLONES CURRENT EFFORTS TO ORGANIZE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 28.9N  67.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 29.0N  66.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 28.8N  66.5W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N  67.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.3N  67.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  68.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":49,"Date":"2002-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW NEARLY \r\nCO-LOCATED.  THERE IS A...UH...HOLE...AT THE CENTER THAT I WOULD \r\nCALL AN EYE IF THE NEARBY CONVECTION WAS MORE SOLID OR VIGOROUS.  \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE BOTH 55 KT. \r\nSINCE THE TREND IN THE CLASSIFICATIONS IS UPWARD...I WILL ASSUME THE \r\nWINDS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT AT ADVISORY TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/2.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE REMAINS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA.  GLOBAL MODELS MOVE\r\nTHIS HIGH EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OR WEST...AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS...THE GFDL NO LONGER SHOWS ANY\r\nMORE EASTWARD TRANSLATION...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL DOES.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY CONVERGING A BIT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK\r\nWITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT OR JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nAS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH ERODES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nKYLE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE A SHOT \r\nOF UPPER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES THE SHEAR.  THEREFORE THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KYLE REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH \r\nBRIEFLY BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY DUE TO SHEAR.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 29.0N  66.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 29.0N  66.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.7N  66.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N  67.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N  68.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  70.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":50,"Date":"2002-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW STATIONARY.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  KYLE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW\r\nON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER\r\nSOUTHERN GEORGIA.  GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST...AT LEAST FOR\r\nMOST OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE T-NUMBERS HAVE ACTUALLY DECREASED AND ARE NOW 3.0 FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nAT 55 KTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KTS.  A BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS IT WAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.\r\nKYLE HAS ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER\r\nNORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND SHOWS KYLE \r\nWEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 29.1N  66.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 29.1N  66.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 29.0N  67.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 28.8N  67.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 28.7N  68.7W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.8N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":51,"Date":"2002-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nIS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  KYLE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER\r\nSOUTHERN GEORGIA.  GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THIS HIGH EASTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD TURN KYLE BACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...AT LEAST\r\nFOR MOST OF THE THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE MOTION TO A MORE WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KTS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KTS.  INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE NEAR THE CENTER.  KYLE HAS ABOUT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF UPPER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL\r\nINCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND SHOWS KYLE WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 29.0N  66.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 29.2N  67.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 29.5N  68.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 29.9N  69.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 30.7N  70.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 32.0N  71.4W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":52,"Date":"2002-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WITH A WESTWARD COMPONENT...AS EXPECTED.  THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/4.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE \r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SLIDE EASTWARD...AND SHOULD GENTLY \r\nSTEER KYLE AROUND ITS PERIPHERY ON A GRADUAL RECURVING TRACK BETWEEN \r\nTHE CAROLINAS AND BERMUDA.  MODEL GUIDANCE STILL HAS CONSIDERABLE \r\nSCATTER WITH REGARD TO FORWARD SPEED.  THE GFS IS AMONG THE SLOWEST \r\nMODELS...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WESTWARD COMPONENT FOR THE FIRST 24 \r\nHOURS.  THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER TRACK \r\nAND IN BETTER TOUCH WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nLEANS IN THIS DIRECTION.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE IS BROAD...IS APPEARS TO HAVE SPUN \r\nDOWN SINCE YESTERDAY.  CONVECTION IS WEAK AND LIMITED IN AREAL \r\nEXTENT.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF \r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT DATA.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO \r\n45 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR \r\nWILL HARASS KYLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ADDITIONAL DECREASES \r\nARE EXPECTED.  AS KYLE BEGINS TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BECOME MORE \r\nFAVORABLE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 29.2N  67.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 29.4N  68.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 29.8N  69.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 30.4N  70.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 31.5N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 33.5N  71.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":53,"Date":"2002-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWILL SLIDE EASTWARD...AND SHOULD GENTLY STEER KYLE AROUND ITS\r\nPERIPHERY ON A GRADUAL RECURVING TRACK BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND\r\nBERMUDA.  THE GFS REMAINS AMONG THE SLOWEST MODELS WITH THE\r\nRECURVATURE...BUT IN RECENT RUNS IT HAS BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE\r\nOBSERVED WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A\r\nBLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT WITH A SHARPER NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE VIGOROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVED\r\nBANDING.  DESPITE THIS IMPROVED APPEARANCE...DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC ARE 30...35...AND 45\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  SINCE THE QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUPPORTED\r\n45 KT...I WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 45 KT.  THERE IS ALREADY EVIDENCE\r\nTHAT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES ARE IMPINGING ON KYLE...AS THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST WHILE IT IS RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN HOW STRONG THIS\r\nSHEARING FLOW WILL BE AND OVER HOW LARGE AN AREA IT WILL EXTEND.\r\nALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WEAKENS KYLE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SO QUICK TO WEAKEN KYLE...AS\r\nTHERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT KYLE MAY BE ABLE TO AVOID A PROLONGED\r\nEXPOSURE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  AS KYLE BEGINS TO MOVE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nCOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 29.4N  68.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 29.7N  68.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 30.3N  69.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 31.3N  71.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 33.0N  71.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":54,"Date":"2002-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE REFUSES TO GO AWAY...BUT NEITHER DOES IT WANT TO MAINTAIN ANY \r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE \r\nINITIAL POSITION IS NORTHEAST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES WHICH WERE IN \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION AT 00Z. THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SUGGEST THAT \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE \r\nNORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nANALYSIS USING A SHEAR PATTERN WOULD STILL SUPPORT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/3. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nHIGHLY DIVERGENT BETWEEN A WEST THROUGH NORTHERLY MOTION FROM ITS \r\nCURRENT POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND POSSIBLY \r\nMADE KYLE A MORE SHALLOW VERTICAL CIRCULATION. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT \r\nMEANS THAT STEERING CURRENTS MAY BECOME WEAK AGAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF KYLE IS FORECAST BY \r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN HIGHLY ZONAL WITH ONLY WEAK \r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE PASSAGE OF EACH \r\nTROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW TO KYLE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE \r\nBEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN AND KYLE STALLS...AGAIN. THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KYLE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH \r\nIN SHORT SPURTS AROUND THE SMALL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NORTHEAST \r\nOF BERMUDA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVN/GFS...AVN/GFS \r\nENSEMBLE...AND UMMET MODELS.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER SOME NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR \r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN \r\nINTENSITY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD...THE 200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT \r\nFROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH AND THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 29.5N  68.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 30.0N  69.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 30.5N  70.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 32.0N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  71.1W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 35.5N  69.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":55,"Date":"2002-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002\r\n \r\nA 0121Z SSMI PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KYLE HAS \r\nBECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FURTHER SUPPORT A \r\nWEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT \r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTRACK REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW \r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND \r\nTHAT TIME...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT SYSTEM IS \r\nCAPTURED BY THE SAME TROUGH FORCING LILI NORTHWARD. GFS IS SLOWEST \r\nOF GUIDANCE SUITE WITH THE NORTHWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH REMAINDER OF \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION. \r\nSIMILARLY GLOBAL MODELS ALL APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT A SECOND \r\nSHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN 72 HOURS \r\nWILL FINALLY PULL KYLE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nSLOWED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nKYLE SHOULD REMAIN IN NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR \r\nTHROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR \r\nRELAXES YET AGAIN PROVIDING KYLE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL \r\nENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SOME \r\nINTENSIFICATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 29.8N  68.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 30.2N  69.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 31.1N  70.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 31.8N  70.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 32.5N  70.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":56,"Date":"2002-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND WITH\r\nTHEM...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS GO UP AND DOWN.  CURRENTLY...THE CENTER\r\nIS EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION AND INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  KYLE HAS GONE THROUGH AND SURVIVED\r\nSEVERAL EPISODES OF STRONG SHEAR DURING THE PAST WEEK AND A NEW ONE\r\nIS OCCURRING NOW.  HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE AGAIN.  THEREFORE...IF KYLE\r\nSURVIVES THE CURRENT SHEAR...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AGAIN AS \r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE \r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING KYLE TO GRADUALLY TURN \r\nTO THE NORTH VERY SLOWLY. THE BIG QUESTION IS...WILL THE NEW SHORT \r\nWAVE CARRY KYLE WITH IT TO THE NORTHEAST? MODELS DISAGREE AND THE \r\nBEST SOLUTION IS TO KEEP KYLE MOVING VERY SLOWLY UNTIL A MORE \r\nDEFINITE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 30.2N  69.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 30.5N  70.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 31.5N  71.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 33.5N  71.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 35.0N  71.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":57,"Date":"2002-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE \r\nCONVECTION AND THERE ARE NO EVIDENCES OF NEW CELLS REDEVELOPING AT \r\nTHIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS TIGHT AND WELL DEFINED. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW IN 36 \r\nTO 48 HOURS WHEN KYLE COULD RESTRENGTHEN IF THE SHEAR RELAXES AS \r\nMODELS INDICATE AND KYLE SURVIVES THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 320/5 KNOTS. THE RIDGE NORTH OF KYLE IS FORECAST \r\nTO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN \r\nTO THE NORTH. THE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE...WILL THE \r\nAPPROACHING SHORT WAVE TAKE KYLE WITH IT TO THE NORTHEAST? MODELS \r\nREMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT...PRIMARILY IN THE SPEED.  THE BEST SOLUTION \r\nIS TO KEEP KYLE MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNTIL A MORE DEFINITE \r\nSTEERING PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 30.8N  70.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 32.5N  71.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 34.5N  72.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 35.5N  71.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":58,"Date":"2002-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  58\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002\r\n \r\nUNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH \r\nKYLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND \r\nIS NOW ABOUT 130 NM AWAY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND \r\nSAB ARE STILL 35 KT...BUT THE T NUMBERS ARE LOWER...AND I HAVE MY \r\nDOUBTS AS TO WHETHER KYLE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  A QUIKSCAT \r\nPASS JUST IN HAS A COUPLE OF SUSPECT 35 KT VECTORS...BUT LOTS AT 30 \r\nKT...ENOUGH TO PRESUME THAT THERE ARE 35 KT WINDS BELOW THE \r\nRESOLUTION OF THE SCATTEROMETER...SO KYLE REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM \r\nFOR NOW.\r\n\r\nFOR THE LAST TWELVE HOURS KYLE HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  THE MID-LEVEL \r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW CENTER THAT KYLE HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND IS \r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...LEAVING KYLE EMBEDDED WITHIN \r\nA LARGER ANTICYCLONE CUTOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES.  THE GFS AND GFDL \r\nMEANDER KYLE IN MORE OR LESS ITS CURRENT LOCATION FOR THE NEXT \r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THE NOGAPS STILL TAKES KYLE OUT TO SEA...JUST BEYOND \r\nOUR THREE DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THIS MODEL IS NOW THE OUTLIER.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS OVERALL MOTION THAN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT OF KYLE IS CURRENTLY VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR \r\nREDEVELOPMENT.  THE SHEAR IS STRONG...AND THE SURROUNDING AIR IS \r\nRATHER DRY.  CONSEQUENTLY I EXPECT KYLE TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM \r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE THE SHEAR LESSENS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  AT THAT TIME \r\nTHERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR LIMITED REDEVELOPMENT.  NEAR THE \r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A NON- OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW MOVES INTO \r\nTHE AREA FROM THE EAST...AND IS LIKELY TO CREATE MORE HOSTILE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR KYLE. \r\n\r\nHOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE.  JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT\r\nTHE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE GFS HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS\r\nACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF\r\nTHE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 31.4N  71.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 32.4N  71.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.4N  71.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  71.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 35.0N  71.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  71.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":59,"Date":"2002-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002\r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THERE IS NO \r\nOTHER DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.  SATELLITE \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CI 2.0/2.5/2.5 OR 30/35/35 KNOTS \r\nFROM SAB/TAFB/AFGWC.  RECENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATES FROM SSMI AND TRMM \r\nPASSES INDICATE WINDS ARE BELOW 35 KNOTS.  SO KYLE IS DOWNGRADED TO \r\nA DEPRESSION.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER BECAME POORLY DEFINED ON INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE \r\nECLIPSE...BUT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL MOTION \r\nOF 310/8.  THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW \r\nKYLE TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE \r\nNOGAPS MODEL SHOWS KYLE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN 36 HOURS \r\nFOLLOWED BY STATIONARY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nWITH A MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL AND THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO MODESTLY INCREASE \r\nTO 40 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING \r\nKYLE IS FORECAST TO SOON DECREASE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 32.0N  72.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 33.4N  72.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.6N  71.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":60,"Date":"2002-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  60\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nBE INTERMITTENT AND IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND WINDS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF\r\nSHEAR RELAXES AS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nKYLE APPEARS TO BE MOVING 020/4 AND A VERY SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. KYLE SHOULD TURN MORE TO\r\nEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nNOT MUCH MORE CAN BE ADDED AFTER 60 ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 32.4N  71.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  70.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 33.5N  70.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 34.5N  70.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 35.0N  69.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 35.5N  67.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":61,"Date":"2002-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  61\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND QUIKSCAT DATA. THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nBE INTERMITTENT AND KEEPS REFORMING NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND WINDS COULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF\r\nSHEAR RELAXES AS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nKYLE IS MOVING NORTH NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 OR 9  KNOTS. THERE ARE ALL \r\nKINDS OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...FROM MERGING WITH A WESTWARD DEVELOPING \r\nLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS MODEL...TO \r\nTHE INTERACTION WITH SUCH LOW AND THEN MOVING KYLE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS \r\nSUGGESTED BY THE UK MODEL. THE GFDL MAKES IT A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES \r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST.\r\n\r\nI AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY MORE ABOUT KYLE.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTH NORTHEAST MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO \r\nTHE EAST AT ABOUT 2 TO 4 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 33.4N  70.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 34.4N  70.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 35.0N  69.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 35.5N  68.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 35.5N  67.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 35.5N  66.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":62,"Date":"2002-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  62\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 05 2002\r\n\r\nKYLE CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS A FAIRLY LARGE AND VIGOROUS LOW-\r\nLEVEL SWIRL.  HOWEVER...ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...AS\r\nEARLIER BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT WERE WORKING THEIR WAY TOWARD\r\nTHE CENTER HAVE DISSIPATED.  A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS 25-30 KT\r\nWINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS COMBINED WITH\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM\r\nAFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE THE BASIS FOR THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY\r\nOF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 060/5.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING...AS INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS A STRONG LOW-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE EAST OF KYLE THAT SHOULD BE MOVING IT MORE NORTHWARD.\r\nTHE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A WEAKENING FRONT \r\nNORTHWEST OF KYLE WITH ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING BEHIND\r\nTHE FRONT.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KYLE IS GOING TO\r\nSTAY CAUGHT BETWEEN THESE RIDGES FOR AT LEAST 36 HR...WITH THE\r\nNEXT POSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nCOMING EITHER WHEN A NEW DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH NEW\r\nENGLAND OR WHEN KYLE INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CURRENTLY\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE EARLIEST EITHER OF THESE IS LIKELY\r\nTO HAPPEN IS 48 HR...AND THERE IS NO WAY TO TELL AT THIS MOMENT\r\nWHICH WILL BE THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON KYLE.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS MANY SOLUTIONS FROM SOUTH TO EAST TO NORTH WITH CONSIDERABLE\r\nSPREAD.  IN VIEW OF THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN A SLOW\r\nEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR... WITH THE TRACK SHIFTED SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nSHEAR PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER KYLE...AND LARGE-\r\nSCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABOUT A 36 HR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN.  AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY\r\nLITTLE CHANGE.  IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-ORGANIZE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36 HR...THEN KYLE MAY WEAKEN TO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW AFTER\r\nTHE SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 33.3N  69.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 33.6N  69.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 33.8N  68.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  67.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 34.0N  66.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 34.0N  65.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":63,"Date":"2002-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  63\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/4.  GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND THE \r\nCANADIAN MODEL ALL SHOW KYLE ROTATING AROUND A RIDGE IN AN \r\nANTICYCLONIC TURN AT VARIOUS FORWARD SPEEDS.  ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL \r\nSHOWS KYLE GETTING PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE \r\nSTRATEGY USED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD \r\nMOTION FOLLOWED BY STATIONARY AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS IS A SMALL \r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH SHOWED A VERY SLOW \r\nEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND AGREES BETTER WITH A CONSENSUS \r\nOF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITIES ARE IN THE 30 \r\nTO 35 KNOT RANGE.  SO KYLE MAY AGAIN BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM \r\nSTRENGTH.  HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 23Z AGO SHOWED ALL WIND SPEEDS \r\nLESS THAN 35 KNOTS.  I WILL LEAVE THE UPGRADE TO THE NEXT ADVISORY \r\nIF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS.  AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR NOW APPEARS TO BE \r\nSMALL AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SMALL FOR A WHILE...KYL IS FORECAST \r\nTO BECOME A STORM AGAIN FOR THE THIRD TIME...IN 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 33.5N  69.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 33.8N  69.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 34.0N  68.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 34.0N  68.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 34.0N  68.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 34.0N  68.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":64,"Date":"2002-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  64\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB...A \r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS \r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS WE ARE RE-UPGRADING KYLE TO A \r\nTROPICAL STORM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES KYLE IS NOW IN A \r\nLOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COURTESY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THESE \r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED FOR \r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF AN \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL LOW AND INCREASING MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY \r\nFLOW WILL PROBABLY CREATE A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A SLIGHT JOG TO THE \r\nNORTH DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  KYLE IS VIRTUALLY IN A COL...WITH A \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO \r\nTHE EAST-SOUTHEAST...AND BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE \r\nEAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  DUE TO THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREAT UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE \r\nFUTURE MOTION OF KYLE.  IN PARTICULAR THERE IS A QUESTION HOW THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL AFFECT THE \r\nSTEERING.  THEREFORE...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR \r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 33.7N  69.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 34.0N  69.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  69.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 34.0N  68.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 34.0N  68.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 34.0N  68.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":65,"Date":"2002-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  65\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nWITH MORE SYMMETRY AND HINTS OF BANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T2.5 SO WE WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 35 KT.\r\nTHE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BECOMING\r\nWELL ESTABLISHED OVER KYLE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN 12 TO 24 HOURS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBECAUSE OF THE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ORGANIZING TREND.\r\nHOWEVER...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE STILL LIKELY TO BECOME MORE HOSTILE.\r\n \r\nPREVIOUS CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO FAR\r\nTO THE NORTH...OR THE CENTER MAY HAVE REFORMED TO THE SOUTH.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT MOTION.  THE STORM REMAINS\r\nIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  A TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES\r\nSHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF KYLE.  THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nCYCLONE APPROACHING KYLE FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST COULD STEER THE\r\nSTORM SOUTHWARD.  WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH MAINLY\r\nBECAUSE OF THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...HOWEVER THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 32.7N  69.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 32.7N  69.7W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 32.6N  69.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 32.5N  69.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 32.5N  69.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 32.0N  69.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":66,"Date":"2002-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  66\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 06 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASE DURING \r\nTHE AFTERNOON...BUT NOW SEEMS TO HAVE SETTLED BACK INTO A MORE \r\nTYPICAL BANDING PATTERN. THE INITIAL LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT \r\nPROBLEMATIC WITH A 07/0025Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATING A POSSIBLE \r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NORTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION... \r\nWHILE THE SAME IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A LARGE MID-LEVEL \r\nDOUGHNUT-HOLE FEATURE TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BETWEEN \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL FEATURE IN CASE \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WORKS ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE \r\nAGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD AS AN ANTICYCLONE HAS \r\nBUILT ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/02. FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES... \r\nKYLE COULD EASILY BE CONSIDERED STATIONARY...ESPECIALLY IF THE \r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW-LEVEL \r\nFEATURE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFDN...AND THE BAM \r\nMODELS NOW AGREE ON TAKING KYLE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST \r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER \r\nTHAT. THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA \r\nIS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH 24 TO \r\n36 HOURS AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND WEAKEN \r\nBEFORE LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TRACK OF THE LOW SEEMS \r\nREASONABLE...BUT I FEEL THAT THE MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW \r\nTOO QUICKLY GIVEN ITS RATHER LARGE SIZE OF ALMOST 1000 NMI IN \r\nDIAMETER. AS SUCH...I EXPECT THE UPPER-LOW TO HAVE A GREATER \r\nSOUTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THAN WHAT THE AVN/GFS IS INDICATING... \r\nBUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS KYLE VERY \r\nCLOSE TO BERMUDA. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN \r\nKYLE AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE EAST...THE UPPER-LOW IS MUCH LARGER \r\nTHAN KYLE AND THEREFORE SHOULD ACT TO STEER THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE \r\nSOUTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL SOLUTION TAKES KYLE NORTH \r\nAND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION...WHICH APPEARS TO \r\nBE THE OUTLIER FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN DIRECTION...BUT CONSIDERABLY \r\nFASTER AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWITH SOME NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS KYLE \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS \r\nFORECAST. BUT SINCE KYLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE LATITUDE AND \r\nMOVE OVER WARMER WATER...THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN \r\nFORECAST AT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS \r\nSTILL LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH MAKES KYLE A HURRICANE AGAIN \r\nBY 72 HOURS...IN SPITE OF NEARLY 30 KT OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 32.5N  69.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 32.5N  69.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 32.3N  69.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 31.7N  68.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 30.8N  68.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  68.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":67,"Date":"2002-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  67\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2002\r\n\r\nNIGHTTIME INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0504 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST...WITH ONE CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33.5N71.5W AND A\r\nSECOND VORTEX/VORTMAX NEAR 32N70W NEAR THE MAIN CONVECTION.  THE\r\nINITIAL COORDINATES FOR THIS ADVISORY ARE SOMEWHAT RE-LOCATED TO A\r\nMEAN POSITION BETWEEN THE TWO VORTICITY CENTERS...AND SOME FURTHER\r\nRE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE WESTERN CENTER IS ACTUALLY THE\r\nMAIN CENTER.  WHILE THE MAIN CONVECTION IS NEAREST THE EASTERN\r\nCENTER...SOME SMALL BURSTS HAVE OCCURRED CLOSER TO THE WESTERN.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...WINDS FROM THE\r\nTRMM OVERPASS HINT THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 240/3.  KYLE REMAINS\r\nCAUGHT IN A COL BETWEEN PORTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH\r\nA UPPER COLD LOW/SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST\r\nAND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  AT THE MOMENT...\r\nTHE COLD LOW/TROUGH IS WINNING THE RACE TO KYLE...AND MUCH OF THE\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL SOUTHERLY MOTION AS A RESULT.\r\nALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE WESTERLIES WEST OF KYLE \r\nEXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...ONLY CLIPER AND\r\nTHE NHC98 FORECAST KYLE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  IN VIEW OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW SOUTH- \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT BECOMES SOUTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE \r\nFORECAST GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION \r\nALONG WITH THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE.  IF THE WESTERN CENTER IS \r\nACTUALLY THE MAIN CENTER...A FURTHER SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY \r\nBE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM THE\r\nMAIN CONVECTION...THE LOCATION OF THE CONVECTION AT THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST END OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION HINTS THAT SOMETHING\r\nIS NOT QUITE RIGHT WITH THE ENVIRONMENT.  PERHAPS THE LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ALREADY HAVING A SHEARING INFLUENCE.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS\r\nFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER 24 HR...AND EVEN IF THEY ARE NOT\r\nQUITE RIGHT IN THEIR HANDLING OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS STILL LIKELY\r\nTO BE THE CASE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A SMALLER UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW JUST EAT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS MOVE NEAR KYLE IN 24 HR OR SO.  THIS MIGHT GIVE KYLE A LITTLE \r\nKICK BEFORE THE STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY KYLE\r\nHOLDING ITS OWN FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS A CONSIDERABLY\r\nWEAKER FORECAST THAT THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH STRENGTHENS KYLE\r\nDESPITE THE SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 32.8N  70.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  70.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 32.0N  71.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 31.3N  71.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 30.3N  71.4W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":68,"Date":"2002-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  68\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 07 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS AN ELLIPTICAL LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE \r\nPARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER. CURRENTLY...DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A \r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS BEGINNING \r\nTO IMPINGE ON THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  DEEP \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KYLE IS RATHER LIMITED AND THE DVORAK \r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  \r\nTHEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS KEPT AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  DESPITE  \r\nGUIDANCE FROM THE SHIPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS WHICH \r\nINTENSIFY KYLE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ONLY A SLIGHT \r\nINCREASE IS FORECAST SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME \r\nLESS FAVORABLE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 220/3...JUST DRIFTING SOUTHWEST.  A SLOW \r\nSOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WHILE KYLE \r\nREMAINS IN AN AREA WITH WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  LATER IN THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE \r\nTO THE NORTH AND MERGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDES WESTERLIES AS A RIDGE \r\nBUILDS TO THE WEST OF KYLE. IF THIS SCENARIO HOLDS...KYLE WILL BE \r\nSTEERED AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 32.6N  70.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 32.0N  70.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 31.3N  70.9W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 30.4N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 29.5N  71.2W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 27.5N  72.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":69,"Date":"2002-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  69\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2002\r\n\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS...BASED ON AN ILL-DEFINED BANDING PATTERN...SUGGEST \r\nTHAT KYLE MAY HAVE STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS \r\nSTILL RATHER PALTRY AND THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS PARTIALLY \r\nEXPOSED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH \r\nSIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE...AS PER USUAL...SINCE \r\nWE HAVE A LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF INTENSITY CHANGE.\r\n\r\nLATEST POSITION ESTIMATES SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION.  THE LARGE \r\nDEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO LIFT AND MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WHILE A \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEASTWARD FROM FLORIDA OVER \r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FOR A \r\nSOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST NEAR THE \r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.  THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE \r\nNORTH OF THIS MORNINGS OUTPUT...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... \r\nWHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO GUNA...THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/AVN(GFS) \r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 32.7N  70.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 32.1N  70.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  71.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 30.3N  71.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 29.3N  71.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  73.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":70,"Date":"2002-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  70\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF \r\nKYLE...WHICH HAS LIMITED AND MOSTLY SHAPELESS CONVECTION TO THE \r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS \r\nARE UNCHANGED FROM THEIR PREVIOUS VALUES AND SO IS THE ADVISORY \r\nINTENSITY.  KYLE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH BUT THERE MAY HAVE BEEN A \r\nSOUTHWARD DRIFT...AND THE ADVISORY MOTION WILL BE 180/2.\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS LOTS OF COMPANY IN A COMPLEX NEAR ENVIRONMENT.  A\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND IS CURRENTLY\r\nPRODUCING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS\r\nTROUGH SHOULD BE OUT OF THE PICTURE IN ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KYLE IS BEGINNING TO\r\nTURN MORE NORTHWARD AND IS STARTING TO LOSE SOME DEFINITION.  THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS TRYING TO STEER KYLE SOUTHWARD.  A SMALLER MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW IS OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THIS LOW IS\r\nCURRENTLY HELPING TO NEGATE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE FIRST\r\nLOW...BUT SHOULD LOSE OUT IN THE END AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS FROM FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF\r\nKYLE.  THE END RESULT IS THAT A BASIC SOUTHWESTWARD STEERING PATTERN\r\nSHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND \r\nNOGAPS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND IN \r\nGENERAL THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONVERGENCE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THIS \r\nDIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL TRACKS \r\nAND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MAJOR OUTLIER NOW \r\nIS THE UKMET...WHICH PULLS KYLE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE LARGE UPPER \r\nLOW.  SHOULD KYLE GET UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT IS EXPECTED TO \r\nDEVELOP OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT COULD FIND ITSELF IN AN \r\nENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.  \r\n\r\nKYLE IS POISED TO ENTER THE TOP TEN LIST OF LONGEST-LASTING TROPICAL\r\nOR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES.  WITH THIS ADVISORY...KYLE HAS BEEN IN\r\nEXISTENCE FOR 17.5 DAYS...PUTTING IT AT NUMBER 11.  THE CURRENT TOP\r\nTEN IS GIVEN BELOW...THANKS TO ERIC BLAKE.  PERHAPS THE MERE \r\nCOMPILATION OF THIS LIST WILL MAKE KYLE GO AWAY...\r\n \r\nRANK  #DAYS  NAME/YEAR\r\n----------------------\r\n1     27.25  GINGER 1971\r\n2     24.75  INGA 1969\r\n3     20.75  CARRIE 1957\r\n             STORM 9 OF 1893\r\n5     20.25  INEZ 1966\r\n6     19.75  ALBERTO 2000\r\n7     19.50  STORM 4 OF 1926\r\n8     18.50  STORM 6 OF 1893\r\n9     18.00  STORM 2 OF 1930\r\n10    17.75  STORM 2 OF 1899\r\n11    17.50  KYLE 2002\r\n             BEULAH 1967\r\n             STORM 3 OF 1906\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 32.3N  71.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 31.9N  71.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 31.0N  71.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  71.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 29.0N  72.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 28.0N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":71,"Date":"2002-10-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  71\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002\r\n\r\nPOST-ECLIPSE IR IMAGERY AND A 0408Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATE THAT\r\nKYLE IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEAR.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY\r\nEXPOSED AT THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE\r\nIS NO OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THE CENTER IS\r\nWELL DEFINED...THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED \r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF KYLE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND AWFA.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 195/3...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE FASTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF KYLE...WHICH IS ABOUT TO BYPASS\r\nTHE STORM.  THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH\r\nEAST OF KYLE ARE ELONGATING AND MOVING NORTHWARD...BYPASSING KYLE\r\nTO THE EAST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING\r\nWILL DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF KYLE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD\r\nFRONT/SHORTWAVE...AND THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OR\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THE MOST PART AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO....WITH CLIPER BEING THE ONLY MODEL THAT SHOWS A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS LIKELY TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COULD BUILD NEAR THE SYSTEM AND SOMEWHAT\r\nLESSEN THE SHEAR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARMER WATER ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT KYLE COULD\r\nSTRUGGLE FOR 24 HR OR SO THEN SLOWLY INTENSIFY.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nAVN/GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAKENING KYLE...\r\nWITH ONLY THE NOGAPS MAINTAINING THE STORM AT OR ABOVE ITS\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW SOME MODEST \r\nSTRENGTHENING...LESS THAN FORECAST 24 HR AGO...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...A STEADY-STATE OR\r\nWEAKENING KYLE COULD OCCUR IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE AS\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 31.9N  71.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  71.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 30.3N  71.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N  72.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 28.9N  73.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  75.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":72,"Date":"2002-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  72\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002\r\n\r\nKYLE IS NOT LOOKING TOO HEALTHY AT THE MOMENT.  THERE IS A LIMITED\r\nAMOUNT OF RAGGEDLY-SHAPED DEEP CONVECTION...THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SHEAR IS BEING PRODUCE BY A\r\nCOMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF KYLE AND A\r\nLARGE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCUTTING OFF NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nRIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 28N IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALTHOUGH SUCH AN\r\nENVIRONMENT WOULD STILL PRODUCE SOME SHEAR OVER KYLE...IT COULD BE\r\nBE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER THE GFS AND U.K.  MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE NOT IMPRESSED BY THE ENVIRONMENT...AS THEY WEAKEN KYLE TO A\r\nSURFACE TROUGH IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONES...ALLOWS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE DAYS BUT\r\nIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...\r\nAROUND 195/5.  AS A 500 MB RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST \r\nOF KYLE...WE EXPECT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND \r\nEVENTUALLY WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT AS FAST AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS \r\nTHE GFS AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 31.1N  71.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.3N  71.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 29.3N  72.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 28.6N  73.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 28.1N  74.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 27.5N  77.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":73,"Date":"2002-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  73\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR HAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER OF KYLE.  \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL DEFINED...BUT CURRENTLY THERE \r\nIS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED \r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE MORE TIME.  WILL KYLE MAKE YET ANOTHER \r\nCOMEBACK?  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS EQUIVOCAL ON THE ANSWER.  FACTORS \r\nIN FAVOR OF RESTRENGTHENING ARE...WARM WATERS AND A GOOD LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION.  FACTORS OPPOSING RE-STRENGTHING ARE...MODERATE \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A \r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL WIND \r\nSPEED FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER WE \r\nCERTAINLY CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POSSIBILITY OF KYLE REGAINING TROPICAL \r\nSTORM STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER...220/8.  THE \r\nPRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE \r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  KYLE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN \r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE \r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS TAKES KYLE TO THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA LATE \r\nIN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW SIGNIFICANT A SYSTEM IT \r\nWILL BE BY THEN. \r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE \r\nKYLE TOMORROW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 30.4N  72.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 29.5N  73.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 28.6N  74.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 28.0N  76.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 27.7N  77.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 28.0N  81.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":74,"Date":"2002-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  74\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 08 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE NO LONGER HAS ANY ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF THE\r\nPREREQUISITES FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT KYLE IN EMBEDDED IN SOME RATHER DRY AIR THAT WILL NOT BE\r\nCONDUCIVE TO GENERATING NEW CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...THE CLOCK IS\r\nTICKING...AND IF KYLE DOES NOT RECOVER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...IT WILL EITHER DEGENERATE TO A SIMPLE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE...OR PERHAPS THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE TO AN OPEN\r\nTROUGH.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nINCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS...AND THE UPPER WINDS WILL BECOME LESS\r\nHOSTILE...SO A RESURGENCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HOWEVER...THE GFS\r\nAND UKMET CONTINUE WITH THEIR FORECASTS OF DISSIPATION...AND THE\r\nGFDL MODEL...WHICH HAD BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS THROWN IN THE TOWEL AND NOW\r\nFORECASTS A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AS WELL.  ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nFORECASTS STRENGTHENING...BUT THIS MODEL HAS ACCUMULATED SOME PRETTY \r\nHEFTY HIGH BIASES ALREADY WITH THIS STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND DOES NOT INDICATE A RETURN \r\nTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST OF KYLE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT JUST OFF THE U.S. \r\nEAST COAST...WINDS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER \r\nWILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE EVEN AS THE OVERALL CIRCULATION WEAKENS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 215/10...FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE PRIMARY\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  KYLE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND BRINGS KYLE NEAR THE COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE\r\nKYLE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 29.5N  72.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 28.4N  74.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 27.8N  76.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 27.5N  78.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 28.5N  82.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":75,"Date":"2002-10-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  75\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2002\r\n\r\nKYLE CONTINUES AS A LARGE CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THIS\r\nMORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND\r\n25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT\r\nBASED ON EARLIER SSM/I...QUIKSCAT...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\nLATER MICROWAVE DATA SHOULD HELP GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY...AS SHOULD AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 220/10...AND POST-ECLIPSE IMAGES HINT AT A\r\nMORE WESTWARD MOTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE NORTHWEST OF KYLE WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD STEER KYLE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK THAT BECOMES WESTERLY BY\r\n24-36 HR.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME\r\nBY 72 HR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TURN.  MOST\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF MOTION...WHICH WOULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 36-48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  AFTER 48 HR...THE MODELS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST RESPONDS TO THIS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND\r\nSLOWING PREVIOUS TO THAT SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nDEVELOPING OVER KYLE...AND THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING.  THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR AT THE MOMENT APPEARS TO BE\r\nSUBSIDENCE OVER THE CENTER THAT IS SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION WILL NOT\r\nRETURN IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WAY...AND THAT KYLE WILL COAST ALONG AS A\r\n30 KT DEPRESSION DUE MAINLY TO THE STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENTS ON \r\nTHE NORTHWEST SIDE.  WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION WOULD THEN OCCUR \r\nAFTER LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST KYLE TO MOVE \r\nUNDER THE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH THE \r\nSHEAR CONTINUING TO DECREASE.  IF CONVECTION RETURNS TO THE \r\nSYSTEM...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME STRENGTHENING COULD \r\nOCCUR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 28.7N  73.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 28.0N  75.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 27.4N  77.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 27.4N  79.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 27.8N  81.1W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":76,"Date":"2002-10-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  76\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 09 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE CONTINUES AS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH...ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED \r\nSHOWER OR TWO...NO DEEP CONVECTION.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS \r\nINDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DOWN TO 25 KT BUT SINCE A \r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KYLE PRESENTLY I \r\nWILL WAIT TO SEE THE AIRCRAFT DATA BEFORE LOWERING THE WINDS.  AS \r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES MORE UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE... \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE.  HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND...IF THIS \r\nCONTINUES...KYLE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRENGTHENING...MAINLY \r\nBECAUSE THE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM DECREASING SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ARE \r\nDOMINATING THAT MODEL'S INTENSITY FORECAST.  NONE OF THE PURELY \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW RE-STRENGTHENING.\r\n  \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS LIKELY OVER THE \r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS KYLE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS STEERED AROUND THE \r\nPERIPHERY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE \r\nTRACK PREDICTION MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 28.5N  74.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.0N  76.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 27.7N  77.9W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 28.0N  79.9W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 28.8N  81.3W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  82.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":77,"Date":"2002-10-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  77\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002\r\n\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVISTS INDICATE THAT \r\nTHE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 25 KT.  ONLY A FEW...ISOLATED \r\nCONVECTIVE CELLS ARE NOTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH KYLE.  SUBSIDENCE \r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE A \r\nSUPPRESSING INFLUENCE.  THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY A SWIRL OF LOW \r\nCLOUDS BUT...SINCE IT IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS STILL A \r\nPOSSIBILITY OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVLOPING IN THE CIRCULATION.  WE \r\nWILL CONTINUE TO CARRY KYLE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND SEE IF IT \r\nMAKES A COMEBACK THIS EVENING.  UNLESS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION RETURN SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT \r\nLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE SHOULD CONTINUED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW \r\nAROUND A LOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH.  THE SYSTEM IS SHOWN AS DISSIPATING \r\nOVER LAND BUT...AS NOTED ABOVE...KYLE MAY HAVE DISSIPATED AS A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WELL BEFORE THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 28.4N  75.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 28.0N  76.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  78.6W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 28.3N  80.4W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  81.5W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 31.5N  82.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":78,"Date":"2002-10-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  78\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 09 2002\r\n \r\nOH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE.  WITH NO TIME TO\r\nSPARE...KYLE GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WITH ENOUGH BANDING TO GENERATE A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF\r\nT1.5 FROM TAFB.  THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH\r\nSOME OF THE OTHER BANDS AS WELL...SO KYLE HAS BOUGHT ITSELF ANOTHER\r\nSIX HOURS OF LIFE...AND PROBABLY MORE.  WHETHER THIS IS JUST A LAST\r\nFLURRY OF ACTIVITY...OR THE START OF A REGENERATION IN RESPONSE TO\r\nAN INCREASE IN SSTS...IS NOT YET CLEAR.  THE SHEAR...WHICH IS STILL\r\nEVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM...SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO...AT WHICH TIME THE CIRCULATION WILL BE UNDERNEATH AN\r\nANTICYCLONE...A CONFIGURATION FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN KYLE...HOWEVER...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nIS STILL EMBEDDED IN A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT.  I SUSPECT THAT THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS ARE STILL TOO HOSTILE TO SUPPORT VERY MUCH\r\nCONVECTION...AND SO I HAVE NOT CHANGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS THINKING COULD CHANGE IF KYLE\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPROVE ITS ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED ROUGHLY MIDWAY BETWEEN FLORIDA AND BERMUDA.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/8...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AND MOST OF IT KEEPS KYLE OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA COASTLINE.\r\nBASED ON THE TRENDS IN INITIAL MOTION AND THE SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW OFFSHORE UNTIL 72 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF NEARLY ALL THE MAJOR\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS NOW TIED FOR THE 7TH LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL\r\nOR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH THE NEXT ADVISORY IT WILL MOVE\r\nINTO THE NUMBER 6 SPOT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 28.3N  76.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 28.3N  77.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 28.6N  79.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 29.4N  80.9W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 34.0N  79.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":79,"Date":"2002-10-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  79\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002\r\n\r\nPOST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D\r\nINDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION...MAINLY TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  SO FAR...THE CONVECTION IS\r\nNEITHER WELL-BANDED NOR CONCENTRATED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A SHIP IN A\r\nCLOUD BAND WELL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 30 KT WINDS AT 03Z.\r\nTHIS BAND HAS RUN AWAY FROM THE CENTER TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST\r\nOF FLORIDA...AND THUS THIS WIND IS LIKELY NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF\r\nTHE ACTUAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF KYLE WHICH SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HR.  BEYOND THAT TIME... \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nCLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE EITHER \r\nINLAND OR JUST OFFSHORE.  TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS \r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BEING IN WHETHER KYLE WILL MOVE \r\nNORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nCALLS FOR KYLE TO RECURVE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST AND MAKE \r\nLANDFALL IN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER 48 HR.  HOWEVER...ANY MOTION WEST \r\nOF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND FARTHER SOUTH \r\nAND EARLIER.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nWHILE SOME DRY AIR IS SEEN NEAR THE CYCLONE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nTHE SUBSIDENCE SEEN 24 HR AGO HAS DIMINISHED.  WITH THE RETURN OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A PATTERN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SAVE FOR THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL CALLS FOR KYLE TO BE STEADY-STATE OR WEAKENING.  GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...ANY STRENGTHENING\r\nSHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY WITH\r\nTHE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...WITH THE FORECAST\r\nLIGHT SHEAR...KYLE COULD RE-INTENSIFY IF THE CONVECTION CAN\r\nCONCENTRATE AND PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 28.3N  77.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 28.4N  79.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 29.1N  80.5W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 30.3N  81.1W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 31.8N  80.9W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 35.0N  79.0W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":80,"Date":"2002-10-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  80\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER \r\nORGANIZED.  THERE WAS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER \r\nALTHOUGH THIS IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.  \r\nHOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED \r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION.  SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT \r\nAIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO CHECK THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY NUMERICAL GUIDANCE THAT \r\nCALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND THAT MODEL HAS BEEN OVER-PREDICTING THE \r\nINTENSITY OF KYLE FOR SOME TIME NOW.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM \r\nLOOKS A BIT MORE IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING...THERE IS NOW A GREATER \r\nPOSSIBILITY OF KYLE REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THEREFORE A \r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  KYLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT \r\nMOVES AROUND A LOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  LATER IN THE \r\nPERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF \r\nA MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EASTERN \r\nUNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE OF THE \r\nLATEST GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 28.5N  78.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 28.9N  80.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 30.3N  81.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 31.8N  81.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 33.5N  80.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 37.0N  77.0W    20 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":81,"Date":"2002-10-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  81\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002\r\n\r\nKYLE HAS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS \r\nNOT VERY PLENTIFUL...ESPECIALLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY WHEN \r\nAN IMPRESSIVE BURST OCCURRED.  DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE \r\nHUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.  AS \r\nBEFORE...ONLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...AND THAT \r\nMODEL HAS HAD A SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE BIAS FOR THIS SYSTEM.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN WINDS UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES \r\nTHE COAST...BUT A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH \r\nREMAINS A POSSIBILITY.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO \r\nINVESTIGATE KYLE AROUND 06Z TONIGHT TO SEE IF ANY ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED.\r\n\r\nKYLE HAS TURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD AROUND A \r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL HIGH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN \r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  LATEST GUIDANCE IS \r\nFAVORING KYLE...ASSUMING IT SURVIVES...MOVING BACK OVER THE WATER BY \r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD.  CLEARLY KYLE HAS BEEN A SURVIVOR UP TO NOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 29.2N  80.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 30.4N  81.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 32.3N  80.8W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 34.0N  79.2W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 35.3N  77.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 37.5N  72.0W    30 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":82,"Date":"2002-10-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  82\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 10 2002\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH KYLE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS \r\nEVENING...AND THE JACKSONVILLE RADAR IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING \r\nSTRUCTURE.  IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE CENTER OF KYLE PASSED VERY \r\nCLOSE TO BUOY 41012.  DATA FROM THIS BUOY INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL \r\nPRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY...IF AT ALL...SINCE THE RECON \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...AND SO I AM NOT GOING TO UPGRADE KYLE JUST YET.  A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN DOES NOT SETTLE THE ISSUE CLEARLY ONE WAY OR \r\nTHE OTHER.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KYLE IN ABOUT 3 \r\nHOURS.  I HAVE SEEN ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM \r\nWATCH TO A WARNING...AND I EXPECT KYLE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM \r\nSTRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11.  KYLE CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT\r\nAND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH A BASICALLY NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAT SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE CENTER INLAND BUT CLOSE TO THE COAST AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nSHOW KYLE BEING ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ITS\r\nASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 48 \r\nHOURS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THERE IS A \r\nPOSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...THAT KYLE COULD MAINTAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY \r\nAND BE THE DOMINANT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...AS SUGGESTED BY THE \r\nCANADIAN AND GFDL MODELS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 30.3N  80.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 32.0N  80.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 34.0N  79.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 35.5N  76.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 39.0N  71.5W    35 KTS...OVER WATER/EXTRATROP\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":83,"Date":"2002-10-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  83\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND 5-10 KT HIGHER WINDS\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS THAN SEEN DURING THE MISSION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.\r\nBASED ON THE 45 KT...KYLE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\nWHILE KYLE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...WSR-88D RADAR\r\nDATA FROM JACKSONVILLE AND CHARLESTON INDICATE THE CONVECTION IS\r\nOCCURRING IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS RATHER THAN SUSTAINED ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION.  TWO SUCH BURSTS RESEMBLING SUPERCELLS HAVE OCCURRED\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 5 HR.\r\n\r\nKYLE MOVED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HR...LIKELY DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER\r\nCAUSED BY CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN 345/11.  KYLE IS NOW PASSING THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS MAKING\r\nCONTACT WITH THE WESTERLIES.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...AND THAT MOTION SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL\r\nKYLE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN\r\nABOUT 12-18 HR...AND IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nKYLE WILL LIKELY MOVE INLAND BEFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nCAN OCCUR...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT THE WINDS COULD\r\nREACH 40 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nMAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM WINDS DUE TO ACCELERATION...CLOSENESS\r\nTO WATER...AND BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTHUS CALLS FOR KYLE TO MAINTAIN 35 KT WINDS UNTIL IT BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT\r\nBETWEEN THE MODELS AS TO WHETHER THE NON-TROPICAL LOW FORECAST\r\nTO BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 48 HR IS EX-KYLE OR A SEPARATE\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT\r\nSEPARATE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AND ABSORB KYLE AFTER 48 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 31.2N  80.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 32.8N  80.7W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 35.0N  78.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 37.2N  74.0W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 38.5N  70.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":84,"Date":"2002-10-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  84\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002\r\n \r\nRADAR FIXES FROM CHARLESTON INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF KYLE IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES ABOUT 13 KNOTS. ON\r\nTHIS TRACK...KYLE SHOULD BE MOVING MOVING ALONG OR NEAR THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BECAUSE MOST OF \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE \r\nCENTER...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NEAR THE COASTLINE.   \r\nKYLE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A \r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND LATEST AVAILABLE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT KYLE\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SO INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. KYLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR\r\nABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 32.4N  80.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 34.0N  78.7W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 36.0N  76.0W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 39.5N  67.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 41.0N  59.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":85,"Date":"2002-10-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  85\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ALONG THE COAST AND REPORTED\r\nA FEW SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER WATER. THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME\r\nBANDS TO THE EAST BUT RADAR INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nNOT WELL DEFINED AND IS BEING LEFT BEHIND. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. KYLE MAY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED AT THIS\r\nTIME AND SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS BECOMING POORLY DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IT APPEARS THAT KYLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AT 14 TO 16 KNOTS.  THIS MOTION MAY BE BIASED DUE TO THE\r\nFAST MOTION OF THE CONVECTION.  NEVERTHELESS...ON THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK...THE CENTER OF KYLE WILL KEEP HUGGING THE UPPER SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  MOST\r\nLIKELY THE STRONGER WINDS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  KYLE IS WELL\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH...SO THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 33.6N  78.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 35.5N  76.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  72.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 39.0N  67.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 41.5N  56.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":86,"Date":"2002-10-12 00:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  86\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT KYLE NO LONGER HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND SO\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE.\r\nKYLE IS LOCATED ON THE COASTLINE NEAR CAPE FEAR...WHILE A\r\nSECOND...NON-TROPICAL LOW IS CENTERED OVER ALBEMARLE SOUND IN\r\nNORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE GFS MODEL\r\nDEEPENS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW...WHICH THEN ENTRAINS KYLE...OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW\r\nPOINTS FOR THE DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH IT IS MY\r\nEXPECTATION THAT THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT IN FACT BE A CONTINUATION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION OF KYLE.  SHOULD KYLE DISSIPATE OR BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...ADVISORIES ON KYLE WILL CEASE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0000Z 34.0N  78.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 35.5N  76.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 39.0N  67.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 41.5N  56.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kyle","Adv":87,"Date":"2002-10-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  87\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2002\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE.  KYLE IS LOCATED ON THE COASTLINE WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT...\r\nWHILE A SECOND...NON-TROPICAL LOW IS ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE NEAR THE\r\nNORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.  THESE TWO LOWS APPEAR NOW TO HAVE \r\nDISTINCT SIGNATURES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THERE IS A BURST OF \r\nCONVECTION CURRENTLY JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF KYLE.  THERE IS \r\nSUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KYLE...SO TROPICAL \r\nREDEVELOPMENT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY.  THE MOST RECENT RUN OF THE\r\nGFS MODEL DEEPENS THE NON-TROPICAL LOW...WHICH THEN ENTRAINS\r\nKYLE...OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS \r\nFOR KYLE TO BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW...PERHAPS SOONER THAN INDICATED \r\nBELOW.\r\n\r\nAT 21.5 DAYS...KYLE IS NOW NUMBER THREE ON THE ATLANTIC BASIN \r\nLONGEVITY LIST...BEHIND INGA OF 1969 AT 24.75 DAYS...AND GINGER OF \r\n1971 AT 27.25 DAYS.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT KYLE CAN MAKE IT TO \r\nNUMBER TWO.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 34.7N  77.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 35.8N  74.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":88,"Date":"2002-10-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  88\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECON DATA ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS \r\nINDICATE THAT KYLE HAS STRENGTHENED BACK INTO A TROPICAL STORM FOR \r\nTHE FIFTH TIME. AT 06Z...RECON FOUND 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF \r\n49 KT IN CONVECTION...WHICH IS ABOUT 39 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHILE \r\nTHE DIAMOND SHOALS C-MAN STATION REPORTED 8-MIN AVERAGE WINDS OF 38 \r\nKT WITH GUSTS TO 43 KT AT 07Z. RECON ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 1009 \r\nMB OVER THE EASTERN PAMLICO SOUND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KYLE \r\nWAS BROUGHT UP TO A 40 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/20. KYLE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE \r\nEAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO \r\nINTERACT WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. KYLE WAS KEPT \r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 06Z BASED ON RE-INTENSIFICATION THAT \r\nOCCURRED IN AN AIRMASS OF MID- TO UPPER-70 DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF A SLOW \r\nMOVING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AN 08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT KYLE IS QUICKLY BECOMING \r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH A WEAK EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE TIP OF THE DELMARVA \r\nPENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. AFTER MERGER \r\nOCCURS...THE KYLE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE EASTWARD AS \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTING BAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO SOME \r\nRIGHT-REAR QUADRANT JETSTREAM DYNAMICS. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nCALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT \r\nKYLE COULD BECOME A 50 KT EXTRATROPICAL STORM CENTER...GIVEN THE \r\nAMOUNT OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY CURRENTLY PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR \r\nSOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 36.0N  75.0W    40 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 37.1N  72.2W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 38.2N  68.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":89,"Date":"2002-10-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  89\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2002\r\n \r\nKYLE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE CONVECTION IS TAKING THE \r\nSHAPE OF A FRONTAL BAND AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE CYCLONE \r\nIS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND A GRADUAL TURN TO \r\nTHE EAST IS EXPECTED. KYLE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW IN \r\nA DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON KYLE...AND I HOPE \r\nTHERE WILL BE NO MORE SURPRISES. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 37.3N  73.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 39.0N  70.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 40.0N  65.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 40.0N  60.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A TROPICAL WAVE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  SHIP AND BUOY DATA\r\nYESTERDAY ALSO HINTED THAT THERE WAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.  EVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS\r\nWEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DEVELOPING\r\nCURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE.  THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHIRTEEN.\r\n\r\nA FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE \r\nDEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS AT \r\nABOUT 15 KNOTS.  SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 91 KNOTS IN \r\n72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE UNTIL \r\nSOME SIGNALS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ARE NOTED.  \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL \r\nATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE ON THE \r\nWESTERN SIDE... PARTIALLY DUE TO KYLE... AND COULD INDUCE A MORE A \r\nTRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS.  FOR NOW THE FORECAST \r\nWILL STAY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL ANY \r\nINTERACTIONS BETWEEN THE CYCLONES BECOME MORE CLEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 10.4N  45.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 10.5N  48.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 11.0N  51.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 11.5N  53.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 12.5N  56.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N  61.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND COULD BECOME A \r\nTROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT 6 TO 18 HOURS.  CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS \r\nARE AT THE THRESHOLD AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL \r\nBE 30 KTS.\r\n \r\nA FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS AT\r\nABOUT 275/15.  USING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AS GUIDANCE THE \r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NEATLY CLUSTERED...AS ONE WOULD \r\nEXPECT IN THE DEEP TROPICS...AND THE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE LESSER \r\nANTILLES IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 10.3N  46.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 10.7N  49.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 11.3N  52.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 12.4N  55.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N  58.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 16.3N  62.7W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nAND APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB \r\nAND 30 KT FROM AFWA. AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION...WHICH LOOKED A \r\nLITTLE SUSPECT...INDICATED ONLY 5 KT WINDS ABOUT 120 NM WEST OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL BE HELD AS A 30 KT \r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/16 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS \r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD \r\nPERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN \r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER \r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL \r\nENVELOPE.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK THE CYCLONE WILL AFFECT THE \r\nLESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nA FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. USING THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL \r\nAS GUIDANCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 10.8N  48.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 11.5N  50.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 12.4N  54.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 13.6N  57.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N  60.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.2N  64.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION \r\nIS NOT WELL DEFINED AND IS MOVING AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. IT MEANS \r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN...OR REFORMS UNDER THE CONVECTION \r\nIT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BUT IF IT DOES NOT...WE MAY END UP \r\nWITH AN OPEN WAVE SOON. AT THIS TIME...SLOW STRENGTHENING IS \r\nINDICATED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS \r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAY BE \r\nREQUIRED. THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE OF THIS SYSTEM \r\nTHAT WE WOULD RATHER MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEPRESSION FOR A \r\nFEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ISSUING WATCHES OR WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 12.0N  52.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 12.5N  55.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.5N  58.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.5N  61.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N  63.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N  67.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS WELL ORGANIZED...WITH\r\nGOOD BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...VISIBLE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  THIS WAS\r\nALSO CONFIRMED BY A TRMM OVERPASS AT 1728Z.  THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY\r\nSUBSTANTIAL OVERALL CIRCULATION...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS EXPANDING WESTWARD.  THERE IS A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOR SHEAR AXIS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL 200 MB FORECAST SHOWS THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING INTO AN\r\nINVERTED TROUGH AND SHIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THIS\r\nWOULD FAVOR EVENTUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF VERTICAL COUPLING..NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nIS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE DUE TO STRONG LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW\r\nWHICH CAN ALSO IMPART NET WESTERLY SHEAR.  ASSUMING THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES...INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR.  DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR \r\nA PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD CURRENT MOTION...275/20.  THIS IS \r\nWELL SUPPORTED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS \r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH \r\nSHOULD MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 12.1N  54.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.5N  57.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N  60.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.5N  63.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.5N  66.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N  69.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE BENEATH THE MASS OF CONVECTION THAT HAS\r\nPERSISTED FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY REMAINS 30 KNOTS AS WE WAIT TO SEE IF THE CONVECTION\r\nPERSISTS A BIT LONGER AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND TO SEE WHAT\r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS IN THE MORNING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD...275 AT 20 KNOTS.  NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS.  GFS AND GFDL TAKE THE CYCLONE DUE\r\nWESTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS...WHILE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ON THE RIGHT\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THESE FOUR MODELS\r\nAND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND A\r\nBIT SLOWER BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KYLE.\r\n\r\nTHE WEAK TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND ALLOW AN ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nBUILD OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...THE WEAK\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLACKEN FURTHER AND REMAIN WEAK WHEN THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE\r\nWARMER WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 12.2N  56.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 12.6N  58.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 13.4N  62.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.1N  65.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N  67.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N  70.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS WEST OF \r\nTHE CONVECTION.  THERE IS ALSO SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE \r\nCIRCULATION IS CLOSED AS QUIKSCAT DATA FROM LAST EVENING INDICATED \r\nTHE DEPRESSION MAY BE AN OPEN WAVE.  BECAUSE OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES \r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE \r\nWILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING TO ANSWER THESE \r\nQUESTIONS.  IF THE PLANE FINDS A TROPICAL STORM IT WILL REQUIRE US \r\nTO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS QUICKLY.  \r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING STEERED WESTWARD BY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/20 KT. THE \r\nLATEST GFS MODEL SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS RUN.  THE GFS SOLUTION MAY BE INFLUENCED BY A WEAKNESS IN \r\nTHE RIDGE CAUSED BY TROPICAL STORM KYLE.  IN ANY CASE...MOST OF THE \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AS DOES THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN \r\nEDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ASSUMING \r\nTHAT THE PLANE FINDS A CLOSED CIRCULATION....THE FORECAST IS FOR \r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nBUT IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 12.7N  58.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.2N  61.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.0N  64.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 14.8N  67.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 15.6N  69.3W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N  72.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nAS FAR AS THE CONVECTION IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER...SURFACE \r\nOBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS ELONGATED WEST TO EAST AND \r\nTHE ADVISORY POSITION IS A FULL DEGREE OR MORE WEST OF THE SATELLITE \r\nPOSITONS...WHICH ARE BACK INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. DURING THE PAST \r\nHOUR...BARBADOS HAS REPORTED WINDS OF 36 KT WITH GUSTS TO 48 KT IN A \r\nLIGHT SHOWER. THESE WINDS MAY BE CAUSED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS \r\nBRINGING THE 40 KT GRADIENT-LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS SEEN \r\nIN THE BARBADOS 12Z SOUNDING. RECON IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE \r\nSYSTEM AND MAY FIND SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FARTHER \r\nEAST IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...AT WHICH TIME A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL \r\nBE ISSUED UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE \r\nCENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE \r\nDEPRESSION STILL APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN \r\nSTEERING FEATURE IS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS \r\nPATTERN IS FORECAST TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 TO 48 \r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND \r\nTRY TO BRING THE CYCLONE MORE POLEWARD. THE AVN/GFS AND AVN/GFS \r\nENSEMBLE MODELS ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC GUIDANCE SUITE AND THEY \r\nBRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS PUERTO RICO IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS MAY BE \r\nPREMATURE SINCE THE MODELS KEEP TD13 AS A VERY WEAK CYCLONE. THE \r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A \r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN \r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS ALSO JUST A LITTLE EAST \r\nOF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nAS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY SLOWS DOWN...THE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME \r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ALSO \r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 70 KT IN 60 HOURS. RAPID DEVELOPMENT DOES \r\nNOT APPEAR LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES \r\nAND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT CONDITIONS BECOME MUCH MORE \r\nFAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS \r\nSOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION IN THE \r\nLATER PERIODS DICTATES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN \r\nCONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 12.8N  59.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.6N  62.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.3N  64.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.3N  67.4W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.2N  69.4W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N  73.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM \r\nLILI HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION IS \r\nNOW BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND \r\nWIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND 54 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM BARBADOS AND \r\nST. LUCIA...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON \r\nA 23/1712Z RECON WIND SPEED OF 64 KT AT 1500 FT. THIS EQUATES TO \r\nROUGHLY 51 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL \r\nLAGGING ABOUT 30 NMI BEHIND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS MUCH \r\nCLOSER NOW THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN \r\nALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS \r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. HOWEVER...THE NHC \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS CONVERGENT NOW WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS \r\nTAKING LILI MORE WESTWARD...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED \r\nTHEIR PREVIOUS TREND OF TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE POLEWARD. THE GFDL \r\nMODEL APPEARS TO BE FAST AND TAKES LILI TO JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN \r\n72 HOURS AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER HURRICANE. THE GLOBAL MODELS... \r\nESPECIALLY THE GFS/AVN AND GFS/AVN ENSEMBLE MODELS...HAVE MADE A \r\nLARGE WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT OF MORE THAN 150 NMI. GIVEN THE SMALL \r\nSIZE OF LILI AND ITS CURRENT LOW LATITUDE POSITION...I BELIEVE THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE TOO MUCH OF A POLEWARD BIAS. BUT BY 48 \r\nHOURS...THE SUBTROPCIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES \r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...BUT REMAINS INTACT AS TROPICAL STORMS KYLE \r\nAND ISIDORE MOVE AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL-GFDN \r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR \r\nAND LILI IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT \r\nSOONER. THE POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS FOR SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING TO \r\nOCCUR BY 48 HOURS WHEN LILI IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. \r\nHOWEVER...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION DICTATES THAT THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST REMAIN A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 12.6N  61.2W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.3N  63.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.2N  66.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.2N  68.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  70.4W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  74.0W    80 KTS..NEAR HAITI\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE SHEARED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING TO ADVANCE\r\nWEST AND AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KNOTS FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES...AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KNOTS...EQUATING ROUGHLY TO 35\r\nKNOTS AT THE SURFACE...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT\r\nHAS YET TO SAMPLE THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE MOST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION IS LOCATED.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO 1006 MB BASED UPON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD...275/15.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A MORE POLEWARD MOTION...DUE TO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THAT WOULD TAKE\r\nTHE SYSTEM OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE MODELS\r\nREGARDING A TURN TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.\r\nTHE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER VENEZUELA IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHOULD THEN\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND REDUCE THE SHEAR IMPACTING\r\nTHE SYSTEM...AND THE SLOWER SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCONVECTION AND LOW LEVEL CENTER TO BE SUPERIMPOSED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY THE TERRAIN OF\r\nHISPANIOLA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 12.7N  62.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 13.8N  64.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N  67.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.1N  69.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N  70.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N  73.0W    70 KTS...NEAR HAITI\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-23 16:30:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1230 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM LILI \r\nBASED ON AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORT OF 58 KT AT 1000 \r\nFT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/17. ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD \r\nADJUSTMENT WAS WAS MADE OUT TO 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE \r\nSOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE RECON VORTEX MESSAGE. OF \r\nCOURSE...THE FARTHER SOUTH AND FARTHER WEST THAT LILI TRACKS...THE \r\nLESS LIKELY THE AVN/GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WILL VERIFY IN TAKING THE \r\nCYCLONE POLEWARD ACROSS PUERTO RICO.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1530Z 12.4N  59.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N  62.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.9N  64.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.9N  67.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N  69.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N  73.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nEXTRAPOLATION OF THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FIX...\r\n0502 UTC...AGAINST THE FIRST IR IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE PERIOD\r\nSTILL INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS WEST OF THE MID LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER/AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 59 KT AT 1500 FEET WERE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT AT 0333 UTC WHICH REDUCES TO 48 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KNOTS FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...CLOSER\r\nTO THE RECON WIND VALUES FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD...275/17. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A MORE\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION...DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...THAT WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER HAITI JUST BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AS WELL\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. IF SUBSEQUENT GLOBAL MODEL RUNS\r\nCONTINUE TO INDICATE A NORTHWARD TURN FOR LILI...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nOR HURRICANE WATCH MAY ISSUED FOR HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER\r\nVENEZUELA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ALLOWING FOR\r\nINCREASING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. THE\r\nINCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF LILI SHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION OF THE OVERALL\r\nSHEAR OVER THE STORM. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES SUCH AS SCENARIO AND\r\nBRINGS LILI TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...EXCEPT AT 72\r\nHOURS WHEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH\r\nTHE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 13.0N  64.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 13.7N  66.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.7N  69.2W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.1N  70.7W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  72.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N  74.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\nAND AIR FORCE RECON REPORTED AN 800 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 76 KT IN \r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO \r\n60 KT. THE PRESSURE OF 1004 MB TO 1006 MB IS RATHER HIGH...BUT THE \r\nLAST RECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE \r\nSTARTING TO TUCK IN CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. RECON FIX POSITONS SUGGEST \r\nTHAT LILI HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS POSSIBLY TURNING MORE TOWARD THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO WALK THEIR FORECAST \r\nTRACKS STEADILY WESTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN WINDSHIELD-\r\nWIPERING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI FOR THE PAST 6 MODEL RUNS. ALL OF \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING A STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST \r\nORIENTED RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BETWEEN ISIDORE AND LILI \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THEY CONTINUE TO DRIVE LILI \r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO THE RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS. WITH KYLE FORECAST TO \r\nSTRENGTHEN INTO A POSSIBLE HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...MY FEELING \r\nIS THAT THERE WILL BE A SYMPATHETIC RIDGE BUILD BETWEEN KYLE AND \r\nLILI...WHICH MAY KEEP LILI MOVING MORE WESTWARD THAN NORTHWARD. AS \r\nSUCH...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nLILI IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY RIGHT NOW...DESPITE THE \r\nPRESSURE DISPARITY. SINCE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...LILI COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR BY \r\nEARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN ACROSS \r\nTHE CARIBBEAN FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS \r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS \r\nLILI TO AROUND 90 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 13.2N  65.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N  67.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N  69.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 16.3N  71.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N  72.8W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-WEST. THE PRESSURE\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO RISE SLIGHTLY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER VENEZUELA\r\nHAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS LILI.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. RECON FIX POSITIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT LILI HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME MORE. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALSO \r\nCONTINUED TO WALK THEIR FORECAST TRACKS STEADILY WESTWARD...WHILE \r\nTHE GFDL MODEL HAS FLOPPED BACK TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA. ALL OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE AGREE ON KEEPING A STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST \r\nORIENTED RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BETWEEN ISIDORE AND LILI\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEY ARE EQUALLY CONSISTENT ON \r\nWANTING TO DRIVE LILI NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE AFTER \r\n48 HOURS. ONCE AGAIN...WITH KYLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A  \r\nHURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS...MY FEELING IS THAT THE SYMPATHETIC RIDGE \r\nBETWEEN KYLE AND LILI WILL HOLD AND MAY EVEN STRENGTHEN...WHICH \r\nSHOULD KEEP LILI MOVING MORE WESTWARD THAN POLEWARD THROUGH AT LEAST \r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS. SINCE THERE WAS SUCH A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT IN \r\nTHE NHC GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS \r\nOUTSIDE THE RIGHT EDGE OF MODEL ENVELOPE AND HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE \r\nTO THE LEFT OR WESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK THEN \r\nCOMES BACK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 48- AND 72-HOUR TRACK POSITIONS OUT \r\nOF RESPECT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NOW TAKE LILI ACROSS EASTERN \r\nCUBA OR THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.\r\n \r\nWHILE LILI IS NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...IT \r\nCOULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS \r\nSLOWED DOWN SOME MORE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STARTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND THIS \r\n...COMBINED WITH THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...SHOULD ALLOW THE \r\nINNER-CORE TO BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION \r\nTONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW PATTERN AHEAD OF \r\nLILI ALSO FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS LILI TO 87 \r\nKT IN 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN \r\nCOAST OF HAITI. THE INTENSITY WAS BROUGHT DOWN TO 65 KT AT 72 HOURS \r\nDUE TO EXPECTED TERRAIN INTERACTION OVER THE TIBURON PENINSULA OF \r\nHAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 13.4N  66.6W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 14.1N  68.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.2N  70.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.6N  72.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.2N  73.8W    85 KTS...NEAR SOUTHERN HAITI\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N  75.0W    65 KTS...NEAR EASTERN CUBA\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LILI THIS EVENING \r\nWAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN \r\nEARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION NEAR 15.7N \r\n65.5W...HOWEVER RECON ONLY FOUND EASTERLY WINDS OVER THAT \r\nAREA...SUGGESTING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS.   \r\nTHE PLANE DID FIND A LARGE AREA OF 35-45 KT EASTERLY WINDS AT FLIGHT \r\nLEVEL...AND FAIRLY STRONG EAST WINDS UP TO 37 KT AT THE SURFACE.  \r\nTHIS IS THE BASIS FOR REDUCING THE WINDS TO 35 KT AS OUR INITIAL \r\nVALUE.  LILI APPEARS VERY RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS \r\nCOMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY SHEAR OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS \r\nSTRUGGLING.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS LEFT INVARIANT THROUGHOUT \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 280/9.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM STRUCTURE AS MENTIONED ABOVE.  NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH \r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BEING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE \r\nSUITE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 13.7N  67.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 14.4N  69.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.7N  71.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.2N  73.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.7N  73.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 21.4N  75.2W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST INFRARED IMAGES AFTER THE GOES ECLIPSE PERIOD \r\nCONFIRM WHAT RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND EARLIER TONIGHT...\r\nA DISORGANIZED TROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED \r\nCIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. ANOTHER RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nBE IN THE AREA AROUND 1200 UTC TO MAKE ANOTHER DETERMINATION. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS FROM ALL THREE \r\nAGENCIES INDICATING THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM \r\nABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY AND \r\nMAINTAINED THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...285/10. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STORM STRUCTURE \r\nAS MENTIONED ABOVE AND IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN FOR LILI\r\nTAKING THE STORM ACROSS HISPANIOLA OR EASTERN CUBA AND EVENTUALLY \r\nINTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 72 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK \r\nREMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 14.1N  68.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.8N  70.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.2N  72.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N  73.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  74.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N  76.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nLILI REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY RECON WIND DATA THIS \r\nMORNING. A WEAK CLOSED CIRCULATION WAS INDICATED IN THE WIND DATA \r\nNEAR 13.7N 68.7W...BUT IT WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE A  \r\nVORTEX MESSAGE. 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT TO THE NORTHEAST \r\nAND 45 KT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WERE ALSO REPORTED. DUE TO THE \r\nUNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE BROAD \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...I DID NOT WANT TO MAKE TOO MUCH OF A \r\nSOUTHWARD RELOCATION SINCE A NEW CENTER COULD REFORM FARTHER NORTH \r\nALONG THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE STRONGER CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10...EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\nWAS RELOCATED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS. \r\nTHE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS WITH THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AND THE GFDN MODEL TAKING LILI ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...WHILE \r\nTHE GFDL...THE BAM MODELS...AND THE AVN/GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN \r\nMODEL TAKING THE CYCLONE BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEAST CUBA. SINCE \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR WESTWARD SHIFT OVER THE PAST \r\n3 DAYS...I HAVE SHIFTED THE OFFICIAL TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR \r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT \r\nLOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PRECLUDES SHIFTING THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nAGAIN...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER WITH RESPECT TO THE DEEP CONVECTION REQUIRES THAT THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE \r\nPRESENT SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST TO \r\nWEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS AND LESS THAN 5 KT BY 48 HOURS \r\nACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY SUGGEST THAT SOME \r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR...ASSUMING WE STILL HAVE A \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 14.1N  69.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.7N  70.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.8N  72.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.1N  73.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  74.9W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N  76.5W    55 KTS...NEAR EASTERN CUBA\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nLILI HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON RECON AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA.  HOWEVER...RECON DATA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON STILL\r\nSHOWED A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS LOCATED ALONG THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  RECON WIND DATA INDICATED A\r\nWEAK VORTEX NEAR 14.2N 69.1W WITH A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...BUT IT WAS\r\nNOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR A VORTEX MESSAGE TO BE GENERATED.  1500 FT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT...ROUGHLY 40 KT AT THE SURFACE...WERE\r\nINDICATED NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER MAY\r\nREFORMING A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH NEAR THE STRONGER\r\nCONVECTION...BASED ON THE 30 KT EAST WIND JUST NORTH OF THE RECON\r\nCENTER POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION 290/06. THE DECREASE IN FORWARD IS PROBABLY DUE \r\nTO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TRYING TO RE-DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE EAST \r\nNEAR THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT \r\nINTO TWO CAMPS WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE AVN/GFS 10-MEMBER \r\nENSEMBLE MODEL...AND THE GFDN MODEL BEING TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS OFFICAL FORECAST TRACKS...WHILE THE GFDL...THE BAM \r\nMODELS...AND CLIPER MODELS ARE NEAR JAMAICA. THE GFDL MODEL HAS DONE \r\nITS USUAL DAILY FLIP-FLOP AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN 72 \r\nHOURS. WHAT IS MOST INTERESTING IS THE SHARP RIGHT TURN THAT THE \r\nUKMET...NOGAPS ...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS TAKE AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nTHOSE MODELS INSIST ON DRIVING LILI NORTHWARD ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO \r\nA STRONG NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE...A SCENARIO THAT I \r\nSTILL CAN FIND NO PHYSICAL REASONING FOR. THE AVN/GFS MODEL HAS NOW \r\nABANDONED ITS PREVIOUS NORTHWARD JOG ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IS \r\nSTRIKINGLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE LAST 8 NHC OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACKS AND NOW TAKES LILI ACROSS SOUTHEAST CUBA IN 60 TO 72 \r\nHOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES \r\nTHAT SEPARATES LILI FROM KYLE AND ISIODORE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN \r\nINTACT AND IN THE SAME PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GULFSTREAM-IV AIRCRAFT WILL BE MAKING A \r\nSYNOPTIC FLIGHT TO THE NORTH OF LILI AT 00Z. THAT DATA SHOULD \r\nPROVIDE SOME INTERESTING MODEL OUTPUT FOR THE 06Z FORECAST CYCLE.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL...THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME. THE\r\nSOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CURRENTLY ON THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS AND LESS THAN 5 KT BY 48 HOURS\r\nACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS WOULD IMPLY THAT AT LEAST SOME \r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 14.4N  69.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N  71.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N  72.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.3N  74.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N  74.7W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N  76.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n\r\nLILI LOOKS VERY RAGGED IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTOS.  TOPS HAVE \r\nBEEN WARMING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE WEAK AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CENTER.  LATEST \r\nAIRFORCE RECON FOUND THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE \r\nAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM CALCULATED SURFACE \r\nWIND FROM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 37 KTS.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KTS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/06.  AS THE SYSTEM HAS PROGRESSED \r\nWESTWARD DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS THE SPLIT IN THE GLOBAL MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS SLOWLY MERGING INTO ONE CAMP.  THE GENERAL CHANGE IN THE \r\nCAMP THAT WANTED TO GO NORTH OF CUBA HAS GRADUALLY TURNED MORE \r\nWESTWARD AND IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES WEST FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEY \r\nWILL ALL BE SOUTH OF CUBA.  WITH THIS IN MIND THE FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nBROUGHT SOUTH OF CUBA. BASED UPON THIS TRACK THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT \r\nSTRENGTHEN UNTIL IT GETS WEST OF JAMAICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 14.2N  70.3W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.6N  71.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.3N  72.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N  74.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N  75.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N  78.3W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nLILI CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY RAGGED IN THE INFRARED SATELLITE PHOTOS. \r\nTHE TOTAL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX \r\nHOURS.  QUIK SCAT WINDS AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST RECON SUGGEST \r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRANSFORMING BACK TO A WAVE.  WE WILL KEEP \r\nLILI AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS PACKAGE AND WAIT FOR THE VISIBLE \r\nPICTURES AND EARLY MORNING RECON BEFORE ANY CHANGES ARE MADE.  IF IT \r\nIS A WAVE ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED ON THE NEXT \r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/05.  IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A WAVE IT \r\nSHOULD BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD AND WOULD HAVE AN OPPOTUNITY TO \r\nRE-DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY \r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF SEVERAL OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 14.5N  70.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N  71.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N  73.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.6N  74.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.8N  76.1W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N  78.9W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lili","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN ALMOST 48 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN ABLE TO SEND \r\nA VORTEX MESSAGE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE \r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LILI IS A BROAD...ELONGATED AREA OF \r\nLOW PRESSURE WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION OR MINIMUM \r\nPRESSURE.  THEREFORE LILI IS NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO \r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.  THERE STILL MAY BE A FEW \r\nCONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED POCKETS OF WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  \r\nTHIS FORMALLY REQUIRES THE LOWERING OF THE TROPICAL STORM \r\nWATCHES...HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY THAT THE \r\nREMNANTS OF LILI WILL REGENERATE...ALL INTERESTS IN JAMAICA AND \r\nALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HAITA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS \r\nOF THIS SYSTEM...THROUGH HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AND THE TROPICAL \r\nWEATHER OUTLOOK.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION...FORECAST POSITIONS ARE \r\nGIVEN BELOW.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 15.2N  72.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N  73.9W    30 KTS...BROAD REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.9N  75.4W    30 KTS...BROAD REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N  77.0W    35 KTS...REGENERATING\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N  78.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N  82.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lili","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nA 26/2319Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH LILI HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nTHAT A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD\r\nNOW EXISTS.  IN ADDITION...A 26/2309Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTION.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED TO -80 TO -85C\r\nDURING THE PAST 4 HOURS AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH IT IS STILL SHEARED.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS INFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION LILI.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSERVATIVELY\r\nBASED ON QUIKSCAT WIND DATA.  HOWEVER...  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND\r\nSTRONGER WINDS IN GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE LIKELY EXIST IN THE\r\nDEEPER CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nASSESSMENT OF THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/05...WITH EMPHASIS ON THE WORD \r\nESTIMATE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LILI MOVING \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA IN \r\nABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS ONCE LILI CLEARS JAMAICA. THE FORWARD SPEED OF LILI \r\nIS PROBLEMATIC WITH MODEL SPEEDS RANGING FROM AS LOW 5 KT BY THE \r\nAVN/GFS MODEL AND AS HIGH AS 12 KT BY THE NOGAPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK WILL USE A MIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD VALUE OF 7 TO 8 KT UNTIL A GOOD \r\nCENTER LOCATION AND INITIAL FORWARD MOTION CAN BE ESTABLISHED BY \r\nRECON DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING LILIS DEVELOPMENT THE \r\nPAST FEW DAYS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF LETTING UP SOME DURING THE PAST 12 \r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL EXISTS AND ALL OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO LET \r\nUP. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH...ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THE ELONGATED \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF LILI WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE RAPIDLY \r\nWESTWARD...WHICH WILL PLACE LILI UNDER MORE FAVORABLE EASTERLY \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES WITHIN THE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS LILI TO 75 KT IN \r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 15.7N  73.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N  74.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 17.0N  75.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N  76.3W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 18.9N  77.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N  80.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lili","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED BUT THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT LILI IS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS UNTIL A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS.  AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING AND UNANIMOUSLY...ALL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nA 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER LILI.  THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED\r\nWITH THE HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OR HIGH OCTANE FUEL WHICH\r\nPREVAILS OVER THE OCEAN SOUTH OF CUBA...WOULD PROVIDE A VERY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nBOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS MAKE LILI A POWERFUL HURRICANE SOUTH OF\r\nCUBA...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER.\r\n\r\nLILI HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS.  THIS\r\nMOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF\r\nREFORMATION AND THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  HOWEVER...LILI\r\nSHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND WILL LIKELY BE MEANDERING\r\nBETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 72\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND FROM\r\nTHE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING WITH\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE WHICH ON AVERAGE SHOW ANOTHER STRONG HURRICANE\r\nSOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS A CHANCE OF TROUBLE IN THE HORIZON.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 16.1N  75.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N  76.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N  77.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N  78.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  79.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N  80.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n\r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LILI HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH THE FORMATION OF A DENSE OVERCAST AND SOME\r\nEVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 1003 AND 1005 MB...ALONG\r\nWITH 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 80 N MI NORTHEAST AND 45 N MI\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THUS...LILI HAS RE-GAINED TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...BUT IS ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE.  THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT SOME SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING LILI.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE CENTER IS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nTHOUGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/6. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF LILI...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER TIME\r\nWITH PERHAPS SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN 12-36 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nLILI TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH A BIT MORE\r\nNORTHERLY MOTION DURING THE TIME THE RIDGE IS AT ITS WEAKEST.  NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  INDEED...\r\nMUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS LILI ALMOST DUE WEST AFTER 48 HR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW QUITE AS SHARP OF A TURN AT THIS\r\nTIME...CALLING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 36 HR \r\nFOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS TRACK IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/AVN MODEL.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION\r\nCOULD OCCUR TODAY AS THE BROAD CENTER BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.\r\n \r\nWHILE LILI STILLS SHOWS SIGNS OF BEING SHEARED...IT IS DEVELOPING\r\nOUTFLOW TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST TIME.  THIS IS A SIGN THAT THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FINALLY BECOMING FAVORABLE AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF LILI IS MOVING WESTWARD\r\nSOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE STORM...AND THIS IS ALLOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVER THE STORM.\r\nA COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL SHEAR...INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA...AND\r\nINTERNAL DISORGANIZATION SHOULD SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...LILI SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 16.3N  74.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 16.8N  75.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.9N  76.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.8N  77.9W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N  78.9W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N  80.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF LILI JUMPED A COUPLE OF TIMES TODAY...FIRST TO THE NORTH\r\nAND THEN BACK TO THE WEST.  THE PLANE MEASURED 48 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.  BASED ON THIS\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 40 KT...WHICH GOES WILL WITH\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT FROM\r\nSAB..AFWA...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS DISAPPEARED INTO THE OVERCAST CREATED BY\r\nPERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER JUMPS CONTINUE TO MAKE THE INITIAL MOTION RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE 305/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTO THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF LILI...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER TIME\r\nWITH PERHAPS SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN 12-36 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nLILI TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH A BIT MORE\r\nNORTHERLY MOTION DURING THE TIME THE RIDGE IS AT ITS WEAKEST.  NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AS GOOD OF AGREEMENT AS EARLIER...AS\r\nSEVERAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS.\r\nTHE MOST NOTABLE SHIFTS WERE TO THE GFS/AVN AND THE AVN ENSEMBLE\r\nMEANS...WHICH MOVED LILI NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE\r\nTURNING THE STORM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UP THE LENGTH OF THE ISLAND.\r\nOTHER MODELS CALL FOR LILI TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN CUBA AND\r\nJAMAICA AND THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...ALONG THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN BODY OF GUIDANCE BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nRIGHT-OUTLYING AVN AND AVN ENSEMBLES.  NOTE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nERRATIC MOTION COULD OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE BROAD CENTER BECOMES\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW OF LILI CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL\r\nEVIDENCE OF SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW.  CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN\r\nIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN MOVES\r\nWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORM.  A COMBINATION OF RESIDUAL SHEAR...\r\nINTERACTION WITH JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION\r\nSHOULD SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...LILI SHOULD STRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 16.9N  75.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 17.8N  76.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 18.8N  76.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N  77.8W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.4N  79.1W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  81.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2002\r\n \r\nAN AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER AT 00Z.  BASED ON THIS FIX...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/7 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LARGE SCALE SCENARIO\r\nREMAINS THE SAME.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LILI IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT TURNING THE STORM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nHOWEVER A NUMBER OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS\r\nSHOW THE STORM MOVING NEARLY DUE NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE FOR A DAY\r\nOR SO BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  I DON'T QUITE UNDERSTAND\r\nTHE MECHANISM FOR THIS NORTHWARD MOTION...BUT SINCE THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION APPEARS TO ALREADY BE DOING SO...I AM SHIFTING THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE\r\nGFS MODEL WHICH IS THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER AND HAS THE CENTER \r\nAPPROACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nAPPARENT VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY OR FORECAST TO BE NEARBY.  THE ONLY\r\nPOTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE STORM TRACK SO CLOSE TO OR OVER\r\nCUBA.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AGGRESSIVELY INTENSIFIES LILI TO 90 KNOTS\r\nOR SO EVEN WHEN LAND IS CONSIDERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SO\r\nAGGRESSIVE WITH ONLY 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SO CLOSE TO CUBA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 17.7N  75.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 18.6N  75.4W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 19.7N  76.1W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 20.6N  77.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 21.3N  79.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 22.0N  81.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":27,"Date":"2002-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE AREA AND FOUND A VERY\r\nWELL DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS\r\nOF 51 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 999 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS EXPANDING AND THE AREA OF COVERAGE HAS INCREASED BUT THE\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN CONSISTS OF TWO SHAPELESS BLOBS OF THUNDERSTORMS.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. DESPITE THE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT AND WARM OCEAN...LITTLE CHANGE IS INDICATED IN THE NEAR\r\nTERM WHILE THE CIRCULATION OF LILI INTERACTS WITH JAMAICA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA.  ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM\r\nTHERE...STREGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.  BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MAKE LILI A\r\nSTRONG HURRICANE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nLILI HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING \r\nCURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE \r\nMEANDERING BETWEEN JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA FOR A DAY OR SO. A \r\nRATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES \r\nAND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. THIS PATTERN WOULD \r\nSTEER LILI MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS BEYOND 36 \r\nHOURS. DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR TO THE NORTH LILI MOVES INITIALLY \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT WOULD MAKE THE WESTWARD TURN EITHER \r\nNORTH OF CUBA OR SOUTH OF CUBA. ONLY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL AND ITS \r\nDERIVATIVES FORECAST LILI TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG OR NEAR THE \r\nNORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THEN THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE REST OF THE \r\nMODELS SHOW THE SAME TREND BUT KEEP LILI SOUTH OF CUBA AND SO DOES \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nIT IS LIKE THE OLD SAYING THAT ALL ROADS LEAD TO ROME...WELL...ALL \r\nMODELS LEAD LILI TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 17.8N  75.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.6N  76.1W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  77.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N  78.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  79.1W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 22.0N  82.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":28,"Date":"2002-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n\r\nAFTER FINDING A GOOD CENTER AROUND 06Z...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS \r\nINDICATED A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER NEAR THE PREVIOUS LOCATION...AND \r\nRECENT DATA SUGGESTS A NEW CENTER MAY BE REFORMING TO THE NORTHEAST \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED THEN SOME RELOCATION \r\nWILL BE NECESSARY.  FOR THE TIME BEING THE INITIAL POSITION AND \r\nSHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK ARE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST \r\nSYSTEMS 12-24 HOUR FORECAST SHOWED A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD \r\nJOG...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  A \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE \r\nNORTH OF LILI. THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS \r\nONES...TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN \r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH EVIDENCE OF \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING AND WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE \r\nCIRRUS MOTIONS...THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED.  THEREFORE ONLY \r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...AND THIS MAY BE INTERRUPTED BY \r\nINTERACTION WITH LAND...ESPECIALLY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF \r\nEASTERN CUBA.\r\n\r\nBEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL FOR \r\nLILI TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 18.1N  75.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.7N  76.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  77.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 20.7N  78.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 21.3N  79.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 22.5N  82.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":29,"Date":"2002-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n\r\nON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...LILI SHOWS SOME BANDING FEATURES BUT \r\nTHE ENHANCED IR PRESENTATION IS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH RAGGED-LOOKING \r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND GENERALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS.   THERE IS A \r\nWELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN ESTABLISHED OVER THE \r\nCYCLONE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND \r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE \r\nINTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASS OF \r\nEASTERN CUBA COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THE SIERRA MAESTRA \r\nRANGE NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA HAS PEAKS IN EXCESS OF \r\n6000 FT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PRESUMES THAT THE CENTER \r\nWILL REMAIN MAINLY OVER WATER...AND THEREFORE SHOWS SLOW \r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS MORNING...THE CENTER REFORMED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS \r\nPREVIOUS LOCATION.  HOWEVER IT NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING \r\nNORTHWESTWARD...320/3.  THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM IS A MID-LEVEL \r\nRIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS \r\nARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IN \r\nPARTICULAR THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...HAS SHIFTED A \r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THOSE FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES...AND ON THE \r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 18.6N  75.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 19.3N  76.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N  77.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  79.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  80.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  83.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":30,"Date":"2002-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 28 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/5 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SAME SCENARIO AS EARLIER.  A DEEP LAYER\r\nMEAN RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF LILY AND FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... \r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NOTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN \r\nAGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  ONLY THE \r\nAVIATION MODEL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SO IS LILY GOING TO MOVE SOUTH OF \r\nCUBA...OVER CUBA...OR NORTH OF CUBA?  THESE THREE SCENARIOUS ALL \r\nTAKE PLACE WITHIN A HEADING FROM 300 TO 330 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 3 \r\nDAYS.  SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.  IN ANY CASE...THE STORM MAY \r\nFIND ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 3 DAYS WHERE \r\nCONDITIONS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nA RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1002 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A \r\nMAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 50 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST \r\nQUADRANT.  SO THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS.  ALL \r\nFACTORS LOOK GOOD FOR INTENSIFICATION.  LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...GOOD \r\nOUFLOW PATTERN AND BANDING FEATURES.  THE AIRCRAFT EVEN REPORTED \r\nEVIDENCE OF A POORLY DEFINED EYE FEATURE...UNUSUAL FOR A 40-KNOT \r\nSTORM.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT WELL \r\nORGANIZED AND KEEPS SPUTTERING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A FIVE KNOT REDUCTION AT ALL FORECAST \r\nPERIODS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 5 KNOT DECREASE IN INITIAL WIND SPEED.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 19.0N  76.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.6N  77.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.6N  78.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 21.6N  79.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 22.4N  81.4W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 23.8N  84.6W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":31,"Date":"2002-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES FROM 0152Z...0338Z...AND 0505Z INDICATED A DUE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION HOWEVER MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES...AFTER THE\r\nECLIPSE BLACKOUT...SUGGESTED A MORE NORTHWARD POSITION.  BLENDING\r\nTHE FIXES GIVES ROUGHLY A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...290/6.  ALTHOUGH\r\nSOME MORE ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR TODAY...IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN\r\nGOOD CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LILI FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL MODEL...THE GFS...SHOWS SOME STAIR-STEPPED\r\nMOVEMENT...MORE NORTH...THEN MORE WEST...MORE NORTH...ETC...OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE MAINTAINING AN OVERALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING.  AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FAIRLY SUBTLE\r\nCHANGES IN HEADING COULD MAKE THE DIFFERENCE IN LILI STAYING SOUTH\r\nOF CUBA...MOVING OVER CUBA...OR EVEN ENTERING THE STRAITS OF\r\nFLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  IN ANY EVENT...BY 3 DAYS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE\r\nMOVED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED AN\r\nEYEWALL STRUCTURE...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST ON THE LAST REPORT.\r\nEVEN SO...THE IR SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS STILL NOT THAT\r\nIMPRESSIVE...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AT THIS\r\nTIME.  HOWEVER THE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A PERSISTENT BALL OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THERE IS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER LILI AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS...AND SHOULD\r\nREMAIN...WEAK.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT AT A SLOW\r\nRATE SINCE THE SYSTEM STILL DOES NOT LOOK THAT WELL ORGANIZED.\r\nAFTER LILI MOVES INTO THE GULF...IT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO\r\nBECOME A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 19.1N  77.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.6N  77.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 20.6N  79.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 21.6N  80.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 22.4N  82.3W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N  85.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":32,"Date":"2002-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE LILI HAS MOVED \r\nWESTWARD...WITH SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS \r\nDEVELOPED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND RECON DATA INDICATES AN \r\n8-11 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS FORMED. THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL \r\nWIND REPORTED THIS MORNING HAS BEEN 57 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 46 KT AT \r\nTHE SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS WHILE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING \r\nFEATURES HAVE IMPROVED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06...EVEN THOUGH LILI HAS MADE A \r\nSLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LAST TWO RECON FIXES. SINCE \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...LILI MAY JUST BE DOING A \r\nSEEING-EYE TRICK BY WOBBLING JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH COAST OF \r\nJAMAICA. HOWEVER...ONCE LILI CLEARS THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA...A \r\nGOOD SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE THAT IS SEEN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF JAMAICA IN \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA WILL PROBABLY ACT TO JOG THE \r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD A LITTLE. BEYOND 12 HOURS...LILI IS EXPECTED TO \r\nTRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND PUSH \r\nWESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGHOUT THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD JOG THAT LILI HAS TAKEN... \r\nALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD ACCORDINGLY. THE \r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL \r\nSUITE...WHILE THE AVN/GFS AND AVN/GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE ON THE \r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFDL IS JUST LEFT OF THE \r\nAVN/GFS MODEL...WHEREAS THE GFDN IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET-NOGAPS \r\nSOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL IN DIRECTION...BUT \r\nSLOWER LIKE THE AVN/GFS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION WAS \r\nINCREASED TO ABOUT 11 KT LIKE THE AVN/GFS MODEL...WHICH IS THE \r\nSLOWEST OF ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. GENERALLY...WHEN A \r\nMODERATE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPS A SMALL DIAMETER EYE...RAPID \r\nINTENSIFICATION USUALLY FOLLOWS. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY TO LAND \r\nWILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THAT FROM HAPPENING...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 \r\nHOURS OR SO. BUT BEYOND THAT...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS APPEAR VERY \r\nFAVORABLE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE LILI \r\nMAKES AN EXPECTED LANDFALL OVER WESTERN CUBA. AS WAS ALLUDED TO IN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LILI HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A \r\nSIGNIFICANT HURRICANE ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF \r\nMEXICO. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS \r\nROBUST AS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS LILI TO 91 KT IN \r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 18.7N  77.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.2N  78.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N  80.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N  81.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N  83.8W    70 KTS...INLAND OVER WRN CUBA\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 24.5N  87.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":33,"Date":"2002-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW \r\nWESTWARD MOTION JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA. LILI HAS A \r\nTIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE THIS IS ONLY 8 \r\nTO 10 NMI IN DIAMETER. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP \r\nAROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO \r\nIMPROVED DURING THE DAY. THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND \r\nREPORTED THIS AFTERNOON WAS 66 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 53 KT AT\r\nTHE SURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT TOO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/04. LILI HAS STEADILY WOBBLED \r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTH COAST OF JAMAICA TODAY. BUT \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY SURGE \r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF JAMAICA WILL PROBABLY JOG LILI NORTHWARD A LITTLE  \r\nONCE THE CYCLONE CLEARS THE WESTERN END OF JAMAICA IN ABOUT 12 \r\nHOURS. BEYOND THAT...THERE IS NO SIGINIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LILI IS EXPECTED TO MOVE \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRENGTHENING\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA \r\nAND THE SOUTHEAST U.S...AND BY 72 HOURS...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF \r\nMEXICO. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONVERGENT AND IS IN \r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TAKING LILI ACROSS WESTERN CUBA IN 36 TO 48 \r\nHOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS REMAIN ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF \r\nTHE MODEL SUITE...WHILE THE AVN/GFS AND AVN/GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE \r\nON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFDL HAS \r\nACTUALLY DONE THE BEST WITH THE OVERALL TRACK AND DIRECTION OF \r\nLILI...ALBEIT TOO FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN \r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE GFDL IN \r\nDIRECTION...BUT SLOWER LIKE THE AVN/GFS MODEL. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC SINCE LILI HAS MAINTAINED \r\nA SMALL DIAMETER EYE ALL DAY. USUALLY...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS \r\nWITH SUCH SYSTEMS...AND THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS \r\nINDICATING THAT ALL FIVE 24-HOUR RAPID INTENSIFICATION CRITERIA HAVE \r\nBEEN FOR THE FIRST TIME. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO JAMAICA \r\nWILL LIKELY PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURING FOR AT LEAST \r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE \r\nEXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR \r\nIN THE 24 TO 36 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD \r\nCERTAINLY OCCUR AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nREMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE \r\nPOSSIBILITY OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BEGINNING AS ALLUDED TO \r\nBY THE RECON FLIGHT CREW DURING THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS LILI TO 94 KT IN 72 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL \r\nMODEL STRENGTHENS LILI TO 102 KT IN 60 HOURS. IT IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY \r\nTO MENTION THAT THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH DID QUITE WELL WITH ISIDORE...BRINGS LILI \r\nUP TO 111 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 18.7N  77.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  78.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N  80.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 21.7N  82.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N  84.7W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 25.4N  88.7W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":34,"Date":"2002-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHE SHORT TERM INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4...BASED ON \r\nAIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO.  THE FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS BASED ON A CONTINUED MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF \r\nA DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED NEAR 30N80W.  THIS \r\nRESULTS IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nAND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nA RECENT GPS DROP FROM THE AIRCRAFT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER \r\nSHOWED WINDS IN THE 70 KNOT RANGE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH \r\nREDUCES TO ABOUT 55 KNOTS FOR A SURFACE WIND.  MOST FACTORS FAVOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION.  AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS A CLOSED EYE WALL FEATURE \r\n20 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE IS THAT THE DEEPEST \r\nCONVECTION IS NOT TOO WELL ORGANIZED BUT THIS COULD CHANGE QUICKLY.  \r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BRINGS THE \r\nWIND SPEED TO AN AGGRESSIVE 90 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS WHEN LILI IS \r\nFORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE \r\nSHIPS MODEL WITHOUT LAND EFFECTS IS TO 95 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  AS \r\nALWAYS WITH INTENSITY FORECASTS...I AM FULLY PREPARED TO BE WRONG IN \r\nEITHER DIRECTION.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 19.2N  78.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 19.9N  79.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N  81.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N  84.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.9N  86.3W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N  90.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":35,"Date":"2002-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n\r\nKYLE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  LOWER-LAYER AVERAGE WINDS\r\nFROM GPS DROPSONDES A FEW HOURS AGO SUPPORTED 58 KT.  THE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE BLACKOUT SHOW A CDO FEATURE WITH A\r\nLOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND...IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA.  EARLIER\r\nAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES FARTHER WEST OF JAMAICA...AND OVER THE AREA OF VERY\r\nHIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF CUBA...STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY.  I CONSIDER THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2\r\nDAYS TO BE A CONSERVATIVE ONE.  LILI SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY TROPICAL CYCLONES...\r\nONLY BRINGS LILI TO 87 KT OVER THE GULF.  PERHAPS THAT IS BECAUSE\r\nTHE WATERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE NOT AS WARM AS THEY ARE TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  ANALYSES FROM NHC SHOW THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDUCTION IN\r\nTHE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER PARTS OF THE GULF TRAVERSED BY ISIDORE\r\nLAST WEEK.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT\r\nTHE GULF WATERS ARE STILL PLENTY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A STRONG\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nAFTER WOBBLING TOWARD THE WEST SEVERAL HOURS AGO...RECENT SATELLITE \r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT LILI IS NOW PRETTY MUCH BACK ON TRACK...WITH AN \r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8.  A PRONOUNCED DEEP-LAYER \r\nANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE \r\nSOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES...SHOWS A MOTION \r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET \r\nOFFICE MODEL IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST THEN MOST...WHEREAS THE GFS \r\nAND GFDL ARE FASTER AND MORE THE NORTH AND EAST.  THIS FORECAST IS \r\nCLOSER TO THE LATTER TWO GUIDANCE TRACKS. \r\n\r\nTHE 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT OBVIOUSLY IMPLIES A THREAT TO THE \r\nNORTHERN OR NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS \r\nSTILL TOO EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE THREAT SINCE THE \r\nAVERAGE ERROR IN THESE 3-DAY TRACK FORECASTS IS OVER 200 MILES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 19.4N  79.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N  80.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 21.3N  82.3W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  84.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 28.0N  91.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":36,"Date":"2002-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT HURRICANE \r\nINTENSITY...AS THE PEAK 850 MB WIND REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE \r\nAIRCRAFT WAS 75 KT...OF WHICH 80 PERCENT IS 60 KT...A GPS DROPSONDE \r\nIN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL SUPPORTS UPGRADING LILI TO A HURRICANE.  \r\nTHIS DROP HAD 81 KT AT 14 METERS ELEVATION...AND A LOW-LAYER MEAN \r\nWIND OF 90 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO ABOUT 73 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE \r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE \r\nADJUSTED VALUES FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  THIS HEADING HAS BEEN QUITE CONSTANT\r\nFOR THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASING.  THE BASIC STEERING FLOW FOR LILI WILL BE PROVIDED BY A\r\nDEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nOVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE\r\nTHREE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN LILI ON\r\nA RELATIVELY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FOCUSES THE ULTIMATE THREAT TO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL CLUSTERED.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLILI APPEARS POISED FOR SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nWATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF ARE HIGH-OCTANE...AND THERE IS A\r\nGOOD INNER CORE STRUCTURE.  ALL FIVE RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nPARAMETERS FROM THE SHIPS MODEL ARE SATISFIED.  THE ONLY NEGATIVE I\r\nCAN SEE IS A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS MODEL THAT INCLUDES\r\nTHE EFFECT OF TOTAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.  LILI WILL HAVE FAVORABLE\r\nWATERS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF IS A LITTLE LESS.  HOWEVER...LILI SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nFAST ENOUGH NOT TO BE AFFECTED BY THE SHALLOWER WARM LAYER THERE.\r\nIN ADDITION...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN GULF IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND\r\nLEAVE A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ANTYCYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE\r\nGULF.  BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE SHOULD HAVE A MAJOR HURRICANE NEARING\r\nTHE GULF COASTLINE IN THREE DAYS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 19.8N  80.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 20.6N  81.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.7N  83.5W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  86.1W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 24.5N  88.5W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 28.0N  92.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":37,"Date":"2002-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORT \r\nINDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING.  ANOTHER \r\nDROPSONDE...THIS ONE FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT AT 1835 Z... \r\nREPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 KT.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...WHICH HAS JUST \r\nBEGUN ITS MISSION...HAS ALREADY REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 KT FROM \r\nTHE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER. GIVEN THE PRESSURE \r\nFALL...I WILL ASSUME THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE NOT BEEN RECENTLY \r\nSAMPLED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  THE \r\nOVERALL APPEARANCE OF LILI HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST \r\n24 HOURS...WITH AN EXPANDING CLOUD PATTERN WITH GOOD BANDING \r\nFEATURES.  OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. THERE IS NO \r\nCHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE \r\nFOR LILI TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/9...AND THIS HEADING HAS BEEN QUITE\r\nCONSTANT FOR THE LAST 18 HOURS.  THE BASIC STEERING FLOW FOR\r\nLILI IS BEING PROVIDED BY A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES THROUGH THE THREE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS ANTICYCLONE\r\nSHOULD MAINTAIN LILI ON A RELATIVELY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND FOCUSES THE\r\nULTIMATE THREAT TO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS EXTREMELY WELL CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY \r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 20.1N  80.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N  81.8W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N  84.0W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N  86.4W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 24.5N  89.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 27.5N  93.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":38,"Date":"2002-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 30 2002\r\n \r\nLILI CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE \r\nCENTER NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF A VERY COLD-TOPPED CENTRAL \r\nDENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5...OR \r\n77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...WHILE 3-HR OBJECTIVE DVORAK \r\nT-NUMBERS ARE ABOUT 80 KT...OR T4.8. HOWEVER...NONE OF THIS APPEARS \r\nTO BE TRANSLATING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED. \r\nWHILE THE SURFACE PRESSURE OF 978 MB SUPPORTS ABOUT 78 KT...THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 70 KT BASED ON A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL \r\nWIND OF 77 KT AND A 934 MB DROPSONDE WIND OF 94 KT. THESE WINDS \r\nCORRESPOND TO APPROXIMATELY 69 KT AND 71 KT SURFACE WINDS... \r\nRESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN THE SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO GOOD TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/9. LILI APPEARS TO HAVE STEADIED ON \r\nTHIS GENERAL COURSE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE LITTLE DEVIATION \r\nABOUT THIS MEAN COURSE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST \r\nUNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD. THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO LIE ALONG 31-32N \r\nLATITUDE AND SHOULD BE THE AXIS OF RECURVATURE AT OR BEYOND 72 \r\nHOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONVERGENT ON A \r\nTRACK ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS AND THEN ENDING \r\nUP NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF LOUISIANA IN 72 HOURS. THE ONLY \r\nUNNERVING PART OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE GFS/AVN 10-MEMBER \r\nENSEMBLE MODEL WHICH TAKES LILI DUE NORTH AFTER 48 HOURS TO A \r\nPOSITION JUST SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES \r\nTHE DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES \r\nTO DIG SOUTHWARD. MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH THAN THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS ARE INDICATING COULD CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE \r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. TO LIFT A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD. THE INCREASING \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD ALSO PUSH \r\nLILI A LITTLE MORE INTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAKING \r\nTHE GFS/AVN ENSEMBLE MODEL A VIABLE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 \r\nHOURS...WITH JUST A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD AT 72 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT \r\nFOR THE GFS/AVN ENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 6 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO \r\nLILI MAY BE STARTING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURES \r\nALSO SUGEGST THIS...SO THE INTENSIFICATION RATE WAS INCREASED DURING \r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS...AFTER WHICH LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA SHOULD \r\nDISRUPT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THE WATER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO \r\nHAS BEEN CHURNED UP PRETTY GOOD BY FORMER HURRICANE ISIDORE...BUT \r\nTHE WATER IS WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION AND ALSO \r\nSUPPORTS MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE GFDL MODEL NOW BRINGS LILI \r\nTO 103 KT IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRINGS LILI UP TO \r\n148 KT IN 72 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS MUCH TOO HIGH GIVEN THE COLD \r\nUPWELLING THAT HAS OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF ISIDORE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 20.7N  81.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 21.8N  83.2W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.1N  85.8W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.5N  88.3W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 25.8N  90.8W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 29.5N  93.0W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":39,"Date":"2002-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RECON INTO LILI...AT 0507Z...HAD A 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  THIS GIVES A\r\nSURFACE WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 75 KT.  THIS VALUE IS USED FOR THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED A BIT MORE BY NOW.  WE WILL SEE WHAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT\r\nFINDS IN A FEW HOURS.  LILI EXHIBITS A SYMMETRICAL CDO PATTERN ON IR\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES WITH ONLY HINTS OF BANDING FEATURES...HOWEVER SSM/I\r\nAND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE RAIN BAND STRUCTURE.\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERE IS LITTLE OR NO\r\nEVIDENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  THE LAND MASSES OF THE\r\nISLE OF PINES AND EXTREME WESTERN CUBA ARE UNLIKELY TO BE\r\nSIGNIFICANT IMPEDIMENTS TO THE DEEPENING PROCESS...AND FOUR OUT OF\r\nTHE FIVE PREDICTORS OF THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST SCHEME ARE\r\nSATISFIED AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONES...AND SHOWS LILI STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nQUITE SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM THE SHIPS INTENSITY PREDICTION \r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...295/11...WHICH WAS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECASTS\r\nFROM PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGES.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE\r\nTO THE TRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE...EXTENDING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED\r\nSTATES...IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE LILI TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE RIDGE...WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO AN\r\nINCREASED HEIGHT GRADIENT IN 1-2 DAYS.  CAVEAT...ALTHOUGH THE NHC \r\nFORECAST SHOWS A LANDFALL POINT IN A LITTLE LESS THAN 72 H...ONE \r\nSHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS \r\nLANDFALL SINCE THE ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY OVER 200 MILES FOR A 72 H \r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 21.3N  82.7W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.2N  84.5W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.4N  86.9W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N  89.5W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.7N  91.7W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 31.0N  93.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":40,"Date":"2002-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nINDICATE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 87 KT AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 971 MB.  BASED ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED\r\nTO 80 KT.  ONE INTERESTING NOTE IS THAT BOTH THE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR\r\nDATA FROM CUBA SHOW A DECAY OF THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HR...WITH THE AIRCRAFT REPORTING LESS THAN 50 PERCENT OF AN\r\nEYEWALL ON THE MOST RECENT PASS.  THIS HAS BEEN ACCOMPANIED BY SOME \r\nWARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS.  MOST LIKELY THIS IS DUE TO LAND\r\nINTERACTION...AS THERE IS NO OBVIOUS METEOROLOGICAL REASON FOR THE\r\nHURRICANE TO PEAK OR WEAKEN RIGHT NOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN \r\nFLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR\r\n28N93W.  BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS OCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF\r\nTHE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE\r\nNEAR 24N93W.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP LILI ON A GENERAL WEST- \r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HR FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS \r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR\r\nLANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 60 HR.\r\nIT IS NOTABLE THOUGH THAT THE AVN/GFS AND THE AVN ENSEMBLES CALL\r\nFOR A TRACK MORE TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nAND NOGAPS CALL FOR A TRACK TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN\r\nTHE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST\r\nNEITHER THE NEW ORLEANS OR HOUSTON/GALVESTON AREAS ARE OUT OF \r\nDANGER.\r\n \r\nLILI CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW AND IS PASSING OVER WARM WATER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CURRENT SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED EYEWALL STRUCTURE\r\nDOES NOT SUGGEST IMMEDIATE RAPID STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL INSTEAD CALL FOR CONTINUED STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE FORECAST GETS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME.  WHILE THE NORTHERN GULF HAS COOLED SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE\r\nPASSAGE OF HANNA AND ISIDORE...IT STILL APPEARS TO BE WARM ENOUGH\r\nTO SUPPORT A HURRICANE OF 105 KT OR STRONGER.  DESPITE THIS...NONE\r\nOF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS LILI PAST 105 KT. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL RESPOND TO THIS BY KEEPING THE INTENSITY \r\nAT 105 KT UNTIL LANDFALL...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LILI \r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AT LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 21.8N  83.7W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N  85.6W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.3N  88.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 26.0N  90.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 28.1N  92.2W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  92.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":41,"Date":"2002-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n \r\nAFTER SPUTTERING A BIT THIS MORNING...LILI HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT \r\nRECOVERY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED SATELLITE \r\nAPPEARANCE...COOLING CONVECTIVE TOPS...AND MUCH BETTER EYE \r\nDEFINITION ON THE CASABLANCA CUBA AND KEY WEST RADARS.  THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 102 KT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE EYE WHILE LILI\r\nWAS OVER CUBA.  BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n90 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nLILI HAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND\r\nTHE MOTION IS NOW 305/13.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE\r\nTO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  WATER \r\nVAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE \r\nCENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA/SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITH A RIDGE \r\nAXIS EXTENDING TO NEAR 28N94W.  BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS \r\nOCCURRING NORTH AND WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL \r\nLOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 24N94W.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP \r\nLILI ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH \r\n36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  \r\nNHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH \r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN \r\nSOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE \r\nRIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION.  GIVEN THE \r\nUNCERTAINTIES OF THE FORECAST NEITHER THE NEW ORLEANS OR HOUSTON/ \r\nGALVESTON AREAS ARE OUT OF DANGER.  THUS...WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CONTINUED GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AND THE INCREASE\r\nIN ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...LILI SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  ONE PUZZLING NOTE ABOUT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS THAT\r\nIN THIS WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR SITUATION NONE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN LILI PAST 101 KT.  THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS\r\nREASONS FOR THIS CAP ON INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR A 105 KT PEAK BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO\r\nSURPRISE IF LILI EXCEEDED THE CURRENT FORECAST INTENSITIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 22.7N  85.0W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.6N  89.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N  91.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 29.5N  93.0W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 35.5N  91.5W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":42,"Date":"2002-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002\r\n \r\nLILI CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nAND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA. LILI APPEARS TO HAVE JUST \r\nCOMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BASED ON THE LAST 2 RECON \r\nPASSES THROUGH THE CENTER. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THE EYE \r\nHAS CLEARED OUT AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE \r\nINCREASING FROM -55C TO -9C JUST DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS. THE \r\nPREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON \r\nDROPSONDE WINDS OF 101 KT OVER A DEEP LAYER BETWEEN 963 MB AND 850 \r\nMB...COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT...OR T5.5...FROM TAFB AND \r\nAFWA. WIND RADII WERE ALSO INCREASED BASED ON 00Z SURFACE REPORTS \r\nAND METICULOUS ANALYSES FROM THE AOML/HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/13. THE LAST 4 RECON FIXES INDICATE \r\nLILI HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST \r\nTRACK. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO MADE A SIMILAR SHIFT \r\nTO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND \r\nTHEN SHIFTS TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS \r\nCONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK JUST SIMPLY ROUNDS OUT \r\nTHE TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS. \r\nTHIS SCENARIO IS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE APPROACHING DEEP MID- TO \r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE \r\nINTERMOUNTAIN REGION OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND STRONGLY AGREE ON A \r\nLANDFALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 42 \r\nHOURS. OF COURSE... JUST A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE \r\nCENTER OF LILI CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA...AND A WOBBLE \r\nTO THE EAST WOULD TAKE THE POWERFUL HURRICANE CLOSER TO THE NEW \r\nORLEANS AREA.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE...WHILE THE \r\nINNER CORE CONVECTION AND THE EYE CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. \r\nLILI ALREADY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE AND NOW THAT \r\nTHE EYEWALL HAS DECREASED FROM 35 NMI DOWN TO 17 NMI... SOME \r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEPENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SHORTLY AND CONTINUE FOR \r\nANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE AND EVEN PROBABLE THAT LILI \r\nCOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT AROUND 110 KT BETWEEN THE 12 AND \r\n24 HOURS TIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT. THIS \r\nINTENSITY SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. \r\nUNFORTUNATELY...IT LOOKS LIKE LILI WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT \r\nMAKES LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 23.3N  86.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 24.4N  88.3W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 26.1N  90.7W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 28.0N  92.2W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 30.5N  92.7W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 37.0N  88.5W    25 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":43,"Date":"2002-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n\r\nAERIAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED A FAIRLY RAPID CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nFALL...TO ABOUT 954 MB JUST BEFORE 0600Z...BUT A LATER DROPSONDE\r\nFROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT OF 955 MB SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAD LEVELLED.  THIS IS PROBABLY TEMPORARY...AND SOME SHORT-TERM\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DUE TO INTERNAL PROCESSES SUCH\r\nAS EYEWALLL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  HOWEVER METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LILI IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  THE BIG\r\nQUESTION IS...JUST HOW STRONG LILI WILL BE WHEN IT REACHES THE\r\nCOAST?  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE WESTERN\r\nGULF WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nUPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AS\r\nIT IS WHERE LILI IS PRESENTLY LOCATED...BUT THE RELATIVELY FAST\r\nMOTION OF LILI COULD MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF THE LESS FAVORABLE\r\nWATERS.  HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND THERE\r\nIS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTATE OF THE SCIENCE OF INTENSITY FORECASTING...WE ARE FORECASTING\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY 3 STRENGTH UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND LILIS MOTION \r\nIS NOW ABOUT 300/14.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY THE \r\nSTEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER \r\nANTICYCLONE.  IN A DAY OR TWO...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING \r\nINTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE \r\nANTICYLONE SOMEWHAT.  THE NET RESULT SHOULD BE A GRADUAL TURN OF \r\nLILI TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL...LILI SHOULD \r\nACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THIS OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN EXCELLENT \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 24.0N  87.9W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N  89.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 27.0N  91.5W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 29.2N  92.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 38.5N  85.5W    20 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":44,"Date":"2002-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n \r\nAFTER SPUTTERING A BIT BETWEEN 06Z-12Z...LILI HAS SHOWN SIGNS\r\nOF STRENGTHENING.  THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED WITH THE\r\nEYE BECOMING WELL-DEFINED.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER \r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED 125 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL 10 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 953 MB.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 105 KT...MAKING \r\nLILI A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS LILI CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A\r\nSTRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nSHOULD PUSH THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED WITH A RANGE OF LANDFALLS FROM VERMILLION BAY TO SABINE\r\nPASS.  WHILE THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE SUCH UNANIMOUSLY CLUSTERED\r\nGUIDANCE COULD BE UNANIMOUSLY WRONG...THE SOUTHERLY AND \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE DATA\r\nOVER MUCH OF TEXAS SUGGESTS THAT FOR THE MOMENT THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nGOOD.  AFTER LANDFALL...LILI SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE \r\nCLUSTER OF GUIDANCE BETWEEN THE MORE EASTWARD AVN/GFS AND THE\r\nMORE WESTWARD NOGAPS/UKMET.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT THAN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...\r\nAS LILI IS WELL-ORGANIZED...STILL OVER WARM WATER...AND HAS GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT SOUTHWEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...\r\nTHE WATER TEMPERATURES BECOME A LITTLE COOLER CLOSER TO THE COAST...\r\nAND DRY AIR SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COULD INTRUDE INTO THE\r\nSYSTEM AND STOP DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS THAT SHOW LITTLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE PREMISE OF STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM UP TO\r\nTHE LEVEL OF ITS CURRENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE...WHICH IS ABOUT 120\r\nKT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LILI COULD PEAK AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nSTOP THE PRESSES...THE LATEST FIX FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER...\r\nRECEIVED JUST AFTER THE REST OF THE ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS\r\nTRANSMITTED...INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB.  SHOULD\r\nTHIS BURST OF INTENSIFICATION CONTINUE...THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE REVISED UPWARD ON THE\r\nNEXT PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 24.8N  88.9W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 26.0N  90.5W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 28.1N  92.1W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 30.4N  92.5W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 33.5N  91.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 40.5N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":45,"Date":"2002-10-02 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE \r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF LILI HAS DROPPED TO 941 MB WITH\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 131 KT.  LILI IS THUS UPGRADED TO A 115 KT \r\nCATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE TRACK...WIND RADII...AND\r\nWARNINGS ARE THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1800Z 25.3N  89.4W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 26.0N  90.5W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 28.1N  92.1W   125 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 30.4N  92.5W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 33.5N  91.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 40.5N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":46,"Date":"2002-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n \r\nLILI WENT THROUGH ANOTHER BURST OF INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nWITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 954 MB TO 941 MB IN ABOUT\r\n5 HR.  THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AT A SLOWER RATE SINCE\r\n16Z...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING TO 938 MB AT 20Z.  THE \r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FOUND BY THE VARIOUS AIRCRAFT SAMPLING \r\nLILI SO FAR ARE 136 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 120 KT.\r\nLILI IS SHOWING SIGNS OF PEAKING...AS THE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF AN OUTER EYEWALL THAT WILL LIKELY\r\nBRING A HALT TO THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nMOTION.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN OR THE REASONING\r\nOF THE FORECAST TRACK.  LILI SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST...\r\nWHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL\r\nCOASTS OF LOUISIANA BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.  AFTER LANDFALL...LILI \r\nSHOULD RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH \r\nGRADUAL ACCELERATION.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY \r\nCLUSTERED TOWARD A LANDFALL BETWEEN VERMILLION BAY AND SABINE \r\nPASS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER \r\nOF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...THE ACTUAL INTENSITY IS\r\nCATCHING UP WITH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND THE OUTFLOW IS BEING\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nTHESE THINGS SUGGEST THAT LILI SHOULD PEAK IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR THEN\r\nUNDERGO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL.  REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nEXACT INTENSITY...LILI SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 25.9N  90.0W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.5N  91.4W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 29.8N  92.3W   125 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 32.2N  91.9W    65 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 36.1N  89.0W    35 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 45.0N  74.0W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":47,"Date":"2002-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 02 2002\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT LILI HAS PEAKED BASED ON THE PLETHORA OF DROPSONDE \r\nAND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA COLLECTED BY BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE AND \r\nNOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING. THE STRONGEST WINDS \r\nOBSERVED WERE 196 KT AT 848 MB AND 183 KT AT 933 MB FROM \r\nDROPSONDES...AND 141 KT OBSERVED AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL. ALL OF \r\nTHIS EQUATES TO APPROXIMATELY 125 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS \r\nSUPPORTED BY STEP-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE DATA OF 125 KT OBTAINED FROM A \r\nNOAA RESEARCH PLANE. THE PRESSURE HAS ALSO RISEN FROM 938 MB TO 942 \r\nMB DURING THE PAST 5 HOURS...FURTHER INDICATING THAT LILI HAS LIKELY \r\nPEAKED. HAVING SAID THAT...LILI IS STILL A VERY FORMIDABLE CATEGORY \r\n4 HURRICANE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ELONGATED \r\nNORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT \r\nSHEAR OR DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ALSO...THE WIND RADII WERE INCREASED \r\nSLIGHTLY BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSES PROVIDED BY THE AOML/HURRICANE \r\nRESEARCH DIVISION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/14...BUT THIS IS BASED ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT A MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL RESUME\r\nSHORTLY.  RADAR AND RECON FIX DATA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS ACTUALLY\r\nINDICATE A STEADY MOTION OF 325/14.  THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS\r\nSOLID WITH 03/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATING A 700 MB AND 500 MB HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH A WRAP-AROUND RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nWESTWARD TO NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL\r\nTEXAS COAST.  THIS RIDGE ORIENTATION SHOULD KEEP LILI MOVING IN A\r\nGENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS THURSDAY\r\nMORNING...AFTER WHICH A TURN TO THE NORTH SHOULD OCCUR.  THE LATEST\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...BUT REMAINS\r\nVERY TIGHTLY PACKED TOWARD A LANDFALL OVER EASTERN VERMILLION BAY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IT STILL KEEPS THE CENTER AND CORE OF LILI WELL\r\nTO THE WEST OF NEW ORLEANS...BUT UNFORTUNATELY TAKES THE CENTER JUST\r\nWEST OF BATON ROUGE AS A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY POSSIBLY DUE TO \r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST LANDFALL \r\nINTENSITY OF 125 KT...OR 145 MPH...IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS MAY EVEN WEAKEN SOME...LILI \r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 OR MAJOR HURRICANE AT \r\nLANDFALL. ALSO...THE EXTREMEMLY STRONG DROPSONDE WINDS PREVIOUSLY \r\nMENTIONED COULD ALSO BRIEFLY MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS WIND \r\nGUSTS. AND FINALLY...ALTHOUGH LILI WILL START TO WEAKEN ONCE IT \r\nMOVES INLAND...THE STRONG WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE \r\nSURFACE WILL NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS THE SURFACE WINDS...WHICH \r\nMEANS THAT HIGH RISE STRUCTURES COULD EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF \r\nAT LEAST ONE CATEGORY HIGHER THAN WHAT IS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 27.2N  90.6W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 29.2N  91.5W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 31.8N  91.5W    70 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 35.2N  89.5W    40 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 39.7N  84.8W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 45.5N  72.0W    30 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":48,"Date":"2002-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT LILI HAS\r\nWEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY YESTERDAY\r\nEVENING.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS\r\nCOLLAPSED INTO A FEW FRAGMENTS...HOWEVER WSR-88D FROM NEW ORLEANS\r\nAND LAKE CHARLES STILL SHOW ABOUT 50 PER CENT OF AN EYEWALL...OPEN\r\nTO THE SOUTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME ELONGATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...INDICATING SOME POSSIBLE\r\nSHEAR.  RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST SOME EROSION OF THE PRECIP PATTERN OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...INDICATING A POSSIBLE\r\nINTRUSION OF DRY AIR.  ALSO...THERE IS A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM\r\nWATER AVAILABLE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AS COMPARED TO FARTHER SOUTH\r\nAND EAST.  ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE\r\nDECLINE.  DESPITE THE WEAKENING...LILI IS STILL A FORMIDABLE\r\nHURRICANE AND...SINCE IT IS MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST FORWARD\r\nSPEED...IT CAN STILL SPREAD STRONG WINDS AS FAR AS 150 MI INLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST...ABOUT 335\r\nDEGREE...HEADING.  A NORTHWARD TURN IS LIKELY VERY SOON BUT IT NOW\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE CENTER WILL PASS NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nVERMILION BAY...WHICH COULD STILL PRODUCE STORM SURGE HEIGHTS\r\nAPPROACHING 20 FT IN THAT BASIN.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE NORTHWARD TURN HAS BEEN DELAYED SOMEWHAT...THE SHORT-TERM\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY WESTWARD.  THE CENTER\r\nOF THE HURRICANE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LOUISIANA COAST...ABOUT\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM HIGH ISLAND WESTWARD IS DISCONTINUED\r\nAT THIS TIME SINCE THE RAINBANDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THAT\r\nAREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 28.7N  91.7W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 30.7N  92.1W    85 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 33.4N  91.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 37.5N  87.5W    25 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lili","Adv":49,"Date":"2002-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n \r\nA VERY INTERESTING EVENT OCCURRED WITH LILI IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.\r\nIT INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY TO A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND\r\nWEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO AS FAST AS IT STRENGTHENED.  THERE WILL\r\nBE MANY EXPLANATIONS AFTER THE FACT...AND PERHAPS MANY PHD\r\nDISSERTATIONS.  I AM GLAD THERE WILL BE SOME.  THE TRUTH IS THAT\r\nNOBODY WAS ABLE TO PREDICT THESE SUDDEN CHANGES IN INTENSITY.\r\nCURRENTLY...THERE ARE ONGOING RESEARCH PROJECTS ON INTENSITY CHANGE.\r\nINCLUDING THE UNITED STATES WEATHER RESEARCH PROGRAM...USWRP.\r\nHOPEFULLY THESE EFFORTS WILL HELP US PREDICT SUCH EVENTS IN THE\r\nFUTURE.\r\n \r\nFOR WHATEVER REASON...LILI WEAKENED...AND MADE LANDFALL ON THE\r\nRAINEY REFUGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF VERMILLION BAY AROUND 1400 UTC\r\nWITH 85 KNOT WINDS...A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  INITIAL INTENSITY AT\r\nTHE ADVISORY TIME IS 80 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A \r\nSMALL AREA JUST TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nALREADY INLAND.  THE EYE IS ON THE COAST JUST SOUTHWEST OF NEW\r\nIBERIA AND BOTH RADAR AND AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EYEWALL IS NO\r\nLONGER WELL DEFINED.  A RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.  LILI\r\nSHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 29.8N  92.2W    80 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 32.1N  92.4W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 35.0N  90.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 40.0N  85.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":50,"Date":"2002-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n \r\nLILI IS ALREADY WELL INLAND AND WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD \r\nPATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL LOOKS IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN \r\nSMALL AREA TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. LILI IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS AND IT \r\nFORECAST TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED. LILI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 36 HOURS \r\nOR BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 31.3N  92.2W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 33.7N  91.9W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 37.5N  87.5W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 41.5N  81.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lili","Adv":51,"Date":"2002-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 03 2002\r\n \r\nLILI IS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA JUST SOUTH OF MONROE. THE \r\nCYCLONE WAS KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS BASED ON 50 KT \r\nDOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES AT 5000 FT...OR 850 MB...WHICH EQUATES TO \r\nABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE. \r\n \r\nLILI HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED OF 14 \r\nKNOTS AS THE STORM MOVES INTO THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS LOCATED FROM \r\nCENTRAL GEORGIA WESTWARD TO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...RADAR \r\nIMAGERY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO SUGGESTS THAT LILI IS BEGINNING TO \r\nROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST OF A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN 12 HOURS OR SO WITH \r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS FORECAST \r\nPACKAGE. LILI IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO \r\nAS IT MERGES WITH A LARGER MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO \r\nVALLEY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 32.4N  92.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 35.9N  89.8W    30 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 39.7N  84.1W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 43.5N  75.7W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lili","Adv":52,"Date":"2002-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LILI DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 04 2002\r\n \r\nTRACKING THE CENTER WITH SURFACE OBS...RADAR...AND SATELLITE...GIVES\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/18.  THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nSURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ABOUT 994 MB\r\nAND SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS.  LILI IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY FROM\r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED\r\nIN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 34.3N  90.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 38.2N  87.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 43.4N  78.8W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 48.0N  67.5W    25 KTS...MERGED WITH ANOTHER    \r\n                                              EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-10-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 14 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING INDICATE \r\nTHAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN \r\nSEA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL \r\nDEPRESSION FOURTEEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A \r\nBLEND OF SURFACE WIND DATA AND A 30 KT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE \r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT \r\nWILL INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY FIND A \r\nSTRONGER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE \r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/10.  NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nFIX POSITIONS WERE FARTHER EAST INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT A\r\n14/0820Z TRMM OVERPASS AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FARTHER WEST NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  THIS MORE WESTWARD POSITION HAS RESULTED IN\r\nA WESTWARD SHIFT OF ALL THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDIFFER ON WHERE AND WHAT THE CYCLONE LOOKS LIKE IN 24 HOURS...WITH\r\nONLY THE AVN/GFS MODEL SHOWING A SEPARATE AND DISTINCT CIRCULATION\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS.  THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONCENTRATE ON\r\nDEVELOPING A BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S.  AND...THEREFORE...LOSE THE DEPRESSION IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN.  THE GFDL MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nAVN/GFS...AND A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS AND THE LBAR MODEL WAS\r\nUSED FOR THIS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE JUST EAST OF\r\nTHE ISLE OF YOUTH IN 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHWEST BAHAMAS IN 48 HOURS.  MY MAIN CONCERN IS THE DIGGING\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES MORE RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH THAN HAS\r\nBEEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND BRING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  FOR THAT REASON...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND COASTAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN UNDER STRONGER SHEAR \r\nAFTER THAT WHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...ONLY MODEST \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS \r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. HOWEVER...IF THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nDIRECTION...THEN THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN \r\nWHAT IS FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 17.8N  83.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 19.6N  83.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 21.7N  82.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 23.9N  80.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 26.8N  77.5W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  71.6W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-10-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS UNDERGONE SOME SHEARING TODAY WITH\r\nA FAIRLY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING FULLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE AFTERNOON RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN DELAYED\r\nDUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS AND LOCAL ADVERSE WEATHER.  THE NEXT\r\nFLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE AROUND 15/00Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS HIGHER INTENSITY IS CORROBORATED BY\r\nA 25 KT WIND AND 1009.0 MB PRESSURE REPORTED BY SHIP KMCB AT 18Z \r\nABOUT 60 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER THAT WAS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT\r\nTHE THE DEPRESSION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD SHORTLY.  THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD...BUT THIS IS LIKELY\r\nJUST A SHORT TERM MOTION.  WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER.  THIS HAS\r\nRESULTED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE 12Z AVN/GFS AND GFDL RUNS HAVE NOW\r\nCOME IN ALMOST ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.\r\nGIVEN THE RECENT SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A\r\nSLIGHT LEFT-OF-TRACK ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  BUT UNTIL\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FINALLY CONSOLIDATES NEAR SOME\r\nSUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION...THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO JUST\r\nHOLD STEADY WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION AND THE\r\nLATEST NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS ARE SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS AND CURRENT GFDL AND AVN/GFS MODEL RUNS.  THE GULFSTREAM-IV\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE MAKING A SYNOPTIC FLIGHT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nTHIS EVENING AND THAT DATA SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INDICATION OF THE\r\nSTRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND ALSO THE NARROW 700 MB RIDGE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THAT SEEMS TO BE BLOCKING ANY\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 20 TO 30 KT \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE \r\nSTORM-RELATIVE SHEAR WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE ONCE THE DEPRESSION \r\nBEGINS TO MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE \r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES CUBA. ONCE OVER THE \r\nFLORIDA STRAITS...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE UNDER MUCH STRONGER \r\nSHEAR...BUT BAROCLINIC EFFECTS AND JETSTREAM DYNAMICS MAY ALLOW FOR \r\nSOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL. THE GFDL MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS FORECAST OF A MAJOR \r\nHURRICANE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS FOR THE PAST 4 MODELS RUNS...BUT \r\nTHIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN \r\nFORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS BY 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 17.2N  83.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 19.1N  83.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 21.6N  82.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 23.9N  80.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 27.6N  76.3W    55 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 37.0N  68.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN CONTINUES TO UNDERGO SHEARING.  THE\r\nLATEST G-4 DROPSONDE DATA AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOWS THAT THE WINDS\r\nFROM 400 MB UP TO 250 MB ARE BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST AND WEST AT ABOUT 15 TO 20 KTS.  UNLESS THE SYSTEM BEGINS\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THE SHEARING WILL NOT ONLY CONTINUE BUT\r\nIS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME.  THE SHEARING IS KEEPING THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nTHE LATEST RECON FOUND 1004 MB PRESSURE IN THE CENTER BUT DUE TO\r\nFLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD NOT INVESTIGATE THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THE TPC MODEL SUITE IS\r\nNOW TIGHTLY PACKED AND ACCELERATES THE SYSTEM OFF TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS WHEN WILL THE SYSTEM\r\nSTART?  ALL THE MODELS MOVE IT OUT FROM ITS STATIONARY POSITION VERY\r\nQUICKLY...BUT EXPERIENCE SUGGESTS THAT A SLOWER 12 HOUR MOTION OF\r\nABOUT 7 TO 8 KTS MIGHT BE MORE REALISTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THIS BEGINS TO\r\nLESSEN THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER A SHEARING\r\nPATTERN...THE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE ONCE THE\r\nDEPRESSION BEGINS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nSOME MODERATE STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES CUBA.\r\nONCE OVER THE BAHAMAS...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE UNDER MUCH\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR...BUT BAROCLINIC EFFECTS AND JETSTREAM DYNAMICS MAY\r\nALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/BLAKE\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 17.0N  83.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.6N  82.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 21.4N  80.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 24.5N  78.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 29.1N  74.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 40.0N  64.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION... \r\nWHICH REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED...WITH LITTLE BANDING EVIDENT ON IR \r\nIMAGERY.  THE LATEST REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT \r\nINDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CAHNGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  \r\nTHE HIGHEST WINDS FOUND BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 35 KT...IN THE \r\nCONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE DEPRESSION REMAINS A \r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION BEGAN TO MOVE \r\nBEFORE THE LAST INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.  THE PRECISE SPEED IS UNKNOWN \r\nSINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING....BUT \r\nMY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/6.  THE DEPRESSION \r\nWILL SOON BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A \r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE \r\nPRIMARY TRACK ISSUE IS THE SPEED.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW HAS \r\nSUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...THE FORWARD SPEED WILL TURN ON HOW MUCH VERTICAL \r\nCOHERENCE THE CYCLONE CAN MAINTAIN.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS \r\nCONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND SINCE \r\nI THINK THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE A LOT OF TROUBLE HOLDING \r\nTOGETHER...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE.  I HAVE ALSO NUDGED THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A \r\nSIMILAR TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND THE BEGINNING OF AN EASTWARD \r\nCOMPONENT IN THE INITIAL MOTION.  IF THIS MOTION TREND IS \r\nCONFIRMED...IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO DROP THE WATCH FOR SOUTH \r\nFLORIDA LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING...EARLY IN THE PERIOD \r\nDUE TO WARM WATERS...AND LATER FROM BAROCLINIC ENERGY \r\nSOURCES...ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT VERY MUCH \r\nDEVELOPMENT...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHEASTWARD.  \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 17.9N  82.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.4N  82.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 22.0N  80.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 25.0N  77.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 29.0N  73.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 38.0N  65.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 12 \r\nTO 18 HOURS WHILE DRIFTING/MEANDERING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE \r\nLAST REPORT FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE  \r\nHIGHEST FLIGHTL-LEVEL WINDS WERE 35 KT AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS \r\nSTILL 1004 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT THAT \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS SHEARED AT LEAST 120 NMI WEST OF THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE... \r\nBUT A 12 HOUR TREND YIELDS ABOUT 045/04. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE \r\nHAS BEEN LESS THAN STERLING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH ALL THE MODELS \r\nYESTERDAY AGREEING ON THE DEPRESSION BEING EAST OF HAVANA AT THIS \r\nTIME. THE MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF \r\nTHE 850 AND 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES THAT \r\nEXTENDS AS FAR WEST AS CENTRAL CUBA...BASED ON RECENT 12Z UPPER-AIR \r\nDATA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS LOW-LEVEL \r\nRIDGE...I HAVE SHIFTED THE FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND A \r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN \r\nBRING IT BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THERE IS A TIGHT PACKING OF THE \r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE ON TAKING THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST \r\nACROSS CENTRAL CUBA IN 12 HOURS AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 24 \r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN SIMILAR STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE \r\nPAST 24 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS STILL DEEP IN THE CARIBBEAN \r\nSEA. TIMING OF THE EROSION OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS TRICKY AT BEST. \r\nTHE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THAT \r\nWAS SUPPOSED TO HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS \r\nBEGINNING TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR \r\nTRENDS AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA. MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE NEXT \r\nSTRONGER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL \r\nHAVE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT OUT THE \r\nDEPRESSION. UNFORTUNATELY...THAT MAY NOT OCCUR FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS \r\nWHICH WOULD LEAVE TD 14 STILL MEANDERING OVER THE NORTHWEST \r\nCARIBBEAN FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE UKMET-GFS-NOGAPS-GFDL CONSENSUS FOR DIRECTION...BUT SIMILAR TO \r\nTHE SLOWER GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODEL FOR SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION COULD STILL STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN \r\nTHAT IT IS OVER 29C WATER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN \r\nIMPROVING THIS MORNING. STRENGTHENING AFTER 36 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO \r\nRESULT FROM BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCES AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE \r\nINFLUENCE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. RAPID \r\nTRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD \r\nOCCUR AS A RESULT OF THIS MID-LATITUDE INTERACTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 17.9N  82.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N  81.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.7N  79.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 24.6N  76.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 29.5N  72.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 40.0N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002\r\n \r\nIN THE PAST 2 HOURS DURING THE LATEST RECON INVESTIGATION...THE \r\nCENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST CLOSER \r\nTO A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND \r\nREPORTED SO FAR HAS BEEN 37 KT AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN TO \r\n1002 MB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE EAST...BUT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST \r\nDUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE DUE \r\nTO THE RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...BUT A COMPROMISE OVER THE \r\nPAST 12 HOURS GIVES ABOUT 030/09. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY \r\nNORTHWARD AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF \r\nMEXICO HAS BEGUN TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT MOVING \r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IS BEGINNING TO ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF \r\nTHE RIDGE AND THIS MAY BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT \r\nNORTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION. MEANWHILE...A MAJOR TROUGH OVER \r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THAT \r\nIS THE TROUGH THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP THE DEPRESSION IN 24 TO \r\n36 HOURS AND ACCELERATE IT RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. I DID NOT WANT \r\nTO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITH RESPECT TO THE RECENT \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE LATEST MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL \r\nRUNS...AND STILL AGREES ON TAKING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS \r\nCENTRAL CUBA IN 24 HOURS AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 36 \r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN BACK ON TRACK AFTER \r\nTHAT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...GFDL... \r\nAND GFDN MODELS.\r\n \r\nTD 14 HAS THE PRESSURE OF A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE LACK OF ANY \r\nPERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS PREVENTED \r\nTHE WINDS FROM INCREASING MUCH. HOWEVER...THIS TREND MAY BE \r\nREVERSING IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE NEW CENTER \r\nCONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO. AS SUCH...SLOW BUT STEADY \r\nINTENSIFICATION IS STILL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE \r\nINFLUENCE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL \r\nRESULT IN RAPID TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT IS POSSIBLE \r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL \r\nLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 19.1N  82.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  80.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  78.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N  76.0W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 29.5N  72.3W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ON IR IMAGES IS DISRUPTED AND MOST OF THE \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS...WHICH INDEED ARE PRETTY LINEAR...ARE TO THE EAST \r\nOF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...LATEST DATA FROM A RECON AND A QUIKSCAT \r\nPASS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  \r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WERE 35 KNOTS AND LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 30 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS \r\nINCREASING AND A COLD FRONT IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE AREA...THE \r\nPOSSIBILITY OF THE SYSTEM ATTAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE IT \r\nREACHES CUBA IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CURRENT WELL \r\nDEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 \r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE \r\nCOLD FRONT AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A \r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO \r\nCROSS CENTRAL CUBA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS \r\nTHAT...LUCKILY FOR CUBA...THIS IS GOING TO BE PRIMARILY A RAIN \r\nEPISODE WITH GUSTY WINDS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 20.2N  81.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.6N  80.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  78.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N  75.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 29.0N  72.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 37.0N  65.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME \r\nIMAGERY...AND THE PLANNED RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD MECHANICAL \r\nPROBLEMS...SO THE INITIAL LOCATION IS UNCLEAR.  SATELLITE POSITION \r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ABOUT 60 MILES APART.  NEAR AS I CAN \r\nTELL...THE DEPRESSION IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION \r\nOF 040/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW \r\nAHEAD OF A FRONTAL ZONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A \r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEEDS VARY \r\nCONSIDERABLY...WITH THE GFS BEING ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE \r\nENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE REPORTS FROM THE LAST MISSION AROUND 00Z SHOWED THAT \r\nTHERE WAS VERY LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT \r\nOF THE DEPRESSION...MEANING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CLOSE TO OPENING \r\nUP INTO A TROUGH.  UNLESS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED \r\nSOON...THE CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SYSTEM \r\nACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH THE SYSTEM RUNNING OUT OF TIME \r\nBEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE DEPRESSION MAY NEVER \r\nGET TO MAKE ITS MARKO AS A TROPICAL STORM.  TO BE ON THE SAFE \r\nSIDE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS THE SYSTEM \r\nREACHING 35 KT IN THE BAHAMAS...BUT I SUSPECT THAT THE DEPRESSION \r\nWILL BE EITHER DISSIPATED OR EXTRATROPICAL BY THEN.  REGARDLESS OF \r\nTHE SYSTEM STATUS...THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL BE THAT OF A \r\nBORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM IN TERMS OF THE RAIN AND WIND HAZARDS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 21.0N  81.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 24.7N  77.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 27.5N  74.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 16 2002\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS\r\nNOW INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NORTH OF CIENFUEGOS.  SINCE\r\n06Z...SHIP OBSERVATIONS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE REPORTED\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 36 KT.  EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS RISING...THERE MAY STILL BE SOME WINDS NEAR\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OFFSHORE THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE\r\nSTRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND STORM SURGE FLOODING\r\nIS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nSAY WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL BE TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL AFTER IT\r\nEMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE OTHER NHC MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON KEEPING SOME TYPE OF CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.  THE\r\nCOLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA\r\nSHOULD MERGE WITH THE DEPRESSION IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT \r\nSOONER...WHEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND SLIGHTLY FASTER.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nMODEL AND IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING FASTER TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST...THE ADDITIONAL TRANSLATIONAL SPEED MAY HELP TO BUMP THE \r\nWIND SPEEDS UP TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WHEN THE CYCLONE IS \r\nMOVING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 06Z GLOBAL \r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE JETSTREAM ENERGY AND STRONG \r\nSYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH \r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM TURNING INTO AN \r\nEXTRATROPICAL BOMB AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS...DESPITE ITS \r\nEXPECTED MERGER WITH THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...AT AND BEYOND 36 \r\nHOURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH \r\nTHE SYSTEM AND THERE COULD BE SOME SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC DEEPENING \r\nAT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 22.3N  80.2W    30 KTS...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 23.9N  78.6W    30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 26.5N  76.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 30.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 16 2002\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS \r\nAFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TD 14 HAS SHEARED OUT AND \r\nDISSIPATED...REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA...AND THEN HAS MOVED BACK \r\nINLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA AS AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH \r\nOF CIENFUEGOS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS CAUSED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO \r\nDISSIPATE NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS \r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING...AND FORECAST \r\nPOSITIONS AND INTENSITIES ARE PROVIDED ONLY FOR PLANNING PURPOSES \r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM CLEARS THE BAHAMAS. THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO \r\nMERGE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM ANDROS ISLAND \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD CATCH \r\nUP WITH THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT AND COMPLETE THE TRANSITION OVER \r\nTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...ASSUMING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL \r\nEXISTS AT THAT TIME. THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION OF THE \r\nFRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL \r\nFLOW SHOULD KEEP THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST \r\nACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. I DID NOT CHANGE THE  \r\nFORECAST TRACK POSITIONS SINCE THE NEW 12Z GFS MODEL FORECAST \r\nPOSITIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THOSE ON THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHERE MAY BE SOME INTERMITTMENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION LATER \r\nTONIGHT WHEN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TD 14 MERGES WITH THE \r\nPRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS \r\nEXPECTED DUE TO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. BUT AFTER 24 HOURS \r\nWHEN THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CLEARS THE BAHAMAS...SOME SIGNIFICANT \r\nBAROCLINIC STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. THE NEW 12Z GFS MODEL RUN IS \r\nMORE ROBUST WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM THAN IT HAS BEEN \r\nON THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE NEW 12Z NOGAPS RUN \r\nIN MAKING THE CYCLONE A NEAR-GALE CENTER BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 22.4N  80.3W    25 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 24.0N  78.5W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 26.5N  76.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 30.0N  72.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-05-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nCIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS IS A\r\nSUCCESS FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INSISTING ON\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THIS AREA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE WEST AND THERE MAY BE SOME \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE NCEP \r\nGLOBAL MODEL AMPLIFIES THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BECAUSE THE \r\nDEPRESION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS \r\nINDICATED. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nMODEL.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/04. A \r\nNARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL KEEP THE \r\nSYSTEM ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WELL TO THE \r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO.  AN AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE MAY FORCE THE \r\nCYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 11.6N 101.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 11.8N 102.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 12.0N 103.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 13.0N 105.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 106.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-05-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI MAY 24 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST-\r\nNORTHEAST LINE.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE...AND IN FACT MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY WELL DEFINED YET.\r\nGIVEN THE SYSTEMS POOR DEFINITION AND SHORT HISTORY...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5.  THE APPARENT\r\nMOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER DEVELOPS.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE MEXICAN COAST WESTWARD AND\r\nTHEN SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...SEPARATING THE CYCLONE\r\nFROM THE HIGH-SHEAR WESTERLIES.  THIS CONFIGURATION SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nRELATIVELY LARGE...WITH THE NCEP GFS...GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...\r\nFORMERLY KNOWN AS THE AVN...KEEPING THE SYSTEM ENTANGLED WITH THE\r\nITCZ THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UKMET HAS A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nAND SLOWER TRACK...AND THE GFDL LIES IN BETWEEN.  ALL OF THESE\r\nMODELS INDICATE RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION AT AND BEYOND THREE DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD IN DEFERENCE TO THE AVN...\r\nOOPS...GFS...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM SO FAR.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE IS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT \r\nLESSEN AS QUICKLY AS THE PREVIOUS RUN DID...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL \r\nHAVE COMPETITION WITH THE ITCZ IF IT IN FACT TAKES THE MORE \r\nSOUTHERLY TRACK FAVORED BY THE GFS.  THE GFS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE \r\nIN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL LIKES THE DEPRESSION A LOT...BRINGING IT TO 82 KT IN 72 HOURS. \r\nIN PART THIS IS DUE TO AN ASSUMED TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WHERE \r\nTHE SHEAR IS LOWER...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE 30C BATH WATER UNDER THE \r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS SHIPS....BUT \r\nIF THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST THEN THE SHIPS \r\nFORECAST MIGHT NOT BE FAR OFF THE MARK.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 11.6N 102.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 11.6N 102.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 11.6N 103.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 11.9N 104.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 12.4N 105.8W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 13.0N 107.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-05-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED ON \r\nNIGHTTIME INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03.  THE LATEST NCEP GFS (GLOBAL \r\nFORECAST SYSTEM) MODEL KEEPS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH \r\nOF THE DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FORECASTS A SLOW \r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE UKMET...GFLD  AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW \r\nA SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A \r\nSLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY \r\nOF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...THIS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY \r\nNOT WELL ORGANIZED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BELOW \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS GRADUAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION TO 74 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nAND OVER WARM SSTS AND THE GFDL MODEL ALSO FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST NO  \r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A \r\nBLEND...BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 65 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 11.4N 101.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 11.4N 102.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 11.4N 103.7W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 11.5N 105.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 12.0N 106.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-05-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER \r\nORGANIZED AND THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. AN \r\nAREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED DURING \r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS BUT THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURES... \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND THE OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS RESTRICTED.   THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBE LIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THE LATTER IS INFERRED FROM THE \r\nFORECAST AMPLIFICATION OF THE 200 MB RIDGE BY THE NCEP GFS(OLD AVN) \r\nMODEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GRADUAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 270/05. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING \r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY. \r\nIN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS WHICH USED THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS KEEP \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK...INCLUDING THE GFS ITSELF \r\nWHICH SHOWS A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE LASTEST 06 UTC RUN \r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INCREASE SOME IN FORWARD \r\nSPEED AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 11.4N 102.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 11.4N 103.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 11.5N 106.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 12.0N 107.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N 109.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-05-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER \r\nHAS DECREASED BUT CURVED BANDS ARE TRYING TO FORM. THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND SOME CLOUD LINES ARE \r\nMOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING ONCE AGAIN \r\nBECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE OCEAN IS WARM.\r\n\r\nTHE NCEP GFS...THE OUTLIER EARLIER TODAY...WAS CORRECT IN \r\nFORECASTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST \r\nAND INDEED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/7.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nIS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 500 MB RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST \r\nTO AMPLIFY AND EXTEND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE \r\nON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A \r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO \r\nTHE GFS (OLD AVN) MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 10.7N 103.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 10.0N 104.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 10.0N 105.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 10.0N 107.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 10.5N 109.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 11.5N 112.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-05-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT MAY 25 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION LOOKED QUITE DISORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER FOUND ITSELF COMPETING FOR INFLOW AND ASCENT\r\nWITH A CONVECTIVE BAND TO ITS SOUTH.  IN FACT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND DECREASED TO T2.0 AT 00Z.  BUT DURING THE PAST COUPLE\r\nOF HOURS...AS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED SOUTHWEST\r\nTOWARD THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND...CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE\r\nCONCENTRATED AND IS ORGANIZING INTO A CURVED BAND.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS\r\nLIKE A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT I PREFER TO SEE THE\r\nAPPARENT ORGANIZATION PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE UPGRADING\r\nIT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/9...BUT AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES THE\r\nMOTION SHOULD SLOW A BIT AND THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT SHOULD DIMINISH\r\nOVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nCENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...THE UKMET IS AN\r\nOUTLIER...WITH A TRACK MUCH SLOWER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE REST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND THE NCEP/GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL\r\nWITH THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT.  WHILE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE\r\nORGANIZING AT THE MOMENT...ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY HAS TAKEN\r\nIT INTO A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  SO WHILE TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH SHOULD BE ATTAINED SOON...I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE\r\nENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL HAS NO SUCH LACK OF\r\nCONFIDENCE...BRINGING THE DEPRESSION TO 82 KT IN ONLY 12 HOURS.  THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE...BUT IN 48\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT WEAK THROUGHOUT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BACKS OFF SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z  9.8N 104.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z  9.6N 105.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z  9.7N 106.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 10.3N 108.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 11.0N 110.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 11.5N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-05-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED DURING \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB \r\nAND SAB OF 2.5 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY.  THUS...TD-1 IS UPGRADED TO \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA...THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH \r\nPACIFIC FOR 2002. \r\n\r\nSINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALMA APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND \r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN SO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM \r\nTO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE TURNING\r\nBACK TO A MORE WESTERLY COURSE AS HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE AVN\r\nMODEL.  BECAUSE THE AVN HAS HANDLED THE DIP TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST\r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS I AM GOING TO STAY WITH IT DURING THIS\r\nFORECAST CYCLE.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE MOTION REMAINS THE\r\nSAME...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A\r\nMORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK WITH\r\nA SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z  9.8N 105.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z  9.8N 106.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 10.1N 108.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 10.5N 109.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 11.0N 111.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 12.0N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-05-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS A BIG SURPRISE THIS MORNING WHEN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES \r\nBECAME AVAILABLE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.  THIS INDICATES THAT ALMA HAS NOT \r\nSTRENGTHENED AND IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. THE CURRENT \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST WEAKEN AND THE OCEAN IS A WARM \r\nOCEAN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A \r\nMODEST INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nTHE POSITION OF THE RELOCATED CENTER INDICATES THAT ALMAS HAS BEEN \r\nMOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...PRACTICALLY NEARLY STATIONARY.\r\nHOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A GENERAL WEST \r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE \r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT \r\nEASTWARD AS A NEW TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES THE AREA.  \r\nTHIS WOULD PROBABLY FAVOR A TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A \r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE NCEP GFS GLOBAL MODEL.  HOWEVER... \r\nSEVERAL OTHER MODELS... INCLUDING GUNS...GUNA...UK AND NOGAPS TURN \r\nTHE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH MUCH SOONER.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 10.8N 104.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 11.0N 105.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 11.3N 106.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 11.5N 108.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 12.0N 109.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 12.5N 112.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-05-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE POORLY DEFINED  \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ALMA LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. \r\nTHE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX...SO ONCE AGAIN...THE \r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH \r\nMOST OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS AROUND A \r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE CURRENTLY FORCING THE \r\nSTORM TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A NEW TROUGH \r\nIN THE WESTERLIES APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. THIS WOULD PROBABLY FAVOR \r\nA TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE LATEST NCEP GFS MODEL \r\nSWITCHED TO A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS. THIS IS NOW MORE \r\nCONSISTENT WITH OTHER MODELS WHICH PROVIDED THE NORTHWARD TURN \r\nOPTION IN EARLIER RUNS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 10.9N 105.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 11.0N 106.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 11.5N 109.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 11.5N 110.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 12.0N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-05-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN MAY 26 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE ALMA HAS BECOME A \r\nLITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE IS \r\nSTILL EXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR \r\nENTRAINMENT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY. THE RESULT HAS BEEN A PARTIAL EXPOSURE OF THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE OF 35 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF \r\nT2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS  \r\nGOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/09. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. I HAVE KEPT THE \r\nCENTER TUCKED IN CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF A SMALL BURST OF \r\n-80C CONVECTION THAT HAS FIRED UP DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS NEAR THE \r\nOLD CENTER LCOATION. HOWEVER...THE BEST MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nAPPEARS TO BE LOCATED FARTHER TO SOUTH BELOW 10N LATITUDE. AS \r\nSUCH...THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS \r\nWHEN THE CENTER MAY REDEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE \r\nCLOUD MASS AND ALSO DUE TO INFRARED-ONLY IMAGERY MAKING CENTER \r\nFIXING DIFFICULT. HAVING SAID THAT...THE AVN/GFS AND AVN/GFS \r\nENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS WERE CLOSELY FOLLOWED GIVEN THEIR RECENT \r\nPERFORMANCE. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS TAKE ALMA SLOWLY TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO HINT \r\nAT RECURVATURE BY 72 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS PREMATURE AT THIS POINT IN \r\nTIME GIVEN THE SIGNIFICNAT WESTWARD PUSH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR \r\nIMAGERY. THE GFDL IS BETWEEN THE AVN/GFS AND UKMET/NOGAPS \r\nSOLUTIONS...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH BUT VERY CLOSE \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE \r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT THAT HAS ERODED THE \r\nCONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. IN \r\nFACT...NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE \r\nCENTER AND HAS BEEN MOVING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE NORTHEAST \r\nQUADRANT. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION...THE IMPROVING \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR \r\n30C...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL BRINGS ALMA UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND TO 76 KT \r\nIN 72 HOURS...AND THIS GENERAL INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS FOLLOWED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 10.7N 107.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 10.9N 108.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 11.0N 110.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 11.2N 111.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 11.5N 113.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.0N 115.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-05-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2002\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ALMA HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HR...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-80C.  HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS VERY HARD TO FIND IN\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY AND IS STILL ASSUMED TO BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nOR EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n35 KT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER ACTUALLY\r\nIS TO THE CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  ALMA IS\r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS STEERING\r\nTHE CYCLONE WESTWARD.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT\r\nTHE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS NEAR SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA AND MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS\r\nTO THIS DEVELOPMENT BY TURNING ALMA NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD.\r\nTHE GFS...BAM MODELS...NHC91...AND LBAR CALL FOR A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND\r\nASSOCIATED  ENSEMBLES TURN THE STORM NORTHWARD NEAR 111W-113W.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CLUSTER CALLING FOR\r\nNORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WITH THE TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHT NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK.  A BETTER MOTION ESTIMATE FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nMAY HELP DETERMINE WHICH CLUSTER OF THE BIFURCATED GUIDANCE IS\r\nCORRECT.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nSUGGEST THAT SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER ALMA...CREATING A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT\r\nYET CLEAR IF THE STORM IS ACTUALLY RESPONDING TO IT.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL THEREFORE BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nCALLING FOR ALMA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE MOVING\r\nINTO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT THE 72 HR POINT.  ALMA COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST IF THE CURRENT COLD\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS PERSIST AFTER THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...OR\r\nIF THE CENTER IS MORE INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY\r\nINDICATED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 10.7N 107.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 10.8N 109.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 11.0N 110.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 11.4N 112.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 12.0N 113.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.5N 115.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-05-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON MAY 27 2002\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN BOTH\r\nINFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY AND IS STILL ASSUMED TO BE ON THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN OR EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH SOME\r\nWARMING HAS TAKEN PLACE IN THE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 45 AND 35\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER ACTUALLY IS TO THE\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7.  ALMA REMAINS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS STEERING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A CUT-OFF LOW\r\nFORMS NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS DEVELOPMENT BY TURNING ALMA NORTHWESTWARD\r\nOR NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS.  THE\r\nAVN...BAM MODELS...NHC91...AND LBAR CALL FOR A MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES\r\nTURN THE STORM NORTHWARD NEAR 111W-113W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW THE MODEL CLUSTER CALLING FOR NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WITH THE\r\nTRACK ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST\r\nTHAT SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER ALMA...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF\r\nTHE STORM IS ACTUALLY RESPONDING TO IT.  IN FACT...IT MAY BE THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR IS BEING PRODUCED BY MID-LEVEL WINDS THAT CANNOT BE\r\nMEASURED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THEREFORE BE SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR ALMA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST\r\nBEFORE MOVING INTO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT THE 72 HR POINT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 10.8N 108.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 10.9N 109.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 11.2N 111.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 11.7N 112.7W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 12.3N 113.9W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 14.1N 115.6W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-05-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN THE\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY BUT THERE WAS A HINT OF IT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION JUST BEFORE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OBSCURED IT.\r\nBECAUSE OF THIS...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB\r\nHAS INCREASED AND IS NOW 55 KTS WHILE TAFB REMAINS AT 45 KTS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/9.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nREMAINS THE SAME...ALMA WILL TRACK WEST AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH\r\nOF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT IN TIME\r\nTHE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS NEAR SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA AND MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO\r\nTHIS DEVELOPMENT BY TURNING ALMA NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD.  THE\r\nMODELS WHICH WERE DIVIDED INTO TWO CAMPS IN PREVIOUS PACKAGES ARE\r\nNOW CONVERGING TOWARD A MORE COMMON SOLUTION BUT STILL HAVE A LARGE\r\nSPREAD WITH THE UKMET THE EASTERN MOST AND LBAR AND BAMS THE WESTERN\r\nMOST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL BE WEIGHTED TOWARD THE\r\nWESTERN MOST TRACKS AND WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER ALMA...GOING FROM ABOUT 15\r\nKTS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS TO ABOUT 10 KTS AT THE 1500 UTC\r\nANALYSIS...POSSIBLY CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOW MORE IN-LINE WITH \r\nTHE SHIPS FORECAST AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 30 \r\nTO 36 HOURS.  GRADUAL RECURVATURE INTO A STRONGER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT \r\nAND COOLER SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WERE MODIFIED \r\nBASED UPON OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP ZQTP2.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 11.4N 109.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 11.9N 111.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 12.7N 113.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.4N 114.0W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.4N 114.7W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 114.7W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-05-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON MAY 27 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS \r\nINDICATED BY THE LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN FIX POSITIONS FROM THE VARIOUS \r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON \r\nPERSISTENCE...EXTRAPOLATION...AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK...WHICH PLACES THE CENTER JUST NORTH OF WHAT APPEARS \r\nTO BE A SMALL CDO FEATURE DEVELOPING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT \r\nIS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5...55 KT... \r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT WAS KEPT SLIGHTLY LOWER DUE TO THE \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. ALMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE \r\nTRACKING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AROUND THE \r\nPERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES \r\nABOUT 115W LONGITUDE...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN \r\nAS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS. THE 18Z AVN/GFS \r\nAND GFDL MODEL RUNS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AS A \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE UKMET SCENARIO IS SIMILAR...BUT MUCH FASTER AND \r\nTAKES ALMA ALMOST DUE NORTH IN 12 HOURS. THE UKMET SOLUTION SEEMS \r\nEXCESSIVE GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WAS THEREFORE \r\nREJECTED. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE AVN AND AVN ENSEMBLE \r\nSOLUTIONS...BUT SHOWS THE SAME GRADUAL RECURVATURE TREND AFTER 48 \r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE AVN TRACK.\r\n\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY AND A \r\nSMALL CDO FEATURE MAY BE DEVELOPING. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE \r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS IMPROVING TO THE EAST. GRADUAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION TO 75 KT IN 36 HOURS IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL...WHILE THE GFDL RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO \r\n95 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE GFDL SOLUTION SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE LACK \r\nOF ANY PERSISTENT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...ALMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND \r\nOVER 28-29C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO AT LEAST STEADY \r\nINTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND ALMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A \r\nHURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO CAP THE INTENSIFICATION \r\nPROCESS AND BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF \r\nA CDO DOES DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...THEN THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WILL PROBABLY BE TOO LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.0N 111.8W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 12.6N 113.1W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 13.4N 114.4W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.7N 115.3W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-05-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2002\r\n\r\nALMA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A -80C CDO WITH A VIGOROUS OUTER\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  A RECENT SSM/I\r\nOVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT CONVECTION IS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE\r\nFORMING.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT AND\r\n55 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/8.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES\r\nCOVER THE PACIFIC NORTH OF A PUERTO VALLARTA-20N120W-11N130W\r\nLINE...WITH RIDGING BETWEEN ALMA AND THE WESTERLIES.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD FORM NEAR\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THAT\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS LOW WILL BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO TURN ALMA NORTHWARD OR PERHAPS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR.  THE MODEL TRENDS OBSERVED LAST NIGHT\r\nCONTINUE TONIGHT...WITH THE GFS...BAM MODELS...AND NHC91 CALLING\r\nFOR MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE TURN...WHILE THE NOGAPS...\r\nGFDL...AND UKMET CALL FOR A SHARPER RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nALMA REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT...AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THUS...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHAT TIME.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD HALT DEVELOPMENT AND\r\nBEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALMA HAS\r\nGENERATED -80C OR COLDER CONVECTIVE TOPS ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY FOR\r\nMORE THAN 24 HR.  THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nCOULD OCCUR IF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ORGANIZES INTO AN EYEWALL\r\nBEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 11.7N 111.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 12.1N 112.6W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 12.7N 113.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 13.7N 114.8W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.3N 115.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-05-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE MAY 28 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 65 AND 55 \r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IR IMAGERY IS \r\nSUGGESTING THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND THERE IS LITTLE BANDING.  THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW \r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE WESTWARD \r\nSTEERING CURRENT FOR ALMA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO \r\nHOW RAPIDLY THIS WILL OCCUR.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SPLIT...WITH \r\nTHE GFS AND ITS BAM DERIVATIVES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH A \r\nGENTLE RECURVATURE BEGINNING IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND THE REST OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE SHOWING AN EARLIER AND SHARPER TURN.  INTERESTINGLY...THE \r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS IN THE LATTER CAMP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nFAVORS THE ENSEMBLE MEAN AND GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE WATER IS WARM AND SHEAR IS MODEST.  THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE IS \r\nNOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC FOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT HAS BEEN...AND IN FACT \r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING.  \r\nSTILL...THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR GROWTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 TO \r\n36 HOURS BEFORE SHEAR INCREASES AND WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 12.2N 112.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 12.7N 113.8W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 13.6N 114.9W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.7N 115.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 115.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-05-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND \r\nSAB...WHICH MEANS THAT THERE IS A 50-50 CHANCE THAT ALMA IS A \r\nHURRICANE.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A RAGGED EYE IS TRYING TO \r\nFORM...AND SO ALMA IS UPGRADED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO \r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO CUT OFF WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS \r\nCUTOFF WILL BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALMA...WHICH SHOULD \r\nRESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING FLOW OVER THE NEXT 24-36 \r\nHOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON THE ISSUE OF \r\nRECURVATURE...BUT IN GENERAL TENDS TO DOWNPLAY THE INTERACTION \r\nBETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS ALMA BEGINS TO \r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO...IT MAY NOT BE STRONG \r\nENOUGH TO BE ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD...BUT INSTEAD COULD SIMPLY \r\nSHEAR OFF AND SPIN DOWN...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS \r\nSTILL FASTER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL TIME...PERHAPS ANOTHER DAY OR SO...FOR ALMA TO \r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME MORE.  HOWEVER...ALMA IS APPROACHING A STABLE AIR \r\nMASS TO ITS WEST...AND BOTH COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR AWAITS \r\nAFTER 24-36 HOURS...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 12.2N 113.8W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 12.9N 115.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 13.7N 116.1W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 116.6W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.0N 116.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-05-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2002\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ALMA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH A \r\nPERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF \r\n75 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5...OR \r\n77 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA... A 6 HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK \r\nT-NUMBER OF T4.5...AND A 28/2115Z AMSU EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE OF 86 KT. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WAS EVIDENT EARLIER IN \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY FOR ABOUT 3 HOURS...BUT HAS NOW BECOME \r\nCLOUD COVERED DUE TO A BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...A 28/1726Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS CLEARLY \r\nINDICATED A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE...WHICH WOULD FURTHER SUPPORT \r\nTHE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06 BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS OF \r\nMOTION. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK \r\nFORECAST AND PHILOSOPHY. ALMA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...SO ONLY  \r\nMINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH \r\nOF ALMA'S CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE \r\nPASSES AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO RECURVE TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST. THE 18Z AVN/GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THE 200 MB LOW TO \r\nTHE WEST OF BAJA AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM TO ITS \r\nSOUTH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY \r\n72 HOURS. THE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR MAY ALLOW ALMA TO REMAIN \r\nVERTICALLY DEEP AND WEAKEN LESS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER TRACKING FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST AND THE AVN/GFS MODEL ARE INDICATING. THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS \r\nALMA AS A SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE AVN/GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nALMA SHOULD PEAK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AS THE \r\nSYSTEM TRACKS CLOSER TO COOLER SSTS AND ALSO BEGINS TO ENTRAIN \r\nLOW-LEVEL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED \r\nJUST WEST OF 116W LONGITUDE. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS GOOD AND \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED \r\nTO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WAS BUMPED UP A LITTLE DURING THE FIRST 24 \r\nHOURS...WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING INDICATED AFTERWARDS...WHICH IS \r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 12.4N 114.0W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 13.0N 115.0W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 14.1N 115.8W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 15.3N 116.2W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 16.3N 116.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-05-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2002\r\n\r\nALMA HAS SPUTTERED A BIT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE EYE TEMPORARILY DISAPPEARING IN IR IMAGERY AROUND 02Z-03Z.\r\nADDITIONALLY...SSM/I IMAGERY AT 0355Z INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL\r\nHAD OPENED TO THE NORTHEAST.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE HAS\r\nRE-APPEARED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC IN IR IMAGERY.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN 77 KT AND 65 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.\r\n \r\nALMA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION NOW 310/7...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A LITTLE\r\nFASTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW NEAR 28N120W DROPPING SOUTHWARD...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW BETWEEN IT AND ALMA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS LOW\r\nSHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR 36-48 HR BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT ALMA SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC GUIDANCE.\r\nTHE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST WILL ALMA MOVE?  THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES\r\nON THIS ISSUE...WITH THE BAMM...BAMD...AND LBAR CALLING FOR A\r\nFASTER MOTION WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND NHC91\r\nCALL FOR A SLOW MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD\r\nTHE SLOWER SOLUTION...WITH ALMA MOVING A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ABOUT 5-7 KT.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE\r\nFASTER MODELS COULD BE RIGHT...AND ALMA COULD MOVE MORE QUICKLY\r\nNORTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nLIFTS OUT. \r\n \r\nALMA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THERE\r\nIS NO OBVIOUS REASON FOR THE OBSERVED SPUTTERING.  THE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD MOVE ALMA MORE QUICKLY INTO THE COOLER\r\nWATER TO THE NORTH...SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD PEAK DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  THE LIFTING OUT OF THE UPPER LOW\r\nWILL LIKELY DECREASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE PATH OF ALMA. \r\nTHIS MEANS SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR IN ALMA'S WEAKENING\r\nAS WAS EXPECTED 24 HR AGO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 13.4N 114.6W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.1N 115.4W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 15.3N 115.9W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 16.3N 116.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N 115.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 114.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-05-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT 77 KT...AND\r\nSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  THE EYE CONTINUES TO COME\r\nAND GO IN THE IR IMAGERY...BUT IS CURRENTLY NICELY DEFINED.  THE\r\nCORE CONVECTION HAS BEEN PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE THAT OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO\r\nBECOME RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE \r\nUPPER CUTOFF LOW WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD.  THIS IS \r\nEXPECTED TO TURN ALMA TO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nSO.  THE NCEP/GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CUTOFF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT \r\nOUT WITHIN 24 HOURS...LEAVING ALMA BEHIND.  THE UKMET...WHICH HAS \r\nHAD A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD BIAS WITH THIS CYCLONE...IS SLOWER TO \r\nPULL THE CUTOFF OUT AND CONSEQUENTLY TAKES ALMA SHARPLY TO THE EAST. \r\nTHE GFDL LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST.  \r\n\r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE BETTER DEFINITION IN THE EYE \r\nAPPEARANCE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY STILL \r\nBE SOME SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION.  AS THE CUTOFF \r\nLOW AND ALMA APPROACH...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.  IN \r\nADDITION...SSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE ALREADY DECREASING.  \r\nTHEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITHIN \r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 13.7N 115.3W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.7N 115.8W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 116.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 115.8W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 18.0N 115.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-05-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ALMA TODAY.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT 77 KT.  MOST RECENT\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE COME UP A LITTLE AND ARE NOW T4.7.\r\nBASED ON THIS INCREASE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 80\r\nKT.  THE CORE CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE EYE FROM TIME TO\r\nTIME BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY STRONGEST IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH IS INGESTING A COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nUPPER CUTOFF LOW WEST OF BAJA CONTINUES IS NO LONGER DIGGING\r\nSOUTHWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHILE STILL DIVERSE...HAS CONVERGED\r\nSOMEWHAT AND SUPPORTS A COLLAPSE OF THE STEERING FLOW IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS AS THE CUTOFF LIFTS OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  AS ALMA APPROACHES THE CUTOFF LOW...THERE WILL BE A\r\nMODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...\r\nSSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE ALREADY DECREASING.  THEREFORE...A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITHIN 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 14.2N 115.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.2N 115.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.6N 115.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 115.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-05-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A BIT OF A DILEMMA IN DETERMINING JUST HOW STRONG ALMA\r\nACTUALLY IS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS INDICATES\r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND EYE HAVE BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T5.5...102 KT...AND\r\nT5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...DATA-T NUMBERS ARE\r\nT6.0...115 KT...FROM TAFB AND THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.\r\nHOWEVER...EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE TYPICALLY ONE-HALF T-NUMBER TOO HIGH WITH DEVELOPING NORTHEAST\r\nPACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nONLY INCREASED TO 90 KT AT THIS TIME.  THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE 90 KT...OR T5.0...3-HOUR ODT AVERAGE INTENSITY.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME\r\nELONGATED IN A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7.  IT APPEARS THAT ALMA HAS FINALLY MADE\r\nTHE TURN TO THE NORTH AND IS PASSING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE IS ON TRACK...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA SPUR HAS STARTED TO LIFT OUT TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO SHIFT\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...ALLOWING ALMA TO MAKE MORE OF A GRADUAL OR\r\nSQUARED-OFF RECURVATURE TRACK.  THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE AMONG THE\r\nVARIOUS COMPUTER MODELS NOW...ESPECIALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE\r\nGFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVN/GFS MODEL AND A LITTLE TO THE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS.\r\n \r\nALMA HAS LIKELY PEAKED OR IS VERY CLOSE TO IT...GIVEN THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND THE FACT THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS NOW NEARING 26C SSTS. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ANOTHER\r\nBRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION AND SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 6 HOURS AS WE MOVE INTO THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM\r\nPERIOD. OVERALL THOUGH...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TO OCCUR AS ALMA PASSES OVER SSTS AS LOW AS 24C BY 72\r\nHOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY AND IT\r\nINDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT\r\nBY 48 HOURS...WHICH COULD HELP TO KEEP THE INTENSITIES A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 14.9N 115.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 115.4W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.2N 115.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 18.1N 115.2W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.8N 114.9W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-05-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T5.5...102 KT...AND\r\nT5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KTS. ALMA HAS PROBABLY PEAKED AND SHOULD \r\nNOW BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND.  SHIPS GUIDANCE IS MAINLY USED FOR THE \r\nFORECASTS AND ITS MAIN REASONS FOR WEAKENING ARE COOLER SSTS AND \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OF 10 KTS OR GREATER OUT TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 360/7.  ALMA IS BEHAVING WELL AND\r\nCONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK AND THEREFORE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE\r\nAMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND ALL GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE STEERING \r\nCURRENTS WILL WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AND THE CYCLONE \r\nWILL SLOW DOWN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 15.6N 115.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 16.6N 115.3W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.3N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 114.7W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 19.7N 113.7W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-05-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/08.  THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE FORWARD MOTION TO WELL UNDER 5 \r\nKNOTS IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS RESULTS FROM A WEAK STEERING \r\nPATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE WITH A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL LOW TO \r\nITS NORTHWEST AND A WEAK RIDGE TO ITS EAST.  THE GFS SHOWS A \r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AND THE OTHERS ARE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY LEANING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED OVERNIGHT AND \r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE A LACK OF SYMMETRIC CONVECTION ON THE WEST \r\nSIDE...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KNOTS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 95 KNOTS.  \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES ALMA BY 72 HOURS PRIMARILY FROM COLDER \r\nSSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BUT NOT AS \r\nAGGRESSIVELY AS THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 16.6N 115.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.6N 115.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.7N 114.6W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 114.4W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-05-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 005/08.  THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET \r\n... AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO BE UNANIMOUS IN SLOWING THE FORWARD \r\nMOTION TO NEAR ZERO IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS RESULTS FROM A WEAK \r\nSTEERING PATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE WITH A CUT-OFF MID-LEVEL \r\nLOW TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A WEAK RIDGE TO ITS EAST.  THE GFS SHOWS A \r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AND THE OTHERS ARE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nLEANING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE FOUR MODELS AND SHOWS A VERY \r\nSLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE AT 5.5/102 KNOTS.  \r\nHOWEVER CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME \r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL WIND \r\nSPEED IS DECREASED TO 85 KNOTS.  APPARENTLY SOME COMBINATION OF \r\nCOLDER SSTS AND MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAVE INITIATED THE \r\nWEAKENING PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING \r\nFOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.8N 114.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 19.1N 114.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.3N 114.2W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.4N 114.0W    25 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-05-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2002\r\n\r\nALMA HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE PAST \r\n6 HOURS. THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND ELONGATED \r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...WHILE THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN BOTH VISIBLE \r\nAND INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A \r\nBLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 KT TO \r\n102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 6-HOUR ODT AVERAGE T-NUMBERS \r\nRANGING FROM T4.7/81 KT CDO AND T5.1/92 KT EYE PATTERNS. OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS GOOD TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT POOR AND/OR RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE \r\nDUE TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 005/08. ALMA REMAINS ON TRACK SO \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OTHER \r\nTHAN TO SHIFT IT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nLOW SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...WHICH IS \r\nALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ALSO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AS \r\nSUCH...THE TRACK OF ALMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH \r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE UKMET...AVN/GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS \r\nWANT TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN ALMA AND MAKE IT STATIONARY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS \r\nAND THEN GRADUALLY DRIFT IT SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALMA HAS A HISTORY \r\nOF BEING STRONGER THAN WHAT ANY OF THE FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN \r\nFORECASTING...SO I THINK THIS CYCLONE WILL STICK AROUND A LITTLE \r\nLONGER THAN WHAT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN THE AVN/GFS MODEL AND THE AVN/GFS \r\n10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND CLOSE TO THE NAVY COAMPS AND THE DEEP \r\nBAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST 9 HOURS...WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nINDICATE A HIGH-LEVEL TROUGH...PROBABLY ABOVE 200 MB...HAS TRAVERSED \r\nHURRICANE ALMA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND DISRUPTED THE \r\nINNER-CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXITING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SOME OF THE \r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION HAS STARTED TO MAKE A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST \r\nHOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...ALMA MAY MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY FOR \r\nTHE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS IT ENTERS THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM \r\nPERIOD...DESPITE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS NOW. THEREFORE...THE \r\nPREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND WEAKENING TREND WERE MAINTAINED... \r\nWHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 17.9N 115.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 18.8N 114.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.4N 114.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.7N 114.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.8N 113.7W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 112.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alma","Adv":27,"Date":"2002-05-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ALMA HAS BECOME FRAGMENTED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HR...AND THERE ARE HINTS IN BOTH MICROWAVE\r\nAND INFRARED IMAGERY THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nREDUCED TO 80 KT IN THIS PACKAGE BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER IS SEPARATING\r\nFROM THE CONVECTION THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE USUAL PROBLEMS OF FINDING A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER AT NIGHT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EASTERNMOST\r\nOF THE SATELLITE FIXES.  THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 360/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nNEAR 30N121W IS MOVING NORTHWARD...WHICH IS LEAVING ALMA TRAPPED\r\nIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE MOSTLY RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING A SLOW TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE BAMS AND BAMM ARE THE \r\nEXCEPTIONS...CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  RIGHT NOW...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE EASTWARD TURNING MODELS AND\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT IF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED WHERE IT APPEARS\r\nTO BE IN IR IMAGERY...THIS INDICATES A WESTWARD OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT IS NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY ANY \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nALMA IS NOW OVER 24C-25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS UNDER\r\n15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE COMBINATION...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nWEAKEN.  THE WEAKENING TREND TREND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nIN ABOUT 72 HR.\r\n \r\nIF VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING\r\nMORE NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD...SIGNIFICANT REVISIONS IN BOTH\r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS WILL BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 18.2N 115.1W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.7N 115.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.3N 114.8W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.7N 114.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 113.7W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 113.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":28,"Date":"2002-05-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002\r\n \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER ALMA AND \r\nREMOVED MOST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH INDEED IS VERY LIMITED AT THIS \r\nTIME. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED AND DRIFTING WESTWARD.  \r\nT-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT THEY ARE CONSTRAINED \r\nBY THE DVORAK RULES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS... \r\nA GENEROUS VALUE FOR SUCH A DEGRADED CLOUD PATTERN. BECAUSE THE \r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND THE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY COOL...ALMA \r\nWILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOST LIKELY WILL DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS \r\nOR SO. SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE \r\nDISSIPATION. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK SO LITTLE OR \r\nERRATIC MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS ARE \r\nSUGGESTING MOTIONS TOWARD ALL QUADRANTS.  THIS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF \r\nTHE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING FLOW.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 18.3N 116.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 18.7N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 116.5W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":29,"Date":"2002-05-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002\r\n \r\nALMA IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS\r\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. HIGHEST WINDS OBSERVED BY THE LAST PAST\r\nOF QUIKSCAT EARLIER TODAY WERE 40 KNOTS.  ALMA IS SURROUNDED BY\r\nDRY AIR AND IS MEANDERING OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\nTHEREFORE...A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ALMA MAY BECOME A \r\nWEAK LOW SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. SOME INTERMITTENT \r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nALMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS AND BECAUSE THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NO SIGNIFICANT \r\nMOTION IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 17.7N 115.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alma","Adv":30,"Date":"2002-06-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI MAY 31 2002\r\n \r\nALMA HAS WEAKENED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND IS DEVOID OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION.  SINCE THE LAST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z SHOWED MAXIMUM \r\nWINDS OF 40 KNOTS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WIND SPEED HAS DECREASED \r\nTO 30 KNOTS IN THE INTERVENING 11 HOURS.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE \r\nINDICATED CONTINUED WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IS THAT ALMA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY IN \r\nA WEAK STEERING CURRENT UNTIL ITS DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 17.7N 115.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 17.7N 115.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alma","Adv":31,"Date":"2002-06-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 01 2002\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z INDICATED WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...AND \r\nIT IS PRESUMED THAT SOME ADDITIONAL SPIN DOWN HAS OCCURRED SINCE \r\nTHEN.  THE TRANSFORMATION OF ALMA FROM A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A NON- \r\nCONVECTIVE LOW IS NEARLY COMPLETE...AS ALMA HAS NOT GENERATED ANY \r\nDEEP CONVECTION...A REQUIREMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR \r\nABOUT 18 HOURS.  ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING \r\nUNLESS ALMA UNEXPECTEDLY COMES BACK TO LIFE.  A REMNANT CLOSED \r\nCIRCULATION WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL STATIONARY.  ALMA IS EMBEDDED \r\nIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE \r\nMUCH BEFORE THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 17.8N 115.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alma","Adv":32,"Date":"2002-06-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 01 2002\r\n \r\nALMA CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF\r\nCONVECTION.  AS ANTICIPATED...ALMA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A REMNANT LOW MAY \r\nLINGER FOR A DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 17.8N 115.7W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-06-08 17:15:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1015 AM PDT SAT JUN 08 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL \r\nDISTURBANCE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND \r\nIT NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED \r\nTO BE 305/5.  THERE IS ONLY WEAK RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE \r\nCYCLONE ON A TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING...BUT THE SYSTEM IS \r\nALREADY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT \r\nDATA.  TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED \r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AS ONLY A SMALL \r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL \r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  HEAVY RAINS...WITH POTENTIALLY \r\nDANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING...ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL REGIONS ARE \r\nPOSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1715Z 16.3N 102.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.7N 103.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 17.4N 104.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.7N 106.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 107.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-06-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUN 08 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 35 \r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT A BIT \r\nNOW...SO I WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT.  NEITHER THE INFLOW NOR \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERNS LOOK IDEAL AT THIS TIME...WITH THE DEPRESSION \r\nSEEMINGLY DRAWING MOST OF ITS INFLOW FROM THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  \r\nTHERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS NOT \r\nFORECAST TO ABATE APPRECIABLY.  DESPITE THIS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 54 KT IN 72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE \r\nPROXIMITY OF MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE \r\nANTICIPATED SHEAR...I AM NOT FORECASTING AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/6.  THE AVN/GFS AND GFDL TRACK SOLUTIONS \r\nARE SIMILAR...WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. \r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MUTUAL ROTATION OF THE CYCLONE WITH THE \r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE COAST EAST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE \r\nMODEL...WHICH MAY BE OVERDONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS A MORE \r\nWESTWARD TRACK AND IS CLOSER TO THE BAMS THAN TO THE AVN OR GFDL. \r\n\r\nINCIDENTALLY...THE PRODUCT HEADER ON SPECIAL ADVISORY 1 WAS \r\nINCORRECTLY SET TO MIATCDEP1/WTPZ41 THIS MORNING.  ALL PRODUCT \r\nHEADERS HAVE BEEN CORRECTED FOR THIS...AND HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT... \r\nADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/2100Z 16.6N 103.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/1800Z 17.6N 104.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/0600Z 18.3N 105.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 106.8W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-06-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUN 08 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALSO ESTABLISHED.  BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE 2.5 PLUS...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BORIS...THE SECOND NAMED CYCLONE OF THE \r\nSEASON. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS AND GIVEN THAT BORIS IS \r\nHEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF STABLE AIR AND HIGHER SHEAR...ONLY A SMALL \r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM RATHER WEAK.\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHILE ORGANIZING...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nHAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN 8 AND 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...\r\nBORIS SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nWEAKEN. IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nAROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...BAM MODELS AND CLIMATOLOGY.  ON THIS \r\nTRACK...BORIS AND ITS AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BE \r\nPARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY \r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO \r\nTHE COAST. \r\n \r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO POINT OUT THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL\r\nKEEP BORIS WITH LITTLE MOTION AND PRACTICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE\r\nIN SITU. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY\r\nBY SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BUT IT WAS HARD FOR ME TO IGNORE\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0300Z 16.9N 104.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.3N 105.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0000Z 18.0N 106.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N 108.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-06-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUN 09 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS \r\nVERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS \r\nWITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A WEAK TROUGH \r\nJUST NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS A \r\nLITTLE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FRO TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KNOTS AS A RATHER \r\nIMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE RECENTLY FORMED.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE \r\nWARMED AGAIN EVEN MORE RECENTLY SO THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO \r\nONLY 45 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 18 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nFROM THE GFS MODEL OVER THE STORM...INCREASING TO 28 KNOTS IN 48 \r\nHOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST PEAKS AT 55 KNOTS \r\nAT 12 THROUGH 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THE STRONG \r\nWINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAIN OFF SHORE...SO THE TROPICAL STORM \r\nWATCH FOR THE COAST IS NOT CHANGED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/0900Z 17.2N 104.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     09/1800Z 17.7N 105.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/0600Z 18.2N 106.3W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     10/1800Z 18.6N 107.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/0600Z 18.9N 107.6W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/0600Z 19.5N 108.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-06-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUN 09 2002\r\n\r\nRADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO AND THE LATEST SATELLITE FIX FROM TAFB \r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY \r\nESTIMATED...SO BORIS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\n APPARENTLY THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BEING OFFSET BY \r\nWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM.  \r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...THE U.K. MET OFFICE \r\nMODEL...AND THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL SUGGEST VERY SLOW MOTION OVER \r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN  \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PURELY DYNAMICAL \r\nMODELS AND THE MORE SIMPLIFIED TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS BAMS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME ANY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER \r\nTHIS MORNING.  IN FACT...THE DEEP CONVECTION LOOKS QUITE RAGGED AT \r\nTHE MOMENT WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL OR BANDING FEATURES.  BORIS \r\nIS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN \r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nEASTERLIES OVER BORIS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE...SO NOT MUCH \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...MORE \r\nSTABLE AIR AND CONTINUED SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS OVER BORIS SHOWED \r\nWINDS TO 50 KT...BUT NO CLOSED CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nRADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT SOME OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH BORIS \r\nHAS BEEN SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST DURING THE PAST FEW \r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 16.8N 104.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.9N 104.7W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.1N 105.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.4N 105.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-06-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUN 09 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS \r\nORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING.  EASTERLY SHEARING \r\nCONTINUES TO PREVAIL AND A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS \r\nBECOME APPARENT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THUS...THE CURRENT \r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nMAINTAINS BORIS' INTENSITY...AND EVEN STRENGTHENS THE STORM A BIT... \r\nIN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT SHEAR IN THE 25 KT RANGE.  THIS IS \r\nPRIMARILY BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER WARM WATER \r\nFOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  I AM SHOWING NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL \r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT BORIS MAY SUCCUMB TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC \r\nENVIRONMENT SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING SOMEWHAT...BUT APPEARS TO BE \r\nESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  BORIS CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGES...ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ONE TO THE SOUTH.  \r\nGLOBAL MODELS...I.E. THE NCEP...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS...SHOW A WEAK \r\nSTEERING REGIME CONTINUING FOR A FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 17.2N 104.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.4N 104.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 104.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 105.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W    30 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-06-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUN 09 2002\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BECOME ALMOST NON-EXISTENT \r\nNEAR THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE \r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED OR NON-EXISTENT TO THE EAST \r\nDUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 55 \r\nKT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN EARLIER REPORT FROM SHIP ELYL8 OF \r\n39 KT AND A 1003.8 MB PRESSURE ABOUT 70 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/02. ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AND THE LATEST 18Z GFDL RUN DISSIPATE BORIS WITHIN 48 \r\nHOURS...AND THEN KEEP THE CIRCULATION MILLING AROUND NEAR ITS \r\nCURRENT LOCATION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE AVN/GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIFTS \r\nBORIS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HOURS AND THEN TAKES THE REMNANT \r\nCIRCULATION SLOWLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE \r\nPERSISTENCE OF THE MODELS IN DISSIPATING BORIS OVER THE PAST FEW \r\nMODEL RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSER TO THE AVN/GFS SOLUTION \r\nAFTER THAT. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO BORIS COULD EASILY REMAIN STATIONARY.\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BORIS IS NOT LOOKING TOO \r\nHEALTHY...TO SAY THE LEAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HOLDS ON TO \r\nTHE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND ONLY DECREASES THE INTENSITY \r\nTO 40 KT IN 72 HOURS...IN SPITE OF SOME RATHER HOSTILE EAST TO \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 25 TO 35 KT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF VERTICAL \r\nSHEAR FORECAST BY THE AVN/GFS MODEL...COUPLED WITH THE DRY SUBSIDING \r\nAIR BEING ENTRAINED FROM MEXICO...I HAVE OPTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN \r\nBORIS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12 HOUR FORECAST INTENSITY \r\nMAY BE RATHER GENEROUS...BUT I DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OUT \r\nOF RESPECT FOR A POSSIBLE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE FLAREUP LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT RADII WERE DECREASED SLIGHTLY AND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII \r\nWERE INCREASED BASED ON 21Z AND 00Z REPORTS FROM SHIP ELYL8.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 17.3N 104.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.7N 104.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 17.9N 104.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 18.2N 105.4W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 18.4N 106.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 18.0N 107.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-06-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUN 10 2002\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  \r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION DURING THE \r\nNEXT 72 HOURS BUT SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION.  ONLY THE GFS MODEL SHOWS \r\nAN APPRECIABLE MOTION AND IT IS SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nEXCEPT FOR A RECENT SMALL FLARE-UP NEAR THE CENTER...THERE IS VERY \r\nLITTLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT \r\nPASS SHOWED A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION WITH A 35 KNOT MAXIMUM.  \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES ARE CONSTRAINED TO 45 KNOTS ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS ARE \r\nONLY 30 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 40 KNOTS.  THE \r\nSHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES THE GFS MODEL WITH 22 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nAND INCREASING TO 28 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR \r\nCONTINUING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND AND BORIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL \r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IT IS \r\nINTERESTING THAT THE SHIPS MODEL KEEPS BORIS A STORM THROUGH 72 \r\nHOURS AND LONGER BASED STRICTLY ON WARM SSTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 17.3N 104.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 104.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.7N 104.3W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N 104.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.9N 104.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 105.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-06-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUN 10 2002\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED FORECASTER NAME...\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS LOST PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED 35 KT WINDS AND IT IS ASSUMED \r\nTHAT BORIS HAS WEAKENED SINCE THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS BEING \r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  THUS THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE \r\nCOAST IS CANCELED.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL MAINTAINS STRONG EASTERLY \r\nSHEAR OVER THE AREA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...I.E. AN UNFAVORABLE \r\nATMOSPHERE ENVIRONMENT FOR REGENERATION.  BORIS MAY EXHIBIT SOME \r\nOCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT \r\nIT IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER IN THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES \r\nTHAT THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE.  SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST... \r\nLIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOVES BORIS VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD CRAWL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 104.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N 104.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 104.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 106.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-06-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUN 10 2002\r\n\r\nBORIS REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH SPORADIC BURSTS \r\nOF HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE \r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND SOON DISSIPATE INTO A \r\nREMNANT LOW.  STRONG...PERSISTENT...EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA \r\nSHOULD DISCOURAGE REGENERATION.  \r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE ILL-DEFINED...AND BORIS HAS BEEN \r\nDRIFTING ERRATICALLY OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE LAST COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WESTWARD DRIFT.  THIS IS A \r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 17.0N 103.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 105.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-06-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 10 2002\r\n \r\nBORIS REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DURING THE \r\nPAST FEW HOURS...SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND \r\nENCIRCLED THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SHALLOW CONVECTION \r\nHAS ALSO INCREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nGIVEN THAT CONVECTION STILL REMAINS WITH BORIS...ALBEIT LESS THAN \r\nIMPRESSIVE...I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR \r\nREASONING. BORIS HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR \r\nSO. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...SO LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS \r\nEXPECTED OTHER THAN A SLOW DRIFT TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS \r\nPER THE 18Z AVN/GFS MODEL RUN. THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL \r\nMODEL INDICATE A NEARLY STATIONARY MOTION OR SOUTHWARD DRIFT FOR THE \r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nUNLESS SOME SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS DURING THE DIURNAL \r\nCONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT...THEN BORIS WILL LIKELY \r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO \r\n24 HOURS. THE GFDL...AVN/GFS...AND UKMET MODELS ALL DISSIPATE BORIS \r\nIN 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS BORIS THROUGH \r\n36 HOURS AND THEN ACTUALLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE BACK UP 40 TO 45 KT IN \r\n72 HOURS. THAT WOULD ONLY HAPPEN IF DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPS NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE STRONG \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 17.1N 103.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 103.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 16.9N 104.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 16.8N 104.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 16.7N 104.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-06-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 11 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT BORIS EXCEPT THAT IT IS A STATIONARY\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nSTRONG OVER THE SYSTEM AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE. THEREFORE...\r\nREGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME INTERMITTENT BURST\r\nOF CONVECTION MAT STILL OCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM MAY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED OR A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY\r\nWHEN VISIBLE PICTURES BECOME AVAILABLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 17.1N 103.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-06-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 11 2002\r\n \r\nA FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER...SO WE WILL NOT DISCONTINUE ADVISORIES THIS MORNING.  THE \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION THAT IS NOT AS \r\nWELL-DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.  IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM \r\nWINDS ARE DOWN TO 25 KT...AND STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT \r\nSIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED \r\nDISSIPATED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST...THE MOTION HAS \r\nBEEN SO SLOW THAT IT CAN BE CONSIDERED QUASI-STATIONARY.  STEERING \r\nCURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK SO BORIS SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH \r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 17.2N 103.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.2N 103.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 103.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-06-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 11 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BORIS HAS DISSIPATED AND THE LOW \r\nCLOUD CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED.  SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL \r\nIS LESS DEFINED....MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AN \r\nESTIMATED 25 KT.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE AREA SHOULD \r\nPREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS REMAIN VERY WEAK SO BORIS' REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED \r\nTO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON BORIS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 17.0N 103.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING \r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 103.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 103.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 103.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 103.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 103.0W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-06-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2002\r\n\r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN APPARENT CLOSED CIRCULATION AND \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THIS BASIS.  \r\n\r\nWE HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN TRACKING A CENTER FURTHER SOUTH...SO THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS \r\nSUGGEST A CONTINUED MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SLOW \r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\n FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 11.6N 122.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 11.7N 123.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 11.8N 125.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 11.8N 127.8W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 11.9N 129.9W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 12.0N 134.0W    40 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-06-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  THE GFS MODEL MAINTAINS A \r\nWEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SO THAT THE \r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 \r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A NORTHWARD SHIFT TO THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS RATHER POORLY DEFINED ON SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE \r\nWIND SPEED REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERY SLOW \r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 12.2N 123.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.6N 125.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 13.1N 128.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.6N 130.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.0N 133.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 14.5N 137.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-06-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nDISORGANIZED.  HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY BUT STILL SUPPORT 30 KNOT\r\nWINDS.  THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS IN ABOUT A DAY BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AND WEAKENING BEGIN.  THE DEPRESSION MAY BECOME A WEAK\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FASTER THAN FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. THERE \r\nIS ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK \r\nFOR A DAY OR TWO. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOW...IT \r\nCOULD MOVE MORE TO THE WEST...STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RAPIDLY WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING \r\nWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 12.5N 125.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 13.2N 127.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.0N 130.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 132.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N 135.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-06-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002\r\n \r\nWHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E CONTINUES TO GENERATE IMPRESSIVE\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION...A 0532Z SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATES THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.\r\nWHILE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD\r\nEXPLAIN SUCH A DISPLACEMENT...IT DOES MEAN THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED.  MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED\r\nBY A LARGE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE AVN...CALL FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION.\r\nHOWEVER...AVN-BASED GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE BAM MODELS AND THE NHC91\r\nCALL FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING\r\nFOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND AS LONG AS CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE OF STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW IN WHICH TO DO SO\r\nAPPEARS TO BE CLOSING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE IN\r\n24-36 HR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS DEVELOPMENT IS\r\nALREADY UNDERWAY.  EVEN THE UKMET...THE WEAKEST WITH THE TROUGH\r\nAND THE RESULTING SHEAR...SHOWS A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nFIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nDISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE\r\nAVN/NOGAPS TROUGH FORECAST VERIFIES.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 12.6N 126.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 12.9N 128.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 13.4N 130.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 13.8N 132.8W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 14.0N 135.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-06-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12.  THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A \r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO \r\nTHE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A SIMILAR SHIFT TO THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE AND OUTFLOW \r\nALOFT...BUT A 08Z TRMM PASS SHOWED A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD \r\nSTRUCTURE CENTERED AT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SO \r\nTHE WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THERE IS STILL 12 HOURS OR SO \r\nFOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AFTER \r\nTHAT...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO START THE \r\nDISSIPATION PROCESS.  THE SHPS MODEL...USING THE GFS MODEL... \r\nDIAGNOSES 31 KNOTS OF SHEAR AT 24 HOURS INCREASING TO 48 KNOTS OF \r\nSHEAR AT 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 12.2N 127.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 12.3N 129.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 12.4N 132.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 12.4N 134.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 12.5N 137.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N 140.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-06-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002\r\n \r\nGOES10 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION \r\nAND A SUGGESTION OF A QUASI INTERLOCKING BANDING PATTERN.  A 14Z \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH RATHER \r\nTHAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE \r\nDEPRESSION ADVISORIES AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM HAS THE APPEARANCE OF \r\nBEING WELL-ORGANIZED.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR SLIGHT \r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS \r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE TO 37 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS AND HIGHER THEREAFTER.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT \r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS RELOCATED ABOUT 75 N MI SOUTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS POSITION IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AS THE \r\nQUIKSCAT SHOWS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IS ROUGHLY NEAR THE CENTER \r\nOF THE INTERLOCKING PATTERN.  HOWEVER...LATEST VIS IMAGES SUGGEST \r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION ONCE \r\nAGAIN. THE FORECAST TRACK IS DUE WEST FOR 72 HOURS UNDER A LOW/MID \r\nLEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 11.0N 129.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 11.0N 130.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 11.0N 133.1W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 11.0N 135.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 11.0N 137.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 11.0N 142.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-06-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 28 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME \r\nWELL-REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION AND IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW \r\nCLOUDS.  THIS HAS MADE THE CENTER EASIER TO LOCATE.  AN UPPER-TROUGH \r\nREACHED THE AREA AND IS PRODUCING A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT. IN \r\nFACT...THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS. WE \r\nARE KEEPING A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION BUT THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW BY DAYLIGHT \r\nSATURDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE SWIRL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 13 KNOTS OR FASTER AND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 12.7N 132.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 12.8N 133.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 13.0N 136.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 13.0N 137.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N 139.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-06-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 29 2002\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED \r\nAND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW.  AN UPPER-TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW \r\nIS PRODUCING A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND IS FORECAST TO \r\nCONTINUE TO DO SO. \r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 17 KNOTS AND SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON TD THREE-E UNLESS REGENERATION \r\nOCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 12.9N 134.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 13.3N 136.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 13.5N 139.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 13.6N 142.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-07-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 325 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS\r\nDEVELOPED INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO \r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY \r\nCLUSTERED ABOUT THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN \r\nDIVERGES AFTER THAT. THE 06Z NOGAPS MODEL IS THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL \r\nTHE MODELS...MAINLY BECAUSE IT INITIALIZED THE SYSTEM ABOUT 1.5 \r\nDEGREES TOO FAR NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE \r\nSLOWER AVN AND GFDL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO \r\nDUE TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER \r\nTHE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAT IS CREATING THE SHEAR CONDITIONS IS \r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE THE DEPRESSION \r\nMOVES WESTWARD. AS THE TWO SYSTEMS BECOME MORE SEPARATED...THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT \r\nINTENSIFICATION IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. THE 06Z GFDL MODEL \r\nRUN BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 115 KT IN 72 HOURS.  WHILE THIS IS \r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN ON THE \r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF \r\nDECREASING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE \r\nSYSTEM UP TO 74 KT IN 72 HOURS...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE MODEL USING \r\nTHE FASTER LBAR MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER WATER \r\nSOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/1500Z 11.5N 100.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0000Z 11.9N 102.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1200Z 12.3N 104.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0000Z 12.7N 106.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1200Z 13.5N 108.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-07-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 09 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE DAY. \r\nMODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS RESULTED IN MAINLY BRIEF \r\nPULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...INNER-CORE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED DURING \r\nTHE LAST 3 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND \r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF \r\nTHE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO \r\nTHE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE \r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...EXCEPT FOR THE AVN MODEL \r\nWHICH HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT DROP TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOW THE \r\nLEFTMOST MODEL. THIS MAY BE DUE TO ITS FARTHER SOUTH INITIALIZATION. \r\nTHE GFDL IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS \r\nALMOST ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. AS SUCH...I HAVE \r\nNOT MADE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nSLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO\r\nOWING TO MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR. AS THE DEPRESSION \r\nMOVES FARTHER WEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN \r\nAND EVEN BECOME SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE \r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATTER PERIODS. THE 12Z GFDL \r\nMODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS TREND OF BRINGING THE CYCLONE UP TO 115 KT \r\nIN 66 HOURS...BUT ONLY BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO 83 KT IN 60 HOURS \r\nWHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE \r\nCYCLONE UP TO 76 KT IN 72 HOURS...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL CHIPS MODEL \r\nHAS 98 KT IN 72 HOURS. A CONSENSUS FORECAST THAT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER \r\nTHAN SHIPS WAS FOLLOWED GIVEN THE PRESENT SHEAR PATTERN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     09/2100Z 12.1N 102.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/0600Z 12.4N 104.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     10/1800Z 12.7N 106.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/0600Z 13.2N 108.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     11/1800Z 13.9N 110.1W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-07-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 09 2002\r\n \r\nNOT MUCH CAN BE WRITTEN ABOUT THE DEPRESSION. IT CONSISTS OF A\r\nSHAPELESS CLOUD MASS AND A LOW-LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nFIND. IN FACT...I AM NOT SURE IF THERE IS ONE AT THIS TIME. LATEST\r\nAVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS RUNNING\r\nWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF STRONG\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE USING CONTINUITY IS 280/14. A MODERATE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nSTEERING THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nIS LIKELY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND WITH SUCH\r\nPATTERN...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 36 HOURS...IF THE DEPRESSION\r\nSURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER SHEAR AND INTENSIFICATION\r\nCOULD THEN BEGIN.  BOTH...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS STRENGTHEN THE\r\nDEPRESSION SIGNIFICANTLY.  AT THIS TIME...I HAVE TO FOLLOW THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IT MAY \r\nCHANGE IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0300Z 12.5N 104.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1200Z 12.9N 106.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0000Z 13.0N 108.3W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1200Z 13.5N 110.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 114.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-07-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 10 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS BEEN LITTLE MORE THAN A LOW-CLOUD\r\nSWIRL FOR THE LAST 6-9 HOURS...LACKING THE REQUISITE ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IT IS ALSO QUESTIONABLE WHETHER\r\nTHERE IS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nOFFERED SCANT EVIDENCE OF SUCH.  WHILE THERE IS A TEMPTATION TO\r\nDISCONTINUE ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM...I AM RELUCTANT TO DO SO ON\r\nNIGHTTIME IMAGERY...AND THERE IS AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION AS\r\nDISCUSSED BELOW.\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS WHAT PASSES FOR A CENTER RACED AHEAD OF \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.  A SECOND AREA OF \r\nCONVECTION AND CYCLONIC TURNING...DISTINCT FROM TD FOUR-E...IS \r\nCENTERED ABOUT 175 NM TO ITS SOUTH.  THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THESE TWO \r\nSYSTEMS WILL COALESCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DEVELOP INTO \r\nA SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE AS THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR LESSENS AND \r\nTHE OVERALL SYSTEM MOVES UNDER UPPER ANTICYLONIC FLOW.  IF THIS \r\nOCCURS...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT DEPRESSION WILL HAVE \r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE ULTIMATE CYCLONE...OR WHETHER FOUR-E WILL \r\nDISSIPATE AND A NEW CYCLONE DEVELOP.  WHILE I SUSPECT THE LATTER \r\nWILL OCCUR...I HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO FORECAST DISSIPATION SO THAT THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BETTER CONVEYS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT \r\nSYSTEM IN TWO OR THREE DAYS TIME.\r\n\r\nA STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A \r\nBASIC EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE \r\nAVN...WHICH HAS BEEN HARD TO BEAT THIS YEAR...IS SOUTH OF AND FASTER \r\nTHAN MOST OF THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS \r\nFASTER THAN THE PRECEDING ONE...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 \r\nHOURS...AND IS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/0900Z 13.0N 105.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     10/1800Z 13.4N 107.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     11/1800Z 13.8N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 117.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-07-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 10 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL \r\nDEPRESSION FOUR-E AND A 10/1019Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED GOOD \r\nBANDING FEATURES AND A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A \r\nBLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT \r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. A RECENT 1300Z QUIKSCAT \r\nOVERPASS ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE IS INDEED A CLOSED CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/15. THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE \r\nIS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE 1019Z TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT \r\nTHE CENTER WAS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. AS SUCH...THE \r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY \r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVING SAID THAT...THERE REMAINS GOOD \r\nCONVERGENCE OF ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE OF A GENERAL WEST MOTION \r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE AVN AND AVN 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE \r\nAVERAGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK MORE TOWARD THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE NEW GFDL MODEL.  \r\nTHE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT AND TAKE \r\nTHE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS. THE AVN MODEL HAS DONE A \r\nGOOD JOB SO FAR WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN TD 4-E AND THE DISTURBANCE \r\nTO ITS SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE LATTER FEATURE APPEARS TO HAVE \r\nDISSIPATED AND/OR BEEN ABSORBED BY THE DEPRESSION...SO THE SHARP \r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT THE EARLIER AVN AND GFDL MODELS HAVE \r\nBEEN FORECASTING IS LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE \r\nTO THE NEW AVN...AVN ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS... \r\nESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 4 HOURS...CIRRUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING WESTWARD ON THE \r\nWEST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR \r\nMAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTREGTHENING TO BEGIN IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO THE SHIPS AND GFDL \r\nINTENSITY TRENDS WERE FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH EACH BRINGING THE \r\nCYCLONE UP TO 82 KT AND 91 KT IN 72 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/1500Z 13.3N 107.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0000Z 13.5N 109.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1200Z 13.7N 111.6W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0000Z 14.4N 113.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 115.6W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-07-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 10 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE ALLEGED \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH \r\nTAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS VERY NEAR OR \r\nALREADY AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS \r\nHELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION \r\nBASED ON THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE FIX POSITIONS BY ALL THREE \r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13.  THE LAST 3 TRMM AND SSMI \r\nOVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN TRACKING DUE WEST. \r\nTHE CENTER LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE \r\nMICROWAVE FIX POSITIONS RATHER THAN INDICATING AN ACTUAL TURN TO THE \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR \r\nAPPEARS TO BE DECREASING. AS SUCH...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS \r\nFORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT \r\nAS THE SHEAR DECREASES TO LESS THAN 10 KT.\r\n\r\nNOTE: 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED BASED ON NEARBY SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     10/2100Z 13.0N 108.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/0600Z 13.2N 110.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     11/1800Z 13.4N 112.6W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/0600Z 13.7N 114.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N 116.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 118.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-07-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 10 2002\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTHE LIMITED CONVECTION.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nACCORDINGLY.  THIS LOCATION IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH IN FACT SUGGEST T-NUMBERS LOWER\r\nTHAN EARLIER TODAY.  SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOT WELL DEFINED WITH SOME CLOUD LINES MOVING AWAY\r\nFROM THE SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION...SHIP MZFK4 REPORTED WEST WINDS OF\r\nONLY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE BODY OF THE DEPRESSION.  NO CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  BECAUSE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN IN\r\n24 HOUR OR SO.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY WEAKEN BEYOND 72 HOURS AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 \r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODERATE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A GRADUAL \r\nTURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE RIDGE. THE STEERING FLOW \r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS \r\nANTICIPATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS \r\nAND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0300Z 14.1N 109.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-07-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 11 2002\r\n \r\nTHIS SYSTEM...AN EXPOSED CLOUD SWIRL WITH LIMITED SHAPELESS\r\nCONVECTION...BARELY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  T NUMBERS ARE\r\n1.5...1.0...AND 0.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY.  THESE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0109Z...INDICATES\r\nTHAT WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY HIGHER THAN ABOUT 25 KT.  THE SHIP\r\nBRITISH HARRIER...ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...\r\nREPORTED NNE WINDS AT 15 KT WITH INTERMITTANT DRIZZLE AND MINIMAL\r\nSEAS.  IF THE CLOUD SWIRL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION IT IS A VERY\r\nSMALL ONE INDEED.\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL SYSTEM IS NOT MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS \r\nAGO.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS AT ONE END \r\nOF AN ELONGATED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE CURRENT CONVECTION... \r\nWHICH IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER...APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED \r\nWITH THE TROUGH.  THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE SYSTEM TO \r\nCONSOLIDATE...ALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW IS \r\nFOR ONLY MODERATE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE \r\nENCOUNTERED NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST... \r\nALTHOUGH THE MOTION IN THE NEAR TERM MAY BE ERRATIC AS THE SYSTEM \r\nORGANIZES.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN... \r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/0900Z 14.5N 110.2W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.9N 111.9W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 113.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.4N 115.2W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.5N 116.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-07-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 11 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS CONTINUED ITS PAST TREND OF \r\nDEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION AT NIGHT AND THEN LOSING IT DURING THE \r\nDAYLIGHT HOURS. NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE ALLEGED \r\nCENTER...BUT NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO \r\nLOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  SHIP MZFK4 HAS BEEN \r\nTRAVERSING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO AND \r\nHAS PROVIDED VALUABLE DATA TO HELP BETTER ASCERTAIN WHERE THE CENTER \r\nOF THE NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED CIRCULATION IS LOCATED. HOWEVER...THE \r\nINITIAL POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY WITH \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 25 KT BASED ON TAFB AND SAB \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A NEW\r\nCENTER MAY FORM FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE DEEPER CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE CYCLONE TO TRACK\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AFTER THAT AS THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nTHE MORE NORTHERLY NOGAPS AND THE GFDN MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACKS THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFDL-AVN-UKMET CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE\r\nAVN AND GFDL SCENARIO OF TAKING A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM MORE\r\nWESTWARD AFTER THAT. \r\n\r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL OR REGIONAL MODELS HAVE HANDLED THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nFLOW VERY WELL. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SYSTEM \r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME MORE EASTERLY \r\nAFTER THAT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE FOR THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. BY THE TIME THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A MORE \r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IT MAY BE \r\nAPPROACHING COOLER SSTS. IF THE DEPRESSION TAKES A MORE WESTERLY \r\nTRACK THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING...THEN IT WOULD \r\nREMAIN OVER WARMER WATER A LITTLE LONGER AND THE SYSTEM COULD STILL \r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.7N 112.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 114.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.7N 115.5W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.7N 117.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-07-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 11 2002\r\n \r\nRIGHT ON SCHEDULE LIKE THE PAST 2 DAYS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E \r\nHAS UNDERGONE A BURSTING PHASE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE CLOSER TO \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...SO THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE \r\nFARTHER TO THE SOUTH AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORY \r\nPOSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...35 KT AND 30 KT FROM \r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY WAS \r\nHELD DOWN SLIGHTLY...LIKE THIS SAME TIME YESTERDAY...DUE TO THE \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE \r\nINTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION THE PAST 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLY MORE \r\nSPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW THAN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GENERAL TENDENCY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR \r\nTHE GFDN AND GFDL MODELS...IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TRACK WESTWARD FOR \r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR \r\nNORTHWEST AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND ERODES \r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS TAKE \r\nTHE DEPRESSION ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT THOSE \r\nSCENARIOS WERE DISCOUNTED DUE TO (A) THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND (B) THE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND \r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE AVN AND AVN 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE AVERAGE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL KEEPS THE CYCLONE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH \r\nDESPITE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ABOVE 28C. THE NEW GFDL \r\nRUN BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO 91 KT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE \r\nDECREASING SHEAR EXPECTED AFTER 36 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN MAINTAINS THAT INTENSITY DUE TO THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER SUB- \r\n26C SSTS BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 14.5N 111.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.7N 113.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 115.0W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.9N 116.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 117.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 118.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-07-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 11 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION FINALLY CONSOLIDATED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE ARE ALSO A FEW BANDING FEATURES.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND IS EXPANDING WESTWARD CONSIDERABLY AS\r\nTHE SHEAR RELAXES.  T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  CONSEQUENTLY...FOUR-E IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM CRISTINA AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nWITHIN A FAIRLY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AND THE SYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN 72 HOURS.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nINTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM SIGNIFICANTLY...THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW \r\nONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SMALL MID-LEVEL HIGH NORTHWEST OF \r\nCRISTINA. THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE RESTRUCTURING OF THE \r\nSYSTEM RESULTED IN A WEST OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK DURING THE PAST \r\nFEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGES ALSO SHOW A LARGE TROUGH \r\nADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD CRISTINA. THIS PATTERN MAY FORCE THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  \r\nTHIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE \r\nVERSUS CLIMATOLOGY WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. SOME MODELS \r\nSHOW A MORE AGGRESSIVE TURN TO THE NORTH THAN OTHERS. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL WHICH TURNS CRISTINA \r\nGRADUALLY. BEYOND 72 HOURS...AS CRISTINA WEAKENS...IT COULD TURN \r\nBACK TO THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 14.2N 113.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.2N 114.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.3N 115.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.5N 116.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 117.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-07-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...BUT TIMELY\r\nSSMI OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF CRISTINA IS STILL\r\nELONGATED AND PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF WHAT HAS BEEN\r\nCOLD AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WITH 35 KT FROM SAB...45 KT FROM\r\nKGWC...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB.  MY INTERPRETATION OF THE SSMI IMAGERY\r\nIS THAT CRISTINA IS STILL UNDER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND HAS NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED FURTHER...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY REMAINS 35 KT.  HOWEVER...RECENT AMSU-BASED PRESSURE \r\nESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS ARE BEGINNING TO FALL...SO THE WINDS MAY \r\nSOON FOLLOW.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE SSTS ARE STILL WARM THE \r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN...WHICH SHOULD GIVE \r\nCRISTINA A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER\r\nCUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN BAJA THAT HAS BEGUN TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHARP UPPER\r\nTROUGH NEAR 120W OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR AND\r\nCRISTINA STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED...THE CURRENT WESTWARD TRACK COULD\r\nTURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD.  THE AVN...UKMET...AND GFDL ARE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A SHARP TURN WITHIN 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT\r\nAVN ENSEMBLE MEAN IS NOT AS SHARP WITH THE TURN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE.    \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 14.2N 114.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N 115.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.5N 116.3W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.2N 117.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 118.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-07-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002\r\n\r\nTHE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE CHRISTINA THIS MORNING IS MESSY.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER RAGGED.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT 1003Z\r\nSHOWED AN EXPOSED CENTER JUST NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...\r\nAND IR IMAGERY SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THAT TIME.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SINCE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 55 KT...45\r\nKT...AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/10.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS ALSO\r\nMESSY.  THE AVN...UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN ALL CALL FOR\r\nA NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE BAM MODELS AND LBAR\r\nCALL FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HR...WHILE THE NHC91\r\nWANTS TO TAKE CHRISTINA SOUTHWESTWARD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND RIDGING\r\nCOVERING THE AREA SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN 120W-140W...WITH UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING NEAR 25N120W.  THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHE LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE STRENGTHENING...WHICH ALONG WITH\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION WOULD ARGUE AGAINST AN IMMEDIATE TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH.  HOWEVER...THE AGREEMENT OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS IS HARD\r\nTO ARGUE WITH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS THUS A COMPROMISE...CALLING\r\nFOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM 12-24 HR FOLLOWED\r\nBY A NORTHERLY TURN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nIT IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nSHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER CHRISTINA...AND FAIR OUTFLOW HAS DEVELOPED\r\nEXCEPT TO THE NORTH WHERE IT IS STILL POOR.  CONDITIONS ARE THUS\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF THE STORM CAN GET ITS ACT TOGETHER\r\nINTERNALLY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THIS WILL HAPPEN AND\r\nCALLS FOR CHRISTINA TO STRENGTHEN FOR 48 HR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATER AND BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  ONE\r\nLAST BIT OF MESSINESS IS THAT IF CHRISTINA DOES NOT TURN NORTHWARD\r\nAS SHARPLY AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER WARMER WATER FURTHER\r\nAWAY FROM THE TROUGH...AND LIKELY BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 14.1N 115.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.3N 116.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 117.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 118.3W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N 118.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-07-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CRISTINA IN A BETTER LIGHT THAN\r\nIR IMAGERY DID DURING THE NIGHT.  WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR\r\nUNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...THE CIRCULATION IS SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RAGGED.\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS NOT EXPOSED...THE INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED\r\nTO 40 KT TO BETTER FIT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AFWA...\r\nAND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGN OF ANY NORTHWARD TURN YET AS THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 270/11.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT INTO TWO MAJOR CLUSTERS.\r\nTHE FIRST...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...INCLUDES\r\nTHE BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND CLIPER.  THE SECOND...CALLING FOR A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN...INCLUDES THE AVN...UKMET...NOGAPS...\r\nGFDL...GUNS...AND GUNA.  THREE MODELS ARE OUT ON THEIR OWN.  THE\r\nNHC91 CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE AVN\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN IS BETWEEN THE TWO MAJOR CLUSTERS...AND THE GFDN\r\nTURNS THE STORM DUE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES NEAR 25N120W...\r\nWHICH SHOULD KEEP THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE STRONG FOR THE TIME\r\nBEING.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA APPEARS TO BE\r\nRE-DEVELOPING WESTWARD AND RIDGING IS TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE\r\nMEXICAN MAINLAND COAST.  THESE DEVELOPMENTS MAY BE WHAT STARTS\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  GIVEN THESE SIGNS...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SUCH A TURN STARTING IN 12-24 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER CRISTINA IS AT LEAST SOMEWHAT\r\nFAVORABLE...BUT THE CYCLONE IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED ENOUGH AT THE\r\nMOMENT TO RESPOND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE\r\nSCENARIO THAT A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LET CRISTINA ORGANIZE\r\nAND STRENGTHEN THROUGH 48 HR.  IT THEN HITS COLDER WATER AND AN\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  SHOULD CRISTINA NOT MAKE THE\r\nTURN...IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER THROUGH 72 HR BUT STILL\r\nENCOUNTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  EITHER WAY...SOME WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD OCCUR AFTER 48 HR.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 14.1N 116.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 118.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.6N 119.3W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-07-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 12 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA CONTINUES TO BE DISRUPTED \r\nAND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED. \r\nMOST OF THE WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF \r\nTHE STORM. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AT \r\nBEST. CRISTINA HAS NOT RESPONDED SO FAR TO THE APPARENT LIGHT SHEAR \r\nAND WARM OCEAN AND WE ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE STRENGTHENING \r\nINDICATED IN PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\nONCE AGAIN...CRISTINA HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT \r\nDAY OR TWO BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO FORCE CRISTINA \r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF \r\nTHE SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS AND DERIVATIVES PREDICT THAT \r\nCRISTINA WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS \r\nIN THE RIDGE.  ONLY CLIMATOLOGY KEEPS THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY \r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS..CRISTINA IS EXPECETED TO BE WEAKENING OVER COOL \r\nWATERS MOVING WESTWARD AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 14.0N 116.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N 117.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.0N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-07-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 06Z WERE UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS VALUES.\r\nHOWEVER...SSMI OVERPASSES AT 0334Z AND 0511Z SHOWED SOME RELATIVELY\r\nTIGHT BANDING SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND IN THE\r\nPAST HOUR OR TWO THE APPEARANCE OF CRISTINA ON INFRARED IMAGERY HAS\r\nIMPROVED AS WELL...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nFOR THE FIRST TIME...AND AN OVERALL INCREASE IN BANDING STRUCTURE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 45 KT...AND THE LONG-\r\nAWAITED STRENGTHENING MAY NOW BE OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...CRISTINA HAS\r\nLESS THAN 36 HOURS OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF IT.\r\n\r\nCRISTINA EDGED MOSTLY NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT \r\nTHIS MAY BE REORGANIZATION AS MUCH AS TRUE MOTION.  THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/4 FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE GUIDANCE \r\nREMAINS SPLIT...WITH THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING A MOSTLY \r\nNORTHWARD TRACK...AND THE AVN AND BAMS A WNW TRACK.  THE AVN \r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW AN INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH LOBES OF \r\nVORTICITY IN ITS NEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND I NOTE THAT 24 HOURS AGO THE \r\nAVN WAS FORECASTING A SIMILAR BUT NORTHWARD JOG FOR THIS TIME THAT \r\nAPPEARS TO BE VERIFYING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING \r\nDEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART \r\nSOME SOUTHERLY STEERING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH LIES CLOSER \r\nTO THE AVN THAN TO THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CLUSTER...IS SHIFTED A BIT \r\nNORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT MOTION/RELOCATION...BUT IS \r\nOTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 14.6N 116.2W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 116.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-07-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002\r\n\r\nWHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF CHRISTINA HAS IMPROVED SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY.  THE CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON AN OVERALL BANDING\r\nPATTERN...AND COLD TOPS CONTINUE JUST EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR NOW.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/3.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N112W...\r\nWITH A TROUGH NOW DEVELOPING TO NEAR 14N124W AS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE TROUGH.  GUIDANCE...WHILE STILL RATHER SPREAD...IS IN\r\nBETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY.  MANY MODELS...INCLUDING\r\nTHE AVN WHICH HAS SHIFTED ITS FORECAST WESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY...\r\nCALL FOR A NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nIS STILL A CLUSTER CALLING FOR A NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THAT INCLUDES THE UKMET...GFDL...NHC91...GUNS...AND GUNA.  \r\nADDITIONALLY...THE NOGAPS AND GFDN TAKE CRISTINA EAST OF NORTH.\r\nSINCE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A NORTHWARD TURN...THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MORE WESTERLY MODELS AND IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nWHILE CRISTINA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE DEVELOPING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STARTING TO SLOW THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE.\r\nADDITIONALLY...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER COLDER WATER\r\nAFTER 24 HR.  THUS...THE WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS CLOSING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED\r\nBY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER\r\nAND BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE TROUGH.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 14.8N 116.8W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.3N 117.5W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.3N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 119.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 120.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 123.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-07-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002\r\n \r\nCHRISTINA SHOWS A CLASSIC...BUT SOMEWHAT RAGGED...CURVED BAND\r\nPATTERN THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS NOT WRAPPED FURTHER AROUND THE\r\nCENTER SINCE THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...AFWA...AND SAB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nSYNOPTIC SITUATION OR FORECAST REASONING FROM THIS MORNING...WITH\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nAND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD WEST OF CRISTINA.  WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS AND GFDN CONTINUE AS MAJOR OUTLIERS WITH NORTHWARD AND \r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE OTHER GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING GUIDANCE AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS IMPINGING ON CRISTINA OR AT LEAST\r\nRESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS LIGHT\r\nAT WORST AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  CHRISTINA\r\nTHUS STILL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MOVES OVER COLDER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 24 HR.  AFTER THAT IT SHOULD \r\nWEAKEN.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS WANT TO SPLIT THE TROUGH AFTER 36-48 HR...LEAVING CHRISTINA\r\nIN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...THE STORM\r\nMAY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 15.2N 117.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.8N 117.9W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.1N 118.9W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 119.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.4N 121.4W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 124.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-07-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 13 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA LOOKS GOOD TONIGHT.  THE\r\nCENTER IS CLOSE TO THE CONVECTION AND THERE IS A WELL DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS BECOMING ELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.\r\nT-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL 45 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BECOMING\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND COOL WATERS ARE ABOUT A\r\nDAY AWAY.  SO INTENSIFICATION...IF AT ALL...SHOULD OCCUR IN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nCRISTINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS THROUGH \r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST \r\nSHOULD BEGIN SOON WITH A TURN MORE TOWARD WEST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS \r\nTHE STORM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS \r\nTRACK HAS BEEN THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS DURING THE \r\nPAST FEW DAYS AND HAS BEEN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 16.1N 117.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.3N 119.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N 120.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 124.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-07-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SOME MIXED SIGNALS WITH REGARD TO THE STRUCTURE AND\r\nSTRENGTH OF CRISTINA.  THE DEPICTION ON IR IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND NOW RANGE FROM 45-55 KT.\r\nON THE OTHER HAND...MICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nCRISTINA IS SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0126Z\r\nSHOWED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 40 KT.  I WILL LEAVE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE WINDS\r\nHAVE COME UP FURTHER SINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  IN \r\nRESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH NEAR 120W...CRISTINA IS MOVING \r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE \r\nAVN FORECASTS THIS TROUGH TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT WESTWARD... \r\nWHICH...COUPLED WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE... \r\nSHOULD TURN CRISTINA BACK TO THE WNW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN...WHICH HAS BEEN THE BEST \r\nPERFORMING MODEL WITH THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CRISTINA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  LONGER TERM...WHILE THE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nTROUGH WOULD ABATE AFTER THE TROUGH CUTS OFF...BY THEN CRISTINA\r\nSHOULD BE OVER COOL ENOUGH WATER TO PRECLUDE REINTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT \r\nPASS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 16.5N 117.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 118.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 119.4W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 120.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 122.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-07-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER AND...THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY.  EARLIER SSMI AND\r\nTRMM MICROWAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION/PARTIAL EYE\r\nWAS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...INFRARED DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE TWO\r\nCENTERS ARE PERHAPS BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...55 KT...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN A LITTLE\r\nBELOW THE TAFB ESTIMATE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE WHEN\r\nA BETTER CENTER ESTIMATE CAN BE MADE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07.  CRISTINA APPEARS TO BE\r\nREMAINING ON TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS AND\r\nLBAR MODELS...THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PAST 24 HOURS OF OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACKS.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE\r\nWEST OF CRISTINA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LIFT THE SYSTEM STEADILY\r\nPOLEWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AND...THEREFORE...DECOUPLE FROM THE\r\nDEEP NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW AND BE FORCED MORE WESTWARD BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nAVN SOLUTION...GIVEN ITS OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH\r\nERRORS UNDER 100 NMI AT ALL TIME PERIODS.\r\n\r\nTHE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CRISTINA TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IS \r\nRAPIDLY CLOSING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO MUCH COOLER SSTS. IN \r\n24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB 23C SST WATER... \r\nWHICH SHOULD START A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL \r\nTHE POSSIBILITY THAT CRISTINA COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND \r\nDECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF THIS \r\nCYCLONE.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 17.1N 118.4W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N 119.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 19.3N 120.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.6N 121.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 123.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N 126.7W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY HAS BEEN ELIMINATED NOW THAT A FULLY \r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION HAS APPEARED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE \r\nWEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. NOW ONLY THE INTENSITY IS IN QUESTION! \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL INDICATE THAT CRISTINA HAS \r\nWEAKENED SINCE GOING THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE BURSTING PERIOD 6 HOURS \r\nAGO. I HAVE HELD THE INTENSITY UP JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 35 \r\nTO 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO THE TIGHT CURL SEEN IN \r\nTHE LOW-CLOUD BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES \r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST HAS WRAPPED INTO THE \r\nCENTER AND AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS HELPED TO \r\nERODE THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07.  OTHER THAN THE RE-ADJUSTMENT \r\nOF THE INITIAL POSITION A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST...CRISTINA \r\nREMAINS ON TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE REGIONAL AND \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS CALLS FOR A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY WEAKENS AND \r\nGETS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND THE AVN 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nCRISTINA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...UNLESS \r\nDEEP CONVECTION REFORMS OVER THE CENTER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RAPID \r\nWEAKENING AND PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS THE \r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS \r\nCLOSE TO SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 17.3N 118.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.2N 118.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 120.1W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 121.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.6N 123.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.6N 127.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 14 2002\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA HAS PRACTICALLY \r\nDISAPPEARED.  LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL \r\nHAD A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE IS 45 KT...WITH THE LACK OF CONVECTION WINDS OF THIS \r\nSTRENGTH MAY NOT BE REACHING THE SURFACE.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY \r\nCROSSING OVER A SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO \r\nWEAKEN DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN \r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  HOWEVER AS THE CYCLONE IS REDUCED TO A \r\nSHALLOW CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IT IS LIKELY TO BE \r\nDOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO \r\nWESTWARD.  THE TRACK ON THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 17.8N 118.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.6N 118.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.2N 120.1W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N 121.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.7N 123.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.7N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-07-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n \r\nCHRISTINA IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO CONVECTION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED ON DVORAK RULES...ARE NOW 45\r\nKT...35 KT...AND 30 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO LOCATE...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN MULTISPECTRAL\r\nIR IMAGERY THAT IT MAY BE MOVING FASTER.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nTHAT THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO\r\nAND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM AND BAMS.\r\n\r\nCHRISTINA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 18.3N 119.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N 119.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.1N 121.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 123.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n \r\nCHRISTINA REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO DEEP \r\nCONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 35 KT OR \r\nLESS. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT \r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAKES CRISTINA A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. CRISTINA IS MOVING OVER MUCH \r\nCOOLER WATER SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. AS SUCH...THE \r\nPRIMARY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WITHIN 24 \r\nHOURS...UNLESS NEW CONVECTION REDEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE LATTER \r\nSCENARIO SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE COOLER SSTS \r\nAND THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM \r\nAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS WERE \r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSINCE CHRISTINA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER... THE \r\nCURRENT RAPID WEAKENING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 19.1N 119.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.1N 121.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 123.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.2N 125.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-07-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n \r\nWHILE CRISTINA IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...IT STILL REMAINS \r\nAN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION. A 15/1352Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED 25 \r\nTO 30 KT WINDS...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE.  ALSO...A COUPLE OF \r\nEXPERIMENTAL AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TODAY INDICATE THE \r\nSURFACE PRESSURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...FURTHER SUGGESTING THAT THE \r\nWARM-CORE STRUCTURE AND LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ARE PROBABLY NOT \r\nDECREASING THAT QUICKLY. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 30 KT \r\nWAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. \r\nCRISTINA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE WEAKENING \r\nCIRCULATION GETS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. MOST OF \r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS TREND AND THE AVN AND UKMET \r\nMODELS EVEN TAKE THE DISSIPATING CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 \r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE AVN SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFOR SUCH A PRETTY NAME...CRISTINA HAS BEEN AN UGLY STORM...AT LEAST \r\nAS FAR AS INTENSITY FORECASTING GOES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS \r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SUB-23C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...RAPID \r\nWEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SEEMS TO BE A SURE BET...FINALLY!\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 19.4N 120.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 121.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N 123.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.6N 128.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":27,"Date":"2002-07-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 15 2002\r\n\r\nCRISTINA CONSISTS...MAINLY...OF A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  \r\nHOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT \r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN \r\nDOWN AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS \r\nOR LESS.\r\n\r\nFORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT...TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS \r\nLIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS AS IT \r\nDISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND...IN \r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...JUST NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\nTHIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 19.6N 120.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 121.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N 124.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N 126.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":28,"Date":"2002-07-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 16 2002\r\n \r\nCRISTINA REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nLATEST QUIKSCAT STILL SHOWS A 20-25 KT CIRCULATION WITH THE \r\nSTRONGEST WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE \r\nTOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW \r\nAND BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 \r\nHOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 19.8N 121.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N 124.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":29,"Date":"2002-07-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 16 2002\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CRISTINA \r\nIS STILL AN IMPRESSIVE CIRCULATION...EVEN THOUGH IT IS DEVOID OF ANY \r\nDEEP CONVECTION. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED A 20-25 KT CIRCULATION \r\nAND THIS INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL \r\nWESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL \r\nEASTERLY FLOW. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER \r\nSUB-23C SST WATER...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE NEXT \r\nADVISORY AT 2100Z WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER TERRY/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 19.7N 122.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.8N 124.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":30,"Date":"2002-07-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 16 2002\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY INDICATES CRISTINA HAS A RATHER\r\nWELL DEFINED CIRCULATION..BUT ALSO CONTINUES TO BE DEVIOD OF ANY \r\nCONVECTION.  EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED A 20-25 KT CIRCULATION AND \r\nTHIS INTENSITY WAS MAINTAINED AGAIN FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL \r\nWESTERLY DIRECTION..UNDER THE STRONG..SPRAWLING AND EAST-WEST \r\nORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC.  SINCE \r\nTHIS MOTION WOULD TAKE THE DEPRESSION INTO SUB-23C SST \r\nWATER..CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE \r\nCENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER TERRY\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 20.0N 123.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N 124.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 126.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH\r\nSOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS\r\nNOW CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E...VERY NEAR TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH\r\nTHE AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES BUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME.  AS MOST OF THE\r\nSYSTEMS IN THE EPAC THIS YEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...CAUSING THE OUTFLOW TO BE RESTRICTED.  THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO...A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR COOL WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD EXPANSION OF\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 13.3N 107.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 14.0N 109.0W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z 15.5N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N 118.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...40...AND 30 KNOTS \r\nRESPECTIVELY FROM SAB...TAFB..AND AFGWC.  A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED \r\nLOTS OF RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KNOT SURFACE WINDS SOUTH AND WEST OF \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER.  AN AMSU ESTIMATE OF 47 KNOTS WAS ALSO \r\nRECEIVED.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM ON \r\nTHE BASIS OF THE ABOVE DATA.  THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE \r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nCONTINUES.  THE GUIDANCE IS MIXED WITH THE GFDL SHOWING DISSIPATION \r\nIN 12 HOURS AND SHIFOR REACHING NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FORECAST TO \r\n60 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII ARE LARGER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BASED ON THE \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SYMMETRIC IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6.  GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEAK \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DOUGLAS AND A MOSTLY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD \r\nMOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLOWER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/2100Z 13.7N 107.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.0N 108.0W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N 109.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.1N 110.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 20 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nCENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT APPEARS TO BE BETTER EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF DOUGLAS IN\r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY WAS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN EARLIER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC\r\nARE 45...45...AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL \r\nQUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/7...TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER\r\nTRACK...AND A HOT-OFF-THE-PRESS SSMI PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TRACK\r\nMIGHT BE EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN THIS ADVISORY INDICATES.  OVER\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS...A TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE HAS SWUNG AROUND\r\nDOUGLAS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...THERE MAY BE SOME INTERACTION OR MUTUAL ROTATION OF THESE TWO\r\nSYSTEMS.  NEARLY ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS A WNW OR NW TRACK IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...WITH A BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 OR 36 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD FROM\r\nBAJA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP DOUGLAS ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE AVN...AND IS ALSO TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE GFDL IS IN LOVE WITH DOUGLAS...BRINGING IT TO 111 KT IN TWO DAYS \r\nTIME.  THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL IS ALSO BULLISH...TAKING DOUGLAS \r\nUP TO 80 KT...WHILE THE AVN IS A BEAR...SHOWING ESSENTIALLY NO \r\nCHANGE.  THESE MODELS DID SIMILAR THINGS WITH CRISTINA...WHICH DID \r\nNOT INTENSIFY MUCH.  HOWEVER...DOUGLAS SEEMS TO BE BETTER ORGANIZED \r\nINTERNALLY THAN CRISTINA WAS AT THIS STAGE...AND SO I AM INCLINED TO \r\nFAVOR SHIPS.  THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND THE WATER IS WARM.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT \r\nIS STILL A BIT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 14.5N 107.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.3N 108.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.2N 109.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.7N 111.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-07-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 21 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF THE TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  HOWEVER...TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT IS NOT AS\r\nDRASTIC AS THE MICROWAVE DATA WOULD SUGGEST.  INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 325/8...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IT MAY HAVE\r\nBEEN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  AS NOTED EARLIER...DOUGLAS\r\nHAS APPARENTLY BEEN INTERACTING WITH A DISTURBANCE WHICH WAS\r\nROTATING AROUND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STORM CIRCULATION.  THIS\r\nDISTURBANCE IS BECOMING INDISTINCT AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF DOUGLAS.  LATER TODAY...THE HEADING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS DOUGLAS BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE\r\nBROADER-SCALE FLOW.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO A MODEST\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nOVERALL THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE \r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER \r\nSOUTH AND FASTER.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE IS A GOOD \r\nBANDING FEATURE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL-LIKE \r\nFEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO \r\nBE RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST BUT IS IMPRESSIVE IN THE OTHER \r\nQUADRANTS.  DATA T NUMBERS ARE NEAR 3.5...HOWEVER FINAL T-NUMBERS \r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT 3.0.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. \r\nAS DISCUSSED PREVIOUSLY...THE GFDL MODEL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE ON \r\nINTENSIFICATION AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER 100 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS.  \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS STRENGTHENING...BUT ONLY TO ABOUT 75 \r\nKT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS BUT STRENGTHENS \r\nDOUGLAS A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY BASED ON THE CURRENT ORGANIZING TREND. \r\nDOUGLAS IS LIKELY TO BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER SSTS...AND THEREFORE BE \r\nON A WEAKENING TREND...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 15.4N 107.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N 108.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 110.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-07-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 21 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/9.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nUNANIMOUSLY TURN AND MOVE THE STORM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\nA RATHER COLD CDO AND BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN ON GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB... \r\nAND KGWC.  THE INITIAL OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. \r\n THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MIXED.  THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED FOR 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS \r\nTHE WIND SPEED TO 76 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND \r\nWARM ENOUGH SSTS.  THE GFDL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH 97 KNOTS IN \r\n42 HOURS.  SSTS SHOULD START GETTING COOLER BY 72 HOURS ON THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 16.4N 108.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 112.8W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.7N 114.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-07-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 21 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nUNANIMOUSLY SHOW A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE.\r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE IMPRESSIVE AND THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 65 \r\nKNOTS WHILE SAB AND KGWC ARE 55 KNOTS.  LATEST QUIKSCAT AND SSMI \r\nSUGGEST THAT DOUGLAS IS NOT A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND \r\nSPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS.  THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL BRINGS THE WIND \r\nTO 104 KNOTS WHILE SHIPS HIGHEST WIND IS 77 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT.  THE FGS...UKMET... \r\nAND SHIPS MODEL FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nWIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED A LITTLE IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...THEN FORECAST TO BECOME SYMMETRIC IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 16.8N 109.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 111.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N 112.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.8N 114.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 116.1W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-07-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 21 2002\r\n\r\nDOUGLAS HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A HURRICANE \r\nBASED ON CONSENSUS 65 KT...T4.0...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS \r\nIMPRESSIVE AND REMAINS UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  DOUGLAS REMAINS ON TRACK AND \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... \r\nALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS. ALL AVAILABLE NHC FORECAST \r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN \r\nDUE WEST OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE \r\nRAPIDLY WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE \r\nBEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN \r\nSLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nGFDL...AVN...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS FOR TRACK AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS \r\nTHE AVN AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS FOR THE SPEED.\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS \r\nUSUALLY LASTS ABOUT 36 TO 42 HOURS. AS SUCH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nCALLS FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS \r\nWITH A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER THAT THROUGH 24 HOURS... \r\nWHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SMALL 10 TO 15 NM DIAMETER EYE SEEN \r\nIN THE LOW-...MID-...AND UPPER-LEVELS ON A 21/1951Z TRMM OVERPASS. \r\nBY 36 HOURS...DOUGLAS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND \r\nSTART TO WEAKEN. BETWEEN 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE \r\nPASSING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IF \r\nDOUGLAS SLOWS OR TURNS MORE WESTWARD SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS INDICATING...THEN THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A MAJOR \r\nHURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH BRINGS DOUGLAS TO 84 KT AND 87 KT IN 24 \r\nAND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL \r\nMODEL DURING LOW- OR NO-SHEAR CONDITIONS LIKE DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO \r\nREMAIN EMBEDDED IN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nWIND SPEED RADII AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON \r\nSURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS AT 21Z AND 00Z.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 17.1N 110.7W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 111.9W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 17.8N 113.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.1N 115.4W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 117.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-07-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY.  THE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING \r\nEPISODE OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS HAS COINCIDED WITH A LEFT\r\nTURN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AN EVENT WHICH HAS BEEN OBSERVED MANY\r\nTIMES IN THE PAST.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SYMMETRIC SYSTEM\r\nAND THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFGWC.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A WEAK\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...ORDER 5 KT...ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SO THE MAIN FACTOR FOR DOUGLAS' FUTURE INTENSITY SHOULD BE\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS SHOULD NOT BE\r\nENCOUNTERED UNTIL 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE\r\nWEAKENING IN THE LATTER PART THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH I THINK KEEPS DOUGLAS TOO STRONG FOR SUB 25 DEG C\r\nWATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/8.  THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  DOUGLAS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST HEADING BY THE\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA...GFDL/U.K.\r\nMET/NOGAPS/AVN...CONSENSUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 17.3N 111.5W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N 112.7W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N 114.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 116.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 118.7W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-07-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 22 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8 OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AND THE \r\nPAST 12 HOUR MOTION IS 280/8.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY \r\nCLUSTERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO AND \r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KN0TS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.  \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 101 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL TREND AND BRINGS THE \r\nWIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  COLDER SSTS SHOULD BE \r\nENCOUNTERED NY DOUGLASS WITHIN 36-48 HOURS RESULTING IN WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 17.3N 112.5W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.7N 113.8W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.2N 115.8W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-07-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 90 KN0TS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND OTHERS SHOW THE WIND SPEED PEAKING IN THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL TREND AND BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS IN 12 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS COLDER SSTS ARE FORECAST TO BE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIP UGTY REPORTED 40 KNOTS AT 18Z ABOUT 210 N MI EAST-SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER AND THE 34-KNOT WIND SPEED RADIUS WAS ADJUSTED TO THIS\r\nREPORT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 17.3N 113.2W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 114.7W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 116.9W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.2N 119.5W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.7N 122.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-07-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 22 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS TO\r\n-80C THIS EVENING.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 22/1712Z SHOWED A SMALL\r\nEYE...WHICH HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE/IR IMAGERY SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CURRENTLY SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 90 KT.  THUS...90 KT REMAINS THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE DOUGLAS IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nAROUND SUCH A MOTION...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS\r\nBEING THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT\r\nA TOUCH SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nDOUGLAS IS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN LOW FOR 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED THE EDGE OF\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKE IT\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER.  DOUGLAS SHOULD BEGIN STEADILY\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 12-24 HR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. \r\nALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THERE\r\nIS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE\r\nTONIGHT WHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 17.4N 113.8W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.7N 115.2W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.3N 120.0W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.9N 122.6W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT IN RECENT IMAGERY...AND THE IR DATA\r\nALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT...CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 90 KT.  SINCE DOUGLAS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TRAVERSE INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GIVEN THE LOW SST WHICH THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE OVER BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...275/7.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DOUGLAS.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS ...\r\nFORECASTS A BUILDING OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT NOT AS FAST AS SHOWN BY THE LATEST GFS\r\nRUN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 17.4N 114.4W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 17.9N 115.9W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.6N 118.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.4N 120.8W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 20.5N 128.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE COULD PATTERN CONTINUES WELL ORGANIZED BUT THE CONVECTION IS\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS IS TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC AS IT APPROACHES COOLER WATER AND STABLE AIR. \r\nBECAUSE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST WINDS TO NEAR 85 KNOTS...THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 ABOUT 10 KNOTS...\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS \r\nANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. THE \r\nCYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS \r\nTHE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 17.8N 115.2W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 116.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.2N 119.5W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N 122.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 126.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS THE HURRICANE \r\nAPPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR AND A COOLER OCEAN.  BECAUSE T-NUMBERS \r\nARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED \r\nTO 80 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DOUGLAS COULD BE A \r\nDISSIPATING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 12 KNOTS...AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nINDICATED BY GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 18.4N 116.3W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS GOING THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE THIS EVENING. \r\nTHE DOMINANT OUTER EYEWALL INDICATED IN AMSU/TRMM DATA WAS ABOUT 75\r\nNM WIDE EARLIER TODAY...WHILE THE RAGGED OPEN REMAINS OF THE INNER\r\nEYEWALL STILL GENERATES A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN 77 KT...77 KT...AND\r\n90 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 80 KT.  TH\r\nHURRICANE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.\r\nHOWEVER... IT IS MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND THUS\r\nSHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  DOUGLAS IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATING\r\nTHIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD\r\nMOVE DOUGLAS ALONG A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN AFTER 24 HR.  THIS IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 19.0N 117.8W    80 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 19.6N 119.9W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 125.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 133.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS MAINTAINS A REMNANT OF ITS INNER EYEWALL.  SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT...BASED \r\nON THE T NUMBER...FROM KGWC.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN REMAINS GOOD AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...DOUGLAS IS MOVING TOWARD \r\nCOLDER WATER AND SO THE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THERE IS \r\nNO CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A TURN TO THE \r\nWEST AT AN INCREASED SPEED EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND \r\nCLOSE TO THE AVN.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 19.7N 119.1W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 121.2W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.1N 124.6W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 21.3N 128.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 21.5N 139.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Douglas","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE A\r\nWELL DEFINED AND TIGHT CIRCULATION.  T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE\r\nAND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS.  DOUGLAS IS RUNNING OUT OF\r\nFUEL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS.  IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT \r\n14 KNOTS. A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD \r\nSPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME A \r\nREMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 20.3N 120.6W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 123.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.0N 126.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 130.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 142.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...TYPICAL OF AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FORMER HURRICANE \r\nMOVING OVER COOL WATERS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 \r\nKNOTS AND DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A WEAK LOW OR A TROUGH IN 36 \r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING 285 DEGREES ABOUT 14 KNOTS. A TURN \r\nMORE TO WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 20.7N 122.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N 124.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N 128.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 142.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n \r\nSOME CONVECTION RETURNED TO DOUGLAS THIS EVENING...INDEED JUST\r\nENOUGH TO KEEP SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA AT 55 KT.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THIS.\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS ALREADY FADING AWAY...STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS\r\nARE WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STORM...AND THE UNDERLYING\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS 22C.  IT IS THUS EXPECTED THAT DOUGLAS\r\nWILL RESUME WEAKENING AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 36-48 HR.\r\n\r\nDOUGLAS HAS TURNED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 275/17.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 20.8N 124.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 21.0N 127.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 130.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 133.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N 137.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS OVER 22C WATER...AND THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION IS \r\nDISSIPATING.  DVORAK T NUMBER INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO \r\n45 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY.  WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BASED ON THE LAST TWO QUIKSCAT \r\nPASSES.\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS MOVING AT 275/19.  STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO THE NORTH\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.  \r\nGIVEN THE RAPID MOTION OF THE CYCLONE...IT MAY LOSE ITS CLOSED \r\nCIRCULATION FAIRLY QUICKLY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 21.0N 126.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.1N 129.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 133.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF \r\nCONVECTION AND 35 KNOT WINDS. THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST \r\nABOUT 17 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL \r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 21.0N 128.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 131.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 135.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N 138.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS A WESTWARD MOVING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT \r\nSHOWERS. DOUGLAS IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 20.5N 130.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 133.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z  DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS COMPRISED OF A CONVECTION-LESS SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nCLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  AN UPCOMING\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOULD HELP BETTER DETERMINE THE ACTUAL SURFACE\r\nWINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 21.0N 132.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 134.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N 138.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS BARELY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN  \r\nANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS...AND AN ANALYSIS OF RECENT \r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY VECTORS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY A VERY \r\nSMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE QUIKSCAT ALSO \r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 30 KT...I WILL HANG ON TO \r\nDOUGLAS FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/19.  DOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON \r\nROUGHLY THIS TRACK UNTIL THE CIRCULATION OPENS UP TO A WAVE...WHICH \r\nMAY WELL OCCUR EARLIER THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 21.3N 134.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 21.5N 137.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.5N 140.6W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-07-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 19\r\nKNOTS.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL THE\r\nCIRCULATION OPENS UP TO A WAVE OR DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 21.6N 136.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 139.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED \r\nAND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IS NOW A TROPICAL \r\nDEPRESSION....ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE SYSTEM \r\nIS LARGE WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS AND WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS \r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOUR OR LESS. THIS IS \r\nCONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND SHIFOR AND THE INTENSITY TREND \r\nSUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.  \r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH THE LIMITED VISIBLE \r\nIMAGES WHILE QUIKSCAT IS SHOWING AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. THE BEST \r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12 BUT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AT \r\nTHIS TIME.  THE SAME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF \r\nDOUGLAS IS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. BECAUSE THE \r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE \r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN \r\nANTICIPATED.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 11.6N  98.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 11.8N 100.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.5N 103.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.0N 109.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 115.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS \r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND SIX-E IS NOW TROPICAL STORM \r\nELIDA. IT HAS NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST \r\nWITH GOOD OUTFLOW. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0 FROM ALL \r\nAGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS.  \r\nSUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WITH THE INTENSIFICATION \r\nRATE...ELIDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY. \r\n\r\nELIDA APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS BUT THIS SPEED \r\nMAY BE ATTRIBUTED TO ORGANIZATION AND NOT TO REAL MOTION.  A HIGH \r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF ELIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS TO PERSIST AND EXPAND. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A \r\nCONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD \r\nSPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE WHICH IS REALLY CLUSTERED.  THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ELIDA \r\nAWAY FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 12.3N 101.3W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.5N 103.8W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 106.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.5N 108.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.0N 111.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 23 2002\r\n\r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CLASSICAL\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST/OUTER BAND PATTERN AND CENTRAL CONVECTIVE\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 24/0037 UTC SHOWED\r\nA BANDING EYE FORMING UNDER THE OVERCAST....AND THE LATEST INFRARED\r\nIMAGE SHOWS A POSSIBLE EYEWALL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CDO.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 55 KT...AND THAT\r\nWILL BE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/17.  ELIDA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nOR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN\r\nWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FORECASTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SOUTH OF AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND\r\nMORE-OR-LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS GOOD/EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND THERE IS\r\nNO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE CURRENT FASTER THAN NORMAL DEVELOPMENT \r\nSHOULD NOT CONTINUE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ELIDA TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 HR AND THEN PEAK IN 48-72 HR IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT ELIDA COULD STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY MORE THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT STAYS ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AWAY\r\nFROM COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\n34 KT WIND AND 12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN GREATLY EXPANDED IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON A REPORT OF 36 KT AND 15 FT FROM SHIP\r\nH9LA LOCATED ABOUT 200 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER.  AFTER CONSULTATION\r\nWITH THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER THIS REPORT WAS DEEMED TO BE OF\r\nGOOD QUALITY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 12.2N 103.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.5N 105.1W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N 107.7W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 13.5N 110.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 13.9N 112.7W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n \r\nFROM 30 KT TO 95 KT IN 18 HOURS...AND UP FROM 55 KT IN JUST 6 \r\nHOURS...NOW THAT IS RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL \r\nHOURS...ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED A CLASSICAL PINHOLE EYE ON INFRARED \r\nIMAGERY...AND LOOKS BETTER WITH EVERY NEW IMAGE.  AT 0630Z KGWC GAVE \r\nELIDA A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T5.0...OR 90 KT. THROWING OUT THE \r\nDVORAK CONSTRAINTS...A MORE RECENT ESTIMATE FROM TAFB WAS T6.0...OR \r\n115 KT.  SINCE WITH RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS THE SATELLITE \r\nSIGNATURE CAN LEAD THE WINDS...I HAVE...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY... \r\nRAISED THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY TO 95 KT.  I CERTAINLY WOULD LOVE TO \r\nHAVE HAD AN AIRPLANE OUT THERE TO VERIFY THESE NUMBERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE \r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ELIDA IS SOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID \r\nLEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nTRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK FORECAST SIMPLY \r\nUPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nIF CLIMATOLOGY HOLDS...THE RAPID STRENGTHENING PERIOD SHOULD SOON \r\nEND.  WHILE OSCILLATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF MAJOR HURRICANES ARE \r\nCOMMON...ELIDA HAS AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH \r\nGENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 12.4N 104.4W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.6N 106.7W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 12.8N 109.3W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 13.0N 111.8W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N 119.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n\r\nELIDA HAS BROKEN ALL THE DVORAK RULES. IT HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY \r\nSINCE YESTERDAY AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.0 PLUS WITH OBJECTIVE \r\nNUMBERS REACHING 6.5 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE SHEAR IS LOW \r\nAND THE OCEAN IS WARM THUS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. \r\nHOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION AT THIS STAGE GOES BEYOND THE LARGE SCALE \r\nENVIRONMENT AND IS MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL \r\nTHERMODYNAMICS. A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON \r\nSCALE IS RARELY FORECAST BUT WITH THE OBSERVED TREND AND THE CURRENT \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 140 KNOTS \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ALSO \r\nPOSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 157 \r\nKNOTS IN 24 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nELIDA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A \r\nWELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO \r\nPERSIST AND IT WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK \r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY \r\nTHEREAFTER AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE \r\nRIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 12.8N 105.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 12.9N 108.0W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.0N 110.0W   140 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 13.0N 112.5W   140 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 13.5N 115.5W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 120.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING.  ELIDA HAS AN ESTIMATED 10\r\nNMI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...I DO NOT HAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO MEASURE THE\r\nEXACT EYE DIAMETER AND THE MAX WIND RADII.  ELIDA HAS ALSO WELL\r\nDEFINED BANDING FEATURES...WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW AND OBJECTIVE T-\r\nNUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 AND 6.5 DURING THE 6 TO 8 HOURS.\r\nTHIS CORRESPONDS TO WINDS OF AT LEAST 125 KNOTS.  FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND WILL PROBABLY BE ASSOCIATED WITH \r\nEYEWALL THERMODYNAMICS BUT MOST LIKELY WE WILL SEE FLUCTUATIONS IN \r\nINTENSITY.  SHIPS MODEL BRINGS ELIDA TO 157 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS BUT \r\nTHIS VALUE IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD PERSISTENCE.  \r\n\r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE \r\nPERIPHERY OF A WELL ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN IS \r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST AND IT WOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL \r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN \r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 13.3N 107.3W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.4N 109.3W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.5N 111.5W   140 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W   140 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 14.5N 117.0W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 122.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2002\r\n\r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH A PINHOLE EYE EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES EXTENDING ALMOST ALL THE\r\nWAY AROUND THE CDO.  IR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TOPS AROUND THE EYE\r\nCONTINUE TO COOL.  THE EXACT INTENSITY IS A LITTLE SPECULATIVE. \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB ARE 127 KT WHILE TAFB AND AFWA\r\nINDICATE 115 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 130 KT.\r\nON ONE HAND...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE LEADING THE ACTUAL\r\nINTENSITY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS THAT\r\nHELD TAFB'S ESTIMATE TO 115 KT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SATELLITE\r\nVIEWING ANGLE IS SUCH THAT THE GOES-8 AND GOES-10 IMAGERY MAY NOT BE\r\nABLE TO SEE THE BOTTOM OF THE PINHOLE EYE...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO\r\nUNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY WHEN THE DVORAK IR EYE PATTERN IS\r\nUSED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 130 KT BASED ON THE\r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...THE CONTINUED COOLING OF THE EYEWALL\r\nTOPS...AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A WOBBLING 290/14.  THE HURRICANE IS ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nFOR 36-48 HR AND KEEP ELIDA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.\r\nAFTER 48 HR...MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE\r\nADJACENT PACIFIC MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT ELIDA COULD\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nWITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN TRACKING MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THE AVN...LBAR...AND THE BAM MODELS TRACKING\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE AVN.\r\n \r\nELIDA SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR EITHER FROM A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR MOVING OUT OF THE 28C-29C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES IT IS CURRENTLY OVER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nA FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SO WEAKENING AFTER PEAK INTENSITY WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY\r\nAS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 14.0N 108.7W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 110.7W   140 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.2N 113.2W   140 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.9N 115.6W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W   125 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 123.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n \r\nWAS ELIDA A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...WHILE I DOUBT WE WILL STILL BE\r\nDEBATING THIS IN TEN YEARS...IT IS A GOOD QUESTION FOR TONIGHT.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS TOPPED OUT AT T6.5...OR 127 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS FROM GOES8 REACHED 6.9 OVER A\r\nTHREE-HOUR PERIOD FROM 0115 TO 0415Z...AND A CONCURRENT GOES10 RAW\r\nODT WAS A COUPLE TENTHS HIGHER.  SO THE INTENSITY OF ELIDA AT THE\r\nSYNOPTIC TIME COULD WELL HAVE BEEN 140 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE\r\nEYE TEMPERATURE HAS COOLED A BIT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND THE\r\nDVORAK NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN...SO THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 135 KT...WHICH IS JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER.\r\n\r\nA TROCHOIDAL MOTION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT...BUT THE OVERALL TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN 290/15.  THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR AND KEEP ELIDA ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  AFTER THAT...MID AND UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGHING OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE POINT THAT ELIDA COULD TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF ELIDA HAS PEAKED FOR THE MOMENT.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nSTILL A CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO COOL UNDER THE HURRICANE.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT YET INDICATE ANY OUTER EYEWALL\r\nFORMATION...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS PROCESS WILL HAVE TIME TO\r\nPRODUCE A SECOND PEAK BEFORE THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATER\r\nPREDOMINATE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE WEAKENING RATE\r\nSHOULD BE RELATIVELY SLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 14.4N 110.2W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 15.1N 112.3W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.7N 114.8W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 124.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n \r\nAFTER REACHING 140 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE BEGAN TO WEAKEN AND BOTH \r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS \r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 120 KNOTS.  THE EYE CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT AND \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE \r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BEEN WARMING FOR THE PAST FEW \r\nHOURS.  AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO \r\nCONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO WHICH COULD LEAD TO REINTENSIFICATION. \r\nHOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO \r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH TODAY.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS \r\nELIDA APPROACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 KNOTS \r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL TRACK \r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BY THEN...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE \r\nRIDGE.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nAS WELL AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE \r\nTO THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING EXTREMELY WELL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 14.9N 111.8W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 15.5N 114.0W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 116.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 124.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE DAY AND THE T-NUMBERS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS ABOUT 110 KNOTS. THE EYE HAS BEEN\r\nINTERMITTENT AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS GOOD. ELIDA\r\nSTILL HAS A DAY TO RESTRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...AS IT MOVES OVER WARM\r\nWATERS. THEREAFTER...THE CIRCULATION WILL REACH COOLER WATERS AND A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION AND ELIDA IS MOVING\r\n280/14 AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AS WELL AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 15.1N 113.3W   110 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 117.5W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.0N 119.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2002\r\n\r\nA TRMM OVERPASS AT 25/1748Z SHOWED THAT ELIDA HAD CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALLS.  CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT IS STILL THE CASE...AND THE INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED TO THE\r\nPOINT WHERE THE EYE HAS NOW DISAPPEARED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM AFWA AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED\r\nON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 105 KT.\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS TURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HR\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN EITHER THE TRACK GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL PACKAGES.  ELIDA SHOULD TRACK GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR 36-48 \r\nHR.  AFTER THAT TIME...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW ELIDA TO TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE THAT\r\nSHOULD DEVELOP THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OREGON AS FORECAST\r\nBY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH ADDS CONFIDENCE THAT THIS\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO WILL OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION...AND IT IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS FAIR OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.  AS THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKES IT OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...IF ELIDA\r\nCOMPLETES THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE REACHING THE COOLER\r\nWATER...IT COULD STAY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OR EVEN\r\nSOMEWHAT RE-INTENSIFY DUE TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 15.2N 114.4W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.6N 116.3W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 16.4N 118.6W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.1N 120.5W    80 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 122.4W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 105 KT.  RECENT MICROWAVE AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHAT WAS THE OUTER EYEWALL IS TRYING TO\r\nTIGHTEN UP A BIT.  THE UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO REMAINS\r\nIMPRESSIVE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 6Z WERE\r\n102 KT...WHILE RECENT OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS HAVE COME UP AND ARE IN\r\nTHE 105-110 KT RANGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  THE SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT DURING \r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS WAS NOT ANTICIPATED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  WATER \r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS MID-LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST OF ELIDA THAT MAY SLIGHTLY DELAY THE ANTICIPATED TURN TO \r\nTHE NORTHWEST...AND THE MOST RECENT AVN RUN HAS ALSO SHIFTED \r\nWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE AVN...WHICH IS NEAR \r\nTHE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...THE EYEWALL CYCLE WILL COUNTERACT GRADUALLY \r\nCOOLING SSTS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE \r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... \r\nTHE WATER WINS.  SHOULD ELIDA STAY FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED... \r\nHOWEVER...THE WEAKENING TREND WOULD BE DELAYED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 15.3N 115.6W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 117.4W   105 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 119.6W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N 121.7W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 124.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-07-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INTERMITTENT SMALL EYE AND THE POSSIBILITY \r\nOF AN OUTER EYEWALL FORMING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST \r\nWINDS OF 90 TO 100 KNOTS WHILE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY \r\nDECREASING. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 100 KNOTS AT THIS \r\nTIME. ALTHOUGH ELIDA MAY GO THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE \r\nWHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS \r\nAPPROACHING UNFAVORABLE COOL WATERS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY \r\nARE LIKELY TODAY BUT THE GENERAL FUTURE TREND OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE FOR WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT ELIDA HAS BEGUN THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/11.  ELIDA IS ALREADY APPROACHING THE \r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY \r\nMAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT \r\nFEW DAYS.  THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE \r\nNORTH OF ELIDA WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE NORTHWARD TURN. THIS IS \r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 15.8N 116.5W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 120.0W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 122.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.5N 128.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL EYE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED ON VISIBLE IMAGES HAS BEEN\r\nREPLACED BY A LARGE AND DIFFUSE EYE.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA WENT\r\nTHROUGH AN EYE WALL CYCLE. THE RING OF CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE IS\r\nNOW WEAKENING AND CONSEQUENTLY THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nGRADUALLY APPROACHING COOL WATERS...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nELIDA IS RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED AT ALL FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAND WITH THE HELP OF A TROUGH TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 16.3N 117.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.2N 119.2W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.3N 121.0W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 25.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2002\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 6 HR...LIKELY\r\nDUE TO CROSSING THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM.  THE EYE\r\nHAS DISAPPEARED AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nIN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n115 KT FROM AFWA AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE THE INTENSITY\r\nON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WAS 90 KT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE \r\nDECREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/11.  ELIDA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...A PORTION OF WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN\r\nDUE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL\r\nSPLIT THE RIDGE WITH ELIDA GRADUALLY TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nINTO THE TROUGH.  ALL GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER AGREES ON THIS \r\nSCENARIO...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST 18-24 HR.  SINCE\r\nNEITHER THE MOTION NOR THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED...THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ELIDA OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER...\r\nWITH THE CENTER REACHING 19C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 72 HR.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS NEAR DISSIPATION BY 72\r\nHR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ELIDA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEFORE 72 HR.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 16.7N 118.6W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.6N 120.2W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.7N 122.3W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.2N 124.3W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 22.1N 126.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS BEEN HOLDING ITS OWN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS \r\nIN TERMS OF CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE PATTERN HAS BECOME \r\nLESS SYMMETRIC.  THIS ASYMMETRY...ALONG WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY... \r\nSUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  ALL \r\nAGENCIES ARE CLASSIFYING ELIDA AT 4.0/5.0.  BASED ON THESE \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.\r\n\r\nWITH THE CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET TO 290/11...BUT IN TRUTH MAY \r\nBE EVEN A LITTLE LEFTWARD OF THAT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN \r\nUPPER LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA DIGGING SOUTHWARD.  ALL THE GUIDANCE \r\nRESPONDS BY TURNING ELIDA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER \r\nWITH THIS UPPER LOW...AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A SLOWER TRACK THAN THE \r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IN FACT...THE UKMET TURNS ELIDA BACK TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET HAS BEEN THE BEST \r\nPERFORMER WITH THIS CYCLONE SO FAR...SO THIS SCENARIO DESERVES \r\nCONSIDERATION.  GIVEN THIS...AS WELL AS THE CURRENT SHEARED \r\nSTRUCTURE OF ELIDA...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE \r\nSOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF \r\nTHE UKMET GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ELIDA OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER...\r\nWITH THE CENTER REACHING SUB-20C SSTS IN ABOUT 60 H.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING.  IF THE UKMET TRACK IS \r\nCORRECT...THEN ELIDA WOULD LIKELY HANG ON LONGER THAN INDICATED \r\nHERE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 17.0N 119.7W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 17.7N 121.2W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 18.9N 123.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 124.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 22.0N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 25.0N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ELIDA HAS A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE IS \r\nQUICKLY RUNNING OUT OF HIGH OCTANE FUEL AS IT MOVES OVER COOL \r\nWATERS.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING \r\nSEPARATED FROM THE REMAINING FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK \r\nT-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND WINDS ARE RANGING BETWEEN 55 AND \r\n75 KNOTS. DUE TO THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND CURRENT \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS.  \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND ONCE POWERFUL ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO BE \r\nJUST A WEAK LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE \r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH... \r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE \r\nAND A DEVELOPING TROUGH. IF ELIDA BECOMES A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS \r\nSOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT COULD INSTEAD MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY \r\nTRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 17.5N 120.8W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 124.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 127.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 26.0N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002\r\n \r\nNOTHING HAS CHANGED EXCEPT THAT ELIDA IS WEAKER WITH ESTIMATED WINDS \r\nOF 55 KNOTS. THIS IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nELIDA CONTINUES A VIGOROUS SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF \r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS \r\nAND SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN \r\nPREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD \r\nDISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 18.1N 122.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N 123.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 22.0N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 28.5N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 27 2002\r\n \r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER. \r\n THERE ARE A FEW OCCASSIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING AND \r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES AND TRENDS.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 48 \r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE \r\nSHOWS A TURN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT \r\n72 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVLE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 18.8N 122.8W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.8N 124.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.3N 125.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 23.3N 126.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 28.0N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002\r\n \r\nSOME MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER OF ELIDA\r\nSUGGESTING SOME RE-STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED. THIS IS INDICATED BY\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT ELIDA IS CONTINUING\r\nTO MOVE OVER 23C WATER...THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY\r\nLAYER IS LIKELY NOT ALLOWING THE STRONGER WINDS TO REACH THE\r\nSURFACE.  AS SUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS SYMMETRICAL AND UNRESTRICTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  ELIDA HAS MADE A SLIGHT\r\nWOBBLE TO THE LEFT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE CYCLONE HAS REMAINED\r\nON TRACK.  ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT CLIPER...CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW A TURN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD BY 48\r\nHOURS.  THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN\r\nSHOWING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA DIGGING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS\r\nTREND SHOULD CONTINUE GIVEN THE STRONG HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGING OVER\r\nTHE NORTH PACIFIC...AND THE DIGGING UPPER-LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND STEER ELIDA MORE NORTHWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT.  THIS IS\r\nALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST AVN AND NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND CONVECTION HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED AROUND THE CENTER...THE LATTER FEATURE SHOULD BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS ELIDA IS EXPECTED BE MOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS BY 24 \r\nHOURS AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN...OR EVEN DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 19.4N 123.7W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.4N 124.8W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.1N 126.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 126.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N 127.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 28.5N 127.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002\r\n\r\nIN SPITE OF THE COOL 22-23 DEG C SSTS...ELIDA HAS BEEN ABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO\r\nMAXIMUM WIND ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT.  EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS\r\nHOLDING ITS OWN AT THIS TIME...COOLER WATERS SHOULD TAKE THEIR TOLL\r\nON THE STORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND ELIDA IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nREDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS \r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A \r\nBLEND OF THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...BAMM AND BAMS.  BY THE END OF \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...SHALLOW-LAYER STEERING SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 20.2N 124.4W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 125.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.7N 126.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 24.5N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.5N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 29.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-07-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002\r\n\r\nELIDA HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN SO FAR TODAY.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN \r\nMAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER.  THIS \r\nIS SURPRISING SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING SURFACE WATER TEMPS OF \r\n21-22 DEG C.  PERHAPS THERE IS SOME COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT IS \r\nMAINTAINING INSTABILITY.  WHATEVER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY \r\nSPIN DOWN AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER IN THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ELIDA WEAKENING FASTER THAN \r\nINDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...310/11...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN \r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING \r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL \r\nRIDGE.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...CONTROL RUN AND \r\nTHE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 21.2N 125.4W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 22.3N 126.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 127.3W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 25.7N 127.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 27.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 30.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-07-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 28 2002\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER EVEN \r\nTHOUGH SSTS ARE NEAR 21 DEG C.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE \r\nFROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED \r\nTO 40 KNOTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO AS THE \r\nSYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COLDER WATER.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11.  ELIDA CONTINUES A GRADUAL \r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE \r\nGFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 21.8N 126.2W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 23.3N 127.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 25.1N 127.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 26.7N 128.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-07-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 29 2002\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER\r\nTHE PAST 6 HR...WITH ONLY A FEW THIN BANDS NOW PRESENT WELL\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  GIVEN THE WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  ELIDA IS NOW OVER 19C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 24 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/12.  ELIDA IS MOVING INTO A BREAK\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 32N129W.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 23.0N 126.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 24.6N 127.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 26.2N 127.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 27.8N 128.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 29.4N 128.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Elida","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-07-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 29 2002\r\n \r\nONLY A PATCH OR TWO OF FAIRLY COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAIN.  DVORAK \r\nESTIMATES INDICATE ELIDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...NOW DOWN TO A 30 KT \r\nDEPRESSION.  THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE \r\nFURTHER AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE HEADING HAS TURNED MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AND IS NOW 345/12. THIS \r\nTREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION...AND THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE \r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 24.7N 126.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 26.1N 127.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 27.6N 127.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 29.1N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 30.5N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Elida","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 29 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A DEGENERATING LOW AND MID LEVEL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN CENTERED ABOUT 35 NM TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  QUIKSCAT DATA FROM A LITTLE BEFORE 15 UTC IMPLIED WINDS\r\nOF 30 TO 35 KT AT THAT TIME.  30 KT IS THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nELIDA IS MOVING 345/12 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 25.4N 127.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 26.9N 128.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 29.3N 128.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 31.4N 128.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Elida","Adv":27,"Date":"2002-07-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 29 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  \r\nTAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE \"TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY\".  THERE IS \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER BUT TWO RECENT SHIPS \r\nNEAR THIS CONVECTION REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 15 TO 20 KNOTS.  \r\nTHE ADVISORY WIND SPEED FOR 03Z IS REDUCED TO 25 KNOTS.  THE \r\nDEPRESSION IS OVER SSTS LOWER THAN 20 DEG C AND THE REMNANT \r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. \r\n \r\nELIDA IS MOVING 345/12 KT AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nSHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT SOME 12-FT SEAS PERSIST AND EXTEND \r\nNORTHWARD 200 N MI FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 26.8N 128.1W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 28.6N 128.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 30.8N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 32.5N 129.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N 129.5W    DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE \r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A HINT OF A BAND DEVELOPING \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS \r\nAT 0137Z INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE \r\n1.5...2.0...AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  ON THIS BASIS ADVISORIES ARE \r\nINITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT \r\nMID AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.  MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS WITH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY TRACKS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING IS PRODUCING WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...SO\r\nONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  CURIOUSLY...THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL WANTS TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION TO 50 KT IN THE FACE OF NEARLY 30\r\nKT OF SHEAR.  AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE\r\nDECREASING...SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER TOO\r\nLONG.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 13.3N 120.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 13.8N 122.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.2N 123.8W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 125.6W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.1N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF T.D. SEVEN-E \r\nREMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE \r\nEXACT LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS INDICATED BY THE FAIRLY LARGE \r\nSPREAD IN FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE ADVISORY AND \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS ARE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC \r\nTRACK...AND FURTHER TRACK ADJUSTMENTS MAY HAVE TO BE MADE LATER \r\nTODAY WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS \r\n300/9...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK \r\nIN RESPONSE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION.  \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODELS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0...30 KNOTS...FROM TAFB \r\nAND SAB...AND 2.5...35 KNOTS...FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nWILL BE HELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE PREVIOUSLY \r\nMENTIONED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER \r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AND PREVENT \r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nSHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL 36 HOURS WHEN THE \r\nEFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN \r\nTHE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 14.2N 121.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.3N 122.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.1N 124.3W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N 126.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 133.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF T.D.  SEVEN-E\r\nEXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nEARLIER POSITIONS...CONFIRMING EARLIER SUSPICIONS.  RECENT SATELLITE\r\nFIXES ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MORE NORTHWARD CENTER\r\nPOSITION.  AFTER REVISING THE WORKING TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 310/11.  MODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO STAY ON\r\nA GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST.  BEYOND\r\n36 HOURS THE MODELS TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING INFLUENCE FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.\r\n\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST...THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KNOTS FOR \r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED UPPER- \r\nLEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS \r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  HOWEVER...THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SHOWS THAT THE SHEAR IS STILL \r\nSIGNIFICANT.  MOREOVER THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING THE 26C SEA \r\nSURFACE ISOTHERM.  THEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED \r\nFOR 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION AFTER 48 HOURS \r\nAS THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STRONGER SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 16.0N 122.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N 123.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 19.3N 125.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 127.8W    25 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N 130.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL DEFINED LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310/11 KT.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE \r\nAVN MODEL TURNS THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS \r\nAND THE MOTION IS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE AVN MODEL AND\r\nIS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT...30 KT...AND 35 KT\r\nFROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\nAT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nAND IS APPROACHING THE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM.  THEREFORE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER...ANY \r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT COULD \r\nALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  BY \r\n24 HOURS...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER \r\nWATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT \r\nLOW IN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 16.6N 123.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.6N 124.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N 127.1W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.2N 132.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N 136.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...ALTHOUGH A MICROWAVE PASS NEAR\r\n02Z SUGGESTS THAT IT REMAINS ON TRACK...AND WEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON CONTINUITY...IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE 310/11.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nTRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL GUIDANCE.  WITH \r\nSHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SYSTEM AND WATER TEMPERATURES \r\nDECREASING...A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN SHOULD BEGIN SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 17.4N 124.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.7N 125.8W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.2N 128.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N 134.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES PLACED THE CENTER OF THE\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMOST DUE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION...AND TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED\r\nON THIS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 330/11...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHORT TERM MOTION IS CLOSE TO DUE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nMODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT T.D. SEVEN IS BEING STEERED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND A\r\nBUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 12-24\r\nHOURS...CLOSE TO THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL...WITH A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AND IS\r\nSTREERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING INTO DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 18.6N 124.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.1N 124.9W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.7N 126.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 132.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N 138.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOWS UP QUITE WELL \r\nON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY...MOVING 325/12 WHICH IS THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS MOSTLY \r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL BE \r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 14Z SHOWED JUST A SPOT OR TWO OF 30 KT \r\nUNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SPUN DOWN \r\nA BIT SINCE THIS MORNING.  DEEP CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER \r\nHAS DECREASED IN SIZE DURING THE DAY...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE \r\nTHREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE AT 1.0-1.5...25 KNOTS.  THEREFORE...THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS.  COOLER WATERS AND \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL MEAN FURTHER WEAKENING AND THE DEPRESSION \r\nIS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 19.4N 125.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 126.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N 131.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N 134.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME\r\nDECOUPLED WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED WELL SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.  THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY IS 290/9.\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE.\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 19.3N 126.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 19.7N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N 129.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-08-21 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL \r\nDISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO \r\nMEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS \r\nDEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\n30 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS 25 KNOT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL \r\nTHREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AT 1200 UTC AND IMPROVED INNER-CORE BANDING \r\nFEATURES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD \r\nAND IMPROVING IN ALL QUADRANTS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF \r\nTHE MID-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF \r\nTHE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE \r\nSUGGESTS A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...\r\nNOGAPS...AVN/GFS...AND THE THREE BAM MODELS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS \r\nAND IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN \r\n72 HOURS. GIVEN SUCH WARM WATER AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...IT \r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN IS\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1700Z 12.8N 108.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.9N 109.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.0N 111.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 13.1N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 13.2N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 122.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL BANDING FEATURES NOTED\r\nAS WELL AS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB. THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED \r\nTO TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08...IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS \r\nSPECIAL ADVISORY.  FAUSTO IS SITUATED SOUTH OF THE MID-PACIFIC \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF\r\nTHE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE \r\nAVN/GFS...AND THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS....AND TO THE LEFT \r\nOF THE GFDL AND DEEP LAYERED BAM.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND IN A \r\nWEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL HINTS AT SOME POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SHEARING IN 24 HOURS OR \r\nSO...ALTHOUGH UPON FURTHER EXAMINATION OF THE LARGE SCALE MODEL \r\nFIELDS IT IS NOT CLEAR WHERE THIS SHEAR IS COMING FROM. THE GFDL \r\nBRINGS FAUSTO TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL AND CALLS FOR \r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 HOURS...AND AN 85 KNOT HURRICANE BY 72 \r\nHOURS. THIS IS REASONABLE GIVEN SUCH WARM WATER AND A FAVORABLE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 12.8N 108.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 12.9N 109.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.0N 112.1W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.1N 114.6W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 117.5W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER SHOWS LITTLE BANDING.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS IN A \r\nBAND WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE AND PROPAGATING OUTWARD.  SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...270/8.  FAUSTO \r\nIS SOUTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THERE IS A MODEST \r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE \r\nCYCLONE THAT COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24 \r\nHOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD BY BOTH THE AVN \r\nAND UKMET...SO THE OVERALL TRACK SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NICELY \r\nCLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY AND THE AVN.\r\n\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR ONLY LIMITED \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO ONLY 58 KT IN 48 \r\nHOURS...WHILE THE GFDL IS AT NEARLY 100 KT BY THAT TIME.  THE AVN \r\nINDICATES A SNEAK ATTACK...WITH SOME STRONGER 200 MB NORTHEASTERLY \r\nFLOW APPROACHING FAUSTO FROM BEHIND.  IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS KEEP AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF \r\nFAUSTO...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.  AS A \r\nRESULT...I HAVE NUDGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST TOWARD THE MORE \r\nCONSERVATIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 12.8N 109.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 12.8N 110.4W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 13.3N 112.7W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.7N 115.6W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.0N 124.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS.  A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES WELL-DEFINED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODELS SHOW A MODEST OR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY\r\nTHE GFDL AGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHENS FAUSTO.  WITH A WARM OCEAN AND NOT\r\nA VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED\r\nAND FAUSTO SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A STRONG \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD IS \r\nFORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST AND AMPLIFY. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY KEEPS FAUSTO ON A GENERAL \r\nWEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE \r\n...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD \r\nSPEED IS POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXPANDS AND THE STEERING \r\nFLOW BECOMES STRONGER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 13.2N 110.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.3N 112.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.0N 120.5W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2002\r\n\r\nFAUSTO HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...SHOWING A CLASSIC CURVED BAND PATTERN AND A\r\nLARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 45 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11.  FAUSTO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A \r\nDEEP LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST BY LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE TO\r\nPERSIST OR BUILD WESTWARD THROUGH AT LEAST 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS\r\nOFF THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CONTINUE FAUSTO\r\nON A WESTWARD TRACK THAT BECOMES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS...WITH THE ONLY\r\nDISAGREEMENT BEING ON WHEN THE TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE NOGAPS...\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND GFDN ALL FORECAST THE TURN IN ABOUT 36 HR...\r\nWHILE THE AVN WAITS UNTIL AFTER 48 HR.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE RIDGE IN ALL MODELS AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE STORM...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE AVN.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS SHOWING INCREASING OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND WITH\r\nITS LARGE SIZE AND WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION IT RESEMBLES OTHER\r\nSYSTEMS THAT HAVE BECOME MAJOR HURRICANES AFTER CLOSING OFF\r\nEYEWALLS.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE\r\nSTORM BEYOND 75 KT DUE TO SHEAR IN THE 24-36 HR PERIOD.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AT 200 MB ABOVE\r\nFAUSTO..AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHIPS MODEL IS MISTAKING SUCH\r\nOUTFLOW FOR A PATTERN THAT PRODUCES SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL BE  INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN VIEW OF THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND GENERAL IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE...AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT\r\nFAUSTO COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AFTER IT REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nAND THUS BECOME MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED UPWARD DUE TO THE LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION AND THE INCREASED FORECAST INTENSITY.  A PARTIAL\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS HINTS THAT THE WIND RADII MAY BE LARGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY ANALYZED...AND FURTHER REVISION MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE\r\nNEXT PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 13.2N 111.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.4N 113.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.6N 115.7W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N 118.8W    85 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.4N 121.8W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 127.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW\r\nWRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND A HINT OF A SMALL\r\nEYE IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE NOW 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO FAUSTO IS UPGRADED TO A\r\n65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THIS MIGHT\r\nBE DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...BUT IT MIGHT ALSO BE DUE TO\r\nA REFORMATION OF THE CENTER AS FAUSTO ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS THUS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/12.  FAUSTO REMAINS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT\r\nLEAST 48 HR.  THEREAFTER...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE AVN IS STILL\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET...NOGAPS...\r\nGFDL...AND GFDN ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN RESPONSE\r\nTO THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN SPITE OF THE CONTINUING RELUCTANCE OF\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST?  THE GFDL TAKES\r\nFAUSTO TO 108 KT IN 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES IT\r\nTO 100 KT IN 36 HR AND 105 KT IN 48 HR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THAT MODEL.  HOWEVER...FAUSTO MAY BE STARTING A RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION PHASE.  SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE AND THE HURRICANE\r\nFORM A SMALL EYE SIMILAR TO ELIDA...THEN IT COULD REACH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HR OR LESS.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT\r\nPEAK INTENSITY...ELIDA SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER\r\n48 HR AS IT MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 13.8N 113.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.1N 114.7W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.5N 117.2W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.1N 120.3W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 123.3W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO SHOW SOLID SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.  THE BEGINNINGS \r\nOF AN EYE IN EARLIER IMAGERY HAVE BECOME OBSCURED BY A VIGOROUS \r\nCDO...WELL BEFORE THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  IN ADDITION...OUTER BANDING \r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS DISSIPATING...WITH NEW BANDING \r\nDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE CORE.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG IN ALL \r\nQUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND \r\n65 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 \r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...BUT \r\nWELL FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY.  THERE IS \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  FAUSTO REMAINS SOUTH \r\nOF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME \r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A \r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS APPROACHED.  GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY \r\nCLUSTERED...WITH THE AVN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE \r\nENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN...RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF \r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS UNIMPRESSED WITH FAUSTO...MAINLY BECAUSE IT \r\nTHINKS IT SEES SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN...WARM WATER...AND APPARENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE OVERALL \r\nSTRUCTURE...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 14.4N 114.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 116.4W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 129.0W    95 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH VERY STRONG \r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS NOT \r\nOBSERVED ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AT THE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY... \r\nBUT IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE LATEST 0503 UTC MICROWAVE TRMM PASS. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED \r\nTO 80 TO 85 KNOTS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NONE OF THE LATEST \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AS MUCH AS INDICATED IN \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...EVEN THE GFDL IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS \r\nEARLIER. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND THE OCEAN IS \r\nWARM...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR \r\nTWO. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE REACHES COOL \r\nWATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/14 AND THERE IS NO REASON FOR FAUSTO TO CHANGE \r\nCOURSE. NOTHING NEW CAN BE ADDED THAT HAS NOT BEEN ALREADY SAID IN \r\nPREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS. THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED \r\nSOUTH OF A STRONG AND EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACK MODELS \r\nCONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. \r\n\r\nTHE EASTERN QUADRANT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED BASED ON THE LATEST \r\nQUIKSCAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 14.6N 116.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.2N 118.0W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N 120.5W   100 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W   100 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 130.9W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A DEVELOPING EYE IN\r\nIN THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS\r\nEXCELLENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 102 KT FROM AFWA.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/14 AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCONTINUES NORTH OF FAUSTO.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE \r\nSTEERING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 \r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY...CLOSE TO THE AVN BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL ONLY MODESTLY STRENGTHEN THE \r\nHURRICANE.  SINCE THE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEAR GOOD THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHEN FAUSTO \r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER FAUSTO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 14.9N 117.1W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 121.8W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 127.1W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF FAUSTO BECAME BETTER DEFINED JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY WAS SENT.  AT ONE POINT...OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM THE TECHNIQUE DEVELOPED BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN WERE\r\nAS HIGH AS 125 KT.  SOME WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL\r\nHAS OCCURRED SINCE THEN.  HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 102 KT...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nINCREASED TO 100 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 280 AND 285 DEGREES AT 14\r\nKT.  AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...FAUSTO IS SOUTH\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT SHOULD STEER IT IN A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE DECREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SINCE ABOUT 15Z BRINGS UP\r\nTHE QUESTION OF WHETHER FAUSTO HAS PEAKED.  WHILE THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE ARE NOW GRADUALLY COOLING...THEY\r\nWILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST\r\nANOTHER 12-24 HR.  ADDITIONALLY...FAUSTO IS WELL ORGANIZED AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE CONVECTIVE\r\nDECREASE IS TEMPORARY...POSSIBLY THE NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE...AND\r\nTHAT FAUSTO WILL INTENSIFY FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO BEFORE PEAKING.\r\nAFTER 24 HR...THE UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE\r\nENOUGH TO START A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 15.2N 118.6W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N 120.6W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.2N 123.2W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 125.9W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.6N 128.4W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 133.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE STILL T5.5...BUT SINCE\r\nTHEN INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BEEN SHRINKING.  A\r\nRECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK 12-H WEIGHTED AVERAGE CLASSIFICATION WAS\r\nT6.0...OR 115 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.\r\nOVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS EARLIER IN\r\nTHE DAY.  FAUSTO WILL HAVE ONE MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM OVER\r\nSSTS GREATER THAN 27C...SO THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FAUSTO\r\nTO GET A LITTLE STRONGER OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WATERS COOL.  THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW BECAUSE THE COOLING...AS WELL\r\nAS THE SHEAR...WILL BE MODEST UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN OR FORECAST REASONING.  THE AVN HAS BEEN DOING EXCEPTIONALLY\r\nWELL WITH THE TRACK OF FAUSTO SO FAR...WITH A MEAN 24 HOUR ERROR OF\r\nONLY 33 NM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE AVN...AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT FROM PFEW IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 15.3N 120.0W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.8N 121.8W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 124.5W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 127.1W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 129.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002\r\n \r\nIR IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAUSTO HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY RINGS\r\nOF VERY STRONG CONVECTION AND A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. BOTH OBJECTIVE \r\nAND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE \r\nINCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS \r\nBEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN \r\nTHEREAFTER AS THE HURRICANE REACHES COOL WATER AND INCREASING \r\nSHEAR.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS RIGHT ON TRACK...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT \r\n12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK \r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS STATED IN \r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 15.4N 121.3W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A MAJOR HURRICANE \r\nWITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.  SUBJECTIVE \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB \r\nAND AWFA.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AVERAGING JUST \r\nABOVE T6.5 OR ABOUT 127 KT.  AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS \r\nINCREASED TO 125 KT. \r\n\r\nFAUSTO REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING BETWEEN 280 AND 285 DEGREES AT \r\n12 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAIN VIRTUALLY \r\nUNCHANGED WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE \r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF FAUSTO. THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL...WHICH AS \r\nSTATED IN A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL\r\nWITH FAUSTO. \r\n\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER \r\nWATERS AND GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 15.8N 122.4W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 124.2W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.1N 126.6W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.9N 129.3W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.7N 131.8W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 137.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A 20 NM CLOUD FILLED EYE.  \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO \r\nSURROUND THE EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED \r\nWITH 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB AND AWFA. OBJECTIVE \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR T6.5 OR 127 KT. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 125 KT.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING AT 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED \r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY \r\nNORTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL WHICH IS ON THE \r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO HAS MOST LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER \r\nWATERS ARE AHEAD.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 16.2N 123.5W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 125.2W   120 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.9N 127.8W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 19.3N 130.7W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 20.8N 133.6W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 139.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002\r\n \r\nWHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...FAUSTO \r\nCONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE \r\nHAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT IS \r\nBASED ON A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5...\r\n127 KT...FROM TAFB AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER OF \r\nT6.4...ABOUT 125 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE \r\n...ESPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN \r\nSOUTH OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN IS RATHER FLAT AND MORE ZONAL WHICH \r\nWOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKE THE AVN AND AVN 10-MEMBER \r\nENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE \r\nAVN AND AVN-ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE THE SOUTHERN OR LEFTMOST OF ALL THE \r\nNHC DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THESE \r\nTWO MODELS...GIVEN THEIR CURRENT RUNNING ERRORS OF LESS THAN 50 NMI \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WEAKENING TREND WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED... \r\nEXCEPT THAT SLIGHTLY MORE WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS \r\nGIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN FORECAST TRACK EARLY ON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 16.8N 124.6W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 126.3W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.6N 128.7W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.8N 131.4W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 21.2N 134.8W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 23.0N 141.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS WELL DEFINED...HOWEVER IR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nDIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER IS A\r\nCONSENSUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  USING THE RULES FOR THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115\r\nKT...WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS STILL WELL-DEFINED...FAUSTO WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING\r\nWATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEG C.  BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS\r\nMORE WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS QUITE\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS ROUGHLY 295/12 KT.  FAUSTO REMAINS SITUATED\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  LATEST NCEP\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AT 500 MB SHOWS SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THIS...THE AVN FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD HEADING LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR.  THIS IS A BIT TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 17.4N 125.8W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.4N 127.7W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N 130.2W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 20.6N 133.0W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 21.8N 136.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.5N 142.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002\r\n\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER FAUSTO AS IT IS CROSSING THE \r\n26C SST ISOTHERM.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE DVORAK \r\nTECHNIQUE INDICATE A RANGE OF 100 TO 115 KT.  INTENSITY IS SET TO 95 \r\nKT... ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES TO REFLECT LOWER T-NUMBER \r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ASSESSMENT IS ABOUT 295/13 KT... A BIT FASTER \r\nTHAN BEFORE.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING SOUTH OF A WELL DEVELOPED \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED OVER \r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nQUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n\r\nA WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG CLOSER TO THE STORM AFTER 24 \r\nHOURS AND WILL INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE INCREASE IN \r\nSHEAR COMBINED WITH THE DECREASING SSTS SUGGEST A FAIRLY RAPID \r\nWEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nREFLECTS THIS SITUATION AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 18.1N 127.2W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.9N 129.1W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 131.7W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 21.2N 134.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 22.2N 137.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.9N 143.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002\r\n\r\nFAUSTO REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE ON \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE SYSTEM IS ONLY SLOWLY \r\nWEAKENING DUE TO COOLING SSTS AS VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED A BIT WITH 90 KT BEING A GOOD \r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...ABOUT \r\n300 DEGREES AT 14 KT.  FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY \r\nUNCHANGED AS FAUSTO REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE \r\nNORTH.  A BEND TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE TRACK BY THE LATER \r\nPERIODS AS FAUSTO BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVES MORE WITH \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO \r\nTHE NORTH BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE \r\n...NEAR THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN.  \r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AS UPPER \r\nCONDITIONS DEGRADE WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER FROM THE CENTER \r\nOF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE \r\nSTORM.  THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED WELL IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND IT WAS \r\nFOLLOWED FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  \r\n \r\n34-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND \r\n12-FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED TO MATCH 18 UTC SHIP OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 18.9N 128.5W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.9N 130.5W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 21.2N 133.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 22.2N 136.0W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 22.9N 138.9W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 24.4N 144.8W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n90 KNOTS.  THE AFWA 2331 UTC INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER...100 KNOTS.  HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME...THE OVERALL\r\nAPPEARANCE OF FAUSTO HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT WITH THE EYE BECOMING\r\nCLOUD FILLED AND BARELY DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  THUS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KNOTS FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...ABOUT 300\r\nDEGREES AT 15 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE HURRICANE\r\nREMAINS SITUATED SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A DEVELOPING CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION NEAR 24N144W WITH INCREASING MID- AND UPPER- LEVEL\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW WEST OF 135W.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT ANY STEERING\r\nINFLUENCE BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...  A BEND TO\r\nTHE WEST IS EXPECTED BY THE LATER PERIODS AS FAUSTO BECOMES A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVES MORE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...NEAR THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES.\r\nTHIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SCENARIO DEPICTED IN THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL WHICH WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 19.7N 130.0W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 20.8N 132.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 22.2N 135.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 23.3N 138.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 25.0N 147.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n\r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER 24 TO 25 DEG SST WATERS \r\nAND THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.  BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK \r\nANALYSES...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 KT.  WITH THE \r\nLIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PROBABLY \r\nREACHING THE SURFACE ONLY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA.  THE CIRCULATION \r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  FAUSTO MAY BE REDUCED TO REMNANT LOW \r\nBEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT 300/15.  A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR \r\n24N145W...NOTED EARLIER...HAS LIKELY BEEN A PARTIAL CONTRIBUTOR TO \r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF FAUSTO.  AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nWEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.  THUS THE \r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS VERY \r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 20.6N 131.4W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 21.6N 133.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 23.7N 140.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 24.5N 143.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 25.5N 149.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER 24 TO 25 DEG SSTS\r\nAND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE IS NO LONGER ANY \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS CIRCULATION AND THE WIND SPEED \r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS.  THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE \r\nTO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST.  FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT 300/15.  AS FAUSTO WEAKENS IT IS \r\nEXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN \r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 21.3N 132.7W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.3N 135.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 23.7N 138.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 24.4N 141.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 24.8N 144.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 25.5N 149.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER 23 TO 24 DEG SSTS\r\nAND ENCOUNTERS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE IS NO LONGER ANY\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ITS CIRCULATION AND THE WIND SPEED\r\nIS REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS.  THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nTO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS IF NOT \r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT 300/15.  AS FAUSTO WEAKENS IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 21.7N 134.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 136.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 23.5N 139.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 24.5N 142.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 25.3N 145.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 26.5N 151.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY DEPICT A CYCLONE VOID OF ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER 23C WATER.  A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 1410 UTC...ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...INDICATED A COUPLE 50 KNOT\r\nWIND BARBS.  WITH THE PASSAGE OF TIME OVER THE COOLER SSTS...THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE 34 KNOT\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR FAUSTO TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nDEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER\r\nFAUSTO IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/16. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIMPLY UPDATES THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 22.3N 136.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 23.1N 138.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 24.2N 141.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 25.0N 144.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 26.0N 147.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 27.5N 152.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL...WITH MOSTLY LAYERED \r\nCLOUDS AND SOME RAIN LIKELY OCCURING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF \r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION.  \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE QUESTIONABLE FOR THIS KIND OF \r\nSYSTEM...SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS WINDS OF MINIMAL \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED \r\nTO A DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING.  THE CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE \r\nTO WIND DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 290/16.  A PRONOUNCED LOW- TO \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A \r\nMOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THUS THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 22.9N 137.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 23.6N 139.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 24.5N 142.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 25.5N 145.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 26.5N 148.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 27.5N 154.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fausto","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF \r\nLAYERED CLOUDS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS AND WEAKENING IS \r\nFORECAST. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 TO \r\n24 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 14 \r\nTO 15 KNOTS OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 23.7N 139.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 24.5N 141.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 25.5N 144.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 26.5N 148.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fausto","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AS 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND WEAKENING IS \r\nFORECAST. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 \r\nHOURS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER COOL \r\nWATERS.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE FAUSTO HAS CROSSED THE LONGITUDE 140 DEGREES WEST...THE NEXT \r\nADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AT \r\nHONOLULU. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 24.3N 140.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 25.0N 142.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N 146.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 27.0N 149.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL \r\nDISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO \r\nHAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.  BANDING FEATURES \r\nHAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE \r\nOF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM TAFB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL \r\nQUADRANTS...BUT IS STEADILY IMPROVING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM \r\nNORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO NORTH OF HURRICANE FAUSTO. ALL OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS POORLY INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM...AT BEST...DESPITE THE \r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEPICTED NICELY IN AN EARLIER \r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND \r\nOF THE CLIPER... LBAR...DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS...AND ALSO USING \r\nTHE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR A \"STRAIGHT-RUNNER.\".  \r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY THRU 36 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED ABOVE SHIPS AFTER THAT. THE REASON \r\nIS THAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED THE LBAR FORECAST TRACK TO DETERMINE \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH REMAINS LESS THAN 10 KT THRU 48 \r\nHOURS...BUT THEN INCREASES THE SHEAR SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE LBAR TAKES \r\nTHE CYCLONE RAPIDLY NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE AVN MODEL IS \r\nFORECASTING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE OFFICIAL 48- \r\nAND 72-HOUR POSITIONS. HOWEVER...NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MODELS MOVE \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST AND KEEP THE CYCLONE UNDER \r\nWEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  GIVEN THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THIS \r\nSYSTEM BY THE AVN AND CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING ONE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WESTWARD AND ANOTHER \r\nONE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD...THEN IT \r\nAPPEARS THAT THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED \r\nTO PASS BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER-LOWS...THE OUFLOW ENVIRONMENT APPEARS \r\nTO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE INNER-CORE \r\nCONVECTION PERSISTS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE \r\nTOO LOW AT 48- AND 72-HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 15.0N 110.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.1N 111.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.3N 112.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 114.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.8N 115.9W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 119.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OR\r\nINTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS MINIMAL UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...AND AN UPPER\r\nLOW TO THE NORTH APPEARS TO BE EXERTING AN UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE.\r\nAS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER THE LATEST NCEP HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES\r\nSHOWS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKE OF\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO...WHICH COULD RETARD THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL HAD TROUBLE INTIALIZING THIS SYSTEM AND SHOWS \r\nONLY A NW-SE ORIENTED TROUGH OVER THE DEPRESSION CENTER...EXTENDING \r\nTO A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE \r\nSOUTHEAST.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0123 UTC DID SHOW THAT THE \r\nCIRCULATION WAS ELONGATED TO THE SOUTHEAST SO THERE IS LIKELY A \r\nGRAIN OF TRUTH IN THE GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSIS.  IN ANY EVENT...THE AVN \r\nTRACKER WAS UNABLE TO FOLLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE FORECAST.  \r\nTHE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVERSE...AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A \r\nLOOPING MOTION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE PRESENCE OF A \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST TAKES THE \r\nSYSTEM SLOWLY AND GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 15.0N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 112.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 113.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 15.2N 115.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 15.5N 116.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 120.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES \r\nAND THE CENTER MIGHT TO THE SOUTH OF THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7.  THE AVIATION MODEL FAILS TO \r\nINITIALIZE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE AT 06Z.  THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE \r\nSYSTEM TURNING SOUTH...LOOPING AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE \r\nNEXT 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWEST \r\nMOTION FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...PROBABLY THE RESULT OF \r\nWEAKENING OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 24 \r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL CONCEPT AND IS \r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT HAS \r\nBEEN SPORADIC AND NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR \r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE IN 72 HOURS AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR.  AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE LATEST \r\nNCEP HIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES SHOWS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY COOLER \r\nWATERS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION... \r\nPROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAKE OF HURRICANE FAUSTO...WHICH COULD \r\nRETARD THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 14.7N 112.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.6N 113.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 114.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 14.8N 117.4W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.  \r\nHOWEVER...DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED \r\nCONSIDERABLY...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE \r\nENTIRE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH.  ALSO THE CENTER \r\nLOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH TAFB AND SAB POSITIONS 60 N MI \r\nAPART.  I OPT TO DELAY UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO STORM STATUS \r\nUNTIL THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.  EXCEPT FOR A COOL POOL OF SSTS \r\nNEARBY CREATED BY FAUSTOS WAKE...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 65 KNOTS \r\nIN 72 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL MINUS A FEW KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE ADVISORY INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE \r\nSHOWS THE TRACK MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS \r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.  THIS IS THE RESULT OF \r\nTHE STRONG EAST/WEST MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH DEVELOPING A \r\nWEAKNESS NEAR 122W AT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/2100Z 14.1N 113.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0600Z 13.9N 114.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     27/1800Z 13.6N 115.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/0600Z 13.7N 117.1W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.1N 118.7W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1800Z 15.1N 122.0W    65 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 26 2002\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP BUT SHAPELESS \r\nCONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH NO BANDING \r\nFEATURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND \r\nKCWC...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO \r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE... PRONOUNCED JEN-AH-VEEV.\r\n\r\nTHE LACK OF FEATURES IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN MAKES THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION AND MOTION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE \r\nFORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED.  WITH A NOD TO CONTINUITY THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION IS SET AT 255/6.  THE SYNOPIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLICATED.  \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...WHILE IN THE MID LEVELS A RIDGE \r\nAPPEARS TO BE CURRENTLY WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nCYCLONE.  PERHAPS NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN \r\nVERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  ON ONE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...THE GFDL \r\nSLOWS GENEVIEVE SHARPLY AND THEN BENDS THE TRACK TO THE NORTH- \r\nNORTHWEST...WHILE ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE AVN MAINTAINS A STEADY \r\nTRANSLATION SPEED WHILE ONLY SLOWLY TURNING THE TRACK TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  AS IT WAS WITH FAUSTO...THE AVN IS THE SOUTHERMOST \r\nOF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  WHILE THE AVN PERFORMED EXTREMELY WELL WITH \r\nFAUSTO...AND IN FACT IT HAS PERFORMED WELL IN THIS BASIN ALL \r\nYEAR...I WONDER WHETHER THE CURRENT APPARENT SLOWDOWN IS A CLUE THAT \r\nTHE GFDL MIGHT BE ON TO SOMETHING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE SLOWER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nTRACK...BUT IS STILL CLOSER TO THE AVN THAN TO THE GFDL...AND CLOSE \r\nTO BOTH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS.  PERHAPS A LARGER ADJUSTMENT \r\nWILL BE MADE WHEN MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION CAN BE \r\nOBTAINED.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER LOW ALSO COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AS IT DIGS \r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF GENEVIEVE...IT COULD REACH A FAVORABLE \r\nRELATIVE LOCATION WHERE THE NORTHWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS \r\nENHANCED.  HOWEVER...THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW WILL INCREASE THE \r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  FURTHERMORE...GENEVIEVE IS LIKELY TO \r\nENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS MIXED UPWARD BY FAUSTO.  THEREFORE...THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR UNENTHUSIASTIC STRENGTHENING...CLOSE TO \r\nBUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0300Z 13.9N 113.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.7N 114.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0000Z 13.6N 115.9W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.9N 117.2W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 118.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 121.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO LACK SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...AN ILL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE MAY BE FORMING\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45\r\nKT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER\r\nAGENCY.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTHWEST OF\r\nGENEVIEVE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS\r\nSEPARATION DISTANCE FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  COOLER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO...AS INDICATED\r\nIN NCEP HIGH RESOLUTION SST ANALYSIS NEAR 120W...COULD BE A LIMITING\r\nFACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN IR IMAGERY. BEST ESTIMATE \r\nOF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/6. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY \r\nNORTH OF GENEVIEVE. TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS SPREAD THAN EARLIER \r\nRUNS WITH BOTH NAVY AND NCEP GFDL RUNS SHOWING THE MOST NORTHWARD \r\nTRACKS. REVIEW OF LOW-LEVEL FIELDS IN THOSE MODELS INDICATE THE \r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE SPURIOUS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST \r\nOF GENEVIEVE WHICH MAY BE PRODUCING A POLEWARD BIAS. THE OFFICIAL \r\nTRACK FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS A CONSENSUS OF THE NCEP...UKMET...AND \r\nNOGAPS TRACKS.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/0900Z 13.9N 114.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.7N 114.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/0600Z 14.1N 116.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     28/1800Z 14.8N 117.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/0600Z 15.7N 119.2W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE \r\nCENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE INCREASING WITH A T3.5 FROM TAFB AND T3.0 FROM SAB. A \r\n1003 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS VERTICALLY ALIGNED \r\nWITH A POSSIBLE EYEWALL FORMING ON THE WEST SIDE.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.\r\n\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE NO HINDRANCE TO STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS UNDER A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND WARM WATER.\r\nHOWEVER AFTER 24 HOURS THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE DIRECTLY\r\nOVER THE COOL WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY FAUSTO WHICH COULD PREVENT FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF PREVIOUS\r\nONE...  270/6 AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE STARTING A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nRIGHT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO\r\nWEAKEN AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ALONG 120W.  THIS SITUATION SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AFTER 12 HOURS.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO\r\nTHE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/1500Z 13.9N 114.6W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 115.5W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0000Z 15.4N 118.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.3N 120.1W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.1N 123.2W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nWITH 60 KT BEING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TAFB/SAB AND AFWA ESTIMATES.\r\nTHE FINAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 1547Z SMMI PASS WHICH\r\nSHOWS A FORMING EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN ON THE EASTERN SIDE.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE HAS TURNED A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING AT\r\n275/6.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AS IT MOVES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW TO ITS WEST AND A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN\r\n120W-125W IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER\r\nANTICIPATED AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH...IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nOUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND\r\nGENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE IT RUNS\r\nSTRAIGHT INTO FAUSTOS COLD WAKE...AN AREA OF SSTS BETWEEN 24C-26C.\r\nTHIS MAY HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IDEA IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 48 HOURS AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE PASSES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     27/2100Z 14.2N 115.2W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/0600Z 14.4N 116.1W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 117.3W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.1N 118.7W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N 120.2W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 123.4W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY THIS EVENING WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE \r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE \r\nOVERALL STORM ENVELOPE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS \r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...WITH THE AFWA COMING IN AT 55 KNOTS. \r\nTHE LATEST TRMM PASS AT 0055 UTC INDICATES GENEVIEVE MAY NOT BE \r\nVERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH DIFFERENT CENTER FIXES FROM THE 85 GHZ AND \r\n37 GHZ CHANNELS. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KNOTS FOR \r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO TURN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY \r\nFASTER FORWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/8. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS \r\nIT MOVES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW TO ITS WEST AND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE \r\nOVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS.\r\nTHE GFDI/GUNS/GUNA AND THE BAMS TAKE THE STORM NORTHWEST \r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS WHILE THE AVN/GFS/UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE \r\nA GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN \r\n120W-125W IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER \r\nANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. \r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF THIS WEAKNESS ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF GENEVIEVE \r\nWILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF THE STORM IS LEFT BY THE TIME IT \r\nENCOUNTERS THIS FEATURE. \r\n \r\nOUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS BEING DISTORTED BY THE \r\nPRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 16N122W WITH THE OVERALL \r\nSTORM ENVELOPE ELONGATED NW-SE. THE STORM IS ALREADY SITUATED WEST \r\nOF THE WARMEST WATERS AND IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR A COOL POOL\r\nOF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEFT IN FAUSTOS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY THE \r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM OVER COOLER SSTS EARLIER IN THE \r\nFORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PARED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND PEAKS GENEVIEVE AT 75 KNOTS IN 24-36 HOURS WITH SOME \r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS \r\nINTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0300Z 14.7N 115.9W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.2N 118.3W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.3N 119.6W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.5N 121.0W    70 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 124.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 28 2002\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH\r\nLITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF\r\nGENEVIEVE IS PROBABLY HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STORM.  DVORAK \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB/SAB\r\nAND 55 KNOTS FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  HOWEVER...FINAL T NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60\r\nKNOTS FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...PERHAPS DUE \r\nTO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH A CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE \r\nOF 310/8.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWEST TOWARD A \r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH NEAR 120W.  THE \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH \r\n48 HOURS...AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE DIVERGENT BEYOND THAT TIME.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET/GFDL/AVN \r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN LEANS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AVN/NOGAPS \r\nSOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE OVERALL \r\nWEAKENING TREND EXPECTED LATER IN THE FORECAST...AND THE STEERING \r\nBECOMING DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO CROSS OVER THE COOL WAKE OF FAUSTO.\r\nTHIS...AND PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LOW...SHOULD LIMIT\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION OF GENEVIEVE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...EVEN COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/0900Z 15.5N 116.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     28/1800Z 16.2N 117.3W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.4N 118.8W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 28 2002\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE AS IT IS\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM.  THE CENTER IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES.\r\nHOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A\r\nT4.0 FROM SAB/AFWA AND T4.5 FROM TAFB.  GIVEN THE CURRENT DISRUPTED \r\nCLOUD PATTERN...THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...VISIBLE PICTURES LATER TODAY WILL HELP TO OBTAIN A BETTER  \r\nINTENSITY. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS \r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A BEND TO THE LEFT AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE GFS MODEL HAS HAD A CONSISTENT EQUATORWARD BIAS \r\nAND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BETWEEN \r\nTHE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION WITH FAUSTOS COOL \r\nWAKE TURNED OUT TO BE MORE DETRIMENTAL TO GENEVIEVE THAN ANTICIPATED \r\nAND THE CYCLONE DID NOT INTENSIFY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS \r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNTIL INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND \r\nCOOLER SSTS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/1500Z 16.1N 117.0W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.1N 118.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.4N 119.7W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.7N 121.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1200Z 20.9N 123.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1200Z 23.0N 126.3W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT GENEVIEVE IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED...\r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE STILL AT T4.0...65 KNOTS...BUT WITH \r\nTHE CURRENT DISORGANIZED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE \r\nMAINTAINED AT 60 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING AS THE STORM\r\nMOVES ON A NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD COOLER WATERS.  THIS APPROXIMATE\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND TURNS TO THE\r\nLEFT...MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE\r\nSHEAR MAY BE LESSENING OVER THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR \r\nGENEVIEVE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE STORM HAS AT \r\nMOST 24 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COOLER SSTS BELOW 26C.  LITTLE\r\nNET CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A STEADY WEAKENING\r\nFORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     28/2100Z 16.9N 118.3W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N 119.5W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.2N 121.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.4N 122.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.6N 124.3W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N 127.6W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST IR IMAGERY INDICATES GENEVIEVE HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION CONFINED TO THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER. IT WOULD BE GENEROUS TO CALL THIS CONVECTIVE AREA \r\nA CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM \r\nTAFB...SAB AND AFWA REMAIN 65 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE RATHER RAGGED \r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED \r\nAT 60 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN TO THE SOUTH \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE \r\nLEFT...300/11. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nPACKAGE GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS. OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN \r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING AS GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST \r\nTOWARD COOLER WATERS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND \r\nTURNS TO THE LEFT...MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND OVER THE \r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AN INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING \r\nOVER THE SYSTEM. GENEVIEVE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER 26-27C SSTS \r\nBEFORE CROSSING INTO COOLER WATERS. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE\r\nFOR GENEVIEVE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THIS TIME\r\n...BUT THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 HOURS AND GENEVIEVE IS \r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE \r\nPERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0300Z 17.2N 119.5W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1200Z 17.9N 121.0W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.9N 122.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.9N 124.4W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N 126.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     01/0000Z 22.5N 129.5W    25 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD \r\nTOPS.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND AFWA \r\nREMAIN AT 65 KNOTS...WITH TAFB AT 55 KNOTS. GIVEN THE APPEARENCE IN \r\nTHE IMAGERY AND THE FACT THAT THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE A \r\nWEAKENING SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. \r\nALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...GENEVIEVE HAS ONLY 12 HOURS \r\nREMAINING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS.  THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLOW WEAKENING INTIALLY...FOLLOWED BY A \r\nMORE RAPID DECAY AS THE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL BELOW 25C. THIS IS FAIRLY \r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT SHOWS A BIT FASTER RATE OF \r\nWEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO \r\nLOCATE..AS REFLECTED BY THE SPREAD IN THE FIX POSITIONS. THE \r\nFORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH NO \r\nCHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT SHOULD \r\nBE DOMINATED BY LOW-LEVEL STEERING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/0900Z 17.6N 120.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.4N 121.7W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.3N 123.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.4N 125.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     31/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     01/0600Z 23.0N 131.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2002\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL \r\nMOTION OF 320/9...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER POSITION IS DIFFICULT TO \r\nDETERMINE WITH IR IMAGERY.  SOME ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION \r\nAND MOTION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES \r\nAVAILABLE.  A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...WHICH NORMALLY \r\nYIELDS A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE WITH WEAKENING SYSTEMS THAN THE \r\nCI NUMBER...SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  A SCATTEROMETER PASS \r\nINDICATED WINDS WERE ALREADY DOWN TO 40-45 KT 13 HOURS AGO...AND SO \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION IS A RESULT OF THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST \r\nAND A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  \r\nAS GENEVIEVE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER \r\nSYSTEM IT SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARDS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND \r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/1500Z 18.6N 120.4W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 121.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 123.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/0000Z 21.5N 125.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     31/1200Z 22.0N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     01/1200Z 22.5N 132.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS CLARIFIED THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF \r\nGENEVIEVE...WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION BEING A LITTLE TOO \r\nFAR TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  GENEVIEVE IS \r\nMOVING AROUND AN UPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST \r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY A \r\nLOWER-LAYER FLOW. \r\n\r\nDVORAK CI INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 45 \r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE T NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 \r\nKT.  USING A BLEND OF THESE GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  \r\nGENEVIEVE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THERE IS SOME SHEAR \r\nFROM THE UPPER LOW.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED \r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     29/2100Z 19.0N 121.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     30/1800Z 21.1N 123.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N 124.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     31/1800Z 22.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     01/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2002\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR NOTED.\r\nTHIS SHEAR IS DISTORTING THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB ARE 35 KNOTS WITH SAB AND \r\nAFWA COMING IN WITH 45 KNOTS. DATA T NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX \r\nHOURS AGO....GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THUS GENEVIEVE REMAINS A \r\n35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/8 AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN \r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH GENEVIEVE EVENTUALLY TURNING \r\nMORE TO THE WEST AS IT BECOMES A WEAKER SHALLOW SYSTEM. \r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE IS NOW TRACKING OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES \r\nAND A STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THIS \r\nCONVECTIVE BURST. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0300Z 19.4N 121.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.1N 122.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0000Z 21.2N 124.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     31/1200Z 22.1N 125.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     01/0000Z 23.0N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     02/0000Z 24.0N 130.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF BURST EARLIER TONIGHT...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRETTY\r\nMUCH DISAPPEARED.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO SYNOPTIC REASONING AS THE STORM\r\nCONTINUES A 310/8 MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK WITH LESS OF A TURN TO THE LEFT AFTER 36 HOURS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE BAM SHALLOW MODEL.\r\n \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY WITH THE STORM MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND WITH SHEAR VALUES CONTINUING TO INCREASE.\r\nDISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24-36 HOURS WITH ONLY A REMNANT LOW\r\nREMAINING AFTERWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 20.0N 122.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.7N 123.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 21.7N 124.7W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 22.7N 126.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 23.7N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 25.0N 131.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE...AND THE \r\nCYCLONE IS OVER 24 TO 25C WATER.  A CONTINUED SLOW SPIN DOWN IS \r\nEXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY TRACK \r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 20.3N 123.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N 124.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 22.0N 125.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 23.0N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 24.0N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 25.0N 131.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE DOES NOT WANT TO GIVE UP JUST YET...AS SOME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...AND THIS IS\r\nCONFIRMED BY A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1408Z THAT SHOWED NUMEROUS 30 KT\r\nVECTORS.  THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  SSTS ARE NOW ABOUT 24C...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST \r\nIN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  GENEVIEVE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF \r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS PROVIDING THE SOUTHEASTERLY \r\nSTEERING CURRENT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK ARE EXPECTED \r\nPRIOR TO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 21.0N 123.8W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 21.9N 124.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 23.0N 126.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 23.8N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 131.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH \r\nIS PRESENT ONLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HAS DECREASED \r\nFOLLOWING THE BURST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK \r\nCI NUMBERS FROM TAFB..SAB..AND AFWA HAVE ALL DECREASED TO \r\n1.5...SUPPORTING THE OFFICIAL CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315/8...STEERED BY AN \r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY TO THE SOUTHWEST.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE \r\nTHAT GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR ABOUT THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT \r\nWEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST \r\nIS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN \r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE IS TRAVERSING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 24 DEG C AND IS HEADED \r\nTOWARD EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR \r\nTHIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING.  SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS \r\nOF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB/RHOME\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 21.8N 124.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 22.7N 125.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.6N 126.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.3N 128.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 24.9N 129.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ONLY WEAK CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE DVORAK CI NUMBER FROM TAFB IS 1.5 AND A QUIKSCAT \r\nPASS OVER GENEVIEVE AT 0231 UTC CONTAINED SOME UNCONTAMINATED 25 KT \r\nWIND VECTORS...THUS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  GENEVIEVE \r\nIS MOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22-23 DEG C AND IS ENCOUNTERING \r\nSOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT \r\nDAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... \r\nWITH A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION STEERED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW \r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AGUIRRE/KNABB/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 22.7N 125.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N 126.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.4N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 25.1N 128.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nGENEVIENE IS BASICALLY A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nPATCHES OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION. IT IS\r\nMOVING NORTHNORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS OVER INCREASING COOLER WATER AND\r\nDISSIPATION IS EXPECTED SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BURR\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 23.6N 125.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 24.3N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 25.5N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 26.5N 128.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nPATCHES OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. IT IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVER\r\nINCREASING COOLER WATER AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BURR\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 24.6N 125.8W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N 126.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 27.0N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nPATCHES OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION.  IT IS\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS OVER COOLER WATER\r\nAND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 24.7N 126.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 25.3N 127.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 26.0N 129.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.\r\nWHAT LITTLE SHALLOW TO MID LEVEL CONVECTION THAT REMAINS IS BEING\r\nSHEARED BY HIGH LEVEL SOUTHWESTELY WINDS.  THEREFORE...GENEVIEVE IS\r\nNOW A REMNANT LOW.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL \r\nSTEERING FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON GENEVIEVE.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON \r\nTHIS REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO \r\nHEADER FZPNO1 KWBC OR AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 25.0N 127.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 25.4N 128.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 25.5N 130.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nGET BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  THUS THE AREA IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AND IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE\r\nT2.5 FROM SAB... T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT 290/4 SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nOVER MEXICO AND SHOULD PROVIDE A STEERING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH\r\nSOME ACCELERATION AFTER 24 HOURS AS INDICATED BY BAM SUITE AND THE\r\nGFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE IN A FAVORABLE PLACE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS NEAR 29C.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS BUILD A RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nCURRENTLY TO ITS NORTH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE\r\nSTORM.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/0900Z 13.6N 103.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.8N 103.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/0600Z 14.2N 104.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     31/1800Z 14.6N 106.1W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.1N 107.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/0600Z 16.6N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...AND THE \r\nDEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS.  HERNAN IS \r\nGENERATING AMPLE VERY COLD CONVECTION IN TWO MAIN CLUSTERS NORTHEAST \r\nAND WEST OF THE PRESUMED CENTER...ALTHOUGH BANDING IS NOT YET \r\nAPPARENT.  THE SURFACE CIRCULATION STILL IS ELONGATED NE-SW.  THE \r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN SHOWS PLENTY OF DIVERGENCE BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH \r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/3.  \r\nNEITHER THE AVN...UKMET...NOR THE NOGAPS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE HERNAN \r\nVERY WELL...SO I DO NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THEIR \r\nRESPECTIVE FORECASTS.  HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HERNAN \r\nWILL TAKE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY \r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED \r\nSTATES.  ONLY THE UKMET INDICATES A CLOSE APPROACH OF THE CYCLONE TO \r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE SOLUTION \r\nOFFERED BY THE BETA-ADVECTION MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOW AND THE WATER IS \r\nWARM...SO CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.  ONE \r\nINHIBITING FACTOR MAY BE AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF \r\nHERNAN...WHICH COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANT IF HERNAN TAKES A MORE \r\nNORTHERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES \r\nTHAT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ONLY A MODEST EFFECT ON THE \r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND IS ROUGHLY A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND \r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/1500Z 13.9N 103.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0000Z 14.2N 103.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1200Z 14.8N 104.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.5N 105.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1200Z 17.0N 110.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n \r\nTHINGS HAVE HOPEFULLY CLARIFIED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...BOTH IN \r\nTERMS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION AND THE FORECAST.  HERNAN IS BECOMING \r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...MORE CIRCULAR AND WITH GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND \r\nA BETTER-DEFINED OUTFLOW.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING \r\nSUPPORTED WINDS OF 40 KT OR SO. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB \r\nARE 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS \r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nWITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION AND MOTION IS MORE CERTAIN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS \r\nESTIMATED TO BE 310/7.  HERNAN WAS WELL INITIALIZED IN BOTH THE AVN \r\nAND UKMET MODELS AT 12Z TODAY...AND PERHAPS AS A RESULT THE GUIDANCE \r\nSUITE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  HERNAN IS \r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY \r\nOF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CENTER OF A WELL-CLUSTERED \r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND CLOSEST TO THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nWITH AN IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND LESS \r\nLIKELIHOOD OF A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK INTO A HIGHER SHEAR \r\nENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN BUMPED UP FROM THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM TO ABOUT 100 \r\nKT...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS OUT AT 81 KT. \r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS MORNINGS QUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     30/2100Z 14.4N 104.3W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/0600Z 14.9N 105.4W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     31/1800Z 15.4N 107.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/0600Z 16.0N 108.5W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 113.5W    85 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002\r\n\r\nHERNAN HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP UP THIS EVENING...WITH A BAND OF\r\nCOLD CONVECTIVE TOPS NOW ENCIRCLING THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA WERE ALL\r\n55 KT AT 00Z...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED SINCE THEN.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE RAISED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD STEER HERNAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nAT LEAST 48 HR...AS INDICATED BY THE WELL-CLUSTERED LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AND NHC TRACK GUIDANCE.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE RIDGE MAY\r\nWEAKEN AS A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE U.S. WEST\r\nCOAST.  WHILE NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWARD MOTION IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AT THIS TIME...IT WILL BE INTERESTING\r\nTO SEE IF LATER MODEL RUNS TRY TO TURN HERNAN MORE TO THE RIGHT\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nHERNAN IS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND\r\nBOTH OF THESE ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 36 HR.  THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...AND THE \r\nSTORM MAY BE STRONGER THAN THE CURRENTLY FORECAST 90 KT IN 36-48 HR.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY\r\nCOOL...SO INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CEASE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0300Z 14.9N 105.4W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1200Z 15.4N 106.5W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0000Z 16.1N 108.1W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N 114.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nWITH A LARGE COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES BRING HERNAN TO HURRICANE STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED \r\nIS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ARE \r\nEXPECTED TO ALLOW HERNAN TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nBRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 98 KT IN 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nMORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD STEER HERNAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE \r\nNEXT 72 HOURS AND ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS \r\nSCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...AND AN UPDATE \r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nA SHIP REPORT AT 06Z SHOWS 35 KT WIND SPEEDS CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN \r\nCOAST.  BUT SINCE HERNAN IS ALREADY AT ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH \r\nTO MEXICO...WINDS NEAR THE COAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE DECREASING.  \r\nTHIS SHIP REPORT IS ALSO THE BASIS FOR EXTENDING THE 35-KT WIND \r\nRADIUS AND 12-FT SEAS RADIUS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/0900Z 15.3N 106.5W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     31/1800Z 15.9N 107.8W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/0600Z 16.6N 109.4W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     01/1800Z 17.3N 110.9W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.9N 112.4W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 115.2W    90 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n\r\nHERNAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MUCH \r\nBETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES WITH \r\nEXCELLENT OUTFLOW. BECAUSE T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE \r\nINCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS \r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS.  ALL INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/10 AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. HERNAN IS \r\nMOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED \r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST \r\nTO PERSIST...A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED \r\nDURING THE FEW DAYS. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/1500Z 15.3N 107.3W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.7N 109.0W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.5N 110.8W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 112.5W   110 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n\r\nANOTHER INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE SATELLITE \r\nPRESENTATION OF HERNAN IS EXCELLENT. IT IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH A \r\nRAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS \r\nBANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MAXIMUM \r\nWINDS ARE NOW 105 KNOTS.  ALL INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR \r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nHERNAN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH\r\nEXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  A GRADUAL\r\nTURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE REACHES\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND APPROACHES A TROUGH IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE \r\nMIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BURR\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     31/2100Z 15.9N 108.3W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.3N 109.7W   110 KTS\r\n24HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W   115 KTS\r\n48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W   110 KTS\r\n72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.5N 119.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A\r\nRING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...NOW AT 6.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW 115 KNOTS.  ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR\r\nCONTINUED INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nHERNAN HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE DIRECTION OF MOTION ARE\r\nANTICIPATED...AND TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED IN THE NE AND SE QUADS BASED UPON \r\nA SHIP REPORT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0300Z 16.7N 109.3W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.1N 110.8W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W   135 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W   135 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W   130 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0000Z 19.2N 119.5W   105 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.  THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB IS 6.5\r\nAND 6.0 FROM SAB.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS.\r\nALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION BUT SHIPS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH\r\nTIME THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nHERNAN HAS MADE SEVERAL MINOR TRACK OSCILLATIONS OVER THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS BUT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS\r\nINCREASED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 12 KNOTS.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED AND HERNAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSTRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE DIRECTION OF MOTION ARE ANTICIPATED...AND\r\nTRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/0900Z 17.0N 110.6W   130 KTS\r\n12HR VT     01/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W   140 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.2N 114.1W   145 KTS\r\n36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.6N 116.2W   140 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N 118.2W   135 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/0600Z 19.9N 121.9W   110 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS SPECTACULAR ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THERE IS A\r\nWELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD TOPS.\r\nUNANIMOUSLY...ALL AGENCIES HAVE GIVEN HERNAN A T-NUMBER OF 7.0 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE.  THIS MEANS THAT ESTIMATED WINDS AND PRESSURE ARE\r\n140 KNOTS AND OF 921 MB RESPECTIVELY.  HERNAN HAS BECOME THE SECOND\r\nCATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS SEASON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL \r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT WEAKENING SHOULD \r\nBEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER \r\nWATERS.\r\n\r\nHERNAN IS RIGHT ON TRACK...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS \r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS \r\nWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST \r\nTO PERSIST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK ARE ANTICIPATED \r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE \r\nNORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES A WEAKENESS IN THE \r\nRIDGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/1500Z 17.4N 111.5W   140 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N 112.9W   150 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W   145 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W   140 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W   135 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   100 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SPECTACULAR ON SATELLITE IMAGES.\r\nTHERE IS A WELL DEFINED EYE THAT HAS BEEN SHRINKING DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  THE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD TOPS.\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING\r\nWINDS REMAIN AT 140 KNOTS.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN THEREAFTER...AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER\r\nWATERS.\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS\r\nWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO PERSIST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK ARE ANTICIPATED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE REACHES THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BURR\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     01/2100Z 17.8N 112.8W   140 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W   145 KTS\r\n24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W   140 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N 118.5W   130 KTS\r\n48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W   120 KTS\r\n72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 123.0W    90 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT HERNAN HAS WEAKENED SOME DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WARMED...\r\nWHILE THE EYE ITSELF HAS COOLED A BIT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND WITH\r\nT-NUMBERS RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE REDUCED TO 135 KT.  THIS WEAKENING MAY BE DUE TO AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE...NOT UNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES OF THIS MAGNITUDE.\r\nINDEED...A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS AT 0134 UTC STRONGLY SUGGESTS A\r\nDOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE...THEREFORE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY \r\nMAY OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE HERNAN ENCOUNTERS COOLER \r\nWATERS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12...AND THIS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE PERSISTS \r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...HERNAN IS FORECAST TO \r\nMAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE CYCLONE \r\nREACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND RESPONDS TO A \r\nDEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND \r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0300Z 18.1N 114.0W   135 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W   130 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.4N 117.8W   130 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.1N 119.8W   120 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 121.5W   105 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HERNAN CONTINUES ON\r\nA WEAKENING TREND. CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WARMED\r\n...WHILE THE EYE ITSELF HAS COOLED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND WITH \r\nT-NUMBERS DOWN TO 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 115 KT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY \r\nDUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...NOT UNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES OF \r\nTHIS MAGNITUDE. IF THIS CYCLE CONTINUES THEN SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY\r\nAPPROACHING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY PREVENT THE\r\nSHORT TERM FROM RESTRENGTHENING...AND WILL WEAKEN THE STORM IN \r\nTHE LONG TERM. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10...AND THIS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE PERSISTS\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...HERNAN IS FORECAST TO\r\nMAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE CYCLONE\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND RESPONDS TO A\r\nDEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/0900Z 18.5N 114.8W   115 KTS\r\n12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N 118.5W   110 KTS\r\n36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.4N 120.3W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.6N 122.0W    80 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.8N 124.1W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE DESPITE THE SLOW WEAKENING \r\nTHAT HAS OCCURRED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT IS BASED DVROAK \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT...T6.0...FROM ALL THREE \r\nAGENCIES AND THE WARMING EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. HERNAN HAS MADE A SLIGHT JOG \r\nTO THE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A \r\nTEMPORARY MOTION GIVEN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND \r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF 125W \r\nLONGITUDE. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nON HERNAN GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWARD \r\nAND POSSIBLY BEGINNING RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS \r\nAS THE HURRICANE MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AN \r\nAPPROACHING MID TO UPEPR-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP TO ACCELERATE \r\nTHE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE AVN \r\nAND AVN ENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n\r\nHERNAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS THE \r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPEPR-LEVEL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nSHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT \r\nAS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BEGINS TO DISSIPATE HERNAN BY \r\nAROUND 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD HIGHER THAN SHIPS SINCE \r\nHERNAN HAS MOVED WESTWARD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE HURRICANE OVER \r\nWARMER WATER A LITTLE LONGER THAN WHAT SHIPS IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/1500Z 18.5N 115.9W   105 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.9N 117.5W   100 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.7N 119.5W    90 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.9N 121.3W    75 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1200Z 22.2N 122.8W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1200Z 25.0N 124.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n\r\nHERNAN IS STILL AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE DESPITE THE EYEWALL \r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT IT HAS BEEN UNDERGOING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nOF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVROAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nOF 90 KT... OR T5.0...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.7...OR 105 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. IT APPEARS THAT HERNAN MAY \r\nHAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS BASE COURSE OF 290 DEGREES. HOWEVER... \r\nTHE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL PATTERN...AS SEEN IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE \r\nDATA...MAY RESULT IN A SOME WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN WEST-NORTHWEST \r\nTRACK FOR ANOTHER 6 TO 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS \r\nCONSISTENT WITH TAKING HERNAN GRADUALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD \r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48 \r\nHOURS...AND THEN RECURVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS. THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nCLOSE TO THE AVN...AVN ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nHERNAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER\r\nWEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     02/2100Z 18.8N 116.8W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.2N 118.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.3N 120.2W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.5N 121.9W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.8N 123.2W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 124.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING OF THE \r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nARE 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 5.5 FROM AFWA...AND 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE \r\nDATA T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 5.0.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL \r\nBE DECREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  A RECENT TRMM \r\nOVERPASS FROM 2238 UTC SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYE WALL MAY BE TRYING \r\nTO FORM...WHICH WOULD COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT \r\nBEGAN ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.  ARRESTED WEAKENING OR RESTRENGTHENING \r\nTYPICALLY OCCURS WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...ALTHOUGH IN \r\nTHIS CASE HERNAN MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO STRENGTHEN \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO ITS EXPECTED PASSING OVER SUB-26C SEA SURFACE \r\nTEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.  TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY \r\nOF RESTRENGTHENING...THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOWED DOWN FOR THE \r\nFIRST 12 HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS INDICATED \r\nBY THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...HOWEVER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nMOSTLY UNCHANGED.  HERNAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR\r\nABOUT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nTHEN NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nINFLUENCED BY A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA\r\nCOAST.  THIS TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF THE NHC GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0300Z 18.9N 117.8W    95 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 119.3W    90 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N 120.8W    75 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N 122.2W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N 124.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES ON A WEAKENING TREND AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYE WALL IS\r\nBECOMING LESS DEFINED WITH TIME.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF AN OUTER EYE WALL FORMING AS SUGGESTED BY A TRMM OVERPASS FROM\r\n0649 UTC.  THIS WOULD COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT\r\nBEGAN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS AGO.  ARRESTED WEAKENING OR\r\nRESTRENGTHENING TYPICALLY OCCURS WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES...ALTHOUGH IN THIS CASE HERNAN MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO ITS EXPECTED PASSING OVER SUB-26C\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.  TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING...THE WEAKENING TREND WILL BE SLOWED\r\nDOWN FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING THEREAFTER\r\nAS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...HOWEVER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nMOSTLY UNCHANGED.  HERNAN WILL MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK FOR ABOUT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF THE NHC GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/0900Z 18.9N 118.7W    90 KTS\r\n12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.3N 120.0W    80 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.6N 121.4W    70 KTS\r\n36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 122.3W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.4N 123.4W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/0600Z 26.3N 123.6W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...AN \r\nEYE IS STILL OBSERVED...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE \r\nOUTFLOW TO THE WEST REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS \r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. HERNAN WILL CONTINUE TO \r\nWEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO HIGHER \r\nSHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nHERNAN IS MOVING 295 DEGREES ABOUT 9 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL SOON \r\nREACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TO \r\nTURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AFTER 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD \r\nBE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN \r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A DISSIPATING \r\nHERNAN OR A WEAK REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME \r\nSOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST OR NORTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THIS AREA \r\nWELL IN ADVANCE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/1500Z 19.3N 119.7W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 123.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 123.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECT OF COOLER WATER. THE EYE IS NO\r\nLONGER CLEARLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLOCATED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND HERNAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHERNAN IS MOVING 295 DEGREES ABOUT 9 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NEAR\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TO\r\nTURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AFTER 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD\r\nBE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A DISSIPATING\r\nHERNAN OR A WEAK REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO BE NEARING THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST OR NORTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THIS AREA\r\nWELL IN ADVANCE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     03/2100Z 19.4N 120.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 121.9W    70 KTS\r\n24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 124.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     05/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT HERNAN CONTINUES TO \r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN.  THE ONCE CLEARLY VISIBLE EYE HAS BECOME \r\nCLOUD-FILLED AND CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED.  DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE 4.0-4.5...WITH AN \r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBER OF 4.5.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 70 KT FOR \r\nTHIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS HERNAN \r\nMOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...AS WELL AS INTO INCREASING \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE \r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HERNAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 72 \r\nHOURS.    \r\n\r\nHERNAN IS MOVING 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS...SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST THEN NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE\r\nADVANCING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS A BIT DIVERGENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...UKMET MODEL...AND SHALLOW AND\r\nMEDIUM-LAYER BAM MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE HERNAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS...WHILE THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL TURNS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH.  DUE TO THE\r\nEXPECTED WEAK AND SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CYCLONE BEYOND 36 HOURS...\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOLUTIONS ARE NOT TOTALLY UNREASONABLE AS THE\r\nSTEERING INFLUENCE FROM THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WOULD BE LESSENED.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...THEN A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT BY 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A WEAK NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW MAY \r\nAPPROACH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST OR NORTHERN BAJA IN \r\nABOUT 5 DAYS...WITH THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLY \r\nSPREADING OVER THIS AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/MOLLEDA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0300Z 19.7N 121.2W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1200Z 20.2N 122.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N 123.7W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N 124.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0000Z 24.5N 124.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0000Z 26.5N 124.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.  TOPS HAVE\r\nCONTINUED TO WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH THE ONLY REMAINING\r\nCONVECTION NOW LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES OF BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 4.0...WITH A 3 HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER OF 4.1.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KT FOR THIS\r\nFORECAST PACKAGE.  THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HERNAN MOVES\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...AS WELL AS INTO INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HERNAN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nHERNAN IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HERNAN NEARS THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND \r\nCOLD SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPILDY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE BY 36 TO 48 \r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCUALTIONS MAY \r\nDECOUPLE SOONER THAN FORECAST...WHICH MAY RESULT IN A REMNANT \r\nNON-CONVECTIVE LOW POSSIBLY BECOMING STATIONARY NEAR THE 48 HOUR \r\nFORECAST POSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/0900Z 20.5N 122.0W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N 123.1W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/0600Z 22.3N 124.0W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     05/1800Z 23.3N 124.6W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/0600Z 24.7N 124.6W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     07/0600Z 26.5N 124.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n\r\nCONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD COOLER \r\nWATERS AND DISSIPATION COULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/10 AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO \r\nCONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY THEN...HERNAN SHOULD BE \r\nA SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LITTLE MOTION OR DRIFTING NORTHWARD. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/1500Z 21.0N 122.5W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N 123.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N 124.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N 125.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     07/1200Z 25.5N 125.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n\r\nHERNAN IS ON A RAPID WEAKENING TREND.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BASICALLY\r\nGONE AND T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS.\r\nHERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/8.  BECAUSE HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM...IT WILL SOON BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH IN FACT\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE WEAK.  HERNAN SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE ALSO CHANGED AND NO LONGER\r\nBRING HERNAN NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD.  THEY NOW FORECAST A SLOW\r\nMOTION BETWEEN WEST AND SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     04/2100Z 21.3N 123.1W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     05/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     06/1800Z 23.5N 126.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":24,"Date":"2002-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH CONVECTION LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30\r\nKTS FROM TAFB AND 45 KNOTS FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 40 KNOTS IS COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES.  HERNAN IS MOVING\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315/8.  HERNAN \r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND SLOW DOWN WHEN IT BECOMES A \r\nMORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW \r\nAT THAT TIME WILL BE THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT \r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET GLOBAL \r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0300Z 22.0N 123.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1200Z 22.9N 124.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.5N 125.2W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1200Z 23.7N 125.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     07/0000Z 23.8N 126.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     08/0000Z 24.0N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":25,"Date":"2002-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH AN OVERALL DECREASE IN CLOUD TOP \r\nTEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...SOME NEW BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE \r\nFORMED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES ARE 30 KTS FROM TAFB AND 35 KNOTS FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO 35 KNOTS. \r\nDESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/5.  HERNAN HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW \r\nITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM.   \r\nTHE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW IS NOW THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE \r\nSOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH \r\nTHE UKMET GLOBAL MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE AVN..NOGAPS...AND GFDL \r\nWHICH INDICATE A DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST. \r\n\r\nHERNAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT REMAINS OVER \r\nRELATIVELY COOL WATER. HOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN AND THE WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM IN A LESS \r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nIS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH DISSIPATES \r\nHERNAN BY 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF HERNAN TAKES A MORE SOUTHWARD \r\nTRACK AS INDICATED BY THE AVN...NOGAPS...AND GFDL MODELS...THEN  \r\nWEAKENING WILL NOT BE AS FAST AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/RHOME\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/0900Z 22.1N 123.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/0600Z 22.8N 125.1W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     06/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     07/0600Z 23.0N 126.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hernan","Adv":26,"Date":"2002-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n\r\n\r\nHERNAN HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING AT 315/03.  IT \r\nAPPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A COL BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONES TO THE \r\nEAST AND WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH...WHICH DID NOT \r\nDIG DEEP ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO ADVECT HERNAN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST \r\nAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE RESEMBLES THE SQUASHED SPIDER \r\nPATTERN THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY \r\nOVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PROBLEM IN THIS SITUATION IT SEEMS \r\nTHAT MORE WEIGHT SHOULD BE PUT ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS FORECAST... \r\nWHICH SLOWLY MOVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nAS HERNAN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER COLD WATER IT\r\nCONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KTS\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...WHICH MAKES\r\nHERNAN A DEPRESSION.  HERNAN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR \r\nSO.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/1500Z 22.2N 124.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0000Z 22.4N 124.2W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1200Z 22.8N 124.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     07/0000Z 23.1N 124.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     07/1200Z 23.4N 125.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hernan","Adv":27,"Date":"2002-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT HERNANS \r\nCENTER WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER INFRARED \r\nESTIMATES.  THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/06...SLIGHTLY FASTER \r\nTHAN BEFORE.  HOWEVER...HERNAN IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE CLIPPER \r\nFORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE MODEL USED FOR THE FINAL 36 HOUR \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS.  ALL OTHER TRACK MODELS DIVERGE IN DIFFERENT \r\nDIRECTIONS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE AVN AND NOGAPS HEAD SOUTHWEST...THE \r\nGFDL AND COMPOSITES GO SOUTHEAST...THE REST HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD \r\nTHE MAINLAND.\r\n\r\nONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT TO THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 25\r\nKTS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\n30 KTS.  AS HERNAN MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER COLD WATER IT\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 23.1N 124.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 23.6N 124.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 24.3N 125.4W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hernan","Adv":28,"Date":"2002-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE UPPER-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION HAS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS \r\nDISPLACED ABOUT 120 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM TAFB. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER \r\nHAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE \r\nDOMINANT STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS WEAK WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME SLOW \r\nERRATIC MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE EAST OF HERNAN \r\nWHICH SHOULD HELP TO NUDGE THE DYING CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TRACK. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND \r\nIS CLOSE TO THE AVN AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nSINCE HERNAN HAS BEEN SHEARED APART AND IS OVER SUB-22C SST WATER... \r\nRAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A \r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED \r\nTO HOLD THE INTENSITY UP A LITTLE IN CASE A SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST \r\nOCCURS LATER TONIGHT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 23.5N 124.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N 124.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 24.2N 125.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 23.7N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hernan","Adv":29,"Date":"2002-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES \r\nOVER HERNAN AND THE CIRCULATION HAS RAPIDLY BECOME SHALLOW. THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB. DESPITE BEING A WEAKENING SYSTEM...THE \r\nEFFECTS OF HERNAN ARE STILL BEING FELT AS FAR AWAY AS SOUTHERN \r\nCALIFORNIA IN THE FORM OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND LARGE OCEAN SWELLS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/06. NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE\r\nDOMINANT STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THE NHC \r\nSUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. PERSISTENCE IS USED \r\nFOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO \r\nTHE EAST OF HERNAN WHICH SHOULD HELP TO NUDGE THE DYING CYCLONE ON A \r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ONLY \r\nA LITTLE MORE NORTH. \r\n \r\nSINCE HERNAN IS NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND OVER SUB-22C SST WATER...\r\nRAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY \r\nBECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/RHOME\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 24.1N 124.3W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 24.8N 124.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 25.0N 125.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hernan","Adv":30,"Date":"2002-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nHERNAN IS A NEARLY STATIONARY SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITHOUT DEEP \r\nCONVECTION.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 23.5N 124.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 23.5N 124.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N 124.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES \r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA HAS BECOME BETTER \r\nORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY ARE 25 \r\nAND 30 KTS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE SYSTEM HAS DEEP \r\nCONVECTION WITH OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A SMALL BUT WELL \r\nDEFINED CIRCULATION.  BASED UPON THIS THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/12.  THE CURRENT SUITE OF MODELS\r\nAVAILABLE CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION\r\nWITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATER FORECAST\r\nPERIODS.  IF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK PREVAILS WATCHES AND WARNING\r\nMAY NOT BE NECESSARY FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...\r\nINTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST LARGELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE SYSTEM \r\nINCREASES TO A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER \r\nCOLDER SSTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     05/2100Z 19.2N 107.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/0600Z 20.2N 109.3W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     06/1800Z 21.2N 111.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/0600Z 22.3N 112.5W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 113.9W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     08/1800Z 26.0N 116.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS \r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH \r\nCLOUD TOPS TO -75C HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND IMPROVING TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08...BASED ON A 12-HOUR MOTION. \r\nHOWEVER...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS THE MOTION WAS CLOSER TO 325 \r\nDEGREES. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD 11-E...SO NO \r\nVORTEX TRACKER DATA IS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND BY THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE MAINLY \r\nIN A NORTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S. WEST AND \r\nSOUTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO CONSISTENT \r\nWITH THE THREE BETA-ADVECTION MODELS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL \r\nMODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST \r\nOF THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION AND THE FACT THAT IT OVER NEAR-30C SSTS.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL SIZE AND VERY\r\nWARM WATER WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL 36 HOURS WHEN THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS.  THEREFORE...IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nIN 36 HOURS.  FOR THIS REASON...ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARUS ON THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 36 HOURS.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO \r\nWILL BE CLOSELY SCRUTINIZED FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nNOTE: PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED EVERY 3 HOURS AND CAN BE \r\nFOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0300Z 19.7N 108.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0000Z 21.8N 110.7W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.9N 112.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0000Z 24.2N 113.3W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0000Z 27.0N 115.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.\r\nA SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nWHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS AT OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH BUT ONLY FAIR TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE AVN MODEL...IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE AVN\r\nAPPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS IT UNCHARACTERISTICALLY TAKES THE\r\nCYCLONE ALMOST DUE WEST FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.  THIS MAY BE DUE\r\nTO THE FACT THAT TD 11-E IS VERY SMALL AND THE AVN DOES NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN IT ENOUGH TO EVEN PRODUCE A CLOSED STANDARD ISOBAR AROUND\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THE AVN SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTEADY NORTHWEST MOTION OF 8 TO 10 KT AND THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING\r\nIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS JUST A TAD TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFDL AND UKMET-NOGAPS MODELS.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHE GFDL IS THE RIGHTMOST AND SLOWEST OF ALL THE MODELS AND IT\r\nBRINGS THE CENTER VERY CLOSE TO CABO SAN LAZARO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION AND THE FACT THAT IT OVER 29C SSTS.  A SMALL CDO \r\nHAS ALREADY FORMED OVER THE CENTER AND A 06/0406Z TRMM OVERPASS \r\nINDICATED A WELL-DEFINED 10 NMI DIAMETER MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION THAT CLOSELY RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. THE ONLY THING \r\nTHAT PRECLUDES FORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS THE PRESENCE OF \r\nDRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 NMI \r\nWEST OF THE CENTER. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT THE \r\nDRY AIR WILL GET ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM...I HAVE KEPT THE \r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.  HOWEVER...THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AT 24 AND 36 \r\nHOURS...AND ALSO AT 72 HOURS. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING \r\nBY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING GIVEN THAT THE \r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 26C OR HIGHER SSTS AND UNDER LESS \r\nTHAN 10 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO BAJA CALIFORNIA \r\nAND THE POSSIBILITY OF THIS SYSTEM REACHING MINIMAL HURRICANE \r\nSTRENGTH...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM \r\nWATCH WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CABO \r\nSAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/0900Z 20.5N 109.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     06/1800Z 21.3N 110.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/0600Z 22.6N 111.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     07/1800Z 23.8N 112.7W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/0600Z 25.2N 113.7W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/0600Z 28.0N 115.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  A PEEK AT THE FIRST VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MOTION MIGHT BE MORE LIKE 290 DEGREES\r\nHEADING.  THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...GFDL...AVN...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS...SHOW RATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND A SLOW GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO CONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE.  ONLY\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL AND THE NOGAPS AFTER 48 HOURS ARE A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 35 KNOTS\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KNOTS.  OUR BEST\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS MODEL...BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 42\r\nKNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND OVER COLDER SST.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nINCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 60 KNOTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW \r\nFOR 50 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  ALSO OUT OF RESPECT \r\nFOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA WILL BE RETAINED FOR A WHILE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/1500Z 20.8N 110.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.6N 111.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1200Z 22.6N 112.3W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0000Z 23.3N 113.2W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1200Z 26.0N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10.  WITH A DEEP LAYER MEAN \r\nTROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER NORTHERN \r\nMEXICO...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT \r\nTURNING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA \r\nIN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND \r\nIS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 45 \r\nKNOTS FROM SAB.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS FOR \r\nTHIS ADVISORY.   THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND SPEED INCREASING \r\nTO 41 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER \r\nAND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS \r\nMODEL EXCEPT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 50 \r\nKNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING...BUT \r\nTHE LAST FEW SATELLITE  IMAGES SHOW A SMALL COLD SYMMETRIC CDO \r\nFEATURE.  IF THIS FEATURE PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD ACTUALLY \r\nSTRENGTHEN TO A STORM.  THE SCENARIO OF STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE \r\nIS NOT VERY LIKELY AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA \r\nCALIFORNIA IS DISCONTINUED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     06/2100Z 21.5N 111.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/0600Z 22.3N 111.9W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 112.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.3N 114.2W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     09/1800Z 29.0N 115.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER HAS REFORMED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315/7.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND CROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT\r\n72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL\r\nMODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 45\r\nKNOTS FROM SAB...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30\r\nKNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nCLOSELY...WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION ONLY UP TO 36 KNOTS IN 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH\r\nCOOLER SST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0300Z 21.9N 111.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1200Z 22.7N 112.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0000Z 23.8N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0000Z 26.4N 114.3W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0000Z 29.1N 115.1W    20 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS \r\nSLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER MICROWAVE \r\nDATA INDICATED A TIGHT CIRCULATION WHEN THE SYSTEM PROBABLY PEAKED \r\nBETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY \r\nSINCE THEN. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS \r\nADVISORY BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT...35 KT... \r\nAND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE CENTRAL \r\nPRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1006 MB BASED ON SHIP REPORTS LOCATED \r\nNORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTING 1007.2 MB AT 00Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/03. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE \r\nCENTER POSITION...I DID NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OTHER THAN TO SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD \r\nSPEED. THE OUTER CIRCULATION IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...BUT THE \r\nINNER-CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS POORLY DEFINED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE \r\nCYCLONE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MORE \r\nNORTHWARD AFTER THAT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES \r\nTHE SYSTEM WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN \r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALBEIT SLOWER...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE \r\nOF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL SUITE.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MISSED ITS OPPORTUNITY FOR \r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. WHILE SSTS ARE WARM...AROUND \r\n28C...AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...AROUND 5 KT...THE PRESENCE OF DRY \r\nMID-LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE IS THE LIKELY CULPRIT THAT HAS \r\nCAUSED THE CONVECTION TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN. THERE MAY BE \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT WILL SPIN UP THE INNER-CORE \r\nWIND FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY JUST \r\nRESULT IN THE MORE DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED CAUSING THE CONVECTION TO \r\nWEAKEN AGAIN. HOWEVER...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL \r\nAND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS \r\nFOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...GRADUAL \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH \r\nCOOLER WATER. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN THE \r\nDEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE LATER TODAY LIKE THE GFDL MODEL IS \r\nFORECASTING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BERG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/0900Z 21.7N 111.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     07/1800Z 22.3N 112.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/0600Z 23.5N 112.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     08/1800Z 24.8N 113.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/0600Z 26.2N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/0600Z 29.0N 115.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE WEAKER THAT YESTERDAY AS INDICATED BY \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWINDS HAVE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND MOST OF THE \r\nMODELS WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT BEST \r\nESTIMATES ARE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW TRACK \r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD COOLER WATER IS FORECAST FOR THE \r\nNEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE STRENGHTENING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...THE TROPICAL STORM \r\nWATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/NELSON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/1500Z 21.5N 112.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     08/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N 113.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.5N 114.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     10/1200Z 26.5N 114.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND EASY TO LOCATE...IT\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS UNDER LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS...AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...INDICATE A SLOW MOSTLY\r\nNORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS FOR SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BECOMING STATIONARY\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS.  A TRACK FORECAST OF STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 72 \r\nHOURS WOULD PROBABLY BE JUST AS GOOD.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REINTENSIFICATION.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nDISSIPATING AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     07/2100Z 20.7N 113.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.3N 113.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N 113.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2002\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN...NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/7\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON\r\nTHE SPEED.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH\r\nSHOWS A FASTER MOTION THAN NOGAPS AND UKMET....AND GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nFORWARD SPEED...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG BUT FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION THAN BEGAN NEAR 20 UTC IS NOW\r\nDISSIPATING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SST \r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0300Z 21.4N 113.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.1N 113.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.6N 113.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 113.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.3N 113.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/0000Z 23.8N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 08 2002\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...PRIMARILY \r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE OVERALL AREA OF THIS \r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER SMALL.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 \r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER A \r\nSIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT...TOWARD COOLER WATERS...DISSIPATION IS \r\nLIKELY IN A DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS TO \r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...IN THE VICINITY OF \r\n120W...THIS WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL WINDS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW \r\nWILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION...SO A RATHER \r\nSLOW MOTION IS FORECAST ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD \r\nHEADING.  THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE...BUT SLOWER THAN MOST...OF \r\nTHE TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/0900Z 21.8N 113.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     08/1800Z 22.6N 114.0W    20 KTS\r\n24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     09/1800Z 23.7N 114.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/0600Z 24.2N 114.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N 114.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 08 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS TOTALLY GONE.  THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN \r\nREDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH A MID LEVEL \r\nRIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A TROUGHT TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     08/1500Z 22.1N 113.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.6N 114.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     09/1200Z 23.2N 114.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.6N 114.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.1N 114.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     11/1200Z 24.5N 114.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 270 MILES SOUTH OF \r\nMANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB...AND A PRESSURE \r\nOF 1008 MB FROM SHIP WTEE AT 15/0100Z WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 180 \r\nNMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. ALSO...A 15/0110Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS  \r\nINDICATED SEVERAL NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED 25 KT WIND VALUES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO \r\nTRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG \r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE \r\nTO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED 3 BAM MDOELS AND THE 00Z \r\nAVN FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER \r\n36 HOURS. SHIPS ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 56 KT IN 60 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN QUICKLY WEAKENS IT AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nOUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE LBAR MODEL WHICH QUICKLY RECURVES THE \r\nDEPRESSION NORTHWARD OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND UNDER INCREASING \r\nSHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS. BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE \r\nWESTWARD AND REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER UPPRR-LEVEL RIDGING \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A HIGHER INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN \r\nORDER AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 15.4N 104.5W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.6N 106.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N 108.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 110.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS APPROXIMATELY 285/09...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nPOSITION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN...HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nEXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS ATTEMPTING TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONVECTION\r\nIS SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS\r\nBASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM TAFB\r\nAND AFWA...AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...WITH A PEAK OF ONLY 50 KNOTS AT 72 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHIPS IS UNDERESTIMATING THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION RATE...WHICH HAS OCCURRED WITH OTHER EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nSYSTEMS THIS YEAR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE\r\nSYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 15.4N 104.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.8N 106.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 108.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 17.3N 111.1W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 18.2N 113.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W    70 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO PARTIALLY REVEAL A LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...AND INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/12.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ALSO A BIT FASTER BUT IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK...I.E. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nAT 25 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 30 KNOTS FROM SAB.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  CONDITIONS\r\nCONTINUE TO APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... \r\nAND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST IS NEAR 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN SHIPS BUT \r\nPEAKS AT A LOWER INTENSITY AS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... \r\nSINCE THE FORECAST TRACK NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER COLDER WATERS A \r\nBIT SOONER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 15.8N 106.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.3N 108.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N 110.5W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 112.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N 115.1W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-16 00:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n \r\nSURFACE REPORTS FROM MANZANILLO AND A NEARBY SHIP INDICATE THAT THE \r\nWIND SPEED IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 \r\nKNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ON THE \r\nBASIS OF THESE REPORTS.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED TO ISSUE \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO \r\nCARDENAS TO PUERTO VALLARTA.  \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT \r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.  THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO REACH \r\n65 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 107.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 111.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.7N 113.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W    65 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002\r\n \r\nISELLE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDS FORMING AROUND \r\nTHE CENTER WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SHIP D5BC RECENTLY \r\nPASSED THROUGH A STRONG BAND AND REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 36 \r\nKNOTS AND 1003.5 MB NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE.  BASED ON THIS \r\nOBSERVATION TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE \r\nSTORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.  \r\n\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A BIT FARTHER TO THE \r\nNORTH AND IS CONFIRMED BY A 2344Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE BEST \r\nESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS \r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nREMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR \r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME AS THE CURRENT FORECAST \r\nTRACK KEEPS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE. \r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING MODERATELY SHEARED FROM THE EAST BUT \r\nUPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.  THESE \r\nWINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS THOUGH INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE HALTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS \r\nWHEN THE CYCLONE TRAVELS OVER COOLER SSTS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 17.2N 107.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.9N 109.0W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.9N 111.4W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N 113.8W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W    65 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2002\r\n\r\nISELLE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH COOLING\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS AND SOMEWHAT INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING.  HOW\r\nORGANIZED IS SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION...AS A 0408Z SSM/I OVERPASS\r\nHINTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MIGHT BE PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE\r\nEASTERN END OF THE BAND RATHER THAN WRAPPED INTO IT.  SUBSEQUENT\r\nIR IMAGERY DOES NOT CONCLUSIVELY SHOW AN EXPOSED CENTER...SO IT\r\nIS BELIEVED THAT THE CENTER IS NOW BETTER INVOLVED WITH THE \r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION...WHICH IS EAST\r\nOF ALL THE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ISELLE...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR 36-48 HR\r\nBEFORE A WEAKNESS OR BREAK DEVELOPS.  THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS\r\nISELLE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED\r\nBY SOME MORE NORTHWARD TURN.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT\r\nON WHETHER SUCH A TURN WILL OCCUR...WITH EXTREMES RANGING BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDN CURVING ISELLE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nTHE BAMM AND BAMS BENDING IT WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HR AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE AVN.\r\n \r\nSOME EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nPERHAPS 12 HR OR SO BEFORE IT DIMINISHES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTHUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME...WITH FASTER\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE THEREAFTER.  BY 48 HR...ISELLE SHOULD\r\nBE OVER COLD ENOUGH WATER TO CHANGE STRENGTHENING TO WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST...\r\nTHERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nMAY OCCUR IN SQUALLS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO\r\nCORRIENTES.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF THE CENTER IS CLOSER\r\nTO LAND THAN CURRENTLY ANALYZED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 17.6N 108.6W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.4N 110.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.4N 112.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.4N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.3N 116.8W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2002\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE ON INFRARED \r\nIMAGERY...AND IS BASED ESSENTIALLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF WHERE WE ARE \r\nCARRYING IT.  THE SYSTEM IS GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME \r\nCURVATURE...AND APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING...BUT STILL IS UNDER \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0...SO THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISELLE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE \r\nPARTICULARLY STRONG AND IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN \r\nFURTHER. THEREFORE I EXPECT THE FORWARD SPEED TO GRADUALLY SLOW \r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE \r\nAPPEARS TO BREAK DOWN ENTIRELY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  AFTER \r\nTHAT...THE AMOUNT OF RECURVATURE IS LIKELY TO DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF \r\nA SYSTEM IS PRESENT WHEN ISELLE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nAS ISELLE GAINS LATITUDE IT SHOULD GET OUT FROM UNDER THE EASTERLY \r\nSHEAR...AND THE WATER SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT 36 \r\nHOURS OR SO TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW \r\nOF OPPORTUNITY IS NOT LARGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 18.3N 109.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N 113.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.2N 114.7W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 22.2N 116.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 16 2002\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T3.5...55 KT...A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS ARE NOT THAT HIGH.  THE\r\nPASS SHOWED NOTHING HIGHER THAN 40 KT...AND SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 45 KT.  AS FEARED EARLIER...VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT\r\nISELLE WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY GAVE IT CREDIT\r\nFOR.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NOT VERY CERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 300/14.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE AVN\r\nAND UKMET NOW RECURVING ISELLE INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH A BREAK\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  OUR CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE \r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HOWEVER WE ARE STILL TO THE LEFT OF \r\nTHE AVN/UKMET/GFDL CLUSTER.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS \r\nREASON FOR THE GUIDANCE SHIFT...AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL FIELDS LOOK \r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR...AT LEAST IN THE LAST TWO AVN RUNS.  AS A \r\nRESULT...WE ARE NOT BITING COMPLETELY ON THIS SHIFT JUST YET.  \r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST... \r\nWHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  WHILE CURRENTLY UNDER \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR...THIS IS FORECAST TO RELAX AS THE STORM MOVES \r\nUNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 22 NORTH.  THE \r\nRECURVATURE LONGITUDE WILL ALSO BE KEY IN DETERMINING THE SSTS UNDER \r\nTHE CYCLONE.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...ISELLE WILL BE PASSING \r\nTHE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  A SHARPER RECURVATURE WOULD \r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER LONGER. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 19.8N 111.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.6N 112.5W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 21.6N 114.0W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N 115.1W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     19/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 16 2002\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST REGIONS OF THE\r\nSTORM.  IN ADDITION...RECENT INFRARED PICTURES INDICATE A LARGE\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN\r\nINTENSITY FROM 45 TO 55 KTS AND A COMPROMISE OF 50 KTS IS CHOSEN\r\nDUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION.\r\n\r\nISELLE IS MOVING NORTHWEST ...305/14 KT... TOWARD A BREAK IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DUE TO A TROUGH IN THE MID-LATITUDES OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE DEEP\r\nENOUGH TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE BUT SHOULD SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION\r\nCONSIDERABLY TOMORROW.  THE TRACK IS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE BIGGEST CHANGE BEING A \r\nSLOWER TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nCONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE IN AN \r\nENVIRONMENT OF WEAK STEERING.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A\r\nHURRICANE AS THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX\r\nTOMORROW AND BECOME WESTERLY BY 36 HOURS.  THIS WEAKENING OF THE \r\nSHEAR IS COINCIDENT WITH THE CYCLONE BEING OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26-27C \r\nWHICH MAY ALLOW THE STORM TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  IT IS WORTH NOTING \r\nTHAT A SHARPER RECURVATURE WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER \r\nLONGER AND...CONSEQUENTLY...A BIT STRONGER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0300Z 20.4N 112.1W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 113.6W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0000Z 22.2N 114.6W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N 116.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.7N 116.7W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n\r\nISELLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF COLD CONVECTIVE\r\nTOPS.  HOWEVER...AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0323Z AND SHORTWAVE IR\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE VALUES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nSHOWED 40 KT WINDS AT THE MOST...SO 55 KT MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nISELLE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS\r\nWEAKENING AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN FURTHER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALLOWING ISELLE TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OR POSSIBLY EVEN NORTHEASTWARD.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A RATHER LARGE SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE GFDN RECURVES ISELLE TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL SHOWS A NORTHERLY MOTION.  THE AVN TURNS THE STORM NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE BAMM...BAMS...AND NHC91 GO NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS ARE SCATTERED IN BETWEEN.  SINCE THE TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BYPASS ISELLE AND SOME RIDGING IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN TO THE EAST...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN.\r\n\r\nISELLE SHOWS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR\r\nTO POOR OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  VERTICAL SHEAR HAS\r\nDECREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HR...SO UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE STORM IS STARTING TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATERS ...AND TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR IT TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR\r\nISELLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN.\r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL AND 12 HR FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED SOMEWHAT\r\nBASED ON THE SSM/I AND QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/0900Z 21.0N 113.3W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/1800Z 21.9N 114.7W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.6N 115.4W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.2N 116.0W    65 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/0600Z 23.8N 116.5W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/0600Z 25.0N 117.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n \r\nDURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY INDICATES A GREATER AMOUNT OF\r\nCOLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM SHOWS LITTLE\r\nOR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.   WE RECEIVED ONE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE WILL MAINTAIN\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nVERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...IR/WV IMAGERY SUGGEST MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE AREA.  ASSUMING THE SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION...A NARROW WINDOW STILL EXISTS FOR ISELLE TO\r\nREACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MOVES\r\nISELLE OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION...305/11 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE\r\nCENTER POSITION.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISELLE\r\nIS WEAKENING...SO ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/1500Z 21.7N 114.0W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0000Z 22.3N 115.0W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.8N 115.7W    65 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N 116.2W    60 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N 116.5W    55 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n \r\nAFTER A BIT OF A STRUGGLE THIS MORNING DETERMINING THE CENTER\r\nPOSITION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ISELLE IS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  PERIODIC\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO OCCUR...HOWEVER BANDING FEATURES\r\nARE STILL NOT EVIDENT.  THE STORM HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK\r\nINTENSITY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH FOR A DAY OR\r\nSO. LATER IN THE PERIOD COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n \r\nISELLE CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n310/09.  THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND FURTHER SLOWING IS FORECAST AS STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WEAKEN OVER TIME.  SOME OF TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE\r\nBEGINNING TO SHOW RATHER ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     17/2100Z 21.8N 114.1W    60 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N 114.6W    60 KTS\r\n24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.7N 115.1W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.3N 115.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 116.5W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2002\r\n \r\nISELLE IS NOT LOOKING VERY HEALTHY ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME DRY AIR IS PROBABLY BEING \r\nENTRAINED INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nREMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT \r\nWARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/04. THIS MOTION IS BASED ON AN \r\nEXPECTED SLOW NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN 300/06. AFTER 12 HOURS... \r\nMOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A RETURN TO A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWEST OR \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAY NOT BE \r\nSTRONG ENOUGH FOR A WEAKENING ISELLE TO PASS THROUGH AND MOVE TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST LIKE THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THERE IS \r\nALSO MUCH MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE THUS CYCLE WITH \r\nTRACKS IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH. AS SUCH...I HAVE KEPT \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED SLOW AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE AVN-NOGAPS-UKMET CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nISELLE HAS PROBABLY PEAKED UNLESS A BRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION \r\nRETURNS LATER TONIGHT DURING THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. OUTFLOW \r\nIS GOOD AND SSTS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL HURRICANE LIKE \r\nTHR SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING. HOWEVER...THE \r\nAFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY \r\nSUSTAINED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING...EVEN THOUGH THE \r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS OR SO. \r\nBY 36 HOURS... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SSTS BELOW 25C \r\nSHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING LIKE SHIPS IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0300Z 22.0N 114.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1200Z 22.4N 115.1W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0000Z 23.1N 115.2W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.4N 115.7W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0000Z 23.8N 116.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nISELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED BY LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nWHICH SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...WITH TAFB AND SAB AT 3.5...55 KT...AND AFWA AT 2.0...30 KT.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS FORECAST\r\nPACKAGE.  ISELLE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST AS SHIPS IS INDICATING.\r\nMARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF SHEAR MAY\r\nDELAY WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER BY 36 HOURS\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH DISSIPATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/04...BASED ON AN EXPECTED SLOW \r\nNORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE PAST 12 HOUR \r\nMOTION HAS BEEN 300/4.  ISELLE APPEARS TO BE STUCK IN A WEAK \r\nSTEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND \r\nTHIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nAS OFTEN OCCURS IN WEAK STEERING PATTERNS...NHC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE \r\nIS QUITE DIVERGENT.  CLIPPER AND THE BAM MODELS KEEP ISELLE ON A \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...WHILE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL \r\nMODELS TURN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR \r\nSO...THEN BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE \r\nFORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION \r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATTER \r\nPART OF THE FORECAST.  THIS IS TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL-UKMET-NOGAPS \r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...BUT CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL AND WELL TO THE \r\nRIGHT OF THE BAM MODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/0900Z 22.3N 114.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     18/1800Z 22.8N 115.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     19/1800Z 24.2N 115.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/0600Z 25.0N 115.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 116.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATES THAT ISELLE IS VOID OF ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  ALL DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE BASED ON THE MODEL\r\nEXPECTED TREND (MET) SINCE DATA T-NUMBERS COULD NOT BE ESTIMATED.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nSINCE OCCASIONAL FLARE-UPS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER ISELLE IS LIKELY TO BE IN A DISSIPATING STATE IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nMID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD LAYERS ARE OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT\r\nIT DOES APPEAR THE CENTER MAY BE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS POSITION.  STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCENTER POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ISELLE\r\nCONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  THE WEAK STEERING REGIME\r\nIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST U.S. MOVES EASTWARD.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...ISELLE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE ONLY \r\nADJUSTMENTS WERE TO THE INITIAL WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON \r\nNEARBY 12Z SHIP REPORTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/1500Z 22.5N 114.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1200Z 23.7N 114.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 116.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n\r\nAS PREVIOUSLY SUSPECTED...VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  ISELLE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...\r\n025/04...AND STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE\r\nAREA.  NONETHELESS ISELLE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE\r\nSHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE JUST A FEW ISOLATED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE \r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEMS CIRCULATION...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO \r\nASSIGN A DATA T-NUMBER FOR INTENSITY ESTIMATION VIA THE DVORAK \r\nTECHNIQUE.  ASSUMING A NORMAL RATE OF SPINDOWN...THE CURRENT \r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER 12 H...IN CASE A BURST OF DEEP \r\nCONVECTION OCCURS TONIGHT.  HOWEVER WE EXPECT ISELLE TO BE \r\nDISSIPATING IN 36 H AND TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS...OR SOONER. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     18/2100Z 22.7N 113.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/0600Z 23.3N 113.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N 114.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/0600Z 24.5N 114.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 114.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2002\r\n \r\nA SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE WEST \r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 4 HOURS. THEREFORE...ISELLE \r\nIS MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO \r\nSUPPORTED BY A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/03.  ISELLE HAS BEEN DRIFTING\r\nSLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\nNOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED...THE CIRCULATION WILL\r\nLIKELY BECOME MORE VERTICALLY DEEP AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD BY\r\nA WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS SEEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  JUST\r\nHOW FAR EAST IS THE BIG QUESTION.  THE GFDL TAKES ISELLE EASTWARD TO\r\nNEAR THE EXTREME WESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN MOVES IT NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATING IT IN 60 HOURS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS DIVERGENT ABOUT A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION.  SINCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AT LEAST 10\r\nKT WESTERLY WINDS TO THE WEST OF ISELLE...THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION PERSISTS OVERNIGHT...THEN THE TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE\r\nSHIFTED EVEN FARTHER TO THE EAST ON THE NEXT ADVISORY AND TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST\r\nBAJA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES ISELLE SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH 12\r\nHOURS AND THEN NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT.  THIS IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE AVN-UKMET CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL-NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS...AND \r\nKEEPS ISELLE AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION IS \r\nLIKELY THE RESULT OF A NARROW BAND OF MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE \r\nADVECTING ACROSS THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. SST ANALYSES INDICATE \r\nTHAT WARMER WATER...UP TO 28C...LIES BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE \r\nBAJA PENINSULA. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT SO \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE MOISTURE BAND \r\nTO THE WEST IS VERY NARROW...SO I HAVE DECIDED TO WAIT UNTIL THE \r\nNEXT ADVISORY TO SEE IF AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY IS REQUIRED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0300Z 22.8N 113.6W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1200Z 22.9N 113.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0000Z 23.3N 113.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 114.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     22/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":18,"Date":"2002-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nISELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA \r\nIN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/4.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW NORTHEAST MOTION FOR 12-24 \r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHWEST \r\nTHROUGH DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE \r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND STEERS ISELLE AWAY \r\nFROM THE BAJA COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE \r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GUNS AND \r\nGUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ISELLE TO ABOUT \r\n60 NMI FROM CABO SAN LAZARO IN 12-24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING AWAY FROM \r\nTHE COAST BY THE TIME OF DISSIPATION.  \r\n\r\nTHE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WHICH FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF \r\nISELLE LATE YESTERDAY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF \r\nHOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB...30 KT FROM \r\nTAFB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT \r\n35 KT AS THERE IS STILL A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nCENTER.  WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE BAJA COAST AND LIGHT \r\nSHEAR SHOULD MAINTAIN ISELLE AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR \r\nABOUT 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATER AND \r\nINCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO \r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND MAKES ITS \r\nCLOSEST APPROACH TO LAND.  ISELLE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DISSIPATING \r\nIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/0900Z 23.2N 113.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N 112.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/0600Z 24.1N 113.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     20/1800Z 24.6N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     22/0600Z 26.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":19,"Date":"2002-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nISELLE IS CLINGING TO LIFE.  LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nCONVECTION STILL REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB. SINCE\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS NOT DISSIPATED YET...ISELLE WILL REMAIN A\r\nTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT.  THE WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL\r\nALLOW THE STORM TO DRIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS. BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH AN\r\nMID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF ISELLE.  IF\r\nTHIS LOW DOES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...IT SHOULD ALLOW ISELLE TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN ITS DISSIPATING STAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/1500Z 23.7N 112.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0000Z 24.3N 112.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     20/1200Z 24.8N 113.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     21/0000Z 25.1N 114.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     21/1200Z 25.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":20,"Date":"2002-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n \r\nSEVERAL SHIPS REPORTED FROM NEAR THE CENTER OF ISELLE AT 18Z...\r\nINCLUDING ONE WITH 22 METERS PER SECOND...43 KT...AND 5 FT SEAS. \r\nTHE WINDS LOOK SUSPECT GIVEN THE LOW SEAS HEIGHTS AND THE OTHER\r\nTWO SHIPS REPORTING 15 AND 10 KT RESPECTIVELY.  A RECENT SSM/I\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  BASED ON ALL THIS...\r\nISELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 1004 MB IS BASED ON THE SHIP REPORTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/5.  ISELLE REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW ENVIRONMENT...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING AN UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  GUIDANCE IS SPLIT\r\nINTO TWO CAMPS...WITH A GROUP INCLUDING CLIPER...LBAR...NHC91...\r\nAND BAMD FORECASTING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND A SECOND GROUP...\r\nINCLUDING THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GDFL...TURNING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND CALL FOR A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12 HR.\r\n \r\nWHILE ISELLE IS STILL PRODUCING CONVECTION...THERE IS VERY LITTLE\r\nORGANIZATION TO IT DUE TO SHEAR BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.  WHILE\r\nISELLE IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A FEW MORE BURST OF DISORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION AFTER 36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     19/2100Z 24.0N 112.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/0600Z 24.4N 112.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 112.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     21/0600Z 25.6N 113.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":21,"Date":"2002-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2002\r\n\r\nISELLE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH DVORAK INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM SAB/AFWA AND 25 KT FROM TAFB.  THE CYCLONE \r\nIS LOOKING VERY RAGGED ON SATELLITE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL \r\nBE DECREASED TO 25 KT.  NOTE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS \r\nBASED ON A RELIABLE 1004 MB SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN AND THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION IS 345/4.  STEERING WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW \r\nDEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS \r\nSYSTEM...GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A TURN \r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AFTER 12 HR.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR ISELLE AND IS CONFINED TO A \r\nSMALL AREA SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. WHILE A FEW MORE BURSTS OF \r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE LIKELY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO \r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION AFTER 36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BURR/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0300Z 24.3N 112.7W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1200Z 24.8N 112.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     21/0000Z 25.3N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     21/1200Z 25.7N 114.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":22,"Date":"2002-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n \r\nISELLE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nWITH SATELLITE FIXES HAVING A VERY LARGE SPREAD.  THE CURRENT \r\nPOSITION IS BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AN EXTRAPOLATION \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE \r\nEXTREME WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT \r\nWINDS. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 25 KT.\r\n\r\nIT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 330/4. THE STEERING \r\nWILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO THE \r\nWEST OF THE CYCLONE. GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY TURN THE CYCLONE \r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS AS WELL \r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nA SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION \r\nCENTER.  WHILE A COUPLE MORE BURSTS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE \r\nLIKELY...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...FINALLY \r\nDISSIPATING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/0900Z 24.7N 112.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     20/1800Z 25.1N 113.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     21/0600Z 25.6N 114.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N 114.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":23,"Date":"2002-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 20 2002\r\n\r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISELLE CONTINUES AS\r\nA BROAD SWIRL OF STRATUS CLOUDS.  WHILE SOME PUFFS OF CONVECTION\r\nARE OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...THESE ARE MORE DUE\r\nTO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ISELLE THAN TO ISELLE\r\nITSELF.  A 0451Z SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE 25 KT\r\nAT THE MOST AT THAT TIME.  BASED ON THIS...ISELLE IS WEAKENING TO\r\nA LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER SEEMS TO BE MOVING 340/4...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL TOTAL DISSIPATION IN 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     20/1500Z 25.1N 113.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     21/0000Z 25.5N 113.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     21/1200Z 26.1N 114.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BEEN \r\nIMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...WITH GOOD CURVATURE \r\nDEVELOPING IN THE CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER.  DVORAK \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.5 FROM KGWC AND TAFB...AND 2.0 FROM SAB.  \r\nTHERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE ESTIMATED CENTER \r\nPOSITIONS...AND AS THE SAB POSITION WAS THE CLOSEST TO MY OWN \r\nESTIMATE...I HAVE STARTED THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nCONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS CENTER POSITIONS IS POOR...SO THE INITIAL \r\nMOTION IS GUESTIMATED TO BE 360/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WIND \r\nVECTORS FROM THE CIMSS WEB PAGE SHOW A SMALL MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST \r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO \r\nCONTINUE WITH A SUFFICIENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO TAKE IT OVER OR \r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THUS THE \r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING.  THE MID-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST BY \r\nTHE GFS AND UKMET TO EDGE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS...AND THE GFS DEVELOPS A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS \r\nPATTERN WOULD FAVOR A TURN TO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK DURING THE \r\nLATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY \r\nDIMINISH.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO \r\nLAND...ONLY A MODEST AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 16.2N 101.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.9N 102.1W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.7N 102.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 103.6W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 105.0W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N 108.0W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ARE NOW 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM KGWC.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE LAGGING THE\r\nCONCURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES...AND I WILL ASSUME THAT THE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS STILL HAVE SOME HIGH BIAS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE INCREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...NOW\r\nESTIMATED AT 355/8.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND WIND VECTORS FROM THE CIMSS WEB\r\nPAGE SHOW A SMALL MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\nTHIS...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF THE CLIMOTOLOGICAL MEXICAN HIGH...IS\r\nALLOWING JULIO TO MAKE ITS MOVE TO THE COAST.  GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL LOW AND BUILD THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THIS PATTERN\r\nWOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE OVERALL STEERING AND TURN JULIO TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE UKMET SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COASTLINE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...A MOTION\r\nTHAT COULD PRODUCE EXTREMELY HEAVY AND HAZARDOUS RAINS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nDIMINISH.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER EXPECTED TO BE OVER OR VERY\r\nCLOSE TO LAND...NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 17.6N 102.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 102.4W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.6N 103.3W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 105.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.0N 108.0W    45 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 25 2002\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT JULIO \r\nHAS MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.  ZIHUATANEJO \r\nLOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SOUTH WINDS OF \r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 2042 UTC...WITH THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION \r\nINDICATING A SOUTHWEST WIND.  SHIP LAWO2 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES  \r\nSOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO REPORTED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT A \r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS AGO.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF JULIO IS 335/10.  NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nDECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL\r\nLOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE SLOWLY\r\nRE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.  BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER HIGH TERRAIN...THE FUTURE MOTION COULD END UP BEING\r\nQUITE ERRATIC AND IN FACT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE THE RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...  AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  ASSUMING\r\nJULIO SURVIVES THE MOUNTAINS...IT IS FORECAST TO BE BACK OVER WATER\r\nJUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE\r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL BE BETTER ESTABLISHED AND STEER THE SYSTEM TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT \r\nFROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND ON THE 35 KT WIND REPORTED \r\nAT ZIHUATANEJO EARLIER TODAY...THE SYNOPTIC INTENSITY AT 0000 UTC \r\nWAS RAISED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE BROUGHT BACK \r\nDOWN TO 35 KT AS THE CENTER IS ON THE COAST AND THE CONVECTION NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  FURTHER WEAKENING \r\nIS EXPECTED AS JULIO ENCOUNTERS HIGH TERRAIN...WITH THE CYCLONE \r\nFORECAST TO REGAIN 35 KT INTENSITY OVER WATER IN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 18.1N 102.6W    35 KTS...INLAND\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z 18.7N 103.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 103.8W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.9N 104.7W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N 106.0W    35 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n72HR VT     29/0000Z 22.0N 109.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julio","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nJULIO HAS MADE LANDFALL AND IS WEAKENING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB WERE 45 KT AT 0600 UTC. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0123 UTC\r\nINDICATED A FEW 35 KT RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDS. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...THE SYNOPTIC INTENSITY WAS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER\r\nSINCE THAT TIME THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED\r\nWITH ONLY A HINT OF A BAND ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE. CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AS WELL THUS THE INTENSITY FOR\r\nADVISORY TIME IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. IN ADDITION SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO INDICATE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.\r\nALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN LOWERED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF JULIO IS 315/10. THE MOTION AT SYNOPTIC\r\nTIME WAS 315/12 BASED ON FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION WITH A DECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS\r\nAS A MID-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AND\r\nA RIDGE SLOWLY RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BY\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH RECENT FIXES ARE NEAR THE COAST AND THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CYCLONE BACK\r\nOVER WATER IN 24 HOURS...THERE IS A CHANCE JULIO MAY NOT SURVIVE THE\r\nRUGGED TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES JULIO WILL SURVIVE\r\nTHE ENCOUNTER WITH LAND AND CALLS FOR REINTENSIFICATION TO A 35 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS...AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED BACK OVER\r\nWATER. BY THAT TIME THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII ARE OVER\r\nOPEN WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0900Z 19.0N 103.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.8N 105.0W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.7N 106.1W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N 107.3W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N 108.5W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 110.5W    45 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julio","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n\r\nJULIO IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  IT IS \r\nVERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES \r\nAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT CLARIFYING THE POSITION OF THE \r\nSYSTEM.  THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE \r\nDEPRESSION MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CENTER AND IF SO... JULIO WILL \r\nLIKELY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nASSUMING THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE TREK ACROSS MEXICO... IT WOULD \r\nBE ENTERING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER.  \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 315/9...PUTTING THE CENTER OVER WATER IN ABOUT 24 \r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A \r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THIS TRACK \r\nWOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS  SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA JUST BEYOND \r\n48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES JULIO WILL SURVIVE THE \r\nENCOUNTER WITH LAND AND CALLS FOR MINIMAL REINTENSIFICATION TO A 35 \r\nKT TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS.  THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE \r\nCURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1500Z 19.6N 104.6W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N 105.4W    25 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 106.5W    25 KTS...OVER WATER\r\n36HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 109.5W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julio","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-09-26 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT THU SEP 26 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE IS NO \r\nLONGER A CLOSED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIO.  THE REMNANTS OF \r\nJULIO ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OVER INLAND MEXICO AND COULD \r\nPRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/1800Z 20.0N 104.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     27/0000Z ...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DISTURBED AREA SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS A SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE AND\r\nSOME ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  WITH DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS OF\r\n2.5 AND 2.0 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AFGWA...IT IS TIME START\r\nDEPRESSION ADVISORIES.  THIS IS NOT A WELL ORGANIZED DEPRESSION.  A\r\n19Z TRMM PASS SHOWED LITTLE INNER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN SPOTTY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WIND \r\nSPEED TO 78 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR INTERFERES \r\nWITH THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT SO WELL\r\nORGANIZED...MY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14.  WITH AN EAST/WEST MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nJUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nIS EXPECTED FOR 72 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 11.6N 100.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 12.3N 101.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 13.1N 103.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.6N 105.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.3N 106.6W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 108.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenna","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING \r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS WITH BOTH BANDING FEATURES AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nIMPROVING. THE INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST \r\nWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT BOTH TAFB AND SAB OBTAINED A \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY OF T2.5...OR 35 KT..BASED ON THE IMPROVED \r\nBANDING FEATURES. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THE ACTUAL MOTION OVER THE \r\nPAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN 275/10. HOWEVER...I BELIEVE THAT THIS IS A \r\nTEMPORARY MOTION THAT IS MOST LIKELY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE \r\nINNER-CORE CIRCULATION CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT \r\nOVERPASS AT 22/0020Z INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS \r\nELONGATED SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST AND THIS COULD ALSO EXPLAIN SOME OF THE \r\nRECENT WESTWARD JOG THAT KENNA HAS MADE. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS \r\nEXPECTED TO RETURN TO A BASE COURSE OF 290 DEGREES WITHIN THE NEXT \r\n12 HOURS AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN \r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH. BY 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A \r\nDEEPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 800 NMI WEST OF \r\nCALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN \r\nPORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOW KENNA TO BEGIN TO TURN \r\nMORE NORTHWARD. THIS SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE SCENARIO GIVEN THE HIGH \r\nAMPLITUDE RIDGING THAT IS PRESENTLY OCCURRING BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE \r\nTROUGH AND THE DEEP POLAR LOW OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. IN FACT... \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS MAY BE UNDERFORECASTING THE AMPLITUDE OF THE \r\nTROUGH WHEN IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 72 HOURS...WHICH WOULD \r\nALLOW KENNA TO BEGIN RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AND \r\nTHEN BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GUNA \r\nENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION OF KENNA HAS IMPROVED \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY. THE IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE...ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD IS BECOMING \r\nMORE SYMMETRICAL. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO IMPROVED \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICRICLE. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nIS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...THEN THE \r\nINTENSIFICATION RATE WAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY SINCE KENNA IS \r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 29C OR GREATER SSTS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND \r\nBEYOND. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL BELOW THE SHIPS \r\nMODEL WHICH BRINGS KENNA TO 75 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 83 KT IN 72 HOURS. \r\nBUT IF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION AND CONVECTION TIGHTENS UP MORE \r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY HAVE TO \r\nBE INCREASED CLOSER TO THE GFDL MODEL WHICH MAKES KENNA A 111 KT \r\nMAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 11.6N 100.8W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 12.3N 102.5W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.0N 104.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 13.8N 105.9W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.8N 107.1W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 107.7W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenna","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT...AND\r\nSO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENCE OF\r\nIMPROVED BANDING...BUT THIS BANDING IS RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  THE SHEAR OVER KENNA IS LOW...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE IS NOT OPTIMALLY LOCATED...BEING DISPLACED NORTH OF\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  ON THE PROJECTED TRACK...SSTS SHOULD REMAIN\r\nVERY HIGH.  IN SHORT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT IT MAY TAKE 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM\r\nREALLY BEGINS TO CRANK UP.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS JUST A LITTLE BELOW\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT \r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  KENNA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 17N.  \r\nA LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF \r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS A SHORT WAVE \r\nCURRENTLY NEAR 30N/140W MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.  ALL THE GUIDANCE \r\nRESPONDS TO THIS SCENARIO WITH A RECURVATURE OF KENNA TOWARD THE \r\nMEXICAN COAST...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF VARIANCE AS TO WHERE AND HOW \r\nFAST THE RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS IS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF \r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT TAKES KENNA INITIALLY \r\nON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  PERHAPS \r\nCOINCIDENTALLY...THIS APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nRECENT TRACK.  GIVEN THIS...AND THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE \r\nGFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 11.7N 101.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 12.1N 103.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N 105.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 107.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 108.0W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenna","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002\r\n \r\nKENNA HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND THERE ARE TWO PERSISTENT BANDS WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...BUT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE\r\nNEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS RAGGED.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES REMAIN AT T2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nWITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A BIT MORE CERTAIN AND\r\nIS NOW ESTIMATED AT 285/10.  KENNA REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 17N.  A\r\nLARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF\r\nSHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES.  ALL THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS\r\nSCENARIO WITH A RECURVATURE OF KENNA TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF VARIANCE AS TO WHERE AND\r\nHOW FAST THE RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE NEAR\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT TAKES\r\nKENNA INITIALLY ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nIS NEAR THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/AVN-GFS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY \r\nWARM WATER...LOW SHEAR...AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE \r\nIS VERY LOOSE RIGHT NOW THOUGH...AND SO RAPID STRENGTHENING DOES NOT \r\nAPPEAR IMMINENT.  IF KENNA CAN IMPROVE THE ORGANIZATION OF ITS INNER \r\nCORE REGION...THEN SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS WOULD \r\nBE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 12.3N 103.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.7N 104.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.8N 106.5W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 108.5W    65 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 107.5W    75 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenna","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002\r\n\r\nKENNA IS CONSOLIDATING THIS EVENING...SHOWING THE FORMATION OF A \r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND STRONG\r\nOUTER BANDING DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE THE CDO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 19N EAST\r\nOF 130W...WHILE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nOVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT CLIPER CALLS\r\nFOR KENNA TO ROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 105W-110W\r\nIN 36-48 HR AND RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE \r\nTROUGH.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW SHARPLY WILL THE STORM RECURVE.\r\nTHE AVN/GFS CALLS FOR A LESS SHARP TURN BRINGING KENNA MORE TO THE \r\nNORTH...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS TURN THE CYCLONE MORE SHARPLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nBRINING THE CENTER TO JUST NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES IN 72 HR.\r\n \r\nKENNA IS SHOWING GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO FAIR ELSEWHERE.  GIVEN THIS...A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND THE CURRENT CONSOLIDATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  INDEED...RAPID STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nONCE AN EYEWALL FORMS AND KENNA COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST BY 36-48 HR.  AT ABOUT THAT TIME...UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE\r\nSHEAR.  THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FASTER STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT RATE\r\nAS SHEAR INCREASES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL BRING KENNA TO\r\n105 KT IN ABOUT 60 HR.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 12.7N 104.1W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.3N 105.8W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W    60 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W    70 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W    75 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 106.0W    80 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenna","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n \r\nKENNA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EARLY MORNING AS \r\nINDICATED BY A CDO FEATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND ALSO A SMALL 10 \r\nNMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE AS SEEN IN A 23/0451Z TRMM OVERPASS. THE \r\nINTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE \r\nAND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 \r\nKT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER \r\nTHAN THE TAFB ESTIMATE DUE TO A SLIGHT WESTWARD TILT OF THE MID- AND \r\nUPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE... \r\nESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES \r\nTHAT A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW OFF THE \r\nCALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY. THE 06Z \r\nGFS MODEL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND \r\nAS SUCH...DOES NOT WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY AS THE OTHER MODELS DO. THERE IS \r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS ON THE LATITUDE OF \r\nRECURVATURE...ONLY THE TIMING IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE FASTER...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE \r\nUKMET...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...\r\nKENNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IN \r\nABOUT 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT KENNA HAS DEVELOPED A VERTICALLY DEEP EYE FEATURE IN THE \r\nTRMM DATA AND THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CDO...A \r\n24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST. THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR \r\nENVIRONMENT...LESS THAN 10 KT...ALSO SUPPORTS RAPID STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY \r\nMODEL WHICH STEADILY BRINGS KENNA UP TO 85 KT IN 48 HOURS...AND THEN \r\nSLOWLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR \r\nINCREASES.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 13.3N 105.0W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N 106.4W    65 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.4N 107.8W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N 108.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 18.3N 107.7W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 22.2N 104.9W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n \r\nRECENT IR IMAGES ARE SHOWING A WARM SPOT THAT IS PROBABLY THE\r\nBEGINNING OF AN EYE.  KENNA IS CONSOLIDATING...WITH THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION MUCH STRONGER...AND THE OUTER BANDS SOMEWHAT LESS\r\nPRONOUNCED THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS\r\nEXCELLENT TO THE WEST AND IMPROVING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0...65\r\nKT...AND SO KENNA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS BASIS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ARE ESSENTIALLLY UNCHANGED.\r\nKENNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...AND MEET UP WITH THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nQUITE CONSISTENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE APPROACHES TO THE TRACK OF\r\nKENNA.  THE GFS IN PARTICULAR HAS BEEN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TAKING KENNA TO THE VICINITY OF MAZATLAN...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL AND UKMET HAVE BEEN NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE...CLOSER TO CABO\r\nCORRIENTES.  THE FIRST FEW GFS FORECASTS ARE ALREADY SHOWING A\r\nWESTWARD BIAS...WHICH SUPPORTS A COMPROMISE OFFICIAL FORECAST THAT\r\nLEANS TOWARD THE UKMET.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE CONTROL RUN...AND NOT FAR FROM THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nHAVING DEVELOPED A GOOD INNER CORE...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON FOR\r\nKENNA TO STOP STRENGTHENING JUST YET.  THE WATER IS VERY WARM AND\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL BE LOW FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS AS KENNA ROUNDS THE\r\nRIDGE AXIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR KENNA TO STRENGTHEN MORE\r\nTHAN SHOWN BELOW.  AFTER KENNA TURNS NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AN INCREASE IN SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THERE\r\nIS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG KENNA MIGHT BE AT THE\r\nTIME OF LANDFALL...WHICH IS STILL TWO TO THREE DAYS OUT.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 14.0N 106.1W    65 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.8N 107.3W    75 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.1N 108.4W    85 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W    95 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 107.5W    90 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N 104.5W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES NOW SHOW AN EYE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY \r\nIS SET TO 75 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM \r\nTAFB.  KENNA HAS A NICE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AND IT IS OVER \r\nVERY WARM WATER. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT \r\nDAY OR SO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS \r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD PUT THE BRAKES ON THE \r\nSTRENGTHENING PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT \r\nWEAKENING PRIOR TO THE ANTICIPATED LANDFALL...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF \r\nUNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW STRONG KENNA MIGHT BE WHEN IT REACHES THE \r\nCOAST.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\nOTHERWISE THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KENNA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A 500 MB ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nAFTERWARDS...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS\r\nIS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA.  IF \r\nKENNA CONTINUES ON THE PROJECTED TRACK...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL \r\nLIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 14.5N 107.5W    75 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N 108.4W    85 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N 109.0W    95 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.8N 108.2W    90 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 107.0W    85 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 103.0W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n \r\nKENNA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS EVENING.  THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C...AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE IN THE \r\nOVERCAST.  AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED A ROUGHLY 15 N MI WIDE\r\nEYE UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE RAISED TO 85 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 HR MOTION IS 300/13.  HOWEVER...A 5 HR MOTION IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT AND SLOWER...310/10.  THE INITIAL MOTION WILL BE A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VECTORS...305/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT KENNA IS STEADILY APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE\r\nPACIFIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE KENNA TO SOON\r\nRECURVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH ALL NHC TRACK GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER\r\nINDICATING RECURVATURE IN 12-24 HR.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW\r\nFAST WILL KENNA MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES\r\nBEST WITH THE SPEED OF THE GFS/AVN AND THE NOGAPS...BRINGING KENNA\r\nNEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND PUERTO\r\nVALLARTA IN 48 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KENNA TURNS MORE\r\nSHARPLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT COULD STRIKE THE COAST FURTHER\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND EARLIER.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.\r\nWHILE 105 KT IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE GFDL STRENGTHENS KENNA\r\nTO 120 KT...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS.\r\nAFTER 24 HR...THE HURRICANE SHOULD MAKE CONTACT WITH STRONG UPPER-\r\nLEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR TO THE POINT\r\nOF AT LEAST STOPPING INTENSIFICATION IF NOT CAUSING WEAKENING.  THE\r\nFORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING FROM THE 24 HR POINT\r\nTO LANDFALL IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  KENNA \r\nSHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nKENNA.  HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKE BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST THURSDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 15.3N 108.3W    85 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W    95 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.3N 108.9W   105 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 107.8W   100 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W    95 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W    20 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n\r\nKENNA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A MAJOR \r\nHURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF DVROAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nOF T6.0...OR 115 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T5.5...OR 102 KT... \r\nFROM AFWA. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN ABOUT ONE-HALF OF A T-NUMBER \r\nLOWER THAN THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR RAPIDLY \r\nINTENSIFYING EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE \r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE \r\nAROUND 18Z LATER TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION \r\nON THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS FORMIDABLE LOOKING HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/8.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING OR MODEL GUIDANCE. KENNA APPEARS \r\nTO HAVE BEGUN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS \r\nINDICATED BY SATELLITE FIXES AND THE RECENT NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATION \r\nIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE OUTFLOW CIRRUS PATTERN. THE \r\n06Z AVN/GFS MODEL INITIALIZED ONE OF THE MOST AMORPHOUS LOOKING \r\nNEAR-MAJOR HURRICANE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE PATTERNS THAT I HAVE \r\nSEEN BY A GLOBAL MODEL IN QUITE SOME TIME. AS SUCH...THE GFS KEEPS \r\nKENNA A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND STEERS THE \r\nSYSTEM NORTHWARD BY THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVES IT INLAND \r\nNORTH OF MAZATLAN. LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET-GFDL-GFDN-NOGAPS \r\nCONSENSUS...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS/AVN AND THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND TAKES THE HURRICANE INLAND JUST NORTH OF PUERTO \r\nVALLARTA IN 36 TO 42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO \r\nHAS ISSUED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR SOUTHWESTERN \r\nMEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO MANZANILLO.\r\n \r\nKENNA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN FOR ANOTHER 12 \r\nHOURS OR SO AND THEN LEVEL OFF...OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEAKEN. INFRARED \r\nAND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT KENNA HAS A VERY SMALL \r\n5-7 N MI DIAMETER EYE. SUCH A SMALL EYE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE \r\nHURRICANE PEAKING AT AROUND 120 KT OR SO...AND THEN UNDERGO AN \r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OR TWO. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS IN ABOUT \r\n24 HOURS...INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND...BUT KENNA COULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE \r\nAT LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND \r\nCLOSER TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A \r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING KENNA UP \r\nTO 118 KT IN 24 HOURS AND 121 KT IN 30 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nKENNA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW BEING ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER \r\nMIATCPEP4 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 15.9N 108.5W   100 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N 108.7W   115 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.9N 107.9W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W   105 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.1N 103.7W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.0N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.5...AND \r\nTHE 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK WAS NEAR T7.0.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF \r\nIMAGES THE EYE APPEARS TO BE BECOMING MORE SHARPLY DEFINED.  THE \r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 120 KT AND MAY STILL BE A LITTLE \r\nLOW.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CENTER AROUND 18Z TO \r\nGIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nKENNA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8...AND IS BASICALLY ON TRACK.  \r\nKENNA IS APPROACHING A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES THAT WILL TURN \r\nTHE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THERE \r\nHAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  AS \r\nNOTED PREVIOUSLY...THE GFS...WITH A VERY WEAKLY INITITED VORTEX...IS \r\nTHE OUTLIER TO THE NORTH...BRINGING KENNA TO NEAR MAZATLAN.  THE \r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A LANDFALL NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF \r\nCABO CORRIENTES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE UKMET \r\nAND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nAS KENNA ROUNDS THE RIDGE...THE SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE \r\nINCREASING...SO KENNA HAS PERHAPS NOT MORE THAN 6-12 HOURS OF \r\nSTRENGTHENING.  SSTS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM UNDER THE \r\nCYCLONE...HOWEVER...AND KENNA WILL PROBABLY STILL BE A MAJOR \r\nHURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 16.9N 108.7W   120 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 18.2N 108.5W   125 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 107.2W   115 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 105.0W   100 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N 102.5W    30 KTS...INLAND\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n \r\nSCORE ONE FOR THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FOR\r\nKENNA...BOTH THE OBJECTIVE AND THE SAB SUBJECTIVE...ARE AT T7.0...OR\r\n140 KT/921 MB.  THE TAFB ESTIMATE IS 127 KT.  ON THEIR FIRST PASS\r\nTHROUGH KENNA...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 921 MB AND A\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 145 KT.  ON THE SECOND PASS...THE DROPSONDE \r\nPRESSURE WAS 918 MB...BUT WITH 27 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.  THE \r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE IS THEREFORE ESTIMATED TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN THAT. \r\nA DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED A PEAK WIND \r\nOF 189 KT...AND A MEAN WIND OVER THE LOWEST 500 M OF 172 KT.  THIS \r\nDROP SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH \r\nTHE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9.  THE TRACK HAS BEEN WELL BEHAVED SO \r\nFAR...AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC \r\nREASONING...OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...OR FORECAST TRACK.  KENNA IS \r\nAPPROACHING A MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES THAT WILL TURN\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE GFS \r\nCONTINUES TO INITIALIZE A RELATIVELY WEAK VORTEX AND REMAINS ON THE \r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS \r\nIN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET...WITH A LANDFALL MOST \r\nLIKELY BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND CABO CORRIENTES.\r\n \r\nKENNA IS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS...QUITE OFTEN THE LOCATION OF A \r\nCYCLONES PEAK INTENSITY.  A WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN SOON \r\nAS KENNA BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE \r\nMAIN QUESTION IS HOW FAST WILL IT WEAKEN.  THE SYNOPTIC FACTORS \r\nWOULD NOT SUGGEST A RAPID WEAKENING...AS THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE THAT \r\nSTRONG AND THE WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN VERY WARM.  ON \r\nTHE OTHER HAND...RECON AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KENNA HAS \r\nONLY A TINY CORE OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND NOT MUCH OUTSIDE THAT \r\nCORE.  THIS MEANS THAT IF THE CORE COLLAPSES THEN THERE COULD BE A \r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE STATE OF THE SCIENCE \r\nSIMPLY DOES NOT ALLOW US TO BE CONFIDENT IN ASSESSING HOW THE INNER \r\nCORE WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nNECESSARILY CONSERVATIVE IN THIS REGARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 17.8N 108.7W   140 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 19.2N 108.2W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 21.3N 106.2W   120 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.0N 103.0W    50 KTS...INLAND\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  99.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-10-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF KENNA IS SOMEWHAT SPECULATIVE THIS EVENING.  WHILE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL\r\n140 KT...THAT WAS THE INTENSITY NOTED BY THE AIRCRAFT BACK AT 19Z\r\nWHILE THE HURRICANE WAS STILL INTENSIFYING.  IT IS UNKNOWN WHETHER\r\nTHE STORM BOTTOMED OUT AT THAT TIME OR CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY.  THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A STEADY-STATE INTENSE\r\nHURRICANE...ONE THAT MAY BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL FORMATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN 140 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE IT COULD BE A \r\nLITTLE HIGHER.\r\n \r\nKENNA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW WOBBLING BETWEEN 030-035 AT 10 KT.  THE \r\nHURRICANE IS RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND A GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE\r\nMAKES LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK \r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES ALL GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER.  THE TRACK\r\nBRINGS THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND PUERTO\r\nVALLARTA IN ABOUT 18 HR.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD\r\nBRING THE CENTER ONSHORE CLOSER TO CABO CORRIENTES/PUERTO VALLARTA\r\nAT AN EARLIER TIME.\r\n \r\nKENNA IS SHOWING SOME EFFECTS OF THE WESTERLIES...AS OUTFLOW AND\r\nOUTER BANDING ARE DECREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS NO OBVIOUS SIGN YET THAT THE DEVELOPING SHEAR IS AFFECTING\r\nTHE CENTRAL CORE.  UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE SLOW\r\nTO WEAKEN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT\r\nKENNA SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS BE A MODEST\r\nWEAKENING OR SOMETHING SIMILAR TO LILI AS IT APPROACHED LOUISIANA\r\nTHREE WEEKS AGO?  GIVE THE IMPRESSIVE CORE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND\r\nWARM WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MODEST\r\nWEAKENING...WITH KENNA LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL AT 120-130 KT\r\nINTENSITY.  HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT SMALL EYE STRUCTURE GETS\r\nDISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR OR A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...A MUCH\r\nQUICKER WEAKENING COULD OCCUR.  KENNA SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER\r\nLANDFALL.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDCIATE THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR\r\nSHOULD BE POURING INTO TEXAS BEFORE THE CENTER OF KENNA CAN MAKE IT\r\nTHERE.  THUS...WHILE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY\r\nPASS OVER TEXAS...THE SURFACE CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 18.8N 108.1W   140 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 20.3N 107.0W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.6N 104.4W    80 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 26.2N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":14,"Date":"2002-10-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002\r\n \r\nKENNA CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A SMALL WELL DEFINED EYE.  THERE IS A\r\nSUGGESTION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS.  BASED ON DVORAK \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 7.0/7.5 FROM TAFB/SAB...THE WIND SPEED IS \r\nINCREASED 5 KNOTS TO 145 KNOTS.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE \r\nHURRICANE AT 12Z.  THERE IS ALREADY ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR \r\nNEAR THE HURRICANE AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE CIMSS CLOUD \r\nMOTION VECTOR WIND SHEAR IS LESS.  SO FAR THE WIND SHEAR DOES NOT \r\nAPPEAR TO BE AFFECTING KENNA.  THEREFORE IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WIND \r\nSPEED WILL CHANGE LITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nKENNA REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF 035/13.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND KENNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND IN 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO\r\nSHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE KENNA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 19.8N 107.0W   145 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 105.5W   135 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.2N 101.0W    40 KTS...INLAND\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 29.5N  94.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":15,"Date":"2002-10-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE EYE FILLING WAS CONFIRMED\r\nBY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WHICH INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN\r\n25-30 MB SINCE YESTERDAY.  A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0429Z SHOWED\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE EYE WAS NOW\r\n20 NM WIDE ...COMPARED TO 10 NM YESTERDAY.  SURPRISINGLY...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 147 KT IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 130-135 KT\r\nIF IT WERE REPRESENTATIVE.  I AM GOING A LITTLE BELOW THAT VALUE FOR\r\nTHE ADVISORY BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND SINCE THE TIME OF THE\r\nOBSERVATION...THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION IN THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION AND THE WIND THAT WOULD CORRESPOND TO THE CURRENT\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE.  KENNA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL IN A COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  DUE TO THE INCREASE IN\r\nHURRICANE WINDS WITH HEIGHT...SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE\r\nCOASTLINE MAY EXPERIENCE HIGHER WINDS THAN INDICATED BY THE\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nKENNA HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n040/17.  KENNA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AFTER LANDFALL.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nMEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LEE SIDE AND BAROCLINIC-INDUCED\r\nREGENERATION OF A NEW CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 21.1N 105.9W   125 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 22.9N 104.0W    60 KTS...INLAND\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 26.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenna","Adv":16,"Date":"2002-10-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002\r\n \r\nKENNA MADE LANDFALL AS A 120 KT CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE NEAR SAN \r\nBLAS MEXICO NEAR 1630Z.  IT IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE...THE MOTION \r\nIS NOW 040/21.  IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS \r\nOF CENTRAL MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT A SURFACE \r\nCIRCULATION...PROBABLY BAROCLINIC...COULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS \r\nGULF COAST IN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IT IS ALMOST CERTAIN \r\nTHAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL PRESENT...PARTICULARLY AT \r\nHIGHER ELEVATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 23.0N 104.0W    70 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.5N 101.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kenna","Adv":17,"Date":"2002-10-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN EITHER THE LOCATION OR INTENSITY\r\nOF KENNA OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.  OBSERVATIONS FROM SOMBRERETE...\r\nALONG WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SATELLITE CLOUD PATTERN...SUGGEST THE \r\nCENTER IS MOVING 045/23...JUST A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK.  ZACATECAS REPORTED 30 KT SUSTAINED WINDS ABOUT 50-60 N MI \r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 01Z...SUGGESTING THAT AT THAT TIME \r\nMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE NEAR 35 KT.  KENNA IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE \r\nWEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION SINCE THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER \r\nWINDS MAY STILL BE OCCURRING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS FOR THE FATE OF KENNA.  THE FIRST HAS THE \r\nSURFACE CENTER DISSIPATING OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE FIRST\r\n12 HR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER TRIGGERING A LOW IN A FRONTAL \r\nZONE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.  THE SECOND IS FOR A MUCH WEAKENED \r\nSURFACE CENTER TO SURVIVE AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE FIRST SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...WHICH \r\nEVER SCENARIO VERIFIES WILL NOT MAKE A MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN THE \r\nWEATHER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF STATES...AS A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE \r\nNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT \r\nRAINS.  PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL \r\nPREDICTION CENTER AND LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES FOR INFORMATION ON \r\nTHE RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON KENNA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE \r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     26/0300Z 24.5N 102.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA \r\nOF DISTURBED WEATHER NEAR 130W HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH \r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  DVORAK \r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0...CORRESPONDING TO 30 KT. \r\nI COULD NOT EXTRACT AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE QUIKSCAT \r\nRAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF HISTORY ON \r\nTHE SYSTEM...BUT A HOPEFULLY REASONABLE GUESS IS 285/5.  THERE IS A \r\nWEAK RIDGE SEPARATING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE WESTERLIES...AND MOST \r\nOF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST- \r\nNORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND \r\nSHALLOW BAM AND THE GFS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS \r\nDO NOT INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP MUCH.  THE SHIPS \r\nGUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS NOT HELPFUL...AS IT WAS RUN OFF THE LBAR \r\nTRACK WHICH RECURVED THE DEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST INTO COOLER \r\nWATERS AND HIGH SHEAR.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT \r\nFAVORABLE...WITH DECENT SSTS...LOW SHEAR...AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW \r\nALOFT.  I AM NOT CERTAIN WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SO DOWN ON THIS \r\nSYSTEM...BUT THEY ARE THE ONLY GUIDANCE I HAVE RIGHT NOW.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL \r\nSTORM BECAUSE OF THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FACTORS AS NOTED ABOVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 11.1N 130.9W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 11.4N 132.1W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 11.8N 133.7W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 12.3N 135.3W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 12.7N 136.8W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 13.5N 140.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002\r\n\r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIFTEEN-E HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SOME EVIDENCE\r\nOF CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...\r\nAND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS VERY HARD TO FIND.  THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...AND JUST TO COMPLICATE\r\nMATTERS FURTHER THERE ARE HINTS OF A SWIRL WEST OF THE ELONGATION\r\nNEAR 11.1N 131.3W.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS POSITION BASED ON THE SAB AND AFWA FIXES AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CURVATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN AGAIN VERY UNCERTAIN 315/5.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH\r\nOF 19N EAST OF 130W...BUT ALSO SUGGESTS THERE IS A NARROW RIDGE\r\nSEPARATING THE CYCLONE FROM THE TROUGH.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SAVE\r\nLBAR RESPONDS TO THIS BY TURNING THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nUNDER THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO...\r\nSIMILAR TO BUT SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND APPARENT MOTION.  SHOULD THE CENTER RE-FORM OR\r\nBE RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTH ON A LATER PACKAGE...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCOULD SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nIS CENTER OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH IS \r\nHELPING TO SHUNT THE WESTERLIES AND STRONG SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE \r\nSYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 36-48 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER\r\nWATER AFTER 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 11.9N 130.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 12.6N 131.5W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 13.5N 132.9W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 134.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 136.0W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 138.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB \r\nINDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E HAS STRENGTHENED INTO \r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY \r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITON BASED ON A 23/0338Z \r\nAMSU OVERPASS AND A CONCURRENT PARTIAL QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER \r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ROUGHLY 360/04. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON LOWELL TURNING MORE TOWARD THE \r\nNORTH LATER TODAY AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY 24 HOURS AS THE \r\nCYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL \r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OR \r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET...GFDL...AND GFDN \r\nCONSENSUS. NOGAPS WAS NOT AVAILABLE AT THE ADVISORY TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A 23/0338Z AMSU \r\nOVERPASS INDICATED THAT A PARTIAL EYEWALL MAY HAVE BEEN FORMING AT \r\nTHAT TIME. SHIPS INDICATES THE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE ABOVE \r\nTHE CURRENT 15 KT...BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE \r\nAT THIS TIME. AS SUCH...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST \r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS BUT WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 12.0N 130.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 12.7N 131.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.5N 133.2W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 13.9N 134.7W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.2N 136.2W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N 138.5W    40 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n \r\nLOWELL IS GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS THIS MORNING.  ON IR IMAGERY \r\nTHE BANDING STRUCTURE IS MUCH IMPROVED...BUT THE NIGHT-VISIBLE \r\nIMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED WEST OF THE \r\nIMPRESSIVE IR CENTER.  OVERALL...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE \r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH \r\nA DEEPER SYSTEM RESPONDING TO AN UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS \r\nPREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY.  I AM COMPROMISING A BIT ON THE INITIAL \r\nPOSITION UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY IN A FEW HOURS HOPEFULLY CLARIFIES \r\nTHINGS.  WITH THE IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURE ON IR IMAGERY...THE \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM \r\nSAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5.  THERE IS A DISTINCT SPLIT IN \r\nTHE GUIDANCE...WITH NEARLY ALL OF IT TAKING LOWELL WESTWARD WITH A \r\nSHALLOW LAYER FLOW.  THE LBAR IS ALONE WITH A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST \r\nTRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.  IF LOWELL CONSOLIDATES WITH THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION...THEN THIS MIGHT BE A REASONABLE TRACK IN THE SHORT \r\nTERM...AND I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE RIGHT OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION WILL \r\nTAKE LOWELL TOWARD STRONGER SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY COOLER WATER...SO A \r\nWEST TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SEEMS LIKELY.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING...WITH MODEST \r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND DECAY THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 12.9N 131.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.5N 131.5W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.1N 132.2W    50 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 133.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 134.5W    45 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 137.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT LOWELL IS\r\nBEING AFFECTED BY INCREASED SHEAR.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE\r\nMAY BE GENEROUS.  IF THE SHEARING CONTINUES...THEN LOWELL WILL VERY\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN.  HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOVER LOWELL COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS AT A LOW LATITUDE.  THEREFORE THE BEST COURSE OF\r\nACTION IS TO PREDICT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH MOTION AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS A RATHER \r\nUNCERTAIN 260/4.  THE MORE SOUTHWESTWARD POSITIONING OF THE CENTER \r\nHAS REQUIRED A SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE \r\nPRIMARY CONTRIBUTOR TO STEERING SHOULD BE THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC \r\nFLOW...AND IF LOWELL WEAKENS MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IT WILL BE CARRIED \r\nFASTER TOWARD THE WEST THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 12.2N 131.7W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.8N 132.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 133.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.2N 134.2W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 135.2W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 137.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2002\r\n\r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL\r\nIS SEPARATING FURTHER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHERLY\r\nOR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WHAT CONVECTION IS PRESENT IS NOW IN A\r\nBROADLY CURVED BAND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER IS NOW MOVING 270/7.  LOWELL IS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHIS STEERING FEATURE SHOULD PERSIST WITH PERHAPS SOME SLOW\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nSHEARED LOWELL TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  ALL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SAVE LBAR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nA FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORECAST SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE AT 6-8 KT...WHICH COMPROMISES \r\nBETWEEN FASTER MODELS LIKE THE GFDL AND BAMS...AND SLOWER MODELS\r\nSUCH AS THE UKMET.  THIS TRACK IS CONSIDERABLY THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nLOWELL IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL-AT-BEST SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND\r\nTHUS IS NOT LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MUCH FURTHER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY DECREASE IN 24-36 HR AS\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE STORM.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME...SIGNIFICANT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE\r\nRIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AS\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE HOSTILE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 12.4N 132.8W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.5N 133.6W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 12.7N 134.9W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 13.0N 136.4W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 13.3N 138.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF \r\nLOWELL...BASED ON THE LARGE SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITONS \r\nFORM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES. HOWEVER...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE \r\nPARTIALLY TO MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE FAR WEST SIDE \r\nOF THE CIRRUS SHIELD. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM \r\nSAB...35 KT FROM...TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE \r\nGENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN \r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL \r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nTRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA ENSEMBLE MODEL TRACK.\r\n \r\nLOWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ANY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST \r\nPERIOD AND MAY EVEN WEAKEN MORE AND SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATING...EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFS/AVN \r\nMODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE THE \r\nCURRENT 20 KT THAT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0900Z 12.7N 133.6W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.8N 134.4W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     25/0600Z 13.0N 135.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     25/1800Z 13.3N 137.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 138.9W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.3N 142.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB...35 KT FROM TAFB \r\nWITH BOTH AGENCIES INDICATING DIFFICULTY DETERMINING DVORAK FINAL T \r\nNUMBERS DUE TO THE ABSENSE OF CONVECTION WITH LOWELL. THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS \r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  AN EARLIER 0300 UTC \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS ALSO INDICATED A CENTER LOCATION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nSATELLITE FIXES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 BASED ON A \r\n12 TO 18 HOUR AVERAGE.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL \r\nWESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE \r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS \r\nTRACK AND THE BAM SHALLOW TRACK SPEED.\r\n \r\nLOWELL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE ABSENSE OF DEEP CONVECTION \r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW CENTER IN 24 \r\nHOURS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT \r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ALTHOUGH A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO \r\nPERSIST FOR 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/HOLWEG\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/1500Z 12.3N 135.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0000Z 12.4N 136.5W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     25/1200Z 12.8N 138.4W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     26/0000Z 13.2N 140.1W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N 141.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 145.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY NOW CONFIRMS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH A \r\nSMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB \r\nWHILE AIR FORCE GLOBAL ESTIMATES 25 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 \r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE \r\nEARLIER TRACK REASONING...AS LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A \r\nGENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...DUE TO THE \r\nSTRENGTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW CENTER IN 24\r\nHOURS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR \r\nTHROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF BURSTS OF \r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THAT \r\nTIME.  ALTHOUGH A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO LINGER FOR 72 \r\nHOURS...THE SYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER HOLWEG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/2100Z 12.3N 136.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/0600Z 12.4N 138.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 142.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 143.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 147.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":10,"Date":"2002-10-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2002\r\n \r\nLOWELL CONSISTS OF A FAIRLY SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SMALL\r\nCLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION...WHICH HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT \r\nIN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE\r\nHAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY \r\nINDICATES IT IS NOT AT THE EASTERN OF OF A EAST-WEST TROUGH...PART\r\nOF A COMPLEX ITCZ EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3C.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND\r\n25 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND AND AN EARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATING \r\n30 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/11.  NOT MUCH TO SAY TRACKWISE.  \r\nLOWELL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE LOWELL ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.\r\nALL GUIDANCE SAVE LBAR AGREES WITH THIS...AND SO WILL THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE GFS/AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGESTS THAT LOWELL WILL RUN UNDER\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AT 200 MB IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  ALSO...\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL KEEPS THE SHEAR LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN 30 KT\r\nINTENSITY FOR 72 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LARGER...AND LIKELY TO \r\nBE MORE POWERFUL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3C TO THE WEST IS LIKELY\r\nTO EVENTUALLY KILL LOWELL.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE SHIPS...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS...AND THE INCREASED CONVECTION...THIS INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST WILL DELAY THE DEMISE OF LOWELL BY 12 HR.  HOWEVER...IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0300Z 12.6N 137.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1200Z 12.9N 138.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     26/0000Z 13.3N 140.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     26/1200Z 13.7N 142.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     27/0000Z 14.2N 144.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 148.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":11,"Date":"2002-10-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002\r\n \r\nIT IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND \r\nRECENT SSMI AND TRMM PASSES DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A LOW LEVEL \r\nCIRCULATION AND THERE IS NO RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS TO HELP.  THE \r\nINITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON USING A MOTION OF 275/10.  \r\nLOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK \r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES \r\nWITH THIS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL \r\nHOURS...NOT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEED SINCE I DO NOT KNOW \r\nWHERE THE CENTER IS...BUT ENOUGH TO BACK OFF FROM THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY WHICH BEGAN THE DISSIPATION PROCESS IN 12 HOURS.  THIS \r\nADVISORY WILL KEEP A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS \r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 20 \r\nKNOTS FROM 12 THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SHIPS ACTUALLY BRINGS THE WIND \r\nSPEED TO 40 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  ALL OF THIS IS PREDICATED ON THE \r\nEXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/0900Z 12.6N 138.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     25/1800Z 12.8N 139.8W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/0600Z 13.3N 141.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     26/1800Z 13.9N 143.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/0600Z 14.4N 145.1W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/0600Z 15.3N 148.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":12,"Date":"2002-10-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE...ALTHOUGH A\r\nMICROWAVE PASS AT 06Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS PROBABLY ON\r\nTRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 35 KT...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AND MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE \r\nBRINGS LOWELL BACK UP TO 50 KT.  FOR NOW...I AM NOT GOING TO CHANGE \r\nTHE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY TELLS US WHAT \r\nKIND OF CIRCULATION WE HAVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/1500Z 12.6N 139.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0000Z 12.8N 140.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1200Z 13.2N 142.3W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0000Z 13.7N 144.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 150.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":13,"Date":"2002-10-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002\r\n \r\nJUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE LOWELL HAD DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN \r\nWAVE...THE CIRRUS CLEARED ENOUGH TO LOCATE A CIRCULATION CENTER.  A \r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS REMAIN \r\nABOUT 30 KT.  THE SYSTEM LOOKS VERY RAGGED...WITH ONLY A SMALL \r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME LIMITED CONVECTION.  \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF LOWELL...SO \r\nITS PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENT DO NOT LOOK THAT GOOD.  FOR SOME \r\nREASON THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SEE THE SHEAR THAT I AM SEEING...AND \r\nBRINGS LOWELL UP TO 54 KT IN 72 HOURS.  I THINK IT IS JUST AS LIKELY \r\nTHAT LOWELL WILL DISSIPATE WELL BEFORE THEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE \r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT \r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nSINCE LOWELL IS CROSSING 140W...THE NEXT DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED \r\nBY CPHC UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA45 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER TCDCP5.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     25/2100Z 12.6N 140.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     26/0600Z 12.7N 141.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.0N 143.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.5N 145.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 147.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     28/1800Z 15.5N 150.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2002-11-14 04:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PST WED NOV 13 2002\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REALLY HAS NOT IMPROVED ANY OVER \r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SSMI MICROWAVE AND RECENT NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY \r\nINDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO \r\nFINALLY HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER.  AS A RESULT...THE \r\nSYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ANY \r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THERE IS DRY AIR IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST \r\nOF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY STRONG \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A BRIEF \r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AS THE DEPRESSION SWINGS \r\nAROUND AN UPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTH. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/14...BUT SINCE THERE HAS \r\nNOT BEEN A TRACKABLE CENTER UNTIL NOW THIS ESTIMATE IS HIGHLY \r\nUNCERTAIN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM \r\nGUIDANCE...ON THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS WEAK AND \r\nSHEARED. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0400Z 15.5N 110.9W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.2N 112.7W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.9N 114.8W    25 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 117.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 119.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 123.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2002-11-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST THU NOV 14 2002\r\n \r\nTD 16-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LAST 3 SSMI OVERPASSES \r\nINDICATE A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 45 NMI \r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nOF 30 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE \r\nOF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SOUTH \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THIS POSITION ESTIMATE AND MORE \r\nWESTWARD MOTION ARE BOTH BASED BASED PRIMARILY ON THE LAST 3 SSMI \r\nPOSITIONS. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SOUTH \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION \r\nIS STILL CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING OF THE \r\nCYCLONE BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE RESULT \r\nIS THAT THE DECOUPLED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD \r\nBY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nTHE GFS MODEL INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION AT LEAST 3 DEGREES TOO FAR \r\nSOUTH...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THAT SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE \r\nREMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS \r\nTAKE THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AND \r\nTHEN TURN IT MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nALL 3 SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO REPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR \r\n35 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE IS VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A \r\nTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONLY ABOUT A 12 HOUR WINDOW OF \r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE 50 KT UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWINDS DECAPITATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE \r\nSYSTEM UP TO 34 KT IN 12 HOURS AND 36 KT IN 24 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL \r\nWEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THAT AND DISSIPATION IN 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 15.4N 111.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.9N 113.1W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.3N 115.4W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.4N 117.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 119.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 124.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2002-11-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST THU NOV 14 2002\r\n \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM AND ARE DISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN \r\nFACT...IS QUITE STRONG AT THIS TIME.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE \r\nLATEST QUIKSCAT DATA.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER \r\nOVER THE SYSTEM AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM \r\nQUICKLY.  THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION BEGINS. HOWEVER...\r\nONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW \r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME SHEARED \r\nAND SHALLOW. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK...STEERED BY THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 15.5N 111.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N 114.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N 117.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2002-11-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST THU NOV 14 2002\r\n \r\nAS ANTICIPATED...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME \r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS NOW EXPOSED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING \r\nCONVECTION. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME EVEN \r\nSTRONGER...WEAKENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS CLEARLY SEEN ON VIS IMAGES SO...THERE IS A BETTER \r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE \r\nWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS AND A GENERAL WESTWARD \r\nTRACK...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL \r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 16.4N 112.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 114.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 115.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2002-11-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST THU NOV 14 2002\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS SHEARED...WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF \r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE LOW CLOUD \r\nLINES INDICATE A FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS.  THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT \r\nPASS MIGHT WELL REVEAL THAT THE WINDS ARE LOWER.  THE ENVIRONMENT OF \r\nTHE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY WITH STRONG WESTERLY \r\nSHEAR...SO A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nEARLIER TODAY WHEN THERE WAS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THE \r\nMOTION HAD A NORTHWARD COMPONENT.  NOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY \r\nEXPOSED THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED TO SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST.  THE \r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WITH THE SHALLOW FLOW \r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.  THE GFS...FOR \r\nREASONS UNKNOWN...INDICATES A MUCH FASTER MOTION TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 16.2N 112.7W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N 113.7W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 115.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N 116.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N 118.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2002-11-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E REMAINS SHEARED AT THIS TIME DUE TO\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REMOVED \r\nFROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THAT CONVECTION \r\nIS WEAKER AND LESS CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER.  RECENT QUIKSCAT AND \r\nSSM/I DATA INDICATE A BAND OF 30 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...SO THAT REMAINS THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE A\r\nGENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nSURVIVES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE OF SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE CURRENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL \r\nWESTERLIES WILL PERSIST AND/OR INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.\r\nTHUS...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THERE WILL LIKELY BE BURSTS OF \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION FOR A DAY OR SO...AFTER\r\nWHICH IT SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW THAT WILL LIKELY\r\nDISSIPATE BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 15.8N 113.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.6N 114.5W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 115.8W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N 117.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.5N 119.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2002-11-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 AM PST FRI NOV 15 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED AND CONSISTS OF \r\nA SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE \r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE \r\nAND ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/8...A LITTLE FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE \r\nPREVIOUS MOTION ESTIMATE.  A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK IS \r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE UNDER STEERING FROM A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nAND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 15.3N 114.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.1N 115.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 116.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.9N 118.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.9N 120.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2002-11-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2002\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED AND CONSISTS OF\r\nA SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER THAT KEEPS FIRING UP.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1244Z\r\nOVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KNOTS\r\nAND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE ARE ANY\r\nSTRONGER.  VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO SOON DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/7.  A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE UNDER STEERING FROM A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 15.1N 115.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 14.9N 116.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.7N 118.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.6N 120.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2002-11-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM PST FRI NOV 15 2002\r\n \r\nAFTER GENERATING VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY 70 KT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE SHEAR\r\nOVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PROBABLY ABOUT 80 KT OR SO.  THERE\r\nIS VIRTUALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.  GIVEN THE HIGH\r\nSHEAR...IT IS VERY UNLIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN\r\nANY CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW INTERMITTENT PUFFS.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 14.7N 116.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 14.3N 117.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.1N 118.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-04-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE \r\nEASTERN U.S. HAS SHOWN INCREASED ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE \r\nSUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM TAFB AND TROPICAL 35 KT FROM SAB.  AS THE \r\nCYCLONE IS UNDER A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE SYSTEM WILL \r\nBE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL STORM RATHER THAN A TROPICAL STORM.  RECENT \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT THE ESTIMATES...INDICATING WIDESPREAD 30-40 KT \r\nWINDS WITHIN 60-75 NM OF THE CENTER AND PEAK WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT. \r\nTHE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OVERDONE DUE TO PRECIPITATION...SO THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 110/9.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT ANA IS \r\nEMBEDDED IN IN FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD.  ADDITIONALLY...THE\r\nSTORM IS SOUTHWEST OF A BAROCLINIC LOW NEAR 39N60W.  THIS \r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD MOVE THE STORM ON A BASIC EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO \r\nEASTWARD TRACK.  GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO... \r\nALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF MOTION \r\nALONG WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SPREAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK \r\nWILL TAKE THE STORM DOWN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST \r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET.\r\n\r\nANA IS ONLY THE SECOND KNOWN SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM \r\nIN APRIL...WITH THE OTHER OCCURRING IN 1992.  THAT SYSTEM MET ITS \r\nDEMISE DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND ANA SHOULD DO LIKEWISE AS \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER IT OPENS UP AND EXPOSES THE CYCLONE TO \r\nTHE WESTERLIES.  THIS IS FORECAST BY ALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS...AND \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR ANA TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 HR.  \r\nTHERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE \r\nBAROCLINIC LOW TO THE NORTHEAST MAY SWEEP INTO ANA AND DESTROY ITS \r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THUS...THE FORECAST OF ANA SURVIVING TO \r\n72 HR MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST/ADVISORY IS PROVIDED IN THE \r\n3-DAY FORECAST FORMAT OF 2002 RATHER THAN THE 5-DAY FORECAST FORMAT \r\nDEVELOPED FOR THE 2003 SEASON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0300Z 31.3N  66.0W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1200Z 30.8N  64.7W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0000Z 30.3N  62.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  59.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0000Z 30.0N  56.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0000Z 30.5N  50.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-04-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON APR 21 2003\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT.  IN\r\nFACT...AT THE MOMENT...THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY TO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.\r\nA CURRENT INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS RETAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  IF CURRENT TRENDS\r\nCONTINUE...ANA COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...120/9...IS TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ANA IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A BROAD\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT WITH\r\nTIME...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE NOGAPS IS SOMEWHAT\r\nFASTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/0900Z 30.4N  65.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     21/1800Z 29.8N  63.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/0600Z 29.2N  61.5W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     22/1800Z 29.2N  58.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  55.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/0600Z 30.0N  49.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-04-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON APR 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SHEARED FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT\r\n...BUT THERE IS STILL A SMALL ARE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nCENTER.  LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 1.5\r\nAND 2.5 SUBTROPICAL AND RECENT SSMI WIND ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 35\r\nKNOTS...SO ANA IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nIS FOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/10.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nWESTERLY FLOW AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN EAST TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITLE TO THE RIGHT OF A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/1500Z 29.8N  64.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.5N  62.4W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1200Z 29.3N  59.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.6N  56.1W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  53.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  47.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-04-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON APR 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 105/14.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN\r\nACCELERATING EAST TO EAST NORTH-EASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nIS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND ST2.5 FROM SAB.  A\r\n1023Z QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED 35 KT WIND SPEEDS NORTHWEST\r\nAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SHEAR\r\nWEAKENING THE STORM OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY \r\nAS EARLIER.  THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY SEPARATED \r\nFROM THE LARGER CLOUD SYSTEM THAT IT WAS EARLIER CONNECTED TO...AND \r\nIT HAS BEEN SUGGESTED THAT ANA HAS BECOME TROPICAL.  THE DEMARCATION \r\nBETWEEN TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL IS A BIT MURKY AND I WILL LEAVE ANA \r\nAS SUBTROPICAL FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     21/2100Z 29.4N  62.4W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.4N  59.9W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  56.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  53.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     23/1800Z 31.0N  49.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  42.0W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-04-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON APR 21 2003\r\n \r\nANA LOOKED RATHER TROPICAL THIS EVENING...WITH TROPICAL SATELLITE \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.  SSM/I AND TRMM \r\nOVERPASSES NEAR 2330Z EVEN SUGGESTED AN EYE MIGHT BE FORMING.  \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE 00Z THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.  \r\nADDITIONALLY...AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 2200Z DID NOT SHOW A WARM CORE.  \r\nWHILE THIS IS NOT TOTALLY CONCLUSIVE...AS THE AMSU INSTRUMENT MAY \r\nNOT FULLY RESOLVE A WARM CORE IN A COMPACT SYSTEM LIKE ANA...IT WILL \r\nREMAIN A SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.  MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 35 KT \r\nBASED ON THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND A 33-KT 1003-MB SHIP SOUTH OF \r\nTHE CENTER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT ANA \r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 100/15...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS CLOSER \r\nTO 090/15.  ANA REMAINS EMBEDDED DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF\r\nA CYCLONE NEAR 38N60W.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM EASTWARD FOR\r\n12 HR OR SO WITH A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER.  ALL \r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nWHICH IS BASICALLY A SLIGHTLY FASTER UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nAFTER 48 HR A FRONTAL SYSTEM COMING FROM THE NORTH MAY TURN ANA BACK \r\nTO AN EASTWARD MOTION...WHICH IS NOTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN \r\nINDICATE 30 KT OF SHEAR OVER ANA.  THIS HAS NOT YET SERIOUSLY\r\nIMPACTED THE CYCLONE...BUT INCREASING SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AFTER 12-24 HR.  THE \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS \r\nDISSIPATING IN 72 HR...BUT ANA COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER.  THERE IS A \r\nCHANCE THAT INSTEAD OF DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM COULD CONTINUE \r\nEASTWARD AS A EXTRATROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED FRONTAL \r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0300Z 29.4N  60.5W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1200Z 29.4N  58.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.9N  54.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1200Z 30.7N  50.4W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0000Z 31.4N  46.5W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  40.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-04-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2003\r\n \r\nYESTERDAY...DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF THE CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WAS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL.  \r\nRECENTLY...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF \r\nWISCONSIN-MADISON CIMSS SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER ANA. \r\nLATEST AMSU DATA CONTINUE TO INDICATE LITTLE OR NO WARM CORE \r\nSTRUCTURE.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANA TO BECAME A TRUE \r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON CLOSE.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT STRONG \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO PERSIST OVER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS...SO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BY THE END \r\nOF THE PERIOD ANA SHOULD BE DISSIPATING OR WILL HAVE MERGED WITH AN \r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 090/14.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY \r\nTHE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.  \r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME ACCELERATION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LATE \r\nIN THE PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE \r\nEAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOME SLOWING SHOULD OCCUR DUE TO RISING \r\nSURFACE PRESSURES TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS \r\nIDEA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/0900Z 29.6N  59.2W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     22/1800Z 29.8N  56.6W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/0600Z 30.7N  52.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  48.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/0600Z 32.0N  45.0W    25 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/0600Z 32.0N  40.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-04-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2003\r\n \r\nAT 09Z...A SHIP REPORTED 44 KT AT A POSITION ABOUT 50 N MI SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  BASED ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS WELL AS AMSU TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE DATA\r\nWHICH SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WARM CORE NEAR THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...ANA IS\r\nCHANGED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL STATUS.\r\n\r\nCIMSS CLOUD MOTION VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT OVER ANA AND\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH 72 HOURS.  WILL\r\nTHE PRESENT SHEAR KILL THE STORM?  THE SHIPS MODEL AND UKMET SHOW\r\nDISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS MAINTAIN A 40\r\nTO 50 KT CIRCULATION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS THE CYCLONE WITH SOME WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/14.  ANA IS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY CURRENT\r\nAND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HOURS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE\r\nUKMET MODEL SHOWS A STRANGE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH...THEN\r\nDISSIPATION...IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND SPEED RADII AND 12-FT WAVE HEIGHT RADII ARE INCREASED\r\nBASED ON SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/1500Z 29.8N  57.5W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0000Z 30.5N  54.6W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1200Z 31.4N  51.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0000Z 31.9N  47.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1200Z 32.4N  45.0W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  40.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-04-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2003\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PERSISTS OVER ANA...THE INITIAL \r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION \r\nBY 72 HOURS UNDER 40 KT SHEAR WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON \r\nTO A 40 TO 45 KT STORM.  THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT ANA WILL MERGE \r\nWITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AFTER \r\n72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nWITH A FORECAST OF SLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/15.  ANA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY \r\nCURRENT AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 \r\nHOURS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.  IT IS POSSIBLE \r\nTHAT ANA WILL AFFECT THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN 4 OR 5 \r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND SPEED RADII ARE INCREASED TO 200 N MI IN THE SOUTHERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON SHIP REPORTS.  THESE RADII ARE REDUCED TO A \r\nSMALLER 150 N MI IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     22/2100Z 29.8N  55.7W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  53.2W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  49.8W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/0600Z 31.9N  46.7W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     24/1800Z 32.1N  44.3W    40 KTS\r\n72HR VT     25/1800Z 32.5N  38.0W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-04-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/16.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ANA REMAINS ON COURSE AND IS \r\nBEING STEERED EASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE \r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL GRADUALLY LIFT THE CYCLONE SLOWLY \r\nPOLEWARD WITH TIME AS THE PRESENT AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN SLOWLY \r\nBREAKS DOWN AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL...WHILE ALSO SHIFTING SLOWLY \r\nNORTHWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS \r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...THEN BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTWARD BY \r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE AZORES \r\nAMPLIFIES AND DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... \r\nBY THAT TIME ANA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AS IT BEGINS \r\nTO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40 KT. CONVECTION HAS \r\nWAXED AND WANED MOST OF THE DAY...BUT HAS MADE A BRIEF COMEBACK TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE \r\nOVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A DECREASE IN CONVECTION AND THIS IS \r\nINDICATED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...35 \r\nKT...AND 30 KT FROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE ANA \r\nIS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BY 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS \r\nMAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE CONVECTION \r\nAND A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE APPEAR TO LIE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AS \r\nFAR EAST AS ABOUT 45W LONGITUDE. EAST OF THAT...HOWEVER...AN  \r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE AZORES HAS NO CONVECTION \r\nASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE WITH ANA \r\nONCE IT REACHES THAT SAME REGION BY 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE \r\nSHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES ANA IN 36 HOURS AND THAT IS A VIABLE \r\nPOSSIBILITY GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT WILL AFFECT THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0300Z 30.2N  53.9W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1200Z 30.9N  51.3W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0000Z 31.5N  48.1W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1200Z 31.9N  45.3W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0000Z 32.2N  42.8W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     26/0000Z 33.0N  35.5W    35 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-04-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED APR 23 2003\r\n\r\nANA DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE DEEP \r\nCONVECTION IS SHEARED WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  ANA MAY NOT \r\nHOLD ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH LONGER...AS SURFACE DATA AND \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FRONTAL FEATURES A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO \r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER THE \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY OCCUR SOONER DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY \r\nOF THE AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC ZONES.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ANA \r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EASTWARD \r\nTRACK...ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES.  \r\nNUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST \r\nTRAJECTORY...BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE \r\nGFDL/U.K. MET/NOGAPS/AVN(GFS)...GUNA...CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/0900Z 30.7N  52.0W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     23/1800Z 31.1N  49.4W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     24/0600Z 31.8N  46.2W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     24/1800Z 32.1N  43.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  40.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     26/0600Z 33.5N  35.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-04-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED APR 23 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF ANA NO LONGER LOOKS TROPICAL.\r\n ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER AND HAS NO CURVATURE.  THIS CLOUDINESS APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME\r\nPART OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE. ANA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLATER TODAY...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REAPPEAR.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BELOW 35 KT WITH NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NO BANDING.  A 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS FROM\r\nLAST NIGHT ALSO SHOWED NO WINDS ABOVE 30 KT.  HOWEVER THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KT BASED ON A 03Z SHIP REPORT OF 41 KT\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 110 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN A NEAR-STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM FOR 72 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR THE AZORES IN\r\nABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/16 BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CLOUD\r\nCENTER THAT IS POORLY DEFINED AND THE PAST 12 HOUR MOTION.  ANA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EASTWARD\r\nTRACK...ALONG THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nMODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRAJECTORY...BUT\r\nCONTINUE TO DIFFER IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/1500Z 31.7N  50.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0000Z 32.4N  48.3W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     24/1200Z 32.9N  45.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     25/0000Z 33.4N  43.1W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  40.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     26/1200Z 34.5N  34.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-04-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED APR 23 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...SO ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR AT LEAST SIX MORE\r\nHOURS.  THE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KT ALTHOUGH THE LAST REAL\r\nEVIDENCE OF THIS SPEED WAS A 03Z SHIP REPORT.  WITH STRONG SHEAR\r\nCONTINUING AND COLDER SSTS AHEAD...THIS SYSTEM HAS NO HOPE HAS A\r\nTROPICAL SYSTEM.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE SYSTEM\r\nTHROUGH THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AS A 30 TO 40 KT SYSTEM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING AND THEN SLIGHT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/09.  THIS REDUCTION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS BASED ON THE LOCATION OF A RATHER POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL\r\nCLOUD CENTER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH HIGHLY\r\nVARYING FORWARD SPEEDS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION.  OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     23/2100Z 32.1N  50.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/0600Z 32.5N  48.6W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     24/1800Z 33.0N  46.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     25/0600Z 33.6N  43.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     25/1800Z 33.9N  39.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     26/1800Z 34.5N  33.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-04-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED APR 23 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IT IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO\r\nSEPARATE THE CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OF ANA FROM THE\r\nNEARBY FRONTAL ZONE.  LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS OF 35 KNOTS NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER PRIMARILY WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ONLY 20 TO 25\r\nKNOTS TO THE SOUTH.  WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n\r\nIF THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL BY NOW...IT SHOULD BECOME ONE IN\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION PROVIDED BY PENN STATE UNIVERSITY.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER COLD WATER AND BECOME\r\nFULLY EXTRATROPICAL.  A FEW CELLS OF CONVECTION MAY STILL RE-DEVELOP\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nANA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 80 DEGREES ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nNOWHERE TO GO BUT EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WELL\r\nESTABLISHED WESTERLIES. ON THE LONGER RANGE...MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS BRING A SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT EXTRATROPICAL ANA TOWARD THE\r\nEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR THE AZORES. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THE EARLY SEASON TROPICAL STORM\r\nANA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     24/0300Z 32.3N  48.9W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     24/1200Z 32.5N  47.0W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n24HR VT     25/0000Z 33.0N  44.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n36HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  41.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n48HR VT     26/0000Z 34.0N  37.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n72HR VT     27/0000Z 36.5N  27.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-06-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IN\r\nTHE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. THIS IS\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nCURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS DEEP CONVECTION...SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE OR POORLY-DEFINED...WHICH IS COMMON ON\r\nDEPRESSIONS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS\r\nA VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAY EVEN BECOME A TROPICAL WAVE\r\nBY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 16\r\nKNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW. A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD...UP TO 48\r\nHOURS. THEREAFTER...A FEW MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK AND THE OTHERS SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE\r\nWESTERLY TRACK...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WOULD NOT BE SO HOSTILE\r\nFOR WEAKENING.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z  9.6N  41.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z  9.8N  44.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 10.5N  47.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 11.5N  49.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 12.5N  52.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N  56.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  60.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N  63.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-06-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB\r\nWASHINGTON INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION ON IR IMAGES...AND THIS PLAYS A MAJOR ROLE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE.  THEREFORE IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES...TO CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...BEFORE UPGRADING THE CYCLONE.  IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT A DAY OR SO BEFORE THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREAFTER...STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nWESTERLIES SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND IT MAY EVEN\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/17...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS ALSO LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC\r\nREASONING.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY\r\nEASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP GFS...SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF 50W LONGITUDE.  THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nLESS PRONOUNCED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH\r\nDE-AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z  9.9N  43.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 10.3N  45.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 11.2N  48.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 12.1N  50.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 13.0N  53.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N  57.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  61.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N  64.5W    25 KT\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-06-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT...WHILE AFWA IS AT 30\r\nKT. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS WAS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED TO A TROPICAL STORM...OR EVEN WHETHER THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nUNCERTAINTIES AND LACK OF CONVECTION THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT A DAY OR SO\r\nBEFORE THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND BEGINS TO\r\nWEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION\r\nAFTER 96 HOURS BUT THIS MIGHT OCCUR WELL BEFORE THEN. SHOULD THE\r\nSYSTEM STAY FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT WOULD FIND\r\nITSELF IN A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HAVE SOMEWHAT\r\nBETTER PROSPECTS FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/17. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NCEP\r\nGFS...SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W LONGITUDE. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND\r\nTHE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE\r\nAMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH THESE UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES DEPENDS ON\r\nHOW DEEP A CIRCULATION THE CYCLONE CAN MAINTAIN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nIS ALSO A BIT FASTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z  9.8N  44.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.2N  47.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 11.0N  50.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 11.7N  52.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 12.5N  55.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 14.0N  60.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N  64.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-06-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS LOSING ITS BATTLE WITH CLIMATOLOGY.  IN\r\nFACT...IT PROBABLY HAS ALREADY LOST AS THERE APPEARS TO BE NO\r\nCLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  WHAT PASSES FOR A SURFACE\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMUM IS DISPLACED ABOUT 85 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SYSTEM FOR A BIT\r\nUNTIL WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT A CIRCULATION IS NOT GOING TO\r\nREDEVELOP.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17.  IN ITS CURRENT STATE OF\r\nDISORGANIZATION...AND UNLESS THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DEVELOPMENT\r\nOVERNIGHT...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE ONLY A LIMITED INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 50 W.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND SHALLOW\r\nLAYER BAM MODELS.   \r\n\r\nWITH THE DEPRESSION TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IT SHOULD BE ABLE\r\nTO STAY IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...ITS\r\nSMALL SIZE...LOW LATITUDE...AND RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT MAKES\r\nTHE SYSTEM QUITE VULNERABLE TO THE SHEAR THAT IS PRESENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER ANTICIPATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY WITHIN 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH\r\nFORECAST POINTS ARE BEING PROVIDED OUT TO 72 HOURS IN THE EVENT THE\r\nSYSTEM HANGS TOGETHER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z  9.8N  46.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.0N  49.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 10.4N  52.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.0N  55.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.5N  59.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.5N  65.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-06-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO NO LONGER HAS\r\nA CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A STRONG TROPICAL\r\nWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH\r\nAND WILL PROBABLY BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS AND...IF NECESSARY...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE\r\nTHE WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z  10.0N 47.8W...DISSIPATING    \r\n  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-06-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nHAS FORMED OVERNIGHT TO GO ALONG WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS\r\nPERSISTED FOR A SEVERAL DAYS.  THE SHIP H3GQ REPORTED 38 KNOTS IN\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION AT 12Z.  THE SHIP IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  WITH THE CONVECTION AND STRONGEST WINDS\r\nLOCATED RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER...THIS CYCLONE MIGHT BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL...BUT SINCE THE ORIGINS OF THE WEATHER\r\nWERE TROPICAL...A TROPICAL DESIGNATION IS USED.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14 ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS NO GOOD HISTORY TO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TURNING NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED\r\nTHAT THE 14 KNOTS USED FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOLLOWS THIS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT\r\nMENTIONED ABOVE.  WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BACKS OFF A LITTLE TO 50 KNOTS SINCE NONE OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANY STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 23.5N  91.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.9N  92.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 26.8N  93.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 28.7N  94.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 30.2N  94.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 31.3N  93.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 32.3N  90.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-06-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS\r\nAFTERNOON INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT VERY\r\nWELL DEFINED.  THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT TURNING THE STORM NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE\r\nALSO SHIFTS THE TRACKS EASTWARD ABOUT 100 N MI FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS PARTIALLY DUE\r\nTO SHIFTING THE INITIAL POSITION EASTWARD.  THIS ALSO REQUIRES AN\r\nEASTWARD SHIFT TO THE WATCH AREA WHICH WILL ALSO BE CHANGED TO A\r\nWARNING.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB...NOT VERY\r\nLOW...BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST OF THE STORM IS LARGE.\r\nA 15Z SHIP REPORT OF 40 KNOTS ABOUT 80 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\n...ALONG WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS...IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING\r\nTHE WIND SPEED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 62\r\nKNOTS IN 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  IN CONTRAST\r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING.  ALSO THE PRESENT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.   THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A COMPROMISE 55 KNOTS AT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 24.8N  91.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 26.4N  91.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 28.5N  92.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 30.5N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 31.5N  90.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 33.0N  86.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-06-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUN 29 2003\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FIXES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF BILL HAD MOVED NORTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF BILL IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nCDO-LOOKING FEATURE. INSTEAD...SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE COLD\r\nCLOUD CANOPY. THIS ALSO YIELDS A SHEAR PATTERN INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF ABOUT 45 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LAST RECON REPORTED SURFACE\r\nWIND ADJUSTMENT OF 43 KT. THERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE...BUT THE OVERALL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12. WHILE RECON FIXES SUGGEST A\r\nNORTH TO SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH TRACK...MY FEELING IS THAT THIS\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN DUE PRIMARILY AS A RESAULT OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE\r\nCENTER CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...RATHER THAN AN ACTUAL\r\nTRANSLATIONAL MOTION. LATEST UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS PREVIOUSLY ALONG THE GULF COAST HAS MIGRATED\r\nNORTHWARD TO ABOUT 30N LATITUDE WITH MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS\r\nTHE MISSOURI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN AND THERE IS A\r\nFAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE\r\nGFDL TAKING BILL INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY IN 72 HOURS WHILE THE UKMET\r\nHAS BILL IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AT THE SAME TIME. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nDUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD LOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BY THE MODELS ON LANDFALL\r\nOCCURRING SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST BY LATE\r\nMONDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT UNTIL JUST\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL. WATER TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY BENEATH BILL ARE\r\nAROUND 83F/28C AND ARE AROUND 86F/30C ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST. WITH WARMER WATER AHEAD AND SLIGHTLY DECREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BILL COULD STRENGTHEN\r\nINTO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL BRINGS BILL UP TO 62 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...IN 24 HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA\r\nCOAST. IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TUCKS IN UNDER THE COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nLATER TONIGHT...THEN A STRONGER CYCLONE THAN FORECAST WOULD RESULT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 26.3N  91.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 27.6N  91.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 29.6N  91.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 31.9N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 33.3N  88.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 35.0N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 36.0N  75.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-06-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH BILL. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT CLEARLY OBSERVED\r\nBUT IT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THERE IS\r\nSMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BILL TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL. A NEW RECON WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 12 UTC.\r\n \r\nBILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA...AND NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL LATER\r\nTODAY. TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS BILL NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE\r\nCOAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BILL OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD\r\nTURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. \r\n \r\nONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT TRACK OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS CAN BE\r\nEXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 27.6N  91.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 29.2N  91.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 32.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 34.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 35.0N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 36.0N  80.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 37.0N  72.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-06-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUN 30 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/12.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA\r\nIN 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT\r\nTURNING THE REMNANT LOW OVER LAND TOWARD THE EAST AS THE STORM\r\nENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THEREFORE THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nFALLEN TO 1001 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO\r\n50 KNOTS BASED ON A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 66 KNOTS SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...THE WIND SPEED CAN STILL INCREASE DURING THE\r\nSEVERAL HOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nDO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OR THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS\r\nCAN BE EXPERIENCED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 28.8N  91.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  91.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 32.7N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 34.6N  88.7W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  86.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  80.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-06-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY WOBBLE AS THE CENTER\r\nLOOKED RATHER COMPLEX AS VIEWED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE.  A 020/9\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY.  THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS\r\nAS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS BILL\r\nDISSIPATING OVER TENNESSEE BY 96 HOURS WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE BRING THE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE BUT DISSIPATES BILL AFTER 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS AT THE COAST.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM TERREBONE BAY\r\nINCLUDE A 997 MB PRESSURE AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 50 KNOTS.\r\nWINDS OVER THE WATER WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 35 KNOTS FOR SEVERAL\r\nMORE HOURS...WHILE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS\r\nTHE STORM MOVES FURTHER INLAND.\r\n \r\nASIDE FROM WINDS AND SURGE AT THE COAST...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A\r\nSERIOUS THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...\r\nAND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 29.5N  90.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 30.8N  90.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.9N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 34.8N  86.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 36.0N  84.4W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 37.5N  79.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-07-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2003\r\n \r\nBILL STILL LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nIMAGERY. IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS THE BEST IT HAS LOOKED\r\nDURING THE RELATIVELY SHORT LIFETIME OF THIS CYCLONE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 35 KT SUSTAINED WIND REPORT AT\r\nKGPT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 50 TO 60 KT JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET\r\nABOVE THE SURFACE AS NOTED N THE SLIDELL/KLIX RADAR IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. BILL HAS BEEN TRACKING\r\nSTEADILY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST FEW HOURS AT A MUCH SLOWER\r\nSPEED THAN IT WAS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE\r\nAMONG THE VARIOUS NHC FORECAST MODELS CONCERNING THE TRACK\r\nDIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nWITH THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS BEING THE FASTEST. BOTH OF THOSE\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN A SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD AND HAVE THE REMNANTS OF BILL NEAR THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN\r\nNEW JERSEY COASTS IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IN 36 TO 48 HOURS BILL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LINK UP WITH A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nMUCH SLOWER AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT BILL IS WELL INLAND STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND BILL\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS...AND SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE EVEN\r\nPOSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS MOBILE BAY FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS.  WHILE\r\nBILL MAY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nGRADUALLY ACQUIRING A GREATER POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT\r\nTORNADIC ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY WHEN\r\nAFTERNOON HEATING WILL HELP TO MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE MORE UNSTABLE.\r\nIN ADDITION...COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL REMAIN A PROBLEM\r\nTONIGHT ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY INLAND FRESH\r\nFLOODING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 30.8N  90.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  89.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 34.3N  87.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 35.7N  85.1W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 36.8N  82.2W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW \r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 37.5N  78.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bill","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-07-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2003\r\n\r\nBILL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FAR INLAND AND HAS BECOME \r\nPRIMARILY A HEAVY RAIN EVENT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nINDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1003 MB AND WINDS ARE\r\n25 TO 30 KNOTS. STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE COAST FROM EASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. \r\n\r\nBILL SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS BUT A REMNANT LOW\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSTATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE\r\nHEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nITS PATH. \r\n\r\nAT LONGER RANGE...BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WEAKEN THE REMNANT\r\nLOW AND DO NOT FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 31.8N  89.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 33.1N  87.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 35.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 36.5N  83.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 38.0N  80.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bill","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-07-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/14.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN DISSIPATING AFTER\r\n48 HOUR OVER THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND AS THE DEPRESSION\r\nMERGES WITH THE CIRCULATION OF AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THAT IS\r\nMOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CANADA.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS LOCATED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHICH SUGGEST A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND WINDS LESS THAN 25 KNOTS.\r\nTHE CENTER VIEWED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES IS DISPLACED\r\nCONSIDERABLY EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAIN AND INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A SERIOUS THREAT TO\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IN CONNECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER. \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 33.2N  87.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 34.6N  85.7W    20 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  82.0W    20 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 36.5N  79.0W    20 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 37.5N  75.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-07-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAS A MESS OF\r\nCONFLICTING SIGNALS TODAY.  ON ONE SIDE...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nWAS THAT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AS HIGH AS 45 KT FROM TAFB.  ON THE OTHER SIDE...THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH MADE SEVERAL PASSES THROUGH THE\r\nAPPARENT CENTER AND FOUND NO CLOSED CIRCULATION.  JUST AS THE PLANE\r\nWAS LEAVING THE AREA AT 18Z IT FOUND 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...\r\nINDICATING A POORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND PRESSURES OF\r\n1006-1007 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE WAVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE.  THE 45 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A\r\n57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 280/25.  CLAUDETTE IS SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN A FAST EAST TO\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nSTORM WILL APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL WEAKEN\r\nFURTHER AFTER 48 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U. S..  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING\r\nA RAPID WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY\r\nDECELERATION AND A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE\r\nWATCHED IS THAT THE TROUGH COULD TURN CLAUDETTE MORE NORTHWARD THAN\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER... CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE WILL BE\r\nWEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN 72-96 HR...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A SLOWER\r\nAND MORE WESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS...AND AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT RUN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW TO THE WEST IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN\r\nFAVORABLE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL\r\nTHE CENTER REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER SOME WEAKENING\r\nOVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE WIND RADII ARE FAIRLY SMALL...OTHER NEAR-GALE WINDS\r\nCONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AWAY FROM\r\nCLAUDETTE.  PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS FROM THE TROPICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER AND THE WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 15.0N  71.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.8N  74.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 16.9N  79.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  82.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.3N  86.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N  90.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  92.5W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 24.0N  94.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-07-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE HAS AN OUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WELL DEFINED\r\nBANDING FEATURES. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BARELY CLOSED OFF A\r\nSMALL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1000\r\nMB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 72 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET SUGGESTING THAT\r\nCLAUDETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED 55 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LOW AHEAD OF CLAUDETTE...WHICH COULD\r\nCAUSE SOME SHEAR...IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN LEAVING\r\nA FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IN\r\nADDITION...THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS HIGH. THEREFORE... CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE YUCATAN PENSISULA AS A\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 22 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHING A\r\nDEEP EASTERLY MEAN FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH. IN THE SHORT TERM...24 TO 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION\r\nUNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE FORCING CLAUDETTE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF NORTHERN YUCATAN. AT LONGER RANGE...THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS IF THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OR NOT. THIS VARIES WITH THE MODEL YOU PICK.\r\n \r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 15.2N  73.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  80.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N  84.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N  87.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 21.0N  90.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.0N  92.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 25.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-07-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENCOUNTERED A SMALL BAND OF FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS NEAR 85 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 04Z...BUT MORE\r\nRECENTLY COULD ONLY FIND 55 KNOT WINDS IN THE SAME AREA.  THE 85\r\nKNOT OBSERVATION COULD BE USED TO UPGRADE CLAUDETTE TO A HURRICANE.\r\nBUT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASED TO 1004 MB AND THE HIGH\r\nWINDS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN TRANSITORY...THE OFFICIAL ONE-MINUTE\r\nSURFACE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS CLAUDETTE TO 76 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CDO FEATURE DISTORTED...THE\r\nOUTER CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE A\r\nFLATTENING OF THE WEST SIDE OUTFLOW BY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. \r\nTHESE FEATURES ALONG WITH THE RISE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE ARE SIGNS OF\r\nINHIBITING THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS\r\n...BUT THEN STRENGTHENING MAY RESUME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO\r\n70 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/22.  THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nDEEP EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 4 WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND MORE\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOWING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 3 DAYS\r\nBRINGING THE STORM ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOME BY DAY 5 WITH THE\r\nGFS MODEL SHOWING A LOCATION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE\r\nNOGAPS HAS THE CENTER OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES.\r\n\r\nI HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO CONTACT THE NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF\r\nMEXICO BY TELEPHONE TO COORDINATE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 15.3N  75.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.7N  78.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 17.2N  82.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 18.7N  85.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N  88.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 22.0N  91.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 23.5N  92.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 25.0N  93.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-07-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS MORNING.  SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR HAS CAUSED THE CENTER TO BECOME INTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED ON THE\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION...AND A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT. \r\nBASED ON THIS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT...AND THIS MAY\r\nBE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  CLAUDETTE REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WHOSE WESTERN END IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR AS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nCLAUDETTE WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF\r\nTHE TROUGH...SO THE MOST LIKELY RESPONSE OF THE STORM IS A SLOW\r\nMOTION WHILE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA GRADUALLY DECELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HR\r\nAS CLAUDETTE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY\r\nA SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT BAMS AND NHC98 ARE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST...BUT COULD VERIFY IF CLAUDETTE WEAKENS FURTHER. \r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT THE CLAUDETTE VORTEX IS RATHER SMALL...SO\r\nTHERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT IF THE SHEAR PERSISTS THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE.  ASSUMING THAT DOES NOT\r\nHAPPEN...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF\r\nCLAUDETTE TO WEAKEN AFTER 12-24 HR AND THE SHEAR TO DECREASE.  THE\r\nLOW APPEARS STRONGER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN ANY OF THE MODEL\r\nFORECASTS FOR 12Z...SO IT WILL LIKELY HANG ON LONGER THAN THE\r\nMODELS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO CHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HR IN A\r\nMARGINAL AT BEST ENVIRONMENT...FOLLOWED BY STRENGTHENING AS THE\r\nCYCLONE APPROACHES YUCATAN.  BY THE TIME CLAUDETTE REACHES THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BE IN\r\nPLACE TO PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 15.5N  77.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.3N  80.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.6N  83.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.1N  86.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 20.5N  89.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 22.5N  91.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 24.0N  93.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-07-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003\r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE IS PRODUCING BURSTING-TYPE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nWITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION DURING THE BURSTS AND\r\nEXPOSED AT OTHER TIMES.  THE LAST TWO CENTER PASSES OF THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 65 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 20\r\nNM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 1001\r\nAND 1002 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. \r\nDESPITE THE SHEAR AND THE RAGGED CENTRAL CONVECTION... CLAUDETTE IS\r\nMAINTAINING AN OVERALL HEALTHY APPEARANCE WITH A LARGE BAND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN AND THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nCLAUDETTE REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHOSE\r\nWESTERN END IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  CLAUDETTE WILL\r\nLIKELY BE TOO FAR SOUTH AND WEST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH...SO THE STORM WILL LIKELY MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY WESTWARD AS PRESSURES\r\nINCREASE TO THE NORTH.  THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUALLY\r\nDECELERATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HR AS\r\nCLAUDETTE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY THE\r\nABOVE MENTIONED MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE RETAINS A SMALL CORE...AND THE ONGOING SHEAR COULD STILL\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS SHEARING PUNCH TO THE JAW\r\nHAS NOT BEEN A FATAL BLOW.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\nA WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND REDUCED SHEAR...AND WHILE THEY\r\nSTILL APPEAR TO DO THIS TOO SOON...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN CIRRUS\r\nCLOUD MOTIONS THAT THEY ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL IN YUCATAN...AND THERE IS A CHANCE CLAUDETTE COULD BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE BY THEN.  AFTER WEAKENING OVER LAND...THE STORM SHOULD\r\nRE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO IN A LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 16.0N  79.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.8N  82.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 18.3N  85.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 19.8N  88.1W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 21.2N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 23.0N  92.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 24.5N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 25.5N  95.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-07-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BY THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nLOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE CONVECTION AND THIS POSITION WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT FIXES\r\nFROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN\r\nOSCILLATING BETWEEN 1002 AND 1004 MB AND MAX WINDS HAVE DECREASED\r\nTO 50 KNOTS. ONE PLUS FOR CLAUDETTE IS THAT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO.\r\n\r\nALL GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND DEVELOP AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE. THIS WOULD BE A FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT BUT IT HAS NOT HAPPENED SO FAR. THEREFORE..NO CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS\r\nSTRONG. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME STRENGTHENING JUST BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL OVER YUCATAN EARLY FRIDAY...ASSUMING THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nWILL BE CORRECT. \r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 17 TO 20 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nA DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF STORM RESULTING IS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. BY THE TIME CLAUDETTE REACHES THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nBE WEAK AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION OF THE CONSENSUS OR\r\nAVERAGE OF THE GFS...UK AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL 72-H\r\nPOSITION IS NOT FAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE ABOVE ASSUMES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL SURVIVE THE HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 16.3N  81.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.2N  83.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N  86.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 20.5N  88.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 22.0N  90.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 24.0N  93.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 25.5N  94.5W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N  96.0W    70 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-07-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A SLOWING\r\nOF FORWARD SPEED AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nBREAKS DOWN.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.\r\nAFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...CLAUDETTE SHOULD BE DRIFTING SLOWLY OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS SHOW A\r\nTHREAT TO THE WESTERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 57 KNOTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A\r\n996 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  A RATHER LARGE AND COLD BUT DISTORTED CDO\r\nFEATURE HAS DEVELOPED.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN\r\nTHE 20-25 KNOT RANGE FOR 5 DAYS AND THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW\r\nMUCH CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THIS TIME.  IN CONTRAST THE GFDL\r\nMODEL AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 82 KNOTS BY DAY 4.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE CENTER\r\nMOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND AGAIN MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON DAY 3 THROUGH\r\nDAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 16.8N  82.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.8N  84.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 21.5N  89.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 23.3N  91.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 24.5N  93.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 25.5N  94.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 26.5N  96.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-07-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE HAS RE-ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 10 NM WIDE EYE AND A 988 MB\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE AT 1201Z SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 69 KT AT 700 MB AND A\r\nSOMEWHAT SUSPECT 78 KT AT 850 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.  THAT BEING SAID...THIS STRENGTHENING\r\nMAY HAVE BEEN A SHORT TERM BURST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE SECOND PASS OF\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE PRESSURE RISING TO 993 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LIKELY REFORMATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 300/14.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A BROKEN RECORD...THE SAME AS FOR THE\r\nPAST FEW DAYS.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW\r\nAND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. \r\nSOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nAFTER 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...\r\nAND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR BASED ON THE MEDIUM\r\nRANGE MODELS. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...CLAUDETTE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...ALTHOUGH\r\nAGAIN THEY ARE LIKELY TOO QUICK IN DOING SO.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES...ALTHOUGH IT\r\nMAY DO SO IN A RATHER UNSTEADY FASHION.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nWHILE OVER LAND...THEN RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nUNCERTAINTY HAS INCREASED FOR THE 3-5 DAY PART OF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...AS THE CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST THE LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE MAY WEAKEN BY THAT TIME. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONDITIONS WILL\r\nREMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 17.8N  83.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N  85.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.7N  87.6W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 22.3N  89.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N  91.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  93.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 25.5N  95.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N  97.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-07-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE AT 1530Z.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT...AND AN EYEWALL\r\nDROPSONDE INDICATED SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.\r\nTWO HOURS LATER...THE PLANE FOUND A FRAGMENTED WINDFIELD NEAR THE\r\nDECAYED EYEWALL...WITH WINDS LOWER AND PRESSURES HIGHER THAN\r\nMEASURED ON THE PREVIOUS PASS.  WHILE THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE\r\nOF 1005 MB...IT DID NOT GET A GOOD CENTER FIX AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nAND PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 60 KT AND 993 MB UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE\r\nARRIVES.  HOWEVER...THESE ARE LIKELY GENEROUS ESTIMATES.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT... SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT\r\nAN EXPOSED CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBLE\r\nRE-ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/12.  OTHER THAN\r\nTHAT...THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS A BROKEN RECORD...THE\r\nSAME AS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  CLAUDETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE EVEN\r\nSUGGESTS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR\r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...AND SIMILAR TO THE TRACK AFTER 72 HR\r\nBASED ON THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AT 120\r\nHR THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BETWEEN THE GFDL\r\nLANDFALL NEAR FREEPORT TEXAS AND THE UKMET LANDFALL NEAR TAMPICO\r\nMEXICO...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN THE THREAT AREA.\r\n \r\nWHILE CLAUDETTE HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THERE IS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THEOUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE STORM. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A GENERALLY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT THROUGH 96 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...ALBEIT LESS THAN FORECAST EARLIER.  THIS\r\nSTRENGTHENING MAY VERY WELL COME IN BURSTS AS SEEN THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 18.6N  84.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 19.9N  85.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.6N  87.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 23.1N  89.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 24.2N  91.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 25.5N  93.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N  95.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 26.0N  97.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-07-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2003\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECON.  IT APPEARS THAT \r\nEITHER THE CENTER BRIEFLY MOVED TO THE NORTHWEST FASTER THAN\r\nANTICIPATED OR REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. CLAUDETTE NOW\r\nCONSISTS OF A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST IN CONVECTIVE BANDS. IN\r\nFACT...THE RECON HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND A TRUE CENTER AND THE\r\nPOSITION USED HERE IS BASED ON SATELLITE AND A FEW WIND SHIFTS\r\nREPORTED BY THE RECON. \r\n\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45 KNOTS AND THAT IS\r\nPROBABLY OVERESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE SUDDEN AND UNEXPECTED WEAKENING\r\nOF CLAUDETTE...AND THE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR\r\nYUCATAN HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  \r\n\r\nONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT\r\nHAS A CHANGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN. IT IS HARD TO IGNORE THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS WHICH INSIST ON FORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWIND ENVIRONMENT.  DESPITE ALL THE UPS AND DOWN IN THE STRUCTURE OF\r\nCLAUDETTE...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED FAIRLY\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED. \r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14\r\nKNOTS. THIS MOTION PROBABLY INCLUDES THE ALLEDGED REFORMATION. THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND MISS\r\nTHE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE NORTHERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ONCE IT\r\nREACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN  ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS..NOGAPS AND\r\nUK GLOBAL MODELS.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 20.0N  85.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  89.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 24.5N  91.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 25.5N  93.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 26.0N  94.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N  96.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  98.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-07-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nTHE RECON HAD A VERY DIFFICULT TIME FINDING A CENTER BUT DID REPORT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THE MID 40 KT RANGE.  HOWEVER...SHIP\r\nELWX5...AUTOMATICALLY REPORTING AROUND EVERY 15 MINUTES...PAINTED A\r\nSURFACE WIND SPEED PROFILE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A MAXIMUM\r\nVALUE OF 50 KTS.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES OF THE CENTER FOR 0600 Z SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nCENTER WAS TO THE EAST OF COZUMEL.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF COZUMEL AND THE FACT THAT CANCUN WAS\r\nREPORTING 20 KTS FROM THE EAST I DECIDED TO PUT A CENTER JUST TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF COZUMEL. MY 0900 Z POSITION IS AN EXTRAPOLATION FROM\r\nTHE 0600 Z AND PUTS THE CENTER RIGHT AT THE SHORELINE JUST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF COZUMEL.   \r\n \r\nONCE CLAUDETTE MOVES AWAY FROM YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT\r\nSHOULD GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND RE-STRENGTHEN. ALL THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT CLAUDETTE MAY HAVE STALLED\r\nBRIEFLY...BUT IT SHOULD RESUME MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT\r\n12 KNOTS. LATER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND MISS THE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO SWING BY THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. CLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST ONCE IT REACHES THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS. THIS FORECAST IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFS..NOGAPS AND UK GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 21.0N  86.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 22.4N  88.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 23.9N  90.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 25.2N  92.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 25.8N  93.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 26.2N  95.2W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 26.2N  97.2W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 26.2N  99.1W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-07-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTER OF CLAUDETTE IS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BROADLY\r\nCURVED DEEP CONVECTION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTS FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1008 MB. \r\nBASED ON THIS AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT\r\nMIGHT BE A LITTLE SLOWER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CLAUDETTE...WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES BETWEEN LARGE ANTICYCLONES OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  ENOUGH RIDGING REMAINS\r\nEAST AND NORTHEAST OF CLAUDETTE TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION AS THE \r\nCYCLONE APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THE TROUGH.  AFTER 36\r\nHR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THE TROUGH SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN\r\nAND MOVE EASTWARD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD AND STEER\r\nCLAUDETTE MORE WESTWARD.  MOST NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH BAMD...NHC98...AND LBAR MOVE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nGO WITH THE WESTWARD TURN...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH\r\nOF THE RIO GRANDE IN ABOUT 96 HR.\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND IN SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. \r\nTHIS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY PREVENT STRENGTHENING FOR\r\n12-24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ACTUALLY\r\nDEVELOPS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DEVELOP THE ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nCLAUDETTE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND CANADIAN DEVELOP THE\r\nANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH WOULD EXPOSE THE\r\nSTORM TO 15-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO\r\nAGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS FEATURE TO PUT FULL FAITH IN THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...IF THE GFS AND CANADIAN VERIFY...\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD BE EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 21.6N  87.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 22.9N  88.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 24.3N  90.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 25.2N  91.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 25.8N  92.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  95.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N  97.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N 100.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-07-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS QUITE DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND\r\nTHERE ARE 3 OR 4 CLOUD SWIRLS/VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE\r\nMEAN CENTER.  THE STRONGEST REMAINING CONVECTION IS WELL EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  BASED ON THE 50-55 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED\r\nEARLIER BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARENCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS WEST OF CLAUDETTE...WITH A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nEXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 32N92W.  A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.  SURFACE AND\r\nRAWINSONDE DATA INDICATES LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THE TROUGH WILL REACH ITS\r\nMAXIMUM SOUTHERN EXTENT NEAR 85W OR EAST OF THE LONGITUDE OF\r\nCLAUDETTE...AND THAT THE TROUGH IS UNLIKELY TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE. \r\nMOST DYNAMIC GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY MOVING CLAUDETTE\r\nNORTHWEST FOR 24-48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN. \r\nTHE LBAR AND THE MM5 TAKE THE STORM TOWARD LOUISIANA...WHICH LOOKS\r\nSTRANGE IN LIGHT OF THE NORTHERLY 500 MB FLOW THAT ALL MODELS\r\nFORECAST IN THAT AREA.  THE UKMET HAS ALSO JUMPED FURTHER NORTH...\r\nBUT IS INCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS THUS DISCOUNTED\r\nFOR THE MOMENT.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE WESTWARD MODEL SUITE.\r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE REMAINS IN SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THIS AND THE\r\nCURRENT DISORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY PREVENT STRENGTHENING FOR\r\n12-24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ACTUALLY\r\nDEVELOPS.  THE NOGAPS IS NOW THE ONLY MODEL TO DEVELOP THE\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER CLAUDETTE.  THE UKMET...GFS...AND CANADIAN DEVELOP\r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH WOULD EXPOSE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR.  THIS LOOKS LIKE THE MOST\r\nLIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT IN RESPONSE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF CLAUDETTE\r\nSTRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...THE STORM COULD\r\nMOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nTHE CHANCES OF THIS APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE NOAA GULFSTREAM IV JET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION...WITH THE DATA TO BE USED IN THE 00Z MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 22.4N  88.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 23.5N  89.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 24.6N  91.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 25.3N  92.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 25.8N  93.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N  95.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 26.0N  98.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-07-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CLAUDETTE HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nBUT IT DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. IN FACT...THERE ARE\r\nSEVERAL SMALLER CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER ONE. THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN CHOSEN TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGER\r\nROTATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REPORTED A MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND...1500 FEET...OF 60 KNOTS AND SEVERAL OTHER\r\nPEAKS OF 45 AND 50 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 1008 MB. THESE\r\nWINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DUE TO THE POOR\r\nORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE\r\nCONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONG WINDS\r\nWERE MEASURED. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR SSW\r\nWINDS OVER CLAUDETTE INDICATING THAT THE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAXED AS\r\nANTICIPATED. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CHANGED THEIR TUNE AND THE GFS IS\r\nLEAVING THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BUT KEEPS A\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT NOT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.\r\nHOWEVER...ONLY AN UNEXPECTED SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD\r\nBRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED ON THE MOTION\r\nOF THE LARGE CIRCULATION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/11. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE WEAKENING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY\r\nDROPSONDES RELEASED FROM A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. THEREFORE...\r\nCLAUDETTE SHOULD SLOW DOWN IN THE CENTRAL GULF. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A\r\nRIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF CLAUDETTE...WILL FORCE\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE ON A WESTWARD TRACK AND EVEN SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE LASTEST TRACK MODEL\r\nRUN.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 22.9N  89.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 24.2N  91.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 25.0N  92.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  93.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 26.0N  94.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N  96.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 101.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-07-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nLITTLE HAS CHANGED IN CLAUDETTE.  SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nA SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE MEASURED.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES HAVE BEEN SHOWING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY OR\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER CLAUDETTES CENTER AND DATA FROM THE\r\nNOAA GULFSTREAM IV RECON...MEASURED FRIDAY AFTERNOON ...CONFIRMED\r\nTHAT THESE WINDS ARE IN THE 300 TO 250 MB LEVEL.  JUST ABOVE THIS\r\nLEVEL...AT 200 MB...THE DATA SHOWED GOOD ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR AT\r\nLEAST TWO MORE DAYS AND THEN CHANGE BEFORE LANDFALL ON DAY 3.  IF\r\nTHIS CHANGE DOES OCCUR THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP QUICKLY.  SO I AM\r\nSTILL CALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE NEAR LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nRECENTLY...THE RECON MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 51 KTS\r\nAND A 1007 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  ALSO...SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE AT\r\n45 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS IS A\r\nGRADUAL SLOWING DOWN AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 23.6N  90.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 24.5N  91.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 25.2N  92.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 25.7N  93.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 26.0N  95.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  97.1W    65 KT...LANDFALL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  99.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N 102.6W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-07-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nWITH SEVERAL LITTLE CLOUD SWIRLS PRANCING ABOUT...IT IS STILL\r\nDIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER FROM EITHER RECON OR SATELLITE\r\nDATA...BUT THE CYCLONE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE BASICALLY ON TRACK.\r\nTHERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS BEGINNING TO\r\nSLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10. CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...ALTHOUGH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS SOME HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER. AIRCRAFT REPORTS OF 55 KT WINDS AT 1000 FT\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 45\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING.  CLAUDETTE IS ALREADY WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WITH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM LOUISIANA WESTWARD...THE CURRENT\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND TO THE WEST WITHIN 36\r\nHOURS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE\r\nOVERALL STEERING CURRENT.  THUS A SLOWER MOTION IS EXPECTED AFTER\r\nTHE STORM TURNS TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN CLAUDETTE IN A\r\nSHEARING FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  IN ADDITION...\r\nTHERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A\r\nSLOW-MOVING SYSTEM.  ONE REMAINING CONCERN IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES COULD RELAX SOME AFTER 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE MORE OF\r\nAN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nSPECIAL NOTE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPEARS TO NO LONGER\r\nCALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THIS IS BECAUSE THE 72\r\nHOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND.  CLAUDETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE\r\nAT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 24.1N  91.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 24.8N  92.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  93.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 25.8N  94.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  95.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 25.5N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-07-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nITS JUST A STEP TO THE RIGHT...I THINK. CLAUDETTE HAS TAKEN A LITTLE\r\nJOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nTHIS MORNING. THE CURRENT MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 340/7.\r\nRECONNAISSANCE REPORTS OF 1008 CENTRAL PRESSURE AND 55 KT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. CLAUDETTE\r\nIS WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND\r\nWITH MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM\r\nLOUISIANA WESTWARD...THE CURRENT TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO JUMP TO THE\r\nLEFT SHORTLY. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN WESTERLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH\r\nWOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE OVERALL STEERING CURRENT...AND THEREFORE A\r\nSLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE VORTEX CAN MAINTAIN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CORE.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN CLAUDETTE IN A\r\nSHEARING FLOW THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  IN ADDITION...\r\nTHERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE WESTERN GULF AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A\r\nSLOW-MOVING SYSTEM.  ONE REMAINING CONCERN IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES COULD RELAX SOME AFTER 48 HOURS AND PROVIDE MORE OF\r\nAN OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nSPECIAL NOTE...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST APPEARS TO NO LONGER\r\nCALL FOR CLAUDETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...THIS IS BECAUSE THE 72\r\nHOUR FORECAST POINT IS INLAND.  CLAUDETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE\r\nAT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 24.7N  91.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 25.3N  92.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 25.8N  93.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 26.0N  94.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N  95.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 25.5N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-07-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE PERSISTENT UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...TENACIOUS CLAUDETTE HAS\r\nBEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO PRODUCE INTERMETTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN AIR FORCE\r\nPLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 1003 MB...THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY A PLANE IN\r\nTWO DAYS. HOWEVER... IT WENT BACK UP TO 1005 MB...AS WE SPEAK. THIS\r\nSUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO\r\nSIGNS AT ALL THAT SHEAR IS RELAXING AT THIS TIME...AND IN FACT...\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION AT THIS\r\nTIME. GLOBAL MODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER CLAUDETTE. HOWEVER...THEY DO FORECAST WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLIES\r\nOVER THE STORM IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE OUTPUT OF THE SHIPS MODEL THAT DECREASES THE SHEAR FROM 20 DOWN\r\nTO 12 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS. IF CLAUDETTE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE AT\r\nOR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nAFTER THE LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH TODAY...CLAUDETTE IS BACK ON\r\nTRACK. 500 MB DATA AT 00Z INDICATE THAT A TROUGH PASSED TO THE\r\nNORTH EARLIER TODAY AND A RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE CLAUDETTE TO MOVE ON A\r\nMORE WESTERLY TRACK. IN FACT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALREADY 280\r\nDEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. ONCE CLAUDETTE BECOMES TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE\r\nDEVELOPING RIDGE IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST...VERY SLOWLY. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 48 TO 60\r\nHOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 4. THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN\r\nCONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 25.1N  91.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.7N  93.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 26.0N  94.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  95.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 26.0N  96.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-07-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003\r\n\r\nAS YOGI BERRA SAID...ITS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN.  CLAUDETTE LOOKS\r\nTHE SAME AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.  IT IS STILL BEING SHEARED AND THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED.  FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nFROM THE RECON ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...51 KTS VERSUS 52 KTS.  THE\r\nINITIAL SURFACE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS.  THE PRESSURE\r\nREMAINS AT 1005 MB. \r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST WEAKER SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE STORM IN\r\nABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OUTPUT OF THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL THAT DECREASES THE SHEAR FROM 18 TO 12 KNOTS BY 36\r\nHOURS. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nAFTER THE LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...CLAUDETTE HAS\r\nJOGGED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND SOME ADDITIONAL JOGS OR WOBBLES ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE AS IT MOVES ON A GENERALLY WESTERLY COURSE.  THIS WESTERLY\r\nCOURSE IS DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nLANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT THE 48 HOUR TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 25.0N  92.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 25.4N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 25.7N  94.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 25.9N  95.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  97.2W    60 KT...LANDFALL\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 26.1N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 26.2N 101.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-07-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN THE WIND CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN PULLED INTO THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...BUT THIS TIME THERE WAS A RESPONSE IN THE\r\nPRESSURE FIELD.  THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS 996\r\nMB...DOWN ABOUT 11 MB SINCE YESTERDAY.  FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE NEAR\r\n60 KT AND THE SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 50 KT.  IT\r\nREMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS IS A TRANSITORY PRESSURE FALL. \r\nALTHOUGH THE RECON CENTER FIX WAS A SOLID ONE...THE FEATURE THEY\r\nARE TRACKING STILL APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND WITHIN A BROADER\r\nCIRCULATION.  THEREFORE...FIX TO FIX MOTIONS ARE GOING TO BE QUITE\r\nMISLEADING.  THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n300/6.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE OVER\r\nTEXAS AND LOUISIANA THAT MAY CAUSE CLAUDETTE TO LINGER A LITTLE\r\nLONGER OVER THE GULF...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nAND A SHADE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EACH INTERACTION OF\r\nTHE CENTER WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST ALSO SLOWS THE\r\nWESTWARD PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE BASIC FORECAST\r\nTHINKING IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS.\r\n\r\nMOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CLAUDETTE WILL GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE SHEAR LESSENS SLIGHTLY...\r\nAND CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 25.4N  92.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 25.7N  93.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 26.1N  94.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 26.4N  95.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 26.5N  97.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 26.5N 101.5W    25 KT...DISSPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-07-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNINGS INTENSIFICATION IS OVER...FOR NOW...AS THE CONVECTION\r\nIS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE OVERALL\r\nCIRCULATION IS MUCH BETTER DEFINED NOW COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.THE\r\nPRESSURE FELL TO AS LOW AS 994 MB EARLIER BUT IS NOW BACK UP TO 997\r\nMB.  THE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT...BUT WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING AWAY\r\nFROM THE CENTER I AM NOT GOING TO BUMP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY UP AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CAUGHT IN THE\r\nWEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE RIDGE IN\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN BUILDING\r\nTHE LATTER RIDGE EASTWARD AS THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. PULLS\r\nOUT.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...A MORE DEFINITIVE WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD\r\nBEGIN.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS AS THOUGH THIS PROCESS IS GOING TO TAKE\r\nA LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THIS WILL DELAY\r\nTHE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE\r\nUPPER FLOW PATTERNS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL HAVE\r\nMUCH TO SAY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL.  THE GFS AND\r\nTHE CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CLAUDETTE...HELPING TO\r\nREINFORCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. AN OPPOSING\r\nPOINT OF VIEW IS OFFERED BY THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH\r\nBRING A PIECE OF THE HIGH NORTHWARD TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.  I AM HARD PRESSED AT THIS\r\nTIME TO FIND A REASON TO FAVOR ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER.  OUR\r\nEXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE STATUS AND THAT WILL REMAIN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 25.3N  92.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 25.5N  92.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 26.0N  94.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 26.3N  95.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 26.5N  97.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 26.5N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 26.5N 102.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-07-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME WELL\r\nESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 991 MB AND\r\nTHEN BACK TO 992 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND IN THIS FLIGHT CONTINUES TO\r\nBE THE 69 KNOTS RECORDED EARLIER TODAY. A PEAK WIND OF 68 KNOTS HAS\r\nJUST BEEN MEASURED. DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND PRESSURE\r\nDROP...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR HAS NOT RELAX...SO THE CURRENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION\r\nMAY BE ONLY TEMPORARY AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE\r\nLIKELY. CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN FIGHTING THE SHEAR AND A SMALL\r\nRELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE BURSTS OF CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE\r\nCENTER MOVING IN AND OUT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.\r\nGUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED AND CONTINUES TO BRING CLAUDETTE SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE LOWER TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COASTS.\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THEREFORE THE NECESSITY FOR WARNINGS\r\nHAS BEEN DELAYED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 25.7N  92.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 26.0N  92.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 26.5N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 26.6N  95.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 26.7N  97.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 26.7N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 26.7N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-07-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE STORM DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AND FOUND THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nMUCH.  SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS STILL AT 992 MB.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE 65 KTS...VERY SIMILAR TO EARLIER VALUES...SO THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS REMAIN AT 55 KTS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE STORM REMAINS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. ANY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS COULD BRING CLAUDETTE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ONE OF THESE\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IT APPEARS THAT CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AND MAY BE STARTING\r\nTO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE SLOWLY BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\nALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST\r\nTRACK WITH LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND REQUIRES AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AND THE\r\nISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 26.3N  92.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 26.8N  93.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 27.2N  94.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 27.5N  95.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 27.7N  97.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 28.2N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 29.0N 102.4W    15 KT...INLAND\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-07-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS MOVED INTO THE CONVECTION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE LAST\r\nTWO FIXES FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NOTED AN\r\nOPEN EYEWALL WAS PRESENT.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR 991 MB AND\r\nTHE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 65-70 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5.  MORNING RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD\r\nSOON BE BLOCKED...AS CLAUDETTE IS ABOUT TO MEET A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE\r\nAT 400 MB AND BELOW ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING\r\nABOUT THE TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST\r\nBY TRACK GUIDANCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL\r\nTHE TURN OCCUR?  THE MODELS SUGGEST IT SHOULD OCCUR ALMOST\r\nIMMEDIATELY...BUT THIS IS NOT YET SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE OR THE\r\nOCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF THE CENTER ON THE HOUSTON WSR-88D.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\n6-12 HR...FOLLWED BY THE TURN.  THE TRACK IS THEREFORE NUDGED NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  THIS TRACK\r\nREQUIRES WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY BE FORMING\r\nWEST AND SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE.  THIS MAY HELP BRING ABOUT THE\r\nTURN...AND MAY ALSO HELP SHELTER THE STORM FROM THE PERSISTENT\r\nSHEAR.  INDEED...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY\r\nIMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THIS WOULD ALLOW GREATER\r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD AT THE MOMENT AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE... WHICH\r\nWOULD ACT AS A BRAKE ON DEVELOPMENT.  SHIPS SHOWS LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 90 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A\r\nLESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nIS INCREASED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nCLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 26.9N  92.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 27.4N  93.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 27.8N  94.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 28.3N  96.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 28.6N  98.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 29.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":25,"Date":"2003-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS STRUGGLING WITH SHEAR AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORM\r\nHAS HAD AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL MOST OF THE DAY ACCORDING TO\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA.  HOWEVER...RECENT HOUSTON WSR-88D DATA INDICATE THE\r\nEYEWALL IS LESS WELL DEFINED AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS CLOSE TO BECOMING EXPOSED.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATES\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE\r\nWINDS INDICATING THE INTENSITY IS STILL 55 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT SEVERAL OIL RIGS NEAR THE CENTER ARE REPORTING HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS SEVERAL HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6.  THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nLONGER TERM MOTION OF 340/7 AND A SHORTER TERM MOTION SINCE 15Z\r\nTHAT IS SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO SAY IF THIS IS\r\nTHE START OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN...BUT ALL AVAILABLE DATA\r\nSUGGEST SUCH A TURN SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6-18 HR.  THUS...\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE\r\nTEXAS COAST IN 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY\r\nBE PRESENT SOUTHWEST OF CLAUDETTE...IT IS SO FAR NOT DOING MUCH TO\r\nSHELTER THE STORM FROM THE SHEAR.  IN FACT...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS LESS\r\nIMPREESIVE THAN 6 HR AGO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSHEAR COULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH WOULD ALLOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND CLAUDETTE...WHICH WOULD ACT AS A BRAKE. \r\nSHIPS SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM\r\nTO 82 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING SUCH AS HAS OCCURRED FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AS\r\nA COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  AFTER LANDFALL...CLAUDETTE\r\nSHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 27.5N  93.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 27.9N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 28.3N  95.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 28.7N  97.3W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 29.0N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 29.0N 102.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":26,"Date":"2003-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS ALMOST A HURRICANE. ITS ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPROVE WITH AN EYE NOW VISIBLE ON RADAR. LAST RECON REPORTED 77 KT\r\nIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTBOUND FROM THEIR LAST FIX...WHICH\r\nADJUSTS TO ROUGHLY 60 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE HAS NOT\r\nFALLEN YET BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DO SO SHORTLY. SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS OUTFLOW EXPANDING TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND DATA FROM\r\nTHE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET CONFIRM THAT THE SHEAR OVER CLAUDETTE IS\r\nSTILL PRESENT BUT DECREASING. CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE OVERNIGHT. FORTUNATELY...THERE IS NOT A GREAT DEAL OF\r\nTIME FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DO SO AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. ANOTHER FACTOR\r\nINHIBITING STRENGTHENING WILL BE A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE LONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE WEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 280/7.  NOW THAT CLAUDETTE IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nRIDGE IN THE U.S. SOUTHWEST...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE\r\nLESSENING...THE FORWARD SPEED COULD INCREASE A LITTLE PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 27.8N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  95.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 28.2N  97.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 28.5N  99.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 28.5N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 28.5N 104.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Claudette","Adv":27,"Date":"2003-07-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS NOW A HURRICANE. THE FIRST OF THE 2003 ATLANTIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 84 KTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THIS IS\r\nTHE REASON FOR UP-GRADING TO A HURRICANE.  ON THE MOST RECENT\r\nPASS...AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 982 MB WAS REPORTED...A DROPSONDE\r\nMISSED THE EYE AND THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST SUGGESTED THIS WAS THE\r\nVALUE IF IT HAD HIT THE CENTER OF THE EYE.  THE SYSTEM IS NOW\r\nVISIBLE ON COASTAL RADARS AND EARLIER SHOWED AN APPROXIMATELY 25\r\nMILE DIAMETER EYE.  DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR\r\nANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE EYE DIAMETER MAY BE GETTING SMALLER AND\r\nSOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12\r\nTO 18 HOURS.\r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS INCREASED IT\r\nFORWARD SPEED...270/10.  THIS WILL PUT THE STORM NEAR THE COAST IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN CONSENSUS FOR THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS AND ALL MAINTAIN A SPEED OF ABOUT 10 KTS AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...WHICH WILL TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL INLAND AND WEAKEN IT\r\nVERY QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 28.0N  95.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 28.0N  96.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 28.3N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 28.9N 101.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 29.6N 104.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Claudette","Adv":28,"Date":"2003-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES\r\nTHE TEXAS COAST.  THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOSED AND CONTRACTED TO 25 NM\r\nDIAMETER....WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB.  THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING THE HURRICANE REPORTED 80-85\r\nKT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL....WHILE WSR-88D\r\nDATA FROM HOUSTON HAS INDICATED WINDS NEAR 90 KT. BASED ON THIS...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  PART OF THE EYE AND\r\nEYEWALL ARE ALREADY OVER LAND...SO ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nCLAUDETTE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR.\r\n\r\nNOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT TRACKWISE.  CLAUDETTE IS MOVING 285/9 ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nNOTE: AN EYE DROPSONDE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX RECEIVED AFTER THE\r\nREST OF THE ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS TRANSMITTED REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 979 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS MAY REACH\r\n75-80 KT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO BEFORE CLAUDETTE WEAKENS OVER\r\nLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 28.5N  96.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 28.7N  97.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 29.0N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 29.5N 102.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 30.0N 104.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":29,"Date":"2003-07-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003\r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL.  THE EYE HAS FILLED IN\r\nON SATELLITE...AND TO SOME EXTENT ON RADAR.  DOPPLER WINDS ON THE\r\nWSR-88D IN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI HAVE ALSO DECREASED SOMEWHAT. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT BASED ON WINDS OF 75-80 KT\r\nALOFT SEEN IN WSR-88D DATA IN THE EYEWALL.\r\n\r\nCLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MOVING 280-285 AT 12 KT...ALTHOUGH THE LAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN CLOSER TO 270.  A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM DISSIPATES IN 24-36 HR.\r\n\r\nNOTE: THERE WERE TWO REPORTS OF INTEREST RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AFTER THE 15Z PACKAGE WAS RELEASED. \r\nFIRST...THERE WERE WINDS OF 85 KT AT 700 MB NORTHEAST OF THE EYE\r\nJUST BEFORE THE EYE CROSSED THE COAST.  SECOND...AN EYEWALL\r\nDROPSONDE IN THE SAME AREA INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 70\r\nKT.  BASED ON THESE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CLAUDETTE MADE\r\nLANDFALL WITH 75 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 28.7N  97.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 28.9N  99.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 29.6N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 30.3N 104.7W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":30,"Date":"2003-07-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2003\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.  DOPPLER RADAR\r\nSHOWS WINDS ALOFT OF AT LEAST 55 KT AT ABOUT 5000 FT ALTITUDE.\r\nTHERE ARE VERY FEW OBSERVATIONS ON WHICH TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY...BUT MY BEST GUESS IS ABOUT 45 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nWILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES INLAND.  THE PRIMARY THREATS NOW\r\nARE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  CLAUDETTE IS NOW MOVING AT\r\n270/12.  A CONTINUED WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  \r\n\r\nWITH COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON\r\nCLAUDETTE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 28.5N  98.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 28.8N 101.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 29.5N 103.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 30.5N 106.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-07-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE THAT FORMED FROM THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE\r\nIN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED AND ALTHOUGH BOTH ENVIRONMENTAL AND CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURES ARE VERY HIGH...THE GRADIENT SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25 KNOT\r\nWINDS. THE SHEAR IS LOW...FAVORING STRENGTHENING BUT THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL SOON REACH COOLER WATERS SO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nLIMITED. YET...A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WINDS COULD BRING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS\r\nAND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST. THE\r\nWESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY STRONG.\r\nTHEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 31.5N  54.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 33.3N  56.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 35.0N  57.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  56.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 38.5N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 41.0N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 42.0N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 42.0N  44.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-07-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER AND WITHIN A\r\nCURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND SHIPS\r\nINDICATE THAT THERE IS WARM WATER ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST 24HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF A\r\nWARM OCEAN AND LOW SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD REACH TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES\r\nAT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY NORTH OF\r\nTHE RIDGE AXIS AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND EAST. THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ARE NOT VERY\r\nSTRONG. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ACCELERATION IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 32.4N  55.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 33.7N  56.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 35.5N  56.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  55.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 39.0N  54.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 41.5N  50.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 42.0N  45.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  40.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-07-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2003\r\n \r\nDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THE DEPRESSION DEVELOPED CENTRAL CORE\r\nCONVECTION. SINCE THEN...BANDING HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35\r\nKT...AND THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED ON THIS BASIS. OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND EXCELLENT TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE SURFACE CENTER IS LAGGING THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BY 30 OR 40 MILES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  DANNY IS\r\nMOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE WITHIN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  THE GFS APPEARS TO BE MUCH FASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS.  DANNY IS UNLIKELY TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.\r\n\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE CYCLONE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND DANNY SHOULD BE ABLE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME UNLESS THE SHEAR BECOMES UNEXPECTEDLY LARGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  ONCE DANNY GETS NORTH OF ABOUT 40 DEGREES LATITUDE...THE\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.\r\n \r\nTHE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON IS WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.  DANNY...THE\r\nFOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...IS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FOURTH\r\nTROPICAL STORM ON RECORD.  HOWEVER...PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT\r\nNECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.  SINCE 1900...ONLY TWO\r\nSEASONS HAVE PRODUCED THEIR FOURTH TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM OF\r\nTHE YEAR EARLIER THAN JULY 16TH...1959 AND 1997.  THESE TWO SEASONS\r\nPRODUCED ONLY 11 AND 8 TROPICAL STORMS...RESPECTIVELY.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THOUGH THAT 1997 WAS AN EL-NINO YEAR AND IS NOT A GOOD\r\nANALOG FOR 2003.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 32.9N  55.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 35.5N  56.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 37.5N  55.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 39.0N  54.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 41.5N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 41.5N  43.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-07-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003\r\n \r\nDANNY CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY IMPROVED\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND A 17/0339Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATING A 10 NMI\r\nDIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT BASED ON A 45-KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nVERY CIRCULAR AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/9. RECENT TRMM OVERPASSES AT 0339Z AND\r\n0517Z CONFIRM THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND ALSO A POSITION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nFIX POSITIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES STRONGLY ON THE FUTURE\r\nINTENSITY OF DANNY AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nGLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE OF LITTLE USE EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS AND\r\nESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN MODEL. THE GFS...UKMET...GFDN...AND GFDL\r\nMODELS WEAKEN DANNY FROM THE OUTSET AND LOSE AN IDENTIFIABLE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. MEANWHILE ...INFRARED AND\r\nTRMM MCIROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS CLOSER TO BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE THAN IT IS TO DISSIPATING INTO A NON-ENTITY. SINCE THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN INTACT ALL THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nDEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG\r\nABOUT 35N LATITUDE THROUGHOUT THE 5 DAY PERIOD. THE CANADIAN MODEL\r\nHANGS ONTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THROUGH 120 HOURS...WHICH IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS...LBAR..AND ALL THREE BAM MODELS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR DANNY TO MAKE A LARGE\r\nANTICYCLONIC LOOP AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EXCEPT FOR THE ADDITION OF A 120-HOUR\r\nPOSITION. THE MOST RECENT ANALOG FOR A HIGH-LATITUDE CLOCKWISE-\r\nLOOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD BE HURRICANE ALBERTO IN 2000.\r\n \r\nDANNY CURRENTLY HAS A CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW PATTERN MORE\r\nREMINISCENT OF A HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nSMALL...BUT TIGHTLY WOUND AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAS NOTED IN MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. SUBJECTIVE SST ANALYSES THIS\r\nMORNING INDICATE THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS SSTS TOO COLD\r\nALONG THE PATH OF DANNY. IN FACT...SSTS WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE FROM\r\nTHE CURRENT 80F TO NEAR 82 F IN 24 HOURS AS DANNY PASSES OVER OR\r\nNEAR A WARM EDDY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GULFSTREAM NEAR 40N AND\r\n52W. THE WARM SSTS...COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nAND FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 KT OR LESS...SHOULD ALLOW DANNY TO\r\nREACH AND MAINTAIN AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL 36\r\nHOURS...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER IF THE CYCLONE MAKES A TIGHTER LOOP\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST KEEPING IT OVER WARM WATER LONGER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 33.8N  55.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 35.0N  56.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 36.6N  55.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 38.4N  54.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 39.7N  52.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 41.3N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 41.0N  43.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 39.0N  39.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-07-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nDANNY IS WELL ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN SEVERAL\r\nUNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP A BANDING-TYPE EYE DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT BUT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT\r\nVERY COLD. THIS IS NOT UNCOMMON IN TROPICAL CYCLONES AT HIGH\r\nLATITUDES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS...BASED\r\nON ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND KGWC. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...DANNY\r\nHAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 340 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. AS ANTICIPATED DANNY HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS..THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE ALREADY EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT\r\nHAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF DANNY BUT THEY DO INDEED SHOW A\r\nVORTMAX MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A\r\nLARGER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS A WEAKENING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS. DANNY IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 34.9N  56.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 36.3N  57.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 38.5N  55.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 40.5N  52.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 42.0N  49.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 42.5N  44.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 42.5N  40.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 42.0N  37.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-07-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND IS NO LONGER OBSERVED ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL DEFINED WITH GOOD OUTFLOW\r\nAND TWO MAIN HOOKING BANDS. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE STORM IS\r\nAPPROACHING COOLER WATERS...STRENGHTENING IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nLIMITED...AND DANNY MOST LIKELY WILL NOT QUITE REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SMALL CHANCE THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY\r\nREACH 65 KNOTS DURING A CONVECTIVE BURST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDANNY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS ONCE IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...DANNY SHOULD BE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND\r\nWEAKENING. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODELS INDICATE A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND A TURN OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTH AROUND THE OTHER SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT SOLUTION BUT THE TURN IS\r\nMORE GRADUAL AND SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 35.8N  56.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 37.4N  56.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 39.5N  54.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  50.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 43.0N  46.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 41.5N  37.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 39.0N  35.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  35.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-07-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANNY HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. \r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED TO ONE BURST NEAR THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS TO\r\nBE SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST...AND THERE IS MINIMAL BANDING AT THIS\r\nTIME.  AS A RESULT...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 55 KT BUT I SUSPECT MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE HIGH.  DANNY HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER REASONABLY WARM WATER\r\nAND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE EXCESSIVE. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW A WEAKENING TREND\r\nUNTIL 36 HOURS.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL FORCING...SO AFTER DANNY PASSES OVER THE COOL WATERS\r\nON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IT MAY SIMPLY DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 005/10.  THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING IS UNCHANGED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY JUST\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...STEERING CURRENTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nANTICYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF DANNY\r\nMAY MEANDER FOR SOME TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 36.8N  56.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 38.4N  55.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 40.7N  52.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 42.5N  48.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 42.5N  43.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 41.0N  37.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 38.5N  35.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 36.0N  35.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-07-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/12.  THE GFS MODEL KEEPS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER-MEAN ANTICYCLONE NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR 35N 50W FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MOVING THE STORM AT NEAR 15 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  THERE IS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE IN THE 45-55 KNOT RANGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 55 KNOTS WITH A RECENT DECENT\r\nBANDING FEATURE.  DANNY STILL HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER WARM WATER.\r\nTHEN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE STORM BY ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\nFOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 37.8N  55.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 39.6N  54.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 41.6N  50.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 42.8N  46.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 42.6N  42.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  37.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 37.0N  35.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 34.5N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-07-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n \r\nDANNY IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE\r\nVERY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA.\r\nIT HAS VERY WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A SMALL\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD. WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS\r\nAT THIS TIME BASED ON INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...KGWC AND SAB.\r\nIN FACT..LATEST SAB ESTIMATE SUGGESTS THAT DANNY IS A HURRICANE.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nGRADUALLY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS SO...DANNY SHOULD BEGIN A\r\nWEAKENING TREND LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nDANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nINCLUDING GFS AND NOGAPS KEEP DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS MOVING AROUND\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BY DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nALREADY SOUTH OF THE HIGH MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST.\r\nTHIS SORT OF LOOP IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BUT BY\r\nTHEN DANNY SHOULD BE A REMANT LOW OR A TROUGH...IF IT EXISTS AT\r\nALL.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 38.7N  54.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 40.5N  52.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 42.0N  48.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 41.5N  40.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 40.0N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 37.0N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 34.0N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-07-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n \r\nDANNY HAS BECOME THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT DANNY HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE.\r\nTHIS IN GENERAL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS\r\nINTENSITY WILL PROBABLY WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG SINCE DANNY IS\r\nALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COLD WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN SOON. \r\n\r\nDANNY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 15\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH. IF DANNY SURVIVES...THE TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS\r\nBECOMES VERY INTERESTING. MOST OF THE MODELS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...LOOP DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nBY DAY 4 AND 5...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BACK\r\nOVER WARMER WATERS.  BY THEN...IT WILL PROBABLY BE A REMNANT LOW OR\r\nA TROUGH...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL...AND TOO WEAK FOR REGENERATION.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 39.6N  52.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 41.0N  50.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 42.5N  46.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 42.5N  42.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 41.5N  39.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 39.0N  37.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 36.0N  38.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-07-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 18/2254Z\r\nSHOWS THAT DANNY HAS A 15 NM WIDE EYE.  GOOD OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.  A NOTE ON THE\r\nINTENSITY CONCERNS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.  NORMALLY A 65 KT ATLANTIC\r\nHURRICANE HAS A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 987 MB.  DANNY HAS BEEN\r\nEMBEDDED IN VERY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES FOR ALL OF ITS LIFE...AND\r\nTHUS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LIKELY MUCH HIGHER THAN 987 MB. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS NO DATA TO DETERMINE THE EXACT PRESSURE.  THIS\r\nPACKAGE WILL USE 1005 MB WITH GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT\r\nTHE VALUE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/16.  DANNY IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE WESTERLIES AND APPROACHING A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AXIS\r\nROUGHLY ALONG 49W.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN EASTWARD AND THEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL GUIDANCE\r\nTHROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS CALL FOR A TURN TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST... WHILE THE\r\nNHC98 AND LBAR CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERLY MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nWILL FOLLOW THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND CALL FOR DANNY...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...TO TURN SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO A\r\nSTRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nDANNY HAS PASSED OVER A NORTHWARD BULGE IN THE 26C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE ISOTHERM AND IS NOW MOVING INTO COLDER WATER. \r\nWEAKENING IS THUS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SHORTLY.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR\r\nAND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR.  THE FORECAST SOUTHWARD TURN\r\nCOULD CARRY DANNY INTO WARMER WATER AFTER 48-72 HR.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT BY THAT TIME...AND IF DANNY SURVIVES THERE COULD BE\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR THAT\r\nUNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR HOW MUCH OF DANNY WILL BE LEFT AFTER\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 40.5N  50.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 41.8N  48.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 42.6N  44.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 42.1N  40.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 40.8N  38.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 38.0N  37.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 35.5N  38.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  42.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-07-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/16.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH DANNY MOVING AROUND A\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.  DANNY WILL VERY SOON\r\nMOVE OVER COLDER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING.  IF THE\r\nCYCLONE SURVIVES THE COLD WATER AND SOME STRONGER VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS\r\nCHANCE OF OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 41.4N  49.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 42.3N  46.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 42.4N  42.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 41.4N  39.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 39.8N  37.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 36.5N  37.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 34.3N  39.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 33.0N  42.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-07-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THE EYE FEATURE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH DANNY AND T-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES SUPPORT\r\n65 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER COOL WATERS AND WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON.\r\n\r\nDANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 16 KNOTS AROUND A\r\nSTATIONARY SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO LOOP AROUND THE HIGH AND EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST. IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY IS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS\r\nCHANCE OF OCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 42.4N  46.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 43.1N  43.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 43.0N  40.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 41.5N  38.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 39.0N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 36.5N  37.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 34.5N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 33.5N  44.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-07-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nDANNY BEGAN TO WEAKEN BUT STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON\r\nSATELLITE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AT LEAST 60 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME. DANNY WILL CONTINUE OVER COLD WATERS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT\r\nA FASTER PACE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nDANNY HAS ALSO BEGAN TO MOVE EASTWARD AND IT WILL BE SOON MAKING A\r\nLONG LOOP AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION\r\nPROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  DANNY OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nCOULD RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nOVER WARMER WATER AND WITH LESS VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS POSSIBILITY\r\nIS NOT YET REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS ITS CHANCE OF\r\nOCCURRING APPEARS TO BE SLIM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 42.8N  44.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 43.2N  41.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 42.0N  39.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  37.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 38.5N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 36.0N  37.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 34.0N  41.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 33.5N  44.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-07-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nDANNY HAS SHEARED OFF OVER THE COLDER NORTH ATLANTIC THIS EVENING...\r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65\r\nKT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AT 00Z.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE REDUCED TO 50 KT GIVEN THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN THAT HAS\r\nOCCURRED SINCE 00Z...ALONG WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/12.  DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC...AND ALL DATA INDICATE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN SHOULD BEGIN\r\nIN THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nFORECAST DANNY TO PERFORM A LOOP AROUND THE RIDGE AND WIND UP\r\nMOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THIS SCENARIO.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS\r\nNUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nDANNY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IT\r\nMAY WELL BE A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE\r\nOR ITS REMAINS WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER IN FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS THAT WOULD NORMALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  THUS...\r\nTHERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DANNY COULD RE-GENERATE.  THIS WILL\r\nREMAIN AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO UNTIL WE CAN SEE HOW MUCH OF DANNY\r\nWILL REMAIN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 42.7N  43.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 42.4N  41.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 40.9N  38.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 39.1N  37.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 37.5N  37.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 35.5N  38.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 34.5N  41.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 33.5N  44.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-07-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH DANNY HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO SHEAR OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL\r\nINDICATES A FAIRLY TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SEVERAL 45-50 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0\r\n...OR 45 KT...SO THE INTENSITY INTENSITY IS ONLY DECREASED TO 45\r\nKT. ALSO...DRIFTING BUOY 44628 REPORTED AT 06Z A PRESSURE OF 1008.0\r\nMB...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS THE 45 KT INTENSITY. THIS REPORT WAS\r\nALSO USED TO ADJUST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 105/12.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. DANNY IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nNORTHERN PERIPHERY A LARGE AND NEARLY STATIONARY SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 35N LATITUDE. NEARLY ALL OF THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN\r\nSHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHERLY\r\nMOTION IN 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE\r\nA LOOP AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND MOVE SOUTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD\r\nOVER WARMER WATER BY DAY 4 . THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...\r\nGFDL...AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nDANNY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND REMAINS UNDER 20-25 KT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nHOWEVER...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 24C BENEATH THE CYCLONE...\r\nABOUT 3C WARMER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...SO\r\nTHE WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION MAY NOT BE AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIS FORECASTING. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN TO ONLY 5-10 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT SOME REGENERATION\r\nIS POSSIBLE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DOES NOT WEAKEN TOO MUCH\r\nBEFORE THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 42.4N  41.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 41.6N  39.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  37.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 38.5N  37.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 36.8N  37.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 34.8N  39.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 33.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 33.0N  46.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 110/14.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE STORM MOVING AROUND A\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  ALL\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS A SMALL AREA LOCATED ABOUT 175\r\nN MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A 12Z SHIP REPORT OF 39 KNOTS WAS\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 90 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  EVEN WITH A SMALL\r\nPOSITIVE BIAS...THE SHIP SUPPORTS A 40 KNOT INTENSITY AT 12Z.  WITH\r\nA WEAKENING TREND IN PROGRESS...THE 15Z WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 35\r\nKNOTS.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT PURE STATISTICAL CALLS FOR CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING AND DANNY IS FORECAST TO BE A 20 KNOT REMANT LOW IN 24\r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK BRINGS DANNY OVER WARMER WATER AND UNDER LESS\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THE GUIDANCE IMPLIES THAT IT IS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT DANNY WILL RE-INTENSIFY.\r\n\r\nTHE PENN STATE PHASE ANALYSIS SHOWS DANNY TO BE COLD CORE.  WHILE\r\nDANNY MAY NOT BE EXTRATROPICAL...IT IS CLEARLY NOT VERY TROPICAL\r\nEITHER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 41.6N  40.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 40.6N  38.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 39.1N  36.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 37.5N  36.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  36.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 34.5N  38.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 33.5N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 33.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Danny","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 130/15.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING AROUND A\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  ALL\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING AND IT IS FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30\r\nKNOTS BASES ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF THE\r\nONGOING WEAKENING TREND.  AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES SOUTH AND THEN\r\nWEST ...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATER AND LESS VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...BUT ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR NOTHING MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW\r\nFOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  FUTURE\r\nINFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST FROM THE\r\nOCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER\r\nFZNT01 KWBC..\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 40.4N  38.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 39.3N  37.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 37.3N  36.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 34.0N  37.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 32.5N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 32.0N  49.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-07-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n\r\n...AND YET ANOTHER JULY DEPRESSION IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... \r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION DEFINED BY TWO ILL DEFINED HOOKING\r\nBANDS. THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nSHIPS MODEL ONLY SHOW 3 TO 6 KNOTS OF SHEAR WHICH IS A VERY LOW\r\nVALUE AND IN FACT...4 OF 5 PARAMETERS OF THE JOINT HURRICANE TEST\r\nBED RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCHEME ARE SATISFIED. THEREFORE...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.\r\nTHERE IS A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH COVERING MOST OF THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A   \r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN 5\r\nDAYS...THE LATEST UK MODEL RUN HAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE GFS MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF\r\nCUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE GFS. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 12.4N  44.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.5N  46.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.0N  49.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 13.5N  52.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 14.0N  56.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N  62.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N  68.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N  75.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-07-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED... AND\r\nTHAT THE PRIMARY CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS NOT VERY CURVED. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/16...AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE STRONG ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH 96 HR.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE\r\nSYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL\r\nGUIDANCE.  AFTER 96 HR...THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THAT A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES WILL START TO DE-AMPLIFY RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WOULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD.  DEPENDING\r\nON THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION...THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE\r\nWESTWARD OR IT COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST WILL TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY IN LIGHT-SHEAR DEEP\r\nEASTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT\r\nLEAST 24-48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE OUT OF THE WAY...BUT SIMILAR FORECASTS\r\nDURING CLAUDETTE TENDED TO BE TOO FAST MOVING THE TROUGH ASIDE. \r\nTHERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE MAY OUTRUN THE MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A FASHION SIMILAR TO THAT OF CLAUDETTE. \r\nGIVEN THIS...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH\r\nTHE GREATER ANTILLES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEVEL OFF AT 65\r\nKT AFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 12.6N  46.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.9N  48.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 13.3N  51.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.9N  55.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 14.6N  58.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N  64.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N  76.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-07-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE WIND\r\nFIELD AND OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAIN FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. IN FACT...\r\nCELL MOTIONS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION HAVE BEEN NOTED AS\r\nHIGH AS 40-45 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A FASTER 280/19. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nEMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE\r\nAND THIS IS NOTED IN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN THE 700 AND 500 MB\r\nHEIGHTS AT SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER\r\nANTILLES IN 48 TO 60 HOURS AND CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nJUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO IN 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...THE FORECAST\r\nBECOMES LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY\r\n5. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT AND EXACT TIMING OF THE TROUGH WEAKENING\r\nREMAINS IN QUESTION. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME OF\r\nTHE TROUGH WILL REMAIN BEHIND AND HELP TO MAINTAIN A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND MOST OF THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES AS THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...THEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA\r\nIN DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND THE THREE BAM MODELS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nWERE DISCOUNTED SINCE THEY ESSENTIALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE INTO AN\r\nOPEN WAVE AND RACE IT RAPIDLY WESTWARD THROUGH DAY 5. OUT OF\r\nRESPECT FOR THE UKMET MODEL...THE DAY 5 POSITION WAS NUDGED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS AS\r\nFAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.\r\n\r\nTHE PREVIOUS WARM UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY INFLOW HAS NOW BEEN SHUNTED OFF\r\nTO THE EAST INTO A WEAK DISTURBANCE NEAR 10N 35W. THE COOLER AND\r\nMORE STABLE NORTHEASTERLY TRADE INFLOW IS LIKELY THE MAIN CAUSE OF\r\nTHE RECENT DOWNWARD TREND IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nDOWNWARD TREND SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nAPPROACHING 50W LONGITUDE WHERE THE WATER IS WARMER. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR AT LEAST STEADY \r\nINTENSIFICATION. AS SUCH...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 12.9N  48.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.3N  51.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.8N  54.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.4N  57.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.1N  60.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.7N  66.6W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N  72.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N  78.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/20.  THE GFS SHOWS A MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION WITH A POSITION IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN FIVE\r\nDAYS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AND POSITIONS IN THE\r\nBAHAMAS-SOUTH FLORIDA AREA IN FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA COMPROMISE BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nWITH A FORWARD SPEED OF 20 KNOTS...THE SYSTEM MAY NOT HAVE A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nSOMEWHAT ORGANIZED.  THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INCREASED THE WIND SPEED\r\nTO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  ONLY THE PURE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSUPPORTS THAT MUCH INTENSIFICATION.  THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nSHIPS BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO ONLY 46 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 53\r\nKNOTS IN 5 DAYS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FAR LESS AGGRESSIVE. \r\nSTILL..THERE IS LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE WARM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS AND 65 KNOTS\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...NONE OF\r\nTHE WEATHER SERVICES OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 13.0N  50.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.4N  53.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 14.0N  56.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.9N  60.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.1N  64.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N  72.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N  84.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/20.  THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASING\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE THE ONLY DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS TO HOLD ON TO A CIRCULATION FOR FIVE DAYS AND THESE MODELS\r\nSHOW A FIVE DAY POSITION NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nARE FURTHER SOUTH BUT ONLY CARRY A CIRCULATION FOR 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND CONSIDERABLY SOUTH\r\nOF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS.  THIS UNCERTAINTY AFTER 72 HOURS IS A\r\nLITTLE MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT PAST STORMS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...BUT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY STILL DOES NOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nAND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KNOTS.  NONE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE PURE STATISTICAL...BRINGS THE WINDS TO\r\nHURRICANE FORCE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS BY DAY FOUR AND FIVE...BACKING OFF A LITTLE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nIF THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A STORM AS FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD REACH THE CENTRAL ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM REMAINS RATHER\r\nUNIMPRESSIVE...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR ST LUCIA AND\r\nDOMINICA.  THE FRENCH ISLANDS CHOOSE TO WAIT A WHILE LONGER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 13.3N  52.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.9N  55.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N  59.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N  63.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 16.6N  67.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N  80.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N  85.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TONIGHT THAN 24\r\nHR AGO.  WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL POORLY DEFINED...\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30\r\nKT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND RECENT WARMING OF THE\r\nCLOUD TOPS...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/20.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...\r\nAND SHOULD REMAIN THERE FOR 72 HR OR SO.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A\r\nBRISK WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nWITH THIS...AS WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nFORECAST GETS TRICKIER AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A DE-AMPLIFYING\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE DETAILS\r\nDIFFER...THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS BUILD A PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC\r\nRIDGE WESTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE WOULD\r\nLIKELY CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER SPEED.  THIS SCENARIO IS\r\nCURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY MOST GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nGOES ALONG WITH IT.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO COMES FROM THE UKMET...\r\nWHICH KEEPS ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHOUGH THE BAHAMAS AND JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.  THE UKMET IS\r\nCURRENTLY A RIGHT OUTLIER...BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  FIRST...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED.  SECOND...WHILE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILD AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WESTWARD TO PROVIDE A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT...THE MODELS CONSISTENTLY OVERDID SUCH FORECASTS DURING\r\nCLAUDETTE...AND CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDEED SHOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nGETTING CLOSER TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nWHICH COULD SLOW OR HALT DEVELOPMENT.  THIRD...AFTER 48 HR THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BE NEAR OR OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN NEAR AND OVER COULD HAVE HUGE IMPACTS ON THE\r\nINTENSITY.  FINALLY...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS MUCH\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES BY FORECASTING SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR\r\n48-72 HR...THEN LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 13.7N  54.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 14.1N  57.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N  61.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.1N  65.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N  69.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N  76.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N  81.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 24.5N  85.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-07-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS AND IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...IF IT\r\nHAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T2.0 OR 30 KT\r\nFROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/20.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN\r\nDEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP ANTICYCLONE\r\nTHAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 72\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST IS LESS STRAIGHT-FORWARD. ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE ON A PORTION THE CURRENT LONGWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN\r\n48 TO 72 HOURS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN THE BACK\r\nSIDE AND MAINTAINING THE TROUGH AXIS AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA...THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S.... AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND\r\nUKMET MODELS ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE ACROSS\r\nHISPANIOLA AND TO NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BY DAY 5...WHILE\r\nTHE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE BAM MODELS ARE CLUSTERED CLOSE TOGETHER AND BRING THE\r\nCYCLONE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA BY DAY 4 AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF\r\nMEXICO BY DAY 5. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE RTACK OF THE GFS\r\nAND CANADIAN 500 MB MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH\r\nDAY 4...WITH A SLOWER SPEED AND SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT ON DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FEW INTENSITY FORECASTS OR\r\nREASONINGS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE NOT OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS...BUT AFTERWARDS CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO IMPROVE. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29C OR\r\nHIGHER SST WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECASTS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 COULD\r\nEASILY BE TOO LOW. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 47 KT IN 120 HOURS...WHILE\r\nSHIFOR BRINGS IT UP TO 80 KT.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE\r\nU.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 14.0N  56.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 14.6N  59.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N  63.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 16.6N  67.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.7N  70.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N  77.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 22.5N  82.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 25.5N  85.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-07-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 280/20 BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY.  THE GFS AND OTHER\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF FLORIDA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY\r\nTHIS WEAKNESS AND SHIFT IT A LITTLE WESTWARD.  THE UKMET HAS THE\r\nWEAKNESS MOVING MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN THE GFS AND THIS RESULTS IN\r\nTHE UKMET MOVING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD JUST EAST OF FLORIDA BY DAY\r\n4.  THE GFS LOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER DAY 3 BUT SUGGESTS A TRACK\r\nMUCH FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST.  THE NOGAPS IS IN BETWEEN WITH A TRACK\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA COMPROMISE INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY DAY 5 AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.  SO THERE IS A RATHER LARGE UNCERTAINTY\r\nABOUT THE TRACK AFTER DAY 3.\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN TO GO ALONG WITH THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER.  AN AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL INVESTIGATE THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE THE EXACT LOCATION AND\r\nINTENSITY.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS NEAR 45 KNOTS BUT THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KNOTS UNTIL RECONNAISSANCE DATA\r\nCONFIRMS THE WIND SPEED.  MEANWHILE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN\r\nPLACE FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES IN THE EVENT THAT\r\nTHE WINDS ARE ACTUALLY ABOVE STORM STRENGTH.  EXCEPT FOR THE PURE\r\nSTATISTICAL SHIFOR MODEL WHICH HAS 80 KNOTS ON DAY 5...NONE OF THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTS MORE THAN ABOUT 50 KNOTS WITH A FAIR\r\nAMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST GOES TO 55 KNOTS AT DAY 3 THROUGH 5 WHICH IS A\r\nLITTLE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nFAST MOVING SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS ONE ARE A CHALLENGE IN THAT THERE\r\nMAY NOT BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND YET THE WINDS CAN BE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THIS WAS THE CASE WITH CLAUDETTE MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE ISLANDS AND MAY BE THE CASE WITH THIS DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 14.2N  58.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.8N  62.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N  66.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.3N  70.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N  80.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 25.0N  84.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  86.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-07-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE.\r\n\r\nTHE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nCARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nTHE WAVE COULD REORGANIZE AND AGAIN BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nWAVE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z DISSIPATED NEAR THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-07-25 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS FORMED FROM THE SAME TROPICAL WAVE\r\nWHICH SPAWNED TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nAND UPPER AIR DATA SHOW THAT A CONVECTIVE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nWAVE MOVED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND\r\nREACHED THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS YESTERDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN MOVED\r\nNORTHWARD PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH CONVECTION HAS FORMED THIS MORNING AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE NWS COASTAL RADARS...HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.   \r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS VERY HIGH FOR A TYPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nBUT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH HIGHER PRESSURE\r\nENVIRONMENT. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 KNOTS\r\nMAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE GRADIENT IS THE\r\nSTRONGEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SHELF WATER THAT IS NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT\r\n11 KNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE\r\nDEPRESSION CROSSES THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. \r\n\r\nDO NOT FOCUS ON THE CENTER...AS MOST OF THE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE\r\nWELL REMOVED FROM IT. \r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1800Z 30.2N  80.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.5N  81.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 33.5N  81.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 35.5N  81.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN ON\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. IT CONSISTS OF A FEW CURVED CLOUD BANDS\r\nBUT THE CONVECTION IS NOT DEEP AT THIS TIME. DATA FROM A \r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ESTABLISHED\r\nBUT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 25 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND AND\r\nWEAKENING BEGINS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION LOCATED BETWEEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD STEERING\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 30.8N  80.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 32.5N  81.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 34.5N  81.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 36.5N  80.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO STRONG WINDS EVIDENT FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON ARE LOWER THAN\r\nTHEY WERE AT 18Z.  HOWEVER ON RECENT SR-88D RADAR IMAGES A BANDING\r\nFEATURE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  BASED ON THE 88D VELOCITY DATA...THE INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 30 KT BUT THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER A VERY SMALL\r\nAREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE AREA AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER\r\nRELATIVELY COOL WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE GULF STREAM.  THEREFORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS\r\nSLOWED TO AN ESTIMATED 8 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD STEERING CURRENT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BASED ON THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECASTS IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE\r\nBAM AND GFDL TRACK FORECASTS ARE EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE\r\nHEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...\r\nPARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SLOWLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 31.1N  80.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 32.5N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 34.0N  81.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 35.5N  81.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2003\r\n \r\nBASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO BE\r\nJUST INLAND OVER GEORGIA JUST SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH.  SATELLITE\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES ARE STILL OVER WATER TO THE EAST BUT ARE\r\nPROBABLY THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THERE IS ABOUT 15\r\nKNOTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WHICH WOULD\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE UPPER CENTER BEING DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED ABOUT 75 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER AND THERE COULD BE 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THIS\r\nCONVECTION.  OTHERWISE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NOTHING HIGHER\r\nTHAN ABOUT 20 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW OVER LAND AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS REPORTED ALONG THE COAST FROM SAVANNAH TO\r\nCHARLESTON.  THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN\r\nALONG THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS OVER LAND...THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE\r\nINFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 31.9N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 32.9N  82.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 34.3N  82.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 35.3N  81.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS FOUND A SMALL POORLY\r\nDEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS OF 47 KNOTS AT 1000 FEET TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 1011 MB AND A NORTHWEST WIND ABOUT 300 FEET ABOVE THE\r\nSURFACE....WITH NO DATA AVAILABLE FROM BELOW.  THE INFORMATION FROM\r\nTHE PLANE IN COMBINATION WITH THE WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON BOTH\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR...SUPPORTS UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ERIKA AT THIS TIME. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY COULD BRING\r\nERIKA INLAND AS A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS. THERE IS A PERSISTENT STRONG\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES PROVIDING\r\nA WESTWARD STEERING TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...ERIKA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL EITHER IN SOUTHERN TEXAS OR\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.      \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 26.2N  84.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  87.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 26.0N  92.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  95.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N  97.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N 105.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 14 2003\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THIS EVENING FOUND A MUCH BETTER DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 47 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AT 1500 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO\r\nABUT 38 KT AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE THE LAST RECON WIND REPORTS...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/20. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS\r\nACTUALLY BEEN PROPAGATING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...BUT THAT MOTION IS BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nREGION. THERE MAY EVEN BE A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG DURING THE NIGHT\r\nAS THE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...BUT\r\nTHE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE WESTWARD. AT 500 MB...ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBALS MODELS MAINTAIN THE SAME DISTANCE BETWEEN ERIKA AND A\r\nSTRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AS\r\nBOTH SYSTEMS MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM. THE FORECAST TRACK BECOMES A\r\nLITTLE MURKY AFTER 24 HOURS AS ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL\r\nWEAKEN ERIKA SIGNIFICANTLY...AND TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD\r\nJUST BEFORE IT REACHES THE WESTERN GULF COAST SATURDAY MORNING.\r\nSINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING INSTEAD OF\r\nWEAKENING TO OCCUR...ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nSYSTEM AND BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW\r\nACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THAT ALL OF THE MODELS ARE MAINTAINING\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE FARTHER\r\nNORTH INITIAL POSITION AND FASTER MOTION. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING\r\nFLOW WEAKENS ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.  THIS TRACK SCENARIO IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS...AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL'S MID-LEVEL CENTER TRACK POSITIONS. SINCE THE 36 HOUR\r\nFORECAST POSITION IS NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS\r\nBEEN ISSUED FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS SOUTHWARD TO BOCA SANTA MARIA\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nERIKA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND THE LAST RECON REPORTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING QUITE\r\nFAST AND THAT WILL LIMIT THE TIME THAT ERIKA WILL HAVE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR SUCH A FAST\r\nMOVING TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE FAST MOTION IS KEEPING THE\r\nCONVECTION FROM WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN\r\nJUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AT A TIME. THIS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR RIGHT\r\nUP UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO NEAR 70-75\r\nKT AT LANDFALL. THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS ERIKA TO BELOW TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 26.6N  86.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 26.5N  89.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 26.5N  93.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 26.4N  97.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 26.3N  99.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 26.5N 104.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/21...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION OVER THE\r\nPAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN A LITTLE FASTER.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nINDICATE A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nWITH THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASING TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THIS TRACK\r\nBRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN 36 HOURS AND INLAND IN 48 HOURS.\r\nIT IS NOT EASY TO SEE WHY THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD DECREASE SO MUCH\r\nAS THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE STORM EMBEDDED WESTWARD DEEP LAYER MEAN\r\nFLOW TO THE SOUTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  PERHAPS\r\nA RIDGE IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE STORM OR THE ANTICYCLONE\r\nMAY BE FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  IN ANY CASE...ALL OF THE MAJOR GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THIS SLOWING DOWN AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND 50 KT AT A LOCATION 60 N MI NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL AND 1008 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THIS DATA.  THE\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION LOOKS PRETTY GOOD ON INFRARED IMAGERY WITH\r\nA BANDING FEATURE AROUND THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND ANOTHER STARTING\r\nTO EXTEND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE CENTER IS VERY NEAR BUOY 42001\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST MODEST STRENGTHENING BUT NOT TO HURRICANE\r\nFORCE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DOES AND ALSO SHOWS\r\nTHAT THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAPID DEEPENING.  SO A FORECAST OF 65 KT\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL STILL WORKS.  MY ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER TO PUT UP\r\nA HURRICANE WARNING OR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE APPROACH IS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND THE PATH OF\r\nLEAST REGRET IS A HURRICANE WARNING.  LETS GO WITH TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING...TO BE UPGRADED LATER IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING IS\r\nOBSERVED TO BEGIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 26.3N  89.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 26.2N  92.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  95.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 25.8N  98.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 25.4N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 26.5N 102.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z...INLAND DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON NEAR 12Z INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINED\r\nAT 1008 MB. HOWEVER...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM WAS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW WELL-DEFINED\r\nCURVED BANDS...A GOOD OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  IN\r\nADDITION...A SHIP LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED 40\r\nKNOTS AT 12Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND ERIKA IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.   \r\n\r\nERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM \r\nOVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS CONTROLLING THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nAND BECAUSE THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST....A CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nINDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS WOULD BRING ERIKA TO THE COAST\r\nWITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nMAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 26.1N  91.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 26.1N  94.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERIKA IS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS LARGE CURVED\r\nBANDS...GOOD OUTFLOW AND VERY STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. AN\r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000\r\nMB BUT MAX WIND AT 850 MB ARE 57 KNOTS SO FAR. THIS CORRESPONDS\r\nWITH 45 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES SUGGEST 55 KNOT WINDS. ASSUMING THAT THE AIRPLANE HAS NOT\r\nSAMPLED THE MAXIMUM WINDS YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50\r\nKNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF BOTH SATELLITE AND RECON ESTIMATES.\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IT\r\nIS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION. ERIKA IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nERIKA IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 19 KNOTS.  A PERSISTENT LARGE HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL LIKELY FORCE\r\nERIKA TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE HIGH IS SO STRONG THAT\r\nERIKA COULD EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nSOME TRACK MODELS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF ERIKA TO\r\nTHE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY SATURDAY. A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED MAY OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.\r\n \r\nNOTE: ALTHOUGH ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KNOT\r\nHURRICANE...INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN. THE FORMATION OF AN\r\nINNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT BASICALLY\r\nIMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST...COULD RESULT IN STRONGER WINDS AT\r\nLANDFALL. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE\r\nAT THE TPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 26.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  96.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N 103.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N 106.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2003\r\n\r\nCORRECT CLAUDETTE TO ERIKA IN FIRST PARAGRAPH\r\n \r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE INDICATES THAT ERIKA HAS DEVELOPED\r\nA ROUGHLY 30 NM WIDE EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC SURROUNDING CONVECTION\r\nMAINLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE JUST\r\nEXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\n992 MB...AS THE EYE DROP REPORTING 998 MB APPARENTLY MISSED THE\r\nCENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAT 700 MB.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/18.  ERIKA IS SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF COAST. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND\r\nGET LEFT BEHIND BY ERIKA...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW\r\nDOWN.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE MUCH DECELERATION\r\nCAN OCCUR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...CALLING FOR A GRADUALLY DECELERATING WESTWARD MOTION\r\nUNTIL ERIKA DISSIPATES OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\nERIKA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE STORM IS\r\nIN A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. INDEED...ALL\r\nFIVE OF THE EXPERIMENTAL CRITERIA FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL ARE MET.  THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS THAT THE STORM SHOULD RUN AGROUND IN 6-9 HR.  ERIKA WILL LIKELY\r\nMAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-70 KT HURRICANE...BUT IF A BURST OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION OCCURS IT COULD BE STRONGER.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR\r\nAFTER LANDFALL AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nMAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR ERIKA ARE AVAILABLE AT THE\r\nTPC/NHC WEB SITE...WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV...SELECT ERIKA GRAPHICS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 26.0N  95.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 26.0N 101.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 26.0N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/16.  AL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A\r\nCONTINUED WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...AFTER WHICH DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND A NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 24 HOURS WHILE THE NOGAPS DOES NOT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT.  THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION HAS THE CENTER WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE COAST\r\nJUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE AND THE CENTER WILL BE INLAND SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN MONITORING ERIKA AND THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIKA REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 60 KNOTS.  ALSO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A FEW MB TO 994\r\nMB.  EVEN SO...THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nSYSTEM WITH AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nDOPPLER WINDS TO 80 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WINDS ALMOST AS\r\nHIGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SO ERIKA IS CLOSE TO BEING A\r\nHURRICANE.  WE MAY NEVER KNOW FOR SURE WHETHER THE WINDS WERE 60 OR\r\n65 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER.  FIVE KNOTS IS IN THE NOISE LEVEL.\r\nFINALLY...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE IS ABOUT OVER\r\nAS MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND\r\n \r\nERIKA SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES INLAND\r\nOVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 25.5N  97.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 25.3N  99.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF ERIKA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND IS BEGINNING\r\nTO WEAKEN. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SO...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...ERIKA MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAINS\r\nPRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ERIKA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AT LANDFALL. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC\r\nWERE ON THE RANGE OF 4.0 AND 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN\r\nADDITION...HIGH RESOLUTION DOPPLER WIND DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE\r\nREPORTED PEAK WINDS OF 91 KNOTS AT 2500 FEET WITHIN A SMALL AREA TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS\r\nCORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE 987 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE AND THE CLOSED EYEWALL\r\nREPORTED BY THE RECON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 25.3N  98.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N 100.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 25.0N 103.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erika","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2003\r\n \r\nERIKA HAS BEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN ON\r\nBOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED. THERE IS VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW BUT LATEST AVAILABLE RADAR DATA\r\nINDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES ARE NO LONGER WELL-DEFINED.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS AND FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED. ERIKA HAS\r\nBECOME PRIMARILY A RAIN PRODUCER.\r\n \r\nERIKA IS MOVING ABOUT 255 DEGREES OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS. THE\r\nSTRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP/GFS MODEL\r\nBRINGS A VORTMAX ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA TO THE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT\r\nTWO DAYS AND THEN IT SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT. WE SHALL SEE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 24.6N  99.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 24.0N 102.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 105.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erika","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-08-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERIKA HAS REACHED THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST 6 HR.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nRADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE AND TAMPICO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE\r\nIN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...AND THE SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY AND SALTILLO INDICATE WINDS OF 20 KT OR\r\nLESS.  THIS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS THAT ERIKA IS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY\r\nDISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/12.  THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF\r\nERIKA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...\r\nPOSSIBLY REACHING THE PACIFIC IN 24-36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO DUE TO THE REMAINING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE.  PLEASE CONSULT FORECASTS\r\nFROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 24.8N 100.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 24.4N 102.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DEVELOPED\r\nCONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES...AFTER BEING DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEST WIND FROM A\r\nSHIP SOUTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS\r\nTO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND ONLY THE INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nHIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA COULD HINDER \r\nINTENSIFICATION. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL\r\nMODEL. AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST...THIS RAPID ORGANIZATION TREND CAN\r\nBE EASILY REVERSED AS IT OCCURED LAST NIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD FAVOR A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL AND GFS MODELS WHICH BRING WHATEVER SYSTEM IS THERE...OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...JUST TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 14.7N  66.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N  67.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N  70.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N  78.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N  79.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2003\r\n\r\nIR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION SUCH AS\r\nOCCURRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THERE IS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG.  THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM TOMORROW.  DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS SHOULD BE INTERRUPTED\r\nBY INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND WITH THIS COMES GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK LATER IN THE PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS DIVERGE SOMEWHAT\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION.  HOWEVER IF THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS WEAK...IT COULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...SIMILAR TO\r\nTHAT SHOWN BY THE NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nCAUTIONARY NOTE...ONE SHOULD KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN NOT ONLY THE 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POSTIONS...BUT\r\nALSO IN THE INTENSITY AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 15.4N  67.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.1N  68.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N  70.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.4N  72.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 23.5N  78.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATE\r\nTHAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAPPEARS TO BE PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY\r\nCONVECTION...WITH A MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED IN\r\nTHE CONVECTION.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/11.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH\r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 36-48 HR AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE\r\nNORTH.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD\r\nFROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS.  IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WITH SOME DECELERATION AFTER 36-48 HR.  THIS\r\nIS AGREED ON BY MOST GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nSCENARIO.  IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING\r\nTOWARD A MORE WESTERLY MOTION FOR THE CYCLONE...AS THEY ARE SLOWER\r\nTO MOVE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. INTO\r\nTHE ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD\r\nAFTER 72 HR...BUT ANY BIG CHANGES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U. S. RIDGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A\r\nVARIETY OF FORECAST EVOLUTIONS FROM THE VERY FAVORABLE TO\r\nMARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE.  THE PRESENCE OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA ALSO\r\nCOMPLICATES MATTERS.  ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nHISPANIOLA...WHICH WOULD WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM. \r\nANY MOTION TO THE LEFT WOULD MINIMIZE THE IMPACT OF HISPANIOLA...\r\nBUT INCREASE THE TIME SPENT OVER CUBA AND THUS SLOW OR STOP\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL IN HISPNIOLA...WITH STRENGTHENING\r\nRESUMING AFTER THE CYCLONE LEAVES THE ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 15.9N  68.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N  69.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N  71.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 19.0N  73.2W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N  74.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N  77.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 24.0N  78.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003\r\n\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE WEST. IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nDISRUPT DEVELOPMENT.  THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE SOME WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DUE TO HIGH TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...STRENGHTENING IS\r\nEXPECTED ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BACK OVER WATER BETWEEN\r\nCUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE VERY FAVORABLE. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DESTROYED OVER LAND. \r\n\r\nCURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS \r\nSTEERED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEYOND 3 DAYS AS\r\nA MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH AND BREAKS DOWN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL \r\nMOVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC OCEAN AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. LET'S SEE WHAT\r\nHAPPENS IN THE NEXT 12Z MODEL RUNS. \r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL\r\nDETERMINE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 16.4N  68.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N  70.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N  72.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N  74.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N  75.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N  77.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER\r\nHAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND IT HAS DEGENERATED INTO A STRONG\r\nTROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM HAS A VIGOROUS MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE AT ANY TIME. IN FACT\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR REFORMATION...AIR FORCE PLANES WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE\r\nSYSTEM. IF REGENERATION OCCURS...WARNINGS WILL HAVE TO BE REISSUED.\r\n \r\nTHE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PRODUCING\r\nVERY HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nBAHAMAS THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 17.0N  70.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nCENTER SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS\r\nDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED\r\nAND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nTHEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY\r\nWARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY\r\nWEAK.  VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED...AND THE LEVELLING\r\nOFF OF THE MAX WINDS SHOWN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IS MOSTLY A\r\nREFLECTION OF OUR GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTS IN THE\r\n3- TO 5-DAY RANGE. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT\r\n270/17.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nWITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THIS TRACK IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND IS ALSO A VERY TYPICAL ONE FOR\r\nLATE AUGUST.  THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT...HOWEVER.  IF THE\r\nSYSTEM NEAR 20N44W BECOMES STRONG ENOUGH...IT COULD CREATE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND RESULT IN A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD THAN EXPECTED TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 14.6N  31.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.1N  34.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.6N  37.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.1N  40.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N  43.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N  48.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  52.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A GOOD COVERAGE OF PERSISTENT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO...AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THIS CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON\r\nMORE OF A BANDED APPEARANCE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 30 KT...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. AN EXPERIMENTAL\r\nSEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 0040 UTC INDICATED THAT THE WINDS\r\nARE 25-30 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.   \r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND IS MOVING ABOUT\r\n275/16.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE UNKNOWN\r\nIS THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR 22N/45W WILL\r\nPROVIDE AN OPENING THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR RECURVATURE.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ONLY A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT\r\nOTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.\r\nHOWEVER...NONE OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION AND AS A\r\nRESULT COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...I THINK THESE MODELS MAY BE OVERESTIMATING THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE WESTERN DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS STARTING TO\r\nENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING IS THAT\r\nTHE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT INDICATE MUCH\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60\r\nHOURS.  WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AND THE UPPER\r\nWINDS FAVORABLE.  THESE FACTORS FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 14.8N  33.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.1N  35.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.6N  38.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 16.1N  41.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N  44.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 18.0N  49.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  57.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n \r\nCENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING AS INDICTED BY THE\r\nWIDE ARRAY OF SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THERE ARE AT LEAST 3 SWIRL\r\nAREAS THAT ARE BEING IDENTIFIED AS CENTERS THAT WOULD RANGE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEEDS OF 18 TO 25 KT. I AM NOT SEEING ANY INDICATION THAT\r\nTD 10 IS ACCELERATING TO 25 KT...SO I HAVE USED CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK SPEED AND CONSERVATIVE FEATURES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nIN BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND A 28/0233Z\r\nTRMM OVERPASS. THIS KEEPS THE CENTER ABOUT 60 NMI EAST OF THE\r\nCOLDEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD TO 30 KT DESPITE\r\nA SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SINCE THERE\r\nIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION AND THE INNER-CORE\r\nCONVECTION AND EARLIER BANDING FEATURES HAVING BECOME MORE RAGGED\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER..UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/18. THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG IS LIKELY\r\nDUE TO AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RESUME A MOTION OF 275 DEGREES. THE STRONG\r\nBERMUDA-AZORES HIGH EXTENDS UNUSUALLY FAR SOUTH ALONG 31N LATITUDE\r\n...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE 00Z GFS\r\nMODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nMODEL RUNS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NEW RUN INDICATING A DEEPER\r\nAND MORE REPRESENTATIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT WILL BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH. IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET MAINTAINS A SHALLOW WEAK SYSTEM THAT\r\nMOVES MORE POLEWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS\r\nNORTH OF THE GFS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...\r\nTHEN AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...BUT THEN LESS THAN THE 79 KT IT FORECASTS BY 120 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS DUE TO DRY MID-LEVEL AIR POSSIBLY BECOMING A FACTOR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 14.7N  35.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.9N  37.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.4N  40.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.9N  43.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N  45.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 17.4N  49.8W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N  54.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH...BUT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER\r\nRAGGED-LOOKING AND THERE HAS BEEN AN EROSION OF THE CLOUDS NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER.  AN SSM/I IMAGE FROM 1017Z SHOWED THE ERODED AREA\r\nAS A LARGE HOLE NEAR 15.6N36W...AND ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nINDICATED THAT THIS HOLE WAS NORTH OF THE ACTUAL CENTER.  WE WOULD\r\nLIKE TO SEE THE CLOUD PATTERN GET JUST A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nBEFORE NAMING THE SYSTEM. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY\r\nWARM AND THERE IS MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THESE\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGHTENING...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nPREDICTING INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY IN 3-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLIES AND\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...275/18.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG\r\n30-35N LATITUDE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.  THERE\r\nIS A DISTURBANCE NEAR 24N48W WHICH IS CREATING A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKNESS...HOWEVER THIS FEATURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH\r\nINFLUENCE ON THE MOTION OTHER THAN TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nSOMEWHAT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS SOLUTION.  THE GFDL...U.K.\r\nMET. OFFICE...AND NOGAPS TRACKS ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 15.1N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.4N  39.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.8N  42.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.4N  44.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 16.9N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 17.7N  51.3W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  56.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N  61.1W    65 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabian","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE DAY.  BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PROMINENT ON THE VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 40 KT.  IT IS INTERESTING TO\r\nNOTE THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE PASSED NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A\r\nDATA BUOY AND THAT PLATFORM REPORTED ONLY ABOUT 10 KT WINDS. \r\nALTHOUGH THIS OBSERVATION SEEMS TOO LOW...IT IS ROUGHLY CONSISTENT\r\nWITH AN EARLIER SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER PASS.  THIS IS ALSO WHAT\r\nWOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A STORM MOVING SO RAPIDLY WESTWARD.  THE\r\nSTORM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS...SST AND SHEAR...FAVOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE QUICKLY WESTWARD...275/19.  THERE IS A\r\nSTRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFABIAN.  THIS STEERING REGIME IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ON A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THE PREDICTED DECELERATION MAY BE DUE TO A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A DISTURBANCE NEAR 24N49W. \r\nOTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS FOR A SIGNIFICANT\r\nNORTHWARD EXCURSION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS ALSO ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL\r\nSUITE.\r\n\r\nTHE 4-5 DAY FORECAST POINTS IMPLY A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES...BUT THERE ARE LARGE AVERAGE ERRORS AT THESE TIME\r\nRANGES.  IT IS WAY...WAY...TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHETHER FABIAN WILL\r\nPOSE A THREAT TO LAND AREAS FARTHER WEST. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 15.2N  39.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.7N  41.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.2N  44.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.8N  46.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 17.4N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  53.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  58.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  62.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabian","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. THERE IS A CURVED BAND TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE CENTER WITH OUTFLOW EXPANDING NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD. THE\r\nLATEST SSMI REVEALED A DISTINCT CENTER AND THE QUIKSCAT SHOWED A\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS.\r\nCURRENTLY...THERE IS A PERSISTENT BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES CENTERED AT 20 DEGREES NORTH EXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS\r\nEASTWARD TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WEST. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR FABIAN TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. ON\r\nTHE CONTRARY...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LIGHT\r\nSHEAR...LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BECAUSE\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL IS BASED ON THE GFS OUTPUT WHICH HAS BEEN REMOVING\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TOO FAST...ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFABIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17\r\nKNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN GRADUALLY RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH MOVES FABIAN AT\r\nABOUT 10 KNOTS BEYOND 48 HOURS AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UK\r\nMODELS.         \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 15.3N  40.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.5N  43.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.2N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N  48.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  58.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  62.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabian","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n\r\nFABIAN IS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY RAGGED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN\r\nTHIS MORNING...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE STORM REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nWITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...SO THE\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18.  FABIAN REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HR. \r\nTHIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS RESULTS IN THOSE MODELS SHOWING FABIAN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAFTER 96 HR.  GIVEN THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT WHEN AND HOW SUCH\r\nA TURN MAY OCCUR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT YET SHOW\r\nTHAT MUCH OF A TURN.  INSTEAD...IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...AND THEN SHOWS A\r\nLITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THIS TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AND GFDL...AND THE 120 HR FORECAST POSITION IS\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THOSE MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW SEVERAL DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS ALONG THE PATH OF FABIAN.  FOR THE MOST\r\nPART...THEY FORECAST FAVORABLE LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH\r\nFORECAST FABIAN TO REACH 85-90 KT BY 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL NOT BE THAT AGRESSIVE...BUT DOES CALL FOR FABIAN TO REACH 80\r\nKT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 15.5N  42.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.8N  45.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N  47.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.2N  50.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N  52.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N  59.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N  63.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabian","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS\r\nAROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THERE IS FAIR OUTFLOW AT THIS\r\nTIME. AN SSMI PASS AT 0930Z SHOWED A RING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CENTER OF FABIAN. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 3.5 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 55 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS STILL RAGGED...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.\r\nSHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES FABIAN ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL BE LOW\r\nSHEAR AND HIGHER SSTS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHIPS DEPENDS\r\nON THE GFS MODEL WHICH IS FORECASTING LOW SHEAR ALONG THE PATH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW A BAND OF\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AHEAD\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL BRINGS FABIAN TO 100 KNOTS BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY WINDS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nFABIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...A LITTLE SLOWER...AT ABOUT 14\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST EAST\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WOULD\r\nALLOW FABIAN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE LONG RANGE.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH MOVES FABIAN WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 15.5N  43.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 15.8N  46.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  48.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N  53.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  57.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N  60.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  64.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nIMPROVE DURING THE DAY. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nWITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. THE OUTFLOW\r\nHAS ALSO IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS REACHED HURRICANE STATUS WITH 65\r\nKNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW BY THE SHIPS MODEL BUT WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW A PERSISTENT BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS WOULD IMPEDE SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE\r\n...AS THE MODELS INDICATE...AND TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION THAT THE\r\nGFDL MAKES FABIAN A 104-KNOT HURRICANE...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.\r\nA RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD\r\nPROVIDE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A LARGE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES RESULTING IN A TRACK\r\nMORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE. ONLY THE BAM MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SHOWING A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE\r\nUNIFORM DEEP-LAYER WESTWARD FLOW THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 15.7N  45.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N  47.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N  50.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N  52.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  55.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  58.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  61.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N  65.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n \r\nAN SSMI PASS AT 0036Z SHOWS THAT AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE PERSISTS AND\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC ARE AT 65\r\nKT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KT.  WITH WARM SSTS AND MINIMAL\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND SPEED TO\r\n93 AND 101 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE\r\nSAME AS THE LAST ADVISORY BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO A CONSERVATIVE\r\n90 KT IN 72 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ABOUT 290/13.  THE UKMET...\r\nNOGPAS...AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ONLY THE GFS\r\nMODEL MOVES FABIAN DUE WESTWARD FOR FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 16.5N  46.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 17.1N  48.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.8N  50.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N  52.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  55.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  58.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 21.5N  62.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N  65.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n\r\nFABIAN SHOWS GOOD ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO\r\n-80C NEAR THE CENTER AND EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE EYE SEEN IN EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES IS NOT\r\nCURRENTLY APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 90 KT FROM TAB...77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS PERHAPS A TOUCH TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nMOTION...285/13.  FABIAN REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 72-96 HR.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE RIDGE TO\r\nWEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72-96 HR...\r\nWITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION THEREAFTER.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 120\r\nHR FORECAST POSITION IS SOUTHWEST OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL.\r\n\r\nFABIAN REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR.  IT IS NOT\r\nOBVIOUS WHY THESE MODELS STOP STRENGTHENING THE STORM AT 48 HR...\r\nBUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO ALONG WITH THE GUIDANCE FOR THE\r\nTIME BEING.  ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM FOR FABIAN IS THE LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC FROM 18N-32N W OF 55W.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHIS SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS FABIAN APPROACHES.  HOWEVER...IF IT\r\nDOES NOT OR WEAKENS SLOWER THAN FORECAST...IT MIGHT CAUSE INCREASED\r\nSHEAR OVER FABIAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 16.8N  47.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.4N  49.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N  51.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.6N  54.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.2N  56.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  59.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 22.0N  63.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 24.5N  66.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FABIAN CONTINUES\r\nTO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE GOOD CENTRAL AND BANDING\r\nFEATURES...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...AN EYE FEATURE IS BECOMING APPARENT ON VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS\r\nBASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB...SAB AND\r\nKGWC...RESPECTIVELY. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON\r\nTHE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FABIAN IS MOVING OVER WARM\r\nWATER AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST RUNS OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED FROM THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO EVEN\r\nWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. \r\nTHIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE FABIAN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. IN THE SHORT RANGE...THE GFS MOVES\r\nFABIAN ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS\r\nIS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AND IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS TREATS\r\nFABIAN AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN EXCELLENT MODEL AND ATTENTION MUST BE PAID\r\nTO THE NEXT RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 17.2N  48.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N  50.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N  53.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  55.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  57.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N  61.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  64.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  67.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n \r\nFABIAN HAS AN OUTSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...TYPICAL OF MAJOR\r\nHURRICANES. \r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FABIAN HAS DEVELOPED\r\nA WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  IN\r\nADDITION...THERE ARE PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED. T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING\r\nWINDS OF 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON\r\nTHE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE OF\r\nTHE SEASON. THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS FOR FABIAN NOT TO GAIN\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTH SINCE THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE LOW AND THE MODELS INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER... THERE\r\nARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-OCEANIC\r\nTROUGH WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE\r\nCENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE UNFAVORABLE WINDS MAY INSTEAD IMPEDE\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN REMOVING\r\nTHESE WESTERLIES TOO QUICKLY AND THESE WINDS ARE STILL THERE. \r\n\r\nFABIAN HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\nABOUT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE HURRICANE IS NOW\r\nBEGINNING TO MOVE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFROM THE U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WOULD \r\nMAINTAIN FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nON THE LONG RANGE...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AS A\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER\r\nFABIAN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE\r\nSOUTHERMOST TRACK AS IT DID IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFDL AND THE REST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A\r\nLITTLE SOONER.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 17.4N  49.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.7N  51.6W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.0N  54.2W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.5N  56.5W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N  59.0W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  65.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY OF FABIAN CONTINUES TO IMPRESS THIS EVENING WITH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND A VERY TIGHT...10 NM\r\nDIAMETER EYE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nAIR FORCE GLOBAL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND ARE NOW AT 6.0. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 110 KT. \r\n \r\nFABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT\r\nABOUT 11 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THIS COURSE THORUGH THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nTRACK OF FABIAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE\r\nATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATING A TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON DAYS FOUR AND\r\nFIVE WILL HELP TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF FABIAN\r\nAND ALLOW IT TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. DEGREE TO WHICH THE TROUGH\r\nDEEPENS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH NOGAPS MOST AGGRESSIVE... DEVELOPING\r\nA FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH AND ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN NORTH SOONER.\r\nCONVERSELY...GFS NOT INDICATING AS DEEP A TROUGH AND REMAINS THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST TRACK OF ALL AVAILABLE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nLIES BETWEEN A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO THE EAST AND THE\r\nGFS TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR FABIAN NOT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT\r\nMORE WITH A FORECAST FOR LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...28\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL ARE INDICATING SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AS WELL.\r\n\r\nRADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IS ALSO BEING INCREASED TO 180 NM IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IN THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS BASED ON A SHIP\r\nOBSERVATION OF SEAS GREATER THAN 12 FEET ABOUT 190 NM FROM THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. FURTHER SUPPORT FOR THE LARGER RADII COMES FROM\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WAVE MODEL OUTPUTS THAT INDICATED A LARGER RADII\r\nOF 12 FT SEAS NORTH OF FABIAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER HOLWEG/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 17.7N  50.8W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 18.1N  52.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.6N  54.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.2N  57.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 20.1N  59.2W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 22.5N  63.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 25.0N  66.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  68.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003\r\n \r\nLATEST INFRARED IMAGERY OF FABIAN SHOWS A SLIGHTLY RAGGED LOOK TO\r\nTHE COLDEST CLOUDTOP TEMPERATURES SURROUNDING THE EYE.  THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY ONLY TEMPORARY BUT HAS ARRESTED ANY CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL REMAIN AT 6.0. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 110 KT.\r\n \r\nFABIAN IS NOW MOVING ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT\r\nAND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS COURSE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nAND THEN BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. LITTLE HAS\r\nCHANGED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF FABIAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES\r\nSOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nINDICATING THAT A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WILL CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF FABIAN AND ALLOW IT TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE DEGREE\r\nTO WHICH THE TROUGH DEEPENS DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH NOGAPS BEING MOST\r\nAGGRESSIVE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH AND ALLOWING FABIAN\r\nTO TURN NORTH SOONER. GFS AND UKMET NOT INDICATING AS DEEP A TROUGH\r\nAND REMAIN THE TWO SOUTHERN MOST TRACKS.  THE GFDL FALLS IN\r\nBETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nAFTER THE TEMPORARY PAUSE IN INTENSIFICATION AS MENTIONED ABOVE...\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE NO REASON FOR FABIAN NOT TO STRENGTHEN A BIT\r\nMORE WITH A FORECAST OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS. BOTH\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL ARE INDICATING SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS AS WELL.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 18.0N  51.9W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N  53.6W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.3N  55.8W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 20.1N  57.8W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 21.0N  59.8W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.4N  63.3W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 26.3N  65.4W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  67.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY AND CAN NOT BE\r\nCLEARLY OBSERVED WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AT THIS\r\nTIME...BUT THE EYE IS VERY DISTINCT ON THE LATEST AVAILABLE\r\nMICROWAVE SSM/I DATA. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL\r\nORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW. ALTHOUGH SOME OF\r\nTHE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A BIT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE KEPT AT\r\n110 KNOTS.  THE TRUE INTENSITY WILL BE KNOWN WHEN THE FIRST\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES THE HURRICANE EARLY MONDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE LOW. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nFAVORABLE...AT THIS STAGE...THE INTENSITY CHANGES ARE PROBABLY\r\nCONTROLLED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS.\r\n \r\nFABIAN IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO..PROVIDING A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST STEERING. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH\r\nUNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF THE U.S\r\nCOAST. A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET WILL SAMPLE THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONTROLLING THE PATH OF FABIAN LATER TODAY. WE SHALL SEE IF THE\r\nDATA IMPACTS THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 18.1N  53.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N  55.0W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N  57.3W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N  59.5W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N  61.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N  65.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 26.0N  67.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  68.5W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT AGAIN IN BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES. IT\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERFECT ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OR CDO\r\nAND SURROUNDED BY PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nEXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS AND T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE FROM ALL AGENCIES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS MAKES FABIAN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A MORE ACCURATE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nDETERMINED EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHES\r\nTHE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD WARM WATERS AND INTO A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WV IMAGES SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES\r\nAHEAD OF FABIAN HAVE BEEN DISAPPEARING AS CORRECTLY FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE THE LARGE SCALE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE...AT THIS STAGE...FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGES\r\nWILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS.\r\n \r\nFABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. AT THIS TIME...THE HURRICANE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A\r\nVERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALLOWING FABIAN TO TURN MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A TRACK\r\nPARALLEL AND AWAY FROM THE U.S EAST COAST.  THE OUTLIER IS THE\r\nCANADIAN GLOBAL MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\nLETS FACE IT...FABIAN HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nTRACK ENSEMBLE ALL ALONG.\r\n \r\nA NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET IS ALREADY LAUNCHING DROPSONDES IN THE\r\nSURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. TIME WILL TELL IF THE DROPSONDE DATA WILL\r\nIMPACT FUTURE MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 18.2N  54.0W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.3N  55.7W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  58.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N  60.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.0N  65.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  67.5W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 30.5N  69.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003\r\n \r\nFABIAN HAS EVOLVED INTO A CLASSIC INTENSE HURRICANE AS SEEN IN THE\r\nLAST FEW VISIBLE AND EVENING INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES. THE\r\nINNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME CIRCULAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND HAS EXPANDED TO THE WEST.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 140 KT FROM AFWA. THE 3-H OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER IS ALSO 127\r\nKT. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE ALSO WARMED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 120 KT. AIR FORCE\r\nRECON WILL BE IN AROUND 06Z AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RATHER\r\nINTERESTING INTENSITY DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nBERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 33N LATITUDE AND EXTENDING\r\nWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP FABIAN MOVING\r\nIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS BRING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS\r\nEASTWARD TO NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOW FABIAN\r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE AMOUNT OF EROSION VARIES\r\nWITH THE NOGAPS BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS ERODING THE\r\nRIDGE THE LEAST. THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BASED ON 500 MB HEIGHTS\r\nOF NEAR 5900 M REPORTED BY THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT NEAR 30N\r\nLATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A TAD FASTER AND SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...GFS CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSINCE FABIAN IS NEARING CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY...THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nMORE ROOM FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW\r\nAND HIGH SSTS...INNER-CORE EYE DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREFORE...LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. BY 96-120 HOURS...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO RESTRICT/INHIBIT THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST...SO SOME\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWHICH BRINGS FABIAN DOWN TO 77 KT IN 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE SELF-INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SINCE THE GFS MODEL\r\nLAGS FABIAN'S 200 MB ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST BY 120-180 NMI.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 18.5N  54.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.9N  56.4W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 19.6N  58.6W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N  60.6W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 21.5N  62.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.3N  65.7W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 27.5N  68.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  70.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2003\r\n\r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING FABIAN FOR\r\nTHE FIRST TIME.  ALTHOUGH THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS\r\nNOT AS LOW AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED VIA SATELLITE...THEY MEASURED\r\nWINDS TO 133 KT AT THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL.  USING THE 90 PERCENT\r\nRULE FOR 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS YIELDS A SIMILAR INTENSITY AS IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A STRONG HURRICANE\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY\r\nBE DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. \r\nHOWEVER FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFEW PACKAGES.  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA\r\nIS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD\r\nBREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN...AND CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN\r\nTOWARD A MORE NORTHWARD HEADING.\r\n\r\nTHE NOAA G-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT OF FABIAN YESTERDAY\r\nEVENING...AND THOSE DATA SHOULD HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATED INTO THE 00Z\r\nRUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  ONE INTERESTING ASPECT WAS THAT THE\r\nINITIALIZATION OF THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS SHOWED A MUCH STRONGER\r\nCIRCULATION OF FABIAN THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS.  THIS WAS PROBABLY\r\nDUE TO THE SAMPLING SOME OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWITH GPS DROPSONDES FROM THE JET MISSION.  EVEN THOUGH THE 00Z RUN\r\nUSED THIS MORE REALISTIC RENDITION OF FABIAN FOR ITS INITIAL\r\nSTATE...ITS FORECAST POSITIONS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THOSE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THE IMPROVED DATA FOR THE LATEST MODEL RUNS\r\nSHOULD GIVE US GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE PREDICTED TURN TO THE\r\nRIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\n...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 18.6N  55.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N  57.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 19.6N  59.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 20.7N  61.2W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 22.0N  63.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 25.0N  66.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  68.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 32.5N  69.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 120 KT...PENDING ANOTHER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON.  WIND RADII HAVE\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF\r\nA STRONG HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO CHANGES IN\r\nSTRENGTH WILL PROBABLY BE DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES SUCH AS\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. AT PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF AN\r\nOUTER EYEWALL THAT WOULD TEMPORARILY RESULT IN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTHINKING.  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA\r\nIS PREDICTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD\r\nBREAK DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE THAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN...AND CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TAKE A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD HEADING.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS TURN...WITH THE ENSEMBLE DEFINED BY THE NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT\r\nAND THE CANADIAN MODEL ON THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL...AN\r\nAVERAGE OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 18.9N  56.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.2N  58.3W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  60.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  62.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 22.3N  63.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  66.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  68.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  69.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 5.5 TO 6.0...102 TO 115 KT...BUT THE\r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE THEN. \r\nTHE LATEST RAW ODT ESTIMATE WAS NEAR 130 KT.  RECENT REPORTS FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT. \r\nTHIS CORRESPONDS TO 125 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL BE THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC SINCE THIS MORNING.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...EYEWALL\r\nDYNAMICS WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY AND SO FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nSTRENGTH ARE TO BE EXPECTED.  THERE REMAINS A BAND OF WESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WHICH MIGHT\r\nCONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING TREND IN 36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS\r\nCONTINUES TO ELIMINATE THESE WESTERLIES. FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/10...TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.   ALL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES A CONTINUED RIGHTWARD TREND OF THE STORM HEADING\r\nTHAT SHOULD LIMIT THE IMPACT OF FABIAN IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO\r\nLARGE SWELLS AND/OR DANGEROUS SURF.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED SOME THIS AFTERNOON. THE CANADIAN\r\nAND GFS MODELS...WHICH WERE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ERODES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO RULE\r\nOUT SOME IMPACT OF FABIAN FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 19.1N  57.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.6N  59.4W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  61.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  64.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.5N  66.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  68.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 38.0N  68.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FABIAN\r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON FIX AT 01/1917Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 125 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 127 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS ALSO BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. THIS GENERAL MOTION HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINED FOR MORE THAN 72 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE GLOBAL AND GFDL\r\nMODELS HAVE DONE AN EXCELLENT JOB SO FAR WITH FABIAN...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 \r\nHOURS OR SO...BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR INTENSITY CHANGES ARE EXPECTED\r\nSINCE FABIAN WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS OF AROUND 29C AND UNDER\r\nWEAK SHEAR. HOWEVER...BY 72-96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME FASTER WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS\r\nWHEN SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE 24C.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 19.4N  58.6W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.8N  60.1W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 20.8N  62.1W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 22.1N  63.6W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 23.3N  64.7W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  67.2W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  68.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 40.5N  67.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CENTRAL PRESSURE THAN\r\nON THE PREVIOUS MISSION AND...BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE\r\nWINDS...THE INTENSITY IS DOWN A BIT...TO 120 KT.  THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY\r\nOF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE.  WE SEE LITTLE\r\nEVIDENCE OF ANYTHING IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD CAUSE\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING...SO ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO SHOULD BE THE RESULT OF INTERNAL DYNAMICS.  SINCE THESE\r\nARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY MAINTAINS\r\nTHE CURRENT STRENGTH FOR A WHILE AND THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nDUE TO COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES FROM AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...WHICH HAS BEEN EXPECTED.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  A LARGE TROUGH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWITHIN 72 HOURS...WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN.  THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD BE GUIDED BY THE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH AND...LATE IN THE PERIOD...BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN\r\nADVANCE OF THE TROUGH.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS \r\nTHE LATEST U.K. MET AND GFS FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF\r\nTHE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS/WAVES FROM\r\nFABIAN SHOULD IMPACT THESE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/RHOME\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 19.8N  59.7W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 20.4N  61.1W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N  63.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  64.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 24.5N  65.2W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  67.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  67.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 41.0N  64.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003\r\n \r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION WARMS AND COOLS...BUT OVERALL THE SATELLITE\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE SINCE THE 06Z RECONNAISSANCE\r\nMISSION.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE 120 KT...WE PREFER TO\r\nLEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ALONE UNTIL THE NEXT FLIGHT NEAR 18Z.\r\nAS IT WAS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...THE OUTFLOW LOOKS A LITTLE\r\nPINCHED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A\r\nBAND OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS APPROACHING THE HURRICANE.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE UPPER ANTICYLONE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH FABIAN WILL ELIMINATE THESE WESTERLIES.  FABIAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AND COOLER SSTS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 295/9...AND RIGHT OF THAT\r\nOVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THIS TURN TO THE RIGHT...AWAY FROM THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY\r\nAPPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THIS TURN OVER\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD\r\nIN THE FORECAST ACCELERATION...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EAST AND\r\nFAST AND THE GFS AND GFDL MORE WEST AND SLOW.  THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHESE FOUR MODELS HAS PERFORMED SPECTACULARLY WITH FABIAN SO\r\nFAR...WITH A MEAN ERROR AT 4 DAYS OF ONLY 40 NM.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN FOLLOWING THIS CONSENSUS AND I SEE NO REASON TO\r\nCHANGE THAT THINKING NOW.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF\r\nTHE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...LARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS/WAVES FROM\r\nFABIAN SHOULD IMPACT THESE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 20.3N  60.4W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.9N  61.6W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.2N  62.9W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N  64.2W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 25.1N  65.3W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  67.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 35.5N  66.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 43.0N  61.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":25,"Date":"2003-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 102-115 KT...THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 130 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...WHICH STILL\r\nSUPPORTS 115-120 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE LAST EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE\r\nWAS 945 MB. TWO NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A\r\nRESEARCH MISSION IN FABIAN...AND REPORTED 105 KT AT THE SURFACE\r\nFROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...\r\nINSTRUMENT IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL.  HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT HAVE\r\nNOT SAMPLED THE STRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT...YET. INTERESTINGLY...\r\nTHE INTENSITY HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSTANT FOR THE LAST 36 HOURS. \r\nTHE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE CORE AND\r\nOUTER CIRCULATION. THE EYE DIAMETER TODAY IS ABOUT 30 NM...COMPARED\r\nTO 20 NM YESTERDAY.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT FABIAN MAY HAVE SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION LEFT IN IT IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL CONTRACTS. SUCH\r\nEYEWALL DYNAMICS ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HOWEVER...WHICH CALLS FOR LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\nAS EXPECTED...THE STORM HEADING CONTINUES TO BEND TO THE RIGHT.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE FORECAST THINKING OVER THE PAST TWO OR THREE DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS...A COMBINATION THAT CONTINUES TO PERFORM\r\nEXCEPTIONALLY WITH THIS SYSTEM.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD\r\nIN THE FORECAST ACCELERATION BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND THEREFORE THE\r\nFORECAST ERRORS AT THE LONGER RANGES COULD BE QUITE LARGE.  \r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nFABIAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 20.7N  61.1W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 21.4N  62.3W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 22.7N  63.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 24.1N  64.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  66.0W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  67.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 38.0N  64.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 46.0N  56.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":26,"Date":"2003-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2003\r\n \r\nA NOAA P-3 RECON AIRCRAFT MADE AN EYE PENETRATION AROUND 02/2221Z AS\r\nPART OF THE CBLAST RESEARCH PROJECT AND FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 125 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 944 MB. THE FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 113 KT AT THE SURFACE...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nINNER-CORE CONVECTION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ALSO WEAKENED\r\nAND BECOME MORE RAGGED IN APPEARANCE...AND AS A RESULT...SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO DECREASED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONINGS. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY\r\nAPPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 72 HOURS AND ERODING THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS ALLOWS\r\nFABIAN TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN THE LATER PERIODS.\r\n\r\nFABIAN IS EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS\r\nDUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THEN WEAKEN MORE\r\nRAPIDLY BY 96 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF FABIAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 21.1N  61.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  62.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 23.4N  63.9W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  65.1W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 27.2N  66.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  66.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  62.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 47.0N  52.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":27,"Date":"2003-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE MOST RECENT MISSION OF THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS \r\nINDICATE THAT FABIAN REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE...BUT MAY HAVE\r\nWEAKENED SLIGHTLY.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 123 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST EYEWALL...CORRESPONDING TO BORDERLINE CAT. 3/4 INTENSITY. \r\nTHE CURRENT MAX WINDS ARE HELD AT 115 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE\r\nSLIGHTLY GENEROUS.  THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE AREA...AS EVIDENCED BY A LACK OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALSO...THE EYE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT THAT IT HAS AN\r\nELLIPTICAL SHAPE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE FABIAN REACHES COOLER WATERS. \r\nHOWEVER...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOW TO BE BIASED TOWARD CREATING\r\nTOO MUCH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS RATHER SLOW...310/7...WHICH INDICATES THAT THE\r\nDEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIAN HAS BEEN WEAKENING. \r\nHOWEVER A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD TAKE PLACE AS THE\r\nHURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS WOULD BRING FABIAN\r\nDANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN 48-72 HOURS.  THEREFORE RESIDENTS\r\nIN THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 21.6N  62.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 22.4N  63.0W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 24.0N  64.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 25.8N  65.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  66.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 33.0N  66.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 39.0N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 48.0N  51.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":28,"Date":"2003-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS YESTERDAY BUT IT IS\r\nSTILL WELL DEFINED AND \r\nSURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS NOT PRESENT\r\nON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SHEAR BUT IS FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT 115 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...I WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS FABIAN THIS AFTERNOON TO LOWER THE\r\nWINDS.  CURRENTLY...UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE\r\nHEADING FOR FABIAN. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO HAVE ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG UPPER-LEVEL ANTICLONE. THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nBUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT\r\nFABIAN WILL BEGIN A NEW CYCLE OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM.\r\n \r\nFABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.\r\nFABIAN IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nREADY TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE TROUGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN WHICH\r\nFAVORS RECURVATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FABIAN IS THEN\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST PASSING\r\nDANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 22.4N  62.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 23.3N  63.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 25.0N  65.0W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  66.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  66.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  65.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 39.5N  60.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 48.5N  48.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":29,"Date":"2003-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE ON VISIBLE IMAGES WITH A VERY\r\nDISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 944 MB IN THE LAST RECON FIX.  HOWEVER...\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE LOWER AND THE MAX WINDS MEASURED SO FAR BY AN AIR\r\nFORCE PLANE AND THE TWO NOAA P3 INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS. HOWEVER...FABIAN HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nREGAIN SOME STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AND THE SHEAR DECREASES\r\nONCE THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST WEAKENS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nVERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER FABIAN DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST. FABIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND SOON WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE LARGE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN\r\nWHICH FAVORS RECURVATURE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FABIAN IS\r\nTHEN EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST PASSING\r\nDANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 22.9N  62.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 24.0N  64.2W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  65.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  66.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  66.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  63.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 45.0N  53.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 55.0N  37.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":30,"Date":"2003-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nA NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT SUPPORTING THE CBLAST EXPERIMENT MADE AN EYE\r\nPENETRATION AROUND 03/2245Z AND FOUND A 738 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n127 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT AND ALSO MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 939 MB. IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE REPORTED A WIND SPEED\r\nOF 142 KT AT 28 METERS ABOVE THE SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION\r\n...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08. FABIAN HAS ACTUALLY MADE A\r\nNORTHWARD JOG...AROUND 335/07...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO SOME RE-ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND EYEWALL. A MOTION BACK TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THE 03/18Z GLOBAL\r\nAND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS RUNS AND...UNFORTUNATELY...THE RECENT NORTHWARD JOG BY\r\nFABIAN HAS ALSO RESULTED IN A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS FABIAN\r\nDANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nWHILE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED...THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED AND MORE CIRCULAR...AND THE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED\r\nDOWN TO AROUND 18-20 NMI. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS INCREASED AND\r\nEXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST WHERE PREVIOUS\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS NO LONGER APPARENT. DRY AIR HAS BEEN NOTED\r\nWRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS AND THIS MAY BRING\r\nABOUT SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...BUT THE\r\nOVERALL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF NEAR 29C FAVOR A\r\nSTEADY OR SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 23.5N  63.1W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 24.9N  64.0W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.1N  65.1W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 29.7N  65.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 32.4N  65.3W   105 KT...DUE WEST OF BERMUDA\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 38.5N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 47.0N  49.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 55.5N  32.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":31,"Date":"2003-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO INDICATE SOME WEAKENING.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE ON THE\r\nHIGH SIDE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG.  SINCE FABIAN SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME\r\nSLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR.\r\n\r\nFABIAN IS GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT MOVES AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS\r\nLIKELY TO COMMENCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THE HURRICANE BEGINS\r\nTO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CONTINUES TO SHOW FABIAN\r\nPASSING DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA.  ACCORDINGLY...THE BERMUDA\r\nWEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THIS HURRICANE...BECAUSE FABIAN IS LARGE AND STRONG WINDS\r\nEXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 24.2N  63.5W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 25.7N  64.3W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 28.3N  65.3W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  65.4W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 33.7N  64.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 40.0N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 48.0N  45.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 56.0N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":32,"Date":"2003-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO REVEAL A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nESTABLISHED TODAY AS THE UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS\r\nWEAKENS. THIS LOW WAS PRODUCING SOME UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE WEST\r\nOF FABIAN 24 HOURS AGO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS.\r\nANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL MEASURE THE INTENSITY LATER\r\nTODAY. SINCE FABIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND\r\nWITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SOME SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING MAY\r\nOCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nTHE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN EXTENSIVELY\r\nDISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  FABIAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH...PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA AS A SEVERE HURRICANE\r\nAND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE\r\nEYE OF THIS HURRICANE. FABIAN IS LARGE AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL\r\nAWAY FROM THE CENTER. THE WEATHER SERVICE OF BERMUDA HAS ISSUED A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 25.2N  64.0W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 26.8N  64.8W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  65.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  65.0W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  63.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 41.0N  56.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 49.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 56.0N  26.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":33,"Date":"2003-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nFABIAN IS NOT ONLY A SEVERE BUT A LARGE HURRICANE. A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB AND HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS EXTENDING OUT TO ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. FABIAN HAS THE\r\nCHANCE TO RE-STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM\r\nWATERS AND LOW SHEAR.\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN...THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS CONTROLLED BY THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS SCENARIO HAS\r\nBEEN EXTENSIVELY DISCUSSED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.  FABIAN IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH...PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA AS\r\nA SEVERE HURRICANE AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER..FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nPREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE\r\nWEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6\r\nHOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT\r\nBERMUDA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 26.4N  64.4W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 28.1N  65.2W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  65.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  64.5W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  62.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 42.0N  54.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 51.0N  40.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 57.5N  21.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":34,"Date":"2003-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE...EARLIER\r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT FABIAN\r\nHAD STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY. TWO EYEWALL DROPS IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT BETWEEN 2000-2200 UTC INDICATED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF\r\n111 KT AND 114 KT. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO OBTAINED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 940 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE RAGGED...AN AREA OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS\r\nPERSISTED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE\r\nFOUND...SO THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONINGS. FABIAN HAS MADE ANOTHER\r\nSLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH AS IT DID THIS SAME TIME LAST NIGHT...SO\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE NEW NHC MODEL RUNS. FABIAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR\r\nBERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. BY 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nGET CAUGHT UP IN THE ENCROACHING MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BE\r\nACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nSOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS AS SMALL POCKETS OF DRY AIR GET WRAPPED INTO THE\r\nEYEWALL AND INNER-CORE REGION FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...THESE WILL\r\nLIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED ABERRATIONS AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nPREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE\r\nWEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6\r\nHOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT\r\nBERMUDA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWRAT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 27.9N  64.7W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N  65.0W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 32.6N  64.7W   110 KT...NEAR BERMUDA\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.9N  63.2W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 37.1N  60.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  51.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 53.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 58.5N  14.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":35,"Date":"2003-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RECON HAS REPORTED A CIRCULAR 40 NM MI RADAR\r\nEYE.  ALSO...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB.  THE RECON HAS JUST\r\nFLOWN INTO THE NE QUAD AND FOUND A 110 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. BASED\r\nON THIS...THE PRESSURE RISE AND EYE DIAMETER I AM ADJUSTING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 350/15. THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. FABIAN HAS\r\nMADE SEVERAL MINOR OSCILLATIONS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND WE HAVE\r\nMADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK.  BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBEEN WELL BEHAVED IN A FORECAST SENSE.  FABIAN IS NOW EXPECTED TO\r\nPASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO. BY 48\r\nHOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE ENCROACHING\r\nMID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nNEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BE ACCELERATED RAPIDLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nSOME FLUCTUATION IN THE INTENSITY IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS  HOWEVER...THESE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED ABERRATIONS\r\nAND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN\r\nINCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO TAKE ITS TOLL\r\nON THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nPREPARATIONS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION SINCE THE\r\nWEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 6\r\nHOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT\r\nBERMUDA SOME TIME THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 29.5N  65.2W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  65.3W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.3N  64.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 36.5N  61.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 38.5N  58.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 46.0N  47.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 54.3N  30.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 59.1N   9.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":36,"Date":"2003-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT VISIBLE AT THIS TIME ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA STILL SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A LARGE AND\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE THAT INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS LARGE AND ELONGATED. THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 BUT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 118\r\nKNOTS.  THIS DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEN SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTHEREAFTER...AS THE SHEAR INCREASES ANDTHE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS\r\nCOOL WATERS. FABIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFABIAN IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. FABIAN INNER\r\nCORE IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON. IN\r\nFACT...UNFORTUNATELY...THE PROJECTED TRACK BRINGS THE EAST EYEWALL\r\nWITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE ISLAND. FABIAN IS READY TO\r\nRECURVE AND IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  \r\n\r\nBERMUDA IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING STRONG WINDS AND THE WEATHER SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WORSEN. BERMUDA OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS HAVE IMPLEMENTED \r\nTHEIR HURRICANE PLANS AND AT THIS TIME...WE CAN ONLY HOPE FOR THE\r\nBEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 30.8N  65.4W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  65.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 35.5N  63.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 37.5N  60.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 40.0N  56.0W    80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 46.0N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 54.0N  31.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 60.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":37,"Date":"2003-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHE EYEWALL IS MOVING OVER BERMUDA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND\r\nFIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE. FABIAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS ESTIMATED\r\nINTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. THE BERMUDA AIRPORT REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 965.5 MB AND GUSTS TO 102 KNOTS AND HOUR AGO AND\r\nESTIMATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 115 KNOTS AT\r\n1955Z.  THERE WAS AN UNOFFICIAL REPORT FROM BERMUDA HARBOR RADIO OF\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF 102 KNOTS BEFORE THE 250 FOOT TALL INSTRUMENTED\r\nMAST BLEW DOWN.  PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FABIAN HAS HIT\r\nBERMUDA AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE\r\nSCALE.\r\n \r\nFABIAN SHOULD BE AFFECTING BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SINCE\r\nIT IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS. FABIAN\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT.\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE\r\nHURRICANE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nFABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF\r\nFABIAN WILL WEAKEN OR BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND IT\r\nIS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE\r\nTRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  65.1W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 34.8N  64.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  61.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 39.5N  57.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 42.5N  52.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 52.0N  38.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 59.0N  15.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 56.0N  17.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":38,"Date":"2003-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nFABIAN IS MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA.  LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE\r\nBERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE...USING A HAND HELD ANEMOMETER BECAUSE THE\r\nNORMAL WIND MEASURING EQUIPMENT WAS DESTROYED...WAS 50 TO 60 KTS. \r\nPRELIMINARY ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT FABIAN HAS HIT BERMUDA AS A\r\nCATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.\r\n \r\nFABIAN SHOULD BE AFFECTING BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SINCE\r\nIT IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS. FABIAN\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. ALL GUIDANCE IS\r\nNICELY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO\r\nDIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE BEGINS TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nFABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...AS USUAL...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN IF\r\nFABIAN WILL WEAKEN OR BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND IT\r\nIS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE\r\nTRANSITION FROM TROPICAL TO EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 34.1N  64.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 36.2N  62.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 38.6N  58.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 41.3N  54.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  49.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 48.0N  43.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 58.0N  33.0W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 59.4N  31.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":39,"Date":"2003-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECON MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 235/32 KTS ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BERMUDA.  SO THINGS SHOULD BE IMPROVING THERE\r\nFAIRLY QUICKLY.  \r\n\r\nALL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN\r\nBEGINS TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nFABIAN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP\r\nINTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE 96 HOUR INTENSITY\r\nREFLECTS THIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 35.6N  63.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 37.5N  61.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 40.1N  57.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 42.5N  52.7W    80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 44.8N  48.6W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 51.0N  40.9W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 58.2N  33.5W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 62.1N  31.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":40,"Date":"2003-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN HAS RETAINED AN\r\nEXCELLENT CLOUD PATTERN WITH AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE LAST RECON SEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KNOTS. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER\r\nCOOL WATERS AND IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19\r\nKNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 36.5N  61.5W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 38.5N  58.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 41.0N  54.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  49.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 47.5N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 52.5N  32.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 57.5N  10.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":41,"Date":"2003-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN IS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE\r\nWITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW.\r\nCONSERVATIVELY...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS...BUT WINDS\r\nCOULD BE HIGHER. FABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND\r\nIT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 209\r\nKNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM...IT MAY SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO MEANDER AS AN\r\nOCCLUDED CYCLONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST\r\nWHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nBUOY 44630 LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EYEWALL HAS REPORTED A PRESSURE\r\nDROP FROM 987.0 MB AT 18Z TO 968.7 MB AT 19Z. BASE ON THIS DATA THE\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF FABIAN HAS BEEN ESTIMATED AT 960 MB.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 37.5N  59.3W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 40.0N  56.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 44.0N  50.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 47.5N  45.5W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 51.5N  40.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 59.0N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 60.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 58.5N  32.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":42,"Date":"2003-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED\r\nHURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW\r\nABOUT 90 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\nFABIAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATERS AND IT SHOULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING 055/20...AND IS EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTORM...THE GLOBAL MODELS OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.  ONE..THE\r\nSYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN AND MEANDERS AS AN\r\nOCCLUDED CYCLONE. TWO...THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN...AND THEN MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST. THIS\r\nLAST SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST\r\nWHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 38.5N  57.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 40.2N  53.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 43.5N  48.9W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 48.0N  42.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 50.6N  36.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 55.9N  26.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 58.6N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 60.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":43,"Date":"2003-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIAN IS NOW BEGINNING TO FEEL THE\r\nEFFECTS OF THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AND SOME SHEARING IS EVIDENT.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WARM WATER BUT IS ENTRAINING SOME DRYER\r\nCOOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE START OF THE\r\nTRANSITION TO THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL RANGE FROM ABOUT 80 TO 90\r\nKNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 85 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFABIAN IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH THE TROUGH THAT IS APPROACHING\r\nFROM THE WEST AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/22. A CONTINUED GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...AS FABIAN BECOMES A FULL FLEDGED EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTORM...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.\r\nONE..THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN AND\r\nMEANDERS AS AN OCCLUDED CYCLONE. TWO...THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST...SLOWS DOWN...AND THEN MOVES OFF TOWARD THE EAST.\r\nTHIS LAST SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST\r\nWHICH WAS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM NCEP/OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 39.7N  54.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 41.8N  51.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 46.1N  44.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 51.2N  36.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 55.0N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 56.5N  21.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 60.0N  16.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 62.5N  15.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":44,"Date":"2003-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n\r\nA SLOW WEAKENING IS CONTINUING WITH FABIAN...WITH LESS INTENSE\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A SOUTHEAST-NORTHWEST ELONGATED\r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nSLOWLY DROPPING...SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT.  FABIAN IS\r\nCROSSING THE 25C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN\r\n12 HOURS...FAVORING FURTHER WEAKENING.  TYPICALLY THE WEAKENING\r\nWOULD BE MORE DRAMATIC OVER THE SUB 15C WATERS BUT A TRANSITION\r\nINTO A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST WITH NEAR\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GFS MODEL AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY... 050/22 KT... BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS FABIAN IS\r\nPICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE SEEN TO ITS WEST IN THE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES.  THE SHORTWAVE AND THE CYCLONE ARE LIKELY TO MERGE WITH AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW AHEAD OF A HUGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GFS NEAR GREENLAND.  THE REMNANTS OF FABIAN ARE LIKELY TO BE A\r\nSTRONG STORM/GALE CENTER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR MOST OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 41.4N  52.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 44.0N  48.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 48.5N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 53.0N  34.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 58.0N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 61.0N  39.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 58.0N  39.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 57.0N  35.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":45,"Date":"2003-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT A SMALL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nNEAR FABIAN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PAST SIX HOURS.  HOWEVER A\r\nFRONTAL TAIL IS FORMING ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE ALONG\r\nWITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE... SIGNS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS STARTING.  FABIAN\r\nHAS LITTLE TIME LEFT AS A HURRICANE... NOW IN ITS NINTH CONSECUTIVE\r\nDAY.  T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING AND WITH THE HURRICANE NORTH OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM OVER COLD SSTS BELOW 21C... THE INTENSITY HAS\r\nDIMINISHED TO ABOUT 75 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT FABIAN WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A\r\nVIGOROUS BAROCLINIC SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS PRETTY MUCH ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...\r\nMOVING NORTHEAST A LITTLE FASTER... 045/27 KT.   FABIAN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE TO ITS WEST AS PART OF AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW IN A HUGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE GFS NEAR\r\nGREENLAND.  THE REMNANTS OF FABIAN ARE LIKELY TO BE A POWERFUL\r\nSTORM CENTER WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR\r\nMOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.    THE INCREASE IN STRENGTH AT 72\r\nHOURS IS DUE TO A TIGHT GRADIENT FORECAST BETWEEN A HIGH OVER\r\nGREENLAND...THE MOUNTAINEOUS TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND AND THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHANKS GO TO OPC FOR THEIR COLLABORATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL WIND\r\nRADII AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.  THE CHANGE OF WIND AND 12 FOOT SEAS\r\nRADII WERE BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY\r\nOBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 43.4N  49.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 46.5N  44.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 51.0N  38.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 56.0N  32.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 60.0N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 60.5N  38.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 57.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 55.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":46,"Date":"2003-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nFABIAN MAY BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  IR SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT WHILE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...IT IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  ALSO...THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING\r\nEXPOSED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nFABIAN IS NOW WELL INTO THE WESTERLIES AND COLD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND IT SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nWITHIN 12-24 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS\r\nA LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HR.  DURING\r\nTHIS TIME...IT SHOULD MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OVER THE WATERS\r\nSOUTHEAST OF GREENLAND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. \r\nTHANKS AGAIN TO OPC FOR THE COORDINATION ON THE FORECAST POINTS AND\r\nINTENSITIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 45.3N  46.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 48.7N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 54.6N  33.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 58.6N  31.6W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 60.8N  32.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 60.0N  39.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 56.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 55.0N  32.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":47,"Date":"2003-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nFABIAN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE AND A 0008Z SSMI PASS\r\nDEPICT AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE WITH A VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  IMAGERY ALSO\r\nREVEALS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY\r\nEXPOSED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB.  AFWA\r\nAND SAB ESTIMATED THE INTENSITY AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.\r\n \r\nFABIAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BENEATH THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND OVER\r\nCOLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE\r\nCOMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...IT MAY\r\nREMAIN AS A LARGE AND INTENSE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS\r\nAS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS ALSO INDICATE\r\nTHAT FABIAN WILL INTERACT OR MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN 36\r\nHOURS CREATING A CYCLONIC LOOPING MOTION NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP\r\nOF GREENLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND AGREES WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 47.7N  42.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 51.8N  37.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 56.9N  32.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 59.9N  31.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 61.5N  33.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 59.0N  39.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 56.5N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 55.5N  30.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabian","Adv":48,"Date":"2003-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION BELOW -50C\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF FABIAN. IN ADDITION COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE INFILTRATED THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS IS IN FULL-SWING OVER WATERS\r\nNEAR 15C. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT DUE TO A LATE-ARRIVING\r\nBUOY REPORT OF 70 KT AT 0700 UTC.  FABIAN SHOULD REMAIN AS A LARGE\r\nAND INTENSE SYSTEM FOR A FEW DAYS AS GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW BELOW 960 MB NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF\r\nGREENLAND IN A DAY OR TWO.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...EXTRATROPICAL\r\nFABIAN SHOULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE\r\nEAST COAST OF GREENLAND.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LONG-LIVED HURRICANE FABIAN.  FUTURE\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1\r\nAND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 49.8N  39.2W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 53.7N  34.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 58.0N  32.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 59.7N  35.2W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 58.7N  38.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 57.0N  41.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN UPPER LOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION PRODUCING SOME SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHEAR. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 310 DEGREES\r\nOR NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 25.2N  92.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 26.6N  94.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 28.5N  96.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 30.5N  98.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N 100.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS...ALONG WITH REPORTS\r\nFROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT TD-11  HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE. THE MAXIMUM 1500 FT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR HAS BEEN 43 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO\r\nABOUT 34 KT AT THE SURFACE. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME SHIP AND OIL\r\nPLATFORM WIND REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE BROAD CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER SHAKY 300/09. RECON HAS HAD\r\nDIFFICULTY PINPOINTING THE BROAD CENTER...ALTHOUGH BUOY AND RECON\r\nWINDS CLEARLY SHOW A CLOSED A CIRCULATION. THERE ARE SOME\r\nINDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE AND THE RECON WIND REPORTS THAT THE\r\nCENTER MAY BE EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT IS INDICATED IN THIS\r\nADVISORY. IF THE CENTER DOES FORM FARTHER SOUTH...THEN LANDFALL\r\nWILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR MORE THAN WHAT THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. THE BAM MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT\r\nA SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD TRACK NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS... WHILE\r\nTHE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND ETA MODELS ARE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN\r\nEND OF GALVESTON ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A TAD\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SLOWER... AND IS\r\nBETWEEN THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...ETA\r\n...AND GFDL CONSENSUS. THIS KEEPS GRACE OFFSHORE THROUGH 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nLOCATED NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS\r\nALLOWS THE 200 MB FLOW TO WEAKEN...BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...\r\nAND BECOME DIFLUENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THIS UPPER-FLOW PATTERN...\r\nCOMBINED WITH 29C AND WARMER SSTS...IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS GRACE TO 57 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS. IF GRACE REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH AND MOVES SLOWER THAN WHAT IS\r\nFORECAST...THEN A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 25.6N  93.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 26.5N  94.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 28.0N  96.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 29.7N  97.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 30.9N  99.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED GRACE THIS\r\nEVENING AND FOUND A VERY POORLY DEFINED CENTER NEAR BUOY 42002 AND\r\nWINDS OF ABOUT 40 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1500 FT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATED AREA\r\nOF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF.  THIS SYSTEM IS MORE OF A\r\nNORTH-SOUTH TROUGH AS PRESSURES ABOUT 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nARE ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE CENTER...1009 MB.  THIS SYSTEM CAN\r\nONLY BE DESCRIBED AS POORLY ORGANIZED AND IT TAKES QUITE A STRETCH\r\nTO CALL IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nHAVING SAID THAT...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9 BASED ON THE\r\nAIRCRAFT CENTER POSITION AT 22Z WHICH WAS VERY NEAR BUOY 42002.  THE\r\nWIND AT THIS BUOY WENT TO SOUTH AT 10 KNOTS AT 02Z SO PERHAPS THE\r\nCENTER OR TROUGH AXIS HAS GONE BY.  A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WITH A WEAKNESS\r\nOVER TEXAS.  THE GFS...NOGAPS AND GFDL RESPOND TO THIS SETUP WITH A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE\r\nAND IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED MAINLY ON THE\r\nRECON FIX.  SINCE ALL OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ARE WELL NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS SHIFT IN\r\nTRACK DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY CHANGE TO THE WARNING AREA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG\r\nWITH A SHIP REPORT OF 36 KNOTS AT 00Z ABOUT 180 N MI NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND TO 52 KNOTS IN 24\r\nHOURS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER SHIPS THINKS THAT THAT GRACE\r\nIS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GFS MODELS\r\nSHOW NO INTENSIFICATION WHICH IS PROBABLY A BETTER FORECAST. \r\nUNABLE TO PUT MY MONEY WHERE MY MOUTH IS...I AM FORECASTING 50\r\nKNOTS IN 24 HOURS...BACKING OFF ONLY 5 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 25.5N  94.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 26.4N  95.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 27.8N  96.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 28.6N  98.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 29.2N 100.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND MULTIPLE...POORLY-DEFINED CENTERS WITHIN A\r\nLARGER ELONGATED CIRCULATION.  THE POSITION GIVEN FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nIS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL\r\nAS CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON\r\nTHE EXACT CENTER LOCATION FOR SUCH A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM\r\nANYWAY...SINCE THE MAIN BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG WINDS ARE\r\nSITUATED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  \r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE VICINITY OF BROWNSVILLE IS APPARENTLY\r\nINHIBITING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\nINDEED...GRACE MAY NO LONGER BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nHOWEVER...WE ARE RELUCTANT TO DOWNGRADE THE SYSTEM SO CLOSE TO\r\nLANDFALL...AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW CONVECTIVE FLAREUP\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12 WITH GREAT UNCERTAINTY.  SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nGRACE SHOULD PUSH THE SYSTEM INLAND WITHIN 12 HOURS OR LESS.  THE\r\nCURRENT NHC TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON\r\nA FASTER INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. \r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM GRACE SHOULD BE FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS. \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND OR WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN STATEMENTS\r\nISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 27.0N  96.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 27.8N  97.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 29.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 29.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Grace","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2003\r\n\r\nTHE HIGHEST WINDS RECENTLY OBSERVED WERE ABOUT 30 KNOTS AT SABINE\r\nPASS CMAN STATION AND GRACE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nAND ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.  THERE COULD STILL BE SOME GUSTS\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.   \r\n\r\nTHE POSITION OF THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OR ELONGATED TROUGH IS AT\r\nTHE TEXAS COAST.  AT 13Z THE LOWEST PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB WAS NEAR\r\nGALVESTON...BUT AT 12Z BUOY 42019 HAS 1008.7 MB.  THE CENTER\r\nPOSTION IS KEPT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE BUOY BUT IT COULD JUST AS\r\nWELL BE 100 MILES FURTHER NORTH NEAR GALVESTON.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 315/13.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS A WEAKNESS OVER TEXAS AND A\r\nSLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OCCURS INLAND.  THE IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE\r\nGFDL...GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE UKMET FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE\r\nMORE EXAGGERATED TURN FROM NORTHWARD TO SOUTHWARD BUT HAS THE SAME\r\nGENERAL IDEA AS THE OTHER MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE\r\nRELOCATION OF THE CENTER.\r\n  \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT IS INLAND FLOODING FROM RAINFALL WITH THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED EXPECTED TO SLOW TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WITH\r\nUP TO 6 INCHES ALREADY REPORTED IN HARRIS AND GALVESTON COUNTIES...\r\nAN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 9INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 28.4N  96.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 29.2N  97.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.5N  99.6W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N 101.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A \r\n25-KNOT SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY SURFACE AND RECON DATA.\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE NEWLY FORMED DEPRESSION IS POORLY DEFINED AND\r\nCONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SQUALLY\r\nWEATHER WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT\r\nIDEAL...BUT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nREACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING LITTLE BUT IT WILL SOON BE EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD\r\nFORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nEAST OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. \r\n\r\nIN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS...ONCE IN THE ATLANTIC...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 27.5N  87.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N  87.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 29.2N  84.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  82.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  80.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  77.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 34.0N  73.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  69.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nPREVIOUS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND MOVED EASTWARD AWAY FROM\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SOME SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED\r\nMOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MEAN CENTER...BUT I HAVE OPTED TO\r\nREMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LOCATION BASED ON NIGHTIME\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT CHANGE IN\r\nTHE SURROUNDING WIND FIELD NOTED IN THE GULF BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THE\r\nLAST RECON REPORT AROUND 03/2116Z INDICATED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD\r\nDROPPED TO 1011 MB AND THAT PRESSURE WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\nHOWEVER...A GRADUAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nIS EXPECTED TO RESUME IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND SLOWLY PICKS UP TD-12. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AS THE RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN TD-12 AND HURRICANE FABIAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND\r\nSLOW THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. BY 72 HOURS...AFTER\r\nFABIAN IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...THE RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES SHOULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR TD-12 TO MOVE\r\nMORE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDRY AIR HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER\r\n...MOISTURE FROM A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER THE YUCATAN MAY\r\nGET DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS WHEN THE SHEAR IS\r\nALSO FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO\r\nDEVELOP AND PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND ALSO ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT IT WILL BE ROUGHLY 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE DEPRESSION CAN\r\nBECOMES \"HENRI THE 8TH\"...TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 27.5N  87.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 28.1N  86.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 28.5N  84.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  82.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 29.3N  81.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  78.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 33.0N  75.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 36.5N  68.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TAKING ON A BIT OF A COMMA SHAPE. \r\nBASED ON RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA AND THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE THE\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SHEARING OVER\r\nTHE AREA DUE TO THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT. `THERE IS A 500\r\nMB TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...BUT SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD\r\nREMNAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.  THEREFORE A SLOW...GENERALLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD...MOTION IS FORECAST.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME TRAPPED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5\r\nSINCE THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH BAROCLINICITY OFF THE\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BE IN THE VICINITY IN THE\r\nGULF STREAM AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 27.8N  87.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 28.2N  86.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  85.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 28.8N  84.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 29.2N  82.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  79.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 32.0N  76.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 34.0N  73.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nDEPRESSION CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA COAST...HOWEVER...\r\nDATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION.  AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND IN THIS POSITION IS\r\nEXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/2.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN THE POOR RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER AND THE CONVECTION.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSTATES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR A SLOW EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...RIDGING\r\nBEHIND HURRICANE FABIAN COULD HELP KEEP THE DEPRESSION RELATIVELY\r\nCLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nSOLUTION. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS\r\nOF FLORIDA.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 27.9N  87.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 28.1N  86.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  85.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 28.9N  83.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  80.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 33.0N  77.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 35.0N  73.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING IMPRESSIVELY TODAY...WITH THE\r\nLATEST REPORT FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT OF 1002 MB...THE\r\nWINDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED THE POINT THAT JUSTIFIES AN UPGRADE TO\r\nSTORM STATUS. THE PEAK WIND FROM THE AIRCRAFT IN THE CONVECTION\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WAS 38 KT...OR ABOUT 30 KT WHEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE SURFACE...BUT THIS AREA WAS NOT SAMPLED AFTER THE MOST RECENT\r\nPRESSURE FALL. I EXPECT THAT THE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS WILL BE CONFIRMED BY THE NEXT AIRCRAFT WHICH\r\nWILL BE IN THE SYSTEM NEAR 00Z. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER JUMPED EASTWARD INTO THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY...\r\nMAKING THE INITIAL MOTION HARD TO ESTIMATE. MY BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n090/6.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES OVER THE FIRST HALF OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD....AND CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...RIDGING BEHIND HURRICANE FABIAN...AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COULD HELP KEEP THE DEPRESSION\r\nRELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE U.S. COAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER\r\nTHAT...HOWEVER...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVING A MORE ZONAL\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW TAKING THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA RELATIVELY QUICKLY. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TO THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS WITH\r\nA TRACK CLOSE TO THE COAST.  IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A PATH\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD BECOME\r\nABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE RELAXING SOMEWHAT.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE\r\nRAPID STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL DIFFICULT.  AFTER THE CYCLONE\r\nENTERS THE ATLANTIC...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND LIMIT\r\nREINTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS\r\nOF FLORIDA.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 27.8N  86.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 27.9N  85.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 28.3N  83.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.8N  82.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 31.5N  79.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 33.5N  76.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 35.5N  72.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORTS THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SATELLITE\r\nAND SURFACE REPORTS...INDICATE THAT TD-12 HAS CHANGED LITTLE. TWO\r\nFLIGHTS THROUGH THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER INDICATED\r\nSURFACE PRESSURES OF 1004 AND 1005 MB. THEREFORE...TD-12 IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/06...BASED ON THE GENERAL TREND\r\nIN THE RECON AND SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. 05/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nINDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS ALREADY BEEN CAUGHT UP BY A BROAD\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THERE ARE AT\r\nLEAST 2 MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UPSTREAM THAT SHOULD MOVE\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACT TO TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE DEPRESSION\r\nCURRENTLY HAS A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...BUT A RECENT BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT SHOULD\r\nHELP TO STRENGTHEN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO BE STEERED MORE BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTER MAY\r\nBE THE START OF MORE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND\r\nPOSSIBLY STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS\r\nOF FLORIDA.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM OR NOT...IT POSES A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 27.7N  85.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 27.8N  84.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 28.3N  83.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  81.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 30.0N  80.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 32.0N  78.3W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 34.0N  75.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 36.0N  71.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nAT 06Z...AN IR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 1001 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE AND 43 KNOTS WIND SPEED AT 1500 FEET FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A SECOND PASS AT 0742Z RESULTED IN A 1000\r\nMB PRESSURE.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL BUT INCREASING\r\nCDO FEATURE NEAR AND EAST OF CENTER.  THIS DATA BARELY QUALIFIES\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO BE UPGRADED TO A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM AND THE GFS INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN SHEAR THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nLIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAFTER WHICH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/06.  THE STORM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER-MEAN SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT LEAVING A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE\r\nLOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS ABOUT A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH ONLY SMALL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRAINFALL OVER LAND IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF\r\nCOAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND TODAY AS THE CDO FEATURE\r\nMOVES EAST AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS RAIN POTENTIAL AND THE\r\nTHREAT OF INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE A PRIMARY CONCERN IN\r\nCONNECTION WITH THIS STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 27.7N  84.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N  83.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 28.7N  82.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 29.6N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 30.8N  80.2W    40 KT...BACK OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 32.9N  77.6W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 34.5N  74.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 36.5N  70.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHE MOST RECENT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS...JUST BEFORE 12Z...INCLUDED\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB...850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 46\r\nKT...AND A SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE OF 38 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  SINCE\r\n12Z...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE BECOME LESS\r\nIMPRESSIVE.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND TIME...WILL LIMIT ANY\r\nPOSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE EXPECTED LANDFALL OF THE\r\nCENTER THIS EVENING.  HEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH\r\nOF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/7.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHIN\r\nABOUT 100 MILES OR SO OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRACK\r\nSHOULD BEND TO THE RIGHT.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER\r\nAND NEAR THE COASTLINE.  MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD BE\r\nFARTHER OFFSHORE.  THEREFORE...THE CLOSER HENRI TRACKS TO THE COAST\r\nIN THE ATLANTIC...THE WEAKER IT IS EXPECTED TO BE.  THE GFS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO ELONGATE AFTER 72 HOURS\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION TO BEGIN IN 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HENRI CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND\r\nFLOODING POTENTIAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 28.3N  83.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.7N  82.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 29.6N  81.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 30.7N  80.7W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 31.8N  79.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 33.5N  77.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 34.5N  74.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 35.0N  72.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HELPED LOWER\r\nTHE PRESSURE TO 997 MB...BUT RECENT IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS REASSERTING ITSELF.  THE MOST RECENT\r\nPRESSURE REPORT FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS BACK UP TO 999 MB.  THERE MAY\r\nBE ADDITIONAL PULSES OF APPARENT DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER FIX LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ERRATIC TODAY...BUT OVERALL YIELD\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/4.  THE FORECAST THINKING IS LARGELY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN CALLING FOR A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTRACK ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC WITHIN\r\nABOUT 100 MILES OR SO OF THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND THE TRACK\r\nSHOULD BEND TO THE RIGHT.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONG...WITH STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-WESTERLIES AND LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT\r\nHENRI WILL BE SHEARED TO PIECES AND THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT WILL BE\r\nTRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH AND DISSIPATE.  \r\n\r\nSHOULD HENRI REGAIN STORM STRENGTH IN THE ATLANTIC...THESE WINDS ARE\r\nLIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE QUADRANTS.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...A STRONG SYNOPTIC GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE\r\nHIGH AND THE DECAYING CYCLONE COULD BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. \r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH HENRI CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND\r\nFLOODING POTENTIAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 28.4N  83.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  83.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 30.1N  81.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 31.2N  80.3W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 32.0N  79.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 33.5N  76.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 34.0N  74.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 34.0N  73.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nHENRI GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF A CYCLONE THAT HAS SHEARED OFF THIS\r\nEVENING.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS TOTALLY EXPOSED WELL TO THE NORTH\r\nWEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION...AND THERE IS INCREASING\r\nSOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER.  THE\r\nLATEST REPORT FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003 MB...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN UNDER 40 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHORT TERM MOTION IS TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...BUT THE 24 HR\r\nMOTION IS TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nA HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 090/3.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SLOW\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ALSO...AND THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS PARALLEL TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTER OF HENRI HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY AS IT\r\nREFORMS IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THIS TREND WILL\r\nLIKELY CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nHENRI IS NOW EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THUS...AT BEST HENRI CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A WEAK\r\nTROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS WHAT IS CALLED FOR IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO A BROAD\r\nLOW PRESSURE AREA OR DISSIPATE IF THE SHEAR GETS TOO STRONG AND\r\nTHERE ARE NO MORE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER.  ONE CHANGE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IS TO MAKE HENRI A 35 KT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM AT 96-120 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONT AND A LARGE\r\nSURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...THE CYCLONE HAS SHOWN\r\nINCREASED CONVECTION AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR THE PAST TWO NIGHTS.  THE\r\nTHREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL HENRI IS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE SUCH BURSTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 27.9N  83.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.2N  83.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 30.2N  80.4W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 31.2N  79.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 32.5N  76.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 33.5N  74.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 33.5N  73.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nRECENT U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT DATA...ALONG WITH A 2352Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AND SURFACE DATA...INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN\r\nSURFACE WIND SPEED ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI IS LESS THAN 30 KNOTS. \r\nHENRI IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS AND ALL\r\nWARNINGS ARE LOWERED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED EASTWARD ACROSS\r\nFLORIDA WHILE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BEHIND NEAR\r\nTHE CENTRAL WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/03 BASED ON THE PAST 24-HOUR\r\nMOTION.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS\r\nAND A LOW-LEVEL IMPULSE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION.  THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE IMPULSE IS SHOWN TO PRODUCE 35 KNOT WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA. \r\nWHETHER OR NOT THIS SCENARIO ORIGINATES FROM THE WEAK LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION THAT IS HENRI IS NOT CLEAR...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTO 5 DAYS FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND CALLS THE SYSTEM EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN 72 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAIN BANDS ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND\r\n2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 27.7N  83.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 28.1N  82.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.1N  81.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  79.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 30.8N  78.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 32.5N  75.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 34.5N  70.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 37.0N  62.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nHENRI ABRUPTLY ACCELERATED THIS MORNING AND MOVED INLAND NEAR TAMPA\r\nAROUND 9Z.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A SMALL AREA OF\r\nRELATIVELY UNIFORM AND RAPID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nDEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC GRADIENT\r\nWEAKENS MARKEDLY NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS SO THE CURRENT RAPID INITIAL\r\nMOTION...060/17...SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. \r\nTHE 6Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS CAPTURED THE ACCELERATION OF HENRI. \r\nTHESE TWO MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND FORM THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY LESSENED...HENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND THE LOW\r\nLEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE.  IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS SHOWN AT 72 HOURS IS ONLY INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 28.7N  81.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 29.8N  79.4W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 31.0N  77.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 31.6N  76.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 32.0N  75.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 32.5N  74.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 33.5N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY\r\nINVESTIGATING HENRI...AND SO FAR THEY HAVE NOT FOUND MUCH IN THE\r\nWAY OF WIND.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 30 KT...BUT THE AIRCRAFT\r\nHAS NOT SAMPLED THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER YET.  THE 30 KT\r\nADVISORY WIND SPEED COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  HENRI IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A SMALL AREA OF\r\nRELATIVELY UNIFORM AND BRISK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nDEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS ENHANCED SYNOPTIC GRADIENT\r\nWEAKENS TO THE EAST SO THE CURRENT RAPID INITIAL MOTION...\r\n060/16...SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI.\r\n \r\nHENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME NOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nBRINGS HENRI UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THIS SEEMS EXCESSIVE GIVEN\r\nTHE MODEL-DIAGNOSED SHEAR OF 25 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nAFTER 36 HOURS...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND THE LOW\r\nLEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE\r\nFRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 29.4N  79.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 30.4N  78.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 31.3N  76.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 32.0N  75.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 32.5N  74.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED HENRI\r\nRECENTLY...AND FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006 MB AND MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 33 KT.  THE MAXIMUM WIND WILL REMAIN AT 30\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  HENRI IS\r\nCURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nDEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL CUBA AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SYNOPTIC GRADIENT\r\nWEAKENS TO THE EAST...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 050/13.  ADDITIONAL SLOWING SHOULD CONTINUE IN\r\nTHE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nSLOWING OF THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE\r\nBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF HENRI.\r\n \r\nHENRI WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME NOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO BRING HENRI UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THIS SEEMS\r\nEXCESSIVE GIVEN THE MODEL-DIAGNOSED SHEAR OF 25 KT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...AS THE HIGH BUILDS NORTH OF HENRI AND\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL SYNOPTIC FLOW REVERSES...THE SHEAR IS AGAIN EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE AND WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND BECOME LOST WITHIN THE\r\nFRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 30.3N  79.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 31.3N  77.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 32.5N  75.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 33.6N  73.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 34.3N  71.9W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 35.2N  68.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY\r\nINVESTIGATED HENRI...AND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND\r\nMAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED 100 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE ADVISORY INITIAL\r\nMAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BASED ON\r\nAIRCRAFT WINDS.  HENRI CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED WITH AN\r\nUNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/7 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF\r\nMOTION.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HENRI AS A LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT AND THESE MODELS SHOW\r\nHENRI GETTING TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF SHALLOW HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING\r\nAND IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEEDS.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FROM THE INCREASING\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SHOWS MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NEARLY 25-KNOT VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER HENRI AND INCREASING SHEAR IS FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS THE WIND\r\nSPEED TO 40 KNOTS AT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 30.8N  79.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 31.8N  78.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 32.8N  77.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 33.7N  75.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 34.5N  74.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 35.5N  72.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 35.5N  70.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 35.5N  69.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS A RATHER BROAD...NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THERE\r\nARE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...ENOUGH BANDING TO SUPPORT CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  HOWEVER THERE ARE NO SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...SO WE WILL WAIT FOR\r\nAERIAL RECONNAISSANCE IN A FEW HOURS TO MAKE A MORE PRECISE\r\nDETERMINATION OF THE CYCLONE'S STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...050/8...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND JUST A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SAME IS TRUE FOR\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED IN MID-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF A SPLIT IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FLOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING\r\nWITH TIME...PARTICULARLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST SLOWS HENRI DOWN BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 31.2N  78.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 32.0N  77.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 33.2N  75.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 34.1N  74.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 34.8N  72.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 35.0N  70.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 35.0N  69.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 35.0N  68.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n\r\nHENRI CONTINUES TO HAVE A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER...WITH VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWING SOME SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nBROADER CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT LOCATION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nSATELLITE FIXES AND A SHIP REPORT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER.  WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE\r\nSYSTEM...YET THE SHIPS MODEL INSISTS THAT HENRI CAN BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN THE FACE OF THIS SHEAR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A LITTLE STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT HENRI MAY LOSE SOME...OR\r\nALL...OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A\r\nNEARBY FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 045/5.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nHENRI'S EASTWARD PROGRESS WILL GET BLOCKED IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE TO NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  ACCORDINGLY THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT\r\nIN THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME.  IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF HENRI\r\nWILL BE LEFT BY THAT TIME HOWEVER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 31.6N  77.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 32.5N  76.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 33.5N  75.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 34.2N  73.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 34.6N  71.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 34.9N  69.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  68.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 35.0N  68.0W    25 KT \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HENRI IS\r\nINTERACTING WITH AN OLD FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...WITH COLD AIR ENTERING THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  THE CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION EAST AND NORTH OF THE BROAD CENTER...SO IT WILL REMAIN A\r\n30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT\r\nTRENDS...AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...AND MORE COLD AIR\r\nFORECAST TO ENTER THE SYSTEM AFTER 36 HR...THE CYCLONE IS NOW\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE IN 12-24 HR RATHER THAN\r\nCONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS MARKS A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HENRI IS EMBEDDED\r\nIN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE MOTION MAY SLOW EVEN\r\nMORE AFTER 36-48 HR AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 31.9N  76.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 32.5N  75.8W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 33.6N  74.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 34.3N  72.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 34.7N  71.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 35.0N  68.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 35.0N  67.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...INFRARED AND MICROWAVE...SHOWS THAT HENRI IS\r\nLOSING THE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND MAY BE TRANSFORMING INTO\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE LESS SAID...THE BETTER...ABOUT\r\nDIAGNOSING THE PHASE OR ENERGETICS OF A CYCLONE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\n30 KNOTS INCREASING SOON TO 40 KNOTS.  THE MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE 00Z GFS RUN SHOWS HENRI TO BE A SHALLOW LOW TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE FORECAST SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS BASED ON THE GFS FORECAST OF INCREASING PRESSURE\r\nGRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/07.  IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTHAT THE CENTER WAS JUST WEST OF DATA BUOY 41002 AT 06Z SINCE THE\r\nWIND SHIFTED FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 06Z.  THE CIRCULATION MAY BE\r\nSTRETCHED OR ELONGATED...AS SUGGESTED BY A 23Z QUIKSCAT PASS.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 32.5N  75.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 33.3N  74.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 33.8N  74.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 34.3N  73.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 34.8N  72.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 35.0N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 35.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 35.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nHENRI IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AXIS AND\r\nPRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER\r\nLOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATER...STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH AN ADJACENT\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS REMAINING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS SOON.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 055/7 WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE\r\nTO THE GREAT SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY OR MEANDERING\r\nIN A FEW DAYS AS STEERING CURRENTS BECOME ILL-DEFINED.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 32.7N  75.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 33.3N  74.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 33.8N  73.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 34.3N  72.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 34.7N  71.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 35.0N  71.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 35.0N  70.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 35.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n\r\nTHE GUILLOTINE HAS FALLEN ON HENRI.  CONTINUOUS VERTICAL SHEAR OF\r\n25-35 KT DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS WEAKENED ANY WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION... THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE OVER\r\nTHE COASTAL WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW COLD-AIR CUMULUS POURING INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nHENRI...NOT AN ATTRIBUTE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLOUD PATTERN MORE LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM WITH A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A WARM\r\nFRONTAL FEATURE NORTHEAST OF HENRI.  THUS... HENRI HAS LOST\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON WHETHER THIS\r\nWEAK SYSTEM IS SUBTROPICAL... BUT THE APPEARANCE OF FRONTAL\r\nFEATURES AND A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OVER 100 MILES FROM THE\r\nCENTER LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT IT IS INDEED EXTRATROPICAL.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/6 WITH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE\r\nTO THE ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM NORTHEAST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVING TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A SHORTWAVE INDUCES WHAT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A NEW LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHEAST OF MASSACHUSETTS.  THE NHC TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 33.0N  75.0W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 33.5N  74.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 34.0N  73.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 35.0N  71.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 35.5N  70.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isabel","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-06 13:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISABEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n9 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE FAR EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nISABEL. SINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. \r\n\r\nISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. \r\n\r\nA REGULAR ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 1500Z TODAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1300Z 14.0N  34.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.0N  35.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N  37.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N  40.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N  42.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N  46.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N  54.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isabel","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ISABEL\r\nIS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IT APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING\r\nA CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HAS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT THE NORTHEAST. THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS INDICATED BY\r\nGLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. IN ADDITION...SSTS ARE INCREASING ALONG\r\nTHE PATH OF ISABEL. THEREFORE...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED AND\r\nISABEL MAY BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  \r\n\r\nMORE RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 AT 12 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS AS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 13.6N  34.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 13.7N  36.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.0N  39.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N  41.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  44.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N  51.9W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isabel","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE\r\nDEFINED BY LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS AND AN\r\nEXPANDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE\r\nFAIRLY GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT THE NORTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND AN EARLIER ADEOS SCATTEROMETER SUPPORT INCREASING THE\r\nWINDS TO 45 KNOTS. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM AHEAD OF ISABEL AS\r\nINDICATED BY BUOYS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW.\r\nTHEREFORE...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nA 24 TO 36 HOUR SATELLITE LOOP INDICATES THAT ISABEL HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST...OR PERHAPS IT WAS A REFORMATION UNDER THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ERODE AND ISABEL COULD BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...GUNA...BUT A LITTLE BIT BIASED TOWARD THE GFS.\r\nTHE LATTER IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEYOND 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 13.4N  35.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 13.4N  36.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 13.5N  38.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 14.5N  40.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 15.5N  43.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N  48.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  53.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isabel","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT ISABEL HAS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. \r\nTHE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR\r\nTO GOOD ELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/09.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nISABEL IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW CENTERED NEAR 26N46W.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS LOW\r\nWILL CREATE ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW ISABEL TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHR...AND CONTINUE THAT GENERAL MOTION THROUGH DAY 5.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  SINCE SOME MODELS SHOWED\r\nSOMEWHAT OF A NORTHWARD BIAS WHEN FABIAN WAS IN THIS AREA...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\nIT IS ALSO NUDGED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nISABEL SEEMS TO HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...GOOD CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE...COLD CLOUD TOPS...AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE STORM TO 80 KT IN 60 HR AND THEN\r\nSTOPS INTENSIFICATION FOR REASONS NOT READILY APPARENT.  THE GFDL\r\nMAKES ISABEL A 90 KT HURRICANE IN 120 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AT 80 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE ISABEL\r\nSTRENGTHEN FASTER AND MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 13.4N  36.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 13.4N  37.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 13.8N  39.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 14.7N  41.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 15.6N  44.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N  49.4W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 18.0N  54.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 18.5N  59.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isabel","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISABEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...AND THE LAST FEW IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WRAP CLOSER TO THE CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nTO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL TAKES ISABEL TO 85 KT IN 72 HOURS...AND THE GFDL BRINGS\r\nTHE INTENSITY UP TO 95 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nBE RATHER CONSERVATIVE AND INDICATE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS...WITH THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AT 85 KT BY 72\r\nHOURS WHICH IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/09...SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH ISABEL BEING STEERED BY A MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 900 NM NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nLARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CREATE JUST\r\nENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BEYOND 12 HOURS...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION\r\nTHROUGH DAY 5.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE BASICALLY FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK ADJUSTED A TAD TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 13.7N  37.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 13.8N  38.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.8N  40.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 15.6N  43.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N  45.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  50.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N  55.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N  60.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT ISABEL HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nVERY LARGE RAGGED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 65 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS NEARLY CIRCULAR\r\nAND APPEARS TO BE UNRESTRICTED AND EXPANDING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/09...BASED ON ABOUT A 9 HOUR MOTION\r\nBETWEEN SUCCESSIVE MICROWAVE POSITIONS. THE EYE FEATURE IS RAGGED\r\nAND NOT REALLY A TRUE EMBEDDED EYE. CONVENTIONAL WATER VAPOR AND\r\nSSMI VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR HAS BEEN WRAPPING\r\nINTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS\r\nACTUALLY ERODED THE CONVECTION ON THE NORTH SIDE. FOR THIS REASON\r\n...THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\n'EYE' AND CLOSER TO THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THAT...THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION IS STILL MORE THAN 40 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nAND THERE IS GOOD CONVERGENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH\r\n48-72 HOURS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN...WHICH INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nSHIFT WESTWARD AND PERHAPS EVEN CLOSE OFF A 500 MB HEIGHT CENTER A\r\nCOUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO\r\nTHE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nAT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR SINCE ISABEL NOW HAS AN\r\nEYE FEATURE...IS OVER 82F WATER WITH WARMER SSTS AHEAD...AND HAS AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY\r\nMODELS BRING ISABEL UP TO 96 KT IN 42-60 HOURS...SO THIS TREND WAS\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWED. THE INTENSITY WAS LEVELED OFF AFTER 48 HOURS\r\nSINCE ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN CROSSING A POSSIBLE COLD WAKE\r\nLEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE FABIAN LAST WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 14.5N  37.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 15.1N  39.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 15.8N  41.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.6N  43.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 17.3N  46.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N  51.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 19.0N  55.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N  60.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nTHE ALLEGED EYE OF ISABEL PASSED OVER BUOY 13008 LOCATED AT 15N 38W\r\nBETWEEN 14-15Z. THE BUOY REPORTED 37 KT AND 24 KT NORTHEAST WINDS\r\n...TO THE SOUTH OF ALL THE SATELLITE CENTER POSITIONS. THESE WIND\r\nREPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYE FEATURE...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION. DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE EYE FEATURE...OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND OUTFLOW PATTERN HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. THE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS\r\nABOUT 24 NMI SOUTH OF THE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE 12Z GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW ON KEEPING AT LEAST A\r\nMODERATE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ISABEL ALONG 32N LATITUDE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN BUILD IT WESTWARD ACROSS\r\nTHE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP ISABEL MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL WESTWARD\r\nMOTION DEVELOPING AFTER THAT. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND SLOWED A LITTLE AFTER 72 HOURS...\r\nWHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nISABEL CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND...\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING IT TO BECOME EVEN\r\nBETTER. BY 36-48 HOURS... ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET\r\nARE FORECASTING MORE THAN 50 KT OF OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nISABEL BEING DRAWN INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A PATTERN LIKE THAT CAN OFTENTIMES LEAD TO\r\nRAPID OR EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS\r\nISABEL UP TO 97 KT IN 60 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS  A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER SINCE SHIPS WAS LOW/SLOW WITH THE INTENSIFICATION OF\r\nFABIAN. THE INTENSITY WAS LEVELED OFF AFTER 48 HOURS SINCE ISABEL\r\nMAY CROSS A POSSIBLE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY HURRICANE FABIAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 15.2N  39.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N  40.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N  42.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.2N  45.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N  47.7W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N  52.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N  55.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N  60.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS IMPRESSIVE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE 35 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90 KT FROM AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS\r\nDIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ISABEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH THE\r\nSYSTEM ENDING UP JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON\r\nDAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE INTENSIFICATION OF ISABEL\r\nVERY WELL SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 16.1N  40.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.8N  42.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.7N  44.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N  46.9W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 19.2N  49.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.7N  53.2W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 20.2N  56.7W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 20.5N  60.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS IMPRESSIVE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE WHICH HAS DECREASED IN DIAMETER SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 90 KT AND IS BASED\r\nON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KTS FROM TAFB AND 90 KTS\r\nFROM SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  IN FACT...ISABEL MAY BE STRONGER BUT\r\nI WANT TO SEE IF IT CAN MAINTAIN THESE SATELLITES ESTIMATES FOR AT\r\nLEAST ANOTHER CYCLE BEFORE I GO ABOVE 90 KTS\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/14. ISABEL IS MOVING IN THIS\r\nDIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BUT...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS AN UPPER COLD LOW THAT IS DEVELOPING\r\nTO THE WEST OF ISABEL.  THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF THIS COLD LOW MAY BE ADDING A NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO\r\nTHE MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLY MOVE THIS\r\nSYSTEM TOWARD THE WEST AND WEAKEN IT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nAND ISABEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH THE SYSTEM ENDING UP JUST TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES ISABEL TO 115 KTS IN 48 HOURS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM\r\nMAY BE IN A RAPID DEEPENING MODE AND MAY GET STRONGER SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 16.9N  41.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 17.9N  43.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 18.8N  45.7W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 19.4N  48.0W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 19.8N  50.3W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 19.9N  54.4W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 20.2N  58.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 20.6N  60.7W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 100 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...102 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT/T5.5 3-HOUR\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE 100 KT INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100\r\nKT AND 960 MB. OUTFLOW REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPROVE AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED DOWN TO 25 NMI.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. IS APPEARS THAT ISABEL MAY BE\r\nMAKING THE MORE WESTWARD TURN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nINDICATING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS EVEN MORE TIGHTLY PACKED AND\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ISABEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT. THIS IS QUITE\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND EAST-WEST ORIENTATION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 32N LATITUDE. A DISCONCERTING PART\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUING TO\r\nINSIST THAT ISABEL WILL MAKE A DIP SOUTH-OF-WEST AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\nTHEY BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\nBY 120 HOURS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAD A LEFT OF TRACK BIAS WITH\r\nFABIAN LAST WEEK...SO I PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO TO\r\nSEE IF THIS SAME BIAS DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO CAN NOT BE\r\nCOMPLETELY RULED OUT GIVEN THE DEEP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nNORTHWEST OF AFRICA THAT HAS BEEN DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD. THAT COULD\r\nCREATE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO NUDGE ISABEL\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE GFS-NOGAPS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nISABEL IS ABOUT 18-24 HOURS INTO A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...SO\r\nTHIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\nAFTER REACHING CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND\r\nEYEWALL DYNAMICS WILL DICTATE ANY INTENSITY CHANGES. HOWEVER...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST COULD EASILY BE TOO LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT AND\r\nFORECAST OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 17.2N  42.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 17.9N  44.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 18.6N  46.8W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 19.2N  49.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 19.4N  51.1W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N  55.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N  58.5W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 20.0N  62.5W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL HAS CONTINUED ITS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...102 KT FROM SAB...AND 113\r\nKT/T5.9 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ALSO\r\nCONTINUED TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THERE HAS BEEN SOME WOBBLING\r\nALONG THE TRACK THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE\r\nHURRICANES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nISABEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND\r\nTHEN TURNING MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48-72 HOURS. THE\r\nREASON FOR THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IS NOT APPARENT IN THE MODEL\r\nFIELDS...SO I AM CONTINUING TO PLACE LESS WEIGHT ON THAT SCENARIO\r\nAT THIS TIME BASED ON THOSE MODELS HAVING A PREVIOUS LEFT-BIAS WITH\r\nFABIAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK\r\nAFTER THAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nISABEL IS 24 HOURS INTO A RAPID INTENSIFICATION CYCLE...BUT RARELY\r\nDUE SUCH TRENDS OCCUR FOR MORE THAN 30-36 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LEVELED OFF AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nQUITE FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO ISABEL COULD\r\nSTILL REACH CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\nAFTER THAT...INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND EYEWALL DYNAMICS WILL\r\nDICTATE ANY FURTHER INTENSITY CHANGES. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST COULD EASILY BE TOO LOW GIVEN THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT...AND ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER 28C AND\r\nWARMER SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 17.9N  43.7W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 18.6N  45.6W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 19.2N  47.9W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N  50.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N  52.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N  55.5W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N  59.0W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N  63.0W   125 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0 OR 115\r\nKT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  ISABEL HAS AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALTHOUGH IT IS BEING SQUEEZED A LITTLE\r\nBIT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE THAT HAS SOME BEARING ON THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE\r\nNORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.  WHILE THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS BEND\r\nTHE TRACK ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT FROM 24-72 HOURS...THE GFS AND\r\nNOGAPS TURN THE TRACK HARDER...TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR EVEN\r\nSOUTHWEST...WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THESE\r\nISLANDS.  ONE DIFFERENCE IN THESE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS HOW STRONGLY\r\nISABEL INTERACTS WITH THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY\r\nAPPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTHEAST...AS WELL AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN.  IN\r\nTHE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE\r\nINTERACTION...WHILE IN THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE LOW IS CLOSE ENOUGH\r\nTO DRAG ISABEL SOUTHWARD.  IN PART BECAUSE OF THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF ISABEL...AND THE\r\nCURRENT DISARRAY OF TD FOURTEEN...MY FEELING IS THAT THE\r\nINTERACTION IS BEING OVERDONE BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND GFDL\r\nSOLUTIONS...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nI HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT FROM THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  SST ANALYSES SHOW THAT ISABEL WILL BE PASSING OVER THE\r\nCOOL WAKE OF FABIAN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THERE COULD BE SOME\r\nRESTRICTION OF THE OUTFLOW BY THE UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nNORTHEAST...EVEN IF THAT LOW DOES NOT COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO\r\nAPPRECIABLY AFFECT THE TRACK.  IT IS ALSO QUITE RARE FOR STORMS TO\r\nMAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS FOR FIVE DAYS.  EVEN WITH THIS\r\nADJUSTMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 18.5N  44.5W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 19.2N  46.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 19.9N  48.5W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N  50.6W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 20.0N  52.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 20.0N  56.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 20.0N  59.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 21.0N  63.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n \r\n06Z DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T NUMBER 6.0 OR 115\r\nKNOT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS WERE THE SAME. THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE AND CLOUD STRUCTURE REMAIN IMPRESSIVE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...TO 125 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW\r\nWEAKENING.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IN THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS.  HOWEVER HURRICANES RARELY MAINTAIN SUCH A HIGH WIND\r\nSPEED FOR FIVE DAYS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS WEAKENING AFTER 60\r\nHOURS BECAUSE OF THIS FACTOR.  FABIANS COOL WAKE COULD ALSO BE A\r\nNEGATIVE FACTOR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12.  THE GFS SHOWS A STRONG SOUTHWARD\r\nBUILDING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AHEAD OF ISABEL AND THE TRACK\r\nMODELS RESPOND BY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST DURING  DAY 1\r\nTHROUGH 3 FOLLOWED BY A SMALLER WESTWARD TURN ON DAY 4 OR 5.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A MODEL CONCENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO WITH ABOUT 200 MILES\r\nNORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERNMOST ISLANDS OF THE CARIBBEAN ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  THE AVERAGE ERRORS OF 4 AND 5 DAY TRACK FORECASTS ARE MORE\r\nTHAN 200 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 19.1N  45.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 19.8N  47.5W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 20.3N  49.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 20.3N  51.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N  53.3W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 19.5N  56.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 20.0N  59.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 21.0N  63.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 115\r\nKT. THE EYE BECAME CLOUD-COVERED EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT OVER\r\nTHE PAST 3 HOURS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT...BECOME BETTER DEFINED\r\n...AND EYEWALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO COOL.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...DESPITE THE WEAKENING TREND INDICATED BY THE 3-HOUR\r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. ISABEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A\r\nSTEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...DESPITE\r\nMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTING A TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST. IT APPEARS THAT ISABEL IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE SOUTHERLY\r\nFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LOW JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nMOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.\r\nTHE WEAKENING OF THE LOW COMBINED WITH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNEAR BERMUDA SHOULD ALLOW ISABEL TO MOVE IN A WESTWARD MOTION BY 24\r\nHOURS OR SO. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\nA SHARP WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 36 HOURS. OUT OF RESPECT\r\nFOR THESE MODELS...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG IS INDCIATED IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK. THE UKMET...HOWEVER...MODEL IS NOT FORECASTING THAT\r\nSOUTHWARD JOG. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...\r\nESPECIALLY WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF ISABEL\r\nENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE THE LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST IS ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THAT AREA.\r\nTHIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST\r\nANOTHER 48 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\nGIVEN THAT ISABEL IS ALREADY A CAT 4 HURRICANE...SPECIFIC\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL BE DICTATED BY EYEWALL DYNAMICS LIKE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES THAT CAN NOT BE FORECAST WITH ANY SKILL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 19.6N  46.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 20.1N  48.4W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 20.3N  50.3W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 20.2N  52.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 19.9N  54.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N  57.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  60.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 21.0N  64.5W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 115\r\nKT. THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVER\r\nTHE PAST 2 HOURS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SOME. ALSO...\r\nEYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SOME TOPS AS COLD\r\nAS -80C TO -85C. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO\r\n115 KT AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...SO IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT ISABEL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE. HOWEVER...I WOULD\r\nPREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER FEW HOURS TO SEE IF THE EYE CLEARS OUT\r\nBEFORE INCREASING THE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. ISABEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A\r\nSTEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE PAST 2-3 DAYS AND ALL OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A PROFOUND LEFT-OF-TRACK BIAS...\r\nESPECIALLY THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS. THEREFORE...IT IS TIME TO\r\nBAIL OUT ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSER\r\nTO THE MORE NORTHERN GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACKS...BUT IT WAS NOT SHIFTED AS FAR NORTH AS THE UKMET SOLUTION.\r\nTHE MAIN REASON IS THAT THE LARGE MID-/UPPER-LOW JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS AND THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW HAS SHIFTED FROM A\r\nSOUTHERLY DIRECTION TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS SHOULD IMPART LESS\r\nOF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO ISABEL WITH TIME AS THE LOW CONTINUES\r\nMOVE QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ON A LARGER SCALE...THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST AND A\r\nDEEP TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THE RESULTING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nBUILD AND MAINTAIN A RIDGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP ISABEL MOVING IN A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAAST U.S.\r\nAND ERODES THE RIDGE A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISABEL.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 48 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nNEARING T6.5...127 KT...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS PROBABLE TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 20.3N  47.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.1N  49.4W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 21.6N  51.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 21.7N  53.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 21.8N  54.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 21.9N  57.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 22.0N  60.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N  64.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF ISABEL IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.  DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS ARE 5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE 3-HR AVERAGE RAW ODT IS\r\nALSO DOWN TO 5.4. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 115 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS...IS\r\n295/12...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLY THE BEGINNING OF THE\r\nEXPECTED WESTWARD TURN...BUT THREE HOURS OF MOTION IS NOT ENOUGH TO\r\nBE SURE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE EYE OBSERVED\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD.  REGARDLESS...ISABEL IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...\r\nGLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 75 AND\r\n80W THAT WOULD ALLOW A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 OF THE FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS BEEN\r\nCONSISTENTLY DEFINED BY THE UKMET ON THE NORTH AND THE GFS/NOGAPS\r\nON THE SOUTH. AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE UKMET HAS BEEN THE BEST\r\nPERFORMER SO FAR WITH ISABEL AND THE GFS HAS BEEN THE WORST.  THE\r\nUKMET ALSO WAS THE BEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR FABIAN.  THE\r\nINITIAL VORTEX FOR ISABEL IN THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MUCH\r\nWEAKER THAN THE INITIALIZATION IN THE UKMET...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT\r\nCERTAIN THAT THIS EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. \r\nGIVEN THE RECENT MOTION...I HAVE NUDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AND SLIGHTLY ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...SO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES\r\nAND THESE ARE GENERALLY VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 20.6N  48.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 21.3N  50.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N  52.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N  53.9W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N  55.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 21.5N  58.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 22.0N  61.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 23.0N  65.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH IS IMPRESSIVE BUT IS SOMEWHAT\r\nLIMITED TO THE EAST. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 AND 5.5 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB..RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE BACK UP\r\nTO 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 115 KNOTS.\r\nTHERE IS NO SHEAR AND THE OCEAN IS INCREASINGLY WARMER. THESE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. BUT...IN MAJOR HURRICANES...CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE\r\nCONTROLLED IN GENERAL BY EYEWALL THERMODYNAMICS. THEREFORE...SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE INDICATED TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTIES.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS BECOMING RATHER INTERESTING. LAST FEW\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ISABEL HAS BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 275 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS. HOWEVER...A LONGER TERM AVERAGE IS STILL TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ISABEL. DEPENDING UPON THE\r\nFORECAST STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...EACH MODEL MOVES ISABEL EITHER\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGE AND IS\r\nPRODUCING THE SOUTHERMOST AND DANGEROUS TRACK. THE UK HAS A WEAKER\r\nRIDGE WITH THE NORTHERMOST TRACK BUT STILL INDICATING A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS APPEARS TO BE VERY SLOW BUT IT IS\r\nSHOWING THE SAME WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TREND. THE BOTTOM LINE IS\r\nTHAT A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND\r\nBERMUDA. THIS PATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN ISABEL ON A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING THE CORE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nIF THE CURRENT WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nHAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE NEXT TERM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 20.9N  50.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N  52.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N  54.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 21.5N  56.0W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 21.5N  58.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 21.5N  60.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 22.0N  63.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  67.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS\r\nDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. THIS HAS SENT CIRRUS CLOUDS\r\nSPREADING SOUTHWARD AND OBSCURING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LARGE\r\nEYE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS JUST A TAD NORTH OF THE\r\nSATELLITE POSITIONS. ISABEL REMAINS A POWERFUL HURRICANE BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.\r\nOUTFLOW ALSO REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS IMPROVED TO THE WEST\r\nAND TO THE EAST...WHILE BECOMING SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLE IN\r\nTHE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6 HOUR... WHICH IS FAIRLY TYPICAL OF\r\nINTENSE HURRICANES. RECENT SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS SUGGEST A SHARP\r\nDUE WEST MOTION OF 270 DEGREES. HOWEVER...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT\r\nUNTIL THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT BEFORE TAKING ISABEL OFF ON A\r\nDUE WESTWARD TRACK. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE 06Z GFS AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS HAVE FINALLY ABANDONED THEIR SLIGHT SOUTHWARD JOG AND\r\nACTUALLY LOOK QUITE REASONABLE. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS...HOWEVER\r\n...HAVE MORE POLEWARD MOTION...AND THE UKMET NOW APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nDEVELOPED A RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS. THEREFORE...THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nSOLUTIONS WERE FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH SEEMS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE CURRENT 5-WAVE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN HEMISPHERE. THE STRONGEST ANCHOR LOW/TROUGH IS LOCATED\r\nOVER SOUTHERN GREENLAND AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 45W LONGITUDE.\r\nMAINTAINING A 5-WAVE PATTERN SPACING WOULD EVENTUALLY YIELD A\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN 3-5 DAYS...WITH A RIDGE\r\nALONG AND EAST OF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISABEL IS EXPANDING WESTWARD AND IS\r\nSTARTING TO GET DRAWN INTO THE LARGE MID-/UPPER-LOW NORTH OF PUERTO\r\nRICO. OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IS ALSO EXPANDING...SO SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...TIMING THE EFFECTS\r\nOF INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE CHANGES IS IMPOSSIBLE MORE THAN ABOUT 12\r\nHOURS IN ADVANCE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 21.3N  50.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N  52.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 21.7N  54.4W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 21.8N  56.0W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 21.9N  57.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 22.0N  61.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 23.0N  64.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 23.5N  68.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ISABEL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS AFTERNOON\r\nAS EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -75C AND COLDER...WHILE THE EYE\r\nHAS CLEARED OUT AND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS AVERAGE OUT TO T6.5...OR 127 KT...\r\nWITH A PEAK T-NUMBER OF 7.1...OR 143 KT...AT 1815Z. THE 3-HOUR ODT\r\nAVERAGE IS T6.3...OR 122 KT. THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES EASILY\r\nJUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT IS\r\nQUITE POSSIBLE THAT ISABEL IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY INDICATES...BUT WE PREFER TO USE THE 3-HOUR ODT VALUES TO\r\nSMOOTH OUT ANY INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. ISABEL HAS\r\nDEFINITELY MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST. UNFORTUNATELY...THE 12Z\r\nGFS MODEL HAS RETURNED TO ITS OLD WAYS AND NOW MAKES A JOG BACK TO\r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N LATITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS APPEARS\r\nTO BE DUE TO POOR INITIALIZATION OF ISABEL BY THE MODEL...AND THE\r\nGFS MAINTAINS A PATHETIC LOOKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...\r\nCERTAINLY NOTHING REMOTELY RESEMBLING A MAJOR HURRICANE...THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS. THE RESULT IS THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE WEST OF\r\nISABEL FORCES THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CANADIAN MODEL\r\nAND THE UKMET... TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE...ALSO HAVE SIMILAR\r\nLOOKING WEAK CIRCULATIONS...THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. ONLY THE\r\n12Z NOGAPS MODEL INITIALIZES ISABEL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. SINCE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\n....WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF ISABEL CONTINUES TO EXPAND WESTWARD\r\nAS IS GETS DRAWN INTO THE LARGE MID-/UPPER-LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...SO SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. HOWEVER...THE ONLY GOOD\r\nNEWS ABOUT INTENSE HURRICANES IS THAT THEY GENERALLY DO NOT REMAIN\r\nINTENSE FOR VERY LONG...SO SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 21.2N  51.9W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 21.3N  53.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.4N  55.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 21.5N  56.9W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 21.7N  58.6W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 22.0N  62.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N  66.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 23.5N  69.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5...127 KT...AND SO\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. THE MOST RECENT 3-HR\r\nAVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS JUST BELOW 130 KT.\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS CURRENTLY NO UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...\r\nTHERE ARE TWO VERY EFFICIENT OUTFLOW CHANNELS OPERATING TO THE WEST\r\nAND EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9.  THE WESTWARD TRACK IS THE\r\nRESULT OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF\r\nISABEL NEAR 30N.  THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE\r\nWESTWARD WITH ISABEL FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND MAINTAIN\r\nISABEL ON A TRACK JUST A BIT NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD.  BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEARLY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSLOWS THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGH AND ALLOWS THE TRACK TO\r\nSLOW AND BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.  THE FOUR MAIN TRACK MODELS...\r\nTHE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...ARE NOW IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nNORTHWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nTHE ONE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...A MODEL VERY SKILLED AT FORECASTING\r\nLARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE OTHERS IN BRINGING ISABEL NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS\r\nBY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nIT IS NATURAL TO WANT TO SPECULATE ON THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 5\r\nDAYS...BUT IT SIMPLY IS NOT POSSIBLE TO DO SO WITH CONFIDENCE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MARKEDLY ON HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL\r\nREMAIN OFF THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST BY DAY 5.  THE EXTENT AND\r\nORIENTATION OF THIS RIDGING WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING THE\r\nPOTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE BAHAMAS AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nGIVEN THAT ISABEL IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY FROM THESE\r\nAREAS...THIS WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR RESIDENTS TO REVIEW THEIR\r\nPREPAREDNESS PLANS IN CASE ISABEL BECOMES A DIRECT THREAT. \r\n\r\nTHE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT INTO ISABEL IS SCHEDULED\r\nFOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  MISSIONS TO SAMPLE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF ISABEL ARE ALSO SCHEDULED TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 21.1N  52.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 21.2N  54.3W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 21.4N  56.2W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 21.7N  58.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 22.0N  60.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 23.0N  64.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N  68.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 25.0N  71.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2003\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION FOR EASTERLY FLOW INSTEAD OF WESTERLY FLOW\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS EXCELLENT WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT ISABEL CONTINUES\r\nTO HAVE TWO WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNELS.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW\r\nAND THE OCEAN IS WARM...ISABEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS. \r\n\r\nISABEL IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER\r\nEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST FORCING ISABEL TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK. BECAUSE THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO TEMPORARELY\r\nWEAKEN...ISABEL COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND THEY ALL SUGGEST A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TURN...BRINGING THE CORE OF ISABEL PARALLEL AND JUST \r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.  IN FACT THE GFS...NO LONGER BRINGS\r\nISABEL STRAIGHT WESTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nHAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR...HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.  \r\n\r\nNOTE: ALL MODELS RE-DEVELOP A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JUST\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION\r\nOF THIS RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE ISABEL WILL\r\nGET TO THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 21.3N  53.7W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 21.4N  55.1W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 21.7N  57.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 22.0N  59.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 22.5N  61.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 24.0N  65.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 25.0N  69.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  72.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL IS MORE SYMMETRICAL-LOOKING THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT\r\nHAS A TEXTBOOK APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.\r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED 25 N MI DIAMETER EYE IS EMBEDDED IN VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS AVERAGE ABOUT 6.7 GIVING A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 130 KT.  THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS IN\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT...SO CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY TO BE DICTATED\r\nPRIMARILY BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES.  ISABEL SHOULD REMAIN A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST NEAR 8 KT AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN\r\nDEEP LAYER EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\nGLOBAL AND GFDL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS ISABEL NEARS THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE HIGH.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nIS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.  THE LATEST GFDL RUN IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THAT MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING MORE AND MORE\r\nTO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST FEW RUNS.\r\n \r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TWO MOST IMPORTANT PLAYERS IN THE\r\nSTEERING OF ISABEL APPEAR TO BE THE RIDGE NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nAND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.\r\nTHERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE WAY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HANDLES\r\nTHESE FEATURES.  SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW SHOW\r\nTHE TROUGH AS THE MORE DOMINANT SYSTEM.  IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE\r\nTHE CASE...THEN THE HURRICANE COULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD THAN SHOWN\r\nHERE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 21.4N  54.5W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N  56.0W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 21.8N  58.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 22.2N  60.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 22.8N  61.9W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 24.0N  65.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 25.0N  69.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  72.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY TODAY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL\r\n3 AGENCIES...TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE NOW 7.0 AND OBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE ALSO ABOUT THE SAME VALUE.  THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 140 KT...A CATEGORY 5 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON\r\nHURRICANE SCALE.  HURRICANES RARELY MAINTAIN SUCH STRENGTH FOR VERY\r\nLONG...AND ISABEL MAY NOT STAY A CAT 5 FOR EVEN AS LONG AS SHOWN\r\nHERE.  THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE BUT THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE\r\nNARROWING AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF\r\nAN IMPACT ON THE INTENSITY OF ISABEL.  ANOTHER POSSIBLE FACTOR IS\r\nTHE COOLED SST WAKE PRODUCED BY HURRICANE FABIAN IN THE VICINITY OF\r\n63W.  SINCE THERE DO NOT TO BE ANY MAJOR INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT...INTERNAL DYNAMICS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES\r\nWILL PROBABLY HAVE THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON INTENSITY CHANGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE ON OUR HANDS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/8...ALONG WITH SOME MINOR TROCHOIDAL\r\nWOBBLES.  A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL IS\r\nLIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN THE GUNA CONSENSUS. \r\nTHIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET OFFICE TRACK.  THE\r\nLATTER MODEL IS THE WESTERNMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nTHE BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEYOND THE 5-DAY\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO STATE WITH ANY\r\nCONFIDENCE WHETHER A SPECIFIC AREA ALONG THE U.S. COAST WILL BE\r\nIMPACTED BY ISABEL.  THIS WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE\r\nSTRENGTH AND POSITIONING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR THE EAST\r\nCOAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST AROUND THE\r\nMIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  UNFORTUNATELY...WE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN\r\nPREDICTING THE EVOLUTION OF STEERING FEATURES AT THESE LONG RANGES. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 21.6N  55.3W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 21.7N  56.7W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 21.9N  58.6W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 22.4N  60.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 22.9N  62.3W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 24.0N  65.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 25.0N  68.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N  71.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL LOOKS LIKE IT IS ABOUT TO BEGIN AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. \r\nAN AMSU MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z SHOWED THREE-FOURTHS OF AN OUTER\r\nEYEWALL.  AT 2313Z...AN SSMI PASS SHOWED TWO CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALLS...WITH SOME EROSION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE INNER\r\nEYEWALL.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY WHICH\r\nALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTH\r\nEYEWALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND EYE\r\nAND MOAT BETWEEN THE TWO EYEWALLS CAN EVEN BE SEEN IN THE RAW\r\nRETURNED SIGNAL FROM THE QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 2116Z. \r\nWHAT THIS MOST LIKELY MEANS IS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE INNER EYEWALL COLLAPSES...BUT THEN\r\nCOULD REINTENSIFY AFTER THAT AS THE OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS.  WE DO\r\nNOT NORMALLY TRY TO INCLUDE THESE KINDS OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT BECAUSE THIS REPLACEMENT SEEMS TO\r\nBE UNDERWAY I HAVE TAKEN A SHOT AT IT.  REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE\r\nSTRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  RECENT SST\r\nANALYSES SHOW THAT THE COOL WAKE OF FABIAN IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING\r\nAND MAY NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON ISABEL.\r\n\r\nA SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE LEFT IS OCCURRING AT THE MOMENT...BUT THE\r\nLONG-TERM MOTION REMAINS 280/8. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC THINKING...SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE...OR\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ISABEL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THE SLOW WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BEYOND THE\r\n5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT\r\nPORTIONS OF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 21.6N  56.1W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 21.9N  57.5W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 22.3N  59.4W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 22.7N  61.3W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 23.3N  63.2W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 24.5N  66.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 25.5N  69.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 26.5N  72.5W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":25,"Date":"2003-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT OR THAT CAN BE ADDED TO THE\r\nSTRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISABEL AFTER THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.\r\nBASED ON THE OUSTANDING CLOUD PATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 140 KNOTS. REGARDLESS OF HOW THE CORE\r\nSTRUCTURE EVOLVES IN THE NEAR TERM...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nHERE COMES A LITTLE DISCUSSION ABOUT THE FOUR MAIN MODELS. THE GFDL\r\nWHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL...TURNS THE HURRICANE MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...AND DEPENDING UPON THE RUN YOU\r\nPICK...THE TURN OCCURS FARTHER TO THE WEST OR FARTHER TO THE EAST.\r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE UK MODEL WHICH HAS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT\r\n...MOVES THE HURRICANE FASTER AND BRING ISABEL DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE U.S. COAST IN 5 DAYS. THE GFS WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING ITS TUNE\r\nFROM RUN TO RUN...IS MUCH SLOWER AND IN 5 DAYS PLACES THE HURRICANE\r\nABOUT 450 N MI FROM THE U.S COAST. THE GFS EVENTUALLY BRINGS THE\r\nCENTER NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN SEVERAL MORE DAYS.\r\nFINALLY...THE NOGAPS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFS UP TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nNOTE: THEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON THE DEVELOPMENT AND THE WESTWARD\r\nEXPANSION OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE BEYOND 5\r\nDAYS. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...THE HURRICANE COULD POSE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nHAVING SAID ALL THAT...HERE COMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ISABEL HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  MOST IMPORTANTLY...DUE TO THE LARGE VARIATION IN\r\nMODELS FROM RUN TO RUN...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHAT PORTIONS\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 21.7N  57.0W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 22.0N  58.4W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 22.5N  60.5W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 23.0N  62.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 23.5N  64.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 25.0N  69.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  71.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 27.5N  74.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":26,"Date":"2003-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003\r\n\r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT SHOW\r\nTHAT ISABEL HAS COMPLETED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.  IT NOW HAS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 35 NM WIDE EYE WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS STILL GOOD IN THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANTS...BUT IS ONLY FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE AND ON THE\r\nWHOLE LOOKS LESS GOOD THAN YESTERDAY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE ALL 140 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...SINCE\r\nTHE TIME OF THE ESTIMATES THERE HAS BEEN SOME WARMING OF THE\r\nEYEWALL CONVECTIVE TOPS.  NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  ISABEL IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NEAR 29N55W...AND BETWEEN LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ALONG\r\n68W AND 41W.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO\r\nPOSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  FURTHER UPSTREAM...A DEEP\r\nLAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. \r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE WESTERLIES OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL DETERMINE THE LONG-RANGE COURSE OF\r\nISABEL.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOLLOWS ALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.  CONSIDERABLE\r\nDIVERGENCE OCCURS AFTER 72 HR.  THE UKMET CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 120 HR TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN RIDGE LEFT BY\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...GFDL... CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL CALL FOR AN\r\nEARLIER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  SINCE ALL MODELS KEEP SOME DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nISABEL...SO SHARP OF A TURN LOOKS A LITTLE DUBIOUS.  THUS...THE 3-5\r\nDAY OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE UKMET AT A SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nISABEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 72 HR.  DURING THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY\r\nSHOULD BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY HARD-TO-FORECAST EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING\r\nTHROUGH THAT TIME BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS\r\nAND CLIMATOLOGY.  AFTER 72 HR...THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT\r\nISABEL MAY MOVE NORTH OF A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AND GET EXPOSED TO\r\nSOME SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING 30 KT\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 120 HR.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST ISABEL TO GROW IN\r\nSIZE BEYOND 72 HR...WHICH MAY BE REFLECTED IN LATER WIND RADII\r\nFORECASTS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AT 120 HR...IT IS STILL TO EARLY\r\nTO EVEN SPECULATE WHICH PARTS...IF ANY...OF EASTERN COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES MAY GET AFFECTED BY ISABEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 21.6N  57.8W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 21.8N  59.1W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 22.2N  61.2W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 22.8N  63.4W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 23.4N  65.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 24.5N  69.5W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 25.5N  72.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 27.5N  75.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":27,"Date":"2003-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nCONFIRM THAT ISABEL IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE.  MAXIMUM OBSERVED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 156 KT AT 700 MB...SUPPORTING SURFACE\r\nWINDS NEAR 140 KT.  THE EYE IS 30 NM WIDE WITH A CLOSED WALL AND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 140\r\nKT...WHICH AGREES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT ISABEL LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO.  THUS IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER YESTERDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS RECENTLY NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...BUT THE LONGER TERM\r\nMOTION REMAINS 270/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ISABEL IS\r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE SEEN\r\nIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N55W...AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ALONG\r\n68W AND 42W.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO\r\nPOSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  UPSTREAM...A DEEP LAYER\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN\r\nCANADA.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SOUTHEASTERN SYSTEM TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD...LEAVING A WEAKNESS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCANADIAN RIDGE AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.  NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\n72 HR... AND TO THAT TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS AFTER 72 HR.  THE\r\nUKMET CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 120 HR IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS ALL CALL FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  SINCE ALL MODELS KEEP\r\nSOME DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF ISABEL...SO SHARP OF A TURN CONTINUES TO LOOK A LITTLE\r\nDUBIOUS.  THUS...THE 3-5 DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE\r\nUKMET.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET IS CALLING FOR MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR THAN FORECAST EARLIER...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS THUS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AFTER 72 HR.  GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AT 120\r\nHR...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHICH PARTS...IF ANY...OF\r\nEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES MAY GET AFFECTED BY ISABEL.\r\n\r\nISABEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 72 HR.  DURING THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY\r\nSHOULD BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THAT\r\nTIME BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CLIMATOLOGY. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...THE GFS AND SHIPS MODELS SUGGEST ISABEL MAY BE\r\nAFFECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING AFTER\r\n72 HR.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST ISABEL TO GROW\r\nIN SIZE BEYOND 72 HR EVEN IF THE INNER CORE WEAKENS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 21.8N  58.6W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 21.9N  59.9W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 22.4N  62.1W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N  64.3W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 23.6N  66.3W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 24.5N  69.5W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 26.0N  72.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 28.5N  75.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":28,"Date":"2003-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGES TRANSMITTED FROM A NOAA/HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION\r\nFLIGHT INTO ISABEL LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nSECOND CONCENTRIC EYEWALL ABOUT 20 NM OUTSIDE OF THE INNER EYEWALL.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT CREW ALSO REPORTED A STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE\r\nRADIOMETER MEASUREMENT OF A 140 KT SURFACE WIND LATE IN THE\r\nAFTERNOON. CONCURRENT WITH THIS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF AN OUTER\r\nEYEWALL...THE CORE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT DID LAST\r\nNIGHT AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nSOME DRY AIR HAS BEEN INFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION. SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 6.0...AND THE LATEST CIMSS ADVANCED\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK 3-HR AVERAGE T NUMBER IS ALSO 6.0...WELL BELOW\r\nCATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY. I VERY MUCH DOUBT THAT ISABEL STILL HAS\r\nWINDS OF 140 KT...BUT SINCE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE\r\nHURRICANE IN JUST THREE HOURS...WE WILL WAIT FOR CONFIRMATION OF\r\nTHIS APPARENT WEAKENING TREND. IT IS VIRTUALLY UNHEARD OF FOR A\r\nHURRICANE TO REMAIN AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH FOR MORE THAN 30\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  ISABEL REMAINS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING THE WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT.  THIS\r\nANTICYCLONE CONTINUES WESTWARD IN STEP WITH THE HURRICANE...AND\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  BY 72 HOURS...THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE CAROLINAS\r\nCOULD PLAY A KEY ROLE IN WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST WOULD\r\nEVENTUALLY BE AFFECTED BY ISABEL.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE\r\nVERY SIMILAR IN HOLDING THIS FEATURE IN PLACE ALMOST A DAY LONGER\r\nTHAN THE UKMET...WITH THE RESULT THAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS TURN\r\nISABEL MUCH MORE SHARPLY NORTHWARD THAN THE UKMET.  THE GFDL TURNS\r\nISABEL EVEN MORE SHARPLY THAN THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS...AND THE\r\nEUROPEAN MODEL ALSO SEEMS TO FAVOR AN EARLIER TURN NORTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT IS STILL CLOSER TO THE UKMET THAN THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE.  IN PART THIS IS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH\r\nPREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT ALSO BECAUSE THE UKMET HAS BEEN PRESENTING\r\nA MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THAN HAVE\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 21.8N  59.5W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 22.2N  60.9W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 22.8N  63.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 23.4N  65.1W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N  67.0W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 25.0N  70.0W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  72.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 29.5N  74.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":29,"Date":"2003-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003\r\n \r\nTHE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN\r\nTO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE\r\nHIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF\r\nTHE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN\r\nANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING\r\nTREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS...\r\nISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.\r\nTHIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL \r\nAPPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST.  \r\n\r\nHIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE.  THE CONSISTENT AND\r\nGOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH\r\nCAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE\r\nGFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY\r\nFROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO\r\nFAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS\r\nTIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE\r\nEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND\r\nISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST.  HOWEVER...THE LARGE\r\nSCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE. \r\n\r\nNOTE:  THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT\r\nEVER REACH FLORIDA.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 22.0N  60.4W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 22.2N  61.6W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N  63.7W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 23.5N  65.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 24.5N  67.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  70.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 28.5N  72.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 32.0N  74.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":30,"Date":"2003-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE BASED ON A\r\n13/1102Z SSMI OVERPASS SHOWING A CLOSED 35 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 130 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS DATA...A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 127\r\nKT...RAW ODT VALUES OF T6.5...OR 127 KT...AND THE FACT THAT THE EYE\r\nHAS CLEARED OUT NICELY AND SURROUNDING EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nCOOLED TO -70C AND COLDER ONCE AGAIN. NEXT RECON MISSION IS AT 18Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/08. OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS...ISABEL HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING AT 275 DEGREES. THE HURRICANE MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD\r\nWOBBLE DURING THE EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...BUT IT NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A 275-280 DEGREES MOTION. ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nAND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE HAD A DISTINCT RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS BY AS\r\nMUCH AS 10 DEGREES...AND EACH MODEL RUN HAS BEEN A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nWEST AND SLOWER. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 06Z GFDL RUN WHICH MADE A\r\nMAJOR SHIFT WESTWARD BY MORE 200 NMI IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS\r\n...WHILE THE 06Z NOGAPS MODEL ACCELERATED ISABEL AND HAS THE\r\nHURRICANE ONSHORE THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN 120\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST\r\nBEFORE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OCCURS IN THE LATER PERIODS. THE\r\nMODELS OBVIOUSLY HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLING THE STRONG RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ISABEL VERY WELL. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE OUTFLOW ON THE\r\nNORTH SIDE BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD AND SINKING ALONG 30N-33N...WHICH\r\nMAY HAVE HELPED TO STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THIS PATTERN HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 72 HOURS\r\nAND CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH ISABEL. THEREFORE...A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO.\r\nAFTERWARDS...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE MODELS\r\nAND HOW THEY HANDLE THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROUGH HAS\r\nBECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTATION. THIS WOULD\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT OUT AND ALLOW THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF ISABEL TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE 06Z GFS...GFDL...AND ETA...AND 00Z UKMET SOLUTIONS. THE KEY\r\nWILL BE HOW THE CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH EVOLVES AND HOW DEEP IT DIGS\r\nINTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHEN OR WHERE ISABEL\r\nWILL MAKE LANDFALL. HOPEFULLY...THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV SYNOPTIC\r\nDATA MISSION AT 14/00Z WILL PROVIDE BETTER MODEL CONVERGENCE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ISABEL HAS A RATHER LARGE EYE DIAMETER...CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER WARMER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 22.2N  61.5W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 22.6N  63.0W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 23.0N  64.8W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 23.7N  66.7W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 24.5N  68.7W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 26.0N  71.0W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N  73.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 31.5N  75.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":31,"Date":"2003-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A PLETHORA OF WIND DATA FROM BOTH THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS THIS AFTERNOON. IN SUMMARY...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 AND 158 KT\r\n...ALONG WITH A DROPSONDE WIND VALUE OF 178 KT...OR 205 MPH...AT\r\n879 MB...ALL OF WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF\r\n141-142 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO\r\n140 KT/160 MPH...SO ISABEL IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/11. THIS MAY BE A SHORT-TERM\r\nACCELERATION DUE TO THE EYE CONTRACTING DOWN IN SIZE AND\r\nRE-ADJUSTING WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE 285\r\nDEGREES MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE A STEADY TREND. THE NEW 12Z GFS\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS COME IN ALMOST ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICAL\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN IS LEFT OF THE TRACK BY 72 HOURS\r\n...BEFORE HOOKING BACK ACROSS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nACCELERATING ISABEL NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO IDENTICAL TO\r\nTHE 12Z ETA MODEL RUN. SIMILARLY BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST ARE THE GFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS.\r\nINTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON A SHARP DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED OR A STALL IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY\r\nACCELERATING ISABEL NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST AND A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE CURRENT STRENGTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...SO IT IS PRUDENT\r\nTO WAIT UNTIL ALL OF THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA MAKE IT\r\nINTO THE 14/00Z MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD ACCELERATION INDICATED AT 120 HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST\r\nREGRET. NOTE -- NONE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ISABEL OVER LAND\r\nBY 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWHILE SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...\r\nTHERE IS NO WAY TO REALLY TIME THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE. IN THE LONG RUN...UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...\r\nWITH THE HURRICANE ALSO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER. THEREFORE...A\r\nSTEADY INTENSITY OR ONLY VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 120 HOURS...ISABEL MAY BEGIN TO\r\nEXPERIENCING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH\r\nSHOULD BRING ABOUT MORE RAPID WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ISABEL IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 22.6N  62.6W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N  64.2W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 23.7N  66.2W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 24.4N  68.0W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 25.2N  69.4W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 26.5N  71.5W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 29.5N  73.0W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 33.5N  75.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":32,"Date":"2003-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS AND ISABEL MAY HAVE WEAKENED A LITTLE.  BUT SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY VALUE OF 140 KNOTS WAS BASED ON AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAND THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS AT 06Z...THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY VALUE OF 140 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED FOR 5\r\nDAYS BUT THE SHIPS STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKENS\r\nISABEL TO 70 KNOTS IN 5 DAYS...AS A RESULT OF INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND CLIMATOLOGY AMONG OTHER FACTORS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFOR WEAKENING TO 100 KNOTS IN 5 DAYS...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS\r\nAND THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF MOTION.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA.  AN APPROACHING\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST TO BYPASS ISABEL ON ABOUT DAY 3...BUT THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD PICK UP THE HURRICANE BY ABOUT DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT IS STILL CLOSE TO THE WESTERN-MOST GUIDANCE WHICH IS\r\nTHE GFS MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED FOR 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nON DAY 4 AND 5.  NOTE THAT THE 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION IS RATHER\r\nCLOSE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC U.S. COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 23.0N  63.7W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 23.7N  65.4W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 24.5N  67.3W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 25.2N  68.7W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 25.9N  69.8W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 28.0N  71.6W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 31.6N  73.4W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 36.5N  75.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":33,"Date":"2003-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS\r\nOF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE\r\nBUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140\r\nKNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE\r\nNEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH\r\nUNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC\r\nCOAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR\r\n5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS\r\nCONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 23.3N  65.2W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 23.8N  66.8W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 24.5N  68.5W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 25.5N  69.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 26.5N  70.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 29.0N  72.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 33.1N  75.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 39.5N  77.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":34,"Date":"2003-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ISABEL HAS WEAKENED DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS OR SO. EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE -70C AND THE\r\nTHREE SATELLITE AGENCIES HAVE COME IN WITH A CONSENSUS INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T6.5...OR 127 KT. THE EYE REMAINS VERY DISTINCT AND\r\nCIRCULAR...ALBEIT WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE 40 NMI DIAMETER. THE\r\nINTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN DECREASED SLIGHTLY DOWN TO 135 KT SINCE THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME EMBEDDED DIRECTLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. SUCH PERFECT SYMMETRY OFTENTIMES INDICATES A CYCLONE\r\nSTRONGER THAN SATELLITE THE ESTIMATES...WHICH WAS THE CASE\r\nYESTERDAY. RECON WILL IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SATELLITE FIX\r\nPOSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND THE LATEST 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO NOW STRONGLY\r\nCONVERGENT ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE WAS A SLIGHT\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE IS NOW MUCH LESS\r\nDIVERGENCE AMONG THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE\r\nEXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH\r\nCOULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL\r\nFARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND\r\nSTRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA.\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH\r\nCAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND\r\nMORE LIKELY.\r\n\r\nONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND\r\nREMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96\r\nHOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nUNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL\r\nREMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB\r\nWIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER\r\nBANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 23.7N  66.3W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 24.2N  67.9W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 25.2N  69.6W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 26.1N  70.6W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 27.2N  71.6W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 30.0N  73.2W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 34.5N  75.5W   110 KT...NEAR NORTH CAROLINA\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 41.0N  77.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":35,"Date":"2003-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n \r\nTHE AFTERNOON PLETHORA OF RECON WIND AND PRESSURE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nISABEL REMAINS BARELY BELOW CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY. AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 150 KT...OR\r\n135 KT SURFACE EQUIVALENT...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nEYEWALL...WHILE A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE REPORT INDICATED\r\n171 KT AVERAGE WINDS IN THE LOWER 150 METERS...OR 139 SURFACE WIND\r\nEQUIVALENT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ISABEL IS BEING MAINTAINED\r\nAT 135 KT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE AND HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO EXPAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. RECON FIX\r\nPOSITIONS HAVE BEEN COMING IN RIGHT ON TRACK AND THE LATEST 12Z NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS 2 FORECAST\r\nTRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL RUN HAS CONTINUED ITS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND THE 96-120H TRACK IS AT LEAST 90 NMI WEST OF THE\r\n00Z TRACK. ONE DISTURBING BIT OF INFORMATION IS THAT THE 12Z\r\nUKMET... GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS DID NOT ANALYZE THE 500\r\nMB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS TO THE 12Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR OBSERVATION\r\nOF 10 KT NORTHEAST WIND AND 5940 METER HEIGHT. THIS OBSERVATION\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BERMUDA AND ISABEL EXTENDS\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FARTHER THAN THOSE FOUR MODELS ARE INDICATING. MORE\r\nRIDGING WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM... ISABEL\r\nSHOULD MOVE FARTHER WEST THAN THESE MODELS ARE FORECASTING BEFORE\r\nTHE HURRICANE BEGINS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL\r\nINITIALIZED THE 500 MB PROPERLY TO THE BERMUDA OBSERVATION...AND\r\nTHE 12Z NOGAPS TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS AND\r\nCURRENT FORECAST TRACKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE REMAINS SOME\r\nUNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL OF ISABEL COULD OCCUR SINCE\r\nTHE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD STILL DEEPEN AND DIG MORE\r\nSOUTHWARD THAN THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. THIS COULD INDUCE A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AND RESULT IN LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST. BUT AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL MODEL RUNS...A LARGE AND VERY\r\nSTRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EAST OF\r\nISABEL AND PREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER\r\nWATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. BY 96\r\nHOURS...ISABEL IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTH OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS AND UNDER 15-25 KT 200 MB FLOW. THIS WOULD TEND\r\nTO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS\r\nBEEN INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE\r\nWARM GULFSTREAM OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 24.1N  67.4W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 24.7N  68.9W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 25.7N  70.2W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 26.7N  71.3W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 28.0N  72.2W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 31.2N  74.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 36.5N  76.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 43.5N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":36,"Date":"2003-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA CONFIRMED 135-KNOT SURFACE WINDS AT 18Z\r\nAND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER MISSION AT 06Z...SO THE INITIAL OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LEFT AT 135 KNOTS.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED TODAY BUT A LARGE WELL-DEFINED IMPRESSIVE EYE\r\nPERSISTS AS WELL AS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD SYMMETRY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...IT HAS REMAINED THE SAME FOR OVER 24\r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CLOSELY CLUSTERED AND SHOWING A LANDFALL IN JUST\r\nUNDER 96 HOURS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THE SCENARIO CONSISTS\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND TWO SHORT WAVES\r\nMOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nFIRST TROUGH WILL SLOW ISABELS FORWARD SPEED WHILE IT TURNS\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  THE SECOND\r\nTROUGH WILL CAUSE AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH\r\nISABEL MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY\r\nDAY 5.\r\n\r\nONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS...SO ISABEL IS\r\nLIKELY TO STILL BE QUITE DANGEROUS AT LANDFALL.  SINCE THE TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST AT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN\r\nDIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A LANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID\r\nATLANTIC COAST.  ALSO OFFICIAL 4-DAY TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AVERAGE\r\nABOUT 275 MILES.  WE INTEND THAT THE ISABEL FORECASTS WILL BE MORE\r\nACCURATE...BUT INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSTATES SHOULD  CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 24.5N  68.3W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 25.2N  69.5W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 26.2N  70.6W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 27.6N  71.4W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 28.9N  72.1W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 32.8N  74.2W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 38.3N  76.8W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 45.5N  80.0W    35 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":37,"Date":"2003-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n\r\nISABEL IS SHOWING STRUCTURAL MIXED SIGNALS THIS EVENING.  ON ONE\r\nSIDE...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED AND\r\nTHAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYE HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  ON THE OTHER...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 940 MB AND THAT\r\nTHE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 138 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS ALSO\r\nREPORTED WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT...AS ARE THE LATEST OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 130 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...AND THE STORM COULD BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THIS.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE HAS BEEN A WOBBLE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...THE SAME DIRECTION AS EARLIER.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nEXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF\r\nISABEL...AND WESTERLY FLOW WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.  ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HR...THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BROAD TROUGHING TO THE WEST.  ALL\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING\r\nISABEL TO THE VICINITY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 72-96 HR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  SINCE THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST\r\nAT A SMALL ANGLE...A SMALL CHANGE IN DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN A\r\nLANDFALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  INTERESTS\r\nFROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISABEL.\r\n\r\nISABEL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN A WARM-WATER LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36 HR...AND THUS FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL\r\nCONTRACTION CYCLES ARE LIKELY.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE MOVING INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES...AND THUS MAY EXPERIENCE\r\nSOME SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS 30-40 KT OF SHEAR...AND IF\r\nTHAT VERIFIES ISABEL COULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT ON THIS...SO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COASTAL SHELF WATER ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC\r\nCOAST IS RATHER COLD...AND ANY TRACK EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS THAT\r\nWOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE OVER THAT WATER WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE MORE\r\nWEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 24.8N  69.0W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.5N  70.1W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.5N  71.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 27.9N  71.9W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 29.2N  72.6W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 33.5N  75.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 40.0N  78.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 48.5N  80.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":38,"Date":"2003-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE CONTINUES\r\nTO BREAK DOWN...WITH A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. \r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRAGMENTED...AND THE\r\nOVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS NOW MORE BANDED THAN IT WAS OVER\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 115 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 120 KT\r\nAND ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AT\r\n18Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/7...SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  WITH THE\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE OFF THE CAROLINAS MOVING OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...THE STEERING CURRENTS SURROUNDING ISABEL ARE BEGINNING\r\nTO WEAKEN AS SOME RIDGING TEMPORARILY BUILDS IN NORTHWEST...AHEAD\r\nOF...THE HURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW MOTION TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BY 48 HOURS OR SO...AN\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL HELP ACCELERATE ISABEL\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nANCHORED NEAR 35N AND 60 W.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE OTHER MODELS.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL...\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...GFS MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME RESTRICTION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT...THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY BE MORE A RESULT OF\r\nLESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS.  THERE ARE WESTERLIES\r\nTO THE NORTH OF ISABEL...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.    THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM WATER\r\nUNDER THE HURRICANE UNTIL COOLER SHELF WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED RIGHT\r\nALONG THE COASTLINE.  ONE KEY TO THE ULTIMATE LANDFALL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD ENHANCE\r\nTHE OUTFLOW AND REDUCE THE SHEAR PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF IT DIGS AS\r\nSHARPLY AS FORECAST BY THE GFS.  WITH THIS IN MIND...ISABEL COULD\r\nSTILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n\r\n FORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 25.2N  69.4W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.8N  70.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 27.0N  71.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 28.2N  72.0W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 30.0N  73.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 34.5N  75.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 40.0N  78.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 49.5N  80.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":39,"Date":"2003-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THAT ISABEL HAS\r\nWEAKENED TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS.  PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 120\r\nKT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 110 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY...ALTHOUGH DROPSONDES IN THE EYEWALL SUGGEST THE WINDS\r\nMIGHT BE EVEN A LITTLE BIT LESS.  THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF\r\nSHEAR AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN STILL LOOKS STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION LOOKS A LITTLE DRY.  ALTHOUGH ISABEL HAS BEEN\r\nWEAKENING...AND MAY WEAKEN FURTHER...THERE IS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nTHAT SUGGESTS THAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN...WITH\r\nENHANCED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...MAY DEVELOP IN THE LAST 24 HOURS\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN\r\nPREDICTING SUCH PATTERNS...IN PARTICULAR THEY OFTEN OVER-DEVELOP\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES OVER TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SIMPLY CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...AND\r\nANTICIPATES A MAJOR HURRICANE...CATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER...AT\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/7...OR NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EVEN MORE SO THAN THIS MORNING AS\r\nTHE 12Z GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN ITS EARLIER RUN. THERE HAS BEEN\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  HOWEVER...SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO MAY\r\nBE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BEFORE ISABEL TURNS BACK TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES\r\nMOVES OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AGAIN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. \r\nBY 48 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM\r\nTHE WEST WILL HELP ACCELERATE ISABEL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 35N AND 60 W. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 25.6N  70.0W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 26.3N  70.8W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 27.5N  71.6W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 29.0N  72.3W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 30.8N  73.2W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 35.5N  76.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 42.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 52.0N  80.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":40,"Date":"2003-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE ON THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nISABEL SINCE THE 18Z RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATED 110\r\nKNOTS...SO THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED 5 KNOTS TO\r\n105 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED BETWEEN 48 AND 60 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES THE\r\nGFS VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nUNDERSTAND WHY THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT CALL FOR MORE WEAKENING BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  PERHAPS IT IS THE PATH OVER THE GULFSTREAM THAT WILL\r\nKEEP THE WIND SPEED UP.  ANYWAY THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED\r\nONLY 5 MORE KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL TO 100 KNOTS...STILL A CATEGORY\r\nTHREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON SCALE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND SCENARIO IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/06.  THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT LESS THAN 10\r\nKNOTS FORWARD SPEED FOR 48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHILE BEING BYPASSED BY A\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE THE\r\nTRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE CENTER INLAND IN 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 26.1N  70.2W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 26.9N  70.8W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 28.4N  71.7W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 29.8N  72.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 31.5N  73.7W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 37.2N  77.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 44.5N  79.5W    40 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 54.0N  78.5W    30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":41,"Date":"2003-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\n6-12 HR.  CENTER FIXES FROM IR IMAGERY ARE 20-25 NM EAST OF THE\r\nFIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA...SUGGESTING WESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS SPREAD OUT...WITH AN\r\nINNER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND OF 40 NM AND SEVERAL MAXIMA PRESENT\r\nOUTSIDE OF THAT.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 101\r\nKT...AND THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE REDUCED TO 100 KT...AND THIS IS LIKELY GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/6.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS REASONABLY\r\nSTRAIGHT FORWARD.  ISABEL IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  A BROAD AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD SOMEWHAT WESTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE\r\nLIFTS OUT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ISABEL TO MOVE IN A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS\r\nIT MERGES WITH THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.  ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS MOSTLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE\r\nFORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 60\r\nHR...IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A 10 DEGREE CHANGE TO THE RIGHT FOR ISABEL\r\nTO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AS SHOWN IN THE CANADIAN\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR. \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS ALL FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nNEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  WHILE THIS TROUGH MAY NOT REDUCE THE SHEAR...IT COULD\r\nPROVIDE A BETTER OUTFLOW PATTERN AND DYNAMICAL FORCING TO SUSTAIN\r\nOR STRENGTHEN THE STORM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ISABEL'S BROAD WIND\r\nFIELD SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM MIGHT BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THUS MIGHT MOVE ASHORE BEFORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THERE ARE THREE POSSIBLE\r\nSCENARIOS.  FIRST...CONTINUED WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR AS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.  SECOND...CONTINUED SHORT-TERM WEAKENING FOLLWED\r\nBY RE-INTENSIFICATION AS ISABEL APPROACHES THE COAST.  THIRD...A\r\nRELATIVELY STEADY-STATE HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL GO WITH THE THIRD SCENARIO AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 26.6N  70.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 27.6N  71.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 29.0N  72.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 30.7N  73.2W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 33.0N  74.7W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 38.0N  78.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 45.5N  79.0W    40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 55.0N  76.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":42,"Date":"2003-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nCONTINUES TO SLOWLY RISE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED ON A\r\nRADAR IMAGE TRANSMITTED FROM THE AIRCRAFT.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nWERE 105 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT FROM 7000 FT...WHICH WOULD\r\nSUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 90 KT.  THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY\r\nTWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...\r\nAND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nRECENT IMAGES...HOWEVER...SHOW AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST. ISABEL IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEAST OF THE HURRICANE. A BROAD AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT...\r\nWHICH SHOULD CAUSE ISABEL TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY\r\nDIRECTION THROUGH 72 HR. \r\n\r\nWITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL CORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING\r\nSEEMS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ISABEL AS A\r\nRESULT OF A DIGGING AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT\r\nSHOULD INTERACT WITH THE HURRICANE IN THE 24 HOURS PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL.  FOR THIS REASON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME\r\nRESTRENGTHENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nCOULD BECOME SO DISRUPTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THAT ISABEL WOULD\r\nBE UNABLE TO RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 27.4N  71.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 28.4N  71.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 29.9N  72.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 31.7N  73.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 33.8N  75.6W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 39.0N  79.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 47.0N  78.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 54.0N  71.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":43,"Date":"2003-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE WEAKENING TREND HAS ENDED...AT LEAST FOR\r\nTHE TIME BEING.  THE MOST RECENT PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY\r\nTHE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT WAS 111 KT OVER A VERY SMALL AREA IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THE CREW INDICATED AN IMPROVED RADAR\r\nPRESENTATION.  BEFORE INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WOULD\r\nLIKE TO MAKE SURE THESE WINDS ARE REPRESENTATIVE.  WHILE THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING TODAY...THE CORE CONVECTION IS\r\nSTILL RATHER THIN.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 330/7.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. ISABEL IS ON THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  A BROAD AREA OF\r\nWESTERLY FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH\r\nA SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD AS\r\nTHE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT.  THIS COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT HEADING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nA MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN AS ISABEL\r\nAPPROACHES THE COAST.  WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W.  THE MODELS DIG\r\nTHIS SHORT WAVE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ISABEL...CREATING AN OUTFLOW\r\nCHANNEL OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HURRICANE.  THE EXPLICIT\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...NOW SHOW SOME\r\nREINTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM THE STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ONBOARD THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT.\r\n \r\nNOTE...THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF\r\n958 MB.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 27.8N  71.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 28.6N  71.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 30.5N  73.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 32.7N  74.6W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 35.0N  76.7W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 41.5N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 50.0N  76.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":44,"Date":"2003-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n \r\nRECENT RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 111 AND 109 KNOTS ARE THE BASIS\r\nFOR INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 95 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OR SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT THE APPROACH OF THE\r\nNEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAVING A FAVORABLE EFFECT ON INTENSIFICATION\r\n...PERHAPS FROM BAROCLINIC EFFECTS OR FROM AN IMPROVED OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN.  IN ANY CASE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nWIND SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING IS\r\nCHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ISABEL IS ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD\r\nFOR 48 HOURS UNTIL THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS\r\nCOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT\r\nHEADING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 28.5N  71.7W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 29.7N  72.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 31.7N  73.7W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 34.0N  75.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 36.6N  77.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  78.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 54.0N  73.5W    30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 59.0N  56.0W    30 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":45,"Date":"2003-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ISABEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nSTRENGTH OR ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HR.  THE LATEST CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 958 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 700\r\nMB WINDS THUS FAR ARE 103 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT IS REPORTING A 25-NM\r\nWIDE EYE SIMILAR TO A FEATURE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES ARE SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE FIXES...AND THERE\r\nIS NO WIND MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPARENT EYEWALL.  INDEED...\r\nTHE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS 50-70 NM.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN\r\n95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/8.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ISABEL SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-\r\nLAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN\r\nNORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THIS GUIDANCE.  AFTER LANDFALL...ISABEL SHOULD TRACK\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR PERHAPS NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...THEN\r\nRECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN FRONT OF THE STRONG DEEP-\r\nLAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHE NEAR-UNANIMOUS GUIDANCE MAKES THIS A HIGH CONFIDENCE\r\nFORECAST...BUT THOSE AWAY FROM THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD NOT LET\r\nDOWN THEIR GUARD JUST IN CASE THE GUIDANCE PROVES TO BE UNANIMOUSLY\r\nWRONG.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VERY PROBLEMATIC.  ISABEL CURRENTLY\r\nLACKS A TIGHT CENTRAL CORE AND STRONG CONVECTION...AND EVEN IN\r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WOULD LIKELY BE SLOW TO INTENSIFY.  VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR STILL SEEM TO BE AFFECTING THE\r\nSYSTEM...SO ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT\r\nFOR AT LEAST 12 HR UNTIL THE NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND IMPROVES THE\r\nOUTFLOW.  EVEN THEN...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL\r\nDECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  AN ADDITIONAL COMPLICATION\r\nIS A SURFACE FRONT BETWEEN ISABEL AND THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...\r\nWITH OBSERVATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA OF COOL AIR WITH\r\nDEWPOINTS BELOW 20C.  INGESTING THAT AIR WOULD LIKELY INHIBIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN 95 KT UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL BASED MAINLY ON THE PREMISE THAT THE LARGE AND SPRAWLING\r\nVORTEX WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nEITHER FAVORABLE OR UNFAVORABLE.  HOWEVER...OTHER POSSIBLE\r\nSCENARIOS INCLUDE STRENGTHENING DUE TO FORCING FROM THE TROUGH...\r\nAND WEAKENING DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 29.4N  72.2W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 30.8N  73.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 33.0N  74.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 35.2N  76.4W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 38.2N  78.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 46.5N  78.5W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 57.5N  69.5W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":46,"Date":"2003-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BETWEEN 100 AND 105\r\nKT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 95\r\nKT...DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LESS THAN TYPICAL\r\nAMOUNT OF THIS WIND IS MAKING IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE LAYER.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE\r\nOF ISABEL.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE SURFACE WINDS ARE CLOSER TO 85\r\nKT.  I HAVE KEPT THE ADVISORY WINDS AT 95 KT FOR NOW...SINCE ANY\r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTION WOULD MORE EFFECTIVELY TRANSPORT THE\r\nMOMENTUM ALOFT DOWNWARD...BUT IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT STRENGTHEN\r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  EITHER\r\nWAY ISABEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 335/8.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED ITS LANDFALL POINT A FEW MILES TO THE WEST.  THE GFDL\r\nADJUSTMENT WAS THE LARGEST...ABOUT 30 MILES...AND IT IS RATHER\r\nAMAZING THAT THIS IS ABOUT THE BIGGEST ADJUSTMENT WE HAVE SEEN OVER\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.    \r\n\r\nWHILE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS AND CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT\r\nTHE ABILITY OF ISABEL TO RESPOND TO THE UPPER FORCING.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS TEND TO BE LESS CERTAIN THAN TRACK FORECASTS...\r\nAND AN INTENSITY FORECAST ERROR OF ONE SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY...UP\r\nOR DOWN...WOULD BE ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 30.0N  72.6W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 31.4N  73.5W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 33.6N  75.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 36.0N  77.3W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 39.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 49.0N  77.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 58.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":47,"Date":"2003-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003\r\n \r\nIF FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS WERE ALL WE HAD...ISABEL WOULD BE A\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS\r\nAFTERNOON FOUND A NUMBER OF SPOTS OF WINDS OF 110-120 KT.  THIS\r\nWOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF 100-105 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...NUMEROUS DROPSONDE PROFILES IN THE HIGH WIND REGIONS OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION SHOW A CONSISTENT AND UNUSUALLY STEEP FALL-OFF OF\r\nWIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MEAGER\r\nCONVECTION IN THE HURRICANE CORE.  BASED ON THESE PROFILES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME FAVORABLE...AS WAS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND\r\nIN FACT THE CIRCULATION ALOFT IS STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERMODYANAMIC FACTORS ARE LIMITING THE ABILITY OF ISABEL TO\r\nCOMPLETELY RESPOND TO THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT SHOULD THERE BE A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nINCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ISABEL COULD QUICKLY REACH CATEGORY\r\nTHREE STATUS.  \r\n\r\nONCE AGAIN...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST OR REASONING.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN...BUT THE\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n330/12 AS ISABEL BEGINS A MODEST ACCELERATION TOWARD THE COAST. \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS STILL EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nISABEL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION...INCLUDING A LARGE EXTENT OF\r\nDAMAGING WINDS.  THEREFORE...IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT NOT TO\r\nFOCUS ON THE PRECISE LANDFALL LOCATION...SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS\r\nWILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE LANDFALL POINT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 31.1N  73.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 32.7N  74.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 35.0N  76.6W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 37.6N  78.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 41.5N  79.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 52.5N  76.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":48,"Date":"2003-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nMINIMAL AT THIS TIME. IN FACT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 75 TO 80 KNOTS.\r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE ABOUT 100 KNOTS SO FAR ON THIS MISSION...WITH THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE UNCHANGED.  ASSUMING THAT THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS NOT\r\nSAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nGENEROUSLY AT 90 KNOTS.  IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND HIGHER WINDS\r\nSOON...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO DECREASE THE INTENSITY IN THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY. ON THE OTHER HAND...SINCE THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS STILL\r\nA CHANCE THAT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT ISABEL IS MOVING \r\nABOUT 330 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR\r\nA GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE HIGH\r\nBUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS MOTION WOULD\r\nBRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA\r\nDURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SINCE THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ARE HIGHLY CLUSTERED\r\nWITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES NEAR LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON A PRECISE LANDFALL POINT SINCE ISABEL IS A LARGE HURRICANE\r\nWITH DAMAGING WINDS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nONCE ISABEL MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nAND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 31.9N  73.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 33.7N  75.6W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 36.5N  77.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 39.5N  78.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  77.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 57.0N  73.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":49,"Date":"2003-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003\r\n\r\nWSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM MOREHEAD CITY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A\r\nCLASSIC CONCENTRIC EYEWALL FORMATION...WITH A POORLY-DEFINED RING\r\nOF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A STRONGER RING 40-50 NM OUT.\r\nEARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER RING...AND THAT THERE IS NO WIND MAXIMUM\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER RING.  THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWED A\r\nPRESSURE OF 957 MB...AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THE\r\nMISSION WERE 109 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT.\r\n \r\nISABEL IS MOVING 325-330 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KT.  A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HR BETWEEN THE\r\nDEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nAFTER THAT...ISABEL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...ISABEL SHOULD WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nA NEW AIRCRAFT SHOULD BE ARRIVING AT THE CENTER SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 33.1N  74.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 35.0N  76.4W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 37.9N  78.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 41.4N  78.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 47.0N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 59.5N  72.5W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":50,"Date":"2003-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE EYEWALL OF ISABEL IS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA OUTER BANKS.  ALTHOUGH AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT...SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nSUBSTATIALLY LOWER...ABOUT 85 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED PRIOR TO THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL\r\nWEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE\r\nFORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED\r\nTERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON\r\nHIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER STRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN\r\nAREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE PATH OF ISABEL.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  ISABEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 34.4N  75.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 36.5N  77.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 39.7N  78.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 44.5N  78.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL \r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 50.5N  77.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isabel","Adv":51,"Date":"2003-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL MADE LANDFALL ON THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA NEAR DRUM\r\nINLET...BETWEEN CAPE LOOKOUT AND OCRACOKE ISLAND...NEAR 17Z THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH WINDS ESTIMATED NEAR 85 KT.  A GPS DROPSONDE\r\nREPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 83 KT ABOUT AN HOUR BEFORE LANDFALL A FEW\r\nMILES FROM CAPE HATTERAS IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  THE STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON BOARD THE NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT AT 1707Z IN THE SAME AREA...AND\r\nANOTHER MEASUREMENT OF 82 KT WAS REPORTED ABOUT AN HOUR EARLIER. \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 118 KT. \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS WERE CONFIRMED BY GROUND-BASED DOPPLER\r\nRADARS.  A LARGE NUMBER OF DROPSONDES IN ISABEL INDICATE THAT\r\nSURFACE WINDS WERE AVERAGING ABOUT 70% OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL VALUES\r\nOVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND THIS ALSO YIELDS ABOUT 83 KT FOR A\r\nPEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nISABEL CONTINUES INLAND...AND WHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME SHARPENING\r\nUP OF THE EYEWALL AFTER LANDFALL...THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD BE\r\nDECREASING. GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE AND THE\r\nLARGE AND STRONG CIRCULATION ALOFT...THE FORECAST DECREASE OF WIND\r\nIS SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE\r\nSTRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FELT IN THE FORM OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND\r\nGUSTS WELL INLAND OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN VIRGINIA\r\nAND WESTERN MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER\r\nSTRUCTURES IN MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF\r\nTHE PATH OF ISABEL.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  ISABEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 36 HOURS AND BE ABSORBED\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 36.2N  77.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  78.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 43.5N  79.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 49.5N  79.6W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 55.5N  76.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isabel","Adv":52,"Date":"2003-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003\r\n \r\nRADAR...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT ISABEL IS\r\nRAPIDLY LOSING ITS INNER CORE AND THE CONVECTION IS WEAKENING.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KNOTS. A CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 2 DAYS OR LESS.  WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO\r\nDIMINISHED ALONG THE COAST BUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL SUPPORTS\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 20\r\nKNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nIS EXPECTED...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 37.7N  78.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 40.5N  79.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 46.5N  79.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 53.0N  79.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 58.5N  75.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isabel","Adv":53,"Date":"2003-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2003\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATION SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ISABEL HAS RISEN\r\nCONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED\r\nRECENTLY HAS BEEN ABOUT 991 MB IN THE STAUNTON VIRGINIA AREA.  THIS\r\nIS THE BASIS FOR THE 987 MB IN THE ADVISORY...AND EVEN THAT MIGHT\r\nBE A STRETCH.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST...\r\nCHESAPEAKE BAY...AND DELAWARE BAY INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45\r\nKT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  ISABEL SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT STARTS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nOVER THE NEXT 12-24 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE RADAR SIGNATURE HAS WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nHARD TO PIN DOWN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A RATHER UNCERTAIN\r\n335/18.  ISABEL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...WITH\r\nA GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION PERSISTING UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 39.2N  78.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 42.8N  79.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 49.4N  79.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 56.0N  77.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 61.1N  75.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isabel","Adv":54,"Date":"2003-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2003\r\n \r\nISABEL IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THERE IS NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION REMAINING IN THE CIRCULATION...AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE\r\nWINDS ARE LOCATED OVER 200 NM FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE\r\nWATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES...DELAWARE BAY...AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. \r\nTHEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ISABEL.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH\r\nTHE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THERE\r\nWILL BE SOME EXTRATROPICAL RESTRENGTHENING AS ISABEL INTERACTS WITH\r\nTHE APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE\r\nNORTHERN PLAINS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED...\r\nSIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING REMAINS.  PLEASE CONSULT COASTAL\r\nFLOOD WARNINGS AND OTHER STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICES\r\nCONCERNING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.  MARINE INTERESTS\r\nSHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 42.0N  80.7W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 47.0N  80.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 54.0N  79.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 60.0N  77.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFOURTEEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03. TD-14 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER\r\n...GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SO FAR SOUTH...THIS SCENARIO MAY BE\r\nSLOW IN DEVELOPING OR NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL. RIGHT NOW...THE COURSE\r\nOF LEAST REGRET IS TO STAY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DRY AIR NOTED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOTED INTRUDING FROM THE EAST. ALSO...THIS\r\nSYSTEM HAS HAD PROBLEMS MAINTAINING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT\r\nCONSERVATIVE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\n...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 11.8N  22.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 11.9N  22.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 12.4N  24.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 13.3N  25.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 14.4N  27.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N  31.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N  34.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N  36.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON. IN FACT...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DECREASED\r\nAND THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DISAPPEARED. HOWEVER...EARLIER\r\nSEAWINDS AND QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT A GOOD\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO EXISTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB....AND CONTINUITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. TD-14 IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN GRADUALLY\r\nTURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HOWEVER\r\n...GIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS FAIRLY FAR TO THE SOUTH...THIS\r\nSCENARIO MAY BE SLOW IN DEVELOPING AND MAY NOT EVEN OCCUR AT ALL.\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY 96-120 HOURS THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD BEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS SOME\r\nINNER-CORE CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP\r\nLATER TONIGHT...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MAY\r\nINHIBIT DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION UNTIL THE CYCLONE PULLS\r\nFARTHER WEST AWAY FROM THE DRY SOURCE REGION OF WESTERN AFRICA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM UP TO 67 KT IN 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 12.0N  22.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 12.5N  24.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.3N  25.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 14.6N  26.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N  28.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N  31.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 23.0N  34.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 27.0N  36.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS VERY DISORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND IS NOT EVEN\r\nPRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO WARRANT A DVORAK DATA T NUMBER. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED REGION WEST OF THE POORLY\r\nDEFINED CENTER. WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A MID-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAPPROXIMATELY ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WE HAVE RELOCATED\r\nTHE SYSTEM BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND SSMI OVERPASSES THAT STRONGLY\r\nSUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND IS\r\nPROBABLY STILL GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED FROM THE MICROWAVE DATA IS SLOW\r\nWESTWARD...270/4. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED DUE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...DIGS\r\nFURTHER SOUTH. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nA TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT THE\r\nNOGAPS WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND\r\nUKMET...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR HAS IMPINGED SO\r\nEXTENSIVELY INTO THE DEPRESSION...THAT INTENSIFICATION...IF\r\nANY...WILL LIKELY BE SLOW.  FURTHER...SINCE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nWILL TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER SUB 27C WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS...ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO OCCUR BEFORE THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 11.2N  23.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 11.8N  24.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 13.0N  25.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 14.5N  26.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.0N  27.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 20.0N  30.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 24.0N  33.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/04.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT MOVING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A\r\nLITTLE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SMALL CONVECTIVE BURST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nBUT OTHERWISE THE CLOUD STRUCTURE REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 KNOTS...SAME AS LAST ADVISORY.\r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING.  IN CONTRAST THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO HURRICANE FORCE IN 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINLY BECAUSE\r\nOF LACK OF ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CAPE\r\nVERDE ISLANDS AND...IF THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES...TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS COULD AFFECT THESE ISLANDS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 11.4N  23.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 12.1N  24.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 13.7N  25.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N  26.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N  28.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 21.5N  31.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N  34.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND. BECAUSE IT LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON A SHIP REPORT\r\nLOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE OCEAN IS WARM\r\nAND THE SHEAR IS LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS OF\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 13.4N  24.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N  25.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N  26.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.2N  27.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N  29.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N  32.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.0N  34.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  36.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nILL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED.  THUS THE MAXIMUM WIND\r\nESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH....WHICH HAS BEEN CREATING\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE PATTERN...WITH MORE UPPER-AIR\r\nRIDGING OVER THE SYSTEM...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES JUST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING...AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGES.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES ARE AS MUCH AS 125 N MI APART...SO THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 330/11 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...IS FORECAST\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND GFS TRACKS.  THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL WEAKENS THE CYCLONE...AND TAKES IT FARTHER TO THE WEST\r\nTHAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE AREAS OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY\r\nPRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 14.1N  25.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 15.9N  26.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  27.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N  28.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N  30.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 25.0N  32.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 28.0N  34.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  35.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING VERY FEW... IF ANY...\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CONVECTION HAS DECREASED\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS\r\nCANNOT BE DERIVED. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS ADVECTING A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION\r\nDOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTH.  RECENT SSMI OVERPASSES SHOW NO INDICATION\r\nOF A CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KNOT\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY.\r\n \r\nINFRARED FIXES ARE WIDELY DISTRIBUTED ABOUT AN ELONGATED CLOUD\r\nSYSTEM CENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN\r\n360/10.  DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND\r\nNOGAPS LOSE THE CIRCULATION WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH\r\nIT IS NOT CERTAIN IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION EVEN EXISTS NOW.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nDISORGANIZATION AND THE SUB-26C SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND\r\nSTRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT\r\nAND EARLY WEDNESDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 15.1N  25.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N  25.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 19.7N  26.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 22.8N  27.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2003\r\n \r\nIR METEOSAT IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY\r\nORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS TO BE AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.\r\nSURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AT THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KNOT DEPRESSION BASED PRIMARILY ON\r\nCONTINUITY UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE AND WE CAN DECIDE\r\nIF THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A DEPRESSION. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION OR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION IN DAY OR\r\nTWO.\r\n\r\nISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS\r\nAND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 16.0N  25.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N  25.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N  26.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 22.5N  27.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN IS\r\nBECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  THE POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nNOW ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE NEAREST CONVECTION...AND THE CIRCULATION\r\nIS BECOMING PART OF AN BROAD TROUGH.  QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW WINDS OF\r\nABOUT 20 KT...WHILE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAT\r\n15 KT AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nSAB AND AFWA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A LIKELY GENEROUS 25\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nBASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY A\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST...THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OR WEAKEN TO A BROAD LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/8...AND A\r\nNORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION\r\nIS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS\r\nAND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 16.3N  25.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.7N  25.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N  26.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN NO\r\nLONGER HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  INDEED...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...THE SYSTEM HAS A DECIDEDLY NON-TROPICAL\r\nAPPEARANCE.  THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12-24 HR UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF CONVECTION COULD STILL\r\nPRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 17.3N  25.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 18.8N  25.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 25 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER A LONG AND DIFFICULT DEBATE TO DETERMINE THE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL....THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nSOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS BEING DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIFTEEN.  THERE ARE NO CLEAR CUT SIGNALS AND WE COULD HAVE GONE\r\nTROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL AT THIS TIME.  THE CYCLONE IS STILL\r\nSOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE BUT AT THE SAME TIME...IT HAS\r\nENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LASTEST AMSU\r\nDATA SHOW A WEAK WARM CORE AT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS ON ITS WAY TO BECOME MORE TROPICAL. SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOL WATERS\r\nAND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\nHOWEVER...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL FORCE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE GFS.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 29.5N  61.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 30.5N  61.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  61.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 33.5N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 35.0N  62.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 40.0N  63.2W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 46.0N  62.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juan","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS...BASED ON THE LATEST PASS OF THE\r\nADIOS SCATTEROMETER. IN ADDITION A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER\r\nREPORTED 996.6 MB AT 1800 UTC. THE OCEAN IS STILL WARM AND THE\r\nSHEAR HAS RELAXED A BIT. THEREFORE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER WAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...A\r\nDEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE WILL FORCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nFOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON A\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS VARY IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 30.9N  61.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 32.0N  62.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  62.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  63.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 37.0N  63.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 42.0N  63.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 48.0N  60.8W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juan","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JUAN MAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL...\r\nAS THE STORM IS TANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. \r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HR...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL\r\nFOR A QUASI-TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT.  THE BEST\r\nEVIDENCE OF THE TROPICAL NATURE OF JUAN IS REPORTS FROM DRIFTING\r\nBUOY 41537...WHICH INCLUDED A PRESSURE OF 992.6 MB AT 20Z.  THIS\r\nINDICATES THAT JUAN HAS THE TIGHT INNER CORE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nRIGHT NOW...JUAN IS SIMILAR TO KAREN IN 2001...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT\r\nAS STRONG OR AS BAROCLINIC IN ORIGIN AS KAREN WAS.  BASED ON THE\r\nBUOY DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 345/5...AND EVEN THAT MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE TOO FAST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JUAN IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BLOCKING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND BETWEEN DEEP TROUGHS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH FOR JUAN TO\r\nMOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY\r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE\r\nUKMET AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL AS\r\nWELL...WITH THE FORECAST BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET IS A\r\nMAJOR OUTLIER...CALLING FOR A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT FOR THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  JUAN IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE AFFECTED BY ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGHS DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  THESE WILL LIKELY CAUSE SHEAR...AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THEY COULD ALSO CAUSE\r\nDYNAMICAL FORCING OR UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT COULD SUSTAIN THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nFOR 24-36 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENTLY FORECAST SHEAR SHOULD MAKE\r\nIT DIFFICULT FOR ONE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...ANMD THE\r\nFORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR THAT AT THIS TIME.  JUAN SHOULD LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER 72 HR AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH BY 120 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 31.1N  61.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 32.1N  62.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 33.7N  62.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 35.6N  63.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 37.6N  63.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 42.5N  64.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 49.0N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juan","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER COMING OUT OF THE GOES-12 SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD...NEW\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT JUAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS\r\nALSO STARTED MOVING NORTHWARD AGAIN. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS\r\nAPPARENT IN THE MID-CLOUDS OF THE PRE-ECLIPSE IMAGERY...BUT NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WAS WITHIN 100 NMI OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE EYE\r\nFEATURE IS NOW OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-70C...THAT HAVE SURROUNDED MORE THAN 50 PERCENT OF THE INNER CORE\r\nCIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS\r\nT2.5...OR 35 KT...I HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY\r\nBASED ON THIS NEW INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE BANDING AND RECENT AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 990-992 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS GOOD CONVERGENCE ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING JUAN NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AS A SERIES OF NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS UNDERCUT\r\nTHE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. BY 96 HOURS OR SO...JUAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION AND STARTING TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AND\r\nEVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BY 96 HOURS\r\nWITH NOGAPS TAKING JUAN THE FARTHEST TO THE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nIT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTION TO WRAP ALL THE AROUND THE\r\nINNER-CORE OF JUAN AND PRODUCE AN EYE. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE\r\nINTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...BUT NIT AS HIGH AS THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL INTENSITY MODELS WHICH BRING JUAN UP TO 75 KT AND 83 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...IN 36 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT BY 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS THE PRIMARY\r\nREASON FOR REMAINING BELOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 31.5N  61.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 32.5N  62.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 34.3N  62.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 36.3N  63.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 38.4N  63.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 46.0N  63.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 50.5N  60.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT JUAN HAS DEVELOPED AN\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE BUT THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE IS NOT\r\nVERY DEEP. IN GENERAL...THIS PATTERN CORRESPONDS TO AN INTENSITY OF\r\n65 KNOTS. LASTEST AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA/NESDIS INDICATE A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 985 MB AND 66-KNOT WINDS AND THE\r\nLATEST AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE IS 986 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN\r\nADJUSTED TO 65 KNOTS MAKING JUAN A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nINTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSLIGHT STRENGHTENING BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOL WATERS AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED\r\nSTATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL MOVE JUAN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE\r\nSYSTEM OVER EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAS USUAL...THE MOST UNCERTAIN PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS TO\r\nDETERMINE IF JUAN WILL CROSS NOVA SCOTIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR\r\nIN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL. THE LATTER IS THE MOST LIKELY\r\nSCENARIO. HOWEVER...I WOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 32.2N  62.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 33.7N  62.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 35.5N  63.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 37.5N  63.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 40.0N  64.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 50.0N  61.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED PRIMARILY IN A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN\r\nINTERMETTENT. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOL\r\nWATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THE GFDL\r\nMAKES JUAN A 92-KNOT HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND SHIPS SHOWS\r\nADDITIONAL STRAIGHTENING. AS USUAL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF JUAN WILL\r\nCROSS NOVA SCOTIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR IN TRANSITION TO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL. THE LATTER CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.\r\nHOWEVER...I WOULD BE PREPARED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nPATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST KEEPING JUAN ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THE SYSTEM CROSSING\r\nNOVA SCOTIA BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 33.0N  62.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 34.3N  62.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 36.5N  63.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 39.5N  63.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 42.5N  63.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 54.0N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n\r\nJUAN HAS SHOWED AN EYE OR WARM SPOT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND\r\nIS GENERATING CONVECTION AS COLD AS -70C IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND POOR OR RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES IMPINGE ON THE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 77 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...360/7.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES SHOULD STEER JUAN ON A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION THROUGH 48 HR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS JUAN GETS\r\nABSORBED INTO THE TROUGH.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH\r\nCOAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 48 HR.\r\n \r\nALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nAFFECTING JUAN TO WEAKEN...LEAVING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE THROUGH AN\r\nAREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR THROUGH 36 HR.  SHOULD THIS\r\nVERIFY...JUAN COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE\r\nIT REACHES THE COLD WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.  HOWEVER...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MODELS MIGHT BE A LITTLE TOO FAST\r\nIN WEAKENING THE SHEAR...AS A STRONG BAND OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nTO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF JUAN.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SCENARIO THAT THE CONDITIONS WILL BE LESS\r\nFAVORABLE THAN SHOWN IN THE MODELS BUT MORE FAVORABLE THAN\r\nCURRENTLY SEEN IN THE IMAGERY...AND THUS CALL FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  JUAN SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF\r\nTHE GULF STREAM...AND IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 33.7N  61.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 35.1N  62.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 37.2N  62.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 40.1N  63.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 44.8N  62.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 57.1N  58.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n \r\nJUAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A \r\nDISTINCT 15 NMI EYE APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER OF T4.4...OR 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11. JUAN APPEARS TO HAVE MADE A\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD JOG AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OR LOW\r\nHAS PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nTHIS FEATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT DURING THE PAST FEW HOUS...SO\r\nA RETURN TO A BASE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO RESUME SHORTLY. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE LOCATED NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF JUAN IS CONTINUING TO\r\nAMPLIFY NORTHWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL \r\nUNITED STATES CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD. THE RESULTANT\r\nINCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE JUAN\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ON THIS TRACK...JUAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY LATE SUNDAY OR\r\nEARLY MONDAY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE TIME LEFT FOR JUAN TO STRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nHURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS\r\nSO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS. JUAN SHOULD START TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES NORTH OF\r\nTHE GULF STREAM LOCATED ALONG 40N LATITUDE. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVELS\r\nARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 40 KT BY 60 HOURS...JUAN SHOULD ALREADY\r\nBE EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME...SO VERTICAL SHEAR MAY NOT PLAY A\r\nSIGNIFICANT ROLE IN THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JUAN COULD MAKE LANDFALL ON NOVA\r\nSCOTIA AS A HURRICANE...AND COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED LATER TODAY. THE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALREADY\r\nISSUED HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNINGS FOR THE NOVA SCOTIA MARINE\r\nAREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 34.9N  62.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 36.4N  62.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 38.9N  63.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 43.0N  63.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 48.7N  62.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 61.0N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nJUAN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT LOOKS AT ITS\r\nBEST SO FAR. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS RAGGED...IT IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. IN FACT...LATEST SSMI PASS SHOWS A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SUGGESTING THE THE EYEWALL IS CLOSED.  IN ADDITION...\r\nTHERE ARE WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR. GIVING\r\nTHE CURRRENT STRUCTURE AND PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE JUAN REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL THAT HAS BEEN CORRECTLY\r\nINTENSIFYING THE HURRICANE. JUAN IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDERGOING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJUAN HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR\r\n345 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD\r\nBECOME STRONGER AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH\r\nAMERICA. JUAN SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...JUAN SHOULD BE BRINGING HURRICANE\r\nCONDITIONS OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS GUNA AND\r\nGUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 35.3N  63.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 37.5N  63.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 40.5N  64.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 44.5N  64.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 52.0N  61.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL MODEL HAD THE CORRECT IDEA ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS OUTSTANDING AND\r\nSTILL IMPROVING. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nWELL-DEFINED AND ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE CORRESPONDING TO AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THIS INTENSIFICATION HAS COINCIDED WITH A\r\nDECREASE IN THE SHEAR AND WITH THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER WARM\r\nWATERS. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE EYE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE OF 81 DEGREES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ONLY SMALL\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY. JUAN SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE COOLER WATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA.\r\nJUAN SHOULD BE CROSSING NOVA SCOTIA WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.\r\n\r\nANOTHER SURPRISE TODAY WAS THAT JUAN MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR A WHILE TODAY. HOWEVER...\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS SHOULD BECOME STRONGER AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. JUAN SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...HURRICANE\r\nCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER NOVA SCOTIA LATE SUNDAY. TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY CONSISTENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE \r\nOVER NOVA SCOTIA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 35.9N  63.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 38.0N  64.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 42.5N  64.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 48.0N  63.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE WARMED SOME...BUT THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THERE WILL NOT\r\nBE AN APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR AS JUAN ACCELERATES TOWARD NOVA\r\nSCOTIA...THE SSTS COOL SIGNIFICANTLY AND SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE HURRICANE MAY HAVE CONSIDERABLE\r\nDIFFICULTY BRINGING STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWNWARD OVER THE COLD WATER\r\nAS WELL.  HOWEVER...JUAN SHOULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED ACCELERATION...THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.  THERE WAS A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUITE AT 00Z AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED\r\nLEFTWARD AS WELL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 36.8N  63.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.0N  64.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 44.3N  64.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 50.7N  64.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED...WITH SOME TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-75C...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE EYE HAS ALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AND THE 3-HR\r\nAVERAGE DVORAK OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER IS T4.9...OR 88 KT. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/10...EVEN THOUGH THE PAST 6-HR\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN 340/09. THE LAST FEW SATELLITE POSITIONS...ALONG\r\nWITH WATER VAPOR MOTIONS...SUGGEST THAT JUAN MAY BE FINALLY MAKING\r\nTHE TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CONFLICT BETWEEN\r\nTHE VARIOUS MODELS WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS BRINGING A\r\nSURFACE LOW CENTER WEST OF NOVA SCOTIA AND INTO EXTREME EASTERN\r\nMAINE...WHILE THE UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE JUAN OVER\r\nOR JUST WEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER...THE CANADIAN AND GFS\r\n850-500 MB VORTICITY CENTERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VERTICALLY\r\nSTACKED AND PASS JUST WEST OF HALIFAX IN ABOUT 18-21 HOURS...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nFORECASTING THE 500-200 MB MEAN WIND FLOW TO BE FROM A SOUTH TO\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP\r\nJUAN MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY DIRECTION. NOTE...AN 18-HR/00Z\r\nFORECAST POSITION WOULD PLACE JUAN NEAR 43.3N 64.2W AND 70-KT.\r\n\r\nSINCE JUAN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ACCELERATING LATER THIS MORNING AND\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL...THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE\r\nIN THE VERTICAL SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE WEAKENING TREND THAT IS\r\nFORECAST IS MAINLY DUE TO THE CYCLONE PASSING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS\r\nNORTH OF 40N LATITUDE.  ALSO...THE COOLER WATER MAY CAUSE THE\r\nBOUNDARY LAYER TO BECOME MORE STABLE...WHICH MAY NOT ALLOW ALL OF\r\nTHE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO COME DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...\r\nJUAN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nSINCE JUAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF HALIFAX \r\nBETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING AT ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...SOME STORM\r\nSURGE FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA\r\n...ESPECIALLY IN HARBORS AND INLETS IN AND AROUND HALIFAX.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 37.6N  64.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 40.7N  64.3W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 46.0N  63.9W    60 KT...INLAND BECOMING E.T.\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 53.8N  62.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO\r\n4.5...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT.  THE\r\nSEA SURFACE UNDER JUAN WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY WHEN IT MOVES NORTH\r\nOF 40N LATITUDE...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE JUAN TO WEAKEN. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO 20 TO 25\r\nKT AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...IT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO\r\nWEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THEREFORE JUAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE\r\nSOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA AS A HURRICANE.  ALSO...SINCE THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH\r\nTIDE...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE IN NOVA\r\nSCOTIA.\r\n\r\nJUAN HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT LEAST 17 KT. \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  \r\n\r\nJUAN SHOULD BEGIN TO MAKE THE EXTRATRAPICAL TRANSITION SOON AFTER\r\nLANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A POINT AT 36 H BUT GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MAY GET ABSORBED BY A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 39.4N  64.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 43.1N  64.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 49.7N  63.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL \r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 57.0N  61.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IT\r\nWAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE STILL APPARENT.  LATEST\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  JUAN IS\r\nLIKELY TO BEGIN FEELING THE EFFECT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS\r\nVERY SOON.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...THERE\r\nWILL WILL BE LITTLE TIME FOR WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THUS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT\r\nREACHES NOVA SCOTIA.  THE FAST FORWARD SPEED WILL SHOULD LIMIT\r\nRAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND 4 INCHES...100 MM.  SINCE LANDFALL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE AROUND THE TIME OF ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE...STORM\r\nSURGE FLOODING COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH\r\nCOAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.\r\n\r\nWIND AND RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY\r\nTHE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.  ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT\r\nTHE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS:\r\n\r\nWWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML\r\n\r\nJUAN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH WITH CURRENT MOTION AROUND\r\n360/20.  THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING REMAIN\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  JUAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE SWEPT\r\nNORTHWARD BY THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE 500 MB TROUGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS\r\nTROUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 41.2N  64.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 46.0N  64.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 53.0N  62.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Juan","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/28 AND THE MOTION FOR THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO 30 KNOTS.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nSCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES ACCELERATING JUAN NORTHWARD.  JUAN IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nQUICKLY ABSORBED BY THIS APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE 03Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 70 KT.  THE CENTER PASSED OVER\r\nCANADIAN DATA BUOY 44142 BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z. THE BUOY WIND WENT\r\nFROM 090/54 KT AT 23Z TO 210/37 KT AT 00Z AND THE PRESSURE WENT\r\nFROM 981 TO 975 MB.  THE BOUY WIND SPEED BETWEEN THE TWO HOURS\r\nCOULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 60 TO 70 KNOTS.  THE BUOY ALSO REPORTED\r\n40 FT WAVES.  OVER VERY COLD WATER...JUAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nQUICKLY WEAKEN...BUT WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AS THE\r\nCENTER REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA BY AROUND 03Z.\r\n \r\nWIND AND HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA\r\nSCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.\r\nINFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER CAN BE FOUND AT\r\nTHE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS:\r\n \r\nWWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 44.5N  63.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 49.0N  63.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 58.0N  60.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 65.0N  55.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juan","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JUAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003\r\n \r\nJUAN HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n010/35 AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY\r\nTILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. JUAN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED IN 24-36 HOURS BY AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.\r\n \r\nTHE 09Z INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IS DECREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON SURFACE\r\nOBS AND THE OCCLUDED APPEARANCE NOTED IN HALIFAX RADAR ANIMATIONS. \r\nTHE CENTER PASSED OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST WEST OF\r\nHALIFAX AT 29/03Z. THE HIGHEST WIND REPORT RECEIVED SO FAR WAS A\r\nSUSTAINED WIND OF 62 MPH AT 1204 AM AST...WITH A GUST TO 89 MPH AT\r\n1214 AM AST THIS MORNING...AT HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.\r\n \r\nWIND AND HEAVY RAIN WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NOVA\r\nSCOTIA AND PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER.\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM THE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE\r\nFOUND AT THE FOLLOWING INTERNET ADDRESS:\r\n \r\nWWW.ATL.EC.GC.CA/WEATHER/HURRICANE/INDEX_E.HTML\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY AND FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED ON\r\nJUAN SINCE THE CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 47.8N  63.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 53.5N  61.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 61.1N  56.3W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE THAT MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA A FEW DAYS AGO\r\nHAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS\r\nFORMATIVE STAGE AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 TO 100 N MI OF THE ADVISORY\r\nLOCATION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES ACROSS LOW LATITUDES. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE RESULTING IN EITHER WEAKENING OR A STEADY\r\nSTATE.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285\r\nDEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A RATHER LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BETWEN 40 AND 50 DEGREES WEST WILL PROBABLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE GFS IS THE MOST\r\nAGGRESSIVE AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AT 45\r\nDEGREES WEST. IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS AT LOWER LATITUDES...IT COULD\r\nCONTINUE WESTWARD A LITTLE LONGER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 11.7N  38.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 12.5N  40.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.8N  42.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N  50.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N  52.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  53.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 2017Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND A\r\n2106Z SSMI WERE USEFUL IN INTERPRETING THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...30 KT\r\nFROM AFWA. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR...\r\nPARTICULARLY OVER THE CENTER AND TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING THE\r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3\r\nDAYS BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGIN\r\nTO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF THE POORLY DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CONSOLIDATES FURTHER SOUTH...THE SHEAR\r\nMAY HAVE LESS OF AN INHIBITING INFLUENCE.\r\n\r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST OR 305/13. T.D. SIXTEEN SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS. AFTERWARDS...A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS SHOULD BEGIN. ALL LARGE SCALE\r\nMODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL...SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWEST EXTEND OF A MID LEVEL HIGH SITUATED WEST OF\r\nTHE AZORES BY DAY 3 WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. NOGAPS AND THE UKMET LOSE THE SYSTEM\r\nWITHIN THE WEAKNESS BEYOND THAT POINT MERGING WITH THE BAROCLINIC\r\nSYSTEM. THE GFS TURNS SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES AT 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO VIGOROUSLY INTERACT WITH\r\nA BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AROUND DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE BAMS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 12.6N  39.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N  41.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.1N  43.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.3N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.5N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 21.0N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 22.5N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN REMAINS DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nACTUALLY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE LOCATED\r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION IS INDICATING...AND THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE MAY BE MOVING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...I HAVE OPTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK SINCE FIXING A\r\nPOSITION IN NIGHTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY ON POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEMS\r\nIS DIFFICULT AT BEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED\r\nON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. THE LONG TERM TREND IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF TD-16 IS LOCATED ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN END OF THE ELONGATED BAND OF CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.\r\nTHE ENTIRE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED CENTER BECOMES APPARENT...\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK WILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THE RIGHTMOST GFS MODEL\r\nIMMEDIATELY TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE PAST AND CURRENT SATELLITE MOTION\r\nTRENDS. THE REST OF THE NHC GUIDANCE IS SLOWER AND QUITE DIVERGENT\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...WITH MOST STILL INDICATING\r\nRECURVATURE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND MEDIUM BAM CONSENSUS. IF TD-16\r\nDEVELOPS/REMAINS FARTHER SOUTH... THEN IT MAY NOT GET FAR ENOUGH\r\nNORTH TO GET PICKED UP BY THE LARGE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLCONE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OT REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...SO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN FORECAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH LESS...AND\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 13.0N  40.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 14.1N  41.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.4N  43.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N  45.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.6N  47.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 22.5N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n \r\nPOSITION FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE CENTERS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS PROGRESSIVELY MORE\r\nNORTHWARD FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES ALTOUGH THE CENTER LOCATION IS\r\nSTILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND AWFA REMAIN AT 30 KT. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nDEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW SUCH THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM FORCE LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/13.  GENERAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nTHUS FAR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MOVING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  UW CIMSS\r\nENVIRONMENTAL STEERING PRODUCTS ALSO CONCUR WITH THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION. IN THE MEANTIME THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS\r\nGUIDANCE OF GFS AND UKMET AND NOGAPS. THE LAST RUN OF THE GFDL WAS\r\nNOT USED IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE IT DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 12\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE INTENSITY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS IN THE\r\nNEAR TERM AND BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nSEEMS TO BE THE CASE.  WITHIN 72 HOURS...SHEAR VALUES ARE FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE BUT STILL SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/SISKO\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 15.9N  40.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.2N  42.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.9N  44.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.3N  46.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 21.7N  47.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 24.1N  49.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 25.8N  48.3W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 27.1N  46.8W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME ELONGATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND\r\nTHE PRIMARY CONVECTION IS CONFINED WITHIN A CURVED BAND TO THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE PRIMARY CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY\r\nEXPOSED WHICH BOOSTS THE CONFIDENCE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. TAFB\r\nAND SAB SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSIS YIELDS T-NUMBERS OF 2.5\r\nAND 2.0 RESPECTIVELY...CONSEQUENTLY THE CYCLONE IS ON THE VERGE OF\r\nREACHING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES\r\nALONG THE GUNS CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND STAYS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nCONTINUITY.  THE 18Z SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCREASES TO 45 KTS\r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS SINCE THE GFS DEEP MEAN LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE IN\r\nTHE RANGE OF 15-20 KTS AND REYNOLDS SST VALUES OF 28C ALONG THE\r\nCYCLONE TRACK.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/SISKO\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 17.0N  41.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N  42.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.9N  44.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 21.4N  46.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 22.9N  47.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 24.8N  48.4W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 26.6N  47.2W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 27.9N  45.6W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2003\r\n\r\nAN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0014Z SHOWED THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSIXTEEN HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. \r\nWHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH...THEY ARE ALL BASED ON A CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THE MICROWAVE DATA.  THUS...THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nREMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND EAST OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS... CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THESE FEATURES SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO RE-CURVE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE UKMET IS AN\r\nOUTLIER CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND DRIFT WESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RECURVATURE...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED THAN THAT OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS.  THE INITIAL MOTION AND\r\nSPEED REQUIRES THE FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED CONSIDERABELY TO\r\nTHE RIGHT...AND THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO\r\nBE SHIFTED MORE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF CURRENT\r\nTRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nPATTERN OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  IF SHEAR WERE THE\r\nONLY FACTOR...THE DEPRESSION WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE COULD BE DYNAMICAL FORCING FROM THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT\r\nCOULD PARTLY COMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR...AND THE GFS..NOGAPS...AND\r\nCANADIAN ALL CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY AFTER RECURVATURE. \r\nIN LIGHT OF THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 18.6N  42.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  43.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 21.9N  44.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 23.6N  45.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 24.8N  46.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 26.0N  46.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 27.5N  45.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 29.5N  43.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n \r\nPOST ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SHEARED\r\nDEPRESSION WITH DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINING ROUGHLY 120 NM E OF AN\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT IS LIKELY DUE TO CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY CONSTRAINTS OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. CONSIDERING THE\r\nSHEARED STATE OF THE DEPRESSION...WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/14 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nALONG THIS TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nMOTION AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RE-CURVE. THE UKMET MODEL...AN\r\nEARLIER OUTLIER TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS... HAS FALLEN INTO\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDN ON A RE-CURVING SYSTEM\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS SHOW A\r\nSHARP TURN TO THE WEST BEYOND 96 HOURS... INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED\r\nSYSTEM WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETTING PICKED UP IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A RE-CURVING \r\nMODERATE TROPICAL STORM WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR A POSSIBLY SHEARED CIRCULATION AND A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.  \r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATING SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KT BY 72\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...SOME FAVORABLE INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE FAVORABLE SSTS THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD MAY HELP TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY. THEREFORE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LIMITED INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 19.8N  43.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N  44.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 23.6N  45.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 25.2N  45.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 26.6N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 29.0N  43.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 30.5N  41.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 32.0N  38.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n\r\nEARLY MORNING GOES-12 IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED CENTER AND MOST \r\nOF THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITH SOME\r\nCONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER.  AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 KNOTS KEEPING THE\r\nSYSTEM A DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT AND IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT IN\r\nTHE EXTENDED PERIOD.  BEYOND 96 HRS THE GFS TRACK SOLUTION MOVES\r\nTHE CYCLONE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW WHICH DETACHES\r\nFROM THE PRIMARY TROUGH...CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM RESPONDS TO THIS\r\nUPPER LOW WITH A MORE NORTHWEST AND FINALLY WESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK SLOWS BEYOND 96 HRS AND BY 120 HRS NUDGES MORE\r\nTOWARD THE GFS WESTWARD TRACK. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY WHICH CALLED FOR THE CYCLONE\r\nTO STRENGTHEN DID NOT MATERIALIZE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION AS\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVER THE CYCLONE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HRS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE THAT HAS\r\nSHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 30 KT BY 60 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN A DEPRESSION UNLESS THE SHEAR PATTERN RELAXES\r\nBEYOND 96 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/SISKO\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 20.4N  43.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N  44.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.9N  45.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 25.3N  45.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.8N  44.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 28.8N  42.7W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 30.1N  40.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 31.8N  39.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS FINALLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS THE SMALL FLARE\r\nUP OF CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER EXPANDED AND FILLED THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSENSUS IN THE DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA OF 3.0 AND CI-NUMBERS OF 2.5 PUSH THE\r\nINTENSITY INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. ALTOUGH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nCALLED FOR NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nHAS ALTERED THAT LOGIC. HOWEVER...IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO DEBATE\r\n30 KT VERSUS 35 KT CYCLONE INTENSITY IN SITUATIONS WHERE IN SITU\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE UNAVAILABLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE 12Z NOGAPS AND GFS RUNS ARE\r\nCONSISTENT IN MOVING KATE WESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS...AS THE SURFACE\r\nRIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN UPPER LOW\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NUDGES\r\nIN THIS DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE CYCLONE IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE CENTER WAS EXPOSED...HOWEVER THE SHEAR PRESENT THIS\r\nMORNING HAS APPEARED TO LESSEN A LITTLE BIT AND HAS ALLOWED THE\r\nCONVECTION TO FLARE UP.  THE 18Z SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...THE WIND SHEAR FROM THE GFS INCREASES ABOVE 30 KTS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THE SHIPS STRENGTHENING TREND. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/SISKO\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 21.5N  44.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  44.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 25.0N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 26.4N  44.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 28.0N  43.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 29.1N  42.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 30.6N  40.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2003\r\n \r\nANALYSIS OF THE 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS IN KATE\r\nARE AT LEAST 45 KT...AND THIS AGREES WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION\r\nOF T3.0 FROM TAFB.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nWITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10...ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE MOTION MAY BE SLOWING FURTHER.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS\r\nCOMPLICATED.  IN THE SHORT RUN...KATE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECURVE\r\nUNDERNEATH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A COMPLEX INTERACTION OR\r\nMERGER OF KATE WITH THIS LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE\r\nRESULTANT SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE LARGE MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NEAR 37N/53W.  I AM NOT SURE WHAT RESULTS\r\nWILL BE ENTIRELY TROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAKES KATE A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS...UNDER 27 KT\r\nOF SHEAR...WHILE ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO FIND SOME MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN\r\nTHESE OPTIONS.  WITH INCREASING SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWEAKENS THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS...BUT ALLOWS FOR\r\nREINTENSIFICATION FOLLOWING THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW AND\r\nTHE TURN BACK TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 22.4N  44.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N  45.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 25.8N  44.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 27.4N  43.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 29.0N  42.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 30.0N  40.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 31.5N  40.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  42.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KATE IS NOW\r\nTUCKED BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5\r\nAND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY FURTHER SUPPORT SOME LIMITED\r\nDEEPENING OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT KATE IS NOW MOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH\r\nAT 9 KT. GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT INTO TWO SCHOOLS...WITH THE\r\nGFS...GFDL..AND UKMET INDICATING A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVEN\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM GETS CAPTURED BY THE \r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE SECOND SCHOOL OF GUIDANCE\r\nCONSISTS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH BOTH\r\nBUILD A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF KATE BY DAY THREE\r\nAND FORCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.\r\nCONTINUING WITH EARLIER REASONING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nRE CURVE SOUTH OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE FIRST 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A SLOWING IN THE FORWARD MOTION AND INDICATES A TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND WEST BY DAY FIVE.\r\n \r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES STRENGTHENING OF KATE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE\r\nFORCE OVER THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH SLOW DECAY BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...GFDL CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SYSTEM TO 90\r\nKT BY DAY THREE. GIVEN THAT KATE HAS DEEPENED IN A MODERATE SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A\r\nSIMILAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDOES CALL FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING INITIALLY WITH WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE FURTHER. THE FORECAST DOES\r\nALLOW FOR SOME RE INTENSIFICATION BY DAY FIVE SHOULD A COHERENT\r\nWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL EXIST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 23.4N  44.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 24.7N  44.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 26.1N  43.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 27.5N  42.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 28.5N  40.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 30.0N  38.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 31.0N  38.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 31.5N  39.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...THE\r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTIVE BAND IS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND THE OVERALL PATTERN ON IR IMAGERY IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE\r\nAS IT WAS OVERNIGHT.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 0913Z SSMI PASS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF KATE IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST THAN ORIGINALLY\r\nTHOUGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ADJUSTED TO 020/9.  A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS KATE IS STEERED BY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AWAY\r\nFROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THIS WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON ANY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT BY 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW AGREES\r\nIN BUILDING THIS STRONG ANTICYCLONE AND STEERING KATE ON A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS. THE UKMET IS THE SOLE OUTLIER\r\nAND CONTINUES TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARD\r\nCOOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS KATE TO A HURRICANE...AND PEAKS THE\r\nINTENSITY NEAR 60 KT BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. THE GFDL...ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...STEADILY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO 100 KT IN 48 HOURS\r\nBUT THIS SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INCREASES THE SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HRS AND SO IT SEEMS THAT ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS\r\nJUSTIFIED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENS KATE TO 60 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS AND MAINTAINS THAT INTENSITY UNTIL 48 HOURS. SLIGHT WEAKENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECELERATE AND RE-CURVE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST WITH THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AT 50 KT THROUGH 120\r\nHOURS. IF KATE CAN SURVIVE THIS ENVIRONMENT...IT IS CONCEIVABLE\r\nTHAT SHE COULD CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC\r\nWELL BEYOND THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BERG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 24.5N  43.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 25.4N  42.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 26.8N  41.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 28.0N  39.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 29.0N  38.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  37.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N  37.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 32.0N  38.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n \r\nKATE HAS NOT ORGANIZED ANY FURTHER THROUGH THE DAY. SATELLITE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND KGWC HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY...AND REMAIN THE\r\nSAME FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE ESTIMATES...AND IN CONSIDERATION OF THE\r\nFACT THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE. THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY MAY HAVE BEEN A BIT GENEROUS AND NOW THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM TO ONLY 55 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS SHIPS...AND SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. KATE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND THE SYSTEM INTERACTS UNFAVORABLY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO\r\nINTENSIFY KATE TO 100 KT IN 48 HOURS BUT THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT MAKES THIS DOUBTFUL.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nKATE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR\r\n10 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN DECELERATE AND MAKE A LEFT TURN\r\nIN 2-3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A\r\nBIT TO THE WEST IN THE 4 TO 5 DAY RANGE...SUGGESTING THAT THIS TURN\r\nMAY BE SHARPER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BERG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 25.2N  42.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 26.3N  41.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 27.7N  40.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 28.9N  38.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 29.9N  37.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 31.0N  38.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 31.5N  39.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  41.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/15.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH CAUSING DECELERATION AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER BUT IT IS NOT\r\nWELL ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45/55/55 KT FROM\r\nAFGWC/TAFB/SAB AND THE OFFICIAL ESTIMATE FOR 03Z REMAINS AT 50\r\nKNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING WITH\r\nOVER 30 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS ALSO FOR LITTLE CHANGE.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS\r\nANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF THE\r\nLARGE SHEAR VALUE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 26.7N  40.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N  39.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 29.3N  37.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 30.2N  36.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N  36.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 31.5N  38.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  39.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 33.0N  42.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003\r\n \r\nA RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST IS KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED\r\nBENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. CONSENSUS 3.5 CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL MAKE KATE A 55 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH FORECAST BY ALL BUT THE UKMET MODEL CAUSING A\r\nDECELERATION OF KATE AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...REMAINING SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS DURING DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING A RELAXATION OF THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE THAT COULD ACTUALLY ALLOW\r\nKATE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER MARGINAL SSTS...APPROXIMATELY 26\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS...IN THAT PORTION OF THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER KATE\r\nBY THAT TIME...IT IS NOT UNREALISTIC TO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nACCOUNTS FOR THIS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TREND IN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 27.7N  39.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 29.0N  38.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 30.1N  37.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  37.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 31.3N  37.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 31.6N  39.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 32.5N  41.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 34.0N  44.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 30\r\nKT OF SHEAR OVER KATE...THE STORM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING.  RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE...AND\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF A DIMPLE/WARM SPOT IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT...AND BASED ON\r\nTHIS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE 12Z...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...050/17.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW NEAR 34N 40W THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING KATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO MOVE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD...WITH KATE TURNING NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD ON\r\nITS EASTERN SIDE.  EVENTUALLY...KATE SHOULD WIND UP ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nEXCEPT THE UKMET CALLS FOR THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS.  THE\r\nUKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR AN EASTWARD MOTION.  ALTHOUGH THIS\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY IT COULD OCCUR IF KATE AND THE UPPER LOW DO NOT\r\nINTERACT AS SHOWN IN THE OTHER MODELS.\r\n\r\nKATE HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nSHIPS...GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL FORECAST THE SHEAR TO\r\nDECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE CYCLONE ROTATES AROUND THE\r\nEASTERN AND NORTHERN SIDES OF THE UPPER LOW.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY...\r\nKATE WOULD LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR.  THERE\r\nIS A CHANCE THAT KATE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST\r\nIF THE STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT DISRUPTED TOO MUCH BY INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE UPPER LOW.  AFTER 72 HR...KATE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER 25-26C\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 28.8N  37.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 30.0N  36.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 30.8N  36.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 31.3N  36.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 31.6N  36.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  38.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 33.0N  40.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 35.0N  45.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2003\r\n \r\nA RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER\r\nHAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED.  OTHERWISE...KATE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE STORM FEATURES A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A LARGE OUTER BAND IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN 55\r\nKT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/16.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 33N 40W THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nSTEERING KATE NORTHEASTWARD.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW\r\nTO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACT WITH KATE.  HOWEVER... WHAT\r\nHAPPENS DURING THE INTERACTION HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR.  THE GFDL...\r\nNOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS TURN KATE NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS CHANGED ITS FORECAST AND\r\nHAS JOINED THE UKMET IN FORECASTING AN EASTWARD MOTION...WITH THE\r\nGFS SHOWING KATE REACHING 20W BEFORE IT TURNS NORTHWARD.  THE\r\nOVERALL GUIDANCE PATTERN NOW RESEMBLES A SQUASHED SPIDER...WHICH IS\r\nOFTEN THE SIGN THAT THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL STICK WITH THE SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST...BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER\r\nSPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nKATE IS HOLDING TOGETHER DESPITE 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nSHIPS... GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL FORECAST DECREASING\r\nSHEAR DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS KATE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW. \r\nSHOULD THIS VERIFY...KATE WOULD LIKELY STRENGTHEN...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS A CHANCE\r\nTHAT KATE COULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER IF THE STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT\r\nDISRUPTED TOO MUCH BY THE UPPER LOW.  AFTER 72 HR...KATE WILL BE\r\nNEAR OR OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 29.8N  36.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 30.3N  35.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 30.9N  35.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 31.5N  35.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 31.8N  36.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 32.5N  37.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 33.0N  39.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  42.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2003\r\n \r\nTHE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...AT 21Z...CONTAINED AN UNCONTAMINATED\r\n65 KT VECTOR IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AND TWO FLAGGED 65 KT\r\nVECTORS WHICH I ALSO ACCEPT AS VALID. ON THE BASIS OF THESE\r\nDATA...KATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE RESOLUTION OF\r\nTHIS INSTRUMENT...THE ACTUAL PEAK WINDS MIGHT EVEN HAVE BEEN A BIT\r\nHIGHER. SINCE THE TIME OF THE PASS THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...WITH A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2330Z CLEARLY\r\nSHOWING A SHEARED STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/14...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...BUT\r\nKATE IS NOT SLOWING AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE ONLY THING\r\nI AM CONFIDENT OF REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK IS THAT THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL PROBABLY HAVE LARGE ERRORS. KATE IS EMBEDDED IN A\r\nHIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY\r\nDIVERGENT. IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT THE TRACK CAN BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT\r\nON THE VERTICAL COHERENCE OF THE VORTEX...SOMETHING THAT IS RATHER\r\nDIFFICULT TO PREDICT. STILL...THERE IS A COLLECTION OF GUIDANCE\r\nTHAT SHARPLY TURNS KATE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nSEEN IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE\r\nGFS...WHICH HAD AN EASTWARD TRACK IN THE 12Z RUN...IS BACK AGAIN\r\nWITH A WEST TRACK IN THE 18Z RUN. OF THE MAJOR MODELS...ONLY THE\r\nUKMET RESISTS THE WESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TURN AND SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER WITH THE SUBSEQUENT WESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nAS KATE SLOWS...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LESSEN BEFORE THE UPPER FLOW\r\nDOES...AND SO I EXPECT INCREASING SEPARATION BETWEEN THE CENTER AND\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE HAS SOME\r\nWEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  AS KATE TURNS BACK TO THE WEST THE\r\nUPPER FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE DIFLUENT AND THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDIMINISH...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...COOLER SSTS AND UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 30.4N  35.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 31.0N  34.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 31.5N  34.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N  34.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 32.5N  36.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 32.5N  37.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 33.0N  40.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 34.0N  43.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003\r\n \r\nKATE IS UNDERGOING SOME SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...DUE IN PART TO \r\nTHE CYCLONE SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED AND ALSO TURNING MORE\r\nNORTHWARD NOW. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED IN APPEARANCE.\r\nTHERE REMAINS ...HOWEVER...A RATHER WELL-DEFINED LOW-/MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AS NOTED IN NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/07...EVEN THOUGH THE PAST 6-HOUR\r\nMOTION WAS 035/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON KATE BECOMING\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE LAST FEW\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THIS MAY ALREADY BE\r\nOCCURRING. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nBIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HALF THE MODELS TAKING\r\nKATE EASTWARD...WHILE THE OTHER HALF TAKE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE\r\nUKMET AND MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS TAKE KATE EASTWARD...WHILE THE\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...GFDL...AND GFDN MODELS MOVE KATE\r\nWESTWARD. THE UKMET KEEPS KATE AS A RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY GIVEN THE TENACITY WITH WHICH THIS CYCLONE\r\nHAS FOUGHT OFF SOME HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS...INDICATING THAT KATE\r\nIS A VERY DEEP AND WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM. AS SUCH...KATE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOW AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY 24 HOURS AS IS UNDERGOES\r\nSOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW  LOCATED ABOUT\r\n350 NMI WEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE UPPER-LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD ...\r\nKATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING\r\nDEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND ALSO FASTER AFTER 72\r\nHOURS....WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nKATE MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW\r\nTO THE WEST MAINTAINS SOME SHEAR ON THE SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...BY 24-36 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL\r\nTHE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nWHICH WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BY 96 TO 120\r\nHOURS...A SMALL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO RESIDE\r\nNEAR 35N 50W...WHICH WOULD FAVOR EVEN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN WHAT\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\n...AND THEN MUCH HIGHER THAN SHIPS BASED ON THE LOWER LATITUDE\r\nFORECAST KEEPING KATE OVER WARMER WATER AND ALSO UNDER LITTLE OR NO\r\nSHEAR CONDITIONS. THE GFDL MODEL IS SIMILAR IN THAT IT BRINGS KATE\r\nUP TO 80-85 KT IN 48-60 HOURS AND THEN HOLDS IT STEADY AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 31.1N  34.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 31.9N  34.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 32.1N  35.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 32.3N  36.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 32.4N  38.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 32.6N  41.4W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 33.5N  45.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 35.0N  50.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003\r\n \r\nKATE REMAINS UNDER SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR DUE TO THE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER CYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND ALSO\r\nDUE TO THE SLOWING OF ITS FORWARD MOTION. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE COOLED SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE UPPER DIFFLENCE AND DRY AIR\r\nINTRUSION...MORE LIKE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAN A\r\nTRADITIONAL CDO. THE GENERAL APPEARANCE OF KATE AT THIS TIME IS\r\nBECOMING LESS TROPICAL AS THERE IS AN APPARENT FRONTAL ROPE\r\nEXTENDING SOUTH OF THE CENTER ON RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND A DRY SLOT TO ITS SOUTHEAST...THESE FEATURES SHOULD WEAKEN WITH\r\nTIME AS THE UPPER CYCLONE TO ITS WEST BECOMES LESS INVOLVED IN\r\nKATES CIRCULATION. A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION PERSISTS...IN\r\nFACT A CLEAR/WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED ON THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGE FROM 1400Z...BUT THIS DOES NOT INITIALLY APPEAR TO BE AN\r\nEYE...IT COULD BE KATES MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREAMINS 55 KT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5 FROM\r\nSAB...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFWA...AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. COOLING CLOUD TOPS\r\nSEEN IN IR IMAGERY ARE THE MAIN REASON WHY THE INTESITY IS NOT\r\nBEING LOWERED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT\r\nDOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE TALL CONVECTION ARE KEEPING THE INTENSITY\r\nUP...AND JUST IN CASE THAT REALLY IS AN EYE POPPING OUT NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/05...EVEN THOUGH THE PAST SIX\r\nHOUR MOTION IS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. MANY OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON KATE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TODAY DUE TO A\r\nBUILDING WARM CORE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST AND BINARY\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE UPPER CYCLONE NR 32N 43W.  THIS FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES THE SOUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS...\r\nDISCARDING CLIPER...LBAR...AND THE UKMET. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO\r\nTHE STORMS CURRENT FORWARD MOTION AND THE CHOSEN MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH KATE REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...NO WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN TENACIOUS THUS FAR AND REMAINS OVR\r\nSSTS AT OR ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nLESSEN WHICH WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROTH/ORRISON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 32.0N  35.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 32.4N  36.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 32.4N  37.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 32.4N  39.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 32.4N  41.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 32.7N  45.9W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 33.9N  49.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 36.1N  51.6W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003\r\n \r\nKATE REMAINS UNDER SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR AS EVIDENCED FROM THE\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SLIGHLY DECREASED TO 50 KT DUE TO THE PARTLY EXPOSED\r\nCENTER...WITH THE MOST RECENT SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/09. THE\r\nGFS/CANADIAN/UKMET/NOGAPS...ETC\r\nMODELS AGREE ON KATE TAKING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK DUE TO A\r\nBUILDING DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK CONTINUES TO INDICATE KATE SHOULD TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF THIS ANTICYCLONE.  THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECASTS. THE\r\nCANADIAN AND GFS FORECASTS SHOW POSITIONS FURTHER SOUTH THAN\r\nINDICATED IN THE 18Z ANALYZED POSITION...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSTARTS AND STAYS NORTH OF THESE MODELS.  \r\n \r\nTHE GFS FORECAST WIND PROFILES INDICATE A RELAXATION OF THE VERTICAL\r\nDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGING KATE OVER\r\n26-28C WATER THROUGH 96 HOURS AND THEN SST VALUES SLOWLY DROPPING\r\nINTO THE MID 20S C THEREAFTER. A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS BUT SST VALUES ARE LOW FOR A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS\r\nFORECAST AS WELL.  A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST AS THE TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH BRINGS KATE OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS...ALSO SUPPORTED BY SHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PETERSEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 32.6N  36.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.7N  37.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.6N  39.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 32.4N  41.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 32.4N  43.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 32.7N  47.7W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 33.7N  51.2W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  53.4W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2003\r\n \r\nKATE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY\r\nEXPOSED WITH CONVECTION LOCATED MOSTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY FROM SAB...TAFB...AND KGWC. THE WIND RADII WERE\r\nADJUSTED PRIMARILY BASED ON A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW\r\nMOVING WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS A WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THIS\r\nMOTION IS A RESULT OF THE CYCLONE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A \r\nSTRONG RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF KATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. AT DAYS FOUR AND\r\nFIVE KATE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.\r\n\r\nTHE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CLOSELY.  A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST AS THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING KATE \r\nOVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 32.5N  37.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  39.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 32.2N  41.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  43.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  45.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 32.5N  49.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 33.5N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 35.5N  54.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OVERALL IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CURVED\r\nBAND WRAPPING AROUND A CENTER. IN FACT...WE COULD MAKE A CASE FOR A\r\nBANDING TYPE EYE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS\r\nTIME AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AND KATE IS MOVING TOWARD WARMER WATERS...A SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL. \r\nTHE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN BRINGING KATE TO HURRICANE STATUS\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND INCREASES THE WINDS TO 87 KNOTS IN ABOUT 4\r\nDAYS. MAYBE THIS IS TOO MUCH BUT THE GFDL HAS BEEN FAIRLY GOOD IN\r\nSHOWING INTENSITY TRENDS. \r\n\r\nKATE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE\r\nUPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE IS\r\nNO CHOICE BUT ADJUST THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SOUTHWARD OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE LATEST GFS..GFDL...NOGAPS AND THE\r\nCONSENSUS GUNA AND GUNS. THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS IS ALSO INDICATED. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 32.4N  38.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 32.1N  40.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  43.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  45.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 31.0N  47.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 31.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  54.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 35.0N  57.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATE HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST\r\n24 HR...AND THE STORM IS RESPONDING.  WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE\r\nRELATIVELY WARM...KATE NOW HAS AN EXCELLENT BANDING PATTERN WITH A\r\nFORMATIVE EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND BASED ON THAT AND THE DEVELOPING EYE THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KT.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE WEST\r\nQUADRANT AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/10.  KATE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALONG 30N BETWEEN 38W-48W.  THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nSTEER KATE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 48-72\r\nHR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THINGS GET A LITTLE\r\nNEBULOUS AFTER 72 HR AS KATE APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  MOST GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. \r\nHOWEVER...THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DUE TO A SECOND VORTEX THAT THE MODEL DEVELOPS\r\nSOUTHEAST OF KATE.  THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS DUBIOUS AT THIS\r\nTIME...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. \r\nOVERALL...THE TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND DOWN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST GENERALLY\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KATE\r\nTO STRENGTHEN IF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH.  THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 27C SSTS...SO GIVEN\r\nTHAT AND CURRENT TRENDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KATE DOES\r\nNOT DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER 25-26C SSTS\r\nWHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST KATE TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR...SO\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 32.2N  40.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 31.9N  42.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 31.5N  44.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 31.2N  46.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 31.0N  49.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 31.5N  52.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 32.5N  55.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  57.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":25,"Date":"2003-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n \r\nKATE HAS DEVELOPED A CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH A GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE. \r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE ONLY -50C TO -60C...THE STRUCTURE IS\r\nGOOD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THE ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF THE EYE...KATE IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nKATE HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW 255/11.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  KATE IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALONG 28N-29N \r\nBETWEEN 38W-51W.  THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER KATE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 48-72 HR...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...MOST GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\nTHE TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 96 HR AND IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE DETAILS DIFFER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST GENERALLY\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW KATE\r\nTO STRENGTHEN IF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH.  THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 27C SSTS...SO GIVEN\r\nTHAT AND CURRENT TRENDS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED\r\nUPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF KATE\r\nDOES NOT DIP AS FAR SOUTH AS FORECAST...IT WILL STAY OVER COOLER\r\nSSTS WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST KATE TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLIES AFTER 72\r\nHR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 31.5N  41.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 31.2N  43.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.6N  45.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  48.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 30.5N  50.4W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 31.5N  53.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 36.5N  57.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":26,"Date":"2003-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF KATE HAS BEEN BLINKING IN AND OUT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY WARMER THAN -60C. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...\r\nREMAIN AT 65 KT.  THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO\r\nTHE EAST BUT NOT MUCH ELSEWHERE.  INTERESTINGLY...A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS DID NOT SHOW ANY HURRICANE FORCE WINDS LIKE THE PASS OF A\r\nCOUPLE NIGHTS AGO WHEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WAS LESS IMPRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nKATE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/12...BUT MIGHT BE EVEN LEFT OF\r\nTHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN\r\nNUDGED SOUTHWARD BUT IS BASICALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nKATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS.  THE\r\nUKMET HAS A TRACK THAT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE\r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF KATE HAS LITTLE SHEAR...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE SCALE UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW. \r\nGIVEN THIS PATTERN...IT IS HARD FOR ME TO SEE KATE DEVELOPING\r\nSTRONG OUTFLOW AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS\r\nAGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IF KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN EXPECTED...THEN INCREASING SSTS WOULD FAVOR A LITTLE\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 30.7N  42.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.2N  44.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N  47.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 30.2N  49.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 30.5N  51.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 31.5N  54.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 34.0N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 37.5N  58.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":27,"Date":"2003-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 4.5\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75\r\nKNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO AND THE HURRICANE IS HEADING TOWARD WARMER WATERS. THEREFORE...\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT PERIOD.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nCOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nKATE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. AS A\r\nMID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE\r\nANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE EASTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW KATE TO\r\nTURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS\r\nAND THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL TURNS\r\nTHE HURRICANE NORTHWARD SOONER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 30.1N  43.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 29.8N  45.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 29.8N  48.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 30.0N  50.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 30.5N  52.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 32.5N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 36.0N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 40.0N  58.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":28,"Date":"2003-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nKATE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATING A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE AND COOLING\r\nCONVETIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n77 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n75 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nPOOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 240/8...ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST A MORE\r\nWESTERLY MOTION. KATE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N46W.  THIS SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 48 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THE FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR AS KATE IS\r\nFORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERLIES AT THE WESTERN END OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN\r\nWHEN AND HOW FAST.  THIS PART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nCOMPROMISE SPEED-WISE BETWEEN THE FASTER UKMET AND THE SLOWER\r\nGFS...AND DIRECTION-WISE BETWEEN FARTHER WEST NOGAPS AND THE\r\nFARTHER EAST GFS AND UKMET.\r\n\r\nKATE IS WELL-ORGANIZED...OVER WARM WATER...AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE FAVORABLE CONDITION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT KATE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 30.0N  44.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 29.8N  45.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 29.8N  48.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 30.0N  50.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 30.5N  52.4W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 32.5N  56.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 41.0N  57.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":29,"Date":"2003-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nKATE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL-\r\nDEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE AND GRADUALLY COOLING CONVETIVE TOPS IN THE\r\nEYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n80 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OBJECTIVE INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 255/9. KATE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n27N45W.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 36-48 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nWITH THIS AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE FORECAST IS MORE\r\nUNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR AS KATE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE\r\nWESTERLIES AT THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS IN WHEN AND HOW FAST.  THIS PART OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE SPEED-WISE BETWEEN THE\r\nFASTER UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS...AND DIRECTION-WISE BETWEEN\r\nFARTHER WEST NOGAPS AND THE FARTHER EAST GFS...UKMET... AND GFDL\r\n \r\nKATE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...OVER WARM WATER...AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE FAVORABLE CONDITION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME...AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE\r\nTHAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO AGREE THAT KATE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AFTER 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 29.8N  45.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 29.7N  46.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 29.7N  48.9W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 30.0N  51.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 30.5N  53.4W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 33.0N  56.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 37.5N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 45.0N  54.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":30,"Date":"2003-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/10.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT KATE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE\r\nANCHORED IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO ACCELERATE KATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 AND 5.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nAGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THAT IT IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AFTER DAY 4.  KATE MAY WELL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY OR INTENSITY FORECAST.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 75 TO 90 KNOT RANGE AS KATE\r\nCONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 90 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 29.5N  46.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 29.4N  47.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 29.8N  50.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 30.1N  52.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 31.0N  54.7W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 34.8N  57.2W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 43.0N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 51.0N  49.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":31,"Date":"2003-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KATE\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE EYE IS LARGE AND DISTINCT AND IT IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING THAT THE WINDS\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR\r\nA DAY OR TWO AND KATE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AS INDICATED BY\r\nDRIFTING BUOYS. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED AND KATE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST\r\nOR SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OT THE STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. KATE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nIN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A LARGE APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS..PRIMARILY THE\r\nCONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA. \r\n\r\nONCE KATE MAKES THE NORTHWARD TURN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. KATE WILL EVENTUALLY \r\nBE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 29.3N  47.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 29.3N  49.5W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 30.0N  52.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 30.5N  54.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 37.5N  57.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 48.0N  52.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":32,"Date":"2003-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n\r\nKATE HAS A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-\r\nDEFINED 22NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND\r\nOUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO\r\nGOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS INCREASED TO GOOD IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  KATE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING IT FOR THE PAST COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...AND IT SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24\r\nHR.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES IN 36-48\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH\r\nTHE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOW BEING HOW FAST KATE WILL MOVE AFTER\r\nTURNING NORTHWARD.  AS A WHOLE...THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nWITH THE NORTHWARD ACCELERATION THAN SEEN EARLIER...SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER AS WELL.\r\n \r\nKATE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN MORE IN THE NEXT 24 HR GIVEN THE GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRUCTURE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HR...WHICH SHOULD START A\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  KATE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 29.5N  48.3W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 29.6N  50.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 30.0N  52.2W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 30.6N  54.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 31.6N  55.4W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 37.5N  56.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 48.5N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":33,"Date":"2003-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nKATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND\r\n90 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING KATE A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nEXCEPT SOUTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION NOW IS 275/10.  KATE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN\r\nEND OF THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING IT FOR THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT SHOULD START TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN\r\n12-24 HR.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIN 24-36 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCES NOW BEING HOW FAST KATE WILL\r\nMOVE AFTER TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FAST AND SLOW SOLUTIONS FOR THAT PART OF THE\r\nTRACK...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KATE IS APPROACHING SIGNIFICANT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...AND THESE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nREVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TO WEAKENING IN 24-36 HR.  THERE\r\nIS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12\r\nHR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...KATE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN UNTIL IT LOSES TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT A 120 HR POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE\r\nOCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT KATE WILL LAST\r\nLONGER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 29.7N  49.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 29.9N  51.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 30.5N  53.6W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 31.3N  55.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 33.0N  56.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 40.5N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 52.5N  49.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 61.0N  32.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":34,"Date":"2003-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AFTER 48 HOURS AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 96 HOURS AS A\r\nVIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nKATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLASSICAL HURRICANE STRUCTURE...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF THE CDO HAS ERODED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES\r\nAND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 100 KT.  THERE IS LESS THAN 24\r\nHOURS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AFTER WHICH KATE\r\nSHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  FINALLY KATE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT MOVES NORTH OF 50\r\nDEGREES NORTH LATITUDE.\r\n\r\nNOTE THAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER CLOSE TO EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 29.9N  50.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 30.1N  52.4W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 30.7N  54.4W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 31.8N  55.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 34.0N  56.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 43.0N  54.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 53.5N  45.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 61.5N  23.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":35,"Date":"2003-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nKATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS. KATE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR AND THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPECTED TURN IS ALREADY BEGINNING AND KATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BY 72\r\nHOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL HAS KATE PASSING JUST\r\nEAST OF EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 30.3N  52.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 30.7N  54.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  57.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 36.0N  57.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 46.0N  53.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 55.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 62.0N  16.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":36,"Date":"2003-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT T5.5/102KT WHILE THE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED SLIGHTLY TO T5.0/90 KT. HOWEVER, A NEARLY SOLID RING OF\r\nCOLDER TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE WELL-DEFINED\r\n20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE SINCE THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. ALL OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE BY 24-36\r\nHOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE GETS CAPTURED BY AN APPROACHING STRONG LONGWAVE\r\nTROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY SUDNAY.\r\nALSO...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72\r\nHOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN BEFORE THAT\r\nTIME...AND A 60 H POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 43N 55W. THIS MOTION WOULD\r\nTAKE KATE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 60-72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nKATE HAS MAINTAINED A TRACK OVER WARM WATER AND THIS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A STEADY BUT SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 30.1N  53.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 30.4N  55.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 31.7N  56.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  57.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 37.0N  57.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 47.5N  51.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 56.5N  34.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 62.5N   8.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":37,"Date":"2003-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KATE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nHAS STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 110\r\nKT BASED ON A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T5.8...OR\r\n110 KT...WITH A PEAK ODT OF T5.9/112 KT AT 1815Z. OUTFLOW IS\r\nBECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...BUT IT CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND\r\nEXPAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10. KATE REMAINS ON TRACK...SO\r\nTHERE IS REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nREASONING. THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATE SHOULD\r\nSTILL BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 24 HOURS HOURS...AND THEN\r\nRAPIDLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE GETS\r\nCAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY\r\nSUNDAY. NOTE...WHILE KATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAKE A\r\nGRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS...SO A 60-HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOSITION WOULD BE NEAR 46.5N 51.5W. THIS MOTION WOULD TAKE KATE\r\nJUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nKATE HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENBSITY...SO SLOW BUT STEADY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A FASTER RATE\r\nOF WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES ACROSS THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 30.3N  54.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 31.0N  56.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 32.8N  57.2W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 35.7N  57.4W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 51.0N  46.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 57.5N  27.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 63.5N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":38,"Date":"2003-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 280/07.  KATE IS NEARING THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN ANCHORED IN\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR QUITE SOME TIME.  KATE IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE ITS\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS IT ENTERS THE STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THAT CONSTITUTES THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS PARTIALLY\r\nERODED ON THE WEST SIDE...PERHAPS FROM WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...\r\nAND SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77/90 KNOTS FROM\r\nSAB/TAFB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS.  SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A FASTER RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS SSTS GET COLD AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS KATE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\nNEAR GREAT BRITAIN IN 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 30.6N  55.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 31.3N  56.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.6N  57.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 37.1N  56.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 42.0N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 60.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 62.5N   5.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":39,"Date":"2003-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER A LITTLE BIT OF EROSION ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...LATEST\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT KATE HAS REDEVELOPED A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nSURROUNDING THE EYE. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 95 KNOTS. KATE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN\r\nGRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER\r\nWATER.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON THE TRACK. KATE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME\r\nSTEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. IT SHOULD THEN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 30.6N  55.8W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 31.3N  56.6W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.0N  57.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  56.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 42.0N  53.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 53.0N  39.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 60.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 60.0N   5.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":40,"Date":"2003-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nDVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...WITH CI NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB\r\nAND 5.0 FROM SAB.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO\r\n85 KT.  AFTER 24 HOURS WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL\r\nRAPIDLY AND THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE.  COUNTERING THAT WILL BE AN\r\nACCELERATION TO 30-40 KT OF TRANSLATION AND EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES\r\nOFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE UKMET DOES HAVE A TRACK THAT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...SO AN IMPACT THERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT YET.  AFTER\r\nTHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS SOULTION. \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATE WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 31.2N  56.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  56.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 35.4N  56.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 39.5N  54.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 45.0N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 57.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 60.0N   7.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":41,"Date":"2003-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nKATE CONTINUES TO TURN AND ACCELERATE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n350/9.  KATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE\r\nMAJOR TROUGH OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT.  EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nNOGAPS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...WITH SOME UNDERSTANDABLE SPEED DIFFERENCES AFTER THAT.  THE\r\nGFS TAKES KATE A LITTLE QUICKER INTO THE WESTERLIES AND ENDS UP\r\nBEING FASTER THAN THE UKMET.  SINCE KATE ALREADY SEEMS TO BE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE GFS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TO THE\r\nSPEED OF THE UKMET SOLUTION.  KATE COULD PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND TO PRODUCE GALES THERE.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF KATE IS CLOSING UP AND OUTFLOW IS SUPPRESSED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT BY THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT...AND SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT. BY 48 HOURS KATE SHOULD BE OVER\r\n12C WATER AND BE EXTRATROPICAL. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nKATE WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND SO THE FORECAST\r\nWINDS ARE ONLY SLOWLY LOWERED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 31.9N  56.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.7N  56.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 37.0N  56.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 41.0N  53.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 47.5N  47.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 58.0N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 60.0N  10.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":42,"Date":"2003-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. KATE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD JOG...BUT THIS IS\r\nBELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY...SO THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. KATE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING\r\nLARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH TO\r\nTHE WEST. THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nSYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEMS SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KATE NORTHWARD\r\nAND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. \r\n \r\nTHE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH\r\nIS BEGINNING TO AFFECT KATE. THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT HAS ERODED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED. CONTINUED\r\nSLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AND BY 36 HOURS KATE WILL BE OVER COLD\r\nWATER NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM...AND ALSO LIKELY BECOMING ENTANGLED\r\nWITH A COLD FRONT. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 48\r\nHOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED\r\nWELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 33.0N  56.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  55.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 39.1N  54.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 44.3N  50.8W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 50.0N  44.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 59.0N  25.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 60.0N   5.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF THE GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":43,"Date":"2003-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n\r\nKATE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  SLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS KATE MOVES TOWARD HIGHER\r\nLATITUDES...AND KATE SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nMAINTAINED AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. \r\nKATE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTIONS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW A\r\nCONTINUED ACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nSOME SLOWING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW TO ITS NORTH.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS OR\r\nCANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE PROJECTED TRACK IS EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INTERESTS\r\nTHERE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD\r\nDEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES PLACE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 34.2N  55.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 37.2N  55.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 42.3N  52.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 49.0N  47.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 56.0N  40.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 62.0N  24.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 61.0N   3.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":44,"Date":"2003-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nKATE RETAINS A BANDING EYE...AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS\r\nEXCEPT THE SOUTH.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOT AS DEEP AS IT WAS A\r\nFEW HOURS AGO AND T NUMBERS ARE FALLING.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS REDUCED TO 75 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS AS KATE LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A\r\nSTRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES ACROSS\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nKATE IS ACCELERATING WHILE MOVING MORE DIRECTLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW 020/19.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE AND A LARGER TROUGH OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.  THESE\r\nFEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER KATE GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND EAST...INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSEST TO THE GFS...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND\r\nFASTER...IN PART BECAUSE THAT MODEL INITIALIZED KATE A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE WEST.\r\n\r\nALL DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A TRACK THAT TAKES KATE EAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES\r\nPLACE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 36.1N  55.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 39.8N  53.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 45.6N  49.6W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 52.2N  43.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 57.1N  36.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 61.5N  19.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":45,"Date":"2003-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n\r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF KATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS A LITTLE LESS\r\nTROPICAL. AN EYE IS STILL DISCERNIBLE...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nSPARSE AND LIMITED MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WHILE KATE LOSES ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...AND BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT A DAY OR\r\nLESS.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN\r\nA STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE CROSSING THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nKATE REMAINS ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK...NOW SLIGHTLY FASTER AT\r\n020/21.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE TROUGH OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CANADA THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KATE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND EAST...INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK TO THE EAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE\r\nWEST AND STILL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST TRACK...THEREFORE THAT CLOSE OF\r\nA PASS TO NEWFOUNDLAND SEEMS LESS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SINCE ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS TURN KATE TO THE EAST A BIT LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS CYCLES.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ALL OF THE MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... TAKE\r\nKATE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF KATE IN CASE A WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TAKES\r\nPLACE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 38.1N  54.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 42.1N  52.3W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 48.5N  47.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 55.7N  40.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 58.9N  33.1W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 61.5N  16.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":46,"Date":"2003-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN EYE-FEATURE AT 00Z...BUT\r\nSINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND LESS\r\nDISTINCT. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65\r\nKT FORM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.5/77KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE...KATE IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AS A HURRICANE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE\r\nLIKE A MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/19. KATE IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE\r\nDEEP SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TROUGH\r\nCONTINUING TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND THEN LIFT\r\nOUT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. AS A RESULT...KATE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE TOP OF A LARGE RIDGE\r\nLOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...AND THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nKATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY EVEN BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BEFORE THE 12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD SINCE THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE IN THE\r\nNEXT 6 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITIES WERE HELD HIGHER THAN USUAL\r\nMAINLY DUE TO KATE MOVING AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KT\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 39.5N  53.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 44.3N  50.1W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 50.9N  44.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 56.1N  37.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 58.7N  30.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 61.0N  13.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":47,"Date":"2003-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n\r\nKATE IS STILL MAINTAINING ENOUGH OF A TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES TO WARRANT AT LEAST ANOTHER ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSTILL HAS BANDS OF CONVECTION CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nALTHOUGH ON THE LARGER SCALE IT LOOKS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE.  KATE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING MAINTAINED\r\nAS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO ONLY\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND KATE IS NOW HEADED\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...035/23.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. \r\nKATE...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL COUNTERPART...SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEN...SOME DECELERATION IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE MAXIMUM IN THE WESTERLY\r\nSTEERING CURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT EAST OF\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO...BUT\r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 41.5N  51.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 46.5N  47.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 53.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 57.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 59.0N  25.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 61.0N   8.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":48,"Date":"2003-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n \r\nKATE IS GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COLD AIR CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND A COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE\r\nDEVELOPING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THAT AIR.  HOWEVER...KATE IS\r\nSTILL GENERATING CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C...SO\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NOT YET DEAD AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL 65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60\r\nKT.  KATE SHOULD COMPLETELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 12-24\r\nHR AND CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AS A LARGE AND VIGOROUS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/38.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nKATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHEN...SOME DECELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD\r\nIN THE WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...BUT IS\r\nSIMILAR THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 45.5N  48.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 51.5N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 57.5N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 60.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 61.0N  21.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 61.0N   4.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":49,"Date":"2003-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES KATE HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  COLD AIR\r\nCLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND\r\nBECOME DISORGANIZED.  THIS TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL\r\nCYCLONE PHASE DIAGNOSTICS.  KATE REMAINS QUITE VIGOROUS...AS THERE\r\nHAVE BEEN MULTIPLE SHIP REPORTS OF 50 KT WINDS...AND A DRIFTING\r\nBUOY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 980.1 MB AT 16Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 60 KT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE RAPID MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 025/42.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nKATE SHOULD CONTINUE A RAPID MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEN...SOME DECELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM TURNS EASTWARD\r\nIN THE WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KATE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC\r\nAND AWIPS HEADER HSFAT1.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 49.3N  45.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 55.0N  41.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 59.5N  35.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 61.0N  27.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 61.0N  18.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 61.0N   0.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL EAST OF GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-10-02 00:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCONVECTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING\r\nAROUND THE LOW CENTER.  DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW INDICATE LITTLE OR NO\r\nLOW LEVEL FRONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT REMAINS.  THE WIND FIELD IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF THE LOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR WITH MINIMAL\r\nWIND SHIFTS ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nLOW CAN NOW REASONABLY BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LARRY\r\nSTILL DOES NOT HAVE A PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH A NUMBER OF CONVECTIVELY-GENERATED SWIRLS MOVING\r\nABOUT A BROADER CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON\r\nPEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS GIVEN THE POOR DEFINITION\r\nOF THE CENTER...BUT IS APPROXIMATELY STATIONARY.  LARRY IS\r\nCURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES\r\nTO ITS EAST AND WEST.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WILL\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS\r\nNOT CLEAR THAT LARRY WILL EVER FEEL ITS INFLUENCE.  GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WITH PERHAPS A WESTWARD DRIFT AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE\r\nINNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO DEVELOP SOME BEFORE RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR.  THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN GULF IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...SO IF LARRY STAYS IN ONE\r\nSPOT FOR TOO LONG THIS WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE IS ALSO NOT\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 21.0N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N  95.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LARRY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN\r\nORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING HAS\r\nDEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE MAIN CONVECTION\r\nIS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BROAD CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  AN\r\nANTICYCLONE IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LARRY AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.  THE GFDL FORECASTS LARRY TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE INNER CORE I AM NOT WILLING TO GO THAT FAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  IF LARRY REMAINS STATIONARY FOR LONG THEN UPWELLING\r\nCOULD BECOME A FACTOR IN LIMITING DEVELOPMENT. \r\n\r\nIF ANYTHING...THE CENTER MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE BIT WEST OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS BUT I WILL KEEP THE CENTER STATIONARY TILL A MOTION\r\nBECOMES MORE CLEAR. LARRY IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT LARRY WILL EVER FEEL\r\nITS INFLUENCE. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT LARRY WILL\r\nDRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN RIDGE...WHILE THE CANADIAN\r\nAND ETA MODELS ERODE THE WESTERN RIDGE AND TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD. SHOULD LARRY BEGIN TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nTHAN EXPECTED...THEN IT COULD GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLY CURRENT\r\nAND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...WELL AWAY FROM THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF LARRY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  94.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 21.5N  95.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LARRY IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES AND THE\r\nGIVEN POSITION COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE TROPICAL WITH BANDING FEATURES\r\nPRIMARLY TO THE SOUTH WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE MEASURED\r\nEARLIER. A SHIP IN THE AREA REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 46 KNOTS AT\r\n03Z. THE OUTFLOW IS NOT RESTRICTED AT THIS TIME BUT LARRY LACKS AN\r\nINNER CORE.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED FOLLOWING CONTINUITY.\r\n\r\nLARRY IS MEANDERING AND CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE WITHIN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. MANY OTHER CYCLONES HAVE\r\nREMAINED STATIONARY IN THAT AREA IN THE PAST. BECAUSE THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. IN FACT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nLARRY WILL DISSIPATE IN SITU BUT IN GENERAL THEY SUGGEST SLOW\r\nMOTIONS IN ALL DIRECTIONS. \r\n\r\nANYTHING IS POSSIBLE WITH LARRY BUT MOST LIKELY...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED AND IT COULD WEAKEN IF THE CIRCULATION\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. NEVERTHERLESS...LARRY\r\nCOULD BRING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE ADJACENT COAST OF MEXICO\r\nAND STRONG WINDS TO THE OIL RIGS IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 21.0N  94.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N  95.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF LARRY.  WHILE THE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nCENTER MAY BE A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION...THE CENTER DEFINITION IS SO POOR THAT ANY RELOCATION\r\nWILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR 18Z. \r\nOVERALL...LARRY APPEARS TO HAVE LOST SOME ORGANIZATION...AS THE\r\nCONVECTION IS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN\r\nYESTERDAY.  \r\n\r\nLARRY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES TO\r\nTHE EAST AND WEST...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nRESEMBLE SPOKES ON A WHEEL...ANOTHER SIGN THAT LARRY WILL GO\r\nNOWHERE FAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN\r\nKEEPING LARRY STATIONARY THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN\r\nPOSITION ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE\r\nCENTER.  AFTER 48 HR...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  ONE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE\r\nNEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 96 HR MAY\r\nFORCE LARRY SOUTHWARD.  IF LATER MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS\r\nFRONT AND MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE...LARRY IS\r\nDISORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.  THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY WILL CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LESS INTENSE SHIPS AND MORE INTENSE GFDL.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON REPORTS FROM OIL RIGS IN THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.0N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N  94.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  95.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THEW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nOF LARRY HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nMEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 1500-FT WINDS\r\nOF 66 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.  LARRY IS STRONGER THAN ITS\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE...AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ONLY 35\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nLARRY HAS DRIFTED ERRATICALLY SOUTHWARD SINCE YESTERDAY.  HOW MUCH\r\nOF THIS IS ACTUAL MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS REFORMATION IS NOT\r\nCERTAIN.  THE STORM REMAINS TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS\r\nBETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES...SO ANY MOTION WILL BE SLOW. \r\nGUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW MOTION\r\nBETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST...SO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY\r\nWILL BE CHANGED TO THAT OF A SLOW SOUTHWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nDRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WITH\r\nTHIS SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR JUMPS IN THE POSITION\r\nFROM ADVISORY TO ADVISORY OR AIRCRAFT FIX TO AIRCRAFT FIX.\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LARRY IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED...AND\r\nTHERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW\r\nTHE STORM MAY INTERACT WITH THE MEXICAN COAST IN 24-48 HR...AND\r\nTHUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY CALL FOR LARRY TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL FORECASTS LARRY TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE AND THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER.  IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500-FT\r\nWINDS OF 60 KT WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST...WHICH DECREASED\r\nDRASTICALLY TO 10-20 KT AT THE COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 20.4N  93.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 20.1N  93.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.8N  93.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 19.5N  93.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 19.2N  93.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N  94.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nTHE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT THIS EVENING REMAINS THE 66 KNOTS AT 1500 FT REPORTED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50\r\nKNOTS.  THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A COUPLE OF SHIP AND OIL RIG REPORTS\r\nOF NEAR 50 KNOTS.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN\r\nDEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING NO SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING.  BUT THERE\r\nIS PLENTY OF TIME FOR LARRY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT DRIFTS OVER THE BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE...IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR 20 KNOTS IS NOT TOO MUCH\r\nOF A NEGATIVE FACTOR.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES STRENGTHENING TO\r\nNEAR HURRICANE FORCE BY 72 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 235/02 BASED ON 24 HOURS OF MOTION. \r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 270/04.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nALL SHOW A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 3 DAYS AS THE\r\nSTORM IS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN TWO HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGES.  AFTER 3 DAYS THE MODELS DIVERGE.  THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nARE NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH DAY 5 IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE\r\nNOGAPS MOVES THE STORM ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC BY DAY 4 AND\r\nTHE UKMET MOVES THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AFTER DAY 3. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWING A VERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT WHEN THE MOTION IS NEAR ZERO...THE DIRECTION OF\r\nMOTION BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 20.4N  94.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.2N  94.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 19.9N  94.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 19.6N  94.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 19.2N  94.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.8N  95.1W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N  97.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nCONTINUITY IS USED IN THIS PACKAGE SINCE THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA UNTIL 1200 UTC. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH LARRY. BUT BOTH MICROWAVE DATA AND A RADAR LOOP FROM ALVARADO\r\nMEXICO SHOW A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN\r\nKEPT AT 50 KNOTS UNTIL THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURES THE WINDS LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING. I AM TEMPTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND UNFAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS BUT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EITHER MAINTAINS THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nLARRY CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED WITH LITTLE MOTION IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE. RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE LARRY\r\nTO DRIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.    \r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW BASICALLY LITTLE MOTION. IN FACT...THE GFS KEEPS\r\nA RATHER STRONG CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING ITS\r\nENTIRE 384-HOUR RUN...YES...384-HOUR RUN.  BOTH THE UK MODEL AND\r\nTHE NOGAPS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE OVER LAND BUT MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT THE CANADIAN MODEL KEEPS A\r\nCYCLONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF THE MODEL\r\nSOLUTION...IT APPEARS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL\r\nPERSIST EITHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO OR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. THIS PATTERN WOULD TYPICALLY BRING MOIST AIR FROM THE\r\nPACIFIC RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 20.4N  94.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.4N  94.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N  94.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 19.5N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  94.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  94.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT SHOW THAT LARRY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH.  THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN A LITTLE TO 997 MB...WHILE THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 54 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE WIND\r\nFIELD SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SINCE A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST\r\nDEVELOPED THERE...SO STRONGER WINDS MAY YET BE FOUND.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 235/2.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS LARRY REMAINS TRAPPED IN AN AREA OF\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IS LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT\r\n3-5 DAYS.  MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION BETWEEN\r\nSOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT. \r\nTHIS MOTION SHOULD BE RATHER UNSTEADY...WITH JUMPS IN THE POSITION\r\nOF THE CENTER SUCH AS THE ONE JUST SEEN ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO\r\nRADAR.  ONE POSSIBLE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY\r\nCENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 23N91W.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO\r\nTELL WHAT EFFECT...IF ANY...THIS MIGHT HAVE ON LARRY.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST NOTWITHSTANDING...LARRY CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND UNDER LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nTHIS SHOULD SLOW...BUT LIKELY NOT STOP...DEVELOPMENT.  AS THE STORM\r\nDRIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST...AN INCREASING PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION WILL BE OVER LAND...AND THIS SHOULD ACT AS AN\r\nADDITIONAL NEGATIVE FACTOR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nLARRY TO REACH 60 KT IN 48 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT INTENSITY UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.0N  94.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.7N  94.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N  94.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 19.3N  94.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N  94.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N  94.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N  95.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N  95.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 995 MB AT 17Z...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS THAT WOULD SUPPORT\r\nABOUT 45 KT SURFACE WINDS.  HOWEVER...LARRY HAS INCREASED IN\r\nORGANIZATION IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...AND BASED ON\r\nTHESE MIXED SIGNALS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH THE TOPS ARE WARMING IN THE\r\nCURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM ALVARADO\r\nMEXICO IS BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A VERY UNCERTAIN 235/2.  THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AS LARRY REMAINS TRAPPED IN AN\r\nAREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IS LIKELY TO STAY THAT WAY FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 3-5 DAYS.  MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION\r\nBETWEEN SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL UPDATE THE SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BE RATHER UNSTEADY...WITH\r\nJUMPS IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER.  THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY\r\nCENTER EARLIER SEEN NORTHEAST OF LARRY SEEMS TO BE MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE STORM\r\n\r\nLARRY IS THE NORTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND\r\nTHIS IS EXPOSING THE STORM TO LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING IF PROXIMITY\r\nTO LAND DOES NOT HINDER IT.  A WILD CARD IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS THAT THE SLOW MOTION IS GIVING LARRY TIME TO UPWELL COLD WATER\r\nUNDERNEATH IT.  SHOULD LARRY NOT MOVE...IT WILL EVENTUALLY UPWELL\r\nCOLD ENOUGH WATER TO LITERALLY PUT THE CHILL ON INTENSIFICATION. \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THAT MIGHT TAKE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA AND THE FORECAST PROXIMITY TO LAND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 19.9N  94.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.6N  94.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 19.4N  94.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 19.2N  94.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.9N  94.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 18.4N  94.8W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY WITH THE STORM TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT BETWEEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...BUT MOST AGREE ON A VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ALSO\r\nAGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE WAS NO RECON TONIGHT AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP THE\r\nWIND SPEED AT 50 KNOTS.  THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 60 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A RATHER SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE WITH A SMALL BUT COLD CDO DEVELOPING\r\nOVER THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE VERY COLD BANDING FEATURE FORMING\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT COULD\r\nFIND A STRENGTHENING STORM BEFORE THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD COMPONENT OF DRIFT DURING THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS...IT IS PRUDENT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAND HURRICANE WATCH FROM VERACRUZ TO TUXPAN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 19.8N  94.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.6N  94.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.3N  94.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N  94.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.8N  94.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.1N  95.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PRESENTATION IS A LITTLE\r\nBETTER TONIGHT WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nA CURVED BAND TO THE EAST. THE MAXIMUM WIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nREPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO FAR IS 46 KNOTS. I WAS\r\nTEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT BECAUSE THE PLANE HAS NOT\r\nSAMPLED THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS\r\n994 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  LARRY HAS A\r\nCHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO\r\nFURTHER INTERACT WITH LAND.\r\n\r\nLARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD\r\nOR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING\r\nTHE COAST IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING\r\nLARRY NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 19.4N  94.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 19.3N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.9N  94.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  94.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 18.1N  94.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N  94.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 17.6N  94.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LARRY HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH A BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING\r\nTHE PAST 3 HOURS. SINCE THE CENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED NEAR\r\nOR JUST NORTH OF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOOPS...BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS RECON FIX AND PAST MOTION...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/02...BASED ON A 12-HOUR TREND.\r\nLARRY IS EAST AND SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO. AS THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT\r\nLAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD...THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME\r\nHIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND AND BECOMING MORE\r\nNORTHERLY...ALBEIT STILL RATHER WEAK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE LARRY TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AND MOVE INTO THE ISTHMUS OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARDS...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE GFDL TAKE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER QUICKLY ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHILE THE\r\nREMAINING MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND NOGAPS WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LARRY\r\nOVER MEXICO AND RE-GENERATE A NEW SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO LEFT/EAST OF AND\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAINLY FOLLOWS THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS OF THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE\r\nSIGNALING A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION...NOW THAT THE OUTER\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DISSIPATED. SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LARRY MAKES LANDFALL...AND IT IS \r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT\r\nOR TOMORROW MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 19.3N  93.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 19.0N  93.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N  93.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.9N  93.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.3N  94.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N  94.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 15.5N  95.5W    20 KT...PACIFIC REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N  97.0W    20 KT...PACIFIC REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT LARRY HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n59 KT WAS FOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS\r\n48-KT SURFACE WINDS...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 50\r\nKT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS INCREASED TO 996 MB...WHICH\r\nWOULD SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/03. LARRY MADE A QUICK LURCH TO\r\nTHE SOUTH EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE LAST 3 RECON FIX POSITIONS\r\nCAME IN ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THEREFORE...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE\r\nMOTION OF 3 KT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ALL\r\nOF THE NHC MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON TAKING LARRY\r\nACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC\r\nON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE\r\nBETWEEN THE MODELS IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE LARRY-CIRCULATION\r\nEMERGES OVER THE PACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS JUST EAST OF AND SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE NOGAPS APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR EAST.\r\n \r\nIT NOW APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nWILL OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BURST MAY FIRE\r\nOFF AGAIN TONIGHT AND SPIN UP THE VORTEX JUST A LITTLE BIT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS TIME EXACTLY\r\nWHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE THE POST-LANDFALL CIRCULATION WILL LOOK LIKE\r\nONCE IT RE-EMERGES OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WATER IS QUITE WARM\r\nIN THAT REGION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. IF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER ACTUALLY SURVIVES\r\nTHE TREK ACROSS MEXICO...THEN THE 96- AND 120-HOUR INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS COULD BE TOO LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 18.7N  93.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.3N  93.8W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 17.8N  93.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 17.3N  94.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N  94.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N  94.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW PACIFIC\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 15.0N  96.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW PACIFIC\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N  97.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW PACIFIC\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nLARRY DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BUT SINCE\r\nTHE LAST AIRCRAFT INDICATED WINDS STILL NEAR 50 KNOTS SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.  THE\r\nCENTER IS NOT FAR FROM LAND AND SHOULD BE INLAND IN 12 HOURS...BY\r\nWHICH TIME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED...IF IT HAS\r\nNOT ALREADY DONE SO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 155/03.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nUNANIMOUS ABOUT MOVING LARRY ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER THE PACIFIC\r\nOCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS\r\nMUCH SO AS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM PACIFIC\r\nWATERS AND UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN IF\r\nLARRY WILL SURVIVE THE JOURNEY ACROSS MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 18.5N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 18.1N  93.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  94.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  94.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 15.5N  96.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N  97.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 15.0N  99.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nLARRY IS A SMALL AND TENACIOUS TROPICAL STORM. THREE CONSECUTIVE\r\nFIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCENTER WAS STILL OFFSHORE. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE 996 MB WITH A FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WIND OF 61 KNOTS JUST TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWED A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50\r\nKNOTS BUT LARRY SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.\r\n \r\nLARRY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...IT\r\nSHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPANDS TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS. IF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRRAIN...LARRY COULD REDEVELOP\r\nONCE IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER. IT SHOULD THEN MOVE WESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE HIGH TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 18.4N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N  93.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.0N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 15.5N  94.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N  96.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 15.0N  97.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 15.5N 100.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT LARRY IS FINALLY INLAND...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO RECON OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING TO\r\nCONFIRM THAT.  AN AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND WILL BE IN\r\nTHE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS ARE PROBABLY ONLY OCCURRING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH LARRY WILL BE THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING STORM.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n180/2...AND LARRY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A DAY OR MORE TO CROSS OVER\r\nINTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AS IT MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS.  OTHER GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS\r\nAND THE UKMET...ARE SLOWER.\r\n\r\nSHOULD LARRY REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER\r\nMEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.  HOWEVER...A\r\nNEW NAME WOULD BE GIVEN IF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES AND\r\nTHEN REGENERATES IN THE PACIFIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 18.3N  93.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 17.7N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.9N  93.7W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 15.5N  95.0W    30 KT...OVER PACIFIC WATERS\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  96.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N  98.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Larry","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO FIX THE 850 MB\r\nCENTER OFFSHORE JUST BEFORE 18Z...THEY REPORTED THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER WAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND INLAND.  BY 19Z THE 850 MB\r\nCENTER WAS ALSO INLAND.  A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT DID\r\nREPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO WE NEED TO HANG ON TO LARRY AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM JUST A LITTLE LONGER.  IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO\r\nLOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE AN ERRATIC DRIFT...GENERALLY TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.  THE GUIDANCE IS BECOMING LESS ENTHUSIASTIC\r\nABOUT A RE-EMERGENCE INTO THE PACIFIC...WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE\r\nGFS KEEPING THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OVER LAND.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION...RATHER THAN REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 18.2N  93.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.7N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.1N  94.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.5N  94.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Larry","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LARRY HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO AND HAS ALSO WEAKENED DOWN TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE A BAND OF DEEPER CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED 150-200 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINS WELL ORGANIZED DESPITE BEING INLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 205/03. LARRY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAKEN...\r\nAND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. HOWEVER\r\n...ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE NOW TAKES A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A\r\nBETTER LOOKING 850-500 MB VORTICITY CENTER ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO\r\nTHE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN 36-38 HOURS. I WOULD IMAGINE THAT\r\nINTERMITTENT CONVECTION WOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF THE REMNANTS OF LARRY...AND KEEP THE CIRCULATION FROM COMPLETELY\r\nSPINNING DOWN. AS SUCH...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR\r\nSOME REGENERATION TO OCCUR...IF THE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE VERY\r\nWARM WATERS OF EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. \r\n\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS LARRY OVER LAND DOWN TO 25 KT...THEN\r\nRE-INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS AND\r\nMAKES IT A 95-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS NEAR MANZANILLO. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL...BUT IT ALSO\r\nREGENERATES LARRY BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS BUT PEAKS AT\r\n73 KT IN 96-120 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN 5\r\nKT. OF COURSE...ANY REGENERATION WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT THE\r\nREMANT CIRCULATION COMES BACK OVER WATER OF IF IT STAYS INLAND OVER\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 17.9N  94.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 17.3N  94.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 16.6N  94.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Larry","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LARRY IS BECOMING WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED.  \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nTHE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD REGENERATE...IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CAN MOVE\r\nINTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST REGENERATION...HOWEVER THE LATEST GFDL\r\nMODEL RUN DOES NOT...AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS ARE NOT VERY\r\nEMPHATIC ABOUT REDEVELOPMENT EITHER.  THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE TOO DISRUPTED BY IT PASSAGE OVER THE ISTHMUS\r\nFOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER LAND\r\nTODAY.  EVEN THOUGH LARRY IS DISSIPATING...ITS REMNANTS ARE LIKELY\r\nTO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THEREFORE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nA THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 17.3N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.9N  94.1W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-10-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2003\r\n\r\nCORRECT HEADERS AND BIN NUMBERS...\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE WEATHER SYSTEM\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEAST TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOOON.\r\nIT REPORTED 1004 MB SURFACE PRESSURE AND A 49 KNOT-WIND SPEED ABOUT\r\n40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT REPORT A\r\nCLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE PROXIMITY OF LAND MAY HAVE\r\nPREVENTED DOING SO.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NOT-VERY-IMPRESSIVE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...BUT A 1004 MB SURFACE PRESSURE IS THE MOTIVATION\r\nFOR CALLING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PRESENT.   THE\r\nADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON THE ABOVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nSTORM TURNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nMOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ALSO SHOW THE STORM MERGING WITH THIS TROUGH AND BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 19.2N  69.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 20.2N  70.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.8N  71.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 24.0N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  71.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  67.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 41.0N  55.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  45.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-10-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2003\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AT ABOUT\r\n22Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1002 MB...WITH 54\r\nKT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHIS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 40 KT. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SHOWS THE STRONG CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION HAS DECAYED...SUGGESTING THAT MINDY HAS STOPPED\r\nINTENSIFYING FOR THE MOMENT.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 40\r\nKT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT WELL\r\nDEFINED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nLOW CLOUDS MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10.  WATER VAPOR AND CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MINDY IS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND BROAD AND CONFUSING DEEP\r\nLAYER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER MINDY\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DISPARITIES IN SPEED \r\nCAUSED BY DIFFERENCES IN MODEL FORECASTS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE REGION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED.  MINDY IS CURRENTLY IN A\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR..WHICH\r\nALLOWS FOR THE STRENGTHENING IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE CYCLONE STARTS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nMODELS ARE ISSUING MIXED SIGNALS ON WHETHER MINDY WILL DISSIPATE...\r\nGET ABSORBED BY A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR BECOME THE\r\nFOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND KEEPS MINDY AS A\r\nPOTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM FROM 72-120 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 20.2N  69.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 21.6N  70.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 23.3N  71.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 25.2N  71.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  70.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 41.5N  54.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 44.5N  44.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-10-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE\r\n...VERY DEEP CONVECTION OF CIRCULAR SHAPE HAS REGENERATED NEAR THE\r\nPOSSIBLE SMALL CENTER.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH DATA FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO THAT INDICATED THAT MINDY\r\nWAS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION. I AM NOT\r\nABOUT TO MAKE ANY CHANGES IN TRACK OR INTENSITY SINCE A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AT DAYBREAK.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. MINDY HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE BIT IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE CIRCULATION\r\nMOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nMINDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nABOUT 11 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MINDY WILL FORCE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO INCREASE THE SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINDY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NEVERTHERLESS...MINDY SHOULD BE MOVING NEAR\r\nBERMUDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATE MONDAY.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST THE GUIDANCE BUT HEAVILY BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 21.7N  70.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 23.0N  71.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 25.0N  71.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  71.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 29.5N  68.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 36.5N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 42.5N  51.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 47.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-10-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO\r\nREMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nFORCING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE TROUGH AND MINDY ARE\r\nFORECAST TO COMBINE BY 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH MINDY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER NEAR\r\nBERMUDA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITIONING OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED HIGHEST WINDS OF 41\r\nKNOTS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER AND NOT MUCH NEAR THE CENTER.  WIND\r\nREPORTS FROM GRAND TURK INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THAT ISLAND BETWEEN 11Z AND 12Z BUT WINDS THERE REMAINED BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THERE IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER WHICH APPEARS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAS A TIGHT LITTLE CIRCULATION EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A LARGE\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS THAT IS DETERIORATING.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE WHERE MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MINDY WILL NOT\r\nSURVIVE THE STRONG SHEAR TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 22.2N  71.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 23.8N  72.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.1N  71.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  70.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 30.6N  66.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 37.3N  59.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 43.0N  51.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 47.5N  42.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-10-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO\r\nREMAINS THE SAME...WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nFORCING A NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE TROUGH AND MINDY ARE\r\nFORECAST TO COMBINE BY 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH MINDY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER NEAR\r\nBERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST LEGS OF THIS MORNINGS RECONNAISSANCE MISSION RESULTED IN A\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 36 KNOTS...NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO\r\nGIVE A SURFACE WIND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  BUT SINCE THEN THERE\r\nHAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND\r\nTHE WIND SPEED ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.\r\nTHERE IS ABOUT 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING\r\nMINDY AND THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 23.2N  71.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 24.5N  71.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  70.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 28.5N  68.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 32.0N  64.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 38.0N  56.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 43.0N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 45.0N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-10-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2003\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF MINDY DISAPPEARED INTO A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST JUST\r\nBEFORE SUNSET.  SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN BOTH STRONG\r\nAND PERSISTENT...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED\r\nTO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  HOWEVER...A 23Z\r\nREPORT FROM SHIP WZJD AND LOW-CLOUD LINES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGEST THE CENTER IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.   THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 35 KT.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE\r\nINFORMATION ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF MINDY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10.   MINDY IS WEST\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND IS APPROACHING\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THIS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN 24 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON\r\nTHE TURN...WITH THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS BEING HOW\r\nMUCH ACCELERATION AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE THE\r\nSLOWEST...HAVING THE CYCLONE MISS A CONNECTION WITH A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE UKMET IS MUCH FASTER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE UKMET BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MINDY IS CURRENTLY\r\nIN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THERE ARE\r\nINDICATIONS IN CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE THAT\r\nSTRONGER FLOW IS APPROACHING.  THUS...EVEN AFTER MINDY STARTS\r\nRUNNING WITH THAT FLOW...THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE AND WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nOFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST COULD CAUSE FORCING...WHICH COULD\r\nCOMPENSATE FOR THE SHEAR.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT MINDY COULD\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THAT OPTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. \r\nGIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE\r\nWITH A COMPROMISE...CALLING FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 24.1N  72.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 25.6N  71.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  70.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  62.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 38.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 41.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 43.0N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-10-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF MINDY HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION. RECON FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND MAXIMUM\r\n925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 38 KT ABOUT 75 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THIS WOULD USUALLY EQUATE TO SURFACE WINDS OF 29 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION WAS EAST OF THE CENTER AND\r\nTHE RECON FLIGHT LEGS WERE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST IN\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE AREAS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS EXIST\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER THAT WERE NOT SAMPLED. DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT...BUT JUST BARELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/06. MINDY ACTUALLY MADE A SHARP\r\nJOG TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON THE RECON\r\nPOSITIONS...BUT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nMINDY MAY HAVE FINALLY STARTED TO ROUND THE SHARP EAST-WEST\r\nORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE. AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nTRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO MOVING EASTWARD\r\nAND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MINDY TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE CAPTURING\r\nTHE CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER MINDY IS ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND TURN MORE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY\r\nEVEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT/SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nNOGAPS...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS.\r\n\r\nMINDY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. BY 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE\r\nSOME AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THIS MAY\r\nALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE MINDY GETS\r\nABSORBED BY THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nANY BAROCLINIC EFFECTS WILL BE MINIMAL...SO MINDY IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO DEVELOP INTO A \"POLAR-BOMB\". HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT\r\nMINDY WILL STILL BE VERTICALLY ALIGNED BY 36-48 HOURS...WHICH MAY\r\nALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO REMAIN CONCENTRATED AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 24.3N  72.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 25.9N  71.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 28.0N  68.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 30.5N  64.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  61.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 37.5N  46.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 37.5N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Mindy","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-10-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003\r\n \r\nMINDY IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THERE IS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW CLOUD CENTER WITH THE MAIN\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 90NM TO THE EAST.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE COME DOWN BUT WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM WHETHER\r\nMINDY HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION.  THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER WE ARE ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE THESE SHEARED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO\r\nSURPRISE US.  THIS IS ALSO IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.  MINDY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE\r\nSLIGHTLY IN FORWARD SPEED FOLLOWING A GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST...AS IT RESPONDS TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BYPASS MINDY AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE\r\nIN AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE TRACK TAKES MINDY SOUTH OF BERMUDA...INTERESTS IN\r\nTHE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 25.2N  71.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 26.8N  70.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 28.8N  67.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.6N  64.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  61.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 36.0N  49.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  45.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mindy","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-10-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003\r\n\r\nAS SUSPECTED EARLIER...MINDY NO LONGER HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK WINDS OF 32 KT\r\nAT 1500 FT AND A RATHER FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE VORTEX. \r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND CONTINUES TO\r\nBE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR\r\nWILL RELAX ANY TIME SOON...SO NO RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. \r\nHOWEVER...AS NOTED EARLIER....THESE SHEARED SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN KNOWN\r\nTO SURPRISE US.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE EAST OF NORTH...015/08.  MINDY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE TRACK\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CARRY MINDY NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nGLOBAL MODEL RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MINDY'S\r\nEXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nMINDY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 25.8N  71.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 26.7N  70.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 27.7N  68.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 28.6N  66.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  64.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 32.0N  58.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 35.0N  52.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mindy","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-10-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2003\r\n \r\nMINDY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THERE IS ALMOST NO\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nNOW AT 25 KTS.  HOWEVER...AT 2100 UTC A SHIP WELL TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER REPORTED A 30 KT WIND FROM THE NORTH.  ALSO...THE\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 0132 UTC INDICATED 30 AND 35 KT RAIN CONTAMINATED\r\nWINDS IN THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS THE WINDS ARE LEFT AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THE STEERING SHOULD BE\r\nINFLUENCED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  IN FACT...THE SYSTEM IS NOW\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE EAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS O90/06. THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL\r\nNOT PICK-UP THE SYSTEM AND THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND CONTINUE TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST.  IN THE PAST 12 HOURS THE TWO MODELS THAT HAVE SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT THIS WOULD OCCUR ARE THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAMS.  THESE WILL BE\r\nUSED FOR THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE AND THEY MOVE THE SYSTEM OFF\r\nTOWARD THE EAST AND IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS EAST-NORTHEAST.  THIS\r\nTRACK IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SOMEWHAT\r\nSLOWER.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST 20 KNOTS OF SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THIS COUNTER-ACTS THE 26 TO 28 DEG C WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER.  THUS...SHIPS FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nBE 30 TO 35 KTS FOR 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL KEEPS THE SYSTEM\r\nINVARIANT AT 30 KTS.    \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THIS TRACK LESSENS THE THREAT TO BERMUDA...ALL INTERESTS IN\r\nBERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MINDY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 25.7N  71.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.8N  70.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 25.9N  68.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 25.9N  66.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 26.3N  64.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 27.2N  61.6W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 28.7N  58.3W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 31.0N  54.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mindy","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-10-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2003\r\n \r\nMINDY REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...AS INDICATED BY THE LACK OF ANY\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER. MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION MORE THAN 60 NMI EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...AND SATELITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED\r\nACCORDINGLY DOWN TO T1.5/25 KT. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED 25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS AND 35 KT\r\nRAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS...SO I HAVE DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE\r\nAND KEEP MINDY AT A GENEROUS 30-KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/09. MINDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE THROUGH THAT IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EAST TO NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE LONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH\r\nTAKES MINDY QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION AND\r\nDEVELOPS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM NEAR BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nAMPLIFICATION IN THE FLOW PATTERN TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF\r\nMINDY...SO THE NOGAPS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. THE REST OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON KEEPING MINDY MOVING\r\nEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM\r\nMODELS...AND THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nMINDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER AT LEAST 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING. AFTER THAT...IF THE CYCLONE STILL\r\nEXISTS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT MINDY COULD REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STRENGTH AGAIN.\r\nHOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE\r\nWEST AND NORTHWEST WOULD LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM BECOMING\r\nMUCH MORE THAN A 35-40 KT SYSTEM...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE THREAT TO BERMUDA HAS BEEN MINIMIZED SINCE MINDY REMAINS A WEAK\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD...AND IS FORECAST\r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 25.7N  69.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 25.8N  68.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 25.9N  66.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 26.2N  64.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 26.9N  62.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 29.0N  58.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 30.0N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 30.5N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mindy","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-10-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY-ORGANIZED CIRCULATION...\r\nAT BEST.  DEEP CONVECTION SHOWS A MORE LINEAR...RATHER THAN CURVED\r\nBAND...ORGANIZATION...RESEMBLING A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nFROM 10Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 25 KT IN AN OPEN TROUGH...\r\nHOWEVER THE SCATTEROMETER CAN HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CAPTURING SUCH A\r\nWEAK AND SMALL CIRCULATION.  THE ADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON THE\r\nLOCATION OF A VERY SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...DISPLACED WELL TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE HEAVY SHOWER ACTIVITY.  AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE\r\nSCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 18Z CENTER FIX...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nAPPEARANCE OF MINDY THEY MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY IN CLOSING OFF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.   BECAUSE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SO ILL-DEFINED...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS DISSIPATION WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOVEMENT REMAINS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MINDY IS\r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. PRIOR TO THE\r\nPREDICTED DISSIPATION...THE CURRENT TPC/NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 25.8N  68.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 26.0N  67.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 27.2N  62.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mindy","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-10-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PRETTY\r\nMUCH ON OUR TRACK...SO WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE TIME\r\nBEING.  HOWEVER...MINDY'S PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES IS NOT A\r\nVERY TROPICAL ONE.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY IN A\r\nNORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...\r\nGIVING THE SYSTEM A FRONT-LIKE APPEARANCE.  MAXIMUM WINDS OF 34 KT\r\nWERE REPORTED AT THE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...IN A VERY SMALL AREA IN\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BAND WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS REDUCES TO\r\nABOUT 27 KT AT THE SURFACE.  STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS NON-TROPICAL MUCH\r\nLONGER...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD STEER MINDY ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 26.1N  67.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 26.5N  66.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 27.1N  63.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 28.0N  61.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Mindy","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-10-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003\r\n \r\nNANO NANO...NANO NANO...HEY HEY...GOODBYE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nEVENING INDICATES MINDY IS A MERE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE\r\nEXPOSED CENTER BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP\r\nFRONTAL-LOOKING CONVECTION TO THE EAST.  MINDY IS DEGENERATING INTO\r\nA NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nDRY ENVIRONMENT...THIS SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/5...CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE AS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS GETTING LEFT BEHIND AS THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES MORE RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE\r\nREMNANTS OF MINDY IS SLOWER THAN AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/COBB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 26.0N  67.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 26.2N  66.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 26.5N  65.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-10-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE\r\nNEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...AND DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE NOW A CONSENSUS 2.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\nTHEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE...BUT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF SOME\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NOT VERY BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING...AND IS BELOW THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT IS VERY RARE FOR A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE A FULL TRANSIT OF THE DEEP TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC THIS LATE IN THE SEASON.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nTAKES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN GET AS FAR WEST AS SHOWN HERE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z  9.6N  38.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z  9.8N  39.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 10.0N  41.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 10.4N  42.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 10.8N  43.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 11.5N  45.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 13.5N  49.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-10-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2003\r\n \r\nNEITHER INFRARED NOR MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLEAR CENTER\r\nPOSITION THIS EVENING...WHILE A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z SUGGESTS A\r\nBROAD AND EAST-WEST-ELONGATED CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION ARE LARGELY BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE IMPROVEMENT IN\r\nORGANIZATION...AS THE CENTER REMAINS WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...THE QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD\r\nBE AS HIGH AS 30 KT.  WITH CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AS\r\nWELL...THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE 18Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nNOT MAKE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS WEAKNESS WILL BE\r\nREINFORCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 45 DEGREES WEST THAT IS\r\nDIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE CANADIAN MODEL ALLOWS THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nESCAPE THIS WEAKNESS AND GET FARTHER WEST...BUT THIS MODEL IS\r\nALREADY TOO FAR WEST WITH THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL\r\nSHOWS MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN EITHER THE GFS...UKMET...OR NOGAPS\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL MODEL...WHICH RECURVES THE SYSTEM NEAR 45W.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nCONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  GIVEN THIS AND THE POOR CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z  9.9N  39.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 10.0N  40.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 10.4N  41.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 11.0N  42.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 11.5N  42.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 12.0N  43.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 13.0N  44.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N  44.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-10-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. WHILE\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CONVECTION HAVING\r\nDEVELOPED CLOSER AND POSSIBLY OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/08 IS BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS 6-HR MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK. THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD ALL OVER THE COMPASS IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THE MODELS AND\r\nTAKES THE DEPRESSION ALMOST DUE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD FROM\r\nITS CURRENT POSITON...WHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY AND WAS THEREFORE\r\nIGNORED. THE GFS MODEL DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A BOGUS TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN 36-48 HOURS TO THE EAST OF TD-19...WHICH ACTS TO PULL THE\r\nDEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS UNLIKELY SCENARIO\r\nWAS ALSO DISCOUNTED. THE REMAINING MODEL GUIDANCE CONSISTS OF THE\r\nUKMET AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH TAKE TD-19 NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS\r\nCURRENT POSTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THEN TURN IT SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD AFTER THAT. THE THREE BAM MODELS AND THE LBAR MODEL TAKE\r\nTD-19 BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE FUTURE TRACK OF TD-19\r\nDEPENDS HEAVILY ON WHAT EFFECT THE DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL\r\nHAVE ON THE NARROW AND WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN\r\nSTEERING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALREADY ALONG\r\nTHE SAME LONGITUDE AS TD-19 AND IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nEASTWARD...PERHAPS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. AS SUCH... THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nA BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE BAM MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE CANADIAN MODEL MAINTAINS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AND HAS TD-19 NEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\nIN 120 HOURS. THIS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE FORECAST POSSIBILITY IF\r\nTHE CYCLONE DOES NOT MOVED NORTHWARD BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nON THE DEPRESSION THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...SO ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nWELL BELOW THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS...WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE UP TO\r\n72 KT IN 72 HOURS AND 95 KT IN 60 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 10.1N  40.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 10.4N  41.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 10.9N  43.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 11.4N  44.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 12.0N  45.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 13.0N  45.7W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-10-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003\r\n\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN LACKS BANDING FEATURES...AND THE LOW-CLOUD\r\nCIRCULATION IS STILL RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED.  THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL\r\nVORTEX OR VORTMAX JUST WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...\r\nWHICH APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE BROADER CIRCULATION. \r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOW SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST\r\nIS NOT HIGH.\r\n\r\nMY BEST GUESS FOR INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  THERE IS A VERY WEAK\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...AND MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nMODEL'S PREDICTED WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nEAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS.\r\n\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 50W.  THIS RIDGE COULD BLOCK\r\nTHE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 10.8N  41.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.3N  42.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 11.9N  43.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 12.6N  44.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 13.3N  44.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N  45.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-10-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003\r\n\r\nON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CYCLONE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\n...HOWEVER THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES...THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY COLD TOPS OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...IN A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING PATTERN.  LATEST DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE ITCZ AND WE WOULD LIKE IT TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE ISOLATED\r\nAND/OR SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED BEFORE UPGRADING TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED\r\nBY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE INTENSITY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON LOCATION.  IF\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST...THE SHEAR WILL LIKELY\r\nBE STRONGER RESULTING IN A WEAKER SYSTEM.  IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nMOVES ALONG A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN EXPECTED....IT SHOULD\r\nEXPERIENCE LESS SHEAR AND PROBABLY GET STRONGER.  IT IS OF INTEREST\r\nTO NOTE THAT...SINCE 1900...THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY 7 HURRICANES TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...I.E. IN THE DEEP TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC...DURING THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WNW...285/9.  THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACK FORECASTS. \r\nTHE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL GET CAUGHT UNDER\r\nTHE EASTERN END OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELL AND MOVE ON A\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDN...WHICH IS DERIVED FROM THE NOGAPS INITIAL FIELD...SHOW A\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND THIS SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE MOST RECENT GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE TRACKS.  NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE'S NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE BLOCKED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nHIGH BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 11.2N  42.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 11.7N  43.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N  44.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N  44.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 14.2N  45.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N  46.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N  47.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N  47.5W    65 KT \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2030Z CONTAINED A NUMBER OF\r\n30 KT VECTORS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS. SINCE IT IS QUITE\r\nLIKELY THAT THE WINDS WITHIN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION ARE SOMEWHAT\r\nHIGHER...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nNICHOLAS...THE 14TH NAMED STORM OF THE YEAR. SINCE 1900...ONLY SIX\r\nSEASONS HAVE PRODUCED MORE STORMS THAN 2003...AND THERE ARE STILL\r\nSIX WEEKS LEFT IN THE SEASON. NICHOLAS IS MAINTAINING VERY COLD\r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THIS CONVECTION\r\nSTILL SHOWS LITTLE OR NO BANDING STRUCTURE. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS WEB PAGE SHOWS NICHOLAS IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WESTERLY WIND SHEAR.  SOME WESTERLY OR\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER NICHOLAS...BUT THIS IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO PREVENT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9.  NICHOLAS IS SOUTH OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES BUT WILL SOON BE SEPARATING\r\nFROM THIS FEATURE.  WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THERE IS AN INTERESTING SPLIT IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE SIMPLER STATISTICAL AND BAM MODELS SHOWING A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BENEATH THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE MODELS WITH MORE COMPLEX\r\nPHYSICS ARE FORECASTING IMMEDIATE SLOWING WITH A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  I AM NOT SURE I UNDERSTAND WHY THE MODELS ARE SPLIT IN\r\nTHIS FASHION.  THE WESTERLY SHEAR AND CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF\r\nCONVECTION WOULD TEND TO SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED AND DRAG THE TRACK\r\nTO THE RIGHT...BUT I CANNOT SAY THAT THIS IS WHAT THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE TRYING TO DO WITH NICHOLAS.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION IN THESE\r\nMODELS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH THE\r\nAPPROACH OF A SECOND MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 60W.  IN\r\nANY EVENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW A\r\nGFS/UKMET/GFDL CONSENSUS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...NICHOLAS MAY FIND ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS BLOCKED BY\r\nWHATEVER REMAINS OF THE RIDGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 11.6N  42.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 12.2N  43.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 13.1N  44.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.0N  45.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N  49.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nAND CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL TO AS LOW -85C. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO PLACE AND THIS HAS HAD AN IMPACT ON\r\nBOTH THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND THE FORECAST TRACK. A 15/0218Z TRMM\r\nOVERPASS CLEARLY INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK. USING THE TRMM\r\nPOSITION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD PLACE THE\r\nCENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE COLD CLOUD SHIELD. BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB HAVE A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT BASED\r\nON A SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE CENTER FARTHER EAST INTO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE ADVISORY POSITION\r\n...THEN THAT WOULD YIELD A LOWER DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.0/45 KT...\r\nWHICH IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/9. THERE ARE SOME RECENT\r\nSATELLITE INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE NEARLY HALF\r\nA DEGREE LATITUDE FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE\r\nANY RADICAL CHANGES TO THE POSITION OR FORECAST TRACK AT NIGHT DUE\r\nTO THE UNCERTAINLY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM LOCATION AND EXTRAPOLATED INITIAL\r\nPOSITION REQUIRES THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BE ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT FROM\r\nTHE OUTSET. IT SEEMS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING VERY\r\nWELL THE UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE THAT LIES TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS ZONE\r\nOF SUBSIDENCE HAS BEEN SLIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND HAS LIKELY\r\nBEEN KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BENEATH IT STRONGER THAN THE\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. BASED ON THAT ASSUMPTION...THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL WAS IGNORED SINCE IT TAKES NICHOLAS ALMOST DUE NORTH FROM THE\r\nOUTSET. THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS SIMILARLY TAKE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS INITIAL POSITION...WHICH ALSO SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY GIVEN THE PAST 24 HOURS OF WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND\r\nTHE SHARP RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THAT THOSE MODELS HAVE HAD. THE UKMET\r\nSEEMS TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...ALTHOUGH\r\nIT INITIALIZED NICHOLAS AT LEAST 60 NMI TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST AT\r\n00Z. THE BAM MODELS...ON THE OTHER HAND...HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY\r\nCONSISTENT THE PAST 36 HOURS AND HAVE THE BETTER ERROR STATISTICS\r\nSO FAR. SURPRISINGLY...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT...ONCE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF\r\nNICHOLAS IN 36-48 HOURS...A MUCH STRONGER EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE\r\nWILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT BACK WESTWARD.\r\nTHE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH WILL NICHOLAS MOVE BEFORE THE\r\nWESTWARD TURN BEGINS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE BAM MODELS CONSENSUS...WITH A LITTLE MORE\r\nWEIGHT PLACED ON THE UKMET MODEL SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nNICHOLAS IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT AXIS...WHICH HAS\r\nALLOWED THE OUTFLOW AND OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO IMPROVE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. WITH NICHOLAS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN AT A LOWER LATITUDE AND UNDER FAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THAN HAS BEEN\r\nINDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS ACTUALLY FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THEN\r\nNICHOLAS COULD UNDERGO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND EVEN\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND\r\nTHE STRONGER GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 11.9N  43.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N  44.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N  45.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N  46.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.7N  47.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 16.9N  48.2W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N  49.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N  51.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2003\r\n\r\nNICHOLAS IS GIVING MIXED SIGNALS THIS MORNING.  ON ONE SIDE...\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS FORMING A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST WITH AN OUTER BAND AND AN OUTFLOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER...ANIMATION AND A 1041Z SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nOVERCAST...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO WESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. \r\nIF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE OVERCAST THE CYCLONE COULD BE\r\nSTRONGER...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CENTER COULD REFORM UNDER\r\nTHE CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY...295/7. \r\nNICHOLAS IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N52W\r\nSANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION NEAR 27N36W AND A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL TEMPORARILY\r\nWEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF NICHOLAS IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY\r\nREBUILDING RIDGING NORTH OF THE STORM AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES IN\r\n48-72 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD...WITH\r\nTHE GFS...NOGAPS...AND GFDL SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 24\r\nHR...THE UKMET SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NHC98 AND\r\nBAMM SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  BASED ON CURRENT\r\nTRENDS...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND GFDL TURN NICHOLAS TOO MUCH INTO\r\nTHE RIDGE...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN TOWARD THE\r\nMIDDLE-OF-THE-ROAD UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR NOW AFFECTING\r\nNICHOLAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HR AS A\r\nSYNTOPIC-SCALE ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE CYCLONE.  SHOULD THIS\r\nVERIFY...IT WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 72 HR SHOULD LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 11.9N  43.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.5N  44.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.5N  46.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N  47.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N  48.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N  49.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORM IS\r\nMAINTINING AN ATTEMPT AT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BAND TO\r\nTHE EAST...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE IS LARGER THAN 6 HR\r\nAGO.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE ANTICYCLONE...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL ON\r\nTHE WEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  HOWEVER...THE SEPARATION\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO IS SMALLER THAN THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND HAVE INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT AT AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...ALTHOUGH\r\nNICHOLAS COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/7.  NICHOLAS REMAINS SOUTH OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N50W BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER CIRCULATION NEAR\r\n26N35W AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL\r\nWEAKEN THE RIDGE NORTH OF NICHOLAS IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY\r\nA REBUILDING RIDGE AFTER THE SHORTWAVE PASSES IN 48-72 HR.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SHOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD... WITH THE GFS...\r\nNOGAPS...AND GFDL SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR...THE\r\nUKMET SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NHC98 AND BAMM\r\nSHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS...THE\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...AND GFDL TURN NICHOLAS TOO QUICKLY INTO THE RIDGE. \r\nHOWEVER...ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE WEAKER WITH THE REBUILDING\r\nTHAN EARLIER...SO THE FORECAST TRACK SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN\r\nTHE UKMET AND OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THE GREATEST DIFFERENCE\r\nBETWEEN THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS TRACKS IS A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION\r\nNOW FORECAST AFTER 120 HR.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR NOW AFFECTING\r\nNICHOLAS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FOR 48-72 HR AS A SYNTOPIC-SCALE\r\nANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE CYCLONE.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY...IT WOULD\r\nALLOW STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AFTER 72 HR SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE\r\nSTRONGER GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A\r\nSEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 12.4N  44.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.0N  45.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.1N  46.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.3N  47.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.4N  47.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N  48.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N  49.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2003\r\n \r\nIF ANYTHING...NICHOLAS LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...\r\nWITH THE DEEP CONVECTION LOOKING A LITTLE STRUNG OUT TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE PASSES STILL SHOW AN ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED\r\nFROM 6 HOURS AGO AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AS\r\nWELL. \r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT HEADING MAY BE \r\nSTARTING TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LIES\r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NICHOLAS...BUT THIS RIDGE MAY SOON BE\r\nERODED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A GENERALLY SLOW AND NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  WITH SUCH WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS IN A LARGELY DATA-VOID REGION...IT IS NOT\r\nSURPRISING THAT THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE SIMPLE-PHYSICS MODELS...ALONG WITH THE UKMET...CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND\r\nNOGAPS FORECAST A MOSTLY NORTHWARD TRACK.  SURPRISINGLY...THE\r\nSIMPLER MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING THE BETTER JOB SO FAR...BUT WITH A\r\nPOSSIBLE RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK BEGINNING THIS MAY BE ABOUT TO\r\nCHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE\r\nBETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A LITTLE LESS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR NOW THAN THERE WAS 24\r\nHOURS AGO...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  NICHOLAS SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 72 HR SHOULD LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND NOW CALLS FOR LITTLE INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHE GFDL STILL MAKES NICHOLAS A HURRICANE BUT IT TOO IS TRENDING\r\nDOWNWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 12.9N  45.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.8N  45.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.9N  46.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N  47.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N  49.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS SEEMS TO BE TRANSITIONING FROM A SHEARED CONVECTIVE BLOB\r\nSYSTEM TO ONE WITH MORE CURVED BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE\r\nSTILL APPEARS TO BE SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER...BUT THIS HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND\r\nMOVING AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM ALL\r\nTHREE AGENCIES...BUT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SOME SINCE\r\nTHE 06Z FIXES. ALSO...A 16/0300Z PARTIAL TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE INNER-CORE HAS TIGHTNED UP CONSIDERABLY...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE PAST 4 MICROWAVE\r\nPOSITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE DEEPER\r\nCONVECTION NOW...SO THE THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nQUITE DIVERGENT...WITH THE GFDN AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKING NICHOLAS\r\nALMOST DUE NORTH FROM THE OUTSET. THESE ARE THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL\r\nTHE MODELS AND WERE DISCOUNTED. THE GFDL..GFS...AND UKMET MODELS\r\nARE CONSISTENT THROUGH 36 HOURS IN TAKING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST. AFTER THAT...THEY ALSO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE\r\nGFDL AND GFS FORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nMAINTAINS A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE UKMET SOLUTION\r\nWAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED GIVEN THAT MODEL'S GOOD PERFORMANCE THE PAST\r\n48 HOURS...AND THE FACT THAT ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SOME\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF NICHOLAS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE\r\nMOST FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE EXCEPTION IS THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A\r\nSMALL ANTICYCLONE ABOVE NICHOLAS THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MUCH WEAKER SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND\r\nTHE STRONGER 86-KT GFDL MODEL. IF THE UKMET TRACK AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW PATTERN FORECASTS VERIFY...THEN NICHOLAS WILL PROBABLY BE\r\nSTRONGER AT 72-96 HOURS THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 13.3N  45.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.1N  46.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 15.3N  47.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 16.3N  48.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.3N  48.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING AS THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS AFFECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE OUTFLOW\r\nANTICYCLONE SEEN YESTERDAY IS LESS IMPRESSIVE LOOKING TODAY...\r\nALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS STILL GOOD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE NICHOLAS IS SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH/SHEAR AXIS ALONG 21N51W-12N61W CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR NICHOLAS.  TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS\r\nCOMPLEX BALANCE OF STEERING FLOWS WITH A SPREAD.  THE NHC98UK AND\r\nBAMS FORECAST CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE NOGAPS...\r\nGFDN...AND LBAR CALL FOR A NORTHEASTWARD TURN.  THE OTHER\r\nMODELS ARE IN BETWEEN.  GIVEN THE SHEARED STATE OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nAND THAT THE NOGAPS HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD BIAS ON THIS\r\nSTORM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  NICHOLAS WILL LIKELY\r\nTURN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AS THE CURRENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE PUSHES EASTWARD...THEN TURN A BIT BACK TO THE\r\nLEFT IN ABOUT 36 HR AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSES TO THE\r\nNORTH.  ANOTHER BEND TO THE RIGHT IS POSSIBLE AFTER 72 HR AS\r\nNICHOLAS MAKES CONTACT WITH THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF 20N.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW NEAR NICHOLAS...RANGING FROM THE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONE OF THE\r\nUKMET TO THE LESS FAVORABLE LOOK OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN.  THE GFS\r\nAND CANADIAN APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FLOW...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON THEIR SHEAR FORECASTS.  THESE\r\nMODELS FORECAST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR FOR 24-36 HR...AND\r\nSTRONG SHEAR N OF 20N LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR 24-36 HR OF SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IT WILL ALSO CALL FOR\r\nTHE START OF A WEAKENING TREND AFTER 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 13.8N  46.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.8N  47.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 15.9N  47.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 16.7N  48.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N  49.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 20.0N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE NEAR NICHOLAS THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS SHOW A MORE SOUTHERLY THAN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYLONE OVER THE STORM LOOKS MORE HEALTHY THAN 6 HR AGO. \r\nNICHOLAS HAS RESPONDED TO THIS BY CHANGING FROM A SHEAR PATTERN TO\r\nA CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 55\r\nKT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 310/7.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE NICHOLAS IS SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES OF RIDGES AND TROUGHS IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20N...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH/SHEAR AXIS FROM 21N52W TO A VORTEX NEAR 11N62W.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RESPOND TO THIS COMPLEX BALANCE OF STEERING\r\nFLOWS WITH A SPREAD...WITH MANY OF THE SAME OUTLIERS AS 6 HR AGO.\r\nTHE BIGGEST CHANGES IS THAT THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET FORECAST A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  UNTIL THIS TREND IS\r\nCONFIRMED BY SUBSEQUENT RUNS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW\r\nA MAJOR SHIFT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR NICHOLAS.  THE LESS-FAVORABLE LOOKING GFS\r\nAND CANADIAN APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FLOW...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON THEIR SHEAR FORECASTS.  THESE\r\nMODELS FORECAST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR FOR 24-36 HR...AND\r\nSTRONG SHEAR N OF 20N LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR 24-36 HR OF SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IT WILL ALSO CALL FOR\r\nTHE START OF A WEAKENING TREND AFTER 96 HR.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS STRONGER THAN THAT OF SHIPS...BUT WEAKER THAN THAT OF THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 14.4N  47.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.3N  47.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 16.4N  48.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 17.3N  49.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N  49.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  52.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE ON IR OR NIGHT-VIS\r\nIMAGERY...THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE NICHOLAS HAS BEEN MOVING TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  ANALYSIS OF THE 21Z\r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES STRONGLY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS NOT\r\nUNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT RATHER IS NEAR OR BEYOND ITS\r\nSOUTHWEST EDGE.  A MICROWAVE PASS...ALSO AT 21Z...IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THIS LOCATION.  IF THIS ANALYSIS IS CORRECT...THEN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS RE-ASSERTING ITSELF AND NICHOLAS IS NOT AS\r\nWELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 300/8 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE FOR NICHOLAS OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND HOW THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO THE SHEAR WILL\r\nDETERMINE BOTH THE INTENSITY AND THE TRACK.  THE SHEAR SHOULD BE\r\nLOWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL\r\nSHOWS NICHOLAS REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER... TOWARDS THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY TO EITHER\r\nTAKE A STRONGER SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...OR LEAVE A\r\nSHEARED SYSTEM BEHIND ON A MORE WESTERLY PATH.  THE FORMER OPTION\r\nIS REPRESENTED BY THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATTER BY THE SHALLOW AND\r\nMEDIUM BAM AND THE GFS.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT NICHOLAS WILL\r\nOSCILLATE BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH\r\nSHORT-TERM VARIATIONS IN THE SHEAR AND DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BY VIRTUE OF THE SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT\r\nIS OTHERWISE SIMILAR.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST... ESPECIALLY BY\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...IS NOT REAL HIGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 14.5N  47.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 15.4N  48.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 16.4N  49.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 17.2N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  54.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPINGING\r\nON THE STORM...YET A COLD CDO FEATURE PERSISTS AND...ALONG WITH SOME\r\nBANDING...RESULTS IN DVORAK WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES.  THIS IS NO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nSHIPS FORECASTS GRADUAL WEAKENING FRO 120 HOURS WITH LOTS OF\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENING SOME AFTER 48 HOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL\r\nSUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING 65 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BACKS OFF 5 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 12\r\nHOURS TO AGREE MORE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE ON INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY.  EARLIER ANALYSES PLACED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT POSITION\r\nESTIMATE IS BASED ON THE SAME PROCEDURE AND GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 310/07.  THE GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.  THE GFS\r\nAND UKMET CONTINUE TO  SHOW A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 120\r\nHOURS WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION.  WHICH FORECAST IS CORRECT DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY WITH A\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE HAVING MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LIKE THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO GET CLOSER TO A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE MODELS BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nWIND SPEED RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 15.0N  48.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.9N  48.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 16.8N  49.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 17.6N  49.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 18.4N  50.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 19.3N  51.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N  52.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  53.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NICHOLAS IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING...WITH A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND SOME OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0952Z SHOWED LINEAR\r\nCONVECTION IN THE OVERCAST AND A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE UNANIMOUSLY\r\nINCREASED TO 65 KT.  GIVEN THE MICROWAVE DATA...NICHOLAS WILL\r\nREMAIN A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME WITH 60 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/8.  VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nAND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF NICHOLAS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nALONG 41W/42W S OF 22N...AND A STREAM OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND\r\nRIDGES IN THE WESTERLIES N OF 21N W OF 44W.  THIS COMPLEX PATTERN\r\nIS PRODUCING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS TO THIS BY GENERALLY FORECASTING A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS THAN 24 HR AGO...AS THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL\r\nOUTLIERS SUCH AS THE EASTWARD LBAR AND THE WESTWARD BAMS.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF NICHOLAS HAS A WELL-DEFINED WIND\r\nMAXIMUM ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY.  THIS WIND BAND IS CURRENTLY\r\nCLOSE TO NICHOLAS AND IS CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE FUTURE\r\nINTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE THE STORM STAYS TO THE WIND MAXIMUM. \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO MOVE WESTWARD...WHICH COULD\r\nFORCE THE WIND MAXIMUM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CREATE A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...ESPECIALLY IF\r\nNICHOLAS MOVES SLOWER THAN FORECAST.  CONVERSELY...IF THE STORM\r\nMOVES FASTER THAN FORECAST...IT WOULD REMAIN IN STRONGER SHEAR. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR...WHICH SEEMINGLY DOES NOT\r\nMATCH EITHER CURRENT TRENDS OR THE MODEL UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nFORECASTS.  THE LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nLITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME DECREASE IN THE\r\nSHEAR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR AS NICHOLAS ENCOUNTERS\r\nSTRONGER WESTERLIES ALONG AND NORTH OF 20N.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 16.0N  48.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.9N  48.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.7N  49.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 18.4N  49.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 19.1N  50.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 20.0N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  52.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  53.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003\r\n\r\nAFTER ALMOST LOOKING LIKE A HURRICANE THIS MORNING...NICHOLAS HAS\r\nWEAKENED A LITTLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EXPOSED FOR A TIME BEFORE BEING COVERED BY\r\nTHE LATEST BURST OF CONVECTION.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...THIS IS BASED MAINLY ON CONSTRAINTS FROM\r\nTHE EARLIER ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS INCREASED ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS A BIT DECEIVING AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW AND CAUSING SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN OF THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  NICHOLAS IS CAUGHT IN A COMPLEX PATTERN OF SURROUNDING\r\nWEATHER SYSTEMS THAT COMBINE TO PRODUCE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS GREATER SPREAD THAN 6 HR AGO.  AMONGST THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...THE UKMET AND GFS FORECAST A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST...THE GFDL FORECASTS A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH...THE NOGAPS CALLS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN...AND THE GFDN CALLS FOR NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE KEY FACTOR IN THE SPREAD SEEMS TO BE THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE STORM...AS THE STRONGER THE STORM IS IN THE MODEL\r\nTHE FARTHER EAST IT GOES.  SINCE THE GFS AND UKMET APPEAR TOO WEAK\r\nWITH NICHOLAS...AND THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE APPEARS TOO\r\nSTRONG...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF NICHOLAS HAS A WELL-DEFINED WIND\r\nMAXIMUM ALONG ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY.  THIS WIND BAND IS\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF NICHOLAS.  THE FUTURE INTENSITY\r\nDEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE THE STORM STAYS TO THE WIND MAXIMUM.\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO MOVE WESTWARD...WHICH COULD\r\nFORCE THE WIND MAXIMUM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CREATE A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...ESPECIALLY IF\r\nNICHOLAS MOVES SLOWER THAN FORECAST.  CONVERSELY...IF THE STORM\r\nMOVES FASTER THAN FORECAST...IT WOULD REMAIN IN STRONGER SHEAR.\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SHEAR NICHOLAS WILL FACE...AND\r\nTHAT IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR NICHOLAS TO STRENGTHEN MORE IF THE\r\nSHEAR DOES NOT DECREASE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED TO THAT\r\nOF A STEADY-STATE 55 KT FOR 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...NICHOLAS WILL\r\nLIKELY ENTER STRONGER SHEAR NORTH OF 20N AND WEAKEN. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 16.4N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 17.1N  48.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 17.9N  49.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 18.6N  50.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 19.2N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N  51.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  52.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N  54.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2003\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nNICHOLAS REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nCURRENT DVORAK T-NUMBER WIND EQUIVALENTS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 65...55...AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS DID\r\nNOT CONTAIN ANYTHING TO SUGGEST THAT NICHOLAS HAS STRENGTHENED...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS IMPRESSIVE...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES\r\nTO UNDERCUT THIS OUTFLOW.\r\n\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/5...IT APPEARS THAT NICHOLAS\r\nHAS SLOWED AND TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT.  NICHOLAS REMAINS TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MAY\r\nALREADY BE STARTING TO BLOCK ITS MOTION.  EMBEDDED WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES...NICHOLAS WILL MOVE MORE NORTHWARD WHEN IT CAN STAY\r\nWELL-CONNECTED VERTICALLY...AND MORE WESTWARD WHEN IT SHEARS.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT DIMINISH\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN INCREASE NEAR\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS TAKING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM SHARPLY\r\nWESTWARD AND THE GFDL TAKING A HURRICANE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. \r\nTHE UKMET...WHICH HAS OUTPERFORMED THE OTHER MODELS WITH\r\nNICHOLAS...IS IN BETWEEN BUT GENERALLY FAVORS THE WEAK AND WEST\r\nOPTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET\r\nAND THE SHALLOW BAM...AND CALLS FOR A TRACK THAT GRADUALLY TURNS TO\r\nTHE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED\r\nBELOW...NICHOLAS COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO IF THE SHEAR WERE TO UNEXPECTEDLY DIMINISH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 16.7N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 17.4N  48.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 18.2N  49.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 18.8N  49.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 19.5N  50.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  52.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  53.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 21.5N  55.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-10-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...BUT\r\nALSO IS MAINTAINING A COLD CDO AND BANDING AS WELL AS GOOD OUTFLOW\r\nALOFT.  DVORAK T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...BUT STILL\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFOR SLOW WEAKENING UNDER CONTINUED STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOLLOWING\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS FORECASTING\r\nNICHOLAS TO A HURRICANE.  \r\n\r\nIT HARD TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES\r\nSHOW A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN.  THE STORM IS\r\nLOCATED BY ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n340/05.\r\n\r\nTHE GFS MODEL KEEPS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF NICHOLAS AND SHOWS A\r\nSLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR 120 HOURS.  THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A\r\nSIMILAR BEHAVIOR.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A SLOW\r\nMOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION WITH THE RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS\r\nVIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD FROM NORTH\r\nAMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE OF THE\r\nWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD SCENARIOS MOVING THE STORM SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 17.3N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 17.9N  48.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 18.4N  49.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N  49.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.6N  50.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 20.6N  51.6W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  53.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N  54.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-10-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003\r\n \r\nIN A BIT OF A SUNRISE SURPRISE...MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE\r\nCENTER OF NICHOLAS IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION.  THE CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nEXPOSED AS MODERATE/STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS\r\nDISRUPTED THE CDO PATTERN SEEN EARLIER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB...AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE CURRENT\r\nAPPEARANCE THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE RE-LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\n015/3.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF NICHOLAS...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nA LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nAS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG\r\n44W SOUTH OF 22N.  THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE\r\nSLOW MOTION OF NICHOLAS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nSUGGESTS THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HR.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SPREAD.  THE GFS TAKES\r\nNICHOLAS WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES IT DUE NORTHWARD.  THE\r\nUKMET AND THE GFDL CALL FOR A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\n72 HR...AND THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THAT TIME IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THEM.  AFTER 120 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWEST MOTION.  HOWEVER...A LARGE NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDEVELOPING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST COULD CAUSE NICHOLAS TO TURN\r\nMORE NORTHWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWHILE NICHOLAS SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW EVEN TO THE SOUTHWEST...\r\nTHE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE STORM.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST A SHORT-TERM DECREASE IN THE SHEAR.  SO FAR...THESE\r\nFORECASTS HAVE NOT VERIFIED...AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT\r\nTHEY ARE GOING TO VERIFY NOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON\r\nTHE PREMISE THAT CONTINUED MODERATE/STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 16.9N  47.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.4N  47.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 18.1N  48.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.8N  48.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  49.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N  51.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  52.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  54.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-10-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003\r\n\r\nAS HAS HAPPENED THE PAST TWO AFTERNOONS...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nHAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NICHOLAS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSTORM LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO...AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED...ESPECIALLY FROM\r\nTAFB.  THIS DECREASE IS SUPPORTED BY EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING UNIT DATA FROM THE NOAA\r\nPOLAR ORBITING SATELLITES.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/3.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF NICHOLAS...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nA LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nAS A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG\r\n45W SOUTH OF 21N.  THIS COMPLEX PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE\r\nSLOW MOTION OF NICHOLAS...AND THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nSUGGESTS THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HR.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE LESS SPREAD THAN\r\nEARLIER...AS THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET NOW GENERALLY AGREE ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION.  EVEN THE WESTWARD-POINTING GFS\r\nNOW SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD TURN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nIN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 24 HR....THEN A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nNICHOLAS NOW SHOWS NO OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT IT.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHORT-TERM DECREASE IN\r\nSHEAR THAT HAS JUST NOT OCCURRED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO BE BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT MODERATE/STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL LAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CAUSE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS FORECAST A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST AND\r\nINTERACT WITH NICHOLAS.  HOWEVER...THE DETAILS DIFFER ENOUGH\r\nBETWEEN THE MODELS THAT IT IS NOT CURRENTLY POSSIBLE TO TELL\r\nWHETHER THIS WILL HELP THE STORM OR HURT IT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 17.3N  47.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.7N  47.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.4N  48.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.1N  49.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.7N  49.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N  51.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 22.5N  52.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N  53.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-10-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE UNDER THE RELENTLES SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 45 KTS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WANDERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAS\r\nDRIFTED BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE MOTION FOR\r\nTHE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS HAS BEEN 340/2...A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPROACH OF A PARTICULARLY\r\nSTRONG PULSE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL\r\nSEVERELY DISRUPT THE UPPER-LEVEL STRUCTURE AND WILL PROBABLY BEGIN\r\nTHE DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM.  AS THE UPPER-LEVEL IS SHEARED AWAY THE\r\nSTEERING WILL BE CONTROLLED MORE BY THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nBAM SHALLOW AND MEDIUM SUGGEST A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS WHICH WANTS TO WEAKEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE OTHER\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INITIALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nGFDL...NOGAPS AND UKMET ALSO WANT TO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE 72 TO 96 HOUR TIME FRAME IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES.  THESE MODELS ARE\r\nASSUMING A DEEP-CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH...IN ALL LIKELYHOOD...WILL\r\nNOT EXIST.  \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT A\r\nSLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND SLOWER SPEEDS IN THE EARLY FORECAST\r\nPOSITIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH FORECASTS\r\nHIGH SHEAR VALUES OVER THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 17.3N  48.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.4N  48.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N  48.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  49.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.4N  49.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.1N  51.4W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 23.1N  52.7W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 25.2N  53.6W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-10-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A COLD CDO AGAINST STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nEVEN INCREASED A LITTLE WITH 3.0/3.5/3.5 T NUMBERS FROM\r\nSAB/TAFB/KGWCT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/02.  THIS IS BASED MAINLY ON\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW\r\nINFORMATION ABOUT THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WHICH LOOKED POORLY\r\nDEFINED ON A 0150UTC TRMM PASS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE MOVED INTO\r\nFAIR AGREEMENT ABOUT A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 120\r\nHOURS AS NICHOLAS MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND BECOMES\r\nSTEERED BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM\r\nNORTH AMERICA TO THE ATLANTIC.  THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SLOW...ABOUT\r\n5 KNOTS...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ACCELERATE THE FORWARD SPEED TO\r\nABOUT 20 KNOTS BY 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHE SLOWER SOLUTION AND IS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL...IS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO FLUCTUATE AT 20 TO 30\r\nKNOTS FOR 48 HOURS AND INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 17.5N  48.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.8N  48.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.2N  49.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N  49.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N  50.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.5N  51.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 24.5N  52.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 28.0N  52.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-10-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE AND RECENT SSM/I AND TRMM IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...NEAR\r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS ADJUSTED TO 50 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE STORM\r\nIS A LITTLE STRONGER AT THIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR WEAKENING.  INDEED..IN\r\n72-96 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 40 KT...AND IF THIS\r\nVERIFIES NICHOLAS MAY NOT BE WITH US BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  EVEN WITH THE\r\nEASTWARD SHIFT IN LOCATION...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...PRESUMABLY DUE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  FOR SOME REASON...THE 06Z GFDL RUN HAS SHIFTED\r\nMORE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT\r\nFOR NICHOLAS TO MAKE IT VERY FAR TO THE WEST IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  ASIDE FROM ADJUSTING THE EARLY PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EASTWARD RELOCATION...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ROUGHLY IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.8N  47.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  47.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.8N  48.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.4N  49.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.2N  50.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  52.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 25.5N  52.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 28.5N  52.5W    25 KT \r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":25,"Date":"2003-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003\r\n\r\nAFTER A SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...NICHOLAS IS AGAIN\r\nON A WEAKENING TREND...AS WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR RE-ASSERTS ITS\r\nINFLUENCE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME VISIBLE THROUGH\r\nTHE CIRRUS OVERCAST...EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DENSE CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD SHIELD.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG...AND\r\nINCREASING...SHEAR IN STORE FOR NICHOLAS.  THUS WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST...AND THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME SO HOSTILE THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT\r\nMOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL\r\nHURRICANE MODEL SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WITH VARIATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED.  NICHOLAS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nBECOME INFLUENCED BY A MORE NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW TO THE EAST OF\r\nA LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS\r\nADVISORY'S FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT THE SAME AS ITS PREDECESSOR. IT\r\nIS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.7N  47.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.3N  47.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.8N  48.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.4N  49.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.2N  50.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.5N  52.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 25.5N  52.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  52.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":26,"Date":"2003-10-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KTS FROM TAFB AND AND 45 KTS\r\nFROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL AND SAB.  SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER\r\nRELATIVE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE EXPOSED AND\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS SEEN ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE\r\nPASS.  THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KTS.  THE RELENTLESS SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES...AND IF NICHOLAS MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AS FORECAST...\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG AND INCREASING SHEAR IN STORE FOR\r\nIT. THUS WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT\r\nMOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nMOTION BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH\r\nVARIATIONS IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE\r\nSAME. NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOME INFLUENCED BY A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nSTEERING FLOW TO THE EAST OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BUT SLOWER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 17.7N  47.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N  47.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.4N  48.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N  49.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.2N  50.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  51.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 24.4N  52.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  52.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":27,"Date":"2003-10-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003\r\n \r\nIT IS ASSUMED THAT THE STORM HAS REMAINED ABOUT STATIONARY OVERNIGHT\r\nUNDER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nABOUT A NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 120 HOURS AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH ONLY MODEST\r\nACCELERATION.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE OTHERS\r\nBRINGING THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS AFTER 72 HOURS AS A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC IS REINFORCED BY ANOTHER\r\nSHORT WAVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND LEANS TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nABOUT 25 KNOTS OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT\r\nNICHOLAS...AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONSTITUTES THE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nDECREASED A LITTLE BUT STILL SUPPORT A 45-KNOT INITIAL WIND SPEED. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES TO 30 KNOTS AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.    \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.8N  47.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N  47.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  48.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.4N  49.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.4N  50.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  51.9W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N  52.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 29.0N  53.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":28,"Date":"2003-10-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS NOW CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF\r\nDIMINISHING CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 45-55 KT...AN 8Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE\r\nMORE LIKELY IN THE 35-40 KT RANGE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SO CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OR BECOMES\r\nABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n\r\nWITH THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NOW BEGUN\r\nTO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/4. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IN ADVANCE\r\nOF THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF NORTH AMERICA INTO\r\nTHE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nSOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...\r\nNICHOLAS COULD TAKE A TRACK TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 18.0N  48.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.3N  49.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 18.9N  50.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.6N  50.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N  53.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  53.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":29,"Date":"2003-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS IS STILL PRODUCING INTERMITTENT CONVECTION...PROBABLY\r\nENOUGH TO KEEP THE CIRCULATION AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES...AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH...SO CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES OR BECOMES\r\nABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.  ALTHOUGH NOT REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BAROCLINIC FORCING COULD\r\nLEAD TO SOME NON-TROPICAL REGENERATION PRIOR TO ABSORPTION LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/6. NICHOLAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE OFF\r\nNORTH AMERICA INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR\r\nTHE GFS/GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.2N  49.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  50.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N  51.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 19.9N  52.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N  53.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 24.0N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":30,"Date":"2003-10-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2003\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NICHOLAS IS SUPPOSED TO BE WEAKENING...SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT IT HAS MAINTAINED AT LEAST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM \r\nSTRENGTH...AND MAY HAVE EVEN RE-STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND HAS COME BACK NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER.  THIS IS\r\nLIKELY A TEMPORARY EVENT...SINCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME\r\nAS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nNICHOLAS' MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...290/6.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS WELL. \r\nNICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 18.4N  49.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.8N  50.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.6N  51.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 20.7N  52.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N  53.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  53.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":31,"Date":"2003-10-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n \r\nAN IMPRESSIVE COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FLARED UP OVERNIGHT\r\nEVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE\r\nSTORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 TO 45 KNOTS AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nCDO.  THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS' MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...295/6.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AS WELL.\r\nNICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHESE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 18.7N  50.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.2N  51.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 20.1N  52.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N  53.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 23.2N  53.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.3N  53.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 36.0N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":32,"Date":"2003-10-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION FOR THE CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS TO THE WEST \r\nOF THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  INITIAL DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 2.5/3.0 BRING THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS BACK UP TO \r\n45 KTS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7.  THE LATEST TRACK\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nEXPECT NICHOLAS TO MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE ATLANTIC BEFORE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE TROF MOVING OFF THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND ACCELERATING MORE TO THE NORTH. \r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY NARROWLY CLUSTERED AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAUSSER\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 18.5N  51.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.9N  51.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.3N  53.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N  53.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 24.4N  54.1W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 29.1N  53.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 41.0N  52.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":33,"Date":"2003-10-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF NICHOLAS CONTINUES TO BE WELL EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION CONCENTRATED TO THE EAST.  WHILE AVAILABLE 18Z SATELLITE\r\nLOCATION ESTIMATES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL...DVORAK INTENSITY DROPPED\r\nSLIGHTLY SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KTS WITH A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08.  WE EXPECT NICHOLAS TO\r\nBEGIN ITS CURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC UPPER\r\nRIDGE AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE\r\nTROF MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND THUS THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS AGAIN A CONSENSUS.  EXPECT\r\nTHE WIND FIELD TO GRADUALLY EXPAND AFTER 24 HRS AS THE TRANSITION\r\nTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL GALE BEGINS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAUSSER\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 18.7N  52.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N  53.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.1N  54.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 23.4N  54.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 25.6N  54.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  54.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 44.0N  53.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":34,"Date":"2003-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n\r\nNICHOLAS STUBBORNLY REFUSES TO WEAKEN.  IN SPITE OF STRONG VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...THE CENTER REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO SUPPORT WINDS NEAR 40 KT.  APPARENTLY THE SHEAR\r\nIS STILL NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY DISRUPT THE SYSTEM.  GIVEN\r\nTHE STORM'S SURVIVAL SKILLS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT\r\nIT WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY\r\nOR SO.  HOWEVER IN 48 HOURS THE GFS INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING 50 KT AND...IF THAT VERIFIES...NICHOLAS SHOULD BE\r\nWEAKENING OR DISSIPATING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH...OR BE\r\nABSORBED BY...AN  EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  NICHOLAS IS ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THIS HIGH.  THEN THE\r\nFLOW BETWEEN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND THE HIGH SHOULD CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD\r\nAT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE\r\nTO THE WEST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS SIMILAR\r\nTO...ALBEIT A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 19.0N  52.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 19.7N  54.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.3N  54.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 23.5N  55.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":35,"Date":"2003-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED OCT 22 2003\r\n \r\nINCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON\r\nNICHOLAS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN COVERAGE\r\nAND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER IS EASY TO FIND EVEN IN THE DARK...AND NICHOLAS\r\nIS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 260/8.  DESPITE THIS SWERVE TO THE LEFT...THERE\r\nIS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ARE MOVING EASTWARD\r\nFROM THE U. S. EAST COAST.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN NICHOLAS\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND NORTHWARD THEREAFTER AS SHOWN IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  GUIDANCE IS NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS...AS BAMM...\r\nBAMS...AND LBAR FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH.  RIGHT NOW THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND\r\nSCOPE OF THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WAS PARTLY SHIELDING NICHOLAS HAS\r\nEITHER DISSIPATED OR PUSHED EAST OF THE STORM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG...SO NICHOLAS SHOULD AT\r\nLEAST GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC\r\nSYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NOGAPS DOES NOT\r\nFORECAST THAT ABSORBING...KEEPING NICHOLAS A SEPARATE SYSTEM\r\nTHROUGH 120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 18.4N  53.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.8N  55.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 20.3N  55.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 22.3N  56.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  56.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":36,"Date":"2003-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED OCT 22 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NICHOLAS IS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED...WITH A\r\nPAIR OF VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING ABOUT A COMMON CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION WERE DETERMINED FROM THE MEAN CENTER\r\nAND NOT THE CLOUD SWIRLS.  THE OVERALL MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE\r\n315/4.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nA 9Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED PLENTY OF 30 KT VECTORS AND A SINGLE 35 KT\r\nVECTOR IN CONVECTION-FREE AREAS...SUGGESTING THAT NICHOLAS IS STILL\r\nA TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN\r\n35 KT. NICHOLAS TOOK A SHOT OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERNIGHT\r\nTHAT HAS DRIVEN THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER 100 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH A LITTLE BIT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY TOO LATE TO HELP NICHOLAS\r\nREGENERATE. WITH THE CIRCULATION ALREADY POORLY DEFINED...NICHOLAS\r\nMAY DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW...AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE GFS. A CONTRARY VIEW IS PROVIDED BY THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS...WHICH HANG ON TO A CLOSED CIRCULATION FOR AT LEAST THREE\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 19.1N  54.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.8N  54.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.6N  55.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 24.0N  56.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":37,"Date":"2003-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED OCT 22 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nSTRONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING ONLY WITHIN THESE BANDS. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THEREFORE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THEN DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR\r\nTWO.\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS GUNS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 20.1N  54.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.7N  55.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N  56.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.0N  56.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":38,"Date":"2003-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED OCT 22 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHOSE TOPS ARE BEING\r\nSHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THERE IS NOT\r\nMUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER\r\nNICHOLAS A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS NEAR 30\r\nKT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...SO IT IS PRESUMED\r\nTHAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL OCCURRING IN SOME OF\r\nTHE HEAVIER SHOWERS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO IMPACT NICHOLAS...SO WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE\r\nMOTION IS NOW ABOUT 325/10.  NICHOLAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN GRADUALLY\r\nNORTHWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AHEAD OF A LARGE \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 21.1N  55.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  56.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 24.7N  56.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 27.0N  57.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":39,"Date":"2003-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU OCT 23 2003\r\n\r\nNICHOLAS IS NOW COMPRISED OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH\r\nISOLATED BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 25 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THIS...NICHOLAS IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30\r\nKT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/12...AND SINCE 06Z NICHOLAS MAY BE\r\nMOVING ALMOST DUE NORTH.  A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THAT SHOULD BE IN 24-36 HR AS STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS HOLD ON TO\r\nNICHOLAS FOR 4-5 DAYS...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE UNLIKELY BASED ON\r\nCURRENT TRENDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 22.3N  56.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 24.0N  56.9W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 26.5N  57.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  57.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":40,"Date":"2003-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU OCT 23 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS REMAINS A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH LIMITED CONVECTION DISPLACED\r\nWELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. A 9Z QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH\r\nSTILL SHOWED SOME WINDS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALSO\r\nINDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS VERY CLOSE TO OPENING UP\r\nINTO A TROUGH. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AT\r\nMOST ABOUT 24 HOURS AS NICHOLAS INCREASES ITS NORTHWARD FORWARD\r\nSPEED IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 22.9N  56.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 24.3N  57.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  57.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nicholas","Adv":41,"Date":"2003-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NICHOLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2003\r\n \r\nNICHOLAS CONTINUES TO BE A MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE CLOUD SWIRL.  A\r\nRECENT ADEOS SCATTEROMETER PASS SUGGESTED THAT THERE IS LITTLE OR\r\nNO SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD SWIRL.  GIVEN\r\nTHIS...AND THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...NICHOLAS IS NO\r\nLONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ADVISORIES ARE DISCONTINUED AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE REMNANTS OF NICHOLAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 24.3N  56.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-12-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU DEC 04 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION WITH BANDING FEATURES AND APPEARS TO HAVE A CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE GENESIS OF THIS OFF-SEASON SYSTEM HAS\r\nBEEN SUCCESSFULLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n\r\nTHERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. HOWEVER...WE WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE CHECKS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO\r\nONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 025/09. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE BETWEEN\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH NHC GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 13.3N  76.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.7N  75.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N  74.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  73.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 25.0N  70.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 38.0N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-12-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003\r\n \r\nDUE TO MECHANICAL PROBLEMS THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HEADING FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TURNED BACK TO BASE. THE NEXT FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR\r\nFRIDAY AT 12Z. NEVERTHELESS...HIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM\r\nODETTE...THE 15TH NAMED STORM OF THE YEAR AND THE FIRST NAMED STORM\r\nTO FORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN DECEMBER. \r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nAND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHWEST. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER\r\nDUE TO THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA. THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...\r\nONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nODETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN AND A STRONG APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ODETTE\r\nSHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN PERFORMING VERY WELL. THE GFDL HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BE MOODY. ONE RUN MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE AND THE\r\nNEXT ONE DISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...\r\nESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS\r\nALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 14.0N  75.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 15.4N  74.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  74.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 22.0N  72.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  68.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-12-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU DEC 04 2003\r\n \r\nODETTE CONTINUES TO SHOW A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD\r\nTOPS TO -80C NEAR THE CENTER.  A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWED\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS UNDER THE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE\r\nWELL ENOUGH DEVELOPED TO CALL AN EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE ALL 35 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\nHOWEVER...WITH THE COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CURVATURE\r\nUNDERNEATH...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ODETTE IS A BIT\r\nSTRONGER.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPOSITION...SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS A SMALL RELOCATION.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/7.  SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT A DEEP-LAYER WINTER STORM IS FORMING OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nALL AGREE THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD...EVENTUALLY\r\nDRAWING ODETTE TO THE NORTHEAST.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE\r\nSPEED.  THE BAMD...BAMM...AND LBAR ARE MUCH FASTER WITH THE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION....WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND\r\nBAMS ARE MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION\r\nFOR THE FIRST 24 HR FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION.\r\n\r\nODETTE IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW TO\r\nTHE NORTH SWEEPS INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASED\r\nSHEAR...MOVEMENT OVER HISPANIOLA...AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. \r\nODETTE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR AND ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HR. \r\n \r\nODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...\r\nESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS\r\nALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 14.0N  75.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 15.8N  74.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 17.9N  73.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 21.4N  71.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.5N  67.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-12-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF\r\nODETTE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNDERGOING\r\nPERIODIC CONVECTIVE BURSTS EVERY 3 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE\r\nDATA EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND WITH ABOUT A 75 PERCENT MID-LEVEL EYEWALL. THE INTENSITY WAS\r\nINCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE FEATURE AND A\r\nCONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...PLUS A\r\nDATA T-NUMBER OF 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/07. ODETTE CONTINUES TO DEFY ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS..BY\r\nMOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE MDOEL TRACKS. THE LATEST GFDL...GFS...\r\nAND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ODETTE SHARPLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...AND MOVE THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE\r\nWINDWARD PASSAGE OR BARELY ACROSS WESTERN HAITI IN 30-36 HOURS.\r\nTHIS SEEMS RATHER EXTREME GIVEN THAT THERE IS MODERATE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AS\r\nNOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN SURROUNDING THE UPPER-AIR\r\nOBSERVATIONS. IN CONTRAST...THE CANADIAN MODEL TAKES ODETTE\r\nSTRAIGHT ACROSS THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA WHILE THE UKMET...THE\r\nFARTHEST RIGHT OF ALL THE NHC MODELS...TAKES ODETTE ACROSS THE\r\nEASTERN TIP OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ODETTE MAY ALSO BE\r\nEXPERIENCING SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWITHIN A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE NHC MODELS AGREE ON A MUCH SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED...LESS THAN 10 KT...THROUGH 24-36 HOURS...WITH RAPID\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AFTER THAT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nAND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS\r\nTHE GUNA OR GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCANADIAN MODEL FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nODETTE REMAINS UNDER LESS THAN 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...WHICH FAVORS AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.\r\nOF COURSE...THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW STRONG IS ODETTE\r\nCURRENTLY. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF RECON FINDS A STRONGER STORM\r\nTHAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT IN 24 HOURS GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT IMPRESIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE FACT THAT SSTS ARE RUNNING\r\nABOUT 29C BENEATH THE CYCLONE. AFTER ODETTE PASSES OVER THE CENTER\r\nOF HISPANIOLA...THE 8000-10000 FT MOUNTAINS SHOULD REALLY DISRUPT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT THAT\r\nEMERGES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS. A STRONG COLD\r\nFRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCATCH UP WITH ODETTE BY 60-72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AND ABSORB\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND TURN IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nODETTE SHOULD BRING VERY HEAVY RAINS AND MUD SLIDES TO HISPANIOLA...\r\nESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HAITI IN AREAS WHERE THE SOIL IS\r\nALREADY BARE AND DEFOLIATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 14.5N  74.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 15.6N  73.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 17.6N  72.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 20.5N  70.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 26.7N  65.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-12-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2003\r\n\r\n...FORECASTER NAME...\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REACHED ODETTE THIS MORNING AND FOUND A WELL-\r\nORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO\r\n3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45\r\nKNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE\r\nCHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT CROSSES HISPANIOLA AND\r\nWEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER\r\nFRONTAL LOW.\r\n \r\nODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER AND MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nTHAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. COMPUTER MODELS INSIST ON A TURN MORE\r\nTO NORTHEAST AS A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THIS MODEL SOLUTION WAS OBSERVED DURING HURRICANE LENNY IN\r\n1999 WHEN ALL MODELS INDICATED A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND THE\r\nHURRICANE CONTINUED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EXCELLENT\r\nPERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND TURNS ODETTE MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 14.2N  74.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N  73.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  72.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.0N  71.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N  67.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-12-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN CHANGING FROM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO\r\nBANDING DURING THE DAY. LAST AIR FORCE FIX FOUND A VERY TIGHT\r\nCENTER WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE EXPANDING AND THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nDEFINED ON THE WESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE...ODETTE HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE IT\r\nCROSSES HISPANIOLA AND WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. IN FACT...THE\r\nGFDL MAKES ODETTE A HURRICANE. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND THEREAFTER IT SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A\r\nMUCH LARGER FRONTAL LOW.\r\n \r\nODETTE HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT...AS ANTICIPATED...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST A LITTLE BIT\r\nFASTER. THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGING\r\nODETTE OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE\r\nOPEN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 15.0N  73.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N  72.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  71.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.0N  69.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-12-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI DEC 05 2003\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ODETTE DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE LATEST\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 995 MB.  A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A 43\r\nKT SURFACE WIND...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. \r\nDROPSONDE DATA FROM BOTH THIS AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER NOAA RESEARCH\r\nFLIGHT INDICATE ODETTE IS TILTED TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST WITH\r\nHEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 050/9.  SURFACE DATA AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG AND COMPLEX WINTER STORM\r\nSYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA.  THIS STORM SHOULD STEER ODETTE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DIRECTION.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AS THE GFS AND AND UKMET ARE FASTER\r\nWHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS\r\nAND GUNA CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWHILE ODETTE CURRENTLY HAS OUTFLOW EVEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW AND SHEARING THE CYCLONE.  THUS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nIS EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM REACHES HISPANIOLA.  PASSAGE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA SHOULD CAUSE ODETTE TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nDEPRESSION...THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AS\r\nWHATEVER MAY REMAIN OF THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ODETTE TO CAUSE SOME GALES AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW ALONG THE FRONT...AND THE INTENSITY AND WIND\r\nRADII FORECAST HAVE BEEN CHANGED AT 48 HR TO REFLECT THIS.\r\n\r\nTHE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE AT THIS TIME IS THAT OF HEAVY RAINS\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 15.3N  72.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.7N  71.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N  70.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  67.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.5N  62.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-12-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003\r\n \r\nODETTE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS ALSO STRENGTHENED DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS BASED ON RECON AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST FLIGHT\r\nINTO ODETTE HAD TO BE TRUNCATED DUE TO INTENSE LIGHTNING AND SEVERE\r\nTURBULENCE. THEREFORE...THE MAX WINDS NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY WERE\r\nNOT SAMPLED...BUT RECON STILL FOUND 60 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT\r\n0433Z WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS MORE THAN 40 NMI\r\nFROM THE RADAR CENTER. A 06/0310Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED AN 80\r\nPERCENT CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND AN ELONGATED BUT CLOSED\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE. IN ADDITION...A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WAS DERIVED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS ALONG\r\nWITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMS THAT ODETTE\r\nHAS STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.\r\nUNLIKE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WAS\r\nSPREAD BETWEEN THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES...THERE IS MUCH\r\nBETTER CONVERGENCE AND AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THIS MORNING ON A\r\nTRACK ACROSS WESTERN TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN ABOUT 12\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED\r\nONCE ODETTE EMERGES OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA BY 24 HOURS\r\n...WITH RAPID ACCELERATION BEGINNING BY 36 HOURS AS A STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGIN TO\r\nAFFECT THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER...\r\nCOMPLETE TRANSITION INTO OR ABSORPTION BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND THEN BASICALLY BACK ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT ODETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nHAS DECREASED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THERE IS VERY LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT ANOTHER 5\r\nKT INCREASE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nHISPANIOLA SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ODETTE...AND THE CYCLONE MAY BE\r\nWEAKER THAN INDICATED AT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE ODETTE\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA AS IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT. THE\r\nGFDL MAKES ODETTE A 74 KT HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THIS\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF THE FACT THAT\r\nTHE GFDL ALSO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER\r\nMOUNTAINOUS HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nTHE GREATEST THREAT FROM ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THAT COULD CAUSE POTENTIALLY DEADLY\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 16.5N  72.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 18.2N  71.3W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.7N  69.3W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 24.2N  65.8W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 28.5N  60.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-12-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT DEC 06 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY. THERE IS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND TO\r\nTHE EAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ON THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nRECENTLY REPORTED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 995 MB. HOWEVER \r\nTHE DROP REPORTED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS SUGGESTING THAT IT DID NOT HIT\r\nTHE CENTER AND THE PRESSURE COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER. ODETTE HAS\r\nTHE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE LANDFALL AND ALTHOUGH IT\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE TO REACH\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC. \r\n\r\nODETTE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 TO 12\r\nKNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN AND A MAJOR MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THIS TROUGH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WINTER OUTBREAK OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD...THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW SHOULD INCREASE AND ODETTE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...IN FACT... THEY ARE ON TOP OF EACH OTHER. THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS SHOULD BE VERY RELIABLE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS GUNS AND GUNA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 17.2N  71.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N  71.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N  68.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 25.5N  64.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 29.5N  58.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE LOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-12-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR INLAND STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX FROM THE RECON WAS AROUND 17Z AND INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WAS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT WINDS AND PRESSURE REMAIN\r\nAT 55 KNOTS AND 994 MB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND TO\r\nTHE EAST. THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nALREADY AFFECTING THE BARAHONA PENINSULA AND THE ISLA BEATA WITH\r\nVERY HEAVY SQUALLS. THE WEATHER SHOULD WORSEN OVER HISPANIOLA\r\nTONIGHT AS ODETTE MAKES LANDFALL. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED DOWN\r\nTHERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nAND ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR ODETTE\r\nTO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OR TO PRODUCE HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWIND GUSTS.  THEREAFTER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS. ODETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nODETTE NOT ONLY HAS REFUSED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nANTICIPATED BUT IN FACT...IT HAS SLOWED DOWN. THE CYCLONE IS NOW\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD\r\nSOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH.  THIS FORECAST IS NOT DIFFERENT FROM THE SOLUTION PROVIDED\r\nBY GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFDL WAS ABLE TO CAPTURE THE CURRENT\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATEST RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 17.5N  71.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  71.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  68.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 24.5N  64.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 27.5N  59.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-12-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT DEC 06 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. \r\nAIR FORCE RECON AND QUIKSCAT INDICATE TROPICAL FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nSTILL OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANTS OF THE STORM  AND WARNINGS WILL BE LEFT UP OVER\r\nHISPANIOLA FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE STORM ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS IT\r\nGETS CAUGHT UP IN THE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nTHAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nBASED ON AIRCRAFT AND QUIKSCAT WINDS..THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO\r\n45 KNOTS.  HOWEVER THERE COULD BE HIGHER WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN.  RECENT INFRARED IMAGES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE SHOWING A\r\nLARGE COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE PERSISTING OVER HISPANIOLA.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING AS ODETTE MOVES BACK OVER\r\nWATER AND MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  THE CYCLONE PHASE\r\nFORECAST BASED ON THE 18Z GFS RUN NOW ON THE FSU WEBSITE SHOWS\r\nODETTE QUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN ADDITIONAL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 18.3N  71.1W    45 KT...OVER LAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.9N  70.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 23.0N  66.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 25.8N  62.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 29.0N  57.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 37.0N  46.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-12-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTIME IMAGERY BUT IS LIKELY\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH ODETTE LACKS ORGANIZATION AND IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  WINDS OF 30 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM NEAR SANTO DOMINGO\r\nFOR THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT HIGHER WINDS\r\nSTILL EXIST ELSEWHERE.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AROUND 1200 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/12...AND ODETTE APPEARS TO BE\r\nACCELERATING AS EXPECTED.  A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE\r\nCYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE ALOFT ODETTE IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nTHAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.  ALL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ACCELERATES ODETTE NORTHEASTWARD BUT AT VARYING SPEEDS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER GFS/GFDL AND THE\r\nSLOWER UKMET/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS.  ODETTE WILL BE COMING UNDER STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nWILL BE GOVERNED LARGELY BY HOW WELL THE SYSTEM REMAINS VERTICALLY\r\nCOUPLED.\r\n \r\nODETTE IS LIKELY TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL\r\nZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  MOST\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS\r\nSTRENGTH DURING THIS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 19.4N  70.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.2N  68.4W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 24.0N  65.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 26.7N  60.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 29.0N  55.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odette","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-12-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT\r\nODETTE IS RAPIDLY MERGING WITH A COLD FRONT. THE PLANE DID NOT FIND\r\nA CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT THERE WAS STILL AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP TROUGH AND 35 TO 40-KNOT WINDS. BECAUSE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS KEEP CARRY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ODETTE AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nCAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 21.3N  68.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 23.5N  65.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.0N  62.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 29.5N  56.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 33.0N  50.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Peter","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-12-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2003\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS DID IT AGAIN...THEY SUCCESFULLY FORECAST THE GENESIS\r\nOF TROPICAL CYCLONE PETER AS THEY DID WITH ODETTE. \r\n\r\nTHE GALE CENTER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE PETER...THE 16TH NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2003\r\nSEASON. OFFICIAL RECORDS INDICATE THAT THE LAST TIME THERE WERE TWO\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES OF AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN DECEMBER\r\nWAS 1887.\r\n \r\nPETER ORIGINATED WITHIN A LARGER NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE MOVED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH DURING\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS TOWARD WARMER WATERS. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS...MOSTLY BASED ON QUICKSCAT DATA AND\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION. CURRENTLY...PETER IS MOVING LITTLE BUT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10\r\nKNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER TODAY.  PETER WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MOST LIKELY WILL\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 24\r\nHOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 20.0N  37.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  36.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  34.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  32.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Peter","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-12-09 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PETER SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nNOON EST TUE DEC 09 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PETER IS DEVELOPING AN EYE FEATURE\r\nAND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATES. IN FACT..IF\r\nTHE EYE FEATURE PERSISTS...PETER COULD BE UPGRADED TO A HURRICALE\r\nLATER TODAY.  NO CHANGES IN TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ARE\r\nINDICATED IN THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1700Z 20.3N  37.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  36.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  34.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  32.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Peter","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-12-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003\r\n \r\nPETER CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION AND SEVERAL CYCLONIC CURVED BANDS.  IN\r\nFACT...PETER MAY HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME\r\nEARLIER TODAY WHEN A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS OBSERVED ON VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES. HOWEVER...THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISTINCT BUT THE CURRENT\r\nCLOUD PATTERN SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nPETER IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. PETER SHOULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\nTHIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS.    \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 21.4N  36.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  36.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  35.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 29.3N  32.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Peter","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-12-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2003\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PETER HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nLEFT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS FAST AS\r\nTHE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOW.  PETER FELL THROUGH THE CRACKS OF THE\r\nLAST TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES...SO THE INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. \r\nTHE 45 KT ASSIGNED INTENSITY MAY BE GENEROUS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW APPROACHING THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND THIS...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nUNDERNEATH...MAKES IT QUITE LIKELY THAT THE WEAKENING TREND WILL\r\nCONTINUE.  PETER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DODGE THE APPROACHING FRONTAL\r\nZONE...THE SAME ONE THAT ABSORBED ODETTE A COUPLE DAYS AGO...AND\r\nPETER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THIS ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS. \r\nALTERNATIVELY...PETER COULD DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW IF THERE IS NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/13.  PETER IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...AND THIS\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\n \r\nWITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ODETTE AND PETER...THE 2003 TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSEASON IS NOW THE LONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON SINCE 1952...A\r\nYEAR IN WHICH THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM FORMED ON FEBRUARY 2ND AND\r\nTHE LAST ONE DISSIPATED ON OCTOBER 28TH.  ANA BECAME THE FIRST\r\nTROPICAL STORM OF 2003 BACK ON APRIL 21ST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 22.9N  37.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 24.9N  36.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 28.1N  36.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Peter","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-12-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nCONSTRAINTS KEEP THE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS...BUT PETER HAS LIKELY\r\nFALLEN BELOW STORM STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS.  THE APPROACHING FRONT HAS REACHED THE OUTER\r\nCIRCULATION OF PETER AND STRONG SHEAR IS EVIDENT.  THE 00Z GFS\r\nMODEL SHOWS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO\r\nDISSIPATE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT\r\nA MOSTLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS THE\r\nCYCLONE GETS SWEPT AWAY BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 23.4N  37.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 25.9N  36.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 29.4N  33.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Peter","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-12-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED DEC 10 2003\r\n \r\nPETER HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS BUT THE\r\nLASTEST QUICKCAT STILL SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WINDS\r\nOF ABOUT 30 KNOTS. BECAUSE PETER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD\r\nABOUT 12 KNOTS TOWARD INCREASING COOLER WATERS...DEVELOPMENT OF THE\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY. IN FACT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 24.2N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 26.5N  36.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 30.0N  34.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Peter","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-12-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED DEC 10 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PETER HAS REFUSED TO DISSIPATE SINCE\r\nNEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD HINDER FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 025/15.  PETER SHOULD INCREASE FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nMOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE REMNANTS OF PETER...WILL LIKELY\r\nMOVE OVER THE AZORES WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 25.7N  36.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  35.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 32.2N  31.8W    25 KT...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Peter","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-12-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED DEC 10 2003\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY VECTORS FROM THE MOST RECENT PASS AT 21Z INDICATE\r\nTHAT PETER HAS...AT BEST...ONLY A VERY SMALL CLOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AND IS IN THE PROCESS OF OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH. \r\nOVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...PETER HAS BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE ONLY\r\nINTERMITTENT AND LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION...NOT REALLY ENOUGH TO\r\nQUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE... THIS WILL\r\nBE THE LAST ADVISORY ON PETER...AND WITH ANY LUCK...THE LAST\r\nADVISORY FOR THE 2003 HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 30\r\nKT TO THE EAST OF THE DISSIPATING CENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n025/12.  THE REMNANTS OF PETER SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nTO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE UNTIL THEY ARE ABSORBED INTO\r\nTHE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF PETER CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 26.5N  36.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-05-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON MAY 19 2003\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWED A DECENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER FROM THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND\r\nFORECAST BRANCH IS NOW 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  THEREFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS THE FIRST DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY WARM WATER BUT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSERVATIVE...AND ABOUT 10\r\nKT BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING\r\nTHE PERIOD.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z  9.6N 103.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z  9.7N 104.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 10.0N 106.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 10.5N 108.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 11.0N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 12.0N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-05-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS LOOKING MORE HEALTHY THIS MORNING...\r\nWITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND THE BEGINNING OF AN OUTER BAND IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\nTHE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE EXACTLY IS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER? IF\r\nTHE CENTER IS NEAR WHERE THE CONVECTIVE CURVATURE SUGGESTS...\r\nTHEN THE CYCLONE IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND IS\r\nLIKELY A TROPICAL STORM IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB.  HOWEVER...TWO SSM/I OVERPASSES HINT THAT THE CENTER\r\nIS ACTUALLY PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nPRIMARY CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL POSITION WILL COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN EXTREMES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE SEEMS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 270/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A BASICALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR 12-24\r\nHR. AFTER THAT...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A MORE WEST- NORTHWESTERLY\r\nMOTION FOR THE DEPRESSION.  NHC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH\r\nTHE DIRECTION...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE SPEED OF\r\nMOTION BETWEEN THE FAST GFS AND BAMD AND THE SLOW GFDL AND NHC91. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND NOTABLY FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS AND BAMS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE IT SHOULD BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nGENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THROUGH 48-72 HR...WITH\r\nSOME INCREASE IN SHEAR POSSIBLE AFTERWARDS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nINTO COOLER WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  ONE POTENTIAL INHIBITING FACTOR\r\nIS A LARGE AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  SHOULD THIS AIR\r\nENTRAIN INTO THE CYCLONE IT COULD SLOW OR PREVENT DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z  9.7N 104.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z  9.8N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 10.1N 107.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 10.6N 109.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 11.1N 111.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 12.0N 116.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 13.5N 120.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 14.5N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-05-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME\r\nSYMMETRY AND BANDING...RESULTING IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ANDRES ON THIS BASIS.  0936Z TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE DOES NOT HELP MUCH IN LOCATING LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER. A VERY RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS AN EAST/WEST\r\nELONGATED CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH\r\nAN UNCONTAMINATED 40 KT SURFACE WIND AND A COUPLE OF 60-65 KT\r\nFLAGGED RAIN-CONTAMINATED SURFACE WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/09.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS AND TRACK GUIDANCE VARIES BETWEEN DUE WESTWARD AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE FORWARD MOTION FROM THE GFDL MODEL IS\r\nRATHER SLOW WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AGGRESSIVELY BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 78 KT IN 60 HOURS AND\r\nTHE SHIPS BRINGS IT TO 60 KT...OVER WARM SSTS AND WEAK VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY FOR 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS TO\r\n55 KT BY 36 HOURS FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z  9.9N 105.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 10.0N 107.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 10.5N 109.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 11.2N 111.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N 119.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 123.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-05-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003\r\n\r\nCORRECTED 36 AND 48 HOURS FORECAST LOCATIONS AND INTENSITIES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS.\r\nTHE  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC\r\nBUT WITH MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING.  ALSO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nMOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.  IN ANY CASE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST\r\nAGGRESSIVE MODEL BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 93 KNOTS IN 42\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN WIND SPEED FOR 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE GFS SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS AND COOLER\r\nSSTS ARE UNDER THE TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z  9.8N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 10.1N 108.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 10.5N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 11.0N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 11.7N 116.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 121.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 14.5N 124.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-05-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE MAY 20 2003\r\n\r\nANDRES IS BEING AFFECTED BY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS\r\nINTERRUPTED THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BRIEFLY\r\nBECAME EXPOSED...BUT MORE RECENTLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE CENTER.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS\r\nWELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INDICATE PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE.  STABLER AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nANDRES MIGHT ALSO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.\r\n\r\nTHE WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE.  THE FLOW\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO STEER THE STORM ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE\r\nACCELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z  9.8N 107.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 10.0N 109.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 10.4N 112.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 11.0N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 117.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 13.5N 122.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-05-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED MAY 21 2003\r\n \r\nSEVERAL SSM/I AND AMSU OVERPASSES DURING THE NIGHT INDICATE THAT\r\nANDRES CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT LEAST\r\nPARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  AT THE\r\nMOMENT...A RATHER IMPRESSIVE BURST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C\r\nIS OCCURRING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND\r\n35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST THERE IS A CHANCE THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER.\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13.\r\nANDRES IS SOUTH OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD SINCE\r\nLAST NIGHT.  THIS HAS LIKELY HELPED MAINTAIN ANDRES ON A WESTERLY\r\nCOURSE TO THE SOUTH OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE PAST 24\r\nHR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT\r\nWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND THAT ANDRES WILL TURN MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES WITH THIS.\r\nSINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN MAKING THIS TURN...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION FOR 12-24 HR\r\nMORE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS\r\nTRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE...AND FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HR...ON THE SOUTH EDGE OF IT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  MODEL FORECASTS FROM LAST\r\nNIGHT DID NOT INDICATE THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER\r\nANDRES...AND THE RUNS FROM TONIGHT DO NOT SEEM TO INITIALIZE THOSE\r\nWINDS WELL.  THUS...THERE IS LESS THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODEL FORECASTS OF LIGHT SHEAR OVER ANDRES THROUGH 72\r\nHR.  SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY...ANDRES WOULD BE DEEP EASTERLY\r\nFLOW...WHICH COULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES AND THE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NEAR ANDRES ENTRAINS INTO THE SYSTEM...LITTLE OR NO\r\nDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN\r\nTHESE EXTREMES.  IT CALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 12 HR\r\nDUE TO THE CURRENT SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER 72 HR...ANDRES SHOULD BE MOVING INTO COOLER\r\nWATERS AND SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z  9.7N 109.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z  9.8N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 10.3N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 11.0N 116.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 11.8N 119.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 13.5N 124.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-05-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED MAY 21 2003\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER ANDRES CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF\r\nINTERMITTENT CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY...SUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35\r\nKNOTS. IT IS NOT VERY CLEAR IF THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OR NOT...BUT\r\nTHE SHORT TERM TREND IS FOR THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW ANDRES TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nTHEREAFTER...ANDRES WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND\r\nREGARDLESS OF SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  THE GFDL INSISTS ON\r\nA RATHER QUICK INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 48 HOURS. IT MAY HAPPEN.\r\n\r\nANDRES IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 13 KNOTS...STEERED BY A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nMAINTAINING THE HIGH OVER MEXICO...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM\r\nSUCH MODELS IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z  9.9N 110.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 10.0N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 10.5N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 11.5N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 13.5N 124.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 16.5N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-05-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED MAY 21 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nANDRES HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND\r\nCONTINUES TO BE SHEARED. ANDRES HAS A SMALL BUT TIGHT LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION\r\nWITH A FEW RAINBANDS TO THE EAST. ACCORDING TO DVORAK T-NUMBERS...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR COULD RELAX IN THE SHORT TERM...ALLOWING ANDRES TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSOME. HOWEVER A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD BE\r\nA NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION. ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE ANDRES REACHES COOL\r\nWATERS AND WEAKENING BEGINS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE AGGRESSIVE\r\nBUT NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE EARLIER RUNS.\r\n\r\nANDRES IS MOVING A LITTLE BIT FASTER...ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS\r\nSTEERED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\nBECAUSE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND GRADUALLY EXPAND\r\nWESTWARD...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. WITH SUCH A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT STEERING\r\nFLOW...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 10.6N 112.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.0N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 11.5N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 12.5N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 122.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 136.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-05-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED MAY 21 2003\r\n\r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO OCCUR NEAR AND OVER THE CENTER\r\nBUT THE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN POORLY DEFINED.  ANDRES' INTENSITY\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nAPPARENTLY NOT HOSTILE ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...BUT SO FAR\r\nNOT FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL A LITTLE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND DRIER/MORE STABLE\r\nAIR TO THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF ANDRES IS ADVECTING A MORE FAVORABLE AIR MASS AROUND\r\nIT...AND TO THE NORTHWEST.  MOREOVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THOSE FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nANDRES' MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...AT A LITTLE\r\nFASTER PACE OF 15 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS A STRONG\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ANDRES AND THIS STEERING\r\nPATTERN SHOULD BE MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...U. K.\r\nMET. OFFICE...AND NOGAPS TRACKS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 10.6N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 11.0N 116.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 11.5N 119.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 12.3N 121.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N 137.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-05-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2003\r\n \r\nWHILE ANDRES REMAINS SHEARED FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IT LOOKS MUCH\r\nHEALTHIER THAN 24 HR AGO.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR OR POSSIBLY\r\nUNDER THE MAIN CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE CONVECTIVE AREA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  SINCE THE CENTER COULD\r\nACTUALLY BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...THERE IS A CHANCE\r\nTHAT ANDRES IS STRONGER THAN 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/16.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHE PERSISTENT MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF ANDRES IS NOW\r\nNEAR 21N115W.  A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 130W. \r\nTHE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP ANDRES ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nFOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A 280-290 DEGREE\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT TROUGHING SHOULD LINGER\r\nBETWEEN 140W AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS IS MOREL LIKELY TO SHEAR ANDRES THAN STEER IT...THUS\r\nTHE FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  THE 200 MB HIGH THAT IS\r\nAND HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET HAS YET TO\r\nPUT IN AN APPEARANCE.  TO THE CONTRARY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES COVERING THE AREA WEST OF 122W. \r\nSHOULD ANDRES HIT THESE...THE STORM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN.  IF THE\r\nANTICYCLONE FORMS...ANDRES SHOULD STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND\r\nCOULD BECOME A HURRICANE.  INDEED...FOR THE FIRST TIME THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL BRINGS ANDRES TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE NEEDS TO BE BETTER EVIDENCE OF DECREASING SHEAR\r\nBEFORE THAT BECOMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SINCE ANDRES IS\r\nSTRENGTHENING DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HR.  ANDRES SHOULD REACH THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM AT ABOUT 72 HR...AND THAT COMBINED WITH SIGNIFICANT\r\nSHEAR FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM AFTER THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 10.9N 115.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 11.3N 118.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 11.9N 120.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 12.5N 123.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 13.1N 125.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 15.5N 134.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-05-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2003\r\n\r\nANDRES IS STILL FIGHTING THE SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES\r\nTO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA AND A FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE. BASED ON\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. IT IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE\r\nCURRENT CLOUD PATTERN AND WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY\r\nWINDS HEADING FOR ANDRES. IN FACT...THE GFS IS NOW FORECASTING\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER ANDRES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nBEFORE THE MODEL DEVELOPS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE.\r\nANDRES THEN HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE 36 AND 48 HOUR\r\nPERIOD. THEREAFTER... REGARDLESS OF SHEAR... ANDRES SHOULD BE\r\nAPPROACHING COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nANDRES IS RIGHT ON COURSE...MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN ANTICYCLONE. A\r\nGRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE. BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL\r\nESTABLISHED...THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.         \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 11.3N 117.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 120.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N 125.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 140.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-05-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2003\r\n \r\nSTRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON ANDRES. THE TIGHT AND\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM IS NOW RACING AWAY FROM\r\nTHE LIMITED CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nMIGHT HAVE BEEN TOO HIGH. DESPITE THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OBSERVED\r\nON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE DID NOT SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THERE IS ANOTHER BAND\r\nOF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES HEADING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING. BECAUSE THERE MAY BE\r\nADDITIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION...A CONSERVATIVE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST KEEPS A 35-KNOT STORM FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN CALLS FOR\r\nWEAKENING AS ANDRES APPROACHES COOL WATERS. BEYOND 3 DAYS..ANDRES\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 18\r\nKNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A WEAKENING AND SHALLOW\r\nANDRES COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 11.7N 119.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.2N 122.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-05-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2003\r\n\r\nANDRES CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.\r\nHOWEVER...RECENTLY A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nOCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BUT BECAUSE OF THE CONVECTIVE BURST...THE\r\nFAST FORWARD MOTION...AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN SATELLITE-BASED\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE WINDS ARE MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  HOPEFULLY WE WILL GET A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM IN\r\nA FEW HOURS...AND OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.\r\nALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR\r\nANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE SHEARING ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST OF ANDRES SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nANDRES IS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT TRADEWIND FLOW AND CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD...280/19.  IN FACT A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM MAY BE DUE TO THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS PREDICTED...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nSOMEWHAT.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...A DUE WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED\r\nAS THE STEERING IS LIKELY TO BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS. \r\nTHIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE\r\nLATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 12.0N 121.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 13.1N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 13.6N 129.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 136.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 14.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-05-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING QUITE DISORGANIZED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...ANDRES HAS\r\nMADE A CONSIDERABLE COMEBACK THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS DISAPPEARED UNDER A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BURST WITH TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C...AND TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCONVECTION IS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTER. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 40 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE DURING THE PAST 6 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  ANDRES IS EMBEDDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 135W.  THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 24-36 HR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TROUGH COULD TURN ANDRES\r\nMORE NORTHWARD IF IT IS WELL-ENOUGH DEVELOPED...AS IS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE BAMD AND BAMM.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT\r\nANDRES WILL BE WEAK AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 36 HR\r\nWITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nTO DEAL WITH THE EASY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...ANDRES SHOULD\r\nCROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 24-30 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...COOLER WATER\r\nAND SHEAR FROM THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY\r\nWEAKEN.  THE TRICKY PART IS WHAT MAY HAPPEN BEFORE ANDRES REACHES\r\nTHE COOLER WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH...BASED PARTLY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...PARTLY ON THE\r\nEXPECTATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR...AND PARTLY ON THE WAY ANDRES FELL\r\nAPART YESTERDAY AFTER LOOKING SIMILAR TO HOW IT DOES NOW. \r\nHOWEVER...THE STORM IS MOVING OUT OF WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. \r\nWHILE HARDLY IDEAL...THIS BRINGS UP AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT THE\r\nSHEAR MAY DECREASE OVER ANDRES FOR 12-24 HR AND ALLOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 12.4N 123.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 12.8N 125.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.4N 128.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 13.8N 131.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.1N 133.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-05-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003\r\n \r\nINITIAL LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN.  02Z QUIKSCAT SUGGESTED NO CLOSED LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER.  MORE RECENT AMSU AND SSMI MICROWAVE DO SUGGEST THAT A\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL THERE.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/18 FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PLACES\r\nTHE CENTER UNDER AND NEAR THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE STORM ON A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS AFTER WHICH THE GFS...UKMET AND GFDL SHOW\r\nDISSIPATION. THE NOGAPS SHOWS A WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THESE ESTIMATES INDICATE\r\nSTRENGTHENING BASED ON THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CENTER UNDER\r\nTHE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF STORM DO NOT\r\nRESOLVE THE EXISTENCE OR LOCATION OF THE CENTER BUT SUGGEST THAT IT\r\nMAY NOT BE WELL DEFINED AND THAT IT MAY NOT BE AS FAR WEST AS THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.  THESE ISSUES WILL HOPEFULLY BE RESOLVED\r\nBY THE NEXT ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ARE THE BASIS\r\nFOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 12.6N 124.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.1N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 13.6N 130.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 132.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.3N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 147.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-05-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER WELL WEST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS.  THE GFS SHOWS STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nPERSISTING OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND...IN COMBINATION\r\nWITH COOLER SSTS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL KEEP ANDRES ON\r\nA MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.  IN CONTRAST...THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAMS AND\r\nTHE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nTHEN NORTH...BUT ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW TO\r\nRESPOND TO A DEEP LAYER STEERING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 13.2N 126.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.9N 129.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.1N 132.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 14.2N 134.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.3N 137.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 14.5N 145.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 149.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-05-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ANDRES CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS WITH INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS JUST A\r\nSHAPELESS AREA OF CLOUDS ON IR IMAGES. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nCONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\nBECAUSE ANDRES IS RAPIDLY HEADING FOR STRONGER SHEAR AND COOL\r\nWATERS...IT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nANDRES IS MOVING 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nMORE TO WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL\r\nLIKELY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CONVECTIVE CELLS BEFORE DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 13.6N 128.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 131.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N 134.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 14.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-05-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003\r\n\r\nAS SEEN FOR THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF ANDRES.  HOWEVER...TONIGHTS BURST IS NOWHERE NEAR AS\r\nIMPRESSIVE AS THAT OF THE LAST TWO NIGHTS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THIS AND\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP.\r\n\r\nANDRES IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER...AND IT IS ENCOUNTERING\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nKEEPS ANDRES AS A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HR.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS...AS NONE OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO THE REMAINS OF THE\r\nSYSTEM FOR THAT LONG.  THE REMNANT LOW MAY WELL WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE BEFORE 96 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16.  ANDRES IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE\r\nWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS...AND CONTINUE A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.2N 131.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 14.4N 134.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 137.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 14.5N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-05-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003\r\n \r\nANDRES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-80C...NEAR A HARD-TO-FIND CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...\r\nWESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CONFINING THE CONVECTION TO THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA AGREE ON 35 KT...AND\r\nTHAT REMAINS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE PAST FEW QUIKSCAT PASSES HAVE MISSED ANDRES...BUT THE\r\nUPCOMING ONE SHOULD BE A HIT AND MIGHT SHED SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT ON\r\nTHE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nANDRES IS CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WILL BE PASSING UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE CURRENT\r\nSTRONG CONVECTIVE BURST MAY THEREFORE BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT\r\nONE...AND ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY CARRIES A CIRCULATION\r\nFOR 96 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nCURRENTLY 15 KT...THE CIRCULATION COULD EASILY OPEN UP INTO A WAVE\r\nBEFORE THEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.  AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS...ANDRES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AFTER\r\n12 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM MODEL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 14.2N 131.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.7N 133.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 14.9N 136.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 147.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 15.0N 150.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-05-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003\r\n \r\nAS IT OFTEN DOES...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS HAS COMPLICATED THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.  THE 1430Z PASS OVER ANDRES\r\nSHOWED SEVERAL PRESUMABLY GOOD 30 KT VECTORS NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.  AT ABOUT THIS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THERE WERE NUMEROUS 40-45 KT VECTORS.  I\r\nBELIEVE THAT THESE ARE PROBABLY VALID AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THERE WERE\r\nA COUPLE OF 50 KT VECTORS WELL NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER THAT\r\nARE MORE LIKELY CONTAMINATED.  MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nDIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING...AND WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nHEADED OVER COOLER WATERS I AM FACED WITH THE DILEMMA OF HAVING TO\r\nRAISE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT A TIME WHEN THE CYCLONE IS PROBABLY\r\nWEAKENING.  IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...ANDRES HAS BEEN A BIT STRONGER ALL\r\nALONG.\r\n \r\nANDRES IS CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WILL BE PASSING UNDER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBURST THAT IS CURRENTLY FADING MAY BE THE LAST SIGNIFICANT\r\nONE...AND ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY CARRIES A\r\nCIRCULATION FOR 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE\r\nCYCLONE... CURRENTLY 15 KT...THE CIRCULATION COULD EASILY OPEN UP\r\nINTO A WAVE BEFORE THEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS...ANDRES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST AFTER\r\n12 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS TRACK AND SHALLOW BAM\r\nSPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 14.6N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.0N 134.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 140.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 150.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-05-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2003\r\n \r\nIT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT BY LOOKING AT THE CURRENT IR IMAGES\r\nTHAT THERE WAS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE A FEW HOURS AGO.  THERE\r\nMUST HAVE BEEN ONE SINCE QUICKSCAT DATA INDICATED SO.  A TIGHT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF CONVECTION IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE\r\nLATEST AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION VIS IMAGES. THIS PATTERN COULD\r\nBARELY SUPPORT A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS USING SOLELY\r\nCONVENTIONAL DVORAK TECHNIQUE. NEVERTHERELESS...THE CYCLONE IS ON A\r\nWEAKENING TREND OVER COLD WATER AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE SWIRL IS MOVING 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD TURN MORE\r\nTO THE WEST AS IT SPINS DOWN GRADUALLY.  MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nDISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 24 HOUR OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 14.7N 134.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 136.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 147.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Andres","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-05-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SEEM TO HAVE DELIVERED A LETHAL BLOW\r\nTO ANDRES.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH\r\nNO SIGN OF A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP SIMILAR TO THE LAST THREE NIGHTS. \r\nTHE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MOSTLY 25-30 KT WINDS...WITH ONLY\r\nONE SUSPECT 35 KT WIND.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM AFWA...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY FROM SAB. \r\nBASED ON THE ABOVE...ANDRES IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION. \r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN 24-36 HR.  WHILE THE REMNANT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 72\r\nHR...NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM THAT LONG\r\nAND IT COULD WELL WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE BEFORE THEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14...AS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS MOSTLY CONCEALED BY CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL FLOW.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 14.9N 135.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 137.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 142.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Andres","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-05-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003\r\n \r\nANDRES CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST...270/13...AS A LOW-LEVEL VORTEX\r\nWITH NO DEEP CONVECTION. WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AHEAD AND COOL\r\nWATERS UNDERNEATH...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND\r\nDISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. ALTHOUGH REMNANT LOW\r\nPOSITIONS ARE BEING CARRIED THROUGH 36 HOURS...MOST RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING DEFORMED AND\r\nIS LIKELY TO OPEN UP BEFORE THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 14.7N 136.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.7N 138.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 14.7N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 14.7N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Andres","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-05-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH ANDRES THIS AFTERNOON.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...265/16...AND WITH\r\nTHIS RAPID MOTION IT IS NO LONGER OBVIOUS THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS\r\nA CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 00Z TODAY...AND GIVEN THE SHEAR...STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE...AND 25C WATER...NONE IS EXPECTED.  ANDRES IS BEGINNING\r\nTO DISSIPATE...AND THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST ONE.  \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 14.1N 138.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Andres","Adv":25,"Date":"2003-05-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2003\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY DEEP CONVECTION IN ANDRES FOR OVER 24 HOURS\r\nAND THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  THE SYSTEM IS CARRIED AS A\r\nREMNANT LOW FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST DISCUSSION ON ANDRES UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 14.1N 139.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 14.1N 141.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 14.2N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z DISSIPATED \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-06-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 16 2003\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTWO-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 OR 25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS RESULTING IN WEAK\r\nSTEERING FLOW AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE\r\nDEPRESSION VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS AND THEN DRIFT IT SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER THAT. ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS POORLY INITIALIZED THE CENTER AS MUCH AS 4\r\nDEGREES TOO FAR SOUTH...SO ONLY THE GENERAL MOTION TREND AND NOT\r\nTHE SPECIFIC VORTEX LOCATIONS WERE USED FOR THIS FORECAST. THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AT\r\n18Z...SO IT WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED ALONG WITH THE CLIPER AND DEEP BAM\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND AND POSSIBLE DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nWITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS OVER MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATER. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 43\r\nKT IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER DUE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS OUTPUT BEING BASED ON A RATHER FAST MEDIUM BAM FORECAST.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE AND THE ONLY\r\nREAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HOW MUCH...IF\r\nANY...DRY AIR FROM MEXICO WILL GET WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM. IF LAND\r\nEFFECTS AND DRY AIR DO NOT AFFECT THE CYCLONE...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT HURRICANE STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nNOTE: DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TUESDAY MORNING. THE TPC HAS BEEN\r\nUNABLE TO CONTACT THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE BY TELEPHONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 16.5N 103.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.1N 103.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 17.6N 103.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N 104.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 18.5N 105.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 18.5N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-06-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFGWC ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A POSITION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT\r\nABOUT 01Z SHOWED A TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST WITH\r\nTHE MOST LIKELY CENTER LOCATION...IF ANY...AT LEAST 100 N MI\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES.  RECENT\r\nTRMM AND SSMI PASSES ARE INCONCLUSIVE BUT FAVOR THE POSITION UNDER\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CHOICE OF LEAST REGRET OR WORST CASE\r\nSCENARIO IS TO OPT FOR THE CENTER UNDER THE CONVECTION.  PERHAPS\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL RESOLVE THIS QUESTION LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/05.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A\r\nVERY SLOW MOTION AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS\r\nWITH A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS IS THE BASIS OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT...2.0 FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES...AND THE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 30\r\nKNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS AS\r\nDID THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES THE SAME. \r\nIN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL FORECASTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THROUGH 120 HOURS. \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER TO WITHIN ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL\r\nMILES OF THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 24 TO 48 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH WOULD BE APPROPRIATE BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER\r\nATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE BY PHONE\r\nHAVE BEEN UNSUCCESSFUL...SO A WATCH WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL THERE IS\r\nCOMMUNICATION WITH THEM.  MEANWHILE...WORDING IN THE PUBLIC\r\nADVISORY WILL INDICATE THE THREAT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND\r\nHEAVY RAIN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHOUT\r\nSPECIFICALLY ISSUING A WATCH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 17.1N 103.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 17.8N 104.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 18.1N 104.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N 105.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 18.8N 106.9W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 108.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-06-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONCLUSIVE BUT IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTHWEST AS PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED. WE WILL ASSUME THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BUT THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DEVIATION FROM THIS TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED EXPANSION\r\nOF THE WIND FIELD WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS NEAR...OR AT...TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON\r\nAND 35 KT FROM THE AIR FORCE WEATHER AGENCY.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM\r\nIS SITUATED OVER VERY WARM WATER...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING\r\nRESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST BRINGS THE WINDS TO 50 KT AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM...BUT OF COURSE THEY LACK ADEQUATE\r\nRESOLUTION TO PROPERLY SIMULATE INTENSITY CHANGE.  CURIOUSLY...THE\r\nGFDL MODEL SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN LOSES IT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/RAPPAPORT\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 16.6N 103.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N 103.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.4N 103.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 17.8N 104.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 18.1N 104.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 105.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 107.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-06-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE TODAY...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER DISAPPEARING INTO THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB.  BASED ON THIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 340/2.  BLANCA IS SITTING\r\nIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGHING OVER TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TROUGH TO BE EVENTUALLY REPLACED BY RIDGING AS A NEW\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THIS PATTERN WILL\r\nLIKELY CAUSE SLOW MOTION INITIALLY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  WHILE SHOWING SPREAD...NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND IT HAS\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.  THUS...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FIRST 24-48 HR OF THE FORECAST IS VERY\r\nUNCERTAIN...AND WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS\r\nOF THE MEXICAN COAST IF BLANCA COMES CLOSER TO LAND THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nBLANCA IS IN A DIFFLUENT IF NOT DIVERGENT ENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE MODEL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE IN\r\nEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  THIS\r\nCOMBINED WITH GRADUAL MOVEMENT INTO COOLER WATER SHOULD STOP THE\r\nCURRENT ONGOING INTENSIFICATION IN 36-48 HR.  BLANCA IS A SMALL\r\nCYCLONE...AND SHOULD THE CENTRAL CORE CONSOLIDATE IT COULD POSSIBLY\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.\r\n\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSPREAD ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 16.7N 103.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 17.3N 104.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N 105.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 106.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-06-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUN 17 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF TROPICAL STORM BLANCA HAS WAXED AND\r\nWANED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...WITH ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BURST\r\nHAVING OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A\r\n17/1948Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED AN 80 PERCENT LOW-LEVEL EYEWALL\r\nHAD FORMED AT THAT TIME. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON\r\nCONSENSUS T3.0 OR 45 KT INTENSITY FROM ALL 3 SATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 290/2. THE TREND IN\r\nMICROWAVE POSITIONS THE PAST 18 HOURS ACTUALLY SUGGESTS A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD DRIFT HAS OCCURRED. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE EASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CYCLONE IS ACTING TO NUDGE THE SYSTEM\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN WHICH BLANCA IS\r\nCURRENTLY EMBEDDED WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE AS THE MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW BLANCA TO MOVE SLIGHTLY POLEWARD. BY 36\r\nHOURS...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO\r\nBUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVING IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD COOLER\r\nWATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nMEDIUM BAM...NOGAPS...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nEARLIER CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM A DYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST EAST OF BLANCA HAS BEEN ACTING TO ENHANCE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE SHEAR HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY AND THIS HAS ALLOWED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO REFORM NEAR THE CYCLONE CENTER. SINCE BLANCA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH MOST OF\r\nTHAT OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS BLANCA UP TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING ENSUES AFTERWARDS\r\nAS THE CYCLONE BEGINS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 16.6N 103.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 16.8N 104.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 104.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N 105.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 105.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 106.8W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 108.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 18.0N 109.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-06-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2003\r\n\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM HAS DETERIORATED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW RATHER\r\nAMORPHOUS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND \r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WILL\r\nPERSIST OVER BLANCA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A\r\nLITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BLANCA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CROSS OVER A SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT AND ENTER AN AREA\r\nOF COOLER THAN NORMAL WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT MOTION AS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN\r\nILL-DEFINED.  A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF BLANCA WHICH WOULD INDUCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5 FOLLOWING THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nSHIP OBSERVATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BLANCA IS A RATHER\r\nSMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 16.6N 103.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.8N 104.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N 104.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.2N 105.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 17.4N 105.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 108.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-06-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUN 18 2003\r\n\r\nBLANCA HAS CONSOLIDATED THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nDEVELOPING CDO...WHILE MEXICAN RADAR FROM CUYUTLAN SHOWS A GOOD...\r\nTHOUGH INCORRECTLY NAVIGATED...BANDING PATTERN.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...BLANCA MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER GIVEN THE RADAR\r\nAPPEARANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 320/2.  BLANCA REMAINS IN A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE IS SLOWLY BUILDING BETWEEN THE STORM AND\r\nTROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHERN U. S.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE TROUGHING SHOULD BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE AS A NEW TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER\r\nBLANCA SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A NEW WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THUS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES HINT THAT BLANCA\r\nMAY BE FURTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY ANALYZED.  IF SO...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL NEED TO BE REVISED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBLANCA REMAINS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW...SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN\r\nFAVORABLE FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...35-50 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES\r\nSHOULD DEVELOP AND SHEAR THE SYSTEM. BLANCA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nDEVELOP UNTIL THEN...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HR.\r\nAFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF SHEAR...COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  BLANCA REMAINS A SMALL\r\nCYCLONE...ABOUT 200 N MI IN DIAMETER...AND THUS COULD BOTH\r\nSTRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 16.8N 104.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.1N 104.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N 104.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 105.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 17.7N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 109.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 111.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-06-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUN 18 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TRYING TO BECOME EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE\r\nOF THE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION IS\r\nSTRONG AND PERSISTENT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nNUDGED UPWARD TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/2.  THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE.\r\nBLANCA IS IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH RIDGING\r\nFORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nIT TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEVELOPING TROUGH NEAR THE U. S. WEST\r\nCOAST.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS ON THE SPEED. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND IS KEPT SLOW IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nBLANCA REMAINS IN A EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...SHOWING\r\nFAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\n24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...35-45 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES SHOULD DEVELOP AND\r\nSHEAR THE SYSTEM. BLANCA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL\r\nTHEN...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HR.  AFTER THAT...A\r\nCOMBINATION OF SHEAR...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND DRY\r\nAIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THAT BEING SAID...THE DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON HINTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE STRONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY ANALYZED.  IF THIS CONTINUES...BLANCA MAY NOT STRENGTHEN\r\nAS MUCH AS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.8N 104.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.9N 104.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.1N 105.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 17.2N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 106.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-06-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUN 18 2003\r\n \r\nAS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST 2 DAYS...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO FLUCTUATE QUITE DRAMATICALLY BETWEEN THE DAY AND NIGHTIME\r\nPERIODS AND BLANCA IS CURRENTLY GOING THROUGH ANOTHER WANING PERIOD\r\nIN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. EARLIER IMAGES DURING THE DAY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT AN EYE WAS TRYING TO APPEAR IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY...BUT\r\nEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nPROCESS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO\r\n55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nBLANCA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER GIVEN ITS RATHER COMPACT SIZE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/03.  THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORY PACKAGES.\r\nBLANCA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH\r\nA SLIGHT WESTERLY NUDGE BEING INDUCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY\r\nFLOW. WHILE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE NHC TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD. THIS APPEARS\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN...ALBEIT WEAK...THAT\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF BLANCA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nBLANCA MAY BE SMALL...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS IN\r\nFIGHTING OFF INTERMITTENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. THE\r\nCYCLONE PROBABLY ONLY HAS ONE MORE 12-18 HOUR PERIOD REMAINING\r\nTONIGHT WHEN DEEP CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER AND\r\nPOSSIBLY ALLOW BLANCA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER THAT...ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE\r\nTO SOUTHEASTERLY AT 35-45 KT. THE COMBINATION OF COOLER SSTS AND\r\nINCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING\r\nTREND BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.7N 104.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.8N 105.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.9N 105.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 106.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 16.9N 107.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N 108.3W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 16.8N 110.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 16.8N 112.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-06-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUN 19 2003\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nALTHOUGH SOME CELLS ARE NOW RE-DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS HIGHER\r\nTHAN 35 KT.  ALTHOUGH BLANCA WAS NEAR THE EDGE OF THE SWATH...WHERE\r\nTHE WIND DATA ARE SOMEWHAT LESS RELIABLE...THESE OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE PROBLEMATIC WHEN A SYSTEM HAS SO LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT\r\nHIGHEST CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE\r\n45 KT.  THE WEAKENING WAS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND A COOLING OF THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH THIS\r\nSLOW-MOVING SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODEL 200 MB WIND FORECASTS INDICATE\r\nTHAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL INCREASE\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN VIEW OF THIS...AND BLANCA'S RECENT\r\nWEAKENING TREND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES. INDEED...UNLESS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES A MAJOR COMEBACK SOON...BLANCA MAY MEET ITS\r\nDEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY...WHICH\r\nPICKS UP SOME OF THE LOW CLOUD LINES...SUGGESTS THAT IT IS IN\r\nABOUT THE SAME PLACE AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  BLANCA REMAINS\r\nSITUATED NEAR A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 16.5N 104.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.5N 105.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.5N 105.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 106.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 107.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-06-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 19 2003\r\n \r\nA NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BLANCA DURING THE PAST FEW HR. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  SHIP\r\n9VID2 REPORTED 28 KT AND 1004.5 MB ABOUT 40 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER AS 12Z...SUGGESTING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB.\r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nBLANCA REMAINS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY IN A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IF ANYTHING...IT HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY.  LARGE SCALE-MODELS INDICATE WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WILL PERSIST NEAR THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WITH SOME RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF BLANCA GIVING IT A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD NUDGE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...BUT ARE UNANIMOUSLY SLOW.\r\nTHE BAMS AND NHC 91 CALL FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nAND ARE MUCH FASTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE SLOW\r\nMOTION OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nBLANCA CONTINUES IN EASTERLY SHEAR...AND TENDENCY ANALYSES FROM\r\nCIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THE SHEAR HAS\r\nINCREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HR.  ADDTIONALLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS COMBINATION SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDOW IS CLOSING ON\r\nCHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SHOW INCREASED\r\nSHEAR AFTER 24 HR...AND EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK NOW KEEPS\r\nBLANCA OVER WARM SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES THE SHEAR SHOULD BE\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO KILL IT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO\r\nEVENTUAL DISSIPATION IN 96-120 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE SHIP\r\nREPORT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 16.4N 104.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.2N 105.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 105.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 106.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 110.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-06-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 19 2003\r\n \r\nINTERESTING STRUCTURAL CHANGES OCCURRED WITH BLANCA THIS AFTERNOON. \r\nSSM/I AND AMSU OVERPASSES FROM 14Z-16Z INDICATED AN EYE WAS\r\nPRESENT.  SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nFRAGMENTED...SUGGESTING WHATEVER DEVELOPMENT WAS UNDERWAY HAS\r\nSTOPPED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45\r\nKT...BUT THERE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT VALUE. \r\n\r\nBLANCA IS DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD IN A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE SCALE-MODELS INDICATE WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME\r\nRIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF BLANCA GIVING IT A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nNUDGE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN A NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...BUT ARE UNANIMOUSLY SLOW.  THE BAM MODELS\r\nAND NHC91 CALL FOR A MUCH FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE SLOW MOTION OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER FORMING SOUTHEAST OF BLANCA...WHICH MAY TRY TO ABSORB\r\nBLANCA INSTEAD OF LETTING IT MOVE WEST.\r\n \r\nSOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS INCREASING OVER BLANCA...AND THE\r\nRESULTING SHEAR MAY BE CAUSING THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BREAKDOWN. \r\nDRY AIR AND STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NEAR THE STORM ARE LIKELY\r\nNOT HELPING MATTERS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASED SHEAR\r\nFOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO THE\r\nDEMISE OF BLANCA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN STEADY AT 45\r\nKT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR IN CASE THIS UP AND DOWN SYSTEM TRIES TO\r\nINTENSITY ONE MORE TIME...THEN CALLS FOR WEAKENING. ONCE WEAKENING\r\nBEGINS IT MAY BE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED UPWARD BASED ON A REPORT FROM THE\r\nSHIP OXKT2.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 16.1N 104.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.9N 105.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.8N 105.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.8N 106.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.9N 107.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.0N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-06-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 19 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA LIKELY PEAKED AROUND 15Z-16Z WHEN SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE\r\nDATA INDICATED A LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. SINCE THEN...IT\r\nHAS BEEN ALL DOWN HILL. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VIRTUALLY NO\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED\r\nWELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED\r\nTO 40 KT BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 225/03. NOW THAT BLANCA\r\nHAS LOST ITS CENTRAL DEEP CONVETCION...THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS\r\nLIKELY DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW BEING STEERED MORE BY THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WEAK\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO. A SLOW SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD\r\nDRIFT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT\r\n48-72 HOURS...AND THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.\r\nBLANCA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN TURN MORE WESTWARD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL TRACK MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER BLANCA...BUT\r\nAS THE CYCLONE DRIFTS FARTHER SOUTHWEST...THE SHEAR COULD ACTUALLY\r\nWEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...\r\nBLANCA SHOULD BEGIN EXPERIENCING 30-40 KT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE MAY BE BRIEF\r\nPERIODS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OR BURSTING...ESPECIALLY AT\r\nNIGHT...FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND\r\nSHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING TO OCCUR DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A FIELD\r\nOF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. IF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT\r\nRE-DEVELOP...THEN A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING WILL OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 15.8N 105.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 15.7N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.6N 106.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 15.6N 106.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 107.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.9N 110.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-06-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER BEING DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...NEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT BLANCA IS BARELY A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM BUT BECAUSE THERE WAS THERE WAS AN EXTREMELY WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER ON THE 0347Z TRMM PASSAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. EVERY SINGLE MODEL BUT CLIMATOLOGY WEAKENS\r\nBLANCA IN THE SHORT TERM...PRIMARILY THE NCEP GFS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AND BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BUT IT COULD BE SOONER. THE WEAKENING WILL\r\nLIKELY BE CAUSED BY SHEAR SINCE THE SSTS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO\r\nMAINTAIN THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nBLANCA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR SOUTH OF DUE WEST. A WESTWARD\r\nDRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  IN ADDITION...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND GUIDANCE.        \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 15.6N 105.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 15.6N 106.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.6N 107.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.8N 107.6W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.9N 108.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-06-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA HAS HAD ANOTHER MAJOR CONVECTIVE BURST THIS MORNING. \r\nHOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT IN THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/3.  BLANCA IS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATING THAT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS SHOULD KEEP BLANCA ON A SLOW WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT SPEEDWISE\r\nBETWEEN THE SLOWER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FASTER NHC91/BAMD\r\nMODELS.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL STAY SLOW AND SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ONE ALTERNATE POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE LARGE BUT\r\nDISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF THE GULF OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC MAY CHANGE THE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH FOR BLANCA TO\r\nMOVE EASTWARD...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDN.  SHOULD THAT OCCUR...THE\r\nLARGER DISTURBANCE WOULD LIKELY ABSORB THE SMALLER BLANCA.\r\n\r\nBLANCA WILL CONTINUE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATING SOME\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR AFTER 24 HR.  THIS SHEAR...AIDED BY EXTENSIVE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS NEAR THE\r\nSTORM...SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH BLANCA SHOULD\r\nREMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A STEADY-STATE STORM FOR 24 HR FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 15.5N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 106.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.6N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N 108.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-06-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA HAS SHEARED APART THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...WHILE\r\nTHE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD.  THERE IS\r\nNOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. \r\nBASED ON THIS AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 1455Z THAT SHOWED AT BEST\r\n30-35 KT WINDS...BLANCA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN STATIONARY AND A WESTWARD\r\nDRIFT.  THERE IS ONE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE\r\nMORNING PACKAGE.  IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nBLANCA...THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERN END OF A\r\nTROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE GULF OF\r\nTEHAUNTEPEC.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW JUST\r\nSOUTH OF BLANCA FEEDING INTO THE DISTURBANCE.  NHC GUIDANCE...SAVE\r\nTHE GFDN...STILL FORECASTS A WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO...BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT BLANCA OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nCOULD BE PULLED EASTWARD AND ABSORBED INTO THE DISTURBANCE AS SHOWN\r\nBY THE GFDN.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE TRACK RECORD OF BLANCA...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR\r\nCONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS THAT COULD BRIEFLY CAUSE SOME STRENGTHENING. \r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND SHOULD BE DOWN MAINLY DUE\r\nTO SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION.  SHOULD CONVECTION NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...BLANCA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 15.5N 106.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 107.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.6N 107.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.8N 108.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-06-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 20 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE EXCEPTION\r\nOF A RECENT SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nHIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING QUICKLY FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE SWIRL\r\nINDICATIVE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS AFFECTED BLANCA.  THIS\r\nUNFAVORABLE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BLANCA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE SOON.    THE WIND SPEED IS IS DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED\r\nON DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN A VERY SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nALL INDICATE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW WITH\r\nDIRECTIONS OF MOTION VARYING FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD DRIFT UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION PREVENTS ME FROM MAKING THIS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 15.3N 106.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.2N 106.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.4N 107.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 15.6N 107.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N 108.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-06-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION BUT STILL HAS\r\nA SURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT\r\nSO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN 12 HOURS OR SO. SOME PATCHES OF \r\nINTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAY STILL DEVELOP. \r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 15.3N 106.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.3N 107.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-06-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BLANCA IS FARTHER EAST THAN\r\nEARLIER THOUGHT. OVERNIGHT THE CYCLONE GENERATED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS DRIVING THE WEAKENING CONVECTION FARTHER\r\nFROM THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND BLANCA\r\nSHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 1230Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 25 KT. THIS\r\nPASS ALSO PROVIDES A NICE EXAMPLE OF HOW OBJECTIVE AMBIGUITY-\r\nREMOVAL ALGORITHMS CAN GO ASTRAY IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION IS APPARENT IN THE AMBIGUITIES BUT NOT IN THE\r\nRETRIEVED VECTORS.\r\n\r\nBLANCA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 15.5N 106.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-06-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A SOMEWHAT\r\nEGG-SHAPED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL SITTING UNDER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES. STILL...BLANCA IS OVER 28C WATER AND HAS GENERATED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION EACH OF THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...AND IT COULD EASILY DO SO\r\nAGAIN TONIGHT. IN FACT...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nBLANCA TO REGAIN STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...AND\r\nSO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY. \r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AROUND BLANCA IS WEAK...WITH A BROAD\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE INTERFERING WITH A\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL DESTINY OF A COLD-WATER DEATH.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nREMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED WHILE THE\r\nSYSTEM WINDS DOWN. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 15.5N 106.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-06-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA IS HANGING ON BY A THREAD.  IT IS PRODUCING SOME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ON THE SOUTH-SIDE OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER BUT\r\nCONTINUES TO BATTLE THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. BLANCA IS\r\nOVER 28C WATER AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CALL\r\nFOR BLANCA TO REGAIN STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL MORE DAYS...AND\r\nSO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL DECAY.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AROUND BLANCA REMAINS WEAK AND THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS DRIFTED TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY AND LITTLE NET\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 15.6N 105.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.6N 105.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.6N 105.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 105.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-06-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUN 22 2003\r\n \r\nUNLIKE THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NIGHTS...BLANCA HAS NOT MADE A\r\nCONVECTIVE COMEBACK. THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT WISE TO\r\nKILL A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT NIGHT SINCE CONVECTION CAN ALWAYS\r\nREDEVELOP...SO BLANCA IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPCIAL CYCLONE FOR\r\nONE MORE ADVISORY UNTIL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE.\r\nTHERE ARE NO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ANY OF THE THREE\r\nAGENCIES... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS WHICH SHOWED A 25 KT NON-RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDSPEED AND A\r\nTIGHT LOW-CLOUD SWIRL PATTERN SEEN IN A 22/0437Z SSMI OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/03. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL\r\nOVER THE COMPASS...WHICH USUALLY INDICATES A SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nTHE BEST COURSE OF ACTION. SINCE BLANCA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM...IT IS MAINLY BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY A LONG FETCH OF\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO MEXICO. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A SLOW EASTERLY\r\nCOMPROMISE.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM-RELATIVE SHEAR HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED ACROSS BLANCA SINCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD INTO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW. UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS FAIRLY QUICKLY...\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BE\r\nABSORBED INTO THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nFROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL\r\nDISSIPATION IS FORECAST AND THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH DISSIPATES BLANCA IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48\r\nHOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF\r\nTHE LARGE DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF BLANCA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 15.8N 105.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.9N 104.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.9N 104.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-06-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUN 22 2003\r\n \r\nBLANCA IS DISSIPATING.  VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH A\r\nFEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION.  AMSU DATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nIS RATHER SHALLOW...AND...BASED ON A PROBABLE SPINDOWN FROM LAST\r\nNIGHT'S QUIKSCAT PASS...THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NO MORE\r\nTHAN 20 KT.  THE DYING SYSTEM COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME INTERMITTENT\r\nCONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BLANCA. FOR ANY ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THIS SYSTEM...REFER TO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 16.0N 104.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N 104.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-06-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUN 25 2003\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS\r\nBECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...ENOUGH SO TO\r\nWARRANT ITS CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST AND\r\nTHERE IS EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  GIVEN THESE\r\nFACTORS...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THE GFS INDICATES THAT THE 200 MB FLOW WILL BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE LATER IN THE PERIOD AND...IF THIS VERIFIES...THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE...295/10...IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THERE IS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH\r\nIS PREDICTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WOULD\r\nWEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENT OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ROUGHLY PARALLEL THE COAST OF MEXICO...BUT\r\nONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THIS FORECAST COULD BRING\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  THEREFORE A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST\r\nOF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 14.4N  98.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N  99.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.8N 101.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N 102.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N 103.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N 105.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-06-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING QUITE DISORGANIZED AROUND 04Z...CONVECTION IS\r\nRE-DEVELOPING IN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHREE-E. THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS WELL AS 30 KT WINDS INDICATED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER ON TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/7.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THIS FEATURE SHOULD SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nDEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD ON THE SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HR...THEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND\r\n120 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL.\r\n\r\nTD 3-E IS CURRENTLY IS A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER\r\n24-36 HR...WHICH WOULD CREATE A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nFOR THE FIRST 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY FASTER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE\r\n24-72 HR PERIOD.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nARE BOTH STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IF THE SYSTEM STAYS\r\nOFFSHORE AND THE SHEAR DECREASES AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nGET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLELS THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND\r\nANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THUS REMAINS IN\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL\r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 14.5N  98.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N  99.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N 100.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.4N 102.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.9N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 111.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-06-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 26 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED BUT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...ALTHOUGH ELONGATED DUE TO SHEAR...IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. \r\nBECAUSE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...NOT AS MUCH AS THE\r\nGFDL THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS IN 30 ABOUT HOURS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL...MEXICO INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...SOON\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH WILL PROVIDE A\r\nSLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING.  THIS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nON THIS TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE AND\r\nPARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.  A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING THUS REMAINS IN FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS\r\nCOULD BE REQUIRED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO. \r\n\r\nBY DAYS 4 AND 5..THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 14.6N  98.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.4N  99.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 100.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.6N 101.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.0N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N 105.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-06-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2003\r\n \r\nCARLOS IS STRENGTHENING. THIS IS BASED ON DATA FROM THE SHIP V7AM9\r\nWHICH REPORTED 40 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 1005.8 MB NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND ON SATELLITE IMAGES THAT SHOW A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND\r\nWRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  UNANIMOUSLY...DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE\r\nSHEAR IS DECREASING AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF CARLOS BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH\r\nLAND.\r\n \r\nRADAR FROM PUERTO ANGEL...MEXICO AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT\r\nCARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE DAY WHILE\r\nREORGANIZING BUT...THE OVERALL SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORCE CARLOS TO MOVE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF CARLOS VERY\r\nNEAR...OR ON...THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 3 OR 4\r\nDAYS. IF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...WEAKENING MAY NOT OCCUR AS\r\nINDICATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CENTER MOVES FURTHER\r\nINLAND...A FASTER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD TO SALINA CRUZ AND DISCONTINUED\r\nWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 15.1N  97.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.7N  97.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N  98.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 17.0N 100.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 101.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 103.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-06-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 26 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE STRENGTHENING EPISODE NOTED\r\nEARLIER HAS ENDED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION WITH LAND.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T3.0...45\r\nKT.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...PARTICULARLY THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS...ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS\r\nLESSENED AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING\r\nESTABLISHED OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST.  OBVIOUSLY THE\r\nFUTURE INTENSITY OF CARLOS IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK.  IF\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WOULD TAKE PLACE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER IF THE CENTER REMAINS JUST\r\nOFFSHORE...THE STORM COULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH...OR EVEN\r\nINTENSIFY.  AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHWARD MOTION WAS UNEXPECTED. IT HAD BEEN PRESUMED THAT THE\r\nSTRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WOULD\r\nFORCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER THE STEERING OF CARLOS\r\nAPPARENTLY HAS BEEN INFLUENCED MORE BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO INTO THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE...WITHIN WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EMBEDDED. \r\nTHIS TROUGH COULD CARRY CARLOS INLAND VERY SOON. HOWEVER THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS BASED ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT THE ANTICYCLONE WILL SOON BECOME THE MORE DOMINANT\r\nSTEERING FEATURE.  THUS THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST LINE\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN NEPP AND THE RADAR AT PUERTO\r\nANGEL MEXICO HAVE BEEN VERY USEFUL FOR THE TRACKING OF CARLOS OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 15.7N  97.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N  98.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.6N  99.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.0N 100.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.4N 101.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-06-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003\r\n \r\nCARLOS TRIED TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MADE LANDFALL.  SSM/I\r\nOVERPASSES AT 0220Z AND 0321Z INDICATED THAT A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAD\r\nFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...WITH THE LATTER OVERPASS\r\nSHOWING THE EYE CROSSING THE MEXICAN COAST.  BASED ON THE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE AT THAT TIME...WHICH INCLUDED AN OCCASIONAL WARM\r\nSPOT...IT IS BELIEVED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 55 KT. \r\nSINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DECAYED AS THE CENTER HAS EDGED\r\nINLAND.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD DEFLECT CARLOS MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nNHC TRACK GUIDANCE.  OF COURSE...ALL OF THESE THINGS WERE SEEN LAST\r\nNIGHT AND CARLOS WOUND UP MOVING NORTHWARD.  GIVEN THAT CAVEAT...\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nIN THE NEXT 12 HR...WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CENTER\r\nJUST INLAND THROUGH 72 HR...THEN HAVE IT EMERGE OVER THE PACIFIC\r\nWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EXTREMELY PROBLEMATIC.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOS TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION YET SURVIVE\r\nOVER LAND FOR 72 HR.  EVEN IF THE STORM STAYS AS CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nAS FORECAST THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY\r\nDEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER BACK TO\r\nTHE PACIFIC AND ALLOW CARLOS TO EITHER STRENGTHEN OR WEAKEN MORE\r\nSLOWLY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WOULD\r\nRESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS...AND THAT EVEN IF\r\nCARLOS SURVIVES THE WATERS WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES ARE TOO COLD TO\r\nSUPPORT SIGNIFICANT RE-DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS WITH ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL CARLOS EITHER MOVES OUT OR\r\nCOMPLETELY DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 16.4N  97.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.8N  98.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.2N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N 101.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 104.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 21.0N 109.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlos","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-06-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE\r\nEXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER ADVIORIES WILL\r\nBE ISSUED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE TIME SO THAT IT CAN BE DETERMINED\r\nFOR SURE THAT CARLOS HAS TOTALLY DISSIPATED.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 30 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR APPEARANCE\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT MUCH OF WHATEVER\r\nCIRCULATION EXISTS IS OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  ALL WARNINGS FOR\r\nMEXICO ARE DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AND SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE REINTENSIFICATION WHEN THE\r\nCENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATER.  A 48 HOUR TRACK FORECAST IS MADE\r\nEVEN THOUGH IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LAST THAT\r\nLONG.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 16.7N  98.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N  99.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 101.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 18.4N 103.5W    15 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlos","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-06-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2003\r\n \r\nADDITONAL VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY CONFIRM THAT\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 16.7N  99.9W    25 KT DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-07-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003\r\n \r\nA RATHER IMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPED OVER\r\nTHE EP942003 SUSPECT AREA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS RESULTING\r\nIN DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC RESPECTIVELY. \r\nWHILE THERE WAS NO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER ON YESTERDAY'S VISIBLE IMAGERY AND EVEN THOUGH RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA ARE AMBIGUOUS...IT IS A COURSE OF LEAST\r\nREGRET TO ISSUE A DEPRESSION ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/10.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR 72 HOURS.  THERE IS A CUT-OFF\r\nMID-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N 143W WHICH COULD INCREASE THE NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS BUT ONLY IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT\r\nBEEN REDUCED TO A LOW LEVEL SWIRL.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWHICH DIAGNOSES LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...NOW OR FORECAST...BUT\r\nINCREASINGLY COLDER SSTS ARE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WHICH ARE THE\r\nLIMITING FACTOR.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 13.9N 116.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.7N 117.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 16.8N 123.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.8N 123.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-07-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION OF TD-04E IS RATHER UNCERTAIN DUE TO CIRRUS\r\nBLOWOFF TO THE EAST WHICH IS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HAVING\r\nSAID THAT...THE CYCLONE LOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK USING AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF 295/10...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE AVERAGE MOTION OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND ASSUMING THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. \r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OTHER THAN TO\r\nBRING IT SOUTHWARD JUST A TAD AND ALSO TO ADD A 120-HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOSITION. THE PREVIOUS SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST HAD THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATING IN 96-120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THAT OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE\r\nMUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE\r\nDEPRESSION SLOWER THAN ALL THE BAM MODELS AND IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MODEL TRACKS BUT USING ROUGHLY THE\r\nSPEED OF THE GFS MODEL. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A FAIRLY\r\nSTRONG E-W ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nTHROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL EROSION OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE RIDGE BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...WHETHER OR NOT THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nPOLEWARD BY 120 HOURS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE EXACT STRENGTH AND\r\nVERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME. THE NOGAPS MODEL WAS\r\nDISCOUNTED SINCE IT MOVES THE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS FOR NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL REASONS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE STRONG\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE PAST MOTION OF AT LEAST 10 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS\r\nWHICH SHOULD HELP TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT AND/OR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...WEAKENING SHEAR OF LESS\r\nTHAN 5 KT SHOULD ALLOW GOOD OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP...WHICH IN TURN\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 14.3N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 14.9N 118.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 16.2N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.8N 124.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 17.8N 128.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-07-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES PART OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE. HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ROTATING\r\nCYCLONICALLY AROUND ANOTHER LARGER CENTER CLOSER INTO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. EITHER WAY...THE INITIAL POSITION IS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS ALSO BEEN UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM DOLORES BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY. OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE\r\nDUE TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...SO WAS THE\r\nPREVIOUS 12Z POSITION WHICH MAKES THE STORM MOTION ABOUT 300/11.\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING\r\nOTHER THAN TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE TO THE NORTH\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION. AFTER THAT...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS AGREE WITH\r\nTAKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF DOLORES.\r\nTHE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WEAK WILL THE CYCLONE WILL IN 72 HOURS.\r\nSINCE DOLORES WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 48 HOURS...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME SHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL...AND\r\nBE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. \r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING DOLORES TO PEAK AT AROUND 43 KT IN\r\n24 TO 48 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER SUB-25C SSTS. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nDOLORES COULD DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 15.2N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 15.7N 119.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 16.4N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.9N 123.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 17.3N 125.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 132.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-07-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2003\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME EXPOSED A FEW HOURS AGO...AS DOLORES\r\nCONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ALSO DIMINISHED...HOWEVER THIS IS PROBABLY A DIURNAL\r\nFLUCTUATION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 KT TO\r\n45 KT. THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY....ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THERE IS A RATHER\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTH OF DOLORES AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nPRESENCE OF BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nDECREASING SHEAR BUT CALLS FOR NEGLIGIBLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THE\r\nPRESENCE OF THE STABLE AIR MASS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR A DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY\r\nWEAKENING OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS.\r\n\r\nAS THE EXPOSED CENTER BECAME CLEAR...IT WAS NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE\r\nTRACK EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. \r\nDOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD AND SLOWER INITIAL\r\nMOTION...THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nTRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...EXCEPT FOR THE BETA ADVECTION AND\r\nBAROTROPIC MODELS WHICH ARE FASTER AND TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTH LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 16.3N 118.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 17.4N 121.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N 125.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 132.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolores","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-07-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 07 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED AND IS DISPLACED TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION AND DOLORES IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.   A BURST OR TWO OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN\r\nTHE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES A RATHER\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS AS WELL AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9.  DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALL\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.   THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A NORMAL CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK THAT FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 16.7N 119.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 17.3N 121.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 18.9N 125.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolores","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-07-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 07 2003\r\n \r\nDOLORES IS CURRENTLY DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCLOUD CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB-25C WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES.  A BRIEF BURST OR TWO OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY OCCUR\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION WHERE THE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER. HOWEVER...IT\r\nIS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP\r\nNEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER.\r\n\r\nALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER\r\nTHAT. THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERNMOST OF ALL THE MODELS AND LOSES THE\r\nSYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. THE GFDL DISSIPATES DOLORES EVEN SOONER IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...IT SHOULD REMAIN A\r\nSHALLOW VERTICAL SYSTEM AND BE STEERED IN A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nDOLORES WILL REMAIN OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER EVEN\r\nCOOLER WATER. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING AND A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN\r\nOF THE VORTEX IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...DESPITE\r\nFAIRLY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 17.2N 120.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.8N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 18.4N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 19.6N 128.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolores","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-07-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2003\r\n \r\nDOLORES REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND A 07/1358Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED ONLY 20-25 KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS OVER SUB-24C WATER TEMPERATURES AND ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY TO\r\nALLOW ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO FOR THE WIND FIELD TO SPIN DOWN.\r\n \r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION OF DOLORES IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nAND EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASINS.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DOLORES WILL REMAIN OVER 24C OR LESS SSTS\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND...THEREFORE... NO REGENERATION IS\r\nEXPECTED. AS SUCH...DISSIPATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD OCCUR\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 17.5N 121.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.9N 123.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 18.3N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 18.6N 127.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.8N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolores","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-07-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2003\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...DOLORES IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEGENERATING\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW.  SOME SPORADIC FLAREUPS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE IN THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOLORES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 17.7N 122.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 18.2N 123.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 18.6N 126.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 19.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-07-10 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM PDT THU JUL 10 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION IN THE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO INITIATE\r\nADVISORIES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON THE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SUFFERING FROM STRONG NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR MAY LESSEN OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS WILL AFFORD THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY\r\nTO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD MAINTAIN\r\nITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1700Z 14.3N 107.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 14.4N 108.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N 110.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.7N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-07-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2003\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM AFWA AND 30 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nCONSISTS OF A TIGHT INNER SWIRL WITH LIMITED CONVECTION EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND THIS WILL PROBABLY\r\nSLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE INNER CORE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nSHEAR PATTERN DOES NOT LOOK AS UNFAVORABLE AS IT DID EARLIER...AND\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LESSEN. \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE DECREASING\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS SO THERE IS A LIMITED TIME FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SEEM NOT TO BE ANALYZING THE INNER VORTEX WELL AND\r\nTHEIR EXPLICIT TRACK GUIDANCE MAY NOT BE THAT USEFUL. HOWEVER...\r\nTHESE MODELS MAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND THEREFORE I EXPECT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...A WESTWARD TURN IS LIKELY\r\nWHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND\r\nOF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GFDL AND BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nRELATIVELY STRONG WINDS...TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...EXTEND\r\nABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 14.8N 108.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.4N 109.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.1N 112.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 16.9N 114.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-07-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 10 2003\r\n \r\nA FEW BURSTS OF COLD-TOP CONVECTION HAVE FIRED OFF NEAR THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nOBSERVED EARLIER WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED.\r\nTHIS MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT SOME CONSOLIDATION OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nBEGINNING. NONETHELESS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 25 KT\r\nFROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AFWA...TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN AN ENVIROMENT OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AT THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LESSENING OF THE\r\nSHEAR IN THE FORECAST. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO\r\n45 KT IN 24 HOURS THEN MAINTAINS THIS INTENSITY WITH GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE 24 TO 36\r\nHOUR TIMEFRAME...NARROWING THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE 18 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS A MUCH\r\nBETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE INNER VORTEX OF THE CYCLONE. IT \r\nMOVES THE DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A WESTWARD TURN IS\r\nLIKELY WHEN THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND STEERING IS GOVERNED BY THE LOW\r\nLEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BUT TURNS THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 15.0N 109.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.6N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 16.4N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 124.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 129.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-07-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nRATHER INTENSE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...MAKING THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE SCATTER IN\r\nTHE FIX POSITONS PROVIDED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER\r\n...11/0107Z QUIKSCAT AND 11/0451Z SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES CONFIRM\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION SHOULD BE RELOCATED FARTHER SOUTH. IN ADDITION\r\nTO THE RELOCATION...THE RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EMBEDDED AT LEAST 30 NMI WITHIN THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF -70C CLOUD TOPS. BASED ON CONSENSUS 30 KT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE RAPIDLY IMPROVING CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE NEW CENTER LOCATION...THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBEEN UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09...BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE\r\nFIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. ENRIQUE IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nMODEST DEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INSISTS ON TAKING THE CYCLONE MORE POLEWARD INITIALLY AND\r\nTHEN TURNING IT WESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE UKMET IS THE\r\nFARTHEST NORTH WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND P91E MODELS BEING THE\r\nFARTHEST SOUTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE REACTING TO AN\r\nINITIALIZED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 400 NMI WEST OF\r\nENRIQUE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER-LOW\r\nNO LONGER EXISTS AND THAT EASTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT WEST OF ENRIQUE.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE BETWEEN THE P91E AND GFS MODELS.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE RECENT IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A FORECAST\r\nFOR THE EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR TO WEAKEN...ENRIQUE ONLY HAS A\r\nNARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE IS IT EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE OVER SUB-25C SSTS BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nMOST OF THE STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. HOWEVER...IF ENRIQUE SLOWS\r\nDOWN A LITTLE MORE...THEN THERE WOULD BE MORE TIME OVER WARM WATER\r\nAND THE STORM COULD BE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 14.7N 109.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 111.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.5N 114.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 16.4N 116.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.2N 119.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-07-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE\r\nIS NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE BUT UNDERNEATH THE DEEP COLD CONVECTION. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB AND 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB.  IF THE CENTER IS WHERE I THINK IT IS THEN ENRIQUE HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40\r\nKT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY AND THE WATERS\r\nWILL REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO...SO SOME CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS\r\nAGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...THOUGH...WHICH BRINGS ENRIQUE\r\nTO 55 KT.  IF VISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nWELL-EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION THEN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL NEED TO BE BUMPED UP FURTHER.  COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN PULLED LEFTWARD OVER THE LAST 12\r\nHOURS...PERHAPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE RETURNS THE\r\nCYCLONE TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nTHIS WEAKNESS IS APPARENT IN WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS\r\nALONG THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ONCE THE SYSTEM\r\nBEGINS TO DECAY IT SHOULD RETURN TO A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 14.8N 110.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 15.1N 112.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.0N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-07-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nENRIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPROVED BANDING EVEN THOUGH THE AREAL\r\nCOVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING WITH THE DIURNAL CYCLE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 45 KT AND THAT IS THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO\r\nDIMINISH AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPROVING.  DESPITE THIS...\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAPPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH MAY\r\nBE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...MY INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN STEADILY\r\nSLOWING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS WAS NOT FORECAST BY ANY OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW TRANSLATION\r\nSPEEDS OF 12-13 KT OR SO.  AS A GROUP...THE MODELS HAVE ALSO HAD A\r\nRIGHTWARD BIAS.  THIS FASTER MODEL MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAPPEARS TO RESULT FROM A COMBINATION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF ENRIQUE AND AN ANALYZED MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE LATTER FEATURE MAY NOT EXIST IN THE REAL ATMOSPHERE\r\nAND THE FORMER MAY BE GETTING TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE TO HAVE\r\nMUCH EFFECT.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...SAVE FOR CLIPER. \r\n\r\nFOR THE FIRST TIME...THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING STRENGTHENING\r\nMORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCONVECTION IS THIN RIGHT NOW...I EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DIURNAL BURST.  WITH THE SLOWER\r\nFORECAST MOTION...THE WEAKENING TREND OVER COOLER WATERS MAY BE\r\nSOMEWHAT DELAYED. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 14.7N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.9N 112.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.6N 114.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 16.4N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-07-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2003\r\n \r\nENRIQUE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12/00Z WERE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nWERE T3.5...OR 55 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 55 KT. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE\r\nBECOME MORE CIRCULAR WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. ENRIQUE HAS ACTUALLY MADE A\r\nSHARP NORTHWESTWARD JOG DURING THE PAST 3-6 HOURS...BUT THIS MOTION\r\nHAS BEEN SMOOTHED OUT SINCE IT IS BELIEVED TO BE MAINLY DUE TO\r\nREORGANIZATION OF LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE RECENT BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST OF ENRIQUE IN\r\nALL THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS ALLEGED FEATURE DOES NOT APPEAR IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS ALSO SEEN MOVING WESTWARD AHEAD OF ENRIQUE. HAVING\r\nSAID THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF ALL THE\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLIPER. ENRIQUE IS\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND BECOME A\r\nVERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE...BE STEERED MORE\r\nWESTWARD BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.\r\n\r\nTHE BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREQUIRES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST BE ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nACCORDINGLY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ALSO APPEARS TO BE UNRESTRICTED IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS...WHICH ALSO FAVORS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO\r\nOCCUR. HOWEVER...WHILE ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING OVER SUB-25C SSTS BY\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ENRIQUE UP TO\r\n64...67...AND 65 KT IN 12...24...AND 36 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING THAN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAFTER 12 HOURS DUE TO THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 15.4N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.9N 113.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.6N 116.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.3N 118.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.9N 120.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-07-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 HOURS\r\nAGO...BUT ENRIQUE REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM ALL THREE\r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS\r\nUNRESTRICTED AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/14 AS ENRIQUE HAS CONTINUED ITS\r\nSHARP NORTHWESTWARD JOG. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...THIS RECENT NORTHWESTWARD JOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST\r\nMUCH LONGER AND IT MAY BE PRIMARILY THE RESULT OF RE-ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN\r\nFACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE MAKING MORE OF A WESTWARD TURN ALREADY.\r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INSIST ON TAKING THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN TURNING IT\r\nWESTWARD AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AS SPREAD AMONG THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE GENERAL\r\nEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS NOW WITHIN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN\r\nORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nTIME IS QUICKLY RUNNING OUT FOR ENRIQUE TO BECOME THE FIRST\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2003 SEASON IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BASIN. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARING 26C SSTS AND THE WATER GETS\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COLDER WEST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST DATA WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE THE PREVIOUS SHIPS\r\nOUTPUT...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...AND SHIFOR. IT IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT ENRIQUE COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE\r\nNEXT 6 TO PERHAPS 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES MUCH COOLER WATER...\r\nAFTER WHICH STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 16.5N 113.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 17.3N 115.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 18.1N 118.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 18.8N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N 133.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-07-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nENRIQUE MAINTAINS AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nTO -80C NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...A TRMM OVERPASS AND 0802Z\r\nSHOWED NO EYE AND A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WEST OF MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\nENRIQUE SHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE ARE HINTS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT WEAK WESTERLY FLOW MAY BE\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.\r\n\r\nENRIQUE IS NOW MOVING 305/13...CONTINUING THE NORTHWESTWARD JOG. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 18N124W.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A\r\nSHORT-TERM CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AS ENRIQUE WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER AND LOWER-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING BECOMES PREDOMINANT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED BY\r\nCOMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...BUT WHAT GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE SUPPORTS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nENRIQUE IS NOW NEAR THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...WHICH\r\nMEANS TIME FOR INTENSIFICATION HAS JUST ABOUT RUN OUT.  THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE THAT THE STORM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT\r\nFEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND SHOULD BE DOWN FROM\r\nHERE ON.  ENRIQUE WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REFLECT A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE COLDER WATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 17.4N 114.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N 116.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.2N 118.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.8N 121.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 123.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-07-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nCOLD WATER HAS TAKEN AN UNEXPECTEDLY SEVERE TOLL ON ENRIQUE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  WHILE SOME INTENSE BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL\r\nOCCURRING...THE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE\r\nHAS BECOME RAGGED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHILE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nSET AT 50 KT.\r\n\r\nENRIQUE IS NOW MOVING 305/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE\r\nCENTERED OVER ARIZONA...WITH A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n18N127W.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS AT LEAST A SHORT-TERM CONTINUATION\r\nOF THE CURRENT MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS\r\nENRIQUE WEAKENS FURTHER AND LOWER-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nENRIQUE WILL BE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST BASED ON THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN.  HOWERVER...ENRIQUE COULD DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 18.4N 116.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.3N 117.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 20.1N 120.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 20.5N 122.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-07-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2003\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE\r\nENRIQUE HAS MOVED OVER SUB-24C WATER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOW ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED\r\nTO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE\r\nMORE RECENT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/14.  SINCE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nALMOST NON-EXISTENT NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6\r\nHOURS...ENRIQUE IS BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AND EVEN WEST-SOUTHWARD AS IT BECOMES\r\nINFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nA STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nAGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE...\r\nENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER 22C SST WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS SO\r\nMORE RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS DOWNWARD TREND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nQUICKER THAN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT IT IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH ACTUALLY DISSIPATES THE\r\nCYCLONE BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 19.0N 117.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 19.7N 119.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N 122.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 124.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 19.7N 127.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-07-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY SEPARATE FROM THE\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY\r\nOUTFLOW CIRRUS ON THE WEST SIDE...THE INITIAL POSITION OF ENRIQUE\r\nIS CONFIRMED BY 13/0105Z QUIKSCAT AND 13/0337Z SSMI OVERPASSES. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON 40-45 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND\r\nSPEEDS NOTED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND THE\r\nCONTINUED DEGRADED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FOR ALL PRACTICAL PURPOSES...  \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NON-EXISTENT NEAR  \r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. ENRIQUE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO MOVE WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nBECOMES THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE...\r\nENRIQUE IS PRESENTLY OVER 23C SSTS AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER\r\nUNFAVORABLY COOL WATER FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFETIME AND...\r\nTHEREFORE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED THAT SCENARIO. ENRIQUE SHOULD\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 19.4N 119.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 19.7N 121.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 19.9N 124.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 19.8N 126.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 19.3N 129.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 138.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-07-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2003\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A LOW LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 150\r\nMILES SOUTHWEST OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION.  ENRIQUE IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS.  COLD SSTS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE THE DISSIPATION PROCESS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFOR A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS AND TOTAL DISSIPATION AFTER 3\r\nDAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT A WESTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD TRACK AS A\r\nSTRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE DOMINATES THE STEERING.   THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 19.9N 120.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 20.2N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 20.3N 125.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N 130.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 134.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-07-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 30N\r\n140W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL ON VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\n...BUT THE NEAREST SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE THAN 150\r\nMILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  COLD SSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THE\r\nDISSIPATION PROCESS AND THE REMNANT LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST\r\nMORE THAN 2 OR 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 20.1N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.6N 129.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.3N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-07-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2003\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nMANZANILLO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOMEWHAT DISPLACED TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.  BASED ON THIS...AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS THAT WERE A CONSENSUS 2.0 FROM THE THREE\r\nAGENCIES...THE DISTURBANCE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME AND THERE IS\r\nSUBSTANTIAL EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSHEAR WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT SEE WHY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL READS THE SHEAR AS LESSENING TO ABOUT 5 KT IN 48 HOURS.  WITH\r\nTHIS...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nIN 72 HOURS OVER 26C WATERS.  THIS SEEMS EXCESSIVE TO\r\nME...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL ORGANIZATION AND LACK OF\r\nDEVELOPMENT SHOWN EXPLICITLY IN THE GLOBAL MODELS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13...BUT VERY UNCERTAIN.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. \r\nIN TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHIS RIDGE AND SO THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW SOME AT THAT TIME.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED LARGELY ON THE GFS AND BAMM GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 14.6N 107.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.2N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 115.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 123.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 128.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-07-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OR SO.  THIS IS THE\r\nRESULT OF STEERING BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.   AT THE BEGINNING OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW THAT MUCH RIDGING TO\r\nTHE NORTH...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB...SAB AND\r\nKGWC BASED ON A SMALL COLD CDO FEATURE.  HOWEVER I AM RELUCTANT TO\r\nUPGRADE TO A STORM ON NIGHTTIME IMAGERY.  RECENT SSMI...TRMM AND\r\nAMSU PASSES ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE AND YESTERDAYS LAST VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER A LITTLE EAST OF THE CONVECTION.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT DO MUCH WITH THE INTENSITY EXCEPT FOR THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL WHICH BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 60 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL EXCEPT BRINGING THE WIND\r\nSPEED TO ONLY 55 KNOTS.  INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 14.7N 109.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 112.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 15.4N 115.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 15.7N 118.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 122.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N 134.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-07-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INTENSIFIED\r\nCONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nFELICIA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 45 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE WARM ALONG THE TRACK OF FELICIA THROUGH ALMOST 72\r\nHOURS. THEREFORE...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED AND FELICIA MAY\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOL WATERS.\r\n\r\nFELICIA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS. THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWHICH IS EXPANDING WESTWARD. FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL\r\nTRACK AND SAME FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH IN FACT ARE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 14.8N 111.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 129.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 142.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-07-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED...A SSMI PASSAGE OVER\r\nFELICIA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION AND NOT EMBEDDED AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS MEANS\r\nTHAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS TO BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH\r\nAND THE WINDS HAVE TO BE DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS. THE CURRENT\r\nLOCATION AND STRUCTURE ALSO SUGGEST CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AND FELICIA MAY NOT REACHED HURRICANE STATUS AS PREVIOUSLY\r\nANTICIPATED. FELICIA IS NOW HEADING FOR AN AREA OF DRYER AND STABLE\r\nAIR. BOTH GFS AND THE NOGAPS WEAKEN FELICIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. FELICIA IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS UNTIL WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 48\r\nTO 72 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n  \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATED OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16. THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS\r\nEXPANDING WESTWARD. FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL TRACK \r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nWHICH IN FACT ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 15.5N 112.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-07-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2003\r\n\r\nFELICIA FEATURES A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS EVENING...\r\nWITH LIMITED THOUGH CURRENTLY INCREASING CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE STORM IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE WEST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15.  FELICIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL\r\nINITIALIZATIONS...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY ALL LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS.  THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE AN INVERTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nWEST OF FELICIA...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT\r\nIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A\r\nFAIRLY QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THIS IS\r\nAGREED UPON BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 15\r\nKT OF SHEAR OVER FELICIA...SO THE CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION\r\nIS A LITTLE PUZZLING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO\r\nSTAY RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR 36-48 HR...SO THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN\r\nIF IT SOLVES WHATEVER PROBLEMS IT HAS RIGHT NOW.  BASED ON THE\r\nPREMISE THAT THIS WILL HAPPEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL\r\nFOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AT 24-36 HR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 15.4N 114.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.7N 116.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.1N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.6N 122.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.2N 125.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 20.0N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-07-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15.  THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS WITH A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS ALSO A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...BUT NONE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE APPEARS TO REFLECT THIS FEATURE IN THEIR TRACK FORECASTS\r\nAND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nA CDO FEATURE PERSISTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS 40 KNOTS...INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES.  MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSUGGESTS THE WIND SPEED MAY BE LOWER THAN 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nWEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 15.6N 115.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.1N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.6N 121.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 124.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 17.6N 127.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.0N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 20.1N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-07-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nVERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES. A 1259Z TRMM PASS SHOWS THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTH AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. A\r\nSLIGHT STRAIGHTENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS\r\nBEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\nAND THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 15.7N 117.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 119.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 19.5N 134.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N 138.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-07-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF LIMITED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. FELICIA IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR AND\r\nALTHOUGH IT MAY STILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION...\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n \r\nFELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\nSO FELICIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK OR WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 15.6N 118.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.8N 120.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 129.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 135.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-07-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2003\r\n \r\nFELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25\r\nTO 35 KT.  GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSLATION SPEED...16 KT...I AM\r\nINCLINED TO GO WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND\r\nTHAT WILL KEEP FELICIA A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nLOW...BUT THE SURROUNDING AIR IS RATHER DRY.  SSTS ARE\r\nMARGINAL...BETWEEN 26 AND 27C.  THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...\r\nHOWEVER...FELICIA SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES AND COOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nDRY ENVIRONMENT DOMINATES THE CONVECTION THEN FELICIA WOULD\r\nDISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE BUT IT APPEARS AS IF THERE IS\r\nINSUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR FELICIA TO RESPOND TO IT.  ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS\r\nTHIS WEAKNESS.  HOW MUCH CURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT\r\nDEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 15.5N 120.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 15.6N 122.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 16.2N 125.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 16.8N 128.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 24.5N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-07-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nFELICIA CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIMITED CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE CENTER...BUT A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z THAT SHOWS ONLY A FEW\r\nRAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA\r\nHAS WEAKENED.  THERE ARE NO SATELLITE ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS EITHER.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE ARE DIVERGENT AND DO NOT APPEAR ALL THAT UNFAVORABLE...BUT\r\nTHE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER DRY. SSTS ARE MARGINAL...\r\nBETWEEN 26 AND 27C. THESE FACTORS ARGUE FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  EAST PACIFIC STORMS THAT\r\nWEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION RARELY REDEVELOP...BUT THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER\r\nFELICIA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AFTER 36 HOURS IT SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND THEN DISSIPATE. \r\n \r\nSSMI AND QUIKSCAT PASSES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS SLIPPED SOUTHWARD\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/14. IN SPITE OF THIS...ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE GRADUALLY CURVES THE TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. HOW MUCH\r\nCURVATURE ACTUALLY DEVELOPS IS SOMEWHAT DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH\r\nCONVECTION THE CYCLONE CAN GENERATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN\r\nFAVORS THE UKMET AND BAMS MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND AGAIN IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 15.2N 121.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 15.2N 123.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.7N 126.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 24.5N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING HOWEVER. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION BUT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE ELONGATED\r\nNORTH-SOUTH. FELICIA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GENERATE\r\nINTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\nHOWEVER...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER MORE STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION...WITH\r\nSTEERING BEING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OR\r\nCUTOFF CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA...WHICH COULD CAUSE A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE MODELS MAY BE OVERSTATING THE PRESENCE OF THIS\r\nFEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 15.3N 122.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N 131.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 19.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 24.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO NOTE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT 11 KT.  THIS NECESSITATES AN\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ALONG MORE OR LESS THE SAME HEADING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE.  THIS IS PRIMARILY BECAUSE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INITIALIZING TOO MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF FELICIA...AND LEADING TO A NORTHWARD BIAS TO\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO BE JUST\r\nNORTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  FELICIA WILL\r\nPROBABLY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 15.3N 123.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 125.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.9N 127.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.4N 130.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 132.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2003\r\n \r\nFELICIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nAFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  FELICIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLARGE-SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nPORTION OF THIS RIDGE WEST OF 130W SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC. \r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD.  MOST\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A\r\nSPREAD IN THE SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT\r\nACCELERATE FELICIA TO A COMPROMISE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER BAM\r\nMODELS AND THE SLOWER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  ONE POSSIBILITY TO BE\r\nWATCHED IS THAT FELICIA...OR ITS REMAINS...COULD TURN MORE WESTWARD\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS DEVELOPING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nFELICIA.  THIS SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...\r\nALTHOUGH IT COULD LEAD TO SOME CONVECTIVE BURSTS WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS ALIVE.  THE SHEAR AND THE FORECAST MOTION OVER COOLER WATER\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO THE DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE IS 36-48 HR...WITH THE\r\nREMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY 120 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 15.6N 124.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.9N 125.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.3N 128.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N 131.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 133.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-07-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2003\r\n \r\nFELICIA REMAINS UNDER MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA\r\nAND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB. HOWEVER...SINCE THE RECENT\r\nCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS NOT PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN JUST A FEW\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/11. THIS MOTION KEEPS\r\nFELICIA ON TRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FELICIA IS MOVING ALONG A SHARP\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE DRY AIR...IN COMBINATION WITH THE\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...\r\nSHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FORM OCCURRING. IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT FELICIA COULD BRIEFLY REACH MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DURING ONE OF THE\r\nBRIEF PERIODS OF CONVECTIVE BURSTING. BY 36 HOURS...FELICIA WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A RAPID WEAKENING\r\nTREND AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 15.8N 125.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.1N 127.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 16.6N 129.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.2N 132.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N 135.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-07-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING UNDER\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION\r\nIN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 16.0N 126.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 128.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N 131.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N 134.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 147.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-07-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THERE ARE SOME\r\nWEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GFS...BUT THESE DO NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE MUCH EFFECT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAKENING UNDER\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION\r\nIN A TWO OR THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 16.0N 128.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.3N 130.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.9N 133.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 135.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 139.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-07-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2003\r\n\r\nFELICIA HAS CHANGES LITTLE IN STRUCTURE THIS EVENING...WITH\r\nOCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE\r\nAND COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF\r\nFLEICIA...WHILE VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  A BETTER-DEVELOPED SYSTEM WOULD\r\nPROBABLY RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN BY TURNING MORE NORTHWARD. \r\nFELICIA IS NOT WELL-DEVELOPED ENOUGH TO MAKE THIS TURN...SO IT\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nA DRIFTING BUOY NORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE OF 78F...A SIGN THAT FELICIA IS APPROACHING THE COLDER\r\nWATER.  A COMBINATION OF WESTERLY SHEAR ANDS COLDER WATER SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 36-48\r\nHR...OR PERHAPS LESS.  NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HANG TO TO THE\r\nREMNANTS OF FELICIA FOR EVEN 72 HR...SO IT MAY DISSIPATE COMPLETELY\r\nOR WEAKEN TO AN EASTERLY WAVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 16.2N 129.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 132.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.9N 134.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.6N 137.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-07-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NMI OF WHAT IS NOW A\r\nFULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. IN FACT...A 22/0307Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY NOT EVEN BE A CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...FELICIA IS BEING HELD ONTO FOR AT\r\nLEAST ONE MORE ADVISORY BASED ON SOME RECENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM SAB...25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...AND\r\n20-25 KT QUIKSCAT WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. AS FELICIA WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED GRADUALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFELICIA IS QUICKLY SUCCUMBING TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND COOL SSTS. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND MID-LEVEL\r\nDRY AIR ARE ALSO WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION AND ARE ADDING TO\r\nTHE WEAKENING PROCESS. THEREFORE...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT \r\nSOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE PROVIDED MAINLY\r\nFOR CONTINUITY SINCE THE REMNANTS OF FELICIA ARE EXPECTED TO CROSS\r\nWEST OF 140W LONGITUDE BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS THE RESPONSIBILITY OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. HOWEVER...REGENERATION INTO A\r\nSIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY WEST OF 140W GIVEN THAT\r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN\r\n50 KT OVER AND EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 16.6N 130.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 132.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N 135.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 138.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.6N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.3N 146.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-07-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003\r\n \r\nFELICIA CONSISTS OF A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH A FEW PATCHES OF\r\nINTERMITTENT CONVECTION SMINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED\r\nAND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS OR SO...AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\n11 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 17.0N 132.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-07-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH FELICIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DUE TO SHEAR AND COLD WATERS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE MOVING ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 12 KNOTS\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION 12 HOURS. A REMANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE PRODUCING\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 17.5N 133.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 137.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 139.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 141.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-07-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2003\r\n \r\nFELICIA IS LIKELY GOING INTO TERMINAL DECLINE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NOW-DISSIPATING CONVECTION...AND ANIMATION\r\nOF VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS JUST BARELY CLOSED. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND EARLIER SSM/I DATA.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER WATER IN AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...SO IT SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING UNTIL BECOMING A NON-\r\nCONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280-285 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AND THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 17.6N 135.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 137.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 141.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED NOW...WHILE THE\r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF ABOUT\r\n200 NMI TO THE EAST. THERE MAY BE A FEW BRIEF PUFFS OF MODERATE\r\nCONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WILL BE\r\nCLOSE TO THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...BUT NO SUSTAINED CONVECTION IS\r\nEXPECTED NEAR THE CENTER. WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASING TO\r\nAT LEAST 50 KT BY 24 TO 48 HOURS SHOULD ALSO PREVENT ANY\r\nREGENERATION FROM OCCURRING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15. NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCUALTION HAS\r\nDECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...THE FELICIA\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nTPC/TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH UNDER WMO HEADER FZPN03\r\nKNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP2.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 17.7N 136.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 17.9N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.1N 142.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 18.3N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N 148.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2003\r\n\r\nLATEST QUIKSCAT INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED\r\nABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS A SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH\r\nARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR BUT THE SYSTEM\r\nLACKS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED...ONLY A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION COULD BRING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO STORM STATUS BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT\r\n8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.    \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH\r\nWEAKEN THE SYSTEM RATHER RAPIDLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 16.5N 116.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N 124.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS NEAR\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nIMPROVE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND SOME BANDING FEATURES.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST\r\nPORTION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30\r\nKNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A\r\nBUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE\r\nON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS HEAVILY BIASED TO\r\nTHE GFS AND THE GFDL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 17.0N 117.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 123.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE...INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND A SMALL CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST...OR CDO...FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nT2.5 PLUS...OR 40 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AND\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/06. THE MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION\r\nAND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY A TEMPORARY CONDITION...AND IS\r\nPROBABLY DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-ORGANIZING WITHIN THE\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE OF LITTLE USE AS\r\nFAR AS SPECIFIC TRACK FORECAST POSITIONS ARE CONCERNED SINCE THE\r\nMODELS WERE POORLY INITIALIZED AT 07/18Z...AND THEY KILL THE\r\nCYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AT THE EXPENSE OF SPINNING\r\nUP A SYSTEM TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE BASIC SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF\r\nHAVING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH INDICATES THAT\r\nGUILLERMO SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT\r\nSLOWER AND WELL SOUTH OF BOTH OF THOSE MODEL TRACKS AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON THE\r\nSTRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY...BUT IT IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 58 KT IN ABOUT 48-60\r\nHOURS...AFTER WHICH IT REMAINS STEADY THROUGH 120 HOURS. IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT GUILLERMO COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND\r\nEVEN REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36-48 HOURS GIVEN THAT THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND THE CENTER IS\r\nFORECAST BE VERY CLOSE TO THE 27C SST ISOTHERM. THE 34-KT WIND\r\nRADII WERE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 16.7N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.9N 118.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.2N 120.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 17.4N 122.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 17.5N 124.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 127.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 17.5N 131.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...SO MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD\r\nAT 40 KT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME CONSOLIDATED AND IS FAIRLY\r\nWELL ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES.  VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR APPEARS TO BE LIGHT OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN SUGGESTS SLIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR.  SINCE THE STORM IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD...WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD\r\nREMAIN JUST WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  WITH THE\r\nESTIMATED INTENSITY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING THAN BEFORE...DUE TO A REDUCED\r\nPERSISTENCE COMPONENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A WESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 270/6.\r\nTHE GFS...U.K. MET OFFICE...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL SHOW DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nGUILLERMO.  IN THE GFS RUN...THE EASTERN SYSTEM QUICKLY BECOMES\r\nDOMINANT SO THAT THE MODEL VORTEX TRACKER HAS DIFFICULTY FOLLOWING\r\nTHE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM.  THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET OFFICE RUNS\r\nKEEP GUILLERMO DISTINCT AND STRONGER.  IN ANY EVENT...THE STEERING\r\nSCENARIO APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...ASSUMING THAT\r\nGUILLERMO WILL HAVE MINIMAL INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN\r\nDISTURBANCE.   A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF\r\nGUILLERMO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST...WITH A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS\r\nIS A LITTLE SOUTH OF...AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER AND TO SOUTH OF THE\r\nCURRENT NHC FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 16.6N 118.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 16.7N 119.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.8N 121.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.9N 123.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 136.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO HAD DEVELOPED A COLD AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE OVERCAST\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C NEAR THE CENTER.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR\r\nELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  GUILLERMO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST\r\nAND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND\r\nSOMEWHAT FASTER AFTER 48 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THIS\r\nFORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT IS STILL SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE UKMET...BAM MODELS...AND LBAR.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT GUILLERMO SHOULD REMAIN IN A\r\nLIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THUS...THE MAIN PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEM IS\r\nWHAT WILL THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UNDER THE STORM BE.   THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKES GUILLERMO OVER 26C SSTS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO\r\nTHE ISOTHERMS.  IF IT MOVES NORTH OF THE TRACK...IT WILL MOVE INTO\r\nCOOLER WATER AND WEAKEN.  IF IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE TRACK...IT COULD\r\nFIND WARMER WATER.  THE LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN SLOWER WEAKENING ON\r\nTHE PREMISE THAT GUILLERMO WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COLD WATER\r\nFOR IT TO HAVE AN EFFECT.  THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 16.6N 118.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.6N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.7N 122.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.8N 124.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 16.9N 126.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 134.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 138.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO HAS SHOWN MIXED SIGNALS DURING THE DAY.  ON ONE SIDE...\r\nSSM/I DATA RECEIVED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS AND A POSSIBLE EYE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nPOSSIBLY DUE TO SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW NEAR 17N125W.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THESE AND\r\nTHE POSSIBLE EYE...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS ABOUT A HALF DEGREE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER\r\nTHIS COMES FROM MOTION OR REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...SO THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 250/7.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GUILLERMO IS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE STILL\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE\r\nSPEED REMAINS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS SHIFTED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWARD BASED ON\r\nCURRENT TRENDS.  THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nTHE ABOVE BEING SAID...THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPOSSIBILITY.  AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED NEAR 13N107W IS\r\nWEAKER...BUT LARGER THAN GUILLERMO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT\r\nTHE TWO SYSTEMS COULD INTERACT...AND SUCH AN INTERACTION COULD\r\nCAUSE A DIFFERENT TRACK FOR GUILLERMO THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THIS YET.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENTLY SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nCOULD PERSIST FOR 24 HR OR MORE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF\r\nGUILLERMO MOVES WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL DOES NOT FORECAST ENOUGH SHEAR TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE GFDL STRENGTHENS IT AS WELL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL BE BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE SHEAR WILL ONLY SLOW\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT AND FORECASTS THE STORM TO REACH 60 KT IN 36-48 HR.  \r\nWHILE THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPS THE STORM IN WARMER WATER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...AFTER 72 HR GUILLERMO SHOULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH\r\nTO COOLER WATER TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 16.0N 119.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.9N 120.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.9N 122.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 15.9N 125.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 127.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 16.0N 131.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 139.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-08-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2003\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO NEW CHANGES TO REPORT TONIGHT. THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nREMAINS RAGGED WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL\r\n50 KNOTS. BECAUSE THERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND THE\r\nOCEAN IS WARM SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE\r\nCYCLONE APPROACHES COOL WATER IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  HOWEVER...IT IS\r\nINTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nSOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THIS MAY BE CAUSED BY A DEVELOPING AND\r\nMUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS APPROACHING GUILLERMO. \r\n\r\nGUILLERMO IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THERE IS A STRONG AND\r\nEXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE WOULD KEEP GUILLERMO\r\nON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE NOGAPS WHICH\r\nMAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AND MOVES IT SOUTH OF DUE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 16.1N 120.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 16.0N 125.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 136.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 139.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-08-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n\r\nGUILLERMO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.  IR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS IRREGULARLY-SHAPED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT\r\nBANDING IS ILL-DEFINED.  HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nSUPPORTS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT.  SINCE THE SHEAR OVER THE STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE FUTURE\r\nINTENSITY OF GUILLERMO WILL MAINLY BE DEPENDENT ON SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND/OR THE PRESENCE OF MORE STABLE AIR.  THIS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ASSUMES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE...SO THAT A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ESTABLISHED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF GUILLERMO.  THIS SUPPORTS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER DUE TO THE\r\nFASTER INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 16.0N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.0N 125.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 127.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 16.0N 129.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 139.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 144.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WAXED AND\r\nWANED OVERNIGHT WITH A BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION HAVING OCCURRED\r\nBETWEEN 09-12Z. SINCE THEN...TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL AND\r\nEXPANDING SLIGHTLY IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION BASED ON\r\nAN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS WHICH SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nDISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WAS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO EXPECTED\r\nBINARY INTERACTION WITH LARGE AND STRENGTHENING TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT-E LOCATED ABOUT 575 NMI TO THE EAST. TD-8E IS MOVING ABOUT\r\n3-4 KT FASTER THAN GUILLERMO...SO SOME BINARY INTERACTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY..IF NOT ALREADY. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE GUILLERMO WESTWARD WHILE TD-8E IS\r\nEXPECTED TO IMPART A WEAK SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE RESULT\r\nIS THAT GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS.\r\nWHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF TD-8E APPEARS TO BE UNDERCUTTING \r\nTHE OUTFLOW FROM GUILLERMO IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS MAY BE\r\nPARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT WARMING OF THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE 200 MB SHEAR TO REMAIN\r\nLESS THAN 10 KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND EVEN BRINGS GUILLERMO TO\r\n65 KT IN 72 HOURS...AND REMAIN AT THAT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE TD-8E IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO\r\nGUILLERMO...THE SHEAR IN THE 300 MB LAYER THAT IS PRESENTLY\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE 200 MB OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE SOME MORE. FOR\r\nTHIS REASON...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED\r\n...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE LOSING LATITUDE AND MOVING OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 15.7N 122.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 15.6N 124.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 15.4N 127.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 15.2N 129.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N 132.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 140.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 15.0N 145.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS NOW SEVERELY RESTRICTED IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT\r\nBASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM TAFB. OTHER\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD\r\nHIGHER BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND INNER-CORE\r\nWIND FIELD NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 265/12. THE INITIAL POSITION IS\r\nBASED ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN THROUGH THE\r\nTHINNING CIRRUS CANOPY. THIS POSITION WOULD KEEP GUILLERMO ON TRACK\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS\r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION EIGHT-E LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\n...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS MODEL...AND IS A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF TD-8E HAS DEFINITELY TAKEN ITS TOLL\r\nON GUILLERMO. HOWEVER...TD-8E HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\n...SO THE OUTFLOW FROM THAT SYSTEM MAY ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO AND ALLOW FOR MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP.\r\nTHIS IS THE REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ONLY LOWERED\r\nSLIGHTLY. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST GUILLERMO TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE IN 84-96 HOURS...BUT THIS IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY UNLESS\r\nTHE EASTERLY OUTFLOW SHEAR FROM TD-8E LETS UP COMPLETELY. GUILLERMO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE 28C SST ISOTHERM...SO THAT SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR SOME PERIODIC STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP\r\nAND KEEP THE CYCLONE ONGOING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 15.4N 124.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 15.3N 125.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.0N 130.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 141.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N 146.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER LOSING MUCH OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLIER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED NEAR THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GUILLERMO. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE THREE ESTIMATES. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO MAY BE TAKING A SMALL JOG \r\nMORE TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS IS ASSUMED TO BE A SHORT-TERM\r\nFLUCTUATION AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED AT 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nIN TERMS OF INTENSITY...GUILLERMO IS STUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD\r\nPLACE AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD. A\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES WEST OF GUILLERMO WHICH IS\r\nRESTRICTING OUTFLOW AND PRODUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. TO THE EAST...DEVELOPING T.S. HILDA WITH ITS UPPER\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. FOR NOW...THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST OF GUILLERMO APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR FOR INTENSITY\r\nCHANGE. IT IS PRODUCING A SEMI-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED\r\nBY THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH. \r\nHOWEVER...WITH TIME THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING\r\nSHEAR OVER GUILLERMO AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  THIS IS IN LINE\r\nWITH THE INCREASING SHEAR FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. GUILLERMO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM SST...SO THAT SHOULD NOT\r\nBE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH INFLUENCE\r\nTHE DEVELOPING T.S. HILDA WILL HAVE ON GUILLERMO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 15.4N 125.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.5N 126.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 15.6N 129.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.6N 131.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 15.6N 134.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 15.3N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 15.0N 146.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n...CORRECTED 72 HR INTENSITY TO 40 KT...\r\nGUILLERMO LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED AT THE MOMENT.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN APPEARING IN BURSTS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPERIENCING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nFROM TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO\r\nTHE EAST.  GIVEN GUILLERMO'S CURRENT STATE AND THE MARGINAL\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  SOME\r\nMINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GUILLERMO PASSES OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SOME OF THE HIGH-LEVEL OVERCAST IS BEING DISPLACED MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY THE SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE CONTINUING WESTWARD...ABOUT 270/12.  AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nDISCUSSION FOR TROPICAL STORM HILDA...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF\r\nSOME SORT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE 2 TROPICAL CYCLONES.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION...IF\r\nIT OCCURS...WOULD HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF HILDA RATHER\r\nTHAN ON GUILLERMO.  ASSUMING THAT THE STEERING WILL BE DOMINATED BY\r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...\r\nLIKE THE PREVIOUS ONES....MAINTAINS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 15.5N 126.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.6N 128.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 15.8N 133.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 15.9N 135.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 144.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 149.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...WITH A 2.0/3.0 FROM\r\nTAFB AND A 1.5/2.0 FROM SAB. THE LAST TWO QUIKSCAT PASSES MISSED\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BUT MAY\r\nSTILL BE A BIT HIGH. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL VORTEX IN THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CAN BE SEEN MOVING AWAY\r\nFROM GUILLERMO TO THE NORTHWEST.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSTANT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS...ABOUT\r\n265/12.  GUILLERMO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT\r\nIS PROVIDING A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...AND THIS SHOULD\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  COMPLICATING THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS TROPICAL STORM HILDA TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO.  THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nCONSISTENCY AMONG THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ABOUT HOW THESE\r\nTHREE SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT.  THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND BRINGS\r\nITS REMNANTS AROUND THE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nAND NOGAPS KEEP GUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE.  WHILE GUILLERMO\r\nIS UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR NOW...THERE IS DEVELOPING OUTFLOW FROM\r\nTHE WESTERN DISTURBANCE THAT MAY REVERSE THE UPPER FLOW WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS.  IF THAT OCCURS...THEN GUILLERMO IS LIKELY TO\r\nBECOME A WEAK SYSTEM AND MOVE WITH THE SHALLOW FLOW AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE GFS AND THE SHALLOW BAM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST EARLY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT IT IS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nWILL PERMIT MUCH DEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 15.3N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.1N 129.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.2N 131.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.2N 134.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 137.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 143.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 15.0N 148.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 153.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO HAS BEEN GENERATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION BUT WITH NO\r\nBANDING OR OTHER SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES\r\nFROM THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ARE BEGINNING TO IMPINGE\r\nON THE CYCLONE. THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AT BEST ONLY\r\nA SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE IN THE 30-35 KT\r\nRANGE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE BUT IS BELIEVED TO STILL BE ON THE EAST\r\nOR SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n270/11. GUILLERMO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS\r\nPROVIDING A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...AND THIS SHOULD\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. COMPLICATING THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nGUILLERMO. THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND BRINGS ITS REMNANTS AROUND\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP\r\nGUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND\r\nSHALLOW BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nWITH INCREASING WESTERLIES AND STABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHING IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS HARD TO ENVISION IN\r\nTHE FACE OF THE EXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 15.4N 128.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 15.5N 132.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.5N 134.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 137.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 143.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 148.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 153.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO HAS LOOKED LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS\r\nBEEN VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF ANY CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...UNTIL A\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER. OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE WEST...BUT IS FAIR AND IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA AVERAGE OUT TO 30\r\nKT...AND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\nTHEREFORE...GUILLERMO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPCIAL DEPRESSION. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE RECENT INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION AND THE RESULTANT DECOUPLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THAT MAKES THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES\r\nTHE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW...AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM. GUILLERMO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nSHOULD ENSURE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THERE MAY BE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED DEPENDING ON\r\nHOW MUCH CONVECTION PERIODICALLY BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE\r\nGENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE STEADY WESTWARD BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT. THE\r\nRECENT WEAKENING OF BOTH GUILLERMO AND TROPICAL STORM HILDA SHOULD\r\nREDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS.\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO HAS BEEN INGESTING COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS INTO THE WESTERN \r\nSEMICIRCLE AND THIS...ALONG WITH WESTERLY SHEAR INDUCED BY A\r\nDEVELOPING DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST...HAS CONTRIBUTED\r\nTO THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION. WHILE THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nSTRENGTHENS GUILLERMO BACK TO A 55-KT TROPICAL STORM BY 120\r\nHOURS...SUCH STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY SINCE THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH\r\nOF A CIRCULATION REMAINING AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE\r\nINTENSITY TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN\r\nAFTER THAT. OF COURSE...ONLY MINOR BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD EASILY BRING GUILLERMO BACK TO MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ANY TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 15.5N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 15.6N 133.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 15.6N 136.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.6N 139.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 150.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 155.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 03Z SHOWED WINDS STILL VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...BUT THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SINCE THEN.\r\nGUILLERMO IS NOW GENERATING JUST A FEW INTERMITTENT PUFFS OF\r\nCONVECTION. THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBE MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\nGUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS ARE GIVEN OUT TO 120 HOURS...I DO NOT REALLY\r\nEXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO PERSIST THAT LONG.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nNORTHWARD AND SLOWER TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 15.8N 131.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.9N 133.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 16.0N 135.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 16.2N 137.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 152.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR AND TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 25 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF GUILLERMO AS\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST\r\n24-48 HR.  GUILLERMO IS TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE PICKED UP BY THE\r\nTROUGH...SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION\r\nAT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD IN BOTH\r\nDIRECTION...BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IS\r\nDOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUKMET.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS GUILLERMO OVER ROUGHLY 26C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE GFS AND CANADIAN FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE UKMET AND THE\r\nNOGAPS HAVE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...\r\nCALLING FOR WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR BUT ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST THE\r\nREMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO LAST FOR 5 DAYS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 16.0N 132.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 16.1N 134.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 16.3N 136.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 138.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 141.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RTD\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n\r\nADVISORY RE-TRANSMITTED DUE TO NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BURST SEEN DURING THE MORNING HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING\r\nGUILLERMO AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS IN A RAGGED BAND WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND AFWA...ALONG WITH A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/13.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nGUILLERMO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24-48 HR.  GUILLERMO IS TOO FAR SOUTHWEST TO BE\r\nPICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...SO THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION...BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST...AND\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS GUILLERMO OVER 25C-26C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT MAINLY ON THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE UKMET...THE\r\nNOGAPS...AND NOW THE GFS...HAVE A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SOMEWHAT COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...CALLING FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO\r\nSHEAR BUT ALLOWING FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM TO LAST FOR 5\r\nDAYS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY\r\nMOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING GUILLERMO OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND LET IT DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENT FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 16.2N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.4N 135.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 16.7N 138.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 16.9N 140.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.2N 142.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 147.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N 155.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n \r\nA FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER BETWEEN 21-23Z\r\n...BUT SINCE THEN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE PRESENCE\r\nOF TWO INTERLOCKING BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION LOCATED NORTH AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE ALSO 30 KT...OR T2.0...FROM TAFB AND AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/13.  GUILLERMO IS EMBEDDED\r\nIN MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS...AND BRINGS\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WITHIN ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTH OF\r\nTHE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK KEEPS GUILLERMO OVER 26C SSTS A LITTLE\r\nLONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE WARM SOUTHERLY\r\nINFLOW APPEARS TO BE CUT OFF NOW BY THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE\r\nZONE THAT HAS REDEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 12-13N\r\nLATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL...WHICH BRINGS GUILLERMO BACK UP TO 51 KT IN 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 16.4N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 137.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.7N 139.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 16.9N 141.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.1N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 152.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N 156.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SMALL AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION BOTH\r\nNORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  GIVEN THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE\r\nNUMBERS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THAT MUCH WIND.  THE MOST RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT VISIBLE IN EITHER IR OR SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY...BUT\r\nA MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. GUILLERMO IS EMBEDDED IN A\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS SUITE OF MODELS.\r\nCOMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST ARE ACTIVE DISTURBANCES IN THE ITCZ\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO. THE GFS AND NOGAPS TAKE\r\nGUILLERMO...OR ITS REMNANTS...RAPIDLY AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nITCZ DISTURBANCES...WHILE THE UKMET MAINTAINS SEPARATION BETWEEN\r\nTHE SYSTEMS AND HAS A MUCH SLOWER MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THE FORMER SOLUTION...\r\nALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMETHING OF A DILEMMA. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCURRENTLY UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER\r\n24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT HOWEVER...GUILLERMO COULD FIND ITSELF\r\nUNDER AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND OVER WATERS STILL NEAR 26C.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS GUILLERMO AND MAKES IT A\r\nHURRICANE IN 108 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT FAVORABLE...AS THE WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE CUT OFF NOW BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ITCZ DISTURBANCES. \r\nFOR THE TIME BEING...I AM MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS...PRESUMING THAT THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL AND\r\nGUILLERMO WILL SOON LOSE TO ITS COMPETITORS TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 16.3N 137.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 16.4N 139.1W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 16.5N 141.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 144.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 150.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 154.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 16.0N 157.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF GUILLERMO.  BECAUSE OF THIS...THE INITIAL \r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE NUMBERS \r\nARE SLIGHTLY LOWER.  \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN IR IMAGERY AND THERE HAS NOT\r\nBEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT\r\nGUILLERMO BASICALLY REMAINS ON TRACK...PERHAPS IT IS MOVING\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15.  GUILLERMO\r\nIS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT A LITTLE FASTER DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  GUILLERMO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER AROUND 26C. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCURRENTLY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR BUT...THE GFS INDICATES THE\r\nSHEAR WILL RELAX.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nRESTRENGTHEN. BUT...AS MENTION IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE SOUTHERLY INFLOW INTO GUILLERMO IS BEING CUT OFF BY\r\nSEVERAL ITCZ DISTURBANCES.  THEREFORE...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED...PRESUMING THAT GUILLERMO WILL LOSE \r\nTO ITS COMPETITORS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 16.4N 139.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 141.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.7N 144.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N 149.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.7N 152.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 155.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N 159.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED THAT GUILLERMO IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS WITH OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION.  THEREFORE...THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS IN LINE \r\nWITH THE LASTEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  \r\n\r\nGUILLERMO CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/15. \r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW \r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING GUILLERMO GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND MERGE WITH THE ITCZ\r\nDISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUILLERMO.\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO IS EXPECT TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nINCLUDES FORECAST POINTS FOR THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IF GUILLERMO MERGES WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED ITCZ\r\nDISTURBANCE...DISSIPATION WOULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER HAS CROSSED 140W LONGITUDE...THIS IS THE LAST\r\nFORECAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nGUILLERMO.  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 16.3N 140.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.3N 143.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.3N 145.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 148.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.1N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 16.0N 157.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 160.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. A CIRCULARLY-SHAPED AREA\r\nOF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION...WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS CLOUD PATTERN WARRANTS UPGRADING THE\r\nSYSTEM TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nCONSERVATIVELY AT 25 KT. THERE IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...BUT EASTERLY UPPER FLOW IS INHIBITING OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTRAVERSE WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE.  A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nIS FORECAST...CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND THE PRESENCE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN...THE GFDL MODEL TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 13.0N 111.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 13.0N 113.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 13.5N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 14.0N 117.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A LARGE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION\r\nHAVING DEVELOPED NORTHWEST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nPOSITION. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...\r\nESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 30 KT...OR T2.0...INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. THE FORWARD MOTION AND\r\nINITIAL POSITION ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. CONVENTIONAL\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS ARE SCATTERED ABOUT THE COMPASS...\r\nWHICH LENDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. WHILE THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BASED ON A WEAK SIGNATURE IN AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS...\r\nTHE POSITION WAS NOT TAKEN AS FAR NORTH OR WEST AS SOME OF THE\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST. TD-8E IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND...THEREFORE...\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY WESTWARD. THE FORWARD SPEED WAS INCREASED\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION WILL ADD SOME BETA-EFFECT MOTION TO THE MEAN\r\nSTEERING FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL...GFS\r\n...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE THREE BETA-ADVECTION MODELS. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 09/06Z NOGAPS AND 09/00Z UKMET MODEL RUNS\r\nDISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS OR LESS...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS NOT LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS GOOD STRUCTURE AND AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL REDEVELOP FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE\r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTION AND BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 67 KT\r\nBY 72 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL KILLS THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN\r\nTHE RATHER IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE AND OUTFLOW PATTERN...MY FEELING\r\nIS THAT EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL COULD BE TOO LOW AND TOO SLOW WITH THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND THEN REMAIN STEADY FOR ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS WITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR\r\nCOOLER WATER. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE INCREASED EVEN MORE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 13.8N 113.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.2N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 14.8N 118.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 15.6N 124.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 134.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 139.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS ACTUALLY BECOME LESS DEFINED.\r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE\r\nMULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER THAT WAS USED\r\nFOR THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT\r\nAND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. AN AFWA SATELLITE \r\nESTIMATE WAS NOT AVAILABLE. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED\r\nPATCHES OF WINDS NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...CELL TRACKING ONLY\r\nPRODUCED CELL MOTIONS OF 30 KT. THERFORE...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT\r\nTAND SEE SOME CONSISTENCY IN THE CENTRAL CORE CONVECTION BEFORE\r\nGIVING THIS SYSTEM A NAME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. THE FORWARD MOTION AND\r\nINITIAL POSITION ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY\r\nPERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE INNER-CORE REGION. HOWEVER\r\n...USING A MEAN CENTER POSITION STILL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nGAINING LATITUDE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO MOVE WEST TO SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD\r\nAT SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW\r\nINDICATING. THIS IS DUE TO LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE ADDING\r\nSOME BETA-DRIFT MOTION TO THE MEAN STEERING FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING THE\r\nCYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS AND PEAKING AT 68 KT\r\nIN 72 HOURS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW WITH SSTS \r\nABOVE 27C...SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS. UNLIKE TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...THIS CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nCLOSER TO THE COOLER SSTS...AND THIS IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE\r\nSLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE LATER PERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 14.1N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.5N 116.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 15.1N 119.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 122.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.9N 124.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.2N 129.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2003\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED ONLY SLIGHTLY. T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO\r\nBE FAIR AND THE OCEAN IS WARM SO CONDITIONS ARE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING. BECAUSE SHIPS MODEL INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE BUT\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DO NOT...ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nHILDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKNOTS. HOWEVER...A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY FORCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO. IN\r\nFACT...TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY MOVE HILDA WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n3 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 14.9N 115.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.5N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.6N 124.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 138.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO GIVE 35 KT FOR\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS\r\nLOOKING MORE SYMMETRICAL...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER HILDA IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO BE HALTED BY COOLER SSTS LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/12.  HILDA'S STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nCONTROLLED BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE\r\nANTICYCLONE.  HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE STORM'S\r\nFUTURE TRACK WOULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nGUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF HILDA.  THE U.K.\r\nMET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS HILDA STEERING MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF GUILLERMO...AND GRADUALLY MERGING\r\nWITH THE CIRCULATION OF THAT STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE GFS ALSO SHOWS SOME INTERACTION WITH GUILLERMO AND EVENTUALLY A\r\nMERGING OF HILDA...GUILLERMO...AND ANOTHER DISTURBANCE NEAR 135W IN\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS\r\nONES...AVOIDS SUCH COMPLEXITIES AND KEEPS HILDA SEPARATED FROM\r\nGUILLERMO BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 14.9N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.5N 118.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.0N 120.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.7N 123.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 130.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 139.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB CONTINUE TO GIVE 35 KT FOR\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY.  OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED BY INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  I WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE MAKING ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS.   FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE A VERY CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11.\r\n\r\nHILDA'S STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BE CONTROLLED BY MID-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE...AND/OR AN\r\nINTERACTION WITH GUILLERMO.  WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS GUILLERMO AND\r\nDOES NOT SUGGEST AN INTERACTION...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN\r\nGUILLERMO AS THE DOMINANT CYCLONE. HOWEVER...ONLY THE UKMET SHOWS\r\nAN INTERACTION AS THE NOGAPS KEEPS GUILLERMO TOO FAR AWAY FROM\r\nHILDA.  AT THE MOMENT...GUILLERMO IS MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN HILDA\r\nAND FORECAST TO ACCELERATE...SO THE OFFICIAL THINKING AT THIS TIME\r\nIS THAT GUILLERMO WILL NOT HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF\r\nHILDA.  THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nHILDA.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH EACH RUN...AND\r\nCURRENTLY BRINGS HILDA UP TO ONLY 48 KT.  THE SHEAR IS MODEST AND\r\nTHE WATERS ARE WARM...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING\r\nTO ITS OTHER THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR\r\nWEAKENING...AND NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO MUCH WITH HILDA\r\nEITHER.  WITH THIS UNANIMITY OF UNENTHUSIASM...AND THE POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT THE CENTER MAY BE NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE CONVECTION AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS\r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN BEFORE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 15.2N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.2N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 16.6N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 126.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 135.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n \r\nHILDA IS A VERY POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nTHOUGHT EARLIER...AND SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.  THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA AND A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL VISIBLE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CONVECTION.  IF THAT SWIRL TURNS OUT TO BE ALL THERE IS THEN\r\nA FURTHER NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WILL BE REQUIRED LATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nDOES SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION...TO 43 KT IN 36 HOURS...UNDER LIGHT\r\nSHEAR AND SSTS NEAR 27C...ALTHOUGH NO OTHER GUIDANCE DOES SO.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TOO AGRESSIVE WITH THIS CYCLONE. \r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HILDA SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nHILDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE\r\nTHAT WILL PROVIDE A BASIC WESTWARD STEERING CURRENT...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY MAY BE A RESPONSE TO THE FLOW\r\nSURROUNDING GUILLERMO.  HILDA IS NOT GAINING GROUND ON\r\nGUILLERMO...SO I DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN\r\nTHE TWO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 16.0N 118.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 16.6N 119.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 122.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.3N 124.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 135.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF HILDA HAS BECOME EXPOSED ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED FARTHER NORTH THAN ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WHILE\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED...THERE IS ENOUGH\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SUCH THAT SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES ARE STILL AT 35 KT...BUT JUST BARELY. THEREFORE...HILDA\r\nIS MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. HOWEVER...A GRADUAL TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH PRODUCING MODERATE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS TAKE HILDA\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING\r\nOF THE CYCLONE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST ALONG 135W IN\r\nTHE WAKE OF GUILLERMO. SINCE GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY\r\nOR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT MUCH OF A SYMPATHETIC\r\nRIDGE WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNORTH OF BUT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND CALLS FOR A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THEN A\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n\r\nUNLIKE GUILLERMO...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECASTS HILDA TO\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT AND SSTS DROP FROM 27C DOWN\r\nTO 25C. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND BASICALLY HOLDS THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR 72 HOURS...\r\nWITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING AFTERWARDS. THERE COULD BE SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH AND HOW LONG\r\nANY CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS GENERALLY DO NOT FAVOR MORE THAN A 10 KT\r\nINCREASE...AND ARE ACTUALLY MORE CONDUCIVE FOR WEAKENING TO OCCUR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 17.0N 119.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.5N 123.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N 125.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 128.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.8N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 142.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF HILDA REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 75 NM NORTH\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL AT\r\nMINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35\r\nKT FOR NOW.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LESS\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH EACH RUN.  HILDA IS MOVING AWAY FROM ITS\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND NOW SEEMS TO BE ISOLATED FROM ANY MOIST\r\nSOUTHERLY INFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nSPINDOWN AND DECAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN A COUPLE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 300/13. WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED\r\nAND THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND FASTER...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 17.6N 120.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.2N 122.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.6N 124.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.8N 127.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE\r\nNORTH SIDE OF THE PRIMARY PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT...SO\r\nTHAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/12.  HILD IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY TROUGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO DIG SOUTHWARD BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH WILL LIKELY\r\nWEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW HILDA TO CONTINUE A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT LEAST UNTIL THE STORM WEAKENS ENOUGH\r\nFOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO DOMINATE.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE BAMD AND LBAR CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT CALLS FOR A\r\nWESTWARD TURN AFTER 72 HR AS HILDA WEAKENS.\r\n\r\nHILDA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY\r\nWEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72\r\nHR.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS OF HILDA BEFORE\r\n120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 18.1N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.5N 123.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.8N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 128.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 19.3N 131.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATIED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RTD\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n\r\nADVISORY RE-TRANSMITTED DUE TO NETWORK COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.  QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I\r\nDATA INDICATED THE WINDS WERE STILL 35 KT PRIOR TO 16Z...BUT THERE\r\nHAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/15.  HILDA SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING BECOMES DOMINANT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...IT IS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nHILDA WILL BE MOVING INTO COLDER WATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY\r\nDECAY INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE REMNANTS OF HILDA BEFORE 120\r\nHR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 18.8N 123.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 19.2N 125.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 19.6N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.9N 130.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 20.2N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE TIGHTENED UP A LITTLE. SOME\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION STILL EXISTS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT\r\nTHAT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 30 KT...T2.0...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE TIGHTER\r\nAPPEARING CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12. HILDA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN\r\nMOVING AT 260/15 BETWEEN 18-23Z. HOWEVER...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS HAS BEEN DUE WEST AND THAT DIRECTION WAS USED FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. HILDA IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE\r\nSHALLOW IN THE VERTICAL AND...THEREFORE...BE STEERED MORE WESTERLY\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION\r\n...BUT THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 96 HOURS. THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE\r\n...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nHILDA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SST WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND\r\nALSO UNDERNEATH 30 KT OR MORE WESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS. IN\r\nADDITION...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW NOW APPEARS\r\nTO HAVE BEEN CUT OFF BY THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHICH\r\nHAS RE-DEVELOPED SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 14-15N LATITUDE.\r\nTHEREFORE...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND HILDA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 18.4N 125.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.5N 127.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.9N 129.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.2N 131.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.6N 134.4W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003\r\n\r\nHILDA IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION IN ITS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT\r\nNO CLOSER THAN 75 NM FROM THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THIS IS APPARENTLY\r\nENOUGH TO KEEP THE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  A RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE STILL AT OR ABOVE 30 KT.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HILDA IS UNDER WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WILL\r\nCONTINUE AND IN FACT STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HILDA\r\nWILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SST WATER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...AND THE CYCLONE IS CUT OFF FROM ANY WARM SOUTHERLY INFLOW.  AS\r\nA RESULT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND HILDA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY\r\nUPDATES THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  MOST GUIDANCE IS NORTH\r\nOF...AND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL...FASTER THAN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS PROBABLY RESPONDING TO A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W.  GIVEN THE LIMITED\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT HILDA\r\nWILL INTERACT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS TROUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 18.3N 126.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.6N 128.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 131.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.3N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.6N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003\r\n \r\nHILDA IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT\r\nIS VOID OF CONVECTION ELSEWHERE SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS SIMILAR.  SEA SURFACE TEMP ANALYSES\r\nINDICATE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK (MID\r\n20S C IF THE TRACK IS ON TARGET).  CONSEQUENTLY...WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AND HILDA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. \r\nTHE MODEL FORECASTS AGREE WITH SCENARIO AND NEITHER THE UKMET NOR\r\nGFS INDICATE A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE CLOSED CIRCULATION BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 285/12.  THE\r\nMODELS AGREE HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO WEST NORTHWEST\r\nUNDER A LARGE DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...CONTINUITY...AND THE GFS AND UKMET FORECASTS...WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWRDS THE WEST AS THE LOW MOVES ALMOST DUE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PETERSEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 18.6N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.1N 129.9W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 132.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.9N 134.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.3N 140.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003\r\n \r\nCORRECTED FOR 48HR FORECAST...CHANGED REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATED\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ON THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HILDA HAS CEASED\r\nPROGRESSING TOWARDS THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KNOTS BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AND DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. \r\n\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ON THE ORDER OF 25-26C. THIS...ALONG\r\nWITH THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS...SHOULD LEAD TO\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING. HILDA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS. THE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE DISSIPATION OF ITS\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nMOTION OVER THE PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS HAS BEEN RELATIVELY CONSTANT\r\nAT 280/12.  HILDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THIS TRACK PASSING\r\nSOUTH OF A LARGE WARM CORE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM. THE FORECAST USES A BLEND OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS...AND\r\nTHE UKMET WHICH INDICATE A CONTINUED FORWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE\r\nWEST AT 12 KNOTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD ACCELERATE\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS...BUT LITTLE SHOULD REMAIN OF HILDA BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER CLARK/ROTH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 19.1N 129.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.4N 131.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.8N 133.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 20.2N 136.1W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2003\r\n\r\nTHE FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILDA HAS TURNED WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION. THERE ARE ONLY A FEW PUFFS OF WEAK CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...BUT A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED\r\nWITHIN 75 NMI OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 25 KT BASED ON THE RECENT CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING THAT HAS FORMED AND A DVORAK INTENSITY OF 25 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/09...BASED ON THE LAST 5 HOURS\r\nTHAT THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN CLEARLY VISIBLE. HILDA\r\nIS EXPECTED REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUNS AND GUNA MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE SOUTHERLY INFLOW REMAINS CUTOFF BY THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nHILDA...AND ONLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION WILL KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ALIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER\r\n...HILDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A THICK FIELD OF COLD AIR\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT BEGINS NEAR 133W LONGITUDE...AND THAT IS\r\nTHE TIMING USED FOR THE BEGINNING OF DISSIPATION IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...\r\nWHICH ALSO INCREASES THE WESTERLY SHEAR TO NEAR 40 KT BY 36 HOURS\r\nAND DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 18.4N 129.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 18.6N 131.1W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 18.8N 133.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 18.9N 135.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.9N 137.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2003\r\n \r\nNIGHT-VIS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nSTARTING TO BECOME BROAD AND DIFFUSE. WHILE CONVECTION PERISTS IN\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...IT IS BEGINNING TO DECAY AND PULL AWAY\r\nFROM THE CENTER. THE CLOSEST COLD CONVECTION IS NOW 120 NM FROM THE\r\nCENTER. UNLESS THERE IS AN UNEXPECTED RESURGENCE...HILDA WILL\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 6-12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7.  THE MOTION HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS...PERHAPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE\r\nEAST.  WITH THIS CONVECTION DECAYING AND RETREATING...A FASTER\r\nTRACK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 18.4N 130.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilda","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2003\r\n \r\nCOMBINED IR CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS HILDA AS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  SINCE THE CONVECTION IS SO DISTANT FROM THE CENTER...NO\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS CAN BE ASSIGNED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n25 KT WHICH IS PROBABLY OCCURRING IN A FEW SHOWERS.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE HOSTILE OVER \r\nTHE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  THEREFORE...DESPITE THE\r\nOCCASIONAL BURST OF CONVECTION....HILDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nWEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  THE MOTION HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nSOUTH OF AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON HILDA.  FURTHER INFORMATION ON \r\nTHE REMANT LOW...CAN BE OBTAINED IN MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nTROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER \r\nNFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 18.4N 130.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 18.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-22 12:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAS BECOME\r\nSUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS SHOWING PERSISTENT COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\nIR IMAGERY INDICATES A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 18N114W.  NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE PATTERN BY FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nA SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT FOR THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON\r\nPERSISTENCE...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MODELS AND LBAR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PROPERLY INITIALIZE THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG IT REMAINS\r\nOVER WARM WATER.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THAT SHOULD BE 36\r\nHR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1200Z 20.8N 107.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.1N 107.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.6N 108.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N 109.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 23.1N 111.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH DOES NOT YET SHOW\r\nMUCH BANDING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nHAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...\r\nHOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS\r\nRIDGE YET.  THERE IS ALSO A LOW TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR\r\n18N115W. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nWHICH IS CLOSE TO THE BAM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM AFTER THAT.  NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG IT REMAINS\r\nOVER WARM WATER.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THAT SHOULD BE 36\r\nHR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND IT COULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 21.0N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.4N 107.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 108.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 22.7N 110.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1506Z SSMI PASS DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED\r\nBANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CONVECTION IS ALSO DEVELOPING JUST TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 2.0 AND SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR NOW.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...SHOULD INFLUENCE THE STEERING\r\nMOTION OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nBASED ON SOME INDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS OF A WEAKNESS\r\nDEVELOPING IN THE MID LEVELS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE GULF OF\r\nBAJA.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OVER THE\r\nLAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM SOON. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS LONG THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER...AT LEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARDS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 20.7N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 21.3N 107.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 22.7N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.5N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 25.0N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N 117.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED UPON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5\r\nFROM TAFB...2.0 FROM SAB...AND 1.5 FROM AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/02. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT ITS MOTION HAS NOT YET RESPONDED\r\nTO THIS FEATURE.  MOST OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS\r\nPATTERN BY ACCELERATING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD INITIALLY AND THEN\r\nSLOWING IT DOWN AGAIN BEYOND 24 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS  SHIFTED EASTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE\r\nNORTH. THUS...THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE...AT BEST...FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PRODUCING THE SHEAR\r\nAND DRY AIR OVER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS THUS LEAVING A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING PRIOR\r\nTO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAND NEAR 36 HOURS.  EVEN THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO RE-EMERGE OVER OPEN WATER BEYOND\r\n72 HOURS...COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nTHE WEAKENING PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 20.9N 107.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 21.6N 108.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 22.3N 108.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 23.0N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.8N 110.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 24.5N 111.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...2.5 FROM SAB...AND 2.0 FROM\r\nAFWA.  THE LATEST SSMI PASS AT 0406Z SUGGESTED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST\r\nSEEM TO BE DECREASING AND MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE\r\nVERTICAL AND INTENSIFY. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/04. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM NOW SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM INLAND UP THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE TRACK FORECAST UP THE BAJA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nAFTER LANDFALL...IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BECOMES A LITTLE DIFFICULT\r\nBECAUSE OF THE WARM SEA OF CORTES TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nCOOLER PACIFIC WATERS TO THE WEST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN\r\nAVERAGE OF THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOR A SYSTEM MOVING OVER WATER\r\nAND A SYSTEM MOVING OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nIF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST THEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS\r\nMAY BR REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND AS WELL AS LOCATIONS\r\nFARTHER NORTH ON THE BAJA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 21.2N 107.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 21.8N 108.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 22.6N 108.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.4N 109.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 24.1N 110.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 25.4N 111.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 27.1N 113.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 29.0N 114.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED AND\r\nIS NOW A TROPICAL STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE 45\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  THE EARLIER PARTLY-\r\nEXPOSED CENTER IS NO LONGER APPARENT...AND GOOD BANDING HAS\r\nDEVELOPED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW\r\nROTATING OVERSHOOTING TOPS.  THE LOCATION OF THIS APPARENT CENTER\r\nIS NOT IN REAL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER POSITIONS...BUT IF THE\r\nCENTER IS THERE THEN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS TOO LOW.   \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/05...BUT THERE IS STILL\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND HENCE\r\nTHE MOTION. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE NOW SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nRECENT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD\r\nIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE IGNACIO ALMOST DUE\r\nNORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS NEAR OR JUST\r\nOFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE UKMET HAS A TRACK\r\nALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE RECENT MARKED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT IGNACIO\r\nWILL BE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS HAD TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.  THERE IS\r\nCURRENTLY NO EVIDENCE OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR OBSERVED EARLIER.  AS\r\nLONG AS IGNACIO CONTINUES ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IT SHOULD AVOID\r\nTHE NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.  IGNACIO IS A SMALL SYSTEM OVER VERY WARM\r\nWATER...AND IT IS NOT INCONCIEVABLE THAT IT COULD REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SHOULD THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND\r\nCONTINUE THEN A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN\r\nA FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 21.8N 108.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 22.3N 109.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 23.2N 110.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 111.0W    45 KT...ALONG THE COAST\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 111.8W    35 KT...ALONG THE COAST\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-08-23 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR\r\nIGNACIO AND TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING.\r\n\r\nIGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  IR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS A WARM SPOT IN THE CENTER OF INCREASINGLY BANDED CONVECTION. \r\nSPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1630Z BY TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\nT3.5...OR 55 KT.  OUTFLOW LOOKS EXCELLENT TO THE EAST AND IS\r\nIMPROVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  WATERS ARE VERY WARM AND\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  ONLY THE\r\nINTENSITIES AND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED WITH THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1800Z 21.9N 108.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 22.3N 109.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 23.2N 110.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 111.0W    55 KT...ALONG THE COAST\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 111.8W    40 KT...ALONG THE COAST\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N 113.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003\r\n \r\nLATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  A\r\nRECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE WAS T4.0.  A FORMATIVE EYE HAS\r\nBEEN INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE\r\nPASS AT 1820Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND THE\r\nONGOING RECORD FOR LATEST FIRST HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC\r\nSEASON IS EXTENDED FOR ANOTHER THREE HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/5...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nCONVERGED...WITH THE NOGAPS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER WITH A NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND\r\nGFDL MODELS.  THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THAT IS NUDGING IGNACIO NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME SLOWING OF THE MOTION\r\nAND A PROLONGED PASSAGE OF IGNACIO OVER OR VERY NEAR THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  ONE CONCERN WITH THIS WOULD BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR VERY\r\nLARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.  FORTUNATELY...IGNACIO IS A RATHER SMALL\r\nSTORM AND THIS MAY MITIGATE THE RAINFALL DANGER SOMEWHAT.  LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD THE TRACK WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD BECAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER AND RESPOND TO DEEPER LAYER\r\nSTEERING LONGER.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS IGNACIO TO NEARLY 80 KT BEFORE\r\nPRESUMED LANDFALL...BUT A BIG CONTRIBUTOR TO THIS IS PERSISTENCE...\r\nTHE RECENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  THE GFDL BRINGS IGNACIO TO ABOUT 85\r\nKT IN 24 HOURS.  WHILE THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM THE CYCLONE IS INHIBITED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST...WITH NO ANTICYCLONE ESTABLISHED OVER\r\nIGNACIO.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE\r\nTHAN THE GUIDANCE.  WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nCATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...A CATEGORY TWO LANDFALL IS A DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 21.9N 108.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 22.5N 109.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 23.3N 110.2W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N 111.0W    60 KT...ALONG THE COAST\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.6N 111.7W    45 KT...ALONG THE COAST\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 25.5N 113.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N 113.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2003\r\n \r\nAN AMSU PASS AT 2114Z SHOWED A TINY EYE-TYPE FEATURE...BUT AFTER\r\nTHAT THE DEEP CONVECTION DECREASED AND MOVED SOUTHEASTWARD EXPOSING\r\nTHE LOW CLOUD CENTER.  OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS WERE NEAR 4.0 AND IGNACIO\r\nMAY WELL HAVE REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THAT TIME...BUT\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE AT 3.5...OR 55 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB AT 00Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. \r\nSTILL LATER...WITHIN THE LAST TWO HOURS...A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS REAPPEARING OVER THE CENTER AND IT IS LIKELY THAT\r\nIGNACIO WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT SIX TO 12 HOURS...IF IT\r\nHAS NOT ALREADY BECOME ONE.  DEPENDING ON HOW LONG IT TAKES TO\r\nREACH LAND...THE WIND SPEED COULD INCREASE TO EVEN HIGHER THAN THE\r\n75-KNOT OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04.  IGNACIO IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND ERODING THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS WITH A\r\nCONTINUED VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  THE NOGAPS IS SOMEWHAT OF AN\r\nOUTLIER WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND MOVES THE CENTER OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY IN THAT A SLIGHT DEVIATION\r\nTO THE FORECAST TRACK IN EITHER DIRECTION COULD KEEP THE\r\nCIRCULATION MOSTLY OVER WATER WHICH COULD SLOW THE WEAKENING\r\nPROCESS.  MEANWHILE THE IMMEDIATE THREAT IS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA  WHERE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY...ALONG\r\nWITH STORM SURGE FLOODING AND POSSIBLE TORRENTIAL RAINS RESULTING\r\nFROM THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  DEPENDING ON THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED...WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON\r\nSUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 22.3N 108.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 22.9N 109.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 23.5N 109.9W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 24.0N 110.3W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 24.6N 110.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 29.0N 113.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IGNACIO HAS FINALLY STRENGTHENED INTO\r\nTHE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS\r\nMAKES IGNACIO THE LATEST HURRICANE TO FORM IN THIS BASIN IN THE\r\nMODERN ERA. AN EMBEDDED EYE FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 3\r\nHOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM SAB. ALSO...DATA T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 77\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...TO 90 KT FROM AFWA. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN MODESTLY INCREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/04. ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...MOST OF THIS MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO\r\nREFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFROM THE CENTRAL U.S SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO\r\nWELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FROM IGNACIO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND THIS FEATURE\r\nMAY HAVE ALSO HELPED TO INDUCE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED OFF ON ERODING THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS. ALSO...\r\nUNLIKE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN\r\nSTRONG AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A NORTHWEST TRACK UP THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHICH COAST WILL IGNACIO TRACK\r\nALONG. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF BAJA AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS MORE NORTHERN AND\r\nEASTERN INITIAL POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GUNS AND GUNA ENSEMBLE MODELS AND HAS IGNACIO SKIRTING THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND\r\nAFTER 18 HOURS. BEFORE THEN...HOWEVER...IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO\r\nUNDERGO A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND PEAK IN ABOUT\r\n12 TO 18 HOURS AT 85 TO 90 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS BASED\r\nON THE WELL-DEVELOPED EYE SIGNATURE AND 30-KT 150 MB NORTHERLY\r\nWINDS IN THE MAZATLAN 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE\r\nOUTFLOW LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN USUAL AND IS VERY STRONG. AFTERWARDS\r\n...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nWILL STILL BE OVER WATER. ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OR\r\nLEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD EASILY RESULT IN A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THAT IS 10 TO 15 KT STRONGER OR WEAKER AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 22.7N 108.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 23.2N 109.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 23.9N 109.8W    80 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.4N 110.3W    70 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 25.0N 110.8W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 26.7N 111.7W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 28.0N 112.5W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W    60 KT...NEAR BAJA EAST COAST\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003\r\n \r\nIGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED IN\r\nVERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGES\r\nSHOW SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS.  TRMM DATA SHOWED A 10 N MI\r\nDIAMETER EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISUAL\r\nPICTURES SHOW A CLOUD-FILLED EYE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 5.0 FROM\r\nTAFB AND 4.5 FROM NESDIS AND KGWC. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90\r\nKT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC SINCE IT IS NOT CERTAIN\r\nWHETHER THE CORE WILL REMAIN OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SEA\r\nOF CORTES OR MOVE OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AND THEN\r\nASSUMES SOME INHIBITING INFLUENCE DUE TO LAND. HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS OVER OPEN WATER...IGNACIO COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nSTRONGER.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE FILLING\r\nAND DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...DEEP-LAYER MEAN HEIGHTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO RISE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS A WEAKER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.  THE GFS AND U.K. MET PREDICT A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GUNA\r\nCONSENSUS.  THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND\r\nKEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 23.3N 109.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 23.8N 109.5W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 24.4N 110.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 25.7N 111.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N 112.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 29.0N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION EVENT NOTED EARLIER TODAY HAS ENDED. TRMM AND\r\nSSM/I IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT IGNACIO HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT...WHICH COULD EXPLAIN THE RECENT LEVELING OFF IN\r\nINTENSITY.  AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS\r\nOF THE SEA OF CORTES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nIGNACIO HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO FILL AND MOVE NORTHWARD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO DEPICT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF IGNACIO FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION THROUGH\r\nTHE PERIOD.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 23.7N 109.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 24.2N 109.6W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 24.6N 110.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 25.0N 110.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.7N 111.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N 112.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n  \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2003\r\n \r\nDESPITE A CONVECTIVE BURST OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...IGNACIO HAS\r\nWEAKEND SLIGHTLY BASED ON LONGER TERM...6 HOUR...TRENDS OBSERVED IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS\r\nSTILL 90 KT...ALTHOUGH THE T NUMBER IS DOWN TO 4.0...65 KT.  THE\r\nESTIMATES FROM FROM SAB AND AFWA ARE 77 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS PARED DOWN TO 80 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY...MAKING IGNACIO A\r\nCATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. \r\n\r\nIGNACIO HAS MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...WHILE\r\nTHE SHORTER-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL ANTICYCLONE AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH\r\nOF IGNACIO OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...PRODUCING WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...AND IN SPITE OF THE WEAK\r\nSTEERING...MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE GFS TURNS IGNACIO TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND THE GUNS/GUNA ENSEMBLES BEND THE STORM SHARPLY WESTWARD\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS. THE SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PARTICULARLY\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENT IN THE LONGER RANGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES A VERY SLOW MOTION ON DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLS FOR A\r\nVERY SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING IGNACIO A\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...INCREASING INTERACTION\r\nWITH LAND WEAKENS THE CYCLONE FURTHER TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME INTENSIFICATION IN 24-36 HOURS AND\r\nFORECASTS A 90 KNOT HURRICANE AT 72 HOURS. THE VERY WARM SSTS AND\r\nLIGHT SHEAR ARE THE LARGEST CONTRIBUTORS TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS...AND SUCH A REINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IF IGNACIO CAN\r\nGET FARTHER AWAY FROM LAND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 23.9N 109.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 24.7N 110.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 25.2N 110.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 25.9N 111.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 29.0N 113.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2003\r\n \r\nIGNACIO HAS REGAINED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND AN EYE FEATURE\r\nBRIEFLY REAPPEARED IN INFRARED IMAGERY BEFORE BECOMING CLOUD\r\nCOVERED AGAIN. AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS MAINTAINED BASED \r\nON THE BRIEF EYE APPEARANCE AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF \r\n77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\n...OR 320/02. THE SHORT TERM MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC AT BEST WITH\r\nIGNACIO HAVING BRIEFLY BECOME STATIONARY A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.\r\nHOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 72 HOURS...IGNACIO HAS BEEN BASICALLY\r\nMOVING NORTHWESTWARD...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW\r\nPATTERN SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE BASED ON\r\n25/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATING ESSENTIALLY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\n700 MB AND 500 MB WINDS AND HEIGHTS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AS IT WAS IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL\r\nMODELS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO A TRACK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA. ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS KEEP IGNACIO NEAR OR\r\nEAST OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE\r\nON MAINTAINING A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT AND SHOW A FORWARD\r\nSPEED OF LESS THAN 5 KT THROUGHOUT THE 5 DAY PERIOD. THE RESULT IS\r\nTHAT LOCAL MESOSCALE EFFECTS SHOULD DETERMINE THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF\r\nIGNACIO. DEEP CONVECTION IS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AND BE SUSTAINED\r\nOVER THE VERY WARM WATER...NEAR 32C...OF THE SEA OF CORTES...AND\r\nTHAT SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CENTER EAST OF OR NEAR THE EAST COAST\r\nOF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH KEEPS IGNACIO NEAR\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF BAJA. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS MODEL. \r\n \r\nTHE SLOW WEAKENING TREND...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS RETAINED\r\nIN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. IGNACIO REMAINS A SMALL HURRICANE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO NEARLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nFOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS SO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN. HOWEVER...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST\r\n...THE SEA OF CORTES NARROWS SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF LA PAZ AND THAT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A 'SQUEEZE EFFECT' THAT SHOULD INHIBIT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL INFLOW...AND ALSO CREATE MORE LAND INTERACTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 24.0N 109.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.4N 110.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.8N 110.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N 110.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.4N 112.2W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 28.5N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2003\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH EARLIER TRMM IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL EYE...THE EYE IS NO\r\nLONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS TAKEN ON A SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE THAN BEFORE...AND \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT ABOUT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS IGNACIO AT THIS\r\nSTRENGTH FOR 24 H...WEAKENING COULD TAKE PLACE SOONER THAN\r\nINDICATED IF THERE IS SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nWITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BAJA.\r\n\r\nIGNACIO CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nAS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUES TO\r\nCREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  HOWEVER...LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THAT THERE\r\nWILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION OVER THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nWITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL\r\nREMAINS SERIOUS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 24.3N 110.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 24.6N 110.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N 110.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N 111.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 29.0N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003\r\n\r\nIGNACIO IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF THE LAND MASS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  USING\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SUPPORTS ABOUT 65 KT.  SINCE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEING AFFECTED BY LAND...GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS EVEN FASTER\r\nWEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT\r\nSTILL VERY SLOW.  THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTERWARDS...MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD MORE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE STEERING\r\nWINDS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...\r\nSO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nTHE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL AND\r\nFLOODING ARE STILL A SERIOUS THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 24.3N 110.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 110.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.9N 111.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.3N 111.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N 113.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 29.0N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2003\r\n \r\nDESPITE ANOTHER BURST OF COLD TOP CONVECTION...IGNACIO CONTINUES TO\r\nAPPEAR LESS ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMGERY. USING A COMPROMISE OF\r\nTHE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE INLAND IN 6-12 HOURS\r\nWITH A STEADY WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED. THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL ONCE\r\nAGAIN IS SUGGESTING A RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NOT AS QUICK AS SHIPS TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ INDICATE THE CENTER OF IGNACIO HAS\r\nPASSED NORTH OF THAT LOCATION AND THAT THE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nHAS RESUMED AFTER A BRIEF STALL. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP ENOUGH\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IGNACIO TO MAINTAIN A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE STEERING\r\nCURRENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...SO SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE CONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL \r\nSTILL POSE A SERIOUS THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 24.5N 110.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 24.7N 111.1W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N 111.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 25.8N 112.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 26.5N 112.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS WAXED AND WANED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND ANOTHER\r\nBURST OF COLD TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...EACH SUCCESSIVE CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DECREASED IN\r\nAREAL COVERAGE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 60\r\nKT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IGNACIO HAS\r\nMOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH PERHAPS A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND 26/00Z\r\nUPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS ACROSS MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES STILL SHOW NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW\r\nPATTERN DURING THE PAST 72 HOURS. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL\r\nCENTERED OVER THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST SHOULD INHIBIT MUCH\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AND KEEP IGNACIO MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON WHAT KIND OF VERTICAL CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINS AFTER THE SYSTEM TANGLES WITH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nMOUNTAINS. ONLY THE UKMET MODEL TAKES IGNACIO QUICKLY ACROSS THE\r\nPENINSULA AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE KEEPS A WEAK IGNACIO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LENGTH\r\nOF THE PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED THE BEST THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nBOTH THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND TIME OF DISSIPATION HAVE BEEN\r\nDECREASED SINCE IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH THE BAJA\r\nMOUNTAINS FOR A LONGER LENGTH OF TIME OWING TO THE SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT IGNACIO COULD COMPLETELY DISSIPATE\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCONTINUED SLOW MOTION MEANS THAT EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL WILL\r\nSTILL POSE SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDE THREATS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 24.6N 110.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.7N 111.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.1N 111.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N 111.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N 112.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 26.5N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 28.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT BEST ESTIMATE USING\r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF\r\nSYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTHERN BAJA SUGGEST THAT IT IS INLAND\r\nAND MOVING 310/3.  THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND EVEN IF\r\nIGNACIO EMERGES OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA...THE WATERS THERE ARE\r\nTOO COOL TO ALLOW REGENERATION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY VERY WELL\r\nDISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 25.0N 111.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N 111.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.6N 111.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003\r\n \r\nPOORLY-ORGANIZED IGNACIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER\r\nINLAND.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA REVEAL A RELATIVELY CONSISTENT\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 4 KT. \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST.  THERE IS A CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR\r\nVERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...\r\nPARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF UPSLOPE FLOW.\r\n \r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER..AND ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nGLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER OFF THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nTHERE APPEAR TO BE TOO COOL FOR SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 25.6N 111.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N 112.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 26.6N 112.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 27.3N 113.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 29.2N 114.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2003\r\n \r\nIGNACIO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES UP\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN \r\nDIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM LORETO INDICATE THAT IT IS STILL OVER LAND\r\nAND NEARBY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A MID LEVEL\r\nCLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OFF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nTERRAIN OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CIRCULATION\r\nAND REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING WITH IGNACIO BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS.    \r\n \r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSTEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OFF THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE\r\nTOO COOL FOR SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE AREAS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 26.0N 111.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.4N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.7N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 28.4N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 29.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003\r\n \r\nIGNACIO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA. SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE RISEN MORE THAN 4 MB DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS AND CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO AN ISOLATED AREA ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN BAJA COASTLINE. THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A 27/0448Z SSMI OVERPASS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL INLAND\r\nOVER SOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 35 NMI WEST OF LORETO.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO A POWER OUTAGE AT NCEP\r\n...SO ONLY THE NOGAPS...NAVY COAMPS...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS WERE\r\nAVAILABLE. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS MAINTAIN A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH KEEPS IGNACIO INLAND OVER BAJA UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OCCURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A NEW LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION COULD REDEVELOP WEST OF BAJA...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nOFFSHORE ARE 25C OR COLDER WHICH WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nREGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO REMAIN\r\nINLAND AND RAPIDLY DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AND\r\nPERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWHILE MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED JUST WEST OFFSHORE THE\r\nSOUTH CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR\r\nADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nUPSLOPE AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 26.1N 111.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 27.1N 112.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 27.7N 113.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 28.4N 113.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2003\r\n\r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISUAL IMAGES DO NOT SHOW A DISTINCT CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND SURFACE\r\nPRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE OVER THE AREA.  EVEN IF THE CENTER\r\nREMERGES OVER THE WATERS TO THE WEST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nBAJA...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.  IGNACIO SHOULD BECOME\r\nA NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER LOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...AROUND 3 KT. \r\nIGNACIO REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED FOR NOW...THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nBAJA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 26.3N 112.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.6N 112.9W    20 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 26.9N 113.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 27.3N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2003\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS A VERY DISORGANIZED...\r\nDISSIPATING SYSTEM. THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE\r\nMOVING OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...EVEN WITH VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. REMERGENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER OVER WATER MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...REGENERATION IS\r\nNOT LIKELY.    \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.  A CONTINUED SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF IGNACIO'S REMNANTS IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nOFFSHORE...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IGNACIO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 27.0N 113.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1450 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CONVECTION IS\r\nCONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED UPON DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF\r\n2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 280/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO NEAR\r\n140W. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WEST OF 140W IS ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N146W...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO\r\nBECOME REESTABLISHED.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 120 HOUR\r\nPOSITION HAS THE CYCLONE ABOUT 60 NMI SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF\r\nHAWAII.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER\r\nTHAN 28C...AND WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE\r\n27C UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES ABOUT 140W.  SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN WEAK UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COOLER WATER...MOST OF\r\nTHE STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS...THEN LEVELING\r\nOFF DUE TO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 13.8N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 131.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 14.6N 133.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.2N 135.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.7N 137.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N 149.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N 155.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...\r\nHOWEVER...A TRIM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0841Z SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER POSITION\r\nINFERRED FROM THE INFRARED IMAGERY.  BASED ON THE MICROWAVE\r\nPASS...I WILL HOLD OFF UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO A STORM FOR NOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUT THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.  I BELIEVE THE CENTER IS PROBABLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION GIVEN BELOW BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nBEFORE MAKING TOO MUCH OF AN ADJUSMENT IN THE TRACK.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD TO NEAR\r\n140W.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N145W IS FORECAST TO LIFT\r\nOUT BUT LEAVE ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THIS PATTERN FAVORS SOME REDUCTION OF\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...BOTH THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET RE-DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE WHICH...IF IT VERIFIES...\r\nWOULD FAVOR A MORE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER\r\nTHAN 28C...AND WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE\r\n27C FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nWEAK UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COOLER WATER...THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BY THEN. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS THEN LIKELY OVER\r\nTHE COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 14.7N 131.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.3N 133.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 135.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.4N 137.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N 139.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 150.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N 156.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH THE FORMATION OF A RAGGED CDO AND\r\nOCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF EYE-LIKE HOLES IN VISIBLE AND AMSU IMAGERY. \r\nHOWEVER...LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-WEST...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS IT LOOKS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED\r\nON ALL THE ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nJIMENA WITH 35 KT WINDS. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS POSITION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\n285/12...AND IT MAY BE EVEN MORE WESTWARD.  JIMENA IS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE STORM SHOULD THUS MOVE WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE BIGGEST QUESTION BEING HOW FAR NORTH. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN 14N-16.5N...WHILE THE BAM MODELS...CLIPER...\r\nAND NHC 91 FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH AND\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IF THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nCORRECT...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWEST IN\r\nSUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER 28C...AND SHOULD STAY OVER THIS TEMPERATURE\r\nFOR 12-24 HR.  AFTER ABOUT 48 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER 26C\r\nWATER.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORBALE BY THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS...SO THE SSTS SHOULD CONTROL THE INTENSITY.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE AS THE CYCLONE\r\nREACHES THE MARGINAL SSTS.  A TRACK NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nTRACK WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE A WEAKER CYCLONE...WHILE A TRACK SOUTH\r\nOF THE CURRENT FORECAST COULD ALLOW JIMENA TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 14.6N 132.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.1N 134.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.7N 136.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.2N 138.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.7N 141.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 17.5N 146.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 17.5N 152.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 17.5N 158.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2003\r\n \r\nJIMENA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS INDICATED BY INCREASED BANDING OF\r\nCOLD TOP CONVECTION AND AN OCCASIONAL APPEARANCE OF AN EYE LIKE\r\nFEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN ADDITION THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS\r\nFAIRLY SYMMETRIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...45 KT FROM SAB AND PHFO...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.   \r\n\r\nFIXES FROM ALL THE SATELLITE AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THUS THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS...295/12.\r\nJIMENA MAY ALSO BE RESPONDING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING BY TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD\r\nAFTER THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT IN 24-36 HOURS. THUS THE STORM SHOULD\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN DUE WESTWARD FOR THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AND THE GUNS/GUNA ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS AND CLOSER TO THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nJIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28C WATERS...AND SHOULD STAY OVER THIS\r\nTEMPERATURE FOR 24-36 HR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER\r\nMARGINAL SSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE\r\nBY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...SO THE SSTS ARE THE CONTROLLING FACTOR\r\nIN THE INTENSITY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO\r\nA HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...THEN MAINTAINING A STEADY STATE THROUGH\r\nTHE REMIANDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE MARGINAL\r\nSSTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 72\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SSTS SOUTH OF THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/AVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 15.6N 133.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 135.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.4N 137.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 16.8N 139.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 142.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 147.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 152.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 158.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS INTENSIFYING AS INDICATED BY INFRARED AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT\r\nFROM SAB.  A 0556Z SSMI PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE\r\nCONCENTRATED COLD CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS GAINING MORE LATITUDE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300/12...WITH A FAIR\r\nAMOUNT OF CONFIDENCE DUE TO WELL-TIMED SSMI PASSES DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. THIS MOTION IS PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF\r\nHAWAII.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO\r\nBECOME REESTABLISHED.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE BEGIN A TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE\r\nEXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF HAWAII.  SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS.  THIS TRACK IS\r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOSTLY DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS/GUNA\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28C WATERS...BUT DUE TO THE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK IT SHOULD SPEND A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER SUB-26C\r\nWATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE LEVELED OFF AT 70 KT\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT TURN TO THE WEST AS QUICKLY\r\nAS EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY COULD BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 16.4N 134.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N 136.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N 139.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 18.0N 142.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N 145.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 151.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N 156.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N 160.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT JIMENA CONTINUES\r\nTO INTENSIFY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65\r\nKT FROM SAB...55 KT FROM CPHC AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  A 0923Z TRMM\r\nPASS REVEALED A DISTINCT...SMALL EYE BENEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nBASED ON THIS DATA...THE TROPICAL STORM IS UPGRADED TO HURRICANE\r\nJIMENA WITH 65 KT SUSTAINED WINDS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGRESS...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER AT 14 KNOTS.  THE PAST FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE\r\nHELPED IN LOCATING THE POSITION AND MOTION.  THERE APPEARS TO BE\r\nLESS STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF\r\nTHE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT\r\nOUT ALLOWING THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH.  A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER \r\nA SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.\r\nONLY THE UKMET DEPICTS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS SUGGESTING A MORE\r\nPOLEWARD TRACK.  THE FORECAST TRACK AGREES WITH THE GUNS/GUNA\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nJIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS (27-28C)...BUT BASED ON\r\nTHE NAVOCEANO SST ANALYSIS...JIMENA SHOULD SPEND A LITTLE MORE TIME\r\nOVER SUB-26C WATERS AS IT MOVES WEST OF 140W.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THEREFORE LEVELED OFF AT 75 KT AFTER 24 HOURS.  THERE\r\nIS A POSSIBILTY...HOWEVER...OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48\r\nHOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER WARMER SSTS SOUTH OF\r\nTHE BIG ISLAND.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTO WEST TRACK...AND TAKES A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE UKMET MODEL...THE\r\nINTENSITY COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 16.8N 136.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 17.4N 138.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 17.8N 141.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 17.9N 144.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 17.9N 147.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 153.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N 158.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 18.0N 162.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL...ROUND...CLOUD-FILLED EYE WITH\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...AND DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND\r\nAFWA ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THIS LASTEST INFORMATION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. \r\nALL OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFDN\r\nINDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS\r\nIN 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD CREATE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  ONLY THE\r\nUKMET DEPICTS A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS SUGGESTING A TRACK TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE GUNS/GUNA CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS (27-28C)...HOWEVER...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AS IT\r\nMOVES WEST OF 140W. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEVELS OFF AT 80 KT\r\nAFTER 12 HOURS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL\r\nWEAKENS THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THE\r\nUKMET DROPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER 48\r\nHOURS. A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS...HOWEVER...OF FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HOURS IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENTERS A\r\nREGION OF WARMER SSTS SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 17.1N 137.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 139.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.8N 142.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N 146.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 17.8N 149.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 155.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 159.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 18.0N 162.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 29 2003\r\n \r\nLAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO SHOW A VERY TIGHT...10\r\nNM DIAMETER...PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE. INFRARED IMAGERY CLEARLY\r\nSHOWS CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF...AND GREATER SYMMETRY TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AROUND JIMENA. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND AFWA FURTHER SUPPORT THIS TREND...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 14\r\nKNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR BUILDING SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD\r\nHELP TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. UKMET\r\nCONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER...BEING SLOWER TO BUILD THE\r\nRIDGE AND ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TRACK FURTHER TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE\r\nISOTHERM AND WILL SOON BE ENTERING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AS IT\r\nPASSES WEST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS LEVEL AT 85 KT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH A VERY GRADUAL\r\nDECAY THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE AND FITS\r\nTHE INTENSITY TREND OF THE GFDL MODEL. THE PROSPECT FOR SOME SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nENTERS INTO A REGION OF WARMING SSTS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 17.3N 139.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 17.7N 141.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.8N 144.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.9N 147.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 151.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N 157.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 18.0N 163.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N 168.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 30 2003\r\n \r\nAFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...JIMENA APPEARS\r\nTO BE LEVELLING OFF. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING\r\nINDICATE THAT JIMENA MAINTAINS A 10 NM DIAMETER EYE...ALTHOUGH IT\r\nHAS FILLED IN SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...77 KT FROM HONOLULU...AND\r\n102 KT FROM AFWA. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 85 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT...275 AT\r\n15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR BUILDING THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN IT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JIMENA TO THE WEST...AND AT A\r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HOURS. THE UKMET PERSISTS AS THE\r\nNORTHERN OUTLIER.  GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE BUILDING\r\nRIDGE...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY\r\nIGNORED. THE FORECAST TRACK ALONG 18N IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD\r\nCONTROL THE INTENSITY. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE 26C SST ISOTHERM FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS LEVEL AT 85 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSINCE JIMENA HAS CROSSED 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE...THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 17.3N 140.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N 143.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.7N 146.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 17.9N 150.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 154.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N 160.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N 166.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N 171.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nAT 12Z...SOCORRO REPORTED A SOUTH WIND WITH A 1001.6 MB\r\nPRESSURE...AFTER REPORTING A NORTH WIND LAST NIGHT. IN ADDITION...\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT INDICATES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR\r\nSOCORRO. THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z SHOWED A DECENT...IF BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE DISTURBANCE HAS BEEN UPGRADED\r\nTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE T1.0...AT BEST.\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE POSITION OF THE CENTER AT\r\nTHIS TIME...AND THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE TO BE RELOCATED CLOSER TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AFTER MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES\r\nAVAILABLE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n295/8.  CURRENTLY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS...WHICH SEEMED\r\nTO INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM BETTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nGFS BUILDS THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE LARGE...SPRAWLING\r\nNATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 19.2N 111.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 19.7N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.3N 114.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.7N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.0N 128.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CIRCULATION...EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nMONSOON FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.  \r\nCONVECTION STILL PERSISTS HOWEVER IT IS NOT ANY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHAN SIX HOURS AGO.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS YIELDED T1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB AND T2.0 FROM AFWA. BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/6...A BIT\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION WHICH WILL STEER THE CYCLONE\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ONCE AGAIN...\r\nFOLLOWS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  BOTH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS IN A SECOND CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHWEST.    \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODEST NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HOURS.  OUR INTENSITY\r\nREFLECTS THIS TREND AND WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nFIVE DAYS.  GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 19.4N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.9N 113.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 114.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.3N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION ELONGATED\r\nNORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT CURVED\r\nBAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE EVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND ALL THREE SATELLITE FIXES\r\nARE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION NEAR A BURST OF CONVECTION.  THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THE CENTER COULD BE RE-FORMING.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PARTLY ON THE FIXES AND PARTLY ON\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 25 KT FROM SAB. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nAND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE FOR 72 HR OR SO...THEN WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A STRONG WESTERLY\r\nTROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SLOW\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME PREDOMINANT. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nBAM MODELS AND LBAR LIKELY TAKE THE SYSTEM TOO FAR NORTH INTO THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND NHC91.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C-29C...BUT THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 24C\r\nAFTER 72 HR.  THIS INDICATES A NARROW WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING. \r\nSINCE THE CONVECTION IS STRONG AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT TO\r\nMODERATE...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nIN 12 HR OR LESS AND PEAK IN 36-48 HR.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nOCCUR THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 19.6N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 113.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 20.6N 115.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.1N 117.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 21.5N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N 126.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E REMAINS\r\nSOMEWHAT ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOT\r\nCLEARLY DEFINED.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM\r\nALL THREE CENTERS AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS WELL. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSTEER THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO BUT DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION AND STRENGTH OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  ACCORDINGLY...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODEL INDICATING A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW\r\nA WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND CALLS FOR A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nWESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME\r\nPREDOMINANT. THIS IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE GFS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C-29C...BUT\r\nEXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY THE WESTWARD\r\nDISPLACEMENT OF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER.  GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN WITHIN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS BUT THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER TEMPERATURES OF\r\nLESS THAN 26C AFTER 48 HR.  THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 19.9N 113.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 20.8N 114.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 21.3N 116.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 21.9N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 12Z TRMM PASS\r\nINDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS ABOUT A\r\nDEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. FURTHER\r\nRE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY ONCE MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME\r\nAVAILABLE.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS A BROAD CIRCULATION AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/6.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nDEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE GFS...NOGAPS...AND GFDL AGREE WITH THIS INITIAL MOTION FOR THE\r\nFIRST 36-48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK OCCURS. \r\nBOTH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE INFLUENCED BY A SECOND LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...HOWEVER THE GFS INITIALIZES THE SYSTEM THE BEST AND\r\nMOVES ELEVEN-E ON A WESTERLY TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL SOLUTION OF THE GFS GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO REACH\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY.  THE NEW ADJUSTED\r\nTRACK TAKES THE DEPRESSION INTO COOLER WATERS...LESS THAN\r\n26C...AFTER 24 HOURS AND WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 21.2N 114.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 21.6N 115.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 22.3N 116.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 22.9N 118.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 23.3N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1335Z SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT WINDS\r\nSURROUNDING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WITH RAIN CONTAMINATED\r\nWINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  WHILE THIS MAY\r\nBE TOO HIGH...THE DATA SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM KEVIN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA SUPPORT ALSO SUPPORT THE UPGRADE.  KEVIN CONTINUES TO HAVE A\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION...AND MULTIPLE SWIRLS OF LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE\r\nROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON\r\nTHE MEAN CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KEVIN.  THIS SHOULD STEER KEVIN\r\nBASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS CAUSED BY\r\nA TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD TO THE U. S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  SINCE\r\nKEVIN SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER AS IT APPROACHES THE\r\nWEAKENESS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD AS LOW-LEVEL STEERING\r\nBECOMES PREDOMINANT.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nEVEN AS KEVIN IS BEING NAMED...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PEAKING AS IT\r\nHEADS FOR COLDER WATER.  THE CENTER IS BECOMING LESS INVOLVED WITH\r\nTHE CONVECTION...WHICH HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM OVER 23C-24C SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY\r\nWEAKENING.  KEVIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24-36 HR AND\r\nBECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 72-96 HR...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD SWIRL NEAR 21.8N114.2W\r\nIS THE ACTUAL CENTER AND NOT ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER.  IF\r\nTHAT IS THE CASE...THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND A FASTER WEAKENING FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 21.0N 114.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 22.2N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 22.7N 119.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 23.1N 120.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2003\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE LAST DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS WERE\r\nVISIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE QUESTION WAS...\r\nWAS ONE OF THESE THE ACTUAL CENTER OR WERE THEY ROTATING AROUND A\r\nBROADER CENTER.  ADDITIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION HAS NOT\r\nREALLY ANSWERED THE QUESTION.  THE WESTERN MOST CENTER HAS\r\nACTUALLY MOVED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH WHILE THE EASTERN MOST IS JUST\r\nABOUT GONE.  TAFB AND SAB ALSO ARE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY IN\r\nDETERMINING THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH\r\nIS TAKEN IN THIS PACKAGE...WITH A BROADER CIRCULATION DETERMINING\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n  \r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS ALSO WEAKENED THE SYSTEM AND KEVIN HAS BEEN DOWN GRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS.\r\nSHORTLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/12.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF KEVIN.  THIS SHOULD STEER KEVIN\r\nBASICALLY NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING\r\nWEAKNESS CAUSED BY A TROUGH ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD THE U. S.\r\nPACIFIC NORTHWEST.  SINCE KEVIN SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER AS\r\nIT APPROACHES THE WEAKENESS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD AS\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES PREDOMINANT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 22.1N 115.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 22.8N 116.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.4N 118.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N 120.2W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 24.2N 122.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 24.1N 124.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 24.1N 127.7W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN HAS BECOME A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0436Z TRMM\r\nPASS DEPICT THAT THE CENTER IS DISPLACED APPROXIMATELY 90 MILES\r\nNORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING...25 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nREVEALED UN-FLAGGED 30 KT WINDS AND STRONGER RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS IN\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/7. TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN IS\r\nCURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NOGAPS AND\r\nUKMET MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE WEAKENING BY 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE\r\nTO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS\r\nMAINTAINS THE RIDGE BEYOND 48. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REVEALS THAT THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS\r\nEXPOSED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...SST ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE FURTHER WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 22.5N 116.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N 117.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 23.6N 119.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 24.1N 120.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 24.2N 122.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 24.2N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nKEVIN IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING WITH AN\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED FAR TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DROPPING...\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0600 UTC FROM THE ADEOS-II SATELLITE RECORDED A\r\nFEW UNCONTAMINATED 30 KT WIND VECTORS.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STAY SOUTH OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  AS KEVIN WEAKENS...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE LEFT AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS BETWEEN THE BAMS AND GFS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE DROPPING AS THE DEPRESSION IS CROSSING\r\nTHE 25C ISOTHERM.  KEVIN IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR\r\nTOMORROW OVER WATERS NEAR 23C IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE REMNANT LOW\r\nOF KEVIN SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LARGE AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN DOWN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 23.2N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 23.7N 118.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N 120.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 24.8N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 25.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n\r\nKEVIN IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nCOMPLETELY DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  HOWEVER A 1300 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS OF 25-30 KT. \r\nSINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS NOT HAD ANY DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nCENTER IN 15 HOURS... IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY\r\nSLOWING AND 25 KT IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  \r\n \r\nA TURN TO THE LEFT HAS OCCURRED BENEATH A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/08 BUT SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE SHIFTING LEFT AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS\r\nTO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS LIKE A NO-BRAINER WITH KEVIN CROSSING\r\nTHE 24C ISOTHERM INTO COOLER WATER.  A SLOW STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY WITH AN OCCASIONAL PUFF OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE.  THE REMNANT\r\nLOW OF KEVIN SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LARGE AND WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN\r\nDOWN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 23.2N 118.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N 119.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 23.8N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N 122.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2003\r\n \r\nKEVIN IS STILL A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nIS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nIMPINGES UPON THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION INDICATED KEVIN IS SET TO TURN\r\nMORE LEFT AND EVENTUALLY TRACKS SOUTH AND WEST AS IT RESPONDS TO A\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN 300/7 AND WILL TEND MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH TIME\r\nWHICH THE FORECAST INDICATES.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE GFS MODEL SOLUTION\r\nWHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.\r\n \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS DISSIPATE KEVIN COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE 24 DEGREE C SST ISOTHERM.  BEYOND\r\n24 HR THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN BEYOND WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AS THE SYSTEM SPINS DOWN.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY TO BE\r\nISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 23.7N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 24.2N 119.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 24.5N 121.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.6N 123.0W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 24.4N 124.9W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N 127.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION\r\nAND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 345\r\nDEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN WEST IS INDICATED.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INTO HIGH SHEAR.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 16.5N 108.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 22.6N 122.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH A\r\nCURVED BAND OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE.  AN EARLY\r\nMORNING TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER IS PROBABLY A BIT\r\nFARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS\r\nTO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE WITH CIRRUS FANNING OUT NICELY TO THE\r\nNORTH. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB... THUS LINDA HAS FORMED.  \r\n \r\nTHE RELOCATION OF LINDA AND THE CURRENT MOTION CHANGING FROM\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARM WATER\r\nAND IN LIGHT SHEAR FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LINDA IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE... A\r\nFAVORABLE PLACE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS\r\nCONSERVATIVE MAINLY BECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY HAVE\r\nTO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD ON THE NEXT ADVISORY IF THE CENTER BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED OR CLOSER TO THE STRONG BANDING FEATURE. SHIPS MODEL\r\nBRINGS THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...A\r\nREASONABLE POSSIBILITY.  \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE IDEA THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE\r\nNORTHWEST AROUND THE DISTANT PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA... WITH SOME MODEST TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT BUMPS\r\nAGAINST THE HIGH AND WEAKENS DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE\r\nIS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH OVER CALIFORNIA AS\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL SUGGESTS A WEAKNESS ALONG 120W THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nA NORTHWARD TURN.  FOR NOW WE WILL STICK TO THE IDEA THAT THE RIDGE\r\nWILL HOLD AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND TURN TO THE LEFT OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND HIGH SHEAR CONDITIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 16.5N 109.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.2N 110.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.2N 111.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 113.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N 119.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 21.2N 124.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LINDA IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION... A\r\nTIGHT CIRCULATION IS APPARENT IN VISIBLE PICTURES WITH A CURVED\r\nBAND FEATURE ARCING THROUGH THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. \r\nTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED A BIT THIS AFTERNOON... INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE STILL INCREASING WITH 40 KT BEING CHOSEN AS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TAFB...SAB AND AFWA.  \r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LINDA IS LOW AT THE MOMENT AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BE SMALL FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXCELLENT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHWEST... ALSO\r\nFAVORING FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THIS\r\nSTORM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS.. AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDOES THE SAME.  AFTER 36 HOURS... A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND COOLER WATER BELOW 26C SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SLOWLY AT\r\nFIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY IN THE EXTENDED RANGE OVER SSTS NEAR\r\n23-24C.\r\n\r\nLINDA IS MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN THE MORNING ADVISORY...315/09 KT. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THROUGH THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS... CONTINUING UPON A PATH BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT.  A TURN TO THE LEFT IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS.  THIS TURN\r\nIS THE BIGGEST QUESTION WITH THE UKMET WEAKER WITH THE RIDGE NEAR\r\n120W.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE RIDGE\r\nINTACT... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS THOUGHT.  IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT MIDDLE TO HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD\r\nBE ADVECTED INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES BY ABOUT MID-WEEK.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 17.4N 110.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.2N 111.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 115.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.3N 117.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2003\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF LINDA.  THE CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED\r\nAND IS BECOMING WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8 AND HAS BEEN THE OVERALL MOTION FOR THE\r\nLAST 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS THE STORM\r\nWEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY A LOWER LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n\r\nIN A LOW-SHEARED...WARM SST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINTENSIFIES LINDA TO 63 KT IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR AND FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SSTS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 18.0N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.9N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.2N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 115.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.4N 117.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.6N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.7N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 21.7N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO GET BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH A GOOD CURVED BAND PATTERN AND THE BEGINNINGS OF A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nLINDA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD\r\nMOVE LINDA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  THIS\r\nSHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS LINDA\r\nREACHES COLDER WATER...WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.  MOST NHC GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LINDA\r\nSHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR 24-36 HR...\r\nAND THUS IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT...COLDER\r\nWATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 18.6N 111.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.7N 114.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 21.4N 116.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.8N 117.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND NOW CONTAINS A BROAD AND RAGGED BANDING\r\nEYE FEATURE. LINDA MAY BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...\r\nDUE TO THE VERY RAGGED LOOKING EYE FEATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWESTWARD TO JUST NORTHWEST OF LINDA. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR WITH A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD AFTER\r\nTHAT. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON MOVING A WEAK SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE\r\nRIDGE...AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nLINDA BY 72 HOURS. WHILE LINDA COULD RECURVE AND MOVE NORTHWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE WEAKNESS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CALLING\r\nFOR LINDA TO WEAKEN BY THAT TIME AND BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS...AND THEN A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nAFTERWARDS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO\r\nADVISORIES.  LINDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND OVER WARM SSTS OF 26-28C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. BY 36 HOURS\r\n...LINDA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT AND HIGHER.\r\nTHESE TWO NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING\r\nINITIALLY...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\nTHERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT LINDA COULD REMAIN A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nTHAN FORECAST AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL MOVING\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 19.4N 112.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.3N 113.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.3N 115.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.8N 116.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.9N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.5N 122.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 21.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA HAS DEVELOPED A 25-30 NMI\r\nDIAMETER CLOUD-FILLED BANDED EYE. A 15/1733Z SSMI OVERPASS ALSO\r\nINDICATED A GOOD MID-LEVEL EYE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. A 2-HOUR ODT AVERAGE IS T4.0...OR\r\n65 KT...WITH A PEAK ODT OF T4.3 AT 1800Z. THEREFORE...LINDA IS\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...MAKING IT ONLY THE THIRD HURRICANE\r\nOF THE 2003 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF\r\nHURRICANES BY THIS TIME OF THE SEASON IS SIX TO SEVEN. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. LINDA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN\r\nTURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE AXIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT AS FAR WEST AS 120W LONGITUDE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY ALL\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD.\r\nHOWEVER...LINDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATER AND\r\nINCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP\r\nSOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AFTERWARDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE UKMET...\r\nGFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO\r\nADVISORIES.  THE OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE EAST...BUT IS BECOMING\r\nELONGATED AND RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...LINDA COULD STILL\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATER IN 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT LINDA COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER\r\nTHAN FORECAST AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING\r\nMORE SOUTHWARD AND BACK OVER WARMER WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 20.1N 113.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.8N 114.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.8N 117.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.8N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LINDA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT\r\nA GOOD CURVED CLOUD PATTERN...BUT UNLIKE 12-24 HRS AGO THE\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE NOT AS WELL DEFINED. DRY AIR INTRUSION\r\nINTO LINDA FROM STABLE SURROUNDING AIR IS MARKED BY THINNING\r\nOUT OF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS WELL\r\nAS LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. THEREFORE\r\nWILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT THEN WEAKEN TO JUST\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. ONLY CHANGE WITH FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL BE AN ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nTRACK TO THE SOUTH AS LINDA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERGOES \r\nWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS. LINDA WILL THEN BE STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY A\r\nSTRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COASTS OF\r\nCALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 20.6N 114.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.4N 115.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 121.1W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 20.9N 122.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS SUGGESTS THAT \r\nLINDA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED\r\nBY AN SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AT 0445 WHICH SHOWED AN EXPOSED LLCC\r\nWITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BASED ON A\r\nCENTER MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  AIR FORCE GLOBAL USING THE DMSP\r\nSATELLITE WAS ABLE TO SEE THIS CENTER AND MADE AN ESTIMATE OF 55\r\nKNOTS.  THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE. \r\nTHUS...LINDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/07. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL\r\nIN AGREEMENT THAT LINDA WILL SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS MOVED A SIGNIFICANT\r\nDISTANCE TO THE LEFT OF THE LAST PACKAGE AND IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL FORECAST TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHIS NEW TRACK KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER 27 DEG C OR GREATER WATER\r\nTEMPERATURE.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE INVARIANT\r\nIN TIME BEGINNING AT 24 HOURS AND THERE AFTER.\r\n\r\nSHIP ELYA8 HAS BEEN APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AT\r\n0600Z WAS ABOUT 85 NM FROM THE CENTER.  IT OBSERVED 15 FOOT SEAS... \r\n1006.5 MBS...82 DEG F WATER TEMP AND WNW/30 KT WINDS.  THIS\r\nCONFIRMED THE RADII USED FOR THE 34 KT WINDS AND 12 FOOT SEAS IN\r\nTHIS QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 20.5N 114.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N 115.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.8N 116.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N 117.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 121.7W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 17.3N 123.2W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST\r\nAND SOUTHWEST...WHILE SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED THE CONVECTION\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nASCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT I HAVE OPTED TO\r\nKEEP THE CENTER SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND A\r\nTAD WEST OF THE LOCATION NOTED IN A 16/0446Z SSMI OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/03. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nINDICATE THAT LINDA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nEVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS PUSHED\r\nSOUTHWARD BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL-GFS MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPS LINDA OVER 27C OR WARMER SSTS AND\r\nUNDER DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nTAKES LINDA DOWN TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS AND HOLDS THAT\r\nINTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AFTER WHICH IT RE-STRENGTHENS THE\r\nCYCLONE BACK TO 44 KT BY 120 HOURS. HOWEVER... I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD\r\nTHE CYCLONE AT MINIMAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nALSO BE EMBEDDED IN VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND CLOSE TO A LARGE\r\nFIELD OF STABLE COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. THIS LOWER INTENSITY\r\nIN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL...\r\nWHICH STEADILY WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 84 HOURS. ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE LINDA BY ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 20.6N 115.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.7N 116.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.3N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 19.7N 118.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 121.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA CONTINUES\r\nTO BECOME DISORGANIZED DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nDRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON AN\r\nAVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FROM  TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA...AND SOME 40 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS NOTED IN A 16/1326Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS AGAIN NUDGED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVENTIONAL FIX LOCATION AND CLOSER TO THE\r\n16/1553Z SSMI AND 16/1326Z QUIKSCAT POSITIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. IT APPEARS THAT LINDA HAS\r\nMADE THE TURN TO THE WEST THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nINDICATING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS TRACK\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS LINDA GRADUALLY MOVES\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD UNDER A 200 MB RIDGE AXIS AND OVER 27C OR WARMER\r\nSSTS. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE\r\nINGESTS COOLER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST...AND\r\nALSO ENTRAINS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. THERE\r\nWILL LIKELY BE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT\r\nCOULD KEEP THE CIRCULATION ALIVE AS A DEPRESSION OR EVEN A MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM. BY 96 HOURS...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS\r\nFORECASTING THE MID-LEVEL AIR TO MOISTEN CONSIDERABLY...WHICH WOULD\r\nALLOW FOR MORE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS LINDA BACK TO 46 KT IN 120\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LINDA TO REGAIN\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 96 HOURS...WHICH IS HIGHLY\r\nCONTINGENT ON WHETHER THE CIRCULATION SURVIVES THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 20.7N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N 116.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.6N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.1N 118.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.6N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.8N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2003\r\n \r\nLATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LINDA\r\nCONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS RAGGED.  THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT...MOST LIKELY AS IT\r\nCONTINUES TO ENTRAIN STABLE LOW LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST. VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY ALSO SHOWED AN EXPOSED LLCC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE BEEN LOWERING AND NOW THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK. WITH THE CONTINUING\r\nINFLUENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THE WEST...LINDA IS FORECAST TO \r\nWEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS AND REMAIN AT THAT INTENSITY\r\nTHROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PACKAGE DUE TO IT MOVING OVER 27C OR\r\nWARMER WATER DURING THE PERIOD WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR BURSTS\r\nOF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF SUSTAINING IT AS A DEPRESSION. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL FORECASTS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT \r\nCAN PREVENT IT FROM MAINTAINING ITSELF AS A DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 20.6N 116.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.5N 117.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N 118.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.8N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N 119.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 121.6W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 123.1W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.3N 124.6W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Linda","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS FOR LINDA SHOWS A BEAUTIFUL SURFACE \r\nCIRCULATION WITH NO RAIN CONTAMINATED VALUES. THE REASON FOR THIS\r\nIS THAT THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION LEFT AND THE SATELLITE SENSOR\r\nCAN SEE THE SURFACE EVERYWHERE.  THERE ARE NUMEROUS 30 KT WINDS SO\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KTS IN THIS ADVISORY AND LINDA IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOL AND DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED \r\nINTO THE SYSTEM AND IS PROBABLY THE MAIN REASON FOR THE DEMISE OF\r\nLINDA...EVEN THOUGH IT IS OVER GREATER THAN 27 DEG C WATER TEMPS. \r\nCALCULATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE SHIPS MODEL IS NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY LARGE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED AT\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WERE SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WHATEVER REMAINS\r\nOF LINDA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE OFF TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND LATER\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS HIGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A 20 KT DEPRESSION\r\nBUT BRINGS IT BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM BY DAY 5.  THE REASONS SHIPS\r\nDOES THIS IS THAT THE TRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER GREATER THAN\r\n27 DEG C SSTS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR GETS SMALLER WITH TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN THE DRY COOL AIR TO\r\nTHE NORTH IT WILL NOT MAKE IT BACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS\r\nLINDA AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION OUT TO DAY 5...BUT IF NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION RETURNS SOON IT WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 20.6N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.2N 117.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.7N 117.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 19.0N 118.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N 119.9W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 121.7W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 18.3N 123.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 18.2N 124.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Linda","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2003\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED ABSENT FROM THE CENTER OF LINDA FOR\r\nABOUT THE PAST 12 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE NEAR 27C.  THIS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS\r\nCONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.... LIKELY\r\nSTABILIZING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THESE CLOUDS ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE\r\nAND LOOK TO HAVE ENVELOPED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION.  IF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THIS AFTERNOON... LINDA COULD BE\r\nDECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK STEERING\r\nFROM THE DISTANT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IF THE DEPRESSION\r\nMOVES FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AWAY FROM THE MORE STABLE AIR...IT\r\nCOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY AT THIS TIME.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 20.3N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.9N 117.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 19.4N 118.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 18.9N 119.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.4N 122.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.2N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Linda","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2003\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY A SWIRL OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH\r\nNO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  LINDA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR 18 HOURS...AND THE\r\nENTRAINMENT OF STABLE AIR IS DISSIPATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL LIKELY LINGER ON FOR A REMNANT LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK.  THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD...AROUND 220/1.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING IN A DAY OR TWO AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES\r\nRISE TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW.  \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON LINDA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 20.2N 116.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N 117.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 19.6N 117.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 19.2N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.8N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KTS.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E.  THE SYSTEM\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS\r\nPER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9...BUT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  A WEAK\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STIR\r\nTHE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEED THE TWO GLOBAL MODELS AVAILABLE AT\r\nTHIS TIME...THE AVN AND GFDL.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 17.0N 106.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.4N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N 109.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 111.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.4N 116.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 19.7N 119.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW AT 35 KTS\r\nAND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY.  ALSO...TWO SHIPS TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER REPORTED WINDS OF 30 AND 35 KTS. THEREFORE...TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARTY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER AND SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED WHEN VISIBLE IMAGES ARE AVAILABLE LATER THIS MORNING.  A\r\nWEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO\r\nSTIR THE SYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED AS PER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/FORMOSA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 17.2N 107.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.6N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.1N 110.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.4N 116.9W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N 119.8W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 122.8W    75 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003\r\n \r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSMI MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH THE\r\nFIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES...SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MARTY\r\nIS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THIS\r\nPLACES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NOW\r\nWEAKENING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT\r\nIS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.0\r\n...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6.  THERE IS A LITTLE LESS\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER NOW...SO THE PAST\r\nHISTORICAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE EAST AND SLOWER. THIS HAS\r\nHAD A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST TRACKS\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE GFDL...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND UKMET\r\nMODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST\r\nTHROUGH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFS MODEL\r\nDOES NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS MUCH AS THE OTHER THREE MODELS DO...\r\nWHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL FORECASTS MARTY TO BE A VERY WEAK SYSTEM\r\nTHAT IS DRIVEN RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES. IT APPEARS THAT NOGAPS IS KEEPING MARTY TOO WEAK...SO\r\nTHE WESTWARD TRACK HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. LESS WEIGHT\r\nHAS ALSO BEEN PLACED ON THE RECURVATURE FORECAST OF THE OTHER\r\nMODELS...EXCLUDING THE GFS. THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND THE RATHER WEAK LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nCOMPLETELY CAPTURE MARTY. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nSHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS...DUE TO THE\r\nREPOSITIONING OF THE CYCLONE CENTER AND ALSO TO BRING THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nRECURVATURE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AFTER 72 HOURS IS A\r\nLOW-PROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...BUT IT WILL GIVEN\r\nMORE CONSIDERATION IN THE NEXT ADVISORY IF MORE OF THE 12Z MODELS\r\nBEGIN TO SUGGEST A NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMARTY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 29-30C SSTS AND IN A LOW-SHEAR...\r\nLESS THAN 5 KT...UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WOULD TEND TO FAVOR\r\nA RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT SOME MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND DRY\r\nAIR IS UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONLY MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nFORECASTS. HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LATER TODAY AND THE CONVECTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY\r\n...THEN MARTY COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.4N 107.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N 108.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.4N 109.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N 111.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N 112.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 118.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 121.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...BUT BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A\r\n1632Z SSMI PASS...THE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/06.  THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 5 DAYS WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS A TURN TO THE NORTH BY 72\r\nHOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVE 30 TO 35 KNOTS.  HOWEVER A RECENT\r\n30 KNOT SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION FROM MANZANILLO MIGHT SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE WINDS ARE HIGHER AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40\r\nKNOTS.  THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 95 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS TO 70 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO 75 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS.  COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.1N 107.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.4N 108.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.9N 109.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.3N 111.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 112.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.3N 116.6W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2003\r\n \r\nLATEST AMSU DATA REVEALED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS MORE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY NOTED...SO THE INITIAL LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED \r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO REFLECT THIS OBSERVATION. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM\r\nTHIS EVENING INDICATE THAT OVERALL SYSTEM STRUCTURE HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED AS NOTED IN MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES OVER WARM\r\nWATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER... MARTY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER COOL WATER.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nFORECAST TRACK MODELS SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERLY TRACK AS THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE OUTLIER BEING THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE\r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD FOR 72 HOURS BUT EVENTUALLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.\r\n\r\nNOTE: A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE PROJECTED TRACK..AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE GFDL...WILL BRING MARTY CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARTY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 17.7N 107.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N 110.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 113.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N 116.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.  LATEST\r\nFIXES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION.  MICROWAVE\r\nDATA ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE BUT A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0448Z SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE CENTER MIGHT BE SOUTHEAST OF OUR ESTIMATED LOCATION.  IT WOULD\r\nBE BEST TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGES BEFORE DOING ANY SUBSTANTIAL\r\nRE-LOCATION.  THE MOTION IS SET TO STATIONARY FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nENOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nSTORM TO MOVE MARTY NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY.  THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL IS THE EASTERNMOST AND TAKES MARTY TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nNOGAPS AND GFDN ARE THE WESTERNMOST AND KEEP MARTY WELL WEST OF\r\nBAJA.  IT SEEMS THAT THE GFDL DEVELOPS A STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MARTY WHICH INDUCES THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS HAS A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nMARTY IS EXHIBITING VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION BUT THE ORGANIZATION\r\nIS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.  A BANDING FEATURE MAY BE\r\nTRYING TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nAFWA...SAB...AND TAFB ARE 45...45...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE\r\nTHERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE CENTER LOCATION...AND THIS HAS A\r\nBEARING ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WE WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND\r\nKEEP THE CURRENT WIND SPEED AT 45 KT. THERE IS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM BUT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL\r\nLESSEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN WARM FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS CONSIDERABLE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE\r\nAREA ABOUT 400 N MI TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARTY.  WE ARE NOT SURE\r\nWHETHER THIS WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES\r\nINCLUDE 500 TO 300 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS A PREDICTOR...BUT THE\r\nSHIPS OUTPUT HAS NOT BEEN SHOWING A NEGATIVE INTENSITY TENDENCY DUE\r\nTO THIS DRYING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nNOTE: A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PROJECTED TRACK\r\nWOULD BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THEREFORE...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARTY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FORMOSA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.7N 107.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.3N 108.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N 110.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.3N 111.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.4N 112.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N 114.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N 116.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 27.5N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER POSITION REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/03.  WITH\r\nVARYING DEGREES OF WEAKNESS TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL TRACK MODELS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 3 TO\r\n5 DAYS.  THE NOGAPS IS THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER AND THE GFDL IS THE\r\nRIGHTMOST OUTLIER SHOWING A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES THE\r\nSTORM PARALLEL TO AND ABOUT 100 TO 125 MILES OFFSHORE FROM THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF BAJA AND THEN MOVES THE CENTER INLAND OVER NORTHERN BAJA\r\nIN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nMARTY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND SIGNS OF\r\nORGANIZATION AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nAFWA...SAB...AND TAFB ARE 45...55...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE\r\nADVISORY WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS...OTHERWISE THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING\r\nTHE WIND SPEED TO 70 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS UNDER LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAND WARM SSTS.  THE TRACK MOVES MARTY OVER COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS\r\nWHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 18.0N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.6N 108.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.4N 109.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.5N 111.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N 112.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N 114.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 28.5N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N 115.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04.  THE 12Z GFS RUN SHOWS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA REPLACED BY A\r\nCUT-OFF LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM 28N 140W OVER THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON A MOSTLY NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A\r\nTRACK MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH OR CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\n48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING COLD CDO AND IMPROVING BANDING\r\nAND INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 65/65/55 KNOTS. \r\nHOWEVER A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 45\r\nKNOTS.  THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS\r\nAND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND REACH 80\r\nKNOTS IN 36 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.6N 108.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 110.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.1N 111.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 24.2N 112.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 29.0N 114.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N 114.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2003\r\n \r\nMARTY HAS MAINTAINED STRONG CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nTO NEAR -90C.  BASED ON WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND A\r\nBURSTING CDO...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 75 TO 55 KNOTS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY.  MARTY IS THEN UPGRADED TO A\r\nHURRICANE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS OR PERHAPS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AXIS OVER MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARTY TO THE NORTH\r\nTOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE ENHANCED\r\nBY THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED\r\nABOUT 1000 NM WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nCLOSELY PACKED AND CONTINUES TO BRING THE HURRICANE OVER BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. \r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE TWO MAJOR PLAYERS IN THE INTENSITY\r\nARE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LAND. SSTS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY\r\nWARM...ALMOST 30C...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA...\r\nALLOWING MARTY FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES MARTY OVER THE SOUTHERN PART\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND KEEPS IT OVER LAND BETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS\r\nBEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A QUICK\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A POTENTIALLY LONG TRACK\r\nOVER THE PENINSULA. IF MARTY MOVES BACK OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...RE-STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARTY LEFT AFTER IT\r\nCROSSES LAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 18.8N 108.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N 109.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.5N 110.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 24.5N 112.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 28.0N 113.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N 114.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 32.0N 114.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003\r\n \r\nMARTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP COLD CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nCENTER...ALBEIT WITHOUT MUCH SHAPE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA. MICROWAVE PASSES\r\nGIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A SOMEWHAT SHEARED SYSTEM...HOWEVER...WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSSIBLY DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET\r\nA LITTLE BELOW THE AVERAGE OF THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES. OVER THE PAST\r\nHOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATION OF OUTFLOW PUSHING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CORE...SO THE SHEAR MAY BE LESSENING. THE\r\nGFDL MODEL BRINGS MARTY UP TO 100 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS ABOUT 20 KT LOWER. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT AS MARTY MOVES TOWARD\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IT WILL ENTER A REGION OF STRONG\r\nDIVERGENCE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS...AND WITH THIS IN MIND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGERY...BUT A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 01Z NICELY DEFINED THE CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 330/3.  CURRENTLY...MARTY IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FORMER WILL STRENGTHEN AND IMPART A FASTER\r\nMOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THERE IS SOME VARIANCE AMONG THE\r\nTRACK MODELS...WITH THE UKMET THE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...BRINGING\r\nMARTY INTO THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. \r\nTHE GFDL TAKES MARTY FARTHER TO THE WEST...WITH A LANDFALL MUCH\r\nFARTHER UP THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 19.0N 108.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.6N 110.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 23.4N 111.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N 112.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 28.5N 113.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 32.0N 113.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/4.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING THE CENTER TO NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT SHOWING A MOSTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A SMALL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  AFTER 3 DAYS THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY.  THE GFS MODEL\r\nSHOWS THE HURRICANE BECOMING STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN BAJA WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE AN ACCELERATION NORTHWARD.  IN\r\nEITHER CASE...MARTY SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION BY THEN.\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS WARMED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE BANDING PATTERN.  THE ADVISORY 15Z INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\n70 KNOTS AND FORECAST TO 90 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THIS FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS CHANGED TO A\r\nWARNING AND A WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOTH OF A LINE FROM\r\nPUNTA ABREOJOS TO MULEGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 19.5N 109.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 20.4N 109.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 22.3N 110.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 24.6N 111.6W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.9N 112.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 34.0N 113.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM  CCA\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003\r\n\r\nRE-TRANSMITTED ONLY...ORIGINAL VERSION CORRUPTED DURING TRANSMISSION\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 AND IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED HAS INCREASED SOME.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN PRETTY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE HURRICANE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWARD FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  AFTER 3 DAYS THE MODELS DIVERGE...THE GFDL MODEL HAS THE\r\nREMNANTS MEANDERING SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MARTY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA OR OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...\r\nAND THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE REMNANTS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND\r\nMOVED EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.  THE GFDL SOLUTION SUGGESTS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY\r\nDAY 3 OR 4.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DETERIORATED TODAY AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES INDICATE THAT MARTY IS NEAR OR BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nTHE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  HOWEVER\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO ABOUT 80 KNOTS\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL AND THE GFDL IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE.  BECAUSE OF\r\nTHIS AND THE SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE EAST...A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH IS ISSUED FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO GUAYMAS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 20.5N 109.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.7N 109.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 24.1N 110.4W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.6N 111.2W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 29.1N 111.9W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 34.0N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 36.0N 111.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2003\r\n\r\nMARTY HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A RAGGED\r\nCLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BRIEFLY APPEARED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 21/1926Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE...SUGGESTING THAT THE INNER-CORE\r\nWIND FIELD REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED DRUING THE EARLIER WEAKENING\r\nPHASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90/77/55 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/AFWA...\r\nRESPECTIVELY. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ALONG WITH THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A DISTINCT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. OUTER\r\nBANDING FEATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND IMPROVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/9. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. IT APPEARS THAT MARTY\r\nIS NOW BEGINNING TO MAKE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...AND THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK. THERE IS LESS THAN 90 NMI DIFFERENCE EAST-WEST IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT 24 HOURS...SO A DIRECT HIT ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA APPEARS INEVITABLE DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 18 HOURS. AFTER CROSSING OVER INTO THE SEA OF CORTES IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO...MARTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER EXTREME\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND\r\nFIELD AS SUGGESTED BY THE SMALL...WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL EYE AND\r\nTIGHT BANDING FEATURES. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE WIND FIELD SHOULD BE\r\nABLE TO SPIN UP FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN MAINTAINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD BELOW THE TAFB 90\r\nKT DVORAK ESTIMATE AND THE 80-85 OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES. HOWEVER...THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY A GOOD INDICATION OF\r\nTHE 12 HOUR INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE 12-HOUR\r\nINTENSITY AVERAGE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 21.4N 109.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 23.1N 110.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 25.5N 110.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 27.9N 111.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 29.9N 112.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 32.5N 112.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 34.5N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED AND\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 85 KT.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nTIME LEFT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SO MARTY IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nOF CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE AT\r\nLANDFALL.  THE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY BE DISRUPTED SOMEWHAT BY\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BAJA...BUT SOME\r\nRE-ORGANIZATION/RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR ASSUMING THE CENTER\r\nMOVES BACK OVER WARM WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS NOW NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE.  MARTY IS\r\nBEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN RATHER TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED...AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE THE LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE A\r\nLITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nTAKES THE CENTER ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO THE SEA OF\r\nCORTES OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND APPROACHING THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 HOURS.  THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nEXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST OF BAJA AND THE HURRICANE\r\nWATCH IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH MARTY IS LIKELY TO BE DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWITHIN 72 HOURS...IT WILL PROBABLY SPREAD SOME MOISTURE OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 22.6N 109.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 24.4N 110.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 26.7N 110.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 29.0N 111.3W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N 111.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 33.0N 111.0W    25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/13.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES\r\nMOVING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOTION BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS\r\nNEAR THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  FOLLOWING THIS\r\nGUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK AND IS ALSO SLOWED\r\nDOWN TO NEARLY STATIONARY AFTER 36 HOURS.  ONLY THE GFDL MODEL\r\nSUGGESTS A TRACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARTY MAY BE WEAKENING SOME AS THE\r\nCIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN.  BUT THERE IS STILL\r\nCONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION AND MARTY COULD REMAIN A HURRICANE \r\nTODAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE WARM WATER OF THE GULF\r\nOF CALIFORNIA.  THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FOR ONLY\r\nVERY SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES EXTENDING THE HURRICANE WARNINGS\r\nNORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE\r\nCOAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nIF THE GFDL MODEL IS CORRECT...THERE COULD BE A SPREAD OF MOISTURE\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 24.4N 110.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 25.9N 110.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 28.2N 111.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 29.9N 112.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N 112.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N 112.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/17.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES\r\nMOVING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOTION BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS\r\nNEAR OR JUST INLAND FROM THE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND BRINGS MARTY INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO ON TUESDAY.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION\r\nINTERACTS WITH HIGH TERRAIN.  THE WIND SPEED HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65\r\nKNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.  EXCEPT FOR RAINFALL...MARTY IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO LAST VERY LONG AFTER IT MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nHURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND FOR THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF BAJA AND FOR THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE MAINLAND.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NOW SHOW SOME RAINFALL OVER THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 26.4N 110.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 27.7N 111.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 29.4N 112.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N 112.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N 112.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 32.5N 113.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 22 2003\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...BUT 22/2009Z TRMM AND 23/0117Z SSMI\r\nOVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAD REMAINED INTACT.\r\nHOWEVER...RECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM SANTA ROSALITA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE BECOMING ELONGATED...AND MAY BE STARTING\r\nTO DECOUPLE. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SURFACE\r\nPOSITION ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE\r\nMID-LEVEL SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND\r\nOF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77/65/45 KT FROM TAFB/\r\nSAB/AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/18. THERE WAS SOME ACCELERATION\r\nTO 21 KT EARLIER...BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE POSITION SUGGESTS THAT\r\nMARTY HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE TRACK WAS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATIONS BEING\r\nCLOSER TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. MARTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT GETS PICKED\r\nUP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF\r\nA LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 800 NMI WEST OF SAN DIEGO.\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AFTER MOVING\r\nINLAND. THE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME\r\nABSORBED INTO THE LARGER UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS\r\nAND THEN CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST TRACK AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nWHILE THERE MAY A FEW BRIEF BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY\r\nTONIGHT...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OVER THE RATHER NARROW\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BECOMES CONSTRICTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF MAINLAND AND BAJA MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THAT SOME OF THE\r\nRAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FUTURE REMNANTS OF MARTY WILL PROBABLY\r\nAFFECT THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 28.0N 112.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 29.4N 112.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N 113.3W    45 KT...NEAR MAINLAND MEXICO\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 32.0N 113.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 33.2N 113.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 34.2N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY SEPARATED\r\nFROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  AVERAGING THE 06Z T AND CI NUMBERS\r\nYIELDS 45 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB.  SINCE THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT THE LOW END OF THIS RANGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 335/12. MARTY CONTINUES UP THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA BUT THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASING AS INDICATED\r\nBY EARLIER TRACK GUIDANCE. MARTY IS BUMPING UP AGAINST A MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH CENTERED OVER NEVADA AND THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSLOW. THE GFDL IN FACT SUGGESTS THAT MARTY WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR\r\nFROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE CENTER INTO\r\nTHE EXTREME NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE STALLING IT. OTHER\r\nMODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME HOLDING ON TO A TRACKABLE CENTER. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND STALLS\r\nTHE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO BUT REMAIN STRONG.  THIS SHEARING FLOW...COUPLED\r\nWITH THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCES OF NEARBY HIGH TERRAIN...IS EXPECTED\r\nTO RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES...\r\nPERHAPS WITH 24-36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE AND RAINS FROM MARTY ARE SPREADING INTO ARIZONA...NEW\r\nMEXICO...AND WEST TEXAS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 28.8N 112.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N 114.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10 BASED ON A POORLY DEFINED\r\nCENTER POSITION ESTIMATE FROM INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nWAS 21 KNOTS ONLY 12 HOURS AGO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THAT SHOULD QUICKLY BRING MARTY\r\nTO A STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES KEEP MARTY AS A TROPICAL STORM AND A\r\nRECENT 30-KNOT SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM PUERTO PENASAO SUPPORTS\r\nTHIS.  EXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST NEAR THE CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT MARTY\r\nWILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING AND WARNINGS WILL BE\r\nLOWERED.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nIN FACT...FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MARTY MAY ALREADY BE DISSIPATING.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE OR RAINFALL FROM MARTY IS NEAR THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER\r\nAND RAIN OVER WEST TEXAS MAY ALSO BE ATTRIBUTED TO MARTYS LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 29.8N 113.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.5N 113.8W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE IS NO LONGER ANY DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH MARTY AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED.\r\nMARTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALL WARNINGS ARE\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER POSITION WAS LOCATED FROM THE YUMA RADAR WHICH SHOWS THE\r\nNORTHERN HALF OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  AND EVEN THE RADAR\r\nPRESENTATION WAS LOOKING SLOPPY BY 19Z.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE HAS SLOWED TO 330/03 AS SUGGESTED BY EARLIER GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS AND MEANDERING NEAR THE FAR NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nSOME RAIN HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE BORDER INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND UP\r\nTO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 30.1N 113.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.3N 113.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 23 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM YUMA ARIZONA INDICATE\r\nTHAT MARTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...EVEN\r\nTHOUGH CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE YUMA\r\nRADAR INDICATES A NEW BAND HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS\r\nWRAPPING EASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH CELL MOTION\r\nAPPROACHING 40 KT. OTHER NEW CONVECTION OF 40-45 DBZ HAS DEVELOPED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...WITH A LARGE FIELD OF 30-40DBZ ECHOES LOCATED IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION... DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 35-40\r\nKT BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT ARE INDICATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST 30 KT AT\r\nTHE SURFACE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35/30/30 FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/AFWA ALSO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT...ALBEIT LIKELY\r\nOVER JUST A VERY SMALL AREA IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/06. MARTY HAS ACTUALLY BEEN\r\nMOVING AT 8-9 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE LAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS OF YUMA RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT MARTY IS MOVING A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE COMPASS...WHICH\r\nUSUALLY SUGGESTS SLOW OR NO FORWARD SPEED. THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER MOVE INLAND. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SAYS NO\r\nAND THEY KEEP THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF THE VORTEX TRACKER SINCE SOME\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE 850 MB CENTER JUST INLAND OVER\r\nEXTREME NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. MOST OF THE\r\nNHC MODELS ALSO TAKE THE 500 MB CENTER INLAND NEAR EXTREME\r\nSOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA AND THEN TURN IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MOVES MARTY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO BEFORE TURNING IT SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. THIS IS BASED ON THE\r\nPREMISE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH...AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY RADAR IMAGERY...AND GET PUSHED NORTHWARD BY THE DEEP SOUTHERLY\r\nFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY ABOUT 650 NMI WEST OF SAN DIEGO. AFTER MOVING INLAND...\r\nMARTY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY OVER NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO...THE NORTHEASTERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN\r\nARIZONA APPEARS LIKELY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nINCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE. COORDINATION WITH WFO PHOENIX\r\nINDICATES THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTHWESTERN\r\nARIZONA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING MAY APPROACH FLASH FLOOD\r\nGUIDANCE VALUES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 30.9N 113.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 31.4N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.8N 114.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 32.3N 114.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH MARTY IS GENERATING NO DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS STILL\r\nEXHIBITING A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW RAINBANDS\r\nVISIBLE ON THE YUMA ARIZONA RADAR. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A\r\nCOUPLE OF 30 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND SO\r\nTHAT WILL REMAIN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST ABOUT STATIONARY.  MARTY IS TRAPPED IN A\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED\r\nOVER NEVADA.  NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE UKMET MOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE\r\n850 MB VORTICITY CENTERS MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIKEWISE CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION WHILE THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE\r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH...AND THIS HOPEFULLY WILL SOON BEGIN TO\r\nREDUCE THE RAINFALL BEING GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 30.8N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N 113.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2003\r\n \r\nMARTY HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE SHALLOW\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OVER MEXICO AND\r\nARIZONA. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS HOPEFULLY WILL SOON BEGIN TO REDUCE THE\r\nRAINFALL BEING GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPERAS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nLITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS WILL BE THE \r\nLAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33\r\nKWNH...BEGINNING AT 2 PM PDT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 31.2N 113.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 31.5N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 31.5N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE SMALL TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 435 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE  PAST 12 HOURS.\r\nAN EARLIER BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION...TEMPS BELOW -80C... HAS\r\nABATED SOME...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN\r\nIT DID THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A\r\nCONSENSUS T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. ALSO...A\r\n01/1652 SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS SPIRALING INTO\r\nA WELL-DEFINED LOW-/MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING STARTED AS 25-KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. TD-14E HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THE PAST 24 HOURS AS SOME LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THIS\r\nTREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. THERE\r\nIS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE GFDL...\r\nNOGAPS...AND GFS TAKE THE DEPRESSION BASICALLY SLOWLY WESTWARD\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH THE NOGAPS BEING THE SLOWEST OF THE\r\nTHREE MODELS. THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS MOVE\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR 36-48 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD INDICATING THAT RECURVATURE MAY OCCUR BY 120\r\nHOURS. THE NORTHWARD MOTION AND ANY RECURVATURE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT\r\nUPON THE INTENSITY AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NORTH OF\r\nHAWAII WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY\r\n72 HOURS ALONG 120W LONGITUDE. THE MODELS THAT TAKE THE DEPRESSION\r\nWESTWARD KEEP IT AS A WEAK SYSTEM...WHEREAS THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. WHILE TD-14E IS\r\nCURRENTLY A SMALL DIAMETER TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nFAIRLY DEEP IN THE VERTICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE MODELS WITH A SLIGHT LEANING TOWARD\r\nTHE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL...WHICH DID QUITE WELL IN PREDICTING THE\r\nEARLY RECURVATURE THAT OCCURRED WITH HURRICANE MARTY.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO NEAR 50 KT IN\r\n60-72 HOURS...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS IT AS SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE SHEAR\r\nDEVELOPS...TD-14E IS FORECAST TO BE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nAROUND 5 KT OR LESS. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...COMBINED WITH\r\nLOW SHEAR AND 28C SSTS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR SOME RAPID AND/OR\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY\r\nAIR TO THE WEST AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME EASTERLY MID-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR MAY UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nDICTATES THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 15.8N 108.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.7N 109.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.7N 110.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.8N 111.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.2N 112.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 30 KT...30 KT AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nKGWC. THERFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT.  \r\n\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER LOCATION IS\r\nSOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. A SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS\r\nBEEN MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 12 HOUR MOTION OF 265/6 WAS\r\nUSED AS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AS A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN AROUND 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nBECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD TURN\r\nTHE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK REFLECTS THIS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER\r\n72 HOURS THE GFS DEVELOPS A SYSTEM EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nINDICATES SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AND IS DISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND\r\nSTEADILY INTENSIFIES THE DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nSSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 15.6N 108.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 15.6N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.7N 110.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 16.1N 111.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.7N 112.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 114.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 115.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N 117.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND A 0404Z SSMI PASS DEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL SYMMETRIC\r\nSYSTEM WITH A COLD...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEVELOPMENT. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM\r\nAFWA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CENTER IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN\r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...HOWEVER...USE OF THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nHAS HELPED IN DETERMINING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03. A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWEST MOTION.\r\nTHE MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO IS\r\nBEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA/BAJA\r\nCOAST SHOULD CAUSE THE NORTHWEST TURN AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\nNOGAPS...GFDL...THE CANADIAN...AND THE UKMET ALL REFLECT A TURN\r\nWITHIN THE WEAKNESS WITHIN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE GFS INDICATES A\r\nWEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SHOWS LESS AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH...THUS MAINTAINING ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS TO\r\nCREATE A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS/GFDL/CANADIAN/UKMET\r\nCLUSTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND\r\nSTEADILY INTENSIFIES THE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS. LEADING\r\nTOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 15.7N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 15.8N 109.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 16.1N 110.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 16.4N 111.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N 115.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N 116.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SAB IS NOW AT 45 KT.  GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS A BIT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR ON NORA...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED\r\nOVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. COOLER WATERS\r\nSHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION.\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/03 AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nCURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF NORA.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH OR WEAKNESS ALONG 115-120W IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD\r\nTURN NORA NORTHWARD.  THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN\r\nTHE OTHER GUIDANCE...PROBABLY DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH THAT MODEL FORMS TO THE EAST OF NORA.  THE\r\nOTHER GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP THIS OTHER CYCLONE AND ARE WELL\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION.  IN FACT...THE NOGAPS MODEL\r\nSHOWS NORA MOVING OVER BAJA IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT\r\nWEST OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 15.7N 109.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.8N 109.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.3N 110.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.9N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 17.6N 111.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES...SO THE CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN RELOCATED ON THIS ADVISORY.  BEST GUESS ON CURRENT MOTION\r\nIS STATIONARY.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 120W IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH A WEAK RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...IS EXPECTED TO STEER NORA ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK.  HOWEVER IF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES MORE\r\nDOMINANT IT COULD CAUSE NORA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SIMILAR TO THE GUNA MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A RAGGED BAND\r\nHAVING DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 40 KT. \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL COOLER WATER\r\nHALTS DEVELOPMENT.  THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED... HOWEVER...THAT PURELY\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND THE GFS SHOW NORA WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 15.2N 109.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 15.3N 109.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.7N 110.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 114.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2003\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF NORA\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPROVE.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE \r\nNOW 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND KGWC.  THE INTENSITY \r\nIS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE LAST FEW VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. \r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORA ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TRACK\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nWITH NORA MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A WEAK RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE\r\nGFS CONTINUES TO BE THE LEFT-MOST MODEL...PROBABLY DUE TO THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST\r\nOF NORA.  AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MAY CAUSE A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER.  THE TRACK IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND THE \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS NORA TO A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWED THIS CLOSELY.  INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.  IN THE LONGER RANGE...NORA SHOULD WEAKEN MORE\r\nQUICKLY AS SSTS DECREASE AND THE SHEAR BECOMES QUITE STRONG.\r\n   \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 15.1N 109.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.3N 109.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.0N 110.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING OUTFLOW OVER NORA PARTICULARLY\r\nOVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY IS SHOWING\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SAME AREA...AND RAGGED\r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT FROM SAB...45 KT FROM TAFB AND KGWC.\r\nBECAUSE OF THE IMPROVED OUTFLOW PRESENTATION...COLDER TOPS AND THE\r\nDEVELOPING BANDING FEATURES...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 55 KT. A 0138Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. NORA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST EXTENT OF A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. THIS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS. NOGAPS MOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE WEAKNESS\r\nCONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET/GFDN/GFDL CONSENSUS. THE GFS\r\nSTILL REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nFROM THE NORTHWEST CREATING A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEAST TURN TOWARD\r\nBAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE SHIPS AND NOW THE GFDL MODELS\r\nINTENSIFY NORA TO A HURRICANE IN 24 AND 12 HOURS RESPECTIVELY. BOTH\r\nMODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING ABOUT THE 72 HOUR POINT\r\nAS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS\r\nBEGIN TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 15.0N 109.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 109.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 16.2N 110.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.3N 111.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 18.5N 112.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING...ESPECIALLY VERY NEAR THE\r\nCDO FEATURE OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 45 TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.\r\n\r\nBASED UPON FIXES FROM A 0239 UTC SSMI OVERPASS AND MORE RECENT\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY...NORA APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/4.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nIN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AT A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...ALONG THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THIS\r\nTRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT\r\nINCLUDES THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS NOW AGREE THAT NORA WILL SLOW\r\nDOWN CONSIDERABLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING TO THE SOUTH OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nNORA WILL REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nOVER SSTS EXCEEDING 27C FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL BRINGS THE TROPICAL STORM TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STATUS IN 24\r\nHOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY SHOULD THEN\r\nREMAIN STEADY THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  BEYOND THEN...THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY OVER 26C SSTS WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 15.5N 109.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.1N 109.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 110.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N 111.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 19.6N 112.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 21.3N 113.7W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 21.6N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nNORA IS ALMOST A HURRICANE.  RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES...FROM TRMM\r\nAT 1312 UTC AND SSMI AT 1513 UTC...REVEAL A FORMATIVE EYE AND\r\nINCREASED BANDING.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND HINTS OF AN EYE DEVELOPING WITHIN\r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ARE APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED\r\nON THIS INFORMATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE A FASTER MOTION THAN THIS\r\nMORNING...NOW 325/6. FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE AND PHILOSOPHY ARE\r\nOTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET.  THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL\r\nCIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK AND AS A RESULT FOLLOWS A MORE\r\nWESTERLY TRACK.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A\r\nVERY SLOW MOTION IN A VARIETY OF DIRECTIONS... IN AN AREA OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING TO THE SOUTH OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. \r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STATIONARY AT\r\nDAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE.\r\n \r\nNORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND OVER SSTS OF 27C OR GREATER FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. \r\nAS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL IN\r\nBRINGING THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 24 HOURS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED THEREAFTER...AS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE CYCLONE SITS OVER 26C SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 16.2N 109.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 16.9N 110.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.1N 111.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 20.4N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF NORA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB. \r\nNORA IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  AS MENTIONED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AFTERNOON MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT A EYE MAY BE FORMING BUT...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE DATA TO CONFIRM THIS.\r\n\r\nOVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 305/6. THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST\r\nAROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET.  THE GFS CONTINUES\r\nTO BE THE WESTERN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nGFS IS INTIALIZING THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK AND IS TRACKING IT FURTHER\r\nWEST.  A TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS BETWEEN \r\n115 AND 120W WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND\r\nMOVE MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST. IF THE SYSTEMS REMAINS STRONGER...IT\r\nCOULD BE STEERED MORE NORTHWARD BY THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY \r\nFLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT OF\r\nA COMPROMISE AND INDICATES A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND BRINGS\r\nNORA TO A 75 KT HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN\r\nMOVING INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER BY 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCOMMENCE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR MORE\r\nRAPIDLY AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 16.4N 110.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 17.1N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 21.7N 113.6W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 21.9N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY...\r\n \r\nLATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BANDING EYE DEVELOPMENT.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...55 KT FROM\r\nAFWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT\r\nIN BANDING STRUCTURE...NORA IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS 300/6. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS NORA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO INTO A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS. A BLEND OF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...GFDN...AND\r\nUKMET REMAINS THE BASIS OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE\r\nTHE WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS. THE LATEST RUN SUGGESTS A\r\nWEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKING WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A LOW\r\nLEVEL RIDGE. A BAROCLINIC TROUGH STILL DEVELOPS JUST EAST OF 120W\r\nCAUSING NORA TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE IN A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS. AFTERWARD...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND COOLER WATER SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 16.8N 111.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.8N 112.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 20.8N 113.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 21.6N 114.1W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 21.9N 114.1W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 22.3N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nNORA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT\r\nFROM SAB.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/6. THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS NORA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO INTO A DEVELOPING\r\nWEAKNESS. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nBUT IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.  A\r\nBAROCLINIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR 120W AND CAUSE NORA\r\nTO SLOW CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE IN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS NORA REMAINS OVER SSTS\r\nGREATER THAN 27C...AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER SSTS NEAR 26C.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 17.2N 111.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 19.3N 113.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 20.8N 114.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N 114.2W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 21.9N 114.2W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 22.4N 114.1W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nWHILE THE DEPTH OF THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nFLUCTUATING...NORA RETAINS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE UNCHANGED AT 90 KT.\r\n \r\nNORA HAS BEGUN MOVING MORE DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 315/8.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO\r\nAND INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS.  NORA WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED BY DAYS FOUR AND\r\nFIVE...WHILE MOVING SLOWLY AND TURNING SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nIN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AS NORA REMAINS OVER SSTS\r\nGREATER THAN 27C...AND WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER DUE TO STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND PASSAGE OVER SSTS NEAR 26C.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 17.7N 112.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.5N 112.9W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 21.1N 114.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 22.3N 114.2W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 23.4N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N 113.8W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nLATEST T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVE 102 AND 90 KTS RESPECTIVELY. \r\nHOWEVER...THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME OBSCURE AND THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF IS STARTING TO DISRUPT\r\nNORA'S OUTFLOW.  NORA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AT 90 KTS\r\nAND THAT IS WHAT THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNORA CONTINUES MOVING AT 315/8. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nNORTHWEST AROUND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...TURN NORTH AND SLOW DOWN \r\nDUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW AND THEN...IN\r\nABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS...BE ADVECTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY A TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST .  \r\n \r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORA THROUGH DAY 4 AND DISSIPATES\r\nTHE SYSTEM AT DAY 5.  THE MAIN REASON IS VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL HAS THE SHEAR DIRECTION COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...DUE\r\nTO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHEN IN REALITY NORA IS NOW\r\nBEGINNING TO FEEL THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF WHICH IS COMING FROM THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  SO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS USED BUT MODIFIED SLIGHTLY DUE\r\nTO THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 18.3N 112.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 20.1N 114.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 20.8N 114.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 21.4N 114.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 22.6N 114.3W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 23.7N 114.1W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 24.8N 113.9W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. \r\nHOWEVER...A 0459 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE DATA DETECTED A SMALL EYE THAT\r\nWAS OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO\r\nDECREASE EVEN THOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITIES ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nUNCHANGED DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.  BASED ON THE LOWER DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 85\r\nKT.  \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE TROUGH SEEN CURRENTLY IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY OFF THE COAST OF NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL\r\nCUT-OFF AND DROP SOUTHWARD TO JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA \r\nCOAST IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nWHAT THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON IS THE FUTURE TRACK OF NORA. THE \r\nGFS INITIALIZED A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES NORTHWEST...THEN \r\nIS PULLED EASTWARD TOWARD THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM OLAF. \r\nTHE UKMET AND NOGAPS ALSO INDICATE SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES WITH NORA MOVING NORTH THEN ABRUPTLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AROUND OLAF. THE GFDL SEEMS REASONABLE IN MOVING\r\nNORA NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD BAJA BUT IS VERY SLOW.  GIVEN\r\nTHE FORECAST AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA...ONE\r\nWOULD ASSUME THAT THE NORA SHOULD MOVE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY\r\nAND MOVES NORA A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN NORA AND OLAF.\r\n\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR MUCH FASTER DUE TO\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 18.8N 113.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.5N 113.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 20.4N 114.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 21.1N 114.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 23.5N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N 112.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nNORA IS GENERATING CONVECTIVE TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE\r\nCENTER THIS MORNING.  WHILE THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1018Z SHOWS THAT A NEARLY-CLOSED\r\nEYEWALL IS STILL PRESENT UNDER THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR NORA IS\r\nBECOMING INCREASINGLY COMPLICATED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nDEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD.  THIS BY ITSELF\r\nWOULD CAUSE NORA TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...\r\nHURRICANE OLAF IS NOW 540 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORA...AND THERE IS\r\nAN INCREASING CHANCE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES.  THE\r\nMOST LIKELY RESULT OF SUCH AN INTERACTION WOULD BE FOR NORA TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...THEN SWING MORE TO THE\r\nEAST AS INDCIATED BY THE UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS...CALLING FOR FOR NORA TO SLOW\r\nRECURVE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A\r\nLOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND MAY HAVE TO BE REVISED IN LATER\r\nPACKAGES.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER\r\nSIGNIFICANT SHEAR AS IT TRIES TO RECURVE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER 26C SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ANY INTERACTION WITH OLAF COULD ALSO CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THAT INDICATED BY THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 19.2N 113.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.9N 113.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 20.7N 114.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 21.5N 114.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 22.3N 113.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 113.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N 112.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N 110.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NORA HAS BECOME RAGGED THIS AFTERNOON. \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS STILL GENERATING CLOUD TOPS OF -80C NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS DECREASED IN SIZE AND\r\nTHE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 90 KT FROM TAFB...AND 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE BY THE OUTFLOW\r\nOF OLAF.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR NORA IS VERY\r\nCOMPLICATED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD.  THIS BY ITSELF WOULD CAUSE\r\nNORA TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  HOWEVER...HURRICANE OLAF\r\nIS NOW 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NORA...AND IT APPEARS THE TWO\r\nCYCLONES WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT.  THE MOST LIKELY\r\nRESULT OF SUCH AN INTERACTION WOULD BE FOR NORA TO MOVE SLOWLY FOR\r\nTHE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST...PERHAPS STALLING...THEN SWING MORE\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST AFTER OLAF PASSES.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO\r\nOF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH OF\r\nTHESE MODELS DISSIPATE OLAF DUE TO LANDFALL NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  IT NOW CALLS FOR NORA TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH\r\nINITIALLY...THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD BEHIND OLAF INSTEAD OF IN FRONT\r\nOF IT.  THIS IS STILL A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND MORE\r\nADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER\r\nSIGNIFICANT SHEAR AS IT TRIES TO RECURVE...EITHER FROM THE TROUGH\r\nTO THE NORTH OR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF OLAF.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STAY OVER 26C SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ANY STRONGER INTERACTION WITH OLAF COULD ALSO\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THAT INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 19.5N 113.7W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 20.1N 114.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.9N 114.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.2N 113.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 21.7N 112.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.5N 111.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 28.5N 106.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nNORA CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED.  DEEP CONVECTION IS NO\r\nLONGER PERSISTENT AND THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING UNDER SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS\r\nARE FALLING...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS IS 325/5...ALTHOUGH MORE\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD.  SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE NOGAPS AND GFDL...RESPOND BY TAKING\r\nNORA ON A FAST NORTHERLY TRACK.  HOWEVER...INTERACTION WITH OLAF\r\nWILL LIKELY RESULT IN NORA MOVING MORE SLOWLY DURING THE FIRST 36\r\nHOURS...AND MORE NORTHEASTERLY THEREAFTER.  THIS SOLUTION IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE UKMET AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.\r\n \r\nNORA IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER STEADILY INCREASING SHEAR THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...DUE TO SOME COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nFROM THE NORTH AND TO THE OUTFLOW FROM OLAF.  MEANWHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM 26C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 20.0N 114.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.5N 114.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N 113.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 22.1N 112.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N 111.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 26.0N 109.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N 108.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nora","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n\r\nNORA MAY NO LONGER BE A HURRICANE...AS IR SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER DISORGANIZED PATTERN.  A\r\n0444 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER OF NORA\r\nIS DISPLACED TO THE SE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF OLAF IS HAVING A\r\nDISRUPTING INFLUENCE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT\r\nAND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT NORA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AND THE\r\nESTIMATED MOTION IS 345/4.  THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE\r\nCOAST OF CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND REMAIN OFF\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN NORA AND OLAF TO THE EAST. THE MODELS ARE\r\nDEPICTING DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE FORECAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE RESULTS WILL BE A SLOW NORTHERLY\r\nMOTION FOR NORA...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nPENINSULA. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF OLAF.\r\n\r\nINCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AS THE MID-UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES BAJA.  THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES FASTER WEAKENING THAN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICKLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 20.3N 113.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 20.8N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 21.3N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.9N 112.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 22.7N 111.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 24.5N 110.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nSCATTEROMETER PASSES AT 0200Z AND 0600Z DO NOT SHOW ANY WIND\r\nVECTORS OVER 45 KT...AND EVEN SOME OF THESE MAY BE RAIN-INFLATED.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT AND THIS MAY STILL BE A\r\nLITTLE HIGH.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY IN\r\nEXTENT AND ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT THE SCATTEROMETER PASSES\r\nSUGGEST LITTLE MOTION...AND PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF A TURN TO THE\r\nEAST.  THE ADVISORY MOTION WILL BE STATIONARY.  THE FUTURE TRACK OF\r\nNORA DEPENDS LARGELY ON HOW DEEP A CIRCULATION IT CAN MAINTAIN. \r\nTHERE IS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORA THAT\r\nIS IMPARTING A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AT THOSE LEVELS. \r\nHOWEVER...WITH DIMINISHING CONVECTION...NORA COULD BECOME A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM AND TURN SHARPLY TO THE EAST AND PASS SOUTH OF OLAF.  GIVEN\r\nTHE DECAY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE 26C WATERS\r\nUNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NORA TO\r\nCONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TAKE THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK.  A\r\nSIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT SOUTHWARD WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WITH THE NEW TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NORA WOULD BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...SOUTHWESTERLY OR SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. \r\nAS NORA APPROACHES OLAF FROM THE WEST...THE CIRCULATION OF THE\r\nWEAKER NORA MAY BEGIN TO BE SHEARED OUT BY THE CIRCULATION OF OLAF\r\nAND DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 20.3N 113.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 20.6N 113.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 20.8N 113.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.0N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N 111.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 26.5N 107.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nANOTHER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z INDICATES THAT THE WINDS IN NORA\r\nCONTINUE TO COME DOWN...WITH ONLY SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS. \r\nTHE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ITS\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.\r\nNORA IS OVER 26C WATER AND LOOKS TO BE NEARLY SURROUNDED BY STABLE\r\nAIR.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE\r\nAPPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nGRADUAL SPIN DOWN AND DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF NORA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY. WITH THE RELOCATION OF OLAF\r\nAWAY FROM NORA...NO SIGNIFICANT BINARY INTERACTION IS\r\nEXPECTED...AND AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP A REFLECTION DOWN TO\r\nAT LEAST 850 MB OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT SOULD BEGIN TO\r\nTAKE NORA SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY\r\nDIVERGENT...WHICH IS UNDERSTANDABLE GIVEN A DECAYING SYSTEM IN A\r\nSHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 20.2N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 22.0N 112.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 24.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nWITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION GONE IT APPEARS THAT NORA HAS\r\nENVELOPED DRY AND STABLE AIR AND APPEARS TO BE WINDING DOWN.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 35 KTS.  IN ADDITION TO THE STABLE AIR\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW NOW WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ITS\r\nASSOCIATED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN AND DECAY OF THE SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY IF NORA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/2...A DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TAKE THE REMAINS OF NORA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENNINSULA\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL TRACK LARGELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 20.4N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 20.8N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 21.6N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 22.6N 110.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W    DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n\r\nNORA HARDLY QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT HAS BEEN DEVOID\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS.  NIGHTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nREVEAL A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE CENTER FAIRLY EASY TO\r\nFIND.  0133 UTC QUIKSCAT AND 0550 UTC ADIOS SCATTEROMETER DATA\r\nDETECTED 25 TO 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  THEREFORE...NORA IS DOWNGRADED\r\nTO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/3.  ALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nMOVES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND GUNS\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF NORA\r\nMOVES AS FORECAST...IT WOULD TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS. \r\nHOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY\r\nATTEMPT TO RE-STRENGTHEN.  NORA IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nWEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 20.6N 113.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N 112.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.9N 111.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.1N 110.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 24.7N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":24,"Date":"2003-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n \r\nNORA CONTINUES WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH SCATTEROMETER\r\nPASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 6Z...SUGGEST THAT WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 30\r\nKT.  NORA APPEARS TO BE IN A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT UNDER THE\r\nSHEARING OUTFLOW OF OLAF.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG\r\nOR EVEN INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FROM THE UPPER LOW TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF NORA.  A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS\r\nTHEREFORE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH WITH NORA MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS\r\nTHERE COULD BE BRIEF EPISODES OF CONVECTION.  NORA IS LIKELY TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nNORA HAS BEEN SHOVED SOUTHEASTWARD BY A SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL\r\nNORTHWESTERLIES COMING DOWN OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nBENDS THE TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER-LOW OFF\r\nBAJA BUILDS DOWNWARD TO 850 MB OR BELOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS BUT AT A\r\nSLOWER SPEED...AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK WITH THE\r\nNORTHEAST TRACK OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 20.1N 112.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.1N 111.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.8N 110.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 21.8N 109.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":25,"Date":"2003-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z SHOWING 30 KT IN A BROAD AREA SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER WAS CONFIRMED BY REPORTS FROM A SHIP AND SOCORRO ISLAND AT\r\n18Z.  NORA HAS NO DEEP CONVECTION...AND THEREFORE DOES NOT REALLY\r\nQUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...IN THE INTEREST OF SAFETY\r\nAND POTENTIAL CONTINUITY...I AM GOING TO CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR THE\r\nTIME BEING.  NORA IS HEADED FOR WARMER WATERS AND IT IS NOT\r\nINCONCEIVABLE THAT IT COULD REGAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT THAT TO HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE\r\nSUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  NEITHER THE GFDL NOR\r\nTHE SHIP MODEL REDEVELOPS NORA...ALTHOUGH NEITHER ONE IS IN A HURRY\r\nTO GET RID OF IT EITHER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/9.  NORA HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER...AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE WHOSE SPEED I LARGELY DISCOUNTED THIS\r\nMORNING.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nBE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NORA IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER COLD LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 20.1N 111.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N 109.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N 108.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.1N 108.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":26,"Date":"2003-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n \r\nNORA REMAINS A SHALLOW CIRCULATION WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE SINCE NORA IS CLOSE TO\r\nLAND...AND IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 27\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS.  WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORA COULD REGAIN\r\nCONVECTION OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THIS\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO STRONG AND PERSISTENT VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST A 25 TO 30 KT SYSTEM FOR TWO TO\r\nTHREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN LESS THAN\r\n24 HOURS...BUT IT RETAINS A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IS SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER...NOW 080/12.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE AHEAD AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NORA IS\r\nMOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER COLD LOW EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH TAKES THE REMNANT\r\nLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 20.4N 109.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N 108.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.3N 107.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 107.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.6N 108.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":27,"Date":"2003-10-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2003\r\n\r\nA PASS FROM THE ADEOS-II SEAWINDS SCATTEROMETER AROUND 0520 UTC\r\nSHOWED MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT.  THIS IS A REASONABLE\r\nESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...SINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE\r\nABOUT 30 KT 6-12 HOURS AGO AND THE SYSTEM HAS LIKELY BEEN SPINNING\r\nDOWN SINCE THAT TIME.  EVEN THOUGH THE SST IS AROUND 28 C...THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS DUE TO\r\nA STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN\r\nDOWN...AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nNORA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE LOW\r\nCENTERED JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 20.7N 108.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N 107.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N 107.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 24.1N 107.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 25.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":28,"Date":"2003-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2003\r\n \r\nNORA HAS DEVELOPED A FEW PACTHES OF DEEP CONVECTION HOWEVER...\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 25 KNOTS...MOSTLY BASED OF A SHIP\r\nOBSERVATION AND ADIOS SCATTEROMETER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST BUT THE DEPRESSION COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP\r\nINTERMITTENT CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION. DRY AIR IS SURROUNDING\r\nTHE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nNORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH AROUND\r\nA LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW BRINGING A FEW SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO VALLARTA TO LOS MOCHIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 21.8N 107.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 23.0N 107.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 27.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":29,"Date":"2003-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A SURPRISE TODAY. UNEXPECTELY...NORA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A FEW CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION INDICATING THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS NOT DISSIPATED YET. SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS\r\nREMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY\r\nTHURSDAY AND THE CYCLONE BEGIN TO WEAKEN. \r\n\r\nNORA CONTINUES TO MOVE ABOUT 020 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL BRING SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND LOS MOCHIS. \r\n `\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 22.8N 107.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 24.3N 107.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":30,"Date":"2003-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2003\r\n \r\nNORA IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NORTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.  THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO GENERATE BURSTS OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND MAZATLAN HAS REPORTED 24 KT SUSTIANED WINDS WITH A\r\nGUST TO 34 KT IN THE CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25\r\nKT BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  NORA\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO AFTER LANDFALL\r\nAND DISSIPATED WITHIN 24-36 HR.  BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...SQUALLS AND\r\nGUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nBETWEEN MAZATLAN AND LOS MOCHIS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 26N115W IS\r\nSTEERING NORA INTO MEXICO....WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT NORA\r\nWILL TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN LANDFALL AND\r\nDISSIPATION.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 23.6N 106.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N 106.9W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":31,"Date":"2003-10-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2003\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST NOT FAR FROM MAZATLAN SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAGO...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER LAND. \r\nNORA'S REMNANTS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST\r\nOF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD STEER NORA'S WEAKENING\r\nREMNANT LOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NORA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 24.2N 106.7W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 25.3N 107.3W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N 109.0W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT MICROWAVE DATA IN THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO\r\nSUGGESTED AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WITH THE NORTHEASTERN PART\r\nAPPARENT IN FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES ARE T1.5...OR 25 KT...BUT SHIP VRXO6 REPORTED 30\r\nKT AT 12Z.  THIS WIND OBSERVATION LOOKS A LITTLE ODD BUT I WILL\r\nGIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT AND SET THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO\r\n30 KT.  THERE IS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. \r\nHOWEVER... THIS IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nCONTINUITY WITH EARLIER MICROWAVE POSITIONS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF ABOUT 8 KT...BUT THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST\r\nSOMETHING SLOWER.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED...WITH\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...TO BE 290/6.  THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY\r\nIS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE FUTURE TRACK IS\r\nCOMPLICATED BY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM NORA TO ITS\r\nWEST AND ATLANTIC STORM LARRY TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE SIMPLER\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS TAKE THE DEPRESSION OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\nROUGHLY 7 KT...BUT THE GFS IS SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER TRACK.  IN THE\r\nGFS...THE ANTICYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD AFTER NORA MOVES AROUND ITS\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY...BLOCKING THE DEPRESSION.  THERE MAY ALSO BE\r\nSOME EROSION OF THE HIGH AS LARRY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.  NEITHER THE\r\nUKMET NOR THE NOGAPS HAS A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS\r\nNOT QUICKLY ENOUGH...AND IS A BLEND OF THE FAIRLY DIVERGENT\r\nBAMM...BAMS...AND GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 12.1N  99.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 12.4N 100.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 12.8N 101.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 13.1N 102.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 13.3N 103.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 14.0N 104.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nIN SPITE OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT FROM AFWA AND 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...A SHIP WITH A GOOD HISTORY REPORTED 45 KT WINDS\r\nCLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SINCE THAT TIME THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULLED A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE\r\nEXPOSED CENTER AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WINDS ARE ONLY RAISED\r\nTO 40 KT...STILL WELL ABOVE THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NECESSITATED A\r\nRELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6.  SOME FAIRLY LARGE\r\nADJUSTMENTS HAVE ALSO BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS TAKE OLAF SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN BEND THE TRACK TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AT VARIOUS RATES AS OLAF ENCOUNTERS A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH OVER MEXICO.  THERE IS A LOT OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nBEHIND TROPICAL STORM NORA THAT COULD PUSH OLAF NORTHWARD.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...WITH ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER DUE TO THE PREVAILING SHEAR...THE STORM-SCALE FORCING\r\nWOULD TEND TO DRAG THE CENTER MORE TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nNOT AS FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL/NOGAPS GUIDANCE.  OLAF COULD MOVE CLOSER\r\nTO THE COAST THAN FORECAST...BUT MY FEELING IS THAT IT WOULD HAVE\r\nTO DO SO AS A WEAK AND SHEARED SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE TAKE OLAF TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nWITHIN 36-48 HOURS.  GIVEN THE SHEAR...I FIND THAT OUTCOME HARD TO\r\nACCEPT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING...BUT ONLY AFTER\r\n36 HOURS WHEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 12.7N  99.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 13.2N 100.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 100.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 14.7N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 15.3N 101.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 15.9N 102.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2003\r\n \r\nA BURST OF CONVECTION OBSCURED THE CENTER OF OLAF SHORTLY BEFORE\r\n0000 UTC.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS ONCE AGAIN\r\nCAUSED THE CENTER TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED.  THE SHIP REFERENCED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION OBSERVED 44 KT AT 2100 UTC JUST SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  ON THIS BASES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE LOWER AND ARE BETWEEN\r\n30 AND 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 325/8. A WEAK RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO SHOULD STEER OLAF TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG RIDGE ALONG THE\r\nCOAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IS THE WESTERN MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDL KEEP A WEAKER RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND\r\nTHEREFORE BRING OLAF MUCH CLOSER TO THE COAST... WITH THE GFDL\r\nSHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT\r\nTHE 12Z UMKET DID NOT INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE INITIALIZED 14 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE...THEN INDICATES IT SHOULD ABATE AROUND 48 HOURS. \r\nDESPITE THE CURRENT SHEAR THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH \r\nBRINGS OLAF TO A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE GFDL STRENGTHENS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/JARVINEN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 13.4N  99.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.1N 100.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.8N 100.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.4N 101.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.9N 101.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 16.7N 102.8W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 17.2N 103.6W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 17.7N 104.8W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nLATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER 0332Z SSMI PASS\r\nDEPICT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TUCKED IN BENEATH\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A\r\nRAGGED BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6. A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL\r\nAND GFDN DEPICT A WEAKER RIDGE OVER MEXICO...PLACING THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO BY DAY 3. THE UKMET 0000Z RUN\r\nINITIALIZED THE SYSTEM BUT INDICATED EXCESSIVE INTERACTION WITH\r\nTROPICAL STORM LARRY. NOGAPS AND THE GFS INDICATE A STRONGER\r\nRIDGE...GFS REFLECTING THE STRONGEST OF THE TWO. BOTH ALSO SHOW THE\r\nRIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AROUND 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND\r\nOF THE GFS...NOGAPS AND THE GFDL THROUGH 72.\r\n \r\nBASED ON RECENT IMAGERY...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LETTING UP. THE\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL INTENSIFY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS. IN FACT...THE GFDL BRINGS THE\r\nINTENSITY UP TO 105 KT IN 72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INCREASES IT\r\nTO 77 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 13.8N 100.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.4N 100.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.0N 101.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.6N 101.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.1N 102.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 17.3N 104.2W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.8N 105.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WITH CONVECTIVE BURSTS OCCURRING BOTH NEAR AND TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW UP TO 55 KT...BUT SHIP KAOU WITH A RELIABLE\r\nHISTORY AND LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED ONLY ABOUT 1005 MB AND 20 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...320/7. A\r\nWEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNEARLY ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE TRACKS FROM NOGAPS AND GFDL...WHICH\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nTHE FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING OLAF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN\r\n29C THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 14.4N 101.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.9N 101.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 15.5N 102.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 102.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 103.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.2N 104.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 17.9N 104.9W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF IS STILL STRUGGLING TO BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. \r\nRECENT SSMI OVERPASSES AT 1500 AND 1608 UTC DEPICT AN ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION WITH LITTLE OR NO BANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER...DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 55 KT...WHICH ASSUMES THAT THE SURFACE\r\nWIND FIELD HAS CAUGHT UP TO THE INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE.\r\n\r\nTHE POSITION HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9.  MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODEL...DO NOT\r\nMAINTAIN A COHERENT CIRCULATION FROM WHICH TO OBTAIN TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES UPON THE GFDL...GFDN...AND\r\nNOGAPS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nTHEREAFTER.  LARGELY DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THIS\r\nFORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING OLAF IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER\r\nTHAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS A HURRICANE BY 12 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF\r\nORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF OLAF.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO AT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 15.3N 102.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.2N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 17.6N 104.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 18.2N 105.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.5N 106.3W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N 107.1W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2003\r\n \r\nWHAT A DRAMATIC IMPROVEMENT A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT CAN MAKE. \r\nOLAF IS STARTING TO LOOK MUCH BETTER AND T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nINCREASING...TAFB...4.0 AND SAB 3.5.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KTS.  \r\n \r\nTHE LATEST POSITION GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/12.  THAT WAS\r\nUSED AS INPUT TO THE GLOBAL MODELS BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN THIS AND THE 0300 UTC\r\nMOTION WILL BE DECREASED TO 300/10.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE GUNS AND GUNA COMPOSITES WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM PARALLEL TO THE\r\nCOAST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR OVER OLAF IS DECREASING AND FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER.\r\nTHE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND LARGELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  OLAF SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nSHORTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE IF THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION PERSISTS IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 15.8N 103.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 104.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 17.3N 105.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 18.1N 106.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 106.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 20.4N 107.4W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 21.3N 108.2W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 22.2N 108.9W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nAN SSMI PASS AT 0210 UTC REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER.  THE LOCATION\r\nOF THE CENTER WAS TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE LAST\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE BY ABOUT 45 NMI.  THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE POSITIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL TO THE LEFT OF THIS LOCATION.  A\r\nCOMPROMISE WAS TAKEN AND THE TRACK WAS RELOCATED TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN\r\nMAINLAND.  HOWEVER...A QUICKSCAT PASS WAS ALSO RECEIVED CONFIRMING\r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE SSMI CENTER AND SHOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.  BASED UPON THIS DATA THE\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/8.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED WITH THE UKMET OFF TOWARD THE WEST\r\nAND THE GFDL CURVING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS ROUGHLY\r\nPARALLEL THE MEXICAN COAST AND MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE MOUTH OF\r\nTHE SEA OF CORTEZ.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH ALSO INCLUDES THE GUNS AND GUNA COMPOSITES.   \r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ASSUME KNOWLEDGE OF THE\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THE CENTER WAS INCORRECTLY LOCATED\r\nON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE INTENSITY WAS TO HIGH.  ON THIS PACKAGE\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KTS.  THE SHEAR OVER\r\nOLAF IS DECREASING AND FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER. THE SSTS WILL\r\nREMAIN GREATER THAN 28C THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR INTENSIFICATION AND LARGELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH MAKES OLAF A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST BRINGS 34 KT WIND RADII VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A PORTION OF THE COASTLINE IF THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION PERSISTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 16.7N 103.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 17.5N 104.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 18.2N 105.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 105.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 19.8N 106.4W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N 107.1W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N 109.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n\r\nOLAF HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...AND\r\nTHE RADAR AT CUYUTLAN IS SHOWING A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...OLAF IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT\r\nHURRICANE.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nRESTRICTED ELSEWHERE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR STILL\r\nAFFECTS THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS\r\n540 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  AT FIRST GLANCE...THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD CAUSE OLAF TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nGUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN\r\nBOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION CAUSED MAINLY BY DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE\r\nMODELS HANDLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES.  THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS BOTH SHOW INTERACTION...WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN LOSE ONE\r\nOF THE CYCLONES BEFORE INTERACTION CAN OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...CALLING FOR OLAF TO PARALLEL THE COAST.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...AND IF\r\nINTERACTION OCCURS IT MAY ALSO BE TOO SLOW.  THIS IS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THROUGH 72 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING\r\nNORA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...\r\nASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES\r\nNOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48-72 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE\r\nFOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASES.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE... WARNINGS\r\nHAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MEXICAN COASTDUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WINDS TO THE COAST AND THE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE FORECAST TRACK.  ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 17.1N 104.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 18.9N 105.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 19.8N 106.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 22.0N 108.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N 109.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N 110.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF HAS A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THE\r\nMOMENT...AS THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD BANDING PATTERN ON\r\nTHE CUYUTLAN RADAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n65 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IS NEARING THE CENTER\r\nAT THIS TIME TO PROVIDE A BETTER POSITION AND INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS\r\n500 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OLAF AND\r\nNORA WILL COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT...AND THIS SHOULD TURN OLAF\r\nMORE NORTHWARD.  INDEED...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE\r\nTWO MODELS THAT BEST DEPICT THE INTERACTION...CALL FOR OLAF TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS\r\nAPPEARS A BIT UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT AND NOW CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AT ABOUT 96 HR...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL DEVIATION\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE MUCH\r\nEARLIER.  THIS REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AS OLAF COULD\r\nEASILY MOVE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THROUGH 48 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING\r\nNORA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...\r\nASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES\r\nNOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE\r\nFOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASES.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SATELLITE POSITION FIXES ARE SOUTH OF\r\nTHOSE FROM THE CUYUTLAN RADAR...AND THUS THE ADVISORY POSITION MAY\r\nBE TOO FAR NORTH WHEN THE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 18.1N 105.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.1N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.5N 106.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 21.8N 107.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 22.7N 107.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 24.5N 108.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 27.0N 108.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE \r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS DISAPPEARED AND AS A RESULT THE CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED.  HOWEVER...THE CUYUTLAN RADAR SHOWS A CIRCULAR\r\nEYE...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH GOOD BANDING PATTERN. \r\nEARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nMEASURED A 992 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND SURFACE WINDS AT 60 KTS TO\r\nTHE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT WAS LIMITED\r\nIN TIME IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT OBSERVED.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KTS.  CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE\r\nSAME.  OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO...AND HURRICANE NORA IS 500 NM TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT OLAF AND NORA WILL\r\nCOME CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT...AND THIS SHOULD TURN OLAF\r\nMORE NORTHWARD.  INDEED...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE\r\nTWO MODELS THAT BEST DEPICT THE INTERACTION...CALL FOR OLAF TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL NEAR CABO CORRIENTES.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS THIS\r\nAPPEARS A BIT UNLIKELY...BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nAND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AT ABOUT 96 HR...BUT\r\nANY ADDITIONAL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE\r\nCENTER ONSHORE MUCH EARLIER.  \r\n \r\nSHEAR IS DECREASING OVER OLAF...AND LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THROUGH 48 HR THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AFFECTING\r\nNORA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...\r\nASSUMING THAT INTERACTION WITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES\r\nNOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE\r\nFOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS THE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASES.\r\n \r\nINITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED UPON RECON DATA AND\r\n12-FOOT SEAS UPON SHIP OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 17.8N 105.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.7N 106.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.8N 106.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N 107.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 24.2N 107.7W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 26.6N 107.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A NEW CDO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...AND MAY HERALD SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THE CUYUTLAN RADAR\r\nHAS STOPPED REPORTING AND THUS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE\r\nLOCATION OF THE CONVECTION RELATIVE TO THE CENTER.  CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THUS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE\r\nSAME.  OLAF IS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM IN A NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION.  TWO OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND\r\nGFDL...ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS.\r\nHURRICANE NORA IS 450 NM TO THE WEST.  SOME INTERACTION IS LIKELY\r\nAS THE THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARD THE SEA OF CORTEZ.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE GIVING DIFFERENT INTERACTION SCENARIOS WITH EACH NEW\r\nFORECAST CYCLE.  EXACTLY HOW MUCH DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND SIZE\r\nOF THE CYCLONES.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST THE TWO\r\nSYSTEMS ARE NOT VERY FAR APART BUT THEY WILL BE VERY WEAK.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HR...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nUKMET...COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE MUCH EARLIER.\r\n \r\nOLAF APPEARS TO BE IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... ASSUMING THAT INTERACTION\r\nWITH NORA AND WITH THE MEXICAN COAST DOES NOT ADVERSELY AFFECT THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR\r\n48 HR...AND THEN KEEP A STEADY STATE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS\r\nTHE FORECAST SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 18.7N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.8N 107.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 22.9N 107.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 25.2N 108.1W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 27.6N 107.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF IS SHOWING LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...WITH COLD BUT SHAPELESS CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND AFWA ARE NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  WITH\r\nAN AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE...I WILL WAIT UNTIL THEY ARRIVE TO CONFIRM THE\r\nAPPARENT WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS OBSCURED AND THE INITIAL LOCATION AND\r\nMOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MICROWAVE AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY IS SUGGESTIVE OF A CENTER PERHAPS 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER WE ARE CURRENTLY TRACKING...NEAR WHERE THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER YESTERDAY.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OLAF IS\r\nMUCH FARTHER SOUTH...AND MUCH WEAKER...THAN INDICATED HERE...AND\r\nSOME MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nASSUMING THAT OLAF IS WHERE WE THINK IT IS...THE FUTURE TRACK WILL\r\nBE GOVERNED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE\r\nNORTHWARD PROGRESS OF OLAF...AND PERHAPS BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST IN 36-48 HOURS.  THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF NORA IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS.   INTERESTINGLY...THE UKMET\r\nTAKES OLAF EASTWARD IMMEDIATELY AND DISSIPATES IT...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE MICROWAVE PASSES MENTIONED EARLIER.\r\n\r\nIF OLAF MOVES NORTHWARD...IT SHOULD BE ENTERING A REGION OF HIGHER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG FLOW\r\nBETWEEN AN UPPER LOW NEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AN UPPER RIDGE\r\nOVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS A\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 19.4N 106.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 20.3N 106.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N 106.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 22.2N 106.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 23.3N 106.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 26.0N 108.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-10-06 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO OLAF HAD MECHANICAL\r\nDIFFICULTIES AND HAD TO RETURN TO BASE...IT IS NOW CLEAR THAT OLAF\r\nIS WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  OLAF\r\nIS ALSO MUCH WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER.  THESE CHANGES\r\nNECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE TRACK\r\nAND INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THE WARNINGS. \r\n\r\nTHE REVISED TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE IN\r\nCALLING FOR A NORTHWARD TRACK.  IT IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM...WHICH MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM.  A WEAK\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMUM CAN ALSO BE FOUND ALONG THIS TRACK IN THE UKMET\r\nMODEL.  GIVEN THE CHANGES IN STORM STRUCTURE THAT HAVE OCCURRED\r\nOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE WATERS ARE WARM AND OLAF COULD REINTENSIFY SOME...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE INFLOW...AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CENTER GOES INLAND.  SHOULD OLAF\r\nTAKE A TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND STAY OFFSHORE\r\nLONGER...THEN IT WOULD HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1800Z 17.8N 104.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 18.1N 104.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.9N 104.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 20.0N 104.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N 105.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N 106.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-10-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. WHAT WAS A\r\nCONVECTION-FREE CLOUD SWIRL LATE THIS MORNING HAS REDEVELOPED\r\nSTRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 12Z\r\nINDICATED THAT WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE ONLY 35 KT...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING. CONTINUED RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CIRCULATION\r\nENCOUNTERS THE MEXICAN LAND MASS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHOULD OLAF TAKE A PATH TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND STAY OFFSHORE...IT WOULD ALMOST SURELY\r\nGET STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW. HOWEVER...OLAF SHOULD ENCOUNTER\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ONCE IT GETS NORTH OF CABO\r\nCORRIENTES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/5.  A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nWEST-CENTRAL MEXICO WILL ERODE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...BUT\r\nMIGHT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP OLAF JUST OFFSHORE.  A LARGE CUTOFF\r\nLOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A\r\nBEND IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE RIGHT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT\r\nFOLLOW THE VORTEX WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nGFS THROUGH 48 H AND THE MEDIUM BAM THEREAFTER.  THE SHALLOW\r\nCIRCULATION OF WEAKENING NORA IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPACT ON THE TRACK OF OLAF.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 18.3N 104.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N 104.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.0N 105.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.3N 105.6W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N 106.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 26.5N 106.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-10-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. \r\nTHE CUYUTLAN RADAR SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE WITH BANDING.  THE EYE HAS\r\nBEEN GETTING SMALLER IN THE ANIMATION AND IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nINCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 50 KTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE NUDGED\r\nTHEIR FORECAST TRACKS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM INLAND AND CREATE A QUICKER DECAY.  HOWEVER...A SLIGHT\r\nDEVIATION TO THE LEFT WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO RE-EMERGE OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC WATERS.  A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA\r\nIS DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A BEND IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE\r\nRIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT\r\nNUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS PER THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 18.8N 104.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N 104.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.8N 105.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 22.3N 105.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N 105.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 27.7N 105.7W    DISSIPATED \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-10-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n\r\nCUYUTLAN RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST NOT\r\nFAR FROM MANZANILLO AROUND 0700 UTC.  THE RADAR DATA ALSO SHOWED AN\r\nEYEWALL STRUCTURE SO...AFTER REORGANIZING...OLAF WAS CONTINUING TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN UP UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW OVER LAND\r\n...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD TAKE PLACE.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...OLAF\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THIS COULD RESULT IN EVEN\r\nFASTER WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH...350/5.  OLAF IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM TRACK.  THE U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE MODEL TRACK IS SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER WEST...AND SHOWS OLAF\r\nMOVING BACK OVER WATER IN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER THERE MAY BE A PROBLEM\r\nWITH THE VORTEX TRACKER FOR THAT MODEL...AS IT APPEARS TO LOSE OLAF\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THEN JUMPS TO THE CENTER POSITION OF NEARBY\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 19.3N 104.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 20.2N 104.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N 105.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N 105.5W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-10-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n \r\nOLAF IS WEAKENING INLAND...BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST SO IT IS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE\r\nWARNINGS UP FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  OLAF SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nOVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AND REMAINS THE MAJOR THREAT WITH OLAF.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 350/5. OLAF IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A\r\nRIDGE OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKING OLAF FARTHER INLAND. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING SOME DIFFICULTY TRACKING THE CENTER...\r\nWHICH SUGGESTS THAT DISSIPATION MAY OCCUR SOONER THAN INDICATED\r\nBELOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 19.9N 104.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N 104.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 22.3N 105.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N 105.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olaf","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-10-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD SIGNATURE OF OLAF IS STILL FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...BUT THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE\r\nTONIGHT.  RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH THE AREAL\r\nCOVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 20.6N 104.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.6N 104.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olaf","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-10-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2003\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT OLAF NO LONGER HAS A\r\nWELL DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND HAS THEREFORE DISSIPATED OVER\r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF\r\nRAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE REMNANTS OF\r\nOLAF MOVE MOSTLY NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 21.3N 103.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2003-10-20 17:30:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n1030 AM PDT MON OCT 20 2003\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nORGANIZE THIS MORNING AND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 12Z WERE T1.5 AND T1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...BUT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL THIN BUT\r\nDECIDEDLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE ONLY THING THAT IS NOT\r\nENTIRELY CLEAR IS THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO\r\nTHE CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE TOPS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY CURRENT THAT SHOULD TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE GENERALLY WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  THE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS\r\nLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DEFLECT THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEYOND THAT...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH\r\nCOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND\r\nTO THE UPPER FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE TRACK NEAR\r\nTHE MEDIUM BAM.  THIS TRACK IS ALSO LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1630Z 10.0N 100.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 10.2N 102.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 11.6N 105.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 12.5N 107.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":2,"Date":"2003-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2003\r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ALL QUADRANTS AROUND THE\r\nCYCLONE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AT 18Z.  A 12Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 KT AT THAT TIME...AND\r\nTHE BANDING HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THEN.  THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nA VERY IMPRESSIVE DEPICTION ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOVE THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AND IS SET TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/9. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY CURRENT THAT SHOULD TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA PENINSULA. THE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS LOW SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO DEFLECT THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH COULD TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD IF IT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE\r\nUPPER FLOW. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SCATTER IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH\r\nTHE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM WESTWARD AND DISSIPATING IT...A FORECAST\r\nTHAT SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. ON THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS THE UKMET WITH A RECURVATURE\r\nTRACK TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE GFS IS IN BETWEEN...WITH A\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK INITIALLY AND THEN A HARD RIGHT TURN. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 10.5N 101.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 10.9N 103.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 11.6N 104.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 12.6N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 13.5N 108.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 15.5N 109.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":3,"Date":"2003-10-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 20 2003\r\n\r\nPATRICIA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS EVIDENCED BY\r\nINCREASING CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF\r\n3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...CLOSE\r\nTO THAT SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48-72 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME FRAME...THE GFS SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AS\r\nA RESULT OF STRONG 200 MB WESTERLIES NEAR THE PROJECTED TRACK.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH WEAKENING AS SHIPS...WHICH\r\nUSES THE SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GFS.  THIS IS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE\r\nLATEST GFDL MODEL RUN WHICH SHOWS A STRONG HURRICANE IN 4-5 DAYS. \r\nOBVIOUSLY THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8...AS PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED BY MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW\r\nCENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT\r\nTHIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ELONGATE ALONG AN\r\nEAST-WEST AXIS.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK OF\r\nPATRICIA TO BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE GFDL GUIDANCE WITH THAT MODEL\r\nNOW SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE LATTER PART\r\nOF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS SIMULATIONS SHOW A VERY WEAK\r\nSYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND IN FACT THE NOGAPS DOES NOT\r\nREALLY EVEN INITIALIZE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE LITTLE\r\nWEIGHT CAN BE PLACED ON THOSE TWO MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT 72-96 HOURS IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS FAR TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AS THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 10.6N 102.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 11.1N 103.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 12.7N 106.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 13.6N 107.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 109.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 109.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 20.0N 109.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":4,"Date":"2003-10-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nLOW CENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS. AND A WEAK RIDGE JUST NORTH AND\r\nEAST OF PATRICIA.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS TURN A STRENGTHENING\r\nSTORM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION...BUT IS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER\r\nTO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY\r\nABOUT 10 MORE KNOTS OF STRENGTHENING BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR\r\nDOMINATES.  THE GFDL AGGRESSIVELY TAKES THE WIND SPEED TO OVER 100\r\nKNOTS IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT NOT NEARLY AS MUCH AS THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 10.9N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 12.0N 105.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 12.6N 107.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 13.3N 108.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 110.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":5,"Date":"2003-10-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8.  THERE IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nLOW CENTERED NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS AND A WEAK RIDGE JUST NORTH AND\r\nEAST OF PATRICIA.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS TURN A STRENGTHENING\r\nSTORM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE LOW WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWARD SOLUTION...WHICH IS\r\nSHIFTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE A CLOSER TO THOSE\r\nMODELS...AS WELL AS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STORMS MORE RECENT NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION. \r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW\r\nANYWHERE FROM SLIGHT TO SIGNIFICANT STRENTHENING FOR PATRICIA.\r\nCONSIDERING ITS FAIRLY RAPID JUMP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE STORM UP TO 90 KTS BY HR 36 BEFORE\r\nSHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROTH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 11.8N 103.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.5N 104.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.6N 105.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.4N 106.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 107.7W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 109.1W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 19.2N 109.4W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 22.1N 108.8W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":6,"Date":"2003-10-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB SUGGEST A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION TO PATRICIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A MOVEMENT\r\nOF APPROXIMATELY 9 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...BELIEVE THIS IS A TEMPORARY\r\nFLUCTUATION IN THE TRACK...WITH THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK KEEPING A\r\nMOTION OF 305-310 DEGREES FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TURNING THE\r\nSYSTEM MORE NORTHERLY BEYOND 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nPATRICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST NORTH WESTWARD ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER WESTERN NOAM.  A\r\nWEAK MID LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS UPPER\r\nHIGH NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF PATRICIA...BUT APPEARS\r\nNOT TO BE INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM TRACK WISE OR INTENSITY WISE AT\r\nTHE MOMENT.\r\n\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE SPREAD IN LATEST GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY\r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS WHEN ONE CLUSTER OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FIVE DAY FORECAT PERIOD,\r\nWHILE A SECOND SET TAKES PATRICIA ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  WITH\r\nINDICATIONS IN LATEST GFS AND UKMET THAT THE WESTEN NOAM UPPER\r\nRIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THU...BELIEVE THE MODEL CLUSTERS\r\nSUGGESTING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK ARE REASONABLE.  THIS IS THE\r\nDIRECTION THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWED....BEING TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK GIVEN LATEST MOVEMENT.  LATEST TRACK ALSO SLOWED\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AS PATRICIA MAY MOVE INTO A GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW\r\nREGIME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 4.0.  THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.  WITH THE\r\nMAIN SHEAR THREAT APPEARING TO BE THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...AND THIS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD\r\nTHU...BELIEVE PATRICIA MAY NOT ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT SHEAR TO\r\nWEAKEN IT.  OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS PATRICIA TO 95 KTS\r\nBY 48 HOURS...WEAKENING IT BEYOND THIS AS THE SYSTEM THEN BEGINS TO\r\nMOVE A  MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ORAVEC\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 11.7N 104.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 12.3N 105.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.1N 106.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.1N 109.7W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 109.8W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 109.8W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":7,"Date":"2003-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 21 2003\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 4.5 FROM TAFB...BUT REMAIN AT 4.0 FROM\r\nSAB AND AFWA.  AS A COMPROMISE...INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET\r\nAT 70 KT.  THERE IS SOME RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT THIS TIME.  I HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE LIKELIHOOD OF\r\nINCREASING SHEAR.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH HAS NOT BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES MUCH THIS SEASON...PREDICTS PATRICIA TO BECOME A VERY\r\nSTRONG HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES WNW...290/9.  THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT AMONG\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE THAN I WOULD LIKE TO SEE.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE GFS AND NOGAPS PREDICTONS SHOW VERY LITTLE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF PATRICIA...THEY TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nON A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS PRESUMABLY BECAUSE THESE MODELS WEAKEN PATRICIA TO\r\nA SHALLOW SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nGFDL TURNS PATRICIA NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...AS IT DEPICTS A VERY DEEP HURRICANE THAT WOULD RESPOND TO\r\nTHE STEERING PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET TRACK EXCEPT LATE IN THE PERIOD WHERE\r\nTHAT MODEL TURNS PATRICIA SHARPLY TO THE LEFT.  THE SLOW FORWARD\r\nSPEED SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS AT\r\nLEAST IN PART DUE TO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES AT THESE TIME\r\nRANGES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 12.0N 105.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 12.5N 106.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 13.3N 107.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.0N 109.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 111.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":8,"Date":"2003-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2003\r\n \r\nSSM/I AND TRMM OVERPASSES AT ABOUT 04Z INDICATE THAT PATRICIA HAS\r\nBECOME SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CONVECTION.  THIS DEVELOPMENT IS NOT APPARENT YET IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS THE CENTER IS STILL UNDER OR\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEMISE\r\nOF THE EYE THAT WAS PRESENT IN MICROWAVE DATA NEAR 21/12Z...THE\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE\r\nJOINED AT THE HIP.  A WELL-DEVELOPED PATRICIA WOULD TURN NORTHWARD\r\nAND NORTHEASTWARD...AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL...GFDN...AND LBAR. \r\nTHIS WOULD TAKE THE STORM INTO AN AREA OF STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nTHAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A LESS-DEVELOPED\r\nSYSTEM WOULD TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN LINE WITH THE GFS...\r\nBAMS...AND BAMM...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM THE\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR AND ALLOW SOME DEVELOPMENT.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nARE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT PATRICIA WILL STAY WELL ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD...BUT NOT WELL ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZED...PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO FULLY\r\nRECURVE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH NHC91 AND BAMD.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE\r\nPATH OF PATRICIA.  HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT THE STRONGEST FLOW\r\nSHOULD STAY NORTH OF 17N.  THE GFDL STRENGTHENS PATRICIA TO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR DURING RECURVATURE.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE SHIPS MODEL SEES ENOUGH SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTO CALL FOR STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 12 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AND MAINTAIN SOME\r\nCONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BY CALLING FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 12.1N 106.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 12.5N 107.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.1N 108.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 13.9N 109.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.8N 110.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":9,"Date":"2003-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 22 2003\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH THAT HAS CHANGED WITH PATRICIA OVER THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS.  THE CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY T/CI NUMBERS ARE 3.5/4.5...\r\nAND SO I WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT UNTIL THE\r\nSTRUCTURE CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY OR\r\nADDITIONAL MICROWAVE PASSES IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  THERE IS A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSEPARATING PATRICIA FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY LARGE SPREAD\r\nIN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE AVN KEEPING A WEAK CYCLONE\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nAND GFDL BRING A STRONGER CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS IS IN BETWEEN.  NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL RESPONDS TO STRONG UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WESTERLIES BY RECURVING A MAJOR HURRICANE INTO NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...WHILE MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE WEAKENS THE CYCLONE\r\nAND TAKES IT WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK TOOK A MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS AND I\r\nHAVE NO PARTICULAR REASON YET TO CHOOSE ONE OVER THE OTHER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...\r\nMY SUSPICION IS THAT THE GFDL SCENARIO IN PARTICULAR IS UNLIKELY\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE PRESENT\r\nNORTH OF ABOUT 17N.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 12.3N 106.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 12.6N 108.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.3N 109.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.1N 110.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 111.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 112.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":10,"Date":"2003-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2003\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR INITIAL POSITION\r\n \r\nIN THE LIGHT OF DAY...PATRICIA DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HEALTHY\r\nCYCLONE...WITH A CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT SOMETHING IN THE VICINITY OF 55\r\nKT...WHICH MAY BE A SHADE HIGH GIVEN THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\nSHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW/CIMSS SHOWS LESS THAN 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR...BUT THAT WAS APPARENTLY ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE CORE\r\nSTRUCTURE.  PERHAPS PATRICIA WAS NEVER QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER\r\nTHOUGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nSEPARATING PATRICIA FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF PATRICIA WILL BECOME ILL-DEFINED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF AN ELONGATED TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS STRONGLY DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL\r\nTAKES PATRICIA THROUGH THE RIDGE AND MAKES IT A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE STRIKING NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS\r\nSEEMS INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.  IT MAY BE THAT THE GFS IDEA FROM\r\nYESTERDAY OF WEST AND WEAK WAS THE RIGHT ONE...AND THIS MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO DEFINE THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE STAKED OUT A COMPROMISE SCENARIO OF A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A BEND TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFS SOLUTIONS. \r\nWITH WEAKER STEERING AHEAD...A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFS MODELS INDICATE CONTINUED WEAKENING...\r\nBOTH THE UKMET AND GFS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD\r\nDIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEN PATRICIA\r\nWILL ENCOUNTER STRONGER WESTERLIES IF IT MOVES AS FAR NORTH AS\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 12.3N 108.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.8N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.7N 111.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.5N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 119.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":11,"Date":"2003-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 22 2003\r\n \r\nPATRICIA CONTINUES TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES AS IT\r\nREMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A\r\nRATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  TAKING THE MEAN OF\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK T AND C.I. NUMBERS...WHICH WE HAVE FOUND TO YIELD\r\nREASONABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...GIVES A WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SUCH AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER IF THE SHEARING PERSISTS...PATRICIA WILL\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT TO 285/8.  THE STEERING APPEARS TO\r\nBE PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SEPARATES PATRICIA\r\nFROM AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA.  THERE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A STRONG\r\nHURRICANE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO LOOKS\r\nDUBIOUS.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH FARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nGFS.  I EXPECT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS ASSUMES THAT PATRICIA WILL NOT BECOME\r\nA STRONG CYCLONE...AND WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE MID- TO\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 12.5N 109.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N 110.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N 111.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.9N 112.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.8N 113.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n  \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":12,"Date":"2003-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2003\r\n\r\nPATRICIA REMAINS SHEARED THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL-CENTER\r\nEXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER....WHICH HAS\r\nDECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  NEW\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N128W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 14N116W. \r\nIR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT\r\nPATRICIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE COMBINATION\r\nOF EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS\r\nSEVERAL POSSIBLE FORECAST SCENARIOS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nSPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR PATRICIA TO\r\nRECURVE BACK TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST AS A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY LBAR AND BAMD.  THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO\r\nCONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND IT IS SUPPORTED BY THE BAMM AND\r\nBAMS.  THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...FOLLWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. \r\nSINCE PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY POORLY-ORGANIZED AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSHOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND\r\nBETWEEN THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.  IT CALLS FOR A\r\nBEND TO THE NORTHWEST IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT PATRICIA WILL BE\r\nAFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 48\r\nHR.  THE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR COULD\r\nTEMPORARILY DECREASE IN ABOUT 24 HR...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS\r\nLOW AND IT WILL NOT BE REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HR...A\r\nWEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 13.1N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.8N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.6N 111.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.6N 112.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.7N 113.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":13,"Date":"2003-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2003\r\n \r\nPATRICIA REMAINS SHEARED THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL-CENTER\r\nEXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  COARSE\r\nRESOLUTION DATA FROM AN ADEOS SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 5Z SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT PATRICIA MAY HAVE ALREADY WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...BUT I\r\nWILL HOLD THE INTENSITY UP AT 40 KT FOR NOW...CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nCURRENT DVORAK T/CI AVERAGE...IN HOPES THAT THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nWILL CONFIRM THE WEAKENING.  \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO BE MORE\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE\r\nON PATRICIA ALL ALONG.  THE GFDL STILL CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nAND A NORTHWARD TURN...AND IS JOINED IN THIS TRACK SCENARIO BY THE\r\nNOGAPS.  WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING AND A\r\nBEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...I DO NOT THINK THAT THE GFDL\r\nSOLUTION IS A VIABLE ONE.  ANY REDUCTION IN SHEAR SHOULD BE BRIEF\r\nBEFORE THE WESTERLIES BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A MODEST TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A HALTING OF THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING TREND...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT PATRICIA WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND TAKE A PATH TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 13.3N 111.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.8N 112.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.9N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.7N 114.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":14,"Date":"2003-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2003\r\n \r\nPATRICIA IS NOT GENERATING MUCH CONVECTION...BUT WHAT THERE IS IS A\r\nLITTLE CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THERE WAS NO MORNING\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS OVER PATRICIA.  DVORAK T/CI AVERAGES ARE AT 35\r\nKT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nTOPS ARE BEING BLOWN OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...AND UW/CIMSS\r\nIS ANALYZING NEARLY 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LIES IN THE\r\nPATH OF PATRICIA...AND SO THE CYCLONE COULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN A DAY OR SO.  THE GFDL STILL SEEMS TO BE\r\nOVERDOING IT...BUT I CAN SEE SOME REINTENSIFICATION OCCURRING\r\nBEFORE PATRICIA MOVES MORE NORTHWARD AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING\r\nWESTERLIES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nWITH SHEAR CONTINUING TO BE SUCH A BIG PLAYER...THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nDEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY.  PATRICIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A NARROW\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SEPARATES THE CYCLONE FROM A MID-LEVEL LOW\r\nNEAR 20N/125W.  THE GFS KEEPS PATRICIA WEAK AND LARGELY ISOLATED\r\nFROM THIS LOW ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  INTERESTINGLY...THE\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL ALL TAKE PATRICIA IMMEDIATELY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS RIDGE.  GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND INITIAL MOTION...275/11...I DO NOT\r\nBELIEVE ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD TURNING WILL OCCUR UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE STRENGTHENS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 13.3N 112.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 13.6N 113.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.4N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":15,"Date":"2003-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2003\r\n\r\nPATRICIA IS STILL NOT GENERATING MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL-ORGANIZED.  THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS\r\nINTERMITTENTLY EXPOSED AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE MAY NO LONGER BE OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER WE\r\nWILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM TO GET ANOTHER\r\nESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.  IN SPITE OF ITS CURRENT WEAKENED\r\nSTATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PATRICIA COULD SOON ENTER\r\nAN AREA OF WEAKER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS SOME RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...BEFORE MUCH STRONGER SHEAR TAKES ITS TOLL.\r\n\r\nTHE NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF PATRICIA MAY BE WEAKENING\r\nFURTHER...RESULTING IN A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT 290/9.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE FUTURE\r\nTRACK IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nIF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENS SIGNIFICANTLY...IT SHOULD MOVE\r\nMUCH MORE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO\r\nITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER A RATHER WEAK CYCLONE WOULD MOVE\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW TRADE WIND FLOW. \r\nTHE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN CALLING FOR A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK...SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\nTHIS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM FORECAST TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 13.8N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.3N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 115.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":16,"Date":"2003-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PATRICIA HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C NOW OBSCURING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY POORLY\r\nORGANIZED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND\r\n30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PATRICIA WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nFORMING NEAR PATRICIA AND SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASING THE SHEAR...AND\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP MAY BE TIED TO THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 24N124W WITH BROAD TROUGHING COVERING THE\r\nAREA NORTH OF 18N EAST OF 140W TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL EVOLVE INTO AN EAST-WEST\r\nTROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY 28N DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IR IMAGERY\r\nAND MODEL ANALYSES SHOW WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF PATRICIA...\r\nAND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nNOW CALLS FOR PATRICIA TO TURN NORTHWARD...AND ALL BUT THE UKMET\r\nSHOW A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AFTER 48-72 HR.  THE UKMET FORECASTS\r\nPATRICIA TO TURN WESTWARD INSTEAD.  FULL RECURVATURE STILL APPEARS\r\nUNLIKELY...AS A COMBINATION OF COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nFORECAST STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE PATRICIA TO WEAKEN AS IT TRIES\r\nTO RECURVE.  THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nBULK OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HR...THEN CALL FOR A SLOWER AND MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 72 HR UNDER THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.  INDEED...THE\r\nGFS AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IT TO INCREASE IN AS SOON AS 12\r\nHR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL USE THE PREMISE THAT IT WILL TAKE\r\nLONGER THAN THAT FOR CONDITIONS TO WORSEN...AND THUS CALL FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR 36 HR.  PATRICIA IS FORECAST TO CROSS\r\nINTO SUB-26C SSTS BY 72 HR WHILE MOVING INTO INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT PATRICIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF NO STRENGTHENING OCCURS DURING THE FIRST\r\n36 HR.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 14.0N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.7N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 15.9N 114.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.9N 115.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.9N 115.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":17,"Date":"2003-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003\r\n \r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF\r\nPATRICIA.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS EMBEDDED SOMEWHERE IN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...BUT THE LAST TWO MICROWAVE PASSES ONLY PARTIALLY\r\nCAUGHT THE CYCLONE.  CERTAINLY PATRICIA IS HEALTHIER THAN IT WAS 24\r\nHOURS AGO...WITH OUTFLOW EVIDENT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT FOR THE\r\nFIRST TIME IN DAYS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED\r\nSINCE 6Z...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/4...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  PATRICIA APPEARS TO BE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA WITH A BROAD BAND OF WESTERLIES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEST OR\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH OF ABOUT 17N.  THE MAJOR TRACK MODELS\r\nTAKE PATRICIA SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE TRACK WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM\r\nCAN MAINTAIN AS PATRICIA GETS BACK INTO A STRONG WESTERLY UPPER\r\nFLOW.  THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND EVEN THE GFS NOW TURN THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE UKMET NOW\r\nBENDS THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST AND LOSES THE CYCLONE AFTER 3\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT PATRICIA IS IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nPATTERN...SOME REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES\r\nNOT SHOW MUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH.  THIS IS PROBABLY BECAUSE IT\r\nSEES TOO MUCH SHEAR NEAR THE CYCLONE...BUT IT IS LIKELY LOOKING\r\nOVER TOO LARGE AN AREA AND CANNOT SEE THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS\r\nRIGHT OVER THE CYCLONE.  WITHIN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE WESTERLIES\r\nALONG WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 14.5N 113.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.2N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.2N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.4N 114.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":18,"Date":"2003-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003\r\n \r\nSEVERAL HOURS OF VISIBLE IMAGERY HAVE NOT HELPED TO LOCATE THE\r\nCENTER OF PATRICIA.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1340Z SUGGESTED THAT\r\nPREVIOUS POSITIONS WERE PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO FAR NORTH.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE BROAD AND PERHAPS ELONGATED NORTH/SOUTH. \r\nCONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE OR NO ORGANIZATION...EVEN THOUGH PATRICIA\r\nIS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE THE QUIKSCAT SHOWED A FEW 40 KT\r\nVECTORS I WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY WINDS AT 40 KT...EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nVECTORS MAY HAVE BEEN CONTAMINATED.\r\n\r\nMY GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. PATRICIA APPEARS TO BE\r\nROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nFROM THE MEXICAN COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A BROAD BAND OF\r\nWESTERLIES BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT A WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS NORTH OF\r\nABOUT 17N. THE MAJOR TRACK MODELS TAKE PATRICIA SLOWLY NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT PATRICIA WILL DISSIPATE OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH PATRICIA DOES NOT APPEAR WELL\r\nORGANIZED NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A DIURNAL BOOST\r\nTONIGHT UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW BEFORE THE SHEAR BEGINS TO\r\nINCREASE. SHOULD THIS NOT OCCUR...PATRICIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER\r\nTHAN INDICATED BELOW.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 14.5N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.3N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.3N 113.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":19,"Date":"2003-10-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2003\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/04 IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  BY AROUND DAY 3...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nWEAKENING SYSTEM BEING STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW AND TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.  ONLY THE NOGAPS DIFFERS MUCH WITH A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION AND IT FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  IF IT WERE NOT FOR A RECENT BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSUMED CENTER...IT WOULD BE TEMPTING\r\nTO DECLARE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED.  HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE STILL AT 35 KNOTS AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35\r\nKNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE IS A 24-HOUR\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE AT 30 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 14.7N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.3N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.4N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N 114.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 114.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":20,"Date":"2003-10-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003\r\n\r\nPATRICIA HAS A VERY POOR SATELLITE APPEARANCE THIS MORNING...AS MOST\r\nOF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.  EVEN WITH THE HELP OF\r\nRECENT TRMM...SSM/I...AND QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS VERY HARD TO FIND.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON\r\nQUIKSCAT AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  THE TRMM\r\nAND SSM/I...ALONG WITH SAB AND AFWA...SUGGEST THAT A NEW CENTER\r\nCOULD BE FORMING ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FADING EVEN THERE THIS APPEARS\r\nRATHER DUBIOUS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THIS MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS...BUT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP DURING\r\nTHE DIURNAL MAXIMUM THE CYCLONE WILL STAY A TROPICAL STORM FOR ONE\r\nMORE ADVISORY CYCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 340/4.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N120W...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR 13N96W.  IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER PATRICIA SLOWLY NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72.  SEVERAL MODELS\r\nSTILL CALL FOR RECURVATURE BEYOND THAT TIME...WHICH NOW APPEARS\r\nVERY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STATE OF THE STORM.  THE MOST LIKELY\r\nSCENARIO IS FOR PATRICIA TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE MAY VERY WELL DISSIPATE BEFORE THAT CAN OCCUR.  GIVEN\r\nALL THE UNCERTAINIES... ESPECIALLY IN THE INITIAL LOCATION...THIS\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS SLOW NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nPATRICIA LOOKS TOO POORLY ORGANIZED TO STRENGTHEN AT THIS TIME...AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO ENCOUNTER UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASING THE FARTHER NORTH IT GETS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST NOW CALLS FOR NO STRENGTHENING FOR 36 HR AS PATRICIA\r\nENCOUNTERS LIGHT-MODERATE SHEAR...FOLLWED BY WEAKENING AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR.  PATRICIA COULD WELL DISSIPATE FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 15.1N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 15.8N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.9N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.6N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.1N 114.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patricia","Adv":21,"Date":"2003-10-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003\r\n \r\nPATRICIA REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. NIGHTTIME\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAD COMPLETELY DISSIPATED NEAR THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK DURING\r\nTHE PAST 1.5 HOURS. A 12Z SOUTHWEST WIND AT 14 KT AND 1010.0 MB\r\nPRESSURE REPORTED BY SHIP ELVF6 LOCATED ABOUT 125 NMI SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE ALLEGED SATELLITE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nMAY BE DEVELOPING ABOUT 120 NMI FARTHER TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...A\r\nMORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nPAST POSITIONS...AND ALSO KEEPING THE CENTER TUCKED IN CLOSER TO\r\nTHE RECENT BURST OF STRONGER CONVECTION FARTHER EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...\r\nPATRICIA HAS BEEN TRYING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO. HOWEVER...MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN\r\nFORCING/SHEARING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD...RESULTING IN A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND AN EAST-WEST ELONGATION IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY\r\nDIVERGENT AND THE TRACK PLOTS LOOK MORE LIKE A 'FOUNTAIN PATTERN'.\r\nTHE GFDN IS THE EASTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES PATRICIA NORTHEASTWARD\r\n...WHILE THE GFS IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD. THE OTHER MODELS ARE EVENLY SPREAD OUT SOMEWHERE IN\r\nBETWEEN. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN SLOW AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE APPARENT EAST-WEST ELONGATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND\r\nTHE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISPLACED THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nABOUT 150 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD PREVENT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A\r\nFEW BRIEF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT\r\nNIGHT...NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO KEEP PATRICIA BARELY ALIVE AS\r\nA DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR...STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR...AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY CAUSE IT TO\r\nDISSIPATE...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 15.6N 113.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.4N 114.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.1N 114.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.6N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.3N 114.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 115.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patricia","Adv":22,"Date":"2003-10-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A 25/1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\n...INDICATES PATRICIA IS STILL A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ENE-WSW AND THE CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS DISPLACED WELL AWAY FROM THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED\r\nCENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO COME\r\nDOWN WITH TAFB REPORTING AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5/25 KT...\r\nWHILE SAB AND AFWA COULD NOT DETERMINE AN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 25-KT\r\nWINDS AND A FEW 35-40 KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED SPEEDS. THEREFORE... A\r\nCOMPROMISE IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY AND 30 KT IS MAINTAINED...\r\nMAINLY IN BRIEF SQUALLS IN THE CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS BROAD AND CONTAINS SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS WITHIN IT...\r\nTHE PRIMARY SWIRL THAT HAS MAINTAINED ANY CONTINUITY AND SOME\r\nCONVECTION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THE ONE FARTHEST EAST. IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER COULD DEVELOP A LITTLE MORE TO THE\r\nWEST WITHIN THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL WIND ENVELOPE...BUT I AM STAYING\r\nWITH THE ONE FARTHEST EAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY\r\nKEEPING THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TOWARD THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. THE NEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS DIVERGENT THAN\r\nIN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE UKMET...GFDN...AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE\r\nALL MADE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SHIFT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACKS...WHILE THE GFS HAS MADE A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT\r\nNEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SINCE PATRICIA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nTHE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...COMBINED WITH WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nAND THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SHOULD\r\nPREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. INTERMITTENT\r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY KEEP THE WINDS BARELY AT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW...AND\r\nEVENTUAL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS\r\nPATRICIA ONGOING A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\n...WHICH DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 48 AND 24 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 16.2N 114.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 16.9N 114.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N 114.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.7N 115.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patricia","Adv":23,"Date":"2003-10-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2003\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD ELONGATED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION AND\r\nA COUPLE OF SMALL DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CELLS.  ALL AGENCIES\r\nCLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS \"TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY\".  INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS SHOW A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATION IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS UNDER\r\nRATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A CENTER LOCATION NEAR THE EAST END\r\nOF THE ELONGATED LOW.  THIS IS TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NOGAPS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL TO SHOW A\r\nSIGNIFICANT MOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THE DEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A VERY SLOW MOSTLY NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 16.2N 114.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 16.6N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-07-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST HAS SHOWN\r\nINCREASING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB.  THUS...\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nONE WITH 25 KT WINDS.  WHILE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE...THE CENTER WAS VERY POORLY DEFINED ON THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nFLIGHT THIS MORNING...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF THE FLIGHT\r\nSCHEDULED FOR 0000Z FINDS THE SAME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES MOVING EASTWARD.\r\nALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH...WITH THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE BEING HOW\r\nFAST IT MOVES AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nCALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 24 HR AND\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AFTER 36 HR...BRUSHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.\r\nWHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN NORTH CAROLINA...\r\nSEVERAL MODELS RECURVE THE CYCLONE SHARPLY ENOUGH TO KEEP THE\r\nCENTER OFFSHORE.\r\n \r\nTHIS LARGE AND POORLY DEFINED SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE TIME TO\r\nCONSOLIDATE EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST.  WHAT\r\nINTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE CLEARS THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST IS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE LARGE SCALE MODELS DISAGREE ON\r\nWHETHER IT WILL DISSIPATE OR STRENGTHEN DURING INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND KEEP A STEADY 40 KT UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO BE\r\nISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN A LATER\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 30.6N  78.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 31.5N  79.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.9N  79.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 34.0N  78.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 35.2N  76.6W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 37.5N  73.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 40.0N  69.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 46.0N  57.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO\r\nFIND A CENTER AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE POSSIBLE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS NORTH OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SURFACE\r\nDATA...OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE AND CLOUD MOTION VECTORS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE WITH A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS. BECAUSE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE...ONLY A SLOW\r\nSTRENGHTENING...IF ANY...IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF\r\nTHE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS 340/7. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK SO THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nWITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH \r\nMOVE THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY OVER OR NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL LIKELY\r\nFORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SUGGEST KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nNOTE: A QUIKSCAT JUST PASSED OVER THE DEPRESSION AND CONFIRMS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 20-25 KT WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 31.4N  78.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.4N  79.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 33.5N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 34.5N  77.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 36.0N  75.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  69.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 44.0N  62.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 46.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION DOES NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES OR COASTAL RADARS.  LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON THE NIGHT CHANNEL\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED CENTER IS NORTH OF\r\nTHE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH\r\nAXIS.  THERE IS MODEST UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPART OF THE DEPRESSION'S CIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HINDER\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NEAR\r\nTHE COAST...AS DOES THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...340/6...REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO\r\nTHE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SO STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NEAR THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUALLY-\r\nAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SUGGEST KEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 32.1N  79.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 33.0N  79.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 34.0N  78.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 34.8N  77.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 35.7N  75.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 39.5N  69.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 44.5N  60.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED CENTER\r\nWITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT DID FIX A CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSER\r\nTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS COULD INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nMAY BE STARTING TO ORGANIZE A BIT...OR THEY COULD HAVE FIXED A\r\nTRANSIENT FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL CENTER POSITION IS RELOCATED A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT BASED ON THE OVERALL\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE I AM NOT GOING ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FIX\r\nLOCATION.  THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 33 AND 36\r\nKT...WITH A VISUAL SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 30 KT...AND THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS ARE THE BASIS OF RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30\r\nKT.  THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE WIND TO THE NORTH OR WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nAND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE DEPRESSION'S\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HINDER SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE HEADED\r\nTOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND AS THE FLOW TRANSITIONS THE DEPRESSION MAY\r\nFIND A BRIEFLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN IN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR 50 KT IN 36\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND HAS THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST IN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RAGGED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHARD TO DETERMINE...BUT APPEARS TO BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SO\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nRATHER SLOWLY AND REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS\r\nTHROUGH 36-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF THE DEPRESSION IS IN FACT\r\nREORGANIZING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST IS LIKELY TO\r\nBE TOO FAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 31.9N  79.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 33.0N  78.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 34.1N  77.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 35.1N  76.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  74.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 46.0N  56.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON FOUND 41 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT A FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL OF 1000 FT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO ABOUT 33 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE\r\nCREW ALSO ESTIMATED THE SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS TO BE 35 KT. ON\r\nTHIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT\r\n18Z. FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING\r\nLITTLE AND LIES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE\r\nARE OTHER SIGNS THAT THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE IS IMPROVING...WITH A\r\nCIRCULATION THAT APPEARS TO BE LESS ELONGATED THAN IT WAS EARLIER\r\nIN THE DAY...MULTIPLE SWIRLS NOTWITHSTANDING...AND THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF A LITTLE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS\r\nLATTER TREND IS LIKELY THE PRECURSOR TO A SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS ALEX COMES UNDERNEATH\r\nSOME ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ARRIVE. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...\r\nBRINGING ALEX TO NEAR 60 KT IN 36 HOURS.  AS THE UPPER FLOW\r\nCHANGES...ALEX WILL LIKELY BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRIC IN ITS\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN AND WIND FIELD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON...BUT THE\r\nMODELS WILL PROBABLY UNDERESTIMATE THE DRAG OF THE CURRENT\r\nCONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY.  DUE TO THE STATIONARY MOTION TODAY...THERE\r\nIS MORE TIME FOR ALEX TO BE CAUGHT UP IN THE APPROACHING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TOWARD THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  NEVERTHELESS...THE CENTER IS\r\nSTILL EXPECTED TO COME VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 31.7N  79.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 32.4N  78.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 33.5N  77.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 34.7N  75.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 36.5N  72.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 41.0N  64.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 46.0N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE. THE MID-LEVEL CORE REGION...HOWEVER...HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA...BUT THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\nTHIS HAS PREVENTED THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN\r\nRADAR DATA FROM ALIGNING WITH ANY OF THE MANY LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS THAT\r\nCONTINUE TO POP OUT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT BASED ON 45-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING\r\nEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA HAS REMAINED INTACT. HOWEVER...THERE ARE\r\nSOME INDICATIONS THAT THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ALEX TO MAKE A\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT ON MONDAY BEFORE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY DIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE ALEX QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS. THE\r\nVAST MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MOVES ALEX INLAND OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF ALEX MAY STILL GET\r\nUNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE COAST IN 24-36 HOURS BEFORE IT GETS\r\nCAUGHT UP BY THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND IS CARRIED OUT TO SEA.\r\nGIVEN THE STATIONARY MOTION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS SLOWED...BUT OTHER THAN THAT NO\r\nOTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nGUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING THE FORWARD MOTION AND THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS MAY BE DECREASING AS INDICATED BY CIRRUS\r\nCLOUDS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT SLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nSOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT\r\nAS ALEX BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND PASSES OVER THE GULFSTREAM\r\nUNDER DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. BY 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND ESSENTIALLY CAP THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 31.5N  79.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 32.2N  78.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 33.1N  77.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 34.7N  74.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 36.7N  71.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 42.0N  61.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 48.5N  49.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n \r\nON THE LAST RECON FIX AT 0510 UTC...THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 1005 MB\r\nBUT THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL...850 MB...WINDS WERE 46 KT OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  TAKING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FROM THIS LEVEL\r\nTO THE SURFACE STILL GIVES 35 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.\r\nSUBSEQUENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DATA BUOYS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE MORE.  WSR-88D DOPPLER\r\nRADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED BUT THE CENTER IS STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF\r\nMOST INTENSE CONVECTION.  WE ARE WAITING FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT\r\nMISSION TO SEE IF THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH\r\nAS THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD BE ENDING...AND THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 24 HOUR WINDOW BEFORE\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING UP TO 24 HOURS...AND THE\r\nFORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRECON...SATELLITE...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST LITTLE MOTION.  ALEX IS\r\nSTILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW IS WEAK TO NON-EXISTENT.  HOWEVER....AN APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IS SOON EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE ALEX\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE \r\nPREVIOUS ONE...KEEPS THE STORM OFFSHORE THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST\r\nDICTATES THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES BE MAINTAINED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 31.4N  79.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.2N  79.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.4N  77.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 35.3N  74.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 37.5N  70.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 49.0N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-02 12:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY OF ALEX.  RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF ALEX\r\nIS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 992 MB AND THE PEAK 850 MB\r\nWINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 62 KT.  THIS IS EQUIVALENT TO ROUGHLY 50 KT\r\nAT THE SURFACE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS ALEX TO JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY\r\nTHERE...HOWEVER...FOR ALEX TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE THAN SHOWN\r\nBELOW AND BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nONLY THE 12-HOUR POSITION FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1200Z 31.3N  79.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.2N  78.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.4N  77.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 35.3N  74.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 37.5N  70.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 49.0N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF ALEX IS EVOLVING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN\r\nCHANGES.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE IS NOW EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WITH A WELL-DEVELOPED BAND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE\r\nLAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NO\r\nLONGER DROPPING...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND FROM THIS MORNING\r\nHAS SLOWED...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  ALEX IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER\r\nTHE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...WITH A RELATIVLY DEEP\r\nRESERVOIR OF 26C OR WARMER WATER.   THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE\r\nPROHIBITIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO ALEX COULD REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS.  AFTER 36-48 HOURS...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT ALEX WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nALEX IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO MOVE IN A MORE CONSISTENT MANNER...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/4.  ONLY A WEAK RIDGE\r\nREMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND ALEX IS ABOUT TO BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL VERY LITTLE WIND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF\r\nALEX...AND SO WITH THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THIS\r\nMORNING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF SOUTH SANTEE RIVER IS\r\nBEING DISCONTINUED.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 31.5N  78.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 32.1N  78.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 33.8N  76.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 35.8N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 38.0N  69.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 44.0N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 51.0N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PASS INTO ALEX AT 1704Z GAVE A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND\r\nRELEASED TWO DROPSONDES THAT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 45 AND 46\r\nKT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A 20 MILE-WIDE\r\nCIRCULAR EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SINCE THAT TIME...THE\r\nQUALITY OF THE RADAR DEPICTION HAS VARIED...WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL\r\nOCCASIONALLY PRESENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS\r\nCOME UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN\r\nTODAY THAT HAS ENHANCED THE CYCLONE'S OUTFLOW.  ALEX SHOULD BE\r\nMOVING ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE GULF STREAM.  SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  BOTH THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING ALEX TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR AND COLDER WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  BY 72 HOURS...ALEX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/5...LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS ALSO LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE TAKING ALEX OVER OR VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER\r\nBANKS.  APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLIES SHOULD SOON TURN\r\nALEX ON A MORE NORTHEASTLY TRACK ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COASTLINE.  IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND\r\nRADII FORECASTS ARE PRECISELY CORRECT...THEN HURRICANE CONDITIONS\r\nWILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...ONLY VERY SMALL DEVIATIONS FROM\r\nTHESE FORECASTS COULD RESULT IN HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEING\r\nEXPERIENCED ON LAND.  CONSEQUENTLY...IT IS APPROPRIATE TO ISSUE A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 32.1N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 33.1N  77.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 34.8N  75.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 36.7N  72.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 39.0N  67.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 44.0N  54.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n \r\nDOPPLER RADAR DATA AND RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE ALEX HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE. A 03/119Z RECON REPORT ALSO CAME\r\nIN WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 987 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTED AT\r\nTHE 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 69 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...\r\nWHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SOME 64+ KT WINDS NOTED IN DOPPLER VELOCITY\r\nDATA BEFORE THE DATA BECAME RANGE OBSCURED. THE 69-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND WOULD EQUATE TO ABOUT 56 KT SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE 987 MB\r\nPRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME HURRICANES. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE SMALL\r\nEYE...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS EXIST IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS OCCURRING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/08. ALEX HAS MADE A SLIGHT TURN TO RIGHT\r\n...BUT IT IS ESSENTIALLY ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS\r\nSOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG SEVERAL OF THE NHC MODELS. THE 03/00Z\r\nINTERPOLATED MODEL TRACKS FROM THE CURRENT POSITION KEEP ALEX WELL\r\nOFFSHORE THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE THE 02/18Z GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nMODEL RUNS MOVE ALEX INLAND NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA IN\r\nABOUT 18 HOURS. THE 03/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A NORTHERLY\r\n40-45 KT WIND MAXIMUM ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD DIG A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD BEFORE IT PUSHES\r\nEASTWARD. THIS WOULD CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO BACK\r\nSLIGHTLY TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND HELP TO PULL\r\nALEX A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD LIKE THE 18Z GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE\r\nSUGGESTING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND SOUTH OF THE 18Z NOGAPS AND GFS SOLUTIONS...BUT\r\nBRINGS ALEX VERY CLOSE TO THE OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.\r\n\r\nALEX ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 TO PROBABLY NO MORE THAN 24 HOURS LEFT TO\r\nINTENSIFY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nINCREASE AFTER THAT. BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AHEAD UNTIL\r\nTHAT TIME...SO ALEX STILL HAS AN EXCELLENT CHANCE TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE...AND IT COULD PEAK AROUND 70 KT BETWEEN FORECAST TIMES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 32.8N  77.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 34.1N  76.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 35.7N  74.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 37.4N  70.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 39.9N  64.6W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 43.5N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION EARLIER THIS MORNING\r\nFOUND 81 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 850 MB...ALONG WITH A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE WILMINGTON AND\r\nNEWPORT WSR-88D RADARS HAVE SHOWN 85 KT WINDS AT ABOUT 8000-9000\r\nFT.  BASED ON THIS...ALEX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 70 KT HURRICANE. \r\nTHE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYEWALL IN CONSTANT FLUX...OCCASIONALLY\r\nFULLY CLOSED AND OCCASIONALLY OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY DUE TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ALEX IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND ALL GUIDANCE SAYS\r\nTHIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE. \r\nHOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING A MORE EASTERLY\r\nMOTION AFTER 24 HR THAN SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WITH SOME\r\nSERIOUS DISAGREEMENT IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS THUS\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO SLOWER...A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS\r\nAND GFDL.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ALEX\r\nOFFHSORE...ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE\r\nCENTER NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.  SUCH A\r\nLEFT JOG COULD OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST\r\nOF ALEX AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.\r\n\r\nALEX IS CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nRESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AND START TO SHEAR\r\nALEX.  THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR MORE...WHICH IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING\r\nSHEAR...COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE START OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  ALEX IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR AND BE ABSORBED BY\r\nANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HR.  ALEX COULD PEAK AT 80 KT OR SO\r\nIN BETWEEN FORECAST TIMES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 33.5N  76.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 34.6N  75.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 36.3N  72.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 37.8N  68.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 39.4N  63.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 44.0N  50.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nTHE PRESENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT...CATEGORY TWO. THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED A VERY SMALL FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nMAXIMUM OF 105 KT AT 1135Z...BUT MORE RECENT PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS HAVE BEEN CLOSER TO 90 KT. THE 105 KT OBSERVATION WAS ALSO IN\r\nAN OPEN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL AND SO THE NORMAL 90 PERCENT\r\nADJUSTMENT MAY NOT QUITE APPLY. TWO EYEWALL DROPSONDES REPORTED\r\nSURFACE WINDS OF 77 AND 87 KT.  THERE STILL APPEAR TO BE NO\r\nHURRICANE FORCE SURFACE WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL TIME FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING...BUT COOLER\r\nWATERS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOW SPLIT ON WHETHER ALEX WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OR MAINTAIN A DISTINCT CIRCULATION BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE CANADIAN MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/13...FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT BASICALLY\r\nON TRACK.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED\r\nNORTHEASTERLY TRACK THAT WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF ALEX JUST OFFSHORE\r\nTHE OUTER BANKS.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED SOUTHWARD IN ACCORD WITH THE MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 34.7N  75.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 35.9N  73.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 37.4N  70.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 38.5N  66.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 39.5N  61.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 44.5N  48.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED OR DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX PASSED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE\r\nHATTERAS NEAR 17Z THIS AFTERNOON...AND BROUGHT SUSTAINED CATEGORY\r\nONE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.  AT\r\nTHE TIME OF CLOSEST APPROACH...ALEX WAS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE\r\nWITH WINDS OF 85 KT...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LOCATED OFFSHORE\r\nON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CIRCULATION.   ALEX IS NOW MOVING OUT TO SEA\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON KEEPING ALEX AS AN\r\nIDENTIFIABLE SYSTEM ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCARRIES THE SYSTEM THROUGH FIVE DAYS FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECONNAISSANCE IN THE SYSTEM SINCE 17Z...BUT\r\nTHE LAST TWO PRESSURE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION FROM THIS MORNING WAS ENDING.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 85 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THERE IS PRESENTLY LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. \r\nSSTS UNDER ALEX WILL REMAIN REASONABLY WARM FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO...AND SO ONLY A SLOW DECAY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.  ALEX\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WHEN IT MOVES OVER SUB 20C\r\nWATERS AFTER 48 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 35.8N  74.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 36.8N  72.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 38.0N  68.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 39.4N  64.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 41.5N  59.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 46.0N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 44.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 47.0N  12.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/15.  THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT MOVING ALEX EAST-NORTHEAST TO\r\nEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TO THE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA RECENT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION REPORTED 973 MB AND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WIND OF 87 KNOTS ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL MAXIMUM 1-MIN WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON\r\nTHIS DATA.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ALEX WILL ENCOUNTER 21 DEG\r\nSSTS IN 48 HOURS ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND THIS IS\r\nTHE BASIS FOR FORECASTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE GFS AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON TO HURRICANE FORCE THROUGH 120\r\nHOURS WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 36.5N  72.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 37.4N  70.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 38.6N  66.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 40.7N  61.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 43.3N  54.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 45.0N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 44.0N  20.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 48.0N  10.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004\r\n\r\nLAST RECON FIX...AT 0505Z...HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE ABOUT THE SAME AS\r\nSEVERAL HOURS EARLIER.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT ALEX IS HOLDING ITS OWN.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE MOVING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS...AND WEAKENING.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nALEX INTERACTING WITH A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM WHICH...ALONG WITH THE COLD WATERS...IS THE BASIS FOR THE\r\nPREDICTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHE SYSTEM MAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY OUT TO 5 DAYS...BUT THE CYCLONE\r\nMAY VERY WELL HAVE MERGED WITH A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW OVER THE\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 060/16.  ALEX IS EMBEDDED IN A\r\nWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT THAT WILL BE INCREASING IN VELOCITY AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE REACHES HIGHER LATITUDES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 37.1N  71.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 38.2N  68.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 39.8N  63.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 42.0N  58.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 44.5N  50.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 45.0N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 45.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 48.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004\r\n \r\nALEX IS STILL A HEALTHY CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...WITH GOOD\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND A RAGGED EYE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN RINGS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 77 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND RECENT 3-HOURLY OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ALSO SUPPORT 77 KT. \r\nAS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED ONLY TO 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AT AN ESTIMATED 065/17.  STEERING BY A STRONG\r\nWESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT SHOULD FORCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE\r\nEAST.  ALEX IS CURRENTLY OVER SST NEAR 26C...BUT IN A DAY OR TWO\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...ABOUT 20 C..AS THE\r\nHURRICANE ALSO BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE LATITUDE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM.  THEREFORE...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST AT 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 37.7N  69.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 38.8N  65.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 40.6N  60.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 43.1N  53.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 45.2N  44.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 45.0N  26.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 46.5N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 50.5N   6.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004\r\n \r\nALEX NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A WIDE SYMMETRIC RING OF\r\nCONVECTION AND WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 5.0 DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH\r\nWALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26C AND 27C.  SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  THEREAFTER...IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS...BUT IT MAY REMAIN\r\nNEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 075/16...A MORE EASTERLY\r\nCOMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nGRADUAL ACCELERATION WITHIN A STRONG WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TO THE\r\nEAST.  MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE\r\nLATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME\r\nABSORBED A DAY OR TWO LATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 37.9N  67.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 39.0N  63.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 42.0N  56.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 44.6N  47.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 45.4N  37.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004\r\n \r\nALEX HAS BECOME ONE FOR THE RECORD BOOKS TONIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nMAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE DIRECTLY IN THE\r\nCENTER OF A CDO PATTERN WITH WELL-ESTABLISHED CIRCULAR OUTFLOW IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T5.5...OR 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA...A DATA-T\r\nNUMBER OF T6.0...OR 115 KT FROM TAFB...A RAW ODT VALUE OF T5.7...OR\r\n108 KT AT 05/0015Z...AND A 3-HR AODT AVERAGE OF T5.6...OR 105 KT.\r\nTHE AVERAGE OF ALL THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 106 KT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105 KT. THIS MAKES ALEX THE STRONGEST\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE ON RECORD TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 38N LATITUDE...WITH\r\nHURRICANE ELLEN IN 1973 COMING IN SECOND AT 100 KT. THOSE ARE THE\r\nONLY TWO HURRICANES ON RECORD TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT\r\nSUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD NOT BE SURPRISING GIVEN\r\nTHAT SSTS ARE RUNNING MORE THAN 2C ABOVE AVERAGE IN THAT AREA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/22. ALEX IS STARTING TO ACCLERATE\r\nAND A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A CONTINUED INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE IS LESS THAN A 30 NMI\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALONG THE\r\nENTIRE TRACK...WHICH IS A TREMENDOUS TRIBUTE TO THE HARD WORK THAT\r\nMANY COMPUTER MODELERS HAVE PUT IN OVER THE YEARS.\r\n \r\nALEX MAY HAVE PEAKED...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION COULD\r\nSTILL OCCUR IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER A\r\nWARM POOL IN THE GULFSTREAM BETWEEN 60-65W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...\r\nONCE ALEX CROSSES NORTH OF 42N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR\r\nWHICH WILL HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 38.9N  64.8W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 40.7N  60.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 43.8N  51.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 45.8N  41.1W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 47.1N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2004\r\n \r\nALEX REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -65C TO -75C.  INDEED...THE CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE COOLED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 105 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nFAIR IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 065/25.  ALEX IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE AN ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO OUT TO 48-72\r\nHR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD TOP COOLING CURRENTLY OCCURRING IS LIKELY TO BE THE LAST\r\nGASP FOR ALEX.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM\r\nINTO MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 12-18\r\nHOURS WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  ALEX WILL BEGIN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AFTER 24 HR AND COMPLETE IT BY 48 HR. \r\nWHILE DETAILS DIFFER...ALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL ALEX WILL MERGE WITH EITHER ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nOR A COLD FRONT BY 72 HR AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 40.0N  61.5W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 42.0N  56.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 45.0N  46.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 47.0N  36.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 47.0N  26.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 05 2004\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO WARM...BUT DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED AT T5.5 AT 12Z...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT. ALEX SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM INTO MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT\r\n6-12 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. ALEX IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND\r\nHELP INVIGORATE A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n065/30. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nAN ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nUNUSUALLY WELL-CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 41.7N  57.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 44.0N  51.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 46.5N  42.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 47.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 47.0N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF ALEX IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nCONTINUE TO WARM AS ALEX BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS.  LATEST\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/5.5.  USING AN\r\nAVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF\r\nWEAKENING SYSTEMS YIELDS 90 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER 17C WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n065/39. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST.  WHILE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY\r\nWELL-CLUSTERED...THE MODELS APPEAR TO ALREADY BE BEHIND THE CYCLONE\r\nAND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 43.6N  52.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 45.8N  45.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 47.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 47.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND A 05/2210Z\r\nSSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING\r\nTO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0/5.0...AND 4.0/5.5\r\nFROM AFWA. USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS TO ESTIMATE THE\r\nINTENSITY OF WEAKENING SYSTEMS YIELDS ABOUT 75 KT FOR THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A 05/2200Z\r\nPRESSURE REPORT OF 979.3 MB WHEN THE EYE WENT ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER\r\nCANADIAN BUOY 44140.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/39. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED\r\nA EXTRAPOLATION ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND USING THE\r\nSAME SPEED OF 39 KT. THIS IS A TAD BEHIND THE SATELLITE POSITIONS\r\nOBTAINED BY TAFB AND SAB...BUT IT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED BUOY AND SSMI/MICROWAVE POSITIONS. ALEX IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND SLOW SLIGHTLY AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY\r\nINTERACTS WITH AND IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED INTO A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nALEX IS ALREADY OVER 16-17C SSTS WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED AHEAD\r\nOF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE... RAPID\r\nTRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. \r\n\r\nCOORDINATION WITH THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE INDICATES THAT RAPID\r\nVARIATIONS IN HARBOR WATER LEVELS BETWEEN 12 AM AND 3 AM LOCAL TIME\r\nARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA...\r\nBETWEEN CAPE RACE AND CAPE SAINT FRANCIS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE BONAVISTA PENINSULA AND POSSIBLY CONCEPTION BAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 44.9N  47.4W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 46.4N  40.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 47.1N  29.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 47.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 06 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH ALEX HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HR...AND IS\r\nNOW CONFINED TO A FEW CLUSTERS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSIS FROM AFWA SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS\r\nALREADY EXTRATROPICAL...AND IF THIS IS NOT THE CASE NOW IT SHOULD\r\nBE BY LATER TODAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT BASED ON\r\nA COMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAPID\r\nFORWARD MOTION.  ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX WEAKENING OVER COLD WATER\r\nAS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THEN MERGING WITH A BAROLCINIC\r\nLOW OR FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 36 HR.  THIS IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/45.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nALEX SHOULD TURN MORE EASTWARD AND SOMEWHAT SLOW DOWN BEFORE\r\nMERGER...AND THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 46.5N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 47.0N  33.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 47.0N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 06 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALEX IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER COLD WATERS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 40 KNOTS AND IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH\r\nA LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON ALEX. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 47.5N  34.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 48.0N  25.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW  \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND IT IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT\r\nIS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF THE SYSTEM...AN ESPECIALLY FAST MOVING\r\nONE...HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITHOUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE. YOU COULD MAKE THE CASE THAT A SMALL CIRCULATION EXISTS\r\nUSING QUICKSAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ENOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...BANDING FEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS...\r\nSTEERED BY THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nFORCING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE TO NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE\r\nLAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST.     \r\n\r\nPRELIMINARY COORDINATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THE METEOROLOGISTS\r\nFROM THE LESSER ANTILLES TO ISSUE WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY\r\nIF NECESSARY.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 13.2N  54.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.0N  57.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N  60.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  64.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N  67.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N  69.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 25.5N  71.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 30.0N  72.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF\r\nCONVECTION AND RAINBANDS.  IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...AN ESPECIALLY FAST MOVING ONE...HAS A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION WITHOUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. SOMETIMES\r\nFAST MOVING SYSTEMS HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE PRESENTATION BUT LACK\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY RECON DATA IN THE PAST.\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 24\r\nHOUR OR SO. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE NONE\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP THE DEPRESSION...AND THE GFDL WHICH\r\nMADE IT A HURRICANE IN THE 06Z RUN NOW DISSIPATES IT IN THE 12Z\r\nRUN.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS...\r\nSTEERED BY THE WINDS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nFORCING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE LAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 13.6N  56.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N  59.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N  63.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N  68.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 26.5N  71.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  70.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nDIFFICULTY REMAINS IN DETERMINING THE CENTER POSITION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION. MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nLOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN BEEN INDICATING. THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK POSITIONS AND THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS...AND CLOSE TO WHERE\r\nTHE LATEST BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING. AS MENTIONED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...IF THERE IS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\n...THEN IT IS LIKELY A VERY SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE WEAK WINDS BEING REPORTED AT NEARBY BARBADOS. A\r\nRECON FLIGHT WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD GIVE US SOME ANSWERS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON CONSECUTIVE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND SOME 25 TO NEAR 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND\r\nSPEEDS IN A 03/2208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/19...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE\r\nMOVING CLOSER TO 270 DEGREES. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT\r\nAND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AS FAR SOUTH AS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS\r\nSHOULD EFFECTIVELY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND\r\nHISPANIOLA AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nFORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...WHICH BRING THE CYCLONE UP TO 51 KT AND 57 KT IN 48 HOURS\r\n...RESPECTIVELY...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF\r\nTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION...IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOT EXIST.\r\nHOWEVER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER\r\nELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 1000 FEET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 13.6N  58.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N  61.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 15.3N  64.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N  67.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.3N  69.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.0N  70.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  70.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS BECOME MORE\r\nCONCENTRATED NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW PRESSURES OF 1010-1011 MB AND SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THERE IS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO SEE IF THAT IS\r\nTHE CASE.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/22.  THE SYSTEM IS ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE SCALE-MODELS\r\nFORECAST SHOULD WEAKEN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN\r\nPOSSIBLY NORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR A SYSTEM OF THIS STATE\r\nOF DEVELOPMENT...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD\r\nHISPANIOLA...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION INTO THE ATLANTIC AND\r\nTHEN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN BY 120 HR.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF\r\nALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS.  FIRST...THE BAMD...BAMM...AND LBAR CALL FOR\r\nA MORE GRADUAL TURN AND BRING THE SYSTEM FATHER WEST TO THE CENTRAL\r\nBAHAMAS BY 120 HR.  SECOND...THE NHC90 AND NHC98 BOTH CALL FOR A\r\nMUCH MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN BY 120 HR. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A EVENTUAL\r\nNORTHWARD TURN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHIS FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED\r\nON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  AN ALTERANTIVE SCENARIO IS\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM MAY TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST AS A TROPICAL\r\nWAVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  EVEN IF THERE WAS A\r\nBETTER-DEFINED CENTER...THE COMBINATION OF RAPID WESTWARD MOTION AND\r\nSOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS CREATING A SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS\r\nAND TURNS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE STRENGTHENING\r\nINDICATED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  A SECOND PROBLEM IS PASSAGE\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA...WHICH HAS DESTROYED STRONGER CYCLONES THAN THIS\r\nONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL OPTIMISTICALLY ASSUME THAT THE\r\nPASSAGE WILL ONLY TEMPORARILY STOP DEVELOPMENT...WITH THE\r\nALTERNATIVE BEING THAT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE.  FINALLY...\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE AIRCRAFT WILL NOT FIND A\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION...EVEN IF\r\nA CIRCULATION DOES NOT EXIST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CAN STILL\r\nOCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ABOVE\r\n1000 FEET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 13.8N  60.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.6N  63.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.8N  66.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 17.3N  69.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 19.5N  70.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 23.5N  71.5W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 28.0N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 32.0N  69.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 04 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION\r\nFOUND A VERY SHARP WIND SHIFT AND SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTLY WINDS AT\r\n2500 FT...BUT WAS NOT ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A CIRCULATION.  WIND\r\nREPORTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING WERE ALSO MORE\r\nSUGGESTIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE STRUCTURE.  WHILE STRICTLY SPEAKING\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS NOT CURRENTLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WE ARE ELECTING\r\nTO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES THIS MORNING.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST...AND IF THIS OCCURS A CLOSED CIRCULATION COULD\r\nRE-DEVELOP.      \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/22. THE SYSTEM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE SCALE-MODELS FORECAST\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN POSSIBLY\r\nNORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MORE SOPHISTICATED GFDL\r\nAND GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN GENERALLY\r\nTRENDING WESTWARD. THE SIMPLER STEERING GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE BAM\r\nMODELS...KEEP THE SYSTEM ON MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. A\r\nWEAKER OR DISSIPATING SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THIS\r\nLATTER ALTERNATIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT BASICALLY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.  THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND\r\nTHE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  THIS FORECAST PRESUMES...OF COURSE...THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION DOES NOT DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 13.8N  62.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.5N  65.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 15.6N  68.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  71.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  71.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 34.0N  68.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004\r\n \r\nWE GAVE THE DEPRESSION THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT THIS MORNING WHEN\r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULDN'T CLOSE OFF A CENTER. THIS\r\nAFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST AND LESS\r\nCONCENTRATED...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nRE-DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THE LACK OF A CENTER\r\nTHIS MORNING AND THE OBSERVED CONVECTIVE TRENDS SINCE THEN...\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nEARLIER STRENGTHENED THE DEPRESSION AND TOOK IT NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nNORTH...NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM WEST AND DISSIPATES IT.  THE GFS ALSO\r\nNOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE MAJOR THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM\r\nWOULD BE IF IT MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING RAINFALL TO\r\nHISPANIOLA.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION TOMORROW MORNING...IF NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 13.5N  63.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nREMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FOUND A SMALL BUT VERY\r\nTIGHT SURFACE CIRCULATION AND 56 KT 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS.\r\nNORMALLY THIS WOULD EQUATE TO 48 SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE CENTER IS SMALL AND NOT PARTICULARLY WELL ORGANIZED. THE\r\nRAPID SPIN UP IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD EASILY SPINDOWN IF\r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WEAKENS OR DISSIPATES. SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE RECON WINDS AND A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. THERE IS LIMITED MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AVAILABLE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SINCE NONE OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED THE BONNIE CIRCULATION VERY WELL AT 12Z.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE ON TAKING A\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BONNIE. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WEAKEN. BY 48 HOURS...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A SECOND AND\r\nSTRONGER MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nINTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM...AND\r\nTHE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. BONNIE HAS A SMALL\r\nAND TIGHT CIRCULATION...AND WILL BE MOVING INTO A LOWER VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR REGION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY\r\nFAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS\r\nBONNIE TO 83 KT IN 72 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES THE CYCLONE UP\r\nTO 74 KT AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE ARGUMENT AGAINST FORECASTING\r\nANY ROBUST INTENSIFICATION FROM OCCURRING...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...IS THE ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE...\r\nAS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT BONNIE WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE\r\nTHROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 23.2N  88.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 24.3N  90.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 25.3N  90.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 26.5N  90.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 27.4N  89.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 30.0N  86.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 34.0N  80.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN 8 MILE WIDE CLOSED EYEWALL AT\r\n22Z ALONG WITH 56 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL JUST SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN THE EYEWALL HAS DETERIORATED SOME AND\r\nEXPANDED TO 20 MILES. BASED ON THIS...THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT.  IT IS RATHER UNUSUAL TO REPORT A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH WINDS\r\nLESS THAN HURRICANE FORCE.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING THE WIND TO 77 AND 83 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.  IN\r\nCONTRAST...OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NO INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nWITH SUCH DIVERGENT GUIDANCE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON RECON FIXES AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05.  THE ONLY GLOBAL TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AVAILABLE ARE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS AND THE GFS ONLY\r\nTRACKS THE STORM TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nA GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDAN AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 23.4N  89.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 24.1N  89.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 25.3N  90.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 26.6N  89.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 27.7N  88.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 31.0N  84.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 35.0N  78.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n \r\nIN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BONNIE REMAINS A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WITH A SMALL CDO...CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND BANDING\r\nTHAT IS LIMITED BUT INCREASING.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nRATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nCURRENTLY INVESTIGATING BONNIE SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION AND STRENGTH. THE CREW REPORTED A 10\r\nMILE WIDE EYE...ALMOST UNHEARD OF IN A SYSTEM OF THIS INTENSITY. \r\nTHE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 49 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 43 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES SUCH AS BONNIE ARE PRONE TO RAPID CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY...EITHER UP OR DOWN. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF FACTORS THAT\r\nWOULD ARGUE FOR SUBSTANTIAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nFIRST...ALTHOUGH BONNIE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR...IT SHOULD BE MOVING UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF LATER TODAY. SECOND...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BONNIE\r\nOVER OR VERY NEAR A POOL OF DEEP WARM WATER IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nGULF. A MITIGATING FACTOR WOULD BE THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF. THE LAST TWO RUNS OF BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFS DOES NOT\r\nSHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT IN FACT BARELY ACKNOWLEDGES BONNIE'S\r\nEXISTENCE DUE TO THE CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CALLS FOR BONNIE\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS STILL\r\nBELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THE GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.   \r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7...SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  MOST OF THE 3-DIMENSIONAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS\r\nBONNIE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS...IS FAIRLY SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE NOAA G-IV JET WILL CONDUCT A MISSION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nBONNIE THIS EVENING TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL CONDITION FOR THE\r\nNUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 23.6N  90.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 24.2N  90.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 25.5N  90.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 26.6N  89.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 28.0N  88.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 33.5N  81.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE BONNIE\r\nHAS MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DROPSONDE DATA NEAR THE\r\nCENTER INDICATED 70 KT WINDS JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE\r\nSURFACE WITH SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 51 KT. A SECOND DROPSONDE ALSO\r\nMISSED THE CENTER AND REPORTED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nAND THE PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...A LITTLE BELOW THE MEASURED PRESSURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. MORNING 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT A BREAK IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS\r\nOCCURRED AT 500 MB...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PUSHED INTO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nBEHIND THE TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nGRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH LATER TODAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND\r\nIS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 36-48 HOURS...A\r\nSECOND AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE\r\nWESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE BONNIE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN 48-60\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT\r\nAFTER THAT. A 96-HOUR POSITION WAS ADDED FOR CONTINUITY SINCE THE\r\nBONNIE CIRCULATION MAY BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE\r\nTO THE U.S. EAST COAST AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD...WHICH MAY RESULT IN RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER\r\n...THE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO LIGHT\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS AS BONNIE PASSES OVER OR NEAR A WARM\r\nEDDY IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nKICKS IN AROUND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...\r\nBUT IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL MODEL WHICH MAKES BONNIE A 102 KT\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE GFDL SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED\r\nAT THIS TIME SINCE IT RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES BONNIE IN BETWEEN 36 TO\r\n48 HOURS...IN THE FACE OF 50-60 KT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA G-IV JET WILL CONDUCT A MISSION IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nBONNIE THIS EVENING TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL CONDITION FOR THE\r\nNUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. A SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO NWS OFFICES...AND INLAND WFO FORT WORTH AND WFO NORMAN...FOR\r\nTHE 6 HOURLY UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS TO HELP IMPROVE THE FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 24.2N  90.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  90.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 26.2N  90.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 27.4N  89.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 29.5N  86.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 35.5N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 49.0N  70.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT OR EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE BONNIE HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nTIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DESPITE THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION. SHIP H3GQ REPORTED 40 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS\r\nABOUT 40 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z. BASED ON THIS REPORT AND A\r\nRECON REPORTED PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY\r\nBEING DECREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/05. THE LAST TWO RECON POSITIONS\r\nINDICATE BONNIE HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG EXPECTED TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SUBSEQUENT\r\nSATELLITE DATA CONFIRMS THIS MOTION...AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SLIGHT\r\nEAST OF DUE NORTH MOTION. THIS NEW MOTION IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nJUST AN EXTENSION AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. BONNIE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24-30\r\nHOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WHICH CAN\r\nRESULT IN RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS. BONNIE MAY BE GOING THROUGH\r\nONE OF THOSE TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS NOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nPREDICATED ON DEEP CONVECTION RETURNING WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS. ARGUMENTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING OVER THE CENTER\r\nLATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY IS...THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE OUTER\r\nBANDING FEATURES NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BONNIE EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE INTO A WEAK OR EVEN NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN 12-24 HOURS...VERY\r\nWARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE USUAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM PERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING...WHICH MAY CAP THE INTENSITY\r\nTREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nWATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL\r\nAREAS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 24.7N  90.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 25.5N  90.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 26.8N  89.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 28.5N  87.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  84.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 37.0N  76.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 53.5N  68.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FROM 17 TO 23Z FOUND A MAXIMUM\r\nWIND OF 43 KT AT 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL AND 1004 MB.  ALSO SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A SPUTTERING VERY SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHEREFORE THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND IS REDUCED FROM 45 KT TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/04.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN\r\nADVANCE OF A MID LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nBONNIE HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SINCE THE CURRENT TREND\r\nHAS BEEN FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nBECOMING LESS LIKELY.  THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE WINDS TO 82 KT\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL...BUT NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL GOES TO ONLY 45 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST 70 KT WINDS BEFORE LANDFALL AND THIS\r\nADVISORY FORECAST BACKS OFF TO 60 KT WHICH MAY STILL BE TOO HIGH.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nNORTHWEST FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 25.0N  90.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  90.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 27.6N  89.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 29.8N  86.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 32.5N  83.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 42.0N  75.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nMUCH.  THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN A BIT...1001 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS WERE 44 KT.  A DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 41\r\nKT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS\r\n40 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND THE\r\nAIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT BONNIE HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AGAIN. \r\nBONNIE WILL BE PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER AND HAS ANOTHER 12\r\nHOURS OR SO UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS...SO THERE IS STILL AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THE\r\nGFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE.  AS BONNIE\r\nAPPROACHES THE COASTLINE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BE\r\nA LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 000/4.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  DATA FROM THE G-IV JET\r\nMISSION LAST NIGHT SHOW MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ABOUT TO SCOOP\r\nBONNIE UP.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTRACK THAT SHOULD TAKE BONNIE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-36\r\nHOURS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 25.5N  90.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 26.7N  89.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.6N  88.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 34.0N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 43.0N  72.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA...AND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42001\r\n...INDICATE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAND HAS STRENGTHENED. BUOY 42001 LOCATED ABOUT 45 NMI NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 41 KT WITH A GUST\r\nTO 52 KT. GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING A 10 MB PRESSURE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN BONNIE AND BUOY 42001 INDICATE NEAR 50-KT WINDS\r\nARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/05. IT APPEARS THAT BONNIE HAS\r\nPASSED NORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA AND IS COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BONNIE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TURN\r\nMORE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY...IF IT HASN'T DONE SO ALREADY. THE\r\nGLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LANDFALL\r\nOCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE MAIN\r\nCONCERN IS THAT WITH THE MID-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nSOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BY 24 HOURS...BONNIE COULD MAKE A\r\nSHARP TURN MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EAST JUST BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS. THIS WOULD BE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND THIS SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY EVALUATED FOR THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION AND\r\nINTENSITY AT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL STROM WATCH AREA.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH THE BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...TOPS AS COLD AS -83C...THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE\r\nCENTER THIS MORNING. IF RECON FINDS AN EYE OR EYEWALL FORMING LATER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BONNIE COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOUR TIME PERIODS...BEFORE\r\nWEAKENING OCCURS DUE TO INCREASING WIND SHEAR JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\nFACTORS SUPPORTING POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nARE -- BETTER INNER-CORE WIND FIELD ORGANIZATION CURRENTLY\r\nONGOING...DEEP CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTER...LOW SHEAR\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND BONNIE PASSING OVER A\r\nWARMER GULF EDDY IN 12-18 HOURS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM PERIOD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 25.9N  90.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 27.4N  89.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 29.6N  86.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 32.3N  83.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 36.0N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 45.5N  70.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE BONNIE HAS MADE THE\r\nEXPECTED SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN\r\nDIFFICULT FOR THE FLIGHT CREW TO ASSESS A SOLID CENTER LOCATION DUE\r\nTO THE MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BURSTS AND SMALL MESOVORTICES THAT HAVE\r\nBEEN SPINNING UP AND SPINNING DOWN. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE LAST 4 RECON POSITIONS...SATELLITE ESTIMATES...\r\nAND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST\r\nMODEL FORECAST TRACKS. THE ADVISORY PRESSURE IS LOWER THAN THE\r\nRECON REPORTS AND IS BASED ON NEARBY BUOY REPORTS AND REDUCING THE\r\nPRESSURE ABOUT 10 MB ASSUMING A GRADIENT A WIND OF 50-55 KT. A\r\nSUBSEQUENT LATE REPORT FROM NOAA BUOY 42001 INDICATED A GUST TO 66\r\nKT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 55 KT. REDUCTION\r\nOF A 72-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND ALSO YIELDS A 57 KT SURFACE WIND. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. BONNIE HAS CLEARLY MADE THE\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING DIRECTLY\r\nINFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TEXAS\r\nCOAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF BONNIE LOCATED OVER\r\nSOUTHERN FLORIDA IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS\r\nSHOULD FURTHER ENSURE THAT BONNIE WILL GENERALLY MOVE IN A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO AND SUGGESTS LANDFALL IN\r\nABOUT 18 HOURS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. \r\n \r\nAFTER THE EARLIER TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS LEVELED OFF AND SO HAVE THE WIND SPEEDS. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS\r\nIMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.\r\nBONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR JUST NORTH OF A WARMER GULF EDDY\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS...COINCIDENTALLY THE SAME TIME AS THE NIGHT TIME\r\nCONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL ABOUT 18 HOURS AND NORTH OF 29N\r\nLATITUDE...SO BONNIE MAY BECOME A LOW END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE BY\r\nTHURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...35-50 KT 200 MB WINDS MAY\r\nBRING ABOUT WEAKENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE TIMING OF THIS WEAKENING REQUIRES THAT A HURRICANE WARNING\r\nBE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 26.7N  89.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 28.2N  87.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.8N  84.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 34.1N  81.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 38.3N  77.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 48.0N  67.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n \r\nBONNIE HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PAST\r\n6-9 HR.  THE TIGHT INNER CORE THAT HAD BEEN PRESENT FOR THE LAST\r\nTHREE DAYS COLLAPSED DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS IN A BAND OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SO FAR...THE\r\nEVENING RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1007-1008 MB AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 39 KT.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...SUGGESTING THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT\r\nHAVE SAMPLED THE STRONGEST WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 50 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY STRAIGHT\r\nFORWARD.  BONNIE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTELY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING AND THEN MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE COLLAPSE OF THE CENTRAL CORE AND STEADILY INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS\r\nCLOSING.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS JUST GENERATED A BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHTS\r\nFLARE-UP COULD REGENERATE A TIGHT CENTER AND BRING BONNIE TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AT\r\nALL BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL... BONNIE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  ONE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO KEEP THE\r\nWINDS AT 35 KT DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE DUE TO THE NEAR 35 KT\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nSINCE BONNIE COULD STILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE DIURNAL\r\nCONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. \r\nTHIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED IF LATER DATA SHOWS THAT BONNIE\r\nIS NOT RE-INTENSIFYING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 27.4N  88.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 28.9N  86.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 31.9N  83.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 36.5N  78.5W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 42.0N  73.5W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 53.5N  62.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURAL CHANGES MENTIONED EARLIER HAVE CONTINUED LEAVING THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS IN A BAND OF CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  THE\r\nSYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE VERTICALLY SHEARED. SO FAR...THE\r\nLATEST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT HAS REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1010 MB AND MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...SUGGESTING THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT\r\nHAVE SAMPLED THE STRONGEST WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nBONNIE NOW APPEARS TO BE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS HAS\r\nBEEN ANTICIPATED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/14.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  BONNIE IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTELY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH...MAKING LANDFALL OVER\r\nTHE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVING THROUGH\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCONCENSUS...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE STEADILY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS OVER. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nJUST GENERATED BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  EVEN SO IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DEEPEN ENOUGH TO REACH\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM INVARIANT AT 45 KTS UNTIL LANDFALL...BUT SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.  AFTER LANDFALL... BONNIE SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nAND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. \r\n\r\nBASED UPON THE ABOVE THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 28.4N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 30.4N  85.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 35.1N  81.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 40.8N  76.5W    35 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 47.0N  72.0W    35 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 56.2N  59.2W    35 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BONNIE\r\nREMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED.  THE CENTER PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE NOAA\r\nBUOY 42039 EARLIER TODAY PRODUCING GUSTS TO 47 KNOTS AN A 1002.7 MB\r\nPRESSURE. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nBECOMING ELONGATED AND IT IS IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL. A PORTION OF THE BROAD CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS\r\nALREADY INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ABOUT 24 KNOTS.\r\nONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AND\r\nBONNIE SHOULD BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO\r\nAS IT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 29.5N  85.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 32.5N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 37.5N  78.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 44.0N  73.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 50.0N  68.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION OF BONNIE IS ALREADY INLAND\r\nAND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\nWINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED.  BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT\r\nMOVES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...BEGINNING AT \r\n11 PM EDT TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 31.1N  83.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 35.0N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  75.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 46.5N  70.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-09 17:45:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n145 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS\r\nEARLIER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ISLANDS OF TRINIDAD AND\r\nMARGARITA SHOW WEST-SOUTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS OF AROUND 10\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY.  SINCE THERE IS NOW A DEFINITE CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nAT THE SURFACE...THE SYSTEM NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS BEING\r\nNUMBERED AT THIS TIME.  VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY\r\nWELL-ORGANZIED SYSTEM WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/19.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED\r\nFOR AS THE CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THIS TRACK IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL\r\nOUTPUT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1745Z 11.7N  61.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 12.0N  63.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 13.0N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.0N  70.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N  81.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 21.5N  85.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT IMPRESSIVE ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE OUTER CLOUD STRUCTURE...WITH IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO CONCENTRATION OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  GIVEN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL\r\nRUN...MAINLY DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 280/19.  NO MATERIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN\r\nMADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING BEHIND IT.  A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nGREATER ANTILLES.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCAUSE A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nRIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 11.8N  62.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 12.5N  64.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 13.4N  68.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.3N  71.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.3N  74.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N  79.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  82.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 22.0N  85.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 09 2004\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPEARS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN AS IT MOVES\r\nTHROUGH THE TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  WHILE BANDING\r\nIS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE ARE EARLIER TODAY...NEW CONVECTION IS\r\nFORMING NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE STILL APPEARS DISORGANIZED AS A NEW CENTER APPEARS TO BE\r\nFORMING FURTHER NORTH.  ACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 35 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD\r\nAND THE DEPRESSION IS WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT TERM\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.  SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A\r\nMORE STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES AT A BRISK 285/20.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD\r\nREMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND STEER THE\r\nDEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS.  GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nBUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AS DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE DEPTH OF THE\r\nSTORM AND THE EVOLUTION OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  NOGAPS\r\nMAINTAINS A SHALLOW STORM AND TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM WHICH TURNS MORE NORTHWARD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR\r\nAS THE GFDL OR GFS WHICH BOTH TAKE THE STORM OVER JAMAICA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 12.4N  64.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 13.1N  66.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.2N  70.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.3N  73.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.4N  76.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 20.8N  83.3W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N  86.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT HAS\r\nPERSISTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE\r\nGETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  WHILE OUTER BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE\r\nCURRENTLY MINIMAL BUT INCREASING...THE CIRCULATION OCCUPIES A LARGE\r\nENVELOPE AND OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  DVORAK CI\r\nNUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5...AND ON THIS BASIS THE SYSTEM IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.\r\n\r\nCHARLEY CONTINUES TO SPEED ALONG AT 285/21...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THE INCREASED DEPTH OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  MOST TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED\r\nNORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE\r\nTHEREAFTER AS CHARLEY REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET NOW TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA...WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS\r\nTAKES CHARLEY INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AT DAYS FOUR AND\r\nFIVE.  GIVEN THE WIDE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A LITTLE FASTER\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY IS QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH VERY WEAK\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND AN INCREASINGLY WARM OCEAN.  THE GFDL MAKES\r\nCHARLEY A HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS...AND SHIPS DOES SO IN LESS\r\nTHAN TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT INDICATES MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE IMPROVING ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 13.0N  66.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 13.9N  69.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.0N  72.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.3N  76.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N  79.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N  82.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 22.5N  86.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  88.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. \r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 45 KT...FROM\r\nAFWA...SAB...AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40\r\nKT.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK OUT THE STORM LATER\r\nTODAY AND SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF CHARLEY. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PARTICULARLY PROMINENT OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY INCREASE\r\nIN STRENGTH BUT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OR GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.  CHARLEY IS LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN BUT THERE IS ALWAYS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A BIT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS...AND THE 12 FT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A REPORT FROM\r\nSHIP ELWR5 TO THE NORTHWEST OF CHARLEY.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ESTIMATED MOTION. \r\nCHARLEY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A SWIFT EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS RATHER\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE\r\nDIVERGENT THEREAFTER.  BY THAT TIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE THE\r\nEASTERNMOST OF THE ENSEMBLE WITH THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nTRACKS SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF.  HOWEVER\r\nTHESE LATTER TWO TRACKS ARE PROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE LEFT BECAUSE OF\r\nAN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK VORTEX IN THE SIMULATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BROWN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 13.7N  68.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 14.5N  71.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.7N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N  78.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N  80.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  84.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 24.0N  86.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 28.0N  87.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN OUR TRACK GUIDANCE FOR CHARLEY\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  IT APPEARS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A\r\nGREATER INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH THAN IN\r\nEARLIER RUNS...ERODING MORE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CURVE\r\nNORTHWARD SOONER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED.  BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE\r\nCHANGE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONES.  THIS IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST NOGAPS RUN. \r\nALSO...SINCE THE FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT SLOWED THUS FAR...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...IF CHARLEY FOLLOWS THE INDICATED TRACK...THE\r\nSPEED MAY VERY WELL BE TOO SLOW BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN JUST WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL END UP IN 3-5 DAYS.  \r\nIF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE IS SIMILAR...THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nMAY HAVE BE SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST.\r\n\r\nON THEIR FIRST PENETRATION INTO THIS STORM...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nREPORTED A 999 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET\r\nSAMPLED ALL QUADRANTS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BASED ON THIS\r\nPRESSURE READING THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO\r\nBE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY\r\nRATHER WEAK...BUT THIS MAY VERY WELL BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING BUT REMAINS MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 15.2N  70.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 16.3N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 17.7N  77.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 19.4N  80.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 21.0N  82.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N  83.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 29.0N  83.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 33.0N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2004\r\n \r\nBACK NEAR 20Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND A TIGHT\r\nCENTER WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 72 KT JUST TO THE NORTHEAST.  SINCE THEN...A PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST HAS FORMED OVER OR JUST EAST TO THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A 55 KT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT FAST FORWARD\r\nMOTION IS LIKELY ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nBEYOND THAT WHICH WOULD NORMALLY BE SUPPORTED BY A 999 MB STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/22...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE JUST\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT.  CHARLEY IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE CHARLEY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THIS HAPPEN. \r\nTHE VARIOUS MODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...\r\nCALLING FOR CHARLEY TO TRACK ACROSS JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...\r\nAND WESTERN CUBA ON ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE CLUSTERING HAS BECOME EVEN TIGHTER THAN 6 HR AGO SINCE THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD.  THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGE JUST A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AFTER 72 HR...WHILE\r\nTHERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT\r\nDISAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTEST NOGAPS...THE\r\nINTERMEDIATE GFDL...GFS...AND NHC98...AND THE SLOWER BAMS.  THE\r\nFORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED...CALLING FOR CHARLEY TO MOVE\r\nINLAND ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF FLORIDA AND ACCELERATE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nTROUGH SHOWN IN THE MODELS.\r\n\r\nCHARLEY IS IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE\r\nSOME SIGNS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FROM A CYCLONE WEST OF\r\nTHE STORM IS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPRESSIVE OUTLOW AT THIS\r\nTIME.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON OTHER THAN\r\nHITTING LAND THAT CHARLEY SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN.  THE GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS BOTH CALL FOR 95-100 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH JUST\r\nYET...BUT WILL CALL FOR CHARLEY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE\r\nOVER THE GULF.  AFTER RECURVATURE...PASSAGE OVER LAND AND THE START\r\nOF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 16.0N  72.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.1N  75.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 18.8N  78.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 20.7N  81.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 22.9N  82.3W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 26.5N  83.0W    85 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 31.0N  82.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 37.5N  77.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n\r\nCHARLEY HAS MAINTAINED A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...AND OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nEXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED\r\nON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE RAPID MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT\r\n295/21...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY BUT ALSO ON RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES THAT SUGGEST THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ALONG THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BUT ARE ONCE AGAIN SUGGESTING A FASTER\r\nMOTION...BRINGING CHARLEY INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS...AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON\r\nDAYS THREE AND FOUR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nBY DAY FOUR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHARLEY REMAINS FAVORABLE...AND THERE IS NO\r\nREASON WHY STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD NOT OCCUR...OTHER THAN\r\nBRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\nLESS THAN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS...REACHING\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 24 HOURS...WITH\r\nSOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE\r\nWATERS WILL BE QUITE WARM AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR STILL WEAK.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST BRINGS THE 34 KT WIND RADII JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE FLORIDA KEYS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM\r\nDRY TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 16.9N  74.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.1N  77.3W    60 KT...OVER JAMAICA\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 19.9N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 22.3N  81.8W    70 KT...OVER CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N  82.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 34.0N  79.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 43.5N  72.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 50.0N  59.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK SO\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 285/16. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.  CHARLEY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE.  THIS IS INDICATED BY\r\nALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW\r\nSHARP THE CURVE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONLY SMALL\r\nCHANGES IN THIS CURVE WILL HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE\r\nIMPACT OF CHARLEY ON SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EARLY GOING...BUT\r\nESSENTIALLY BLENDS INTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD LOCATION AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED RESULTS IN THE\r\nSAME FORECAST POINT  AT 48 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO\r\nWATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE NOT YET BEEN\r\nISSUED.  THESE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED A CLOSED EYEWALL AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nWAS DOWN TO 995 MB...ALTHOUGH ON A SUBSEQUENT FIX IT WAS 996 MB.\r\nBASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE CYCLONE IS NEARING HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.  CHARLEY LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED ON MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES. \r\nTHERE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING WILL BE LAND. \r\nHOWEVER THE LAND MASSES OF JAMAICA...AND EVEN WESTERN CUBA...ARE\r\nNOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY\r\nSHOWS STRENGTHENING IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS\r\nOUTPUT. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE INTENSITY.  CHARLEY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONGER\r\nHURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 16.5N  76.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.9N  78.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N  80.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 22.7N  82.0W    80 KT...ON COAST OF CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  82.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 34.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 44.0N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 51.0N  55.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n\r\nTHE LAST RECON MISSION FOUND 80 KT AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WHICH\r\nSUPPORTED THE UPGRADE OF CHARLEY TO A HURRICANE.  SINCE THAT TIME\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A RAGGED\r\nBANDING-TYPE EYE SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER ALL\r\nQUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A\r\nWEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS.  HOWEVER THIS LOW\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...SO THE\r\nATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...AND THE OCEAN VERY\r\nFAVORABLE...FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE LAND MASS OF WESTERN CUBA\r\nSHOULD CAUSE AT MOST A TEMPORARY INTERRUPTION OF THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS. \r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT MORE AND...AFTER WOBBLING A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nRESUMED A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE...290/15.  I SEE NO MAJOR CHANGES\r\nTO THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO CURVE AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AND IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nACCELERATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL RUN...AS WELL\r\nAS WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE 36 HOUR FORECAST WIND RADII AND TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO INCLUDE THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD...AND THE\r\nFLORIDA KEYS EAST OF CRAIG KEY TO OCEAN REEF INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 17.0N  77.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.3N  79.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 20.5N  81.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 23.2N  82.5W    80 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  82.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 35.0N  79.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  72.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 49.0N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 11 2004\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN\r\nOSCILLATING AROUND 992 AND 993 MB. FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WIND WAS 76\r\nKNOTS WITH A SMALL CLOSED EYEWALL OF 8 N MI. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. SINCE THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THE SHEAR IS\r\nLOW...AND THE FACT THAT THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER AN\r\nAREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODELS. THE GFDL IS MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE AND MAKES CHARLEY A 106-KNOT HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES\r\nWESTERN CUBA.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON\r\nAS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 17.8N  78.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.6N  80.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 22.5N  82.3W    85 KT...NEARING CUBA\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 25.5N  82.5W    90 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 29.5N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 38.0N  77.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 46.5N  68.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 51.5N  53.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH THE UKMET AND THE GFDL SHOWING THE GREATEST CHANGE.\r\nDROPSONDE DATA FROM THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOWED A LITTLE\r\nMORE RIDGING OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THIS MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE\r\nFOR THE SHIFT. I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY RADICAL CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK UNTIL THIS TREND CAN BE CONFIRMED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS A LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA AREA\r\nNORTHWARD THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA. BECAUSE CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAPPROACH THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA COAST AT A SHARPLY OBLIQUE\r\nANGLE...IT IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT CHARLEY'S\r\nLANDFALL...AS SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD CORRESPOND\r\nTO LARGE ERRORS IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT CHARLEY STRENGTHENED\r\nOVERNIGHT...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF JUST UNDER 100 KT. \r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT CHARLEY SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  CURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS LIMITING OUTFLOW IN THAT QUADRANT...BUT THIS MAY\r\nBECOME LESS OF A FACTOR WHEN CHARLEY ENTERS THE GULF.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TAKES CHARLEY TO JUST SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...BUT\r\nIT COULD JUST AS EASILY REACH THAT THRESHOLD PRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\nSHOULD THIS OCCUR THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE\r\nEXISTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 18.6N  79.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 20.3N  81.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 23.3N  82.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 26.3N  83.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 40.0N  76.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 46.5N  67.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 12 2004\r\n \r\nRECENT DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITES...AND RADARS\r\nFROM CUBA INDICATE CHARLEY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED. THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 983 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AT 700 MB. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION AND EARLIER RECON WIND REPORTS INDICATING NEAR 80 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND IS\r\nIMPROVING TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/15. CHARLEY REMAINS BASICALLY ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WHILE THE SPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE...THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE MODELS REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NOAA \r\nGULFSTREAM-IV DROPSONDE DATA ALONG WITH 12Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ERODING\r\nEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW CHARLEY TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TURN NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY MORNING\r\nWHEN THE HURRICANE IS NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA. AFTER THAT...CHARLEY\r\nWILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...WHICH WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE THE\r\nHURRICANE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF CHARLEY CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AWAY\r\nFROM THE HURRICANE...WHICH IS LESSENING THE SHEAR. SINCE THE\r\nCENTRAL CORE DEEP CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...AND THERE\r\nIS AN ABUNDANCE OF WARMER WATER AHEAD...CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nINTENSIFY AND COULD POSSIBLY REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nIT REACHES WESTERN CUBA. AFTER PASSING OVER CUBA...THE INTENSITY\r\nMAY DROP SLIGHTLY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ALMOST UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.\r\nTHERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT CHARLEY COULD BE NEAR MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST\r\nCOAST...ESPECIALLY IF IT MAKES LANDFALL FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND\r\nSOUTHWARD WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE LESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 19.7N  81.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 21.6N  82.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 24.6N  83.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  82.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.2N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 40.5N  76.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 47.0N  66.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004\r\n \r\nCHARLEY CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON\r\nDATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND RADARS\r\nFROM CUBA. WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ONLY DECREASED TO 980 MB\r\n...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGHER THAN AVERAGE\r\nSURFACE PRESSURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THEREFORE...THE USUAL\r\nPRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP MAY NOT BE VALID...AT THIS TIME. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 105\r\nKT...OR A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 95 KT...AND A 92 KT DROPSONDE\r\nSURFACE WIND. A SMALL EYE HAS BECOME QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/15. CHARLEY BASICALLY REMAINS ON\r\nTRACK. UNFORTUNATELY...THERE IS SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE\r\nLATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW GFDL AND UKMET RUNS HAVE MADE A\r\nWIDE TURN 75 TO 150 NMI LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND\r\nMOST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND NHC MODELS HAVE ALSO MADE A\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT. HOWEVER...THE 6- AND 12-HOUR GFDL AND UKMET\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS ARE ALREADY 30 TO 60 NMI WEST OR LEFT OF THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. A STRONG UPSTREAM TROUGH NOTED DIGGING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOULD HELP TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD MOTION. BASED\r\nON THE DEVELOPING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN\r\nOVER THE GULF...AND AN APPARENT LEFT BIAS BY MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF CHARLEY IS NO LONGER AN INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR. IN CONTRAST...CHARLEY HAS DEVELOPED WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT SHOWS SIGNS OF ONLY GETTING\r\nBETTER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE SMALL EYE FEATURE AND AN\r\nABUNDANCE OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...CHARLEY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPIDLY\r\nINTENSIFYING...AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL\r\nOVER WESTERN CUBA THIS EVENING. THE TERRAIN OVER WESTERN CUBA IS\r\nNOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND LITTLE...IF ANY...DISRUPTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT\r\nIS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF\r\nBY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nSEEMS QUITE PROBABLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.\r\nCHARLEY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BETWEEN THE 12 AND 24 HOURS\r\nTIME PERIODS...AND THEN WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL DUE\r\nTO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE\r\nTAMPA BAY AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 21.2N  81.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 23.1N  82.7W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.5N  83.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  82.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 34.2N  80.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 42.0N  75.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 48.5N  65.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 975 MB...WINDS FROM\r\nDROPSONDES AND AT THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL ARE SO FAR NO HIGHER\r\nTHAN ON THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT.  THE AIRCRAFT AND LAND BASED RADAR\r\nFROM KEY WEST FLORIDA AND CIENFUEGOS CUBA HAVE SHOWN THE 15-20 NM\r\nDIAMETER EYEWALL SPORADICALLY BREAKING OPEN.  IN CONTRAST...\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...\r\nALTHOUGH CHARLEY HAS THUS FAR NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRONG\r\nSYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND IT.  ALL THESE SIGNS POINT TO A SYSTEM\r\nTHAT IS SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 90 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER. \r\nRADAR TRACKING SHOWED A DUE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR A TIME THIS\r\nEVENING...WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION OF WHETHER CHARLEY IS TURNING\r\nNORTHWARD A LITTLE PERMATURELY.  ASIDE FROM THAT...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.  CHARLEY IS ON THE WEST SIDE\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHICH HAS ITS\r\nAXIS AT ABOUT 25N.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL AND\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  CHARLEY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR\r\n12-24 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. \r\nALL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS BASIC SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ALONG THE SAME LINE AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR\r\nBUT SOMEWHAT SLOWER.  IT IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL.  AFTER 48\r\nHR...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT TO COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS POSITIONS OF EXTRATROPICAL CHARLEY.\r\n \r\nWHILE CHARLEY IS CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING SLOWLY...THERE IS STILL\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO GIVEN THE FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE WARM WATER AND THE\r\nGOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  ONE\r\nPOTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS A DRY SLOT WHICH HAS WRAPPED ALL THE\r\nWAY AROUND INNER CORE.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES CHARLEY TO 97 KT IN\r\n24 HR...WHILE THE GFDL BEINGS IT TO 112 KT.  THE LATTER IS\r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE INTENSIFICATION RATE INCREASES.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR CHARLEY TO PEAK AT 105 KT PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL...BUT IT COULD BE STRONGER.  AFTER LANDFALL...PASSAGE OVER\r\nLAND AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND EVENTUALLY\r\nCAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF A PREMATURE NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE FORECAST\r\nSIZE OF THE STORM REQUIRES TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO BE EXTENDED\r\nSOUTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREQUIRES EXTENSION OF HURRICANE WARNINGS UP THE FLORIDA WEST COAST\r\nAND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES INTO SOUTH CAROLINA.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE REST OF THE ADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...THE AIRCRAFT HAS\r\nFOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 973 MB.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 22.2N  82.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 24.0N  82.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 26.8N  82.8W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N  81.7W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 35.0N  79.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 43.5N  74.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 48.5N  66.5W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT AFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE\r\nEYE STILL REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH ABOUT AN 18 N MI DIAMETER. MAX\r\nWINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE 104 KNOTS AT 700 MB WITH AN\r\nEXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 968 MB AND 970 MB BY A DROP. KEY WEST\r\nRADAR SHOWED DOPPLER WINDS HIGHER THAN 100 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING ADJUSTED TO 95 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THE WATER IS WARM. THEREFORE....CHARLEY IS\r\nLIKELY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nCHARLEY IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN GUIDANCE AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY\r\nBRING THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF FLORIDA BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA\r\nBETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA\r\nTO STEINHATCHEE RIVER. THE EXTENTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWIND RADII TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COASTS AS\r\nINDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 23.9N  82.9W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 26.3N  82.9W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 29.8N  82.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  81.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 38.0N  78.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 45.5N  73.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE THAT CHARLEY REMAINS ON\r\nTRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/16.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MOTION ACCELERATING\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AFTER WHICH CHARLEY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY IS FOR WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE\r\nALONG AND NEAR THE GEORGIA COAST AS CHARLEY GOES BY AND A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ALERT TO THIS POSSIBILITY.  A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH IS ALSO EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\nAN EYEWALL DROPSONDE AT ABOUT 12Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE\r\nWINDS ARE STILL NEAR 95 KTS.  A CLOSED 10-MILE DIAMETER EYEWALL\r\nPERSISTS AND THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED 5 MB TO 965 MB DURING THE\r\nPAST TWO HOURS SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE\r\nFLORIDA WEST COAST.  THEREAFTER THE GFS AND OTHER MODELS SHOW THE\r\nSTRONG WINDS EXPANDING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM AS IT MOVES\r\nNEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 25.2N  82.8W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 27.7N  82.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.4N  81.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 35.8N  79.2W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 40.2N  76.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 46.5N  71.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROOPCAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-08-13 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nRECENT AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS ALONG WITH RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 125 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nHAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nFORECAST WHICH SHIFTS THE GREATEST RISK TO THE AREA OF CHARLOTTE\r\nHARBOR FLORIDA.  THESE CHANGES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF THIS SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1800Z 26.0N  82.4W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 27.5N  81.8W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  80.0W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 36.0N  77.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 40.5N  74.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 46.5N  68.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF CHARLEY HAS MOVED INLAND NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR\r\nFLORIDA.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THE MAXIMUM\r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE AT LEAST 125 KT AT LANDFALL AND THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 941 MB.  THE CLOSED EYEWALL HAD SHRUNK TO A\r\nFIVE MILE DIAMETER.  A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED OF 148 KNOTS\r\nCORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 130 KT.  IT\r\nIS EXPECTED THAT THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nAN UNOFFICIAL WIND GUST TO 127 MPH WAS RECENTLY REPORTED NEAR PUNTA\r\nGORDA FLORIDA ALONG WITH A 943.6 MB SURFACE PRESSURE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/19.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO\r\nIS UNCHANGED WITH AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN\r\nADVANCE OF A STRONG TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nGREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH IS SOMEWHAT TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE OTHER MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WHEN THE CENTER\r\nMOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THIS AS\r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HURRICANE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC\r\nSEABOARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 26.9N  82.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.7N  81.1W    75 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 33.9N  79.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  76.3W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  72.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 47.5N  66.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 49.5N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nCHARLEY HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING ITS PASSAGE OVER THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO AT LEAST 975\r\nMB...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE IN THE\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CHARLEY RETAINS THE TIGHT WIND CORE IT HAD\r\nAT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE SMALL EYE SEEN ON RADAR AT LANDFALL IS\r\nGONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION\r\nOF SURFACE AND WSR-88D DOPPLER WIND DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 020/22.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  CHARLEY IS NOW EMBEDDED IN DEEP LAYER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES ON THE EAST SIDE OF A UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 48 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDES.  THIS\r\nTRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CHARLEY ACROSS OPEN WATER FOR\r\n12-18 HR OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH OR NORTH\r\nCAROLINA....THEN MOVE IT ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS\r\nALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC.  THERE ARE A LOT OF\r\nNEGATIVE FACTORS...INCLUDING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN\r\nCHARLEY EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...AND INCREASING PROXIMITY TO A FRONTAL ZONE.  THE\r\nBIGGEST POSITIVE FACTOR IS THE CONTINUED EXISTENCE OF THE INNER\r\nCORE.  BASED ON THE CORE...AND THE GFDL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE NEXT LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...CHARLEY\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 29.1N  81.1W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  80.0W    80 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 36.3N  77.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 41.1N  74.1W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 44.6N  70.7W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 48.5N  63.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAX WINDS OF 88 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN\r\nQUADRANT AND NOT MUCH TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IS 994 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS.  THE\r\nSHEAR IS HIGH BUT SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IT\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER..CHARLEY\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL\r\nZONE.\r\n \r\nCHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 22\r\nKNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH. THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN\r\nTHE WARNING AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TAKE THE HURRICANE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 31.2N  80.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 34.3N  78.8W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 39.0N  75.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  72.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 47.0N  67.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Charley","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nCHARLEY IS ON THE COAST NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.  RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 90 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 989\r\nMB.  SO THE WIND IS KEPT AT HURRICANE FORCE AT 15Z.  HOWEVER IT IS\r\nNOT CLEAR THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE AS\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE STRONG FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE WAY\r\nBELOW HURRICANE FORCE.  IN ANY CASE...CHARLY WILL SOON WEAKEN BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH OVER LAND IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/24.  THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME\r\nWITH AMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVING EASTWARD. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS.  CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TRANSFORM TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT MOVES FURTHER NORTH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 33.2N  79.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 36.7N  76.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 41.0N  74.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 44.6N  69.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 47.0N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 49.0N  54.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  44.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 49.0N  31.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA AND RADAR SHOW A TIGHT CIRCULATION MOVING OVER EASTERN\r\nNORTH CAROLINA.  WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 61\r\nKT AT 1736Z SO THE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/26.  THE TRACK SCENARIO IS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND\r\nFLATTENING OUT AS IT RUNS INTO A RIDGE IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nGLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN ADVANCE\r\nOF THE WEAKENING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST FOLLOWING A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF A\r\nCIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS SO THE FORECAST IS TERMINATED AFTER 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 36.0N  77.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 39.5N  74.5W    50 KT...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 42.7N  70.6W    30 KT...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 44.9N  66.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 46.5N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 48.5N  52.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nCHARLEY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY\r\nEVIDENCE OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAINING BEING THE RELATIVELY\r\nSMALL WIND CORE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS POSSESSED SINCE IT FIRST\r\nFORMED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1012 MB ARE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  CHARLEY SHOULD BECOME\r\nCOMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HR OR LESS WITH WINDS LIKELY\r\nWEAKENING BELOW GALE FORCE IN 24 HR AT THE MOST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/30.  CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY \r\nNORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE IN 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 37.9N  74.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 40.8N  71.6W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 44.1N  66.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 46.2N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 47.3N  57.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 49.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Charley","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nCHARLEY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM...WITH ABOUT THE ONLY\r\nEVIDENCE OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS REMAINING BEING THE RELATIVELY\r\nSMALL WIND CORE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS POSSESSED SINCE IT FIRST\r\nFORMED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1012 MB ARE BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  CHARLEY SHOULD BECOME\r\nCOMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL IN 12 HR OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/26.  CHARLEY SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE IN 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 40.8N  73.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 43.5N  69.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 45.5N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 47.3N  59.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 48.4N  55.1W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n  \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Charley","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY NO LONGER HAS A\r\nCENTER...SO THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  SOME GUSTY WINDS MAY OCCUR\r\nOVER COASTAL NEW ENGLAND TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH CHARLEY'S\r\nREMNANTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 43.0N  69.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 240 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR BASED ON A\r\nCONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES. UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. LOCATING THE EXACT CENTER IS\r\nDIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED REORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY\r\nTHE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW TO NORTH. BY 48 HOURS...ALL THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN\r\n35-40W LONGITUDE...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A\r\nSMALL POLEWARD STAIR-STEP IN THE TRACK MAY OCCUR AT THAT TIME...\r\nAFTER WHICH A RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nTROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nNORTH OF THE WARMEST WATER IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WILL ALSO PLACE\r\nTHE SYSTEM DEEPER INTO THE COOLER AND MORE STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW\r\nTHAT EXISTS EAST OF 50W LONGITUDE. AS SUCH...ONLY MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND STAYS\r\nOVER WARMER WATER...THEN IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 12.2N  22.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 12.4N  24.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 12.8N  27.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.3N  29.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.0N  32.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N  36.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N  41.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N  46.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE\r\nTHAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD POSSIBLY BE A TROPICAL STORM ALREADY...BUT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB AND\r\nT2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM SAB. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE\r\nBANDING OR DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER FOR THIS\r\nSYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/13. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. THE TRACK WAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO RIGHT BASED ON THE CENTER BECOMING BETTER DEFINED A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER NORTH.  BY 48 HOURS...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL\r\nAGREE ON A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTH\r\nAND SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN 35-40W LONGITUDE...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WEAKENING OF THE\r\nRIDGE WILL OCCUR. SEVERAL OF THE NHC MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 96 HOURS...BUT A SMALL POLEWARD STAIR-STEP IN THE\r\nTRACK...WITH A RETURN TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...COULD OCCUR\r\nINSTEAD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A COMPROMISE OF THOSE TWO SCENARIOS\r\nUNTIL MORE CONSISTENT MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES AVAILABLE. \r\n \r\nONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE HIGH LATITUDE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND THE RELATIVELY COOL WATER...26-27C SSTS...THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER...EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. HOWEVER\r\n...IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND STAYS OVER\r\nWARMER WATER...THEN IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 12.5N  24.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 12.8N  25.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 13.3N  28.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 14.0N  30.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 15.2N  34.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N  38.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N  42.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 19.0N  45.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SHOWING IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...WITH A MARKED\r\nINCREASE IN BOTH BANDING AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR NEAR THE CENTER OVER\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nAT 0Z WERE T2.5...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS\r\nWEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT\r\nWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER FROM THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS THE NOGAPS...WHICH WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND TAKES ITS\r\nREMNANTS WESTWARD. GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS\r\nALTERNATIVE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nMOST OF GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE\r\nREASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER...SLIGHTLY BELOW\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 12.7N  24.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N  26.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N  29.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.3N  31.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  34.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  38.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N  42.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AND 2.5. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KTS.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS SOUTHEAST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH GLOBAL MODELS\r\nWEAKEN SHARPLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS PRESENT\r\nWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE CONCENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND WATER TEMPERATURES WILL BE\r\nREASONABLY WARM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES DANIELLE OVER SUB 27C WATER AFTER THAT HOWEVER.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTHEREAFTER...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 13.2N  25.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 13.6N  27.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N  30.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 14.9N  32.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N  34.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 18.7N  38.4W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N  42.2W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N  44.6W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING\r\nBETTER DEFINED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DVORAK T NUMBERS\r\nARE NOW A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT ACCORDINGLY.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY REASONABLY\r\nWARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER A TONGUE OF\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATER IN THE VICINITY OF 18N MAY LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 280/12.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO EVOLVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH\r\nWOULD ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIELLE.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUALLY INCREASING NORTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nOF MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODEL SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 13.3N  27.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N  29.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  31.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.6N  33.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.9N  35.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  39.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  42.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 25.5N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN. \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEGUN TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER AND DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE NOW 3.5.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 55 KT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/13.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nBUT REMAINS LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORECAST MAY\r\nHAVE TO BE ADJUST A LITTLE FURTHER EAST IF THE MODEL TREND TO THE\r\nRIGHT CONTINUES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 13.7N  28.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.4N  30.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N  32.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N  34.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N  36.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  39.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  43.5W    80 KT\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 4.0...4.0...AND 3.5 FROM SAB...AFWA...AND \r\nTAFB RESPECTIVELY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 0000 UTC INDICATES THAT\r\nDANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A 2247 UTC\r\nSSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE. \r\nDANIELLE IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO 65 KT...THE THIRD HURRICANE OF\r\nTHE SEASON.  SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/13.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO PREDICT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW DANIELLE TO\r\nTURN NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WHILE THE GFS MODEL IS TO THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 14.2N  30.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.9N  31.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.2N  33.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.7N  35.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.1N  37.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N  40.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 25.0N  42.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 28.0N  43.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. AODT VALUES ARE T4.5...OR 77 KT. BASED\r\nON THIS INFORMATION AND THE NICE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE\r\nNOTED IN A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nDANIELLE. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW\r\nDANIELLE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN.  MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS ARE INDICATING RECURVATURE...BUT THOSE MODELS ARE\r\nALREADY WELL TO THE RIGHT OF DANIELLE'S RECENT MOTION AND CURRENT\r\nPOSITION. THE NEW GFS RUN TAKES DANIELLE GRADUALLY NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 80F AND WARMER WATER AND IN A\r\nWEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\nTHEREFORE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY..AND DANIELLE COULD\r\nEVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF IT CONTINUES ITS\r\nCURRENT WESTWARD MOTION A LITTLE LONGER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 14.2N  31.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  33.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.9N  35.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.4N  37.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N  39.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N  42.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 26.5N  44.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 FROM ALL\r\nTHREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 75 KT.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM\r\nWATER AND IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL. BEYOND 36 HOURS...NHC GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING\r\nBEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE IS MOVING A TAD NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 290/14. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUING TO FORECAST A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE. IN\r\nRESPONSE...DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nSLOW DOWN AS IT ENTERS WEAKER STEERING.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO\r\nDIVERGE ON HOW SHARPLY DANIELLE WILL RECURVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.\r\nTHE GFS KEEPS DANIELLE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WHILE\r\nNOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL INDICATE A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.  GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION IS ALREADY INDICATING A MORE POLEWARD TURN...THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 15.0N  32.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.9N  34.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.6N  36.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.6N  38.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.7N  40.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 25.7N  42.1W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 31.0N  42.4W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N  39.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE DAY WITH THE EYE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT. \r\nDVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT\r\n85 KT MAKING DANIELLE THE THIRD CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE OF THIS\r\nSEASON.  DANIELLE IS IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATER. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND A COOLER OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DANIELLE.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS MOVING ALONG AS EXPECTED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS 290/14. THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BEING A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE. DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE EASTWARD BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVENTUAL\r\nRECURVATURE OF DANIELLE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH\r\nCONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM AND TRACK IT NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORCAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 15.4N  33.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N  35.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.7N  37.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.8N  39.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 23.1N  40.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 27.4N  41.3W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 31.6N  40.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  36.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIELLE HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nSMALL EYE THAT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSCURED BY COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nOVER THE SOUTH AND EAST EYE WALL.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nNOW A CONSENSUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 90 KT FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT LESS DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE HURRICANE AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM NOW HAS A MORE CIRCULAR REPRESENTATION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2016Z INDICATED THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD AROUND DANIELLE IS NOT AS LARGE AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AND THE\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ESPECIALLY\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER DANIELLE IS RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT AND\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST UNIFORM ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS SO\r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER...ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS NOW MOVING AT 305/15...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION...AS EXPECTED.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE RECURVES\r\nDANIELLE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE OUTLIER IS\r\nTHE GFS...WHICH PRACTICALLY DISSIPATES DANIELLE WITHIN 72 HOURS. \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH MAINTAINS DANIELLE AS A STRONG CYCLONE...THIS\r\nSCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLEANS HEAVILY ON A CONSESUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. IF DANIELLE HAPPENS TO\r\nWEAKEN A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED...THE DEGREE OF RECURVATURE\r\nMAY NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 16.4N  35.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.9N  36.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.9N  38.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N  39.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N  40.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 28.5N  41.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 32.5N  39.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 35.0N  35.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004\r\n\r\nMETEOSAT-8 INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE-INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW THAT\r\nDANIELLE HAS ELONGATED A BIT IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH DIRECTION.\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS CONTRACTED TO LESS THAN 10\r\nNM AS THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 5.0 RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KTS\r\nFOR THE INITIAL TIME PERIOD.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG AT 310/15...WHICH IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TENDS TO MOVE\r\nTHE SYSTEM NORTH AND RECURVE DANIELLE TOWARD THE AZORES BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS. THE GFS STILL REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE GROUP...\r\nHOWEVER THE NOGAPS TRACK HAS MOVED IN WITH THE REST OF THE PACK.\r\nTHE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTH AND\r\nEVENTUALLY TRACK NORTHEAST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS CONSENSUS...SO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 24 HOUR...SO THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KTS OVER THE NEXT DAY WITH GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING FORECAST LATER AS DANIELLE EDGES CLOSER TO THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST CYCLE...SO THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREASONING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/SISKO\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 17.2N  36.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.7N  37.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  39.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.8N  40.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 24.9N  40.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 29.2N  40.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 32.8N  38.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 35.1N  33.7W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A 16/0953Z\r\nSSMI/I PASS DEPICT A 14 NM IRREGULAR EYE WITH STRONG CONVECTION\r\nREMAINING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS. THE SSMI/I PASS\r\nALSO REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS MORE INTENSE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS\r\nCLOUD-FILLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN AT T-NUMBERS OF 5.0\r\nRESPECTIVELY...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 315/15...AND AS EXPECTED...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BY DAY 2 WITH A RECURVE\r\nTOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE WEAKENING TREND AS\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH\r\n24 HOURS...AFTERWARD REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS...AND\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE 12 HOUR PERIOD AS DANIELLE\r\nMOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEAKENING\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 18.2N  37.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N  38.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.8N  40.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 24.1N  41.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 26.6N  41.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 30.5N  40.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 34.0N  37.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 37.0N  31.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A MORE\r\nASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A SMALL 10 NM\r\nIRREGULAR EYE. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS THAT THE STRONGER CONVECTION IS\r\nCONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA T-NUMBERS ARE 5.5...5.0...AND 5.0\r\nRESPECTIVELY. THE ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATED A\r\nBRIEF PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY ON A SINGLE IMAGE FROM 18Z...WHERE A\r\nT-NUMBER OF 5.5 COULD HAVE BEEN DETERMINED.  HOWEVER...BASED ON\r\nCURRENT IMAGERY...90 KT SEEMS MORE REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330/16...WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION TO EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE \r\nINDICATES A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36 HOURS WITH A RECURVE\r\nTOWARD THE AZORES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS...SUGGESTING AN ABRUPT WEAKENING TREND AS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE MOVES BENEATH THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THROUGH 24 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND... REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE 15Z FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS\r\nDANIELLE MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 19.7N  38.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 21.6N  39.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 23.7N  40.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 26.3N  41.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 28.5N  41.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  37.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 37.5N  32.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 16 2004\r\n \r\nEARLIER THIS EVENING DANIELLE EXHIBITED A SMALL 10 NM WIDE EYE\r\nCOMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY COOLING CLOUD TOPS. SINCE THEN...CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE EYE IS NOW\r\nALMOST COMPLETELY OBSCURED...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT DANIELLE IS\r\nBEGINNING TO EXPERIENCE SOME SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS AS INDICATED BY SLIGHTLY LOWER T NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT\r\n90 KT FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/15...AND A DECELERATING TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nIS EXPECTED AS DANIELLE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE GFS SHEARS OFF DANIELLE...ADVECTING THE MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT A VERTICALLY\r\nCOHERENT SYSTEM WILL PERSIST AND EVENTUALLY BE PICKED UP BY\r\nSTRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT DAYS 4 AND 5...FAVORING A TRACK\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE DISAGREES ON THE RATE OF WEAKENING...WITH SHIPS\r\nBRINGING THE WINDS DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN THE GFDL.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE ONLY MODESTLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WHILE\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT OR EVEN\r\nINCREASE A LITTLE.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nONLY SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFDL...FOLLOWED BY THE MORE RAPID DECAY SHOWN BY THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 21.0N  39.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 22.8N  40.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 25.1N  41.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 27.5N  41.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 29.5N  41.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  39.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 35.5N  35.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 38.5N  29.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-08-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT. HOWEVER\r\n...WHEN THE EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT...ODT INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH\r\nAS T5.1...OR 92 KT. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE THREE\r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL INDICATE AT\r\nLEAST 85 KT. GIVEN THE HIGHER ODT VALUES AND THE COLD TOPS STILL\r\nPRESENT IN THE EYWALL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 90 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/14. THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS HAVE\r\nBEEN COMING IN ON TRACK. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS INFLUENCED\r\nBY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 450 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nAFTER THAT...DANEILLE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY\r\nROUND THE TOP OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 25N\r\nLATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS IN 48-60H...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE TO NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BY\r\nDAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 34 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR ACROSS DANIELLE. USUALLY SUCH STRONG SHEAR CONDITIONS WOULD\r\nHAVE DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT\r\nWEAKENING TO OCCUR...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN THE CASE. GIVEN THAT THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE SHEAR WITH TIME AND THAT AT LEAST\r\n27C SSTS ARE AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH 60H...THE INTENSITY OF\r\nDANIELLE IS ONLY DECREASED SLOWLY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nAND IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS. BY 120H...IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT DANIELLE COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE AZORES AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA IN THE ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 22.3N  39.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 24.1N  40.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 26.4N  41.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 28.6N  41.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 30.5N  40.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 34.0N  38.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 36.5N  34.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 39.5N  28.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-08-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS LESS SYMMETRICAL...THERE IS STILL AN\r\nEYE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 90 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER RELATIVELY WARM\r\nWATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY THEREAFTER. DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY\r\nFIVE.   \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. SOON DANIELLE \r\nWILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ACCELERATES DANIELLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT\r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL\r\nMODEL KEEP THE HURRICANE NEARLY STATIONARY BY DAY 3 AND 4. I MIGHT\r\nREGRET IT FOR NOT FOLLOWING THE GFS BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nACCELERATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE GFDL AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 24.0N  40.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 26.0N  40.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  41.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 30.0N  40.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 32.0N  38.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 35.5N  36.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 38.0N  31.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 46.0N  21.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-08-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME ELONGATED ON A NORTH-SOUTH\r\nDIRECTION. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE EYE IS LOCATED\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CI NUMBERS\r\nINDICATE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS...THE T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS. DANIELLE COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY THEREAFTER. DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY FIVE\r\nOR BEFORE.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGRES AT 16 KNOTS. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nDANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK MID-LATITUDE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN\r\nBETWEEN THE 36 AND 72 HOUR PERIOD. THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nNOGAPS...UK AND THE GFDL MODELS.  BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE\r\nFACT THE THESE TWO MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE CONSIDERABLY AND MOVE\r\nIT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS\r\nAND UK TRIO...MAINTAIN A DEEPER CIRCULATION WHICH IS MORE LIKELY TO\r\nSTEER THE CYCLONE WITH THE MEAN LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.\r\n\r\nON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING NEARBY OR OVER THE\r\nAZORES BETWEEN 4 AND 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 25.8N  40.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 28.0N  41.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 30.0N  40.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 32.0N  39.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 33.5N  37.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  36.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 38.0N  30.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 46.0N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-08-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 17 2004\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED 1ST PARAGRAPH TO INDICATE THAT UKMET HAS OUTPERFORMED\r\nGFDL...\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS\r\nLAGGING BEHIND THE CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN\r\n355/12...CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nQUITE DIVERGENT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO IMMEDIATELY SHEAR OFF\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND LEAVE ITS REMNANTS TO MEANDER.  TO VARYING\r\nDEGREES...THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL MAINTAIN A MORE VERTICAL\r\nSYSTEM AND RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD.  DANIELLE IS CLEARLY BEGINNING\r\nTO SUFFER FROM SHEAR...BUT NOT NEARLY TO THE EXTENT INDICATED BY\r\nTHE GFS.  THE NOGAPS ON THE OTHER HAND...WHICH BOGUSES A\r\nVORTEX...SHOWS NO SIGNS OF A SHEARED SYSTEM 24 HOURS INTO THE\r\nINTEGRATION.  I HAVE REJECTED BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFS AS\r\nUNREALISTIC.  THAT LEAVES THE GFDL AND THE UKMET...THE LATTER OF\r\nWHICH HAS HANDILY OUTPERFORMED THE FORMER WITH THIS SYSTEM SO FAR. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES IN\r\nABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.  THERE IS A WIDE RANGE\r\nIN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...FROM 65 KT FROM AFWA TO 90\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED FROM 85 TO\r\n80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGH THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WARM SSTS WILL STILL BE AVAILABLE FOR\r\nANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 26.5N  40.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 28.3N  40.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 30.2N  39.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 31.8N  38.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  37.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 35.0N  34.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 39.0N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 46.0N  16.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-08-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING SOME MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR. A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR ALSO PUNCHING IN\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWEST HAS RESULTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nBECOMING PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS STILL JUST\r\nINSIDE THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD...SO DANIELLE IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AS A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...\r\nAND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF T4.5...OR 77 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/12. EVEN THOUGH DANIELLE HAS BECOME PARTLY\r\nSHEARED...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN KEEPING UP WITH THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. THIS IS A TESTAMENT TO THE DEEP VERTICAL\r\nCIRCULATION THAT THIS CYCLONE HAD WHEN IT CAME OFF WEST AFRICA\r\nALMOST A WEEK AGO. SINCE DANIELLE WILL REMAIN OVER 26C AND HIGHER\r\nSSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...INTERMITTENT CONVECTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO BURST NEAR THE CENTER AND HELP TO KEEP THE VERTICAL\r\nCIRCULATION INTACT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY\r\nROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 30-32N LATITUDE...AND THEN\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AFTER THAT AS THE A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY CAPTURES IT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...SINCE THE GUNA CONSENSUS IS MUCH SLOWER AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nGFS MODELING RAPIDLY WEAKENING DANIELLE AND KEEPING IT STATIONARY.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT\r\nCONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BE A GALE AREA AS IT MOVES\r\nTHROUGH THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 27.9N  40.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 29.4N  40.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 31.3N  39.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 32.7N  38.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 33.8N  37.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 36.5N  32.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 40.0N  26.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 46.0N  16.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-08-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE IS WEAKENING. THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nHIGHLY DISRUPTED. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. SINCE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAINS WEAK...THEREFORE\r\nDANIELLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST AND...ACCELERATION IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WEAKENING OCCURS\r\nFASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND DANIELLE BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW.\r\nIT COULD THEN MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND IN\r\nFACT...THE GFDL IS NOW SLOWING DOWN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN TUNE\r\nWITH THE GFS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 28.5N  39.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 30.2N  39.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 31.5N  39.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 32.5N  37.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 33.5N  36.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 35.0N  33.5W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 37.0N  29.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 44.0N  18.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-08-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004\r\n  \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS WEAKENING DUE\r\nPRIMARILY TO SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS\r\nWEST. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION AND\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CENTER OF\r\nDANIELLE PASSED NEAR A DRIFTING BUOY WHICH MEASURED ONLY 1008.6 MB.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS AND THIS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nHIGH SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES\r\nAT 9 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE COLLAPSING AND THERE IS NO CHOICE\r\nBUT TO FORECAST A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH ARE MOVING THE CYCLONE SLOWER THAN\r\nIN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. ON THIS TRACK...DANIELLE WILL\r\nLIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 4 DAYS OR SO. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND BECOMES A SHALLOW DEPRESSION OR\r\nA REMNANT LOW...IT COULD MEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS PRODUCING\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THE LATTER IS THE SOLUTION OF\r\nTHE GFS WHICH IS BY NO MEANS OUT OF THE QUESTION.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 29.3N  38.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 30.6N  38.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 32.0N  37.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 33.0N  36.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 33.5N  35.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 34.5N  32.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  28.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 40.0N  24.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-08-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004\r\n \r\nDANIELLE SHOWS A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING...WITH THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS AT 18/2036Z WITH UNCONTAMINATED 40 KT WINDS...AND A\r\nCOMBINATION OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE HAS TURNED RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 055/9...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS ON THE SPEED.  THE\r\nSTORM IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM\r\nAND A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST NEAR 33N45W.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS SUGGEST A LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH WILL PASS NORTH OF DANIELLE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE AZORES.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS TO THIS WITH SOME DIVERGENCE.  THE GFS LOSES DANIELLE\r\nQUICKLY...WHILE THE GFDL STALLS THE CYCLONE FOR 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE UKMET/NOGAPS CALL FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 72-96 HR...WITH THE NOGAPS TURNING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nUKMET/NOGAPS FOR 96 HR...BUT SHOWS LESS OF A TURN THAN THE NOGAPS\r\nAT 120 HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTH OF AND SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE SHOULD STAY OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH 72\r\nHR...SO THE BIGGEST INTENSITY QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SHEAR WILL OCCUR. \r\nTHE MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.  THE\r\nGFS/CANADIAN MODELS TAKE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF DANIELLE AND\r\nMOVE IT BODILY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD LIKELY\r\nDESTROY DANIELLE.  THE UKMET/NOGAPS ALSO MOVE THE LOW EASTWARD BUT\r\nWEAKENING IT RAPIDLY WHILE DOING SO...WHICH COULD LEAVE DANIELLE IN\r\nA LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN SOME STRENGTH. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...\r\nCALLING FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. \r\nBY 72 HR...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW TO THE NORTH SHOULD\r\nREACH DANIELLE AND CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 29.6N  37.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 30.2N  36.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 31.2N  35.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 32.3N  35.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 33.1N  33.9W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 34.5N  31.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 36.0N  28.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 38.0N  27.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n \r\nDANIELLE REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nDEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS A BLEND OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T2.5...OR 35 KT AND A\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM ALL\r\nTHREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWING 40 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/04. DANIELLE HAS MADE SOME LARGE\r\nWOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE GENERAL\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ALBEIT AT A MUCH SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY OR EVEN WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE PUSHING\r\nINTO A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE/SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST. THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES UPON THE ASSUMPTION THAT\r\nDANIELLE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nMAINTAIN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...IF THE CONVECTION\r\nWEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY OR DISSIPATES...THEN DANIELLE WILL RAPIDLY\r\nSPIN DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY OR EVEN MOVE BACK TO THE\r\nWEST OR SOUTHWEST LIKE THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND GFDN MODELS ARE\r\nINDICATING. HOWEVER...IF THE LATTER SCENARIO SHOULD HAPPEN...THEN\r\nDANIELLE WOULD NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS\r\n...IF THAT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY ALLOW FOR AT LEAST\r\nINTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AND KEEP DANIELLE ALIVE. BY\r\n72 HOURS...ASSUMING DANIELLE IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE... \r\nINTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BRING\r\nABOUT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...OR POSSIBLY EVEN ABSORPTION INTO A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 30.0N  37.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 30.4N  37.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 31.1N  36.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 32.0N  35.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 32.9N  33.6W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 34.5N  30.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 36.5N  28.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH PATCHES OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE EARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWS WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS. STRONGER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER\r\nDANIELLE SO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE WAS MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW\r\nDRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A\r\nSLOW NORTHEAST TRACK ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS LATER TODAY. BECAUSE THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NO INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 30.0N  37.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 30.5N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 31.0N  36.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 32.0N  35.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 32.5N  34.5W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 34.0N  32.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 36.0N  28.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODELS IN THE 12Z RUN...A BIG PLUS\r\nFOR THE GFS IF THIS HAPPENS. DANIELLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. \r\nMOST OF THE MODELS ARE BUILDING A RIDGE NORTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE FORCING DANIELLE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS BEGAN TO SUGGEST THIS NORTHWESTWARD\r\nOR WESTWARD TREND MUCH EARLIER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. I HAVE NO\r\nOPTION BUT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST AND MOVE DANIELLE VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nNEVERTHERELESS...ALTHOUGH DANIELLE REMAINS AS 35-KNOT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE SO A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...SINCE\r\nDANIELLE IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IT\r\nCOULD LINGER A LITTLE BIT LONGER AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A\r\nREMNANT LOW INSTEAD OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 30.0N  37.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 30.0N  37.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 30.8N  37.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 31.5N  37.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  37.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 32.5N  37.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  37.7W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 34.0N  39.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n\r\nEVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PERSISTENT CONVECTION\r\nEARLIER ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE HAS SHEARED AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nA FEW NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN\r\nQUADRANT.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2010Z SHOWED AT LEAST 30 KT WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2316Z\r\nSUGGESTED THERE MAY STILL BE 35 KT WINDS IN THE REMAINS OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT\r\n35 KT ONE MORE TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 100/3.  DANIELLE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ISOLATED FROM MOST STEERING INFLUENCES. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT 72 HR...\r\nWHEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS NEAR THE AZORES.  THIS SHOULD MOVE\r\nDANIELL GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FROM THAT TIME...WITH ERRATIC\r\nMOTION UNTIL THEN.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON JUST WHERE THE\r\nSTORM COULD WIND UP BEFORE THE 72 HR POINT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UNTIL 72\r\nHR...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL...GUNS...AND GUNA MODELS AFTER THAT. \r\nTHE FIRST 72 HR IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE DANIELLE COULD BE FURTHER EAST IF THE UKMET AND NHC98\r\nVERIFY.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WAS WEST OF\r\nDANIELLE LAST NIGHT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SYSTEM...WHICH\r\nHAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT SHEARING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG FOR 72 HR. \r\nDESPITE THIS...THE GFDL AND SHIPS HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM UNTIL 120\r\nHR...AND SO WILL THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THERE ARE TWO ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIOS.  THE FIRST IS THAT DANIELLE COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE 72 HR\r\nDUE TO THE SHEAR.  THE SECOND IS THAT LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE SHEAR TO DIMINISH SOME AFTER 72 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW SOME\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IF DANIELLE SURVIVES THAT LONG. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 29.7N  36.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 29.9N  36.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 30.5N  35.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 31.1N  35.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 31.7N  36.1W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 32.5N  36.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 33.0N  37.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 34.5N  39.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND ERRATIC WITH A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD\r\nDRIFT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW\r\nCUTTING OFF NEAR 30N 55W OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN A\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THERE IS LESS AGREEMENT ABOUT THE\r\nEAST-WEST COMPONENT OF MOTION WITH ABOUT A 400 N MI EAST-WEST\r\nSPREAD IN THE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWEST\r\nTO NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND HAVE\r\nNOT CHANGED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS.  SOME CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE\r\nUP TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA IS THE\r\nSAME USED TO JUSTIFY KEEPING 35 KT IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SO\r\nTHE WIND WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT AGAIN IN THIS ADVISORY.  STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EVIDENT OVER THE STORM AND THIS SHOULD BRING\r\nDANIELLE TO BELOW STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY\r\nDONE SO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 30.3N  37.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 30.5N  36.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 30.8N  37.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 31.1N  37.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 31.5N  38.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 33.0N  38.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 35.0N  39.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 37.0N  39.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE APPARENT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE\r\nENVIRONMENT...DANIELLE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH LIMITED...TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CYCLONE AT THIS\r\nTIME...EXACERBATING THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THEREFORE...\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT DANIELLE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM A\r\nLITTLE BIT LONGER SINCE NEITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS WEAKEN\r\nDANIELLE. IN FACT...THE LATTER MAKES DANIELLE A HURRICANE AGAIN.\r\n\r\nDUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...DANIELLE HAS BEEN MEANDERING SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD STEER DANIELLE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK AT THIS TIME. I RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL\r\nCYCLE TO SEE IF THE NORTHWESTWARD TREND CONTINUES.     \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 30.8N  37.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 31.1N  37.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  38.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 32.0N  38.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  39.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 34.0N  40.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 36.0N  41.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 39.5N  41.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Danielle","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nFINALLY...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMOVED MOST OF THE CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A TIGHT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH SO\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY\r\nDEVELOP INTERMETTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD AND BECAUSE A RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 31.0N  37.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 31.3N  38.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 31.8N  38.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 32.5N  39.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 33.5N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 35.0N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 40.0N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 44.0N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Danielle","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH AND DANIELLE WILL BE\r\nTRACKING OVER A PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AND DANIELLE\r\nWILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nDANIELLE TO RE-INTENSIFY BETWEEN 24-48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...BUT THIS REMAINS AN ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AND THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBEEN MEANDERING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE CURRENT INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 315/04.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nBUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF THE NEXT WESTERLY TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY LEFT AND IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 31.2N  38.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  38.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 31.9N  39.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  40.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 33.7N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 36.6N  42.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 41.0N  41.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 45.2N  36.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Danielle","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004\r\n \r\nTHE PAST 24 HOUR MOTION IS 290/03 AND THE PAST 6 HOUR MOTION IS\r\n235/04...DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.  THE\r\nGFS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF DANIELLE\r\nAND A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST.  THEN AFTER 72 HOURS...A\r\nMAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS RESPOND TO THIS SCENARIO WITH A GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATING NORTHWEST TO NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE\r\nNEXT 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS\r\nA CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO OCCASIONALLY FIRE UP TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL AGAIN SHOWS A WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE DANIELLE REACHES\r\nCOLD WATER.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS DISSIPATION AFTER\r\n36 HOURS.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL DANIELLE DEGENERATES INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 30.6N  38.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 30.9N  39.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 31.5N  40.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 32.3N  40.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 33.9N  42.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 38.0N  43.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 43.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 47.0N  32.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Danielle","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS VOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. QUICKSCAT SHOWS THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS STILL\r\nESTABLISHED WITH ONE MAXIMUM WIND VECTOR OF 25 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT...THEREFORE THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nIS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE REMNANT\r\nLOW WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER UNLESS REGENERATON OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER\r\nFZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 30.7N  39.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 30.7N  39.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 31.5N  40.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 32.5N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 34.5N  43.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    20 KT...ABSORBED BY A FRONT \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT\r\n910 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME MUCH\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...AT 18Z...AND MUCH IMPROVED\r\nBANDING FEATURES SINCE THAT TIME. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED AT\r\nA RATHER LOW LATITUDE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION TO OCCUR...BUT\r\nIT IS IN THE SAME GENERAL REGION THAT SPAWNED NOW MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nCHARLEY. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST...AND THERE IS\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ON THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. WHILE THE GFDL MODEL MAKES A\r\nSHARP 30-40 DEGREE RIGHT TURN INITIALLY...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 12 HOURS APPEARS QUITE REASONABLE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM AND BE NEAR JAMAICA IN 120 HOURS AS A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS SHOW RATHER ROBUST DEVELOPMENT\r\nFOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE GFDL MAKES THE CYCLONE A 75-KT\r\nHURRICANE IN 60 HOURS AND THEN UNCHARACTERISTICALLY LEVELS OFF THE\r\nINTENSITY AFTER THAT. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP\r\nSTEADILY TO 93 KT IN 120 HOURS. GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF THE\r\nWIND FIELD AS NOTED IN AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...MY FEELING IS\r\nTHAT IT MAY TAKE THE WIND FIELD LONGER THAN USUAL TO CONTRACT DOWN\r\nIN SIZE...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS BULLISH AS\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nVERY LOW...SO SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE VERY WARM CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA IN DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z  8.9N  46.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z  9.5N  48.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 10.3N  52.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 11.1N  55.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 12.1N  59.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N  65.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N  71.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 18.5N  77.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AS WELL AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE WINDS ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND...OTHER\r\nTHAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE BRING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO ABOUT 90 KT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  I HAVE ELECTED\r\nTO GO A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE POOR SATELLITE AND\r\nQUIKSCAT PRESENTATION AND THE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE\r\nINDICATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nWATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS\r\nEARLY SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z  9.4N  48.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 10.0N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 11.0N  54.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 12.1N  58.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 13.2N  61.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N  67.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N  73.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 20.0N  78.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TD FIVE LOOKS VERY GOOD BUT THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 2.0 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY... OTHER THAN THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION...ALL FACTORS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT FOR MAKING\r\nTHE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 280/18.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nA WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONCENSUS.\r\n \r\nWATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z  9.8N  49.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 10.7N  52.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 12.0N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 13.6N  59.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 14.8N  63.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.7N  71.1W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 18.6N  76.9W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N  81.4W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nCURRENTLY THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY ELONGATED ALONG A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AXIS.   HOWEVER DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW PROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND SOUTH.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE LINES OF\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A STEADY INCREASE IN INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...INITIAL MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER...285/20.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE\r\nWILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nMOTION IS THEREFORE INDICATED OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...BUT IS LARGELY AN UPDATE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 10.4N  52.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.5N  55.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 12.9N  58.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.2N  62.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N  66.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N  73.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N  79.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.5N  84.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n\r\nAFTER A BRIEF INTERRUPTION IN THE DEVELOPMENT TREND THIS MORNING...\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY\r\nWITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM\r\nBOTH SAB AND TAFB.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS\r\nTIME.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR EXCEPT TO THE EAST WHERE IT\r\nAPPEARS RESTRICTED.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nPREDICTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nEXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHERE IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE\r\nTHAN THAT MODEL.\r\n\r\nEARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST\r\nCOURSE.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT.  THUS THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS.  AS ALWAYS...THERE IS\r\nSIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST POSITIONS AT THESE EXTENDED\r\nTIMES.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WINDWARD\r\nISLANDS AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 10.8N  54.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 12.0N  57.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.4N  61.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 14.7N  65.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  68.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N  75.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  80.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N  84.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2004\r\n \r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KTS.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS PREDICTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nEARL CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY ALONG A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST\r\nCOURSE.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN.  THUS...THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED BY 4-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 11.3N  56.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 12.3N  59.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 13.6N  63.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.8N  67.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.8N  70.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.7N  76.6W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N  81.3W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 21.1N  85.1W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED\r\nSLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS\r\nT3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT\r\nBASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON\r\nWILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/22. MOST OF\r\nTHE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST\r\nTHAT EARL IS MOVING MORE WESTWARD AND IS...THEREFORE...SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSIONS...EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE\r\nINITIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION. AFTER\r\n72 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED.\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO\r\nTHE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE\r\nROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY\r\nRESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...\r\nNOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nWITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT EARL...SOME SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED. AFTER\r\nEARL SLOWS DOWN IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS...MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH\r\nWARMER WATER IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 11.7N  59.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.7N  62.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.9N  66.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N  70.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.1N  74.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 18.3N  80.3W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 20.5N  84.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N  87.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n\r\nEARL APPEARS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS REPORT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT VERY\r\nWELL-DEFINED...AND IN FACT RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY NOT BE QUITE CLOSED OFF.  THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY DUE TO THE VERY FAST FORWARD MOTION.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT TO THE EAST.  WATER\r\nVAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW AHEAD\r\nOF THE STORM...SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE BECAUSE OF THE VERY\r\nFAVORABLE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE...IF\r\nANY...SKILL IN PREDICTING SUCH EVENTS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIX...INITIAL MOTION IS 280/24.  THE\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT ENOUGH OF A RIDGE WILL BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH TO PREVENT A\r\nSIGNIFICANT RIGHT TURN.  HOWEVER...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL IS AN\r\nOUTLIER AND DOES SHOW EARL TURNING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF BY DAY\r\n5.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A OF THE GUIDANCE SAVE THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED U.K. MET. MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT\r\nTHE TRACK ERROR AT 120 HOURS IS TYPICALLY A FEW HUNDRED MILES...SO\r\nONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THAT EXACT POINT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 11.9N  62.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.9N  65.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 14.0N  69.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 15.3N  73.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N  76.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 24.0N  89.0W    90 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n\r\nEARL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH FAIRLY\r\nSYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nHAD DIFFICULTY CLOSING OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EARLIER TODAY. \r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY STRONG AT THIS TIME. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIRCRAFT FIX IN A FEW\r\nHOURS BEFORE CHANGING THE INTENSITY.  THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS QUITE\r\nFAVORABLE AHEAD OF THE STORM SO STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED\r\n...ESPECIALLY IF EARL SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE GIVEN BY\r\nSHIPS...WITH AN INTERRUPTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.\r\n\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MORE GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL\r\nBE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO PREVENT MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE U.K. MET DOES SHOW A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY\r\nDAYS 4-5.  OTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH.  THE GFS HAS DIFFICULTY TRACKING EARL\r\nAFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SUGGESTS A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 12.3N  63.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.2N  67.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.2N  71.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.2N  75.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N  79.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N  84.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 20.0N  89.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N  92.0W    80 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004\r\n \r\nIF NOT FOR THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA THIS PROBABLY WOULD HAVE BEEN\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ON EARL...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EARL THIS EVENING WAS DENIED\r\nACCESS TO VENEZUELAN AIRSPACE.  HAD THEY BEEN ABLE TO GET TO THE\r\nSTORM...I DOUBT THEY WOULD HAVE FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION...AS THE\r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT 22Z LOOK MORE LIKE AN OPEN WAVE.  \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH DOUBT TO KEEP ADVISORIES GOING UNTIL THE\r\nNEXT AIRCRAFT ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT\r\nTHAT MISSION WILL BE ALLOWED TO PROCEED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/19...AS QUIKSCAT AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OR WAVE AXIS MAY\r\nBE MOVING OUT SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ENHANCED MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER FLORIDA AS THE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS POSSIBLE AS EARL REACHES THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE RIDGE. MODEL GUIDANCE SO FAR HAS TENDED TO BE TOO FAR NORTH\r\nWITH EARL...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF EARL IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN IT WAS EARLIER IN\r\nTHE DAY...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN SEEMINGLY BEING\r\nREPLACED BY A MORE UNIFORM EASTERLY FLOW...AND THE CONVECTION IS\r\nCURRENTLY MEAGER.  THE RAPID FORWARD SPEED ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A\r\nNEGATIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM\r\nIS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BE FAVORABLE...HOWEVER...AND BOTH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE EARL BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE.  THIS COULD HAPPEN EVEN IF THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES INTO AN\r\nOPEN WAVE TOMORROW. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 12.7N  65.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.4N  68.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.3N  72.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.9N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N  85.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N  89.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N  93.0W    70 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED...TO A LARGE\r\nDEGREE...ON EXTRAPOLATION AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER IS SOMEWHERE\r\nCLOSE TO THE EASTERNMOST BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS POSITION IS\r\nAT LEAST 30 NMI AHEAD OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE POSITION\r\nESTIMATES. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 30 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF COLD TOPPED CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT UNTIL\r\nRECON GETS OUT THERE LATER THIS MORNING TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/18. SOME EARLIER\r\nSSMI AND AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT EARL HAS SLOWED SOME...BUT I AM\r\nRELUCTANT TO BRING DOWN THE FORWARD SPEED TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NOW ON A GENERAL\r\nTRACK ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 84-96 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nGFDL HAS MADE A MAJOR SHIFT TO THE RIGHT ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. IT\r\nIS NOW THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS\r\n10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODEL. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL BRINGS EARL TO\r\nNEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 120 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...\r\nAFTER WHICH ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING A SHORTWAVE INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH HELPS TO ERODE THE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONLY THE UKMET AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF. THE REST OF THE\r\nMODELS HAVE ONLY 5-10 KT OF WIND AT 500 MB IN THE WESTERN GULF IN\r\n4-5 DAYS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR EARL TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE\r\nPOLEWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE ON KEEPING THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS UNDER 15 KT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST ACROSS\r\nTHE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA AHEAD OF EARL. THEREFORE...AT LEAST STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CALLED FOR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...AND ACCOUNTS FOR LAND INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA BY 96 HOURS...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THE\r\nGFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS EARL UP TO 91 KT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 13.2N  67.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.1N  70.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 15.0N  74.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 15.7N  78.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 16.3N  81.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N  86.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N  90.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 22.5N  94.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNING...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nWAS UNABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN EARL.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nTHE CASE WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.  SO EARL HAS DEGENERATED INTO\r\nAN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE WAVE IS\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT.  SURFACE WINDS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35\r\nKT RANGE.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE\r\nWAVE TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nAS THE SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  ANOTHER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71.0W WITH 35 KT WINDS \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nSTRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  THEREFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AT THIS TIME.  THERE IS PRONOUNCED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH...EAST...AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE EAST.  ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG\r\nTHE PROJECTED PATH OF THE CYCLONE TO ABOUT 50W LONGITUDE.  FARTHER\r\nWEST AND NORTH...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST\r\n200 MB FORECAST FROM THE GFS MODEL.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING MAY BE\r\nINHIBITED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT AROUND 15 KT.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...DUE TO THE INCURSION OF A TROUGH INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nTHIS TROUGH IS AT RATHER HIGH LATITUDES HOWEVER...SO IT IS NOT\r\nLIKELY TO PLAY A DIRECT ROLE IN STEERING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nNOTWITHSTANDING...THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BUT\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN MOST OF THE MODELS IN VIEW\r\nOF THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH SEEMS TO BE ACCELERATING TO THE WEST \r\nAS WE SPEAK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 11.2N  36.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 11.8N  38.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 12.4N  40.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 13.0N  43.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 13.8N  45.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 16.0N  48.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  53.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nIR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A\r\nLITTLE...PRIMARILY IN A CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH...AND THE OUTFLOW\r\nIS ESTABLISHED EVERYWHERE BUT TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY STRENGTHEN SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO\r\n3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SOME SHEAR AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY GLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HINDER SLOW STRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.\r\nCURRENTLY...THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT\r\nUNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nFORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS. BECAUSE OF CONTINUITY...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IT IS\r\nSTILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS. MOST LIKELY\r\nTHE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT LATER TODAY IF MODELS\r\nINSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH. AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD WELL-EAST OT THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 11.4N  37.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 11.8N  39.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 12.5N  42.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N  44.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N  46.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N  52.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 22.0N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED THIS MORNING. \r\nWHILE STILL ORGANIZED INTO BANDS...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS\r\nDECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND COVERAGE SINCE SUNRISE.  THE\r\nREASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY BE INGESTING\r\nSOME OF THE DRY AIR SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/15.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST\r\nSOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE FROM 48-96 HR AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  IF THIS\r\nVERIFIES...IT WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24-36 HR...AND THEN POSSIBLY TURNING MORE\r\nWESTWARD BY 120 HR AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGFS HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK CONSIDERABLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO SHIFTS\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nOTHER THAN THE CURRENT RAGGED APPEARANCE...CONDITIONS GENERALLY\r\nAPEPAR FAVORABLE FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY FOR THE FIRST 72-96\r\nHR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HR OR SO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION\r\nAND TRENDS...THEN CALL FOR FASTER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  AFTER 72-96 HR...IF THE CYCLONE TRACKS AS FAR\r\nNORTH AS FORECAST...IT MAY ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO LIE EAST-WEST ALONG 18-19N.  THAT\r\nWOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  AN\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE IF THE CYCLONE STAYS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE\r\nAXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW GREATER STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 11.4N  39.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 11.8N  41.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 12.6N  43.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 13.5N  45.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N  47.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N  49.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N  52.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N  55.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING RAGGED THIS MORNING...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON\r\nWITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A BAND WRAPPED AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nFRANCES WITH 35 KT WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE FROM\r\n48-96 HR...AND THEN LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  IF THIS VERIFIES...\r\nIT WOULD ALLOW FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HR...AND THEN\r\nPOSSIBLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HR AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THE GFS TRACK REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF\r\nTHE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND WEST OF ALL THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nFIRST 72-96 HR...WITH THE ONLY SEEMING NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE\r\nDRY AIR SURROUNDING FRANCES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR OR SO\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND TRENDS...THEN CALL\r\nFOR FASTER DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\nAFTER 72-96 HR...IF THE CYCLONE TRACKS AS FAR NORTH AS\r\nFORECAST...IT MAY ENCOUNTER WESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO LIE EAST- WEST ALONG 18-19N. THAT\r\nWOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. A\r\nCONTINUING ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE IF THE CYCLONE STAYS SOUTH\r\nOF THE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW GREATER STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 11.6N  40.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 12.0N  42.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.0N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.9N  46.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 14.9N  48.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N  50.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N  52.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N  55.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF FRANCES.  BANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW ALONG THE PATH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  SO...IN SPITE OF THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF IN\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nLIKELY.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME\r\nLESS FAVORABLE AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IS INDICATED BY THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS OUTPUT FOR 96 AND 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO SHIPS...AS WELL AS\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...NOW 280/14. \r\nA MID-LATITUDE 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS CERTAINLY\r\nAT TOO HIGH A LATITUDE TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE STEERING OF FRANCES. \r\nHOWEVER...THE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFRANCES WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FURTHER SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT.  AMONGST THE GUIDANCE SUITE...TWO\r\nTRACKS...THE GFS AND THE U.K. MET...ARE OUTLIERS.  THE GFS IS WELL\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS WHEREAS THE\r\nU.K. MET. IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLATEST GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND CONU CONSENSUS FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 11.8N  41.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 12.5N  43.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 13.5N  46.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 14.5N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.3N  51.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N  56.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED\r\nCLOUD BAND...DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND GOOD OUTFLOW. IN\r\nFACT...THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING-TYPE EYE WAS\r\nTRYING TO FORM IN EARLIER IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KNOTS BUT IF THE FORMATION OF THE EYE MATERIALIZES\r\n...WINDS COULD BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY ESTIMATED. BECAUSE THE\r\nSHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH BRING\r\nFRANCES TO NEAR 95 KNOTS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...A TURN OF THE\r\nCYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST COULD\r\nBRING FRANCES TO A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.   \r\n\r\nFRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15\r\nKNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY\r\nERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANCES TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHEREAFTER...ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OR WEAKENS...MODELS ARE \r\nUNANIMOUSLY REDEVELOPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFRANCES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT ON A TRACK BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR EVEN TOWARD THE WEST DEPENDING OF THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE.\r\nBOTH THE GFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A STRONGER\r\nRIDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY MOVE THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST NEAR OR\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS DEVELOP A\r\nWEAKER RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WELL-NORTH OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS. IT\r\nIS SIGNIFICANT THAT EACH NEW RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A\r\nFORECAST TRACK FARTHER TO WEST...SO IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THERE\r\nWILL BE INTERESTING DAYS AHEAD.       \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 12.6N  43.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 13.3N  45.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 14.5N  48.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N  50.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 17.0N  51.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.5N  53.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  55.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 20.9N  59.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...\r\nAS NOTED BY THE TIGHT COILING OF BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN OCCASIONAL HINT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE.\r\nA DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS OBTAINED FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES AND INNER-CORE\r\nCONVECTION HAVE IMPROVED SINCE THE 12Z FIXES...SO I HAVE CONTINUED\r\nTHE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE INDICATING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE CIRCULAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/15. FRANCES HAS BASICALLY REMAINED ON\r\nTRACK THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AFTER 36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF TAKE\r\nFRANCES MORE NORTHWESTWARD THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS\r\nTHE GFDL...GFS...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN WESTWARD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES LIE IN\r\nHOW MUCH EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OCCURS NORTH OF FRANCES\r\nIN 36-72 HOURS AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES DIGS SOUTHWARD. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODEL SHOW MORE\r\nEROSION OF THE RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nLIFT OUT THE UPPER-LOW MORE QUICKLY...WHICH ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO\r\nBUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. THE\r\nPAST 24 HOUR TREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LOW HAS PROBABLY PUSHED ABOUT AS FAR SOUTH AS IT CAN...WHICH\r\nWOULD SUPPORT THE GFS-GFDL-CANADIAN SCENARIO OF A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK BY 96 HOURS. THE PAST 4 GFDL RUNS HAVE SUCCESSIVELY SHIFTED\r\nTHE TRACK MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH RUN...WHILE THE GFS HAS A LEFT OF\r\nTRACK BIAS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LEFT OF THE LATEST GFDL RUN...BUT\r\nNOT AS FAR WEST OR AS FAST AS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS.\r\n\r\nFRANCES MAY BE ON A FAST-TRACK IN ITS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS...BUT I\r\nWOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANY DRY AIR ON THE EAST SIDE GETS\r\nWRAPPED INTO THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...IF A DISTINCT EYE APPEARS LATER\r\nTODAY...THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND ALSO MAKING FRANCES A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS LIKE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS ARE\r\nINDICATING...WILL HAVE TO BE CONSIDERED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 13.1N  45.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 14.0N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 15.2N  49.2W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N  51.1W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N  52.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.6N  54.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N  57.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N  61.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SMALL 10-15\r\nNMI DIAMETER BANDING EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY IS T4.0...OR 65 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nTREND OF GOING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE\r\nINDICATING IS BEING CONTINUED ON THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nIS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. FRANCES HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT NOW\r\n...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A SHARP\r\nRIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. IN FACT...THE LATEST UKMET RUN HAS SHIFTED\r\nMUCH FARTHER WEST WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.\r\nTHOSE TWO MODELS...PLUS THE GFDL...HAVE NOW CONVERGED ON TOP OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN ONLY DIVERGE\r\nSLIGHTLY AWAY FROM THE 12Z TRACK AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BOTTOMED OUT\r\nAND IS SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD...SO ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED IN THE 36-72H\r\nTIME PERIOD. AFTERWARDS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN NOGAPS...\r\nIS FORECASTING THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC TO BECOME STRONGLY ZONAL. WITH SUCH STRONG\r\nWESTERLY HIGH-LATITUDE FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED...A CORRESPONDING\r\nRESPONSE SHOULD BE A STRENGTHENING OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES RIDGE\r\nWESTWARD TO PERHAPS THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 120 HOURS. THAT PATTERN\r\nSHOULD HELP TO TURN FRANCES MORE WESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS. AS SUCH\r\n...THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nSINCE FRANCES APPEARS TO HAVE MIXED OUT ANY DRY AIR INTRUSIONS...HAS\r\nA RATHER SMALL EYE...AND GOOD OUTFLOW ESTABLISHED...THEN ADDITIONAL\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS LEVELED SINCE AT\r\nLEAST ONE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE CURRENT SMALL DIAMETER EYE. TIMING ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nEYEWALL CYCLES WITH ANY KIND OF SKILL JUST IS NOT POSSIBLE...BUT\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAY STILL OCCUR SINCE THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE PASSING OVER 29C SSTS...ABOUT 1C ABOVE AVERAGE...BY 96HR.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 13.7N  46.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 14.6N  48.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 15.8N  50.2W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.9N  51.7W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.8N  52.8W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N  55.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N  58.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 21.5N  62.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW QUITE SYMMETRICAL AND THERE HAVE BEEN\r\nHINTS OF AN EYE...OR WARM SPOT...ON THE INFRARED IMAGES. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING EVEN MORE WELL-DEFINED...AND GLOBAL\r\nMODEL 200 MB WIND FORECASTS SHOW A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER/AROUND\r\nFRANCES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS INEVITABLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nTHE SAME AS THAT FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT 4 AND\r\n5 DAYS.  THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE...295/13...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY\r\nAS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS TROUGH\r\nSHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE PICTURE BY 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nLEFTWARD TURN OF THE HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY...BUT HOW MUCH OF A\r\nTURN WILL OCCUR IS UNCLEAR.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AT 500 MB DOES NOT\r\nSHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN VERY STRONGLY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC BY 4-5 DAYS.  THEREFORE THE  FORWARD SPEED WILL PROBABLY\r\nBE SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POINTS CAN EASILY\r\nBE IN ERROR BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 14.0N  47.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N  49.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N  51.2W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N  52.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 18.4N  54.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  56.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 21.5N  59.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 22.0N  62.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nFOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE 0600Z THERE WAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS GAVE THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF A STRONGER HURRICANE SINCE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS WERE\r\nNEAR 5.0 AND A SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATION WOULD GIVE A 5.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE DURING THAT PERIOD. AT THE CLASSIFICATION TIME...06Z...\r\nTHE EYE BECAME LESS DEFINED AND CONVECTION WEAKENED A LITTLE. THIS\r\nRESULTED IN THE SAME 4.5 T-NUMBERS THAT WERE PROVIDED AT 00Z.\r\nTHEREAFTER...MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE SO...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.  THE OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS VERY WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. IN ADDITION...\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER/AROUND\r\nFRANCES WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE EXTENDING UP TO 200\r\nMB. THIS PATTERN IS COMMON IN INTENSE HURRICANES. THEREFORE...\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nASSUMES THAT THE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES CURRENTLY\r\nOBSERVED IN THE AREA WHERE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN 3\r\nDAYS WILL WEAKEN AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFRANCES APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295\r\nDEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTEMPORARILY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD. THIS WOULD RESULT\r\nIN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND PERHAPS A TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE HURRICANE MAY BE DOING SO AS WE SPEAK.\r\nHOWEVER...UNANIMOULSY ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE REBUILDING THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MAKE A\r\nLEFT TURN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL TURN WESTWARD. THE\r\nGFS AND THE CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BRINGING\r\nTHE HURRICANE WESTWARD BASICALLY ALONG 20 NORTH FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. THE UK AND THE GFDL HAVE ALSO SHIFTED THE TRACK MORE\r\nTO THE WEST BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nHALFWAY BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS. THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS HURRICANE MUST BE MONITORED VERY CAREFULLY\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN...IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT 4- AND 5-DAY FORECAST POINTS\r\nCAN EASILY BE IN ERROR BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 14.5N  48.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 15.3N  50.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N  52.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N  53.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N  55.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N  58.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 21.0N  61.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N  65.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE STRENGTHENING TO\r\n90 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB...A SATELLITE\r\nDATA T-NUMBER OF 5.0 FORM AFWA...AND 27/1010Z UW-CIMSS AMSU\r\nPRESSURE RETRIEVAL OF 969.8 MB...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 90 KT. THE\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS NOW 300/09. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND HAS BEGUN TO\r\nSLOW DOWN. A NORTHWESTWARD JOG MAY OCCUR...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FRANCES IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nNOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 52W LONGITUDE CONTINUES TO ZIP\r\nALONG EASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THEN\r\nDIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE DIFFERING\r\nTRACKS...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON HIGH ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG\r\nWESTERLIES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC AFTER 48HR. SUCH A STRONG HIGH-LATITUDE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN\r\nIS USUALLY REFLECTED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH\r\nTHAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST FROM THE AZORES TO BERMUDA AND INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S.  MY CONCERN IS THAT THE RIDGE MAY BUILD IN FASTER\r\nTHAN EXPECTED AND DRIVE FRANCES MORE WESTWARD SOONER THAN FORECAST\r\n...WHICH IS WHAT THE 06Z GFS MODEL IS INDICATING. HOWEVER...MAKING\r\nSUCH A SUDDEN AND SHARP 45 DEGREE LEFT-OF-TRACK TURN AT 48 HOURS IS\r\nPROBABLY OVERDOING IT SOME...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT\r\nTREND IN THE GFS MODEL THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED A LITTLE MORE SOUTH AND WESTWARD IN 72-120HR.\r\n\r\nFRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nINCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO AT LEAST SOME SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL SHARPLY BRINGS DOWN\r\nTHE INTENSITY TO 73 KT AFTER 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OF 25-30 KT. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FICTITIOUS AND\r\n'SELF-INFLICTED' BY THE GFS/SHIPS MODEL...DUE TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK BEING ABOUT 180 NMI NORTH OF THE GFS FORECAST\r\nPOSITIONS IN 72-120H. THIS PUTS FRANCES IN THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW\r\nIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A VERY INTENSE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH THAT\r\nALL THE MODELS DEVELOP OVER FRANCES. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS DISCOUNTED\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 15.0N  49.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.8N  50.4W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.0N  52.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 18.0N  53.6W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 18.9N  55.2W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N  58.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N  62.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 22.0N  67.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS INDICATED BY A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5...OR 102 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB. THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN VERTICAL DEPTH\r\nAND AREAL COVERAGE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPROVE AND EXPAND OUTWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS 305/09. FRANCES HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD JOG AS\r\nALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED DUE NORTH OF FRANCES\r\nMOVES EASTWARD AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS\r\nSHOULD TURN FRANCES BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THERE\r\nIS NOW MUCH LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC MODEL SUITE AFTER 48 HOURS\r\n...AND IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS. ALL OF THE MODELS NOW AGREE THAT\r\nTHE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S.\r\nAND THE NORTH ATLANTIC AFTER 48HR WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO EXTEND EAST-WEST FROM THE AZORES\r\nTO BERMUDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THE LATEST GFS AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE UKMET AND\r\nGFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. ALL\r\nOF THESE MODELS ARE CONVERGING NICELY ABOUT THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL\r\nNHC FORECAST TRACKS...SO I SEE NO REASON AT THIS TIME TO MAKE ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nINCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL \r\nNOW MAKES FRANCES A 113 KT MAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...SINCE THE\r\n'SELF-INDUCED' VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OWING TO THE GFS\r\nFORECAST POSITONS BEING CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\nTHERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS...BUT CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY SOME TIME\r\nDURING THAT PERIOD...AND CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH IS EVEN POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 15.7N  49.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 16.9N  51.2W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 17.9N  52.8W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 18.9N  54.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 19.7N  56.4W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 20.6N  60.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 21.5N  64.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  69.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nBASED UPON SSMI IMAGES AND INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION...FRANCES\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH THE\r\nNET RESULT BEING A LARGER EYE DIAMETER AND A LIKELY DECREASE IN\r\nWIND SPEED.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT CONFIRMED BY THE FACT THAT TAFB\r\nDETERMINED A T5.5 AND SAB A T5.0...COMPARED TO TAFB HAVING THE SAME\r\nINTENSITY AND SAB DOWN ONE-HALF T NUMBER FROM 6 HOURS AGO. GLOBAL\r\nWEATHER ALSO CAME IN WITH A T5.0  FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 100 KTS. GENERALLY...THE NEXT\r\nPHASE AFTER ONE OF THESE CYCLES IS INTENSIFICATION. \r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS 310/10. FRANCES CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND IS RIGHT ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT LIVED AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED DUE NORTH OF FRANCES\r\nMOVES EASTWARD AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THIS\r\nSHOULD TURN FRANCES BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.  ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS NOW AGREE THAT THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP\r\nACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC AFTER 48HR WILL\r\nALLOW FOR A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH TO EXTEND\r\nEAST-WEST FROM THE AZORES TO BERMUDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. \r\nTHE NHC MODEL SUITE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY\r\nTIME PERIODS THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE CONSENSUS MODEL IS\r\nALMOST UNCHANGED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLE FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL OUT TO 72 HOURS BUT GENTLY SHIFTS THE 4 AND 5 DAY\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS CLOSER TO THE GUNA POSITIONS.  THIS FORECAST IS\r\nALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET SOLUTION. \r\n \r\nFRANCES IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nINCREASING SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO KEEP FRANCES A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\nTHERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL FLUCTUATIONS...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY OVER THIS PERIOD OF TIME...BUT CATEGORY FOUR\r\nINTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY SOME TIME DURING THAT PERIOD...AND CATEGORY\r\n5 STRENGTH IS EVEN POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 16.3N  50.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 17.2N  51.7W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 18.3N  53.3W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 19.1N  54.9W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 19.8N  56.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 20.9N  60.9W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 22.1N  65.4W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 23.5N  70.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nFRANCES. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS FEW HOURS AGO AND CONVECTION\r\nIS NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE WINDS BUT\r\nTHE DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 100-KNOT WINDS AT THIS TIME.\r\nALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AT\r\nTHIS TIME...AND IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. \r\n\r\nTHE EXPECTED TURN MORE TO THE WEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND IN\r\nFACT GLOBAL AND THE GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTWARD TRACK\r\nSHOULD NOT BEGIN FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A STRONG AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE CREATING A PATTERN THAT WOULD FORCE THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WESTWARD TRACK. THE UK\r\nMODEL IS NOW CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE\r\nDANGEROUSLY WESTWARD JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE BAHAMAS\r\nDURING THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS\r\nAND THE UK MODEL SOLUTION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 17.0N  51.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N  52.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N  54.3W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N  56.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N  58.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 21.0N  63.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 22.0N  68.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N  72.4W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nBASED ON SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA THIS\r\nMORNING...IT APPEARS THAT FRANCES HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT NOW AND HAS INCREASED TO\r\nAT LEAST A 20 NMI DIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF T5.5...OR 102 KT FROM TAFB FOR THE PAST 18 HR...A 3-HR ODT\r\nAVERAGE OF T5.6...OR 105 KT...AND THE IMPROVED EYE APPEARANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESUME A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER SPEED LATER TODAY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS ON FRANCES TAKING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN BENDING MORE WESTWARD IN 48-72HR. HOWEVER\r\n...THE MODELS DIVERGE DUE TO THE WAY THEY HANDLE NOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nGASTON OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE\r\nCANADIAN MODELS LIFT GASTON SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HR...AND\r\nTHEN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 96 HR AND HAS GASTON OUT OF THE\r\nPICTURE BY 120 HR. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THEN BUILDS IN BETWEEN\r\nGASTON AND FRANCES...WHICH WOULD HELP TO KEEP FRANCES ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD TRACK. IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS LEAVE A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. COAST IN THE WAKE OF GASTON. THIS ALLOWS FRANCES TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY 96HR WELL EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK LEANS CLOSELY TOWARD THE GFS-UKMET-CANADIAN SOLUTION\r\nGIVEN THAT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME HIGHLY ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT FRANCES HAS COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AT\r\nLEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD RESUME SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. A\r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS ALSO DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH. THE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH ONLY WARM WATER...\r\nUP TO 29C SST...AHEAD OF FRANCES SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO\r\nREACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 17.4N  51.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.3N  53.3W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.3N  55.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 20.1N  57.4W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N  59.7W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 21.3N  64.6W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 22.0N  69.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  73.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MAINTAINING A 20 NMI\r\nDIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT BASED ON A\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0...OR 115 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT OF T5.9...OR 113 KT...A 2.5-HR AVERAGE ODT\r\nOF T6.0...AND A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER TO\r\nT6.5...OR 127 KT...SINCE THE 18Z SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE MADE. \r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE\r\nON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND APPEARS\r\nTO BE MAKING A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.\r\nMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC RUNNING TRACK ERRORS THROUGH 28/18Z ARE\r\n44...71...AND 104 NMI AT 24-...48-...AND 72-HR...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHESE ERRORS ARE HALF OUR AVERAGE ERRORS...AND ARE BETTER THAN ALL\r\nOF THE COMPUTER MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS. THEREFORE\r\n...WE HAVE A FAIR DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN OUR FORECAST TRACK...WHICH\r\nREMAINS BETWEEN THE GFS MODEL TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET MODEL TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN BY FAR THE WORSE PERFORMING\r\nMODEL WITH ITS STRONG RIGHT OF TRACK BIAS...SO IT WAS IGNORED FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE. WHILE OUR CURRENT FORECAST ERRORS ARE QUITE GOOD...\r\nTHERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER TIME PERIODS TO MAKE\r\nIT TOO EARLY TO TRY AND DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE FRANCES\r\nWILL MAKE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...NOW WOULD BE A GOOD TIME FOR EVERYONE\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S...THE BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS\r\nISLANDS TO CHECK THEIR HURRICANE PREPAREDNESS PLANS AND SUPPLIES.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...INCLUDING AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE\r\nNORTH. THE SSTS BETWEEN 62-68W LONGITUDE ARE NEAR 29C...SO AT LEAST\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT FRANCES COULD EVEN REACH NEAR-CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT A BETTER OPPORTUNITY WOULD BE\r\nAFTER 84 HOURS WHEN THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER NEAR-30C SSTS\r\nWHEN A 50-60 KT NORTHERLY WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS FORECAST BY THE GFS\r\n...UKMET...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF FRANCES...ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 17.9N  52.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.7N  53.9W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.4N  55.8W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N  58.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N  60.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.3N  65.4W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  70.5W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  75.5W   125 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR FRANCES ARE ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE LAST\r\nFORECAST CYCLE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES\r\nTO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nWITH THE CONTINUED SLOWER MOTION IN THE EARLY FORECAST\r\nPERIODS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST\r\nPOSITIONS.    \r\n \r\nFRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD \r\nREACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 18.3N  53.4W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.8N  54.5W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N  56.3W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N  58.6W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.1N  61.1W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.2N  66.3W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N  70.6W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 24.0N  74.0W   125 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING HURRICANE AND IF WE FAST FORWARDED\r\nBACK TO LAST YEAR I WOULD THINK I WAS LOOKING AT ISABEL.  INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES FOR FRANCES REMAIN NEAR 115 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. FRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES\r\nTO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECASTS OR REASONINGS.  MOST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON GRADUALLY BUILDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY PERIODS APPEARS\r\nTO BE HOW THEY HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ITS\r\nORIENTATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY\r\nPERIODS ARE JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE SSTS ARE NEAR 29C...AND ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD\r\nREACH CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 18.6N  54.1W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N  55.4W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  57.4W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 19.9N  59.8W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N  62.3W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N  67.3W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 22.8N  71.4W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W   125 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS IN STEADY STATE AND HAS A RATHER IMPRESSIVE\r\nREPRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A LARGE EYE. BECAUSE THERE\r\nIS LESS INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE...THE T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED A LITTLE BIT...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE\r\nAS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 115 KNOTS UNTIL DIRECT MEASUREMENTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE BECOME AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.  AT THIS POINT...FRANCES COULD\r\nEITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE OR COULD EXPERIENCE SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. NEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nAS AN INTENSE HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nAS THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING...FRANCES IS NOW MOVING\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280\r\nDEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE DEVELOPING\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY OCCURRING. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE BETWEEN THE WEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UK...CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS\r\nWHICH ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND MOVING THE HURRICANE DANGEROUSLY NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND\r\nACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. THE GFDL MODEL IS\r\nBEGINNING TO SHOW A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS TRACK WOULD BE LESS THREATENING FOR SOUTH\r\nFLORIDA AND THE KEYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 18.6N  54.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.8N  56.1W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N  58.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.0N  61.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N  63.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 21.8N  68.7W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N  72.6W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W   125 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST REACHED THE EYE OF FRANCES AND MEASURED\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 949 MB IN A 12 NMI EYE WITH FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 112 KNOTS. A DROP MEASURED 127 KNOTS AT THE 913 MB LEVEL\r\nBUT THIS NUMBER IS NOT VERY REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS.\r\nSINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE BIT LOWER.  ON SATELLITE...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN CONTINUES TO BE IMPRESSIVE BUT WITH A LESS DISTINCT EYE.\r\nFRANCES COULD EITHER INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE...BUT MOST LIKELY\r\n...THE HURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.\r\nNEVERTHERLESS..IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES\r\nAT 8 KNOTS.  AS FORECAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BEEN BUILDING\r\nAND EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS RIDGE WILL FORCE\r\nTHE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE TRACK A\r\nLITTLE MORE THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT\r\nINCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND THE UK MODELS WHICH PREVIOUSLY BROUGH THE\r\nHURRICANE TO NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE MODELS\r\nARE STILL BRINGING THE HURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO FLORIDA BUT AT A\r\nHIGHER LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEXT GLOBAL MODEL\r\nRUNS WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DATA GATHER FROM THE GPS DROPSONDES TO\r\nBE LAUNCH FROM THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET. WE WILL CAREFULLY\r\nMONITOR THE IMPACT ON THESE NEW OBSERVATIONS IN TONIGHT'S RUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 18.8N  55.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.1N  57.0W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 19.5N  59.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.0N  62.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N  64.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  69.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  73.0W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N  76.5W   125 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION WAS IN THE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL\r\nHOURS ENDING AT 23Z.  THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 954 MB...UP\r\nFROM 949 MB A FEW HOURS EARLIER.  954 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 108\r\nKT.  THE HIGHEST 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 118 KT AT A\r\nPOSITION ABOUT 9 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...90 PERCENT OF 118\r\nKT REDUCES TO A SURFACE WIND OF 106 KT.  THERE WERE SEVERAL GPS\r\nDROPSONDES NEAR THE EYEWALL.  THE HIGHEST SURFACE WIND DETERMINED\r\nFROM THESE DROPS WAS 107 KT USING APPROPRIATE REDUCTION TECHNIQUES.\r\nTHEREFORE THE MAXIMUM WIND IN FRANCES IS REDUCED FROM 115 TO 110 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND NEAR 110 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN REDUCES IT TO UNDER 100 KT AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL IS\r\nSIMILAR.  THE GFS AND UKMET ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT THESE MODELS\r\nARE NOT AS SKILLFUL AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS 110 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE\r\nGUIDANCE...REALIZING THAT OUR SKILL AT INTENSITY FORECASTING LEAVES\r\nSOMETHING TO BE DESIRED...ESPECIALLY AT LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/07.  THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE MODELS ARE IN\r\nFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS 50 TO\r\n100 N MI SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN COMES\r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 120 HOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS TEND TO\r\nCONVERGE ON THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO IT AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nNOAA HAS FLOWN A SYNOPTIC SCALE MISSION TONIGHT AND DATA FROM THIS\r\nMISSION IS BEING USED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.  THIS\r\nHOPEFULLY IMPROVED GUIDANCE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 18.9N  56.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 19.1N  58.2W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N  60.8W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 20.0N  63.4W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 20.8N  66.2W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N  71.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 24.5N  74.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N  77.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nMONITORING FRANCES INDICATES THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO\r\n958 MB AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 99 KT. \r\nTHIS WOULD SUPPORT AN INTENSITY 90 KT.  HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER ORGANIZED CYCLONE...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 102 KT FROM SAB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND FOR THE MOMENT THIS\r\nMAY BE GENEROUS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATES TWO WELL-DEFINED\r\nOUTER WIND MAXIMA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ABOUT 72 HR. \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...MOST LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE FRANCES BASICALLY WESTWARD\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FLOWN\r\nEARLIER TONIGHT SEEMS TO HAVE HELPED THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT...AS THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THEIR PREVIOUS TRACKS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS\r\nMUCH NORTHWARD MOTION EARLY ON AS INDICATED BY THE MODELS.  AFTER\r\n72 HR...THE TRACK IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MAIN DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CANADIAN MODEL STILL CALLS\r\nFOR A MORE WESTERLY TRACK TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS OR SOUTH FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFRANCES MAY HAVE BEEN SUFFERING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS\r\nRESULTED IN THE OBSERVED WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE\r\nSHEAR TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND BOTH SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL FORECAST STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE IF\r\nFRANCES GOT STRONGER THAN THE 115 KT OFFICIAL FORECAST OR THE 121\r\nKT GFDL FORECAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR AT 72 HR\r\nAND FORECASTS WEAKENING.  WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS UNTIL THERE IS A CLEARER SIGNAL.  ONE\r\nFLY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OINTMENT IS THE PRESENCE OF THE OUTER\r\nWIND MAXIMA...WHICH SUGGESTS CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR\r\nAND THROW OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 19.0N  57.3W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.1N  59.2W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 19.6N  62.0W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 20.2N  64.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 21.0N  67.4W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N  71.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 24.5N  75.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 27.0N  77.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON MISSION HAD 107 KT WINDS OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT EYEWALL.  THIS DOES NOT QUITE SUPPORT A MAXIMUM SURFACE\r\nWIND OF 105 KT....BUT ON THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...SO THE INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 105 KT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...\r\nAND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS AS WELL AS THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THEREFORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FRANCES HAS\r\nTHE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ABOUT\r\n275/11.  FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT WILL\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS.  HOW MUCH\r\nTHIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN IS CRITICAL FOR THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF\r\nTHIS HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST.  ONE CONCERN IS THAT THE GFDL MODEL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS GENERALLY BEEN SHIFTING MORE WESTWARD WITH EACH\r\nSUCCESSIVE RUN.\r\n \r\nIT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...\r\nESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT A\r\nPOINT AND FORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE\r\nERRORS OF SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 19.3N  58.7W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 19.4N  60.7W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 19.9N  63.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.6N  66.2W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 21.5N  68.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N  76.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  78.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 948 MB AND THERE WAS A FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL...700 MB...WIND OF 122 KT JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT.\r\nTHERE IS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN LOW.  THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE PROCESSES...SUCH AS THE CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALLS THAT WERE OBSERVED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AND ALSO SEEN\r\nIN TRMM AND SSM/I DATA.  HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY\r\nCONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD\r\nTHE NOAA AIRCRAFT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...275/12.  A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOME WEAKENING OF THIS RIDGE IS\r\nINDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE BAD NEWS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA IS THAT THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IN THE CURRENT MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 5 DAYS THAT COULD\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY WEAKEN THIS RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME\r\nSLOWING AND A SLIGHT BENDING OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...BUT THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT\r\nIN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nONCE AGAIN...IT IS EXTREMELY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS\r\nNOT A POINT...ESPECIALLY A HURRICANE AS LARGE AS FRANCES...AND\r\nFORECASTS AT THESE EXTENDED TIME RANGES CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF\r\nSEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 19.5N  60.0W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 19.7N  62.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 20.2N  64.8W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 21.0N  67.4W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N  70.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  74.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N  77.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N  80.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST REPORT FROM A NOAA RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATED THE PRESSURE\r\nHAD DECREASED TO 945 MB. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERALL. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN AT 110 KT.\r\n \r\nFRANCES REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE MOTION IS NOW 280/12.  A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WESTWARD TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FRANCES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS GASTON AND HERMINE EXIT\r\nTHE PICTURE.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE NHC MODELS ARE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THEY HAVE BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT THERE IS STILL\r\nENOUGH MODEL DIVERGENCE TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR ALL OF FLORIDA AND\r\nTHE BAHAMAS. THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE....THE\r\nGFS...MODELS BEND THE TRACK FRANCES SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS TOWARD NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND GEORGIA. THE UKMET...\r\nCANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE LATEST ETA MODEL RUN KEEP FRANCES ON A\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN THE LONG RANGE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN FORECAST\r\nTO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE TROUGH FORCAST TO DEVELOP\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF SUBSEQUENT MODEL\r\nRUNS DO NOT BEGIN TRENDING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE NEW 00Z\r\nMODEL RUNS SHOULD BE INTERESTING.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS FRANCES UP TO 130 KT IN 48 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...TIMING INNER-CORE\r\nFLUCTUATIONS LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST DAY OR SO IS IMPOSSIBLE...\r\nSO ONLY SLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 19.7N  61.4W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 20.1N  63.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 20.9N  66.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.8N  69.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  71.9W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 24.7N  75.3W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N  78.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  81.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FRANCES IS COMPLETING A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nREPORTS A 30-40 NM DIAMETER OUTER EYEWALL WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 121 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949\r\nMB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMAINS OF THE EARLIER INNER\r\nEYEWALL ARE STILL PRESENT.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOWS A WIND\r\nMAXIMA OUTSIDE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/13.  FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT\r\nTHERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS WHICH HAVE MAJOR\r\nIMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE FRANCES WILL END UP.  DATA FROM THE RECENT\r\nSYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION HAD SOME INTERESTING EFFECTS ON THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A LEFT OUTLIER MOST OF\r\nTHE TIME...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW A RIGHT\r\nOUTLIER...MOVING FRANCES NORTHWARD ALONG 77-78W AFTER 72 HR.  THE\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH HAS BEEN A RIGHT OUTLIER...IS NOW A LEFT OUTLIER\r\nCALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nHAVE BOTH SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR.  GIVEN THE\r\nLARGE CHANGES IN JUST ONE CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT\r\nCHANGE MUCH AT ALL...BASICALLY BEING AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  IT IS DOWN THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE UP TO 72 HR\r\nAND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nWHEN THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS FINALLY DONE...FRANCES SHOULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  IT WOULD NOT\r\nBE A SURPRISE TO SEE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\nALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE TO\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS...THE SHIPS...\r\nGFDL...AND GFS MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE\r\nAFTER ABOUT 48 HR.  ALSO...THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF OTHER\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES THAT CANNOT CURRENTLY BE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 19.9N  62.8W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 20.4N  65.0W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 21.3N  67.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.2N  70.2W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 23.2N  72.3W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 25.0N  75.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 26.5N  78.5W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  81.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING REPORTED A\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 138 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 950 MB FROM A DROP AND AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF\r\n944 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANCES HAS AN OUTSTANDING CLOUD\r\nPATTERN WITH A LARGE EYE...BANDING FEATURES AND EXCELLET OUTFLOW.\r\nTHE LARGE EYE CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED IN THE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO\r\nDOPPLER RADAR. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...FUTURE CHANGES IN INTENSITY\r\nWILL PROBABLY BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...A\r\nPROCESS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME\r\nIS TO FORECAST FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND KEEP THE HURRICANE\r\nAS A CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. DURING THE\r\nTHE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING BETWEEN THE\r\nWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIGDE.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES WITH THE DIFFERENT\r\nMODELS. CONSEQUENTLY...SOME MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE FARTHER WEST\r\nOR CLOSER TO THE U.S. COAST THAN OTHERS. OVERALL...THE TREND OF THE\r\nMODELS SINCE YESTERDAY IS TO TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nEARLIER AND NONE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE ECMWF\r\nBRING THE HURRICANE TO EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA OR THE KEYS. THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT IS PRODUCED BY THE GFS WHICH BARELY\r\nBRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS NORMAL FOR MODELS TO VARY FROM RUN TO RUN AND I\r\nWOULD RATHER WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST\r\nMORE THE RIGHT...IF NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 20.0N  64.0W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 20.4N  66.1W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.5N  68.7W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N  71.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N  73.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  79.0W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 30.5N  81.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ENTERED THE EYE OF FRANCES. A DROP\r\nMEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940 MB...AND AN EXTRAPOLATED\r\nPRESSURE OF 938 MB WITH A PEAK WIND OF 144 KNOTS AT 700 MB.  THE\r\nSTEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON BOARD OF THE\r\nNOAA P-3 PLANE JUST MEASURED 118 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS. HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nIMPROVED SINCE THIS MORNING...THE EYE REMAINS LARGE AND DISTINCT\r\nAND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nREACHED 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 120 KNOTS...MAKING FRANCES A SOLID CATEGORY FOUR ON\r\nTHE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY\r\nTHIS STRONG...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...AND THOSE FLUCTUATIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED IN\r\nPART BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. WE WILL DESCRIBE THEM AS THEY\r\nOCCUR SINCE THERE IS NO SKILL IN FORECASTING SUCH PROCESSES.\r\nNEVERTHERLESS...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.  AS INDICATED\r\nPREVIOUSLY... DURING THE THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nBE MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST STEERED BY A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY OF THE RIDGE VARIES\r\nWITH THE DIFFERENT MODELS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES IN TRACKS RANGING FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA\r\nNORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS....WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nWHICH...IN FACT...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TAKING INTO\r\nCONSIDERATION THE NEW NOGAPS AND GFDN RUNS. THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nUNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 20.5N  65.9W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 21.1N  68.2W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  71.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.7N  73.3W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N  75.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 26.6N  78.0W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 29.0N  81.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.1N  82.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nRECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS STABILIZED TO AROUND 939-940 MB...BASED ON THE 700 MB HEIGHT\r\nFALLS. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED ON THE LAST LEG WAS\r\n130 KT ...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 117-KT SURFACE WIND. A DROPSONDE\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ALSO REPORTED A 135-KT WIND AT ABOUT 600\r\nFT ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO COOLED AROUND THE\r\nEYE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR DATA...WHILE CONTRACTING DOWN TO ABOUT 20 NMI. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 120 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14. THE FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLEAR\r\nCUT THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREEING\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-CENTRAL BAHAMAS.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE AND DIVIDE INTO THREE DISTINCT TRACK\r\nPATTERNS. THE GFDL AND GFDN RACE FRANCES TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST\r\nOF SOUTH CAROLINA IN 96-120 HR...THE GFS...MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM...\r\nAND UKMET MODELS TAKE FRANCES MORE SLOWLY INTO EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA\r\nIN 96-120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS...LBAR..12Z ECMWF...AND THE ETA\r\nMODELS MOVE FRANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN ABOUT 72 HR. THE\r\n18Z GFDL MODEL ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. IF THE\r\nGFDN AND GFDL MODELS ARE IGNORED...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WILL BE THE EVENTUAL\r\nLANDFALL REGION. ONE DISTURBING PIECE OF INFORMATION IS THAT ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFDN...AGREE THAT FRANCES WILL\r\nSLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE GFS EVEN\r\nREDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO 4 KT IN 96 HR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS MAY BRIEFLY COLLAPSE AS FRANCES APPROACHES THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE DIFFERENCE IN\r\nTHE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEEP LOW OFF THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nU.S. COAST AS IT DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND HOW THE RIDGE\r\nAMPLIFIES ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN RESPONSE TO THAT DIGGING\r\nLOW/TROUGH. THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INITIALIZING TOO WEAK OF\r\nA RIDGE AROUND BERMUDA...SO LITTLE WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE\r\nGFDL/GFDN SOLUTIONS. A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WAS PLACED IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AFTER 72-96 HR TO INDICATE SOME BUILDING OF THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES AT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE\r\nLEFT OF TRACK...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS\r\nFRANCES AT 124 KT IN 12-24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENS THE HURRICANE DOWN\r\nTO 112 KT IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS WEAKENING IS CAUSED BY\r\n'SELF-INFLICTED' VERTICAL SHEAR SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SOUTH OF THE GFS TRACK...PLACING THE HURRICANECENTER IN STRONG\r\nCYCLONIC WESTERLY OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GFS MODEL STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 20.8N  67.0W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 21.7N  69.1W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N  71.4W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N  73.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 25.2N  75.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 26.8N  78.3W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  81.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 31.0N  82.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM THE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nMONITORING FRANCES SHOW MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB OF 123\r\nKT...DOWN A LITTLE FROM THE EARLIER FLIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 935 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE WSR-88D AT SAN\r\nJUAN SHOWS THAT FRANCES HAS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA SHOWS THREE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA.  INDEED...ON THE LATEST\r\nPASS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THE HIGHEST WIND WAS IN THE\r\nMAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 285/15.  FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 72 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nHURRICANE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF\r\nTHE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A\r\nUNREALISTIC LOOKING MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 72 HR IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND IS ON THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS\r\nDIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTH OF\r\nFRANCES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOR THAT TIME IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR AS THE UKMET WHICH MARCHES FRANCES\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 36-48\r\nHR...SO FRANCES SHOULD REMAIN STRONG.  A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED AT 72 HR BASED ON LAND INTERACTION AND SOME POSSIBLE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR ON INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF FRANCES AND CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES...BOTH OF\r\nWHICH ARE DIFFICULT AT BEST TO TIME.  GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE...CHANGES IN INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY\r\nSLOW TO OCCUR.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 21.2N  68.5W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N  70.6W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.2N  72.9W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 24.3N  74.8W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 25.5N  76.6W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 28.5N  81.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  84.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 937 MB\r\nA FEW HOURS AGO AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE LATER\r\nTODAY. FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE AN OUTSTANDING PRESENTATION ON\r\nSATELLITE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A DISTINCT EYE. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS.  AT THIS POINT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY SHIPS\r\nMODEL...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY\r\nFLUCTUATIONS DURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. NEVERTHERLESS...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE U.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN...CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nFRANCES REMAINS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT\r\n14 KNOTS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF FRANCES\r\nIS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT TO WEAKEN. THIS WOULD ALLOW THE\r\nHURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE\r\nNEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITHIN 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nWHICH ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER. THIS MAY\r\nREQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST\r\nTHIS EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 21.7N  69.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.6N  71.8W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N  74.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N  76.0W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 26.0N  77.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  80.0W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  82.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.6N  84.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FLEW AGAIN IN THE EYE OF FRANCES\r\nAND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 938 MB. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED BUT THE PLANE MEASURED 131 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT\r\nMOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL GO THROUGH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS\r\nDURING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. IF FACT...THE 1719Z RECON FIX\r\nREPORTED A DOUBLE EYEWALL SUGGESTING THAT ANOTHER OF THESE\r\nPROCESSES IS TAKING PLACE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE\r\nU.S. COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON\r\nBOARD THE NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT WERE USED TO DECREASE THE WIND RADII\r\nESTIMATES IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BECAUSE THE NW WIND RADII ARE\r\nSMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST CAN BE DELAYED A LITTLE.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOW FAR WEST\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL GO WILL DEPEND ON THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND THAT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THE GFS AND THE GFDL\r\nCONSISTENTLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nEARLIER THAN ANY OTHER MODELS. BECAUSE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS ARE\r\nVERY RELIABLE...I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK A LITTLE BIT TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND EAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nUNIVERSITY SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE CONU CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTS\r\nOF THE AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...GFDN...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS...BRING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS\r\nFLORIDA. THEREFORE...I AM NOT READY TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD SHIFT AT\r\nTHIS TIME AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE\r\nFSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 22.0N  71.0W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.1N  73.0W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.3N  74.9W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.4N  76.7W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 26.5N  78.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.0N  80.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 32.5N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n \r\nRECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD\r\nDECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154\r\nKT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT\r\nSURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT\r\n120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE\r\nWOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130\r\nHAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE\r\nSONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.\r\nTHE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z\r\nSURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO\r\nLOW.  HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nHIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF\r\nFRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH\r\nFLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...\r\nTHIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR\r\nEVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO...00Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS\r\nHAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST...WHILE THE\r\n18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK...AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO\r\nLOW...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL\r\nHAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z\r\nADVISORY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF FRANCES...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL\r\nTRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.\r\n\r\nFRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR AND WITHIN THE\r\nBAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN IN 24-48 HOURS. GIVEN THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.\r\nALSO...THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY...THAT\r\nFRANCES HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH AND INGESTING OVER THE PAST 5\r\nDAYS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 PERCENT IN 36-60HR...\r\nWHICH MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 22.6N  72.0W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N  73.7W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 24.7N  75.6W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 25.8N  77.3W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 26.6N  78.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  81.0W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  83.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 33.5N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":34,"Date":"2004-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING FRANCES\r\nREPORTS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 936 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 138 KT AT 700 MB.  A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL\r\nREPORTED WINDS INDICATING SURFACE WINDS NEAR 125 KT...AND THAT IS\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH 127 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA.   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS SINCE\r\n06Z...ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT THIS CONVECTION IS RATHER ASYMMETRIC.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  FRANCES CONTINUES ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A FEATURE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS ARE HAVING A PROBLEM FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF.  THE\r\nSYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY SEEMS TO HAVE HAD LITTLE\r\nEFFECT ON THE MODELS...AS THE GFS AND GFDL STILL WANT TO TURN\r\nFRANCES MORE NORTHWARD....WHILE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STILL FORECAST\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nGIVEN THIS LACK OF CHANGE...THE ONLY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nDURING THE FIRST 72 HR IS BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND CURRENT\r\nMOTION...WITH THIS PART OF THE TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nNOGAPS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS FORECASTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL\r\nIN SOUTHEAST OR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN JUST OVER 48 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...PEOPLE SHOULD NOT FOCUS TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT TRACK...\r\nAS SMALL CHANGES IN DIRECTION COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE\r\nIN THE LANDFALL LOCATION.\r\n\r\nFRANCES CONTINUES TO SHOW IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE\r\nDECREASING A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THE INTENSITY OF\r\nFRANCES CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES. \r\nSINCE THESE ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR 125 KT INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  GIVEN THE CURRENT CLOUD\r\nTOP COOLING...FRANCES COULD REACH 130-135 KT INTENSITY ON THE UP\r\nSIDE OF THE CURRENT CYCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE HURRICANE\r\nWATCH TO BE EXTENDED SOUTHWARD INTO THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS.  A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AT\r\nTHIS TIME AS THE 24 HR FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL STORM WINDS\r\nOFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE LIKELY ON THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 22.9N  73.0W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 23.6N  74.4W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 24.6N  76.3W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 25.6N  78.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 26.6N  79.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  84.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 33.5N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":35,"Date":"2004-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE REMAINS VERY WELL-ORGANIZED AND SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nDEPICT A DISTINCT EYE AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 127 KNOTS AND THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASUREMENTS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 125\r\nKNOTS.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE\r\nINTENSITY SOON. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL BUT FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE MOST INTERESTING ASPECT THIS MORNING IS THAT THE NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE\r\nSHIFTED THEIR TRACKS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND ARE NOW IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOW THAT THE RELIABLE\r\nGFS AND GFDL ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER. FRANCES IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING THE\r\nRIDGE STRONG AND LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A\r\nLARGE WIND FIELD AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nREACH THE COAST MUCH EARLIER THAN THE EYE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO ALLOW\r\nSUFFICIENT TIME FOR PREPARATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 23.4N  73.9W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 24.3N  75.4W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N  77.2W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.4N  78.5W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  79.7W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":36,"Date":"2004-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH FRANCES CONTINUES TO HAVE A GOOD SATELLITE REPRESENTATION\r\n... DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 948 MB AND THE EYEWALL IS CURRENTLY\r\nDISRUPTED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 120 KNOTS. THIS\r\nIS PROBABLY A MINOR FLUCTUATION ASSOCIATED WITH INNER CORE\r\nPROCESSES AND FRANCES COULD EASILY RE-INTENSIFY. NEVERTHELESS...\r\nFRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE OVERALL\r\nMOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS.  THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...FORCING FRANCES\r\nTO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 48 HOURS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND UNTIL LANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA\r\nEAST COAST. ALL TRACK MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE NOW\r\nIN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.\r\nDESPITE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT THE EXACT\r\nLOCATION OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST THIS FAR IN\r\nADVANCE.\r\n \r\nAT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT\r\nNECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 24.1N  74.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 24.9N  76.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 26.0N  77.8W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.7N  80.5W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  83.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 34.5N  87.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":37,"Date":"2004-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS WEAKENED SOME THIS EVENING BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE\r\nREPORTS AND SATELLITE DATA. THE INTENSITY IS BEING DECREASED TO 110\r\nKT BASED ON 948-950 MB PRESSURE REPORTS. SINCE THE LAST RECON\r\nREPORTS...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND\r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME CIRCULAR AND TOPS HAVE COOLED. THUS...THIS MAY\r\nONLY BE A TEMPORARY WEAKENING PHASE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 300/09. UNLIKE THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY CONVERGENT ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS...WITH\r\nA GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nMADE A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...BUT THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE\r\nMODELS HAVING TOO WEAK OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 18Z UPPER-AIR AND\r\nSYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE A STRONGER 700-400\r\nRIDGE BY ABOUT 20 METERS. A SMALL HIGH PRESSURE CELL THAT WAS NEAR\r\n30N 75W THIS TIME LAST NIGHT HAS NOW MOVED WESTWARD TO NEAR\r\nJACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF FRANCES...AND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THIS WRAPAROUND-TYPE RIDGE PATTERN IS INDICATIVE OF\r\nA SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...AND ALL OF THE MODELS APPEAR TO\r\nHAVE PICKED UP REASONABLY WELL ON THIS FEATURE. UNFORTUNATELY...\r\nTHAT TYPE OF RIDGE PATTERN WITH FORWARD SPEEDS AS LOW AS 6-8 KT\r\nALSO FAVORS ERRATIC MOTION AND WOBBLES ALONG THE TRACK. THE SLOW\r\nFORWARD SPEED WILL ALSO PROLONG ADVERSE AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE DROPSONDE SURVEILLANCE WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT THE 300 MB\r\nWIND FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND IS UNDERCUTTING THE VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER. THIS HAS LIKELY BEEN DISRUPTING THE EYE\r\nSINCE THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS BEEN TRYING TO PUSH\r\nFRANCES WESTWARD. THIS MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS NOT\r\nFORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ABATE UNTIL ABOUT 24-26 HOURS. AT THAT\r\nTIME...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR AS FRANCES PASSES SLOWLY OVER\r\nTHE VERY WARM GULFSTREAM.\r\n \r\nAT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT\r\nNECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 24.5N  75.4W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 25.2N  76.5W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 26.1N  77.9W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 26.8N  79.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N  80.6W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.4N  83.0W    45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 31.5N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":38,"Date":"2004-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  WHILE IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE\r\nCOLD CONVECTIVE TOPS OVER THE CENTER...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AND BAHAMA RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE TOPS ARE COMING FROM\r\nEYEWALL FRAGMENTS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 954 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ON THE LAST MISSION WERE 98 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 105 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS THE AIRCRAFT WINDS...INCLUDING\r\nDROPSONDES...DO NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORT THIS INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8.  FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nCOMPLEX RIDGE THAT HAS ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTER EAST OF FRANCES AND\r\nANOTHER TO THE NORTH.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE\r\nNORTH OF FRANCES THROUGH 72 HR AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER 72 HR...HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FRANCES WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY SOME TURN\r\nTOWARD THE LEFT AND SLOWER MOTION FROM 36-48 HR...THEN FASTER\r\nMOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND AND SOME SPREAD BETWEEN A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A NORTHWARD TURN THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE GFS AND GFDL...WHICH SLOW FRANCES TO 4 KT JUST\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE FORECAST SLOW\r\nFORWARD SPEED WILL PROLONG THE ADVERSE AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH FRANCES.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.  ON ONE SIDE...THE\r\nHURRICANE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME VERY SPREAD OUT AS THE CENTRAL CORE\r\nWEAKENS...AND IT IS OFTEN DIFFICULT FOR THIS TYPE OF SPREAD OUT\r\nSYSTEM TO RE-CONSOLIDATE.  ALSO...SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS\r\nFRANCES.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL JUST\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE STORM HAS A GOOD CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE AND IS STILL GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SCENARIO THAT FRANCES WILL GRADUALLY\r\nRE-CONSOLIDATE BEFORE LANDFALL AND RE-GAIN SOME STRENGTH.  AN\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT FRANCES DOES NOT RE-INTENSIFY OR\r\nPERHAPS WEAKENS MORE AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. \r\nTHIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nTHE 64 AND 50 KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED IN THE NW QUADRANT BASED\r\nON AIRCRAFT DATA...WHICH REPORTED A 95 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND 90 NM\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nAT THIS TIME...CHANGES IN THE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE NOT\r\nNECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 24.9N  76.0W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 25.7N  77.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 26.4N  78.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 27.1N  79.5W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.6N  80.7W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  83.0W    45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 32.0N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 35.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":39,"Date":"2004-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OR EYEWALL\r\nOF FRANCES HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS RISEN TO 959 MB. IN ADDITION...SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWINDS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE\r\nDISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS MEANS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nWEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...FRANCES IS STILL A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THERE IS PLENTY\r\nOF TIME...ABOUT 36 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...FOR CHANGES IN THE INNER\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE TO OCCUR...WHILE THE HURRICANE MOVES\r\nOVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. THIS COULD EASILY LEAD TO\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nCALLS FOR A 100-KNOT HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST  TO REMAIN IN PLACE\r\nFORCING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...BUT BECAUSE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN ON ITS WAY TO FLORIDA. THIS COULD DELAY THE\r\nLANDFALL A FEW MORE HOURS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING\r\nTHE HURRICANE OVER FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 25.5N  76.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 26.3N  77.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  79.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  81.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  83.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 33.5N  85.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 38.0N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":40,"Date":"2004-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT FRANCES\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nREMAINS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100\r\nKNOTS BUT...BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT...THE WIND FIELD APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING A LITTLE BIT.\r\nTHIS NECESSITATES EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD\r\nALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.  THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL...WHILE MOVING OVER WATER.  ALTHOUGH NONE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STREGTHENING...THERE IS A SMALL\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR FRANCES TO RE-INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT AS IT PASSES OVER\r\nTHE GULF STREAM AND APPROACHES THE FLORIDA COAST.\r\n \r\nAS ANTICIPATED...THE HURRICANE IS MOVING RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE\r\nUSUAL WOBBLES. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAT ABOUT 7 KNOTS AND A TRACK BETWEEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BECAUSE NEITHER THE STEERING NOR THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAVE CHANGED..THERE IS NO POINT TO DISCUSS IT AGAIN.\r\nTHE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FRANCES...A POWERFUL HURRICANE...IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE TIMING\r\nAND LOCATION OF LANDFALL CAN NOT BE SPECIFIED EXACTLY.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 25.9N  77.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 26.5N  78.4W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.4N  80.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 31.1N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 35.1N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 40.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":41,"Date":"2004-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR...SATELLITE...RECON DATA...AND NUMEROUS SURFACE REPORTS FROM\r\nHAM RADIO OPERATORS...SURFACE STATIONS...AND SHIPS IN AND AROUND\r\nTHE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST\r\nINDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE 18Z ADVISORY. HOWEVER\r\n...THE SURFACE PRESSURE IN THE EYE HAS NOT CHANGED FROM 959-960 MB\r\nSINCE ABOUT 22Z. BRIEF BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN\r\nDEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WHICH HAVE BEEN HELPING TO\r\nMAINTAIN A 90-KT INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO 295/05. DROPSONDE DATA AND 18Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE WRAPAROUND MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FRANCES HAS NOT MOVED...WITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED OVER\r\nSOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND RIDGES EXTENDING EASTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFROM THE HIGH FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS HAS TRAPPED FRANCES\r\nIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LAST FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO ERODE SLOWLY EASTWARD\r\nAND ALLOW FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72\r\nHOURS. IT IS INTERESTING TO POINT OUT THAT THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS\r\nTHAT PREVIOUSLY FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAD BEEN THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL SUITE ARE NOW THE LEFTMOST MODELS...AND TAKE FRANCES ACROSS\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nSOME WESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN 300-250 MB HAVE BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER. THIS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR\r\nPATTERN...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...HAS LIKELY\r\nLED TO THE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE GFS-ETA-GFDL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR PATTERN TO WEAKEN OR DISAPPEAR IN 18-24\r\nHOURS...AT ABOUT THE TIME FRANCES IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE WARMER\r\nGULFSTREAM. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ALREADY EXPANDED AND LARGE INNER\r\nCORE WIND FIELD...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE FRANCES IS A SLOW MOVING HURRICANE...IT COULD BRING\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 26.1N  77.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N  78.6W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  79.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 27.6N  81.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 28.7N  83.1W    35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 31.9N  86.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 40.0N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":42,"Date":"2004-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES APPEARS TO BE IN A STEADY STATE...WITH CENTRAL PRESSURES\r\nREMAINING NEAR 960 MB. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 97 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR 03Z REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT. BASED\r\nON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT...ALTHOUGH THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION HAS PERHAPS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LESSENING OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS...AND SO THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...PARTICULARLY IF THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nINCREASES A BIT.  FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE THRESHOLD\r\nOF CATEGORY TWO/THREE UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS\r\nIS EXPECTED TO NUDGE FRANCES BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AFTER 24 HOURS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...AND\r\nIS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 26.6N  78.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  78.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N  80.3W    95 KT...NEAR FL COASTLINE\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 28.2N  82.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  84.0W    45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 32.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 35.5N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 39.5N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":43,"Date":"2004-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nMIAMI WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THAT FRANCES HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE EYE OF\r\nABOUT 70 NMI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND RECON SUGGESTS THAT AN\r\nEYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 90\r\nKNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 18 MORE HOURS OVER\r\nWARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nRADAR AND RECON INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE\r\nWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE\r\nNORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nBETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS\r\nIS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONSISTENTLY HAS FORECAST \r\nTHE HURRICANE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE AND\r\nIS MOVING SLOWLY. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH OF THE CENTER WILL\r\nEXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. IN\r\nADDITION...THIS HURRICANE COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS\r\nPATH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 26.9N  78.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.3N  79.5W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  81.2W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 28.5N  83.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N  85.0W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 32.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 34.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 39.6N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":44,"Date":"2004-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nMIAMI WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LARGE EYE ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nFRANCES AND SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A TREND TOWARD INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...RECON DATA INDICATE THAT BOTH MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE AND WINDS HAVE REMAINED STEADY. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nCONTINUES AT 90 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nOVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFRANCES HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND POUNDING GRAND BAHAMA FOR THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING\r\nOR MODEL GUIDANCE...FRANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY\r\nBETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING\r\nTHAT FRANCES DOES NOT HESITATE AGAIN...THE STRONGEST WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE CORE WILL\r\nREACH THE COAST SOON AND CONTINUE VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTARD ACROSS FLORIDA. AFTER WEAKENING OVER\r\nLAND...FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS WHERE IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE.\r\nSLOW MOVING FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH\r\nOF THE CENTER WILL EXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD\r\nOF TIME. IN ADDITION...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 26.9N  79.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 27.2N  80.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 27.8N  81.9W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  84.0W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N  86.0W    60 KT...MOVING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 35.7N  88.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 41.0N  85.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":45,"Date":"2004-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nU.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 960 MB.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR IMAGERY WITH AN WELL DEFINED EYEWALL ABOUT 45 N MI ACROSS. \r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL LOOKED A LITTLE RAGGED FOR A\r\nWHILE BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  SO CONDITIONS STILL\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE SEVERAL OR MORE\r\nHOURS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM WATERS\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/04.  THE PRIMARY GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 12 HOURS AT 5 TO 7 KT\r\nWHICH SHOULD MOVE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND IN 12 HOURS. \r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ALREADY MOVED OVER THE\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY TO MARTIN\r\nCOUNTY.  THEREAFTER THE STEERING RIDGE SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE\r\nWHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED WILL BE WEAKENED BY\r\nAN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  ALL MODELS\r\nSHOW A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN SPREAD\r\nOUT A LOT AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS SHOW A CONTINUED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A RECURVATURE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS OF THE THESE MODELS AND IS ALSO\r\nCLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 HOURS.  THE SLOW MOTION SHOULD\r\nCAUSE FRANCES TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLE OVER LAND AND IT IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED THAT FRANCES WILL REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE\r\nGULF.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 27.1N  79.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 27.3N  80.6W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 28.3N  82.3W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N  84.1W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 30.7N  85.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 33.2N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 36.0N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 40.5N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":46,"Date":"2004-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA WEST\r\nOF STUART. THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 MB RIGHT ALONG THE\r\nCOAST. SINCE THAT OSERVATION...A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 963 MB WAS\r\nREPORTED BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM TOWER AT PORT\r\nSALERNO FLORIDA. DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT ABOUT 5000 FEET HAVE ALSO\r\nDECREASED TO AROUND 105 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASED TO 85 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/07. A SOLID RIDGE REMAINS TO THE\r\nWEST THROUGH NORTH OF FRANCES. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN\r\nPLCCE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE WOBBLES TO THE\r\nWEST AND NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...AND EVEN A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nRIDGE...ALLOWING FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD\r\nBY 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY 96-120 HOURS...FRANCES MAY\r\nMERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF FRANCES BACK OVER THE VERY\r\nWARM WATER OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\nALTHOUGH FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND...THE LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE\r\nSURFACE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING BY 36\r\nHOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nBY 36 HOURS IF IT TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND REMAINS OVER THE\r\nWARM GULF OF MEXICO LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 27.2N  80.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 27.9N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 28.8N  83.6W    50 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 29.9N  84.8W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N  85.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 34.0N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 37.5N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 42.0N  80.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frances","Adv":47,"Date":"2004-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE\r\nCENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND\r\nFAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN PRACTICALLY ALL QUADRANTS. IN FACT...\r\nGRAND BAHAMA IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE...AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN FEEDER BANDS OVER\r\nTHE FLORIDA KEYS.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE\r\nWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THEN EMERGE OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD THEN\r\nREGAIN HURRICANE STATUS ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF\r\nOF MEXICO COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 27.7N  81.2W    80 KT   INLAND \r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.2N  82.3W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  83.9W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 30.3N  85.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 32.0N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 38.5N  82.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 42.0N  79.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":48,"Date":"2004-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE\r\nCENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE\r\nREMAINS QUITE LOW...975 MB... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASED TO 60 KNOTS. FRANCES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE TONIGHT. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS\r\nMAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SHOULD BE\r\nOVER WATER FOR 12 HOURS OR SO...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS\r\nAGAIN BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 28.0N  82.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 28.5N  83.5W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 29.7N  85.0W    65 KT...MOVING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 39.5N  81.5W    10 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":49,"Date":"2004-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS MAINTAINING WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE AREA.  A 56-KT SUSTAINED\r\nWIND OBSERVATION FROM THE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN AT 22Z SUGGESTS THAT\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS MAY STILL BE NEAR 55 KT.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nALSO STAYED RATHER LOW AND IS ESTIMATED AT 976 MB BASED ON A 977.7\r\nMB OBSERVATION NEAR TAMPA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 BASED ON RADAR AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT\r\nON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD SPEED\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES ERODES THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF FRANCES.  ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWS\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS AS THE STORM IS CAUGHT UP AND ABSORBED WITHIN THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NEAR THE COAST JUST NORTH OF TAMPA.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MOVES FRANCES OVER THE WATER OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ON\r\nMONDAY AND THEN INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 24 HOURS.\r\nTHERE IS NOT A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUPPORT FOR FRANCES REACHING\r\nHURRICANE FORCE OVER THE WATER...BUT THE OFFICAL FORECAST IS TO 65\r\nKT IN 24 HOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 28.3N  82.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.8N  83.7W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 30.0N  85.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 31.6N  85.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 33.0N  85.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 37.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  79.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":50,"Date":"2004-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n \r\nNOW THAT FRANCES HAS MOVED OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY INCREASED NEAR\r\nTHE TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST\r\nRECON REPORT AT AROUND 05Z INDICATED A RAGGED EYE WAS TRYING TO\r\nFORM...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM\r\nTALLAHASSEE AND TAMPA. THE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nCONVERSIONS AND A DROPSONDE REPORT TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 BASED ON RADAR AND RECON\r\nOBSERVATIONS.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRANCES\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG 32N LATITUDE.\r\nTHE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IN THE MDOELS IS HOW SHARP OF A TURN FRANCES\r\nWILL MAKE UPON REACHING 32N. THE GFS APPEARS TO MAKE TOO SHARP OF A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TURN GIVEN THE CURRENT LARGE DIAMETER OF FRANCES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS\r\nCLOSE THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS BACK OVER WARM WATER...SOME\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 83-84F\r\nAND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE. FRANCES COULD\r\nREACH MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST AS IT MAKES\r\nLANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE GIVEN THE\r\nTIGHTER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED\r\nAND THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...WHICH IS\r\nTYPICAL OF A 75-KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 28.7N  83.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 29.9N  84.8W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 31.2N  85.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 32.4N  85.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 33.9N  85.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 37.8N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 42.5N  78.0W    20 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":51,"Date":"2004-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR\r\nINDICATE THAT FRACNES HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE AND STILL\r\nCONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION WITHOUT AN INNER CORE. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS...BUT IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO INCREASE 10 MORE KNOTS AND BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN KEPT FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  \r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 7\r\nKNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LARGE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. FRANCES SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST UNTIL\r\nABSORBED A FRONT IN 96 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nFRANCES IS A LARGE CYCLONE AND WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 29.5N  84.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  84.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 32.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 33.5N  85.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 40.0N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frances","Adv":52,"Date":"2004-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING INLAND. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS MAINLY OVER WATER OR\r\nALONG THE COAST. WEAKENING OVER LAND IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nFRANCES IS EXPECTED CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK...\r\nABOUT 8 TO 10 KNOTS...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG ITS PATH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 30.6N  84.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 33.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 34.5N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 40.5N  80.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frances","Adv":53,"Date":"2004-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR...SURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA PLACE THE CENTER OVER\r\nSOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND MOVING 340/10.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW A SLOW...LESS THAN 10 KT...MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST FOR 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SOME ACCELERATION TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THIS TRACK IS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nA MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BEING ERODED TO THE NORTH OF FRANCES.  BY\r\n72 HOURS...FRANCES SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE\r\nWESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 30 KT AND FRANCES IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE ONLY HIGHER VALUES IN THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS WERE ST AUGUSTINE C-MAN AT 01Z WITH 33 KT AT 16.5 M\r\nELEVATION AND FROM A SHIP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST AT 00Z WITH 35 KT. \r\nTHERE IS STILL A SUBSTANTIAL BANDING FEATURE FROM NORTH THROUGH\r\nEAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS RISING\r\nVERY SLOWLY...NOW ESTIMATED AT 985 MB.  IT IS LIKELY THAT WINDS\r\nWILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OVER A\r\nLARGE AREA AS THE BANDING FEATURE ROTATES AROUND THE DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE NEXT PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 31.3N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 32.3N  84.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 33.7N  85.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 37.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  79.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATONS...ALONG WITH WSR-88D DATA FROM\r\nCHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA AND WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA...INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OFF THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DEVELOPED INTO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE QUITE WEAK. HOWEVER...A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF TD-7\r\nIS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nU.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST\r\nAND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD. BY\r\n96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AND\r\nCARRIED OUT TO SEA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO POINT OUT THAT WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IS SHOWING\r\nGOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THUS...\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY 24\r\nHR AND REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT AT LANDFALL.  THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT STAYS\r\nOFFSHORE LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 31.6N  78.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 31.5N  78.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  79.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 32.8N  80.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 35.1N  77.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 39.0N  74.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 42.0N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KT. \r\nHOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER SYMMETRIC WITH SOME BANDING AND\r\nA LATELY INCREASING BUT NOT TOO WELL ORGANIZED AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS FOR THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 40 KT IN 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE\r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND.  THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER\r\nTHAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS THE WINDS TO 52 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR\r\nON THE CHARLESTON OR WILMINGTON RADARS.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE AT 00Z IS AN UNCERTAIN 150/02 AND AN UNCERTAIN 180/02 AT\r\n03Z.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A\r\nCONTINUED VERY SLOW MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SYSTEM\r\nGRADUALLY TURNS WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD IN\r\nCONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS INDICATED AFTER 48\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GENERAL SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT THE LANDFALL TIMING IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER AND SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 31.3N  78.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 31.2N  78.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 31.6N  78.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 32.7N  79.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 33.8N  78.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 36.0N  77.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 39.0N  72.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 42.0N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM CHARLESTON SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER IN A CYCLONIC CURVED BAND. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n2.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30\r\nKNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THEREFORE...THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY FORCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND STEER THE CYCLONE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE\r\nEXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 31.2N  78.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 31.3N  78.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  79.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 32.2N  79.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 34.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 39.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 42.5N  60.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n\r\nMORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSEVEN HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH A CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS THUS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GASTON WITH 35 KT\r\nWINDS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED\r\nTO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/2.  STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE CURRENT WEAK.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A\r\nRIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE STORM...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED IN ABOUT 36-48 HR BY\r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN ACCELERATION.  GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THE DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD\r\nON THE SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...\r\nAND THEN SOMEWHAT SLOWER THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER GASTON AT THIS TIME...AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nLIGHT.  THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL...\r\nWITH THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF 50 KT BEING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nSTRONGER SHIPS AND THE WEAKER GFDL.  GASTON SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS\r\nFOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AT THIS TIME.  DUE TO THE RELATIVELY\r\nSLOW MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY\r\nRAINS ALONG THE TRACK OF GASTON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 31.4N  78.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  78.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 32.1N  79.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 32.8N  79.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 33.9N  79.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 36.0N  76.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 40.0N  68.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 42.5N  59.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT GASTON IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nMEASURED 59 KT WINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...WHICH WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...IS NOW COVERED BY A NEW BURST\r\nOF CONVECTION...AND THE CHARLESTON WSR-88D SHOWS A GOOD CURVED BAND\r\nPATTERN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45\r\nKT...AND THIS MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/3.  STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE CURRENTLY WEAK.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nRIDGE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE STORM...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN AFTER 24 HR.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED IN ABOUT 36-48 HR BY\r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN ACCELERATION.  GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THE DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD\r\nON THE SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HR.\r\n \r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER GASTON AT THIS TIME...AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nLIGHT.  THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL LANDFALL...\r\nWITH THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF 60 KT BEING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nSTRONGER SHIPS AND THE WEAKER GFDL.  GASTON SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT GASTON\r\nCOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nCOAST ON SUNDAY...AND THIS REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...THERE IS\r\nA POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE TRACK OF GASTON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 31.4N  78.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 31.8N  79.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 32.7N  79.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 33.7N  79.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 34.9N  78.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 37.5N  74.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 41.0N  66.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 43.0N  55.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n\r\nA U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 60 KT\r\nWINDS AT 1500 FT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND\r\nMEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB AND ALSO REPORTED A 35 N MI\r\nDIAMETER EYE WITH SOME OPEN AREAS.  BOTH CHARLESTON AND WILMINGTON\r\nRADARS SHOW AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE EXCEPT OPEN TO THE SOUTH.  THE WIND\r\nSPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE ABOVE.  WITH LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING\r\nGASTON TO ABOUT 65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/03 BASED ON RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE \r\nFIXES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE SAME SCENARIO OF A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN ADVANCING\r\nSHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER...\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO FASTER IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nRECON OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE RADIUS OF 35 KT WINDS IS ONLY ABOUT\r\n50 N MI OR LESS IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE RADII EAST OF THE CENTER ARE\r\nFORECAST TO EXPAND TO 75 N MI AS GASTON MOVES NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 31.7N  79.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 32.3N  79.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 33.6N  79.7W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.1N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 36.7N  77.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  70.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 45.0N  59.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 47.0N  46.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GASTON IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB\r\nAND AFWA WERE 55 KT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE NWS/CHARLESTON RADAR\r\nSHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL...BUT ONLY A\r\nMODEST WARM SPOT IS APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BASED\r\nON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60\r\nKT.  I SEE NOTHING TO PREVENT GASTON FROM REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN THE HOURS REMAINING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS 65 KT AT 12 HOURS...GASTON SHOULD ALREADY\r\nBE INLAND BY THAT TIME.  I SUSPECT THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE A LITTLE HIGHER...PERHAPS AROUND 70 KT. \r\n\r\nGASTON HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NOW 350/6. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK TODAY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nTRENDED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE FASTER NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION ALSO SUGGESTS THAT GASTON MAY PENETRATE FARTHER INLAND. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GASTON SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED IN THE\r\nAPPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 32.5N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 33.5N  79.6W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 35.0N  79.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 36.7N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  75.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 43.0N  66.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nGASTON MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF MCCLELLANVILLE SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nAROUND 14Z.  WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATED THAT IT WAS JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.  THE SYSTEM WOULD VERY LIKELY HAVE\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IF IT HAD A FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER.  THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...BUT IT\r\nSTILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND AN\r\nISOLATED TORNADO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NORTH AT 7 KT.  A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT...WITH\r\nACCELERATION...IS FORECAST AS GASTON BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE GREAT LAKES.  BY 72 HOURS GASTON SHOULD HAVE LOST TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...AND IT IS EXPECTED BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 33.2N  79.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 34.3N  79.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 35.9N  78.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 37.7N  77.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 39.8N  74.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 44.5N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n\r\nGASTON CONTINUES ITS TREK INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND IT SHOULD\r\nBE MOVING INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATER TONIGHT.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW\r\nBARELY OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nDEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  GASTON WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nPRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALONG/NEAR ITS PATH.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 360/7.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nPREDICTED...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT\r\nMOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND THEN GET ABSORBED INTO A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THIS...THE LARGER CIRCULATION\r\nOF GASTON IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB TROPICAL STORM HERMINE IN THE 48\r\nHOUR TIME FRAME.\r\n\r\nSINCE GASTON SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND...THE REMAINING\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WILL LIKELY\r\nBE DISCONTINUED IN A FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 33.9N  79.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 35.2N  79.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 37.0N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 39.5N  75.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 41.5N  71.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 46.0N  61.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBASREVATIONS INDICATE GASTON HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRNGTH...OVER WATER EAST OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nMOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE CHESAPEAKE LIGHT C-MAN STATION HAS\r\nREPORTED 10-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT WITH GUTS TO 49 KT AT\r\n42 METERS ABOVE THE WATER. SHIP H9YY ALSO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND\r\nOF 36 KT AT 00Z ABOUT 35 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE\r\nCHESAPEAKE BAY. ALL OF THESE WIND REPORTS WERE FROM THE SOUTH OR\r\nSOUTHEAST INDICATING THAT NO TROPICAL STORMN FORCE WINDS WERE BEING\r\nREPORTED OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/16. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND REMAIN OFFSHORE THE U.S. NORTHEAST\r\nCOAST ONCE IT CLEARS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA IN ANOTHER 3 HOURS OR\r\nSO. AFTER PASSING OVER COLDER WATER IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...GRADUAL\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW/GALE AREA IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH GASTON IS A TROPCIAL STORM...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWIND ARE OCCURING IN A SMALL AREA WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER OVER ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...COASTAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED...ALTHOUGH GASTON WILL BE A THREAT TO\r\nMARINE INTERESTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 37.7N  75.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 39.3N  73.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 41.6N  66.9W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 44.3N  59.4W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 48.0N  49.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM DOVER DELAWARE SHOWS THAT GASTON STILL HAS A GOOD\r\nRADAR SIGNATURE.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND A\r\nFRONTAL-LIKE BAND SEEMS TO BE FORMING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A\r\nCOMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COLD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GASTON TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nIN 24-36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/16.  GASTON SHOULD ACCELERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY ALL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED...AND THE FORECAST\r\nSPEED IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 38.4N  73.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 40.0N  70.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 42.3N  64.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 45.1N  56.2W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 48.5N  46.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND WSR-88D DATA\r\nFROM BROOKHAVEN NEW YORK SHOW A FAIR RADAR PRESENTATION.  SINCE\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nLIKELY.  GASTON IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE VERY SOON...SO THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS.  GASTON'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN ACCELERATING...AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/18. \r\nGASTON IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES.  THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEEDS AMONGST THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 39.5N  71.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  68.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 43.0N  62.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 46.0N  53.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 49.5N  44.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n\r\nON THE LARGER SCALE...THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LESS TROPICAL\r\nAS IT APPEARS HAVE BECOME INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND. \r\nHOWEVER...WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH IS INDICATIVE\r\nOF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GASTON WILL BE PASSING OVER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER SHORTLY AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH\r\nTHE FRONT...SO IT SHOULD SOON BE TRANFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nGALE.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN MORE ACCELERATION...AND THE FORWARD SPEED IS NOW NEAR\r\n25 KT.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE FUTURE\r\nFORWARD SPEED BUT AGREE ON SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AS\r\nGASTON...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 40.7N  68.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 42.5N  64.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 45.0N  57.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 47.5N  48.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 50.0N  38.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nGASTON IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER 60 DEGREE\r\nWATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE EVEN INCREASED A BIT\r\nOVER THE LAST 6 HOURS...ALTHOUGH BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nNEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE WINDS MAY HAVE FALLEN\r\nSOME...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE APPARENT SURFACE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.\r\nGASTON IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS FOR LONG\r\nOVER SUCH COLD WATER...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...INDICATE THAT SOME MODEST EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING\r\nMAY OCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/27. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AS GASTON...OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nREMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE CARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 41.8N  66.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 43.7N  60.4W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 46.5N  51.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 51.5N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GASTON IS\r\nMOSTLY EXTRATROPICAL. THERE IS A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE CLOUD\r\nSHIELD INDICATING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS CONVERGING WITH AN UPPER\r\nJET. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND BUOY\r\nWRYG RECENTLY REPORTED 45 KT WINDS. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.  WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINDICATES MODEST EXTRATROPICAL STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF\r\nGASTON AT 45 KT IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nGASTON IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n065/30.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON GASTON BEING\r\nCARRIED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON GASTON. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 42.4N  61.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 44.3N  55.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 48.0N  44.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 50.9N  34.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHT\r\nTROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS\r\nEXPECTED AND...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE MERGED WITH THE\r\nMUCH LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEPS THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE\r\nU.S EAST COAST. THEREFORE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING ARE\r\nNECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 32.4N  71.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 35.6N  73.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 39.0N  72.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM BOTH\r\nSAB AND AIRFORCE GLOBAL.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 40 KTS.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SAME\r\nSHEAR SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE\r\nIN INTENSITY IS FORECAST.  ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING AWAY\r\nFROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH IS EXPECTED AND...BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE\r\nMERGED WITH OR BEEN ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON.  THIS MERGER OR ABSORPTION\r\nMEANS THAT NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY. \r\nHOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 33.2N  71.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 35.1N  71.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 37.9N  71.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 41.2N  70.4W    45 KT...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5 FROM TAFB...T3.0 FROM \r\nSAB AND T2.5 FROM AIRFORCE GLOBAL.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED\r\nON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL PRESENT.  NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nFORECAST AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE WARM WATERS OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/16.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST GFS\r\nMODEL RUN KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT DOES\r\nNOT MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AS PREVIOUS THOUGHT.  HERMINE\r\nACTUALLY ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AND DOES\r\nEVENTUALLY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  HERMINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO PASS CLOSE OR TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD BUT SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTO A DEPRESSION BY THAT TIME.  THUS...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE\r\nREQUIRED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 34.6N  71.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 37.0N  71.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 41.5N  69.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 45.7N  65.1W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY\r\nORGANIZED.  HOWEVER A 0947Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 45 TO 50 KT WINDS\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10.  THIS MOTION PUTS THE CENTER\r\nOVER COLD SSTS BY 12 HOURS AND NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.\r\nHOWEVER MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A FARILY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT JUST IN CASE\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT.\r\n \r\nTHE GFS KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY CENTER UNTIL 24 HOURS\r\nAFTER WHICH IT MERGES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH\r\nPROBABLY INCLUDES THE REMAINS OF GASTON.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 36.7N  71.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  71.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 44.0N  67.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 48.0N  61.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF SOME NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE \r\nCONVECTION.  BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL ALLOW FOR A 45\r\nKT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE.  SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS\r\nHERMINE MOVES OVER COLD WATER.  BUOY 44004 IS ONLY ABOUT 40 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IF THE BUOY DOES NOT OBSERVE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN HERMINE IS LIKELY\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/18.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES\r\nAROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS\r\n850 MB VORTICITY CENTER WHICH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 38.4N  71.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 41.0N  70.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 46.0N  65.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nHERMINE IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND LOOKS LIKE A LOW LEVEL\r\nCLOUD SWIRL...A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...BUOY 44004 REPORTED\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KTS AND SEAS OF 15 FEET AS THE CENTER PASSED\r\nTO THE WEST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A 35 KNOT WIND MAXIMUM IS LOCATED\r\nBETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE CYCLONE CENTER.  SATELLITE T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ALSO SUPPORT A 35 KNOT WIND SPEED.  SO THE SYSTEM IS\r\nKEPT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM UNTIL LANDFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/24.  THIS MOTION IS KEPT UNTIL\r\nAFTER LANDFALL ON THE MASSACHUSETTS MAINLAND AND THEN A TURN \r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND RUNS INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE GFDL SOLUTION.\r\nTHE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OF HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 41.1N  71.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 44.1N  68.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 47.9N  61.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hermine","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nHERMINE HAS COME ASHORE AND AND THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED WINDS WERE\r\nABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  THE SYSTEM HAS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THE BOSTON RADAR SHOWS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY FILLING. \r\nRATHER THAN CONTINUE THIS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WE WILL DECLARE\r\nIT EXTRATROPICAL AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/17.  THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING\r\nSHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 42.4N  69.9W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 45.1N  66.8W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-8 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE\r\nVERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nTHUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...28 TO 29\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS...AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...ALTHOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY AFFECT THE SYSTEM\r\nON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH\r\nIS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND REMAIN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/PASCH\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z  9.7N  29.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z  9.7N  31.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 10.0N  35.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 10.3N  38.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 10.8N  41.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 12.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 12.9N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 14.0N  60.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nWHILE I AM NOT CRAZY ABOUT RELOCATING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT\r\nNIGHT...AN SSMI PASS NEAR 23Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SHOW\r\nABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THIS POSITIONING OF THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING A BALL OF VERY COLD CONVECTION FOR THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z\r\nWERE 30 KT.  HOWEVER...THESE ESTIMATES WERE BASED ON POSITIONS MORE\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...AND SO I AM INCLINED TO KEEP THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 25 KT.\r\n \r\nWITH THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 270/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP\r\nEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS ON A BRISK\r\nWESTWARD MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...\r\nBUT APPEARS TO BE HAVING TROUBLE CONSOLIDATING A CIRCULATION DURING\r\nTHE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE INTEGRATION...AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAS A RESULT OF THE RELOCATION AND CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL HAS UNBRIDLED ENTHUSIASM FOR THIS SYSTEM...TAKING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  BOTH THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL BE SLOW TO\r\nDIMINISH AS THE DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  STEADY STRENGTHENING WILL BE\r\nFORECAST...BUT MORE IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z  9.8N  29.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z  9.9N  31.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 10.1N  34.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 10.4N  38.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 10.8N  41.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 11.5N  47.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 12.5N  53.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 14.0N  59.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THIS AND THE IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE...T.D. NINE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IVAN.  IVAN\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  GLOBALS MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH IVAN THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. ACCORDINGLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SAVE NOGAPS WHICH IS SLOWER AND MORE\r\nPOLEWARD...AND THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nESSENTIALLY MAINTAINS A CONSISTENT FORWARD SPEED OF 15 TO 17 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nIVAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION IS SITUATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND\r\nIVAN WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO\r\nAGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHEN IVAN TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE BY 84\r\nHOURS BUT THIS APPEARS A BIT MUCH GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL NOT\r\nTOTALLY DIMINISH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MORE MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 10.0N  30.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 10.1N  33.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 10.3N  36.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 10.6N  39.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 10.9N  42.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 11.6N  49.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 13.0N  55.2W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N  61.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH SOME\r\nBANDING FEATURES...AND CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT...ABOUT THE\r\nAVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THERE\r\nIS MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THIS IS NOT\r\nLIKELY TO BE MUCH OF A HINDERANCE TO STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A LITTLE FASTER...\r\n260/16.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE STEERING PATTERN.  IVAN IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY CURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS REGIME\r\nWILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS.  THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS ARE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z  9.6N  32.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z  9.7N  35.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 10.0N  38.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 10.3N  42.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 10.5N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N  57.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 14.5N  63.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND\r\nWRAPPING ABOUT TWO-THIRDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER.  DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS 45 KT BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES.  UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nWELL-DEFINED AND EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...INDICATIVE OF WEAK\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS IVAN TO\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 HOURS AND TO 100 KNOTS BY 120\r\nHOURS...WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nIVAN IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...NOW 255/17.  THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF\r\nA STRONG RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OR BUILD WESTWARD\r\nALONG WITH IVAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...THEREFORE A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN TURN IVAN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THIS SCENARIO\r\nSEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z  8.9N  34.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z  8.7N  37.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z  8.7N  40.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z  9.0N  43.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z  9.8N  46.6W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 11.5N  53.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 13.0N  59.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 15.0N  64.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS HAD RAIN-FLAGGED 55 KT SURFACE WINDS\r\nWELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND SO DID A PASS FROM EARLY FRIDAY\r\nMORNING.  SINCE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN THE SAME ALL DAY\r\nFROM SAB...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 96 KT IN 120 HOURS UNDER\r\nDECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OF COURSE WARM SSTS OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFDL IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BUT...AS IS\r\nUSUALLY THE CASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GOES 12 INFRARED FIXES\r\nBASED ON AN ANALYSIS OF THE 2228Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY WIND FIELD.\r\nTHIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/15.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nALL SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING TO THE NORTH OF IVAN AND ALL\r\nSHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK EXCEPT BECOMING A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AFTER 96 HOURS.  THE GFS IS THE LEFT-MOST TRACK AND\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND GFDL EMBEDDED IN THE NOGAPS ARE THE RIGHT-MOST\r\nTRACKS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL LEFT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  IN ANY CASE IVAN SHOULD MOVE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z  9.1N  35.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z  9.2N  38.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z  9.4N  41.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 10.2N  44.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 11.0N  47.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 12.5N  53.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N  59.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N  64.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVAN HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT\r\nAND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT\r\n50 KT. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IVAN. HOWEVER...SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS NOT DISRUPTING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW WHICH IS UNOBSTRUCTED IN ALL QUADRANTS INCLUDING TO THE\r\nEAST.  IVAN HAS BEEN STEADILY STRENGTHENING AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE. THUS...THERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS WHY IVAN\r\nSHOULD NOT CONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO NEAR 100 KT IN 120 HOURS WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST MORE VIGOROUS STRENGTHENING TO 135\r\nKT. THUS FAR...THE SHIPS HAS BEEN THE BETTER PERFORMER OF THE TWO\r\nMODELS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY.\r\n \r\nIVAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG AS EXPECTED AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 270/16. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nBUILDING WESTWARD WITH IVAN. THIS WOULD TEND TO STEER IVAN ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BETWEEN 15-17 KNOTS. BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IVAN APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE POLEWARD MOTION AND\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS IS\r\nNOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND\r\nTHE NHC MODEL SUITE IS MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT\r\nOF AN OUTLIER AS IT WEAKENS IVAN EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND\r\nTHEN MOVES IT MORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THIS SOLUTION IS HARD TO ACCEPT. ONLY MINOR\r\nCHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  ON THIS TRACK..IVAN WOULD AFFECT THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z  9.0N  37.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z  9.1N  39.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z  9.7N  43.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 10.5N  46.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 11.4N  49.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 13.0N  55.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 14.5N  61.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  65.6W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES BUT\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING AT THE MOMENT.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC\r\nTIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nCIMSS INDICATE WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF IVAN.  THEREFORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nTHIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT\r\nNOT AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST UNCOUPLED GFDL MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ESSENTIALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 16 KT. \r\nTHE STEERING SCENARIO FOR IVAN REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A STRONG HIGH\r\nPRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nMODEL TRACKS ARE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z  8.9N  38.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z  9.2N  41.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z  9.9N  44.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 10.6N  47.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 11.4N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N  57.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  63.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N  68.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT IVAN HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THERE IS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS\r\nPRACTICALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER...WHICH USING THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE GIVES A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5 OR 55 KT FOR THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IVAN WILL\r\nREMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nSO...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY.\r\n\r\nA SWIFT...MOSTLY WESTWARD...MOTION CONTINUES.  THERE ARE NO\r\nIMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE ONLY A\r\nGENTLE BEND TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...WITHOUT MUCH DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT 5 DAYS...THE CENTER\r\nCOULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z  9.1N  40.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z  9.7N  43.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 10.4N  46.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 11.4N  49.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 12.3N  53.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 14.0N  59.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N  65.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N  70.5W    95 KT...INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nIVAN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED COLD\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST OF A WARM SPOT THAT IS NOT YET\r\nDESERVING OF BEING CALLED AN EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 77 KT FROM AFWA AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...AN\r\nSSM/I OVERPASS AT 0005Z DID NOT SHOW AN EYE OR EVEN THAT GOOD OF\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT THIS TIME WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  IVAN REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3-4 DAYS.  BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING A FORECAST\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nMORE NORTHERLY TURN.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS UNUSUALLY WELL CLUSTERED\r\nEVEN OUT TO DAY FIVE...CALLING FOR IVAN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 72 HR AND THEN PASS\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 96-120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THIS GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE PREDICTS LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 3-4\r\nDAYS...SO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY IVAN SHOULD NOT GRADUALLY\r\nINTENSIFY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY.  WITH\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKING THE STORM OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 96-120\r\nHR...THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED.  THERE IS ALSO\r\nSOME UNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AFTER\r\n96 HR...AS THE GFS AND NOGAPS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE BAHAMAS BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED EARLIER...BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT 5\r\nDAYS...THE CENTER COULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE\r\nISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z  9.4N  42.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z  9.8N  44.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 10.7N  48.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 11.8N  51.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 12.7N  55.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N  61.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N  67.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 20.0N  72.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0450Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOW THAT IVAN\r\nHAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AROUND THE WARM SPOT\r\nSEEN EARLIER TO NOW CALL IT AN EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 77 KT FROM AFWA AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THUS...IVAN IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/18...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE\r\nEVEN FASTER.  IVAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. \r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...A SCENARIO SUPPORTED BY WELL-CLUSTERED TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-CLUSTERED AROUND A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION ON DAY 5...BUT BY THAT TIME THERE ARE\r\nSIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS ON THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC RANGING FROM THE NOGAPS SOLID-LOOKING RIDGE TO THE GFS\r\nBROAD POST-FRANCES TROUGH.  THE 120 HR POINT WILL CONTINUE A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION...BUT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS POINT HAS\r\nDECREASED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE PREDICTS LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 3-4\r\nDAYS...SO THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY IVAN SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY\r\nFURTHER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY...AND IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE RAPID STRENGTHENING.  WITH THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKING THE STORM OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 96-120 HR...THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY IS CONSIDERABLY REDUCED.  THERE IS ALSO SOME\r\nUNCERTAINTY OF WHETHER THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AFTER\r\n96 HR...AS THE GFS IN PARTICULAR SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nBECOMING LESS FAVORABLE.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED EARLIER...BECAUSE OF THE TYPICAL TRACK FORECAST ERRORS AT\r\n4-5 DAYS...THE CENTER COULD EASILY PASS SOUTH...OR NORTH...OF THE\r\nISLAND OF HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z  9.7N  44.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 10.3N  47.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 11.3N  50.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 12.2N  54.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 13.1N  57.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 14.5N  63.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  69.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N  73.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n\r\nIVAN IS STRENGTHENING RATHER RAPIDLY AT THIS TIME.  THE EYE IS\r\nBECOMING BETTER DEFINED ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUPPORT AT LEAST 75 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THIS\r\nMAKES IVAN THE STRONGEST TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SUCH A LOW LATITUDE\r\nIN THE ATLANTIC BASIN RECORDS.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED\r\nOVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE HURRICANE.  ALL PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN\r\nPLACE FOR IVAN TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING...AND THERE IS A HIGH\r\nLIKELIHOOD THAT THIS WILL BECOME THE SEASON'S FOURTH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. \r\n \r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/18...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY\r\nBE EVEN FASTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED.  IVAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...A REGIME THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS\r\nAND WHICH WOULD STEER THE HURRICANE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THAT\r\nTIME SPAN.  IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME FRAME...THERE IS OF COURSE MORE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...AND WHERE IVAN WINDS UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL\r\nDEPEND LARGELY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY THAT\r\nTIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IN EVEN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...I.E. GUNS.  THE GFS HAS NOT BEEN\r\nSHOWING A REALISTIC SOLUTION SINCE IT WEAKENS IVAN INTO A TROPICAL\r\nWAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN IVAN'S\r\nINTENSITY...SUCH A SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BASED ON A RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS THAT COVERED THE CIRCULATION OF IVAN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z  9.9N  46.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 10.6N  48.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  52.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 12.4N  55.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 13.3N  59.4W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  65.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N  71.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-09-05 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n1 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n...CORRECT TO SHOW INLAND AT 120HR ONLY...\r\nTHE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REPORT THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF IVAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  A SPECIAL DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND DATA T-NUMBERS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF\r\nABOUT 100 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THIS\r\nESTIMATE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY BUT WE SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELLING OFF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTIES.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1700Z 10.1N  46.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 10.6N  48.7W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  52.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 12.4N  55.9W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 13.3N  59.4W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  65.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N  71.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IVAN HAS INTENSIFIED AND\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 110 KT.  AS NOTED\r\nEARLIER...IT IS UNPRECEDENTED TO HAVE A HURRICANE THIS STRONG AT\r\nSUCH A LOW LATITUDE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEG C AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nQUITE SYMMETRIC AND STRONG.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nCONSERVATIVE BECAUSE OF OUR LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY\r\nCHANGE...AND OBVIOUSLY IVAN COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE.   \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS LIKELY\r\nTO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...AND THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME STEERING FLOW FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS AT THE 500\r\nMB LEVEL ARE SHOWING A TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES\r\nAND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nTO FLORIDA.  HOWEVER THE DETAILS VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL...AND\r\nTHERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IVAN WILL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH EXCLUDES THE GFS.  THE LATTER MODEL\r\nIS INITIALIZING THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW...SO ITS\r\nMORE SOUTHERN TRACK IS CONSIDERED UNREALISTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 10.4N  47.7W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 11.0N  50.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 11.9N  54.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 12.8N  57.5W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 13.6N  61.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 15.5N  66.5W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N  71.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N  76.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN\r\nCONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE\r\nWITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT.  CONVECTION IS\r\nREMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS\r\nAPPROACHING -80 DEG C.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18.  ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nSIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,\r\nBRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS.  FOR THE\r\n120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE GFS SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND\r\nMOVES IVAN FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. \r\nBOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT AT THE 24 HOUR\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN.  GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130\r\nKT IN 12 HOURS.  FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 10.8N  49.4W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 11.4N  52.1W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 12.2N  55.6W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 13.0N  58.9W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 13.8N  61.7W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 16.1N  67.1W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.7N  71.7W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n \r\nFINAL T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS\r\nWEAKENED A BIT OVERNIGHT. LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME CLOUD FILLED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST...275/20. THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST\r\nMODELS SUGGEST A VERY SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96\r\nHOURS.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE STEERING IVAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA BY DAY TWO AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA ON\r\nDAY FOUR. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY FIVE WITH NOGAPS\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nAIDS ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUNS AND\r\nGUNA.\r\n \r\nIVAN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REACHING\r\n130 KT IN 48 HOURS...THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nLIES AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. INTERACTION OF IVAN WITH HISPANIOLA\r\nWILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM...JUST HOW MUCH\r\nREMAINS TO BE SEEN. A BRIEF EVALUATION OF CLIMATOLOGY LOOKING FOR\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SIMILAR TRACKS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM S\r\nPASSING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER ENCOUNTER LIMITED DEGRADATION\r\nIN INTENSITY BEFORE EMERGING W OF THE ISLAND. BEARING THIS IN\r\nMIND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD A BIT HIGHER THAN SHIPS BUT\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFDL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 10.8N  51.6W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 11.6N  54.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 12.3N  57.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 13.2N  60.7W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 14.3N  63.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 16.8N  69.1W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  77.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n\r\nA SMALL EYE IS EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THERE IS A SMALL CDO\r\nAND SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES.  ESTIMATES OF THE\r\nDATA T-NUMBER RANGE FROM 4.5 TO 5.5 SO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  SINCE THE HURRICANE APPEARED\r\nTO BE SO INTENSE LAST NIGHT...WE ARE HOLDING THE WIND SPEED AT 110\r\nKT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK RULES.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IVAN AROUND 18Z AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MUCH BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS\r\nHURRICANE.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR IN\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT OF IVAN...PROBABLY DUE TO A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nOVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  HOWEVER THAT MODEL ALSO SHOWS\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF IVAN.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nVERY HIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO INDICATES INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 HAS THE ADDED UNCERTAINTY\r\nOF HOW IVAN WILL INTERACT WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/19. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY. IVAN\r\nIS EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT AND SHOULD\r\nREMAIN SO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH\r\nAND POSITIONS OF A RIDGE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  IT IS STILL TO EARLY\r\nTO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT WHETHER IVAN WILL BE SOUTH OF...OVER...OR\r\nNORTH OF CUBA AROUND 5 DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR SEVERAL OF THE WINDWARD\r\nISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 11.2N  53.4W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 11.8N  56.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 12.7N  59.5W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 13.7N  62.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N  65.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N  71.0W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N  75.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 23.5N  78.5W    90 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS OF 94\r\nKT AND 87 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS\r\nRESPECTIVELY. THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 90 KT...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THEY MEASURED BY\r\nDROPSONDE...969 MB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nIS SLIGHTLY LOWER SINCE THE DROPSONDE SHOWED WINDS OVER 20 KT WHEN\r\nIT HIT THE SURFACE...SUGGESTING THAT IT WAS NOT IN THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE EYE.  SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE...AND\r\nTHE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE.  WE SEE NO\r\nREASON WHY IVAN COULD NOT RESTRENGTHEN VERY SOON...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...285/19...IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM WHAT IT WAS\r\nEARLIER TODAY.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG EASTERLY TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY \r\nCURRENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...CONU...HAS BEEN SHIFTING A LITTLE TO THE WEST\r\nTODAY...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...IN THE 4-5 DAY TIME\r\nFRAME...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN FRANCES...OR ITS REMNANTS OVER THE\r\nEAST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES...AND IVAN.  IF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS\r\nIS LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA...IVAN COULD VEER TOWARD THE\r\nBAHAMAS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS SIMPLY TOO\r\nEARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE\r\nUNITED STATES COAST. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nSHOW A MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 11.6N  55.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 12.3N  58.1W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 13.2N  61.5W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N  64.4W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 15.0N  67.4W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N  72.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 20.0N  76.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 23.0N  80.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004\r\n \r\nAN EVALUATION OF THE DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nIVAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.\r\nDROPSONDES THROUGHOUT THE MISSION HAVE SHOWN A MODEST DROP IN\r\nPRESSURE FROM 969 MB TO 963 MB.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND\r\nMEASURED WAS 106 KT...CORRESPONDING TO A SURFACE WIND OF 85 KT.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT TO 90 KT...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18.  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PROVIDED A\r\nFIX TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  IVAN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE SOON...AS UNIVERSALLY SUGGESTED\r\nBY THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  DUE IN PART TO A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\nTHERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT 96 AND\r\n120 HOURS.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING IVAN\r\nWELL SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENNINSULA.  NOGAPS AND THE\r\nGFDL BRING IVAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS LINE WITH THE\r\nCLOSELY PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS.         \r\n\r\nA NOAA JET IN IVAN THIS EVENING HAS FOUND THE EXISTENCE OF A SAHARAN\r\nAIR LAYER IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM.  THIS MAY HELP\r\nEXPLAIN THE WEAKENING OF IVAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.  IVAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS IVAN\r\nAWAY FROM ANY MAJOR LAND AREAS...THE INTENSITY OF IVAN IN THE LATER\r\nPERIODS ARE MAINTAINED.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 11.2N  57.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 11.8N  59.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 12.7N  62.9W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 13.7N  66.1W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 14.7N  69.1W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.2N  74.3W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N  78.7W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N  82.4W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON INDICATES THAT IVAN HAS AND IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE DRASTICALLY IMPROVED\r\nAPPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECON REPORTS INDICATE AN INNER\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY DECAYED WHILE A NEW OUTER\r\nEYEWALL HAS STABILIZED AT AROUND 20 NMI DIAMETER. THE HIGHEST 700\r\nMB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO FAR HAS BEEN 107 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT. A DROPSONDE IN THE SAME AREA INDICATED 137 KT\r\nWINDS AT 953 MB...BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A WIND GUST. HOWEVER\r\n...THE OVERALL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE CLEARLY REVEALED THAT IVAN IS\r\nIS BECOMING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AS COMPARED TO JUST 6 HOURS AGO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16.  RECONNAISSANCE AND SATELLITE POSITION\r\nESTIMATES INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED SOMEWHAT. \r\nA NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET PERFORMED A SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF IVAN LATE YESTERDAY EVENING WHICH HAD A SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPACT ON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS BEGIN TO\r\nDIVERGE ENOUGH FOR ALREADY STORM WEARY PEOPLE IN FLORIDA TO BE\r\nCONCERNED ABOUT. THE GFDL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH A TRACK\r\nBETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE NEW 00Z\r\nGFS RUN NOW HAS A MORE REALISTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX IN THE\r\nMODEL INITIALIZATION...AND IT HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK MORE TO THE\r\nEAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY\r\nOUTLIER AT 96HR AND 120HR BY TAKING IVAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD\r\nWESTERN CUBA. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS ...\r\nINCLUDING THE UKMET...GRADUALLY BUILD A STRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE\r\nHIGH/RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS THAT SHOULD ACT TO BLOCK ANY WESTWARD\r\nMOTION INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF. IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nWESTERN U.S. RIDGING ...A BROAD TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE\r\nWAKE OF FRANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CENTRAL AND\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH UNFORTUNATELY OPENS THE DOOR FOR\r\nIVAN TO POSSIBLY SLOW AND MOVE MORE NORTHWARD BY 120HR ACROSS\r\nCENTRAL CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TO THE RIGHT OF TRACK AFTER THAT\r\n...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNA AND GUNS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nIVAN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATER...REACHING\r\nNEAR 30C WATER IN 72HR. GIVE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN TO REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE...THEN AT LEAST STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF IVAN TAPS INTO THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 11.4N  58.5W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 12.0N  61.2W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 13.0N  64.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 14.2N  67.6W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N  70.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N  75.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 20.5N  79.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  81.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST INFORMATION FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING INDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 963 MB AND THE PEAK\r\nWIND AT FLIGHT LEVEL WAS 116 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS FROM FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nCURRENTLY...THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS BUT A LARGE-UPPER\r\nLOW IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAY INDUCE SOME SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE.\r\nTHIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nTHAT SHOWS A 20-KNOT SOUTHERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...WHICH\r\nCOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ULTIMATELY MOVE THE UPPER-LOW WESTWARD LEAVING A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN\r\nAS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IVAN IS A POWERFUL HURRICANE\r\nWHICH IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN FIVE DAYS.\r\n\r\nIVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS SOUTH A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS\r\nSTEERING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD. IN TIME...A LARGE MID TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES\r\nAND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE\r\nALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  HOW FAR NORTH THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE DEPENDS ON\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS VARIES\r\nWITH MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A\r\nLITTLE BIT AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 11.8N  60.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 12.3N  62.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 13.0N  65.6W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 14.0N  68.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N  71.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N  76.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N  80.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 22.0N  83.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 956 MB\r\nWITH A DROP AND 955 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB. IT ALSO MEASURED\r\n118 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A CLOSED EYEWALL OF 14 NMI DIAMETER.\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\n105 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW A\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN\r\nADDITION...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nWHERE THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...HIGH OCTANE GAS\r\nFOR HURRICANES...WHICH COULD ADD TO THE INTENSIFICATION.  IVAN\r\nCOULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE\r\nWILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA...WESTERN CUBA OR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING AND IVAN IS STILL MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST\r\nBECOMES UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  BY THEN...THE HURRICANE COULD MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN CUBA\r\nAND SOUTH FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...THE UK AND NOGAPS...OR\r\nCONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL\r\nAND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE LATTER ASSUMES THAT THE TROUGH IN\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE\r\nNORTHWARD...AND THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO STEER THE\r\nHURRICANE TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER OPTION BIASED TOWARD THE\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 12.0N  62.0W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 12.5N  64.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N  67.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 14.7N  70.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N  73.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  77.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 20.0N  81.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 23.0N  84.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004\r\n \r\nIVAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING.  THE LAST PASS\r\nOF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER THROUGH THE EYE SHOWED A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 950 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129\r\nKT AT 700 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 115 KT BASED ON THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF\r\nIVAN HAS IMPROVED SINCE 00Z AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE IN IVAN\r\nAROUND 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15.  IVAN REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES IT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nDEVELOPS TO THE EAST.   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THIS\r\nSEEEMS TO BE RETREATING WESTWARD AS FAST OR FASTER THAN THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nMORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. \r\nUNFORTUNATELY...MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO\r\nRUN AT THE MOMENT.  THE GFS MADE A HUGE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT...FROM\r\nPASSING WEST OF FLORIDA TO PASSING 200 NM EAST OF FLORIDA.  THE\r\nGFDL ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT FROM A LEFT OUTLIER INTO THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO\r\nSHIFTS...A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR\r\nTHE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE INTENSITY OF IVAN\r\nWILL BE MAINLY CONTROLLED BY CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES...CHANGES IN\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND LAND INTERACTION.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS\r\nAT 0105Z SHOWED AN OUTER EYEWALL STARTING TO FORM...WHICH SUGGEST\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION CYCLE WILL STOP IN 6-12 HR.  HOWEVER...\r\nBY THAT TIME IVAN MAY BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL PASS OVER SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES THROUGH 48 HR...THEN REACH WARMER WATER NORTHWEST OF\r\nJAMAICA AFTER 72 HR.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT UPS AND DOWNS IN THE\r\nINTENSITY...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST LIKELY CATEGORY 4 BUT POSSIBLY REACHING\r\nCATEGORY 5 AT SOME POINTS.\r\n\r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND\r\nCURACAO...AS ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THOSE ISLANDS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 12.1N  63.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 12.8N  65.7W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 13.8N  68.8W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 14.9N  71.6W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.3N  74.2W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N  78.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 21.0N  81.0W   130 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 24.0N  83.0W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n \r\nIVAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 133 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...\r\nWHICH EQUALS A 120-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED BY \r\nDROPSONDES WAS 150 KT AT 923 MB IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. THE\r\nCENTRAL HAS ALSO BEEN AS LOW AS 947 MB...BUT THE DROPSONDE MEASURED\r\nA SURFACE WIND OF 57 KT...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LIKELY LOWER.\r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 120 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  IVAN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTH OF\r\nDUE WEST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS\r\nORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH IS SEPARATING FRANCES TO THE\r\nNORTH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. FROM IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN. DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...THE HIGH/RIDGE IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL THE MODELS THE GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS FRANCES LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. BY\r\nDAY 3...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST\r\nIS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE WEST COAST AND AMPLIFY THE DOWNSTREAM\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN\r\nRESULTS IN A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD AND ERODE/WEAKEN THE RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL\r\nAND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE\r\nMODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE A YET-TO-DEVELOP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS DEVELOP THE\r\nLOW AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN IT AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS BY DAY 4. THE GFS...HOWEVER...HANGS ONTO\r\nTHE LOW LONGER AND KEEPS IT FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH ERODES THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOONER AND ALLOWS IVAN TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE HURRICANE IS NEAR JAMAICA. FOR THE\r\nTIME BEING...THE GFS AND THE BAM MODELS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE STRONG\r\nEASTERN OUTLIERS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...TIMING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES IS\r\nIMPOSSIBLE...EXCEPT IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH IVAN APPEARS TO BE\r\nSTARTING TO GO THROUGH NOW. ONCE THAT CYCLE ENDS...IVAN SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NEGATIVE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA. INTENSITY DECREASES\r\nAT 72HR AND 120HR REFLECT POSSIBLE PASSAGES OVER JAMAICA AND CUBA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 12.4N  64.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 13.1N  67.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 14.2N  70.1W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 15.5N  72.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 16.8N  75.0W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 19.1N  78.7W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 21.5N  81.5W   130 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N  82.5W   120 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n\r\nLAST FIX FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE PRESSURE INCREASED TO 955 MB BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE\r\nSTILL 133 KNOTS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THEN...HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE EYE IS NOT AS\r\nDISTINCT AS EARLIER BUT STILL VISIBLE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT\r\n120 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL HAVE TO FIGHT SOME SHEAR AND\r\nWILL BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST...THERE MAY\r\nBE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THERE\r\nIS HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND LOWER SHEAR. SO...IVAN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING CUBA. NEVERTHERELESS...THESE ARE\r\nBASICALLY FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AND THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT\r\nIVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.    \r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IVAN IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nIVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...FORCING IVAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A\r\nBROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD MOVE THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWEST\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT MUST\r\nBE EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND ARE CURRENTLY\r\nNOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS. IN FACT...SOME RELIABLE\r\nMODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER RELIABLE GROUP MOVE THE\r\nHURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO\r\nFAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nPRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON\r\nA NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN\r\nOVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY\r\nDAY FIVE.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 12.7N  66.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 13.3N  68.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 14.5N  71.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.0N  73.5W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N  76.0W   125 KT NEAR JAMAICA\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N  79.0W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 22.5N  82.0W   125 KT  OVER WESTERN CUBA \r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 26.0N  84.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n \r\nTODAY HAS BEEN A HISTORIC DAY FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE/\r\nNATIONAL OCEANIC ATMOPHERIC ADMINISTRATION/NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES VISITED THE FACILITIES AT MIAMI FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE AND\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 947 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH A DISTINCT\r\nEYE...SURROUNDED COMPLETELY BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nEXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120 KNOTS. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT IVAN IS OVERCOMING THE SHEAR AND HEADING TOWARD A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nAFTER CROSSING CUBA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE\r\nOCEAN IS NOT AS WARM. THEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\nHOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nIVAN HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING\r\n295 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE...KEEPING IVAN ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAND A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. IT MUST BE RE-EMPHASIZED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO BE WEAK AND NOT WELL-DEFINED IN THE FORECAST MODELS.\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE MODELS CONTINUES IN THE LATEST 12Z RUN. SOME\r\nMODELS BRING IVAN OVER FLORIDA AND ANOTHER GROUP MOVE THE\r\nHURRICANE TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE IS NO APPARENT REASON TO\r\nFAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nPRESUMES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON\r\nA NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK... BRINGING DANGEROUS IVAN\r\nOVER WESTERN CUBA IN 4 DAYS AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY\r\nDAY FIVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 13.4N  67.7W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 14.2N  69.8W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.5N  72.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N  74.7W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 18.5N  77.0W   130 KT OVER JAMAICA\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 20.5N  80.0W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  82.0W   120 KT OVER WESTERN CUBA\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  83.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n \r\nIVAN WENT THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID DEEPENING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING FROM 951 TO 938 MB IN A PERIOD OF\r\nABOUT 5.5 HOURS.  THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL-WINDS WERE 131\r\nKT...AND A NORTHEAST EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS NEAR\r\n120 KT.  BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE PRESSURE...THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\n127 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE HURRICANE HUNTER LEFT...SO IT IS UNKNOWN IF\r\nTHE DEEPENING HAS CONTINUED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nIVAN HAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE EVENING AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/15.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AS IVAN SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THINGS GETS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 48 HR...AS THE\r\nRIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN DUE TO A DIGGING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD\r\nUNDER THE RIDGE.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW IVAN TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE USUAL QUESTIONS\r\nOF WHERE AND WHEN.  THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nHAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE GFS RECURVING IVAN THROUGH\r\nTHE BAHAMAS...THE GFDL MOVING IT INTO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...THE\r\nNOGAPS MOVING IT UP THE LENGTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND THE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE PASSING JUST WEST OF KEY WEST.  GIVEN THE\r\nINCONSISTENCY OF THE MODELS...AND THE LEFTWARD NUDGE THAT OCCURRED\r\nTHIS EVENING...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT AS FAR EAST AS THE\r\nGUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR AND THEN SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nRIGHT AFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IVAN TO REACH 135 KT IN 12 HR ON\r\nTHE PREMISE THAT THE AFTERNOON STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...VARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT IVAN SHOULD PASS OVER COOLER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY\r\nFOR ABOUT 24 HR.  THIS COMBINED WITH AN EXPECTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nCYCLE SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  WARMER WATER AWAITS OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...WHICH WOULD\r\nALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING WHEN IVAN IS NOT HITTING LAND OR\r\nUNDERGOING CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES.  AFTER 96 HR...SOME WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR MAY DEVELOP AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING AT 120 HR.  WHILE THE INTENSITY UPS AND DOWNS MAY BE MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED THAN FORECAST HERE...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 13.6N  69.1W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 14.5N  71.0W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 15.9N  73.4W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 17.4N  75.6W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 18.6N  77.5W   120 KT...NEAR JAMAICA\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 21.0N  80.0W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  82.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 27.0N  82.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON THIS MORNING HAS FOUND AN INTENSE HURRICANE IVAN.\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 922 MB HAS DROPPED 15 MB IN THE PAST 7\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 154\r\nKT...EQUAL TO 139 KT SURFACE WIND...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER ON TWO SEPARATE PASSES. IN ADDITION...AND EYEWALL\r\nDROPSONDE RECORDED A WIND SPEED OF 175 KT AT ABOUT 630 FT ABOVE SEA\r\nLEVEL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...IVAN IS EASILY UPGRADED TO A\r\n140-KT CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AS I WRITE...A NEW RECON REPORT\r\nINDICATES AN EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 916 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13. IVAN HAS BEEN SLOWLY GAINING LATITUDE\r\nOVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND THE LAST TWO RECON FIX POSITIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT IVAN MAY BE MOVING AT 295 DEGREES. DROPSONDE DATA FROM\r\nTHE 00Z SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS AROUND IVAN HAS RESULTED IN \r\nTIGHT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODELS THROUGH 60\r\nHOURS...ON IVAN MOVING OVER OR AT LEAST VERY NEAR JAMAICA IN 36-48\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSPREAD IS MUCH LESS THAN IT HAS BEEN OVER THE PREVIOUS 2-3 DAYS.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THE MODEL SPREAD STILL BRACKETS THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS AGAIN REMAINS IN\r\nHOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT AND FUTURE TRACK OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 34N 48W. WATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE UPPER-LOW IS STRONGER THAN ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING. HOWEVER...THE MODEL THAT INITIALIZED THE LOW THE BEST\r\nAT 00Z WAS NOGAPS. THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...ALONG WITH\r\nTHE ECMWF MODEL...ON BRINGING IVAN ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL CUBA AND\r\nTHEN OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS\r\nTHE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST\r\nOUTLIER. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING THEIR\r\nTRACKS TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES IVAN\r\nACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA IN 96-120 HOURS. GIVEN THE BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AT 96- AND 120-HR.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\n...AND IF ANYTHING...WILL ONLY GET BETTER FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE MODULATED BY INNER-\r\nCORE CONVECTIVE CHANGES AND LAND INTERACTION SINCE TH WATER AHEAD OF\r\nIVAN IS ONLY FORECAST TO GET WARMER...AS WARM AS 30C SOUTH OF CUBA\r\nAND OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 13.9N  70.0W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 14.8N  72.0W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.2N  74.3W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 17.6N  76.4W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 19.1N  78.3W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 21.0N  80.2W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 24.0N  81.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N  81.0W    80 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS EARLIER THIS MORNING ABOUT 1141Z.\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...WINDS WERE 156 KNOTS WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED\r\nPRESSURE OF 917 MB AND 921 MB MEASURED BY A DROP. IVAN HAS AN\r\nOUTSTANDING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...HOWEVER...THE RING OF\r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 140 KNOTS. HURRICANES NORMALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN\r\nSUCH PEAK INTENSITY FOR A LONG TIME AND MOST LIKELY THERE WILL WE\r\nSOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE\r\nBETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 UNTIL IT REACHES CUBA.  THEREAFTER..THE EFFECTS\r\nOF LAND...INCREASING SHEAR AND LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nIVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS. THERE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nSURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE\r\nHIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE\r\nBETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nCOLLAPSE AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN\r\nAS IT CROSSES CUBA.  A RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nTHAN ANTICIPATED...WILL BRING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO AS INDICATED BY THE UK...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. A WEAKER RIDGE THAN ANTICIPATED COULD RESULT ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY THE EAST COAST OF\r\nFLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS. THE 4-5 DAY OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...CALLS FOR A SOLUTION IN\r\nBETWEEN...BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER WEST/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THEN FLORIDA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 14.5N  71.4W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 15.3N  73.3W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N  75.2W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N  77.3W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N  79.0W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 21.0N  80.5W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 24.0N  82.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W    85 KT INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nBOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN IN THE EYE\r\nOF IVAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS AT\r\nABOUT 921 MB BUT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 144\r\nKNOTS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL INTENSITY CAN BE LOWERED TO 130\r\nKNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THERE WERE SOME INDICATIONS FROM MICROWAVE\r\nDATA AND NOW CONFIRMED WITH THE PLANE THAT IVAN HAS A DOUBLE\r\nEYEWALL STRUCTURE. THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE RECENT SLIGHT WEAKENING.\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN CAT 4 AND 5 WHILE\r\nMOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT\r\nBEFORE REACHING CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nIVAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n13 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF\r\nTHE FORECAST BECAUSE THE HURRICANE WILL BE STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nSURROUNDING A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL MODELS ARE\r\nHIGHLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD...BRINGING THE HURRICANE\r\nNEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN CUBA WITH A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK CONTINUES TO BE\r\nUNCERTAIN SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MODELS\r\nDIVERGE. HOWEVER...MODELS FROM 12Z ARE IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nTHAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND IN GENERAL HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT\r\nWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE STEPPED FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER DATA ONBOARD THE NOAA P3 PLANE CURRENTLY\r\nINVESTIGATING IVAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 15.0N  72.5W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.1N  74.2W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N  76.2W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.8N  78.0W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 19.7N  79.3W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 21.5N  81.5W   140 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N  83.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 28.0N  83.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IVAN WAS STILL 923 MB...BUT\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO NEAR 130 KT. \r\nBASED MAINLY ON THE PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A\r\nPOSSIBLY GENEROUS 130 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND MAXIMA MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY WAS CONTRACTING...AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT IVAN MAY BE COMPLETING THE CURRENT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nCYCLE.  HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATES ANOTHER WIND\r\nMAXIMA FORMING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH MAY BE THE\r\nPRECURSOR OF THE NEXT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/11.  THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nFIRST 36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF IVAN SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nCONFIDENCE DIMINISHES BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC CURRENTLY NEAR 31N52W.  ALL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH DIFFERENCES ON\r\nHOW FAR EAST THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE THE\r\nMOST AND BRINGS IVAN NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP MORE RIDGING NORTH OF IVAN AND THUS KEEP A\r\nMORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NOGAPS AND GFS HAVE BOTH\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WHILE THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AFTER 72 HR TO\r\nBRING IT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE BIGGEST CONTROLLING\r\nFACTOR THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HR IS LIKELY TO BE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nCYCLES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT IVAN WILL COMPLETE THE\r\nCURRENT CYCLE BEFORE IT REACHES JAMAICA AND THUS INTENSIFY BEFORE\r\nHITTING THE ISLAND.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE\r\nWARM WATER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND CUBA IF THE STORM STRUCTURE REMAINS\r\nGOOD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND SHIPS ALL\r\nFORECAST SIGNIFICANT SHEAR TO DEVELOP ACROSS IVAN STARTING IN ABOUT\r\n48 HR...WHICH COULD SLOW OR STOP DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF THE WARM\r\nWATER.  GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...48 HR MIGHT\r\nBE TOO SOON.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT SHEAR UNTIL 72 HR AND HOLDS THE INTENSITY UP\r\nACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 15.5N  73.3W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 16.5N  74.8W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 17.7N  76.6W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 18.9N  78.3W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 19.9N  79.6W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 22.0N  81.5W   140 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 25.5N  82.5W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 29.5N  83.0W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS UP SEVERAL MB FROM THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND IS NOW\r\n929 MB.  THE OBSERVED FLIGHT LEVEL AND DROPSONDE WINDS SUPPORT\r\nABOUT 125 KT OR LESS MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND ...SO THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS LOWERED TO THIS VALUE.  THE DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKS\r\nA LITTLE RAGGED ON THE NORTH SIDE...BUT THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY\r\nGOING THROUGH FLUCTUATIONS.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND SSTS ARE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nTHE LAND MASS OF CUBA AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BRING\r\nABOUT SOME WEAKENING...BUT IVAN COULD STILL REMAIN A RATHER\r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nNORTH OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS IVAN IS STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD TO THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE GFS...UKMET...AND GFDL ALL SHOW A TRACK OVER JAMAICA...THEN\r\nWESTERN CUBA AND THEN FLORIDA.  THE NOGAPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nARE FURTHER WEST AND ALSO SHOW A TRACK NEAR JAMAICA AND THEN OVER \r\nWESTERN CUBA...BUT THEN MOVE IVAN OVER THE GULF TO THE WEST OF\r\nFLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER FLORIDA \r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.  IT REMAINS... OF\r\nCOURSE...MUCH TOO EARLY TO BE VERY CERTAIN ABOUT THE THREAT TO\r\nFLORIDA.\r\n\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DECIDED TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE\r\nPUTTING UP A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN\r\nCUBA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 15.9N  74.2W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.9N  75.6W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N  77.4W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 19.1N  78.9W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 20.4N  80.2W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 23.3N  81.9W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 27.0N  82.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 31.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nIVAN DOES NOT APPEAR AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nOUTFLOW.  YOU CAN SEE THE CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nEYEWALL ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.  SUPER RAPID SCAN IR\r\nIMAGES SHOW THE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE RING CURRENTLY RE-DEVELOPING\r\nAROUND THE EYE. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 934 MB BUT THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nREMAIN AT 144 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125\r\nKNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE IVAN MOVES\r\nNEAR OR OVER JAMAICA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY\r\nWEAKEN THE HURRICANE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN WILL RE-STRENGTHEN\r\nSOME BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA WHERE THE OCEAN IS QUITE\r\nWARM. ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE AND IVAN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN A DANGEROUS HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES.          \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n10 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS. AS\r\nTHE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN TOO...AND\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS STILL HIGH\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THIS EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BUT...IT BECOMES\r\nUNCERTAIN AFTER THE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA WHEN GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE COULD CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO OR COULD TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT FAVOR ONE\r\nSCENARIO MORE THAN THE OTHER...AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR AND EVENTUALLY OVER FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 16.5N  75.1W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.2N  76.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.3N  78.0W   115 KT NEAR JAMAICA\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 19.2N  79.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.5N  80.2W   125 KT APPROACHING CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N  82.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 28.0N  83.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 32.5N  82.5W    40 KT INLAND \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":34,"Date":"2004-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OR TRACK OF\r\nIVAN TODAY. THE HURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT EYE WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST AND PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS\r\nWELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY TO THE WEST. THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN\r\nOSCILLATING DURING THE DAY AND THE LAST READING FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 937 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO\r\n120 KNOTS BASED ON WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE IVAN MOVES NEAR OR OVER\r\nJAMAICA WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN MAY WEAKEN THE\r\nHURRICANE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN WILL RE-STRENGTHEN SOME BETWEEN\r\nTHE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CUBA WHERE THERE IS A VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.  ONCE IN THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND IVAN SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n11 KNOTS STEERED BY A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nBAHAMAS. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST WITH\r\nA DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN AFTER\r\nTHE HURRICANE CROSSES CUBA. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DUE\r\nTO THE NEW GUIDANCE...IT IS NOT PRUDENT TO MAKE A CHANGE AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW BASICALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 17.0N  76.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.7N  77.5W   115 KT NEAR JAMAICA\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.8N  78.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 19.9N  79.8W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 21.3N  81.1W   130 KT NEARING CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 24.7N  82.7W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 29.0N  83.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 34.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":35,"Date":"2004-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nDURING THE AFTERNOON...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT MONITORING IVAN REPORTED A PRESSURE FALL FROM 940 MB TO\r\n926 MB IN ABOUT 5 HOURS.  SINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN\r\nTHE 127-140 KT RANGE.  ONE CONUNDRUM IS THAT THE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT\r\nFIND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF HIGHER THAN 123 KT...WHICH WOULD NOT\r\nSUPPORT CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 135 KT BASED ON THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE ESTIMATED\r\nPRESSURE...AND THE PREMISE THAT THE WINDS ARE CATCHING UP WITH THE\r\nPRESSURE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND 300/9.  THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  IVAN SHOULD MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 48 HR AS THE\r\nRIDGE STRENGTHENS IN THE ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE BASIC\r\nSCNEARIO...WITH THE GFS CALLING FOR AN EARLIER TURN AND LANDFALL ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NOGAPS CALLING FOR A MORE\r\nNORWARD MOTION TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE OTHER DYNAMIC\r\nMODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TAKE IVAN TO THE\r\nFLORIDA BIG BEND REGION IN 96 HR.  A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE TRACK COULD BRING IVAN INLAND ANYWHERE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF\r\nFLORIDA.\r\n\r\nIVAN HAS WELL-DEFINED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SEEN IN AIRCRAFT...\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE...AND EARLIER JAMAICAN RADAR DATA.  THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION HAS MAYBE 6-12 HR TO\r\nRUN...AND THAT IS NOT ALLOWING FOR ANY LAND EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nCROSSES JAMAICA SHORTLY.  AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD\r\nREMAIN FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW IVAN TO REGAIN CATEGORY 5 STATUS\r\nAT SOME POINT DURING ITS FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE EYEWALL CYCLES. \r\nAFTER 48 HR...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...IVAN SHOULD REMAIN A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 17.5N  76.9W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.3N  77.9W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 19.3N  79.1W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 20.4N  80.4W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 21.8N  81.5W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 25.0N  83.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 30.0N  83.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 35.5N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":36,"Date":"2004-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nA U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY FLYING IN THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSUURE IS 924 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nSUPPORT 125 KT SURFACE WINDS.  HOWEVER THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING\r\nAN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND MAY SOON BE INTENSIFYING AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 130 KT.  WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nWARM SSTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGHENING FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO AS IVAN THREATENS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND THEN CUBA.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE TOOK A WESTWARD WOBBLE OVERNIGHT AND REMAINED FAR ENOUGH\r\nSOUTH OF JAMAICA SO THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO HAVE\r\nREMAINED OFFSHORE.  NEVERTHELESS...JAMAICA EXPERIENCED HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS AND IS STILL DOING SO.\r\n \r\nTHE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SAME FORECAST SCENARIO OF A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RUNS OF THE FOUR GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS...GFS...GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...ALL SHIFTED THEIR TRACK A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT.  SOME OR ALL OF THE SHIFT COULD BE DUE TO THE\r\nSHORT TERM WESTWARD WOBBLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE\r\nRIGHT OR EAST OF ALL THE MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN IS CLOSER\r\nTO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nINDICATE A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND SO\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 17.5N  78.0W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.3N  79.0W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 19.3N  80.1W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 20.6N  81.4W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 22.0N  82.5W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 25.9N  83.8W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 30.5N  84.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":37,"Date":"2004-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT IVAN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH\r\nA DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. AN ELONGATED\r\nUPPER-LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS IS DISRUPTING THE OUTFLOW A LITTLE BIT\r\nIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nELSEWHERE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 125 KNOTS ASSUMING SOME\r\nWEAKENING DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA. A BETTER ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE REACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.\r\nTHEREFORE IVAN COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING CUBA.\r\n \r\nTHE AVERAGE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN BASICALLY\r\nWESTWARD...PARALLELING THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES SHOW A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS FEATURE MAY KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nSLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHEAST TRACK FOR A LITTLE LONGER.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKNESS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN OF THE\r\nHURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS. A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD BASED ON\r\nTHE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 17.9N  78.7W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.5N  79.8W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 19.6N  81.0W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 21.0N  82.0W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 22.8N  83.0W   125 KT  OVER WESTERN CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 27.0N  84.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 31.5N  83.9W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 36.0N  82.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":38,"Date":"2004-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME GRADUAL CHANGES IN THE STEERING PATTERN OVER\r\nTHE LAST DAY OR SO WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE MOVING ON A\r\nTRACK NOT AS CLOSE TO SOUTH FLORIDA.  WHILE THIS MAY BE GOOD NEWS\r\nFOR SOUTH FLORIDA...IT IS NOT SO FOR OTHER REGIONS OF THE EASTERN\r\nGULF COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nAT THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS HAS DEVELOPED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nEASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA. IT APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN\r\nFORCING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...DELAYING THE\r\nEXPECTED NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD TURN. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TURN\r\nIS STILL FORECAST TO OCCUR AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA AND\r\nOVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TRACK INCREASES\r\nTHE HURRICANE RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND\r\nDECREASES IT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nSHIFTING GRADUALLY WESTWARD.\r\n\r\nAS WAS THOUGHT POSSIBLE...IVAN HAS REGAINED CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.\r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 161 KNOTS AT 700 MB AND AN\r\nEXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE OF 914 MB. THE DROP MEASURED 918 MB BUT IT\r\nHAD 29 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 145 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SKILLS IN PREDICTING CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY WITH SUCH EXTREMELY INTENSE HURRICANES...SO IVAN IS KEPT\r\nAT 145 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.\r\nNEVERTHERLESS... IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UNITES STATES AS A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 18.2N  79.3W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.7N  80.5W   145 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N  82.0W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 21.5N  83.1W   145 KT...NEARING CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 23.1N  84.0W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 26.5N  85.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 31.0N  85.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 36.0N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":39,"Date":"2004-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS DEEPENED A LITTLE MORE THIS EVENING AND THE LAST\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVATION...BY DROPSONDE FROM THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS...WAS 910 MB.  IVAN RANKS SIXTH FOR LOWEST ATLANTIC BASIN\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE BEHIND CAMILLE IN 1969 AND MITCH IN 1998 AT 905 MB\r\nEACH...ALLEN IN 1980 AT 899 MB...THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE AT\r\n892 MB...AND GILBERT IN 1988 AT 888 MB. BOTH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...AND IVAN COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE. HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nNO SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGES FOR SUCH EXTREME TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES.  IT SUFFICES TO SAY THAT IVAN IS LIKELY TO HAVE A\r\nDEVASTATING IMPACT OVER PORTIONS OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN\r\nCUBA. AFTER IVAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHOWS INCREASING SHEAR...SO SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\nNOTWITHSTANDING...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL AND\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE AIRCRAFT\r\nFIXES GIVE AN OVERALL MOTION OF ABOUT 285/7.  AS A WEAK LOW MOVES\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION...THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN...SO A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED. \r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...IVAN SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE THROUGH\r\nTHE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT IS\r\nON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nBEAR IN MIND THAT 3-4 DAY FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS\r\nSTILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE IVAN WILL\r\nMAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 18.3N  80.0W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N  81.0W   145 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 20.3N  82.4W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 21.6N  83.7W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 23.3N  84.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  85.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 31.0N  85.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":40,"Date":"2004-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40 CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION...48 AND 72 HOUR POSITIONS ARE OVER WATER....\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY IN THE HURRICANE.  THE LATEST\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS 918 MB AND THE HIGHEST 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND\r\nSPEED IS 140 KT AT A POSTION 12 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 135 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ABOVE.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTS A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM 27 N MI FROM THE\r\nCENTER WHICH COULD BE THE START OF ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE.  THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 145 KT\r\nAT 12 AND 24 HOURS.  INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS INDICATED BY THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AS IVAN MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER IVAN MOVES NORTH OF CUBA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8.  THE GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSELY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IVAN MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF\r\nFLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nREPEATING THE REMINDER FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BEAR IN MIND\r\nTHAT 3-4 DAY TRACK FORECASTS ARE FAR FROM EXACT...SO THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE IVAN WILL MAKE\r\nLANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES.   AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE EVEN\r\nLESS CERTAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 18.6N  80.8W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 19.2N  81.8W   145 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 20.6N  83.0W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 22.2N  84.1W   140 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 23.9N  84.8W   125 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 27.7N  85.6W   110 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 32.0N  85.3W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 36.5N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":41,"Date":"2004-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8.  IVAN HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...\r\nSO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY HAS PUSHED SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND HAS ERODED THE RIDGE FROM 500\r\nMB THROUGH THE 300 MB LEVEL. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...\r\nWITH A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN IVAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NORTH OF WESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS\r\nIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY BASED ON RECENT AIR\r\nFORCE AND NOAA RECON REPORTS. THEREFORE...THERE ALSO REMAINS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST TREND. IVAN REMAINS WELL\r\nORGANIZED AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL\r\nBE PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES...LIKE THE ONE IVAN IS CURRENTLY GOING\r\nTHROUGH...BUT LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM SSTS AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD AT LEAST KEEP IVAN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE UNTIL EXPECTED\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS OVER WESTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE STEERING ARE CURRENTLY WEAK AND MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE...THERE\r\nREMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE...AND AT\r\nWHAT INTENSITY...IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES IN\r\nTHE LONGER TIME PERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 19.0N  81.5W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.8N  82.4W   145 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.3N  83.5W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 22.9N  84.4W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 24.7N  85.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 28.3N  85.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 32.5N  84.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 37.0N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":42,"Date":"2004-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  IVAN\r\nHAS WOBBLED A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS HAS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE\r\nINDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE SWAPPED POSITIONS...WITH THE UKMET SHIFTING\r\nEASTWARD WHILE NOGAPS SHIFTED WESTWARD. THE LATEST 18Z UPPER-AIR\r\nDATA INDICATE A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THIS HAS ERODED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 90W LONGITUDE...\r\nAND THE SLOW EASTWARD EROSION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IVAN TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR\r\nWESTERN CUBA AND THEN TURN MORE NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER THE\r\nHURRICANE EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...AND\r\nREMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS DECREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON RECENT AIR\r\nFORCE AND NOAA RECON REPORTS. HAVING SAID THAT...A NEW RECON REPORT\r\nINDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 4 MB IN THE PAST 2 HOURS DOWN\r\nTO 916 MB. THE OUTER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL HAS ALSO DECREASED FROM 60\r\nNMI DOWN TO 30 NMI DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE RECENT PRESSURE\r\nFALL IS ABOUT ON TARGET FOR THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME STABLE\r\nAROUND 20 NMI. AT THAT POINT...RE-INTENSIFICATION TO CATEGORY 5\r\nSTRENGTH MAY BEGIN LIKE IT DID ABOUT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. THERE\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO BE PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY...MAINLY\r\nDUE TO ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BUT THE LOW SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS AND THE VERY WARM SSTS AHEAD OF IVAN SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nHURRICANE AT LEAST AT CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH UNTIL THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS REACHED IN 36-48 HOURS. SOME COOL UPWELLING IS EXPECTED\r\nFROM THAT POINT UNTIL U.S. LANDFALL OCCURS...WHICH SHOULD BRING\r\nABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING DESPITE THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE STEERING ARE CURRENTLY WEAK AND MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE...THERE\r\nREMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHEN AND WHERE...AND AT\r\nWHAT INTENSITY...IVAN WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES IN\r\nTHE LONGER TIME PERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 19.3N  82.5W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.9N  83.5W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 21.3N  84.7W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 23.1N  85.5W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 25.4N  86.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 28.0N  86.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 32.5N  85.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 37.5N  81.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":43,"Date":"2004-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON THIS EVENING FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL...700\r\nMB...WIND OF 155 KT IN THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nTHIS OBSERVATION SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KT...SO IVAN\r\nHAS REGAINED CATEGORY 5 STATUS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE\r\nLIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IF THE EYEWALL PASSES OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF EXTREME WESTERN CUBA A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN INTENSITY\r\nMAY OCCUR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR IVAN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nIS MOST PROBLEMATIC.  DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW WESTERLY\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nWHICH WOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR OVER IVAN ONCE IT ENTERS THE\r\nGULF.  ALSO...ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOWS\r\nEVEN MORE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAN\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.  HOWEVER THE GFS MODEL 200 MB WIND\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE DOMINATING THE\r\nCIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN GULF IN 2-3 DAYS...AND THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS MODEL RUN SHOWS LESS VERTICAL SHEAR AT THIS TIME FRAME THAN\r\nIN EARLIER RUNS.  WE ARE ASSUMING THAT SHEAR WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN\r\nWEAKENING THE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  NONETHELESS IVAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES\r\nTHE UNITED STATES COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE CONTINUES TO WOBBLE ALONG A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING...300/8. THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER\r\nVALLEY IS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IVAN.\r\nTHIS SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST VERY SOON. BY AROUND 48\r\nHOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT IVAN WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH\r\nTHE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARED\r\nTO YESTERDAY...THERE HAS BEEN INCREASE IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nSPREAD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nMORE TO THE WEST BUT IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK...AND LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 19.7N  83.2W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 20.8N  84.1W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 22.3N  85.0W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 23.9N  85.9W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 25.8N  86.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 34.0N  84.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  82.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":44,"Date":"2004-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nA GPS DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYEWALL AT 0510Z\r\nMEASURED AN AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 176 KT THROUGH THE LOWEST 500\r\nMETERS OF THE DROP.  THIS CONVERTS TO A SURFACE WIND OF 141 KT.  SO\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 140 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nCLOSE TO 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING IVAN BUT RELAXES THIS\r\nSHEAR A BIT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING IT SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 12\r\nHOURS BUT IVAN COULD STILL BE A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE WHEN IT\r\nREACHES THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE RIDGE AND ITS WEAKNESS ARE NOT VERY PRONOUNCED AND\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...10 KT OR LESS.  WHEN THE FORWARD MOTION IS SLOW ...THE\r\nDIRECTION OF MOTION IS LESS CERTAIN.  THIS IS SEEN IN THE SPREAD OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE GFS SHOWS A LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A LANDFALL IN\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...ALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE MODELS IS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...\r\nEXCEPT THE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72 HOURS AND IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF ALL\r\nGUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS.  IF I DID NOT HAVE A PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH...I WOULD HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK\r\nEVEN FURTHER TO THE LEFT.  MEANWHILE...SINCE THE MOTION IS STILL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE CENTER COULD MISS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA\r\nAND MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COULD EVEN APPROACH THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA IF A 300 DEGREE HEADING IS MAINTAINED FOR ANOTHER\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 20.2N  83.9W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 21.2N  84.8W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 22.5N  86.0W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 24.2N  87.1W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  87.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 30.0N  87.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 33.5N  85.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 36.0N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":45,"Date":"2004-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/07. THE LAST 4 RECON FIXES SUGGEST THAT\r\nIVAN HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD. THIS MAY\r\nJUST BE A TEMPORARY MOTION...BUT WITH INCREASING WEST TO\r\nNORTHWESTERLY 300 MB FLOW IMPINGING ON IVAN...THIS MAY TURN OUT TO\r\nBE MORE OF AN ESTABLISHED TREND. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER\r\n...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A 500\r\nMB LOW OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WITH A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WHICH HAS ERODED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS\r\nAND LOUISIANA TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE\r\nMID-LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS ALSO VEERED\r\nFROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE HAS ERODED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD\r\nDROPPED ANOTHER 2 MB IN THE PAST 2 HOURS WHILE THE EYE DIAMETER HAS\r\nSTABILIZED AT A RATHER LARGE 28-30 NMI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IVAN\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN ANOTHER 5 KT OR SO BEFORE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY\r\n300 MB SHEAR DISRUPTS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. IN THE LONGER\r\nTERM...IVAN WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS NEAR 30C...WITH THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASING AFTER 24 HOURS BEFORE IT PICKS UP AGAIN BY 48-60 HOURS.\r\nWHILE THE GULF WATERS ARE WARM...THE DEPTH OF THE WARM WATER IS\r\nRELATIVELY SHALLOW...EXCEPT FOR A WARM EDDY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nGULF. REGARDLESS...IVAN IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT U.S.\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 20.6N  84.4W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N  85.3W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 23.2N  86.5W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 25.2N  87.4W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 27.2N  87.7W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 31.0N  86.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  84.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 36.5N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":46,"Date":"2004-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/08. THE LAST FEW RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT\r\nIVAN HAS MADE A SLIGHT TURN TO RIGHT...OR TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.\r\nTHIS MOTION HAS LIKELY BEEN INDUCED BY A COMBINATION OF IMPINGING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO CAUSING THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF IVAN TO WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOWLY LIFT OUT NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK\r\nWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12HR. THIS IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE IVAN BACK TO A\r\nMORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTERWARDS...A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE\r\nU.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND ERODE THE\r\nRIDGE AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE...\r\nCOMBINED WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS SHOULD TURN\r\nIVAN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE MADE A\r\nLARGE SWING TO THE EAST FROM THE 13/00Z MODEL RUN. ONLY THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL TAKES IVAN OVER NEW ORLEANS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE\r\nMODEL CREATING TOO LARGE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IN TURN\r\nINDUCES A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT HELPS TO KEEP IVAN\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nNOGAPS SOLUTION IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE\r\nEXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF GFS TRACK WHICH IS ALREADY TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE CURRENT POSITION AND RECENT MOTION OF IVAN.\r\n \r\nTHE PLETHORA OF RECON REPORTS TODAY INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS\r\nMAINTAINED CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY OF ABOUT 140 KT. DESPITE THE LARGE\r\nEYE OF 25-30 NMI...THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO FALL. SINCE THE\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 910 MB AS\r\nMEASURED BY A DROPSONDE. SINCE THE EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT AS\r\nNOTED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SOME\r\nADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF 5 KT OR SO COULD OCCUR LATER\r\nTONIGHT. BY 24 HOURS OR SO...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY 300 MB SHEAR\r\nMAY DISRUPT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND BRING ABOUT SOME SLOW\r\nWEAKENING. IN THE LONGER TERM...MORE SIGNIFICANT WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT IVAN AS IT NEARS\r\nLANDFALL. REGARDLESS...IVAN IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OF\r\nAT LEAST 100 KT AT ITS U.S. LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 21.3N  84.9W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 22.7N  85.7W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 24.2N  86.7W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 26.1N  87.6W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 28.2N  87.7W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 31.5N  86.7W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 34.0N  84.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 36.5N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":47,"Date":"2004-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n\r\nA SHORT TIME AGO...THE EASTERN EYEWALL OF THE HURRICANE PASSED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.  THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE READINGS FROM\r\nBOTH THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 914 MB A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN WAS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...\r\nAND IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ENOUGH OF THE CORE INTERACTED WITH LAND\r\nTO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THEREFORE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 140 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS\r\nIVAN MOVES FARTHER NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER\r\nIVAN SHOULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED\r\nSTATES COAST. \r\n\r\nIVAN WOBBLED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO AND NOW THE\r\nESTIMATED MOTION IS JUST BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...\r\n325/8. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE HURRICANE IS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS SHOWS A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nAS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST...A SLIGHT TURN TO THE EAST COULD\r\nOCCUR AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RESPOND TO SLIGHT WESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW.  ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL\r\nAND GFS SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN IS ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE THE\r\nISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST AT THIS TIME.  ONCE AGAIN WE EMPHASIZE THAT...DUE TO FORECAST\r\nERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS THE\r\nEVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT.  THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH AREA IS AT\r\nRISK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 22.0N  85.4W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 23.1N  86.2W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 24.8N  87.3W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 26.6N  88.2W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 28.5N  88.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 32.0N  87.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  86.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 35.5N  83.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":48,"Date":"2004-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST WENT THROUGH THE EYE OF IVAN AND\r\nMEASURED A PRESSURE OF 924 MB WITH A DROP AND ESTIMATED 920 MB BY\r\nEXTRAPOLATION. MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 142 KNOTS AND WITH\r\nTHE PRESSURE RISING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE LITTLE LOWER. \r\nBECAUSE THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION YET...WE\r\nWILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 140 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IVAN MOVES FARTHER\r\nNORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...IVAN SHOULD\r\nSTILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST.\r\n \r\nIVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING WHICH CONTINUES TO\r\nBE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. IVAN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSPEED BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH\r\nBRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS. ONCE INLAND...THE GUIDANCE SLOWS DOWN A WEAKENED IVAN OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER\r\nSIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA.\r\n \r\nNOTE: DUE TO FORECAST ERRORS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nTRACK AS THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL POINT. THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WATCH\r\nAREA IS AT RISK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 22.6N  86.0W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 24.0N  86.6W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 26.0N  87.7W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 28.0N  88.3W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 30.0N  88.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 33.5N  86.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 37.0N  82.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":49,"Date":"2004-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE REPORTS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS\r\nWEAKENED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE\r\nCLOUD-FILLED EYE WAS UP TO 932 MB AND THE PEAK 700 MB WINDS HAVE\r\nCOME DOWN TO 128 KT.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 120 KT AND EVEN THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY A\r\nBIT HIGH.  THIS WEAKENING IS CONCURRENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE\r\nEYEWALL REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT CREW AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW\r\nEYEWALL ABOUT 40-50 NM ACROSS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET THIS MORNING\r\nCONTINUE TO INDICATE RESTRICTION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE...AS WELL AS VERY DRY AIR UNDERNEATH THE\r\nCIRRUS CANOPY.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE...SUGGESTS THAT IVAN MAY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN A BIT DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nRELAXATION OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR ABOUT THE TIME THAT IVAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PASS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF.  THIS COULD\r\nALLOW IVAN TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE FROM\r\nTHE BASIC EXPECTATION THAT IVAN WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7.  IVAN IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A SECOND MID-LEVEL HIGH IS\r\nCENTERED OVER LOUISIANA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  12Z RAOBS AND JET DATA INDICATE THAT THIS\r\nLATTER RIDGE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE 6Z GFS RUN.  \r\nTHIS MIGHT RESULT IN WEAKER STEERING AND A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nCOAST THAN THE GFS IS FORECASTING.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY ABOUT 125 MILES\r\nSEPARATING THE LANDFALLS OF THE ECMWF TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FROM THE UKMET TO ITS EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM. \r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL MOVE\r\nVERY SLOWLY OR STALL NEAR OR OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN 4 OR 5\r\nDAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A VERY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 23.4N  86.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 24.4N  86.9W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 26.3N  88.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 28.5N  88.5W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 30.5N  88.5W   110 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 36.5N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":50,"Date":"2004-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNING'S WEAKENING TREND HAS CEASED AND THE OUTER EYEWALL OF\r\nIVAN IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT REPORTED\r\nA CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 929 MB ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 115-120 KT\r\nFROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 120 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nCIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO EXPAND IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  IVAN IS\r\nSTILL EXPECTED TO PASS OVER A WARM GULF EDDY IN ABOUT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH COULD HELP IVAN TO REGAIN A LITTLE STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR JUST\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE LANDFALL INTENSITY CANNOT BE\r\nCONFIDENTLY FORECAST...IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nMOTION...AND THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS ALMOST NORTHWARD. IVAN IS\r\nMOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GROUPING\r\nOF THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS. THE ECMWF REMAINS AN\r\nOUTLIER WITH A TRACK ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL MOVE\r\nVERY SLOWLY OR STALL NEAR OR OVER THE APPALACHIANS IN 4 OR 5\r\nDAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE A VERY SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 24.2N  86.6W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 25.3N  87.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 27.2N  88.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 29.3N  88.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 31.5N  88.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":51,"Date":"2004-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT IVAN IS MAINTAINING 120 KT...CAT. 4...INTENSITY. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GPS DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA\r\nG-IV JET INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AS WELL.  THERE IS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE CORE WILL PASS OVER SOME HIGHER\r\nHEAT CONTENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.  AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE\r\nCOAST...A SHALLOWER LAYER OF WARM WATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR COULD CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...WE\r\nEMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...NOW 340/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IVAN IS BEING STEERED MAINLY BY THE FLOW ON\r\nTHE WEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nAMONGST THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS ON THE\r\nPREDICTED TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 5\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT IVAN WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES BUT\r\nRATHER WILL STALL OR MOVE ERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN\r\nAPPALACHIANS.  SO THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nSHOWS NO MOVEMENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nSINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY\r\nSTRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH.  NOTE THAT\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE AT\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 25.1N  87.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 26.6N  87.8W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 28.6N  88.2W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 30.6N  88.2W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 32.6N  87.6W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 35.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 35.5N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 35.5N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":52,"Date":"2004-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nTHE FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION\r\nSURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. MOST OF THE\r\nSTRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT THIS\r\nTIME. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED THE EYE AND ESTIMATED A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 935 MB...938 MB FROM A DROP AND FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 132 KNOTS. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120\r\nKNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BUT WE\r\nEMPHASIZE THAT IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL AND DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nIVAN IS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340\r\nDEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN STEERING AND THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHERLY TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL\r\nWITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH GUIDANCE. ONCE IVAN MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS...STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE AND IVAN COULD STALL OR MOVE\r\nERRATICALLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. IVAN COULD PRODUCE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IN THAT AREA.\r\n \r\nSINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CARRY\r\nSTRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS WELL INLAND ALONG ITS PATH.  NOTE THAT\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE A\r\nHURRICANE AT ABOUT 12 HOURS AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 26.1N  87.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 27.6N  88.0W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 29.6N  88.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 32.0N  87.7W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 33.5N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 35.0N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":53,"Date":"2004-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION CONCLUDED AT 12Z...AND THE NEXT\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE ARRIVING MOMENTARILY.  PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n127 KT DURING THE LAST PASS SUPPORT ABOUT 115 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE 50 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS.  COMPETING INFLUENCES MAKE\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT.  THE HURRICANE IS NOW PASSING\r\nOVER A WARM GULF EDDY WHICH COULD AID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH\r\nDATA COLLECTED BY A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY SUGGEST THE\r\nEDDY MAY NOT BE AS POTENT AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT USING SATELLITE\r\nMEASUREMENTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE AT THE PRESENT TIME WITH NO SHEAR EVIDENT.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR IN THE WEST\r\nSEMICIRCLE THAT COULD STILL PENETRATE THE CORE...AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR LANDFALL.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT I\r\nEXPECT SOME NET WEAKENING OF IVAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT STILL\r\nEXPECT IT TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11...AND IVAN LOOKS TO BE MAKING\r\nTHE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN.  IVAN REMAINS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST...\r\nALTHOUGH THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A BIT FASTER TO THE COASTLINE. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UNTIL WELL AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE\r\nREMNANTS OF IVAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nAPPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 27.3N  88.0W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 28.9N  88.2W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 31.0N  87.9W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 32.8N  87.4W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 35.5N  84.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":54,"Date":"2004-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN EXPANSION OF COLD EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ON THE WEST SIDE...AND A CLEARING OUT OF\r\nTHE EYE. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 933 MB...AND THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK\r\nWINDS AT 7000 FT OF 132 KT.  UNDERNEATH THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THE\r\nSTEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER REPORTED 108 KT.  IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT IVAN IS BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE WARM POOL OVER WHICH IT\r\nHAS BEEN TRAVERSING TODAY. THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE NOT YET INCREASED\r\nBUT MAY DO SO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS EXIST JUST OFFSHORE...AND LITTLE NET CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nIVAN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED\r\nAT 355/12. THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST...WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED IN ABOUT 9 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IVAN\r\nHAS A VERY LARGE WINDFIELD AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL MOVE ONSHORE\r\nMUCH SOONER THAN THAT.  THE ECMWF MODEL FINALLY GAVE UP ON A NEW\r\nORLEANS LANDFALL TODAY...RESULTING IN A WELL-CLUSTERED GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE UNTIL WELL AFTER LANDFALL...WHERE THERE ARE A VARIETY OF\r\nPOSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLOODING EVENT OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...PERHAPS 150 MILES OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 28.4N  88.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 30.2N  88.3W   115 KT...ON THE COASTLINE\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 32.2N  88.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 33.8N  87.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 35.0N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":55,"Date":"2004-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n\r\nTHE EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT ON THE MOBILE\r\nWSR-88D RADAR...THERE HAS BEEN AN EROSION OF THE SOUTHWEST\r\nEYEWALL.  ALSO...THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST.  GPS DROPSONDE DATA AT 200 MB FROM THIS EVENING'S\r\nNOAA G-IV JET MISSION DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT OF IVAN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE\r\nHURRICANE AT 250 AND 300 MB.  NO LARGE CHANGES IN STRENGTH ARE\r\nLIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST...AND IVAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. \r\n\r\nOVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY EAST OF\r\nNORTH...ABOUT 010/010.  BECAUSE OF THIS SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN\r\nHEADING...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.  THIS\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS AS WELL AS THE\r\nLATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE RUN.  \r\n\r\nSINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES ALONG ITS\r\nTRACK.  NOTE THAT THE INLAND GUST FACTOR IS QUITE LARGE BECAUSE\r\nHIGH MOMENTUM AIR...ALOFT...CAN BE BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE IN THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CELLS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE FORWARD PROGRESS OF IVAN BEING BLOCKED.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS IVAN STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND\r\nSLOWLY DISSIPATING IN THAT AREA.  OBVIOUSLY THIS COULD BE A MAJOR\r\nFLOOD EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE COMING\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 29.3N  88.1W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 31.0N  87.9W   110 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 33.0N  87.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.5N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 35.5N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 36.0N  84.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":56,"Date":"2004-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF\r\nSHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON\r\nHURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100\r\nKNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...UP TO ABOUT\r\n150 MILES ALONG ITS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER....IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS IVAN\r\nSTALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN\r\nTHAT AREA.  OBVIOUSLY THIS COULD BE A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE COMING DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 30.9N  87.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 32.5N  87.2W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 34.7N  86.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 37.5N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 36.5N  83.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivan","Adv":57,"Date":"2004-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nIVAN IS MOVING 010/12 ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA.  WHILE IT IS\r\nWEAKENING...A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA INDICATES\r\nTHAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT GETS FARTHER\r\nINLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION BY 24 HR.  THEY SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nWILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN\r\nWILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 72 HR. \r\nBASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\nSTORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY...AND THE\r\nTHREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS IVAN WEAKENS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL TODAY. \r\nTHERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 32.0N  87.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 33.6N  86.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 35.2N  85.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 36.5N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":58,"Date":"2004-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  58\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE IVAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE\r\nMOVING ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.  WSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS FROM\r\nBIRMINGHAM SHOW 50-65 KT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A\r\nDEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR.  IT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE BY ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nWILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN\r\nWILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR...\r\nAND THEN TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR.  BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR BEING JUST A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\nIVAN WILL REMAIN A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\nTHERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 33.1N  87.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 34.5N  85.9W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 35.6N  84.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.3N  82.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 36.3N  80.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 35.0N  80.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivan","Adv":59,"Date":"2004-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  59\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF IVAN HAS\r\nBECOME LESS DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST SURFACE\r\nWINDS REPORTS HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN AROUND 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/12. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nCOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL GRADUALLY CURVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD...AND DECELERATE THROUGH 48 HR.\r\nAFTER THAT... A HIGH AMPLITUDE SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S....WHICH WILL ACT TO\r\nBLOCK IVAN AND TURN THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nOVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE REMNANT IVAN CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT...AT LEAST IN\r\nTHE MID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nA MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT APPEARS LIKELY THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS OVER\r\nMUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.  THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO\r\nTHREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nTONIGHT AND FRIDAY.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ON IVAN. FUTURE INFORMATION\r\nCAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34\r\nKWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...FRIDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 34.3N  86.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 35.2N  85.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 35.9N  83.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 36.0N  81.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 35.3N  81.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 34.0N  83.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivan","Adv":67,"Date":"2004-09-22 23:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  67\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE\r\nDEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY\r\nCONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON\r\nTHE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE \r\nAND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nONCE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA REACHED THE GULF OF MEXICO IT BEGAN TO \r\nGRADUALLY DEVELOP CONVECTION AND A SURFACE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...RECON DATA AND BUOYS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12 KNOTS. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER THE UNITED STATES. THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS\r\nAS WELL AS THE WIND RADII REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO SARGENT TEXAS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2300Z 26.9N  89.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 27.5N  91.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N  93.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.0N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N  95.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  96.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":68,"Date":"2004-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  68\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nDISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE...THERE IS A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KNOTS AT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED\r\nTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF IVAN. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nIVAN COULD RELAX SOME...ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KNOTS. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION...AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND THE CENTER\r\nSHOULD MOVE INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL...THE REMNANT LOW\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 27.4N  90.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 28.4N  91.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 29.5N  94.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  96.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 32.0N  96.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":69,"Date":"2004-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  69\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n\r\nIVAN REMAINS A POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM...WITH MOST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF THE SHEAR RELAXING...AND\r\nSOME INTENSIFICATION...BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. \r\nHOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO HAPPEN IS CLOSING.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. IVAN IS BEING STEERED MAINLY BY\r\nA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH THE GFS MODEL\r\nPREDICTS TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THUS SOME SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SHARP\r\nLEFTWARD TURN IN 24 TO 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT IVAN WILL NOT BE A DEEP ENOUGH CYCLONE TO\r\nRESPOND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THIS TROUGH. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN BETWEEN THE\r\nMEDIUM AND SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACKS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 28.2N  91.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 29.2N  93.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 30.1N  95.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 30.7N  96.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  97.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 31.1N  98.0W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":70,"Date":"2004-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  70\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FIRED OFF NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING AND AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FOUND 70 KT 1500\r\nFT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...OR EQUAL TO ABOUT 56 KT SURFACE WINDS...\r\nAND A PRESSURE OF 998 MB. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nWEAKENED AND A SUBSEQUENT PASS THROUGH THE CENTER INDICATED A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A\r\nBLEND OF A 45 KT SURFACE WIND SUPPORTED BY THE 1000 MB PRESSURE...\r\nAND THE 56 KT SURFACE WIND CONVERSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/13. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND BE INLAND WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST.\r\nAFTERWARDS...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nTO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL\r\nALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED SLOWLY WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD BY A LARGE RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS TRACK\r\nSCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL...AND THE MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nWHILE IVAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCER...ITS SLOW\r\nFORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING UP LARGE AMOUNTS\r\nOF GULF MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 29.2N  92.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.0N  94.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  95.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.6N  96.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.4N  97.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 29.5N  97.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivan","Adv":71,"Date":"2004-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  71\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER THE EARLIER A BURST OF CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS\r\nDWINDLED AND THE WIND HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS BASED ON THE LAST\r\nRECON REPORT AROUND 17Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. IVAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND BE INLAND WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA OR THE UPPER-TEXAS COAST.\r\nAFTERWARDS...RAPID WEAKENING WILL RESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.\r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED SLOWLY\r\nWEST AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY A LARGE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nBEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE TRACK SCENARIO REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nSHALLOW BAM MODEL AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. WHILE A FEW MODELS\r\nTAKE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN\r\n36-48 HOURS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OF MORE THAN\r\n40 KT SHOULD PREVENT ANY REDEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.\r\n \r\nWHILE IVAN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A PROLIFIC WIND PRODUCER...ITS SLOW\r\nFORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAY BRING UP LARGE AMOUNTS\r\nOF GULF MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 29.4N  93.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.0N  94.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 30.4N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 30.2N  95.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 29.6N  96.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 28.8N  97.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivan","Adv":72,"Date":"2004-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  72\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nRECON AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT CENTER OF IVAN MOVED INLAND JUST\r\nTO THE WEST OF CAMERON LOUISIANA. WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. \r\nBECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS COULD BE A RAIN\r\nMAKER FOR THE REGION. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 29.8N  93.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  95.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 29.5N  96.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 29.0N  97.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivan","Adv":73,"Date":"2004-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  73\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS MOVED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ACROSS PORT ARTHUR TEXAS WHILE IT CONTINUES TO\r\nWEAKEN.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN...AND MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS IVAN SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IVAN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. \r\nSUBSEQUENT PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 30.2N  94.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 30.4N  95.1W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 30.1N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 29.2N  96.7W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 28.0N  97.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 365 NMI SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE AZORES ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND IN\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTEN. AT 09/00Z...SHIP FQFM LOCATED 120 NMI NORTH...AND SHIP FQWZ\r\nLOCATED 140 NMI EAST...OF THE CENTER REPORTED 20-KT SURFACE WINDS\r\nAND SEAS RANGING FROM 13-19 FEET. BOTH REPORTS WERE OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. ALSO...A 08/2131Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED\r\n25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON\r\nTHIS INFORMATION AND A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09. T.D. TEN IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...WHICH ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS\r\nTHE CYCLONE ACROSS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT\r\n...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED\r\nBY A LARGER EXTRATOPICAL LOW AND/OR FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BY 72-96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE\r\nAZORES. HOWEVER...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IN\r\nSOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WINDS COULD BRIEFLY\r\nREACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT THE OVERALL SHEAR PATTERN AND\r\nRELATIVELY COOL SSTS FAVOR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SUSTAINED WIND\r\nSPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 35 KT AND 43 KT IN\r\n12- AND 24-HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 35.8N  34.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 36.6N  32.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 37.2N  31.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 37.8N  28.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 38.3N  26.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 39.5N  23.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STRIPPED THE DEPRESSION OF ALL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREVERSE IN A DAY OR SO IT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN MAGNITUDE...AND\r\nWITH THE SYSTEM OVER 25C WATER IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING\r\nCONVECTION EXCEPT IN SHORT SPURTS.  DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/5...AND\r\nIT WILL PROBABLY SLOW FURTHER NOW THAT IT IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE REMNANT CLOUD SWIRL WILL\r\nBECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 36.6N  33.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 37.0N  32.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 37.0N  31.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.5N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 36.0N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES AS A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...INCREASINGLY REMOVED\r\nFROM THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER 200 NM AWAY AND SPREADING OVER\r\nTHE AZORES. SINCE THE LOW LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.\r\nSHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE\r\nSWIRL ARE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS MAY\r\nEXIST IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nSPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER SUB 26C WATER.\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE LOW CENTER HAS TURNED TO THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST...A MOTION THAT WAS EXPECTED BUT NOT SO SOON. OF\r\nTHE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...ONLY THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE A HANDLE\r\nON THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE\r\nSYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TO THE AZORES...BUT THEY APPARENTLY HAVEN'T\r\nNOTICED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY SHEARED OFF.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...OR IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM MET OFFICE UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nFQNT21 EGRR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 35.8N  33.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 35.2N  33.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 34.5N  32.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 34.0N  31.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 33.5N  30.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG WITH SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.  THERE IS\r\nPRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...HOWEVER AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE\r\nPATH OF THE DEPRESSION COULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 290/10.  A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND\r\nHURRICANE IVAN IS FORECAST BY MOST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST\r\nWITH AN ASSOCIATED NE-SW ORIENTED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS SCENARIO COULD CAUSE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION TO\r\nDEVELOP LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 16.0N  60.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.7N  62.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N  64.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N  66.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.4N  68.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 21.4N  71.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N  73.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE THAT TD-11\r\nSTILL HAS A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND UW CIMSS\r\nANALYZED SATELLITE WINDS SHOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS OF WNW SHEAR ON THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN THOUGH AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nPRODUCE 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF SHEAR AT 60-72 HOUR. THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER THIS TIME AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nSCENARIO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. TD-11 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLARGE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. A PORTION OF THIS SAME RIDGE IS WEDGED\r\nBETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN AND IS FORECAST BY MOST\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS\r\nSCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER ABOUT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY IVAN.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 16.2N  61.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N  62.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N  64.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.4N  66.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N  67.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N  69.6W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.7N  71.3W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 24.8N  73.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nA RECENT WIND OBSERVATION FROM THE ISLAND OF DESIRADE WAS SSW/32\r\nKTS. AND THE PRESSURE HAS GONE DOWN ANOTHER MILLIBAR TO 1009.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  SATELLITE T NUMBERS ARE\r\nT2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...AN AVERAGE OF ABOUT 32 KTS. THE\r\nSYSTEM IS IN A LIGHT SHEAR REGIME AT THE MOMENT AND SHOULD DEVELOP\r\nINTO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE UPPER LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM THAT MAY PLAY A ROLE IN\r\nTHE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS\r\nFROM THE NORTH...PART OF THE OUTFLOW FROM IVAN... WILL IMPACT THE\r\nSYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE GFS 200 MILLIBAR WIND FIELD\r\nANIMATIONS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY\r\nSTRUGGLE AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nOVER COME THIS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.  THE SHIPS SOLUTION IS\r\nFOLLOWED CLOSELY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. TD-11 IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLARGE MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE. A PORTION OF THIS SAME RIDGE IS WEDGED\r\nBETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND HURRICANE IVAN AND IS FORECAST BY MOST\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS\r\nSCENARIO SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AFTER ABOUT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NW AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY IVAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 16.6N  62.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.4N  63.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N  65.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N  67.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  68.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.6N  70.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N  72.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N  73.4W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN\r\nHAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING FEATURES TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM JEANNE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT...\r\nFROM AFWA. RECON WILL REACH JEANNE AROUND 18Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/10. THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION AS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPOSITION AND FORECAST TRACK BASED ON RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION MAY JUST BE DUE TO\r\nDISRUPTION OF THE SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION BY SOME OF THE LARGER\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS. A MOTION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nRESUME SHORTLY...BUT THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OWING TO THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION. THE NHC TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS TURNING JEANNE MORE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS...\r\nUKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS TRENDING MORE WESTWARD. A STRONG RIDGE\r\nIS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM BERMUDA TO\r\nFLORIDA...WHICH SEPARATES T.S. JEANNE FROM HURRICANE IVAN. ONLY THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE IN THE LATER\r\nPERIODS. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE AND EVEN\r\nBUILD IT SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE FORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nWESTWARD AT 96- AND 120-HOURS SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nJEANNE IS CURRENTLY UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nPATTERN TO THE EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE ONLY\r\nIMMEDIATE HINDERING INFLUENCE TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS DRY\r\nAIR PUNCHING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...\r\nSURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED\r\nAND STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL JEANNE PASSES OVER OR\r\nNEAR PUERTO RICO. IN THE LONGER TERM...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO PASS\r\nNEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH\r\nRESULTS IN 20-25 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE\r\nINTENSITY IS LEVELED OFF UNTIL 120 HOURS...WHEN THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 16.6N  63.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N  64.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.3N  66.3W    55 KT...INLAND PUERTO RICO\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.2N  68.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N  69.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.2N  71.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  73.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N  75.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM JEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.\r\nTHE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 998 MB...DOWN 4 MB IN 2 HOURS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nOF 58 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 46-KT SURFACE WIND...AND THE IMPROVED\r\nAPPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SINCE THE RECON FIX.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/08...ALTHOUGH THE TWO RECON FIX\r\nPOSITIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION COULD BE CLOSER TO 285 DEGREES. THE\r\n18Z 500 MB HEIGHT AT SAN JUAN HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS\r\n...SUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS\r\nHOLDING STEADY. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE BAM\r\nMODELS AND NOGAPS...MOVE JEANNE IMMEDIATELY NORTHWESTWARD AND TAKE\r\nTHE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN\r\nTHE PAST 18-HR MOTION OF JEANNE AND THE 18Z SAN JUAN UPPER-AIR\r\nDATA. SO IN THE SHORT TERM...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE\r\nSOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN SKIRT THE\r\nNORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AFTER THAT THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nWHILE THE SPECIFIC SYNOPTIC DETAILS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED NORTH OF JEANNE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH\r\nTO ALLOW JEANNE TO MOVE ALMOST DUE NORTH AFTER 72 HOURS ALONG 70W\r\nLONGITUDE. GIVEN THE GFS RECENT POOR HISTORY OF FORECASTING TOO\r\nWEAK OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS. IT SHOULD BE\r\nPOINTED OUT THAT THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP A STRONG RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN JEANNE AND IVAN THROUGH 120 HOURS...AND TAKE THE CYCLONE\r\nWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nJEANNE HAS DEVELOPED AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE CYCLONE NEARS PUERTO RICO. THIS\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN...COMBINED WITH NEARLY 29C SSTS AND A VERY TIGHT\r\nINNER-CORE WIND FIELD AS NOTED IN THE RECON DATA...SHOULD ALLOW\r\nJEANNE TO POSSIBLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES\r\nPUERTO RICO. AFTER THAT...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO HISPANIOLA SHOULD\r\nINHIBIT STRENGTHENING UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS...WHEN JEANNE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...AND NORTHERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 16.8N  63.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.4N  65.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.1N  67.0W    65 KT...INLAND PUERTO RICO\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.9N  68.6W    65 KT...NEAR DOM. REPUBLIC\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.7N  70.0W    65 KT...NEAR DOM. REPUBLIC\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.9N  72.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  74.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.5N  75.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER IN\r\nTHE DAY. TWO DEEP CONVECTIVE AREAS ARE PRESENT WITH THE NORTHERN\r\nMOST ONE BEING NEAR THE CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nSOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...NOT UNUSUAL FOR A DEVELOPING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT A POSSIBLE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER MAY BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A NEW CENTER AS THE\r\nRADAR ALSO INDICATES SOME VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES TO THE NORTH\r\nOF A POSSIBLE CENTER. T NUMBERS ARE UP FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND\r\nGIVE 55 KT. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE\r\nSYSTEM THE INITIAL WINDS ARE HELD AT 50 KTS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07...A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS HOLDING\r\nSTEADY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL\r\nMOTION. IT CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND GUNS CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST JEANNE TO INTENSIFY TO A\r\nHURRICANE. A LOT OF THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH\r\nTHE SHIPS FORECASTS SAYS IS IMPROVING. I HAVE HELD THE SAME\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE UNTIL WE SEE IF THE\r\nSYSTEM CAN GET RE-ORGANIZED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 17.2N  64.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.7N  65.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 18.6N  67.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N  68.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N  70.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  72.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N  74.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N  75.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nSAN JUAN RADAR DEPICTS A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED OUTER\r\nCURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE....AND SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE CIRCULATION LIES WELL WITHIN THE MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND ALSO REVEALS THE OUTER CURVED BAND.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE WEST.  BASED ON THE IMPROVING\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE\r\nFOR JEANNE UNTIL 18Z TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...BASED PRIMARILY ON TRACKING A POORLY-DEFINED\r\nCENTER ON SAN JUAN RADAR...IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. JEANNE IS\r\nCURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE\r\nJEANNE ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN\r\nHOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS HAS NOW MOVED MORE TO THE WEST IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...BUT THE GFDL\r\nHAS ALSO MOVED FARTHER LEFT AND IS NOW THE WESTERN OUTLIER. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD\r\nAT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO\r\nADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY WEST...AND A BIT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGE.  THROUGH 36 HOURS...MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS ENOUGH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT\r\nINTENSIFICATION...BUT INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION RATE.  ONCE JEANNE EMERGES NORTH OF THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES...IT MAY STRUGGLE UNDER STRONGER NORTHERLY SHEAR. \r\nHOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INSIST JEANNE WILL\r\nSURVIVE THE SHEAR...UNTIL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE VERY\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...LEVELLING\r\nOFF THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN RESUMING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING ON DAYS\r\nFOUR AND FIVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 17.5N  65.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 18.1N  66.5W    60 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.1N  68.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N  69.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 20.8N  71.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N  74.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N  76.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 27.0N  77.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT\r\nJEANNE MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nPRIMARY CONVECTION...AND THE OUTER BANDING HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT\r\nRAGGED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  DOPPLER RADAR WINDS\r\nSUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55-60 KT.  BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT\r\nTHIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN\r\nHOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE\r\nTO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE GFDL IS A LEFT OUTLIER...CALLING FOR JEANNE TO TRACK\r\nACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND THE BAHAMAS TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY\r\nDAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nWITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL\r\nAND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE AND CAUSING\r\nSHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM PERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS\r\nTO ALMOST INSTANT DISSIPATION.  MOST LIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE\r\nWILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72\r\nHR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nGRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.  ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION. \r\nPASSAGE OVER PUERTO RICO MAY AT LEAST SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND IF\r\nJEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS ARE OFF\r\nON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT JEANNE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nREACHING PUERTO RICO.  EVEN IF IT DOES NOT...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS\r\nALOFT SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR WILL AFFECT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 17.8N  65.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 18.3N  66.9W    65 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 19.2N  68.6W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.2N  70.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.1N  71.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N  74.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N  77.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nJEANNE TRIED TO FORM AN EYE IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST\r\nAS IT WAS MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO.  WSR-88D\r\nDATA FROM SAN JUAN INDICATES IT RETAINS A GOOD STRUCTURE ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CURRENT DOPPLER WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF\r\nHURRICANE FORCE.  THIS AGREES WITH AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT...WHICH FOUND 57 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS IT FLEW\r\nAROUND THE PUERTO RICO COAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JEANNE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT\r\nTHIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST AND MOVE JEANNE ON A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THE SOLUTIONS SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...OWING TO DIFFERENCES IN\r\nHOW EACH MODEL HANDLES A WEAKENING IVAN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR JEANNE\r\nTO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR.  WHILE THE\r\nGFDL IS STILL A LEFT OUTLIER...IT HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS.THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF\r\nALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE.  WHILE THE OUTFLOW HAS\r\nIMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR\r\nAXIS IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF JEANNE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A\r\nVARIETY OF IDEAS FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...FROM\r\nPERSISTING FOR THREE OR MORE DAYS TO QUICK DISSIPATION.  MOST\r\nLIKELY ENOUGH THIS FEATURE WILL CREATE ENOUGH SHEAR TO AT LEAST\r\nSLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR 48-72 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER THAT...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.  ANOTHER\r\nCOMPLICATION IS LAND INTERACTION.  IF JEANNE MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALL BETS WILL BE OFF ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN UP FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS UNTIL JEANNE MOVES AWAY...AS EVEN SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE COULD MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 18.4N  66.5W    60 KT...OVER PUERTO RICO\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 18.8N  67.7W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.7N  69.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 20.6N  70.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.6N  72.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  74.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 26.0N  76.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 29.5N  77.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN\r\nMOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FOR THE\r\nPAST 4-5 HOURS...BUT A MORE REPRESENTATIVE 12-HOUR MOTION IS 295\r\nDEGREES. ONCE JEANNE CLEARS THE TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE WESTERN END\r\nOF PUERTO RICO...IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING BACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION...HOWEVER...COULD BRING JEANNE NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY. IN THE LONGER\r\nTERM...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT 72-96 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS\r\nDIVERGE WIDELY ON HOW AND IF THE RIDGE ERODES DUE TO IVAN STALLING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE GFS HAS BEEN VERIFYING THE BEST WITH\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IT MAINTAINS\r\nMORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AT 120 HOURS. WHETHER IVAN\r\nMOVES NORTHEASTWARD OR TURNS BACK SOUTHWESTWARD LIKE MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING...SOME RIDGING SHOULD BE MAINTAINED\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY SINCE JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN A SMALL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OWING TO THE\r\nMORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND THE SPEED WAS DECREASED AFTER\r\n96 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nJEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION AND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE HAS EVEN APPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IF JEANNE WAS NOT\r\nINTERACTING WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...IT LIKELY WOULD\r\nBE A HURRICANE. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE STRUCTURE IN BOTH RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA...JEANNE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nOVER THE MONA PASSAGE. IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...POSSIBLE INTERACTION\r\nWITH HISPANIOLA AND MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AFTERWARDS...THOUGH...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE AND\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 18.5N  67.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N  68.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  70.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.9N  72.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N  73.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 23.6N  75.3W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 26.0N  77.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 28.5N  78.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 295/8. JEANNE HAS ACTUALLY\r\nBEEN MOVING DUE WEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO\r\nAND THE MONA PASSAGE FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT A MORE\r\nREPRESENTATIVE 24-HOUR MOTION IS 295 DEGREES. THIS MOTION...COULD\r\nBRING JEANNE NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC\r\nLATER TODAY. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE JEANNE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS BUT AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS WHICH HAS\r\nIMPORTANT RAMIFICATIONS FOR THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS. THE\r\nGFDL...NOGAPS...UKMET AND GUNS END UP NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US\r\nCOASTLINE IN 120 HOURS. THE GFS TRACK MOVES A LOT SLOWER AND ALLOWS\r\nAN AMPLIFYING RIDGE FROM THE NORTH TO BLOCK THE SYSTEM AND\r\nEVENTUALLY MOVE IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  \r\n \r\nJEANNE HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...AS SEEN BY THE\r\nSAN JUAN RADAR...AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE IS VISIBLE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE LATEST RECON REPORTED A 989 MB PRESSURE AND A\r\nDROPSONDE MEASURED A 63 KT SURFACE WIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. \r\nOBVIOUSLY...IT IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY BUT IS ABOUT TO\r\nINTERACT WITH THE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. \r\nTHEREFORE...I AM GOING TO KEEP IT AT 60 KTS DURING THIS INTERACTION\r\nAND MAKE IT A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES AWAY FROM LAND IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS CALL FOR SLOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT EVEN WITH THE MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE SYSTEM IN\r\nTHE MEDIUM RANGE.  THE SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN IN THE LONGER RANGE AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 18.8N  68.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.4N  69.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.4N  70.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 21.2N  72.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N  74.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.4N  77.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 27.0N  78.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 30.0N  79.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATED THAT JEANNE\r\nREACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE EASTERN TIP OF HISPANIOLA. \r\nPEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 88 KT...AND MULTIPLE DROPSONDE SURFACE\r\nESTIMATES BETWEEN 63 AND 69 KT SUPPORT THE 70 KT INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING 275/6.  JEANNE IS\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THIS INTERVAL.  AFTER THAT\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN...WHICH COULD BE ANWHERE FROM THE\r\nTENNESSEE VALLEY TO CAPE HATTERAS IN THREE DAYS.  THE MORE EASTERN\r\nSOLUTIONS RESULT IN A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF JEANNE THROUGH 5\r\nDAYS...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET.  MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACKS...TOWARD FLORIDA...ARE INDICATED BY THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEAK\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY CHOOSE\r\nBETWEEN THE SCENARIOS OUTLINED ABOVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  IT\r\nIS QUITE CURIOUS THAT THE SUPERENSEMBLE 5-DAY POINT LIES TO THE\r\nLEFT OF ALL OF ITS COMPONENTS...BUT THIS CAN HAPPEN GIVEN THE WAY\r\nTHAT BIAS-CORRECTING MODEL IS CONSTRUCTED.\r\n\r\nJEANNE SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER HISPANIOLA...BUT\r\nEVENTUALLY SHOULD COME UNDER LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE REMNANTS OF IVAN.  THIS...AND THE WARM WATERS OF THE\r\nBAHAMAS...SHOULD ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 18.8N  68.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  70.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N  71.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.1N  73.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  75.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  76.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 26.5N  78.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 30.0N  79.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7 AS JEANNE CONTINUES TO EDGE INLAND OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  DESPITE ITS TREK OVER\r\nLAND...IT HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE VISIBLE ON THE\r\nSAN JUAN NWS RADAR WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES.  CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE WARMED HOWEVER...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE\r\nDROPPED JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nRIGHT-LEANING GFS AND LEFT-LEANING GFDL MODELS.  THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE GFS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD...SIGNIFICANTLY NARROWING THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING\r\nTHAT THE REMNANTS OF IVAN WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU.S. COAST TO DEFLECT JEANNE'S TRACK TO THE RIGHT IN 2-3 DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS\r\nARE EXPECTE TO PREVENT JEANNE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA.  WITH THE\r\nFIVE DAY FORECAST POINT NEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE...THIS MIGHT BE A\r\nGOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE FIVE DAY NHC OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 375 MILES...IN OTHER WORDS...IT IS STILL\r\nTOO SOON TO BE SURE WHAT PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES MIGHT BE\r\nAFFECTED BY JEANNE.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AROUND JEAN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A HIGHLY\r\nDIVERGENT FLOW THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AFTER JEANNE CLEARS\r\nHISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 19.0N  69.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N  70.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.4N  72.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  73.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  75.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 25.0N  77.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 28.5N  78.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  80.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MAINLY OVER LAND SINCE EARLIER TODAY...HOWEVER\r\nRECENTLY A PORTION OF THE CORE HAS MOVED OVER A VERY SMALL AREA OF\r\nWATER...THE BAHIA DE SAMANA ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC. ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE\r\nIN THE STRENGTH OF THE RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY SINCE MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS STILL\r\nOVER LAND. IF THE CENTER MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST BY\r\nEARLY FRIDAY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL BE ABLE TO GET TO THE CENTER AND PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS 200 MB WIND\r\nFORECAST SUGGESTS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nJEANNE...ASSUMING THAT IT MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS OUR FORECAST TRACK.\r\nTHIS WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF OUR TRACK...IT COULD\r\nINTENSIFY FURTHER SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER\r\nSHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WOBBLE NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO THAT BROUGHT THE\r\nCENTER TO THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO\r\nBE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 295/5. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING FACTOR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS CERTAIN.  AFTER\r\nJEANNE MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY 5 DAYS.  THIS MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT\r\nJEANNE WILL BE ABLE TO VEER OUT TO SEA...AND IN FACT IT MAY BE\r\nFORCED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD BY THAT TIME.  IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO\r\nTALK ABOUT WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MAY BE\r\nTHREATENED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 19.4N  69.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  70.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.1N  72.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 22.3N  73.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 23.6N  74.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 26.5N  76.9W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 29.5N  79.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS INLAND NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA...\r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DID NOT PENETRATE THE EYE FEATURE BUT IT\r\nMADE A RADAR FIX INSTEAD. THE CREW REPORTED THAT THE EYE WAS\r\nCIRCULAR AND ROUGHLY 15 N MI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER\r\nTHE ECLIPSE SUGGEST THAT JEANNE IS NOT AS STRONG AS A FEW HOURS AGO\r\nSINCE THE EYE FEATURE CAN NOT LONGER BE OBSERVED AND CONVECTION HAS\r\nWEAKENED. THIS WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND WAS\r\nANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS KIND OF SURPRISING THAT JEANNE HAS\r\nKEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN AFTER BEING OVER LAND FOR A\r\nABOUT A DAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 55 KNOTS\r\nBASED ON A MAX WIND FROM THE RECON OF 63 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT\r\nJEANNE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH HISPANIOLA FOR 12 MORE HOURS AND IF\r\nSURVIVES...IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. IT IS GOOD TO POINT OUT THAT...HISTORICALLY...\r\nNOT MANY TROPICAL CYCLONES SURVIVE THE PATH ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF HISPANIOLA.  \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE WEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH WILL LIKELY STEER JEANNE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT\r\n5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A STRONG\r\nTROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND PARTIALLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH IVAN...WILL FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWEST. IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL BECOME REPLACED BY A RATHER STRONG\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH EVENTUALLY WOULD FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD.\r\nTHIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AND IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nIT IS TOO EARLY TO MENTION WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST\r\nMAY BE THREATENED BUT LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A HIGH RISK ALL\r\nTHE WAY FROM FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 19.5N  70.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  70.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 21.3N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N  74.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N  75.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 27.0N  76.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 28.5N  77.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  80.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED ON EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT\r\nA FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS FROM NORTHERN\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL INLAND.  A\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS RAIN-FLAGGED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 60 KT\r\nOVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE ADVISORY INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 287/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE ERODING OVER THE NEXT\r\n3 DAYS AS THE STRONG MID-LEVEL REMANT OF IVAN DROPS SOUTHWARD. \r\nTHIS RESULTS IN JEANNE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT LESS THAN 10\r\nKT.  AN INTERACTION BETWEEN JEANNE AND IVAN IS SUGGESTED BY DAY 3\r\nAS THE CENTERS OF THE TWO SYSTEMS COME WITHIN ABOUT 700 N MI OF\r\nEACH OTHER.  MEANWHILE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. WHICH CUTS OFF THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF JEANNE AND THE GFDL...\r\nNOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS SEND JEANNE MORE WESTWARD.  THE GFS IS AN\r\nEXCEPTION SHOWING A DUE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST FOR 12 HOURS AND THEN\r\nIS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THEREAFTER IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODEL.\r\n\r\nWEAK VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST FOR 2 DAYS BY THE GFS MODEL FOLOWED\r\nBY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  SO JEANNE HAS ABOUT 2 DAYS TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN OVER WARM WATER AND THE FORECAST BRINGS THE WIND TO 80\r\nKT BY DAY 3.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 19.5N  71.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N  72.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.2N  73.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.8N  74.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  74.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N  75.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  77.3W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 29.5N  80.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nA USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE FROM\r\nHISPANIOLA WITH 1002 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 34 KT NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nJEANNES INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL AND THE STORM IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON THIS DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO\r\nREMAINS THE SAME FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS WITH A NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION INTO A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF JEANNE.  THE GFS AND GFDL EVEN SHOW SOME EASTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 2 DAYS.  THEREAFTER THERE IS AN EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT TO ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD DRIFT FOR 4 AND 5 DAYS WHILE THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW A\r\nNORTHEAST OR EASTWARD MOTION.  EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS IS DEPENDENT ON\r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THE REMAINS OF IVAN AND THERE IS DISAGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES JEANNE NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD\r\nFOR 3 DAYS AND THEN HOLDS THE MOTION STATIONARY SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nEASTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IMPLIES A REDUCED\r\nRISK TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD INDICATES INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS\r\nPARTICULAR FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSOME OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY ALSO BE DUE TO 18 KT OF VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  DECREASING SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS AND MOST GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 55 KT IN 48 HOURS\r\nCOMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH CALLED FOR A HURRICANE IN\r\n36 HOURS BUT WHICH STARTED WITH A WIND SPEED THAT WAS 25 KT TOO\r\nHIGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 20.2N  71.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  73.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  74.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.7N  74.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 25.8N  74.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 29.0N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 29.0N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 29.0N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nA USAF RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER JUST OFFSHORE FROM\r\nHISPANIOLA WITH A 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A MAXIMUM 1500 FOOT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT ABOUT 10 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE VERY SMALL AND EXPOSED LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE.  THE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE AROUND 5 TO 10 KTS BASED UPON THE\r\nLATEST UW CIMSS ANALYSIS.  BASED ON THIS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 55 KTS...JEANNE IS UPGRADED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWITH A 40 KT WIND MAXIMUM.  JEANNE IS VERY SMALL AND THE 34 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS EXTEND OUT ONLY ABOUT 15 NMI FROM THE CENTER IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05...BUT THE SPEED MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM MAY\r\nBE SLOWING DOWN AGAIN. THE GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CLUSTERED OUT TO\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND THEN...AFTER 3 DAYS...DOES A GRAND LOOP TO THE\r\nRIGHT DOWN TO THE SOUTH. THE GFDL FOLLOWS THE GFS SCENARIO BUT ON A\r\nMORE MODEST SCALE.  ON THE LEFT SIDE WE HAVE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nGOING OFF TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST.  SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH\r\nUNCERTAINTY AT THE LONGER RANGES I HAVE DONE WHAT THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTER DID AND MOVED ALONG GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TO THE 3 DAY\r\nPOSITION AND LEFT IT THERE FOR DAY 4 AND 5.  EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENS\r\nIS DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE REMAINS OF IVAN AND THERE IS\r\nDISAGREEMENT ON THIS.  THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES INCREASED\r\nUNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSURPRISINGLY...THE SHIPS FORECASTS DECREASING SHEAR THROUGH 36 HOURS\r\nBUT DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY INCREASES THE SYSTEM TO 60 KTS IN\r\n4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 20.4N  72.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 20.9N  72.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 22.2N  73.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 24.3N  73.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 26.3N  74.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 29.0N  74.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 29.0N  74.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVAN.  THE 00Z GFS BREAKS\r\nOFF A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IVAN AND TAKES IT SOUTHWESTWARD JUST OFF\r\nTHE CAROLINAS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  IN THIS SCENARIO...JEANNE IS\r\nLIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THESE REMNANTS AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE 00Z NOGAPS\r\nSCENARIO IS FOR IVAN'S MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO WEAKEN AND/OR TO\r\nCONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...RESULTING IN JEANNE GETTING TRAPPED MORE\r\nQUICKLY UNDER THE STRONG HIGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT\r\nLAKES IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE UKMET TRACK IS EVEN MORE EMPHATIC ABOUT A\r\nCAPTURE.  YET ONE THING ALL THESE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS AN\r\nIMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION OF A VERTICALLY WELL-CONNECTED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH ONLY A\r\nLITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...NOT ENOUGH TO\r\nMAKE ONE THINK THAT JEANNE HAS MUCH VERTICAL COHERENCE.  YET...THE\r\nLAST TWO RECONNAISSANCE FIXES DID GIVE AN ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION.  WHETHER THE MODELS ARE SEEING SOMETHING I DON'T SEE...OR\r\nWHETHER THE CENTER IS ONLY BEING DRAGGED TEMPORARILY TO THE RIGHT\r\nBY THE CONVECTION IS NOT YET CLEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THINKING\r\nIS THAT JEANNE IS NOT QUITE READY TO GO AS FAST TO THE NORTH AS THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...BUT RATHER IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SIMPLER BAM STEERING MODELS...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS OR SO.  IF JEANNE DOES IN FACT TURN NORTH ONLY SLOWLY...IT\r\nWOULD MOST LIKELY BE FORCED BACK TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN ALL THE ABOVE...IT IS PROBABLY OBVIOUS THAT\r\nTHIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW 55 KT OF WIND AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1500 FT. \r\nIF JEANNE WERE A MORE CONVECTIVE STORM THAT WOULD CORRESPOND TO 45\r\nKT AT THE SURFACE...BUT GIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE I WILL HOLD THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. JEANNE IS CURRENTLY JUST TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...RESULTING IN MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SHOULD JEANNE TURN\r\nMORE NORTHWARD IT COULD FIND ITSELF UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER\r\nPATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WOULD\r\nKEEP JEANNE UNDER UNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THUS IT WOULD\r\nSEEM UNLIKELY THAT A STRONG SYSTEM COULD MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. IN FACT...A NOT UNREASONABLE\r\nALTERNATIVE TO THE FORECAST BELOW WOULD BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nTO CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DISSIPATE...AS DEBBY DID IN\r\nTHIS AREA FOUR YEARS AGO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 20.7N  72.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 21.4N  73.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 22.4N  73.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 23.8N  73.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  73.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 27.5N  73.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 28.0N  73.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 28.5N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nJEANNE IS GRADUALLY RECOVERING FROM THE INTERACTION WITH\r\nHISPANIOLA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED UNDER THE INCREASING\r\nCONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. LATEST\r\nAIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 54 KNOTS AND GRAND TURK\r\nHAS REPORTED 41 KNOTS.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW\r\nAN UPPER-LOW SWINGING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nJEANNE. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN THE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR\r\nFOLLOWED BY SOME STRENGTHENING. JEANNE HAS THE CHANCE TO REGAIN\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES\r\nAGAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nJEANNE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340\r\nDEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. A SHARP MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...PARTIALLY RELATED TO\r\nIVAN...IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING EASTWARD CREATING A WEAKNESS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE JEAN TO MOVE ON A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A\r\nRATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE TROUGH AND DEPENDING\r\nHOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD BE BLOCKED AND MOVE\r\nWESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING THE TROUGH. SINCE\r\nTHERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE BEST\r\nOPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEAN NEARLY STATIONARY BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IN FACT...THE GFS KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 21.4N  73.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 22.2N  73.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 26.5N  73.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 28.0N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 29.0N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 29.1N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nJEANNE THAT WAS TRACKED SINCE IT MOVED AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA HAS RUN\r\nWESTWARD AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...AND IS DISSIPATING. SURFACE DATA\r\nFROM THE BAHAMAS AND FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT A\r\nNEW CENTER HAS REFORMED UNDER THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. THIS BY NO MEANS INDICATES A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM GRAND\r\nTURK. AN UPPER-LOW WHICH GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING TO MOVE\r\nSOUTH AND WEAKEN...INSTEAD MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE AND AMPLYFIED...\r\nDISRUPTING THE CLOUD PATTERN. THIS RESULTED IN WEAKENING. NOW THIS\r\nNEW CENTER LOCATION IS UNDER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYLONE OVER THE SYSTEM. THIS SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GOES ALONG WITH BOTH SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL MODELS.   \r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. IT IS ONLY BEING\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD DUE TO THE REFORMATION. JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE THE\r\nTROUGH AND DEPENDING HOW FAR NORTH JEANNE MOVES...THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nBE BLOCKED AND MOVE WESTWARD OR COULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD FOLLOWING\r\nTHE TROUGH. SINCE THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND\r\n3 DAYS...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP JEANNE NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS AT DAYS THREE THROUGH\r\nFIVE. IN FACT...NOW ALL THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS...THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WITHIN THIS REGION\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD OR LONGER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 22.0N  72.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 22.9N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 24.1N  72.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 25.7N  72.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 27.0N  72.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 28.5N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 28.5N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE IS POORLY ORGANIZED...POSSIBLY\r\nDUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY JUST SOUTH OF THE STORM.  THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM\r\nTHE NEW CENTER THAT FORMED THIS AFTERNOON TO THE OLD CENTER...WHICH\r\nHAS MOVED EASTWARD AND IS NOW BETWEEN GREAT INAGUA ISLAND AND\r\nHAITI.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WELL-REMOVED TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002\r\nMB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE NEW CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 40\r\nKT...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 360/5.  IF JEANNE IS NOT\r\nACTUALLY YET MOVING NORTH...IT WILL BE SOON AS SATELLITE...\r\nRAWINSONDE...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK BUT DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH HAS DEVELOPED OVER FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANTS\r\nOF IVAN.  THIS HAS ERODED THE RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF JEANNE\r\nAND SHOULD ALLOW A NORTHWARD MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN POSSIBLY BECOME A\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND ALONG THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.  THIS SHOULD BLOCK THE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AND COULD TURN JEANNE BACK WESTWARD BY 120 HR. \r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR LOOPS OF VARIOUS SIZES AND SPEEDS...\r\nWITH 120 HR POSITIONS BETWEEN 67W AND 76W.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOR\r\n72-120 HR WILL NOT CALL FOR A COMPLETE LOOP...BUT WILL SHOW A\r\nHALF-LOOP THAT IS SMALLER AND SLOWER THAN THAT OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\nOBVIOUSLY...THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS HAVE A HIGHER THAN NORMAL\r\nLEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO HAS HIGH UNCERTAINTY.  IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER WILL AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nSHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN ABOUT 24 HR...BUT\r\nBY THAT TIME JEANNE MAY BE PASSING OVER THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE\r\nWAKE OF FRANCES...WHERE SST ANALYSES INDICATE TEMPERATURES BELOW\r\n28C IN SOME AREAS.  THIS MAY COUNTER THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  AFTER 48-72 HR...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND\r\nJEANNE MAY INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD LIMIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BOTH TAKE JEANNE TO 65-70\r\nKT MAXIMUM WINDS IN 48-72 HR FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 22.4N  72.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 23.4N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 24.8N  72.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 26.3N  72.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 27.4N  71.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 28.0N  71.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 27.5N  70.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 27.0N  71.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING JEANNE\r\nAND THEY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL...1500 FT...OF 53 KT ABOUT 50 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  USING A STANDARD REDUCTION FOR THIS\r\nALTITUDE GIVES A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 40-45 KT.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING AWAY FROM THE DISRUPTING INFLUENCE\r\nOF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND CURRENTLY SEEMS TO BE ESTABLISHING A\r\nBETTER-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  THEREFORE SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS JEANNE EVENTUALLY RESTRENGTHENING INTO A\r\nHURRICANE... AS DO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  HOWEVER...THE GFS\r\n200 MB WIND FOREAST SHOWS FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW...IMPLYING\r\nSIGNIFICANT SHEAR...OVER THE AREA WHERE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE LOCATED IN 72 HOURS.  JEANNE MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A\r\nRATHER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ON ITS WAY TO REGAINING\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.    \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/6.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSUAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD AND TURN JEANNE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IN 2-3 DAYS...THIS TROUGH IS\r\nLIKELY TO BYPASS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  A RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THIS HIGH IS PREDICTED...BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...\r\nTO BLOCK THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF JEANNE...AND CAUSE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CLOCKWISE LOOP.  THIS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE WIDER LOOP THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nHAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA.  IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THIS IS A\r\nLOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSINCE JEANNE IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND HAS\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANTS...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS INTENDS TO DISCONTINUE\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE BAHAMAS SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 23.2N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 24.1N  72.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  72.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 27.0N  71.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 28.0N  70.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 27.0N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEFINITELY SHOW THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LARGE AND BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE\r\nARE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSYSTEM AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...JEANNE LACKS\r\nAN INNER CORE WHICH IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER CYCLONE.\r\nTHEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK JEANNE LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT CONDITIONS OF LOW SHEAR AND THE LARGE CIRCULATION...SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nVERY HOSTILE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH JEANNE IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED ONLY TO 65\r\nKNOTS IN THE FORECAST WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nTHERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE\r\nLONG RANGE...THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR EXAMPLE...RECENT\r\nRUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN AN EASTWARD AND A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK...AND SOLUTIONS FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE\r\nNOT BEEN ANY MORE CONCLUSIVE. THE LATEST FIVE DAY FORECAST POINTS\r\nOF THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS ARE ABOUT 1200 N MI APART. IN SUCH\r\nCASES...THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING IN \r\nBETWEEN THE TWO EQUALLY VALID MODEL OPTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 23.5N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 24.8N  72.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 26.5N  71.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 27.5N  70.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 27.5N  70.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  70.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nA NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE STORM AND REPORTS STEP FREQUENCY MICROWAVE\r\nRADIOMETER SURFACE WINDS NEAR 45 KT ALONG WITH 996 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE.  THE ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW AND BANDING.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS BRING JEANNE TO A\r\nHURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...\r\nALTHOUGH NOT AS AGGRESSIVELY AS THE GUIDANCE.  THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO\r\nSHOWS SOME RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING JEANNE IN 36\r\nHOURS...SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HOURS\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A HUGE LOW\r\nMOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AFTER THAT...JEANNE\r\nGETS FAIRLY CLOSE TO KARL AND THEY COULD INTERACT.  IN ANY CASE...A\r\nVERY SLOW MOTION IS INDICATED AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS\r\nSHOWING A SLOW GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 24.5N  72.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 26.7N  71.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 27.3N  70.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 27.2N  69.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 26.5N  68.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N  68.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 27.0N  67.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND 60 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB\r\nABOUT 25 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN BOTH THE NORTHEASTERN AND\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANTS...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. \r\nSURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT WERE NEAR 50 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.  WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED AND\r\nMOVED CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE YESTERDAY...THE STORM IS STILL NOT\r\nTHAT WELL ORGANIZED AS REFLECTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 35 KT.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS POOR IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND FAIR\r\nTO GOOD ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/7...ALTHOUGH THE MOTION DURING THE NOAA\r\nFLIGHT WAS CLOSER TO 030/7.  JEANNE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THIS PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nTURN JEANNE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH 36 HR.  SERIOUS MODEL DIVERGENCE\r\nTHEN ARISES.  THE GFS AND GUIDANCE BASED ON IT...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFDL...MARCH JEANNE STEADILY TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nSOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THROUGH 120 HR...WITH THE GFS\r\nSHOWING JEANNE FOLLOW KARL NORTHEASTWARD TO HIGHER LATITUDES.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TURN JEANNE SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nSOUTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 96 HR AS KARL PASSES TO THE EAST AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN MOVE IT NORTHWEST\r\nAS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  AT THE MOMENT...IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED\r\nWHICH OF THESE TWO OPTIONS WILL VERIFY.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND\r\nCALL FOR A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT AFTER 36 HR.  THIS CONTINUES TO BE A\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  FOR NOW...THE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE AND THE BROAD CIRCULATION SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nCONSOLIDATE.  AFTER 24-36 HR...THE GFS AND THE NOGAPS INDICATE\r\nSIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IMPACTING JEANNE.  DESPITE\r\nSHOWING MORE THAN 20 KT OF SHEAR...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD AS DOES THE GFDL.  ANOTHER\r\nCOMPLICATION IS THAT THE COLD FRONT MAY INTERACT WITH JEANNE IN\r\nABOUT 36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 70\r\nKT BY 48 HR...WHICH IS LESS THAN THE 78 KT FROM SHIPS OR THE 86 KT\r\nFROM THE GFDL.  AFTER 48 HR...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME\r\nHOSTILE ENOUGH TO STOP INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE SLIGHT WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 25.2N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 26.2N  71.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 27.0N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 27.3N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 27.0N  69.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 26.5N  68.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  68.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N  67.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n\r\nJEANNE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS ON THE LAST RECON\r\nMISSION...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DOWN A COUPLE OF\r\nMILLIBARS.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS FIXED THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...AND SATELLITE ANALYSTS FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA LOCATED THE CENTER SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH.  ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING A LITTLE ELONGATED FROM\r\nSOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  THIS IS INDICATIVE OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE A LITTLE OVER 15 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN\r\nTHE AREA.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS PER THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES AND THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR AND DRIER AIR IS LIKELY TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR INCREASES\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AND SOONER THAN EXPECTED...JEANNE MIGHT NOT REGAIN\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AFTER ALL.\r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE  A LITTLE EAST OF\r\nNORTH...010/7.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS\r\nEAST.  THERE IS A MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF JEANNE...AND THE GFS MODEL PREDICTS THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THIS BIGGER TROUGH...AND MOVE WELL EAST INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS DO NOT AGREE WITH THAT SCENARIO...AND SHOW THE LARGE\r\nTROUGH LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND.  THOSE MODELS DEPICT VARIOUS VERSIONS\r\nOF A LOOP BACK TO THE WEST...WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FEELING THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME NOW...THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK FOR JEANNE IN THE\r\n2-5 DAY TIME FRAME.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF\r\nTHE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND SIMPLY HOLDS THE SYSTEM STATIONARY\r\nAFTER DAY 3. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 26.0N  71.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 26.7N  71.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 27.3N  70.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 27.3N  69.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 27.0N  68.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  68.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 26.5N  67.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 26.5N  67.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED TIGHT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE INNER-CORE REGION\r\nOF JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nINTERIOR PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 2\r\nHOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER AND HAS PULLED IT MORE NORTHWARD. SO THE FORWARD MOTION IS A\r\nBLEND OF ALL THOSE WOBBLES. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE STEERING FLOW\r\nIS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NHC MODELS TO REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO PICK UP HURRICANE IVAN RUNS OFF AND LEAVES\r\nJEANNE BEHIND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION BY JEANNE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFS AND\r\nBAM MODELS...WHICH TAKE JEANNE DUE EAST...AND THE NAVY COAMPS MODEL\r\n...WHICH MOVES JEANNE DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT TO PUT A SMALL\r\nANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nJEANNE HAS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AS EARLY AS TODAY IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE DRY AIR\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nIS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES\r\nSOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 26.8N  71.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 27.3N  71.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 27.6N  70.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 27.5N  69.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 27.0N  69.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 26.5N  68.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  69.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 26.5N  69.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/06. AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON\r\nFIX POSITIONS...ALONG WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE JEANNE HAS FINALLY MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\n...AND MAY EVEN BE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST. NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE\r\nGFS-BASED BAM MODELS...THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE IN\r\n24-48 HOURS AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nEASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE\r\nAND BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH\r\nMOVES IN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE\r\nSMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nJEANNE HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND THE\r\nINNER-CORE REGION HAS BECOME TIGHTER. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS\r\nDEVELOPED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RECON REPORTS INDICATE A 20-30\r\nNMI CLOSED EYE. A 20/2003Z RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 93 KT AT 5000\r\nFT AND A 983 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE JUSTIFIES INCREASING THE INTENSITY\r\nTO 75 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nFAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES\r\nSOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 27.4N  71.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 27.6N  70.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 27.7N  69.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 27.6N  69.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 27.2N  68.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N  69.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 27.0N  69.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 28.0N  68.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/02. JEANNE HAS TURNED TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS FORECAST BY THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS. THE\r\nOTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THAT THE BASIC STEERING FLOW\r\nWOULD COLLAPSE AS A DEEP TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nEASTWARD AND PICKS UP HURRICANE KARL WHILE LEAVING JEANNE BEHIND. A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE AND\r\nBLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES\r\nIN AND REPLACES THE RIDGE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND MAINTAINS THE SMALL\r\nANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nJEANNE APPEARS TO BE IN A QUASI-STEADY STATE AS FAR AS THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS CONCERNED...NOT HAVING A COMPLETE CLOSED EYE. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AGAIN 55 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...ALSO\r\nSUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE.  HOWEVER OUR CURRENT INTENSITY IS AN\r\nEXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS RECON WHICH WAS 75 KTS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KTS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND THAT GUIDANCE IS THE BASIS FOR THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 27.4N  70.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 27.4N  70.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 27.3N  69.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 26.7N  69.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 26.3N  69.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  70.2W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 27.3N  70.1W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 28.0N  69.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF JEAN HAS FALLEN TO 972 MB...WITH\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A 45 NM WIDE EYE...OPEN TO\r\nTHE SOUTH...WHICH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IS MOSTLY CLOUDED\r\nOVER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n80 KT BASED MAINLY ON THE 11 MB PRESSURE FALL SINCE THE LAST\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/5.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JEANNE SHOW\r\nSLOW AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO AS A HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.  AFTER THAT...MODEL DIVERGENCE\r\nIS AGAIN PRESENT.  THE GFS STILL WANT TO TAKE JEANNE OFF TO THE\r\nEAST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED\r\nCONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...CALLING FOR\r\nJEANNE TO LOOP WESTWARD BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEITHER OF THESE MODELS INITIALLY MOVE JEANNE\r\nAS FAR EAST AS IT IS NOW.  THE GFDL IS IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...\r\nCALLING FOR A LESS DRASTIC WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE LOOP.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CHANGE PHILOSOPHY TO THAT A LOOP WESTWARD\r\nAND THEN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE UKMET\r\nAND THE NOGAPS.  THIS LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND GUNA.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATES 20 KT\r\nOF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE AT THIS TIME.  THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE OBSERVED DEEPENING SHOULD SOON CEASE IF IT HAS\r\nNOT ALREADY DONE SO.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nPERSIST FOR 24-36 HR AND THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.  THIS COULD ALLOW\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IF JEANNE DOES NOT SHEAR OFF BEFORE\r\nTHEN...INGEST THE AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH...OR\r\nUPWELL COLD WATER UNDERNEATH IT WHILE MAKING ITS SLOW LOOP.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 48 HR ON\r\nTHE ASSUMPTION THAT NONE OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...SHIPS FORECASTS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR\r\nJEANNE AT THAT TIME RANGING FROM FAVORABLE TO UNFAVORABLE...AND IT\r\nIS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST GRASP OF THE\r\nEVOLUTION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS LEAN ON THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND CALL FOR WEAKENING AT 96-120 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 27.6N  70.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 27.6N  69.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 27.1N  69.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 26.5N  69.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 26.3N  70.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.6N  71.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 27.5N  72.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 29.0N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE JEANNE HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING.\r\nTHE RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD COVERED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A CONSENSUS T4.5...OR 77KT\r\n...FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 105/06.  THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ALL OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...INDICATES JEANNE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SLOWLY TURN SOUTHEAST AND EVEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THIS ALREADY APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF JEANNE...THAT\r\nIS ACCELERATING HURRICANE KARL NORTHWARD...HAS BEEN PUSHING\r\nEASTWARD. BEHIND THE TROUGH...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS\r\nBECOME NORTHERLY...ALBEIT STRONGLY DIFLUENT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW\r\nSHOULD ACT TO STEER JEANNE SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE\r\nHIGH/RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT WHICH IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE GUNS CONSENSUS...SINCE THE GFS REMAINS AN EASTERN OUTLIER\r\nMODEL. THE UKMET...GFDL...AND DEEP BAM MODELS ARE FASTER THAN AND\r\nMORE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT\r\nUNTIL THE 12Z MODELS...CONTAINING NEW UPPER-AIR DATA...COME IN\r\nBEFORE MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN\r\n10 KT IN THE 36-48 HOURS PERIOD...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS...INCREASING SHEAR\r\nFROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nLARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\nHOWEVER...IF JEANNE MOVES FASTER AND FARTHER WEST LIKE SOME OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE INDICATING...THEN JEANNE WILL WEAKEN EVEN MORE THAN\r\nINDICATED SINCE THE CYCLONE WOULD ENCOUNTER GREATER SHEAR DUE TO\r\n45-55 KT 200 MB WINDS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 27.5N  69.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 27.1N  69.2W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 26.6N  69.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 26.4N  69.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.4N  70.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.8N  72.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 27.5N  73.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 29.5N  74.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...INDICATE JEANNE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS. THE RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY CLOUD-COVERED AND THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS T4.5...OR 77KT...FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY ALSO REMAINS AT 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECON FLIGHT WILL INVESTIGATE JEANNE AGAIN AT 22/06Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 140/05.  AGAIN...THERE REMAINS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. \r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT NOW...EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nGFS...ON JEANNE MAKING A SLOW ANTICYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HOURS BEFORE MOVING NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. WHILE\r\nTHE GFS IS STILL THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER MODEL...EVEN IT HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO SHIFT ITS TRACK FARTHER WEST CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE\r\nOTHER MODELS. THE DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH AND EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF\r\nJEANNE AS A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES\r\nTO SHIFT EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTWO FORECASTS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS JEANNE IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT IN 36-48 HOURS...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AROUND THAT TIME. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST TO SPREAD\r\nACROSS JEANNE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG 200 MB ANTICYCLONE. THEREFORE...GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED. HWOEVERE...IF JEANNE SHOULD MOVE A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND A FARTHER WEST LIKE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS FORECASTING...\r\nTHEN THE HURRICANE WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN EVEN MORE THAN FORECAST\r\nSINCE IT WOULD BE UNDER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 27.3N  68.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 27.0N  68.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 26.5N  68.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.2N  69.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 26.4N  69.6W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 27.3N  71.3W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 29.0N  73.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":34,"Date":"2004-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nMULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGES CLEARLY SHOWS THE EYE OF JEANNE AND ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. MAXIMUM WINDS AREA\r\nKEPT AT 80 KNOTS BUT A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE\r\nINTENSITY OF JEANNE IN A FEW HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...THE SHEAR OVER JEAN IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST AND\r\nUNANIMOUSLY ALL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nJEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A\r\nLITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR JEANE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY\r\nDURING THAT PERIOD...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OR ABOUT 175 DEGREES AT 3\r\nKNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK SO...JEANNE\r\nWILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A\r\nRATHER LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FEATURE WILL\r\nPROBABLY FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE ON A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK. JEANNE SHOULD THEN TURN NORTHWARD NOT TOO FAR FROM THE U.S\r\nEAST COAST AS THE HIGH CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS RATHER CLOSELY. THERE IS A LITTLE\r\nMORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST NOW THAT THE GFS HAS JOINED THE\r\nREST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL IN MOVING JEAN WEST AND\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE LATEST SCENARIO IS A LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT\r\nFOR THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO TELL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 27.0N  68.7W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.8N  68.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 26.5N  69.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 26.5N  69.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.6N  70.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 27.5N  73.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 29.5N  75.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 32.1N  76.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":35,"Date":"2004-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 968 MB AT 0609Z WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 83\r\nKT AT 700 MB IN THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL.  A DROPSONDE IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EYEWALL SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 80 KT. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 77 KT...AND\r\nTHE MAXIMUM INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT.  ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 15-20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LOT OF DRY AIR\r\nSURROUNDING JEANNE.  SOME DRY AIR MAY HAVE REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEYEWALL BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 180/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH NORTHEAST OF JEANNE AND A LARGE-DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN\r\nTHE TWO FEATURES TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE RIDGE BUILD OR MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES BY DAYS 4-5.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD START JEANNE ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HR OR SO...THEN CAUSE A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 72-96 HR.  TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT...WITH ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS...AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...THEN IS SHIFTED\r\nCONSIDERABLY TO THE WEST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DURING THE REST\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THE FORECAST TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE\r\nSHIFTED FARTHER WEST ON SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE TRACK FORECAST IS MORE CLEAR-CUT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CURRENT SHEAR\r\nMAY SUBSIDE AS A CUT-OFF LOW OR SHARP CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS\r\nNEAR FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HR.  INDEED...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY\r\nBECOME SOUTHEASTERLY OVER JEANNE.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT TOTALLY\r\nCLEAR WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL ACT AS AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL OR JUST\r\nCHANGE THE DIRECTION OF THE SHEAR.  BY 48 HR... AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER JEANNE PROVIDING A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS...\r\nEVEN EXPERIMENTAL ONES...FORECAST AN INTENSITY ABOVE 95 KT.  THE\r\nREASONS FOR THIS ARE UNCLEAR...BUT IT COULD BE THAT THE DRY AIR IS\r\nRESTRAINING THE DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE\r\nGET STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN 72-96 HR.  THE MODELS HAVE\r\nBACKED OFF A BIT ON THE SHEAR IN THE 96-120 HR TIMEFRAME...SO THE\r\nFORECAST WILL SHOW LESS WEAKENING AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL\r\nWHICH PART OF THE COAST...IF ANY...MAY BE AFFECTED BY JEANNE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 26.6N  68.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 26.3N  68.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 26.1N  69.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 26.1N  70.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 26.3N  71.8W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 27.0N  74.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 29.0N  77.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 32.0N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":36,"Date":"2004-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nSINCE THE EARLIER HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT THIS MORNING...THE\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0...OR 90 KT. HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nCLOUD COVERED AGAIN AND 3-HR AVERAGE AODT VALUES ARE T4.6...OR 80\r\nKT FROM CIMSS...AND T4.8...OR 85 KT...FROM TAFB. BASED ON THE\r\nIMPROVED INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\nJEANNE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nLAST RECON CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT OF 968 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 180/4.  THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING. JEANNE HAS MADE A TURN\r\nTO THE SOUTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION. A DEEP-LAYER HIGH CENTERED OVER OHIO WITH A RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY MOVING\r\nEASTWARD. OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA. THE\r\nCLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH/RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE\r\nAND MOVE JEANNE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN MORE NORTHWARD\r\nBY 96 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL BEING THE WESTERNMOST\r\nOUTLIER IN TAKING JEANNE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NOGAPS\r\nSCENARIO IS NOT BEING CONSIDERED AT THIS TIME DUE TO ITS MUCH\r\nSLOWER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nDEVELOP ACROSS JEANNE UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS WHEN JEANNE IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE UNDERNEATH THE WESTERN PORTION OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE\r\nANTICYCLONE WITH A SHARP DIGGING TROUGH TO THE EAST. THAT PATTERN\r\nWOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT\r\nVERY DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURROUND JEANNE AT THAT TIME. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL...BUT IF NO DRY AIR GETS WRAPPED INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION\r\nTHEN JEANNE COULD EASILY BE 5-10 KT STRONGER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 26.3N  68.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  68.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  69.8W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  70.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  72.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 27.5N  75.2W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 29.5N  77.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 33.0N  77.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":37,"Date":"2004-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nTHIS AFETRNOON...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nJEANNE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 967 MB...BUT AN 850 MB FLIGHT\r\n-LEVEL WIND OF ONLY 95 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 76-KT SURFACE WIND...\r\nWHERE A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT WAS REPORTED IN THE SAME WESTERN\r\nQUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85 KT\r\nGIVEN THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE \r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD ALSO TYPICALLY SUPPORT ABOUT 104 KT SURFACE\r\nWINDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ALSO SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 240/4.  A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...MAINLY AFTER 72 HOURS. ALL OF THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR WESTWARD SHIFT. THIS IS DUE TO\r\nTHE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC\r\nSTATES FORECAST TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS AND\r\nTHE GFDN ACTUALLY ELONGATE THE RIDGE MORE EAST-WEST THAN MOVING IT\r\nEASTWARD. THE RESULT IS THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72-96 HOURS...BEFORE IT RECURVES TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL\r\nMOVES JEANNE INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...SIMILAR TO THE\r\nTRACK OF FRANCES. WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A POSSIBILITY...THE\r\nNHC MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON JEANNE REMAINING\r\nOFFSHORE THE U.S. COAST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THE MORE WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE\r\nHURRICANE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS IN 60-72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY BE AROUND 10 KT FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...THE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THE\r\nCYCLONE MAY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. BY 72\r\nHOURS...THOUGH...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5\r\nKT AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE...SO THERE COULD\r\nBE SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OCCUR AT THAT TIME. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS DUE TO JEANNE POSSIBLY MOVING\r\nDIRECTLY OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SIMILAR TO WHAT ALEX DID EARLIER\r\nTHIS YEAR. HOWEVER...IF JEANNE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...THEN\r\nIT WOULD BE OVER MUCH COOLER SHELF WATER OF 76-79F...AND THAT WOULD\r\nLIKELY RESULT IN A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 26.1N  69.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 25.9N  69.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 25.9N  70.8W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 26.1N  72.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.5N  74.1W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 28.0N  78.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":38,"Date":"2004-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nJEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE BUT CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE T-NUMBERS\r\nREMAIN AT 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. A NOAA PLANE MEASURED 93 KNOTS\r\nAT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 966 MB. METEOROLOGISTS ON\r\nTHE NOAA RECONAISSANCE PLANE INFORMED BY PHONE THAT THE\r\nEYE WAS VERY DISTINCT ON RADAR....AND THAT THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE\r\nNEAR JEANNE WAS ABOUT 26C BUT INCREASED TO 28C ABOUT 100 MILES TO\r\nTHE WEST. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER JEANNE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO\r\n3 DAYS. THIS PATTERN ALONG THE INCREASE IN SSTS...WOULD FAVOR SOME\r\nSTREGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nJEANNE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4\r\nKNOTS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS STRONG HIGH SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO FORCE JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOON...WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS\r\nTHE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW BRINGING JEANNE\r\nNEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. EVEN THE\r\nGFS...WHICH PREVIOULSY TURNED JEANNE NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING\r\nFLORIDA...IS NOW BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER THE PENINSULA. I WAS\r\nTEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FARTHER WESTWARD...BUT\r\nBECAUSE IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP CONTINUITY...ONLY A LITTLE WESTWARD\r\nSHIFT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY\r\nCLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 25.6N  69.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.6N  70.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  71.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 25.5N  73.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 26.0N  75.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N  78.6W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 30.0N  80.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 34.0N  78.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":39,"Date":"2004-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOW THAT CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE COOLED AROUND THE EYE OF JEANNE...BUT THAT THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME MORE CLOUD FILLED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90\r\nKT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT. \r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND\r\nFAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nPOST-ECLIPSE IMAGES SHOW THAT JEANNE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE\r\n0315Z...PERHAPS JUST A LITTLE WESTWARD.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 260/3.  A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS MOVING EASTWARD OR BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC...AND\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD MOVE JEANNE IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION WITH\r\nACCELERATION.  AFTER 72 HR...JEANNE BECOMES LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE ANTICYCLONE...WHICH BEGINS TO ELONGATE NORTH-SOUTH.  THIS WOULD\r\nALLOW A NORTHWARD TURN AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES. \r\nAS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE TURN OCCUR. \r\nTHE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET FORECAST THE TURN TO OCCUR AFTER JEANNE\r\nHAS HIT SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  THE GFS...GFDL... AND CANADIAN\r\nFORECAST AN EARLIER TURN...WHICH WOULD BRING JEANNE NEAR OR OVER\r\nEAST CENTRAL OR NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  THE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS\r\nSEEMS TO BE THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE FASTER UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nREACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE A\r\nSLOWER WESTWARD MOTION AND DO NOT BRING JEANNE AS FAR WEST BEFORE\r\nTHE TURN.  WHILE THE NOGAPS SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THE\r\nUKMET HAS JEANNE AT 70.8W AT 1200Z THIS MORNING AND THUS APPEARS\r\nTOO FAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND NOW CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.  IT IS\r\nALONG THE LINE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.  JEANNE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 27C...LIKELY BROUGHT ABOUT BY\r\nUPWELLING CAUSED BY THE SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE.  SINCE JEANNE\r\nREMAINS SLOW MOVING...THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY BE TEMPORARY.  ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nIS LIKELY WHILE JEANNE REMAINS EAST OF 72W.  THE WATERS ARE ABOUT\r\n28C WEST OF 72W...AND WHEN JEANNE REACHES THEM IT SHOULD BE IN A\r\nRATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.  THUS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS STILL\r\nRELUCTANT TO FORECAST JEANNE MUCH ABOVE 95-100 KT...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW 95 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS. \r\nHOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE REACH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN 48-72 HR.  AFTER 72 HR...LAND INTERACTION AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR SHOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY\r\nCLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 25.5N  69.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.4N  70.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 25.4N  72.1W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 25.6N  74.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 26.0N  75.9W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 29.5N  81.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  80.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":40,"Date":"2004-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCLOUD-FREE EYE WITH A RING OF COLD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS A CONSENSUS T5.5...OR 102 KT...FROM\r\nALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED AND THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nA LITTLE MORE RAGGED. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/4. JEANNE IS\r\nSURROUNDED BY HIGH PRESSURE EVERYWHERE BUT THE SOUTH...SO THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEFINITIVE MOVEMENT THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE\r\nPRESSURES TO THE WEST OF JEANNE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE AS IVAN\r\nMOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION TO BEGIN SHORTLY. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE TROUGH-RIDGE\r\nPATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS\r\nRESULTS IN A RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST\r\nTO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE BUILDING\r\nSLOWLY SOUTHWARD. A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE JEANNE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE HURRICANE NEARS THE FLORIDA EAST COAST\r\nIN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS NUDGED WESTWARD OUT OF\r\nRESPECT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS...WHICH WERE FIRST TWO\r\nMODELS AND THE MOST CONSISTENT ONES TO INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTOWARD FLORIDA.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL TRICKY. OCEAN CONDITIONS NEAR JEANNE\r\nARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.\r\nHOWEVER...BY 24-48 HOURS...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nIMPROVE AND JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR THE\r\nBAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO\r\nOCCUR. BY 72 HOURS...JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...INCREASING SOUTH TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY BRING ABOUT SOME SIGNIFICANT\r\nWEAKENING...BUT THIS IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL RIGHT NOW.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST OF THE STEERING CURRENTS...FLORIDA SHOULD PAY\r\nCLOSE ATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF JEANNE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 25.6N  69.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 25.6N  70.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 25.6N  72.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 25.7N  74.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N  76.8W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 27.3N  80.2W    95 KT...NR FLORIDA EAST COAST\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 30.5N  81.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 35.0N  78.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":41,"Date":"2004-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nWHILE THE EYE OF JEANNE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 90 KT. THE NEXT RECON FLIGHT INTO JEANNE WILL\r\nBE AROUND 24/06Z\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/06. JEANNE HAS BEEN WOBBLING IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 9 HOURS...BUT A TURN TOWARD TO\r\nTHE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THIS\r\nHAS BEEN THE YEAR FOR WRAPAROUND RIDGES...AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT JEANNE IS CAUGHT IN SUCH A PATTERN. HOWEVER...ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nA STRONG RIDGE/HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND WEST\r\nVIRGINIA MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN\r\nABOUT 48-60 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES\r\nTHAT COULD DETERMINE IF...WHEN...AND WHERE JEANNE COULD MAKE\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE ETA...NOGAPS...AND GFDN\r\nMODELS ARE THE FARTHEST SOUTH AND BRING JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA\r\nAND TO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA. THE OTHER MODELS REMAIN JUST INLAND\r\nFROM THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH LANDFALL BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH\r\nAND CAPE CANAVERAL. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTH\r\nAND WEST BASED ON THE GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVING\r\nINITIALIZED THE RIDGE TOO WEAK...BY ABOUT 20 METERS AT 500 MB.\r\nUSERS ARE CAUTIONED TO NOT FOCUS ON THE SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS\r\nDUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE HURRICANE...AND\r\nBECAUSE JEANNE COULD TAKE A MORE ROUNDED PATH NEAR LANDFALL THAN\r\nIMPLIED BY SIMPLY CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. A\r\n60-HR POINT WOULD BE CLOSE TO 26.7N 79.8W WITH A 100-KT INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT\r\nSOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL JEANNE\r\nGETS NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IN ABOUT 60 HOURS. THIS MAY ALLOW\r\nJEANNE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nOVER INCREASINGLY WARMER WATER...83-84F...LOCATED FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST BAHAMAS WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 25.9N  70.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 25.9N  71.5W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 25.8N  73.4W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 25.8N  75.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 26.1N  77.8W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 27.9N  81.3W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 31.5N  81.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 36.0N  77.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":42,"Date":"2004-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND THERE IS GOOD ORGANIZATION...\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THIS WAS PROBABLY CAUSED BY THE FACT\r\nTHAT JEANNE HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR A DAY OR SO...RESULTING IN\r\nUPWELLING AND COOLER WATERS. THE WINDS COULD BE LOWERED AT THIS\r\nTIME BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR THE RECON WHICH WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY\r\nEARLY FRIDAY.  SO FOR NOW THE WINDS REMAIN AT 90 KNOTS. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE BETWEEN THE\r\nBAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...AND AS SOON AS JEANNE MOVES WESTWARD OVER\r\nTHIS AREA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS\r\nTHEN ANTICIPATED.    \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nBEGUN TO FORCE JEANNE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. AS THE\r\nHIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS. BY THEN...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL TURN GRADUALLY TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH.\r\nTHIS TURN COULD EITHER OCCUR OVER THE PENINSULA OR ALONG THE EAST\r\nCOAST. NEVERTHERLESS...JEANNE IS A THREAT TO FLORIDA. THIS IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS...WHICH CONSISTENTLY\r\nHAVE BEEN BRINGING THE HURRICANE OVER OR NEAR FLORIDA FOR THE PAST\r\nFEW RUNS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 26.1N  70.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.1N  72.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 26.1N  74.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 26.2N  77.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N  79.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 29.0N  81.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  80.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":43,"Date":"2004-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF JEANNE IS A BIT OF A PUZZLE THIS MORNING.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 969 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT WINDS OF NEAR 90 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT\r\nAT 700 MB WERE ONLY 74 KT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT CLOSER TO 65 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS.  POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME COOLING OF\r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT...BUT ALSO SHOW A MUCH LESS\r\nDEFINED EYE.  BASED MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A\r\nDEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS NOW\r\nCENTERED NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ELONGATE\r\nSOUTHWARD WITH TIME.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP JEANNE ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nTIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL IN QUESTION...AS THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED\r\nFAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO MISS THE FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS\r\nDRIVES JEANNE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEFORE\r\nRECURVATURE.  THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nEXTREMES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JEANNE ON THE LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR...AS THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH MAY NOT ALLOW AS MUCH NORTHWARD MOTION AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL\r\nAND GFS.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET AGAIN APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST IN\r\nTHE FIRST 12 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT JEANNE CURRENTLY HAS A BROAD WIND\r\nFIELD...WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35-45 NM.  BETWEEN THAT\r\nAND THE COLD UPWELLING WATER THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER...\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY FOR 12 HR OR SO.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...JEANNE SHOULD MOVE OVER 82F WATER AND REACH 83-84F WATER BY\r\n36 HR.  THIS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IF THE\r\nSTORM STRUCTURE HAS REORGANIZED BY THAT TIME...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR JEANNE TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR.  THIS\r\nIS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL.  AFTER 48 HR...A\r\nCOMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND\r\nINTERACTION SHOULD PRODUCE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WARNING FOR\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL\r\nBAHAMAS...AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST\r\nCOAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 26.1N  71.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 26.1N  73.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 26.2N  75.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 26.6N  77.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 27.1N  79.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 30.0N  81.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  78.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 39.5N  69.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":44,"Date":"2004-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE AND THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN ERODED BY DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED...SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS INCREASED OR AT LEAST HAS REMAINED STEADY. THEREFORE\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...WHICH MAY STILL BE A\r\nLITTLE GENEROUS. NEXT RECON FLIGHT WILL AT 24/18Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  UPPER-AIR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE A\r\nDEEP-LAYER HIGH/RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA...\r\nWHICH IS SOUTHEAST OF MOST OF THE NHC MODEL FORECAST POSITIONS...\r\nESPECIALLY THE UKMET...THAT ARE VALID AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE\r\nMID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA HAVE BACKED AROUND FROM THE\r\nNORTHEAST TO THE NORTH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN INVERTED\r\nTROUGH HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS THIS\r\nFEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...SOME WEAK RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR\r\nBEHIND IT OVER AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH MAY ACT TO\r\nFORCE JEANNE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON\r\nTHE TRENDS NOTED IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nWAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TRICKY. DUE TO THE NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY MOTION OF JEANNE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...SIGNIFICANT\r\nCOLD UPWELLING HAS OCCURRED BENEATH THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LATEST\r\nSUBJECTIVE SST ANALYSES BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBS INDICATE JEANNE\r\nIS BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM A REGION OF 79F SSTS TOWARD WARMER WATER.\r\nAN EAST-WEST SST THERMAL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF 26N\r\nLATITUDE...ALONG THE PATH THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE. SSTS\r\nCONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 84F OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS WOULD\r\nGENERALLY SUGGEST THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR...\r\nESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE MAIN\r\nHINDERING INFLUENCE NOW APPEARS TO BE THE DRY AIR SURROUNDING\r\nJEANNE THAT HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER.\r\nUNTIL THIS DRY AIR MIXES OUT...LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING SHOULD\r\nOCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION LIKELY NOT OCCURRING\r\nUNTIL JEANNE REACHES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL\r\n...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...\r\nJEANNE COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND/OR\r\nJUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. NOTE...IF EXPECTED LANDFALL OCCURS A LITTLE\r\nLATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS WOULD BE HIGHER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 26.2N  72.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 26.2N  74.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 26.4N  76.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.8N  78.9W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.9N  80.7W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 30.7N  81.9W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 34.5N  78.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 40.0N  69.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":45,"Date":"2004-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER DATA...INDICATE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED.\r\nWHILE RECON DATA ALSO INDICATES CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS HAVE DEVELOPED\r\n...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE...OR SFMR...WIND\r\nDATA SUGGEST THAT JEANNE MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 97 KT AT\r\n5000 FEET AND THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WIND WAS 87 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...BUT IT COULD BE HIGHER SINCE THE\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE IS NOW 965 MB...WHICH TYPICALLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 96\r\nKT SURFACE WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/10....BUT THE TREND IN THE LAST TWO\r\nRECON FIX POSITIONS SUGGESTS A MOTION OF POSSIBLY 270/11. THE\r\nLATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...BUT THERE REMAIN\r\nSOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THAT COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE FUTURE\r\nTRACK OF JEANNE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SLIGHT NORTH\r\nAND EASTWARD SHIFT AGAIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS.\r\nMOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKE JEANNE TO ALONG OR JUST EAST OF THE\r\nFLORIDA EAST COAST BEFORE TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND PARALLELING THE COASTLINE. ONLY THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND ETA\r\nMODELS TAKE JEANNE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE\r\nNOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS TYPE OF\r\nTRACK THE PAST 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SOMEWHAT DISCONCERTING\r\nBECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE THE LARGE HIGH/RIDGE\r\nNEAR THE DELMARVA SOUTHWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA\r\nBEFORE MOVING IT TO A POSITION NEAR BERMUDA IN 36 HOURS. THE OTHER\r\nMODELS QUICKLY WEAKEN THE HIGH AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THE EXACT\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH/RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS\r\nWILL DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST JEANNE WILL MOVE BEFORE IT BEGINS TO\r\nMAKE THE TURN NORTHWARD. SPECIAL 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE\r\nCENTER THE HIGH HAS NOT WEAKENED AND HAS ACTUALLY PUSHED SOUTHWARD\r\nAND IS NOW LOCATED JUST EAST OF WALLOPS ISLANDS IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nDELMARVA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...THAT\r\nTHE NOGAPS-GFDN-ETA SOLUTION IS HANDLING THE STEERING PATTERN THE\r\nBEST. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nNOAA RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND NEARLY A 5F SST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE\r\nEASTERN AND WESTERN EYEWALL...CLEARLY INDCIATING THAT JEANNE HAS\r\nCREATED A LOT OF COLD UPWELLING UNDERNEATH THE HURRICANE.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...JEANNE IS NOW MOVING FASTER AWAY FROM THOSE\r\nUNFAVORABLE OCEAN CONDITIONS AND TOWARD MUCH WARMER WATER...83-84F\r\n...LOCATED FROM THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE\r\nCURRENT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\nLITTLE FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THEREFORE...STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\n...POSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 3/100 KT...IS FORECAST. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS JEANNE UP\r\nTO 98 KT AND 99 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS....RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 26.4N  73.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 26.5N  75.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 26.6N  77.9W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 27.4N  80.2W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 29.0N  81.4W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  81.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 36.0N  75.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 41.5N  67.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":46,"Date":"2004-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nJEANNE HAS A LARGE EYE AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. LAST AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 964 MB.  EARLIER A NOAA PLANE MEASURED A PEAK WIND OF 107 KNOTS\r\nAT FLIGHT LEVEL. THEREAFTER...AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED ONLY 95\r\nKNOTS IN THE SAME AREA. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND REMAIN AT\r\n5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS\r\nUNTIL NEW DATA COMES FROM ANOTHER PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE HURRICANE'S OUTFLOW\r\nAND RAOB DATA. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARMER OCEAN BETWEEN\r\nTHE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA...SUGGESTS SOME STREHGTHENING AND JEANNE\r\nCOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STRONG\r\nHIGH NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE JEANNE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS\r\nEASTWARD. ALTHOUH WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL\r\nOCCUR...ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS OF ADDITIONAL WESTWARD MOTION THAN\r\nANTICIPATED WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE FARTHER INLAND\r\nOVER THE PENINSULA. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO\r\nMAKE THE TURN EARLIER AND SLIDE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. AT\r\nTHIS TIME...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE INLAND\r\nAND WILL MAKE THE NORTHWARD TURN OVER THE PENINSULA. THIS IS BASED\r\nON THE LATEST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE BIT WESTWARD. EVEN THE GFDL WHICH KEPT THE CORE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE OVER WATER IS NOW KEEPING THE HURICANE HUGGING THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 26.5N  74.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 26.6N  76.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 27.2N  79.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  81.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 29.5N  81.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 33.5N  80.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 37.5N  75.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 42.5N  66.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":47,"Date":"2004-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT JEANNE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A 40 NM\r\nWIDE EYE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 958 MB...AND THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 100 KT.  THIS\r\nIS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL 90 KT INTENSITY.  JEANNE IS CURRENTLY\r\nGENERATING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS SOUTH OF THE EYE...BUT A DRY SLOT\r\nIS APPARENT NORTH OF THE EYE.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY FAIR TO\r\nGOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 110 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...APPARENTLY DUE TO AN\r\nEYEWALL MESOVORTEX AND THE ASSOCIATED INTENSE CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION WOBBLES BETWEEN 270/12 AND 275/12.  JEANNE\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW FORECAST TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO DRIVE\r\nJEANNE INTO SOUTHEASTERN OR EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HR. \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO\r\nTHE EAST TO ALLOW JEANNE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...FOLLOWED BY\r\nEVENTUAL RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND HAS SHOWN A WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...BUT THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES ON WHEN AND WHERE JEANNE\r\nWILL TURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL IN FLORIDA IN 24 HR...THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24\r\nHR...AND JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 24-72 HR.  IT HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...MOST NOTABLY OVER\r\nTHE FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nGUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE\r\nFOR JEANNE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL.  THEREFORE...THE MAIN\r\nRESTRAINING FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT ARE THE CURRENT LARGE EYE...AND\r\nTHE ABUNDANT DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE.  SHIPS AND THE GFDL\r\nBOTH TAKE JEANNE TO 100 KT BY LANDFALL.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nTRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO A LITTLE HIGHER AND CALL\r\nFOR 105 KT.  IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE JEANNE GET STRONGER\r\nTHAN THAT...AND REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IS NOT OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION.  JEANNE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...BECOMING\r\nA DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 26.5N  76.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 26.7N  78.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 27.3N  80.3W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 28.6N  81.9W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 30.4N  82.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  80.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 38.5N  72.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 43.0N  62.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":48,"Date":"2004-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE\r\nEYE IS OVER MARSH HARBOR ON THE ABACO ISLAND. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nMUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE\r\nAND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 127 KNOTS.\r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN FLYING ACROSS THE HURRICANE AND \r\nREPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 113 KNOT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS. THIS MAKES JEANNE A\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.\r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nJEANNE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.\r\nA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STEER JEANNE TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE HIGH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF\r\nJEANNE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE\r\nTONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS WHICH CONSISTENTLY TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 26.6N  77.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 27.0N  79.5W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  81.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 29.5N  82.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 31.0N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 35.0N  78.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 40.0N  67.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":49,"Date":"2004-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. JEANE\r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. STRONGEST WIND CONTINUES TO BE THE\r\n113 KNOTS REPORTED BY A RECON EARLIER TODAY. A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n950 MB WAS JUST REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KNOTS BUT MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED WHEN A\r\nNEW DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BECOME AVAILABLE. ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY AT LANDFALL\r\nIN FLORIDA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN\r\nAFTER LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS INLAND DECAY\r\nMODEL....DSHIPS. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...JEANNE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND\r\nTHE HIGH TONIGHT. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CORE OF JEANNE TO THE\r\nEAST COAST OF FLORIDA WITHIN THE WARNING AROUND MIDNIGHT.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND ACROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE\r\nPORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM NOW TO LANDFALL AND OVER\r\nFLORIDA CONTINUES TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nIN FIVE DAYS...JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM\r\nIN THE NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 27.1N  78.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 27.7N  80.6W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.7N  82.3W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.2N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 37.5N  76.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 42.5N  65.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 46.5N  52.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":50,"Date":"2004-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS MOVING ONSHORE OVER MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES.  ON\r\nRADAR OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AN INNER EYEWALL WAS OBSERVED\r\nTO DISSIPATE.  JEANNE HAS A LARGE 40 N MI DIAMETER EYE...WITH A\r\nLARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...ABOUT 45 N MI.  THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT PROBABLY PLAYED A ROLE IN PREVENTING ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE.  IN FACT...SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWIND OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE 100 KT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE...HOWEVER THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT YET FINISHED ITS\r\nSURVEY OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nJEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND\r\nIS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. \r\nTHE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...JEANNE SHOULD BE ACCELERATING IN THE WESTERLIES AND LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  THIS FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE GFS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE VERO BEACH FCMP TOWER JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 75 MPH\r\nWITH A GUST TO 104 MPH.\r\n\r\nWINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD OCCUR AS FAR AS 100 MILES INLAND\r\nALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 27.2N  80.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.0N  81.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  82.9W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 31.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 38.0N  75.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 42.0N  65.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 45.0N  54.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":51,"Date":"2004-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n \r\nTHE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF JEANNE IS NOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA BETWEEN SEBRING AND VERO BEACH...AND IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT\r\nLESS DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA.  DOPPLER\r\nWINDS FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 100-115 KT MOST\r\nOF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE NOW STARTING TO DIMINISH.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 95 KT...WHICH MAY BE A BIT\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nJEANNE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE NOW\r\nCENTERED JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JEANNE TO\r\nBEGIN ITS NORTHWARD TURN WITHIN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL\r\nRECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE\r\nGENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO THE\r\nTIMING OF THE TURN.  THE NOGAPS REMAINS THE FARTHEST WEST...TAKING\r\nJEANNE ACROSS APALACHEE BAY AND JUST WEST OF TALLAHASSEE...WHILE\r\nTHE GFS IS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...TAKING JEANNE NORTHWARD THROUGH\r\nGAINESVILLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...CALLING FOR JEANNE TO PASS NEAR TAMPA\r\nTHEN BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER APALACHEE BAY BEFORE MAKING A FINAL\r\nLANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES INTO THE ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nJEANNE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE CROSSING THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE IT MAY WEAKEN SLOWER\r\nTHAN IS NORMAL AND WILL LIKELY STILL BE A HURRICANE AT CLOSEST\r\nAPPROACH TO THE TAMPA AREA.  WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES BRING\r\nJEANNE OVER APALACHEE BAY...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE THERE IS\r\nONLY 26C...AND WITH MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STILL OVER LAND THE\r\nCHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE POOR.  JEANNE\r\nWILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...THEN IS FORECATS TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY 120 HR.\r\n\r\nWINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE COULD OCCUR 100 MILES OR MORE INLAND\r\nALONG THE TRACK OF JEANNE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 27.4N  81.1W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 28.1N  82.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 29.7N  83.6W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 31.8N  83.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 39.0N  73.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 42.0N  64.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  52.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":52,"Date":"2004-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n\r\nTHE EYE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTWESTWARD...290/9...OVER THE WEST-\r\nCENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND IS NEARING THE TAMPA BAY AREA. \r\nWSR-88D DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  THE CENTER WILL PROBABLY\r\nMOVE JUST SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA UPPER WEST COAST THIS\r\nEVENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH OVER THE WATER TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JEANNE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA.  A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF A WEAKENING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...EXITING\r\nTHE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN 2-3 DAYS...AND ACCELERATING IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES THEREAFTER.  JEANNE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nBY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GUNA CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN\r\nTHE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 27.9N  82.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 28.9N  83.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 30.8N  83.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 33.1N  83.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 35.6N  80.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 40.5N  71.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 44.0N  60.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  48.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":53,"Date":"2004-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER LAND AND PEAK\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES/VAD WIND PROFILES FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D RADAR\r\nSUGGESTED 55-60 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20Z AND THE 21Z ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.  THE RADAR PRESENTATION IS SLOWLY\r\nDETERIORATING...BUT JEANNE STILL HAS A LARGE AND STRONG WIND\r\nCIRCULATION AT THIS TIME.  NONETHELESS...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO TAKE ITS TOLL AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DROP BELOW\r\nSTORM STRENGTH BY MONDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT DAY 3.  JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ROUNDING A\r\nDEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES\r\nCOAST.  A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\n1-2 DAYS WITH THE CENTER OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN STATES AND EMERGING INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC STATES.\r\n \r\nIN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK PREDICTION AT DAYS\r\n4-5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SLOWED AND SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE SOUTHWARD.  THIS IS BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW\r\nSUGGESTING THAT JEANNE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MIGHT NOT ACCELERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS\r\nEARLIER INDICATED.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nPARTIALLY CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN WESTERLIES...SLOW SOMEWHAT...AND\r\nSTART MOVING MORE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 28.8N  82.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 30.0N  83.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 31.9N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 34.2N  82.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 36.5N  78.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 40.5N  69.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 43.0N  60.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 44.0N  50.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":54,"Date":"2004-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n \r\nDOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE TAMPA...TALLAHASSEE...JACKSONVILLE...\r\nAND MELBOURNE WSR-88D RADARS...ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...\r\nINDICATE JEANNE REMAINS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL STORM EVEN THOUGH IT\r\nHAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nSTILL OCCURRING ON BOTH FLORIDA COASTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN COAST. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL INLAND LOCATIONS ARE\r\nSTILL REPORTING WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BEEN ERODING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD\r\nOVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SQUALLY RAINBANDS ARE STILL LIKELY\r\nTO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT\r\nAND TOMORROW AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE ACROSS THE REGION. JEANNE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND IT SHOULD\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...OF NOT SOONER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/11. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...JEANNE\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY ROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE CAROLINAS. AFTER THAT...\r\nA SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SHOULD\r\nCAPTURE JEANNE AND TURN THE CYCLONE OUT TO SEA NEAR THE VIRGINIA\r\nCAPES AREA. TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOCCUR BY 96 HOURS....WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM THE VIGOROUS\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 29.9N  82.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 31.6N  82.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 35.5N  80.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 37.7N  75.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 41.0N  66.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 44.0N  47.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":55,"Date":"2004-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004\r\n \r\nDOPPLER VELOCITY DATA ARE SHOWING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE WIND FIELD\r\nALOFT...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY STILL BE A\r\nFEW SPOTS OF 45 KT WINDS AROUND IN RAINBANDS OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AND OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER DECAY OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE\r\nEXPANDED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS REQUIRES AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/10...A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO EDGE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ALLOW JEANNE TO RECURVE\r\nAROUND ITS PERIPHERY FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE JEANNE\r\nEASTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ARE ALL NOW\r\nSUGGESTING A DECAPITATION SIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED WITH IVAN...IN\r\nWHICH THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LEFT BEHIND WHILE THE UPPER\r\nPORTION CONTINUES RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  THE DISPOSITION OF ANY\r\nABANDONED REMNANT MAY DEPEND ON WHERE LISA IS IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS. \r\nIN FACT...THE NOGAPS HAS THE SOUTHERN REMNANT OF JEANNE BECOMING\r\nABSORBED INTO LISA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 48 HOURS AND CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nMOTION AFTER 72 HOURS FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.  THIS FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. \r\n\r\nAS JEANNE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE\r\nTROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS...SOME BRIEF EXTRATROPICAL/FRONTAL\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 30.5N  83.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 31.9N  83.8W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 33.7N  82.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 35.5N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 36.5N  76.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 37.5N  68.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 37.0N  64.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jeanne","Adv":56,"Date":"2004-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004\r\n\r\nJEANNE HAS JUST A FEW SPOTS OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS...AND IT HAS BEEN DECIDED TO CARRY IT AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE.  IT WILL LIKELY BE DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN A\r\nFEW HOURS...SO AN INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY\r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BUT THE NEXT REGULAR PUBLIC ADVISORY\r\nWILL VERY LIKELY BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER HIGH.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS\r\nANTICIPATED...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AT THIS\r\nTIME...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE BAROCLINICITY AND\r\nSHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF JEANNE A FEW DAYS FROM NOW...SO THAT\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER IN THE PERIOD SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY.  THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST\r\nWITH THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM AFTER IT MOVES BACK INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION ALONG WITH AN\r\nINTERACTION WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nEXCEPT TO KEEP JEANNE ALIVE THROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 31.6N  83.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 32.9N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 34.8N  81.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 36.3N  78.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 37.0N  74.4W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 38.0N  67.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 38.5N  62.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 39.0N  59.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...T2.0 FROM SAB AND T2.5 FROM TAFB...ALONG\r\nWITH SHIP REPORTS SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...SUPPORT\r\nINITIATING ADVISORIES ON THE DISTURBANCE IN THE FAR EASTERN\r\nTROPICAL ATLANTIC.  THE DEPRESSION HAS GOOD BANDING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND A STRONGLY DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST IN ACCORD WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  STEERING FOR THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW A HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS THAT\r\nSHOULD DEFLECT THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD.  THE BAMS...GFS... AND GFDL\r\nARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 11.4N  32.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.8N  34.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 12.1N  36.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N  38.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N  40.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 14.0N  42.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N  44.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N  45.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT\r\nFRAM SAB. A 16/1950Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 25-30 KT\r\nUNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS...WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN-CONTAMINATED\r\n40-KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY BEING UPGRADED TO\r\n35-KT TROPICAL STORM KARL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION WAS MADE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nPOSITON ESTIMATES. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING\r\nDEGREES...AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS\r\nALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTHWARD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE\r\nOF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE\r\nFORECAST MOTION WAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RTACK...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nMORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR REASONING.\r\nKARL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN ALREADY...SO A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR MAY SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION RESUMING AGAIN AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 11.4N  33.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 11.7N  35.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.1N  37.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 12.5N  39.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 13.2N  41.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N  44.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N  45.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.0N  46.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KARL IS STRENGTHENING\r\nRATHER QUICKLY.  THE SYSTEM HAS A CDO FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER AND A\r\nNICE BAND WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE WEST SIDE INTO THE CDO.  THERE\r\nIS SUPERB OUTFLOW TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTH.  ALSO...THE SSTS AT\r\nTHESE LATITUDES REACH THEIR MAXIMUM VALUES IN MID-SEPTEMBER. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  AN\r\nOBJECTIVE ODT CALCULATED A 77 KT WIND SPEED.  THE SUM OF THIS\r\nINFORMATION IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING THE SYSTEM UP TO 55 KTS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14. ALMOST NOTHING HAS CHANGED SINCE THE\r\nLAST PACKAGE.  NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON\r\nA GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND\r\nWEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS SHIPS WANT TO MAKE THE SYSTEM\r\nA HURRICANE RATHER QUICKLY AND INTENSIFY IT TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO\r\nWITH THE SHIPS FORECAST WEIGHTED IN THE EARLY GOING...THUS MAKING\r\nTHE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 11.5N  35.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 11.8N  36.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.2N  38.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N  40.6W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.7N  42.2W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N  44.8W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N  46.3W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N  47.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nWHILE KARL HAS A GOOD SKELETAL BANDING STRUCTURE THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nMEAT ON THOSE BONES.  THE BANDS...WHILE WELL DEFINED...ARE VERY\r\nTHIN...AND THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SHOWED VERY LITTLE WIND FOR A\r\nSYSTEM WITH THIS KIND OF STRUCTURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT.  I WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KT BUT IT'S PROBABLY HIGH.  REGARDLESS...KARL'S\r\nSTRUCTURE AS WELL AS ITS ENVIRONMENT FAVORS SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  KARL HAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN...WATERS WILL\r\nBE WARM AND THE SHEAR LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REQUIRES THAT KARL BE\r\nRELOCATED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n290/9.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH\r\nDROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD RECURVE KARL BY LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS FASTER WITH THE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS STILL SLOWER\r\nTHAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 12.3N  35.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.9N  37.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 13.7N  38.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 14.6N  40.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N  41.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  44.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  45.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 27.5N  45.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KARL THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ALL CONVERGING ON T3.5 AND I WILL\r\nHOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 55 KT.  KARL RETAINS\r\nWELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOWS\r\nSTRONG ANTICYCLONIC AND DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  WHILE KARL MARKS\r\nTIME OVER WARM WATERS IT IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 320/12...AS KARL HAS BEEN EXECUTING AN\r\nUNEXPECTED RIGHT TURN TODAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 850 NM NORTH OF KARL...WHICH MIGHT ACCOUNT\r\nFOR THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THERE IS STILL A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...SO I DON'T THINK THIS IS THE\r\nBEGINNING OF RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL KARL\r\nAPPROACHES A LARGE AND POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AT THAT TIME KARL SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nNORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 13.4N  36.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N  37.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.3N  39.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.3N  40.4W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.2N  41.8W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  44.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  46.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 29.5N  46.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nKARL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AS OUTER\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED. A 17/2148Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT KARL MAY POSSESS A VERY SMALL EYE...AND THIS WAS LATER\r\nSUPPORTED BY A 17/2317Z TRMM OVERPASS. WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM\r\nAFWA...I AM A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO DESIGNATE KARL AS A HURRICANE AT\r\nTHIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH OF\r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING\r\nINTO THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nBEGIN COOLING AGAIN...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. KARL APPEARS TO BE MAKING A\r\nLITTLE MORE OF A WESTWARD BEND...BUT IS BASICALLY ON TRACK. THE NHC\r\n18Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AND HAS MADE A SLIGHT\r\nSWING TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED...HAS ALSO BEEN CONSISTENTLY WELL TO THE LEFT OF TRACK AND\r\nDID NOT PICK UP THE JOG TO THE RIGHT EARLIER TODAY. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FLOW PATTERN\r\nSURROUNDING KARL...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WAS NOT BROUGHT AS FAR TO\r\nTHE WEST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...A STRONG HIGH\r\nAMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nAND EASTERN CANADA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP\r\nDOWNSTREAM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG\r\nRIDGING.  THE RESULT IS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nKARL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND ALLOW FOR MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nKARL ALREADY HAS VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH\r\nTHE TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C...STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION THROUGH 96 HOURS IS EXPECTED... AND KARL COULD EVEN\r\nBECOME THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON BY 72 HOURS. AFTER\r\n96 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO INITIATE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 14.2N  37.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N  38.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N  40.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.9N  42.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  43.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  45.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 25.5N  47.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 31.0N  46.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nKARL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO BASED ON\r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF A SMALL BUT DISTINCT 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED\r\nON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT...77 KT\r\n...AND 65 KT...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS QUITE CONSISTENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HOURS AS KARL MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS...A\r\nSTRONG HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA...WHICH\r\nCAUSES A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KARL.  THE LARGE\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nKARL...WHICH ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND\r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN BEGIN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A TAD TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER KARL REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST-\r\nSOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND OUTWARD IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING THAT ANY RESTRICTION THAT HAS\r\nCREATED THE ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. KARL\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE SMALL INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\n...AND WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C. AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY TREND\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE LESS ROBUST AND IS LEVELED OFF BY 72\r\nHOURS WHEN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN\r\nAFFECTING THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN MUCH LOWER\r\nAFTER THAT...SINCE THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS KARL UP TO 125 KT IN 72H. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 14.9N  38.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.8N  40.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N  42.4W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 18.1N  44.1W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.7N  45.3W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 23.0N  46.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 26.5N  47.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 31.0N  45.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL\r\nWHICH BECOMES ERODED BY 72 HOURS FROM AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nKARL IS LOOKING GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE AND BANDING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT.  CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS\r\nAFTER WHICH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nEXCEPT A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.2N  39.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N  40.7W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N  42.9W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N  44.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N  46.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.8N  48.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 27.0N  48.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 34.0N  45.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN\r\nAPPROACHING AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THIS\r\nWILL ALLOW KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED\r\nRIDGE AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5.  ONLY THE\r\nGFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/90/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT.  KARL CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE...BANDING FEATURES\r\nAND OUTFLOW.  THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS STABLE...BUT\r\nTHE OUTER BANDING DEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND INCREASES THE WIND SPEED TO\r\n115 KT IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 15.9N  40.2W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N  41.6W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.6N  43.8W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N  45.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  47.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N  48.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 27.0N  48.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  45.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n\r\nKARL HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nDIRECTION AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 290/10. THE FORECAST REASONING\r\nIS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nKARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN APPROACHING\r\nAMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW\r\nKARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED RIDGE AND\r\nTHEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/102/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT.  THIS MAKES KARL THE FIFTH\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER HAS GOTTEN\r\nSMALLER DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE STORM IS\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WHICH THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ABOVE CONFIRM.  A\r\n2357Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO GAVE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR\r\nTHIS...SHOWING A DOUBLE EYEWALL WITH THE INNER EYE JUST ABOUT TO\r\nCOLLAPSE AND DISAPPEAR.  THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SCENARIO\r\nREQUIRES THE WIND SPEED TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER EYE BECOMES\r\nDOMINANT AND REPLACES THE DISAPPEARING INNER ONE.  THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME. \r\nSURPRISINGLY THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WHICH THE SHIPS DOES NOT.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS HAVE\r\nKARL BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME\r\nFRAME.  ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.2N  41.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.6N  42.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.4N  44.8W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.2N  46.7W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N  48.1W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  49.4W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 28.0N  48.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 34.0N  44.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nMID-LATITUDE COLD LOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A\r\nTRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION ON\r\nTHE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE SMALL EYE PREVIOUSLY\r\nOBSERVED.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES...INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL MAY BE\r\nSTARTING TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 100 KT BASED ON DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAVORABLE\r\nTO SUPPORT A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH\r\nTHE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 16.3N  42.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.9N  43.7W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 17.7N  45.7W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.7N  47.4W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  48.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  49.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  47.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 37.5N  42.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09.  KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nWITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A TRACK AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT COLD CDO FEATURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 115/102/102 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 110 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 15 KT\r\nOF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS 10 KT UNDER\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS FOR 10 MORE KT...BUT THE WIND SPEED COULD CERTAINLY GO\r\nHIGHER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 16.4N  42.9W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N  44.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.7N  46.1W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.9N  47.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.6N  48.4W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 25.4N  48.9W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 32.5N  46.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 41.0N  42.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nKARL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW A CLASSICAL CAPE VERDE HURRICANE WITH PROMINENT BANDING\r\nFEATURES...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THREE-HOUR\r\nAVERAGE ODT'S ARE NEAR T6.3...120 KT...AGREEING WELL WITH TAFB'S\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF T6.0.  IN ADDITION... A 1707 UTC\r\nCIMSS/NESDIS AMSU PRESSURE ALGORITHM ESTIMATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 941 MB.  THE ESTIMATED WINDS ARE RAISED TO 115 KT AND THE\r\nPRESSURE IS SET TO 944 MB IN BETWEEN THE AMSU AND DVORAK ESTIMATES.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.. 290/9.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD... A\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO\r\nERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP\r\nRECURVATURE EAST OF 50W.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AT LONGER RANGES WHETHER KARL\r\nWILL BE ABSORBED BY A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OR REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THE LATTER POSSIBILITY WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK POSSIBLE\r\nAT LONG RANGES IF THE ABSORPTION SCENARIO OCCURS.\r\n \r\nKARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE\r\nSHEAR.  THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL\r\nFOR THE CYCLONE.  IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT AND THE WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.0N  44.0W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.6N  45.5W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N  47.2W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.9N  48.3W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N  49.1W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  48.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 35.0N  45.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 44.0N  40.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nKARL SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 115/102/102 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE APPEARANCE OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM OVER ALL IS EXCELLENT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 115 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...290/10.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD... A\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO\r\nERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP\r\nRECURVATURE NEAR 50W.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nKARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE\r\nSHEAR.  THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL\r\nFOR THE CYCLONE.  IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT WHERE THE\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY IS OFTEN REACHED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 17.2N  45.1W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N  46.5W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.2N  48.2W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.7N  49.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 22.8N  50.3W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 28.9N  49.4W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nAS IT DID LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF\r\nKARL HAS DETERIORATED A BIT...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT\r\nAND A SPREADING OUT OF THE COLDEST CORE CLOUD TOPS.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM NEAR 0Z THAT SUGGESTED\r\nANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WAS OCCURRING.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT...BUT KARL WILL HAVE AMPLE\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE IT IS\r\nOVER WARM WATER AND UNDER LIGHT SHEAR.  AFTER THAT...WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nFROM AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH WILL BE\r\nENCOUNTERED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY COLDER SSTS NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS A STILL POTENT KARL MERGES WITH THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN TO MAKE A RIGHT TURN\r\nAHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BIT OF A BEND TO THE LEFT TO REFLECT\r\nMORE OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.3N  45.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.9N  46.8W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N  48.4W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.1N  49.6W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N  50.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  48.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 38.0N  44.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 49.0N  43.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KARL IS NOT AS CIRCULAR AS YESTERDAY\r\nWITH THE CLOUD SHIELD SHOWING ASYMMETRIES IN THE EASTERN AND\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLES.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS SOME SHEAR IS\r\nPRESENT...CONFIRMED BY THE GFS AND CIMSS ANALYSES SHOWING ABOUT\r\n10-15 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THE CLOUD PATTERN NEAR THE\r\nINNER CORE REMAINS RAGGED AND T-NUMBERS ARE FALLING.  HOWEVER A\r\nRECENT SSMI OVERPASS SHOWED NO EVIDENCE OF THE INNER EYEWALL SEEN\r\nON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE PREVIOUS\r\nEYEWALL CYCLE IS COMPLETE.  ON THE OTHER HAND THE EYE WAS ALSO OPEN\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE.  GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED A BIT TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nA MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 54W IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHE GFS INDICATES THAT SHEAR WILL REMAIN NEAR CURRENT LEVELS UNTIL\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS WHEN THE TROUGH RETROGRADES AWAY FROM KARL.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A PERIOD OF VERY LOW SHEAR OVER WARM WATER\r\nNEAR THE CYCLONE'S RECURVATURE POINT... ALL INGREDIENTS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.  WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON A 0900 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS\r\nLARGE SIZE IS HELD CONSTANT THOUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nKARL IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS BUT\r\nRECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY MOTION\r\nMAY HAVE BEGUN.  THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND BECOME ANCHORED\r\nALONG 55W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN CONU AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BIT OF A BEND TO THE LEFT BEYOND 3 DAYS TO\r\nREFLECT A DEEP MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE CAPTURING KARL RATHER THAN THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE STAYING A SEPARATE ENTITY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 17.9N  46.3W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.7N  47.4W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.4N  48.8W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N  49.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 25.0N  49.8W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 32.0N  47.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 41.0N  44.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 51.0N  45.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE AROUND KARL'S EYEWALL THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WITH THE EYE BECOMING A BIT BETTER-DEFINED.  HOWEVER A\r\n1657 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THE EYEWALL WAS STILL OPEN\r\nSOUTH.  IN ADDITION...SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH\r\nSINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 105 KT. \r\nMODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL BE STEADY OR DECREASING FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...PROVIDING A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KARL TO\r\nREINTENSIFY.  SSTS ARE ALSO INCREASING UP TO NEAR 84F IN ITS PATH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS CALLING FOR\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY NEAR THE CYCLONE'S RECURVATURE POINT.  WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS UNDER DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING\r\nSHEAR.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL\r\nBEGIN AROUND 96 HOURS THEN FORMING A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\nABOUT 5 DAYS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nKARL HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NW... NOW MOVING 305/10 KT. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST WITH A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG ALONG\r\n55W AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nON RECURVATURE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AROUND 50W.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS. \r\n\r\n12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AFTER CONSULTATION WITH\r\nTHE ATLANTIC FORECASTER IN TAFB.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.6N  47.1W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N  48.2W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.8N  49.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 24.1N  50.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 27.0N  49.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 34.0N  45.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 43.0N  43.5W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 49.0N  44.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nKARL HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE ONCE AGAIN UP TO 6.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WHILE\r\nREMAINING STEADY AT 5.5 FROM AFWA. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TEND TO\r\nSHOW UP A LITTLE COOLER FOR MET-8 AS COMPARED TO GOES-12...WHICH\r\nPROBABLY EXPLAINS WHY TAFB AND SAB ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN AFWA.\r\nREGARDLESS...BOTH SATELLITES REPRESENTATIONS SHOW A WIDE BAND OF\r\nCOOLING CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE. IN ADDITION...A 2207Z TRMM\r\nPASS REVEALED THAT THE STRENGTHENING EYEWALL IS BECOMING MORE\r\nENCLOSED WITH ONLY A SMALL OPENING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. SINCE CI\r\nNUMBERS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STEADY BETWEEN 6.0 AND 6.5 FOR THE PAST\r\n24 HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS IMPROVING...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AT 315/9. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE WANTS TO RUN KARL OUT OF THE GATES AT A FASTER PACE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS...MORE LIKE 12 KNOTS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHOLDS IT BACK A BIT IN LINE WITH CURRENT TRENDS. HOWEVER...\r\nACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND HEADS TOWARDS A\r\nDEEP TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. \r\n\r\nKARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS AND RETAIN\r\nA MAXIMUM INTENSITY THROUGH 24 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE\r\nPOINT OF RECURVATURE. THE HURRICANE WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nBETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...AND THEN MORE QUICKLY THEREAFTER AS SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AFTER 48 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS WITH KARL BECOMING INCORPORATED\r\nINTO THE DEEP POLAR VORTEX JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BERG/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 19.1N  47.4W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.1N  48.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N  49.8W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 25.4N  50.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 28.5N  49.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 36.0N  45.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 44.0N  44.5W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 49.0N  47.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS AT AROUND 06Z WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 6.0\r\nFROM AFWA...CORRESPONDING TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT AND 115\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY.  MORE RECENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF\r\nTHE COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 120 KT.  KARL MAY HAVE\r\nALREADY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM STRENGTH.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE HURRICANE REACHES SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES...I.E. IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.  BY DAY 4 KARL SHOULD BE PASSING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND\r\nLOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH HELD\r\nUP A LITTLE HIGHER LATE IN THE PERIOD SINCE THE CYCLONE MAY DERIVE\r\nSOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES.\r\n\r\nKARL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 340/10.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A TURN TO THE NORTH IN\r\nROUGHLY 24 HOURS...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 48-72 HOURS...AND\r\nTHEN BACK TO THE NORTH LATER IN THE PERIOD AS KARL BEGINS TO MOVE\r\nAROUND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE AT HIGHER LATITUDES.  THERE ARE\r\nHOWEVER SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED PREDICTED\r\nBY THE MODELS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT FASTER THAN\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 20.1N  47.5W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N  48.4W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 23.9N  49.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 26.5N  49.5W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 29.2N  47.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 36.0N  43.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 44.0N  43.5W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 48.0N  44.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE AS THE WELL DEFINED EYE\r\nFROM A FEW HOURS AGO IS NOT SEEN THIS MORNING.  ALSO THE CDO\r\nFEATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED AND IT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nCURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 110 KT. \r\nTHE STRONG SHEAR MAY BE TEMPORARY AS THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS LIGHT\r\nSHEAR AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL KARL REACHES COLD SSTS IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO\r\nAROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 21.4N  48.0W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  48.8W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N  49.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 28.0N  48.6W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.9N  46.9W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 38.2N  44.4W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 45.0N  45.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 50.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nBECOMES RATHER NON-SYMMETRIC...APPARENTLY DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 105 KT.  IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL DOES NOT ANALYZE VERY MUCH SHEAR UNTIL 48 HOURS AND OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ADDITONAL WEAKENING UNTIL 36 HOURS IN\r\nRESPECT TO THIS GUIDANCE.  IF THE PRESENT APPARENT SHEAR HOLDS\r\nUP...KARL COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN FORECAST.  KARL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO ENCOUNTER COLDER WATERS BY 72 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/14.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION IN A DAY OR TWO\r\nAROUND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND THEN GET DRAWN TOWARD A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL MID-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 22.9N  48.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 24.9N  49.4W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 27.6N  49.1W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  47.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 34.1N  45.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 44.2N  42.2W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 52.5N  37.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 57.5N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nSTRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER\r\nOF KARL...POSSIBLY BECAUSE THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED\r\nIMMEDIATELY OVER THE HURRICANE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0...5.0...AND 4.5\r\nRESPECTIVELY. SINCE CI NUMBERS ARE STILL UP NEAR 6.0 AND THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE TIGHTLY WRAPPED\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE OVERALL SHEAR HAS DECREASED...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF KARL IS LIMITING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. IT APPEARS THAT SHEAR WILL ALSO IMPACT KARL FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE STORM APPROACHES A LARGE\r\nPOLAR TROUGH NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND SSTS COOL...IN LINE WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nKARL IS NOW MOVING 350/15. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED FROM\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES AND KEEPS KARL ON AN ACCELERATING NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY THROUGH DAY 3. EXTRATROPICAL KARL WILL\r\nTHEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IN THE DIRECTION\r\nOF ICELAND DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG WESTERLIES.\r\nTHIS FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 24.5N  48.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.6N  49.3W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.1N  48.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 31.7N  46.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 35.5N  44.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 45.5N  41.0W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 54.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 60.0N  22.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nA DOUBLE-EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nAND MICROWAVE PASSES OF KARL.  AN INNER EYEWALL LESS THAN 15 NM IN\r\nDIAMETER IS PRESENT ALONG WITH A MUCH LARGER OUTER EYEWALL OF ABOUT\r\n75 NM. CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE INTENSE AROUND BOTH EYEWALLS...\r\nESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO AS THE CI NUMBERS HAVE\r\nFALLEN AND THE CURRENT WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 100 KT.\r\n\r\nKARL REMAINS ON TRACK... MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYERED TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE AND REMAINS CLUSTERED AROUND AN ACCELERATING NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY THROUGH DAY 3.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nSHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS OVER COOLER WATER AND\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST KARL WILL\r\nEVENTUALLY BECOME A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE AND WIND RADII\r\nREFLECT THE GFS WIND FORECASTS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE MUCH SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD A\r\nCOMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER TEMPERATURE SHOULD\r\nTAKE ITS TOLL ON KARL ESPECIALLY AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...WITH\r\nGREATER THAN 30 KT OF SHEAR FORECAST.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS IN\r\nLINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. \r\nAFTERWARDS...THE GFS MODEL WAS THE MAIN BASIS FOR THE 3 AND 4 DAY\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 25.7N  49.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 27.7N  49.1W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  47.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 34.0N  45.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 38.5N  43.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 48.0N  39.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 55.5N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCLUDE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND 80 KT FROM A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT FROM UW/CIMSS...AND THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nREMNANT OF AN INNER EYEWALL WITH A LARGER OUTER EYEWALL.  AS THE\r\nINNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE SOME WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED...BUT NOW THAT KARL IS BEGINNING RECURVATURE WITH AN\r\nACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...I DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH\r\nCONTRACTION OR STRENGTHENING OF THE OUTER EYEWALL.  KARL SHOULD\r\nDECAY ONLY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY\r\nSHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER\r\nPART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/12.  KARL IS SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL\r\nTURN EASTWARD WITH THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT TO\r\nCARRY THE FORECAST OUT TO 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 26.9N  49.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 28.9N  48.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 32.0N  46.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 36.5N  43.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 42.0N  42.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  40.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 59.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 65.0N  18.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON BRIEFLY SHOWED A LARGE EYE BUT THIS IS NOW\r\nBECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED. KARL SHOULD DECAY SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO BEFORE COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AFFECT THE\r\nCYCLONE. HOWEVER... BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP KARL A POTENT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nKARL HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n020/14...AND A GENERAL MOTION IN THIS DIRECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nKARL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2-3 DAYS. AFTERTHAT...GLOBAL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THE REMNANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL TURN EASTWARD WITH THE\r\nHIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY\r\nFASTER TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS...UKMET...GFDL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 28.2N  48.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.1N  47.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 33.7N  44.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 38.7N  42.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 44.0N  42.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 53.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 60.0N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z...NEAR GREENWICH MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nJUST WHEN IT LOOKED LIKE KARL WAS ON A WEAKENING TREND...DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE NOW 5.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 5.0 FROM SAB. COLD\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE ONCE AGAIN COMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE\r\nEYE...WHICH ITSELF IS RAGGED BUT A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT AS A COMPROMISE OF THE T-NUMBERS.\r\n \r\nUW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT KARL IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A POCKET OF LOWER SHEAR VALUES BUT THE ENVIRONMENT IS MUCH\r\nMORE HOSTILE IN ITS FORECAST PATH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT THAT KARL IS\r\nHELD SLIGHTLY STRONGER DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS GIVEN THE\r\nRECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTO BEGIN BY 48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nBELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF GREENLAND AND\r\nICELAND.\r\n \r\nKARL IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 025/19. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A\r\nSLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT\r\nTHEN KARL WILL MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WHEN IT BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE GFDL AND UKMET BUT OTHERWISE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED PATH-WISE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 30.0N  47.3W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 32.4N  45.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 36.4N  43.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 41.6N  42.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 47.0N  41.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 56.0N  31.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 63.0N  14.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z...EAST OF PRIME MERIDIAN\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nKARL HAS CONTINUED ITS INTENSIFYING TREND WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE\r\nEYE BECOMING COLDER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE ALSO JUMPED\r\nWITH A PAIR OF 6.0'S FROM TAFB AND SAB THIS MORNING.  THE EYE IS\r\nSTILL A BIT RAGGED BUT KARL APPEARS TO HAVE REGAINED MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KARL\r\nIS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS WITH GENERALLY\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nPROBABLE WITH THE FORECAST INTENSITY BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.   EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 36 HOURS AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 21C.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nON TRACK...MOVING ABOUT 030/20.  SOME ACCELERATION IS LIKELY AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... WITH A BEND TO\r\nTHE NORTH EXPECTED AS KARL BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE TROUGH\r\nFEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN GUNA AND THE GFS. \r\nWIND RADII WERE MODIFIED AT 72 HOURS BASED ON GFS GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 31.7N  45.8W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 34.5N  44.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 39.5N  42.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 44.5N  41.5W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 49.5N  38.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 58.5N  22.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 65.5N   5.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nTHE SHORT TERM INITIAL MOTION IS 040/23.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nSCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAS IT IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A\r\nLITTLE RIGHT OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND\r\nKARL SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE FEATURE IS QUITE RAGGED AND VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST IS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KNOTS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...BUT WEAKENING COULD BE EVEN FASTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 33.8N  43.8W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 37.6N  42.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 42.9N  41.8W    85 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 47.4N  40.7W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 61.0N  19.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/22.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS EARLIER WITH KARL ACCELERATING MAINLY NORTHWARD ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND\r\nCUTTING OFF A LOW.  THE MOTION IS FORCAST TO BE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER\r\n48 HOURS...AND KARL THEN MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND KARL\r\nSHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS.  SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPOSING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALSO RAPIDLY\r\nDECREASING AND BECOMING POORLY ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nFORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL FOR 36 HOURS AND THEN SLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND AS BAROCLINIC\r\nENERGY SOURCES MAINTAIN A STRONG CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 35.7N  43.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 39.7N  42.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 44.7N  42.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 49.2N  40.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 54.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 62.0N   9.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nKARL IS NOW EXPERIENCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE MORE OBVIOUS\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BECOMING\r\nMORE UNCERTAIN. CI NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.5...5.0...AND 4.0 FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF 80 KT. A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A\r\nPRESSURE OF 963 MB...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A STRONGER\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THIS PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP IS ALLOWABLE\r\nFOR A HIGH-LATITUDE STORM. THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT KARL IS\r\nIN THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE\r\nCOMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES\r\nENVELOPED WITHIN THE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES SOUTH OF GREENLAND.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nSEEMS TO HAVE BEEN CORRECTLY FORECASTING THE HURRICANE'S RECENT\r\nINTENSITY TRENDS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nKARL IS STILL ACCELERATING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 020/26. THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT WILL THEN MAKE A RAPID TURN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...DUE TO A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. KARL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE\r\nBRITISH ISLES BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 38.7N  41.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 42.6N  40.9W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 47.5N  39.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 52.2N  35.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 57.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nKARL CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH COMPLETED\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.\r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A POORLY\r\nORGANIZED...RAGGED...LOW CENTER AND AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE ABSENT\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION...ALL INDICATIVE OF THE FINAL PHASE OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DOWN TO\r\n55 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A\r\nGENEROUS 75 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AN ACCELERATING 020/26. KARL SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nMOVING IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nIS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG\r\nUPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS. KARL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTH OF THE\r\nBRITISH ISLES BY DAY 3.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 40.8N  41.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 44.5N  40.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 49.4N  37.7W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 54.5N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 59.2N  19.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nKARL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CORE OF REASONABLY COLD\r\nCONVECTION...SO WE CANNOT QUITE DECLARE KARL EXTRATROPICAL YET. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T/CI\r\nNUMBERS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. KARL WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH\r\nCOLDER WATERS AND ANY BAROCLINIC INFLUX OF ENERGY SHOULD BE OVER\r\nNOW...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS KARL LOSES TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/35...AS KARL IS WHIPPING AROUND AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  KARL SHOULD DISENGAGE FROM\r\nTHIS LOW OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND AS IT DOES SO SLOW ITS\r\nFORWARD MOTION AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 44.4N  40.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 48.9N  39.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 53.7N  36.1W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 58.7N  28.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 62.0N  14.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE JUST SOME VERY SMALL SLIVERS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NEAR OR JUST UNDER\r\n65 KT AND THE 18Z WIND SPEED IS SET AT 65 KNOTS.  KARL IS NOW OVER\r\nWATER LESS THAN 20 DEGREES C AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\nKARL IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/26.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND MERGE WITH\r\nANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 47.3N  40.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 51.0N  38.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 56.0N  32.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 60.5N  21.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 64.0N   6.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND\r\nHURRICANE KARL IS WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND\r\nSPEED BY 20 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE...ONLY INCREASING THE WIND TO 45\r\nKT.  THIS IS BASED ON THE SUGGESTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE\r\nOUTFLOW FROM KARL IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSIONS CONVECTION AND MAY HAVE AN INHIBITING EFFECT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOT\r\nREPRESENTED WELL IN THE GFS AND IN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE KARL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 13.3N  33.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 13.6N  34.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 14.6N  37.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.8N  39.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.1N  41.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N  44.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N  46.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 25.0N  48.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THIS MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...THE SAME RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS MOVING KARL. THE CONSENSUS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDIRECTION. BASED UPON THIS GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK. THIS A MAJOR CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTD THIRTEEN IS EXHIBITING VERY COLD TOP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND INTERMITTENTLY IN A BAND WITHIN 160 NM TO ITS NW. THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST THE\r\nPREVIOUS 6 HOURS AS IT HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE\r\n2.0...JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nNOW FOLLOWING A MORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED...\r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS... ALLOWING FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM.  AFTER THIS TIME THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES...ALTHOUGH...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AGUIRRE/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 13.2N  34.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 13.5N  35.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 13.7N  37.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.9N  38.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N  39.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.8N  42.9W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.3N  45.6W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N  48.6W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING\r\nA SMALL BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER BUT HAS NO\r\nDISCERNABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AT THIS TIME.  INDEED...THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS CAUGHT BETWEEN HURRICANE KARL ABOUT 650 NM TO ITS WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS\r\nSOUTHEAST.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAKE THE DEPRESSION\r\nTHE WEAKEST OF THESE THREE SYSTEMS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...I AM RELUCTANT TO DO SO GIVEN THE COMPETING SYSTEMS IN\r\nITS NEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS QUITE FOSSIBLE THIS DEPRESSION\r\nWILL BE SHORT-LIVED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL.  AFTER THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE GIVING A WIDE\r\nVARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS LOSES THE DEPRESSION IN THE\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST...WHILE THE UKMET ENTRAINS IT INTO\r\nKARL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL KEEPS THE DEPRESSION AND TAKES\r\nIT WEST AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST AS HEIGHTS BUILD IN AFTER KARL\r\nLIFTS OUT...WHILE THE BAM MODELS HAVE VARYING DEGREES OF A BEND TO\r\nTHE RIGHT.  CURRENTLY THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER THAN\r\nKARL...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF IT MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWEST ON KARL'S EASTERN PERIPHERY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO REFLECT THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION...BUT THEN BENDS THE TRACK BACK TO\r\nTHE WEST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE ASSUMPTION\r\nTHAT KARL WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION BEHIND.  GIVEN THE VERY\r\nCOMPLICATED ENVIRONMENT...THIS IS A RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 13.5N  34.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.6N  36.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.1N  38.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N  39.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.0N  41.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N  45.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N  48.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-09-20 12:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE SOURCES AND INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED. THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES INDICATE A\r\nBANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO DEVELOP...AND A 20/0955Z SSMI\r\nOVERPASS REVEALED A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE WAS PRESENT. SUCH FEATURES\r\nARE TYPICALLY CHARACTERISTIC OF 45-55 KT TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 20/0902Z\r\nUW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 999.1 MB. THEREFORE...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM LISA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ONLY\r\nTO INDICATE THE INCREASE TO TROPICAL STRENGTH...AND AN INCREASE IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nLISA IS A SMALL AND RATHER COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS SUCH...IT IS\r\nSUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARP CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH STRENGTHENING AND\r\nWEAKENING. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR\r\nLESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST. AFTER THAT...LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO POSSIBLY PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION TREND...SO\r\nONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...WITH\r\nA LEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...IF LISA TAKES\r\nA MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\n...THEN THE SHEAR WILL BE LESS AND MORE STRENGTHENING WOULD BE\r\nPOSSIBLE THAN WHAT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1200Z 13.5N  35.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.6N  36.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.1N  38.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N  39.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.0N  41.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N  45.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N  48.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  51.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nLISA REMAINS A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...INCLUDING AND\r\nOCCASIONAL HINT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 20/0903Z AMSU AND 20/0955Z SSMI OVERPASSES \r\nREVEALED A SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE WAS PRESENT. SUCH FEATURES ARE\r\nTYPICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH 45-55 KT TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON RECENT UW-CIMSS\r\nAND CIRA AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES OF 999.1 AND 998 MB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/10.  THERE REMAINS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.\r\nLISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE\r\nCURRENTLY BETWEEN LISA AND KARL TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT TO SOME DEGREE. THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT WEAKENS THE RIDGE AND PULLS LISA\r\nNORTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...NOGAPS IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT\r\nEVEN IDENTIFIES LISA BEYOND 24-36 HOURS...AND IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nSUFFERING FROM ITS USUAL OVERDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nALLOWS LISA TO ERODE THE NARROW RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH IT. THIS\r\nSOLUTION HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE CURRENT VERY SMALL DIAMETER\r\nOF LISA...AND THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH EXPECTED\r\nTO KEEP THE DIAMETER OF THE CYCLONE SMALLER THAN AVERAGE THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM MODELS. \r\n \r\nSMALL COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE LISA ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHARP\r\nCHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING. THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...SO STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE SEEMS\r\nLIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN BY LATER TODAY. BY 36 HOURS...LOW TO MODERATE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION\r\n...SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE LONGER TIME\r\nPERIODS. IF LISA REMAINS SOUTH OF 15N LATITUDE WHERE THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LILELY BE\r\nLESS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 13.6N  35.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.8N  37.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 14.3N  39.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.8N  40.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N  42.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.8N  45.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N  48.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N  51.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...LISA STILL\r\nREMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE BANDING EYE FEATURE OBSERVED\r\nEARLIER TODAY HAS DISSAPEARED UNDER A STRONG BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...\r\nTHE INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...AND A 20/1547Z AQUA1\r\nOVERPASS SHOWING A MID- AND LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ARE MY REASONS\r\nFOR REMAINING HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10.  THERE REMAINS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.\r\nLISA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN\r\nLISA AND KARL. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO\r\nREMAIN INTACT...DESPITE THE POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE BY\r\nALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT FOR NOGAPS. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS MODEL\r\nAPPEARS TO OVERDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALLOWS IT TO\r\nERODE THE NARROW RIDGE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH IT. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE GFDL...GFDN...AND DEEP BAM MODELS MOVE LISA\r\nWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE\r\nDEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST. UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO MORE\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND FOLLOWS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF ENOUGH\r\nRIDGING KEEPING THE VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD...\r\nWITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME.\r\n \r\nCOMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE CAN STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY...BUT\r\nCAN ALSO WEAKEN JUST AS FAST. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN AROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...WHICH MAY\r\nALLOW LISA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.\r\nAFTERWARDS 36 HOURS...LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS IF IT WAS WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT\r\nMUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 13.8N  36.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.1N  38.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 14.6N  39.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.2N  41.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.9N  43.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.7N  46.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N  49.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N  52.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTION\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2004\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION...LISA REPLACES JEANNE AT THE BEGINNING OF SECOND\r\nSENTENCE IN SECOND PARAGRAPH. \r\n\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH GIVE 45 KTS.  THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS REDUCED TO 50 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nKARLS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM AND THIS SHOULD MAKE\r\nANY STRENGTHENING RATHER DIFFICULT.  THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS\r\nTHIS AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO UNDER GO LITTLE CHANGE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME THE SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...THE SAME AS IT WAS 24 HOURS\r\nAGO. LISA IS MOVING WESTWARD WITHOUT ANY INFLUENCE FROM KARLS\r\nCIRCULATION. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. LISA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN\r\nA WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A NARROW\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN LISA AND KARL. THE ONLY MODEL\r\nTHAT HAS A HINT OF WHAT IS GOING ON IS THE GFDL...WHICH MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM WESTWARD AND EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH-WESTWARD BEGINNING AT THE 4\r\nDAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 13.8N  37.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.9N  39.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 14.5N  41.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 15.1N  43.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.4N  44.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 15.6N  46.2W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 15.7N  48.1W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 16.1N  50.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nLISA CONTINUES UNDER NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM\r\nKARL..WITH THE CENTER IN THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE VERY COLD\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  LISA IS EMBEDDED IN A TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING FROM HURRICANE KARL THROUGH LISA TO A DISTURBANCE\r\nCENTERED NEAR 9.5N31W.  EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS SEEN NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE TROUGH AXIS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW SOUTHWEST OF IT. \r\nTHERE SEEM TO BE THREE POTENTIAL TRACK OPTIONS FOR LISA.  FIRST...A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION AS KARL MOVES AWAY AND\r\nRIDGING DEVELOPS NORTH OF LISA.  THIS IS FAVORED BY THE NHC98. \r\nSECOND...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN THE WAKE OF KARL. \r\nTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET.  FINALLY...A TURN TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST DEVELOPS.  THIS\r\nIS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE\r\nPREVIOUS WESTWARD MOTION AS THERE IS CURRENTLY NO OBVIOUS SIGN THAT\r\nEITHER OF THE OTHER SCENARIOS ARE BEGINNING.  ONE SMALL CHANGE IS\r\nTO INTRODUCE A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AFTER 96 HR...AS LISA WOULD BE\r\nAPPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BY THAT TIME. \r\nTHIS IS ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE.  LISA IS A SMALL\r\nSYSTEM BETWEEN TWO LARGER ONES...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT IT\r\nCOULD GET SWALLOWED...PARTICULARLY BY THE DISTURBANCE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  IF THAT DOES NOT HAPPEN... LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL\r\nFORECAST SIGNIFICANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIN 48-72 HR...WHICH COULD CONSIDERABLY DAMAGE LISA.  THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL BOTH SLOWLY STRENGTHEN LISA IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE LISA MIGHT NOT SURVIVE FOR 120 HR.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 14.0N  38.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 14.3N  40.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.9N  42.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.4N  43.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N  45.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N  47.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 16.1N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN AFFECTING LISA APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING. THIS HAS ALLOWED OUTFLOW\r\nTO REDEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OVERNIGHT BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...INDICATED BY CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...HAS\r\nPERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS NOW. AN UW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE\r\nESTIMATE OF 987.4 MB...ALONG WITH A CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE AODT OF\r\nT4.1...OR 66 KT...SUGGEST THAT LISA COULD BE A HURRICANE. HOWEVER\r\n...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ONLY 45-55 KT FROM THE THREE\r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF THESE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MOST OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OF LITTLE HELP...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...GFDN\r\nAND CANADIAN MODELS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS HAVE ALREADY\r\nMISSED THE SHARP NORTHWARD TURN OF HURRICANE KARL LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF LISA. THE 12 LOCATION OF KARL WAS ALREADY 18 HOURS\r\nAHEAD OF AND AT LEAST 2 DEGREES OF LONGITUDE EAST OF THOSE MODELS.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS THAT RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN LISA AND KARL IS STRONGER\r\nTHAN THOSE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...SO THE OFFICIAL ELANS\r\nMORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GFDL-GFDN-CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF TINY LISA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT AND STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD UNTIL THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50-55W LONGITUDE AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY.\r\nTHIS MAY ALLOW LISA TO BRIEFLY GAIN SOME LATITUDE BEFORE THE TROUGH\r\nLIFTS OUT AND THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nMODERATE TO WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT\r\nLISA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nCONSTANT DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO 10-15 KT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST\r\n...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...ASSUMING\r\nLISA SURVIVES THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PATTERN. NOTE-- SINCE LISA\r\nIS A VERY SMALL CYCLONE...IT WILL BE SUBJECT TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 14.2N  39.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.6N  41.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.2N  42.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.7N  44.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.9N  45.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N  50.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N  52.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n \r\nLISA REMAINS A VERY COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE AND...AS SUCH...IS\r\nSUBJECT TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THIS MAY HAVE BEEN THE\r\nCASE EARLIER TODAY AS AN SSMI OVERPASS INDCIATED THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION/EYE FEATURE BECAME DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS. HOWEVER...DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-80C...HAS DEVELOPED INTO A CDO-LIKE FEATURE OVER THE OLDER\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED AT 60 KT...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/07.  ONCE AGAIN...THERE\r\nREMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EITHER LOSE LISA WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS...OR QUICKLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD\r\nLIKE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS ARE INDICATING. HOWEVER...THOSE\r\nTWO MODELS HAVE HAD A PERSISTENT RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS SINCE THEY HAVE NOT HANDLED THE RIDGE BETWEEN KARL AND LISA\r\nVERY WELL. WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS NARROW...IT IS STRONG\r\nTO KEEP VERY SMALL LISA MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IN\r\nADDITION...A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES\r\nSOUTHEAST OF LISA IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF\r\nMOTION AS THAT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LIKELY GROW AND INTENSITY.\r\nTHE GFDL HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL TO CONSISTENTLY PICK UP ON THIS\r\nINTERACTION AND IT FORCES LISA SHARPLY SOUTHWARD IN 48 HOURS. WHILE\r\nTHE SPECIFICS OF THE GFDL TRACK ARE LIKELY OVERDONE...ITS\r\nCONSISTENT TREND IN MOVING LISA SOUTHWARD CAN NOT BE IGNORED. A\r\nSLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND IN THE TRACK IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECASTING A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS BY 96-120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF LISA...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY\r\nINCREASES ARE FORECAST...EVEN THOUGH RAPID FLUCTUATIONS ARE\r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 14.4N  40.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.8N  41.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.2N  43.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.2N  44.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N  45.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 15.5N  48.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N  50.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2004\r\n\r\nON IR SATELLITE IMAGES...LISA CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS A RATHER SMALL\r\nBLOB OF CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH SO THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nSOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THERE IS A LARGE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ENCROACHING FROM THE EAST...WHICH COULD CUT\r\nOFF SOME OF THE INFLOW INTO LISA.  ALSO...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA.  ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE...NOW 285/06. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS PROBLEMATIC. ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT\r\nLISA IS GOING TO TAKE A SOUTHWARD PLUNGE... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE OR TO THE BUILDING OF A RIDGE\r\nTO THE WEST...GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF LISA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND FASTER THAN THE LATEST FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON A 21Z QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 14.4N  40.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.9N  41.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.4N  43.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N  44.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.3N  45.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 16.7N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  48.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N  50.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES AS A RATHER SMALL...AMORPHOUS...BLOB OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE VERY\r\nCOLD...THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZATION OTHER THAN A CONCENTRATION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS... THE INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT HOW THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE STORM WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE DISTURBANCE TO ITS\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST.  THE LATTER SYSTEM COULD ALSO BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND WOULD PROBABLY BE A LARGER ONE THAN LISA.  THUS IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE LARGER SYSTEM COULD ABSORB LISA.  OTHERWISE THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING BUT IS BELOW THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE BEYOND 2 DAYS BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIALLY UNFAVORABLE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST.\r\n\r\nIT IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE THE CENTER...BUT...BECAUSE OF THE MODERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nNEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 285/6.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAR FROM \r\nSTRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH CONSIDERABLE SCATTER AMONG THOSE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS THAT ARE ABLE TO TRACK A CENTER IN THEIR FORECAST FIELDS. \r\nTHE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A SHARP SOUTHWARD TURN FOLLOWED BY A SHARP\r\nNORTHWARD TURN.  THE NOGAPS SHOWS ERRATIC MOTION...AND THE GFS\r\nLOSES THE VORTEX IN ITS OUTPUT.  ONLY THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL\r\nTRACK IS SOMEWHAT CLIMATOLOGICAL...SINCE IT DEPICTS A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.  THAT DOES NOT SEEM TO BE AN UNREASONABLE\r\nSCENARIO...SINCE I DO NOT EXPECT LISA TO HAVE MUCH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES AND DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS EVEN SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 14.5N  41.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.8N  42.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.2N  43.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.6N  44.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.8N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N  46.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  48.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N  49.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A SMALL...MOSTLY EXPOSED\r\nCIRCULATION TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE CORE CONVECTION.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS \r\nAND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  LISA IS BEING AFFECTED BY THE LARGER\r\nAREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS EAST-SOUTHEAST...AS THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 250/5.  IT ALSO IS SUFFERING FROM EASTERLY SHEAR FROM\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN LISA AND KARL.  ALL\r\nIN ALL...THIS IS NOT A SCENARIO THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM...AND IN FACT...LISA COULD GET ABSORBED BY THE\r\nEASTERN DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 72\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET DROP AN UPPER TROUGH DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nBY DAY FIVE...AND THIS WOULD TEND TO PROVIDE AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR EITHER LISA OR THE DISTURBANCE BEHIND IT.\r\n\r\nNUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE TRACKS\r\nFOR LISA.  HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION PREDICTED FOR THE PAST TWO\r\nDAYS BY THE GFDL IS NOW BEGINNING...AND SO CONSIDERABLE WEIGHT HAS\r\nBEEN PLACED ON THIS MODEL.  LISA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN MORE\r\nSOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE.  IF LISA SURVIVES...IN\r\nTHIS SCENARIO IT WOULD THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE BACK SIDE\r\nOF THE DISTURBANCE.  SUCH A SCENARIO BECOMES MORE LIKELY IF LISA'S\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED...WHILE A STRONGER CYCLONE WOULD\r\nBE MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SIMPLER WESTWARD TRACK IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 13.9N  41.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.8N  41.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.2N  42.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 13.0N  42.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N  43.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 14.0N  44.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N  45.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  48.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nA BURST OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OBSCURED THE CENTER...BUT\r\nTHAT CONVECTION IS NOW FADING AND BEING BLOWN OFF BY EASTERLY\r\nSHEARING WINDS ALOFT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN\r\nACCORD WITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF\r\n3.0 FROM TAFB.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE\r\nPRESENCE OF A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ONLY 300 MILES TO THE EAST\r\nOF LISA.  THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THIS LATTER FEATURE IS MORE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT THAN THE SHEARING FLOW OVER LISA...AND IT IS HARD\r\nTO IMAGINE BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS BEING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 48\r\nHOURS.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LISA WILL END UP BEING ABSORBED\r\nBY THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  SHOULD IT\r\nSURVIVE...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE IN 2-3 DAYS\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION FOLLOWING THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nHOWEVER...A STRONG 200 MB TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG DEEP INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER\r\nWHICHEVER OF LISA OR THE DISTURBANCE STILL EXISTS.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 240/5.  LISA AND THE DISTURBANCE ARE\r\nBEGINNING TO REVOLVE AROUND A COMMON CENTER OF ROTATION SOUTH OF A\r\nNARROW RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF KARL.  THE GFS SHOWS THE STRONGEST\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS...TAKING LISA\r\nSOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING IT.  THE GFDL...\r\nNOGAPS...AND UKMET MERELY CONTINUE A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\nABOUT TWO DAYS...KEEPING LISA AS THE STRONGER SYSTEM.  BY THE TIME\r\nTHIS INTERACTION IS OVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED\r\nABOVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPART MORE OF A NORTHWARD MOTION BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 13.7N  41.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 13.4N  42.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.0N  42.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 12.7N  43.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 12.5N  44.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.0N  45.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N  46.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 22 2004\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-8 IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATES THAT THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER OF LISA COMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nHAS BEEN DRIFTING...AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. FURTHER...THIS\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER TUCKED UNDER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.\r\nIN FACT...NEW CONVECTION IS NOW FORMING NEAR THIS LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARRIVING FROM THE EAST ALSO SEEM\r\nBE WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF LISA. THEREFORE...THE MERGER OF\r\nTHE TWO SYSTEMS APPEARS TO BE IN PROGRESS. WHILE IT IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE MERGED SYSTEM COULD BECOME FOCUSED ELSEWHERE\r\nWITHIN THE BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED CIRCULATION...WE WILL FOR NOW\r\nASSUME THAT THIS WILL NOT OCCUR AND WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING LISA\r\nCIRCULATION AS THE DOMINANT ENTITY.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST HAS JUST ABOUT COME\r\nINTO PHASE WITH THE CENTER OF LISA...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WE\r\nEXPECT A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS\r\nAND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE\r\nMODELS ARE HANDLING THIS MERGER/INTERACTION IN A VARIETY OF\r\nWAYS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW A MODEL CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY\r\nDURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST.  THE MODELS DO GENERALLY\r\nAGREE...HOWEVER...ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...FOLLOWED BY\r\nA STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLACKING ANY REASON TO CHANGE THE CURRENT INTENSITY...IT WILL BE HELD\r\nAT 45 KNOTS. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING LISA...BUT\r\nSHIPS INDICATES THIS SHEAR SHOULD ABATE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH\r\nMAY ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND BRINGS LISA TO HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 13.2N  41.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.2N  41.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 13.3N  42.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 13.5N  43.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 14.0N  44.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N  45.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N  48.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n\r\nLISA IS CONTINUING TO MERGE WITH A NEARBY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE.  A\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD A FEW HUNDRED MILES\r\nFROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE STORM IS PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF\r\nTHIS DISTURBANCE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN THIS COMBINED SYSTEM IS NOW BEING PRODUCED BY THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF LISA... AND NOT THE DISTURBANCE.  BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.  LISA'S\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED BY NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE KARL.  AS\r\nKARL MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD...ITS INFLUENCE ON LISA WILL DIMINISH. \r\nNOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AND MORE CONSOLIDATED...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN\r\nWITHIN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT.  THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nA WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER LISA SLOWLY WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 50W IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 13.2N  41.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.3N  41.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 13.4N  42.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 13.6N  43.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.2N  44.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.5N  45.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N  48.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nEARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA IS A LITTLE\r\nDISORGANIZED WITH UPPER LEVEL WINDS FROM THE NORTH CAUSING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  ALSO THERE IS STILL A HINT OF TWO POORLY DEFINED CENTERS. \r\nTHIS ADVISORY IS FOLLOWING THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO BE THE DOMINANT ONE.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES VERY\r\nLITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 36 HOURS AND BRINGS LISA TO A HURRICANE\r\nIN 72 HOURS.  THE  OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN SLOW AND GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS.  THE FORECAST IS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO\r\nWITH SOME EAST-WEST SPREAD AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS EXCEPT AT 12 AND 24 WHEN IT IS LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS SINCE\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS GIVEN MORE WEIGHT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 12.1N  41.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.1N  42.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.3N  42.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 13.2N  43.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N  43.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N  46.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS BLOWN AWAY\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION AND EXPOSED A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF WHERE A CENTER LOCATION WAS ESTIMATED ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THIS REQUIRES A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND IMPLIES\r\nTHAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED IN A CYCLONIC OOP OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS\r\nAND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 300/05.  THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW MOSTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LISA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nIS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE\r\nRELOCATION.\r\n\r\nTHE ABSENCE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS GROUNDS FOR\r\nDOWNGRADING LISA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL WEAKEN SOME OVER THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...A LITTLE MORE THAN SHIPS BUT NOT NEARLY AS\r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 14.3N  40.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 14.4N  41.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 14.9N  41.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N  43.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.3N  44.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.2N  45.2W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N  47.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2004\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY DEFINED EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 80 NM TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPACT LISA.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING OF THE NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT LISA WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER\r\nTROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE GFS INDICATES STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR BY DAY 4 AND OPENS LISA INTO A WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST BUT NOT\r\nQUITE AS GENEROUS AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/6 KT. FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO CONFORM WITH THE CONU\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 14.7N  42.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N  42.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N  44.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.9N  45.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N  46.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N  47.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N  48.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N  48.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO MOVE\r\nBENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHIS LEADS US TO BELIEVE THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE DECREASING\r\nSOMEWHAT. DVORAK CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT\r\n30 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON A 24/0511Z TRMM OVERPASS WHICH INDICATED A\r\nPOORLY DEFINED LOW CENTER. SHIPS SUGGESTS WEAKENING OF THE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THE 48 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...THE INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT LISA WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER\r\nTROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT NOT SIGNFICANT ENOUGH TO PREVENT\r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES\r\nSTRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT THE SAME TIMEFRAME AND OPENS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AND IS BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/9 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nSHOULD INFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE\r\nCONU CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 14.6N  43.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.2N  44.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N  45.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N  46.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N  47.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 28.0N  46.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 33.0N  43.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND AN 0852 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT LISA WAS\r\nLIKELY A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.  12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nWERE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...SINCE THEN THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 70 NM\r\nNORTH OF THE CONVECTION.  THEREFORE LISA WILL REMAIN A 30 KT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SOUTHWARD BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT 24 HOUR\r\nSATELLITE LOOPS SUGGEST THAT LISA COMPLETED ITS ORIGINAL CYCLONIC\r\nLOOP LATE YESTERDAY AND THEN MOVED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A TIME\r\nOVERNIGHT. IT IS ASSUMED THAT A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL RESUME\r\nSHORTLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  THE RIDGE NORTH OF LISA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nTHIS SHOULD TURN LISA NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 \r\nTO 72 HOURS.  IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS AND GFDL INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE TROUGH MAY NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP THE CYCLONE WHILE THE NOGAPS\r\nAND UKMET ARE MUCH FASTER AND FURTHER NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK INDICATES A SOMEWHAT SLOWER MOTION AT 96 AND 120 HOURS THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LEANS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS/GFDL\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN A\r\nLITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY\r\nAS LISA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT NEARLY AS\r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS LISA TO A HURRICANE IN \r\n60 HOURS.  THE 12Z RUN OF THIS MODEL WAS ALSO INITIALIZED WHEN LISA\r\nAPPEARED TO BE STRONGER THAN IT DOES NOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 14.1N  43.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.8N  44.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N  45.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.8N  46.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.8N  46.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N  46.4W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 28.0N  45.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 31.5N  43.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER \r\nOF LISA REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\n18Z DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT 30 KT \r\nAND LISA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK TODAY...\r\nTHERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN DETERMINING THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND A TRACK OF\r\n285/9 KT. THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTANT IN FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AHEAD OF A\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY.  IN\r\nTHE LONGER RANGE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LISA WILL NOT GET\r\nPICKED UP AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND ARE NOW FORECASTING A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED\r\nWESTWARD BUT REMAINS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAT 96 AND 120 HOURS AND LEANS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT \r\n24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS THEN LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AS LISA IS \r\nEXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES LISA A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 14.4N  44.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 14.9N  45.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  46.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  47.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.7N  47.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 23.8N  47.8W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  47.8W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 31.0N  47.8W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF LISA REMAINS DISPLACED ABOUT 50 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS AS WELL. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM\r\nAFWA AND SAB...TAFB IS 35 KT BASED ON A POSITION CLOSER TO THE\r\nCONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO\r\nPRODUCE 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER LISA. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nTHEN LEVELS OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. \r\nTHE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE UKMET ARE NOW INDICATING A SUBTLE TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAY 4 AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN\r\nBEHIND THE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE\r\nNOGAPS...GFDL...UKMET AND THE GFS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 14.3N  44.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N  45.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  46.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.2N  47.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N  47.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 30.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A STRONG\r\nBURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND A\r\nDEVELOPING BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 35 KT. THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH\r\nCONTINUES TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER LISA. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nTHEN LEVELS OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 315/8 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...THE\r\nAVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING EITHER A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST BY DAY 4. THIS MOTION IS PROVIDED BY A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A\r\nMID-UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS\r\nTHE SAME RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING HURRICANE JEANNE. THE GFS\r\nREMAINS IN THE WEAKNESS AFTER 96 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...REFLECTS A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER\r\nRIDGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS AND IS BASED OFF OF A CONSENSUS\r\nOF ALL THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 15.2N  45.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  46.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N  47.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N  48.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.5N  48.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N  50.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 27.0N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 29.5N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS TRIED TO\r\nWRAP AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. CURRENT DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. LISA WILL REMAIN A\r\n35 KT TROPICAL STORM. WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED UPON A\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 320/8 KT. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME\r\nFOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH WILL ALLOW\r\nLISA TO MOVE IN A NORTHWEST DIRECTION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\nTHE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT WITH A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE\r\nSAME RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING HURRICANE JEANNE. THE\r\nUKMET...MOVES LISA SLOWER DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND THEREFORE TURNS THE CYCLONE MUCH SOONER AND IS FURTHER\r\nSOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nGFS SOLUTION. \r\n\r\nSHIPS MODEL WAS INITIALIZED WITH NORTHERLY SHEAR OF 17 KT OVER \r\nLISA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE \r\nBEGINNING TO LESSON. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS. SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE\r\nSHEAR MAY REMAIN LOW BEYOND 72 HOURS ALLOWING LISA TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE\r\nAND LEVEL OFF LISA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 15.9N  45.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.8N  46.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N  47.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 19.4N  47.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 23.7N  50.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 25.5N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 27.0N  54.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n \r\nLISA AS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AN ESTIMATED TRACK OF 335/9 KT.  THE\r\nEXACT MOTION HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AS SEVERAL\r\nSMALL CLOUD SWIRLS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER.  THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND ON THE EAST SIDE HAS WRAPPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND LISA WILL REMAIN A 35 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LISA TRACKING\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET WHICH\r\nSTART OUT WITH A SLOWER NORTHWEST MOTION TURN LISA WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS AND GFDL WHICH HAVE A FASTER MOTION DO NOT SHOW\r\nAS SHARP A TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT AND DOES NOT LEAN TOWARD ONE SOLUTION OR THE OTHER...BUT\r\nREMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH \r\n72 HOURS...THEN LEVELS LISA OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\nTHIS FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN \r\nIS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 17.2N  45.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.3N  46.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.8N  47.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 21.4N  47.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 23.2N  48.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 25.5N  50.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 28.0N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 30.0N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED\r\nORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER HAS TUCKED IN FURTHER BENEATH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE\r\nSITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES AND A 2025Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WHICH REVEALED A\r\nNUMBER OF REASONABLE 45 KT VECTORS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BAND. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND BRINGS LISA UP TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 335/9. LISA IS MOVING WITHIN A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS\r\nSPLIT INTO 2 CLUSTERS. THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW A RELATIVELY FAST\r\nMOTION SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHILE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU\r\nSUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE NAVY GFDN HAVE LISA MISS THE TROUGH AND THEN\r\nINDICATE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS\r\nIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE\r\nOPTIONS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 18.0N  46.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N  46.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.7N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N  48.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 24.3N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 29.5N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 31.5N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LOCATION OF LISA IS SOMETHING OF A MYSTERY THIS MORNING...AS\r\nDVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES AT 06Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ABOUT 70\r\nMILES APART...AND THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nWERE NOT ESPECIALLY HELPFUL IN RESOLVING THE CENTER.  WHAT DATA DO\r\nEXIST SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY I HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN\r\nCONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 350/7.  POSITION UNCERTAINTY LEADS TO POOR\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE QUIKSCAT PASS ABOUT 9\r\nHOURS AGO. LISA IS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR WINDS AND IMAGERY SHOW A BAND OF\r\nWESTERLIES OVER AND NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...AND THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nSHOW THIS SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THIS PERIOD...AND IS A\r\nLITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE COULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nLISA IS SOUTHEAST OF A DEEP TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT THE\r\nNOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFS ALL AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT OUT\r\nAND LEAVE LISA BEHIND.  THROUGH 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nAS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THERE\r\nIS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nTURNING LISA NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF JEANNE...AND\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL STILL SHOWING A WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. \r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS ALSO ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY INITIALLY TO REFLECT THE RECENT FIXES AND APPARENT\r\nMOTION...BUT IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD TO BE\r\nIN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...SUPERENSEMBLE...AND GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 18.4N  46.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 19.7N  46.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.4N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N  47.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 24.5N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 26.5N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 29.0N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 32.0N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n\r\nMETEOSAT-8 VISIBLE AND 1.6 MICRON NEAR-INFRARED IMAGERY ALONG WITH\r\nGOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY GIVE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT POSITION LOCATION\r\nFOR LISA. THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A\r\nPORTION OF THE CENTER IS DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA ARE SPLIT BETWEEN 55 KTS AND 45 KTS...SO FOR THIS ADVISORY THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED TO 50 KTS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 345/7. LISA IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF A DEEP MID-LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS...THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC AND LEAVE LISA BEHIND. THE SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE\r\nWEST OF A MID-LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WHICH SLOWLY BUILDS\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AND LISA STAYS EAST OF OF A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A CONTINUAL NORTHWEST TRACK. THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE ARE MOSTLY IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED NORTHWEST\r\nMOVEMENT OF LISA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS BUT THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...WITH THE GREATEST ADJUSTMENT IN THE\r\nEXTENDED TIME PERIODS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR LISA REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE. STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SYSTEM UP\r\nTO 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CAP ANY DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE\r\nSHEAR INDICATED BY SHIPS DOES DIMINISH AND SHOULD ALLOW LISA TO\r\nDEVELOP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHOLDS LISA TO 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED TIME\r\nPERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 19.0N  46.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N  46.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.8N  47.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 23.1N  48.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N  49.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 26.5N  50.3W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 29.5N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 32.5N  53.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LISA IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS THE CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nPRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND WESTERLY SHEAR IMPACTS THE\r\nSYSTEM. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS ELONGATED IN\r\nTHE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED\r\nTO 45 KTS BASED ON TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES THAT INDICATE A SLIGHT\r\nDOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nIN THE PRIMARY CONVECTION HAVE ALSO DESCREASED SO THE INITIAL IS\r\nSET TO 45 KTS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 355/7. THE SHORT TERM MOTION HAS\r\nBEEN NEARLY DUE NORTH...HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE\r\nMOVEMENT OF LISA WILL BE PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. LISA IS\r\nCURRENTLY POSITIONED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LISA IS STEERED\r\nABOUT BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH THE\r\nGFS IS GENERALLY LEFT OF TRACK EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND\r\nREJOINS THE GUIDANCE GROUP AT 72 HRS...AFTER WHICH THE VORTEX\r\nTRACKERS LOSE THE CIRCULATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TWEAKED A\r\nBIT TOWARD CONU AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS WITH THE GREATEST ADJUSTMENT\r\nOCCURRING AT 120 HRS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN LISA ABOVE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH UNTIL AFTER 72 HRS.  BY THIS TIME THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nDECREASES TO LOW VALUES...SO THE WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT IN LISA WOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE\r\nIS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.  NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM 0-72 HRS...BUT LISA MAY REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...IF IT CAN SURVIVE THE\r\nCURRENT SHEAR.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 19.7N  46.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 20.9N  46.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N  47.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 23.8N  48.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 25.2N  48.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 28.1N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 30.5N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 32.5N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 26 2004\r\n \r\nLISA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST SIDE OF AN OCCASIONALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  A 2337\r\nUTC SSMI MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN THOUGHT AND HAS BEEN MOVING RATHER SLOWLY.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED WITH A SHEARED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE PATTERN PRESENT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.  \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY TO THE\r\nNORTH AROUND 5 KT FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN THE NEAR-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nSLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.A MORE NORTHWESTERLY OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE SOON DUE TO A MIDDLE-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LISA. THE\r\nFORECAST BEYOND 2 DAYS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD\r\nIN MODEL GUIDANCE. THERE SEEMS TO BE TWO CLUSTERS OF SOLUTIONS\r\nEMERGING. THE UKMET/GFS MODELS WANT TO RECURVE LISA THRU A BREAK IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 50W. THE OTHER CLUSTER COMPOSED OF THE\r\nNOGAPS/GFDN/GFDL SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM WILL NOT RECURVE AND WILL\r\nINSTEAD TAKE A WESTERLY TURN UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IF THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION CONTINUES THE\r\nMORE WESTERLY MOTION COULD BE CORRECT AS THE RIDGE WOULD HAVE MORE\r\nTIME TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF LISA. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SLOW THE MOTION CONSIDERABLY IN THE MEDIUM-\r\nRANGE BETWEEN THE TWO CLUSTERS.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LISA HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING OVER THE COOL WAKE OF KARL...FURTHER HINDERING ITS\r\nDEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 24\r\nHOURS WHEN THE STORM MOVES OVER WARMER WATER WITH ABOUT THE SAME\r\nAMOUNT OF SHEAR. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nDECREASE IN TWO OR THREE DAYS AS AN UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM THE\r\nMID-LATITUDES WEST OF LISA. THIS PATTERN WOULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER WARM WATER NEAR 28C BUT THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE STORM WILL BE AT THAT POINT.\r\nWITH SO MUCH AMBUIGUITY PRESENT THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 19.7N  46.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 20.8N  46.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 22.4N  47.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N  48.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 25.4N  49.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 27.5N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 29.0N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 31.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004\r\n \r\nLISA HAS REMAINED STEADY-STATE OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nSHEARED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH NO NET CHANGE IN THE DEPTH OF THE\r\nCONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN PULSATING NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS BASED ON DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n\r\nSHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY FROM GOES-12 AND METEOSAT-8 INDICATE A\r\nCONTINUED SLOW MOTION...ESTIMATED TO BE JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH AT\r\nABOUT 5 KT.  LISA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS IN\r\nBETWEEN RIDGING TO THE EAST AND WEST.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE UKMET...INSIST THAT A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE EASTERN\r\nRIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF LISA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS\r\nTHREE THROUGH FIVE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SHOWING A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE GFS AND UKMET DEPICTING RECURVATURE\r\nFOLLOWED BY RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE UKMET SEEMS A BIT\r\nFAST INITIALLY...AND THE GFS TRACK RESULTS FROM THE MODEL FORMING A\r\nNEW VORTEX WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ONE...SO WE ARE NOT\r\nQUITE READY TO FOLLOW THESE SOLUTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS\r\nFORECAST REMAINS LARGE.\r\n \r\nUNTIL THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELAXES IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GFS/SHIPS...THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY\r\nSTEADY.  THEREAFTER...WITH WEAKER SHEAR AND SSTS STILL GREATER THAN\r\n27 DEGREES CELSIUS...BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL FORECAST SHOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 20.2N  46.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.4N  46.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.8N  47.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 24.2N  48.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 25.6N  48.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 28.0N  50.1W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 30.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-09-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 27 2004\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-8 AND GOES-12 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW LISA REMAINS AS A\r\nSHEARED SYSTEM WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER. THE CONVECTION IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT CONTINUES TO PULSATE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KTS BASED ON TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CI NUMBERS\r\nOF 3.0 AND 2.5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5. LISA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS SUGGEST THAT LISA\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THIS MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IT WILL\r\nKEEP LISA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...THE MODELS\r\nDIVERGE IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN\r\nCONTINUING MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE\r\nSTEERS THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TENDS\r\nTOWARD CONU AND GUNS MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLOWS THE MOTION AT THE\r\nLONGER TIME PERIOD.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AS STRONG-TO-MODERATE SHEAR\r\nREMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...\r\nTHE SHEAR LOWERS AND ALLOWS LISA TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY FOR 48 HOURS AND THEN\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE IS FORECAST IN THE LATER TIME\r\nPERIOD. IF LISA CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF IN THE PRESENCE OF THE CURRENT\r\nSHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nLISA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND WARM SST REGIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 20.8N  46.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 21.8N  47.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.2N  47.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 24.6N  48.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 26.0N  48.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 29.0N  49.8W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 31.0N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 33.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":34,"Date":"2004-09-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A SHEARED SYSTEM...WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THERE IS NO REASON TO EXPECT THIS SHEAR TO RELAX\r\nSOON...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nFOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF LISA IS FORECAST TO BREAK UP AND\r\nTHIS MAY ALLOW FOR A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  THE\r\nCURRENT NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONES AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE CURRENT GFDL RUN SHOWS MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A POSITIVE BIAS\r\nFOR THIS STORM THUS FAR.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES SHOW A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION TO THE NNW...340/7.  LISA\r\nIS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  TRACK GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS MORE OF A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TURN LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A WEAK APPROACHING\r\nSHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLIES.  WE HAVE NOT ENTIRELY BOUGHT INTO THIS\r\nCHANGE...BUT HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST...TO BE AT\r\nLEAST PARTIALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/SISKO\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 21.5N  46.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N  47.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N  47.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 25.5N  48.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N  48.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 30.5N  49.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 33.0N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 35.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":35,"Date":"2004-09-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2004\r\n \r\nLISA REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS MANAGED TO\r\nKEEP GENERATING NEW CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nTIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF 35 KT IS BASED ON NUMEROUS 30-34 KT NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTORS\r\nNOTED IN A 27/2142Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. WIND SPEEDS OBVIOUSLY COULD\r\nBE HIGHER IN THE DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT\r\nI HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE INTENSITY A LITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE RAPID\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. THIS LOWER INTENSITY\r\nIS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE 1006 MB PRESSURE AND 34 KT WIND\r\nESTIMATES OBTAINED FROM A 27/2046Z AMSU OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD BASED ON AMSU OVERPASS AND QUIKSCAT\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. LISA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A WEAK\r\nTROUGH TO THE WEST. BY 72 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nAPPROACH LISA FROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY RECURVE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN IS THE ONLY\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nLISA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS SO LITTLE...IF ANY...SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...BY 48-96\r\nHOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WHILE\r\nLISA IS STILL OVER 27+ CELSIUS SSTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AND LISA COULD POSSIBLY EVEN REACH MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS\r\nINITIATE A WEAKENING TREND BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 22.3N  46.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 23.4N  46.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 24.9N  46.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 27.0N  47.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 29.0N  47.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 32.0N  47.8W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 35.5N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 37.5N  44.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":36,"Date":"2004-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS HARD TO LOCATE ON NIGHT-VIS AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ABOUT 75 MILES\r\nAPART.  AMBIGUITIES FROM THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2142Z SHOWED THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF LISA WAS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE/SSW AXIS...PERHAPS AS\r\nA RESULT OF THE PERSISTENT ASYMMETRY IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH\r\nIS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nFIRST GOES-12 IMAGES AFTER ECLIPSE ALSO SUGGEST AN ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT 35\r\nKT...IN BETWEEN THE DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS 350/7.\r\n\r\nLISA IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT...WITH THE NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDL THE OUTLIERS TO THE WEST AND EAST RESPECTIVELY.  THE GFDL\r\nSEEMS TO WANT TO MAKE LISA FOLLOW THE CONVECTION...AND THE APPARENT\r\nELONGATION OF THE CIRCULATION MAKES ME THINK THAT THIS COULD BE\r\nSTARTING TO OCCUR.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY TRENDING\r\nEASTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST EASTWARD OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS. \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING LISA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL CUT OFF A SHORT DISTANCE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  IN THE SHORT RUN THIS WILL INCREASE THE\r\nSHEAR OVER LISA...BUT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD DEVELOP AFTER THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF AND\r\nMOVES SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS WOULD BE PARTICULARLY TRUE IF LISA TAKES\r\nTHE MORE EASTWARD TRACK FORECAST BY THE GFDL.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD LISA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT CONSIDERABLY\r\nBELOW THAT OF THE GFDL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 23.1N  46.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 24.3N  46.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 26.3N  46.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 28.7N  46.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 31.0N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 35.0N  45.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 38.0N  41.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 39.0N  36.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":37,"Date":"2004-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CONVECTION WHICH HAS INCREASED A LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY. RECENT\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES ARE BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THAT LISA MAY \r\nBE LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION.\r\nIN FACT..THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH\r\nADDITIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION WILL BE ADJUSTED AND THE INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE\r\nINCREASED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.  AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER KEEP\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...WILL RELAX AS AN UPPER LOW\r\nDEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW\r\nSOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nLISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING\r\nTHIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nAROUND THE UPPER LOW. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 25.0N  47.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 26.6N  47.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  47.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  47.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 39.0N  44.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 41.0N  38.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":38,"Date":"2004-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I\r\nHOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS AN INDICATION OF AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE\r\nEARLIER TODAY ON BOTH MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES...THAT FEATURE\r\nHAS BEEN TRANSIENT AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB. THE STRONG SHEAR WHICH PREVAILED OVER LISA...IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX AS AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT TWO\r\nTO THREE DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.\r\n  \r\nLISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS BETWEEN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH. LISA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. DURING\r\nTHIS PERIOD...LISA COULD MAKE A LITTLE JOG TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nAROUND THE UPPER LOW. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD FINALLY TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS VERY CLOSELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 26.4N  46.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  46.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  46.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 32.0N  47.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 38.0N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 42.0N  40.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 43.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":39,"Date":"2004-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2004\r\n \r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE SOURCES INDICATE LISA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED. A 28/1936Z TRMM OVERPASS INDCIATED\r\nA NICE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS STILL SHEARED ABOUT 30 NMI TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 28/2115Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS REVEALED A SEVERAL RAINFLAGGED WINDS OF 60-70 KT AND A\r\n28/1708Z CIRA/AMSU OVERPASS PROVIDED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND\r\nSURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 59 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE MICROWAVE DATA AND A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM TAFB. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/11. LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nNORTH TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 30-32N\r\nLATITUDE. BY 48-72 HOURS...AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN LISA MORE NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING ABOUT\r\nRECURVATURE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. IN 96-120 HOURS...\r\nLISA IS EXPECTED TO BE CAPTURED BY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL...OR EVEN MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO. \r\n\r\nLISA REMAINS A RATHER TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DEVELOPING A\r\nNICE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE DESPITE RATHER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS LISA HAS BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KT\r\nIN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. LISA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C OR\r\nHIGHER SSTS THROUGH 36 HOURS...SO SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST. AFTER 36 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SUB-25C\r\nSSTS AND SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 27.0N  46.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 28.7N  46.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 30.5N  47.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 32.3N  48.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 34.0N  48.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 43.5N  32.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":40,"Date":"2004-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004\r\n \r\nA REPORT AT 6Z OF 34 KT FROM SHIP FQFL...ABOUT 175 NM NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF LISA...GIVES ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO SOME\r\nOF THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z...AND\r\nSUGGESTS THAT LISA HAD WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT AT THAT TIME.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT ON THIS BASIS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH A SHARPLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW INCREASING NORTH...RATHER THAN\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS IS BEGINNING TO\r\nPUSH OUTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE FORECAST CUTOFF OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nLISA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO REDUCE THE SHEAR AND ALLOW LISA TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11.  A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE LISA IS RELEASED FROM THE LOW AND ENCOUNTERS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE JEANNE.  SOME\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS LISA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS IT COULD\r\nMERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF JEANNE...BUT I WILL CARRY\r\nPOSITIONS OUT TO 120 HOURS IN CASE THE MERGER DOES NOT OCCUR.  NONE\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE EAST OF NORTH MOTION OBSERVED\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SO MY TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS PERHAPS\r\nWORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL HAS A TRACK A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO\r\nTHE WEST OF MINE AND KEEPS LISA STRONGER LONGER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 28.0N  46.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 29.5N  46.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 31.3N  47.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 33.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 35.0N  48.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 42.0N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 43.5N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":41,"Date":"2004-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT LISA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE MORNING AS INDICATED BY A DISTINCT CYCLONICALLY CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND...AND BETTER DEFINED CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE APPEARANCE OF A DEVELOPING EYE\r\nTYPE FEATURE FURTHER SUGGESTS THAT LISA IS BECOMING STRONGER.\r\nHOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB WHERE 3.5 AND\r\n3.0 FROM SAB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL KEEP THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AT 60 KT. OBSERVATIONS OF 45 KNOTS FROM SHIP ZCGH LOCATED\r\nABOUT 100 NM SW OF THE CENTER AND 30 KNOTS FROM SHIP FQFL ABOUT 220\r\nNM NE OF THE CENTER OF LISA WERE USED TO ADJUST THE 34-KNOT WIND\r\nRADII.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF LISA WILL HELP REDUCE SHEAR IN 12 HOURS ALLOWING\r\nFOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE\r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR A\r\nDAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...LISA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST\r\nAND ACCELERATE THROUGH 72 HOURS BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 29.7N  45.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 31.1N  46.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  47.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 35.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 36.5N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 40.5N  44.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 44.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 45.0N  26.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":42,"Date":"2004-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE DAY. LISA\r\nCONSISTS OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL\r\nDEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LISA TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR\r\nIS LOW AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER. \r\n\r\nLISA IS MOVING 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND AN UPPER-LOW LOCATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD THEN REACH THE\r\nWESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH\r\nINCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nLISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE\r\nREMNANTS OF JEANNE...BY 96 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 30.9N  45.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 32.5N  46.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  47.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 36.0N  47.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 38.0N  46.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 42.0N  40.0W    45 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":43,"Date":"2004-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2004\r\n \r\nA RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS APPEARED IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER\r\n...CONVECTION SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE IS SHALLOW WITH THE STRONGEST\r\nCONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. A 29/1657Z CIMSS AMSU\r\nPRESSURE ESTIMATE WAS 981.7 MB AND A 29/2048Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nREVEALED ONE 60-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTOR...SURROUNDED BY\r\nSEVERAL 50-55 KT UNFLAGGED VECTORS...IN THE DRY SLOT REGION IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE RAGGED EYE\r\nFEATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...\r\nDESPITE THE MUCH LOWER DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/09. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS NOW\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS THE LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTH...LISA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BRIEFLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD\r\nTHROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. BY 48 HOURS...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE THE GFDL APPEARING TO BE AN EXTREME\r\nWESTERN OUTLIER MODEL THAT IS PRODUCING A CONSENSUS WEST BIAS.\r\n\r\nTHE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS GRADUALLY\r\nCLOSING. LISA HAS A SHALLOW EYE FEATURE AND WILL BE OVER 26C SSTS\r\nFOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...WHILE REMAINING UNDER VERY LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA\r\nCOULD DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION AROUND THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE LATER\r\nTONIGHT DURING THE USUAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD...\r\nALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. BY 24 HOURS...\r\nLISA WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C AND LOWER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING\r\nABOUT SLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 31.5N  46.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 32.8N  47.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 34.7N  47.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 36.7N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 38.6N  45.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 42.5N  37.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":44,"Date":"2004-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2004\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE REMAINS...DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS DIMINISHING...AS LISA MOVES OVER 26C...79F WATERS. \r\nDVORAK NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN...BUT I WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT\r\n60 KT FOR NOW AND SEE WHAT THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS.  THE\r\nSHEAR WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE WATERS WILL\r\nCOOL ONLY SLOWLY...SO THERE WOULD BE SOME CHANCE FOR LISA TO\r\nBRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH SHOULD THERE BE A RENEWED\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CORE.  NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BY\r\nWHICH TIME LISA SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCIRCULATION OF JEANNE.  GIVEN THE RECENT MARKED DECLINE IN\r\nCONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A FASTER DECAY\r\nTHAN THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS THE LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTH...LISA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nBY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO GET PICKED UP BY THE\r\nAPPROACHING REMNANTS OF JEANNE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR TERMINATING THE TRACK A LITTLE\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 32.5N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 33.8N  47.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 35.6N  47.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 37.7N  46.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO REMNANTS OF JEANNE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":45,"Date":"2004-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS MORNING REVEALS THAT LISA IS MAINTAINING\r\nA VERY DISTINCT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS LISA MOVES\r\nOVER A TONGUE OF COOL WATER LEFT BY THE UPWELLING CAUSED BY\r\nHURRICANE KARL. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF ONLY 35 KNOTS...\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING SUPPORT WINDS OF AT LEAST\r\n55 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION WILL DECREASE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 55 KT. BECAUSE LISA IS OVER COOLER WATERS A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nLISA IS MOVING 340 DEGREES OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...LISA SHOULD SOON BEGIN\r\nMOVING NORTH AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION\r\nOF JEANNE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EXCEPT A\r\nLITTLE TO LEFT AT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AGUIRRE/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 32.8N  47.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 34.2N  48.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 36.7N  48.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 39.3N  46.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":46,"Date":"2004-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHAN EARLIER TODAY. LISA HAS AN EYE FEATURE AND THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SURROUNDING THE EYE\r\nFEATURE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A HURRICANE\r\nAS INDICATED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALTHOUGH IN THE 12-HR OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS AT 60 KNOTS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR LISA TO REACH\r\nHURRICANE STATUS LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. \r\n\r\nLISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS BUT IT SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH. LISA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48\r\nHOURS. THERAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 33.6N  47.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 35.2N  48.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 37.5N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 40.5N  43.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 44.0N  38.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":47,"Date":"2004-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 30 2004\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LIKELY\r\nHAS REMAINED JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE\r\nFEATURE WAS APPARENT IN 30/2101Z TRMM AND 01/0020Z SSMI OVERPASSES\r\n...AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP IN VISIBLE\r\nAND INFRARED IMAGERY FOR THE PAST 9 HOURS. IN ADDITION...A 30/2117Z\r\nUW-CIMSS AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED A PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 989.6 MB.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE PRESSURE AND INTENSITY WILL REMAIN THE SAME AT 990\r\nMB AND 60 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/10. THE LAST 9 HOURS OF\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS INDICATE THAT\r\nLISA HAS MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOCCUR IN THE 12-24 TIME PERIOD AS AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE PICKS UP\r\nTHE CYCLONE. BY 36 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BEGINS TO TRANSITION OVER TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR\r\nPOSSIBLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nLISA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF\r\n5-10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER 24-25C SSTS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION...ENOUGH MODERATE CONVECTION MAY WRAP AROUND THE CENTER\r\nLATER TONIGHT TO FINALLY CLOSE OFF AN EYE IN THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVELS...ALLOWING LISA TO REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER\r\nWATER SHOULD BRING ABOUT A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS WHICH\r\nBRING LISA TO 63 KT AND 69 KT IN 24 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 34.6N  47.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 36.3N  47.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 39.0N  44.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 42.2N  40.4W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 45.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":48,"Date":"2004-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LISA HAS A CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nWRAPPED ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...\r\nSOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nWARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT\r\nWITH TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE\r\nTHE 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/10...AND OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO\r\nLISA MAY BE MOVING EVEN MORE TO THE RIGHT.  THE STORM IS RECURVING\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE REMAINS OF JEANNE...AND AN TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR.  THEREAFTER...LISA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT\r\nIS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nLISA IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN.  THE STORM IS NOW OVER\r\n25C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WATER GETS COLDER ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE\r\nAFTER 12 HR...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING A FRONTAL ZONE\r\nAFTER 24 HR.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH LISA\r\nUNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36-48 HR AND ABSORPTION BY\r\nTHE LARGER LOW BEFORE 72 HR.  THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT\r\nLISA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING.  IF THIS\r\nOCCURS...IT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND NOT CHANGE THE EXPECTED OVERALL\r\nWEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 35.6N  47.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 37.6N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 40.5N  42.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 43.4N  37.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 46.0N  28.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":49,"Date":"2004-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004\r\n \r\nLISA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS\r\nMORNING CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT LISA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN WITH AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...THE RING OF CONVECTION IS\r\nNOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60\r\nKNOTS BUT AT ANY TIME WINDS COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANCE FORCE.\r\nLISA IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN SOON.\r\n \r\nLISA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED\r\nITS FORWARD SPEED TO 15 KNOTS. LISA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING THE LASTEST HIGH RESOLUTION\r\nQUIKSCAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 36.9N  46.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 39.0N  44.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 42.0N  39.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 44.0N  33.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 46.5N  24.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":50,"Date":"2004-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER NEALY TWO WEEKS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...LISA\r\nREACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE 8TH HURRICANE OF THE 2004 SEASON.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND\r\nTHE EYE FEATURE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nSUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...\r\nLATEST AVAILABLE SSMI SHOW A RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE\r\nAND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE 64 KNOTS AND 987 MB PRESSURE. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...LISA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LISA\r\nIS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN\r\nSOON.\r\n \r\nLISA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 19 KNOTS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THEREFORE\r\n...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL LIKELY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS. LISA IS EXPECTED TO TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 38.4N  45.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 40.5N  42.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 43.5N  37.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 45.5N  29.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":51,"Date":"2004-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PEAKED AT 4.0 T NUMBERS AT 18Z AND HAVE\r\nNOW DECREASED TO 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHERE ARE SOME ELEMENTS PRESENT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE.  ALSO A 21Z\r\nHI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS.  SO THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS.  WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS ALREADY SEEN TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  SO WITH COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAHEAD...LISA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/16.  LISA IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE\r\nMOSTLY EASTWARD BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS.  THE GFS SUGGESTS\r\nA MERGER BETWEEN LISA AND AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH IS PROBABLY\r\nTHE REMNANT OF JEANNE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS SEPARATE SYSTEMS.  IN\r\nEITHER CASE...LISA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN\r\n24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 39.6N  42.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 41.5N  39.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 44.2N  32.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 45.6N  23.8W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 46.5N  13.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":52,"Date":"2004-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004\r\n \r\nIN SOMEWHAT OF A SURPRISE...CONVECTION HAS COOLED AGAIN NEAR THE EYE\r\nOF LISA AND THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS 6 HR AGO. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  LISA IS AGAIN UPGRADED TO A 65 KT\r\nHURRICANE DESPITE BEING OVER 23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED...AS LISA IS\r\nSTARTING TO INTERACT WITH FRONTAL ZONE CLOUDINESS AND THE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FALL BELOW 20C IN\r\nLESS THAN 24 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN THE STORM AND CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT\r\n36 HR.  AFTER THAT...LISA SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  LISA SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS\r\nABSORBED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 40.8N  40.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 43.0N  36.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 44.9N  28.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 46.1N  18.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":53,"Date":"2004-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT LISA HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nCLOUD PATTERN WITH AN EYE FEATURE AND AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW. INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT LISA IS STILL A 65-KNOT\r\nHURRICANE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...MOST RECENT IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nLISA IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 60 DEGREES AT 26 KNOTS. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED\r\nUNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 42.0N  36.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 44.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 45.5N  23.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":54,"Date":"2004-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS BEGUN TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL WITH THE CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH IN FACT IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THIS PROCESS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE AS LISA MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 25 TO 30\r\nKNOTS.  LISA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL TONIGHT. IT\r\nSHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 43.1N  34.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 44.5N  29.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 46.5N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":55,"Date":"2004-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE EAST AND MOST OF THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED.  ALSO WHAT CONVECTION THERE IS LEFT\r\nHAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.  A 21Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS MAX WINDS NEAR\r\n50 KT AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR LESS.  SO THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS REDUCED TO 50 KT.  THE CENTER IS OVER THE 20 DEG SST\r\nISOTHERM OR LESS AND THE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS A WHOPPING 40\r\nKT.  SO LISA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/23.  LISA IS BEING SWEPT ALONG IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES AND WILL LIKELY ACCELERATE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE MIXED SIGNALS ON THE STORMS THERMAL  STRUCTURE.  BOB HARTS\r\nFSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS USING THE GFS AND CANADIAN 12Z MODEL\r\nRUNS ANALYSES A COLD CORE STRUCTURE...WHILE THE UKMET IS WARM CORE\r\nAND THE NOGAPS IS NEUTRAL.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE TRANSITION TO A\r\nCOLD CORE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE WILL BE COMPLETED IN THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nHOURS IF IT IS NOT ALREADY COMPLETED.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 43.9N  31.6W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 44.9N  25.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 46.0N  17.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2004\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A\r\nREASONABLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH STRONG WINDS...48 KT AT A\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL OF 600 FT...NEAR THE CENTER.  WHILE THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS POOR AND HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC...THE CORE\r\nCIRCULATION DICTATES THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES BE INITIATED\r\nAT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WOULD SUPPORT AN\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT...THESE WINDS WERE OBSERVED OVER A VERY\r\nSMALL AREA AND MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/9...WITH THE CENTER FOLLOWING THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF MATTHEW.\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SEPARATE\r\nBAROCLINICALLY FORCED LOW CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS LOW ARE ALREADY APPARENT IN THE\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IF THIS OCCURS...AND MATTHEW SURVIVES AS A\r\nSEPARATE ENTITY...IT COULD TAKE A GENTLY CURVING PATH AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE NEW LOW. THIS IS THE SCENARIO INDICATED BY THE\r\nSIMPLER STEERING MODELS SUCH AS THE BAM FAMILY OF MODELS. THE GFDL\r\nSHOWS A MUCH SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW ONLY THE DEVELOPING\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW...WHICH SPENDS MOST OF THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS OVER\r\nLOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE BAM\r\nGUIDANCE...IN PART BECAUSE THIS GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE MORE\r\nCONSISTENT WITH CURRENT TRENDS...BUT I AM NOT REAL COMFORTABLE\r\nBEING SO FAR AWAY FROM THE NORMALLY GOOD-PERFORMING GLOBAL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS MODERATE SHEAR OVER MATTHEW NOW...AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL INCREASE...AT LEAST OVER THE WESTERN\r\nGULF.  IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS WRONG AND MATTHEW ENDS UP MOVING\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH...IT WOULD LIKELY FIND ITSELF IN AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nUNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  A MORE LEISURELY TRACK ACROSS THE\r\nCENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF WOULD AFFORD MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 24.2N  93.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 24.6N  92.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 25.3N  91.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 26.3N  89.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  87.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  86.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 08 2004\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE CONTINUED TO CHECK MATTHEW AND FOUND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE\r\nCONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ASYMMETRIC AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING BUT BECAUSE MATTHEW DOES NOT\r\nHAVE COMPLETE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS\r\nDETRIMENTAL. AT THIS TIME...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 060 DEGREES OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AT 8 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE\r\nUNCERTAIN. MATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE BETWEEN THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INSIST ON TURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST BUT THEY MAY BE REFLECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nANOTHER LOW OVER TEXAS. I AM NOT VERY CONFORTABLE TO BE AWAY FROM\r\nGLOBAL MODELS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BUT I WOULD RATHER\r\nFOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST EARLY SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 24.7N  93.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  92.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N  90.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 27.8N  89.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 29.5N  87.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 33.6N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-10-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 30 TO 40 KNOTS OF SHEAR\r\nOVER THE STORM AND THE PREVIOUSLY IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE HAS BEEN\r\nSHEARED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE ASSUMED CENTER LOCATION AND HAS\r\nALSO DECREASED IN SIZE AND HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY.  THE WIND SPEED\r\nIS REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS IS MOST GENEROUS.  I WOULD NEVER\r\nGUESS THAT THERE WAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM LOOKING AT THE LATEST\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT I WOULD RATHER NOT KILL THE STORM BASED ON\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AND...\r\nNOT SURPRISINGLY...I AM FORECASTING THAT MATHEW WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS MORNING.  DATA BUOY 42002\r\nREPORTED A WIND OF 320/10 AT 07Z SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE BUOY.  THERE WAS A HINT OF A POORLY DEFINED LOW\r\nCLOUD CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUPPORTS THIS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/08.  A DEEP-LAYER MEAN LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nCUT OFF OVER TEXAS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTHE STORM NORTHWARD AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 25.6N  92.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 26.4N  92.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 28.1N  90.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 30.6N  89.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 32.5N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 35.5N  88.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Matthew","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-10-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMOVED THE CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION AND MATTHEW HAS BECOME AN ELONGATED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS\r\nWITH MOST OF THE WEATHER WITHIN A BAND LOCATED NORTHEAST AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DOWGRADED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WINDS REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH AGAIN IN HEAVY SQUALLS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK\r\nMATTHEW THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE THE STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST...NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE GFDL INSISTS\r\nON INTENSIFYING MATTHEW DESPITE THE SHEAR.\r\n\r\nONCE AGAIN...GLOBAL MODELS HAD THE CORRECT IDEA. MATTHEW IS NOW\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 9 KNOTS...AS INDICATED BY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS DEVELOPING\r\nOVER EXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS\r\nANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS AND THE\r\nCONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH\r\nTHE LOUSIANA COAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE HEAVY\r\nRAINS AND SQUALLS WILL OCCUR WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 26.7N  92.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.0N  91.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  91.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 32.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 34.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-10-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER A PERIOD OF WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nINDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IT IS\r\nONLY A CHANGE OF 5 KNOTS...WHICH IS WITHIN THE NOISE LEVEL OF\r\nESTIMATING INTENSITY...BUT IT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AND A TROPICAL STORM.  LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nREPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 997 MB. SINCE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...I WOULD NOT\r\nBE SURPRISED IF SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING OCCURS AGAIN IN THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. NEVERTHERLESS...MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL\r\nON THE LOUISIANA COAST AS A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED\r\nACCORDINGLY. IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE WINDS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY IN\r\nGUSTS DURING HEAVY SQUALLS.\r\n\r\nGIVING THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nAROUND THE EASTERN CIRCULATION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW OVER\r\nEXTREME WESTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS\r\nANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 27.3N  91.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 29.1N  91.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 31.5N  90.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 33.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 36.0N  91.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-10-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2004\r\n \r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS AGAIN STRIPPED MATTHEW OF ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THIS EVENING.  NEVERTHELESS...THERE ARE AMPLE SHIP\r\nREPORTS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR NOW.  WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCURRENTLY SEPARATING FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER...IT WILL BE\r\nDIFFICULT FOR MATTHEW TO STRENGTHEN APPRECIABLY PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN MATTHEW WILL PROBABLY\r\nMAKE LANDFALL AS A DEPRESSION.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM MATTHEW\r\nCONTINUES TO BE COASTAL SURGE AND INLAND RAIN FLOODING.\r\n\r\nDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY...WHILE THERE WAS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE...MATTHEW TURNED EASTWARD IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A DEEPER LAYER WESTERLY STEERING FLOW.  NOW THAT MATTHEW IS ONLY\r\nA LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THE EASTWARD MOTION HAS STOPPED...AND OVER\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS MATTHEW HAS MOVED ESSENTIALLY NORTHWARD. \r\nAS CONVECTION COMES AND GOES THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL JUMPS TO THE\r\nLEFT AND STEPS TO THE RIGHT...BUT SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN STRONG...THE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION SHOULD PREVAIL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND UKMET GUIDANCE...\r\nAND A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE EASTWARD JOG\r\nLATE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 27.7N  91.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 29.0N  90.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.9N  90.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 33.3N  90.6W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 35.5N  91.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-10-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 49 KNOTS AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nABOUT 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 05Z AND 1001 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE.  THE SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS PROBABLY NEAR 40 KNOTS AT\r\nTHAT TIME.  MORE RECENTLY...THE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED\r\nAND SO HAS THE CONVECTION OF WHICH THERE IS VERY LITTLE...SO THE\r\n09Z WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KNOTS.  WITH 40 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LITTLE CHANGE...PERHAPS\r\nWEAKENING...IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/08.  A MOSTLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER MEAN\r\nLOW OVER TEXAS AND THE CENTER SHOULD REACH THE COAST IN JUST A FEW\r\nMORE HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 28.5N  91.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 30.1N  90.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 32.4N  90.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 34.4N  91.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 35.7N  92.7W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Matthew","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-10-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED\r\nCENTER IS INLAND...AND THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THEREFORE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS\r\nDISCONTINUED.  THE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM MATTHEW IS LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM WEST TO EAST...MAKING THE CENTER\r\nSOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD...010/9.  MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND\r\nUNDER WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 29.9N  90.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 31.4N  90.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 33.4N  90.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 34.9N  90.7W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 36.0N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-10-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS...END IN 5 INSTEAD OF 1...\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED\r\nAND IS BEING IDENTIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS BASED ON\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS BEING LOCATED FAR FROM THE CENTER AS SHOWN ON A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT AND ALSO ON THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL COLD LOW OVER THE SURFACE SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT\r\n40 KNOTS BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT.  THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCENTER AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...NICOLE COULD TRANSITION INTO A\r\nTROPICAL SYSTEM.  THE FORECAST IS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR A\r\nDAY OR TWO UNTIL THE STORM MERGES WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/13,  THE FORECAST TRACK IS MOSTLY\r\nNORTHWARD FOR 72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES FROM\r\nNORTH AMERICA TO THE ATLANTIC AND CUTS OFF.  THE GFS SHOWS NICOLE\r\nMERGING WITH THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AT\r\n48 HOURS.  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWING THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 31.8N  66.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 33.5N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 36.0N  65.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  63.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 41.5N  63.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 43.5N  63.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 49.0N  59.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 52.0N  50.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-10-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF NICOLE.  HOWEVER THIS\r\nCONVECTION IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW AND WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER...SO THERE IS LITTLE INDICATION THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  A 10Z HIRES QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nCONTAINED 40 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THESE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NICOLE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 36\r\nHOURS...THE GFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED BY\r\nA BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS NICOLE WILL BE STEERED\r\nPRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS SHOWN IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO COMBINE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...CONU...AND IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 32.2N  66.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 34.0N  66.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 36.6N  65.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 39.5N  64.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 41.1N  64.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  62.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-10-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004\r\n\r\nAMSU DATA FROM NOAA SATELLITES SUGGEST THAT NICOLE MAY HAVE\r\nDEVELOPED A SLIGHT MID-LEVEL WARM CORE.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS QUITE SHALLOW AND WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...WITH\r\nLITTLE EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDING.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS\r\nMAINTAINED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT\r\nGIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND CYCLONIC ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...ONLY SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE.  IN A FEW DAYS NICOLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MERGE WITH...AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY...A STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER A STRONG 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE\r\nMOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST EARLY ON MONDAY SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nPULL NICOLE NORTHWARD SOON.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME\r\nNORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION...FOLLOWED BY A CURVE\r\nTO THE LEFT WITH DECELERATION AS THE NICOLE BEGINS TO INTERACT AND\r\nMERGE WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS REASONING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 32.0N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 34.3N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  65.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 41.0N  65.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 41.5N  66.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-10-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004\r\n \r\nWHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...NICOLE REMAINS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE\r\nREPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL\r\nEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...AS THAT BAND PASSED OVER\r\nBERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT CONTAINED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37-38\r\nKT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT. THEREFORE...AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK TO\r\nTHE WEST AND EXPANDED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE BERMUDA OBSERVATIONS\r\nAND A 10/2244Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/13. NICOLE IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nTHAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOUTHEASTWARD TO SEVERAL\r\nHUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING\r\nNORTHWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN EVEN DEEPER LOW/TROUGH FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP NEAR THE CAPE COD AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THIS DEVELOPING\r\nFLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACT TO LIFT NICOLE NORTHWARD BY 12-18 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN POSSIBLY HOOK THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE\r\nUPPER-LOW MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE NICOLE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN\r\n24-36H. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nEVOLVING SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST EAST OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nNICOLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS...\r\nIF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN AS THE\r\nUPPER-LOW BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE RELATIVELY WARMER\r\nLOWER LAYERS OF THE NICOLE CIRCULATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS JUST EAST\r\nOF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nREMAINS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE WARM GULFSTREAM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 33.1N  65.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 36.4N  63.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 40.3N  63.4W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 42.3N  63.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 42.3N  65.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-10-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004\r\n \r\nNICOLE HAS TRIED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...AS A\r\nPERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER WHILE AMSU OVERPASSES FROM SUNDAY EVENING INDICATED A WARM\r\nCORE MIGHT BE PRESENT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF CONVECTION\r\nTRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OR OF ANY ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. \r\nINDEED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WESTERLY JET STREAK IS\r\nAPPROACHING THE CENTER...WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nPATTERN OF A SYSTEM COMPLETING TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHUS...NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH 40 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IS\r\nOCCURRING NEAR SABLE ISLAND...WHERE THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO\r\n1001 MB AS OF 08Z.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL MERGE NICOLE WITH THIS LOW\r\nIN 24 HR OR LESS...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS DIFFER ON WHICH CYCLONE\r\nWOULD BE DOMINANT DURING THE MERGER.  THE END RESULT SHOULD BE THE\r\nSAME...A RATHER VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nNICOLE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING EVEN WHILE LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...FOLLOWED BY MERGER WITH THE LARGER LOW\r\nAFTER 24 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NICOLE MAY NOT SURVIVE FOR\r\nEVEN 24 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/16.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT NICOLE\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE MERGER WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nOCCURS...AND THIS IS FOLLOWED IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  IF NICOLE\r\nMOVES FASTER OR LASTS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT MAY DO A\r\nLEFT HOOK AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW BEFORE THE MERGER\r\nIS COMPLETE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 34.9N  63.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 38.4N  62.8W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 41.5N  63.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-10-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004\r\n...CORRECTED TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL STORM...\r\nNICOLE IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...STILL\r\nINDICATE SUBTROPICAL STATUS.  A REPORT FROM THE SHIP KSDF...TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF 45 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nAPPROACHING A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEREFORE WILL BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL VERY SOON.  NICOLE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR MERGE\r\nWITH...A BAROCLINIC CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nLATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NICOLE COULD MAINTAIN\r\nITS IDENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A FEW DAYS.  SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION.  HOWEVER MOST TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE LEFT FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT\r\n10Z.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 36.0N  61.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 39.4N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 41.0N  63.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 42.0N  63.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 48.0N  59.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-10-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2004\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT COMBINES WITH A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE CYCLONE.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM BAROCLINIC\r\nENERGY SOURCES MAY OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME MORE ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD\r\nSPEED WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...ALONG WITH A TURN TO THE LEFT.  LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN AS THE CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERS A FASTER WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NICOLE.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER\r\nFZNT01 KWBC.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 40.0N  61.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 42.0N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 43.5N  61.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 45.0N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 48.0N  59.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-11-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME\r\nMORE CONSOLIDATED.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND SHIP\r\nREPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL\r\nSOMEWHAT BROAD.  HOWEVER MICROWAVE DATA AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES\r\nFROM THE FSU/PSU WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE.\r\nTHUS THE CYCLONE HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO JUSTIFY THE\r\nISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.  THE STORM IS\r\nOVER RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AROUND 4 KT.  DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION TO DEVELOP SOON.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS AND\r\nSOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 31.8N  51.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.2N  50.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 31.5N  49.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  48.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 31.0N  46.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 31.0N  45.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N  43.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-12-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004\r\n \r\nOTTO IS MAINTAINING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN QUADRANT OF A MOSTLY-EXPOSED CIRCULATION. RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WINDS ARE DIMINISHING\r\nAND THE WIND STRUCTURE IS BECOMING MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE A\r\nUNANIMOUS 35 KT BUT I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR\r\nTHE TIME BEING. OTTO REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS...AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nREACH THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...OTTO DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. OTTO IS\r\nLIKELY TO LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND DEGENERATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW WELL BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nOTTO HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 135/2.  WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL\r\nNORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC APPROACHING OTTO...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN TO NUDGE OTTO ON AN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THEIR EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS WELL NORTH OF\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 31.6N  50.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 31.4N  50.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 31.0N  49.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 29.5N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 28.5N  46.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 27.5N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-12-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS A SLOW\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERELIES\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND TO THIS WITH A SLOW\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...EXCEPT THE UKMET\r\nWHICH SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK\r\nFORECAST BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT THERE IS IS CONFINED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER THERE IS A 06Z SHIP REPORT OF 50 KT\r\nAND 995.1 MB ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE SHIP WIND\r\nAPPEARS TOO HIGH AND THE PRESSURE TOO LOW...SO THE THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS INCREASED TO A COMPROMISE 45 KT.  THE SAME TROUGH REFERRED\r\nTO ABOVE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE STORM AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT\r\nIN 48 HOURS AND OVER 40 KT BY 96 HOURS.  FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND THE PREVIOUS ADVIORY...THE FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING AFTER 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 31.9N  50.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 31.8N  50.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 31.0N  50.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 30.0N  49.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 29.1N  48.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N  46.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNAT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 26.5N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-12-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A\r\nSMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY\r\nWARMER WATERS...WESTERLY SHEAR....ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA...IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  OTTO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO REMNANT LOW\r\nSTATUS...AND IT MAY DO SO SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD...135/3.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT OTTO SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD\r\nSTEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...AND IS ABOUT IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 31.4N  50.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 30.8N  49.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  49.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 29.2N  48.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 28.5N  47.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 27.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 25.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-12-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004\r\n\r\nOTTO IS HANGING ON AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MEAGER AND IS CONFINED TO THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  BECAUSE THE STORM IS NEAR THE\r\nAXIS OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NOT TOO STRONG AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL\r\nOVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD BRING\r\nABOUT A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  SO...EVEN\r\nTHOUGH OTTO IS MOVING TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DUE TO A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...145/5.  GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW FOR OTTO...TO\r\nTHE EAST OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL\r\nSUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 30.7N  49.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 30.0N  49.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 29.2N  48.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 28.3N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.4N  47.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-12-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED DEC 01 2004\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...A 01/2158Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT OTTO HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD CONTAINING SEVERAL 30-35 KT UN-FLAGGED WINDS.\r\nDRIFTING BUOY 44623 JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF\r\n997.5 MB AT 00Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM\r\nTAFB AND THE 35-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS. HOWEVER...THE LOWER CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 150/06.  THE LATEST\r\nNHC MODEL SUITE IS QUITE DIVERGENT. THE UKMET IS THE LEFTMOST MODEL\r\nAND TAKES OTTO DUE EAST WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE RIGHTMOST OF\r\nALL THE MODELS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DUE SOUTH. HOWEVER...\r\nALL THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW FORWARD SPEED. AS THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ZONAL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\n...WEAK 500 MB RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR NORTH OF OTTO. THIS\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL SOUTHEAST TO\r\nSOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST\r\nNORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nHELP KEEP THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND HELP TO DRAG IT IN A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE 850-200 MB SHEAR TO 35 KT BY\r\n36H AND DISSIPATES OTTO BY 48-60H. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTTO\r\nORIGINATED FROM A COLD-CORE LOW AND LIKELY DOES NOT EXTEND TO THE\r\n200 MB LEVEL...THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES MAY BE EXCESSIVE..GIVEN THAT\r\nTHE 300 MB WIND ACROSS OTTO IS EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 KT LESS THAN\r\nAT THE 200 MB LEVEL. SINCE OTTO IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE OVER\r\nGRADUALLY WARMER WATER...THE INTENSITY WAS HELD HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 30.2N  49.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 29.6N  49.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 28.8N  48.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 27.8N  47.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.0N  47.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 25.5N  46.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 24.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-12-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU DEC 02 2004\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE\r\nAND VERTICAL DEPTH NEAR THE CENTER AND IS NOW CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...DRIFTING BUOY 44623 NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF OTTO INDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND WAS\r\n995.7 MB AT 05Z. BASED ON THE LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE AND A DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 180/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS\r\nDIVERGENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND IS IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT ON A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY MOTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE UKMET MODEL REMAINS THE LEFTMOST MODEL AND\r\nTAKES OTTO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE GFDL MODEL IS NOW THE\r\nRIGHTMOST MODEL AND MOVES OTTO SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS\r\nAGREE ON WEAK RIDGING CONTINUING TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF OTTO...\r\nWHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE LOSING LATITUDE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONU AND GUNS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT COUPLED WITH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OTTO...EVEN THOUGH CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS\r\nACTUALLY EXPANDED TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO DRY OUT\r\nEVEN MORE. AS SUCH...OTTO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER 25-26C SST WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 29.8N  49.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  49.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 27.9N  49.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 26.8N  48.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 25.9N  48.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 24.7N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Otto","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-12-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU DEC 02 2004\r\n\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS JUST AFTER 09Z\r\nINDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION HAVE NOW DROPPED\r\nBELOW GALE FORCE.  THE SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...SO OTTO IS DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM.  STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD PREVENT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF SOUTH OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  A SLOW AND GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE OTTO'S REMNANTS CONTINUE TO SPIN\r\nDOWN.  BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OTTO.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANT LOW OF OTTO CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY\r\nTHE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 28.8N  50.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 27.8N  50.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 26.7N  50.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  50.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 24.5N  50.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  50.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-05-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI MAY 21 2004\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SOME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS EVENING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n1.5/2.0/2.0 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09.  THE TRACK MODELS SHOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING CURRENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A RATHER SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nFOR 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS\r\nLITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THE SHIP MODEL BRINGS THE\r\nWIND SPEED TO MAXIMUM VALUE OF 42 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND FORECAST IS\r\nA MODEST INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 14.7N 108.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.4N 109.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N 110.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.6N 111.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.1N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-05-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE PRIMARILY WITHIN A\r\nCURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.\r\nBECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW...THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE TO REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT\r\nENCOUNTERS STABLE AIR AND COOL WATERS. WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 37 KNOTS ONLY AND IN FACT...\r\nBOTH GFDL AND UK MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS.\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE IN A DAY OR TWO SO...A\r\nVERY SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE IS\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME\r\nERRATIC BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 15.3N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.8N 109.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 110.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.0N 111.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W    20 KT REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.6N 112.1W    20 KT REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-05-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTED TWO HOOKING\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOW WEAKENING OVER THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nSINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  LATER...COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED STABILITY SHOULD BRING\r\nABOUT WEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE...AND THE BEST GUESS FOR INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 300/8.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...RESULTING\r\nIN A COLLAPSE OF THE STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOTION IN THE\r\nSECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE SLIGHTLY EAST OF MY TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM IS NEAR 18N LATITUDE.  THUS IF AGATHA\r\nTAKES A MORE NORTHWARD COURSE THAN EXPECTED...IT WOULD PROBABLY\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 15.9N 109.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.6N 110.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.2N 110.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 111.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-05-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...A GRADUAL INCREASE\r\nIN ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.\r\nAGATHA HAS A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERE IS STILL\r\nSOME OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE COOLER WATERS\r\nAND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS BEGIN TO EXERT AN INFLUENCE. \r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...NECESSITATING SOME NORTHWARD\r\nRELOCATION FOR THIS PACKAGE.  ALSO...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES TO\r\nBE MORE CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.  THAT GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO INDICATE A COLLAPSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW BY\r\nAROUND 48 HOURS.  SINCE AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AROUND\r\nTHAT TIME...AND RESPONDING MAINLY TO LOW/MID-LEVEL STEERING...THE\r\nFORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 16.9N 109.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N 110.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.3N 110.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 111.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.2N 111.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-05-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004\r\n\r\nA BURSTING CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nT NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC ARE THE BASIS FOR\r\nINCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 45 KNOTS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nMUCH STRENGTHENING SO THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 50\r\nKNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER\r\nAS COOLER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/06.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS UNDER WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BECOMING STATIONARY AFTER 72 HOURS AND IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO AGREE\r\nMORE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 17.4N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.1N 110.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 110.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.2N 110.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.3N 110.8W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-05-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AGATHA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED FURTHER. \r\nIN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING. \r\nMOREOVER...IR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW- OR\r\nMID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A COMPONENT OF MOTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. \r\nAGATHA MAY ALREADY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH... CONSEQUENTLY\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 45 KT FOR A WHILE\r\nAND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE RAPID WEAKENING...WITH STABLE AIR\r\nBEING A SIGNIFICANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE STORM'S DEMISE.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE BELOW STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND\r\nDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 60 HOURS.  AGATHA COULD BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A GRADUAL SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED.  THE STEERING CURRENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nWEAKENING...SO VERY LITTLE MOTION IS FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE EAST TO BE CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODEL TRACKS. \r\nTHE GFDN HAS BEEN EXCLUDED SINCE IT SHOWS AN UNREALISTIC SOUTHWARD\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 17.8N 110.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 110.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.3N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 19.7N 110.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 110.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-05-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004\r\n \r\nAGATHA IS BEGINNING TO DECAY.  THE CENTRAL RING OF CONVECTION\r\nPRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY 12 HOURS AGO HAS BROKEN UP.  \r\nNOTWITHSTANDING THE RECENT FLARE-UP IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS DECREASING.  USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS...WHICH IS\r\nUSUALLY A MORE ACCURATE INDICATOR THAN THE CI NUMBER FOR WEAKENING\r\nSYSTEMS...YIELDS AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT\r\n01Z SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIUS OF 34 KT WINDS IS ALSO DECREASING. \r\nUNFORTUNATELY THE MOST RECENT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/5.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHOURS.  THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER PORTION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUING\r\nNORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF\r\nAGATHA...WITH THE LOW LEVEL REMNANTS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET MAINTAIN A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT SYSTEM\r\nON A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS.  SINCE THE CYCLONE ALREADY\r\nAPPEARS TO BE SHEARING OFF A BIT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN THE\r\nDIRECTION OF THE GFS AND THE SHALLOW BAM BUT WITH A SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED.\r\n \r\nAGATHA IS OVER 26C SSTS AND HEADED...ALBEIT SLOWLY...FOR COOLER\r\nWATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS THEREFORE\r\nEXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BUT\r\nIS STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 18.1N 110.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.9N 110.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 110.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 19.8N 110.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-05-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF AGATHA IS NOT APPARENT IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS\r\nSLOWED OR EVEN STALLED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/3. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND SHAPELESS...AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED\r\nLITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS 40 KT.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME RATHER DIVERSE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NOGAPS\r\nTURNS AGATHA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHILE THE\r\nGFS TRACK IS NORTH THEN NORTHWESTWARD.  BOTH THE UKMET AND GFDL\r\nTAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD.  GIVEN THE SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL DEPEND TO SOME EXTENT ON HOW\r\nMUCH DEEP CONVECTION AND VERTICAL CONTINUITY AGATHA CAN MAINTAIN. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nAGATHA IS OVER 26C SSTS AND HEADED...ALBEIT SLOWLY...FOR COOLER\r\nWATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS THEREFORE\r\nEXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 18.3N 110.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.8N 110.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 21.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-05-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING WHILE BEING\r\nSHEARED TO THE EAST.  AGATHA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT DEPRESSION\r\nBASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN UNDER SHEARING CONDITIONS AND OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/04 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF\r\nMOTION.  THE GUIDANCE IS SPLIT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOWING A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION...THE GFS HAS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK...AND THE NOGAPS TRACK IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  WHAT\r\nTHEY ALL HAVE IN COMMON IS A VERY SLOW MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE ABOVE MODELS BY BECOMING\r\nSTATIONARY IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 18.6N 110.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-05-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON MAY 24 2004\r\n\r\nA FEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION. THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE SOME MORE INTERMITTENT\r\nAND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nAS IT MOVES THROUGH A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 25 DEG C.\r\n\r\nAGATHA'S HEADING HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND THE MOTION IS\r\nNOW AROUND 315/05.  THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERSITY IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED.  AS OF THE\r\nMOMENT...THE CYCLONE IS NOT FOLLOWING THE NORTHWARD TRACK INDICATED\r\nBY THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS.  PERHAPS THERE IS A LITTLE\r\nMORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAN DESCRIBED BY THESE\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE WEST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...HOWEVER\r\nLITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF THE DISSIPATING SYSTEM IS FORECAST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 19.0N 111.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.4N 111.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.7N 112.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.9N 112.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-05-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON MAY 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AGATHA AT THE PRESENT\r\nTIME. THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE SOME INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION BUT IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 25 DEG C. DEGENERATION TO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW IS LIKELY LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REQUIRES A RELOCATION OF AGATHA EAST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 330/3. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERSITY IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR LITTLE\r\nOVERALL MOTION OF THE DISSIPATING SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 111.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 20.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-05-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON MAY 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nAGATHA...AND A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 25 KT.  AGATHA IS\r\nDEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDISCONTINUED THIS EVENING.  \r\n\r\nAGATHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  STEERING\r\nCURRENTS REMAIN ILL DEFINED AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nWHILE THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 18.8N 111.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 19.0N 111.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-05-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON MAY 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION AND AGATHA IS A WEAK SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY\r\nFOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE COMPLETELY DISSIPATING.  THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 18.8N 110.7W    20 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 18.8N 110.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 110.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 110.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 111.0W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-07-02 16:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n9 AM PDT FRI JUL 02 2004\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE\r\nEASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY MOVING OVER COOL WATERS SO\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. IN FACT...THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.\r\nA TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1600Z 16.5N 119.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.5N 123.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-07-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 25 KNOTS BUT DO NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER GUSTS\r\nIN CONVECTIVE CELLS. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nINCREASINGLY COOL WATERS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE A SHORT EVENT AND SHOULD BECOME A REMANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR LESS.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...GFDL\r\nAND GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. AS THE DEPRESSION\r\nWEAKENS...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL\r\nFLOW.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE\r\nDEPRESSION SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS AREA IS CURRENTLY BEING STUDIED\r\nEXTENSIVELY BY THE NORTH AMERICAN MOONSOON EXPERIMENT....KNOWN AS\r\nNAME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 17.2N 120.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.5N 121.8W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-07-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION REMAINS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS KEPT AT 25 KNOTS.  WITH COOLER WATER AHEAD...ALL GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS FORECAST GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY LOWER\r\nLEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 17.3N 121.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N 122.8W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 17.5N 124.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 17.4N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-07-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 03 2004\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IS CURRENTLY GENERATING SMALL BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  SHIP PCER HAS BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...REPORTING WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WITH A LOWEST REPORTED\r\nPRESSURE OF 1009.7 MB.  THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT\r\nSSM/I OVERPASS.  BASED ON ALL THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/10.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING SHOULD MOVE THE\r\nSYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN FROM HERE ON.  SOME BURSTS OF CONVECTION COULD CONTINUE FOR\r\nANOTHER 12-24 HR...AFTER WHICH THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE BEFORE\r\n72 HR...SO THE THE CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS IN\r\nHANGING ON TO IT THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 17.4N 122.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.4N 128.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-07-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 03 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT THE DEPRESSION. THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. IT SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AND THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 17.8N 123.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N 124.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-07-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 03 2004\r\n \r\n...CORRECTION TO HIGH SEAS FORECAST AWIPS AND WMO HEADERS...\r\n\r\nAS ANTICIPATED...THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL\r\nOF LOW CLOUDS WITH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS.  THE REMNANT LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER COOL WATERS...PRODUCING A FEW\r\nINTERMITTENT SHOWERS. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION \r\nCAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 17.9N 124.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-07-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 12 2004\r\n \r\nA LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS\r\nDEVELOPED CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER THIS MORNING\r\nAND THIS SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT IS OBSCURED BY\r\nTHE CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nWITH THE SUGGESTION OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER DAY FOUR.  THIS\r\nMOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.  THE GFS AND OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INTRODUCE SOME\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK BY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONES BOTH EAST\r\nAND WEST OF THIS DEPRESSION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERACTION.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SSTS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES\r\nCENTIGRADE.  THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS AT 49 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL TAKES THE WIND TO 55 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR\r\nTHE WIND TO PEAK AT 50 KNOTS AT 36 AND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 14.8N 105.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 24.0N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N 124.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-07-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT IS\r\nOBSCURED BY CLOUDS AND IS PERHAPS BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS INDICATED BY\r\n96 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY BY\r\nSHOWING AN INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS CYCLONE TO THE WEST CURRENTLY DOES\r\nNOT APPEAR TO EXIST.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SSTS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES\r\nCENTIGRADE.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING TO\r\nNEAR 50 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 15.8N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.9N 108.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.7N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 20.2N 113.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 25.0N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-07-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE\r\nWELL-DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE 2.5 WHICH SUPPORTS 35\r\nKT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTHE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON.  CONTINUED\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LA\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE\r\nTIME OVER WARM WATERS...WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  BLAS IS LIKELY TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...310/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  THE MAIN ISSUE REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS' DEPICTION OF ANOTHER VORTEX TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BLAS. \r\nTHIS SECONDARY VORTEX...IF IT EXISTS...APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN\r\nTHE MODELS' INITIALIZATION.  IF THAT IS TRUE THEN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MAY BE INFLUENCED BY AN ARTIFICIAL FUJIWHARA-TYPE\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE SECONDARY VORTEX.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...CLOSER TO THE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL EXPECTATION.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT BLAS IS A\r\nLARGER-THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE 120 N MI WIND RADII MAY\r\nBE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 16.8N 108.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.6N 112.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 22.0N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-07-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004\r\n \r\nBLAS IS STRENGTHENING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z CONTAINED 50 KT\r\nVECTORS BELIEVED TO BE RELIABLE...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST\r\nRECENT 3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS 50 KT.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER AND DECREASING\r\nELSEWHERE.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD FAVOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING BLAS TO\r\nJUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT BLAS\r\nWILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS\r\nAND BEGINS TO DECAY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14.  THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE\r\nIS CURRENTLY THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOME ON THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SECOND CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BLAS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE 00Z UKMET STILL FAVORS THIS SCENARIO AND CONSEQUENTLY IS MUCH\r\nSLOWER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  CONSIDERING THAT\r\nTHE GUIDANCE GENERALLY MAY STILL BE TOO STRONG WITH THE SECOND\r\nSYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GUNA DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...AND IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON THE 01Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS...ALTHOUGH THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTION NOTED\r\nIN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE RADII MAY SOON BEGIN\r\nTO CONTRACT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 17.5N 109.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.9N 111.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 20.4N 113.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 21.4N 116.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N 121.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 23.5N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 23.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-07-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004\r\n \r\nBLAS IS A HEALTHY TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...SHOWING A LARGE\r\nCONVECTIVE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND GOOD OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT\r\nCENTER MAY BE BETTER INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST THAN AT\r\nTHE TIME OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO 50 KT MAY BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/14...AS THE VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES HINT THAT THE STORM MAY BE MOVING FASTER.  BLAS IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE BLAS MOVES OVER COLDER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENS.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD TURN\r\nTHE CYCLONE WESTWARD AS LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT\r\nDURING THE WEAKENING.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO BACK\r\nOFF ON A FORECAST OF A SECOND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING SOUTHWEST OF\r\nBLAS...AND THOSE MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR DEVELOPMENT TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF BLAS...AND THUS MOVES THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD AND\r\nSLOWER.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...WHICH IS MORE OF LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GFS...\r\nNOGAPS...AND GFDL.\r\n\r\nBLAS HAS AT THE MOST ABOUT 12-18 HR BEFORE IT REACHES SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C.  EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS IN A\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...IT SHOULD REACH PEAK\r\nINTENSITY IN ABOUT 12 HR THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER.  BLAS IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 120\r\nHR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT BLAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES THE COLDER WATER...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE CENTER OF BLAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...\r\nRAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER COULD AFFECT\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA STARTING LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 18.4N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 112.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 20.9N 115.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 21.8N 117.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 22.4N 118.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 23.5N 126.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 23.5N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-07-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING HEALTHY THIS MORNING...BLAS NOW APPEARS TO BE FEELING\r\nTHE EFFECTS OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CONVECTIVE\r\nOVERCAST SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LOOSE BANDING\r\nPATTERN...AND THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/17...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT\r\nBE A LITTLE FASTER.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BLAS SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12-24 HR ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN DECELERATE AND TURN MORE WESTWARD AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD AND SLOWER MOTION.  SINCE THIS MODEL OVER-INITIALIZES THE\r\nDISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF BLAS...IT IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR THIS\r\nFORECAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE MAINLY TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE FASTER THAN EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS BROUGHT BLAS TO\r\n26C AND COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nSCHEDULE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  BLAS IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nDEPRESSION IN 48 HR AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR...WITH THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nAN AUTOMATED STATION NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BEEN REPORTING 30-35 KT\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS AT AN ELEVATION OF 225 M.  WHILE THE MAIN CORE OF\r\nWIND ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS IS FORECAST TO STAY OFFSHORE...SQUALLS\r\nWITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF SOUTHEN BAJA CALIFORNIA THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nTONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 20.1N 112.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 21.4N 114.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N 116.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 23.3N 118.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 23.7N 120.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-07-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 13 2004\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS WANING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT...IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nCALLED FOR AS BLAS MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. \r\nTYPICALLY...A CYCLONE WITH A LARGE CIRCULATION SUCH AS BLAS TAKES\r\nMORE TIME THAN USUAL TO SPIN DOWN.  HOWEVER IN 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-22 DEG C SSTS...SO BLAS IS NOT LIKELY TO\r\nBE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHE UNUSUALLY FAST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES...310/18.  THE\r\nSTORM IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A\r\nLARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH\r\nSOME SLOWING OF THE STEERING WINDS AS BLAS NEARS THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING...THE OUTER BANDS OF BLAS\r\nCOULD STILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 21.2N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 23.2N 118.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 24.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-07-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2004\r\n \r\nBLAS IS SLOWLY WINDING DOWN OVER 24C WATER AND THERE IS CURRENTLY\r\nVERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT FROM THE THREE AGENCIES.  SHIP\r\nELYS4 AT 06Z REPORTED 35 KT ABOUT 100 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z SUGGESTS THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT.  A\r\nPAIR OF SHIP REPORTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE\r\nCLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER\r\nIN THE LARGE-SCALE BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nALTHOUGH STEADY WEAKENING IS CALLED FOR AS BLAS MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW TO\r\nDISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF BLAS APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED SOMEWHAT...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/16.  THE STORM IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nREGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH\r\nADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE STEERING WINDS AS BLAS NEARS THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  A MORE WESTWARD STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADEWIND FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING...THE OUTER BANDS OF BLAS\r\nCOULD STILL BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 21.9N 115.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 23.9N 119.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 24.4N 121.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 25.0N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 25.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-07-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 14 2004\r\n\r\nBLAS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  ONLY MINIMAL CONVECTION REMAINS WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE...MAINLY IN SMALL PATCHES NEAR THE CENTER AND IN AN OUTER\r\nBAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SEVERAL\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE OVERPASSES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD\r\nPROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/15.  BLAS IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nHEADING FOR A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  IF BLAS WAS A STRONG HURRICANE OVER WARM WATER...IT WOULD\r\nTRY TO RECURVE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  SINCE IT IS INSTEAD WEAKENING\r\nOVER COLD WATER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY DECELERATION\r\nAND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS BLAS WEAKENS AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING\r\nMECHANISM.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND\r\nBASED ON THEM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST \r\n\r\nBLAS IS NOW OVER 23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE WATERS GET\r\nEVEN COLDER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD THUS\r\nWEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR...IF NOT SOONER.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THE LOW COULD SURVIVE THROUGH ABOUT 96 HR...AND THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 22.4N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 23.4N 119.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 24.0N 121.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 24.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 24.8N 124.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 25.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 25.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2004\r\n \r\nBLAS IS NOW A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED\r\nPATCHES OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND IN AN OUTER BAND\r\nWELL TO THE EAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON\r\nEXTRAPOLATION OF A 1320Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND A 1441Z TRMM\r\nOVERPASS...ALONG WITH 25 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  BLAS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...\r\nBECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN 12-24 HR AND COMPLETELY\r\nDISSIPATING BY 96 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/12.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nWITH FURTHER DECELERATION IS LIKELY BEFORE BLAS DISSIPATES...AS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE.\r\n\r\nA 12 FT SEAS RADII WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 22.6N 118.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 23.1N 120.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 23.6N 122.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 23.9N 124.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N 125.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 24.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2004\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 22 DEG C AND CONSISTS OF A\r\nLARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  BLAS IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER ON FOR A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 12 KT...AND A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. \r\nTHIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NOGAPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BLAS.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 23.1N 119.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 23.6N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 24.0N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-07-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUL 18 2004\r\n\r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE UPGRADE IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 30 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMI-CIRCLE.  THE SATELLITE METEOROLOGISTS ALSO NOTED THE STRONG\r\nOUTFLOW TOWARD THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHIS HIGH.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/09.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE MOVES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHILE THE STATISTICAL AND\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LOW SHEER ENVIRONMENT AND IS OVER\r\nWARM SSTS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM TO A 60 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW\r\nSTRATO-CUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THIS AIR WILL\r\nBE ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 14.4N 113.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 115.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.7N 119.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 14.8N 121.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N 127.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 15.1N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 15.2N 136.9W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-07-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 19 2004\r\n\r\nLATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT. \r\nNON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS ON A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAGO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.  THEREFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS KEPT AT DEPRESSION STATUS.  DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE DEPRESSION HAD BEEN RATHER MEAGER...BUT RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE OF CONVECTION OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nPOSITION.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR AT LEAST 72 HOURS.  MITIGATING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING COULD\r\nBE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR\r\nMASS...AS IMPLIED BY THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD ENVIRONMENT. \r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...I.E. THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW LITTLE\r\nOR NO STRENGTHENING...BUT OF COURSE THESE MODELS HAVE LIMITED SKILL\r\nIN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION... AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS A\r\nLITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD\r\nREMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN SHOWN BY THE LATEST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 14.5N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 14.9N 118.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.1N 120.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 15.3N 122.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 15.7N 126.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-07-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 19 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO GOOD CONSENSUS ABOUT THE LOCATION OR INTENSITY OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION THIS MORNING FROM THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES. \r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 1.0 TO 2.5...AND THE LOCATIONS VARY BY\r\nABOUT 90 MILES.  GIVEN THIS...AND WITH FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES JUST\r\nSTARTING TO COME IN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND MOTION LARGELY\r\nFOLLOW CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS...SO THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE REACHED STORM STRENGTH. \r\nHOWEVER...I PREFER TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE UPGRADING THE\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nOVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST 72\r\nHOURS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS IN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nIS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE\r\nSTATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 55 KT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. \r\n \r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD\r\nREMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...RESULTING IN A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BOTH THE NOGAPS AND GFNI SHOW A SLOWER AND\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION BUT THE NOGAPS AT LEAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO\r\nHAVE THE CYCLONE INITIALIZED WELL.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 14.5N 115.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 14.7N 117.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 15.1N 119.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 123.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 127.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-07-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 19 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS CONFIRMED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.0...AND THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS.  ALTHOUGH CELIA REMAINS\r\nA RATHER SMALL CYCLONE...IT IS DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING CELIA TO\r\nNEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE STABLE AIR MASS INTO WHICH CELIA IS\r\nHEADED...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LESS\r\nAGGRESSIVE.  SSTS WILL BE DECREASING UNDER THE CYCLONE AFTER 48\r\nHOURS AND SO A SLOW DECAY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS APPEARED TO SLOW SOMEWHAT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 280/8.  CELIA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...BUT ENOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFNI...MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL\r\nON THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 15.0N 116.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.8N 119.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N 121.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 127.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 136.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-07-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 19 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AIR FORCE GLOBAL ARE\r\nT3.5...T3.0...T3.0 RESPECTIVELY WITH SAB LEANING TOWARD A 3.5. \r\nBASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50\r\nKTS.  CELIA IS A SMALL CYCLONE AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS\r\nBEEN REDUCED TO 20 NMI FROM 30 NMI BASED UPON SATELLITE\r\nMEASUREMENTS.  THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES IN ALL QUADRANTS.  \r\nNOW...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE QUICKLY BRING BRING CELIA TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE STABLE AIR MASS INTO WHICH CELIA IS\r\nHEADED...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LESS\r\nAGGRESSIVE.  SSTS WILL BE DECREASING UNDER THE CYCLONE AFTER 48\r\nHOURS AND SO A SLOW DECAY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TO SLOW AND IS NOW 285/7.  CELIA IS CURRENTLY\r\nSOUTH OF A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...BUT\r\nENOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO TAKE\r\nTHE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LEANS\r\nHEAVILY ON THE GUNS CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 15.1N 116.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 15.4N 117.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.9N 119.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 16.4N 121.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 16.6N 123.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.3N 126.9W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 17.6N 130.8W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-07-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004\r\n\r\nCELIA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SYNOPTIC TIME.  HENCE...THE WIND SPEED\r\nIS HELD AT 50 KT.  CELIA STILL HAS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL STORM...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nREMAIN IN A FAIRLY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nSTABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND GFDN GUIDANCE STRENGTHEN THE STORM\r\nINTO A HURRICANE WHEREAS THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE\r\nOR WEAKENING.  SINCE CELIA IS A RATHER SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nTHIS IS A CASE WHERE THE GLOBAL MODELS PROBABLY HAVE GREATER THAN\r\nNORMAL DIFFICULTY IN RESOLVING THE CIRCULATION AND PREDICTING\r\nINTENSITY TRENDS.   BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nCROSSING THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nBEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  CELIA SHOULD\r\nREMAIN EMBEDDED IN EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 15.3N 117.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 15.6N 118.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 16.1N 120.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 122.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N 124.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 AND 45\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN OF THIS SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS HEALTHY.  WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM UNDER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR\r\nCELIA TO STRENGTHEN.  SO FAR...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE STABLE\r\nAIR MASS TO THE WEST OF CELIA HAS BEEN INGESTED INTO THE STORM'S\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IN BRINGING CELIA TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 26C\r\nSST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nBEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW...TO 285/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nTHE GFS IN PARTICULAR...HAS BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE FAST WITH THIS\r\nSYSTEM SO FAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT SUGGEST STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE RIDGING AHEAD OF CELIA.  GIVEN THESE TRENDS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nBUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 15.4N 117.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.7N 118.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 16.2N 120.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.7N 122.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 127.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z INDICATES THAT CELIA WAS NOT AS STRONG AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  EVEN SEARCHING THE HI-RES DATA REVEALS ONLY\r\nA COUPLE OF 40 KT VECTORS.  SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN\r\nINCREASE IN BANDED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THERE IS SOME\r\nINDICATION THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BE RESTRICTED\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  CELIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS STILL LOW...SO THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR CELIA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE IMPROVED BANDING NOTED ABOVE MAY INDICATE\r\nTHAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR. BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS SETTLED DOWN AT ABOUT 285/6.  CELIA IS SOUTH OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN A MID-LATITUDE 500 MB RIDGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO BE TOO FAST AND TOO FAR TO\r\nTHE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS AND IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF AND\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 15.5N 118.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.8N 119.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 16.4N 120.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N 122.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 19.0N 134.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 20 2004\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS FLUCTUATED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE EVENING.  THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION IS A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THAN EARLIER...AND\r\nA SHORT-LIVED EYE-WANNABE APPEARED IN THE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...\r\nOVERALL THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM\r\nSAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR...\r\nPOSSIBLY DUE TO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/7.  CELIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT SPREAD BETWEEN WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD MOTIONS.  THE MOST SOUTHERLY OF THE\r\nMODELS...THE GFS AND THE UKMET...HAVE A RELATIVELY WEAK\r\nREPRESENTATION OF THE STORM AND ARE QUICKER TO DISSIPATE IT.  THE\r\nGFDL AND THE NOGAPS HAVE A STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nAND A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL...CALLING FOR\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD\r\nTURN AS CELIA WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER.  THE NEW FORECAST IS NUDGED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF CELIA IS IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW IN\r\nTHAT QUADRANT.  OTHERWISE...IT HAS GOOD OUTFLOW.  THE JOG TO THE\r\nRIGHT HAS BROUGHT CELIA CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE GRADIENT...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR BEFORE CELIA REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN.  NOTE THAT\r\nANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BE INTO EVEN\r\nCOLDER WATER AND LIKELY HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE SYSTEM. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 16.1N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 16.6N 120.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 17.4N 123.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.8N 125.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-07-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 21 2004\r\n...CORRECTED TO ADD THE WORD LOW IN FIFTH SENTENCE BELOW...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY. \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 45 KT.  APPARENTLY\r\nTHE STORM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ESSENTIALLY NEUTRAL FOR\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS IMPEDING OUTFLOW IN THAT DIRECTION. \r\nOTHERWISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE.  AS HAS\r\nBEEN NOTED EARLIER...STABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE IMPEDING\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS OUTPUT WHICH\r\nSHOWS NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE FROM THE BUOYANCY\r\nTERM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALLOWS FOR\r\nA LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO HAVE AN\r\nINFLUENCE.  IF CELIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY MORE TO THE NORTH THAN\r\nANTICIPATED...IT WOULD LIKELY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 290/7.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE AND THIS IS\r\nLIKELY THE REASON FOR THE RATHER SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHE GFS INITIALIZES CELIA AS AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK PERTURBATION\r\nAND CONSEQUENTLY LOSES IT WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. \r\nTHIS IS A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 16.2N 119.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 17.1N 122.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 124.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.8N 125.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 133.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-07-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 21 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55...55...AND 50 KT FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS GOOD BANDING ABOUT A\r\nWELL-DEFINED IR WARM SPOT THAT IS ALSO APPARENT IN MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY. STILL...THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0230Z DIDN'T SHOW ANYTHING\r\nABOVE ABOUT 40 KT. THIS MOST LIKELY MEANS THAT EITHER CELIA IS\r\nWEAKER THAN INDICATED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...PERHAPS BECAUSE\r\nOF LOW LEVEL STABILITY INHIBITING VERTICAL TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM TO\r\nTHE SURFACE...OR THE WIND MAXIMUM IS TOO SMALL TO BE RESOLVED BY\r\nTHE SCATTEROMETER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES...\r\nIN CALLING FOR A LITTLE DEVELOPMENT BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE\r\nREACHED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 286/6.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.   CELIA REMAINS SOUTH\r\nOF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W\r\nLONGITUDE AND THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE RATHER SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA MOVES PAST THIS WEAKNESS\r\nWHILE IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WITH A SHALLOWER LAYER MEAN\r\nFLOW.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 16.2N 120.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.8N 122.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N 124.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 129.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 133.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-07-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2004\r\n \r\n18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...WITH\r\n55 KT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED.  THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT\r\n1340Z INDICATED THAT CELIA'S PEAK WINDS WERE AT LEAST 50 KT AT THAT\r\nTIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE EARLIER OUTFLOW RESTRICTION IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT SEEMS TO HAVE DISSIPATED.  CELIA COULD REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...BUT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS RUNNING OUT AS SSTS UNDER THE CYCLONE ARE\r\nBEGINNING TO DECREASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nDECAY BEGINNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN DUE WEST...BUT A\r\nLONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 280/6.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST THINKING.  CELIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE. SOME INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS CELIA MOVES\r\nPAST THIS WEAKNESS WHILE IT WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE WITH A\r\nSHALLOWER LAYER MEAN FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH\r\nOF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 16.3N 121.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 122.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-07-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 21 2004\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AN AQUA OVERPASS AT 21/2115Z SHOWED CELIA HAS\r\nA SMALL EYE WITH AN 80 TO 90 PERCENT CLOSED EYEWALL...AND THERE ARE\r\nHINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 65 KT...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW NEAR 65 KT.  BASED ON THIS...CELIA IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...THE FIRST OF THE 2004 EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HR.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST THINKING.  CELIA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 125W LONGITUDE.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD PAST THE WEAKNESS WITH SOME INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  TPC TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTYPICAL SPREAD BETWEEN WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTIONS...\r\nWITH SOME SPREAD IN SPEED AS WELL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL\r\nAND GFDN.\r\n\r\nCELIA CURRENTLY SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...\r\nEXCEPT TO THE NORTH WHERE IT IS POOR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nPATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nCONTROLLED MAINLY BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES JUST TO THE NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR CELIA\r\nTO MOVE ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOTHERMS...REACHING 24C\r\nTEMPERATURES IN 3-4 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSTARTING AFTER ABOUT 12-24 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER TO DISSIPATE THE STORM THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BASED ON\r\nTHE FORECAST MOTION AND THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 16.3N 121.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.8N 124.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.1N 125.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.3N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-07-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB AND 65 KT FROM AFWA.  THE 77 KT ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON\r\nTHE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...AND WITH INFRARED IMAGERY THERE IS A\r\nGOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EMBEDDED DISTANCE.  MOREOVER...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING\r\nFEATURES...AND NO APPARENT EYE.  HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0206 UTC SHOWED A 65 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...TO 70 KT.  CELIA\r\nSHOULD BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY TO BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  IN 2-3 DAYS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25\r\nDEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT AROUND 6 KT...WHICH\r\nIS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nADVISORY PACKAGES.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF CELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  AS IN EARLIER RUNS...THE GFS MODEL HAS\r\nUNDER-INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THE OBJECTIVE VORTEX\r\nTRACKER IS UNABLE TO FOLLOW A CENTER.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL SHOWS WHAT LOOKS LIKE AN UNREALISTICALLY LARGE STORM\r\nIN THE INITIAL STATE.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE\r\nTO THE LATEST GFDL...GFDN...AND U.K. MET OFFICE GUIDANCE...AND\r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 16.5N 122.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.7N 123.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 124.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.3N 126.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.6N 127.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-07-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES WERE DOWN A HALF AT 12Z...AND\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING.  IT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA'S\r\nINTENSITY HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS PEAK.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS. IN 36-48 HOURS CELIA WILL LIKELY HAVE REACHED THE 25\r\nDEG C SST ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD BE WEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION AND IS MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST...\r\n275/5.  IN ADDITION TO THE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO\r\nTHE WEST OF CELIA MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PERSISTENT SLOW\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  WHEN CELIA WEAKENS...THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD\r\nINCREASE AS LOWER-LEVEL STEERING BEGINS TO DOMINATE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE PAST 12-18\r\nHOURS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH UKMET TRENDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 16.3N 122.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.4N 123.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 16.7N 124.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 126.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N 128.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 136.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-07-22 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT THU JUL 22 2004\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO DOWNGRADE CELIA TO A TROPICAL STORM.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CELIA IS RAPIDLY LOSING ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND CELIA IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM WITH\r\nWINDS OF 50 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THE TRACK FORECAST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION IS\r\nUNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1800Z 16.3N 122.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.4N 123.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 16.7N 124.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 126.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-07-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004\r\n \r\nVIRTUALLY ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CELIA HAS EVAPORATED.  THE\r\nWINDS ARE CLEARLY DECREASING...ALTHOUGH IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE JUST\r\nHOW QUICKLY.  THE LATEST DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS...HELD UP BY\r\nCONSTRAINTS...ARE 3.0/4.0.  GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS OVER 26C WATER IN\r\nAN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WILL BE BASED ON THE T NUMBER.  WATER TEMPERATURES WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL UNDER THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SO A CONTINUED DECAY IS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS A SHADE\r\nFASTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nWITH A SHALLOW LAYER FLOW AND PICK UP SOME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE DAYS BEFORE THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 16.3N 123.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.4N 124.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 126.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 128.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-07-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 22 2004\r\n \r\nCELIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE MOST\r\nCONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  AS NOTED EARLIER...IT IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY HOW FAST THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING. \r\nHOWEVER...EARLIER WIND IMAGERY FROM SSM/I AND TRMM INDICATES THAT\r\nWHATEVER TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS REMAIN ARE CONFINED TO THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nREDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nREDUCED ON THE SOUTH SIDE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MICROWAVE DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  CELIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST TRACK GUDIANCE...\r\nINCLUDING THE BAMS...CALLS FOR A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHIS MAY BE ACADEMIC...AS SUCH A TRACK WOULD LEAD TO AN EVEN FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST DEMISE OVER COOLER WATER.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFS.\r\n\r\nCELIA MAY BE FEELING THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SEEMS TO\r\nBE CAUSING SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CYCLONE CENTER. \r\nTHIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND UNTIL\r\nTHE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 48-72 HR.  SEVERAL MODELS KEEP CELIA\r\nALIVE UNTIL 120 HR...WHICH DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nTRENDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 16.3N 124.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.4N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N 127.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 129.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 131.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS A SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN AND CONSISTS OF A FEW CELLS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH A DISRUPTED OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBASED ON EARLIER 0307Z SSMI WHICH SHOWS A VERY SMALL AREA OF 35\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS NEARING COOLER WATERS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT CELIA IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LOW. THEREFORE...\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER... A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WILL\r\nLIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS PRODUCING INTERMETTENT CONVECTION.  \r\n\r\nCELIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. A RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 16.4N 125.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...A FEW BANDS OF MODERATE\r\nCONVECTION HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ALSO...\r\n23/0927Z TRMM AND 23/1011Z AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE A\r\nTIGHTLY WOUND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAVE BEEN INDICATING. AS SUCH...THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT\r\n35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE TIGHT INNER\r\nSTRUCTURE NOTED IN THE TWO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/07. THE TREND IN THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS\r\nOVER THE PAST 9 HOURS WOULD SUGGEST THAT CELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TO\r\nAROUND 5-6 KT. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE\r\nLOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. WHILE THE TRACK OVER THE\r\nPAST 36 HOURS HAS REMAINED ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE CELIA\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nLIES TO THE NORTH. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAKENING\r\nVERTICAL STRUCTURE. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FORCED MAINLY WESTWARD\r\nBY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHERE MAY BE A FEW SPOTS OF 35 KT WINDS IN THE BAND TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...BUT WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS NOW BEING DRAWN\r\nINTO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS SEEN IN NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...A FASTER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN. THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER FAVORABLE WITH VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 35-40 KT THROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE SUB-25C SST WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nPASSING OVER AFTER 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT AND\r\nORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 16.1N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 127.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.2N 129.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.2N 130.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 132.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004\r\n \r\nA BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS AS COLD -80C HAS REDEVELOPED\r\nMORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST\r\nFIVE HOURS. THERFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT\r\n35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE IMPROVED BANDING\r\nSTRUCTURE THAT HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE 18Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/08. WHILE THE TRACK OF CELIA OVER THE PAST\r\n42 HOURS HAS REMAINED ON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nCELIA WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...\r\nWHICH SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. AS CELIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOLDER WATER...THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE SHOULD DECREASE AND THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE LARGE PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS\r\nAGAIN CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND WEAKENING HAS\r\nBEEN INTERRUPTED. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE CENTER IS\r\nFORECAST TO PASS OVER SUB-25C SST WATER WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING. UNFORTUNATELY...UNTIL THAT TIME...CELIA MAY\r\nCONTINUE TO HUG THE EAST-WEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT AND GENERATE AT\r\nLEAST INTERMITTENT CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS PREVIOUS TREND OF KEEPING\r\nCELIA BETWEEN 35-40 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THE\r\nCYCLONE AFTER THAT. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN\r\n5 KT FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS...THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD\r\nUP SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 16.1N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 127.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 129.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.4N 131.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 133.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 23 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE FLARE UP SEEN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIED\r\nAWAY...LEAVING A LARGE MASS OF CIRRUS DEBRIS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF CELIA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n35 KT...AS IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY CELIA MIGHT BE WEAKENING\r\nWITH THE DEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE BURST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/7.  CELIA HAS TRACKED\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE PAST TWO TO THREE DAYS EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS CALLED FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION.  MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK...ALTHOUGH THE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL HAVE SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM 24 HR AGO.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR CELIA\r\nTO CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nDISSIPATES IN 48-72 HR.  THIS TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE...AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FROM NCEP SHOW THAT CELIA IS PASSING OVER A\r\nNORTHWARD BULGE IN THE 27C ISOTHERM.  THIS MAY HAVE AIDED THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST.  THIS BULGE EXTENDS ALONG 16N TO ABOUT 130W...AND\r\nCELIA SHOULD BE MOVING OFF OF IT BY ABOUT 24 HR.  THUS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE FOR 12 HR OR SO FOLLOWED\r\nA RESUMPTION OF GRADUAL WEAKENING.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nGFDL AND SHIPS BOTH INDICATE THAT CELIA WILL SURVIVE OUT TO 120\r\nHR...SO IT COULD LAST A BIT LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 16.2N 127.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 130.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 132.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.6N 134.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH TO SAY ABOUT CELIA. THE CYCLONE IS DEFINED BY A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nCONVENTIONAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AT\r\nBEST A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION BUT THERE IS ONE VECTOR OF 35 KNOTS IN\r\nTHE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO 30 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD \r\nCONTINUE WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 16.5N 127.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 130.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N 132.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 24 2004\r\n \r\nCELIA CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN SLOWLY.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS A TIGHT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nINTERMITTENTLY FORMING IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 30 KTS AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 290/8. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 17.1N 128.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 129.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N 131.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 24 2004\r\n \r\nCELIA CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS A TIGHT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nINTERMITTENTLY FORMING IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 30 KTS AND THAT WILL AGAIN BE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 280/9. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 17.3N 130.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.6N 131.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 133.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 135.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUL 24 2004\r\n \r\nANOTHER CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER\r\nOF CELIA.  OTHERWISE...CELIA REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nCLOUDS...WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SUGGESTING STABLE AIR WRAPPED\r\nINTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THAT REMAINS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE FASTER OVER\r\nTHE PAST 6 HR...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 285/11.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE\r\nLOW LEVEL RIDGE BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GUNS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT BURST MAY BE THE LAST GASP FOR CELIA.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nNOW MOVING OFF THE NORTHWARD BULGE OF WARMER WATER NOTED LAST\r\nNIGHT...AND IN 12-24 HR IT SHOULD BE OVER 24C OR COLDER WATER. \r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 17.7N 131.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 18.1N 132.9W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.3N 135.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 18.3N 137.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 139.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUL 25 2004\r\n \r\nONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON\r\nNUMEROUS UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT ON A 25/0228Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT...OR\r\nT2.0...FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/11. THIS MOTION AND THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...PAST MOTION...AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT POSITION. THIS PLACES\r\nTHE CENTER OF CELIA A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nFIX POSITIONS...WHICH ARE UP INTO THE CONVECTION. CELIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE\r\nDECOUPLES FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG PACIFIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nGUNA AND GUNS MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE REMNANT CIRCULATION SURVIVES\r\nBEYOND WHAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING...IT WOULD MOVE\r\nOVER WARMER WATER THAT COULD LEAD TO THE REGENERATION OF CONVECTION\r\nAND THE CYCLONE. THE SHALLOW BAM AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE REMNANT\r\nLOW TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nUNLIKE THE PAST TWO NIGHTS AT THIS TIME...THE CONVECTION IS NOW ON\r\nTHE WANE. INTERMITTENT BRIEF BURSTS OF CONVECTION MAY OCCUR FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ANY PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SUB-24C SST WATER FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE\r\nRESULT SHOULD BE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY 48\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...IF CELIA MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING\r\n...THEN COMPLETE DISSIPATION OF THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 18.0N 132.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.2N 134.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.2N 137.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 18.2N 139.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.1N 142.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUL 25 2004\r\n\r\nONLY SOME ISOLATED CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAIN IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH CELIA.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE\r\nLATER TODAY...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 18.4N 133.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.6N 135.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 18.7N 138.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.7N 141.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.7N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUL 25 2004\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH CELIA MAY GENERATE SOME\r\nINTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM\r\nIS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON CELIA.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 18.8N 134.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 142.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 26 2004\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WELL TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS ALSO BECOMING MORE\r\nEVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THUS ADVISORIES\r\nARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS AND BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW. \r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL DEFINED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT\r\nOF SCATTER IN LOCATION ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/11...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL\r\nMEAN FOR THE BASIN.  THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nDOMINATE THE STEERING.  THE NHC TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN\r\nBY THE NCEP GFS MODEL.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 12.5N 114.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 12.9N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 118.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 14.0N 120.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 122.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N 130.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 26 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE BASIS OF T2.5\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION CLOSE\r\nTO AND NORTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND SOME\r\nBANDING IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE IS GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT NONE IS EVIDENT ELSEWHERE.\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF DARBY APPEARS TO BE IN ITS FORMATIVE\r\nSTAGE...STILL ELONGATED AND NOT YET HAVING CLEANLY SEPARATED FROM\r\nTHE ITCZ.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nSHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL RATHER THAN RAPID.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS...ON THE OTHER HAND...TAKE DARBY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n24-36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKES 48 HOURS TO REACH THAT THRESHOLD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 280/12.  I DON'T HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS TONIGHT.  CURIOUSLY...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nCALLS FOR AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE MODELS MAY BE\r\nREACTING TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AHEAD OF DARBY NEAR\r\n21N/122W...OR PERHAPS HAVE A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING FLOW.  THERE ARE ALSO SUGGESTIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nTHAT THE UPPER-LOW COULD END UP WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...YET THE MODELS TEND TO BEND\r\nTHE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST ABOUT THIS TIME.  IT'S USUALLY A LOSING\r\nPROPOSITION TO TRY TO OUT-INTEGRATE THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO ACCOMODATE THIS GUIDANCE WITH A\r\nSHORT-TERM BEND TO THE RIGHT FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  I\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISED HOWEVER...IF IT TURNS OUT THAT DARBY MOVES\r\nMORE WESTWARD INITIALLY AND THEN TURNS NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 12.5N 116.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.1N 117.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 13.9N 119.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 121.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 15.0N 123.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 135.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 2004\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS AND HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...OR CDO...\r\nFEATURE. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE CDO AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED AND BECOME\r\nMORE CIRCULAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND 30\r\nKT FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/12. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TRANSLATING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS. IRONICALLY...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE ALL TAKEN\r\nDARBY OFF TO THE NORTHWEST FROM ITS INITIAL POSITIONS DURING THE\r\nSAME TIME FRAME. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND THE GFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nTHE WORSE AND HAVE HAD A 30 DEGREE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS OVER THE\r\nLAST FEW MODEL RUNS. THE UKMET HAS HAD ONLY A SLIGHTLY LESS RIGHT\r\nBIAS. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING POORLY\r\nINITIALIZED AN ALLEGED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF DARBY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS WATER\r\nVAPOR WIND ANALYSES INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NORTHWEST\r\nTHROUGH NORTHEAST OF DARBY IS WESTERLY AT 10-15 KT. IN ADDITION...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DARBY HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nRAPIDLY NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS LIKELY\r\nRESULTED IN THE ELIMINATION OF THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...P91E...AND THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DARBY IS REALLY STARTING TO WIND UP\r\nA TIGHT CONVECTIVE BAND...SO A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DARBY \r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN IN A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WITH\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR GRADUALLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36 HOURS.\r\nTHE ONLY HINDERING INFLUENCE APPEARS TO BE THE COOLER WATER THAT\r\nDARBY WILL BE PASSING OVER AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nBY A WEAKENING FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF AN EYE\r\nDEVELOPS DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...THEN RAPID STRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD LAST LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND DARBY COULD BECOME A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE BY 36-48 HOURS WHILE STILL OVER 27-28C SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 12.8N 117.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.2N 118.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 13.8N 120.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 14.3N 122.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 14.8N 124.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 15.5N 128.7W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 137.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 27 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nDARBY IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING. THERE IS A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE\r\nCURVED BAND TO THE WEST AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND IT IS MOST PRONOUNCED\r\nON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE ALREADY 55 KNOTS. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE OVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AND THEN FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING ARE HIGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nDARBY IS MOVING 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS TO ITS WEST. THIS PATTERN IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW DARBY TO MOVE WEST OR \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS IN\r\nPREVIOUS FORECASTS. I WAS TEMPTED TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nNORTHWARD TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS BUT I RATHER WAIT\r\nFOR TODAYS EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 13.4N 118.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 120.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 14.7N 123.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 15.3N 125.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.0N 127.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 131.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 17.0N 135.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 139.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A BANDING TYPE EYE IS TRYING TO\r\nDEVELOP. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO CALL\r\nTHE SYSTEM A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT 3.5 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THE FORMATION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE...\r\nWINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM\r\nWATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE CHANCES OF DARBY BECOMING A HURRICANE AND THEN\r\nSTRENGTHENING FURTHER ARE HIGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nDARBY IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS TO ITS WEST.\r\nTHIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WOULD ALLOW DARBY TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH MAINTAINS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.\r\nIF DARBY WEAKENS MORE THAN INDICATED DUE TO COOL WATERS...THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD MOVE MORE TO WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 13.8N 119.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 121.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N 141.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 27 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nEARLIER BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED...SUBJECTIVE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0Z WERE BOTH T4.0...65 KT. \r\nAFWA'S ESTIMATE WAS LOWER...AT 55 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS ARE ALSO BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  CONSEQUENTLY DARBY IS BEING HELD AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH DARBY WILL REMAIN IN A WARM WATER/LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...NEITHER THE GFDL NOR\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CALLING FOR MORE THAN ABOUT 10 KT OF\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR IS\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF DARBY WILL\r\nBE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDARBY IS MOVING AT 290/13.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF THIS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AS DARBY\r\nMOVES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...DARBY SHOULD BE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT MAY\r\nCAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN TO A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  THE GFS IS\r\nSOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER...CALLING FOR A RAPID WEAKENING OF DARBY\r\nFOLLOWED BY A RATHER QUICK TURN TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 14.4N 121.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.1N 122.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.7N 125.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 16.4N 127.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 17.0N 129.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 17.5N 133.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 137.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 28 2004\r\n \r\nSSMI MICROWAVE DATA AT 28/0336Z AND 28/0507Z CLEARLY INDICATE THAT\r\nDARBY HAS DEVELOPED A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE...WHICH MAKES CENTER\r\nPLACEMENT FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nIS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE LARGE VARIANCE IN THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH RANGE FROM 77 KT FROM TAFB TO 65 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA. IN ADDITION...AUTOMATED ODT VALUES\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS ARE AROUND 69 KT WITH A COUPLE OF RAW VALUES OF 77\r\nKT. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ODT VALUES...A ROUND CDO FEATURE...AND\r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED EYE NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT AND DARBY IS UPGRADED TO THE SECOND\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2004 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nMUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON DARBY MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED. BY 72 HOURS...A MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED\r\nAFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THE DOMINANT STEERING\r\nFLOW IS THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. SINCE THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES HAVE BEEN BASICALLY COMING IN ON TRACK...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nIS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT DARBY HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE HURRICANE\r\nMOVES OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 36-48 HOURS SINCE DARBY REMAINS IN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 27.5 SSTS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nRAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 30 HOURS...SUCH PHASES RARELY\r\nEXCEED 36 HOURS. AS SUCH... THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND IS BEING\r\nLEVELED OFF SOMEWHAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 14.8N 122.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 15.4N 123.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 125.9W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 127.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 17.0N 130.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 134.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 139.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 143.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 28 2004\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT DARBY HAS AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT DARBY SHOULD BEGIN REACHING COOLER WATERS\r\nIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE HAS A DAY OR SO TO\r\nINTENSIFY BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 13\r\nKNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A WEAKENESS\r\nLOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DARBY TO CONTINUE ON\r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...AS DARBY WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nBE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN MORE TO THE WEST IN 4 AND 5 DAYS.  DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS WHEN DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THERAFTER\r\n...AS WEAKENING BEGINS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO BAMM\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 15.5N 123.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.2N 125.2W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N 127.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 18.5N 136.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 145.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-07-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 28 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. DARBY HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BANDING FEATURES. BECAUSE T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. SINCE DARBY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26\r\nDEGREE ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE...THERE IS ONLY LESS THAN A DAY FOR DARBY TO FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHEN...IF AT ALL. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN.\r\n\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. A WEAKNESS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW DARBY\r\nTO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK.  HOWEVER...AS DARBY WEAKENS...IT\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST IN 4 AND 5 DAYS.  DURING THE\r\nFIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WHEN DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG\r\nSYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...AS WEAKENING BEGINS AND THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nSHALLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO BAMM OR BAMS MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 16.2N 124.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.9N 126.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 132.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 19.5N 137.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 142.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-07-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUL 28 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nA CONSENSUS 5.0...OR 90 KT.  DARBY WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST\r\nISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...SO A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DECAY.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL TAKES DARBY DOWN FAST...DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 96 HOURS\r\nAFTER IT PASSES OVER 23-24C WATER.  THE GFDL HAS A SLOWER DECAY...\r\nEVEN SHOWING A BIT OF A RECOVERY AT 5 DAYS AS SSTS SLOWLY INCREASE\r\nAGAIN.  IF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RIGHT...HOWEVER...STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD PREVAIL BY THEN AND PRECLUDE ANY RESTRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A DECAY RATE THAT ROUGHLY SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  SUFFICIENT\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP THE PRESENT\r\nMOTION...295/12...STEADY UNTIL DARBY WEAKENS AND TURNS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT WITH A SHALLOW LAYER FLOW.  THE GFS...WHICH INITIALIZES\r\nDARBY AS A 1010 MB LOW AND WEAKENS IT QUICKLY...REMAINS THE OUTLIER\r\nON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NOGAPS ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND KEEPS DARBY SEEMINGLY TOO STRONG AND TAKES IT NORTHWESTWARD\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND MEDIUM BAM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 16.6N 125.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 17.3N 127.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 129.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 18.6N 131.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 19.0N 134.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 19.5N 139.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 144.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-07-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY HAS BEEN AN AMAZING HURRICANE BY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE\r\nPAST 54 HOURS BY INCREASING FROM 35 KT TO 105 KT...WITH THE LAST \r\n12 HOURS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAVING OCCURRED OVER SUB-27C\r\nSSTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS BASED ON A SOLID DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0...OR 115 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB AND A 29/0229Z AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 959 MB. ONLY 90\r\nPERCENT OF THE 115 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BEING USED\r\nSINCE DARBY IS OVER 26C WATER. I FEEL THAT COMPLETE DOWNWARD MIXING\r\nOF THE STRONG WINDS TO THE SURFACE IS NOT OCCURRING DUE TO THE\r\nCOOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THIS STILL MAKES\r\nDARBY THE FIRST NORTHEAST PACIFIC MAJOR HURRICANE SINCE KENNA BACK\r\nIN OCTOBER 2002.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS HAVE BEEN\r\nCOMING IN ON TRACK SO THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING. THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH SHOULD KEEP DARBY MOVING ALONG ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...\r\nWITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST BY 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nRAPIDLY WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL TRADE\r\nWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE GUNS AND GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nDARBY WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND OVER\r\nSUB-24C WATER BY 36 HOURS...SO RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO\r\nCOMMENCE SHORTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...EXCEPT THE SHIPS MODEL COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE\r\nCYCLONE BY 84 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 17.0N 126.8W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.6N 128.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.3N 130.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 18.8N 132.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 19.1N 135.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 140.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 150.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-07-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION...DARBY'S CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO\r\nMOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS\r\nDISTINCT AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS.\r\nCOOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT THE HURRICANE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AND WEAKENING AT A FASTER PACE SHOULD BEGIN SOON.\r\nTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nDARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY\r\nWESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN\r\nDARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 17.6N 128.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.2N 129.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.8N 132.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 134.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 142.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 152.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS NOT LONGER CLEARLY DEPICTED ON VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING\r\nTHAT DARBY HAS BEEN WEAKENING. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS. COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD\r\nAFFECT THE HURRICANE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nDARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY\r\nWESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN\r\nDARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 17.9N 128.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 19.5N 135.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.0N 137.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 142.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N 147.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 153.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-07-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY IS COMING APART RAPIDLY.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS BECOMING\r\nLESS WELL DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  CURRENT DVORAK T/CI NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS\r\n4.0/5.0...AND IN ACCORD WITH RECENT STUDIES...THE INTENSITY IS SET\r\nTO AN AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS...OR 75 KT.  COLD WATER AND\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR LIE AHEAD FOR DARBY...SO CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DECAY IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n285/11...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION. EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND ITS DEPENDENT GFNI...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. WITH AN APPARENT DECOUPLING UNDERWAY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 18.3N 129.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.8N 131.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 19.2N 134.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 136.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.5N 139.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N 144.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-07-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUL 30 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS ITS DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN\r\nSIZE AND ORGANIZATION.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS DECREASED\r\nTO 65 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS AND GFS MODELS DISSIPATE DARBY IN 36 HOURS\r\nUNDER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.  HOWEVER THE\r\nNOGAPS AND UKMET HOLD ON TO A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR 120 HOURS\r\nAND THE GFDL DISSPATES THE SYSTEM AT 120 HOURS.  AS A COURSE OF\r\nLEAST REGRET...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES OUT TO 120 HOURS WITH A\r\n30 KNOT DEPRESSION.  IT IS OF COURSE MORE LIKELY THAT DARBY WILL\r\nNOT LAST THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ABOUT A MOTION JUST NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST 72\r\nHOURS.  ONLY THE NOGAPS SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AFTER 72\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE NOGAPS KEEPING A STRONGER SYSTEM.\r\nTHE GFDL AND UKMET ARE MOSTLY WESTWARD FOR 120 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS A CONCENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 18.6N 130.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 132.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 19.3N 135.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 19.5N 138.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.7N 140.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 19.8N 146.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 20.5N 151.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 22.0N 154.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-07-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUL 30 2004\r\n\r\nDARBY HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CONVECTION...AND THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN COVERAGE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT\r\nFROM AFWA AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  BASED ON THIS...DARBY IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12...AND OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE\r\nCYCLONE MAY BE MOVING DUE WEST.  DARBY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSTRONG LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nLOCATED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DARBY\r\nON A BASICALLY WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...\r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD IF THE\r\nCYCLONE STILL HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH.  THE NOGAPS...WHICH KEEPS\r\nDARBY STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...TURNS IT NORTHWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC TROUGH.  OTHER LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS...WHICH FORECAST A WEAKER SYSTEM...SHOW A MORE WESTERLY\r\nMOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TRACK FOR 72\r\nHR... FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK IS NUDGED\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDN AND BAMM. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  NORMALLY A CYCLONE OF\r\nTHIS ORGANIZATION AT THIS LOCATION CONTINUES WEAKENING UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND SHIPS MODELS. \r\nHOWEVER...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL\r\nIN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...AND THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER INCREASING SSTS AFTER IT CROSSES 140W.  THIS MAY BE REFLECTED\r\nIN THE NOGAPS FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST TENDS TO\r\nCOMPROMISE...CALLING FOR DARBY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 36 HR\r\nTHEN LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIOS INCLUDE DARBY COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE\r\nWARMER WATER...OR THAT INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE TROUGH COULD DISSIPATE IT DESPITE THE WARMER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 18.6N 132.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 18.9N 134.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 19.1N 136.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 19.3N 139.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.4N 142.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 152.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N 155.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-07-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUL 30 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH\r\nISOLATED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nAS IS OFTEN THE CASE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE INTENSITY\r\nOF THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT\r\nFROM AFWA...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB.  A HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1446Z SHOWED A 50 KT VECTOR NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER.  IN DEFERENCE TO THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE SET AT 50 KT...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  DARBY REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED\r\nNORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP DARBY ON A\r\nBASICALLY WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD IF IT STILL HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH.  THE\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH KEEPS A DARBY STRONG THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...NOW CALLS FOR LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN THAN EARLIER. \r\nOTHER LARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH FORECAST A WEAKER SYSTEM...\r\nCONTINUE SHOW A MORE WESTERLY MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A WESTWARD TRACK FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...PARTICULARLY AT 96 AND 120 HR...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE CONSENSUS CONU GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK COULD BE SHIFTED MORE\r\nSOUTHWARD IF DARBY WEAKENS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nDARBY IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  WHILE THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CARRIES THE SYSTEM OVER INCREASING SSTS AFTER 24\r\nHR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOULD AFFECT DARBY AROUND THAT TIME.  THIS WILL LIKELY\r\nPREVENT ANY RE-INTENSIFICATION AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DARBY TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITSELF AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN CHANGED TO CALL FOR DARBY TO BE DISSIPATING BY 72 HR AND A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 18.7N 133.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 18.9N 135.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 19.1N 138.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 19.2N 141.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.3N 144.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 149.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N 156.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-07-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUL 30 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD IN THIS ADVISORY. DARBY HAS BECOME A TIGHT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF WEAK TO MODERATE\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 40 KNOTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DARBY\r\nSHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN 48 HOURS OR LESS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT\r\nPATCHES CONVECTION.  \r\n\r\nBECAUSE DARBY HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS. THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL FLOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE AND DARBY OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 18.8N 135.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 18.9N 137.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 151.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 155.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 158.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-07-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM ALL AGENCIES BUT A RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE A FEW 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  ALL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO WITH\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL SSTS.  THE SSTS WARM UP APPROACHING\r\nHAWAII...SO THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 120\r\nHOURS...BUT THE REMNANT MAY NOT LAST THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14.  WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK AND A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER 96 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONCENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 19.0N 136.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 19.2N 138.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 142.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N 145.1W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.2N 148.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 19.8N 152.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 156.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 159.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Darby","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-07-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY IS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD THAT IS CURRENTLY VOID OF\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...IN DEFERENCE TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nMENTIONED IN THE LAST ADVISORY AND WINDS FROM A 0603Z SSM/I\r\nOVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  DARBY IS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN\r\nSHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FROM 48-96 HR.\r\n\r\nWHILE DARBY SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER FROM HERE ON...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING\r\nTREND...WITH DARBY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HR AND WEAKENING\r\nTO AN EASTERLY WAVE AFTER 96 HR.  DARBY MAY DISSIPATE EVEN FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 18.9N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N 140.1W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.0N 143.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 146.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 154.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 158.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Darby","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-07-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUL 31 2004\r\n \r\nDARBY CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUD THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nVOID OF CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT...\r\nWITH ALL THE USUAL UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT HOW FAST THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM\r\nUSUALLY WEAKENS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13.  DARBY IS SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF ITS LIFE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nWHILE DARBY SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATER FROM HERE ON...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING...\r\nWITH DARBY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND AN EASTERLY WAVE\r\nAFTER 72 HR.  DARBY MAY DISSIPATE EVEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHAT IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DARBY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 18.9N 139.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 141.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N 145.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N 148.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-07-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 425 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SIX-E. THE CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5\r\n...OR 25 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AND UNCONTAMINATED\r\n25-30 KT SSMI WINDS NOTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A\r\n29/0452Z SSMI OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A\r\nRESULT OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED JUST\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE POORLY INITIALIZED\r\nBY AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES TO FAR SOUTH AT 29/00Z AND...THEREFORE...\r\nGIVE THE APPEARANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MAKE A SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nJOG FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED...\r\nALTHOUGH A TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS A POSSIBILITY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL AND THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL...P91E.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO MUCH COOLER WATER...THERE IS ONLY\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS AVAILABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO\r\nOCCUR. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE FAVORABLE\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE ALREADY POSSESSING A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONE\r\nALOFT. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF MAJOR HURRICANE DARBY IS BEGINNING TO\r\nTURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD TD SIX-E. THIS MAY RESULT IN INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND...WHEN COMBINED WITH THE COOLER WATER AHEAD...\r\nPREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM GETTING MUCH ABOVE 40 KT...AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 17.0N 114.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.2N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.7N 119.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 17.8N 121.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-07-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS AND ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 25 KNOTS.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BEING SHEARED BY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST OF HURRICANE DARBY.  NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE\r\nONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING AS IT REACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK...HOWEVER THIS DIRECTION OF MOTION IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO PERSIST.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST OF\r\nDARBY SO THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WILL NOT OCCUR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 16.7N 114.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 116.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.2N 118.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.5N 120.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS LIMITED AND NOT\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED...AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS DO NOT DEPICT AN OBVIOUS\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION.  ALSO...DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AGO CAST SOME DOUBT ON THE EXISTENCE OF A DEFINITE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS\r\nAND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXCESSIVELY HIGH...THE SYSTEM MAY\r\nSURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN ITS CURRENT CONDITION...A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS\r\nFOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS...MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT...OR\r\nTHE CYCLONIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM...IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  WITH LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH...A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR\r\nREMNANT LOW...IS LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 16.3N 116.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.3N 118.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.3N 120.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N 123.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 124.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 16.7N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-07-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF THIS SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS THAT OF AN\r\nOPEN TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS WITH A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMUM AT\r\nITS APEX.  THERE IS NO EVIDENCE IN THE IMAGERY THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS\r\nA WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  IT IS ALSO ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE\r\nTO CLOSE OFF A CENTER IN THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES FROM THIS\r\nMORNING.  CONSEQUENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nDISSIPATED AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nWITH LOW-TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS IS LIKELY\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO\r\nGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION AND REGENERATION IS NOT OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION.  \r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION PLEASE\r\nSEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...\r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 16.3N 117.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 01 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nEVENING WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM TAFB AND\r\nT1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM SAB. THEREFORE...ADVSIORIES ARE BEING\r\nRE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...LOCATED ABOUT 1215 NMI \r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE MID-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY ORGANIZING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO AND THE CYCLONE MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO BEEN IMPROVING AND\r\nBECOMING MORE CIRCULAR. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 28C WATER AND\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS...THEN THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 12.4N 127.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 12.6N 129.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 131.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.4N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N 134.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N 141.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS CLOSE\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE AN IMPROVED\r\nBANDING STRUCTURE BEFORE UPGRADING IT.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO COOLER WATERS\r\nAND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nIS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 12.4N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 12.8N 130.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 132.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.4N 134.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.3N 135.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N 140.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 144.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 148.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n \r\nSHORTWARE IR AND LONGWAVE IR IMAGERY STILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E...WITH CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE\r\nWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE CYCLONE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KTS.\r\n \r\nSHIPS INDICATES SLOW STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE\r\nEARLY FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARMER SSTS.  HOWEVER...LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOL\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nREMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...AND REMAINS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 12.4N 130.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 12.9N 131.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 13.8N 133.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 14.7N 135.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 15.3N 137.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 \r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL \r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM\r\nPREVIOUS CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE CYCLONE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KTS.\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE\r\nWEST AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND THIS CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPROBABLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SSTS. THE GFDL IS SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE AROUND 36-48 HRS THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND INTO COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM TRACK\r\nIS GENERALLY WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS...AND IT GENERALLY AGREES WITH CONU AND GUNA MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 12.8N 131.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 132.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.3N 134.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.2N 136.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.9N 138.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 142.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N 146.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 150.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 02 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KT WITH SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION AND T NUMBERS OF 2.0/2.0/1.5 FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE\r\nVARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS CALL FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.  THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE STRONG AFTER 72 HOURS AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED BY A WEAKENING TREND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nA FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nWESTWARD AND ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 12.8N 132.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 13.4N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N 135.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.9N 137.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 150.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 156.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NOT A LOT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TD SIX-E. \r\nTHIS IS SOMEWHAT REFLECTED IN THE T NUMBERS OF 1.5/2.0/1.5 FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB/KGWC.  THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY CALLS\r\nFOR THE SYSTEM TO JUST MAKE IT TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 24\r\nHOURS AND BEGIN WEAKENING AT THE 48 HOUR FORECAST TIME.  \r\n \r\nTHE SYNOPTIC SITUATION REMAINS THE SAME. A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE SYSTEM\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AND JUST TO THE LEFT.  IT IS ALSO\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 13.1N 133.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 134.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 14.7N 136.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.4N 138.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 146.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 151.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 156.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXTREMELY DISORGANIZED.  IN FACT...THE\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS MORE LIKE AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH\r\nA MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AT THE TROUGH APEX.  SATELLITE FIXES ARE\r\nWIDELY SPACED AND LOCATED EITHER ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR NEAR\r\nTHE APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 150 NM FARTHER NORTH. \r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE BETWEEN 1.0 AND 2.0...AND RECENT IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE SINGLE BAND OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY.  A 30 KT DEPRESSION IS\r\nMAINTAINED FOR NOW BASED ON THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS...BUT WE WILL\r\nWAIT TO SEE WHAT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...IF IT EVEN EXISTS AT THE\r\nSURFACE...IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10\r\nRELIES HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nCONTINUED WNW MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM WEAKENS FURTHER.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO\r\nDISSIPATE THE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS....AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR\r\nSOONER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION UNTIL\r\nTHEN...IN AGREEMENT WITH BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 13.5N 133.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.4N 135.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 137.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.1N 139.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.6N 142.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 03 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1440 UTC\r\nINDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION...AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH\r\nWITH EMBEDDED SWIRLS AND ONLY A NARROW BAND OF WEAK CONVECTION. \r\nTHEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nFINAL ADVISORY POSITION IS ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 14.2N 135.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND SSMI/TRMM MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1395 NMI EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO\r\nHAWAII HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SEVEN-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A\r\nCONSENSUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT...FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB AT 19/06Z...AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THEN. A\r\nBAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER\r\n...WHICH EQUATES TO A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5...OR 35 KT. UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING AT A STEADY PACE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST\r\nPACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A\r\nSLIGHT STAIR-STEP IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS INDICATED IN 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS DUE TO A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nLOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC NORTH OF HAWAII THAT IS FORECAST\r\nTO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nEAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND CAUSE IT TO LIFT\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD BACK SOUTH AND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. OF COURSE...JUST HOW FAR NORTH\r\nTHE RIDGE MOVES WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM WILL\r\nAFFECT THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HOURS AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE RATHER TIGHT IN MICROWAVE\r\nDATA....AND GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 10 KT AND OVER 27-28 SSTS...FASTER\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IS HIGHLY POSSIBLE AND THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 11.7N 132.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 12.3N 134.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 13.3N 137.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.4N 139.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 15.2N 142.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.0N 146.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 150.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 17.0N 154.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST FIXES FROM SATELLITE AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nCONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT\r\n275/11. THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE EAST PACIFIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ALONG 17N. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED WELL NE OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE SE AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CAUSING A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nDURING THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN INDICATE THE RIDGE\r\nREBUILDING NE OF HAWAII BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A\r\nSLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE WEST. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THAT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF\r\nHAWAII IN FIVE DAYS. \r\n\r\nLATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE T2.0...30 KT...FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB AND T1.5...25 KT...FROM AFWA. BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL-DEFINED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER BUT HAVE NOT INCREASED IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE HELD AT 55 KT BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 11.7N 133.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.1N 134.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.9N 137.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 13.8N 139.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 142.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 150.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N 154.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE\r\nRAGGED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN\r\nBOTH COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION. LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN AT 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSTILL EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT TO REFLECT\r\nTHE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 280/11 AND A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  A SLIGHT\r\nBEND BACK TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER AS A 500 MB RIDGE\r\nREBUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK EXCEPT AT 120 HOURS. THIS TRACK BRINGS THE CYCLONE\r\nSOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN FIVE DAYS. \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 12.2N 134.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.8N 136.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.8N 138.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.9N 140.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.9N 142.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 149.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 154.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 19 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE COLDEST\r\nTOPS CURRENTLY JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS NEARING\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35\r\nKT FROM AFWA AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB.  GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT\r\nRAGGED OVERALL APPEARANCE AT THIS TIME...IT WILL REMAIN A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 HR INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY\r\nBE A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR 24-48 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nWESTWARD TURN.  TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH A FAIRLY NORMAL SPREAD LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE GFDL AND UKMET CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72\r\nHR...THE BAMD GOES NORTHWEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TURN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH GUNS AND GUNA...AND IT IS SHIFTED ABOUT A\r\nDEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BUT\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CARRIES IT OVER 25-26C SSTS AFTER 24 HR.  IF\r\nTHIS HAPPENS IT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT MODEL.  IT\r\nIS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GFDL...ALTHOUGH THAT IS MOST LIKELY IF IT STAYS\r\nSOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.  THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ABOUT\r\nPOTENTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR.  SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY INDICATES A\r\nSIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 150W WHICH COULD CAUSE SHEAR\r\nIF IT REMAINS IN PLACE.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THE\r\nTROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING WHEN THE CYCLONE FINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING SSTS\r\nAFTER 72 HR. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 13.2N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.1N 137.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.1N 139.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 15.9N 140.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 16.6N 142.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 146.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 149.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 154.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND\r\nA RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT RAIN-FLAGGED WIND SPEEDS. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE WITH 35 KT\r\nWINDS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO 50 KT IN 36 HOURS IN\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH INDICATE SLOWLY \r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SSTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12.  WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nHOLDING TO THE NORTH...THE GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 13.9N 136.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.7N 138.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.4N 140.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.1N 142.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N 143.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 147.2W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 150.8W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THAT ESTELLE IS SHOWING GOOD OVERALL\r\nSTRUCTURE...WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN BANDS NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION DESPITE THE CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERING SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL\r\nSSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 50 KT IN 48\r\nHOURS WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS...THEN REMAIN STEADY\r\nTHEREAFTER AS MODEST SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER ESTELLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL\r\nLIKELY REMAIN NORTH OF ESTELLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REBUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GLOBAL\r\nCONSENSUS SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WILL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 14.1N 137.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 14.8N 139.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 141.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 16.3N 142.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 144.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 151.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nESTELLE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...WITH IMPROVED\r\nBANDING FEATURES IN BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH SEMICIRCLES AND GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RESPONDED TO THIS TREND AND ARE AT\r\nT3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH T2.5...35 KT...FROM AFWA.\r\nBASED ON THIS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR\r\nAND WARM SSTS...AND ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS\r\nSHOULD PUT A CAP ON THE INTENSIFICATION AFTER 24 HOURS. FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY AT 60 KT IS EXPECTED IN THE LONG RANGE FROM 72 HOURS TO\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION OF ESTELLE HAS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n285/11. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AROUND A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BEYOND 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BUT A LITTLE FASTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONG RANGE...\r\nTHE GLOBAL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOWS A SHARPER TURN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST STAYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 14.2N 138.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.7N 140.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.3N 144.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 16.8N 146.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N 151.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 154.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 157.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2004\r\n \r\nESTELLE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHR.  A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS TO -82C HAS FORMED...\r\nAND A WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CDO IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55\r\nKT...AND THAT MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  ESTELLE CONTINUES ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSTORM THAT IS ALLOWING THE CURRENT MOTION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THE RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN ESTELLE MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH 48 HR AND THEN SOMEWHAT DIVERGE...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL\r\nCALLING FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS\r\nCALLING FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE LINE OF BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION BY 120 HR IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nESTELLE LOOKS LIKE A COMAPCT CYCLONE WITH A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL\r\nCORE...AND UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THERE WOULD BE A GOOD CHANCE\r\nFOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE STORM IS MOVING FROM 27C\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO 25-26C IN 36 HR...AND THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS ESTELLE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 151W.  GIVEN THESE LIMITING FACTORS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 24 HR OF STRENGTHENING...FOLLOWED BY\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER 72 HR...LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN AS ESTELLE MOVES OVER GRADUALLY\r\nWARMER SSTS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ITSELF.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL MODELS\r\nAND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SHIFOR.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON ESTELLE BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 14.5N 139.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 15.1N 141.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 143.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.7N 145.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 147.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 151.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 154.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N 157.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC BASIN\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL CROSSED CENTRAL AMERICA ON 18 AUGUST AND HAS\r\nBEEN MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT AS IT MOVED SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW DAYS.  SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW A PERSISTENT COLD\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT COULD BE AN INDICATION OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  ALTHOUGH QUIKSCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARE\r\nSOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE PRESENCE OF A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...IT IS DECIDED TO ISSUE DEPRESSION ADVISORIES AS A\r\nCOURSE OF LEAST REGRET.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COLD\r\nWATER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO\r\nNOT PROVIDE MUCH TRACK GUIDANCE AS A LOW/MID LEVEL LOW LOCATED\r\nABOUT TEN DEGREES WEST OF THE DEPRESSION TENDS TO BE THE DOMINATING\r\nFEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A NOT-TOO-FAST\r\nNORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HOURS FOLLOWING\r\nA COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL NHC91 MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 17.0N 110.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.1N 112.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.5N 113.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 115.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 117.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A\r\n23/0927Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT INNER-CORE OF CONVECTION\r\nWITH A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER...THAT WOULD YIELD A DATA T-NUMBER OF AT LEAST T2.5...OR\r\n35 KT. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 FROM TAFB. THEREFORE...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FRANK. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. THE DEEP BAM AND LBAR MODELS RECURVE\r\nFRANK ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 60H AND INTO THE U.S.\r\nDESERT SOUTHWEST BY 96H...WHILE THE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE LIMPING ALONG SLOWLY WESTWARD AS ALMOST A\r\nNON-ENTITY. THIS IS BECAUSE THOSE MODELS BARELY SHOW A CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH FRANK DUE TO THEIR KEYING MORE ON THE WEAKER\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 700 NMI DUE WEST OF FRANK. THE\r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nEXTREMES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES FRANK\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nPERSISTENCE...CLIPER...THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE 23/00Z ECMWF MODELS\r\n...AND SOME POSSIBLE BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER MUCH\r\nCOLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 24C...AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE\r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND BE FORCED MORE WESTWARD BY\r\nTHE STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF FRANK.\r\n\r\nFRANK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C AND HIGHER SSTS FOR AT LEAST\r\n36-48 HOURS. SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY ESTABLISHED\r\nAND IS IMPROVING...THEN STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR...WITH\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS FRANK MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 17.6N 111.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 112.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 114.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.1N 117.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.2N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-23 17:45:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n1045 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2004\r\n \r\nSINCE AFTER THE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS ISSUED...SUBSEQUENT\r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA INDICATE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFRANK IS STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. A BANDING\r\nEYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE THE\r\nPAST HOUR...AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULAR EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND\r\nMID-LEVELS WAS ALSO NOTED IN 23/0927Z AQUA AND 23/1459Z SSMI\r\nOVERPASSES. BASED ON THIS NEW INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/10.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY NUMBER 2 FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT FRANK HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND APPEARS TO BE IN A RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION PHASE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nACCORDINGLY. FRANK HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS REMAINING OVER WARM SSTS...SO\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THAT\r\nTIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...FRANK IS FORCAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATER WITH SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING\r\nIN 36-60 HOURS AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND INTENSITY FORECAST\r\n...THE WIND RADII WERE ALSO INCREASED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1645Z 17.8N 112.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 112.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N 114.1W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.1N 117.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.2N 121.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 126.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS AN EYE HAS BECOME\r\nAPPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB AT 18Z...3-HR\r\nAVERAGE ODT VALUES OF T3.8...OR 61 KT...AND THE EYE FEATURE THAT\r\nHAS PERSISTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THE 18Z OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  FRANK HAS REMAINED ON TRACK...ALBEIT\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO KEY IN MORE ON WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nNINE-E LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF FRANK. THAT\r\nCIRCULATION BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH FORCES\r\nFRANK NORTHWESTWARD ALMOST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN\r\nTHAT FRANK IS STRONGER AND AT LEAST THE SAME SIZE AS TD-9E...MY\r\nFEELING IS THAT FRANK WILL STEER TD-9E...AND NOT THE OTHER WAY\r\nAROUND. AS SUCH...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO\r\nTD-9E...OWING TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE DEPRESSION...AND ALSO\r\nDUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH.\r\nAFTER THAT...FRANK WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BY 72HOURS.\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nTO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO SLOW DOWN THAT PROCESS FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nAND THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL...TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN. BY 36 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS.  HOWEVER...AS WE SAW WITH HURRICANE DARBY EARLIER THIS\r\nYEAR...26C WATER IS NOT A BARRIER TO A HURRICANE REACHING MAJOR\r\nINTENSITY... AND FRANK COULD PEAK NEAR 100 KT BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36\r\nHOUR TIME PERIODS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...FRANK IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 18.4N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.2N 114.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.3N 117.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N 119.6W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N 126.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004\r\n\r\nBASED ON UNANIMOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM THE\r\nTHREE AGENCIES...KGWC...SAB...AND TAFB...THE RAPID STRENGTHENING\r\nNOTED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...\r\nABATED.  THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...\r\nSINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINALLY WARM ENOUGH\r\nFOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE EARLIER ONE BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE CURRENT TREND...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE\r\nFIRST 1-2 DAYS...WHICH PUTS FRANK OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.  \r\n\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE OF LIMITED USE FOR THIS FORECAST BECAUSE OF\r\nWHAT APPEARS TO BE AN UNREALISTIC INITIAL STATE THAT OVEREMPHASIZES\r\nTHE SIZE AND STRENGTH OF T.D. NINE-E...LOCATED A LITTLE LESS THAN\r\n600 N MI TO THE WEST OF FRANK.  ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME BINARY\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...THE MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO\r\nBE FORECASTING IT CORRECTLY AT THIS TIME.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS\r\nOF THE PERIOD...AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.  THIS IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 19.3N 113.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.4N 116.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.2N 117.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 119.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 122.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n \r\nIR IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANK HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE. THIS FEATURE\r\nWAS BETTER DEFINED ON EARLIER TRIMM DATA...BUT IT HAS BECOME VERY\r\nPOORLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST IR IMAGES. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST LIKELY...THIS WILL BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF FRANK\r\nSINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS OR LESS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS WHICH BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY BEYOND 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND FRANK CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IS ERODING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANK TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THEREAFTER...A NEW RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD.  IN ADDITION...SINCE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...\r\nIT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE RATHER FAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL OVER-EMPHASIZING\r\nTHE SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E IN THE ANALYSIS.       \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 20.0N 114.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 117.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N 126.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n \r\nIR IMAGES SHOW THAT FRANK HAS BEEN DISPLAYING AN INTERMITTENT EYE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AT 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE\r\nIS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...ACCORDING TO SST\r\nANALYSES IT HAS ALREADY CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM...WHICH WILL LEAD\r\nTO WEAKENING SHORTLY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN CHANGES IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nEARLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE HEADING AS OF\r\nLATE. FRANK IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT\r\n10 KNOTS. IN THE SHORT TERM...A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR YUMA\r\nARIZONA AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST JUST WEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE ERODED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORCING FRANK TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WEAKENING RIDGE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT\r\nOUT TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A NEW RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORCING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD.  ALSO...SINCE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND\r\nTHE CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT IN AROUND 48\r\nHOURS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW\r\nLEVEL FLOW.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GLOBAL MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE RATHER FAST...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ONLY THE UKMET\r\nAPPEARS TO BE CORRECTLY INITIALIZED STRENGTHWISE. THE BAMM SUITE\r\nFROM THE GFS BRINGS THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD...WITH THE LBAR\r\nSHOWING THE CYCLONE IN EASTERN COLORADO AT 120 HOURS. THIS IS NOT\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THIS PACKAGE. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGER SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nNINE-E IN THE ANALYSIS...THE DEPRESSION TO THE WEST SEEMS TO HAVE A\r\nSLIGHTLY LARGER LOW CLOUD SHIELD/CIRCULATION THAN FRANK ACCORDING\r\nTO SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROTH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 20.9N 114.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N 115.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.1N 117.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.4N 119.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 23.4N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 23.1N 124.7W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 22.6N 127.7W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 22.2N 130.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF FRANK IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON VISIBLE OR IR IMAGERY...\r\nTHERE DO APPEAR TO BE TWO SMALL BANDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE\r\nCENTER TO HELP IN ITS LOCATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND\r\nTHE LOSS OF THE EYE SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE IS WEAKENING...THUS\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KNOTS...MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND ITS CONSTRAINTS ON WEAKENING STORMS. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...ACCORDING TO\r\nSST ANALYSES THE CYCLONE IS NEARING THE 25C ISOTHERM AT THIS\r\nTIME...WHICH WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFRANK IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT\r\n9 KNOTS. THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR PHOENIX CONTINUES TO EJECT\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD....AND ITS ATTENDANT TROUGH WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IS SLOWLY LIFTING OUT AS WELL. THIS TROUGH SHOULD LIFT\r\nOUT COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND RIDGING SHOULD\r\nDEVELOP IN ITS WAKE BUILDING IN FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEAST\r\nMEXICO. EVEN IF THE RIDGING ALOFT IS DELAYED...THE WEAKENING STORM\r\nWILL EXHIBIT LESS CENTRAL CONVECTION IN 36-48 HOURS DUE TO THE COOL\r\nSSTS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WEST AND\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH\r\nBUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM THE WEST.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATION WITHIN 72\r\nHOURS...EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE APPEARING BETTER INITIALIZED WITH THE\r\nHURRICANE THAN SEEN ON PREVIOUS RUNS/DAYS. THE BAMM SUITE BASED ON\r\nTHE GFS STILL BRINGS THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD...BUT HAS TRENDED\r\nSOUTH FROM ITS SOLUTION EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO EMPHASIZE THE LARGER SIZE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E\r\nIN THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST...THE SYSTEM DOES HAVE THE LARGER\r\nENVELOPE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROTH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 21.3N 115.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.3N 116.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 23.1N 119.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 23.1N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 22.4N 127.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 21.9N 130.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA\r\nAND 77 KT FROM SAB. THESE HOWEVER ARE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nCONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS. SINCE THE TIME OF THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AND THE\r\nOVERALL APPEARANCE LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT A GENEROUS 65 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM\r\nAND SSTS WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST...ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL MODELS. IN ADDITION THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nIMPLY A FAIRLY RAPID WEAKENING RATE AS THEY DO NOT SHOW ANY CYCLONE\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFRANK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT\r\n8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nAND CALLS FOR A TURN MORE TO THE WEST AFTER 12-24 HOURS. THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WHICH INDICATES THAT THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... \r\nAND SHOULD LIFT OUT COMPLETELY WITHIN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS WITH A\r\nWEAK RIDGE BRIDGING ACROSS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AFTER THAT\r\nTIME. IN ADDITION THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD EXHIBIT LESS CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION AND BECOME STEERED MORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW LEVEL\r\nFLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nA 10 FT SEA REPORT FROM SHIP CALL SIGN 4XIS LOCATED 200 NM\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF FRANK WAS THE BASIS FOR EXPANDING\r\nTHE 12 FT SEA RADII IN THE N SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 22.0N 115.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 22.7N 116.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 118.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N 119.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 23.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...35 KT FROM AFWA AND 54 KT FROM AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\nTHEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. CORE CONVECTION\r\nHAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH REMAINING WEAK BANDING CONFINED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTED THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS COMPLETELY\r\nDISSIPATED. TROPICAL STORM FRANK SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST WEAKENING TO AN\r\nOPEN TROUGH BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT. A TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS IS EXPECTED. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN THIS FORECAST MOTION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A LIFTING TROUGH OVER BAJA.\r\nWATER VAPOR ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROUGH HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO\r\nLIFT NORTHEAST. THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nPROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 22.1N 116.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 117.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.8N 119.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 22.9N 120.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 23.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS IS CONFINED TO AN AREA JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT...BUT T\r\nNUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0 WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 45 KT.  AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE...PERHAPS A GENEROUS ONE GIVEN THE LOSS OF\r\nCONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT.  FRANK\r\nIS LOCATED OVER SST NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND CONTINUED STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTRACKING THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS INDICATES A MOTION JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7\r\nKNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF FRANK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nCONTINUES TO LIFT OUT...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BECOME\r\nESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  AS A RESULT...A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT\r\nLOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 22.0N 117.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 22.2N 118.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N 120.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 22.4N 121.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 123.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ABSENT...WITH ONLY MODERATE CONVECTION\r\nREMAINING JUST NORTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN\r\nTO 2.0 AND CI NUMBERS DOWN TO 3.0.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED\r\nON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VALUES AND IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. \r\nFRANK IS LOCATED OVER SST NEAR 24 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND CONTINUED\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS OR\r\nLESS...WHICH IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFRANK CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 7\r\nKNOTS.  THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 22.2N 118.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 22.4N 120.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 22.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nFRANK IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AND IS ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW LEVEL CLOUDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 35\r\nKT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND THESE VALUES ARE BASED\r\nON CONSTRAINTS FOR WEAKENING SYSTEMS...AND ARE ASSUMED TO BE LITTLE\r\nON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS.  THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. FRANK SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR FRANK TO REMAIN A REMNANT\r\nLOW THROUGH 72 HOURS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION THIS IS RATHER GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS BECOME\r\nESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION AND/OR THE REMNANT LOW IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 22.4N 118.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 22.6N 119.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 22.6N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 22.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NONEXISTENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS. AN EARLIER\r\n26/0200Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER FRANK REVEALED A FEW RESIDUAL 30 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON\r\nCONSTRAINTS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND AFWA AT 35 KT. BASED\r\nON THE CONTINUED LACK OF CONVECTION...AND THE FACT THAT FRANKS\r\nCURRENT STATE IS A FULLY EXPOSED WEAK SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KT. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST\r\nWITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES ASSOCIATED WITH AN ESTABLISHED RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nAND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AS A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nOVER THE FEW NEXT DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN 48...OR POSSIBLY FASTER.\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 22.4N 119.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.5N 120.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 121.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ABSENT...AND THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR\r\nNEARLY 24 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LITTLE\r\nOR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING TOO WEAK TO\r\nCLASSIFY WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/7 KT...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nIN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF MODERATE\r\nCONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FRANK.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 22.7N 120.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 121.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 22.9N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 23.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 845 NMI WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED TODAY. THE CONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T1.5...OR 25 KT\r\n...FROM TAFB...AND SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 25-KT WIND VECTORS FROM A\r\n23/1425Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THEREFORE...THE DISTURBANCE IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE IS 050/02.\r\nTD-9E HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...LIKELY\r\nDUE TO BINARY INTERACTION WITH STRENGTHENING HURRICANE FRANK\r\nLOCATED TO THE EAST. THE MODELS...UNFORTUNATELY...HAVE KEYED MORE\r\nON TD-9E THAN HURRICANE FRANK...EVEN THOUGH FRANK IS NOW CLEARLY\r\nTHE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH\r\nAT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nMEDIUM BAM AND GFS MODELS...SINCE THE GFS BETTER INITIALIZED THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND HURRICANE FRANK AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST OR\r\nEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT DRAWS CLOSER TO FRANK...\r\nAND THEN TURN NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT WHEN FRANK PASSES\r\nTO THE NORTH. BY 72 HOURS...FRANK SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COLDER\r\nWATER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TD-9E TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE DEPRESSION\r\nCOMES MORE UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH THAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH TD-9E HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD WARMER 27C SST WATER\r\n...THE CYCLONE IS STILL LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOME MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN ADDITION\r\n...THE WESTERLY OUTFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF HURRICANE FRANK SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY PUSH WESTWARD ACROSS THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS OR SO...AND\r\nTHAT MAY INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.\r\nTHEREFORE...ONLY WEAK INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 17.3N 123.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N 123.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N 122.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.2N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N 125.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.2N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N 136.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nOVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF TD-9E DURING THE EVENING AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATER AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF SOME MID-TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. IN\r\nADDITION...UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE FRANK\r\nAPPEARS TO BE APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST.  THESE\r\nFACTORS SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY\r\nCALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 36\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE STORM\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nAFTER MEANDERING DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...TD-9E NOW APPEARS TO\r\nBE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n360/04. TD-9E IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST IS FORECAST AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES WEST AND A MIDDLE LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IF THERE IS\r\nANY BINARY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE FRANK TO THE EAST...AND THIS\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS IN BETWEEN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 18.2N 123.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.3N 123.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.7N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.4N 126.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 129.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 132.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 136.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE\r\nDATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT\r\n25 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS IN NEAR MARGINALLY WARM WATERS\r\nAND THE SHEAR IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE....ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS IS PROBABLY CAUSED BY\r\nTHE NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN CIRCULATION OF\r\nSTRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK.    \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 18.8N 124.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO BE OFFSET FROM\r\nTHE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS NORTH AS INDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL IR\r\nIMAGES.  AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 ISSUED BY SAB SUPPORTS AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING AT 30 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY SLOW MOVING\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/03...JUST SOUTH OF A COL IN THE MID-\r\nLEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE DEPRESSION ON A\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nBUILDS TO ITS NORTH...LIMITING ITS NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE GENERALLY MORE SOUTHERLY WITH THE TRACK THAN THE NHC\r\nMODEL SUITE.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE\r\nRIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND STEER THE SYSTEM ON A WESTERLY\r\nTRACK AFTER 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS UNDER WEAK SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND 36 HOURS.  THIS INCREASED SHEAR\r\nCOUPLED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C SHOULD WEAKEN THE\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nCLARK\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 18.7N 124.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N 124.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.4N 125.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 19.6N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 19.6N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DEVELOPED A NEW AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT CONTINUES\r\nTO ENTRAIN DRY AIR ON ITS WESTERN EDGE.  THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE\r\nMAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06.  WITH THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY \r\nMOVING DUE WEST...IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE IS BUILDING TO ITS\r\nNORTH...PREVENTING ANY FURTHER NORTHWARD MOTION.  MUCH OF THE NHC\r\nGUIDANCE TAKES THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD INTO THE RIDGE WHILE THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WITH ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREEING ON A STRONG RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SENDS THE SYSTEM\r\nON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK AROUND 26/1800Z...AS THE SURFACE\r\nRIDGE BEARS DOWN ON THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALL BUT ONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...ALONG WITH THE GFDL...KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK ALSO\r\nKEEPS THE DEPRESSION IN WATERS COOLER THAN 26C.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nCLARK\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 18.6N 125.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N 126.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.6N 127.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 129.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N 131.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 17.8N 138.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 17.4N 142.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2004\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHEAR TENDENCY\r\nANALYSES BY THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSHEAR IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR 20 KT...AND\r\nINCREASING.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY AND THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...\r\n290/6.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADEWIND FLOW.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 18.9N 125.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 127.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 131.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 134.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS WARMING TOPS OF A\r\nRECENT BURST OF CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. DIURNAL OR TEMPORARY BURSTS OF CONVECTION\r\nWILL PROBABLY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANY\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nAS THE SHIPS...GFS...AND UKMET SUGGEST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...WITH A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT AT 7 KT...FURTHER INCREASING TO 10 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION AFTER\r\n24 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 19.3N 126.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 127.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 19.6N 129.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.6N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 19.6N 134.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT\r\nOCCURRED OVERNIGHT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH ONLY WEAK\r\nCONVECTION AND CIRRUS DEBRIS CURRENTLY REMAINING NORTH OF THE\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER SST LESS THAN 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND\r\nUNDER MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  AS A RESULT...\r\nDISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS.  THE MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AND ITS REMNANT LOW...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 19.5N 127.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.8N 130.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 19.9N 133.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 147.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER...AND LOW CLOUD\r\nSWIRLS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  AN ISOLATED\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION PERSISTS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND\r\nCIRRUS DEBRIS OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...INDICATIVE OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN AT 1.5.  AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nABOVE...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SST LESS THAN 25\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR LESS...CONSISTENT\r\nWITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 KNOTS.  THE\r\nLOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...WHICH WILL\r\nLEAD TO A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS\r\nREMNANT LOW...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS AND CANADIAN MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 19.7N 128.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.8N 129.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.9N 131.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 134.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LAST REMAINING CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nSHEARED FROM NINE-E AND THE SYSTEM IS ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM AFWA AND\r\n25 KT FROM TAFB. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 25 KT DEPRESSION FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW MORE CELLS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR NINE-E TO REMAIN A REMANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nAND GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SCALE OF THE CIRCULATION...THIS SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FIRMLY IN\r\nPLACE TO THE NORTH AND THE SYSTEM HAS RESPONDED BY MOVING DUE WEST\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND SHALLOW\r\nLAYER BAM MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 20.0N 129.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 130.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES\r\nDEPICT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AS A RATHER LARGE FULLY EXPOSED\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM AFWA. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KT. \r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 270/9. A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND AGREES\r\nWITH THE GFS...NOGAPS AND THE SHALLOW LAYER BETA ADVECTION MODEL.\r\n\r\nUPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nCONTINUE TO HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH DISSIPATION IN 12 HOURS OR\r\nLESS...THEN CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW OVER THE REMAINING\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 20.0N 130.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N 131.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 133.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N 136.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 138.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONLY ISOLATED\r\nSHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nABSENT FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS TOO WEAK TO\r\nCLASSIFY VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ON THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES AND COOL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF MODERATE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.  FURTHER\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 20.0N 131.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N 132.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N 135.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 137.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH A 25-KT\r\nSHIP REPORT AT 12Z...INDICATE THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 305 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS\r\nDEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE\r\nFIX. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT\r\nSLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 290/10. THE CENTER HAS\r\nBEEN REFORMING NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BURSTS THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS...SO ASCERTAINING BOTH CENTER PLACEMENT AND FORWARD MOTION\r\nHAS BEEN DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD MASS HAS BEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AWAY FROM MEXICO...THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE REACHES MUCH COLDER WATER. AFTER THAT...SIGNIFICANTLY AND A\r\nDECOUPLING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID-AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE DRIVEN MORE\r\nWESTWARD BY THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTD-10E HAS A LARGER THAN AVERAGE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY PRECLUDE\r\nANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT FROM OCCURRING.  HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION\r\nALREADY HAS GOOD BANDING FEATURES AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM LATER TODAY AND A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE IT MOVES OVER MUCH\r\nCOLDER SSTS BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT MUCH\r\nLOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER\r\nCOLD SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 14.4N 106.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.1N 108.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.1N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.0N 112.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 115.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.2N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH A BURST OF -85C CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND A RAGGED OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB.  BASED ON THE AFWA ESTIMATE AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE SINCE 18Z...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nGEORGETTE.  THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/12.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT GEORGETTE IS\r\nSOUTH OF A NARROW MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 28N-30N. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD\r\nWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TURN\r\nAFTER 36-48 HR WHILE THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND NHC91 MOVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HR...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE NORMAL BEHAVIOR OF EPAC CYCLONES WEAKENING OVER\r\nCOLDER WATER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  IT IS ALSO\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48 HR AND SLOWER\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SO THE INTENSITY OF GEORGETTE WILL BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY\r\nTHE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER 30C\r\nSSTS...WHICH DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK TO 26C BY 72 HR AND\r\nBELOW 25C AFTER 96 HR.  BASED ON THIS...GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO\r\nPEAK AT ABOUT 65 KT IN 48-72 HR AND THEN WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY\r\n120 HR.  THE STRENGTHENING BEST AGREES WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WHILE\r\nTHE WEAKENING BEST AGREES WITH THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 15.5N 107.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 17.6N 112.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.3N 114.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 18.6N 117.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 121.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 125.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 19.0N 130.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE BURST OF -85C TO -90C\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAS PERSISTED OVER AND NEAR THE CENTER OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM GEORGETTE OVER THE PAST 5 HOURS AS THE RAGGED BANDING FEATURE\r\nNOTED EARLIER IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS DISSIPATED. THE\r\nCENTRAL COLD COVER FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN A SCATTERING OF THE FIX\r\nPOSITIONS FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND THUS LESS\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. IN ANY EVENT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS ESSENTIALLY A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AGENCY ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SHOWS\r\nGOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT THE EASTERN\r\nQUADRANT WHERE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/14. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT GEORGETTE IS\r\nSOUTH OF A NARROW MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N-30N. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD\r\nWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND AS WAS THE CASE IN THE LAST MODEL CYCLE...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AFTER 36 HR WHILE THE\r\nVARIOUS BAM MODELS...LBAR...AND NHC91 MOVE THE CYCLONE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH A WESTWARD\r\nTURN AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY\r\nEXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR. THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS\r\nWIND SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES 15-20 KT OF SHEAR OVER GEORGETTE. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST\r\nWITH GEORGETTE ATTAINING HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS...AND A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 70 KT IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS ALONG THE LINES OF BOTH\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...GEORGETTE IS FORECAST\r\nTO TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND STEADILY WEAKEN. THE GFDL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WAS PREFERRED OVER THE SHIPS BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL ONLY WEAKENED GEORGETTE TO 55-60 KT BY DAY 5 DESPITE A TRACK\r\nOVER 24-25 DEG C WATERS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 16.4N 108.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.4N 110.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 18.2N 113.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION AND AN EARLIER 27/0411Z SSMI\r\nPASS DEPICT THAT GEORGETTE HAS TUCKED IN FURTHER BENEATH THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY, THE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS LETTING UP. CLOUDS TOPS REMAIN COLD AND THE SSMI IMAGE\r\nREVEALED A WELL DEFINED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER\r\nFROM THE NORTHWEST. THE SSMI PASS AND A RECENT TRMM PASS HAVE\r\nALSO HELPED TO INCREASE INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE AND MOTION.\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST\r\n3 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARED TO BE MOVING NEAR 13 KT.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND 35 FROM AFWA. BASED ON AN AGENCY CONSENSUS...IMPROVED\r\nBANDING ORGANIZATION...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nHAS SHIFTED UNDER THE CONVECTION...INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT. THE WIND RADII HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON\r\nA 27/0130Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE RECENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MID/UPPER\r\nRIDGE BUILDING IN NORTH OF GEORGETTE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. LARGE SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THE RIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 4...CREATING A\r\nWESTWARD STEERING MOTION. NOGAPS...THE CANADIAN...AND THE GFS DIG A\r\nMID LATITUDE TROUGH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON DAY 5 WHILE THE UKMET\r\nIS SLOWER WITH THIS FEATURE AND SHOWS LESS TROUGH AMPLITUDE. BASED\r\nON THE EARLIER TRMM AND SSMI PASSES...THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS BASED PRIMARILY OFF OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSINCE ALL INDICATIONS NOW POINT TO A DECREASE IN EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INCREASE TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THE GFDL RUN ACTUALLY INCREASES THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO 74 KT AT THE SAME PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME\r\nFRAME...GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN...DROPPING BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.\r\nTHIS TREND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS...BUT CLOSER TO THE\r\nGFDL BEYOND DAY 4.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 17.6N 110.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 18.4N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 19.8N 117.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 119.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 132.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nA 0902Z AQUA OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE REMAINS\r\nEXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTION...AS ANALYSES\r\nFROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\n15-20 KT OF EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES QUITE STRONG...WITH TOPS TO -88C.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND THE EXPOSED CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15.  GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST THROUGH 96 HR.  AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.  THE\r\nOVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN WETSWARD DURING THE\r\nFIRST 96 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. \r\nAFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS AND THE BAM MODELS INDICATE THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ON THE BASIS THAT A\r\nWEAKENING GEORGETTE WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR...WHICH LEAVES GEORGETTE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM FROM THE 29C SSTS IT IS\r\nCURRENTLY OVER TO 26C IN ABOUT 24 HR AND COLDER THAN 25C AFTER 48\r\nHR.  BASED ON THIS AND THE FORECAST DECREASE IN SHEAR...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GEORGETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT\r\nABOUT 24 HR AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 18.4N 111.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.2N 113.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N 116.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.2N 118.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 20.4N 120.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nGEORGETTE IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN CONTINUE TO INDICATE 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/15.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 96 HR.  AFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W MAY WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT. \r\nTHE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE TO TURN WESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 96 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\nAFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS AND THE BAM MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nCALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ON THE BASIS THAT A WEAKENING GEORGETTE\r\nWILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE WINDOW FOR GEORGETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS STARTING TO CLOSE...AS THE\r\nSTORM IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN THIS MORNING AND IT IS RUNNING OUT OF\r\nWARM WATER.  BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL FORECAST 12-24 HR MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT BOTH NOW KEEP GEORGETTE BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG\r\nTHESE LINES IN CASE ONE LAST BIG CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURS TONIGHT. \r\nTHE STORM SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HR AND PASS\r\nOVER WATER COLDER THAN 24C AFTER 96 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GEORGETTE COULD DISSIPATE FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 18.6N 113.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.3N 115.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 19.8N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 20.1N 120.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.3N 122.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 20.5N 134.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS\r\nALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED DESPITE A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE \r\nCENTER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW INDICATE 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF GEORGETTE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. ACTUAL\r\nDATA T NUMBERS WERE 0.5 TO 1.0 T NUMBERS LOWER...MORE INDICATIVE OF\r\nA WEAKER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT\r\nBASED ON THIS AND THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  GEORGETTE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD NEAR 135W\r\nIN THE 96-120 HR TIMEFRAME WILL HAVE LESS IMPACT ON THE RIDGE THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THUS THE OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE GEORGETTE\r\nTO TURN WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THESE LINES AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGUNA AND CONU ENSEMBLES. IN ADDITION THE FORECAST KEEPS THE DUE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST ON THE BASIS THAT A WEAKENING\r\nGEORGETTE WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GEORGETTE TO MAINTAIN A STEADY\r\nSTATE THROUGH 24-36 HOURS THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES COOLER\r\nWATER.  THIS IS ALONG THE LINES OF SHIPS AND WEAKER THAN THE GFDL\r\nWHICH INITIALIZES WITH A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM. IT IS INTERESTING\r\nTHAT PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM SHIPS UNDERESTIMATED THE\r\nSHEAR THAT IS OCCURRING TONIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GEORGETTE\r\nCOULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 18.8N 115.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N 117.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 119.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 123.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n\r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ENHANCED BD CURVE ANIMATION DEPICT\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS INTERMITTENT DEEP\r\nBURSTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. OVERALL...CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 280 AT 10 KT. DYNAMICAL AND BETA\r\nSHALLOW AND MID LAYER MODELS AGREE WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST\r\nMOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT\r\nPERIOD...HOWEVER... THE SHALLOW BETA...GFS AND THE CANADIAN\r\nINDICATE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SITUATED NEAR 136W BY THE 72\r\nHOUR PERIOD. THE NOGAPS TRACKER IS SIMILAR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMODELS...BUT JUST A BIT SLOWER IN RESPONDING TO THE TROUGH\r\nINFLUENCE. THE UKMET MODEL HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A WEAKER\r\nRIDGE AND HAS BEEN WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT\r\nWILL DEPICT A SUBTLE SHIFT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...JUST AS INDICATED BY CONU.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A RELATIVELY STEADY\r\nINTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. GEORGETTE COULD EVEN\r\nDISSIPATE FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE 20 KT\r\nSHEAR PERSISTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 18.7N 115.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 18.8N 117.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 119.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 19.3N 121.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.6N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 20.0N 127.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N 131.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GEORGETTE LOOKED QUITE RAGGED FOR MUCH\r\nOF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DEEP THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE\r\nREDEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0 AND GIVEN\r\nTHE RECENT FLARE UP OF CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALTHOUGH MOST\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES SLOW GEORGETTE DOWN FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS AND JOG IT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS POSSIBLY IN\r\nRESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W...WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED TIGHTLY\r\nDURING THE FIRST 48-72 HOURS BUT DIVERGES THEREAFTER PRIMARILY DUE\r\nTO DISAGREEMENTS IN FORECAST INTENSITY. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE\r\nFASTEST AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND THIS\r\nSEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES\r\nSHALLOWER OVER THE COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST AND IS STEERED BY\r\nSTRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 30N/31N.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GEORGETTE WILL CROSS\r\nOVER THE 26C ISOTHERM AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT WHICH POINT THE\r\nWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS. SINCE THE GFDL KEEPS THE STORM ON A MORE\r\nSOUTHERN TRACK...IT BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT IN 36 HOURS\r\nBUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 18.8N 117.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.9N 118.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N 122.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nA SOLID CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. CLOUD\r\nTOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD...APPROXIMATELY -80C...AND VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST BENEATH THESE\r\nCLOUDS. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.0...AND\r\n3.5 FROM SAB....SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nGEORGETTE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED AS EXPECTED AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 280/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nTHEREAFTER...GEORGETTE WILL PROBABLY HAVE SUCCUMBED TO THE COLDER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ASSOCIATED WEAKENING SHOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nMOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS\r\n...AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND MOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48\r\nHOURS. ONLY THE UKMET DIFFERS AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD PATH WITH QUICKER WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nGEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SOON THEREAFTER.\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nBUT THIS SEEMS MOOT SINCE IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE SYSTEM TO\r\nMAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE COLDER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IRONICALLY ENDS\r\nUP BEING CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY BETWEEN 3-5 DAYS. DISSIPATION\r\nIS PROBABLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AT WHICH TIME THE GFS SHOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMING ELONGATED AND DIFFUSE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 18.9N 117.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 119.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.3N 120.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 19.7N 122.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 124.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 20.5N 133.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004\r\n \r\nANOTHER BURST OF COLD CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -85C  \r\nHAS OCCURRED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF GEORGETTE. THIS HAS BEEN\r\nTHE CASE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM HAS ENDURED MODEST\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR. CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE WILL\r\nHAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...NOGAPS AND CONY ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nMOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET...NHC91 AND THE\r\nBAM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM JUST AFTER 12 HOURS\r\nWITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. AFTER 36\r\nHOURS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 24C WATERS AND THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE\r\nMORE PRONOUNCED WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY 72 HOURS...AND A\r\nREMNANT LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS THE\r\nSYSTEM SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE GFDL AS THE FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH\r\nOF THE GFDL OVER COOLER WATERS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 19.1N 118.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.7N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 123.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 20.5N 130.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 20.6N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTANT BURSTS OF CONVECTION \r\nNEAR THE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM HAS ENDURED EASTERLY SHEAR. CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 45 KT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE\r\nWILL HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...NOGAPS AND CONY ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nMOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET...NHC91 AND THE\r\nBAM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME.\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 24C WATERS AND THE WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND A REMNANT LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 19.2N 120.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 121.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.9N 123.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 125.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N 127.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 131.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 20.8N 136.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG CLUSTER OF CONVECTION BUT\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCOLDEST CLOUD TOPS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\n3.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA...BUT HAVE FALLEN TO 2.5 FROM SAB. GIVEN\r\nTHAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF GEORGETTE\r\nSINCE THE LAST PACKAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT\r\nUNTIL THERE IS MORE CONSENSUS FOR BRINGING IT DOWN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. THIS IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT ONLY BECAUSE A SLIGHT REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER WAS\r\nREQUIRED. REGARDLESS...GEORGETTE HAS BEEN ON TRACK AND SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST BY 24-48 HOURS ONCE THE CONVECTION\r\nDISSIPATES AND THE LEFTOVER SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS STEERED BY LOWER\r\nLEVEL FLOW. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST\r\n48 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN WHICH JOGS GEORGETTE ABOUT 1 OR 2\r\nDEGREES FARTHER SOUTH. AFTER 48 HOURS THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE BUT\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION DURING\r\nDISSIPATION...FOLLOWING CLOSELY TO THE GFS AND PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF GEORGETTE PASSED ABOUT 80 NM NORTH OF A BUOY WHICH IS\r\nREPORTING A SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 26C. THE STORM IS CURRENTLY\r\nPARALLELING THE STRONGEST SST GRADIENT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nGRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AROUND 24-25C THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND BOTH WEIGH HEAVILY ON\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFS...THIS MODEL IS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR\r\nDISSIPATING THE SYSTEM WITHIN 72 HOURS WITH A REMNANT LOW BEYOND 4\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 19.3N 120.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.6N 121.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.9N 123.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.2N 125.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.5N 132.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GEORGETTE NOW\r\nBECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED...CENTERED ABOUT 35 NM TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE NOW\r\nBEGUN TO WARM AND WEAKENING MAY BE COMMENCING. CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0\r\nSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE IS CLEARER TO IDENTIFY...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT 280/10. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS\r\nWEAKENING TREND. THEREAFTER...THE DISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE\r\nSTEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD TRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nLOW LEVEL RIDGE. THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES AFTER THAT...PROBABLY\r\nDUE TO DISAGREEMENTS ON HOW FAST THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nGEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 25C...AND WILL\r\nCONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. IN ADDITION...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIR\r\nMASS...HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WEST OF\r\n125W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RATHER GENEROUS GIVEN THE\r\nDETERIORATING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nBALANCES THIS BY CALLING FOR IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. GEORGETTE SHOULD\r\nDISSIPATE INTO A REMANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BASED PRIMARILY ON\r\nTHE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 19.7N 121.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.9N 123.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.2N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 127.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.7N 129.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 21.0N 133.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 21.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004\r\n \r\nLAST VISIBLE IMAGES BEFORE SUNSET SHOWED A COMPLETELY EXPOSED \r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED 45 NM TO THE EAST OF A WEAKENING\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE IN THE 45-55 KT RANGE...DATA T\r\nNUMBERS FROM ALL THE SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 35 KT AND THIS\r\nIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nDISSIPATING CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED ON AN ACCELERATING WESTWARD\r\nTRACK ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE SIMPLER BAM\r\nMODELS...NHC91 AND LBAR KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST...WHICH IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE SHALLOW NATURE\r\nOF THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nGEORGETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 24C-25C AND\r\nWILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER WATER BETWEEN 23-24C THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS\r\nAND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS IS FASTER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 19.9N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N 124.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 20.4N 126.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 20.7N 128.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE T NUMBER INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB OR 30 KTS.  ALSO...THE LATEST QUICK SCAT WIND\r\nESTIMATES SHOW THAT THERE IS ONLY ONE 35 KNOT OBSERVATION IN A\r\nLARGE FIELD OF 30 KNOT WINDS.  THUS...GEORGETTE IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nDEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS\r\nSHEARED WITH ALL OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION WEST OF THE EXPOSED\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS...DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND BECOMES A\r\nREMNANT LOW. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 20.1N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 20.3N 125.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 20.6N 127.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 20.8N 129.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 21.0N 131.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 21.0N 136.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N 140.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 1.0\r\nNOW THAT ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED. THEREFORE...GEORGETTE\r\nHAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25\r\nKT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF INTERMITTENT BURSTS\r\nOF CONVECTION...COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...A STABLE AIR MASS\r\nTO THE WEST...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THE REMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING TO\r\nTHE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AND COULD MAINTAIN AN\r\nIDENTIFIABLE CIRCULATION THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AS DISSIPATING\r\nEAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES OFTEN DO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 20.1N 124.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 20.3N 126.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 128.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.7N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 20.8N 132.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.8N 137.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 20.8N 141.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-08-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REFLECT THIS WITH A CONSENSUS 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. AFWA\r\nCLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM WITH A 1.5 BASED ON THE PATTERN T...BUT THE\r\nDATA T NUMBER WAS ALSO A 2.0. IN ADDITION...QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY DATA\r\nAND MICROWAVE IMAGERY PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR A SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION BOUNDED BY CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION BEGINS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 300/6. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING\r\nSLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND IS ANCHORED BY AN\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT AN ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTHEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND IS STEERED BY STRONGER DEEP-LAYERED FLOW. IN THE 4 TO 5\r\nDAY RANGE...A LONGWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE TO ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND POTENTIALLY MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...BUT THIS IS VERY RELIANT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AT\r\nTHAT TIME. THE NOGAPS FAVORS A STRONG TROUGH AND THE UKMET FAVORS A\r\nSHALLOW TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS SOLUTION\r\nWHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE DEPRESSION\r\nTO 60 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN MOVING OVER WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES BELOW 26C AFTER 72 HOURS SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS SHOULD PLAY A CRITICAL PART IN\r\nHOW STRONG THE SYSTEM WILL ULTIMATELY BECOME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 12.5N 103.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 13.0N 104.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 13.9N 106.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 14.8N 108.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 16.0N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 119.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-08-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 30 2004\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN CONVECTION IS EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE\r\nLATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS APPROXIMATELY 30 KTS...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/12. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE CYCLONE DUE NORTH WHEREAS NOGAPS\r\nTAKES A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK. IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONU GUIDANCE TREND WHICH MOVES THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF DUE NORTH AS THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO\r\n65 KTS BY 72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES BELOW 26C. THE OTHER CRITICAL COMPONENT IS THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS BELOW 10 KTS BUT\r\nTHIS SHEAR DOES INCREASE BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THIS COMBINATION OF THE\r\nCOOLER SSTS AND INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE LATER FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/STEWART/JARVINEN\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 13.5N 105.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 14.3N 106.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 15.5N 109.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 16.5N 111.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N 116.6W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N 120.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-08-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nENHANCED BD INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER SSMI AND AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES DEPICT THAT ELEVEN-E HAS SIGNIFICANTLY BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMAGERY REVEALS WELL\r\nDEVELOPED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TUCKED BENEATH THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES IS 35 KT.\r\nTHE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 53 KT AT 993 MB. BASED ON THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE MICROWAVE PASSES...THE TROPICAL STORMS BEST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS. INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300 AT 10 KT. TROPICAL STORM HOWARD\r\nIS MOVING WITHING THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND BAJA. A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HOWARD TO\r\nREDUCE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BEGIN A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE\r\nUKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY 3...BOTH\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND THE GFS SHOW LESS OF A RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING\r\nRIDGE WITH A SLOW NORTHWEST DRIFT AFTER DAY 4. THE GFDL...UKMET AND\r\nTHE NAVY GFDN REVEAL A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS\r\nWHICH AGGRESSIVELY BEGINS TO ERODE THE RIDGE CREATING AN ABRUPT\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 48...THEN IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF\r\nCONU TO CONFORM WITH A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SEA SURFACE IS WARM AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS\r\nWITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY\r\n4...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nCOMMENCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 14.0N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 14.8N 107.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.9N 109.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.8N 111.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.6N 113.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 19.3N 116.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 23.0N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n\r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW HOWARD BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED WITH BANDING FEATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND\r\nSOUTHERN QUADRANTS.  THE 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 2.5 FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT.  HOWARD SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR\r\nAT LEAST 72 HOURS...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE\r\nSHIPS OR GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 10 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT\r\nPROBLEMATIC IN THAT THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. \r\nHOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA.  FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE HOWARD ON A WNW TRACK FOLLOWING THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  AFTERWARDS THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE\r\nUKMET AND GFDL WEAKENING THE RIDGE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH\r\nWHICH ALLOWS HOWARD TO FOLLOW A  NORTHERLY TRACK...ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD AND TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES BETWEEN\r\nTHESE OPTIONS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 14.5N 107.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 16.3N 110.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 17.1N 112.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 17.8N 114.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HOWARD IS BECOMING A HEALTHY TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW ALOFT.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS NOW GIVE A T3.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA WHICH CORRESPOND\r\nTO 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AND HOWARD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...AND TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLER WATERS MAY CAUSE HOWARD TO\r\nWEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 11 KT. A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY\r\nSITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nPRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. AS SEEN EARLIER\r\nTODAY...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH\r\nTHE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS FORECASTING HOWARD ON A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOWING A GENERALLY \r\nWESTWARD TRACK. THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF GUNA AND\r\nCONU.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nCONSENSUS.      \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 14.8N 108.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 15.7N 110.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.6N 112.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 114.4W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.3N 116.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 31 2004\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/10 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBEFORE.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nDIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE UKMET MODEL FORECASTING\r\nHOWARD ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...AND THE GFS SHOWING A GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH MINOR\r\nADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION.  IT IS ALSO NEAR THE CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T3.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH PLUSES\r\nON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SUGGESTING THAT THE WIND SPEED COULD\r\nBE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE 55 KTS.  BECAUSE OF THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nBURST IN CONVECTION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE APPEARANCE OF\r\nA CDO TYPE PATTERN I AM MAKING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 60 KTS. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL HAS TAKEN A DRAMATIC JUMP IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nIT IS INDICATING AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nBASED UPON 7 OF 7 CONDITIONS SATISFIED.  THESE INCLUDE LOW\r\nSHEAR...4 KTS...SSTS OF 30 DEG C AND VERY COLD CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES.  I AM GOING TO GO OUT ON A LIMB AND GO WITH THE SHIPS\r\nON THIS...MAKING HOWARD A HURRICANE IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AND A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 15.2N 108.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 15.9N 110.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.2N 114.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 21.6N 120.9W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  HOWARD\r\nIS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. THIS BODES SOMEWHAT WELL FOR THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION THAT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DETERMINED IN THE LAST\r\nFORECAST CYCLE.  HOWEVER...IN THIS CYCLE...SHIPS IS NOT AS\r\nAGRESSIVE...ONLY 5 OF 7 CONDITIONS ARE SATISFIED. EARLIER MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE AND AN EYE MAY BEGIN TO FORM\r\nSOON.  INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS SHOW ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BASED ON ALL THIS...I AM STILL GOING\r\nTO CONTINUE TO FORECAST HOWARD TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...HOWARD WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS\r\n...STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP BEGIN THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/11 KT. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE\r\nSAME.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WHICH HAS BEEN PRIMARILY\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING HOWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nDIFFER CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS WITH THE UKMET MODEL NOW\r\nFORECASTING HOWARD TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER BAJA AND THE\r\nGFS SHOWING A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE REMAINING\r\nMODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO NEAR THE\r\nNAVY NOGAPS MODEL.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 15.9N 110.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.7N 113.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N 115.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N 117.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N 119.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 22.7N 120.8W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 24.4N 121.8W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT...AND THE WIND\r\nSPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 70 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nREMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT ONLY GOES TO 87 KT AT\r\n36 HOURS.  BY 72 HOURS...HOWARD IS FORECAST TO HAVE CROSSED THE 26\r\nDEG C SST ISOTHERM SO WEAKENING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RECURVES HOWARD\r\nSHARPLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE RECURVATURE\r\nSCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE BY 96-120 HOURS\r\nTHIS SHOULD BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT WILL RESPOND MORE TO\r\nSTEERING BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 16.6N 111.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.4N 112.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.4N 114.8W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 117.7W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 24.5N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n\r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED...WITH A FAIRLY\r\nSYMMETRIC CDO HAVING DEVELOPED AND THE EYE BECOMING APPARENT ON THE\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.  HOWARD\r\nSHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 36-48 HOURS SO\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWARD\r\nWILL BE CROSSING THE 26 DEG SST ISOTHERM IN AROUND 48 HOURS...AND\r\nTHEREFORE WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT THAT TIME.  IF\r\nHOWARD MOVES FASTER THAN FORECAST...IT WOULD REACH THE COOLER\r\nWATERS SOONER...AND THEREFORE WEAKEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nIN 1-2 DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL HIGH JUST TO THE WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND INTO CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RESPONDS\r\nTO THIS BY RECURVING HOWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA WITHIN THE 5-DAY\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER NONE OF THE OTHER MULTI-LEVEL DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SHOW RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES\r\nTHAT...ASIDE FROM A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION...HOWARD WILL NOT\r\nRESPOND SIGNIFICANTLY TO THIS TROUGH.  EARLIER INFRARED-ONLY FIXES\r\nWERE A LITTLE TOO FAR TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SO SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS\r\nWERE MADE TO THE TRACK.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 16.8N 112.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.6N 113.6W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 115.2W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.3N 116.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 117.7W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 24.5N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 01 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 90 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT AND THE\r\nCONVECTION IS ALSO NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS EARLIER...THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE SSTS WILL\r\nBE WARM FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nSEEMS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...HOWARD WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST\r\nISOTHERM...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE NOW 295/8.  HOWARD IS BUMPING UP AGAINST A MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS HIGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.  THERE IS WIDE DIVERGENCE IN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE UKMET RECURVING HOWARD SHARPLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY DOES NOT RESPOND SO MUCH TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. \r\nTAKING A MIDDLE ROUTE IS THE GFDL WHICH BENDS THE TRACK TO THE\r\nNORTH AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE RESPONSE OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IT CAN\r\nMAINTAIN AS SSTS DECREASE.  BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH\r\nMAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. \r\nGIVEN THE EXTREME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE\r\nTRACK FORECAST. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 17.0N 112.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 17.6N 113.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N 115.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 26.0N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A BEAUTIFUL PIN HOLE EYE HAS APPEARED\r\nAND IS RINGED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 102 KT\r\nFROM TAFB. ALSO...THE THREE HOURLY AVERAGED ODT VALUE IS 5.2 FROM\r\nTAFB. WITHOUT A DOUBT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO BE IN\r\nA RAPID DEEPENING PROCESS.   WE HAVE PROBABLY BEEN SLIGHTLY BEHIND\r\nON OUR OFFICIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SET AT 100 KTS.  THIS MAKES HOWARD A\r\nCATEGORY 3 ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD FOR\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE HOWARD BEGINS\r\nTO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  WEAKENING BEGINS AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8.  HOWARD CONTINUES TO PUSH\r\nAGAINST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.  WIDE\r\nDIVERGENCE CONTINUES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OUT TO 48 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH WHERE IT WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR DAY FIVE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 17.6N 113.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.2N 114.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N 115.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 116.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 117.2W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 26.2N 119.2W    35 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n\r\nHOWARD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH VERY COLD CONVECTION\r\nSURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE NOW 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT.  THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE EYE APPEARS A\r\nLITTLE LARGER NOW...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE\r\nLEVELLING OFF.  BY 24 HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE\r\nHURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BY 72\r\nHOURS...HOWARD SHOULD BE OVER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS AND\r\nWEAKENING RAPIDLY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NW AROUND 8 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD IS COLLAPSING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL THAT RECURVES HOWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.  THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHIS AS WELL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 18.2N 113.6W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.8N 114.4W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N 116.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.5N 118.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N 118.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE\r\nHAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SSM/I\r\nPASS REVEALED A PARTIAL COLLAPSE OF THE EYE WALL OVER THE NE\r\nQUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM AFWA\r\nAND SAB HAVE DROPPED TO 102 KT INDICATIVE OF THE TEMPORARY WARMING\r\nOF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 120 KT. BY 24\r\nHOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOLING\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWARD SHOULD BE OVER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 AT 8 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO\r\nBE THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A RECURVE SCENARIO DUE TO THIS TROUGH. \r\nTHE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH\r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 18.6N 114.3W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 116.3W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N 117.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 28.0N 119.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 02 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE\r\nHAVE CONTINUED TO WARM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127\r\nKT FROM TAFB...115 KT FROM SAB AND 90 KT AFWA.  HOWEVER...AS NOTED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE T NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN.  I THINK\r\nTHAT HOWARD PEAKED AT ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS AGO\r\nAND WILL NOW BEGIN OR CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE TREND WILL\r\nSTART SLOWLY BECAUSE SEVERAL RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE 26 DEGREE SST CONTOUR IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE NW OF THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL SST ANALYSIS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS HOWARD RAPIDLY BUT\r\nUSES THE NCEP GLOBAL SSTS FOR ITS SST POTENTIAL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN IT AS FAST IN THE EARLY\r\nFORECAST PERIODS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 310 AT 8 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO\r\nBE THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A RECURVE SCENARIO DUE TO THIS TROUGH.\r\nTHE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH\r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII AND 12 FOOT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED UPON SHIP\r\nOBSERVATIONS...IN PARTICULAR SHIP A8CI9. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 19.1N 114.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.8N 115.8W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.2N 117.6W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 25.7N 118.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE\r\nHAVE NOW COOLED...THUS...SLOWING THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KTS FOR TAFB AND AIR FORCE\r\nGLOBAL AND 115 KTS FOR SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105\r\nKTS. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS A WEAKENING TREND AS WELL AS SHIPS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/7 KT.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS\r\nMUCH THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES.  THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET...NOW AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS...OF\r\nCOURSE...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER PERIOD FORECAST POSITIONS\r\nAMONG THE MODELS.  FOR THAT REASON THE CONCENSUS IS RELIED ON\r\nHEAVILY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 19.4N 115.2W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 116.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N 116.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.5N 117.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.7N 118.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 25.7N 118.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 28.0N 119.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n\r\nCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KT.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT.  POWERFUL HOWARD HAS BEEN SLOW\r\nTO WEAKEN...BUT COOLER WATERS ARE AHEAD SO A GRADUAL DECLINE IS\r\nINEVITABLE.  THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nFURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS ERRATIC MOTION...SO THE SYSTEM IS MERELY HELD\r\nSTATIONARY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.3N 115.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.9N 116.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N 117.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.4N 118.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 26.2N 118.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 27.5N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 27.5N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 5.0... AND 4.5 FROM\r\nAIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL\r\nWARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND THE LOSS OF THE EYE OVER THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. A SHARP\r\nGRADIENT OF DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXISTS ALONG THE\r\nTRACK OF HOWARD AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS HOWARD APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED\r\nAT 12 KT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH LONGER-TERM MOTION NOW ON THE\r\nORDER OF 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT. TRACK REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING STEERING FLOW IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF HOWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE\r\nSHALLOW AND THEREFORE MORE INFLUENCED BY LOWER-LEVEL STEERING. A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DECREASES SPEED TO NEARLY STATIONARY BY\r\n72 HOURS WITH ERRATIC MOTION INDICATED AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE THE REMNANT LOW IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 21.4N 116.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.5N 116.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N 117.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 25.0N 118.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 119.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 28.0N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 28.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004\r\n \r\nCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 5.0... AND 4.0 FROM\r\nAIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE CONTINUED WARMING OF\r\nCLOUD TOPS COUPLED WITH THE ARTIFICIALLY HIGH CONSTRAINTS PLACED ON\r\nTHE DVORAK TECHNIQUE FOR WEAKENING EAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS...IS THE\r\nBASIS FOR DECREASOMG THE INTITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 75 KT ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. HOWARD HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH LAST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING A FAIRLY\r\nBROAD AREA OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE\r\nSYSTEM CENTER FROM THE WEST.  THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED\r\nRAPID WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...WITH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING DOMINATING THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AS BOTH INDICATE A WNW MOTION AT LESS THAN 5 KT BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW CENTER DRIFTS WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 22.1N 116.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 23.4N 117.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 24.8N 118.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 27.5N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.8N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 28.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Howard","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nCURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 4.5... AND 4.0 FROM\r\nAIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.   THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 65 KT. HOWARD HAS MOVED OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND IS ENTRAINING DRYER STABLE AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS\r\nAS INDICATED BY THE STRATUS LAYER CLOUDS WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM.\r\nBOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET SOLUTION FOR THE FIRST 36\r\nHOURS...WHICH GRADUALLY SLOWS DOWN THE SYSTEM...AND THEN CURVES THE\r\nSYSTEM SLOWLY OFF TOWARD THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 23.5N 116.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 25.0N 116.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 26.4N 117.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 27.4N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 27.7N 118.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 27.8N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 28.1N 120.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 28.4N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n\r\nEARLIER AMSU-B AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES AT 04/1029Z AND 04/1200Z\r\nRESPECTIVELY DEPICTED THAT HOWARD HAD DECOUPLED SOUTH OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LAST NIGHT. BASED ON THESE FIXES...THE TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINED UNCHANGED...\r\nHOWEVER...FIX POSITIONS WHERE PLACED IN THE CONVECTION. BASED SOLEY\r\nON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 60 KT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT\r\nHOWARD HAS MOVED OVER A COOL TONGUE OF SEAS SURFACE TEMPS LESS THAN\r\n24 DEGREES CELSIUS. WATER VAPOR REVEALS UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL...FURTHER JUSTIFYING A WEAKENING TREND.\r\nSHIPS DISSIPATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...AND THE GFDL\r\nMODEL DECREASES THE INTENSITY TO 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE LOW DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS\r\nNOW DEPICT A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...WITH DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...WHICH MAINTAINS\r\nA STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 4...IS THE OUTLIER WITH A\r\nNORTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nAGREES WITH THE GUNA AND CONU.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 23.7N 117.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 24.7N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 25.6N 118.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 26.3N 119.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 26.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 26.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 26.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EARLIER TRMM AND AMSU-B\r\nMICROWAVE ANALYSIS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS IN\r\nFACT BECOME FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.\r\nDVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DOWN TO 45 KT WHILE THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 65 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 50 KT. HOWARD CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND WATER VAPOR\r\nDEPICTS UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. SHIPS DISSIPATES\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A\r\nDECREASE TO 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW DISSIPATING IN 72 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE GUNA AND\r\nCONU.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 24.2N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 25.0N 119.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 120.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 25.9N 121.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 26.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004\r\n\r\nHOWARD CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR...EXPOSING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ANY CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A GENEROUS 35 KT BASED ON AN\r\nEARLIER 1500 UTC SSMI PASS THAT SHOWED NO WINDS ABOVE 30 KT AND\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES NEAR 45 KT.  THE STORM IS MOVING OVER WATERS\r\nCOOLER THAN 23C WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN HOWARD\r\nRAPIDLY WITH DISSIPATION INTO A REMNANT LOW LIKELY TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AROUND 8 KT. \r\nTHERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION BENDING TO THE LEFT WITH\r\nTIME AS HOWARD WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nCONU.  MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HOWARD IS BEING\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... CONTRIBUTING TO AN\r\nENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE DESERT REGIONS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 24.8N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 25.4N 119.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 25.9N 120.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.0N 122.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Howard","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB.  RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 30\r\nKT.  THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES NEAR 22 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG.  THEREFORE...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT\r\nLIKELY TO REDEVELOP AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8\r\nKNOTS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND\r\nTHAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DISSPATE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 25.3N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 26.0N 119.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N 121.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 26.8N 122.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 26.8N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Howard","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 2004\r\n \r\nHOWARD HAS BEEN ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 18 HOURS AND\r\nDVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE 1.0 FROM AFWA AND SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB.\r\nTHEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT. THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO TRACK OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS...AND BENEATH STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  DISSIPATION OF\r\nHOWARD'S REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN 48 HOURS BASED ON THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST OR 325/5 KT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\nREDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nREMANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nCONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD. FURTHER\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 25.7N 119.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 26.3N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 26.7N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 26.7N 121.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\n1.5/1.5...AND A 25 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. A 0553 UTC\r\nAMSU PASS AS WELL AS A 0429 UTC SSMI PASS OVER THIS SYSTEM\r\nINDICATED A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER WITH A\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FOUND ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION. INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE 0000 UTC CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nINCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION ATTEMPTING TO TUCK BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN 48\r\nHOURS AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER IT...BEGINS TO LESSEN.\r\nONLY HINDERING FACTOR BY THAT TIME WILL BE THE PROXIMITY OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO SUB 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nNOTED ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND\r\n5. SHIPS ACCOUNTS FOR THE COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nLEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST DAYS THREE AND FOUR BEFORE\r\nWEAKENING THE SYSTEM ON DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS THROUGH DAY THREE AND IS WEAKER THEREAFTER\r\nDUE TO INCREASINGLY COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nTRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WNW MOTION AT 10 KT AS A MIDDLE\r\nLEVEL RIDGE N OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nLIKELY RESULT IN A STEERING FLOW MORE DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE N OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION DUE WEST THROUGH DAY FIVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 15.2N 110.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N 112.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.8N 116.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.2N 118.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N 123.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 135.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE BASIC STRUCTURE\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR AND JUST UNDERNEATH THE NORTHEAST\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25\r\nTO 35 KT FROM THE THREE AGENCIES.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM LATE LAST\r\nNIGHT SUGGESTED PEAK WINDS WERE AT LEAST 30 KT AND SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO THAT VALUE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AND MORNING MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 270/8.  SYNOPTIC STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED\r\nBY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT IS FORECAST\r\nBY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THAT TIME\r\nFRAME.  BY DAY THREE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SOUTH OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WOULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE EXPLICIT TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE INTO THIS WEAKNESS...PERHAPS BECAUSE THE\r\nMODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE SYSTEM QUITE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM A POOR INITIALIZATION OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX...WHICH APPEARS TO RESULT IN A SPURIOUS\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK INITIALLY IN THE GFS AND GFDL.  I AM INCLINED TO\r\nDISCOUNT THIS NORTHWEST TRACK IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER THAT. \r\n\r\nCIMSS ANALYSES SHOW 25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.  SSTS UNDER THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nDECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...SO IF THE SHEAR\r\nGRADUALLY DIMINSHES AS EXPECTED THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE SLOW TO\r\nSPIN DOWN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 15.2N 111.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.4N 112.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.9N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 17.0N 119.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.5N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 18.5N 135.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WAS A LITTLE BIT EAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS MEANS A SLOWER INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE...275/6.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB HAVE REACHED 35 KT...AND SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS.\r\n \r\nTHE 12Z MODELS APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE\r\nVORTEX. THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND GFS STILL START ISIS OFF TO THE\r\nNORTH OR NORTHWEST...AND THE LAST FEW IMAGES ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. IF THE STORM MAINTAINS VERTICAL\r\nCONTINUITY IT WOULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW HOWEVER...AND THAT IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS ENOUGH OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ISIS TO PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUKMET MODEL.  \r\n \r\nISIS IS BATTLING 25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED NE-SW.  GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN OR\r\nEVEN INCREASE THE SHEAR SLIGHTLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER BAJA\r\nBUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE GFDL KEEPS ISIS AS A WEAK SYSTEM WHILE\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 60 KT.  IF ISIS\r\nSURVIVES THE NEXT 36 HOURS...IT COULD BECOME A STRONG TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ISISIS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nSUB 26C WATER AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO\r\nIS THAT ISIS BECOMES SHEARED AND DISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 15.3N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.7N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 16.2N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 16.9N 116.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N 123.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 19.0N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 135.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 08 2004\r\n \r\nTHE REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT DEVIATED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...EXCEPT THAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BECAME\r\nEXPOSED. THE CENTER WAS EASILY TRACKED FOR SEVERAL HOURS TO GIVE AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT...A BIT FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION. ISIS HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING RATHER SEVERE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA STILL\r\nLOCATED WELL WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE WAS SOME\r\nINDICATION IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE FRAMES THAT NEW\r\nCONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING NEAR THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX. CLARIFICATION\r\nOF THE ACTUAL CENTER POSITION AND MOTION PROVIDES SUFFICIENT\r\nEVIDENCE THAT ISIS WILL EXIT THE HIGH VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT A\r\nBIT EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN AT LEAST 28 DEG C\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECASTED TO DECREASE.\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE AS THE GFDL MODEL HAS SUDDENLY\r\nTAKEN A LIKING TO ISIS. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO FORECASTS\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND IS NOW MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL. BASED ON\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE AND THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL MOTION...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD.  ISIS WILL BEGIN TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A STRONG SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.  ISIS SHOULD SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN AFTER THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER SUB 26\r\nDEG C WATER...REMAINING IN A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/HENNON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 16.6N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N 111.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.1N 115.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 19.3N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 19.8N 129.4W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 20.3N 136.1W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nAFTER MOST OF THE CONVECTION WAS SHEARED AWAY ABOUT 9-12 HOURS\r\nAGO...A TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SINCE RE-DEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE\r\nOF T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB USING A SHEAR PATTERN. A BANDING\r\nPATTERN...WHICH IS NOT APPLICABLE IN THIS SITUATION... YIELDS A\r\nLOWER INTENSITY OF T2.5...OR 35 KT. THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS\r\nBASED ON A 09/0414Z SSMI IMAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09. AFTER THE CONVECTION WEAKENED\r\nEARLIER...ISIS MADE A SHARP JOG TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...OVER\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT\r\nISIS HAS TURNED BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ISIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY\r\nINITIAL POSITION OF ISIS ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT ISIS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE PERIODIC FLUCTUATIONS IN THE\r\nINTENSITY AS THE DEEP CONVECTION WAXES AND WANES. HOWEVER...BY 36\r\nHOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO\r\nWEAKEN TO 5-10 KT AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE ONLY\r\nMODULATING EFFECT ON ISIS WILL BE THE COOLER SSTS...BELOW 26 C...\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING IN 72 HOURS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ISIS UP TO \r\n62 KT AT 48 AND 60 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 16.7N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 17.3N 114.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 17.9N 116.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 18.5N 118.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 19.1N 121.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 19.8N 127.2W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 20.0N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 20.0N 140.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES...SO SOME RELOCATION IS NECESSARY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT IS\r\nFORECAST TO EVOLVE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER BECAUSE OF THE REVISED INITIAL MOTION...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nISIS IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT SINCE THE CENTER IS NEARLY\r\nEXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST END OF A RAGGEDLY-SHAPED AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. STRONG EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE\r\nSTORM AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 40 KT BASED ON\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...35 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARING\r\nWILL RELAX IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENTLY\r\nUNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF ISIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR\r\nWILL PERSIST...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 17.0N 112.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 113.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 116.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N 118.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 18.9N 121.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 133.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES IN ABOUT THE SAME STATE THAT IT WAS IN THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ALMOST EXPOSED\r\nON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF AN AREA OF POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  APPARENTLY THERE IS ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH\r\nSHEAR TO WEAKEN IT.   A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO\r\nINDICATED THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 40 KT...WHICH IS\r\nIN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST PRESUMES SOME  RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER BY 48\r\nHOURS OR SO...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PROHIBIT STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE EASTERLY\r\nSTEERING CURRENT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE A TURN TO THE WEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS\r\nTHE ONES FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH\r\nSHOW LITTLE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 17.4N 113.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 115.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 18.4N 117.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.8N 120.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 19.2N 122.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 133.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 19.5N 139.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 09 2004\r\n \r\nISIS IS STILL FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nOVERALL THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. \r\nCLOUD TOPS REMAIN COLD AND ARE SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER THAN YESTERDAY.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35/45/45 KT FROM SAB/TAFB/KGWC.  BECAUSE OF\r\nA LACK OF ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE AND THE STEADY STATE OF\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER MOTION LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND THIS FORECAST REFLECTS THAT.  ISIS WILL\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS IT ENCOUNTERS\r\nINCREASING INFLUENCE BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH ISIS STILL\r\nLOCATED OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIS FORECAST UNTIL ISIS MOVES OVER A COLDER SEA SURFACE AROUND THE 3\r\nDAY TIME FRAME.  AFTER THAT TIME...ISIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE IN A WESTERLY FASHION OVER INCREASINGLY\r\nUNFAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/HENNON\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 17.4N 114.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.8N 116.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 18.9N 120.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 19.4N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N 128.1W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 133.2W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N 138.8W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nISIS APPEARS TO STILL BE AFFECTED BY EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INTERPRETATION\r\nOF THE GFS FORECAST...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE\r\nNEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE ISIS ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS THE STORM IS\r\nSTEERED BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 17.6N 115.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 19.0N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 19.3N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.4N 129.6W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 19.2N 135.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 19.2N 142.3W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A MARKED DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISIS THIS\r\nMORNING.  I AM A LITTLE PUZZLED AS TO WHY...SINCE THE SSTS ARE\r\nSTILL AROUND 27C AND THE SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE INCREASED\r\nANY.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE...BUT THE MOST\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 40 KT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR...BUT\r\nTHIS IS CLEARLY NOT HAPPENING AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nIN DEFERENCE TO BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW STRENGTHENING...BUT IF THE SHEAR DOES NOT LESSEN VERY SOON\r\nA WEAKENING TREND WILL COMMENCE MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n\r\nA NICE MICROWAVE PASS AT 08Z HELPS ESTABLISH THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE AT 270/8.  ISIS IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY JUST UPDATES THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 17.3N 116.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 117.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 18.6N 122.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N 125.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nISIS HAS REMAINED CONVENTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...DESPITE AN\r\nAPPARENTLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM OCEAN.  ALL THAT REMAINS\r\nIS A LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM WAS\r\nUNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT MAINTAINED A\r\n1.5 FT/2.0 CI FROM ALL AGENCIES BASED ON THE MODEL EXPECTED\r\nT-NUMBER.  A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...ISIS HAS\r\nBEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY ISIS AFTER 36-48 HOURS...IT\r\nWILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ISIS TO RECOVER AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nKEEPS ISIS AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 96\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9.  ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WESTERLY\r\nTRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE\r\nWEAKENED STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE AND SUBSEQUENT DECOUPLING FROM THE\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BUT MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE WITH THE CURRENT INITIAL\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 17.5N 117.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.9N 118.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N 120.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.7N 123.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.8N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N 131.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nLO AND BEHOLD...AFTER REMAINING CONVECTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE\r\nDAY...ISIS REALIZED THAT SHE WAS STILL OVER WARM SSTS AND\r\nDECREASING VERTICAL SHEER....AND HAS SENT UP A NICE CONVECTIVE BOMB\r\nJUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n\r\nWITHOUT THE DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE DAY TSAB HAS NOT GIVEN THE\r\nSYSTEM A T NUMBER.  SAB AND KGWC BOTH GAVE THE SYSTEM A T1.5. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE\r\nLATEST QUICK SCAT WHICH SHOWED 30 KTS. AGAIN...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWANTS TO RE-INTENSIFY ISIS AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECAST\r\nKEEPS THE SYSTEM INVARIANT OUT TO 120 HRS.  WITH THE RENEWED\r\nCONVECTION...I AM GOING TO FOLLOW THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND SEE IF\r\nTHE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO DISSIPATE NEAR 72 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW THERE\r\nAFTER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A\r\nWESTERLY TRACK.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nVERY CLOSELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 17.5N 118.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 120.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.9N 122.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.2N 124.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 126.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 18.6N 131.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 18.8N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nTHE TOPS OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BUT IF NEW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS POP UP WITHIN THE NEXT 6\r\nHOURS...ISIS WILL PROBABLY MAKE IT BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\nALL AGENCIES ARE REPORTING T NUMBERS NOW...WITH TAFB AT T1.0...SAB\r\nAT T1.5 AND KGWC AT T2.0. ANOTHER RECENT HIGH DENSITY QUIK SCAT\r\nPASS SHOWED A LOT OF 25 AND 30 KT WINDS AND A FEW POSSIBLE\r\nCONTAMINATED 35 AND 40 KT WINDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT\r\n30 KT.  SHIPS NOW WANTS TO MAKE ISIS A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 12\r\nHOURS.  ALSO...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...DUE WEST...KEEPS THE SYSTEM\r\nCLOSER TO WARM SSTS AND IN VERY LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR 72 HOURS. \r\nIT NOW LOOKS LIKE ISIS CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF OUT TO 120 HOURS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST NOW LARGELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT HAS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTH AND RUNS DUE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 17.4N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.4N 120.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.4N 122.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N 124.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 126.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 131.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.4N 135.6W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.4N 139.7W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER AMSU-B DEPICTED THAT ISIS WAS EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. ENHANCED BD-CURVE ANIMATION\r\nINDICATES A NEW DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 50 NM SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...25 KT FROM SAB. A 11/0200Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED UN-FLAGGED 30 KT WINDS BENEATH THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS DEPICTS 10 TO 20 KT\r\nOF EASTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY TREND FROM THE SHIPS AND\r\nTHE GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS SEEMS REASONABLE...THE ACTUAL\r\nINTENSITY VALUES MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGH. THE GFDL ALSO INCREASES THE\r\nINTENSITY TO 60 KT IN 24 HOURS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS\r\nREVEALS WARM WATERS ABOVE 26 DEGREES CELSIUS SOUTH OF 20 N. BASED\r\nON AN IMPROVING ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND WARM WATERS...THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 280/9. LARGE SCALE MODELS AGREE\r\nWITH STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM\r\nMEXICO/BAJA THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A\r\nMID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM BAJA WILL CAUSE A\r\nREDUCTION IN MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HOWEVER...WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY\r\nON THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH A REDUCTION IN SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 17.8N 120.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 121.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.8N 125.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.8N 126.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICT THAT THE PARTIALLY\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF ISIS HAS TUCKED IN BENEATH\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY\r\nALSO SHOWS A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING IN FROM THE WEST\r\nQUADRANT. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 30 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB.  WE WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED BEFORE RE-UPGRADING ISIS TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. THE SHIPS AND NOW THE GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF.\r\nUW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 10 TO 20 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN. THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/8. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A\r\nMID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO/BAJA THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARDS...A DEEPENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST\r\nFROM BAJA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN MOTION BEYOND\r\nTHE 72 HOUR PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF GUNA AND THE CONU CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 17.5N 120.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 122.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N 124.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 126.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 132.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A DEVELOPING BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nTHIS BANDING FEATURE CONTAINS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE...AND CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON\r\nTHE PERSISTENCE OF THE DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE AND 35 KT\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TWO AGENCIES...ISIS HAS BEEN RE-UPGRADED\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO 55 KT IN 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nISIS AS ONLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SINCE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS\r\nALREADY SUGGESTING THE SHEAR TO BE WEAKENING...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS AND TAKES ISIS TO 45 KT IN 48\r\nHOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/9. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE \r\nREMAINS CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENCE MID-UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nWESTWARD FROM MEXICO/BAJA.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AFTER 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 17.4N 122.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.4N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 17.4N 125.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.4N 127.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 128.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS A SMALL AREA TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR IS SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE T3.0\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW SET\r\nAT 45 KTS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nTO 65 KT IN 60 TO 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT ONLY TO 60 KTS.\r\n\r\nISIS IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OF A WELL POSITIONED RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/10. ISIS HAS BEEN\r\nRUNNING DUE WEST ALONG 17.4 NORTH FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS AND MOVING\r\nONE WHOLE DEGREE OF LONGITUDE EVERY 6 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED ON THIS CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH\r\nTHE PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATER FORECAST\r\nPERIODS.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 17.4N 123.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N 125.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 127.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 17.4N 128.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 129.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.4N 132.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 17.4N 133.4W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 17.4N 134.8W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nA 12/0746Z TRMM PASS DEPICTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nHAS REMAINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED...ABOUT 20 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES REMAIN AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45\r\nKT EVEN THOUGH A TRMM PASS 24 HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE LOW\r\nCLOUD LINES WERE BETTER DEFINED THAN THIS MORNING'S IMAGE. THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO INDICATE LIGHT 5 KT NORTHEAST TO\r\nEAST SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UW-CIMSS WIND\r\nSHEAR ANALYSIS REVEALS 10 TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH\r\nJUSTIFIES THE CURRENT DECOUPLED STRUCTURE OF ISIS. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT SHIPS AND THE GFDL INDICATE SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE...INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT IN 48 HOURS MAY BE A\r\nBIT TOO GENEROUS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY TREND FOLLOWS BOTH\r\nMODELS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD BUT IS KEPT AT 55 KT\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/9. ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS\r\nAS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE NORTH OF ISIS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A PERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY DAY 4.\r\nTHIS AGREES WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 17.4N 123.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.4N 125.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.4N 127.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 17.4N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 17.4N 131.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.4N 133.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 17.4N 134.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 17.4N 134.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nISIS IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. VISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS A\r\nPOORLY DEFINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. OUTFLOW\r\nBOUNDARIES APPEAR MORE ABUNDANT THAN LOW CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CENTER. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS\r\nFORCING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. WHICH LEADS US TO BELIEVE\r\nTHAT THIS MAY BE RESTRICTING THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW/MID\r\nLEVELS. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nPERSISTS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES\r\nREMAIN AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT JUST IN\r\nCASE THE CENTER HAS MOVED OR REDEVELOPED FURTHER BENEATH THE\r\nCONVECTION. IF THIS IS NOT THE CASE AND THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT CONTINUES...THE INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE DECREASED ON\r\nTHE NEXT ADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODELS HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO LOW\r\nON THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR. 10 TO 20 KT UPPER EASTERLIES\r\nREMAIN OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS SHEAR\r\nANALYSIS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR NOW.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND TO 55 KT IN 48 HOURS MAY\r\nBE TOO GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/8...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND AGREES WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 17.4N 124.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 125.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.4N 127.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 129.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.4N 131.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.4N 133.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.4N 134.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 17.4N 134.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST ON THE PERIPHERY OF ISIS BUT AWAY FROM\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  ISIS REMAINS SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nSHEARED BUT IS STILL A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM...AS CLASSIFIED BY TAFB\r\nAND AIR FORCE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nAND REMAINS AT 270/8.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...MOST GUIDANCE ARE BUILDING IN A STRONG RIDGE\r\nAHEAD OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  THIS WOULD WORK TO SLOW THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION OF ISIS AND EVENTUALLY STEER THE STORM TO THE NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTH WHEN A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE DURING DAYS\r\n4 AND 5. ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT UKMET SHOWS A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF\r\nMOTION AT THE 120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH ARE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WHICH INCLUDES A CONTINUING TREND TOWARD A SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS.       \r\n\r\nALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nOF ISIS.  THIS IS CONTINGENT UPON A WEAKENING OF THE PERSISTENT\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING ISIS SINCE ITS GENESIS.  THE\r\nSHEAR PREDICTOR IN THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS VERY LOW SHEAR\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST IS FOR ONLY\r\nMODEST INTENSIFICATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS MODEL HAS\r\nBEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDERESTIMATING THE SHEAR OVER ISIS FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS NOW.  IF THE SHEAR DOES IN FACT SUBSIDE...GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AS THE THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE COUPLED\r\nIN THE VERTICAL.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 17.4N 125.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 17.4N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.4N 128.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 129.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.6N 131.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.7N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 17.9N 133.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 18.1N 134.2W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nA 530 UTC QUICK SCAT PASS SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ISIS REMAINS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED BUT IS STILL A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM...AS\r\nCLASSIFIED BY TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. ISIS HAS BEEN MOVING DUE WESTWARD ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-PACIFIC RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nINTENSIFY AND BLOCK THE MOTION OF ISIS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AND THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE...SQUASHED SPIDER...GUIDANCE PATTERN. ISIS SHOULD\r\nBECOME QUASI-STATIONARY AFTER 48 HOURS AND IF THE SHEAR IS STILL\r\nPRESENT AT THAT TIME THE SYSTEM MAY MEET ITS DEMISE AND BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW. ON THE OTHER HAND IF THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...ISIS MAY BE\r\nABLE TO SURVIVE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. I AM ASSUMING THE SHEAR WILL\r\nBE LIGHT AND ISIS WILL ACTUALLY REMAIN A 45 TO 50 KT STORM AS PER\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 17.4N 126.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 17.4N 127.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N 129.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 130.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.6N 131.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.7N 131.6W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 17.8N 131.9W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER REMAINS DISPLACED ABOUT 30 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF WEAKENING\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS SUPPORTS\r\nA POSITION SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. UW-CIMSS\r\nANALYSES INDICATES THAT 10 TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER\r\nISIS. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT...\r\nALTHOUGH DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 2.0 AND 2.5...30 AND 35\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY. THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO REVEALED NUMEROUS 40 AND 45\r\nKT FLAGGED BUT POSSIBLY VALID WIND VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT. WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THIS AFTERNOON'S\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS BEFORE DECREASING THE INTENSITY. THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THE THE GFDL THAN THE SHIPS. AS\r\nMENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...SHIPS HAS INDICATED CONSIDERABLY\r\nUNREALISTICALLY LOW SHEAR VALUES OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/9 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL\r\nDEPICT A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISIS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND\r\nRETROGRADING WEST AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS ISIS SHOULD SLOW AND DRIFT OR STAIR-STEP WITHIN A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA/BAJA. MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING A PERIPHERAL RIDGE\r\nBUILDING SLIGHTLY BETWEEN ISIS AND JAVIER...WHICH WOULD ALSO\r\nSUPPORT A SLIGHT DRIFT NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND AGREES WITH THE CONU\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 17.3N 127.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.3N 128.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.3N 129.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 130.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.4N 131.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 131.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT ISIS IS TRYING TO MAKE A COMEBACK. \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS TUCKED IN FURTHER BENEATH THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SMALL DEVELOPING\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nFURTHER SOUTH BASED ON THIS RECENT DEVELOPMENT. IMAGERY ALSO\r\nREVEALS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY. WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE\r\nLESSENING...ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. WIDESPREAD\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS FORCING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...RELATIVELY DRY STABLE\r\nAIR...IS POSSIBLY INHIBITING THE MOISTURE CONTENT OF ISIS WITHIN\r\nTHE LOW AND MID LEVELS. THIS IS MORE THAN LIKELY THE ONLY MECHANISM\r\nTHAT IS PREVENTING ISIS FROM INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB...45 KT FROM\r\nAFWA...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45\r\nKT BASED ON THE CENTER'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING CDO\r\nUSING THE SHEAR PATTERN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...THE GFDL RUN INDICATES\r\nAN ABRUPT RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN INTENSITY\r\nTO 34 KT OVER COOLER WATERS. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE MORE CLOSELY BEYOND 48 AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITHIN A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/9 KT.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nISIS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WEST DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...ISIS SHOULD SLOW AND MEANDER AS\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS DECREASE. AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE 12Z GFDL\r\nRUN INDICATES A RECURVATURE SCENARIO AS OPPOSED TO A STAIR-STEP\r\nWITHIN THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS...WHICH THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nSUGGESTING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 16.7N 128.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.7N 129.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.7N 130.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.8N 131.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.9N 131.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT ISIS CONTINUES TO HAVE INTERMITTANT\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE\r\nLESSENING...ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. WIDESPREAD\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS INFLOW ON THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE CONTINUES AND IS\r\nMORE THAN LIKELY THE ONLY MECHANISM THAT IS PREVENTING ISIS FROM\r\nINTENSIFYING. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...45 KT FROM AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN AT 45 KT. SHIPS WANTS TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ISIS BUT\r\nTHE INTRUSION OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL. ISIS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN SLOWLY AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HOLDS THE SYSTEM INVARIANT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/6 KT. ISIS IS SLOWING DOWN AS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nISIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WEST IN RESPONSE TO\r\nAN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST...ISIS SHOULD SLOW AND MEANDER AS STEERING CURRENTS\r\nDECREASE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 16.7N 129.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N 130.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.8N 131.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 131.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 132.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 132.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 132.2W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 17.4N 132.2W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED ANIMATION SHOWS THAT ISIS CONTINUES TO HAVE INTERMITTANT\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  WIND SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO\r\nBE LIGHT.  THE STRATOCUMULUS INFLOW CONTINUES AND THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE IN A STEADY STATE AS FAR AS INTENSITY IS\r\nCONCERNED...WARM SSTS...LIGHT SHEAR...WORKING AGAINST STABLE\r\nENTRAINED AIR. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB AND 35 KT FROM KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\nAT 45 KT.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY ALSO STAYS AT 45 KTS THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION FOR 0600 UTC WAS STATIONARY...BUT FOR 0900 UTC\r\nWILL BE 270/2 KT. ISIS HAS SLOWED DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO\r\nDRIFT AROUND.  THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS A DRIFT TO THE\r\nWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nREASONING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 16.5N 129.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 129.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 130.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.7N 131.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.9N 131.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 18.2N 132.8W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH A HEALTHY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AND\r\nISIS IS SHOWING POOR TO FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/5.  ISIS IS SOUTH OF\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS WEAKNESS TO\r\nPERSIST...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. \r\nTRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN SPREADS OUT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH FORECAST TRACKS EVERYWHERE FROM WEST THROUGH\r\nNORTH THROUGH EAST.  THIS GENERALLY MEANS THE MOTION WILL BE\r\nSLOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT ALONG THE LINES OF THAT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  GIVEN THAT THE 120 HR TRACK GUIDANCE POSITIONS RANGE\r\nBETWEEN 124W AND 141W...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CHANGE TO INCLUDE SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT\r\nWILL BE NEAR OR OVER 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 48-72 HR AND\r\nOVER 25C BY 120 HR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 16.9N 130.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 130.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 17.2N 131.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N 131.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.6N 132.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 18.5N 133.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCONVECTION OF ISIS HAS DECREASED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HR. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WHICH IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.  THE SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT\r\nAND ISIS IS SHOWING POOR TO FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT\r\nTO THE SOUTH EAST...WHERE IT IS POOR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/5.  ISIS IS SOUTH OF\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS WEAKNESS TO\r\nPERSIST...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\nTRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 36 HR...THEN SPREADS OUT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH FORECAST TRACKS EVERYWHERE FROM WEST THROUGH\r\nNORTH THROUGH EAST.  THIS GENERALLY MEANS THE MOTION WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO BE SLOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT ALONG THE LINES OF THAT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  GIVEN THAT THE 120 HR TRACK GUIDANCE POSITIONS RANGE\r\nBETWEEN 124W AND 141W...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...IF THE\r\nSTORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER 26C SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 48-72 HR AND OVER 25C BY 120 HR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 17.1N 130.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.2N 131.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 17.4N 131.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 17.6N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.8N 132.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nISIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BUT IT APPEARS THAT A GENERAL\r\nPROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST CONTINUES...300/4.\r\n\r\nALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WANT TO KEEP ISIS IN THE SAME AREA OVER THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS. THE EARLY FORECAST CONTINUES THE SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...IT IS AN EDUCATED GUESS AS TO WHERE\r\nISIS WILL BE. THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE\r\nFAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDRIFT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT ISIS HAS FINALLY RID ITSELF\r\nOF ITS SHEAR INDUCED MALAISE. MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SLOW MOTION OF ISIS WILL\r\nPROBABLY INDUCE SOME UPWELLING OF COLDER WATER. THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 17.3N 131.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 131.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 17.6N 132.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.7N 132.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.8N 132.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.9N 132.8W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N 133.4W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nISIS IS STILL FAIRLY ORGANIZED AS DEPICTED BY INFRARED IMAGERY AND\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY STAYS AT 55 KTS BASED ON UNCHANGED DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...BUT A GENERAL MOVEMENT TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF 290/4 IS ESTIMATED.\r\n \r\nTHE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE STILL KEEPS ISIS IN THE SAME AREA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 5 DAYS. DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD...A VERY SLOW\r\nMOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE MODELS\r\nFOLLOWED BY A WESTAWRD DRIFT.  SINCE THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW IS QUITE\r\nWEAK...ISIS WILL LINGER IN THE SAME VICINITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS WITH VERY SLOW MOTION OR WILL JUST REMAIN STATIONARY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A LEISURELY DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST\r\nOVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST PACKAGE.  SINCE ISIS WILL LINGER IN THE SAME AREA WHERE\r\nABOVE 26 DEGREE SSTS PERSIST AND THE SHIPS SHEAR IS LOW...THE\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ISIS TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 17.4N 131.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 17.6N 131.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.6N 132.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.6N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.6N 133.2W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 134.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 134.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isis","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0636Z SHOW THAT\r\nISIS HAS FORMED A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED\r\nON THE EYE AND THE STRONGER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ISIS IS UPGRADED\r\nTO A 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5.  ISIS IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS AND WILL GO NOWHERE FAST DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  MOST\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE INCREASED INITIAL INTENSITY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ISIS WILL LINGER NEAR THE\r\n26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. \r\nWHILE THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY\r\nLEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING...ISIS SHOULD REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM\r\nOR BETTER INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  SHOULD THE CYCLONE\r\nDRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER THAT COOLER\r\nWATER AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 17.9N 132.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 132.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 132.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N 132.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 134.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 135.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nTHE EYE STRUCTURE SEEN EARLIER HAS COLLAPSED COMPLETELY DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL\r\nAREA IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  IN VIEW OF THE\r\nDEGENERATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT...AND\r\nTHIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/4.  ISIS IS EMBEDDED\r\nIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND WILL GO NOWHERE FAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.  MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nFOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nTHE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION HAS PROBABLY BROUGHT ISIS OVER COOLER\r\nWATER...AND THIS IS LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE CURRENT WEAKENING. \r\nBETWEEN THE COOL WATER AND STRATOCUMULUS ENTRAINMENT CURRENLY SEEN\r\nIN VISIBLE IMAGERY...ISIS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 18.2N 132.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N 132.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.4N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 133.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N 134.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AROUND THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5.  ISIS IS EMBEDDED\r\nIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND WILL BE DRIFTING ABOUT DURING THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nFOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nTHE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION HAS BROUGHT ISIS OVER COOLER WATER AND\r\nTHIS IS LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE CURRENT WEAKENING. IF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE CORRECT AND ISIS EVENTUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE WEST\r\nAND THAN SOUTHWEST IT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER COMEBACK BUT WE\r\nWILL ASSUME A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND UNTIL THAT HAPPENS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 18.6N 132.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.7N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N 133.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.6N 133.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 18.4N 134.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.3N 134.7W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N 135.1W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 18.1N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF ISIS REMAINS AT 55 KTS BASED ON UW-CIMSS\r\nAND CSU-CIRA AMSU ALGORITHMS WHICH YIELD A CONSISTENT MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 992 MB AND AN INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB..AND AFWA YIELD A SOMEWHAT\r\nLOWER INTENSITY OF 45 KTS...HOWEVER THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 55 KTS BASED ON THE CONSISTENT RESULTS FROM THE OBJECTIVE\r\nANALYSES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL DIFFICULT TO DISCERN...BUT IT APPEARS\r\nSTATIONARY. ISIS REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nSINCE ISIS HAS MOVED GENERALLY NORTHWARD...IT HAS TRACKED OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND THIS HAS LIKELY KEPT\r\nCONVECTION TO A MINIMUM. HOWEVER...THE PROJECTED WEST AND SOUTHWEST\r\nTRACK OF ISIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT AS IT CROSSES BACK\r\nINTO A BIT WARMER SST REGIME...BUT AT THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL ASSUME A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND UNTIL THAT\r\nSCENARIO UNFOLDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 18.7N 132.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.7N 132.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.7N 133.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 18.6N 133.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 18.4N 134.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.3N 134.7W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.2N 135.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 18.1N 135.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isis","Adv":34,"Date":"2004-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISIS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CELLS REMAINING AT THIS TIME. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO\r\n40 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY DUBIOUS 280/2.  DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW\r\nTHIS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SHIFTED SOUTH\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nISIS IS OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED.  UNLESS\r\nTHE CONVECTION RETURNS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...WITH\r\nISIS BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN 12 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HR. \r\nTHIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL FORECAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nCALLS FOR SOME REGENERATION WHEN THE SYSTEM DRIFTS INTO WARMER\r\nWATER.  THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 18.3N 132.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.3N 133.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.2N 133.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 18.1N 134.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.8N 134.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":35,"Date":"2004-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nISIS REMAINS A CONVECTION SWIRL OF OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I\r\nOVERPASSES INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...AND BASED ON THIS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nCOOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nCOMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT...AS EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL IS NOW CALLING\r\nFOR DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS.  ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n24-36 HR...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY DUBIOUS 205/2.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION...AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 18.0N 132.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.9N 132.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N 133.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 17.7N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.3N 134.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":36,"Date":"2004-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CLOCK IS TICKING ON ISIS...FOR THE SECOND TIME. NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS. ISIS REMAINS A SWIRL OF STRATUS AND\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. I AM LEAVING THE 30 KTS IN THIS PACKAGE BASED\r\nUPON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I OVERPASS INFORMATION. VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT COMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT. WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL NOW CALLS FOR A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 120 HRS WITH NO\r\nDISSIPATION. ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS IF\r\nNO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/3  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 17.8N 132.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N 133.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 17.4N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 17.2N 134.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N 135.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 16.6N 136.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isis","Adv":37,"Date":"2004-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nISIS HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT HAS HAD NO DEEP CONVECTION\r\nFOR 24 HOURS.  THERFORE...IT HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAND HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND\r\nDOWN AND MAY EVEN SHOOT UP AN INTERMITTANT THUNDERSTORM STORM OR\r\nTWO AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ON ISIS UNLESS SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 17.7N 132.9W    30 KT...DISSAPATING\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 133.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 17.2N 133.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 134.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N 135.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 16.4N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.1N 137.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 15.9N 139.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC\r\nHAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER TO GENERATE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS RATHER THIN AT\r\nTHIS TIME IT IS WELL ORGANIZED.  SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS APPARENT\r\nFROM CIRRUS MOTIONS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT SHOULD\r\nREMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nVERY WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION UP TO 80\r\nKT IN 72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.  MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE IN\r\nTHEIR INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND OFFER A CONFUSING\r\nVARIETY OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS TAKES THE DEPRESSION WEST\r\nFOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...STALLS IT...THEN DRIFTS IT NORTH TOWARD THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST.  THE UKMET STARTS OFF WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK AND THEN LOSES THE CYCLONE.  THE NOGAPS...WITH PERHAPS THE\r\nPOOREST INITIALIZATION...DRIFTS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER 4 DAYS\r\nTO THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.  THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED\r\nIN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTH-\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE BASIC\r\nSTEERING WILL BE PROVIDED BY THIS CURRENT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE BAM MODELS.  IT SHOWS A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A\r\nSHARP DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.     \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 11.4N  94.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 12.2N  95.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 12.8N  97.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 13.0N  99.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 13.0N 101.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 13.0N 102.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 13.5N 104.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 14.0N 105.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004\r\n \r\nCONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E HAS DECREASED\r\nSOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER A BANDING FEATURE\r\nHAS PERSISTED IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...30 KT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMMS INDICATE 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF THIRTEEN-E. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. THE DIFFERENCES IN INITIALIZATION OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE VARIOUS MODELS HAS ONCE AGAIN LED TO\r\nDIFFERING SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST NOGAPS HAS A POOR INITIALIZATION OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS THE LONE OUTLIER IMMEDIATELY TURNS THE\r\nSYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR 24 HOURS THEN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nGUATEMALA AFTER THAT TIME. THIS SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED. THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...LBAR...CONU CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE BAMS MOVE THE\r\nSYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS AT VARYING\r\nSPEEDS THEN TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHIRTEEN-E WILL RETROGRADE AFTER 48 HOURS AND ALLOW HEIGHTS TO FALL\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER MEXICO AND THEREBY INDUCING A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFOR THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION INITIALLY. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS WITH A SHARP DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED TO\r\nACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBLE TURN TO THE NORTH BEING OFFERED BY MORE\r\nMEMBERS OF THE MODEL SUITE. \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WITH UPPER LEVEL SHEAR DECREASING WITH TIME. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN 48\r\nHOURS AND A LEVELLING OF THE INTENSITY TO 75 KNOTS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\nTHIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nAND FORECASTS AN INTENSITY OF 90-95 KT BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/JARVINEN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 11.5N  95.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 11.8N  97.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 12.4N  99.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 12.8N 100.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 13.0N 101.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 14.0N 104.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 105.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DVORAK T NUMBER FROM TAFB IS 3.0 BASED ON THE 0600Z GOES-10\r\nIMAGE...AND FOLLOWING THE GOES-12 ECLIPSE PERIOD...SAB OBTAINED A\r\nDVORAK T NUMBER OF 2.5 FROM THE 0645Z IMAGE.  WHILE THESE ESTIMATES\r\nCOULD BE GROUNDS FOR UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...WE PREFER TO WAIT TO SEE IF THE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT BEGAN\r\nDURING THE GOES-12 ECLIPSE PERSISTS...AND PERHAPS WAIT FOR VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING TO BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS SUFFICIENTLY INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION.  SHORTWAVE IR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS JUST BARELY TUCKED INTO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF THE MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12...OR JUST NORTH OF\r\nWEST...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN IGNORE THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION AND IMMEDIATELY TAKE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTH OR\r\nNORTHWEST...AND THESE SOLUTIONS ARE DISCOUNTED THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY\r\nCONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AS AGREED UPON BY THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST STILL RELIES ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE THREE MODELS...ALL OF\r\nWHICH FORECAST THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO WEAKEN AND FOR THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTH. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT READY TO FOLLOW A NORTHWARD TURN AS\r\nABRUPT AS THAT SHOWN BY THE GFS AND GFDL...AND RATHER STAY CLOSER\r\nTO THE MORE GRADUAL TURN IN THE UKMET. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS MORE TO THE RIGHT BEYOND\r\nDAY THREE...AND NOW INCLUDES A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION ON DAYS FOUR\r\nAND FIVE.\r\n\r\nON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN\r\n28-29C AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND LEVELLING\r\nOFF THE INTENSITY AT 75 KNOTS AT DAYS 4 AND 5...GENERALLY IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 11.7N  97.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 12.0N  98.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 12.4N 100.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 12.7N 102.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 13.2N 103.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 105.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 106.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED A PERSISTENT SMALL CDO\r\nLIKE FEATURE WITH SOME BANDING PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM AFWA. \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JAVIER BASED WITH A\r\nCONSERVATIVE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON THESE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.   \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOWER 285/9....BASICALLY ALONG THE \r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nIS THAT ALL THE TRACK MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...AGREE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AT VARYING SPEEDS\r\nAND THEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS. THE FORECAST ESSENTIALLY\r\nLEANS CLOSER TO THE PERSISTENT NORTHWARD TURN PRESENTED BY THE\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nWIND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN/CIMSS CURRENTLY\r\nINDICATE 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JAVIER. THIS SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 24 HOURS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\nTHIS COUPLED WITH THE FACT THAT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C...STEADY INTENSIFICATION \r\nIS FORECAST WITH JAVIER REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS AND\r\nLEVELLING OFF AT 75 KNOTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION...BRINGING JAVIER TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24\r\nHOURS AND TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 54-60 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/AVILA \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 12.0N  98.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.3N  99.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 12.6N 101.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 13.1N 102.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 13.8N 103.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N 104.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH INCREASING\r\nCURVATURE TO THE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS ONCE AGAIN ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM\r\nAFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO RETROGRADE IN 36-48 HOURS AND ALLOW A\r\nFAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...THEREBY LOWERING HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST BY 72 HOURS WITH SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHIS TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU\r\nCONSENSUS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING A NORTHWARD\r\nTURN.\r\n \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS \r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24\r\nHOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36\r\nHOURS AND LEVEL OFF AT 80 KNOTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFDL IS AGAIN \r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION...BRINGING JAVIER TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 42-48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 12.2N  99.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 12.4N 100.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 12.9N 102.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 103.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 106.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER LOOKS MUCH THE SAME AS IT DID 6 HOURS AGO...WITH INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH \r\nBANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nA RE-ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE ESTIMATES OF JAVIERS POSITIONS DURING\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS GAVE A MOTION OF 275/12...WHICH IS WHAT WILL BE\r\nUSED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE ANALYSIS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM WAS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND THE TRACK\r\nIS ADJUSTED ACCORDING.  JAVIER IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO. THE RIDGE APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST...BECAUSE THE SYSTEM KEEPS RUNNING TOWARD THE WEST\r\nAND HAS NOT BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN. \r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE SAYS THAT THIS WILL STILL HAPPEN BUT I AM GOING\r\nCONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AT ABOUT 10 KTS BEFORE I\r\nFOLLOW THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY ON THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS BUT CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.  \r\n\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24\r\nHOURS TO ABOUT 10 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 36 HOURS AND MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS\r\nJUST AFTER RECURVATURE IS COMPLETED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 12.1N 100.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 12.4N 102.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 13.4N 103.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.3N 104.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.4N 105.9W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 106.4W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 106.8W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE BANDING\r\nFEATURE THAT IS WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE NORTH INTO THE CDO FEATURE\r\nOF JAVIER. THE CDO HAS VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -80\r\nDEGREES C OR COLDER. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM NOW LOOKS LIKE IT IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND SLOWING DOWN AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INDICATING.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8. JAVIER IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK NOW FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH GRADUALLY CURVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nSLOWS IT DOWN AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE.\r\n \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS INTO SINGLE\r\nDIGIT VALUES AND REMAIN THAT WAY OUT TO ABOUT 66 HOURS. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS\r\nFOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS JUST AFTER RECURVATURE IS\r\nCOMPLETED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 12.3N 102.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 12.7N 103.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 104.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.7N 105.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 106.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N 106.6W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 107.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N 107.7W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n\r\nCURRENT INFRARED AND EARLIER TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nJAVIER IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND NOW WRAPPING ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB...55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/10.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nJAVIER IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 72-96 HR AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH\r\nLIFTS OUT.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST\r\n72 HR.  THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT\r\nTIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.  THE GFDL FORECASTS A 109 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR...AND JAVIER\r\nCOULD REACH THAT INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 12.6N 102.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.3N 103.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N 105.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N 105.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.1N 106.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JAVIER HAS FORMED AN\r\nINTERMITTENT POORLY-DEFINED EYE IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH\r\nAN OUTER BAND LOOSELY WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO\r\nJAVIER IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  THE CIRRUS OUTLOW IS\r\nCURRENTLY GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR-FAIR\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/10.  JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS\r\nRIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY\r\nAFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD\r\nALLOW JAVIER TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED\r\nAND DIRECTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nGFDL AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF\r\nMEXICO BEFORE 96 HR...AND ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST.\r\n \r\nJAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST\r\n72 HR.  THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT\r\nTIME ASSUMING IT STAYS OFFSHORE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nTHIS SMALL SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KT BY 48 HR IN A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL.  NEITHER MODEL STRENGTHENS\r\nTHE SYSTEM AFTER 48-60 HR...ALTHOUGH THE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT\r\nREADILY APPARENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT FOR\r\nNOW...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT JAVIER WILL GET STRONGER\r\nTHAN FORECAST AFTER 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 13.4N 103.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.0N 104.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.9N 105.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 106.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.7N 106.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 106.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N 109.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":10,"Date":"2004-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES FOR THE DAY SHOWED JAVIERS POORLY-DEFINED\r\nEYE DISAPPEARING UNDER A CDO THAT DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE\r\nOF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nNOW 77 KT...SO JAVIERS INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE\r\nSAME. JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO. LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH\r\nLIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH\r\nTHE GFS FORECAST NOW BEING A MAJOR OUTLIER IN THAT IT MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO THE CONCENSUS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS. THE WHOLE MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST\r\nWHICH LESSENS THE THREAT TO MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE 120 HOUR\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS FOR THE UKMET...GFDL AND THE OFFICIAL ARE ALL\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nJAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST\r\n72 HR. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT\r\nTIME. SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KTS IN 36-48 HOURS\r\nAND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 14.0N 104.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.7N 105.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N 106.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 106.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 107.1W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 107.6W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 108.6W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":11,"Date":"2004-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER IS INTENSIFYING AT A RAPID RATE. THE T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE NOW BOTH 5.0. IN 12 HOURS THE WIND SPEED HAS GONE FROM 65\r\nKTS TO 90 KTS. THE INITIAL WIND IS INCREASED TO 90 KTS. JAVIER IS\r\nCURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR.\r\nTHUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT TIME.\r\nSHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 105 KTS IN 24 HOURS AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO BE PUSHED FARTHER TOWARD THE WEST SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS\r\nHAVE FORECAST.  THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nHAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS BEEN WEST OF THE\r\nCONCENSUS IN THE PAST TWO FORECAST CYCLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUNS AND GUNA SOLUTIONS.  \r\n\r\nTHE THREAT TO MEXICO IS NOW GREATLY REDUCED AND IF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHIFTS WESTWARD AGAIN IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE...THE THREAT WILL\r\nBE GONE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 14.4N 105.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.1N 106.1W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.1N 109.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 20.9N 111.2W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 22.4N 112.8W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":12,"Date":"2004-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AS INDICATED BY THE APPEARANCE OF A\r\nCLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE\r\n90...102...AND 115 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 1330Z ODT FROM\r\nUW/CIMSS GIVES ABOUT 95 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE\r\nESTIMATES AND IS INCREASED TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JAVIER IS\r\nSOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF\r\nOF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nHURRICANE. THIS SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING\r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS JAVIER WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE\r\nWEAKENING...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES SO AFTER 12 HOURS OF\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND SO I AM RELUCTANT TO FOLLOW THE WEAKENING TRENDS\r\nCALLED FOR BY THIS GUIDANCE. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nCALL FOR A ROUGHLY STEADY STATE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA HAS A WEAK STEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES\r\nLIFTS OUT.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO\r\nKEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALTHOUGH AN\r\nIMPACT THERE CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO\r\nTWO MAIN OPTIONS AT THIS TIME.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE\r\nJAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO.  AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSOLUTION IS OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH MAINTAINS THE 500 MB HIGH\r\nFARTHER SOUTH AND CONSEQUENTLY TAKES JAVIER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 15.0N 105.7W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.8N 106.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 107.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 108.3W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N 113.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":13,"Date":"2004-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND AFWA WERE 115 KT AND SAB CAME IN WITH 127 KT. LATEST RAW ODT\r\nESTIMATES FROM CIMSS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 115 KT. THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY AGAIN BLENDS THESE NUMBERS TO GET 120 KT.  MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. IF THIS IS THE\r\nCASE...THEN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW SOON.  JAVIER\r\nREMAINS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME MODEST EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE.  BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nREMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND WITH WARM WATER BELOW...I SEE\r\nNO REASON WHY THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFDL AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS JAVIER AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER\r\nWATERS.  EYEWALL CYCLES COULD...OF COURSE...CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THERE HAVE\r\nBEEN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AND FORECAST\r\nTRACK. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS ONLY A WEAK\r\nSTEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THIS COULD ALLOW A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE\r\nUPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES LIFTS OUT. IT IS\r\nLIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TURN JAVIER'S TRACK\r\nBACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND KEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO RULE OUT AN\r\nIMPACT THERE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN\r\nOPTIONS AT THIS TIME.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO\r\nTAKE JAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN\r\nFOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO.\r\nALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS IS EVEN SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 15.5N 106.3W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 107.7W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N 108.2W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.6N 109.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":14,"Date":"2004-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT...WHILE\r\nAFWA CLASSIFIED JAVIER WITH 140 KT WINDS. THIS CONTINUES THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 24\r\nHOURS.  ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED 49 MB IN THE LAST\r\n24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 130 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK. AFTER THAT TIME...A STRONG RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES COAST. IN THIS\r\nSCENARIO...JAVIER WILL GRADUALLY OBTAIN A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT\r\nTO ITS MOTION ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED. THIS TRACK\r\nWILL KEEP JAVIER WELL OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TO\r\nWARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF JAVIER FOR THOSE IN THE PENINSULA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nMODELS...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING JAVIER AT 18N\r\nLATITUDE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE LAST DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO\r\nBELIEVE THAT THE WEAKENING TREND FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS WILL VERIFY. ASSUMING THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nPHASE WILL END SOON...JAVIER IS FORECAST TO REACH 135 KT IN 12\r\nHOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...JAVIER WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER WARM\r\nSSTS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS COOLER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  UNTIL THAT TIME...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE\r\nLIKELY AS EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR.     \r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 16.2N 107.0W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 107.6W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 108.0W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.8N 111.1W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.4N 112.9W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 24.7N 115.2W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":15,"Date":"2004-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JAVIER HAS DEGRADED SOME TONIGHT\r\nAND T NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB HAVE FALLEN ACCORDINGLY.  THE SMALL EYE\r\nPRESENT EARLIER HAS FILLED...WITH EVIDENCE IN MICROWAVE DATA THAT A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE HAS BEGUN.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO\r\n120 KT ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAS COLLAPSED...\r\nCAUSING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOTION... NW AT ABOUT 7 KT. \r\nTHIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH TIME AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL HIGH BUILDS OVER NW MEXICO.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY \r\nKEEPS THE HIGH STRONG ENOUGH OVER MEXICO TO PREVENT A NORTHWARD\r\nTURN.  THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TO\r\nWARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF JAVIER FOR THOSE IN THE BAJA PENINSULA. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST... BETWEEN THE GFDL AND CONU.  THE UKMET MODEL IS THE ONLY\r\nRELIABLE MODEL WHICH HAS THE HURRICANE AFFECTING BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nIS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP JAVIER FROM\r\nRE-INTENSIFYING.  THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING MIGHT BE TEMPORARY AS THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING\r\nAN EYEWALL CYCLE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AS EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR BUT\r\nJAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 16.6N 107.4W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N 108.0W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 108.6W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.7N 109.3W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 116.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":16,"Date":"2004-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY FOR THE MOMENT.  WHILE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE EYE\r\nHAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...AND A 0850Z AQUA OVERPASS SUGGESTS A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS IN PROGRESS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 140 KT FROM AFWA AND 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ANALYZE A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FORECAST THIS TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nMOVES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE U. S.\r\nWEST COAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER\r\nRIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TURNS JAVIER MORE TOWARD THE WEST. \r\nTHAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BEING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  NOTE THAT WHILE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JAVIER WEST\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER\r\nMUCH CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nJAVIER HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTION EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND\r\nTHERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP IT FROM\r\nRE-INTENSIFYING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT FINISHES THE CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL CYCLE.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...JAVIER WILL MOVE OVER GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS\r\nMUCH STRONGER THAN EITHER SHIPS OF THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 16.8N 107.7W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 108.1W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 18.8N 109.4W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N 110.3W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N 114.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":17,"Date":"2004-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nA TRMM OVERPASS AT 1411Z SUGGEST THAT JAVIER HAS COMPLETED ITS\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON\r\nRECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN 140 KT FROM AFWA AND 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THE\r\nMORE DITINCT EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT. \r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS...EXCEPT TO\r\nTHE EAST WHERE IT IS POOR.\r\n \r\nJAVIER HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TODAY AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NOW 325/5.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ANALYZE A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FORECAST THIS TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nMOVES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE U. S.\r\nWEST COAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER\r\nRIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TURNS JAVIER MORE TOWARD THE WEST.\r\nTHAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BEING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 96 HR...JAVIER MAY TURN MORE NORTHWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE SECOND TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 120 HR\r\nPOSITION.  NOTE THAT WHILE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JAVIER WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...ANY FURTHER MOTION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER\r\nMUCH CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP JAVIER FROM\r\nRE-INTENSIFYING NOW THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS OVER...AND\r\nTHUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JAVIER TO STRENGTHEN TO 135\r\nKT IN 24 HR.  THERE MAY BE FLUCUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS SUBSEQUENT\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...JAVIER WILL MOVE\r\nOVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...AND IS MUCH STRONGER THAN EITHER SHIPS OF THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 17.2N 107.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N 108.1W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N 114.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":18,"Date":"2004-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004\r\n \r\nRECENT IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF JAVIER HAS FILLED IN...\r\nWITH WARMER CLOUD TOPS IN THE SE QUADRANT. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 0000\r\nUTC FROM TAFB AND SAB KEEP JAVIER AT 127 KT...THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 125 KT. HOWEVER...THAT MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE AREA. THERE IS SOME\r\nINDICATION THAT EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE IMPACTING\r\nTHE SYSTEM AS THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE\r\nASYMMETRICAL. JAVIER CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT\r\nTHIS EVENING.  CURRENT MOTION IS 335/4 BUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO A\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE EARLY FORECAST\r\nPERIODS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS THIS OCCURS...JAVIER\r\nSHOULD RESPOND BY GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO\r\nITS MOTION.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME CHANGE IN THE MODELS AT THE 4 AND\r\n5 DAY PERIODS.  AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THEY\r\nSUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWILL TURN JAVIER TOWARD THE NORTH TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH THIS TAKES JAVIER CLOSE TO THE\r\nNORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 5 DAYS...THE COLD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AT THOSE LATITUDES SHOULD WEAKEN JAVIER WELL BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES THE COAST...IF IT WERE TO FOLLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.\r\nTHIS FORECAST SCENARIO EXCLUDES THE GFS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nCONSISTENTLY BUILDING IN A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THAN OTHER MODELS.\r\nTHE GFS KEEPS JAVIER WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND\r\nIS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nREASONING FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCURRENT STATE OF JAVIER INDICATES SOME WEAKENING...THERE ARE NO\r\nOBVIOUS REASONS WHY JAVIER SHOULD NOT RECOVER AND STRENGTHEN AGAIN\r\nBEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nFORECAST REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN SHIPS AT THE EARLIER FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THEN COMES MORE IN LINE WITH IT AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY\r\nPERIODS.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AND AMSU WIND RADII GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 17.6N 108.1W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.1N 108.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 18.9N 109.2W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 109.9W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 110.8W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.4N 113.1W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 24.8N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":19,"Date":"2004-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n\r\nLATEST INFRARED IMAGERY AND BD ENHANCEMENT OF JAVIER DEPICTS A WELL\r\nORGANIZED HURRICANE. PREVIOUS IMAGERY SHOWED AN OBSCURE EYE WHICH\r\nHAS SINCE RE-EMERGED. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AROUND 02Z\r\nHAS SLIGHTLY TRIMMED BACK THE 34 KT WIND RADII TO 100 NM IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HENCE THE INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 125 KTS. \r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 335/4 AND A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A MOTION WHICH MOVES NORTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH\r\nDEVIATES BY MOVING JAVIER DUE WEST. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...HOWEVER THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE DEPICTS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST\r\nCOAST WHICH WEAKENS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AND GENERALLY\r\nDRIVES JAVIER NORTHWEST AND FINALLY NORTH INTO NORTHERN BAJA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTOWARD THE GUNS CONSENUS WHICH DOES NOT INCLUDE GFS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WITH SOME\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  DURING\r\nEXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIOD...JAVIER MOVES INTO MUCH COOLER SSTS\r\nAND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE DEEPENING\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING OF JAVIER BEYOND 96\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 18.0N 108.3W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N 109.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.9N 110.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N 111.7W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 113.6W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 25.5N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 27.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":20,"Date":"2004-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER 15/0503Z TRMM PASS DEPICTED A SMALL ROUND EYE WITH A\r\nSTRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. LAST NIGHT'S IMAGERY REVEALED A COLLAPSE OF THE EYE WALL\r\nOVER THE NORTH QUADRANT...SUGGESTING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE\r\nHAS TAKEN PLACE. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO\r\n115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...125 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED ONLY TO 120 KT JUST IN CASE JAVIER MAY UNDERGO ANOTHER\r\nEYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. SATELLITE ANIMATION OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS DEPICTS A HINT OF EASTERLY SHEAR HAMPERING THE OUTFLOW OVER\r\nTHE EAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY STRONG ENOUGH\r\nTO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 200 MB SYNOPTIC\r\nANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO...BETWEEN IVAN AND\r\nJAVIER. ONCE IVAN MOVES INLAND...OUTFLOW COULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY\r\nOVER JAVIER. BUT AT THE MOMENT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL\r\nINDICATES THIS SCENARIO. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...THEN A RAPID DECREASE AS JAVIER MOVES OVER SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE STILL MAY BE FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY IF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 325/6...WITH AN EXPECTED GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL ALL AGREE WITH A\r\nBUILDING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN 36 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES\r\nINLAND. THIS SHOULD STEER JAVIER IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nIS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nTOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE\r\nGUNS CONSENSUS...WHICH EXCLUDES THE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINITIALIZATION OF THE GFS...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 18.3N 108.7W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.3N 110.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 22.6N 112.1W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 25.0N 114.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 26.5N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":21,"Date":"2004-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nAN AFTERNOON TRMM PASS DEPICTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS REMAINED OPENED\r\nOVER THE NORTH QUADRANT. VISIBLE ANIMATION SUGGESTS A\r\nSMALL...CLOUD-FILLED EYE...AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS WIDESPREAD\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF RELATIVELY STABLE DRY AIR...FORCING\r\nIN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE A CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IN THE\r\nWEAKENING THAT JAVIER HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING. THE WIND RADII WERE\r\nSLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 102\r\nKT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN DATA-T NUMBERS AND THE\r\nEYEWALL STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE TRMM PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED 115 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...THEN A RAPID DECREASE AS JAVIER MOVES OVER SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ARE STILL POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...WITH AN EXPECTED GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD MOTION AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE\r\nEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BUILDING\r\nRIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN 36 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES NORTH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF COAST. THE PERSISTANT STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE\r\nJAVIER TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS\r\nFORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD\r\nTHE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE GUNS CONSENSUS...WHICH EXCLUDES THE WEAK\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS...REMAINS THE BASIS OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 18.8N 109.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 109.6W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N 110.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.8N 111.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 22.9N 112.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 25.5N 114.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 29.0N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":22,"Date":"2004-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. JAVIER IS EXPECTED MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 96 HOURS......A REDUCTION IN\r\nSPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS JAVIER MOVES\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND COOLER STABLE AIR GETS DRAWN INTO\r\nTHE SYSTEM FROM WEST. AFTER 72 HOURS...JAVIER WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nMUCH COLDER WATER AND THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE\r\nQUICKLY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 19.2N 109.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N 110.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.3N 111.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 23.5N 112.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 25.9N 114.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 27.8N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 29.2N 115.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":23,"Date":"2004-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY OF JAVIER SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED BETTER BANDING FEATURES AND THE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nIS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT THAN FROM PREVIOUS IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTED A\r\nMORE RAGGED SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE AMONG CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS GIVES JAVIER AN APPROXIMATE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KTS. THE ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE RUN BY AFWA ALSO INDICATES 100 KTS...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. JAVIER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD AROUND A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE EXTENDED\r\nPERIOD...THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPENS AND MOVES JAVIER\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PUNTA EUGENIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MOVES\r\nJAVIER PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE AND WITH WIND RADII EXTENDING 100\r\nMILES OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY\r\nIMPACT THESE COASTAL AREAS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM 24-72 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM 0-72 HRS REMAINS GENERALLY\r\nUNCHANGED AS IT FOLLOWS CONU...GUNS...AND GUNA. HOWEVER...IN THE\r\nEXTENDED PERIOD...A MORE NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK WAS\r\nMADE AS JAVIER MOVES INTO A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.\r\n\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS JAVIER MOVES\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. AFTER 72 HOURS...JAVIER WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE\r\nQUICKLY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES CLOSER TO THE\r\nDEEPENING MID-LEVEL WEST COAST TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS JAVIER\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM BEYOND 48 HOURS AND FURTHER WEAKENS IT TO\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N 110.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N 110.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.8N 111.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 24.1N 113.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 26.5N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W    30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 31.0N 114.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":24,"Date":"2004-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICTED A PERSISTANT SMALL...\r\nPARTIALLY OPEN...10 NM EYE WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE RESIDING\r\nOVER THE WEST PERIPHERY. A RECENT TRMM AND AMSR-E PASSES INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE EYEWALL WAS COMPLETELY INTACT...SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE HAD TAKEN PLACE. SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND EARLY\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO REVEAL THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME RELATIVELY\r\nCLOUD-FREE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5 FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA...AND 5.0 FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT\r\n100 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.   \r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE PASSES AND THE 12Z BD ENHANCEMENT INFRARED IMAGE\r\nSUPPORT A SLIGHT REPOSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. WITH THE SLIGHT TRACK ADJUSTMENT...INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n315/5 KT. AS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE EAST OVER MEXICO...INFLUENCING JAVIER\r\nON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A\r\nREDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE\r\nTO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.\r\nBY DAY 5...JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A REMNANT LOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 19.6N 110.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.3N 111.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 112.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 22.6N 113.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 24.0N 114.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 27.0N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 28.5N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 31.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":25,"Date":"2004-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nVISIBLE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE 20 NM EYE IS BECOMING\r\nCLOUD-FILLED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL INDICATES WELL DEVELOPED\r\nOUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 102 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM TAFB. ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS\r\nWARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST\r\nQUADRANT...AND THE DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 77 KT AND 90 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 95\r\nKT...DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE VISIBLE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. COOLER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE JAVIER TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY BEYOND THE 48\r\nHOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 320/5 KT. AS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ON A\r\nNORTHWARD DRIFT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...A BUILDING\r\nMID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AROUND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD...A REDUCTION\r\nIN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BEYOND\r\nDAY 3...JAVIER SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ULTIMATELY...WEAKEN TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nIS BASED OFF OF THE CONU CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 20.1N 111.2W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.9N 111.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 112.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 23.2N 113.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 24.7N 114.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 29.5N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":26,"Date":"2004-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004\r\n \r\nTHE LAST VISIBLE ANIMATIONS FOR TODAY SHOWED A VERY CLEAR AND\r\nDISTINCT EYE. THE WELL DEVELOPED OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE NORTH\r\nAND SOUTH QUADRANTS ARE STILL PRESENT. ENHANCED BD INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nDEPICTS COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT..DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE INCREASED\r\nTO 100 KTS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE JAVIER TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY\r\nBEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nWHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT. THIS APPEARS TO BE A SHORT TERM WOBBLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT AND THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK TO A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THIS BRINGS THE FORECAST TRACK A\r\nLITTLE CLOSER TO THE BAJA PENISULA...BUT STILL PARALLEL TO THE\r\nCOASTLINE.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME...A BUILDING\r\nMID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AROUND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD...A REDUCTION\r\nIN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BEYOND\r\nDAY 3...JAVIER SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ULTIMATELY...WEAKEN TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT\r\nDISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST... AND IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 20.9N 111.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 21.7N 111.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 22.8N 112.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.8N 113.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 25.3N 114.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 31.6N 113.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 34.1N 111.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":27,"Date":"2004-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST BD ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW AN ASYMMETRICAL JAVIER.\r\nTHE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS DOMINATE THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND JAVIER\r\nLOOKS TO HAVE STRETCHED A BIT ALONG A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LINE.\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA GIVE A CONSENSUS OF\r\n100 KTS. THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ALSO\r\nCONCURS WITH THE FORECAST CENTER ESTIMATES...HENCE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KTS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 325/7 KT AS JAVIER HAS MOVED IN A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH AN OCCASIONAL WOBBLE. OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING JAVIER\r\nPARALLEL TO THE BAJA PENINSULA COASTLINE ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. BEYOND 48\r\nHRS...JAVIER IS PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR CENTRAL BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM\r\nA DEEPENING MID-LEVEL WEST COAST TROUGH BUILDS. IN THE EXTENDED\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE VORTEX TRACKERS\r\nLOSE THE CIRCULATION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF JAVIER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 0-72 HRS\r\nAND BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF JAVIER WILL\r\nBE QUICKLY SWEPT WELL INTO THE WESTERN STATES.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK OF JAVIER WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE IT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. JAVIER WILL TRACK INTO MUCH COOLER SSTS AS IT NEARS\r\nCENTRAL BAJA AND AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH. THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS JAVIER AT HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN THE 0-36 HR TIME FRAME AS IT STAYS IN ABOVE 25 DEGREE\r\nCELSIUS SSTS. BEYOND 36 HRS...THE SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS ARE\r\nVERY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND JAVIER RAPIDLY WEAKENS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS SCENARIO. \r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE RE-ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 21.4N 111.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 22.2N 112.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 23.6N 113.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 25.4N 114.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 27.5N 114.1W    55 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 33.0N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":28,"Date":"2004-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF JAVIER IS NO LONGER\r\nVISIBLE...WITH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY\r\nASYMMETRIC IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  IN FACT...A MICROWAVE PASS\r\nAT 0954Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF JAVIER IS SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSATELLITE FIXES.  ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED...CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT\r\n15 KT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nDECREASING AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. \r\n \r\nJAVIER CONTINUES AT ABOUT 325/7 AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.   A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO ERODE THE RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION SOON THEN MORE TO THE NORTH BEYOND 24 HOURS...\r\nBRINGING THE HURRICANE CLOSE TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE GFS IS THE\r\nLEFT-MOST SOLUTION KEEPING THE CENTER OFFSHORE THRU 48 HOURS WHILE\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER WITH JAVIER ONSHORE IN ABOUT\r\n30 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE CENTER NEARING THE MEXICAN\r\nCOASTLINE IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 36 HOURS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nCONU.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...WE ARE HOLDING OFF RECOMMENDING WATCHES FOR MEXICO UNTIL\r\nA BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL POSITION IS OBTAINED FROM VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH\r\nJAVIER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM EARLY TOMORROW.  A COMBINATION OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE 36-48 HOUR PERIOD.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD UP A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SHIPS IN THE 36\r\nHOUR TIMEFRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND INTENSITY.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BRING LOCALLY\r\nHEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS\r\nSUNDAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 21.8N 112.3W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 22.8N 113.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 26.4N 114.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 29.5N 114.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N 112.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":29,"Date":"2004-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER IS A SMALL HURRICANE...OCCASIONALLY DISPLAYING A WARM SPOT ON\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES IN A CDO PATTERN. A CONFIRMATION OF THE SIZE WAS\r\nRECEIVED FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 1400Z AND WAS USED TO REDUCE THE\r\nWIND RADII OF THE CYCLONE. MICROWAVE PICTURES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS A BIT SOUTHWEST OF THE SATELLITE POSITION\r\nESTIMATES.  T-NUMBERS ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT BETWEEN THE T/CI NUMBERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT SAME AS PREVIOUS...320/6...\r\nWITH NO SIGN YET OF THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN. THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES LIKELY TO ERODE THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF JAVIER. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SPREAD IN THE\r\nCOMPUTER MODELS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE UKMET TURNING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER THE UKMET HAS HAD A BIT OF A NORTHWARD BIAS WITH JAVIER AND\r\nOTHER GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLOWER AND MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORING A WEAKER CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MORE\r\nRAPID DIMINSHMENT OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND UNDER INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  ON THIS TRACK THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BRING\r\nHEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS\r\nSUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 22.1N 112.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 113.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 24.6N 114.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 27.0N 114.1W    50 KT...NEAR BAJA COASTLINE\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 37.0N 112.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":30,"Date":"2004-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 17 2004\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT \r\nCLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION EARLER SEEN\r\nIN THE CDO PATTERN ARE NOW WARMING...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE \r\nIS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 330/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE OFFICAIL\r\nFORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BASED ON THE\r\nMORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION AS NOTED BY VISIBLE SATELLITE \r\nIMAGERY. JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL HIGH FOR 36 \r\nHOURS...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS\r\nSOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ON THIS TRACK...JAVIER IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA SPUR IN\r\n24-30 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE U.S.\r\nDESERT SOUTHWEST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nMORE RAPID WEAKENING AS JAVIER MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND\r\nUNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 22.7N 112.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 23.8N 113.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 25.9N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 31.8N 113.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 39.0N 111.3W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Javier","Adv":31,"Date":"2004-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT JAVIER IS\r\nBEGINNING TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS...BUT IT IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE\r\nSATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/7. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING SINCE JAVIER HAS\r\nBASICALLY REMAINED ON TRACK. JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL HIGH. BY 24-36 HOURS... A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA\r\nCOAST AND ACT TO TURN JAVIER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BRING THE\r\nCENTER ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE NORTHERN SEA OF CORTEZ\r\n...AND INTO EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nRAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER\r\nWATER. JAVIER MAY NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES\r\nWEST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL LIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PERHAPS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 23.3N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 24.5N 113.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 26.8N 113.6W    40 KT...INLAND WESTERN BAJA\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 29.3N 113.0W    30 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 33.6N 112.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":32,"Date":"2004-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER IS WEAKENING RATHER QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS ALL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES\r\nSHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...LIKELY ACCELERATING THE WEAKENING PROCESS.\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DECREASING QUICKLY AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT... A BLEND OF THE T/CI\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nA RECENT TRMM PASS AT 1200Z SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS\r\nBEEN A LITTLE WEST OF OUR PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE NEW MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 330/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER\r\nWEST IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT MOVEMENT AND IS JUST WEST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS MODEL IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER AS IT\r\nDELAYS LANDFALL UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  IF THE GFS IS CORRECT\r\nJAVIER MIGHT NOT BE A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES WEST-CENTRAL\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...AND DECREASING \r\nWATER TEMPERATURES.  AFTERWARD INTERACTIONS WITH LAND WILL BRING\r\nUPON A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...JAVIER WILL\r\nLIKELY BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS EARLY\r\nAS SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 23.7N 113.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 25.1N 113.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 28.1N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 31.5N 112.8W    25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":33,"Date":"2004-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER IS DEGENERATING INTO A LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\nABOUT 40 KT AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE IS CONTINUING TO\r\nWEAKEN.  IN ADDITION SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE PLUMMETING AS FAST AS\r\nTHE DVORAK RULES ALLOW SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE\r\nQUIKSCAT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  \r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 350/7.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS THAT\r\nMODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER IN ACCELERATING JAVIER INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS\r\nSHIFT.  THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL... A SCENARIO WHICH COULD HAPPEN IF THE MOTION\r\nSTAYS SLOW AND CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN THIS EVENING.  \r\n\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION SST ANALYSES FROM NCEP SHOW THAT JAVIER IS\r\nPARALLELING THE 26C ISOTHERM.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS INCREASING.... IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION COULD FIRE TONIGHT...\r\nKEEPING JAVIER NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THIS CONSERVATIVE SCENARIO ALTHOUGH IT\r\nIS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  REGARDLESS OF INTENSITY...JAVIER'S MOISTURE\r\nSHOULD ENHANCE HEAVY RAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nTOMORROW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 24.4N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 25.9N 113.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 28.7N 113.0W    30 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 31.5N 112.4W    25 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N 111.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":34,"Date":"2004-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 18 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER REMAINS A LOW CLOUD SWIRL THIS EVENING WITH NO BURST OF ANY\r\nDEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35\r\nKT FROM SAB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. IN ADDITION...AN AUTOMATED SURFACE\r\nOBSERVING SITE NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO SUPPOSEDLY WITHIN THE RADIUS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REPORTED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 42\r\nKM/HR...23 KNOTS AROUND 1930 UTC. SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO 35-40 KM/HR...20 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION\r\n...JAVIER IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING TO THE RIGHT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/10. MODELS ARE CONTINUING\r\nWITH THEIR TREND OF TRACKING JAVIER AT A CONSISTENT 10-12 KNOTS \r\nINTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA AND \r\nTHE SEA OF CORTEZ BEFORE DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF \r\nNORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA IN 36 HOURS.  HEAVY RAINS ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TOMMORROW AND MONDAY AS\r\nRESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM JAVIER INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER \r\nLEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/JARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 25.3N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 26.9N 113.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 29.2N 112.6W    25 KT...SEA OF CORTEZ\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 32.0N 111.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":35,"Date":"2004-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER HAS NOT GENERATED ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS\r\nNOW...BUT THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z STILL SHOWED SOME WINDS OF CLOSE\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND WITH THE CENTER ONLY ABOUT 6 HOURS\r\nFROM LANDFALL...IT WILL DO NO HARM TO CONTINUE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nADVISORIES UNTIL THEN.  THERE COULD ALSO BE A BRIEF RESURGENCE OF\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE LONG ENOUGH TO REGAIN\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/9...AND\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE\r\nREMNANT LOW CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN ARIZONA AFTER 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 26.1N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 27.4N 112.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 29.2N 111.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":36,"Date":"2004-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 19 2004\r\n \r\nJAVIER MADE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING\r\nSOUTH OF SAN IGNACIO. THE GFS FROM YESTERDAY HAD THE RIGHT IDEA..\r\nKEEPING THE SYSTEM'S MOTION SLOW UNTIL LANDFALL AND ALLOWING IT TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION. THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF JAVIER IS FILLED WITH COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS AND HAS\r\nNOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR OVER 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE IT HAS DISSIPATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THERE COULD BE A\r\nBRIEF RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA ALONG WITH SOME TOPOGRAPHICALLY-FORCED CONVECTION OVER\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER... WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PLENTY\r\nOF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR...REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW OF JAVIER IS LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT\r\nABOUT 15 MPH.  THE MAIN DANGER WITH THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE INLAND\r\nFLOODING...SPREADING FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHWEST MEXICO\r\nINTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.  THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN\r\nARIZONA AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM. BECAUSE OF THE FLOODING THREAT TO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED\r\nSTATES...FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP3 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ33 KWNH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 27.5N 112.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 29.3N 111.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 31.5N 111.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOW THAT A\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THE DISTURBED WEATHER AREA TO THE SOUTH OF CABO\r\nSAN LUCAS.  THERE IS ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CENTER IS\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CONVECTION...TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nINFLUENCED BY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMPLE AT THIS TIME.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...SO A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO\r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION COULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE\r\nSTEERING.  IF THIS IS CONFIRMED...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MAY BE NECESSARY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 13.9N 112.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 04 2004\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS AN ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE WITH CONVECTION ONLY IN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS PATTERN IS DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR CAUSING A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED CENTER.  DESPITE THE SHEAR...\r\nEARLIER CIMSS/CIRA AMSU ANALYSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NEAR\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THOUGH THERE IS NO SUPPORT IN THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM ANY AGENCY.  THE DEPRESSION IS KEPT AT 30 KT\r\nWITH ALL INDICATIONS TOWARD IT BECOMING A STORM OVERNIGHT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE WESTERLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...\r\n280/13.  GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY HELPFUL WITH THE\r\nUKMET/NOGAPS POORLY INITIALIZING THE CENTER AND THE GFS/GFDL HAVING\r\nMUCH TOO SLOW OF AN INITIAL MOTION.  HOWEVER A STRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nKEEPING IT MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE\r\nPRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  IF THIS DISTURBANCE WERE TO DEVELOP\r\nIT COULD INDUCE A MOTION A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.  FOR NOW THE TRACK FORECAST WILL STAY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE FAST BAMS SUITE\r\nAND THE MUCH SLOWER GFDL/GFS MODELS.  \r\n\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR ABOUT\r\n36-48 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER HIGH LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  SHIPS SLOWLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH WHICH COULD ALLOW\r\nFOR MORE STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AND OVERALL UNCERTAINTY...ONLY A MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nSHOWN...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 14.1N 113.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.3N 115.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 14.5N 118.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 14.5N 120.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N 124.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 14.5N 128.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING. AFTER A\r\nBRIEF BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...\r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED AND TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSLIGHTLY. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB\r\n...AND 30 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT\r\n30 KT UNTIL A BETTER DEFINED CONVECTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS. THIS\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS NOTED IN\r\nA 05/0126Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/11. THE INITIAL POSITION IS\r\nBASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE RECENT QUIKSCAT AND 05/0431Z\r\nTRMM MICROWAVE POSITIONS. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE\r\nTD-14E WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nKEEPS A WEAK CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A\r\nTAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL\r\nAND DEEP BAM MODELS. THE NOGAPS SOLUTION OF TAKING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WAS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE DEEP EASTERLY LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE MODERATE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED. AFTERWARDS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO ONLY\r\n5-10 KT...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED...WHICH IS STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED DUE\r\nTO A LOWER INTENSITY EARLY ON THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE LARGER\r\nWIND RADII IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGH 36H IS DUE TO THE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 14.2N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.3N 116.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.3N 118.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 14.3N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 14.2N 123.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 127.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 14.0N 131.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 14.5N 135.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nMAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE\r\nCONVECTION TO YIELD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0...2.5...AND 2.5 FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE AND\r\nSINCE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  IN\r\nFACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER\r\nIS BECOMING MORE SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  IF THIS TREND\r\nPERSISTS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE\r\nREVISED DOWNWARD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11.  THERE IS STILL NO CLEAR\r\nEVIDENCE THAT KAY'S MOTION IS BEING INFLUENCED BY A TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 600 N MI TO ITS WEST.  THUS FAR...\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT APPEARED TO HANDLE THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nVERY WELL.  GIVEN THE LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH WHICH IS FORECAST\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF KAY OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT SEEMS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nDOES NOT SHOW A FAST ENOUGH WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST\r\nIN CASE THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE TURNS OUT TO BE AT LEAST\r\nPARTIALLY CORRECT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 14.7N 115.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.8N 117.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 14.9N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 15.0N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES CONFIRM WHAT WAS SUSPECTED JUST AFTER\r\nRELEASE OF THE MORNING ADVISORY PACKAGE WAS RELEASED...THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM\r\nTHE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THAT AREA OF CONVECTION HAS\r\nDISSIPATED...AND KAY IS NOW A SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL WITH A FEW NEW\r\nCELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT ARE BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST...SHOWING NO CHANGE OVER\r\nTHE PERIOD...REFLECTS THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER KAY WILL\r\nREGENERATE OR DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nIT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT KAY WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER AREA\r\nOF DISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST.  THIS WEATHER AREA HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP\r\nINTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WNW AT 10-11 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND PRESUMES THAT KAY...IF IT\r\nSURVIVES...WILL BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nWELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 15.2N 116.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.6N 118.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.7N 120.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.8N 121.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 05 2004\r\n \r\nKAY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN UNDER STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WITH THE\r\nCENTER REMOVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS\r\nDVORAK RULES ALLOW.  GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE NORTHERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR PERSISTS.  HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nABATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A BIT OF A COMEBACK. \r\nTHIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST.  ALTERNATIVELY... THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD SPIN DOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW AND BE ABSORBED INTO\r\nTHE LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  \r\n\r\nSINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM...MORE WEIGHT IS BEING PLACED ON THE BAMS MODEL WHICH IS\r\nOFTEN USEFUL FOR WEAK SYSTEMS.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN\r\nRATHER POOR...CONSISTENTLY MOVING KAY SLOWLY AND TOO FAR TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND BAMS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 15.5N 117.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N 118.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 16.1N 120.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.2N 122.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 16.3N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 16.5N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 16.5N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 06 2004\r\n \r\nKAY IS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION HAS\r\nWEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEEN\r\nREDUCED TO JUST A SMALL PUFF IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST\r\nWHILE MEANDERING NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS GIVEN THE VERY POOR PRESENTATION IN INFRARED AND NIGHTTIME\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/04...EVEN THOUGH KAY HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nLOSING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ITS\r\nVERTICAL STRUCTURE IS BECOMING QUITE SHALLOW. AS SUCH...THERE MAY\r\nBE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY\r\nREDEVELOP AND DEEPEN THE VORTEX AND CAUSE IT TO BE STEERED\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE TAKE KAY WESTWARD AND THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN FOLLOWED.\r\nHOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WOULD LIKELY ONLY HAPPEN IF THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMES VERTICALLY DEEP AGAIN...AND THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nKAY IS GETTING HAMMERED BY MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL ENTRAINMENT OF VERY DRY AIR WITH\r\nHUMIDITY VALUES OF 15 TO 20 PERCENT. IN ADDITION...MOST THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST IS BEING DRAWN INTO A WELL-DEFINED\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 13N 128W...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO\r\nTHE EAST IS BEING DRAWN INTO A LARGE CIRCULATION NEAR 11N 101W. THE\r\nBOTTOM LINE IS THAT KAY MAY NOT SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS OF RATHER\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 16.0N 117.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.2N 118.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.3N 120.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 16.3N 121.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.4N 123.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 127.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 16.5N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 06 2004\r\n\r\nKAY IS A SMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL...AND MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE SOME MORE ISOLATED\r\nCONVECTIVE FLAREUPS...IT IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nREMNANT LOW OF KAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY WESTWARD WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GRADUALLY LOSE ITS\r\nIDENTITY.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 16.1N 117.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 118.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 16.7N 120.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.7N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-10-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED \r\nA SHORT DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS\r\nACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH A REASONABLE\r\nAMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HENCE THE SYSTEM IS BEING NUMBERED AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER\r\nGUATEMALA IS IMPARTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS HAVE BEEN QUITE WEAK OVER THE AREA...BUT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEGUN A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.  A CONTINUED GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST SINCE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD REMAIN\r\nOFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DEVELOPS...WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO LATER TODAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 14.4N  96.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.4N  97.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.3N  97.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.2N  98.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.2N  99.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 103.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-10-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 11 2004\r\n \r\nA 11/2345Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY SHOWED THAT TD-15E HAS MOVED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION. IT ALSO INDICATED A SMALL\r\nBUT TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED ABOUT HALF WAY\r\nAROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS WOULD SUPPORT THE T2.5...OR 35\r\nKT...INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB. HOWEVER...I AM HOLDING THE\r\nINTENSITY AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION ...\r\nALBEIT QUITE COLD AT -80C AND COLDER...HAS ONLY PERSISTED FOR \r\nFOR THE PAST 4 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE SPECIFIC\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP SINCE THE MODELS AT 12Z AND\r\n18Z EITHER INITIALIZED THE CENTER TO FAR EAST LIKE NOGAPS...OR\r\nBARELY INITIALIZED IT AT ALL LIKE THE UKMET AND CANDIAN MODELS. THE\r\nGFS DID INITIALIZE THE VORTEX PROPERLY...BUT IT QUICKLY WEAKENS IT\r\nAND ALLOWS IT TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT\r\nTYPICALLY LIES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS\r\nHEAVILY TOWARD THE MEDIUM BAM AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nMODELS...AND THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL BUT TIGHT LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD AS\r\nNOTED IN EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS. AS SUCH...IT IS SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nSTRENGTH. THE CURRENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY HAVE VERTICALLY\r\nSTRETCHED THE VORTEX ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM WINDS NEAR\r\nAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION PRECLUDES NAMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER 29C-30C SSTS AND UNDER LESS THAN 10 KT\r\nOF SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS IN\r\nORDER. IF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR EAST OF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT GET DRAWN\r\nINTO THE SYSTEM...THEN MORE INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AFTER 36HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 14.9N  97.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.0N  98.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 15.1N  99.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 15.2N 100.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N 102.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N 105.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 110.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-10-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DISPLAYS FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO\r\nSUGGEST THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E\r\nCURRENTLY COVERS ONLY A SMALL AREA NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A 0438Z AMSU OVERPASS...WHICH SHOWED\r\nTHE CENTER EXPOSED SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  SINCE THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION\r\nIS LESS THAN 6 HR AGO...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/6.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO 17N100W...WHILE A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC N OF 15N FROM\r\n105W-130W.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH WILL MOVE\r\nWESTWARD...WHILE A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD...PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 36-48 HR AND THEN AWAY FROM THE COAST.  THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nBOTH CALL FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CLOSE TO THE COAST...AS\r\nDOES THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS NO 00Z NOGAPS RUN\r\nAVAILABLE...AND ITS 18Z RUN CALLED FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AWAY\r\nFROM THE COAST.  WITHOUT SEEING THE NEW NOGAPS...THERE IS A\r\nRELUCTANCE TO SHIFT THE FORECAST TRACK TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT. \r\nTHUS...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFS AND UKMET.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT IF THE GFS AND UKMET VERIFY...THE CENTER WOULD COME\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER\r\nTODAY...AND TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ONSHORE.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...IT IS\r\nCURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS\r\nNOT YET DEVELOPING ITS OWN OUTFLOW PATTERN.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT AN ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM FROM 24-72\r\nHR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS\r\nCALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR AND\r\nFASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT\r\nSHEAR WILL INCREASE AFTER 72 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SLIGHT WEAKENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THAT.  AS NOTED EARLIER...\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E IS A SMALL CYCLONE AND COULD SHOW RAPID\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH BOTH UP AND DOWN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 15.0N  98.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N  98.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 100.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.6N 101.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.8N 102.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-10-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004\r\n\r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES DO NOT INDICATE MUCH INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW FURTHER WEST.  THIS IMPLIES INCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE\r\nPROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...AND THE FACT THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO STRENGTHEN THUS FAR...WE HAVE BACKED OFF A\r\nLITTLE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES...THE CENTER POSITION IS UNCERTAIN. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6.  RADIOSONDE OBSERVATIONS\r\nOVER MEXICO SHOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINS THIS\r\nREGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TRACK MODEL\r\nFORECAST SUITE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER\r\nOFFSHORE...BUT THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII\r\nREQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 15.6N  98.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N  99.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.3N 100.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 101.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.2N 104.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":5,"Date":"2004-10-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH BANDING OF DEEP CONVECTION TO YIELD\r\nA DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...EQUATING TO A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED ON THIS BASIS. \r\nCONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER\r\nWILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES\r\nINLAND...THE STORM WOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES COULD LEAD TO INCREASED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nBASED ON AN EARLIER TRMM PASS...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  MOTION IS\r\nNOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/6...AND ONLY A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE.  THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN.  PERHAPS THERE IS SOME\r\nINFLUENCE FROM A LOW PRESSURE AREA A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF LESTER.  IN ANY EVENT...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SINCE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 16.3N  99.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 100.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.9N 101.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.1N 101.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N 102.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 108.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":6,"Date":"2004-10-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE OCT 12 2004\r\n \r\nLESTER REMAINS A VERY SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM BASED\r\nON SURFACE AND RADAR DATA FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND A 12/2248Z TRMM\r\nOVERPASS. ALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES REPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T3.0...OR 45 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 40 KT...BUT IS KEPT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nDUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND A HIGHEST REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF\r\nONLY 21 KT AT ACAPULCO AT 12/2145Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/05. LESTER HAS REMAINED ON TRACK\r\nAS IT MOVES SLOWLY AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 22N LATITUDE...BASED ON 13/00Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nRIDGE REMAINING INTACT AND STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN TWO DEEP MID-LEVEL LOWS...ONE\r\nWEST OF BAJA AND ONE OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MAIN\r\nDIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS LIES IN THE LOCATION AND THE ORIENTATION\r\nOF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE FARTHEST NORTH...\r\nWHICH RESULTS IN LESTER REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST...\r\nWHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE GFS\r\nMODEL WHICH QUICKLY DISSIPATES LESTER.\r\n\r\nSINCE LESTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...\r\nWHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE\r\nUNLIKELY. ALSO...A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 140 NMI\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...COMBINED WITH LAND INTERACTION\r\nTO THE NORTH...MAY SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPT THE INFLOW. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE 00Z SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 16.5N  99.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 100.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 101.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 102.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 105.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 107.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 18.5N 109.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":7,"Date":"2004-10-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED OCT 13 2004\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO INDICATES THAT LESTER RETAINS A\r\nSMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED CIRCULATION...WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C JUST EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45\r\nKT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/7.  LESTER IS MOVING\r\nALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 20N-\r\n21N...AND IS NORTHEAST OF A LARGE BUT POORLY ORGANIZED AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO HOLD\r\nFOR 24-48 HR...THEN STRENGTHEN WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP LESTER\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR 24-48 HR...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A WESTWARD MOTION FROM 48-96 HR.  AFTER 96 HR...LESTER MAY\r\nAPPROACH THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...WHICH WOULD AGAIN ALLOW A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  WHILE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL\r\nMOTION...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN JUST HOW FAR NORTH LESTER WILL\r\nTRACK BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD DUE TO HOW THEY HANDLE INTERACTION\r\nBETWEEN LESTER AND THE DISTURBANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nNUDGED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nNOGAPS AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.  THE TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER\r\nMOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR ABOUT 24 HR BEFORE IT\r\nGRADUALLY GETS FARTHER AWAY.  HOWEVER...ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE.\r\n \r\nLESTER IS EXPERIENCING LIGHT-MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY PERSIST\r\nFOR 48 HR BEFORE DECREASING.  SINCE LESTER HAS STRENGTHENED DESPITE\r\nTHE SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR\r\n48 HR...WITH THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE SHEAR\r\nDIMINISHES.  THIS BASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.  LESTER WILL\r\nLIKELY REMAIN A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THUS IT\r\nWILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...INCLUDING\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IN THE 72-120\r\nHR TIMEFRAME WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 16.8N 100.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 17.1N 101.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.2N 102.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 103.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.2N 104.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 106.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 108.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.0N 110.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":8,"Date":"2004-10-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 13 2004\r\n \r\nTHE BIG QUESTION CONCERNING LESTER THIS MORNING IS...WHERE IS THE\r\nCENTER?  RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THAT CITY...AND LESTER\r\nSHOULD NOW BE LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO.  HOWEVER\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO IMPLY THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE STATION.  THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO MIGHT NOT\r\nBE REPRESENTATIVE BECAUSE OF TOPGRAPHIC INFLUENCES.  CURRENT\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR DO NOT DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER.  THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE ALSO AMBIGUOUS...SINCE THEY\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE BROAD LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LESTER IS THE\r\nDOMINANT CIRCULATION.  GIVEN THE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CENTER\r\nPOSITION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT LESTER IS STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT.  THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN...A ZONALLY-ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATE THAT A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD DEVELOP SOON.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CURRENT AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...\r\nTHE WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IF THE\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT...AND THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE\r\nCOAST...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...LESTER MAY HAVE BECOME SO DISRUPTED\r\nBY ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND THAT IT WILL NOT SURVIVE.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE LESTER THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 16.8N 100.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.9N 101.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 101.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 110.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lester","Adv":9,"Date":"2004-10-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 13 2004\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT LESTER HAS DEGENERATED\r\nINTO A TROUGH ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA...AND IS THEREFORE DISSIPATING.  THE REMNANTS OF THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE COULD GENERATE SOME MORE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON LESTER FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 16.5N 101.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2004-10-25 22:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n3 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 1004 MB ARE BASED ON OFFSHORE WINDS OF 20 KT FROM\r\nMAZATLAN LOCATED 130 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A PRESSURE OF\r\n1005.4 MB FROM LA PAZ LOCATED 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION AND DEPTH IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH NUMEROUS\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NOTED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/16. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. AN\r\nAPPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD ALSO\r\nHELP TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS STATES. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE GENERAL\r\nVICINITY OF ALTATA MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.\r\n\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD INHIBIT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALREADY ENOUGH COLD\r\nCONVECTION TO POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO IT MAKING LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nNOTE...THE PRIMARY THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM\r\nTHIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO\r\nLATER TONIGHT...AND INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND\r\nTHURSDAY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2200Z 23.3N 108.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.6N 107.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.6N 105.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 32.0N 102.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2004-10-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 25 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR DATA FROM\r\nGUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CYCLONE REMAINS STRONGLY\r\nSHEARED WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON\r\nA DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0...OR 30 KT...FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND A 29-KT WESTERLY WIND REPORT AT 26/00Z FROM SHIP\r\nZCDF8 LOCATED ABOUT 95 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER IN A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREGION. WHILE IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT HIGHER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER...THE DEPRESSION IS NOT BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN\r\nRATHER LOW WITH MAZATLAN REPORTING 1005.6 MB AT 25/2343Z. ALSO...\r\n12-FT SEAS RADII WERE ADDED BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP NJBZ.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/16. TD-16E IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 6H...AND THEN\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE GETS PICKED UP BY AN APPROACHING\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION...AND WITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION MOVING\r\nACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nSTATES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE\r\nCURRENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRES...FORECAST POINTS AT 24 AND 36 HOURS\r\nWERE INCLUDED TO REFLECT THE POSITION OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nSINCE SOME OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO\r\nPORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND INTO TEXAS\r\nAND OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nLITTLE TIME REMAINS FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE\r\nGUASAVE RADAR INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT\r\n90 NMI EAST OF LA PAZ MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IF THE TWO BECOME SUPERIMPOSED IN THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS...THEN THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BURST OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION DEVELOP THAT COULD POSSIBLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nREACH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STORM STRENGTH JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 24.6N 108.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 27.1N 106.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 30.4N 104.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 34.1N 100.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2004-10-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN SEPARATED FROM THE CORE CONVECTION BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS\r\nSTATIONARY...WHILE THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON TWO SHIP REPORTS\r\nWELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TO REFLECT THE DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE CENTER\r\nFROM THE CONVECTION.  THE UKMET...GFS...AND GFDL SHOW LITTLE\r\nOVERALL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A BAND OF VERY DRY AIR SWEEPING\r\nACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION\r\nOF STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY REDEVELOPMENT EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS ARE OCCURING INLAND OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT ARE\r\nDIMINISHING ALONG THE COASTLINE.  THESE RAINS STILL POSE A THREAT\r\nOF FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 24.5N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 108.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2004-10-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE OCT 26 2004\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED\r\nINLAND NEAR LOS MOCHIS AND DISSIPATED.  THERE ARE\r\nONLY A FEW SMALL AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING AND THESE ARE\r\nARE MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 26.3N 108.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-06-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED A\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS NEAR 25 TO 30 KT...MOSTLY CONFINED TO CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE\r\nAIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY... DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED TO NARROW BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST....AND\r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ONLY TO THE WEST...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THIS TROUGH AND DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nWITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 6\r\nKT...WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK.  HOWEVER...A RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nGFDL...GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 17.2N  84.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 18.1N  84.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 19.9N  84.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  85.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 24.5N  86.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  88.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 34.0N  88.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 37.5N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-06-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUN 08 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY-ORGANIZED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT\r\nWINDS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THEY DID REPORT ONE 35 KT WIND AT\r\nTHE 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL...ON THEIR LAST OUTBOUND LEG ABOUT 70 N MI\r\nNE OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THAT OBSERVATION...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nHOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES WARRANT ONLY A T1.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 90W...\r\nCONTINUES TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SOME ABATEMENT OF THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL\r\nFORECAST. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...005/05.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nRIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND IN HEADING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL TRACK AND SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER BAM TRACK.  \r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE\r\nOF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME\r\nFRAME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 17.6N  83.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 18.7N  84.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.0N  84.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  85.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 25.8N  86.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  88.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 35.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z...INLAND...DISSIPATED\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-06-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT...OVER ALL...THE WIND FIELD OF\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY\r\nAFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION\r\nREMAIN AT LEAST 75 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nREPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT ARE 34 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NEW NOAA BUOY\r\n42056.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/7.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEVELOPING\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE AN INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 12-24 HR.  THIS MOTION\r\nWILL LIKELY BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST\r\nIN ABOUT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE INTO\r\nTHE WESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME\r\nDIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET...\r\nNOGAPS...AND GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE BROAD WIND STRUCTURE...THE CURRENT LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...\r\nAND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL\r\nSUGGEST THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL. \r\nINDEED...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY\r\nFORECASTING ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL\r\nBOTH CALLING FOR WINDS TO REACH ABOUT 50 KT IN 36-48 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SIMILAR STRENGTHENING UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK SHOWN HERE...BECAUSE\r\nOF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME\r\nFRAME...AS WELL AS THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 18.6N  83.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  84.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  84.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.7N  85.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 27.2N  87.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 31.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 36.5N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-06-09 12:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005\r\n \r\nSHIP 3FFL8 REPORTED 40 KT WINDS WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 130 N MI\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE.  A QUALITY\r\nCONTROL CHECK BY THE OCEAN PREDICITON CENTER SUGGESTED THIS REPORT\r\nWAS ABOUT 5 KT TOO HIGH...BUT STILL OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE.  BASED\r\nON THIS A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ONE TO TROPICAL STORM ARLENE.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIP REPORT REQUIRES A 130 N MI WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT...WHICH IS CARRIED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nEXPANDED WIND RADIUS REQUIRES THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN CUBA TO\r\nBE EXTENDED EASTWARD.  THERE ARE NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1200Z 19.1N  84.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  84.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  84.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.7N  85.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 27.2N  87.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 31.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 36.5N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-06-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUN 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT ARLENE IS SOMEWHEAT SHEARED WITH THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RATHER STRONG\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...WHERE MOST OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE\r\nOCCURRING. THE OVERALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY AND\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nNEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE\r\nAREA LATER TODAY. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nWEAKENS. THIS COULD ALLOW ARLENE TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE REACHING\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST...AS INDICATED BY SHIPS AND THE GFDL\r\nMODELS.     \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF ARLENE IS NOT WELL DEFINED...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nASCERTAIN THE INITIAL MOTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 350 DEGREES AT 7\r\nKNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND MAYBE A TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE\r\nGULF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 19.4N  84.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 23.8N  85.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N  86.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  87.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 34.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 38.5N  85.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-06-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE LOOKS WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING. WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION. IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT THERE ARE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY\r\nINVESTIGATING ARLENE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING WHEN\r\nTHE SHEAR RELAXES AS THE UPPER-TROUGH WEAKENS IN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THAT SHOWS A DECREASE IN\r\nTHE SHEAR WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 350 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6\r\nKNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD...AND THAT PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WHILE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...IT IS NOT AS FAST AS MOST\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIN SUMMARY...ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OR PASS VERY NEAR THE\r\nWESTERN TIP OF CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. IT THEN WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHERE IT\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KNABB\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 20.2N  84.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.5N  84.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N  86.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 26.5N  87.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  88.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 34.5N  87.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 40.0N  83.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-06-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUN 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECON DATA INDICATE THAT ARLENE HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. RECON REPORTED 1500 FT WIND OF 46 KT\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AROUND 2115Z...BUT A SUBSEQUENT PASS\r\nTHROUGH THE SAME AREA REVEALED ONLY 32 KT WINDS. SINCE THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOME AND BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HI-RES VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND RECON DATA INDICATE MULTIPLE SMALL CIRCULATIONS HAVE\r\nBEEN ROTATING AROUND INSIDE A LARGER WELL-DEFINED OUTER CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS AN AVERAGE OF THESE VORTEX\r\nPOSITIONS AND VERY CLOSE TO A 09/2324Z QUIKSCAT CENTER POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT\r\nPOSITION WOULD SUGGEST THAT ARLENE MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...\r\nBUT I HAVE OPTED TO STAY CLOSER TO WHAT DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AND\r\nWITHIN THE RECON VORTEX ENVELOPE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nSTRONG AGREEMENT ON ARLENE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TONIGHT AND\r\nTHEN TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO ON FRIDAY. THIS ANTICIPATED TURN IS IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nCYCLONE BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC...SOUTHEASTERN U.S....AND THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA. ONE CONCERN IS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE IS FORECAST TO GET PINCHED BETWEEN DIGGING TROUGHS OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF AND ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS TYPE OF\r\nBLOCKING PATTERN OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBEING STRONGER...WHICH WOULD HELP TO NUDGE ARLENE A LITTLE MORE\r\nWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND NOAA G-IV JET\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST\r\nAND HAS TEMPORARILY ERODED MOST OF THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE\r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY BACKS AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST...\r\nWHICH WILL BE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE GFDL BRINGS ARLENE UP\r\n63 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY STRENGTHENS\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO 45 KT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST\r\nTO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT WHILE CONTINUING TO BACK...AND THAT\r\nSSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 28-29C UNTIL LANDFALL BASED ON CURRENT BUOY\r\nOBSERVATIONS...ARLENE COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER BETWEEN 36-48\r\nHOURS BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS WHEN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES FROM\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE U.S. GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 20.8N  84.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.6N  85.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 27.7N  87.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  88.6W    55 KT...NEAR MS/AL COAST\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 36.0N  87.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 41.0N  82.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-06-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...\r\nWITH MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IN A POORLY-DEFINED BAND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WIND\r\nCENTER...A 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56\r\nKT AT 850 MB NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  HOW MUCH OF THIS WIND IS\r\nREACHING THE SURFACE IS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE CONVECTION IN THE\r\nAREA IS SOMEWHAT ISOLATED AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH REPORTED 20 KT\r\nWINDS AT 06Z.  HOWEVER...THESE FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nJUSTIFY INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nARLENE HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6 HR AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 340/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A BUILDING\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD STEER ARLENE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL\r\nIT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 36-48 HR.  DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nGENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE\r\nTRACK AND SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR FOLLOWED BY SOME SLOWING AS\r\nARLENE APPROACHES THE COAST.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UKMET AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  ON THE STRENGTHENING\r\nSIDE...LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDECREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS ARLENE MOVES OVER THE\r\nFAIRLY WARM WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nBROAD WIND STRUCTURE AND LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE BOTH ARGUE AGAINST STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE STORM TO REACH 45-50 KT INTENSITY BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL... WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 64 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS...\r\nCALLING FOR ARLENE TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 21.6N  84.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 23.4N  85.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 26.2N  87.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 28.5N  88.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 31.0N  88.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 37.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 42.0N  82.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-06-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS STRENGTHENED WHILE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 64 KT ABOUT 110 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT\r\n1130Z.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...WHICH IS\r\nTHE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII\r\nHAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON THIS DATA...AND BASED UPON A 35\r\nKT REPORT FROM SHIP PFRX AT 1200Z.  THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS\r\nTO BE WEAKENING...AND ARLENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH FORECASTS 60 KT IN\r\n24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ARLENE COULD REACH THE COAST AS A MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY...ARLENE HAS BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY A BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION WITH A POORLY-DEFINED CENTER.  IN FACT...SEVERAL\r\nCENTERS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT RELOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...IS BASED UPON A MEAN OF THE VARIOUS SMALLER\r\nCIRCULATIONS.  DESPITE THE RELOCATION TO THE NORTH...ARLENE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT ACROSS\r\nTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nBUILDING RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION\r\nPROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 24.0N  84.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 26.2N  85.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 28.8N  87.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 31.1N  88.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 33.8N  88.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 40.0N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-06-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO BE 55 KT IN THE TABLE\r\n \r\nARLENE CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER\r\nCORE.  MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nOCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF\r\nSHEARED SYSTEMS.  SHIP AND AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB...AND 850 MB FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS RECENTLY PEAKED AT 69 KT.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 55 KT. IN THE CURRENT MODERATE\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ARLENE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO REACH\r\nHURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL FORWARD SPEED OF MOTION OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nINCREASED...AS ANTICIPATED...AND ARLENE IS NOW MOVING JUST WEST OF\r\nDUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nCONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD FORCE ARLENE ON A MORE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THIS WILL BRING THE CENTER OF ARLENE\r\nTO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS\r\nEMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE IS NORTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO RAIN AND WINDS WILL REACH THE COASTLINE\r\nMUCH EARLIER.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 25.7N  85.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 27.8N  86.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 30.4N  87.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 32.6N  87.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 35.5N  87.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-06-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005\r\n\r\nLAST MINUTE INFORMATION FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER REQUIRED SOME\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING FORECAST TRACK. RECON FOUND A PRESSURE\r\nOF 989 MB IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BUT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL VORTEX\r\nTHAT DEVELOPED BENEATH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS BEEN\r\nROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGER\r\nCYCLONIC GYRE. I AM NOT READY TO KEY IN ON THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION OF THAT CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...SO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION OF 330/14 IS A LONGER TERM BLEND OF RECON AND\r\nSATELLITE POSITIONS AND MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS\r\nBASED ON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUAD.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND\r\nSUBSEQUENT TRACKS MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST\r\nIF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 6\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...MY FEELING IS THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT WOBBLING WILL\r\nOCCUR ALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nOCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nCAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO CONSTANTLY REFORM NEAR NEW\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW.\r\n \r\nTIMING THE VARIOUS CONVECTIVE BURSTS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. HOWEVER\r\n...ARLENE WILL BE GOING INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD LATER\r\nTONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...SO SOME NEW DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD\r\nREDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND POSSIBLY ALLOW THE CYCLONE\r\nTO BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AS ARLENE APPROACHES THE\r\nGULF COAST...SO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 27.1N  86.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 28.7N  87.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 31.0N  88.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 33.5N  88.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 37.0N  87.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-06-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM CDT SAT JUN 11 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nARLENE HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH NO NEW SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS TO REPLACE THE ONE THAT DISSIPATED JUST AFTER\r\n00Z.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FOUND MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 850\r\nMB...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB.  COMPARISON\r\nOF AIRCRAFT WINDS WITH BUOYS AND C-MAN STATIONS SOUTH OF\r\nAPALACHICOLA SUGGESTS THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT BEING MIXED TO\r\nTHE SURFACE AT THE NORMAL 70-80 PERCENT VALUES...AT LEAST AT THAT\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN\r\n60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/16.  ARLENE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH ALL AVAILABLE\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATING THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY RECURVE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  ALL\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ARELENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 12-18 HR.  GRADUAL\r\nRECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHERE SEEM TO BE TWO POSSIBILITIES FOR THE INTENSITY BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THE FIRST IS THAT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST DEVELOPS DURING\r\nTHE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...AND ARLENE MAKES ANOTHER ATTEMPT TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY.  HOWEVER...THE SECOND POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE ABUNDANT\r\nDRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR ARLENE HAS BEEN ENTRAINED\r\nINTO THE STORM AND WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINING\r\nTIME BEFORE LANDFALL.  IF THAT HAPPENS...ARLENE MAY WELL WEAKEN\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ONE MORE FORECAST CYCLE\r\nBEFORE IT BECOMES CLEAR WHICH POSSIBILITY IS OCCURRING.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THAT ARLENE WILL NOT BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT THIS WILL\r\nNOT HAPPEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 28.4N  87.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 30.1N  88.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 32.5N  88.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 35.5N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 39.5N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-06-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE LAST NIGHT.  THE STORM CONTINUES\r\nWITH A WELL-DEFINED AND LARGE CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED TO SOME BANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING AROUND 990 MB ACCORDING TO FIXES FROM \r\nHURRICANE HUNTER PLANES. MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE REMAINED AT 60 KNOTS. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS ESTIMATE MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. DUE TO THE\r\nCURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...IT APPEARS THAT THE CHANCES OF\r\nARLENE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL ARE DECREASING.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WATER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AND \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION...LIKE THE ONE THAT\r\nOCCURRED YESTERDAY...COULD BRING THE WINDS UP TO HURRICANE STATUS.\r\nGIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNING AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nARLENE HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE\r\nSTEERING CURRRENTS IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER OF ARLENE SHOULD\r\nCROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL\r\nARLENE SHOULD WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE SPREADING HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE\r\nTENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE NOT JUST A COASTAL EVENT AND\r\nHEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WELL INLAND AND LONG AFTER THE CENTER\r\nCROSSES THE COAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 29.6N  87.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 31.5N  88.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 34.0N  88.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 37.5N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-06-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF ARLENE CROSSED THE COAST JUST\r\nWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AROUND 1900 UTC. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nREPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL WAS 991 MB...WHICH IS\r\nALSO SIMILAR TO THE PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE PENSACOLA NAVAL AIR\r\nSTATION AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nARLENE HAVE BEEN DECREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT THIS TIME IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE\r\nCONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER. SINCE ARLENE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD AND FARTHER INLAND AT ABOUT\r\n13 KT...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE HAS BEEN MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC TODAY...WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN\r\nFACT...T-NUMBERS TODAY WERE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE\r\nHIGHEST OBSERVED IN ARLENE. THIS COINCIDED WITH A CONTRACTION OF\r\nTHE WIND FIELD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KNABB\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 30.7N  87.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 32.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 36.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arlene","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-06-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUN 11 2005\r\n \r\nARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND\r\nOVER WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA...EVEN THOUGH THE SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nSIGNATURES HAVE IMPROVED. IN FACT...ARLENE LOOKS BETTER NOW THAN IT\r\nDID OVER WATER DURING MOST OF ITS LIFETIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 25 KT IS BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA AND SURROUNDING\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AND ARLENE\r\nCOULD EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE 24 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING WILL STILL BE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT.\r\n \r\nARLENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR\r\nTHE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON ARLENE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND \r\nIN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH...\r\nBEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT...SUNDAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 32.2N  87.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 34.5N  87.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 37.9N  87.2W    15 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200ZT...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-06-28 22:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n6 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A\r\nSMALL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  DESPITE PROBLEMS WITH\r\nCOMMUNICATIONS EQUIPMENT...THE CREW HAS BEEN ABLE TO PHONE IN KEY\r\nOBSERVATIONS.  OUR THANKS TO THE CREW FOR RESPONDING ON SUCH SHORT\r\nNOTICE AND FOR THEIR PERSISTENCE IN TRYING TO GET THE DATA OUT.\r\n\r\nSO FAR...THE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A FEW SMALL SPOTS WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OVER 40 KT...INDICATING THAT THE WINDS ARE VERY NEAR TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  THIS SYSTEM CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME\r\nA TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL...BUT SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED TIME THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE OVER WATER. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTH TEXAS...AND REACH THE MEXICAN\r\nCOASTLINE IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2200Z 19.9N  95.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 20.2N  96.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 20.7N  97.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-06-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2005\r\n \r\nON THEIR LAST PASS THROUGH BRET NEAR 00Z...THE AIRCRAFT CREW\r\nREPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 1005 MB...THAT THE SEA\r\nSTATE LOOKED LESS DISTURBED THAN IT HAD BEEN...AND THAT THE RADAR\r\nPRESENTATION HAD DETERIORATED. THUS IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER\r\nDEVELOPMENT TREND HAS STALLED. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE CDO\r\nFEATURE HAVE ALSO WARMED OVERALL THIS EVENING BUT ARE BEGINNING TO\r\nCOOL AGAIN NOW.  THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.\r\nWINDS ALOFT ARE FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH ARE VERY WARM.\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE SOME MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE\r\nCAUTION...HOWEVER...IS THAT BRET IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND SUCH SYSTEMS CAN SPIN UP...OR DOWN...VERY QUICKLY.\r\n\r\nTHE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT\r\nOVER THE LONGER TERM THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/4.  THIS IS\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND ALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT BRET MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE\r\nTIME OVER WATER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nTEXAS SHOULD KEEP BRET ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK UNTIL IT\r\nMAKES LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL MODEL IS AN OUTLIER IN\r\nFORECASTING BRET TO STALL OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE 850 MB EVOLUTION IN THE LATEST GFS RUN.  BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE OBLIQUE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET WILL BE APPROACHING THE\r\nCOASTLINE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR\r\nTIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 20.0N  95.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 20.3N  96.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 20.9N  97.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  98.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-06-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005\r\n \r\nBRET MAINTAINED FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD A FAIRLY TIGHT\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS DEPICTED IN SSMI\r\nIMAGERY NEAR 03Z...AND SUFFICIENT FOR 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE SINCE WARMED A\r\nBIT NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...BUT LACKING ANY EVIDENCE\r\nTO THE CONTRARY...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. ONLY A\r\nSHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nTHE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\nINDEED...BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL...AND ABRUPT WEAKENING OF THIS SMALL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE 03Z SSMI OVERPASS AND GOES SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT\r\nBRET IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH INITIAL\r\nMOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/7.  AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT TRACK\r\nFORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT BASICALLY ALONG THE SAME HEADING.  WHILE THE GFDL\r\nCONTINUES TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL STALL JUST OFFSHORE...ALL\r\nOTHER TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY MOTION INLAND...WHICH SEEMS\r\nTHE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED.  DUE TO\r\nTHE ANGLE AT WHICH BRET IS APPROACHING THE COASTLINE...IT REMAINS\r\nDIFFICULT TO SPECIFY PRECISELY THE LOCATION OR TIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 20.6N  96.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 21.1N  97.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 21.7N  98.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bret","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-06-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUN 29 2005\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT BRET HAS MOVED INLAND\r\nJUST SOUTH OF...OR VERY NEAR...TUXPAN. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSTILL SHOW A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED\r\nAND BRET IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE\r\nMIGHT BE SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS OVER WATER.\r\n\r\nBRET IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT\r\n7 KNOTS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE CENTER FARTHER INLAND AND\r\nDISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE HAS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS PRIMARILY IN THE MOUNTAINS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 21.0N  97.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bret","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-06-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005\r\n \r\nBRET HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FATHER INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ\r\nMEXICO. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...DATA FROM A FEW WEATHER\r\nSTATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE DECREASING. THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND THEN\r\nDISSIPATE OVER LAND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...MUD\r\nSLIDES AND FLASH FLOODS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 21.8N  98.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 22.5N 100.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bret","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-06-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUN 29 2005\r\n \r\nLAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nOF BRET IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN\r\nLEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND.  WITH THIS...BRET IS LOSING\r\nTHE CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THESE\r\nRAINS COULD STILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND\r\nMUDSLIDES.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 22.3N  98.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 23.0N  98.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-07-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nWEAKENED CONSIDERABLY IN COMPARISON TO EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS\r\nENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION\r\nAND THE EXPECTATION OF THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER YUCATAN\r\nTONIGHT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER\r\nREACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER ON MONDAY.  INTERESTINGLY...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST LITTLE OR NO DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS IT OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOVER THE GULF ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS/GFS GUIDANCE INDICATING VERY WEAK SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PUSH THE\r\nDEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY AND THEN A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...IS\r\nFORECAST.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 18.4N  87.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.0N  88.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.2N  89.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.9N  91.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.7N  92.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N  95.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 30.5N  95.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 33.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-07-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 03 2005\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER INDICATED BY THE LAST RECON REPORT...\r\nWHICH ALSO INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB -- A DROP OF 2 MB\r\nIN 2.5 HOURS. RADAR REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT ALSO INDICATED\r\nSIGNIFICANT BANDING HAD DEVELOPED TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. GIVEN THE SHARP INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...DESPITE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF ONLY 25 KT..MAINLY TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE\r\nTREND CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 6 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE A SLIGHT\r\nJOG TO THE RIGHT...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND/OR SOME WEAK BINARY INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nCHANNEL. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL AGREE THAT THE LATTER FEATURE IS\r\nNOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT STEERING FACTOR AS IT WEAKENS AND\r\nLIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE\r\nGFDL ALSO AGREE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING EAST-WEST ALONG\r\n28N LATITUDE FROM FLORIDA ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL\r\nREMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY\r\nEASTWARD...BUT IN ITS WAKE LEAVE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN GULF ALONG 94-95W LONGITUDE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE THE PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE FOR THE CYCLONE TO TAKE UNTIL IT\r\nNEARS THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA COAST AND IS TURNED SHARPLY NORTHEAST OR\r\nEVEN EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND TO THE LEFT OF THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OF LESS THAN 8 KT AND WARM SSTS NEAR 29C SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODERATE INTENSIFICATION. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nPATTERN ACTUALLY FAVORS MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nBY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR...\r\nWHICH IS DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OF 30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY POSSIBLY\r\nGETTING GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST AFTER 36-48\r\nHOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 18.9N  87.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.7N  88.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.1N  90.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 22.9N  91.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 25.0N  93.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  94.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 31.0N  93.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 33.0N  91.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-07-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS SHOWING INTERESTING STRUCTURAL\r\nDEVELOPMENTS THIS MORNING.  A STRONG AND PERSISTENT AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OVER THE EAST\r\nCENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH SUGGESTS THE INNER CORE IS\r\nGETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE OVERALL\r\nCIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH...WITH A SECOND\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMUM APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nCOAST OF YUCATAN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 25 KT FROM AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COMPLEX\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN.  THE MODELS THAT FORECAST AN ORGANIZED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN...\r\nINDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD TURN TOWARD THE LOUISIANA OR UPPER TEXAS\r\nCOASTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE TROUGH TO THE WEST. \r\nAN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE DEPRESSION CIRCULATION BECOMES\r\nELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND\r\nTHE BAM MODELS.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE SCENARIO FOR A STRONGER\r\nCYCLONE...CALLING FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC.  NONE OF THE LARGE\r\nSCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT EVEN THOUGH ALL OF\r\nTHEM SHOW FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. \r\nTHE REASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...BUT IT MAY BE THAT THE MODELS\r\nARE RESPONDING TO DRY AIR CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nOVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...OR TO THE DISTORTION OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO REACH 50 KT\r\nIN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE JUST\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FORECASTS\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO REACH 55 KT BEFORE LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFDL AND SHIPS.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT LITTLE OR NO\r\nDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 19.6N  88.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 22.4N  90.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 24.1N  92.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 26.2N  93.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 31.5N  92.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-07-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE LOCATION\r\nOF A CENTER...AND SOUNDING DATA FROM MERIDA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nIS TILTED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  MY ADVISORY POSITION AND MOTION\r\nARE HEAVILY WEIGHTED BY CONTINUITY...AND THERE IS LARGE UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THESE VALUES.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER WILL REFORM NEAR\r\nTHE NORTH COAST OF THE PENINSULA.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nPLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM WHEN IT MOVES OFF THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nINSIST THAT NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAY.  HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES AND MOVES\r\nINTO THE GULF...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE HOSTILE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR FLORIDA. \r\nALTHOUGH THE STEERING REGIME DOES NOT LOOK TOO\r\nCOMPLICATED...DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT...RANGING\r\nFROM TRACKS TOWARD NORTHEAST MEXICO TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF\r\nCOAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE VARIOUS\r\nSOLUTIONS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 20.7N  89.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 21.9N  90.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 23.6N  91.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 25.7N  93.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 30.5N  93.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 32.0N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 33.0N  89.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-07-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n\r\nTODAY'S DILEMMA IS THE APPARENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE\r\nNORTH OF YUCATAN...AS SUGGESTED BY HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN UNABLE\r\nTO CLOSE OFF A CENTER AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A BROAD\r\nAREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WHERE THE PRESSURES ARE LOWEST. \r\nAS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...WE WILL ASSUME THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nSTILL IN THE PROCESS OF REFORMING...AND CONTINUE TO ISSUE\r\nADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM. IN ANY EVENT...THIS NORTHWARD\r\nREPOSITIONING FORCES A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST...AND MOVES UP THE TIME OF ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER AT THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS ALSO NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nTO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...I HAVE BACKED\r\nOFF A LITTLE ON THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  MOREOVER...THE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD REFORMATION HAS PUT THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO A LESS\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRIER\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL\r\nAND SHIPS OUTPUT.\r\n\r\nTHE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 22.8N  89.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 24.2N  90.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N  91.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N  91.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 30.2N  92.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 32.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 35.0N  87.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-07-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INNER CORE...WHILE OUTER\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 3-6 HOURS.\r\nA SHIP NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 33 KT WINDS AROUND\r\n18Z...BUT THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION PRECLUDES\r\nINCREASING THE INTENSITY TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nSEEMS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE LACK OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH WILL PROBABLY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. THE\r\nOVERALL CIRCULATION ENVELOPE APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH AS\r\nIT PASSES ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT...OR EAST...COMPARED\r\nTO PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOT AS RESTRICTED AS IT HAS\r\nBEEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS...AND CIRRUS HAS BEEN NOTED\r\nPUSHING MORE WESTWARD. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN...A BATTLE EXISTS BETWEEN VERY DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND THE\r\nVERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR TO THE EAST. THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING\r\nOUT FOR THE MOST PART...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES THAT TREND.\r\nFOR THAT REASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW AND SSTS ARE NEAR 29C. OF COURSE\r\n...BY 26 HOURS...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR THE COAST\r\nOF SOUTHERN LOUSIANA DURING THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM\r\nPERIOD...SO THERE MAY BE ONE LAST DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION AT THAT\r\nTIME WHICH COULD ALLOW TH SYSTEM TO REACH 50 KT OR SO INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE GREATER NEW ORLEANS AREA IS NOT UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 23.9N  89.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 25.6N  90.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 27.6N  90.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 29.4N  91.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.0N  90.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 32.5N  89.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 33.5N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 34.5N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-07-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS BUT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND WINDS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 45 TO 50 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL WITHIN A CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 1002\r\nMB. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nCINDY...THE THIRD NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING..BUT THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME\r\nADDITIONAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS IS INDICATED\r\nBY SHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nCINDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES\r\nAT 12 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BAHAMAS WILL\r\nLIKELY FORCE CINDY ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST AND DUE TO THE IN INITIAL MOTION AND LATEST TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO\r\nTHE RIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 25.6N  90.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 27.3N  90.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 29.3N  90.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.5N  88.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 34.9N  85.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 37.2N  82.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 40.1N  78.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-07-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n\r\nTHE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE NORTH...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD A BIT.\r\n\r\nCINDY REMAINS A RATHER ASYMMETRIC STORM WITH MOST OF THE STRONG\r\nWINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS ABOUT 45 KT.  SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT BECAUSE\r\nOF MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY.\r\n\r\nPREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AND A REEVALUATION OF THE LATEST SLOSH MODEL\r\nRUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 27.0N  90.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.7N  90.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  89.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 31.8N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 33.0N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 36.5N  83.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 40.0N  79.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 43.0N  74.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-07-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nTHE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD A NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A FEW SPOT SURFACE WIND\r\nESTIMATES AROUND 64 KT.  HOWEVER...THE CREW OF THE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED THAT THESE WIND SPEEDS WERE A LITTLE TOO HIGH.  THE\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR-OBSERVED STRUCTURE...CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...ARE MOST CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE CENTER CROSSES\r\nINTO THE MARSHY DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLIGHT BEND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THE\r\nPERIOD AND IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD TO AGREE BETTER\r\nWITH THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED.\r\nPREDICTED STORM SURGE VALUES ARE ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER STORM. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 28.2N  90.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.7N  89.8W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 33.2N  86.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 34.7N  84.1W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 37.0N  78.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 39.5N  71.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-07-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND\r\nBRIEFLY WRAPPED UP AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE FOR ABOUT AN HOUR SO AND\r\nRECON REPORTS INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DECREASED TO 992\r\nMB. REPORTS FROM AN OFFSHORE OIL RIG INDICATED WIND GUSTS TO 99 MPH\r\nHAD OCCURRED AROUND 23Z AT 150 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE THAT TIME THE RADAR SIGNATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND A\r\nRECENT RECON REPORT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 997 MB. ONE\r\nPOSSIBLE EXPLANATION FOR THE WEAKENING IS COLD UPWELLING OCCURRING\r\nOVER THE SHALLOW SHELF WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/11.  CINDY BRIEFLY SLOWED DOWN AS IT\r\nNEARED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 28-29N LATITUDE...BUT NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE STARTED TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND AGREE ON A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY 12-18 HOURS AND GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE\r\nGETS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER\r\nLAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH\r\nCINDY WILL BE OVER \"LAND\" IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. ONCE THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...MORER RAPID\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL\r\nBE NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA/ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...BUT NOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 29.0N  90.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.4N  89.3W    50 KT...NEAR MISS. COAST\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 32.1N  87.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 33.7N  85.2W    25 KT...INLAND BECOMING ET\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 35.1N  82.1W    20 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 38.8N  75.2W    25 KT...NEAR DELMARVA AND ET\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  70.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-07-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n \r\nRADAR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE\r\nFARTHER INLAND OVER LOUISIANA. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL\r\nORGANIZED WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.\r\nHOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS AND\r\nCINDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 035/12. CINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. SO A CONTINUED NORTHEAST TRACK\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED...UNTIL IT\r\nBECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nCINDY HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nSTILL AFFECTING THE COAST. THEREFORE...THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE\r\nKEPT AT THIS TIME BUT MOST LIKELY WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY\r\nAS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER INLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 30.1N  89.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 33.5N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 35.0N  83.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 37.0N  80.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 40.0N  74.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cindy","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-07-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n\r\nSURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NO MORE\r\nTHAN 30 KT...SO THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  ALL\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE DISCONTINUED.  FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND.  THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. IN 48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nCINDY CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...045/12...AND A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nBROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH...IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nAS CINDY HEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE APPALACHIANS...THE\r\nMAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS NOW HEAVY RAIN AND INLAND FLOODING. \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER\r\nON CINDY.  FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER TCPAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...STARTING AT 2100 UTC\r\nTODAY.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 31.4N  88.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 32.6N  87.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 34.2N  85.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 36.0N  81.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 37.8N  78.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 41.0N  73.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-07-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INFORMATION AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND AN EARLIER 31-KT WIND\r\nREPORT FROM ST. LUCIA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN...AND THIS\r\nPATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY GAIN LATITUDE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST FORECAST WHEN THE CENTER NEARS THE SOUTH COAST OF\r\nCUBA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS STRONGLY CONVERGENT ON THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN THEY DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER\r\nTHAT WITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND THE BAM MODELS\r\nBRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE UKMET...GFS...AND\r\nGFDL MOEELS TAKING THE STORM OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE LOWER KEYS IN\r\n96 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN LOOKS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS ALMOST TOO LARGE\r\nFOR SUCH A SMALL CIRCULATION TO INTENSIFY VERY QUICKLY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\n...WHICH BRING THE INTENSITY UP TO ABOUT 70 KT IN 72 HOURS AND 80\r\nKT IN 96 AND 120 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 12.5N  63.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 13.3N  65.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.7N  68.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.3N  71.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 17.8N  74.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  78.5W    65 KT...NEAR SOUTH COAST CUBA\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  81.0W    65 KT...NEAR NORTH COAST CUBA\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 26.0N  83.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-07-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nCENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\nTHERE IS NO SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SO A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nIS INDICATED...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL\r\nMODELS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OF 280 DEGREES\r\nAT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS..AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN\r\nEND OF THE RIDGE. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD THEN BEGIN.\r\nTHIS TRACK WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER CUBA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT...IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 12.6N  64.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 13.2N  66.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N  69.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N  72.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 18.0N  75.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  79.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 25.0N  84.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-07-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND...BASED ON A DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION OF T2.5 FROM TAFB...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED. \r\nTHIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE EVER TO HAVE FOUR NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES\r\nIN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  THE STORM WILL BE IN A LOW-SHEAR AND HIGH\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMAY BE CONSERVATIVE AT THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE IF\r\nANY SKILL IN INTENSITY CHANGE PREDICTION AT DAYS 4-5.\r\n\r\nDENNIS IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 16 KT AS A RESULT OF A\r\nDEEP EASTERLY STEERING FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. \r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A LITTLE DECELERATION IS\r\nPREDICTED.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  BECAUSE OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN LONGER-RANGE TRACK PREDICTIONS...IT IS TOO EARLY TO\r\nSPECULATE ON WHAT PORTIONS OF THE U.S. MIGHT BE THREATENED.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF HISPANIOLA\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 13.3N  66.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.4N  68.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.9N  71.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.4N  74.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 18.9N  76.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  81.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  83.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-07-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS STEADILY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nAT 18Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY. CONVECTION HAD BEEN A BIT ON THE SPOTTY\r\nSIDE EARLIER TODAY...BUT IT HAS SINCE BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER...SO DENNIS SEEMS POISED TO INTENSIFY THIS\r\nEVENING. THE CARIBBEAN SEA AHEAD OF THE STORM IS PLENTY WARM...AND\r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 92 KT...AND GFDL\r\nFORECASTS 76 KT...IN 72 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. DUE\r\nTO THE UNCERTAINTIES WITH INTENSITY FORECASTING...INCLUDING IN THIS\r\nCASE HOW DENNIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGER ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA\r\nAND CUBA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL BUT STILL MAKES DENNIS A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT\r\n290/17. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH THE PRIMARY\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM BEING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED\r\nOVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP...AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSHARPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ALONG BUT A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS BE ISSUED FOR THE\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...AND JAMAICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 14.2N  68.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.4N  70.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.0N  73.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.4N  75.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.9N  78.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  82.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  84.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 26.5N  86.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-07-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nDENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A NOAA RECON REPORT AT 650 MB INDICATED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 05/2114Z\r\nAND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB. USING ABOUT 95 PERCENT OF THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND A T3.0/45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45\r\nKT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15. DENNIS HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED SOMEWHAT...POSSIBLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS AND TAKES\r\nDENNIS BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA AND THEN BETWEEN JAMAICA AND\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES\r\nEAST-WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. HOWEVER...AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MURKY. ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nWEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AS A SHARP\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BEFORE LIFTING OUT SLOWLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. SINCE DENNIS IS A LARGER THAN AVERAGE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN\r\nDAYS 3-5...THE LARGE OUTER CIRCULATION COULD ERODE THE RIDGE EVEN\r\nMORE...RESULTING IN WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS THAN THE 5-8 KT THAT\r\nTHE MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME EASTERN..OR\r\nRIGHT...SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR AND HIGH SST\r\nENVIRONMENT..WHICH UNFORTUNATELY ARE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR PRODUCING\r\nINTENSE HURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...BUT IS LESS THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING DENNIS TO 108 KT IN 96 HOURS AND 113\r\nKT IN 60 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 14.6N  69.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N  71.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.4N  74.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.8N  76.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 20.1N  78.8W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.4N  82.4W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N  84.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 27.0N  86.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-07-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nDENNIS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nAND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nNUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.0. SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF DENNIS. IN\r\nFACT...DENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD AN AREA OF 20 KT BELOW AVERAGE WIND\r\nSHEAR...AS INDICATED IN THE EXPERIMENTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION\r\nPRODUCT PROVIDED BY NOAA/CIRA. IN ADDITION...BOTH SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER BRINGS DENNIS TO 121\r\nKNOTS AND 935 MB...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN CUBA AND THE CAYMAN\r\nISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL BUT\r\nCALLS FOR A MAJOR DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nDENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14\r\nKNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS. THERAFTER...DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED UP TO 72 HOURS...INCREASING\r\nTHE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIVERGE AND ONE\r\nGROUP SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE OTHER AN\r\nEARLIER TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 15.1N  70.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.1N  72.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N  75.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  77.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  80.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  83.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 26.5N  85.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 30.0N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-07-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n\r\nDENNIS APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THE\r\nINNER CORE SEEMS TO STILL BE IN THE ORGANIZING STAGES. 12Z DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL COMPROMISE AT 60 KT. THE\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS OF THE BANDING EVIDENT AT 12Z HAVE SINCE WARMED\r\nSLIGHTLY...BUT A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NEAR\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER\r\nDETERMINE THE INTENSITY. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD... INCLUDING WARM WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nAND GULF OF MEXICO...AND WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN IN\r\nBRINGING DENNIS TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF CUBA IS THE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT\r\nSHOULD STEER DENNIS GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL IT CROSSES CUBA. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH DAY THREE...BUT WITH SOME DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ON THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE FASTER CONU AND\r\nTHE SLOWER FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. IT IS IMPORTANT\r\nTO EMPHASIZE THAT FORECAST ERRORS AT THESE LONGER RANGES CAN BE\r\nQUITE LARGE...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 15.4N  71.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.1N  76.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.8N  78.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.1N  80.9W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  84.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 27.0N  85.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  87.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-07-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nRECENTLY MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN ONLY 58 KT.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 55 KT...BUT THE RECENT PRESSURE\r\nFALLS AND THE INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DENNIS COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nSHORTLY.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO...AND THEN SUSTAINING...MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. \r\nIN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL OUTPUT FORECASTS 127 KT AND 931 MB\r\nBY 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS ABOUT 100 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING DENNIS A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nDENNIS IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN\r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/12.  WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...AT DAYS THREE\r\nTHROUGH FIVE...TAKING DENNIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL RATHER THAN THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LATER PORTION OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...SINCE IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO\r\nMAKE LARGE CHANGES TO THE TRACK FROM ONE FORECAST PACKAGE TO THE\r\nNEXT.  SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAY VERY WELL SHIFT BACK TO THE\r\nEAST LATER...AND FURTHER OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL WAIT TO\r\nSEE HOW THE MODEL TRENDS EVOLVE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 16.0N  72.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N  74.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N  76.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N  79.1W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.4N  81.4W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  84.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 27.5N  86.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 31.0N  88.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-07-06 22:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n6 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS MAINLY TO UPGRADE DENNIS TO A HURRICANE\r\nBASED ON A 79-KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND THAT WAS MEASURED IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 2127Z ON THE OUTBOUND LEG AFTER PASSING\r\nTHROUGH THE EYE AND MEASURING A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB. WIND\r\nRADII FOR 64-KT WERE INCLUDED AND THE 50-KT RADII WERE INCREASED\r\nSLIGHTLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE NEW RECON WIND\r\nDATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/12.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. \r\n\r\nNO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER...\r\nRECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES\r\nINTO THIS EVENING...THEN THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND\r\nDENNIS COULD REACH CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT PASSES\r\nCLOSE TO JAMAICA IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2200Z 16.1N  72.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N  74.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N  76.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N  79.1W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.4N  81.4W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  84.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 27.5N  86.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 31.0N  88.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-07-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n \r\nDENNIS HAS FINALLY MIXED OUT THE DRY AIR THAT HAD WRAPPED INTO THE\r\nCENTER DURING THE DAY. AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN FLYING INTO DENNIS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...\r\nAND REPORTS INDICATE SURFACE WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED TO AT LEAST\r\n75 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO AT LEAST 980 MB...A\r\nPRESSURE DROP OF 7 MB IN THE PAST 5 HOURS. A CDO FEATURE HAS ALSO\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A WARM\r\nSPOT/PRE-EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...AN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A\r\nCLOSED EYE HAD ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE MID-LEVELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING EAST-WEST\r\nACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 60-72\r\nHOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP DENNIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER... THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND\r\nWESTERN U.S....WHICH ULTIMATELY HAS AN IMPACT ON THE STEERING FLOW\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. HALF OF THE MODELS BUILD A HIGH AMPLITUDE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS LIKE THE NAM...CANADIAN...GFDL...\r\nAND NOGAPS HAVE LESS RIDGING AND MORE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN\r\nAND CENTRAL GULF. OVERALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT A CDO AND EYE HAVE DEVELOPED...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR\r\nWOULD BE INTERACTION WITH LAND. IN THE ABSENCE OF THAT...THE LOW\r\nSHEAR AND 29C SSTS FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN BRINGS DENNIS TO 127\r\nKT IN 36 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS FAIRLY ROBUST IN TAKING\r\nDENNIS UP TO 107 KT IN 60 HOURS. ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT SOME\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT THE HURRICANE JUST PRIOR TO MAKING\r\nLANDFALL...SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 16.5N  73.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.6N  75.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.2N  77.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.7N  80.1W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  82.1W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 25.0N  85.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 28.5N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 32.0N  88.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-07-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION AND AN\r\nEYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW\r\nCONTINUES TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IT IS QUITE\r\nIMPRESSIVE ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THIS IS NOT VERY COMMON\r\nFOR CYCLONES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...DUE TO COMMON INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY\r\nWEAKER THAN NORMAL. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 5.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 87 KNOTS AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 970 MB. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.\r\nDENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF CENTRAL\r\nAND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OCEAN IN THIS\r\nREGION HAS A VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT AND WITH THE PREVAILING LOW\r\nWIND SHEAR...DENNIS COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 100 TO 105\r\nKNOT WINDS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE LATEST\r\nGFDL DOES NOT INTENSIFY DENNIS AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nRUN BECAUSE IT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE OVER CUBA.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OF DENNIS CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/13\r\nAND THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD...\r\nALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...\r\nBRINGING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS\r\nAND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 17.0N  74.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.1N  76.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N  79.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  81.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  83.5W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N  86.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 32.0N  88.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 36.1N  90.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-07-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 07 2005\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DENNIS IS APPARENTLY WEAKER\r\nTHAN EARLIER PREDICTED.  THIS MAY IN PART BE A RESULT OF ADDITIONAL\r\nSTEERING FLOW INFORMATION OBTAINED FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION LAST NIGHT.  CONSEQUENTLY...SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THEIR EARLIER SOLUTIONS.  THIS NECESSITATES AN\r\nEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  ADDITIONALLY...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT DENNIS HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD HAS EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nAND WIND FIELD FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES FOR\r\nEXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nRECON FOUND A RATHER LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 100 KT AT THE 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL.  THIS SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 90 KT. \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED AND THE EYE IS STARTING TO\r\nBECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DENNIS BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE ONLY OBVIOUS POTENTIAL HINDRANCE TO\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS THE INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF\r\nCUBA.  SINCE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF LAND DEPENDS ON THE\r\nDETAILS OF THE TRACK...THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH SHIPS AND\r\nDECAY SHIPS.  HOWEVER...IF DENNIS REMAINS MOSTLY OVER WATER IT\r\nCOULD EASILY STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nHURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR CUBA HAVE BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 18.0N  75.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N  77.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.3N  79.8W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.8N  81.8W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.7N  83.5W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 28.7N  86.2W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 33.5N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 37.5N  90.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-07-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING AT SLIGHTLY OVER 1 MB PER HOUR\r\nSINCE EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE EYE HAS SHRUNK TO ABOUT 9 N MI\r\nDIAMETER AND THE EYEWALL IS NOW CLOSED.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nREMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS.  DENNIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER CUBA...BUT IT SHOULD REGAIN\r\nSTRENGTH WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS DENNIS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL IN\r\nTHAT AREA.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...310/13.  THIS MOTION\r\nSHOULD TAKE THE CENTER OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER CENTRAL\r\nCUBA WITHIN 24 HOURS.  DENNIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALTHOUGH THIS SOUNDS\r\nSIMPLE ENOUGH...THE DETAILS OF THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE ARE\r\nIMPORTANT FOR RESIDENTS OF FLORIDA.  IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE\r\nGFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL TRACK.  THESE TWO MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nSUITE.  THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL REMAINS WELL WEST OF ALMOST ALL\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE.  OUR FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST\r\nAND IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS TRACK...\r\nCONU...AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW POSTED FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS SINCE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THOSE ISLANDS BY TOMORROW\r\nAFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 19.0N  76.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.4N  78.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.3N  80.5W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.2N  82.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 26.0N  84.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 30.0N  86.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-07-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUL 07 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MEASURED 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 134 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL AT 07/2314Z...AND ALSO\r\nREPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS HAD DROPPED TO 951 MB. \r\nSINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DENNIS HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.  BASED ON THIS AND ON 115 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...DENNIS IS UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  DENNIS MAY HAVE\r\nUNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AS\r\nTHE 9 N MI WIDE EYE SEEN EARLIER IS NOW 16 TO 20 N MI WIDE.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 950 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE IS AN ESTIMATE AND\r\nCOULD WELL BE TOO HIGH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310-315 AT ABOUT 13 KT.  DATA FROM A\r\nTWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION SHOWS THAT A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG 26N OVER\r\nFLOIDA AND THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO\r\nPRESENT...BUT IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER.  GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nABOUT 24 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE\r\nUKMET TAKING DENNIS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD LOUISIANA...THE CANADIAN\r\nTAKING DENNIS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...AND THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE IN BETWEEN.  THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT LEFT FROM\r\nITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER.  AS\r\nDENNIS HAS NOT YET DEVIATED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST\r\n36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT...WEST...AND LIES ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  IN THE SHORT TERM...DENNIS\r\nCOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL THE CORE ENCOUNTERS CENTRAL\r\nCUBA...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...SEVERAL FACTORS COME INTO PLAY.  THESE INCLUDE...WILL THE\r\nCURRENTLY TIGHTLY WOUND CORE OF DENNIS SURVIVE PASSAGE ACROSS\r\nLAND...WHAT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES MAY OCCUR...AND HOW MUCH\r\nENERGY IS AVAILABLE IN THE WARM...BUT THIN...SURFACE LAYER OF THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT WILL DECREASE AS DENNIS MOVES NORTHWARD...CAUSING THE STORM\r\nTO WEAKEN.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND GFDN BOTH CALL FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 19.9N  77.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  79.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 23.0N  81.2W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 24.8N  83.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 26.8N  84.6W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.5N  87.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 35.5N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 38.5N  86.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-07-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE BECAME A LITTLE DISRUPTED A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE HURRICANE\r\nCROSSED NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA. SINCE THEN...DENNIS HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nOVER THE SHALLOW WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CAMAGUEY CUBA OVER A GROUP OF\r\nSMALL ISLANDS NAMED...ARCHIPIELAGO DE LA REINA...AND THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nA NOAA PLANE JUST CHECKED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 950 MB AND SURFACE WINDS OF 113 KNOTS WITH THE STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY RADIOMETER(SFMR). INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115\r\nKNOTS...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE\r\nSCALE.  THE EYE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR\r\nABOUT 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA...SO ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING MAY OCCUR OVER\r\nCUBA BUT DENNIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT DENNIS HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING BETWEN 305 AND 310 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 TO 14 KNOTS DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE POWERFULL HURRICANE WILL BE\r\nCROSSING CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS..BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A REFLECTION OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION. THEREAFTER...TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY TURN DENNIS MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. THE UK MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE FARTHER WEST AND\r\nTHE GFS THE FARTHER EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THESE TWO MODELS AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING\r\nCUBA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEVASTATION\r\nALONG ITS PATH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 20.7N  79.1W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  80.7W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N  82.8W   115 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 25.8N  84.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 27.7N  85.7W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 31.5N  88.0W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 36.6N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 39.5N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-07-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND OF 150 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n938 MB. WHILE THE 150 KT EQUATES TO A 135-KT SURFACE WIND...OR NEAR\r\nCAT 5 INTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 125 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES. THE\r\nEYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA.\r\nTHE LATEST RADAR DATA ALSO SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS MAY BE STARTING AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT DENNIS HAS\r\nLIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATES IS 310/13. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING\r\nQUITE A BIT THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND HAS MADE A WOBBLE MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THAN THE WESTWARD MOTION OF 6 HOURS AGO. THIS TYPE OF\r\nMOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES. THERE MAY\r\nBE SOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION AS THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS\r\nCUBA...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTO CONTINUE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nGUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH U.S. LANDFALL INDICATED FROM THE FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE TO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nWAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nLEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...NAM...AND THE BAM MODEL SOLUTIONS...\r\nWHICH ARE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS\r\nBECAUSE THE GFS AND NAM ANALYSES APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON\r\nTHE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF STATES.\r\n\r\nDENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO\r\nEMERGE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. \r\nDENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S. LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES TO THE U.S. WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS\r\nTIME. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 21.4N  79.9W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.7N  81.7W   110 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 24.5N  83.6W   115 KT...OVER SOUTHEAST GULF\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N  85.0W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 28.4N  86.2W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 32.6N  88.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 37.0N  88.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 39.5N  84.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-07-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005\r\n \r\nDENNIS IS WELL INLAND OVER CENTRAL CUBA NOW...AND THE LAST RECON\r\nREPORT RIGHT AT LANDFALL NEAR CIENFUEGOS INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD\r\nRISEN 3 MILLIBARS TO 941 MB. HOWEVER...A WIND GUST TO 149 MPH WAS\r\nMEASURED IN CIENFUEGOS CAUSING EXTENSIVE DAMAGE THERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15. DENNIS HAS BEEN WOBBLING\r\nABOUT A MEAN MOTION BETWEEN 310 AND 315 DEGREES THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\n...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT TYPE OF MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z AND 18Z INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nTODAY. ALSO...UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A COLD POOL OF -10C HAS\r\nDEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN LOUSIANA ALONG A 500 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHICH\r\nNONE OF THE MODELS INTIALIZED VERY WELL. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT\r\nSHOULD HELP CREATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAN\r\nTHE GLOBAL...GFDL...AND NAM MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO DROP SOUTH OF\r\nLOUSIANA OVER THE NOTHWESTERN GULF. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A DEEP-\r\nLAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nDENNIS WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE OVER CUBA...BUT IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS\r\nEVENING AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. HOWQEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR DENNIS TO RE-STRENGTHEN...\r\nPOSSIBLY TO CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...ONCE IT REACHES THE 29C SSTS OF\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AFTER 24 HOURS...DENNIS WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER...WHICH MAY BRING ABOUT SOME\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE U.S.\r\nLANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE WIND SPEED RADII...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIGHT SEMICIRCLE...\r\nWERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA.\r\n \r\nSOME FACTS ABOUT DENNIS...THE EARLIEST CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO\r\nDEVELOP IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO EARLY IN THE\r\nYEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 22.6N  81.1W   115 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 23.9N  82.7W   105 KT...OVER S.E. GULF\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 25.7N  84.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 27.8N  85.6W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 30.0N  86.7W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 34.9N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  90.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 39.5N  85.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-07-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUL 08 2005\r\n \r\nDENNIS CONTINUES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND IS APPROACHING THE\r\nSTRAITS OF FLORIDA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY\r\nWEST WSR-88D SHOW SOME DEGRADATION OF THE EYE STRUCTURE OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH DOPPLER WINDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A\r\nTIGHT INNER CORE.  BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE DOPPLER WINDS...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 95 KT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A\r\nLARGE MARGIN FOR ERROR ON BOTH THE WINDS AND THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNSTEADY 310/12.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN OR THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. \r\nDENNIS IS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WHILE AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE\r\nMID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS COAST.  LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS FORECAST THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BUILD NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nWHICH SHOULD KEEP DENNIS ON A NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK UNTIL IT REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED BETWEEN LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA\r\nAND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WHILE THE UKMET REMAINS\r\nTO THE LEFT OF CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nREMAIN CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN PASCAGOULA AND FT.\r\nWALTON BEACH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TO MATCH THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION IN\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HR AND TO BE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nFROM 24-48 HR.\r\n \r\nDENNIS SHOULD BE OVER WATER SHORTLY...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  ALL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SYSTEM SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS...AND THAT IS FOLLOWED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWHICH BRINGS DENNIS BACK TO 110 KT IN 24 HR AND MAINTAINS THAT\r\nINTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DENNIS COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  AFTER LANDFALL...DENNIS\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE\r\nMID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.\r\n \r\n34 KT WIND RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE INCREASED ON THE\r\nBASIS OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG\r\nTHE NORTH COAST OF CUBA WAITING FOR DENNIS TO EMERGE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT IS EXPERIENCING MAJOR COMMUNICATION PROBLEMS AND ONLY\r\nLIMITED DATA CAN BE TRANSMITTED AT THIS MOMENT.  A VORTEX MESSAGE\r\nMAY BE AVAILABLE ONCE DENNIS MOVES BACK OVER THE WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 23.0N  82.1W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 24.4N  83.4W   100 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.3N  84.9W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 28.5N  86.2W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 30.9N  87.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 35.5N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 38.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 39.0N  85.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-07-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DENNIS WEAKENED\r\nCONSIDERABLY WHILE MOVING OVER CUBA. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A 12\r\nNMI EYE AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 972 MB. HOWEVER...THE PLANE HAS\r\nNOT REPORTED ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 71 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. \r\nASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS...AND THIS IS VERY\r\nGENEROUS. SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER RE-INTENSIFYING DENNIS BUT THE\r\nGFDL DOES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND\r\nRE-STRENGTHENS DENNIS OVER THE GULF BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD LATER TODAY. NORMALLY...\r\nIT TAKES 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR A CYCLONE TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS\r\nOF LAND...IF AT ALL.  \r\n\r\nDENNIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.\r\nTHE MOTION OF DENNIS IS STILL CONTROLLED MAINLY BY A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY\r\nLOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. THEREFORE...A TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nAND EVEN THE UK MODEL SOLUTION WHICH WAS THE FARTHER WEST HAS\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD...AND IT IS NOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE. HAVING ALL THESE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASES THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND THE EARLY ARRIVAL TO THE\r\nCOAST OF THE 34-KNOT WINDS...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED\r\nACCORDINGLY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 23.9N  82.9W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 25.3N  84.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N  85.7W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 29.8N  87.1W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 32.5N  88.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 38.0N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 39.1N  85.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-07-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS\r\nSLOWLY BEEN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE HAS\r\nBEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING SINCE DENNIS MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF\r\nCUBA...BUT THIS HAS NOT BEEN REFLECTED BY A CORRESPONDING INCREASE\r\nIN FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS. THE EYE HAS BEEN RAGGED LOOKING MOST\r\nOF THIS MORNING IN THE KEY WEST DOPPLER RADAR DATA...ALTHOUGH IT\r\nHAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SFMR\r\nDATA...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 90 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND\r\nESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST\r\nSOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF\r\nTHE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT\r\nCAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE\r\nONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT\r\nWOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nGIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS\r\nNOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nDENNIS IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A COOL EDDY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE BACK OVER WARMER WATER IN 12-18 HOURS. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE. THE SSTS AHEAD OF DENNIS ARE WARM ENOUGH\r\nTO SUPPORT A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL...SO THE ONLY\r\nINHIBITING FACTOR IS IF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DOES NOT REGAIN\r\nITS ORIGINAL STRUCTURE. BUT GIVEN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER IS ONLY\r\n10-15 MILES...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AROUND\r\nTHE EYE FOR DENNIS TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK IN A SHORT PERIOD\r\nOF TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE 64-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON RECON DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 24.7N  83.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 26.4N  85.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 28.7N  86.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 31.2N  87.7W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 33.6N  89.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 36.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 38.0N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 39.0N  83.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-07-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005\r\n \r\nWHAT A DIFFERENCE 6 HOURS MAKES! SATELLITE...RADAR...AND NOAA AND\r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE DENNIS HAS POSSIBLY STARTED\r\nA RAPID DEEPENING PHASE. THE EYE HAS BECOME BECOME DEFINED IN BOTH\r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE PRESSURE IS NOW 955 MB...DOWN\r\nALMOST 10 MB IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING\r\nTO CATCH UP WITH THE PRESSURE FALLS AS INDICATED BY A 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 101 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 91 KT SURFACE WIND\r\n...IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12. DENNIS HAS MADE A LARGE\r\nWOBBLE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE PAST 2 HOURS...BUT THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVING\r\nEXPLODED AND WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE EYE. ONCE THE\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE SYMMETRICAL...I EXPECT DENNIS TO\r\nRESUME A NORTHWEST MOTION OF 320 TO 325 DEGREES. THE NEW 18Z NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE CONVERGENT AND IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON\r\nA TRACK TOWARD THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA\r\nAREA. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT\r\n...OR EAST OF LOUISIANA...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS 3 NHC FORECAST\r\nTRACKS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB NORMALLY WOULD SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 105-110 KT...BUT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS\r\nSTILL FLAT DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SMALL 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE...RECENT SHARP PRESSURE FALLS...\r\nWARM WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW ALL\r\nSUGGEST THAT DENNIS SHOULD GO ON AND INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE...AND POSSIBLY EVEN REGAIN CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BEFORE IT\r\nMAKES LANDFALL ON SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nVARIOUS WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON RECON DATA\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 25.7N  84.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N  85.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 29.9N  87.2W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 32.3N  88.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 34.2N  89.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 37.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 38.0N  87.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 39.0N  82.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-07-09 23:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM EDT SAT JUL 09 2005\r\n \r\nWHAT A DIFFERENCE 2 HOURS MAKES!  AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF DENNIS DROPPED 11\r\nMB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED\r\nN OF THE CENTER WERE 105 KT...AND THERE WERE LIKELY STRONGER WINDS\r\nIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE. \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPGRADES DENNIS TO A 100 KT CATEGORY 3\r\nHURRICANE BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT IS\r\nUNCLEAR HOW LONG THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE...BUT\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED TO SHOW 12 HR OF RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY SLOWER STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS DENNIS ASHORE AS A CATEGORY 4\r\nHURRICANE.  AFTER-LANDFALL INTENSITIES WERE ALSO INCREASED THROUGH\r\n72 HR TO REFLECT THE INCREASED LANDFALL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW PACKAGE ALSO INCLUDES SLIGHT REVISIONS TO THE WIND RADII AND\r\n12 FT SEAS RADII.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2300Z 26.1N  84.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N  85.8W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 29.9N  87.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 32.3N  88.4W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 34.2N  89.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 37.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 38.0N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 39.0N  82.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-07-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM CDT SAT JUL 09 2005\r\n \r\nAFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL\r\nRATE THIS EVENING.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 941\r\nMB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 122 KT IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 110 KT.  IT IS\r\nEXPECTED THAT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT AGAIN SAMPLES THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL\r\nTHAT IT WILL FIND STRONGER WINDS THAT WILL JUSTIFY UPGRADING DENNIS\r\nTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALTHOUGH\r\nDENNIS HAS A VERY LARGE OUTER WIND FIELD... THE HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS ARE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  DENNIS IN ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND EAST OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTO JUST OFF THE TEXAS COAST.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD KEEP DENNIS\r\nON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR AT\r\nLEAST 2 DAYS...WITH THIS MOTION BRINGING THE STORM INLAND ON\r\nSUNDAY.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN CALLING FOR\r\nLANDFALL IN THE PENSACOLA FLORIDA-PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AREA...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nCLUSTER JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...DENNIS SHOULD SLOW AND GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF TIGHT INNER CORE...GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND\r\nCOLD CONVECTIVE TOPS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS NOT YET FINISHED\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO\r\nREACH 120 KT IN 12 HR.  AFTER THAT...CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES\r\nALONG WITH POSSIBLE DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLY INCREASING SHEAR\r\nWILL LIKELY END STRENGTHENING.  DENNIS WILL WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL\r\nAND EVENTUALLY BECOME A LOW PRESSURE AREA.\r\n \r\n34 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN REVISED OUTWARD\r\nBASED ON OBSERVATIONS AT KEY WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 26.6N  85.3W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 28.2N  86.6W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.6N  87.9W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 32.9N  89.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 34.8N  89.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 37.5N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 38.0N  86.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 38.5N  82.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-07-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS IN DENNIS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 KT.  THIS IS BASED ON\r\nMAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 139 AND 140 KT FROM A COUPLE\r\nOF PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  DENNIS MAY UNDERGO AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH USUALLY RESULTS\r\nIN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT\r\nSUGGEST ANY ENVIRONMENTAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES THAT COULD\r\nWEAKEN THE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL... HOWEVER THE WATERS OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST GULF COASTAL AREAS ARE OF SOMEWHAT LOWER OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.   \r\nDENNIS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWETWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS EAST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGH LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.\r\n\r\nPREDICTED STORM SURGE HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE\r\nINCREASED INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 27.8N  86.1W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 29.6N  87.4W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 32.0N  89.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 34.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 36.5N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 38.0N  88.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 38.5N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  84.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-07-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND HAS\r\nCEASED.  MOST RECENT ESTIMATED PRESSURE WAS 930 MB...AND THE\r\nHIGHEST RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 131 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 120 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH DENNIS IS NOW MOVING OVER WATERS OF SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT\r\nCONTENT...IT IS MOVING RAPIDLY ENOUGH THAT ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.  DENNIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORIES THREE\r\nAND FOUR.\r\n\r\nAFTER AN EARLIER NORTHWARD WOBBLE...DENNIS IS NOW BACK ON A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST HEADING...340 DEGREES...BUT AT A FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THIS MOVES THE TIMING OF LANDFALL UP A FEW HOURS...TO\r\nMID-AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL ARRIVE A COUPLE \r\nHOURS IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 MILES TO THE EAST AS A RESULT OF THE EARLIER\r\nNORTHWARD JOG...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF A TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nREMNANTS OF THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE OHIO VALLEY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 29.4N  86.7W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 31.5N  87.8W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 33.9N  88.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 35.8N  89.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 37.5N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 38.5N  88.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 39.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 39.0N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dennis","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-07-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005\r\n \r\nDENNIS MADE LANDFALL NEAR PENSACOLA AT 1925Z THIS AFTERNOON.  THE\r\nLANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 100 TO 105 KT...BASED ON\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT AT 1928Z...TWO STEPPED-FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER OBSERVATIONS OF 100 KT JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT LANDFALL\r\nALSO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/18.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL RECURVATURE\r\nAND SLOWDOWN OR STALL IN THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS COULD\r\nRESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF\r\nDENNIS...AND ITS REMNANTS. \r\n\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS COULD EXTEND PERHAPS 100 TO 150 MILES INLAND\r\nOVER SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 30.8N  87.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 32.7N  88.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 35.2N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 37.0N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 37.8N  89.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 38.5N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 38.5N  87.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 38.5N  87.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dennis","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-07-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...DIPPLER RADARDATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE DENNIS IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER SOUTHWESTERN\r\nALABAMA. NO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE\r\nGULF DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS...SO ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. DENNIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A\r\nDEPRESSION AS EARLY AS THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/14. DENNIS HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD\r\nMOTION AND HAS TURNED BACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI\r\nAND WESTERN TENNESSEE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS..FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AFTERWARDS AS DENNIS COMES UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A SLOW MOVING MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO STALL OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IN 72 THROUGH 120\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND THIS FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ALONG THE TRACK OF DENNIS...AND ITS REMNANTS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE DENNIS\r\nMOVED INLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE WINDS ALOFT HAVE NOT\r\nDECREASED MUCH AT ALL BASED ON 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. UNFORTUNATELY...\r\nTHE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE PRODUCTION OF\r\nTORNADOES ON MONDAY TO THE EAST OF DENNIS' TRACK DURING THE DAY\r\nONCE THE SURFACE HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOPSHERE ENOUGH TO\r\nTRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 32.3N  87.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 34.3N  88.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 36.4N  89.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 37.7N  89.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 38.4N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 38.9N  87.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 38.9N  87.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 38.9N  87.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dennis","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-07-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005\r\n\r\nDENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...AND THERE\r\nARE NO LONGER ANY INDICATIONS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nSYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12.  STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER OVER THE\r\nEAST-CENTRAL U.S. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS WILL...OF\r\nCOURSE...EXACERBATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nDENNIS.  FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER TCPAT4 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTBT34 KWNH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 33.3N  88.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  88.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 36.9N  89.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 37.9N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 38.5N  88.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 39.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 38.0N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-07-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE STRONG\r\nTROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 1280 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 25 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...A\r\nSMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS AT LEAST 25-KT INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 24-36\r\nHOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT.\r\nTHE GFDL...GFS...NOGAPS...AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE\r\nACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN 84 TO 96 HOURS\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY DAY 5...\r\nTHE RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD BACK IN AND POSSIBLY TURN THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK OVER OR NEAR PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINCIAN REPUBLIC.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION...WHILE WELL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN ONLY A MODERATELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AS NOTED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AS SUCH...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR\r\nWILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD\r\nONLY ALLOW FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...NEAR\r\n29C SSTS...AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 112 KT IN 120 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 10.8N  42.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 11.0N  44.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 11.5N  46.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 12.1N  49.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 12.8N  51.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N  57.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N  63.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N  69.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-07-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS NOW A RAGGED BANDING FEATURE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE T2.0...I.E. 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING THROUGH AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO BE SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS RATHER WEAK SHEAR\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE MOTION REMAINS 270/10. \r\nSOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nAWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING\r\nCURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nAND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK OUTPUT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 10.8N  43.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 11.1N  45.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 11.6N  48.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 12.1N  50.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 12.6N  53.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N  60.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N  66.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N  71.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-07-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 11 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...\r\nWITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...ABOUT 80 NM TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING.\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 09Z SUGGESTED THAT THIS SMALL LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION MAY MERELY BE A SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED\r\nBROADER LOW. IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS ALSO SUGGEST THAT IT IS THE BROADER LOW THAT MAY\r\nULTIMATELY PREVAIL. RATHER THAN JERK THE TRACK BACK TO THE EAST TO\r\nFOLLOW THE SWIRL...I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE BROADER SYSTEM AT THIS\r\nTIME. THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF T2.0...ARE GOOD REASONS NOT TO\r\nUPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE IS PRESENTLY SOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS\r\nWELL AS MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN BOTH REGARDS OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  GIVEN THIS...SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nDEVELOPS THE DEPRESSION ONLY SLOWLY AT FIRST...CONTINUES TO MAKE\r\nTHE CYCLONE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE 270/10. SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nBECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS.  IT IS PERHAPS\r\nOF INTEREST TO NOTE THAT THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD ONLY A SO-SO YEAR\r\nLAST YEAR...IS CURRENTLY THE BEST PERFORMING ATLANTIC TRACK MODEL\r\nSO FAR IN 2005...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH WON HANDS DOWN\r\nLAST YEAR...IS STRUGGLING A BIT.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 10.3N  44.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.4N  46.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 10.8N  48.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 11.5N  52.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 12.2N  55.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 14.0N  61.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N  67.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-07-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005\r\n \r\nGOOD LUCK FINDING A CENTER IN THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE\r\nTHERE IS CLEARLY A BROAD-SCALE CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nVERY POORLY ORGANIZED.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FOCUS OF LOW-LEVEL\r\nTURNING TO THE NORTHEAST OF MY ESTIMATED POSITION...AS EVIDENCED BY\r\nA MICROWAVE PASS AT 1737Z...BUT FOR THIS PACKAGE I WILL TRY TO LOOK\r\nAT THE BIG PICTURE AND FOLLOW THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE OVERALL\r\nDISTURBANCE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND\r\n35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S DISHEVELED\r\nAPPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY WELL CLUSTERED...WITH THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND IS SOUTH OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT AND SLOW STEADY STRENGHENING IS ANTICIPATED...ROUGHLY\r\nIN ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO MAKE\r\nTHE CYCLONE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE CARIBBEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 10.6N  46.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.9N  47.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 11.6N  50.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 12.4N  53.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 13.2N  56.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N  63.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N  68.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N  74.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-07-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 11 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED 96- AND 120-HOUR COMMENTS IN TABLE\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...AND THE EARLIER EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE THAT HAD BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AROUND THE LARGER CIRCULATION\r\nHAS WRAPPED INTO THE CENTER UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBER IS 3.0/45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND\r\nTHE MUCH IMPROVED INFRARED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY WAS\r\nINCREASED TO 35 KT ON THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY...AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EMILY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS SMALL BUT SYMMETRICAL...AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. DUE TO THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEPER CONVECTION...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAD TO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE NORTH...OR RIGHT...OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nJUST PARALLEL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nUNUSUALLY STRONG AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS THE\r\nCENTRAL TO NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...NEAR PUERTO\r\nRICO IN 72-84 HOURS...AND THEN PASSING OVER OR NORTH OF EASTERN\r\nHISPANIOLA IN 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SO TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED...NOW THAT THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS COME INTO THE FOLD...THE\r\nMODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IN 120 HOURS IS LESS THAN 120 NMI. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE OR\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24-36 HOURS WHEN EMILY\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A SMALL 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AS\r\nDEPICTED BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST. HOWEVER\r\n...IF EMILY DOES NOT INTERACT MUCH WITH PUERTO RICO AND/OR\r\nHISPANIOLA...THEN THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER AT 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 11.3N  47.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 11.8N  48.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 12.6N  51.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 13.5N  54.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N  58.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 16.8N  64.1W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N  69.5W    85 KT...NEAR ERN HISPANIOLA\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N  75.5W    85 KT...NEAR ERN CUBA\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-07-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nSTORM AS PERCEIVED FROM SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...BUT\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT VERY PROMINENT AT THIS\r\nTIME.  EMILY'S INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THIS SCENARIO\r\nWOULD APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nALTHOUGH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODEL SUGGEST THAT EMILY COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN AT A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES...BUT MY\r\nBEST GUESS IS THAT THE STORM IS NOW MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED...280 AT 13 KT.  FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EMILY WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE HAS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT.  THIS SHIFT IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL'S PREDICTION OF THE FORMATION OF A RATHER STRONG\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD\r\nIN THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER IT IS NORTH OF THE LATEST CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL TRACK.\r\n\r\nIT IS NOTABLE THAT...WITH EMILY'S FORMATION...THIS IS THE EARLIEST\r\nDATE ON RECORD FOR THE FORMATION OF FIVE NAMED CYCLONES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 11.4N  48.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 12.0N  50.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 12.9N  53.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 13.6N  56.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 14.4N  59.6W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  66.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N  71.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N  77.0W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-07-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY IS SHOWING IMPROVED BANDING THIS MORNING...AND A MICROWAVE\r\nPASS AT 0920Z DOES MUCH TO IMPROVE CONFIDENCE IN A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED\r\nON A T3.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB.  OUTFLOW IS STRONG BOTH\r\nTO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS CONSOLIDATING...A MORE\r\nRAPID STRENGTHENING TREND IS LIKELY...WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT BEING THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR.  BOTH THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nIN THREE DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/18...CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS HAD SOMETHING OF A RIGHT BIAS\r\nSO FAR WITH THIS SYSTEM...HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS.  THE DEEP TROUGH CURRENTLY VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED\r\nBY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD\r\nKEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR MOST OR ALL OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...EVEN MORE\r\nSO THAN YESTERDAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT\r\n100 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 11.0N  51.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 11.4N  53.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 11.9N  57.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 12.8N  60.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.0N  63.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N  69.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N  75.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  80.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-07-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nEMILY IS MAINTAINING DECENT BANDING AND GOOD SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT\r\nFROM AFWA.  GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE TOMORROW MORNING AT 12Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17...AND ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE HAS EDGED SOUTHWARD.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAINTAINED NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...KEEPING IT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE GFS AND NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nAS NOTED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG...THE SHEAR IS\r\nLOW...AND THE WATER IS WARM.  SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO\r\nMAKE A MAJOR HURRICANE OUT OF EMILY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE STRENGTHENING TREND WILL\r\nLIKELY RESUME WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  THE\r\nONLY SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE PREDICTOR IN THE LATEST SHIPS STATISTICAL\r\nMODEL RUN IS CLIMATOLOGY.  SO FAR...THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON SEEMS\r\nTO HAVE LITTLE INTEREST IN CLIMATOLOGY.\r\n\r\nWHILE WE OFTEN TALK ABOUT THE COLD WAKE THAT HURRICANES LEAVE\r\nBEHIND...IT APPEARS THAT HURRICANE DENNIS HAS ACTUALLY MADE\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WARMER...AND HENCE MORE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nTHE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF EMILY. HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THAT WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF DENNIS HAVE SPREAD WARM WATERS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF JAMAICA...AN AREA THAT COULD\r\nBE TRAVERSED BY EMILY IN THREE DAYS OR SO.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 11.1N  52.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 11.5N  55.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 12.1N  58.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 13.0N  61.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.0N  64.8W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  71.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N  77.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  83.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-07-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005\r\n\r\nEMILY HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 265/17.  THIS MOTION IS\r\nTAKING EMILY ON A TRACK TO THE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THEREFORE...A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED TO\r\nTHE ENTIRE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE NOGAPS IS\r\nTHE SOUTHERN OUTLIER...AND GIVEN ITS GOOD PERFORMANCE THUS FAR THIS\r\nYEAR...AND THE CURRENT MOTION TRENDS...IT COULD TURN OUT TO BE\r\nCORRECT.  HOWEVER...I WILL FOLLOW A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL\r\nTRACKS...AFTER ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD BEEN LACKING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS\r\nRESUMED...WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED BENEATH THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE.  00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND SINCE THEN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED.  GIVEN\r\nTHE TREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 50 KT.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BRINGING EMILY TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS AND\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 10.7N  54.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 11.1N  57.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 11.8N  60.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 12.7N  63.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N  66.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N  73.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N  79.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-07-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND NOT VERY\r\nSYMMETRICAL.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN AND\r\nSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  LOW CLOUD LINES EVIDENT IN\r\nIR COMBINATION CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN SPITE OF THE\r\nSTORM'S ASYMMETRICAL APPEARENCE...VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER\r\nTHE AREA.  PERHAPS THE EROSION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE REMAINS AT 50 KT...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE SHOULD\r\nGIVE US MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH OF EMILY. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL\r\nPREDICT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF EMILY AS IT MOVES OVER\r\nINCREASINGLY WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS.  MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nQUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  EMILY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN\r\nPREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IN 3-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nEMILY HAS BEEN MOVING MOSTLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/17.  DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 11.1N  56.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 11.6N  58.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 12.4N  61.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 13.3N  64.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.3N  67.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N  86.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-07-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005\r\n \r\nFOR A STORM MOVING WESTWARD AT ALMOST 20 KT...THERE IS A SURPRISING\r\nAMOUNT OF WIND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTING UP TO 56 KT AT 850 MB IN THE ACTIVE CONVECTION\r\nIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AT LEAST 45 KT\r\nAT THE SURFACE...AND THE FLIGHT CREW HAS VISUALLY ESTIMATED WINDS\r\nOF 55 KT.  GIVEN THIS...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT\r\nSOUNDS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. INCIDENTALLY...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA\r\nCONFIRM THE RAIN-FLAGGED BUT ESSENTIALLY CORRECT QUIKSCAT\r\nOBSERVATIONS IMMEDIATELY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN THE 09Z PASS.\r\n \r\nEMILY CONTINUES ON A STUBBORN WESTWARD TRACK...270/17.  THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FORECAST ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE TRACK\r\nMODELS HAS NOT DEVELOPED YET.  CLEARLY THERE HAS BEEN MORE RIDGING\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAN EXPECTED.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS\r\nBOUNDED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET ON THE NORTH...AND NOGAPS ON THE\r\nSOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF EMILY IS RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE NEAR THE\r\nCORE...AND I PRESUME THAT THE DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS HINDERING\r\nDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...UPPER WINDS ARE STILL\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  WHILE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...IF EMILY DOES NOT GAIN SOME LATITUDE IN THE\r\nEASTERN CARIBBEAN IT COULD LOSE A SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND\r\nEND UP CONSIDERABLY WEAKER THAN FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 11.2N  58.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 11.5N  60.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 12.4N  64.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.3N  67.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.2N  70.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  76.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N  82.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  88.0W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-07-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF EMILY IS VERY NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 62 KT AT 850 MB...AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 50\r\nKT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...ALTHOUGH SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN 50 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/16.  IT'S NOT QUITE WEST-NORTHWEST...\r\nBUT IT'S A START.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC FORECAST\r\nREASONING...WITH EMILY EXPECTED TO TAKE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH\r\nOF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.  THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF EMILY WAS PARTIALLY EXPOSED EARLIER IN THE\r\nAFTERNOON...BUT HAS BECOME OBSCURED AGAIN.  A LOW-LEVEL SURGE IN\r\nTHE EASTERLIES OVERTAKING EMILY APPEARS TO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME\r\nMODEST WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE'S CORE...AND MAY ALSO HAVE\r\nCONTRIBUTED TO THE DRY ENVIRONMENT.  NEVERTHELESS...THE LARGE SCALE\r\nCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST EMILY TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM...AREAS AT SIGNIFICANT ELEVATION ABOVE SEA\r\nLEVEL...PARTICULARLY ON GRENADA...COULD EXPERIENCE SOME HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 11.4N  59.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 11.9N  62.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 12.8N  65.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 13.8N  68.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  71.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N  78.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  84.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N  89.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-07-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005\r\n\r\nEMILY HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nFIRST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2331Z INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WAS\r\nBENEATH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MEASURED A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB.  00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED\r\nFROM 50 TO 65 KT...WITH THE STRONGER ESTIMATES BASED ON A LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  LATER RECON FIXES\r\nSHOWED THAT THE CENTER HAD REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE\r\nCONVECTION...AND THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA SOON RESPONDED.  THE\r\nPRESSURE HAS MOST RECENTLY FALLEN TO 992 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM 850\r\nMB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND HAS BEEN 79 KT...SUPPORTING AT LEAST 63 KT AT\r\nTHE SURFACE.  HOWEVER...REDUCTION TO THE SURFACE OF A DROPSONDE\r\nPROFILE JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 01Z SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF\r\n80 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAKING EMILY A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE BY 48 HOURS.  THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE RECON FIXES DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 275/16. \r\nEXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW\r\nPOSITION...THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE NWS MODELS...GFS AND GFDL...HAVE CHANGED LITTLE\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE NAVY MODELS...GFDN AND\r\nNOGAPS...HAVE SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TAKES EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 11.9N  61.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 12.5N  63.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 13.4N  66.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  70.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N  73.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N  79.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  85.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N  90.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-07-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005\r\n\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM GRENADA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE\r\nISLAND AROUND 07Z...AT WHICH TIME THE OBSERVING SITE WAS REPORTING\r\nWESTERLY WINDS WITH A PRESSURE OF 993 MB.\r\n\r\nAFTER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE OBSERVED YESTERDAY\r\nEVENING...EMILY NOW APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING AT A MORE MODERATE\r\nPACE.  THIS WAS SUGGESTED BY CENTRAL PRESSURES FROM THE LAST COUPLE\r\nOF RECON FIXES BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 12Z.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER\r\nSYMMETRICAL WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS ALSO WELL-DEFINED...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED\r\nTO BECOME STRONG ALONG THE PATH OF EMILY.  MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THUS...STRENGTHENING SEEMS\r\nINEVITABLE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND...AS NOTED EARLIER...COULD BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE RECON FIXES AND THE GRENADA OBS...THE MOTION NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/16.  MY TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE.  DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A LARGE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF EMILY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD FORCE A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  TRACK PREDICTION MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION BUT\r\nDIFFER ON SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER.  SOME MODELS... SUCH AS THE GFDL\r\nAND GFS...INDICATE AN EVEN FASTER MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 12.3N  62.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 13.0N  64.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.0N  68.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.2N  71.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N  75.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  82.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  88.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N  92.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-07-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. REPORTS FROM\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY IS STRENGTHENING AGAIN. \r\nTHE MINIMUM PRESSURE FELL BY AT LEAST 13 MB OVER THE LAST 8 HOURS. \r\nTHE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 90\r\nKT...WHICH SUPPORTS 80 KT AT THE SURFACE...BUT I PRESUME THERE HAS\r\nBEEN SOME INCREASE IN WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THIS DECREASE IN\r\nPRESSURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED TO 85\r\nKT...CATEGORY TWO ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO\r\nBE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nBY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.   THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE UKMET\r\nAND CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHWARD TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE. THERE ARE SOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERIES AHEAD OF EMILY IN\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT THESE ARE FORECAST TO GET OUT OF THE\r\nWAY. MOREOVER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF\r\nINCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHUS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND CALLS FOR\r\nSOMEWHAT MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 12.7N  64.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.3N  66.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N  69.9W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.6N  73.3W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  76.8W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  83.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 22.5N  94.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-07-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005\r\n \r\nLOW-LEVEL DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS AT 1525 AND 1712Z YIELDED\r\nSURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS OF 92 AND 93 KT.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS...BUT SINCE THAT TIME...THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS HAVE INCREASE BY 0.5 TO 1 T-NUMBER.  ON THIS BASIS...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING EMILY THE SECOND\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THIS\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP EMILY ON A BASIC\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z UKMET\r\nIS NOW CLOSER TO THE REST OF TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH SOME VARIATION IN\r\nSPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  USERS ARE REMINDED THAT AVERAGE 5-DAY TRACK ERRORS\r\nEXCEED 300 NMI. \r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE\r\nCURRENTLY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT\r\nCOULD HAVE SOME IMPACT IF THEY DO NOT CLEAR OUT AS QUICKLY AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BELOW\r\nEMILY WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY TO THE\r\nCENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  INTERNAL PROCESSES...SUCH\r\nAS HARD TO FORECAST EYEWALL CYCLES...COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE\r\nON INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BUT NO ATTEMPT HAS BEEN MADE TO\r\nANTICIPATE THESE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 13.3N  65.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.1N  68.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.3N  72.1W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N  75.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.6N  79.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  90.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 23.0N  95.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-07-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 6.0\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115\r\nKT.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE AND WINDS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE.  THE FIRST FIX AT 2347Z INCLUDED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 962 MB...DOWN 12 MB FROM ABOUT SIX HOURS EARLIER...AND\r\nA MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 958 MB AT 0130Z WITH MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS UP TO 125 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...\r\nSUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  NOT MUCH SEEMS TO BE\r\nIN THE WAY OF EMILY MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...POSSIBLY\r\nREACHING CATEGORY FOUR...DURING ITS PATH THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. \r\nTHE GFDL MAINTAINS A NEAR-120 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS...AND WHILE THE GFDL CURIOUSLY WEAKENS EMILY IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A MAJOR HURRICANE BEYOND\r\n72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 285/17 SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION.  HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY BEYOND THAT TIME...THE OVERALL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BY AN INCREASING AMOUNT BEYOND 48 HOURS...BUT REMAINS ON\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 13.6N  67.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.4N  70.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N  73.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  77.1W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 18.2N  80.2W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  86.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  91.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  95.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-07-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE\r\nBASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 128 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0505Z DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. THE PRESSURE\r\nHAD ALSO DECREASED TO 952 MB...DOWN ANOTHER 4 MB IN JUST 2 HOURS.\r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD COVERED IN\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EMILY HAD AN 8 NMI DIAMETER\r\nEYE FOR NEARLY 6 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS PROBABLY GOING THROUGH AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH THE WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LOWER\r\nBASED ON THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/17...AS IT HAS BEEN FOR MORE\r\nTHAN 24 HOURS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ARGUE AGAINST SUCH A STRONG AND\r\nPERSISTENT PAST MOTION...BUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL\r\nMODEL ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON TAKING EMILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN 30-36 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nTHROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IN 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THERE IS LESS\r\nTHAN A 60 NMI SPREAD IN 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS WERE\r\nSIMILARLY IN STRONG AGREEMENT 3 DAYS AGO...AND NOW EMILY IS 250 NMI\r\nSOUTH OF THOSE FORECAST POSITIONS! THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN\r\nPREMATURE IN WEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT\r\nEXTENDS FROM BERMUDA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALL THE WAY\r\nTO SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...\r\nHEIGHTS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE...IF ANY AT ALL...FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB\r\nACROSS FLORIDA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT 285 DEGREES\r\nAND REMAIN TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A TAD SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN AND NEAR 29C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD EASILY RETAIN AN INTENSITY OF CATEGORY 3\r\nTO CATEGORY 4 UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS OVER THE YUCATAN. AFTER EMILY\r\nEMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...29-30C SSTS SHOULD\r\nHELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AT LEAST A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 13.9N  69.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  71.8W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.8N  75.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N  78.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N  82.2W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  88.0W   100 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N  93.0W   105 KT...OVER SW GULFMEX\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  97.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-07-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY OBSERVING THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS\r\nREPORTED CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 8 AND 25 N MI RESPECTIVELY. THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT EMILY MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. BECAUSE\r\nTHE LAST TIME THE RECON MEASURED WINDS TO SUPPORT CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS NO EYE OBSERVED ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 110 KT IN THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT\r\nWAS FOR DENNIS LAST WEEK.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY\r\nINCREASE THE SHEAR OVER EMILY. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING\r\nINCREASING SHEAR OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nDAYS...ALL GLOBAL MODELS WERE WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW AND THEY\r\nSTILL DO...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME LARGER INSTEAD. THEREFORE...\r\nSOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST BUT ASSUMING THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS WILL\r\nLIKELY BE PARTIALLY CORRECT IN FORECASTING A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT...EMILY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ONCE EMILY CROSSES YUCATAN AND\r\nWEAKENS...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO.\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES\r\nAT 17 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE WHICH IS THE STRONGEST FROM THE BAHAMAS WESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE SINCE ALL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A NORTHWARD\r\nBIAS SO FAR.\r\n\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF EMILY HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE OBSERVED BY THE\r\nNETHERLANDS ANTILLES RADAR LOCATED AT CURACAO.\r\n-\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 14.4N  70.9W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  73.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N  77.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N  80.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  83.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  89.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  94.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  98.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-07-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATE\r\nTHAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED DURING THE DAY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWIND RECORDED AS THE PLANE LEFT THE CYCLONE WAS 101 KNOTS WITH A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 969 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD TO 90 KNOTS AND THIS IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE. IT IS NOT\r\nUNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT WITH THE MID OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nCURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A PERSISTENT LARGE MID TO\r\nUPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER\r\nEMILY. NEVERTHERELESS...THE HURRICANE IS PUTTING UP A GOOD FIGHT\r\nAGAINST THE SHEAR. MODELS UNANIMOUSLY ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING THE\r\nUPPER-LOW AS IT MOVES WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS\r\nOF SUCH WEAKENING YET...AND IN FACT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES\r\nTOWARD THE HURRICANE ARE STRONGER NOW THAN 12 HOURS AGO. THE MODELS\r\nINSIST ON FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. IN\r\nADDITION...EMILY IS HEADING FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WHERE THE\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS HIGH AND HISTORICALLY CYCLONES INTENSIFY.\r\nTHE BEST OPTION DESPITE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF EMILY IS TO\r\nKEEP THE SAME INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND FORECAST A\r\nMODEST INTENSIFICATION THERAFTER.\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS AND\r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNS OF TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST YET.\r\nBECAUSE EMILY IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER-MEAN HIGH TO THE\r\nNORTH...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVES TOWARD THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THIS TURN AND SO FAR IT HAS NOT\r\nMATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT\r\nIT IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 14.7N  72.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 15.2N  75.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.6N  78.9W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.3N  82.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  91.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 25.0N  96.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 27.0N 100.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-07-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUL 15 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS ABRUPTLY STRENGTHENED AGAIN...WHICH WE KNOW THANKS TO\r\nFREQUENT FIXES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nMISSION TONIGHT.  SINCE ABOUT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS FALLEN 15 MB TO 954 MB.  VERY RECENT MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AS HIGH AS 128 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...UP FROM 108 KT IN THAT SAME QUADRANT JUST A\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS AGO.  THE FLIGHT LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE DOUBLE\r\nWIND MAXIMA AT ABOUT 8 AND 50 NMI...SUGGESTING CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALLS...SO A REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT ABLE TO FORECAST SUCH\r\nSTRUCTURAL CHANGES...SO I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 115\r\nKT THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE EMILY IS OVER THE INCREASINGLY\r\nWARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE INTENSITY COULD OF\r\nCOURSE FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH IS COMMON\r\nIN MAJOR HURRICANES.  EMILY MIGHT WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IF IT SPENDS\r\nENOUGH TIME OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME WOBBLES DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...IS ESTIMATED AT 285/16.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTAKES EMILY ON MUCH THIS SAME HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY\r\nPERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL AND SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT...AND A LITTLE\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHEN EMILY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE WHICH HAS THIS TIME SHIFTED SOUTH.  AS WE USUALLY DO\r\nWHEN THE MODELS ARE SHIFTING BACK AND FORTH...I WILL ONLY MAKE A\r\nSLIGHT ADJUSTMENT...A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 15.1N  74.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 15.8N  76.6W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  79.9W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.6N  83.2W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.1N  86.4W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  92.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  96.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 26.5N 101.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-07-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON DATA NEAR 06Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD\r\nFALLEN TO 953 MB...AND A 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 131 KT...OR\r\n118 KT EQUIVALENT SURFACE WINDS...WAS OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT DURING THE OUTBOUND LEG. GIVEN THAT THE 15 NMI DIAMETER\r\nEYE HAS CLEARED OUT NICELY SINCE THE RECON FLIGHT...AND THAT ODT\r\nVALUES OVER THE PAST 1.5H HAVE BEEN T6.5/127 KT...THE INTENSITY FOR\r\nTHE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 120 KT. THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16. EMILY HAS BEEN ON A 285 DEGREE\r\nHEADING FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND I SEE NO INDICATIONS THAT THAT\r\nMOTION SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE ANY TIME SOON. UPPER-AIR DATA AT\r\n00Z INDICATES 24-HOUR 700-400 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS FLORIDA HAVE\r\nINCREASED BY ABOUT 20 METERS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT...AT LEAST IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT MOTION AND\r\nPASS MORE THAN 60 NMI SOUTH OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY. BEYOND THAT...\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON EMILY MAKING LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY 72\r\nHOURS...A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING\r\nTHE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALLOW EMILY TO BRIEFLY MOVE MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS THE\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA AND ALLOWS THE\r\nRIDGE TO BUILD STRONGLY WESTWARD. LOCATION OF A SECOND LANDFALL IS\r\nDIFFCULT TO PREDICT AT 96 HOURS...BUT THE MOST LIKELY AREA APPEARS\r\nTO BE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NICE ROUND CDO...AND WITH\r\nWARMER WATER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW...THE\r\nONLY INHIBITING INTENSITY FACTORS SHOULD BE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES AND LAND INTERACTION. EMILY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ABOUT 30 KT\r\nAS IT PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IT COULD REGAIN CATEGORY 3\r\nSTRENGTH DUE TO 29-30C SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nAND A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 15.6N  75.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.3N  78.3W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N  81.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 18.9N  84.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.3N  87.6W   115 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 23.1N  92.9W    90 KT...OVER SOUTHWEST GULFMEX\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 25.0N  97.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 102.5W    35 KT...INLAND OVER NRN MEXICO\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-07-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER ROUND OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 943 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS AS HIGH AS 148 KT.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 130-135 KT.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND EYEWALL\r\nDROPSONDES DO NOT YET SUPPORT WINDS THIS HIGH.  THUS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/16...JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  EMILY IS ON THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING\r\nOVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH\r\nCENTRAL U.S.  EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR AT LEAST\r\n48 HR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA OF MEXICO.  AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW\r\nMUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS.  THE MODEL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS MADE A LARGE SHIFT TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS CALLING FOR THE\r\nRIDGE TO FILL IN AND LANDFALL IN EAST CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK WILL ALSO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS BECOME WELL ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED 13 N MI WIDE\r\nEYE AND A STRONG OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE\r\nMAJOR FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN\r\nWILL BE HARD TO PREDICT EYEWALL CYCLES...WITH PERHAPS SOME\r\nINFLUENCE FROM DRY AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE.  EMILY\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN OVER YUCATAN...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 16.2N  77.3W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N  79.7W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.5N  83.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.9N  86.2W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.3N  89.4W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  94.5W   105 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N  99.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N 103.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-07-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  AT ABOUT 17Z...AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 937 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS AS HIGH AS 151 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THIS SUPPORTS\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KT.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT EMILY\r\nHAS GOTTEN STRONGER SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE DOES NOT YET SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS...SO\r\nANY FURTHER INCREASE IN THE INTITAL WINDS WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT\r\nAIRCRAFT SCHEDULED NEAR 00Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  EMILY IS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF\r\nA DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THIS RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BUILD SLOWLY WESTWARD...WITH PERHAPS A WEAKNESS REMAINING\r\nOVER EASTERN TEXAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTH\r\nCENTRAL U.S.  EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA OF MEXICO.  AFTER THAT...THE EXACT TRACK DEPENDS ON HOW\r\nMUCH WEAKNESS THERE IS IN THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE LAST SET OF RUNS...EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND IS NOW THE RIGHT OUTLIER. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GUNS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE\r\nENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS\r\n20 KT OF SHEAR AFFECTING EMILY FROM WHICH IT FORECASTS WEAKENING...\r\nBUT THIS SHEAR IS NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SATELLITE-\r\nDERIVED WINDS FROM CIMSS.  A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED NO\r\nEVIDENCE OF AN OUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH THERE WAS SOME OUTER\r\nBANDING THAT COULD SOON WRAP UP INTO AN OUTER EYEWALL. \r\nCOMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A MAXIMUM\r\nPOTENTIAL INTENSITY OF 155-160 KT...WHILE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL\r\nINTENSITIES FROM COLA ARE CLOSER TO 135 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL OSCILLATE AROUND\r\n135 KT AS THE HURRICANE GOES THROUGH INTERNAL CYCLES.  HOWEVER...IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF EMILY BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE\r\nFOR SOME PART OF THE NEXT 24 HR.  EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER\r\nYUCATAN...BUT STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\n12 FT SEAS RADII WERE GREATLY REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\nBASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42058.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII\r\nWERE SOMEWHAT REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 16.8N  78.8W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.7N  81.2W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.1N  84.4W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N  87.7W   125 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 21.6N  90.7W   100 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N  96.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N 104.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-07-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUL 16 2005\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY STEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AS A HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  HOWEVER... AN\r\nAIRCRAFT RECON FIX AT 2340Z DID INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD\r\nFALLEN 8 MB SINCE 18Z TO 929 MB... AND A MORE RECENT FIX MEASURED\r\n931 MB.  THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT WAS 149 KT... WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT\r\n135 KT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA AND 7.0 FROM\r\nTAFB... SO THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS ON WHICH TO UPGRADE TO A\r\nCATEGORY FIVE AT THIS TIME.  SINCE BOTH THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPEAR TO POSE NOTHING\r\nOBVIOUS TO WEAKEN EMILY... INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES WILL LIKELY\r\nDETERMINE INTENSITY CHANGES BEFORE EMILY PASSED OVER OR NEAR THE\r\nCOAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME EMILY SPENDS\r\nOVER YUCATAN... BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT IT WILL MAINTAIN MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK... NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/16.  THIS EXTRAPOLATED MOTION IS USED\r\nTO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OUT TO ABOUT 36 HOURS...\r\nAND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.... SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY THE\r\nSOUTHERN OUTLIERS... DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR SHORT-TERM\r\nMOTION VERY WELL.  IF ANYTHING... THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTHWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUNS... SO I SEE NO REASON TO SHIFT\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT IS STILL TO SOON...\r\nHOWEVER... TO DETERMINE IF LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND\r\nWILL OCCUR IN NORTHERN MEXICO OR IN TEXAS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 17.5N  80.3W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 18.5N  82.6W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.8N  85.8W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 22.2N  92.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  97.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 25.0N 105.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-07-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005\r\n \r\nAT 0324Z...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 153 KT.  THE STANDARD ADJUSTMENT OF\r\nTHIS VALUE TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD 138 KT...OR JUST ABOVE THE\r\nCATEGORY FIVE THRESHOLD.  AT THAT TIME HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND ON THE NEXT PASS THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT ONLY 132 KT WINDS WERE FOUND.  IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT EMILY REACHED CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY BRIEFLY AROUND 03Z.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 130 KT.  WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS\r\nRESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...CONDITIONS ARE OTHERWISE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL IT REACHES\r\nTHE YUCATAN.  DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE TRACK...EMILY COULD SPEND\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND SUCH A SMALL SYSTEM\r\nIS LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nWILL BE AMPLE TIME IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF\r\nWATERS FOR EMILY TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE ITS FINAL\r\nLANDFALL. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/17.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE FOR THE DURATION.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...EMILY WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING A MODEST MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS...AND THIS COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN A RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF\r\nTHE TRACK BEFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION RESUMES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 18.0N  82.0W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 18.9N  84.5W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 20.2N  87.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  90.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 22.7N  93.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N  97.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-07-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE\r\nPAST 12 HR.  THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 946 MB...WITH\r\nMAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 142 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 130 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/17.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER\r\nTHE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR FORECAST TRACK.  EMILY REMAINS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nATLANTIC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO TEXAS.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO GENERALLY PERSIST...WITH A WEAKNESS\r\nPERHAPS DEVELOPING IN 36-48 HR OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST AS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.  TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nFOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FILLS.  WHETHER THE WEAKNESS WILL BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE.  HOWEVER...THE TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nIT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED IS DUE TO AN\r\nINTERNAL CYCLE OR EXTERNAL FORCING.  A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS DOES\r\nNOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND WHILE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS\r\nDIMINISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS\r\nOF SHEAR AT THIS TIME.  EMILY CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE\r\nTOPS...SO THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION OR\r\nFLUCTUATIONS BEFORE LANDFALL IN YUCATAN.  EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN OVER\r\nYUCATAN... THEN RE-INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY\r\nAFTER LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 18.6N  83.6W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  85.9W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.9N  88.9W   110 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 22.2N  91.6W    85 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 23.1N  94.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-07-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nINDCIATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF EMILY HAD RISEN TO 948\r\nMB...AND THAT THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED\r\nTO 134 KT IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.  SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE ARE\r\nMIXED SIGNALS ON THE STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THERE HAS BEEN\r\nSIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE EYE\r\nHAS BECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 125\r\nKT BASED ON THE LAST AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE CANCUN RADAR SUGGESTS AN\r\nOUTER EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING...ALTHOUGH THE RADAR CAN NOT YET\r\nRELIABLY SEE THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE EYE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17...JUST A LITTLE RIGHT OF 6 HR AGO. \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...LIKELY\r\nDUE TO BETTER MODEL ANALYSES OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS SUBSEQUENT IMPACT ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN U.S. RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR MORE\r\nOF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST.  THIS\r\nCAUSES THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO FORECAST LESS OF A WESTWARD TURN WHILE\r\nEMILY IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES THE MODELS TO\r\nFORECAST LANDFALL FARTHER TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED A LITTLE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE\r\nTO THE GUIDANCE SHIFT AND IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE INSTEAD OF THE NORTHERN EDGE.  THIS CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO SOUTHERN TEXAS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE COOLING TOPS AND THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...A BURST OF INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL CANNOT BE\r\nRULED OUT.  HOWEVER...IF AN OUTER EYEWALL IS FORMING THIS BECOMES\r\nLESS LIKELY.  EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...THEN\r\nRE-INTENSIFY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOW MUCH EMILY COULD\r\nINTENSIFY OVER THE GULF WILL DEPEND ON JUST WHAT STRUCTURE EMERGES\r\nFROM YUCATAN...SO THERE IS A LARGER THAN NORMAL POSSIBLE ERROR ON\r\nTHE 24-48 HR INTENSITY FORECASTS.  NEVERTHELESS...EMILY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTH AMERICAN MAINLAND AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 19.4N  85.2W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N  87.5W   125 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 21.8N  90.4W    90 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N  93.2W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 23.9N  95.7W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 100.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 25.5N 105.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-07-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 134 KT\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0018Z.  NORMALLY THIS WOULD CORRESPOND\r\nTO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 120 KT.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING STEADILY AND IS NOW UP TO 955 MB. \r\nTHEREFORE IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INTENSITY IS JUST A LITTLE LOWER\r\nAT THIS TIME...115 KT.  THIS IS STILL CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...AND\r\nEMILY REMAINS A FORMIDABLE HURRICANE.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM CANCUN\r\nSHOWS THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE  FLUCTUATING...BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE\r\nINDICATIONS OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS.  A WEAK\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY HAVE BEEN IMPARTING\r\nSOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24\r\nHOURS....CREATING AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS TO\r\nBE CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...ONCE THE CENTER MOVES\r\nBACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IS PREDICTED.  JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS\r\nIS PARTLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED\r\nAFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...295/16...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  THE GFS MODEL\r\nINDICATES THAT A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY CAUSE A SLIGHT\r\nEROSION IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO RESTRENGTHEN\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAS\r\nSHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH FOR THIS PACKAGE...WITH THE\r\nGFS SHOWING THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACK.  INTERESTINGLY...THAT MODEL HAS\r\nHAD THE LOWEST 72 HR TRACK ERROR OF ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR\r\nEMILY...THUS FAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN TEXAS\r\nCOAST...EARLY ON MONDAY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 19.9N  86.5W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N  88.9W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 22.3N  91.7W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.3N  94.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.1N  96.8W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N 102.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-07-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE EMILY PASSED OVER COZUMEL A FEW HOURS AGO.\r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OVERFLEW THE ISLAND\r\nDURING THE EYEWALL PASSAGE...AT 05Z...AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT. AT 0322Z...THEY REPORTED 141 KT. LANDFALL\r\nOCCURRED NEAR 0630Z JUST NORTH OF TULUM. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT EMILY LIKELY MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT. NO OBSERVATIONS HAVE YET\r\nBEEN RECEIVED FROM THE LANDFALL AREA.\r\n\r\nEMILY WILL BE SPENDING ROUGHLY 9 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN...BUT IS\r\nLIKELY TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THIS PASSAGE. A WEAK\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MAY BE CONTRIBUTING SOME\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EMILY...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHIS UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN WITHIN 12-24\r\nHOURS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nLIKELY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  JUST HOW MUCH EMILY RESTRENGTHENS IS PARTLY\r\nDEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT THAT THE INNER CORE IS DISRUPTED AFTER\r\nPASSING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.    \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...295/15...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO BASICALLY UNCHANGED. NOAA AND AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CONDUCTED SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS IN\r\nTHE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN LAST NIGHT. DROPSONDE DATA FROM\r\nTHESE MISSIONS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOLIDLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN\r\nA LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH. THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE COULD ALSO RESULT IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE\r\nTRACK. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE INFLUENCES SHOULD DIMINISH IN\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AND THE TRACK SHOULD THEN BEND BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE LEFT. THE GFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL WITH THIS STORM...IS\r\nON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS\r\nON THE NORTHERN EGDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IN FACT HAS OUTPERFORMED BOTH\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND GFS WITH THIS CYCLONE. NONE OF THE STANDARD GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A LANDFALL IN SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE AVERAGE 48 HOUR TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 140 NMI...SUCH A\r\nLANDFALL IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\n1-MINUTE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 WERE HELPFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34\r\nKT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 20.6N  88.0W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 21.6N  90.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 22.9N  92.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 23.8N  95.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 24.4N  97.7W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N 103.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-07-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2005\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nEMILY IS BACK OVER WATER. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE REACHES THE AREA LATER TODAY.  EMILY IS CURRENTLY OVER\r\nRELATIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH NORMALLY PREVAILS NEAR THE NORTH\r\nCOAST OF YUCATAN...BUT LATER TODAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO\r\nMOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE UPPER-LOW IS STILL IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALL GLOBAL MODELS\r\nGET RID OF THE LOW AND DEVELOP A WELL-DEFINED 200 MB HIGH OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LOW SHEAR ALONG THE TRACK.\r\nTHEREFORE...RE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AND EMILY IS FORECAST\r\nTO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nEMILY...AS ANTICIPATED...IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BETWEEN\r\n295 AND 300 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...AROUND A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. A WEAKNESS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE MAY INDUCE A\r\nSMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT TEMPORARILY. HOWEVER...THE WEAKNESS \r\nIS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE WHICH EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE\r\nEMILY TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRINGS\r\nTHE CENTER OF EMILY OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA FROM CANCUN AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS PROVIDED BY BOTH\r\nTHE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE AND THE MEXICAN NAVY HAVE BEEN VERY\r\nUSEFUL IN TRACKING AND FORECASTING EMILY.         \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 21.8N  89.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 22.8N  91.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 23.9N  94.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  96.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N  99.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 25.5N 104.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-07-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO EMILY TODAY AND CONFIRMED\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE WEAKENED AS SUGGESTED BY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO 984 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS MEASURED BY THE\r\nSFMR SUPPORT ONLY A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE INNER CORE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE WAS DISRUPTED OVER YUCATAN BUT SATELLITE STILL SHOWS\r\nSEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION WITH A FAIR OUTFLOW. THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN\r\nTO MOVE OVER THE WARMER WATERS...ABOUT 30 DEGREE CELSIUS...OF THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOON AND THE SHEAR IS LOW ALONG THE TRACK.\r\nIN ADDITION...ALL GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE 200 MB\r\nANTICYLONE OVER EMILY WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THEREFORE...\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE EMILY WEAKENED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER YUCATAN...IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nREACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT IT IS\r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nEMILY CONTINUES ON TRACK...ABOUT 295/14 KNOTS AROUND THE DEEP LAYER\r\nMEAN HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS\r\nHIGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND COULD EVEN BUILD WESTWARD. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD KEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL OVER THE STATE OF TAMAULIPAS...NORTHEAST MEXICO IN ABOUT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTRACK...OR A HURRICANE LARGER THAN FORECAST...COULD BRING STRONGER\r\nWINDS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER\r\nTEXAS COAST.       \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 22.3N  91.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N  93.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  95.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 24.5N  98.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-07-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2005\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO WRAP AROUND EMILY'S LARGE RAGGED\r\nEYE...AND...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT YET\r\nFALLEN...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 90 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYE WALL.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A\r\nSURFACE WIND OF 80 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RATHER SYMMETRIC AS EMILY SHEDS THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLATEST GFDL MODEL RUN.  EMILY COULD BE APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN\r\nRAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND IS ABOUT 300/13.  ALL\r\nAVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL LANDFALL.  THE 18Z GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE NORTH BUT THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...AND IN\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 22.9N  92.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 23.6N  93.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 24.2N  96.2W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N  98.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-07-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT EMILY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  WHILE THE MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 90 KT...THE WINDS INCREASED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ON THE LAST PASS...AND THE\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS DECREASED.  SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS\r\nCOVERED THE EYE SEEN EARLIER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT...AND\r\nTHIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.  THE NEXT PLANE IS SCHEDULED\r\nTO ARRIVE IN EMILY ABOUT 0930Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13...WITH THE EYE WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300\r\nDEGREES ACCORDING TO THE AIRCRAFT FIXES.  EMILY REMAINS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...\r\nWITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HR.  RAWINSONDE DATA FROM TEXAS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY\r\nBE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...AS 20-30 METER\r\nHEIGHT RISES WERE NOTED.  ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE EMILY IN THE RIGHT PLACE. \r\nOVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EMILY SHOULD TURN\r\nWESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE BIG\r\nQUESTION OF WHEN AND HOW SHARP WILL THE TURN BE.  SINCE THE STORM\r\nIS NOT YET OFF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE...THE NEW TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  HOWEVER...IF THE TURN IS LATER OR MORE GRADUAL THAN\r\nFORECAST...EMILY COULD MAKE LANDFALL CLOSER TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO\r\nBORDER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWITH THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND THE RETURN OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILY TO STRENGTHEN\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO\r\nREACH CATEGORY THREE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...A VALUE SOMEWHAT\r\nABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS GFDL\r\nRUN.  EMILY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nIF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD\r\nSTAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO\r\nTHE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO TEXAS.  THEREFORE...\r\nA HURRICANE WARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TEXAS\r\nCOAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 23.5N  93.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 24.1N  95.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 24.5N  97.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N  99.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":35,"Date":"2005-07-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE NWS BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT EMILY HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING.  WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN AT A RATE OF ABOUT\r\n1 MB PER HOUR THE PAST 12 HOURS...THIS HAS NOT EQUATED TO AN\r\nINCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...YET. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 92 KT WERE OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON THE\r\nOUTBOUND LEG AT ABOUT 1445Z. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12.  THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE\r\nWOBBLE ABOUT THIS MEAN MOTION...WITH A RECENT WOBBLE TO THE WEST.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS TYPE OF MOTION IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR HURRICANES THAT\r\nARE UNDERGOING RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. UPPER\r\nAIR DATA AT 19/12Z INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTHAT LIES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO\r\nSOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A GENERAL 290-295 DEGREE MOTION IS\r\nPROBABLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AFTER THAT. THIS MOTION IS SUPPORTED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ORECAST AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH\r\nEMILY BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPEICALLY SINCE\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EYE\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS ARE ACTUALLY T6.0/115 KT AND HIGHER...BUT RECON\r\nDATA INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOT THAT HIGH. HOWEVER...WITH LOW\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 29.5C SSTS AHEAD OF EMILY...ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.\r\n \r\nIF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD\r\nSTAY SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO\r\nTHE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR SOUTH TEXAS. EVEN\r\nIF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC EXPERIMENTAL\r\nPRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUSTAINED \r\nTROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 23.9N  94.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 24.4N  96.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 24.6N  98.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 24.6N 100.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 24.6N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":36,"Date":"2005-07-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nDOPPLER RADAR...SATELLITE IMAGES...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT EMILY\r\nIS STILL GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nDECREASED ABOUT 14 MB IN THE PAST 4 HOURS...BUT THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 96 KT ON THE OUTBOUND LEG \r\nAT 1939Z. HOWEVER...THE RECON WIND DATA ALSO INDICATED A TRIPLE WIND\r\nMAXIMUM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT ABOUT 20...40...AND 50 N MI\r\nFROM THE CENTER. THIS HAS LIKELY SPREAD OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT\r\nAND...FORTUNATELY...NOT ALLOWED THE WINDS TO INCREASE TO MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH LIKE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WOULD TYPICALLY\r\nSUPPORT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND IMPROVE IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...BUT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nWHEN THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES ARE SMOOTHED OUT...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 290/10. RADAR AND RECON DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nINNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE HAVE PROBABLY STABILIZED NOW. SPECIAL\r\n18Z UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE THAT LIES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GULF COAST WESTWARD TO\r\nSOUTHEASTERN AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST\r\n24 HOURS.  AS SUCH...A GENERAL 285-290 DEGREES MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN UP UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST AFTERWARDS.\r\nEVEN IF EMILY WAS TO MAINTAIN A 295 DEGREE MOTION...THE EYE WOULD\r\nSTILL REMAIN AT LEAST 50 N MI SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BORDER. THE GFDL\r\nAND GFS MODELS ARE ALREADY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT POSITION...SO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A TAD NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL EMILY'S WINDS FINALLY ADJUST TO THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE? THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR OUT IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS ALSO CONTRACTED AS\r\nSEEN IN THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DOPPLER RADAR DATA. THE TRIPLE WIND\r\nMAXIMUM IS STILL NOTED IN THE RADAR DATA...BUT THE REFLECTIVITY IN\r\nTHOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAS DECREASED. THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT THE\r\nOUTER WIND FIELD IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE\r\nINNER WIND FIELD TO SPIN UP. GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN AND SSTS OF 85F AND WARMER...A PERIOD OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO RIGHT UP\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE ROUGH AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nIF EMILY FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS WOULD\r\nLIKELY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.  HOWEVER...ANY\r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO FAR\r\nSOUTH TEXAS. EVEN IF EMILY BENDS TO THE WEST AS FORECAST...AN NHC\r\nEXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT SHOWS THERE IS AT LEAST AN 85 PERCENT CHANCE\r\nOF SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 24.3N  95.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 24.6N  97.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.7N  99.3W    35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":37,"Date":"2005-07-19 23:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n7 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY OF EMILY.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB\r\nFROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 122 KT AT 2126Z...\r\nSUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  THE WINDS HAVE NOW\r\nCAUGHT UP TO THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT WAS ALREADY TYPICAL\r\nOF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  ADDITIONALLY... THE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE\r\nLATEST AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS... AND EMILY COULD REACH\r\nCATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nNOT BEEN CHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2300Z 24.5N  96.0W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 24.6N  97.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.7N  99.3W    40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.7N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":38,"Date":"2005-07-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST TWO RECON FIXES JUST PRIOR TO 00Z INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STILL FALLING... ALTHOUGH MORE SLOWLY THAN IT\r\nHAD BEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE THE AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED\r\nTHAT THE MEASUREMENT 942 MB AT 2114Z WAS SUSPECT... THERE IS\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE 948 MB MEASURED AT 2318Z... AND A MORE RECENT FIX\r\nNEAR 02Z OF 944 MB INDICATED THE DECREASING TREND CONTINUES.  THE\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 122 KT AT 2126Z REMAINS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGED FROM 100 TO 115 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n110 KT.  THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF EMILY IS IMPRESSIVE... WITH A 17\r\nNM WIDE EYE AND A WELL-DEFINED INNER EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY A\r\nCONCENTRIC BAND AT A RADIUS OF 35 NMI.  GIVEN THE PRESSURE FALLS\r\nAND WELL-ORGANIZED INTERNAL STRUCTURES... SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nEMILY TOOK A JOG TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN BRIEFLY STALLED BETWEEN 23Z\r\nAND 01Z... BUT A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS TO HAVE\r\nRESUMED... ESTIMATED AT 285/6.  00Z UPPER DATA INDICATES NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  EMILY SHOULD STEADILY MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AS ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST.  THIS SHOULD BRING EMILY TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST\r\nOF MEXICO WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND WELL INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS\r\nINTERIOR MEXICO BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE\r\nSAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER DUE TO\r\nTHE RECENT STALL.\r\n \r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS BASED\r\nON BUOY DATA... AND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nBASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL DATA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 24.5N  96.4W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 24.7N  97.8W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 24.7N 100.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":39,"Date":"2005-07-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND\r\nWSR-88D DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOW THAT EMILY HAS A CLASSIC\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE THIS MORNING...WITH DIAMETERS OF 16 AND\r\n50 N MI.  THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE OUTER EYEWALL...WITH THE AIRCRAFT\r\nRECENTLY REPORTING 107 KT 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THAT AREA. \r\nTHE DEEPENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED...WITH THE\r\nAIRCRAFT-MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURES HOVERING IN THE 943-945 MB\r\nRANGE SINCE 02Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 110 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 285/7.  A BUILDING LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER TEXAS SHOULD TURN EMILY TO A WESTERLY TRACK IN THE NEXT\r\n12 HR OR SO...AND THIS MOTION PERSIST UNTIL EMILY DISSIPATES OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nEMILY IS JUST ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE PRESENCE OF\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALLS SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS STILL A\r\nCHANCE THAT EMILY COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IF\r\nFRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE CAUSES THE OUTER EYEWALL TO TIGHTEN UP AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...AND EMILY SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON BUOY DATA... AND THE\r\nWIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SLIGHTLY MORE BASED ON RECENT AIRCRAFT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL DATA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 24.7N  97.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 24.8N  98.6W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 24.8N 100.7W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emily","Adv":40,"Date":"2005-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES\r\nTHAT SUPPORTED 110 KT RIGHT AT LANDFALL...WITH APPROXIMATE SURFACE\r\nWIND ESTIMATES ALONG THE COAST OF 100 KT RIGHT UP UNTIL ABOUT 1330Z\r\nAFTER EMILY HAD MOVED INLAND. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST HOUR...\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 100 KT...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 90 KT. EVEN THOUGH EMILY IS AT LEAST 30 N MI\r\nINLAND...IT STILL HAS GOOD INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AND BOTH THE EYE\r\nAND EYEWALL REMAIN WELL DEFINED...AS DOES THE OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY A STEADY 280/09. UPPER AIR DATA AT 12Z\r\nINDICATES THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS HAS\r\nREMAINED INTACT AND HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD\r\nKEEP EMILY ON A GENERAL WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. BY\r\n24 HOURS...THE 10000 FT PEAKS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN\r\nRANGE WILL LIKELY SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MID-\r\nAND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE SURFACE/LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY\r\nACTUALLY REMAIN BEHIND EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE...WHILE THE REST\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nEMILY SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN TODAY AND WILL LIKELY BE BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF EMILY WILL BE\r\nWELL INLAND BY 12 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM STATUS IS BEING MAINTAINED\r\nAT THAT TIME DUE TO THE LARGE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD THAT\r\nEXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WATER AND ALONG THE COASTAL\r\nAREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD\r\nOCCUR BY 24 TO 36 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 25.0N  98.1W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 25.1N  99.4W    40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 25.2N 101.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":41,"Date":"2005-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VELOCITIES\r\nTHAT SUPPORTED 70 KT AT THE 18Z SYNOPTIC TIME. SINCE THEN...HOWEVER\r\n...THEY HAVE DECREASED TO 65-67 KT AT 9000 FT ALONG THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICAN COAST...WHICH ONLY SUPPORTS ABOUT 60 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE. THEREFORE...TENACIOUS EMILY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS FINALLY...WESTWARD...AT 275/10. NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\n...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET SHEARED AWAY FROM THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AFTER 18 HOURS AND POSSIBLY REMAIN BEHIND\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...A 24-HOUR POSITION WAS\r\nINCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES FOR THOSE USERS WHO MAY NEED AN\r\n18-HOUR INTERMEDIATE POSITION.\r\n \r\nEMILY SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER INCREASINGLY HIGHER TERRAIN...AND COULD BECOME A\r\nDEPRESSION LATER THIS EVENING. COMPLETE DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR BY\r\n24-30 HOURS WHEN EMILY IS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 25.0N  99.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 25.1N 100.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 25.1N 103.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":42,"Date":"2005-07-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER... BUT A STRONG RAINBAND PERSISTS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nBETWEEN MONTERREY MEXICO AND THE TEXAS BORDER.  DOPPLER VELOCITIES\r\nFROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS RADAR STILL INDICATE WINDS NEAR 50 KT AT\r\nABOUT 10000 FEET IN THAT BAND... SUGGESTING THAT WINDS NEAR 45 KT\r\nCOULD STILL BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  EMILY THEREFORE REMAINS\r\nA 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW.  INITIAL MOTION IS DUE WESTWARD AT\r\nABOUT 9 KT... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. \r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS JUST ABOUT TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN\r\nSLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR NORTHEAST\r\nMEXICO... AND THIS SHOULD SOON LEAD TO A DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE CONVECTION.  EMILY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW\r\nWEDNESDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER... THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS\r\nOVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...\r\nAND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 25.0N 100.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 25.0N 101.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":43,"Date":"2005-07-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF EMILY HAS REACHED THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE.  AT THIS MOMENT...THE STRONGEST REMAINING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS IN BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...MOST NOTABLY IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THE DECAY...DECREASING WINDS ON\r\nTHE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM MONTERREY MEXICO...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT.  SOME HIGHER WINDS MAY\r\nOCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS\r\nOF NORTHERN MEXICO IN 12-24 HR.  THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL\r\nCONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE\r\nREMNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER MOVES WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 25.0N 101.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 25.0N 102.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":44,"Date":"2005-07-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 21 2005\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF EMILY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE\r\nSIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nHAVE CONTINUED WESTWARD. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nPRESSURES CONTINUE TO RISE AND WINDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 15-20\r\nKT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/02. THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD AND REACH THE\r\nWEST COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 110W AND 112W LONGITUDE IN 36-48 HOURS\r\nAND MOVE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. NO REGENERATION\r\nIS EXPECTED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC OWING TO THE COLD WATER THAT LIES\r\nWEST OF BAJA.\r\n\r\nWHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RADAR IMAGERY FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS\r\nINDICATES A PERSISTENT BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIES ALONG THE\r\nEAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SO WHILE EMILY IS NO LONGER\r\nTECHNICALLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 3 TO 5\r\nINCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS TO NEAR 8 INCHES...WILL STILL BE\r\nPOSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AS DEEP MOIST TROPICAL AIR COMES IN\r\nFROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLOWS UPSLOPE TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS.\r\nTHERE IS A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES FROM THIS\r\nDECAYING SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE FINALLY ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 25.0N 101.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 25.0N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-07-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STRONG TROPICAL\r\nWAVE JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND HAVE FOUND WINDS THAT SUPPORT AT\r\nLEAST A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN\r\nINITIATED ON TD-6. CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS\r\nTIME OF THE DAY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE\r\nDURING THE DAY...INCLUDING THE RESTRICTED SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...BASED ON THE PAST 3 HOURS OF\r\nSATELLITE POSITIONS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE SURFACE TO 850 MB CIRCULATION NORTHWARD\r\nAND THEN RECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL/500\r\nMB CIRCULATION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIDGE AXIS AND STALL IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND\r\nALLOWS THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE WEST. AFTER THAT...SOME OF\r\nTHE MODELS MEANDER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EAST OR SOUTHWARD...WHILE THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTOWARD FLORIDA. THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS ACTUALLY TAKE THE\r\nDEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY\r\nSUGGESTS SLOW MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD\r\nAND MAKING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP WELL EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA\r\nCOAST.\r\n\r\nTHE WATER AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE WARM...AROUND 29C...AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST REMAIN LOW WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 TO 72 HOURS. NOTE...THE AIRCRAFT HAS\r\nJUST REPORTED AT 2114Z FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...WHICH WOULD\r\nNORMALLY SUPPORT UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM.\r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND WE WOULD PREFER TO SEE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION PERSIST BEFORE UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 25.3N  75.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 26.3N  76.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  77.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 28.5N  77.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 29.0N  77.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 28.5N  76.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-07-22 00:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN.  DATA FROM AN AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS AT LEAST 40 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED DURING THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS BUT REMAINS 60 KT AT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/12... AND THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0000Z 25.8N  76.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 26.3N  76.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  77.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 28.5N  77.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 29.0N  77.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 28.5N  76.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-07-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUL 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHORTLY BEFORE 00Z\r\nINDICATED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINED 1009 MB... AND MAXIMUM\r\n1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AS STRONG AS 57 KT WERE MEASURED WITHIN\r\nA CONVECTIVE BURST RIGHT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS WOULD\r\nNORMALLY CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT... BUT SINCE\r\nTHE PRESSURE WAS RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS\r\nQUITE DISORGANIZED... WITH DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 2.0 AND 2.5... THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  RECON WILL ONCE AGAIN\r\nINVESTIGATE FRANKLIN ON FRIDAY MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/11.  FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST WITHIN A RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND BE\r\nWITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO PROVIDE ENOUGH IMPETUS\r\nTOWARD THE EAST TO RECURVE FRANKLIN TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC. \r\nHOWEVER... AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE TROUGH WILL BYPASS\r\nFRANKLIN AND ALLOW THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE TO HALT ITS EXODUS\r\nOUT TO SEA AND PERHAPS EVEN EVENTUALLY STEER IT BACK TO THE WEST. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN IS LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR AXIS WHICH IS IMPARTING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER... THE\r\nSHEAR AXIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN... WHICH COULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO\r\nGRADUALLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALONG THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE TROPICAL STORM WOULD REMAIN OVER\r\n27-28C SSTS EVEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PERHAPS BE\r\nIMPACTED BY MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR.  INTENSIFICATION TO A\r\nHURRICANE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IF FRANKLIN MOVES MORE QUICKLY OUT\r\nTO SEA... THIS WOULD BE UNLIKELY... BUT IF IT BECOMES TRAPPED SOUTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... THE\r\nENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN IS\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN IS THE EARLIEST SIXTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD IN THE\r\nATLANTIC BASIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 26.1N  76.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 27.2N  77.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 28.5N  77.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 29.5N  77.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 30.0N  76.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  75.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 31.0N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 31.0N  73.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-07-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE COOLING AS THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM\r\nAPPROACHES...FRANKLIN HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THIS MORNING.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS POORLY\r\nORGANIZED...WITH THE STRONGEST CLUSTER EAST OF THE CENTER.  SURFACE\r\nREPORTS FROM GREAT ABACO HAVE NOT YET SHOWN THE TIGHT CENTER\r\nREPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES.  A NEW\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD REACH FRANKLIN AROUND 12Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305-310 AT 10 KT.  FRANKLIN IS HEADING FOR A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA AS A DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE\r\nCENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nRESPOND TO THIS PATTERN BY RECURVING FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCELERATING IT OUT TO SEA.  THIS INCLUDES BOTH THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET...WHICH WERE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO STALL IN EARLIER RUNS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE BAMM AND BAMD STILL CALL FOR FRANKLIN TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...WHILE THE NHC98 CALLS FOR A 5-DAY LOOP NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE IF FRANKLIN\r\nMISSES CONNECTING WITH THE ONCOMING TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...CALLLING FOR FRANKLIN TO\r\nRECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED\r\nTHEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR\r\nAXIS...WITH WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WEST OF THE AXIS TRYING TO PUSH\r\nTHE AXIS ACROSS THE CENTER AND PRODUCE SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD AT LEAST\r\nSLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN THE LONGER TERM...HOW\r\nFAST FRANKLIN MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WILL DETERMINE HOW\r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE FOR STRENGTHENING.  A FASTER MOTION WOULD\r\nPLACE THE STORM EAST OF THE ONCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH\r\nWOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING.  A SLOWER MOTION WOULD ALLOW THE\r\nTROUGH TO RUN OVER THE STORM AND EXPOSE IT TO NORTHERLY SHEAR.  THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH NOW RACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...NEVER\r\nSTRENGTHENS IT ABOVE 60 KT...AND THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES\r\nNOT STRENGTHEN IT MUCH ABOVE 65 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL\r\nAND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 26.7N  77.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 27.6N  77.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 29.0N  77.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 29.9N  76.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  75.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 31.5N  73.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 32.5N  69.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 34.0N  64.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-07-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF FRANKLIN HAS IMPROVED THIS\r\nMORNING AND THE SHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE HAS LESSENED. THIS HAS\r\nALLOWED FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND FOR THE CLOUD PATTERN TO BECOME MORE CIRCULAR. THE\r\nSURFACE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS NOTED BY A\r\n1046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AND SURFACE OBS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND\r\nFLORIDA. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 49 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT A 39-KT SURFACE WIND.\r\nHOWEVER...THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF\r\n55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nCONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 45 KT...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/02 KT. THE FIRST TWO RECON\r\nPOSITIONS HAVE COME IN EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITIONS...\r\nAND THE MOST RECENT FIX CAME IN ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nFIRST ONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND\r\nMELBOURNE INDICATE LITTLE OVERALL NET MOTION...OTHER PERHAPS A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND 12Z INDICATE THAT\r\nFRANKLIN APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OR WITHIN A \r\nFAIRLY STOUT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. AS RESULT...THERE MAY BE\r\nSOME SLOW ERRATIC MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO AND\r\nTENNESSEE VALLEYS MOVES EASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST AND WEAKENS\r\nTHE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME AND...IF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN THE CYCLONE WOULD MOVE\r\nTHROUGH THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...FRANKLIN\r\nIS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA AND TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST. THIS ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS NHC98 AND A9UK...WHICH MAKE A SMALL\r\nLOOP NORTH OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THEN TURN FRANKLIN BACK\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 96 HOURS. THE DEEP AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS\r\nHAVE ALSO PERSISTED WITH THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE\r\nCYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN 72-96\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS STEADILY WEAKEND THIS MORNING...AND\r\nTHE VARIOUS MODELS FORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AS PER THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. IF\r\nFRANKLIN REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND DOES NOT RECURVE AS\r\nFORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES AFTER 48 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE\r\nHIGHER THAN INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 26.8N  77.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 27.7N  77.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 29.0N  77.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 29.9N  76.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.4N  74.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.3N  71.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 32.5N  68.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 34.0N  62.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-07-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005\r\n \r\nDRY AIR HAS WRAPPED UP THE EAST SIDE AND INTO THE CENTER...WHICH HAS\r\nERODED THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE INNER CORE. BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE ALSO COME AND GONE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND IN THE MELBOURNE RADAR DARA. AROUND 1532Z...AIR FORCE RECON\r\nFOUND 53 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH\r\nEQUALS A 42-43 KT SURFACE WIND...WHILE THE ONBOARD METEOROLOGIST\r\nAGAIN ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55-60 IN THE SAME AREA. HOWEVER...\r\nTHAT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED DUE TO THE DRY AIR...SO\r\nTHOSE SURFACE WINDS WERE LIKELY ENHANCED BY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS. AS\r\nSUCH...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...ESPECIALLY\r\nSINCE THE PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN BELOW 1007 MB...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS A RAGGED LOOKING APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/08 KT. RECON AND RADAR POSITION ESTIMATES\r\nINDICATE FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A STEADY 8 KT OR SO\r\nSINCE ABOUT 14Z. ACCORDING TO THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE NHC\r\nMODELS...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN AND ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SPECIAL 18Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN OHIO\r\nAND TENNESSEE VALLEYS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nSHOULD BE ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. IF THE\r\nSHORTWAVE IS STRONG ENOUGH...THEN IT MAY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN...AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE\r\nIT AWAY FROM THE U.S. HOWEVER...THE GFS... UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMODELS NOW ONLY TAKE FRANKLIN AS FAR NORTH AS 30N LATITUDE IN 36-48\r\nHOURS...AND THEN LEAVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND WHILE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.\r\nWHILE THIS SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE...IT WOULD MEAN THAT FRANKLIN WOULD\r\nCEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THOSE MODELS ALSO MOVE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...MUCH LIKE THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR ACROSS FRANKLIN HAS INCREASED FROM THE WEST AGAIN DUE TO\r\nTHE OUTFLOW FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG\r\nYUCATAN DISTURBANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES FRANKLIN IS\r\nGETTING PINCHED FROM THE EAST BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ONLY EXPECTED TO\r\nSLOWLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND\r\nTHIS IS REFLECTED IN THE SLOWER THAN NORMAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nFORECASTS AS PER THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL BRINGS\r\nFRANKLIN UP TO 89 IN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE...\r\nESPECIALLY WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nFORECAST TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 27.8N  76.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 28.9N  76.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  75.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  73.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.5N  72.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 32.8N  67.6W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 34.0N  63.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-07-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED NEAR 00Z AND 02Z A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB... DOWN ABOUT 4 MB COMPARED TO\r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53\r\nKT IN A BURST OF CONVECTION JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THESE\r\nDATA... ALONG WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nSUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT. THE OVERALL\r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. THE LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE YUCATAN DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nPRODUCE WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS FLORIDA THAT ARE IMPOSING SHEAR ON\r\nFRANKLIN... RESULTING ESSENTIALLY IN HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM...\r\nWITH MOST OF THE WINDS AND CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 45 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN A BAND FARTHER\r\nOUT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT ABOUT 50-75 NMI FROM THE CENTER.\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTHEAST ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nTHE RECON FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY AND\r\nIS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH... WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 010/7. FRANKLIN IS MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A\r\nMIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES... WHICH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO SHARPEN WHILE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. LITTLE DOUBT REMAINS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TURN FRANKLIN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST... BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING HOW\r\nFAST FRANKLIN WILL MOVE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NWS MODELS...\r\nGFS AND GFDL... ARE BY FAR THE FASTEST. THE GFS SOLUTION APPEARS\r\nTOO FAST EVEN INITIALLY SINCE IT SHOWS NEARLY AN IMMEDIATE\r\nDECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID LEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WHICH DOES NOT\r\nSEEM TO YET BE OCCURRING. THE UKMET AND THE NAVY MODELS... NOGAPS\r\nAND GFDN... ARE MUCH SLOWER. IN FACT... THE 18Z NOGAPS IS QUITE A\r\nBIT SLOWER THAN THE 12Z RUN. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL REMAIN SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR MIGHT ABATE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...\r\nBUT NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS FRANKIN MOVES\r\nFARTHER NORTH AND THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH COMES OFF THE EAST COAST.\r\nGIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION... THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT RATE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED. IN FACT...\r\nESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE... FRANKLIN COULD VERY WELL BECOME\r\nSHEARED APART IN 2-3 DAYS. ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WILL REACH SUB-27C SSTS ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE... SO\r\nA WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED LATE IN THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN BETWEEN\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 28.4N  76.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 29.5N  75.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 30.7N  74.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  72.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 32.2N  69.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 33.5N  65.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 35.5N  60.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 38.0N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-07-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.  REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WHILE THE PRESSURE CONTINUED A SLOW\r\nBUT STEADY FALL...TO 1001 MB AT 05Z.  THE PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH SUPPORTS A SOLID\r\n45 KT AS THE SURFACE ESTIMATE.     \r\n\r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS TURNED TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 030/7. THE\r\nSYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS COMPLICATED...RESULTING IN\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\nA MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS\r\nIS ABOUT TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...THIS IS EXPECTED TO FORCE FRANKLIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING CONSIDERABLE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nWITH IT...AND BY 36-48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER\r\nAN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN\r\nFACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALREADY IS SHOWING A RESTRICTION OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF FRANKLIN. THE FUTURE TRACK OF\r\nFRANKLIN IS VERY MUCH TIED TO HOW IT RESPONDS TO THIS IMPENDING\r\nSHEAR...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. THE GFS\r\nDECOUPLES THE CYCLONE'S LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND RACES A\r\nWEAK SYSTEM EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS\r\nAND UKMET MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER...MORE VERTICALLY CONNECTED\r\nSYSTEM THAT ALSO MOVES TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST BUT MUCH MORE SLOWLY.\r\nTHE GFDL HAS A RATHER SURPRISING SOLUTION IN THAT IT IS BOTH\r\nRELATIVELY FAST WITH THE EASTWARD MOTION AND YET ALSO FORECASTS\r\nFRANKLIN TO ATTAIN AND THEN MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR ALMOST\r\n72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nSO WHAT TO DO WITH THIS RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES? SMALL SYSTEMS ARE\r\nFREQUENTLY NOT THAT RESISTENT TO SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nTHEREFORE CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS OR UKMET GUIDANCE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO FAST...SO PERHAPS NONE OF THE\r\nINDIVIDUAL DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS PARTICULAR\r\nFORECAST.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A PRIMARILY A BLEND OF\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE SHALLOW BAM...THE GUNA\r\nCONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS ONLY COINCIDENTALLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFDL.  THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT\r\nSOUTHWARD...AND DOES SHOW A CLOSE APPROACH TO BERMUDA IN 72 HOURS. \r\nIT IS WORTH NOTING HOWEVER...THAT SOME OF THE LARGEST TRACK ERRORS\r\nOCCUR IN HIGH-SHEAR SCENARIOS SUCH AS THIS ONE. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS WELL EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CIRCULAR AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WAS GETTING READY TO STRENGTHEN. CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nSHORT-TERM PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE GOOD. HOWEVER...THE\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG RUN APPEARS LIMITED...WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN SSTS SEEMINGLY IN THE\r\nCYCLONE'S FUTURE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL\r\nBE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 29.1N  75.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  74.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 30.8N  73.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 31.4N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 31.8N  69.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 32.5N  65.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  60.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 39.0N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-07-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005\r\n \r\nRECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATE FRANKLIN\r\nHAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED...POSSIBLY\r\nEVEN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A DROPSONDE REPORT AT 1337Z MEASURED\r\nSURFACE WINDS OF 59 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT WHERE THE FLIGHT\r\nCREW HAS BEEN ESTIMATING 60-65 KT WINDS...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS STILL ABOVE 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE\r\nHIGHER SINCE FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MUCH HIGHER THAN\r\nAVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/08...BASED ON THE PAST 9 HOURS OF\r\nRECON FIXES. THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST\r\nPORTION OF THE COLD CDO CLOUD SHIELD AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN WHAT MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THE STRONG SHORTWAVE NOW\r\nAPPROACHING THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS MOST OF ITS ENERGY FROM NORTH\r\nCAROLINA NORTHWARD...WITH ONLY 5-10 WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL\r\nFLOW INDICATED SOUTH OF THE CAROLINAS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\n...EXCLUDING THE MUCH FASTER GFS AND GFDL MODELS...NOW SLOWS DOWN\r\nFRANKLIN THROUGH 72 HOURS AND EITHER DISSIPATED THE CYCLONE OR\r\nWAITS FOR ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE AND\r\nACCELERATE IT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. JUST ONE PROBLEM...ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS...TO SOME DEGREE...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY\r\nBACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. GIVEN THAT FRANKLIN IS\r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nFROM 06Z...AND THAT ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW\r\nTO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH...OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNS\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WIND FIELD. AS SUCH...SMALL CHANGES IN THE\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION CAN RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY. GIVEN THE TENACITY OF THIS CYCLONE OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nDAYS THAT HAS DEFIED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY GO ON AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITH A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE ABOVE 995 MB IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...INCRESING NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW SHOULD INDUCE SOME SLOW WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 29.4N  75.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  73.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.7N  72.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 31.1N  70.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N  68.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 32.3N  66.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 33.0N  63.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 35.0N  59.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST\r\nRECON REPORT AROUND 17Z. AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT WAS\r\nREPORTED ABOUT 50 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER AT 1543Z...AND SUBSEQUENT\r\nDROPSONDE WIND PROFLIES ELSEWHERE SUGGEST THAT THE STANDARD 80\r\nPERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR MAY BE TOO HIGH AND THAT USING 100 PERCENT\r\nMAY BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE. GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD NOT\r\nFALLEN BELOW 1000 MB ALL DAY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nMAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST BASED ON THE RECON WIND AND DROPSONDE DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSTEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES\r\nSOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE\r\nMODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN AND LEAVE AT LEAST\r\nA WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND BY 36-48 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS...\r\nWHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. IF FRANKLIN\r\nREMAINS INTACT AT 72 HOURS...THEN THE SOUTHWARD MOTION IS QUITE\r\nPOSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL\r\nGRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nAND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN COULD STILL BECOME A 65-KT HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS BEFORE INCREASING NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR STARTS TO\r\nAFFECT THE CYCLONE. EVEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES TURN SOUTHWARD...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS WHEN THE\r\n200 MB FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A SMALL ANTICYCLONE MOVES\r\nACROSS THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 29.9N  74.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.4N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 30.8N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.2N  69.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.4N  68.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 32.1N  65.3W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  62.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 35.0N  59.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF\r\nFRANKLIN ARE BECOMING DETACHED. THERE IS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\n...RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL...MARKING A WELL DEFINED MIDDLE LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD LINES SHOW A SURFACE CENTER\r\nDISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS CENTER LOCATION IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST RECON FIX. THIS DECOUPLING HAS BEEN THE SCENARIO\r\nFORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY BY THE GFS... DURING THE PAST\r\nDAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE HAS NOT IMPROVED AND IN FACT...IT\r\nLOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nIS ABOUT 1003 MB. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS. THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FRANKLIN IS BRINGING STRONG\r\nSHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE\r\nUPPER-TROUGH WILL BYPASS FRANKLIN QUICKLY...LEAVING WEAKER SHEAR\r\nAND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. FRANKLIN COULD ACCELERATE A LITTLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW INCREASES AHEAD\r\nOF THE TROUGH. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AND FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AT\r\nLONGER RANGES...ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FRANKLIN AND THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AGAIN. ALL THESE\r\nSMALL CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM\r\nTHE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 30.3N  72.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.9N  71.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.5N  69.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  68.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  67.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 33.5N  64.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 35.0N  61.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 38.5N  56.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE REPORTS UP UNTIL 06Z INDICATED THAT FRANKLIN WAS...AT\r\nLEAST TO THAT POINT...HOLDING ITS OWN AGAINST NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WERE 58\r\nKT...AND A DROPSONDE AT 0516Z REPORTED 49 KT AT THE SURFACE IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT WAS BACK DOWN TO 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HOWEVER...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MOSTLY EXPOSED ON THE\r\nNORTHWEST EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION...WITH A RAGGED\r\nBAND LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nNEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY FIND A WEAKER\r\nSYSTEM. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN UNSTEADY BUT A SMOOTHED ESTIMATE IS 070/8. \r\nTHERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK AS\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER WIDELY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.  THE UKMET\r\nAND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A STRONG CYCLONE AND TAKE IT SLOWLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ON THE NORTHWEST OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nTHE OTHER EXTREME IS OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES WITH A\r\nRAPID EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A WEAK AND DECOUPLED\r\nSYSTEM.  I LIKE THE IDEA OF A WEAK AND SHALLOW VORTEX...ESPECIALLY\r\nGIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE APPROACH OF DRY UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nFLOW...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE GFS SEEMS WAY\r\nTOO FAST AND I HAVE BASED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MORE ON THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AS WELL AS CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE VERY HOSTILE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT\r\n24-48 HOURS...AND IF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AT ALL CORRECT...\r\nFRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS BY LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL DECLINE IS FORECAST...BUT THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 30.5N  72.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 30.9N  70.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 31.3N  69.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 31.6N  67.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 32.0N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 34.0N  63.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 36.0N  60.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 39.0N  54.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nGETTING THE BEST OF FRANKLIN.  THERE IS AN EXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER\r\nWITH A DISORGANIZED BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS\r\nSITE INDICATE SIGNIFICANT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING INTO\r\nINCREASING SHEAR.  WATER VAPOR LOOPS ALSO SHOW A BAND OF VERY DRY\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO FRANKLIN.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT FOLLOWING DVORAK RULES BUT THIS\r\nIS PROBABLY GENEROUS.  GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE FACTORS IN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nFRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS\r\nDETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD\r\nDISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 070/8.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS GRADUALLY\r\nLIFTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL STORM...SO\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW WIDELY VARYING FORECASTS OF FORWARD SPEED...SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF VARIOUS POSSIBLE\r\nSCENARIOS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 30.9N  71.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 31.1N  70.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N  68.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 32.0N  67.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 32.5N  66.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 34.0N  64.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 39.0N  57.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n \r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE STORM...AND THE\r\nLOW-CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED...OR NEAR THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF A RAGGED\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW-CLOUD LINES APPEAR\r\nTO HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS WELL DEFINED.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 45 KT FOLLOWING LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI.  \r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STRONG SHEAR WILL\r\nPERSIST...SO CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED\r\nTO BE DISSIPATING OVER COLDER WATERS BY 120 HOURS...AND IF THE\r\nSHEAR CAUSES EVEN MORE VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE SYSTEM...IT COULD\r\nDISSIPATE SOONER THAN THAT.  HOWEVER...THESE SHEARED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO BE TENACIOUS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/8.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING AWAY FROM FRANKLIN WITH A DAY OR SO.  THIS\r\nWILL WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO KEEP FRANKLIN FROM BEING BLOCKED BY A RIDGE THAT\r\nIS PREDICTED TO BUILD NEAR BERMUDA IN SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 31.4N  70.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 31.9N  69.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 32.5N  67.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 33.3N  66.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 33.9N  65.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 35.5N  63.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 38.0N  60.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 41.0N  55.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN IS BEING AFFECTED BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR THIS EVENING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY\r\nEXPOSED...AND THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ARE GENERALLY\r\nGETTING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED\r\nON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nINTERESTING CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED IN THE MOTION THIS EVENING. \r\nFRANKLIN STOPPED MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST AFTER 18Z...AND FOR\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  THIS MOTION...\r\nWHICH WAS POORLY FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...IS LIKELY DUE\r\nTO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FRANKLIN IN THE WAKE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS RIDGE TO START WEAKENING IN 12 HR OR SO IN FRONT OF\r\nTHE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO\r\nRESUME THE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.  THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY BE UNSTEADY...AS THE NEW TROUGH\r\nWILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WHISK FRANKLIN AWAY AND A FINAL\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR A THIRD TROUGH IN\r\n3-4 DAYS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER AND SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nSHALLOW-STEERING BAMS CALLS FOR FRANKLIN TO DO A LOOP BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE U. S. FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE...AND IF THE\r\nGFS AND THE CANADIAN ARE CORRECT IT WILL NOT BE GETTING FAVORABLE\r\nFOR AT LEAST 48-72 HR.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST A LESS\r\nHOSTILE...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN IDEAL...UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AFTER\r\n48 HR...WHICH COULD ALLOW FRANKLIN TO RE-INTENSIFY IF THOSE MODELS\r\nARE CORRECT.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH\r\n120 HR...WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION AFTER\r\n24-36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SHIPS\r\nSCENARIO...BUT MAINTAIN A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THE SHIPS FORECAST\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE STALLING DELAYS THE NEED FOR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OF WARNING\r\nFOR BERMUDA.  HOWEVER...THEY MAY BE REQUIRED ON MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 30.9N  71.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 30.8N  71.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 31.0N  70.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 31.7N  68.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 32.5N  67.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 34.0N  65.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 36.5N  61.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 40.0N  55.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF FRANKLIN HAS BEEN EXPOSED FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS\r\nNOW...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ONLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nNO CLOSER THAN ABOUT 75 NMI FROM THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR\r\n10Z YESTERDAY HAD SOME 40 KT VECTORS...AND IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THEN.  SHIP WCOB RECENTLY REPORTED 29 KT\r\nJUST OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...SO FRANKLIN IS MOST LIKELY STILL A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES.\r\n\r\nAFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWARD EARLIER IN THE EVENING...FRANKLIN HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING MOSTLY EASTWARD FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY...070/4...IS A SMOOTHED VALUE OVER THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS.  THE MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ACTUALLY\r\nCOME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT ON WHAT LIES AHEAD.  FRANKLIN HAS MISSED\r\nTHE ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A SECOND\r\nTROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR\r\nSO...BUT THIS TOO PROBABLY WON'T PICK UP THE CYCLONE.  A THIRD\r\nTROUGH IS LIKELY TO DO THE TRICK IN 72-96 HOURS...AND MOST GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS FRANKLIN BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THIS TROUGH BEFORE THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A CONTINUED ERRATIC TRACK IS TO BE\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION\r\nSHOULD BE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BLENDS THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  EVEN\r\nWITH THIS ADJUSTMENT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THIS APPEARS TO LESSEN THE IMMEDIATE THREAT\r\nTO BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE\r\nFOR THE WEAKENING TREND...AND I DON'T SEE ANYTHING IN THE WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY TO MAKE ME THINK THIS WILL CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL SEEM TO\r\nWANT TO LESSEN THE SHEAR OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR FRANKLIN...AND IF\r\nTHIS HAPPENS...THE WATER UNDERNEATH WOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW\r\nSOME REDEVELOPMENT.  EVEN SO...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOW CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES\r\nTHAT FRANKLIN WILL EITHER BE TOO DISRUPTED BY THEN TO TAKE\r\nADVANTAGE OF THE LOWER SHEAR OR IT WILL NOT BE IN THE RIGHT PLACE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 30.8N  70.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 30.9N  69.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 31.2N  69.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 31.6N  68.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 32.2N  68.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 34.0N  66.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 37.5N  63.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005\r\n\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH\r\nESTIMATES FROM SATELLITE ANALYSES.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE MORE\r\nDEFINITIVE INTENSITY INFORMATION.  LATE BREAKING NEWS SINCE THE\r\nADVISORY WAS TRANSMITTED...THE AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nTHAN WE WERE ESTIMATING.\r\n\r\nNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON FRANKLIN PERSISTS...AS VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER OF THE STORM NEAR THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS A SUBSTANTIAL CIRCULATION THAT WILL BE SLOW TO WEAKEN. \r\nINDEED...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW COULD\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS FRANKLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE\r\nLONGER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN\r\nWHETHER FRANKLIN WILL ACTUALLY MAKE A COMEBACK.  NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD...ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES ANYWHERE NEAR OUR\r\nFORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE PASSING OVER SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND DISSIPATING.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...AND THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 070/4.  STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN\r\nWEAK WITH THE MAIN BELT OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE STORM.  IN SEVERAL DAYS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD IN THE VICINITY OF 60W...WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY\r\nDRIVE FRANKLIN TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES.  IN THE MEANTIME...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WITH A\r\nGRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.  ALL OF THIS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF BERMUDA...MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF THE CENTER PASSING\r\nOVER THAT ISLAND.  HOWEVER INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR FRANKLIN'S PROGRESS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 31.1N  69.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 31.3N  69.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 31.7N  68.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 32.2N  68.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 32.9N  67.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 35.0N  65.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 39.0N  62.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-07-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATED FRANKLIN EARLIER TODAY AND\r\nFOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nTHOUGHT AND...BASED ON DROPSONDE-DERIVED WIND PROFILES...MAXIMUM\r\nSURFACE WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT.  SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED MARKEDLY WITH AN INCREASING\r\nSEPARATION OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER FROM AN AREA OF DIMINISHING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH THE STORM WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER AROUND 12Z TODAY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nAROUND 35 KT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP NEARER\r\nTO THE CENTER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT VERY LIKELY AND FRANKLIN SHOULD BE\r\nDISSIPATING DUE TO COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ERRATICALLY...TAKING ONE STEP BACKWARDS\r\nFOR EVERY FEW STEPS FORWARD.  LATELY THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING\r\nIN MORE OR LESS THE SAME LOCATION...SO STATIONARY IS THE BEST BET\r\nFOR INITIAL MOTION.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DRIFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A\r\nRIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 60W IN 2-3 DAYS...SO A MORE DETERMINED\r\nMOTION...TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE BY THAT\r\nTIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODEL SUITE.  ALTHOUGH THIS LESSENS THE POTENTIAL THREAT FOR\r\nBERMUDA...INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF FRANKLIN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 30.7N  69.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 31.2N  69.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 31.6N  69.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 32.3N  68.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  68.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 36.0N  67.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 40.0N  63.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-07-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2005\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN HAS UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL CHANGE THIS EVENING.  A\r\nNEW VORTICITY CENTER APPEARED FROM UNDER THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE\r\nMAIN CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IT AND THE MAIN CENTER ARE ROTATING\r\nAROUND EACH OTHER.  THE CENTER TRACKED EARLIER IS CURRENTLY THE\r\nMOST INVOLVED WITH CONVECTION...SO THAT CENTER POSITION IS USED IN\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SECONDARY VORTICITY\r\nCENTER SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OVERALL SYSTEM MAY REFORM\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OR THAT A MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER MAY\r\nBECOME MORE APPROPRIATE FOR TRACKING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ERRATIC AND UNCERTAIN 090/7.  ON THE LARGE\r\nSCALE...THE STEERING IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  A MID-LATITUDE\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE PASSING NORTH OF\r\nFRANKLIN.  OVER THE NEXT 48 HR...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE EAST OF THE\r\nSTORM IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AND FALL TO THE WEST IN ADVANCE OF\r\nTHE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH.  THIS SUGGESTS FRANKLIN SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE BAM\r\nMODELS...IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...\r\nSUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE CYCLOIDAL MOTION OF THE CENTER\r\nINSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...AS WELL AS POSSIBLE\r\nRE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER DUE TO MERGER WITH THE SECONDARY\r\nVORTICITY CENTER OR TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  THUS...THE ERRATIC\r\nMOTION SEEN FOR THE LAST 24-30 HR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE...STARTING\r\nWITH THE CENTER TAKING A NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS\r\nAS THE SECONDARY CENTER MOVES TO ITS WEST.\r\n\r\nA CONVECTIVE BURST IS NEAR THE PRIMARY CENTER RIGHT NOW...AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS FORMED NEAR\r\nFRANKLIN.  THIS MAY PROVIDE TEMPORARY PROTECTION FROM THE SHEAR. \r\nHOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO GET PUSHED AWAY\r\nFROM THE STORM BY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH IS\r\nCURRENTLY SEEN APPROACHING FRANKLIN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE\r\nGFS FORECASTS A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHR...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND A NEW UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS\r\nFORMING NEAR THE STORM.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A LESS HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT...BUT EVEN THEY TAKE 48 HR OR MORE TO SHOW CONDITIONS\r\nTHAT MIGHT ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO CALL FOR GRADUAL DECAY.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS COULD CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN HAS SHIFTED FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 30.7N  68.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 31.3N  67.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 32.0N  67.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 33.0N  67.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 34.0N  67.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 36.5N  65.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 40.5N  60.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-07-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20... CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED TO DENOTE ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE IN TABLE...\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THAT HAD YESTERDAY BEEN EXPOSED HAS REMAINED\r\nINVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. DESPITE WHAT WOULD\r\nOTHERWISE REFLECT INCREASED ORGANIZATION... FRANKLIN HAS NOT TAKEN\r\nADVANTAGE OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD... AND CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING. INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND A FAIRLY DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE TAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT... AS\r\nSUPPORTED BY 06Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT\r\nCONVECTION WILL NEED TO REDEVELOP SOON IF THAT INTENSITY IS TO BE\r\nMAINTAINED FOR MUCH LONGER. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY... AND FRANKLIN MAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AS\r\nLONG AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED BY WELL TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFRANKLIN...LEAVING THE TROPICAL STORM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING. THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAVE BOTH OCCURRED... PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE\r\nSOONER THAN EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n020/4. THIS SLOW GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH\r\nUNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACH\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT\r\nTHIS FEATURE WILL ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE WEST COMPARED TO EARLIER. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE. ON THIS TRACK FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 31.3N  68.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 31.8N  67.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 32.7N  67.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 34.1N  67.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 36.2N  67.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 40.0N  63.0W    25 KT...BECOMING ASBORBED\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-07-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN HAS BECOME EXPOSED AGAIN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF AN AREA OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE\r\nOF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SEVERAL 30 KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS NOTED IN A 1042Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE QUIKSCAT\r\nSATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOPS IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE 35-KT INTENSITY MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE GENEROUS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN 060/04...BUT THE TREND\r\nFOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD BE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nSO AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/05 HAS BEEN ASSIGNED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nFRANKLIN MAY MOVE ERRATICALLY...INCLUDING SEVERAL WOBBLES...OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD. AFTER THAT...THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE UPPER-MIDWESTERN U.S.  BY 48 HOURS...THE\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nINDUCE A FASTER MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...UNTIL\r\nFRANKLIN BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONATL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK... MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION\r\n...AND IS A ALSO LITTLE EAST OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND FRANKLIN COULD BECOME A DEPRESSION. BY\r\n36-48 HOURS...THOUGH...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BRIEFLY\r\nWEAKEN...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION TO\r\nOCCUR BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBS THE CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 32.0N  67.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 32.8N  67.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 33.8N  67.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 35.2N  67.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 37.1N  66.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 40.0N  63.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-07-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005\r\n \r\nA BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C TO -80-C...HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE STILL EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. GIVEN THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS HAD A RECON HISTORY OF STRONGER\r\nTHAN AVERAGE WINDS AT HIGHER LEVELS...I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP FRANKLIN\r\nAS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nAN 18Z REPORT OF 31 KT FROM SHIP PIBO LOCATED ABOUT 220 NMI\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR ABOUT 70 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nBERMUDA...AND BY A TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF 35 KT. OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED NORTHWEST-NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS BEEN A RATHER WOBBLY 020/04.\r\nFRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY COMPLETING A 30 NMI WIDE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE\r\nLOOP...BUT THE NET OVERALL MOTION HAS BEEN NORTHEASTWARD. FRANKLIN\r\nMAY WOBBLE LIKE A CHILD'S TOP TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME BETTER\r\nDEFINED. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH HAS BEEN IMPEDING ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION...AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER\r\n18-24 HOURS...SO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING\r\nTHAT TIME. BY 30-48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH MAY\r\nALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 60 HOURS...FRANKLIN WILL ALSO BE\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING\r\nUNLESS THE CYCLONE GETS ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FIRST. THIS\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FT SEA HEIGHT RADIUS WAS INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nBASED ON THE 19-FT SEA HEIGHT REPORT FROM SHIP PIBO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 32.3N  68.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 33.4N  67.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 34.6N  67.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 36.2N  67.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 37.9N  66.2W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 40.5N  62.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-07-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005\r\n \r\nA CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS OF -70C TO -75C PERSISTS NEAR AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN.  SHEAR ANALYSES FROM\r\nCIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HR...AND THIS IS LIKELY\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA...WHILE\r\nA RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWS RAIN-CONTAMINATED 40 KT VECTORS\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION HAS COVERED THE CENTER...SO THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE 24 HR MOTION IS 005/4. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS PACKAGE WILL USE A 315/2 DRIFT THAT HAS OCCURRED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF FRANKLIN.  AS THIS FEATURE MOVES\r\nEASTWARD...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE EAST OF BERMUDA AS THEY FALL OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN U. S. EAST OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD\r\nFRONT...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THESE CHANGES SHOULD COME ABOUT IN\r\n12-24 HR...AND THAT FRANKLIN SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE. \r\nTHE CYCLONE THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 24-36 HR\r\nAND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE REST OF ITS LIFE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE NEW\r\nTRACK IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUDIANCE...AND\r\nSLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE BEING TOO FAST.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME\r\nWEST OF NORTH MOTION IN THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT DECREASE IN SHEAR IS OCCURRING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FORMS NEAR FRANKLIN...A PATTERN THAT OVERALL IS\r\nNOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH OF FRANKLIN IN ABOUT 12-24\r\nHR... WHICH WOULD OPEN ABOUT A 24 HR WINDOW FOR THE STORM TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 40 KT...WHICH IS ABOUT\r\nTHE MOST THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 32.4N  68.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 33.1N  68.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 34.4N  68.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 36.0N  67.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 38.0N  66.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 41.5N  61.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-07-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF FRANKLIN HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED... TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF A LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION THAT IS STILL FAIRLY\r\nDEEP... WITH TOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -70 DEGREES CELSIUS.  WHILE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS SHEARED... THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO\r\nTHE CONVECTION SUCH THAT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB REMAIN 35 KT... SO FRANKLIN HANGS ON AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM\r\nON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY TOWARD THE NORTH AT\r\nABOUT 6 KT.  THIS COULD BE THE END OF THE ERRATIC MOTION AND THE\r\nSTART OF THE LONG-AWAITED ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY\r\nTHE NORTHEAST... AHEAD OF THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT COLD\r\nFRONT NOW APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  IT WILL\r\nPROBABLY TAKE FRANKLIN ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS... WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS\r\nTO ITS EAST AND THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST... TO BEGIN\r\nMOVING MUCH FASTER AND MORE NORTHEASTWARD THAN IT IS CURRENTLY. \r\nTHE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nALTHOUGH THEY CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON FORWARD SPEED LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST.  DUE TO THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED INITIAL MOTION... THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLOWER THAN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS... WITH WHICH I AM RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS TO SEND\r\nFRANKLIN OFF TO THE RACES.\r\n\r\nIT DOES NOT SEEM THAT THE ENVIRONMENT... IN TERMS OF VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR... WILL BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEFORE FRANKLIN\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEREFORE KEPT\r\nLEVEL AT 35 KT... WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE... UNTIL FRANKLIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND EVENTUALLY\r\nBECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT\r\nTHREE TO FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 33.1N  68.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 34.1N  68.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 35.7N  68.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 37.6N  66.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 39.7N  64.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 43.5N  56.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-07-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LARGE\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE COOLED TO -80C AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED CLOSER TO\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 1017Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL\r\nUNFLAGGED 35-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...\r\nINCLUDING A FEW 40-KT UNFLAGGED VECTORS. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT AND FOR MODIFYING THE\r\n34-KT WIND RADII.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN CONTINUES TO MAKE SMALL WOBBLES ABOUT A MEAN MOTION TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/05. AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND\r\nMID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD...THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO ACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTH AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW\r\nBECOMES ESTABLISHED...FRANKLIN MAY CONTINUE TO MAKE SMALL WOBBLES\r\nIN THE TRACK...BUT GENERALLY IN A NORTHWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS...BUT ONLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...AND IS THEN BASICALLY BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nSINCE THE UKMET TRACKER ALGORITHM ERRONEOUSLY LOCKED ONTO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN REDEVELOPING AND PROPAGATING UP\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST 3-4 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR SHIFTING FROM\r\nTHE NORTH TO THE EAST. THE SHIPS MODEL AND SOME OF THE OTHER GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR VECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY\r\nSWING AROUND FROM EAST TO SOUTH AND FINALLY SOUTHWEST BY 36 HOURS\r\n...WITH SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 5 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER OR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAND BRING ABOUT AT LEAST SOME MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION UNTIL\r\nFRANKLIN REACHES MUCH COLDER SSTS IN 42-48 HOURS AND WEAKENS AGAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 33.4N  69.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 34.5N  69.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 36.4N  67.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 38.4N  65.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 40.4N  62.8W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 44.5N  55.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-07-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C...HAVE DEVELOPED UP THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF AND VERY NEAR THE NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AT 18Z.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN\r\nRUNNING CLOSE TO T3.3/51 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLOWLY\r\nIMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHROUGH 18Z...FRANKLIN HAD BEEN MOVING AT 340/05...BUT OVER THE LAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE 360/06...AND THAT IS WHAT\r\nWAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. FRANKLIN SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY\r\n24 HOURS AS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM REACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATE FRANKLIN TO THE NORTHEAST OVER COLDER WATER WHERE THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS NOW THAT THE UKMET\r\nHAS COME BACK INTO THE FOLD. \r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR HAS BEEN GRADUALLY VEERING FROM\r\nNORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY...AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT VEERING OF THE SHEAR VECTOR WILL CONTINUE FOR\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. THIS PATTERN...COUPLED WITH DECREASING WIND\r\nSHEAR VALUES AS LOW AS 5 KT...SHOULD RESULT INC CONVECTION\r\nGRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION...AND PERHAPS EVEN ALLOW\r\nFRANKLIN TO BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH COLDER SSTS BY 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND MUCH HIGHER...MORE THAN 25 KT...THAN THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 33.9N  69.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 35.2N  68.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 37.0N  67.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 38.8N  64.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 40.9N  61.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 45.0N  53.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-07-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER\r\nTHAN -70C...A 0055Z SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATES THAT NO WRAPPING OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  INDEED...THE THE\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS AGAIN EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH UNDER THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  WHILE THE\r\nREASON FOR THIS IS NOT CLEAR...IT SUGGESTS THAT FRANKLIN IS NO\r\nSTRONGER THAN IT WAS 6 HR AGO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5...WITH THE\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING FRANKLING MIGHT BE MOVING A LITTLE\r\nFASTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  FRANKLIN IS\r\nBETWEEN A BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nAND A MID/YUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nFRANKLIN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THEREAFTER.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER FRANKLIN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nBECOMES GENERALLY SOUTHERLY OVER THE STORM.  THIS ALLOWS A WINDOW\r\nOF OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH INCREASES THE SHEAR...AND THE STORM MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM.  BOTH OF THESE SHOULD OCCUR IN 24-36 HR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 55 KT IN 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY\r\nWEAKENING AS FRANKLIN MERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT AND BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT 55 KT IS HIGHER THAN EITHER\r\nTHE SHIPS OR THE GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.  AFTER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...FRANKLIN WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN 72-96\r\nHR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 34.3N  69.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 35.5N  69.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 37.3N  67.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 39.3N  64.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 41.8N  60.3W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 46.0N  51.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-07-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005\r\n\r\nA DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nLOCATION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED 45 KT... BUT SINCE THEN THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY... SO FRANKLIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.  A SHORT\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY... ABOUT 24 HOURS... EXISTS FOR FRANKLIN TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY.  WEAKENING WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER UNTIL\r\nFRANKLIN BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN\r\nABOUT 3-4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS MOSTLY OBSCURED BY THE CONVECTION AND\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW... BUT BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM\r\nSSMI AND AMSU... THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A\r\nBIT FASTER AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 010/8.  THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY EMERGING OFF THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST TODAY AND A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THE HEADING BUT...\r\nAS USUAL IN CASES OF RECURVATURE AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...\r\nPROVIDE WIDELY VARYING SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nALTHOUGH JUST A LITTLE SLOWER TO BLEND WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 35.5N  69.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 36.5N  68.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 38.0N  66.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 40.1N  63.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 42.4N  59.3W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 46.5N  49.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-07-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU JUL 28 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER BURST OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. A 28/0953Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT FRANKLIN MAY HAVE REACHED NEAR 50 KT INTENSITY\r\nBETWEEN 06-09Z. THAT INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM NESDIS CIRA OF 47 KT AND 998 MB AT 0807Z...\r\nAND A 12Z TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER\r\n...SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECEASING AND BECOME LESS\r\nORGANIZED...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/09. IT APPEARS THAT FRANKLIN\r\nIS FINALLY STARTING TO MAKE THE LONG AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nTHIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE\r\nGETS CAUGHT UP IN THE INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK AFTER THAT. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN THE\r\nOVERALL BEST PERFORMING MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE PROTRUDING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nFRANKLIN...WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY INCREASED THE SHEAR NOW THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. I WOULD SUSPECT THAT\r\nTHIS SHEAR PATTERN AND CURRENT DISRUPTION OF THE CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ONCE FRANKLIN MAKES THE TURN AND\r\nBEGINS TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO.\r\nRECENT SHIP OBS ALSO REVEAL THAT THE 26C SST ISOTHERM ACTUALLY\r\nEXTENDS UP TO 40N LATITUDE...ABOUT 2 DEGREES NORTH OF WHAT THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING. AS SUCH...THERE REMAINS ABOUT\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FRANKLIN TO STRENGTHEN\r\nWHILE THE VERTICAL REMAINS LOW. AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE\r\nOVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nIF FRANKLIN MAKES A SLOWER TURN TO THE NORTHEAST THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFOREAST...THEN TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS COULD POSSIBLY BRUSH\r\nEXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN 60-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 36.2N  69.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 37.5N  67.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 39.3N  64.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 41.1N  61.6W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 43.0N  57.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 47.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-07-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A BAND OF MODERATE\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND AN EARLIER AMSU CIMSS PRESSURE ESTIMATE CAME IN\r\nAT 998 MB..OR 48 KT. GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF\r\nFRANKLIN AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED POSSIBLY ADDING ANOTHER 5 KT\r\nTO THE TOTAL WIND FIELD ON THE EAST SIDE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15...AS FRANKLIN HAS COME UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING MID-LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF\r\nMOTION...BUT THERE IS A RANGE OF FORWARD SPEEDS WITH THE CANADIAN\r\n...GFS AND GFDL MODELS BEING THE FASTEST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDN MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS GIVEN THEIR BETTER OVERALL\r\nPERFORMANCE THUS FAR...AND THE FACT THAT FRANKLIN WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER 13-17C SST WATER BY 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND REMAIN BEHIND THE FASTER MOVING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT FRANKLIN IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...THE VERTICAL SHEAR ON\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR\r\nSO...WHICH IS ALSO ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE REACHES MUCH\r\nCOLDER WATER. THEREFORE...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\n...WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED NOW BY THE GFDL MODEL. BY 24 HOURS...\r\nTHOUGH...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCH COLDER WATER SHOULD\r\nINDUCE RAPID WEAKENING...ALONG WITH A TRANSITION TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY 48 HOURS FRANKLIN COULD\r\nALREADY BE ASORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 37.6N  67.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 39.3N  65.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 41.3N  62.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 43.2N  57.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 45.3N  53.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-07-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2005\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -60C\r\nNEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...TWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES\r\nINDICATE THE CONVECTION IS NOT WELL-WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER...\r\nCERTAINLY NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE INITIAL WINDS REMAIN 50 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/16.  FRANKLIN IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nWILL CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nLIFE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN STILL HAS ABOUT 6-12 HR IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO\r\nLOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HR...THEN BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM IS 48-60 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR\r\nOR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 38.9N  66.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 40.8N  63.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 42.8N  59.3W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  54.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 47.3N  49.3W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-07-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED DURING THE NIGHT NEAR THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER... ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE STEADILY WARMING. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45 TO 55 KT... SO THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  FRANKLIN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/19. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD... WITH CONTINUED\r\nACCELERATION ON ROUGHLY THE PRESENT HEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS JUST ABOUT OVER... AS FRANKLIN IS\r\nPASSING NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM... SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  WHILE FRANKLIN CURRENTLY RETAINS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE... EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS... WITH THE CIRCULATION BEING ABSORBED INTO A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR\r\nOR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 40.3N  63.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 42.0N  60.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 44.2N  56.2W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 46.7N  50.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-07-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005\r\n \r\nTENACIOUS FRANKLIN STILL HAS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER AND THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45\r\nKNOTS AND FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 19 KNOTS...\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS...AND WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nTHEREAFTER.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 41.4N  61.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 43.0N  58.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 45.5N  53.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-07-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE REMAINING SMALL\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FRANKLIN IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ONE LATER TONIGHT.\r\nTHIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION ANALYSIS\r\nPROVIDED BY FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY. \r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 22 KNOTS AND SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED\r\nBY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN DAY OR SO.  \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN. ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 42.8N  58.9W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 44.5N  55.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 47.0N  49.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-07-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A\r\nNOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LARGE DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN. DURING\r\nTHE PAST HALF-HOUR...NOAA BUOY 42055 REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF\r\n23 KT ABOUT 150 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE A DROPSONDE\r\nINSTRUMENT JUST NORTH OF MERIDA REPORTED A SURFACE WIND NEAR 30 KT.\r\nWHILE THIS LATTER REPORT WAS WITHIN THE OUTFLOW OF A CLUSTER OF\r\nLAND-BASED THUNDERSTORMS...OTHER NEARBY DROPSONDE REPORTS INDICATE\r\nWINDS OF 30-35 KT AT 925-850 MB. THIS WIND DATA SUPPORTS AT LEAST\r\n25 KT AS AN INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/05. THE INNER-CORE\r\nWIND FIELD AND CIRCULATION ARE RATHER BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...SO\r\nPINPOINTING AN EXACT CENTER IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. HOWEVER...12Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE LARGE-SCALE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nSITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING\r\nEAST-WEST FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE CAROLINAS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD\r\nMOTION...IGNORING THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES THAT MAY OCCUR AS\r\nCONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nLOW...AND SSTS ARE QUITE WARM...AROUND 29-30C. THIS WOULD NORMALLY\r\nFAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL ONLY HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS OVER WATER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND.\r\nTHEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TURNS OUT TO BE TOO LOW AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER THAN FORECAST...THEN A STRONGER TROPICAL STORM\r\nCOULD MAKE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 19.4N  93.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.9N  94.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.4N  96.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.1N  97.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.9N  98.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.5N 101.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-07-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...CURRENTLY IN A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE GENESIS MISSION IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH WIND GUSTS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL DEFINED\r\nINNER CORE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS AND WITH\r\nLOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS\r\nFORECAST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 KNOTS... \r\nSOUTH OF A PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nTO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE DISSIPATING INLAND OVER MEXICO.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 19.7N  94.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.2N  95.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N  97.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-07-24 06:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n \r\nTHE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SEVEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND PROVIDE A COMPLETE\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATING SUCH.\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON\r\nBOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED AND BECOME TROPICAL STORM GERT.  WITHIN THE PAST\r\nHOUR...THE SFMR REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 36 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF GERT.  THIS SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE 34 KT WIND RADII.\r\n \r\nGERT IS THE EARLIEST 7TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD\r\nRECORD OF AUGUST 7TH. THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION BEING SEPTEMBER\r\n23RD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0600Z 19.8N  94.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.2N  95.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N  97.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 100.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-07-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n \r\nA SLEW OF DROPSONDES FROM A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH\r\nMISSION IN GERT INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS\r\nREFORMED ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THIS NEW CENTER\r\nIS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTION...AND WHILE THE\r\nDROPSONDE DATA WITHIN THIS CONVECTION HAVE NOT INDICATED ANY\r\nSTRENGTHENING YET...IN FACT THE WINDS AROUND THE NEW CENTER ARE\r\nQUITE LIGHT...THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE 12-18 HOURS\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON\r\nTHE EARLIER STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE OBSERVATIONS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK EXCEPT TO ADJUST\r\nIT NORTHWARD TO ACCOMODATE THE NEW INITIAL POSITION.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9...AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THIS MOTION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nATTEMPTS TO COORDINATE WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO AN EXTENSION OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL...BUT\r\nTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PALMA SOLA TO LA PESCA. \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM\r\nGERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 21.0N  95.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.4N  96.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.8N  99.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-07-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n\r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE BEEN FLYING BACK AND FORTH\r\nACROSS THE AREA WHERE THE CENTER IS SUSPECTED TO BE LOCATED...BUT\r\nSO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO FIND A DEFINITE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION.  RATHER...THE DATA FROM THE PLANE SUGGEST A BROAD AREA\r\nOF LIGHT WINDS AND FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT.  THE AIRCRAFT WINDS ALSO\r\nSUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS...ONE NEAR THE ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION AND A SECOND NEAR THE OLD TRACK...I.E. FARTHER SOUTH. \r\nSINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA ARE CERTAINLY NOT CONCLUSIVE...I WILL\r\nMAINTAIN CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE ADVISORY\r\nLOCATION IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER ESTIMATE\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  GERT IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...\r\nAND IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...THE STORM COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN JUST BEFORE REACHING THE COASTLINE LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 285/8.  A DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF GERT SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM\r\nGERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER AFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH\r\nWOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 21.1N  96.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.7N  97.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 22.3N  98.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.7N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-07-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THIS MORNING'S RECON MISSION...AN EARLIER TRMM\r\nOVERPASS WAS ALSO INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT GERT HAVING A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER.  NEVERTHELESS...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR\r\n35 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS DECENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...BUT THERE IS\r\nNOW ONLY A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GERT\r\nSHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BRINGING THE CENTER\r\nOF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY OR\r\nTHIS EVENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK PRETTY MUCH FOLLOWS THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nRAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER\r\nAFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 21.6N  97.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.1N  98.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.7N  99.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 23.0N 101.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-07-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...\r\nALONG WITH SATELLITE...INDICATE THAT GERT WAS STARTING TO INTENSIFY\r\nAS IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0000Z.  WHILE THE CENTER STAYED\r\nBROAD...THE NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AT\r\n11000 FT AT 2053Z...AND THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED 47 KT AT 850\r\nMB ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS AROUND 00Z.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE COULD NOT\r\nQUITE REACH THE CENTER...BUT EXTRAPOLATED A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB\r\nJUST EAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS DATA IS THE BASIS FOR THE LANDFALL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT AND 1005 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  GERT SHOULD CONTINUE THIS TRACK ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW-MID/LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nRAINFALL...AND RAINS FROM GERT WILL REACH SOME OF THE AREAS EARLIER\r\nAFFECTED BY EMILY...WHICH WOULD POSE AN INCREASED FLOOD THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 22.0N  98.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N  99.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 23.1N 100.9W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gert","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-07-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005\r\n \r\nTAMPICO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF GERT CONTINUES\r\nMOVING INLAND...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 280/10. \r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nSTRESSED THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS RAINFALL...\r\nWHICH COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 22.4N  99.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 22.7N 100.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gert","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-07-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2005\r\n\r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO...SO THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GERT.\r\n\r\nGERT'S REMNANT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME HEAVY\r\nPRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH\r\nTHE ASSOCIATED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...PARTICULARLY\r\nIN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EMILY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 22.6N 100.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 102.5W    15 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS PERHAPS NOT REAL WELL DEFINED IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...THE IMAGERY DOES SHOW A NUMBER OF SMALL SWIRLS\r\nROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER.  THIS IS ALSO NOT THE MOST\r\nTROPICAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONES.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER IS CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...WITHIN 60 NMI...AND THE UPPER LOW\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM MORE\r\nTROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL.  THE DEPRESSION ALSO LIES SLIGHTLY ON\r\nTHE SYMMETRIC WARM CORE SIDE OF BOB HART'S FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE\r\nANALYSIS DIAGRAMS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON\r\nEARLIER SHIP REPORTS OF 25 KT THAT WERE OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS DISPLACING\r\nTHE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS\r\nASYMMETRY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT MOTION OF\r\nTHE CENTER NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE A COUPLE OF WEAK 500 MB\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES THAT SHOULD HELP TO NUDGE THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AND OF LIMITED HELP.  THE GFS DEVELOPS\r\nA POSSIBLY SPURIOUS SECOND LOW CLOSE TO THE DEPRESSION THAT\r\nCOMPLICATES INTERPRETATION OF ITS FORECAST TRACK.  THE UKMET\r\nAPPEARS TO BE INITIALIZED TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH AND THE NOGAPS TOO\r\nFAR TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL AND MEDIUM BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE TREND TODAY HAS BEEN FOR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ALIGNED...AND IF THE CYCLONE\r\nCAN GET A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW IT WOULD BE IN A\r\nMORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS GOING TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND FOLLOW\r\nTHE CYCLONE. IF THIS HAPPENS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE\r\nAGAIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A MODEST WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nIF THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST...IT WOULD BE\r\nTHE EARLIEST 8TH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD.  THE CURRENT RECORD IS\r\nAUGUST 15TH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 28.5N  68.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 30.3N  68.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  66.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 33.3N  64.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 33.8N  62.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  57.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 34.5N  54.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 35.0N  52.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPOSE SOUTHERLY SHEAR... LEAVING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nEXPOSED.  THE PRIMARY CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nPERSISTING NORTH OF THE CENTER... WITH A DISJOINTED BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST.  LACKING ANY OTHER SOURCE OF\r\nRELEVANT DATA THIS EVENING... THE CURRENT INTENSITY HINGES ON\r\nSUBJECTIVE INTERPRETATION OF GOES INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB BASED ON THE CURVED\r\nBANDING... AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA BASED ON THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE ACTUALLY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SINCE THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONCENTRATED CONVECTION... PERHAPS WORTHY OF A T2.5/35 KT DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION USING A SHEAR PATTERN.  HOWEVER... THERE IS\r\nSUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER TO\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN ALL OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND MAINTAIN THE\r\nINTENSITY AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/8... CONSTRUCTED WITH THE HELP OF\r\nA 01Z SSMI OVERPASS... WHICH A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND WITH A SLIGHTLY GREATER NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT.  THIS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE THE START OF THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A\r\nMIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST\r\nCOAST.  EVEN AFTER THAT TROUGH PASSES BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nPERSISTENT WESTERLIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO INDUCE AN EASTWARD MOTION\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INITIALIZE AND\r\nFORECAST THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IN A VARIETY OF WAYS...\r\nNONE OF WHICH APPEAR TO BE COMPLETELY CONSISTENT WITH RECENT MOTION\r\nTRENDS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... MAINLY TO BLEND WITH THE\r\nSLOWER GFDL AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO ALSO MOVE EAST BUT SHEAR OUT DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS... BUT\r\nTHIS WILL LEAVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT PROHIBITIVE FOR TOO MUCH STRENGTHENING. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SHEAR COULD BE JUST WEAK ENOUGH... AND THE OCEAN WARM\r\nENOUGH... TO ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH\r\nABOUT DAY THREE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 29.4N  68.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 30.4N  67.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 31.7N  66.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 32.8N  63.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 33.6N  61.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 34.0N  57.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 34.5N  54.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 35.0N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2005\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CURVATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR OR\r\nCURVED BAND PATTERN ARE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB..AND 1.5 FROM AFWA. \r\n3- AND 6-HOURLY AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN CIMSS ARE NEAR 2.0.  THERE ARE NO SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF\r\nSURFACE WINDS TO HELP ESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.  BASED\r\nON THE SATELLITE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS NOT BEING UPGRADED AT THIS\r\nTIME.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nCONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE.  200 MB GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL\r\nDIMINISH...BUT THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING TO\r\nAFFECT THE DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HISTORICALLY...\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES AT HIGHER LATITUDES HAVE BEEN MORE RESILIENT TO\r\nSHEAR THAN THOSE IN THE DEEP TROPICS.  THIS IS PROBABLY WHY THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS MODEL PREDICTS STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/8.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nAHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NEXT...UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE\r\nSHOULD BE NEARING THE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. \r\nALTHOUGH NEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS HAVE SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PULL\r\nTHE DEPRESSION/STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES...THE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO\r\nSTEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nTRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A SLIGHTLY\r\nBETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION THAN THEY DID EARLIER...AND\r\nTHEIR TRACK FORECASTS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...BUT IT IS FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AT 3-5 DAYS IS EVEN FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 29.9N  68.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 30.8N  67.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 32.1N  65.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 33.1N  62.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 33.7N  60.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 34.5N  55.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 36.0N  51.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 38.0N  47.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...\r\nINCLUDING THE LARGE BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST...THE DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS IMPROVED\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1036Z INDICATED A LARGE AREA\r\nOF UNFLAGGED 30 KT WINDS...WITH QUITE A FEW UNFLAGGED 35 KT VECTORS\r\nIN THE RELATIVELY DRY SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  STORM INTENSITY IS\r\nALSO SUPPORTED BY A 35 KT REPORT FROM SHIP W6SOT AT 12Z NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...AND BY A T2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING HARVEY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE SOUTH OF HARVEY IS PRODUCING EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE CYCLONE'S EASTERN QUADRANT.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL\r\nDIMINISH...BUT THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nOVERTAKE THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF\r\nPERIOD IN A DAY OR SO WHERE THE SHEAR RELAXES AND PERMITS SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AHEAD OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE\r\nNEARING THE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH\r\nNEITHER OF THESE TROUGHS HAVE SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PULL HARVEY\r\nINTO THE MID-LATITUDES...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE WILL BE\r\nENOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A\r\nNORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nHARVEY IS THE EARLIEST-FORMING EIGHTH TROPICAL STORM ON RECORD.  IN\r\nTHOSE YEARS THAT HAVE HAD AT LEAST EIGHT STORMS...WHICH IS ONLY\r\nABOUT HALF OF ALL SEASONS SINCE 1851...THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION\r\nFOR THE EIGHTH STORM IS SEPTEMBER 29TH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 30.8N  68.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 31.8N  66.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 32.6N  64.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 33.3N  61.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  59.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 35.5N  56.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 38.0N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-03 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY FOR HARVEY...AND TO UPDATE THE WIND RADII. \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 62 KT AT 1200 FT IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999 MB.  THE 62 KT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SUPPORTS ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IN FACT\r\nTHE FLIGHT CREW MADE A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1800Z 30.9N  67.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 31.8N  66.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 32.6N  64.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 33.3N  61.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  59.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 35.5N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 38.0N  51.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005\r\n \r\nON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH HARVEY...THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nFOUND THAT THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 998 MB.  THERE IS NOW A SMALL\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  THIS WILL\r\nPROVIDE A BRIEF LOW-SHEAR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR HARVEY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BECOME ESTABLISHED IN\r\n36-48 HOURS.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT HARVEY COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE.  THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nHARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n060/9.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY WILL LEAVE THE SYSTEM BEHIND FOR THE\r\nNEXT SHORT WAVE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THIS COULD CAUSE HARVEY TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME BEFORE ACCELERATING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 31.1N  67.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 31.8N  65.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 32.5N  63.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 33.0N  61.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  59.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 34.5N  57.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 37.5N  52.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 40.5N  47.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-08-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...IN FACT...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION IT LOOKS LIKE A SKELETON. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ONLY BETWEEN 35 AND\r\n45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT DESPITE SUCH POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...\r\nRECON MEASURED 62 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n998 MB EARLIER TODAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEN KEPT AT 50\r\nKNOTS UNTIL THE NEXT PLANE REACHES THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY. THERE\r\nIS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR\r\nHARVEY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE SHEAR IS NOT NORMALLY A\r\nDETRIMENT TO NON-PURE TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE HARVEY. THE CHANCES OF\r\nBECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ARE VERY\r\nSMALL.  AS A PRECAUTION...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS KEPT FOR\r\nBERMUDA...TAKING INTO CONSIDERATION HISTORICAL ERRORS IN INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS. HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN 36 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nHARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST...BUT THE STEERING WILL LIKELY VARY IN SPEED AS\r\nSHORTWAVES MOVE BY THE AREA. HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN\r\nAS SOON AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA IN A DAY OR\r\nSO. THEN...ANOTHER APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE\r\nWESTERLY FLOW AND HARVEY WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nNOTE: A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...JUST RECEIVED...SUGGESTS THAT\r\nWINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LESS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. WE WOULD\r\nRATHER WAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BEFORE WE LOWER THE\r\nINTENSITY...IF NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 31.5N  65.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 32.1N  64.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 32.8N  62.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 33.0N  60.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  58.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 35.0N  55.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 38.0N  51.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 41.0N  45.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-08-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2005\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON FOUND A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...\r\nBUT SO FAR THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DO NOT SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 50 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH HARVEY IS\r\nBEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...IT IS\r\nHOLDING ITS OWN...AS IS TYPICAL OF THESE HIGHER LATITUDE SYSTEMS. \r\nSOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...BUT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS MODEL SHOWS HARVEY'S CIRCULATION BECOMING\r\nELONGATED IN 3-5 DAYS...SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nHARVEY IS MOVING AT ABOUT 070/11.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 60W IS\r\nMOVING AWAY FROM THE STORM SO THE STEERING CURRENT WILL PROBABLY\r\nWEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL ANOTHER APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH ACCELERATES THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\nTHIS NEXT TROUGH...HOWEVER...WILL NOT HAVE MUCH AMPLITUDE SO IT\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE TO CAUSE A BIG INCREASE IN HARVEY'S\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY\r\nSLOWER THAN IN THE EARLIER RUNS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE U.K. MET AND GFS...WHICH ARE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN MY\r\nFORECAST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFDL...WHICH ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 31.8N  64.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 32.2N  62.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 32.6N  60.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 32.9N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 33.3N  58.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 35.0N  55.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 37.5N  51.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 40.0N  47.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-08-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A REMARKABLE TRANSFORMATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY AND MOST OF THE HYBRID OR SUBTROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE ARE NO LONGER PRESENT. HARVEY\r\nLOOKS FULLY TROPICAL TODAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nGOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. CONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND\r\nARE 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA VERY MODEST INCREASE IN THE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IT\r\nWOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN FORECAST FOR HARVEY\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nHARVEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 KNOTS...AWAY\r\nFROM BERMUDA.  AS THE SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF HARVEY MOVES\r\nEASTWARD...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND HARVEY\r\nSHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A NEW APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO\r\nSPEED UP AGAIN.  THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 32.0N  63.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 32.2N  61.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 32.6N  59.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 33.5N  57.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 35.0N  54.9W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 38.0N  51.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005\r\n \r\nHARVEY CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH MARKED\r\nCONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS AND GOOD OUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THE SHEAR MAY RELAX SOME...AND HARVEY\r\nCOULD EXPERIENCE A MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nBEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nHARVEY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nON THIS GENERAL TRACK...BUT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...SINCE\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT.    \r\nBEYOND 3 DAYS...A NEW SHORTWAVE WILL ACCELERATE THE WESTERLY FLOW\r\nRESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN HARVEY'S FORWARD SPEED. BOTH THE\r\nSHORT TERM DECREASE IN SPEED AND THE LATER ACCELERATION ARE\r\nSUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 32.4N  61.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 32.7N  60.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 33.2N  58.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 34.0N  57.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 34.5N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 37.0N  53.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 40.5N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 43.0N  44.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nINDICATE HARVEY REMAINING A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM.  EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED...THE LAST FEW\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE DEVELOPING\r\nOVER THE STORM.  RECENT SHORTWAVE IR AND MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE\r\nTHE CENTER OF HARVEY MAY BE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION. WE WILL HOLD OFF SHIFTING THE POSITION SOUTHWARD UNTIL WE\r\nSEE FURTHER CONFIRMATION.\r\n\r\nHARVEY IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NORTHEAST OF\r\nHARVEY. SINCE THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE AHEAD OF THE\r\nSTORM...HARVEY WILL MOST LIKELY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...UNTIL A SECOND TROUGH CARRIES THE STORM RAPIDLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nDUE TO THE INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF\r\nHARVEY SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS HARVEY AS A \r\n55 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 32.5N  60.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 32.9N  58.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.4N  57.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 34.1N  56.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 35.4N  55.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 38.3N  51.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 41.5N  46.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 45.0N  38.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HARVEY IS\r\nEXPERIENCING SIGNIFICANT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR...\r\nWHICH HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO LAG BEHIND TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME LESS DISTINCT...ALTHOUGH A BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND JUST NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T3.5/55 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A COUPLE OF 55 KT UNFLAGGED WIND\r\nVECTORS NOTED IN A 04/2228Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/08. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS\r\nADJUSTED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST\r\nTRACK. OTHER THAN THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH OF HARVEY THAT HAD BEEN MOVING THE CYCLONE ALONG AT A DECENT\r\nCLIP HAS NOW LIFTED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING FLOW.\r\nHOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND SLOWLY LIFT\r\nHARVEY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS...WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 24\r\nHOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THEN.\r\nAFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE\r\nTO 30 KT OR MORE BY 96 HOURS AS HARVEY ALSO MOVES OVER SUB-26C\r\nSSTS. THIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING AND POSSIBLE\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 32.5N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 32.9N  57.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  57.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 34.6N  56.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 36.0N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 39.1N  50.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 42.5N  44.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 47.0N  34.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER HARVEY AND\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE\r\nCYCLONE STILL HAS A VERY TIGHT AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AS\r\nINDICATED BY CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND HIGH\r\nRESOLUTION QUICKSCAT. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50\r\nKNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RELAX...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nAS ANTICIPATED...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKENING AND HARVEY IS\r\nMEANDERING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  WITH A LITTLE RIDGING DEVELOPING\r\nTO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE ACCELERATES\r\nTHE WESTERLY FLOW BY 48 HOURS OR SO. HARVEY SHOULD THEN INCREASE\r\nITS FORWARD SPEED AND GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE\r\nCOOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 32.4N  58.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 32.9N  57.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  56.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 35.5N  56.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 37.0N  54.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 45.5N  39.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 50.0N  30.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n \r\nHARVEY CONTINUES AS A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MOST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS ON\r\nSATELLITE THAT HARVEY IS LOCATED AT THE TAIL OF A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\nHARVEY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND AN\r\nEXPANSION OF THE CIRCULATION AS A NEW MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE\r\nAPPROACHES. THEREFORE...HARVEY WILL LIKELY BECOME A STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD. \r\n\r\nHARVEY HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS DURING THE DAY. \r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TONIGHT...BUT WITH A LITTLE\r\nRIDGING DEVELOPING TO THE EAST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD\r\nTHEN INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  57.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 32.9N  56.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 34.1N  55.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 36.1N  54.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 38.0N  53.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 42.0N  47.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 45.9N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 49.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n \r\nDURING THE EVENING HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SEVERAL BURSTS\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY. HOWEVER THE WELL DEFINED\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THE STORM.\r\nAFTERWHICH...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION\r\nAS HARVEY ACCELERATES AND INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES WHILE\r\nUNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  \r\n\r\nDESPITE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TO PULL HARVEY TO THE\r\nNORTH...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE STORM REMAINS TO THE EAST AROUND\r\n5 KNOTS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE EARLIER PERIODS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES HARVEY IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST. ONCE A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST...A\r\nWESTERLY SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. \r\n\r\nBASED ON A 2202 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER HARVEY...THE 34 KT\r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AND INCREASED ACROSS THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 32.4N  57.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 33.0N  56.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 34.5N  55.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 36.1N  54.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 38.0N  52.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 42.0N  46.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 45.0N  37.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 47.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n \r\nA DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...WHICH SUPPORTED BY AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CONTAINED 40-KT AND 50-KT UNFLAGGED\r\nWIND VECTORS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/06. HARVEY HAS TURNED TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT THE OVERALL\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nHARVEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY\r\nCOME UNDER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND LIFTS OUT THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nTHIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE GETS\r\nCAPTURED BY THE SYSTEM AND DEEPENS SLIGHTLY INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 33.3N  56.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 34.2N  56.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 35.6N  55.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 37.2N  53.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 39.2N  51.2W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 42.4N  44.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  36.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 48.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 09Z INDICATES WINDS OF 50-55 KT...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS BASIS.  SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE HARVEY\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nHARVEY COULD RE-INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS TURNED MORE TO THE NORTH...010/6...AND THE LAST\r\nCOUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MIGHT ACTUALLY\r\nHAVE MEANDERED TO THE NORTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE\r\nNEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING\r\nEASTWARD.  THIS SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND FAVORS THE GFDL OVER THE GFS INITIALLY...AS THE MOST RECENT RUN\r\nOF THE GFDL SEEMS TO HAVE BETTER CAPTURED THE RECENT LEFT TURN.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 33.9N  56.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 34.9N  56.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 36.2N  55.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 37.7N  53.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 39.3N  51.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 42.0N  44.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 43.0N  36.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 45.5N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n \r\nHARVEY'S CIRCULATION TOOK A SHARP LEFT HOOK LATE THIS MORNING...AND\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEVER FULLY CONNECTED WITH THE EARLIER\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST.  THE SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN HAS A SHEARED\r\nAPPEARANCE...WITH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED COMPARED TO 6 HOURS\r\nAGO AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT.  ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE\r\nENCOUNTERED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...HARVEY IS LIKELY TO FIND\r\nNEW LIFE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...HARVEY APPEARS TO BE\r\nRESUMING A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE ADVISORY MOTION IS\r\n030/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS PUSHING EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO HOOK UP WITH HARVEY IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND INDUCE SOME\r\nACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST.  GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD HARVEY'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS WILL COME\r\nINTO PHASE WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES AND CUT OFF.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT\r\nSLOWER AFTER 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 33.7N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 34.4N  55.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 35.9N  54.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 37.6N  52.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 39.3N  50.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 41.5N  44.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 43.5N  36.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 44.0N  31.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n\r\nAFTER MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HARVEY'S CIRCULATION\r\nEXPOSED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER IS TUCKED\r\nUNDER THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN.  EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS\r\nARE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...CONFIRMED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF HARVEY ON SATELLITE REMAINS\r\nSURPRISINGLY GOOD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DIGGING SHORT WAVE\r\nTROUGH EAST OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE APRROACHING TROUGH MAY\r\nBE AIDING IN HARVEY'S PERSISTENCE IN REMAINING A 50 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM DUE TO TROUGH INTERACTION.  \r\n\r\nHARVEY IS FINALLY SUSTAINING A NORTHEAST MOTION AT 040/8. AS THE\r\nSHORT WAVE APPROACHES...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE HARVEY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...\r\nHARVEY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE STORM\r\nMOVES OVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW THAT EXTRATROPICAL HARVEY MAY LINGER FOR A FEW DAYS IN\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 34.4N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 35.4N  54.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 37.0N  52.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 38.5N  51.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 39.7N  48.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 43.0N  38.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 44.0N  32.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n\r\nWHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY IS UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS\r\nOVERCAST...A RECENT AQUA SATELLITE OVERPASS SHOWS THE STORM IS\r\nSTILL SHEARED WITH THE CONVECTION IN A CLUSTER NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THESE ARE UNCHANGED FROM\r\nEARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 040/10.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING HARVEY...\r\nWHICH SHOULD MOVE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY AND\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD LATER.  THAT BEING SAID...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE\r\nSLOWER TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...AND\r\nSEVERAL OF THEM SUGGEST THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME A CUT-OFF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 5.  IN LIGHT OF THIS...THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS\r\nSTILL FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE LARGE-SCALE OR CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT CAUSED BY THE TROUGH\r\nSHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 24-36 HR.  HARVEY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 120 HR...AND\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBLY THAT IT RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 72 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED FROM A WEAKENING TREND TO STEADY\r\nINTENSITY DURING THIS TIME TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 35.4N  54.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 36.4N  53.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 37.7N  52.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 38.9N  50.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 39.9N  48.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 41.0N  43.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 42.0N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 43.0N  33.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES HARVEY'S CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION...AS A RESULT OF A PERSISTENTLY \r\nSHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  DVORAK DATA-T CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nSHOWED RAIN ENHANCED 50KT WINDS IN THE STRONGEST AREA OF CONVECTION\r\nWITH SEVERAL NON-FLAGGED 40 KT AND 45 KT WINDS.  BOTH THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/10. THE STEERING FLOW REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO MOVE HARVEY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nFOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION THEREAFTER.  WITH THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR AND SST'S BELOW 26 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HARVEY TO SLOW DOWN\r\nONCE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES MAINTAINING GALE FORCE WINDS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT\r\nSLOWER...AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 35.8N  53.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 36.9N  52.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 38.1N  50.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 39.3N  48.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 40.2N  46.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 41.0N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 42.0N  38.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 42.5N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n \r\nTODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTERS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CIRCULATION OF HARVEY A LITTLE NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS POSITION.  WE CAN EXPECT SEVERAL MORE OF THESE\r\nSMALL CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP...DISSIPATE..AND RE-DEVELOP THIS\r\nEVENING AS THE PRIMARY CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES WERE 3.0/3.0...SO\r\nHARVEY REMAINS A SHEARED 45 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN\r\n18Z SHIP REPORT.\r\n\r\nTHE 18-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION IS 045/11.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER FOREWARD\r\nMOTION THEREAFTER.  THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...ALONG 60W...IS\r\nCONTINUING TO DIG WEST OF HARVEY AND WILL STEER THE STORM\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH PASSING TO THE EAST OF HARVEY IN 2 OR 3\r\nDAYS. ONCE THIS OCCURS... HARVEY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WEAKER WESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE OTHER\r\nTHAN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nRE-LOCATED CENTER...AND A SLOWER EAST- NORTHEAST MOTION IN THE\r\nLATER PERIODS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL HOPEFULLY OCCUR IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS GALE FORCE\r\nWINDS THROUGH 5 DAYS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 37.0N  52.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 37.9N  51.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 39.1N  49.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 40.2N  47.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 41.0N  44.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 42.2N  40.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 43.0N  38.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 43.0N  35.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n\r\nHARVEY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN...REMAIN AT 3.0...45\r\nKT.  HARVEY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS AND\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SOON. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE\r\nWINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS 045/11.  HARVEY IS MOVING WITH A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES. \r\nBY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY EVEN MOVE A LITTLE SOUTHWARD.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE VERY SLOWLY\r\nFROM DAYS 4 TO 5.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 37.8N  51.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 38.8N  50.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 39.8N  48.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 40.7N  46.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 41.5N  44.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 42.5N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 43.0N  36.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 43.0N  35.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS DECREASED NOTABLY DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS NORTH OF\r\nTHE GULF STREAM AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/12...UNCERTAIN\r\nBECAUSE THE LAST FEW SHORTWAVE IR IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MAY BE\r\nFARTHER EAST THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  HARVEY SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...THEN\r\nSLOW AND TURN EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nGENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH\r\nRACES THE STORM OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...A LITTLE FASTER IN\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HR AND SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nHARVEY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHR...AND MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ARE RE-INTENSIFYING\r\nHARVEY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TO 35 KT BY 120\r\nHR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 38.9N  50.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 39.9N  48.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 40.9N  46.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 41.5N  44.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 42.1N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 42.5N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 42.5N  35.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 42.0N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005\r\n \r\nHARVEY IS STEADILY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS EXPOSED AND THE WEAKENING CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER... AND ALONG A NARROW BAND STRETCHING TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 45 KT...WHICH\r\nIS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED\r\nAS HARVEY GOES THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12 HOURS... OR\r\nLESS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE...NOW 050/19. \r\nHOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT HARVEY WILL SLOW DOWN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MEANDER LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nLEAVE THE STORM BEHIND...WHERE IT MUST WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT\r\nMIDLATITUDE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC SEVERAL DAYS\r\nFROM NOW.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR HARVEY WILL TRAVEL\r\nEASTWARD BEFORE STALLING...WITH NOGAPS BEING THE FAST OUTLIER AND\r\nTHE GFS AND GFDL BEING MUCH SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION BUT IS STILL FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY DUE TO THE FASTER THAN EXPECTED ACCELERATION THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 40.3N  47.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 41.2N  45.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 42.2N  42.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 42.7N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 42.9N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 43.0N  35.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 42.5N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 42.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005\r\n \r\nHARVEY IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24 CELSIUS OR LESS\r\nAND LACKS CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS ASYMMETRIC AND IS GRADUALLY MERGING WITH A MIDLATITUDE\r\nCLOUD BAND.  EVEN THOUGH IT IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL... EX-HARVEY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\n\r\nHARVEY HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AGAIN AS EXPECTED... AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17.  WHILE THE STORM IS WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nMIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nHARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND PERHAPS MEANDER JUST\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE AZORES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE\r\nUKMET IS THE OUTLIER TAKING HARVEY QUICKLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...\r\nTHE GFS... NOGAPS... AND GFDL SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nBEYOND DAY 3... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 40.8N  46.1W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 41.9N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 43.3N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  38.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 44.6N  36.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 44.5N  32.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 44.0N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 43.5N  30.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005\r\n \r\nYES...INDEED WE HAVE ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE DEEP\r\nTROPICS. SATELLITE IMAGES AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE AREA AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN\r\nTHE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nCAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM IS LARGE\r\nWITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE ALLEGED CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS\r\nEARLY FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IN\r\nFACT...IT COULD REFORM ANYWHERE WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THIS\r\nMAKES TRACKING THE SYSTEM HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nIT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS...GRADUALLY GAINING LATITUDE. NOW THAT WE HAVE A\r\nDEPRESSION...THE 18Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS WILL PROBABLY GIVE US BETTER\r\nGUIDANCE TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST MIRRORS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BY 72 HOURS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 12.7N  34.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 13.0N  36.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.5N  38.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.0N  40.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  42.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 15.5N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N  49.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N  53.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE THIS EVENING.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 2245Z AND SHORTWAVE IR\r\nIMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE CENTER IS\r\nELONGATED NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...WITH SATELLITE FIXES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB FALLING NEAR THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST END.  IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE MEAN CENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  OVERPASSES FROM THE TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES\r\nLATER TONIGHT MAY HELP RESOLVE THE ISSUE.  DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nCURRENTLY SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/11.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE CYCLONE COULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN\r\nTHE MID-ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 18Z GFS MODEL\r\nDID NOT APPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE WELL...WHILE THE 18Z\r\nNOGAPS MODEL DISSIPATED THE SYSTEM IN LESS THAN 72 HR.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THUS...THE BIGGEST CONTROL ON THE\r\nINTENSITY SHOULD BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATER...WHILE REPORTS IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION SHOW 26C WATER.  COMBINE THIS\r\nWITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD\r\nSOMEWHAT SLOW...PERHAPS EVEN SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 28C WATER BY 72 HR...WHICH\r\nCOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...\r\nANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD DELAY THE ARRIVAL OVER\r\nWARMER WATER AND SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCOMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT STRONGER\r\nTHAN...THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII FORECAST AT 72 HR HAS BEEN REVISED BASED ON\r\nCLIMATOLOGY AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 13.0N  35.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 13.3N  36.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 13.7N  38.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 14.3N  41.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 14.9N  43.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.5N  47.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N  50.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N  54.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF TD-9 REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE POSITION IS ABOUT 60 NMI NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND\r\nFORECAST TRACKS BASED ON MICROWAVE AND NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. A 05/0411Z AQUA OVERPASS CLEARLY INDICATED THE BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION WAS BETWEEN 14N AND 15N LATITUDE. A MORE SOUTHERLY\r\nPOSITION CLOSER TO 14N WAS CHOSEN SINCE THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER MAY HAVE\r\nTO BE ADJUSTED FARTHER NORTH ONCE VISIBLE IMAGERY IS AVAILABLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11...BASED ON THE\r\nOVERALL MOTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.  TD-9 IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA RIDGE THAT IS\r\nBEING CREATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N 42W...AND AN\r\nASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL SLOWLY FILL IN AS THE LOW WEAKENS...\r\nWHICH WILL ACT TO FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE DAY 4 AND 5 TIME PERIODS...THE MODELS\r\nDIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD ANOTHER DEVELOPING\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHEREAS THE GFS AND GFDL MOVE THE STORM\r\nMORE WESTWARD. GIVEN THE HIGH ZONAL FLOW FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS\r\nTHE U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE\r\nTOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...LESS THAN 5\r\nKT...THE HIGHER LATITUDE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK KEEPS\r\nTHE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS UNTIL 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS. GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASING SSTS ABOVE 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.ON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 14.4N  36.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 15.1N  37.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 15.9N  39.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N  41.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.7N  44.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N  48.6W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 20.5N  53.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N  58.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n \r\nHOW LITTLE WE KNOW ABOUT THE GENESIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES DURING THE DAY YESTERDAY SHOWED A DISTINCT DISTURBANCE IN THE\r\nDEEP TROPICS WITH ALL KNOWN FACTORS APPARENTLY FAVORABLE FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. SURPRISINGLY THIS\r\nMORNING...VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME\r\nDISORGANIZED. UNEXPECTEDLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS AND LOST MOST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL MAINTAINS A LARGE AND\r\nVIGOROUS ENVELOPE WITH AT LEAST 25 KNOTS.  IT IS INTERESTING TO\r\nNOTE THAT THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS WERE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFROM THIS SYSTEM AND MOVED IT WESTWARD THROUGH THE ATLANTIC.\r\nHOWEVER...IN THE LATEST 6Z GFS RUN...THERE IS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL...LIKE THE GFS...ALSO CHANGED ITS TUNE AT 6Z\r\nAND NOW EVEN SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THESE DRASTIC CHANGES SEEN IN GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO\r\nMAKES A DRASTIC CHANGE IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNOW KEPT AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A MODEST DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED WHEN THE CYCLONE\r\nREACHES WARMER WATERS...IF IT SURVIVES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 16.4N  37.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  39.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N  41.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  43.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  45.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 23.0N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 26.5N  52.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nSOME CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER WHERE THE SSTS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. IT IS\r\nESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS. THE EVOLUTION OF A\r\nLARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK\r\nFORECASTS. IF THE LOW MOVES AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...IT\r\nCOULD INDUCE WIND SHEAR AND ALSO A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION TO\r\nTHE DEPRESSION...RESULTING IN WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nDEPRESSION PASSES SOUTH OF THE LOW...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE LESS\r\nHOSTILE..AND THE OCEAN IS WARMER THERE.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESION DOES NOT HAVE DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS TIME AND \r\nIS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\n14-16 KNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AND A MODEST STRENGHTENING BEYOND 3 DAYS.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS ALSO A STRONG\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT SURVIVE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NORTHERNMOST\r\nTRACK IS THE GFS AND THE SOUTHERNMOST IS THE UK MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 17.0N  39.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  41.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  43.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  45.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  51.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 25.0N  54.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  56.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 05 2005\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AT THIS TIME.  THE CYCLONE IS OVER 26C-27C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS TAKEN IT INTO\r\nAN AREA OF WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS COMBINATION HAS\r\nINTERRUPTED DEVELOPMENT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REMAINS 25 KT\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT AND\r\nSSM/I WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/17.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A LOW/\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  OBSERVATIONS AND\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THIS RIDGE BETWEEN\r\n50W-60W PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVEY...AND THIS\r\nWEAKNESS WILL NOT COMPLETELY FILL DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  IN\r\nRESPONSE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nWITH SOME SLOWING FOR ABOUT 72 HR...AND THEN POSSIBLY TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE FIRST 2-3\r\nDAYS OF MOTION AND THEN DIVERGES.  THE UKMET AND THE BAM MODELS\r\nCALL FOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 96-120 HR...WHILE\r\nTHE NOGAPS...LBAR...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CALL FOR A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL CONU.  THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HR\r\nIS ALSO SLOWER THAN EARLIER IN LIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N42W WITH\r\nA TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N44W.  THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED\r\nWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT COULD CONTINUE FOR 2-3 DAYS AS A\r\nSERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS MODEL SLOWLY STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM DESPITE\r\nTHE SHEAR AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE OR\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE AREA BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE....AS FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 17.6N  40.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N  42.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.6N  44.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.6N  46.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.7N  49.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  52.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 25.0N  55.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  56.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-08-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n \r\nTD-9 REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE INNER\r\nCORE WIND FIELD HAS ACTUALLY IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME\r\nYESTERDAY WITH NO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS APPARENT IN NIGHTIME\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON\r\nTHE TIGHTER INNER CIRCULATION...TWO CONSECUTIVE QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES\r\nINDICATING NUMEROUS 30-KT UNFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT...AND A CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1006.5MB ...EQUAL\r\nTO ABOUT 33 KT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN RECENTLY BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP\r\nINTO A CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE ABOUT 120 NMI AWAY\r\nFROM THE CENTER...WHICH FURTHER SUGGEST IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND TURNED\r\nMORE WESTWARD NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS PROBLEMATIC IN\r\nTHAT IT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INTENSITY...AND THEREFORE...THE\r\nVERTICAL DEPTH OF CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SYSTEM FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.\r\nTHESE UNFAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH AN ABUNDANCE OF\r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE TO A MINIMUM DURING THAT TIME. THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARMER WATER\r\nAND MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND DEEPENING OF THE VERTICAL\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BE\r\nSTEERED SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TOWARD AN\r\nEXPECTED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 55W-60W\r\nLONGITUDE. HOWEVER...IF THE STORM MOVES MORE WESTWARD AND STAYS\r\nBELOW 20N LATITUDE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN IT MAY NEVER FEEL THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND NOT TURN NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE ALREADY TOO FAR TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER\r\nTHAT...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT OR SOUTH AS THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nABATE FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER AFTER THAT SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK IS FARTHER SOUTH IN A\r\nLOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL USED. HOWEVER...\r\nIF THE ACTUAL FORECAST ENDS UP BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THEN WARMER\r\nWATER AND EVEN LESS VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 17.7N  41.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 18.2N  43.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.8N  46.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.4N  48.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.1N  51.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 21.3N  54.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  57.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 25.5N  59.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-08-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION THIS MORNING...EXCEPT THAT MULTIPLE SWIRLS HAVE BEEN\r\nAPPARENT NEAR THE MEAN CIRCULATION CENTER.  THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS MISSED THE DEPRESSION.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30\r\nKT...IN ACCORD WITH THE PASS FROM LAST NIGHT.  CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER IS CURRENTLY VERY LIMITED DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...DRY\r\nAIR...AND RELATIVELY COOL SSTS.  NONE OF THESE CONDITIONS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...HOWEVER...THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER 28C WATER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  A\r\nTRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD ALSO KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM AWAY FROM THE WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE\r\nGFDL GRADUALLY FADES THIS SYSTEM AWAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 MB RIDGE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM HARVY SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...LED BY THE\r\nNOGAPS...LIFTS THE DEPRESSION INTO THIS WEAKNESS.  THE GFS ACTUALLY\r\nSPLITS THE DEPRESSION...TAKING A PIECE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS\r\nBUT ALSO CARRYING A WEAK WAVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  IT IS HARD TO BE\r\nCONFIDENT AT THIS POINT ABOUT THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST.  IN\r\nTHE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nHOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO ARE SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 45 NMI\r\nTO THE NORTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION.  IF THIS TURNS OUT TO BE THE\r\nDOMINANT CENTER...THEN A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 17.9N  42.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 18.3N  43.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.9N  46.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.4N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 20.4N  50.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 22.0N  53.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  56.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 25.5N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-08-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION BECAME BETTER DEFINED LATE THIS\r\nMORNING TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL POSITION ESTIMATE.\r\nTHE ADJUSTED TRACK YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/11 AVERAGED OVER\r\nTHE PAST 18 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL SHEARED WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE\r\nHAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN BANDING HOWEVER...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM\r\nLOOKS STRONGER THAN IT DID THIS MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THERE ARE\r\nSOME 35 KT WINDS IN THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH I HAVE NO DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES HIGHER THAN 25 KT...AND SO I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR NOW. THE DEPRESSION IS GOING TO HAVE TO\r\nCONTEND WITH DRY AIR AND WESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH WILL BE GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL...WHICH DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS PERHAPS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS\r\nAFTERNOON ON A TRACK THAT ULTIMATELY BENDS TO THE RIGHT THROUGH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM\r\nHARVEY.  THE 12Z GFS NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nPARTLY DUE THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION...AND\r\nPARTLY TO THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 19.0N  43.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.6N  44.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.3N  46.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  48.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  50.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 22.8N  53.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  56.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 27.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-08-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY SHEARED. THERE IS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CAN HARDLY\r\nSUPPORT A T-NUMBER BY USING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CENTER AND THE\r\nCONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  IT IS DIFFICULT\r\nTO VISUALIZE HOW THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR\r\nCAUSED BY THE AMPLIFYING UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTH. THE ATLANTIC IS\r\nPLAGUED WITH UPPER-LOWS...A PATTERN THAT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES TO INTENSIFY. THE GFS IS KEEPING THE UNFAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR DAYS...AND BOTH THE GFS AND\r\nTHE GFDL RELENTLESSLY INSIST ON DISSIPATING THE CYCLONE. IT IS\r\nHARD TO GO AGAINST THESE TWO MODELS. HOWEVER...CONTINUITY FROM\r\nPREVIOUS FORECASTS WILL BE FOLLOWED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS IS\r\nBASED ON THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A LESS HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285\r\nDEGREES AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nUK...THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS PREFER A SOUTHERNMOST TRACK\r\nAND THE NOGAPS A NORTHERMOST. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE NOT INCLUDED\r\nSINCE THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE QUITE SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THERE IS LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES...THERE\r\nWILL BE NOTHING TO TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY GFS AND GFDL MODELS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 18.9N  44.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.2N  45.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.7N  47.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.5N  49.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.0N  54.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  57.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 27.0N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-08-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n \r\nNIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION NINE HAS AGAIN REFORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS SHEARED...CONVECTION\r\nHAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA...SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A 30 KT DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/9.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LOCATED NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nHARVEY.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST IN\r\nTHE RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD AND A\r\nSECOND RIDGE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR POSSIBLY NORTH\r\nTHEREAFTER.  TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nWITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND\r\nTHE GFS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION.  THE UKMET TAKES THE\r\nDEPRESSION FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT INITIALIZED\r\nTHE SYSTEM TOO FAR SOUTH EVEN BEFORE THE RECENT RE-FORMATION.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY MOVE MORE\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST...WHICH EVEN WITH THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ONE POTENTIAL\r\nPROBLEM WITH THE FORECAST TRACK IS THAT THE CENTER MAY NOT BE\r\nTHROUGH RE-FORMING JUST YET.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR OR JUST WEST OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION AND LOTS OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR.  THE GFS AND\r\nCANDIAN MODELS FORECAST A SURGE OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO\r\nDEVELOP AND REPLACE THE TROUGH WITH AN ANTICYCLONE.  THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS ARE LESS BULLISH ON THIS POSSIBILITY...AND SO FAR THE WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS CONTINUED SHEAR.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION AND GRADUALLY WARMING SE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SLOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  IF THE GFS/CANADIAN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL PATTERN DOES DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM COULD GET MUCH\r\nSTRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY DISSIPATED THE DEPRESSION...NOW\r\nCALLS FOR IT TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 19.6N  44.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 20.0N  46.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.7N  48.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.4N  50.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 22.2N  52.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  55.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 25.5N  57.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 28.0N  60.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-08-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE BASIS OF A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 0849Z THIS MORNING...SHOWING 40 KT VECTORS JUST\r\nOUTSIDE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nAMBIGUITY VECTORS FROM THIS PASS ALSO SHOW THE DYING CENTER THAT\r\nWAS TRACKED WESTWARD LAST EVENING AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE NEW\r\nCENTER THAT FORMED FARTHER NORTH. THE STORM UPGRADE IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA.\r\nSINCE THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AS WELL AS THE ORGANIZATION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nIT IS SOMETIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE TO TRACK THE OVERALL DISTURBANCE\r\nTHAN THE CIRCULATION CENTER ITSELF...IN THIS CASE IGNORING THE\r\nCIRCULATIONS THAT HAVE FORMED...MOVED MORE WESTWARD...AND THEN\r\nDIED...ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY NEW CENTERS TO THE NORTH.  DOING SO\r\nYIELDS AN OVERALL SYSTEM MOTION OF 300/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. THE GFS...NOGAPS...\r\nUKMET...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND\r\nWEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A\r\nGENERAL...IF ERRATIC...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS\r\nAND IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nIRENE IS ONLY SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD WARMER WATERS.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nUPPER FLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM.  THE GFDL NO LONGER MAKES IRENE A HURRICANE AND IN FACT SHOWS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH\r\nFAVORS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO WARMER WATERS AND THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF LESS SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES ON ITS RECORD-SETTING PACE.\r\nIRENE IS THE EARLIEST NINTH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE\r\nOLD MARK BY 13 DAYS.  NORMALLY BY THIS DATE ONLY TWO NAMED STORMS\r\nHAVE FORMED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 20.5N  45.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  47.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  50.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 22.8N  52.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  55.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 27.5N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  59.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-08-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRENE THIS MORNING\r\nHAS DISSIPATED OR BEEN LEFT BEHIND BY WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES\r\nNOT RETURN THE CIRCULATION WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.  FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY DRY AIR AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE CYCLONE MAY\r\nWELL NOT SURVIVE THIS TRIP BUT IF IT DOES...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER PATTERN MAY EXIST AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG THE PATH\r\nOF IRENE SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nBELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL DISSIPATES IRENE WITHIN\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE CURRENTLY LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE. WITH THE EXCEPTION\r\nOF THE CANADIAN MODEL...GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE\r\nWESTWARD AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS TO THE EAST OF THIS RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 21.1N  46.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.7N  47.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.4N  49.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  51.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.8N  53.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  55.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 32.5N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-08-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2005\r\n\r\nA FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AND IN\r\nA SMALL BAND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS RATHER PALTRY.  EVEN THOUGH IRENE DOES NOT LOOK MUCH\r\nLIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM\r\nAROUND 2115 UTC SHOWED SOME UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS IN THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT.  THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nAFTERWARDS...ASSUMING IRENE SURVIVES...IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND...PERHAPS...MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCONDITIONS.  THEREFORE SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER 36\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 300/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST.  IRENE IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 21.5N  47.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.2N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N  50.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.6N  52.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N  54.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 27.0N  57.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 30.0N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 33.0N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-08-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005\r\n\r\nA NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF\r\nIRENE DURING THE PAST 6 HR...ALTHOUGH THE BURST IS LESS IMPRESSIVE\r\nTHAT THE ONE AT THIS TIME LAST NIGHT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND BASED ON THIS IRENE MAY HAVE\r\nWEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...ANY DOWNGRADE CAN WAIT UNTIL\r\nAFTER DATA FROM THE NEXT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS ARRIVES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE 12-HR INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY\r\nBE A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT AND FASTER.  IRENE REMAINS SOUTH OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH LARGE-MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO PERSIST\r\nFOR 48-72 HR.  THIS SHOULD KEEP IRENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nHEADING FOR THAT TIME.  BEYOND 72 HR...MANY MODELS FORECAST IRENE\r\nTO TURN MORE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE U. S. NORTHEAST COAST.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS TURNING\r\nIRENE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 96 HR...THE NOGAPS DOING SO IN SPITE OF A\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT SINCE ITS LAST RUN.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE BAM MODELS DO NOT SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN...CONTINUING\r\nIRENE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 120 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHERLY TURN AFTER 72 HR...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nENTIRE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT WESTWARD FROM 6 HR AGO. \r\nHOWEVER...THE TRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE\r\nTHROUGH 96 HR...AND IT MAY HAVE TO BE SHIFTED FARTHER WESTWARD\r\nAFTER THE NEXT ROUND OF MODEL RUNS.\r\n\r\nIRENE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD\r\nLIMIT STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nWARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS NEAR IRENE.  THE NOGAPS BUILDS A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nSTORM...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN BUILD A MORE MODEST\r\nRIDGE.  HOW MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT IS DUE TO THE MODEL OUTFLOW\r\nFROM IRENE IS UNKNOWN...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE MODELS MAY BE\r\nOVERDOING THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASED ON A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHEAR THAT WILL ALLOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES\r\nIRENE OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE GFDL IS AGAIN DISSIPATING IRENE IN LESS THAN 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 21.9N  48.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 22.6N  50.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.4N  52.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 24.2N  54.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 25.1N  55.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 27.0N  58.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 30.0N  60.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 33.0N  60.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-08-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 08 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED\r\nFROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CONVECTION TO ITS EAST THAT OCCURRED\r\nOVERNIGHT.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 0820Z MISSED MOST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION BUT DID INDICATE SOME 35 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  HOWEVER... AT THAT\r\nTIME THE CONVECTION WAS DEEPER AND MORE INVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER THAN IT HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... SO IT IS\r\nPROBABLY SAFE TO ASSUME THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO FALLEN TO 30 KT.  IRENE IS\r\nTHEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS.  A\r\nLIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS RESUMED JUST EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS IS THE START OF A\r\nCOMEBACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS INTERDEPENDENT TO SOME\r\nDEGREE...BUT FOR IRENE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 3-5 DAY PERIOD...ONE\r\nCOULD AFFECT THE OTHER PERHAPS MORE SO THAN USUAL.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  BASED ON A IRENE REMAINING WEAKER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN\r\nTHE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS SCENARIO IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL...ECMWF...AND BAM SHALLOW SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 22.4N  50.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N  52.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  54.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  56.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.6N  58.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 29.0N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 31.0N  67.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-08-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS PERSISTED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER THIS AFTERNOON... OFTEN EMANATING FROM THE CENTER ITSELF. \r\nHOWEVER... THE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT.  ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE IN A LIMITED AREA WITHIN\r\nTHE SPARSE CONVECTION... IRENE IS MAINTAINED AS 30 KT DEPRESSION\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO REORGANIZE WITHIN A\r\nFAIRLY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\nTHESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SLOW TO CHANGE ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK... AND ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 45 KT BY 60 HOURS...CONTINUING ON TO 62 KT BY 120\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER... THE GFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHIN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE AND REMAIN SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... SHOWING MODEST AND GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nWHEN THE CONVECTION REDEVELOPED THIS MORNING... THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nSLOWED DOWN IN RESPONSE.  SMOOTHING THROUGH THE STOP-AND-GO MOTION\r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY... AND THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK NOW\r\nSINCE SOME OF THE MODELS THAT WERE EASTERN OUTLIERS THIS MORNING...\r\nSUCH AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS... HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD. \r\nTHEREFORE... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM\r\nOF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THE SLOW MOTION SHOWN AT THE END OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS INDICATIVE OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 22.5N  51.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  53.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 23.6N  55.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 24.3N  57.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 25.1N  59.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 27.0N  63.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 29.5N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  67.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-08-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 08 2005\r\n \r\nIRENE CONTINUES TO LOOK INSIGNIFICANT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND\r\nSHOWS NO INDICATIONS OF RESTRENGTHENING ANY TIME SOON.  THE\r\nLOW-CLOUD CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS BANDING FEATURES.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BEING SHEARED BY WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  ALSO...DROPSONDE DATA FROM A\r\nSAHARAN AIR LAYER RESEARCH MISSION WITH THE NOAA G-IV JET CONFIRM\r\nTHAT IRENE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY DRY MID- TO UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC AIR.  AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO ENTER A\r\nWEAKER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SINCE THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE SHOWN\r\nIN THE FORECAST. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  IRENE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN MORE\r\nNORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR BERMUDA.  HOWEVER THERE ARE\r\nSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OF OPINION AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO\r\nTHE CONFIGURATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AT DAYS 4-5.  BY THAT TIME IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH\r\nDAY 3 AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTERWARDS...BUT NOT AS FAR\r\nEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 22.6N  52.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  54.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 23.7N  56.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  59.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  61.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 28.0N  64.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N  65.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 32.0N  65.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-08-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF IRENE'S MOSTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION.  WHILE THERE MAY WELL BE 35\r\nKT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM AT THIS MOMENT...I WOULD PREFER TO SEE THIS\r\nCONVECTION PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER BEFORE RE-UPGRADING IRENE TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  THE 6Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 25-30\r\nKT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nIRENE IS PRESENTLY MOVING PAST A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WITH THE RIDGE CURRENTLY WELL ESTABLISHED AT MID- TO UPPER\r\nLEVELS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN IS IMPARTING\r\nA NORTHERLY FLOW OF VERY DRY AIR AT UPPER LEVELS OVER IRENE THAT IS\r\nHINDERING DEVELOPMENT.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS UPPER FLOW\r\nSHOULD TRANSITION TO SOUTHEASTERLIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS IRENE MOVES CLOSER TO...AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW\r\nCURRENTLY NEAR 30N/73W.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THIS STRENGTHENING IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY LESS THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH\r\nBRINGS IRENE TO NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH IN FIVE DAYS.  AN\r\nOPPOSING VIEW IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH DISSIPATES\r\nIRENE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  AS IRENE HAS PERSERVERED THROUGH AN\r\nENVIRONMENT SEEMINGLY MORE HOSTILE THAN WHAT IT IS CURRENTLY\r\nEMBEDDED IN...I AM GETTING LESS HOPEFUL ABOUT THE DISSIPATION\r\nOPTION. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nAND/OR SPLIT AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ALL OF THESE\r\nMODELS SHOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND THESE MODELS ALL LIFT\r\nIRENE...OR ITS REMNANTS...NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS\r\nTROUGH.  THE 00Z RUNS OF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...HOWEVER...\r\nLEAVE IRENE TO LINGER BEHIND AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. \r\nTHERE IS ALSO A CURIOUS SEPARATION BETWEEN THE SINGLE-LAYER BAM\r\nMODELS AND THE MULTI-LEVEL GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE BAM MODELS ALL\r\nSHOWING A MORE STRAIGHT-LINE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nFIVE DAY PERIOD.  AMONG THE BAM MODELS...THE SHALLOW BAM HAS THE\r\nMOST NORTHERLY TRACK...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS ALSO SLOWER AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLIES CLOSE TO THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW BAM FOR THE FIRST 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 22.5N  53.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N  55.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  57.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 23.9N  59.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 25.2N  61.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 27.5N  64.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 30.0N  66.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IRENE WITH THE\r\nSYSTEM LOOKING BETTER THAN IT DID 6 HOURS AGO.  WOULD PREFER TO SEE\r\nA LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION TO THE CONVECTION BEFORE UPGRADING IRENE\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 30 KTS.\r\n\r\nIRENE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT\r\nUPPER LEVELS WITH A TROF CURRENTLY IN PLACE TO THE NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE SYSTEM.  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE MOTION OF\r\nIRENE WILL BRING IT FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nAN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N AND 64W.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR.  THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT 36HRS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. THE 0000 UTC ECMWF...NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS ARE ALL IN THE SAME BALLPARK WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM\r\nTAKING IT GENERALLY ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WITH TIME\r\nWITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD TREND NOTED.  THE GFS WAS QUITE THE OPPOSITE\r\nSHOWING THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS IT TOOK A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nTRACK.  WILL LEAN STRONGLY TOWARDS THE FORMER SOLUTION AND FOR NOW\r\nBE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE MODEL\r\nDIFFERENCES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM ON A MORE\r\nWESTERLY COURSE THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMODEL TREND.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KORTY\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 22.3N  53.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 22.7N  55.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 23.6N  57.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  60.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 26.3N  62.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 27.7N  64.6W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 29.1N  66.2W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 30.0N  67.1W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT IRENE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING A METAMORPHOSIS.  THE CLOUD STRUCTURE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC...CIRRUS OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM IT IS MORE DIVERGENT\r\n...AND THERE ARE OCCASIONAL SIGNS OF BANDING. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS\r\nEARLIER...IRENE IS CERTAINLY BETTER ORGANIZED. ALL SATELLITE\r\nAGENCIES EXCEPT AFWA ARRIVED AT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  ON THIS BASIS...IRENE IS KEPT A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES CONCERNING THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...BUT POSITION ESTIMATES YIELD A SIX HOUR MOTION OF\r\n280/8.  IN THE SHORT TERM...IRENE MAY NOT REGAIN ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE VERTICALLY COUPLED.  THUS IT WILL LIKELY ASSUME\r\nA HEADING AND SPEED MORE COMPARABLE WITH THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PROBLEMATIC. OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...THE 12Z ECWMF AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATE THAT IRENE WILL\r\nMOVE UNDERNEATH A MID LEVEL RIDGE LYING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\n...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE 12Z UKMET SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROF ERODING THE RIDGE\r\nENOUGH TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON THE EVOLVING LONGWAVE\r\nPATTERN IN THE MID LATITUDES LATER ON IN THE FORECAST. \r\nSPECIFICALLY...A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER ALASKA AND AN AMPLIFICATION OF\r\nA DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL\r\nDETERMINE HOW ROBUST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW\r\nLONG IT STAYS IN PLACE.  AT THIS TIME...GIVEN THE GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE LONGWAVE PATTERN IN THE NCEP AND ECWMF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS\r\nWHICH DEPICT A CLOSED ANTICYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nAT THAT RANGE...THE TRACK OF IRENE HAS BEEN SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH\r\nAND WEST.\r\n\r\nAFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF ENDURING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH A SHARP UPPER TROF TO ITS NORTHEAST...MODELS\r\nGENERALLY AGREE THAT IRENE WILL ENTER A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT.  THEY FORECAST THE SHEAR VECTOR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO SHIFT FROM A NORTHWESTERLY TO EAST AND BECOME WEAKER\r\nWITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THIS TIME...IRENES POSITION SOUTH OF\r\nTHE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION IS VERY MUCH IN LINE\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 22.6N  54.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 22.7N  55.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 23.4N  57.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 24.7N  59.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 25.7N  60.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  62.6W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 28.0N  65.4W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 29.0N  68.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 09 2005\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IRENE APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF RE-INTENSIFYING\r\nEARLIER TODAY...THAT TREND HAS NOT CONTINUED...AND AT THE MOMENT THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE DISORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THE THE CYCLONE IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MOSTLY NORTHERLY\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...THERE HAS BEEN A PLUME OF OUTFLOW CIRRUS\r\nEMANATING NORTHWARD FROM IRENE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHERLY\r\nFLOW...WHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE DISRUPTING THE SYSTEM...IS IN A\r\nLAYER BELOW THE OUTFLOW LEVEL.  EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A MARGINAL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...IF IRENE SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nIS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  HENCE THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR STRENGTHENING.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST SHIPS\r\nAND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS...BUT IS NEVERTHELESS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN CENTER FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS\r\nAGENCIES.  A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS OF LITTLE HELP IN LOCATING\r\nTHE CENTER.  INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 280/9.  DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nWITHIN 12-24 HOURS AND A CONTINUATION OF THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\n1-2 DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE BUILDING NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN 3-5 DAYS.  A BIG QUESTION IS...HOW WILL\r\nIRENE RESPOND TO THIS RIDGE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD?  THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS HIGHLY CREDIBLE...HAS\r\nGENERALLY BEEN TO THE LEFT OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS\r\nHAD QUITE LOW TRACK ERRORS FOR IRENE...THUS FAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS FAR\r\nWEST AS THE ECMWF...OR THE NAVY VERSION OF THE GFDL...I.E. THE\r\nGFDN.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.  SUBSTANTIAL\r\nSLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS ALSO A\r\nREFLECTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE IRENE WILL BE HEADED BY\r\nTHAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 22.4N  55.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 23.0N  57.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 24.0N  59.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 25.0N  61.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N  63.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  66.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 29.0N  69.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 30.0N  71.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE THAT IRENE STILL HAS A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION.  AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LAST NIGHT'S\r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES COULD NOT DEFINE A CENTER...AND THE LOW CLOUD\r\nLINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS\r\nELONGATING AND LIKELY HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. IF THERE\r\nIS A CENTER...IT IS PROBABLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT ADVISORY POSITION\r\nIN THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF 22N.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS PRUDENT TO WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATING OR RELOCATING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE\r\nPRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.  IF IRENE\r\nSURVIVES...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nGRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR LESS DEVELOPMENT\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF THIS DISORGANIZED SYSTEM IS HARD TO DETERMINE\r\nBUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/10.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR\r\nBERMUDA TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRENE.  THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT TO TAKE IRENE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND THEN NORTHWEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY SLIDE THIS\r\nHIGH EASTWARD.  THE SIMPLER BAM MODELS DO NOT HAVE THE NORTHWEST\r\nTURN.  OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD A\r\nSIGNIFICANT RIGHT BIAS WHILE THE BAMS HAVE PERFORMED RELATIVELY\r\nWELL.  GIVEN THE PRESENT WESTWARD MOTION AND THESE BIASES...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AND IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE MEDIUM BAM.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 22.4N  57.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 22.9N  59.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 23.7N  61.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.6N  63.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.7N  65.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 27.0N  68.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 28.5N  70.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 30.0N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nCOMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. IT IS STILL DIFFICULT...HOWEVER...TO\r\nDETERMINE AN EXACT CENTER LCOATION...ESPECIALLY IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...A 24-HOUR\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...AND TRMM AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A 0912Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS INTIMATED THAT A LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH NEAR 21N...BUT I PREFER TO REMAIN FARTHER NORTH NEAR THE\r\nBETTER DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS FOR SOME\r\nPOSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...EVEN THOUGH THE LONGER TERM\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN 270/08. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY\r\nDISPLAYED A 20-30 DEGREE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 48 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THE MODELS HAVE KEPT IRENE WEAK OR\r\nHAVE EVEN DISSIPATED IT...ALL THE WHILE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW\r\nHAS BEEN KEEPING THE CYCLONE FARTHER SOUTH ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS STILL INDICATE A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nLOCATED FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. EASTWARD ACROSS BERMUDA WITH\r\nDEEP NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. SO IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLE...\r\nBARRING ANY NORTHWARD REDEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BY\r\nDAYS 4-5...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...WITH A HIGH\r\nCENTER SHIFTING EASTWARD TO NEAR BERMUDA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW\r\nIRENE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS ON THE EXTREME LEFT...OR SOUTH ...SIDE OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IF A WESTWARD MOTION CONTINUES TODAY AND\r\nTHE CENTER DOES NOT REFORM FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE TRACK WILL HAVE\r\nTO BE SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS\r\nOR SO. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER IS PRODUCING SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR...\r\nAS WELL AS ADVECTING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THE WARM\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IRENE COULD\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 22.4N  57.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 22.8N  59.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 23.7N  61.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 24.6N  64.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 25.7N  66.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 27.2N  69.3W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 28.5N  71.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 31.5N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irene","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n \r\nIRENE'S CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE AND OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUE TO\r\nIMPROVE. HOWEVER...IT STILL REMAINS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AN EXACT\r\nLOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER....BUT IT IS BELIEVED TO BE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHERE A FEW NEW CELLS HAVE\r\nBEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM\r\nAFWA AND THE MOST RECENT ODT VALUES...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE IS VERY\r\nNEAR REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...UNTIL SOME CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION PERSISTS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nESPECIALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS...HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD\r\nSHIFT SINCE 06Z. IN FACT...THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODEL HAS\r\nMADE A 450 NMI WESTWARD SHIFT AT 120 HOURS. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL\r\nIS THE UKMET ...WHICH INSISTS THAT IRENE WILL PLOW NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS SOLUTION\r\nWAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN THE 5950 METER 500 MB HEIGHTS AT BERMUDA AND A\r\nWEST WIND OF 10 KT...WHICH SUGGESTS THE HIGH CENTER IS SOUTHWEST OF\r\nBERMUDA AND DIRECTLY IN THE PATH OF THE UKMET SOLUTION. EXCLUDING\r\nTHE UKMET MODEL...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH\r\nLESS THAN A 60 NMI SPREAD. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS\r\nDIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAY\r\n4. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE CANADIAN...ARE MUCH LESS\r\nROBUST WITH DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THIS\r\nSEEMS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH AND EAST-WEST\r\nEXTENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THE FACT THAT EACH MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nHIGHLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. SUCH FAST MOVING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TENDS\r\nNOT TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SHORTWAVES TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE LIKE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. THE GFDN MODEL IS THE\r\nFASTEST AND WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES IRENE TO NEAR THE SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST BY 120H...WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL BRINGS IRENE TO\r\nABOUT 90 NMI EAST OF THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND IS JUST AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINING AROUND\r\n10 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 26 PERCENT BY DAYS 4 AND 5. SSTS\r\nARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 29C ALONG THE TRACK...SO THE DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR WILL BE THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR. HOWEVER...\r\nHURRICANES CAN STILL FORM IN SUCH DRY CONDITIONS...AND THAT IS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONE THING\r\nTHAT THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD ENSURE IS THAT OUTER\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS WILL NOT EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER...WHICH SHOULD\r\nHELP TO KEEP IRENE A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SMALL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES TEND NOT TO PLOW THROUGH STRONG RIDGES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 22.8N  58.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 23.2N  60.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 24.1N  62.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 25.1N  65.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 26.1N  67.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 27.4N  69.6W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 29.5N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 32.0N  75.5W    70 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n\r\nIRENE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nEVENING.  A CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM\r\nWRAPS NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THIS\r\nSUPPORTS RE-UPGRADING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE\r\nSOUTH WHERE IT IS BEING IMPEDED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE STORM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW THAT THE NORTHERLY MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT HAD BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nABATING AND THAT IRENE IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF DECREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  AS USUAL...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY\r\nTIME FRAME HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OWING TO A LACK OF SKILL\r\nIN LONGER-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION.  \r\n\r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES FROM BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...FOR\r\nCONTINUITY'S SAKE...I HAVE ADJUSTED THE CURRENT MOTION ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...290/11.  THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE THAT\r\nCONCERNS US IS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING TO BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC\r\nSTATES IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS\r\nRIDGE WILL DRIVE IRENE TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  IT IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL AND\r\nTHE LATEST GFDL RUN...OR MOVE MORE WESTWARD AND REACH THE COAST AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND GFDN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL\r\nWELL TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 23.5N  59.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 24.2N  61.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 25.4N  63.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 26.3N  65.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 27.2N  67.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 28.5N  70.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W    70 KT\r\n\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY IMPROVING...WITH A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND IN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR MY ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nPOSITION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN ALSO APPEARS STRONG.\r\nHOWEVER...A GOOD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL HARD TO FIND...WITH 06Z\r\nFIXES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SPREAD BY ABOUT 90 NMI...AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE\r\nAN INHIBITING FACTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FORECASTING A GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWITH THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE NEAR 295/12. 00Z\r\nRAOB DATA AND GLOBAL ANALYSES SHOW A 500 MB SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS\r\nMOVING EASTWARD JUST OFF THE CAROLINAS...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCENTER JUST EAST OF BERMUDA. AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS OUT...HEIGHTS\r\nWILL BUILD NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND\r\nIRENE'S TRACK COULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD BEND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MID-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...AND THIS FLOW COULD TURN IRENE NORTHWARD BEFORE IT REACHES\r\nTHE COAST.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFDL...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS.  EVEN THE BAM MODELS...WHICH EARLIER HAD BEEN WELL\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NOW FAVOR A RECURVING TRACK\r\nOFFSHORE.  THE GFS...ALTHOUGH IT ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES\r\nIRENE...KEEPS ITS REMNANTS UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...AND THE GFDN ALSO\r\nTAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND.  THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\n4 AND 5 DAY POINTS AND IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO TELL WHAT KIND OF\r\nTHREAT IRENE COULD POSE FOR THE UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 24.2N  61.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 24.9N  62.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 26.0N  64.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  66.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 27.9N  68.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 29.5N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 34.0N  75.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WHILE BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO\r\nSOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUD LINES FEEDING INTO THE CYCLONE ALSO SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SURFACE CENTER MAY BE BROAD AND ELONGATED IN THE SAME\r\nDIRECTION. DETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION WAS WEIGHTED HEAVILY\r\nTOWARD A TIGHT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN 11/1052Z SSMI\r\nMICROWAVE DATA. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND RECENT ODT\r\nESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT.\r\n \r\nWHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15.\r\nIRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER THAN 15 KT...BUT SOME OF THAT\r\nAPPARENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN\r\nTHE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN\r\nHAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS\r\nWITH A HIGH CENTER LOCATED NEAR BERMUDA AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. AS IRENE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nINTO THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. BY 72\r\nHOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS RECURVING IRENE THROUGH THE RIDGE ALONG 70W...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nAND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS...HOWEVER...QUICKLY DISSIPATES\r\nIRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE\r\nRIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA\r\nAND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S\r\nCURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS GRADUALLY\r\nLIFTING OUT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE BERMUDA\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND WESTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP IRENE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL AND GFDN\r\nSOLUTIONS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THAT THE UPSTREAM\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS RATHER WEAK AND\r\nUNIMPRESSIVE AND MAY NOT WEAKEN THE RIDGE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST AS MUCH AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST.\r\n\r\nSSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 28.5C AND 29C...AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS\r\nTO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH 120 HOURS. SO THE ONLY INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE VERY DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE NAVIGATING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\n...AND THEN IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTER THAT WHEN THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DROP TO ABOUT 5 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE WARMER GULFSTREAM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 25.1N  62.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  64.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 27.2N  66.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  68.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 28.6N  69.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 30.4N  72.3W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 32.5N  74.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  75.0W    75 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF IRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS ELONGATED WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATION...BASED ON CURVED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES AND CONTINUITY...IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE CLOUD SHIELD AND NOT FARTHER EAST INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13...BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY\r\nAND AND PARTLY ON THE MODELS INDICATING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE MODEL FORECAST\r\nTRACKS OR THE MODELS' HANDLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF IRENE AND THE ALLEGED WEAKENING OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF\r\nTHE MODELS CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS\r\nERODE THE RIDGE AS A RESULT OF AMPLIFYING IRENE TO A SIZE NEARLY\r\nTHE SAME AS THAT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR\r\nBERMUDA...WHICH RESULTS IN IRENE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD ALONG\r\n70W LONGITUDE BY 72 HOURS. THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY...GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT SIZE AND STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AS NOTED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR DATA. THE GFS HAS CONTINUED ITS\r\nTREND OF DISSIPATING IRENE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND MAINTAINING AN EAST-\r\nWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM BERMUDA WESTWARD TO THE\r\nCAROLINAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND GFDN\r\nSOLUTIONS...WHICH MOVE IRENE FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE OUTER\r\nBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND DECREASE THE FORWARD SPEED TO ONLY 5\r\nKT AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WEAK STEERING CURRENTS LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT OFTENTIMES RESULTS IN ERRATIC MOTION...SO A POSSIBLE\r\nU.S. LANDFALL BY DAY 5 CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTH OF IRENE HAS BEEN ADVECTING DRY MID-LEVEL\r\nINTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE TODAY...WHICH HAS CAUSED\r\nTHE CONVECTION TO ERODE AND WEAKEN AT TIMES. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW HAS BEEN WEAKENING AND THAT THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THEREFORE...\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND\r\nIRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS THE PRIMARY INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS NOW DECREASED THE PEAK INTENSITY TO\r\nLESS THAN 70 KT DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW\r\nSURROUNDING THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO A STRONGER RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL SINCE THE\r\nGFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT HOLD ONTO IRENE AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nWHICH RESULTS IN AN ARTIFICIALLY STRONGER RIDGE IN THE GFS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 25.7N  63.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 26.7N  65.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 27.8N  67.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 28.5N  69.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 29.1N  70.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 31.0N  72.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 33.0N  73.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 35.0N  74.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE STORM AS SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGES.  IRENE\r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER ITS EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD AND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ENCOMPASSES A RATHER SMALL AREA.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 45 KT. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT IS WEAK BUT\r\nAPPEARS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN\r\nENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...ALL OF WHICH SHOW IRENE STRENGTHENING INTO\r\nA HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nLOCATING THE STORM CENTER REMAINS A CHALLENGE...ESPECIALLY WITH\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  THUS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...300/13...IS\r\nAN EDUCATED GUESS.  NWP MODELS SHOW A 500 MB HIGH BUILDING NEAR\r\nBERMUDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS IRENE APPROACHES THE RIDGE...\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN...SO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE GFDL\r\nAND GFDN ARE NOW SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND ARE ON THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL SUITE.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE AND NOGAPS\r\nSOLUTIONS SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN...AS DOES THE GFS.  HOWEVER THE\r\nLATTER MODEL ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED BY 72 HOURS. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.\r\n\r\nFIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nBOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK\r\nABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 26.4N  64.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 27.3N  66.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 28.3N  67.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 29.0N  69.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 29.8N  70.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 31.5N  72.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 33.0N  73.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  74.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE WINDSAT...DMSP...NOAA...AND TRMM\r\nSATELLITES BETWEEN 2201Z AND 0335Z INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nIRENE IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION.  THE WINDSAT AND TRMM DATA SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nINCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THE\r\nIMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/13.  IRENE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE WITH A CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n26N74W.  A DEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXISTS NEAR 32N70W DUE\r\nTO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH.  IRENE IS CURRENTLY\r\nHEADING FOR THE WEAKNESS...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO\r\nFILL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE BIG QUESTION IS WILL IRENE\r\nRECURVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS BEFORE IT FILLS.  ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM WILL RECURVE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED\r\nSTATES EXCEPT FOR THE OUTLIER GFDN...WHICH CALLS FOR A LANDFALL IN\r\nNORTH CAROLINA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES...CALLING FOR IRENE TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER\r\n48-72 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 120 HR.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK CALLS FOR A SLIGHT LEFT TURN DURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR IN\r\nANTICIPATION OF RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH.  OVERALL...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK....AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE\r\nOF GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nIRENE HAS DEVELOPED GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS NOW IN A LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE IN 24-48 HR.  MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR COULD STILL BE A\r\nPROBLEM FOR DEVELOPMENT...AS COULD BE AN EDDY OF COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH 75 KT IN 48 HR...THEN LEVEL OFF IN\r\nINTENSITY AS IT PASSES OVER THE EDDY.  IRENE SHOULD MOVED OVER\r\nWARMER SSTS AGAIN AFTER 72 HR...BUT HOW MUCH VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE\r\nPRESENT AT THAT TIME IS UNCERTAIN.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFIVE-DAY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS HAVE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nBOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK\r\nABOUT SPECIFIC THREATS TO THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...\r\nESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 27.6N  65.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 28.5N  66.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 29.4N  68.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 30.1N  69.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  70.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 33.0N  71.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 36.0N  72.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY. THERE IS A LOW-LEVEL CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF IRENE.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE REACHED 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...A\r\nMORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF IRENE\r\nWILL BE KNOWN WHEN AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHES THE CYCLONE LATER\r\nTODAY. THIS IS THE FIRST FLIGHT INTO IRENE. THE SHEAR AHEAD OF\r\nIRENE IS FORECAST TO BE LOW..AND THAT SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER A POCKET OF\r\nRELATIVELY COOL WATERS LEFT BY FRANKLIN AND HARVEY. SO\r\nINTENSIFICATION BEYOND CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT\r\nANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. \r\n\r\nIRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS\r\nAROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES\r\nEASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN\r\nA SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 3 DAYS AND IN\r\nFACT...IRENE COULD BEGIN MEANDERING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MANY\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOW BASICALLY VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW\r\nNEAR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST POSITION OF IRENE. EVENTUALLY...A\r\nWESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED WHICH SHOULD TURN\r\nTHE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE US COAST. THAT IS STILL TOO FAR IN THE\r\nFUTURE TO BE CERTAIN.      \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 28.3N  66.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 29.2N  68.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  69.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N  70.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  71.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  72.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  71.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING IRENE CONFIRMED EARLIER SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC. THE RECON MEASURED 64 KNOTS AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 997 MB. IT ALSO REPORTED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION. BOTH SHEAR\r\nAND SST ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT SINCE NO GUIDANCE\r\nBRINGS IRENE ABOVE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...ONLY SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEERED\r\nBY THE FLOW AROUND A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE\r\nRIDGE MOVES EASTWARD...IRENE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. IN FACT...IRENE COULD\r\nBEGIN TO MEANDER FOR A WHILE. THEREAFTER...THE WESTERLIES ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THIS FLOW SHOULD TAKE IRENE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. THIS LESSENS THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO THE\r\nUNITED STATES EAST COAST. A HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET IS CURRENTLY\r\nSAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT. THE DATA WILL GO INTO  TONIGHT'S MODEL\r\nRUNS.\r\n \r\nNOTE: JUST AFTER THE COORDINATION CALL THE PLANE REPORTED A PEAK\r\nWIND OF 75 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nTO 60 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 28.7N  67.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.4N  68.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 30.8N  70.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N  70.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 34.0N  70.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 36.0N  70.4W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 37.1N  70.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 39.0N  64.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON REPORT AND 00Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\n...IRENE'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT. A 12/2245Z SSMI\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED A SHARP DRY SLOT HAD PUSHED INTO THE CIRCULATION\r\nFROM THE NORTH...ALL THE WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND A CDO FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 991 MB BASED ON A\r\n12/2300Z PRESSURE OF 995.9 MB REPORTED BY BUOY 41927 LOCATED ABOUT\r\n30 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS LOWER THAN THE LAST\r\nRECON REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AT 12/2023Z. \r\n \r\nTHE BEST MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/09...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE RECON FIX MOTION. A NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN CONDUCTING SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE\r\nMISSIONS AROUND IRENE THIS EVENING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THOSE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE WESTWARD EXTENSION\r\nOF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING FOR\r\n13/00Z...WITH THE UKMET HAVING THE CLOSEST VERIFICATION. THE RIDGE\r\n...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT NARROW...EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA WESTWARD TO\r\nNORTH CAROLINA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED EASTWARD OFF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST AND A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY IS\r\nMOVING EASTWARD TO TAKE THE PLACE OF THAT TROUGH. IN THE SHORT TERM\r\n...THIS SHOULD BUILD OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN THE EXISTING RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF IRENE...WHICH MAY CAUSE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL THE MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT IRENE WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE RIDGE BETWEEN 70-72W LONGITUDE...AND THEN TURN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN MORE RIDGE SHOWING\r\nUP IN THE SYNOPTIC DROPSONDE DATA...THERE MAY BE A WESTWARD SHIFT\r\nIN THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. FOR THIS ADVISORY...THOUGH...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nBRIEF PERIODS OF INTENSIFICATION WILL PROBABLY OCCUR THROUGH AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...DESPITE WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C\r\nAND FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO\r\nTHE VERY DRY AIR THAT IRENE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AND CONSTANTLY\r\nHAVING TO MIX OUT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH\r\nWEAKENS IRENE TO LESS THAN 30 KT IN 48H.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 29.2N  68.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 29.9N  69.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.4N  70.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 33.0N  70.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 34.6N  70.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 36.7N  70.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 38.0N  67.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 39.0N  61.5W    75 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":35,"Date":"2005-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nA DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 04Z... AND THE COLDEST\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN LESS THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER JUST NORTH\r\nOF THIS DEEP CONVECTION... AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n69 KT WITHIN IT... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KT.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE A BIT HIGHER\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... 997 MB.  DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE\r\nUNANIMOUSLY 3.5/55 KT.  WHILE THERE ARE NO HARD NUMBERS TO SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT... I WILL DO SO BASED ON THE\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE IS\r\nSTILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... BUT A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT\r\n320/9.  IRENE IS BEING STEERED AROUND A NEARBY DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER BERMUDA.  DATA FROM LAST NIGHT'S SYNOPTIC\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE LED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES TO EITHER THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OR THE FORECASTS FROM THE\r\nVARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT IRENE WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 72 HOURS.  NONE OF THE\r\nMODELS INDICATE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. \r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ADJUSTMENT AND TO A SLIGHT EASTWARD TREND\r\nIN THE MODEL TRACKS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS. \r\nIT IS ALSO FASTER SINCE IRENE IS GAINING LATITUDE MORE QUICKLY NOW\r\nAND WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND BEGIN ACCELERATING ON DAY 4... AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS EXCEPT THE LEFT-OUTLYING GFDN.\r\n\r\nSINCE IRENE IS STILL ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE... IT COULD\r\nDO SO AT ANY TIME.  THE SHIPS PEAKS AT 63 KT IN 72 HOURS... WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL PEAKS NEAR 80 KT AROUND THAT SAME TIME.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH SHIPS.  SINCE\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER... IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH\r\nCOOLER WATERS SOONER... SO A WEAKENING TREND IS INTRODUCED AT THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST... IN ACCORDANCE WITH BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 30.1N  68.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  69.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.6N  69.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 34.2N  69.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 36.0N  69.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 38.0N  66.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 39.5N  62.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 41.5N  54.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":36,"Date":"2005-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN WAS SHAPELESS AND CONSISTED\r\nOF A BLOB OF CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW\r\nPRIMARILY TO THE WEST. SINCE THEN...LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES\r\nSHOW A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN.  HOWEVER...IRENE HAS\r\nBEEN A PECULIAR CYCLONE THAT HAS NEVER HAD A PERSISTENT SYMMETRIC\r\nCLOUD PATTERN. THE INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER BUT THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT 60 KNOT WINDS. THEREFORE...INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKS\r\nIRENE LATER TODAY. HOPEFULLY THERE WILL BE NO SURPRISES.  SHIPS\r\nMODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM BUT\r\nBECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER HOSTILE...SHIPS IS NOT\r\nSHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE SAME GOES FOR THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT\r\nSHOW AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS UNTIL IRENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES AT HIGHER LATITUDES...PROBABLY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE BUT IT IS ONLY AN INCREASE OF 5 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS\r\nOF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 30.7N  69.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.8N  70.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 35.5N  69.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 37.6N  68.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 39.6N  64.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 42.0N  58.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 45.1N  49.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":37,"Date":"2005-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IRENE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN A STEADY AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN DURING ITS LIFETIME.\r\nONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED BUT REMAINS VERY VIGOROUS. IN\r\nFACT...THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 70 KNOTS AT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS\r\nBEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1000 AND 999 MB SINCE 1500 UTC. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS AND...ALTHOUGH THE WATER IS WARM AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS LOW...THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS HOSTILE AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THEREFORE...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN SO IRENE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBY 120 HOURS OVER THE COOLER WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 31.2N  69.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N  70.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 34.5N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 36.5N  69.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 38.5N  66.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 40.5N  60.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 43.5N  53.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":38,"Date":"2005-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nWITH A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED OVER AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 13/2232Z SSMI\r\nOVERPASS DEPICTED A LARGE BUT CLOSED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS\r\n...BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE STILL OPEN TO THE\r\nNORTH. THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT...\r\nSO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN\r\nINTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER.\r\nIF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...THEN THE NEXT RECON\r\nFLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS. IRENE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA\r\nRIDGE AND IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE BY MONDAY AS THE CYCLONE GETS\r\nCAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES THAT LIE ACROSS\r\nTHE NORTHERN U.S. AND NORTH ATLANTIC. BY 96 HOURS...A DEEP-LAYER\r\nMID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE\r\nTHE THEN EXTRATROPICAL IRENE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FAR NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nFASTER AND TO THE LEFT AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE SSMI IMAGERY\r\nAND THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...IRENE COULD BECOME A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES ONTO AND NORTH OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE AXIS\r\nWHERE THE STEERING FLOWS SHOULD BECOME MORE ALIGNED AND REDUCE THE\r\nSHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 32.0N  69.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 35.6N  69.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 37.4N  67.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 38.7N  64.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 41.0N  58.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 45.0N  50.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 55.0N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":39,"Date":"2005-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n\r\nIRENE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS AS COLD AS\r\nALMOST -80C.  HOWEVER... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS NOT STRENGTHENING... AND IN\r\nFACT IT HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.  THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS HAVE BEEN 62 KT... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999\r\nMB.  ALSO... DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 TO 3.5.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT.  THE STORM COULD STILL REGAIN A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTH... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER INDICATES IT\r\nREACHING HURRICANE STATUS.  THIS FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT WHILE IRENE SLID A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST LATE LAST NIGHT... IT HAS NOW ESTABLISHED A NEARLY DUE NORTH\r\nMOTION AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  IRENE IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING\r\nAND THE NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nONLY A LITTLE BIT FASTER.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IRENE WILL\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND THEN MERGE WITH A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 32.6N  70.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 34.1N  69.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 36.1N  68.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 37.7N  65.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 38.9N  62.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 41.5N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 47.5N  46.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":40,"Date":"2005-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n\r\nIRENE IS EXHIBITING A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH\r\nWELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH\r\nSOUTHWEST.  MEASUREMENT OF THE BANDING USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nEASILY SUPPORTS A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT...IN\r\nTERMS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD NOT\r\nINHIBIT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE RAPIDLY AS THE\r\nSTORM MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THEREFORE IRENE HAS A SMALL\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.  ONE MORE AERIAL\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO IRENE IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z TODAY TO\r\nCHECK THE POSITION AND INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HEADING HAS BENT A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT AND CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...\r\n020/10.  IRENE HAS CROSSED THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nBEGUN RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nBY 3 DAYS THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...AND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF IRENE SHOULD MERGE WITH A LARGER\r\nBAROCLINIC SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 33.6N  69.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 35.1N  69.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 37.0N  67.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 38.6N  64.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 39.7N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 42.5N  54.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 49.5N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":41,"Date":"2005-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n\r\nTHERE WERE 2 AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INVESTIGATING IRENE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED\r\nTO 992 MB AND THE HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 72 KNOTS. \r\nTHESE DATA INDICATE THAT IRENE IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS THE BEST ORGANIZED IT HAS\r\nEVER BEEN...WITH A FAINT EYE FEATURE AND GOOD SYMMETRY TO THE CDO. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  SINCE IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULF STREAM\r\nWATERS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT MAY VERY WELL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY...BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO\r\nINCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGE IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...020/10.  IRENE HAS MOVED NORTH\r\nOF THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS\r\nAS A 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHES FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.  SOME OF\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND\r\nTHERE HAS PROBABLY CAUSED SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS...AND CONTINUITY.  IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND MERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 34.5N  69.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 35.7N  68.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 37.1N  66.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 38.4N  64.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 39.5N  61.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 43.0N  54.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 52.0N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":42,"Date":"2005-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ON A TEST FLIGHT\r\nMEASURED STRONG ENOUGH WINDS AT 850 MB TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING IRENE\r\nTO A HURRICANE. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 88 KT...WHICH IN FACT\r\nCORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 70 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND THAT IS THE\r\nASSIGNED ADVISORY INTENSITY. IRENE HAS GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THE WESTERLIES ARE BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT. IRENE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS FOR ANOTHER 24\r\nHOURS OR SO...AND SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SHARPLY AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME AS WELL. IRENE IS LIKELY TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND\r\nMERGE WITH A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10. IRENE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND WILL SOON BE DEFLECTED TO THE RIGHT BY THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE FLOW IS FAIRLY ZONAL HOWEVER...AND IF IRENE TURNS\r\nSHARPLY TO THE RIGHT IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE WHILE FOR ANY RAPID\r\nACCELERATION TO OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A MODEST\r\nACCELERATION UNTIL A SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIATION IN THE SPEED OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NOT NEARLY THAT FAST...BUT IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nIRENE BECOMES THE SEASON'S THIRD HURRICANE.  THE NORMAL NUMBER OF\r\nHURRICANES FORMED BY THIS DATE IS ONE.  ONLY ONE YEAR...1966...\r\nHAD MORE HURRICANES FORMED BY THIS POINT IN THE SEASON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 35.3N  69.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 36.4N  67.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 37.6N  65.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 38.8N  62.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 40.0N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 45.0N  51.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 54.0N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":43,"Date":"2005-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nIRENE REMAINS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT OCCUPIES\r\nMOST THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... AND THE HURRICANE IS TAKING ADVANTAGE\r\nOF THIS ENVIRONMENT BY SUSTAINING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION THAT\r\nHAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT\r\nFROM SAB... AND A 3-HR AVERAGE ODT ESTIMATE ALSO YIELDS 77 KT.\r\nBASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE COMPARED TO A FEW HOURS\r\nAGO... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED... ASIDE FROM SOME\r\nRESTRICTION TO THE NORTHWEST SINCE THE HURRICANE IS APPROACHING THE\r\nMIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE. THESE WESTERLIES WILL SOON BE IMPARTING SHEAR ON THE\r\nHURRICANE... SO THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING SHOULD CLOSE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS... AND THIS SHOULD BE\r\nFOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nPEAKS AT 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL... THEN\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS WEAKENING TREND... EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL INSISTS\r\nON FURTHER STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 90 KT BEFORE IRENE REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS.\r\n \r\nIRENE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED\r\nNEAR BERMUDA... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/10. THIS\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FLATTEN OUT AS IRENE\r\nMOVES TO ITS NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... RESULTING IN MORE\r\nZONAL WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD TURN IRENE MORE TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATING AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE GFS REMAINS THE\r\nFAST OUTLIER... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALONG THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IRENE WOULD PASS OVER THE NORTH WALL OF\r\nTHE GULF STREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN THEREAFTER AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 36.1N  68.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 37.0N  66.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 38.1N  63.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 39.3N  60.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 41.3N  57.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 47.5N  48.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 56.0N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":44,"Date":"2005-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n\r\nIRENE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...AND ALTHOUGH NO EYE WAS EVIDENT ON\r\nTHE GEOSYNCHRONOUS IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...IT MAY APPEAR\r\nSOON.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ABOUT 75\r\nKNOTS...AND THAT IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE\r\nIS RATHER CLOSE TO A BELT OF MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES...JUST TO ITS\r\nNORTH...AND SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER SHEAR.  HOWEVER IRENE HAS TURNED\r\nSOMEWHAT MORE EASTWARD...AND THIS MAY DELAY SLIGHTLY THE INCREASE\r\nIN SHEAR.    HENCE A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS POSSIBLE WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  BY 48 HOURS...IRENE SHOULD HAVE PASSED\r\nTHE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS LIKELY TO BEGIN LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN\r\nTHROUGH 96 HOURS BUT GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IRENE'S\r\nEXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM COMING OFF THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES IN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 050/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  NOT MUCH CHANGE IS SEEN IN THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  \r\nIRENE WILL SOON BE ACCELERATED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  SHOULD IRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS BE\r\nMAINTAINED AS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THEY WILL LIKELY TURN MORE TO THE\r\nLEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB\r\nTROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 36.5N  67.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 37.4N  65.3W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 38.5N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 40.0N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 42.0N  56.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 49.0N  46.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 57.0N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":45,"Date":"2005-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n\r\nAN EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK\r\nANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY NEAR 80 KT.  THE HURRICANE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...EXCEPT TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE A LITTLE MORE TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY DUCKING THE BELT OF WESTERLIES AND\r\nMUCH STRONGER SHEAR THAT LIES TO ITS NORTH.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...WHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL FORECAST FIELDS...PREDICTS\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 35 KT WITHIN 36 HOURS.  WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  WITHIN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...IRENE IS FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A VIGOROUS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE.  SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...SUGGEST THAT\r\nIRENE'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS COULD MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM NEAR\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES AS SOON AS 48-72 HOURS FROM NOW.\r\n\r\nAS NOTED ABOVE...IRENE'S TRACK HAS BENT A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT\r\nAND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS NOW 070/10.  THERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED YET...BUT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN\r\nACCELERATING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS A\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...DUE TO AN APPROACHING 500 MB MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  BASED ON\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS FASTER\r\nTHAN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON\r\nINPUT FROM OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 36.7N  66.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 37.3N  64.0W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 38.4N  61.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 40.0N  58.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 43.0N  54.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 50.5N  43.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 58.0N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":46,"Date":"2005-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MOSTLY INDISTINCT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nEVENING...AND AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 23Z SHOWED THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED\r\nSLIGHTLY COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT\r\n80 KT.  THERE IS CURRENTLY NO OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS\r\nIRENE IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nBASED LARGELY ON THAT SSMI OVERPASS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 085/12...FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND FASTER THAN\r\nPREDICTED BY THE 18Z GUIDANCE MODELS.  IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE\r\nCURRENT GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ACCELERATION TREND...I WILL ONLY SLOW\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST A LITTLE BIT AND THE NEW FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  SHOULD IRENE TAKE A PATH FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN EXPECTED...IT COULD MOVE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nIRENE STILL HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER...BUT THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE BEFORE THEN.  THIS SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND...AND INDEED THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THIS TREND\r\nHAS ALREADY BEGUN.  WEAKENING WOULD LIKELY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST\r\nSHOULD IRENE TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  COOLER WATERS AND AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 36.6N  64.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 37.1N  62.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 38.2N  59.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 40.4N  56.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 43.5N  51.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 52.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 58.0N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":47,"Date":"2005-08-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...SEVERAL\r\nSSSMI...AMSU...AND TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL\r\nDEGRADATION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE FEATURES AND EYE\r\nSTRUCTURE. A DISTINCT EASTWARD TILT OF THE EYE WAS NOTED IN 0447Z\r\nAND 0625Z TRMM OVERPASSES...ALTHOUGH THE LATTER IMAGE SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT LESS TILTING OF THE EYE WAS OCCURRING AS COMPARED TO EARLIER\r\nPASSES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/77KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB. GIVEN THE RAGGED EYE APPEARANCE NOTED IN THE MICROWAVE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 BASED ON THE LAST 6 HOURS OF\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS. THE EASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO\r\nA SHORTWAVE CAUGHT UP IN THE FASTER WESTERLIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF\r\nIRENE THAT IS BYPASSING THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN WEAKER \r\nWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nJETSTREAM. HOWEVER...A MUCH STRONGER AND HIGHER AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT IRENE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE\r\nBY 48 HOURS. BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nSUB-24C SSTS...SO TRANSITION TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED. DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL EASTWARD MOTION WILL KEEP IRENE OVER WARMER WATER A\r\nLITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...BUT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nTHE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY OVERCOME ANY POSITIVE\r\nCONTRIBUTION FROM THE 28C SSTS. ONCE IRENE HITS THE ICY WATERS OF\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ANY REMAINING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS SHOULD QUICKLY DISAPPEAR. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A\r\nSTRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JETSTREAM APPROACHING...THE INCREASING\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD KEEP IRENE A RATHER POTENT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 36.7N  63.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 36.9N  62.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 37.8N  60.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 39.8N  56.7W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 44.6N  50.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 53.6N  37.8W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 59.0N  31.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":48,"Date":"2005-08-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL CCB\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005\r\n...CORRECTED TO REPLACE WORD EXTRACURRICULAR WITH EXTRATROPICAL...\r\nIRENE IS MAINTAINING INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS AN EYE HAS BEEN\r\nEVIDENT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES.  SSM/I IMAGERY ALSO\r\nSHOWS AN EYE...THAT IS CIRCULAR AND 20 N MI IN DIAMETER WITH A\r\nCLOSED WALL...ALBEIT A LITTLE WEAK OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A T-NUMBER OF 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS A\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT.  EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE LOOKS QUITE\r\nHEALTHY AT THE MOMENT...ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION\r\nWILL BRING THE SYSTEM INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF MUCH HIGHER SHEAR...\r\nGREATER THAN 30 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST... LIKE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING WITHIN 12-24\r\nHOURS AND THEN WEAKENS IRENE AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN\r\nPREDICTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT IRENE\r\nWILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. \r\nAFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MERGE\r\nWITH OR BECOME ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR\r\nSOUTHERN GREENLAND.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 080/9.  THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED ON\r\nA MORE EASTERLY TRACK THAN ANTICIPATED...IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS SOUTHEAST...RESULTING IN A MORE ZONAL\r\nSTEERING CURRENT THAN EXPECTED.  HOWEVER AS A 500 MB TROUGH MOVES\r\nINTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE LEFT...AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...IS ANTICIPATED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nGFS...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD INITIALIZATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 36.7N  62.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 37.2N  60.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 38.3N  58.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 41.0N  54.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 46.0N  48.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 55.0N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":49,"Date":"2005-08-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005\r\n\r\nTHE EYE BECAME BETTER DEFINED AND ITS EMBEDDED DISTANCE WITHIN THE\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS WAS LARGE ENOUGH TO YIELD A T NUMBER OF 5.0 AT\r\n18Z...CORRESPONDING TO 90 KNOTS.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED SOMEWHAT AND THE EYE BECAME LESS DISTINCT.  THEREFORE THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KNOTS.  IRENE'S CONTINUED EASTWARD\r\nTRACK HAS KEPT THE HURRICANE MOSTLY SHELTERED FROM THE STRONG BELT\r\nOF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N LATITUDE.  IT\r\nIS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH STRONGER\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE LOOKS SUSPECT...\r\nSINCE IT KEEPS IRENE AT HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH 48 HOURS...BY\r\nWHICH TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 37 KNOTS WITH A SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURE OF 15 DEG C.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nMORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING THAN SHIPS...BUT MAINTAINS A VIGOROUS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM OUT TO 72 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM\r\nIS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSOREBED BY...OR MERGE WITH...ANOTHER\r\nBAROCLINIC CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nIRENE HAS CONTINUED ITS UNEXPECTEDLY PROLONGED EASTWARD TRACK. \r\nHOWEVER...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR JAMES BAY WILL SOON BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD INTRODUCE\r\nA SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...AND INDUCE A\r\nLEFTWARD TURN IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER BECAUSE OF THE\r\nCONTINUED EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  BY 72 HOURS...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE\r\nINDIVIDUAL MODELS.  THEREFORE THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nLOCATION AT THAT FORECAST TIME.  BY THEN...HOWEVER...IRENE'S\r\nEXTRATROPICAL REMNANT MAY NO LONGER HAVE RETAINED ITS IDENTITY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 36.5N  61.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 37.2N  60.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 38.8N  57.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 42.0N  52.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 47.0N  46.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 56.0N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":50,"Date":"2005-08-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2005\r\n \r\nA WARM SPOT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE EVENING...ALTHOUGH OVERALL THE AMOUNT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED MARKEDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...AND THE\r\nPATTERN HAS DEGRADED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IN\r\nADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE MOISTURE IN\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nCOME DOWN TO 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. IRENE CONTINUES TO BE LARGELY SHELTERED FROM THE\r\nSTRONG BELT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT LIE NORTH OF ABOUT 38N\r\nLATITUDE. IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT IRENE WILL BE IMPACTED BY MUCH\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WESTERLIES WITHIN 12-24\r\nHOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE SHIPS 48 HOUR FORECAST\r\nOF A 68 KT HURRICANE OVER 15C WATER IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE. A\r\nBAROCLINIC KICK FROM THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nPROVINCE OF QUEBEC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS\r\nOF IRENE VIGOROUS UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/8.  IRENE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY\r\nEASTWARD SOUTH OF THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES.  AS THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES IRENE'S\r\nLONGITUDE...THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND IRENE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFDL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY...AND CORRECTLY...\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SOMEWHAT EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL...ESPECIALLY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 36.6N  60.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 37.1N  58.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 39.0N  55.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 43.3N  49.3W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":51,"Date":"2005-08-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF SSMI AND TRMM OVERPASSES CLEARLY INDICATE THAT\r\nIRENE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THAT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR HAS ERODED THE EYE FEATURE AND HAS TILTED IT\r\nEASTWARD OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY AT LEAST 30 NMI. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO COME DOWN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/7...EVEN THOUGH THE MOTION OVER\r\nTHE PAST 9 HOURS HAS BEEN 090/06.  A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nCOASTS IS INDUCING WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE\r\nSYSTEM...WHILE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS LAGGING BEHIND IN WEAKER\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND A BROAD FRONTAL LOW.\r\nHOWEVER...AS BOTH THE SHORTAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL LOW APPROACH\r\nIRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW.  ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N\r\nLATITUDE WHERE SSTS DROP OFF SHARPLY INTO THE 14-16C RANGE...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\nTHEREAFTER...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD HOOK UP WITH THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD\r\nGREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE NOW TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...\r\nIRENE WILL STILL BE OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\nTHIS MAY ALLOW FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER AND KEEP THE SYSTEM GOING AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...ONCE\r\nIRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-40 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A QUICK DEMISE\r\nTO THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 36.6N  60.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 37.7N  57.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 41.0N  52.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 46.7N  46.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 54.7N  39.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":52,"Date":"2005-08-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE\r\nAND IS NOW EXPERIENCING WESTERLY SHEAR. AN AVERAGE OF THE DATA T AND\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING\r\nDOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL 34 AND 50 KNOT\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0935 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 070/10...AND\r\nINDICATES SOME ACCELERATION OVER THE PREVIOUS AVERAGE 6 HOUR MOTION\r\nOF 080/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nHAS MOVED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COASTS AND IS\r\nSWEEPING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. THIS SAME FEATURE HAS ALSO\r\nINTRODUCED THE STRONG WESTERLY MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ON THE\r\nSYSTEM. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT\r\nAPPROACH IRENE FROM THE WEST...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY\r\nLOWER SSTS WITHIN 24 HOURS...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. SINCE THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST TRACK THE\r\nEXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED TO 36 HOURS. THIS MAY BE\r\nSOMEWHAT GENEROUS. BEYOND THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD\r\nHOOK UP WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE OFF TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 27-28C SSTS FOR ANOTHER\r\n18-24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12\r\nHOURS. ONCE IRENE MOVES NORTH OF 41N...THE MUCH COLDER WATER AND\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-35 KT SHOULD BRING ABOUT A \r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...IRENE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 37.1N  58.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 38.8N  55.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 43.0N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 50.5N  44.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 59.5N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":53,"Date":"2005-08-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON IRENE AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NO LONGER A HURRICANE. AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK NUMBERS FROM\r\nTHE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES ALSO SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INTENSITY\r\nTO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS PICKED UP TO 050/18...INDICATING\r\nTHAT THE ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES TO 28N68W THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD IRENE. AS THIS\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT SWEEPS OVER IRENE\r\nFROM THE WEST...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE FURTHER\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SHARPLY LOWER SSTS\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS...NORTH OF 41N LATITUDE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY\r\nDECOUPLE OVER THE COOLER WATERS AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM\r\nBY 24 HOURS...OR SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE\r\nANALYSIS WEB PAGE. BEYOND 24 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL IRENE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ACCELERATING IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE \r\nOFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD GREENLAND AND ICELAND. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS VIRTUALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OUT TO\r\n200 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM VESSEL\r\nELVX2.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 38.5N  56.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 41.1N  52.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 47.1N  46.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 55.5N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":54,"Date":"2005-08-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MOTION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF IRENE\r\nWAS GREATLY AIDED BY MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER MEASUREMENTS THIS\r\nEVENING.  A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2225Z INDICATED THAT IRENE HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING AT 060/17...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...AS THE CENTER BEGINS TO DISENGAGE FROM THE STILL STRONG\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS AT\r\n2150Z SHOWED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 60 KT...BUT THAT THE\r\nWIND RADII NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED INWARD.  IN PARTICULAR...THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS SHRINKING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS A FRONTAL\r\nZONE APPROACHES.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE GENERAL FORECAST\r\nTHINKING...WHICH HAS IRENE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nBECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS ALREADY TAKEN IRENE TOO\r\nQUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE GFS SHOWS IRENE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL\r\nZONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...BUT GIVEN PRESENT TRENDS IT MAY TAKE JUST\r\nA LITTLE LONGER FOR IRENE TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 38.8N  54.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 41.9N  50.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 48.0N  44.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":55,"Date":"2005-08-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nNOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS FULLY CAUGHT UP IN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/30. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED\r\nON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION\r\nFROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES BETWEEN 17/21Z\r\nAND 18/02Z. IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AT\r\nFORWARD SPEEDS OF 35-40 KT...OR HIGHER...THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID\r\nTRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 41.3N  51.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 46.0N  46.1W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 54.0N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":56,"Date":"2005-08-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2005\r\n\r\nIRENE HAS ACCELERATED FURTHER AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD NEAR\r\n40 KT.  ALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY FROM\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES...SUCH A FAST FORWARD MOTION WOULD SUPPORT 50 KT\r\nWINDS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE STORM IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW JUST EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND...INDICATING THAT IRENE\r\nIS TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  LATEST GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF IRENE WILL\r\nSOON BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER BAROCLINIC CYCLONE...AND SPREAD A\r\nLARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A PORTION OF THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nIRENE.  FUTURE INFORMATION...IF ANY...ON THIS SYSTEM MAY BE FOUND\r\nIN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 45.0N  47.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT\r\nDEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLANTIC...EAST\r\nOF THE LESSER ANTILLES... HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND BASED\r\nON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. \r\n\r\nCURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME\r\nCURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP\r\nUPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS\r\nTROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION\r\nTO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS\r\nDISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.\r\nDUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE\r\nAREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF 315\r\nDEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS WITH A POSSIBILITY OF A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTHERAFTER...AS A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  ON\r\nTHIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE NOAA BUOY 41041. THE\r\nDATA FROM THE BUOY WILL GIVE US A BETTER STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE\r\nOR IF EXISTS AT ALL.             \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 14.3N  44.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N  46.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N  47.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N  48.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N  52.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N  55.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nOCCURRED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON\r\nTHE APPEARN CE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM...WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA\r\nBUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE\r\nDEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS\r\nBASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR\r\nTHE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. A STAIR-STEP MAY OCCUR IN THE TRACK\r\nBETWEEN 48 AND 96 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AS\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY FILLS AND MOVES WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE TOWARD A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE IRENE-JUNIOR AS IT\r\nUNDERGOES SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR BENEATH THE OTHERWISE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THROW IN SOME DRY MID-LEVEL\r\nAIR AND YOU HAVE THE MAKINGS FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HOURS BY THE SHIPS MODEL\r\n...SO THE INTENSITY IT GRADUALLY INCREASED AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS\r\n...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE A 70-KT HURRICANE BY 120H. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 15.0N  45.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.8N  46.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.9N  47.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N  48.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.6N  50.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.3N  53.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 23.2N  57.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 25.0N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nA SHARP AND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS SHEARED THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nTHE POINT THAT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL SWIRL HAS CLEARLY EMERGED FROM\r\nWHAT IS LEFT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THIS LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN DRIFTING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST\r\n12 HOURS OR SO... BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST IT HAS BEGUN\r\nMOVING WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  THERE IS\r\nESSENTIALLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...  AND THE\r\nONLY NEARBY CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ABOUT 100 N MI DOWNSHEAR.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME CLOSER\r\nTO THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... THE DEPRESSION COULD\r\nLOSE ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER... AS IRENE DID...\r\nTHIS CYCLONE COULD PROVE TENACIOUS ENOUGH TO SURVIVE THE\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH COULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24-36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN MOVING AGAIN... IT SEEMS LIKELY IT\r\nWILL RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nWHILE ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.... AS AGREED UPON BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. \r\nEVEN IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH DURING THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS... AS INDICATED IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... EVEN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  IF THE SYSTEM\r\nSURVIVES... UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD... AND IT COULD STILL EVENTUALLY REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 13.6N  46.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.3N  47.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.4N  48.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  49.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N  54.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N  57.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N  60.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF\r\nTHE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT.  BECAUSE THE SYSTEM\r\nDOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER\r\nMEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE ADVISORIES\r\nARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY\r\nRELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nREGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY\r\nMONITORED.  \r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY\r\n320/6.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 13.8N  46.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-22 16:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nNOON EDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\nHAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n25 KT IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THE PRESUMPTION THAT THE CORE CIRCULATION WITHIN THE\r\nCONVECTION IS STILL BROAD.   UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS VERY STRONG AND\r\nTHE WATER IS WARM...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE VERY LONG\r\nOVER THE WATER TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. \r\nALTHOUGH NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES THIS\r\nSYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...I PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION IN\r\nFORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE BETTER INFORMATION ON THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1600Z 19.5N  95.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.7N  96.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 19.9N  97.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2... CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED FOR POTENTIAL EARLIEST 10TH... NOT 11TH... STORM\r\n\r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING THE DEPRESSION VERY\r\nSHORTLY TO HELP ASSESS THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  BASED ON SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY...AND\r\nHAS AN EXCELLENT OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT.  HOWEVER...ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK THE SYSTEM HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS OVER WATER.  THIS SHOULD BE\r\nENOUGH TIME TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION BECOME\r\nA TROPICAL STORM TODAY...IT WOULD BE THE EARLIEST FORMATION OF A\r\nSEASON'S 10TH STORM ON RECORD.  RAPID DISSIPATION SHOULD THEN\r\nFOLLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSOUTH OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS...AND THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD UNTIL IT\r\nDISSIPATED.  GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE THIS SYSTEM WELL...AND\r\nTHE GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nCONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND THE BAM OUTPUT...TAKING THE\r\nCYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE TIMING OF LANDFALL WOULD BE\r\nDELAYED...WITH MORE INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE...IF THE SYSTEM TOOK A\r\nPATH FARTHER NORTH THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH\r\nASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 19.6N  95.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.9N  96.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.1N  98.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-22 22:15:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n615 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST ON WHAT\r\nIS NOW TROPICAL STORM JOSE.  A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED MAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 54 KT... SUPPORTING ALMOST 45 KT AT THE SURFACE... WHICH\r\nIS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1002 MB.  ADDITIONALLY... THE POSITION OF THE\r\nCENTER REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT JOSE IS MOVING MORE\r\nSLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 280/5.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THIS MOTION WILL CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nOVERNIGHT WHILE THE STORM REMAINS OVER WATER. THE WIND RADII\r\nFORECAST... BASED IN PART ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA... NECESSITATES\r\nEXTENDING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.\r\n \r\nESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SLOWER MOTION... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2215Z 19.6N  95.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N  96.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N  97.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.1N  98.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED THE\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN A NOTCH TO 1001 MB.  HOWEVER...\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN ONLY AS STRONG AS 49 KT TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER... WITHIN THE VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT IT... THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS SIMILAR TO\r\nWHAT IT WAS WHEN STRONGER WINDS WERE OBSERVED AT 22Z. JOSE HAS JUST\r\nA FEW MORE HOURS OVER WATER... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THIS TROPICAL STORM IS\r\nQUITE SMALL AND RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED\r\nAFTER IT CROSSES THE COAST. HOWEVER... THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH ASSOCIATED LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... EVEN POSSIBLY WELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS\r\nAFTER LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES IS\r\n280/7.  THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY... AND ASSUMING THIS MOTION CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM AS\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS... THE CENTER OF JOSE IS EXPECTED TO REACH\r\nTHE COASTLINE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED MIGHT OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL.  JOSE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY MOVE\r\nINTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO ON TUESDAY... AND\r\nBEGIN LOSING ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 19.8N  96.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.9N  97.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 20.1N  98.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE RADAR AT ALVARADO MEXICO INDICATED THAT JOSE BECAME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED IN THE LAST TWO HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH AN\r\nEYE FORMING.  JUST HOW STRONG THE STORM GOT BEFORE LANDFALL IS\r\nUNKNOWN...AS AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE THE EYE STARTED TO FORM TRMM\r\nDATA SHOWED THE CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED\r\nJOSE WELL SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH.  SINCE LANDFALL...BOTH THE\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES HAVE WEAKENED...AND JOSE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nEASTERN MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  JOSE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS\r\nJOSE OR ITS REMNANTS TRAVERSE MEXICO.  THE COASTAL WARNING WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT 7 AM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 19.8N  97.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N  98.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 20.1N  99.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jose","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE JOSE IS RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKENING INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE WESTWARD...OR 270/08...ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.\r\n \r\nJOSE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING\r\n...BUT A 12H FORECAST POINT WAS PROVIDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES.\r\nALTHOUGH JOSE IS DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SLOW\r\nMOVING REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE\r\nWIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES\r\nACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 19.7N  98.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.7N  99.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...ALONG\r\nWITH OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS AND NEARBY SHIPS...INDICATE THE\r\nBROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME\r\nORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED RECON WINDS OF 39 KT AT 800\r\nFT...AND SHIP A8CI9 REPORTING 30-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 18Z IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WEAK...BUT IMPROVING AS\r\nA SMALL ANTICYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/07. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN A LARGE CLEAR AREA NOTED IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL RECON WINDS CLEARLY\r\nINDICATE A BROAD BUT OTHERWISE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SMALL VORTICES DEVELOP WITHIN THE\r\nCONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THEN ROTATE WESTWARD OUT\r\nFROM UNDER THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ROUGHLY THE\r\nGEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS...BUT SOME RE-ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE CENTER WITHIN THE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. TD-12 IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS SHOWS UP BEST IN 500 MB\r\nDATA...AND THEN DISAPPEARS BELOW AND ABOVE THAT LEVEL. BY 36-48\r\nHOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST THE\r\nWEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nRIDGE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD ACROSS\r\nSOUTHERN FLORIDA IN 60-72 HOURS...AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON\r\nEXACTLY WHEN A WELL-DEFINED CENTER WILL DEVELOP AND HOW SOON\r\nCONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONGLY DIFLUENT FROM THE\r\nNORTH FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO\r\nEASTERLY AFTER THAT. SINCE THE SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nRELATIVELY LOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND SSTS WILL BE NEAR 31C UNDER THE\r\nCENTER...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER. IF\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN THIS\r\nSYSTEM COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE NWS RULES GOVERNING THE NAMING OF TROPICAL CYCLONES SPECIFY\r\nTHAT...WITHIN A BASIN...WHEN A CYCLONE FORMS FROM THE REMNANT OF A\r\nPREVIOUSLY EXISTING CYCLONE...THE OLD NAME/NUMBER IS RETAINED.\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS A COMPLEX GENESIS THAT LIKELY\r\nINCLUDES A MID-LEVEL REMNANT OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN. A\r\nREVIEW OF SATELLITE AND RAWINSONDE DATA OVER THE PAST WEEK OR SO\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A SECOND DISTURBANCE APPROACHED AND COMBINED WITH THE\r\nMID-LEVEL REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ON 20 AUGUST. BECAUSE\r\nIT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH TODAY'S GENESIS...WE HAVE ELECTED TO USE THE\r\nDESIGNATION TWELVE RATHER THAN TEN FOR THE NEW DEPRESSION. THIS\r\nSITUATION DIFFERS FROM LAST YEAR'S REGENERATION OF IVAN...IN WHICH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT OF THAT SYSTEM REMAINED A DISTINCT FEATURE\r\nTHAT COULD BE FOLLOWED CONTINUOUSLY UNTIL IT REGENERATED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 23.2N  75.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 24.0N  76.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 25.0N  77.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 25.7N  78.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  79.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 26.3N  81.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N  83.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N  86.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... PRIOR TO DEPARTING THE DEPRESSION\r\nAFTER ABOUT 2230Z... CONTINUED TO REPORT A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nNEAR 1007 MB... AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DURING THIS\r\nMISSION NEVER EXCEEDED THE 39 KT OBSERVED SHORTLY AFTER 18Z.  DURING\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE CENTER HAS BEEN NEAR GEORGETOWN ON\r\nGREAT EXUMA ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... WHERE 1007 MB AND\r\nNEARLY CALM WINDS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN REPORTED.  LACKING ANY DATA TO\r\nSUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED\r\nAT 30 KT.  HOWEVER... RECENTLY A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION... WITH\r\nSOME TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... HAS STRENGTHENED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER... AND THIS BAND COULD WRAP SUFFICIENTLY AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM GREAT\r\nEXUMA ALSO DEPICTS A NEARLY CONTINUOUS CURVED BAND OF RAINFALL\r\nBENEATH THESE CONVECTIVE TOPS.\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGESTED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MOVING\r\nERRATICALLY.  BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nTHE BAHAMAS... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/6 KT... A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE A RESULT OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION LYING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS\r\nORIENTED EAST TO WEST BETWEEN BERMUDA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA.  SINCE\r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN MUCH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nA SLOW MOTION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH\r\nA WESTWARD BEND BEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE... EXCEPT FOR THE GFS... GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SINGLE OUTLIER FORECASTING\r\nTHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL STALL OVER FLORIDA BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SLOW TREND THIS EVENING TOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION...\r\nTHE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM EARLY ON WEDNESDAY\r\nMORNING. BEYOND THAT TIME... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC\r\nFOR MANY REASONS... NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH IS WIDELY DIFFERING\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INSISTS ON\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM CROSSES\r\nFLORIDA... WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST WIND SHEAR AND OVER VERY\r\nWARM SSTS. AS MORE OF A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS... BUT\r\nSTILL LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT STILL\r\nCALLS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO APPROACH FLORIDA WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nSINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME.  A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING AND PERHAPS A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE\r\nISSUED ON WEDNESDAY IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE RAPIDLY THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST... AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF\r\nTHIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT\r\nPRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005.\r\nTHIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC\r\nLOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT\r\nEACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 23.4N  76.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 24.2N  76.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 25.1N  77.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 25.7N  78.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.1N  79.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 26.5N  81.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  83.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 27.5N  85.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE NIGHT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE IS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW\r\nTHAT OVERALL THE CIRCULATION IS BETTER DEFINED THAT IT WAS 12 HR\r\nAGO...ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 75-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 925 MB IN THAT\r\nAREA...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM SURFACE WINDS. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...AND\r\nNONE OF THE BAHAMAS STATIONS ARE REPORTING MORE THAN 20 KT WINDS...\r\nIT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE REACHING THE\r\nSURFACE.  THUS...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE BERMUDA HIGH...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nHIGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT\r\nFOR THE GFS...FORECAST THE WEAKNESS TO FILL AND BE REPLACED BY A\r\nRIDGE AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U. S. MOVES\r\nEASTWARD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN\r\n24-48 HR...TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE GFS KEEPS A WEAKNESS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL OVER FLORIDA AND THEN\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD BY 120 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE GFS\r\nSOLUTION AND CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO CROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE OLD TRACK AND IS JUST TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE\r\nBROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM AND A POCKET OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  ONCE THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN\r\nMORE QUICKLY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 55-65 KT AS IT REACHES FLORIDA. \r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL BRINGS IT TO FLORIDA AS A DEPRESSION. \r\nTHIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE REASONABLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...CALLING FOR A 60 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN WHILE OVER FLORIDA...THE RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA IN FLORIDA LATER TODAY... POSSIBLY\r\nINCLUDING A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS MORE\r\nRAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST...AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF\r\nTHIS TROPICAL CYCLONE... ARE QUANTIFIED IN AN EXPERIMENTAL NHC TEXT\r\nPRODUCT ISSUED WITH THIS AND EVERY ADVISORY PACKAGE DURING 2005.\r\nTHIS PRODUCT PROVIDES WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES AT SPECIFIC\r\nLOCATIONS. THE PROBABILITIES OF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS ARE SIMILAR AT\r\nEACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION THROUGHOUT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 24.0N  76.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 24.7N  77.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 25.5N  78.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 25.9N  78.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.1N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 26.5N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  84.0W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  86.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...\r\nAND RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE TD-12 HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM\r\nKATRINA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN 1153Z RECON\r\n925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF 48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\n...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 36 KT AT THE SURFACE USING A STANDARD 75\r\nPERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR FOR THAT LEVEL. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL\r\nTHREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE KATRINA THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. KATRINA'S CENTER MAY BE\r\nDEVELOPING A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.\r\nHOWEVER...RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SMALL VORTICES OR MESOCYCLONES\r\nARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS...AND THEN\r\nPROPAGATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF LARGER CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF ALL\r\nTHE SMALL VORTICES NOTED IN RADAR DATA. OVERALL...RECON DATA\r\nINDICATE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS\r\nEAST-WEST ALONG 30-31N LATITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD\r\nEASTWARD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS\r\nAND CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW KATRINA TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nKATRINA HAS DEVELOPED A SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nWITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD\r\nIS CURRENTLY ELONGATED EAST-WEST...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TO THE WEST. KATRINA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 24.7N  76.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 25.4N  77.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 25.9N  78.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  79.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 26.1N  80.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 26.3N  82.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N  84.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  86.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM THE BAHAMAS AND MIAMI...\r\nAND THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA INDICATE KATRINA HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE INCREASED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED AND REMAINS QUITE SYMMETRICAL. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF RECON WIND...38 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS...AND PRESSURE DATA...1002 MB OR ROUGHLY 43 KT...AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA. THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE TO SOUTHWEST OF THE 1949Z\r\nRECON POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE LARGER-SCALE\r\nCIRCULATION BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE ZERO-ISODOP PATTERN NOTED\r\nIN THE NOAA/NWS MIAMI DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nBOTH THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE CENTER POSITION. I HAVE TRIED TO\r\nBLEND THE POSITIONS FROM RECON...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA. THE LAST\r\nRECON POSITION CAN BE SEEN AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING OUT\r\nFROM UNDERNEATH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THAT VORTEX MAY END UP BEING A TRANSIENT FEATURE. IF\r\nIT TURNS OUT THAT THE CENTER DOES END UP FARTHER NORTH...THEN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON THE\r\nNEXT ADVISORY. OTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION\r\n...THE REST OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA TO KEEP BUILDING\r\nSLOWLY EASTWARD...WHICH ULTIMATELY FORCES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD\r\nACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN 36-48 HOURS...AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIFFER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY ON WHERE AND WHEN KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF\r\nCOAST. THE GFDN IS THE WESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO\r\nNEW ORLEANS...WHEREAS THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE\r\nEASTERNMOST MODELS AND TAKE KATRINA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWITH THE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\n...AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR...AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF A\r\nNORMAL RATE OF 10 KT PER 12 HOURS UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS SEEMS\r\nJUSTIFIED. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT MUCH\r\nLESS THAN THE NOW VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL WHICH BRINGS KATRINA TO\r\n111 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT WITH\r\nSSTS NEAR 31C AND A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BETWEEN NOW\r\nAND LANDFALL. THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL EXPERIMENTAL\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION OUTPUT...WHICH INDICATES A 57 PERCENT\r\nPROBABILITY OF THAT OCCURRING. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE\r\nDRY AIR THAT SURROUNDS KATRINA AND HAS BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO\r\nTHE INNER-CORE REGION AND ERODING THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THE DRY\r\nAIR MIXES OUT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN INTENSITIES WOULD\r\nLIKELY BE HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INDICATING.\r\n\r\nOWING TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED...KATRINA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO\r\nPRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EVENT ACROSS THE\r\nCENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH\r\nFLORIDA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 25.6N  77.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 25.9N  77.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 26.1N  78.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  79.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 26.3N  80.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 26.4N  83.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N  85.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 30.5N  85.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n \r\nTHE 2300Z RECONNAISSANCE FIX AND RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND THE\r\nBAHAMAS INDICATE THAT KATRINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE\r\nLAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY SOUTH\r\nOF THE RIDGE AND EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD FORCE KATRINA TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS MEANS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA\r\nTHURSDAY NIGHT AND ALL DAY FRIDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nRELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS...BRINGS\r\nTHE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. BEYOND THREE DAYS...WHEN KATRINA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODELS  DIVERGE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...SUGGESTING TRACKS WHICH COVER THE COAST FROM\r\nMISSISSIPPI EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KATRINA NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF A STRONG APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH...ON A TRACK WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT SINCE ONE OF THE MORE\r\nRELIABLE MODELS...THE GFS...SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE BARELY TOUCHES\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD....WHILE THE\r\nOUTSTANDING GFDL MOVES KATRINA SOUTH OF DUE WEST ACROSS EXTREME\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS AS A VERY INTENSE HURRICANE. THE GFDL\r\nSCENARIO WOULD BE VERY DANGEROUS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS APPEARS TO\r\nBE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME BUT BECAUSE OF THE GOOD PAST\r\nPERFORMANCE OF THIS MODEL...WE MUST PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE\r\nMODEL RUNS.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND A BETTER RADAR PRESENTATION. LATEST\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 2300 UTC DID NOT SHOW INTENSIFICATION AND\r\nTHE PRESSURE WAS NOT DROPPING. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AND MAKES KATRINA A\r\nCATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SINCE THERE IS LOW SHEAR\r\nAND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG KATRINA'S PATH. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BUT KATRINA COULD\r\nINTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE IT IS FORECAST THAT KATRINA BECOMES A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nEAST FLORIDA COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 26.0N  78.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N  78.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  79.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 26.0N  80.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.3N  81.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  83.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 29.0N  85.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 32.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA IS GENERATING STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. \r\nHOWEVER...THE RADAR APPEARANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE\r\nCENTER NEAR THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND NO EVIDENCE OF THE EYE\r\nSTRUCTURE SEEN AROUND 00Z.  RECENT DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT AN\r\nINNER WIND CORE IS PRESENT...WHICH MAY BE THE SAME FEATURE SEEN IN\r\nTHE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 45 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/7.  KATRINA REMAINS SOUTH OF A COMPLEX\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE HAS ONLY A\r\nSLIGHT WEAKNESS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED FLOW TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE HAS A MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST.  THE FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THESE FEATURES IS TRYING TO PUSH KATRINA TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. \r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD OF\r\nLANDFALLS IN FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS TO NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. \r\nAFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAT KATARINA WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nDEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nSTILL A NOTABLE SPREAD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOP OF MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nKATRINA HAS BEEN BATTLING DRY AIR INTRUSION AND POSSIBLE NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW LAYER...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE\r\nCONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT.  SOME\r\nNORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL KATRINA\r\nMAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...WHICH WOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE COLD TOPS AND THE INNER WIND CORE SUGGEST THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR KATRINA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\nKATRINA SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA...THE RE-INTENSIFY UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 26.2N  78.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 26.2N  79.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 26.3N  80.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 26.3N  81.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 26.5N  82.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  84.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 29.5N  85.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. A FEW ISOLATED DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 68\r\nKT AT 9000-10000 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THE\r\nAVERAGE DOPPLER VELOCITIES OVER A 1-NMI STRETCH HAVE BEEN AROUND 55\r\nKT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 50-KT SURFACE WINDS. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM SAB. A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WITH SFMR CAPABILITY IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KATRINA...\r\nAND A RECENT REPORT INDICATES THE PRESSURE IS NOW LOWER AT 990 MB.\r\nHOWEVER... THIS PRESSURE DROP HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A\r\nCORRESPONDING INCREASE IN WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/5. 06Z AND 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nINDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ALONG 32N LATITUDE. THIS HAS\r\nCREATED A DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...ALBEIT A WEAK ONE.\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON KATRINA\r\nMOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHEN AND WHERE THE TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nTOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR NORTHWEST FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOCCUR. THE UKMET IS THE EASTERNMOST AND FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS\r\nKATRINA ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFDL IS THE\r\nWESTERNMOST MODEL AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA\r\nPANHANDLE. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BETWEEN\r\nTHESE SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48\r\nHOURS. THE GFDL MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FORECASTING A\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF FLORIDA FOR THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS TRACK IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TO SOME\r\nDEGREE...MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE GFDL IS TAKING KATRINA TOO\r\nFAR SOUTH THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR HAS\r\nGRADUALLY BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND\r\nKATRINA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SHARP MOISTURE\r\nGRADIENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR\r\nINTO THE INNER CORE AND HAS CAUSED THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN.\r\nHOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...RADAR DATA FROM MELBOURNE AND\r\nMIAMI INDICATE NUMEROUS SMALL BANDS OF CONVECTION ARE DEVELOPING IN\r\nTHE LARGE DRY SLOT TO THE NORTH...AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS\r\nBEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP. GIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OVER THE VERY\r\nWARM GULFSTREAM AND THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...KATRINA COULD\r\nSTILL POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL. KATRINA WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND\r\nTHEN RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF\r\nOF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE LOW. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT KATRINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST. IN FACT...KATRINA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN\r\nRIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 26.2N  79.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 26.2N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 26.2N  81.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 26.3N  82.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 26.7N  83.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 28.1N  84.3W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 34.0N  82.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA IS NOW A HURRICANE BASED ON NOAA RECON SFMR REPORTS OF\r\nSURFACE WINDS TO 64 KT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS\r\nARE SUPPORTED BY NOAA-MIAMI DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT\r\n3000 FT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 67 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE MOST\r\nRECENT NOAA RECON PRESSURE WHILE COMPOSING THIS DISCUSSION HAS\r\nFALLEN 2 MB IN THE PAST HOUR TO 985 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5. 12Z AND 18Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nINDICATE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KATRINA HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE WHILE AN INVERTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED\r\nNORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO KATRINA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO INDUCE A SLIGHT SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN AND ERODE ON THE WEST SIDE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nTHIS SLOW EVOLVING PATTERN IS FOECAST TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A SLOW\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT. THE GFS HAS\r\nBEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT/PERSISTENT MODEL IN TAKING KATRINA SLOWLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE\r\nGFDL...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE NOW FLIP-FLOPPED WIDELY TO THE\r\nWEST AND BRING KATRINA INLAND BETWEEN MOBILE ALABAMA AND GRAND ISLE\r\nLOUISIANA. THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVEN LESS WEIGHT\r\nGIVEN THEIR PERSISTENT MUCH FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH HAS NOT MATERIALIZED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KATRINA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN TO AROUND 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER LANDFALL\r\n...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE HURRICANE EMERGES OFF THE\r\nSOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. ONCE KATRINA MOVES OVER\r\nTHE WARM GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nLOW...RESTRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE SEEMS LIKELY. IT SHOULD BE\r\nEMPHASIZED THAT KATRINA IS NOT FORECAST TO WEAKEN PRIOR TO LANDFALL\r\n...WHICH COULD BE IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. IN\r\nCONTRAST...KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO 90 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE TREND IN THE GFDL MODEL...\r\nALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODEL MAKES KATRINA A 118-KT CATEGORY 4 STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 26.1N  79.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 26.1N  80.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 26.1N  81.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 26.4N  82.8W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  83.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N  85.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 31.5N  84.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 35.0N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 630 PM EDT...2230Z EARLIER TODAY\r\nNEAR THE BROWARD/MIAMI DADE COUNTY LINE. SINCE THEN...THE EYE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS MIAMI-DADE\r\nCOUNTY WHERE THE CALM WAS EXPERIENCED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SHARP INCREASE IN THE WINDS. THE MIAMI NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OFFICE MEASURED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 984.5 MB DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE EYE AND THE WINDS\r\nQUICKLY INCREASED IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL WITH A PEAK GUST OF 76\r\nKNOTS.  BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...KATRINA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY ALL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BRING KATRINA\r\nTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IN\r\nFACT...THE ECMWF MODEL DROPS THE PRESSURE OF KATRINA IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO TO 961 MB. THIS IS VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A GLOBAL MODEL.\r\n \r\nKATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 7\r\nKNOTS...STEERED BY THE NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A STRONG AND LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. THIS\r\nSOUTHWEST DIP HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL SINCE YESTERDAY. THE\r\nHIGH WHICH IS CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE WESTWARD AND A TROUGH OR WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN\r\nTHE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KATRINA ON A\r\nMORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 25.5N  80.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.4N  81.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  83.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N  84.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 26.5N  84.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N  85.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 31.5N  84.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 37.0N  80.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD PATH TAKEN BY KATRINA OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN\r\nFLORIDA...ITS CENTER SPENT ONLY ABOUT SEVEN HOURS OVER LAND...AND\r\nMUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE RELATIVELY MOIST EVERGLADES. AS A RESULT\r\nOF THIS AND THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT... KATRINA DID\r\nNOT WEAKEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA AT ABOUT 0530Z... EMERGING OVER THE WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI AND\r\nKEY WEST STILL DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE... WITH STRONG\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH STILL\r\nQUALIFIES AS SOMEWHAT OF AN EYEWALL. A SECONDARY BUT STRONG CURVED\r\nBAND ALSO EXTENDS FROM JUST EAST OF THE CENTER SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG\r\nTHE ENTIRE CHAIN OF THE FLORIDA KEYS... AND A LARGER OUTER BAND\r\nEXTENDS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nBETWEEN THE KEYS AND CUBA TO WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS. WHILE THE LATEST\r\nDOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES ONLY SUPPORT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE... THESE\r\nVALUES ARE STEADILY CLIMBING... AND THE FIRST DVORAK ESTIMATES OVER\r\nTHE GULF ARE A UNANIMOUS T4.0/65 KT. THEREFORE... KATRINA IS\r\nREASSIGNED HURRICANE STATUS WITH INTENSITY OF 65 KT.\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KATRINA HAS STARTED TO MOVE NEARLY DUE\r\nWESTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/4. THIS MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nAN EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN\r\nAND MIGRATE WESTWARD... ALLOWING KATRINA TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING. THE NEW SUITE OF GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST... AS HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...\r\nWHICH IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHIS SEEMS EVEN MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH EMERGING\r\nAGAIN OVER WATER.  AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH IN THE EASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BECOME MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nDOMINATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING KATRINA TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS....\r\nBUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECAST A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.  IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD\r\nATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 25.3N  81.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 25.2N  82.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.4N  83.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 25.9N  84.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 26.6N  85.4W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 28.5N  86.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  84.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 39.0N  79.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n \r\nRECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATES KATRINA'S\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS MUCH LOWER...NOW AT 971 MB. MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 81 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH\r\nSUPPORTS AT LEAST 70 KT SURFACE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIRCRAFT HAS\r\nNOT SAMPLED THE WINDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE NOAA/KEY WEST\r\nDOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATES WINDS AS HIGH AS 91 KT AT\r\nAROUND 3000 FT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF\r\nABOUT 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT MAY TURN OUT TO BE A\r\nLITTLE LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. RADAR DATA INDICATES KATRINA\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\nMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE TRACK SHOULD FLATTEN\r\nOUT IN A MORE WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA DECREASES.\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nKATRINA IS FORECAST BY THE ALL GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TIMING OF THE\r\nEROSION OF THE RIDGE AND AN INDUCED NORTHWARD MOTION OF KATRINA IS\r\nTHE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A\r\nLARGE SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS HAVE MADE A\r\nLARGE JUMP TO THE WEST OVER LOUISIANA...WHEREAS THE MAJORITY OF THE\r\nNHC MODELS TAKE KATRINA INLAND OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN THE RIGHT PORTION OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...A RECENT\r\nDROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATES MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW UP TO 80 KT. SO...A SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND FORECAST\r\nINTENSITIES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 25.1N  82.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N  83.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  84.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.2N  85.2W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.1N  85.9W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  86.3W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  83.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 40.5N  77.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-08-26 15:30:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83\r\nKT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO\r\nCORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE\r\nSHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR\r\nCATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE\r\nVERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1530Z 25.1N  82.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N  83.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  84.3W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.2N  85.2W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.1N  85.9W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  86.3W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  83.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 40.5N  77.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-08-26 15:30:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83\r\nKT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO\r\nCORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE\r\nSHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR\r\nCATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE\r\nVERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1530Z 25.1N  82.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.2N  83.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  84.3W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.2N  85.2W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.1N  85.9W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  86.3W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  83.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 40.5N  77.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n \r\nMOST RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 965 MB...BUT THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO 94 KT AT 700 MB...WHICH\r\nIS ABOUT AN 85-KT SURFACE WIND. A 1701Z DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT REPORTED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE SUPPORTS ABOUT 95-KT SURFACE WINDS. THE EYEWALL IN\r\nTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAS REMAINED OPEN...PROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT...AND THIS MAY PARTLY EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN\r\nTHE OBSERVED WINDS AND WHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TYPICALLY\r\nSUPPORTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...OR 255 DEGRESS...AT 07\r\nKT. KATRINA REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KATRINA. BOTH THE RIDGE\r\nAND TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS\r\n...WHICH ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THAT SCENARIO. AFTER 24 HOURS...\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO GRADUALLY DIG\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nERODE THE RIDGE...WHICH ALLOWS KATRINA TO MOVE NORTHWARD BY 72\r\nHOURS. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WESTWARD\r\nAND ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK BEING SHIFTED ABOUT 150 NMI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...\r\nPROJECTED LANDFALL IS STILL ABOUT 72 HOURS AWAY...SO FURTHER\r\nMODIFICATIONS IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nKATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF LOOP CURRENT AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH\r\nBRING KATRINA UP TO 118 KT. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL IS MORE\r\nROBUST AND BRINGS KATRINA UP TO 129 KT JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 24.8N  82.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 24.9N  83.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 25.2N  85.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 25.8N  86.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 26.9N  87.7W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  88.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 35.0N  86.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 40.5N  79.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND CONSISTS OF\r\nA PERFECT A COMMA-SHAPED CLOUD PATTERN WHICH BEGINS OVER WESTERN\r\nCUBA AND WRAPS AROUND A LARGE CLUSTER OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. THIS\r\nBAND IS PROBABLY PRODUCING NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG\r\nTHE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT CLEARLY\r\nVISIBLE ON IR IMAGES...RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THIS CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN KATRINA IN THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A TYPICAL 200 MB\r\nANTICYLONE...WITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING UPWARD TO THAT\r\nLEVEL. THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES.\r\nIN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM\r\nLOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH\r\nOCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS\r\nKATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON\r\nHURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124\r\nKNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nBRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS. \r\n \r\nKATRINA CONTINUES TO MOVE STUBBORNLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR\r\n250 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A VERY STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER MEAN HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS. IN FACT...DATA FROM THE\r\nNOAA JET JUST RELAYED BY THE METEOROLOGIST ONBOARD INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE HIGH CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRONG. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND LEAVE A WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  KATRINA WILL LIKELY TAKE THAT OPPORTUNITY AND\r\nBEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THE INTENSE\r\nHURRICANE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS OR SO. \r\nIT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS DECREASED AND MOST\r\nOF THE RELIABLE NUMERICAL MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW CLUSTERED BETWEEN\r\nTHE EASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA AND THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI.  THIS\r\nCLUSTERING INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 24.6N  83.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 24.6N  84.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N  87.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N  89.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 30.5N  89.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 35.0N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 40.5N  81.0W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN\r\nGOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT\r\n945 MB.  WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET\r\nEXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE. \r\nGIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nINCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT\r\nKATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE INITIAL\r\nAND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nWSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM KEY WEST... AND THE SERIES OF AIRCRAFT\r\nFIXES... INDICATE THAT KATRINA IS WOBBLING ABOUT A HEADING JUST\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST... SO THE LONG-ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE WEST MIGHT\r\nBE STARTING.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN LATER TODAY... FOLLOWED BY A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATRINA EASES WESTWARD AND A\r\nWEAKNESS DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS FORECAST OF THE TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO HAD\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OF FORECAST CYCLES.  THE\r\nLATEST CONSENSUS TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS... SO\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTWARD SHIFTING OF THE MODELS IS ENDING. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK\r\nAND A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DUE TO THE\r\nDECREASING SPREAD IN THE MODELS... THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS INCREASING.\r\n \r\nKATRINA IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMINGLY\r\nCANNOT GET MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING... PRIMARILY DUE\r\nTO A VERY LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  NOT SURPRISINGLY... UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE HURRICANE\r\nCONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.  THIS WEAK WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR\r\nABOUT THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNTIL AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO\r\nTEXAS FROM THE WEST.  THEREFORE SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER\r\nTHE HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL ON THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST... BUT IT SEEMS THAT WILL BE TOO LATE TO\r\nPREVENT KATRINA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT\r\nLANDFALL.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO 123 KT...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW PEAKS AT 120 KT OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-FOOT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON DATA FROM NOAA\r\nBUOY 42003 AND ON SHIP DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 24.4N  84.4W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 24.5N  85.4W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 25.0N  87.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N  88.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 27.4N  89.9W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 31.5N  90.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 36.0N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 40.0N  82.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATRINA DROPPED TO 940 MB AT 0932Z. \r\nSINCE THEN...THE HURRICANE HAS STARTED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nCYCLE...WITH A FILLING OF THE EYE AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 100 KT BASED\r\nMAINLY ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 115 KT FROM SAB.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT SO FAR ARE 106 KT...WHICH\r\nARE LOWER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED FOR A 940 MB HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6.  KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD\r\nCAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE\r\nLANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD...\r\nPARTICULARLY FROM THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH CALL FOR\r\nLANDFALL NEAR MORGAN CITY AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE OTHER GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED WITH LANDFALL\r\nBETWEEN GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA AND PENSACOLA FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR\r\nLANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nKATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN SLOWLY FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO AS THE\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL COMPLETES AND SOME RESIDUAL NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nAFFECTS THE STORM.  AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN A LIGHT\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH 125 KT IN 48 HR AS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE 120 KT GFDL...THE 126 KT GFDN...THE 127 KT SHIPS...AND\r\nTHE 132 KT FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF\r\nTHE QUESTION THAT KATRINA COULD REACH CATEGORY 5 STATUS AT SOME\r\nPOINT BEFORE LANDFALL.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOUTHERLY OR\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD AFFECT KATRINA STARTING AT 48 HR...AND AS\r\nALWAYS HAPPENS IN HURRICANE OF THIS INTENSITY ADDITIONAL CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING\r\nMETROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.  THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE\r\nEXTENDED ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 24.5N  85.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 24.6N  86.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 25.3N  87.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 26.7N  89.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 28.6N  89.9W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 33.0N  89.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 37.5N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 41.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...\r\nAS WELL AS THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...SHOW THAT KATRINA IS STILL IN A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE WITH THE INNER EYEWALL 9 N MI WIDE AND THE\r\nOUTER 45-50 N MI WIDE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN AS HIGH AS\r\n950 MB...WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nHAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE\r\nOUTER EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH MEASUREMENTS FROM THE NOAA STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SUGGEST THE SURFACE WINDS IN THIS\r\nAREA ARE STILL LESS THAN 100 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/6.  KATRINA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES...AND A NEW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FORMS OVER THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD\r\nCAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AND MAKE\r\nLANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE LED\r\nAN OVERALL SHIFT TO THE WEST TOWARD SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.  THIS\r\nSHIFT IS NOT UNANIMOUS...HOWEVER...AS THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALONG THE WEST EDGE OF THE MAIN\r\nCLUSTER OF GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRS 24-36 HR AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHAT CLUSTER THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST\r\nLOUISIANA IN A LITTLE UNDER 48 HR.\r\n \r\nKATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nCYCLE.  THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE\r\nTHAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST A BIT.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nAND EXPANDED PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. \r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT FOR PARTS\r\nOF THE WATCH AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 24.6N  85.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 24.9N  86.8W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 25.8N  88.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N  89.6W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 29.6N  90.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  89.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 38.5N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 43.0N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nABOUT 100 KNOTS...BUT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING. THE MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 939 MB. THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN...AND HAS BEEN CHANGING\r\nFROM A COIL TO A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nEVENING. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE AROUND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WHICH\r\nALSO SUPPORTS 100 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE NOAA JET CURRENTLY SAMPLING\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS\r\nUPWARD TO ABOUT 200 MB AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE SCALE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH THE HIGH\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN...ALONG THE PATH\r\nOF KATRINA...CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE STRENGTHENING\r\nIS ALSO FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH BRING\r\nKATRINA TO 130 AND 123 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. CHANGES IN THE INNER\r\nCORE STRUCTURE BEFORE LANDFALL MAY MODIFY THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA\r\nUP OR DOWN...BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES ARE NOT POSSIBLE TO\r\nFORECAST NOWADAYS WITH OUR PRESENT KNOWLEDGE. WE CAN ONLY DESCRIBE\r\nTHEM AS THEY OCCUR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THESE CHANGES IN THE INNER\r\nCORE...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INTENSE\r\nAND DANGEROUS HURRICANE HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF\r\nCOAST...AND THIS HAS TO BE TAKEN VERY SERIOUSLY.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT KATRINA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND LEAVES A WEAKNESS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...AND A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHOULD RESULT IN A PATTERN THAT\r\nFORCES KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD TOWARD THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY\r\nCLOSELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 25.0N  86.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 25.4N  87.3W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N  89.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  89.8W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  89.8W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 36.5N  87.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  80.5W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 45.5N  71.4W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-08-28 06:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY OF HURRICANE KATRINA.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 137\r\nKT IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 125 KT AT\r\nTHE SURFACE.  THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT WAS 935 MB.  ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED 125 KT\r\nMORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED UPWARD TO 130 KT.  IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS\r\nEVEN REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0600Z 25.1N  86.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 25.5N  87.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N  89.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  89.8W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 31.0N  89.8W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 36.5N  87.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  80.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 45.5N  71.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AND GROW LARGER.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MOST RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 935 MB... AND THE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED SIGNIFICANTLY...\r\nWITH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 137 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING. \r\nTHIS OBSERVATION ALONG WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  ADDITIONALLY...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD\r\nCONTINUES TO EXPAND.  THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE\r\nAGAIN BEEN EXPANDED.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO\r\nFURTHER EXPANSION OF THE RADII BEFORE LANDFALL...THIS IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND SIZE\r\nFORECASTS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED BOTH EAST\r\nAND WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nANTICIPATES THAT KATRINA COULD APPROACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS PRIOR\r\nTO LANDFALL.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DOES FORECAST 140 KT AT\r\n24 HOURS... BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT INTERNAL STRUCTURAL\r\nCHANGES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY... SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 135 KT.  WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE\r\nLANDFALL INTENSITY CANNOT BE NOT KNOWN AT THIS TIME... KATRINA WILL\r\nBE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nKATRINA IS MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... JUST A LITTLE\r\nFASTER NOW WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/9.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE TURN TO THE NORTH DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nLARGE MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS HARDLY\r\nMOVED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH THE NEW FORECAST BASICALLY JUST\r\nUPDATES.  THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST IS AT MOST 90 MILES... SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS RELATIVELY HIGH.  HOWEVER...IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE EXACT\r\nLANDFALL POINT CANNOT BE SPECIFIED AND THAT KATRINA IS A LARGE\r\nHURRICANE THAT WILL AFFECT A LARGE AREA... BOTH AT THE COAST AND\r\nWELL INLAND.  PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE WARNING AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 25.4N  87.4W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 26.3N  88.4W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  89.4W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  89.8W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 32.3N  89.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 37.5N  86.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 42.0N  79.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 47.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-08-28 12:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n\r\nTHE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF\r\nKATRINA TO CATEGORY FIVE.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 153 KNOTS...WHICH\r\nCORRESPONDS TO MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 140 KNOTS.  \r\nOBVIOUSLY...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW STRONG KATRINA WILL BE AT\r\nLANDFALL.  WE HAVE VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING THIS. \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...ARE\r\nLIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  NEVERTHELESS...KATRINA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A DEVASTING CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE HURRICANE AT\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1200Z 25.7N  87.7W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 26.3N  88.4W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  89.4W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 30.0N  89.8W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 32.3N  89.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 37.5N  86.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 42.0N  79.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 47.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n\r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A 166 KT FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWIND IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL...WHICH REQUIRES AN ADDITIONAL UPWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY TO 150 KT.  A DROP IN THE EYE\r\nGAVE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB.  KATRINA IS COMPARABLE IN\r\nINTENSITY TO HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969...ONLY LARGER.  GPS\r\nDROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION EARLIER TODAY SHOWED\r\nKATRINA'S INTENSE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDING THROUGH THE 200 MB\r\nLEVEL...WITH THE FLOW SPIRALING ANTICYLONICALLY OUTWARD IN A\r\nWELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN BEYOND A COUPLE HUNDRED\r\nN MI FROM THE CENTER.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...DUE TO INTERNAL\r\nSTRUCTURAL CHANGES...ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  HURRICANES\r\nRARELY SUSTAIN SUCH EXTREME WINDS FOR MUCH TIME.  HOWEVER WE SEE\r\nNO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE EFFECTS TO CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING THE\r\nSYSTEM...AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE OF CATEGORY\r\n4 OR 5 INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  KATRINA SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE\r\nRATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  RECALLING THAT THE AVERAGE NHC 24-HOUR\r\nTRACK FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 N MI...THE ACTUAL LANDFALL POINT\r\nCOULD STILL BE ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE\r\nMISSISSIPPI COAST.  ALSO...WE MUST CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT ON THE MAP...BECAUSE DESTRUCTIVE\r\nWINDS...TORRENTIAL RAINS...STORM SURGE...AND DANGEROUS WAVES EXTEND\r\nWELL AWAY FROM THE EYE.  IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY WHICH COUNTY\r\nOR PARISH WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST WEATHER.\r\n \r\nTHIS ADVISORY SHOWS AN ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AT LEAST 150 N MI\r\nINLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA.  CONSULT INLAND WARNINGS ISSUED\r\nBY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 26.0N  88.1W   150 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 27.2N  88.9W   145 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 29.1N  89.6W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 31.4N  89.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  88.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 40.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 45.0N  77.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 52.0N  69.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA IS MAINTAINING A CLASSIC PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...AND CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED\r\nBY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE AT 1755Z AND 1923Z WAS 902\r\nMB...WHICH IS THE FOURTH LOWEST ON RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN\r\nBEHIND HURRICANE GILBERT OF 1988...THE LABOR DAY HURRICANE OF\r\n1935...AND HURRICANE ALLEN OF 1980.  HAVING SAID THAT...DATA FROM\r\nTHE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE\r\nAIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE TO 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND RATIO\r\nIS NOT QUITE AS LARGE AS WE TYPICALLY USE...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 145 KT.  HURRICANES DO NOT\r\nMAINTAIN SUCH GREAT INTENSITY FOR VERY LONG.  HOWEVER THERE ARE NO\r\nOBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE MECHANISMS...SUCH AS INCREASED VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...TO WEAKEN KATRINA.  THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL WITH CATEGORY 4 OR 5 INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ABOUT 315/11.  KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.  THE 12Z GFDL\r\nHURRICANE MODEL'S TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AS HAS THE\r\nLATEST NOGAPS RUN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST\r\nAND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  THIS IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO BOTH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS... AND TO THE LATEST\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.  AMONG OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS...ONLY THE\r\nU.K. MET. OFFICE IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SMALL CHANGE IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AT THE NOISE LEVEL.  ONE\r\nSHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK...PARTICULARLY IN THE CASE OF A\r\nHURRICANE AS LARGE AS THIS ONE.  DESTRUCTIVE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE\r\nFELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO SPECIFY\r\nWHICH COUNTIES OR PARISHES WILL EXPERIENCE THE WORST CONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nON THE BASIS OF AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND\r\nDATA...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED EVEN MORE OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD\r\nAT LEAST 150 N MI INLAND ALONG THE PATH OF KATRINA.  CONSULT INLAND\r\nHURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 26.9N  89.0W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 28.3N  89.8W   145 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 30.6N  89.9W   130 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 33.4N  89.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 36.0N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 41.0N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 48.0N  72.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA. \r\nTHE NOAA AIRCRAFT NEAR 00Z REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 155\r\nKT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO 140 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE\r\nPRESSURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...904 MB AT LAST REPORT.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...OR\r\nSFMR...SUGGESTED WINDS WERE IN THE 120-130 KT RANGE...AND LIMITED\r\nDROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGESTED SOMETHING A LITTLE BELOW 140 KT. \r\nTHERE ARE ENOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SFMR AT\r\nTHESE SPEEDS FOR ME TO STICK WITH THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT\r\nADJUSTMENT FOR NOW.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER\r\nTHE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER\r\nEYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW\r\nA LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.\r\nTHE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL\r\nIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE\r\nCOULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS\r\nRELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT\r\nLEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE\r\nGENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT\r\nEVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT\r\nEXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 335/9.  KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING JUST A BIT\r\nEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  WHILE THERE IS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR\r\nTHE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...TRACK\r\nANOMOLIES OF 30-50 MILES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN 12-18 HOURS OUT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 27.6N  89.4W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 29.2N  89.7W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 31.8N  89.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 34.8N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 37.7N  85.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 43.5N  78.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 50.0N  70.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING KATRINA THIS MORNING AND HAS\r\nREPORTED SOME MECHANICAL PROBLEMS WHICH HAS PREVENTED MAKING A\r\nCOMPLETE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\nHOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 132-134 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHILE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM\r\nWFO SLIDELL EXCEEDING 123 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT BETWEEN 12000-16000 FT. THESE WIND VALUES WOULD SUPPORT AT\r\nLEAST 125 KT SURFACE WINDS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IS NOW 915 MB...THIS WOULD USUALLY\r\nSUPPORT ABOUT 145 KT SURFACE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KT IS A\r\nBLEND OF THESE VALUES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/13. KATRINA IS MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE COMBINATION OF THE\r\nSTRONG RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST\r\nSHOULD ACT TO KEEP KATRINA MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS OR SO. BY 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS A STRONGER TROUGH LIFTS OUT THE SYSTEM AND\r\nTRANSITIONS IT INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES\r\nREGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT KATRINA WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A\r\nCATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY HAS ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE DUE TO DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT...AND THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHWEST IN RADAR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THE WATER REMAINS QUITE WARM\r\nUNDERNEATH THE CENTER...AND CONVECTION CAN EASILY REDEVELOP AND THE\r\nEYEWALL CLOSE OFF AGAIN BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. SOME DISRUPTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES OVER SOUTHEASTERN\r\nLOUISIANA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE EYE CLOSE ENOUGH\r\nTO WARM WATER NEAR THE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND EVEN\r\nCONTAINS A RARE 200 MB INDRAFT ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST NEAR TAMPA\r\nBAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE OUTFLOW REGIME AND THE CLOSE PROXIMITY\r\nTO WARM WATER MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP KATRINA A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN\r\nIT REACHES THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER AREA THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nJUST BECAUSE KATRINA IS NO LONGER A CATGEORY 5 HURRICANE DOES NOT\r\nMEAN THAT EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL NOT OCCUR.\r\nTHIS IS STILL AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY DEADLY\r\nHURRICANE!\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 28.8N  89.6W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 30.6N  89.6W   110 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 33.6N  89.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 36.7N  87.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 39.8N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 45.5N  76.5W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 51.0N  68.0W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA IS MAKING ITS SECOND NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST LANDFALL...NEAR THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER.  WSR-88D\r\nRADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL IS VERY INTENSE AND\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES ARE NEAR 120 KT AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 5000 FT\r\nOVER EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.  THIS...ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SUPPORTS\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 110 KT.  STEADY WEAKENING WILL\r\nOCCUR AS THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND.  HOWEVER KATRINA HAS SUCH A\r\nLARGE AND POWERFUL CIRCULATION THAT IT WILL PROBABLY RETAIN\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS\r\nWELL INLAND.  THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES IS A\r\nMAJOR CONCERN...AS IS FRESHWATER FLOODING.   \r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n360/14.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. \r\nKATRINA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nCYCLONE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  KATRINA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND ITS IDENTITY...\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MERGES WITH A MID-LATITUDE\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nSPECIAL THANKS ARE EXTENDED TO THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER CREWS STATIONED AT KEESLER AIR FORCE BASE IN\r\nBILOXI MISSISSIPPI...WHO HAVE BEEN FLYING CONTINUOUS MISSIONS\r\nTHROUGH KATRINA EVEN AS THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES ARE BEING\r\nSERIOUSLY IMPACTED BY THIS HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 30.2N  89.6W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 32.3N  89.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 35.4N  88.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 39.0N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 42.0N  82.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 47.5N  72.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 51.5N  67.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katrina","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-08-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THERE HAVE BEEN NO OFFICIAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  BASED ON WSR-88D\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 65\r\nKT...HOWEVER THIS IS ADMITTEDLY A CRUDE ESTIMATE SINCE THE INLAND\r\nRATIO OF SURFACE WINDS TO VELOCITIES ALOFT IS NOT WELL DOCUMENTED. \r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS A WEAKENING RATE THAT IS MORE OR LESS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.  KATRINA IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING AND DROP BELOW STORM\r\nSTRENGTH SOMETIME TUESDAY MORNING.  BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM NEARS\r\nTHE GREAT LAKES...IT SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\nKATRINA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY\r\nANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER CANADA LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nKATRINA HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE MORE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n360/16.  THE PRIMARY STEERING CURRENT IS BEING PROVIDED THE FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A LARGE EASTWARD-MOVING LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN\r\nGREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST.\r\nTHIS STEERING SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST...AND ACCELERATE SOME MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND\r\nWINDS WILL REMAIN INTO THIS EVENING.  OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES.  INLAND FLOODING WILL\r\nALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 31.9N  89.6W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 34.2N  89.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 37.2N  87.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 40.5N  83.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 50.0N  70.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 53.0N  67.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-08-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA HAS WEAKENED FURTHER AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS BASED ON THE AVAILABLE\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT THE SHIPS INLAND DECAY MODEL SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT IT MAY BE NEAR 50 KT.  DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT AT 4000 FT\r\nFROM THE NWS/BIRMINGHAM RADAR ALSO ARE ROUGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS\r\nESTIMATE.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND GFS MODEL FIELDS\r\nSUGGEST THAT KATRINA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS...AND BECOME INDISTINCT WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/19...WHICH IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN\r\nTHIS GENERAL DIRECTION BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF\r\nTHE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND A MID-LATITUDE LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT\r\nLAKES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALREADY LAGGING BEHIND ON THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED...AND SO I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE\r\nFORECAST...BUT TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND\r\nWINDS WILL REMAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN\r\nIS THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES. INLAND FLOODING\r\nWILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 33.5N  88.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 36.3N  87.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 39.4N  84.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 42.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  73.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 52.0N  68.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katrina","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-08-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KATRINA HAS\r\nSHEARED APART...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL\r\nTENNESSEE NOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER OVER\r\nNORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI.  THERE ARE NO OFFICIAL REPORTS OF\r\nSUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS.  HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN\r\nNUMEROUS UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF 50-55 KT GUSTS OVER NORTHERN ALABAMA\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  BASED ON THIS...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nRISING TO 981 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF KATRINA ISA A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION OF 015/16.  OTHER THAN\r\nTHAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. \r\nKATRINA WILL BE STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE GREAT LAKES AND A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES... WHICH\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 12 HR BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN UPDATE.\r\n\r\nKATRINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HR.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER 36 HR IS A\r\nREFLECTION OF THE INCREASED FORWARD MOTION...NOT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nEVEN THROUGH THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND\r\nWINDS WILL REMAIN FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN\r\nIS THE POTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES.  INLAND FLOODING\r\nAND TORNADOES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 34.7N  88.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 37.2N  86.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 40.3N  82.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 43.7N  77.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 47.5N  71.4W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 53.0N  68.5W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Katrina","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-08-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2005\r\n \r\nKATRINA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND AND IT IS NOW A\r\n30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND\r\nTHERE ONLY A FEW REMAINING CLUSTERS...RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A\r\nLARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nABOUT 18 KNOTS AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. KATRINA IS PRIMARILY NOW A HEAVY RAIN\r\nEVENT. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF STRONG INLAND WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN\r\nFOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER AND OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL LOSS OF LIFE DUE TO FALLING TREES.  INLAND FLOODING AND\r\nTORNADOES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A HAZARD.\r\n \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 PM CDT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 36.3N  87.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 38.5N  85.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 42.0N  80.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 45.5N  74.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 50.0N  71.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 55.5N  67.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A NEW NOAA BUOY...41041...LOCATED IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC\r\nHAVE HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT A WEAK BUT LARGE SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nHAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND IS LOCATED\r\nMOSTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS AND ONLY\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  SHIPS MODEL IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS THE\r\nCYCLONE TO 62 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS\r\nFORMATIVE STAGE. THERE ARE SEVERAL CIRCULATION CENTERS ROTATING\r\nAROUND A LARGER GYRE AND ANY OF THEM...ESPECIALLY THE ONE FARTHER TO\r\nTHE NORTH...COULD BECOME THE DOMINANT CENTER. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. CURRENTLY THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WELL NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL LIKELY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE PLACED ALONG 65 DEGREES WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 15.4N  46.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N  48.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N  50.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  53.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N  55.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 20.5N  58.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N  61.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  64.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN THE\r\nMODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  SHORTWAVE INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN...WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAIN UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nPROBLEMATIC.  AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION WITHIN\r\n48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A MID-ATLANTIC TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE BY MID\r\nPERIOD...GRADUALLY BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO 61 KT IN 120 HOURS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nGFDL...INDICATING SLOW STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/10.  THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST\r\nA RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS NEAR 54W JUST\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATION.  ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nCOMPLETELY SHEARS FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND CONTINUES ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MODELS...THE\r\nGFDL...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CALLING FOR A GRADUAL TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 15.9N  47.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 16.9N  48.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.1N  50.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.2N  52.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 20.4N  54.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 22.5N  58.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 24.0N  60.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 25.5N  62.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE\r\nTHIS MORNING.  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY 41040\r\nSUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MORE THAN ONE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE\r\nDISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  AT THE MOMENT...THE DOMINANT\r\nCIRCULATION SEEMS TO BE NEAR THE MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN CONVECTIVE\r\nCLUSTER.  HOWEVER... IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CENTER WERE\r\nTO BE RELOCATED FURTHER SOUTHWEST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY WHERE THE BUOY\r\nINDICATED A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 10 KT.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE\r\n25 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORTING A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...INDICATING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTH BY 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  AN\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO IS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AS A SHEARED SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS\r\nSOLUTION. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 16.8N  49.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.8N  51.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.3N  53.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.7N  55.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N  57.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 23.7N  59.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 25.5N  61.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 27.0N  63.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL WERE CORRECT IN SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT THIS CYCLONE WAS NOT GOING TO DEVELOP FURTHER. THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nSTILL PRODUCING DISORGANIZED PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nSTRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nVIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR 19.0N AND 51.5W.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MONITORED FOR\r\nSIGNS OF REGENERATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 18.5N  50.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  52.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WHICH BECAME A BROAD AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS RE-GENERATED INTO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STATUS. THIS IS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AND A SSM/I MICROWAVE IMAGE AROUND 10Z WHICH\r\nSHOWS A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BUT THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nAND IF IT NOT ONE NOW...IT COULD BE ONE LATER TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 11\r\nKNOTS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE POORLY DEFINED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AND THE DEPRESSION COULD TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS TRACK IS IN\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND CLIMATOLOGY.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 28.8N  50.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.0N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N  48.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 34.0N  47.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  46.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 38.0N  45.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 44.0N  39.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE IS AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE UNDER THE\r\nCONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS LIMITED. BASED ON 2.5 DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM\r\nCIMSS/NESDIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 30 TO\r\n35 KNOTS. THIS REQUIRES UPGRADING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE...THE 12TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING SINCE\r\nTHE OCEAN IS RELATIVELY WARM BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT\r\nVERY FAVORABLE. \r\n\r\nLEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS\r\nAROUND A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND A DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK WHICH KEPT THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nNORTHEAST. THIS CHANGE IS BASED ON THE LASTEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND THE GFDL WHICH TAKE A LOW PRESSURE AREA...OR THE MODEL\r\nREPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE...AROUND THE LARGER UPPER-LOW\r\nAND A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. ANY\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 30.5N  49.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.3N  49.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 34.0N  49.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 35.0N  49.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 36.0N  50.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 37.0N  50.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 38.0N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 39.0N  51.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH LEE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THERE IS\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nEXISTS...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY WE WILL ASSUME A CENTER\r\nSTILL EXISTS UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS\r\nBECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A NEW AND\r\nEXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THE DEGREDATION OF THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...LEE IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. GIVEN THE TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE\r\nAPPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...AND AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS AND DISSIPATES LEE AFTER 72 HOURS. IF THE SATELLITE PATTERN\r\nDOES NOT IMPROVE SHORTLY...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS. \r\n \r\nLEE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS AND THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/09. THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER LOW\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS THEN SLOW AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. \r\nIN FACT...THE GFS STALLS THE DEPRESSION BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 31.2N  49.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 32.2N  48.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 33.0N  48.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 33.8N  48.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  48.7W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 35.5N  49.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005\r\n \r\nA REVIEW OF MICROWAVE DATA STARTING AT ABOUT 31/1720Z SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LEE MOVED NORTHWARD BETWEEN 31/1800Z-\r\n01/0000Z AND NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THEN...AND DID NOT FOLLOW THE\r\nCONVECTION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS 50W.  AT THE MOMENT...A\r\nWELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EXISTS ABOUT 90 N MI W OF THE\r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTION...AND WELL TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  THUS...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A CONSIDERABLE\r\nRE-LOCATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED\r\nON A 29 KT WIND REPORTED BY SHIP ELTZ7.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10.  THE CENTER OF LEE\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE MADE A PARTIAL LOOP AS IT MERGES WITH A BROAD\r\nNON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WAS FORMING TO ITS NORTH.  MOST\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS HAD A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE CYCLONE...WITH\r\nTHE CENTER TOO FAR EAST AND A FORECAST TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. \r\nTHE CANADIAN MODEL HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION AND DRIFTS LEE\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR.  THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS CONTINUE THE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR AND THEN TURN LEE NORTHWARD.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nBASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION... CALLING FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL.  THERE\r\nIS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME ERRATIC LOOPING MOTION DURING THE FIRST 12\r\nHR OR SO AS LEE AND THE OTHER LOW FINISH THEIR MERGER.\r\n\r\nTHE MERGER OF LEE AND THE NON-TROPICAL LOW CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW\r\nTROPICAL LEE ACTUALLY IS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER.  NEITHER THE GFDL OR SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR 96 HR...AND THE CANADIAN BREAKS THE CIRCULATION\r\nOPEN INTO A TROUGH AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE\r\nTHE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION\r\nCOULD RE-FORM FOR A TIME NEAR THE SURFACE CENTER.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nTHIS DOES NOT OCCUR...LEE COULD BE DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW OR\r\nTO EXTRATROPCIAL STATUS WITH 24 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 31.9N  51.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 32.7N  51.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 33.4N  51.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 34.6N  51.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 35.8N  51.6W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 38.0N  51.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A BAND OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. HOWEVER...WE WILL\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON A 31-KNOT WIND OBSERVATION FORM THE SHIP ELTZ7 AT 12Z.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING SINCE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS NEAR AN UPPER LOW. THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND THE OCEAN IS NOT COOL. THEREFORE...SOME CONVECTION\r\nMAY REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT\r\nIT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 3 KNOTS\r\nAND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 31.9N  51.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 32.3N  51.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 33.5N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.1N  52.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEFINING THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED TO A BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nMORE TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT BECAUSE THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER...IT IS\r\nOPTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nLEE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM SO IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 32.4N  51.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 32.9N  51.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 34.0N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 35.5N  52.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 37.5N  52.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LEE\r\nHAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION NOW CONSISTS ONLY OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON LEE UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS NEAR 30 KT BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON\r\nTHE DEGENERATION OF THE CONVECTION.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN 25 KT WINDS PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANT LOW\r\nCENTER THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLEE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT THE\r\n12 HOUR MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/06.  NOW THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nDISSIPATING DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 32.4N  52.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 33.1N  53.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 34.0N  53.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 35.0N  53.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 37.0N  53.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 01 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION HAS FORMED IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 1000\r\nMILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED\r\nAS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST IS PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER LOW SHOULD MOVE WEST\r\nAND SEPARATE ITSELF FROM THE SYSTEM...THEREBY REDUCING THE SHEAR.\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ARE GIVING CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WITH THE GFS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWING STEADY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL INDICATE SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER SHEAR\r\nAND WARMER WATER SHOULD PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...TAKING\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO 55 KT AT 120 HOURS WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN\r\nTHE 86 KT SHIPS IS FORECASTING AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING SOUTH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE\r\nSHOULD EVENTUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE AMPLIFIES TO THE EAST.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nSUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS MODEL BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 19.0N  46.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.6N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.4N  50.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 21.2N  52.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 22.1N  54.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N  57.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 26.5N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.0N  60.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nMAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CAUSING THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD PLACE THE DEPRESSION UNDER\r\nA SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LESS SHEAR. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE SPLIT IN FORECAST INTENSITIES...\r\nWITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE UKMET MODEL DISSIPATING\r\nTHE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nBRINGING THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR\r\n12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY SLOW STRENGTHENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS\r\nA VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE HIGH BUILDS TO THE EAST AND\r\nAN UPPER LOW REMAINS NEAR 65W BETWEEN BERMUDA AND PUERTO RICO. \r\nDUE IN LARGE PART TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS IN  \r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THIS TIME...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A GENERAL MOTION TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND\r\nTHE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 19.6N  46.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 20.3N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.3N  49.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 22.5N  51.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 23.7N  52.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 26.5N  55.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  57.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 33.0N  58.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION... WITH JUST\r\nA VERY LIMITED AREA OF -70C CLOUD TOPS TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NO GREATER THAN\r\n2.0... AND THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION. AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPOSE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT IS IMPEDING\r\nANY STRENGTHENING... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR...ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE...DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO. THE PROSPECTS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION ARE THEREFORE LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD. IN\r\nFACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nWEAKEN THE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND THE\r\nGFS EVEN FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. PRESUMABLY DUE TO\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF THE ANTICYCLONE... THE SHIPS FORECASTS WEAK SHEAR\r\nAND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND ANTICIPATES SLIGHTLY LESS\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10... A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT\r\nOR EAST THAN EARLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE\r\nEXPECTATION OF A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM...AND A BIT OF AN EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN\r\nPERHIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 20.4N  47.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.2N  48.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 22.4N  50.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 23.9N  51.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  53.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N  55.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 31.5N  56.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 34.0N  56.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN REMAINS IN A SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED\r\nAT THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RECTANGULAR CONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -70C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...JUST A TRIFLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH/WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A INITIAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL FOLLOW IT.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 24\r\nHR...A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 120 HR...AND A LITTLE\r\nFASTER.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHEASTERLY TO\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR.  SEVERAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL...DISSIPATE\r\nTHE SYSTEM BEFORE 120 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nCALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 84 HR...AND THE\r\nECMWF HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH 120 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES... CALLING FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nWHILE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM FOR\r\n24 HR...ANY PERSISTENT BURST CONVECTION COULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A\r\nSTORM AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME IN THE NEXT 24 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 20.6N  48.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 21.6N  49.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 23.2N  50.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 25.0N  52.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 26.8N  53.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  55.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 32.0N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 34.5N  56.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nBUT A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES INCREASED TO 2.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. IN ADDITION...LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS A CIRCULATION\r\nBETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY WITH SEVERAL 35-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED\r\nWIND VECTORS...AND A COUPLE PEAKING AT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS THEN INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA...THE 13TH TROPICAL STORM\r\nOF THE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY\r\nFROM THE UPPER-LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED TO ITS SOUTH...RESULTING IN\r\nLIGHTER SHEAR NEAR MARIA. SHIPS MODEL MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE BUT\r\nSINCE EVERY OTHER GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL...WEAKENS IT...ONLY\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...GIVING A LOT\r\nOF WEIGHT TO THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...BUT IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. MARIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nIN BETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH ALONG\r\n65W. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A TIGHTLY-\r\nPACKED ENVELOPE OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 21.3N  50.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 22.2N  51.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N  53.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.0N  54.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 33.0N  57.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ITS SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THE OUTFLOW\r\nIS EXPANDING PRIMARILY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. T-NUMBERS FROM ALL\r\nTHREE AGENCIES ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. SINCE MARIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nAWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...\r\nAND NOW THAT SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS BOTH FORECAST MARIA TO BE A\r\nHURRICANE WITH 85 KNOTS...I AM CONFIDENT IN BRINGING THE WINDS UP A\r\nLITTLE BIT MORE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AS\r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY WHEN THE GFS DISSIPATES THE\r\nCYCLONE SOON. \r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES\r\nAT 11 KNOTS...TRAPPED IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST AND\r\nTHE WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS THE UPPER-LOW\r\nWEAKENS...MARIA SHOULD TURN MORE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A NEW DEVELOPING\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.   MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED INDICATING A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AND\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 22.0N  50.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 23.3N  52.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N  53.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.0N  54.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 30.0N  55.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 32.5N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 34.0N  57.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 36.0N  58.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF MARIA HAD DETERIORATED MARKEDLY DURING\r\nBETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z... WITH SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE INFRARED\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMI AT 2152Z AND\r\nFROM SSMIS AT 2324Z REVEALED VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND ONLY REMAINING IN LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DATA T NUMBERS HAD COME DOWN TO 2.5.  MORE\r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE TEMPTING TO ADJUST\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD... SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nIT IS A LITTLE CHALLENGING TO PRECISELY LOCATE THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION... BUT WITH THE HELP OF THE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES JUST\r\nBEFORE 00Z... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10... SIMILAR TO\r\nEARLIER TODAY.  THE STORM IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE\r\nWESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST TO\r\nWEST ALONG ABOUT 25N.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nGRADUAL TURN... BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO... WITH A\r\nLITTLE MORE SPREAD BEYOND THAT TIME.  THE LATTER PORTIONS OF SOME\r\nOF THESE MODEL FORECASTS ARE A LITTLE COMPLICATED... WITH A VARIETY\r\nOF EVOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS SUGGESTS A WEAKENED MARIA WILL MERGE IN\r\nABOUT FOUR DAYS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR BERMUDA TO FORM A\r\nSTRENGTHENING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5. THE UKMET DOES NOT\r\nFORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BUT HAS MARIA STALLING EAST\r\nOF BERMUDA BY THAT TIME... AND THERE IS NOTHING LEFT OF MARIA IN\r\nTHE GFS BY 72 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE CLEARER THAN LAST NIGHT. \r\nTHE 18Z GFDL... AS IN THE EARLIER 12Z RUN... FORECASTS MARIA TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS\r\nSIMILAR.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... HOWEVER... FORECAST AT LEAST\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING OF MARIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nFORECAST MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE... BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nDISORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION AND THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE...\r\nDELAY THE STRENGTHENING A LITTLE LONGER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 22.4N  51.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 23.7N  52.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  54.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N  55.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 29.3N  55.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 34.0N  57.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 36.0N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005\r\n \r\nMARIA IS GENERATING A MASS OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C\r\nNEAR OR NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW FAR NORTH\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO CIRRUS OBSCURING THE\r\nCENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA.  THE STORM HAS FAIR CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11...UNCERTAIN MAINLY BECAUSE\r\nTHE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A FASTER MOTION.  MARIA IS BETWEEN THE\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A COMPLEX DEEP\r\nLAYER TROUGH TO THE WEST.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD MOVE THE STORM\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR AS INDICATED BY ALL THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A RANGE OF MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS OF HOW MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFS LOSES THE STORM...WHILE THE\r\nUKMET MAKES IT LARGE AND STRONGER WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE\r\nGFDL RACES IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.  GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAFTER 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS DEVELOPING SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND IS FORECAST TO\r\nEXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR FOR 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL STRENGTHEN THE STORM TO 70 KT IN 48 HR AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL.  AFTER THAT TIME...GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 23.4N  52.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 24.6N  53.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 26.6N  54.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  55.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 30.2N  56.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 33.0N  57.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 34.5N  57.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 36.0N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AND ROUND\r\nCLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. AT 12Z...T-NUMBERS\r\nONLY SUPPORTED 45 KNOTS...BUT SINCE THEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION\r\nHAS IMPROVED AND THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A FEW 50-KNOT WIND\r\nVECTORS. THEREFORE...NITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50\r\nKNOTS. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AWAY FROM THE\r\nUPPER-LOW ...AND STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE MODEST INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTED BY SHIPS AND THE\r\nAGGRESSIVE GFDL WHICH BRINGS MARIA TO 100 KNOTS IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nMARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE FASTER...ABOUT 13\r\nKNOTS...BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS\r\nPERSISTENT PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MARIA ON A NORTHWESTERLY TO\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BE WEAK...MARIA SHOULD ALREADY BE APPROACHING THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BROUGHT MARIA NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nNORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nA FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT 12-FOOT SEAS ARE EXTENDING\r\nOUTWARD MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 25.1N  53.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N  55.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 30.5N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 32.0N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 36.5N  57.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 38.0N  52.9W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. THE\r\nCENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THERE IS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE\r\nOUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LASTEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS\r\nTHAT MARIA IS DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nBEEN AVERAGING AROUND 4.2 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND A\r\nWARM OCEAN IS AHEAD OF MARIA...AND I CAN NOT IGNORE THE SHIPS...THE\r\nGFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH BRING THE MARIA TO NEAR\r\n100 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MARIA TO\r\nREACH AT LEAST 90 KNOTS AND THEN SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS AS THE CIRCULATION APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.\r\nMARIA SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS\r\nMOTION IS CONTROLLED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE\r\nIS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED. ONCE MARIA REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERLIES AHEAD OF\r\nA TROUGH IT SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS\r\nUNCERTAIN BECAUSE ALL MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THERE IS A\r\nLARGE VARIATION IN THE STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AMONG\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 26.1N  54.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N  56.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 30.0N  57.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  57.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  58.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  57.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 39.0N  53.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 41.0N  48.1W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2005\r\n \r\nMARIA APPEARED TO BE ON THE CUSP OF HURRICANE STATUS EARLIER\r\nTODAY... BUT CONVECTION HAS SINCE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS VIGOROUS.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED... ALTHOUGH MAYBE NOW\r\nA LITTLE MORE ELONGATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB... AND BOTH\r\nAGENCIES HAVE ANALYZED A DATA T NUMBER OF 3.5. THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT.  THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE TRYING TO\r\nMAKE A COMEBACK AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO... SO\r\nTHE RECENT SPUTTERING MIGHT ONLY BE TEMPORARY.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 330/12 KT IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nAND TO THE EAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE STEERING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS BEING PROVIDED BY A LOW TO MIDDLE\r\nLEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF MARIA. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS... RESULTING IN ONLY A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHEREAFTER... A MIDDLE LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nAND ERODE THE RIDGE... AND ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD AND AWAY\r\nFROM NORTH AMERICA. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nBEFORE THE RECURVATURE... BUT AS USUAL DIFFER IN THE SUBSEQUENT\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS WHICH DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN THE FASTER GFS\r\nTHAT KEEPS THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA SEEMINGLY TOO WEAK. THIS IS\r\nJUST A HAIR TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS AND IS FASTER AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nMARIA HAD BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY WITHIN A WEAK SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT... BENEATH A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BERMUDA AND A\r\nLARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nIT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...\r\nAND SINCE THE SSTS WILL REMAIN GREATER THAN 28C DURING THIS\r\nPERIOD... SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED... BUT NOT AS\r\nMUCH AS BEFORE DUE TO THE RECENT LEVELLING OFF AND LESS BULLISH\r\nGUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT... WHICH IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND FAVORS THE\r\nGFDL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS... MARIA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE RIDGE. THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR COMBINED WITH COOLER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 27.1N  54.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 28.6N  55.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 30.8N  56.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 33.0N  57.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 35.2N  56.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 38.5N  53.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 41.0N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 42.5N  45.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING AS REVEALED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. A 03/2333Z SSMI OVERPASS AND A 04/0152Z AMSU OVERPASS BOTH\r\nINDICATED NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL FEATURES...AND THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION\r\nSINCE THEN...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER. A T4.0/65\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATE WAS PROVIDED BY BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ODT\r\nVALUES RANGE BETWEEN T4.3 TO T4.5. THEREFORE...MARIA HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 34N LATITUDE.\r\nAFTER MARIA REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GRADUAL\r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...MORE RAPID MOTION IS FORECAST AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nAND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST\r\nAND ACCELERATES MARIA TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND MARIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND OVER SSTS\r\nOF AT LEAST 28C FOR THE NEXT 36-42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...SOME MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE SMALL INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND EYE NOTED IN\r\nMICROWAVE DATA...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MARIA REACHING 90 KT.\r\nBY 48 HOURS...THOUGH...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER STEADILY\r\nCOOLER WATER WHILE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOF 30-40 KT...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING. BY 96\r\nHOURS...MUCH COOLER WATER AND INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 28.0N  55.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N  55.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 31.6N  56.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 33.4N  56.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 35.2N  55.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 38.7N  51.8W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 41.0N  47.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 42.5N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT\r\n4.0...CORRESPONDING TO A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  MARIA HAS\r\nFAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY IN\r\nCHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.  THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO TRAVERSE WARM WATERS SO STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY UNTIL\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO OCCUR IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  IN 4-5 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT MARIA WILL BE TRANSFORMING INTO A VIGOROUS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nMOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/11.  MARIA IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nA 500 MB TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...AND APPROACH MARIA'S LONGITUDE WITHIN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED AT 3-5 DAYS PREDICTED BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODELS.  SOME GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW MARIA OR ITS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL VERSION BECOMING WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE TROUGH AND ACCELERATING EASTWARD.  OTHER MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE TROUGH COULD BYPASS THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES AND SHOWS NO ACCELERATION\r\nTHROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 28.8N  55.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 30.3N  56.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 32.3N  56.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 34.1N  56.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 35.9N  54.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 39.0N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 41.0N  45.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 42.5N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005\r\n\r\nAN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES TODAY...AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS NOW SUPPORT 75-KT WINDS.  SINCE THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nWELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW...A WELL-DEFINED INNER\r\nCORE...AND IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nSEEMS LIKELY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...MARIA IS LIKELY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nI HAVE BLENDED THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AS GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...SO WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE UNDERWAY BY THEN.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nMARIA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA WILL BE RATHER LARGE AND VIGOROUS\r\nFOR A WHILE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/12...PERHAPS 13 KT IN THE\r\nSHORTER TERM.  THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE\r\nSAME.  A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 70W WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD\r\nAND IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS.  THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  IN SPITE OF THE FASTER INITIAL\r\nMOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 30.3N  56.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 31.7N  56.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 33.3N  56.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 34.7N  55.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 35.8N  54.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 38.5N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 41.0N  46.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 43.5N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 04 2005\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS BEEN EVIDENT THIS\r\nEVENING... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE\r\nT4.5/77 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.  MARIA STILL\r\nHAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND\r\nWIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK.  A SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN\r\nMIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AS MARIA MOVES FARTHER NORTH SHOULD INCREASE\r\nTHE SHEAR AND BRING ON GRADUAL WEAKENING... UNTIL THE HURRICANE\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS AND LOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11... WHICH IS JUST A BIT TO THE\r\nLEFT AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THIS ESTIMATE IS\r\nBASED ON A COUPLE OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS... ON CONTINUITY... AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN GOES IR IMAGERY SINCE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN\r\nCLEARLY DISCERNIBLE SINCE JUST BEFORE SUNSET.  IT ALSO SEEMS THAT\r\nVERY RECENTLY MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY... SO THE ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION COULD BE A FEW MILES TOO FAST.  EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE\r\nSTARTING A LITTLE SOONER THAN EXPECTED... A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SHOULD OCCUR AS MARIA GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE NORTH AROUND\r\nTHE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN\r\nFROM THE WEST AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED AFTER MARIA EMERGES OVER MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nMARIA COULD REMAIN A FAIRLY VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 31.0N  56.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 32.4N  57.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.9N  56.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 35.4N  55.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 36.7N  54.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 39.0N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 41.5N  45.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 44.0N  38.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005\r\n \r\nMARIA'S CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nAND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT. THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME MUCH MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED\r\nAND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN WITH AN\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KT...AND RAW ODT NUMBERS ARE NOW AS\r\nHIGH AS T4.9/87 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nCONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09. MARIA BRIEFLY SLOWED TO ABOUT\r\n5 KT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z...BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF 9 KT AS IT NEARS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. MARIA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN 24\r\nHOURS. BY 48-72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE MARIA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER WATER WHERE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STRETCHED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...BUT AN\r\nOUTFLOW CHANNEL EXISTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ONE APPEARS TO BE\r\nFORMING TO THE NORTH. THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. BY 36 HOURS...THOUGH\r\n...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO OR MERGES WITH A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 31.3N  57.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 32.7N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 34.4N  56.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  54.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 37.3N  52.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 39.3N  49.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 41.5N  43.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 44.5N  36.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 05 2005\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\nSTILL 4.5 AT 12Z...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT SINCE THEN...\r\nWITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC RING OF SURROUNDING COLD CLOUD TOPS. \r\nRECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR 4.8...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 85 KT.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nEVIDENT...PARTICULARLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS\r\nTO INFLUENCE MARIA...WITHIN 1-2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN SHOWN\r\nBY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...AFTER MARIA MOVES\r\nNORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE.  MARIA IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nIN ABOUT 4 DAYS...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ITS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nREMNANT WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT CYCLONE FOR A WHILE.\r\n\r\nMARIA HAS SLOWED WHILE TURNING TO THE NORTH...AND THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 360/7.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE\r\nHURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MARIA\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE...THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH\r\nACCELERATION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OT\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 31.8N  56.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 33.0N  56.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 34.4N  55.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 35.8N  54.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 37.0N  52.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 39.0N  48.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 42.0N  41.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 46.0N  33.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE MORE DURING THE DAY.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB NOW GIVE A WIND SPEED OF 90\r\nKT.  AN EXCELLENT TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1556Z SHOWED THAT A CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL STRUCTURE WAS DEVELOPING....SO THE STRENGTH WILL PROBABLY\r\nFLUCTUATE UP OR DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST...WHICH\r\nIS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.  BY 4 DAYS OR\r\nSOONER...GLOBAL MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW MARIA TRANSFORMING INTO A\r\nLARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE\r\nBEEN EXPANDED SOMEWHAT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS AND THIS IS PROBABLY A\r\nCONSERVATIVE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD...360/8.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER ADVISORIES.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND A CELL OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IN THIS ADVISORY IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 32.6N  56.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.6N  56.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 34.9N  55.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 36.3N  53.4W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 37.4N  51.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 40.0N  46.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 43.0N  39.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 48.0N  33.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE APPEARS A LITTLE LESS RAGGED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO AND THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T5.5/102 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB... WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM\r\nCIMSS ARE NEAR 100 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100\r\nKT... MAKING MARIA A MAJOR HURRICANE.  MARIA HAS 24 HOURS OR LESS\r\nTO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY.  INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER.   MARIA SHOULD REACH MUCH COOLER WATERS AT\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/5...\r\nAND THE SHORTER TERM MOTION MIGHT BE EVEN A LITTLE SLOWER.  SINCE\r\nTHE MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EMERGING OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN\r\nCANADA HAS JUST ABOUT REACHED THE LONGITUDE OF MARIA... THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY\r\nA LITTLE BEHIND IT DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION.  THE FORECAST\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND IS ALSO A BLEND\r\nBETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND GFDL AND THE SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD\r\nNOGAPS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 32.9N  56.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  55.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 35.3N  54.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 36.6N  52.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 37.8N  50.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 40.5N  45.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 44.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 49.5N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT MARIA PEAKED IN INTENSITY ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO. THE NOW\r\nIS HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE RAGGED AND OPEN TO THE WEST...AND CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE\r\nIMPRESSIVE...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS\r\nNOW ENTERING THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY CURRENT\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS MOVING AT 020/06. THE NARROW RIDGE MID-LEVEL TO NORTH OF\r\nMARIA IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY ERODE OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY MOVE A LITTLE FASTER.\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS...AND APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO LIFT OUT MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nRAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER BY 72 HOURS.\r\nBY THE END OF THE PERIOD...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nSIGNIFICANT HIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDRY AIR...COOLER WATER...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF\r\n30 KT IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE MARIA.\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME\r\nINCREASED BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY\r\nSTEADY INTENSITY FOR THEN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 33.3N  56.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 34.2N  55.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 35.6N  53.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 36.9N  52.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 38.2N  49.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 41.0N  44.3W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 50.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n\r\nMARIA HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS MORNING.  AN EYE IS NO LONGER\r\nEVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS\r\nAN EROSION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...INDICATIVE OF A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nSINCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER MARIA...AND\r\nTHE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NOT GETTING ANY WARMER...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...MARIA IS\r\nPREDICTED TO TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM\r\nMAINTAINING ITS IDENTITY THROUGH 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK HAS BENT TO THE RIGHT SOMEWHAT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 045/6.  THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD HIGHER\r\nLATITUDES...THE STEERING CURRENT INCREASES.  THEREFORE A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...ON A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD\r\nHEADING...IS CALLED FOR.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 33.8N  55.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 34.5N  54.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 35.9N  52.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 37.4N  50.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 38.8N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 41.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 45.5N  36.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 51.0N  29.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS SLOWLY WEAKENING.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 70 KT\r\nWHICH IS BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA. \r\nWATER VAPOR ANIMATION... ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nCIMMS...AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERSIST...SO FURTHER WEAKENING...AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...IS LIKELY.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS HOWEVER...NWP MODELS\r\nDEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A STRONG CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...\r\nINDICATING THAT MARIA WILL SOON BEGIN TO TAP ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC\r\nSOURCES.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AT 55 KT\r\nTO REFLECT THE TRANSITION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 045/6.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE...OR IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nANTICIPATED AS MARIA MOVES INTO A STRONGER STEERING FLOW AT HIGHER\r\nLATITUDES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nTRACK PREDICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS METHOD...CONU.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 34.3N  55.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 35.1N  53.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 36.5N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 37.8N  50.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 39.3N  48.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 42.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 46.0N  37.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 51.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON MARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING PRIMARY\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65\r\nKT...AND BASED ON THE WEAKER SATELLITE SIGNATURE SINCE 00Z THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT.  MARIA SHOULD WEAKEN A\r\nLITTLE FURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN\r\nCONTINUE AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH AT\r\nLEAST 120 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/7.  MARIA IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE STORM SHOULD\r\nGENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION FOR THE NEXT FIVE\r\nDAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODEL CONU.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 34.7N  54.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 35.7N  52.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 37.1N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 38.5N  48.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 40.1N  46.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 44.0N  41.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 49.0N  34.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 53.5N  26.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE A POORLY DEFINED...LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING CONVECTION.\r\nTAFB AND SAB DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AND BASED\r\nON THE RECENT IMAGERY DEPICTING FURTHER SEPARATION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER FROM THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 55 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nFURTHER BEFORE IT BEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN CONTINUE\r\nAS A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE 06/2124Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/9.  MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING\r\nTHE CONU CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 35.2N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 36.0N  51.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 37.2N  49.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 38.6N  47.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 40.4N  45.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 45.0N  39.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 50.0N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 55.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0850Z INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STRONGER THAN\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WOULD SUGGEST ALONE...WITH MANY WIND\r\nVECTORS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAKING\r\nMARIA A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN...AND ALSO FOR GREATLY EXPANDING THE\r\nWIND RADII IN THE SHORT-TERM.  IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A\r\nTRUE REINTENSIFICATION DUE TO A TROUGH INTERACTION...OR IF MARIA\r\nHAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SUGGESTED BY ITS SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ANY EVENT...THE UPPER\r\nTROUGH THAT WAS SHEARING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE\r\nFROM MARIA... POSSIBLY AIDING THE GROWTH OF THE SYSTEM.  MARIA IS\r\nBEGINNING TO HAVE A COMMA-LIKE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nWITH THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IMMINENT.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN BEFORE IT BECOMES\r\nFULLY EXTRATROPICAL ...THEN CONTINUE AS A LARGE AND STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/12 WITH A SHORTER TERM MOTION CLOSER TO\r\n045/14.  MARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nCURRENT NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE\r\nMORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT FIVE\r\nDAYS.  AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN\r\nTHE 2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS BUT TO THE LEFT THEREAFTER SINCE THERE IS MORE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 36.0N  50.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 36.8N  49.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 38.2N  47.4W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 39.8N  45.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 41.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 46.0N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 51.5N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 58.0N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA\r\nWITH HINTS OF AN EYE TRYING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 70 KT...THOUGH THE CYCLONE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER AS\r\nEVIDENCED BY A RECENT AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 976 MB FROM CIMSS.\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS CROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND A SLOW WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE WEAKENING MIGHT\r\nBE A BIT SLOWER THAN A TYPICAL TROPICAL SYSTEM BECAUSE OF MARIA\r\nSLOWLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THIS HURRICANE TO BE A LARGE POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS. \r\n\r\nAFTER A BRIEF MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... MARIA HAS RESUMED\r\nA MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 045/12 KT.  THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nMARIA IS MOVING WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH A LITTLE ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.  AN UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DROP WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN THE\r\n2 TO 3 DAY TIMEFRAME AND PULL MARIA MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT A BIT\r\nSLOWER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 36.9N  50.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 37.9N  49.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 39.4N  46.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 40.8N  44.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 42.5N  42.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 46.5N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 52.0N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 58.0N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIA IS AGAIN DECREASING AS THE\r\nHURRICANE INGESTS DEEP-LAYER COOLER AND DRYER AIR.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA AT 2106Z....AND A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  MARIA SHOULD\r\nLOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BUT IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS MOVING 050/12.  A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITHOUT\r\nMUCH ACCELERATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 120 HR.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS DONE THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HR AND ON THE LEFT SIDE AFTER THAT.  THE 72-120 HR\r\nPORTION OF THE TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS\r\nOF THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 37.5N  49.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 38.6N  47.7W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 40.2N  45.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 41.7N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 43.2N  41.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 47.0N  36.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 52.0N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 58.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT MARIA IS COMPLETING THE FINAL STAGE\r\nOF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED\r\nCONSIDERABLY IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED\r\nOVER THE EAST SIDE.  A RATHER LARGE REGION OF MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS\r\nWITH EMBEDDED DEEP CONVECTION STRETCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT...SPREADING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT.  AN EXTENSIVE...SHARP\r\nEDGED...CIRRUS SHIELD IS EVIDENT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AS THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW INTERACTS WITH A POLAR JET FINGER.  BASED ON THE\r\nSATELLITE ANALYSIS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EVEN YESTERDAY MORNING'S MODERATE\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION WAS INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSFORMATION STAGE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF 45 KT...55 KT...AND 77 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  EVEN THOUGH MARIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE TRANSITION IN 24 HOURS...IT IS LIKELY TO\r\nCONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 050/11.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nINFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFF THE\r\nCOAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND\r\nFOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 38.3N  48.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 39.4N  46.9W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 41.0N  44.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 42.4N  42.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 44.2N  39.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 48.5N  35.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 54.0N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 59.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT MARIA REMAINS A\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE. HIGH-RESOLUTION\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT... WHICH IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY RECENT AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS. ALTHOUGH MARIA IS\r\nGAINING SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... INCLUDING AN\r\nEXPANSION OF THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND A LARGE BROAD WIND\r\nFIELD...THE TRANSITION IS NOT YET COMPLETE.  CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS\r\nDIAGRAMS FROM FSU ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOSTLY WARM\r\nCORE. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY...AND\r\nIT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS A STRONG LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11. MARIA CONTINUES MOVING\r\nRATHER SLOWLY BECAUSE THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FAR\r\nTO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA. FOR NOW...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE\r\nMARIA ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PUSH\r\nOFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA CAUSING MARIA TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS...BETWEEN THE GFS AND NOGAPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 39.1N  47.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 40.2N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 41.7N  43.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 43.3N  41.3W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 45.5N  39.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 51.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 56.0N  31.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 61.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA WITH AN\r\nEYE-LIKE STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. AMSU AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. MARIA HAS RETAINED\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...CUT OFF\r\nFROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES... AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS\r\nDIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD POSSIBLY DELAY FULL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FOR A DAY OR SO. AFTER A SLOW WEAKENING\r\nOVER 23-25C WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS... THE CYCLONE HAS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL TO REINTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH\r\nWINDS OF HURRICANE-FORCE BECAUSE OF ENERGY FROM A BAROCLINIC\r\nTROUGH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...ESTIMATED AT\r\n045/10.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM EARLIER\r\nWITH MODEL GUIDANCE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER-TERM FORECAST\r\nIS HOW MUCH OF A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE\r\nAN UPPER TROUGH LEAVING SOUTHEAST CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBETWEEN CONU AND THE GFS SHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH\r\nAND...CONSQUENTLY...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE SOUTH OF ICELAND. \r\nWIND RADII FORECASTS ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS MODEL.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 39.5N  46.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 40.5N  45.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 46.0N  38.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 53.0N  35.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 59.0N  32.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 63.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AGAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA AND IS\r\nNOW CONFINED TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYE-LIKE HOLE IN THE LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL CLOUD STRUCTURE.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER 25C WATER AND\r\nMOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE ALL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT THERE WAS NO\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS EVENING TO SHOW IF MARIA IS STILL A\r\nHURRICANE.  BASED ON THE COOLER WATER AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT.  MARIA\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 36 HR AS IT LOSES TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OVER COOLER WATER...THEN RE-INTENSIFY AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  MARIA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR 24 HR...THEN\r\nTURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS IT INTERACTS WITH\r\nTHE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 39.7N  45.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 40.7N  44.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 42.3N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 44.8N  39.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 47.6N  37.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 55.0N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 60.0N  29.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 64.0N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nMARIA CONTINUES TO BE QUITE RESILIENT AS LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND AN EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO\r\nDECREASE AND ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. \r\nEVEN THOUGH MARIA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVE COOLER WATER...THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE STILL IMPLIES A PRIMARILY WARM CORE STRUCTURE.\r\nACCORDINGLY...MARIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TROPICAL IN NATURE\r\nTHROUGH 12 HOURS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL THEREAFTER.  DURING THE\r\nTRANSITION...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  MARIA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG\r\nTROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 40.2N  44.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 41.2N  42.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 43.6N  39.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 46.8N  36.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 50.4N  34.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 57.1N  28.9W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 62.0N  24.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 64.5N  18.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS THAT MARIA HAS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT\r\n50-55 KT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS THAT ARE\r\nUNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE COMES AND GOES ON SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES WITH BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE\r\nCENTER. A COMBINATION OF COOL UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURES AND SSTS\r\nHOLDING STEADY NEAR 24-25C HAS PROBABLY HELD OFF THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION OF MARIA LONGER THAN EXPECTED. CYCLONE PHASE SPACE\r\nDIAGRAMS FROM FSU WERE CORRECT YESTERDAY IN DELAYING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF MARIA AND NOW SUGGEST THIS TRANSITION\r\nSHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 988 MB IN ACCORDANCE WITH A PRESSURE FROM BUOY\r\n44901 OF 992.3 MB A FEW HOURS AGO WHEN THE CENTER OF THE STORM WAS\r\nABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS\r\nAND CIRA ARE ALSO LOWER THAN 990 MB.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS SLOWLY ACCELERATING...NOW MOVING 050/13. THIS ACCELERATION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE AS MARIA LOSES STEERING FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAND IS INFLUENCED BY A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST\r\nCANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD DROP SOUTHWARD AND CAPTURE THE CYCLONE\r\nIN A DAY OR TWO... WITH FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS LIKELY IN\r\nPLACE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO HURRICANE-FORCE. AT THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD THE STORM WILL PROBABLY BE ABSORBED INTO A LOW\r\nOVER SCANDINAVIA. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED AT THE INITIAL TIME\r\nUSING QUIKSCAT WITH FORECAST RADII USING THE GFS MODEL DURING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STAGE OF MARIA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 40.9N  42.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 42.3N  40.7W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 45.1N  38.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 48.5N  35.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 52.0N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 59.0N  26.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 65.0N   8.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE EYE STRUCTURE OF MARIA IS\r\nWEAKENING AND BECOMING OPEN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE...IT IS ABOUT\r\nTIME. SATELLITE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS TAKING\r\nON MORE CHARACTERISTICS OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF MARIA. \r\nSOUTHWEST SHEAR MAY ALSO BE INCREASING A BIT DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE. ANY SHORT-TERM WEAKENING SHOULD END WHEN\r\nMID-LATITUDE ENERGY GETS CLOSER TO MARIA OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY\r\nBRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF MARIA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nIN A COUPLE DAYS.  CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nIS GAINING MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A SHALLOWER WARM\r\nCORE AND MORE ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nWILL PROBABLY OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO LARGE CHANGES IN THE INITIAL MOTION... ABOUT 045/13.\r\nSTRONGER DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BE AFFECTING MARIA\r\nSOON AND CAUSE SOME ACCELERATION. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT OF A NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA CAPTURES THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF PREVIOUS... BRINGING A STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF ICELAND IN THE MEDIUM\r\nRANGE... THEN PROBABLY BECOMING ABSORBED INTO A LOW OVER\r\nSCANDINAVIA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 41.6N  41.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 43.4N  39.7W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 46.7N  37.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 50.5N  35.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 54.5N  33.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 60.5N  27.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 66.0N  14.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":35,"Date":"2005-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA IS STARTING TO LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY TROUGH AND MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HR...BUT CONTINUE AND\r\nEVEN RE-INTENSIFY AS A BAROCLINIC LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY\r\nANOTHER LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR NEAR OR OVER SCANDINAVIA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/14.  MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION FOR 72 HR...THEN GRADUALLY TURN\r\nEASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 42.5N  39.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 44.5N  38.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 48.2N  35.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 52.0N  33.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 55.7N  31.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 61.0N  24.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 66.0N   9.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":36,"Date":"2005-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARIA HAS FINALLY EVOLVED INTO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. AS SUCH...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON MARIA. ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. MARIA MIGHT WEAKEN IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM PRIOR TO STRONG BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS RE-INTENSIFYING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL MARIA INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH WINDS TO\r\nHURRICANE FORCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15.  MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE FOR 72 HR...THEN GRADUALLY TURN\r\nEASTWARD AS IT APPROACHES ICELAND.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE FORECAST WIND\r\nRADII ARE ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 43.6N  38.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 45.8N  36.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 49.7N  34.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 54.1N  31.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 56.6N  28.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 62.1N  18.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 65.5N   2.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DATA DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOW ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO\r\nBE STARTED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH HAS MEANDERED IN\r\nA CYCLONIC LOOP FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO\r\nBECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE\r\nBAHAMAS...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS\r\nTIME...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nCOAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND...PEAKING\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50\r\nKT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN\r\nINDICATED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION HAS MEANDERED IN A CYCLONIC LOOP\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION LAST NIGHT.\r\nBECAUSE OF THIS CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOVERS NEAR THE\r\nSYSTEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE AND START TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nQUITE SCATTERED AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM UNDER WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS...WITH THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS MOVING\r\nTHE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION\r\nTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.\r\nTHE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE GFDL MODEL IS\r\nSIMILAR...BUT  SLOWER...TO THE NOGAPS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE\r\nTO THAT OF THE GFDL...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nSTATIONARY MOTION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 27.8N  67.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 27.8N  67.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 27.9N  68.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 28.0N  69.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 28.3N  70.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 29.5N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 31.0N  72.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 32.0N  70.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED AND DEEPENED WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY\r\nROBUST AND WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -80C.  THE 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUPPORT 30-35 KT... AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nIMPRESSIVE SINCE THEN... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n35 KT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A VERY RECENT BUOY REPORT OF 30\r\nKT TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION.  WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL DOES NOT EVEN FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EVER REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS... WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY UNDERDONE... THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ABOUT 60 HOURS.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT BE QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE... BUT GIVEN\r\nTHE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND... IT IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AS SHOWS NATE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nNATE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS... AND\r\nTHE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE SMALL LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER SEEN EARLIER ON VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS TO HAVE ROTATED\r\nEASTWARD INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WHICH IS CENTERED\r\nFARTHER EAST.  AN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 23Z ALSO SUGGESTED THIS LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION IS CENTERED FARTHER EAST... AND RECENT SHORTWAVE IR\r\nIMAGERY HINTS AT A VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS ALL OVER THE PLACE... WITH NOGAPS SHOWING CONTINUED WESTWARD\r\nMOTION... AS DOES GFDL BUT NOT UNTIL SOME MEANDERING IS COMPLETED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALL WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT\r\nLEFT BEHIND BY THE MID LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING MARIA FARTHER OUT TO\r\nSEA.  WHILE A WEAK RIDGE SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST MODELS TO THEN BREAK\r\nDOWN AND FORCE NATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AND IS AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  IT IS SAFE TO SAY THIS IS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 28.0N  66.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 28.1N  67.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 28.3N  67.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 28.6N  68.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 29.1N  69.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 30.5N  70.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 31.5N  70.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 32.5N  67.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nA PLETHORA OF SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nINDICATES NATE HAD BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE NORTHWEST\r\nPORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nLAYER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN THE\r\nMICROWAVE DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/02...BUT THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY\r\nBE QUASI-STATIONARY. NATE IS TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW\r\nPATTERN BETWEEN HURRICANE MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING\r\nDISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. MODERATE NORTHERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nBETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN AS IT SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHIS SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND COMPLETELY ERODES THE\r\nRIDGE AND LIFTS OUT NATE FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nDEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST TRACK HAD\r\nTO BE SHIFTED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nTWO ADVISORIES WERE INDICATING. THE CAUSE FOR THE FASTER MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE MODELS NOW INITIALIZING AND MAINTAINING A MORE\r\nVERTICALLY DEEP AND STRONGER SYSTEM THAN IN PREVIOUS MODELS RUNS.\r\nTHIS FASTER MOTION NOW PLACES BERMUDA UNDER THE THREAT OF POSSIBLE\r\nTROPICAL STORM-FORCE OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nNATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nSSTS OF 29C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. WITH SUCH A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL\r\nINNER CORE WIND FIELD...THESE CONDITIONS WOULD USUALLY FAVOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER MAY RESULT IN SOME SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. AS A RESULT...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING AT A TYPICAL RATE OF\r\n20 KT PER 24 HOURS IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...\r\nINCREASING WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD CAP THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS AND INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 28.6N  66.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 28.7N  67.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N  67.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 29.4N  68.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 30.3N  68.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 32.0N  66.8W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 34.0N  62.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 38.5N  52.0W    55 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nNATE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF\r\nTHE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO NATE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL\r\nTRENDS.\r\n\r\nNATE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SO LITTLE MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NATE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF NATE. BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST OR\r\nWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH. NATE SHOULD\r\nTHEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nSHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE.\r\nTHEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 28.7N  66.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.8N  66.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  67.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  67.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 30.5N  67.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 32.5N  64.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 37.0N  53.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 42.5N  41.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CENTER DETERMINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 50 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nDIRECTLY OVER NATE...AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD NOT INTENSIFY BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nNATE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS OF MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN TO\r\nTHE WEST...AND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nHIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nDAYS AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN\r\nCONTINENT.  THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO WESTWARD MOTION\r\nBEFORE RECURVATURE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL TAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO TAKES THE\r\nCYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nBERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT\r\nWHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.  A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 28.7N  66.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 28.8N  67.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 29.2N  67.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 29.7N  67.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  66.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 33.5N  61.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  52.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 43.0N  38.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS\r\nSITUATED ABOUT 28 NM FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THE\r\nIMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE\r\nDEVELOPING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT...WHILE THE TAFB ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 65 KT. \r\nBASED ON THE INCREASE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED\r\nINNER CORE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nNATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA AND\r\nDEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING NATE'S LACK OF MOTION.\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF NATE.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY\r\nLITTLE MOTION...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD.  THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS\r\nTHEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nBASED OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A\r\nHURRICANE...WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE\r\nISLAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE\r\nREQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 28.8N  66.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  66.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 29.6N  66.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 30.5N  66.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 31.8N  64.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 35.0N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 38.5N  46.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 44.0N  33.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INTENSITY TABLE\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NATE HAS MOVED LITTLE\r\n...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A SLOW NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWARD DRIFT. A PARTIAL EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION GUESSTIMATE IS 315/02...BUT NATE COULD BE\r\nQUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF NATE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS BY ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AS\r\nSRONMG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE NORTH...OR LEFT...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE\r\nUKMET'S STRONG FAST AND RIGHT BIAS FROM THE OUTSET. ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THAT \r\nAN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THAT NATE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF\r\n35-45 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 28.8N  66.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 29.2N  66.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 30.1N  66.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 31.6N  64.7W    80 KT...NEAR BERMUDA\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  61.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 36.1N  53.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 39.5N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 44.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE THIS\r\nMORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 70 KT. \r\nTHEREFORE...NATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nBECOMES PROHIBITIVELY STRONG.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOT DEFINITIVE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD.  A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM\r\nTHE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN\r\nTURNING NATE TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BASED ON\r\nTHE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  \r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...NATE COULD STILL MOVE VERY NEAR\r\nOVER BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 29.2N  66.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  66.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 30.4N  65.2W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 31.6N  63.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 33.1N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 36.0N  50.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 39.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 43.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...WITH ODT ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nREACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT.  NATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A\r\nRAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC\r\nFLOW.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF STRONG\r\nWESTERLIES IS APPROACHING NATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FLOW MAY\r\nBEGIN TO RESTRICT AND/OR UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nBEGINS TO INCREASE.  THE GFS FORECASTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME\r\nABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AT 035/4. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nJUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS WEAKENING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL\r\nMOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY\r\nAND HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH\r\nTHAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED\r\nOVERNIGHT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 29.5N  65.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 30.1N  65.3W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  63.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 32.5N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 34.2N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  47.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 41.0N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 45.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM...RAGGED EYE WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO BE OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nDRY AIR IS BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nREACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT.  A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION EXISTS BEFORE THE UPPER WESTERLIES\r\nMOVE OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 040/5.  A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY\r\nMOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS\r\nMID-LATITUDE FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nTHEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT NATE WILL\r\nBECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 60\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE UKMET INDICATES BINARY INTERACTION WITH MARIA\r\nNEAR DAY 4...ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nSYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST KEEPS\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD\r\nNATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE\r\nWARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 29.8N  65.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 30.6N  64.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 31.9N  62.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 33.4N  58.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 35.1N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 38.0N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 42.0N  32.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 46.0N  21.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE\r\nTHIS MORNING FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH CONFIRMS THE 75-KT SATELLITE-BASED\r\nINTENSITY USED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINTENSITY USED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED\r\nIN SATELLITE APPEARNCE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE FLIGHT CREW .\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. NATE HAS FINALLY ROUNDED THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nNATE'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...COOLER WATER AND STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING AND\r\nTRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE\r\nAZORES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 30.2N  64.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  63.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 32.9N  60.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 34.5N  55.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  50.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 40.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 44.0N  28.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 48.1N  18.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nNATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO\r\nTHE EAST. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH AND\r\nIT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nSTILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NATE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.\r\n \r\nNATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE\r\nIS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE\r\nWITH THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 30.9N  63.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 32.0N  61.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 35.0N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 36.5N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 39.5N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  26.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 50.0N  17.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN INTTERMMITTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED\r\nBY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nNATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATINGLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nABOUT 14 KNOTS....WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 31.8N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  60.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 35.0N  55.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  46.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 41.0N  35.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB IMPLIES SOME STRENGTHENING.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  MORE RECENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBEGUN TO SHOW THE TELL-TALE SIGNS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...A\r\nRECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF NATE.  IN LIGHT\r\nOF THIS...NATE IS LIKELY PEAKING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. NATE SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.  LACKING SIGNIFICANT\r\nBAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.\r\n \r\nNATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OR 060/18. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...\r\nNATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN\r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 33.0N  60.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 34.3N  57.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 35.3N  52.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 36.2N  47.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 37.3N  43.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 44.0N  32.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nate","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS RAPIDLY DEGENERATED.  \r\nWHILE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS. \r\nGIVEN THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE LATEST\r\nUW-CIMSS RAW AODT VALUE OF 4.3 IS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 70 KT. NATE NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nSTRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION\r\nWHICH HAS PROVIDED A ONE-TWO PUNCH.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST NOW WEAKENS NATE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND BRINGS NATE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS. \r\nADDITIONALLY...NATE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A\r\nLITTLE QUICKER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS\r\nNOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE.\r\n \r\nNATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OR 065/19. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...\r\nNATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN\r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 33.6N  58.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 34.3N  55.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 35.1N  50.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 36.1N  44.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 37.3N  40.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 45.1N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NATE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW NATE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSTRAINTS\r\nOF THE TECHNIQUE. DUE TO THE DEGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND \r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUING TO LOWER...NATE HAS BEEN\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  NATE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY STRONG\r\nUPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR\r\nBEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION. NATE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nNATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070/21. NATE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO OR\r\nTHREE DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH SOON AFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH\r\nCONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 34.3N  54.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 35.1N  50.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 35.8N  46.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.8N  41.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 39.1N  37.1W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 47.0N  27.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nA COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL\r\nAIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NATE.  ALL OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS QUICKLY\r\nAS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 55\r\nKT....WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE\r\nHIGH... MOSTLY 25 KT OR GREATER... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION...NATE WILL\r\nBE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...ACCELERATING THE\r\nTRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nNATE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/21. THE\r\nCYCLONE EXPECTED TO WHIP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF MARIA FOR ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS... THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE GFS MODEL\r\nKEEPS NATE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS BEFORE\r\nBECOMING ABSORBED IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 34.8N  52.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 35.3N  48.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 36.0N  44.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 37.5N  39.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 40.5N  35.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 50.0N  26.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS DISSIPATED AND THE\r\nCYCLONE NOW CONSISTS ONLY OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  THE RAPID\r\nDEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nCOMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...32 KT AS MEASURED BY UW-CIMSS\r\nSATELLITE WINDS...AND DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW BASED ENTIRELY ON CONSTRAINTS AND\r\nCURRENTLY VARY FROM 35 KT TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT\r\nIS BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE AND A\r\nCIRA/NESDIS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 52 KT.  NATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nWITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY OVER SUB 26C\r\nSST.  THUS NATE SHOULD WEAKEN AT A MODERATE RATE.  NATE WILL BEGIN\r\nTO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS...BUT\r\nWILL LACK SUFFICIENT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. \r\n \r\nNOW THAT NATE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS BEING STEERED A LITTLE\r\nMORE EASTWARD OR APPROXIMATELY 085/21. SINCE THE RAPID DEGRADATION\r\nOF THE CONVECTION BEGINNING YESTERDAY...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nBEEN TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH.  BASED ON THIS AND THE\r\nALMOST DUE EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 34.8N  49.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 35.2N  45.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 36.1N  41.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 38.3N  37.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 42.2N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005\r\n \r\nNATE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND\r\nAPPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BEING CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. IF\r\nNATE DOES NOT PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT WILL NO LONGER MEET\r\nTHE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...BASED SOLELY ON CONSTRAINTS...ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n35 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A\r\nNEARBY SHIP WCZ8589 WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING VALUABLE INFORMATION\r\nREGARDING THE WIND AND SEAS RADII DURING THE LAST TWO ADVISORIES.\r\nLACKING THE NECESSARY CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS...THE\r\nREMNANT LOW OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE EVOLUTION OF MARIA INTO A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NONETHELESS...THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE\r\nAS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.\r\n \r\nNATE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED DUE EASTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nBEFORE AT 090/15.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE\r\nMAINTAINING NATE AS A MEDIUM TO DEEP FEATURE THUS ACCOUNTING FOR\r\nTHEIR POLEWARD TRACK BIAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED BAMS TRAJECTORY\r\nMODEL. NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT\r\nFROM THE WEST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 34.8N  48.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 34.8N  45.3W    40 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 35.5N  41.0W    40 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 37.2N  36.5W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 41.5N  31.8W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING WAS VERY REVEALING ON THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTRUCTURE OF NATE.  THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS... ABOUT 90 NM... IN COMBINATION WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND\r\nDISTRIBUTION.  IN ADDITION... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT NATE\r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR.  THEREFORE NATE IS BEING DECLARED AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...THOUGH IT HAS A FEW CHARACTERISTICS OF A REMNANT LOW AS\r\nWELL.  QUIKSCAT SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT SO THIS WILL BE\r\nIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNATE CONTINUES TO ZIP ALONG TO THE EAST... ABOUT 085/20.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE... WITH NATE BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  A GRADUAL BEND TO\r\nA NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE\r\nLOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. \r\nTHIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN AZORES COULD RECEIVE GALE-FORCE\r\nWINDS WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF NATE.  THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON NATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 34.6N  44.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 35.0N  41.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 36.5N  37.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 39.5N  32.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  28.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH\r\nCIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. HOWEVER...AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM...REDUCING\r\nTHE SHEAR...AND THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM\r\nWATERS FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nLATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nUNCERTAIN BUT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK SO LITTLE MOTION\r\nIS ANTICIPATED BUT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.\r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AND\r\nBE NEAR THE EAST COST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nHAS BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE\r\nEXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 26.5N  78.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 27.6N  79.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N  79.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 28.5N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 29.0N  80.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 29.5N  81.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AS INDICATED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH HAVE\r\nREMAINED AT 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. DATA FROM A NOAA\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOW THAT PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1008 MB AND THERE\r\nIS A WELL-DEFINED BUT BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. MOST OF THE\r\nWEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE\r\nTO A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH\r\nA GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. I AM A\r\nLITTLE BIT UNCOMFORTABLE BRINGING THE INTENSITY UP FARTHER WHEN THE\r\nGFDL DOES NOT STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE VERY WEAK AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS\r\nANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES THAT A SHORT WAVE\r\nWILL BYPASS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WILL NOT PICK IT\r\nUP...WHILE THE UK MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TAKING THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. IN GENERAL...SOME MODELS SHOW\r\nTRACKS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OTHERS SHOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 26.7N  78.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 27.2N  78.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 27.7N  79.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 28.1N  79.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 28.7N  80.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N  81.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE WSR-88D AT MELBOURNE SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSIXTEEN HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER ELONGATED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST.  THE EARLIER NOAA AIRCRAFT FLIGHT FOUND MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 27 KT MORE THAN 60 N MI AWAY FROM THE BROAD\r\nCENTER.  BASED ON A 27 KT WIND FROM BUOY 41010 AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DURING THE LAST 30 MIN OR SO...THE\r\nMELBOURNE RADAR HINTS THAT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE MAY BE\r\nFORMING.  THE NEXT NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE CYCLONE AT\r\nABOUT 06Z TO SEE IF THAT IS THE CASE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/3...WITH THE RADAR DATA\r\nHINTING AT A FASTER FORWARD MOTION.  TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON A\r\nSLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN THERE IS SERIOUS\r\nDIVERGENCE.  THE GFDL...GFDN...ECMWF...AND BAMS TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND BAMD TURN IT NORTHWARD AND\r\nEVEN NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nMODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nBETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE DIFFERENT\r\nTRACKS RESULT MAINLY FROM WHICH SEGMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL BE\r\nSTRONGER...AND IT IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME WHICH CLUSTER OF\r\nGUIDANCE WILL BE CORRECT.  THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nSPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND CALL FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR WHICH IS\r\nPROBABLY SLOWING DEVELOPMENT.  THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY LET UP IN\r\n12-24 HR AND ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE BAMS AND BAMD\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HR...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THAT\r\nTIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND FAR ABOVE THE GFDL FORECAST.  THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COULD COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO FEED COOLER\r\nAIR INTO THE CYCLONE...AND SHOULD THAT HAPPEN IT COULD THROW A\r\nMONKEY WRENCH INTO THE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 27.4N  78.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 27.7N  78.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 28.1N  79.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 28.5N  79.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 28.8N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 30.5N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM NOAA LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...\r\nBUT IT STILL REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY OF\r\n35 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE REPORTS OF 33 KT FROM DRIFTING\r\nBUOY 41542...LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND DOPPLER\r\nRADAR VELOCITIES OF 36-44 KT BETWEEN 10000 FT AND 12000 FT. THE\r\nHIGHEST RECON WIND REPORT HAS BEEN 42 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/07...BASED ON THE LAST 3 RECON POSITIONS.\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. THE MAJORITY OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE OPHELIA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HOURS\r\nAND THEN GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD...AND\r\nMAKE A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP EAST OF FLORIDA BY DAY 5. ONLY THE\r\nGFDL...SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKE OPHELIA\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN\r\nGULF. HOWEVER...THEY DO SO ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND ALSO AS A VERY\r\nWEAK SYSTEM. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY WELL EAST OF THOSE MODEL\r\nFORECASTS...AND THAT 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE BEEN RISING MORE QUICKLY\r\nALONG THE GULF COAST RATHER THAN FARTHER NORTH...SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nGFDL AND ECMWF MOELS ARE BUILDING TOO MUCH RIDGING TOO THE NORTH OF\r\nOPHELIA. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS EXPECTED\r\nTO GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODE THE EASTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL\r\nFLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND PUSH OPHELIA EASTWARD\r\nAWAY FROM FLORIDA BY 36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBUT SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nLONGER TIME PERIODS...POSSIBLE LANDFALL ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA OR\r\nGEORGIA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nOPHELIAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS \r\nFORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nUNDERNEATH A NARROW 200 MB RIDGE AXIZ WHILE REMAINING OVER 29C\r\nSSTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 28.3N  78.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.5N  79.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 28.8N  79.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 29.0N  80.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 29.4N  80.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 29.8N  80.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 30.1N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 30.0N  79.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS DEEP CONVECTION BUT STILL NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS AND FAIR OUTFLOW.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED\r\nON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45\r\nKNOTS. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK OPHELIA LATER THIS\r\nMORNING. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND A LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...SO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. SINCE THE GFS BRINGS\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OPHELIA BY THE END OR THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELED OFF BETWEEN 65\r\nAND 70 KNOTS. THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND IT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THAT OPHELIA WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT\r\nOFF FROM THE WESTERLIES AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY JUST OFF THE\r\nUNITED STATES SOUTHEAST COAST...RESULTING IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODELS ARE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT MAKING THE\r\nFORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. BOTH THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF BRING THE\r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS PROBABLY\r\nTHE WORSE CASE SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OTHER\r\nMODELS KEEP OFELIA LOOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE BEST\r\nOPTION IN THESE CASES OF LARGE MODEL DISAGREEMENT IS TO FORECAST\r\nLITTLE MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DRIFT BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT\r\nOPHELIA WILL LIKELY MEANDER JUST OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AND\r\nSOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. \r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 28.8N  79.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.2N  79.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 29.5N  80.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 29.8N  80.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  80.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 30.5N  80.3W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 30.5N  80.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO REPORT. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nNOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER... THERE IS\r\nPLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 996 MB BUT WINDS REMAIN AT 45\r\nKNOTS.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE\r\nFORECAST TO PREVAIL. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRACTICALLY\r\nKEEPS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MEANDERING WITHIN AN AREA OF ABOUT 100\r\nNAUTICAL MILES FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM\r\nWATER IN THIS AREA...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THEN\r\nDECREASE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. DUE TO THIS VARIABILITY...ONLY\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST...AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nMODELS CONTINUE IN GREAT DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK. THE\r\nGFS WHICH LOOPED THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nRUN...IS NOW SHOWING A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. THE NOGAPS WHICH\r\nEARLIER TURN OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM FLORIDA IS BRINGING\r\nTHE CYCLONE BACK TO THE U.S. COAST. THE GFDL STUBBORNLY INSISTS ON\r\nA TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA...AND THE STORY GOES\r\nON AND ON. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE THE LUXURY OF\r\nMAKING SUCH LARGE CHANGES IN TRACK EVERY SIX HOUR...THE BEST OPTION\r\nFOR WEAK STEERING CURRENT SCENARIOS IS TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY.  THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 28.9N  79.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 29.1N  79.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 29.5N  80.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 30.0N  80.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 30.3N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N  79.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OPHELIA REMAINS SOMEWHAT SHEARED\r\nTHIS EVENING...WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. \r\nTHE LATEST WSR-88D IMAGERY FROM MELBOURNE SHOWS A NEW BURST ABOUT\r\n25-30 N MI WNW OF THE CENTER...AND THAT THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM\r\nAPPEARS SOMEWHAT DRY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS\r\nEXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF 994 AND 995 MB...WITH MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 54 KT.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE DOPPLER WINDS FROM MELBOURNE...AND BASED ON THESE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  OPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THIS IS PRODUCING A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK\r\nSOUTHWARD AND STEER OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHILE THE\r\nECMWF CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND GFDN\r\nFORECAST SLOW AND LOOPING MOTION JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND\r\nGEORGIA COASTS FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD...THE\r\nFORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW MOTION...WITH THE NEW\r\nTRACK SIMILAR TO AND JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  SOME SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST THAT MODERATE SHEAR\r\nWILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  INDEED...IF THE STORM\r\nGETS NORTH OF 30N THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE. IN\r\nADDITION...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON\r\nTHE STORM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.  THE GFDL BRINGS\r\nOPHELIA TO 84 KT...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AT 64\r\nKT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND BRING OPHELIA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR.  THIS IS ALSO A\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.  SHOULD OPHELIA\r\nSTRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 28.9N  79.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 29.1N  79.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 29.4N  79.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 29.8N  79.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 30.3N  79.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.5N  79.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  78.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 30.5N  78.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT AND MELBOURNE WSR-88D\r\nDOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 60-64 KT BETWEEN 6000-7000 FT SUPPORT\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...RECON DATA\r\nJUST IN INDICATES SURFACE WINDS OF 56 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n987 MB. IF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS...THEN A SPECIAL ADVISORY\r\nWILL BE ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND LOWER THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS STATIONARY.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN IN WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 TO PERHAPS 5 DAYS AS\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT...WHILE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERLY...AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nMUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON A SOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nWITH A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW\r\nFAR EAST WILL OPHELIA GO BEFORE IT LOOPS BACK TO THE WEST. THE GFDL\r\nIS THE FARTHEST WEST MODEL AND MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO SOUTHEAST\r\nGEORGIA IN 96 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER AND TAKES\r\nOPHELIA MORE THAN 500 NMI EAST OF ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE REST OF\r\nTHE MODELS ARE SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS\r\nSLOW AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECASTS AND IS TO THE LEFT\r\nOF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH I FEEL HAS A\r\nFAST BIAS DUE TO THE MUCH FASTER GFS MODEL. THE GFS PERFORMED\r\nSIMILARLY DURING HURRICANE JEANNE LAST YEAR AND HAD SOME VERY LARGE\r\nTRACK ERRORS.\r\n \r\nSLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE OPHELIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS AND UNDER LIGHT OT\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THROUGH 96 HOURS. AFTER THAT\r\n...MORE STRENGTHENING THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST COULD OCCUR\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 10 KT. HOWEVER...THE\r\nEXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PRECLUDES\r\nINCREASING THE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PERIODS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nALL INTERESTS IN NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DEVELOPING CYCLONE.  SHOULD OPHELIA\r\nSTRENGTHEN FASTER AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 28.7N  79.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 29.0N  79.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 29.4N  79.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 29.9N  79.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 30.0N  79.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 30.2N  78.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 30.3N  78.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 30.0N  78.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE REFLECTIVIES IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE...WITH DOPPLER\r\nVELOCITIES AROUND 65 KT AT 6000 FT.  THE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE\r\nSPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST.  A WIND GUST TO 41 KT WAS JUST\r\nMEASURED AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN SITE.  THERE IS WELL-DEVELOPED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  OPHELIA IS OVER\r\nWARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15\r\nKT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE UNTIL 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER THAN INDICATED. \r\nANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE\r\nSTORM AROUND 18Z.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...AND THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE OVERALL MOTION SINCE YESTERDAY.  OPHELIA IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 2\r\nSUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELLS.  THERE ARE NO APPARENT SYNOPTIC-\r\nSCALE FEATURES TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT MOTION.  HOWEVER THE GFS\r\nAND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT SOME WESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD\r\nNEAR OPHELIA AND PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UNITED\r\nSTATES EAST COAST...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER EASTWARD\r\nMOTION.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEASTWARD MOTION WHICH SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\nTHE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND LOOPS OPHELIA BACK\r\nTOWARD THE COAST BY 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AS THE\r\nBULK OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 28.6N  79.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 28.7N  79.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 29.0N  79.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 29.5N  78.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 31.0N  76.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  76.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 30.5N  76.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nWSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES OF 80-85 KT ARE SHOWING UP IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN EYEWALL OF OPHELIA.  THESE WIND SPEEDS ARE AT AN ELEVATION\r\nOF ABOUT 6500 FEET.  USING A STANDARD VERTICAL PROFILE OF WIND\r\nSPEED DETERMINED FROM GPS DROPSONDES IN TROPICAL CYCLONES...THIS\r\nCORRESPONDS TO AT LEAST 65 KT FOR THE SURFACE WIND.  THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB BY\r\nDROPSONDE AND THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS NEAR 15 KT...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE MIGHT BE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THAT VALUE.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...OPHELIA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE HURRICANE HAS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN MODEST...IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT SHIPS DIAGNOSES A\r\nRATHER STABLE LAPSE RATE IN THE ENVIRONMENT.  SINCE THE OUTFLOW\r\nLOOKS IMPRESSIVE...AND ASSUMING THAT SLOW-MOVING OPHELIA IS NOT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY COOLER UPWELLED WATERS...ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IN THIS\r\nADVISORY IS BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA CONTINUES TRAPPED BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nAREAS...AND REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A BUILDING\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE UNITED STATES MID-ATLANTIC COAST.  THE\r\nGFDL MODEL IS NO LONGER AN OUTLIER IN SHOWING OPHELIA TURNING\r\nWESTWARD BY 4-5 DAYS...HOWEVER IT IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE ONE\r\nDOING SO.  THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS A CLOCKWISE LOOP\r\nBUT DOES NOT TAKE OPHELIA NEARLY SO FAR WEST AS THE GFDL.  SINCE\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nRUNS...I FEEL IT IS BEST TO TAKE A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND ONLY\r\nSHOW A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOVEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD.  WE NEED TO SEE\r\nWHETHER SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS ARE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING THE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK AT THE LONGER RANGE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH\r\nALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST DUE TO AN EXPENSION OF THE WIND FIELD\r\nAND A STRENGTHENING OF THE CIRCULATION...AND NOT BECAUSE OF ANY\r\nEXPECTED SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 28.6N  79.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 29.0N  79.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N  78.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 30.0N  78.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 30.7N  77.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 31.0N  76.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 30.0N  76.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 30.0N  77.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF OPHELIA HAD RISEN TO 990 MB...WITH\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 74 KT.  A DROPSONDE IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nEYEWALL INDICATED 65-70 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND A SHIP JUST\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 60 KT WINDS.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.  DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D\r\nSHOWS THAT SINCE 21Z THE CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS LOST SOME\r\nORGANIZATION...BECOMING BROADER AND WITH THE DOPPLER VELOCITIES\r\nDECREASING.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS IN THE CENTER AS OF THIS WRITING AND\r\nHAS JUST REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 991 MB.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CENTER IS\r\nJUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS POSITIONS.  IT IS TOO EARLY\r\nTO TELL IF THIS IS THE START OF THE EXPECTED NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT. \r\nOPHELIA IS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL RIDGES...WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE\r\nWEAKENING AS A TROUGH MOVES TROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT OPHELIA WILL MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE TROUGH GOES BY AND THE RIDGE\r\nRE-BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S..  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES IN SPEED.  AFTER 72 HR...THE BUILDING RIDGE COULD CAUSE\r\nA LOOPING MOTION OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH 120 HR...OR\r\nEVEN MOVE THE STORM BACK TO THE COAST BEFORE 120 HR AS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDN.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EQUALLY SLOW\r\nLOOP BACK TO THE WEST...AND NOT FOLLOW THE FASTER EXTREMES OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE EITHER EAST OR WEST.  THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  ON THE SIDE FAVORING\r\nSTRENGTHENING...OPHELIA HAS A GOOD LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...IS OVER\r\nTHE WARM GULF STREAM...AND IS GENERATING CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR -80C. \r\nON THE SIDE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES DRY AIR SURROUNDING OPHELIA...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G4\r\nJET SHOWS 20-30 KT OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AT 250 MB BLOWING RIGHT\r\nTHROUGH THE HURRICANE.  ADDITIONALLY...THE SLOW MOTION INTRODUCES\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA WILL UPWELL COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT\r\nIF IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF STREAM.  SHIPS AND THE GFDL BOTH CALL\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH SHIPS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR NEAR THE STORM AFTER 48 HR.  INDEED...MOST\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU.S. COAST AT 72 HR...WHICH IS AN ANOTHER COMPLICATION.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND A SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITY THAN FORECAST BY\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 28.7N  79.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 29.0N  79.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 29.6N  78.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 30.2N  77.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 30.6N  77.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 31.0N  76.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N  76.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 30.0N  77.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-09 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nA NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING OPHELIA SINCE\r\n02Z...AND NO STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS HIGHER\r\nTHAN 50 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.  THERE WAS ONE DROPSONDE NEAR 05Z\r\nWITH A SURFACE WIND OF 58 KT.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND A\r\nSIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE THE RADAR SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.     \r\n\r\nOPHELIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 020/5.  OPHELIA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVELS RIDGES TO ITS EAST\r\nAND WEST...WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS TROUGH WILL HELP LIFT OPHELIA SLOWLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nTHIS TROUGH WILL LEAVE OPHELIA BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET HAVE\r\nBEEN INGESTED INTO THE 00Z MODELS...AND WHETHER BY COINCIDENCE OR\r\nCONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE\r\nWEST...TAKING OPHELIA WESTWARD UNDERNEATH THE BUILDING HIGH\r\nPRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN 4-5 DAYS.  GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nCONSISTENCY IN MODEL GUIDANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS STORM...I HAVE\r\nONLY MADE A MODEST WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAT THIS TIME.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT WHICH AREAS\r\nMIGHT ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY OPHELIA...BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THIS\r\nCYCLONE TO THE COAST AND THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS DICTATES THAT\r\nINTERESTS FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS WILL NEED TO MONITOR\r\nOPHELIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA MAY HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY LONG ENOUGH TO BRING UP COOLER\r\nWATERS EVEN OVER THE GULF STREAM.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW\r\nMOVING AND ITS UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG.  OPHELIA\r\nSHOULD THEREFORE HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT QUITE A BIT BELOW\r\nTHE GFDL...WHICH MAKES OPHELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 29.3N  79.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 29.9N  78.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 30.5N  77.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 31.0N  77.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  76.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 30.7N  76.8W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 30.5N  77.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  78.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS A PECULIAR CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS A HURRICANE AND THE LATEST\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983\r\nMB. NORMALLY...THIS VALUE WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM\r\nSURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE ARE 65\r\nKNOTS AND 49 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DROP\r\nIN PRESSURE...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030\r\nDEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE\r\nIS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS\r\nTROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A\r\nDAY OR TWO. THEN...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE\r\nOPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST.\r\nONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC\r\nTHE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED\r\nSTATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING BACK\r\nAND FORTH...HAS BROUGHT OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST FOR THE PAST\r\nTWO RUNS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A\r\nHURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST EAST...\r\nTHE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 29.5N  78.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 30.0N  78.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 30.6N  78.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 31.0N  77.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  77.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  78.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 31.5N  80.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND OBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT OPHELIA HAS A CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A HURRICANE. A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY\r\nMEASURED 983 MB...72-KNOT WINDS AT 700 MB...A FEW 62-KNOT WINDS\r\nMEASURED BY THE SFMR AND A 10-N MI DIAMETER CIRCULAR EYE. FOR\r\nACADEMICS...PERHAPS IT IS NECESSARY TO HAVE ONE OR TWO MORE KNOTS\r\nTO MAKE A OPHELIA A HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR THE\r\nOFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY...SO OPHELIA IS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE NOW.\r\nTHE SHEAR MAY INCREASE A LITTLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER\r\nOPHELIA...ONCE THE HURRICANE BEGINS ITS WESTWARD TURN.  A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGHTENING IS INDICATED...BUT OPHELIA IS KEPT AS A CATEGORY ONE\r\nHURRICANE. HOWEVER...TO ERR BY ONE OR TWO CATEGORIES IS NOT\r\nIMPOSSIBLE...DUE TO OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING RAPID\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS\r\nAS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO STOP AND THEN TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  HOW FAR WEST THE HURRICANE WILL GO\r\nDEPENDS ON THE ABILITY OF EACH MODEL IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY\r\nOF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA. WE ARE PUTTING ALL THE BETS IN\r\nTHE FORMATION OF THE HIGH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT\r\nGOING AS FAR WEST AND SOUTH AS THE GFDL AND NOT AS FAR NORTH AND\r\nEAST AS THE GFS. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nCONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 30.0N  78.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 30.6N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 31.3N  77.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 31.5N  77.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 31.6N  78.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 32.0N  79.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 33.0N  80.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 35.0N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING\r\nTHE EVENING...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN BOTH THE COVERAGE AND\r\nINTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 985 MB...\r\nAND THE THAT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 65\r\nKT 25-30 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS THAT A\r\nCOMBINATION OF 20 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION HAS\r\nAT LEAST TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED MAINLY ON THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 055/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE\r\nTHE THE SHORT TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE IN EXCESS OF 10 KT.  THE\r\nREASON FOR THE ACCELERATION IS NOT CLEAR...BUT MAY BE RELATED TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nLIFTS OUT AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS TRACK IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS EXCEPT THE GFS...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR OPHELIA TO TURN BACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIN 72-96 HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST AND NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE FORECAST THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION...AND IF THE MOTION CONTINUES THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY\r\nUNDERGO SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST OPHELIA TO REACH 85 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  THAT BEING\r\nSAID...THE CURRENT SHEAR...ABUNDANT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY...AND BROAD STORM STRUCTURE WILL LIKELY SLOW DEVELOPMENT. \r\nHOW LONG THE SHEAR WILL LAST IS UNCERTAIN...AS THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL\r\nEVOLVE NEAR OPHELIA.  AN EXTRA COMPLICATION IS THAT OPHELIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27-28C...EXCEPT\r\nWHEN IT PASSES OVER THE GULF STREAM.  THE SLOW MOTION OVER\r\nRELATIVELY SHALLOW WARM WATER MAY ALLOW THE STORM TO UPWELL COOLER\r\nWATER AND INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA\r\nCOULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE A\r\nSURPRISE IF IT STRENGTHENED LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 30.4N  77.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 31.0N  76.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 31.2N  76.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 31.5N  77.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 31.7N  77.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 32.5N  79.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  80.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 35.5N  78.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED 72 HOUR INTENSITY...85 KT...IN TABLE...\r\n \r\nRECON REPORTS THROUGH 06Z LOCATED THE CENTER WITHIN A LONE BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING SOMEWHAT WITHIN A LARGER\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASUREMENTS BY\r\nDROPSONDE WERE 983-985 MB... BUT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nWERE 70 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 56 KT AT THE SURFACE.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN TO 3.5.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 60 KT.  WHILE THIS MAKES OPHELIA A TROPICAL STORM RATHER\r\nTHAN A HURRICANE... THE WEAKENING IS ONLY SLIGHT AND\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9... BUT THIS NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IS DECEPTIVE SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ONLY ABOUT\r\n12 MORE HOURS... OR LESS.  AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. PROCEEDS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD STOP OPHELIA FROM MOVING OUT TO SEA AND INSTEAD\r\nPERHAPS FORCE IT WESTWARD AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  HOW\r\nLONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO EVOLVE IS NOT AGREED UPON BY\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION...AND IT ALONG WITH THE GFDL BRING OPHELIA TO THE\r\nCOAST THE FASTEST.  CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STALL THE\r\nSYSTEM OFFSHORE LONGER BUT EVENTUALLY BRING IT TO THE COAST.\r\nALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST...THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT\r\nNORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS STRUGGLING AGAINST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME VERY\r\nDRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...\r\nALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING THE CYCLONE MOSTLY BENEATH\r\nITS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER SINCE CIRRUS IS STILL FANNING OUT TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER.  THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS NORTH OF\r\nOPHELIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nMORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL NOW ONLY PEAKS AT\r\n68 KT...WHILE GFDL FORECASTS NEAR 85 KT...WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 85 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL\r\nGIVEN THE LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD SOUTH OF THE\r\nRIDGE.\r\n \r\nWATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nCOAST LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 31.2N  76.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 31.7N  76.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 31.9N  76.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  77.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 32.3N  78.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 33.0N  79.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 34.5N  79.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST REPORTED 976 MB AND MEASURED 78 KNOTS AT 700\r\nMB. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70\r\nKNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS ONLY MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR \r\n040 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED...WITH\r\nHIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN\r\nABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.\r\nTRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED EITHER SO THERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD. \r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...AND THESE\r\nWINDS MAY BE APPROACHING THE COAST EARLIER THAN THE CENTER OF THE \r\nHURRICANE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 31.6N  76.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 32.0N  76.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 32.2N  76.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 32.3N  77.4W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 32.5N  78.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 33.5N  79.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 35.0N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 37.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED 120 HR TABLE FROM INLAND TO OVER WATER...\r\n \r\nLATEST RECON DATA SHOW THAT OPHELIA IS A 70-KNOT HURRICANE WITH A\r\nCLOSED EYEWALL OF ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER AND A 977 MB MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE. CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED\r\nA LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING UP TO 130 N MI FROM THE CENTER. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINAL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE OCEAN IS A LITTLE BIT COOLER DUE TO THE\r\nUPWELLING. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. IN\r\nFACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL MODELS BRING THE HURRICANE ABOVE\r\n80 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...JUST A LITTLE NORTHEAST OR\r\nNORTHWARD DRIFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THEREAFTER...I MUST EMPHASIZE THAT\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SPREAD IN THE\r\nMODELS HAVE INCREASED A LOT SINCE THE LAST RUN.  BUT IN GENERAL...\r\nLATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWN A GRADUAL SHIFT TO RIGHT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACKS NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE GFDL\r\nWHICH IS BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA BORDER. THIS IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT FROM ITS\r\nPREVIOUS RUN.  DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE AREA OF\r\nHURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED TO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD LATER\r\nTONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR TONIGHT'S MODEL RUN\r\nWHICH WILL INCLUDE THE DATA FROM THE NOAA JET. I WANT TO MAKE SURE\r\nTHAT THEY DO NOT SHIFT BACK TO THE LEFT LIKE THEY DID LAST NIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 31.8N  76.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 32.0N  76.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  76.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 32.2N  76.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 32.5N  77.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 34.0N  78.2W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 35.5N  78.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 37.5N  73.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-09-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF OPHELIA HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977-978 MB AND AN EYEWALL\r\nOPEN IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB\r\nARE 79 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHILE EYEWALL DROPSONDES IN\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS INDICATED 60-65 KT SURFACE\r\nWINDS.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FLIGHT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND\r\nNEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN.  THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE\r\nALTANTIC.  THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT\r\nOUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE\r\nSTORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART\r\nOF THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nAND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHESE HAVE PROBABLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE LARGEST FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO\r\nBE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPWELLING OF COLD WATER UNDERNEATH\r\nTHE SLOW-MOVING STORM.  NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER IS REPORTING AN SST OF 27.2C...AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER IS REPORTING 24.4C...DOWN ALMOST 3C FROM BEFORE OPHELIA\r\nPASSED OVER IT.  ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SSTS ARE BETWEEN 27-28C\r\nEXCEPT IN THE RELATIVELY NARROW GULF STREAM.  SHOULD OPHELIA MOVE\r\nAS SLOWLY AS FORECAST...IT MAY UPWELL ENOUGH COLD WATER TO SUPPRESS\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT.  HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTER\r\n36-48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET FOLLOW THAT\r\nSCENARIO...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST\r\nU. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A\r\nTRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT\r\nSHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THEREFORE...IT IS TOO\r\nEARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY\r\nUNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 31.8N  75.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 31.7N  75.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 31.7N  76.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 32.0N  76.4W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 32.4N  76.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  77.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 35.5N  76.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-09-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 85 KT\r\nABOUT 25 N MI WEST OF THE CENTER AS THEY DEPARTED FROM THEIR LAST\r\nFIX AT AROUND 06Z.  THIS IS THE STRONGEST FLIGHT LEVEL WIND\r\nREPORTED TO DATE IN OPHELIA AND SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY\r\nTO 75 KT.  THE MOST RECENT CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE\r\nWAS 978 MB...BASICALLY UNCHANGED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\n75 KT INTENSITY IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS ARE ONLY 4.0 DUE TO THE\r\nSLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE COMING OUT OF\r\nTHE GOES-12 ECLIPSE PERIOD... SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA IS\r\nAGAIN A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 75 KT.  WHILE OPHELIA MIGHT BE WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nRIDGE REACHES THE EAST COAST AND THE LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE IN\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS... THE SLOW MOTION OF OPHELIA COULD CAUSE OCEAN\r\nUPWELLING AND PROVIDE A COUNTERACTING LIMITATION ON THE INTENSITY. \r\nGIVEN THIS REASONING AND THAT NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS SIGNIFICANT CHANGES... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS 75\r\nKT THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND COOLER WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA REMAINS STATIONARY AND SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG AND DEEP\r\nHIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ATLANTIC AND\r\nOVER THE EAST HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. LACKING A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nCHANGE IN THIS PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED. THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS TO BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVE THE U.S. RIDGE\r\nOFFSHORE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT TROUGH WHICH SHOULD\r\nTHEN FINALLY GET OPHELIA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. PERHAPS DUE IN PART\r\nTO THE SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION BY THE NOAA G-IV JET LAST\r\nNIGHT... SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE 00Z GFS HAS SHIFTED MORE THAN\r\n100 MILES WESTWARD AND NOW FORECASTS LANDFALL OVER THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THIS SHIFT BRINGS THE\r\nGFS INTO REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS\r\nAND UKMET. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nEAST AT 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THERAFTER... TO CONFORM\r\nWITH THIS GUIDANCE...BUT IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED DURING THE PERIOD\r\nOF SLOW MOTION THROUGH DAY TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST IMPLIES A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF OPHELIA DIRECTLY\r\nIMPACTING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN END OF THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA...\r\nSO A SMALL PORTION OF THE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED...FROM EDISTO\r\nBEACH SOUTHWARD.  HOWEVER... THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nHURRICANE WATCH AREA... SINCE OPHELIA IS NOT YET MOVING... IT IS\r\nSTILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE\r\nCONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 31.7N  75.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 31.6N  76.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 31.6N  76.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 32.0N  76.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 32.6N  76.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 34.0N  76.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 36.5N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 39.5N  71.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-09-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS SHOWED\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 74 KT...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY...TO 70 KT. \r\nTHE SYSTEM APPEARS WELL ORGANIZED AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTWO FACTORS MITIGATING AGAINST INTENSIFICATION ARE THE PRESENCE OF\r\nDRY AIR...AS EVIDENCED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nAND NORTH CAROLINA SHOWING DEW POINTS IN THE LOW SIXTIES...AND\r\nCOOLER WATERS UPWELLED BENEATH THIS SLOW-MOVING HURRICANE.  OPHELIA\r\nIS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS... HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. \r\nGIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR\r\nA SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS FORECAST AS WELL.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA CONTINUES STUCK BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nAREAS...AND UNABLE TO MAKE CONTACT WITH THE WESTERLIES.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THIS STEERING...OR LACK OF STEERING...REGIME IS LIKELY\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BY AROUND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BREAK DOWN THE BLOCKING\r\nHIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE AND ALLOW OPHELIA TO BEGIN\r\nMOVING ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD HEADING.  THE LATEST\r\nGFS RUN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT\r\nDAYS 3-5...BUT THE NEW NOGAPS RUN HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER/NEAR EASTERN\r\nNORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT 3-DAY TRACK\r\nFORECASTS CAN EASILY BE IN ERROR BY 200 NAUTICAL MILES.\r\n\r\nNO ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME\r\nSINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOVEMENT...AND THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS HAS NOT CHANGED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 31.6N  75.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 31.6N  75.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 31.9N  76.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 32.2N  76.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 32.7N  76.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 34.5N  76.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 37.5N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 40.5N  71.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-09-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005\r\n...CORRECTED GFS TO GFDL IN SECOND PARAGRAPH...\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER\r\nON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 61 KT AND PEAK \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 77 KT.  USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 65 KT.  BECAUSE OF THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF UPWELLED COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...NO\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY 48-72 HOURS DUE TO THE ENERGIZING\r\nEFFECT OF THE GULF STREAM AND A MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS. \r\nALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A LARGE INCREASE\r\nIN STRENGTH...INTENSITY PREDICTIONS CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF 1\r\nSAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  COOLER\r\nWATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING  BY DAYS 4-5.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER DRIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO FAR THE MOVEMENT IS STILL QUASI-STATIONARY.\r\nOPHELIA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS.  THE BLOCKING\r\nHIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO BE BROKEN UP IN 2-3 DAYS\r\nBY A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.   THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ON A \r\nNORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES THE\r\nDOMINANT STEERING FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND\r\nSHOWS LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE THE U.K. MET MOVES THE\r\nSYSTEM VERY SLOWLY FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN TAKES IT NORTHEASTWARD\r\nJUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS.  THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE KEEPS OPHELIA WELL\r\nEAST OF THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK DURING THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS BUT THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS AND\r\nNOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nTHE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE WIND\r\nFIELD BASED ON SHIP...BUOY...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...DICTATE THE\r\nISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 31.5N  76.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 31.7N  76.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 31.9N  77.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 32.4N  77.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 32.9N  77.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 34.5N  76.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 37.0N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 41.0N  70.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT OPHELIA\r\nREMAINS AS A 65-KNOT HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING VERY\r\nLITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY AND PROBABLY HAS PRODUCED UPWELLING. NO\r\nWONDER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION RESEMBLES AN EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOL. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE...AND WHEN OPHELIA\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE...IT COULD ENCOUNTER A LITTLE WARMER OCEAN.\r\nTHEREFORE...ONLY A VERY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS WHICH ARE ONLY\r\nSHOWING A VERY MODEST INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED SCENARIO OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER-MEAN\r\nHIGH FORMING NORTH OF OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE...AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE UPPER-AIR DATA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...OPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240\r\nDEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED SINCE THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD\r\nEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...PAINFULLY SLOWLY...TOWARD THE UNITED\r\nSTATES COAST WITHIN THE WATCH OR WARNING AREA. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED...BY THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWED ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LAST RUN\r\nDURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST AND THEY ARE IN MUCH\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY.  IN FACT...THE CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nWHICH SKIRTED THE COAST IN THE LAST RUN ARE NOW OVER EASTERN NORTH\r\nCAROLINA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nBUT I DO NOT WANT TO SHIFT WESTWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST YET...IN\r\nCASE THE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN. THE GFDL\r\nSTUBBORNLY INSISTS ON A TRACK MORE TO THE LEFT. BY INSPECTING THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE HIGH NORTH OF OPHELIA...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD A LITTLE BIT\r\nMORE FOR THE PORTION BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 31.1N  76.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 31.2N  77.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 31.8N  77.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 32.2N  77.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 32.9N  77.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 35.0N  76.6W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 42.0N  68.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON FIX AT 06Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985 MB... A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE... AND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WERE 78 KT IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  HOWEVER... IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THESE WINDS ARE MIXING\r\nDOWN TO THE SURFACE AS MUCH AS THE AVERAGE REDUCTION WOULD DICTATE.\r\nSINCE THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN RISING AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE NOT\r\nANY MORE IMPRESSIVE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST AND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER FORECASTS THE\r\nWEAKENING THAT IT HAD PREVIOUSLY AND IS NOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE\r\nMINIMAL CHANGES IN INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS... UNTIL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS FARTHER NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nCONSECUTIVE RECON FIXES THROUGH 06Z INDICATED AN ESTIMATED INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 270/4.  OPHELIA HAS COMPLETED A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP AND\r\nIS BACK WHERE IT WAS ABOUT 48 HOURS AGO.  WHILE THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED... SOME OF THE MODELS ARE\r\nPROVIDING NEW AND DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS.  NONE OF THE RELIABLE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IMMUNE FROM SIGNIFICANT TRACK FORECAST\r\nSHIFTS DURING THE PAST DAY OR TWO IN THIS VERY DIFFICULT SCENARIO. \r\nTHE LATEST RUNS INCLUDE THE GFDL SHIFTING BACK TO THE EAST CLOSER\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND\r\nESPECIALLY THE NOGAPS NOW SUGGEST THAT OPHELIA WILL NOT GET PICKED\r\nUP BY THE NEXT MIDLATITUDE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE U.S. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  AS A RESULT THESE MODELS\r\nFORECAST OPHELIA TO STILL BE NOT FAR OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS\r\n4-5 DAYS FROM NOW.  EVEN THOUGH NOGAPS IS A CREDIBLE MODEL... SINCE\r\nTHE NOGAPS SOLUTION IS A NEW ONE I AM NOT READY TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ACCOUNTING FOR THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT NOGAPS AND UKMET COULD BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY\r\nCORRECT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT IS ALONG THE SAME PATH... ANTICIPATING A SLOW AND\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 31.3N  76.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 31.4N  77.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 31.9N  77.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 32.5N  77.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 33.3N  77.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.5N  76.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 38.5N  72.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 42.0N  68.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INDICATED A PEAK 700\r\nMB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 63 KT.  MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE NEAR 60 KT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS GIVEN THE\r\nLACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO TRANSPORT MOMENTUM VERTICALLY.  THUS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\nOPHELIA HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO\r\nUPWELLING AND STIRRING HAS LIKELY COOLED THE WATERS.  SHIP AND\r\nDRIFTING BUOY DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO BELOW 26 DEG C BENEATH THE STORM CENTER.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST TAKES OPHELIA OVER A SECTION OF THE GULF STREAM...\r\nWHERE A MODESTLY DEEP WARM WATER MIXED LAYER...I.E. HIGHER OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT...COULD INDUCE RE-STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM RE-ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nBEFORE NEARING THE COAST.\r\n\r\nAFTER COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...THE STORM IS MOVING VERY\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/02.  BECAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nSO ILL-DEFINED...THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A DIFFICULT ONE.  SOME\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN...INDICATE THAT THE\r\nBROAD 500 MB TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WILL LACK SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO PICK UP OPHELIA\r\nAND ACCELERATE IT NORTHEASTWARD.  THEREFORE WE HAVE THE UNPLEASANT \r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD LINGER NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.\r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS.  THE GFS AND GFDL STILL MOVE OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE ATLANTIC BEYOND 3 DAYS...BUT THEY ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN\r\nTHEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  IN DEFERENCE TO THIS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 3-5\r\nDAY TIME FRAME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 31.6N  76.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 31.8N  77.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 32.3N  77.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 33.0N  77.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 33.9N  77.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 35.5N  76.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 38.0N  73.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 41.0N  68.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n\r\nTHE INNER CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOSTLY\r\nOBLITERATED...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING IN BANDS 50-60 N\r\nMI OR MORE AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SINCE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY\r\nEXTENSIVE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY EFFECTIVE AT\r\nMIXING STRONG WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL AND DROPWINDSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN\r\nNEAR 60 KT.  OPHELIA IS CROSSING THE GULF STREAM SO THERE IS STILL\r\nSOME POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...UNLESS AND UNTIL THE\r\nINNER CORE BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nUNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nOPHELIA WILL RE-ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nA SLOW AND MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 310/3...HAS BEEN\r\nOBSERVED SINCE LATE MORNING.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL NOT WELL\r\nDEFINED AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  SOME GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY RECURVE OPHELIA AND TAKE IT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER 3 DAYS...WILL NOT EXTEND FAR\r\nENOUGH SOUTH TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nFOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST NOGAPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT OPHELIA WILL \r\nMEANDER OVER/NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN SHOWING THE TROUGH\r\nCARRYING OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD...AND TAKES THE SYSTEM WELL INTO THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC BY 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF\r\nDIVERSE GUIDANCE BUT DOES INDICATE RECURVATURE...AND A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSTORM SURGE PREDICTIONS SHOWN IN THE PUBLIC ADVISORY ARE BASED ON A\r\nCATEGORY 1 LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 31.8N  77.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 32.3N  77.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 32.8N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 33.3N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 34.2N  77.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 35.5N  76.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 41.0N  67.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF OPHELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE A LITTLE COOLER THAN THEY\r\nWERE EARLIER.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER WITH THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER\r\nAROUND 2238Z...AND AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 700 MB WINDS OF\r\n72 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS JUST\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF OPHELIA...WITH A\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND OF 45-60 NMI...AS WELL AS MARGINAL WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES...ARGUES AGAINST ANY RAPID OR LARGE INTENSITY\r\nINCREASES...IT WOULD TAKE VERY LITTLE FOR OPHELIA TO REGAIN\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.  WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATING\r\nSUCH...A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME IS THE PRUDENT COURSE OF\r\nACTION.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS SLOW AND ERRATIC...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATED AT 290/3.  RAOB DATA AT 0Z SUGGEST THAT HIGH PRESSURE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA IS WEAKENING WITH THE APPROACH A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE HIGH WILL SHORTLY DIMINISH AND OPHELIA WILL BEGIN\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH WITH VERY LITTLE ACCELERATION.  THIS COULD RESULT\r\nIN A VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNING AREA.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...WINDS AT OR NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH COULD BE A PROLONGED EXPERIENCE IN MANY\r\nLOCATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 31.8N  77.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 32.4N  78.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 32.9N  78.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 33.7N  77.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 34.6N  77.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 36.0N  75.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 42.0N  66.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE COOLED...\r\nESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION IS\r\nSTARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE LAST\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER IN THE STORM REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 990 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 60-65\r\nKT AND SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KT FROM DROPSONDES.  THIS WOULD NOT\r\nNORMALLY SUPPORT 60 KT SURFACE WINDS...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN 60 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE\r\nAIRCRAFT LEFT.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE 00Z...WITH THE CENTER MEANDERING\r\nAROUND INSIDE THE BROAD CIRCULATION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF OPHELIA IS NOW ALONG 81W...\r\nMOVING STEADILY EASTWARD.  ONCE THE RIDGE MOVES EAST OF 78W...WHICH\r\nSHOULD TAKE 12-18 HR...OPEHLIA SHOULD BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD TURN OPHELIA NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING\r\nOPHELIA TO BE NEAR CAPE FEAR IN 30-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY PASSAGE\r\nACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48\r\nHR...ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.  IT IS\r\nALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAST AS\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME WESTERLY\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12-18 HR BEFORE\r\nTHE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE THE CORE\r\nOF OPHELIA IS OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF\r\nNEAR 28C...MUCH OF THE WATER ON EITHER SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM IS\r\n27C OR COLDER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE STORM...AND SURFACE DATA\r\nSHOWS COOLER AND DRIER AIR TRYING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE.  COMBINE THESE FACTORS WITH THE LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nAND IT SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN VERY QUICKLY\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE.  NONE OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MORE THAN 67 KT WINDS...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN OPHELIA BACK TO 65 KT. \r\nTHAT BEING SAID...IF THE STORM CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS\r\nSTRONG AS CURRENTLY OCCURRING THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD GET A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER.  AFTER CROSSING NORTH CAROLINA...OPHELIA SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BECOME EXTRATROPCIAL BY\r\n120 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 32.0N  78.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 32.4N  78.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 33.1N  78.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 34.0N  77.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 34.9N  76.9W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 36.5N  74.0W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  69.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM SATELLITES...DOPPLER RADARS...AND AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE\r\nHIGHEST RECON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT. DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM WILMINGTON HAS BEEN RUNNING\r\n67-70 KT BETWEEN 10000 TO 12000 FEET IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...\r\nJUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE RECON MAX WIND REPORT. THESE VALUES\r\nWOULD SUPPORT 59-63 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nA BLEND OF THESE VALUES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/03 OVER THE PAST 9-12 HOURS. A\r\nSMALL INNER-CORE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION HAS BEEN ROTATING\r\nCYCLONICALLY AROUND THE INSIDE OF THE LARGER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SPITS AND SPURTS OF FORWARD MOTION...\r\nINCLUDING SMALL LOOPS. HOWEVER...THE LARGER CIRCULATION AND\r\nPRESSURE FIELD APPEAR TO BE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES A\r\nSMALL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS MOVED FROM WEST\r\nVIRGINIA TO NEW JERSEY DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME\r\nTHE HEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED BY AT LEAST 30-40 METERS. AS THIS\r\nFEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND ALLOW\r\nOPHELIA TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nCYCLONE TURNING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND CROSSING THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER\r\nTHAT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS DUE TO MORE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACTING TO DRIVE THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE TO THE EAST AT HIGHER LATITUDES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE OF OPHELIA IS MOVING OVER THE WARMER GULFSTREAM WHERE\r\nSSTS ARE 82F-83F. THE WARMER WATER HAS LIKELY HELPED TO GENERATE\r\nSOME MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE WIND CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nSTILL A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE INNER REGION THAT HAS TO BE MIXED OUT\r\nBEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING CAN OCCUR. ONCE OPHELIA NEARS\r\nTHE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE SSTS DROP BY ABOUT 3F-5F...THERE\r\nMAY BE SOME EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...GIVEN\r\nTHE LARGE SIZE OF THE RADIUS IF MAXIMUM WINDS...ONLY SLOW INTENSITY\r\nCHANGES UP OR DOWN SHOULD OCCUR BEFORE...DURING...AND AFTER\r\nLANDFALL. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nAND OPHELIA COULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCUR. ONCE OPHELIA\r\nCLEARS THE OUTER BANKS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE\r\nSLOW WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 32.3N  78.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 32.9N  78.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 33.9N  77.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 34.9N  76.9W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 35.4N  75.7W    65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 36.7N  72.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 41.0N  65.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 47.0N  53.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS...AND AN AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nSLOWLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. THE HIGHEST RECON 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL HAS BEEN 76 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND DOPPLER\r\nVELOCITY DATA FROM WILMINGTON HAS BEEN AS HIGH AS 80 KT AT 9900\r\nFEET IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE VALUES WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT\r\n68-72 KT SURFACE WINDS AND MAKE OPHELIA A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...\r\nTHESE HIGHER-LEVEL WIND VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED VERY CLOSE TO\r\nNOAA BUOY 41004...WHICH HAS ONLY BEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF\r\n43 KT. SINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT DECREASED DURING THE DAY\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE MAY SOME LOCALIZED SMALL PATCHES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS\r\nBENEATH THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345 DEGREES AT 3-4 KT OVER THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS. THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD AND CONVECTION HAS TIGHTENED UP\r\nSOMEWHAT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THERE HAS BEEN LESS WOBBLE ALONG\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nMOVE GRADUALLY EASTWARD...WHILE 18Z SPECIAL UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE\r\nCAROLINAS INDICATES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS NOT\r\nERODED AS QUICKLY AS THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS AS WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDRIVE OPHELIA MORE TO THE EAST AT HIGHER LATITUDES BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND RELATIVELY COOL SSTS SHOULD\r\nPREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...SO SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND OPHELIA\r\nCOULD PEAK AT 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AFTER OPHELIA CLEARS\r\nTHE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD\r\nCAUSE SLOW WEAKENING UNTIL OPHELIA TRANSITIONS INTO A FORMIDABLE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 32.6N  78.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 33.3N  77.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 34.3N  77.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 35.2N  76.1W    65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 35.7N  74.7W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 37.8N  70.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 42.5N  62.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 48.5N  49.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-09-13 21:30:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n530 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS MAINLY TO UPGRADE OPHELIA TO A HURRICANE\r\nBASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT FOUND STEPPED-\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WINDS OF 63-66 KT NORTH-NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...BENEATH 4000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 83 KT. THE AIR\r\nFORCE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT AT 700 MB IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS ALREADY A 65-KT HURRICANE...IT IS QUITE\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REACH 70 KT BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2130Z 32.6N  78.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 33.3N  77.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 34.3N  77.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 35.2N  76.1W    65 KT...INLAND/PAMLICO SOUND\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 35.7N  74.7W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 37.8N  70.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 42.5N  62.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 48.5N  49.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO INCREASE IN OPHELIA'S WINDS SINCE LATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON. THE PEAK 700 MB WIND OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nWAS 76 KT.  THE NOAA P3 MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 63 KT WITH THE\r\nSFMR AT 2243Z...AND THE NWS/WILMINGTON DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING 85\r\nKT AT 7000 FT. ALL THIS SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA IS MAINTAINING AN\r\nINTENSITY NEAR 65 KT. HOWEVER...ON THE MOST RECENT PASS THROUGH THE\r\nSTORM THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 982 MB...AND THE EYEWALL\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG.  IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT\r\nOPHELIA WILL STRENGTHEN A BIT PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL\r\nSSTS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE AGAINST ANY RAPID CHANGES.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO MOTION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  00Z\r\nRAOBS AND OFFSHORE DATA FROM THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET SHOW THAT THE\r\n500 MB HIGH THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED EASTWARD\r\nAND IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.  THIS...COUPLED WITH THE\r\nAPPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES...\r\nSHOULD ALLOW A NORTHERLY MOTION TO RESUME SOON.  THIS TROUGH WILL\r\nNOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE...\r\nHOWEVER...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN AN EXCRUCIATINGLY LONG\r\nPASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SLOW MOTION...COUPLED WITH THE RATHER\r\nLARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EXTENDED\r\nPERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH WINDS AT OR NEAR HURRICANE\r\nFORCE...OVER MUCH OF THE WARNING AREA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nLIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAJOR MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 32.6N  78.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 33.4N  77.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 34.4N  76.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 35.1N  75.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 35.7N  74.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 38.0N  70.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 42.5N  61.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 47.0N  51.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 980\r\nMB AND BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW BETTER ORGANIZATION. WINDS\r\nCOULD INCREASE A LITTLE MORE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS NOT LIKELY.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HESITATED A FEW HOURS AGO BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS...OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nBECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK...OPHELIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO AFFECT PRIMARILY A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH\r\nCAROLINA FOR A DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE\r\nONCE BACK OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN AN\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW. IT SHOULD BE AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE...MAINLY DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD WHEN\r\nALL MODELS SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION.\r\n\r\nNOAA BUOY 41013 JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OPHELIA REPORTED GUSTS\r\nTO 60 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 985.7 MB AT 08Z. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 33.2N  77.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 33.8N  77.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 34.7N  76.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 35.3N  75.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  59.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 48.0N  48.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND NOAA LAND-BASED\r\nDOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 80 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 86-91\r\nTHAT EXTENDED FROM 2500-8000 FT. THE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nIMPROVE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...DESPITE THE VERY LARGE 50\r\nNMI DIAMETER EYE. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/06. RECENT 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER\r\nVAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST\r\nOF OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED...WHEREAS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ACT\r\nTO KEEP OPHELIA MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 24 HOURS...AND CLEARING THE OUTER BANKS BY\r\n36 HOURS. THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nWITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS STALL OPHELIA\r\nNEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVE THE HURRICANE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE COD AREA. IN\r\nCONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP OPHELIA\r\nWELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE\r\nSYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AND VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO\r\nTHE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL\r\nENOUGH RELATIVELY WARM WATER BENEATH THE HURRICANE...SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...\r\nESPECIALLY IF THE EYE REMAINS MORE OVER THE WATER THAN OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 33.7N  77.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 34.5N  76.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 35.1N  75.9W    75 KT...NEAR OUTER BANKS\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 35.8N  74.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 36.8N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 39.6N  68.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 45.0N  58.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 49.0N  45.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":35,"Date":"2005-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nNOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... ALONG WITH NOAA LAND-BASED\r\nDOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY...INDICATE\r\nOPHELIA'S INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 75 KT SINCE THE\r\nINTENSITY UPDATE MENTIONED IN THE TCU PRODUCT THAT WAS ISSUED\r\nEARLIER TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS NOTED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE UNUSUALLY LARGE 50 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME\r\nMORE DISTINCT WITH A SHARPER EDGE NOTED IN THE INNER EYEWALL. A\r\nSERIES OF SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND\r\nTHE INSIDE OF THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE LOCAL\r\nENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS NOTED IN A FEW 77-79 KT WIND\r\nSPIKES IN THE SFMR DATA...BUT THESE HIGHER VALUES WERE NOT FELT TO\r\nBE INDICATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE EYEWALL WIND FIELD. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND A\r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/06. RECON AND RADAR POSITION FIXES HAVE\r\nBEEN COMING IN ON TRACK...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY\r\nEASTWARD OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...WHILE A\r\nSTRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY\r\nAREAS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. ANOTHER\r\nDEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE ROCKY\r\nMOUNTAINS IS ALSO MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS\r\nLARGE-SCALE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT\r\nOPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nACCELERATE THE HURRICANE AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...MINUS THE NORTHWARD-BIASED UKMET MODEL WHICH TAKES\r\nOPHELIA ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING CATEGORY 2 STATUS\r\n...BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION INDUCE\r\nSOME SLOW WEAKENING IN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT...MUCH\r\nCOLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 20C LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF 41N\r\nLATITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY ASSIST IN OPHELIA TRANSITIONING INTO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 34.1N  77.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 34.8N  76.4W    80 KT...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 35.3N  75.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  74.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 37.5N  72.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 41.3N  65.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 46.0N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 49.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":36,"Date":"2005-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT...BASED ON 84 KT WINDS AT 700\r\nMB IN THE SOUTH EYEWALL...AND A 10-MIN MEAN WIND FROM CAPE LOOKOUT\r\nOF 64 KT. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP A LITTLE AND THE\r\nEYEWALL HAS ERODED A BIT...SO OPHELIA MAY HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK\r\nINTENSITY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SURGE OF\r\nNORTHWESTERLIES IN THE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERE IS RAPIDLY\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS MAY\r\nBE TEMPORARILY ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL...I HAVE\r\nTO THINK THAT THIS FLOW WILL BE A DISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE ON THE\r\nCIRCULATION IN ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS SOME\r\nWEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM AS WELL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT UNDER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT\r\nTO THE LEFT...WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...GFS...AND UKMET TAKING\r\nOPHELIA CLOSE ENOUGH TO THREATEN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA WITH\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE TROUGH\r\nCOMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES BEING DEEPER OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND A MORE PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF BERMUDA. \r\nGIVEN THE CONSISTENT SHIFT IN ALL THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE ADJUSTED\r\nTHE TRACK TO THE LEFT...BUT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION\r\nDOWN THE ROAD MAY BE REQUIRED.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 34.3N  76.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 34.7N  75.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 35.3N  74.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 36.3N  73.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 38.0N  71.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 42.5N  65.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 46.5N  56.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":37,"Date":"2005-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS STILL 75 KNOTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 982\r\nMB AND THE EYEWALL IS WELL-DEFINED EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION. \r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. THE \r\nSHEAR AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING SO...OPHELIA WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\nOPHELIA SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT\r\nBECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 055 DEGREES AT 5\r\nKNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE STILL WEAK SO NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST IN COMBINATION WITH AND A RIDGE LOCATED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST...WOULD PROBABLY FORCE OPHELIA TEMPORARILY ON A MORE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTS THE LEFTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK.  THIS NEW TRACK BRINGS\r\nOPHELIA A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO CAPE COD AND THEN NOVA SCOTIA BUT BY\r\nTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE IN TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 34.7N  76.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 35.0N  75.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 35.7N  74.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 37.0N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  71.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  64.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 47.2N  56.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 50.5N  40.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":38,"Date":"2005-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS BECOME RAGGED LOOKING IN RADAR IMAGERY... AND WIND DATA\r\nFROM BOTH COASTAL DOPPLER RADARS AND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 70\r\nKT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO\r\nINCREASED 4 MB...NOW 986 MB...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/03. OPHELIA HAS SLOWED DOWN AND\r\nHAS PERHAPS EVEN STALLED AS THE CYCLONE IS...ONCE AGAIN... CAUGHT\r\nBETWEEN TWO RIDGES. THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE TO THE EAST THAT EXTENDS\r\nNORTHWARD FROM BERMUDA TO NOVA SCOTIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nEASTWARD... WHILE THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE WEST FROM\r\nGEORGIA NORTHWARD TO OHIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN\r\nAND GIVE WAY TO INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE FLOW\r\nPATTERN IS CURRENTLY MORE ZONAL THAN MERIDIONAL AND THIS\r\nPROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP OPHELIA MOVING PARALLEL TO THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST. THE 06Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A LITTLE MORE OF A\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT AFTER 48 HOURS...AND SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE NOGAPS\r\nAND UKMET BRING OPHELIA OVER OR VERY CLOSE THE NEW ENGLAND AREA.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GFDL...GFS...AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP OPHELIA WELL TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SEEMS MORE\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN THE 12Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ONLY SLOWER DURING THE FIRST\r\n48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR THE EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...NOT MUCH ELSE\r\nIS FAVORABLE FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT\r\nOF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS INTRUDED FROM THE WEST...WHICH HAS HELPED\r\nTO ERODE THE CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF OPHELIA. COOL SHELF\r\nWATER JUST OFFSHORE THE OUTER BANKS IS ALSO HELPING TO STABILIZE\r\nTHE ATMOSPHERE ON THE WEST SIDE AND WEAKEN THE CONVECTION. HOWEVER\r\n...OPHELIA IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE GULFSTREAM TO TAP INTO THE\r\nWARMER 82-83F WATER THAT EXISTS THERE...SO ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL 48 HOURS WHEN INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE TRANSITION INTO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 34.8N  75.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 35.0N  75.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 35.7N  74.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 37.1N  73.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 39.2N  70.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 44.2N  63.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 47.0N  56.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 51.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":39,"Date":"2005-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING IN RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND 79 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\nTHESE WIND VALUES ROUGHLY EQUAL 67 AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO INCREASED TO 987 MB. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 65 KT...JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP\r\nOPHELIA AS A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 060/03. DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS...OPHELIA HAS BRIEFLY STALLED...MADE A SMALL CLOCKWISE\r\nLOOP...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING EASTWARD. HOWEVER...WITH\r\nRIDGING PERSISTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OPHELIA...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD MOVE MORE NORTHWARD THAN EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND\r\nGRADUALLY LIFT OUT OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFDL...UKMET\r\n...NOGAPS... AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nSHIFT OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL\r\nDID NOT CHANGE AT ALL AND KEEPS OPHELIA WELL OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. A CLOSER LOOK AT ALL OF THE MODEL FIELDS\r\nINDICATES THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ALSO REMAIN OFFSHORE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFS SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. GIVEN THAT\r\nOPHELIA IS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SHOULD...THEREFORE... REMAIN\r\nMORE VERTICALLY STACKED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. THE BIG QUESTIONS ARE HOW FAST WILL\r\nOPHELIA WEAKEN AND WHEN WILL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCUR.\r\nOPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE WARMER GULFSTREAM\r\nTO AT LEAST KEEP SOME DEEP CONVECTION GOING IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONCE OPHELIA REACHES\r\nABOUT 40N LATITUDE WHERE THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES DECREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...THEN TRANSITION OVER TO A FORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY\r\nON EXACTLY WHEN THIS PHASE CHANGE WILL OCCUR...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 34.8N  75.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 35.1N  75.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 36.4N  74.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 38.7N  71.6W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 41.7N  67.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 46.5N  58.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 49.5N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 53.0N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":40,"Date":"2005-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR AND SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS OF OPHELIA CONTINUE TO\r\nDETERIORATE...WITH MINIMAL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nOF THE SYSTEM.  HIGHEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 74 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL NOT BE MOVING\r\nOVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL ABOUT 36 HOURS...ONLY SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER OPHELIA\r\nPASSES 40N LATITUDE...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE\r\nRAPIDLY...AND OPHELIA SHOULD START ITS TRANSITION INTO A VIGOROUS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC\r\nZONE NEAR NEW ENGLAND.  THIS IS MORE OR LESS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nDIAGNOSIS OF THE GFS OUTPUT ON THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS WEB\r\nPAGE...WHICH SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\nIT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO BE VERY PRECISE AS TO HOW TROPICAL THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE WHEN IT PASSES CLOSEST TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO...BUT MOSTLY\r\nEASTWARD...OR EVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.  CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nAN UNCERTAIN 100/4.  A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nINTO ILLINOIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND CAUSE\r\nOPHELIA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO.  THERE ARE\r\nDIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE OPHELIA\r\nWILL COME TO SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  THE NOGAPS TAKES THE\r\nCENTER NEAR CAPE COD...THE GFDL JUST A BIT FARTHER EAST...AND THE\r\nGFS CONTROL AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FARTHER OFFSHORE.  OUT OF\r\nRESPECT FOR THE GFDL...THE NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nSOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nWESTWARD IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 34.5N  74.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 35.5N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 37.2N  73.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 40.0N  70.4W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 43.0N  67.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 48.0N  55.0W    50 KT...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 51.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 54.0N  24.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":41,"Date":"2005-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND RECONAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA\r\nCONTINUES TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nVISIBLE ON RADAR LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nDETERMINED BY AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDES.  FIRST SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nAFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE EASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON\r\n850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT...AND DROPSONDES REPORTING\r\nSURFACE WINDS IN THE 50-55 KT RANGE.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA IS SOUTH OF A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH\r\nALONG WITH MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER BERMUDA...HAS BEEN IMPEDING\r\nTHE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE\r\nNEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS. AS THIS TROUGH\r\nPROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP\r\nTHE BERMUDA HIGH IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO FORCE OPHELIA ON A PATH\r\nCLOSE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANDIAN MARITIMES. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK BUT WITH SOME\r\nDIFFERENCES IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nTILT OF THE VORTEX INDICATES THAT SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE\r\nSTORM STRUCTURE...AND SHOULD OPHELIA SHEAR OFF IT WOULD PROBABLY\r\nNOT ACCELERATE AS RAPIDLY AS FORECAST.  ASSUMING THE TRACK IS\r\nROUGHLY CORRECT...OPHELIA WILL BE OVER 20C WATER IN 36 HOURS AND\r\nWOULD LIKELY BE EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE PRESSURE HAS RISEN MARKEDLY THIS EVENING BUT THERE HAS BEEN ONLY\r\nA MODEST DECREASE IN THE WINDS.  ALL THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. \r\nAGAIN...SHOULD OPHELIA BECOME SHEARED IT WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN MORE\r\nRAPIDLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 35.1N  74.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 36.1N  74.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 38.0N  72.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 41.0N  69.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 44.0N  64.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 48.5N  51.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 52.0N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 54.0N  21.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":42,"Date":"2005-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS PRESENTING A SHEARED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  RADAR POSITION FIXES FROM COASTAL WSR-88DS ARE EAST OF\r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE POSITIONS...SUGGESTING THE VORTEX IS\r\nTILTED.  THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 996\r\nMB...ALONG WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THIS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7.  OPHELIA IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES...AND AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THIS SHOULD BE\r\nFOLLOWED AFTER 72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...WHICH REQUIRES A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS\r\nOPHELIA REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER.  AFTER 24 HR...COLDER\r\nWATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 36-48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 35.7N  74.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 37.1N  73.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 39.8N  70.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 42.8N  66.7W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 46.0N  60.8W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 50.0N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 53.0N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 53.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":43,"Date":"2005-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS SOMEWHAT RE-ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY...WITH THE\r\nCONVECTION MAKING OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB. \r\nTHE NOAA PLANE MEASURED 73 KT AT 700 MB...AND A 59 KT SURFACE WIND\r\nOFF THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nMAXIMUM WIND OBSERVED THUS FAR BY THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT AT 59 MB\r\nIS 59 KT.  THERE IS ALSO A REPORT OF 74 KT AT 2500 FT FROM THE\r\nFIRST-EVER SUCCESSFUL AEROSONDE FLIGHT INTO THE CORE OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  BASED ON ALL THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS TURNED RIGHT AND ACCELERATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n040/11.  THE STORM IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND AS\r\nA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST BREAKS DOWN THE STORM SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED AFTER\r\n72 HR BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AT HIGH LATITUDE.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK IS AGAIN A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE OLD TRACK...PARTICULARLY AFTER 24 HR.\r\n \r\nWHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHR...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE OPHELIA CROSSES\r\nTHE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM IN 12-18 HR.  AFTER THAT...COLDER\r\nWATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 36.8N  73.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 38.7N  71.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 41.6N  68.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 45.2N  63.6W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  57.3W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 51.5N  43.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 53.5N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 55.0N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":44,"Date":"2005-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nA LAST MINUTE RECON REPORT AT 0220Z SUPPORTS WHAT WAS NOTED IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THAT IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS LAGGING WELL BEHIND THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS BY\r\nALMOST 60 NMI. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SHEARING\r\nAPART...BUT RATHER...THE VORTEX IS JUST TILTED DOWNSTREAM BY THE\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nALSO RISEN TO 998 MB AND THE RECON WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nHAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 50 KT AT 850 MB. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED...SO I AM HOLDING THE INTENSITY\r\nAT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION AND SPEED WAS ORIGINALLY SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...\r\nBUT THE TIMELY FIX BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT CREW\r\nINDICATES OPHELIA IS NOW MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...\r\n040 DEGREES...AT 13 KT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON ACCELERATING OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS...WHICH ALSO KEEPS\r\nTHE CENTER WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. AFTER\r\n24 HOURS...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HOURS AND THEN TURN\r\nEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATER IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OPHELIA\r\nNOW. THE 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE\r\n5 MB RISE IN PRESSURE...BUT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OF\r\nMOTION. THE WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK A LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON A 00Z SHIP REPORT. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN IS DECREASING...INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS FROM AN\r\nAPPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP OPHELIA\r\nA POTENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 37.8N  72.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 40.0N  70.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 43.5N  65.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 46.5N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 48.7N  53.8W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 52.2N  38.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 55.0N  22.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 61.0N   9.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":45,"Date":"2005-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME OF\r\nITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.  RECON MEASURED AT 06Z A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY AS\r\nAS STRONG AS 63 KT...WELL EAST OF THE CENTER.  DROPSONDES IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT MEASURED ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE ABOUT 120\r\nN MI FROM THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE RECON DATA...THE WIND RADII IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN EXPANDED... AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 50 KT.  THE INCREASING RADIUS OF\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SEEN ON SATELLITE... WITH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONFINED DOWNSHEAR TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK BAND\r\nEXTENDING SOUTHWARD...ARE INDICATIONS THAT OPHELIA WILL SOON BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  HOWEVER...IT COULD MAINTAIN MUCH OF ITS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A GOOD BIT FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE...040/18.  OPHELIA IS NOW CAUGHT UP IN THE MIDLATITUDE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE U.S.  MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT ON THE GRADUAL\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD BEND IN THE PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...WHICH IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT JUST A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE... AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 39.5N  70.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 42.1N  67.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 45.4N  62.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 48.0N  56.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 49.6N  49.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 52.5N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 57.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 62.5N   7.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":46,"Date":"2005-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION...AND A TROUGH OR POSSIBLE FRONTAL BAND\r\nIS FORMING SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BUT MAINTAIN GALE TO POSSIBLY\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/18.  OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEAST\r\nACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN MOVE GENERALLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE FAST WESTERLY\r\nFLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 40.7N  69.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 43.4N  65.3W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 46.4N  59.8W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 48.8N  53.8W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 50.5N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 54.0N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 59.0N  16.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 64.0N   7.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":47,"Date":"2005-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nREMAINING MINIMAL CONVECTION...AND A TROUGH OR POSSIBLE FRONTAL\r\nBAND CONTINUES TO FORM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN THE NEXT 12 HR... BUT MAINTAIN GALE TO\r\nPOSSIBLY STORM FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/21.  OPHELIA SHOULD ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEAST NEAR OR ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND...THEN MOVE\r\nGENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN THE FAST\r\nWESTERLY FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 42.4N  66.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 44.8N  62.6W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 47.7N  56.5W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 49.8N  50.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 51.4N  43.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 55.0N  28.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 60.5N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 66.0N   7.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":48,"Date":"2005-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT\r\n24-25 KT...ALL THE WHILE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THERE\r\nIS NO DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NMI OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN WHAT\r\nCONVECTION THERE IS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING. WHILE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...SURROUNDING SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW- TO MID-60F\r\nRANGE. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT OPHELIA IS...OR\r\nIS VERY NEAR...BEING AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. OPHELIA\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN\r\nCOAST OF NOVA SCOTIA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE\r\nDAY SUNDAY AS POSSIBLY A GALE AREA.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY ON OPHELIA. FUTURE\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED\r\nBY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE...AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST ISSUED\r\nBY NOAA'S OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 43.9N  63.8W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 46.2N  59.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 48.8N  53.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 50.6N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 52.2N  40.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 57.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 63.0N  11.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 67.0N   5.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED EAST OF\r\nTHE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS ORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSEVENTEEN.  THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS A CLUSTER OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER...OTHER CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...AS 40 KT WINDS SEEN IN A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING MAY HAVE HAD RAIN CONTAMINATION\r\nPROBLEMS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND HOW MUCH THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM MAY HAVE REFORMED DURING THE NIGHT.  STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THEM DID NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY\r\nWELL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FARTHER EAST\r\nGFDL AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE MORE WESTERLY BAM MODELS AND\r\nLBAR.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT.  THUS...STEADY STRENGTHENING\r\nSHOULD OCCUR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT BY 120 HR...AND THIS A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN EITHER THE SHIPS OR THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS.  WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER THE POSITION AND\r\nMOTION OF THE CYCLONE ARE BETTER ESTABLISHED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 13.0N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 13.7N  55.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N  56.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N  57.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N  58.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  61.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N  62.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  63.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A BROAD AND\r\nELONGATED CIRCULATION CENTER ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STRONG\r\nCONVECTION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN...WITH THE REPORTED\r\nPOSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. \r\nTHE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB AND THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1500 FT SO FAR ARE 40 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT IT SHOULD REACH\r\nTHAT STATUS SOMETIME TONIGHT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8.  STEERING\r\nCURRENTS REMAIN UNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THAT PART OF THE ATLANTIC...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RATHER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...\r\nWITH PERHAPS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER THREE DAYS TOWARDS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO PASS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALTHOUGH MOST OF\r\nTHEM STILL DO NOT NOT INITIALIZE THE SYSTEM VERY WELL.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 30C WATER FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE.  THUS...\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A LITTLE\r\nLESS INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HR AGO AS IT IS FORECASTING A LITTLE\r\nMORE SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nBRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HR AND TO 95 KT\r\nBY 120 HR...IN BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT IMMEDIATELY REQUIRE WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS.  WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 13.8N  55.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.6N  56.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.6N  57.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.6N  58.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.6N  59.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  61.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 23.5N  63.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MCIROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM\r\nPHILIPPE HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS. A 17/2154Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER WEST OF 55W LONGITUDE...WHEREAS THE RECON POSITION NEAR THAT\r\nTIME INDICATED A CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF 55W. MY FEELING IS THAT\r\nTHE RECON CENTER WAS A SMALL CIRCULATION ROTATING NORTHWARD UP THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THAT THE TWO CENTERS\r\nHAVE NOW CONSOLIDATED NEAR 55W. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTH OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nVARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING\r\nPHILIPPE AROUND 06Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 335/4.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nUNUSUALLY WEAK FOR THIS REGION OF THE ATLANTIC...AND PHILIPPE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nBY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THAT MAY RESULT IN A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN WHAT IS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...BUT IS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST MOTION AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 30C AND WARMER SSTS FOR THE NEXT\r\n5 DAYS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KT. \r\nTHEREFORE...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE MORE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME FOR ANY PORTION OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILES. HOWEVER...WITH STEERING CURRENTS BEING RATHER WEAK\r\nAND ILL-DEFINED...ANY WESTWARD SHIFT COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS AT SOME POINT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 14.1N  55.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N  55.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.8N  56.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  57.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N  58.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.6N  59.9W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  61.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  62.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nCLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0...CORRESPONDING TO\r\n45 KT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE\r\nCENTER IS THAT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE T-NUMBER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WE\r\nWILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM\r\nWHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.  PHILIPPE'S UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nRESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS.  MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT DAYS\r\n4-5 BECAUSE THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE AT THESE LATER FORECAST TIMES.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE CONTINUING ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK...325/04.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHIS REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS KIND OF TRACK.  THE CURRENT NHC\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS PRETTY MUCH\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 14.6N  55.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.3N  56.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.4N  56.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  57.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N  58.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  60.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N  61.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  62.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED SOME MORE NEAR THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  AS A RESULT... DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 3.0...SUPPORTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT. \r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SINCE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG\r\nABOUT 25N IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AND PROVIDE A\r\nSOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING\r\nPHILIPPE TO 85 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL IN\r\nFORECASTING ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/6 IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...PERHAPS DUE TO THE CENTER BEING DRAWN IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION BY THE LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST\r\nAND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH TAKES THE\r\nDEVELOPING STORM NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE\r\nCELLS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND OVER THE EASTERN U.S.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.2N  55.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  56.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N  57.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  58.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N  58.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N  60.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  61.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N  62.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nA DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS\r\nDEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE STILL HOLDING AT T3.0/ 45 KT...BUT THE\r\nINTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW \r\nPATTERN IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN\r\nUNSEASONABLY WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT AND ON THIS SCENARIO... WITH THE\r\nONLY DIFFERENCE BEING THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE\r\nFASTEST AND THE GFS IS THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEAR THE\r\nNHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS PHILIPPE PRODUCING A\r\nFAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND PRODUCING LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. WITH\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AT LEAST\r\nSOME MODEST STRENGTHENING SEEMS TO BE IN ORDER.\r\n \r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY\r\nWATCHES OR WARNING FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 15.9N  55.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N  56.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.8N  57.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.9N  58.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.1N  58.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N  59.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N  60.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 28.5N  61.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nOF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  THE PLANE SUBSEQUENTLY CLIMBED\r\nTO 700 MB BECAUSE OF TURBULENCE IN THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS\r\nTYPICAL OF INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nALSO MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 988 MB IN THE EYE BY\r\nDROPWINDSONDE.  THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS OF 17 KT...SO THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER.  USING THE\r\n80 PER CENT FACTOR TO ESIMATE SURFACE WINDS FROM 850 MB...CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.  PHILIPPE IS UPGRADED TO A\r\nHURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...ON THIS ADVISORY. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE\r\nFOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nCONTINUED INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AS PHILIPPE\r\nENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF ABOUT 23N.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST RECON FIXES...THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7...\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTHWARD. \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W.  THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE\r\nHURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD PATH OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.5N  55.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  56.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.6N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N  58.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.8N  58.8W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  59.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  60.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 29.0N  60.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nBASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nANALYSES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH RECON REPORTED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AN EYE HAS NOT YET BEEN\r\nEVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES.  CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW\r\nOVER MOST SECTORS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nENVIRONMENT...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nOF 29-30 DEG C...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT\r\n72 HOURS OR SO.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD WHEN STRONGER WESTERLY SHEAR MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM\r\nTHE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS OUTPUT THROUGH 96 HOURS AND\r\nA LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5.\r\n \r\nBASED ON EARLIER RECON FIXES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN JUST WEST OF DUE\r\nNORTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER...350/6.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60-65W WILL PERSIST FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING REGIME IS CONSISTENT WITH A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE....AND SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 17.1N  56.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N  56.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.9N  57.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 19.9N  57.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  58.4W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N  59.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  60.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 29.5N  60.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A SOMEWHAT RAGGED\r\nHURRICANE WITH THE CENTER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  AN 1156 UTC SSMI\r\nPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED\r\nJUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST\r\nHAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSOUS 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE SSMI MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 345/6 KT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG\r\n60W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...SINCE \r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE TO THE NORTH \r\nTHEN NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nLESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LESSEN BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE\r\nTO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.4N  56.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N  56.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N  57.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 20.2N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 21.7N  58.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  59.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 27.5N  60.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  59.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nREMAINS OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/6 KT. THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS THE SAME WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W. \r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED AS WELL. THE FORECAST MOTION WAS\r\nINCREASED SLIGHTLY N THE EXTENDED RANGE SINCE BOTH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND CONSENSUS TRACKS BEGIN TO ACCELERATE PHILIPPE NORTH AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE HIGH OVER THE EAST ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS\r\nTRACKS.\r\n \r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM RITA WILL\r\nLIKELY INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO\r\nA 90-KT HURRICANE. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AGAIN INCREASE IN 96 TO\r\n120 HOURS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CLOSELY BUT IS\r\nFAR LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE TO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 18.0N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N  56.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.9N  57.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 21.8N  57.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.7N  58.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 27.5N  59.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 31.5N  59.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 36.0N  56.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH PHILIPPE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL DEFINED...BASED ON THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS STRENGTHENED A BIT.  INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 70\r\nKT.  SOME VERTICAL SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED ON THE HURRICANE DUE TO A\r\nSWATH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES EXTENDING FROM THE OUTFLOW OF\r\nRITA...NEAR AND NORTH OF 20N.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT THIS SHEAR WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...330/5. \r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 60W. \r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 18.3N  56.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N  57.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 22.3N  58.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 24.2N  58.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 28.5N  59.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 33.0N  59.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 37.0N  53.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RATHER AMORPHOUS-\r\nLOOKING MASS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT IT MAY BE DEVELOPING SORT OF A COMMA SHAPE. \r\nTHE LACK OF UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SECTORS OF THE\r\nHURRICANE SUGGESTS SOME WESTERLY SHEARING...DUE TO THE FLOW AT THE\r\nBASE OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nOUTFLOW TO THE EAST OF RITA.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO\r\nDIAGNOSES SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...IT NONETHELESS PREDICTS SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SIMILARLY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH UP TO 48\r\nHOURS...BUT GOES A FAIR AMOUNT BELOW SHIPS THEREAFTER BECAUSE THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SIMPLY TOO STRONG FOR PHILIPPE TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nI HAVE ESTIMATED THE CENTER TO BE WEST OF THE FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS \r\nAGENCIES...BOTH FOR CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR.  TRACK FORECAST PHILOSPHY REMAINS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORY PACKAGES. \r\nPHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF 60W.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A STRONG 500 MB\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY DAYS 4-5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALONG THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY\r\nOF...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 18.8N  56.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 19.8N  57.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 21.3N  57.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N  58.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 25.0N  58.6W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 34.0N  58.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 38.0N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF PHILIPPE WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT.\r\nEARLY MORNING SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO DETERMINE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE HURRICANE...AND WITHIN \r\nTHE LAST HOUR OR TWO THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED.\r\nTHIS HAS RESULTED IN A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND A WESTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.\r\nCURRENT DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS SUPPORT AROUND 55 KT.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED\r\nA BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.\r\nTHIS INTENSITY COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS BUT IT IS BETTER TO WAIT TO\r\nSEE IF THE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES BEFORE DOWNGRADING PHILIPPE. \r\n\r\nTHIS TRACK FORECAST CONTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY AND\r\nASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM. THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN\r\nACCELERATE NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nIN 4-5 DAYS. IF THE CURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT RELAX AS\r\nEXPECTED AND PHILIPPE WEAKENS...IT COULD TRACK FURTHER WESTWARD \r\nAND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK WOULD BE NEEDED.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARENCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWEAKENS PHILIPPE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO RELAX THE WESTERLY SHEAR IN 12-24\r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT\r\nRESTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MUCH MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL.  IF PHILIPPE SURVIVES....\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AGAIN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THIS\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 18.3N  57.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.8N  57.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.7N  57.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 22.9N  58.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 25.0N  59.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 35.5N  56.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 40.0N  48.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS MUCH EASIER TO FIND THIS AFTERNOON SINCE THE CENTER IS\r\nEXPOSED JUST WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT DVORAK DATA T\r\nNUMBERS CORRESPOND TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. \r\nBASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE POOR SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARENCE...PHILIPPE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nAGAIN THE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THAT PHILIPPE WILL SURVIVE THE\r\nCURRENT WESTERLY SHEAR AND REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD\r\nINITIAL LOCATION. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS CLOSELY. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 120 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS. \r\n \r\nTHE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF PHILIPPE \r\nCONTINUES TO PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR. IT SEEMS THAT THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS ARE MOVING THE UPPER LOW TOO QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...SO\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MIGHT NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS SOON\r\nAS THE MODELS SUGGEST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL CLOSELY BY ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE A\r\nLITTLE...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL STORM TO SLOWLY RESTRENGTHEN IN THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE\r\nTHAN THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SHEAR\r\nWILL INCREASE AGAIN IN 48-72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE ONCE AND FOR ALL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.8N  57.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N  57.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.8N  58.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  59.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 26.5N  59.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 32.0N  60.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 37.5N  54.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N 60W...CONTINUES\r\nTO INHIBIT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF PHILIPPE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nREMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE SEMBLANCE OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES...WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP AND\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY SHEAR AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE GFS\r\nPREDICTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DEGENERATE INTO A NORTHEAST-\r\nSOUTHWEST SHEAR AXIS...AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL WEAKEN\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE PHILIPPE MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY\r\nTO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY PREDICTING TROPICAL 200\r\nMB FLOWS...AND THE SHEARING OVER THE STORM MAY NOT RELAX.  IN ANY\r\nEVENT...AROUND 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nFINAL WEAKENING TREND.  BY 5 DAYS...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE\r\nMERGING WITH A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE USING INFRARED IMAGERY.  MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 340/5.  REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY\r\nUNCHANGED.  PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...UNTIL IT PASSES ABOUT 32N.  AFTERWARD THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MAINLY AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 19.3N  57.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.7N  57.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.9N  58.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 25.2N  58.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 27.5N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 38.0N  52.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN... AS\r\nPERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 23N 60W IMPINGES ON PHILIPPE. \r\nTHE GFS HAS BEEN INDICATING THAT THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN...\r\nAND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL LESSEN.  THIS IS DIAGNOSED BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nIN 24-36 HOURS.  GIVEN THE DIFFICULTIES THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CAN\r\nHAVE IN PREDICTING TROPICAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOWS...I AM SOMEWHAT\r\nDUBIOUS ABOUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE...SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON \r\nRESTRENGTHENING.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...PHILIPPE IS\r\nLIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL\r\nFORECAST FIELDS.\r\n\r\nIT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...\r\nALTHOUGH AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0201Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS\r\nNOT AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THUS THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE...350/4...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE SLOWER\r\nSTARTING SPEED DICTATES A LITTLE SLOWER FORECAST FOR THE FIRST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  OTHERWISE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE SAME\r\nGENERAL PATH AS IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL/\r\nUKMET/NOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.  IT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT PHILIPPE\r\nWILL RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nSTRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  A\r\nSLIGHTLY UNSETTLING ASPECT OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z GFS\r\nRUN...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW PHILIPPE GETTING COMPLETELY PICKED UP BY\r\nTHE TROUGH...AND LEAVES A PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WANDERING ABOUT IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICS.  THIS SCENARIO IS REJECTED AT THE PRESENT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 19.5N  57.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 21.2N  57.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 23.3N  58.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 25.7N  59.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 28.2N  59.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 33.5N  58.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE NEAR 23N\r\n61W CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nREMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IN\r\nMORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. OVERNIGHT POSITION ESTIMATES \r\nWERE NOT BAD AND ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO BE\r\nMADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nBETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT.  A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT DETECT ANY\r\nBELIEVABLE 50 KT WIND VECTORS AND THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/5. THE FORECAST REASONING\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH PHILIPPE EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES OCCUR IN THE EXTENDED\r\nPERIODS.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF NOW SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nMAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND GFDL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AND EVENTUAL ABSORPTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL BACK OFF ON ABSORPTION AND ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE A 5 DAY\r\nFORECAST POINT. IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE IN THAT SOLUTION...THE 5\r\nDAY FORECAST POINT MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED WESTWARD IN SUBSEQUENT\r\nFORECASTS.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE CURRENT SHEARED CONDITION OF PHILIPPE...AND WITH NO\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR LIKELY...IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHY\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS RE-INTENSIFY PHILIPPE.  OUT OF\r\nDEFERENCE TO THIS GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A LITTLE\r\nRESTRENGTHENING...BUT CONTINUED WEAKENING SEEMS JUST AS LIKELY.   \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 20.2N  57.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N  57.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 23.8N  58.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  58.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  57.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 38.5N  50.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 41.5N  44.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF PHILIPPE REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS\r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 40\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 360/8.\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD BASED ON THE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD CURRENT MOTION. THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN THE LONGER RANGE...THE GFS IS NOW THE\r\nONLY MODEL THAT SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT GET PICKED UP BY A\r\nLARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS\r\nDISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nINTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nSOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT PHILIPPE WILL\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 120 HOURS...BUT IT MAY HAPPEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE MUCH...ONE WOULD THINK THAT PHILIPPE WOULD\r\nREMAIN STEADY STATE OR CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THE FUTURE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN PHILLIPE AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 22N62W COULD\r\nTRANSITION THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO MORE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIN 24-36 HOUR WITH AN EXPANDED WIND FIELD TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST THE SHEAR BECOMES MUCH STRONGER AND THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE BECOMING FINALLY BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 21.2N  57.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 22.8N  57.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 25.3N  57.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 27.8N  58.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.5N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 35.0N  56.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 38.5N  49.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 42.5N  41.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A\r\nLARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO ITS\r\nWEST.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 40 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING.  IF THE SHEARING INFLUENCE\r\nOF THE UPPER CYCLONE PERSISTS...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND\r\nCOULD EVEN DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT\r\nTHE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC\r\nFLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE.  IF THAT WERE TO\r\nVERIFY...THE SYSTEM COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE HYBRID-TYPE OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER\r\nCYCLONE.  INDEED...THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nAPPEARANCE.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY\r\nSHOWS SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION IS\r\nLIKELY TO OCCUR IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND WITHOUT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES...SO THE INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. \r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...A STRONG\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ASSIST\r\nRECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES...WITH ACCELERATION.  THE GFS\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A PORTION OF PHILIPPE GETTING PICKED UP BY\r\nTHE TROUGH.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5...ONLY  BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT\r\nUNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY PICKED UP BY THE\r\nTROUGH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 22.4N  57.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 24.2N  57.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 26.6N  58.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 29.2N  58.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 31.7N  59.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 35.5N  55.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 38.5N  49.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 42.0N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION IN\r\nSCATTERED CLUSTERS NEAR/AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER AND LITTLE\r\nEVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nWEAKENED TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  SHEARING AND SUBSIDENCE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N 62W HAVE\r\nBEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SQUEEZED INTO A CYCLONIC\r\nSHEAR AXIS...CREATING AN ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FIELD OVER\r\nPHILIPPE THAT WOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER I SEE NO SIGN OF\r\nTHIS HAPPENING WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE NO CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY THEREAFTER.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT...GIVEN ITS\r\nSOMEWHAT SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE...THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN AS A\r\nHYBRID-TYPE OF CYCLONE.  ASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH\r\nA FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FORECAST SHOWS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER CANNOT BE IDENTIFIED WITH GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND I\r\nHAVE BASED THE LOCATION PRIMARILY ON A POOR FIX USING AN AMSU-B\r\nIMAGE.  A RECENT AMSR-E IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE\r\nLOCATED MORE TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY TO CONFIRM THIS.  FOR THE TIME BEING...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 350/10.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE A MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH PRESSURE CELL.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO\r\nWHETHER PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  SOME GLOBAL MODELS...E.G. THE GFS...\r\nINDICATE THAT AT LEAST A PIECE OF PHILIPPE'S VORTICITY WILL BE LEFT\r\nBEHIND IN THE SUBTROPICS.  BECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 23.3N  57.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N  57.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 28.1N  59.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 30.5N  60.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 32.5N  59.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 35.0N  54.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 37.0N  48.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 38.5N  41.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nDETERMINING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS MORNING.\r\nTHE CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS APPEARS\r\nTO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND\r\nSATELLITE REPRESENTATION SHOWS THE OVERALL SYSTEM OBTAINING\r\nSUBTROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS RATHER QUICKLY. DVORAK\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS ARE ARE 2.5...35 KT FROM TAFB AND 1.5...25 KT FROM\r\nSAB. BASED ON A FEW POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS\r\nFROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/15. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES PHILIPPE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE FUTURE TRACK\r\nOF THE PHILIPPE/EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE UKMET MODEL ACCELERATES THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN THREE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS MODEL FORECASTS\r\nA WEAKENING SLOW DECAY WITH LITTLE NORTHEAST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TAKES A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...ABSORBING PHILIPPE\r\nINTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION WITHIN 12 HOURS. UNLESS\r\nTHE REMNANT VORTICITY OF PHILIPPE BECOMES BETTER DEFINED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE\r\nFOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IF THE GFS SOLUTION\r\nPLAYS OUT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 26.2N  57.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 28.2N  57.6W    35 KT...ABSORBED\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 30.6N  58.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 32.6N  58.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 34.5N  57.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 36.5N  51.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 38.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 40.0N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER OF\r\nPHILIPPE ACTUALLY STILL HAS A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION...\r\nTHERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION AND APPARENT ROTATION TO KEEP THE SYSTEM\r\nAS A NOMINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING.  PHILIPPE IS A\r\nSMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD NON-TROPICAL AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 30 KT SHIP REPORT SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH SHEAR AND DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH.  A HIGHLY\r\nDIFLUENT LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE CYCLONE'S\r\nNORTH...BUT THIS PATTERN AND PHILIPPE APPEAR TO BE MOVING MORE OR\r\nLESS IN TANDEM...SO I AM NOT EXPECTING THE CYCLONE TO BE ABLE TO\r\nTAKE ADVANTAGE.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS PHILIPPE\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING\r\nABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/15.  PHILIPPE...WHICH IS A RELATIVELY\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER LOW IN\r\nWHICH IT IS EMBEDDED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS A FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING PHILIPPE FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES GENERALLY WITH THIS SCENARIO. \r\nHOWEVER...AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES\r\nAMONG THE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATING PHILIPPE\r\nAND/OR THE NON-TROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nLEAVE PHILIPPE BEHIND OR MOVE IT NORTHEAST ONLY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER SOLUTION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE 12Z UKMET RUN.\r\n\r\nIT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT PHILIPPE WILL LOSE ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nAND DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 27.5N  57.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 29.5N  59.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 31.3N  60.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 32.8N  60.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 35.0N  58.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH RATHER COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAIN NEAR THE ALLEGED\r\nCENTER OF PHILIPPE. A 2207 UTC SSMI OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME IDEA AS\r\nTO THE CENTER LOCATION. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A CLOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT\r\nBECOMES CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER EXISTS. BASED\r\nON A 2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN \r\nA BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEGAN\r\nSUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A HIGH\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nFROM THE SOUTH.  IF PHILIPPE SURVIES...A MODEST INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 345/15. THERE HAS NOT BEEN\r\nMUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND GFDL STILL\r\nSUGGESTING THAT PHILIPPE WILL SLOW DOWN AND NOT GET PICKED UP BY\r\nTHE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nACCELERATE PHILIPPE AND/OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD \r\nAND MERGES IT WITH THE FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO BUT IS NOT AS FAST WITH THE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. THE TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nEASTWARD BUT IT REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 28.8N  58.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 30.7N  59.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 33.0N  59.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 35.3N  58.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 36.5N  55.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nAFTER COMING OUT OF THE DREADED SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD... NIGHT\r\nTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE PHILIPPE MADE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST...OR 325 DEGREES... AND ACCELERATED UP TO 20-22 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE HAS TURNED MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT A SLOWER SPEED...BUT TOWARD BERMUDA.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n25 KT FROM SAB. AFWA CAME IN WITH A 45-KT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE USING THE CENTER OF THE LARGE LOW MUCH FARTHER\r\nTO THE SOUTH. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 30-KT\r\nNON-RAINFLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT... SO THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/16. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE TO ROTATE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD AROUND THE NORTH SIDE\r\nOF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF\r\nBERMUDA... AND GRADUALLY DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT PHILIPPE COULD GET SHEARED OUT AND ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL LOW... OR REMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY AND ESCAPE THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE LARGE LOW AND SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE BEING\r\nABSORBED BY AN APPPOACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS\r\nTHE ONE CHOSEN AND INDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nHOWEVER...WHETHER PHILIPPE EVENTUALLY GETS ABSORBED TO THE SOUTH OR\r\nRECURVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST... THE CENTER AND SOME OF THE\r\nSTRONGER WINDS MAY GET UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE TO THE BERMUDA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWITH SUCH STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF\r\n40-60 KT FORECAST EXPECTED TO AFFECT PHILIPPE WITHIN 36 HOURS... IT\r\nIS UNLIKELY THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. STEADY WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nMUCH LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS PHILIPPE UP TO 58 KT\r\nIN 60 HOURS... IN THE FACE OF 58 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 30.5N  60.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 32.0N  61.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 33.7N  61.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 35.1N  59.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 37.4N  54.6W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LEFTWARD BEND IN TRACK CONTINUES...AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW AROUND 290/16...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-AVERAGE SPEED IS EVEN\r\nFASTER.  PHILIPPE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER\r\nDEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  IN FACT...PHILIPPE NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EMBEDDED\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION.  SINCE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH IS BECOMING\r\nTHE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nPHILIPPE TO BECOME ABSORBED AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER... IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE\r\nEVEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR\r\nBERMUDA.  EVEN IF PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ISLAND AS A RESULT\r\nOF THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 31.1N  63.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 31.5N  66.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Philippe","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS A VERY SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nNO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN 12-24\r\nHOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  INITIAL MOTION IS 250/15...AND\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL ABSORPTION.\r\n\r\nTHE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FOR BERMUDA.  HOWEVER SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS\r\nACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE ISLAND\r\nTONIGHT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 29.9N  64.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 29.4N  66.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Philippe","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE REMAINS...AT BEST...A SMALL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A BROADER NON-TROPICAL LOW.  AS IT IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 29.0N  64.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS HAS\r\nACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB AND EARLIER SHIP\r\nREPORTS. BANDING HAS INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nSEVERAL MODERATE CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED AROUND\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TD-18 IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT LIES JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY\r\nFILL AS THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BUILDS EASTWARD.\r\nHOWEVER...THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FILLING RDIGE WEAKNESS IS\r\nUNCERTAIN AND THAT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nBEFORE IT TURNS WESTWARD. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL KEEP\r\nTHE SYSTEM OVER OR SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. ONLY THE CANADIAN\r\nMODEL AND THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS BRING THE STORM ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HOURS. SINCE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nCOULD EASILY DEVELOP ANY WHERE WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...\r\nWHICH COULD RESULT IN NORTH-SOUTH SHIFTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALL INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...SOUTH\r\nFLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA SHOULD\r\nPAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE OF A CHALLENGE THAN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT IN THE 36-60 HOUR TIME FRAME...WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER\r\n30C AND WARMER SSTS. THIS WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR DOES NOT GET ENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER. AFTERWARDS...\r\nTHE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL GRADUALLY INCREASES THE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR TO MORE THAN 20 KT AND LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT\r\n73 KT. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A\r\n200 MB ANTICYCLONE WITH AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING\r\nACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS BY 48 HOURS. EVEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A\r\nSIMILAR UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SUCH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE MUCH\r\nSTRONGER BY 72 HOURS THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL. THE 18Z GFDL MODEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A\r\n120-KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. WHILE THAT RATE OF INTENSIFICATION\r\nMAY BE A LITTLE EXCESSIVE...THIS SYSTEM REACHING STRONG CATEGORY 2\r\nSTATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS IS CERTAINLY A VIABLE SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 22.0N  69.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  71.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 23.1N  73.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.6N  75.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  77.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  90.5W    80 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS EN ROUTE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nPHILIPPE WAS DIVERTED TO THE DEPRESSION...AND WE VERY MUCH\r\nAPPRECIATE THE LAST MINUTE FLEXIBILITY OF THE AIRCREW.  WHEN THEY\r\nFIRST GOT TO THE DEPRESSION...THEY DIDN'T FIND MUCH...INCLUDING\r\nONLY 5 KT OF WEST WIND AND A CENTER SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...ON THEIR SECOND PASS THROUGH THEY FOUND THAT\r\nTHE CENTER HAD MIGRATED OR REDEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...\r\nWHICH IS NOW TAKING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE BANDED APPEARANCE ON THE\r\nFIRST FEW IMAGES AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE.  THESE OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 36 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 25 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRE A RELOCATION OF THE CENTER TO THE SOUTH\r\nAND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT\r\nSOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE BASIC TRACK\r\nREASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST EAST OF FLORIDA. AFTER THAT...HIGH\r\nPRESSURE OVER TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION\r\nWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE UKMET IS FARTHER SOUTH...TAKING THE CYCLONE\r\nACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA.  THE CANADIAN MODEL IS ALSO SOUTH\r\nOF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...TAKING THE CENTER JUST SOUTH OF KEY WEST.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA...AND THIS\r\nLOW IS PRODUCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  THIS\r\nSHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...THIS LOW\r\nIS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A\r\nNARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. \r\nTHIS UPPER PATTERN...COUPLED WITH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD FAVOR MORE RAPID\r\nDEVELOPMENT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE AVOIDS THE LAND MASS OF CUBA. \r\nTHE GFDL IS NOT NEARLY AS AGRESSIVE AS IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...NOT\r\nMAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY IN BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH AND FOLLOWS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 21.7N  71.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 22.2N  73.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 22.8N  75.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 23.4N  77.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 23.8N  80.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 24.0N  84.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  89.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 24.0N  93.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING\r\nBANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE UNANIMOUSLY 30 KT... AND THIS IS THE NEW\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER\r\nWESTERN CUBA...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD...CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPOSE THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ON THE DEPRESSION THAT IS CAUSING THE\r\nASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN.  HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS\r\nUPPER LOW/TROUGH FEATURE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nUPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.  THIS PATTERN CHANGE...ALONG WITH\r\nPLENTY WARM OCEAN WATERS...SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT\r\nMORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE GFS-BASED SHIPS\r\nDIAGNOSES MUCH LESS SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  AS IS OFTEN\r\nTHE CASE WITH DEVELOPING SYSTEMS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT.  THE GFDL REMAINS FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE...NOT\r\nFORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE UNTIL IT IS WELL INTO\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS FORECASTS A 64 KT\r\nHURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING\r\nTHEREAFTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR COULD BE FORCING SOME\r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...AND IN FACT IT COULD ALREADY BE SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION.  THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT RIDGING TO FORCE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH\r\nSOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME DOWNSHEAR\r\nREFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEN\r\nALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...EXCEPT FOR INTRODUCING A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO MODELS\r\nEXPECTED SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE CURRENT SIZE\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION AND ON WIND RADII CLIPER GUIDANCE.  BASED ON THE\r\nNEW FORECAST... HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA\r\nKEYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 22.0N  72.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 22.6N  73.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 23.2N  76.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 23.7N  78.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 23.8N  80.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 24.0N  85.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 24.0N  90.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N  94.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND A VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELD JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION... BUT DID RECENTLY MEASURE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005\r\nMB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KT... WELL TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY... SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAVE INDICATED WINDS OF 30-35 KT\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THESE DATA... COMBINED WITH DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS.  THE LACK OF WIND NEAR THE CENTER\r\nIS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE CONVECTION AND PERHAPS A\r\nMID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH... DUE TO\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL IN THE PROCESS OF ORGANIZING.  IT HAS A\r\nFAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION AND SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -70C... AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE SHEAR... IT IS BECOMING WELL\r\nESTABLISHED IN THE REMAINING THREE QUADRANTS.  SINCE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE UPPER LOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW AN UPPER RIDGE TO\r\nBUILD IN ITS PLACE OVER FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN\r\nBAHAMAS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nMORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  WHILE THE GFDL STILL DOES NOT\r\nFORECAST DEVELOPMENT UNTIL RITA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE FORECAST OF 64 KT BY 48 HOURS SEEMS MORE LIKELY. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...ANTICIPATING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS. \r\nADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST ONCE THE STORM REACHES THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST MOTION ARE COMPLICATED BY THE ASYMMETRIC\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...WHICH SEEM TO WANT TO DRAG THE SYSTEM NORTH OF A\r\nDUE WEST TRACK...WHILE A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS TRYING TO FORCE THE SYSTEM DUE WESTWARD.  THESE FACTORS\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO BATTLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR\r\nRELAXES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH IN TAKING\r\nTHE SYSTEM THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...IN SOME CASES SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST...TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SINCE IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THE CENTER\r\nWILL REFORM FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 22.2N  72.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 22.6N  74.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 23.2N  77.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 23.5N  79.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N  82.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  87.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 24.0N  91.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 25.5N  95.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON REPORT AT 17/2324Z INDICATED MAXIMUM RELIABLE 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...OR ROUGHLY 44 KT SURFACE WINDS.\r\nTHERE WAS ONE FLIGHT-LEVEL REPORT OF 67 KT...BUT THIS OCCURRED\r\nDURING CLIMBOUT TO A HIGHER ALTITUDE TO AVOID TURBULENCE...AND IS\r\nTHEREFORE NOT DEEMED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL WIND FIELD. SINCE\r\nTHE LAST RECON FLIGHT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. RITA HAS ACTUALLY BEEN MOVING\r\nOR PROPAGATING NORTHWESTWARD THE PAST 6 TO 9 HOURS. THIS MOTION MAY\r\nBE DUE TO THE CENTER REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR\r\nACTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD A WEAKER BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED ALONG 75W LONGITUDE. ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PREVIOUSLY\r\nLOCATED NEAR JAMAICA HAS MOVED NORTHWESTWARD TO NEAR CAYMAN BRAC\r\nAND HAS NOT WEAKENED LIKE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING.\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF UPPER\r\nLOW...COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF\r\nA LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA...SHOULD STEER RITA\r\nIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 TO PERHAPS\r\n24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT THE LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE GULF COAST\r\nFROM A HIGH CENTER OVER LOUISIANA WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EASTWARD AND\r\nTURN RITA WESTWARD. HOWEVER...THE SAME MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE\r\nHEIGHTS WILL NOT INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND...IN FACT...\r\nHEIGHTS FROM 700 MB TO 400 MB HAVE NOT INCREASED ACROSS SOUTH\r\nFLORIDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT THE WIND SPEEDS HAVE\r\nDECREASED. THIS ALL SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE\r\nEAST OF FLORIDA MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED IN THE MODEL\r\nFIELDS. AS SUCH...THERE MAY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nTRACKS IN THE 00Z MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...WITH SUCH A LARGE AND\r\nSTRONG RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF COAST...RITA SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nEVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND INTO THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nWAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THIS NORTHWARD SHIFT HAS\r\nREQUIRED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH\r\nFLORIDA TO BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 15 KT DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 36-72\r\nHOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO\r\nCOCUR...ESPECIALLY SINCE RITA WILL BE OVER 30C SSTS AND IMPRESSIVE\r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN WILL BE MAINTAINED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE TO MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...AT LEAST 100 KT...BY 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 22.9N  73.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 23.4N  75.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 24.1N  77.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 24.3N  80.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 24.2N  83.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 24.1N  88.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 24.5N  92.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  95.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHE NEW RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN THE SYSTEM AT 07Z FOUND THAT THE\r\nPRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 999 MB...AND FIRST SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER\r\nTHE ECLIPSE SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND HAS TAKEN A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE.  A\r\nDROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT HAD 44 KT AT THE SURFACE...WITH\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS IN THIS QUADRANT OF 57 KT.  THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT HAS NOT YET BEEN SAMPLED...AND I PRESUME THAT HIGHER WINDS\r\nWILL BE FOUND THERE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE LAST TWO AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION...BUT\r\nWITH ALL THE CENTER REFORMATIONS THAT HAVE OCCURRED IT IS DIFFICULT\r\nTO ASCERTAIN A REPRESENTATIVE MOTION.  MY BEST JUDGEMENT IS 280/8. \r\nRITA HAS ALREADY PASSED THE LONGITUDE OF THE BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND WILL COME UNDER INCREASING PRESSURE TO HAVE\r\nTHE TRACK NUDGE TO THE LEFT.  FURTHERMORE...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION\r\nIS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC...THERE SHOULD BE LESS\r\nLIKELIHOOD OF ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ADJUSTED TO THE CURRENT LOCATION IS VERY TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ON A PATH THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTH OF KEY\r\nWEST...AND I HAVE ADJUSTED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ABRUPTLY WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF\r\nAND ALLOWING RITA TO BEGIN A SHARPER RECURVATURE TRACK.  WHILE I\r\nHAVE ADJUSTED THE 120-HR POINT ABOUT 120 NM NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...I AM STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE 120-HR\r\nGUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN IS SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND AS IT DOES SO THE SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER RITA WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A\r\nFASTER DEVELOPMENT RATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 22.7N  74.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 23.1N  76.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 23.6N  78.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 24.0N  81.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 24.2N  84.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N  88.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N  92.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  96.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON FIX SHORTLY BEFORE 12Z...WHICH MEASURED A 997\r\nMB CENTRAL PRESSURE...VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER...SO RITA IS DEVELOPING SUBSTANTIAL INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION FOR THE FIRST TIME.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z\r\nWERE UNANIMOUSLY T3.5/55 KT...WHICH IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. \r\nRECON IS SCHEDULED TO BE BACK INTO THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nRITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10\r\nKNOTS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH 36 HOURS ON BASICALLY THIS CONTINUED\r\nHEADING...WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DEEPENS. \r\nMOST OF THE MODELS AND THEIR CONSENSUS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED LIKEWISE...BRINGING THE TRACK\r\nCLOSER TO THE FLORIDA KEYS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nADDITIONALLY...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...DUE TO A\r\nWEAKENING RIDGE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES IN SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nNORTH OR RIGHT OVER THE GULF...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nRECON DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE SIZE OF THE STORM\r\nIS INCREASING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nFORECAST WIND RADII ARE EXPANDED BASED ON THESE DATA...WIND RADII\r\nCLIPER GUIDANCE...AND GLOBAL MODELS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING SYSTEM. \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT RITA COULD AFFECT A LARGE AREA\r\nAND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.\r\n\r\nATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND ALL FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RITA SHOULD\r\nINTENSIFY SOME MORE...BEFORE AND AFTER IT REACHES THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND\r\nIS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND\r\nSHOWS RITA REACHING CATEGORY TWO STATUS BEFORE REACHING THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER\r\nTHAN FORECAST.  ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA WILL BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... WHERE A LARGE UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DOMINATE AND PROVIDE A\r\nWEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 23.0N  75.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 23.4N  76.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 24.0N  79.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 24.4N  81.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 24.7N  84.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N  88.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 26.5N  92.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 29.0N  95.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nRITA IS CLOSE TO HURRICANE STATUS... BUT IT IS NOT QUITE THERE YET.\r\nTHE STORM IS PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nBANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS...AND\r\nINCREASINGLY WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW INDICATING LESSENING SHEAR. \r\nTHE OVERALL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THIS OFTEN OCCURS DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD.  DATA FROM THE STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ONBOARD A NOAA HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT...RECENTLY INDICATED SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS 62\r\nKT ABOUT 25 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE MEASURED BY DROPSONDE HAS BEEN HOLDING AT 994-995 MB...\r\nAND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT.\r\n \r\nRITA IS ON TRACK... AND AS ANTICIPATED IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW AT 285/12. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THIS MOTION WILL CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE WEST INTO THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 30N. THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE LEFT\r\nOR WEST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BRINGING THE CONSENSUS INTO GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. OVERALL THE NEW SUITE OF\r\nGUIDANCE PROVIDES LITTLE REASON TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK... EXCEPT TO SPEED IT UP JUST SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE MODELS OVER THE GULF REMAINS SIGNIFICANT...SINCE\r\nIT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL\r\nMIGRATE FAR ENOUGH EASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO CURVE\r\nRITA NORTHWARD AROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN\r\nFORECAST A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS...WHILE THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL FORECAST A NORTHWARD BEND TOWARD THE TEXAS/LOUSIANA\r\nBORDER REGION. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...IT MUST AGAIN BE EMPHASIZED\r\nTHAT FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE QUITE LARGE AT THESE LONGER LEAD TIMES.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH RITA IS NOT YET A HURRICANE...CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR IT TO BECOME ONE SOON...PRIOR TO REACHING THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO APPEARS PROBABLE...GIVEN THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DOMINATE THE AREA\r\nAND PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY...OCEAN\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM IN THE GULF...AND NOT JUST AT THE\r\nSURFACE. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN CALLING FOR A PEAK AT 105\r\nKT OVER THE GULF IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE\r\nGFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST AN EVEN STRONGER HURRICANE OVER\r\nTHE GULF...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 23.3N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.7N  78.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 24.2N  80.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 24.6N  83.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 24.9N  85.9W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N  90.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 27.5N  93.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 30.0N  96.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nRITA REMAINS JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE STORM PRODUCED A\r\nMASSIVE BURST OF COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE\r\nEVENING...AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN BANDING. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION HAS NOT YET PRODUCED\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nHAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT 39 N MI\r\nNORTHWEST OF OF THE CENTER...AND A CENTER DROPSONDE OF 992 MB WITH\r\n33 KT SURFACE WINDS.  BASED ON THE THIS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS\r\n990 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...UNCERTAIN\r\nBECAUSE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION SEEMS TO BE A LITTLE MORE TO THE\r\nLEFT.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 HR.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER RITA ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK...AND ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO.  AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE\r\nHANDLING OF THE GULF COAST RIDGE.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE\r\nRIDGE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST...THUS FORECASTING RITA TO MOVE INTO\r\nTHE LOWER OR MIDDLE TEXAS COASTS IN 4-5 DAYS TIME.  THE GFDL AND\r\nGFS CALL FOR THE RIDGE TO MOVE FATHER EASTWARD AND FORECAST RITA TO\r\nMAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK AFTER 72 HR WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...\r\nCALLING FOR A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.  THE TRACK AFTER\r\n72 HR IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DUE TO\r\nTHE MODEL SPREAD.\r\n \r\nUP TO NOW...RITA HAS HAD PROBLEMS DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED INNER\r\nCORE.  THIS MIGHT BE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.  OTHER THAN THAT...\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS LIKELY\r\nTHAT RITA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW HOURS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...\r\nALTHOUGH STRONGER THAN BOTH.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST VERY\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE VERY WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  SO FAR THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED...BUT\r\nTHE GFDL COULD BE RIGHT IF RITA ESTABLISHES A BETTER INNER CORE. \r\nTHERE IS THUS A POSSIBILITY THAT RITA COULD BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE PASSING THE FLORIDA KEYS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHE GFDL CALLS FOR RITA TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS\r\nTHE STORM FOR THE REST OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE\r\nTO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OF THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO BEING LESS THAN THOSE IN THE FLORIDA\r\nSTRAITS...EXCEPT IN THE LOOP CURRENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE REVISED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 23.3N  77.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 23.7N  79.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 24.2N  82.1W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N  84.9W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 24.8N  87.4W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 25.5N  91.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 27.5N  94.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  96.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TO CLEAN UP SOME SLOPPY WRITING IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH.\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR PRESENTATION OF RITA IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...\r\nBUT THE CYCLONE STILL LACKS A CLEAR AND PERSISTENT EYEWALL\r\nSIGNATURE. FLIGHT-LEVEL AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE RECONAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STILL DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT UPGRADING\r\nRITA TO A HURRICANE. A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 72 KT WOULD\r\nCORRESPOND TO 65 KT AT THE SURFACE IN AN EYEWALL...BUT RITA DOES\r\nNOT HAVE A TRUE EYEWALL AND DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT 90 PERCENT\r\nIS NOT THE APPROPRIATE ADJUSTMENT WITH THIS STORM AT THIS TIME. THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT.  \r\n\r\nRITA REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/13. \r\nLITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE EARLY\r\nGOING...AS RITA MOVES SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE\r\nFLORIDA STRAITS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...UKMET...\r\nAND GFDL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS\r\nCOAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS STILL ON THE SOUTH END OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE IN EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nA LITTLE WESTWARD TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  AT THIS\r\nPOINT IT IS WAY TO EARLY TO SPECIFY WHERE THE GULF LANDFALL MIGHT\r\nOCCUR.\r\n\r\nRITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH VERY SOON.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BUT NOT\r\nOVERLY SO...WITH OUTFLOW A LITTLE SQUASHED TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNON-EXISTENT TO THE SOUTH...AND THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED WELL\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  EVEN THE RADAR PRESENTATION LOOKS\r\nELONGATED.  STEADY...BUT NOT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE UPPER PATTERN COULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT\r\nIN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.  THE MOST RECENT SHIPS GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT\r\nQUITE GET RITA THERE...AND I WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF RITA ENDS UP\r\nFALLING JUST SHORT OF THAT THRESHOLD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 23.7N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 24.1N  81.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 24.4N  84.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 24.6N  87.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 24.7N  89.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N  93.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 28.5N  96.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  97.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nRITA HAS BECOME THE NINTH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON. DATA FROM\r\nDOPPLER RADAR FROM KEY WEST...SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT RITA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. DOPPLER RADAR PEAK\r\nWINDS AT 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 90 AND\r\n95 KNOTS WITH AN ISOLATED PEAK OF 100 KNOTS...AND DROPSONDES IN THE\r\nEYEWALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE PRESSURE HAS\r\nDECREASED TO 982 MB...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED\r\nWITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. BOTH THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND THE OCEAN BELOW RITA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS\r\nTHE WINDS UP BUT...IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THE DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SINCE IT IS DIFFICULT\r\nTO FORECAST. RITA WILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nTO GO UP AND DOWN IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.\r\n \r\nRITA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS SINCE IT IS\r\nALREADY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST\r\nTO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THERAFTER...THE HIGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. THIS FORECAST PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE RITA\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IS ONE THE CASES\r\nOF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF\r\nTHE RELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW\r\nJUST THE SKINNY BLACK LINE...IT IS ALWAYS GOOD TO REMIND THEM THAT\r\n3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE LARGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 23.8N  81.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.0N  83.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 24.3N  85.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 24.5N  88.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  90.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  94.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 29.5N  96.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-20 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n\r\nDATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES INDICATE THAT\r\nRITA HAS REACHED 100 MPH WINDS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REFLECT\r\nA CHANGE IN BOTH INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE IS NO CHANGE\r\nIN THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1800Z 23.9N  81.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.0N  83.1W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 24.3N  85.8W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 24.5N  88.3W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N  90.5W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  94.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 29.5N  96.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO NEW DATA WHICH SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS SINCE THE 87-KNOT\r\nPEAK SURFACE WIND MEASURED BY THE STEPPED FREQUENCY RADIOMETER...\r\nTHE 93-KNOT SURFACE WIND FROM A DROPSONDE IN THE EYEWALL...AND\r\nABOUT 100 KNOTS ON THE DOPPLER RADAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED WITH AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE AND AN IMPROVING\r\nOUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO HAVE RITA WITH A DEEP CIRCULATION UP TO 200 MB\r\nSURROUNDED BY A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE. THIS PATTERN\r\nSUGGESTS STRENGTHENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BUT\r\nNOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE LATTER WHICH BRINGS RITA TO 125 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER SUCH INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nRITA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS...BY A LARGE\r\nRIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD LEAVING A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RITA TO\r\nTURN GRADUALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS\r\nTOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE\r\nOF RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...\r\nMAINLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SPREAD\r\nIS LARGER BUT MOST OF THE MODELS STILL BRING RITA TO THE TEXAS\r\nCOAST.\r\n\r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RITA AS AN INTENSE HURRICANE WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 24.0N  82.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 24.1N  84.5W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 24.2N  87.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N  89.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 25.0N  91.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 27.0N  94.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 30.0N  97.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 34.1N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT AT 21/0020Z IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT INDICATED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103\r\nKT...ROUGHLY 93 KT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES FROM KEY\r\nWEST HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 113 KT AT 9500 FEET IN SPOTS...WITH THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE HIGHEST VALUES IN THE 105-107 KT RANGE...WHICH\r\nEQUALS ABOUT 95 KT SURFACE WINDS. A RECON PASS THROUGH THE 28 NMI\r\nDIAMETER EYE AT 0204Z INDICATED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 965 MB...\r\nWHICH ROUGHLY EQUALS 95 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT...OR JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. RITA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE STRONG\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS INTACT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND INTO\r\nCENTRAL AND NORTHERN TEXAS. THE 18Z GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS\r\nHAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD TO NEAR THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER. HOWEVER\r\n...BOTH MODELS WERE FORECASTING THE 21/00Z 500 MB HEIGHTS ACROSS\r\nTEXAS TO DECREASE BY 20 METERS...WHEN IN FACT... 21/00Z UPPER-AIR\r\nDATA INDICATE THE HEIGHTS DID NOT CHANGE AND THE MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nOVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS REMAINED QUITE STRONG WITH HEIGHTS NEAR\r\n6000 METERS. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT WAS PALCED ON THE GFS MODEL\r\n...SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TOO\r\nQUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE AND\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL\r\nTREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST\r\nTHAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24\r\nHOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW\r\nACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF\r\nTHE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO\r\nAPPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A\r\nCATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL\r\nTHAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.\r\nTHIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE\r\nSHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE\r\nPREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT\r\nIN 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 24.1N  83.2W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 24.2N  85.2W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 24.4N  87.5W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 24.6N  89.4W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 25.1N  91.4W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 27.1N  94.7W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  96.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 34.5N  96.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED\r\nDUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT.  HOWEVER...BEFORE\r\nTHE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST\r\nWSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT. \r\nADDITIONALLY...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES.  BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF TRENDS FROM THE LAST\r\nAIRCRAFT MISSION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105\r\nKT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE GIVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  RITA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nRIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM\r\nTHEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY\r\nWESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN\r\nJUST OVER 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL.\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF RITA GIVES EVERY IMPRESSION THAT RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND WHILE THE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW\r\nCHANNEL MENTIONED EARLIER IS NOT AS APPARENT NOW THE POLEWARD\r\nOUTFLOW CHANNEL IS STILL GOING STRONG.  THUS INTENSIFICATION COULD\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS OR UNTIL THE EYE\r\nMOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN ABOUT 24 HR.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\nPEAKS RITA AT ABOUT 120 KT IN 12-18 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL PEAKS IT\r\nAT 122 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE PEAKS IT AT 131 KT IN 48\r\nHR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BRING THE SYSTEM TO 125 KT IN 24\r\nHR AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE A\r\nSURPRISE IF RITA BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HR\r\nBEFORE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT DUE TO A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE OR THE\r\nLOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT.  RITA SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS UNTIL LANDFALL...THEN WEAKEN AFTER\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 24.3N  84.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 24.4N  86.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 24.7N  88.7W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 25.2N  90.8W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.9N  92.8W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 28.0N  95.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 31.5N  97.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 35.5N  96.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL NOT BE IN THE AREA OF RITA UNTIL LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS TYPICAL OF AN INTENSE HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD TO 120 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS ARE PEAKING NEAR\r\n7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING WINDS OF NEAR 140 KNOTS. I\r\nWILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO REACH RITA TO INCREASE THE WINDS\r\nFURTHER...IF NECESSARY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND RITA...AS KATRINA DID...WILL BE CROSSING THE LOOP\r\nCURRENT OR AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO. THIS WOULD AID THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE CONTROLLED BY CHANGES IN THE EYEWALL WHICH ARE\r\nDIFFICULT TO PREDICT. THE HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IN THE AREA OF THE LOOP CURRENT SO\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED....BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.   \r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. RITA IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH.  AS THE HIGH MOVES\r\nEASTWARD...RITA WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST BASICALLY TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THAT THE WIND FIELD WILL EXPAND.\r\nTHEREFORE THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINLY. ON\r\nTHIS TRACK AND DUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH RITA...A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR\r\nTONIGHT.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 24.3N  85.9W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 24.5N  87.9W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 25.0N  90.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 25.7N  92.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.6N  94.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 29.0N  96.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 32.5N  97.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 35.5N  97.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nAND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH\r\nNOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT\r\nPRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS\r\nBASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR\r\nFORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES.  BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT\r\nCONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT\r\nCONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED\r\nMAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.\r\nSOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL\r\nAS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.    \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT\r\nHAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT\r\nEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE\r\nCORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND \r\nAND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND\r\nFIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nHAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 24.4N  86.8W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N  88.5W   145 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 25.2N  90.6W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  92.7W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 27.0N  94.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N  97.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 33.0N  97.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 36.0N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nRITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A\r\nDROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF\r\n899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS\r\nUSUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB\r\nRULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT\r\nWIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF\r\nPRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED\r\n2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED\r\nBETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897\r\nMB PRESSURE IS 160 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. RITA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A\r\nLARGE WOBBLE AND SLOWED TO A 285/06 KT MOTION THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...SUCH MOTION CHANGES...WHICH ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR\r\nEXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THE INNER CORE WIND\r\nFIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN REORGANIZES...ARE CONSIDERED TEMPORARY\r\nAND RITA IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE\r\n18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS\r\nMODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DOING THEIR USUAL\r\nAFTERNOON EASTWARD SHIFT. THOSE MODELS NOW BRING RITA ACROSS THE\r\nHOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OTHER\r\nMODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST\r\nWITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS\r\nFAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nINDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL\r\nCONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN\r\nEQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH\r\n30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE\r\nEYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY\r\nMAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH\r\nEXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO\r\nSUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE...\r\nINTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE\r\nNOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 24.6N  87.2W   150 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 24.9N  88.7W   155 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 25.5N  90.5W   150 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 26.3N  92.4W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 27.5N  94.2W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N  96.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 33.5N  96.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 35.0N  96.5W    25 KT...DISSIAPTING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nIF RITA HAS NOT PEAKED IN INTENSITY...IT LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY\r\nCLOSE TO DOING SO.  THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA IS 897 MB...WHICH SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nDURING THE PAST 8 HR.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE\r\n165 KT IN THE NE EYEWALL...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\n161 KT OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS A\r\nINCREASINGLY STRONG OUTER WIND MAXIMUM THAT IS LIKELY THE START OF\r\nA CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THE END OF\r\nTHE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS WARMING OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nBASED ON ALL OF THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 150 KT.\r\n\r\nRITA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/8.  RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES\r\nAND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW RITA TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nNOW CLUSTERED AROUND A LANDFALL BETWEEN THE SABINE RIVER AND\r\nMATAGORDA TEXAS IN 48-60 HR...WITH A NET EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD ABOUT 30 N MI...CALLING FOR LANDFALL NEAR THE\r\nBOLIVAR PENINSULA AND GALVESTON BAY.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT OR WEST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE OF\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  FIRST...THE\r\nMORE NORTHERLY TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP RITA OVER THE LOOP CURRENT\r\nLONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...SO THE EFFECT OF LOWER OCEAN HEAT\r\nCONTENT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE FIRST\r\n24 HR OR SO.  SECOND...THE GFS AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT\r\nSHEAR OVER RITA AFTER 24 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN SHIPS CALLING FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 12 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE EAST OF RITA...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGFS AND SHIPS MAY BE OVERDOING THE SHEAR.  FINALLY...THERE WILL BE\r\nAT LEAST ONE AND POSSIBLE MORE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT\r\nSHEAR AND REDUCED OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING...\r\nESPECIALLY AFTER RITA MOVES WEST OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 24-36 HR. \r\nSUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THIS WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS CAUSED BY\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW OVERALL WEAKENING BUT\r\nNOT AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY SHIPS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 24.9N  88.0W   150 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 25.3N  89.3W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 26.1N  91.1W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 27.2N  92.8W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 28.8N  94.3W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 32.0N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 34.1N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 34.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nRITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY\r\nFOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH\r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON\r\nLOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING\r\nSHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nRITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA\r\nTO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA\r\nCOASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nAND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE\r\nBEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY\r\nLOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE WARNING.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 25.4N  88.7W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 25.8N  89.9W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 26.9N  91.6W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 28.2N  93.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N  94.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 33.0N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 34.0N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 34.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nRITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT\r\nWINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913\r\nMB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN\r\nADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED\r\nTHE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER\r\nWARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE\r\nTHAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING\r\nTHAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE\r\nBEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH\r\nA SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RITA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A\r\nCATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nRITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE\r\nUPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS\r\nEASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nAND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST. ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NEW ORLEANS\r\nAREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO A FEW SQUALLS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nQUICKLY MOVING RAINBANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 25.8N  89.5W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  90.7W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 27.8N  92.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 29.2N  93.8W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N  94.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 33.0N  95.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 33.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 33.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nCYCLE MIGHT BE NEARING COMPLETION.  THERE IS NOW ONLY A SINGLE\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI...ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE OUTER EYEWALL THAT THE AIRCRAFT RADAR INDICATE IS SLOWLY\r\nCONTRACTING... WHILE THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. \r\nRECENT GOES INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT A COMPLETE RING OF\r\nVERY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS...COLDER THAN -70C... NOW SURROUNDS THE\r\nEYE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ONLY RISEN SLIGHTLY TO 917 MB AS\r\nMEASURED BY THE MOST RECENT DROPSONDE.  RECENT FLIGHT LEVEL AND\r\nDROPSONDE WIND DATA DO NOT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY GREATER THAN ABOUT\r\n110 KT...BUT GIVEN THE VERY LOW PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 120 KT.  RITA IS ABOUT TO PASS\r\nOVER ANOTHER EDDY OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.  COMBINING THIS WITH\r\nTHE POSSIBLE CONTRACTION OF THE OUTER EYEWALL DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER ON FRIDAY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE\r\nTO LESSER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CLOSER TO THE COAST...AND TO THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME INCREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR.  THE BOTTOM LINE IS\r\nTHAT THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH RITA HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...THE OVERALL MOTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS\r\nREMAINED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 300/9.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...SINCE THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSTRADDLE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  RITA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AS THE HIGH\r\nTO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD.  RITA IS FORECAST TO THEN ESSENTIALLY\r\nSTALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS IN THE AREA OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS WHERE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY WEAK.  THIS SCENARIO\r\nPOSES A GREAT RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND AND FOR MANY\r\nDAYS AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 26.2N  90.3W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N  91.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 28.4N  93.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 29.8N  94.2W   115 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 31.1N  94.7W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 33.0N  95.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nRITA IS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THIS MORNING...AS\r\nTHE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nSHOWED THAT THE INNER 15 N MI WIDE EYE HAD DISSIPATED AND A SINGLE\r\n33 N MI WIDE EYE EXISTED.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ARE 125-130 KT...WHICH HELPS SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED THAT ANOTHER\r\nWIND MAXIMA HAS FORMED ABOUT 60 N MI FROM THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT\r\nBE THE START OF ANOTHER OUTER EYEWALL.  THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nREPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 927 MB.\r\n\r\nRITA IS MOVING BETWEEN 300-305 DEGREES AT 8-9 KT.  RAWINSONDE DATA\r\nAT 00Z INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PRESENT OVER\r\nTEXAS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHR...ALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BECOME MORE\r\nNORTHERLY.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW CLUSTERED ABOUT A LANDFALL ON THE\r\nUPPER TEXAS COAST IN ROUGHLY 30 HR...WITH THE MODEL TRACK BEING\r\nSPREAD BETWEEN SAN LUIS PASS AND SABINE PASS.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nUP TO LANDFALL IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nAFTER LANDFALL...THE GUIDANCE BECOME VERY DIVERGENT AS HIGH\r\nPRESSURE BUILD TO THE WEST AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF RITA.  GIVEN THE\r\nSPREAD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HR\r\nJUST AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID.  THIS STALLING WILL POSE A\r\nSERIOUS RISK OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WELL INLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC.  SINCE RITA HAS\r\nCOMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY\r\nOF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY...\r\nPOSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE\r\nINCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR\r\nA SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN...AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS DUE TO SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL. \r\nTHIS COULD HAPPEN IF THE SHEAR REACHES THE 25 KT VALUES FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GFS AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 26.8N  91.0W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 27.6N  92.2W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 28.9N  93.6W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 30.4N  94.6W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 31.5N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 33.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 33.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 33.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nRITA HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE EYE IS NOT AS DISTINCT AND\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS NOT AS INTENSE AS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WHICH HAS RISEN TO AROUND 927 MB AND\r\nWINDS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN\r\nTO 115 KNOTS. UNLESS ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE OCCURS THAT COULD BRING\r\nTHE WINDS TEMPORARILY UP A LITTLE BIT...THE OVERALL TENDENCY IS FOR\r\nRITA TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. SO FAR THE PASSAGE OF RITA OVER THE WARM\r\nEDDY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION.\r\nHOWEVER...RESEARCH SUGGESTS THERE IS A LAG IN THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nRESPONSE.  NEVERTHERLESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS\r\nCATEGORY 3 OR...A LITTLE LESS LIKELY...CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nUPPER-AIR DATA SHOWS THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTROLLING THE\r\nMOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY NORTH AND EAST OF RITA AND IS\r\nCENTERED OVER ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE. CONSEQUENTLY...RITA HAS TURNED\r\nMORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING 310 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR THE\r\nUPPER TEXAS OR SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. ONCE\r\nINLAND...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND RITA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN\r\nARKANSAS. RITA BY THEN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nRITA IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND\r\nOUTWARD A GREAT DISTANCE. A SOND DROPPED FROM A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE MEASURED 56 KNOTS SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 120 N MI WEST OF THE\r\nEYE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 27.4N  91.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 28.3N  93.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.0N  94.2W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 31.5N  95.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 33.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.5N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 33.5N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 33.5N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES HAVE BEEN THE DOMINANT FACTOR...AS\r\nUSUAL...IN CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS OF RITA. FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 110 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nINCREASED A LITTLE SUGGESTING STRONGER WINDS BUT I RATHER WAIT FOR\r\nTHESE NUMBERS TO PERSIST. ONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN. THIS IS NOT A VERY\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE AND IN FACT...RITA IS STILL FORECAST TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL. ON THIS\r\nTRACK...THE CORE OF RITA SHOULD REACH THE UPPER TEXAS/SOUTHWEST\r\nLOUISIANA COAST SATURDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FOREAST TO COLLAPSE AND A WEAKENED RITA COULD\r\nMEANDER FOR A FEW DAYS OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS\r\nPRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 28.2N  92.6W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 29.2N  93.7W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 30.8N  94.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z\r\nINDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD\r\nSTILL BEEN 120-125 KT. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL\r\nLOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT\r\nA WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE\r\nCOASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.  THE EYEWALL REMAINS\r\nINTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH\r\nA RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE\r\nAND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING.  VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT.  RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nLAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK IN THE SYSTEM SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nRITA IS APPROACHING THE COAST ALONG A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY HEADING OF 325\r\nDEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS... JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  ASIDE FROM THE COMMONLY OBSERVED\r\nWOBBLES... THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL... FOLLOWED\r\nBY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  BEYOND THEN... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OF A\r\nSTALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... AS RITA\r\nWILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO ITS EAST\r\nAND WEST.  THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS\r\nWELL INLAND AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 29.1N  93.2W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 30.1N  94.0W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.4N  94.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 32.8N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 33.5N  94.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADARS INDICATE THAT RITA MADE\r\nLANDFALL JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS ABOUT 0730Z WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\nNEAR 105 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB.  SINCE LANDFALL...THE\r\nCONVECTION IN THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL HAS BECOME QUITE\r\nINTENSE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER\r\nLAND.  OVERALLL...RITA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...\r\nBECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 18-24 HR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN\r\n36 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE\r\nBEFORE 120 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS LONG AFTER THE WINDS\r\nHAVE SUBSIDED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR\r\nWITH SOME DECELERATION...THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME OF THE MODELS CALLING FOR A LOOP\r\nAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEST OF RITA...SOME CALLING FOR SLOW\r\nMOTION...AND THE GFS CALLING FOR A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nGIVEN THE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CALL FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 29.9N  93.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 30.9N  94.3W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 32.3N  94.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 33.0N  94.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 33.5N  93.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 33.5N  93.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  93.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 33.5N  93.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rita","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nRITA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. DOPPLER\r\nRADAR INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 80 TO 90 KNOTS AT ABOUT 5000\r\nFEET. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE\r\nBUT MUCH HIGHER GUSTS. NOW THAT THE CORE OF RITA IS WELL INLAND\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS INDICATED BY DECAY SHIPS MODEL. \r\n\r\nRITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT SO ONLY A SMALL EASTWARD\r\nDRIFT IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 24 HOURS. RITA SHOULD PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAIN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 31.0N  94.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 32.5N  94.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 34.0N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 34.5N  92.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 34.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 34.5N  90.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 34.5N  90.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 34.5N  90.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rita","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nRITA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR BUT WIND GUSTS ARE\r\nPROBABLY HIGHER.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND RITA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nRITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME VERY LIGHT SO ONLY A SMALL EASTWARD\r\nDRIFT IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND 24 HOURS. RITA SHOULD PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAIN ALONG ITS PATH.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE\r\nCOAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 32.1N  94.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 33.5N  93.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 35.0N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 35.0N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 35.0N  90.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rita","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VELOCITY DATA FROM THE WSR-88D RADAR IN\r\nSHREVEPORT LOUISIANA INDICATE THAT RITA IS NO LONGER PRODUCING ANY\r\nSUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS... BUT THERE ARE A FEW\r\nOBSERVATIONS THAT SUPPORT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE\r\nRADAR IMAGERY STILL DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN MAINLY\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS CERTAINLY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... EVEN THOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nA LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND PERHAPS MERGE WITH A FRONT IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nSINCE ALL COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AND\r\nRITA IS NOW BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... FUTURE PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER...HPC...BEGINNING AT 4 PM CDT SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 33.0N  93.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 34.2N  93.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 35.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 36.3N  89.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 37.0N  87.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005\r\n \r\nMETSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS DEPICTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY A CLOSED\r\nAND FAIRLY TIGHT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  MORE RECENTLY...\r\nSOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... THE 19TH OF THE ATLANTIC\r\nSEASON.  DVORAK T NUMBERS AT 18Z WERE 1.5 FROM SAB AND 2.0 FROM\r\nTAFB... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY... ALTHOUGH THE\r\nMOTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO SUGGESTS A WESTWARD DRIFT...\r\nPERHAPS 275/2.  THE LACK OF STEERING RESULTS FROM PRESENCE OF A\r\nDEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION... RATHER THAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING THAT IS MORE\r\nOFTEN IN PLACE ALONG ABOUT 25N AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.  A CONTINUED\r\nSLOW MOTION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS... UNTIL THE LOW TO THE NORTH DEPARTS NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THIS SHOULD BE\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTH... WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... AS\r\nHEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO ITS WEST AND RISE TO ITS EAST... AS\r\nA MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nAND HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE CAPE VERDES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND WEST OF THE NOGAPS AND GFDL\r\nBUT FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH SEEMS SLOWED BY A SEEMINGLY SPURIOUS\r\nLOW TO ITS EAST.  NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST A MOTION NORTH OF 30N\r\nWITHIN FIVE DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...\r\nAND THE SSTS EXCEED 28C.  SOME STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST\r\nIN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHEN... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE SINCE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DUE\r\nTO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLIES.  THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWHICH ANTICIPATES CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO 60 KT BY 120 HOURS...\r\nBUT THAT IS ALONG THE MUCH MORE SOUTHERLY BAMM TRACK... AND IT IS\r\nALSO MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BROWN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 11.8N  32.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 12.0N  33.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 12.2N  33.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 13.1N  34.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 14.7N  35.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.0N  36.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N  37.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 26.0N  37.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2005\r\n \r\nAN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 2227Z INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN WAS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF STRONG AND\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION.  SHORTWAVE IMAGERY FROM METEOSAT-8 SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME SUGGESTS THIS IS STILL THE CASE...BUT IT CANNOT BE\r\nDETERMINED JUST HOW FAR THE CENTER IS FROM THE CONVECTION AT THE\r\nMOMENT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 310/2.  OTHER THAN THAT...\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD DIRECTION FOR 72-96 HR.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD\r\nBETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE MORE EASTWARD NOGAPS.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST THROUGH 96 HR IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  AFTER 96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE MAY FORM NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD\r\nSTEER IT MORE WESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS\r\nYET...BUT WILL SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHERLY OR\r\nNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS NOT STOPPING THE\r\nCONVECTION THUS FAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DECREASING SHEAR IN\r\nABOUT 12 HR AND MAINTAINS THIS THROUGH ABOUT 60 HR.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48-72 HR.  THIS IS A BIT LESS THAN\r\nEITHER THE SHIPS OR GFDL ARE FORECASTING.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nARE FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW...AND IF THE DEPRESSION GETS\r\nTOO CLOSE TO THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN SHIPS IS\r\nFORECASTING.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE UNTIL IT IS MORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nSTAY SOUTH OF THE STRONGER SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 12.3N  33.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N  33.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.0N  33.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.2N  34.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 15.8N  35.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N  36.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N  36.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 26.5N  36.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WAS\r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. MOST OF THE`CONVECTION...\r\nALTHOUGH QUITE STRONG...IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN SUCH A\r\nSHEARED PATTERN THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS\r\nA CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IF THE SHEAR\r\nRELAXES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\nTHEREAFTER...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE PREVENTING FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE PRESENT RELOCATION USING THE MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT REFLECT A\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION...IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...AS THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION MOVES WESTWARD...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LOW TO THE\r\nWEST FASTER...CONSEQUENTLY THEY BRING THE DEPRESSION FATHER WEST.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACK\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 13.3N  34.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N  34.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N  35.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 16.0N  35.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 17.5N  36.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 21.6N  37.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 25.0N  37.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  37.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TD-20 TO TD-19\r\n \r\nSURFACE WIND DATA FROM A 01/0822 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE A WELL\r\nDEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EVEN FARTHER NORTH THAN SUSPECTED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB... AND 25 FROM AFWA. HOWEVER... DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE MADE...\r\nAND THE QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SEVERAL UNCONTAMINATED 30-KT WIND\r\nVECTORS IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/06. OTHER THAN THE RELOCATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTH... THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS EXPECTED\r\nTO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARDS... THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. THE WEAKENING STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nLOW... COUPLED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH\r\n... IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED BY\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM\r\nIS STILL OVER 26-28C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 25 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40 KT\r\nBY 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE STRONG SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE\r\nBY 96 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 14.1N  33.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 14.8N  34.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 16.4N  35.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N  35.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  36.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N  37.6W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 25.5N  37.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS ESSENTIALLY\r\nEVAPORATED THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER... THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES ARE\r\nSHOWING A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS\r\nDEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A LARGE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD THAT WILL\r\nLIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO TO SPIN DOWN... SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT... ESPECIALLY SINCE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION MAY BE STARTING TO REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19 IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD... ASSUMING THE\r\nSYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS\r\nTHE FASTEST OF ALL OF THE MODELS AND RECURVES THE CYCLONE QUICKLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL MAKES\r\nTHE SYSTEM A VERTICALLY DEEP 80-KT HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS... DESPITE\r\n40-50 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nMINUS THE GFDL CONTRIBUTION AFTER 72 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS OVER 26-27C SSTS. BY 48 HOURS... UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AT LEAST 25 KT AND TO\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE TO NEAR 40 KT BY 72 HOURS. THE INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CREATE AT LEAST SLOW\r\nWEAKENING... BUT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 14.7N  34.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N  34.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.8N  35.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N  36.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.2N  37.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 24.2N  37.4W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N  37.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N  35.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR THIS EVENING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED BETWEEN\r\nCONVECTIVE CLUSTERS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOW NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT THAT WERE NOT IN\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.  BLENDING THESE DATA PRODUCES AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6.  A LARGE-DEEP LAYER LOW NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...\r\nALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST\r\nBECOME MORE UNCERTAIN.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE WANTS TO TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR EVEN THOUGH THE MODEL MASS FIELDS\r\nINDICATE RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  BASED ON THE RIDGING...\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A MUCH SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD TURN\r\nTHAT THAT CURRENTLY CALLED FOR BY THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE BIG QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE SYSTEM SURVIVE?  ALL THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 20N WHERE\r\nIT IS FORECAST TO BE IN EXCESS OF 40 KT AND THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE BARELY 26C.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR\r\nIN CASE SOME TEMPORARY DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OCCURS OR A STRONG\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST SPINS THE SYSTEM UP.  IT THEN CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM\r\nTO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 120\r\nHR.  IT IS POSSIBLE GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY\r\nNOT STRENGTHEN AT ALL...AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 15.3N  34.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 16.6N  34.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N  35.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N  36.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 22.0N  36.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 25.0N  36.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 27.5N  36.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 29.5N  34.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE EAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER... BUT OVERALL THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN\r\nBOTH DEPTH AND COVERAGE OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT\r\n06Z REMAINED 30 KT... AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL STILL FORECASTS 33 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS... AND THERE\r\nIS STILL THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BRIEFLY REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS... BUT PROBABLY JUST BARELY IF IT HAPPENS AT\r\nALL.  THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ONLY GET STRONGER AND THE SSTS\r\nGRADUALLY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR\r\nGFS AGREES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BUT NOT\r\nVERY QUICKLY DUE TO LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE CLOSER TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 16.0N  34.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 17.2N  35.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 18.9N  36.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  36.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 22.3N  36.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 25.5N  36.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N  34.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N  31.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WELL\r\nTO THE WEST OF DECAYING CONVECTION.  WITH AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR...THERE SEEMS\r\nLITTLE CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RECOVER...AND THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY UNLESS AN UNEXPECTED REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nNOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WITH THE LOW LAYER\r\nFLOW...AT 315/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT\r\nLOW DISSIPATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GFS HAD BEEN ALONE IN\r\nFORECASTING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF A DECAYING SYSTEM AND AT\r\nTHIS POINT APPEARS TO HAVE GOTTEN IT RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED TO FOLLOW THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 17.0N  35.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  38.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE\r\nLARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY FESTERING OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS FINALLY\r\nORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT\r\nCENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE... BUT WIND AND\r\nPRESSURE REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY LOCATION. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS RANGING FROM\r\n23 TO 27 KT OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. TWO SHIPS NEAR THE YUCATAN\r\nCHANNEL AT 01/06Z ALSO REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28-32 KT.\r\nHOWEVER... QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER INDICATE THAT THOSE WINDS WERE LIKELY 3-5 KT HIGH.\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE... AND SO HAS THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD ARRIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/05. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT BEST... BUT THE\r\nSLOWLY BACKING WIND PROFILE AT NOAA BUOY 42056 SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS SOMEWHERE NEARBY. THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nFAIR AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS AS THE BROAD BUT WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST REMAINS INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE 3 BAM MODELS... PLUS THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 4\r\nDAYS IS LAND INTERACTION. AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA IN 18-30 HOURS... INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE RATHER LOOSE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD AID IN THE QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ONCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 36\r\nHOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 29-30C SSTS. WITH A VERY FAVORABLE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS... THIS SYSTEM\r\nCOULD EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES A SECOND\r\nLANDFALL OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. EXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 19.3N  85.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N  86.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.8N  88.8W    25 KT...INLAND YUCATAN\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 21.7N  90.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 22.5N  92.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 23.4N  95.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND NERN MEXICO\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N 101.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND A SMALL SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF WHERE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGEST THE LARGER-SCALE CENTER OF ROTATION IS LOCATED. RECENT\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 42056 ALSO INDICATE VEERING SURFACE\r\nWINDS... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANOTHER SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATION MAY BE\r\nPASSING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE BUOY. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB\r\nSUGGEST THAT A BROADER CIRCULATION CENTER IS EITHER LOCATED OR\r\nFORMING NORTHEAST OF THE VORTEX MESSAGE POSITION. THE ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION IS A COMPROMISE OF ALL THE SMALL SWIRLS AND LEANS MORE\r\nTOWARD THE LARGE-SCALE ROTATION NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. HOWEVER... ANY ONE OF THE SMALLER\r\nCIRCULATIONS COULD BECOME MORE DOMINANT IF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS\r\nNEARBY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 31-KT SUSTAINED\r\nWIND REPORTED EARLIER BY NOAA BUOY 42056.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 255/05.  THE VARIOUS\r\nGLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY\r\nWELL... ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER... THE\r\nGENERAL TREND IN ALL OF THE MODELS IS FOR THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO SLOWLY BUILD\r\nWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MORE WESTWARD AND\r\nSOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION HAS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE\r\nBAM MODELS... AND AS RESULT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL\r\nBE POSSIBLE UNTIL A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS.\r\n \r\nEXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION... ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO\r\nOCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL INCREASES THE INTENSITY TO 86 KT BY 72 HOURS\r\nAND 94 KT BY 96 HOURS DUE TO VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\nTHE 12Z GFDL MODEL LOSES THE CYCLONE BY 24 HOURS... WHICH IS NOT\r\nUNUSUAL FOR SYSTEMS THAT ARE INITIALIZED WITH 25 KT WINDS. THE 18Z\r\nGFDL WILL LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST SINCE IT WAS INITIALIZED WITH 30 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 19.2N  86.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.8N  87.9W    35 KT...INLAND ERN YUCATAN\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 20.4N  89.8W    25 KT...INLAND WRN YUCATAN\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N  91.8W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.4N  93.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.6N  96.2W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 21.0N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND ERN MEXICO\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY REMAINS BROAD THIS EVENING. \r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN A\r\nPOORLY CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE HARD TO FIND IN INFRARED IMAGERY...SO THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/5.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND EVENING RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS LOW/MID/LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION...WHICH IN THE SHORT TERM SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  AFTER 24-36 HR...A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE WESTERN\r\nGULF COAST.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN WESTWARD OR\r\nEVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...THINGS BECOME MORE\r\nUNCERTAIN AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF FORECASTS OF\r\nHOW THE PATTERN AROUND THE DEPRESSION WILL EVOLVE.  SOME MODELS\r\nSTALL THE DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF...WHILE OTHERS MOVE\r\nIT INTO MEXICO.  OTHERS DISSIPATE IT AS A NEW SYSTEM FORMS EAST OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IN THE CARIBBEAN...OR NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nALONG A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF\r\nMOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO... ALBEIT AT A\r\nSLOWER SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE THAT\r\nTHIS WILL HAPPEN IS DECREASING.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR WHILE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS OVER WATER...AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nLIGHT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ON YUCATAN...\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND AND RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE.  EVEN WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHIPS CALLS FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFDL RUN DOES NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE ABOVE 40 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO AFTER\r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 84 HR.  SHOULD THAT LANDFALL NOT OCCUR OR BE\r\nDELAYED...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME\r\nLESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN GULF.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 19.3N  87.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.7N  88.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 20.3N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.8N  92.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N  96.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY ATTAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS JUST OFF\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS IS BASED ON 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 50 KT WITHIN A BAND OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER... WHICH IS\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF WEAK WINDS.  THE FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 40 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE FELL TO ABOUT 1003 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nCENTER IS NOW MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF TULUM... SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT... BUT STAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE\r\nSPENDING ALMOST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER LAND.  CONDITIONS ARE STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE\r\nBY 72 HOURS... IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER ACCOUNTING\r\nFOR INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE SHORT TERM.\r\n\r\nSTAN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT... ALTHOUGH\r\nTHIS IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN SPECIFYING THE\r\nEXACT CENTER OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ONLY A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO A LACK OF MODELS ACTUALLY SHOWING FINAL\r\nLANDFALL ON THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS SOLUTION IS FOLLOWED\r\nFOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS ARE SO DIVERSE.  THERE WOULD APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH RIDGING OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO TO FORCE STAN WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 19.6N  87.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 20.1N  88.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 20.7N  90.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N  92.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N  94.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 20.5N  96.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 20.0N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nSHIP REPORTS FROM EIJV AND ZCAM4 JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF\r\nTHE YUCATAN...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS...INDICATE THAT EVEN\r\nTHOUGH STAN IS MOVING INLAND IT IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS IN BANDS STILL OFFSHORE.  WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED\r\nON THESE DATA.  ALTHOUGH STAN COULD MAINTAIN THESE WINDS DURING ITS\r\nPASSAGE OVER LAND...OFFSHORE FLOW MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT THESE\r\nWINDS WOULD BE FELT ALONG THE NORTH AND WEST COASTS OF THE YUCATAN. \r\nFOR THIS REASON THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT BEING UPGRADED TO A\r\nWARNING AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE BUT BELIEVED TO BE 290/6.  AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS\r\nOUT...RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nMAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST...HOWEVER...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD\r\nSLOW...BOTH BECAUSE IT WOULD BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND BECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH\r\nA DISTUBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nONCE IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE A GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN...WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER\r\nANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 19.8N  88.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N  89.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.8N  91.4W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.7N  95.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N  97.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS OUT...\r\nRIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nMAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST...\r\nTHERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD SLOW AS STAN NEARS THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nALSO SUGGESTS THAT WITH THIS SLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCOULD DECOUPLE FROM THE CIRCULATION ALOFT NEAR LANDFALL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nCLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL SHIP REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TO BE SAFE I WILL PRESUME THAT SUCH\r\nWINDS STILL EXIST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER...WHERE THEY\r\nARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN...HENCE THE LOWERING OF THE WARNINGS. ONCE\r\nIN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...\r\nWITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 20.7N  89.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 21.1N  90.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 21.3N  93.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.1N  94.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N  98.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Stan","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n\r\nSTAN HAS JUST ABOUT COMPLETED ITS TRANSIT OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. \r\nBASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT...FOR NOW...\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. \r\nNONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM RETAINS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WITH SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.  A PROMINENT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYLONE IS SITUATED OVER STAN...AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONCE THE\r\nCENTER MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE SURFACE\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30 DEG C...STRENGTHENING IS HIGHLY\r\nLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/9.  THE FLOW SOUTH OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHIS WOULD TAKE THE CENTER NEAR OR ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO IN\r\n2-3 DAYS.  THERE IS...HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL COMPLICATION TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nWILL DIG INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...AND INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL GULF WITHIN ROUGHLY 72\r\nHOURS.  THIS DEVELOPMENT COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOON ENOUGH TO\r\nINFLUENCE STAN'S TRACK...AND DELAY ITS LANDFALL.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ALSO TAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWER OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST GULF THAN THE EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  HOPEFULLY...AN ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THIS FORECAST WILL\r\nNOT BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 20.8N  90.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 21.0N  91.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  93.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.7N  94.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.4N  95.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  97.0W    55 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  98.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF STAN EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA AT ABOUT 0430Z.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO THE CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 1003 MB... THEN 1002 MB ON A MORE RECENT PENETRATION.  MAXIMUM\r\n850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 43 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER... IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION EMANATING OFFSHORE FROM THE\r\nNORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA.  THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE\r\nDEEP ENOUGH TO MIX THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE USING\r\nTHE 80 PERCENT REDUCTION...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN BURSTING NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD SOON BE\r\nOCCURRING THERE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... MAKING\r\nSTAN A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NOW WESTWARD... 270/9.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS\r\nTO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STAN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT BEND SOUTH\r\nOF WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO TAKE STAN ALL THE WAY\r\nACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME\r\nCOMPLICATING FACTORS... INCLUDING INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS\r\nSTAN APPROACHES THE COAST... A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF\r\nOF TEHUANTEPEC... AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nSTAN IS NOW OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO... AND IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED\r\nIN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL\r\nLIKELY LEAD TO STRENGTHENING.  AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS AND ERODE\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE IN\r\nTIME TO WEAKEN STAN BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL.  ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE DIAGNOSES WEAK SHEAR AND FORECASTS A 65 KT HURRICANE\r\nAPPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 20.5N  91.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  92.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.4N  94.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.2N  95.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  96.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 19.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005\r\n \r\nTHE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR 18Z.  IN THE\r\nMEANTIME...THE HAS BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  A STATION ON CAYOS ARCAS VERY NEAR\r\nTHE PRESUMED CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 997 MB.  BECAUSE\r\nTHE OVERNIGHT AIRCRAFT FOUND VERY LITTLE WIND NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING INCREASED TO 40\r\nKT AT THIS TIME.  IT IS ALSO UNCLEAR JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS\r\nTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ANY EVENT...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH LIGHT SHEAR...\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW...AND WARM WATER.  I ASSUME THE WIND FIELD IS IN THE\r\nPROCESS OF CONTRACTING IN RESPONSE TO THE CHANGES IN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN...AND ONCE THIS OCCURS A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION RATE\r\nCOULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A BIT MORE\r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL IS NOT AS ENTHUSIASTIC...AND THIS COULD\r\nBE DUE TO ISSUES...EITHER REAL OR IMAGINED...WITH TOPOGRAPHY HAVING\r\nA NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE'S STRUCTURE NEAR LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET ALL MAINTAIN ENOUGH\r\nRIDGING IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO TAKE STAN...OR AT\r\nLEAST ITS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...INLAND INTO MEXICO.  MUCH OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SLOWS OR STALLS THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HOWEVER. IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THIS INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS STAN APPROACHES\r\nTHE COAST COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS NOT FORECAST FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD REACH THE COASTLINE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR ISSUING THE HURRICANE WARNING AT\r\nTHIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.4N  92.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.2N  93.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N  94.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 19.8N  95.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N  96.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N  97.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...FROM 700 MB DUE TO AIRSPACE\r\nRESTRICTIONS...WERE ONLY 41 KT...DROPSONDES IN THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 50 KT...WHICH\r\nWILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. STAN HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP COLD\r\nCONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THUS FAR THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN RESTRICTED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nSTILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING...WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL NOW TAKING STAN UP TO 92 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE GFDL\r\nCONTINUES TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WIND FIELDS FROM\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT SOME DECOUPLING OF THE MID\r\nAND LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF\r\nLANDFALL...AND IF THIS OCCURS I WOULD EXPECT SOME LAST MINUTE\r\nWEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER.\r\n \r\nEARLIER IN THE DAY STAN MOVED LITTLE...WITH THE CENTER LAGGING\r\nPERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY TO THE EAST.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SUGGESTS THAT A GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON A\r\nLONGER-TERM AVERAGE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH\r\nOF STAN.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BRACKETED BY THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH TAKE STAN WESTWARD TO A LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...AND THE GFDL...WHICH TAKES STAN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A\r\nLANDFALL IN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS...AND\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 20.0N  92.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 19.7N  93.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 19.4N  94.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 19.2N  95.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 19.1N  95.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N  97.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-10-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2005\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE OF STAN OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE NEXT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR AROUND 0500Z.\r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR/OVER THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER BUT NO WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ARE EVIDENT.\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE QUITE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICAL RAPID INTENSITY\r\nINDEX SHOWS A 49 PER CENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...\r\nDEFINED AS AN INCREASE OF 25 KT OVER 24 HOURS.  MY OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS PROBABLY A CONSERVATIVE ONE.  THE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION BEYOND 36 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE DEGREE OF\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nWITHOUT THE AIRCRAFT...THE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO TEXAS IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR\r\nANOTHER 2 DAYS OR SO.  THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER STAN ACROSS THE\r\nGULF COAST OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.\r\nHOWEVER A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nGULF COULD COMPLICATE THE STEERING PATTERN.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT STAN COULD BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED WHEN IT REACHES THE\r\nCOAST...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL PART OF THE CIRCULATION DRAGGED\r\nEASTWARD INTO THE ABOVEMENTIONED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WHILE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK MODELS\r\nHAVE BECOME DIVERGENT AND SOME...E.G. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN...AND NOGAPS...DO NOT A LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 4 DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS INCREASING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 19.9N  93.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.7N  94.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 19.4N  94.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.1N  95.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N  96.0W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-10-04 06:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR STAN.  THE TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER\r\nOF STAN TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... MORE QUICKLY THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE STAN WILL REACH THE\r\nCOAST EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nALSO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... REQUIRING AN EXTENSION OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE WARNING EASTWARD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE RAPIDLY FALLING CENTRAL PRESSURE. \r\nTHE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN CHANGED FOR POINTS OFFSHORE OR\r\nNEAR THE COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0600Z 19.3N  94.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 19.0N  94.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.9N  94.9W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 18.7N  95.2W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Stan","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-10-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005\r\n \r\nMANY UNEXPECTED CHANGES HAVE OCCURRED WITH STAN OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS... AND THE CENTER FIXES INDICATE STAN HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nPERSISTENTLY SOUTHWESTWARD OR 235/10.  THIS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ANY\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WERE FORECASTING... AND THERE DOES NOT NOW\r\nAPPEAR TO BE ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THIS MOTION WILL NOT CONTINUE. \r\nUNLESS STAN SLOWS DOWN OR CHANGES DIRECTION VERY SOON... IT WILL\r\nCROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CENTER TO\r\nBE ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS... AND TO CONTINUE INLAND INTO THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN LESS\r\nTHAN 36 HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH STAN WILL PROBABLY BE MOVING FASTER\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED ONCE IT IS INLAND... IT COULD STILL\r\nPRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF\r\nCOMPLEX TERRAIN.\r\n\r\nHOW STRONG STAN HAS BECOME THIS MORNING IS A BIT SPECULATIVE... BUT\r\nMOST OF THE AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT\r\nAND MAKING STAN A HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN FALLING\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE NIGHT... AND AS I TYPE WAS JUST MEASURED AT 979 MB.\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING IN RESPONSE AND\r\nARE VERY CLOSE TO SUPPORTING 65 KT SURFACE WINDS. THE AIRCRAFT\r\nRADAR DEPICTS WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDING THAT ALMOST CLASSIFIES AS\r\nAN EYEWALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE... WITH AN EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION DURING\r\nTHE NIGHT AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -90C. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 65 KT. WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nSTAN INLAND AT 12 HOURS WITH A 65 KT INTENSITY... IT COULD BE\r\nSTRONGER AT LANDFALL. PREPARATIONS MUST BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION\r\nWITHIN THE WARNING AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 18.8N  94.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 18.4N  95.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.2N  96.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Stan","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-10-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE PRECISE CENTER POSTITION IS UNCERTAIN...BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 10Z...STAN SHOULD BE JUST\r\nINLAND OF THE COASTLINE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER\r\nCOULD BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER INLAND...BUT SINCE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS POSSIBLE IN RESPONSE TO THE TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO...I PREFER TO STAY WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION FOR THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER. CONTINUITY OF THIS TRACK...WITH A REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SURFACE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nTHE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA NEAR 10Z INDICATED AN INTENSITY OF 70\r\nKT.  WHILE THERE WAS A BURST OF VERY COLD CONVECTION SINCE\r\nTHEN...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL ON THEIR LAST\r\nPAST.  BALANCING THESE FACTORS LEADS ME TO HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 70\r\nKT.  A RAPID DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER\r\nMOVES INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\nSTAN POSES A VERY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT...AND LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES ARE VERY LIKELY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 18.6N  95.1W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N  95.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N  96.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Stan","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-10-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005\r\n \r\nSTAN CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND AND WEAKEN.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 230/5...AND THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST\r\nUNTIL THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nMOUNTAIN RANGE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WHERE SOME REGENERATION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 17.8N  95.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.3N  96.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Stan","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-10-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT\r\nSTAN HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN\r\nDRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CENTER IS ALREADY WELL INLAND OVER THE\r\nSTATE OF OAXACA MEXICO. SOME MODELS BRING STAN TO THE PACIFIC WHERE\r\nREGENERATION IS POSSIBLE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SOME OTHER MODELS\r\nBRING A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST ADVISORY BUT\r\nTHIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM WHICH IS STILL PRODUCING 25 TO 30-KNOT WINDS\r\nOVER WATER ON THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND ON THE PACIFIC SIDE.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 17.3N  96.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N  97.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N  97.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Stan","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-10-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF STAN HAS BECOME VERY\r\nILL-DEFINED.  THEREFORE... THE SYSTEM IS LOSING CHARACTERISTICS AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING OVER VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN... AND THE\r\nREMNANT SURFACE LOW WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER EXIST LATER TODAY. \r\nHOWEVER... THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMAINING VORTICITY IN\r\nTHE LOW TO MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO REGENERATION JUST OFF THE\r\nPACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHIS... AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM\r\nTHIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD BACK TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH STAN IS DISSIPATING AND HAS LOST ALL CORE CONVECTION...\r\nSOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PERSISTS AROUND ITS PERIPHERY. \r\nESPECIALLY SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...  THE MAIN\r\nTHREAT FROM STAN CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL... WITH\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 16.9N  97.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.7N  97.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tammy","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-05 11:30:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TAMMY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n730 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITHIN\r\nTHE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND OVER\r\nNORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IS\r\nSUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WSR-88D RADAR\r\nIMAGERY BEGAN TO DEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER ABOUT 06Z THIS\r\nMORNING... WHICH BECAME WELL-DEFINED BY 08Z ABOUT 40 MILES EAST OF\r\nMELBOURNE FLORIDA.  SURFACE WIND DIRECTION OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE\r\nEAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION ON RADAR... ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER ARE WEAK.  ALL OF THE STRONGER WINDS AND CONVECTION\r\nOCCUPY THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM... MOST OF IT WELL\r\nREMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS OF 30 KT HAVE\r\nBEEN COMMON THIS MORNING... BUT MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF THE REGIONS OF\r\nSTRONGEST RADAR ECHOES... SO IT SEEMS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN AREAS OF DEEPEST CONVECTION. \r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM TAMMY IS MOVING FAIRLY RAPIDLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 335/14 BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON RADAR FIXES.  THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY THE\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW OVER THE GULF TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT\r\nWHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MOVES OFFSHORE. \r\nTHEREFORE... ONLY A SUBTLE BEND TO THE WEST IN THE HEADING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  DUE TO THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF THE CENTER OF TAMMY\r\nTO THE COASTLINE... IT IS DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY THE LANDFALL TIME OR\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER... IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE LARGE AREA OF WINDS AND CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER... WHICH NECESSITATES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A\r\nLONG STRETCH OF COASTLINE.  SINCE TAMMY IS UNDER MODERATE SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR... ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY... AND THE\r\nASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WILL PROBABLY PERSIST.\r\n\r\nTAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1130Z 28.4N  80.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 29.4N  81.1W    40 KT...NEAR COASTLINE\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 30.9N  82.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.9N  83.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.8N  84.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tammy","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2005\r\n \r\nAT 13Z THE CENTER OF TAMMY PASSED OVER NOAA BUOY 41009...WHICH\r\nREPORTED A PRESSURE JUST UNDER 1004 MB.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY\r\nAND NWS RADAR INDICATE THAT TAMMY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT\r\n12 KT.  THIS RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK MAY BE A RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE ASYMMETRIC DISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION...WHICH REMAINS TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  TAMMY IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THIS SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE CENTER WILL JUMP OR\r\nREFORM TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTION.  THE 00Z\r\nCANADIAN MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON TAMMY\r\nOVERNIGHT...AND I AM GIVING THIS MODEL MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT\r\nOF WEIGHT THIS MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BECAUSE TAMMY IS MOVING\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA COAST...AND BECAUSE MOST OF THE\r\nWEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH TAMMY IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...THE\r\nPRECISE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE LANDFALL OF THE CENTER IS OF\r\nRELATIVELY LITTLE IMPORTANCE.\r\n\r\nDOPPLER RADAR IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WINDS ALOFT...ABOUT\r\n35 KT.  BASED ON EARLIER SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS THE INTENSITY IS\r\nPRESUMED TO STILL BE NEAR 35 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE STORM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE JUST\r\nA LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR TO\r\nPREVENT RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nTAMMY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 28.9N  80.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 30.2N  81.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.4N  82.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.3N  83.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tammy","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TAMMY FOUND PEAK FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT ABOUT 150 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THESE\r\nDATA SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT.  THE CREW MADE VISUAL\r\nESTIMATES OF 50 TO 55 KT IN A FEW SPOTS SO THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE\r\nCOULD BE A SHADE LOW.  SINCE THE CENTER IS ONLY A FEW HOURS FROM\r\nLANDFALL...LITTLE ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY. \r\nHOWEVER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS BEING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER THE\r\nCENTER MOVES INLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER MAKE A JAB AT THE COASTLINE LATE THIS MORNING BUT THEN\r\nRETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12.\r\nTAMMY REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTAMMY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 30.1N  81.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 31.4N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.2N  83.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tammy","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2005\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTAMMY MOVED INLAND NEAR MAYPORT FLORIDA ABOUT 23Z AND SINCE\r\nTHEN...THE\r\nCENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE CENTER MAINLY OVER WATER. \r\n\r\nTAMMY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 30.8N  82.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 33.0N  85.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tammy","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TAMMY CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA.  HOWEVER... RADAR IMAGERY\r\nDEPICTS RAINBANDS WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER ARE\r\nSTILL COMING ONSHORE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF GEORGIA AND\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA.  VARIOUS SHIPS AND BUOYS CONTINUE TO REPORT\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS AT OR NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WITHIN THESE\r\nBANDS... SO TAMMY REMAINS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM... AND A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA AND\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA COASTS.\r\n \r\nTAMMY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY... AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO AN\r\nAPPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 31.6N  83.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 32.4N  84.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Tammy","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TAMMY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2005\r\n \r\nSUSTAINED WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE...AND THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED.  ANY REMAINING\r\nGALE FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE HAVE LITTLE OR NO CONNECTION TO TAMMY'S\r\nCIRCULATION...AND TAMMY IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING\r\nELONGATED ALONG A WSW-ENE AXIS...AND DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THAT OCCURS.  A PORTION OF\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY COULD TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENTER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE\r\nUNFAVORABLE FOR REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nFUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TAMMY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 31.7N  85.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 31.5N  87.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW\r\nPRESSIRE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...\r\nSUBTROPICAL INSTEAD OF TROPICAL DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH A\r\nLARGE-MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE...\r\nWITH AN ELONGATED OUTER BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25-30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35-40 KT\r\nFROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/13...UNCERTAIN\r\nBECAUSE WHILE THE OVERNIGHT MOTION WAS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THE LAST\r\nFEW IMAGES SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nTHE SOUTH.  AFTER 48 HR OR SO...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE.  IF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A SECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH\r\nCOULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE\r\nNEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR TROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS SUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST AFTER 48 HR WILL CALL FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A\r\nDECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGHING WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO SOME PULSES OF\r\nSHEAR DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSHEAR AFTER THREE DAYS.  THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL\r\nLOSE THE SYSTEM IN 36-72 HR.  ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH\r\nA PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT.  IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE\r\nCORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND LOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIS CORRECT ABOUT THE SHEAR...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD FULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 28.1N  59.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 29.2N  60.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 30.4N  63.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 31.2N  66.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 32.3N  68.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 34.0N  71.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 36.0N  72.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 37.0N  72.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-08 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO HAS\r\nDECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...WITH THE OUTER BAND SEEN\r\nEARLIER DISSIPATING AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING FULLY EXPOSED\r\nFOR A TIME.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A NEW BURST HAS\r\nFORMED JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB...SUBTROPICAL 25-30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...AND TROPICAL 25 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nOVERALL ORGANIZATION BEING SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6 HR AGO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/17.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. BEFORE\r\n36 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nSOME DECELERATION BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nA LARGE MID/ UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH.  AFTER 36-48 HR...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST BECOMES LOW CONFIDENCE AS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD\r\nAPPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE.  IF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE RIGHT...A\r\nSECOND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL FORM SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD STEER THE SYSTEM MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE NEW LOW IS SLOWER TO FORM OR\r\nTROUGHING CONTINUES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH.  THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 48 HR CONTINUES TO CALL\r\nFOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED ON THE\r\nPREMISE THAT THE U. S. MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE THE DOMINANT\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL UNDERGO PULSES OF SHEAR DURING THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS...AND THEN UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AFTER THREE\r\nDAYS.  THE GFDL AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL LOSE THE SYSTEM IN\r\n36-72 HR.  ALL OF THIS...COMBINED WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF\r\n26C-27C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nSTRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING A LITTLE ABOVE THAT OF THE SHIPS MODEL... WITH A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 50 KT IN 48 KT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA FASTER WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE CORRECT ON THE FORMATION OF THE SECOND\r\nLOW...OR IF THE SHIPS MODEL IS RIGHT ABOUT THE SHEAR... THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER.  THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nFULLY TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 29.1N  60.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 30.1N  62.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 31.1N  65.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 31.9N  67.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 33.0N  69.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 34.5N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 36.0N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 37.5N  72.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-09 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2005\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL NOT TROPICAL...AND LAST ADVISORY...\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NO\r\nLONGER PRODUCING ANY DEEP CONVECTION... AND WHAT CONVECTION THERE\r\nHAD BEEN EARLIER THIS EVENING WAS NOT AT ALL ORGANIZED ABOUT THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF EITHER A\r\nSUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE...  AND SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY. THE DEMISE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO\r\nABATE ANY TIME SOON... SO REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY... BUT THE\r\nREMANT LOW WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE SEEMINGLY REMOTE POSSIBILITY\r\nOF DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW REMNANT\r\nLOW AND ANTICIPATES A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION... IN THE\r\nLOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nOVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC... FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS\r\nUNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 29.2N  62.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 29.8N  65.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 30.6N  67.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 31.3N  69.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 31.8N  71.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 32.5N  73.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vince","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OF NON-TROPICAL ORIGIN THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC... IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND\r\nTHE CANARY ISLANDS... HAS BEEN ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO.  WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM IS NOW A\r\nTROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL STORM IS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBJECTIVE\r\nDETERMINATION.  EVEN THOUGH THIS SYSTEM IS SITUATED OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS BENEATH A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... IT NOW HAS SEVERAL CHARACTERISTICS THAT\r\nWARRANT CLASSIFICATION AS TROPICAL STORM VINCE.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nISOLATED AND IS QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS... PERHAPS 20-25 N MI... AND WHILE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nLARGER ENVELOPE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AT THE SURFACE... THE INNER CORE\r\nOF CONVECTION ONLY HAS A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI.  UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE ANIMATIONS... BUT A\r\n07Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE.  CYCLONE\r\nPHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY INDICATE THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS SYMMETRIC AND NOT VERY FAR ON THE COLD CORE SIDE OF THE\r\nSPECTRUM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A 0640Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS AND BY SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB OF 3.0 BASED ON THE HEBERT-POTEAT TECHNIQUE.  SINCE SUBTROPICAL\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE ON THIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST DAY OR\r\nSO... VINCE COULD EASILY BE DEEMED TO HAVE BECOME A SUBTROPICAL\r\nSTORM YESTERDAY.  VINCE HAS BEEN CUT OFF FROM THE MIDLATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS... BUT NOW SEEMS TO BE\r\nMOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED ALONG THIS SAME HEADING IS EXPECTED UNTIL VINCE MERGES WITH A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 34.0N  19.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 34.7N  18.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 36.3N  16.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 39.1N  13.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vince","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005\r\n \r\nIF IT LOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE... IT PROBABLY IS... DESPITE ITS\r\nENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION.  MOST AVAILABLE DATA SUGGESTS\r\nVINCE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING TODAY.  IN FACT... THE CIRA INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE BASED ON THE EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 07Z WAS 50 KT AND\r\n995 MB... SO VINCE WAS PROBABLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING\r\nTHAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MORE RECENTLY... METSAT-8\r\nIMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH ABOUT\r\n20 N MI DIAMETER HAS CONTRACTED TO 15 N MI AS A BONA FIDE EYE.  SOME\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT IS NOW DISCERNIBLE AROUND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAIN A BIT WARMER THAN\r\nIN MOST HURRICANES.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS RANGE\r\nFROM 3.5 TO 4.5... WITH THE HIGHER END OF THIS RANGE BASED ON AN\r\nEYE PATTERN.  THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KT.  IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE SURFACE WINDS ARE AS\r\nSTRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST...\r\nESPECIALLY SINCE THE CONVECTION MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER THE\r\n23-24C SSTS... BUT WE HAVE NO DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY THE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nVINCE IS STILL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BUT NOT VERY FAST... ABOUT\r\n045/5... SO IT COULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL HOURS\r\nWHILE ITS OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHANGES LITTLE. VINCE\r\nIS THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER\r\nWATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR RAMPS UP. A COLD FRONT IS SEVERAL\r\nHUNDRED N MI NORTHWEST OF VINCE... AND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ITS\r\nEASTWARD MARCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC... IT SHOULD PULL VINCE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT A GRADUALLY INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SUGGEST THAT VINCE\r\nWILL BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... BUT IT COULD\r\nTAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF VINCE TO\r\nCOMPLETELY LOSE ITS INDENTITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 34.2N  18.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 35.4N  17.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 37.6N  14.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 40.5N  11.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vince","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2005\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF VINCE IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED...AND THE AMOUNT OF\r\nCOLD-TOPPED CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS DECREASED. \r\nMOREOVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INDICATIVE OF INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AS THE DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ERODED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALL OF THIS IS SUGGESTING THAT A WEAKENING\r\nTREND IS IMMINENT...IF IT IS NOT ALREADY UNDERWAY.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KT...ALTHOUGH AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NEVER\r\nQUITE SUPPORTED HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IN 24-36 HOURS...VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 35 KT AND SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 20 DEG C.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING...WITH VINCE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nAS IT NEARS THE IBERIAN PENINSULA.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nCOLD FRONT BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...055/6...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nHEADING.  A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...AND CAUSE VINCE\r\nTO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO NOGAPS AND THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE GFS AND GFDL ARE EVEN FARTHER TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE NEW NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 34.5N  17.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 35.8N  15.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 38.0N  12.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 40.0N   8.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vince","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005\r\n \r\nVINCE HAS BECOME RAPIDLY LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AS A BLAST OF\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS OVERTAKEN THE CYCLONE.  CONVECTION IS BEING\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND THE EYE HAS DISINTEGRATED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH VINCE OVER 23C WATERS AND\r\nTHE SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...A CONTINUED RAPID DECLINE IS\r\nEXPECTED.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW VINCE BECOMING\r\nABSORBED OR DISSIPATING WITHIN 24 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nCOLD FRONT...BUT VINCE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE\r\nTHEN.  \r\n\r\nVINCE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NOW 070/10.  AS THE CONVECTION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUE\r\nTO DECOUPLE...A SLIGHT TURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFDN\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 34.8N  16.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 36.4N  14.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vince","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED AS NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR HAS BLOWN NEARLY ALL OF THE CONVECTION OFF TO THE EAST. SOME\r\nNEW CONVECTION HAS RESUMED ON THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE CENTER... BUT VINCE IS CLEARLY ON A FAST DECLINE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... MORE IN LINE WITH THE DVORAK DATA\r\nT NUMBERS THAN THE MUCH HIGHER CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES... DUE\r\nTO THE GREATLY DIMINISHED CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION TO THE SHEAR...\r\nVINCE IS OVER SSTS NEAR 22C... SO IT WILL LIKELY DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ROUGHLY 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nVINCE IS MOVING QUICKLY ON A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE EAST... 080\r\nDEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT... WHICH IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED A\r\nLITTLE MORE NORTHWARD BY THE APPROACHING FRONT UNTIL THE EVENTUAL\r\nREMNANT LOW DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED BY THE FRONT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 34.9N  14.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 36.4N  11.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vince","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005\r\n \r\nTHE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT BEGAN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER AT ABOUT THE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DID\r\nNOT LAST LONG... AND THE CONVECTION IS JUST ABOUT GONE.  SSTS NEAR\r\n22C AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A STEADY\r\nDECLINE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... WHICH LEANS\r\nWEAKER THAN A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...\r\n2.5/3.0... DUE TO THE NEARLY COMPLETE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nEVEN WITHOUT THE CONVECTION... THE CENTRAL PRESSURE MIGHT STILL BE\r\nJUST LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 35 KT.  VINCE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER BUOY\r\n44743... OPERATED BY THE EUROPEAN GROUP ON OCEAN STATIONS... WHICH\r\nMEASURED A PRESSURE NEAR 997 MB AT 14Z... WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER\r\nTHAN HAD BEEN ESTIMATED AT THE TIME.  HOWEVER... VINCE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHORTLY AND NOT LONG AFTER THAT\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nVINCE IS RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE HEADING\r\nAND SPEED ARE EXPECTED PRIOR TO THE LANDFALL OF THE REMNANT LOW. \r\nIT APPEARS MORE LIKELY NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE OVER\r\nLAND BEFORE THE FRONT CAN ABSORB IT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 35.9N  11.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 37.5N   8.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vince","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-10-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 10 2005\r\n \r\nWELL... THE LONG AND STRANGE 2005 HURRICANE SEASON CONTINUES AS\r\nTROPICAL STORM VINCE BEARS DOWN ON THE SOUTHERN IBERIAN PENINSULA\r\nAND NORTHWESTERN MOROCCO. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN\r\nCONSIDERABLY AND WERE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT AT 00Z FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES. HOWEVER... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH TOPS\r\nTO -50C HAS REDEVELOPED SINCE THEN ABOUT 50 NMI NORTHEAST THROUGH\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALSO... A LATE ARRIVING 10/2100Z\r\nOBSERVATION FROM SHIP V2ON3 LOCATED ABOUT 90 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER INDICATED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 41 KT. QUALITY-CONTROL CHECKS\r\nBY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATE THE WIND AND PRESSURE DATA\r\nWERE VIABLE... SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IT\r\nWAS 18Z SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME. THE\r\n34-KT AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON THE REPORT FROM\r\nSHIP V20N3 AND OTHER NEARBY SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/20. VINCE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VINCE TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nTO NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN\r\nPORTUGAL AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN SPAIN BETWEEN 06-12Z. AFTER\r\nMOVING INLAND... VINCE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER INTERIOR SPAIN. HOWEVER... WINDS MAY STILL BE\r\nNEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE IN 12-HOURS IN THE STRAIT OF GILBRATAR\r\nDUE TO THE STRONG FUNNELING OF THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE... WHICH IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THAT AREA WITH\r\nEASTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS... EVEN IF VINCE IS AN\r\nEXTREMELY RARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS PART OF THE WORLD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 36.4N   9.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 37.9N   6.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER SPAIN\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Vince","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-10-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION VINCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 11 2005\r\n \r\nVINCE'S DATA T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z WERE NON-EXISTENT...\r\nWITH JUST A VERY SMALL AREA OF COLD CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  NEITHER OF TWO SCATTEROMETER PASSES...ONE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AT 18Z AND ONE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AT\r\n00Z...SHOWED ANY WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND INDEED THE\r\nSECOND PASS CALLS INTO QUESTION THE EARLIER 40 KT SHIP REPORT.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 06Z SHOWED SOME RAIN-FLAGGED 35-40 KT VECTORS...\r\nBUT CLOUD MOTIONS AND COASTAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nQUIKSCAT VECTORS ARE CONTAMINATED.  VINCE IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY.  WITH NO DATA T\r\nNUMBERS...CONTINUING VINCE'S STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY\r\nLONGER IS UNWARRANTED.   AS THE SHORT HAPPY LIFE OF VINCE IS NOW\r\nOVER...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE REMNANTS OF VINCE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON A TRACK NEAR 065/20 UNTIL DISSPATION OR\r\nABSORPTION DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE EVER MAKING LANDFALL\r\nON THE IBERIAN PENINSULA.  BASED ON SURFACE REPORTS FROM FARO\r\nPORTUGAL...THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COAST OF\r\nPORTUGAL...BEFORE BECOMING THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL IN SPAIN.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 37.2N   7.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1...CORRECTION\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED BIN NUMBER...BIN 4 INSTEAD OF 3...\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD\r\nBE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY.\r\nTHIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED\r\nA TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO\r\nFAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN...AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. BOTH SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL MAKES THIS CYCLONE A VERY\r\nINTENSE HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA AND\r\nTHE CAYMAN ISLANDS. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...AND MORE ALONG THE\r\nLINE OF THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS. A HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BLOCKING ANY NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION AND IS KEEPING VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHEREFORE...A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS. BY THEN...A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE COULD DEVELOP OVER FLORIDA\r\nAND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...THE\r\nUK...THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS MODELS. THE GFS DOES NOT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DEVELOP THE CYCLONE AND DOES NOT CARRY THE SYSTEM\r\nMORE THAN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...BOTH GENESIS AND INTENSIFICATION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\nALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 17.6N  78.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N  79.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  80.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N  80.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N  81.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N  82.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N  82.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  83.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES AND DOES NOT YET HAVE\r\nVERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT OUTER\r\nBANDING FEATURES SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING.  THE CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION ENVELOPE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED... AS IS UPPER LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.  A 23Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SOME 30-35 KT\r\nVECTORS THAT ARE PROBABLY RAIN CONTAMINATED... SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AT ABOUT 225/3. THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM THE\r\nDEPRESSION BEING STUCK BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\nTHIS RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nMIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE\r\nFLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER\r\nINFLUENCE FOR NOW... AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE GULF\r\nRIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE MODELS SHOW THE GULF RIDGE MIGRATING WESTWARD... LEAVING A\r\nGROWING WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALLOWING THE\r\nWESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BEGIN PUSHING THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. SINCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO OCCUR SO GRADUALLY... NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE CANADIAN... FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LEAVE THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO\r\nADJUST FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... THEN BACK ON TRACK THEREAFTER...\r\nAND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.\r\n \r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING. EVEN THOUGH THE FORWARD MOTION WILL BE SLOW... THE\r\nLARGE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPLY FUEL FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BENEATH A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE COUPLED GFDL SYSTEM FORECASTS A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO GREATER\r\nTHAN 90 KT IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS... WHILE SHIPS SHOWS STEADY BUT\r\nMORE CONSERVATIVE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nBETWEEN AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 17.0N  79.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 16.8N  79.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.6N  80.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.6N  80.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 16.8N  80.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N  81.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N  82.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  83.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY GET BETTER ORGANZIED... WITH\r\nEMPHASIS ON THE WORD SLOWLY. DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE INCREASED... BUT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR PUNCHING IN FROM THE NORTH\r\nHAS SPLIT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN TWO. BOTH TAFB AND SAB CAME IN\r\nWITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER\r\n...OFTENTIMES THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF LARGE DEVELOPING LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ONE WILL LAG ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON\r\nNEARBY NOAA BUOY WIND REPORTS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS... WITH A MOTION BETWEEN 240-270 DEGREES AND NO MORE THAN\r\n3 KT. THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nCENTERS... WITH THE MORE DOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEAK WESTWARD STEERING PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO UNTIL A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MOVES OVER AND\r\nDOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS\r\nNORTHWARD FROM THE GULF HIGH CENTER THROUGH LOUISIANA AND INTO\r\nMISSOURI. THE GLOBAL MODELS HANDLES THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE\r\nDIFFERENTLY WITH THE GFDL...GFS...UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS BEING\r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAINTAIN THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. THROUGH DAY 3... WHEREAS THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS DAMPEN IT\r\nOUT AND KEEP A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH ACROSS\r\nFLORIDA AND THE GULF. IF ANYTHING... THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO\r\nDAMPEN THESE TYPES OF SHORTWAVES TOO MUCH... SO MY FEELING IS THAT\r\nTHE GFS... GFDL... UKMET... AND ECMWF MODELS MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH\r\nSHORTWAVE ENERGY EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY DAYS 2-3\r\nAND... THEREFORE... THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD WEAKEN MORE THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THOSE MODELS. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCREATE A SMALL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER-LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY DAY 5 TO MOVE ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CREATE AN EVEN LARGER\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN CUBA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... OR\r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE LEFT...OR\r\nWEST... OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF NOGAPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN BOTH 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nACROSS FLORIDA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT... A VERY FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND WARM SSTS OF MORE THAN 29C SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT... THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS... AND DECREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT AFTER 48\r\nHOURS. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BECOME MAJOR\r\nHURRICANES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL... WHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 88 KT BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 17.0N  79.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.9N  79.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 16.9N  80.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N  80.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.3N  81.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N  82.6W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N  83.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  84.0W    95 KT...NEAR WESTERN CUBA\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Four","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MORE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER WITH HINTS OF A LITTLE MORE BANDING.  THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE UNCHANGED...AT\r\nT2.5/35 KT...BUT AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WITH SUCH A\r\nBROAD WIND FIELD THE WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL LAGGING THE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE REACHING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO BETTER ASSESS THE STRENGTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS EXTREMELY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH LOW SHEAR AND GOOD ANTICYCLONIC\r\nOUTFLOW...AND THERE IS A DEEP SUPPLY OF WARM WATER IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN.  THE RAPID INSTENSIFICATION COMPONENT OF THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT...\r\nBUT A BETTER DEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE NEEDS TO FORM FIRST.  THE\r\nGFDL MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN\r\nTHREE DAYS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FACTORS ARE CERTAINLY IN PLACE TO\r\nALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  THIS TOO...WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED WHEN THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OF THE\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCAUGHT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS...WITH THE MORE\r\nDOMINANT ONE BEING LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL\r\nSOON BE MOVING BY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WESTWARD DRIFT TO RESUME\r\nLATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY ERODE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nOVER THE GULF AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGRESSES EASTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT ON AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nNORTH AS THE RIDGE ERODES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WITH\r\nSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO\r\nACCELERATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A SHADE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 17.1N  79.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N  79.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 17.2N  80.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 17.3N  80.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 17.7N  81.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 20.5N  84.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 23.5N  84.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Four","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.  INDEED...THEY HAVE YET\r\nTO FIND ANY FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER THAN 31 KT...WHICH ONLY\r\nSUPPORTS 25 KT AT THE SURFACE.  IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY\r\nHOWEVER...I WILL ASSUME THAT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS EXIST SOMEWHERE\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT HASN'T YET SAMPLED.  WHILE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND AT THE\r\nSURFACE ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nREMAINS DOMINATED BY OUTER BANDS WITH RELATIVELY LITTLE ACTIVITY\r\nNEAR THE CORE.  FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR HAS BEEN PUSHING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTER ALONG\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THESE\r\nINHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER.  THE\r\nGFDL IS STILL CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL CALLING FOR MORE\r\nGRADUAL DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. EARLIER THE DEPRESSION\r\nWAS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD..BUT NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS BYPASSING THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY...A TURN\r\nBACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...UKMET...\r\nNOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF RELATIVELY\r\nUNMOVED. GENERALLY SPEAKING...THESE MODELS SHOW LESS EROSION OF THE\r\nRIDGE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND HAVE A MORE\r\nZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME\r\nFRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFDL...WITH THE UKMET...GFS...AND NOGAPS CONSIDERABLY\r\nFARTHER WEST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 17.7N  79.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.8N  79.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 17.9N  80.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 18.1N  81.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 18.4N  81.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.5N  83.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N  85.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  86.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Four","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY CHANGED\r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  WHILE OUTER BANDS HAVE DISSIPATED...\r\nSOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERUPTED NEAR AND ESPECIALLY TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER TONIGHT... ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN PERCOLATING RATHER THAN MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB AND T2.0/30 KT FROM AFWA.  WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA\r\nBUOY 42057 ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF THE CENTER AND OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION HAVE BEEN NO STRONGER THAN 19 KT DURING THE EVENING...\r\nAND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT THE WINDS ARE TWICE THAT STRONG BENEATH\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  EVEN THOUGH THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n30 KT... THE DEPRESSION APPEARS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS\r\nAND WILL LIKELY REACH IT ON MONDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT BUT IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 275/2. THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE WESTWARD TREND CONTINUES IN THE 18Z RUNS OF THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL WHICH NOW FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO REACH THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. THE LAST FEW GFS RUNS HAVE\r\nBEEN HANGING ON TO PROGRESSIVELY MORE MID-LEVEL RIDGING FOR THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES ON\r\nDAYS 4-5. THE NEW GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THE\r\nNOGAPS... WHICH IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nBUT HAS NUDGED A LITTLE BACK TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST PATTERN NOW\r\nANTICIPATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS WOULD DELAY A TURN OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD TO VERY LATE IN THE FIVE DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTOWARD... BUT NOT AS FAR AS... THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE\r\nLARGE SPREAD OF THE MODELS... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5... THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST OR SUPPORTING\r\nREASONING.  AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROVIDED BY\r\nA LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND\r\nWATERS WITH LARGE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT... SHOULD LEAD TO\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS APPEARS EVEN\r\nMORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN THE MORE CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING.  THE LATEST GFDL FORECASTS MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING... AND MORE RAPIDLY... THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FEW\r\nRUNS... WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 115 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  MEANWHILE\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN FORECASTING A\r\nHURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN\r\nBETWEEN AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 17.6N  79.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.7N  80.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 17.8N  80.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N  81.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 18.3N  83.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N  85.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  86.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N  87.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Wilma","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n \r\nA TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS AS COLD AS -87C TO\r\n-89C... HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH\r\nAND SOUTHWEST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER OF NOW TROPICAL STORM WILMA.\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA ALONG WITH WIND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42057\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OR\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER... THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DOES NOT APPEAR TO\r\nBE LOCATED IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... RATHER IT IS\r\nLIKELY LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE -50C CLOUD TOPS.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5 FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA... AND A UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ODT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE AT 17/0545Z WAS T2.8/41 KT. IN ADDITION... GRADIENT WIND\r\nCALCULATIONS USING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND NEARBY PRESSURE VALUES\r\nFROM THE NOAA BUOY AND JAMAICA SUPPORT 35-KT WINDS SOMEWHERE WITHIN\r\n60 NMI OF THE CENTER. IF ANY 35-KT WINDS EXISTS... THEN THEY ARE\r\nLIKELY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONG CONVECTION IS\r\nLOCATED. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT...\r\nWHICH MAKES WILMA THE 21ST NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF THE VERY BUSY\r\n2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THIS TIES THE RECORD SET BACK IN\r\n1933.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 235/03. THE GENERAL TREND IN THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN TO SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH OR\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OVER FLORIDA AND\r\nCUBA APPEAR TO BE THE ONLY STEERING FLOW AVAILABLE. BUT ON A LARGER\r\nSCALE... WILMA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN TO HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nTHE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nWESTWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND FORECAST\r\nTRACK. THE ONLY MODELS NOT CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS OR GUNA MODEL\r\nARE THE ECMWF... CANADIAN... AND THE GFS 10-MEMBER ENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\nTHE ECWMF HAS BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT WITH ITS TRACK THE PAST 5\r\nDAYS IN MOVING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IT ALSO WAS\r\nTHE ONLY MODEL TO EARLY AND ACCURATELY PREDICT CYCLOGENESIS. THE\r\nECMWF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALSO THE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT\r\nLOSE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AXIS OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE.\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z INDICATE A GOOD THERMAL PATTERN ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THIS TROUGH... WHICH ONLY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE PICKED\r\nUP ON. THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN/ERODE THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA... CUBA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO BY 48 HOURS. ALSO... THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE COAST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN A BLOCKING-TYPE PATTERN ACROSS THE\r\nU.S.... WHICH MEANS THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE FOR AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT... OR WEST... OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nOUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL... AND ALSO UNTIL THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BECOMES\r\nMORE CERTAIN BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nSOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE STILL UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER... THESE ADVERSE\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING BASED ON CONVENTIONAL\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A 17/0155Z SSMI WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS.\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nCONTINUED INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ONLY\r\nPOSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PRECLUDES\r\nFORECASTING WILMA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LESS ROBUST SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND THE VERY BULLISH GFDL MODEL... WITH THE LATTER MODEL\r\nMAKING WILMA A 109-KT HURRICANE BY 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 17.2N  79.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.1N  80.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 17.2N  81.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 17.4N  82.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 17.8N  83.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N  85.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  86.5W    90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N  87.5W    90 KT...NEAR NORTHEAST YUCATAN\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Wilma","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT TREND THAT WE HAVE BEEN ANTICIPATING FOR A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS IS UNDERWAY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING MAINTAINED VERY NEAR\r\nAND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH BANDING FEATURES\r\nDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0/45 KT...AND A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 12Z SUGGESTS WINDS ARE ALSO 40-45 KT.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND I EXPECT\r\nSTRONGER WINDS WHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES EARLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING AND THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWILMA DROVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT BUT A WESTWARD COMPONENT SEEMS TO\r\nHAVE RETURNED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 235/4. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARILY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO\r\nRUN AND THERE IS PRESENTLY A HUGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  WHAT IS\r\nMOST PUZZLING IS THAT THE MODELS THAT BEST ANTICIPATED THE\r\nSOUTHWARD MOTION OVERNIGHT...THE GFDL AND THE GFS...ARE WAY OUT\r\nTHERE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK\r\nOVER WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF TAKE WILMA INTO VARIOUS PARTS OF THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  THERE ARE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT\r\nOF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THESE\r\nMODELS THAT IS AFFECTING THE ABILITY OF WILMA TO CONNECT WITH THE\r\nWESTERLIES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE IT IS\r\nTEMPTING TO ADJUST THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT BASED ON THE RECENT\r\nCHANGES WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...THE FACT THAT THE 6Z RUNS OF\r\nBOTH MODELS WERE INITIALIZED A BIT TOO FAR NORTH MAY MEAN THAT THEY\r\nARE TOO FAST WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO.  FOR NOW...I HAVE MADE\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  CLEARLY...CONFIDENCE AT\r\nTHE LONGER RANGES IS UNUSUALLY LOW.  WHILE THE SOUTHWARD MOTION\r\nOVERNIGHT NOW REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR\r\nHONDURAS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK AS WELL AS THE SIZE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...IT IS A LITTLE PREMATURE TO LOWER THE WATCH\r\nAND WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 16.3N  80.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.2N  80.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  81.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N  82.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  83.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  85.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N  86.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  87.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Wilma","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST ARRIVED IN THE CENTER OF\r\nWILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  WHILE THIS\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY...\r\nENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY LOW...FLATTENING THE PRESSURE\r\nGRADIENT.  THOUGH THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDECREASED WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...BANDING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP\r\nAND NEW CONVECTION IS GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER.  WILMA\r\nCONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONE\r\nWHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  CONTINUED\r\nDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nMAKING WILMA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  ONCE\r\nWILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME\r\nMORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE\r\nEXPECTED AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nWILMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OR 190/2. CERTAINLY\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH THIS\r\nPOSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OBSERVED\r\nOVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CORE\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON...AND I AM\r\nEXPECTING WILMA TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN BETTER\r\nACCORD WITH THE GUIDANCE.  THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE LOW OFF OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WILMA TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FOR\r\nREASONS UNKNOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 200 MILES AND NO LONGER\r\nDRIVE WILMA INTO BELIZE. THE GFS AND GFDL...ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE RATHER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILMA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE ENCOUNTERING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nTHAT SHOULD FORCE A FAIRLY SHARP RIGHT TURN. HOW SHARP A TURN WILMA\r\nTAKES IS OBVIOUSLY OF INTEREST TO ALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC AREAS AT\r\nGREATEST RISK.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 15.8N  79.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.9N  80.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.3N  81.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.9N  82.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N  84.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  85.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  86.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 23.5N  85.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Wilma","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON FIX AT 2130Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 989 MB...\r\nAND THE ONBOARD RADAR REVEALED A DEVELOPING SMALL RAGGED EYE\r\nFEATURE.  A SERIES OF PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY SSMI AND SSMIS\r\nDURING THE PAST THREE HOURS ALSO INDICATES AT LEAST A MID-LEVEL\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING THIS EVENING\r\nOVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION... BUT WITHOUT ENOUGH\r\nCONSISTENCY TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORM IS INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY.  A\r\nDISJOINTED AND BROAD BAND OF COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAINS WELL REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS NO DATA\r\nTO INDICATE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING THAT FAR FROM\r\nTHE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z HAVE COME UP A BIT\r\nTO 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  GIVEN THESE\r\nESTIMATES AND THE STRUCTURE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THIS REMAINS AT THE\r\nLOWER END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nDISCUSSED LAG BETWEEN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND SURFACE WINDS\r\nINDICATED BY THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO FLY INTO WILMA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO HELP GET A\r\nBETTER HANDLE ON THE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nWILMA STOPPED LOSING LATITUDE EARLIER THIS EVENING WHEN IT PULLED UP\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY... BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT\r\nHAS BEGUN A WESTWARD DRIFT... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 270/2.  OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT SAME DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY\r\nPERIOD.  THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT WILMA WILL RECURVE AFTER\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE\r\nCONTINENTAL UNITED STATES.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... HOWEVER... THE\r\nMODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW SHARPLY WILMA WILL TURN AND HOW FAST\r\nIT WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW MUCH\r\nFASTER AFTER RECURVATURE... BUT THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY\r\nBE ADJUSTED PART OF THE WAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nLATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING WHILE WILMA REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA... AND IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THEREAFTER... INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD\r\nHALT INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING... BUT\r\nNOT ENOUGH TO WEAKEN WILMA BENEATH HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE\r\nFIVE-DAY TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 15.8N  80.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N  80.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.6N  81.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N  82.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  83.7W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N  85.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N  85.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  82.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Wilma","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-10-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SEVERAL INDICATORS SUGGESTING THAT WILMA IS STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 982 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES...AND\r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nWILMA IS A HURRICANE. IN ADDITION...TWO MICROWAVE PASSAGES FROM\r\nDIFFERENT SATELLITES SHOW AN EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER...WIND\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER\r\nTHAN 60 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. GIVEN THE CONDITIONS OF LIGHT SHEAR AND\r\nVERY WARM OCEAN...STRENGHTENING IS INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS MODELS. WILMA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBEAN SEA...TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED\r\nIN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S. THIS IS NOTHING NEW.\r\n\r\nWILMA HAS BARELY MOVED FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DESPITE MODELS\r\nSHOWING A WEAKENING OF THE ANTICYLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nTHIS FEATURE IS STILL THERE AND STRONG...BLOCKING THE MOTION OF\r\nWILMA. IT IS STILL FRESH IN MY MEMORY THAT...IN 1998 WITH A SIMILAR\r\nSTEERING PATTERN...ALL MODELS MOVED HURRICANE MITCH NORTHWARD AND\r\nTHE HURRICANE INDEED MOVED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nHAVE IMPROVED A LOT SINCE THEN AND THE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. THE\r\nANTICYCLONE IN THE GULF IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE TROUGH\r\nSWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES...AND THE ATLANTIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST TO BUILD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nA SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...TOWARD THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...\r\nWILMA WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVATURE WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH SHOWS A HURRICANE MOVING EITHER OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL OR WESTERN CUBA AND THEN OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF\r\nTHE FLORIDA PENISULA BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. REMEMBER...THERE IS A\r\nLARGE VARIABILITY AND LARGE ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 4 AND 5 DAY\r\nFORECASTS. SO AT THIS TIME STAY TUNE AND MONITOR CLOSELY THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.7N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.8N  80.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.6N  81.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.3N  82.4W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.6N  84.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N  85.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N  84.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  80.0W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-10-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF T4.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS\r\nFROM UW/CIMSS OF T4.5 SINCE 09Z. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. COLD CONVECTION IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED OVER THE CENTER...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nCHANNELS CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH. THE ONLY INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR IS THE DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN...BUT THE LARGE AND GROWING CIRCULATION OF WILMA SHOULD\r\nBE ABLE TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS AIR FROM REACHING THE CORE. A HIGH\r\nLIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL BE A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE WHEN IT ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA\r\nACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...WIND SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO INCREASE...BUT THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF IT TO\r\nWEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/5.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nTHAT HAD BEEN OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS NOW MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...AND AS IT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN\r\nABOUT THREE DAYS.  ONCE WILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAXIS AND ENCOUNTERS MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND\r\nREMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWILMA...THE 12TH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...TIES THE RECORD FOR MOST\r\nHURRICANES IN A SEASON SET IN 1969.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 16.5N  80.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N  81.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.7N  82.3W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N  83.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N  84.5W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 24.0N  84.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 28.5N  78.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-10-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST MADE ITS FIRST PASS\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTER OF WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n970 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO FAR...OF 75 KT.  A\r\nDROPSONDE IN THE NORTH EYEWALL REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 64 KT. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE AND\r\nRECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE THINKING REGARDING THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST. WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nCHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE\r\nDRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH\r\nLIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE\r\nSHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nBY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nSLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO\r\nWEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST THINKING.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAD BEEN\r\nOFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...AND AS\r\nIT PROGRESSES HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN...ALLOWING WILMA TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nAND ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. ONCE\r\nWILMA MOVES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND ENCOUNTERS\r\nMID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD IS\r\nEXPECTED.  ONLY VERY MODEST SHIFTS HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE\r\nTIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...WHICH...AT THIS TIME...IS\r\nFOCUSING THE LONG-TERM THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.7N  81.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N  82.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.2N  83.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.1N  84.5W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.2N  85.2W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N  85.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 25.0N  82.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 30.5N  75.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-10-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE.  REPORTS FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING WILMA BETWEEN 19Z AND\r\n23Z INDICATED A 7-8 N MI WIDE EYE...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nDROPPING FROM 970 MB TO 954 MB IN 3 HR 14 MIN.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT 850 MB WERE 101 KT. \r\nSINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION...\r\nWITH A RING OF COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -87C SURROUNDING THE EYE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 90\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.  THIS MAY BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS THE 12 HR MOTION OF 285/7...ALTHOUGH FOR THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST AND\r\nPERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER.  WILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGES SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nARIZONA MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD.  THE RIDGES SHOULD\r\nCOLLAPSE COMPLETELY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AFTER 72 HR.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWILMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN\r\nNORTHWARD...THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AFTER 72 HR.  ALL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS SOME SPREAD ON THE EXACTLY WHERE WILMA WILL RECURVE BETWEEN THE\r\nLEFT-MOST GFDN AND RIGHT-MOST UKMET. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS DO NOT COMPLETELY\r\nAGREE ON HOW THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGH WILL EVOLVE...AND THESE\r\nDIFFERENCES COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHAT PARTS OF\r\nFLORIDA WILMA WILL ULTIMATELY AFFECT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED.  THE CURRENT\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA\r\nTO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A\r\nSURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT. \r\nHOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL\r\nCOVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT\r\nOUTSIDE THE EYEWALL.  OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nTHAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM. \r\nTHUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS\r\nSO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL\r\nCONTRACTS.  SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR.  WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA\r\nWILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n\r\nTHE NOAA G4 JET FLEW ITS FIRST SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION ON\r\nWILMA THIS EVENING...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE IMPACT\r\nON THE 00Z MODEL RUNS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.8N  82.1W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.2N  83.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N  84.2W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N  85.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.4N  85.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  85.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  81.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 33.0N  72.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-10-19 05:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT\r\n850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE.  WILMA IS\r\nNOW A VERY STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE AND COULD BECOME A\r\nCATEGORY FIVE TODAY.  NO CHANGE IN TRACK IS NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0500Z 16.9N  82.0W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.2N  83.1W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N  84.2W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N  85.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.4N  85.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  85.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  81.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 33.0N  72.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-10-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL  CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16 CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n\r\n...TO USE THE PROPER WORD...RELAYED...\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE\r\n...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB\r\nAND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.\r\nUNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN\r\nEXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.\r\nTHIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN\r\nOSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC\r\nBASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988.  HOWEVER...ONE MUST BE VERY CAREFUL\r\nBEFORE IT IS DECLARED A RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE UNTIL A FULL AND\r\nDETAILED CALIBRATION OF THE INSTRUMENTS AND CALCULATIONS IS\r\nPERFORMED. SO PLEASE DO NOT JUMP INTO CONCLUSIONS YET...BE PATIENT.\r\n \r\nWILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER\r\nVERY WARM WATERS...TYPICAL OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND\r\nWITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE\r\nFAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT...WILMA IS NEAR ITS MAXIMUM\r\nPOTENTIAL INTENSITY AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED.\r\nMOST LIKELY...THE SMALL EYE WILL COLLAPSE FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING OR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS\r\nWHILE THE HURRICANE IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\nTHEREAFTER...ONCE WILMA REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nENCOUNTERS THE WESTERLIES AND HIGH SHEAR...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT\r\n7 KNOTS. IT SEEMS THAT DATA FROM THE HIGH ALTITUDE NOAA JET\r\nINGESTED BY MODELS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO SHIFT\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD FOR THE 2 TO 3 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER...NO CHANGE IN\r\nTRACK IS INDICATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO TURN WILMA SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA. BASED ON THE\r\nLATEST GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD BUT IS KEPT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.\r\nTHIS IN CASE THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT\r\nRUN.\r\n \r\nIN SUMMARY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE CORE OF THIS\r\nCATASTROPHIC HURRICANE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND\r\nTHEN SHARPLY TURNS A WEAKER HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD\r\nFLORIDA WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS\r\nOR WATCHES IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 17.2N  82.5W   150 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N  83.4W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N  84.7W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  85.7W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N  86.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 26.5N  81.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 33.0N  72.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-10-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH WILMA EARLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THEN THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED A BIT.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL BE HELD AT 150 KT\r\nPENDING FURTHER RECONNAISSANCE DATA.  AT THIS POINT...THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE FOR THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS A BLEND OF THE 881 MB\r\nEXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND THE 884 MB FROM AN EYE DROP THAT\r\nSPLASHED IN 23 KT WINDS.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A DISTINCT OUTER\r\nWIND MAXIMUM AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A FORMATIVE OUTER EYEWALL. \r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE\r\nINTENSITY OF WILMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THESE ARE\r\nIMPOSSIBLE TO TIME AND ARE NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nONCE WILMA ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCONDITIONS WILL NOT BE AS IDEAL AS THEY ARE NOW AND SOME WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED...HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A\r\nFORMIDABLE HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES FLORIDA.  AFTER THAT...AS\r\nWILMA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE UPPER-LOW...THE WIND FIELD OF\r\nWILMA IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND CONSIDERABLY...AND EVEN GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE SHOWING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITH THE SYSTEM AT 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nPRONOUNCED TROCHOIDAL OSCILLATIONS ARE BEING SUPERIMPOSED ON A MEAN\r\nMOTION OF 300/6.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS.  HOWEVER...RECENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND\r\nNOGAPS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A THREAT TO NEW ENGLAND. \r\nIN THIS SCENARIO...WILMA BECOMES CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN\r\nFOUR DAYS.  THE ECMWF AND IN PARTICULAR THE UKMET...BOTH OLDER\r\nRUNS...DO NOT YET INDICATE THIS.  THE FIVE-DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nPOINT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IS STILL MUCH FARTHER OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THAN\r\nTHE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.4N  83.2W   150 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  84.0W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.1N  85.1W   150 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 20.4N  85.9W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  86.2W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 24.0N  84.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  77.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 39.0N  69.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n \r\nAGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE\r\n06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA\r\nRAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE\r\nMODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN\r\nEXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI\r\nFROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.\r\nTHERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF\r\nTHE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME\r\nSENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nGREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND\r\nTHE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA\r\nDELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL\r\nCHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.\r\nNEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nTIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 892\r\nMB...WITH PEAK 700 MB WINDS OF 152 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 140 KT.  AIRCRAFT REPORTS...AS WELL AS MICROWAVE AND\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE INNER\r\n5-MILE-WIDE EYE OF WILMA IS WEAKENING WITHIN TWO OUTER EYEWALLS...\r\nONE 10 MILES WIDE AND ANOTHER ABOUT 45 MILES ACROSS.  IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...THIS MEANS THAT THE PEAK WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AS THE WIND\r\nFIELD EXPANDS...BUT THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE TIME FOR WILMA TO\r\nREINTENSITY BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN.  WITH AN INCREASING\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nYUCATAN...I HAVE LOWERED THE INTENSITY FORECAST SLIGHTLY IN THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.7N  83.7W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N  84.6W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.2N  85.6W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.4N  86.2W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.6N  86.3W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 24.0N  84.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 27.5N  79.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 36.0N  70.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-10-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n \r\nEARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N\r\nMI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT. \r\nSINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nCLOUD-FILLED.  ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE\r\nINNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES\r\nBETTER DEFINED.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED\r\nTO 135 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA\r\nAROUND 05Z-06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7.  IN THE SHORT TERM...A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER\r\n24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES\r\nTHROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nA POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S..  THE FIRST\r\nSHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER\r\nTROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES. \r\nTHE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER\r\nNO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT\r\nBETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR.  HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF\r\nGUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE. \r\nIT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR.  THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON\r\nTHE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER. \r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST\r\nBEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  AFTER PASSAGE OVER\r\nFLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN\r\nCOOLER WATER.  THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA.  THE FIRST IS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nPENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH.  A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT\r\nIN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR.  SHOULD\r\nTHIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S..\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 18.1N  84.3W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 18.8N  85.2W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.8N  86.0W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 20.8N  86.5W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.8N  86.6W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N  84.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 27.0N  80.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 38.0N  70.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-10-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005\r\n \r\nAS ANTICIPATED...WILMA IS GOING THROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN\r\nEYEWALL CYCLE. THIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH REPORTED EXCELLENT RADAR\r\nPRESENTATION OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 4 AND 40 N MI IN DIAMETER\r\nRESPECTIVELY. THE PLANE ALSO OBSERVED TWO MAXIMUM WIND BANDS...ONE\r\nWITH WINDS OF 121 KNOTS...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 903 MB MEASURED\r\nBY A SONDE...BUT WITH 23 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. THE PRESSURE COULD\r\nTHEN BE A FEW MILLIBARS LOWER. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS SPECTACULAR AS IT WAS 12 TO 18 HOURS\r\nAGO AND IN FACT...THE EYE IS OBSCURED AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWN TO 130 KNOTS. THIS MAY BE AN OVERESTIMATE\r\nSINCE THE MAXIMUM WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 121 KNOTS. HOWEVER...WE\r\nARE ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nWE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY WHEN AND IF THE STRENGTHENING PHASE OF THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN. SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT\r\nWILL OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE THE\r\nFORMATION OF A LARGE EYE LATER TODAY. THEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND\r\nTHERE WILL BE INCREASING WIND SHEAR. WILMA SHOULD THEN BEGIN A\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPECTED NORTHWEST TURN HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET AND THE AVERAGE\r\nMOTION OF WILMA IS STILL 295 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE SHORT WAVE OVER THE WEST\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES ADVANCES RAPIDLY EASTWARD.  THIS WAVE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS OVER THE GULF OE MEXICO AND WILMA\r\nSHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE WEAKNESS. THE\r\nSHORT-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND BRING THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH\r\nENOUGH TO CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  BEFORE THE WESTERLIES\r\nBECOME ESTABLISHED...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK.\r\nWILMA WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR A DAY OR SO OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN\r\nOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE TAKING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IN\r\nA TYPICAL RECURVATURE PATTERN.\r\n \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE USUAL VARIABILITY BUT THE OVERALL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS IS TO KEEP WILMA MOVING VERY SLOWLY NEAR OR OVER\r\nNORTHEASTERN YUCATAN FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THEN SHARPLY TURNING\r\nTHE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT BY DAY\r\nFIVE...WILMA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nBY JUDGING THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND FIELD AND THE FRONTAL LIKE\r\nMOISTURE PATTERN IN MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 18.3N  85.0W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N  85.8W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  86.5W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N  87.0W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N  86.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 24.0N  84.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 27.0N  80.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 37.1N  70.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-10-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 20 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...295/6...WHICH\r\nREMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FOR THIS\r\nREASON...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ON THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA. RAOB DATA IN FLORIDA AND TEXAS SUGGEST THAT\r\nRIDGING IN THE GULF IS WEAKENING AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED THAT\r\nWILMA WILL BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET ARE BEING INGESTED INTO\r\nTHE 12Z MODELS AND WE WILL SOON SEE WHAT IMPACT THESE DATA HAVE ON\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED. \r\nRIDGING IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH WILMA ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SHORT-WAVE ENERGY DIGS SOUTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS A GENERALLY SLOWER RECURVATURE AND ACCELERATION. \r\nAS FAR AS THE FLORIDA THREAT IS CONCERNED...THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE\r\nTHREAT REMAINS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE\r\nKEYS...AND IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO NARROW THAT DOWN ANY FURTHER.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO\r\nWEAKEN...AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE'S\r\nHIGHEST WINDS ALREADY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.\r\nALTHOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE PROGRESSES...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE\r\nSTATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN.  WILMA IS NOW EXPECTED TO\r\nSPEND ENOUGH TIME IN OR NEAR THE YUCATAN TO RESULT IN A\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER STORM IN THE GULF WHEN IT APPROACHES FLORIDA. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 18.4N  85.5W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.1N  86.2W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.3N  86.9W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.2N  87.0W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N  86.2W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 24.0N  84.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 28.5N  78.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 40.0N  68.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY\r\nTHE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE.  A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE\r\nLONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK\r\nMODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING\r\nBUILDS IN BEHIND IT.  IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW\r\nSUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF\r\nTHE YUCATAN.  THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY\r\nFORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z.  THERE IS LESS SPREAD\r\nIN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE\r\nMORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK.  THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE\r\nBENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS\r\nSTILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  THIS\r\nIMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN\r\nINDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO\r\nRESTRENGTHEN.  PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR\r\nINSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH\r\nEYEWALL.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 130 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND\r\nWILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS\r\nBEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE\r\nCATASTROPHIC.  WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nBEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA.  IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA\r\nLINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.9N  85.7W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N  86.4W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.4N  87.0W   145 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.1N  87.2W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N  84.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 27.5N  79.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 38.0N  70.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-10-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF WILMA HAD RISEN TO 923 MB...AND THE\r\nMAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 130-140 KT. \r\nSINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVED EYE PRESENTATION\r\nAND COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER..ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH TO\r\nJUSTIFY AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE WILMA\r\nAROUND 05Z.\r\n\r\nWILMA HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HR...WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW 325/5.  THE HURRICANE IS MOVING INTO A COL AREA\r\nBETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST AND WEST...WHILE THE STRONGER\r\nWESTERLIES REMAIN NORTH OF 26N ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE NOAA G4\r\nJET.  THIS IS A GOOD FORMULA FOR SLOW MOTION...AND ALL MODELS AGREE\r\nON THIS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSTEER WILMA NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HR...A MOTION THAT IS NOT SUPPORTED BY THE CURRENT RIGHT\r\nTURN OR THE JET DATA. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE WELL\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE CENTER FORECAST TO\r\nPASS OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. \r\nTHIS TRACK ALSO REQUIRES AN EARLIER RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES\r\nTHAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE AND A FASTER PROGRESS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT SLOWER THROUGH 96 HR. \r\nGIVEN THE RADICAL DEPARTURE FROM THE MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS IS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC.  FIRST...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DUE TO PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  IF WILMA MOVES AS FAR INLAND AS THE MODELS FORECAST...\r\nIT WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER THAN FORECAST\r\nALONG THE REST OF THE TRACK.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE EYE MOVES\r\nEAST OF THE TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY STAY STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST...AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR.  SECOND...ALL AVAILABLE\r\nDATA SHOWS THAT THE OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED TO THE WEST AS WEAK\r\nWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGES ON WILMA.  THIS WILL LIKELY NOT PREVENT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE\r\nA PRECURSOR TO THE SHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE WILMA TO WEAKEN REGARDLESS\r\nOF HOW STRONG IT IS AFTER PASSING YUCATAN.  THIRD...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR COVERING THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  AS WILMA INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES...THIS AIR\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE...AND INDEED THERE HAS\r\nBEEN SOME EROSION OF THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HR.  FINALLY...WILMA SHOULD PASS OVER THE WARM LOOP\r\nCURRENT FOLLOWED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE\r\nLATTER SHOULD AID THE SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF WILMA MISSES YUCATAN\r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE THAT IN SPITE OF ALL THE NEGATIVE FACTORS IT\r\nCOULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.\r\n\r\nNOAA BUOY 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REPORTS THAT LARGE\r\nSWELLS GENERATED BY WILMA ARE PROPAGATING TOWARD PORTIONS OF THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST...AND COULD REACH THE COAST ON FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 19.3N  86.0W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.9N  86.4W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.8N  87.0W   145 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  87.1W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.1N  86.7W   105 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N  84.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 27.5N  79.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 38.5N  69.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-10-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA IS BEING TRACKED BY THE CANCUN RADAR...NOAA BUOY 42056...AND\r\nBY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER DEFINED WITH A\r\nRING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A LARGE EYE. THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS IN THE EYE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 929 MB AND SO FAR...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB ARE\r\n130 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT JUSTIFY AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS\r\nBUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE EYEWALL THESE WINDS ARE\r\nOCCURRING AND HAVE NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT YET.  SINCE THE\r\nEYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT AND IS SHRINKING...SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nEFFECTS OF LAND AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL CAUSE WILMA TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nWILMA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS.\r\nBECAUSE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAK...TRACK MODELS\r\nMOVE WILMA SLOWLY AND IN ALL DIRECTIONS DURING 24 TO 36 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...MAKING THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\nNEVERTHERLESS...THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR LITTLE OR ERRATIC MOTION\r\nOVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN OR THE ADJACENT WATERS UNTIL THE\r\nWESTERLIES EXPAND SOUTHWARD AND CARRY WILMA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nBEYOND 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS SLOW MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DELAY THE\r\nRECURVATURE TOWARD FLORIDA PROLONGING THE AGONIZING WAIT. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...IT GIVES TIME FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE\r\nEFFECTS OF LAND AND SHEAR. IN FACT...THE GFDL MODEL REFLECTS THE\r\nSLOW MOTION AND HAS A WEAKENED WILMA JUST WEST OF HAVANA CUBA\r\nBETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5. HOWEVER...IF THE EYE REMAINS OFFSHORE EAST OF\r\nYUCATAN LIKE SUGGESTED BY THE LAST RUN OF THE UK MODEL...WILMA\r\nCOULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED.\r\n \r\nHAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BE MORE UNCERTAIN\r\nTHAN USUAL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 20.0N  86.2W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.4N  86.6W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.2N  87.1W   115 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 21.6N  87.5W   115 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  87.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 23.5N  84.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 27.0N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 36.0N  70.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-10-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005\r\n \r\nWHETHER DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND OR SOME OTHER FACTORS... THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED\r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING... BUT THAT DID NOT LAST LONG. THE RING OF\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECONSTITUTED AROUND THE ENTIRE 30 N MI\r\nWIDE EYE... WHICH HAS BECOME A LITTLE CLEARER AND WARMER IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CANCUN RADAR DEPICTS A VERY SOLID OUTER\r\nEYEWALL OVER COZUMEL... AND THE INNER EYEWALL IS LIKELY WEAKER BUT\r\nPERHAPS NOT AS WEAK AS IT SEEMS ON RADAR DUE TO ATTENUATION.\r\nPASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AND AMSU DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS DEPICT THE OUTER EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 45 N MI...\r\nAND EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA CONTAIN WIND MAXIMA AT RADII OF ABOUT 20\r\nAND 45 N MI. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL WILL CONTRACT\r\nAND LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM... BUT EYEWALLS WITH\r\nTHIS LARGE OF A DIAMETER SOMETIMES REMAIN STEADY-STATE. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z DID NOT QUITE SUPPORT THE CURRENT\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY OF 125 KT... BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE RING REFORMED.\r\n \r\nWILMA IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN\r\nMEXICO AND A MORE EXTENSIVE RIDGE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE ATLANTIC RIDGE SEEMED TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE UNTIL VERY\r\nRECENTLY... WHEN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SLOWED. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...325/4...AND THE SHORT TERM\r\nMOTION MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER. 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THIS MORNING'S\r\nNOAA G-IV JET SURVEILLANCE MISSION INDICATE PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE\r\nMORE RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAN CONTAINED IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM FORECASTS FROM THE 06Z MODELS... SO THE SLOWER MOTION\r\nNOW OBSERVED IS NOT SURPRISING. NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE CENTER OF WILMA TO MAKE LANDFALL ON NORTHEASTERN\r\nYUCATAN TODAY... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MODELS DO NOT\r\nAGREE ON HOW LONG WILMA WILL SPEND OVER LAND... AND THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHILE ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...REMAINS TO THE EAST OF MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS AND KEEPS WILMA ON LAND FOR LESS THAN 18 HOURS.\r\nOBVIOUSLY... A LONGER STAY OVER YUCATAN COULD CAUSE MORE WEAKENING\r\nTHAN FORECAST...BUT THE OPPOSITE IS ALSO TRUE.\r\n\r\nIN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED. FORTUNATELY FOR THE SAKE OF BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nAMONG THE MODELS... THE NOGAPS NO LONGER KEEPS WILMA IN THE\r\nCARIBBEAN FOR FIVE DAYS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE REMAINING\r\nMODELS. THIS RESULTS IN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS BEING IN FAIRLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE MODELS REMAINS QUITE LARGE... AND BOTH THE\r\nLOCATION AND TIMING OF THE IMPACTS ON FLORIDA REMAIN VERY\r\nUNCERTAIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY IN STEADILY WEAKENING WILMA OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO DUE PRIMARILY TO INCREASING SHEAR. HOWEVER... IF WILMA DOES\r\nNOT SPEND MUCH TIME OVER YUCATAN... IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST WHEN IT CROSSES FLORIDA.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 20.2N  86.5W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 20.8N  87.0W   135 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.3N  87.4W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 21.8N  87.4W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.3N  86.9W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 24.5N  83.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 29.5N  77.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 39.0N  67.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-10-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF WILMA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONTRACTING DURING THE DAY...\r\nWITH THE EYE DIAMETER DOWN TO 25 N MI COMPARED TO 30 N MI THIS\r\nMORNING.  CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS REMAIN AT RADII OF ABOUT 20 AND 40 N\r\nMI... WITH FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATING THAT THE OUTER\r\nEYEWALL CONTAINS THE STRONGEST WINDS.  SEVERAL EYEWALL DROPSONDES\r\nHAVE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS IN THE 110-130 KT RANGE.  ONE SUCH\r\nSONDE MEASUREMENT MIGHT NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF SUSTAINED SURFACE\r\nWINDS... BUT A SEQUENCE OF THEM PROBABLY PROVIDES A REASONABLE\r\nESTIMATED OF THE INTENSITY... WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THIS RANGE AT 120 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY 18Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT ARE UNANIMOUSLY\r\nT6.5/127 KT.\r\n\r\nWILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... NEARLY ALONG THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK WITH A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY MOTION OF 320 DEGREES AT 4\r\nKT.  THE CENTER OF THE EYE IS CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN END OF THE\r\nISLAND OF COZUMEL AT THIS HOUR... BUT DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION IT\r\nWILL PROBABLY TAKE A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THE EYE TO CROSS THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  NEARLY ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST WILMA TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND\r\nPROCEED RATHER SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES WILMA COULD SPEND ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER\r\nLAND... WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO MORE WEAKENING THAN HAS\r\nPREVIOUSLY BEEN FORECAST.  OBVIOUSLY THIS WILL INCREASE THE\r\nDURATION OF DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS OVER YUCATAN.  IT\r\nSEEMS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL EMERGE NORTH OF THE PENINSULA\r\nAS A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST IT COULD LINGER FOR LONGER THAN THAT.  WHEN IT DOES REACH\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO... CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A\r\nLITTLE RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  WHEN WILMA MOVES FARTHER\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES... A WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED PRIOR TO PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY AS WILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA IS LESS THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY... PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER\r\nYUCATAN.\r\n\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT... AT LEAST FOR NOW...\r\nREGARDING WHERE WILMA WILL PASS OVER FLORIDA... ALTHOUGH THEY COULD\r\nOF COURSE ALL BE WRONG TO SOME DEGREE GIVEN THE 3-4 DAY LEAD TIME. \r\nSIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT REMAINS IN THE TIMING OF THE IMPACT ON\r\nFLORIDA... SO THE WHILE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nINCREASED A LITTLE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE WILMA WILL EVENTUALLY\r\nGO... THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING REMAINS LARGE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 20.6N  86.9W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.9N  87.3W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.2N  87.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.8N  87.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 22.7N  86.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 25.5N  82.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 32.0N  75.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 42.0N  62.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-10-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF WILMA IS SLOWLY MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTHEASTERN COAST\r\nOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  EVEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT THE FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE DECREASING AND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STARTING TO\r\nRISE.  SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE DECREASE IN\r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE WITH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING AND THE\r\nEYE BECOMING CLOUD FILLED.  THERE WAS A SURFACE WIND OF 137 KT FROM\r\nAN EYEWALL DROPSONDE EAST OF THE CENTER AROUND 23Z.  WHILE THIS\r\nSURFACE WIND IS NOT SUPPORTED BY EITHER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OR\r\nTHE NORMAL DROPSONDE ANALYSIS PROCEEDURES...IT AND A COUPLE OF 127\r\nKT SURFACE WINDS FROM EARLIER DROPS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nWILMA MIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER THAN 120 KT THIS AFTERNOON. \r\nBASED ON THIS AND THE DECAY SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 120 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 330/3.  WILMA IS CURRENTLY IN A COL\r\nAREA BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD\r\nMOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR\r\nINTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nTURN THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD WITH GRADUAL ACCELERATION.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WILMA WILL CROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA IN 60-72 HR...ALTHOUGH THE NOGAPS IS STILL A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHICH PART OF\r\nFLORIDA THE CENTER WILL CROSS...WITH THE GFDL AND GFS POINTING MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARDS CHARLOTTE HARBOR...AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF\r\nPOINTING MORE TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE\r\nFIRST 96 HR...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CENTER WILL CROSS FLORIDA...ALL\r\nINTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF WILMA AND MAKE APPROPRIATE PREPARATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  THE FIRST QUESTION IS\r\nHOW STRONG WILL WILMA BE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nA QUESTION COMPLICATED BY THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IT IS\r\nUNDERGOING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL.  SINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR LESS TIME OVER YUCATAN THAN EARLIER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS WILMA EMERGING OVER THE GULF AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER\r\nINTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ONCE OVER THE GULF...THERE\r\nIS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FROM 24-48 HR FOR WILMA TO RE-INTENSIFY\r\nAS IT PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT.  AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER\r\nWILMA...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR WILMA TO REACH 95 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS...AND IT WILL\r\nPROBABLY REACH FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  WILMA SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN DURING AFTER AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nOVER THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 96-120 HR.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 20.8N  86.9W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.2N  87.1W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.7N  87.2W    90 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 22.3N  86.9W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N  85.4W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 35.0N  71.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 45.0N  59.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-10-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND IS BECOMING\r\nLESS DISCERNIBLE ON IR IMAGES....BUT IT REMAINS CLEARLY DEFINED ON\r\nCANCUN RADAR. VERY USEFUL DATA HAS BEEN RECEIVED FROM SEVERAL\r\nMEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC COASTAL STATIONS AROUND YUCATAN.  THE\r\nSTATION LOCATED IN ISLA MUJERES LOCATED OFFSHORE NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEATERN TIP OF YUCATAN HAS BEEN MEASURING MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND\r\n90 KNOTS FOR MORE THAN 9 HOURS. LATEST MAXIMUM WIND AT 06Z WAS 88\r\nKNOTS. BECAUSE THE EYE IS INLAND THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KNOTS. SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS WHILE THE EYE IS\r\nMOVING OVER YUCATAN.  A MODEST STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR ONCE THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVES BACK OVER WATER INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nLATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BEYOND 48 HOURS\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WILMA\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE ATLANTIC AFTER\r\nCROSSING FLORIDA. THE FORECAST INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING\r\nFLORIDA IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH KEEP AN INTENSE\r\nHURRICANE WITH 100 TO 115 KNOTS AND THE SHIPS MODEL THAT RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKENS THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nWILMA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A GRADUAL\r\nNORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST TO AMPLIFY AND FORCE WILMA TO MOVE ON A NORTHEAST TRACK\r\nWITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN A BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT MAKING THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST MORE CERTAIN. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE DEFINITE THAT\r\nHURRICANE WILMA WILL CROSS FLORIDA IN A HURRY ON MONDAY. THE LONGER\r\nTHAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER\r\nFOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE.   \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nAND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL LIKELY BE A CATEGORY ONE OR\r\nTWO AT LANDFALL.  WILMA'S WIND FIELD WILL PROBABLY EXPAND AS IT\r\nCROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY\r\nBE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND\r\nTHE FLORIDA KEYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 20.9N  87.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N  87.3W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N  87.0W   100 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N  86.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 24.5N  83.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 32.0N  74.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 41.0N  64.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 46.0N  54.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF WILMA REMAINS JUST INLAND NEAR CANCUN MEXICO.  WHILE\r\nIT IS NOT MOVING MUCH... THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A NORTHWARD DRIFT\r\nON CANCUN RADAR.  AFTER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE ACTUAL INITIAL\r\nPOSITION... ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA\r\nTO CROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT TWO TO\r\nTHREE DAYS.  AS BEFORE... DESPITE THE AGREEMENT ON WHERE WILMA WILL\r\nGO... THERE IS SOME DISPARITY ON HOW FAST WILMA WILL ACCELERATE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LARGE MIDLATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST... SO THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IN TERMS OF EITHER THE PATH OR THE TIMING.\r\n\r\nWILMA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOME MORE WHILE IT REMAINS JUST INLAND\r\nOVER YUCATAN TODAY.   HOWEVER... THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nIT TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH\r\nINCREASES AND INDUCES A WEAKENING TREND AS WILMA APPROACHES\r\nFLORIDA.  THE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS\r\nQUITE UNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A\r\nCATEGORY ONE OR TWO AT LANDFALL.  THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO\r\nEXPAND AS IT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. \r\nTHEREFORE... THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A\r\nLARGE AREA.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.  A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 21.3N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.7N  87.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  86.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 23.8N  84.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 25.6N  82.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 33.5N  72.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 42.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 47.5N  47.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF WILMA IS JUST ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN TIP\r\nOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE ERRATIC NORTHWARD DRIFT SEEMS TO\r\nHAVE EVOLVED INTO A PERSISENT...ALBEIT SLOW...NORTHWARD MOTION OF\r\nABOUT 2 KT.  A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. \r\nALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST WILMA TO CROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS....WITH THE MOST LIKELY\r\nTIME BEING SOMETIME DURING THE DAY MONDAY.  THE AGREEMENT ON WHAT\r\nPORTION OF THE PENINSULA WILMA WILL CROSS IS A LITTLE LESS THAN IT\r\nWAS ON PREVIOUS CYCLES... AND SOME DISPARITY REMAINS ON HOW FAST\r\nWILMA WILL ACCELERATE.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS NEARLY CERTAIN IT WILL\r\nSPEED UP AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA SOON...SINCE A LARGE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEEPEN... WITH A TROUGH PUSHING WESTERLIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nDESPITE THE MODEL SPREAD... THE LATEST CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS... SO THE PACE OF\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.  ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN APPLIED SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS SHIFTED A TAD\r\nIN THAT DIRECTION.  AFTER PASSAGE OVER FLORIDA...THE FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE NORTH TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 957 MB... NOT TOO MUCH HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER\r\nTODAY.  THE SFMR MEASURED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 77 KT... AND A\r\nDROPSONDE MEASURED 85 KT SURFACE WINDS... WITH THE LATTER BEING THE\r\nBASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nWILMA TO RESTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO... DUE TO WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR... AS SHOWN BY THE\r\nGFDL.  THEREAFTER... WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND AS\r\nWILMA APPROACHES FLORIDA... AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF WILMA WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA REMAINS QUITE\r\nUNCERTAIN... AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT IT WILL BE A CATEGORY\r\nTWO OR THREE AT LANDFALL.  THE WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO EXPAND AS\r\nIT ACCELERATES AND CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY COVER A LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR\r\nTHE FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 21.4N  87.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 21.9N  86.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 23.1N  85.7W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 24.9N  83.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 27.8N  79.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 38.0N  69.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 45.0N  58.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 49.0N  44.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF WILMA HAS MOVED OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  EARLIER REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT SHOWED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 959 MB...WITH MAXIMUM 700\r\nMB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT 30-35 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE\r\nPLANE ALSO REPORTED THE REMAINS OF AN INNER EYEWALL...AND AN OUTER\r\nEYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER VARYING BETWEEN 60-80 N MI.  SINCE THE\r\nCENTER LEFT THE COAST... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME COOLING OF\r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER EYEWALLS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE HAS NOT YET BEEN ENOUGH INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TO JUSTIFY\r\nINCREASING THE WINDS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE\r\nDATA SHOW THAT THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS.  THIS\r\nTROUGH SHOULD TURN WILMA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHR...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE\r\nGENERAL TRACK OF WILMA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHERE IN\r\nFLORIDA THE CENTER WILL MAKE LANDFALL.  THE 18Z GFS IS WELL TO THE\r\nLEFT...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL NEAR CHARLOTTE HARBOR...WHILE THE 12Z \r\nECMWF IS WELL TO THE RIGHT...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO CROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA KEYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\n18Z GFDL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  WILMA\r\nSHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHEAST ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC...\r\nAND EVENTUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AT HIGH LATITUDE AFTER 96 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  WILMA IS\r\nCURRENTLY TRYING TO FINISH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT BEGAN\r\nALMOST 48 HR AGO.  THE LARGE SIZE OF THE OUTER EYEWALL ARGUES\r\nAGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING...EVEN THOUGH THE EYE WILL BE CROSSING\r\nTHE LOOP CURRENT.  AFTER 24 HR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND REPORTS FROM THE NOAA G4 JET SHOW THAT\r\nDEEP-LAYER DRY AIR IS LURKING JUST WEST OF WILMA AND COULD BE\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE STORM NEAR THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nGFDL CONTINUES TO CALL FOR STRENGTHENING...BRINGING THE STORM TO 95\r\nKT NEAR LANDFALL IN FLORIDA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFDL AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING\r\nWILMA TO 100 KT IN 24 HR AND THEN WEAKENING A LITTLE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO\r\nHURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A\r\nCATEGORY THREE.  AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD QUICKLY\r\nWEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA...NEW WARNING AND WATCHES HAVE\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAHAMAS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 21.8N  86.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N  86.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 24.0N  84.6W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  81.5W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  77.0W    75 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 41.0N  66.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 46.0N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 46.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT\r\nWILMA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...AROUND 045/03.  A LARGE AND\r\nSTRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES...WILL CAUSE THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW\r\nFOR WILMA TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN\r\n24-36 HOURS.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME\r\nSPREAD...WITH THE GFS BEING THE NORTHERNMOST AND NORTH OF LAKE\r\nOKEECHOBEE....AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE\r\nNEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.   \r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE OF\r\nWILMA...WHICH WAS DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS\r\nBECOMING SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED.  HOWEVER THE EYE IS STILL QUITE\r\nLARGE...ABOUT 65 N MI ACROSS...AND RAGGED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE HURRICANE EMERGED FROM NORTHEAST\r\nYUCATAN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 85 KT IS BASED ON PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SOME\r\nRESPECT FOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED ALONG A NNE-SSW AXIS WITH MOST\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THIS MAY BE A HARBINGER OF INCREASING SHEAR...BUT IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT WILMA'S INNER CORE WILL BE ABLE TO AT LEAST\r\nTEMPORARILY REDEVELOP...AND THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR\r\nTODAY.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE\r\nIN VERTICAL SHEAR WILL OCCUR AS WILMA NEARS THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA... WHICH...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER\r\nLOWER-LEVEL AIR... WOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.  SINCE THE TROUGH\r\nINTERACTING WITH WILMA IS QUITE STRONG...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT A RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE BY ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 22.1N  86.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N  85.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 24.7N  83.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.4N  79.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 32.5N  74.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 43.0N  66.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 47.5N  59.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 49.0N  49.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 7\r\nKT... WHICH IS A MERE PREVIEW OF THE GRADUAL ACCELERATION EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY\r\nSITUATED ROUGHLY OVER IOWA IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO\r\nMOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL\r\nDEEPEN SOME AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE WESTERLIES OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO... WHICH WILL PUSH WILMA NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING\r\nPACE. THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE FLORIDA\r\nLANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE PENINSULA... BUT STILL WITH\r\nSOME VARIATION IN BOTH THE SPEED AND PATH. THE GFDL IS THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION... AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE PERHAPS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH AND ARE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH WITH NEGLIGIBLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE TIMING... AND IT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON\r\nTHE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND\r\nFIELD... AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE LAST RECON FIX AT ABOUT 12Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE 961\r\nMB... WHICH HAD REMAINED STEADY FOR SEVERAL HOURS. THE NEXT\r\nAIRCRAFT IS ALMOST IN THE CENTER AT THIS HOUR AND WILL PROVIDE\r\nUPDATES ON THE PRESSURE AND WINDS. FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 85 KT GIVEN THE LIMITED CHANGES IN STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY... AND 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90\r\nKT. INNER CORE CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION DO SEEM TO BE ON A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE.  AS WILMA PASSES OVER THE LOOP CURRENT\r\nTODAY...AND WHILE THE WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH... SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18\r\nHOURS... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS A STEADY WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL... ALTHOUGH IT MIGHT BE\r\nOVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IT\r\nDOES APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL AND AS WILMA CROSSES FLORIDA... SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL. WHILE THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nOF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS CATEGORY TWO...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nWILMA COULD REACH FLORIDA AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 22.7N  85.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 23.7N  84.5W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 25.8N  81.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.5N  77.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 35.1N  72.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 45.0N  64.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 48.5N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 50.0N  45.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH...RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LESS\r\nLIKELY THAN GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...\r\n \r\nWILMA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nHEADING...WITH CURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT...AND IT WILL PROBABLY\r\nBE MOVING TWICE AS FAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC OCEAN\r\nOFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES IS PROGRESSING TO THE\r\nEAST AS THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING... AND IT SHOULD REACH THE\r\nGREAT LAKES TOMORROW.  MEANWHILE AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL DEEPEN AND ENHANCE THE WESTERLIES\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...BRINGING WILMA OVER FLORIDA.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN EVEN TIGHTER AGREEMENT NOW THAT THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL FORCE THE CENTER OF WILMA TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA... BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TIMING. \r\nHOWEVER... THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH.  AS A RESULT... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING THE\r\nCENTER TO THE COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  DESPITE THE GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON WHERE WILMA WILL GO...IT REMAINS\r\nIMPORTANT TO STRESS THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK SINCE WILMA HAS A LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD... AND\r\nSIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nBOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN\r\nPROVIDING DATA FROM WILMA THIS AFTERNOON... AND THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY FALLING... MOST RECENTLY TO 959 MB. \r\nGIVEN THE LOWERING PRESSURE... SFMR WINDS AS STRONG AS 87 KT... AND\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 100 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KT.  IT APPEARS THAT WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK\r\nENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UP\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL... AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL.  RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE SIZE OF\r\nTHE EYE AND A LACK OF TIME FOR IT TO CONTRACT BEFORE LANDFALL IN\r\nFLORIDA.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A STEADY\r\nWEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR.  HOWEVER...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT REVEAL ANY OBVIOUS SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR\r\nIS YET STRONG ENOUGH TO REVERSE THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING\r\nTREND...AND IT MIGHT NOT INCREASE IN TIME TO INDUCE A WEAKENING\r\nTREND BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF LANDFALL INTENSITY IS\r\nCATEGORY TWO...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WILMA COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY\r\nTHREE INTENSITY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 23.5N  84.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 24.8N  83.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 27.6N  79.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 32.2N  74.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 38.5N  68.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 46.5N  61.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 49.0N  53.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 50.0N  42.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":35,"Date":"2005-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n\r\nWILMA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING WITH THE\r\nLARGE 45 NMI DIAMETER BECOMING VERY DISTINCT IN BOTH SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR IMAGERY. AIR FORCE RECON FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n114 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0104Z... WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 103\r\nKT SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM KEY WEST HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nAS HIGH AS 109 KT AT 12000 FT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED\r\nTO 958 MB... OR ABOUT 104 KT USING A STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND\r\nRELATIONSHIP. BASED ON THIS WIND INFORMATION AND THE CONTINUED\r\nINCREASE IN THE EYEWALL CONVECTION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 100 KT... OR CATEGORY THREE/MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS. A RECON VORTEX MESSAGE JUST HANDED TO ME NOW\r\nINDICATES THE PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 957 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/16. DUE TO A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TILT... THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED ABOUT ONE-TENTH OF A DEGREE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE RECON POSITIONS. WILMA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED BY 4 KT\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND CONTINUED ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA WILL LIKELY BE MOVING AT FORWARD\r\nSPEEDS OF 20 KT OR GREATER WHEN IT REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA\r\nCOAST AND CROSSES OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK... SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE OTHER THAN TO INCREASE\r\nFORWARD SPEED AT ALL TIMES... ESPECIALLY AFTER WILMA EMERGES OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN THE SHORT TERM... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...\r\n00Z UPPER-AIR DATA... AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. HAS\r\nEXTENDED ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE NOW IMPINGING ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF WILMA... SO A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA SEEMS\r\nLIKELY. THEREFORE... A TRACK FROM COLLIER COUNTY TO NEAR LAKE\r\nOKEECHOBEE AND EXITING PALM BEACH COUNTY DURING THE NEXT 18 HOURS\r\nSEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT WILMA HAS A 40-50 NMI\r\nDIAMETER EYE... HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM\r\nWHERE THE EXACT CENTER PASSES. IN THE LONGER TERM... ONCE WILMA\r\nEMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE DIGGING SHARPLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD ACT TO LIFT WILMA RAPIDLY NORTHEAST\r\nTO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OFF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST... WITH A POSSIBLE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURRING\r\nOVER NOVA SCOTIA AS A POWERFUL AND VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST... AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT WILMA HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD... THE EFFECTS OF ANY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMIZED RIGHT UP UNTIL THE HURRICANE\r\nREACHES THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHE DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS SHOULD REMAIN INTACT UNTIL WILMA REACHES\r\nTHE ATLANTIC OCEAN... WHICH FAVOR AT LEAST SUSTAINING THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY. EYES THIS LARGE ARE ALSO MORE STABLE AND ARE MORE\r\nRESISTANT TO VERTICAL SHEAR. AS SUCH... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST EARLY\r\nMONDAY MORNING.  HOWEVER... ANOTHER 5-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY MAY\r\nOCCUR WHILE WILMA REMAINS OVER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GULF LOOP\r\nCURRENT. GIVEN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED AS WILMA TRAVERSES\r\nTHE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... LESS WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS\r\nCOMPARED TO TYPICAL HURRICANES MOVING OVER LAND. THEREFORE... WILMA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE\r\nFLORIDA EAST COAST. AFTER EMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC... INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT AND MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN WILMA TRANSITIONING INTO A SIGNIFICANT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL WINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM... WHICH MAY PRODUCE A LARGE\r\nGALE AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM THAT COULD AFFECT PORTIONS\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 24.4N  83.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.2N  81.2W   100 KT...INLAND SWRN FLORIDA\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 30.2N  76.3W    75 KT...OVER ATLANTIC\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 36.5N  69.9W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 42.9N  64.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 48.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 49.5N  49.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 50.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":36,"Date":"2005-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n\r\nIN SPITE OF ITS VERY LARGE RAGGED EYE...WILMA HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nINTENSIFY AND BASED ON DOPPLER AND AIRCRAFT DATA...IT IS NOW A\r\nHIGH-END CAT. 3...110-KT...HURRICANE.  AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nWERE AS HIGH AS 135 KT EARLIER BUT DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT THESE WINDS WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH TRANSIENT\r\nMESOSCALE FEATURES.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL.  AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD\r\nTRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nRECON AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS ABOUT 050/17. \r\nACCELERATION IS FORECAST AS WILMA IS BECOMING CAUGHT IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVEMENTIONED TROUGH. \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST AND DIVERGE THEREAFTER AS THE MODELS\r\nDISAGREE ON HOW WILMA WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGHER LATITUDE FLOW. \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE\r\nOVER THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE LATTER PART OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES WILMA INLAND IN A FEW HOURS.  PEOPLE IN\r\nSOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE\r\nSTORM SURGES ARE OCCURRING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...PARTICULARLY\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 25.5N  82.4W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 27.9N  79.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 32.9N  73.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 39.0N  66.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 44.0N  60.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 47.5N  51.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 48.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 48.0N  29.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":37,"Date":"2005-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n \r\nTHE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF WILMA IS NOW MOVING OFF THE\r\nCOAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH.  HOWEVER...THE EYE\r\nREMAINS QUITE LARGE AND COMPLETELY INTACT... EVEN ON THE WEST OR\r\nBACK SIDE THAT IS STILL OVER THE PENINSULA.  SOME INLAND AREAS HAVE\r\nBEEN EXPERIENCING A RELATIVE CALM PERIOD... BUT ONE THAT IS FAIRLY\r\nSHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE FAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 22 KT. \r\nWINDS IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL REMAIN JUST ABOUT AS STRONG AS ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE.  NWS MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR VELOCITIES STILL INDICATE WINDS\r\nNEAR 120 KT AT ABOUT 5000 FT OVER LAND.  EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE\r\nPROBABLY STILL OCCURRING OVER WATER... AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY TO 90 KT.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT FLORIDA\r\nINDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS LARGE... AND NONE OF THE WARNINGS FOR\r\nTHE FLORIDA PENINSULA CAN YET BE DISCONTINUED.  ONLY A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WILMA SHOULD\r\nTRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO\r\nAS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ESSENTIALLY\r\nJUST UPDATES OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... EXCEPT TO SPEED UP THE\r\nFORECAST SLIGHTLY TO KEEP UP WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 26.9N  80.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 30.3N  75.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 36.1N  68.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 42.1N  61.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 44.9N  55.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 46.5N  44.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 47.5N  36.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 49.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":38,"Date":"2005-10-24 18:30:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n230 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY FOR WILMA.  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D\r\nRADAR DATA...AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT...INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MB OF ABOUT 120-125 KT IN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EYEWALL.  SINCE THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO NOW\r\nASSUME THESE WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 100 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE. \r\nIT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS RESTRENGTHENING WAS SIMPLY DUE TO\r\nREDUCTION OF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ONCE THE EYEWALL EMERGED OVER\r\nWATER...OR IF THE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL STRENGTHENED SOME TIME AFTER\r\nREACHING THE ATLANTIC...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM.  BOTH FACTORS LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS VALID AT 12 AND 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE. \r\nNO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1830Z 28.1N  78.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 30.3N  75.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 36.1N  68.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 42.1N  61.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 44.9N  55.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 46.5N  44.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 47.5N  36.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 49.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":39,"Date":"2005-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE PASSING OVER FLORIDA.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 132 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 105 KT SURFACE\r\nWINDS...PROVIDING THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE\r\nHURRICANE ALSO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW RACING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 32 KT.  WHEN WILMA TRANSFORMS INTO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT CERTAIN.  IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO KEEP\r\nFROM BECOMING TOO ENTANGLED WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES FOR 24 HOURS OR MORE WHILE RUNNING\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.  WILMA HAS BEEN RATHER RESISTANT\r\nTODAY IN ALLOWING ITS INNER CORE TO BE DISRUPTED...AND IT COULD\r\nMAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HOLD ON TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS WELL INTO TOMORROW.  SHORTLY THEREAFTER IT SHOULD\r\nMAKE THE TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL...BUT REGARDLESS OF WHEN THAT\r\nDESIGNATION IS MADE...A LARGE AND STRONG CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE THE\r\nWESTERN AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT FORECAST THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM TO TURN MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 29.0N  77.4W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 33.1N  72.6W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 39.4N  65.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 43.1N  58.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 45.0N  53.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 46.1N  42.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 47.5N  33.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 51.5N  22.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":40,"Date":"2005-10-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n \r\nWILMA'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... AND\r\nTHE DIAMETER HAS DECREASED FROM 60 NMI DOWN TO 40 NMI. THE EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION HAS ALSO INCREASED WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -75 TO\r\n-80C NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. AT 24/2001Z... AN AIR FORCE RECON\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED 136-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SOUTH\r\nQUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME... BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL CONVECTION\r\nHAVE IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY... AND USING AN 80 PERCENT REDUCTION\r\nFACTOR YIELDS ABOUT 109 KT SURFACE WINDS. IN ADDITION... DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77KT. ADDING THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nOF WILMA TO THE T-NUMBERS SUPPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 110 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/41. WILMA IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG DIGGING\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.\r\nBETWEEN 36-48 HOURS... THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF\r\nWILMA IS EXPECTED TO FORCE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND... AFTER WHICH\r\nA STEADY EASTWARD MOTION OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nOCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nWILMA HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 18 HOURS OR SO OVER 26C AND WARMER SSTS\r\nAHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AT 71 KT BY 24 HOURS...\r\nTHE RAPID MOTION AND LARGE SIZE OF THE WILMA'S CIRCULATION SHOULD\r\nOFFSET THESE OTHERWISE VERY ADVERSE CONDITIONS... AND ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO REMAIN A HURRICANE UNTIL MUCH COOLER WATER IS REACHED BY\r\nOR SHORTLY AFTER THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH WILMA WILL\r\nLIKELY LOSE MUCH IF NOT ALL OF ITS CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION BY 36\r\nHOURS... THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL NOT SPIN DOWN VERY QUICKLY...\r\nWHICH MEANS THAT WILMA SHOULD REMAIN A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nWINTER-TYPE STORM SYSTEM AT 48-120 HR OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 31.6N  74.3W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 36.1N  68.9W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 41.2N  61.3W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 44.0N  56.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 46.1N  51.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 47.0N  44.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 47.5N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 51.5N  23.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":41,"Date":"2005-10-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF WILMA IS BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE\r\nEYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS\r\nSYMMETRIC.  THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX NEAR 00Z WAS ABOUT 40 MILES TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE SATELLITE EYE AND AN SSMI PASS AT 0136Z ALSO\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE DECOUPLING.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.  THIS WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE AND WILMA SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER\r\nROUGHLY 20C WATERS IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST OF WILMA AND ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS IS NOT\r\nSTRAIGHTFORWARD.  IN THE SHORT TERM...WILMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nBRISKLY NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED COULD BE SLOWER\r\nTHAN SHOWN BELOW SHOULD THE VORTEX SHEAR OUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN\r\nANTICIPATED.  GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSE TO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS VORTEX TRACKERS ARE CONFUSING WILMA WITH THIS\r\nDEVELOPING CYCLONE...WHICH CONTAMINATES THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL ROTATES WILMA CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE NEW LOW INTO THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES IN 24-36 HOURS.  THE GFS MAINTAINS WILMA AS A\r\nSEPARATE ENTITY TO THE EAST OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND THIS IS\r\nTHE SOLUTION PREFERRED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SHOULD WILMA\r\nCOMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HOWEVER...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF WILMA IS LIKELY TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nDEVELOPING CYCLONE AND NOT SURVIVE MORE THAN 36-48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 34.8N  70.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 38.9N  64.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 43.0N  57.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 45.0N  51.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 46.0N  45.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 46.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 47.0N  23.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 55.0N  20.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":42,"Date":"2005-10-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005\r\n \r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILMA IS WEAKENING AND\r\nBEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT\r\n1117Z SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NORTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY\r\nCONVECTION...WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR CLOUDS SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  WILMA SHOULD MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR...WHICH SHOULD FINISH OFF THE REMAINING CENTRAL CONVECTION\r\nAND THE REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nLIKE TO LOSE WILMA IN THE WARM FRONT OF A BAROCLINIC LOW CENTERED\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN LESS THAN 72\r\nHR.  GIVE THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY LAST A BIT\r\nLONGER THAN THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY RAPID 045/046.  ASSUMING WILMA IS NOT\r\nABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC LOW...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE EASTWARD OVER THE TOP OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC THROUGH 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 38.5N  66.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 42.3N  60.0W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 44.9N  54.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 46.0N  47.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 46.0N  40.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 46.0N  30.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 50.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Wilma","Adv":43,"Date":"2005-10-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE...INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WILMA IS\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nWELL NORTHWEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION...WHICH MAY BE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APEPARS\r\nTO BE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM\r\nA LOW OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND COLD\r\nAIR AND A COLD FRONT ARE PRESENT SOUTHEAST OF WILMA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY FROM TAFB AND\r\nRESPECT FOR THE RAPID MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/46.  WILMA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AT A\r\nREDUCED FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN 72-96 HR.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS LOSE WILMA FASTER THAN THIS...SO THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON WILMA FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE WARNINGS AND INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE\r\nFOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER\r\nIN WASHINGTON D. C. UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC AND AWIPS HEADER\r\nHSFAT1.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 41.7N  62.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 44.5N  57.9W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 46.0N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 46.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 46.0N  34.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 46.0N  26.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN HAS DEVELOPED WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND A CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nWITH -80C COLD TOPS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF A CENTRAL\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION. NWS/SAN JUAN RADAR ALSO REVEALS FAIRLY\r\nWELL-DEFINED ROTATION. ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON\r\nTHE SEASON'S 25TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE TREND\r\nTOWARD INCREASED ORGANIZATION... MORE THAN LIKELY THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTO 45 OR 50 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE\r\nIN WESTERLY SHEAR SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL EITHER DISSIPATE OR BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE\r\nBAROCLINIC SYSTEM WHICH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH WILMA.\r\nTHE FORECAST WILL REFLECT ABSORPTION INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY\r\n4.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11. A LOW- TO MID- LAYER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS... AHEAD AND EAST OF THE APPROACHING HURRICANE WILMA AND A\r\nMID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE\r\nTURKS AND CAICOS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED... WITH AN EVENTUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAHEAD OF WILMA AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE MID- LAYER MEAN GFS BAM.\r\n\r\nTHE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nWITH THE REGULAR LIST OF NAMES EXHAUSTED... WE WOULD UTILIZE THE\r\nGREEK ALPHABET SHOULD THE DEPRESSION REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nTHE FIRST NAME ON THIS LIST IS ALPHA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 16.1N  68.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.9N  69.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.2N  71.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N  72.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 24.9N  72.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 36.3N  62.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alpha","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005\r\n\r\nA 1500Z TRMM COMPOSITE PASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER NEAR 16.3N 67.9W WITH A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BANDING FEATURE.\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS\r\nEVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM ALL\r\nTHREE AGENCIES WERE 2.0/2.0...AND MOREOVER THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO IMPROVED SINCE THAT TIME. AT 18Z...A SHIP REPORT FROM\r\nC6FN4 HAD A 22 KNOT SOUTHWEST WIND ABOUT 30 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER WITH A 1007 MB PRESSURE. BASED UPON THE ABOVE INFORMATION\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALPHA. ALPHA IS THE\r\nTWENTY-SECOND NAMED STORM THIS SEASON AND OVERALL MAKES THE 2005\r\nHURRICANE SEASON THE MOST ACTIVE ON RECORD. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/13. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHE STORM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-\r\nTO MID-LAYER RIDGE. ALPHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...THEN\r\nRECURVE TO THE NORTHE AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA AND\r\nTHE LARGE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH FORMING OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALPHA BEING\r\nABSORBED BY THE TROUGH IN 96 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.  \r\n\r\nALPHA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS PRIOR TO\r\nMAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AFTER\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOME BRIEF RE-INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER SYSTEM\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING OVER HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 17.0N  68.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 18.3N  70.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 20.8N  71.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 23.6N  71.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 28.5N  70.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 38.0N  61.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alpha","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005\r\n \r\nHALF OF AN EYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE WAS VISIBLE ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AS\r\nALPHA WAS MOVING OUT OF RANGE A COUPLE HOURS AGO...WITH SIMILAR\r\nROTATION BRIEFLY OBSERVED WITHIN THE VERY COLD TOPS OF ITS CORE\r\nCONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE NO HIGHER\r\nTHAN 35 KT AT 00Z...THE RADAR SIGNATURE SUGGESTS THAT ALPHA COULD\r\nHAVE A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONGER WINDS AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING RAISED TO 45 KT. A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nIN THE 6 OR SO HOURS BEFORE ALPHA REACHES HISPANIOLA. ALPHA'S SMALL\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nHISPANIOLA...AND IS IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE AS\r\nIT CROSSES THE ISLAND. ASSUMING THAT IT SURVIVES INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC...ALPHA WILL FIND ITSELF IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS\r\nIT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE WILMA IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS...AND EVEN THOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING A CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE\r\nCIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE\r\nWILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE ASSUMPTION\r\nTHAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER CIRCULATIONS MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.\r\n  \r\nALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 17.7N  70.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.9N  71.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N  72.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  73.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN CIRCULATION OF WILMA\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alpha","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n \r\nALPHA DEVELOPED SOME MODEST BANDING AROUND 6Z...AND THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB CAUGHT UP WITH THE ADVISORY VALUE OF\r\n45 KT.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS ALREADY DEGRADING HOWEVER AS THE\r\nCENTER IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN HISPANIOLA.  ALTHOUGH SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AT BARAHONA AND SANTO DOMINGO INDICATE THAT ALPHA HAS\r\nPROBABLY WEAKENED...I WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT TO\r\nBE ON THE SAFE SIDE.  GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE IT SURVIVING THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AHEAD OF IT.  ASSUMING THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT\r\nON THE OTHER SIDE...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF\r\nWILMA IS LIKELY TO MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ALPHA TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY ALPHA IN\r\nTHE ATLANTIC IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW ANYTHING RESEMBLING A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CARRY ALPHA FOR 36 HOURS BUT I EXPECT IT TO\r\nDISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  ALPHA IS NEARING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE\r\nWILMA APPROACHES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALPHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND ACCELERATE.  THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKERS ARE LOCKING ON\r\nTO THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...WHICH IS A DEGREE OR TWO TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN THE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRIES TO FOLLOW THE SURFACE CENTER...AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE\r\nTO THE MEDIUM BAM.\r\n \r\nALPHA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A STRONG LIKLIHOOD OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD-SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 18.1N  71.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 20.1N  72.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N  73.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  73.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alpha","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND GOOD OUTFLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOST LIKELY HAS\r\nBECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND IS VERY\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD BE ANYWHERE\r\nWITHIN 75 N MI FROM THE POSITION GIVEN IN THE ADVISORY AND IS BASED\r\nON A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM HAITI. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.\r\nHISTORICALLY...IT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO\r\nRECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA.\r\nBECAUSE THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LOW\r\nSHEAR...WE ARE SHOWING A VERY MODEST STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES BACK OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE WE DO NOT EXACTLY THE\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER...BUT ALPHA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS\r\nEXPECTED AND ALPHA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 19.2N  72.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  73.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 24.0N  74.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  73.5W    30 KT...ABSORBED BY WILMA\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alpha","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n \r\nIT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF THERE WAS A SURFACE CIRCULATION OR NOT\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA AND I WAS\r\nTEMPTED TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A NEW AREA OF CIRCULAR\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF HAITI NEAR THE POSSIBLE\r\nCENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. WE ARE\r\nFOLLOWING THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD MASS WHICH IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS IN THE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF WILMA.  BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nBACK OVER WATER...A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AND ALPHA\r\nCOULD TEMPORARILY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST\r\nLIKELY THE DEPRESSION WILL INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF WILMA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 20.6N  72.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 22.8N  73.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N  73.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.5N  71.0W    30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alpha","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-10-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALPHA REMAINS A BIT ELUSIVE\r\nSINCE EMERGING FROM HISPANIOLA EARLIER TODAY BUT IT IS ASSUMED TO BE\r\nWITHIN THE PERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.\r\nTHIS YIELDS A SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OF\r\n360/18...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF WILMA.  GIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF THIS\r\nCONVECTIVE AREA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS AND IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS AND SHIP ZCDG8 WHICH RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED 29 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHALLENGING.  ON ONE\r\nHAND...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOW COMPLETELY OVER WATER.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE RAPIDLY\r\nOVERTAKEN BY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH WILMA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THIS\r\nINTERACTIONS WILL BEGIN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER AND KEEPS ALPHA AS\r\nA DEPRESSION UNTIL IT BECOMES COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION OF WILMA IN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 22.5N  72.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 25.1N  72.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.4N  70.9W    30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY WILMA\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alpha","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-10-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/20. SHIP PBIG 05Z WITH A\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST WIND AND A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER HELPED WITH DETERMINING THE POSITION OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ALPHA FOR THIS ADVISORY.  OTHER SURROUNDING SHIPS...\r\nALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY... INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST. THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT ALPHA MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY\r\nMUCH LARGER HURRICANE WILMA AFTER 24 HOURS. UNTIL MERGER WITH WILMA\r\nOR DISSIPATION OCCURS... THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHWARD...\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SMALL\r\nDEPRESSION GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF HURRICANE WILMA'S CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nLITTLE IF ANY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG OUTFLOW CREATED\r\nBY MAJOR HURRICANE WILMA. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO THE SHIPS MODEL...\r\nWHICH BRINGS ALPHA UP TO 66 KT IN 84 HOURS... AND THE GFDL MODEL...\r\nWHICH BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 24.4N  73.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 28.5N  72.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 34.7N  70.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alpha","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-10-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n \r\nALPHA CONTINUES TO SHOW CURVED LOW CLOUD LINES WITH A PATCH OF\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER.  HOWEVER...\r\nMORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DO NOT DEFINITIVELY SHOW A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF\r\nHURRICANE WILMA.  THIS ADVISORY WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION DOES NOT BECOME\r\nMORE APPARENT...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/17.  ALPHA SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HR BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY THE\r\nLARGER AND MORE POWERFUL WILMA APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 25.9N  72.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N  70.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE WILMA\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alpha","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-10-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT ALPHA\r\nNO LONGER HAS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE REMNANT VORTICITY\r\nCENTER...A SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...IS MOVING 025/25 AND WILL\r\nCONTINUE A RAPID NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY\r\nHURRICANE WILMA IN 12-24 HR.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 29.0N  70.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE\r\nANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION. CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED AT 315/03. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND ONLY A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF\r\nNICARAGUA IS ANTICIPATED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL NEVER GET OUT THAT AREA BEFORE DISSIPATION INLAND OVER CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA. THIS IS VERY REALISTIC SOLUTION.  HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION\r\nOVER WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STRENGTHENING\r\nAS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF\r\nNICARAGUA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL\r\nWHICH MAKES THE DEPRESSION A 94-KNOT HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER SAN ANDRES AND\r\nPROVIDENCIA ISLANDS ON THURSDAY. WE WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN\r\nCONTACTING THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE TO COORDINATE THE\r\nWARNINGS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 11.1N  81.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 11.5N  82.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.5N  82.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.0N  83.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005\r\n \r\nAS OFTEN OCCURS AS A DEPRESSION EVOLVES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE\r\nOUTER BANDS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE\r\nONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nAPPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS\r\nHAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...\r\nMAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005\r\nSEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT IS BEING PROVIDED BY\r\nWEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... IN BETWEEN A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED A DISTANT 2000 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO\r\nDEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO\r\nEVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS\r\nSUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.  OVERALL THE\r\nMODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND NONE\r\nOF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nOCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING... WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 29 CELSIUS\r\nAND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETA COULD BE\r\nNEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF IT HAS NOT YET MADE\r\nLANDFALL... AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON SHIPS\r\nINDICATES NEARLY A 50/50 SHOT AT 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECASTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION...TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.  SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST KEEPS BETA OVER WATER LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND GIVEN THE VERY BULLISH GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE\r\nBY THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THE NICARAGUAN COAST.  FURTHER... SINCE\r\nTHE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN\r\nTHE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE\r\nNOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 11.4N  81.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 11.8N  82.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.5N  82.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.8N  83.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.0N  83.6W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.0N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005\r\n \r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BETA AS A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nWITH SOME OUTER BANDING IN BOTH THE EAST AND WEST QUADRANTS...WITH\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATING CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.  A RECENT SSM/I\r\nOVERPASS SHOWS AN SMALL EYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE CDO.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF BETA IS SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/2. \r\nBETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED\r\nBY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS THAT AFTER A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS\r\nTHROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND ALLOW WEAK RIDGING TO\r\nBUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD\r\nCAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION.  ALL THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS EXCEPT THE CANADIAN...WHICH HAS HAD A NORTHWARD BIAS IN\r\nSIMILAR SITUATIONS...FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK NOW CALLS FOR\r\nLANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 72 TO 96 HR.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SMALL EYEWALL AND GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...\r\nBETA APPEARS SET UP FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  INDEED...THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 56\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INCREASE QUITE THAT\r\nMUCH...BUT DOES SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72\r\nHR SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE GFDL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY NEED TO\r\nBE REVISED SIGNIFICANTLY UPWARD IN THE NEXT ADVISORY IF CURRENT\r\nTRENDS CONTINUE.  ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM\r\nWATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE\r\nSLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD\r\nWATER.  HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR\r\nMORE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 11.5N  81.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 11.9N  81.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 12.4N  81.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 12.9N  81.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.3N  82.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 13.5N  83.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 13.5N  84.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 13.0N  86.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005\r\n \r\nBETA REMAINS A SMALL AND WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nPATTERN SEEN THIS MORNING HAS BECOME MORE OF A CURVED BAND\r\nPATTERN...WITH INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING TOPS OF -75C TO -80C.  AN\r\nAMSU OVERPASS AT 1547Z SHOWED A BANDING EYE UNDERNEATH THE\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/3.  BETA IS DRIFTING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AFTER A\r\nSERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH IN\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HR...THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND\r\nALLOW A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.\r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nWITH THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN...AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALLING FOR A MORE GRADUAL WESTWARD\r\nTURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND IS JUST\r\nEAST AND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TWO\r\nMODELS WHICH BRING BETA NORTHWARD TOWARD CUBA AND FLORIDA...LBAR\r\nAND THE CANADIAN...HAVE SHOWN A NORTHWARD BIAS IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR\r\nSITUATIONS.  THEREFORE...WHILE NOT BEING RULED OUT AS POSSIBILITIES\r\nTHEY ARE BEING GIVEN LITTLE WEIGHT AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...\r\nWITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHOWING A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR GREATER STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nTHIS...MAKING BETA A HURRICANE IN JUST OVER 12 HR AND A 75 KT\r\nSYSTEM IN 24 HR.  ONE POSSIBLE RESTRAINING FACTOR IS THAT THE WARM\r\nWATER OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THE\r\nSLOW MOTION OF BETA WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME UPWELLING OF COLD\r\nWATER.  HOWEVER...THE EFFECTS OF THIS MAY NOT BE FELT FOR 24 HR OR\r\nMORE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT\r\nRATE AFTER 24 HR BASED ON THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT\r\nBE ANY SURPRISE IF BETA GOT STRONGER AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. \r\nAFTER LANDFALL...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN..ESPECIALLY WHEN IT REACHES THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE RAINFALL CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BETA IS OFFSHORE. \r\nONCE THE STORM COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING THE RAINS\r\nONSHORE...FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WILL BECOME SERIOUS THREATS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 11.7N  81.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.1N  81.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 12.6N  81.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.0N  82.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 13.3N  82.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 13.5N  83.5W    95 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 13.5N  85.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 13.0N  87.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT THU OCT 27 2005\r\n \r\nBETA IS DEFINITELY NOT INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY TONIGHT.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS ONLY A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. SSM/I MICROWAVE DATA AT 2344Z CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW A HINT OF AN EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED MODESTLY TO 55 KNOTS. BETA IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL STORM\r\nAND BASED ON SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS FROM SAN ANDRES\r\nPROVIDED BY THE COLOMBIAN WEATHER SERVICE...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WIND RADII HAS BEEN REDUCED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\nSURFACE WINDS AT SAN ANDRES NEAR 00Z WERE ONLY 11 KNOTS...AND THE\r\nCENTER OF BETA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THAT LOCATION.\r\nTHESE WINDS WERE CONFIRMED BY THE OBSERVER ON THE ISLAND.\r\nHOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR BETA TO\r\nINTENSIFY STEADILY UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN FACT...THE\r\nRELIABLE GFDL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 100 KNOTS AT LANDFALL AND SHIPS\r\nTO 90 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nBETA HAS CONTINUED CREEPING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS. DESPITE THE\r\nCURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE TONIGHT THAT\r\nBETA WILL REMAIN STUCK IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN OR OVER CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AND FLORIDA.  THIS HIGH HAS BEEN A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE\r\nAND HAS STEERED OTHER CYCLONES TOWARD FLORIDA THIS YEAR...BUT IN\r\nTHIS CASE IT WILL STEER THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES.\r\nHOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL NOT SAVE NICARAGUA AND OTHER PORTIONS OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE CYCLONE. THE HIGH SHOULD FORCE BETA\r\nWESTWARD TOWARD THE NICARAGUAN EAST COAST AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nTHE GFDL. ONLY THE CANADIAN MODEL BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD\r\nTOWARD CUBA AND THE UK TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOST LIKELY THESE\r\nTWO MODELS WILL CHANGE THEIR TUNE IN THE NEXT RUN. WE SHALL SEE. \r\n\r\nIF BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST VERIFY...BETA WILL LIKELY\r\nBE A VERY SERIOUS HURRICANE PRIMARILY FOR NICARAGUA PRODUCING \r\nCONSIDERABLE DAMAGE FROM BOTH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 12.1N  81.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  81.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N  81.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 13.5N  82.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 13.5N  83.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 13.5N  85.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 13.5N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAD BEEN ON THE WANE... BUT DURING THE PAST\r\nHOUR OR SO BETA HAS BEEN MAKING A SLIGHT COMEBACK. A STRONG BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION... ALBEIT A SMALL AREA... HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND\r\nCOLDER. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z REVEALED A\r\nPRONOUNCED BUT SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. HOWEVER... A 28/0110Z\r\nSSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED THE EYE FEATURE HAD BEEN DISRUPTED BY SOME\r\nEASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE\r\nFAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65\r\nKT FROM TAFB... T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB... AND T3.0/45 KT FROM AFWA. A\r\n27/2300Z QUIKSCAT HI-RES OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED NO WIND VECTORS...\r\nFLAGGED AND UNFLAGGED... HIGHER THAN 40 KT. HOWEVER... THE VERY\r\nSMALL INNER CORE NOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA WOULD LIKELY BE\r\nUNDERSAMPLED BY QUIKSCAT. GIVEN THE DISRUPTION OF THE EYE FEATURE\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A STEADY 360/03 FOR THE PAST 14 HOURS...\r\nAND THAT IS THE MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS LESS THAN STRAIGHTFORWARD. FIRST... A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 350 NMI NORTHEAST OF BETA HAS DEVELOPED SOME\r\nIMPRESSIVE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION... WHICH WILL LIKELY\r\nSTRENGTHEN THAT SYSTEM AND RESULT IN SOME POSSIBLE BINARY\r\nINTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM THAT THE 28/00Z NAM ALLUDED TO.\r\nSECOND... THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL SUITE. THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...GFS ENSEMBLE... AND ECMWF MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ON A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IMMEDIATELY FROM THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION. IN CONTRAST... THE UKMET...CANADIAN...\r\nCLIPER...LBAR...AND NHC98 MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nAND TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FIRST GROUP APPEARS TO HAVE TO\r\nMUCH RIDGE TO THE NORTH INITIALIZED... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE 00Z\r\nHEIGHTS AT SAN ANDRES BEING TOO HIGH. THE 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASED\r\n20 METERS BETWEEN 27/12Z AND 28/00Z...EVEN THOUGH BETA MOVED 30 NMI\r\nCLOSER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...\r\nEXCEPT CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA AND GUNS MODELS.\r\n \r\nSSTS ARE VERY WARM AT 29C AND HIGHER... AND THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nPATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE\r\nONLY SLIGHT INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE VERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO IN CREWASE TO 15 KT BY 24 HOURS... BEFORE DECREASING TO\r\nLESS THAN 10 KT BY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... AND REMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND A\r\nNORTHWEST 30-KT WIND REPORT AT 06Z FROM SHIP ZCAM4 LOCATED ABOUT \r\n48 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 12.3N  81.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 12.8N  81.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 13.4N  81.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 13.8N  82.4W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 14.1N  83.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 14.5N  84.9W    35 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 14.7N  86.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-10-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005\r\n \r\nBETA IS GENERATING STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -86C. \r\nHOWEVER...OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AT 0705Z AND SSM/I AT 1148Z\r\nSUGGEST THE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH THE CONVECTION\r\nDISPLACED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THERE ARE HINTS OF\r\nTHIS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL.  WHILE CIRRUS EAST OF BETA ARE\r\nBLOWING TOWARD THE CENTER...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR...WHICH IF CORRECT DOES\r\nNOT FULLY EXPLAIN THE APPARENT STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE AND A 50 KT REPORT AT 0900Z FROM SHIPS ZCAM4 JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE BETA THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4.  BETA IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-24 HR.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS BUILDING WESTWARD.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR\r\nAND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF\r\nALL CALL FOR A VERY SHARP TURN...WHILE THE UKMET AND CANADIAN CALL\r\nFOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 36-48\r\nHR.  THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE UKMET BUT NORTH OF THE OVERALL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nIF BETA IS AS SHEARED AS THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS...THEN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION COULD BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\nTHAT BEING SAID...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO DECREASE\r\nIN 12-18 HR...AND THE GFDL IS CALLING FOR BETA TO REACH 95 KT\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nCALL FOR BETA TO REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE\r\nFASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nONE OUTER RAINBAND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN\r\nNICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.  AS BETA GETS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL\r\nAMERICAN COAST...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES\r\nWILL INCREASE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 12.9N  81.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 13.3N  81.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 13.9N  81.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.2N  82.6W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 14.6N  83.6W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 15.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 15.5N  88.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-10-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS JUST MEASURED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 990 MB AND REPORTED A PARTIAL 15 N MI WIDE EYE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ARE 51 KT...WHICH\r\nGENERALLY DOES NOT SUPPORT THE 55 KT INTENSITY SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  IT MAY BE\r\nTHAT A TIGHTER INNER CORE EXISTED EARLIER AND WAS DISRUPTED BY THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS JUST NOW COMING BACK TOGETHER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/4.  WHILE THE CENTER FIXES DO NOT YET\r\nSHOW A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION...A NET\r\nNORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE CLOUD MASS MAY BE A PRECURSOR OF THE\r\nEXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A\r\nSTRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-18 HR.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS SLOWLY BUILDING WESTWARD. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS STILL CALL FOR A WESTWARD TURN...ALTHOUGH ALL THREE ARE\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE UKMET STILL\r\nCALLS FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN...BUT STILL BRINGS BETA INLAND IN\r\nNICARAGUA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH\r\nFOR THE FIRST 48 HR...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN\r\nNICARAGUA IN 36-48 HR.  THE NEW TRACK REMAINS SOUTH OF THE UKMET\r\nAND JUST NORTH OF THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 15 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER BETA.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS\r\nWILL PERSIST FOR 12 HR OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nREDUCED SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES...\r\nCONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING...\r\nAND THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. \r\nTHUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR BETA TO REACH\r\n85 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MOUNTAINS...AND IT MAY BE THAT\r\nHANGING ON TO IT FOR 120 HR MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED DOWNWARD BASED ON SURFACE AND\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA.  BETA HAS BEEN MUCH SLOWER TO GROW IN SIZE THAN\r\nANTICIPATED...AND IT MAY BE THAT EVEN THE NEW FORECAST RADII ARE\r\nTOO LARGE.  WHILE THE WINDS MAY SPREAD ONSHORE LATER THAN\r\nORIGINALLY FORECAST...THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BE SPREADING INTO\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA STARTING TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 13.3N  81.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 13.8N  81.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 14.3N  82.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 14.6N  82.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 14.8N  83.9W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 15.0N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 16.0N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-10-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005\r\n \r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN IN DIRECT CONTACT WITH THE\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF COLOMBIA AND HAS BEEN RECEIVING WEATHER\r\nDATA FROM SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA. DATA FROM THE ISLAND OF\r\nPROVIDENCIA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BETA IS MOVING OVER OR VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE ISLAND. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 00Z WAS 995 MB AND\r\nWINDS WERE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 30 KNOTS. THE WINDS WERE 50 TO 55\r\nKNOTS ONE HOUR EARLIER. A NEW REPORT JUST RECEIVED FROM THE ISLAND\r\nINDICATES THAT THE WINDS ARE NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. BETA IS\r\nGOING THROUGH ITS USUAL UP AND DOWN CYCLE IN THE CONVECTION AND NOW\r\nIT IS ON THE UPWARD TREND WITH A VENGEANCE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BETA IS\r\nABOUT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nBETWEEN NOW AND THE TIME OF LANDFALL OVER NICARAGUA OR EASTERN\r\nHONDURAS. THIS TREND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND WITH THE GFDL\r\nMODEL WHICH TENACIOUSLY MAKES BETA A 95 TO 100-KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nBETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ABOUT 4 KNOTS.\r\nIT SEEMS THAT THE LEFT TURN INDICATED BY THE PARADE OF MODELS LED\r\nBY THE GFDL IS BEGINNING. IT WOULD BE FOOLISH NOT TO FOLLOW THESE\r\nADVANCED MODELS...AND RIGHTFULLY SO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN TURNING BETA WESTWARD. THE CURRENT STEERING PATTERN WOULD\r\nSUGGEST A NORTHWARD TRACK BUT THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS\r\nNEW PATTERN WILL ULTIMATELY FORCE BETA TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING TORRENTIAL RAINS TO PORTIONS OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE\r\nDAMAGE...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. PLEASE BE\r\nPREPARED FOR THIS EVENT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 13.6N  81.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 14.0N  81.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N  82.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N  83.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 14.5N  84.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N  86.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beta","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-10-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE BETA HAS\r\nBECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED INTO THE 13TH HURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON. A\r\n29/0211Z SSMI OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT AVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY REVEALED A VERY SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONGEST\r\nCONVECTION... WHICH MEANS BETA WAS PROBABLY A HURRICANE AT 00Z. THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/03. THE CENTER\r\nPOSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE UNTIL THE PAST HOUR WHEN AN\r\nEYE FEATURE/PRONOUNCED WARM SPOT BECAME APPARENT IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY NORTH OF PROVIDENCIA ISLAND. THE OVERALL MOTION...HOWEVER\r\n...HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND BETA MAY EVEN BE STATIONARY. THE COMPACT\r\nHURRICANE IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES... WESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA... AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MOST OF THE NHC MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nOVERESTIMATE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nINSIST ON DRIVING BETA WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS\r\nSOUTHERN NICARAGUA AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. HOWEVER... THEY\r\nHAVE BEEN ADVERTISING THIS MOTION FOR NEARLY 3 DAYS NOW AND IT\r\nHASN'T HAPPENED YET. THE EXCEPTIONS HAVE BEEN THE UKMET... CANADIAN\r\nAND SOME OF THE SIMPLER STATISTICAL MODELS... WHICH HAVE BEEN TAKING\r\nBETA ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AN INTO\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THOSE MODELS HAVE HAD\r\nA NORTHWARD BIAS AND ALSO A FAST SPEED BIAS. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS INDUCING THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD\r\nACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BETA TO GRADUALLY BUILD\r\nWESTWARD AND SLOWLY NUDGE THE HURRICANE INTO NICARAGUA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE MENTIONED EARLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW 10 KT BY 24 HOURS. THE\r\nVERY WARM SSTS AND THE UNUSUALLY MOIST MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE\r\nARE CONDUCIVE TO BETA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... IF COLD UPWELLING\r\nDOES NOT OCCUR BENEATH THE SLOW MOVING CYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nBETA COULD BECOME A STRONG CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA... CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE... AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION... SOME\r\nOF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN\r\nINTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO... RESULTING IN STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nACROSS CUBA... FLORIDA... AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 13.7N  81.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.1N  82.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.3N  83.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 14.4N  83.9W    50 KT...INLAND NERN NICARAGUA\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 14.4N  84.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.4N  86.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N  88.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beta","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-10-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005\r\n \r\nAN 1140Z TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT BETA HAS A PINHOLE EYE UNDERNEATH\r\nITS CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH HAS CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -80C JUST\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THESE AND ON\r\nTHE EYE SIZE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/3...AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BETA\r\nMAY BE MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THAT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nYESTERDAY HAS MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC...WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nAND RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWING RISING PRESSURES BEHIND THE TROUGH. \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR 24-36\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BETA TO TURN MORE WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE NARROW BUT STRENGTHENING RIDGE.  WHILE THERE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE NORTHWARD UKMET AND THE MORE\r\nSOUTHWARD GFS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT BETA WILL MAKE\r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HR IN EASTERN OR NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING\r\nFOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BIT SLOWER.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL IS SHOWING\r\nA 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HR.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS INCREASED BY THE PRESENCE\r\nOF THE PINHOLE EYE.  BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL BRING BETA TO 95 KT BY\r\nLANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT BETA WILL GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST\r\nAND MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...BETA\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE\r\nDAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN\r\nADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA\r\nMAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 13.9N  81.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.2N  82.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.4N  83.3W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 14.4N  84.4W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 14.4N  85.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 14.5N  87.5W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beta","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-10-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINVESTIGATING BETA HAVE FOUND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n77 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED\r\nFROM THE AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES IS 979 MB...AND A 10 N MI WIDE EYE IS\r\nPRESENT.  THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE EYE AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION\r\nOF AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nBETA HAS SWUNG TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 280/4.  AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER\r\nLAND.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN WANT TO TAKE BETA WEST OF SOUTH INTO\r\nTHE PACIFIC.  GIVEN THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO TURN\r\nBETA WESTWARD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THESE\r\nMODELS...BEING JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC...THE\r\nOVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING.  WITH\r\nTHE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND THE SMALL EYE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD\r\nCHANCE OF A BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE\r\nGFDL MAKES BETA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12-18 HR...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY\r\nTHAT WINDS WILL REACH 95-105 KT BEFORE LANDFALL.  BETA SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS\r\nOF HONDURAS IN 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE\r\nDAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  IN\r\nADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA\r\nMAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 13.8N  82.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.9N  83.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.0N  84.1W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 14.0N  85.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 14.2N  86.4W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N  88.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beta","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-10-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BETA IS CURRENTLY\r\nINTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DANGEROUS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ON THE UPWARD\r\nTREND. IT APPEARS THAT BETA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY\r\nDEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 90 KNOTS AND THERE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR BETA TO FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA EARLY\r\nSUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nTHE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN\r\nWAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. NOW THAT BETA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST\r\nAT 4 TO 5 KNOTS...IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY\r\nTRAPPED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.\r\nTHIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE\r\nDAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  EVEN\r\nWHEN BETA MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A WEAKENING CYCLONE...IT COULD\r\nSTILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.\r\n \r\nSOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET\r\nDRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 13.7N  82.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.5N  83.6W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.7N  84.7W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 13.7N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.7N  87.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 14.0N  88.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beta","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-10-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE BECAME MORE CLEARLY DEFINED IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nOVERNIGHT AND AT 06Z WAS SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE EYE IS SO SMALL...\r\nHOWEVER... THAT SSMI IMAGERY FROM A 29/0156Z OVERPASS BARELY\r\nRESOLVED IT.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL\r\nCLASSIFYING AGENCIES AT 06Z INCREASED TO T5.5/102 KT.  SINCE THAT\r\nTIME THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT... BUT THE EYE IS STILL\r\nDISCERNIBLE.  THERE IS NOT ANY OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE INTENSITY WAS\r\nNOT 100 KT AT 06Z... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET TO 100\r\nKT SINCE THE WINDS MIGHT NOT YET HAVE DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nVERY RECENT WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION.  BETA IS THE EIGHTH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON... ALTHOUGH GIVEN CURRENT\r\nTRENDS IT COULD WEAKEN AND REACH THE COASTLINE OF NICARAGUA AS A\r\nCATEGORY TWO.  THIS SMALL HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA.\r\n \r\nA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 7 KT HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED\r\nOVERNIGHT... AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ANY REASON WHY BETA WILL\r\nSLOW DOWN SOON... SO LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA IS\r\nIMMINENT.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING THE CENTER OF BETA\r\nACROSS NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN FORECAST\r\nAT LEAST A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC OCEAN.  SINCE BETA IS SUCH A SMALL HURRICANE AND THE\r\nTERRAIN OF NICARAGUA SO RUGGED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL\r\nFOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS OR LESS AND FOR THE\r\nREMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE... HOWEVER... THAT WHATEVER IS LEFT OF BETA IN A FEW\r\nDAYS COULD AT SOME POINT LEAD TO REGENERATION IN THE PACIFIC.\r\n \r\nBETA WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA... PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS... LIKELY LEADING TO\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WHICH COULD CAUSE\r\nCONSIDERABLE DAMAGE.  THE TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD CONTINUE WELL\r\nINLAND AND MANY HOURS AFTER LANDFALL... EVEN AFTER THE WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH BETA WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nSOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA COULD BE\r\nDRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 13.0N  83.4W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 12.7N  84.3W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 12.5N  85.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 12.4N  86.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beta","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-10-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WERE RAPIDLY WARMING IN THE HOURS JUST BEFORE\r\nBETA MADE LANDFALL NEAR 12Z THIS MORNING.  THE LANDFALL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WAS 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO...BASED ON A DATA-T DVORAK\r\nNUMBER OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AT 1115Z.  GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...BETA SHOULD WEAKEN VERY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER\r\nINLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE 24\r\nHOURS OR SO IT WILL SPEND OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...IN THE UNLIKELY\r\nEVENT THAT BETA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT ITS OVERLAND\r\nPASSAGE...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nBASIN. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/6.  BETA HAS MOVED PAST A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER MEXICO UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL\r\nCONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND\r\nTHESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 12.7N  83.8W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 12.5N  84.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 12.2N  86.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beta","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-10-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005\r\n \r\nBETA CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 260/6.  LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF BETA SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A PATH A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST\r\nUNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN\r\nNICARAGUA.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE SOME REGENERATION\r\nAFTER THE REMNANTS OF BETA ENTER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN\r\nTOMORROW.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH BETA IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL\r\nCONTINUE OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 12.7N  84.4W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 12.2N  85.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beta","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-10-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005\r\n\r\nBETA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER LAND...AND THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA. \r\nWITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST...THE REMNANT MID- TO\r\nLOWER TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN\r\nTOMORROW.  THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION OVER THAT\r\nBASIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH BETA IS DISSIPATING...THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF\r\nADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO\r\nCAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BETA.  SHOULD THE SYSTEM REGENERATE\r\nOVER THE EAST PACIFIC...IT WOULD BE ASSIGNED A NEW NUMBER AND/OR\r\nNAME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 12.7N  85.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-11-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND RADAR DATA FROM\r\nMARTINIQUE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE\r\nAND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT\r\n14/0000Z... ST. LUCIA REPORTED SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 29 KT\r\n...AND SHIP ZCBU6 LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF REPORTED\r\nSOUTHEAST WINDS OF 27 KT. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES AT 00Z SUPPORT\r\nA MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1007 MB... CORRESPONDING TO\r\nAPPROXIMATELY 32 KT. RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE SHOW CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER... WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LARGE AREA OF -80C TO -82C\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSINCE 22Z. THEREFORE... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED\r\nTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN\r\nTHE FORMATIVE STAGES... SO THERE MAY SOME ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE GENERAL TREND BY THE VARIOUS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO PROPAGATE\r\nWEST-NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT... THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... ALLOWING THE RIDGE\r\nTO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS\r\nSHOULD ACT TO THE DRIVE THE STORM WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA IN THE 48-120 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS... UKMET... AND\r\nGFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nACROSS THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT\r\nANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS... THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AT WHICH TIME MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE\r\nINTENSITY UP TO 66 KT IN 108 HOURS... WHEREAS THE GFDL MAKES THE\r\nCYCLONE A 112-KT MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE SAME TIME. IT SHOULD BE\r\nPOINTED OUT THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS BASED ON\r\nTHE MEDIUM BAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TAKES THE STORM\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS COLOMBIA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\nIT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN\r\nINDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER\r\nTHE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 13.5N  62.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.3N  64.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.3N  65.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 15.9N  67.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.1N  68.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N  72.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 16.0N  75.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  79.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-11-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30\r\nKT...SO THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY STRONG\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS NOT WELL\r\nORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 25-33 KT OF\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER.  BEYOND 2 DAYS...ASSUMING THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SHEARING WILL LESSEN AS A RESULT OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THAT REGION.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY SYSTEMS IN\r\nSHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...BUT IT NONETHELESS DEMANDS THE FORECASTERS'\r\nRESPECT AS VERY CREDIBLE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AND IS THE\r\nSAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER IS NOT\r\nYET WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN 295/9.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN THIS RIDGE...AND SLOW THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL THUS\r\nFAR...SO A SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS\r\nTIME.  MY OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 13.8N  63.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.4N  64.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.1N  66.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  67.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  69.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.0N  73.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 16.0N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-11-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER DEEP AND PERSISTENT... AND IT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD\r\nSOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO\r\nBECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED\r\nAT 30 KT TO WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN BEFORE...\r\nPRESUMABLY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POOR\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM... IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL GENERALLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INDUCE EASTERLY\r\nFLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES... WHICH WOULD SERVE TO SLOW THE CYCLONE DOWN BUT NOT\r\nBE ENOUGH TO PICK IT UP OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. INDEED... ALL OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH\r\nFIVE DAYS... ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE LATITUDE AT\r\nWHICH THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE... MOSTLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG THE\r\nMODELS IN HOW STRONG THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE\r\nTOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS RATHER\r\nZONAL... WITH MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF 15N THAN TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  NONETHELESS... THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO KEEP ITS SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT GRADUAL. THE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED... WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SNEAK TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BECOMES SITUATED BENEATH THE\r\nANTICYCLONE... IT COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. THE\r\nOCEAN TEMPERATURES DO NOT PROVIDE ANY LIMITING FACTOR... SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HINGES LARGELY ON HOW SHEAR IMPACTS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS DIAGNOSES\r\nSHEAR OF 25-30 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DOES NOT FORECAST\r\nA TROPICAL STORM UNTIL 36 HOURS. IT THEN FORECASTS A STORM NO\r\nSTRONGER THAN ABOUT 50 KT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... BUT IT COULD BE\r\nOVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR... ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE\r\nENDS UP DIRECTLY BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO\r\nFORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... WITH\r\nTHE 06Z RUN PEAKING AT 110 KT IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. GIVEN THE\r\nDIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE ON A SYSTEM STILL IN THE FORMATIVE\r\nSTAGES... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 13.8N  63.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.4N  64.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  66.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.4N  68.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 15.4N  70.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  77.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-11-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DETERIORATED SINCE\r\nTHIS MORNING.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND MORE CLEARLY\r\nDISCERNIBLE.  DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS BUT ONLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR.  ESTIMATING\r\nTHE INTENSITY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE\r\nCENTER POSITION... BUT THE DISTANCE OF THE EXPOSED SWIRL FROM THE\r\nCONVECTION PROVIDES CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  18Z DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0... AND\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/7.  A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO\r\nPERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEYOND DAY THREE AS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK... BUT\r\nLIKELY SLOW ENOUGH FOR IT TO STILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN FIVE\r\nDAYS.  SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL MOVE... DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN HOW\r\nSTRONG THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS DEPICT A\r\nDEEPER SYSTEM AND ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...\r\nWHILE THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL SURVIVE THE SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT COULD THEREAFTER BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  IN PARTICULAR... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... WHERE OCEAN\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM NEAR 29C.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nA TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS AND A PEAK AT 55 KT IN 96 HOURS...\r\nWHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BETWEEN...\r\nBUT MUCH CLOSER TO THE SHIPS... AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE... AND THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM... THIS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 14.2N  64.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.6N  65.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.1N  67.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 15.4N  69.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N  71.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  78.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 15.5N  80.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-11-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 120 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH WAS DEPICTED NICELY IN AN SSMIS OVERPASS AT 0043Z.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND SHIP V7CY9\r\nREPORTED 29 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 20Z.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nBASIC FORECAST THINKING. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF\r\nFLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE BAM\r\nMODELS...REFLECTING THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE\r\nCARIBBEAN...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE DETERMINED\r\nIN PART BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. AT\r\nTHE MOMENT...THE CENTER IS A SHALLOW FEATURE MOVING WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nWATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nDECREASING...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST SHEAR\r\nTENDENCY ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS.  INDEED...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nIF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IT SHOULD\r\nTHEREFORE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN 2-3 DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GFS SAYS THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL SURVIVE THE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nCONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE IN THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 14.5N  65.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N  66.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.3N  68.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N  70.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.5N  72.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N  81.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-11-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHUS FAR...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FAILED TO BECOME ANY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nRAGGED AND AMORPHOUS.  SOME DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nAS GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE\r\nBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS\r\nRELAXATION OF SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING TO BEGIN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. \r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR COULD AGAIN\r\nINCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES WEST OF\r\nTHE AXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nGFDL INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD IN THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL RUNS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS HAVE\r\nNOT BEEN FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  ONE SHOULD\r\nALSO BEAR IN MIND THAT OBJECTIVE OR SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\nAT 4-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL.\r\n\r\nBASED ON MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...285/10.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR A\r\nWHILE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS\r\nDURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THE RIDGE WEAKENING IN 3-4 DAYS...SO THE FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nLIKELY TO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY DAY\r\n5...THE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ESSENTIALLY OBLITERATED\r\nAS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DROP INTO THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF\r\nMOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS\r\nTIME THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ONLY HINTS AT A NORTHWARD TURN. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 14.6N  66.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.8N  67.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.0N  69.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.2N  71.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.3N  74.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  78.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 15.5N  80.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N  81.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-11-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT\r\n10 KT... AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES.\r\nCONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT SINCE\r\nABOUT 06Z... AND MORE RECENTLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN FORMING NORTH OF THE CENTER. 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nVARY FROM 30 TO 35 KT DEPENDING ON THE CENTER LOCATION... BUT GIVEN\r\nTHE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THEN...\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THIS IS ALSO\r\nCONSISTENT WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT AND 1005 MB FROM AN EARLIER\r\nAMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 07Z... AND WITH A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT\r\n1030Z.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER\r\nTHE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE\r\nWESTWARD.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK\r\nDOWN BY DAYS 4 AND 5... WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE...\r\nALTHOUGH IT COULD START EDGING NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME.  WHILE THE\r\nDETAILS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS VARY... THEY ALL SHOW VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THIS WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE\r\nDECLINE... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE.\r\nAS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE\r\nAND... COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C... PROVIDE AN\r\nENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION CAN\r\nSURVIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... IT COULD THEREAFTER STRENGTHEN\r\nINTO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOR NOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN\r\nFORECASTING LIMITED STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS... WITH\r\nA MORE STEADY INCREASE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 14.2N  67.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 14.3N  69.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N  71.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N  73.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.8N  75.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N  79.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N  81.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N  81.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-11-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS WHAT THE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING TODAY... THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nQUITE POORLY ORGANIZED.  THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY\r\nWINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK WINDS\r\nAROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED\r\nBY THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 1006 MB.  EVEN THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS A\r\nBIT SLOPPY... SOME DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE BY... BUT ONLY ON\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR.  PERHAPS\r\nGENEROUSLY... THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS...\r\nBASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT... A FEW SHIP REPORTS OF ABOUT\r\n30 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT... AND DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 11\r\nKT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE\r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD.  AFTER THAT... THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS\r\nCOMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST.  DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY ON DAYS 3-5.  HOWEVER... EACH MODEL\r\nFORECASTS A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND EACH SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THAT TIME... BUT WITH VARYING STRENGTH\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY\r\nBECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nFEATURES... ALTHOUGH ONE COULD END UP HAVING MORE INFLUENCE THAN\r\nTHE OTHER.  MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO\r\nTHE MOTION ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS... THEN SIMILARLY SLOW THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSTATUS... ITS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO\r\nOF CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR... THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CREATE A WEAKER\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO\r\nDEVELOP IN 24-36 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  SHIPS\r\nPEAKS AT 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS... WHILE THE GFDL PEAKS AT 77 KT A\r\nLITTLE LATER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND STILL\r\nANTICIPATES DEVELOPMENT INTO A HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING\r\nTREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION\r\nOF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED\r\nTO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 14.8N  69.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 14.9N  70.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N  73.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.2N  75.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.4N  77.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  81.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N  82.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N  82.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-11-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION AND\r\nMOTION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY OF THE EARLIER TRACK. AN SSMIS\r\nMICROWAVE PASS AT 0030Z HINTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE RACING MORE\r\nQUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION THOUGH...AND IF THIS IS THE CASE\r\nTHEN THE DEPRESSION IS ON A FAST TRACK TO DISSIPATION.  QUIKSCAT\r\nAMBIGUITIES JUST IN A FEW MOMENTS AGO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT A CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT...BUT JUST BARELY.  THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS BELOW TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE GFS AND UW/CIMSS INDICATE\r\nTHERE IS STILL ABOUT 25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL\r\nDISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD IT\r\nSURVIVE...THE DEPRESSION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT NOW BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NEITHER MODEL NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THIS\r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nAFTER THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE\r\nAPRROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AND MUCH OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OR\r\nEVEN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5.  A COMPLICATION IS THE BROAD AND\r\nPERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  IF\r\nTHIS LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.  THIS\r\nIS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH HAS NEVER THOUGHT HIGHLY\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION AND SO FAR HAS BEEN RIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL PRESUME THAT THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND IS\r\nA DEEP ENOUGH SYSTEM BY DAY 4 TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH IN\r\nTHE GULF.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 14.9N  70.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N  72.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 15.1N  74.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 15.3N  76.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  81.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N  81.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N  81.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-11-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO REAL EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE CENTER STILL EXISTS.  NO\r\nWESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW CLOUD MOTION CAN BE DISCERNED ON\r\nNIGHTTIME INFRARED CHANNEL IMAGES...AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nAMBIGUITY PLOT WAS NOT AT ALL CONVINCING.  WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL DATA TO CONFIRM THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nDISSIPATED.  IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...IS\r\nABOUT TO BE DRAWN INTO A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  INDEED...THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS THE\r\nMORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING FEATURE AT THIS TIME.  ADDITIONALLY...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE MAY\r\nDISRUPT THE SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER ANTICYCLONE UNDER WHICH THE\r\nDEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...OR REGENERATION.  \r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING\r\nGIVEN THE SEEMING ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nEASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nPUSH THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 14.8N  71.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.8N  73.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.8N  75.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Seven","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-11-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN\r\nHAS LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION.  THE REMNANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS\r\nMOVING 270/15...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR ANOTHER\r\n12-24 HR BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER...AND DEVELOPING...\r\nLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF\r\nREGENRATION...THAT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 14.7N  73.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gamma","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-11-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTWENTY-SEVEN HAVE REFORMED INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED\r\nNORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT JUST NORTH OF ROATAN ISLAND...ALONG WITH\r\nTWO SPOTS OF 45 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM GAMMA\r\nWITH 35 KT WINDS.  WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 300/04...WITH ADDITIONAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY ADDED BY THE ELONGATION OF THE CENTER.  GAMMA IS \r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nBEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THESE\r\nRIDGES TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE\r\nCYCLOGENESIS OVER EITHER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION\r\nSHOULD TURN GAMMA NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nWHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT\r\nBETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF GAMMA...AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR LESS.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nFORECAST A VERY WEAK GAMMA TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...\r\nWHILE THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONGER GAMMA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE ON THE GFDL ON THE BASIS THAT IT\r\nHAS A STRONGER SYSTEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...IF GAMMA DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS FORECAST THE\r\nMOTION COULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nGAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME.  SHEAR\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF\r\nSHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR\r\nTO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR.  IN ADDITION...GAMMA\r\nIS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME\r\nSTRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES.  THE GFDL MODEL CALLS\r\nFOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nBARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR...\r\nALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nAND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP\r\nINTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD\r\nTRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL\r\nPROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.4N  85.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N  86.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.3N  86.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.2N  87.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  86.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 25.0N  82.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 35.0N  71.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gamma","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-11-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005\r\n\r\n...CLARIFIED WORDING IN SECOND PARAGRAPH...\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... ON ITS LAST LEG ALONG THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST BEFORE\r\n22Z... DID NOT MEASURE ANY WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER... SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN HONDURAS SUGGESTED WESTERLY\r\nWINDS FARTHER SOUTH... SO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN\r\nALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT THAT TIME. MORE RECENT IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EDGED NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST\r\nAT A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 4 KT.  A MID-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENT\r\nIN THE COLDER INFRARED TOPS FARTHER NORTH... WITH THE TILTING\r\nLIKELY CAUSED BY THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. ALSO ON ITS LAST LEG...\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. 00Z\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE CURVED BANDING IN THE\r\nMID-LEVELS ARE ONLY 30 KT... BUT A SHEAR PATTERN USING A MORE\r\nSOUTHERN CENTER LOCATION YIELDS A STRONGER ESTIMATE. THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT MAINLY BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA... BUT IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A\r\nLITTLE MORE THAN TWO DAYS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.  THE MODELS\r\nARE NOT IN AGREEMENT... HOWEVER... ON WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF GAMMA BY\r\nTHAT TIME.  MOST OF THEM FORECAST A TRACK THAT SEEMS TOO FAR TO THE\r\nWEST OVER YUCATAN AND TOO SLOW... GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW THAT WILL ALSO SHEAR THE SYSTEM AND FORCE\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE\r\nCONVECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT\r\nFORECAST THE TRACK WELL FOR SHEARED SYSTEMS... AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE SHEAR IS\r\nPOINTED.  BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS... ONCE THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\nFORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...\r\nLIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... KEEPS GAMMA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nALONG WITH THAT SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE MUCH\r\nSLOWER IN FORECASTING RECURVATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY GET STRONGER AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE... CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING... AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE SEEMS RATHER\r\nUNLIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.  THE GFDL NOW FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND PEAKS AT ABOUT 45 KT. \r\nTHE SHIPS IS SIMILAR BUT FORECASTS A DECLINE AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ANTICIPATING THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT\r\nOVERALL LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL GAMMA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND\r\nEVENTUALLY IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.4N  85.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.8N  86.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.4N  86.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.8N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.8N  85.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 25.0N  81.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 34.0N  70.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gamma","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-11-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT... DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER\r\nAND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z...\r\nALBEIT LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AREA EXCEPT FOR BELIZE...\r\nINDICATE A BREAK IN THE 500 MB AND 400 MB RIDGE AXES ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA AND\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL\r\nTHE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THIS\r\nFEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nGAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THE\r\nBAHAMAS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE\r\nGAMMA OR KEEP IT TRAPPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS... WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nCIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL\r\nMAINTAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSINCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS GAMMA\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 16.9N  86.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  86.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N  86.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  86.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  84.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 26.0N  79.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 38.0N  67.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gamma","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-11-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND SSM/I\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GAMMA IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...NEAR THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THIS POSITION IS INDICATIVE\r\nOF THE 20-30 KT VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4.  GAMMA IS SOUTH OF A\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE EASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...AND BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT THESE RIDGES WILL BREAK\r\nDOWN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CAUSES\r\nA FRONTAL LOW TO FORM OVER FLORIDA OR THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE GAMMA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR POSSIBLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER GAMMA TURNING MORE EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE GFDL WITH ITS STRONGER STORM\r\nCALLS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO...BUT\r\nSOUTH OF...THE GFDL...AND IS NUDGED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  THIS\r\nIS STILL A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO\r\nTHE TRACK COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON DATA FROM THE\r\nFLIGHT OF THE NOAA G4 JET STARTING AT 18Z.\r\n \r\nGAMMA IS ALREADY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  THIS SHOULD NOT ALLOW GAMMA TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.  THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nCALLS FOR IT TO PEAK AT 60 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE LATTER MIGHT BE\r\nA BIT OPTIMISTIC IN LIGHT OF THE FORECAST SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12\r\nHR...THEN KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE LIFE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THE BAROCLINIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE\r\nFORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK\r\nOF GAMMA...THEY SHOULD ABSORB GAMMA AFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MIGHT BE A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ADVISORY POSITION.  IF THIS IS THE\r\nCASE...AN ADDITIONAL RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REACHES THE STORM AROUND 18Z.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 16.8N  85.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.6N  86.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N  86.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N  85.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 21.9N  84.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 27.5N  76.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gamma","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-11-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GAMMA IS 30 N MI OR\r\nMORE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH APPEARS RAGGED AND DISORGANIZED. \r\nHOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004\r\nMB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT 25-30 N MI NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 360/2 BASED ON 24 HR OF\r\nMOTION.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nSHORT-TERM EASTWARD DRIFT.  GAMMA IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nAND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGES TO BREAK DOWN AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD\r\nTURN GAMMA MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO\r\nBRING A STRONGER GAMMA TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS...ALTHOUGH\r\nIT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ON ITS LATEST RUN.  THE GFS AND UKMET CALL\r\nFOR A MORE EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  DUE\r\nTO THE MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...CALLING FOR GAMMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 24-36 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION\r\nTOWARD CENTRAL CUBA.  THIS TRACK IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...AND CALLS FOR LESS ACCELERATION AFTER 36 HR.  THIS IS STILL\r\nA SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nCOULD OCCUR TONIGHT BASED ON DATA FROM THE FLIGHT OF THE NOAA G4\r\nJET CURRENTLY UNDERWAY.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS 20-30 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER GAMMA.  EVEN WITH A MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY FORECAST TRACK THAN 6 HR AGO...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH WILL ALLOW\r\nLITTLE IF ANY STRENGTHENING.  ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT\r\nTRACK...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW WILL BE\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND CATCH GAMMA. \r\nBASED ON THESE TWO PREMISES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE\r\nINTENSITY AT 40 KT UNTIL 72 HR...WHEN GAMMA SHOULD BE MERGING WITH\r\nTHE FRONT.  THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD ABSORB GAMMA BY 96 HR.  AN\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN GAMMA EVEN\r\nBEFORE THE FRONT CATCHES IT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 16.3N  85.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.8N  85.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.8N  85.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.9N  84.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.7N  83.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N  76.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gamma","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-11-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT AND SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING\r\nMAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE\r\nCONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND PROHIBIT IT FROM PERSISTING.\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MOSTLY OBSCURED IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY... BUT ITS ESTIMATED LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE DOWNSHEAR\r\nCONVECTION IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED POSITION BASED ON THE\r\nEARLIER AIRCRAFT POSITIONS.  THE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS HAS BEEN NORTHEASTWARD OR ABOUT 050/5... BUT THIS MOTION MIGHT\r\nNOT YET BE DEFINITIVE.  A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE GAMMA IS WEST OF A\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DRAGGED\r\nALONG BY THE CONVECTION SHEARED FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE\r\nTO FORECAST THE ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR NORTHEASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  AS THIS SYSTEM THEN\r\nMOVES UP THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS... WITH GAMMA ADVANCING AHEAD OF THAT\r\nFRONT.  SEVERAL OF THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFS... GFDL... AND\r\nNOGAPS... FORECAST GAMMA TO MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE FRONT\r\nARRIVES IN THE CARIBBEAN... AND THEN CALL FOR A MUCH WEAKER OR\r\nPOSSIBLY DISSIPATING GAMMA TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. \r\nONE PROBLEM WITH THESE MODELS IS THAT THEY DO NOT INITIALIZE THE\r\nPOSITION OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF GAMMA VERY WELL... SO THEIR\r\nEVENTUAL THEIR TRACKS TO THE EAST COULD BE TOO SLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS EAST OF MOST OF THE MODELS DURING THE FIRST 36\r\nHOURS... BUT THEREAFTER IT GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL TRENDS IN\r\nANTICIPATING A WEAKENING GAMMA TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN\r\nCUBA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT PROBABLY WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT.\r\n \r\nNO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF GAMMA IS FORECAST... SINCE THE WIND\r\nSHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROCEEDS TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS STEADY WEAKENING... ONLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECAST OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 60 KT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS\r\nDISCOUNTED DUE TO THE ESTABLISHED TRACK RECORD OF THAT MODEL\r\nOVER-INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT QUITE SHOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING\r\nTHAT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES... BUT IT IS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT\r\nCOMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GAMMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN\r\nFORECAST AND PERHAPS DISSIPATE BEFORE IT EVER BECOMES ENTANGLED\r\nWITH THE COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 16.6N  84.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.3N  84.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.4N  84.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N  83.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.7N  80.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N  73.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gamma","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-11-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005\r\n \r\nEARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE\r\nHIGHEST 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 37 KT IN A FEW SPOTS JUST NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS. AT BEST...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS SUPPORT BORDERLINE\r\nTROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nSINCE WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE FLIGHT LEGS IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT... GAMMA IS BEING KEPT A TROPICAL STORM BUT\r\nTHE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/02...BASED ON A 12-HOUR MOTION. THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL RECON POSITONS INDICATE GAMMA HAS ONLY DRIFTED SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z ALONG WITH DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE\r\nNOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT SHOW A WEAKNESS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL STILL EXISTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTH... BUT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS REMAINED INTACT. MODERATE\r\nTO STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A \r\nSHEARING PATTERN ACROSS GAMMA. THE RESULT IS THAT THE CYCLONE NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE VERTICALLY LESS DEEP THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AROUND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS\r\nACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS MOVE A\r\nWEAKENING GAMMA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD... WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS FORECASTING\r\nDISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION BY 96 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES\r\nINTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS WITH EITHER DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURRING BY 72-96\r\nHOURS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n \r\nADDITONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 16.7N  85.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N  85.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N  85.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 17.9N  84.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N  82.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N  78.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gamma","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-11-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY WANED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE\r\nCLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ANOTHER WEAK\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nALONG THE HONDURAS COAST... BUT IT IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS AT THIS\r\nTIME OF TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nDECREASED ACCORDINGLY... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT\r\n...BASED MAINLY ON THE TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/03... ALTHOUGH GAMMA APPEARS TO BE MAKING\r\nA SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 12Z INDICATE\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL STEERING FLOW PATTERN... EXCEPT THAT\r\nTHE BREAK IN THE 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS FILLED IN. THIS\r\nSHOULD HELP TO KEEP GAMMA TRAPPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT CAPTURES THE CYCLONE BY\r\n72 HOURS. THE NOGAPS...GFDN... AND COAMPS MODELS MAINTAIN A DEEPER\r\nAND STRONGER CIRCULATION THAN DO THE REST OF THE NHC MODELS...WHICH\r\nSEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED ON THE 12Z BELIZE SOUNDING. IN CONTRAST...\r\nTHE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WEAKEN GAMMA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AND DRIFT IT AROUND WITHIN 90 NMI OF ITS CURRENT LOCATION.\r\nTHE REMAINING MODELS ALSO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND DRIFT IT SLOWLY\r\nEAST OR SOUTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LEANS CLOSELY TOWARD THE GFS MODELS... WITH\r\nDISSIPATION POSSIBLY OCCURRING WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR... AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nAS NOTED IN 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM BELIZE. THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nDISSIPATES GAMMA BY 24 HOURS. THIS RAPID DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND\r\nWAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY POOR APPEARANCE\r\nOF GAMMA IN THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 16.9N  85.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.1N  85.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N  84.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 17.7N  83.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.7N  81.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gamma","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-11-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005\r\n \r\nGAMMA HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT NO ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING HAS\r\nSHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  BASED ON THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT...BUT COULD\r\nBE LESS THAN THAT BY NOW.  STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND PREVENT THE\r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION. GAMMA IS LIKELY TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING...OR ALMOST SURELY BY\r\nTOMORROW.\r\n \r\nGAMMA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AS THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN 360/2.  LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AFTER WHICH A STRONG COLD FRONT\r\nSWEEPING THROUGH THE GULF AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD TAKE\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION GENERALLY EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE SHALLOW BAM AND GFS MODELS. THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT OR DISSIPATE\r\nAHEAD OF THE FRONT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 17.0N  85.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 17.4N  85.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N  85.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.6N  83.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gamma","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-11-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005\r\n \r\nGAMMA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT\r\nALSO CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  THUS THE SYSTEM\r\nNO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND DISCOURAGE THE\r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nADDITIONALLY...IN 24 HOURS OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO\r\nSWEEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE\r\nREMNANT LOW OF GAMMA WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS FRONT OR\r\nDISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.\r\n \r\nGAMMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nFRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE.  AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT OF\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING IS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD TURN GAMMA'S REMNANTS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nGAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY...OCCURS.\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF GAMMA CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND IN OFFSHORE\r\nWATERS FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER  MIAOFFNT3 AND UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nFZNT23 KNHC.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 17.2N  85.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 17.4N  85.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N  84.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N  82.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-11-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n5 PM EDT WED NOV 23 2005\r\n \r\nTHE 2005 ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SEASON REFUSES TO END AS MODERATE\r\nTO DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AND HAS\r\nWRAPPED ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nOF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 1000\r\nNMI SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS\r\nOCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY AS THE\r\nINTENSIFYING CIRCULATION HAS WRAPPED IN DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A 0852Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS SHOWING A FEW 50-KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS TO THE\r\nNORTH... AND A 986.5 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 62556 LOCATED\r\nABOUT 50 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 23/16Z. THAT BUOY PRESSURE ALSO\r\nMAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE 23/02Z PRESSURE OF 984.4 MB FROM BUOY\r\n13534 WHEN IT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE\r\n50-KT INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM DELTA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A\r\nTROPICAL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 165/08 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DELTA BOTTOMING OUT IN\r\nLATITUDE BY ABOUT 24 HOURS...BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE NORTH. THE\r\nMAN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS WHETHER DELTA TURNS EAST OR\r\nWEST OF 40W LONGITUDE BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTH. I HAVE\r\nOPTED TO TURN THE TRACK COUNTERCLOCKWISE TO THE EAST AND THEN\r\nNORTH... GIVEN THAT DELTA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND\r\nVERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONIC GYRE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN\r\nSPEED TO... BUT IS RIGHT OF... THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE 850-200 MB VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DELTA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE\r\nFROM THE CURRENT 50 KT DOWN TO 22 KT IN 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN\r\nTHAT DELTA IS SHALLOWER THAN CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONES... LESS\r\nSHEAR IS SUGGESTED BY UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR WINDS OF 20-30 KT AT 300\r\nMB...WHICH IS ABOUT 10-20 KT LESS THAN AT 200 MB. ANTICYCLONIC\r\nOUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SO SOME\r\nADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS DELTA MOVES\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER SSTS OF 25.5C FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 25.9N  40.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 25.1N  40.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 24.7N  39.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N  39.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 26.0N  39.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  39.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 36.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-11-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005\r\n\r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES...FROM TRMM...SSMI...AND SSMI/S...INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM HAS SOME EASTWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT.  THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY OF 50 KT.  DELTA IS STILL IN A STRONGLY SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT DOES NOT DECREASE THE\r\nSHEAR AS MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS WAS SHOWN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS RUN.  NONETHELESS...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS AND AT LEAST SOME RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IS\r\nLIKELY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DELTA\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER COOLER WATERS AND IT SHOULD\r\nBE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nSUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...SHOW A NEW CYCLONE FORMING TO THE WEST\r\nOF DELTA AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN 3-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  DELTA IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER-SCALE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND\r\nIT IS APPARENTLY BEING STEERED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW ON\r\nTHE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LARGER GYRE.  DELTA SHOULD STOP MOVING\r\nSOUTHWARD SOON...AS IT NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GYRE. \r\nTHERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE FORMER MODEL SHOWING DELTA\r\nTURNING AROUND AND MOVING QUITE A BIT FARTHER NORTH THAN SHOWN BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2114 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nWHICH INDICATED SOME CONTRACTION OF THE WIND FIELD...WHICH IS MORE\r\nTYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 25.3N  40.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 24.4N  39.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 24.2N  39.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 25.0N  39.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 26.0N  39.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 28.5N  40.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 31.0N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 35.0N  41.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-11-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT DELTA IS A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND\r\nSOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THE\r\nCONVECTIVE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS FAIRLY SMALL...DELTA\r\nHAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE PROVIDED BY ITS DEVELOPMENT AS A\r\nNON-TROPICAL LOW.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0403Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE POSTIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND IF LATER\r\nINFORMATION CONFIRMS THIS THE POSITION AND MOTION MAY NEED SOME\r\nADJUSTMENT ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 155/7.  DELTA IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST...AND A HIGH-AMPLITUDE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE WEST. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HR AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA MOVES\r\nEASTWARD.  BY 72 HR...THIS TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING JUST WEST OF\r\nDELTA...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS EITHER FORMING ANOTHER AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE STORM OR SPLITTING THE STORM IN TWO AS A\r\nRESULT.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW DELTA TO CONTINUE MORE\r\nSOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nBACK TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  BY 72 HR...THE FALLING\r\nPRESSURES WEST OF THE STORM SHOULD MOVE IT ALONG FASTER TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR DELTA\r\nTO CONTINUE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT\r\nSLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFDL.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 30\r\nKT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER DELTA.  HOWEVER...THE STORM DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR QUITE THAT BADLY SHEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL JET\r\nSTREAM TO PERSIST NEAR OR JUST WEST OF DELTA THROUGH 48 HR...AND\r\nHOW MUCH THE STORM STRENGTHENS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR AWAY IT CAN\r\nSTAY FROM THAT SHEAR.  BETWEEN 48-72 HR...THERE IS A CHANCE THE\r\nSHEAR COULD DECREASE FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE NEW SHORTWAVE\r\nAMPLIFIES WEST OF DELTA...BUT BY THAT TIME THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE\r\nMOVING INTO COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT DELTA WILL AVOID THE WORST OF THE\r\nSHEAR THROUGH 72 HR...WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHR FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR.  AFTER 72 HR...\r\nINCREASING SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW\r\nLOW WEST OF DELTA COULD CAUSE THE STORM TO START EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION AS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED\r\nON SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 24.7N  39.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 24.2N  39.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 23.9N  39.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.2N  39.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.9N  39.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.0N  39.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 31.0N  40.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 34.0N  41.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-11-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU NOV 24 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE DELTA HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND A 24/0826Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED SEVERAL 60-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. THESE WINDS WERE IN AREAS OF NO OR WEAK RAIN REGIONS... SO\r\nTHEY ARE CONSIDERED TO BE VALID... ESPECIALLY SINCE THOSE VECTORS\r\nAND THE ENTIRE EYE WERE SURROUNDED BY A LARGER AREA 50-55 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS. DELTA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE... AND THE ONLY\r\nREASON THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN WAS DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY\r\nCONVECTION IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING AROUND THE EYE FEATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/02 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nRECENT SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DELTA MAY HAVE\r\nBOTTOMED OUT AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE TROUGH/CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED. THE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO TAKE DELTA SLOWLY SOUTHWEST AND THEN WESTWARD BEFORE\r\nTURNING IT BACK TO THE NORTH... DESPITE THE BROAD COUNTER-CLOCKWISE\r\nMOTION THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. WHILE IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT DELTA COULD MAKE SOME SMALL LOOPS OR WOBBLES TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK\r\nTO THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION... BUT THEN COMES BACK ON TRACK\r\nBY 72-120 HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN BY 120H IS EXPECTED DUE TO \r\nSOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA.\r\n\r\nDELTA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ALONG\r\n38-39N LATITUDE. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO\r\nDECREASE AND FOR ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW TO DEVELOP. THE 300 MB WINDS\r\nARE DEPICTED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AS BEING AT LEAST 20 KT LESS\r\nTHAN THEY ARE 200 MB... SO THE SHIPS MODEL VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS\r\nOF 42 KT APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. THE MODELS MAINTAIN RELATIVELY\r\nWEAK 300 MB WINDS OVER DELTA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SO THERE\r\nIS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS\r\nBEFORE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR KICKS IN BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 24.8N  38.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 24.8N  38.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 25.3N  38.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 25.9N  38.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 26.6N  38.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 29.0N  39.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 32.0N  40.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 34.0N  41.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-11-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE FEATURE MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS BECOME RAGGED\r\nAND LESS DISTINCT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT DELTA MAY HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN\r\n14-16Z WHEN THE EYE WAS BEST DEFINED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB/SAB AND A 1638Z UW-CIMSS INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 978 MB AND 72 KT. WHILE THE AMSU WIND ESTIMATE IS\r\nPROBABLY TOO HIGH FOR A HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE DELTA...\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED SINCE\r\n0519Z... SUGGESTING THAT DELTA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH... IF\r\nANY... SINCE THEN. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2048Z MAY PROVIDE SOME\r\nQUANTITATIVE WIND INFORMATION TO HELP SETTLE THIS QUESTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE MAY\r\nBE DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AT LESS AT 1 KT. THERE REMAINS\r\nESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.\r\nALL OF THE NHC MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET MODEL... NOW DRIFT\r\nDELTA SLOWLY SOUTH OR EASTWARD... BEFORE TURING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD IN 36-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT... ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT\r\nNOGAPS AND THE GFDN TAKE DELTA NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. NOGAPS SHOWS SOME BINARY INTERACTION OCCURRING\r\nWITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST\r\nOF DELTA BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS\r\nINTERACTION BY A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 96-120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDELTA HAS REMAINED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WHERE THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS THE LEAST. HOWEVER... CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY HAVE SLID OVER THE TOP OF\r\nDELTA... WHICH HAS HELPED TO SUPPRESS THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.\r\nWHILE THE EYE FEATURE IS LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER... CONVECTION\r\nHAS ACTUALLY INCREASED SLIGHTLY AROUND THE CENTER... SO THERE IS\r\nSTILL SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR DELTA TO BRIEFLY STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR INDUCES SLOW WEAKENING BY 36-48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 24.6N  38.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N  38.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 25.5N  38.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  38.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 27.1N  39.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 29.5N  39.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 34.0N  41.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-11-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU NOV 24 2005\r\n \r\nDELTA HAS A BAND OF FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-60C IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE INNER CORE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED APPRECIABLY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55\r\nKT... WHILE CIRA AND CIMSS ESTIMATES BASED ON AN AMSU OVERPASS AT\r\n2023Z WERE 60 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT\r\n21Z PROVIDED SEEMINGLY UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 55 KT\r\nJUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION... AND THE WINDS ARE LIKELY A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 60 KT USING A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA ALSO REVEAL THAT THE WIND FIELD IS NOT QUITE AS LARGE\r\nAS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY... SO THE INITIAL AND FORECAST 34 KT RADII\r\nHAVE BEEN DECREASED SOMEWHAT.\r\n \r\nDELTA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAT ABOUT 5 KT... APPARENTLY INFLUENCED BY THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO\r\nITS WEST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nTHAT HAVE INITIALIZED THE POSITION AND MOTION REASONABLY WELL...\r\nFORECAST THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY AND CORRESPONDINGLY FOR\r\nDELTA TO EXPERIENCE LITTLE NET MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nWITH A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO REPLACE THE RIDGE\r\nWITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS... DELTA SHOULD THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHEAST AS ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...\r\nWHICH IS AN EASTWARD SHIFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A\r\nPOTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR... HOWEVER... IS A SEPARATE SURFACE\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF DELTA IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THE NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE MODELS\r\nGENERALLY AGREE THAT DELTA WILL REMAIN SEPARATED FAR ENOUGH EAST\r\nFROM THAT SYSTEM AND NOT BE DRAWN WESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD... BUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS IN THE MODELS IS\r\nQUITE COMPLEX AND COULD CHANGE.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nDO NOT ANTICIPATE DELTA BECOMING A HURRICANE... IT COULD STILL DO\r\nSO FOR A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE REMAINING\r\nSO CLOSE TO THAT INTENSITY.  WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THEREAFTER DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHWARD OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 23.7N  39.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 23.4N  39.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 23.7N  39.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  38.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.1N  38.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 29.0N  38.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 34.0N  34.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-11-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT DELTA HAS BECOME\r\nLESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HR...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION\r\nCURRENTLY CONFINED TO RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NON-EXISTENT\r\nELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS REDUCED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 220/3...BASED ON A 6 HR MOTION.  AT THIS\r\nTIME...DELTA IS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS EAST OF A WEAKENING\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nERRATIC MOTION...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY. \r\nAFTER 24 HR...FALLING PRESSURES WEST OF DELTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nAPPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW SHOULD MOVE\r\nTHE STORM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD.  THE VARIOUS TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON THIS THROUGH 48 HR...THEN ARE EVEN MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE IN TURNING DELTA EASTWARD IN WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH OVER WESTERN EUROPE THAN THEY WERE 6 HR AGO. \r\nWHILE THE MODELS AGREE WELL ON THE EASTWARD MOTION...THIS WAS NOT\r\nTHE CASE 12 HR AGO...AND IT WILL TAKE A RUN OR TWO MORE SHOWING\r\nTHIS MOTION BEFORE THE FORECAST TRACK CAN FULLY FOLLOW IT.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HR...\r\nAND SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED TO A MORE EASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...THE TRACK IS ALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND IS SLOWER THAN ALL THE MODELS SAVE THE UKMET.  IF\r\nSUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE FORECASTING A FASTER EASTWARD\r\nMOTION...AND IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR THAT DELTA WILL NOT BE ABSORBED\r\nINTO THE NEW LOW TO THE WEST...ADDITIONAL REVISIONS TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN LATER ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nTHE TREND OF DECREASING ORGANIZATION REDUCES THE CHANCE THAT DELTA\r\nWILL BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL FORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE STORM WEAKENS AND MOVES\r\nEASTWARD...AND THIS MAY ALREADY BE UNDERWAY.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THUS CHANGED TO SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS\r\nDELTA MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION AS THE STORM TURNS EASTWARD SOUTH OF THE EUROPEAN\r\nTROUGH.  IF THE SHEAR INCREASES AS MUCH AS THE MODELS ARE\r\nSUGGESTING...DELTA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 23.7N  39.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 23.6N  39.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.0N  39.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.0N  38.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 26.8N  37.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 31.0N  34.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 32.0N  28.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 32.0N  21.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-11-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI NOV 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE THE PAST 6 HOURS...\r\nWITH ONLY A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. DELTA HAS MOVED WEST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND\r\nIS NOW UNDERNEATH 30-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS... WITH 50-70 KT WINDS\r\nLOCATED 60 NMI TO THE WEST AS INDICATED IN A 25/1200Z UW-CIMSS\r\nWATER VAPOR WIND ANALYSIS. THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55\r\nKT BASED ON A 25/0800Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT STILL SHOWED A\r\nFEW 55-KT WIND VECTORS NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 210/4...BASED ON A 12-HR AVERAGE. MOST OF THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DELTA SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... AND THEN TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST. WITH THE LONE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nCLIPER AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS... THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS TAKE DELTA NORTHEAST AND THEN RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER 72\r\nHOURS TO NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS OR MOROCCO. HOWEVER... THERE IS A\r\nBIG QUESTION AS TO JUST HOW VERTICALLY DEEP DELTA WILL BE IN THE\r\nLATER PERIODS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND OTHER MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 40-50 KT FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY THE WEST. THOSE HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS\r\n...COUPLED WITH THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR LOCATED JUST WEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...MAY RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATIONS... WITH THE LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINING BEHIND TO INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF DELTA IN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER BAMS MODEL.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DELTA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER\r\nWATER... THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND\r\nVERY DRY AIR SHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT AND PERSISTENCE OF ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER... RESULTING IN A\r\nGRADUAL SPINDOWN OF THE WIND FIELD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL... WHICH EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 23.2N  39.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 23.3N  39.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 24.0N  38.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  38.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 27.1N  36.9W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 30.5N  34.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 31.0N  29.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 30.0N  24.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-11-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MADE A SLIGHT COMEBACK WITH SOME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -70C HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED\r\nAND BECOME MORE RAGGED LOOKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY OF\r\nT3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND AN INCREASING AMSU PRESSURE\r\nESTIMATE OF 983 MB FROM BOTH UW-CIMSS AND NESDIS-CIRA AT 25/1629Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/03 KT...ALTHOUGH THE 6-HR MOTION HAS BEEN\r\n230/05. THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST\r\nTHAT DELTA WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...\r\nDESPITE THE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE\r\nEXCEPTION REMAINS THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL AND NOW THE UKMET MODEL...\r\nWHICH TAKE DELTA SLOWLY CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS... AND THEN TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWEST AND WESTWARD AFTER\r\nTHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND THE BAMS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS... AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nNHC MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO DELTA EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE\r\nVERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE AND POSSIBLY INTERACT WITH AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED MILES\r\nTO THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT... THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHE 96- AND 120-HR FORECAST POSITIONS.\r\n\r\nDELTA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 78-79F SST WATER...\r\nWHICH HAS LIKELY HELPED RE-INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND VERY\r\nDRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION\r\nFROM PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO\r\nDISSIPATE DELTA BY 96 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND UNDERNEATH INCREASING NORTHWEST TO\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 23.0N  40.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 23.4N  39.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.3N  38.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  38.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  36.8W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.4N  34.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 30.5N  29.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 30.0N  25.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-11-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI NOV 25 2005\r\n \r\nWIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO RESULT IN THE CONVECTION BEING RELEGATED TO\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ALMOST COMPLETELY\r\nEXPOSED... BUT THE CONVECTION JUST TO ITS EAST IS STILL FAIRLY\r\nDEEP.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 2020Z REVEALED 45 KT WINDS JUST\r\nOUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION... AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SINCE\r\nTHEN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN ARE\r\nSTILL T3.0/45 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50\r\nKT.  HOWEVER... A STEADY WEAKENING TREND APPEARS IMMINENT... AS\r\nWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER DELTA DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nNORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND DEEPEN. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY IN\r\nANTICIPATING DELTA TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ONLY ABOUT 36\r\nMORE HOURS.\r\n\r\nDELTA HAS BEEN MOVING DUE SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING\r\nTHIS MOTION TO CEASE SHORTLY AND FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO\r\nBEGIN SOMETIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST\r\nA NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM WEST OF DELTA IN 36-48\r\nHOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nFROM THE WEST.  SINCE DELTA WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN QUITE A BIT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... IT IS NOT LIKELY TO MOVE AS QUICKLY\r\nEASTWARD AS MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING... AND IT COULD EVEN\r\nBE DRAWN WESTWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE NEW LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM FORECAST TO DEVELOP.  HOWEVER... THE MODELS THAT DEPICT AN\r\nAPPROPRIATELY WEAK DELTA ALSO SUGGEST THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE\r\nITS CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL NOT SURVIVE BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS AS\r\nBECOMES ENTANGLED IN A FRONTAL ZONE.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 21.9N  39.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 22.7N  39.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 23.8N  38.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 25.7N  36.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 28.2N  33.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  32.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-11-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS NOW 40 KT...AND AS A RESULT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS NOW MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A BIT\r\nGENEROUS.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO SHOULD\r\nPROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF DELTA.\r\n\r\nDELTA HAS STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD MOTION AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nSEEMS TO BE MOVING DUE EAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN 090/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 59W FROM 20N-32N...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW NEAR 31N37W.  SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER WESTERN EUROPE AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC\r\nNORTH OF 30N EAST OF 20W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THIS\r\nTROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE WEST OF DELTA\r\nMOVES SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFIES...CREATING A NEW SURFACE LOW\r\nWEST OF THE STORM.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE DELTA TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR WITH SOME ACCELERATION...\r\nTHEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE EASTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EUROPEAN TROUGH.  MOST LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SHOW A WEAKENING DELTA NEAR NORTHEASTERN AFRICA IN ABOUT 72\r\nHR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT THE NEW SURFACE\r\nLOW COULD TRY TO ABSORB DELTA...WHICH WOULD KEEP IT FROM MOVING\r\nEASTWARD AS QUICKLY AS THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.  THEREFORE...\r\nWHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A FASTER EASTWARD MOTION\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT WILL BE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR OVER DELTA DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HR...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK.  THUS...THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE.  DELTA SHOULD ENCOUNTER THE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE EUROPEAN TROUGH IN ABOUT 48 HR AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...THEN\r\nLOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 72-96 HR.  EVEN IF DELTA IS SLOWER TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD INTO COLD AIR AND COLD WATER THAN FORECAST...THE STRONG\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 21.9N  39.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.5N  38.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.4N  36.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 26.7N  33.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 28.3N  30.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 29.0N  26.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-11-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005\r\n\r\nDELTA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. DELTA SHOULD\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO.    \r\n \r\nDELTA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN\r\nTHE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES\r\nWEST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE.\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STEERING PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO ASSUME\r\nANOTHER SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 22.4N  38.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 23.1N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  34.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  31.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.0N  27.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  15.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-11-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005\r\n \r\nDELTA CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONFINED TO A CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER... THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND THE CENTER HAS\r\nBECOME LESS DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN\r\nSTRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED AND DELTA SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A\r\nDAY OR SO AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nDELTA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES\r\nAT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES WEST. THEN...A TURN TO THE\r\nEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA\r\nBECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nLARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE. THIS IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 23.2N  36.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  35.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  31.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 28.5N  26.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N  20.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-11-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005\r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS BEEN PERSISTING\r\nTHIS EVENING DOWNSHEAR OR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOSTLY\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO\r\nTHE CENTER FOR DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO REMAIN 2.5 CORRESPONDING TO 35\r\nKT.  WHILE THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 20Z MISSED MOST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION... IT DID REVEAL 30 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT... AND SINCE THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY\r\nSTEADY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS... DELTA COULD REMAIN A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WELL INTO SUNDAY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A\r\nSTORM OUT TO 24 HOURS... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE\r\nSHEAR TO TAKE SOME OF ITS TOLL SOONER THAN THAT.  DELTA SHOULD BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL OVER COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND EVENTUALLY\r\nBECOME STRETCHED OUT AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\nDELTA IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 18 KT... PERHAPS EVEN FASTER OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS.  A CONTINUED ACCELERATION ALONG THIS SAME HEADING\r\nIS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER... A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST AS DELTA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER\r\nWESTERN EUROPE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS PATH BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS... CONSIDERING THE ALREADY QUITE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 24.2N  34.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 25.8N  32.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 27.8N  27.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 28.5N  22.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N  15.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-11-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005\r\n \r\nDELTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C\r\nOR COLDER.  IN FACT...THE CONVECTION IS ABOUT AS STRONG AS IT HAS\r\nBEEN DURING THE LIFETIME OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE STORM MIGHT BE AS STRONGER THAN 35 KT.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE HIGHLY\r\nDEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER WITH RESPECT TO THE DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT.  WESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OF\r\nDELTA...IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IN VIEW OF THE\r\nCURRENT VIGOR OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...ONLY SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.  OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST\r\nSYSTEM...GFS...SHOWS DELTA INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE...AND\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nGENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD NEAR 21 KT.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS LIKELY AS DELTA OR ITS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL COUNTERPART COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nTHE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER\r\nWESTERN EUROPE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24\r\nHOURS...WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 25.6N  32.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 27.4N  29.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 28.8N  24.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 28.8N  17.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 28.8N  11.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-11-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005\r\n \r\nDELTA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCYCLONE STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT SHEARED...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1042Z ALSO HINTS THAT\r\nDELTA IS NOT QUITE AS WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS. THIS MORNING'S\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS MISSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO\r\n55 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO MATCH THE LOWER\r\nEND OF THIS RANGE.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WOULD BE INCREASED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON SHOULD A BETTER CO-LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER WITH\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGARDLESS...WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER DELTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE... AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD RESUME BY\r\nTOMORROW AT THE LATEST.  OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA\r\nINTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24\r\nHOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/23...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO\r\nDIFFICULTY PLACING THE CENTER.  DELTA IS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND\r\nA MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...BUT WILL SOON BE FORCED EASTWARD BY\r\nTHE FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER WESTERN\r\nEUROPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  A SOMEWHAT SLOWER TRACK\r\nWOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEAR OFF FROM\r\nTHE FLOW ALOFT.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24\r\nHOURS...WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 27.7N  30.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 29.0N  27.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  21.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  15.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  10.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-11-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DELTA\r\nHAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS CENTER A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...SHIP VQIB9\r\nREPORTED 60 KT WINDS ABOUT 50 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z.  THE\r\nSHIP...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF GOOD OBSERVATIONS...ALSO REPORTED A\r\nPRESSURE OF 991 MB AND 25 FT SEAS.  ON THE BASIS OF THIS\r\nREPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO\r\nDETERIORATE...HOWEVER...AND NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nCONSIDERED LIKELY.  BY TOMORROW...DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATER WITH\r\nINCREASING SHEAR.  OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA\r\nINTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  REGARDLESS OF ITS\r\nSTATUS...DELTA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY\r\nISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND GALES COULD REACH THE COAST OF\r\nMOROCCO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/23. DELTA IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER LOW OVER WESTERN EUROPE.\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TO THE EAST AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 29.0N  28.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 29.8N  24.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  19.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 29.7N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 29.3N   9.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-11-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED... BUT SOME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING THIS EVENING NOT FAR TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  DELTA STILL MOSTLY HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED\r\nTROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH IT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME\r\nNON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION... AND DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO PUNCH IN FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED\r\nESTIMATES AND ON CONTINUITY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO\r\n55 KT.  DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATERS TOMORROW AND EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER... DELTA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY ISLANDS IN ABOUT\r\n18 HOURS AND TO THE COAST OF MOROCCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDELTA IS GRADUALLY TURNING MORE EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 070/23.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY\r\nSTRAIGHTFORWARD... AS DELTA IS GETTING CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLY\r\nCURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nFAR EASTERN ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF DELTA... TOWARD MOROCCO...\r\nBUT WITH DISAGREEMENTS ON SPEED WHICH ARE OFTEN THE CASE WITH\r\nRAPIDLY MOVING SYSTEMS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  MOST OF THE MODELS HANG ON TO DELTA AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nAFRICA.  THEREAFTER... THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED WITHIN\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 29.3N  26.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 30.0N  22.3W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  16.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 29.5N  10.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 29.0N   5.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-11-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005\r\n \r\nDELTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONALLY ELONGATED AND...\r\nALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE PERSISTING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO\r\nASSUME THAT OF A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM.  BASED ON SOME\r\nNON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.  A FRONTAL ZONE IS IN THE VICINITY...\r\nAS EVIDENCED BY COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE STORM.  THICKNESS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FORECASTS FROM THE\r\nGFS DEPICT DELTA AS A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. \r\nTHEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF\r\nDELTA SHOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CANARY AND\r\nMADEIRA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DELTA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY\r\nTO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF EAST NEAR 25 KT.   A \r\nGENERALLY ZONAL CURRENT...PREVAILING AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS...\r\nSHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK INTO\r\nMOROCCO...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS.  THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 30.2N  23.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.3N  18.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 30.3N  13.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 30.3N   7.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 30.0N   2.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Delta","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-11-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\n...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A MID-\r\nLATITUDE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DELTA HAS MERGED WITH AN\r\nEAST-WEST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM AND... AS A RESULT...\r\nIS RAPIDLY ACQUIRING EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED ON NUMEROUS 50-55 KT\r\nWIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A 28/0642Z HI-RES\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS. SINCE THOSE WIND VECTORS WERE LOCATED IN THE\r\nRAIN-FREE DRY SLOT... THEY ARE CONSIDERED BE VALID.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/26 KT. WHILE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE... THE\r\nBROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF DELTA APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED EASTWARD\r\nAND HAS REMAINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...DESPITE 60\r\nKT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO\r\nAMPLIFY AND DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF DELTA AS IT SWINGS\r\nEASTWARD... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A\r\nGENERAL EASTWARD DIRECTION AT 25-30 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...\r\nTHE CENTER OF DELTA IS EXPECTED TO PASS BETWEEN THE CANARY AND\r\nMADEIRA ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO BY TUESDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF DELTA\r\nAPPEARS TO BE GIVING THE SYSTEM A SHOT OF ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC\r\nENERGY. GIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND THE 25-30\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE... I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP DELTA AS A\r\nSTORM SYSTEM UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MOROCCAN COAST.\r\nHOWEVER... GALE FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL SOUTH OF WHERE\r\nTHE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL AND COULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN COASTAL\r\nAREAS OF MAURITANIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REACH THOSE AREAS AT\r\nLEAST 6 HOURS BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES IT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH\r\nTO THOSE LAND MASSES/COUNTRIES. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER OVER\r\nHIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS... AND IN THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN LOCATED EAST OF MARRAKESH MOROCCO.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON DELTA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN METEO-FRANCE ATLANTIQUE\r\nMETAREA-II MARINE FORECASTS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW...\r\nAND IN MARINE BULLETINS ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER FONT50 LFPW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 30.3N  20.1W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  15.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N   9.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 30.7N   3.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER LAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-11-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS\r\n...AND 29/0938Z QUIKSCAT SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THE LARGE\r\nNON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 730 NMI EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM EPSILON...THE 26TH NAMED STORM OF THE\r\nAPPARENTLY NEVER ENDING 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON BLEND OF 40-KT QUIKSCAT WINDS IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT AND A 29/0800Z 996.0 MB...EQUAL TO APPROXIMATELY\r\n55 KT... PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 41543 THAT WAS LOCATED ABOUT 90\r\nNMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07 KT. EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-LATITUDE RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN AND NORTHEASTWARD AS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND BEGINS TO TURN EPSILON\r\nBACK TOWARD THE EAST. BY 96 HOURS... EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR\r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nEPSILON IS LOCATED OVER 25C SSTS... WHICH IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM\r\nENOUGH TO SUPPORT AT LEAST MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH A\r\nBANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS... THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS APPEAR TO MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF\r\nSLOW DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. AS SUCH... INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE SLOWER THAN USUAL. HOWEVER... IF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AROUND THE CENTER... THEN MORE AND\r\nEARLIER STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR THAN WHAT IS FORECAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS\r\nHIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 31.6N  50.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 31.7N  51.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 31.8N  53.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 32.0N  54.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 32.7N  53.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 33.5N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 35.0N  45.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 37.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-11-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE EARLIER RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS\r\nDISAPPEARED. HOWEVER... OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nIMPROVED AND SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTER. A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT WAS NOTED BY THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES.\r\nHOWEVER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER AT 45 KT BASED ON A 29/1700Z PRESSURE OF 999.0 MB FROM BUOY\r\n41543 LOCATED ABOUT 120 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... AND SEVERAL\r\nSHIP REPORTS OF 30 KT AT 200-250 NMI FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/07 KT... ALTHOUGH EPSILON\r\nHAS MADE A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWARD WOBBLE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A\r\nWEAK LOW LOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nSECONDARY LOW IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSHORTLY RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT EPSILON WILL MOVE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE 24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN 36-48\r\nHOURS AS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOP OFF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND... THE DEEP-\r\nLAYER FLOW EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BECOMES WEST TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY... WHICH SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT OUT EPSILON TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE\r\nINFLOW OF LOW-LEVEL WARM UNSTABLE AIR. HOWEVER... AS THE LOW SHEARS\r\nOUT TO THE NORTHEAST... THE INFLOW INTO THE CENTER OF EPSILON\r\nSHOULD RESUME AND CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE EPSILON IS\r\nLOCATED OVER 24.5-25C SSTS... WHICH IS ABOUT 1C WARMER THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. SINCE EPSILON IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN OVER 24-25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS REAOSNABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE THE SHIPS MODEL AND REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE GFDL\r\nMODEL... WHICH ONLY FORECASTS EPSILON TO REACH 42 KT IN 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 31.4N  51.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 31.5N  52.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 31.7N  53.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 32.4N  53.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 32.8N  52.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 33.6N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 35.5N  44.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 40.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-11-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE NOV 29 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE ITS POSITION NEAR THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW SUGGESTS THAT EPSILON HAS NOT FULLY SHED SUBTROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED BENEATH THE\r\nPERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nADDITIONALLY...A TRMM OVERPASS AT 2051Z AND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT\r\n2155Z BOTH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FORMED AN INNER WIND CORE\r\nMORE CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nSHOWING 40 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE SUBTROPICAL 45-50 KT FROM TAFB...AND TROPICAL 35 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...EPSILON REMAINS A 45 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FOR THIS PACKAGE.  AN AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 02Z MAY PROVIDE\r\nMORE INFORMATION ON THE THERMAL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/7.  EPSILON...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nIT IS EMBEDDED IN....ARE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS MOVING\r\nEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN CANADA INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HR...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE MOVE INTO THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS EVOLUTION\r\nSHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD FOR 12-24 HR...THEN ALLOW\r\nRECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS\r\nAND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST EPSILON TO MOVE MORE EASTWARD...WHILE\r\nTHE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LIE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST EPSILON TO REMAIN NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR 24-36 HR.  WHILE THIS IS NOT THE BEST PLACE\r\nFOR TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM A THERMODYNAMIC STANDPOINT...THIS WILL\r\nLIKELY KEEP THE VERTICAL SHEAR AT LIGHT TO MODERATE LEVELS AND\r\nALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR\r\nTHE STORM TO REACH 60 KT IN 36 HR...WHICH IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AFTER THAT...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AND\r\nMOVE EASTWARD...EXPOSING THE STORM TO SHEAR.  ALSO...THE FORECAST\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TURN SHOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES COLDER THAN THE CURRENTLY MARGINAL-AT-BEST 23C.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THEN...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nMERGE WITH EPSILON IN ABOUT 72 HR...EVENTUALLY CAUSING THE STORM TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE TRMM AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE WIND FIELD OF EPSILON IS\r\nABOUT TO JOIN THE LARGE AREA OF NORTHEASTERLY FLOW LOCATED\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  IF THIS HAPPENS...THE WIND RADII IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN QUADRANT MAY NEED SIGNIFICANT REVISION.  IN THE LONGER\r\nTERM...THE SIZE OF THE 34 KT WIND FIELD AT 72 HR WAS REDUCED BASED\r\nON THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOT SHOWING A VIGOROUS OUTER ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 31.4N  51.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 31.4N  53.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 31.6N  53.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 32.0N  53.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 32.8N  53.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  48.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 37.0N  43.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 40.5N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-11-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF EPSILON IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL ON SATELLITE\r\nAND IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE DETACHED FROM A FRONTAL\r\nCLOUD BAND LOCATED TO THE EAST. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45\r\nKNOTS AND BASED ON QUIKSCAT AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE EPSILON IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LIGHT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF AN UPPER-LOW...SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEARING\r\nTHE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND MOST LIKELY EPSILON WILL THEN\r\nBEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nEPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS...\r\nSTEERED BY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS\r\nFEATURE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY. EPSILON SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND THEN TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHARPLY TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A ABOUT A DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 31.2N  52.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 31.0N  53.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 31.5N  54.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 32.5N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 33.0N  51.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 35.5N  47.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 38.0N  42.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 40.5N  37.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-11-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED NOV 30 2005\r\n\r\nCOREECTED INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 50 KT TO 55 KT\r\n \r\nEPSILON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATING CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED MORE THAN 75 PERCENT\r\nAROUND THE CENTER... WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED BANDING EYE FEATURE\r\nPOSSIBLY DEVELOPING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...AND\r\nAND AFWA ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER... A 30/0913Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED WHAT APPEARS TO BE VALID 55 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS 260/08. STRONG RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE IN A WOBBLY WESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED\r\nAS EPSILON MOVES INTO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA\r\nAND THE U.S. EAST COAST. BY 36 HOURS... EPSILON IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOW/STALL AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AHEAD\r\nOF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST BY 48 HOURS. THE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING FLOW SHOULD ACCELERATE EPSILON TO THE NORTHEAST OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OVER MUCH COLDER WATER... WITH EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION OCCURRING BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS DUE TO A NORTHWARD BIAS BY THE GFS MODEL AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER... DRY MID-LEVEL\r\nAIR HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER IN WATER VAPOR AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT EPSILON IS LOCATED OVER\r\nMARGINAL SSTS OF 23-24C AND THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS... ONLY SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING OCCURS. HOWEVER\r\n...EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL STORM\r\nSYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM\r\nTHE APPROACHING U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 30.7N  53.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 30.9N  54.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 31.6N  54.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 32.4N  52.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 33.5N  51.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 35.5N  47.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 38.0N  42.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 40.0N  37.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-11-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE THE DEPTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED... THE OVERALL INNER AND OUTER CONVECTIVE PATTERNS\r\nHAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nRAGGED 30 NMI DIAMETER EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 45 KT... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA... RESPECTIVELY. THE LOWER\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MAINLY DUE TO THE WARM CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE\r\nNOT ALLOWING FOR SOLID BANDING FEATURES ACCORDING TO THE DVORAK\r\nRULES... WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONES LIKE\r\nEPSILON. HOWEVER... A 30/1008Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 991 MB...\r\nTHE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE... AND THE EYE FEATURE ARE THE\r\nBASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/06. THE MODELS HAVE ALL INDICATED THAT\r\nEPSILON WOULD MOVE WEST AND THEN NORTH BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD\r\n...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS INSTEAD MOVED SOUTHWEST AND NOW SOUTHWARD.\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG WRAPAROUND SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A\r\nSMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP BEFORE EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY 36\r\nHOURS. THE MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE STEERING FLOW\r\nBECOMING WESTERLY AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... AND IS A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER... IF EPSILON KEEPS\r\nMOVING SOUTHWARD... SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO BE\r\nSHIFTED MORE TO THE SOUTH... WHICH COULD RESULT IN EPSILON PASSING\r\nMUCH CLOSER TO THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 120 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nTHE SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS RESULTED IN EPSILON MOVING OVER WARMER\r\nWATER... AS INDICATED BY NEARBY BUOY REPORTS OF 76-77F SSTS. CIRRUS\r\nCLOUD MOTIONS ALSO INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nHAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER. JUST A MODEST INCREASE IN CONVECTION\r\nIS NEEDED TO MAKE EPSILON A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE OVER THE WARMEST WATER AND IN THE LOWEST SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS... AFTER WHICH INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING.\r\nHOWEVER... EPSILON IS FORECAST REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DUE TO INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 29.8N  54.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 30.5N  54.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 31.1N  53.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 32.1N  51.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 33.2N  50.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  46.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 37.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 39.0N  36.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-12-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED NOV 30 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN THIS\r\nEVENING AROUND A RATHER RAGGED EYE.  WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE\r\nCOOLED THE PAST FEW HOURS...THEY ARE NOT YET COLD ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY\r\nAN UPGRADE TO A HURRICANE...AS THE MAXIMUM SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWS WINDS OF\r\nNO MORE THAN 50 KT...WHICH IS A BIT LESS THAN SEEN ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nPASS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2122Z AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED A WARM CORE\r\nAND AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 66 KT.  GIVEN THE COOLING\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS AND THE UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  HOWEVER...IF THE QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA IS RIGHT...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS. \r\n \r\nEPSILON HAS TURNED SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW 135/5...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN\r\nMORE EASTWARD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EPSILON REMAINS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE...WHICH IS SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO\r\n42N40W.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT ARE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND\r\nWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE TROUGH HAS SPREAD EASTWARD TO\r\nNEAR 31N60W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO CONTINUE\r\nTO WEAKEN...WITH THE TROUGH PICKING UP EPSILON/DEEP-LAYER LOW AND\r\nMOVING IT GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE STORM IS WELL SOUTH OF THE STRONGEST MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE\r\nTOO QUICKLY.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  IT CALLS\r\nFOR A GENERALLY NORTHEATWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...BUT NEVER\r\nFASTER THAN ABOUT 10 KT.  THE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nEPSILON IS CURRENTLY OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ANY\r\nINCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW HAS DECREASED AS WESTERLY SHEAR STARTS\r\nAFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING SHOULD CLOSE IN 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING\r\nSHEAR...COOLER SSTS...AND THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TR ANSITON. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR 12\r\nHR...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF NUDGE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS NOT\r\nIMPOSSIBLE.  AFTER 12 HR...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...WITH EPSILON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 29.6N  53.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 30.0N  53.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 30.9N  51.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  49.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 33.0N  48.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 34.5N  44.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 36.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 37.5N  35.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-12-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005\r\n \r\nSOME GRADUAL COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN SEMICIRCLES... BUT THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT... WITH THE\r\nWEAKER END OF THIS RANGE DERIVED USING THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AND\r\nTHE HIGHER END USING AN EYE PATTERN.  SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nNOT WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER... THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD... BUT ONLY TO 55 KT.  THE NEXT\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS IS OCCURRING AT THIS HOUR... AND ONCE THAT DATA\r\nARRIVES IT MIGHT HELP CLARIFY THE INTENSITY.  THERE IS NO OBVIOUS\r\nREASON TO ARGUE FOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AS THE SHEAR SHOULD NOT INCREASE\r\nMARKEDLY AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK.  THE GFDL FORECASTS BRIEF STRENGTHENING TO\r\nABOUT 60 KT LATER THIS MORNING BUT OTHERWISE FORECASTS THE\r\nINTENSITY TO REMAIN IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES A GRADUAL DECLINE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND CALLS FOR A LITTLE WEAKENING\r\nBEFORE EPSILON LIKELY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nOVER 22C WATERS.\r\n\r\nEPSILON HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 075/10 WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS OR SO.  EPSILON IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nOVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC... BUT THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMIDLATITUDE PATTERN IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND A RIDGE DOMINATING THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  AS THE MIDLATITUDE PATTERN PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD...\r\nEPSILON SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.  HOWEVER... MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT FORECAST EPSILON\r\nTO MOVE VERY FAST... WITH ONE EXCEPTION BEING THE GFS WHICH TAKES\r\nTHE STORM QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD.  EXCEPT FOR BEING FASTER DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS... THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 30.2N  52.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 30.9N  50.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 32.0N  49.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 33.1N  47.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 34.0N  45.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 35.5N  41.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 37.0N  38.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 38.5N  33.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-12-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU DEC 01 2005\r\n \r\nOUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND A RAGGED BANDING\r\nEYE FEATURE APPEARS TO TRYING TO DEVELOP...AGAIN. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT BASED A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... A\r\n01/0944Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 985\r\nMB AND 61 KT WINDS. THE AMSU ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY A LITTLE TOO\r\nINTENSE FOR A SHALLOW HYBRID-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE LIKE EPSILON...\r\nBUT THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN CONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ARGUE FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN THE\r\n45-50 KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 01/0847Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10... ALTHOUGH EPSILON HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS THAT EPSILON\r\nWILL MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION. AFTER THAT...\r\nHOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY INTO TWO CAMPS... WITH\r\nTHE GFDL... GFS... AND CANADIAN MODELS RAPIDLY ACCELERATING EPSILON\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WHEREAS THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDN...\r\nAND ECMWF MOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD\r\nTOWARD THE AZORES. IN FACT... BY 120 HOURS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS STALL EPSILON NEAR 30N 40W. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL BY ALL THE MODELS... THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY AND DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...AND THE RESULTANT INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nTHE BANDING EYE FEATURE AND THE RECENT RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A SMALL\r\nBUT WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTER SUGGEST\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO... AND IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BRIEFLY REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. HOWEVER... BY 24 HOURS THE EFFECTS OF COOLER\r\nWATER AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INDUCE SLOW\r\nBUT STEADY WEAKENING... AND EPSILON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... BARRING ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER\r\nWARMER WATER THAT WOULD PROLONG BOTH THE LIFETIME OF EPSILON AND\r\nTHE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 31.2N  51.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 32.1N  50.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 33.4N  48.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 34.7N  46.7W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 35.6N  45.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 37.5N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 39.5N  36.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 41.5N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-12-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nRAGGED BANDED EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... A VISIBLE EYE\r\nPATTERN OF NEARLY T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND AODT ESTIMATES... AND A\r\n01/1710Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 982 MB/66 KT... WHICH\r\nIS A DECREASE OF 3 MB AND AN INCREASE OF 5 KT FROM THE 01/0944Z\r\nESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/09. EPSILON SEEMS TO HAVE\r\nSTEADIED ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION... AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nSATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE IN WHICH EPSILON IS EMBEDDED IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING MORE WEST TO WESTSOUTHWESTERLY. A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\n12Z GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION\r\nAND CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME MORE\r\nZONAL/WESTERLY IN 48-120 HOURS. EVEN THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nHAVE ABANDONED THEIR PREVIOUS STALLING OF EPSILON TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE AZORES. THE ONLY OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MODELS... WHICH RACE EPSILON NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72\r\nHOURS AND HAVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 120 HOURS. THOSE\r\nTWO MODELS WERE DISCOUNTED SINCE THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BECOME ZONAL WITH TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND\r\nSHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 85 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A\r\nSST OF 77F/25C. SO IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON IS MOVING OVER A NARROW\r\nRIDGE OF WARMER WATER... WHICH COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER... SLOW\r\nBUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 12-24 HOURS AS EPSILON\r\nMOVES OVER 22C AND COLDER SSTS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 31.7N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 32.7N  49.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 34.1N  48.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 35.3N  46.3W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 36.4N  44.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 38.5N  40.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 41.0N  35.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 42.5N  31.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-12-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU DEC 01 2005\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED AND A RAGGED EYE\r\nREMAINS APPARENT...THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nEPSILON HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT.  WHILE THERE IS STILL FAIR\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THERE IS NO\r\nOUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8.  A LARGE-DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD STEER EPSILON\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS FAR\r\nFROM THE CORE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH.  THIS\r\nMEANS EPSILON WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH FASTER THAN IT IS NOW. \r\nTHE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE...WITH THE GFS...\r\nGFDL...AND CANADIAN ACCELERATING EPSILON NORTHWARD...AND THE NOGAPS\r\nAND ECMWF TURNING IT MORE EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD.  GIVEN\r\nTHIS SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nEPSILON WILL BE OVER 22C-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  EXPERIMENTAL CYCLONE PHASE\r\nDIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE THE TRANSITION\r\nCOULD BE DELAYED AS THE COLD FRONT THAT COULD CAUSE IT IS STILL\r\nWELL WEST OF EPSILON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 32.2N  50.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 33.2N  48.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 34.6N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 35.8N  45.2W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 36.9N  43.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 39.0N  39.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 41.0N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 42.5N  31.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-12-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE BAND NORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE\r\nTOPS HAVE RECENTLY BEEN COLDER THAN -60C.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AT\r\n06Z CORRESPONDINGLY CAME UP A LITTLE BUT THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT.  SINCE THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS A LITTLE\r\nMORE CONSOLIDATED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND IS WRAPPING MORE AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER... EPSILON DOES NOT APPEAR WEAKER AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT ON THE HIGH END OF THE RANGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nAT 55 KT.  AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE\r\nEPSILON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  EVEN THOUGH EPSILON WILL BE OVER\r\nSUB-22C WATERS WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS... THE FORECAST TIMING OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REMAINS 36-48 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL\r\nPROBABLY REMAIN SEPARATED FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT ATMOSPHERIC\r\nTEMPERATURE GRADIENTS UNTIL THEN... EVEN IF THE FASTEST AND\r\nNORTHERNMOST MODEL TRACK VERIFIES.\r\n \r\nEPSILON IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT 050/9\r\nKT.  A CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED ARE ANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOR ABOUT THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS... AS EPSILON WILL BE PUSHED AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH THAT IS WELL TO ITS WEST AND ABOUT TO ADVANCE OFF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST.  MODEL FORECASTS BEYOND THAT TIME HANDLE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nEPSILON IN VERY DIFFERENT WAYS.  IF THE GFS AND GFDL ARE\r\nCORRECT...THE STORM WILL BE SWEPT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AND MERGE\r\nWITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS.  HOWEVER... IF THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS ARE RIGHT... EPSILON MIGHT EVEN DIVE\r\nSOUTHWARD ON DAY FIVE AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO ITS WEST. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE... BUT DUE TO THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 32.8N  49.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 33.8N  48.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 35.2N  46.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 36.5N  44.2W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 37.8N  42.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 40.5N  37.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 42.5N  33.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 44.5N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-12-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI DEC 02 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED DATES OF AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\n \r\nDESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY\r\n...EPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A SOLID\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING COMPLETELY AROUND THE CYCLONE CENTER\r\n...WHICH HAS PRODUCED A WELL-DEFINED 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...\r\nESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0920Z\r\nNESDIS/CIRA AMSU PRESSSURE ESTIMATE WAS 986 MB.. AND 02/0920Z\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 985 MB/66 KT. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION... EPSILON HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. THIS\r\nIS NOT UNPRECEDENTED FOR A HURRICANE TO FORM THIS LATE IN THE\r\nSEASON OR OVER THIS PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE NOEL IN\r\nNOVEMBER 2001 FORMED NEAR 38N 50W...ABOUT 250 NMI NORTH OF EPSILON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/12 KT. SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS FROM ALL\r\nTHREE AGENCIES HAVE BEEN COMING IN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\n...SO LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO BECOME MORE CONVERGENT ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARDS... HOWEVER... THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON\r\nHOW THEY HANDLE EPSILON AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE GFDL AND GFDN\r\nTAKE EPSILON MORE NORTHWARD... WHEREAS THE GFS... UKMET... AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD BY 120\r\nHOURS DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION AND/OR MERGER WITH ANOTHER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE AZORES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nREMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSHIP DEDM LOCATED ABOUT 160 NMI EAST OF EPSILON AT 12Z REPORTED A\r\nSST OF 24C/75F... WHICH INDICATES THAT EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nALONG A NARROW RIDGE OF WARMER SSTS. THIS LIKELY EXPLAINS TO A\r\nLARGE DEGREE WHY EPSILON HAS BEEN ABLE TO IMPROVE ITS CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER... BUOYS NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE INDICATE SSTS BELOW 70F ARE LESS THAN 200 NMI AWAY. AS\r\nSUCH... EPSILON SHOULD BEGIN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12-18 HOURS AND PROBABLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 33.7N  48.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 34.6N  46.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 35.8N  45.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 37.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 38.3N  40.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 40.8N  36.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 43.0N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 44.5N  29.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-12-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON HAS MAINTAINED A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE AND THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN HAS REMAINED WELL-ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT T4.0/65 FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND A 02/0701Z\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 982 MB/70 KT. BASED ON\r\nTHIS INFORMATION... EPSILON REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH\r\nIT COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/10 KT. SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES\r\nINDICATE EPSILON HAS REMAINED ON TRACK. UNFORTUNATELY... THAT CAN\r\nNOT BE SAID FOR THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS MADE A HUGE\r\nSHIFT TO THE SOUTH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE\r\nLATEST INTERPOLATED FORECAST TRACK ARE BOTH NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE. OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...HOWEVER... THE MODELS HAVE HAD A\r\nTENDENCY TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY AND THEN SHIFT BACK\r\nNORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS ALONG THE EXTREME NORTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET... ECMWF...\r\nAND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAVE BEEN THE STEADIEST MODELS.\r\nHOPEFULLY THE SOUTHWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS THAT THE GFS...GFS\r\nENSEMBLE... NOGAPS... AND GFDN MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL NOT\r\nMATERIALIZE SO THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON CAN FINALLY END.\r\n\r\nEPSILON HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY... AND STEADY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS OVER TO\r\nA SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGOING BACK TO 1851... HISTORICAL RECORDS INDICATE EPSILON IS ONLY\r\nTHE FIFTH HURRICANE TO FORM DURING THE MONTH OF DECEMBER. OTHER\r\nDECEMBER HURRICANES ARE... UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED 1925... ALICE #2\r\nIN 1954... AND LILI 1984. EPSILON IS ALSO ONLY THE SIXTH HURRICANE\r\nTO EVER OCCUR DURING DECEMBER... INCLUDING UNNAMED 1887... UNNAMED\r\n1925... ALICE #2 IN 1954... LILI 1984... AND NICOLE 1998.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 34.2N  47.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 35.1N  45.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 36.1N  43.9W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 37.2N  41.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 38.4N  39.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 40.5N  35.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 42.5N  31.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 44.0N  28.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-12-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF EPSILON OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 65 KT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THAT MUCH\r\nWIND IS REALLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE MODEST CONVECTION\r\nAND COOL SSTS. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THIS EVENING'S QUIKSCAT\r\nPASSES MISSED THE CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND\r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR\r\nEPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK.  THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO\r\nSCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED\r\nMOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF...\r\nSHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING\r\nSOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY\r\nQUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER\r\nWESTERLIES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON\r\nSHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.  GIVEN THIS...AND\r\nTHE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO\r\nFAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS.  WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE\r\nREQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SO A SLOW\r\nSPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A GRADUAL LOSS OF\r\nCONVECTION AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY TRACK MATERIALIZES...WEAKENING AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED BEYOND WHAT IS INDICATED BELOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 34.5N  46.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 35.2N  45.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 36.1N  42.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 36.9N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 37.5N  38.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 39.0N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 39.0N  30.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-12-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005\r\n\r\nEPSILON CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN EYE...AND IS STILL MAINTAINING\r\nMODEST AMOUNTS OF CONVECTION...WITH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PRIMARILY\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY\r\nBUT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL\r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING KEPT AT HURRICANE STATUS FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE LESS\r\nFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nSOMEWHAT.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS PER THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE HEADED ON A LOWER LATITUDE\r\nTRACK THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...THE PREDICTION OF EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION HAS BEEN DELAYED SLIGHTLY.  INDEED...IF EPSILON BEGINS\r\nTO ACQUIRE A SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...IT COULD\r\nPERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING JUST NORTH\r\nOF DUE EAST...075/08.  EARLIER IT WAS THOUGHT THAT THE FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF A SERIES OF MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHS...MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST\r\nU.S. COAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...WOULD TAKE EPSILON NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\nHOWEVER NOW MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE U.K.\r\nMET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL STEERING\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF THESE TROUGHS WILL DEFLECT NORTHWARD AND NOT PICK UP\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM TURNING TO\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.  ONLY THE U.K. GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS PICKING\r\nUP EPSILON AND CARRYING IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  ALTHOUGH THE UKMET IS A VERY GOOD TRACK FORECAST\r\nMODEL...IT IS ADVISABLE TO BE CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nBUT DOES NOT YET ADMIT A SIZABLE SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 34.6N  45.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  44.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 35.4N  41.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 35.7N  38.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 35.9N  36.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 36.0N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 35.0N  32.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-12-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT DEC 03 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON CONSISTS OF A NARROW RING OF MODERATE CONVECTION...A LARGE\r\nRAGGED EYE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65\r\nKNOTS BASED ON BOTH DVORAK AND AMSU ESTIMATES. EPSILON IS A\r\nTENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH HAS MAINTAINED HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nOVER COOL WATERS AND APPARENT UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.\r\nACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE ONLY PARAMETER WHICH IS\r\nCONTRIBUTING POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY IS THE 200 MB TEMPERATURE.\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BRINGING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nWINDS OVER THE CYCLONE SOON. THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH EVEN\r\nCOLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. HOWEVER...WE HAVE\r\nBEEN EXPECTING SUCH TRANSITION BUT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF THIS\r\nHAPPENING YET.\r\n \r\nEPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST AT 10 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMIDLATITUDE FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK\r\nMODEL...THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BLOCKING HIGH TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF EPSILON AND ANOTHER LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A SLOW MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH A TURN TO\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BY\r\nTHEN...EPSILON IS FORECAST TO HAVE WEAKENED AND I WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISED IF IT HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 34.5N  44.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 34.5N  42.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 34.5N  40.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 34.5N  37.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 34.5N  35.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 33.0N  33.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 31.0N  34.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-12-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AGAINST ALL ODDS. THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A HURRICANE AT HIGH\r\nLATITUDE IN DECEMBER...EMBEDDED IN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nWIND ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER 21-22 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER.\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE BEST SO FAR AND IN FACT...DATA-T\r\nNUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE...SUPPORTING 77 KNOTS. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING OVER COOL WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ONLY\r\nINCREASED TO 70 KNOTS. EPSILON CAN NOT MAINTAIN THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY MUCH LONGER SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE MASS OF\r\nDRY AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS NEARING THE HURRICANE. A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED AND ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR TWO...MOST LIKELY A\r\nGRADUAL SPIN DOWN OVER COLD WATERS WILL OCCUR. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...IT APPEARS THAT\r\nEPSILON IS RUNNING AWAY FROM THE APPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE\r\nUK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AND UNANIMOUSLY...\r\nALL MODELS TURN EPSILON TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AFTER A SMALL PERIOD\r\nOF SLOW MOTION BETWEEN A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE NORTH AND DEVELOPING\r\nLOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS MAKES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST A LITTLE MORE\r\nCONFIDENT IN TURNING THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. HOWEVER...BY THEN\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON\r\nMOST LIKELY BE JUST A REMNANT LOW.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 34.5N  43.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 34.5N  41.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 34.5N  38.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 34.5N  36.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  34.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 32.5N  33.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  34.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 28.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-12-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT DEC 03 2005\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH...\r\n \r\nEPSILON MAINTAINS A RAGGED 20 N MI WIDE EYE... BUT THE CONVECTION\r\nSEEMS TO BE THINNING OUT A LITTLE... ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHE ONLY CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -50C ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR ALL THAT VIGOROUS...\r\nAND A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 22Z DID NOT REVEAL ANY WINDS\r\nSTRONGER THAN 50 KT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION THAT IT\r\nSAMPLED.  NEVERTHELESS... 00Z DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 55 TO 75\r\nKT... ALTHOUGH THE DATA T NUMBERS HAVE ALL FALLEN TO 4.0 OR LESS. \r\nEPSILON MIGHT OR MIGHT NOT STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT IN ANY CASE\r\nIT LIKELY WILL NOT BE ONE ON SUNDAY... SINCE IT IS HEADED FOR EVEN\r\nCOOLER WATERS WHILE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLIES ARE\r\nNOT FAR BEHIND.  THE STEADY WEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE\r\nMORE RAPID THAT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS FORECAST AT ABOUT 36 HOURS SINCE EPSILON WILL BE OVER\r\nSUB-22C WATERS AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME ENTANGLED IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nEXTENT OF A BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH EPSILON TOOK A SLIGHT JOG TO THE SOUTH EARLIER THIS\r\nEVENING... THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL TOWARD THE EAST OR\r\n095/11.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nUNTIL A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WEST OF EPSILON AS\r\nANTICIPATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  SINCE EPSILON IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME... IT SHOULD COME UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE LOWER- TO MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD PULL EPSILON SOUTHWESTWARD... AS\r\nFORECAST UNANIMOUSLY BY THE MODELS.  STRONG WIND SHEAR SHOULD STRIP\r\nEXTRATROPICAL EPSILON OF ANY REMAINING CONVECTION... LEAVING A\r\nREMNANT LOW TO SWEEP WESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 34.3N  41.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 34.2N  39.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 34.1N  37.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 33.8N  35.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 33.3N  33.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  33.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  40.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-12-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR PENETRATING THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION UNDERNEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY...AND THE EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION HAS THINNED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DATA T NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND EPSILON IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/11.  EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A\r\nWEAK WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF EPSILON IS ALSO MOVING EASTWARD...BUT MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS ZONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nPASS NEAR BUT NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...AFTER\r\nWHICH HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN...BLOCKING EPSILON'S\r\nPATH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN OUTLIER\r\nFOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE UKMET...WHICH MISSED YESTERDAY'S\r\nEASTWARD MOTION...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...WATER TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE GFDL SHOWS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THIS TIME.  EPSILON HAS CARVED OUT FOR\r\nITSELF A LITTLE POCKET OF MODERATE SHEAR...OF ABOUT 20-25 KT\r\nACCORDING TO THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS.  HIGHER VALUES\r\nEXIST IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE THOUGH...AND IF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THE CORE CONVECTION THEN\r\nEPSILON COULD QUICKLY FIND ITSELF OVERTAKEN BY THE SHEAR AND\r\nDEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT EPSILON COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEFORE\r\nTHAT...WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 34.3N  40.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 34.3N  38.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 34.2N  36.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  34.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 33.0N  33.0W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 30.0N  35.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 26.0N  39.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N  44.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-12-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN DEC 04 2005\r\n \r\nAFTER A SLIGHT WEAKENING OVERNIGHT...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT EPSILON HAS RESTRENGTHENED. THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC AND THE RING OF CONVECTION IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS\r\nBASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THERE ARE\r\nNO CLEAR REASONS...AND I AM NOT GOING TO MAKE ONE UP...TO EXPLAIN\r\nTHE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF EPSILON AND I AM JUST DESCRIBING THE\r\nFACTS. HOWEVER...I STILL HAVE TO MAKE AN INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE\r\nBEST BET AT THIS TIME IS TO PREDICT WEAKENING DUE TO COLD WATER\r\n...HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR.\r\n \r\nEPSILON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS...RUNNING AHEAD OF A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BUT SOON...ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE\r\nWHICH EVENTUALLY FORCE EPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\nTHERE IS FAIRLY GOOD GUIDANCE AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS MOTION.\r\nALTHOUGH EPSILON WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS ONCE IT MOVES TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE\r\nHIGHLY UNFAVORABLE AND EPSILON WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW. I\r\nHEARD THAT BEFORE ABOUT EPSILON...HAVEN'T YOU?\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 34.3N  39.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 34.3N  37.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  35.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  33.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  33.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 25.5N  39.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 21.5N  44.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-12-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY AND IS NOW ON A SLIGHT\r\nDOWNWARD TREND. THE HURRICANE HAS A LARGE SYMMETRIC EYE SURROUNDED\r\nBY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN IN STEADY\r\nSTATE...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE HIGHLY BASED ON THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THIS CONVECTIVE RING. THE BEST WIND ESTIMATE IS 70\r\nKNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT EPSILON NO LONGER WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSINCE THE FRONTAL ZONE JUST PASSED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND THERE\r\nWAS NO APPARENT INTERACTION. INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS SOON AS IT MAKES\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AND ENCOUNTERS VERY STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.\r\n \r\nEPSILON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY EASTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 10\r\nKNOTS. ONCE AGAIN IN THE LAST RUN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND A LOW TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORCE\r\nEPSILON SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD. BY THEN...THE REMNANT LOW \r\nSHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nMUCH LIKE ONE OF THOSE SHALLOW SYSTEMS OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE\r\nEAST PACIFIC.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 34.3N  38.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 34.4N  36.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 34.0N  34.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.0N  33.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N  34.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 25.0N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-12-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES STILL DEPICT A LARGE EYE...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS IN\r\nTHE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  HIGH RESOLUTION\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2125Z SHOWED SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE PEAK\r\nWINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  ALSO...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS\r\nAND AMSU ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDS\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SINCE EPSILON IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD LOWER LATITUDES...IT IS NOT LIKELY\r\nTO INTERACT MUCH MORE WITH THIS FRONT.  HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMING ENMESHED WITHIN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.  THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IS LIKELY TO\r\nWEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM\r\nDISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nEPSILON APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF EAST...AROUND 100/8. \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD...SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING\r\nBETWEEN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BLOCKING RIDGE AND THE\r\nABOVEMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW.  THE GFDL MODEL DOES NOT DRIVE THE\r\nSYSTEM AS MUCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS.  IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO QUITE AS\r\nFAR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY'S TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII\r\nWERE MADE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 34.2N  37.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  35.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.4N  34.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 32.5N  34.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.2N  34.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N  38.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-12-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAD BEEN RAGGED IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT EARLIER...HAS BECOME COLDER AND MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z HAD BEEN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT SINCE THEN HAVE BOUNCED BACK UP TO T4.5.  WITH NO\r\nREAL OBSERVATIONS EXCEPT FOR QUIKSCAT PASSES ONCE OR TWICE A\r\nDAY...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW WHETHER EPSILON'S INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nFOLLOWING THESE DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DVORAK VALUES. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...I'D LIKE TO SEE EPSILON MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nIMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FOR A WHILE LONGER BEFORE CHANGING THE\r\nINTENSITY AGAIN.  THE ADVISORY VALUE WILL REMAIN 65 KT...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nEPSILON CONTINUES TO MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST...105/9.    GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE FORECASTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CYCLONE'S\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH OF EPSILON AND A BLOCKING HIGH\r\nIN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH.  IN SPITE OF THE COMPLEXITY\r\nOF THE PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A SHARP TURN TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LARGELY UPDATES\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE GFDL HOLDS EPSILON AS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS...WHILE\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A FAIRLY RAPID DECAY. \r\nSSTS UNDER EPSILON ARE ALREADY ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO\r\nGET.  THE SHEAR IS ALSO NOT GOING TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL\r\nEPSILON BEGINS ITS TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  WITH THIS IN MIND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER\r\nTO THE GFDL GUIDANCE EARLY AND SHIPS GUIDANCE LATE.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON\r\nWAS STILL QUITE DISTINCT FROM THE FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM\r\nEPSILON NORTHWARD IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND WITH THE SOUTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION CONTINUING IT SEEMS THAT AN IMMINENT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS...ALAS...A LOST CAUSE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 33.8N  36.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  35.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 32.7N  34.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.3N  34.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 29.8N  36.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 26.5N  39.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  43.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N  47.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-12-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON DEC 05 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY. THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE AND IT IS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE LARGE EYE\r\nAGAIN. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS HAVE BEEN\r\nOSCILLATING AROUND 4.5 SUGGESTING WINDS OF 75 KNOTS BUT THE\r\nSUBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 65 KNOTS. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET IN BETWEEN AT 70 KNOTS. EPSILON HAS IGNORED THE\r\nCOLD SSTS AS WELL AS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND HAS\r\nMAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH. I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY\r\nMORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE. SHIPS MODEL\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND THE GFDL KEEPS IT AS A HURRICANE\r\nFOR NEARLY 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THEN A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. BOTH OF THE MODELS EITHER\r\nWEAKEN OR DISSIPATE EPSILON BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO THE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nEPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINSIST ON DEVELOPING A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A CUT OFF\r\nLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EPSILON. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EPSILON\r\nON A SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN DAY OR SO. BY THEN...EPSILON IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE OR A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 33.6N  35.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 33.3N  34.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  34.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  35.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 26.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  43.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N  47.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-12-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A\r\nHURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nLARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS.  EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE\r\nANNULAR HURRICANES OR \"TRUCK TIRE PATTERN\"  DESCRIBED IN THE\r\nSCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR\r\nHURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS\r\nINTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR\r\nHURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70\r\nKNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER\r\nPACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND\r\nENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200\r\nMB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING\r\nPOSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. \r\n\r\nEPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE\r\nTHE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO\r\nSOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE\r\nCYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE\r\nFOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON\r\nSHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 33.7N  34.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  33.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N  34.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  35.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  36.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 26.1N  39.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  41.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N  42.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-12-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005\r\n \r\nWE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...\r\nONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT\r\nEPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST\r\nTO SOUTHEAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE...\r\nMOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS\r\nCORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  AFTER MOVING\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON\r\nNOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT\r\nMIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD\r\nVERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST.  ESPECIALLY GIVEN\r\nTHE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE.  OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY\r\nINCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT\r\nLIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN\r\nSURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SOON EPSILON WILL NO\r\nLONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN\r\nWEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY.  BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS\r\nTO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR\r\nEPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION.  EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE\r\nREMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT\r\nPERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF\r\nMANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE.  SHIPS\r\nCONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT\r\nHAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS\r\nTHE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY\r\nKICKS IN.  SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT\r\nNUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS.  OTHERWISE\r\nTHE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 33.3N  33.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 32.3N  33.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 30.7N  34.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 29.3N  35.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.8N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-12-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005\r\n \r\nI HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT.\r\nEPSILON CONTINUES ON STEADY STATE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWHICH INTERMITTENTLY SURROUNDS THE LARGE EYE. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 65 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nEPSILON IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 4 KNOTS. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN 120 HOURS OR SOONER. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED\r\nBY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  ONLY THE GFDL KEEPS EPSILON AS A\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS\r\nCHANGED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 32.9N  33.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 32.1N  34.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 30.5N  35.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  36.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 28.0N  37.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  41.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-12-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE DEC 06 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON APPEARS TO STILL BE A HURRICANE... BUT JUST BARELY.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 08Z ESTIMATED WINDS AS STRONG AS 55 KT\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION... SO 65 KT WINDS WERE PROBABLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE\r\nCONVECTION AT THAT TIME.  THE CLOUD PATTERN DETERIORATED A LITTLE\r\nUNTIL 12Z WHEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55-65 KT.  JUST WHEN\r\nI WAS TEMPTED TO REDUCE THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT... EPSILON STARTED\r\nTO AGAIN WRAP SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS OF MODEST DEPTH TIGHTLY AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER... SO IT REMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  HOWEVER... THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN IS ELONGATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WITHIN AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD... SO THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE WEAK FOR\r\nTOO MUCH LONGER.  EPSILON CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH AT\r\nABOUT 8 KT... ALTHOUGH RECENTLY THERE IS THE HINT THAT THE EXPECTED\r\nTURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS BEGINNING.\r\n\r\nA BUILDING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF EPSILON IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO FORCE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS.  ON\r\nTHAT TRACK EPSILON WILL STILL BE BENEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAXIS FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING\r\nTHAT PERIOD AS THE OUTFLOW BECOMES MORE RESTRICTED.  ONCE EPSILON\r\nEMERGES WEST OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... STRONG\r\nNORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A MORE STEADY DECLINE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY... CALLING FOR EPSILON TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE TRACK OF THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW\r\nIS A BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE IT COULD BE\r\nDRAWN BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT... INSTEAD OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SCENARIO OF A CONTINUED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 31.9N  33.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N  34.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 28.9N  36.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 27.6N  37.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 26.4N  39.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  40.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-12-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON HAS SINCE LATE THIS MORNING BEEN MOVING DECIDEDLY TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR 210/8 WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND WEST.  THIS MOTION IS KEEPING EPSILON\r\nBENEATH THE AXIS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... SHELTERING THE\r\nCORE OF THE HURRICANE FROM WIND SHEAR.  EVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS GRADUALLY ELONGATING... THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE DOES\r\nNOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED TODAY.  THE RAGGED EYE IS STILL CLOSED\r\nAND CONVECTION WRAPS ESSENTIALLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER WITH\r\nTOPS AS COLD AS ABOUT -60C.  THE INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...\r\nAS DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT... BUT I PREFER TO\r\nSTAY ON THE HIGH END UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS OF A TRUE\r\nWEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nA GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THAT TIME.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nEPSILON IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ADVANCE\r\nEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SO EPSILON CANNOT STAY\r\nBENEATH IT FOREVER.  ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS IS MORE LIKE IT.  STRONG\r\nWIND SHEAR INCOMING FROM THE WEST OF THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD\r\nINEVITABLY WEAKEN EPSILON.  WHILE THE DECLINE OF EPSILON WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE GRADUAL AT BEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... ALL\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR-INDUCED WEAKENING WILL BEGIN\r\nIN EARNEST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL IN KEEPING EPSILON A TROPICAL STORM FOR LESS THAN 48\r\nHOURS.  ASSUMING THAT SCENARIO UNFOLDS... WHAT IS LEFT OF EPSILON\r\nIS NOW FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODELS TO BECOME INVOLVED IN SOME\r\nWAY WITH A FRONTAL ZONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  THE FRONT WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO\r\nDEVELOP NORTH OF EPSILON IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  I HESITATE TO MENTION\r\nTHAT MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... AFTER\r\nABSORBING EPSILON... TO SAG BACK TO THE SOUTH OF 30N ON DAY 5 TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS.  HOWEVER THAT SYSTEM DOES OR DOES\r\nNOT EVOLVE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON WILL\r\nALREADY HAVE MET ITS DEMISE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 31.1N  34.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 29.9N  35.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 28.4N  37.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 27.1N  38.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  38.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 26.0N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-12-07 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE DEC 06 2005\r\n \r\nTHE END IS IN SIGHT.  IT REALLY REALLY IS.  BUT IN THE MEANTIME...\r\nEPSILON CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.  HI-RES DATA FROM\r\nTHE 2037Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME VERY REASONABLE-LOOKING 60 KT\r\nVECTORS IN MUCH OF THE EYEWALL...AND ALLOWING FOR THE HORIZONTAL\r\nRESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE ARE STILL\r\nSOME 65 KT WINDS PRESENT IN THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO STILL 65 KT.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY...HOWEVER...SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE\r\nON AND DISRUPT THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE STRONG\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM THAT MOVED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THIS MORNING IS\r\nSWEEPING EASTWARD...AND VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES\r\nAHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO OVERTAKE EPSILON IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  THE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nSHEAR AWAY THE CONVECTION...LEAVING EPSILON AS A REMNANT LOW TO BE\r\nABSORBED WHEN THE SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES IN 48 TO 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 215/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO UNTIL THE CYCLONE\r\nSHEARS OFF...AT WHICH POINT THE MOTION IS LESS CERTAIN. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ARE LIKELY TO BE\r\nWEAKER...SO LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN JUST PRIOR TO ABSORPTION BY THE\r\nFRONT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 30.3N  35.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 29.1N  36.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 27.5N  37.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 26.5N  38.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 26.0N  38.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-12-07 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHE END IS IN SIGHT...YES...BUT NOT QUITE YET. I THOUGHT I WAS GOING\r\nTO FIND A WEAKENING SYSTEM AND INSTEAD I FOUND THAT EPSILON IS\r\nSTILL A HURRICANE. AS IT HAS DONE EVERY MORNING...THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS REDEVELOPED AROUND THE LARGE AND DISTINCT EYE....KICKING THE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS BACK UP AGAIN. ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY. THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN THE REGION OF\r\nLIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE WEAKENING PROCESS HAS TO BEGIN VERY SOON SINCE STRONG\r\nHIGH-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE SAME TROUGH ARE ALREADY HEADING TOWARD\r\nTHE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...I\r\nHAVE NO OPTION BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING AT A FAST PACE.\r\nNEVERTHERELESS...THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nEPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING\r\nTROUGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THIS\r\nSTEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL EPSILON BECOMES\r\nABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 29.8N  36.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.7N  37.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 27.7N  38.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  39.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 26.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-12-07 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED DEC 07 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON IS STILL A BORDERLINE HURRICANE WITH A VERY RAGGED EYE...\r\nAND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS MOSTLY UNDISTURBED BY THE STRONG WINDS ON\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD. HI-RES QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA AT 08Z CONTAINED A FEW 60 KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL.\r\nAT 12-KM SPACING THESE VALUES WERE PROBABLY SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATES\r\nOF THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED... ALTHOUGH THERE IS ALWAYS THE QUESTION\r\nOF WHETHER ENOUGH OF THE SIGNAL IS COMING FROM THE OCEAN SURFACE.\r\nTHE QUIKSCAT DATA DO SEEM REPRESENTATIVE WHEN CONSIDERING THAT 12Z\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT... AND AMSU ESTIMATES FROM\r\n09Z AVERAGED TO ABOUT 65 KT. EPSILON CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD RIGHT\r\nALONG THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...\r\nABOUT 235/13.\r\n \r\nTHE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS EPSILON PRODUCES\r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY BEND A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SLOW DOWN AS NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY BEGINS TO\r\nINCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.  THE SHEAR WILL\r\nPROBABLY NOT WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION OF EPSILON QUITE AS FAST AS THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET ARE SUGGESTING... BUT EVEN THE OFTEN SHEAR-RESISTANT\r\nGFDL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO LESS THAN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY 36\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ANTICIPATES EPSILON\r\nCOULD STAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-18\r\nHOURS... FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVERHEAD ADVANCES EASTWARD.  SINCE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTION...\r\nWHICH IS ONLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE... THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE GFDL IN ANTICIPATING A\r\nGRADUALLY SLOWING SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF EPSILON UNTIL IT IS\r\nSHEARED APART.  EPSILON IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE BY 48 HOURS INTO\r\nA REMNANT LOW... WHICH SHOULD THEREAFTER BE ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL\r\nZONE ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL\r\nBE PASSING TO ITS NORTH.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 29.1N  37.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 27.8N  38.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.4N  39.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 25.3N  40.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.6N  40.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-12-07 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n4 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND THE AIRFORCE CONTINUE TO\r\nCLASSIFY EPSILON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE..WITH T NUMBERS 3.0-4.0\r\nFROM SAB AND 3.5-4.0 FROM THE AIRFORCE RESPECTIVELY.  THIS\r\nCORRESPONDS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65KTS...UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE.  THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN ATLANTIC REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EPSILON...WITH THE STORM\r\nREMAINING IN A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC..NORTHEASTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  EPSILON CONTINUES TO BE STEERED IN A\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...235/13...ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERIES OF\r\nTHE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STORM.  \r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST RATIONALE FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nAPPRECIABLY.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING EPSILON TURNING MORE\r\nTO THE SOUTH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE STORM AND THE UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE TO EPSILONS WEST OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. WITH\r\nINCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR EXPECTED OVER THE STORM...WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY...WITH EPSILON FALLING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY\r\nTHURSDAY.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ORAVEC\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 28.1N  38.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 27.2N  39.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 25.4N  39.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.5N  40.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.6N  40.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":35,"Date":"2005-12-08 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED DEC 07 2005\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHWESTERLIES ARRIVED OVER EPSILON THIS AFTERNOON...STRIPPING\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...LEAVING A\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  USING A BLEND OF T AND CI\r\nNUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.\r\nWITH EVEN STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ON THE WAY...EPSILON WILL DECAY\r\nRAPIDLY...PERHAPS LOSING ALL CONVECTION BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY\r\nTHE COLD FRONT ADVANCING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/10.  EPSILON WILL BE INCREASINGLY STEERED\r\nBY A SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW AS IT DECAYS...AND THIS FLOW...CURRENTLY\r\nNORTHEASTERLY...WILL WEAKEN AND REVERSE WITH THE APPROACHING\r\nFRONTAL ZONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW\r\nBAM MODELS WITH THE GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 27.8N  39.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 26.9N  39.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 26.7N  39.8W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":36,"Date":"2005-12-08 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005\r\n \r\nEPSILON IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO FINALLY ACHIEVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSTATUS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED.  THE DEPTH AND\r\nEXTENT OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DECREASING THIS MORNING AND\r\nONLY REMAINS IN A VERY LIMITED AREA DOWNSHEAR OR SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE VARIOUS 06Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... AND THE FACT\r\nTHAT SINCE THEN THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALMOST DISAPPEARED.  THE\r\nCONVECTION IS DYING OFF SO FAST THAT IT WILL PROBABLY BE COMPLETELY\r\nGONE BY THE EFFECTIVE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD BUT\r\nHAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 215/7\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST IT MIGHT BE EVEN SLOWER THAN THAT.  EPSILON WILL SOON BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE LOW WILL PROBABLY\r\nNOT MOVE ALL THAT MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS SINCE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW IS COLLAPSING AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  IF THE REMANT LOW STILL EXISTS\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS... IT WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL\r\nZONE.  SEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO DEVELOP\r\nALONG THAT FRONT AFTER IT ABSORBS EPSILON... BUT THAT WOULD HAVE A\r\nGOOD CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVEN WITHOUT THE REMANTS OF EPSILON.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 27.1N  39.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 26.8N  39.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 26.7N  38.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Epsilon","Adv":37,"Date":"2005-12-08 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU DEC 08 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND EPSILON IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS. THE CYCLONE IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION OR THE\r\nREMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ABOUT 5 TO 10\r\nKNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION. I HOPE THIS\r\nIS THE END OF THE LONG LASTING 2005 HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 26.4N  40.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 26.0N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-12-30 17:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nNOON EST FRI DEC 30 2005\r\n \r\nAN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAD ITS ORIGINS IN AN OLD\r\nFRONTAL TROUGH...BEGAN DEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. \r\nWITH WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER...WEAK\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT...AND TROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...\r\nADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE 27TH TROPICAL STORM OF 2005.  THE\r\nINTIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RULE-\r\nCONSTRAINED T2.5 CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE T3.5 DATA T NUMBERS. \r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE...SO ZETA PROBABLY HAS A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...AS ZETA IS MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL\r\nLOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE\r\nWESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT...IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR...IT\r\nSHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND IS\r\nSOMEWHAT SLOWER TO THE WEST THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1700Z 25.0N  36.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 25.5N  37.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 26.0N  38.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  40.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-12-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...WHILE AFWA GAVE ZETA A SUBTROPICAL T2.5 CLASSIFICATION. \r\nBASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n45 KT.  THE WELL-DEFINED BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN THIS MORNING HAVE\r\nALREADY BECOME RAGGED...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY\r\nWESTERLIES BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  WHILE THERE COULD BE BRIEF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT\r\nDURING TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...STRONG WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR\r\nFROM THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD OVERTAKE ZETA WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING. ZETA IS STILL MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nITS SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE\r\nWESTERLIES MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ASSUMING ZETA\r\nWEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT SHOULD THEN TURN\r\nWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND THE 12Z GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS THAT ALICE OFFICIALLY BECAME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT 1200 UTC 30 DECEMBER 1954.  MY WORKING BEST TRACK FOR ZETA\r\nCURRENTLY SHOWS STORM STATUS BEGINNING AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...\r\nWHICH TENTATIVELY ALLOWS ZETA TO TIE ALICE FOR THE LATEST FORMING\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  HOWEVER...A CASE CAN BE MADE\r\nFOR CONSIDERING ZETA A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS 0600 UTC THIS\r\nMORNING.  WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FINAL ANALYSIS OF ZETA'S TRACK\r\nTO SEE EXACTLY WHERE ITS FORMATION FALLS RELATIVE TO ALICE'S.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD\r\nNAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE\r\nGREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 25.3N  37.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 25.6N  38.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 25.8N  39.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  40.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 26.0N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-12-31 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005\r\n \r\nZETA IS ROUGHLY HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM... WITH MOST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER... BUT STILL SOME OF IT NEAR THE\r\nFAIRLY TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED\r\nFROM SIX HOURS AGO AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 TO 45 KT.\r\nHI-RES WIND ESTIMATES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 2015Z WERE\r\nAS STRONG AS ABOUT 45 KT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... SO THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT.  THE QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nINDICATED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FARTHER FROM THE CENTER IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WHILE THE FEW 50-60 KT\r\nVECTORS WERE NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE... 30-40 KT VECTORS WERE\r\nWIDESPREAD IN THE OUTER BANDING EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION. THE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nZETA IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT... BUT A LITTLE\r\nMORE TO THE RIGHT AT ABOUT 320 DEGREES... PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE\r\nASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN DRAGGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER A\r\nLITTLE NORTHWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HAVE A\r\nGOOD HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION OR ITS RECENT\r\nMOTION... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE\r\nANTICIPATED STEERING FLOW.  THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL PROBABLY\r\nCONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FULLY OVERTAKE\r\nAND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEAR THE TROPICAL STORM.  ZETA MIGHT HOLD ON TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR ALMOST ANOTHER 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AS ZETA WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nINCREASINGLY BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW\r\nEAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nGRADUALLY BENDS TO THE WEST AS ZETA LIKELY DEGENERATES INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 25.9N  37.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 26.1N  38.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 26.2N  39.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 26.2N  40.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 26.3N  41.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-12-31 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005\r\n \r\nA BURST OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C...\r\nHAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN FACT... IT APPEARS THAT\r\nA SMALL CDO FEATURE MAY BE FORMING OVER THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER\r\nDEPICTED IN RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA. THE 50-KT INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. DATA T-NUMBERS USING A CDO\r\nFEATURE SUGGEST THE INTENSITY COULD EVEN BE 55-60 KT... BUT I WOULD\r\nPREFER TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS FOR AT\r\nLEAST ANOTHER 6 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING THE INTENSITY ANY FURTHER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/04 KT. MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING\r\nTHE PAST 9 HOURS INDICATES ZETA HAS SLOWED ITS NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AS ZETA COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH... AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW TO THE SOUTH WEAKENS. THE PRIMARY DILEMMA WITH THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS WHEN WILL ZETA WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...\r\nAND THEN BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE\r\nBERMUDA RIDGE. SINCE ZETA IS CURRENTLY STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nTHREE RUNS OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN FORECASTING... AN ADDITIONAL\r\n12-24 HOURS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE\r\nFORECAST. SINCE THE 00Z GFS MODEL REAMINS POORLY INITIALIZED... THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK LEANS CLOSER TO THE GFDL-NOGAPS-UKMET CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nLIKE THE FORECAST TRACK... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT\r\nPROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY SHOWS 45 KT OF\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM... WHICH IS LIKELY MUCH TOO STRONG\r\nGIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS. SINCE ZETA IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE LIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DELTA AND EPSILON... THE SHIPS SHEAR\r\nCALCULATIONS ARE ALSO PROBABLY TOO HIGH WITH ZETA. SINCE THE 300 MB\r\nFLOW IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE WESTERLY AT ONLY\r\n15-20 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS... THEN LESS SHEAR SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS\r\nQUITE POSSIBLE THAT ZETA COULD EVEN SURVIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 26.0N  37.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 26.3N  38.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 26.5N  39.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 26.6N  40.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 26.6N  41.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 27.0N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-12-31 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SAT DEC 31 2005\r\n \r\nZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT WESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nRESTRICTING THIS CONVECTION TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. VISIBLE AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT THE CENTER COULD BECOME\r\nEXPOSED AT ANY TIME. OVERALL THE SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK AS WELL\r\nORGANIZED AS IT DID AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHEN AN EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE WAS BRIEFLY PRESENT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nESTIMATES. THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CENTER BUT WAS\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO INDICATE THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE CONTRACTED.\r\nA SEQUENCE OF OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP WCBP...WHICH PASSED WITHIN 40\r\nNMI OF THE CENTER BUT NEVER REPORTED WINDS HIGHER THAN 34 KT...\r\nALSO SUGGEST THAT ZETA PRESENTLY HAS A FAIRLY SMALL WIND FIELD. \r\nZETA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY SOFT SPOT BETWEEN STRONG SHEAR TO THE\r\nNORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT STRONGER WESTERLIES LIE AHEAD\r\nAND THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO POUND AWAY AT ZETA.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/4...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN FACT THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. WEAK RIDGING IS PRESENT IN THE\r\nLOWER- TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA...AND THIS\r\nSTEERING SHOULD PREDOMINATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS ZETA BECOMES\r\nINCREASINGLY SHEARED. AFTER THAT...A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY ABOUT\r\n700 NMI TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF ZETA COULD TURN THE SYSTEM\r\nNORTHWARD...PARTICULARLY IF ZETA HOLDS TOGETHER LONGER THAN\r\nEXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW ZETA WILL\r\nRESPOND TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH. THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nSTRENGTHENS ZETA TO A HURRICANE IN THE FACE OF PERSISTENT WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...TURNS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS KEEP A VERY WEAK SYSTEM ON A\r\nWESTERLY OR WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS\r\nTHE LATTER SCENARIO...WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT AS THE\r\nREMNANTS OF ZETA BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 3 DAYS\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 25.9N  38.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  38.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N  40.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 26.0N  41.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 26.3N  42.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-12-31 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ZETA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING\r\nDURING THE DAY...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION ON THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION.  T NUMBERS WERE DOWN FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES AT 18Z...AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NUDGED\r\nDOWNWARD TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE THIS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL\r\nZETA DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nTHE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST.\r\n\r\nZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE\r\nTROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE\r\nCONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nUNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT\r\nPOINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD\r\nAHEAD OF THE FRONT. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 25.7N  38.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 25.7N  38.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.7N  39.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 25.7N  40.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.0N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-01-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005\r\n \r\nZETA APPEARED ON THE VERGE OF LOSING ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION A\r\nFEW HOURS AGO... BUT SINCE ABOUT 21Z THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON\r\nSOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE AGAIN.  HOWEVER... THAT CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIND\r\nSHEAR.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.5 AND THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 TO 55 KT.  THE AMSU AND QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASSES THIS AFTERNOON BOTH MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION... SO\r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS UPON WHICH TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWHICH REMAINS 45 KT.  ZETA IS STILL BARELY MOVING... BUT IT APPEARS\r\nTO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24\r\nHOURS... LONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE GFDL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER ZETA ARE NOT\r\nFORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GET MUCH STRONGER DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SO IT IS POSSIBLE ZETA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM LONGER THAN FORECAST... BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH IT STRUGGLED\r\nAGAINST THE SHEAR EARLIER TODAY IT COULD ALSO LOSE ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR GOOD AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK REMAINS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD... PRESUMING THAT SOME\r\nCONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... WHICH WOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO RETARD THE STEERING INFLUENCE\r\nOF THE EASTERLIES AROUND THE NARROW AND WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nMIGHT BE PULLED NORTHWARD BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT\r\nCOLD FRONT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 25.6N  38.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 25.5N  39.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 25.4N  40.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 25.4N  40.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 25.6N  41.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-01-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006\r\n \r\nTHE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER HAS BEEN ON THE\r\nWANE SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... SHEAR PATTERN\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT 45 KT... AND THAT IS\r\nTHE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS\r\nCONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT... ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST... WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER A LITTLE DIFFICULT.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/02 KT... BASED ON AN 18-HR MOTION. ZETA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE LOCATED EAST-WEST OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW...HOWEVER...IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM A GENERAL\r\nWESTERLY DIRECTION...SO THE OFFSETTING FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN A SLOW FORWARD SPEED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION... WHEREAS THE GFDN\r\nAND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS BY TAKING ZETA NORTHWARD\r\nALONG 44W-46W LONGITUDE AFTER 72 HOURS AS A VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nHURRICANE... WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nZETA REMAINS CAUGHT IN A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW REGION\r\nBETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO THE SOUTH AND THE POLAR JET TO THE\r\nNORTH. HOWEVER... SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE 25-30 KT OF\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR... WHICH IS ABOUT 20-25 KT LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHEAR ASSESSMENT... IS STILL IMPINGING ON ZETA. THAT MAGNITUDE OF\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... WITH A\r\nSLIGHT DECREASE IN SHEAR EXPECTED IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER... WITH ZETA MOVING INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD... ANY DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE\r\nOFFSET BY THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. THE RESULT IS THAT GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED... BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWHICH IS FORECASTING ZETA TO DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 25.7N  38.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  39.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 25.5N  40.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N  41.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 25.8N  42.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-01-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST SUN JAN 01 2006\r\n\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT ZETA...BUT THIS SHEAR IS\r\nCURRENTLY NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE STORM.  IN FACT...THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED A BIT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THE LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE\r\nVIGOROUS...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DENSE\r\nCONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...BASED ON A SHEAR PATTERN... REMAIN AT 45 KT.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS SITUATED IN A REGION OF DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH\r\nSTRONGER WINDS TO ITS NORTH AND SOUTH.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nDIAGNOSES 45 KT OF SHEAR OVER ZETA...THIS IS LIKELY AN OVERESTIMATE\r\nRESULTING FROM AVERAGING THE FLOW OVER TOO LARGE OF A HORIZONTAL\r\nAREA SURROUNDING THE STORM. NONETHELESS THE GFS 200 MB WIND\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE SHEAR ON ZETA\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS WEAKENING AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE THAN GIVEN BY SHIPS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL INTENSIFIES ZETA INTO A\r\nHURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.  SUCH A SCENARIO IS BEING REJECTED AT THIS\r\nTIME...SINCE THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A POSITIVE INTENSITY\r\nBIAS FOR SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS SLIPPED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...240/2.  AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSIONS... THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND LOW LEVEL\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE COMPETING FOR THE STEERING OF ZETA. \r\nAS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE MUCH\r\nPROGRESS IN ANY DIRECTION.  A WEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF ZETA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE SYSTEM SLOWLY\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MY\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 25.2N  38.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 24.9N  39.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.8N  40.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.9N  41.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-01-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...ZETA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY HAVE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...RELAXED\r\nSLIGHTLY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG\r\nWITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS...\r\nCONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOON AND\r\nTHIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS\r\nOUTPUT...SHOWS VERTICAL SHEAR OF 50 KT ON ZETA WITHIN 12 HOURS. \r\nTHIS IS LIKELY AN EXAGGERATION CAUSED BY AVERAGING OVER TOO LARGE\r\nOF A HORIZONTAL AREA AROUND THE STORM AND...POSSIBLY...TOO DEEP OF\r\nA VERTICAL LAYER.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALCULATES THE SHEAR FROM THE\r\n850 TO THE 200 MB LEVEL.  PHASE SPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE\r\nUNIVERSITY SHOW THAT ZETA HAS A RATHER SHALLOW WARM CORE SO IT MAY\r\nNOT HAVE AS DEEP A VERTICAL EXTENT AS MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES...AND\r\nIT MAY NOT BE AS RESPONSIVE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC...I.E. NEAR 200 MB...WINDS AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS\r\nRAPIDLY AS SHIPS.\r\n\r\nZETA HAS BEEN MEANDERING IN A PARTIAL COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP\r\nTODAY...PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROADER-SCALE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  ASSUMING THAT THE STORM WEAKENS AS\r\nFORECAST...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO RESPOND MORE TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK AND NARROW LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GOES\r\nALONG WITH THAT IDEA...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 25.0N  38.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 24.7N  39.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.5N  40.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 24.4N  41.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 24.4N  42.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-01-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2006\r\n \r\nTHIS IS LIKE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON ALL OVER AGAIN. MOST\r\nOF THE CONVENTIONAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED THAT ZETA SHOULD HAVE BEEN\r\nDISSIPATED BY NOW...WELL IT IS NOT INDEED...AND ZETA IS PRETTY MUCH\r\nALIVE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGES STILL INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION AND ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH AN ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AND AMSU DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT ZETA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS GIVEN IN THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  ACCORDING\r\nTO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES ZETA BY 48 HOURS...THE COOLER\r\nTHAN NORMAL 200 MB TEMPERATURE IS THE ONLY PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING\r\nTO THE MAINTENANCE OF THE CYCLONE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL\r\nINSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IT IS\r\nHARD TO GO AGAINST IT. HOWEVER...WITH STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT AND\r\nDRY AIR HEADING FOR ZETA...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST\r\nWEAKENING AGAIN AND AGAIN.\r\n\r\nZETA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 3 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN CIRCULATION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS\r\nAND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD BY THE TRADE WINDS UNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AS INDICATED BY QUIKSCAT. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 24.7N  38.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 24.6N  39.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 24.0N  40.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N  41.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 24.0N  43.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-01-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006\r\n \r\nZETA IS HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR. A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND THE\r\nOVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST\r\nQUIKSCAT AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45\r\nKT... WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A TAFB SHEAR INTENSITY ANALYSIS OF\r\nT3.0/45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ZETA MAY HAVE MADE A MORE \r\nWESTWARD TURN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SURGE AS NOTED IN QUIKSCAT AND\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE DATA. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS...\r\nSTEERING ZETA WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS\r\nAND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nUW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYS1S PRODUCTS INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY\r\nRELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS... WHILE ACCOMPANIED BY A\r\nDECREASE IN THE 200 MB TEMPERATURES. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION MAY REMAIN INTACT A LITTLE LONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIS INDICATING. HOWEVER... BY 24-36 HOURS... ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS... WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHEAR\r\nAWAY MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION... AND FINALLY BRING THE\r\n2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO A MERCIFUL ENDING. EVEN THE\r\nLATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 24.5N  39.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 24.4N  40.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 24.3N  41.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 24.2N  42.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 24.2N  44.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-01-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ZETA'S CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED\r\nJUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE\r\nHEAVIER SHOWERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW AN\r\nAREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS ADDITIONAL BLAST OF WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT ZETA WILL BE\r\nDISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED A LITTLE MORE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND CURRENT MOTION IS\r\nAROUND 240/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD\r\nAND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST...06Z...GFDL RUN IS BACK TO STRENGTHENING ZETA INTO A\r\nHURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 23.6N  40.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 23.3N  41.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 23.0N  42.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.0N  43.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-01-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND SEEMED IMMINENT EARLIER TODAY...AS THE\r\nLOW-CLOUD CENTER STARTED TO BECOME EXPOSED...A NEW BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SUBSEQUENTLY REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  ZETA HAS THUS\r\nFAR REFUSED TO WEAKEN IN...WHAT APPEARS TO BE...A STRONGLY SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT.  CLEARLY WE NEED AN INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE FOR SYSTEMS IN THE SUBTROPICS SUCH AS\r\nZETA...EPSILON...VINCE...ETC.  NOTWITHSTANDING... GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFORECASTS INDICATE EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE STORM\r\nWITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND IT IS HARD TO CONCEIVE THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE ABLE TO SURVIVE FOR VERY LONG IN SUCH A HOSTILE DYNAMICAL\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE I HAVE NOT BACKED OFF ON THE FORECAST OF\r\nWEAKENING.  OF COURSE...ZETA MAY HAVE OTHER IDEAS.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE FIXES INDICATE A MOTION NEAR 250/6.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS\r\nIT SHOULD BE STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AND\r\nMOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS.  THIS IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 23.5N  41.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 23.1N  42.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  43.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 23.0N  44.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N  45.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-01-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST MON JAN 02 2006\r\n \r\nZETA IS STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY. IT APPEARS THAT EVERY PULSE OF\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAS TRIED TO APPROACH ZETA BECOMES\r\nDIVERTED AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT\r\nBECOME SHEARED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS OVER\r\nTHE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD. BOTH SUBJECTIVE\r\nAND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TODAY. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nLATEST SSMI IMAGE SHOW A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING AN\r\nEYEWALL...BUT NOT QUITE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 50\r\nKNOTS AND I COULD GO EVEN HIGHER IF THE LATEST QUIKSCAT IS USED. \r\n\r\nA BRAVO FOR THE GFDL. IT HAS BEEN THE ONLY MODEL WHICH HAS KEPT ZETA\r\nALIVE DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IN FACT...THE LATEST RUN MAKES\r\nIT A 79-KNOT HURRICANE AS A SHARP UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THE\r\nHURRICANE. I WAS TEMPTED TO FOLLOW THE GFDL TREND BUT I HESITATED\r\nSINCE I AM NOT READY FOR SUCH AGGRESSIVE FORECAST YET GIVEN THE\r\nAPPROACHING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST BY EVERY OTHER MODEL.  ALL\r\nI AM DOING IN THE OFFICIAL FOREAST IS PROLONGING THE LIFE OF A\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING ZETA...BASED ON CONTINUITY.   \r\n\r\nZETA HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OR DRIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH\r\nZETA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 23.5N  41.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 23.4N  41.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 23.3N  42.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 23.2N  43.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N  45.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 25.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-01-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006\r\n \r\nAT THE CIRRUS LEVEL...ZETA IS NOW EXHIBITING OUTFLOW IN EVERY\r\nQUADRANT WHILE IT MAINTAINS CONVECTION WITH TOPS NEAR -70C. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTS THE DEVELOPING\r\nOUTFLOW.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5...OR 55\r\nKT...AND AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM\r\n2039Z LAST EVENING SUPPORTED WINDS THIS STRONG AS WELL. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING ZETA\r\nFROM THE WEST...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN\r\nFORECASTING THIS TROUGH TO SPLIT AND DROP SOUTH OF ZETA.  IF THIS\r\nOCCURS...THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER ZETA COULD LESSEN SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nOVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THE GFDL'S FORECAST OF A HURRICANE\r\nDOESN'T LOOK SO UNREASONABLE ANY MORE.  NO KNOWN HURRICANE HAS EVER\r\nFORMED DURING THE MONTH OF JANUARY.  I WON'T GO THAT FAR WITH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH I EXPECT THE SHEAR\r\nTO INCREASE AGAIN...AND EVEN THE GFDL WEAKENS ZETA SUBSTANTIALLY BY\r\nDAY 4.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/2.  ZETA REMAINS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID- TO\r\nLOWER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT ZETA MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE LOW\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE AGAIN THIS\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO SPLIT AND HENCE MAY LEAVE ZETA...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...BEHIND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 23.3N  41.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 23.3N  41.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 23.3N  42.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 23.5N  43.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N  44.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N  45.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 27.5N  45.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-01-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST TUE JAN 03 2006\r\n \r\nZETA'S CENTER APPEARS TO BE PARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5...\r\nCORRESPONDING TO A 55-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  AN SSMIS\r\nIMAGE AT 1116Z DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE RING...ALTHOUGH THIS FEATURE\r\nAPPEARED TO BE AT MID-LEVELS AND DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND SO FAR THE STRONG WINDS\r\nIN THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT HAVE NOT HAD MUCH OF A\r\nDISRUPTIVE INFLUENCE.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nNEARING ZETA...IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SPLIT AND THIS\r\nCOULD BRIEFLY CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nTODAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW NO WEAKENING UNTIL A LITTLE\r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...WHEN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLIES IN\r\nTHE WAKE OF THE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TAKING THEIR TOLL ON\r\nZETA.\r\n\r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT THAT OBVIOUS\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/4.  A\r\nMAINLY WESTWARD TRACK...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...IS\r\nLIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER A LARGE LOW MOVING FROM\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO TURN ZETA TO THE RIGHT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 23.0N  42.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 23.0N  42.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N  43.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.4N  44.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.5N  45.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N  46.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 30.0N  46.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-01-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006\r\n\r\nBASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE\r\nGENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...ZETA HAS NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN FACT THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED-LOOKING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY\r\nOF 45 KT.  THERE IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PRACTICALLY SUPERIMPOSED\r\nON THE STORM AT THIS TIME.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD...AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN ITS WAKE IS LIKELY TO\r\nBEGIN TO DISRUPT THE SYSTEM IN 12-24 HOURS.  SO...ALTHOUGH YOU'VE\r\nHEARD THIS FROM US BEFORE...WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE\r\nTOMORROW.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD...270/4.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ZETA\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEN...A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A LARGE\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  IF ZETA WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE...IT WOULD PROBABLY FOLLOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 23.2N  42.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 23.2N  43.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.4N  44.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.2N  45.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 25.3N  46.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N  47.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 29.5N  48.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-01-04 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2006\r\n \r\nZETA IS A TENACIOUS CYCLONE AND BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THE\r\nWINDS ARE AT LEAST 55 KNOTS. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE AND\r\nCONSISTS OF AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A\r\nCYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS ESTABLISHED AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR. THE\r\nGFDL INSISTS ON MAKING ZETA A HURRICANE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHARP\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES. THIS COULD BE A CASE OF TROUGH INTERACTION\r\nAIDING INTENSIFICATION. I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE GFDL\r\nSOLUTION TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT. IT HAS ALREADY BEAT ME A FEW\r\nTIMES. HOWEVER...FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY ONLY...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST KEEPS ZETA WITH 55 OR 50 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nWITH A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nZETA IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST OF 250 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS STEERED BY A\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE. A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY\r\nOR SO AND THEN A NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN AS A STRONGER RIDGE\r\nDEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF ZETA. AS THE TROUGH GOES BY...ZETA COULD TURN\r\nBACK TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nHAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 22.7N  42.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 22.7N  43.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 22.7N  44.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  46.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 25.5N  46.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 28.5N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 30.5N  51.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-01-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006\r\n \r\nZETA CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTIVE TOPS OF -55C TO -60C NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER....WITH RAGGED OUTER BANDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  SOME ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW WAS APPARENT IN CIRRUS CLOUD\r\nMOTIONS EARLIER.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 KT AT\r\nTAFB TO 45 KT AT AFWA AND ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO. \r\nTHUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n\r\nZETA HAS MOVED MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND FASTER OVER THE PAST 6-12\r\nHR...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 21N38W.  HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS THUS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 220/6.  ZETA IS SOUTH OF A MEAN DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHILE A MEAN DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT ARE\r\nCURRENTLY BETWEEN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND BERMUDA...WHILE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SECOND STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE\r\nINTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW TROUGH WILL CAUSE\r\nTHE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD NORTH OF ZETA...\r\nWITH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDING IN BETWEEN THE TROUGHS.  THIS EVOLUTION\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72\r\nHR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS. \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS...WITH THE EXCEPTION\r\nOF THE UKMET WHICH CALLS FOR RECURVATURE ALONG 48W IN 48-72 HR. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nOTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  \r\n\r\nZETA IS WELL EMBEDDED IN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL AND POLAR JET STREAMS...WHICH OVERALL IS NOT A VERY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST A SERIES OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE FEATURES WILL PASS OVER ZETA DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HR...MOST NOTABLY THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD REACH THE STORM IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE SOME SURGES AND LULLS IN VERTICAL SHEAR...\r\nAND BASED ON THIS THE INTENSITY FORCAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING\r\nFOR 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF ZETA\r\nSHOULD CAUSE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nSTORM...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ZETA WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HR\r\nAND DISSIPATING BY 120 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL STILL\r\nWANTS TO MAKE ZETA A HURRICANE...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE\r\nTHE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD BRIEFLY PROVIDE A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 22.1N  43.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 21.9N  43.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 22.4N  45.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 23.9N  46.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 25.5N  46.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 28.0N  49.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 30.0N  53.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-01-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST WED JAN 04 2006\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION INDICATES THAT ZETA IS NOT AS STRONG AS\r\nIT WAS YESTERDAY BUT STILL HAS A SMALL BUT VIGOROUS CIRCULATION.\r\nTHERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE\r\nNO SIGNS OF STRONG SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. BASED\r\nON THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. PULSES OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO AFFECT ZETA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE\r\nWINDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.      \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6. ZETA IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY A LOW TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH. AS AN APPROACHING\r\nSTRONG WINTER LOW PASSES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THIS WINTER\r\nLOW WILL PASS BY VERY FAST AND WILL NOT INDUCE RECURVATURE. ZETA AS\r\nA WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEN MOVE BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. AS YOU CAN SEE...I RAN OUT\r\nTHINGS TO SAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 21.9N  44.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N  44.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N  46.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 24.5N  47.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 28.0N  51.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 30.0N  54.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-01-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006\r\n \r\nZETA CONSISTS OF A VERY VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THE\r\nCONVECTION APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY VANISHING. THERE ARE A FEW\r\nCLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT ZETA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT SEEMS THAT FINALLY SHEAR AND\r\nDRY AIR ARE DISRUPTING THE CYCLONE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING TREND\r\nSHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A REMNANT\r\nLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT ZETA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN\r\nAPPROACHING COLD FRONT. ZETA SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 21.7N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.7N  46.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 23.5N  47.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 25.0N  48.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N  50.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 28.5N  53.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  55.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-01-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006\r\n\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS OVER ZETA AT 2127 UTC SHOWED A NUMBER OF 35 KT\r\nVECTORS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE ENSUING HOURS...I AM\r\nSETTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 35 KT TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR  CONTINUE TO GET THE BEST OF ZETA...AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRLY WITH ONLY A\r\nFEW SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ZETA IS LIKELY TO\r\nWEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW...AND TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW SOON THEREAFTER.  THIS REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY.\r\n\r\nAS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ZETA OR ITS REMNANT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED\r\nBY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nCELL AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 21.7N  46.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 22.4N  47.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.9N  48.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 25.2N  49.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.2N  51.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N  55.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Zeta","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-01-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 50 KT OF\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER ZETA...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nWHILE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HR IT IS LOCATED\r\nMORE THAN 80 N MI FROM THE EXPOSED CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...ZETA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  ZETA IS SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH A MEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERING\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH \r\nALONG 57W-58W NORTH OF 23N MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND A SECOND\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THESE TROUGHS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS WILL\r\nCAUSE THE ATLANTIC RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND ALLOW ZETA TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...WITH 40-60 KT NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS LIKELY TO\r\nIMPACT ZETA AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE\r\nCYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ZETA TO\r\nBECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 96\r\nHR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD CAUSE\r\nA CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP AS IT APPROACHES ZETA...BUT ANY SUCH FLARE-UP\r\nOR RESULTING INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 22.0N  47.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N  48.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 24.3N  49.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 25.4N  50.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 26.4N  52.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 28.5N  56.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-01-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST THU JAN 05 2006\r\n \r\nA 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED INDICATED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED\r\nWIND VECTORS NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE TO THE EAST OF THE FULLY\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE 12Z DVORAK SATELLITE SHEAR PATTERN\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM THE TAFB WAS 35 KT... AND\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EVEN CLOSER TO THE CENTER SINCE THAT\r\nANALYSIS WAS MADE. IN ADDITION... SHIP ZCIH7 LOCATED ABOUT 135 NMI\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 30 KT... WHICH MATCHED\r\nUP WELL WITH NEARBY QUIKSCAT WINDS. SO...REGRETFULLY...THE\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 35 KT AND ZETA IS A TROPICAL STORM\r\nONCE AGAIN. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 05/0915Z UW-CIMSS\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1006 MB AND 38 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. ZETA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS\r\nSATELLITE WIND ANALYSES INDICATE A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH \r\nLOCATED ALONG 56W LONGITUDE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD. THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT ZETA POLEWARD AND/OR SHEAR THE SYSTEM\r\nAPART... LEAVING BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24-36\r\nHOURS. BY 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW MAY EVEN BECOME ABSORBED INTO\r\nA FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL'S 850-200 MB SHEAR OF 68 KT IS NOT THE ACTUAL SHEAR \r\nAFFECTING ZETA. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE 850-300 MB WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR TO ONLY BE AROUND 30-35 KT. AS A RESULT... ZETA MIGHT BE ABLE\r\nTO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO\r\nBEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS VERY HOSTILE MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS\r\nBEHIND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 22.4N  47.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 23.3N  48.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N  49.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 25.3N  51.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 26.3N  53.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  56.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-01-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006\r\n \r\nZETA HAS MAINTAINED A NICE TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION... AND\r\nANOTHER BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE\r\nTAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN 30 KT AND 35 KT OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS... AND ODT VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T3.0/45 KT. LOW-CLOUD\r\nDRIFT WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND 40 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT\r\n32-KT SURFACE WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A\r\n05/1613Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1007 MB AND 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 310/07 KT.  ZETA REMAINS ON TRACK\r\nAND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nIS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY \r\nINDICATES A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG\r\n53W LONGITUDE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AT 30 KT. ZETA IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH AND GETS LIFTED NORTHWARD\r\nBY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVECTION\r\n\"SHOULD\" GET SHEARED AWAY BY 24 HOURS OR SO... LEAVING BEHIND A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY A TRAILING\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nJUST ABOUT THE TIME THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO WANE... NEW CONVECTION\r\nREFIRES JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BECOME RATHER\r\nACTIVE TO THE NORTHWEST OF ZETA BETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A\r\nPRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 50W LONGITUDE... INDICATING THAT\r\nTHERE IS STILL PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE\r\nFOR IT TO TAP INTO. THEREFORE... ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nFOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO... AFTER WHICH STRONG SHEAR BEHIND THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH \"SHOULD\" DECAPITATE THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 23.0N  48.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 23.8N  49.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 24.7N  50.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 25.7N  52.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 27.0N  55.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  56.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED OR ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-01-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM EST THU JAN 05 2006\r\n\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 2100 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED MOSTLY\r\n30-KT SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...WITH A SINGLE 35-KT VECTOR\r\nTHAT MAY BE IN RAIN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...30\r\nKT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  ZETA STILL\r\nHAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED AND RAGGED...MAKING FOR A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING\r\nSYSTEM.  I WILL MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...BUT ONE COULD ALSO MAKE A CASE FOR DOWNGRADING THE\r\nSYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND...ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS AS IF ZETA\r\nWILL NEVER DIE...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nA LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A FRONTAL TROUGH TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING CURRENT.  INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER 305/6...BUT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nLATEST TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFDL ACCELERATES ZETA\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER\r\nHALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IT SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE THAN\r\nWE ARE EXPECTING BY THAT TIME.  IT IS MORE REASONABLE TO ASSUME\r\nTHAT ZETA WILL BE A WEAKENED SYSTEM...PROBABLY A REMNANT LOW...THAT\r\nWILL BE STEERED BY SHALLOW-LAYER WINDS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 23.2N  48.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 23.9N  49.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 24.6N  51.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 25.4N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 27.0N  56.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 31.5N  57.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Zeta","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-01-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT ZETA IS BECOMING LESS\r\nORGANIZED.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME RAGGED AND LESS\r\nCONCENTRATED OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nIS LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS 24 HR AGO.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A 35 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A 38 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 0446 UTC. \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6.  ZETA IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nZETA SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR AS\r\nTHE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD A LITTLE...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH.  ALL\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THOSE MODELS.  THE TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT...AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING\r\nOVER ZETA WITH A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE TROUGH.  THE\r\nBUILDING RIDGE SHOULD BRING STRONG...AND POSSIBLY SUBSIDENT...\r\nNORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER ZETA STARTING IN THE NEXT 6-12 HR. \r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER\r\nTODAY...AND BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48-60 HR. \r\nGIVEN THAT ZETA HAS BEEN QUITE TENACIOUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR THE REMNANTS TO LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN THAT...WITH\r\nDISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 23.3N  49.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 23.8N  50.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 24.6N  52.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 26.0N  55.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 28.5N  57.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 32.5N  57.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Zeta","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-01-06 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2006\r\n \r\nZETA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED LOOKING THIS\r\nMORNING... WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SHARP DOWN TURN IN THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES... WHICH ARE NOW ONLY 25-30 KT. REPORTS FROM\r\nNEARBY SHIPS AT 12Z HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT... SO THERE MAY BE SOME\r\n30-KT WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST IN WHAT LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  ZETA HAS MADE A SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nJOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY \r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME SHORTLY. AFTER 24-46 HOURS... ZETA IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD\r\nAHEAD OF... OR POSSIBLY MERGE WITH... A SHARP COLD FRONT CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK TO ADJUST FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION... BUT THE\r\nTRACK IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nINDICATE A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nPASSING OVER ZETA MAY HAVE DELIVERED THE KNOCKOUT PUNCH WE HAVE\r\nBEEN ANXIOUSLY WAITING FOR. THE MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH IS\r\nALSO VERY DRY WITH ONLY 18-25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR\r\nAHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO...FINALLY...BRING THE 2005\r\nATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON TO AN END...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THIS\r\nAFTERNOON OR EVENING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 23.0N  49.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 23.4N  51.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 24.5N  54.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  56.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  58.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  56.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Zeta","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-01-06 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2006\r\n \r\nSHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND IS NOW LIMITED TO JUST\r\nA FEW SKINNY BANDS OF SHALLOW CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. AS SUCH... ZETA NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE... WHICH MEANS THAT BOTH IT AND THE 2005 ATLANTIC HURRICANE\r\nSEASON HAVE ENDED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/6.  ZETA HAS MADE A JOG BACK TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST... BUT THE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS HAS\r\nBEEN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AT ABOUT 06 KT. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF\r\nZETA IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... AND TURN NORTHWARD AFTERWARDS\r\nAS THE REMNANT LOW COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING\r\nSOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. BY 72 HOURS... THE SKELETAL\r\nREMAINS OF ZETA ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nI SUPPOSE IT IS ONLY FITTING THAT THE RECORD-BREAKING 2005 ATLANTIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON ENDS WITH A RECORD BREAKING STORM. TODAY... ZETA\r\nSURPASSED 1954 ALICE #2 AS THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nFORM IN DECEMBER AND CROSS OVER INTO THE NEXT YEAR. ZETA WAS ALSO\r\nTHE LONGEST-LIVED JANUARY TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...ZETA \r\nRESULTED IN THE 2005 SEASON HAVING THE LARGEST ACCUMULATED CYCLONE\r\nENERGY...OR ACE... SURPASSING THE 1950 SEASON. SO... UNTIL THE 2006\r\nSEASON BEGINS... UNLESS ZETA SOMEHOW MAKES AN UNLIKELY MIRACLE\r\nCOMEBACK... THIS IS THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER SIGNING OFF FOR\r\n2005... FINALLY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 23.4N  50.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N  52.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 25.4N  54.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 27.8N  56.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 30.2N  57.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-05-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA AND EL\r\nSALVADOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT...25 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND AFWA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS FORMED OVER\r\nTHE FAR NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  IN ADDITION TO SATELLITE\r\nDATA... SHIP PFSK LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF\r\n1006.4 MB... ALONG WITH 14 FT SEAS THAT CORRESPOND TO 25-30 KT\r\nWINDS.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/4.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE\r\nGFDL MODEL...INDICATE AN ATYPICAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  SINCE 1966... ONLY FOUR\r\nSYSTEMS HAVE MADE LANDALL IN GUATEMALA OR EL SALVADOR IN ANY\r\nMONTH... WITH ONLY ONE LANDFALLING DEPRESSION IN THE MONTH OF MAY. \r\nHOWEVER... NO TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MADE LANDFALL THIS EARLY IN MAY. \r\nWHILE NOT CLIMATOLOGICAL... ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO AND TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MOVE THE SYSTEM TOWARD\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD OCCUR\r\nALONG THE GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR COASTS IN 2-3 DAYS.  IF THE\r\nCYCLONE SURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA... IT COULD\r\nEMERGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 4.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL\r\nAND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION.  AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE\r\nDEPRESSION NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH IS PRODUCING\r\nFAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY\r\nSTRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE TO 55 KT IN 48 HOURS... BUT THIS IS LARGELY\r\nDUE TO THE UNUSUAL EASTWARD MOTION WHICH GENERALLY DOES NOT FAVOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO 115\r\nKT IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL... AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60 HOURS\r\nBEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z  9.9N  95.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 10.2N  94.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 10.7N  93.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N  92.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.7N  91.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N  87.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N  82.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N  74.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-05-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE MAY 17 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW INCREASED CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nAND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 35 KT...35 KT...AND 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB... AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THUS THE CYCLONE IS\r\nBEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSHOULD NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST A LA THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. \r\nTHIS IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST...BUT LESS THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE GFDL.  SHOULD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVE ITS\r\nTREK OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...IT WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nAN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME.  SHIPS...USING THE\r\nGFS MODEL FORECAST WINDS...SHOWS 30-40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR BY DAYS\r\n4-5.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 055/04.  THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM IS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS PREDICTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nTO BE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ADRIAN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS LIKELY TO CARRY\r\nTHE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LATEST GFDL TRACK.\r\n\r\nA BIG CONCERN WITH ADRIAN IS ITS POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE EXTREMELY\r\nHEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE STORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THAT REGION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 10.3N  94.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 10.7N  93.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 11.4N  92.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.3N  91.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 13.5N  89.5W    60 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N  85.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 20.5N  80.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  74.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-05-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS\r\nMOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN\r\nCOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS... \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ADRIAN SHOULD THEN\r\nCONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. IN FACT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING A\r\nWEAKENED ADRIAN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CENTRAL CUBA AND\r\nTHE BAHAMAS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WINDS SHOULD BE NEARING THE COASTS OF\r\nGUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.\r\n \r\nADRIAN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PARTS OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE\r\nSTORM IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nTHAT REGION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 10.8N  94.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 11.2N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 12.0N  92.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 13.0N  91.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 14.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N  85.0W    30 KT...BACK OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N  81.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N  74.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-05-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005\r\n \r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED THIS MORNING AS\r\nDRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN DRAWN INTO THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...AN 18/0920Z TRMM OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS DISPLACED ABOUT 45-60 NMI\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS\r\nALSO CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS...\r\nSO THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK...AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES SEEN\r\nIN 37GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE DATA AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND 35\r\nKT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/07. IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT A NEW CENTER COULD FORM FARTHER EAST UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SURROUNDING THAT\r\nFEATURE HAS DECREASED...SO I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES TO THE OVERALL TRACK MOTION AT THIS TIME. THE GLOBAL AND\r\nGFDL MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A PRONOUNCED MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO...WHERE A RIDGE IS USUALLY\r\nLOCATED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE ADRIAN\r\nACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ON DAY 2 AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3. WHETHER OR NOT ADRIAN MAKES IT ACROSS\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA INTACT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEPEND IN PART ON\r\nJUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THREE FORECASTS AND IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES REMAIN QUITE\r\nPRONOUNCED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXCELLENT. AT\r\nLEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL\r\nOF THE MODELS ARE FORERCASTING A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN...\r\nESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ADRIAN UP\r\nTO ABOUT 55 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN LEVELS IT OFF UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\nTHE GFDL IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT IT STILL MAKES\r\nADRIAN A 95-KT HURRICANE IN 24-36 HOURS. THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF DRY\r\nAIR TO THE WEST REQUIRES THAT THE GFDL INTENSITY FORCAST BE\r\nTEMPERED SOMEWHAT AT THIS TIME...BUT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL IS STILL A VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WINDS COULD BE NEARING THE COASTS OF\r\nGUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS...SO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nADRIAN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD\r\nCAUSE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 11.1N  93.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 11.6N  92.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 12.6N  91.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 13.6N  89.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N  84.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  79.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 24.0N  73.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-05-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND A SOMEWHAT\r\nDISORGANIZED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ADRIAN RETAINS\r\nPROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE 3.0...3.0...\r\nAND 3.5...FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nTO 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUALLY IMPROVING BANDING PATTERN.\r\n\r\nADRIAN HAS BEEN WOBBLING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL AGREE THAT A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME SHORTLY.  PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nRECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN ATYPICAL MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nMEXICO WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...GRADUALLY ACCELERATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 5 AS\r\nIT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE\r\nGREATER ANTILLES.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...INCLUDING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES THAT EXCEED 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM REMAINS WEAK.  INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING BEFORE ADRIAN EMERGES OVER\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN SEA... WHERE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT FAVOR\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD BE\r\nNEARING THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR EL SALVADOR.\r\n \r\nADRIAN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD\r\nCAUSE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 10.9N  92.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 11.6N  91.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 12.7N  90.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 14.2N  88.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.8N  87.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N  82.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  77.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  70.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-05-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED MAY 18 2005\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DIMINISHED EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THIS WAS\r\nPROBABLY A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.  RECENT IMAGES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING NEAR/OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SLIGHTLY\r\nINCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM.  ADRIAN COULD STILL\r\nINTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST...IF THE\r\nSHEAR DOES NOT BECOME TOO STRONG.  ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. \r\nTHEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nDUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL NOT\r\nFAVOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  IF IT SURVIVES...THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY\r\nBAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...WHICH MAKES THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION...065/07...RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES\r\nTO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ADRIAN SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE\r\nFIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY\r\nRAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY\r\nDEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 11.2N  92.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 11.9N  91.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 13.1N  89.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.3N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.8N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N  81.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  68.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-05-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nLESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. MICROWAVE PASSES AT 0031Z\r\nAND 0440Z ARE ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF A LITTLE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA\r\nARE 45...45...AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVLY.  I WILL HOLD THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE WIND FIELD OF ADRIAN IS VERY SMALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/6.  THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN WILL BE REINFORCED BY\r\nA SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES...AND THIS\r\nSHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIFFERS MAINLY WITH THE\r\nSPEED OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GFS HOLDS ADRIAN NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE ACCELERATING IT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE CONSIDERABLY FASTER\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nJUST SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR ADRIAN HAVE BEEN EXCESSIVE.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET THUS FAR...\r\nSHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. WITH THE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE...I DO NOT EXPECT A GREAT\r\nDEAL OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH ADRIAN COULD CERTAINLY\r\nBE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LANDFALL.  ADRIAN'S LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WILL BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED WHEN IT CROSSES OVER CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA...AND WILL MOST LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF HONDURAS.  ONLY IF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE\r\nNAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  WHATEVER EMERGES INTO THE\r\nCARRIBEAN WILL COME UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SHOULD LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY\r\nBAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS HEAVY\r\nRAIN...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY\r\nDEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 11.6N  91.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 12.2N  90.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 13.2N  89.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N  85.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N  80.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N  74.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  66.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-05-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE OF ADRIAN IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS WRAPPING MORE COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER... AND\r\nDVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nADDITIONALLY...A 1238Z SSMI PASS REVEALS INNER CORE BANDING. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KNOTS. SOME FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AS\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nADRIAN IS NOW MOVING DIRECTLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...045/8.  MAINLY\r\nDUE TO THE RECENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY\r\nTHE SAME.  A MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO STEADILY ACCELERATE ADRIAN TO THE NORTHEAST.  IF IT\r\nREMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nAGAIN IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE\r\nFLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 12.5N  90.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 13.4N  89.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 14.6N  88.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N  86.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.6N  84.4W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  79.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 29.0N  64.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-05-19 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT THU MAY 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE ADRIAN TO A HURRICANE AND TO\r\nUPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING.  NO\r\nCHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ARE INDICATED.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND\r\nPOTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1800Z 12.6N  90.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 13.4N  89.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 14.6N  88.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N  86.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.6N  84.4W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  79.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 25.0N  72.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 29.0N  64.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-05-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005\r\n \r\nADRIAN INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE EARLIER TODAY...AS INDICATED BY\r\nREPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH\r\nPENETRATED THE CENTER AT 1655Z AND 1830Z.  ESTIMATES OF THE MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE...EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...WERE\r\n982 MB AND 984 MB.  AIRBORNE RADAR DEPICTED A CIRCULAR EYE WITH 10\r\nNM DIAMETER... AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED WAS 92 KT\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THESE DATA CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 75 KT...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN THIS\r\nADVISORY.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE SYSTEM...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED.  HOWEVER...ADRIAN IS STILL\r\nLIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AS A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL SPEND MANY HOURS OVER THE RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  IF A WEAKENED ADRIAN EMERGES INTO THE\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA...INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWILL BE PROHIBITIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  ONLY IF THE SYSTEM\r\nMAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND\r\nWOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ADRIAN TO BE\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND\r\nPOTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 12.9N  90.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 13.8N  89.3W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.2N  87.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.8N  85.6W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.4N  83.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  77.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  70.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-05-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS LESS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES THAN\r\nIT DID EARLIER TODAY...WITH A LACK OF BANDING FEATURES. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS FAIRLY INTENSE...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT IT STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE.  CENTER FIXES...FROM\r\nBOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PLATFORMS...ARE SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN BUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ADRIAN IS ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE\r\nOFFSHORE.  LANDFALL IS IMMINENT...AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN\r\nRATHER RAPIDLY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS IS\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST.  ADRIAN IS EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nCURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nEL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT\r\nMAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER SUCH ROUGH\r\nTOPOGRAPHY.  NONETHELESS THE NHC FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN INTO THE\r\nCARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC.  SHOULD ADRIAN OR\r\nITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RE-INTENSIFICATION. \r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC. \r\n\r\nNOTE...ONLY IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS\r\nTHROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN\r\nTHE ATLANTIC BASIN.  \r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND\r\nPOTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 13.4N  89.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.4N  88.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N  86.2W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.7N  84.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 19.2N  81.8W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N  76.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N  69.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-05-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ADRIAN WAS DECAYING RAPIDLY IN THE\r\nHOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY\r\nABOUT THE PRECISE TIME AND INTENSITY OF LANDFALL...THE OPERATIONAL\r\nESTIMATES BEING 65 KT AND 6Z...RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...A POST\r\nSTORM ANALYSIS MAY WELL CONCLUDE THAT ADRIAN CAME ASHORE AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 6Z FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nWERE ONLY 55 KT...WHILE AFWA WAS STILL AT 65 KT.\r\n \r\nWITH THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND ARE BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM EL SALVADOR ARE NOT ENTIRELY CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MY INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE BUT THESE MAY BE AFFECTED BY\r\nLOCAL TOPOGRAPHY.  THE SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER ADRIAN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL\r\nSALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY\r\nWELL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.  SHOULD\r\nADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TORRENTIAL\r\nRAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY\r\nDEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 13.8N  88.9W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 15.8N  85.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N  83.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adrian","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-05-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI MAY 20 2005\r\n \r\nADRIAN HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER HONDURAS THIS MORNING. VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATIONS OF A CIRCULATION...AND DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS MUCH MORE LIMITED THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...ADRIAN STILL\r\nPOSES THE THREAT FOR MORE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY\r\nPRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE DISSIPATING\r\nDEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...AND INTO THE\r\nEXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC.  A REMNANT LOW CENTER IS FORECAST AT 12\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 15.0N  87.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-06-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL AREA OF\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND MODEST CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z INCLUDED A 2.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND 1.5 FROM AFWA.  QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION ABOUT AN ILL-DEFINED CENTER...WHICH WE BELIEVE HAS\r\nTIGHTENED UP SOME SINCE THEN.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS STILL A BIT\r\nON THE THIN SIDE...THERE IS ENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A WEAK RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nIN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NEAR 130 WEST.  BY THEN...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING PAST THE 26C ISOTHERM AND RESPONDING TO THE\r\nLOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND\r\nGFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS THE SHALLOW BAM TRENDS\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT RATE IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...WITH COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DOING SO BY 72\r\nHOURS.  NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE GFDL GUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM\r\nUP TO 50 KT.  HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nENVELOPE AND GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 13.7N 102.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.0N 103.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 105.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.2N 107.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-06-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS AS NOTED BY IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES AND AN INCREASE\r\nIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT\r\nIS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nAFWA AND A 21/2130Z CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1000.1 MB. ALSO\r\n...CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD AT 40 KT IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ASSUMING THAT THIS MOTION IS EQUAL TO THE 700\r\nMB WIND FLOW EQUATES TO ABOUT A 36 KT SURFACE WIND SPEED. OUTFLOW\r\nHAS ALSO IMPROVED...BUT REMAINS ELONGATED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE POSITIONS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nMUCH COOLER WATER AND WEAKEN...AND BE TURNED MORE WESTWARD BY\r\nMODERATE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...WHICH NOW BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 59 KT IN 48H.\r\nTHE PREVIOUS SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM\r\nMODEL...WHEREAS THE 00Z SHIPS OUTPUT WAS BASED ON THE SLOWER\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN AROUND 15 KT FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...SO A NEAR AVERAGE\r\nRATE OF STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE UNTIL AROUND 60H OR SO... \r\nWHEN THE CYCLONE WILL THEN BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 13.9N 103.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 104.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.9N 106.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 108.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.4N 109.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.6N 113.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-06-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AT THE\r\nTHRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...I HAVE OPTED NOT TO UPGRADE\r\nTHE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE MODESTLY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD\r\nREMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.  BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING COOLER\r\nWATERS AND IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING\r\nWILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nMY BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION...285/11...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING.  MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nSTEERING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST\r\nWITH DECELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE\r\nSHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.  BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY FASTER INITIAL\r\nMOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THAT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 14.5N 104.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.9N 106.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 112.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-06-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005\r\n \r\nIN CONTRAST TO THE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT WERE\r\nPRESENT OVERNIGHT...A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SEEMS TO BE\r\nCONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  SHIP 9VVN AT 12Z\r\nREPORTED 30 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND\r\nOUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS CONCEIVABLE THE WINDS ARE\r\nSLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 35 KT BENEATH THE\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY UNTIL\r\nWE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND ESTIMATED AT\r\n285/11...WHICH IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IN GOES IMAGERY. THE ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION IS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PACE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...BUT THE FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.\r\nBEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...ACCOMPANIED\r\nBY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...UNTIL\r\nREACHING AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS AND COOLER WATERS IN\r\nABOUT TWO DAYS. WEAKENING AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW\r\nLEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 14.8N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N 109.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 16.3N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.7N 112.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-06-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS PERSISTED DURING\r\nTHE DAY...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5.  ANOTHER REPORT FROM\r\nSHIP 9VVN NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...THIS TIME IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT AND AGAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATED\r\n30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT WINDS ARE STRONGER BENEATH THE CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTRMM AND SSMI IMAGERY NEAR 16Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ IS\r\nSLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/11.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER\r\nTHAN AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS.  ON THIS REVISED TRACK...BEATRIZ SHOULD REACH COOLER\r\nWATERS A BIT SOONER AND WILL PROBABLY REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS.  THE SPEED OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHAT OF THE GFDL...SO THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM GFDL WAS FOLLOWED\r\nCLOSELY.  SINCE SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEVELOP A NEW SYSTEM\r\nFARTHER EAST AND EVENTUALLY BRING A WEAKENING BEATRIZ TO THE\r\nSOUTH...IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST THE EVENTUAL REMNANT\r\nLOW WILL TRAVEL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 15.5N 106.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.2N 108.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N 110.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-06-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED JUN 22 2005\r\n \r\nA HEALTHY BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS PRODUCING A NICE ROUND\r\nCDO-LIKE FEATURE. ROTATION OF THE CLOUD TOPS WOULD PLACE THE CENTER\r\nA LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...BUT A 25 KT NORTHWEST WIND FROM SHIP 9VVY\r\nIN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CLOUD MASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER\r\nIS NORTH OF 15.5N...BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\nAMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 22/2121Z ALSO IMPLIES A POSITION A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n45 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS AMSU PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 997.7 MB AT\r\n2120Z. AFWA CAME IN WITH A 65 KT ESTIMATE...AND BEATRIZ COULD BE\r\nCLOSER TO 50 OR EVEN 55 KT NOW...BUT I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT AND SEE\r\nIF THE CDO-LIKE FEATURE PERSISTS AND IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nBECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONINGS. BEATRIZ IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH WEAKENS SLIGHTLY. AFTER PASSING\r\nOVER MUCH COOLER SSTS BY 36 HOURS...BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A\r\nRAPID WEAKENING TREND AND THEN BE STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SINCE 00Z SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nBEATRIZ MAY BE MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE CDO-LIKE\r\nFEATURE. IF THIS TREND PERSISTS...THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BEATRIZ\r\nCOULD PEAK IN ABOUT 18 HOURS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES SUB-26C SSTS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS BEATRIZ TO 52 KT IN 18 HOURS\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...AFTER WHICH STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING OCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 15.8N 107.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 109.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.9N 111.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N 113.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 117.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-06-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP TO 3.5...CORRESPONDING TO AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KT...AT 06Z...THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISHED.  MOREOVER...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nRAGGED-LOOKING WITH NO DISCERNABLE BANDING.  CONTINUITY FROM\r\nPREVIOUS VISIBLE FIXES SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  ASSUMING THIS...AND USING THE SHEAR\r\nPATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ONE OBTAINS A T-NUMBER CLOSER\r\nTO 3.0.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND IS ACKNOWLEDGED IN THE\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL BE CLOSING SOON AS THE STORM HEADS FOR\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THAT SHOWN BY THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA BREAKS DOWN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED TO A DRIFT BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD TURN SOUTHWARD OR\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD IN 4-5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...BEATRIZ\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO A WEAK REMNANT LOW THAT WILL BE\r\nSTEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 16.3N 109.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.8N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 17.4N 113.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.8N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.9N 115.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 116.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-06-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005\r\n \r\nBEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING NEAR 45\r\nKT.  A TRMM OVERPASS NEAR 07Z DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER BENEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nWHICH HAS DECREASED SINCE 09Z.  WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT DUE TO THE\r\nLOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DETERIORATING\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 295/12 AND SHOULD CROSS\r\nTHE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM LATER TODAY...AS IT ENTERS AN\r\nINCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT.  THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  TIME HAS JUST ABOUT\r\nRUN OUT FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND GIVEN THE RECENT\r\nDECREASE IN CONVECTION A WEAKENING TREND COULD BE IMMINENT.  SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL DOES SO ONLY FOR ONLY 12 MORE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS.  BEYOND ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN...AND THE EVENTUAL REMNANT\r\nLOW SHOULD THEN DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE\r\nWINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 16.9N 109.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 17.4N 111.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.9N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.2N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-06-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005\r\n \r\nAFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nBEATRIZ HAS BECOME EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF WEAK AND POORLY\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\n55 KT...A 1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED AT BEST 45 KT WINDS...\r\nPOSSIBLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  BASED\r\nON THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.  THE STORM IS MOVING INTO COOLER\r\nWATER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nREVISED TO HAVING BEATRIZ BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 72\r\nHR...AND IT MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/11.  BEATRIZ SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING\r\nBECOMES DOMINANT.  MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS THE REMNANTS OF\r\nBEATRIZ SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CYCLONE\r\nFORMING TO THE EAST.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING\r\nGENESIS AND IN FORECASTING HOW CLOSE THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY BE...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 48 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 17.2N 111.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.6N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.9N 114.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 115.2W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-06-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AND WHAT LITTLE THERE IS\r\nREMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK T\r\nAND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT BEATRIZ HAS FALLEN\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE\r\nOVER SUB 26C SSTS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9.  THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nAND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE DECOUPLING FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL CURRENT WILL WEAKEN OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ ULTIMATELY\r\nPULLED SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nGULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ANTICIPATES THAT BEATRIZ WILL DISSIPATE\r\nBEFORE INTERACTING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TRAILING DISTURBANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 17.2N 111.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.7N 114.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.7N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.6N 115.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-06-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2005\r\n \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 0143Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE\r\nHIGHEST WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION WERE ABOUT 25 KT.  THIS VALUE WILL\r\nBE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE EVEN\r\nWEAKER THAN THAT BY NOW.  A SPORADIC PUFF OR TWO OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nMAY STILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SYSTEM...BUT DISSIPATION TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IS CALLED FOR IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY SINCE\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGERY.  LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...SO A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nPREDICTED.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEATRIZ'S REMNANT LOW\r\nWILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BEFORE BEING PULLED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD\r\nOR SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A TRAILING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 17.5N 112.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.7N 113.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.9N 114.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.9N 115.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-06-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN\r\nSOME MORE AND TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN.  AN EVENTUAL DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOR EVEN SOUTH COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE LOW DISSIPATES IN TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS...IF IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEW CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION THAT IS FORECAST BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO\r\nDEVELOP FARTHER EAST.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BEATRIZ. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 17.9N 113.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 18.1N 113.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 18.2N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.2N 115.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.1N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-06-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005\r\n \r\nAFTER A SLOW AND UNSTEADY GENESIS PERIOD...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED\r\nTO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BURSTS OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  BASED ON THE ESTIMATES AND THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  THERE IS A\r\nSHIP REPORT OF 34 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED\r\nWIND DIRECTION...PRESSURE...AND WAVE HEIGHT APPEAR SUSPECT...AND\r\nTHE OVERALL RELIABILITY OF THE REPORT IS UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE\r\nSOUTHERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION\r\nOF NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN HAS CREATED A WEAK STEERING\r\nPATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST\r\nTHREE DAYS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE\r\nOVERALL TRACK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED...WITH THE\r\nGFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND\r\nCANADIAN.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED BETWEEN\r\nTHESE MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN\r\nUNTIL IT HITS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 72 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER GFDL AND\r\nTHE WEAKER SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM IN CASE IT COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WINDS ONSHORE.  RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 13.9N  98.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 14.4N  99.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 15.4N 101.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.1N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.6N 105.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-06-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED EATERLY TO EASTERLY IN 1ST PARAGRAPH...AND CLOSE TO COAST\r\nIN 2ND PARAGRAPH.\r\n \r\nTHE POSITION OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THIS\r\nEVENING...ALTHOUGH AN SSMI PASS AT 0045Z AND THE ACAPULCO RADAR\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nLOCATION UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH WERE\r\n2.5 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...\r\nI PREFER TO HOLD THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 30 KT.  ALL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN.  IN FACT...THE\r\nGFDL MAKES THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nIS LESS AGGRESSIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THIS\r\nGUIDANCE BUT SHOULD THE EASTERLY SHEAR NOT DIMINISH THIS FORECAST\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE OVERDONE.  BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nREACHING COLDER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/3. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS TROUGH MAY\r\nBE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENT.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN...AND THAT WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE SHOULD BE A\r\nRIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nBEND THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nTHE CENTER WILL GET.  GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST\r\nAND CONSEQUENTLY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nRAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE\r\nWATCH AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 14.1N  98.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 14.8N  98.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 15.6N 100.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.3N 102.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-06-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS\r\nBETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. A 27/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND THE DECISION TO NAME THE SYSTEM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nAFWA...PLUS A UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE AODT ESTIMATE OF T2.6/36 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 330/04. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE REASONING OF THE TWO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nDISCUSSIONS. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY CONSISTENT ON\r\nGRADUALLY BUILDING THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO TURN CALVIN NORTHWESTWARD LATER\r\nTODAY AND THEN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UP TO ABOUT 10 KT. CALVIN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH NEAR-26C SSTS BY 72 HOURS AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO\r\nWEAKEN...AND THEN BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING CALVIN IS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF\r\nTS BEATRIZ JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. ANOTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST\r\nWENT OFF NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...BUT\r\nHAS SINCE WEAKENED. OTHER BURSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...WITH EACH ONE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...25 TO 30 KT 300-200 MB EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN AND WILL\r\nLIKELY CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER\r\nAND PRODUCE AT LEAST 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. THE GFDL MODEL IS MUCH\r\nLESS ROBUST THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW ONLY BRINGS CALVIN UP TO\r\n56 KT IN 24 HOURS. SINCE THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS FROM CALVIN ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS ANY\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE...THE EXISTING WATCH\r\nSHOULD SUFFICE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 14.6N  98.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N  99.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N 101.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N 103.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.9N 105.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-06-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2005\r\n \r\nON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT\r\nIMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...RADAR IMAGES FROM THE COMISION\r\nNACIONAL DEL AGUA ACAPULCO REVEAL A RATHER WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL RAIN\r\nBAND STRUCTURE. THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  CALVIN IS\r\nIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...SO WEAKENING IS PROBABLE AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n\r\nCALVIN HAS BEGUN TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nNOW 310/7.  SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE...FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES...IS LIKELY.\r\n \r\nTHE LEFTWARD TURN REDUCES THE THREAT TO THE COAST...AND IF A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ESTABLISHED...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nCOULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 14.8N  99.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.3N 100.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 15.9N 102.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 104.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-06-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005\r\n \r\nACAPULCO RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN FACT...THE SPIRAL BANDING IS NOT AS WELL\r\nDEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nALSO SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 AND THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. \r\nCALVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.  BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS\r\nSO WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE COMMENCED BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES BUT THE STORM HAS\r\nAPPARENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 300/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY\r\nSTRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND PROVIDING AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW.  BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...\r\nTHIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION REDUCES THE THREAT TO THE COAST...AND\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH CAN PROBABLY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. \r\nHOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 15.4N 100.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.8N 102.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.8N 106.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N 108.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 18.0N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 117.5W    20 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-06-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 27 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATIONS OF CALVIN HAVE DETERIORATED\r\nDRAMATICALLY THIS EVENING.  ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED AND THE BANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED.  TWO\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES NEAR 01Z INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS ABOUT 50 NMI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF WHAT ROTATION CAN BE\r\nSEEN ALOFT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT CALVIN IS NEAR\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  CALVIN STILL HAS 24-36 HOURS\r\nOVER WARM WATER...SO THE CONVECTION COULD WELL RETURN...BUT GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN ANYTIME\r\nSOON...AND CALVIN IS LIKELY TO STRUGGLE IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT\r\nUNTIL ITS INEVITABLE DEMISE.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGEST LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL CALVIN\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS.  \r\n\r\nCALVIN REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK...295/9.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...BASED ON THE DETERIORATING STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN AN\r\nEASTERLY SHEARING FLOW...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL\r\nMODEL.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CALVIN ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT WILL GRADUALLY EDGE AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 15.8N 101.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.2N 103.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.1N 107.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-06-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005\r\n \r\nCALVIN REMAINS AN UGLY TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A\r\nMODEST INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nNOTED OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM\r\n35 TO 45 KT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS ABOUT 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER REPORTED 20-25 KT WINDS AT 06Z. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE WEAKER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. CALVIN REMAINS ON TRACK...SO\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SHIFT\r\nIT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...OR TO THE LEFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\n28/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE MEXICAN\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS FILLED IN AND\r\nDEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT CALVIN. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WAS NOTED UPSTREAM EAST OF ACAPULCO THAT\r\nSHOULD AFFECT CALVIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY\r\nBE BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO BEFORE CALVIN REACHES COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AND MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR. AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN 12\r\nHOURS...BUT THERE COULD EASILY BE 5 KT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AT\r\nANY TIME BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY\r\nSINCE CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 15.9N 102.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 16.2N 103.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 16.8N 107.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 17.0N 109.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-06-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005\r\n\r\nCALVIN HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED...NEAR 11 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN\r\nEMBEDDED IN A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO A\r\nCONTINUED MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST.  THIS IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN...BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO...THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n35 KT...IN LINE WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH PROSPECT FOR\r\nRESTRENGTHENING SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER A\r\nDAY OR SO WHEN CALVIN TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MEXICO IS DISCONTINUED...AND PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE BEING TERMINATED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 16.1N 104.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.3N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 16.6N 107.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.8N 109.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N 111.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 17.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Calvin","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-06-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005\r\n \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...IF IT STILL\r\nEXISTS...HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED.  IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN IS IN\r\nTHE PROCESS OF DEGENERATING INTO AN EAST-WEST ELONGATED TROUGH.  A\r\nSMALL LOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHIS TROUGH...BUT CONTINUITY FROM NIGHTTIME IR CHANNEL COMBINATION\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THIS WEAK SWIRL IS NOT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nCALVIN HAS WEAKENED TO AN ESTIMATED 25 KT INTENSITY...AND GIVEN THE\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS LIKELY.  ADVISORIES MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST AND INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 260/10.  CALVIN...OR ITS REMNANT...IS PREDICTED TO\r\nMOVE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWING THE NEAR-SURFACE\r\nEASTERLY FLOW...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 15.5N 105.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.4N 106.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.3N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.2N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 15.1N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Calvin","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-06-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CALVIN HAS DEGENERATED TO A\r\nCLOUD SWIRL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER ELONGATED AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE. WHILE THERE IS SPORADIC CONVECTION WITHIN THE LARGER LOW\r\nAND IN THE VICINITY OF CALVIN...THERE IS INSUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION\r\nTO CONSIDER THIS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY ON CALVIN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 235/5...AS CALVIN APPEARS TO BE ROTATING\r\nCOUNTER-CLOCKWISE WITHIN THE BROADER LOW.  A CONTINUED TURN TO THE\r\nSOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 14.8N 105.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 14.1N 106.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 13.3N 106.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-07-04 04:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n9 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFOUR-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 04/00Z WERE A CONSENSUS\r\nT1.5/25 KT...BUT RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT A TIGHT BANDING FEATURE\r\nHAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. STRONG CONVECTION HAS\r\nALSO DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND A 04/0014Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED A TIGHT SURFACE CIRCULATION AND A FEW\r\nUNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO AND TEXAS. THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY FILL IN AND CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED\r\nBY 36 HOURS OR SO. A MORE WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 72 HOURS\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND WEAKENS...AND IS STEERED\r\nMORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL MODEL\r\nBRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE TO MEXICAN COAST IN\r\n24-36 HOURS...WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH AND WARNING FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTD-3E IS A SMALL AND COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL\r\nBE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...A\r\nSTRONG BURST OF -75 TO -80C TOPS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR SOME DECENT OUTFLOW TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP. THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVING OVER\r\nCOLDER WATER AFTERWARDS...WILL PROBABLY PREVENT THIS CYCLONE FROM\r\nREACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0400Z 14.8N  99.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 15.4N 100.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 16.2N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.9N 102.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 17.8N 103.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 106.8W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-07-04 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF COLD CONVECTION\r\nWITH TOPS TO -85C...WITH RADAR IMAGERY FROM ACAPULCO SHOWING THE\r\nCENTER ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MEXICO.  THIS\r\nTROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT\r\n72 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AS WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOTION TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONTO THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST AT ALMOST ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WITH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN INTO\r\nA TROPICAL STORM.  THE BIGGEST SHORT-TERM QUESTION IS HOW FAR WILL\r\nTHE CENTER BE FROM SHORE...AS ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CYCLONE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO SLOW OR STOP DEVELOPMENT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CENTER WILL\r\nSTAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND CALLS FOR\r\n55 KT WINDS IN 36 KT.  THIS IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAT THE 55-60 KT\r\nFORECAST BY SHIPS AND THE 60-65 KT FORECAST BY THE GFDL.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 15.4N 100.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 16.8N 101.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 17.7N 102.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 18.5N 104.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-07-04 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n \r\nEARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER\r\nEAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.  TWO EARLIER PARTIAL TRMM AND SSM/I\r\nOVERPASSES ALSO HELPED TO CONFIRM THAT THE CENTER WAS TUCKED\r\nBENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM\r\nACAPULCO DEPICTS THE STRONGEST OF THE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH DEPRESSION ARE DISSIPATING OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE A BAND DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN QUADRANT.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF\r\nTHE COLDEST TOPS SITUATED NEAR/ALONG THE COAST.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT FROM THE FIX AGENCIES.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT\r\nWARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE\r\nBANDING DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWEST...340/6. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MID/UPPER RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A\r\nPLAYER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...ALONG OR OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HAS INDUCED A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME LESS OF AN\r\nINFLUENCE ...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...PLACING IT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS IN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHUS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE IF\r\nNOT OVER THE COAST...CAUSING A WEAKENING TREND.  THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH THE\r\nASSUMPTION OF A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER DAY 3 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 15.9N  99.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 100.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.3N 101.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 18.1N 102.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 18.9N 104.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-07-04 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...ACAPULCO RADAR...AND ENHANCED INFRARED ANIMATION\r\nDEPICT A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED BANDING\r\nFEATURE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST. BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CONVECTION...35 KT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 2 OF THE 3 AGENCIES...AND A 30 KT SHIP\r\nREPORT FROM THE WEST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...THE INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWEST...310/8.  AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED\r\nMID/UPPER RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO/BAJA PENINSULA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INCREASINGLY TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MOVING THE SYSTEM AWAY FROM\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nA COMBINATION OF THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE\r\nPROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE COAST SHOULD HINDER\r\nFURTHER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON THE SHIPS MODEL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A TRACK\r\nBRUSHING THE COAST.  DORA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER DAY 3 AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 16.9N 100.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.1N 102.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N 104.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.3N 105.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W    40 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-07-05 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL STORM\r\nDORA HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING\r\nAROUND A SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND\r\nHAS PREVENTED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FROM\r\nOCCURRING. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT ANY WORSE THAN\r\nWHEN A 40-KT SHIP REPORT WAS RECEIVED EARLIER IN THE DAY...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS\r\nALSO CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED\r\nEAST-WEST ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA IS BEGINNING\r\nTO EXERT MORE OF A WESTWARD INFLUENCE ON DORA...POSSIBLY AT A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY. A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO...ROUGHLY PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO. OF COURSE...\r\nANY WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE...BUT BY 48\r\nHOURS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO TOWARD COLDER\r\nWATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE BAM MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING...BUT THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY TO THE MEXICAN COAST HAS LIKELY BEEN INHIBITING\r\nDEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER THAT CAN SPIN UP THE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX...BUT ANY\r\nSUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS\r\nPULLING AWAY FROM MEXICO...THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...AND\r\nLOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS DORA UP TO 62 KT IN 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 17.2N 101.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 17.7N 102.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 18.4N 103.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 105.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 20.0N 110.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 20.0N 114.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-07-05 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n\r\nTHE AERIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DORA HAS DECREASED\r\nTHIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A PERSISTENT CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTIVE FEATURE WITH OCCASIONAL CLOUD TOPS TO -80C JUST OFF THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/12...FASTER AND SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE\r\nLEFT THAN 6 HR AGO.  DORA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT COVERS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST\r\nFOR AT LEAST 96 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER DORA GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-48 HR...AND THEN WESTWARD FROM 48-96 HR. \r\nTHERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE IN THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE...AS THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ALL TAKE DORA NORTHWESTWARD FROM 48-72 HR BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATING THE SYSTEM....WHILE THE NHC91 AND THE VARIOUS BAM\r\nMODELS FORECAST A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE NHC91/BAM\r\nSCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nDORA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR.  PROXIMITY TO THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS LIKELY BEEN SLOWING DEVELOPMENT...BUT DORA\r\nSHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THOSE MOUNTAINS AFTER 12-24 HR.  THIS\r\nCOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER\r\nWATER IN 36-48 HR.  AS NOTED...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL WEAKEN\r\nDORA...INCLUDING THE GFDL THAT CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AFTER 42 HR. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS THE STORM TO 50 KT IN 36 HR...WITH\r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH SHIPS...BUT CALLS FOR A 45 KT PEAK INTENSITY IN 36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 17.9N 103.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 104.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.2N 106.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.7N 107.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.1N 109.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 20.5N 117.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-07-05 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION WAS SUFFICIENT AT 12Z FOR DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF\r\nT2.5/35KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO DECREASE SINCE THEN. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nGENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AT 35 KT... AND THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nDORA HAS ALREADY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND IS BEGINNING A\r\nWEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM SHOULD FOR ABOUT THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 26 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS...AND WITHIN A MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THERE\r\nIS STILL A CHANCE THAT DORA WILL BRIEFLY RECOVER AND PERHAPS GAIN A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE TO NEAR 45 KT AT 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nTHEREAFTER AS DORA PASSES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/11...VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING ALSO REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED.  THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE DORA TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR\r\nABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE DISSIPATING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD\r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN BUT ALONG THE SAME HEADING AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 18.3N 104.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 105.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.7N 107.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 20.2N 109.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 20.6N 110.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dora","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-07-05 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nDORA HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nLARGE SCATTER IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES...AND THERE IS\r\nALSO A LARGE RANGE IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nALSO REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO CONTINUE TO STEER\r\nDORA WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE BAM MODELS CONSENSUS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED\r\nQUITE WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM THUS FAR.\r\n\r\nTHERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...ANY OF WHICH COULD BRIEFLY SPIN UP THE CIRCULATION TO\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD\r\nBE FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLD WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 18.5N 105.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N 106.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 19.2N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 19.6N 110.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.9N 112.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dora","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-07-06 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A LACK\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION AND A POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...CONFIRMED BY THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITION\r\nESTIMATES.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO\r\n25 AND 30 KT.  INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10.  DORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nWITHIN THE LOW/MID STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE BAM MODELS...NHC/91 STATISTICAL\r\nMODEL...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DIURNAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY HELP TO MAINTAIN\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO OCCUR AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 18.6N 106.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.8N 107.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 109.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 19.2N 111.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.3N 113.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dora","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-07-06 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR APPROXIMATELY 18 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING INTO A POORLY DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10...AND SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DORA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT\r\nLOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER\r\nFZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 18.5N 107.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 18.6N 108.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.8N 110.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-07-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 285 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO\r\nMEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS FORMED...SO ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED.  12Z DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB... CORRESPONDING TO AN\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  HOWEVER... SHIP MSTM6 AT 12Z...\r\nLOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...\r\nREPORTED 30 KT WINDS FROM THE WEST.  SINCE WINDS COULD EASILY BE A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER TO THE NORTH OR EAST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED EUGENE... THE\r\nFIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.  EUGENE\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 36 HOURS TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN... WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR... BEFORE REACHING THE 26\r\nCELSIUS ISOTHERM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE AND PEAKS AT 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  EUGENE IS BEING STEERED\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... IN A LOCATION JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER\r\nNORTH THAN AVERAGE FOR JULY.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND\r\nINDUCE EUGENE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING... AWAY FROM\r\nTHE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO... UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND\r\nWEAKENS AFTER 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER... EUGENE AND ITS EVENTUAL\r\nREMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.1N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 109.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.7N 111.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-07-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL DEPTH OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED... BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE UNANIMOUSLY INCREASED TO T2.5/35\r\nKT... WITH DATA T NUMBERS AS HIGH AS 3.0.  GIVEN THE INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  THE\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL EUGENE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR\r\nA PEAK AT 55 KT... JUST SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF EUGENE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING WITH THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ELONGATED EAST TO\r\nWEST.  AS A RESULT...THE STORM IS MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK... WITH INITIAL MOTION NOW ESTIMATED AT 300/10.  THE\r\nMODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CONTINUING THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR ABOUT\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS... ALTHOUGH AT GREATLY DIFFERING SPEEDS DUE AT\r\nLEAST IN PART TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION STRENGTH. \r\nSINCE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST IN ITS CURRENT LOCATION... THE CURRENT FORWARD\r\nSPEED ARE DIRECTION ARE USED TO CONSTRUCT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THIS IS FASTER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL BUT SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE UKMET.  ON THIS TRACK... EUGENE SHOULD PARALLEL THE\r\nPACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BUT THEN MOVE AWAY FROM\r\nTHE COAST TO THE WEST.   BEYOND 48 HOURS... A WEAKENING EUGENE AND\r\nITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD IN THE LOWER LEVEL\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.1N 105.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N 106.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N 109.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.6N 111.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-07-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECENT AMSR-E AQUA-1 OVERPASS\r\nDEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE OUTER\r\nBANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS REMAIN INTACT.\r\nRECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP BURST\r\nJUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES ARE 35 KT. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AGREE WITH MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS BENEATH A RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMET...BEFORE\r\nA WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES OVER COOLER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nSIMILAR WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5....OR SOONER. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN\r\n36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PREVIOUS\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SPEED\r\nDISPARITIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH ALL AGREE WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BASED OFF\r\nOF THE ECMWF AND THE BAMM...BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.8N 105.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.9N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.8N 109.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 111.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-07-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH\r\nDEVELOPING BANDS OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTH QUADRANTS AND COLDER\r\nTOPS. THE WIND RADII HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SE AND SW QUADRANTS\r\nWHERE THE STRONGER BANDS RESIDE USING THE QUIKSCAT DATA. SATELLITE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA AND 45 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON\r\nIMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND THE TWO DVORAK 45 KT CLASSIFICATIONS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED\r\nOFF OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WITH STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE GLOBAL MODELS ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WEAKENING TREND WITH\r\nDISSIPATION IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nANIMATION...PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES...AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. \r\nEUGENE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SW\r\nUNITED STATES. AFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO TRACK WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES THROUGH THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE BAMM AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBUT SLIGHTLY FASTER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 17.9N 107.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.9N 108.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 20.2N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N 111.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 21.6N 112.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-07-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EUGENE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH AN\r\nEXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTION...A MORE EMBEDDED CENTER...AND GOOD\r\nBANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.  ADDITIONAL STENGTHENING IS LIKELY\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN ANOTHER 6 HOURS OR SO EUGENE WILL BE\r\nCROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND THAT SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER DECLINE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND\r\nFASTER THAN BEFORE.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST\r\nOF EUGENE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO WITH ANOTHER RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN ARIZONA.  A WEAKNESS IN BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS\r\nALLOWING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHES THE LATTER FEATURE.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED A\r\nLITTLE BIT COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO...BUT THERE REMAINS AN\r\nUNCOMFORTABLE SPREAD WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL SHOWING A CLOSE\r\nAPPROACH TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WIND RADIUS IS ABOUT 90 NM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY AND RADII FORECASTS KEEP TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS OFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  WHILE EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN AFTER MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THE RADII SHOULD PULL\r\nIN AS THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES...ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE\r\nTRACK/INTENSITY/RADII FORECASTS COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS TO EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 19.0N 108.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 20.3N 109.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N 111.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.6N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-07-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES CONTINUED TO IMPROVE MARKEDLY DURING THE EARLY\r\nAFTERNOON... BRINGING DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z UP TO 3.5 AND\r\n4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...ALTHOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT EUGENE HAS REACHED\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDECREASED OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...HOWEVER...AND EUGENE HAS\r\nALREADY PASSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM.  CONSEQUENTLY...NO ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL TRENDS...WHICH CALL FOR A FAIRLY RAPID\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOWER DECAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...AND OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS EVEN\r\nMORE WEST THAN THAT.  EUGENE WAS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT NOT THIS QUICKLY. SHOULD THIS\r\nMOTION BE MAINTAINED THEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL NOT REACH\r\nBAJA...BUT WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MOTION FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS\r\nTO BE CERTAIN THAT THE TURN HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED. MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS STILL BASICALLY NORTHWEST FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nPRECEDING FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 20.0N 109.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 21.2N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 22.2N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 22.6N 115.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-07-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2005\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. EARLIER\r\nBANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS HAVE VIRTUALLY\r\nDISSIPATED. COOLER CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER. APPARENTLY...THERMODYNAMIC\r\nEFFECTS...DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMARINE LAYER... AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES... HAVE HAD A\r\nDRAMATIC IMPACT ON EUGENE. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.5 (35\r\nKT) TO 3.5 (55 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH\r\nMAY BE GENEROUS AT THIS POINT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nTRENDS...CALLING FOR A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS BY DAY 3 AND\r\nDISSIPATION BY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12. THE LATEST GFS RUN SEEMS TO HAVE THE\r\nBEST HANDLE ON THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE GFS IS THE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATING A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...\r\nWHILE ALL OTHER MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nOVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GFS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...THEN TRACKING WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW AS A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 20.4N 111.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 21.0N 112.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 21.7N 114.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 22.1N 116.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-07-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2005\r\n \r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICTED THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME AN\r\nEXPOSED CIRCULATION...WITH REMAINING WEAK CONVECTION CONFINED WELL\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER HAS ALSO\r\nBECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. DRIER AND MORE\r\nSTABLE CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE LAYER AND COOLER\r\nWATERS SHOULD WEAKEN EUGENE TO A REMNANT SWIRL OF CLOUDS DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...OR LESS. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.0\r\n(30 KT) TO 2.5 (35 KT). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A MODEST 40\r\nKT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING WITH\r\nDISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BECAUSE OF THE RELATIVELY RAPID\r\nWEAKENING TREND EUGENE IS EXPERIENCING...ADVISORIES MAY BE\r\nDISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nBASED OFF OF THE PREVIOUS MICROWAVE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....WITH A\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nWITHIN THE LOW/MID STEERING FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 21.1N 111.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 21.8N 112.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 22.5N 114.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 23.2N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eugene","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-07-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH SOME MULTI-LAYERED MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE\r\nDEBRIS.  SINCE EUGENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 24 DEG\r\nC...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS.  ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THEREFORE SOME RELOCATION\r\nIS REQUIRED.  INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 315/8.  A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS EUGENE...OR ITS REMNANT...FOLLOWS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 21.7N 111.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 22.7N 114.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N 116.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eugene","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-07-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2005\r\n \r\nEARLIER TODAY...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT EUGENE HAD\r\nMAINTAINED A 30-KT CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS DUE TO THE SYSTEM\r\nHAVING BEEN OVER COOL WATER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT WINDS HAVE NOW\r\nDECREASED TO 25 KNOTS. EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS...AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON EUGENE.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 22.3N 111.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 23.0N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-09 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nLOCATED 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF LA PAZ MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED INTO\r\nTHE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON. A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 1313Z SHOWS A FIELD OF 25 KT WIND VECTORS WITH\r\nSOME RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT VECTORS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THIS COMBINED WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES YIELDS\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES\r\nAN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD OFF THE\r\nCOAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP LURE THE\r\nDEPRESSION MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HELP STEER THE SYSTEM\r\nMORE WESTWARD JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE PASSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. IF\r\nTHE SYSTEM TRACKS FARTHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED...THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION WOULD BE GREATER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS\r\nTONIGHT... WHICH WOULD STILL KEEP THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nTWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL PACE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROTH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 14.2N 115.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.4N 116.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 14.9N 118.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 15.6N 120.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 16.3N 122.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 17.2N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 18.1N 129.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 18.9N 133.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-09 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ON THE\r\nVERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nCONSTRAINED AT T2.0 FROM SAB AND T1.5 FROM TAFB...BUT THE SYSTEMS\r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY\r\nLEADING TO DATA T NUMBERS OF T2.5 FROM SAB AND T3.0 FROM TAFB. THE\r\n1826Z QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF 25 KT WINDS NORTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...WITH RAIN-FLAGGED 40 KT WINDS IN ITS INFLOW BAND. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 30 KTS AT THIS\r\nTIME. \r\n\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NR 25N 117W WHICH\r\nWILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HRS...WHICH SHOULD HELP LURE THE DEPRESSION MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD HELP\r\nSTEER THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD JUST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES BY THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM. THE SHORT TERM TRACK HAS SHIFTED LEFT/ MORE WESTWARD\r\nDUE TO THE DEPRESSIONS PERSISTENT WESTWARD COURSE.  THE CURRENT\r\nTRACK IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH \r\nINCLUDES THE GFS/BAM SUITE/CANADIAN/GFDL MODELS...BUT TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF CLIPER AND EXTRAPOLATION AND CLOSEST TO THE UKMET. THE 12Z\r\nGFS THREW A NEW WRINKLE INTO THE FORECAST BY DROPPING A SECOND\r\nUPPER CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH COULD INCREASE THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY..SLOWED DOWN THE TRACK FROM\r\nCONTINUITY...WHICH IS ALSO A SLIGHT NOD TOWARDS THE VERY SLOW GFDL. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSSION TO REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS SHORTLY...AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THIS IS STRONGER\r\nTHAN CONTINUITY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD KEEP\r\nTHE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATERS FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. IF THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED/NAMED...THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC WOULD REMAIN TWO STORMS BEHIND ITS NORMAL\r\nPACE...BUT STILL TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE PACE OF THE SLOW\r\n2001/2002/2004 HURRICANE SEASONS. \r\n\r\nTPC/NHC WILL TAKE OVER WRITING ADVISORIES ON THIS CYCLONE AT 03Z.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROTH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 14.1N 115.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.3N 117.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.6N 119.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.2N 121.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.8N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.8N 126.7W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 17.7N 129.9W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 18.6N 133.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-10 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 09 2005\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY PRESENTATION DEPICTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...AND THAT THE HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. IMPRESSIVE\r\nBANDS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS HAVE DEVELOPED AS\r\nWELL AS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 30 KT\r\nFROM AFWA.  IN VIEW OF THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES TO 40 KT. TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA\r\nIS FORECAST TO TRACK WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND DAY\r\n3...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO\r\nWEAKEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW\r\nIS BEING CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST\r\nPACIFIC FROM CENTRAL MEXICO AND INFLUENCED SOMEWHAT BY A CUT-OFF LOW\r\nDRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST THIS OVERALL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL\r\nTHROUGH DAY 3. AFTERWARDS...AN EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSTRETCHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINFLUENCE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nECMWF...GFS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...UKMENT AND THE GFDL. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SLOWER TO\r\nCONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.     \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 14.8N 116.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.3N 117.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 124.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-10 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A SMALL ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nFERNANDA.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45\r\nKT...HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z WAS NOT IMPRESSIVE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA.  THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE WATER WILL BE WARM FOR\r\nANOTHER 48 HOURS.  WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED IMMEDIATELY TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF FERNANDA...INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  FERNANDA SHOULD BE\r\nCROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHEN A WEAKENING\r\nTREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA IS DISRUPTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL CREATE\r\nA WEAKER THAN NORMAL STEERING FLOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK\r\nFOR ABOUT THREE DAYS.  BY THAT POINT...FERNANDA SHOULD HAVE\r\nBYPASSED THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN FERNANDA WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS SOLUTION IS THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER...BUT ITS TRACK APPEARS TO BE CONTAMINATED BY\r\nTHE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WAVE BEHIND FERNANDA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 15.3N 117.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.8N 120.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.4N 121.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 18.5N 124.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N 128.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-10 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n \r\nFERNANDA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING WITH IMPROVED\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND AN INFRARED WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY SHOWING UP\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CDO FEATURE. A 0651Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO\r\nINDICATED A 10 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE LOW- AND\r\nMID-LEVELS. BASED ON THE TRMM OVERPASS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF\r\nT3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nINTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL MAINLY THE FORWARD SPEED. THE GFS STILL\r\nAPPEARS TO BE OVERDEVELOPING THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WELL TO\r\nTHE EAST OF FERNANDA...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THAT SOLUTION.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nBEING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION AND FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FERNANDA MAY BE\r\nUNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE OVERALL\r\nSYMMETRICAL CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF\r\nAT LEAST A NORMAL 20 KT...OR 1 DVORAK T-NUMBER...PER 24 HOURS SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nHOWEVER...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT HOURS OR SO IS\r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE. BY 36 HOURS...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nA GRADUALLY COOLER WATER WITH SSTS OF 24-26C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 15.6N 118.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 16.0N 119.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.4N 121.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 18.2N 125.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-10 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n \r\nFERNANDA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH TIGHTLY WRAPPED\r\nRAINBANDS AROUND THE CDO AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SMALL EYE WAS FORMING WITH CONVECTION\r\nNOW BURSTING NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO\r\n60 KT.  COMPUTER MODELS SHOW LITTLE SHEAR IN THE PATH OF THE STORM\r\nWHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL IT REACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS BELOW 26.5C IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL\r\nPROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALMOST 4 TIMES THE MEAN SO\r\nFERNANDA COULD INTENSIFY A BIT MORE THAN SUGGESTED BELOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE... 290/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nSEEMS STRAIGHT-FORWARD AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.   THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL\r\nCAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF\r\nTHE FORECAST. THE GFS HAS COME INTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AND HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS THEN\r\nNEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 15.7N 119.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 16.1N 120.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.8N 121.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.4N 123.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.8N 124.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 18.3N 126.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 18.3N 128.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 18.3N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-08-11 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 10 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE\r\nWITH IMPRESSIVE INNER AND OUTER SPIRAL BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS IMPROVING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE INNER CORE PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 60 KT.  SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST\r\nTHAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS BEFORE COOLER WATERS BEGIN TO AFFECT THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A\r\nHURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND\r\nCOMMENCES.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE PROVIDED BY A MID TO\r\nUPPER LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nINFLUENCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARDS...AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REPLACE\r\nTHE UPPER LOW CAUSING FERNANDA TO TRACK WESTWARD. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN THE NOGAPS\r\nDEVIATES TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF TRACK TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE GUNA AND\r\nCONU MODEL BLENDS AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 16.3N 120.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 122.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N 123.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.7N 124.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 126.8W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 129.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 132.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-08-11 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA BETWEEN 0Z AND 6Z INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF FERNANDA WAS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTER OF A SMALL\r\nBALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB...USING\r\nTHE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...GIVES A T4.0...AND THE 6Z ODT 3-HR T\r\nNUMBER WAS 4.1. ON THIS BASIS...FERNANDA IS UPGRADED TO A\r\nHURRICANE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nQUITE AS SYMMETRIC. WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER FERNANDA ARE ALREADY\r\nCOMING DOWN...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE IS PEAKING A\r\nLITTLE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED OR AS SHOWN BELOW.  THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8...SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nOFF OF THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT\r\nFERNANDA WILL BE MOVING WEST OF THE LONGITUDE OF THIS LOW AND\r\nSHOULD BE GRADUALLY STEERED MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT STILL FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 16.5N 120.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 121.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.6N 122.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.1N 123.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.3N 124.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.7N 126.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nT-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GETTING\r\nMORE RAGGED ON IR SATELLITE PICTURES. HOWEVER THE CENTER APPEARS TO\r\nBE SOLIDLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CDO AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD\r\nAT 65 KT IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM SAB. THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS LIKELY PEAKED WITH COOLING SSTS IN ITS PATH AND THE STABLE\r\nMARINE LAYER ALREADY IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. HOWEVER THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR WITH\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS AND THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO NEARLY PARALLEL THE 25C ISOTHERM.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS BEYOND 2 DAYS\r\nWHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH FOR CYCLONES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 25C.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7. FERNANDA HAS PASSED THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND SHOULD BECOME MORE\r\nCONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING SHOULD NUDGE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE\r\nMORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON THEN TO THE WEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\nIN ADDITION THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH WOULD ALSO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nTHE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE MEDIUM-RANGE. THE NOGAPS IS\r\nA SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER...KEEPING A VERY STRONG SYSTEM MOVING\r\nNORTHWEST BECAUSE OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE THAT WEAKENS THE HIGH\r\nMORE THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THIS SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY\r\nBECAUSE OF THE UNREASONABLE HIGHER STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nMAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST BY NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH ACCELERATES THE\r\nDECAYING SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 16.9N 121.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.4N 122.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N 123.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N 124.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.6N 125.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.8N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nSO MUCH FOR THE WEAKENING OF FERNANDA WHICH IS DISPLAYING A BANDED\r\nEYE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES THIS AFTERNOON. A 1508Z SSMI\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE THOUGH RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE EYE MAY BE SHRINKING AND CONSOLIDATING\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST PORTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BETWEEN\r\nAODT'S OF 4.4 AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NEAR 4.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE. CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT FROM THE STANDARD\r\nDVORAK CURVE BASED ON CONSECUTIVE CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATES.\r\nHOWEVER...FERNANDA IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTERM AND SHOULD FINALLY\r\nBEGIN A SLOW DECAYING TREND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE WITHIN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND PARALLELLS THE 25C ISOTHERM. WIND\r\nSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE BEYOND 3 DAYS AND FURTHER WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.\r\nFERNANDA IS BECOMING MORE CONTROLLED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH\r\nNEAR 26N130W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nAFTERWARD...FERNANDA IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NOGAPS REMAINS AN OUTLIER BY\r\nWEAKENING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND KEEPING A STRONG CYCLONE MOVING\r\nNORTHWEST THROUGH 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE\r\nNOGAPS SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED BASED ON A RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII FOLLOW WIND RADII CLIPER.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 17.3N 121.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.7N 122.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.1N 124.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.4N 125.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nFERNANDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS SYMMETRIC\r\nABOUT THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND 4.5/77 KT FROM SAB... AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE HURRICANE\r\nIS JUST ABOUT TO PASS OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN SOON. HOWEVER... UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED OVER FERNANDA... AND WEAKENING WILL LIKELY BE GRADUAL\r\nSINCE THE WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE\r\nTHROUGH 12 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FOUR DAYS... AND\r\nOVERALL IS A LITTLE LESS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM TRMM... SSMI... AND AMSU\r\nEARLIER TODAY INDICATE THAT FERNANDA TOOK A JOG TO THE WEST DURING\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS... BUT THE SMOOTHED MOTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS\r\nBEEN 300/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL\r\nRIDGE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND CENTERED NEAR 25N130W...\r\nBUT THE RIDGE IS WEAKER DUE NORTH OF FERNANDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A\r\nSMALL MID/UPPER LOW NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN RESPONSE\r\nTO THIS PATTERN... MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO... UNTIL THE\r\nRIDGE FORCES A WEAKENING FERNANDA ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST OR\r\nPERHAPS EVEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST. THE OUTLYING NOGAPS SOLUTION\r\nTHAT TAKES FERNANDA SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IS DISCOUNTED... SINCE\r\nTHAT MODEL INITIALIZED THE RIDGE TOO FAR TO THE WEST... RESULTING\r\nIN TOO MUCH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR\r\nA CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS AS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 17.8N 122.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.3N 123.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.9N 124.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 126.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 127.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 134.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nFERNANDA REMAINS A SYMMETRIC STORM WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...A RECENT TRIM OVERPASS DETECTED A\r\nSOMEWHAT RAGGED EYE THAT WAS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST.  BASED ON THE\r\nMIRCROWAVE DATA THE INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 70 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM VERY SHORTLY. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS FERNANDA A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12\r\nHOURS THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER\r\nWATERS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL SINCE THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nFORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/7. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARDS THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE FEW DAYS AS A STRONG\r\nNORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IN THE LONGER RANGE A WEAKER FERNANDA\r\nMAY TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AS THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL\r\nSTEERING BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 18.1N 123.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.6N 124.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.1N 125.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.4N 126.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.3N 128.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N 131.2W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n\r\nFERNANDA HAS LOST SOME OF ITS SYMMETRY OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS DECREASED WITH THE\r\nGREATEST CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE A STEADY CONSENSUS 4.5 OR 77\r\nKT.  UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA ARE\r\nALSO 4.5 RESPECTIVELY.  THE INTENSITY FOR FERNANDA REMAINS 75 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. THE TRACK OF\r\nFERNANDA KEEPS IT OVER 24 DEGREE C SST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...CONSEQUENTLY SHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND FINALLY WEAKEN IT TO DEPRESSION\r\nSTATUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FERNANDA IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE DUE WEST IN THE MIDDLE AND EXTENDED FORECAST\r\nPERIODS IN RESPONSE TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING LOCATED NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE SYSTEM.  AS FERNANDA WEAKENS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...IT\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNA AND CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 18.5N 123.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.9N 125.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.3N 126.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.4N 127.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.1N 129.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 133.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 140.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n\r\nFERNANDA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS A 75 KT HURRICANE.  A\r\nNICE EYE IS PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND DMSP SSMI DATA SHOW A\r\nMORE SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM OVERALL.  TAFB AND SAB REPORT DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES OF 4.5 AND THE OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS ALSO 4.5 SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT. HOWEVER... FINAL T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED SO FERNANDA HAS LIKELY\r\nREACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. BOTH\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL WEAKEN FERNANDA TO A TROPICAL STORM AFTER 24\r\nHOURS... AND IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IT FURTHER WEAKENS TO\r\nA DEPRESSION AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE OVER 24 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS THAT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE\r\nSYSTEM.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/8. AGAIN... THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS ADJUSTED A BIT MORE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE\r\nEXTENDED PERIODS... THIS IS CLOSE TO THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nGFDL TRACKS.  IN COMPARISON... THE GFS MODEL IS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS AND NOGAPS IS MORE NORTH.  THE TRACK ADJUSTMENT IS MINOR\r\nAND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL AND MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 18.7N 124.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 126.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.2N 127.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 129.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N 141.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...FERNANDA'S\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT...AS THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DECREASING BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...FERNANDA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER WESTERLIES SLOWLY\r\nINCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A RIDGE BUILDING BETWEEN GREG AND FERNANDA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 18.9N 125.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 19.1N 126.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.1N 128.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 18.7N 130.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N 131.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.2N 135.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 16.5N 138.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 142.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE OUTER BANDS...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  \r\nHOWEVER...DEEP CORE CONVECTION PERSISTS.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY DATA-T NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT\r\nFROM AFWA.  SAB REMAINS AT 77 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT\r\nIS A COMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24\r\nHOURS.  AFTERWARD...CONTINUED WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION AS UPPER\r\nWESTERLIES GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS\r\nWITH THE RELATIVELY STABLE MARINE LAYER WHILE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN A MORE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS AS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS BASED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 19.2N 126.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 19.3N 127.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 18.0N 132.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 135.7W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N 139.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n\r\nFERNANDA HAS STEADILY MAINTAINED CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE CONSTRAINED\r\nTO 4.5 OR 77 KT. AFWA DATA T-NUMBERS ARE LOWER THAN THE OTHER\r\nCENTERS...BUT ALL AGREE THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD TO 70 KT UNTIL DAYLIGHT SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nGIVE US A BETTER PICTURE OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE QUITE SIMILAR. BEYOND 12 HOURS...\r\nFERNANDA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND DURING THE EXTENDED\r\nFORECAST PERIOD IT BECOMES A DEPRESSION. THE INTENSITY OUTLIER IS\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL WHICH WEAKENS FERNANDA TO 45 KT... BUT IN THE\r\nEXTENDED PERIOD IT RE-STRENGTHENS IT BACK TO A HURRICANE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE...\r\nSHIPS AND PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. AGAIN...THE INDIVIDUAL\r\nMODELS AND MODEL CONSENSUS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING FERNANDA TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED LOW TO\r\nMID LEVEL RIDGE. THIS IS THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 19.2N 127.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.2N 128.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.8N 129.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.3N 131.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N 133.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n\r\nFERNANDA CONTINUES TO BARELY MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. LATEST\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nWEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS FIX. ALSO...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE\r\nTECHNIQUE FROM AFWA IS 3.9 AND FROM TAFB IS 3.7 RESPECTIVELY.\r\nOBJECTIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nESTIMATE CLOSE TO 987 MB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS SYSTEM\r\nIS DECREASED TO 65 KT. IN ADDITION...WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nHAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A 1436Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. A BLEND OF THE\r\nFSSE...GFDL AND SHIPS YIELDS A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\nFERNANDA WILL WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR FERNANDA TO BECOME A DEPRESSION IN THE EXTENDED\r\nPERIOD. HOWEVER...GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY STAY\r\nABOVE 35-40 KT AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER SSTS. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE\r\nINTENSITY IN THE LATER PERIOD MAY BE NEEDED IF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES THIS TREND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS\r\nMOSTLY UNCHANGED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THEY\r\nDEPICT FERNANDA MOVING SOUTHWEST BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM AND A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHEAST.\r\nTHESE FEATURES ARE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS CONU AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 19.3N 127.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 19.1N 129.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.7N 130.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.7N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 137.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nLITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF FERNANDA...OTHER\r\nTHAN SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CORE.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH DEPICTED A BANDING\r\nEYE FEATURE...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT...BUT\r\nMORE THAN LIKELY WILL DECREASE ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  AMSU TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE INTENSITY/SIZE ESTIMATION DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD\r\nHAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nTO CONFORM TO THE MICROWAVE DATA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8...JUST SOUTH OF WEST.\r\nFERNANDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL WHICH NOW SHOWS A REDUCED MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.  \r\nNOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND THE GFDN ALL ARE INDICATING A WEAKER LOW/MID\r\nSTEERING CURRENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 19.1N 128.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.9N 129.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 131.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 17.9N 133.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N 134.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 16.4N 138.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS CONFIRMED THE EARLIER AMSU SIZE ESTIMATION DATA. THE\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER APPEAR TO BE FINALLY\r\nTAKING ITS TOLL ON FERNANDA. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 45 AND 55\r\nKT. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STATE OF AFFAIRS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH TO 55 KT. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/7. THE UKMET IS CONSIDERABLY\r\nFASTER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND DAY 3. INTERROGRATION OF\r\nTHE FIELDS REVEALS AN ERRONEOUS MERGING SCENARIO WITH A TROPICAL\r\nWAVE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALL OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 18.9N 129.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 130.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.9N 131.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 17.4N 133.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 134.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 16.4N 137.6W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE COULD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AND IN FACT...DESPITE THE COOL SSTS...FERNANDA\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE HAD RE-DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. EVERY AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT FERNANDA SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO THE EFFECT OF COOL WATERS IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO BUT IT SHOULD RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES AGAIN\r\nWARMER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN KEEPS THE INTENSITY STEADY.\r\n\r\nFERNANDA HAS BEEN FORCED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT\r\n8 KNOTS BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS SO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 18.5N 130.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 132.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.0N 147.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SHOWED 50 KT WIND\r\nSPEEDS IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.  ASSUMING THESE VALUES WERE\r\nATTENUATED BY RAIN...60 KT SEEMS A REASONABLE ESTIMATE FOR THE\r\nINTENSITY.  SINCE THE STORM IS MOVING SOUTH OF WEST AND LIKELY TO\r\nCONTINUE DOING SO FOR SOME TIME...IT WILL NOT ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER THE INCREASED\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS FIELD AHEAD OF FERNANDA SUGGESTS A MORE STABLE AIR\r\nMASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENING RATE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN\r\nSHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 240/8.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN PROVIDING THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL REGIME IS\r\nLIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE DONE USING THE QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 18.2N 130.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.7N 131.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 17.2N 133.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N 135.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.2N 136.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N 140.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 147.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nFERNANDA CONTINUES TO BE RESILIENT WITH A RECENT BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THIS\r\nTREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS ALSO A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT AND 55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE THE DEEPER CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...FERNANDA'S CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED\r\nAND HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS\r\nINDICATES THE WEAKENING TREND MAY RESUME WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS ESPECIALLY AS SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE TOMORROW.\r\nADDITIONALLY...A RECENT SSMI PASS INDICATED DRY AIR BEGINNING TO\r\nENTRAIN INTO FERNANDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...IMPLYING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THESE FACTORS\r\nSHOULD BE ENOUGH TO IMPART SLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH FERNANDA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM THROUGH THE\r\nFIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY  BASED ON THE\r\nRECENT DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE PATTEN AND THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nNEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. \r\n  \r\nFERNANDA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/08.  THIS OVERALL\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS OF\r\nTHE FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A DEEP\r\nSTRUCTURE...KEEPING IT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW. THEREAFTER...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nUNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT CYCLONE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY MODIFIED SLIGHTLY FROM THAT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 17.8N 131.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 133.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.4N 135.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.1N 136.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.7N 140.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 147.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 15/0526Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT\r\nTHAT THE EARLIER NOTED BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED. THE HARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nSURROUNDING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DRAMATICALLY WEAKENED THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN\r\nTHE STABLE MARINE AIR MASS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/8. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST AS A LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS\r\nSLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET IS AN\r\nOUTLIER TO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS\r\nDEEP LAYER BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE EXCEPT BEYOND DAY 3...WHICH NOW SUGGESTS A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS\r\nSHALLOW AND MID LAYER BAMS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 17.5N 132.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.6N 134.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.3N 135.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.0N 137.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.2N 141.3W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 14.0N 148.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE FURTHER DISSIPATION\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FERNANDA. A 0236 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS INDICATED 45 KNOT UNCONTAMINATED WINDS WHEN THE SYSTEM HAD\r\nMORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED\r\nSPINDOWN...WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40\r\nKT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE\r\nHARSH DRY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\nTHEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS\r\nENVIRONMENT. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 250/6. THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE \r\nUKMET AND THE DEEP LAYERED BAM REMAIN OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 17.2N 132.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.8N 133.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.4N 135.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 16.1N 137.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.8N 138.8W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 146.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FERNANDA IS A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE DATA T AND\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nTO 30 KT AND FERNANDA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VERY DRY \r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THIS ENVIRONMENT...\r\nWITH DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW THROUGH \r\n72 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT WEAKENING TRENDS...DISSIPATION MAY \r\nOCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER 255/8. THE \r\nMAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST AS A SURFACE/LOW\r\nLEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SLOWLY BUILDS\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN THE UKMET AND\r\nTHE DEEP LAYERED BAM ARE THE TWO OUTLIERS AND ARE CONSIDERABLY TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 17.0N 134.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 135.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 16.3N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-08-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FERNANDA REMAINS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR NEARLY 18\r\nHOURS. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 25 KT. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL\r\nADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AND FERNANDA IS CARRIED AS A REMNANT LOW\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT FERNANDA IS SHALLOW...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS ENSUED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  FERNANDA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTHWARD BASED ON THE PRESENT MOTION AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE BAMS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 17.2N 135.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.8N 138.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.6N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 143.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-11 11:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n4 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED QUICKLY INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHIS MORNING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 01Z CLEARLY SHOWED 3/4 OF A\r\nCIRCULATION.  A TRMM PASS AT 06Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER...WITH A BROADER BAND\r\nFARTHER OUT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT\r\n6Z WERE ONLY T1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB.  HOWEVER...SINCE THAT\r\nTIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY JUST OVER AND SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER...WHILE NIGHT-VIS IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH ROTATION TO\r\nCONCLUDE THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER EXISTS.  THE PRESENT PATTERN\r\nWAS ASSESSED TO BE T2.0 BY TAFB AT 9Z...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nINITIATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY ABOUT 650 NMI\r\nBEHIND FERNANDA...AND FERNANDA COULD HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE\r\nFUTURE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.  A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE IS LOCATED\r\nJUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THIS SHOULD TAKE THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT RUN.  THE MEDIUM BAM\r\nWAS FOLLOWED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.  THE GFS\r\nFORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS A FAIR BIT FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...SO I AM PRESUMING MORE OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nCYCLONES THAN INDICATED BY THE BAMM...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE DEPRESSION WELL TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nEITHER THE GFS OR THE BAM GUIDANCE.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS\r\nWERE DISCOUNTED BECAUSE OF INCONSISTENCY WITH CURRENT MOTION AND A\r\nPOOR INITIALIZATION...RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THAT THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS NO PARTICULAR OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT IT...IT IS\r\nA LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH OUTFLOW FROM\r\nFERNANDA...AND IF IT TAKES THE FORECAST PATH...WILL HAVE TO DEAL\r\nWITH COLD WATER WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THUS ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1100Z 13.2N 109.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 13.6N 111.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.2N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.3N 114.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 116.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-11 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A LOT SINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCENTER IS TO THE NORTH AND NEAR THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE\r\nTO SLIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF FERNANDA. BASED\r\nON A DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO 35 KNOTS AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN NAMED GREG.  SINCE\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT\r\nSTRENGHTENING...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT\r\n2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER\r\nWATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nGREG APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES\r\nAT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS THE AS INDICATED BY MODELS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA SHOULD INDUCE A LITTLE BIT OF \r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS TO\r\nRIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.     \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 13.6N 110.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.0N 112.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 124.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-11 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GREG CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE CURVED BAND SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND OUTFLOW PRIMARILY\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND\r\nARE BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nIT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT THAT THE CIRCULATION OF FERNANDA WAS GOING\r\nTO FORCE GREG TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT. HOWEVER...IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE RIDGE BEHIND FERNANDA IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP\r\nGREG ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AND SLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\n12Z OUTPUT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF GREG. IN FACT...THESE MODELS SHOW A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN A\r\nDAY OR SO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT.  THIS ALSO MEANS THAT GREG WILL STAY\r\nOVER WARM WATERS AND STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS IS\r\nINDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 13.8N 110.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.3N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 113.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 15.5N 114.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 116.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 118.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 11 2005\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 22Z NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER LOCATION... AND THIS CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS\r\nEVENING.  EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE RESTRICTION TO THE NORTHEAST... UPPER\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB... SO THE INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION... AS VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN EVEN\r\nMORE... AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GREG SHOULD REMAIN OVER SSTS\r\nEXCEEDING 27 CELSIUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nGREG HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST... 280/8... OBVIOUSLY UNAFFECTED BY\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA WHICH IS TOO FAR WEST TO INDUCE GREG TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH.  INSTEAD... GREG IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT SEEM TO HAVE A\r\nREASONABLE HANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION ARE THE GFDL AND GFS... SO\r\nTHESE MODELS ARE GIVEN FAR GREATER WEIGHT THAN THE OTHERS IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST.  EVEN THE GFDL AND GFS FORECAST A TRACK\r\nCONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH JUST OFF THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHESE MODELS BUT IS KEPT NORTH OF THEM FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 13.6N 111.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.8N 112.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N 114.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N 115.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 14.4N 115.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 117.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N 123.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nTHE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER HAS DIMINISHED...AND AN\r\nAMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0537Z SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GREG\r\nIS EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE REMAINS OF THE BURST.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/8...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE\r\nTHE AMSU IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  SO FAR...THE TRACK OF GREG IS NOT BEING\r\nAFFECTED BY ITS PROXIMITY TO HURRICANE FERNANDA...AS THERE SEEMS TO\r\nBE ENOUGH RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS TO ALLOW GREG TO STAY ON A\r\nWESTERLY TRACK.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTELY MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE\r\nNORTHERLY NOGAPS AND THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACAKAGE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFDL...GUNS...AND CONU.\r\n\r\nSOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED OVER GREG...\r\nWHICH FOR THE MOMENT HAS DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  THIS\r\nSHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME AND ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL\r\nRE-ORGANIZE AROUND THE CENTER...WITH GREG REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24-48 HR.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GREG\r\nSHOULD BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...\r\nWHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 13.7N 112.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.8N 113.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.0N 114.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.2N 115.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 14.3N 116.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS\r\nAFFECTED GREG. THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS NOW LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A NEW CELL\r\nIS REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED\r\nTO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE SHIPS MODEL NO LONGER INTENSIFIES\r\nGREG TO HURRICANE STATUS BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS WARM...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO RELAX AND THE GFDL DOES SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHEREFORE...GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO.\r\n\r\nAT THE MOMENT STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND GREG IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK EASTERLY STEERING CURRENTS WHICH ARE\r\nFORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. GREG SHOULD\r\nTHEN CONTINUE ON ITS SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS SLOW\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 14.3N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.3N 114.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N 116.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N 117.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N 125.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-08-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF GREG. THE CENTER IS\r\nQUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN SINCE CENTER FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nDIFFER BY 4 TENTHS OF A DEGREE IN THE NORTH-SOUTH DIRECTION. BASED\r\nON PREVIOUS SPEED AND DIRECTION OF THE SYSTEM... AND FURTHER\r\nSUPPORTED BY MICROWAVE FIXES... THE OFFICIAL POSITION TENDS TOWARD\r\nTHE SAB POSITION. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL CENTERS ARE ALSO\r\nMIXED...BUT GENERALLY SUPPORT A 40 KT INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTAINS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND 50 KT\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GFDL AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MAKE\r\nGREG A HURRICANE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES MAKE GREG A HURRICANE BEYOND 36 HOURS... BUT\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN FUTURE\r\nADVISORIES AS GREG STRUGGLES IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME MORE WESTWARD IN TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF CONTINUITY AND THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL. THE GFS VORTEX TRACKER\r\nFROM THE 12Z RUN TAKES A HUGE SOUTH AND EAST TURNAROUND... AN\r\nUNREALISTIC RADICAL SOLUTION. CONSEQUENTLY... A LOWER CONFIDENCE IS\r\nPLACED ON THE CONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH UTILIZE THE GFS\r\nTRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK MOVES GREG IN A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE GUNS CONSENSUS... WHICH\r\nCONSISTS OF THE GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS TRACKS.    \r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 14.5N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.6N 114.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.6N 115.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.7N 117.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 119.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-08-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 12 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER OF GREG HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION. UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-CIMSS WIND SHEAR\r\nPRODUCT DEPICTS A SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTI-CYCLONE SITUATED OVER\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA GENERATING 20 TO 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ALONG\r\nGREG'S PATH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR\r\nIS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW. CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDISPLACED CONVECTION HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS AS WELL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM\r\nAFWA AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PUZZLING. THE GFDL IS THE\r\nONLY MODEL THAT STRENGTHENS GREG TO A HURRICANE...IN 48 HOURS. THE\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE NOW INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...TO 60 KT IN 48 HOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO\r\nSUGGEST TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THROUGH DAY 5. SHIPS DOES INDICATE\r\nLIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nBEFORE BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nLESS GENEROUS THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GRADUALLY INCREASING\r\nGREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 2....MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THIS IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5. LOW-MID LEVEL EASTERLY\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL...WHICH\r\nINCLUDES THE UKMET/NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE ERRONEOUS BINARY INTERACTION WITH ANOTHER LOW TO THE EAST\r\nOF GREG.  THEREFORE...CONU AND THE GUNA WHICH INCLUDE THE GFS WERE\r\nNOT FACTORED INTO THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 14.6N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.6N 114.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N 114.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.3N 115.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 14.1N 116.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 14.1N 119.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 14.0N 122.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-08-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG REMAINS EXPOSED NORTH\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FEW INFRARED SHORTWAVE\r\nIMAGES DEPICT A DEVELOPING BANDING FEATURE ABOUT 30 NM TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nHAMPERING DEVELOPMENT MAY BE STARTING TO WEAKEN SOME. AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 35 KT VECTORS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 35\r\nKT EVEN THOUGH THE DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT. THE 34 KT\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE TO CONFORM\r\nTO THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...GRADUALLY INCREASING GREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY\r\n2....THEN MAINTAINING 65 KT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND\r\nSHIPS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6. OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  AFTERWARDS...THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE BETWEEN\r\nHURRICANE FERNANDA AND GREG SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING\r\nMECHANISM CREATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THE GUNS CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 15.1N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.3N 114.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 15.2N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.7N 116.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 14.2N 119.8W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 123.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 125.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-08-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY OF GREG SHOW AN INTERMITTENTLY\r\nEXPOSED CENTER AND FLARE UPS OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nQUADRANT. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM AND GREG\r\nCONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 RESPECTIVELY GIVING AN\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT... WHILE AFWA ESTIMATES ARE SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER. THE INTENSITY FOR GREG REMAINS AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES DEVIATE SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS. THE\r\nSHORT TERM TREND HOLDS GREG AT 35 KT AND SLOWLY WORKS THE INTENSITY\r\nUP TO 60 KT BY 72 HOURS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS. HOWEVER...\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS SHIPS KEEPS GREG AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nWHILE THE GFDL INCREASES GREG TO A HURRICANE AT 48 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH BY\r\nKEEPING GREG AS A TROPICAL STORM IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND NUDGING IT TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.\r\nTHIS FORECAST MOSTLY FOLLOWS SHIPS... HOWEVER IT DOES TAKE INTO\r\nACCOUNT THE GFDL SOLUTION LATER ON IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/3. GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED...THE SHORT TERM MOTION WILL CONTINUE A SLOW\r\nMOVEMENT IN THE NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION... AND IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE SHALLOW BETA ADVECTION MODEL. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE QUICKLY\r\nMOVES GREG TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE SHORT TERM WHICH GIVEN ITS\r\nPRESENT MOTION MAY BE UNLIKELY. CONSEQUENTLY... THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nLEANS MORE TOWARD THE BAMS AND SLOWLY TRENDS BACK TOWARD THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS LATER ON IN THE FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 15.4N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 15.4N 115.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 118.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 123.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N 126.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-08-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY OF GREG STILL SHOWS A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN QUADRANT AS NORTHERLY SHEAR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM. THE\r\nCENTER WAS FULLY EXPOSED...BUT THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nINTERMITTENTLY FLARE UP NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB ARE 2.5 AND FROM SAB ARE 2.0 SO THE SYSTEM IS A\r\nBORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM. A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE DOES HAVE 35 KT WINDS...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND\r\nRADII WERE ALSO ADJUSTED BASED ON THIS SAME QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nINFORMATION.\r\n\r\nTHE SHORT TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS GREG AT 35 KT AND SLOWLY\r\nWORKS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT BY 72 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE FSSE AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nGFDL DEPICTS A MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSITY SCENARIO BY DEVELOPING\r\nGREG TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HRS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE MEANTIME. BY THE EXTENDED FORECAST\r\nPERIOD... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES BRING GREG TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BEYOND 96 HRS...THIS IS CONSERVATIVE APPROACH COMPARED TO\r\nTHE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVES GREG SOUTHWESTWARD. THE GFS IS THE SOUTHERN\r\nMOST OUTLIER IN THE GROUP. BEYOND 36 HRS...THE TRACK TURNS WEST AND\r\nREMAINS SO UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONU...GUNS AND GUNA. THE\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS EARLY IN THE FORECAST YIELD A BIT OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY BUT A GENERAL LONG TERM WEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 15.5N 114.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 15.3N 115.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 14.0N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 14.0N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 125.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 127.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-08-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 13 2005\r\n \r\nA 14/0151Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP BURST OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST\r\nTHAT GREG WILL BE STEERED INCREASINGLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN\r\nTHE MID LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES. BEYOND DAY 3...THERE IS A SPLIT IN THE MODELS WITH THE\r\nECMWF/GFDL/GFS AND UKMET INDICATING A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nINTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE SECOND CLUSTER...NOGAPS/GFDN...AND\r\nTHE GFS BETA ADVECTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE AMPLITUDE OF THE\r\nTROUGH WILL NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nSCENARIOS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT SLOWER AFTER DAY\r\n3 TO HEDGE TOWARD THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 15.3N 115.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.1N 116.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N 117.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.3N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 14.2N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 14.3N 122.6W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 125.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 127.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-08-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nA 14/0447Z TRMM OVERPASS HAS HELPED IMMENSELY IN LOCATING THE\r\nEXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE TRMM IMAGE AND A 14/0123Z QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS SUPPORT THE INITIAL MOTION.  THE QUIKSCAT DATA WAS ALSO USED\r\nTO ADJUST THE WIND RADII.  MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES\r\nTO HINDER DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSHEAR WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE\r\nNOT CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THEREFORE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT.  THE GFDL BRINGS GREG TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...EARLIER GFDL RUN INTENSITY\r\nVERIFICATION INDICATES A HIGH BIAS IN THE MODEL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AGAIN WILL BE BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nMODELS...FOLLOWING THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/5.  TROPICAL STORM GREG SHOULD CONTINUE ON\r\nA GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE BUILDING MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE GFS AND THE\r\nCANADIAN ARE SOUTHERN OUTLIERS...ERRONEOUSLY MERGING GREG WITH A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE WELL TO THE EAST.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS A VERY STRONG\r\nRIDGE...DRIVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nBEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY INTO THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A NOGAPS...GFDL AND UKMET BLEND. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 15.2N 116.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N 116.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 14.6N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 14.3N 119.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 14.3N 120.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 14.0N 127.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 14.0N 130.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-08-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CONVECTION. BECAUSE\r\nTHE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME DISORGANIZED THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT WITH PLENTY OF WARM WATER...ONLY\r\nSMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR WILL RESULT IN RE-STRENGTHENING. THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SINCE BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSIFY GREG.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEADERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...AS\r\nTHE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...GREG SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nTHIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF TE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 14.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 118.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 128.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 130.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-08-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A PORTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF GREG IS GRADUALLY BEING PULLED EASTWARD BY A MUCH\r\nLARGER CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL CONVECTION WEST OF THE CENTER AND A WELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY\r\nCURVED BAND. THE CURRENT DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nSUGGESTS THAT GREG HAS WEAKENED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GREG HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. SINCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SHALLOW AND THE DOMINANT STEERING APPEARS TO\r\nBE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER GYRE TO THE\r\nEAST....THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS SHOW LITTLE MOTION AND NO\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE\r\nTHE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION OVER WARM WATER...A\r\nREFORMATION OR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION. IN FACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 14.3N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-08-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 14 2005\r\n \r\nGREG REMAINS COMPLETELY SHEARED ABOUT 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nNEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS FROM A\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IS STREAMING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE...\r\nAND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT 200 MB EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO\r\nINCREASE OVER GREG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW KEEPS THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY AS FORECAST...THIS\r\nWOULD REPRESENT MORE THAN ENOUGH SHEAR TO KILL GREG OFF.\r\nHOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT\r\nREINTENSIFICATION...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS GUIDANCE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW DISSIPATION AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  VIRTUALLY ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE 12Z ECMWF...WHICH MEANDERS GREG\r\nFOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE PULLING IT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE\r\nBACK OF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE WESTWARD OPTION MAKES\r\nSENSE IF GREG SHOULD RE-DEVELOP DEEP CONVECTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH SHOWS NO NET MOTION DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...ASSUMES THAT GREG WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND\r\nQUALITATIVELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF SCENARIO.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...IT\r\nIS UNLIKELY THAT GREG WILL IN FACT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR LONGER THAN A DAY OR SO.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 14.4N 115.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-08-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nGOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY... AND A 0226Z SSMI OVERPASS...\r\nCONTINUE TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE NEAREST\r\nCONVECTION... WHICH IS EXTREMELY LIMITED... IS ABOUT 50 N MI TO THE\r\nWEST... SO EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT... AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nPERHAPS IN PART BECAUSE IT IS BEING DRAGGED ALONG BY THE CONVECTION\r\nTO ITS WEST... THE CENTER OF GREG APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A VERY\r\nSLOW WESTWARD MOTION... ESTIMATED AT 270/2. THE FORECAST SOLUTIONS\r\nFROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP...\r\nLITERALLY... BUT AT LEAST THEY ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nDRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION INTO A\r\nHURRICANE. THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION... APPARENTLY DUE TO JUST ENOUGH NARROW LOW-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nINDICATE VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD... WHICH IS NOT AS FAST OR AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS THE\r\nMODELS. DUE TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION... AND\r\nSINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... NO\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED... DESPITE THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL\r\nFORECAST. IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS ARE LOW CONFIDENCE... ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEPRESSION\r\nMIGHT NOT EVEN SURVIVE MUCH LONGER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 14.4N 115.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 14.2N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.7N 118.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 13.5N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 13.5N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 13.5N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-08-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nGOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN EXPOSED LOW-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION ABOUT 40-45 NM\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. EASTERLY SHEAR MAINTAINS ITS\r\nGRIP ON THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\n30 KT...AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. DUE TO THE CURRENT\r\nDISORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO RELAX...NO INTENSITY CHANGE IS INDICATED...DESPITE THE\r\nAGGRESSIVE GFDL AND OPTIMISTIC SHIPS FORECASTS. \r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS OSCILLATED BETWEEN SOUTHWEST\r\nAND WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH A MEAN INITIAL MOTION OF 245/4. THE\r\nFORECAST SOLUTIONS FROM THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ARE UNANIMOUS IN\r\nFORECASTING A GENERAL WESTWARD TREND. THE MODELS DIVERGE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 72 HOURS WITH THE NOGAPS/UKMET AND THE\r\nGUNS...GUNA AND CONU DYNAMICAL CONCENSUS FORECASTING A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL FORECASTS A SLOW WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT AS A STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM FOR THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS...FOLLOWED BY AN ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.\r\nTHE GFS IS FORECASTING A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nSOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO POOR\r\nINITIALIZATION.  THEREFORE THAT MODEL'S TRACK...WHICH MOVES GREG IN\r\nA CLOCKWISE LOOP...DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND INDICATES A VERY SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 14.0N 116.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.7N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.4N 117.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 12.7N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 12.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 12.5N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 12.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-08-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2005\r\n \r\nA 1342 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED ONLY 15-20 KT WINDS IN THE\r\nRAIN-FREE AREAS OF THE CIRCULATION OF GREG. IN ADDITION VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY SPARSE AND\r\nSTILL UNDERGOING STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...ALL SIGNS THAT GREG IS IN\r\nTHE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nGREG UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. GREG WILL BE CARRIED AS A REMNANT\r\nLOW THROUGH 48 HOURS IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN 245/4. GREG IS \r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 5 KNOTS OR SO OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF GREG CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03\r\nKNHC.   \r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 13.8N 116.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.6N 117.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.1N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 12.7N 119.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 12.3N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nSOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION\r\nAND CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SINCE\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND\r\nTHE PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND WILL LIKELY\r\nFORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT\r\n5 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT THE GFDL AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS AND\r\nCLIMATOLOGY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. THE LATTER MAKES THE\r\nDEPRESSION A POWERFUL 100-KT HURRICANE. BY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE NEARING COOLER WATERS...SO THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD\r\nLEVEL OFF.  \r\n\r\nSOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.   \r\n  \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 13.2N  95.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 13.8N  97.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 14.5N  99.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 101.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 103.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 107.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING\r\nAND CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS BUT\r\nDEVOID OF AN INNER CONVECTIVE CORE. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER\r\nWARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE\r\nNEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED\r\nAND THE DEPRESSION COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING\r\nCOOLER WATERS BY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE PRESENCE OF VARIOUS SMALL CIRCULATION CENTERS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A MUCH LARGER GYRE...IT IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND A WELL ESTABLISHED\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS\r\nMEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BUT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE\r\nON ITS WESTERN PORTION AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES BY THE AREA. THIS\r\nWOULD RESULT ON A TRACK A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. MOST OF THE\r\nRELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nSOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 13.6N  97.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 14.0N 100.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 14.5N 102.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 30 KT AT 0000Z. \r\nSINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT-E HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING AROUND THE CENTER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A\r\nCLUSTER SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THERE IS ALSO A WARM SPOT IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH AT THIS STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT IT\r\nIS TOO EARLY TO CALL THIS AN EYE.  BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HILARY WITH 35 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nHILARY IS MOVING BETWEEN 280-285 DEGREES AT 13-14 KT ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR\r\n48-72 HR...THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS. \r\nTHIS TROUGH SHOULD HILARY TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR POSSIBLY EVEN\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF TRACK MODELS\r\nDURING THIS TIME.  AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN IN RESPONSE TO THE CALIFORNIA TROUGH.  THE 120\r\nHR POSITION IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD GFS AND THE\r\nMORE EASTWARD UKMET AND ECMWF.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE\r\nSTORM IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS CALL FOR HILARY TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO REFLECT THIS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM\r\nWATER FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY MOTION OVER COLDER WATER AND\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.  WHILE THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 80 KT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL...AN\r\nEXPERIMENTAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 70%\r\nCHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HR. \r\nSHOULD THIS OCCUR...HILARY COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON A STRONGER\r\nSYSTEM...CLIMATOLOGY...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOWING A LARGE\r\nENVELOPE ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY.  SOME RAINBANDS WITH GUSTY WINDS\r\nCOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 13.7N  98.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.0N 100.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.5N 103.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 15.4N 106.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS WITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES AND A SMALL CDO-LIKED FEATURE\r\n...WITH TOPS TO -80C AND COLDER...DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 40 KT BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...\r\n35 KT...AND 25 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND\r\nTHE SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE THAT HAS FORMED SINCE 0615Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...BASED ON MICROWAVE POSITION\r\nESTIMATES DURING THE PAST 5 HOURS. THIS MOTION AND INITIAL POSITION\r\nARE A LITTLE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACKS AND POSITIONS.\r\nOTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACKS OR REASONINGS. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO TRACK AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS MEXICO. THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO COULD BE MORE WESTWARD...BUT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE 24-72H PERIOD...AND THEN\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD AT SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER THAT AS A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND\r\nERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HILARY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 10-15 KT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. USUALLY SUCH\r\nMODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO RAPID STRENGTHENING\r\n...BUT A NORMAL INTENSIFICATION RATE OF 20 KT PER 24 HOURS SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE HIGH SSTS AND VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT HIGHER THAN THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH ONLY BRINGS HILARY UP TO 70 KT IN 84 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL\r\nAFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO\r\nESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 13.7N 100.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.0N 102.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.6N 105.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 107.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.4N 109.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N 113.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 19.5N 115.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W    60 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005\r\n \r\nHILARY APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT AT A FAIRLY RAPID\r\nPACE. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED BENEATH AN\r\nEXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C... AND THE\r\nMODERATE TO WEAK NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR SEEMS TO BE GIVING WAY TO\r\nOUTFLOW FROM THE CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB... AND RECENT ODT ESTIMATES... HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT...\r\nWHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY... AND HILARY MIGHT\r\nHAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING. LITTLE\r\nSEEMS TO STAND IN THE WAY OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION... WITH THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK... AND THE OCEAN\r\nIS MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH. COMBINING THESE FORECAST CONDITIONS WITH\r\nTHE RECENT INTENSITY TREND... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS... GFDL... AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALL FOR 90 KT BY 48 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN HILARY SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nLACKING ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO REFINE THE POSITION OF THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER... THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY AND ON FOLLOWING THE CENTROID OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/16. HILARY IS BEING STEERED\r\nWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT AND EXPAND WESTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER... A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF MEXICO AS A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH\r\nDEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE\r\nSHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND IN THE TRACK OF HILARY TO THE RIGHT...\r\nEVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS... WHICH HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD COMPARED TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... MAINLY DUE TO THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTIONS\r\nPROVIDED BY THE GFS AND GFDL.\r\n \r\nRAINBANDS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD\r\nAFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO\r\nESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 13.9N 102.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 14.3N 104.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.1N 106.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 15.9N 109.1W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.9N 111.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN THINNED OUT A LITTLE LATE THIS\r\nMORNING... BUT BURSTS CONTINUE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND\r\nIMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES REMAIN... ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nAND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE UNCHANGED AT 55 KT... AS IS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELLED OFF SINCE THIS MORNING... THE\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR... AND SSTS GREATER THAN 29C... ARE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING TO RESUME SOON AND TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND THE INTERPOLATED GFDL GUIDANCE BOTH\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND REMAIN CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS APPEARED TO BE MOVING JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND LITTLE LESS QUICKLY... AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/14. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT MOTION SHOULD\r\nGENERALLY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HILARY REMAINS SOUTH\r\nOF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THEREAFTER... THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT HILARY WILL GRADUALLY SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND LATER THE NORTHWEST...\r\nINTO AN EVENTUAL WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER... THERE IS\r\nSIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW MUCH HILARY\r\nWILL TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NOGAPS AND GFDN FORECAST A\r\nDUE NORTH MOTION TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA... BUT THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nSHOW MUCH LESS OF A TURN AND INSTEAD A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE... THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN BETWEEN... CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nRAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nFROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 14.4N 103.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 14.8N 105.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.4N 107.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 16.1N 110.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 112.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 115.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-08-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2005\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHERE IS A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH\r\nWELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED\r\nPRIMARILY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE\r\nSUGGESTING THAT HILARY HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. LATEST AMSU ESTIMATE\r\nFROM CIRA/NESDIS ALSO SUPPORTS HURRICANE INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS\r\nWARM...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HILARY TO 90 KNOTS...THE HURRICANE COULD\r\nINTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD\r\nBE NEARING COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. \r\n\r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS\r\nAROUND A RATHER STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE UNITED\r\nSTATES WESTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. THE RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ERODED ON\r\nITS WESTERN PORTION AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED SATES. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK\r\nENVELOPE. THE UK AND THE NOGAPS MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERNMOST TRACK\r\nBUT THEY ALL KEEP THE HURRICANE AWAY FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. ONLY THE\r\nGFDN...WHICH IS THE BASICALLY THE GFDL USING THE NOGAPS MODEL AS A\r\nBACKGROUND...TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD OVER BAJA. \r\n\r\nRAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nFROM PUERTO ESCONDIDO WESTWARD. A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE COAST AND JUST NORTH OF HILARY REPORTED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLIER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 14.5N 104.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 112.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-08-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005\r\n\r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE IS SLOWLY INCREASING...WITH A VERY\r\nCOLD CDO ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT ON\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER\r\nPATTERN WITH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE...WERE 77 AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.  HILARY HAS\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WHICH IS\r\nINDICATIVE OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWIND FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THIS SHEAR WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  SOME OF THE PARAMETERS SHOWN TO BE IMPORTANT IN\r\nTHE STATISTICAL SCHEME FOR FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION...SUCH AS AN ABUNDANCE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND HIGH\r\nRELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERE... ARE PRESENT. \r\nCURIOUSLY... HOWEVER...THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF A\r\nLITTLE ON ITS INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES FROM SSM/I...AMSU...AND WINDSAT...HAVE BEEN HELPFUL\r\nIN LOCATING THE CENTER.  USING THESE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE...280/11...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH THAT DROPS INTO CALIFORNIA.  IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENT...HILARY IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND SLOW LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nHAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT 4-5 DAYS IN COMPARISON TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE TRACK. \r\n\r\nRAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nWEST OF ACAPULCO.  CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS\r\nHILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 14.6N 105.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.2N 107.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 15.9N 109.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 16.7N 112.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 114.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-08-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005\r\n \r\nTWO MICROWAVE PASSES...A TRMM PASS AT 0950Z AND AN AQUA PASS AT\r\n0907Z...SUGGEST THAT HILARY MAY NOT BE QUIRE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS\r\nIT WAS OVERNIGHT.  THE TRMM PASS IN PARTICULAR SHOWS AN EROSION OF\r\nTHE BANDING OR EYEWALL-LOOKING FEATURE WITH A CENTER NORTH OF OUR\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH ARE UNCHANGED FROM\r\n6 HOURS AGO...ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO QUESTIONS ABOUR THE CENTER\r\nLOCATION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT PENDING VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY...AND HOPEFULLY SOME MORE CLARITY ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. HILARY IS MAINTAINING VERY COLD CONVECTION AT THIS\r\nTIME AND HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE OF MOISTURE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BEFORE HILARY\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH A FASTER DECAY OVER THE\r\nCOLD WATER...MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE PRIOR\r\nTRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11.  HILARY IS SOUTH\r\nOF A MINOR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT WILL SHORTLY\r\nBYPASS THIS WEAKNESS.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF HILARY AND STILL APPEARS TO BE INCONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE PRESENT ESTIMATE OF 11 KT.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A TEMPORARY INCREASE IN\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE MOTION\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IS ALSO SOMEWHAT ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF A\r\nFAIRLY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  \r\n \r\nRAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nWEST OF ACAPULCO.  CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS\r\nHILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 15.6N 106.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.4N 107.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.3N 110.4W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 18.1N 112.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 21.0N 118.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-08-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE PASSES CONFIRMED THAT\r\nHILARY INDEED HAD MOVED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nEXPECTED...ALONG A RAPID CYCLONICALLY CURVED ARC THAT ALREADY\r\nAPPEARS TO BE BENDING BACK TO THE LEFT AND SLOWING.  THE OVERALL\r\nMOTION OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS IS 295/13.  HILARY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO...WHEN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AS TO HOW\r\nHILARY WILL RESPOND TO THIS TROUGH...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nTURNING HILARY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.  IN CONTRAST...THE\r\nGFDL AND GFS SHOW LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN HILARY AND THE\r\nTROUGH...AND INDEED TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST AFTER 96\r\nHOURS.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS.  SAVE FOR A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ON THE UKMET/NOGAPS SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL BALL OF -80C\r\nCONVECTION...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS NEAR THE CORE IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT AND ADDITIONAL BANDS FARTHER OUT BOTH TO THE NORTH AND\r\nSOUTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOT\r\nCLOSE...90 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST OBJECTIVE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS ABOUT 80 KT...T4.7...WHILE \r\nAMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  GIVEN\r\nALL THE ABOVE...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO RAISE THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY A LITTLE...TO 75 KT.  ONLY MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nAPPARENT IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND HILARY SHOULD\r\nHAVE AT LEAST 36 HOURS OVER WARM WATER.  THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...SHIPS APPEARS TO\r\nDECAY THE CYCLONE TOO SLOWLY OVER THE COLD WATER...WHERE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nRAINBANDS PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nNEAR MANZANILLO.  CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE AS\r\nHILARY MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 16.6N 107.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-08-21 22:30:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n330 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING TRANSMITTED TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND TO EXPAND\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII.  REPORTS FROM MANZANILLO\r\nMEXICO WITHIN THE PAST HOUR INDICATE SUSTAINED 35 KT WINDS ARE\r\nREACHING THE COAST WITHIN AN OUTER BAND OF HURRICANE HILARY... AND\r\nTWO SHIPS JUST OFFSHORE OF MANZANILLO HAVE REPORTED TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS WITHIN THE PAST 90 MINUTES.  THE TRACK AND INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2230Z 16.9N 108.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.4N 109.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 18.4N 111.9W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N 114.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-08-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE BANDING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAD BEEN A LITTLE THIN THIS\r\nAFTERNOON... BUT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED THIS\r\nEVENING WITHIN A 100 NM DIAMETER CDO.  AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE COME UP... WITH 75 KT AND 978 MB FROM CIMSS AT 2130Z... WHICH\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MORE RECENTLY... 00Z\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE UP TO T5.0...\r\nWHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 90 KT.  HILARY\r\nIS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 29C AND WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS... BUT NOT LESS THAN 26C UNTIL BEYOND 36 HOURS... ALL\r\nWITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT APPEARS WEAK\r\nENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR\r\nHILARY TO SOON REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS... WITH A MORE ACCELERATED DECLINE LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BUT A LITTLE MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/16... AVERAGING OVER THE\r\nLAST 12 HOURS THROUGH SOME SMALL WOBBLES.  ALL OF THE MODELS NOW\r\nAGREE THAT THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH... THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WILL ONLY\r\nSERVE TO SLOW HILARY DOWN AND NOT CAUSE IT TO RECURVE.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING HOW FAST\r\nHILARY WILL MOVE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND GFDL.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS... AND IT ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL\r\nMOTION.  THIS FORECAST TAKES A MUCH WEAKENED HILARY WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 17.7N 109.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.6N 110.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.5N 113.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 20.6N 116.3W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 118.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-08-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY HAS FORMED A POORLY\r\nDEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS FORMATION HAS BEEN\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYE...SO THAT\r\nTHE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT. \r\nTHAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS\r\nGOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/16.  HILARY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE\r\nPACIFIC.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL FORM IN\r\nTHE RIDGE NORTH OF HILARY AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS\r\nCALIFORNIA IN 24-48 HR.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE\r\nTROUGH WILL NOT EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO TURN HILARY TO THE\r\nNORTH...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE CALLING FOR A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nHILARY PASSES SOUTH OF THE WEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR HILARY TO CONTINUE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION UNDER A RIDGE\r\nWEST OF THE WEAKNESS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN A WESTWARD BEND OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SOMEWHAT TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE OF HILARY ARE STARTING TO\r\nCOOL...ALTHOUGH AT THIS TIME THEY ARE STILL 28C-29C.  THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE FAVORABLE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HR FOLLOWED BY A\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...ALTHOUGH IT IS WEAKER THAN SHIPS BY 96-120 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 18.1N 110.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.9N 112.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 20.2N 116.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.6N 117.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 120.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 126.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-08-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT.  FOR A\r\nFEW HOURS IR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLEAR EYE BUT THE PRESENTATION HAS\r\nDEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  A MICROWAVE IMAGE AT\r\n8Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL NEARLY ENCIRCLED BY AN OUTER\r\nRAINBAND/EYEWALL.  IT IS LIKELY THAT HILARY HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY\r\nBUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE HILARY REACHES COOLER WATERS.  BY\r\n36 HOURS HILARY WILL HAVE CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...AND THE\r\nINEVITABLE DECAY BLENDS THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST THINKING.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT HILARY\r\nWILL SLOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY DEFLECTED NORTHWARD. \r\nA GRADUAL WESTWARD BEND IS EXPECTED AFTER HILARY PASSES THIS\r\nWEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nHILARY HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION...AND THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE\r\nBEEN EXPANDED FURTHER BASED ON SHIP REPORTS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 18.6N 112.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.3N 113.9W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 115.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 20.4N 117.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 20.7N 118.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 128.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-08-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n\r\nHILARY APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING\r\nFEATURES...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...PARTICULARLY IN THE\r\nINNER CORE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY\r\nTHE MEAN OF THE DVORAK T NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS....BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST DUE TO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER OCEAN WATERS AND A STABILIZING\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS AND GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.  HILARY COULD\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAS WAS NOTED IN THE DISCUSSION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF HILARY WAS EXPECTED TO SLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO\r\nA WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. \r\nTHIS SLOWING HAS OCCURRED A LITTLE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED...AND\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  A FURTHER DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  A TURN TO THE WEST IS SHOWN\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A\r\nBUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST DAY OR TWO AND\r\nMORE OR LESS THE SAME THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 18.7N 112.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.2N 114.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.8N 116.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.3N 117.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 129.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-08-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND NOTED ON THE LAST ADVISORY CONTINUES WITH THE\r\nCENTRAL CORE OF THE HURRICANE STILL LACKING SIGNIFICANT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 80 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT AND A TRACK ACROSS COOLER WATERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF HILARY AND THE\r\nSTORM MAY BEGIN ENTRAINING SOME OF THIS AIR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS WITH\r\nSTEADIER WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME AS HILARY IS EXPECTED TO CROSS\r\nOVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN\r\nWEAKENING THE CYCLONE AS THE GFDL. HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nDISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF HILARY HAS SLOWED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...295/9. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING\r\nOF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. A SLIGHT\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AND A\r\nMUCH WEAKER HILARY SHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE GIVEN THE\r\nSAME GENERAL REASONING. \r\n \r\nBOTH THE 34 KT WIND AND 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE SE\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT FROM SHIP WITH CALL SIGN\r\nMHCO7.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/KNABB\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 19.1N 113.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.6N 115.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 20.2N 116.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 119.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 126.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-08-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER 0418Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A 30 NM RAGGED EYE WITH AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN QUADRANT.\r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION REVEALS THAT THE WHITE BAND\r\nHAS NOW ROTATED CYCLONICALLY TO THE SOUTH QUADRANT. NO CHANGES TO\r\nTHE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRYER AIR\r\nMASS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL...WITH DISSIPATION COMMENCING IN 96 HOURS...DEGENERATING\r\nFURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS HILARY\r\nMOVES SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST\r\nIS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING LOW/MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE CONU\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 19.4N 114.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N 115.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 20.7N 117.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 21.6N 118.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 23.5N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-08-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO HAVE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER WITH A FEW CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS AND A BANDING TYPE EYE. \r\nT-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 70 KNOTS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOW SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE COMPLETELY OVER COOL WATERS IN\r\nA DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n9 KNOTS AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE DURING THEN NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE \r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 19.8N 115.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N 116.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 23.5N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-08-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SIZE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nSHRINKING AND CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP. HOWEVER...VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A RAGGED EYE AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT\r\n70-KNOT WINDS. HILARY IS ALREADY NEARING LOWER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE CYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nHILARY IS MOVING TOWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO EXPAND\r\nWESTWARD. THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOME SHALLOW IT WILL LIKELY TO BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 20.2N 116.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.9N 117.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.7N 119.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 24.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 24.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-08-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2005\r\n \r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE. IN\r\nADDITION SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HILARY IS WRAPPING DRY\r\nSTABLE AIR AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE IN THE CIRCULATION BENEATH THE\r\nOUTFLOW LAYER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA AVERAGE\r\n4.0...65 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nHILARY IS CROSSING SUB 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE ENTIRE\r\nCYCLONE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH \r\nIS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nHILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS\r\nAROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nEXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HILARY ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/KNABB\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 20.5N 116.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.1N 117.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.9N 119.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 120.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-08-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n\r\nA 0403Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE\r\nFEATURE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE BAND NOW RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALSO REVEALS STABLE/DRYER AIR\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...DEGENERATING FURTHER TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 21.1N 117.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 21.8N 118.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.6N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 23.3N 121.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.8N 123.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 24.1N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 24.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-08-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n\r\nHILARY IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SO THAT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 4.0/4.0...I.E.\r\n65 KNOTS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  WITHIN 24 HOURS THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING 22-23 DEG C WATERS...SO A MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE SOON.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION ENVELOPE...IT MAY TAKE MORE TIME THAN USUAL FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND QUITE CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 300/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  A MODEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF HILARY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW...A MORE WESTWARD COURSE...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY\r\nTRADEWINDS...IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 21.6N 118.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 22.2N 119.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.1N 124.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 24.5N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-08-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n \r\nTHE COLD WATER IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL ON HILARY.  THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND BEGINNING TO SEPARATE FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON\r\nAN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS.  NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nDECOUPLING FROM THE CONVECTION...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING TREND\r\nSHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nHILARY IS MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 330/7.  RECENT RUNS OF THE GFDL CAPTURED THIS\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION BETTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE AND I HAVE\r\nEDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  AS HILARY WEAKENS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL\r\nTURN BACK TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF HILARY. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 22.2N 117.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.9N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.9N 119.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.8N 121.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.4N 123.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-08-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED AUG 24 2005\r\n \r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING. THE MID LEVEL CENTER\r\nCONSISTS OF RAGGED AREAS OF WEAKENING CONVECTION WHICH HAS\r\nDECOUPLED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND\r\nCI NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA WARRANTS BRINGING DOWN THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS DECOUPLED FROM THE MEAGER CONVECTION...RAPID WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHILARY IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 315/8. THE FORECAST TRACK IS \r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH NORTHWEST MOTION FOR 24-36\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS HILARY WEAKENS TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW. THIS IS AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS AND GUNA CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 23.0N 118.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 23.7N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 24.6N 121.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 26.0N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-08-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHE POORLY DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HILARY HAS\r\nBECOME RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  \r\nFORTUNATELY...A TIMELY 0543Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS PROVED TO BE\r\nBENEFICIAL IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS\r\nCONTINUE TO DROP...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING TREND...WITH\r\nDISSIPATION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 48 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AFTERWARDS WITHIN THE LOW\r\nTO MID LEVEL FLOW OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 23.3N 119.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N 120.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.8N 122.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N 124.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 25.7N 126.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-08-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ALMOST ENTIRELY ON CONTINUITY...AS THE\r\nCENTER IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE IN INFRARED OR NIGHT-VIS\r\nIMAGERY...AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS UNCHANGED IN GRADUALLY BENDING THE TRACK TO THE WEST IN\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nHILARY IS OVER 22C SSTS AND IS NO LONGER GENERATING ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING\r\nSINCE AN 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD NUMEROUS 40 KT VECTORS.  IF NO\r\nNEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS...HILARY WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 23.7N 120.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 24.4N 121.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.1N 123.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 25.6N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilary","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nHAVING FAILED TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE EARLY THIS\r\nMORNING...HILARY NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHEREFORE THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST IN\r\nTHE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES IN\r\nTHREE TO FOUR DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF HILARY PLEASE SEE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 24.5N 121.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.1N 122.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 25.6N 124.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.9N 126.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-08-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nA WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 1.5 FROM TAFB...WHICH ARE HIGH\r\nENOUGH TO INITIATE ADVISORIES.  CONVECTION IS STILL A LITTLE\r\nTHIN...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF\r\nHURRICANE HILARY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  CONSEQUENTLY...ONLY\r\nLIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST.  BY 72 HOURS...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...AND THIS SOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD THE GFDL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REDUCES THE FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 7 KT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 17.2N 106.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.6N 107.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 112.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 19.5N 124.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-08-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU AUG 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF T.D. NINE HAS NOT IMPROVED THIS EVENING\r\nAND THE SYSTEM IS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 2.0 OR 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WHICH INDICATES A LESSENING OF THE\r\nSHEAR WITHIN 12-18 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES WARM SSTS. \r\nBY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF\r\nHURRICANE HILARY. CONSEQUENTLY...MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS BEING\r\nFORECAST UNTIL THAT TIME. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nMOVING OVER CLIMATOLOGICALLY COOLER WATERS WITH DISSIPATION\r\nEXPECTED BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS AND CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 17.2N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 108.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 113.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-08-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST GOES-10 AND GOES-12 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0518Z AMSU PASS\r\nINDICATE THE CIRCULATION CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nBASED ON DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.5 OR 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nAND UNCONTAMINATED 35-40 KT WINDS FROM A 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS...T.D.\r\nNINE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IRWIN. CURRENTLY THE STORM\r\nIS ENCOUNTERING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR BUT THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX A BIT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...PERHAPS ALLOWING IRWIN TO\r\nINTENSIFY TO A 50 KT STORM IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HOWEVER HOLDS\r\nIRWIN TO 50 KT BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK RELATIVE\r\nTO THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM.  BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS WITH DISSIPATION STILL EXPECTED IN\r\n120 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. IRWIN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nAND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM ON AN OVERALL WESTERLY TRACK.  THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS DISSIPATE IRWIN IN TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS A CIRCULATION AND FORECASTS THE STORM\r\nTO MOVE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GFS GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 17.5N 108.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 111.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.2N 113.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 18.3N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.2N 119.1W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-08-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT IRWIN AS A STRONGER TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. CONVECTION REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AS NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR IRWIN IS\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDS 47 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IRWIN TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IRWIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS AND MODERATE SHEAR\r\nWHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING UP TO 50 KT. IN THE EXTENDED\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IRWIN CROSSES BEYOND THE\r\n26 SST DEGREE ISOTHERM SO A DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO DEPRESSION\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10.  IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD KEEPING IRWIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS OUT TO 72 HRS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE FSSE AND GFS TRACKS THAT KEEP IRWIN TRACKING WESTWARD. \r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS AND GFDL IN THE LATE PERIOD TRACK IRWIN ON A\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 17.8N 109.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 110.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.1N 112.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.3N 114.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 18.3N 116.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 18.2N 120.1W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-08-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n\r\nGOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY OF IRWIN SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES\r\nTO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE MAIN CONVECTION IS CONFINED\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED.\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 3.0 OR 45 KT.\r\nSIMILARILY...THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS AND CSU-CIRA AMSU MICROWAVE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALSO AROUND 45 KT. BASED ON THESE PRESENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS IRWIN AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. THE GFDL AND FSSE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM\r\nBELOW 50 KT AND THEN WEAKEN IT TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH BEYOND 72\r\nHRS. THE SHIPS MODEL PREDICTS IRWIN WILL REACH 50 KT IN THE 24-48\r\nHR FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TREND AS THE GFDL AND\r\nFSSE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IT CAPS THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT IN THE FIRST\r\n72 HRS AND EVENTUALLY DROPS IRWIN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE\r\nLATER PERIOD. IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT IRWIN OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY...THEN FASTER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nFORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS. IRWIN WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nINDIVIDUAL MODELS AND CONSENSUS MODELS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THE\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND GFS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACKS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 17.7N 110.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.8N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 17.9N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N 117.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-08-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2005\r\n \r\nIRWIN REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER AND\r\nCONVECTION ONLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER CONVECTION\r\nIS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES OF 3.0 OR 45 KT. THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE...MAINTAINING IRWIN AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE\r\nNEXT 96 HOURS AS SST'S REMAIN BETWEEN 26 AND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10. IRWIN IS CONTINUING TO BE STEERED BY A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP IRWIN ON A\r\nWESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH\r\nTHE FIRST THREE DAYS AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS IN THE EXTENDED\r\nPERIODS...SINCE THIS IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL WHICH MAINTAINS\r\nTHE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 17.5N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 17.6N 114.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.6N 116.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 124.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 127.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-08-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN HAS BECOME RATHER\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...REMAINING PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. DYNAMICAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS-BASED\r\nSHIPS...SUGGEST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR BEYOND\r\nDAY 2. SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nRELATIVELY WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO\r\nBE THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE\r\nCANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF EVEN INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT POSSIBLE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS\r\nCONSIDERING THE AFOREMENTIONED DISSIPATION SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9. AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP\r\nIRWIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE CONU CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM WITHIN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 17.5N 111.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N 115.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 116.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 17.5N 125.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-08-27 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nA SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST WEST OF THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP\r\nIRWIN A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...\r\nWITH SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR EXPECTED AFTER THAT. GIVEN THAT\r\nIRWIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 26-27C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM GOING AS A MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH\r\nONLY WEAKENS IRWIN TO 25 KT IN 120 HOURS BENEATH 12 KT OF SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 270/9. THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE\r\nWESTWARD AS IRWIN IS STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS\r\nFROM MEXICO WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IRWIN. THIS MOTION IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...\r\nIRWIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER OR VERY NEAR SSTS WARM ENOUGH TO\r\nSUPPORT THE OCCASIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS\r\nINTERMITTENT STRENGTHENING OF THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION IN\r\nCONJUNCTION WITH SOUTHEAST TO EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nMAY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL WOBBLES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THE\r\nMEAN WESTERLY FORECAST TRACK INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 17.4N 112.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 17.4N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 115.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 17.6N 117.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 17.7N 119.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 17.6N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 17.5N 130.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-08-27 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS EITHER WEAKENED OR BEEN SHEARED OFF\r\nWELL TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND IRWIN\r\nCOULD VERY WELL BE A DEPRESSION. INSTEAD...I HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 35 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND SOME\r\n35-40 KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 27/1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. IN\r\nADDITION... A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED\r\nRE-DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH COULD BE A\r\nPRECURSOR TO ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMING. HOWEVER...\r\nIF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...THEN IRWIN WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW PRESENT ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 12Z GFS\r\nAND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS TAKE IRWIN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...WHEREAS THE REST OF THE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD\r\nAND THEN DISSIPATE IT AFTER 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT IRWIN WILL BE OVER\r\n26-27C SSTS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... I HAVE KEPT THE\r\nSYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH KEEPS IRWIN AS A 25-KT\r\nDEPRESSION AFTER 72 HOURS UNDERNEATH GRADUALLY DECREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR. HOWEVER...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT IRWIN MAY DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOME FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 17.4N 113.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 17.4N 114.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 17.4N 116.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.4N 117.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N 118.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.2N 121.2W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 124.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W    25 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-08-28 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION\r\nSHEARED ABOUT 145 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE POORLY DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 25 AND 30\r\nKT...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH.  THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.  SHIPS\r\nINDICATES THAT THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH\r\nTHE PERIOD.  IRWIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A DRYER MORE\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION\r\nIN 24 HOURS...FURTHER DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.   \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8.  AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED\r\nLOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST A LOW TO MID LEVEL\r\nHIGH BUILDING JUST TO THE WEST OF IRWIN DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. \r\nTHE OTHER AVAILABLE MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT\r\n3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS.     \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 17.2N 114.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 17.1N 115.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.1N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 17.1N 119.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 122.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-08-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0158Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT THAT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF CLOUDS\r\nWITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 25 KT CONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT.  IRWIN\r\nHAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS.  IF NO\r\nNEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IRWIN WILL DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6.  THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 17.1N 114.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.1N 115.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 16.8N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-08-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT IRWIN AS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND IT IS MAINLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. TAFB AND SAB BOTH FOUND THE\r\nSYSTEM TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY\r\nDISSIPATING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. THE REMNANT LOW OF IRWIN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATING. BASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION FOR MANY HOURS...THIS\r\nWILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON IRWIN...UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 16.9N 115.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.9N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.7N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-12 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nDEPICT THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E.\r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING\r\nOVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE\r\nSITUATED OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND BENEATH A LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD BE MOVING IN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CLOSER TO COOLER\r\nWATERS. THEREFORE...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE PERIOD IS\r\nFORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/8. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS\r\nSITUATED WITHIN THE MID-LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nSTRETCHING WEST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nTHIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST\r\nFORCING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nAVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS AND CLIMATOLOGY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 14.9N 114.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 116.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 118.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 15.8N 120.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 122.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 126.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-12 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY YESTERDAY EVENING UNTIL A NEW BUT\r\nFAIRLY SMALL BURST DEVELOPED AFTER ABOUT 04Z.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nMAINTAINED AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A 02Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nAND ON THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS.  EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS NOT LOOKED VERY IMPRESSIVE RECENTLY... THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING... WITH WEAK\r\nSHEAR RESULTING FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND EXTENDING WESTWARD. SINCE OCEAN CONDITIONS ARE ALSO\r\nFAVORABLE... WITH SSTS 27C OR GREATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 3-4 DAYS... SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED\r\nUNTIL REACHING SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8... WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE EASTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 23N.\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY SINCE THE\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP AND THE RIDGE CURRENTLY IS A BIT\r\nNARROW.  HOWEVER... THE RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTO STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD TOWARD HAWAII DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS... LEAVING LITTLE DOUBT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nMOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... AT AN INCREASING\r\nRATE OF FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... LEANING MORE TOWARD THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 15.0N 115.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 117.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.6N 119.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.9N 121.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.1N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 134.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-12 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH HAS BEEN NOTED WITH T.D. TEN THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES A CONSENSUS T2.0...30\r\nKT...FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES. THIS WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEW BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER\r\nWHICH IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED DATA. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST TO\r\n140W. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND FAVOR AT\r\nLEAST MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER 27C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TO 50 KT IN 48 HOURS...THEN\r\nHOLDING STEADY THROUGH 120 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nNEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SSTS COOL\r\nSLIGHTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS\r\nBASED PRIMARILY ON A COMBINATION OF MICROWAVE DATA FROM LAST NIGHT\r\nAND CONTINUITY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT BETWEEN\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH FAVOR A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nMOTION...AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH KEEP A WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND MAINTAINS A STEADY 270-280 DEGREE MOTION THROUGH\r\n120 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 15.5N 117.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.9N 118.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.3N 120.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 123.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 131.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 136.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N 142.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-12 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n\r\nTEN-E IS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED AND...EVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE\r\nCENTER.  AS A COMPROMISE AMONG LOW-CONFIDENCE CENTER FIXES...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS RELOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DEPICT A WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nFAIRLY CONSISTENT ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE...ALBEIT ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL CENTER REPOSITIONING.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION LACKS BANDING FEATURES AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM\r\nTAFB WAS LOWERED AT 18Z.  BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE\r\nSYSTEM INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY ENTER A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD\r\nAND BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nHOWEVER...BASED ON THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THIS\r\nSTRENGTHENING SCENARIO MAY NOT MATERIALIZE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 15.0N 118.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 125.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N 127.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 14.5N 137.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 142.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-13 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH NO CLEARLY DISCERNABLE\r\nCENTER.  THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT PASS...HOWEVER...DID SHOW A BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION.  DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN PERHAPS\r\nSOME IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH T2.0\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH\r\nOF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS FAVORABLE...AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS DECK AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nPREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.  ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS\r\nDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM VERY QUICKLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LACK\r\nOF A CLEAR CENTER...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/10.  RIDGING IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES ON A BASIC WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nFASTER AND THE GFDL RATHER SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 14.8N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 14.4N 127.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 14.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-13 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED DURING THE OVERNIGHT\r\nHOURS. ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA FROM AROUND 0200 UTC\r\nSHOWED A BROAD AND POSSIBLY ELONGATED CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPOSITION. EARLIER BANDING FEATURES NORTH OF THE CENTER HAVE MOSTLY\r\nDISSIPATED...WITH ONLY A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH T2.0 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH A DEEP LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE PROVIDING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE INITIAL POSITION WILL KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM OVER WARM WATER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW BUT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...TAKING THE SYSTEM TO 64 KT BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS DESPITE\r\nPERSISTENT NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS. THE GFDL IS QUITE\r\nERRATIC IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHENS THE\r\nCYCLONE TO 82 KT NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS MODEL IS ON\r\nTHE OTHER EXTREME...DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM VERY EARLY IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KT\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO THE LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER POSITION...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 265/9 BASED\r\nON A 24-HOUR MOTION. DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...EXCEPT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHERE IT\r\nIS VERY CLOSE. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 14.2N 119.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.0N 121.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 13.8N 123.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 13.5N 127.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N 132.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-13 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE\r\nBUT IT APPEARS TO BE TO THE EAST OF THE WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY. T-NUMBERS REMAIN ABOUT 1.5 AND 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.  VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY\r\nWILL LIKELY HELP US TO HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE\r\nWHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS\r\nPERSISTENT HIGH IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE SO THIS GENERAL \r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED INDICATING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. \r\n\r\nTHE SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION OVER\r\nRELATIVELY WARMER WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.\r\nTHEREFORE...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND THE FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY. THE GFDL IS A LITTLE MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nAND THE DEPRESSION COULD EASILY WEAKEN INSTEAD.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 14.2N 121.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 13.8N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.7N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 13.7N 128.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 13.7N 133.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 14.0N 137.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 141.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-13 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nA SMALL CDO HAS FORMED AND THERE IS A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE 2.0 FROM AFWA AND TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nVERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHOWS INCREASING STABILITY ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE.  GLOBAL MODELS DO\r\nNOT SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS ARE NOT HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...IN\r\nFAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.\r\n\r\nA STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nWESTWARD MOVEMENT.  CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10 ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED IS SOMEWHAT FASTER.  TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH A TENDENCY FOR A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND SLOWING BY DAYS 4-5.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS AND SIMILAR\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A NEW TROPICAL DISTURBANCE HAS JUST\r\nDEVELOPED A LITTLE OVER 500 N MI TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTEN-E...AND IT SHOWS SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  SINCE\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD FASTER THAN THE\r\nDISTURBANCE IS MOVING...A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nSYSTEMS DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 14.2N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.1N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 13.9N 125.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 13.9N 127.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 134.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-14 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2005\r\n \r\nA TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 2259Z INDICATED RAINBANDS ARE BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE\r\nAPPEARANCE ON MICROWAVE MIGHT BE A BIT DECEIVING GIVEN THE MORE\r\nDISHEVELED LOOK OF THE DEPRESSION ON SATELLITE WITH FADING\r\nCONVECTION TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE NOT YET AT\r\nTROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH FROM ALL AGENCIES AND WE WOULD PREFER TO\r\nWAIT UNTIL RECEIVING CONSENSUS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nBEFORE UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IS\r\nIN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION AND IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM SOON. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFDL...\r\nWHICH TURNS TEN-E INTO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS... AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL WHICH NEVER GETS ABOVE 58 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL SPEED HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW ABOUT 265/12. A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...CONTINUES TO FORCE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOVEMENT.\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE EARLIER WITH THE GFS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AS IT MOVES THE MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE WESTWARD\r\nMORE IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO FASTER SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE NOGAPS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IS\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WITH A MOTION MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 96 HOURS OR SO. \r\n \r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E APPEARS TO BE\r\nLESSENING TONIGHT.  THIS IS BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING...FURTHER INCREASING\r\nTHE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 14.2N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.1N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 14.0N 127.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.0N 130.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 14.0N 132.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 14.0N 137.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-14 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nT.D. TEN-E IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. LATEST DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...WHICH\r\nSUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY WEAKENING IN THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nDESPITE PERSISTENT SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nLATEST SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nTHEREFORE HELD AT 30 KT. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN\r\nA LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST ENVIRONMENT. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS\r\nUNCLEAR...WITH THE GFDL DELAYING SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN IT TURNS TEN-E INTO AN 81 KT HURRICANE...AND\r\nSHIPS WHICH KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS WHICH CALLS FOR SLOW BUT\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN HOLDING STEADY AT 96\r\nAND 120 HOURS DUE TO POSSIBLE SOUTHERLY SHEAR ONCE THE SYSTEM\r\nCROSSES 140W.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 265/12. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS\r\nLARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A STRONG \r\nMID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST MOTION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nA LITTLE FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFS THE FASTEST OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE GFS DEPICTING A WEAKER\r\nSYSTEM THAN THE OTHER MODELS...THUS BEING STEERED MORE BY THE LOW\r\nLEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND EVER SO\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND\r\nCONSENSUS SOLUTIONS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS AND DEVELOP A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ABOUT 600-700 NM\r\nNE OF HAWAII. THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN THE SYSTEM\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS\r\nTHE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL SUGGESTS.  \r\n \r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF A BINARY INTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 500 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TEN-E IS LESSENING AS THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE DISTURBANCE...FURTHER\r\nINCREASING THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 14.1N 125.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.0N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 13.9N 129.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 13.8N 132.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 13.7N 135.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 147.0W    60 KT\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-14 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE THREE AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...HOWEVER BOTH TAFB AND AFWA LOWERED THE T-NUMBER AT\r\n12Z.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED...SO THE SYSTEM IS NOT\r\nUPGRADED AT THIS TIME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN\r\n10 KT THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STEADY INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE BUOYANCY TERM IN THE SHIPS OUTPUT SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT A STABLE AIR MASS MAY IMPEDE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS\r\nAND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF WEST...260/11.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE...WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING FEATURE FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  BY DAYS 4-5...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nWEAKENING OF THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF 140W.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK MAINTAINS A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 3...\r\nWITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG WITH SOME SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER.  THIS IS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL/UKMET/\r\nNOGAPS/GFS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 13.9N 126.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N 127.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 13.6N 130.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 13.4N 133.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 13.3N 135.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 140.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 144.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION\r\nFOUND IN BANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WINDS...BUT HOW GOOD THESE ARE\r\nIS UNCERTAIN DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/10.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE DEEP-\r\nLAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HR...\r\nTAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  MOST MODELS SHOW\r\nTHIS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS A PROLONGED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMOTION NOT SHOWN BY THE OTHER MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...\r\nAND GFDN RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES A WESTWARD MOTION ALONG 12N.  GIVEN THIS\r\nSPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A LITTLE SLOWER MOTION\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nOVERALL...CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...\r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST\r\nTHAT DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOW FOR THE FIRST 12 HR OR SO.  THE GFDL\r\nIS ALONE IN TAKING THE SYSTEM UP TO A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL.  IF THE SYSTEM TURNS MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...IT WILL\r\nLIKELY BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 13.5N 128.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.3N 131.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N 133.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 13.3N 135.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N 140.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 147.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED \r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. IN ADDITION  \r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE\r\nAGENCIES. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOVA\r\nWITH THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEEP-\r\nLAYER RIDGING SHOULD PREVAIL NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 60-72\r\nHRS...TAKING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS IS\r\nONCE AGAIN A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND INDICATES A PROLONGED WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MOTION THROUGH 72 HR. AFTER 72 HR...THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SHOW AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...GFDL...\r\nAND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS RESPOND TO THIS FEATURE BY TURNING THE\r\nSYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE GFS NOW SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD \r\nMOTION AFTER 72 HR AND IS CLOSER TO THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...THEN TURNS THE\r\nSYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION. THIS IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE GFDL IS RATHER\r\nAGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS JOVA UP TO 80-85 KT...THEN KEEPS THE SYSTEM A\r\nHURRICANE DESPITE A FORECAST TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS. THUS THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD SHIPS AND BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO A\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE IN 72 HR BEFORE THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS BRINGS ABOUT SOME WEAKENING.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 13.7N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 13.7N 129.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 13.6N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 134.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 137.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 141.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 144.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 147.0W    55 KT\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nLITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN JOVA'S STRUCTURE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF STRONG\r\nCONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM T3.0...45 KT...FROM\r\nTAFB AND T2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM\r\n0230Z WHICH SHOWED A FEW 40 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nCONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48-72 HOURS. THE GFDL REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND BRINGS\r\nJOVA UP TO 93 KT IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE TAKE THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 65 KT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS IN PEAKING JOVA AT 65 KT AT\r\n48 AND 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER WITH ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING SLOW WEAKENING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL WEAKEN JOVA TO 50 KT BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 270/10. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE WITH\r\nTHE SAME GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH INDICATES DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HRS...TAKING THE\r\nSYSTEM ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK. THE GFS MODEL REMAINS AS A \r\nSOUTHERN OUTLIER...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\nTHE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN IS\r\nFOR A SLOWER MOTION IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...AS JOVA SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nWEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS A BIT\r\nSLOWER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT FASTER THAN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 13.7N 129.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 13.7N 130.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.6N 133.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 13.6N 135.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.6N 137.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 14.0N 141.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 144.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JOVA IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN...EVEN WITH\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THIS MAKES THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nUNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45\r\nAND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n40 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO VALUES. JOVA REMAINS A\r\nSMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH NO DEEP BANDING AND A SMALL BUT\r\nEXPANDING REA OF DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST SIDE OF\r\nTHE PRESUMED CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND A LIMITED OUTFLOW PATTERN.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nNOT BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE WATERS WILL BE WARM FOR THE NEXT 3-4\r\nDAYS...SO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING JOVA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10.  JOVA IS SOUTH OF A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND HENCE A BASIC WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED. \r\nAFTER 72 HOURS...MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD SLOW AND BEND THE TRACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE EARLIER TREND\r\nOF A SLOWER MOTION...ESPECIALLY LATE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND FURTHER SUCH ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY LATER ON. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 13.8N 130.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.6N 131.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.4N 133.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.2N 135.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 13.2N 137.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n\r\nJOVA HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE PAST 24 HR...WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION AND A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTER BAND OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND\r\nINTENSITY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY A DIURNAL\r\nDECREASE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n55 KT.\r\n\r\nJOVA IS MOVING TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY...260/13.  A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION FOR 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...A\r\nDEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED\r\nAFTER THAT TIME.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS FASTER.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU.\r\n\r\nJOVA IS OVER 28C WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT. \r\nTHUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR 48-72 HR.  THE GFDN\r\nBRING THE STORM TO 121 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR 90 KT\r\nIN 48 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN\r\nTHIS...CALLING FOR 80 KT IN 72 HR...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE SHIPS FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...JOVA SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR AND SHOULD WEAKEN.  THE NOGAPS AND GFS\r\nSUGGEST THE STORM MAY ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR THAN INDICATED IN\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THAT HAPPENS JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 13.0N 132.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 12.8N 133.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 12.6N 135.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 12.5N 137.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 12.7N 139.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 13.5N 142.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 146.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC...SMALL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ABOUT 100 NM IN DIAMETER WITH INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND COLDER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  SHIPS ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE\r\nIN SHEAR BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/12.  A STRONG MID- LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS... THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY A CARBON COPY OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND AGREES WITH THE\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNA...AND CONU.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 12.9N 133.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 12.8N 134.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 12.6N 137.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 12.7N 138.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 13.0N 140.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 143.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 147.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES PERSISTENT STRONG CONVECTION WITH VERY\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN A RELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. \r\nDESPITE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 AND T4.0 RESPECTIVELY...WHILE\r\nAFWA REMAINS STEADY AT T4.0. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING JOVA THE FIFTH HURRICANE\r\nOF THE 2005 SEASON. JOVA REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SST\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH SUPPORTS FURTHER STRENGTHENING FOR ABOUT THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS. SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IN THE 24-48 HOUR TIME FRAME WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN JOVA...\r\nWHILE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO\r\n82 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL LEAN TOWARD SHIPS AND TAKE THE SYSTEM TO 75 KT IN 24-48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER\r\nSSTS. SHIPS GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A LESS-FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING THE INTENSITY DOWN TO\r\n60 KT BY 120 HOURS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/11. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO SLOW AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THEN\r\nDIVERGES IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME...WITH NOGAPS MUCH FASTER\r\nAND THE GFS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE\r\nOFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE\r\nGFDL AND CONSENSUS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 13.0N 134.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 12.8N 136.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 12.7N 138.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 13.5N 141.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 143.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 147.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT\r\nSTORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TOPS TO -80C NEAR\r\nOR SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS AN EYE IS\r\nPRESENT UNDER THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77\r\nKT FROM TAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  THERE\r\nIS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48\r\nHR OR SO...THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE\r\nDIFFERENCES IN SPEED AFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER\r\nNOGAPS AND THE SLOWER GFS AND GFDL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nJOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS LIGHT.  THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR\r\nAT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.  AFTER 36 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN COOLING\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 12.8N 135.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 12.7N 136.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 12.8N 138.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 13.1N 140.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 13.5N 141.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 148.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A COMPACT\r\nSTORM...WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY.  AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW AN EYE AND EYEWALL\r\nUNDERNEATH THE CDO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND THE\r\nORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE AMSU IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nJOVA SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE FOR 48 HR OR SO...THEN TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY \r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THE TRACK...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED\r\nAFTER 72 HR...MOST NOTABLY BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND THE NOW\r\nEVEN SLOWER GFS GFDL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED IN THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION.\r\n \r\nJOVA REMAINS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS LIGHT.  THIS SHOULD ALLLOW CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR\r\nAT LEAST 24-36 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE JOVA COULD GET STRONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.  AFTER 36-48 HR...THE SSTS GRADUALLY BEGIN\r\nCOOLING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE STRONGER GFDL AND GFDN\r\nFOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN FOLLOWS SHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 12.4N 136.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 12.2N 137.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 12.3N 139.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 141.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 13.2N 142.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 146.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AQUA-1 MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nDEPICT CONSIDERABLE EXPANSION OF THE OUTER BANDS THIS\r\nEVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nINNER CORE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER COMPACT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AFWA REMAIN UNCHANGED...AS WELL\r\nAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. \r\nTHE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT ALLOWING FOR FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THE 48 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING UPPER\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8.  THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JOVA IN A WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD\r\nMOTION AND BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nDEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA AND CONU\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 12.3N 136.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.3N 138.3W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.6N 139.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 13.1N 141.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 13.7N 142.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 144.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 146.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 148.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nA RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE PRESENCE OF AN\r\nIRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTER BANDS\r\nREMAIN IMPRESSIVE OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM\r\nAFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS...POSSIBLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST. THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...JOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nAIR MASS.  THE SHIPS MODEL...GFS...AND THE ECMWF ALSO SUGGEST\r\nINCREASING UPPER SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES APPROACHING THE SYSTEM LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A\r\nMID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST\r\nIN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY\r\nSLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 12.2N 137.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.4N 138.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 140.1W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 13.3N 141.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.9N 142.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.2N 144.2W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 148.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nAN IMPRESSIVE OUTER BAND CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WHILE\r\nTHE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS EXPANDED AND NOW COVERS THE E\r\nSEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 36 HOURS...THEREAFTER\r\nJOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REDUCE IN FORWARD MOTION AND TURN TOWARD NORTHWEST\r\nIN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED 660 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 12.3N 138.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.4N 139.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.9N 140.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 13.4N 141.7W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 142.9W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.3N 144.6W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 146.3W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.4N 148.3W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nWELL DEFINED BANDING CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BUT\r\nTHE OUTER BANDING ELSEWHERE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING A WARMING PHASE.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 77 KT FROM\r\nAFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 90 KT. A RESENT SSMIS\r\nOVERPASS AT 1729 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE NE OF CURRENT\r\nPOSITION...AND AN ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT PACKAGE.  \r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND THE SHIPS INDICATE THAT WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO 95 KT...CONTINUING THROUGH 24 HOURS...THEREAFTER\r\nJOVA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. ADDITIONALLY THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...\r\nTHEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED 600 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS...AND DIGGING SE WITH TIME. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY\r\nON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER NELSON/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 12.5N 139.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 140.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 13.2N 141.7W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 13.9N 142.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 14.6N 143.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N 147.3W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N 149.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nA 2228Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED A VERY SMALL...ROUND EYE WITH DEEP\r\nCENTRAL CORE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nENTIRE SYSTEM...RAINBANDS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY. DRY AIR COULD POSSIBLY\r\nBE ENTRAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE MID- LEVELS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 90 KT. INTENSITY MODELS ALL SUGGEST\r\nTHAT JOVA HAS PEAKED AND SHOULD MAINTAIN CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH\r\nSOME POSSIBLE FLUCTUATIONS...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO COOLER WATERS\r\nAND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. BY DAY 4...UPPER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/9.  JOVA SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...\r\nTHEN CONTINUE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...\r\nBASED PRIMARILY ON THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL...IS SIMILAR TO THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 13.4N 140.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 141.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 142.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 143.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 145.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 147.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N 148.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-14 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 500 N MI EAST OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E HAS\r\nDEVELOPED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS TO -75C.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/9.  NONE OF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF...ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THIS\r\nSYSTEM EXISTS.  THE ECMWF CALLS FOR A ERRATIC WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING MORE WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE NHC91.  SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR\r\nONCE THE INITIAL MOTION IS BETTER KNOWN.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nGRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL TO\r\nFORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL LEAN MORE ON THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 12.5N 118.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 13.0N 119.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.4N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.7N 123.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 125.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 131.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS PULSING UP AND DOWN ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH IS PARTLY EXPOSED\r\nON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. A TRMM PASS AT 2203Z CONFIRMS THIS SHEARED\r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nNOW AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FROM TAFB/SAB...THE TRMM PASS SHOWED\r\nNO WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION HIGHER THAN 25 KT.\r\nTHERE ARE ALSO NO TRUE CURVED BAND FEATURES WITH A BLOB-LIKE\r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30\r\nKT AND IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME THE\r\n11TH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON OVERNIGHT.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SEEM FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.  SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD DUE TO GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.   \r\n \r\nTHE TRMM PASS ALSO HELPED THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NOW ABOUT\r\n310/9.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nEARLIER...PERHAPS RESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nALONG 125W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT... OR\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL. \r\nMODELS ALSO INSIST ON A SLOWER MOTION THAN RECENTLY SEEN AND THE\r\nFORECAST SPEED IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  SOME ADJUSTMENT IN TRACK WILL PROBABLY STILL BE\r\nNEEDED AS THE 00Z MODEL SUITE BETTER ASSIMILATES THE DEPRESSION'S\r\nPOSITION AND INTENSITY.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 13.0N 119.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 13.5N 120.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 14.0N 121.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N 124.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N 127.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CLUSTER OF VERY STRONG\r\nCONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -80C WHICH HAVE\r\nPERSISTED FOR THE PAST 6-8 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE\r\nT3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nELEVEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH...THE ELEVENTH\r\nTROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. \r\n\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 35 KT. LAST EVENING THE\r\nCENTER WAS EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT LATEST\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW UNDERNEATH THE \r\nSTRONG CONVECTION. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS\r\nEMBEDDED IN RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 20N-25N. THE ONLY POSSIBLE\r\nINHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE KENNETH'S PROXIMITY TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nJOVA TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN KENNETH...THEREBY LESSENING THE CHANCES OF ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES. BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 125W.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED RATHER TIGHTLY ALONG A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODELS SHOW\r\nSOME DIVERGENCE WITH THE GFS CONTINUING A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK...AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL WHICH TURNS KENNETH IN A\r\nCYCLONIC LOOP. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT SLOWER. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 13.1N 119.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 13.5N 120.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.9N 121.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.3N 123.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 14.7N 124.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 128.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 131.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WELL-DEFINED BANDING IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND VERY COLD CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM 35 TO 45 KT AND MAY STILL BE A\r\nLITTLE BEHIND THE CURVE.  OUTFLOW IS STRONG TO THE SOUTH BUT\r\nLIMITED ELSEWHERE.  INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR THAT OF\r\nJOVA...WITH THE GFDL TAKING THE SYSTEM TO OVER 80 KT BUT THE SHIPS\r\nKEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM.  GIVEN THE MORE IMPRESSIVE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM...I TEND TO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFDL\r\nSOLUTION.  INTERESTINGLY...BOTH THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS\r\nAGGRESSIVELY DEVELOP THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH AND END\r\nUP HAVING THIS SYSTEM ABSORB KENNETH.  THIS SCENARIO IS NOT\r\nCONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH DOES NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 13.1N 120.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 122.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.9N 123.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.2N 124.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.8N 126.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 129.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nAFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED CLOUD PATTERN\r\nFOR KENNETH...WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND NOT A LOT OF CONCENTRATED CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5.  KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND AN\r\nAREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nWESTWARD...POSSIBLY SLOWING DOWN EVEN FURTHER AS THE DISTURBANCE TO\r\nTHE EAST DEVELOPS AND GETS CLOSER.  THE GFDL AND GFS CALL FOR A\r\nLOOP AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE DISTURBANCE.  SINCE OTHER MODELS\r\nDO NOT AGREE WITH THIS...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL NOT FORECAST ANY\r\nINTERACTION AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A SLOW GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS... GUNA...AND CONU FOR THE\r\nFIRST 72 HR...THEN A BIT FASTER AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nKENNETH IS OVER 28C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE\r\nNORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE STORM INTO\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN 48-72 HR...AND KENNETH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN UNTIL THEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 70 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE GFDL 80 KT FORECAST\r\nAND THE SHIPS 65 KT FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...KENNETH SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nSHOULD KENNETH AND THE DISTURBANCE INTERACT...BOTH THE TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED CONSIDERABLE REVISION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 13.0N 120.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.1N 121.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.3N 122.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 13.6N 123.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 125.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N 127.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT KENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE.  IMAGERY DEPICTS A\r\nWELL DEVELOPED SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH \r\nAN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST\r\nSEMI-CIRCLES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n65 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BUT INCREASES THE WINDS TO 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...\r\nWHICH AGREES WITH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.  BEYOND DAY\r\n3...KENNETH SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8.  KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID- LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...AND IS SITUATED BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE WEST AND\r\nA BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THE GFDL/GFDN/UKMET/  \r\nECMWF AND GFS INDICATE AN ABRUPT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION AND A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH KENNETH AND A\r\nPOTENTIALLY DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST SIMULTANEOUSLY\r\nTURNING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BREAK IN THE MID- LAYER RIDGE. \r\nTHE NOGAPS DEPICTS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS DEVELOPMENT OF THE AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST...HENCE...MAINTAINING KENNETH ON A\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRRORS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS SLOWER THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINING PERIOD CONFORMING TO THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.2N 122.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 123.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 13.9N 124.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.2N 125.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 14.7N 127.3W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n\r\nCORRECTED SECOND PARAGRAPH\r\n \r\nKENNETH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING\r\nVERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND WELL DEFINED BANDS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.0 FROM AFWA. ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0210Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS\r\nMAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE ABOVE DATA...AND IS\r\nSET AT 70 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE CYCLONE MAY BE PRODUCING SOME NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR...HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE DISRUPTING KENNETH ENOUGH\r\nTO PREVENT STRENGTHENING. INTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION TREND CONTINUING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY\r\nSOME WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TAKE KENNETH TO 85 KT AT 24-36 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO 60 KT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9. KENNETH IS SOUTH OF A MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST FROM MEXICO...WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE NEAR 125W. THIS WEAKNESS SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AS IT\r\nMOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS MODEL RUN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SLOWS DOWN THE\r\nSYSTEM...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE... \r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 96\r\nAND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MOLLEDA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 13.0N 122.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.2N 123.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 13.5N 125.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 126.1W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N 127.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 129.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 15.5N 130.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES AS\r\nWELL AS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHIN 60NM OF THE CENTER. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB YIELD T4.5 OR 77 KT.  BASED\r\nON AN IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND DATA-T\r\nNUMBERS AT 4.5...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE DIFFERS BETWEEN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE WITH MAXIMUM STRENGTHENING FORECAST AT 76 KT...81 KT...AND\r\n88 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THE NORTHERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nDISTURBING THE CURRENT OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH TO 85 KT IN 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS.    \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED\r\nBY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOW DOWN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TRACK THE SYSTEM ON\r\nA MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST TAKES KENNETH JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GUNS AND GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 13.0N 123.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.3N 124.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.8N 125.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 14.2N 126.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 14.6N 127.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 15.3N 131.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 4.0 TO 5.0 FROM THE THREE AGENCIES\r\n...THIS YIELDS AN AVERAGE DATA-T OF 4.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHOLDS AT 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH SHOULD BE A TEMPORARY EFFECT.\r\nDESPITE THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS...THE OVERALL OUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS IMPROVED. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES KENNETH BRIEFLY TO 85 KT\r\nIN 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS KENNETH ENCOUNTERS\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED\r\nBY A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF 18N WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND TAKE KENNETH ON A\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ALONG THE CENTER OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 13.1N 124.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 13.4N 125.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 13.8N 126.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 127.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 14.6N 128.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 130.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 15.5N 132.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2005\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nSUGGEST THAT KENNETH HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. \r\nTHE MOST RECENT INFRARED AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICT A\r\nWELL DEFINED... BUT CLOUD-FILLED EYE...WITH INTENSE OUTER\r\nRAINBANDS EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 80 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WHICH AGREES WITH THE COUPLED GFDL AND\r\nTHE SHIPS...CALLING FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. KENNETH IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...AND SITUATED BETWEEN HURRICANE JOVA TO THE WEST AND A BROAD\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD A\r\nDEVELOPING BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR 135W. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH A GRADUAL\r\nREDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THIS\r\nSCENARIO FOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND AGREES WITH\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 13.3N 125.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 13.6N 126.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N 127.1W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 14.4N 128.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 14.7N 129.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.3N 130.8W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N 133.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nA 0435Z SSMI OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL\r\nSYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A ROUND...13 NM CLEAR EYE. CORE\r\nCONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...AND THE AODT SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 117 KT.  06Z DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES CLIMBED TO 90 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS AN THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nINDICATING A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE GFDL DROPS THE INTENSITY TO 75\r\nKT IN 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HEDGES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nAND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...MAINTAINING 90 KT AT 24 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS ALONG THE SYSTEM'S PATH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/7. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS ...AND INTO A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE GFDL AND THE GFS\r\nSUGGEST A MORE ABRUPT TURN TO THE NORTH NEAR 131/132W...WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN AND THE UKMET INDICATE A GRADUAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE WEAKNESS THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST. THE ONLY OUTLIER IN THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS A CONSIDERABLY FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE THROUGH DAY 5. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nFOLLOWS THE CONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 13.6N 125.8W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 126.8W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 127.8W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 14.7N 128.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 15.1N 129.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 15.8N 131.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 133.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY AND A 1152Z SSMI OVERPASS CONTINUE TO SHOW A 25NM\r\nCLEAR SYMMETRIC EYE.  THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF\r\nKENNETH HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE\r\nMOST LIKELY REACHED PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 08Z EARLY THIS MORNING.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 5.5...102KT...FROM TAFB...AND\r\n5.0...90KT... FROM SAB. LATEST AODT ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 5.6 AND\r\n5.8 WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE SHIPS\r\nMAINTAINS KENNETH OVER A 100KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WEAKEN KENNETH TO 95KT AND\r\n80KT RESPECTIVELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS\r\nTHE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE MAINTAINING HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE SINCE THE LAST PACKAGE. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND INTO A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS NEAR 135W THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONU/GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 13.7N 126.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.1N 127.5W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 14.5N 128.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 14.9N 129.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.3N 130.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 131.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 133.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DISPLAY AN IMPRESSIVE 20 NM WIDE\r\nSYMMETRIC EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT T-NUMBER 5.5..OR\r\n102 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 105 KT. SSTS ARE CURRENTLY 28.0 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH ARE\r\nHELPING TO MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FROM SHIPS...THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nALL INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SSTS\r\nCOOL SLIGHTLY AND NORTHERLY SHEAR REMAINS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS WEAKENING TREND. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/6. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED. \r\nALL THE DYANAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE UKMET...KEEP KENNETH SLOWER\r\nAND TO THE RIGHT AND NORTH OF THE BAROTROPIC MODELS.  KENNETH IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW\r\nIN FORWARD MOTION AS THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAKER. \r\n\r\nBASED ON A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS...THE RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. THE 12 FOOT SEA RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON\r\nTHE LATEST NOAA WAVE WATCH THREE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 14.0N 127.5W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N 128.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 14.8N 129.3W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.3N 130.2W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.9N 131.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 17.2N 133.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 17.5N 134.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nDEPICT A CLEAR 25 NM EYE...AND AN EXPANSION OF THE BANDING OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS.  THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THE SIZE EXPANSION OVER THE TWO\r\nQUADRANTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WELL AS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS...AS\r\nTHE SHIPS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...KENNETH IS FORECAST TO SLOW IN\r\nFORWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH\r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS WHICH SUGGESTS AN EARLIER...ABRUPT TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND CLOSER TO THE NOGAPS AND THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 14.2N 128.2W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 14.6N 129.1W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.1N 130.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.1N 131.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 133.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 18.0N 135.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT THE TOPS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE INNER CORE HAVE COOLED.  A WHITE BAND PRACTICALLY\r\nSURROUNDED THE EYE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A VERY SMALL BREAK OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AGAIN REMAIN UNCHANGED\r\nAS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/6. THE NARROW MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED\r\nLOW DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO\r\nSUGGEST AN AGGRESSIVE INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE LOW...\r\nTURNING KENNETH SHARPLY TO THE NORTH IN 48 HOURS. ALL OTHER\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A SEEMINGLY MORE REASONABLE AND LESS\r\nAGGRESSIVE TURN INTO THE BREAK...WHICH IS USED AS THE BASIS FOR THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED BASED ON THE 0300Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 14.3N 128.8W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 14.4N 129.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 14.7N 130.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 15.4N 132.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N 136.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THIS YIELDS T NUMBERS OF 6.0\r\nFROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 5.5 FROM TAFB.  THE LATEST CIMSS AODT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AROUND T 6.2.  THIS SUPPORTS INCREASING THE\r\nINTENSITY TO 115 KT...WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/6. TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD IN\r\n36-48 HOURS...DUE TO AN INTERACTION WITH A DIGGING DEEP-LAYERED LOW\r\nOFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nMAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH MOVES KENNETH ON A\r\nMORE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND LEANS TOWARDS THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION OF A SLOW WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH \r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.  \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOWER WEAKER DUE TO THE \r\nHIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY. IF KENNETH TRACKS MORE WESTWARD IT \r\nWOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS WHICH COULD DELAY THE WEAKENING\r\nPROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 14.3N 129.4W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 14.4N 130.3W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.6N 131.2W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 14.9N 132.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 15.2N 132.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 16.7N 135.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n\r\nKENNETH REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE LOOKING BUT MINI CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 6.0 OR 115 KT AND\r\nESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS AODT ARE 6.4 RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOR KENNETH REMAINS AT 115 KT OR CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5. THE GFDL AND GFS TRACKS\r\nSTILL INSIST ON MOVING KENNETH NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HRS IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A DEEP LAYERED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCONE ON A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST TRACK AS STRONGER RIDGING REMAINS NORTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE IN A GENERAL SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL...IT CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING BEYOND\r\n60 HRS BUT THE SSTS REMAIN ABOVE 26 DEGREES THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HRS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 14.3N 129.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.4N 130.6W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 14.7N 131.4W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 15.0N 132.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 15.3N 132.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 16.0N 134.2W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 138.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n\r\nENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED 18 NM EYE...WITH\r\nCONSIDERABLE WARMING OF THE EYE WALL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KT. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE\r\nON A DECLINE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE. ALTHOUGH KENNETH MAY BE\r\nWEAKENING...THE TREND SHOULD BE GRADUAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6. KENNETH IS MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE\r\nGFDL CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO BE SOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE\r\nGFDN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 14.1N 130.4W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 131.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 14.3N 132.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 15.3N 134.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 135.2W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N 138.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nUPPER LEVEL WIND ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nUPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE JOVA IS CREATING SOME NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF KENNETH. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nERODED THE EYEWALL...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE COLLAPSED OVER THE NORTH\r\nQUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SO\r\nHAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE...WHICH IS SET AT 110 KT. THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES AND AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY HAVE MEANDERED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. KENNETH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOLLOWING THE FLOW\r\nALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE\r\nTO SUGGEST A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO\r\nSOME INTERACTION WITH TROPICAL STORM MAX TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND THE GFDN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 13.7N 130.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 13.7N 130.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 13.8N 131.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 14.0N 131.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 14.3N 132.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N 134.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 135.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 137.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nA VERY SMALL EYE CAN BE SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR...RESULTED BY THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER HURRICANE\r\nJOVA TO THE WEST...CONTINUES TO IMPEDE THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER...DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 5.5...102 KT FROM TAFB AND 5.0...90 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 100 KT AT ADVISORY TIME. THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES TO HAMPER ANY FURTHER REDEVELOPMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE EARLY MORNING\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER THE LAST FEW IMAGES HAVE INDICATED NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY MOTION. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT FOR THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS...WHETHER TO TRACK KENNETH IN A SMALL LOOP OR MOVE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TO\r\nTHE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER.\r\nKENNETH IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FLOW ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND CLOSE TO CONU. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 13.4N 130.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 13.4N 130.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 13.6N 131.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 13.9N 131.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 14.3N 132.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT DAY AND ALL OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION PREVIOUSLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OF KENNETH\r\nHAS WEAKENED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO LOWER WITH DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 5.0...90 KT...FROM TAFB AND 4.0...65 KT...FROM SAB.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 90 KT. SINCE SSTS\r\nREMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE AREA...SOME BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION MAY STILL REDEVELOP. THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO RELAX\r\nRESULTING IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR CONTINUED \r\nWEAKENING. KENNETH SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS IF\r\nNOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nKENNETH HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST NINE HOURS. KENNETH IS\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION...AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE ALLOWING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 13.4N 130.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 13.5N 130.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 13.8N 131.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.2N 132.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 14.9N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 136.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 138.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT DISORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nOUTER BANDS AND WARMING CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 2038Z TRMM OVERPASS CLEARLY\r\nCONFIRMED THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE SOUTH\r\nSEMI-CIRCLE. IT APPEARS...IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THAT AN UPPER\r\nANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF HURRICANE JOVA...AND IS PROVIDING\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KENNETH'S PATH. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 77 KT FROM AFWA...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. DATA-T NUMBERS\r\nHAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. AS A COMPROMISE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 36 HOURS. THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLIES AND COOLER\r\nWATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH BY DAY 5.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nAFTER AN 18 HOUR PERIOD OF MEANDERING WITHIN A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...KENNETH HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT\r\nAROUND 3 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE MID-\r\nLEVEL STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEN...A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS A MID-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS\r\nWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 13.6N 130.9W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 13.7N 131.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.1N 131.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N 132.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.3N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.2N 135.3W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 137.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 140.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A 0232Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATE FURTHER EROSION OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AS NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IMPEDES THE OUTFLOW.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ON THE DECLINE...WITH 77 KT FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES...AND DATA-T NUMBERS 55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 75 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS\r\nSHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/3. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A HIGH SITUATED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST IS EXPECTED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM\r\nTEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE NOGAPS...GFDN...UKMET AND THE GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 13.6N 131.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.7N 131.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.2N 132.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.7N 132.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.4N 133.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 16.9N 135.3W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N 140.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":24,"Date":"2005-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAD ERODED THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF KENNETH OVERNIGHT...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nDEPICTS A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ONLY\r\nT3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS\r\nSTILL TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nONLY BEEN LOWERED TO A CONSERVATIVE 65 KT AND KENNETH REMAINS A\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF PERSISTANT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nAND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nREASONING AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/2. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE HIGH\r\nMOVES FURTHER TO THE EAST...AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD\r\nFROM THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER...A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION\r\nSHOULD OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RE-ADJUSTED\r\nINITIAL POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 13.2N 131.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.3N 131.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.8N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.5N 133.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 15.2N 134.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 135.4W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":25,"Date":"2005-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nA CURVED BAND HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER OF\r\nKENNETH DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE CYCLONE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND 65 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE...\r\nKENNETH HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWEAKENS THE STORM ON A SLOWER TREND THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/2. THE SOUTHWEST DRIFT SEEN\r\nEARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...AND KENNETH HAS NOW RESUMED\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER KENNETH TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS\r\nTHE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 13.1N 131.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.3N 132.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.8N 132.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 133.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 134.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 18.5N 142.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":26,"Date":"2005-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nA 1943Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS\r\nBECOME DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION. EARLIER SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE SHEARED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT\r\nDEPICTS 20 TO 30 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 KT TO 65 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nWEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AS KENNETH CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nWITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS AGREES WITH THE SHIPS\r\nAND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/3. THE INTERMITTENT SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nDRIFTS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING OVER THE\r\nPAST 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- LEVEL PERIPHERAL\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN JOVA AND KENNETH. THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE AND THE GFDN SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LAYER HIGH TO THE\r\nNORTH OF KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING\r\nMECHANISM. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WITHIN THE LOW\r\nLEVEL TRADE FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BIT SLOWER...AND FOLLOWS A\r\nBLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 13.5N 131.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.7N 131.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 14.3N 132.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.9N 132.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.3N 133.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.7N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":27,"Date":"2005-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER RAGGED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...IS\r\nCONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 0320Z QUIKSCAT\r\nAMBIGUITY ANALYSIS...SINCE THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM\r\n45 KT TO 55 KT...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS DECREASING TO 35 KT AND 45 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARDS...SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nKENNETH TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/3. KENNETH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH DURING THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS...THEN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW\r\nLEVEL TRADE FLOW AS A WEAKENED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nSLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 13.6N 131.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.9N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 133.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 15.4N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.7N 134.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":28,"Date":"2005-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT KENNETH IS MOVING A LITTLE\r\nFASTER...320/6.  A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...BUT IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW LONG THIS WILL BE THE\r\nDECISIVE STEERING FEATURE.  THE GFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER\r\nLOW AND/OR THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX WILL MOVE WESTWARD\r\nAND BEGIN TO ERODE THIS RIDGE.  THE GFS RESPONDS BY PULLING KENNETH\r\nNORTHWARD UNDER THIS LOW...AND THE UKMET SHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS KEEPS\r\nKENNETH UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AND DRIVES THE CYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS BUT\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 03Z HAD A 50 KT VECTOR.  BASED ON THIS\r\nAND THE FACT THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINTAINED...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KT.  THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AT THIS TIME...AND WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM.  THEREFORE KENNETH MAY BE SLOW TO SPIN\r\nDOWN BEFORE COOLER WATERS ARE REACHED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 14.4N 132.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 14.9N 132.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.5N 133.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.9N 133.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 134.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 18.0N 136.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":29,"Date":"2005-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...\r\nWITH THE GFS SHOWING NO FURTHER WESTWARD MOTION AND THEN A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD PATH AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION OF MAX.\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND UKMET KEEP KENNETH MOVING WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE.  WITH MAX LOSING DEEP CONVECTION AND FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN QUICKLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nUKMET/NOGAPS SCENARIO...ALBEIT WITH A SLOWER WESTWARD PROGRESSION.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NORTH OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH ALTHOUGH LIMITED IS STILL SHOWING SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON THE EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT 50 KT VECTOR AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS DIAGNOSING A FAIR AMOUNT OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR FROM THE GFS FIELDS...ALTHOUGH ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS\r\nEVIDENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE\r\nINTENSIFICATION FACTOR IS THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  A SLOW\r\nDECAY IS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS SLOW AS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH WAS\r\nBASED ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 14.9N 133.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.6N 135.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 136.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":30,"Date":"2005-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIAL EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE BANDING. APPARENTLY...SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nCAUSING THIS CLOUD PATTERN. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45\r\nKT...BASED ON THE DVORAK T- NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND TAFB. THE UW-CIMSS\r\nSHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 10 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM..AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nDEFINED.  HOWEVER... THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING WITHIN A\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO BECOME A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/6. KENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND IS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE UKMET/NOGAPS/FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDN.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 14.9N 133.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.2N 134.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 135.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 136.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 15.7N 136.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N 137.9W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 16.0N 140.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":31,"Date":"2005-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B OVERPASS DEPICT THAT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND OVER THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS UPPER LEVEL\r\nWINDS SUGGEST IMPROVED VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT\r\nFROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES. THE GFDL NOW SUGGESTS GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A\r\nHURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL INDICATE A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...HOWEVER...IF THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPROVE...THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED MORE\r\nTOWARD THE STRENGTHENING GFDL SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN SSM/I OVERPASS INDICATE THAT KENNETH\r\nHAS...PERHAPS TEMPORARILY...INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED...280/8.\r\nKENNETH SHOULD SLOWLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID- LAYER\r\nFLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM\r\nTEXAS/MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nGATHERED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nREFLECT A NORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT...INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM MAX. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SUGGEST\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT...WITH VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND HEDGES\r\nTOWARD THE LATTER CLUSTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 15.2N 135.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 136.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.7N 136.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.8N 137.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 138.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 140.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":32,"Date":"2005-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE APPARENT CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH\r\nOVERNIGHT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...OR 55 KT FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES...BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHERE THE CENTER IS BEFORE\r\nADJUSTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS\r\nLOCATED NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS IS IMPARTING SOME NORTHERLY\r\nOR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW LAYER.  THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE ALSO APPEARS TO BE RATHER DRY.  UNDERNEATH THE WATER IS\r\nSTILL WARM...HOWEVER...AND THESE COMPETING FACTORS ARGUE FOR\r\nRELATIVELY MODEST INTENSITY CHANGES.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF 280/8 IS BASED ON CONTINUITY...AS THERE HAVE\r\nBEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES AND THE CENTER CANNOT BE SEEN IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...\r\nWITH THE GFDL/GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REFLECTING A NORTH TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DRIFT AS KENNETH INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN TAKING KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED RIDGE. THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH...BUT\r\nSLOWER THAN...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 15.4N 135.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 136.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.7N 137.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 137.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 138.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":33,"Date":"2005-09-22 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS KENNETH IS A WELL-DEVELOPED\r\nTROPICAL STORM WITH AN ORGANIZED OUTFLOW PATTERN. A 1559Z SSMI\r\nMICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMED THE CIRCULATION CENTER FOUND EARLIER AND\r\nONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTED WAS NEEDED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KT\r\nIN ACCORD WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAB AND\r\nSAB. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING SOME NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR ON THE CYCLONE. DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE WATERS REMAIN ABOVE\r\n26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND THE STORM CONTINUES TO HOLD ITS OWN. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...CALLS FOR KENNETH TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WITH SLOW WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nDIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL/GFS KEEPING A MEANDERING CYCLONE CLOSE TO\r\nITS CURRENT LOCATION WITH AN EVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE REMNANTS\r\nOF MAX. HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE KENNETH ON A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION BEING STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKES KENNETH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS\r\nBUT IS SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS/UKMET SOLUTION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 15.8N 136.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 136.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.1N 137.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 138.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 139.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 140.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":34,"Date":"2005-09-23 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH. CURRENTLY...KENNETH IS LOCATED\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING\r\nLEVEL FLOW. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE CONSENSUS\r\n3.5 OR 55 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER\r\nTHE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH A\r\nTROPICAL STORM DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS. THE GFDL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS AN OUTLIER AS IT STRENGTHENS KENNETH TO\r\nA HURRICANE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENS\r\nIT BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE OTHER\r\nMODELS TRACK IT WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS FOR CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH FOLLOWS THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...NOGAPS...UKMET AND CONU. KENNETH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE\r\nTHE SYSTEM WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/KRAUTKRAMER/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 15.5N 136.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 136.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.8N 137.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 138.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 139.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 16.1N 142.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":35,"Date":"2005-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS DETERMINED THAT THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION WAS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED.  A SSMI OVERPASS FROM 0522 UTC REVEALED A SOMEWHAT\r\nSHEARED SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SW\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES \r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/3 KT. STEERING CURRENTS\r\nREMAIN RATHER WEAK AND THEY MAY ACTUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER. A WEAK\r\nEAST TO WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT IS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES\r\nSOUTHEAST WELL WEST OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE OF THE WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL/GFS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE UKMET\r\nAPPEARS AN OUTLINER IN TRACKING THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A FORWARD SPEED OF 3-4 KT AND IS\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK ALSO\r\nSHOWS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IN THE LONGER RANGER AS\r\nNORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS MAY STEER KENNETH IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND WILL MAINTAIN KENNETH AS A 55 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE CURRENT SHEAR COULD LESSEN IN 24-36 HOURS WHICH COULD\r\nALLOW KENNETH TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 16.0N 136.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.2N 136.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 137.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 138.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 138.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 140.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 15.8N 141.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N 143.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":36,"Date":"2005-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n\r\nA 1018Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED BOTH A LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION...KENNETH IS CLEARLY BEING AFFECTED BY\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION... AND CURRENT DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 55 KT...WHICH\r\nIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/2 KT. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF KENNETH IS BECOMING FURTHER ERODED AND CONSEQUENTLY THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW IS ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. WITHOUT ANY DOMINANT MID-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL/GFS/NOGAPS MOVING KENNETH SLOWLY TO THE NORTH OR MOVING\r\nKENNETH AROUND IN A LOOP. THE UKMET REMAINS THE OUTLINER AND\r\nCONTINUES TO TRACK THE STORM QUICKLY TO THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS A VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF 2-3 KT TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY\r\nAT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. \r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SLOW DECREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH AND WILL MAINTAIN\r\nKENNETH AS A 55-KT TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 16.1N 137.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.2N 137.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 138.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 138.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.5N 139.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N 140.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":37,"Date":"2005-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN PULSATING MARGINAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nAFFECTED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  USING ROUGHLY THE MEAN OF DVORAK\r\nT- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS ONLY FORECAST TO\r\nLAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND SINCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST\r\nMAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/4 KT. CURRENTLY A WEAK\r\nRIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING A PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF KENNETH TO\r\nERODE AS A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NORTH\r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS...KEEPING STEERING CURRENTS WEAK. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT AN ANTICYLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH COULD INDUCE A\r\nSLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED IN RESPONSE TO\r\nA SLIGHT BUILDING OF AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF KENNETH.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 15.9N 137.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 138.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.1N 138.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.1N 139.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 140.6W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 141.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N 142.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":38,"Date":"2005-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW PULSES OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO\r\nFLARE NEAR THE CENTER OF KENNETH. THE CONVECTIVE FLARE-UPS HAVE\r\nBEEN OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM SHOWS\r\nLITTLE SIGN OF WEAKENING. LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB\r\nARE 3.0...45 KTS...WHILE TAFB ESTIMATES ARE 3.5...55 KTS. RECENT\r\nNOAA POES OVERPASSES OF KENNETH YIELDED CSU-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 50 KTS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KTS\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECASTS INDICATE VERY\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF KENNETH OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. KENNETH WILL REMAIN IN A REGION OF 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SST.\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND\r\nWILL WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nKEEPS KENNETH AT 50 KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND\r\nTHEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/4. KENNETH IS LOCATED SOUTH\r\nOF A RIDGE IN A REGIME OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS SPLIT BETWEEN TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS. THE SYSTEM EITHER MEANDERS\r\nNEAR THE VICINITY OF 140W FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE MOVING DUE NORTH OR\r\nIT SLOWLY MOVES WEST-SOUTHWEST AND FINALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW EAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...THE UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS. IN THE LATER PERIOD...THE FORECAST TRACK HINTS TOWARD A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 15.9N 138.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 138.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 139.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 139.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 16.1N 141.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 16.5N 142.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":39,"Date":"2005-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0356Z SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY...MID- LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER- LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nHALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE 0342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A UNIFORMED\r\nSWATH OF 40 KT VECTORS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WINDS AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 35 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KT.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE AND SHOULD WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS KENNETH AT 40 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3. KENNETH SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nMOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITHIN A WEAK MID-\r\nLAYER STEERING FLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDN AND THE GFS\r\nAGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING\r\nMID- LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF KENNETH. THE GFDL...HOWEVER..CONTINUES TO\r\nSUGGEST AN ABRUPT TURN NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 16.0N 138.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 138.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 139.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 140.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 140.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 141.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 17.0N 142.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N 143.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":40,"Date":"2005-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THE CENTER OF KENNETH REMAINS NEAR THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3. STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nBY 36 HOURS... A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH WILL ACT TO NUDGE KENNETH\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS... THE STEERING\r\nFLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS A RIDGE TO NORTH OF\r\nKENNETH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THE STEERING\r\nPATTERNS... THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK... SO SOME ERRATIC\r\nMOTION... INCLUDING SMALL LOOPS... WILL BE POSSIBLE.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 2-5 KT IN 24-48 HOURS...\r\nSO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE KENNETH WILL\r\nSTILL BE OVER 27C SSTS. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE VERY DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE SYSTEM AT TIMES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 16.0N 138.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 16.1N 138.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 139.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.7N 140.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.7N 141.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N 142.3W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 17.3N 143.3W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N 145.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":41,"Date":"2005-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nTRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AT 24/0922Z AND 24/1034Z...\r\nRESPECTIVELY... INDICATED 50 AND 75 PERCENT EYEWALLS IN THE\r\nMID-LEVELS. ALSO... 1730Z-1830Z GOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGES BRIEFLY\r\nCONTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER... BASED\r\nON THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGERY... AND A\r\n24/1507Z NESDIS CIRA AMSU INTENSITY OF 992 MB AND 57 KT... THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nHAS ALSO IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL DUE TO A DECREASE IN\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3. THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES ALSO REVEALED THAT THE PREVIOUSLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD REDEVELOPED UNDERNEATH THE VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. AS A RESULT...THE 06Z AND 12Z BEST TRACK\r\nPOSITIONS WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD... AND THE 18Z POSITION\r\nWAS PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THE RAGGED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER POSITION...\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH. THE WEAK\r\nNORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nTROUGH SHOULD ACT TO NUDGE KENNETH SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. BY 72 HOURS\r\n... THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PINCH OFF AND\r\nDEVELOP A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACT\r\nSTEER KENNETH NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY WESTWARD. THIS SCENARIO IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPING SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN NOTED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SOONER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS WERE\r\nFORECASTING. AS SUCH... SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS NOW FORECAST\r\nSINCE THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nBETWEEN 0-5 KT THROUGH 48 HOURS. USUALLY SUCH LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS\r\nWOULD FAVOR MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION THAN INDICATED BY THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST... BUT THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY MID-LEVEL HMIDITIES OF 25-30 PERCENT AND\r\nSSTS OF 26.5-27C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL... ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 16.2N 139.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 139.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.0N 139.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.9N 141.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N 142.6W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 147.0W    45 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":42,"Date":"2005-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nLATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF KENNETH DEPICTS A SYMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT. INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS A MOSTLY ENCLOSED\r\nEYEWALL WITH A PARTIAL OPENING IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE KENNETH IS VERY LIKELY A\r\nHURRICANE OR CLOSE TO IT. LIKEWISE...THE MOST RECENT CSU-CIRA AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE YIELDS 64 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KTS WHICH MAKES KENNETH A CATEGORY ONE\r\nHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.\r\n\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATE KENNETH\r\nWILL REMAIN AT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS. THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STAYS OVER 27 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS.\r\nKENNETH WILL START TO WEAKEN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIOD AS\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND OCEAN SSTS LOWER TO 25 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPER ENSEMBLE FORECASTS KEEPING KENNETH A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HRS\r\nAND THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING IT AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE\r\nREMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/3 WHICH AMOUNTS TO A SLOW CRAWL. KENNETH\r\nSTUBBORNLY REFUSES TO MAKE IT ACROSS 140W. THE SYSTEM IS WEDGED IN\r\nWEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nAND ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. MOST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT KENNETH WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST AND\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BEYOND 72 HRS...A MID TO\r\nUPPER LEVEL LOW SETS UP NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS STARTS TO\r\nACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS\r\nTHEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 16.4N 139.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.3N 139.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.1N 140.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 16.1N 140.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 16.5N 141.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 143.1W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N 149.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":43,"Date":"2005-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KENNETH HAS A SMALL BUT\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nRECENT SSM/IS AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE\r\nUNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN 65 KT BASED ON THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF THE EYE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/3.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A BUILDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 145W BETWEEN\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII AND A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nKENNETH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY\r\nFORECASTING KENNETH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW NORTH OF KENNETH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS\r\nSCENARIO BUT STAY SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE GIVE THE HISTORY OF SLOW\r\nMOTION OF THIS STORM.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 36 HR AND THEN TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTERWARDS. \r\n\r\nKENNETH IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD AT\r\nLEAST ALLOW FOR IT TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24-36 HR. \r\nAFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nAND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\nWHILE NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE FIRST 36 HR...IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 16.5N 139.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.3N 140.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.2N 140.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 16.1N 141.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.2N 142.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 149.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":44,"Date":"2005-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n \r\nKENNETH REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE AND AN EYE HAS RECENTLY\r\nBECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT...65 KT...AND 77 KT FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT.  ALTHOUGH NO\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS CAUSE WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nKENNETH IS DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD...260/2...AS IT HAS\r\nBEEN LOCATED IN A REGION OF LIGHT STEERING WINDS BETWEEN A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH WELL TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR\r\nTHE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED\r\nSLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF KENNETH.  THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT...AND ALSO TO INCREASE THE\r\nSHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD AND\r\nSIMILAR TO IT IN THE LATTER PERIODS.  THIS IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF SLOW MOTION FOR THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 16.3N 139.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N 140.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.8N 140.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 142.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 17.5N 144.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 19.5N 147.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":45,"Date":"2005-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND AN EYE\r\nIS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...AND TAFB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS\r\nMORNING AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE CURRENT\r\nTREND IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARDS...INCREASING STABILITY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN KENNETH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE STEERING WINDS...BETWEEN A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF KENNETH...HAVE BEEN DRIVING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PREDICTED BY THE GFS TO\r\nDEVELOP TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  THIS\r\nFEATURE IS LIKELY TO TURN KENNETH TO THE RIGHT...AND INCREASE THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THAT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SYSTEM'S RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nEXCURSION.\r\n\r\nNOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 00Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL\r\nBE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 15.8N 139.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.4N 140.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.3N 141.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.4N 142.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 151.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":46,"Date":"2005-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n \r\nGOES-10 VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BUILD-UP OF CONVECTION IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE WESTERN SIDE OF KENNETH REMAINS FAIRLY\r\nDEVOID OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH\r\nSAB AND TAFB AGREE THAT KENNETH REMAINS A HURRICANE. ALSO...THE\r\nUW-CIMSS ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES AN ADJUSTED\r\nDATA-T OF 4.1 OR 65 KTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KENNETH\r\nREMAINS A 65 KT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO REMAIN A\r\nHURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS. THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS\r\nIT MOVES INTO A STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND AS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES BEYOND 48 HRS. FINALLY...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nINTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS STRONG SHEAR IMPACTS THE SYSTEM IN\r\nTHE LATER PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/3 AS KENNETH IS SET TO CROSS\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN BOUNDARY THAT STARTS AT 140W.\r\nHOWEVER... VERY RECENTLY THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING MORE\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KENNETH WILL\r\nBEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n48 HRS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM IS AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...THIS WILL MOVE KENNETH IN A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION. BEYOND 48 HRS... MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL\r\nACCELERATE KENNETH ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AS DO THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS...CONU AND GUNA... AS WELL AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nNOTE...IF KENNETH MOVES WEST OF 140W BY 06Z...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL\r\nBE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER SISKO/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 15.6N 140.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.4N 140.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.4N 141.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 15.8N 142.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 143.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.9N 146.1W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 148.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N 151.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING\r\nHOURS...AND 12Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35KT FROM TAFB AND 30KT\r\nFROM SAB RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE INITIATED ADVISORIES\r\nON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE ABOUT 400NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF TWELVE-E. AT THIS\r\nTIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER TWELVE-E OR THE DISTURBANCE TO THE\r\nEAST WILL BE THE DOMINANT CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT AN UNCERTAIN 285/04. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE FORECASTING A TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION WOULD BE STEERED\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST. IF THIS NORTHWARD FORECAST TRACK MATERIALIZES...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN ONLY TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS AND NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE CURRENT PACKAGE\r\nFOLLOWS THIS REASONING...HOWEVER DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nTRACK LATER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 12.6N 115.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.7N 115.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 13.2N 117.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 13.6N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 14.1N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND -85 DEGREES CELSIUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE.  18Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE\r\n2.5 OR 35 KT. BASED ON THE CLASSIFICATIONS AND AN IMPROVED\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE...TWELVE-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nLIDIA. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF LIDIA...INTERACTION AND/OR MERGING OF THE TWO SYSTEMS\r\nWILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS LIDIA BETWEEN 35 KT AND 45 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS. \r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/03. THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL STORM AND\r\nTHE DISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES LIDIA VERY\r\nSLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT..BUT THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY TRACK LIDIA TO THE NORTH.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 12.5N 115.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N 115.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 12.6N 116.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 12.8N 116.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 13.2N 117.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 13.7N 117.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 14.5N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 17 2005\r\n\r\nBASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT.  DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING\r\nHINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE SOME 300 N MI TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE LATTER SYSTEM MAY BE DISRUPTING SOME OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO LIDIA.  ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST...BECAUSE THE NEIGHBORING DISTURBANCE MAY CONTINUE TO\r\nINTERACT WITH THE STORM.  THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN\r\n270/4.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED...AND\r\nTHE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA IS\r\nPROBABLY NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS.  THE GFS DOES NOT\r\nINITIALIZE LIDIA PROPERLY...AND SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON THE\r\nDISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE NOGAPS RUN...WHICH...BECAUSE OF ITS INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE...\r\nAT LEAST STARTS THE STORM IN ABOUT THE CORRECT LOCATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 12.4N 116.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 12.7N 117.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.9N 117.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 13.2N 118.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 13.5N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 14.0N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-18 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n\r\nLIDIA IS NOT LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT.  IN FACT...IT IS\r\nNOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE BROADER AREA\r\nOF DISTURBED WEATHER WITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED.  AS NOTED\r\nEARLIER...DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLY BEING HINDERED BY THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED N MI TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...\r\nAND UNLESS LIDIA STARTS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED SOON...SUBSEQUENT\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE REVISED DOWNWARD.\r\n\r\nIT CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE TO FIND THE CENTER...BUT BASED ON AN\r\nEARLIER...0419Z...SSM/I OVERPASS...IT HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE EAST.  ANOTHER RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED USING VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES LATER TODAY.  FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH...MY CURRENT POSITION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOT FAR FROM WHERE SOME SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAVE BEEN OCCURRING.  THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY\r\nUNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...270/2.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT\r\nAND IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH STEERING EFFECT WILL BE INDUCED AS A\r\nRESULT OF THE INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nAS A COMPROMISE FOR NOW...A VERY SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nPREDICTED.  IT MUST BE ADMITTED...HOWEVER...THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 12.5N 115.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 12.7N 116.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 12.9N 116.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 13.1N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 13.4N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 14.0N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-18 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LIDIA HAS REDEVELOPED. DESPITE\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE IS STILL STRUGGLING TO REMAIN\r\nORGANIZED. A HELPFUL 0933Z AMSR-E PASS REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nIS SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STILL THIS\r\nPOSITION MAY NEED TO BE READJUSTED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. LIDIA IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nINFLUENCED BY A DISTURBANCE 250 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY HELP TO INFLUENCE\r\nBOTH THE FUTURE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN...AND SLOW...280/2.\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE DIVERGENT DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY\r\nBETWEEN LIDIA AND THE DISTURBANCE.  THERFORE...THE LARGE SCALE\r\nSTEERING MAY NOT HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST TRACK. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK TAKES LIDIA VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS\r\nMAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ARRIVED AND IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT LIDIA AND THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ARE POSSIBLY TRYING TO\r\nMERGE. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER LIDIA WILL REMAIN THE\r\nDOMINANT CIRCULATION OR BE OVERTAKEN BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE UNUSUAL NATURE OF\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...THE CONFIDENCE OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 12.5N 115.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 12.6N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 12.8N 116.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 13.2N 116.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 14.0N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lidia","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-18 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LIDIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REVISE THE TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR LIDIA.  NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHIRTEEN THAT HAS FORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF LIDIA IS A LARGER\r\nSYSTEM AND IT APPEARS IT IS AND WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT OF THE TWO\r\nNEARBY TROPICAL CYCLONES.  AS A RESULT...THE SMALL AND WEAKENING\r\nLIDIA IS NO LONGER MOVING WESTWARD AND HAS REVERSED COURSE...NOW\r\nBEING DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF LARGER TD 13-E. \r\nWHILE THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT\r\nLIDIA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OR BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY TD 13-E.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1800Z 13.5N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N 113.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lidia","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nBASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIDIA IS QUICKLY BEING ABSORBED\r\nINTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM MAX.  THIS ONGOING\r\nPROCESS IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER.  LATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT WEAKENING LIDIA TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSTRENGTH AT THIS TIME. THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WILL FURTHER\r\nDEGRADE LIDIA.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/08.  SINCE LIDIA IS BEING DRAWN\r\nINTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX...THE TRACK FORECAST TENDS\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX. WITHIN 24 HRS THE\r\nIDENTITY OF LIDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY ABSORBED. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 13.8N 114.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 15.7N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N 115.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lidia","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LIDIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n\r\nLIDIA HAS BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM MAX.  LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WHAT REMAINS\r\nOF LIDIA IS ESSENTIALLY A LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THE OUTER\r\nRAINBANDS OF THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF MAX.  THIS REMNANT IS IN THE\r\nPROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED.  SINCE LIDIA IS NO LONGER IDENTIFIABLE\r\nAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 14.5N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W    20 KT...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-18 18:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n11 AM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM LIDIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10\r\nKNOTS...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1800Z 15.3N 113.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.8N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 116.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 118.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N 119.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-18 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVED OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND A WELL-DEFINED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nDEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. 18Z DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON\r\nTHE ABOVE DATA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX. MAX IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION LIDIA TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. ABSORPTION OF LIDIA BY THE\r\nLARGER CIRCULATION OF MAX IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\nUNTIL THIS OCCURS...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE MINIMAL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/10. ONCE THE TWO CYCLONES\r\nBECOME ONE CIRCULATION...MAX IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS\r\nIT IS BEING STEERED BY THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FIVE\r\nDAY FORECAST PERIOD. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WHEN THE CYCLONE\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THIS FORECAST REASONING\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS MAINLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS SPECIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 15.4N 114.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.1N 116.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.1N 119.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.2N 120.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 26.5N 127.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-19 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 18 2005\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER AMSU-B 89 GHZ MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT MAX HAD\r\nABSORBED THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF LIDIA...NOW EMBEDDED IN A\r\nBANDING FEATURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF MAX. SHORTWAVE\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND A DEVELOPING BAND OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES...AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE WITHIN A MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  THEN...MAX\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24 DEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/9. A MID- LAYER RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER\r\nLOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nOVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nLIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WEST...CAUSING MAX TO\r\nTURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 15.6N 115.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.3N 116.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.4N 119.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N 121.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 22.1N 123.7W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N 131.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-19 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0405Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICT IMPROVED\r\nBANDING OVER THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT\r\nFROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE\r\nIMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS\r\nINCREASING VENTILATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...WITH A\r\nPOLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE FORECAST INTENSITY CALLS FOR FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE\r\n36 HOUR PERIOD. THEN...MAX SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER...24\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS...WATERS AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8. A MID- LAYER RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS IS STEERING MAX IN A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A DEEP- LAYER\r\nLOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nOVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nLIFT OUT WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...CAUSING MAX\r\nTO TURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFDL/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS...AND SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 16.3N 116.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 117.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 118.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.8N 121.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N 123.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF TROPICAL STORM MAX. DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND HAS WRAPPED AROUND SOUTH AND EAST OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 3.5 OR 55 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  BASED OF THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. IMPROVED OUTFLOW FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BECOME EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST TAKES MAX TO 60 KT IN 12 HOURS THEN SLOWLY\r\nWEAKENS THE CYCLONE AS IT ENCOUNTERS WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREE CELSIUS\r\nNORTH OF 18N OR 19N.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/8. A MID-LAYER RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM TEXAS SHOULD STEER MAX IN A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER\r\nANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX\r\nON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND\r\nTO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 16.7N 116.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 117.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.7N 118.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.8N 120.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOW SHOWING A BANDING EYE FEATURE WITH\r\nFAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGERY. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS RANGED FROM T4.0...65 KT...FROM TAFB AND T3.0...45\r\nKT...FROM SAB. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nINCREASED 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nFROM 1336Z THIS MORNING JUSTIFIES INCREASING BOTH THE 34 KT AND 50\r\nKT WIND RADII. DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE RESPRESENTATION ON\r\nSATELLITE...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSMALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS A 60 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT MAY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR\r\nTO REACHING MUCH COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 19N. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES\r\nIN THE FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STEER MAX IN A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER\r\nANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE STEERING MAX\r\nON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH IN THE LATER\r\nPERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.5N 117.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.7N 119.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.4N 120.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 127.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEAK BANDING-TYPE EYE...AND\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT.  MAX IS UPGRADED\r\nTO A HURRICANE ON THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT\r\nVERY STRONG...IT APPEARS THAT MAX HAS REACHED ITS MAX INTENSITY...\r\nSINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BEGINNING TO COOL AND THE\r\nSYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS...AND MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nONLY FOR A SHORT WHILE.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AS IT TRAVERSES\r\n23 DEG C WATERS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...315/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH CENTERED NEAR TEXAS.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING FARTHER\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE LEFT IS LIKELY.  BY DAYS 4-5...MAX...OR ITS REMNANT...IS LIKELY\r\nTO MOVE WEST OR SOUTH OF WEST FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 18.4N 117.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.4N 118.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 119.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 21.4N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.8N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n\r\nA RING OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED AROUND THE CENTER OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...ALMOST LIKE AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER MAX IS PROBABLY\r\nNOT A STRONG ENOUGH TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BE UNDERGOING A TRUE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 65 KT. \r\nMAX CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN...BUT IT IS\r\nBEGINNING TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS.  THUS...A WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE RAPID WEAKENING MAY\r\nOCCUR THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...320/9...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO\r\nTHE FORECAST REASONING.  MAX IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR TEXAS. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF MAX.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nWEAKENED CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS THROUGH 4 DAYS\r\nBUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AT DAY 5...AT WHICH TIME THE NOGAPS TRACK\r\nSEEMS TO HAVE ADDED AN UNREALISTICALLY TOO FAR SOUTH COMPONENT OF\r\nMOTION TO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED A BIT BASED ON THE MOST RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 19.0N 118.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 119.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N 120.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N 121.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 122.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS...\r\nFAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION HAS REMAINED AROUND THE CENTER OF MAX\r\nTHROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO T4.5 OR 77 KT WHILE AFWA REMAINS AT A\r\nT4.0 OR 65 KT. THE ABOVE INFORMATION WARRANTS BUMPING UP THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF MAX TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASED\r\nINTENSITY SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS AND MAY EVEN OCCUR\r\nSOONER ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST AS THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  MAX IS\r\nBEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF\r\nLARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN TEXAS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF MAX...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN MAX TO THE WEST IN TWO\r\nDAYS. THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE THIS WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nMAINLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 19.5N 119.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 119.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 21.4N 121.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.9N 122.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.9N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 21.8N 125.7W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 21.5N 128.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n \r\nMAX HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH BANDING FEATURES\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE DAY.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES AN ELONGATION IN THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE WITH SOME STRATACUMULUS BEGINNING TO\r\nBECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF MAX APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM AT THE PRESENT TIME. WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM\r\nBOTH AFWA AND TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT. MAX HAS\r\nNOW MOVED NORTH OF 20 DEGREES LATITUDE WHERE SSTS ARE BELOW 26\r\nDEGREE CELSIUS. THESE COOLER WATERS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN MAX\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 320/9. MAX IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT IS BEING STEERED BY THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER WESTERN\r\nTEXAS. IN TWO DAYS...ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO BUILD NORTHWEST OF MAX WHICH WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. MAX IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN FIVE DAYS...HOWEVER...THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 20.2N 119.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 20.9N 120.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.6N 121.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.8N 122.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.8N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.9N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 21.5N 128.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Max","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-21 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2005\r\n\r\nMAX HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nPROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEPICTED IN WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  HOWEVER THIS LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE...SAVE\r\nTHE LBAR MODEL...IS UNANIMOUS ON A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL 1-4 DAY FORECASTS OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE ALONG 29N. AROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS RIDGE\r\nBREAKS DOWN AS A LARGE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG 120W.  HOWEVER...BY\r\nTHAT TIME...MAX WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RAGGED EYE WITH MODERATELY COLD\r\nSURROUNDING CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT\r\nELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CALIFORNIA LOW.  CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.  MAX IS MOVING OVER 24 DEG C\r\nWATERS...AND WILL BE ENCOUNTERING EVEN COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS MAX EVEN\r\nMORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 21.1N 119.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 21.8N 120.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.1N 121.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.2N 122.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 126.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-21 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n\r\nMAX'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND\r\nEXPERIENCES SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHE EYE HAS VANISHED AND T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nDECREASING.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT THIS TIME.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS MAX\r\nMOVES OVER COOL WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nPREDICTION THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AT THE\r\nLATER FORECAST TIMES.  IF SHIPS TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT...\r\nHOWEVER...MAX WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON SSM/I AND SSM/IS IMAGES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...MAX HAS\r\nTURNED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n320/7.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED...IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nMAX...AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 21.6N 120.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.2N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.3N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.2N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 126.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-21 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS LAST NIGHT HAD A 50 KT VECTOR RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF\r\nTHE PASS...BUT ONLY A PORTION OF THE STORM WAS SAMPLED.  AVERAGING\r\nTHE CI AND T DVORAK NUMBERS ALSO GIVES ABOUT 50 KT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING AND IS LIMITED TO A\r\nCOUPLE BANDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  MAX IS OVER COOL WATERS\r\nAND CONTINUED DECAY IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES REQUIRE A MODEST ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/6.\r\nA NARROW LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN MAX MORE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 21.7N 120.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 22.1N 121.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 22.2N 122.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 124.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N 126.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-21 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS VANISHING...AND SO THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON MAX'S\r\nSTATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM WINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY...AND CONTINUED DECAY OVER COOL WATERS IS\r\nEXPECTED.  IF NO DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS...MAX COULD BE DECLARED A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/4.  12Z MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX AND BRING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THIS PRODUCES A MUCH SLOWER\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WITH A SOUTHWARD TREND LATE AS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLIES\r\nOVERSWEEP THE AREA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD\r\nAND SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 21.7N 121.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.7N 121.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.7N 122.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N 123.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 21.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-22 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2005\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER\r\nACTIVITY IS LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  MAX'S DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE NUMBERED...AS A\r\nCONTINUED SPINDOWN OVER COOL WATERS IS EXPECTED.  MAX IS FORECAST\r\nTO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nPRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED TOMORROW\r\nMORNING.\r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME QUITE WEAK AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nABOUT 290/3.  A LARGE TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS LIKELY TO\r\nKEEP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE QUITE WEAK\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS MAX WEAKENS...IT IS RESPONDING\r\nMAINLY TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...AND THERE IS ONLY AN\r\nILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A MAINLY WESTWARD DRIFT\r\nIS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWED BY LITTLE MOTION\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 21.8N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 122.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.6N 123.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 21.3N 123.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N 124.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Max","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-22 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM 0251Z SHOWED SOME VECTORS NEAR 35 KT...SO\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  MAX STILL HAS A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATERS...AND BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN A DAY OR SO.  IF NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nRETURN TO THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nMAX HAS TURNED TO A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING...AND INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/4.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AS\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MAX IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ILL-DEFINED. \r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CALL FOR A SLOW...BUT INCREASINGLY\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF...MOTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nBEYOND DAY 3...THERE IS MUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS.  GIVEN\r\nTHESE UNCERTAINTIES...AND THE LACK OF DEFINITIVE STEERING\r\nFEATURES...THE SYSTEM IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 3-5...AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS COUPLE OF FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 21.7N 121.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.6N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.4N 123.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 21.1N 124.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.7N 124.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Max","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-22 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nMAX HAS FAILED TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION SINCE 18Z\r\nYESTERDAY...SO THE SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON MAX.  THE REMNANT LOW\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4.  THE REMNANTS WILL MOVE WITH THE LOW\r\nLEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD HAVE AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 21.8N 122.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.8N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 21.1N 124.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.5N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-23 05:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n10 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2005\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE VIGOROUS\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 350 NMI SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO\r\nMEXICO HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. A\r\nLARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE TIGHT-LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AND DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nUSING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. IN ADDITION... A\r\n23/0046Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS CONTAINED SEVERAL 30-KT NON-RAINFLAGGED\r\nWIND VECTORS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WHILE THE QUIKSCAT WIND\r\nDATA WAS NEAR THE SWATH EDGE...THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD CONTINUITY\r\nWITH THE PROGRESSIVELY DECREASING WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST. WHILE\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT WINDS MAY BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER... THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING STARTED AT 30 KT SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NOT\r\nPERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07. A SMALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWAS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY ROTATING WESTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE MORE DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THIS CIRCULATION HAS\r\nSINCE WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST SIDE AND LIKELY HAS BEEN STRETCHED \r\nOUT INTO THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF PREVIOUS SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS A LARGE BUT WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMEDIUM BAM MODEL AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOTION INDICATED IN THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS SOME EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF ABOUT 10-15\r\nKT CURRENTLY AFFECTING TD-14E. HOWEVER... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR PERIOD... BEFORE\r\nINCREASING QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY AGAIN AFTER THAT. WITH THE\r\nDECREASING SHEAR AND DEPRESSION MOVING OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION AT A TYPICAL 1 T-NUMBER PER\r\n24 HOURS RATE IS FORECAST UNTIL THE INCREASING SHEAR KICKS BACK\r\nIN... AFTER WHICH SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...\r\nIF THE SHEAR ABATES THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD... THEN THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0500Z 15.1N 108.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 109.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.8N 112.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-23 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM\r\nNORMA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS SINCE INCREASED CLOSE TO THE\r\nCENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -80C. DATA T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR\r\nPATTERN ARE 35-45 KT...DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER\r\nRELATIVE TO DEEP CONVECTION... AND RAW ODT VALUES ARE 45 KT USING A\r\nCURVED BAND PATTERN AND 45-55 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN. THE RAW ODT\r\nVALUES ARE LIKELY TOO HIGH...BUT A 22/2205Z CIRA-AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND 40 KT. DUE TO\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/5. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nTRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...OR VICE VERSA\r\n...SO THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION USING\r\nNIGHTTIME IMAGERY. A LARGE BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF NORMA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MEDIUM BAM\r\nMODEL... AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL MEAN MOTION OF THE\r\nWIDELY DIVERGENT GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF 15 KT IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE 12-36 HOUR\r\nPERIOD BEFORE IT INCREASES AGAIN AFTERWARDS. WITH NORMA EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE OVER 28C-28.5C SSTS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD... AT LEAST STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES\r\nONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER... AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION\r\n... IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR HOLDS OFF THROUGH 48 HOURS... THEN NORMA\r\nCOULD BECOME A 65-KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 15.1N 109.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.6N 110.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.2N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.9N 112.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.7N 116.4W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-23 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nNORMA'S CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...SAB...\r\nAND TAFB RANGE FROM 30 TO 45 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n40 KT.  THERE IS MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE\r\nAREA...AND ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS FORECAST...AN EASTERLY\r\nSHEARING REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 72 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS SHEAR MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT SOME SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/4.  NORMA LIES TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nWEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK...THE GFS FORECASTING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THE\r\nNOGAPS PREDICTING LITTLE MOVEMENT FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED BY\r\nA GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  AS A COMPROMISE OF THIS GUIDANCE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 15.6N 109.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N 109.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.9N 110.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.7N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 111.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-23 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nBUT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST SOME STRENGTHENING.  MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEARING IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL\r\nOVER NORMA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THIS SHEAR IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/4.  CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA.  A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO\r\nAPPROACH THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2-3 DAYS...AND ERODE THE WESTERN\r\nEXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT BETWEEN A\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK AND A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD COURSE.  AS A COMPROMISE I HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST BACK\r\nTO THE LEFT SOMEWHAT...SHOWING A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST U.K.\r\nMET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 15.3N 110.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.8N 110.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 111.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 111.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-24 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS\r\nNORMA CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER EASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. OVER THE\r\nPAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nSEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THESE TWO GUIDANCE MODELS.  BY 96 HOURS NORMA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nNORMA HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE\r\nTRACK...330/3...IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  NORMA IS\r\nSOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE MOVES NORMA SLOWLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  WITH THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE MOTION OF NORMA WILL\r\nBE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON HOW CONNECTED THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nREMAINS WITH THE CONVECTION...WITH A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING THE\r\nMID-LEVEL STEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER...TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO AND TURN\r\nNORMA MORE TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 15.6N 110.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 110.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 110.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-24 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE FIXES PLACED THE CENTER OF NORMA WITHIN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...A MICROWAVE PASS AT 03Z AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z\r\nSHOW THAT IN FACT THE CENTER IS FARTHER EAST AND JUST OUTSIDE THE\r\nCONVECTION.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS HAD A 40 KT VECTOR SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SINCE THAT TIME THE SHEAR HAS REASSERTED ITSELF AND IS\r\nBLOWING THE DEEP CONVECTION WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nBUT MAY BE A LITTLE BIT HIGH.  THE SHIPS/GFS SHEAR DIAGNOSIS CALLS\r\nFOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS...AND THIS INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THAN TO THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH BRINGS NORMA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD NORMA IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MOTION REMAINS 330/3.  STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE PRESENTLY ILL-DEFINED...BUT GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS HURRICANE RITA MOVES NORTHWARD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS\r\nNORMA IS EXPECTED TO RESPOND BY MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND LET HIGH PRESSURE\r\nBUILD WESTWARD.  THIS...COUPLED WITH THE DECAY OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS WELL CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH HAS THE FASTEST INITIAL MOTION...GETS NORMA CAUGHT UP\r\nIN THE UPPER TROUGH AND TAKES IT NORTHWARD.  THE REST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE FOLLOWS THE WESTERN SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nEARLY BUT FASTER TO THE WEST LATE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 15.9N 110.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.3N 110.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.3N 112.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-24 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS INDICATE\r\nNORMA HAS MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND NOT IN\r\nTHE CENTER NEAR THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50\r\nKT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55\r\nKT FROM TAFB... 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA... AND A 24/1029Z UW-CIMSS\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 994 MB AND 50 KT.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE MICROWAVE POSITIONS... THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/05.\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF NORMA IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN WEAK... SO THE RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW MAY CAUSE SOME\r\nERRATIC MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS... STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS A STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST...\r\nWITH ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD HIGH PRESSURE\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND MEXICO THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5... THE FLOW IS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE FUTURE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH... WHICH\r\nALLOWS WEAK RIDGING TO EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NORMA. THE\r\nLATTER STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE SLOQLY\r\nWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO \r\nCONTINUE TO AFFECT NORMA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO INCREASE ABOVE THE CURRENT 20 KT\r\nVALUE. THEREFORE... THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY\r\nUNTIL NORMA REACHES COOLER WATER IN 48-72 HOURS... AFTER WHICH SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL... BUT HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL... ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS... WHICH IS WHEN THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL FORECASTS NORMA TO DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 16.4N 110.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 16.9N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.6N 111.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 112.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-24 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE NORMA HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD WHILE BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES NOTED. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD MASS... AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY TO\r\nT3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE... THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/04. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nEAST OF NORMA REMAINS WEAK... AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THAT WAY\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP NORMA MOVING IN A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION... THEN TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY\r\n48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nDIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH ASSOCIATED DOWNSTREAM\r\nRIDGING CAUSING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.\r\nAND MEXICO. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORMA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY\r\nDECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD... REACHING A MINIMUM OF\r\nABOUT 8 KT BY 120 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY CALLS\r\nFOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NORMA COULD BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE COOLER IS\r\nREACHED. BY 72 HOURS... NORMA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER 25C SSTS AND\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN. THE SHIPS MODEL IS NO LONGER\r\nDISSIPATING NORMA AFTER 72 HOURS AS IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 16.6N 110.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.1N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.9N 111.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.8N 112.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.6N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N 115.8W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-25 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2005\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED A DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM THIS EVENING... WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE GENERALLY WEAKENING CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nT NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECASTS CONTINUED EASTERLY SHEAR AT ABOUT THE SAME MAGNITUDE AS\r\nIS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM... THEREFORE LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS... FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM BEGINS MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ALMOST STATIONARY BUT SEEMS TO BE\r\nEDGING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT TWO KNOTS.  THE CONVECTION TO THE\r\nWEST SHOULD SOON START DRAGGING THE LOW LEVEL CENTER ALONG...AND\r\nTHE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SHOULD INDUCE NORMA ALONG A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nAND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST AS NORMA WEAKENS AND IS\r\nSTEERED MORE BY THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE EXPECTED TO\r\nDEVELOP TO ITS NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 16.8N 110.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.4N 111.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.3N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.2N 114.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-25 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nOVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NORMA IS EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES AND THE EXPOSED CENTER.  THIS INTENSITY IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/5.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM\r\nMEXICO ALONG 24N 120W...WITH A DIGGING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR 27N130W.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD STEER NORMA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM.  AFTER 48 HR OF SO...THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN...\r\nALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD AND TURN NORMA WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SHOW THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. \r\nIT IS MORE OR LESS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNORMAL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-25 KT EASTERLY SHEAR ACCORDING TO\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR 48-72 HR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPREVENT INTENSIFICATION AND POSSIBLY CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING.  THE\r\nSHEAR WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER 72 HR...BUT BY THAT TIME NORMA\r\nSHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE\r\nISOTHERM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER\r\nWATERS.  THIS FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE WEAKER SHIPS AND THE\r\nSTRONGER GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 17.4N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 111.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N 112.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.9N 113.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.7N 114.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-25 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n \r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE CENTER\r\nESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF\r\nPOORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SHEAR IS BEING IMPARTED BY\r\nA LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF NORMA...AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS PREDICT A CONTINUATION OF THIS REGIME FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SOON.  IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENTLY\r\nDISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...NORMA MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN\r\nSHOWN BELOW.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 320/7.  STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED\r\nBY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER TEXAS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE PREDICTS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING WESTWARD FROM THIS\r\nHIGH...AS A TROUGH NEAR CALIFORNIA LIFTS OUT AND WEAKENS.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT...TO TURN\r\nMORE WESTWARD IN 3-5 DAYS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 18.0N 111.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.6N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.6N 113.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.3N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 21.0N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-09-25 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE CENTER LOCATION IS NOT YET OBVIOUS.\r\nMY BEST ESTIMATE...USING THE LOW CLOUD LINES...IS THAT IT IS TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT OBSCURED BY\r\nCIRRUS CLOUDS...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME RECENT SSM/I\r\nIMAGERY.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FIXES FROM\r\nTHE VARIOUS AGENCIES.  NORMA REMAINS A POORLY-ORGANIZED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEARING...DUE TO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST...THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT NOT AS RAPIDLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nNORMA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nSOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WORKING BEST TRACK HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD...320/6.  A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY STEERING CURRENT.  THIS REGIME IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTERWARDS...A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE LEFT IS LIKELY...DUE TO BOTH A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE AND INCREASED STEERING OF THE WEAKENED SYSTEM BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS QUITE SIMILAR TO ITS PREDECESSOR.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 18.2N 112.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N 113.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 19.9N 114.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 20.7N 115.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.3N 116.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.5N 118.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-09-26 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2005\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY CIRRUS AND STILL\r\nAPPEARS TO BE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... WHICH\r\nHAS LESSENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THERE IS ONE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE 35-45 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 40 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM\r\nORGANIZING. EVEN THOUGH NORMA MIGHT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO TO WHERE THE SHEAR IS A LITTLE WEAKER... OCEAN TEMPERATURES\r\nWILL ONLY GET COOLER ALONG THE WAY. GRADUAL WEAKENING APPEARS\r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES AN EVEN FASTER PACE OF DECLINE\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7... STILL NORTHWESTWARD BUT\r\nWITH A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THE\r\nCURRENT STEERING IS PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS.  THIS RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS A LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE CALIFORNIA MOVES INLAND.  AS A\r\nRESULT... A WEAKENING NORMA SHOULD BE FORCED TO THEN TURN\r\nWESTWARD... ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER AND STEERED\r\nINCREASINGLY BY THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SINCE\r\nTHE MODELS MIGHT HAVE A SLIGHT EAST BIAS FOR A SYSTEM UNDER\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THIS TRACK IS ALSO A BIT SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... LEANING MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFS THAN THE NOGAPS... SINCE THE LATTER DEPICTS WHAT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG OF A CIRCULATION FOR WHAT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE A DEPRESSION AND EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 18.7N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.4N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N 114.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 21.1N 117.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-09-26 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005\r\n \r\nAN SSMI OVERPASS NEAR 04Z SUGGESTS THE CENTER MAY BE A LITTLE NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT HAS\r\nBEEN MADE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7. THE CURRENT STEERING IS\r\nBEING PROVIDED BY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND THEN BUILD\r\nWESTWARD. BY THAT TIME...NORMA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND LOW\r\nPRESSURE CURRENTLY OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LARGELY\r\nBECAUSE OF THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS NEAR THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE PAST FEW IR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED MAY BE INCREASING...BUT I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR\r\nCONFIRMATION BY SUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE DATA BEFORE MAKING SUCH AN\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nWHICH HAS DIMINISHED SHARPLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z RANGED FROM 35 TO 45 KT.  A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 01Z JUST MISSED THE CENTER...BUT THERE WERE SOME 40 KT\r\nVECTORS DOWNWIND OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND SO THE INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE PASS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE WIND RADII NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED.  MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE ORGANIZATION\r\nOF NORMA...AND WITHIN ANOTHER 24 HOURS COOLER WATERS BECOME AN\r\nADDITIONAL DRAG ON THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  IF NORMA IS INDEED MOVING MORE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OR FASTER THAN PRESUMED HERE THEN DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW COULD OCCUR IN AS LITTLE AS 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 19.4N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N 115.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.5N 116.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 117.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norma","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-09-26 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND IS NOW OCCURRING IN ONLY A FEW PATCHES NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND OVER PARTS THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THIS\r\nDECREASE IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE LAPSE RATES.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES\r\nTO BE AN INHIBITING INFLUENCE AS WELL.  NORMA APPEARS TO BE\r\nWEAKENING MORE RAPIDLY THAN EARLIER FORECAST...BUT IT REMAINS TO BE\r\nSEEN WHETHER THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL COMEBACK. \r\nIF THIS DOES NOT OCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER\r\nTHAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST.  GIVEN THE CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...310/7...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST.  A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE WESTERN TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER\r\nCONTINUES TO STEER NORMA NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS WESTWARD AND TO THE NORTH OF\r\nNORMA.  IN 3-5 DAYS...THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE SHOULD BE THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nCENTERED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NORMA'S REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 19.6N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.2N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 116.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 21.2N 117.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norma","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-09-26 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005\r\n\r\nSOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-DEVELOPED NEAR AND SOUTH OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE BANDING AND\r\nOVERALL THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING.  USING THE MEAN\r\nOF DVORAK T- AND C.I.- NUMBERS...WHICH IS ROUTINELY DONE AT THE NHC\r\nFOR WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...\r\nGIVES A CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  NORMA IS DOWNGRADED\r\nTO A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES...SOME MORE FLAREUPS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE\r\nSHOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  NORMA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...315/8.  TRACK GUIDANCE AND\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES.  NORMA SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWING THE FLOW\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE...AND THEN\r\nTHE WEAKENING REMNANT CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD AS ITS\r\nSTEERING BECOMES MOST INFLUENCED BY FLOW IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 20.6N 115.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 21.2N 115.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N 116.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 21.5N 117.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 21.3N 118.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norma","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-09-27 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2005\r\n \r\nNORMA HAD CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SOME DEEP CONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER FOR MOST OF THE DAY... UNTIL VERY RECENTLY WHEN\r\nTHE BURST THAT BEGAN AT ABOUT 21Z WENT ON A RAPID DECLINE.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C SST ISOTHERM... SO THIS WANING\r\nCONVECTION MIGHT BE THE LAST GASP FOR NORMA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 30 KT REMAINS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE 00Z DVORAK T AND CI\r\nNUMBERS... BUT IT IS NOT LIKELY TO STAY THIS STRONG FOR MUCH\r\nLONGER.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR... COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES... AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nINDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... AND IN 12 TO 24 HOURS NORMA WILL\r\nPROBABLY LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nPACE... WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/7.  WHILE THE\r\nCURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER TEXAS... NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN\r\nWESTWARD TOMORROW AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.  ONCE THE\r\nCONVECTION COMPLETELY DIES OFF... THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE\r\nREMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... JUST A LITTLE SLOWER LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 21.0N 115.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N 116.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 21.7N 117.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N 118.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norma","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-09-27 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2005\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 02Z HAD ONE LONELY RAIN-FLAGGED 30 KT\r\nVECTOR...AND SINCE THAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISAPPEARED.\r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT.\r\nWITH NORMA HAVING CROSSED THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...LITTLE OR NO\r\nADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.  NORMA NO LONGER HAS THE\r\nCONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY.  THE REMNANT LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY\r\nSPIN DOWN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9. WHILE THE CURRENT STEERING RESULTS FROM\r\nTHE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER\r\nTEXAS...NORMA WILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD LATER TODAY AS THIS RIDGE\r\nBUILDS TO ITS NORTH. IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CONVECTION IS\r\nDISSIPATING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW DOMINATED BY THE NORTHEASTERLIES\r\nWILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT LOW SOUTHWESTWARD. THE\r\nGFS COMPLETELY DISSIPATES THE CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF NORMA PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 21.9N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 22.4N 117.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.4N 118.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 21.8N 119.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-09-28 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nMANZANILLO WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z.  THERE IS PLENTY OF\r\nROTATION IN THE MID LEVELS...AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD \r\nAREA OF SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THE TWO DO NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nEXACTLY CO-LOCATED.  NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER IS ON OR NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS\r\nTIME...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CONSIDER THE\r\nSYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...USUALLY UNCERTAIN FOR FORMATIVE SYSTEMS...IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 270/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT\r\nTHE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS LESS WELL DEFINED.  THIS RIDGE DOES NOT\r\nEXTEND WESTWARD VERY FAR INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE FORECASTING A SERIES OF TROUGHS TO APPROACH THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST AN\r\nOVERALL MOTION SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF A CLIMATOLOGICAL\r\n285/11-TYPE TRACK.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS RATHER DIVERGENT...WITH THE\r\nGFS TAKING A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST WITH THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST WITH A MUCH SLOWER INITIAL\r\nMOTION.  GIVEN THE PRESENT SHEARED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...I\r\nTHINK THE GFS SOLUTION IS TOO RAPID TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ATTEMPTS TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z GFDL RUN...THE LAST RUN NOT TO DISSIPATE THE\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY EASE UP OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST ROUGHLY\r\nIN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 17.0N 105.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.1N 106.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 108.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-09-28 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EVEN\r\nTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SOMEWHAT.\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED AND NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATE\r\nTHE SURFACE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED. AT 1200Z... SHIP\r\nMCDW9 LOCATED 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND SHIP MKYJ8 LOCATED 120 NMI WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER REPORTED A NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 KT AND A PRESSURE OF\r\n1006.8 MB. THESE OBSERVATIONS... ALONG WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1005 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE A BROAD EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD\r\nKEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...\r\nAND POSSIBLY EVEN DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST BY\r\n120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE TIMING AND\r\nDEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE\r\nFASTEST AND STRONGEST WITH ERODING THE RIDGE...AND THOSE MODELS\r\nRECURVE THE CYCLONE ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 96-120 HOURS. IN\r\nCONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND THE NOGAPS MODELS ARE\r\nSLOWER AND WEAKER WITH EROSION OF THE RIDGE. GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT DATA OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE RATHER WEAK\r\nLOOKING APPEARANCE OF THE TROUGH IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ALSO\r\nLEANS CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TURNS THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT\r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E VERY WELL... SO THERE\r\nMAY BE SOME SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20 KT AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL AFTER 36 HOURS. IN THE 48-84 HOUR TIME\r\nFRAME... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS... WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR SINCE THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL ALSO BE OVER 28-29C SSTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER... WHICH MAY\r\nBRING ABOUT SOME SLOW WEAKENING. HOWEVER... IF THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nSLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST... IT WOULD REMAIN OVER 27-29C SSTS\r\n... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE TOO LOW IN THE\r\nLATER PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 48H AND 72H.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 17.0N 105.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.9N 108.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 18.7N 109.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.7N 111.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 24.5N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-09-28 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15-E REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIN TERMS OF THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD... AS NOTED IN 28/1302Z\r\nQUIKSCAT WIND DATA. EVEN THOUGH THE DEPTH AND AMOUNT OF CONVECTION\r\nHAS DECREASED SHARPLY SINCE THIS MORNING... THERE REMAINS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A\r\nCONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM\r\nALL THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL REMAINS FAIR TO GOOD IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS... EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/06. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nA LITTLE DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN AS A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE\r\nBEEN NOTED ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN\r\nQUADRANTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST FEW IMAGES... HOWEVER... SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION CENTER HAS PULLED UNDERNEATH THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CENTER... AND THAT WAS THE FEATURE USED TO\r\nLOCATE THE CENTER OF TD-15E FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE BROAD EAST-WEST\r\nORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TD-15E MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION. AFTERWARDS...  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL\r\nMODEL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM THE FAR NORTH PACIFIC AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE RIDGE. AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR A CLOSED LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 TO 120 HOURS...\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY\r\nRESULT IN LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\n96-120 HOURS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS REMAINS THE\r\nTIMING AND DEGREE OF EROSION OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL ROCKETS\r\nTHE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND HAS IT OVER SOUTHERN UTAH IN 120 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS CLEARLY THE OUTLIER MODEL AT THIS TIME SINCE THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH SLOWER AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OR\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD-15E QUITE WELL AT 12Z...  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... ONLY SLOWER\r\nDUE TO CONTAMINATION CAUSED BY THE MUCH FASTER GFDL MODEL. \r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DECREASING AND IS NOW ABOUT 15 KT\r\nFROM THE NORTHEAST.  BY 48 HOURS... THE SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO\r\nDECREASE TO 5 KT OR LESS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 28-29C SSTS.  AS\r\nA RESULT... INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IS FORECAST...\r\nWHICH REMAINS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... BUT SIMILAR\r\nTO THE GFDL MODEL. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HOWEVER... DUE TO\r\nTHE SHARP SST-GRADIENT THAT EXISTS WITHIN 100 NMI OF THE WEST COAST\r\nOF BAJA CALFIFORNIA... JUST A SLIGHT DEVIATION RIGHT/LEFT OF TRACK\r\nCOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER/LOWER INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS\r\nTHROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 17.1N 106.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.6N 107.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 18.3N 109.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 19.2N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 111.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 21.7N 112.9W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 23.5N 114.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 26.0N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-09-29 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2005\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E IS ALMOST TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. \r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING WEST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PRODUCE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA.  ADDITIONALLY...A SHIP 125 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER REPORTED 30 KT.  SINCE THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES IS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A\r\n30 KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/5.  THE CYCLONE IS ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS\r\nWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ALONG 26N.  THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...\r\nAND CANADIAN MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN IN 36-48 HR\r\nAS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THESE\r\nMODELS CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...PASSING NEAR OR OVER BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...THE ECMWF... AND THE\r\nGFDN KEEP ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH\r\nTO MOVE THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM\r\nLAND.  SINCE EVEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OFF\r\nTHE CALIFORNIA COAST...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/\r\nGFDL/NOGAPS/CANADIAN SOLUTION...CALLING FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nBY 24-36 HR AND A NORTHWARD MOTION BY 96-120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF\r\nTHE NORTHWARD-POINTING GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-20 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION APPROACHES THE\r\nAXIS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nBEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 72 HR\r\nOR SO.  THE GFDL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24\r\nHR...WHICH LOOKS A LITTLE UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL CALLS FOR MUCH LESS INTENSIFICATION...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nOF ABOUT 50 KT IN 60-72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BLEND THE\r\nGFDL AND SHIPS...CALLING FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72 HR.  AFTER 72 HR...COOL SSTS\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  AS MENTIONED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AFTER 72 HR THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING\r\nALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOTHERMS.  THUS...ANY DEVIATION FROM\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN HOW WARM/COOL\r\nTHE WATER IS UNDER THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE REVISED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED\r\nON THE SHIP REPORT.\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 17.1N 107.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 17.5N 108.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.2N 110.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 20.1N 111.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-09-29 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0130Z SUPPORTED AT LEAST 30 KT...WITH A COUPLE OF\r\nUNCERTAIN 35 KT VECTORS IN CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. \r\nSINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nOR VERY NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE 6Z CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.5...OR 35 KT.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES THAT SUGGEST A CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MY\r\nESTIMATED POSTION...BUT THESE MAY BE REFLECTING SWIRLS GENERATED IN\r\nTHE CONVECTION THAT THEN ROTATE COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND A BROADER\r\nCIRCULATION.  AT NIGHT I WOULD PREFER TO MAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK THAN JUMP ON ONE OF THESE SWIRLS.  EVEN\r\nSO...THE TRACK DOES APPEAR TO HAVE TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/5.  OTIS REMAINS ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS\r\nWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE\r\nREPLACED BY A TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THAT OTIS WILL TURN NORTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF OTIS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH CONSISTENCY\r\nFROM RUN TO RUN.  THE NOGAPS...WHICH HAD BEEN ONE OF THE SLOWER\r\nMODELS PREVIOUSLY...IS NOW ONE OF THE FASTEST...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH HAD BEEN THE FASTEST...IS NOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nPACK.  SUCH ERRATIC BEHAVIOR IS A GOOD REASON TO STAY NEAR THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  ONLY THE 12Z EUROPEAN MODEL TURNS OTIS\r\nAWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.  \r\n\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OTIS...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nIS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A SOMEWHAT FASTER PACE\r\nAFTER THAT.  BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR AND/OR COOLER SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 17.5N 107.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.9N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 19.7N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N 111.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.1N 112.6W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 24.5N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-09-29 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2005\r\n \r\nA LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C\r\nDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A\r\n29/0912Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND\r\nTHAT WRAPPED MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER... WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF THE CONVECTIVE BAND. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT\r\n12Z WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. SINCE THAT\r\nTIME... HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE BECOME LESS DISTINCT. THEREFORE... THE INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSIONS... THE EXACT CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE. THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E OVERPASS DID DEPICT A NICE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION... BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE\r\nSWIRLS GENERATED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST THAT HAVE THEN\r\nROTATED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE MID-LEVEL AND\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTERS NOTED IN MICROWAVE DATA... WHICH ALSO MAINTAINS\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK. OTIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nORIENTED EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL THE MODELS TO BE ERODED BY A SOUTHWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD ACROSS\r\nBAJA BY 120 HOURS. ONLY THE 29/00Z ECMWF MODEL TURNS OTIS AWAY FROM\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS... MINUS THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nNORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ABATE ACROSS\r\nOTIS AND THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER... SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW\r\nLAYER APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND LIKELY WILL NOT\r\nWEAKEN FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS. BUT WITH THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\n...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR... AND SSTS OF 28-29C BENEATH THE STORM...\r\nAT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL COOLER WATER IS\r\nREACHED AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS... WHICH BRING OTIS UP TO 63 KT AND 74\r\nKT... RESPECTIVELY... BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 17.9N 108.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.7N 109.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 110.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.1N 111.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 20.8N 111.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 21.9N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 24.5N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 114.0W    35 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-09-29 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005\r\n \r\nA WELL-DEFINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN\r\nROTATING NORTH AND WESTWARD AT 20-25 KT AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND RESULTANT MOTION ARE BASED MAINLY ON THE LOCATION OF\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM SAB... 45 KT FROM TAFB... AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB... RESPECTIVELY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN\r\nUW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 996 MB AND 52 KT AT 29/1545Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE STARTING\r\nTO PULL UNDERNEATH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. AS\r\nSUCH... A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. OVERALL... THE FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING\r\nREMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.\r\nOTIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nAND BAJA CALIFORNIA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\nA SHOTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE RIDGE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW\r\nOTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS AND POSSIBLY MAKE LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nNORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DECREASE AND... AS A\r\nRESULT... THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME MORE\r\nCIRCULAR. A 25/1545Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED A 60 PERCENT MID-LEVEL\r\nEYEWALL HAD FORMED...SO AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION\r\nSHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT OTIS\r\nWILL BE OVER 28.5-29C SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS... A\r\nBRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR. BY AROUND 72\r\nHOURS... OTIS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING... WITH FASTER WEAKENING\r\nEXPECTED AFTER 96 HOURS WHEN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL IS FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 18.9N 109.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 19.4N 110.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 111.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.8N 111.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 21.5N 112.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 23.3N 113.1W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 26.0N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W    35 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-09-30 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2005\r\n \r\nOTIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM SPOT.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A\r\nJUST RECEIVED SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWING A FORMATIVE EYE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/11...UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT IS\r\nUNCLEAR HOW MUCH MOTION IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AS OTIS\r\nCONSOLIDATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF OTIS ALONG 26N...WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UTAH AND NEAR 33N126W.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANDIAN\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN...WITH OTIS BEING GRADUALLY\r\nTURNED NORTHWARD BY THE WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGER\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BY\r\n72 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT OTIS\r\nWILL NOT CONNECT WITH THE TROUGHS AND TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nWITH TIME.  THE MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT THAN THEY WERE 6 HR\r\nAGO...AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FAR ENOUGH\r\nTO THE LEFT TO KEEP OTIS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER...SINCE\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...THERE IS A RELUCTANCE TO MOVE THE FORECAST TRACK MUCH TO\r\nTHE LEFT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THE\r\nFIRST 48-72 HR ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HR IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER OTIS...AND CONDITION NOW APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STORM REACHES COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR OTIS\r\nTO PEAK AT 75 KT IN 36-48 HR...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALLS FOR A\r\nPEAK OF 76 KT IN 48 HR...AND THE GFDL CALLS FOR A 68 KT PEAK IN\r\nABOUT 30 HR.  GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS\r\nEVENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A STRONGER STORM THAN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE WITH A PEAK OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 36 HR.  OTIS COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nOTIS WILL BE MOVING ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE\r\nISOTHERMS AFTER 36-48 HR...AND SMALL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCOULD RESULT IN LARGE CHANGES IN SSTS UNDER THE STORM LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS\r\nOFFSHORE...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE\r\nCENTER NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. \r\nTHUS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH ARE BEING\r\nISSUED AT THIS TIME.  INTERESTS ELSEWHERE NEAR THE BOTH COASTS OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OTIS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 19.9N 109.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.8N 110.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 21.6N 111.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 22.2N 112.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 22.7N 112.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 24.5N 113.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-09-30 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005\r\n \r\nOTIS HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WHICH CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON\r\nCONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS...MAKING OTIS A HURRICANE. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SHEAR IS LOW...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE A\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS ONLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA AND RADAR FROM LOS CABOS SUGGEST THAT OTIS IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FORCE OTIS TO MOVE ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHWEST...PARALLELING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER\r\n...OTIS SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND APPROACH THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS WHICH BRING OTIS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL KEEPS THE\r\nHURRICANE PARALLELING AND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OVER COOLER WATERS. \r\n  \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.\r\nHOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER\r\nWINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR\r\nSATURDAY. NO CHANGES IN WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 20.7N 110.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N 110.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 22.4N 111.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 25.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 27.5N 114.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 30.5N 114.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-09-30 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-COVERED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... BUT THE EYE\r\nSTRUCTURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB... 65 KT\r\nFROM AFWA... AND AN AVERAGE ODT VALUE OF T4.5/77 KT OVER THE PAST\r\n1.5 HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND OUTFLOW\r\nIS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07. OTIS MADE A SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nJOG DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS... BUT THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE A\r\nTEMPORARY MOTION AND WAS LIKELY DUE TO THE RE-ALIGNMENT OF THE MID-\r\nAND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS. A 30/0532Z TRMM OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS TILTED ABOUT 20 NMI TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL EYE... BUT RADAR DATA AND A 30/1205Z AMSU\r\nOVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TWO CIRCULATIONS ARE NOW VERTICALLY\r\nSTACKED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEAKENING WESTERN PORTION OF A LARGE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT... HOWEVER... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THE UPPER-LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS\r\nHANDLED. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET MODELS DROP THE LOW\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF OTIS... WHICH RESULTS IN\r\nTHE HURRICANE BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. IN CONTRAST... THE GFDL... CANADIAN...\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER-LOW AND BUILD THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF OTIS... CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY\r\nFROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE LATEST TREND IN WATER VAPORY IMAGERY AND\r\nIN UW-CIMSS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LOW\r\nIS STRONGER... DIGGING SOUTHWARD... AND THAT MORE RIDGING IS\r\nOCCURRING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE UPPER-LOW. ALSO... 500 MB\r\nHEIGHTS HAVE DECREASED MORE THAN 40 METERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS\r\nALONG THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS AND OVER SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA. ALL OF THIS WOULD TEND TO SUPPORT THE GFS-NOGAPS-UKMET\r\nSOLUTION... AND THAT 3-MODEL CONSENSUS WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.\r\n\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nSINCE OTIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 5 KT OR LESS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.\r\nHOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 21.1N 110.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 21.8N 111.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 22.5N 111.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.5N 112.4W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 24.5N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 26.0N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W    45 KT...INLAND CENTRAL BAJA\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 31.5N 112.0W    30 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-09-30 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY... AND ALSO IN RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS\r\nMEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB... 90 KT FROM\r\nSAB... 77 KT FROM AFWA... AND A 30/1059Z UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 975 MB AND 80 KT. THE MOST RECENT RAW ODT VALUES HAVE\r\nINCREASED SHARPLY TO T5.4/99 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/07. NOT TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN\r\nRECORD... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HOWEVER... THE 12Z MODELS...\r\nINCLUDING THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS... ARE NOW SIMILAR TO THE \r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECASTS... AND THE CURRENT AND PREVIOUS\r\nGFS... NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODEL RUNS IN RECURVING OTIS SLOWLY NORTH\r\nACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS... AND THEN \r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS\r\nLIE MAINLY WITH THE FORECAST MOTION. THE UKMET IS FASTER AND MORE\r\nTO THE RIGHT... WHEREAS THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE SLOWER AND ON\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OTHER MODELS ARE\r\nSOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. SINCE THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING BETTER THE EVOLUTION OF THE DIGGING LOW\r\nOFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE\r\nTWO SOLUTIONS. ALTHOUGH OTIS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER\r\nMAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS\r\nINCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY PURPOSES BASED ON THE EXPECTED LOCATION OF\r\nTHE DECOUPLED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE\r\nOTIS WILL BE OVER OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS... AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2 KT TO 7 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL... WHICH ONLY BRINGS OTIS UP\r\nTO 80 KT IN 12 HOURS... BUT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE GFDL MODEL...\r\nWHICH WEAKENS OTIS IMMEDIATELY AND DOWN TO 66 KT IN 24 HOURS. ONE\r\nDISTURBING PIECE OF INTENSITY INFORMATION IS THE HIGH ODT VALUE.\r\nTHERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE PROBABILITY THAT OTIS COULD REACH\r\nCATEGORY 3 STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE INTENSITY\r\nLEVELS OFF OR DECREASES AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO 26C SSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE.\r\nHOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.\r\n12-FT SEAS WERE INCREASED BASED ON 18Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 21.6N 111.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 22.3N 111.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 23.3N 112.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 24.4N 112.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.2N 113.0W    70 KT...NEAR WEST-CENTRAL BAJA\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 28.7N 112.9W    45 KT...NRN GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N 112.0W    25 KT...INLAND NWRN MEXICO\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 35.5N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND ERN ARIZONA\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-10-01 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2005\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED AT ABOUT 00Z...OTIS HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT AND THE\r\nEYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90\r\nKT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THE RECENTLY\r\nIMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT LOS CABOS\r\nINDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/4...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION\r\nMAY BE SLOWER THAN THAT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N122W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO NEAR\r\n23N124W.  DOWNSTREAM OF THIS IS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG\r\n115W...AND THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR SOMEWHAT BLOCKING\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE EVENING.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nALSO SHOWS BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LOW FARTHER TO THE\r\nSOUTH...SHOUDL CAUSE OTIS TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHR...THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL\r\nGUIDANCE SAVE THE ECMWF NOW AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE UKMET CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD MOTION THAN THE\r\nOTHER MODELS.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TURN OTIS MORE WESTWARD AWAY\r\nFROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nBETWEEN 24-96 HR...CALLING FOR OTIS TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND MAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO IN A LITTLE OVER 72 HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST TO\r\nTHE LEFT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS GUNS AND\r\nGUNA.\r\n \r\nOTIS IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL WARM ENOUGH TO\r\nSUPPORT A HURRICANE STRONGER THAN OTIS IS NOW.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nGOOD EYE STRUCTURE...AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR OTIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN ABOUT\r\n24 HR.  WHILE THE TIMING OF THE PEAK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGUIDANCE...90 KT IS STRONGER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  THUS...OTIS MAY NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.  AFTER 24 HR...COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING LAND\r\nINTERACTION WILL CAUSE WEAKENING.  WHILE A 120 HR POINT IS INCLUDED\r\nIN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF OTIS\r\nCOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STILL EXIST.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE\r\nFOR 24 HR OR MORE.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD\r\nBRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON\r\nSATURDAY.  HURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 21.7N 111.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N 111.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.3N 112.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.7N 112.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 26.3N 112.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 32.0N 112.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 35.5N 110.5W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-10-01 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nOTIS CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE REACHED 5.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 90 KNOTS. OTIS HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THEN NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN BUT OTIS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE.\r\n|\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS SHOULD BEGIN SOON. OTIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY SEEN PLUNGING SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CORE OF\r\nOTIS NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE\r\nFOR 24 HR OR MORE.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD\r\nBRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON\r\nSATURDAY.  BECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF OTIS DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...NO CHANGE IN WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 21.9N 111.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 112.4W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N 113.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.2W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 29.5N 113.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 32.5N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 34.5N 112.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-10-01 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...BUT\r\nCONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A RING OF FAIRLY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE EYE... AND RECENT PASSIVE\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL\r\nINTACT...PERHAPS A LITTLE ERODED ON THE WEST SIDE.  DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN TO 4.0 BUT CI NUMBERS ARE 5.0.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 85 KT.  VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR\r\nAT LEAST 24 HOURS...AND THE WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE WILL ONLY\r\nCOOL GRADUALLY...SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE OTIS CROSSES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA...STILL LIKELY AS A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nOTIS IS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...PERHAPS 315/3.  A\r\nMID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY INDUCE A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAN THE GFS...AND\r\nFAVORING THE GFDL SOLUTION WHICH TAKES A WEAKENING OTIS OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND INTO ARIZONA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nDISSIPATING IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE\r\nFOR ONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT\r\nCOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. SINCE OTIS HAS MOVED FAR ENOUGH NORTHWARD\r\nSUCH THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS ALONG\r\nPORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 21.9N 111.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N 112.2W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.6N 112.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.2N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N 113.3W    65 KT...INLAND BAJA PENINSULA\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 31.0N 113.0W    40 KT...INLAND N MEXICO\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N 112.5W    25 KT...INLAND ARIZONA\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-10-01 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM... WITH ONLY A\r\nLIMITED AREA COLDER THAN -50C. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI\r\nNUMBERS AT 18Z WERE ALL NEAR 5.0/90 KT BUT WITH T NUMBERS 4.0/65\r\nKT. AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1357Z YIELDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 73-76\r\nKT FROM CIMSS AND CIRA... AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1608Z REVEALS\r\nONLY HALF OF AN EYEWALL REMAINING.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS\r\nDVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS... THE AMSU ESTIMATES... AND THE OVERALL\r\nDETERIORATING STRUCTURE... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75\r\nKT. SHIPS FORECASTS OTIS TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12\r\nHOURS OR SO... WHILE THE GFDL DOES SO THROUGH 24 HOURS. THE EFFECTS\r\nOF OCEAN UPWELLING DUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE\r\nCOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY RAPID DECLINE IN THE INTENSITY. ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND... IF OTIS GETS MOVING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST... IT COULD STILL HOLD ON TO HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL\r\nMAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THEREFORE... IT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE\r\nHURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALREADY IN PLACE.  OTIS IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER PASSING OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... AND AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n\r\nOTIS BECAME ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE MORNING HOURS... BUT\r\nIT APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY RESUMED A SLOW MOTION... ABOUT 350/3.  \r\nTHE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM OTIS BEING CAUGHT BETWEEN A MID TO\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nVARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW FAST\r\nTHIS PATTERN WILL MOVE OTIS... BUT AT LEAST THEY AGREE ON THE\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STALL\r\nEARLIER TODAY AND TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... BUT IS\r\nESSENTIALLY ALONG THE SAME NORTHWARD PATH.  OTIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 22.0N 111.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 22.5N 112.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 23.6N 112.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.2N 113.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 26.9N 113.4W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N 113.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-10-02 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 01 2005\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE CHANGE TO THE EYE WALL STRUCTURE OF\r\nOTIS THIS EVENING. BOTH SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT EAST-NORTHEAST TILT. UW-CIMSS SATELLITE\r\nDERIVED UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS\r\nINCHED ITS WAY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AXIS. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL ALSO INDICATES MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL POSITION IS NUDGED WEST OF\r\nTHE SATELLITE FIXES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TILT. A 0205Z SSM/I\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOULD HELP TO CLARIFY THIS DELEMA. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 65 AND 77\r\nKT DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...GFDL AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IT APPEARS THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE\r\nWEST IS COUNTER BALANCING THE STEERING CURRENT OF THE RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO...CAUSING THIS SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nTHE ECMWF AND THE UKMET...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED WITH SLIGHT FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES AFTER LANDFALL. THE\r\nECMWF AND THE UKMET DEPICT A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST. THE GFS TRACKER LOSES THE WEAKENING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND BEGINS TO TRACK A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW WEST OF THE\r\nCENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 72 HOURS. THIS IS INDICATED BY A\r\nSOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS LIKELY\r\nERRONEOUS SCENARIO AND THE UKMET/ECMWF DISSIPATION PROGNOSIS ARE\r\nDISCOUNTED IN THE FORECAST SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND\r\nFOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF\r\nAND THE UKMET...AND THE GFS BEYOND 72 HOURS. OTIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES MAINLAND NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 22.3N 111.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 22.9N 112.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 25.9N 112.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.1W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.9N 113.1W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otis","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-10-02 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nTWO RECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES AND A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION\r\nCONFIRM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TILTED CORE STRUCTURE OF OTIS.\r\nAPPARENTLY...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON\r\nTHE SYSTEM. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nREMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 65 KT FROM AFWA AND TAFB...AND 77 KT FROM\r\nSAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD WEAKEN OTIS TO A TROPICAL STORM IN\r\n24 HOURS...FURTHER WEAKENING THE SYSTEM TO A DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS\r\nAS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE GFDL AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE ALSO REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.   \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. OTIS REMAINS WITHIN A BREAK IN\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EITHER DISSIPATE THE\r\nSYSTEM IN 72 HOURS OR REFLECT A MERGE/ABSORPTION SCENARIO WITH A\r\nDEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW JUST WEST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST AS\r\nNOGAPS NOW INDICATES. BASED ON THE ECMWF...GFDN...AND GFS\r\nMODELS...OTIS COULD BECOME COMPLETELY SHEARED FROM THE MID- LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD...PARALELLING THE BAJA COAST AS\r\nA REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. BASED ON THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR AN INITIAL DRIFT\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN 36 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...OTIS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\nAS A DEPRESSION...THEN DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 22.3N 111.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 23.1N 112.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 24.3N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 26.1N 112.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N 113.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 29.6N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 32.0N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-10-02 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM LO CABOS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nEXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION WHICH IN FACT\r\nHAS BECOME LIMITED. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS.\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE AS\r\nINDICATED BY SHIPS MODEL...AND OTIS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND\r\nAND WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. \r\n\r\nOTIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 23.0N 111.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 23.7N 112.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 113.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N 112.9W    20 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N 113.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-10-02 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND HAS CONTINUED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE\r\nCONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND IS NOT VERY DEEP. T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY\r\nCONFINED TO A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. OTIS IS\r\nALREADY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...WITH DRY AIR TO ITS WEST...AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RATE INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nOTIS HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OR\r\nSO...BUT IT NOW APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND 6 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SHALLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY\r\nBE STEERED VERY SLOWLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A VERY SLOW NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY MOTION...ON A\r\nTRACK PARALLELING THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\n\r\nSINCE OTIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS...ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA\r\nREMAINS UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 23.0N 112.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 23.7N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 24.8N 113.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 26.0N 114.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.5N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N 114.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":20,"Date":"2005-10-03 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 02 2005\r\n \r\nTHE REMAINING CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nEXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR\r\nDEPICTING INFREQUENT WEAK RAINBANDS MOVING OVER THE COAST OF BAJA\r\nJUST SOUTH OF CABO SAN LAZARO. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS ARE\r\nDECREASING...30 TO 35 KT...BUT THE CI REMAINS AT 45 KT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE. THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE ON\r\nDISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS...BEFORE REACHING THE CENTRAL BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT...HOWEVER\r\nRETAINS THE SYSTEM AS A 20 KT REMNANT LOW MOVING ONSHORE IN 48\r\nHOURS...AND DISSIPATES IT OVER THE PENINSULA IN 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/5. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nNOGAPS...THE GFDL...AND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS NOW SUGGEST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT COMMENCING AROUND THE\r\n48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT AND THE\r\nLOW/MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS SLIGHTLY OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO\r\nWOULD KEEP OTIS AWAY FROM THE COAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED THREE MODEL CLUSTER...INDICATING A WEAK LOW\r\nMOVING ONSHORE IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 23.4N 112.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 24.1N 112.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 25.0N 113.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 25.9N 113.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 26.9N 113.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 28.4N 113.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otis","Adv":21,"Date":"2005-10-03 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005\r\n \r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A 0126Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION\r\nINDICATE THAT OTIS REMAINS SHEARED ABOUT 45 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE REMAINING CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES ARE 35 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\nINCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND AN\r\nUNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN OTIS TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 330/6. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN THE\r\nLOW/MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE EXTENDING OVER MEXICO.\r\nAFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT A NARROW LOW/MID- LEVEL RIDGE\r\nWILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA CAUSING\r\nOTIS TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AND THE SHALLOW GFS\r\nBETA ADVECTION MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nOFFSHORE...PARALLELING THE COAST...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 24.0N 112.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 24.7N 113.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 25.5N 113.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 26.4N 114.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N 114.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.6N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 28.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Otis","Adv":22,"Date":"2005-10-03 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 03 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN AREA OF A\r\nFEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS. INITIAL INTENISTY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30\r\nKNOTS AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nOTIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6\r\nKNOTS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO. OTIS COULD STILL GENERATE SPORADIC\r\nBURTS OF CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 25.2N 112.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 25.6N 113.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Otis","Adv":23,"Date":"2005-10-03 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OTIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 03 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS SINCE THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED FOR THE PAST 6 TO 8 HOURS. \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nAUTOMATIC STATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUN\r\nWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOUT 25 KNOTS. OTIS IS\r\nALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY AIR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER\r\nINCREASING COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST \r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 25.6N 113.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 26.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2005-10-15 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2005\r\n \r\nSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED\r\nABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE ALSO IMPROVED... AS HAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TAFB\r\nREPORTED A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA\r\nT-NUMBER OF T2.4/35 KT... AND THE 3HR ODT AVERAGE WAS T2.9/44 KT\r\nWITH A PEAK RAW ODT VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. HOWEVER... CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED IN THE CURVED BAND ON THE WEST SIDE SINCE 00Z... SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY...OR POSSIBLY A SLOW DRIFT\r\nTOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC MODELS ARE WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A MOTION\r\nBETWEEN SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFDL TAKES THE DEPRESSION\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FAIRLY QUICKLY AND INTENSIFIES IT INTO AN 81-KT\r\nHURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK AND EVEN DISSIPATE IT BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AT THIS TIME AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nTHAT WAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY... THE GFDL IS QUITE ROBUST IN INTENSIFYING\r\nTHE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS BEEN\r\nTRENDING TOWARD LESSER INTENSIFICATION WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUN\r\nSINCE 00Z YESTERDAY WHEN IT WAS FORECASTING A 95-KT HURRICANE.\r\nGIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE... AND THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND FAIRLY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IN WHICH THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EMBEDDED... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR VERY\r\nMODEST INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL WHICH ONLY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 44 KT BY 96 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 11.0N 101.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 11.0N 101.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 11.0N 102.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 103.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 11.0N 105.3W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 11.0N 106.6W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 11.0N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2005-10-15 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS\r\nDECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING...WITH ONE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER\r\nREMAINING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THERE IS POOR TO FAIR\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/2.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWING A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE AREA\r\nNORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 110W-125W.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT\r\nTHIS TROUGH SHOULD FILL STARTING IN ABOUT 48-72 HR...AND THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS MEANS IN THE LONGER\r\nTERM THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TAKE A WESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...THINGS\r\nARE LESS CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE GFDL...BAMD...AND BAMM CALL\r\nFOR AN INITIAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE TROUGH.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nMOVE STRAIGHT WESTWARD.  THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR\r\nLITTLE MOTION AS THE SYSTEM GETS STRETCHED ALONG THE ITCZ.  GIVEN\r\nTHE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE THE SLOW MOTION\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH IN DEFERENCE TO THE TROUGH AND THE GFDL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST SOUTHERLY\r\nTO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS AS TO HOW MUCH.  THE GFS FORECAST A BURST OF\r\nSHEAR IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE TO VALUES THAT WOULD LET\r\nTHE CYCLONE STRENGTHEN.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CANADIAN FORECASTS\r\nA MUCH MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH STRONGER SHEAR AND A LONGER\r\nTIME BEFORE IT DECREASES.  THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL SEEN NEARBY IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nMAY ALSO BE INHIBITING FACTORS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS\r\nBE ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE LESS BULLISH SHIPS MODEL RATHER THAN\r\nLEANING TOWARD THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL.  WHILE THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY AT 96-120 HR...IT IS STILL A\r\nLITTLE BELOW WHAT SHIPS IS FORECASTING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 11.0N 101.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 11.1N 102.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 11.1N 102.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 11.2N 103.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 11.3N 104.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 11.5N 105.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 107.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 11.5N 108.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2005-10-15 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION AND LITTLE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. IN FACT...THERE WAS NOT MUCH TO BEGIN WITH. T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE COME DOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25\r\nKNOTS. LATEST QUICKSCAT SHOWS NO STRONG WINDS AND NO CIRCULATION.\r\nBECAUSE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUITY...I AM FORECASTING\r\nA LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAKENING\r\nTREND OBSERVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT DEPRESSION\r\nCOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.   \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS\r\nTO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DERIVED FROM\r\nMODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE.    \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 102.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 11.0N 104.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 11.0N 105.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 11.0N 107.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 11.0N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2005-10-15 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION...LITTLE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND APPEARS TO BE ATTACHED TO THE INTERTROPICAL\r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS BUT IT\r\nIS STILL ON A WEAKENING TREND. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT\r\nDEPRESSION COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE BUILDS\r\nTO THE NORTH...THE CYCLONE OR THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nDERIVED FROM MODELS AND THE GFDL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY\r\nWEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 11.0N 101.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 11.0N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 11.0N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 11.0N 103.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2005-10-16 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A SMALL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER JUST BENEATH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 25 KT...AS DOES\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY. UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLIES CONTINUE TO\r\nHAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE MODERATE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nWEAKENING TREND...BASED OFF OF THE SHIPS...WITH THE DEPRESSION\r\nBECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/3. DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A RELATIVELY WEAK\r\nLOW/MID-LAYER EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BUILD WEST\r\nTO SOUTHWEST FROM THE GULF OF  MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT WILL REFLECT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHALLOW MEAN BAM.\r\n  \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 11.0N 102.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 102.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 11.0N 103.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 10.9N 104.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 10.7N 104.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 10.3N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2005-10-16 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TD-16E HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE IMPROVED AND DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD\r\n-80C HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AR T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA... AND 25 KT FROM SAB. AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WAS 1005 MB AND 33 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. A LARGE AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL TO SLOWLY FILL\r\nAND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS\r\nALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST\r\nOVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK... EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST TIME\r\nLENGTH HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 120 HOURS NOW THAT THE SHIPS AND THE\r\nOTHER MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE ALIVE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 28C SSTS FOR THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT... THE WATER MAY BE WARMER THAN THAT BASED ON\r\nAN SST REPORT OF 84F/29C FROM DRIFTING BUOY 32640 LOCATED NORTH OF\r\nTD-16E. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 21 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY\r\nDECREASE TO LESS THAN 15 KT AFTER 48 HOURS... SO SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 42 KT BY 96 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 11.0N 102.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 10.9N 103.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 10.8N 103.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 10.5N 104.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 10.3N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z  9.9N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z  9.5N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z  9.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2005-10-16 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nA 0819 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF TD-16E\r\nWAS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS\r\nALSO CONFIRMED BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY \r\nWHICH SHOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS\r\nINDICATIVE OF CONTINUING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE\r\n2.0 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 2.5 FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AT 280/5...AND PERHAPS\r\nEVEN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN INDICATED HERE. A LARGE AND STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND\r\nNORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nREACH ITS MOST SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 24 HOURS THEN SLOWLY FILL\r\nAND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS\r\nALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO TO SLOWLY BUILD/SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST\r\nOVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTD-16E SHOULD ACT TO FORCE THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nAN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT THAT THE FORECAST FOR THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION\r\nOF THE CURRENT MOTION. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS. THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 22 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY\r\nDECREASE TO 15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND TO 10-15 KT THROUGH DAY 5.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER SINCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS...IT \r\nCOULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST A LITTLE BIT. \r\n\r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 11.3N 103.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 11.4N 103.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.4N 104.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 11.1N 105.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 10.7N 106.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 10.0N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 10.0N 112.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 10.0N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2005-10-16 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSTRUGGLING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nDISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST. DVORAK NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA AND 2.0 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE SHEARING PATTERN...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS FURTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS NOW 290/6. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE...IN THAT THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST BY ALL\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO REACH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT BY 18-24 HOURS...\r\nTHEN SLOWLY FILL AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY BUILD TO THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF TD-16E SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST BEYOND 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE\r\nMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST...BASED ON\r\nAN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION...AND LESS OF A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27C-28C SSTS THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WHILE THE CURRENT VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 10-15 KT IN 36 HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST. AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARD THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE...CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36\r\nHOURS. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS...IT COULD BECOME ONE MUCH SOONER IF THE SHEAR RELAXES JUST\r\nA LITTLE BIT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER COBB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 11.8N 104.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.9N 104.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 11.9N 105.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 11.7N 107.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 11.5N 108.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 11.0N 110.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 11.0N 113.8W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 11.5N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2005-10-17 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2005\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAD INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IMPROVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING... AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C OVER THE\r\nWESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM... SUPPORTED SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM ALL CLASSIFYING AGENCIES.  HOWEVER...\r\nRECENT SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS SHEARED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BANDING\r\nFEATURE... AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nCONSIDERABLY.  THEREFORE... BASED ON THE SHORT TERM CLOUD PATTERN\r\nCHANGES... WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL AGREE ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.  IN FACT... THE GFDL FORECASTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/7. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- LAYER RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND\r\nSHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THIS STEERING CURRENT OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER- LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nTRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT FASTER BEYOND\r\n36 HOURS TO CONFORM WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 12.2N 104.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.3N 105.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.2N 107.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 11.9N 108.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 11.5N 109.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 11.0N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 11.5N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 12.5N 119.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2005-10-17 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n \r\nMODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS STRIPPED AWAY ALL THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION FROM THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER... DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS\r\nT2.0/30 KT FROM ALL 3 AGENCIES. GIVEN THE VERY TIGHT SWIRL NOTED IN\r\nNIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 270/07. TD-16E REMAINS EMBEDDED IN\r\nA FAIRLY DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVING IN A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST... SO ANY BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTHAT MAY DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY RESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD JUMPS OR\r\nWOBBLES IN THE TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY 36\r\nHOURS... WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MINOR INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE OVER 27.5C TO 28C SSTS. HOWEVER... THE MID-LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 38 PERCENT\r\nRELATIVE HUMIDITY TO AROUND 20 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS. THIS EXTREMELY\r\nDRY ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST OR EVEN\r\nREDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEYOND 24 HOURS.... WHICH WOULD\r\nRESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMANT LOW.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 12.0N 105.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.0N 106.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.0N 108.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 11.7N 109.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 11.5N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 11.5N 118.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 12.5N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2005-10-17 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED\r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nARE DOWN TO 1.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB AND AFWA...HENCE THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nNEIGHBORING ITCZ IS REMARKABLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH\r\nINDICATES A LARGE-SCALE STABILIZATION OF THE AIR MASS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...SMALL CIRCULATION\r\nSIZE...AND DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...SHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST\r\nREGENERATION.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS...BUT UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION MAKES A\r\nSIGNIFICANT COMEBACK... DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS RATHER EASY TO\r\nTRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 270/07.  A\r\nLOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... THEREFORE A CONTINUED WESTWARD\r\nMOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...IS PREDICTED. \r\nTHIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 12.1N 106.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.1N 107.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.0N 108.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.0N 110.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 112.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 12.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 12.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2005-10-17 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n\r\nAN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM AROUND 1330Z...SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THIS\r\nMORNING'S ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEARTH OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN\r\nTODAY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM\r\nCONSISTS MAINLY OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...LOW CLOUD\r\nSWIRL...WITH LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO MOVE OVER WARM WATERS FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH IMPLIES THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERE.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...ARGUES AGAINST RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 48-72 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER UNLESS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS\r\nNEAR/OVER THE CENTER... ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED QUITE\r\nSOON.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...270/8...IS JUST SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING.  A LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE IS LIKELY TO\r\nREMAIN ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4\r\nDAYS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO YIELD A STEERING FLOW THAT\r\nWILL CARRY THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...MAINLY WESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY A\r\nSHADE FASTER.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 12.2N 107.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.2N 108.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 12.2N 110.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 12.1N 111.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 113.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":13,"Date":"2005-10-18 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON OCT 17 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS FAILED TO DEVELOP ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS... AND IT HAS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ON SIXTEEN-E UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/9. A LOW- TO MID- LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS SHALLOW MEAN\r\nBAM AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMANT LOW...SEE THE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 12.1N 108.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 12.1N 109.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 12.0N 111.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 112.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 12.0N 114.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 12.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":14,"Date":"2005-10-19 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E HAS\r\nACQUIRED ENOUGH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO BE RE-CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED AGAIN. \r\nMY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KT IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIRA/NESDIS.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nENVIRONMENT...SO ONLY VERY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/9.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE...THAT IS CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF SIXTEEN-E...IS\r\nLIKELY TO STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN 3-5 DAYS...THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS WILL PROBABLY BECOME VERY WEAK BY THAT TIME. \r\nTHUS...LITTLE MOVEMENT IS FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 12.2N 113.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.3N 115.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.5N 116.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.7N 118.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 119.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":15,"Date":"2005-10-19 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nTD-16E CIRCULATION... UNLIKE THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS WHERE THE LATE\r\nNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE FLAREUPS HAD FIZZLED OUT BY THIS\r\nTIME. THE ITCZ HAS ALSO BECOME MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND AIRMASS\r\nSTABILIZATION OVER THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS HAS DECREASED. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.0/25 KT FROM\r\nSAB USING A BANDING PATTERN. HOWEVER... A SHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A\r\nDATA T-NUMBER OF AT LEAST T2.5/35 KT. A NESDIS/CIRA AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE AT 19/1334Z WAS 1006 MB AND 30 KT. A BLEND OF ALL THESE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES IS 30 KT... WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL 280/9... EVEN THOUGH THERE HAVE\r\nBEEN SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN SPEED AS HIGH AS 13 KT.  A BROAD BUT WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE BASICALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5... A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE WEAKENING RIDGE... IN COMBINATION AN\r\nINCREASE IN THE SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW... MAY HELP TO LIFT\r\nTHE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWEST OR NORTHWARD LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\n...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DESPITE THE DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 24 HOURS... AND THE MID-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST GRADUALLY MOISTEN. THESE IMPROVING\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND THEN SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR INCREASES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY WEAKER... ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 12.4N 115.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 12.7N 118.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 13.1N 119.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 13.5N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 14.1N 122.2W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":16,"Date":"2005-10-20 03:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT WED OCT 19 2005\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING AND IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO FIND ON THE FINAL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY.\r\nIT IS TEMPTING TO POSITION THE CENTER IN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL\r\nBUT IT IS BELIEVED THAT THIS SWIRL IS ROTATING INSIDE THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY A\r\nTRMM MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE TRMM PASS WAS FAR FROM\r\nCONCLUSIVE.  WHEREVER THE EXACT POSITION... THE THUNDERSTORMS IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 16-E ARE WEAKENING RAPIDLY WITH NO\r\nCONVECTION WITHIN AT LEAST 75 NM OF THE CENTER.  T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nFALLING FROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN A BIT OF AN ENIGMA BY NOT BEING ABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME. THE\r\nMOST LIKELY CULPRIT IS DRY AIR SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR PICTURES...\r\nPROBABLY SUPRESSING CONVECTION DESPITE MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nAND WARM SSTS. SHIPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL\r\nHUMIDITY WHICH COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO REACH STORM INTENSITY\r\nIN A DAY OR TWO WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. GIVEN THE\r\nDISORGANIZED APPEARANCE TONIGHT.. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF\r\nSHIPS WERE INCORRECT AND THE CYCLONE BECAME A REMNANT LOW IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/9. THERE ARE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSTEER THE CYCLONE A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT\r\nEXTENDED RANGES...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nINTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nRIDGE...ALLOWING A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE\r\nNUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 12.4N 115.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.5N 117.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 12.9N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 120.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":17,"Date":"2005-10-20 09:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005\r\n \r\nIT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. IT IS EVEN HARDER TO\r\nFIND IT NOW. IT APPEARS THAT CENTER WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS WELL\r\nREMOVED FROM THE VERY LIMITED CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION USING CONTINUITY IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OR WEST\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SEEMS THAT THE CHANCES\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION ARE DIMINISHING SINCE THE CONVECTION IS\r\nBECOMING MORE AND MORE SEPARATED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AT\r\nTHIS TIME. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER TODAY COULD BE HELPFUL IN\r\nCLARIFYING IF WE HAVE A DEPRESSION OR NOT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 12.6N 117.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.0N 118.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.5N 120.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":18,"Date":"2005-10-20 15:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU OCT 20 2005\r\n\r\nIT CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS\r\nAND NO DOMINANT CENTER.  THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY AS MUCH AS ANYTHING ELSE...AND IS WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\n25-KNOT CURRENT INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING AN AREA\r\nOF INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 130W.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENTLY\r\nDISORGANIZED STATE OF THE SYSTEM...MAKES STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...UNLESS A DEFINITE CENTER IS IDENTIFIED\r\nSOON...ADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED...AGAIN...LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF 285/10 IS A CRUDE ESTIMATE...AT BEST.  THE\r\nTROUGH ALONG 130W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD.  IF SIXTEEN-E WERE\r\nA DEEP AND STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS TROUGH WOULD BRING ABOUT\r\nA SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER THE DEPRESSION IS VERY\r\nWEAK...AND WILL PROBABLY NOT RESPOND TO DEEP-LAYER STEERING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 12.6N 118.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 119.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.5N 121.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 13.9N 122.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 14.2N 122.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 14.5N 123.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 124.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":19,"Date":"2005-10-20 21:00:00","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU OCT 20 2005\r\n \r\nA 20/1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nWITH NO DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND SURFACE WINDS OF ONLY 25\r\nKT. VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON ALSO CONFIRMS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nWIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO BROADEN AND BECOME ILL-DEFINED... WHILE\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED.\r\nAS SUCH... TD-16E IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW... AND THIS WILL BE FINAL ADVISORY... PART DEUX... ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS IS 285/08. THE REMANT LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THE REMAINDER OF ITS\r\nEXISTENCE... WHICH MAY COME TO A DEMISE SOONER THAN WHAT IS\r\nINDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND THE SHALLOW BAM. HOWEVER... THIS SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AN\r\nIDENTIFIABLE ENTITY BY 48 HOURS AS A RESULT OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY\r\nTO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR NOTED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. THESE ADVERSE\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT OR AT LEAST INHIBIT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF\r\nANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 12.8N 119.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.2N 121.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 13.4N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 13.5N 123.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 13.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING REM LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-06-10 13:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n800 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADAR DATA FROM\r\nWESTERN CUBA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ORGANIZED INTO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE AREA WITH TOPS TO -85C.  SATELLITE\r\nAND RADAR DATA SHOW AT LEAST TWO SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY CENTERS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION...WITH THE ADVISORY POSITION\r\nBEING THAT OF THE OVERALL MEAN CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 340/10.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A COL\r\nAREA BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nSEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.  THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TROUGH...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND STALLS THE\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS SPLIT THE DEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nTURNS IT WESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE\r\nRECURVATURE SCENARIO AND BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA IN ABOUT 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREATER THAN NORMAL\r\nAMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED\r\nIN MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE U. S.\r\nTROUGH AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. \r\nTHIS SHOULD PRODUCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR THE INTENSITY TO REACH 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.  IF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1300Z 21.1N  85.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N  85.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 23.9N  86.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.6N  86.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 27.2N  86.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 29.5N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 34.0N  77.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 42.0N  67.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-06-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006\r\n \r\nTHE ONLY SIGNIFICANT NEW DATA TO COME IN SINCE THE SPECIAL ADVISORY\r\nWAS A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1115Z.  AS IS OFTEN THE CASE FOR\r\nSYSTEMS WITH 30-35 KT WINDS... IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT QUIKSCAT\r\nGREATLY OVERESTIMATED THE WIND SPEEDS IN RAIN-CONTAMINATED AREAS IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN\r\nAREAS... THE RETRIEVED WINDS WERE AS STRONG AS 25-30 KT... SO\r\nHOLDING THE ESTIMATE FOR THE MAXIMUM WINDS AT 30 KT SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SEVERAL SMALL\r\nCIRCULATIONS ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS STILL 340/10 BUT REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED IN BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  LACKING ANY NEW TRACK GUIDANCE... THE\r\nSCENARIOS PAINTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALL REMAIN\r\nPOSSIBILITIES.  THE GFS AND GFDL RECURVE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CANADIAN MODELS STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... AND THE UKMET TURNS IT WESTWARD\r\nTOWARD TEXAS.  MEANWHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF MODELS SPLIT THE\r\nDEPRESSION INTO MULTIPLE LOWS... WITH THE LARGER ONE MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS AND GFDL TRACKS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREAT THIS AS A SINGLE RECURVING SYSTEM THAT\r\nSHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES.  AS STATED PREVIOUSLY... THERE IS A GREATER THAN AVERAGE\r\nAMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS TO DOMINATE OVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nBEYOND ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD PRODUCE PLENTY OF WIND SHEAR TO\r\nLIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM... AND INTENSIFICATION INTO A\r\nHURRICANE APPEARS UNLIKELY IN THAT ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN PEAKS AT 50 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF... GENERALLY IN BETWEEN THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 21.5N  85.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 22.9N  86.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 24.7N  86.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 27.8N  85.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 31.0N  81.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 36.5N  74.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 45.0N  63.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-06-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN A SINGLE COHERENT SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION.  A SERIES OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE ALL DAY BEEN ROTATING\r\nABOUT THE MEAN CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION THAT IS EXTREMELY\r\nELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  EVEN GIVEN DATA FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT IS STILL INVESTIGATING THE\r\nSYSTEM... WHERE TO SPECIFY A CIRCULATION CENTER IS VERY\r\nCHALLENGING.  RECON FOUND A WIND SHIFT AND A BROAD PRESSURE MINIMUM\r\nIN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT ABOUT 18Z... BUT THAT DID NOT QUALIFY AS\r\nA WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A VORTEX.  THE AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING\r\nOTHER PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION TO HELP DETERMINE WHERE THE\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED.  FOR NOW I HAVE PLACED THE ADVISORY POSITION AT\r\nABOUT THE CENTROID OF THE BROAD CLOUD CIRCULATION SEEN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY... WHICH RESULTS IN A NET MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN THE BIGGER PICTURE...\r\nMOST OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE ELONGATED CENTER. \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE INTERNAL DISORGANIZATION... THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBATTLING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND DRY AIR OVER THE GULF\r\nTHAT IMPINGING ON WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST 30 KT REMAINS A GOOD\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE BOTH HIGHLY UNCERTAIN... DUE TO\r\nTHE CURRENT STATE OF THE SYSTEM AND SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN\r\nA SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nWHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO AND CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... THEY\r\nDISAGREE GREATLY ON THE TIMING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLOWER THAN BUT OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE\r\nCLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS... OR BASICALLY AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nVARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT\r\n45 KT OVER THE GULF... LESS THAN IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES... TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS STILL EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD NEAR\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 21.8N  85.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 23.2N  86.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 25.0N  86.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 26.5N  86.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 28.1N  84.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  79.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 37.5N  71.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 47.5N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-06-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE FACT THAT THE AIR\r\nFORCE PLANE CREW COULD NOT MAKE A CENTER FIX...THERE WAS A BAND OF\r\n40 TO 45-KNOT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION. THESE WINDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW TRANSIENT\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS. SINCE THEN...THERE HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPROVEMENT IN\r\nORGANIZATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. THEREFORE...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS KEPT AS A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. THERE IS STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING OVER A\r\nREGION OF WARM OCEAN...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nREACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. ANOTHER PLANE  IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO CHECK THE SYSTEM EARLY SUNDAY.  \r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...AND THIS MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. IN\r\n24 HOURS OR SO...AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY KICK THE\r\nSYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN VERY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHIS FORECAST SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA WEST COAST\r\nAS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 23.4N  86.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 24.6N  86.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N  85.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 29.5N  83.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  77.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 39.5N  70.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 48.5N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-06-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A SHIP REPORT FROM\r\nWCY8453 INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE WEST\r\nOF OUR PREVIOUS TRACK...INDEED PROBABLY FARTHER WEST THAN THE\r\nCURRENT ADVISORY POSITION...AND INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  NEVERTHELESS...THE PULASKI SHOAL LIGHT CMAN\r\nSTATION...NEAR THE DRY TORTUGAS...REPORTED A 10-MINUTE MEAN WIND OF\r\n36 KT SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z IN A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS\r\nSINCE DISSIPATED.  IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW\r\nSPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND...BUT I AM LOATH TO\r\nUPGRADE THE DEPRESSION GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE\r\nRECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHILE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE CENTER.  THIS SHEARING FLOW LEADS TO TWO VERY\r\nDIFFERENT FORECAST SCENARIOS.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND\r\nGFDL MODELS MAINTAIN OR STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION AND LIFT IT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nTHE SCENARIO THAT THE LAST FEW OFFICIAL FORECASTS HAVE FOLLOWED...\r\nAND WHICH I WILL MAINTAIN FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  HOWEVER...A\r\nSECOND SCENARIO IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY...IN WHICH THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS SEPARATED FROM ITS DEEP CONVECTION BY THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LEAVING A WEAK VORTEX TO LINGER AND\r\nDEGENERATE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IF DAYLIGHT IMAGERY\r\nAND/OR RECONNAISSANCE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE WESTERN CENTER IS THE\r\nONLY CENTER...THEN SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS IN THE TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 23.5N  87.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 24.7N  87.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 27.5N  85.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 29.2N  83.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 32.0N  77.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 46.0N  56.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-06-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006\r\n\r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nOF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME\r\nAREA.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF\r\nTHE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS\r\nNOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO\r\nDISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nPREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER\r\nPREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE\r\nDEVELOPING.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT\r\nWOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED...\r\nIT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW\r\nAND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING.  THIS LATTER\r\nSCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...\r\nGFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 23.9N  88.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 24.9N  88.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  87.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 27.3N  85.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  83.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  77.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 39.0N  67.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006\r\n \r\nSEVERAL HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE HUNTERS AGAIN MEASURED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 50 KT...BUT IN A BAND THAT WAS EVEN\r\nFARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN IN THE EARLIER PASS.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT THE BANDS OF HEAVIER SHOWERS HAVE BECOME DISPLACED\r\nFARTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAN THEY WERE THIS\r\nMORNING.  INDEED...THE SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nAPPEARANCE AT THE MOMENT.  BECAUSE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS\r\nBECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER TODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND DATA FROM THE NEXT MISSION OF THE AIR\r\nFORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS AROUND 0000 UTC COULD CONFIRM THIS\r\nSUSPICION.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT AN\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE PATH OF ALBERTO.  EVEN\r\nSO...THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE DO PREDICT SOME STRENGTHENING.\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE LESS THAN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS BROAD...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A CENTER.\r\nTHE FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED.  ASSUMING THAT ALBERTO IS ABLE TO\r\nHOLD TOGETHER VERTICALLY...A DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. WOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT.  SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL...SHOW A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT CROSS FLORIDA.  THE\r\nGFS SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT\r\nSPREADS ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A NON-TROPICAL-LOOKING AMPLIFICATION\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE.  BECAUSE OF THE DIVERGENCE\r\nIN MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE IN\r\nBANDS AS MUCH AS 200 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH COULD REACH THE\r\nCOAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS\r\nBEING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 24.5N  87.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 25.4N  87.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 27.8N  85.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  83.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  77.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 39.0N  67.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 46.0N  54.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-06-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006\r\n \r\nDATA FROM SATELLITES AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT THIS EVENING INDICATE ALBERTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nOVERALL STRUCTURE. SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED\r\nIN SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MEAN CENTER...\r\nAND THE ADVISORY POSITION IS THE MIDPOINT BETWEEN THOSE SWIRLS. THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION IS TO THE WEST OF THE LAST RECON POSITION AT\r\n12/0143Z... AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTROID OF THE LARGE SURFACE\r\nPRESSURE ENVELOPE. THE 40-KT INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION\r\nTHAT THE RECON AIRCRAFT MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED STRONGER WINDS TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE FLIGHT TRACK WITHIN SOME OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nUPPER-AIR DATA THIS EVENING INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nPREVIOUSLY LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS ERODED AND LIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ALSO\r\nSHIFTED NORTHWARD BUT HAS REMAINED INTACT ALL THE WAY WESTWARD\r\nTO EASTERN TEXAS. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW...HAS MAINTAINED A MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ACROSS THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL\r\nBECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THAT SHOULD ACT\r\nTO TURN ALBERTO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE GFDL ONCE\r\nAGAIN APPEARS TO BE OVERCOMPENSATING FOR THE VERTICAL SHEAR AS IT\r\nTAKES THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA... AS DOES THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE BY 36H. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE GENERAL MID-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW PATTERN AFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH KEEPS ALBERTO SOUTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM AND IN THE DIVERGENT RIGHT-REAR QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nONCE ALBERTO TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ABATE SOMEWHAT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE 24-36H TIME FRAME...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL... BUT NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 25.3N  87.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 26.6N  87.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 27.9N  85.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 28.7N  84.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 30.1N  81.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 34.0N  75.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 40.0N  63.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 46.0N  52.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-06-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH ALBERTO NEAR\r\n05Z FOUND ONLY A FLAT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A MINIMUM OF 1006 MB\r\nAND NO CLEAR CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE\r\nTHEN.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND BUILT WESTWARD AGAINST THE\r\nSHEAR...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES IN THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT A CENTER IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS\r\nCONVECTION.  A DROPSONDE ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION REPORTED 40\r\nKT AT THE SURFACE AT 06Z...AND THE PRESSURE AT BUOY 42003 HAS\r\nFALLEN TO 1002.9 MB.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT THREE HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF ALBERTO...WHICH IS STILL EMBEDDED\r\nIN A ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS BOTH DROP AN UPPER LOW INTO THE WESTERN GULF THAT\r\nBACKS THE FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK THAN THE\r\nCURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nMOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING A\r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nWILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY...BUT IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE\r\nCORRECT IT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DICTATES A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING AT THIS TIME.  THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE\r\nCOAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 26.2N  87.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.1N  86.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 28.1N  85.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  83.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  81.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N  73.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 41.5N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 46.5N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-06-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006\r\n\r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND THAT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS ABRUPTLY REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT IS\r\nNOW RELOCATED SOME 60 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED POSITION.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED A PEAK\r\n2500-FT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997\r\nMB.  BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO\r\n60 KT.  THE STORM HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO\r\nLOOP CURRENT...WHICH HAS LIKELY BEEN A CONTRIBUTOR TO THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  AS ALBERTO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL\r\nBE DEPARTING THE LOOP CURRENT AND ENCOUNTERING A REGION OF LOWER\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ALSO\r\nCONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nFACTORS WOULD APPEAR TO MITIGATE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  NONETHELESS....GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN\r\nPREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE WE MUST NOW ALLOW FOR THE DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE.  THEREFORE A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING IS NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST GULF\r\nCOAST.\r\n\r\nA MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD HEADING.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS GUIDANCE SHOW A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK...BUT THIS IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT GIVEN THE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nLEFTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL...THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH ALBERTO IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG AN EXTENSIVE PORTION OF THE\r\nFLORIDA GULF COAST.  OWING TO THE CONFIGURATION OF THE COASTLINE\r\nAND THE SHALLOW CONTINENTAL SHELF...A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A\r\nCATEGORY ONE HURRICANE CAN PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT SURGE IN THIS\r\nAREA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 27.1N  85.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 27.6N  85.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 28.8N  84.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 30.0N  83.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  77.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 38.0N  70.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 45.0N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-06-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006\r\n\r\nAFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY...THE\r\nSTORM HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.  THE LAST FIX FROM THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOLDING NEAR\r\n997 MB AND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 67 KT...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 60 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER ELONGATED.  THE STORM HAS LEFT THE\r\nAREA OF HIGHEST OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...I.E. THE GULF OF MEXICO LOOP\r\nCURRENT...BEHIND.  NONETHELESS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM EARLY ON TUESDAY.\r\n\r\nALBERTO'S FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT...TO ABOUT 9 KT.  A\r\n500 MB TROUGH NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nWITHIN THIS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10\r\nFEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN\r\nTHIS AREA.  IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH\r\nLOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE\r\nTHIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 27.9N  85.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 28.9N  84.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 30.4N  83.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.1N  81.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 34.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 37.0N  72.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 42.0N  65.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 47.0N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-06-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUN 12 2006\r\n\r\nCORRECTED SPELLING ERRORS\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 68-KT WINDS AT \r\n700 MB IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT JUST NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY \r\nFLORIDA... WHICH WAS IN AN AREA OF 64+ KT DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA\r\nFROM TAMPA BAY AND TALLAHASSEE. THESE WIND REPORTS WERE IN AREAS OF\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING WITH REFLECTIVITIES OF AT LEAST 40 DBZ...SO\r\nUSING A 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR SEEMS APPROPRIATE...WHICH\r\nMEANS THAT ALBERTO REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 995 MB IS BASED ON EARLIER RECON DROPSONDE REPORT OF\r\n996 MB WITH A 15-KT SURFACE WIND...AND NOAA BUOY 42036...LOCATED\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... REPORTING 997.2 MB PRESSURE AT 13/02Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 040/09 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS\r\nEVENING INDICATE A NARROW 850-500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF ALBERTO ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF ITS CURRENT\r\nMOTION...BEFORE THE BEING TURNED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A\r\nDIGGING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE\r\nTENNESSEE AND MISSOURI VALLEYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS\r\nNEAR THE RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS\r\nA LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER ALBERTO BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW MAY FORCE THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CLOSER TO THE\r\nCAROLINA COASTS BY 48 HOURS...RESULTING IN AN OVER WATER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA.\r\n\r\nSOME SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. WHILE GULF WATER TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nONLY AROUND 79-80F AHEAD OF ALBERTO... THE 00Z UPPER-AIR SOUNDING\r\nFROM TAMPA INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBECOME MORE UNSTABLE SINCE 12Z THIS MORNING. SINCE THERE IS\r\nAVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE REGENERATION OF SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING... A FORECAST OF\r\nALBERTO POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nAPPEARS TO STILL BE IN ORDER.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINS...THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nALBERTO WILL LIKELY BE STORM SURGE FLOODING...WHICH COULD BE 8-10\r\nFEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS EVEN FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN\r\nTHIS AREA.  IT IS...HOWEVER...IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY EXACTLY WHICH\r\nLOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST STORM SURGE FLOODING BECAUSE\r\nTHIS WILL DEPEND UPON THE PRECISE TRACK AND WIND FIELD NEAR\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 28.4N  84.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 29.5N  83.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.1N  82.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 33.1N  80.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 35.0N  77.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 39.5N  68.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 44.0N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 49.5N  50.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-06-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006\r\n \r\nWITH A SLUG OF DRY AIR OVERTAKING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...\r\nALBERTO'S CHANCES OF BECOMING A HURRICANE ARE EVAPORATING.   THERE\r\nIS NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CYCLONE IS TAKING ON\r\nA LESS-THAN-TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE WIND\r\nFIELD HAS ALSO BROADENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\nPEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT\r\nWERE 64 KT...WHICH GIVEN THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTION...WOULD\r\nCORRESPOND TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0Z\r\nDID SHOW WINDS AS HIGH AS 55 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY FOR THIS PACKAGE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/8.  AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES\r\nEASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE\r\nTROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BEFORE\r\nALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER OVER LAND FOR MUCH OF THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...AND IS IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF ALBERTO WILL DECAY ONLY SLOWLY AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF ONSHORE WINDS TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE NORTH OF THE PRESENT WARNING AREA ON THE ATLANTIC\r\nCOAST.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS THEREFORE BEEN EXTENDED\r\nNORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 29.2N  84.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.3N  83.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.1N  81.9W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 34.4N  78.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  73.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 43.5N  62.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 50.5N  48.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 55.0N  25.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-06-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006\r\n \r\nA FEW HOURS AGO...A PARTIAL EYEWALL DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS EVENT MARKED ALBERTO'S\r\nLAST OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS FLEW ACROSS THIS FEATURE A COUPLE OF TIMES AND INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE WINDS WERE WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.  BASED ON SYNOPTIC\r\nAND RECON DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT.  THE\r\nCENTER IS NOW PRACTICALLY ONSHORE SO WEAKENING WILL OCCUR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO FOLLOWS THE INLAND\r\nDECAY MODEL.  BEYOND THAT TIME...WE EXPECT ALBERTO TO BE TRANSFORMED\r\nINTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT IN\r\n2-5 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. \r\n \r\nRADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS WOBBLING BETWEEN\r\nA NNE AND NE HEADING.  SMOOTHING BETWEEN THESE FIXES YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 035/8.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH NEAR NORTHERN\r\nMINNESOTA IS PREDICTED TO DROP INTO THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nU.S. AND KICK ALBERTO....OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION...\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nSOME SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS STILL OCCURRING OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 29.8N  83.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.3N  82.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 33.4N  80.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 36.5N  75.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 39.5N  70.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 47.0N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 53.0N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 55.0N  18.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-06-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH OVER LAND...ALBERTO POSSESSES A WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN.  DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED HOWEVER.  TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS IS BEING RETAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BECAUSE 34-KT\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER A PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST.  WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION IS\r\nLIKELY LATER TONIGHT.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH\r\nA LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE IN A DAY OR SO AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY\r\nHOUR 24.  DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT BAROCLINIC INTENSIFICATION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSURFACE SYNOPTIC AND WSR-88D RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMOTION IS 035/9.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING FROM THE MIDWEST SHOULD\r\nKICK ALBERTO AND/OR THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...IN A DAY OR\r\nSO.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES\r\nACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 30.7N  83.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 32.4N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 34.8N  78.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 37.7N  72.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 41.0N  66.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 48.5N  51.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 53.0N  34.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 54.5N  15.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-06-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2006\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE REMAINED INTACT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nWSR-88D DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM CHARLESTON AND JACKSONVILLE\r\nINDICATED A FAIRLY LONG AND WIDE SWATH OF 50-KT AND STRONGER WINDS\r\nEXTENDING FROM 1000 THROUGH 8000 FT ASL ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND\r\nINTO EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE... IT APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING\r\nDOWN ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF THOSE WINDS TO THE SURFACE AS A 1-MINUTE\r\nSUSTAINED WIND...ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTS OF 45-50 KT. NUMEROUS REPORTS\r\nOF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWNED BY STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED\r\nFROM SAVANNAH AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ALSO...NOAA BUOY 41008 OFF THE\r\nGEORGIA COAST REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 31 KT WITH A\r\nGUST TO 39 KT AT A 5-METER HEIGHT. THEREFORE... ALBERTO WILL REMAIN\r\nA TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND NORTHWARD TO SOUTH\r\nSANTEE RIVER.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD ALBERTO AND\r\nGRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS... AND THEN MORE EASTWARD AFTER\r\nTHAT. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE VERY TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONT OVER NORTHERN SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA OR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 12-18 HOURS. GIVEN THE\r\nAMPLITUDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...STRENGTHENING\r\nINTO A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA\r\nOUTER BANKS SEEMS QUITE PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT ALBERTO MAY NOT DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS... WHICH WOULD REQUIRE A NORTHWARD \r\nEXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 31.8N  82.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 33.6N  80.2W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 36.4N  75.2W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 39.6N  68.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 43.0N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 49.5N  47.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 54.0N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 55.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alberto","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-06-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006\r\n \r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOYS AND CMAN STATIONS OFF\r\nTHE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE\r\nDROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE. HENCE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nHAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION AND ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS\r\nHAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ALONG\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS IN ANTICIPATION OF ALBERTO'S\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nALBERTO HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 040/18. A DEEP-LAYER LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM\r\nTHE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD HELP THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE TO\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. ALBERTO IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE\r\nNEXT 6-12 HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FORECAST ONCE THE\r\nSYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND\r\nWEST IN THE EARLY PERIODS. THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS \r\nA BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 33.5N  81.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 35.7N  77.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 38.5N  72.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 41.0N  65.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 44.5N  57.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 52.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 57.0N  22.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 60.0N  13.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alberto","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-06-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUN 14 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTO IS BECOMING ELONGATED. \r\nADDITIONALLY...SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE MORE THAN 5 DEGREE C\r\nTEMPERATURE GRADIENT HAS FORMED ACROSS THE CENTER.  THESE ARE BOTH\r\nEARMARKS OF THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ALBERTO ISSUED BY\r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS\r\nIT EMERGES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. IN FACT...A\r\nCOUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING EXTRATROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nONLY COSMETIC CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NHC\r\nTRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nALBERTO STILL POSES A SIGNIFICANT FRESHWATER FLOODING THREAT ACROSS\r\nPORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE\r\nFLOOD THREAT WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AS WELL AS PRODUCTS FROM\r\nLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 35.0N  79.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 37.0N  75.4W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 39.8N  68.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 43.0N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 46.0N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 53.0N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 56.0N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 57.0N  10.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH INFORMATION\r\nFROM SURROUNDING BUOYS...INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED\r\nABOUT 250 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST HAS BECOME MUCH\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED SEVERAL 20-25 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM AS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/04...MAINLY\r\nDUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...\r\nLONG TERM SATELLITE LOOPS AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A GENERAL\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD MOTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE PAST 6-9 HOURS. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS\r\nLIES ALONG ABOUT 35N LATITUDE. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE KEYED\r\nON A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF\r\nTD-2. THAT SYSTEM SHOWS NO SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. THE ONLY MODELS\r\nTHAT HAVE INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM WITH ANY REASONABLE ACCURACY\r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS BEEN THE NAM AND UKMET MODELS. THE 3\r\nGFS-BASED BAM MODELS ARE ALMOST ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AND TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE INTO NORTH CAROLINA NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT IN 36-48 HOURS. THE\r\nNAM AND UKMET MOVE THE SYSTEM OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS\r\nPREFERRED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR SOUTH\r\nAN UPPER-LOW WILL DIG THAT IS CURRENTLY SITUATED WEST-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION. IF THE UPPER-LOW DIGS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN\r\nFORECAST BY THE MODELS...THEN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR\r\nTO THE BAM MODELS COULD OCCUR. DUE TO THE THIS UNCERTAINTY...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF\r\nNORTH CAROLINA.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO ABOUT 45 KT IN 48 HOURS. HOWEVER... THIS\r\nCONSERVATIVE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE DUE IN PART TO POORLY\r\nINITIALIZED SST CONDITIONS. THE SHIPS MODEL CURRENTLY INDICATES THE\r\nSYSTEM IS OVER 80F SSTS...WHEREAS SURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY DATA\r\nINDICATE SSTS ARE 82-83F UNDER THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE. IN\r\nADDITION...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE\r\nWILL BE POOR AT BEST AND... THEREFORE... A NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTING\r\nFACTOR. IN CONTRAST...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHWEST... WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ENHANCE THE\r\nOUTFLOW TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE DEVELOPING OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 32.5N  73.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 33.3N  73.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 33.9N  74.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 34.7N  74.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 35.5N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 36.9N  74.7W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 38.5N  71.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 42.0N  63.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. RECENT DATA FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT THAT CAME IN AFTER SOME OF THE FORECAST PRODUCTS WERE\r\nISSUED INDICATE 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007 MB. THIS CORRESPONDS\r\nTO AT LEAST 35 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...\r\nOR TCU PRODUCT... WILL ISSUED SHORTLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nNOW TROPICAL STORM BERYL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/05. THE GLOBAL MODELS AT 12Z\r\nAGAIN DID NOT INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE VERY WELL AND...AS A\r\nRESULT ...GRADUALLY SHEAR OUT A VERY WEAK SYSTEM NORTHWARD THROUGH\r\n36-48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN GRADUALLY TURN IT NORTHEASTWARD. UNTIL\r\nTHE MODELS SHOW THAT THEY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL STATE\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM...I AM LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND\r\nTHE BAM MODELS ON THE CYCLONE MAKING A SLIGHT S-BEND IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nALL THE MODELS WHICH INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nGREAT LAKES DIGGING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODING THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. THE\r\nMODELS ALSO AGREE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BUILD WESTWARD SLIGHTLY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ONGOING\r\nRIGHT NOW BASED ON TRENDS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHT RISES\r\nTO THE EAST SHOULD IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE EAST.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND BECOME MORE\r\nSYMMETRICAL. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE ONLY 1 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN MOST CASES. ALTHOUGH SSTS APPEAR TO BE\r\nWARMER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS MODEL IS USING...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE MAY MODULATE THE NORMAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nTREND FOR A SYSTEM LIKE THIS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW BRINGS THE\r\nCYCLONE UP TO 50 KT IN 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 33.3N  73.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 33.7N  73.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 34.4N  74.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 35.2N  74.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 36.0N  74.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 37.4N  73.4W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 39.5N  68.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 42.5N  60.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006\r\n \r\nLAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL IS NOT CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED\r\nTO A CURVED BAND MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...IT\r\nSEEMS THAT THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT ATTACHED TO A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE\r\nIS A CHANCE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BERYL SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS OR LESS.          \r\n\r\nBERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OF 350 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN\r\nGRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN\r\nBETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. SINCE\r\nMOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURN BERYL TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...I AM\r\nKEEPING THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH UNTIL A DEFINITIVE TREND AWAY FROM\r\nCOAST BEGINS. THIS TREND COULD BEGIN AS SOON AS EARLY WEDNESDAY. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 34.1N  73.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 35.0N  73.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 36.0N  73.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 37.5N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  71.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 42.0N  67.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 43.0N  61.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 44.5N  56.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER WOBBLED A BIT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT\r\nA RECENT FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH...I.E. 360/6.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING BY THE LONGITUDE OF BERYL AND\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE\r\nSYSTEM IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING IN\r\nPLACE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...OUT OF RESPECT FOR A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nGFDL AND GFS TRACKS.  HOWEVER BOTH OF THESE MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK\r\nSYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND IN FACT THE GFS SUGGEST THAT BERYL\r\nWILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH AN APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\n2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nTRACK WHICH APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON THE\r\nSTEERING SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE.  BERYL IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HOLDING STEADY NEAR\r\n1005 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THIS JUST SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.   \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE BROAD CENTER BUT THE\r\nTOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN 25-27\r\nDEG C RANGE ALONG THE TRACK OF BERYL FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS SO\r\nTHERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER\r\nANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGES SHOW CIRRUS ELEMENTS MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE STORM...INDICATIVE OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GIVEN THE MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH APPEARS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IS BEING KEPT\r\nAS A PRECAUTION AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 34.7N  73.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 35.7N  73.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 36.9N  73.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 38.6N  72.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 40.3N  70.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 44.0N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 47.0N  55.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BERYL THIS MORNING\r\nINDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD DROPPED ANOTHER MILLIBAR DOWN TO 1004\r\nMB. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB WERE 52 KT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT\r\nIN CONVECTION...AND THAT IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR INCREASING THE\r\nINTENSITY TO 40 KT. ALSO...THE CORRECT PRONUNCIATION OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM BERYL IS BERLE... LIKE THE LAST NAME OF MILTON BERLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/08 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF RECON\r\n...SATELLITE...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AT 12Z SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER MAY BE UNDERGOING SOME RE-ORGANIZATION CLOSER TO A BAND OF\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION THAT HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AS\r\nA RESULT... THERE MAY BE SOME WOBBLING TO THE WEST UNTIL CONVECTION\r\nWRAPS AROUND THE EAST SIDE... BUT THE OVERALL MOTION SHOULD BE\r\nNORTHERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM. IN THE LONGER TERM... THE FORECAST TRACK HINGES HEAVILY ON\r\nTHE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF BERYL. THE GFDL...GFS...AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS MOVE A VERY WEAK BERYL ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW\r\nENGLAND...WHEREAS THE UKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER MORE OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS KEEP\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WELL OFFSHORE. SINCE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM... THE LATTER SOLUTION OF KEEPING\r\nTHE CENTER OFFSHORE IS PREFERRED GIVEN THE LARGE SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND MOVE IT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE IMPROVED... AS HAS\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN. BERYL IS ALSO MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST\r\nWATER ALONG ITS PAST AND FUTURE TRACK. HOWEVER... THESE FAVORABLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE BERYL MOVES OVER\r\nMUCH COOLER WATER BY 24H...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING AS\r\nBERYL TRANSITIONS OVER TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 35.6N  73.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 36.6N  73.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 37.9N  73.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 39.6N  71.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 41.3N  68.6W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 44.9N  61.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 47.0N  52.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST RECON PASS AROUND 2030Z INDICATED A 57 KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002\r\nMB. ALSO...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT REPORTED A\r\nSURFACE WIND OF 49 KT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVING\r\nSTRUCTURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/07 KT. RADAR AND SATELLITE POSITION\r\nESTIMATES HAVE BEEN COMING IN 12-18 NMI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF RECON\r\nPOSITIONS...INDICATING SOME NORTHWESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX\r\nCOLUMN. BUT OVERALL...BERYL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE\r\nNORTH FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS BERYL MOVES NORTHWARD\r\nTHROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED MAINLY\r\nBY DEEP SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR-DERIVED\r\nWINDS FROM UW-CIMSS. MOST OF THE MODELS TAKE A WEAK AND VERTICALLY\r\nSHALLOW BERYL INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ANYWHERE FROM NEW\r\nJERSEY EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE\r\nCANADIAN MODEL AND ESPECIALLY THE UKMET MODEL. HOWEVER... ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS KEEP THE 500 MB CIRCULATION CENTER WELL OFFSHORE LONG\r\nISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. MY FEELING IS THAT BERYL\r\nWILL REMAIN A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM AND...THEREFORE... BE\r\nSTEERED MORE NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nAPPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TWO FORECAST TRACKS AND THE UKMET AND CANADIAN MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUNA MODEL. SHOULD BERYL\r\nMOVE TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK... IT IS LIKELY TO\r\nDO SO AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND SOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS\r\nOVER WARM WATER. BY 24-36 HOURS...BERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C\r\nSSTS RESULTING IN A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY OF THE STORM TO THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND THE EXPECTED\r\nCONTINUED INFLUX OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ACT TO BOTH KEEP THE INTENSITY HIGHER THAN NORMAL AND\r\nMAINTAIN A DEEP VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PARAGRAPH.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE ANTICIPATED CLOSE APPROACH OF BERYL TO EXTREME\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING\r\nISSUED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 36.3N  73.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 37.4N  73.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 38.7N  72.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 40.3N  70.4W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 42.1N  67.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 45.4N  59.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE REPEATED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO THE CENTER\r\nLATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...REPORTS FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THROUGH 00Z INDICATED THAT BERYL HAD NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED ANY FURTHER.  HOWEVER...SHIP AND AIRCRAFT DATA DO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED A\r\nBIT.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM AT 06Z. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/8.  A NUMBER OF MODELS FROM EARLIER\r\nTODAY...INCLUDING THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND MOST PROMINENTLY THE\r\nGFDL...WERE FORECASTING A NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHAT DID NOT OCCUR AND THEREFORE AT 00Z WERE NEARLY A DEGREE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE ACTUAL POSITION.  STILL...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED BY A\r\nTEMPORARY LEFTWARD JOG OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THAT THE\r\nSTRONGEST CONVECTION IS STILL NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...\r\nBERYL IS ROUNDING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE FEELING THE\r\nMID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...ANY TURN BACK TO\r\nTHE NORTH SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...ADJUSTED FOR INITIAL POSITION ERROR...KEEP THE CENTER OF\r\nBERYL OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nINCREASING WESTERLIES.  THE GFDL IS THE PRIMARY OUTLIER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS TIME FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...BUT BY THIS TIME TOMORROW BERYL WILL BE OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATERS.  IN ADDITION...A SHARP 200 MB TROUGH WILL BE OVERTAKING THE\r\nCYCLONE...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  BY THE TIME BERYL MAKES ITS\r\nCLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COASTLINE...I WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE\r\nWEAKENING.  FURTHER...THE REVERSAL IN THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD\r\nRESTRICT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS TO THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AS IT PASSES.  CONSEQUENTLY...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR\r\nWARNING IS BEING ISSUED FOR LONG ISLAND AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...\r\nIT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SHORT-FUSED TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED IN THE MORNING. \r\n\r\nREGARDING THE PRONUNCIATION OF BERYL...A REVIEW OF SEVERAL\r\nDICTIONARIES SHOWS THAT BOTH BER'-IL AND BURL ARE ACCEPTED\r\nPRONUNCIATIONS...AND IN FACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DIRECTIVE\r\nSPECIFIES THE FORMER...TWO SYLLABLE...PRONUNCIATION. THE ONLY BERYL\r\nI PERSONALLY KNOW ALSO PRONOUNCES IT BER'-IL. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY\r\nCONFUSION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 37.0N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 38.1N  72.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 39.6N  71.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 41.5N  68.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 43.7N  64.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n500 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR SIGNATURE OF BERYL ON THE DOVER DELAWARE WSR-88D HAS\r\nIMPROVED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A PROMINENT\r\nAND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHIS MAY HAVE CAUSED A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...AS THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND BERYL WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 64 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  A DROPSONDE IN THIS AREA ALSO MEASURED 47 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/8.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT BERYL IS ABOUT TO ENTER THE WESTERLIES...WITH CIRRUS\r\nCLOUDS AND DRY PATCHES OF AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOCATED WEST\r\nOF THE STORM NOW BLOWING TOWARD IT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE\r\nGENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA. \r\nMOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK JUST SOUTH\r\nOF NANTUCKET AND OVER NOVA SCOTIA...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nNUDGED TO THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS AS WELL AS THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND THE GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN LEFT OUTLIERS...CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF\r\nBERYL TO ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND.\r\n\r\nBERYL IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE\r\nAPPROACH OF A COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN\r\n36-48 HR...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE\r\nFRONTAL ZONE BEYOND THAT TIME.  WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST NO\r\nLONGER CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING...SOME SHORT-LIVED STRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR TODAY.\r\n\r\nIF BERYL MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...\r\nADDITIONAL WATCHES OF WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LONG ISLAND AND\r\nPORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 37.8N  73.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 39.0N  72.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 40.6N  70.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 42.7N  67.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 45.5N  62.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FROM ABOUT 3 HOURS AGO...\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT BERYL HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED IN INTENSITY AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN AT 50 KNOTS. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DECREASE AS A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nMOVES OVER INCREASING COOLER WATERS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BERYL HAS\r\nREACHED PEAK INTENSITY AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\nBERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT\r\nAPPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nBERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 11\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.\r\nTHEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nPASSING VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY\r\nFRIDAY. HOWEVER...BECAUSE BERYL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL...MOST OF THE RAINFALL WILL EXTEND WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT IS COMMON IN THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nDUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL\r\nDEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT AND\r\nRHODE ISLAND.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 38.8N  72.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 39.8N  72.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 41.7N  69.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 43.5N  65.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n \r\nTHE MINIMUM PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB\r\nAND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 56 KNOTS.\r\nBECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS OVER COOL WATERS...THESE WINDS MOST LIKELY\r\nARE NOT REACHING THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. BERYL'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED\r\nCONSIDERABLY AND IS BECOMING A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WHICH IS\r\nTYPICAL OF CYCLONES MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE AND BERYL SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24\r\nHOURS AS IT APPROACHES NOVA SCOTIA.\r\n \r\nBERYL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE...A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING\r\nVERY NEAR  NANTUCKET AND EASTERN CAPE COD LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY\r\nFRIDAY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAINS EXTEND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER OR JUST SOUTH\r\nSOUTHEASTERN OF CAPE COD.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 39.6N  72.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 41.0N  70.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 43.0N  67.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 46.0N  61.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING\r\nAND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. DESPITE\r\nBERYL'S RAGGED APPEARANCE... THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 54 KT FROM 850\r\nMB AT 2314 UTC... WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 45 KT AT THE SURFACE\r\nUSING STANDARD REDUCTION FACTORS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS FROM A DROPSONDE\r\nVERY NEAR THAT LOCATION IN THE MAXIMUM WIND BAND ALSO SUPPORTED\r\nSURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT... A LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE LACK\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COLD WATERS LESS THAN 22C AND GENERALLY\r\nINCREASING SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A\r\nDAY OR SO DUE TO THE ABOVE FACTORS.\r\n \r\nBERYL IS MOVING 040/11...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  ON\r\nTHIS HEADING BERYL WILL BE PASSING VERY NEAR NANTUCKET AND\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CAPE COD IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AFTER IT DEPARTS SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK SOLUTION AND\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  WIND RADII BEYOND 12\r\nHOURS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED IN ACCORDANCE WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING\r\nMOST OF THE WIND ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT\r\nOF BERYL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 40.2N  71.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 41.9N  69.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 44.8N  64.3W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 47.5N  58.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERYL IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTHIS MORNING...WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO A FEW\r\nBANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 67-KT WINDS AT 850 MB IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  HOWEVER...COMPARISON OF THE AIRCRAFT WINDS WITH SURFACE\r\nDATA FROM NANTUCKET AND NEARBY NOAA BUOYS SUGGESTS THAT ONLY 50-60\r\nPERCENT OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.\r\nTHIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE OVERALL LACK\r\nOF CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED MAINLY ON A\r\n42-KT DROPSONDE WIND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/16.  BERYL IS ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nIN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING\r\nEASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.  THIS MOTION TREND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CYCLONE'S LIFE.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THEREFORE... THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AS WELL...ABOUT HALFWAY\r\nBETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT BERYL IS STARTING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  THE STORM SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...THEN IT SHOULD GET\r\nABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 41.7N  69.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 43.7N  66.6W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 46.7N  61.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 49.5N  55.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH BERYL IS BECOMING\r\nDETACHED FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AS THE CYCLONE ACQUIRES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SINCE THE CENTER IS BECOMING\r\nELONGATED THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 045\r\nDEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. BERYL SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CROSS NOVA SCOTIA TODAY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nFOR WEATHER DETAILS IN NOVA SCOTIA SEE STATEMENTS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCANADA.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON BERYL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE\r\nFOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 43.1N  67.4W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 45.0N  64.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 48.0N  59.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUL 31 2006\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM FRENCH BUOY 41100 LATE THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT\r\nTHERE WAS A WEAK CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE\r\nAPPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z CONFIRMED\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION EXISTED BUT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION WAS VERY SMALL.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED\r\nON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR RESULTING PRIMARILY FROM\r\nSTRONG EASTERLIES IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE.  THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT\r\nAHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED...AND THE EVOLUTION OF A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LOW JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL BE IMPORTANT TO THE\r\nFUTURE OF THE DEPRESSION.  SOME GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY THE\r\nUKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP A STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEARING FLOW IN PLACE IN THE PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.  OTHER GLOBAL\r\nMODELS RELAX THIS FLOW...BUT IT MAY NOT MATTER MUCH...AS THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO DEAL WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\nDISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...AS DO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS A VERY SLOW DEVELOPMENT TREND...BUT PERHAPS THIS MODEL\r\nCANNOT APPRECIATE JUST HOW FRAGILE A SYSTEM THE DEPRESSION IS RIGHT\r\nNOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE THAT\r\nSUGGESTS THIS CYCLONE MAY BE SHORT LIVED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14.  THE DOMINANT STEERING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE PROVIDED BY THE MID- TO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 16.6N  59.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.4N  61.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.3N  63.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 19.2N  65.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 20.1N  67.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N  71.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA THIS MORNING ESTIMATE THAT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM\r\nCHRIS...WHILE ALSO DECREASING ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY OF T2.5/35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5 FROM SAB...AND TWO CONSECUTIVE\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES 35-36 KT. SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH DEPTH\r\nAND ORGANIZATION AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. NOW THAT CHRIS HAS\r\nBECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE STEERED IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS\r\nLOCATED NORTH OF CHRIS AND WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FUTURE\r\nTRACK OF CHRIS HINGES HEAVILY UPON JUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMES. MY FEELING NOW IS THAT CHRIS SHOULD REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE 120-H FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS IN\r\nCONTRAST TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL. BY 72\r\nHOURS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND BE DRIVEN\r\nWESTWARD OVER OR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA...OR DISSIPATE COMPLETELY.\r\nPART OF THE RAPID DISSIPATION FORECAST BY THE MODELS MAY BE DUE TO\r\nPOOR INITIALIZATION. A STRONGER AND SOMEWHAT LARGER CYCLONE MAY\r\nRESULT IN A DIFFERENT PROGNOSIS OF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH IT NOW\r\nEXTENDS OUT TO 120 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING CHRIS IS FORECAST BY ALL\r\nTHE MODELS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME\r\nSLOW SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN DILEMMA IS JUST HOW STRONG CHRIS\r\nWILL BECOME. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO PASS BETWEEN TWO MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOWS CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TWO LOWS\r\nAND THEN MOVE THEM IN TANDEM WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS... WITH CHRIS\r\nLIKELY WEDGED IN BETWEEN. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR\r\nA LOW SHEAR PATTERN THAT WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR MORE STRENGTHENING\r\nTHAN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...BUT ONLY IF CHRIS REMAINS EXACTLY\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A REVERSAL OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 16.6N  59.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 17.3N  61.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.2N  63.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  65.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N  67.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N  71.2W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N  74.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 24.0N  77.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nBASED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SHOW SOME FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED\r\nSPIRAL RAIN BANDS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 35 KT...35 KT...AND 25 KT RESPECTIVELY. \r\nSINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF STRENGTHENING...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.  CHRIS IS IN A RATHER ANTICYCLONIC\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS EVIDENCED BY HIGH SEA LEVEL\r\nPRESSURES OVER THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN\r\nFACT...THE 850 MB ENVIRONMENTAL VORTICITY IS A SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE\r\nPREDICTOR IN THE 12Z SHIPS MODEL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR CHRIS. \r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND THIS IS\r\nINHIBITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  AS\r\nNOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CHRIS COULD BECOME FAVORABLY\r\nSITUATED IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS MIGHT LEAD TO A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT\r\nWOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND IS ABOVE THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONSENSUS...ICON.  IT SHOULD NOTED THAT THE\r\nGFS...U.K. MET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY\r\nDISSIPATE CHRIS WITHIN 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nEVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER IS NOT\r\nWELL-DEFINED.  HOWEVER THE ADVISORY LOCATION IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GUADELOUPE RADAR OBSERVATIONS.  INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 295/9.  CHRIS IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW...IS NOW IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE.  THIS WEAKNESS IS\r\nFORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WHILE A RIDGE IS MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH\r\nOF CHRIS.  THIS STEERING REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECON ARE SCHEDULED TO MAKE AN 1800 UTC FIX ON CHRIS.  WE\r\nEXPECT THE AIRCRAFT DATA TO PROVIDE US WITH A BETTER HANDLE ON THE\r\nLOCATION...STRENGTH...AND STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER\r\nTODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 17.3N  60.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N  61.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.8N  64.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.7N  66.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.4N  68.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.7N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N  75.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 24.0N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nON THE FIRST AIRCRAFT MISSION INTO CHRIS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nUNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A VERY SMALL CORE OF STRONG WINDS WITH\r\nA CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.  THIS IS ACTUALLY A RATHER LOW\r\nPRESSURE CONSIDERING THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL BAROMETER READINGS. \r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 53 KT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  BASED ON THE STANDARD 80 PERCENT REDUCTION FROM THE 1000\r\nFT FLIGHT LEVEL THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY STABLE...SOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A WELL-MARKED\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFROM CHRIS...AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF OUTFLOW IS ALSO EVIDENT OVER THE\r\nEASTERN QUADRANT.  THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT COULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  ADDITIONALLY THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL THE MODELED CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH\r\nHISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH DOES SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS WITH A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF 70W LONGITUDE.  THE TROUGH\r\nNEAR 70W IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME SO THAT THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED...OR EVEN\r\nSTRENGTHENED.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nSHIFTING TO THE LEFT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...MOST LIKELY IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nTHIS IS NORTH OF THE LATEST DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE\r\nU.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR\r\nTHE NORTHERN LEEWARDS IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER OF CHRIS PASSES JUST TO THE NORTH\r\nOF SOME OF THESE ISLANDS...RATHER STRONG WINDS COULD BE EXPERIENCED\r\nIN THE ISLANDS DUE TO RAIN BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nTHE STORM.  IN FACT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST\r\nWEATHER IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 17.7N  61.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.3N  62.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.1N  64.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N  66.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  68.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N  77.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 23.5N  80.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-01 21:30:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD\r\nTO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY\r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS.  ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB.  THE FORECAST WIND\r\nSPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT.  ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE\r\nUSING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE\r\nWARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2130Z 18.0N  61.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N  62.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.1N  64.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N  66.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  68.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N  77.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 23.5N  80.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nCHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE GRADUALLY GAINED ORGANIZATION TONIGHT.  THE\r\nSERIES OF AIRCRAFT FIXES LEADING UP TO 00Z BOUNCED AROUND QUITE A\r\nBIT...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT SURE IF THAT WAS DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...SMALLER VORTICES ROTATING ABOUT A MEAN CENTER...OR SOME\r\nCOMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS.  IN ANY EVENT...DURING THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE MEAN\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH IS A CHANGE FROM EARLIER TONIGHT WHEN\r\nTHE CONVECTION WAS CONFINED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nSTRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATION...SINCE THE PEAK VALUE\r\nOF 64 KT AT 2042Z...HAS BEEN 59 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT ABOUT\r\n2235Z.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z WAS\r\nSTILL 1003 MB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  THIS\r\nESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE CHRIS WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH THE SCATTERED AIRCRAFT FIXES STILL YIELDS AN\r\nESTIMATED FORWARD MOTION OF 295/9.  IN THE BIG PICTURE...THERE\r\nSHOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF CHRIS CONTINUES ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...GIVEN THE\r\nSTRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGING FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER... THE\r\nDETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS.  FOR ONE... IF CHRIS\r\nTAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE... THE STORM COULD WEAKEN OVER HISPANIOLA AND/OR\r\nCUBA.  IF ON THE OTHER HAND CHRIS REMAINS OVER THE WARM WATERS JUST\r\nNORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COULD\r\nREMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR CHRIS TO REACH AND PERHAPS MAINTAIN HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK...INCLUDING THE PREVIOUS ONE...WHICH WOULD TAKE CHRIS BENEATH\r\nA NARROW EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND LESSEN THE\r\nEFFECTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR THAT WOULD BE FELT FARTHER NORTH.  IF\r\nCHRIS WERE TO TAKE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK THAN SHOWN BELOW...THE\r\nSHEAR WOULD BE STRONGER AND LESS SUPPORTIVE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBUT FORECASTS A HURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER. IT IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL SINCE THAT MODEL WEAKENS\r\nCHRIS OVER LAND.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 18.3N  61.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.9N  63.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N  65.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.1N  67.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N  69.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  77.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 23.5N  81.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG\r\nWITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...\r\nINDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR\r\nIMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED...\r\nTHIS HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...YET. A PASS\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTER OF CHRIS AROUND 0745Z REVEALED AN ESTIMATED\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 62\r\nKT. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB FORM EARLIER FLIGHTS...THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL YIELD ONLY A 50-KT SURFACE WIND.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION\r\nFROM THE LAST SEVERAL RECON FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 310/11.\r\nOVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE\r\nBERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN HOW THE MODELS\r\nHANDLE THE STRENGTH OF CHRIS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NOGAPS...NOW HANG\r\nONTO CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A SMALL COMPACT ONE. THE\r\nGFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MADE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND ARE NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALSO\r\nSHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NO LONGER TAKE CHRIS ACROSS THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nALMOST IMMEDIATELY TAKES CHRIS DUE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF\r\nPUERTO RICO AND INTO HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING A LARGE OUTLIER. IT\r\nSHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP\r\nOF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE\r\nTO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND\r\nEAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT\r\nCAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS\r\nTIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE\r\nVIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG RAIN BAND\r\nDEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS AND MOVING OVER THOSE AREAS\r\nLATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 18.8N  62.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.4N  64.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N  65.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.6N  67.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.2N  69.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 22.2N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 23.3N  77.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 24.5N  82.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9\r\nKT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST\r\nRECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF\r\n3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS\r\nCONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR.  ON THE\r\nPREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE\r\nGFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.\r\nAS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL.\r\n \r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR\r\nSPEED.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\nTHE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS\r\nTO THE NORTH OF CHRIS.  THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER AN\r\nEVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD.  INDEED...\r\nTHIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE\r\nSYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE.  WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A\r\nHIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO\r\nUSE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 19.2N  63.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.8N  64.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N  66.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.8N  68.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.4N  70.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 22.5N  74.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 23.5N  79.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 24.5N  83.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT\r\nCHRIS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE.  MAXIMUM 850 MB  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nWERE 55 KT AND A DROPSONDE SHOWED A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF 55 KT\r\nWINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. \r\nTHE VERY SMALL INNER CORE...I.E. RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ORDER\r\n10 N MI...THAT WAS OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS DISAPPEARED. \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL DATA NOW SHOW THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 30 TO 40 N\r\nMI FROM THE CENTER.  ALSO THE PRESENTATION FROM THE SAN JUAN\r\nWSR-88D DOPPLER SUGGESTS A LESS-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN\r\nEARLY THIS MORNING...AND ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS ARC CLOUDS EMANATING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE STORM.  ALL OF\r\nTHE ABOVE SUGGEST THAT LITTLE INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...THE WIND MAXIMUM COULD CONTRACT AND\r\nINTENSIFICATION RESUME.  NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO\r\nAFFECT THE STORM AND...BASED ON THE RECON FIX...WHICH IS NEAR THE\r\n5000 FT LEVEL...AND THE RADAR FIXES...WHICH ARE NEAR THE 25000 FT\r\nLEVEL...THE VORTEX IS TILTED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.  THE\r\nGFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FAIRLY CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION OF CHRIS...WITH THE STORM LOCATED BETWEEN TWO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOWS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER OTHER GLOBAL\r\nMODELS....SUCH AS THE U.K. MET... SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER WINDS MAY\r\nNOT BE SO CONDUCIVE.  THE LATTER GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT CHRIS\r\nCOULD ENCOUNTER A SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR\r\nAXIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN AROUND 48 HOURS.  THE CURRENT\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE\r\nIN COMPARISON TO THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES...AND IS STILL A LITTLE\r\nABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n300/9.  BASED ON THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS IS PREDICTED TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD...AND THE DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nCHRIS IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN.  CONSISTENT WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE\r\nBUILDING TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...THE MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR A\r\nMORE WESTWARD MOTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nGFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE THE SOUTHERNMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nAND THE U.K. MET. IS THE NORTHERNMOST...HOWEVER THE LATTER MODEL\r\nLOSES THE CIRCULATION AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAYS 4-5.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 19.9N  64.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 20.4N  65.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N  67.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N  69.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.7N  71.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 23.5N  80.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  84.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nCHRIS HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING...AS INDICATED BY A SERIES OF\r\nAIRCRAFT RECON FIXES ENDING AROUND 00Z...WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM\r\nSAN JUAN...AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY.  WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...THE RADAR IMAGERY EVEN SUGGESTS A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST.  FOR NOW I WILL CONSIDER THAT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AS A\r\nWOBBLE AND ESTIMATE THE INITIAL MOTION TO BE WESTWARD OR 270\r\nDEGREES AT 7 KT.  THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL TO FORECAST A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE GFDL...AND ITS SOUTHERN\r\nTRACK SOLUTION NO LONGER SEEMS SO MUCH OF AN OUTLIER. \r\nALSO...OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED\r\nSOUTH...SEEMINGLY IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF CHRIS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE REMAINING MODELS...NOT AS\r\nFAR SOUTH AS THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nCHRIS HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY PRODUCING VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER THIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80C.\r\nWSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS\r\nDEPICTED A CIRCULATION NEAR 25000 FT IN ALTITUDE.  THE LAST FIX FROM\r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT AROUND 00Z LOCATED THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THAT FEATURE...WITH A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. \r\nIN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY IN THE\r\nPERIOD BEFORE IT POSSIBLY INTERACTS WITH THE LANDMASSES OF THE\r\nGREATER ANTILLES.  FOLLOWING THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...CHRIS\r\nWOULD PASS OVER LAND LONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...IF IT LASTS THAT\r\nLONG.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 19.8N  64.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.1N  66.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.4N  68.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.8N  70.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 21.2N  72.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 22.0N  77.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  82.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 23.5N  87.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nCHRIS IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED IN A HURRY. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY\r\nFIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nHAS RISEN TO 1010 MB AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED SO\r\nFAR IS ONLY 38 KNOTS. HOWEVER...ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS... AND THIS IS VERY GENEROUS.  I WAS TEMPTED\r\nTO FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVEN DISSIPATION OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...BUT THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nSTEADY STATE CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHRIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. ACCORDING TO ALL GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...A STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE...CHRIS...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...VERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND\r\nEVENTUALLY REACH THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. THE\r\nDILEMMA IS THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. IT COULD WEAKEN\r\nFURTHER AND DISSIPATE OR COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH. I AM IN FAVOR\r\nOF WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 20.3N  66.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  68.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N  70.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 21.2N  72.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N  74.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 22.5N  79.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 23.0N  84.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 23.5N  89.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR...ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS\r\nTAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  CHRIS IS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 75 N MI RADIUS OF THE CENTER.  SOME HEAVY\r\nSHOWERS CONTINUE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND ARE AFFECTING PUERTO\r\nRICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO SPREAD\r\nWESTWARD INTO HISPANIOLA TODAY.\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT\r\nCHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  IF\r\nIT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST RETAINS THE\r\nSYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A\r\nPRECAUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION...SINCE\r\nTHE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...IF PRESENT TRENDS\r\nCONTINUE...CHRIS COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT.  A\r\nWELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF CHRIS...OR ITS REMNANT...THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS STEERING REGIME WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM ON\r\nA 280-285 DEGREE HEADING AT ROUGHLY 10-12 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT\r\nTOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.5N  67.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N  68.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.1N  70.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 21.4N  73.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  75.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N  80.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 24.0N  85.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  90.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND WINDS OF 39 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 800\r\nFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS.  USING STANDARD REDUCTION\r\nVALUES THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  SINCE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE A FEW\r\nSPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...CHRIS\r\nIS NOT BEING DOWNGRADED ON THIS PACKAGE.  A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS\r\nREDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS\r\nCONVECTION WAS NOT VERY DEEP.  ASSUMING THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nSPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM MAY\r\nHAVE WEAKENED TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME BACK. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DISSIPATION AND\r\nREGENERATION.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  CHRIS OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 20.7N  68.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N  69.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N  72.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.7N  74.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 22.2N  76.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 23.3N  82.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  87.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 25.5N  92.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF\r\nCHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN\r\nADDITION...THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL\r\nBETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER FLORIDA AND\r\nTHE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS\r\nREMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST\r\nMAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO\r\nINDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SINCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM IS A\r\nRELATIVELY NEW FEATURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INDICATE\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND SHIPS. IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH\r\nCUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF\r\nOF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING\r\nTHAT PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nA LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE\r\nMOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS\r\nALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF\r\nRIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nTONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD\r\nAS WELL.  THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS.  AFTER\r\nTHE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nHIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH\r\nCOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 20.8N  69.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  70.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.4N  73.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  76.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 22.3N  78.9W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 23.5N  84.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 24.5N  89.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  94.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006\r\n\r\nCHRIS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY\r\nWEAKENING.  A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE\r\nCYCLONE AND FOUND A 53 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND.  HOWEVER...THE WIND\r\nWAS MEASURED IN A THUNDERSTORM WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE\r\nACTUAL INTENSITY.  OVERALL THE AIRCRAFT HAS ONLY MEASURED 30 TO 35\r\nKT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY\r\nSUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CENTER...SO THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  HOWEVER...CHRIS COULD EASILY BE\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...AND\r\nIS STILL BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE SHEAR.  A POSSIBILITY EXISTS\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX IN THE NEAR TERM WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN\r\nCHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...AND THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION OF THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\nMOST OF THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION.  \r\n\r\nTHE 6-HOURLY AVERAGED MOTION IS 275/13...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nMOTION THAN EARLIER.  THE STEERING PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED AND\r\nCHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTERLY TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...IF IT LASTS THAT LONG.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 20.9N  70.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 21.2N  72.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N  75.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  78.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  80.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N  85.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 24.5N  91.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  96.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chris","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006\r\n\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON CHRIS THIS\r\nMORNING.  IN FACT...BETWEEN 0900 UTC AND 1130 UTC...RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT ONLY MEASURED 29 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  THEREFORE...\r\nCHRIS WAS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION ON THE INTERMEDIATE\r\nADVISORY AND WILL RETAIN THIS INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THIS\r\nCOULD EVEN BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ONLY INDICATED ABOUT 25 KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nCHRIS REMAINS SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND IT DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX. HOWEVER...IT\r\nWOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR CHRIS TO RESTRENGHTEN BACK TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS IF NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS IN THIS POSSIBILITY.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS CHRIS AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES\r\nALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT IF CHRIS SURVIVES THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IT MAY\r\nNOT...IT MIGHT ENTER A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO BUT IS A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN BOTH\r\nOF THESE MODELS.\r\n\r\nCHRIS TOOK A NORTHWESTWARD JOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT A 12-HOUR\r\nMOTION YIELDS 280/11 KT.  CHRIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. IN FACT...THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES BEYOND DAY 3\r\nWHICH SHOULD KEEP CHRIS ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  IT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 21.3N  71.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 21.6N  73.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 22.0N  76.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  78.6W    35 KT...NEAR CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 23.2N  81.3W    35 KT...NEAR CUBA \r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 24.3N  86.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  91.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  97.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chris","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME\r\nFINDING THE CENTER AT 850 MB.  DROPSONDES NEAR THE ESTIMATED 850 MB\r\nCENTER INDICATED LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ADVISORIES WILL\r\nCONTINUE.  FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT\r\nBASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM\r\nGRAND TURK.\r\n\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT ANY CONVECTION \r\nTRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER.  GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS \r\nWEAKER THAN IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT\r\nINDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO\r\nNEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS \r\nCLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY\r\nCONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY\r\nNOT HAPPEN.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A \r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 21.4N  72.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 21.7N  74.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 22.1N  76.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  79.4W    30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 23.2N  82.0W    30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 24.2N  87.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 25.0N  92.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 25.5N  98.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chris","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006\r\n \r\nPUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN FORMING IN THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF CHRIS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THESE BURSTS HAVE BEEN\r\nSHORT-LIVED AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE THAT THEY ARE CONTRIBUTING TO\r\nA REJUVENATION OF THE SYSTEM.  IN FACT THE LATEST SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ALMOST GONE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH DECREASING\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES...A 2312 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...AND A\r\nRECENT SHIP OBSERVATION OF 24 KT IN A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED... MOST\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL JUST GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.\r\nONE FACTOR ON WHY THE MODELS DISSIPATE CHRIS MIGHT BE THE LACK OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH WOULD TEND TO LIMIT\r\nCHRIS' CONVECTION. SHIPS ALSO DIAGNOSES UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS\r\nA SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF CHRIS.\r\nIN ADDITION...INTERACTION WITH CUBA COULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM. IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO..\r\nIT WOULD BE PASSING OVER WARMER WATER AND EXPERIENCING LIGHT SHEAR.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST GENEROUSLY ASSUMES THAT CHRIS WILL HANG ON\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE\r\nWEAKENED STATE OF CHRIS...IT COULD CERTAINLY DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME.  \r\n \r\nMOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS IS OBSCURED WITH A THIN VEIL OF\r\nCIRRUS CLOUDS...MAKING THE CENTER RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND.  BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE\r\nWEST.. 280/11.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...\r\nPROBABLY DUE TO A STRONG LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THAT IS PROVIDING WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS.  A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS FORESEEN IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO A STRONG\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES.  A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST... CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW MODEL WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE\r\nFOR THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 21.6N  74.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  75.8W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 22.2N  78.3W    25 KT...NEAR CUBA\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 22.8N  81.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 23.3N  83.8W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 24.0N  89.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 24.5N  94.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 25.0N  99.5W    20 KT...INLAND AND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Chris","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2006\r\n \r\nTHIS IS GOING TO BE SHORT AND SWEET. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE LOW WILL\r\nLIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATING LATER TODAY.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS WERE CORRECT INDEED IN FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER CUBA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON CHRIS UNLESS\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 21.5N  75.6W    20 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 21.5N  77.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS\r\nBEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING TODAY TO WARRANT DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z.  SINCE THEN...A\r\nSMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  GIVEN THIS...AND THE BROAD CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE\r\nLOW...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nSLIDE EASTWARD AS A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND ERODE THE RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO TAKE A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE BAM SUITE OF MODELS.  NEITHER\r\nTHE UKMET NOR NOGAPS HANG ON TO THE CYCLONE AND THESE MODELS TAKE\r\nITS REMNANTS WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nOUTER BANDING STRUCTURES ARE WELL DEFINED...BUT OVERALL THE\r\nCONVECTIVE SIGNATURE IS STILL A LITTLE THIN.  WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT\r\nAND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT.  DURING DAYS 2 AND 3 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nPORTIONS OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ARE WITHIN THE FORECAST TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WIND SWATH...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE\r\nISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 12.5N  21.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.0N  23.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N  25.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N  27.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 17.0N  30.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N  35.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 23.5N  41.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 26.5N  46.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS A LARGE AND WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nSYSTEM...DESPITE A DECREASE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION. A\r\n21/1914Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE DEPRESSION HAD A SURFACE\r\nWIND FIELD ENVELOPE AT LEAST 500 NMI IN DIAMETER...WITH NUMEROUS\r\n25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS LOCATED IN THE DRY SLOTS.\r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...AND THE LACK OF INNER CORE CONVECTION\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13...BASED ON A 10-HOUR AVERAGE\r\nMOTION USING PASSIVE AND QUIKSCAT MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER OF TD-4 WAS\r\nSOUTH OF 12N LATITUDE AT THAT TIME...PROBABLY DUE TO REFORMATION OF\r\nTHE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER TO THE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL\r\nAND THE BAM MODELS...REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. UNFORTUNATELY...\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXCELLENTLY WRONG THUS FAR. TD-4 IS\r\nCURRENTLY AT LEAST 60 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE 18Z GFS FORECAST\r\nPOSITION FOR 22/00Z...AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE SIMILARLY TOO FAR TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT POSITION. AS A RESULT...I AM NOT TOO\r\nENTHRALLED WITH THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND WE MAY SEE THE CYCLONE\r\nTURN OUT TO BE MORE OF A WEST-RUNNER THAN A RECURVER THROUGH THE\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nAS WELL AS WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS AND UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE\r\nCAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING...AND THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO APPEARS TO BE\r\nBUILDING WESTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE CLIPER MODEL AND\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SKILL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IF TD-4 DOES NOT MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH AS\r\n20N LATITUDE WITHIN 4 DAYS...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MISS THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT ALL THE MODELS FORECAST TO DEVELOP.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED SLIGHTLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS\r\nDUE TO THE LACK OF INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND WEAK TO MODERATE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE\r\nIMPRESSIVE AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN. AFTER THAT...GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SHEAR DECREASES TO 5-10 KT AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WARMER WATERS. \r\n \r\nDUE TO THE LARGE WIND FIELD DEPICTED IN THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS...12-FT SEA HEIGHT RADII WERE ADDED TO THE FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 12.2N  23.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 12.9N  25.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.1N  27.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.9N  30.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N  33.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N  38.4W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 24.0N  44.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 27.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN ORGANIZATION\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING\r\nCLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 25 KT FROM AFWA.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN \r\nBEFORE.  GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST- \r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE UKMET MODEL DEPICTS A \r\nWEAKER CYCLONE...THAT IS STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE GFS AND GFDL DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT\r\nCONTINUES NORTHWEST INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE \r\nLEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT \r\nIS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND IS \r\nCLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND CONU CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE DEPRESSION\r\nCOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THIS MORNING.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL HALTS STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE\r\nTO INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 12.8N  24.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.7N  26.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.1N  29.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.7N  32.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.3N  34.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N  40.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 27.5N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...\r\nAND 35 KT FROM SAB.  SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS DECAYED SOMEWHAT AND\r\nSO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  HIGHER VALUES IN THE\r\n8Z QUIKSCAT PASS ARE BELIEVED TO BE RAIN CONTAMINATED.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS CLEAR ROTATION IN THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT COULD BE\r\nREPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE CENTER...BUT THE LOW CLOUD LINES\r\nSUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE DISPLACED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE\r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SLIGHTLY FAVOR A DISPLACED CENTER.  SO WITH\r\nSOME UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/14.  \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHIFTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEASTWARD WITH INCREASED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR\r\nAT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THERE SEEM TO BE TWO\r\nPRIMARY OPTIONS.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THIS COULD\r\nTURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...IF THE SYSTEM CAN HANG TOGETHER. \r\nALTERNATIVELY...THE SYSTEM COULD SHEAR OFF AND THE WEAKENED\r\nREMNANTS TURN WESTWARD.  THE FORMER SCENARIO IS FAVORED BY THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL...WHILE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS THE CHOICE OF THE UKMET AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.   FOR NOW...I'VE MADE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK...WHICH SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A LOT OF STABLE AIR IN THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATE STRENGTHENING TO AT LEAST A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.  GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET OVER THE WARMEST\r\nWATERS IT WILL SEE FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...I WONDER IF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 13.6N  26.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.6N  28.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 16.1N  30.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.6N  33.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.2N  36.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N  42.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 28.0N  53.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE SOME INCREASE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THERE IS LIMITED BANDING AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 30 KT. CONSEQUENTLY THE SYSTEM WILL NOT\r\nBE UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH CONVECTION ON THE INCREASE\r\nTHE CLASSIFICATIONS SHOULD SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH VERY\r\nSOON. WHILE THE OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN IMPROVING TODAY AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS FAIRLY LOW...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...SO I AM\r\nANTICIPATING ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nAFTER THAT...WATERS WARM BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST AN\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE BACKED\r\nOFF SLIGHTLY WITH THEIR INTENSITY FORECASTS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED DOWN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/16...OR ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHIS TIME YESTERDAY.  RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST A BETTER\r\nCO-LOCATION OF THE MID AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVERGENCE IN HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS HANDLE THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WITH THE 12Z RUNS OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF NOW\r\nMAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AND SHIFTING THEIR TRACKS TO THE RIGHT. \r\nTHEY ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ALSO WITH THE GFDL\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nSYNOPTIC SITUATION...WITH ALL THE GUIDANCE INDICATING AN EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 14.5N  27.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 15.7N  29.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.2N  32.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N  35.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.1N  38.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N  44.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 27.0N  49.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 30.0N  53.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nENOUGH CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER TO SUPPORT A\r\nCONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES. ALSO...THE PAST 5 AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nAND CIRA HAVE RANGED FROM 1003-1000 MB AND 38-43 KT. ALSO...A\r\n22/2027Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED SEVERAL 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED\r\nWIND VECTORS AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...TD-4 HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DEBBY...THE\r\nFOURTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2006 SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72H...\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST OR LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...DUE IN PART TO THE CONTINUED WESTWARD SHIFT OF\r\nTHE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS. THE BAM MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nATROCIOUS AT BEST WITH A LARGE RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS OVER THE PAST 36\r\nHOURS...SO THEY WERE NOT EVEN CONSIDERED IN THE FORECAST PROCESS.\r\nTHE GFS AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN OVERDEVELOPING A WEAK\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI NORTHWEST OF DEBBY.\r\nTHIS FEATURE IS SO INDISTINCT AND MUCH SMALLER THAN THE CIRCULATION\r\nENVELOPE OF DEBBY THAT IT IS HARD TO LOCATE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\nIN CONTRAST...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS HAVE BEEN DOWNPLAYING THE\r\nUPPER-LOW AND DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY BY 48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LOW AT BEST IS MOVING WESTWARD AT THE SAME SPEED AS DEBBY...\r\nANY NORTHWARD INFLUENCE BY THIS SYSTEM ON DEBBY SHOULD BE LESS THAN\r\nDEPICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nWAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GUNA...GUNS...AND\r\nCONU CONSENSUS MODELS. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHT'S DISCUSSION...\r\nIF DEBBY DOESN'T REACH 20-25N LATITUDE IN 72-96 HOURS...THEN A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH AND FORECAST WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...AS ALLUDED TO BY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.\r\n \r\nDRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER SSTS...AND A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE\r\nAIRMASS AHEAD OF DEBBY SUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE\r\nSLOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS\r\nLEVELED OFF BETWEEN 24-48 HOURS AS DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\n26C SSTS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PASS OVER 28C AND\r\nWARMER SSTS...BUT ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DUE TO\r\nSLOWLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 15.2N  28.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.2N  31.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 17.6N  33.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.9N  36.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N  39.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 22.8N  44.9W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 26.0N  50.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 29.1N  54.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND A \r\n0331 UTC AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED\r\nSYSTEM...WITH WELL DEFINED BANDS AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14. DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES.\r\nTHE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...MAINTAINING \r\nTHIS MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THE TRACK DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAPPEAR TO BE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE UMKET MODEL DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM\r\nAND IN TURN TRACKS IT MORE WESTWARD...WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nHAVE A STRONGER CYCLONE WHICH FEELS THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH AND\r\nTURNS NORTHWARD NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NOGAPS TRACK SEEMS\r\nUNREASONABLE BECAUSE IT RESULTS FROM AN UNREALISTIC DISSIPATION OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND REFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM FROM A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...\r\nIT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nDEBBY WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nSSTS OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP \r\nINTENSIFICATION SLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.  THEREAFTER... THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE PASSING OVER WARMER SSTS...BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN WHICH MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT INTENSITY PREDICTION.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST BRINGS DEBBY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 4 DAYS...WHICH\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS...BUT IS\r\nLEVELED OFF IN DEFERENCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 15.9N  30.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.9N  32.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.2N  35.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.6N  37.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N  40.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 24.0N  46.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 27.5N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  53.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n \r\nDEBBY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THIS MORNING'S\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS THAT HAD A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 45 KT VECTOR.  THE\r\nSYSTEM ALSO SHOWED VERY GOOD ORGANIZATION ON AN 11Z MICROWAVE PASS. \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT YET REFLECT THAT LEVEL OF\r\nORGANIZATION...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45\r\nKT.  THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER LIGHT\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSUPPORT ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT\r\nDEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LOW WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE\r\nIN SOUTHERLY SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD THAT COULD SLOW THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  NEVERTHELESS...THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO INDICATE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT TO NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15. DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BETWEEN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE BASIC SYNOPTIC THINKING. A\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT\r\nTHE NOGAPS BEGIN A RECURVATURE BY DAY 5...AND THE NOGAPS DOES SO\r\nSHORTLY THEREAFTER. THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME...BUT I NOTE THAT MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A HARDER RIGHT TURN BY DAY 5 THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DOES. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 16.8N  31.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 17.8N  33.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.1N  36.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.3N  39.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.6N  42.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  47.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 30.5N  53.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF DEBBY HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD\r\nOF DECAYING CONVECTION. WHILE THIS IS PARTLY DIURNAL...DEBBY IS\r\nMOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND OVER 26C WATERS.\r\nDVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN SHARPLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 40 KT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSUPPORT...AT BEST...ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...BUT DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT.\r\nALTHOUGH DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT A\r\nRESTRENGTHENING AND THE LONGER RANGE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDEBBY CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n305/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nTHINKING AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. DEBBY CONTINUES\r\nTO BE STEERED BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED\r\nNEAR THE AZORES. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GUIDANCE IS\r\nUNANIMOUS ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN THE RATE OF RECURVATURE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 17.9N  33.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N  35.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N  38.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N  41.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.8N  44.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 25.5N  48.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 28.5N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 32.0N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER THE BRIEF WEAKENING PHASE DEBBY WENT THROUGH EARLIER AS\r\nMENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO\r\nMAKE A COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE GOOD BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDERNEATH THE NORTHEAST\r\nPORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY. THE INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AT 40 KT AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DESPITE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ONLY 30 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/16. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE DEBBY IS BASICALLY ON TRACK.\r\nA GRADUAL MOTION CLOSE TO 290 DEGREES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nFORCING THE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK NOW THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED ON THE WEST SIDE OF DEBBY. OTHERWISE\r\nDEBBY IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS TO TO BE STEERED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.\r\nBY THE DAY 4-5 TIME PERIOD...ALL THE MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS\r\nWILL DEVELOP IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-55W LONGITUDE...\r\nALLOWING DEBBY TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THAT WEAKNESS. THE UKMET AND\r\nGFDL MODELS INDICATE RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...\r\nWHEREAS THE REST OF THE MODELS MERELY SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE AND\r\nMOVE IT NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE GFS IS NOW SUGGESTING THAT\r\nTHE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE MAY RUN OFF AND LEAVE DEBBY CAUGHT IN THE RIDGE AXIS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE\r\nGUNA...GUNS...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS CURRENTLY OVER 26C SSTS...THE COOLEST WATER IT WILL\r\nENCOUNTER DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nDECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...SO SOME\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARMER\r\nSSTS. BY 72 HOURS... THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO\r\nAT LEAST 20 KT...WHICH WILL INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION DESPITE DEBBY\r\nMOVING OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR VECTOR WILL BE ALIGNED NEARLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...\r\nDEBBY COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY BY DAY\r\n5 WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE SITUATED IN THE WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND...THUS...IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 18.8N  34.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 19.8N  36.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.1N  39.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.3N  42.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 23.6N  45.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 26.4N  49.2W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 29.5N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 33.0N  51.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE STORM WITH A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN FORMING.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 40 KT IN BETWEEN\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KT.  A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SSTS AND\r\nFAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...\r\nSSTS RISE A BIT FASTER BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL INCREASE.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES BEYOND TWO\r\nDAYS... AS SHIPS NEVER MAKES DEBBY A HURRICANE WHILE THE GFDL\r\nINTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY DAY THREE. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.    \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME...300/17.  THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nIN BETWEEN A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND\r\nA MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST.  BEYOND 24-36\r\nHOURS... A BREAK IN THE TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS NEAR 55W.  THIS\r\nBREAK SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST THEN NORTH... THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST TO TAKE\r\nDEBBY NORTHWARD.  THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MODEL.... SHOOTING THE\r\nSTORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES NORTH OF 40N IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nNOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER... SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND KEEPING\r\nDEBBY SOUTH OF 32N THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY\r\nA LITTLE FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT... A BIT SOUTH OF THE GUNS CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 19.6N  36.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.6N  38.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.8N  41.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N  44.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N  47.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.5N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 30.5N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 34.5N  49.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED ON 45 KT VECTORS IN RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE NO\r\nHIGHER THAN 35 KT. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS\r\nSTRONG. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED AS DEBBY MOVES OVER\r\nWARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE AS WELL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE KEEPS DIVERGING. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER\r\nWITH SUCCESSIVE RUNS...BUT THE GFDL MODEL STILL FORECASTS A\r\nCATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. I SUSPECT THE GFDL IS UNDERPLAYING THE IMPACT\r\nOF THE SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING OR TRACK\r\nFORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/17. THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS DEBBY MOVES AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES. ALL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES ON A RECURVATURE TRACK...ALBEIT AT DIFFERENT\r\nRATES...IN FRONT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AS WELL AS THE GUNA AND FSU CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 20.4N  37.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.4N  40.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 22.6N  43.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.8N  45.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 25.4N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 28.5N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 31.5N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 36.0N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL\r\nCHANGE IN DEBBY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE CYCLONE WITH THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. \r\nADDITIONALLY...DEBBY IS EXHIBITING A BURSTING TYPE PATTERN IN ITS\r\nCONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT-TERM...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSHOWN DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS.  THE UPPER FLOW MAY BECOME A BIT\r\nMORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR\r\nTHIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE MAY NOT COME UNTIL IT NEARS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THIS SAME TROUGH IS ALSO\r\nEXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEBBY'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 5. \r\nTHE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO DELAY\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ONE DAY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7. DEBBY SHOULD CONTINUE ON A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT\r\nMOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nNEAR THE AZORES. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...\r\nAND ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 21.3N  39.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.3N  41.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.8N  44.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 25.4N  47.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 27.1N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 30.9N  51.3W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 35.0N  49.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 40.1N  44.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nDEBBY STILL LOOKS MUCH LIKE IT DID SIX HOURS AGO...WITH A RELATIVELY\r\nSMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CIRRUS SPREADING OUT TO THE NORTH\r\nDUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30-35 KT.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS RETRIEVED BY QUIKSCAT IN AN OVERPASS AROUND 21Z\r\nWERE 45 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  MANUAL\r\nANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES CONFIRMS THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS\r\nOF THE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16 IS\r\nJUST A LITTLE LEFT OF WHAT IT WAS EARLIER...BUT STILL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nONCE AGAIN THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OR THE UNDERLYING\r\nREASONING.  THE STEERING MECHANISMS LEADING TO RECURVATURE REMAIN\r\nFAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT ABATE MUCH DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE WEST OF DEBBY...SO ONLY VERY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THAT PERIOD.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MIGHT SLACKEN A BIT ON\r\nDAY 3 AND ALLOW DEBBY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER...BUT\r\nTHEREAFTER A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC WILL AGAIN INCREASE THE SHEAR.  THE CHANCES OF DEBBY\r\nREACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEAR\r\nTO BE QUITE MARGINAL...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 21.9N  41.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 22.9N  43.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 24.6N  46.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 26.2N  48.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 28.1N  50.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 32.0N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 36.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN STILL\r\nREMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED AND HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. A TRIMM PASS OVER DEBBY SHOWED THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nNOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND THE LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS ARE A\r\nLITTLE BIT DISPLACED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 45 KNOTS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON\r\nQUIKSCAT...BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST A WEAKER SYSTEM. DEBBY IS\r\nABOUT TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AND THAT COULD HELP THE CYCLONE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFDL AND THE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODELS THAT MAKE DEBBY A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE.\r\n\r\nDEBBY CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY\r\nREACH A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND RECURVATURE\r\nSHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD\r\nMOVE \r\nTO THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL LOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN\r\nFACT...CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THIS INCREASES THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 22.9N  42.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 24.1N  44.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 25.8N  47.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  49.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 30.0N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  50.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 39.0N  43.0W    55 KT...BECOMING-EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 45.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT DEBBY CONTINUES TO\r\nSTRUGGLE WITHIN THE MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS DISPLACING\r\nTHE CIRCULATION WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE RATHER LIMITED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 25\r\nAND 35 KT...A CIRA AMSU-A INTENSITY ESTIMATE CHIMED IN AT 37\r\nKT...AND THIS MORNING'S 0822Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED A FEW 40\r\nKT VECTORS.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n35 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE\r\nSHIPS...WHICH SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS...THEN A GRADUAL INCREASE AS DEBBY INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nAPPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/15.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS ONCE DEBBY MOVES BENEATH THE WESTERLIES. \r\nTHE UKMET AND THE GFS INDICATE ABSORPTION BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL\r\nLOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3 AND 4\r\nRESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE OTHER AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGUNA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nDAY 3...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND EMPHASIZES THE MODELS SUGGESTING AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 23.9N  43.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 25.3N  45.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 27.2N  47.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  49.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 31.2N  49.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 36.0N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 42.0N  42.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 48.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE\r\nCIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nFINAL-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND A NOAA\r\nP-3 FLYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXPERIMENT REPORTED A SURFACE WIND\r\nOF 35 KT WITHIN THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE\r\nREPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL HOLD AT 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH MAINTAINS 35 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nBEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS DEBBY\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. DEBBY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3...THEN ULTIMATELY\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/15.  DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT DEBBY WILL MOVE BENEATH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND\r\nIS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 24.9N  44.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  46.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.2N  48.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.3N  49.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 32.7N  48.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 39.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 46.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH SUPPORT\r\nDOWNGRADING DEBBY TO A DEPRESSION...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM EARLIER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE IN A SMALL AREA ABOUT 90 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT WHILE THERE\r\nIS A DEFINITE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND ASYMMETRIC.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER DEBBY FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...SO IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE...IN ITS CURRENT FRAGILE\r\nSTATE...WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS AND MODEL\r\nFIELDS SUGGEST THAT DEBBY SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN\r\n36 HOURS THEN BECOME FULLY ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL ZONE BY 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nAND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN MAINTAINING A MARGINAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  HOWEVER...IT COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.\r\n\r\nDEBBY HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n300/12.  THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE TO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND ITS\r\nASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  DEBBY WILL THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 25.2N  45.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N  47.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 28.5N  48.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 30.8N  48.7W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 33.6N  47.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT DEBBY IS CONTINUING TO WEAKEN.  IN\r\nADDITION... THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT DEBBY IS LOOKING LESS TROPICAL THAN EARLIER WITH ONLY SCANT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL NORTHWARD OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WHILE DEBBY IS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DEBBY COULD EITHER\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY... AS SUGGESTED BY THE PHASE SPACE\r\nDIAGRAMS FROM FSU... OR A REMNANT LOW IF THE CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES TO BE LIMITED.   SOME EXTRATROPICAL RE-INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE IN LINE WITH A FEW GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS... THOUGH\r\nTHERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN.\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS HEADING MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS MORNING...\r\n290/11.   THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH UNTIL IT FINDS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE... EVENTUALLY\r\nACCELERATING IN A DAY OR SO AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD REPRESENTATION\r\nOF THE WEAK CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD CLOSER TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 25.3N  46.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 26.4N  48.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 28.6N  49.1W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 31.5N  48.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 34.5N  47.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nPERSISTING APPROXIMATELY 150 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...A PRODUCT OF THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT...WITH\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWING SUIT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS. DEBBY WILL THEN ULTIMATELY\r\nBECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   \r\n \r\nDEBBY IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/7.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE\r\nUKMET ALL SUGGEST THAT DEBBY WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. \r\nTHE UKMET INDICATES A INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE FRONT.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE GFS AND ECMWF REVEAL A MORE RAPID ABSORPTION\r\nPHASE...BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH IS VERY POSSIBLE.  DEBBY SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS DEBBY COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 25.6N  47.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.7N  48.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 29.5N  49.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A RECENTLY DEVELOPED\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 45 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED CENTER.  \r\nTHE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY...REMAIN AT 25 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR DEBBY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A\r\nBRIEF INTENSIFICATION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 36 HOURS.  DEBBY IS THEN EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAM BASED\r\nOFF OF THE GFS FIELDS SHOWS DISSIPATION AS A SHALLOW WARM CORE\r\nSYSTEM...WHILE THE UKMET DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES\r\nABSORPTION WITHIN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS.  SO...THERE\r\nSTILL EXISTS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEBBY WILL DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT...OR NON-CONVECTIVE...LOW BEFORE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.\r\n \r\nDEBBY HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n340/10.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RATHER LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE SYSTEM IS INFLUENCING THIS MOTION AND ACCELERATION. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE NORTHWARD IN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DEBBY SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 27.0N  47.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 28.6N  48.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 31.2N  48.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 34.2N  46.8W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEBBY JUST A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 25 KT...AND A 2200 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS CONTAINED SOME 25 KT WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS.  BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 25 KT.  DEBBY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 12\r\nHOURS...CONTINGENT UPON NO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nRECENT FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW TRANSITION TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE\r\nINFLUENCED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AS WELL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING INFLUENCED\r\nBY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL\r\nAS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ABSORPTION\r\nOF DEBBY BY THE FRONTAL ZONE OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 27.9N  48.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 29.7N  48.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 32.1N  48.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE JUST A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF DEBBY.  THIS SYSTEM BARELY FITS THE\r\nDEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SO ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED\r\nSIX MORE HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO\r\nIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT.  THIS SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE AT\r\nANY TIME WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.   \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION OF 320/11 SHOULD CHANGE TO DUE NORTH SOON\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB\r\nDEBBY IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nLEFTWARD AT FIRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWESTWARD INITIAL MOTION\r\nTHEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 28.6N  49.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 30.5N  49.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  48.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n \r\nA 0912 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 25 KT\r\nVECTORS ABOUT 110 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nWITHIN THE SHALLOW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHOLDS AT 25 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN\r\nCONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. IF THIS TREND\r\nCONTINUES...AND DEBBY BECOMES A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW...THE LAST\r\nADVISORY COULD BE WRITTEN THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE\r\nIS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS MORE TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...360/11. THE\r\nAMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN AN ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS. DEBBY SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24\r\nHOURS...AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE GFS\r\nENSEMBLE AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 29.6N  49.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 32.0N  48.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 35.5N  46.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS LOOKING RATHER ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUES TO\r\nGENERATE LIMITED AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 010/15.  DEBBY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE LACK OF PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...DEBBY IS NO\r\nLONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED\r\nBY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DEBBY.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 31.5N  48.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 33.8N  47.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WORKED LONG AND HARD THIS\r\nAFTERNOON TO CLOSE OFF THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nWINDWARD ISLANDS...AND FOUND ENOUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nJUST PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 39 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 30 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\nALTHOUGH BARBADOS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT EARLIER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE DIRECTION OF THOSE WINDS SUGGESTED A CONVECTIVE\r\nOUTFLOW OR DOWNBURST NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. \r\nAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IN THE BANDS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nINDICATE WINDS THERE ARE ALSO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  WITH\r\nTHE CENTER ALREADY IN THE CARIBBEAN AND NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE\r\nWINDWARD ISLANDS...NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED.  HOWEVER...\r\nINTERESTS THERE SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL WINDS AND SEAS\r\nSUBSIDE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/19.  A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING A\r\nWESTWARD STEERING FLOW...AND THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY IN\r\nPLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OTHER KEY PLAYER IS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...THIS TROUGH WILL BE PROVIDING BOTH\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND AND A NORTHWARD STEERING COMPONENT.  THE GFDL\r\nRESPONDS TO THIS BY GRADUALLY LIFTING THE TRACK AROUND THE UPPER\r\nLOW AND TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FOR THE\r\nMOST PART FARTHER SOUTH AND KEEP THE SYSTEM WEAKER IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE SHEAR.  I AM REMINDED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS CORRECTLY FORECAST\r\nTHE DISSIPATION OF CHRIS A WHILE BACK...AND THE GFDL DOESN'T ALWAYS\r\nHANDLE SHEAR WELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN\r\nOPTION.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS BOTH A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS SOME\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS RETROGRADES THE UPPER LOW AND IF THIS OCCURS\r\nWOULD RESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS BASED ON THE GFS FIELDS...RESPONDS TO\r\nTHIS AND TAKES THE CYCLONE UP TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS. \r\nTHE GFDL INTENSITIES ARE LOWER...BUT THIS RESULTS FROM A GFDL TRACK\r\nWHICH IS OVER LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPERS THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE WITH THE MINIMAL DEVELOPMENT SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 12.9N  62.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.2N  65.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.8N  68.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 14.6N  70.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N  72.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 17.0N  76.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N  80.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 20.5N  85.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n\r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS\r\nMAINTAINED CONVECTION IN A SOMEWHAT SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF 2.0 OR 30 KT. BASED\r\nUPON THIS INFORMATION AS WELL AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30\r\nKT MAXIMUM WINDS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LAST SIX\r\nHOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK\r\nBY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEM ON A\r\nSTRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK.  THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE\r\nTO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA IN 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...TOWARD THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT UPON A COMPLICATED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FOR WHICH THE GLOBAL MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING\r\nSOLUTIONS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS\r\nFORECAST TO SPLIT FROM A SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHED ALONG 25N\r\nIN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS KEEP THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW INTACT AND MOVE IT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5\r\nDAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO MIGHT KEEP SOME SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS MOVE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW FASTER TO THE WEST...CREATING\r\nA MUCH WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AT DAYS\r\n3 TO 5.  ALL THIS MEANS IS THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO\r\nA HURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS THE\r\nSYSTEM OVER CUBA BUT THE SHIPS FORECAST CONTINUED STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD\r\nTOWARD THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 13.2N  63.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.7N  66.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N  68.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.3N  71.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 16.0N  73.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 17.5N  77.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.5N  81.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N  85.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE WESTERLY SHEAR... THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE\r\nAPPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nINTENSIFIED NEAR THE CENTER WITH IMPROVING BANDING FEATURES IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER IT APPEARS THE CENTER IS ON THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS... AS SUGGESTED BY A NOTCH IN THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION PATTERN ON NIGHT-VIS SATELLITE IMAGES.  SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 35-45 KT BUT ARE A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  WITH THE UNCERTAINITY IN INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.. 30 KT WILL BE KEPT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGES ALLOW US TO GET\r\nA BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST SEEMS LIKE THE EASIER PART OF THE FORECAST THIS\r\nMORNING. THE DEPRESSION IS SPEEDING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME\r\nRATE... 280/17. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD REMAIN STRONG OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A\r\nGENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET SHOW STRONGER RIDGING AND A WEAKER\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE... LEADING TO A TRACK CLOSER TO YUCATAN IN ABOUT 5\r\nDAYS. THE GFS AND GFDL TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THE RIDGE IN A FEW\r\nDAYS... WHICH ALLOW A STRONGER SYSTEM TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nCLOSER TO CUBA. I'M INCLINED TO STICK CLOSER TO THE FIRST OPTION\r\n... LEADING TO A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY TO SAY THE LEAST. FIRST OF ALL...\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS TO SURVIVE THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IT WILL BE\r\nEXPERIENCING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN\r\nAND IT WOULDN'T BE A HUGE SURPRISE FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE\r\nIN THE \"GRAVEYARD\" OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... LIKE SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSURVIVES...AND THIS IS A BIG IF...GLOBAL MODELS REMOVE THE SHEAR BY\r\nFRACTURING THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS\r\nPATTERN CHANGE SENDS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN\r\n3 DAYS WHILE BUILDING UPPER RIDGING NEAR THE DEPRESSION. THIS COULD\r\nALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ESPECIALLY AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN. ON THE OTHER HAND... GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOTORIOUSLY\r\nWEAKENED UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONES TOO QUICKLY IN THE PAST AND THE\r\nMID-OCEANIC TROUGH HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND STRONGER-THAN-\r\nNORMAL IN THAT AREA THIS SEASON.  AFTER SAYING ALL THIS... THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS. HOWEVER IF\r\nTHE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING\r\nMATERIALIZES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN... TD FIVE COULD BE A LOT\r\nSTRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN THE LATER PERIODS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 13.4N  65.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 13.9N  67.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 14.8N  70.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N  72.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N  79.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N  84.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 23.5N  87.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS VERY HARD TO LOCATE THIS\r\nMORNING.  MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED WEST OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THROUGH\r\nTHE NIGHT...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS.  HOWEVER...A\r\n12Z OBSERVATION FROM SHIP 6ZXG SUGGEST THE CENTER IS FARTHER TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND EAST...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NOT YET\r\nHELPED RESOLVE THIS...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL\r\nWINDS.  THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE CLOSER TO THAT OF THE\r\nMICROWAVE DATA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35-45 KT...\r\nBUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nREMAIN A DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13...SOMEWHAT SLOWER\r\nTHAN EARLIER.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72-96 HR.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH\r\nOF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS\r\nTHROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL\r\nWHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER CUBA.  SOME SPREAD APPEARS\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS BUILDING THE\r\nRIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nWESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A\r\nWEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 96 HR...THEN\r\nSLOWS THE SYSTEM DOWN IN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERHAPS BECOMING LESS TRICKY.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE WESTWARD\r\nAND ALLOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.   SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nKNOWN TO MOVE UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TOO QUICKLY WESTWARD...IT WOULD\r\nREDUCE THE CURRENT 15-20 KT SHEAR AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 60 HR AND REACH 87 KT BY 120 HR.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY...THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE OLD FORECAST...CALLING FOR\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nSHEAR DECREASES AS MUCH AS FORECAST...THE CYCLONE COULD BE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.  IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS\r\nTHE CENTER IN A DIFFERENT LOCATION...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK COULD BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 13.5N  66.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.2N  68.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N  71.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N  73.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.9N  76.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N  80.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N  84.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 23.5N  87.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM\r\nERNESTO.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 1000\r\nFT ABOUT 40 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.  THIS WIND WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A 40\r\nKT INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AT THAT\r\nTIME...AND THE 48 KT WINDS WERE NOT IN SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. \r\nTHUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 35 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER IS TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE\r\nNEW INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14.  OTHERWISE...\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR.  ERNESTO IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS\r\nSCENARIO WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN AND THE WESTERN END OF CUBA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nGFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A TRACK OVER THE LENGTH OF CUBA. \r\nSOME SPREAD APPEARS IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE GFS\r\nBUILDING THE RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ENOUGH TO TURN ERNESTO\r\nWESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVING ENOUGH OF A\r\nWEAKNESS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.  THE UKMET FORECASTS A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR...WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS STALLS ERNESTO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF...BUT PARALLEL TO...THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFOR THE FIRST 72 HR BASED ON THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION.  IT THEN\r\nCALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST\r\nNORTHWEST OF ERNESTO.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL\r\nCONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO...WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF STRONG \r\nCONVECTION LIKELY.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL\r\nFORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OR ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nDETAILS...PARTICULARLY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND\r\nA SOUTHWARD-MOVING CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ON ITS NORTH SIDE...THE\r\nSHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nFIRST 24-36 HR...WITH SOMEWHAT FASTER STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST DUE TO THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS AT 96 AND 120 HR.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 96 HR...THERE IS\r\nA CHANCE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 14.3N  67.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N  69.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N  72.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 17.0N  74.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N  77.2W    55 KT...OVER JAMAICA\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  82.0W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 23.0N  85.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N  88.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED TO INDICATE NEAR JAMAICA AT 36 HOURS...\r\n \r\nSINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED FROM THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND EXPANDED...BUT IS STILL\r\nDISPLACED MOSTLY EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR\r\nANALYSES ESTIMATE ABOUT 15 KTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY\r\nAFFECTING ERNESTO WITH STRONGER SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST.  IT HAS\r\nBEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY BASED UPON THE DVORAK SHEAR\r\nPATTERN.  DUE TO THE DEEPENING CONVECTION AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB RANGING FROM 35 KT TO 45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 40 KT. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE BACK\r\nIN TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO AT 0600 UTC TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHWEST ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WHEN A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO\r\nFORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS\r\nERNESTO ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.   \r\n\r\nCURRENTLY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN CUBA AND\r\nJAMAICA WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO ITS SOUTHEAST.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING RAPIDLY\r\nTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT THAT\r\nTHE LOW SHOULD END UP ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN\r\n3 TO 4 DAYS.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY WEAK SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY IN 36-48 HOURS\r\nAND REMAIN WEAK THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NUDGED UPWARD...SINCE MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES AN EVEN STRONGER INTENSITY THAN SHOWN\r\nBELOW.   \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 14.8N  69.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.6N  71.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 16.6N  73.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.8N  76.4W    55 KT...NEAR JAMAICA\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  79.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  87.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 26.0N  90.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ERNESTO AND FOUND THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 999 MB WITH A WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION. HOWEVER FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED\r\nMUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FLIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS\r\nDUE TO THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 45 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AVAILABLE REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT.\r\nERNESTO HAS BEEN A FIGHTER AND HAS BEEN ABLE TO SURVIVE THE STRONG\r\nSHEAR SO FAR. UNANIMOUSLY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER ERNESTO...A PATTERN WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM\r\nWATERS AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN ERNESTO BECOMING A\r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND VERY SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE. OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN AND STRENGTHENING MAY NOT OCCUR AT ALL IF THE SHEAR DOES\r\nNOT DECREASE.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ERNESTO IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE BUT\r\nCLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nIN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE\r\nAS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 14.8N  70.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.4N  72.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.6N  74.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N  77.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N  80.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 22.0N  83.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N  86.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 26.0N  89.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nAT ABOUT 09Z INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB AND MAXIMUM 850\r\nMB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE WINDSAT\r\nSATELLITE AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ERNESTO REMAINS\r\nPARTLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE MASS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  OTHER\r\nTHAN THAT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...FORECAST REASONING...AND\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  DURING THIS TIME...ERNESTO SHOULD MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND WESTERN\r\nCUBA.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR. THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH\r\nTHE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW\r\nMUCH WEAKENING WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS CALL FOR ERNESTO\r\nTO RECURVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS\r\nENOUGH RIDGE TO KEEP ERNESTO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE GFS\r\nAND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...CALLING FOR SLOW MOTION OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL GULF.  COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER IS A LACK OF\r\nRUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nAFTER 72 HR CALLS FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...WITH A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  OVERALL..THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH\r\nSO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO.  IF THE MODELS ARE\r\nCORRECT...THE CURRENT 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND ALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 36\r\nHR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 100 KT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...AND THE STORM COULD GET\r\nSTRONGER THAN THAT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...FOR AS OF YET UNDETERMINED REASONS...CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION AFTER 96 HR EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS\r\nINHIBITING FACTORS.  \r\n \r\nIN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE\r\nAS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 15.1N  71.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.8N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N  75.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.4N  78.1W    60 KT...OVER JAMAICA\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N  80.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 22.5N  84.0W    80 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N  87.0W    90 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 27.0N  88.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nON A MISSION THAT FEATURED A SATCOM FAILURE...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS\r\nWELL EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY POSITION.  HOW\r\nMUCH OF THIS IS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER AND HOW MUCH IS\r\nDUE TO AN ACTUAL TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB...AND A DROPWINDSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50\r\nKT.  WHILE THE RE-FORMATION PUTS THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE\r\nCONVECTION...ERNESTO IS STILL ENCOUNTERING NOTABLE WESTERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 295/11.  WHILE THE OVERALL\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE\r\nREFORMATION OF THE CENTER REQUIRES SHIFTING THE FIRST 72 HR OF THE\r\nTRACK ABOUT 50 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THIS\r\nINCREASES THE THREAT TO HAITI...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CUBA...AND\r\nTHE FLORIDA KEYS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS SOLUTION OF\r\nBRINGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO TO SOUTH FLORIDA LOOKS\r\nDUBIOUS...AS THE 500 MB CENTER STAYS WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER CUBA. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE\r\nBROKEN BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE\r\nMISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL OR EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN SPEED BETWEEN THE\r\nSLOWER UKMET AND ECMWF AND THE FASTER NOGAPS.  THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AT A\r\nSLOW SPEED...SIMILAR TO BUT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  MORE\r\nADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK MAY NECESSARY ON THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY DEPENDING ON ANY NEW JUMPS IN THE CENTER POSITION TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ALTHOUGH\r\nSO FAR THEY HAVE BEEN TOO FAST IN DOING SO.  IF THE MODELS ARE\r\nCORRECT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AND\r\nALLOW ERNESTO TO STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND STEADY STRENGTHENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO REACH 105\r\nKT INTENSITY IN 120 HR...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...\r\nAND THE STORM COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT.  ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM\r\nWITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INTERACTION WITH LAND...AS ERNESTO\r\nMIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST IF IT GETS TOO CLOSE TO\r\nHISPANIOLA OR CUBA.\r\n \r\nIN SUMMARY...ERNESTO COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE\r\nAS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 15.9N  71.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 16.8N  73.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.1N  75.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 19.4N  77.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.8N  79.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 23.5N  83.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 25.5N  86.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 28.0N  87.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS\r\nUNCHANGED AT 997 MB.  THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\nSINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE\r\nMEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 50 KT.  SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR\r\nAND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS\r\nEXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER.  THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO\r\nRETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nTO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A\r\nFEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/12...ALTHOUGH WITH ONLY\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY THIS REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nVARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nERNESTO WILL MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE\r\nTOWARD AND THEN NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA.  AFTER REACHING\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO...THE MODEL TRACKS DIVERGE AS STEERING CURRENTS\r\nSLACKEN WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WITH SOLUTIONS AS FAR WEST\r\nAS THE GFDN THAT TAKES ERNESTO TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF...AND AS FAR\r\nEAST AS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AS SHOWN BY THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE\r\nNOGAPS.  IN THE MIDDLE BUT SLOWER IS THE GFDL AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THAT THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED MUCH...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE AT THESE LONG RANGES AND IS JUST NUDGED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA SIGNIFICANT COMPLICATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...PRIMARILY CUBA.  IF THE CENTER OF\r\nERNESTO TAKES A PATH JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK...IT COULD SPEND QUITE A BIT OF TIME OVER CUBA AND WEAKEN\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY BETWEEN ABOUT 24 AND 48 HOURS FROM NOW.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nTHE CENTER TAKES A PATH FARTHER LEFT IT WOULD SPEND VERY LITTLE\r\nTIME OVER CUBA.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT\r\nTHERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME INTERACTION WITH CUBA...BUT IT SHOWS\r\nONLY A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  IT IS IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...TO REITERATE THAT ERNESTO\r\nCOULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 16.8N  72.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.8N  74.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.2N  76.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N  78.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.8N  80.6W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  84.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 29.0N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n \r\nBIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE\r\nREQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA\r\nINDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AN EYE\r\nIS FORMING AND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 78 KT WERE\r\nRECENTLY OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUALS ABOUT 62\r\nKT SURFACE WINDS...SO ERNESTO IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE\r\nEYE IS SO SMALL...HOWEVER...THAT THE FLIGHT CREW HAVE BEEN UNABLE\r\nTO PROPERLY ASSESS THE MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR NOTED ON THE SYSTEM NOW...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING\r\nOUTWARD IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/08...BASED ON A\r\n12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION. THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE\r\nSTRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CLOSER\r\nTO THE CENTER OF THE ROUND CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS COULD BRING\r\nERNESTO OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI LATER\r\nTODAY. FOR THAT REASON...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR\r\nSOUTHWESTERN HAITI. NOW FOR THE REST OF THE BAD NEWS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OR EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS..AND NOW\r\nTAKES ERNESTO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nCAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER FLORIDA AND THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD. THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS APPEAR TO BE ERODING THE RIDGE TO QUICKLY AND HAVE ERNESTO\r\nOVER SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA IN 84 HOURS. THE REST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE FARTHER WESTWARD OVER OR WEST OF THE\r\nLOWER FLORIDA KEYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nNOW AGREE ON RECURVATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AROUND 96\r\nHOURS...AND TAKE ERNESTO NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL OR\r\nNORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS AS EQUALLY DIFFICULT TO PREPARE AS THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST WAS...AND IT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK\r\nTHAT ERNESTO TAKES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND CUBA.\r\nEXCLUDING LAND INTERACTION...THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEAN CONDITIONS\r\nCURRENT AND FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING ERNESTO ARE HIGHLY CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE LONGER TERM. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nRAPIDLY DECREASING WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING. IN FACT\r\n...OUTFLOW CHANNELS HAVE NOW DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF\r\nERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND\r\nINTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS\r\nVERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST\r\nBY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA\r\nFOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY\r\nBY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 17.0N  73.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 17.8N  74.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 19.3N  76.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.6N  78.1W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 22.1N  80.2W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 24.4N  83.1W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 26.5N  84.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 30.0N  81.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n \r\nERNESTO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING BUT THERE ARE\r\nSOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nLAST AIRCRAFT-EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD\r\nTOWARD YUCATAN...THE SHEAR OVER ERNESTO IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.  \r\nTHUS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS\r\nWITH LAND.  ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD BE\r\nOVER CUBA FROM HOUR 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME\r\nWEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY\r\nSHIPS MODEL RATHER CLOSELY.  HOWEVER...AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY\r\nAT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. \r\nHOWEVER....ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THE\r\nPROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/8.  A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD TAKE ERNESTO OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION\r\nOF CUBA.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nDROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN 3-5 DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD HEADING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE 0600 UTC\r\nRUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nRUN BUT THE 0600 UTC NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO BE CLOSER TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS IS EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA\r\nKEYS AS EARLY AS 2100 UTC TODAY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 17.6N  73.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 18.6N  74.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N  76.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 21.5N  78.3W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 23.1N  80.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 25.5N  82.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 28.0N  82.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 31.0N  81.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n\r\nAPPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT.  IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS\r\nARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR\r\nTHE COASTLINE OF HAITI.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS\r\nGENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT.  SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE\r\nWATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO\r\nCROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN\r\nRESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  BECAUSE IT\r\nIS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nWILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER\r\nDIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\n310/7.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS\r\nIN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE\r\nTRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST.  THE\r\nGFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT\r\nBEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT\r\nOF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL.  THIS NHC FORECAST\r\nIS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.  \r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND\r\nADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 18.0N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N  75.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.7N  77.2W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 22.1N  79.1W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 23.5N  80.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 26.5N  82.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 30.0N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 34.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ENDED AROUND 00Z...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND WERE 41 KT.  THEY WERE UNABLE TO GET\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO LAND...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THEY DID\r\nNOT SAMPLE THE STRONGEST WINDS.  NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS PROBABLY HIGH.  IN GENERAL...THE\r\nSATELLITE DEPICTION OF ERNESTO IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER\r\nIN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE BANDING AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED\r\nSOMEWHAT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK.  ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGGRESSIVELY SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE\r\nNOGAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND BOTH\r\nTOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND THE\r\nUKMET IS ON THE LEFT...JUST WEST OF THE KEYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nHAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY\r\nWILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND\r\nAN AIR FORCE C-130.  A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS\r\nSOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE\r\nGFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY COMPLICATED BY LAND INTERACTIONS\r\nWITH CUBA.  SHOULD ERNESTO NOT REGAIN MUCH ORGANIZATION BEFORE\r\nREACHING CUBA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT A LOT WILL BE LEFT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME A VIGOROUS RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT\r\nTONIGHT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER CUBA. \r\nIN THIS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE...BUT\r\nWELL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 18.6N  74.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.6N  75.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N  77.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 22.8N  79.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  81.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 27.0N  82.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 35.0N  77.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN HAS\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF ERNESTO. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINVESTING THE CYCLONE HAS MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004\r\nMB...BUT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 35 KT. THEREFORE...THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED AT 1002 MB. MAXIMUM 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 48 KT SO FAR...BUT AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nOVER PASS INDICATED HI-RESOLUTION WINDS OF 40-45 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS JUST OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...AS A\r\nRESULT...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/10. THE RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN\r\nJUMPING AROUND AS NEW CONVECTIVE BURSTS DEVELOP AND THE CENTER HAS\r\nMOVED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA ALSO INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED...SO A MORE GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SHORTLY. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A POSSIBLE\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE 00Z MODEL RUNS HAVE THE LATEST NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT\r\nDROPSONDE DATA IN THEM...AND THIS MAY EXPLAIN THE BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nAND STRONGER CONVERGENCE OF THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS AS COMPARED\r\nTO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nPOSITION NOTED IN RECON AND RADAR DATA...AND THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE GUNA...GUNS...CONU...AND CCON CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE\r\nLAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE\r\nMORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS\r\nFORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS\r\nAPPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE\r\nCONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A\r\nCATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 19.6N  75.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.8N  76.3W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.2N  78.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 23.7N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.5N  80.6W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 29.6N  81.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 32.5N  79.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 36.5N  74.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006\r\n\r\nERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA\r\nCAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC.  THE CENTER IS\r\nNOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN.  SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES\r\nBACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.  ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER\r\nWATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST GFDL FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE\r\nAPPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/9.  A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO MAY BE IMPARTING SOME NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOTION.  DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES\r\nIN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN OF\r\nERNESTO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nEASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 20.3N  75.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.5N  76.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.9N  78.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 24.6N  80.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 26.6N  80.4W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 31.0N  80.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 34.0N  77.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 36.0N  75.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES AND\r\nSYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A\r\nCENTER.  BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...THE CENTER\r\nIS JUST INLAND OF THE NORTH COAST.  THE SYSTEM BECAME QUITE\r\nDISORGANIZED... WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND NEAR\r\nTHE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.  SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY BE DUE\r\nTO THE INFLUENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nOF ERNESTO.  RECENTLY...HOWEVER...SOME NEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  WE EXPECT SOME\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC\r\nWATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.  HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN\r\nDISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...IT IS NOT\r\nANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID.  IN FACT...THE\r\nSHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20\r\nPERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES\r\nWITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE\r\nAND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE\r\nFORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS\r\nBEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS\r\nAT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ERNESTO\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE\r\nWATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WARNED AREAS IN FLORIDA AND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION...310/11...IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER\r\nAND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES\r\nIN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSUCH AS THE GFS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE OTHERS HAVE\r\nCHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT OTHERWISE ABOUT THE SAME AS\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE GFDL PREDICTION.  IN 3-5 DAYS THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 21.3N  76.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N  78.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 24.3N  79.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 26.1N  80.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 27.8N  80.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 32.5N  80.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 36.0N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 40.0N  78.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA THROUGH 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nERNESTO WAS STILL INLAND. HIGHEST WINDS FROM THE FLIGHT JUST\r\nOFFSHORE WERE 46 KT ABOUT 6 HOURS AGO...AND MORE RECENTLY 37 KT.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...ERNESTO WILL BE HELD AT MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH. THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS\r\nINLAND...AND SINCE THAT TIME...CUBAN RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM CAMAGUAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. THE RADAR\r\nDATA SHOW A GRADUAL DETERIORATION IN THE ORGANIZATION OF\r\nERNESTO...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY VERY LIMITED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH THE SYSTEM. THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR ANDROS APPEARS\r\nTO BE ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE CYCLONE...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE ANEMIC CONVECTION. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT AND WEAKEN\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING ERNESTO UNDER LIGHT EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THIS WOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE CENTER\r\nCLEARS THE COASTS...BUT THE UPPER WINDS WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR\r\nRAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...AND REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT\r\nERNESTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...THE\r\nLIKLIHOOD OF THIS IS DIMINISHING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES A SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nSHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nAGGRESSIVELY MOVE THE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nDROPSONDE AND RAOB DATA FROM 00Z INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS\r\nSTILL AT 80-81W...STILL AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE'S LONGITUDE.  THIS\r\nCOULD MEAN THAT SOME SLIGHT WESTWARD TRACK ADJUSTMENTS ARE IN THE\r\nOFFING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 21.7N  77.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N  79.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 24.6N  80.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 26.4N  80.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  81.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 33.0N  80.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 36.5N  78.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 39.0N  77.5W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TO INCLUDE INTENSITY STATEMENT FOR SECOND U.S. LANDFALL\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING\r\nERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY MOVED OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA\r\nAND IS BACK OVER WATER. THE CENTER IS JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPORTION OF YET ANOTHER EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE BURST NOTED IN\r\nRADAR DATA FROM MIAMI AND CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND ALSO IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A 50-KT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SPECIAL THANKS TO THE GOVERNMENT OF\r\nCUBA FOR PERMITTING THE RECON AIRCRAFT FLY RIGHT UP TO THEIR\r\nCOASTLINE TO GATHER THIS CRITICAL WEATHER DATA.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE RECON FIX INFORMATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n315/12...WHICH IS RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE GLOBAL\r\nAND REGIONAL MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE STABILIZED NOW COURTESY OF THE\r\nNOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT DATA GETTING INTO THE MODELS. THEY \r\nARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA\r\nIN 18-24 HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE AND\r\nSHIFT EASTWARD AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.\r\nDIGS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE THAT ERNESTO SHOULD\r\nRE-EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OFF THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST AND\r\nMAKE A SECOND LANDFALL IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA AREA IN\r\n60-72 HOURS. AFTER THE SECOND U.S. LANDFALL...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE CAUGHT UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BE DRAWN\r\nNORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND POSSIBLY BECOME A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS...AND THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE VARIOUS NHC CONSENSUS MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT ERNESTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER...AT LEAST SOME STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A SMALL BUT POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nSITUATED ABOUT 120 NMI NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO IS ENHANCING\r\nTHUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...BUT IS ALSO CREATING SOME SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR AND PUNCHING DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE HINDERING EFFECTS OF THAT SYSTEM ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS\r\nTO DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ERNESTO IS PASSING OVER THE\r\nWARM GULFSTREAM. IN 18 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS\r\nERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR ZERO...SO THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA.\r\nALSO...AFTER ERNESTO RE-EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC...IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT IT COULD RE-STRENGTHEN TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE\r\nMAKING A SECOND U.S. LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 22.6N  78.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 23.8N  79.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 25.4N  80.7W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 27.3N  81.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 29.7N  80.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 34.7N  79.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 38.0N  79.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 42.0N  80.0W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF\r\nERNESTO IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED YET.  SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NOAA\r\nPLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL NEAR 40 KT...AND A\r\nNEW FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOT FALLING...IMPLYING THAT INTENSIFICATION HAS\r\nNOT OCCURRED THUS FAR. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW CONSIDERABLE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION.    THERE IS STILL\r\nA REMOTE POSSIBILITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER\r\nTODAY...HOWEVER NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ERNESTO\r\nBECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE\r\nGFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.  AFTER ERNESTO MOVES\r\nFROM FLORIDA BACK INTO THE ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT IS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nEARLIER AIRCRAFT FIXES...AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY\r\nTHUS FAR FROM LAND-BASED RADARS.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n315/11.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA AND THEN\r\nACCELERATE AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS HAS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN THE 12-24 HOURS TIME FRAME...AND SO HAS THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 23.3N  79.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.4N  80.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 26.3N  81.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  81.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 30.9N  80.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 39.5N  79.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 43.0N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n\r\nDURING THE DAY...ERNESTO BECAME SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED-LOOKING ON\r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES.  RECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE PRESENTATION\r\nHAS BECOME A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING ON THE IMAGERY.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nHAVE NOT INCREASED...AND THE FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WAS ROUGHLY COMMENSURATE WITH THE TYPICAL SEMI-DIURNAL\r\nPRESSURE CHANGE.  IN OTHER WORDS...ERNESTO IS NOT STRENGTHENING. \r\nIT IS SOMEWHAT PUZZLING WHY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT\r\nINTENSIFIED TODAY.  ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR MIGHT BE MODEST EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AS SUGGESTED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND A WESTWARD TILT OF THE\r\nVORTEX WITH HEIGHT AS IMPLIED BY CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM\r\nAIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1500 AND 7500 FEET AS WELL AS WSR-88D RADAR. \r\nTHERE IS STILL A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO GAIN\r\nSOME STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING FLORIDA...BUT THAT WINDOW WILL SOON\r\nCLOSE.  AFTER ERNESTO MOVES BACK OVER WATER AND APPROACHES THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THEREFORE A HURRICANE WATCH HAS\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA COAST...THE SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nCOAST...AND A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...320/11...HAS CONTINUED.  HOWEVER...THE HEADING IS LIKELY\r\nTO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS ERNESTO\r\nROUNDS THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  IN A DAY OR SO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE\r\nSOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AHEAD OF A TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE FLOW BETWEEN THE\r\nTROUGH AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD MOVE ERNESTO BACK\r\nINLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT\r\nENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 24.3N  80.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 25.6N  80.9W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 27.5N  81.1W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 29.9N  80.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 32.5N  79.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 37.0N  78.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 40.5N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 43.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT ERNESTO IS HOLDING STEADY WITH A\r\nPRESSURE OF 1004 MB. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT SUPPORT\r\nSURFACE WINDS OF 37 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.\r\nSINCE THE CENTER WILL BE OVER LAND SHORTLY...THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO\r\nMORE CHANCE FOR STRENGTHENING. SLOW DECAY IS THEN EXPECTED OVER\r\nFLORIDA...AND HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING OCCURS AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES\r\nINTO THE ATLANTIC DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE IS LEFT.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST ERNESTO MAY BE GETTING SOME BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AT\r\nTHAT TIME...AND THE GFDL STILL WANTS TO MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE IN\r\nTHE ATLANTIC. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOR A CAROLINA'S LANDFALL IS ONLY REDUCED SLIGHTLY AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE FIX AND CENTER DROPSONDE INDICATE ERNESTO HAS NOT QUITE\r\nMADE LANDFALL. IN FACT...THE CENTER HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 330/8. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL CONSENSUS. IN\r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT\r\nENCOUNTERS A BLOCKING PATTERN NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 24.9N  80.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 26.6N  81.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 28.6N  80.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 31.2N  80.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 33.8N  79.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 37.5N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 40.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA EARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND 1003 MB PRESSURE JUST\r\nBEFORE ERNESTO MADE ITS SECOND FLORIDA LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPENINSULA NEAR THE MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY LINE.\r\nRECON ALSO FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT JUST OFFSHORE\r\nTHE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS. SINCE THEN...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FORM THE\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT INDICATE THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS AT DOWN TO AT LEAST 1001 MB. ALSO...THE NWS MIAMI\r\nDOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED VELOCITIES OF 45-50 KT FROM 200 TO 3000\r\nFEET ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND EXTENDING\r\nINLAND...AS WELL AS OVER THE UPPER KEYS. A FEW SPOTS OF 55 KT WINDS\r\nHAVE ALSO BEEN NOTED...AND THE FOWEY ROCKS C-MAN STATION HAS\r\nREPORTED A WIND GUST TO 50 KT ALONG WITH A 10-METER WIND EQUIVALENT\r\nOF 37-40 KT. BASE DON THIS DATA...THE INTENSITY OF ERNESTO WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/07. ERNESTO APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY\r\nTURNING MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH IS\r\nRIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS FEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACKS. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT ON THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND FLORIDA TO GRADUALLY ERODE EASTWARD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING\r\nEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT\r\n...AND EXIT THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN CAPE CANAVERAL AND\r\nDAYTONA BEACH. ANOTHER LANDFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE\r\nSOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH A SHARP\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH EXPECTED AFTER THAT. IN 72-96 HOURS...THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO CLOSE OFF INTO A POTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH\r\nSHOULD ACT TO PULL ERNESTO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT\r\nLAKES AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND\r\nTHEN IS MORE LEFT OF TRACK AND SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nERNESTO COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS WHILE THE CENTER REMAIN OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD ALSO HOLD\r\nONTO TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO RAINBANDS ALONG THE\r\nCOAST CONTAINING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. AFTER ERNESTO EMERGES\r\nBACK OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN ABOUT 18 HOURS OR SO...IT WILL BE\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD RIGHT OVER THE GULFSTREAM AND BENEATH A\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME. FRICTIONAL EFFECTS CAUSED BY\r\nTHE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP AND IMPROVE THE\r\nOVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO TODAY...WHICH WILL ENHANCE\r\nTHE OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO RE-STRENGTHEN ONCE IT IS BACK OVER\r\nWATER. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ERNESTO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL AGAIN...AND FOR THAT REASON\r\nTHE FOR MAINTAINING THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH\r\nAND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS. THE GFDL MODEL IS FORECASTING ERNESTO TO\r\nBE AT 79 KT JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL AGAIN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO\r\nHIGH BUT STILL INDICATIVE THAT IT COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS. AS\r\nA SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA OVER NORTHERN\r\nNEW ENGLAND...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR KEEPING\r\nERNESTO AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 72 HOURS AND FOR EXPANDING THE WIND\r\nFIELD FARTHER TO THE EAST AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 25.6N  80.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 27.2N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 32.2N  79.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 34.7N  78.9W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 38.5N  78.7W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 41.5N  80.0W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS WELL-INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND WINDS\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN\r\nDOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. A FEW GUSTS TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST\r\nASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS. THE CLOUD PATTERN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nREMAINS ORGANIZED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ERNESTO TO\r\nRE-INTENSIFY ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT.\r\nTHERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER WATER AND THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME IS THAT\r\nERNESTO WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.    \r\n\r\nERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nHURRICANE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH BRING ERNESTO TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48 HOURS ERNESTO\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 26.4N  80.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 28.5N  80.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 31.0N  80.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  79.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 40.0N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 44.8N  79.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED TO REMOVE INLAND AT THE 12 HR TIME...\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA PRODUCING INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION AND A\r\nFEW RAINBANDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS REMAIN\r\nABOUT 30 KNOTS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nIS STILL ORGANIZED AND THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.\r\nTHEREFORE...ERNESTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RE-INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY ONCE\r\nIT MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nERNESTO IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AND SOON IT\r\nWILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON THIS TRACK..THE CENTER OF\r\nERNESTO WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND NEARING THE SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY.  TRACK MODELS ARE CLUSTERED AND BRING\r\nERNESTO TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.\r\nBECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND ON\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nEXTENDED EASTWARD TO CAPE LOOKOUT.  ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 27.6N  80.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 29.5N  80.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 32.4N  79.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 35.0N  79.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 37.5N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 43.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE BROAD CENTER OF ERNESTO\r\nIS MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WITH A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1000 MB.  REPORTS FROM BUOY 41009 AND THE\r\nMELBOURNE WSR-88D SHOW THAT WINDS ARE NEAR TROPICAL STORM-FORCE\r\nOVER THE ATLANTIC EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE DATA DOES NOT YET\r\nJUSTIFY AN UPGRADE.  HOWEVER...ERNESTO WILL LIKELY REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE CYCLONE AROUND 06Z. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12.  ERNESTO IS NOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWARD\r\nAND NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER\r\nTHE OHIO VALLEY.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE\r\nONLY DIVERGENCE COMING AFTER ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND STARTS TO DISINTEGRATE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS NUDGED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nERNESTO HAS A DECENT...BUT BROAD...CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN AND\r\nWIND CIRCULATION.   THIS...COMBINED WITH FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR\r\nDUE TO THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...SUGGEST THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION\r\nSHOULD BE GRADUAL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SUCH\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AND SLIGHTLY\r\nABOVE THAT FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\n12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY\r\n41009. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 28.7N  80.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 30.8N  79.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  79.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 35.9N  78.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 37.9N  78.2W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 43.0N  79.5W    25 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR\r\nTWO.  THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW\r\nTRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT.  A\r\nDROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nFOUND MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF 51 KT WHICH EQUATES TO\r\nA SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 43 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE \r\nSET AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nERNESTO HAS ABOUT 18 HOURS OVER WATER IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY. THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS\r\nFOLLOWED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT\r\nERNESTO COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE\r\nFORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AND PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE COAST...BUT\r\nREACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS UNLIKELY.  AFTER LANDFALL IN\r\nTHE CAROLINAS...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/13.  THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  AS ERNESTO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nCUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nREMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nBASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41010.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 30.0N  80.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 32.1N  79.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 34.6N  78.6W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 37.0N  78.2W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 39.3N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 44.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT\r\nLIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN\r\nTHE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT\r\n10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE\r\nCOAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD\r\nENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF  ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64\r\nKNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST.  THE\r\nINTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA\r\nP-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR\r\nINSTRUMENT.   \r\n\r\nONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT\r\nWITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND\r\nPRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.        \r\n\r\nERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 15\r\nKNOTS AND IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TODAY AND\r\nTONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 31.3N  79.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 33.4N  78.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 36.0N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  78.0W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 40.1N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nEXTENSIVE RECONNAISSANCE WITH BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE\r\n60 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 991 MB.  SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR PRESENTATION SHOW A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND\r\nWRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ERNESTO\r\nIS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND ON THIS\r\nTRACK...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE\r\nWARNING AREA TONIGHT WITH 60 KNOTS. ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AT\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT\r\nWITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND\r\nPRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA\r\nPENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST\r\nOFFICE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 32.6N  78.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 34.7N  78.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 37.0N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 38.5N  77.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 41.0N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND DATA\r\nFROM THE WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA WSR-88D INDICATE THAT ERNESTO\r\nHAS COME UP JUST SHORT IN ITS BID TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE RADAR\r\nSHOWED WINDS NEAR 75 KT ABOUT 3000 FT ABOVE THE SURFACE A FEW HOURS\r\nAGO...BUT THOSE WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nJUST REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB ABOUT 10 N MI\r\nFROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH 63 KT WINDS\r\n70 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SOME CENTRAL CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nOVER WATER...AND UNTIL THIS IS INLAND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT\r\nERNESTO COULD BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS.  OVERALL...ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN OVER LAND...THEN BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY\r\nTHE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48-72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/16.  ERNESTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HR AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nALL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...AND THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  IT IS SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA\r\nPENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST\r\nOFFICE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 33.9N  78.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 35.7N  77.3W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 37.6N  77.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 39.4N  77.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 41.7N  78.4W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":31,"Date":"2006-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED DESCRIPTION OF WHEN SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...\r\n \r\nWSR-88D DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS MOVING STEADILY\r\nINLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n010/13.  THE REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE RAINFALL IS NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER AND ALREADY EXTENDS INTO VIRGINIA...BUT RECENT\r\nVELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT 50 KT WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE OCEAN...AND THAT IS THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER MOVES\r\nFARTHER INLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE DECAY SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE IN ANTICIPATING ERNESTO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR\r\nLESS THAN 12 MORE HOURS.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTOMORROW AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BOTH\r\nTHE INTENSITY AND TRACK SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ARE VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA\r\nPENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST\r\nOFFICE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 35.1N  77.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 36.7N  77.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 38.6N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 40.5N  78.1W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 42.7N  79.2W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":32,"Date":"2006-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS WEAKENED\r\nAND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO\r\nTHE NORTH IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT\r\nFOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE COAST. SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.\r\n \r\nERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT\r\n12 KNOTS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nIT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON ERNESTO.\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 PM EDT.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 36.4N  77.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 40.0N  78.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 41.5N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES HAS A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION TO GARNER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  BUOY 41026 REPORTED 32 KT WINDS LATE THIS\r\nMORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SINCE DECREASED...AND THIS IS THE\r\nBASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND THERE MAY BE\r\nMULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS THEREFORE UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12.  A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS\r\nWEAKNESS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRESENT MOTION TO CONTINUE...WITH SOME\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT...WITH\r\nHIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS\r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT TOWARDS THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH GREAT DIFFERENCES IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER\r\nMOTION OF THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS...WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF BEING\r\nCONSIDERABLY SLOWER.  WITH CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE\r\nCENTER WILL CONSOLIDATE.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE THE CENTER COULD\r\nCONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND BE MORE\r\nINFLUENCED BY THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME\r\nMORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE\r\nBRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FROM THESE TWO MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 14.6N  40.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 15.6N  41.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 16.8N  43.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 17.7N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  46.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N  50.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  54.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  59.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE APPARENT ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE SYSTEM.  BANDING FEATURES NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER ARE A\r\nLITTLE BETTER DEFINED...HOWEVER THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE BECOMING A\r\nLITTLE MORE ELONGATED TO THE NORTH AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CYCLONE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...30 KT...AND 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  BECAUSE THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nCENTER LOCATION LEADS TO UNCERTAINTY IN SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATION...THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nSOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...COULD INHIBIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER THIS SHEAR\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SO A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PREDICTED TO BECOME MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT BELOW THE 1800 UTC GFDL GUIDANCE IN 4-5 DAYS.  WE\r\nBELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAD A HIGH\r\nINTENSITY BIAS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE OCEAN COUPLING.\r\n\r\nIT IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THIS TIME\r\nBUT THE LATEST FIXES ARE ALL TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS POSITION\r\nESTIMATES.  THEREFORE THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT AND WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  MY INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNEAR 50W LONGITUDE SHOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO\r\nMORE OR LESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN WOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE TRACK TO BEND TOWARD THE LEFT IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE RECALLED THAT TRACK FORECAST ERRORS CAN BE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES\r\nIN THE 5-DAY TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 14.8N  40.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 15.9N  42.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 17.0N  43.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N  45.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N  47.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N  51.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  56.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N  61.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nOVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE BROAD WITH SEVERAL POSSIBLE CENTERS. \r\nALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...THEY ARE SOMEWHAT\r\nREMOVED FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS AND\r\nUNCHANGED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE\r\nENCOUNTERING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THIS TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...SO VERTICAL SHEAR MAY LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM.\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS...AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n310/10 IS UNCERTAIN.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 45W-55W LONGITUDE.  THIS\r\nWEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS ALLOWING A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO SHIFT\r\nEASTWARD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. \r\nWHILE ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TURN...NEARLY ALL OF THEM ARE NOW MUCH SLOWER IN\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED.  THIS REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENT AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 15.6N  41.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N  42.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N  44.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.4N  45.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  47.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 22.0N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...THOUGH\r\nTHESE BANDS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT FAR FROM THE CENTER.   A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS OVER THE DEPRESSION AT 0901 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE ARE PLENTY OF\r\n25 TO 30 KT WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION... AND A SMALL AREA OF\r\nPOSSIBLY RAIN-INFLATED 35 KT VECTORS.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL STORM STRENGTH... QUIKSCAT IS NOT CLEARLY\r\nSUPPORTIVE OF SUCH AN INTENSITY AND WITH THE CONVECTION REMAINING A\r\nLITTLE THIN... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT.\r\n \r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RATHER DEEP TROUGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY A SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH\r\nWEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER... THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO FRACTURE... LEAVING\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BEHIND... TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THIS UPPER\r\nLOW SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM... AND IN ITS WAKE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS RESPOND BY BUILDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER THE STORM. THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING\r\nTHAN SHOWN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW A BLEND\r\nOF THE GFDL AND SHIPS WILL BE USED...WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRECENT VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A WESTWARD RELOCATION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION BY ABOUT 60 MILES... GIVING A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE MOTION\r\nOF 305/10. THE LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN\r\nSHEARING THE SYSTEM IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH... CAUSING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MIDDLE\r\nTROPOSPHERIC PORTION OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PULL OUT IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS... AND SHOULD ALLOW A WESTWARD TURN AROUND THAT TIME. THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...SOMEWHAT\r\nTO REFLECT THE CENTER RELOCATION... BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST.  TOWARD\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST... A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SEEMS\r\nMOST LIKELY WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nSOME MODELS SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EXTENDED\r\nPERIOD... WHICH IS A LITTLE PUZZLING GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGING. \r\nWE'VE OPTED TO BE AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT STILL SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE GFS/GFDL/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 16.3N  42.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 17.0N  44.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.8N  45.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 18.5N  47.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 19.2N  48.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 20.0N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  55.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 22.0N  59.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.\r\nIN FACT... IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A\r\nSOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE.  THE CENTER... AS BEST WE CAN\r\nTELL... IS BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LOOKING\r\nINCREASINGLY LINEAR.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM\r\nEARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON\r\nTO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO\r\nDIMINISH... ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS... AFTER WHICH MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nLOWERED IN THE NEAR-TERM TO REFLECT THE DISORGANIZED INITIAL\r\nSTATE... BUT IS KEPT ALMOST THE SAME IN THE LATER TERM OUT OF\r\nRESPECT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS... WHICH ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY HAVE THE\r\nSYSTEM IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM DAYS 3-5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 305/10.\r\nCOMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN A COUPLE\r\nDAYS...AFTER A LARGE TROUGH DEPARTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\nHOWEVER...THE BIG DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE SYSTEM'S\r\nSPEED. NOGAPS SHOOTS THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN\r\nUNBELIEVABLY FAST RATE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET... AFTER BEING ONE OF THE\r\nSLOWEST MODELS... HAS MADE A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND IS NOW\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFS POSITION. WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST...\r\nWE'VE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN A MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE NOGAPS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 16.9N  43.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.6N  45.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.3N  46.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  48.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  50.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  54.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N  58.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY IN TRYING TO DETERMINE A CENTER\r\nPOSITION THIS EVENING. BUOY 41041 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION INDICATED A WEAK CIRCULATION\r\nHAD PASSED OVER OR NEAR THAT BUOY AROUND 00Z. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING THE PAST DAY OR SO\r\nHAS BECOME LESS OBVIOUS IN QUIKSCAT AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY POSITION IS A BLEND OF\r\nCONVENTIONAL FIX POSITIONS AND A 04/2130Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THIS\r\nPOSITION IS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE NOTED IN\r\nNIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA...AND LEANS CLOSER TO\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. UNTIL THE CENTER CONSOLIDATES\r\nAND BECOMES BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THERE\r\nMAY BE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MIGRATES\r\nTOWARD ANY CONVECTIVE BURSTS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION OF THE\r\nLARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE SHOULD BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.\r\nBY DAY 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP BETWEEN 65W-75W LONGITUDE. HOWEVER...THE WEAK LOW-LATITUDE\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CREATE THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nEAST OF FLORIDA IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PHASE UP WITH A\r\nMUCH STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO SWING RAPIDLY\r\nEASTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT\r\nOFTENTIMES STRONGER MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL BYPASS AND NOT\r\nLINK UP WITH WEAKER TROUGHS SITUATED OVER LOWER LATITUDES. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nPOLEWARD BEND BY DAY 5...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN FIGHTING OFF\r\nSOME DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT TO\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...AFTER 72HOURS...THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT...\r\nAND BY 96-120 HOURS BE NEAR ZERO. THAT IS WHEN MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 87 KT BY 120 HOURS\r\n...WHEREAS THE GFDL STILL MAKES THE SYSTEM A MAJOR HURRICANE AT THAT\r\nTIME. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AS INDICATED BY THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IN\r\nTHE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nREMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND BELOW THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 17.3N  44.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 17.9N  45.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 18.6N  47.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.2N  49.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.8N  51.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 21.0N  56.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 22.0N  60.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  65.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n \r\nWHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE\r\nOVERALL ORGANIZATION REMAINS POOR.  THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTER\r\nPERIPHERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30\r\nKT. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL FIGHTING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UNUSUALLY HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH...AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS.  GIVEN THIS AND THE\r\nPRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT\r\nANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT-TERM.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO FRACTURE FORMING AN UPPER\r\nLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN...IF VERIFIED...WOULD\r\nRESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. \r\nHOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION HAS A TOUGH ROAD IN THE INTERIM...AND WILL\r\nNEED TO SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO REACH THIS IMPROVED\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THIS COMPLEX EVOLUTION MEANS GREATER THAN USUAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nLOCATING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A DIFFICULT TASK. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE TRANSIENT\r\nCENTERS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION. THE ADVISORY POSITION\r\nIS BASED ON THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION YIELDING AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 300/11.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO\r\nSHIFT EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 17.7N  45.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 18.4N  47.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.2N  49.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.9N  50.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 20.5N  53.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 22.0N  58.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  62.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 25.5N  66.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TD-6 HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS INTENSIFIED INTO VERY\r\nLARGE TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS\r\nBASED ON WIND DATA FROM 05/0836Z QUIKSCAT AND 05/1002 SSMI\r\nOVERPASSES THAT REVEALED LARGE PATCHES OF 30-35 KT UNCONTAMINATED\r\nWINDS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT STRONGER\r\nWINDS EXIST IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT THAT ASSESSMENT CAN\r\nWAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE TO SEE IF CONVECTION PERSISTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS AND ALSO ONE AT 04/2130Z NOW CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nBROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH BY AT LEAST 40 NMI THAN\r\nINDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE ADVISORY POSITION IS ROUGHLY\r\nMIDWAY BETWEEN TWO SMALLER CIRCULATIONS -- ONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT AND ONE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT THAT PASSED BY NOAA\r\nBUOY 41041 EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN RELOCATING THE CENTER\r\nFARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL ADVISORIES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE \r\n...WHICH IS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL\r\nPOSITION. THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WILL BE THE\r\nMAIN STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP\r\nFLORENCE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT A WEAK SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO NORTH OF FLORENCE AND ALLOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE\r\nVERDICT IS STILL OUT ON THE SCENARIO GIVEN THE RELATIVE WEAKNESS OF\r\nTHE SHORTWAVE TROUGH INDICATED IN THE MODEL WIND FIELDS.\r\n\r\nSINCE FLORENCE HAS A RATHER LARGE WIND FIELD THAT IS AT LEAST 400\r\nNMI IN DIAMETER ALONG WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90-100\r\nNMI...ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48-72\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTRACT IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER 29C\r\nSSTS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO\r\nOCCUR. THE ONLY REASON THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL\r\nFOR FLORENCE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nEXACTLY HOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE BY THAT TIME.\r\nALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT FLORENCE WILL BE NEAR A NARROW 200\r\nMB ANTICYCLONE...BUT THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CYCLONE RELATIVE TO\r\nTHAT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING JUST HOW\r\nINTENSE FLORENCE COULD BECOME BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS CONSERVATIVE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 17.3N  47.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 17.9N  48.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 18.6N  50.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  53.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 20.1N  55.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.6N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.3N  63.8W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  67.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS ALSO BEGUN TO DEVELOP IN THE INNER CORE\r\nREGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE\r\nOF FLORENCE...PLUS A 05/1641Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 1003 MB AND\r\n42 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER THAT. THE MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING AN EVENTUAL BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE AXIS BETWEEN 65W-75W FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. HOWEVER\r\n...EACH RUN HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST.\r\nGIVEN THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND THAT A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY\r\n5...THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING THE AMOUNT OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY\r\nFORECAST TO GENERATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nREMAINS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH FLORENCE CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED...IT REMAINS AN\r\nUNUSUALLY LARGE ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM...AND LARGE CYCLONES TEND\r\nTO TAKE LONGER TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THAN SMALLER ONES DO. AS A\r\nRESULT...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS OR SO...WITH A FASTER RATE OF STRENGTHENING INDICATED AFTER\r\nTHAT AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER 29-29.5C SSTS AND BENEATH DECREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR. IF FLORENCE MOVES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF A 200 MB\r\nANTICYCLONE LIKE THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS ARE\r\nSUGGESTING...THEN STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE LIKE THE\r\nGFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ARE FORECASTING WILL BE POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 17.4N  48.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  49.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 18.8N  51.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 19.7N  54.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 20.6N  56.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.3N  61.1W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.3N  65.7W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 27.0N  69.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY LARGE...FINDING\r\nTHE EXACT CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM\r\nTHE 2105 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS\r\nBROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  THE CENTER THAT WE\r\nHAVE BEEN TRACKING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN \r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS VERY\r\nSTRONG...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE BANDING FEATURES.  DUE TO THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 30 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. \r\nTHEREFORE....THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE \r\nTO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND BEGIN\r\nTURNING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nEASTWARD...CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nAT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFLORENCE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO \r\nCUT-OFF AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...MUCH LIKE THE EVOLUTION\r\nPREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RELAX WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW STRENGTHENING \r\nAND INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2\r\nDAYS.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVAILABLE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED\r\nUSING GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...WHICH DEPICT A\r\nRATHER LARGE CIRCULATION.  THESE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SKILL IN\r\nFORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER WIND FIELDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 17.7N  49.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.3N  51.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.3N  55.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.3N  57.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  66.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 28.5N  69.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n \r\nA SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BOTH ELONGATED AND DISPLACED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...THIS FLARE UP DOES NOT\r\nNECESSARILY INDICATE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OR AN INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY. INDEED...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE UNCHANGED AT 40 KT AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WAS 42 KT. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 40 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO FRACTURE CAUSING THE\r\nFORMATION OF AN UPPER LOW.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LOW\r\nWILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO CAUSING A GRADUAL\r\nREDUCTION IN VERTICAL SHEAR AND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THIS EXPECTED EVOLUTION IS STRONGLY\r\nDEPENDENT ON THE PHASING OF THE UPPER LOW AND THE CYCLONE.  SHOULD\r\nFLORENCE GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER LOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD\r\nLIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY\r\nEXISTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL\r\nRELAX IN A DAY OR SO ALLOWING GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...THE CENTER OF\r\nFLORENCE CONTINUES TO JUMP AROUND A BIT WITH THE CURRENT POSITION\r\nINDICATING SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nTHUS BASED ON A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDING 300/11.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NORTH OF FLORENCE.  GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN MORE NORTHWARD IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nCYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. \r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THE GLOBALS CONTINUE TO SHOW DISCREPANCIES IN THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF AN UPSTREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND.  THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES\r\nAMONG THE MODELS IN THE DEGREE...TIMING...AND LOCATION OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED NORTHWARD TURN. THE MOST NOTABLE SHIFT IN GUIDANCE\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE IS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH\r\nHAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO NORTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST AND A LITTLE\r\nEAST LATE.  GIVEN THE APPARENT NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER\r\nINITIALLY...THIS SHIFT APPEARS REASONABLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOP. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 18.4N  50.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 19.2N  51.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 20.3N  53.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.4N  55.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 22.4N  57.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 24.4N  62.6W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 27.0N  66.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 29.5N  68.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD SWIRL\r\nWITH SOME THIN CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANTS.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE\r\nLOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SHIP MSJZ8 REPORTED\r\n34 KT WINDS ABOUT 250 MILES FROM THE CENTER...BEYOND THE STRONGEST\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND AFWA...AND 35 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION NOW APPEARS TO BE MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT WAS LAST\r\nNIGHT...AND I AM PLACING THE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER ONLY A LITTLE\r\nBIT NORTHWEST OF THE CLOUD SWIRL.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10. \r\nTHE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE UPPER LOW\r\nCENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE.  THIS COULD IMPART\r\nMORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS\r\nAS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AT THE MOMENT...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO ITS NORTHWEST.  RIGHT NOW THE LOW\r\nIS RESPONSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND BROAD-SCALE DESCENT OVER\r\nTHE CENTER...WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE DIFLUENT FLOW LOCATED WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  THE UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT.  THE GFDL MODEL IS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOWS FLORENCE AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 18.3N  50.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  52.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  54.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N  57.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 23.0N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N  64.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N  67.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 31.0N  67.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n \r\nEVEN AS FLORENCE SHOWS SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS MADDENINGLY DIFFICULT TO TRACK. THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN ROTATING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AROUND A\r\nPRESUMED BUT INVISIBLE OVERALL SYSTEM CENTER TO ITS WEST. AN 18\r\nHOUR AVERAGE GIVES 295/8 FOR THE ADVISORY MOTION. THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...SO I'LL JUST PLAGIARIZE\r\nTHIS MORNING'S DISCUSSION. THE KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM REMAINS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST\r\nOF FLORENCE. THIS COULD IMPART MORE OF A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL...BUT THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE\r\nIN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWARD TURN\r\nBY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE WELL-CLUSTERED\r\nPRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS.  \r\n\r\nTHE MAJOR CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY IS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN GRADUALLY MIGRATING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  OVER\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING OVER\r\nTHE NOW-OBSCURED CLOUD SWIRL...AND THIS MAY BE THE BEGINNING OF A\r\nMORE SUBSTANTIAL INTENSIFICATION.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES\r\nWESTWARD...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT.  GLOBAL MODELS AGREE\r\nON DEVELOPING A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORENCE IN THREE DAYS OR SO\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE IN MAKING FLORENCE A MAJOR HURRICANE.  TOWARD THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nFLORENCE...ALREADY A LARGE CYCLONE...WILL GET EVEN LARGER.  \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 19.0N  51.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  53.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  55.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 22.7N  58.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 23.7N  60.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 26.0N  65.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 29.0N  67.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 32.5N  67.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n \r\nAS HAS BEEN THE CASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THE CENTER OF\r\nFLORENCE REMAINS VERY DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY.  THE LATEST SATELLITE\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES ARE OVER 90 NM\r\nAPART...AND THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE FROM A\r\nCOUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OR SHIP REPORTS.  GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nA WELL DEFINED CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN\r\n300/9.  NOTWITHSTANDING OUR LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT\r\nLOCATION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWED BY A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nINSIST ON AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW AS MUCH\r\nACCELERATION AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED INDICATED BY THE LATEST GFDL\r\nMODEL RUN.  OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SIMPLE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nDETERMINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC BECAUSE OF THE\r\nAMBIGUITY OF THE CENTER POSITION.  HOWEVER OUR BEST ESTIMATE...\r\nUSING THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN...INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT WIND\r\nSPEED REMAINS AT 45 KT.  FLORENCE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT\r\nAMORPHOUS AND CONTINUES TO LACK DEFINITE BANDING FEATURES...AS\r\nAPPARENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. \r\nWATER VAPOR ANIMATION...HOWEVER...SHOWS THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nLOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SLOWLY\r\nRETREATING WESTWARD.  THIS WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX AND\r\nPERMIT FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...SHOWING A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER IN THE PERIOD.  WE\r\nSHOULD NOTE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION PARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 19.6N  52.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N  54.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 21.9N  56.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 23.1N  59.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 24.3N  62.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 27.0N  66.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  67.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 33.5N  66.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nFRUSTRATION CONTINUES OVERNIGHT TRYING TO LOCATE THE PRIMARY\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE.  A 0345 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A\r\n0507 UTC AMSU OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME INDICATIONS OF AN OVERALL\r\nSYSTEM CENTER...BUT ALSO SHOWED AT LEAST ONE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LOCATION.  ENHANCED INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE APPEARANCE OF FLORENCE VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO 24 HOURS AGO...WITH A SLIGHT CURVED BANDING FEATURE AND WARMER\r\nCLOUD TOPS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS A\r\nRECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9.  DESPITE THE QUANDARY\r\nIN FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  CONSEQUENTLY\r\nTHE REASONING IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED.  FLORENCE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...THEN SLOW A BIT AS THE\r\nCYCLONE TURNS MORE TO THE NORTH AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS CLOSELY THROUGH 5 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND ENCOUNTER LESS\r\nSHEAR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED A FEW\r\nHUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOVES WESTWARD AND WEAKENS. \r\nTHIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FLORENCE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH\r\nMOST OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS\r\nFLORENCE TO JUST UNDER MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...HOWEVER IT STILL\r\nCOULD REACH CATEGORY THREE IN BETWEEN THE FORECAST PERIODS.  THIS\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE. ONCE AGAIN...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE\r\nIS LIMITED SKILL IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTION\r\nPARTICULARLY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. \r\n\r\nA SHIP REPORT AT 0600 UTC...FROM MSJZ8...REPORTED A 34 KT SUSTAINED\r\nWIND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS REPORT JUSTIFIED EXPANDING THE\r\nWIND RADII OUT TO 250 N MI OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 20.1N  53.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N  54.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 22.6N  57.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 24.0N  60.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  63.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 27.5N  66.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 30.5N  67.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 35.0N  66.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/07 OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE\r\nREMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS OR REASONINGS. UNUSUALLY LARGE...OVER 700 NMI IN\r\nDIAMETER...FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP BY 96 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO\r\nSOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. AFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5\r\nKT AS FLORENCE IS MOVING OVER 29C SSTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 19.8N  53.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 21.0N  55.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 22.4N  58.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 23.6N  60.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.8N  63.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 27.2N  65.8W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 30.8N  66.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 35.0N  65.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nFLORENCE REMAINS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE...NOW MORE THAN 900 NMI\r\nDIAMETER... NON-CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE WIND FIELD WAS\r\nEXPANDED AGAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...BASED ON\r\nSURROUNDING SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. THE OUTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WHEREAS INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN\r\nTO DEVELOP OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER FOR THE FIRST TIME.\r\nSINCE FLORENCE IS SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM...CONVECTIVE FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nTHE OUTER REGIONS LIKELY WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WIND SPEEDS\r\nSINCE THE LATTER ARE DRIVEN MORE BY THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT\r\nBETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE LARGE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH. NOW\r\nTHAT INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER\r\nTHAT DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. FLORENCE REMAINS ON TRACK SO\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR\r\nREASONING. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON TAKING\r\nFLORENCE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURNING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST\r\nBY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nAND BRINGS FLORENCE VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 20.6N  54.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  56.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 22.8N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 24.0N  61.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 25.2N  63.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.1N  65.7W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  66.0W    95 KT...NEAR BERMUDA\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 38.0N  63.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED\r\nWITH AN ELONGATED SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS NOT VERY TYPICAL\r\nOF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT..CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...\r\nUSING CONTINUITY AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  \r\n\r\nI CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET\r\nINTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST\r\nSTRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND\r\nTHERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF\r\nCONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING\r\nINTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO\r\nBACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES\r\nAT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE\r\nNO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN....HOWEVER...I AM\r\nCONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND WITHIN WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...FLORENCE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS\r\nIT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK MODELS. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING\r\nTHE CYCLONE NEAR BERMUDA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 21.3N  56.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 22.3N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 23.7N  60.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.0N  62.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 26.5N  64.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  65.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 34.0N  64.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 42.0N  58.0W    90 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006\r\n\r\nAS DEPICTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...FLORENCE HAS A VERY\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION BUT CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ORGANIZATION.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT WITH THE EXPECTATION\r\nTHAT SOME STRENGTHENING AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE CLOUD STRUCTURE\r\nWILL SOON COMMENCE.  \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FLORENCE SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW JUST TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A RATHER STRONG RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.\r\nTHESE FEATURES HAVE HELPED INCREASE THE FORWARD MOTION AND IT IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 300/14.  A VERY DEEP TROUGH IS NOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND TAKING A LOOK AT THE\r\nINITIALIZATION OF SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE\r\nGFS...THE TROUGH MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED.  WITH THAT SAID...THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST 72 HOURS...GRADUALLY\r\nSLOWING FLORENCE AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND TURNING THE CYCLONE TO NORTH AND APPROACH BERMUDA.  ONCE\r\nFLORENCE IS NORTH OF THE ISLAND THE MODELS DIFFER IN THE\r\nACCELERATION RATE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nSTAYS IN LINE WITH THE MOTION REPRESENTED BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...\r\nAND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WITH FLORENCE STARTING TRANSITION TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 5.\r\n\r\nONCE AGAIN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. SINCE FLORENCE\r\nIS SUCH A LARGE CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING WILL TAKE LONGER TO\r\nOCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.  FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHENS FLORENCE AFTER RECURVATURE OCCURS.  THIS\r\nSOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO OVER\r\n40 KNOTS AFTER 3 DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 22.1N  57.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 23.1N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 24.4N  61.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 25.8N  63.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 27.4N  64.6W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  65.0W    90 KT...NEAR BERMUDA\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 37.0N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 45.0N  53.0W    80 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHAPELESS WITH VERY ASYMMETRIC\r\nCONVECTION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 35 KNOTS. I\r\nWAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT I WILL HOLD IT AT 45 KNOTS\r\nFOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY AND BASED ON SEVERAL..BUT LESS RELIABLE\r\nHI-RES QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ON THE EDGE OF THE SWATH.  FLORENCE\r\nHAS REFUSED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IN THE TROPICS...LIKE MOST THE\r\nSYSTEMS SO FAR THIS YEAR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY\r\nTO DO SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND BEFORE THE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME AN\r\nINTENSE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FLORENCE\r\nSEEMS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT THERE MUST BE ONE\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF THE STORM. THE\r\nAVERAGE MOTION OF THE LARGE GYRE IS ESTIMATED AT 300/15. THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND FLORENCE CONTINUES\r\nMOVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE\r\nIS CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE NORTHEASTWARD TURN BUT THEY VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE\r\nBERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nNOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS\r\nADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION.\r\nIF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE\r\nPREVAILED.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 23.0N  59.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 23.8N  60.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  63.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 27.0N  64.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 28.5N  65.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 33.0N  64.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 39.0N  60.0W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 48.0N  49.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN BECAME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC A COUPLE OF HOURS\r\nAGO BUT IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT SINCE. HOWEVER...THE\r\nOVERALL TREND SINCE YESTERDAY HAS BEEN TOWARD BETTER ORGANIZATION.\r\nTHIS IS REFLECTED IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED AND\r\nNOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT\r\nFLORENCE WILL BEGIN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY UNDER LOW SHEAR...WARM\r\nSSTS AND THE POTENTIALLY POSITIVE EFFECTS OF A TROUGH INTERACTION.\r\nFLORENCE IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH ALL THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nREACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE\r\nIN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING FLORENCE NEAR BERMUDA AND THEN\r\nTURNING IT TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nFLORENCE HAS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THESE WINDS COULD REACH BERMUDA IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nBERMUDA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 23.9N  60.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 24.9N  61.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 26.5N  63.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 28.5N  65.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 30.5N  65.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 35.0N  63.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 42.0N  57.0W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 47.1N  48.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006\r\n \r\nDURING THE EVENING...INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE\r\nHAS CONSOLIDATED AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST APPEARS TO BE FORMING.\r\nCORRESPONDINGLY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nAT 0000Z SUGGEST 55 KT...WHILE 2119Z AMSU ANALYSES FROM CIRA AND\r\nCIMMS SUGGESTED A WEAKER SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.  GIVEN THE INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION SEEN IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 55 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE FLORENCE IN A FEW HOURS AND PROVIDE A MORE\r\nACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF BOTH ITS INTENSITY AND POSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/13...THOUGH THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\nGIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING THE EXACT CENTER WITH INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY.  FLORENCE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE AND IT SHOULD REACH ITS WESTERNMOST POINT IN ABOUT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS AS IT RECURVES INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS AND NONE TAKE THE SYSTEM WEST OF\r\n66W...SO IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS LITTLE DIRECT THREAT TO THE UNITED\r\nSTATES OUTSIDE OF LARGE SWELLS AND SURF.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THERE\r\nIS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH NOGAPS...GFDL\r\nAND ECMWF TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...THE GFS SLOWER AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AND THE UKMET SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER.  THE UKMET SOLUTION MAY\r\nBE ERRONEOUS GIVEN THAT THE OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY\r\nBAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE REGION THAT THE UKMET CARRIES\r\nFLORENCE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE INNER-CORE DEVELOPMENT...WARM WATERS...LOW SHEAR AND\r\nABUNDANT MOISTURE...FLORENCE SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...COOLER WATERS...HIGHER SHEAR AND\r\nA MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD START THE WEAKENING PROCESS. \r\nHOWEVER...MOST GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE MAY BECOME A\r\nLARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND\r\nSOMEWHAT ABOVE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 24.5N  61.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  63.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 27.0N  64.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 28.7N  65.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 30.7N  65.4W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 35.5N  63.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 42.5N  57.5W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 48.0N  48.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF\r\nFLORENCE ABOUT 04Z...WITH A SECOND FIX ABOUT 0630Z.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nMEASURED MINIMUM PRESSURES OF 998 AND 993 MB ON THE TWO FIXES...\r\nWITH MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT ABOUT 50 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nAIRCRAFT AND RECENT AMSR-E DATA SHOW THAT WHILE THE CONVECTION IS\r\nSTRONG...IT IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...AND A REVIEW OF EARLIER SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT\r\nFLORENCE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HR OR\r\nSO.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nFLORENCE IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM NEAR 21N71W AND A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD TURN FLORENCE NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR...WITH THE STORM RECURVING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nIN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THEREAFTER.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES ON THE RECURVATURE...WITH LBAR CALLING FOR THE FARTHEST WEST\r\nRECURVATURE AT 68W.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NOGAPS...GFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF\r\nBRING THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS IT SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLAND.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS MOVED WESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND NOW CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO PASS\r\nVERY NEAR BERMUDA IN 48-72 HR.  THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 10 KT.  FLORENCE HAS ABOUT A\r\n48-60 HR WINDOW IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONG\r\nSHEAR IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BOTH\r\nFORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100-105 KT IN ABOUT 60 HR...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 87 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nOF 90 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR.  AFTER FLORENCE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES...\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLD AIR INTRUSION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 120 HR.  HOWEVER...\r\nFLORENCE SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE AND VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH THE\r\nTRANSITION PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 24.1N  62.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 25.1N  64.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 26.7N  65.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 28.6N  65.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 30.6N  65.8W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  63.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 43.0N  56.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 49.0N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11...BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND 09/1007Z SSMI AND 09/1015Z\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASSES. THE BASIC FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY ROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN 36-48\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...77 KT...AND 90 KT FROM SAB...TAFB...\r\nAND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE COULD BE A\r\nHURRICANE. HOWEVER...AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TILTED 12-18 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT THERE WAS NO EYE FEATURE PRESENT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY NUDGED UPWARD SLIGHTLY\r\nAND AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AROUND 18Z WILL DETERMINE\r\nWHETHER OR NOT FLORENCE IS A HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 24.7N  63.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 25.9N  64.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 27.7N  65.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 29.7N  65.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 31.9N  65.3W    90 KT...NEAR BERMUDA\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 37.6N  61.6W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  54.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 49.0N  44.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/11. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nFLORENCE IS SEVERELY ELONGATED NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST...DESPITE THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE RECON FIX POSITIONS HAVE COME\r\nIN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED EVEN THOUGH THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK CALLS\r\nFOR FLORENCE TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAFTER WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE BEGINNING OF A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nPHASE THIS MORNING...A SUBSEQUENT RECON PASS THROUGH THE CENTER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY\r\nAND THAT THE EARLIER DEVELOPING EYEWALL HAD DETERIORATED. SOME\r\nMID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS UNDERCUTTING THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nOUTFLOW LAYER...AND THIS HINDERING FLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nABATE UNTIL ABOUT 18-24 HOURS WHEN FLORENCE SHOULD BE TURNING\r\nNORTHWARD THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. OTHER THAN\r\nTO SLOW DOWN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS LOWER THAN THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 25.6N  64.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 26.8N  65.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 28.7N  65.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 30.8N  65.5W    85 KT...APPROACHING BERMUDA\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 33.3N  64.6W    90 KT...NORTH OF BERMUDA\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 39.0N  60.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 45.0N  52.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 49.0N  43.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 09 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING\r\nTONIGHT. A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMED OVER THE APPARENT\r\nCENTER... AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION\r\nOF AN EYE. HOWEVER... RECENTLY THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED. IN\r\nADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2238 UTC DID NOT SHOW ANY WIND SPEEDS\r\nGREATER THAN 50 TO 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY... THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT.  FLORENCE HAS FOOLED US BEFORE AND\r\nIT IS BEST TO WAIT FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nTHAT WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST THE SAME AS BEFORE...\r\n330/11... ALTHOUGH A SHORT-TERM MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER.  TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A PATH NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF\r\nBERMUDA ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER... SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON HOW\r\nFLORENCE INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PULLED A LITTLE\r\nMORE TO THE LEFT... AS IT IS SOMEWHAT CAPTURED BY THE UPPER-TROUGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE\r\nFIRST DAY OR SO... THEN SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSER TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALL SIGNS POINT TO INTENSIFICATION OF FLORENCE...AND IN FACT THIS\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nINDEX INDICATES NEARLY A 50% CHANCE OF A 25 KT INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IN NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT INDICATED ALMOST THE SAME\r\nPROBABILITIES 24 HOURS AGO.  FLORENCE HAS BEEN QUITE STUBBORN AND\r\nHAS REFUSED... SO FAR... TO INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ALMOST ALL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT WITH SOME REDUCTION BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD PEAK A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN THE\r\n36 AND 48 HOUR TIME PERIODS.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 26.6N  64.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 27.9N  65.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 29.8N  65.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 31.8N  65.4W    85 KT...NEAR BERMUDA\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 34.4N  64.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 40.0N  60.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 46.0N  53.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 49.0N  42.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLORENCE HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SURVEYED FLORENCE AND MEASURED AN 84 KT\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AT 0536Z.  THIS\r\nWIND EQUATES TO APPROXIMATELY 67 KT AT THE SURFACE.  AT THAT TIME\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 981 MB.  ON THE NEXT PASS...THE EYE SONDE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE WAS 978 MB WITH 18 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 976 MB.  OVER THE LAST 12\r\nHOURS...THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN ABOUT 17 MB.  FLORENCE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT\r\nENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.  BY 72 HOURS...\r\nFLORENCE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH A SHORT-WAVE\r\nIN THE WESTERLIES. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED.  FLORENCE IS NOW NEARING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATER\r\nTODAY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 27.7N  65.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 29.0N  65.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  66.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 33.5N  65.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 36.4N  63.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 42.5N  56.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 47.0N  49.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 50.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED AN EYEWALL THAT WAS\r\nPARTIALLY OPEN ON THE NORTH SIDE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nNOT INCREASED FROM OVERNIGHT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n70 KT.  HOWEVER...IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THE EYE APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AROUND 1800 UTC\r\nTODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.  \r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND FLORENCE\r\nWILL BE TRAVERSING SSTS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  STRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST AND FLORENCE COULD\r\nBE A STRONG CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHEN IT IS NEAR BERMUDA. \r\nAFTERWARDS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD\r\nIMPART A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER... FLORENCE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ONCE IT UNDERGOES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11.  IT APPEARS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN IS\r\nBEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE AS PREDICTED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS\r\nFLORENCE IS STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE\r\nSOMEWHAT WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH CLOSER \r\nTO NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM.\r\nAT 5 DAYS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD\r\nREQUIRING SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO EXPAND EVEN FURTHER AS A STRONG HIGH BUILDS SOUTHWARD\r\nOVER THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF FLORENCE.  THIS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CREATE ROUGH SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 28.7N  65.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 30.3N  66.2W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 32.7N  65.5W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 35.4N  63.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 38.1N  61.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 44.5N  55.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 48.0N  46.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 48.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FLORENCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY\r\nSINCE THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED ONLY A 1-2 MB DECREASE IN THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM\r\n12 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...THEY FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 96\r\nKT...WHICH IS STRONGER THAN WAS OBSERVED OVERNIGHT.  THE QUESTION\r\nREMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THESE WINDS ARE REACHING THE SURFACE.\r\nDROPSONDE DATA THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT THE REDUCTION FACTOR IS\r\nBETWEEN 80 AND 85 PERCENT FROM THE 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS...A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nRECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A WELL DEVELOPED\r\nEYEWALL.  NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...LIKELY TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nTHE CENTER NEARS BERMUDA IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENING FLORENCE.  THE HURRICANE IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nVERY LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT IS LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODELS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DIVERGE...WITH THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF\r\nDEPICTING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND.  OUT OF\r\nRESPECT FOR THESE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nADJUSTED WESTWARD...A LITTLE CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE\r\nGFS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BUT IS\r\nMUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS.  GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...THERE IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THOSE\r\nTIME RANGES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 29.9N  66.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 31.3N  66.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 33.6N  65.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  63.6W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 38.6N  61.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 45.0N  55.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 48.0N  45.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 48.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PRESSURE WAS ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER\r\nTODAY... 975 MB... WITH 86 KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nCORRESPONDS TO SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 75-80 KT USING\r\nSTANDARD WIND REDUCTION FACTORS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT\r\nAT 80 KT BUT COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKNESS\r\nOF THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS MORE RAGGED THAN SIX HOURS AGO AND THE\r\nLAST AIRCRAFT FIX REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL. STILL...THERE IS A\r\nNARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FLORENCE TO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS HINDER ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THUS... THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A CATEGORY TWO\r\nHURRICANE OVERNIGHT BEFORE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BERMUDA\r\nEARLY MONDAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BETWEEN SHIPS... WHICH PEAKS THE SYSTEM AT\r\n87 KT... AND THE GFDL WHICH STRENGTHENS FLORENCE TO 97 KT.\r\nPHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SHOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE\r\n72 HOUR TIMEFRAME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL LIKELY BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AT HIGH\r\nLATITUDES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nFLORENCE APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS POINT OF RECURVATURE AND IS\r\nMOVING DUE NORTHWARD... 000/12.  A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.  AS THE HURRICANE MOVES FARTHER NORTHWARD... AN\r\nACCELERATED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST SEEMS LIKELY AHEAD OF AN\r\nUPPER-TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW\r\nMUCH INTERACTION FLORENCE WILL HAVE WITH THIS TROUGH.  THE UKMET IS\r\nTHE RIGHTMOST OUTLIER KEEPING THE SYSTEM MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM THE\r\nUPPER TROUGH WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST... BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nBUT STILL ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 31.0N  66.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 32.8N  65.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 35.0N  64.8W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 37.5N  63.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 40.4N  60.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 46.0N  53.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 48.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 49.0N  28.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":31,"Date":"2006-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST FINISHED ONE COMPLETE PATTERN IN\r\nFLORENCE...AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 73 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 86 KT FOUND ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS MISSION.  THE CREW ALSO REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD\r\nERODED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IMAGES FROM THE BERMUDA RADAR. \r\nALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE IS HOLDING STEADY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 70 KT.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL\r\nBE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN INTENSITY BEFORE FLORENCE MOVES AWAY FROM\r\nBERMUDA.  AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nINCREASE SHARPLY AND FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATERS.  HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW ENERGY TO FLORENCE AS IT\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SLOW THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE WIND\r\nFIELD. \r\n\r\nFLORENCE HAS BEGUN ITS RECURVATURE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n010/10.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST\r\nOF BERMUDA...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE GFS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A\r\nFASTER EASTWARD MOTION...BUT INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 31.8N  66.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 33.6N  65.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  64.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 38.5N  62.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 41.5N  60.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 46.5N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 50.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":32,"Date":"2006-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n \r\nTHE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nINDICATED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD FALLEN ONLY A FEW\r\nMB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. \r\nSINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nIMPRESSIVE AND SEVERAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS\r\nHAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM BERMUDA...INCLUDING THE OFFICIAL OBSERVING\r\nSITE ON THE ISLAND.  THE LATTER REPORT WAS RELAYED TO US BY THE\r\nBERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE\r\nLIKELIHOOD OF HIGHER VELOCITIES OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE\r\nCIRCULATION...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 80 KT. \r\nTHE GUST FACTOR IS ALSO SET A LITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND THE\r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE\r\nSAME OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nBOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAIN UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FLORENCE'S INTENSITY IS NOT LIKELY\r\nTO CHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEREAFTER INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART SOME\r\nWEAKENING....HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES MAY PROVIDE NEW ENERGY...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE WEAKENING\r\nPROCESS SLOW.  WIND RADII ARE FORECAST TO SIGNIFICANTLY EXPAND AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nMUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS\r\nAND GFDL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET ARE ON THE RIGHT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 32.9N  65.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 34.7N  64.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 37.1N  63.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 40.0N  60.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 43.4N  56.7W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 47.5N  46.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":33,"Date":"2006-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND RADAR\r\nIMAGERY FROM BERMUDA INDICATES AN EYE THAT IS OPEN TO THE EAST.\r\nGIVEN THE STRONG WINDS REPORTED ACROSS BERMUDA...WE ARE RELUCTANT\r\nTO DECREASE THE WINDS AT THIS TIME.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nSSTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPART A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. AS FLORENCE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...\r\nIT WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH\r\nWILL PROBABLY KEEP THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LARGE AND VERY\r\nPOWERFUL FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/14.  FLORENCE IS BEGINNING TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW\r\nLEANING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE\r\nDEPICTING A HARD RIGHT TURN INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT 2\r\nDAYS...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nA TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A STRONG HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS PRODUCING BRISK NORTHEASTERLY\r\nWINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG NEARLY\r\nTHE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\nTHE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY DOES NOT\r\nFULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THIS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH FLORENCE PASSED ABOUT 48 N MI WEST AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nBERMUDA...THEY WERE VERY CLOSE TO THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE ISLAND EXPERIENCE HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS.  THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER THAT A HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A\r\nPOINT ON THE MAP...AND THAT DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPERIENCED WELL\r\nAWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 34.4N  64.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 36.2N  63.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 38.7N  61.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 42.0N  58.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 45.2N  54.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 49.0N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 51.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":34,"Date":"2006-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE HAS BEEN DETERIORATING WITH\r\nALMOST ALL OF THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE\r\nBEGINNING THE FIRST STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nLOWERED TO 75 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE\r\nSLOWLY TAKES ON NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE WILL BE A LARGE\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE... AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST. ONE QUESTION MARK IS HOW FAST FLORENCE COMPLETES ITS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FSU PHASE-SPACE DIAGRAMS DERIVED FROM\r\nGLOBAL MODEL FIELDS WOULD INDICATE FULL TRANSITION BY 3 DAYS. WE\r\nARE INDICATING FLORENCE TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS... JUST A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THESE MODELS BUT SEEMINGLY REASONABLE SINCE THE\r\nHURRICANE IS ALREADY LOOKING A LITTLE LESS THAN TROPICAL.  \r\n\r\nFLORENCE IS SPEEDING UP TONIGHT... NOW MOVING 025/16. A\r\nMIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER CANADA INTO THE NORTHEAST\r\nUNITED STATES SHOULD ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nWIND RADII ARE A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFS FORECASTS.   \r\n\r\nA TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A STRONG HIGH\r\nCENTERED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG\r\nNORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH AND\r\nDANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS\r\nALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST/\r\nADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THE HUGE AREA OF HIGH WAVES\r\nINDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 35.8N  63.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 37.8N  62.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 40.6N  59.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  56.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 46.5N  51.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 49.5N  37.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 52.0N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":35,"Date":"2006-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n\r\nFLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/17. TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FLORENCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nIN THE EARLY TO MID STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE CLOUD\r\nSHIELD HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICALLY DISPLACED NORTHWARD OF THE\r\nCENTER...DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE HAS ERODED MOST OF THE INNER CORE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND FRONTAL-LIKE FEATURES ARE STARTING TO FORM.\r\nADDITIONALLY...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND NEARBY SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING.  THE ONLY THING\r\nKEEPING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL IS A SMALL AND RAPIDLY DIMINISHING\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION\r\nOF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n65 KT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION WILL NOT BE COMPLETE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. \r\nHOWEVER...IF WHAT LITTLE REMAINS OF THE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES\r\nTO DISSIPATE...TRANSITION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER.  \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION...BAROTROPIC FORCING\r\nAPPEARS TO BE WANING.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THAT FLORENCE IS STARTING TO INTERACT WITH AN UPSTREAM\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPRODUCE BAROCLINIC FORCING AND AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON THE LARGER\r\nSCALE EVEN AS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND WINDS DECAY.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED BY A SYSTEM TO\r\nTHE NORTH BY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nTHE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FLORENCE AND A HIGH CENTERED OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS\r\nALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY ROUGH\r\nAND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS\r\nALONG NEARLY THE ENTIRE ATLANTIC EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 37.2N  62.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 39.4N  60.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 42.7N  57.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 45.7N  53.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 47.6N  48.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 49.5N  33.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 53.0N  17.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":36,"Date":"2006-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n \r\nFLORENCE APPEARS TO BE WELL INTO ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\nSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY\r\nLOCATED OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN CANADA.  AS FLORENCE INTERACTS\r\nWITH THIS FRONT...MOVES OVER COOLER WATER...AND CONTINUES TO DRAW\r\nIN STABLE AIR...IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12\r\nHOURS. \r\n\r\nDESPITE THE LESS IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0902 UTC...DETECTED SOME HURRICANE-\r\nFORCE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE PASS. BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DUE TO INTERACTIONS\r\nWITH A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...AND THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC\r\nSOURCE OF ENERGY...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED AS\r\nFLORENCE PASSES JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT \r\nDAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nFLORENCE IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 035/16. TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nLARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND\r\nDANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THE BAHAMAS FOR ANOTHER FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 38.2N  61.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 40.6N  58.7W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 43.9N  55.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 46.5N  50.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 47.8N  44.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 49.5N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Florence","Adv":37,"Date":"2006-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS QUICKLY BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE ONLY CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER IS A BAND \r\nOF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 100 NM NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THIS BAND MAY ACTUALLY BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH THE\r\nPRE-EXISTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE\r\nNORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS \r\nAND AN EXPERIMENTAL SURFACE ADJUSTED CLOUD DRIFT WIND PRODUCT\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND. \r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT PASSES\r\nSOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/17. FLORENCE HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WAS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA A LITTLE SOONER THAN SHOWN.  \r\n\r\nLARGE NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ROUGH\r\nSURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG MOST OF THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE DAYS.  THE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS\r\nSHOWN IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY DOES NOT FULLY ACCOUNT FOR THIS HUGE\r\nAREA OF HIGH WAVES INDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLORENCE.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 39.3N  59.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 41.8N  56.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 45.0N  52.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 47.2N  46.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 48.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 49.5N  24.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 10 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ESCAPED TODAY FROM THE\r\nNORTHERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER HURRICANE FLORENCE.  AS A RESULT...DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT AND HAS BECOME MORE\r\nINVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED\r\nON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT BASED\r\nON THE 00 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5...AND ON AN OBSERVATION FROM\r\nSHIP MSJX8 OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 27 KT JUST SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  COMPLETELY OPPOSITE TO WHAT FLORENCE HAS BEEN...THIS\r\nDEPRESSION IS A SMALL CYCLONE.  THE CIRCULATION IS PERHAPS 300 NM\r\nWIDE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AND SSMI...AND SEVERAL FORTUITOUS\r\nSHIP OBSERVATIONS HAVE MADE FINDING THE CENTER A LITTLE EASIER THAN\r\nUSUAL FOR A DEPRESSION.  IT HAD BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nHEADING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/5.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY\r\nRATHER WEAK...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS ESSENTIALLY DO NOT KNOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION EXISTS.  THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST A STEERING\r\nPATTERN THAT WOULD TURN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...INTO\r\nTHE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BEHIND BY FLORENCE.  THE\r\nGFS-BASED BAM TRAJECTORIES SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES BY DAY 4 OR 5.  THE GFDL FORECASTS AN IMMEDIATE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT LASTS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL THE\r\nMODEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPATH OF THE BAM MODELS...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY...SINCE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nOTHER THAN THE GFS SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD MEANDER\r\nWITHIN THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THIS IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nFORECAST...AND THE NORTHWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CAN\r\nBE INTERPRETED TO MEAN WE ARE NOT YET SURE IF THIS CYCLONE WILL\r\nRECURVE.\r\n\r\nAS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MANY OF THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS\r\nYEAR...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION IS FAIRLY\r\nCOMPLICATED.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 48 HOURS WITHIN\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS COULD BECOME A\r\nSTRONG TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE TO CONTEND WITH\r\nINCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE A BIT MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IT IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A WEAKER\r\nTROPICAL STORM THAT MIGHT NOT EVEN LAST FIVE DAYS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 20.2N  54.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.3N  55.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 20.7N  56.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 21.4N  57.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 22.2N  59.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 24.5N  61.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 27.0N  62.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BANDING THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nFOLLOWING SUIT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A BIT OF A MYSTERY. THE\r\nLATEST GFDL RUN NOW INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN 48 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SEEMS\r\nSOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE CONSIDERING THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nIN AROUND 36-48 HOURS...AS THE LARGE SCALE MODELS INDICATE.  IN\r\nFACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST... SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARD...IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER EASTERLIES AND IMPROVED\r\nOUTFLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ALL INDICATE A WEAK STEERING CURRENT THAT WOULD EVENTUALLY\r\nTURN THE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE BAM MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE INTO THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAY 4.  THE GFDL AND THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST AN ABRUPT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...THEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON BLEND OF THE\r\nBAMS... THOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 20.5N  55.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 20.7N  55.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 21.3N  57.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 22.1N  58.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 23.1N  59.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 25.5N  61.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 28.0N  62.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 31.0N  62.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THAN\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATED.  THIS REQUIRES SOME ADJUSTMENT TO THE EARLY PART\r\nOF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT OTHERWISE THE TRACK REASONING IS ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME AS BEFORE.  WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nHEAD FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GFDL AND GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER EAST THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE RIGHT AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nHOWEVER THE CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE THIN AT THE MOMENT AND A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THE HIGHEST\r\nUNCONTAMINATED WINDS WERE 25-30 KT.  WE WILL WAIT UNTIL THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM IN A FEW HOURS TO\r\nGET A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC SINCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN ANTICYCLONIC LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SUBSIDENCE...AND IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND\r\nWITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE ON STRENGTHENING...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 21.1N  56.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 21.4N  57.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 22.3N  58.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 23.3N  59.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 24.3N  60.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 26.5N  62.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 29.0N  62.4W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 32.0N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT\r\nWHICH REDUCES TO 38 KT AT THE SURFACE. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GORDON ON THIS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE UPGRADE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB...TAFB AND AFWA.\r\nSINCE THE TIME OF THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FIX THE OVERALL SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH INCREASING BANDING FEATURES AND\r\nEXPANDING OUTFLOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS DIVIDED INTO 2\r\nCAMPS...THE BAMS ON THE LEFT AND THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS AND\r\nCONSENSUS TO THE RIGHT. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nOUT OF RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT IN TURNING THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD\r\nAND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS IS AN\r\nOUTLIER AND TRAPS THE SYSTEM BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST. THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY AND IS IN PART DUE TO\r\nPOOR INITIALIZATION OF THE SYSTEM BY THAT MODEL WHICH ALSO\r\nDISSIPATES GORDON WITHIN 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nGIVEN THE SYSTEM'S INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT AND DECREASING\r\nENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. GIVEN THE MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS AND\r\nINCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. GORDON COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nNOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 21.6N  57.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 22.4N  58.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 23.7N  59.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N  60.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 26.5N  60.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 29.0N  60.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 31.5N  60.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 34.0N  59.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND.\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND WRAPPING\r\nAROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER DEFINED BUT IT IS LIMITED IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KNOTS...A\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 50 KNOTS EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THIS MEASUREMENT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. THE VALIDITY OF THESE VECTORS WILL LIKELY BE\r\nQUESTIONED. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nGORDON MOST LIKELY WILL SPEND ITS LIFETIME OVER WATER. IT IS ALREADY\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AND SOON THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE LEFT\r\nBY HURRICANE FLORENCE. IN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE IS ALREADY TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT\r\nTHREE DAYS GORDON SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 22.1N  57.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  58.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 24.5N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 26.0N  60.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 27.6N  60.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 30.0N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 33.0N  57.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 37.0N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/AGUIRRE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n  \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE\r\nHAVEN'T BEEN ANY GOOD MICROWAVE PASSES RECENTLY. CONTINUITY FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION WOULD PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF A SMALL BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE ASSUMED INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n320/7...ALTHOUGH IS POSSIBLE THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION.  GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID- LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A\r\nPRONOUNCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE\r\nTO ITS NORTHWEST. ANOTHER IMPORTANT FEATURE IS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF GORDON...THAT\r\nIS MOVING WESTWARD. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EVEN THOUGH\r\nFLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OUT...THE WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL\r\nBREAK DOWN THE REMAINING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GORDON\r\nAND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO SLOWLY RECURVE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO... ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE RIGHT\r\nOUTLIER INITIALLY AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MUCH SLOWER INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE WESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER TO THE NORTHEAST ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS. OVERALL THE TRACK IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45...55...AND 55 KT FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 50 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER GORDON IS DIVERGENT...\r\nAND THIS FAVORABLE PATTERN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY\r\nMODELS BOTH BRING GORDON UP TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES AS WELL.  ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING FACTOR\r\nWOULD BE SOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT COULD BE DRIVEN INTO THE\r\nCYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  TOWARD THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF GORDON SHOULD BE DONE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 22.6N  58.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 23.6N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 25.1N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 26.7N  59.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 28.1N  59.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 30.5N  58.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 33.0N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 37.0N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n \r\nA MICROWAVE PASS FROM 0730 UTC...A 1023 WINDSAT PASS AND VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY WERE INSTRUMENTAL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF\r\nGORDON. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA\r\nAVERAGE 50 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nVISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE WHICH IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT AND MAY ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TEMPORARY LEVELING OFF\r\nIN THE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...345/8. GORDON IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A NARROWING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 1000 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nGORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS WILL ALLOW GORDON TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND SLOWLY RECURVE AFTER 48 HOURS. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN AN\r\nOUTLIER...NOW ALSO RECURVES GORDON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nAND NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL WHICH MAKES GORDON A 95 KT\r\nHURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN\r\n24 HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WHICH COULD BE ONE POSSIBLE INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 23.4N  58.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 24.4N  58.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.8N  58.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 27.4N  58.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  58.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 35.0N  54.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 39.0N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SIZE OF GORDON HAS EXPANDED AND THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED\r\nIN APPEARANCE DURING THE DAY WITH OUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE SW QUADRANT. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL 55 KT...WHICH\r\nIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW DUE NORTH...360/6. GORDON REMAINS ALONG \r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nWITH A PRONOUNCED BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE TO ITS NORTH. A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...LOCATED ABOUT 950 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nGORDON IS MOVING WESTWARD BUT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A SHEAR AXIS \r\nWELL TO THE EAST OF GORDON...MAKING IT LESS LIKELY TO HAVE AN \r\nIMPACT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH\r\nTHE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAPTURE A\r\nNORTHWARD-MOVING GORDON BEYOND 72 HOURS AND ALLOW RECURVATURE INTO\r\nTHE WESTERLIES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nUPPER LOW WHICH...AS NOTED ABOVE...IS BECOMING LESS OF AN\r\nINHIBITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...\r\nBUT NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...WHICH STILL MAKES GORDON\r\nA 90 KT HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO RECURVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nENCOUNTERS WESTERLY SHEAR...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 23.7N  58.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 24.6N  58.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  58.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 27.7N  58.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 29.5N  58.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 33.0N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 36.5N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 40.0N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH DEEP CONVECTION \r\nSURROUNDED BY A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE ON CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN MICROWAVE DATA. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE BETWEEN 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES WHILE\r\nOBJECTIVES NUMBERS REACHED 5.4 AROUND 0000 UTC.  THE OBJECTIVE\r\nNUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THEN...BUT STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. GORDON IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN EARLIER TODAY AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THERE SHOULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nTHE SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.    \r\n\r\nGORDON IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nALREADY ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND READY\r\nTO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHESE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY...THEREFORE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE. ONLY THE\r\nUK MODEL ACCELERATES GORDON TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE LAST\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST. GORDON IS NO THREAT TO LAND.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 24.4N  57.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 25.6N  57.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 27.5N  57.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 30.5N  56.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 33.0N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  49.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...THE APPEARANCE OF A RAGGED EYE IN POST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A\r\n0544 UTC CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 63 KT...SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. GORDON HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN\r\nIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF\r\nSLIGHTLY IN ITS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nSHIPS CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 80 KT UNTIL GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING BEGINS...PROBABLY IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...DUE TO\r\nINCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/7...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR\r\nTHE SHORT TERM...AS GORDON MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MOST\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW GORDON SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 2 OR 3 AS\r\nTHE DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH FLORENCE LIFTS OUT.\r\nTHE MOVEMENT OF GORDON BEYOND THAT POINT WILL DEPEND ON THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE IN THE WEEK AND MOVE\r\nINTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GFS SLOWS GORDON AT DAYS 3 AND 4\r\nBEFORE MOVING IT SLOWLY NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nSHOWS A MORE RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5. TO\r\nCOMPLICATE THINGS FURTHER...THE GFDL STALLS GORDON AND SHOWS ALMOST\r\nNO MOTION FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER FROM DAY 3 ONWARD...TRENDING TOWARD THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 25.1N  57.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 26.4N  57.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 28.1N  57.2W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 29.7N  56.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 30.9N  55.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 32.5N  54.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 34.0N  52.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 36.5N  49.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. \r\nDVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 77\r\nKT...AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nINCREASE SINCE THE 1145 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  \r\n\r\nGORDON HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR\r\nTERM...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ONLY TAKE GORDON\r\nTO AROUND 85 KT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES GORDON CONSERVATIVELY\r\nTO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT GORDON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THIS\r\nSEASON'S FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND.\r\nWITH THAT SAID...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nUPWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF COOLER SSTS AND A LESS CONDUCIVE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/8.  GORDON IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED TO THE NORTH BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nFLORENCE TO THE WEST.  A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF GORDON WHICH IS MOST LIKELY THE CAUSE FOR THE\r\nSOMEWHAT SLOW INITIAL MOTION.  THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS WELL\r\nCLUSTERED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE SPEED IS A BIT\r\nUNCERTAIN.  THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nRUN...AND TAKE GORDON NORTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nCLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALONG\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 26.0N  57.9W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 27.4N  57.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 29.2N  56.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 30.8N  55.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 32.1N  54.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 34.0N  52.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  50.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  THE EYE IS CLEAR\r\nAND HAS WARMED TO 14 DEGREES CELSIUS WITH SURROUNDING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE BEING\r\nINFLUENCED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS AIDING IN THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT 3-HOUR\r\nAVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 5.2. SINCE THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD HAMPER FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GORDON IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  FOR THE FIRST 48 TO 72 HOURS...GORDON\r\nWILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT TO SUSTAIN HURRICANE STATUS.  THEREAFTER...COOLER SSTS\r\nAND A MORE HOSTILE LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GORDON TO\r\nWEAKEN AS IT TRANSITIONS TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/10.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED.  GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE GFDL...FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 27.0N  57.5W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 28.5N  57.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 30.2N  55.9W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  54.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 32.5N  53.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 34.0N  52.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 37.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 41.5N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A VERY\r\nDISTINCT EYE. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS AROUND 0000 UTC WERE ABOUT 5.5\r\nWHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ADT...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN IS CURRENTLY GIVING 3-HOUR ESTIMATES OF 6.0.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105\r\nKNOTS...WHICH IS A VALUE IN BETWEEN THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES. THIS MAKES GORDON A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY\r\nEXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS BUT THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT\r\n11 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN A DAY OR\r\nSO CAUSING GORDON TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY DAY FOUR...AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL KICK GORDON OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK\r\nENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 27.8N  57.1W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 29.3N  56.3W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 31.0N  55.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 31.7N  54.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 32.5N  53.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 33.5N  52.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  48.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH GORDON'S EYE REMAINS DISTINCT...IT HAS BECOME SMALLER AND A\r\nLITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 105 KT IS A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB OF 5.5. THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS DIMINISHED\r\nIN THE LAST FEW HOURS...AS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SUGGEST THAT\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF\r\nGORDON IS IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE. THESE TRENDS SUGGEST GORDON MAY\r\nBE PEAKING IN INTENSITY...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS THROUGH DAY 2 AND LEANS\r\nMORE TOWARD THE GFDL AFTER THAT TIME...AS SHIPS SEEMS TO WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE TOO QUICKLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS 030/11 AS GORDON CONTINUES TO ROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT GORDON WILL SLOW\r\nCONSIDERABLY IN THE 2-3 DAY TIME PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE IS LEFT IN\r\nAN AREA OF WEAK FLOW NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nWESTERLIES. THEREAFTER...AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE INTERACTION OF GORDON WITH THESE FEATURES VARIES AMONG\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AS THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE\r\nECMWF SHOW GORDON BEING ABSORBED INTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY\r\nDAY 4 OR 5. CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND UKMET KEEP GORDON\r\nAS A DISTINCT SYSTEM THROUGH THE PERIOD...CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nSTRONGER INITIAL DEPICTION OF GORDON IN THESE MODELS. IF THE FIRST\r\nSCENARIO PLAYS OUT...IT IS UNLIKELY THAT GORDON WOULD UNDERGO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...SINCE IT WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAIN\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE BEFORE ABSORPTION. HOWEVER...IF GORDON REMAINS\r\nINTACT IT WOULD LIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AT\r\nTHIS POINT...IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WITH MUCH CERTAINLY WHICH\r\nOF THESE SCENARIOS IS MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE SYSTEM AND BEGIN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 28.7N  56.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 30.1N  55.6W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 31.4N  54.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 32.3N  53.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 32.8N  53.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 34.5N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 38.0N  46.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n\r\nGORDON REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE ON CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH A DISTINCT EYE ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE AND AN\r\nEYE TEMPERATURE NEAR 16 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO\r\nBE WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT SOUTH-\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPINGE UPON THE HURRICANE.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 102 KT...AND 3-HR\r\nAVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS WERE AROUND 115 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 105 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION IS\r\nGETTING DEEPER...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...GORDON'S INTENSITY\r\nMAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY.  DESPITE THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS THAT GORDON\r\nHAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING THROUGH\r\n5 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO COOLER WATERS...SHEAR...AND A HOSTILE\r\nLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE\r\nMAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nEXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE PULLS OUT AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF\r\nGORDON WEAKENS.  AFTER 72 HOURS....THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND\r\nGFDL ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-\r\nLATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nABOVE MENTIONED MODEL SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 29.5N  55.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 30.7N  54.9W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 31.8N  53.9W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 32.6N  53.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 33.6N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 35.5N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 39.5N  43.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 43.0N  33.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON REMAINS ALMOST UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING.  A 20 N MI WIDE EYE CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING IT.  DESPITE 20 TO 25 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIMPINGING UPON THE HURRICANE...GORDON MAINTAINS MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT.  THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.5 OR 102 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS\r\nEARLIER TODAY AS WELL.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS GORDON TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT THE WEAKENING COULD BE TOO FAST.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE GFDL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH\r\nFIVE DAYS WHICH COULD BE A BIT OVERDONE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE AND COMMENCES A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND THROUGH 4 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE INTENSITY AS\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT AND ANTICIPATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION HAS YET TO HINT AT A DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION.  WITH THAT\r\nSAID...THE FORECAST MOTION OF GORDON IS THE MOST CHALLENGING PART\r\nOF THE FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE ALL ACCELERATE GORDON AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-\r\nLATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE EARLY PERIODS AND IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 30.2N  54.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 31.3N  54.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 32.1N  53.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 32.9N  52.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 33.8N  51.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 37.0N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 40.5N  39.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 43.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. GORDON HAS SLOWED DOWN\r\nSLIGHTLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND\r\nGRADUALLY PICKS UP THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATES IT TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nA LITTLE FASTER AFTER THAT WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...GORDON STILL HAS A\r\nCLASSIC WELL-DEFINED EYE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ONLY SLOW\r\nWEAKENING EXPECTED AS GORDON MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER\r\nAFTER THAT. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON WILL BE GETTING A\r\nSHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...\r\nWHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...POSSIBLY EVEN A STORM SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 30.6N  54.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 31.4N  53.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 32.1N  52.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 32.9N  51.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 34.0N  50.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 37.5N  46.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 41.5N  35.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  21.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GORDON HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...WITH AN\r\nEROSION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND THE EYE BECOMING SMALLER AND LESS DISTINCT. DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 5.0...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 95 KT. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS.\r\nAFTER 2-3 DAYS...THE GFDL AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCEPT THE\r\nNOGAPS...SHOW GORDON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE 1000-500 MB THICKNESS GRADIENT.  ADDITIONALLY...THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN AND UMKET MODELS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL\r\nREMAIN A ROBUST CYCLONE AFTER IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND\r\nPERHAPS EVEN INTENSIFY...AS IT MOVES INTO THE FAVORABLE\r\nRIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS...AND KEEPS THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT AFTER GORDON\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. IN SPITE OF THE MORE EASTERLY INITAL MOTION...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT.  THE MORE\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF\r\nGORDON WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT MOVES EAST FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER\r\nTHE WEEKEND.  BY 72 HOURS...ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS AN ACCELERATION\r\nTO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS GORDON BECOMES EXTRATROIPICAL.  THE\r\nOFFICAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND TRENDS TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 30.9N  53.4W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 31.4N  53.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 32.1N  52.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 33.0N  51.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 34.7N  50.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 38.5N  43.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  32.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 46.0N  19.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AND INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING.  DESPITE THE WEAKENING\r\nTREND...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THE SHEAR. DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 OR 65 KT WHILE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 5.0 OR 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF\r\nGORDON HAS WEAKENED AND GORDON IS NOW IN AN AREA OF VERY LITTLE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS.  GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nAROUND 5 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS.  THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE A STAIR-STEP TO THE LEFT...WITH\r\nWEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE TO THE\r\nRIGHT AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE OVERALL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST IN THE EARLIER PERIODS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS GORDON AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  THE INTENSITY IS\r\nTHEN LEVELED OFF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT\r\nGORDON WILL REMAIN A FAIRLY STRONG CYCLONE AS IT TRANSITIONS TO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED FROM A 0922 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 31.1N  53.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 31.8N  52.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 32.5N  52.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 33.5N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 35.3N  49.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 39.5N  42.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 42.5N  31.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 45.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nDURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF GORDON AND A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS\r\nBECOME EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DESPITE THE\r\nCURRENT APPEARANCE...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE LOWERED A BIT FROM THIS\r\nMORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 80 KT.\r\nGORDON IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS\r\nGORDON BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 6 HOURS OR\r\nSO...EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS FURTHER TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND WEST AND MUCH SLOWER FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAK STEERING FLOW.  A DEEP-\r\nLAYER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nONCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH REACHES GORDON...IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD\r\nOF THE TROUGH.  BY DAY 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED INTO A\r\nLARGE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 31.1N  53.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 31.7N  53.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 32.6N  52.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 33.6N  52.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 35.5N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 41.0N  41.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 43.0N  26.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS BASICALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED. HOWEVER...A WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW NOTED\r\nIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N 60W MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTOWARD GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY NUDGE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HORUS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS\r\nARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AND CAPTURE GORDON\r\nAND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EASTWARD....\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND OCCASIONALLY CLOUD COVERED IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE EYE HAS REMAINED DISTINCT IN\r\nWHAT LIMITED MICROWAVE DATA HAS BEEN AVAILABLE. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WAS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nREMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP GORDON\r\nA LITTLE STRONGER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE AT THIS LOCATION IN\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT ALL PERIODS...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AT 72 AND 96 HOURS DUE TO EXPECTED TRANSITION INTO A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT MERGES WITH\r\nA FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 31.3N  53.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 31.7N  53.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 32.6N  52.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.0N  51.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 36.1N  48.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 40.9N  37.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 42.5N  21.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AROUND THE NOW RAGGED EYE\r\nSEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 3.5 AND 4.0...AND GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 65 KT.  GORDON WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLOWLY OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CROSSES THE 27C ISOTHERM AND MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nGORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 3...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE RECEIVES A\r\nSHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW GORDON\r\nBECOMING ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 4 OR 5. ONLY THE\r\nNOGAPS KEEPS GORDON AS A SEPARATE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE...A SOLUTION THAT SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL ROBUST BOGUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3 AND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONT AT\r\nDAY 4.\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN DRIFTING SLIGHTLY WEST.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING\r\nOFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND THE GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE LEFT OF AND\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AN INCREASE IN\r\nMODEL SPREAD IS SEEN AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nCONU...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 31.3N  53.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 32.0N  53.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 33.2N  52.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 35.1N  51.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 37.3N  48.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE THIS MORNING AND LOOKS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO WHAT IT DID 6 HOURS AGO.  A RAGGED EYE REMAINS PRESENT\r\nAND SURROUNDING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -50 AND -65\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 4.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT. \r\nGORDON SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN THE\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST TO HOLD STEADY DURING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  THIS SOLUTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLIGHT HINT OF A SLOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION HAS BEEN SEEN DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. \r\nIN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE WEAKENED RIDGE WHICH HAS HELPED INHIBIT\r\nGORDON'S FORWARD MOTION SHOULD BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD BE\r\nAPPROACHING GORDON FROM THE WEST.  THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. BY 72 HOURS...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...\r\nAND THEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4 DAYS.  MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL WHICH MAINTAINS GORDON AS A SINGLE ENTITY MOVING AROUND THE\r\nNORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS\r\nWITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A 0856 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 31.3N  53.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 32.1N  53.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 33.6N  52.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 35.5N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.6N  46.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 39.5N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 65 KT AS DOES THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING GORDON IN THE FIRST 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS LONGER...AND LOWER SHEAR THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS A STEADY\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KT UNTIL GORDON REACHES WATERS BELOW 26C DEGREES\r\nAND INCREASING SHEAR.  AT THAT TIME...SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION HAS FINALLY RESUMED AND IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 340/3.  A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN AND\r\nACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-\r\nLAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODEL\r\nTRACKERS MAINTAIN GORDON THROUGH 120 HOURS...ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL\r\nFIELDS INDICATE AN OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE CYCLONE BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 3 DAYS AND ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN FOUR. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 31.7N  54.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 32.6N  53.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 34.3N  52.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.6N  49.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 38.6N  44.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 39.5N  32.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A 16/2351Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THE\r\nNORTHERN EYEWALL WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM THE 3 AGENCIES SUGEGST THAT GORDON IS A BORDERLINE\r\n65-KT HURRICANE...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nDRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD\r\nHELP TO CONTINUE THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS\r\nFORECAST TO CAPTURE GORDON AND TURN THE CYCLONE INTO A SIGNIFICANT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/03. NORTHWARD RIDGING TO THE EAST OF\r\nGORDON NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOULD NUDGE THE CYCLONE\r\nSLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...\r\nAFTER WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nGORDON NORTHEASTWARD BY 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATE THE\r\nCYCLONE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER THAT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH BRINGS\r\nGORDON VERY CLOSE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS AS A 50-KT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GORDON COULD MERGE WITH A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 32.0N  53.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 33.3N  53.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 35.3N  51.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 37.4N  47.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 38.9N  41.7W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 40.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 010/05. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL\r\nGIVE GORDON A KICK TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...PUSHING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND\r\nFURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF GORDON'S\r\nRAGGED EYE...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -80C SEEN IN\r\nPOST-ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 4.0\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nJUSTIFY MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nINTENSITY KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AT 12 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT\r\nIMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...SUGGEST THAT\r\nGORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GORDON\r\nMERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS GORDON PASSING CLOSE TO THE AZORES AS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AND INDICATES MERGER WITH THE\r\nFRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII FORECAST REFLECTS THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WINDS\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE MORE\r\nEASTERLY MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN\r\nGORDON AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 32.6N  53.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 33.8N  52.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 35.9N  49.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 37.8N  45.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 38.7N  39.6W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 40.0N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON REFUSES TO WEAKEN.  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE HURRICANE\r\nWITH AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 77 KT...AND\r\nAFWA WAS 65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UP TO 70 KT...\r\nSINCE BOTH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND OVERALL APPEARANCE ARE\r\nSLIGHTLY IMPROVED.  SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY\r\nDURING THE NEXT OR TWO SINCE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM BOTH SHIPS AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE MAINTAIN GORDON AS A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BEGINS IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE 010/9...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE\r\nDEEP- LAYER TROUGH QUICKLY APPROACHES.  THE FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WELL\r\nCLUSTERED.  A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST IN 24 HOURS IS\r\nEXPECTED...WITH A FASTER MOTION TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT GORDON SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nOBTAIN EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HOURS...AND BECOME\r\nMERGED WITH A FRONT IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 33.6N  53.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 35.2N  51.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 36.9N  48.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 38.6N  43.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 39.5N  37.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 40.0N  22.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF GORDON ONCE AGAIN REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM EARLIER TODAY.  AN EYE FEATURE...DEEP CONVECTION...AND WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED OUTFLOW ARE ALL PRESENT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT...AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 65 KT FROM \r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT\r\nAT 70 KT.  \r\n\r\nGORDON HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED AT 020/12.  IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH TO THE WEST OF GORDON...AND A RIDGE BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO STEER GORDON TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nTHESE TWO FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE GORDON TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST..AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT TWO DAYS NEAR THE AZORES.  BY DAY 3...MOSTLY\r\nALL THE GUIDANCE MERGES THE CYCLONE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AS DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN GORDON AS A\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWLY WEAKENS\r\nGORDON UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 34.6N  52.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 36.3N  50.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 38.0N  46.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  40.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 39.7N  32.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n\r\nAN EYE IS STILL EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT FROM THE VARIOUS\r\nAGENCIES.  GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH SSTS AROUND 26\r\nDEG C.  THIS REGIME SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MORE OR\r\nLESS MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER SOME\r\nWEAKENING COULD OCCUR DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER AS GORDON\r\nBEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...THE COMBINATION OF GORDON AND THE\r\nLARGER CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE LARGER CYCLONE WILL\r\nDOMINATE...AND THEREFORE ABSORB...THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF\r\nGORDON.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALTHOUGH A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER IN VIEW OF THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE ABSORBING\r\nSYSTEM.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL...THAT GORDON WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN EXPECTED HERE.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS..\r\n\r\nTHE HEADING HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 040...AT\r\n12 KT.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATION AS\r\nGORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL...U.K. MET...AND GFS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY USING A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 35.4N  51.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 36.9N  49.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 38.0N  44.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 38.4N  37.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 38.5N  29.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nFAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD TOPS.  DATA-T\r\nNUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED...AND\r\nSUPPORT AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 70 KT.  HOWEVER...WE\r\nWOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE\r\nADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD.  GORDON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW SHEAR AND SSTS AROUND 26C...WHICH SHOULD\r\nBE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nGORDON CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 045/17.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nACCELERATION AS GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND TO THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS.  GORDON IS FORECAST TO BEGIN\r\nINTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nAND EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO\r\nEXACTLY WHEN GORDON WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nFSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nGORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ALSO INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  \r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nAZORES IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT\r\nGORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS\r\nDELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD\r\nBE REQUIRED.  IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE\r\nAZORES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 36.5N  49.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 37.8N  46.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 38.7N  40.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 38.9N  33.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 39.0N  26.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":31,"Date":"2006-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON'S EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS MORNING IN VISIBLE...\r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A COLD RING OF ABOUT\r\n-60C CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A WARM -6C EYE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 75 AND 90 KT FROM TAFB..SAB AND KGWC. \r\nMOREOVER...THE OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES SUGGEST WINDS OF 80 TO 100 KT. \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED UP TO 80 KT.  GORDON HAS JUST\r\nPASSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER...BUT NOT COLD...WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  HIGH LATITUDE\r\nHURRICANES...HOWEVER...DO TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT RESISTANT TO VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  NONETHELESS...IT IS LIKELY THAT GORDON HAS REACHED ITS\r\nSECOND PEAK IN INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN SOME WEAKENING SHORTLY. \r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTIONS ARE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AS\r\nWELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nGORDON IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST 55 DEGREES AT 17 KT...WHICH IS TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A TURN TOWARD A DUE EASTWARD\r\nTRACK IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS AS GORDON BECOMES STEERED BY THE\r\nZONAL WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITHOUT THE SLOWER\r\nUKMET...AND NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ANALYSES FROM THE FSU\r\nCYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL NUMERICAL MODELS\r\nTRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF GORDON...THIS\r\nTRANSITION IS DELAYED TO THE 36 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SPLIT AS TO\r\nWHETHER GORDON WILL REMAIN A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL STORM OR\r\nWHETHER IT WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL STORM\r\nSYSTEM TO ITS NORTH.  GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF GORDON...THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO IS FAVORED WITH ABSORPTION OCCURRING AROUND 60 TO 72\r\nHOURS. \r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nAZORES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT\r\nGORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS\r\nDELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD\r\nBE REQUIRED.  IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE\r\nAZORES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 37.3N  47.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 38.1N  43.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 38.5N  37.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 38.8N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 39.9N  21.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":32,"Date":"2006-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE AND A NEARLY COMPLETE COLD CLOUD RING.  SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS LIKEWISE KEPT AT 80 KT.  GORDON IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND WILL BE OVER 24 C SSTS TOMORROW...THOUGH THE\r\nDESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF COOLING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES\r\nMAY SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE REDUCTION IN SSTS.  VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT ABOUT 20 KT...SHOULD BECOME STRONGER\r\nUNDER AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.  AS SUGGESTED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SHORTLY.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE THE SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nGORDON IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...75 DEGREES AT 19 KT...WHICH\r\nIS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GORDON SHOULD\r\nTRACK TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW\r\nPRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GORDON IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT QUICKLY\r\nACCELERATES AND IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. \r\nHOWEVER...A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NOGAPS AND\r\nUKMET...SUGGEST INSTEAD THAT GORDON WILL RETAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY AS\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NOGAPS...WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE TOO LARGE A VORTEX CARRIED FORWARD IN TIME.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL\r\nNUMERICAL MODELS TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF\r\nGORDON...HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. \r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM WOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nAZORES IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING\r\nOF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED\r\nFOR THE AZORES.  HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED IN THE AZORES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 37.8N  44.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 38.3N  40.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 38.5N  34.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 39.2N  26.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 41.3N  17.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":33,"Date":"2006-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON IS AN IMPRESSIVE HIGH-LATITUDE HURRICANE. IT HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING A MOSTLY SOLID RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE\r\nCENTER... WHILE THE EYE RECENTLY HAS BEEN CONTRACTING. SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT LEAST 77 KT... WHILE IN-HOUSE OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES ARE NEAR 93 KT. A WELL-TIMED HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT\r\nMICROWAVE OVER THE HURRICANE AT 2215 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 85\r\nKT. THUS THE INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 85 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE\r\nABOVE ESTIMATES. THE ONLY FACTOR THAT WOULD SUPPORT THE HURRICANE\r\nMAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY IS COOLING UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...\r\nWHICH WOULD GENERALLY KEEP A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN\r\nNORMAL... AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER... IT DOESN'T\r\nSEEM LIKE GORDON CAN KEEP UP THIS INTENSITY FOR TOO MUCH LONGER\r\nBEFORE INCREASING SHEAR... COOLER SSTS... AND AN APPROACHING COLD\r\nFRONT TAKE THEIR TOLL. ALL OF THESE EFFECTS WILL PROBABLY NOT\r\nWEAKEN GORDON VERY QUICKLY... AND IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE\r\nLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE\r\nAZORES. THEREFORE... A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE\r\nISLANDS. HURRICANES ARE RARE BUT NOT UNPRECEDENTED IN THE AZORES. A\r\nQUICK CHECK OF THE 1851-2005 BEST TRACK DATABASE SHOWS THAT NINE\r\nHURRICANES HAVE IMPACTED THE AZORES DURING THIS TIME... THE MOST\r\nRECENT BEING CHARLEY OF 1992.\r\n \r\nGORDON IS ZIPPING EASTWARD TONIGHT... 085/24.  TRACK MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  THIS INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FAST\r\nZONAL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A COLD FRONT CATCHES\r\nUP TO GORDON AND WIND SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 40 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN GORDON AS A SEPARATE ENTITY FROM THE\r\nONCOMING TROUGH FOR A LITTLE LONGER THAN EARLIER.  THESE MODELS ALSO\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GORDON BECOMING ABSORBED IN THIS TROUGH BY\r\n72 HOURS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 38.0N  41.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 38.2N  37.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 38.3N  30.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 39.5N  22.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 42.0N  13.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":34,"Date":"2006-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/24. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. GORDON IS NORTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLY FLOW. ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PASSING BY GORDON TO THE\r\nNORTH. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING 55W\r\nLONGITUDE SHOULD ENSURE THAT GORDON WILL MAINTAIN ITS RAPID\r\nEASTERLY MOTION. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nAZORES ISLANDS IN 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN AFTERWARD ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN IBERIAN PENINSULA AS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA. THE EYE HAS REMAINED NEARLY CLOUD-FREE AND DISTINCT\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90\r\nKT. GORDON'S FAST FORWARD SPEED IS MINIMIZING ANY ADVERSE EFFECTS\r\nFROM THE 40-50 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM\r\nTHE WEST...SO THE ONLY FACTORS INHIBITING INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE\r\nCOOLER SSTS OF 22C-23C AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT\r\nFROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD SPEED...DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY TO INDUCE ANY RAPID WEAKENING\r\nBEFORE GORDON REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS. THEREFORE...GORDON IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AZORES LATER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 38.1N  38.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 38.3N  33.6W    75 KT...APPROACHING AZORES\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 38.8N  26.1W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 40.8N  17.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 43.6N   8.8W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":35,"Date":"2006-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE IS ONLY A HINT OF AN EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN REMAINS VERY WELL ORGANIZED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT SUCH\r\nHIGH LATITUDE...AND IT IS STILL DETACHED FROM ANY FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. SINCE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM...IT SHOULD BECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS. ALL PHASE DIAGRAMS FROM FSU SUGGEST THAT GORDON SHOULD\r\nBECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SOON. HOWEVER...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO\r\nFORECAST THE PRECISE TIMING OF THIS OCCURRENCE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS\r\nTHAT GORDON IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AZORES AS A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nGORDON IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND IS MOVING EASTWARD\r\nOR 090 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST SO\r\nGORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING GORDON ACROSS THE\r\nAZORES TODAY AND NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN ON THURSDAY AS A STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE ALREADY\r\nABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 38.0N  35.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 38.1N  30.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 39.0N  22.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 41.0N  14.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":36,"Date":"2006-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN AND IN FACT...THERE IS A CLOSED EYEWALL ON THE LATEST AMSU\r\nPASS AT 1728 UTC...AND AN EYE FEATURE ON THE LATEST IR IMAGE.\r\nEVEN THOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN...INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSUPPORT 75 KNOTS. GORDON IS STILL DETACHED FROM THE COLD FRONT TO\r\nTHE NORTH BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nSOON...AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.   \r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH TO ADD TO THE MOTION EXCEPT THAT THE HURRICANE IS\r\nRACING EASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nSTEERED BY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. GORDON IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE ACROSS THE AZORES TONIGHT AS A HURRICANE AND WILL BE NEARING\r\nPORTUGAL AND NORTHWEST SPAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OR BORRASCA...AS THEY CALL IT IN SPAIN.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 37.9N  31.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 38.1N  26.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 39.0N  18.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 42.1N  10.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":37,"Date":"2006-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nBECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MORE RAGGED-LOOKING IN ITS APPEARANCE. \r\nTHE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GORDON SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL IT DEPARTS THE AZORES...HOWEVER\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT BECOME MORE HOSTILE FOR THE\r\nMAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nGORDON WILL BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE POST-GORDON CYCLONE COULD IMPACT\r\nPORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND/OR SPAIN AS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  WITHIN 48 HOURS WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO MERGE WITH A LARGE\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.\r\n\r\nGORDON IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC GYRE...AND THE MOTION CONTINUES NEAR\r\n090/29.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT\r\nGORDON OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL VERSION WILL GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AROUND THE LARGER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 37.7N  28.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N  22.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 40.5N  15.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 44.0N   8.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":38,"Date":"2006-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER 0350Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONG\r\nUPPER WESTERLY MID-LATITUDE FLOW HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO AFFECT THE\r\nVERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE CENTER\r\nDISPLACED AROUND 60 N MI WEST OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nBASED ON DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS OF 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT.  A SURFACE OBSERVATION\r\nWORTHY OF NOTE...AZORES METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE REPORTED A 10-MINUTE\r\nAVERAGE WIND OF 49 KT WITH A GUST OF 71 KT FROM SANTA MARIA AIRPORT.  \r\n\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACES TEMPERATURES AND STABILIZING THERMODYNAMIC\r\nAFFECTS FROM THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS...AND ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONT AND BECOMING A\r\nSTRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 080/30. GORDON IS MOVING WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP WESTERLY FLOW OF A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW LOCATED ABOUT 500 N MI\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF IRELAND. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE ECMWF\r\nMODELS ALL INDICATE THAT GORDON WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nLOW TOWARD THE BRITISH ISLES. POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE IBERIAN\r\nPENINSULA AND THE BRITISH ISLES SHOULD BE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 37.8N  24.2W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 39.3N  19.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 42.7N  13.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":39,"Date":"2006-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS WEAKENED BUT IT IS RETAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IT\r\nSTILL HAS A CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS ALREADY VERY NEAR THE CORE\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND GORDON SHOULD BECOME FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50\r\nKNOTS AND ONLY A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE IT BECOMES\r\nABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nGORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE WAVE. THIS MOTION\r\nWOULD BRING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR NORTHWESTERN SPAIN BUT\r\nBY THEN...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED BY\r\nTHE COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 37.8N  20.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  15.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 45.0N  11.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":40,"Date":"2006-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER NEARLY 10 DAYS TRAVELING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...TENACIOUS\r\nGORDON IS FINALLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS A STRONG COLD FRONT\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION. THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM\r\nWILL CONTINUE RACING ON A GENERAL EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK\r\nUNTIL IT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GORDON.\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 39.2N  16.6W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 42.0N  12.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006\r\n \r\nTHE DISTURBANCE WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO\r\nORGANIZE...AND THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIVE-E.  CLOUD TOPS IN CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER ARE BETWEEN -70C AND -80C...ALTHOUGH THE BANDS ARE STILL\r\nRATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SHIP PFSK REPORTED 23 KT WINDS ABOUT 115\r\nN MI NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 00Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL ANALYSES SHOW THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE WESTERN END OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW COMBINING WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF BUD AND CARLOTTA TO CREATE A LARGE HOLE IN THE RIDGE\r\nFARTHER WEST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nBUILD WESTWARD AND FILL THE HOLE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND\r\nSHOULD THIS OCCUR IT WOULD FORCE THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO STAY NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY FOR FIVE DAYS.  SINCE THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE SAME GENERAL\r\nPATTERN EVOLUTION...THIS LACK OF MOTION IS PUZZLING.  IT COULD BE\r\nRELATED TO THE NOGAPS NOT DEVELOPING THE CYCLONE ENOUGH.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR FIVE DAYS\r\nWITH GRADUAL DECELERATION FROM 13 KT TO 8 KT...AND IT IS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW.  THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NOGAPS\r\nLOOKS LESS FAVORABLE...BUT STILL FORECASTS LIGHT SHEAR.  DESPITE\r\nTHIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS DO NOT FORECAST A STRONG SYSTEM. \r\nSHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PEAK AT 65 KT IN 72 HR...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL TAKES 96 HR TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE.  GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nOBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR 75 KT\r\nIN 72 HR.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY LEVELS OFF AT THAT TIME SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY BE APPROACHING THE EDGE OF THE WARMEST WATER...\r\nESPECIALLY IF IT GOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CYCLONE\r\nCONSOLIDATES IN 24-48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.6N 111.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.8N 113.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 12.9N 116.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 12.9N 117.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 124.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 127.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE...AND LACKS A\r\nCONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. \r\nTHERE ARE BROKEN CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT...BUT THESE\r\nARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR\r\n30 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT INTENSIFIED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY THUS FAR...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE SYSTEM...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY\r\nWARM...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE...ONCE THE\r\nSYSTEM ACQUIRES AN INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE\r\nINTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF OR EVEN DECREASE IN STRENGTH\r\nSINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE NEAR/OVER COOLER WATERS...\r\nPARTICULARLY IF IT MOVES SOMEWHAT NORTH OF MY PROJECTED TRACK. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nAND SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFDL RUN ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS\r\nTHE LATTER MODEL AT DAYS 3-5.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD AROUND 12 KT.  SOME\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SHOWN BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...IN THE VICINITY OF 115-120W.  OTHERWISE A CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE FORTHCOMING.  LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A VERY GOOD HANDLE ON 5-E.  THE U.K.\r\nMODEL ELONGATES THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nIS UNABLE TO TRACK A DISTINCT CENTER WHILE THE NOGAPS SPLITS THE\r\nSYSTEM IN TWO.  ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN A COHERENT STRUCTURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nBUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND DEEP/MEDIUM BAM\r\nPREDICTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 12.4N 111.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.7N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 12.8N 116.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 12.9N 118.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 123.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 13.5N 126.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 17 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND\r\nSYSTEM ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVERALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... AND 33 KT\r\nAND 1005 MB FROM A 17/0903Z UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE. THEREFORE...THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DANIEL. UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS NEARLY SYMMETRICAL AND ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO STILL BE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT. SYMPATHETIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nCONTINUES TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL BETWEEN IT AND THE\r\nREMNANTS OF CARLOTTA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS TYPE OF RIDGING PATTERN TO PERSIST...\r\nWHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME WEAKENING\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AFTER 72 HOURS AS ALLUDED TO IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY DISCUSSION.\r\n\r\nTHE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE...LESS THAN 5 KT...THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS\r\nTYPE OF LOW-SHEAR PATTERN...COUPLED WITH THE CURRENT DUAL OUTFLOW\r\nCHANNEL PATTER... USUALLY WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...YET\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS DANIEL UP 67 KT IN 72 HOURS. IN\r\nCONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL MAKES DANIEL A 100 KT HURRICANE BY THE\r\nSAME TIME. THE SHIPS MODEL DOES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL\r\nHUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 50 PERCENT BY 48 HOURS...BUT\r\nDANIEL IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING ABLE TO MIX OUT DRY AIR\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN PUNCHING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION THE PAST DAY OR\r\nSO. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT A LITTLE LESS THAN THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 12.4N 112.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 12.6N 113.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.6N 115.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.6N 116.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 12.7N 118.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 12.9N 121.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 13.0N 124.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 13.5N 127.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS SHOWS THAT CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED AND BECOME MORE CENTRALIZED ABOUT THE ESTIMATED CENTER.\r\nADDITIONALLY...BANDING FEATURES ARE MORE PRONOUNCED AND COMPRISED\r\nOF DEEPER CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS...AND AN ADT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 41 KT FROM UW CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL WESTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AT\r\n270/09.  THE PRIMARY STEERING FOR DANIEL WILL BE A MIDDLE TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DANIEL WHICH SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 72 HOURS. IN FACT...A\r\nCOUPLE OF THE MODELS SHOW A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN\r\nTHE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME INDICATING A RATHER STRONG RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS AND\r\nIS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE\r\nALLOWING DANIEL TO TURN MORE POLEWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nUPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING.\r\nTHIS ALONG WITH NEGLIGIBLE VERTICAL SHEAR AND A WARM OCEAN SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING. THE GFS DOES SHOW\r\nSLIGHT DRYING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS BEYOND 24 HOURS BUT I\r\nWOULD RATHER SEE THE PRESENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THIS TO BE A\r\nFACTOR. THERE IS SEEMINGLY NO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO RESTRICT\r\nTHIS CYCLONE...AND THIS PHILOSOPHY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WHICH TAKES DANIEL TO A STRONG CAT TWO HURRICANE IN 3\r\nDAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF 70 KT FROM\r\nSHIPS...96 KT FROM THE GFDL...AND 117 KT FROM THE FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH PEAK THE INTENSITY AT OR NEAR 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 12.4N 112.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 12.4N 114.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 12.4N 116.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 12.4N 117.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 12.4N 119.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 12.7N 122.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 13.2N 124.7W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 14.0N 128.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 17 2006\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO IMPROVE THIS EVENING.\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DISPLAY ORGANIZED BANDING FEATURES\r\nAND DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM.  TAFB AND\r\nSAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT OR 3.0/3.0 FROM BOTH AGENCIES.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD TRACK AT 270/10.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AND\r\nPOSSIBLY BE NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHOURS. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nALONG 125W AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD ALLOW DANIEL TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE\r\nLATER PERIODS.  \r\n\r\nBOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS\r\nA BLEND OF SHIPS... GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.  THE FSU\r\nSUPER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE FORECASTING A\r\nCATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE PEAKS AT 75 KT AS A RESULT OF MORE STABLE AIR-MASS ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST PATH OF THE CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 12.3N 114.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 12.3N 115.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 12.3N 117.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 12.3N 118.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 12.4N 120.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 12.8N 123.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 13.5N 126.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 129.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A\r\nWELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BAND THAT WRAPS ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION.  A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE WITH VERY\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS IS ALSO DEVELOPING.  0600 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM SAB...AFWA...AND TAFB ARE 45 KT...45 KT...AND 65 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET...CONSERVATIVELY...AT\r\n55 KT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL QUADRANTS\r\nEXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST.  DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nTHROUGH AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND SHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nMODESTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS DANIEL APPROACHING MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS.  THIS IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...\r\nWELL BELOW THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nGFDL PREDICTION.  WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE.  IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN EYEWALL\r\nSTRUCTURE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY AND BECOME MORE\r\nINTENSE THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST...AROUND 270/10.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nDANIEL...BUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD INDUCE A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE GFS FORECASTS A WESTWARD-MOVING\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION BETWEEN 10N AND 25N...MOVING FROM NEAR\r\n140W TO 145 FROM DAYS 3 TO 5 OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS FEATURE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A GRADUAL RIGHTWARD BEND IN DANIEL'S TRACK\r\nDURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 12.2N 115.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 12.2N 118.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 12.2N 120.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 12.5N 122.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 125.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 13.5N 128.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N 131.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY INTENSIFY\r\nAND IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. 1200 UTC SATELLITE BASED\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND 63 KT FROM UW CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 60 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WHERE AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS APPARENT. ADDITIONALLY...DANIEL\r\nWILL BE LOCATED WITHIN AN EXTREMELY LOW-VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR-ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS.  THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING.  SINCE\r\nFORECASTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS VERY DIFFICULT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A STEADY MARCH TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS\r\nIN 48 HOURS. WHILE THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DEVIATE FAR FROM THE\r\nTRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT 100 KT. IF DANIEL DEVELOPS AN\r\nEYE...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO\r\nCOMMENCE.\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES ALMOST DUE WESTWARD OR 270/10. THE OVERALL FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DANIEL OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHICH\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE ALLOWING A\r\nGRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AT DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5 TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 12.2N 116.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 12.2N 118.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 12.3N 120.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 12.8N 123.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 13.6N 126.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N 133.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DANIEL CONTINUES TO STEADILY\r\nSTRENGTHEN AND A BANDING TYPE EYE FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING.\r\nACCORDINGLY...DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A 70 KT\r\nESTIMATE FROM FROM UW CIMSS ADT. \r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD...ESPECIALLY TO THE\r\nNORTH...VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND DANIEL IS LOCATED OVER\r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ALL OF THESE POSITIVE FACTORS POINT\r\nTO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS EVEN RAPID STRENGTHENING. \r\nSINCE THE LATER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS A STEADY INTENSIFICATION RATE TAKING DANIEL TO\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU\r\nSUPER ENSEMBLE HAS BACKED OFF OF ITS PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS\r\nAND IS NOW IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nSHOULD DANIEL GO ON AND FORM AN EYE LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE.\r\n \r\nDANIEL APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH DURING THE FIRST\r\n24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.  THEREAFTER...THE OVERALL\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS UNCHANGED. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL\r\nBUILDING WESTWARD WITH THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS THEN GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THIS SHOULD KEEP DANIEL ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 2 FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. ONLY THE UKMET KEEPS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 11.9N 117.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 11.9N 119.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 121.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 12.8N 124.4W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 13.7N 127.8W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 18 2006\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CONTINUING ITS INTENSIFICATION WITH TIGHTLY-WOUND\r\nBANDS OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN. AFTER A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS AGO...A SMALL\r\nEYE IS BECOMING MORE EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS\r\nOF 72 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR DANIEL PROVIDING A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SLIGHTLY\r\nABOVE AVERAGE. ALL SIGNS POINT TO AT LEAST A STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL. THEREAFTER...\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF STEADY/SLIGHTLY DECREASINGLY SSTS AND\r\nLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN\r\nANNULAR-TYPE HURRICANE. THIS PATTERN COULD ALLOW DANIEL TO STAY\r\nSTRONGER FOR A LONGER AMOUNT OF TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH KEEP\r\nDANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS MOVING BASICALLY DUE WEST...ABOUT 270/10. LITTLE CHANGE\r\nWAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ITS\r\nENSEMBLES DIVERGE A LITTLE BY MOVING DANIEL ON A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH\r\nALONG ABOUT 130W. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF CLUSTER SHOWS LESS OF A\r\nTROUGH...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK THAN THE\r\nGFS/GFS ENSEMBLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF PREVIOUS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 11.9N 118.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 119.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 12.2N 121.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 12.6N 123.3W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 13.0N 125.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 13.7N 128.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 132.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER SSMIS OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT DANIEL WAS DEVELOPING A\r\nBANDING EYE FEATURE. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A WARM\r\nSPOT...INDICATING POSSIBLE PIN HOLE EYE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE CORE\r\nCONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES\r\nAND THE ODT IS 85 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.  \r\nTHE GFDL AND A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN AN UPPER\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER DANIEL FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWARD...THE UPPER\r\nHIGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE'S TRACK CREATING A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THIS CHANGE\r\nIN THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 265/8. SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND A BIT SLOWER. A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL CAUSE DANIEL TO TRACK\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 11.8N 119.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 11.8N 120.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 12.1N 121.9W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 123.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 12.9N 125.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 13.6N 129.3W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND EXHIBIT EXCELLENT\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME\r\nEVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  LATEST SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES\r\nAND THE CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS CREPT UP TO 80 KT DURING\r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  BECAUSE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME  \r\nBETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE 1200 UTC\r\nSUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION HAS ENDED \r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7.  THIS IS A BIT \r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART\r\nA GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n\r\nWITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DANIEL \r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL BUT\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH \r\nSHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 11.9N 119.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.0N 120.7W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.4N 122.3W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.8N 123.9W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 125.8W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N 129.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 14.8N 133.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY SMALL PINHOLE EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY A MUCH LARGER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. DESPITE THE\r\nAPPEARANCE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. RAW \r\nCIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SINCE 1800 UTC HAVE BEEN MUCH \r\nHIGHER...AROUND T5.5 OR ABOUT 100 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nWILL REMAIN AT 85 KT...A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/7. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nSOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE SYSTEM AND IMPART\r\nA GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN. MODELS HAVE CONTINUE TO SHOW A \r\nSLOWER MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER \r\nAND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE\r\nSMALLER INNER EYEWALL WILL LIKELY COLLAPSE WITH THE LARGER EYE\r\nCLEARING OUT AND BECOMING THE DOMINANT FEATURE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS DANIEL TO\r\nA MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS WHICH\r\nSHOULD START A SLOW WEAKENING TEND. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 12.0N 120.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.1N 121.5W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 122.9W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 12.9N 124.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 13.4N 126.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 19 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT DANIEL HAS\r\nNOT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. WHILE CONVECTION HAS\r\nBECOME STRONGER IN THE OUTER EYEWALL...THE INNER EYEWALL HAS ALSO\r\nBECOME BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nARE A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL BECAUSE OF THE EYEWALL\r\nCYCLE AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INTENSITY IS MORE DIFFICULT TO\r\nASCERTAIN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 95 KT IS BASED ON\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITIES OF 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...A CIMSS\r\nAMSU ESTIMATE OF 101 KT AT 2100 UTC AND ADT ESTIMATES OF T5.7...104\r\nKT...DURING THE PAST THREE HOURS.  64 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nINCREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGER EYEWALL FORMATION.  \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TONIGHT GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. OUR BEST GUESS IS THAT THE INNER\r\nEYEWALL WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.  FORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES BELOW 28C ALSO SUGGEST THAN THE HURRICANE COULD BECOME\r\nAN ANNULAR-TYPE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS LEAVES OPEN\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING HURRICANE THAN\r\nGUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN HIGHER\r\nTHAN GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS UNTIL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE AND SSTS QUICKLY DECREASE.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT DANIEL HAS FINALLY HALTED ANY SOUTHWARD MOTION WITH\r\nMORE OF A WESTWARD MOTION...275/7. TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED\r\nAROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE THE\r\nGUIDANCE DIVERGES INTO BASICALLY 3 CAMPS. THIS SPLIT APPEARS TO BE\r\nDUE TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N124W. THE GFDL\r\nTAKES THIS LOW WESTWARD AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nDANIEL ENOUGH TO ALLOW RECURVATURE EAST OF 130W. THE GFS/GFS\r\nENSEMBLES MOVE THE FEATURE FARTHER WEST BUT STILL ALLOW MORE\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE\r\nFASTEST SOLUTIONS ARE PROVIDED BY THE UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS WHICH MOVE\r\nTHE LOW OUT OF THE PICTURE QUICKLY AND KEEPS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING\r\nRELATIVELY FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. WE ARE GOING TO RELY ON\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS HAVING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TROUGH THAN THE\r\nGFDL AND STAY BETWEEN THE GFS CLUSTER AND THE EUROPEAN CLUSTER...TO\r\nTHE WEST OF CONU AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 12.0N 121.0W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 12.2N 122.1W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 12.7N 123.6W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 13.2N 125.1W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 13.8N 126.9W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N 130.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n\r\nSHORT-WAVE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS AN\r\nEXCELLENT SSMIS OVERPASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC...INDICATE DANIEL'S \r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS NOW COMPLETE.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM\r\nTHE AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES.  BASED UPON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT AND DANIEL IS NOW A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...280/8. \r\nDANIEL IS FINALLY GAINING A BIT OF LATITUDE WHILE STEERED BY A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME\r\nMORE CLUSTERED IN THE LATTER PERIODS AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nCYCLE...WITH THE SOLUTION LEANING TOWARD A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nTHROUGH FIVE DAYS.  SINCE THIS SOLUTION WAS FOLLOWED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE\r\nWITH LITTLE CHANGE IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. \r\n\r\nTHE CHALLENGE WITH DANIEL LIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  BOTH THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT 100 KT.\r\nHOWEVER DUE TO THE RECENT COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 115 KT IS FORECAST. \r\nADDITIONALLY...A WARM OCEAN AND A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ARE\r\nANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN\r\nDANIEL AS A STRONG HURRICANE. THEREAFTER...COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 5 DAYS. \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 12.2N 121.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 12.4N 123.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 13.0N 124.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 13.5N 126.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 14.0N 128.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 131.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 134.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 137.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER SYMMETRIC ANNULAR-\r\nTYPE HURRICANE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE ABOUT 25-30 NM IN \r\nDIAMETER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM\r\nAFWA AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. RECENT RAW OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND CIMSS ARE BETWEEN T6.0 AND 6.5...115 TO 127 KT. \r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  THIS COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE IF THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE CORRECT.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN GAINING SOME LATITUDE AND APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nTURNED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n285/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND DANIEL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GFDL TURNS THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD...AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET KEEP ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF HURRICANE TO\r\nMAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND DISCOUNTS THE GFDL SOLUTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CAPS THE HURRICANE AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY.  IT\r\nIS ASSUMED THAT DANIEL WILL STRENGTHEN FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH.  THEREAFTER...SSTS WILL\r\nGRADUALLY COOL AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS...SO A GRADUALLY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  DUE TO DANIEL'S\r\nANNULAR APPEARANCE IT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES.  HOWEVER...AFTER 72 HOURS DANIEL SHOULD BE TRAVERSING\r\nOVER SUB 26 DEGREE WATER AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BE A BIT FASTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 12.5N 122.6W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.3N 125.1W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 13.8N 126.7W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 128.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 15.3N 131.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 137.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DANIEL HAS BECOME A \r\nVERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nDETECTED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH A 25-30 NM WIDE EYE. \r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT \r\nAND WARMED...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO\r\nINCREASE TO 115 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KT...MAKING DANIEL A POWERFUL CATEGORY\r\nFOUR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT DANIEL\r\nSHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY VERY SOON.  THE OFFICIAL \r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS. \r\nIT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN THAN\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES GIVEN ITS ANNULAR APPEARANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nDANIEL WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE...AS SHEAR IS FORECAST \r\nTO INCREASE AND THE SSTS GRADUALLY COOL. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS \r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...SOME SPREAD IS SEEN IN THE TRACK MODELS AS THE GFDL\r\nCONTINUES TO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...\r\nNOGAPS...AND GFS CONTINUE DANIEL ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.\r\nTHE CURRENT TRACK MAINTAINS THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AND IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\n\r\nAN EXCELLENT AND VERY IMPRESSIVE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1356 UTC HELPED\r\nTO DEFINE THE WIND RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 12.7N 123.4W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 13.1N 124.6W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 13.6N 126.1W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 14.1N 127.9W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 14.6N 129.6W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 15.5N 133.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 20 2006\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE WELL-DEFINED EYE/EYEWALL WITH\r\nOUTER BANDING FEATURES.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 115 KT...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR AVERAGE RAW\r\nADT FROM UW/CIMSS IS T6.6...OR 130 KT. A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES\r\nIS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 120 KT. THE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN REMAINS STRONG. WITH CONTINUED LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH NO WELL-DEFINED OUTER EYEWALLS\r\nAPPARENT...A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 24-36\r\nHOURS DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL DECAY\r\nIS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9.  DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND SO LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE HEADING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY\r\n96 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN\r\nUPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ALASKA...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nSLOWS AND BENDS NORTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 13.1N 124.3W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.6N 125.6W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N 127.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 15.0N 130.8W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N 134.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 136.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 138.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n \r\nSHORTLY AFTER THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE...A TRMM PASS REVEALED THAT\r\nDANIEL WAS UNDERGOING ANOTHER CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.\r\nBY 0440 UTC...A SSMI PASS INDICATED THAT THE OUTER EYEWALL HAD\r\nBECOME PREDOMINANT.  REGARDLESS...DANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE AS DISPLAYED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n115 KT.  DUE TO THE EYEWALL CYCLE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 115 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS THIS VALUE FOR 12\r\nHOURS IN THE EVENT THE HURRICANE TRIES TO MAKE ANOTHER COME BACK\r\nDURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS COOLER WATERS WHICH\r\nSHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.  THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE PAST 12-HOUR MOTION IS 285/9.  IT APPEARS THAT THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NUDGED DANIEL A BIT MORE TO THE WEST THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS 12-18 HOUR TREND.  THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER AND\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE TRACK OF\r\nDANIEL WILL DEPEND UPON THE STRENGTH OF AN UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nDIGGING SOUTH OF ALASKA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nTROUGH. IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SLOWS THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD IN DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nBASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 13.2N 125.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 13.6N 126.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 130.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 15.0N 132.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 135.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 137.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n\r\nDANIEL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  THE EYE HAS EXPANDED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW\r\nABOUT 30-35 NM IN DIAMETER.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES REMAIN 115 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT DANIEL WILL\r\nSOON BEGIN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT\r\nFORECAST AS MUCH NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND\r\nTHE HURRICANE MAY BE SLOWER TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THEREAFTER... DANIEL WILL BE ENCOUNTERING\r\nCOOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DANIEL IS MOVING SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER AND WESTWARD THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...A LONGER 12-18 HOUR\r\nAVERAGE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/10.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nCLUSTERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nHOURS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN\r\nTHE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD SLOW THE CYCLONE AND TURN IT MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE NOGAPS IS MUCH FASTER THAN ALL THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 13.4N 126.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.7N 127.7W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.2N 129.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.6N 131.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 133.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N 139.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n\r\nDESPITE FORECASTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN SLOWLY WEAKENING...\r\nTENACIOUS DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nDEPICT A VERY LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY SYMMETRIC\r\nRING OF DEEP CONVECTION...VERY INDICATIVE OF AN ANNULAR TYPE\r\nHURRICANE.  EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE SLIGHTLY WARMED\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS... THE EYE HAS ALSO CLEARED AND\r\nWARMED... WHICH HAS PRODUCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 115 KT FROM AFWA. OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE\r\nBETWEEN T6.3 AND 6.7 OR ABOUT 125 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 125 KT. \r\n \r\nALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DANIEL SHOULD SOON\r\nBEGIN TO WEAKEN.  SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW LITTLE STRONGER THAN\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nACCORDINGLY.  DANIEL'S WEAKENING SHOULD BE GRADUAL DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS ONLY COOL\r\nSLIGHTLY. LATER IN THE FORECAST...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER\r\nMUCH COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 280/10.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHREE DAYS...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A DIGGING\r\nTROUGH PRODUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 13.5N 127.4W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.8N 128.9W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.2N 130.7W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.6N 132.3W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N 133.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 138.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N 140.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING AGAIN...AND DANIEL CURRENTLY IS\r\nSURROUNDED BY A SOLID EYEWALL RING OF -70C OR COLDER TOPS.  EYE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE ALSO WARMING AND THE EYE...NOW ABOUT 25 NM\r\nACROSS...HAS BEEN SHRINKING.  IN ADDITION...DANIEL IS PRESENTLY\r\nMOVING OVER A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN SST.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB WERE 6.5...127 KT...AT 00Z...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HR MEAN RAW\r\nT-NUMBER FROM THE UW/CIMSS ADT WAS T6.7...132 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A RECENT AMSU\r\nPASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND SO\r\nLITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO.  A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHEN SUB-26C\r\nSSTS ARE REACHED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  THERE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR DANIEL TO CONTINUE\r\nJUST NORTH OF WEST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN HOW THE\r\nRIDGE RESPONDS TO AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 155W.  THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH HAS HAD A RIGHT BIAS WITH DANIEL FOR SOME\r\nTIME...CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE\r\nUKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE RELATIVELY INTACT AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST\r\nOUTLIER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 13.6N 128.5W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.9N 130.0W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.3N 131.8W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.8N 133.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 15.2N 134.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N 136.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS REMAINED A REMARKABLE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE FOR 36\r\nHOURS...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -70C OR COLDER\r\nARE FOUND ACROSS THE EYEWALL RING...AND THE 25NM DIAMETER EYE HAS\r\nWARMED TO NEAR 19C.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES WERE 6.5...127 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 130 KT...WITH DANIEL FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY\r\nFOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/10 AS A RESULT OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS RUN THROUGH 48 HOURS AS A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION AS\r\nWELL AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER\r\n72 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE DANIEL ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY AT 150W.  BOTH\r\nTHE GFDL AND UKMET CONTINUE TO LIE ON EITHER END OF THE SPECTRUM...\r\nWITH THE GFDL BEING A RIGHT OUTLIER TO THE NORTH AND THE UKMET A\r\nLEFT OUTLIER TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A\r\nMORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS...BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...SO DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER WARM WATERS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS.  SINCE DANIEL IS CLASSIFIED AS AN ANNULAR\r\nHURRICANE...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR MORE SLOWLY UNTIL THE HURRICANE\r\nREACHES WATERS BELOW 25C.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36 HR AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 96 HR.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 13.8N 129.7W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.1N 131.3W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 14.5N 133.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.9N 134.8W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.2N 136.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 139.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 142.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n \r\nDANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE CURRENT\r\nSUBJECTIVE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 132 KT. THEREFORE\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL REMAIN 130 KT. \r\n \r\nDUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF THE HURRICANE...DANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 280/11. THE\r\n12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT WESTWARD AND\r\nFASTER. THE GFDL MODEL WHICH HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT TURNS THE\r\nHURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER AS A TROUGH DIGS TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nDANIEL. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL 120-HOUR\r\nFORECAST POSITION DID SHIFT WESTWARD ABOUT 300 N MI FROM THE\r\nEARLIER GUIDANCE. THE GFS... NOGAPS... AND UKMET SLOW THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED TO ABOUT 6 KT AS DANIEL MOVES INTO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE...BUT STILL KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS FASTER\r\nAND SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY AFTER\r\n48 HOURS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES... ADDITIONAL WESTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...\r\nDANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER. AS SUCH...THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH USES THE PREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK THAT WAS OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 13.9N 130.8W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.2N 132.5W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.6N 134.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.1N 136.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.6N 138.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 140.2W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 142.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE. \r\nHOWEVER...DUE TO DVORAK INITIAL WEAKENING CONSTRAINTS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN 127 KT. THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT AND IT APPEARS THAT \r\nDANIEL HAS FINALLY STARTED ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED SLOW WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nA STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY \r\nNEAR 28N139W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE HURRICANE WEST \r\nTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO DECELERATE. 18Z\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD SHIFT. ONCE\r\nAGAIN THE GFDL SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS\r\nAND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND INDEED...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT OVERALL THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THE OUTLIER IS THE UKMET...\r\nWHICH IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE. THE UKMET CANNOT BE TOTALLY DISCOUNTED AS IT HAS BEEN\r\nPERFORMING WELL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96\r\nAND 120 HOURS. \r\n\r\nDANIEL IS NOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER FOR A BIT LONGER\r\nAND THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS. BECAUSE OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD...DANIEL WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER 25C WATER FOR MUCH\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE AND DOES NOT INDICATE AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY...BASED ON A 1445 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 14.0N 131.9W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.3N 133.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.8N 135.4W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.3N 137.4W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.8N 139.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N 141.2W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N 143.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A LESS IMPRESSIVE EYE\r\nFEATURE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...RAGGED AND NOT QUITE AS WARM.\r\nHOWEVER...EYEWALL TEMPERATURES DECREASED ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE\r\nDVORAK FINAL T AND UW/CIMSS ADT NUMBERS TO 127 KT. BASED ON THE\r\nDVORAK NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 125 KT. THIS\r\nMAY BE A SHORT TERM TREND SINCE THE LAST FEW IMAGES INDICATE SOME\r\nWARMING OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DANIEL\r\nSHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE SSTS\r\nBEGIN TO DROP OFF SOME...TO AROUND 25C. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nCOOLER THAN 24C ARE NOT EXPECTED SO ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nFORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  DANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG\r\nMID-TO-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTO REMAIN WITHIN THE DEEP WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A DIFFERENCE IN HOW THE\r\nMODELS HANDLE TWO POSSIBLE KEY FEATURES. THE NOGAPS/GFDL/GFS AND\r\nTHE ECMWF ALL INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WITHIN THE\r\nRIDGE NEAR 140W IN 48 HOURS CREATED BY A COMBINATION OF TWO\r\nSYNOPTIC FEATURES...A RETROGRADING MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG\r\n130W AND A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM ALONG 154W...APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST. THE MODELS CONSEQUENTLY SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED AS DANIEL MOVES INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE. THE\r\nUKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...DISSIPATES THE TROUGH ALONG 130W AND\r\nSHOWS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST...PROLONGING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW...WHICH\r\nPLACES DANIEL JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN 5 DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE WILL\r\nOCCUR...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nSTILL FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 14.4N 133.2W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.8N 134.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.4N 136.4W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 138.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.3N 139.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 141.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 144.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 20.0N 148.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AND THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE. IT WOULD\r\nAPPEAR THAT DANIEL IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER\r\nWATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 115 KT WHICH IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN 102 KT FROM SAB AND 127 KT FROM TAFB.  THREE-\r\nHOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES HAVE ALSO BEEN STEADY AT 115 KT.  BEING AT\r\nOR VERY NEAR THE 26C ISOTHERM...DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY\r\nALSO BEGIN CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME\r\nFRAME. STILL...DANIEL DISPLAYS CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR\r\nHURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AT A SLOWER\r\nRATE THAN USUAL GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.\r\nTHIS FORECAST IS ALSO HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH STUDIES\r\nHAVE SHOWN WEAKENS CYCLONES TOO QUICKLY IN THESE SITUATIONS.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RESULTING IN A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 280/12. THIS OVERALL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MOST\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS DEVELOPING\r\nWITHIN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 135W-140W. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nRESULT IN A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO\r\nTHE WEAKNESS.  AS WOULD BE EXPECTED IN LIGHT STEERING FLOW\r\nCONDITIONS...DYNAMICAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE GFS AND GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING DANIEL BECOMING...TEMPORARILY..NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY AT 48 HOURS WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nALONG AT A STEADY CLIP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BY SHOWING DANIEL SLOWING AS\r\nIT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS WITHIN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 36 AND 48\r\nHOURS. AS DANIEL BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW DURING THE LATER\r\nPARTS OF THE FORECAST...THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nDOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO SPEED UP AGAIN AND TURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 14.7N 134.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.0N 135.9W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N 137.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 139.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.4N 140.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.2N 142.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 145.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 150.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n \r\nDANIEL REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. DESPITE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS....CLOUDS TOPS\r\nHAVE COOLED ONCE AGAIN AND THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. A\r\nBLEND OF SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS AN \r\nAVERAGE OF 115 KT...WHILE UW-CIMSS THREE-HOURLY AVERAGE RAW ADT\r\nESTIMATES ARE T6.3 ABOUT 122 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 115 KT. \r\n    \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN FORECAST TO SOON SLOW DOWN...\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES \r\nTO BE STEERED BY A STRONG MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTH...WHICH MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO WEAKEN. \r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HOURS EXIST\r\nAS A RESULT OF A RATHER LARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS.\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND GFS SIGNIFICANTLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT\r\n24-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS HAVE VASTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. \r\nTHE GFS SLOWS THE SPEED OF DANIEL TO 5 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN 2 KT\r\nOR LESS BETWEEN 36 AND 96 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL TURNS DANIEL\r\nNORTHWARD JUST WEST OF 140W.  IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nKEEPS A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nWHICH KEEPS DANIEL ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  SINCE IT\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL\r\nSOLUTIONS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALTHOUGH A BIT SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE UKMET BUT IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE NOGAPS AND GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 25C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN MOVE OVER ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS AND THEN INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS DANIEL SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS \r\n4 AND 5. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAPPEARS TO BE RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATE OF THE SHEAR SINCE BOTH\r\nIT AND THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DANIEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nINTO A LIGHT WIND REGIME THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BETWEEN SEVERAL\r\nSMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. LOWER SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS COMBINED WITH SSTS NEAR 25C MAY RESULT IN DANIEL NOT\r\nWEAKENING AS MUCH AS CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAND BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 14.9N 135.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.4N 137.3W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.3N 140.4W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.8N 141.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.8N 144.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...HOWEVER\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY WARMING.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE 102 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 105 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOWS NO SIGN OF SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED AS SOME OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n285/13. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE\r\nTHE RIGHT- AND LEFT-MOST MODELS...RESPECTIVELY. THE GFS WEAKENS\r\nDANIEL FAR TOO RAPIDLY AND THEN STALLS THE REMNANTS NEAR 140W IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS. THIS EVOLUTION SEEMS UNREALISTIC. THE GFDL HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.\r\nTHE UKMET AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO FORECAST MORE RIDGING AND KEEPS\r\nTHE HURRICANE ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nSOLUTIONS AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS.\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IS MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nLIGHT THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5....THE SHIPS MODEL IS\r\nFORECASTING SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH MAY BE UNREPRESENTATIVE DUE\r\nTO THE LARGE SAMPLING RADIUS USED BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CALCULATE\r\nSHEAR.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS WEAKENING\r\nTHAN SHIPS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 15.3N 137.1W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.7N 138.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.2N 140.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.7N 141.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N 143.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N 149.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DANIEL HAS DECAYED CONSIDERABLY OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE FILLING IN AND THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nWARMING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF\r\nTHE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS...5.0/5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE\r\nWIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN BROUGHT IN BASED ON THE MOST RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE.  DANIEL\r\nREMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  OTHER POTENTIAL PLAYERS\r\nIN THE ENVIRONMENT INCLUDE A MID-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH ABOUT 500 NM\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HANDLING OF THESE FEATURES...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nFORMER TWO.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF INITIALIZE THE LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF DANIEL AS A VERY STRONG FEATURE...AND COUPLED WITH A\r\nMORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BRING DANIEL TO A\r\nDEAD STOP WITHIN 24 HOURS RIGHT AROUND 140W.  THEY THEN TAKE DANIEL\r\nWESTWARD AS A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS MAINTAIN A STRONGER RIDGE AND SHOW A MUCH WEAKER FEATURE TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF DANIEL.  THIS RESULTS A MORE OR LESS CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND A LITTLE FASTER TO BE\r\nMORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS.  TO MY EYE...THE\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET/NOGAPS\r\nINITIALIZATION.  FURTHERMORE...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE\r\nOUTPERFORMED THE COMPETITION BY A WIDE MARGIN FOR DANIEL SO FAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\nDANIEL IS ALREADY OVER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 25C...BUT THEY WON'T BE\r\nGETTING MUCH COOLER IN THE DAYS AHEAD.  HOWEVER...DANIEL WILL BE\r\nINCREASINGLY INGESTING STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AND SO A CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES ADVANCING WESTWARD WITH DANIEL...AND THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS 200 MB FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SHEAR COULD REMAIN\r\nRELATIVELY LOW THOUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS DANIEL APPROACHES\r\nTHE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIN FIVE DAYS.  \r\n\r\nIF DANIEL FOLLOWS THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER WOULD ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CYCLONE WITH\r\nTHE 15Z ADVISORY PACKAGE TOMORROW MORNING. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 15.8N 138.7W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.3N 140.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N 142.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 143.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 145.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N 148.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N 157.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP052006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052006\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006\r\n\r\nTHE EYE DISAPPEARED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 0100 UTC. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A SYMMETRICAL PRESENTATION WITH\r\nFAIRLY COLD CENTRAL CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 77 TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT.  \r\n\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF DANIEL DO NOT\r\nCHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND HOVER AROUND 25 DEG\r\nC...ALTHOUGH THE WATERS DO WARM A LITTLE NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\nHOWEVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS AND LOWER MID-TROPOSPHERIC HUMIDITIES OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  ALSO...THE EVOLUTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR ON DANIEL IS\r\nAN IMPORTANT FACTOR.  CURRENTLY...UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND WEAK\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL ARE SPREADING\r\nWESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE...BUT THERE IS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST\r\nINDICATES THAT...OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE AND\r\nASSOCIATED EASTERLIES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD IN TANDEM\r\nWITH DANIEL AND THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE DIFFICULTY IN ACCURATELY\r\nFORECASTING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROPICAL FLOWS.  HOWEVER IF THE GFS\r\nSCENARIO WERE TO VERIFY...VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD REMAIN LOW AND THE\r\nMAIN FACTORS THAT WOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OF DANIEL WILL BE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE\r\nTHE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DANIEL COULD STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...285/13.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS GENERALLY CALL FOR A SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GFS SHOWS\r\nDANIEL MAKING LITTLE WESTWARD PROGRESS AFTER CROSSING 140W...AND\r\nESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 4-5 DAYS.  THIS SOLUTION\r\nCANNOT BE CONSIDERED REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH IT IS LIKELY\r\nTHAT DANIEL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nFLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF 30N150W MIGHT BE A FACTOR IN THE FUTURE PATH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS FEATURE COULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION A FEW DAYS FROM NOW.  THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ENOUGH OF\r\nA RIDGE...ALBEIT A NARROW ONE...WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN THE LOW AND\r\nDANIEL SO THE TRACK WILL CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE GUNA CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDANIEL HAS ALMOST REACHED 140W LONGITUDE...AND IT SHOULD MOVE INTO\r\nTHE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE BASIN BY 1200 UTC TODAY.  THEREFORE\r\nTHE NEXT...1500 UTC...ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.  FORECAST/ADVISORIES WILL BE\r\nISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA21 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nHNLTCMCP1.  PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nWTPA31 PHFO AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HNLTCPCP1.  TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO AND UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER HNLTCDCP1.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 16.1N 139.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 141.2W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 142.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.3N 144.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 146.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 154.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 158.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AND THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE EAST THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS.\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...SO A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nINDICATED FOR A DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. BOTH ECMWF AND THE GFDL HAVE A MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFS SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO OPTIONS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 12.1N 103.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.3N 103.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.0N 104.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 15.0N 107.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR. DESPITE THE WARM OCEAN AND THE EXPECTED RELAXATION OF THE\r\nSHEAR...GUIDANCE IN GENERAL ONLY SHOWS A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...  \r\nAND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. THIS\r\nGENERAL SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE CONSORTIUM OF THE GFDL-NOGAPS-ECMWF MODELS BASED ON THE\r\nFACT THAT THE GFS IS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 12.7N 103.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.3N 103.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 105.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 108.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 21 2006\r\n \r\nTHE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE EVENING SHOW THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SMALL BUT INTENSE AREA OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS.  CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE SEEN RAPIDLY MOVING FROM\r\nNORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST IN THE CYCLONE'S ENVIRONMENT... A SIGN OF\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK ESTIMATES DO SUPPORT A SMALL\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO THE CLOSENESS OF THE CENTER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 30 KT.\r\n \r\nCOMPUTER MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SHIPS... OFF THE GFS FIELDS... SHOWS A\r\nLESSENING OF THE SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND CONSQUENTLY BRINGS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 DAYS.  THE UKMET ALSO\r\nSHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING IN A DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER... THE GFDL HAS\r\nA MORE PESSIMISTIC VIEW...WITH THE CYCLONE BARELY REACHING STORM\r\nINTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS ALSO KEEPS THE SHEARING\r\nCONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ON\r\nHOW QUICKLY THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nSHOWN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nUSES A BLEND OF THE GFDL/SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE PAST 6-12 HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ABOUT\r\n340/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE A\r\nLITTLE WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BUTTS UP AGAINST A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO. THE FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS... WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND A REASONABLE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST FIELDS.\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...I AM HESITANT TO SHOW ANY TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH...LIKE THE GFDL SHOWS...GIVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS' FORECAST OF\r\nSTRONG RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. IT IS ALSO RATHER\r\nRARE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES TO AFFECT BAJA CALIFORNIA IN JULY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 13.4N 103.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.1N 104.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.4N 105.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.3N 107.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.3N 108.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nHAS DEVELOPED NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS NEAR -85C.  WHILE A SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0232Z SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS STILL SHEARED...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nNOW 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nEMILIA WITH 35-KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/6.  LARGE-SCALE MODEL\r\nANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT EMILIA IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  DUE TO THIS...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nCALLS FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE\r\nGFS...WHICH TURNS EMILIA MORE WESTWARD AND IS THE LEFT OUTLIER OF\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE THE GFS\r\nSOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT EMILIA\r\nIS UNDER 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD AT\r\nLEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS...WHICH IF CORRECT SHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nGFDL MODEL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO PEAK AT 50 KT IN 48 HR...WHILE THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO JUST UNDER\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES BY 120 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 13.8N 104.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.6N 104.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 106.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.7N 109.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 19.5N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS EXPERIENCED SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR WHICH HAD DISPLACED THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT HAS MADE A COMEBACK DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND\r\nSEVERAL NARROW CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. GIVEN THE RECENT AND EXPECTED CONVECTIVE\r\nREDEVELOPMENT TREND...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT ASSUMING\r\nTHAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nUSING A 12-HOUR TREND...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/12. THE ACTUAL\r\nPAST 6-HOUR MOTION HAS BEEN CLOSER TO 15 KT DUE TO EMILIA HAVING\r\nLOST SOME VERTICAL EXTENT WHEN THE CONVECTION BRIEFLY WEAKENED.\r\nHOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5\r\nKT BY 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A\r\nDEEPER VORTEX TO REDEVELOP. THIS SHOULD CAUSE EMILIA TO BE STEERED\r\nMORE WESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO. THE BIG\r\nCONCERN IS EXACTLY WHEN EMILIA WILL BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nCYCLONE. IF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS...THEN A MORE SHALLOW STORM COULD SLIDE TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEST-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICAN COAST... POSSIBLY BRINGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THAT AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL TO THE\r\nRIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS ALONG THE RIGHT\r\nSIDE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AFTER\r\n24 HOURS WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER\r\n...LIGHT-MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY 300 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nUNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 200 MB OUTFLOW PATTERN...SO ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LOWER\r\nGFDL FORECAST AND THE HIGHER SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE 300 MB WIND FLOW REMAINS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED...\r\nTHEN EMILIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. THE SIZE OF THE\r\nWIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK SOMEWHAT SINCE EMILIA HAS NOT YET\r\nINTENSIFIED AND BECOME AS ORGANIZED AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 15.3N 104.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.4N 105.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.3N 108.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.9N 109.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 20.4N 111.4W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N 113.8W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nDIRECTION... ALL THE WHILE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40\r\nKT USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 TO 45 KT\r\nFROM THE TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/11. THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED TIGHT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED NOW WITH CONVECTION AND\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS FROM THE NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS MADE\r\nPLACEMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION A LITTLE DIFFICULT. HOWEVER...ALL\r\nOF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EMILIA SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO BE INFLUENCED BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST\r\nACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWEST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nINDICATE A PREMATURE SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nFROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH IS LIKELY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.\r\nTHE ONLY MODELS THAT DO NOT INDICATE THAT SHARP OF AN INITIAL TURN\r\nARE THE INTERPOLATED UKMET...STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL P91E...AND\r\nCLIPER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GUNS...\r\nGUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTERPOLATED\r\nUKMET MODEL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT P91E AND CLIPER ARE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK AND BRING EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nEMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS IN\r\n12-18 HOURS. THIS FAVORABLE WIND REGIME COUPLED WITH WARM SSTS\r\nEXCEEDING 28C SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST AN AVERAGE RATE OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER IN INTENSITY.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL INNER CORE WIND FIELD\r\nPREVIOUSLY NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...EMILIA COULD EXPERIENCE A\r\nPERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND BE A HURRICANE IN 24-30 HOURS\r\nAS IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND THE INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\n... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 16.5N 104.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.8N 105.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.2N 106.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.3N 108.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 110.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 22.3N 112.6W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 22 2006\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO CONFIDENTLY LOCATE THE CENTER OF EMILIA THIS\r\nEVENING...BUT I BELIEVE IT TO BE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE NORTHEAST\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...A POSITION ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  TRMM AND SSMI PASSES WITHIN\r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS DO NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRUCTURE IN THE LOW\r\nCLOUD LINES AS THOSE FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY.  GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT EMILIA HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED ANY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35-45\r\nKT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT...BUT\r\nALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA WILL BE MOVING INTO A\r\nMORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  IN FACT...THE UKMET FORECAST 200 MB WINDS...COUPLED WITH THE\r\n30C WATERS...WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nGFDL...SHIPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALL PROJECTING EMILIA TO\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THE REGION OF FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS SMALL HOWEVER...SO\r\nIF EMILIA MOVES SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK\r\nITS DEVELOPMENT COULD BE DELAYED.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/10.  EMILIA APPEARS TO BE\r\nMAKING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AND I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO\r\nGET A LOT CLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST THAN IT ALREADY IS. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...WHICH MEANS THAT STORM\r\nCONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT NOT EXPECTED...STILL APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nAPPROPRIATE STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.   SHOULD EMILIA MOVE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK OR DEVELOP MORE RAPIDLY THAN\r\nEXPECTED...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD REACH THE WATCH AREA AS\r\nEARLY AS TOMORROW MORNING.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE...WITH THE GFS TAKING A VERY WEAK SYSTEM SHARPLY\r\nWESTWARD...AND THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF \r\nTHE WATCH AREA AS WELL AS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE GFDL HAS AN ODD\r\nTRACK...RESEMBLING THE GFS EARLY AND THE UKMET LATE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND ON THE\r\nRIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 17.4N 105.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.5N 106.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.7N 108.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 109.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 21.2N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 114.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 26.0N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AGO...EMILIA WAS NOT LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ILL-DEFINED AT BEST ON VARIOUS\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES...AND THERE WAS LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF\r\nBANDING FEATURES ON GEOSTATIONARY IR IMAGES.  IN FACT...A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS FROM 0145 UTC SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  HOWEVER THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS\r\nAND...ASSUMING THAT THE ACTUAL INTENSITY WAS 40 KT...IT COULD BE\r\nASSUMED THAT THERE WAS SOME ATTENUATION OF THE SPEED MEASUREMENTS\r\nDUE TO PRECIPITATION.  AN ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION WOULD BE THAT\r\nEMILIA WAS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ESTIMATED EARLIER.  HAVING SAID\r\nTHAT...LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION WITH SOME\r\nBANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  EMILIA SHOULD BE\r\nTRAVERSING WARM WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nVERY WEAK WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AS MUCH AS 75 N\r\nMI.  HOWEVER THE VARIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES...ESPECIALLY AN 0524 UTC\r\nAMSU-B PASS...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS TO THE WEST OF OUR\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 310/10. \r\nACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE STEERING\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nDOMINATE THE MOTION OF EMILIA WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  APPARENTLY\r\nTHE STORM IS ALREADY RESPONDING TO INCREASED RIDGING TO ITS NORTH\r\nSINCE THE HEADING SEEMS TO BE BENDING TO THE LEFT.  BASED ON THE\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS\r\nFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE FORECAST TRACK AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 17.8N 106.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.6N 107.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.3N 109.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N 110.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND BOTH\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EMILIA HAS\r\nBECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO\r\n55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM TAFB...A\r\nDATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A UW-CIMSS 3-H AVERAGE ADT OF\r\nT3.6/57 KT.\r\n \r\nTHERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION AND FORWARD\r\nMOTION OF EMILIA...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT BASED ON\r\nLIMITED MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. A LARGE AND RATHER STOUT MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.\r\nAND EXTENDING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT BASICALLY REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS. AS SUCH...THE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER STEERING FLOW\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP EMILIA MOVING IN A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. THE  MAJORITY OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE\r\nEXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS WHICH TAKE EMILIA\r\nQUICKLY WESTWARD FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION...WHICH SEEMS RATHER\r\nUNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND RECENT AMSU AND\r\nAMSR MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING...EMILIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE THAN PAST TRENDS HAVE BEEN.\r\nIN FACT...THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IMPROVING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS...AND NEAR-30C SSTS SUGGEST THAT EMILIA MAY BEGIN A\r\nPERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. THE\r\nRESULT WOULD BE A STRONGER CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO EMILIA MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 18.1N 107.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.8N 108.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.5N 110.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 111.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.9N 113.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N 115.7W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 118.5W    35 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 26.0N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND IMPROVE. T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM ALL THREE AGENCIES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT...AND A 3-HR\r\nAVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T3.7/59 KT. GIVEN THE BANDING EYE\r\nFEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPEARING IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/07 KT. THE FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED\r\nSLIGHTLY...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY TREND AND PROBABLY DUE\r\nTO THE INNER CORE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE LARGE MID- TO \r\nUPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.\r\nAND EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY \r\nSTEERING FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nFORCE EMILIA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS\r\nHAVING MADE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO THE MAIN MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...AND AN EYE MAY BECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS IF THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT TREND\r\nCONTINUES. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND\r\nBECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 28-29C AND IN A LOW OR NO SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A PERIOD OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION ENSUE SHORTLY...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BETWEEN THE 12H TO 24 H FORECAST\r\nPERIODS. BY 48 HOURS...EMILIA IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C\r\nSSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 18.4N 107.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 109.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 20.4N 112.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.1N 113.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.6N 116.1W    40 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 26.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 23 2006\r\n \r\nEARLIER THIS EVENING...VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTED THAT EMILIA WAS STRUGGLING THROUGH THE DIURNAL\r\nMINIMUM...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND\r\nOVER THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.\r\nHOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A MORE IMPRESSIVE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN WITH COLDER TOPS OF -70C AND AND A STRONG\r\nBANDING FEATURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55\r\nKT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...WITH A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 61 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nFOREGOING AND THE RECENT BANDING DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND\r\nWITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION REVEALS\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANTS. AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...EMILIA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND THROUGH A NOT SO FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THIS SHOULD TRIGGER A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/7...JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH A SHORT-TERM MOTION MORE LIKE DUE\r\nWEST. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE STRETCHING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE DURING\r\nTHE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO\r\nCLUSTERS. ONE CLUSTER...WHICH INCLUDES THE GFS/GFDL/ECMWF/GFDN...\r\nSUGGESTS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OTHER GROUPING...CONSISTING OF THE\r\nUKMET/NOGAPS/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND...ODDLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE...\r\nINDICATES A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING FLOW DURING THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 18.2N 108.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 19.4N 111.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.4N 112.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 21.4N 114.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 25.0N 119.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 27.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE ORGANIZATION OF EMILIA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KT BASED ON\r\nCONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.\r\nEMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS. ADDITIONALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THIS MAY ALREADY BE TAKING PLACE. ACCORDINGLY...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING SHUTS AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.\r\nTHESE TWO NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING WITH\r\nEMILIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE\r\nBY 120 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN\r\nTRENDING WEAKER BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY\r\nBASED ON THE INCREASING OUTFLOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/8. THE\r\nSTEERING IS DOMINATED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT EMILIA WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS\r\nRIDGE. AN ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS WHICH SHOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DUE TO A STRONGER\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC SOUTHEAST OF EMILIA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS\r\nFAIL TO SHOW THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SO IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTHAT THE LATTER RIDGE IS ALREADY TOO STRONG WITHIN THESE MODELS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 18.4N 109.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 18.8N 110.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 19.8N 112.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 21.8N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.8N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 24 2006\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT EMILIA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. \r\nIN FACT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO T 3.0...45\r\nKT...FROM SAB AND TAFB...WHILE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\n55 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES BECAUSE OF DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/8 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUSLY ADVISORY...AS\r\nEMILIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG\r\nMID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nEMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EMILIA TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE. THEREAFTER...EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nINDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND INDICATES THAT EMILIA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS\r\nDURING THE WEAKENING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 18.7N 110.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.3N 114.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.4N 116.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 25.0N 122.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF EMILIA IS  \r\nLOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION. \r\nCONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS IT \r\nAPPEARS THAT SOME STABLE AIR NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE \r\nHAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM AFWA...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 50 KT. \r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS TURNED MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND\r\nAPPEARS THAT IT MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nMID-TO-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7 KT. EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...BEING STEERED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nRIDGE. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT\r\nTHAT THE UKMET TRACKER SHIFTED TO ANOTHER VORTICITY CENTER OVER\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT 72 HOURS...WHICH CREATED AN UNREALISTIC CONU\r\nCONSENSUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN\r\nPROBLEM FOR INTENSIFICATION WILL BE THE STABLE AIR... AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRENGTHENING\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL KEEPS IN THE CHANCE THAT EMILIA\r\nCOULD BRIEFLY BECOME A HURRICANE. IN 36-48 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THAT WILL INDUCE \r\nWEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HOURS... THEN FOLLOWS IT CLOSELY DURING THE LATER\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 19.2N 110.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 19.8N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N 114.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N 116.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 24 2006\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO COME DOWN AS THE AMOUNT OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION GENERALLY DECREASES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nTO 45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nOVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO THERE HAS BEEN A MODEST INCREASE IN THE\r\nCORE BANDING AND SYMMETRY...EVEN AS THE TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM.\r\nTHERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nTONIGHT BEFORE EMILIA CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOMORROW. \r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN ALL THE COOL STABLE AIR BEING DRAWN INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...IT NO LONGER SEEMS AS THOUGH\r\nEMILIA CAN BECOME A HURRICANE.  BY LATE TOMORROW...EMILIA SHOULD\r\nBEGIN DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6...A TRACK QUITE A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION.  WATER VAPOR WINDS AND GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES\r\nSHOW A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF EMILIA WHICH IS HELPING TO\r\nNUDGE IT INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nBEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...WHICH HAD TO BE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE RECENT MOTION...IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFS/UKMET/GFDL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 19.8N 110.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 20.6N 111.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 112.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.3N 114.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.2N 115.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 25.5N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006\r\n \r\nEMILIA'S WEAKENING HAS...FOR THE TIME BEING...HALTED AS MORE\r\nPROMINENT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS EVENING. \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH AT\r\n3.0 OR 45 KT.  THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 320/06.  BASED UPON\r\nSHIP DGGV AT 06Z TO THE NORTHEAST OF EMILIA...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS WERE ANALYZED TO HAVE EXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.\r\n\r\nUSUALLY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WOULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT THAN IS\r\nFOUND WITH EMILIA.  HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL STORM IS SITUATED ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nGYRE...WHICH HAS BEEN HELPING TO PUSH THE STORM IN A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nDIRECTION.  AS EMILIA CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WEAKENING GYRE...ALONG\r\nWITH A CONTINUED STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EMILIA'S TRACK SHOULD \r\nBEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER PREDICTION...BUT NOT AS\r\nCLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AS THE GFDL MODEL IS SUGGESTING.  \r\n\r\nWHILE THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY WEAK AND SSTS ARE A WARM 27C...EMILIA\r\nIS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHORTLY.  THE\r\nSTORM MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR BEFORE MOVING OVER 23C WATERS IN TWO DAYS TIME.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS SHIPS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF EMILIA ARE\r\nANTICIPATED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...RAINBANDS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THAT AREA FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 20.2N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.3N 111.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.9N 113.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 24.3N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 25.2N 116.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED WITH\r\nINCREASING CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  DESPITE THE RECENT\r\nORGANIZATION...EMILIA'S OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS SMALL\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 12 HOURS WITH WEAKENING INDICATED THEREAFTER.  \r\n \r\nEMILIA IS LOCATED WITHIN A LARGE LOWER TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION IN BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.\r\nAND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION WHICH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT HANDLED WELL.\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUE AN OVERALL NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GFDL AGAIN TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARDS\r\nWHILE THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD.  GIVEN\r\nTHE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS.  SUBSEQUENTLY...A GRADUAL TURN\r\nMORE TOWARDS THE WEST IS SHOWN UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT AN\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES.  ONE CAVEAT IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nEMILIA COULD BE TOO FAR EAST FOR THE LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO TURN IT\r\nWESTWARD.  GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THE LATER STAGES OF\r\nTHE FORECAST...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN.  \r\n \r\nNEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SSM/I DERIVED OCEAN WINDS REQUIRE AN\r\nEXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THIS\r\nCHANGE NOW WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 20.6N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 21.8N 112.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 23.3N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 24.3N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 25.8N 119.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING\r\nTHE LAST 6 HOURS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n55 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT\r\nEMILIA HAS PEAKED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48\r\nHOURS AND BE DISSIPATED BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS AGAIN VEERED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 340/11.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nAPPARENTLY HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN\r\nWHICH CONSISTS OF A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED IN\r\nBETWEEN A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.\r\nAND A SECOND RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nWEAK TROUGH HAS FORMED WEST OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN\r\nA NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY. GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION AND THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG THE FAR RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nSUITE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND NEAR THE CONU CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.\r\nSIGNIFICANT SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXISTS DURING THE\r\nLATER STAGES OF THE FORECAST. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS\r\nSOLUTIONS IS WHETHER THE REMNANT LOW FROM EMILIA WILL BE FAR ENOUGH\r\nWEST TO BE STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLIES OR FAR ENOUGH EAST\r\nTO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE GFS BASED BAM MODELS BUT SLOWER GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS A LARGER THAN NORMAL SHIFT TO THE RIGHT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION AND ANTICIPATED TRACK...IT IS NOW NECESSARY\r\nTO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR\r\nSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 21.8N 111.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 23.1N 112.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N 115.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.2N 116.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 26.8N 118.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 25 2006\r\n \r\nLATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING\r\nINTERMITTENT APPEARANCES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING HAS INCREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 AND\r\nT3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...AND ALSO A 25/2035Z\r\nUW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 75 KT AND 975 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE SHORT TERM MOTION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN 355/12. HOWEVER...TRENDING\r\nTHROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS YIELDS A\r\nSMOOTHER MOTION OF 345/10 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN USED FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. UNFORTUNATELY...EVEN THAT MOTION...IF CONTINUED FOR THE\r\nNEXT 9 HOURS...WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF EMILIA VERY CLOSE TO CABO\r\nSAN LAZARO MEXICO. HOWEVER...WITH AN OFFSHORE WIND FLOW EXPECTED...\r\nTHE CURRENT TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO\r\nBAHIA MAGDALENA SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT. THERE ARE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BY 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN BE STEERED\r\nMORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION... AND IS\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nEMILIA HAS PERHAPS ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING AND\r\nIT COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME WHILE IT\r\nREMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. HOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS EMILIA\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN\r\n...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BY THE 24-HOUR FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH SHOWS EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF\r\nEMILIA BY 60 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 22.9N 111.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 24.3N 112.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.7N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N 115.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 116.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 27.6N 118.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS\r\nNEAR-HURRICANE INTENSITY WITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A TRMM\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A PARTIAL\r\nEYEWALL. A BLEND OF CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAFWA...AND CIMSS' ADT GIVE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 60 KT WHICH IS\r\nUTILIZED HERE.  EMILIA'S MOTION IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n325/10.\r\n\r\nEMILIA IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ITS DECAY SHORTLY AS IT IS CURRENTLY OVER\r\n25C SSTS AND WILL MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.\r\nADDITIONALLY... MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE AIRMASS\r\nSHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EMILIA'S WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nCURRENTLY...EMILIA'S NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS BEING CAUSED BY THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND A WEAK LOW TO\r\nMID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  AS EMILIA WEAKENS...IT\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE FORECAST IS JUST TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nEMILIA WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE WEST COAST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 24.0N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 25.2N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 26.3N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N 116.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 26 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DISPLAYS A WELL DEFINED BANDING\r\nFEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY\r\n36 GHZ DATA FROM THE AMSR-E INSTRUMENT AT 0939 UTC.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT...WHICH IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.  \r\nDESPITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 24C...EMILIA IS HOLDING ITS\r\nOWN QUITE WELL.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTER SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nOR EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD FINALLY\r\nWEAKEN EMILIA TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/11.  THE STEERING MECHANISM OF EMILIA HAS\r\nBEEN A CHALLENGE TO IDENTIFY...AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHOWN A LEFT BIAS.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nEMILIA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A\r\nWEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT-TERM WITH A MORE WESTERLY\r\nTRACK AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT\r\nEMILIA WILL JUST PARALLEL THE BAJA COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nA 1200 UTC SHIP...MQYA3...REPORTED AT NORTHWEST WIND AT 30 KT AROUND\r\n50 N MI WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. CONSEQUENTLY...THE WIND RADII\r\nWERE REDUCED ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nLAND STATIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS\r\nDISCONTINUED A PORTION OF THE WARNED AREA FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD.   \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 24.7N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.7N 114.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.6N 116.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.1N 117.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.5N 118.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 28.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING UNDER THE INHIBITING\r\nINFLUENCE OF 22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  STABLE STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUDS ARE BECOMING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nDATA-T NUMBERS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITIES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nAS A RESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...EMILIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 320/10.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND A\r\nWEAK TROUGH TO THE WEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS THE SAME.  A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF PUERTO SAN\r\nANDRESITO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 25.5N 114.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.3N 115.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N 117.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 27.7N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 28.2N 119.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 26 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT EMILIA CONTINUES\r\nTO STRUGGLE WITH THE AFFECTS OF THE COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND THE STABLE MARINE LAYER.  THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nCONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA ABOUT 60 NM NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 55\r\nKT...WITH FINAL T-NUMBERS DOWN TO 30 KT.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS\r\nAND DISSIPATING BY 48-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA 2209Z MICROWAVE TRMM OVERPASS AND AN 1822Z AMSU-B IMAGE SUGGEST\r\nTHAT EMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS...AROUND 300/11.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITHIN THE\r\nLOW-TO-MID STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 25.8N 115.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.6N 117.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 27.2N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.6N 119.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2006\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS...ABOUT 0130 UTC...SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF\r\n35 TO 40 KT WINDS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AND IT IS NOW SHAPELESS AND THE CYCLONE IS VOID OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED\r\nTO 30 KT. FURTHER WEAKENING OVER COOL WATER IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nEMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11\r\nKNOTS. A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN\r\nA DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 26.4N 116.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 27.2N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 27.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 27 2006\r\n\r\nEMILIA HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS...AND IS\r\nNOW A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER COOL 21C WATER.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A 25 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AND CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nEMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n11 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nLATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 27.1N 118.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 27.7N 120.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 28.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006\r\n \r\nEMILIA REMAINS AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH A\r\nLITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA...AND SURFACE WINDS FROM A 1430Z SSM/I\r\nOVERPASS.  SINCE EMILIA IS OVER 21C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE\r\nCONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HR OR LESS AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE\r\nIN LESS THAN 36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY A\r\nSTRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 27.3N 119.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 27.7N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emilia","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP062006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062006\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 27 2006\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS NOW A NON-CONVECTIVE SWIRL IN THE LOW CLOUDS OFF OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 25 KT BASED UPON A SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9. EMILIA IS BEING STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE WEST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER COLD WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nEMILIA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST\r\nBRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 28.0N 119.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 28.4N 120.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1411Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED ABOUT 830 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...HAS FORMED INTO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A\r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR AND\r\nMODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACES\r\nTEMPERATURES IN 48 HOURS.  THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nLIKELY THEREAFTER.  IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIX ESTIMATES. ALL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP-LAYERED FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nANTICYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED BUILDING OF THE\r\nRIDGE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nROBERTS/PASCH\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 14.2N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.3N 123.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.9N 128.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 15.4N 130.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N 140.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 145.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS\r\nTO 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 31 KT FROM UW\r\nCIMSS ADT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FABIO WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  FABIO IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSHOWN THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER ATMOSPHERE...AND\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONTROLS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING WITH MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS THE\r\nCYCLONE LONGER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12.   GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO\r\nCAMPS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS THEN TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE BAM MODELS SHOW A NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 48 HOUR\r\nWITH ONLY A SLIGHT BEND TOWARD THE WEST THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS\r\nALONG THE NORTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.  THIS ALSO\r\nREPRESENTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 14.5N 123.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.8N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 15.2N 127.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 15.8N 129.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 16.3N 132.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nFABIO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB \r\nAND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nWILL REMAIN 35 KT. FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...FABIO IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENTERING A DRIER MID LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT FABIO COULD WEAKEN OR EVEN DISSIPATE SOONER\r\nTHAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY \r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT\r\nINDICATES A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST...\r\nSHOWING SOME RESPECT FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. FABIO IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN ON A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE\r\nWESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS.  THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS CLOSE TO \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 14.8N 124.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 15.2N 126.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 15.7N 129.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 16.2N 131.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N 138.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N 143.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 148.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE CURVED BANDING HAS INCREASED IN EXTENT OVER THE WESTERN\r\nHALF THIS MORNING...WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL\r\nCHIMING IN AT 45 KT.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nBUMPED UP TO 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nINCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT THE PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME...WITH A STABLE RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS AND INCREASED\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND DAY 3 LIKELY TO DECREASE THE SYSTEM TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/11....WITH A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SOUTH PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSTRONG MID TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. BEYOND DAY 3...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW\r\nLAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 15.0N 125.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 15.8N 130.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 16.2N 133.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 16.4N 135.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N 140.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N 150.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR AS IMPRESSIVE AS\r\nIT DID THIS MORNING...CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING'S PACKAGE. INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3...ULTIMATELY TO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/13...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS 6 HOUR MOTION.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFABIO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE\r\nWESTWARD...INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS\r\nBASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 15.0N 127.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.2N 129.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.7N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.2N 137.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 147.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N 152.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n\r\nTHE FINAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SUGGEST THE THE CENTER OF FABIO\r\nIS SOMEWHAT EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION... REQUIRING A SMALL SOUTHWARD RELOCATION TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.   THOUGH THE CYCLONE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN 6\r\nHOURS AGO...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  SHEAR VALUES ARE NOT FORECAST TO\r\nCHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SSTS ONLY SLOWLY\r\nDECREASE.  THEREFORE ONLY A MODEST WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE\r\nNEAR-TERM... WITH FASTER WEAKENING IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.. 275/12. A\r\nSTRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE\r\nSYSTEM IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FASHION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES\r\nA SHALLOWER SYSTEM MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 14.7N 128.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 14.9N 130.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.3N 133.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.6N 135.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 138.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 144.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N 154.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...AND A CIRCULAR SHAPED CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN PERSISTS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION...AS DEPICTED BY RECENT PASSIVE\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN\r\n3.0 OR 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT AS WELL. SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING\r\nTHE STORM...AND THIS INHIBITING FACTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nRELATIVELY CONSTANT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER WHICH...THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN\r\nUNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nEXPECTED TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13. A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE ANCHORED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF FABIO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS THE THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND GFDL GUIDANCE CLOSELY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 14.7N 129.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 14.9N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 15.2N 134.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 137.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.7N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.0N 145.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N 155.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER COMPLETELY DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS MORNING...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS ONCE AGAIN FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALBEIT\r\nDISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE WEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT MODERATE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS APPEARS IS\r\nHINDERING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT\r\nBASED ON THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TREND AND AN AVERAGE OF THE VARIOUS\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN LINE WITH THE FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE. TOWARDS THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST...INCREASING\r\nSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RENDER THE CYCLONE CONVECTION-FREE AND THE\r\nFORECAST SHOWS DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION...THE SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS\r\nBEEN A LITTLE ERRATIC BUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS 280/14. A\r\nSTRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO IS EXPECTED STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\nMUCH OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL NOT BECOME SHALLOW UNTIL 48 HOURS AND THUS ALLOWS SOME\r\nADDITIONAL NORTHWARD PROGRESS.  THEREAFTER...AN INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS BUT THOSE MODELS ALSO DISSIPATE THE\r\nSYSTEM QUICKER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE\r\nNEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 14.9N 131.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N 133.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 15.3N 136.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 15.6N 138.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N 141.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N 147.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N 156.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY\r\nDISPLACED FROM FROM THE CENTER. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...AND INCREASINGLY\r\nSTABLE AIR HAVE DONE THEIR DAMAGE AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED\r\nTO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. STILL...WITH THE CYCLONE REMAINING OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26C OR GREATER FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...NEW\r\nBURSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS A DEPRESSION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  IF NEW BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THIS FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS AND THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.  IN FACT... MOST OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE SHOW JUST THAT.\r\n \r\nFABIO IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 275/14. UNDER THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL\r\nDEPTH FOR A LITTLE LONGER...THE FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHWARD\r\nPROGRESS THROUGH 36 HOURS...ALBEIT NOT AS MUCH AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND\r\nSTEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. SOME OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST BUT THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SIMPLY TURNS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD FOR THE TIME BEING.  \r\nONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 15.1N 132.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 15.3N 134.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.6N 137.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.7N 140.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.7N 143.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 15.7N 148.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 15.7N 153.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF FABIO IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TONIGHT WITH ONLY A BURST\r\nOF THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT FABIO IS NOW A DEPRESSION AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KT. ANY CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY DUE TO PLENTY OF DRY STABLE AIR AND\r\nEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED AND SHOULD\r\nBECOME MORE PRONOUNCED IN A COUPLE DAYS AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nHITS THE CYCLONE. IF NEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DO NOT OCCUR...THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST SIX HOURS OF MOTION HAVE FABIO RIGHT ON TRACK... 275\r\nDEGREES... AT A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF 15 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nGENERALLY FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY SEEMINGLY DUE TO A RATHER\r\nSTRONG MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST ALSO IS FASTER AND CLOSE TO CONU...TAKING THE SYSTEM\r\nSOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N 136.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.6N 140.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.8N 143.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 153.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPRESSION AS AN EXPOSED\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 120 NMI\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0330 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.  AS ABUNDANT \r\nDRY STABLE AIR AFFECTS THE CYCLONE...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH POSSIBLE BRIEF INTERMITTENT FLARE-UPS OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS.  HOWEVER IF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOES NOT\r\nREGENERATE AGAIN...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY.   \r\n\r\nFABIO IS CONTINUING ON A WESTERLY TRACK AT 275/15...SANDWICHED\r\nBETWEEN A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTH AND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES\r\nTHE CYCLONE...OR REMNANT LOW...ON A WESTERLY TRACK UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OCCURS.  THIS FOLLOWS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.  THE NOGAPS MODEL IS THE\r\nONLY OUTLIER WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE INTACT THROUGH 5 DAYS.  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 15.2N 135.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.4N 138.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N 141.6W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N 144.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nFABIO CONTINUES TO BE DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CONSISTS\r\nPRIMARILY OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 30 KT BASED ON THE TYPICAL SPIN DOWN RATE AND AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THE DEPRESSION IS STILL OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF 26 C OR GREATER...SOME INTERMITTENT ISOLATED\r\nCONVECTION IS STILL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE WEAKENING AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFABIO IS CURRENTLY MOVING DUE WEST OR 270/15.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS THIS MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AT WHICH TIME DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 15.1N 137.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N 139.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.1N 142.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.1N 145.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP072006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072006\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nFABIO HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION TODAY\r\nAND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NOW BEEN EXPOSED FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND NO LONGER HAS THE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ACCORDINGLY...THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM.  THE REMNANT LOW OF FABIO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD NEAR\r\n15 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.  THERE ARE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nEXCEPT TO DISSIPATE THE REMNANT LOW SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 15.0N 138.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.9N 141.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.8N 144.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 31 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nACAPULCO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME\r\nSUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UNANIMOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE\r\nCENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE EAST SIDE OF AN AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SHEAR MAY RELAX A BIT\r\nALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL BE NEARING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/9. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nCREATING ERRATIC SHORT-TERM MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUING TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. TOWARD THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE. SOME\r\nOF THE MODELS INDICATE THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND INCREASED\r\nRIDGING WILL DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WHILE OTHER MODELS\r\nSHOW THE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES\r\nTHE TROUGH WILL LIFT SUFFICIENTLY NORTH TO ALLOW A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARDS THE WEST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 12.7N 104.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.7N 107.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.3N 109.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 14.7N 111.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N 115.3W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.1N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO\r\nBE SHEARED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY AND A 0100 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS. GIVEN THIS ADJUSTMENT...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SET AT A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/7. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...THEREFORE THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS QUICKLY LOSE WHATEVER REPRESENTATION OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION THEY HAVE. REGARDLESS...THE GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED ALONG \r\n25N. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AS AN UPPER\r\nTROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.\r\nAS A RESULT...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nNORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL LOCATION THE TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE\r\nTROUGH. IF THE CYCLONE IS WEAKER THAN FORECASTED...A TRACK MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY RELAXED\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AFTER 24 HOURS...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SSTS AFTER 72\r\nHOURS. THIS TREND IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 13.6N 104.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.3N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N 106.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 15.5N 108.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 15.9N 109.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N 113.2W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...WITH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INCREASE\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...35 KT.  GILMA SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA\r\nOF SLIGHTLY RELAXED EASTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS...PROVIDING FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  AFTERWORDS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE INTO A\r\nLESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SSTS AFTER DAY 3.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST AND IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN\r\nOR DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IN 72 HOURS OR LESS. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nDEVELOP AS AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE BAMM AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE TURN GILMA TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...WHICH FORMS THE BASIS OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   \r\nTHE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS THE SYSTEM DRIFTING WITHIN THE\r\nWEAKNESS AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE GFDL...AND THE GFS BETA ADVECTION MEDIUM\r\nLAYER MODEL.\r\n\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 13.8N 105.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 14.4N 106.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 15.1N 107.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 109.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 15.7N 110.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.6N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N 119.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nGILMA IS NOW EXPOSED EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE\r\nVIGOROUS WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 35 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nMOTION IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...310/7.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE BROAD\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES NORTH\r\nOF 30N...MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR TROUGH OVER CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO.  THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD BY\r\n72-120 HR.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN\r\nEVOLUTION BY KEEPING ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF GILMA TO MOVE IT\r\nWESTWARD THROUGH 120 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS...\r\nLBAR...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CALL FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nAFTER 72 HR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INITIALIZED GILMA RATHER\r\nPOORLY...EXCEPT THE UKMET WHICH TRACKS THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.  ADDITIONALLY...THE OTHER GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM\r\nTO REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION VERY WELL.  SO...THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR TO REFLECT THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION...AND SHIFTED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD AFTER 96 HR TO\r\nREFLECT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE WEST COAST TROUGH WILL NOT DEEPEN\r\nFAR ENOUGH SOUTHWARD TO STRONGLY TURN GILMA.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT GILMA WILL REMAIN IN EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nTHROUGH 36-48 HR...WHICH WILL AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nSHEAR DECREASES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT TIME...BUT THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK START DECREASING ABOUT THAT\r\nTIME.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL 48 HR...AND SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE...SO GILMA\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN LESS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 14.4N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N 106.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.3N 107.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.7N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N 111.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 01 2006\r\n\r\nAFTER A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THUNDERSTORMS\r\nHAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER OF GILMA.  EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS SEEMINGLY PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED A\r\nLITTLE...THE RECENT COLLAPSE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS LITTLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE.  THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 35 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND SHIPS/GFDL SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED JUST A LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT AS LOW AS GUIDANCE...YET.    \r\n\r\nGILMA IS STILL MOVING TO NORTHWEST SLOWLY.. 310/6.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nHAVE A SLIGHTLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THAN EARLIER AND THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS\r\nHOW LONG THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE.  THE UKMET SHOWS\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MOVING\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHE GFS SHOWS QUITE A DIFFERENT SOLUTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH\r\nACTUALLY FORMING NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE... CAUSING A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nTHE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN TOWARD A DIGGING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED\r\nSTATES BEYOND THREE DAYS.  A COMPOSITE OF THESE THREE REASONABLE\r\nMODEL SOLUTIONS IS USED FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 14.8N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 15.1N 106.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.4N 108.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 15.7N 109.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N 119.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON GILMA...AS THE CONVECTION\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED LEAVING BEHIND A\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CLEARLY SEEN IN SHORTWAVE\r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  DATA-T NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB AND 1.0 FROM AFWA COMBINED WITH THE LACK CONVECTION RESULT IN\r\nGILMA BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES\r\nTHAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS GILMA\r\nMOVES INTO A DRIER ENVIRONMENT...AND BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARGUE\r\nAGAINST RESTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...A QUICK BURST\r\nOF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD QUICKLY BRING GILMA BACK TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT ANY TIME SINCE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS\r\nWELL DEFINED. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX...HOWEVER THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS DRY AND SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES DECREASE TO MARGINAL VALUES. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE SIX-HOUR MEAN MOTION IS AROUND 315/04...HOWEVER GILMA APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE NEARLY STALLED IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE IMPACT OF\r\nTHE DEEP EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE NOW SHALLOW CIRCULATION HAS\r\nDECREASED. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 96 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO THE\r\nSLOWER AND MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION OF GILMA IN THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THE UKMET...NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A STRONGER GILMA\r\nRECURVING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW DIGGING SOUTH OFF THE\r\nWEST COAST.  THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH\r\nBYPASSING GILMA... AND THIS SCENARIO IS PREFERRED WITH A WEAKER AND\r\nMORE SHALLOW CYCLONE.  THE DAY FIVE POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 14.6N 106.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 16.1N 109.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 16.6N 111.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON GILMA WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING COMPLETELY EXPOSED OVERNIGHT. OVER\r\nTHE LAST FEW HOURS...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS BURST AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC AS THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR TO REMAIN STRONG BUT THE SST SUFFICIENTLY WARM. THIS\r\nENVIRONMENT WOULD TEND TO ALLOW THE BURSTING PATTERN TO CONTINUE\r\nWHERE DEEP CONVECTION FORMS OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER THEN GETS BLOWN\r\nOFF TO THE WEST.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MAINTAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE GILMA TO BRIEFLY\r\nREGAIN ITS FORMER TROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION...THE MOTION IS\r\nERRATIC. THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE\r\nWEST AT 285/04 WHILE THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 300/04.  GIVEN THE\r\nPRESENT BURSTING SCENARIO...THE LATER IS FELT TO BE A MORE RELIABLE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS EQUALLY AS\r\nCHALLENGING AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE IN PART TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY ON THE EVENTUAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY...\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFYING\r\nOFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN SHOW LESS AMPLIFICATION ALLOWING A RIDGE TO DEVELOP NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE THUS IMPARTING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  CONVERSELY...\r\nTHE UKMET SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH...WEAKER RIDGING NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH.  SHOULD THE\r\nBURSTING OF CONVECTION CONTINUE...THE CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO STAIR\r\nSTEP ITS WAY IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS\r\nARE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 14.9N 106.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 15.7N 108.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.3N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 111.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 18.2N 113.7W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED OVER\r\nTHE CENTER OF GILMA DURING THE DAY...WHICH WAS ENOUGH TO BRING THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB UP TO 35 KT AT 18Z. \r\nSINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED AS\r\nTHE BURST HAS WEAKENED.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 30 KT...AND GILMA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/5.  GILMA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN AN AREA\r\nOF WEAK STEERING FLOW SOUTHEAST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED\r\nWEST OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED\r\nOVER CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH POSSIBLY SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION THAT\r\nLOOKS SUSPECT...WHILE THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS CLOSE TO THE CONU\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND THEN FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE BAM MODELS THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT GILMA\r\nIS ENCOUNTERING 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 48 HR BEFORE\r\nDECREASING.  BY THAT TIME...GILMA SHOULD BE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...ALTHOUGH IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT A\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST COULD CAUSE GILMA TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATER\r\nAFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 15.0N 107.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 15.4N 108.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.9N 110.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.6N 112.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 02 2006\r\n\r\nGILMA LOOKS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER ON\r\nTHE EAST SIDE AND A NOTICEABLE LACK OF CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE\r\nWEAKENING EFFECTS OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR ARE SOMEWHAT\r\nBALANCED BY WARM SSTS.  THEREAFTER...COOLING SSTS SHOULD FINISH OFF\r\nWHAT'S LEFT OF THE CYCLONE.  IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT GILMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST IF THE\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT REFIRE NEAR THE CENTER.  \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ITS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION..\r\nCURRENTLY 295/7...DUE TO WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH. \r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING IS THE SAME AS BEFORE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE\r\nFORECAST OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.. WHICH SHOULD ALLOW GILMA TO MOVE\r\nMORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO WITH SOME ACCELERATION.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND FOLLOWS BAM\r\nSHALLOW CLOSELY AFTER 2 DAYS ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE'S DEMISE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 15.4N 107.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 15.8N 108.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 16.6N 110.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.6N 111.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N 113.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH AROUND GILMA AND THE CENTER\r\nREMAINS EXPOSED. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 1.5 AND 1.0\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 24 KT FROM A 0149 UTC HI-RES\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS JUSTIFY DECREASING THE INTENSITY TO 25 KT. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER GILMA AND THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL MOVE INTO AN EVEN DRIER ENVIRONMENT...MAKING THE PROSPECTS FOR\r\nANY RE-STRENGTHENING SLIM. GILMA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW LATER TODAY...AND PERSIST FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS 285/5...AND GILMA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK PRIOR TO DISSIPATION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 15.4N 108.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.8N 109.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N 110.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION AROUND GILMA HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...ONE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT\r\n60 TO 120 NM SW OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND DATA T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nTEMPORARILY A CONSENSUS 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS TYPE OF PULSING\r\nACTIVITY WAS EXPECTED...AND IS ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS AS THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO REMNANT LOW. \r\n\r\nGILMA HAS ACCELERATED SLIGHTLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/7. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS... CANADIAN...AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS WHICH ALL DISSIPATE GILMA INTO AN OPEN TROUGH WITHIN 24 TO\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 15.7N 109.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.3N 110.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 112.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082006\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 03 2006\r\n \r\nA 1254Z HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT EXCEPT FOR SOME\r\nHIGHER RAIN-FLAGGED VECTORS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EARLIER THUNDERSTORM\r\nCLUSTER...WINDS AROUND GILMA ARE NO MORE THAN ABOUT 20 KT. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED...AND THE\r\nRECENT FORMATION OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING UP TO 300 NM\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING A\r\nTRANSITION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED ON GILMA. THE REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...POSSIBLY\r\nPRODUCING OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM\r\nWATER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 16.0N 110.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006\r\n \r\nTHE WELL DEFINED LOW WHICH BEEN TRACKED FOR THE PAST DAY OR TWO HAS\r\nATTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE SEASON IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.\r\nCURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE \r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND BRINGS THE\r\nCYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS. BY 96 HOURS...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND\r\nSTEADILY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY BETWEEN 125W AND 130W IS FORECAST\r\nTO SHIFT WESTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nIN 2-3 DAYS. BASED ON THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER AND ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24-48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE TRACK \r\nREMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 13.0N 114.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.4N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.9N 117.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.3N 119.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 17.1N 125.3W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N 133.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nINDICATE THAT T.D. NINE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT.  A RECENT TRMM PASS INDICATED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...IMPLYING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESTRICT STRENGTHENING GIVEN\r\nAN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR AS IT\r\nMOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY\r\nBETWEEN 125W AND 135W WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON\r\nTHIS SOLUTION SAVE THE UKMET WHICH MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS RESULTING IN ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 13.3N 115.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.5N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.0N 119.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.7N 121.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.8N 123.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 17.8N 127.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CORE CONVECTION ALL EVENING\r\nWITH INTERMITTENT BANDING...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS JUST WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 06Z WERE T2.5...35 KT...FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH\r\nDATA-T NUMBERS AS HIGH AS T3.5.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z CAUGHT SOME\r\nOF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE WERE A LOT OF 30 KT VECTORS\r\nOUTSIDE THE HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH ONE\r\nVECTOR NEAR 35 KT.  THE PASS MISSED THE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIKELY\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET TO\r\n40 KT.  \r\n\r\nIF THE CENTER IS WHERE I THINK IT IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AT 270/13.  THERE HAS\r\nBEEN ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK...AND THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED.  HECTOR IS\r\nMOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE\r\nERODED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DESPITE THIS EXHIBIT A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACKS OF HECTOR.  THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS ARE THE\r\nNOGAPS AND GFNI...WHICH START OFF THE CYCLONE WITH AN IMMEDIATE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION.  ON THE LEFT IS THE UKMET...WHICH MARCHES HECTOR QUICKLY\r\nOFF TO THE WEST AND SUBSEQUENTLY MISSES THE TROUGH.  THE INITIAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION IN THE UKMET ALSO SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH PRESENT\r\nTRENDS.  THIS LEAVES THE GFS AND GFDL IN THE MIDDLE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS THROUGH\r\n96 HOURS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HECTOR\r\nPRESUMABLY WEAKENS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BENDS SLIGHTLY BACK TO\r\nTHE WEST IN ACCORD WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n\r\nTHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER HECTOR...\r\nALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  HECTOR ALSO HAS ALMOST TWO DAYS OVER WARM WATERS.  THE GFDL\r\nBRINGS HECTOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS...BUT THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE TOPS OUT AT 54 KT.  THE MAIN NEGATIVE PREDICTORS SEEM TO\r\nBE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF COLD SATELLITE PIXEL\r\nCOUNTS...WHICH I CANNOT RECONCILE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION.  GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...I AM\r\nINCLINED TO FAVOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL...AND NOTE THAT THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE ALSO BRINGS HECTOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS. \r\nBY 72 HOURS...HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 13.1N 116.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.4N 118.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N 120.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 14.6N 122.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 127.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006\r\n \r\nALL INDICATIONS FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ARE THAT\r\nHECTOR IS STRENGTHENING...BUT JUST HOW STRONG IS SUBJECT TO SOME\r\nSPECULATION...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL-EMBEDDED BENEATH THE MASS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1052Z SUGGESTED THE\r\nCENTER WAS STILL TENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...IN\r\nLARGE PART DUE TO THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY.  GIVEN THE CENTER\r\nLOCATION SUGGESTED BY THE TRMM DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGH END OF THE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON. \r\nINDEED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE\r\nDAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD...WITH A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 80 KT AT 36-48 HOURS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nHECTOR CONTINUES WESTWARD FOR NOW...270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. \r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER\r\nTHE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC.  HECTOR WILL PROBABLY SOON START\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nNEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO PERSIST DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR...BUT WITH JUST ENOUGH\r\nRIDGING TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  A\r\nCOUPLE OF OUTLIERS REMAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ON THE NORTH AND THE UKMET ON THE\r\nSOUTH.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODELS\r\nIN THE MIDDLE...THE GFDL AND GFS...AND IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 13.0N 117.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.9N 120.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 14.6N 122.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.3N 124.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH A BANDING EYE BEGINNING TO FORM.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT...BUT HECTOR COULD\r\nEASILY BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/9.  HECTOR IS MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS...CONTINUING ON WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE\r\nTO SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS...CAUSING HECTOR TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nUKMET AND THE NOGAPS REMAIN THE OUTLIERS...WITH THE UKMET\r\nMAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH DAY 5...AND NOGAPS INDICATING\r\nA MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII ARE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1357Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 13.8N 117.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.1N 119.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 14.6N 120.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.2N 122.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N 124.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 16 2006\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HECTOR WENT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE\r\nDAY APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A TEMPORARY HIATUS.  CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOW BECOME A CONSENSUS 3.5 FROM ALL THREE\r\nAGENCIES AND JUSTIFY MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AT AN INTENSITY OF 55\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nHECTOR APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD JOG\r\nDURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9...BUT THIS\r\nCOULD BE PART OF A SERIES OF WOBBLES AS THE CONVECTION TRIES TO\r\nORGANIZE.  NONETHELESS...THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTH\r\nDURING THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION...BUT THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND\r\nTHAT. THIS TRACK IS ALSO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN\r\nORDER TO PLACE LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS SO FAR.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR MAY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nBECOME MARGINAL AT 48 HOURS AND THE STORM IS ALREADY MOVING INTO A\r\nMORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nGUIDANCE AND ONLY STRENGTHENS HECTOR TO 75 KT BY 36 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL TAKE THEIR TOLL WITH HECTOR LIKELY TO BECOME A\r\nDEPRESSION BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 14.3N 118.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.7N 119.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 121.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 16.2N 123.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 125.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N 134.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH HECTOR HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER\r\nTHAN -80C NOW CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/9...ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD JOG MAY BE\r\nUNDERWAY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HECTOR IS ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 25N130W. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR\r\n72 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH N OF 25N W OF 125W.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP HECTOR\r\nMOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...WITH A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION LIKELY THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nFAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH\r\nKEEPS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF HECTOR AND THUS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A\r\nMORE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION...LYING ALONG\r\nTHE LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN GUIDANCE CLUSTER.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nHECTOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND IT IS APPROACHING AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS\r\nTHAT EXISTS BETWEEN UPPER-LEVEL HIGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nNEAR SOCORRO ISLAND AND 16N134W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THIS DUAL-HIGH PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY A SINGLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL HIGH NEAR OR OVER HECTOR IN 24-48 HR...WHICH WOULD\r\nDECREASE THE SHEAR.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME HECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO\r\nTHESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nCALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 75 KT IN 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE GFDL FOR THE FIRST 24\r\nHR...WITH HECTOR FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.  IT\r\nTHEN FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS FOR THE REST OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER 72-96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nA SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE DEVELOPING MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...HECTOR COULD WEAKEN FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 14.5N 119.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 121.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.8N 123.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.6N 125.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 17.4N 127.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 17 2006\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nFEATURE HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEVELOPED WHITE BAND OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77\r\nKT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND ADT CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST HECTOR IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN 70 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE REMAINING\r\nPORTIONS. INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEREFORE...A LITTLE MORE\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. BY DAY\r\n3...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nAS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...ALONG\r\n140W. THIS SCENARIO COULD INFLUENCE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11.  HECTOR IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC TO 27N130W FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS...TURNING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER AS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON THE UKMET.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 14.7N 121.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.3N 122.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 16.2N 124.9W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 17.1N 126.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 128.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N 136.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A INTENSIFYING\r\nCYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE HAVING FORMED OVER THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB...TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS\r\nADT ARE UNANIMOUSLY BETWEEN 75 AND 80 KT. ADDITIONALLY...AN AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM AN OVERPASS AROUND 1400 UTC WAS 76 KT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE GIVEN THE\r\nRECENT APPEARANCE OF AN EYE AND THE OVERALL IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE\r\nSIGNATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS A LITTLE MUDDIED BY THE CURRENT\r\nDEVELOPMENT TREND.  NONE OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nMUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTING A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KT...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE 83 KT...AND THE\r\nGFDL 91 KT.  HOWEVER...IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE SEEMINGLY NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT FEATURES WHICH MIGHT ARREST THE CURRENT UPWARD TREND.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND LARGE\r\nAREA OF DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF HECTOR.\r\nHOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS ASSUMED THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE UNAFFECTED BY THIS DRY AIR. INDEED...SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SHEAR AXIS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO AS IT IS OBLITERATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM HECTOR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSPECTRUM AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL...SHOWING HECTOR\r\nBECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND\r\nDAY 2...THE FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE STRAIGHTFORWARD AS\r\nHECTOR MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS... ULTIMATELY\r\nRESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11.  HECTOR CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE HURRICANE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH BUT IS OTHERWISE\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 15.0N 122.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.4N 123.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N 125.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N 127.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N 129.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N 132.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 22.5N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 17 2006\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF HECTOR BECAME CLOUD FILLED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING\r\nTHE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AT THIS\r\nTIME... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE BETWEEN 77 AND 85 KT...FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT. \r\n  \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD BE REACHING ITS \r\nPEAK INTENSITY SOON.  THE GFDL MODEL IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN \r\nSTRENGTHENING THE HURRICANE TO ABOVE 90 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHILE\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS PEAK HECTOR AT 82 AND 81 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  SINCE THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF WHY HECTOR\r\nSHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN FURTHER...THE FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY\r\nTO 90 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GFDL AND\r\nSHIPS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A MORE RAPID WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 285/11.  HECTOR CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. \r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES\r\nA DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE\r\nLEFT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE\r\nTO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 15.4N 123.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.9N 124.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.7N 126.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.6N 128.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.4N 130.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 132.8W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N 138.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AGAIN THIS MORNING. \r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED AT THE SAME\r\nTIME.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...\r\nAND THAT IS NOW THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE CURRENTLY HAS\r\nGOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 285-290 DEGREES AT 11-12 KT. \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  HECTOR REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AS HECTOR APPROACHES A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. \r\nAFTER 96 HR...A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS HECTOR WEAKENS\r\nAND LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE\r\nA LEFT OUTLIER CALLING FOR A WESTERLY MOTION... WHILE THE GFS IS\r\nSTILL ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C...AND THE\r\nWATER GETS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HECTOR SHOULD PEAK IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HR...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY DONE SO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  ONE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE IS A FASTER WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION AFTER 48\r\nHR...AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINCREASE AS HECTOR MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AT 0200Z...WHICH SHOWED HECTOR WAS SOMEWHAT LARGER\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.8N 124.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 18.3N 129.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N 131.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 136.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006\r\n\r\nTRMM AND AQUA MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1000 UTC SHOW THAT THE\r\nEYEWALL OF HECTOR HAS BECOME OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS ALSO BECOME DEGRADED WITH\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN LOOKING A LITTLE ASYMMETRIC.  T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nSAB/TAFB HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n85 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD. \r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE PASSING THE 26.5C ISOTHERM WHICH SHOULD\r\nCONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH WOULD\r\nALSO HELP WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.  SHIPS WEAKENS HECTOR RATHER\r\nQUICKLY IN THE SHORT-TERM COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO... WHICH MAY BE\r\nA BIT TOO FAST DUE TO DIAGNOSED SHEAR VALUES THAT APPEARS TO BE\r\nOVERESTIMATED.  ON THE OTHER HAND... GFDL HOLDS ONTO HECTOR AS A\r\nHURRICANE FOR 2 DAYS WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS...WHICH PROBABLY HAS THE\r\nRIGHT IDEA...AND AGREES WELL WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE... ABOUT 290/12. \r\nTHE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF A MIDDLE-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  HECTOR COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE ON TWO EXTREMES OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WITH THE NOGAPS PLOWING HECTOR\r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...\r\nWHILE THE UKMET IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED AND CONTINUES MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE BIT\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 16.1N 125.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N 127.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.8N 129.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.7N 130.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N 132.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 22.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS PERIODICALLY BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN BOTH THE\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nMAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY VALUES OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n85 KT.  A 1446Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS EXTEND OUT ABOUT 125 NM AT MOST IN THE NW QUADRANT AND TO \r\n75 NM AT MOST IN THE SW QUADRANT...WHICH IS SMALLER THAN OUR\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION OF HECTOR CONTINUES AT A HEADING OF 290 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 12 KT.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EQUATORWARD\r\nSIDE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS WITH TIME...IT\r\nSHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW THAT WILL TURN THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AS THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD ON TO TOO STRONG AND TOO LARGE A VORTEX\r\nFOR TOO LONG.\r\n\r\nHECTOR IS GOING TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR\r\nWHICH SHOULD BEGIN MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN ABOUT A DAY.\r\nHOWEVER... THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL TOO HIGH DUE TO ADJACENT STRONG SHEAR ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THE CIMSS VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM 18Z SUGGESTS\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR CLOSER TO 5 TO 10 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nGENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND ABOVE THE FSU\r\nSUPER-ENSEMBLE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH\r\nTHREE DAYS.  DISSIPATION IS DELAYED IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY TRACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.7N 126.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N 128.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N 131.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 135.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 138.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 18 2006\r\n \r\nHECTOR HAS GONE THROUGH A CYCLE OF WARMING THEN RE-COOLING CLOUD\r\nTOPS AROUND THE EYE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AND RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BEEN OPEN ON THE WEST SIDE.  THE\r\nOVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS REMAINED THE SAME SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY WITH NEARLY UNCHANGED DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM TAFB AND\r\n5.0 FROM SAB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED\r\nAT 85 KT.\r\n\r\nHECTOR ONLY HAS ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS LEFT OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM\r\nWATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING\r\nAFTER CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM...BARELY HANGING ON AS A HURRICANE\r\nIN 24 HOURS THEN WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION BY 72 HOURS.  THIS RATE\r\nOF WEAKENING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND IS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RATE OF WEAKENING OBSERVED\r\nDURING HURRICANES BUD AND CARLOTTA EARLIER THIS SEASON WHEN THEY\r\nMOVED OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE SAME VICINITY.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A MORE OR LESS STRAIGHT TRACK WITH A\r\nMOTION OF 290/11.  THIS TRAJECTORY WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS AS HECTOR MOVES TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN 125W AND 145W.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY\r\nCLUSTERED WITHIN THIS TIME FRAME.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE\r\nA BIT PRIMARILY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING NOTED ABOVE...IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTHAT HECTOR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY\r\nTHE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 17.0N 128.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.6N 129.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.4N 131.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.3N 132.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 134.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 136.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 21.5N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THIS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING OF\r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS...WITH TOPS TO -80C SEEN EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM TAFB...\r\nAND REMAIN 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  BASED\r\nON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 90 KT.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/11.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE LAST PACKAGE.  HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 125-145W DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.  THE GFDN AND LBAR CALL FOR HECTOR TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE STORM REMAINS STRONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HECTOR WILL\r\nHAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY 72 HR FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO BECOME\r\nPREDOMINANT...WITH THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE\r\nNOGAPS AND THE GFDL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nHECTOR SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM WITHIN\r\n12 HR...AND MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THEREAFTER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nCAUSE FASTER WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nDEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.  NONE OF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HECTOR TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY\r\n120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR DISSIPATION BY\r\nTHAT TIME.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 17.4N 129.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 18.9N 132.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 19.6N 133.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 20.3N 135.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N 137.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006\r\n\r\nSIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED\r\nOVERNIGHT WITH A LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE.  AN AQUA PASS AT 1030 UTC\r\nSHOWS THE EYEWALL OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME\r\nINDICATION FROM THE LOW CLOUD LINES THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED\r\nCONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT.  HECTOR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH LONGER\r\nTHAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LONGER TRACK OVER WARMER WATER\r\nAND LESS SHEAR THAN FORECAST.  A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE\r\nLATER TODAY AS SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AND SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  THE\r\nWEAKENING COULD BE A LOT FASTER TOMORROW AS SSTS DROP BELOW 24C AND\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE\r\nABOVE SHIPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIAGNOSING TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE\r\nNEAR-TERM REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...290/10... AND\r\nTHE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE MOVING\r\nA LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN RECENTLY SEEN.  MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET\r\nREMAIN THE NORTH/SOUTH OUTLIERS.. THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK HAS\r\nWORKED OUT BETTER AS OF LATE.  AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS A LEFTWARD\r\nTURN IS FORESEEN DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SHALLOW NATURE.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN BETWEEN\r\nTHE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.7N 130.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.2N 133.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.9N 134.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006\r\n \r\nHECTOR'S OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES RECENTLY SHOW A FAINT EYE\r\nBREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nPASS AT 1515 UTC SHOWED A SMALL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER AND\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIRMING A SUSPICION FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING. THIS STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF\r\nINCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS SEEN IN CIMSS ANALYSES...AND\r\nDRY STABLE AIR WHICH HAS INVADED THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nSTORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT...IN BETWEEN\r\nTHE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS OUR USUAL\r\nOPERATIONAL PRACTICE FOR WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF\r\nTHE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKER DEMISE TOMORROW AFTER HECTOR\r\nENCOUNTERS SSTS LESS THAN 24C AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN\r\n25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS.  \r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1500 UTC WERE VERY\r\nHELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING AN INITIAL MOTION...295/11. RECENT MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MOST\r\nMODELS CONTINUING ON A TRACK AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE UNAFFECTED BY A WEAK BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WHILE THE NOGAPS BARRELS THE HURRICANE IN A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFASHION.  WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONE...TRENDING SOUTH STILL SEEMS TO\r\nBE A GOOD IDEA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ON THE BASIS OF A\r\n1421 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS GENERAL WIND STRUCTURE IS CARRIED\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HECTOR'S LIFE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 18.3N 131.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006\r\n \r\nHECTOR'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE EYE IS\r\nNO LONGER DISCERNIBLE IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN\r\nFACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING ASYMMETRIC DUE TO\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS NOTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE SLOWLY DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 70 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING\r\nSINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO\r\nAN AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWEAKENS HECTOR TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATES THE\r\nSYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES\r\nA SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAS HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD WITH THIS\r\nSTORM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 19.0N 132.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.7N 133.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 134.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 21.2N 135.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 21.7N 137.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hector","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006\r\n\r\nAN ILL-DEFINED EYE WAS DETECTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES UP THROUGH\r\n0600 UTC BUT IT IS GONE NOW...PERHAPS FOR GOOD.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...HOWEVER BASED ON THE\r\nDETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.  \r\nHECTOR IS NOW OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR ON HECTOR.  GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nHECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH\r\nDISSIPATION NOT LONG THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 9 KT AS HECTOR NEARS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL FLOW....AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL\r\nBEND TO THE LEFT.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND THE\r\nNCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS OVER\r\nHECTOR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 19.4N 132.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006\r\n\r\nA HELPFUL TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 1020 UTC SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF HECTOR HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER\r\nPREVIOUSLY SEEN ON THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY... REQUIRING A SMALL\r\nSOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL POSITION.  RECENT SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES SHOW THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTION\r\nHAS SHIFTED EXCLUSIVELY TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE IMPACTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB/TAFB ARE DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT.  A FAST WEAKENING IS LIKELY\r\nDUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR... COLD SSTS DROPPING BELOW 24C...\r\nAND PLENTY OF STABLE AIR AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE... CALLING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE\r\nTOMORROW.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ABOUT 300/9.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT A DAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES MOST\r\nOF ITS DEEP CONVECTION.  THEREAFTER A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS\r\nANTICIPATED AS HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ONTO A\r\nSTRONG VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM FOR TOO LONG... LEADING TO A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nSTAY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO A\r\nCOMPOSITE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE... BAM SHALLOW... AND THE UKMET.  THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TURN COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST IF THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 19.8N 133.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 134.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 21.3N 136.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A PARTIALLY-\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DISORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO PLUMMET AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT. A RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY\r\nDUE TO COLD WATER... HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. ALL SIGNS POINT TO\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING SOMETIME TOMORROW... AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. \r\n\r\nHECTOR IS MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ABOUT AT 9\r\nKT... AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN ABOUT THIS FASHION FOR A DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER A LEFT TURN IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING MUCH\r\nWEAKER AND BECOMING STEERED BY ONLY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... STILL\r\nDISCOUNTING THE MODELS THAT KEEP HECTOR AS A POWERFUL SYSTEM DURING\r\nTHE PERIOD... AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM SHALLOW WHICH OFTEN \r\nHANDLES THESE TYPES OF WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEMS\r\nEFFECTIVELY.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 20.4N 134.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 21.1N 135.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.9N 136.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006\r\n \r\nMID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION MADE IT\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF HECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...\r\nWITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A LATE ARRIVING AQUA MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8 KT. HECTOR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES A WEAK\r\nAND SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...\r\nBUT TURNS BACK WESTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.\r\n\r\nCLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nDECREASING AS A RESULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40\r\nKT. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AT A STEADY RATE DUE TO COLD WATER\r\nAND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 20.9N 134.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION THAT HAD EARLIER BEEN CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BENN SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE SOUTH...MAKING LOCATION\r\nAND MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE LOCATION AND STRUCTURE ANALYSIS\r\nWAS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WIND RETRIEVALS.  WHILE SOME CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS TO THE NORTH...THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE.  WITH\r\nWARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...TROPICAL\r\nSTORM HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nREMAND LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE AVAILABLE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOW\r\n310/6 KT...AND SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nBASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT\r\nSLOWER AND MORE TO THE LEFT AS HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AS A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE 12-FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT RADII WERE BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nOUTPUT FROM THE WAVEWATCH III MODEL WHICH VERIFIED WELL WITH A SHIP\r\nOBSERVATION 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF HECTOR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 21.2N 135.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 21.8N 136.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N 136.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.6N 137.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 23.0N 139.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 23.6N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n\r\nHECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF\r\nCONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER... AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM ALOFT COULD EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN\r\nTO THE SURFACE IN THE CONVECTION... SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 35\r\nKT.  DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HOURS DUE\r\nTO THE STORM CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF COLD WATER AND HIGH SHEAR.  \r\n\r\nTHE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT SOME MODELS HAD FORECAST FOR DAYS\r\nFINALLY MATERIALIZED LATE YESTERDAY... PERHAPS DUE TO AN\r\nINTERACTION OF HECTOR WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE STORM.  HOWEVER... NOW ALMOST ALL OF THE BETTER MODELS\r\nHAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...\r\nSHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  GIVEN THAT BAM SHALLOW IS STILL NORTH OF THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NORTH OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND BAM SHALLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 21.8N 135.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 22.2N 136.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 22.6N 137.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.9N 138.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 23.2N 140.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nA 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT HECTOR WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WITH SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40 KT VECTORS...AND\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...THERE IS VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AND HECTOR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23C WATERS.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nSTRONG AND NOT FORECAST TO ABATE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6.  HECTOR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MAINTAINING\r\nENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO DEFLECT THE MOTION TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nDECAY...A LEFTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE...WITH MOST OF THE OTHER\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING A MORE ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 22.3N 135.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 22.8N 136.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 23.3N 137.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 23.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 24.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nMODERATE CONVECTION IN HECTOR IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...THOUGH IT IS DISPLACED OVER 100 NMI FROM HECTOR'S\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN DEFERENCE\r\nTO THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 40 KT\r\nUNCONTAMINATED VECTORS.  HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE\r\nAIR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6 AS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT HECTOR WILL\r\nMAKE THE TURN...FINALLY...TO THE WEST AS IT DECAYS AND MOVES WITH\r\nTHE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST ON THE\r\nNORTH SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS BUT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTIONS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 22.6N 135.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N 136.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 23.2N 138.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 23.4N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 142.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nAN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0336Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 0251Z 37 GHZ\r\nAMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR IS FINALLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOVEMENT HAS\r\nSLOWED AND...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE DATA... THE\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A\r\nSMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...PRESUMABLY\r\nHELPING TO MAINTAIN THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY.  IN FACT...THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS CLOSE TO 40 KT. \r\nHOWEVER NOW THAT HECTOR'S LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING\r\nDECOUPLED...IT HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  HECTOR SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DUE\r\nTO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-H TRACK FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n285/4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THEN CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD AND FASTER MOTION IN CONSIDERATION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND STEERING BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 22.4N 136.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 22.6N 137.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 22.9N 139.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 23.1N 141.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nIS WEAKENING AND HECTOR APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NOTHING\r\nBUT A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  NONETHELESS...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nFROM 0336Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING MARGINAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35\r\nKT.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT HECTOR WILL BE UNABLE TO REGENERATE\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nSPIN DOWN. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE LOW COMPLETELY DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.    \r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS APPEARS TO BE TRENDING FASTER...AS\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMES DETACHED FROM WHAT IS LEFT OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. THIS\r\nTREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  HECTOR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 22.8N 137.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 22.9N 138.2W    30 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 140.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 23.1N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nHECTOR CONTINUES TO CLING TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AS A 1444 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER SSTS OF\r\n23C...AND IT IS PRODUCING ONLY A LIMITED AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION\r\nMORE THAN 160 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nDISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS...AND THIS FORECAST DOES THE\r\nSAME AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 280/6...AND HECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEED BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATION.  THIS TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 22.9N 137.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 23.2N 138.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 23.6N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  30...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n\r\nCORRECTED AWIPS HEADER\r\n \r\nHECTOR HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO\r\n24 HOURS...AND HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7.  DISSIPATING HECTOR SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE LOW\r\nLAYER STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.  \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nHECTOR.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND THE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST\r\nBRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 23.0N 138.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 23.1N 139.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 23.3N 140.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-21 18:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n1100 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW\r\nHUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER-ORGANIZED.  CURVED BANDING FEATURES AROUND THE CENTER HAVE\r\nBECOME BETTER-DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING.  A\r\nSPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1645 UTC FROM TAFB WAS 2.0... 30\r\nKT AND SUPPORTS INITIATING ADVISORIES.  STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\nAPPEARS LIKELY WITH LITTLE FORECAST SHEAR AND WARM WATERS ABOVE\r\n29C.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAN THE GFDL WHICH TAKES 4 DAYS TO\r\nMAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/9.   MIDDLE-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STRONG FOR\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... FORCING THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THIS GENERAL SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GUIDANCE...THOUGH THEY ARE SOMEWHAT CLUSTERED IN TWO\r\nGROUPS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW MORE RIDGING THAN OTHER MODELS AND\r\nARE FASTER AND MORE TO THE WEST.  THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER TO THE EAST BUT STILL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AT THIS\r\nTIME...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO LEAN ON ONE CLUSTER MORE THAN THE\r\nOTHER SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1800Z 12.8N 102.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.3N 103.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 14.3N 105.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 109.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 24.0N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED BAND FORMING IN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE SYSTEM ALONG WITH PLENTY OF\r\nBANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  A 29 KT WIND REPORT WAS\r\nALSO RECEIVED FROM SHIP ELTZ7 A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION. WITH THE IMPROVING\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DT NUMBERS AT 2.5 OR ABOVE... AT LEAST\r\n35 KT... THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IS BORN.\r\n \r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM ILEANA IS EXPANDING IN ALL DIRECTIONS...\r\nESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGES INDICATE AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AXIS LIES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM PROVIDING EASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW... AND CONSEQUENTLY LIGHT SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST ILEANA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE... A\r\nFAVORABLE SPOT FOR FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION... RATHER WARM WATERS GREATER THAN 29C\r\nALSO LIE ALONG THAT TRACK.  THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THESE\r\nCONDUCIVE PARAMETERS BY INTENSIFYING ILEANA TO HURRICANE-STRENGTH\r\nIN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS AND 88 KT IN 60 HOURS... JUST ABOUT AS\r\nFAST AN INTENSIFICATION AS THE STATISTICAL MODEL CAN PRODUCE. THIS\r\nPROJECTION MAY NOT BE UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE EASTERN PACIFIC RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX WHICH SHOWS A 73% CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE\r\nINCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nSHIPS AND SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWED BY A MORE MODEST STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. WEAKENING IS\r\nSHOWN AFTER 72 HOURS BECAUSE OF THE SYSTEM PASSING THE 26C\r\nISOTHERM. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL HEADING IS ABOUT 300 AT 10 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SMALL DISAGREEMENTS.  THE GFDL...\r\nWHICH HAD BEEN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE... HAS SHIFTED\r\nLEFTWARD... LIKE THE GFS.  THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS THOUGH ALL MODELS STAY OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. \r\nSINCE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONSISTENCY AND\r\nREPRESENTATIONS OF THE CYCLONE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... A TOUCH SOUTH OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ENLARGED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LARGE\r\nSIZE OF THE SYSTEM DOCUMENTED FROM SATELLITE AND SHIP REPORTS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 12.8N 103.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.6N 104.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.7N 106.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.9N 108.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 17.3N 110.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N 118.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C WITHIN A DEVELOPING CDO.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE ALL AT T2.5.  GIVEN THE NEW CDO AND\r\nCONTINUED BANDING FEATURES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 40 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND GALE\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO EXTEND OUT PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 150 NMI\r\nON THE NORTH SIDE...THOUGH LITTLE IN SITU DATA HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE.\r\n\r\nILEANA IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED SUGGESTING A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOVEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AT DAYS FOUR AND\r\nFIVE...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW IS PREDICTED TO DEVELOP WEST\r\nOF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY THE GFS AND A WEAKER FEATURE IS FORECAST\r\nBY THE NOGAPS.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME THAT\r\nTHE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO CAUSE\r\nILEANA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE VORTEX INITIALIZED WELL. \r\n\r\nALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ILEANA TO\r\nPOSSIBLY RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN -- VERY LOW WIND SHEAR...HIGH\r\nSSTS...LARGE AMOUNTS OF LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AND\r\nINCREASINGLY IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE FEATURES.  THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nRAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AT\r\nLEAST 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THUS\r\nILEANA IS PREDICTED TO REACH HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\nCONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE BEYOND 72 HOURS AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM APPROACHES COOLER SSTS AND MORE STABLE AIR...SO\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING THOUGH...IF\r\nILEANA REACHED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 13.3N 104.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.1N 106.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.1N 108.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.6N 110.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N 112.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 118.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n\r\nILEANA'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED WITH\r\nBETTER-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER THE COVERAGE AND\r\nINTENSITY OF CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS NOT INCREASED.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT...45 KT...AND 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND AFWA RESPECTIVELY.  ALSO...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS\r\nYIELD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT AN 0308 UTC\r\nSSM/I IMAGE SUGGESTED A WELL-ORGANIZED...AND PERHAPS\r\nSTRONGER...SYSTEM.  HOWEVER THERE IS NO OPERATIONALLY-ACCEPTED\r\nTECHNIQUES FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY FROM SUCH IMAGERY.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...AT 45 KT. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUCH AS SSTS... VERTICAL SHEAR...MOIST\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND INSTABILITY...ALL APPEAR TO BE\r\nPROPITIOUS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING UP TO 48 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...DECREASING SSTS ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 295/12.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE GFS PREDICTS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  BY THAT TIME...IT\r\nIS ANTICIPATED THAT ILEANA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND NOT RESPOND\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS RATHER\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC FORECAST.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 14.0N 105.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.3N 109.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 18.8N 113.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 119.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nDURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED WITHIN\r\nTHE LARGE CDO FEATURE.  SINCE THIS WARM SPOT IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER...THIS COULD BE THE EARLY INDICATION OF EYE\r\nFORMATION. STILL...IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO KNOW FOR SURE IF\r\nTHIS IS AN EYE FORMING AND THERE IS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO\r\nHELP.  AS A RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DIVERGED\r\nSOMEWHAT AND ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nAFWA...AND 63 KT USING THE UW CIMSS ADT.  UNDER THE\r\nCIRCUMSTANCES...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES APPEARS BEST AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF AN EYE IS INDEED FORMING...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AND SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS COULD BE LOW.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER\r\nCOOLER WATERS RESULTING IN WEAKENING.  THE NEW FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nABOVE THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13 AND THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST OR UNDERLYING REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE AT THE SOUTHERNMOST SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE\r\nNORTHERNMOST MODELS.  SINCE THE LATTER MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A\r\nBETTER ANALYSIS OF THE CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHE RIGHT SIDE OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET SOLUTIONS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nRESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 14.8N 106.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N 108.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.1N 110.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 112.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 19.7N 114.7W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.6N 117.8W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.5N 120.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH RECENT MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT ILEANA IS FORMING AN EYE...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY 65 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.\r\nACCORDINGLY...ILEANA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...THE 5TH OF THE\r\n2006 SEASON...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  ILEANA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A VERY WEAK\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\nADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE\r\nANTICYCLONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE HURRICANE.  TO\r\nFULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS ENVIRONMENT...ILEANA NEEDS ONLY TO\r\nCONSOLIDATE ITS INNER CORE...WHICH APPEARS UNDERWAY.  ALL OF THESE\r\nFACTORS FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES ILEANA APPROACHING CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY WITHIN 48\r\nHOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...THINGS GET VERY COMPLICATED GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THEREFORE THE UNDERLYING SST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES ILEANA WILL MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS RESULTING IN STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nILEANA IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN ESTIMATED\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 300/14.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THEIR\r\nSOLUTIONS...WITH THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BEING THE DEPTH AND\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.  SINCE THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN DO NOT HAVE A REASONABLE REPRESENTATION OF THE VORTEX...THOSE\r\nSOLUTIONS ARE DEEMED LESS LIKELY.  THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS...\r\nBECAUSE THEY DEPICT A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX...APPEAR TO\r\nPROVIDE BETTER SOLUTIONS DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.  THEREAFTER...THE UKMET STALLS\r\nTHE CYCLONE WHILE THE GFDL TURNS IT NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nNOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO BE PICKED UP BY THIS TROUGH. INSTEAD...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALBEIT\r\nSLOWER...ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS GREATER\r\nTHAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECASTS AT THESE LONGER RANGES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 15.8N 108.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.8N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.2N 111.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.3N 113.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N 115.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 21.6N 117.4W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 24.0N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 22 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT THAT ILEANA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED 30 NMI EYE THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE WALL\r\nNOW COMPLETELY CLOSED OFF OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY REVEALS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND AFWA...77\r\nKT FROM TAFB...AND A 77 KT 6 HOUR AVG FROM THE CIMSS ADT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNTOUCHED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR\r\nAN INCREASE TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS BASED OFF OF A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL MODELS...AND THE RECENT SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE\r\nCORE STRUCTURE AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND THE\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATE FURTHER STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...AS ILEANA MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/14.  THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nCONTINUE TO INDICATE A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER ILEANA...WITH A MOTION\r\nMORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER EASTERLY FLOW\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST FROM MEXICO.  THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A SOLUTION\r\nSUGGESTING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS...TOWARD A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. \r\nAFTERWARD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS...LARGE SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION\r\nIN FORWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH LESS EMPHASIS\r\nON THE GFS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 16.6N 109.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.6N 110.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 113.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 20.7N 116.4W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n \r\nILEANA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING\r\nHURRICANE.  ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE BECOMING BETTER\r\nDEFINED WHILE EMBEDDED IN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND QUITE SYMMETRIC.  LATEST SUBJECTIVE\r\nAND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 100\r\nKT...I.E. A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE\r\nSCALE.   THERE IS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION...DURING WHICH TIME THE HURRICANE COULD ATTAIN CAT.\r\n4 STRENGTH.   THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LIGHT...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO BRING\r\nABOUT WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...310/16... IS FASTER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. \r\nTHIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY DEEP-LAYER\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WELL-DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE AREA\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A WEAKENING OF THIS HIGH AS A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS TRACK AND ALSO\r\nSIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  LESS EMPHASIS IS BEING PLACED ON\r\nTHE GFS TRACK...AS THAT MODEL HAS A FAR TOO WEAK INITIALIZATION OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE.  THEREFORE LITTLE\r\nMOTION IS SHOWN IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 17.5N 110.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.7N 112.4W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.9N 114.4W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 20.7N 116.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 21.3N 117.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 119.2W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 120.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FIORINO\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OR THE\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. \r\nASSUMING THAT THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION TREND IS CONTINUING...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT. HAVING SAID\r\nTHAT...THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE COULD BE BEGINNING...WITH BREAKS IN THE INNER RING OF COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS AND HINTS OF AN OUTER RING DEVELOPING.  EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES TEND TO ARREST DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SHORT-TERM\r\nFOLLOWED BY SOME INTENSIFICATION.  WHILE FORECASTING SUCH INNER\r\nCORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IS DIFFICULT...ILEANA IS LOCATED WITHIN A\r\nSEEMINGLY OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ILEANA BECOMING A CATEGORY 4\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THESE\r\nFACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY...\r\nESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS TO SHOW A QUICKER DEMISE ONCE ILEANA REACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS. \r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.\r\nIT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nHAS COMMENCED.   ACCORDINGLY...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BOTH OF WHICH CONTINUE TO\r\nSUFFER FROM POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX STRENGTH AND\r\nSTRUCTURE...ARE FURTHER SOUTH SINCE THEY DO NOT RESPOND TO THE\r\nAMPLIFYING TROUGH BUT THOSE SOLUTIONS APPEAR LESS LIKELY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING MODELS\r\nAND REFLECTS ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nA NEARBY STATION AT SOCORRO ISLAND OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY \r\nREPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AT 1200 UTC.\r\nTHIS OBSERVATION WAS USEFUL IN ADJUSTING THE 34 KT WIND RADII\r\nINWARD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 18.1N 111.5W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 115.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.8N 116.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 21.3N 118.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 22.5N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ILEANA HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING\r\nTHE DAY.  HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO\r\nCOOL AGAIN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KT.  THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 AND 101 KT\r\nFROM UW CIMSS AND CIRA RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONALLY...DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED WITH 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...\r\n102 KT FROM TAFB...AND 122 KT FROM THE UW CIMSS ADT.  WHILE\r\nCYCLONES AT THIS INTENSITY SOMETIMES DEVELOP A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nSTRUCTURE...THIS HAS NOT YET BEEN SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.\r\nDESPITE AN APPARENT HALT TO INTENSIFICATION...ILEANA HAS ABOUT\r\n12-24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A LESS CONDUCIVE\r\nENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.  ACCORDINGLY...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DEMISE THEREAFTER.  IN\r\nFACT...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 305/13.  THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WEAKENS AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nDIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE SLOWDOWN COULD\r\nBE ESPECIALLY PRONOUNCED BEYOND 48 HOURS AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW WILL COLLAPSE AT THE SAME TIME THE CYCLONE IS RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKENING.  THIS EVOLUTION IS CREATING DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AS THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS DIFFER NOT ONLY IN THE LARGE\r\nSCALE PATTERN...BUT ALSO THE DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...WHICH WARRANTS A TURN TO THE WEST WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nSURPRISINGLY...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO\r\nSUFFER FROM POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE VORTEX STRENGTH AND\r\nSTRUCTURE...RESULTING IN A TRACK MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANY OF THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A NEARBY STATION AT SOCORRO ISLAND...OPERATED BY THE\r\nMEXICAN NAVY...INDICATED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 51 KT WITH GUSTS\r\nTO 66 KT AROUND 1500 UTC.  SIMILARLY...AN 1800 UTC REPORT FROM SHIP\r\nDGGV IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS USEFUL IN DEFINING THE RADIUS\r\nOF 12 FT SEAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 19.0N 112.7W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.8N 114.2W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 116.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.1N 117.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 118.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.2N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 23 2006\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SLIGHTLY COOLER INNER\r\nCORE CLOUD TOPS THIS EVENING...AND A MORE DISTINCT...LESS\r\nRAGGED...30 NMI EYE.  WATER VAPORY IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED\r\nOUTFLOW JET OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHERE THE COLDER CLOUD\r\nTOPS RESIDE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES...WITH A CIRA AMSU-A ESTIMATE AT 102 KT...AND AN ADT\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 117 KT FROM CIMSS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS AT \r\n105 KT.  THERE STILL IS A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW OF FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND WITHIN A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE \r\n...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE A\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST COMMENCES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/12.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OVER THE\r\nEXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE PACIFIC COAST.  THE\r\n18Z GFDL RUN HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON IT'S RAPID NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION INTO THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS...NOW INDICATING A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEYOND DAY 3.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nCLOSELY TO THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST BY DAY 4...REFLECTING THE LOW-LAYER FLOW\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE SOCORRO ISLAND\r\nOBSERVATION AND A CIRA/NESDIS AMSU-A TC SIZE ESTIMATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 19.4N 113.5W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.1N 114.9W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.7N 116.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 21.2N 117.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 21.6N 118.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 22.5N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW 95\r\nKT.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED.  0312Z 85 GHZ SSM/I MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL AS PART OF AN\r\nPOSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  HOWEVER, WE DO NOT EXPECT\r\nELENA TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND ALL\r\nINTENSITY AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nILEANA'S FORWARD SPEED HAS DECREASED...INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 300/9.  OUR TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nNORTH AND SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN DEFERENCE TO A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFDL, UKMO, NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME GIVEN THE LACK OF NEW OBSERVATIONS\r\nAND THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 19.9N 114.2W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.3N 116.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 21.8N 117.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 22.2N 118.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 120.1W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ILEANA IS NOW WEAKENING IN\r\nEARNEST...WITH RAPIDLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT AND IS BASED ON\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND T NUMBERS FROM THE\r\nVARIOUS AGENCIES. PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING WITH ILEANA ULTIMATELY\r\nBECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGRADATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD SIGNATURE.\r\n \r\nILEANA'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\nACCORDINGLY...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nOVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SPEED.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW BY DAY 3...RESULTING IN\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY...AND THEN TRENDS TOWARD THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM TRACK LATER IN THE FORECAST.  THIS RESULTS IN AN OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE BEYOND DAY 3.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 20.5N 114.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.2N 116.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.4N 118.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.8N 119.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SUGGESTS THAT ILEANA HAS MADE A BIT OF A\r\nCOMEBACK TODAY...AS CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR THE CENTER. THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF CI AND T\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AODT NUMBERS THAT HAVE INCREASED DUE\r\nTO THE IMPROVED SATELLITE REPRESENTATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nHELD A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 12\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE...PRESUMABLY TEMPORARY ...INCREASE IN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS\r\nAS THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. ILEANA SHOULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH DISSIPATION SOON TO FOLLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW AND IS NOW 300/7. THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ILEANA FEELING THE\r\nEFFECTS OF THE BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE IT REMAINS A DEEP\r\nSYSTEM AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU...THROUGH 24 HOURS AND\r\nREFLECTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONU FOR DAY 2. BY\r\nDAY 3 A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST WAS INTRODUCED...SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REFLECTING THE SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF THE\r\nCONU AND GUNA CONSENSUS TRACKS...THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1351 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nAND A 1800 UTC OBSERVATION OF 40 KT FROM SHIP A8HR7 NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 20.8N 115.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.4N 116.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.1N 117.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 22.6N 119.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 22.7N 121.4W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 22.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 24 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.\r\nCIMSS ADT 6-HOURLY AVERAGED ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...CLOSE TO 100 KT.\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE\r\nWARMED ONCE AGAIN WITH DRY AIR ATTEMPTING TO WRAP INTO THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY\r\nLOWERED TO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ILEANA IS ON THE VERGE OF\r\nCROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WHICH COUPLED WITH THE WEAKINING NOTED\r\nIN SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS STEADY WEAKENING MAY BE CLOSE AT HAND.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...SHIPS AND FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS WITH\r\nDISSIPATION EXPECTED AT 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE. THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH ILEANA RESPONDING TO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE IT REMAINS A DEEP\r\nSYSTEM AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU/GUNA THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST WAS INTRODUCED WHICH\r\nREFLECTS THE SOUTHWARD TRENDS OF THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...GFDL AND\r\nSHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND AND 12 FOOT SEA RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON 0000 UTC OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS DILE AND A8HR7.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 21.2N 116.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 21.8N 116.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.3N 117.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 22.6N 118.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 120.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 22.0N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER COBB/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA HAS RESUMED THE WEAKENING PROCESS...AFTER\r\nMAINTAINING 80 KT IN THE PREVIOUS 12 HOURS.  ENHANCED IR AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED AND OPENED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...WITH REDUCED CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE.  THE OUTER\r\nEYEWALL RAINFALL STRUCTURE...DEPICTED IN THE 0405Z SSM/I 85 GHZ\r\nIMAGERY...IS REDUCED COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES.\r\n\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC FACTORS ARE CONTROLLING INTENSITY CHANGE...COOLER\r\nSST...LESS THAN 26C...AND DRY AIR INTRUSION INTO THE NORTHEAST\r\nSEMICIRCLE...DESPITE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  ILEANA IS FORECAST\r\nTO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AFTER 36 HOURS AND BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSTORM MOTION HAS BECOME MORE WESTWARD...CONSEQUENTLY, OUR TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS.  AS ILEANA\r\nBECOMES A DEPRESSION AT 48 HOURS, WE FAVOR THE ECMWF, GFS AND\r\nCANADIAN GEM SOLUTIONS.  THESE MODELS WERE INITIALIZED WITH A WEAK\r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE THAT MOVES WITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON AN\r\nEXCELLENT 0218Z QUIKSCAT PASS, TWO EXPERIMENTAL SATELLITE-BASED\r\nESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS, AND 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 21.3N 116.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 21.6N 117.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 118.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 22.1N 119.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 22.0N 120.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 21.6N 122.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nILEANA IS RETAINING GOOD STRUCTURE WITH A 20 NM WIDE EYE OBSERVED IN \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...CLOUDS TOPS AROUND THE \r\nCENTER CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WARM AND DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE\r\nDECREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH\r\nIS AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THIS\r\nAVERAGE IS TYPICALLY USED DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE WHEN CI\r\nNUMBERS ARE CONSTRAINED BY DVORAK RULES.  WITH VERY LITTLE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR FORECAST...ILEANA MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES \r\nOVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. IT IS FORECAST \r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/4 KT.  THE GFS WHICH\r\nINITIALIZED THE HURRICANE FAR TOO WEAK....SEEMS UNREASONABLE WITH\r\nITS ALMOST IMMEDIATE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT TRACKS SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWEST DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD.  THE FORECAST \r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A WESTWARD BEND LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE 12 FT SEA RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON EARLIER OBSERVATIONS \r\nFROM TWO SHIPS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 21.6N 116.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 22.1N 118.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 22.2N 119.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 22.2N 120.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO WARMING CLOUDS TOPS...ILEANA IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS\r\nSTRUCTURE WITH THE EYE BECOMING GRADUALLY LESS DEFINED. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT BASED AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK T\r\nAND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REASONING. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND ENTRAINS DRY STABLE AIR. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND BE DISSIPATED BY\r\n120 HR.\r\n\r\nILEANA HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nYIELDING A SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 320/5. A LONGER TERM MOTION\r\nOF 305/5 IS USED FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE.  IGNORING THE GFS\r\nAND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CONSENSUS-BASED TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT ILEANA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN WEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nSAME GENERAL REASONING AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON REPORTS FROM SHIP DGSR.  THE 34 KT WIND RADII\r\nWERE CONTRACTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT DATA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 22.0N 117.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 22.4N 117.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 22.8N 119.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 120.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 25 2006\r\n \r\nAN EYE WAS STILL BARELY APPARENT AT 00Z...AND DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS\r\nWERE STILL 4.0 WHICH SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT\r\n65 KT.  SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED\r\nAND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...SO ILEANA WILL PROBABLY\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM SHORTLY.  SSTS BENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE\r\nNEAR 25 CELSIUS AND WILL CONTINUE TO COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE A STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nWITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS\r\n310/6.  A TURN TO THE LEFT OR WEST IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE\r\nEVENTUAL REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT UNTIL\r\nIT DISSIPATES IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 22.3N 117.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 22.7N 118.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 119.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 23.2N 122.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n\r\nONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF ILEANA\r\nTONIGHT. IN ADDITION A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 50\r\nKT IN THE CIRCULATION... WHICH MIGHT BE REASONABLE GIVEN A LACK OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO ATTENUATE THE MICROWAVE SIGNAL. USING THE\r\nQUIKSCAT ESTIMATE AND A BLEND OF THE DVORAK ESIMATES... THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 55 KT. A CONTINUED SPINDOWN OF THE\r\nVORTEX IS EXPECTED DUE TO SUB 25C SSTS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS SHOULD\r\nOCCUR IN A COUPLE DAYS... IF NOT SOONER... AS THE CYCLONE PASSES\r\nOVER EVEN COOLER WATER. \r\n\r\nTHE MUCH-ANTICIPATED LEFTWARD TURN APPEARS BE OCCURRING... WITH A\r\nMOTION OF ABOUT 295/6. A MOTION MORE TO THE WEST IS FORECAST IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES WEAKER AND IS\r\nSTEERED PREDOMINATELY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE LOW SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE IN A WESTWARD FASHION FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION\r\nAROUND THE 72-96 HOUR TIME FRAME. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 22.5N 118.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.8N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 23.1N 120.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 23.4N 123.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.5N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...HOWEVER DATA-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT\r\nHOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AS ILEANA\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 295/7...HOWEVER THIS IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN DUE TO THE USUAL DIFFICULTY OF LOCATING THE CENTER IN\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AND\r\nILEANA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 22.8N 119.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 23.1N 120.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 23.4N 123.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 124.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.5N 127.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ILEANA IS\r\nSEPARATING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS\r\nSIMLIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE\r\nDAY. AN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS\r\n295/5.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nEXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AS ILEANA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL ITS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE CROSSING THE 24C ISOTHERM\r\nTONIGHT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR STEADY WEAKENING\r\nFOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nGUIDANCE.  ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 22.8N 119.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 22.9N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 23.1N 121.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 23.2N 123.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 23.2N 124.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 26 2006\r\n \r\nAS DEPICTED BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...ILEANA HAS BEEN\r\nDEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS.  ILEANA IS\r\nCONTINUING ITS SPINNING DOWN PROCESS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITIES AND DATA T-NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\nDUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND SINCE ILEANA IS MOVING OVER COOL\r\n24 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY\r\nWEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 295/5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BENDING THE TRACK\r\nWESTWARD AS ILEANA BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 23.2N 119.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 23.5N 120.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 23.6N 122.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ileana","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n\r\nANY DEEP CONVECTION IS TOTALLY GONE WITH ONLY THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL\r\nREMAINING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS\r\nAND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE\r\nALREADY TRANSITIONED TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BUT WE WILL KEEP\r\nADVISORIES GOING FOR ONE MORE CYCLE.  ILEANA WILL LIKELY TRANSITION\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY DUE TO CONTINUED COLD WATER\r\nINFLUENCES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE\r\nVORTEX.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED ON THE NORTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 23.4N 120.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 23.6N 121.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 23.7N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 23.7N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ileana","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP102006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 27 2006\r\n \r\nILEANA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 18 HOURS...\r\nAND HAS BECOME A DIFFUSE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 285/7.  DISSIPATING ILEANA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN\r\nA GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nILEANA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST\r\nBRANCH...UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 AND WMO HEADER FZPN03 KNHC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 23.6N 120.9W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 23.8N 122.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 23.9N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2006\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED FOR AWIPS BIN NUMBER IN FIRST LINE ABOVE...\r\n\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEEN 2.5 OR 35 KT\r\nAT BOTH 06 AND 12Z AND BANDING IN THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SINCE\r\n12Z.  THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME AS A 30 KT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE CLOSE TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AT 305/8...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\nDUE THE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES.  DESPITE\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL IN\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO.  THE RIDGE IS NOT\r\nANTICIPATED TO BE VERY STRONG FROM 36 TO 96 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nPARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST AT THOSE TIMES.  AT DAY 5...IT IS\r\nANTICIPATED THAT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEND BACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM AFTER 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nDUE TO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\nSHOULD OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER DAY 3...THE WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES DROP AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE...\r\nSUGGESTING WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO LA\r\nFORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 13.2N  95.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 13.6N  97.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 14.1N  99.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006\r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ON THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH\r\nTAFB PROVIDING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 OR 35 KT AND SAB GIVING 3.0\r\nOR 45 KT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE TWO AT 40 KT AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND\r\nRADII ARE UNCERTAIN...BUT ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 NMI IN THE RIGHT\r\nSEMICIRCLE. \r\n\r\nSCATTER IN THE POSITION ESTIMATES HAS DECREASED AS ALL AGENCIES ARE\r\nWITHIN 25 NMI OF EACH OTHER.  THE CURRENT POSITION WAS CORROBORATED\r\nWITH A TRMM PASS AT 1456Z WITH WELL-PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BANDS. \r\nMOTION IS NOW MORE ACCURATELY ASSESSED AT 285/7...RATHER THAN THE\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOHN SHOULD\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.  ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A\r\nMID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR AT THIS TIME TO HAVE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON JOHN'S MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS MOST\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AS BOTH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nDO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE ACCURATELY ANALYZED JOHN.\r\n \r\nALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SUGGEST CONTINUED\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...GFDL AND\r\nFSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS ALL BRING THE SYSTEM UP TO A\r\nCATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN THREE DAYS.  WHILE THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWN HERE SUGGESTS JOHN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36\r\nHOURS...THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES\r\nTHAT JOHN MAY REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SOONER THAN INDICATED.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY DAY FIVE DUE TO COOLER SSTS\r\nAND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...EXCEPT TO SHOW\r\nFASTER WEAKENING AT DAY FIVE.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF JOHN'S TRACK TO THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...INTERESTS FROM ACAPULCO TO LA FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 13.4N  96.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 13.7N  97.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 14.1N  99.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 101.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.2N 103.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 28 2006\r\n \r\nJOHN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH VIGOROUS\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. IN FACT...THE\r\nLATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE MAY BE FORMING.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 AND 55 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT IS SET\r\nAT THE HIGH END OF THIS RANGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE UW-CIMSS RAW ADT\r\nVALUES BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVE SATELLITE APPEARANCE.  JOHN\r\nAPPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A NEAR OPTIMAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS JOHN\r\nBECOMING AT CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL INDICATES A 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRING\r\nJOHN CLOSE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/06 IS BASED ON A RECENT AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE FIX AT 1937 UTC.  JOHN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING ON\r\nA GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED AS JOHN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nWITH THE GFDL BEING ON THE FAR RIGHT OR EAST SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nSUITE AND THE GFS BEING ON THE FAR LEFT OR WEST SIDE.  THE GFS\r\nANALYSIS OF JOHN APPEARS MUCH TOO WEAK AND SHALLOW...RESULTING IN\r\nA DUE WEST MOTION INITIALLY.  THIS SOLUTION APPEARS LESS\r\nLIKELY...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL MODEL.  \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS JOHN PARALLELING THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE\r\nTRACK TO THE COAST AND THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 13.9N  97.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 14.3N  98.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N  99.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 15.5N 101.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 16.3N 103.4W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 19.4N 108.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 22.0N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH AN\r\nEXPANDING CDO OVER THE CENTER.  IN FACT...A 0207 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE \r\nOVERPASS DETECTED A SMALL EYE FEATURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nCONTINUE TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT...A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES DUE TO THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN THE\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY.  JOHN APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION AND THE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS VERY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS JOHN BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48-60\r\nHOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND \r\nWAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATE IN \r\nTHE FORECAST...AS JOHN APPROACHES COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED BUT AT A SLOWER RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/06. JOHN IS FORECAST\r\nCONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXPECTED TO\r\nBUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THERE IS A LITTLE LESS SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IT CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW JOHN PARALLELING THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.  AS JOHN STRENGTHENS THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WIND RADII ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.  THE WATCH AREA MAY NEED\r\nTO BE EXPANDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY AND INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 13.9N  97.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.2N  98.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.8N 100.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.7N 102.4W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.9N 104.4W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 108.3W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n\r\nJOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...AND FIRST LIGHT\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE AND AN OBSCURED\r\nEYE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP.  THESE FEATURES ARE ALSO APPARENT ON\r\nA RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM 1156 UTC.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AND 75 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF TWO AND IS SET AT 70 KT.  JOHN IS\r\nNOW THE SIXTH HURRICANE OF THE EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  JOHN\r\nIS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS FOR\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES\r\nJOHN TO A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS\r\nCLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN THE LATER\r\nPERIODS...THE GFDL MODEL WEAKENS JOHN SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE\r\nPROXIMITY OF IT'S TRACK FORECAST TO LAND.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS THE HURRICANE OVER WATER THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE IN DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A RESULT OF COOLER\r\nWATERS.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.  JOHN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.  MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL ANTICIPATES THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE\r\nFURTHER TO THE EAST ALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE CLOSER TO THE\r\nWEST COAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL\r\nAS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN...THE WIND RADII\r\nHAVE BEEN EXPANDED.  THIS HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO\r\nADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 14.3N  99.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N 100.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.6N 102.2W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.7N 104.3W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 18.2N 106.2W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.5N 110.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N 112.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n \r\nJOHN HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TODAY AND A PINHOLE EYE IS\r\nNOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  24 HOURS AGO THE CYCLONE WAS A\r\n40 KT TROPICAL STORM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS\r\nSET AT 100 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE LIMITED TO DATA T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 OR 90 KT DUE\r\nTO RESTRICTIONS IN THE TECHNIQUE...BUT RAW DATA T-NUMBERS GIVE\r\nESTIMATES CLOSER TO 6.0 OR 115 KT. THERE ARE NO APPARENT\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH MAKES JOHN A CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS...AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A STRONG\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE IS\r\nSTEERED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO.  BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nSTILL FORECAST THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE TO BE FARTHER EAST\r\nALLOWING THE HURRICANE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND TAKE THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST\r\nTRACK RESULTING FROM A STRONGER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nFOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONU CLOSELY. \r\n \r\nTHE CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF JOHN AND A COUPLE OF SHIP REPORTS\r\nHAVE RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII.  THIS HAS PROMPTED\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO ADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ONCE\r\nAGAIN.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 14.4N  99.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 101.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.0N 103.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N 104.8W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 18.8N 106.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n \r\nJOHN'S EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR NOW.\r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY OBSCURED DURING THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH ONLY A RELATIVE WARM SPOT VISIBLE IN RECENT INFRARED \r\nIMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  GIVEN THE RESTRICTIONS OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nAND RAW DATA T-NUMBERS THAT REMAIN NEAR 115 KT...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT.  INNER CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES MAY BE\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR THE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND \r\nTHERE ARE NO OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS TO PREVENT FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS JOHN TO MOVE INLAND OVER\r\nMEXICO RESULTING IN RAPID WEAKENING AFTER 24 HOURS...HOWEVER SINCE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER WATER JOHN IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nJOHN HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 300/10 DURING\r\nTHE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JOHN\r\nCONTINUING ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE GFS \r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE A WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nRESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL CONTINUES\r\nTO LIE ALONG THE FAR RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE...TAKING JOHN\r\nINLAND OVER MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nINITIAL MOTION...THE EASTWARD TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nAND THE PERSISTENCE OF THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED \r\nCLOSER TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS.  THIS REQUIRES\r\nTHE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE EXISTS IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...\r\nRESULTING IN A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE ECMWF AND THE GFDL\r\nSHOW LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...ALLOWING A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN CONSIDERATION OF THE GFDL AND\r\nECMWF BUT STILL SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  IT SHOULD NOTED THAT\r\nTHERE IS GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST AT\r\nTHE LATER PERIODS...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND POSSIBLE\r\nINTERACTION WITH A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED FARTHER WEST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 15.2N 100.4W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 101.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.2N 103.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 18.8N 105.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 20.2N 107.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 22.5N 114.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nRADAR FROM ACAPULCO MEXICO SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  THIS MAY\r\nEXPLAIN WHY THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT IMPROVED MUCH SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO A WARM\r\nSPOT HAS RE-APPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY\r\nEN-ROUTE TO JOHN AND IT SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A MUCH MORE ACCURATE\r\nMEASURE OF THE HURRICANE'S CURRENT STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nJOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE\r\nESTIMATED MOTION IS 300/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP JOHN ON THIS\r\nGENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nGFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DUE TO ITS\r\nWEAKER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE ON THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AND BOTH TRACK JOHN ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND UKMET THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED RIGHT OR CLOSER TO THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO.  EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST\r\nOFFSHORE...ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT WILL BRING THE CORE OF\r\nTHIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER SOUTHWEST MEXICO. BEYOND THREE DAYS\r\nTHERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS AND HIGHER\r\nTHAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  AS WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS ASSUMED THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING\r\nTO THE NORTH OF JOHN TO BEND THE TRACK MORE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.\r\n \r\nWITH LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE STRENGTHENING.  BECAUSE INTENSIFICATION HAS CEASED OVER\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS...PERSISTENCE HAS BECOME LESS OF A POSITIVE \r\nFACTOR IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THEREFORE IT NOW KEEPS THE HURRICANE\r\nJUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. HOWEVER...IT IS ASSUMED THAT\r\nJOHN HAS JUST COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND\r\nSTRENGTHENING SHOULD RESUME.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO PREDICT A CATEGORY FOUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nVIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 15.6N 101.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 102.4W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N 104.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N 107.7W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 22.2N 110.7W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 22.8N 114.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 23.0N 118.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nTHE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO\r\nINVESTIGATE JOHN THIS MORNING JUST AFTER THE EYE REAPPEARED ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  A 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 126 KT WAS\r\nREPORTED ON THE OUTBOUND LEG NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS REDUCES\r\nTO 113 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A DROPSONDE\r\nMEASUREMENT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  FURTHERMORE... DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.0 OR 115 KT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND JOHN HAS\r\nNOW REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE\r\nSCALE.  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nLOW...AND THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 30 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS... CONSEQUENTLY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY FOUR\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER WHICH...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE\r\nTO THE HURRICANE INTERACTING WITH LAND AND EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTERING\r\nCOOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND PARALLEL VERY CLOSE TO THE WEST COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nCONU. THERE REMAINS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK\r\nAFTER THREE DAYS...AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL TAKES JOHN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY FROM THE AIRCRAFT\r\nOBSERVATIONS.  THE UPDATED TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST AND THE\r\nEXPANDED WIND RADII HAVE PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO TO\r\nADJUST THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 16.6N 102.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.6N 103.6W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 19.3N 105.6W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N 107.3W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 22.3N 108.7W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N 115.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nJOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JOHN IS UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 1520 UTC\r\nSSMI MICROWAVE PASS.  BOTH THE OCCURRENCE AND TIME SCALE OF THESE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.  IN\r\nANY EVENT...CONSIDERING THE CURRENT INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED FOR THE EARLY PART\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE ONCE\r\nTHE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT HAS ENDED.  THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN IN A\r\nLOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME. \r\nJOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO...PARALLEL TO BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST\r\nOF MEXICO. ONLY A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER\r\nASHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. \r\n\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.  \r\n\r\nTHE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nINVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 1800 UTC. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 17.4N 103.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH JOHN HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY.  THE EYE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME\r\nOBSCURED AND THE OVERALL SHAPE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS BECOME\r\nSOMEWHAT ELONGATED.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE THAT HAS CAUSED A FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT BASED ON THE TRENDS IN\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE. STILL...JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY\r\nTHREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC...GIVEN THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. \r\nADDITIONALLY...SOUTHERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED EAST OF JOHN OVER SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OFFSHORE AND\r\nOVER VERY WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNDER\r\nTHE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL\r\nCOMPLETE.  INDEED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR JOHN TO BE A CATEGORY\r\nFOUR HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREAFTER...\r\nJOHN WILL ENCOUNTER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WEST OF BAJA...\r\nRESULTING IN WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nJOHN HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/14...DURING THE LAST 6 TO\r\n12 HOURS. THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON JOHN CONTINUING\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD...EFFECTIVELY PARALLELING THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO...AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  IN FACT...THE GFDL HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE LEFT...OR WEST...IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nOTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND NO LONGER SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BASED ON THEIR DIFFERING DEPICTIONS\r\nOF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS...SAVE THE GFDL...LIFT THIS TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD\r\nALLOWING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF JOHN...RESULTING IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST.  THE GFDL KEEPS THE TROUGH IN\r\nPLACE ALLOWING JOHN TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  WHILE THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY\r\nDISCREDITED...ALL OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THIS TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS MEANS THAT\r\nHURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY...EVEN IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT MAKE\r\nLANDFALL ON THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW\r\nNEEDED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ACCORDINGLY...\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MADE SEVERAL CHANGES TO THE WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 18.1N 104.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 19.3N 105.9W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 21.3N 107.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N 108.6W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 109.8W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 23.8N 112.3W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 24.0N 116.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nTHE EYE REMAINS OBSCURED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT\r\nSUCCESSIVE 0231 AND 0232 UTC MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND THE\r\nCUYUTLAN MEXICO RADAR CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND\r\nTHERE IS PLENTY OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SOMEWHAT DEGRADED\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE IS POSSIBLY DUE TO A LITTLE BIT OF WIND SHEAR\r\nAND THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH LAND.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 110 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM 100 TO 115 KT.  JOHN REMAINS A\r\nDANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE GIVEN THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS JOHN OFFSHORE FROM MAINLAND MEXICO BUT\r\nNEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ROUGHLY 36\r\nHOURS.  THEREFORE...DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS...ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND ONLY A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING\r\nWOULD MAKE JOHN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...AND THIS POSSIBILITY IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  ONCE IT PASSES WEST\r\nOF BAJA...COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING\r\nTREND...BUT SINCE JOHN IS SO STRONG NOW IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS JOHN A TROPICAL STORM AT DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/12...SO JOHN IS\r\nRIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON JOHN CONTINUING TO PARALLEL THE COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BACK TO THE RIGHT\r\nOR EAST AGAIN AND TAKES JOHN INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE OVERALL CHANGED\r\nLITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE AFTER\r\nTHE WESTWARD TURN NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA DUE TO DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FOR\r\nTHE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PRESUMES THAT THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT IN BUILDING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF JOHN THAT WILL TURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WESTWARD. \r\nTHE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST OTHERWISE...WHICH KEEPS THE CONSENSUS\r\nTRACKS SLOWER THAN THEY WOULD BE IN ITS ABSENCE.  PAYING SOME\r\nATTENTION TO THE GFDL SOLUTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS ON THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF JOHN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 18.7N 105.3W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 20.0N 106.6W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 21.6N 108.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.7N 109.3W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 23.4N 110.6W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 24.0N 113.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 24.0N 117.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT JOHN HAS AN OBSCURED EYE\r\nAND A DISTINCT EYEWALL...ABOUT 20 N MI WIDE.  THE CUYUTLAN MEXICO\r\nRADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE AS WELL AS RAIN BANDS\r\nALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 115 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 110 KT.  JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. \r\nA UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED \r\nTO INVESTIGATE JOHN AT 1800 UTC...AND...IF NECESSARY...ADJUSTMENTS\r\nTO THE INTENSITY WILL BE MADE IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.   \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAINTAINS JOHN AS A CATEGORY THREE TO\r\nBORDERLINE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nDIFFICULTY IN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nINTERACTION OF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE WITH LAND.  SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE FORECAST SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT AND WATERS WILL REMAIN\r\nAROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  IN 72 HOURS...JOHN IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER WATERS BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND STEADY WEAKENING TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHOULD OCCUR BY DAY 5.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/12.  JOHN HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN\r\nTIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS WITH JOHN CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE\r\nMODELS DIVERGE IN FORECASTING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND EITHER TAKE JOHN ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA\r\nOR REMAIN TO THE SOUTH.  THE GFS AND UKMET BOTH MAINTAIN ENOUGH\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO\r\nKEEP JOHN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE\r\nGFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LANDFALL ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 19.5N 106.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 20.7N 107.6W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 22.0N 108.8W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N 110.1W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.3N 111.4W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON\r\nINDICATE THAT JOHN IS WEAKER THAN EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES. A\r\nDROPSONDE IN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB WITH A\r\n20 KT SURFACE WIND...SO THE ACTUAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ACTUALLY A\r\nLITTLE LOWER.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 90 KT...IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT FROM A GPS DROPSONDE IN\r\nTHE EASTERN EYEWALL.  ASIDE FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OBSERVED\r\nYESTERDAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY JOHN HAS WEAKENED SO MUCH. PERHAPS\r\nIT WAS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS LANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH JOHN HAS\r\nWEAKENED...IT STILL HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN AND THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nTHE CENTER REACHES SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  ONCE JOHN STARTS\r\nMOVING AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT SHOULD BEGIN TRAVERSING\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STEADILY WEAKEN. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE.   JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH SOME POSSIBLE INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE SMALLER HURRICANE...KRISTY...LOCATED SOME 600 MILES TO ITS\r\nWEST.  NOW THAT THE GFDL MODEL HAS SHIFTED FURTHER TO THE LEFT...\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK THAT\r\nWOULD TAKE JOHN NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND THEN\r\nTAKES JOHN ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ALONG\r\nBOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nADJUSTED FROM THE OBSERVATIONS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 20.7N 107.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 21.8N 108.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N 109.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 110.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 24.1N 112.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 25.0N 119.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 25.0N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME OBSCURED THIS EVENING.  LOS CABOS MEXICO RADAR ANIMATION\r\nINDICATES THE EXISTENCE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 90\r\nKT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING\r\nFROM 90 TO 102 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND A CIMSS WIND SHEAR\r\nANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT JOHN HAS OUT RUN THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE\r\nAND NOW HAS MOVED WITHIN 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...JOHN\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT PASSES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/11.  JOHN REMAINS WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nCLUSTER INTO TWO GROUPS.  THE GFDL...NAVY GFDN...AND GFS INDICATE A\r\nNORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...WITHIN A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE ECMWF...GFS\r\nENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE UKMET ALL SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...ALLOWING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS HEDGED CLOSELY TO A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE SECOND DYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTER...WHICH INDICATES A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3. \r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT FORECAST ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH\r\nCOASTS OF THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 21.4N 107.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 22.4N 108.9W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.4N 110.3W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.2N 111.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 24.8N 113.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 26.0N 119.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 26.0N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOHN WHICH HAD DEGRADED EARLIER IN THE\r\nEVENING...HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED ONCE AGAIN. AN EYE IS NOW\r\nDISCERNIBLE IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS VERY WELL DEFINED ON THE\r\nLOS CABOS RADAR. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOHN HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN CONTRACTING ON THE\r\nRADAR IMAGES. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 KT FROM\r\nAFWA... 102 KT FROM SAB...TO 115 KT FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL USE A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES AND IS SET\r\nAT 100 KT.  AN UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE\r\nINTENSITY OF JOHN LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nJOHN HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OR WEST OF TRACK DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS.  A LONGER TERM 12-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/11 KT\r\nAND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY. DESPITE THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRENDS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD \r\nIN THE GUIDANCE AND MUCH HIGHER THAN NORMAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY \r\nIN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THE GFDL AND GFS SHOW JOHN MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD ALONG THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEND AFTER 48\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT\r\nFOR THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...BUT LATER IN THE PERIOD IS \r\nADJUSTED RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS OF \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE BOTH FORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO JOHN REACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW\r\nSUIT.  THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS WEST OF\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING. JOHN WILL\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS\r\nSSTS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 21.7N 108.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N 110.1W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 24.8N 112.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 25.4N 114.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 26.3N 116.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 26.8N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n \r\nA DROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER JUST REPORTED\r\nA CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 MB WITH 19 KT OF SURFACE WINDS...WHICH\r\nINDICATES A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 954 MB. HOWEVER THE PEAK\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 98 KT. THE PLANE HASN'T SAMPLED THE\r\nENTIRE STORM... AND WITH SUCH A LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE... THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 100 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE RING OF THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE CENTER OF JOHN HAS WARMED SOME\r\nTHIS MORNING... THOUGH THE EYE IS BECOMING WARMER AND\r\nBETTER-DEFINED. THESE CHANGES MAY BE DUE TO ONGOING AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS SEEN ON CABO SAN LUCAS RADAR... WHICH MAKES\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES RATHER UNCERTAIN.  \r\n \r\nJOHN HAS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY... AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING\r\n310/6. THIS SLOW-DOWN SHOULD BE TEMPORARY WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED\r\nIN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO... WHICH SHOULD PUSH JOHN ALONG\r\nSOON. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME ACCELERATION AND IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THIS\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER MODELS ARE DIVERGENT... WITH THE GFS/GFDL FARTHER TO THE\r\nRIGHT SHOWING A THREAT TO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... WHILE THE\r\nOTHER MODELS INDICATE A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AWAY FROM LAND.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO NORTH IN THE SHORT-\r\nTERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... AND LATER IN THE PERIOD\r\nIS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE COULD STILL BE A LITTLE STRENGTHENING BEFORE JOHN NEARS THE\r\nCOAST TONIGHT. SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SHEAR AND THE\r\nWATERS ARE QUITE WARM IN THAT AREA. THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND AND COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD FORCE A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING. JOHN WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AT A FAST RATE BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS AS IT ENCOUNTERS SSTS OF 23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS.... LIKELY\r\nCAUSING DISSIPATION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 22.0N 108.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.9N 110.0W   105 KT...INLAND NEAR COAST\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N 111.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.8N 112.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N 114.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 26.3N 116.6W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 26.5N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 26.5N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE\r\nWITH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND PRONOUNCED BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECON MISSION\r\nEARLIER TODAY WERE 102 KT AT 700 MB... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 92 KT\r\nAT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER... AFTER THE RECON LEFT... JOHN FINISHED\r\nITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... AS INDICATED BY CABO SAN LUCAS\r\nRADAR.  THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY RECOVERED A LITTLE FROM THE\r\nTEMPORARY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT... AND THE WINDS WILL BE NUDGED DOWN\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY TO 95 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL THIS EVENING.  \r\n\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION SEEN EARLIER HAS CONTINUED... NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 335/7.  GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST SINCE SIX HOURS AGO.  THE GFS/GFDL/UKMET ARE INDICATING\r\nTHAT JOHN WILL FIND A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND RECURVE TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION.  THE MINORITY\r\nSOLUTION SUGGESTS A LEFTWARD TURN AFTER INTERACTION WITH BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE... THE FORECAST MAY HAVE TO\r\nBE MOVED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.  THIS WOULD INCREASE THE\r\nFLOODING THREAT IN THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES CONSIDERABLY IF THE\r\nGFS/GFDL/UKMET CLUSTER IS CORRECT. \r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND... CONSEQUENTLY... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nHIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST.. WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN\r\nTHAN USUAL.  THE MOST LIKELY SITUATION IS THAT JOHN WILL MOVE\r\nINLAND THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY... PROBABLY EMERGING IN\r\nTHE PACIFIC OCEAN AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS LIKELY AFTER IT REEMERGES DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND\r\nWITH A DISSIPATION OVER COLD WATER BY 5 DAYS.  AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO WOULD HAVE THE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATE IN JUST A\r\nFEW DAYS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 22.8N 109.0W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 109.9W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.7N 111.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.6N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 26.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.3N 116.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 29.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM LOS CABOS AND GUASAVE\r\nINDICATE THAT THE 10-12 N MI WIDE EYE OF JOHN MADE LANDFALL NEAR 02Z\r\nOVER CABO DEL ESTE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT THE EYE IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION...BUT NOT YET\r\nENOUGH TO JUSTIFY DROPPING THE MAXIMUM WINDS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO.  ONE\r\nINTERESTING ASPECT OF THE INFRARED IMAGERY IS THAT JOHN HAS LOST\r\nITS CIRCULAR APPEARANCE WITH THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING TO THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IF SHEAR IS OCCURRING.  SINCE NO\r\nAVAILABLE DATA SHOWS SHEAR...THE REASON FOR THIS APPEARANCE IS\r\nUNKNOWN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8.  JOHN IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWING COMPLEX UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND WESTERLY FLOW\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF JOHN...AND THUS ARE CALLING FOR THE STORM TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nNOGAPS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT JUMPS TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AND ONLY THE CANADIAN AND THE ECMWF STILL TAKE JOHN\r\nWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED NOTABLY TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT\r\nNOT AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HR.  SHOULD THE\r\nCURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL REQUIRE ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JOHN CLOSE ENOUGH TO BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA FOR LAND INTERACTION TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY.  WITH AN\r\nINCREASING AMOUNT OF INFLOW COMING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME IS DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK. \r\nSHOULD THE CYCLONE STAY OVER OR CLOSE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...\r\nIT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SLOWER DURING THE POST-36 HR PERIOD THAN\r\nSHOWN HERE.\r\n \r\nIT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER JOHN WILL REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE OVER THAT REGION EVEN IF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER DOES NOT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 23.4N 109.6W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 24.4N 110.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 25.5N 110.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 26.7N 111.8W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N 117.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n \r\nMEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN\r\nREMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE EYE HAS ERODED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR IMAGERY...BUT THE NORTHERN EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE INTACT ALONG\r\nTHE COAST EAST OF LA PAZ.  DUE TO A LACK OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nAND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRATHER UNCERTAIN.  SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT FAR INLAND THE INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8. JOHN IS BEING STEERED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL\r\nRUNS CONTINUE TO HAVE A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD. THE GFDL AND GFS MADE\r\nA RATHER LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND NOW INDICATE THAT JOHN COULD\r\nEMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE UKMET ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD BUT KEEPS JOHN ALONG THE EAST COAST\r\nOF THE PENINSULA. DESPITE THE LARGE CHANGES IN THE MODELS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ONLY ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY AND IS JUST RIGHT OR\r\nEAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THE\r\nIMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF THE PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 12-18\r\nHOURS...BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE\r\nPENINSULA...MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS JOHN A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER 12-18\r\nHOURS...SINCE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCOAST OR EVEN BRIEFLY OVER THE BAY OF LA PAZ TODAY. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS JOHN A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF JOHN.\r\nIF THE HURRICANE REMAINS EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALONG THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN\r\nINDICATED.  HOWEVER...SINCE JOHN IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT\r\nCOULD ALSO WEAKEN FASTER OR EVEN DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD\r\nINTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 24.2N 110.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 25.0N 110.8W    75 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 26.1N 111.8W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 27.2N 112.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 29.7N 116.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"John","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n\r\nAFTER BRIEFLY EMERGING INTO THE BAHIA LA PAZ... THE CENTER IS\r\nMAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ON BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE EYE FEATURE ON\r\nSATELLITE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT THOUGH THERE IS STILL FAIRLY STRONG\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DUE TO THE LONG INTERACTION WITH LAND\r\nAND THE LOSS OF AN EYE... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70\r\nKT.  HOWEVER THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT\r\nESTIMATE AS FEW OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM THE\r\nHURRICANE'S CORE.  JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AT A STEADY RATE\r\nAS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER BAJA.  REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED\r\nAFTER IT EMERGES FROM THE PENINSULA IN A COUPLE DAYS DUE TO THE\r\nCOLDER WATERS WEST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER... THE\r\nSMALL SYSTEM MIGHT DISSIPATE OVER LAND.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT... NOW 320/8. \r\nIN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE\r\nLEFT... OR WEST... SINCE THE LAST MODEL CYCLE.  IN FACT...THE GFDL\r\nIS NOW ONE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST TRACKS AFTER BEING ON THE NORTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR QUITE SOME TIME.  WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSEVERELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...RECURVATURE INTO THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA APPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN YESTERDAY. \r\nINSTEAD JOHN SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD CLOSE TO FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nIT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD\r\nINTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES EVEN THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY NOT APPROACH THAT REGION. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 24.5N 110.8W    70 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION SEEN ON\r\nSATELLITE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS SPENT AT LEAST 12 HOURS OVER\r\nLAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO HAVE DIMINISHED TO A TROPICAL STORM... SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 60 KT. STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS THE CENTER SHOULD REMAIN OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... COLDER WATERS\r\nSHOULD KILL THE SYSTEM QUICKLY AFTER THE SEVERELY WEAKENED CYCLONE\r\nEMERGES INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT\r\nTRACK... MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO\r\nENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT... NOW\r\n315/7.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A WEAK\r\nRIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT ON HOW MUCH OF A WESTWARD TURN...\r\nIF ANY... TO EXPECT AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nGFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING FROM A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TO A WESTERLY TRACK FROM RUN-TO-RUN. LITTLE CHANGE HAS\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 25.0N 111.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 25.8N 112.1W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 26.8N 113.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N 114.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.7N 115.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD CONSTITUCION\r\nSHOW THAT THE CENTER OF JOHN IS MOVING 320/7 OVER THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nJOHN IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE RIDGE\r\nAMPLIFYING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA.  THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO RAISE HEIGHTS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN U. S. ENOUGH TO TURN JOHN WESTWARD INTO THE\r\nPACIFIC.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS SHOW ENOUGH\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW JOHN TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE MODELS AGREE THAT JOHN WILL\r\nCONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...WITH THE MAJOR DIVERGENCE\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN\r\nIN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...WITH A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION OVER THE PACIFIC AFTER 36 HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE FROM JOHN IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THE DESERT\r\nSOUTHWEST MONSOON AREAS.\r\n\r\nJOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE STORM OVER THE PACIFIC ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER. \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN THE PACIFIC\r\nARE NEAR OR BELOW 22C...SO WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN QUICKLY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A\r\nDEPRESSION BEFORE EMERGING INTO THE PACIFIC...THEN BECOMING A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE LOW BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 25.6N 111.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 26.4N 112.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 27.4N 113.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 28.3N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 29.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS NEAR 0200 UTC AND A REPORT OF 37 KT FROM SHIP D5XH JUST\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nJOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/7.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND LARGE\r\nDISCREPANCIES IN THE STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK\r\nMODELS.  THE SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH\r\nFORECAST JOHN TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO TO\r\nTHE CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH SHOW JOHN TURNING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS DIFFERS BY\r\nALMOST 180 DEGREES FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE UKMET AND EUROPEAN\r\nMODELS APPEAR TO PROVIDE THE MOST REALISTIC SOLUTIONS BY SHOWING\r\nTHE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WEST BEYOND 36 HOURS AS IT\r\nBECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING MIDDLE TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY ASSUMING\r\nJOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST WITHIN A MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN A DAY OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST IN LINE WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. REGARDLESS OF\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK...A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPULL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN NORTHEASTWARD AND ENHANCE\r\nRAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nWITH JOHN FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR ANOTHER 24-36\r\nHOURS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. SHOULD JOHN RE-EMERGE BACK OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC...REGENERATION IS NOT FORECAST DUE TO COLD\r\nWATERS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 26.3N 112.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 27.1N 112.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 28.1N 113.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 29.2N 114.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 29.9N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 30.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n\r\nJOHN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM WITH ALMOST ALL OF\r\nTHE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A MEXICAN NAVY\r\nSTATION AT SANTA ROSALIA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 996.1 MB\r\nAND 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nDECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE\r\nTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...\r\nIF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nJOHN IS MOVING ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 325/8. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nISN'T EASY THIS MORNING WITH THE SAME PROBLEMS FOR THE LAST COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS PERSISTING. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHEN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOHN WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN\r\nINTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFDL/GFS SHOW A\r\nMORE RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD TURN IN A DAY OR SO\r\nFOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A GOOD TOOL TO SMOOTH THROUGH THESE\r\nDIFFERENCES AND HAS VERIFIED WELL. THEREFORE.. THE OFFICIAL IS\r\nNUDGED NORTHWARD IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE TRACK... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A RESULT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE FROM JOHN.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 27.1N 112.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.0N 113.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.9N 114.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 29.8N 115.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 30.2N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR... ALONG WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN IN CENTRAL BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA... IS DISRUPTING THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nEVIDENCE OF THIS IS DISPLAYED ON SATELLITE PICTURES WITH A\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER SEEN OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER... EVEN WITH VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES... THE EXACT CENTER OF JOHN IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  SURFACE\r\nWINDS AT SANTA ROSALIA HAVE SHIFTED FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nIN THE PAST 3 HOURS.. SO THE CENTER IS LIKELY WEST OF THAT\r\nLOCATION. CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. THESE\r\nWINDS ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA MOSTLY IN ONSHORE FLOW.\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND JOHN COULD DISSIPATE\r\nTOMORROW.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE IS THAT JOHN HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.. NOW 325/6.  THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK SEEMS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER STAYS\r\nSOMEWHAT COUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN GENERAL THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THE\r\nGFDL/GFS KEEP SHIFTING WILDLY FROM A MORE WESTWARD TO NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK WHILE THE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A TOUCH TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST... CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THERE PROBABLY\r\nWON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF JOHN TOMORROW... AND THE MAIN THREAT WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO BE VERY HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nAND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS SPREADING INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 27.6N 112.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.4N 113.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 29.4N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 30.2N 114.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS RATHER DIFFICULT TO FIND IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...IF IN FACT A CENTER\r\nSTILL EXISTS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...A 2043Z AMSRE REVEALED A WEAK\r\nSPIRAL RAIN BAND OUTLINING A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION ABOUT 50 MI\r\nNORTHWEST OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO...WHICH IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF\r\nWHERE JOHN SHOULD BE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATED 6 HOUR MOTION. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT WITH DISSIPATION LIKELY WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE.\r\n\r\nBEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 330/6...BASED ON THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED EXTRAPOLATED DATA.  A MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nWITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OF THE LOW- TO MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER\r\nMEXICO...WITH ALL INDICATING DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE EAST BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS TO MAINTAIN A MOTION PARALLEL TO THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nMOUNTAIN RANGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF\r\nMID- TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL\r\nAMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 28.2N 113.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 29.0N 113.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 29.7N 114.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 30.7N 115.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nIT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ITS\r\nLOCATION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE...AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE\r\nTHAT JOHN IS WEAKENING FAST. I WAS TEMPTED TO WRITE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM BUT IT IS ALWAYS A GOOD DECISION TO WAIT FOR\r\nTHE MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nJOHN APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT\r\n3 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A VERY BROAD AREA OF MID- TO\r\nUPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL\r\nAMOUNTS IN THOSE PARTICULAR AREAS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 28.4N 113.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 30.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP112006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN AT LEAST A DAY SINCE A CLEAR CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nDISCERNABLE...AND NOW THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING AND\r\nMOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS THE CONVECTION\r\nWEAKENS.  GIVEN THIS LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON JOHN.  NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER CONTINUES\r\nMOVING ROUGHLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND A\r\nREMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY. \r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS FROM\r\nLOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR ANY RAINFALL OR FLOODING IMPACTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 29.2N 113.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 29.9N 113.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 30.6N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-10-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP182006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER THAT HAS BEEN SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE PAST TWO\r\nDAYS IS NOW ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE HAS A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...\r\nWITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDS IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTH. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nTHAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nMEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION\r\nON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  BY 96 HR...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...LEAVING THE\r\nDEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nRIDGE TO RE-BUILD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 96\r\nHR...LEAVING THE CYCLONE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAKNESS AND\r\nTURNING SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS SOMEWHAT\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE...AS THERE IS A CHANCE THE CYCLONE COULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST THROUGH 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR STEADY SLOW STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE SMALL INNER\r\nCORE THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER.  AFTER 72 HR...\r\nTHE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR CAUSED BY THE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH.  THE GFS KEEPS ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND THE TROUGH TO KEEP THE SHEAR LIGHT.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS FORECAST 20-25 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THE UKMET FORECASTS A VERY UNFAVORABLE 40-60 KT OF\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE\r\nECMWF/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS TO FORECAST A SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 16.8N 104.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.1N 105.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.1N 107.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N 108.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 17.1N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-10-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP182006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL AS A VERY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE RATHER LIMITED AREAL\r\nEXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS BOTH INDICATE\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN LIGHT\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND WITH A FORECAST MOTION OVER SEAS SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28C.  THE GFDL SUGGESTS A WEAKENING\r\nBEYOND DAY 3 WHICH MIGHT BE DUE THERMODYNAMIC INFLUENCES.  THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED\r\nON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO.  A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AND THE\r\nGFDL...INDICATE A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...\r\nCAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS FORECAST\r\nA MORE PRONOUNCED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE EARLIER\r\nRUNS.  THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nA GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...\r\nTOWARD THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE\r\nLEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED OFF OF\r\nA CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND THE GFS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 17.0N 104.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 16.9N 105.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.6N 107.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.1N 111.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-10-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP182006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ON THE DECREASE\r\nTONIGHT. THIS...ALONG WITH A LACK OF DEFINITIVE BANDING FEATURES...\r\nHAS LED TO A REDUCTION IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON FUTURE INTENSIFICATION... WITH\r\nLIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS BEING THE STRONGEST POSITIVE\r\nFACTORS. HOWEVER THE GFDL DOESN'T FORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING AND\r\nINSTEAD DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE BEYOND 90 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE... WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER THIS SEASON... THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN DIMINISHED A BIT FROM THE LAST\r\nPACKAGE... SHOWING A MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION RATE AND A LOWER\r\nPEAK INTENSITY. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING DUE WEST TONIGHT AT ABOUT 7 KT\r\nBASED ON A 2212 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND FIXES FROM THE VARIOUS\r\nAGENCIES. DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE IS RATHER\r\nLIMITED DUE TO MOST GLOBAL MODELS NOT PROPERLY RESOLVING THE\r\nDEPRESSION. HOWEVER... GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL BUILD AND COULD FORCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER\r\nTHE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS RIDGE REMAINING INTACT FOR THE REST\r\nOF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON... BUT IS STILL TO THE NORTH OF MOST\r\nGUIDANCE AS WE'RE NOT READY TO TOTALLY BUY INTO A SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  IN THE LONGER-RANGE... THE FORECAST IS SPED UP AND FARTHER\r\nSOUTH DUE TO MOST MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE RIDGING THAN IN THE\r\nEARLIER RUNS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE BAM MEDIUM/DEEP\r\nMODELS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 16.9N 105.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N 108.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 112.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 16.0N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP182006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006\r\n \r\nIF THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...YOU WOULD NEVER KNOW IT FROM THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT\r\n0144Z. THIS PASS SHOWED A LOT OF LIGHT WINDS...A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH\r\nTROUGH AXIS...AND PRECIOUS LITTLE ELSE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT\r\n0305Z SHOWED ALMOST NO STRUCTURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES. HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ROTATION ALOFT AROUND THE LIMITED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...SO IF THE CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE A SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION COULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AGAIN.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS SUB-ROSA...AND IS LOWERED TO 25 KT\r\nIN ACCORD WITH THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE.  WHILE THERE ARE HINTS THAT\r\nWHATEVER SURFACE CENTER EXISTS MAY BE LAGGING BEHIND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...I'LL GO WITH CONTINUITY AND THE ROTATION ALOFT FOR AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/8.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE SYSTEM\r\nON A TRACK A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nWITH LIMITED CONVECTION AND POOR DEFINITION OF THE WIND FIELD...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BECOMING A CANDIDATE FOR EARLY DISSIPATION.\r\nHOWEVER...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...FOR NOW...WILL INDICATE THE SAME. FACTORS FAVORING THIS\r\nSCENARIO INCLUDE LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATERS. ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS A LITTLE DRY...AND IF THESE FACTORS KEEP A LID ON\r\nTHE CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THEN THE DEPRESSION COULD\r\nDISSIPATE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 16.6N 106.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.4N 107.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 15.7N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 15.5N 113.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 15.5N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 15.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 15.5N 125.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP182006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006\r\n \r\nLATE-NIGHT SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME EXPOSED ABOUT 90 N\r\nMI SOUTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  THE REASON FOR THIS IS\r\nUNCLEAR...AS SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SHOW ONLY 10-15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND PERHAPS THIS HAS HELPED DRY THE SYSTEM UP.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.\r\n\r\nAS BEST AS CAN BE DETERMINED...THE CENTER MOVED ALMOST DUE SOUTH\r\nDURING THE NIGHT...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FROM THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE\r\nMOTION...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/4.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF OF A WESTWARD-BUILDING LOW/\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE.  AFTER 24 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD...WITH THE BAM MODELS SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nBASED ON THE RE-LOCATION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE PARTING OF THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION REQUIRES A MAJOR CHANGE\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL NOW\r\nCALLS FOR PROLONGED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE OTHER AVAILABLE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM BEFORE DAY 5.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO PERSIST AS A WEAK\r\nDEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW AND\r\nDISSIPATION.  IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 15.8N 105.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 106.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 15.0N 108.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 110.2W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 112.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 14.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP182006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 115 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE RATHER LIMITED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR CUT AT THIS POINT...\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS WELL AS SOME STABLE AIR INTRUSION SEEM TO BE\r\nHAMPERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THIS\r\nMORNING'S 1250Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED NOTHING STRONGER THAN\r\n25 KT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE EXPOSED CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 25 KT BASED OFF OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nSHIPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE GFDL AND\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A QUICKER DEMISE\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO FESTER AS A\r\nWEAK DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATION IN 2 DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 240/6...WITHIN THE SHALLOW\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE BAJA PENINSULA.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ALL SUGGEST A GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURVIVES\r\nBEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE MODELS DO INDICATE A DEVELOPING\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA/NORTHWEST MEXICO\r\nWHICH WOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS SHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 15.6N 105.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.1N 106.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.8N 108.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.8N 109.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP182006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2006\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 18\r\nHOURS OR SO...AND ALL THAT REMAINS IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nTHEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS\r\nIS THE LAST ADVISORY. A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED PRIMARILY DUE\r\nTO DRY AIR ALOFT. A SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT IS FORECAST AS HIGH\r\nPRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REMNANT LOW. \r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 15.8N 106.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.6N 106.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 15.5N 110.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-11-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n200 AM PDT WED NOV 08 2006\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 345 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nZIHUATANEJO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE\r\nDESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30\r\nKT FROM TAFB. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A 08/0600Z WIND\r\nREPORT OF 26 KT FROM SHIP WTDK LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\n...ALTHOUGH QUALITY CONTROL CHECKS SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE WIND AND\r\nPRESSURE VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING JUST A LITTLE HIGH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER\r\nTRICKY AND THE FUTURE MOTION WILL BE DETERMINED STRONGLY BY HOW\r\nMUCH ORGANIZATION THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nMOVE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD TOWARD\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OR\r\nDISSIPATE IT IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS SOLUTION WAS CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE \r\nRECURVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP BY A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\n36-48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE TD-19E IS\r\nLOCATED BENEATH A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND REGIME. VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING. ONCE THE SYSTEM REACHES ABOUT 15N LATITUDE...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME RATHER\r\nHOSTILE AND GRADUALLY INDUCE WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IF TD-19E REMAINS\r\nSOUTH OF 15N LIKE THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE\r\nSUGGESTING...THEN LESS WEAKENING THAN FORECAST COULD RESULT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 12.7N 104.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 14.5N 106.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 15.0N 107.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 15.3N 107.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-11-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n700 AM PST WED NOV 08 2006\r\n \r\nTHE VESSEL 4XGS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER REPORTED 28 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER\r\nQUALITY CONTROL CHECK INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE RUNNING\r\nA LITTLE HIGH.  A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nOVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE\r\nINFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.  NONETHELESS THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30\r\nTO 35 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...IT\r\nIS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST TO ITS NORTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD WEAKEN SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE INITIAL POSITION REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  SOME ADDITIONAL RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nWHEN MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/6.  THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS\r\nHIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG IT BECOMES.  A BROAD TROUGH IS\r\nPREDICTED TO DROP INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS\r\nWOULD LIKELY TURN A VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OR EVEN\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT I BELIEVE ITS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A LITTLE HIGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nSHEARED OFF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE MOVE\r\nLITTLE BY DAYS 3-5...IF IT SURVIVES THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 13.6N 104.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.9N 106.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 16.2N 107.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-11-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n100 PM PST WED NOV 08 2006\r\n\r\nAFTER BEING VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER TODAY... \r\nTHE DEPRESSION'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS FALLEN APART DURING THE DAY. \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DISPLACED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED WITH\r\nOUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOOTING OUTWARD TO THE NORTH AND WEST.\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nA NARROW WINDOW OF 12 TO 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nPOOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL WHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING DESPITE 30 KT OF FORECAST WESTERLY WIND SHEAR. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE SUCH STRONG\r\nSHEAR...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nAN EARLIER TRMM PASS HELPED TO FORM AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n335/6.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD DIRECTION... RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER THESE MODELS\r\nALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STAY A VERTICALLY-COHERENT\r\nSYSTEM DESPITE STRONG SHEAR.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY\r\nTO BEGIN DECOUPLING LATER IN THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SHEAR...I HAVE\r\nOPTED TO STAY ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...\r\nCLOSER TO THE ECMWF...GFS... AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 14.3N 104.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.1N 104.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.9N 105.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 16.4N 105.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.6N 106.1W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 16.8N 106.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-11-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n700 PM PST WED NOV 08 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO DEGRADE\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 0000 UTC THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  SINCE THEN...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED AND PERSISTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nLOCATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE CURRENT SHEAR...BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO INSIST THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WITHIN 24 HOURS.  SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT WEAKEN THE\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY A LITTLE\r\nBELOW THE GUIDANCE.  UNLESS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST\r\nIN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE SOONER\r\nTHAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nA LATE AFTERNOON AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS HELPED TO PROVIDE\r\nA BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 320/6...WHICH IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS EXTREMELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND\r\nUKMET KEEPING A MORE VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nAHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS\r\nTHE CYCLONE WEAK AND PREDICTS IT WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOLLOWING CLOSELY WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.  ASSUMING THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...CLOSER TO THE GFS AND SHALLOW BAM SOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 14.6N 105.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 16.1N 106.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 16.5N 106.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.8N 107.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 17.0N 107.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-11-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n100 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\n...THE CONVECTIVE CONSTRUCTIVE OF TD-19E HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. A\r\nPRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT...WITH A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO\r\n-80C HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND\r\nNIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TD-19E IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nINCREASES. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS..THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND\r\nTHEN MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT COMES UNDER THE INCREASING\r\nINFLUENCE BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nREMAINS NEAR TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INCREASE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nSHIFTS EASTWARD. TD-19E HAS ABOUT A 12H-18H WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS BELOW THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODEL\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 14.8N 105.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.4N 105.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.4N 106.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 16.6N 107.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N 107.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 107.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-11-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n700 AM PST THU NOV 09 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER AND PERSISTED DURING\r\nTHE LAST FEW HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30\r\nKT AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.  THE EXPERIMENTAL\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS HAS BEEN RUNNING A BIT\r\nHIGHER.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nRECENT IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS.  EVEN THOUGH ROSA IS SHOWING SIGNS\r\nOF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING BEYOND 12\r\nHOURS. BY 48 HOURS...ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW\r\nWITH GRADUAL SPIN DOWN THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...ROSA HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE\r\nDEEP-LAYERED FLOW DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS RESULTING IN AN ALMOST\r\nDUE NORTH MOTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A\r\nLONGER-TERM AVERAGE YIELDING 340/6.  ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 12-24 HOURS RESULTING IN A TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nHOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST IN\r\nTHE SHALLOW AND DEEP-LAYER STEERING.  THIS INTRODUCES UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW FOR SURE EXACTLY\r\nHOW LONG DEEP CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTER. SHOULD THE\r\nCYCLONE BE ABLE TO HANG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...A\r\nTRACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IS\r\nPOSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LANDFALL\r\nALONG SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 15.7N 105.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.4N 105.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 16.8N 106.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.2N 106.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 107.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 108.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-11-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n100 PM PST THU NOV 09 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING SURPRISINGLY IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...ROSA NOW APPEARS INCREASINGLY LESS ORGANIZED.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NO LONGER AS WELL-DEFINED...CONVECTION IS\r\nBECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THE PRESENCE OF ARC CLOUDS IMPLIES THAT DRY AIR\r\nIS NOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. STILL...SHEARED CYCLONES SUCH AS ROSA\r\nOFTEN DISPLAY FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN LINE WITH\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  IT IS DIFFICULT\r\nTO ANTICIPATE WHETHER THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...OR LACK\r\nTHEREOF...IS THE BEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND OR IS\r\nJUST A SHORTER-TERM FLUCTUATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE\r\nLATTER AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASING SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD BRING ABOUT STEADY WEAKENING...WITH\r\nTHE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THREE DAYS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ROSA HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY\r\nHIGH CLOUDS DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 350/04.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nHIGHLY DIVERGENT...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW ROSA MOVING VERY\r\nFAR IN ANY DIRECTION.  THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST...WHILE THE GFDN SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.\r\nTHESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY DUE IN PART TO VARIATIONS IN\r\nTHE DEPTH OF THE MODEL CYCLONES.  THE GFS SHOWS A WEAKER AND\r\nSHALLOWER CYCLONE MOVING MORE TOWARD THE WEST WHILE THE GFDN SHOWS\r\nA STRONG AND DEEPER CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEAKER AND SHALLOWER GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 15.8N 105.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.2N 105.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 16.6N 105.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 106.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 18.5N 107.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-11-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n700 PM PST THU NOV 09 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RATHER\r\nDISORGANIZED...SHEARED...TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  SHIP\r\nA8GU7...QUALITY CONTROLLED FOR ACCURACY...REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST\r\n10 KT WINDS WITH A 1009 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ABOUT 85 N MI\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THE SHIP\r\nREPORT AND THE 30 KT DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH\r\nINDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AS THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR...WEAKENING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE LATEST FSU \r\nUNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS A SIMILAR OUTCOME. \r\n \r\nIT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIX THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/4...DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITHIN\r\nTHE SHALLOW LAYER FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER\r\nWEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  ROSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE/ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH\r\nREFLECT A SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 16.1N 105.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 16.9N 105.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 17.3N 106.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 106.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-11-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n100 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ROSA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MAY NOT EVEN\r\nBE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY LONGER. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE ANOTHER\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION FIRES OFF NEAR THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL ENTITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER\r\nPOSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BEST. A 10/0000Z TRMM\r\nOVERPASS ALONG WITH A 10/0042Z QUIKSCAT EDGE SWATH...BOTH OF WHICH\r\nCAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nBROAD CENTER OF ROSA IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CIRCULATION OF ROSA APPEARS\r\nTO BE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW\r\nNORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE ROSA\r\nREMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE OTHER\r\nDISTURBANCE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 450 NMI SOUTHWEST OF ROSA. THE\r\nENHANCED SHEAR PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING\r\nTREND...AND PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE LONGER TERM. IT IS ENTIRELY\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT ROSA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER\r\nDISTURBANCE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 15.7N 105.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N 106.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.3N 106.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.6N 106.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-11-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n700 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED JUST AFTER 06 UTC HAS PERSISTED\r\nEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO ROSA LIVES ON A LITTLE LONGER AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND NOT\r\nEXTENSIVE...HOWEVER...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN STRONG OVER\r\nTHIS SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE.  ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS\r\nWEAKENING...AND ALTHOUGH THE GFDL STILL FORECASTS ROSA TO REGAIN\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THAT MODEL HAS BACKED OFF ON ITS FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY AND LOSES THE CIRCULATION SOONER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE ITS\r\nPREDECESSOR...ANTICIPATES ROSA TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nROSA IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE VERY QUICKLY...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION\r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ABOUT 325/3.  ONCE THE CONVECTION\r\nIS SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BY THE SHEAR...THE CENTER OF\r\nEX-ROSA WILL PROBABLY BE PULLED MORE WESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES\r\nWITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN BETWEEN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST AND THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA TO ITS SOUTHWEST. \r\nTHIS IS THE SOLUTION SUGGESTED BY THE GFS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES A\r\nSLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE FARTHER NORTH.  NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG BUT A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 16.1N 106.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.9N 107.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.2N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-11-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP192006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006\r\n100 PM PST FRI NOV 10 2006\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS STRETCHED OUT INTO A BROKEN LINE WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  SINCE THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME SO POORLY-DEFINED...AND SINCE THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS LACKED MUCH ORGANIZATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS...ROSA\r\nHAS LOST THE CHARACTERISTICS REQUIRED TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  NO FORECAST POINTS ARE PROVIDED SINCE IT APPEARS THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS OPENING UP INTO A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH. \r\nONSHORE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS TROUGH COULD BRING SOME\r\nRAINFALL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND MANZANILLO\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ROSA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 16.2N 106.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-11-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP202006","Contents":"\r\n000\r\nWTPZ45 KNHC 110804\r\nTCDEP5\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006\r\n\r\nCORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ONE\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE TROPICAL\r\nLOW SITUATED ABOUT 620 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED\r\nAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND AN 11/0156Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED A FEW 25-30 KT NON-RAIN FLAGGED WIND VECTORS IN THE\r\nWESTERN QUADRANT AND NUMEROUS 40-50 KT RAIN FLAGGED HI-RES WIND\r\nVECTORS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THE TIME OF THE\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED INTO BANDING FEATURES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04 KT...BASED MAINLY ON A BLEND\r\nOF QUIKSCAT AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.\r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE THREE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR TD-20E TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD INTO A\r\nBROAD COL REGION IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS\r\n...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN AS DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BUILDS IN BEHIND A DEPARTING\r\nTROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND ABOUT 6 DEGREES WIDE OF\r\nLIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR. AS TD-20E MOVES NORTHWESTWARD...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THIS NARROW COMFORT ZONE AND GRADUALLY\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR BY 48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT CONDITIONS\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A\r\n35-40 KT TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD UP SLIGHTLY ABOVE\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL DUE THE LATTER FORECAST BEING BASED ON\r\nTHE MUCH FASTER BAMM MODEL...WHICH MOVES TD-20E OVER COOLER SSTS\r\nAND INTO THE STRONGER SHEAR MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 13.0N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 13.3N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 114.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 116.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 15.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-11-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP202006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT NOV 11 2006\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS NOT\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED.  QUIKSCAT DATA JUST RECEIVED FROM A 1300 UTC\r\nOVERPASS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM BARELY HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nAND IS LARGELY CHARACTERIZED BY AN ELONGATED TROUGH ORIENTED\r\nSOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH SYSTEMS AT\r\nTHIS STAGE...THE QUIKSCAT DATA ARE INCONCLUSIVE REGARDING THE\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS...WITH RETRIEVED WINDS OF 20-25 KT OUTSIDE OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...AND JUST A FEW 35-KT WINDS BENEATH THE\r\nCONVECTION THAT COULD EASILY BE RAIN-INFLATED.  GIVEN THE QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA...AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE FOR THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  IF THE SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP A\r\nLESS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WOULD APPEAR\r\nTO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN ANTICIPATING THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A\r\nLOW-END TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 260/5...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT\r\nIS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER WITHIN THE ELONGATED TROUGH. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.  THEREAFTER...MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN AND PERHAPS INDUCE A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO THE GFDL.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 12.3N 113.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.5N 113.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.3N 114.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 14.1N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N 114.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.3N 114.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-11-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP202006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202006\r\n100 PM PST SAT NOV 11 2006\r\n \r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS PREDICATED ON THE DEPRESSION\r\nMAINTAINING A LESS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IT HAS FAILED TO DO\r\nSO.  IN FACT...AS SUGGESTED BY THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING...HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS ELONGATED TO THE POINT OF BEING AN OPEN\r\nTROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER TROUGH EXTENDING HUNDREDS OF\r\nMILES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE TO NEAR\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE DEPRESSION NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  THE LARGER\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 12.0N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-11-14 05:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n1000 PM PDT MON NOV 13 2006\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND BANDING FEATURES ARE STARTING\r\nTO BECOME MORE EVIDENT.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT OVER THE AREA AND\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nSTRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WHICH WOULD REVERSE THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS BELOW THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE SINCE WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT MODEL IS DIAGNOSING\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/7.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nCOLLAPSE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS APPEAR TO HAVE BOTH A POOR\r\nINITIALIZATION AND AN UNREALISTIC EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS THEY\r\nSEEM TO OVEREMPHASIZE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF\r\nLEAST REGRET IS TO FORECAST A SLOW...AND GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nMOTION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0500Z 12.9N 104.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 14.0N 105.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.5N 106.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 106.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-11-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE NOV 14 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  A SMALL AREA OF\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER AT THE END OF A\r\nBAND THAT WRAPS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 25 KT FOR AFWA.  BASED ON THAT...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION TO 300/5.  IT IS EMBEDDED\r\nIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AS A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY TROUGHS CROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AMPLIFIES WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES TO CREATE A LIGHT NORTHERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. \r\nSHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE DEPRESSION WOULD MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND INDEED THE GFDL CALLS A LOOPING TRACK\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD.  STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHWARD NEAR CLARION ISLAND AND BECOME\r\nA CUT-OFF LOW.  THIS WOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACQUIRE A\r\nFASTER NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION...WITH THE GFDL\r\nFORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO REACH CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IN 96-108\r\nHR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION.  IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THE\r\nTRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A\r\nGENERALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF 15N NEAR THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL FORECAST IT TO PEAK JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60-72\r\nHR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  THERE\r\nARE TWO CONCERNS ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  FIRST...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE ENOUGH THAT THERE IS A 40-50 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR ACCORDING TO\r\nTHE INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  SECOND...ANY MOTION THAT\r\nDELAYS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE STRONGER SHEAR NORTH OF 15N WOULD\r\nALLOW IT MORE TIME IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD GET CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST HERE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 13.0N 104.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 13.2N 105.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 13.6N 105.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 13.9N 105.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 14.4N 106.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 107.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-11-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE NOV 14 2006\r\n \r\nAN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 09Z SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CORE BAND. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA ...AND 35\r\nKT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THE STRONG MICROWAVE PRESENTATION...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ESTIMATE...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS THE FIRST TIME\r\nSINCE 1961 THAT TWO TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC BASIN IN NOVEMBER...AND ONLY FIVE STORMS HAVE FORMED LATER\r\nIN THE SEASON THAN SERGIO.\r\n\r\nA REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION MIGHT BE 315/3...SLOWER THAN BEFORE. \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ALREADY WEAK RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN...AND ALL OF THE\r\nPRIMARY DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A LOOP OR A STALL OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST\r\nTO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO\r\nRESUME.  WITHIN THIS BASIC SCENARIO THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL\r\nSPREAD...HOWEVER...WITH THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT WELL\r\nOFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT LATER ON TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SEEM TO CONFIRM THE GOOD CORE BANDING\r\nSTRUCTURE SEEN IN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...AND SERGIO IS\r\nUNDERNEATH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE 29C...AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS MOIST.  I DON'T\r\nSEE ANY REASON WHY THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT DEVELOP FURTHER IN THE\r\nSHORT RUN...AND PERHAPS QUITE RAPIDLY.  THE SHIPS R-I INDEX\r\nCONTINUES TO INDICATE A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AS DOES THE GFDL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND IS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL GUIDANCE.  WHILE THERE IS UNFAVORABLE SHEAR TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...THE CURRENT FORECAST PRESUMES THAT SERGIO WILL\r\nREMAIN FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE SHEAR. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 13.2N 104.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.4N 104.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 13.5N 105.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 13.5N 105.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 14.0N 105.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N 107.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-11-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF SERGIO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A\r\nDISTINCT CURVED BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB WERE 45 KT AT 1800 UTC.  SINCE THEN...THE BANDING FEATURE\r\nAND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND\r\nIT APPEARS THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSERGIO HAS MOVED LITTLE TODAY...AND RECENTLY HAS BEEN DRIFTING\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.  LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS THE\r\nCURRENTLY WEAK STEERING PATTERN TO PERSIST.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE DIVERGES.  ONE SCENARIO...FAVORED BY THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...MAINTAINS A WEAK STEERING PATTERN AND MEANDERS SERGIO OFF\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO.  A SECOND SCENARIO...OFFERED BY\r\nTHE GFDL...ECMWF...AND FSSE...TAKES THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD\r\nWEST OF THE BAJA COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SECOND\r\nOPTION AND IS JUST EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY RAPID...WITH LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND A\r\nWARM DEEP OCEAN.  THE GFDL IS THE MOST ROBUST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE AND MAKES SERGIO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSERVATIVE...\r\nTAKING THE CYCLONE ONLY TO 70 KT IN 2 DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE TWO EXTREMES...AND\r\nIS ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 12.8N 104.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 13.1N 104.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N 104.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 105.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-11-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 PM PST TUE NOV 14 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN\r\nDURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55\r\nKT IN LINE WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  \r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAKING SERGIO A CATEGORY ONE\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nGETS TRICKY AS THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF SERGIO WOULD TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY. THE GFDL\r\nMODEL INDICATES ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING MAKING SERGIO A STRONG\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS WHILE THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE SHOW WEAKENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.  SINCE THE\r\nGFDL MODEL CAN SOMETIMES BE RATHER INSENSITIVE TO VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE LATTER MODELS.   \r\n \r\nSERGIO HAS SHOWN LITTLE OR NO MOTION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A VERY WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AS A WEAK MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nDROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A WEAK RIDGE FORMS\r\nOVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT\r\nAGREE ON THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN\r\nAND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS. \r\nFURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nINTENSITY OR DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE AS ANY APPRECIABLE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION WOULD TAKE SERGIO INTO AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.\r\nA STRONG AND DEEP CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL. CONVERSELY...A WEAK AND\r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  SINCE THE GFS DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE A REPRESENTATIVE VORTEX AND THE GFDL'S INTENSITY\r\nAPPEARS TOO STRONG GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED VERTICAL SHEAR...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS IN\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 12.8N 104.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 12.8N 104.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 13.1N 103.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N 103.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 14.6N 103.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 104.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-11-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA FROM WINDSAT AT 0057Z AND SSM/I AT 0305Z SHOW THAT\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION OF SERGIO IS ASYMMETRIC...CURRENTLY CONFINED\r\nTO THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS\r\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT...WHICH SEEMS INSUFFICIENT TO EXPLAIN THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE.  HOWEVER...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AFFECT THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW...WHICH IS CURRENTLY POOR TO THE NORTHWEST AND FAIR TO GOOD\r\nELSEWHERE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 135/1.  SERGIO IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF\r\nLIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE EAST\r\nAND WEST...AND SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND BECOME\r\nA CUTOFF LOW WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24-48\r\nHR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SERGIO TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AT A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 48 HR...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON\r\nTHE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF AN EAST-WEST RIDGE FORECAST TO FORM OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NOGAPS TAKES SERGIO INLAND OVER MEXICO INTO\r\nTHE WESTERLIES BEFORE THE RIDGE FORMS.  THE UKMET TRAPS THE SYSTEM\r\nIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO THROUGH 120 HR...\r\nWITH THE OTHER MODELS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN CALLING FOR A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AGREES BEST\r\nWITH THE CONU CONSENSUS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...\r\nCALLING FOR A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM 48-120 HR.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK HAS ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...THE LACK OF A CLOSED EYEWALL AND A LESS\r\nFAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGEST A DECREASED CHANCE OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nNO LONGER CALLS FOR SERGIO TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS SHEAR APPEARS TOO STRONG COMPARED TO\r\nTHE FORECAST 200 MB WINDS OF THE GFS...AND THE GFDL AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE STILL FORECAST SERGIO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nIN THE LONGER TERM...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST A\r\nDIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO FORM NEAR SERGIO FROM 24-72 HR. \r\nWHAT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON IS HOW MUCH SHEAR THIS RIDGE WILL\r\nPRODUCE.  AFTER 72 HR...THE MODELS AGREE THAT SERGIO SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR...IF IT IS AS FAR NORTH AS FORECAST. \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 12.6N 104.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N 104.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.1N 103.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 13.9N 103.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.1N 104.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 105.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N 106.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-11-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 4.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE AND IN FACT...AN 1152Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A\r\nSMALL EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO 65 KNOTS. SERGIO HAS BECOME THE 10TH HURRICANE\r\nOF THE 2006 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE\r\nOCEAN IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.\r\n \r\nSERGIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS\r\nDRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE\r\nSERGIO TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BOTH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE SHOW SERGIO STILL OVER WATER\r\nBUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT FIVE\r\nDAYS. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF SERGIO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 12.1N 103.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.2N 103.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-11-15 17:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n900 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT THAT SERGIO HAS\r\nINTENSIFIED TO 85 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nPINHOLE EYE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK-T-NUMBERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN A CONSERVATIVELY ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND THE INITIAL AND\r\n12 HOUR WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED.  NO CHANGE IN FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS INDICATED.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1700Z 12.1N 103.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.2N 103.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-11-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006\r\n \r\nSERGIO HAS DEVELOPED A TYPICAL HURRICANE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A\r\nDISTINCT BUT SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nTHERE ARE PLENTY OF CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO\r\nINCREASE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nOF AT LEAST 95 KNOTS. THERE IS ROOM FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE SHEAR IS LOW...BUT A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS SERGIO ENCOUNTERS HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nBUT IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW TAKING A MORE EASTWARD\r\nTRACK. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS BEEN FORCING THE HURRICANE\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD IS FORECAST TO CHANGE AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. THIS EXPECTED FLOW PATTERN\r\nSHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A VERY SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS\r\nEASTWARD. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND CABO CORRIENTES ON MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 4 TO 5\r\nDAYS.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 12.0N 103.6W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 12.0N 103.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 12.8N 103.4W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N 103.7W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N 105.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 107.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-11-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 PM PST WED NOV 15 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING VERY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO'S SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME INCREASINGLY ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. IT IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO KNOW WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY FLUCTUATION OR THE\r\nBEGINNING OF A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 90 KT IN LINE WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nUW-CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nPATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EVOLVING AS PREVIOUSLY SHOWN BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA HAS NOT CLOSED OFF AND THE WEAK RIDGE HAS NOT YET\r\nFORMED OVER MEXICO.  INSTEAD...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AS A\r\nRESULT...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS NOW BEARING DOWN ON THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND MAY ALREADY BE AFFECTING IT.   NONETHELESS...THE GFDL\r\nMODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SERGIO STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nINTO THIS INCREASINGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.  SINCE ANY APPRECIABLE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO A SEEMINGLY HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT...THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY\r\nSCENARIO.  INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODEL AND CALLS FOR NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE\r\nBEGINS TO ENCOUNTER EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND A DRY/STABLE AIR\r\nAIRMASS.  \r\n \r\nSERGIO HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH THE LAST\r\nCOUPLE OF SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/4.  AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN IS COMPLEX...RESULTING IN QUITE A BIT\r\nOF SPREAD AMONG THE AVAILABLE TRACK MODELS.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nIS FLANKED ON THE EAST SIDE BY THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS WHICH\r\nSHOW SERGIO CLIPPING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND NOW THE ECMWF MODEL\r\nSHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT\r\nSERGIO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND THUS TURN NORTHWEST IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MEDIUM BAM MODEL.  WHILE IT IS MUCH TOO\r\nSOON TO SAY WHETHER SERGIO WILL OR WILL NOT AFFECT MEXICO...\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM. \r\n\r\nFOR THE HISTORICALLY CURIOUS...SERGIO IS THE STRONGEST EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC BASIN HURRICANE ON RECORD FOR SO LATE IN THE SEASON. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 12.3N 103.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 12.7N 103.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 103.3W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.6N 103.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.9N 104.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-11-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF SERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEGRADE...\r\nWITH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ELONGATED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION SOMEWHAT RAGGED.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS AT 0249Z\r\nSHOWED THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW ABOUT\r\n15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM DUE TO A DEVELOPING\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM TAFB...90 KT FROM SAB...AND 77 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nSERGIO APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS FORECAST LEFT TURN...WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW 045/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH A\r\nBROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR 12N111W.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREE THE LOW SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWARD FOR ANOTHER 24 HR OR\r\nSO...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO THE WEST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  DESPITE THIS...A\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR\r\nSERGIO.  THE GFDL AND THE NOGAPS ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ARE THE FASTEST...BRINGING THE CENTER TO THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST IN 48-72 HR.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET IS DOWN THE MIDDLE AND SLOWER. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW\r\nWILL TURN SERGIO NORTHWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO IN CASE IT MOVES CLOSER TO\r\nTHE COAST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WEAKENING\r\nDURING THAT PERIOD.  THE MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nBUILD OVER SERGIO FROM 24-72 HR...WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME SHEAR BUT\r\nLIKELY PRODUCE STRONG DIFFLUENCE OR DIVERGENCE OVER THE SYSTEM. \r\nTHE SHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS FORECAST WEAKENING DURING THIS\r\nTIME...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS SERGIO AS A 90-100 KT HURRICANE. \r\nON THE PREMISE THAT THE SHEAR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE DIVERGENCE...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THIS\r\nTIME...ALTHOUGH AT A SLOWER PACE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER\r\n72 HR...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHILE THE DIVERGENCE\r\nDECREASES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 12.5N 103.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.1N 103.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.1N 103.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N 103.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.9N 104.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 106.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N 110.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-11-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 AM PST THU NOV 16 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY NOT AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 24\r\nHOURS AGO. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY\r\nBUT IS WELL DEFINED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA. THE EYE APPEARS TO\r\nBE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTING\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR IS INCREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON THE GRADUAL DECREASE OF DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS.  SERGIO COULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ABOUT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS BUT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING TOWARD AN AREA OF\r\nINCREASING WIND SHEAR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. \r\n\r\nSERGIO HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...SERGIO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND AT THIS TIME...IT KEEPS THE CYCLONE ON\r\nA PATH PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THERE\r\nIS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AND A TRACK CLOSER TO THE\r\nCOAST..AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...IS STILL POSSIBLE. SO MEXICO STAY\r\nTUNED.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 12.9N 103.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 103.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 16.5N 105.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-11-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006\r\n \r\nSERGIO WEAKENED SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE WINDS THE DEEP CONVECTION IS MAKING A LITTLE BIT OF A COMEBACK\r\nAND THE CYCLONE HAS REDEVELOPED A CDO CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0/5.0 OR 65 KT/90\r\nKT.  OVERALL...THE SYSTEM IS ON A WEAKENING TREND AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nAS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS\r\nAND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.    \r\n\r\nSERGIO HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 010/5.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION IN THE NEAR TERM.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND EAST.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST\r\nVARIES UPON THE MODEL REPRESENTATION OF THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF\r\nTHE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE THE CLOSEST TO THE\r\nCOAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE WELL\r\nOFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nBECAUSE RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO MANZANILLO....A PUBLIC\r\nADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 13.6N 102.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 102.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.2N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 21.0N 108.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sergio","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-11-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 PM PST THU NOV 16 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER WEAKENING CONSIDERABLY EARLIER TODAY...SERGIO APPEARS TO BE\r\nHOLDING ITS OWN AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED OVER THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT BASED ON THIS TREND.\r\nNONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BATTLE STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SHEAR WILL BE EVEN\r\nSTRONGER ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. EVEN THE GFDL HAS FINALLY\r\nACKNOWLEDGED SUCH A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND BACKED OFF FROM ITS\r\nEARLIER ROBUST INTENSIFICATION. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FACTOR ARGUING\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE TO FRACTURE AND FORM A CLOSED\r\nLOW...LEAVING A DOWNSTREAM UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER SERGIO. SOME OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SUCH A LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT COULD\r\nUNFOLD IN 1-2 DAYS. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZES...\r\nSERGIO WOULD STILL HAVE TO OVERCOME INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE\r\nAIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT SERGIO WILL GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN...BUT IT DOES PAY RESPECT TO THE POTENTIALLY LESS\r\nHOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BY SHOWING AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 36-48\r\nHOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS SHOW EVEN FASTER\r\nWEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE. \r\n \r\nSERGIO CONTINUES ITS GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nOVERALL FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nIMPARTING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THIS PATTERN WILL\r\nALSO PRODUCE LARGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE DEEP AND SHALLOW LAYER\r\nSTEERING FLOWS.  ACCORDINGLY...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD\r\nAMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS.  A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE\r\nWOULD TEND TO TRACK ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nIN LINE WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND DEEP BAM MODELS.\r\nCONVERSELY...A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM WOULD TEND TO MOVE\r\nCLOSER TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN LINE WITH THE\r\nGFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  IT IS HARD\r\nTO IMAGINE SERGIO REMAINING A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER IN LIGHT OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nSERGIO IS AN EXCELLENT REMINDER THAT THE EFFECTS OF A HURRICANE CAN\r\nEXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER...AS RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND HAVE BEEN AFFECTING COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO TODAY. IT IS FOR THIS REASON...AND THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL\r\nFORECAST UNCERTAINTY...THAT INTERESTS IN MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 13.8N 102.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 102.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.1N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N 104.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.7N 105.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 106.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-11-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006\r\n \r\nSERGIO APPEARS TO BE SHEARING APART THIS MORNING...WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nREMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT THE PRESENT\r\nTIME.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE STILL AT\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DECREASED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THEN...AND THUS SERGIO IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/3.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N112W...WITH\r\nBROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE LOW NEAR\r\nNORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW\r\nTO MOVE WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD\r\nAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT\r\nROUGHLY INTO TWO CLUSTERS.  THE FIRST... WHICH INCLUDES THE CONU...\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE NOGAPS...AND THE GFDL...CALL FOR A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THAT MOTION\r\nCONTINUING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SECOND...WHICH\r\nINCLUDES THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...THE UKMET...AND THE BAM\r\nSHALLOW...CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DOWN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE FIRST CLUSTER.  HOWEVER...IF SERGIO TOTALLY\r\nSHEARS APART LOW-LEVEL STEERING WILL BECOME PREDOMINANT LEADING TO\r\nA TRACK SIMILAR TO THE SECOND CLUSTER.  SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF SERGIO EVOLVES.\r\n\r\nWHILE SERGIO IS CURRENTLY IN A RATHER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE\r\nSLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING TO STOP IN 12-24 HR.  THIS PART\r\nOF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT WEAKER THAN...THE\r\nSHIPS AND SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.  AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY 120 HR.  IF THE\r\nCURRENT SHEAR NOT DECREASE...SERGIO MAY DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE BASIS OF A 0100Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS.  RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE MEXICAN COAST...AND\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF SERGIO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 14.0N 102.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.6N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.2N 103.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 15.9N 104.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N 105.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N 109.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-11-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 AM PST FRI NOV 17 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN DETERIORATING AND NOW CONSISTS OF A\r\nSHAPELESS MASS OF CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO MICROWAVE DATA\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WEST OF THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ALREADY OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THEREFORE A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. SERGIO APPEARS TO BE\r\nDRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 3 KNOTS BUT WITH A\r\nDEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  FURTHERMORE...SERGIO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY BECOME STEERED NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH UNANIMOUSLY SHOW THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  \r\n\r\nRAINBANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAVE BEGUN TO WEAKEN.\r\nTHEREFORE... THE POTENTIAL RAINFALL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 14.2N 102.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.7N 102.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N 103.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 105.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-11-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006\r\n \r\nSERGIO'S LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN DISLOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST BY\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE'S POSITION TO THE SOUTH WAS MADE ONCE VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE THIS MORNING.  SERGIO'S CURRENT MOTION IS A\r\nSLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE\r\nLOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS MODEL IN THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH HAS AN UNREALISTIC INITIAL MOTION TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 40 KT WERE PROVIDED BY THE CIRA AND\r\nCIMSS TECHNIQUES FROM A 1227 UTC AMSU PASS.  HOWEVER...A BLEND OF\r\nTHE DVORAK CI AND DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFGW SUGGEST\r\nAN INTENSITY OF 45 TO 50 KT AT 18 UTC.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED\r\nDETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE AMSU\r\nVALUES...THE ANALYZED INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  DESPITE RATHER\r\nWARM SSTS...THE IMPACT OF WIND SHEAR AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO CAUSE SERGIO TO WEAKEN.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS\r\nCLOSE TO SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nBELOW THE GFDL MODEL WHICH...FOR SOME REASON...CONTINUES TO PREDICT\r\nSERGIO TO BE A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 14.0N 102.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 102.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 14.8N 102.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.6N 103.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.3N 104.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-11-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 PM PST FRI NOV 17 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER BECOMING ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY...A NEW BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY OCCURRED NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  IN LIGHT OF THIS RECENT TREND...SERGIO IS MAINTAINED\r\nAS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM.  WHILE THE CYCLONE COULD CONTINUE TO\r\nPRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY/STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nULTIMATELY CAUSE WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nSERGIO HAS MADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES TOWARD THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BECOMING INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW.  THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM BAM\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 14.5N 103.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.1N 103.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.9N 104.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 106.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 17.0N 107.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-11-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006\r\n \r\nSERGIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER OR VERY NEAR THE\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL\r\nTHREE AGENCIES ARE 45 KT.  AN AMSU PASS AT 0509Z SHOWED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IN THE MID LEVELS...BUT WAS NOT CONCLUSIVE\r\nAS TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 00Z\r\nSUPPORTED 35-40 KT WINDS...BUT THAT WAS BEFORE THE LATEST ROUND OF\r\nCONVECTION.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT IN ACCORD\r\nWITH THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED MICROWAVE\r\nPRESENTATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 325/5.  SUBSTANTIAL\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...SO THE TRACK...AT LEAST IN THE\r\nSHORT RUN...WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN\r\nMAINTAIN.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK MORE TO THE WEST. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE UPPER FLOW OVER\r\nSERGIO EVOLVES AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THIS FLOW WILL HAVE A\r\nLOT TO SAY ABOUT HOW THE VERTICALLY COHERENCE OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nEVOLVES.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR THAN THE UKMET OR NOGAPS MODELS...PARTICULARLY AFTER\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  GIVEN THE PRESENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...I HAVE\r\nSHIFTED THE TRACK A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA/CONU/FSSE CONSENSUS.  AT THE\r\nPRESENT TIME...ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI MODELS INDICATE A DIRECT\r\nTHREAT TO MEXICO.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM SERGIO WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSTREAM NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...WHERE IT COULD INDUCE\r\nSOME DANGEROUS RAINFALLS.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING MORE STRENGTHENING...\r\nAND IF THE UKMET/NOGAPS UPPER-LEVEL FLOW FORECASTS ARE CORRECT THIS\r\nCOULD HAPPEN. HOWEVER...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND WINDS SEEM TO\r\nME TO BE MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF ANALYSIS...SO I AM NOT\r\nWILLING TO MAKE THAT LARGE A CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST JUST YET.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES ASSUME THAT\r\nSERGIO WILL BE ABLE TO HOLD ITS OWN AGAINST THE SHEAR FOR ANOTHER\r\nDAY OR SO BEFORE SUCCUMBING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 14.9N 103.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 103.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.3N 104.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 16.8N 105.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-11-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT \r\nEARLIER TODAY THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...NEW DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY\r\nDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL\r\nSUPPORT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM...IT AINT ALL\r\nABOUT THE OCEAN. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SERGIO RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\nSOME GUIDANCE MAINTAIN OR RESTRENGTHEN SERGIO BUT THIS SOLUTION IS\r\nHARD TO ACCEPT AT THIS TIME WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN THE\r\nWIND SHEAR.  THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE\r\nRULED OUT IF...UNEXPECTETLY...THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT.\r\n \r\nSERGIO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 4 KNOTS.  THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE HAS MATERIALIZED AND THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nFORCE SERGIO ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 105.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-11-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SERGIO IS MAINTAINING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF ITS CIRCULATION TODAY.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 3.5.  ASSUMING THAT\r\nSERGIO'S POSITION IS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CONVECTION...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO REMAIN 45 KT AT THE LOW END OF THE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES.  SERGIO REMAINS OVER QUITE WARM WATER AND A CONDUCIVE\r\nDIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.  HOWEVER...AS THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY ALL\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS\r\nNEAR THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE MODELS...BUT IS\r\nSLIGHTLY ABOVE THAT FORECAST IN THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSERGIO IS MOVING 310/6 ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE.  IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A\r\nSHALLOWER SYSTEM...THEN THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS BASED UPON THE MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE GFDL...WHICH HAS AN\r\nUNREALISTIC INITIAL LOOP.\r\n\r\nA 1320 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A CONTRACTION OF THE GALE FORCE\r\nWIND RADII TO BE ANALYZED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 15.6N 104.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 105.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 16.5N 106.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.8N 107.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-11-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 PM PST SAT NOV 18 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF WANE IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...A NEW SMALL BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...AND THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF T3.0 AND T2.5 DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SERGIO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THAT OF THE GFDL MODEL FORECAST\r\nDUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPEDING THE WESTWARD MOTION\r\nSOMEWHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND ECMWF\r\nMODEL TRACKS.\r\n\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO EXCEED 30 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. WITH SERGIO\r\nREMAINING OVER 29C SSTS...THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL BRIEF CONVECTIVE\r\nBURSTS THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS SERGIO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE\r\nEFFECTS OF HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 15.7N 105.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.1N 105.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 107.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.1N 109.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 111.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-11-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 AM PST SUN NOV 19 2006\r\n \r\nSERGIO REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER AND CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. DVORAK\r\nDATA-T NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE RISEN TO 3.0... CORRESPONDING\r\nTO 45 KT. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE INCREASE IN COLD CLOUD TOPS APPEARS\r\nTO BE DUE TO AN EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY AND NOT TO ANY SUBSTANTIAL\r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTION...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.\r\nWEAKENING REMAINS THE EXPECTATION SINCE THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OCEAN\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29 CELSIUS...HOWEVER...SO SERGIO WILL\r\nPROBABLY WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nSERGIO...WHICH IS TRYING TO FORCE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES ARE\r\nIMPEDING THAT MOTION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 2 KT. \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE RIDGE TO NOT MOVE MUCH...SO THE MOTION OF SERGIO DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD WILL PROBABLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION IT MAINTAINS AND\r\nTHEREFORE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES HAVE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AND\r\nCALLS FOR A CONTINUED CRAWL TO THE WEST THROUGH 36 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER IT IS ASSUMED THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE DECREASED AND THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED A LITTLE FASTER BY THE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD EASTWARD.  SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST HINGES SO MUCH ON HOW\r\nLONG THE CONVECTION HANGS ON...AND SINCE THERE IS SUCH DISPARITY IN\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 15.6N 105.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 15.7N 105.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 15.8N 106.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 15.9N 107.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N 108.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-11-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 AM PST SUN NOV 19 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF SERGIO REMAINS EXPOSED UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS\r\nAROUND 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS BASED ON\r\nSHEAR PATTERNS FROM 1200 UTC REMAIN AT T3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  HOWEVER...FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE PICTURES INDICATE THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS BECOME FURTHER DETACHED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH STILL COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS.  LATEST\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS...FROM 1254 UTC...INDICATED 30-40 KT WINDS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE SOME OF WHICH ARE PROBABLY OVERINFLATED DUE TO\r\nRAIN CONTAMINATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/3.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE HAMPERING THE CYCLONE'S FORWARD MOTION.  AS\r\nTHE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nINCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY TO THE WEST UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OCCURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE\r\nPULLED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED...AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN TWO\r\nDAYS.  THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM\r\nSHIPS...GFDL...AND FSSE.  HOWEVER...BASED UPON THE CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nDEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW COULD OCCUR\r\nFASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 15.3N 105.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.4N 105.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 15.6N 106.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 15.8N 107.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sergio","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-11-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SERGIO AS A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL\r\nSWIRL WITH A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nARE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND T2.0 FROM SAB.  AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nNEW CONVECTIVE BURST...SERGIO WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.  THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AND\r\nWEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED IN 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO...CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3.  SERGIO IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-RIDGE WHICH HAS PUSHED\r\nTHE CYCLONE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT MOST OF DAY.  AS A\r\nRESULT OF THIS SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE CYCLONE IS IN AN AREA OF\r\nSLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR WHICH PROBABLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE REDEVELOPMENT\r\nOF THE CONVECTION.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPINGED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SERGIO TO BE STEERED ON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AS WELL AS WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 15.1N 105.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.2N 106.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 15.4N 107.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sergio","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-11-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 PM PST SUN NOV 19 2006\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION COMES AND GOES IN SPORADIC DISORGANIZED BURSTS...BUT\r\nRECENTLY THESE BURSTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY WELL TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THERE IS STILL A WELL-DEFINED...MOSTLY EXPOSED...\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SERGIO.  GIVEN THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS NOT PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS IT IS ASSUMED THE CYCLONE HAS SPUN DOWN TO BELOW TROPICAL\r\nSTORM INTENSITY.   THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nOUTPUT FROM THE OPERATIONAL SHIPS MODEL SHOWS 30-35 KT OF 850-200\r\nMB VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING SERGIO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHIS IS PROBABLY AN OVERESTIMATE OF THE SHEAR THAT WILL DIRECTLY\r\nIMPACT THE SYSTEM...SINCE IT IS AN AVERAGE OVER A LARGE AREA THAT\r\nINCLUDES EVEN STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF SERGIO.   \r\nHOWEVER EVEN THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS OUTPUT...WHICH IS BASED ON THE\r\nSHEAR AVERAGED OVER A SMALLER AREA OVER THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...SHOWS MORE THAN 25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. \r\nTHIS ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING...AND SERGIO COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED BY\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. \r\nTHIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE WEAKENING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT IS PREDICTED TO TURN TO THE WEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST....BUT NOT AS FAST AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE MEDIUM TO SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 15.0N 106.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.9N 106.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 15.0N 107.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 15.3N 108.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.6N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sergio","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-11-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 AM PST MON NOV 20 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED WITH ALMOST ALL OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST...BUT JUST CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO YIELD DVORAK T NUMBERS OF 2.0 AT 0600 UTC.  VERY RECENTLY\r\nA LITTLE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER.  AN EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0122 UTC SHOWED A FEW 30-KT VECTORS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND STRONGER BUT RAIN-INFLATED VECTORS IN THE CONVECTION. \r\nTHESE DATA SUPPORT KEEPING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN ACCORDANCE WILL ALL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE DUE TO PERSISTENT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SERGIO TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR\r\nONLY ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS...BUT ONE CANNOT BE SURE JUST HOW STUBBORN\r\nTHIS SYSTEM WILL BE IN GIVING UP ITS DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nIT HAS NOT BEEN HARD TO FIND THE CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nABOUT 250/4 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT PERHAPS MORE WESTERLY\r\nTHAN THAT RECENTLY.  AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A GENERAL SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS PRESUMING THE REMNANT LOW WILL NO LONGER BE HINDERED BY THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES PUSHING AGAINST THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...CALLING FOR DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 14.8N 106.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 14.8N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.9N 108.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.1N 109.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 15.4N 110.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sergio","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-11-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n700 AM PST MON NOV 20 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PULSATING CONVECTION ACROSS THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF SERGIO.  THE PROXIMITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO THE CYCLONE'S CENTER YIELDED 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND AFWA OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM SAB.  SINCE THEN...THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS PULLED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER ONCE AGAIN.\r\nEARLY VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN AND\r\nPROVIDES LITTLE ADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE IN DISCERNING THE CENTER. MY\r\nFIRST INCLINATION WAS TO BRING SERGIO BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...\r\nHOWEVER DUE TO THE WEAKENING CONVECTION AND LACK OF AN ORGANIZED\r\nCENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT. SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AROUND 30 TO 35 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE BUT BE SOMEWHAT MORE RELAXED.  EVEN IF THE\r\nSHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS INDICATED BY THE EXPERIMENTAL\r\nSHIPS MODEL...WHICH REDUCES THE AREA THAT COMPUTES THE SHEAR...IT\r\nWILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE CIRCULATION TO RE-CONSOLIDATE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/3.  SERGIO IS CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF A LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nTHE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MIGRATE EASTWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nDISTURBANCE...WEST OF SERGIO...SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT SERGIO WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM AND TAKES THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OCCURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT\r\nSLOWER.\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME EVEN\r\nFURTHER DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION THAN INDICATED...BUT I WILL\r\nWAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY TO DETERMINE IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES...\r\nSUCH AS DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM SOONER THAN INDICATED...ARE\r\nWARRANTED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 14.9N 107.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 15.1N 107.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 15.4N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 15.8N 110.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sergio","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-11-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP212006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP212006\r\n100 PM PST MON NOV 20 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE SERGIO HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE\r\nCOURSE OF THE DAY.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...THE CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE A RESULT\r\nOF CONVERGENCE LINES ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  IN\r\nADDITION...SERGIO NO LONGER HAS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR A WELL-\r\nDEFINED CENTER...WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED AT THE EASTERN\r\nEND OF A TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON SERGIO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\nHOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS CAN\r\nSTILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nIT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANTS OF SERGIO PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nWITH RESPECT TO STATISTICS...SERGIO IS THE LONGEST RUNNING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR NOVEMBER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 14.9N 108.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 15.0N 108.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 15.3N 110.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 15.5N 111.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-05-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SINCE EARLY THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE INITIAL LEG OF THE MISSION WAS FLOWN AT 300 MB FROM\r\nWEST TO EAST OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND SEVERAL DROPSONDES\r\nWERE RELEASED.  THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEAL A RATHER FLAT\r\nTHERMAL CROSS-SECTION...NOT INDICATING A DISCERNIBLE WARM OR COLD\r\nCORE AT ANY VERTICAL LEVEL.  THE WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER...SHOW\r\nWINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nAND DECREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF.  GOES IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY\r\nHAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT HINT OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW WHICH WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT YESTERDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  ALSO...THE\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED FROM MORE THAN 100 N MI\r\nYESTERDAY TO ABOUT 50-60 N MI THIS MORNING.  BASED ON THE HYBRID\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA.  THE 40 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON\r\nAN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA FROM 850\r\nMB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD...ABOUT 270\r\nDEGREES AT 4 KT.  SINCE ANDREA IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED WITHIN A\r\nMIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO\r\nNOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY...BUT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE\r\nNORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SCENARIO PAINTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS...TAKING THE SYSTEM\r\nSLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR\r\nSO.  NONE OF THE MODELS BRING ANDREA INLAND...AND NEITHER DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  ANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS...AND THEY WILL NOT\r\nGET ANY WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THEREFORE A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS.  HOWEVER...SINCE\r\nANDREA MIGHT BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THE COAST...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 30.8N  79.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 30.6N  79.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 30.2N  80.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 29.8N  81.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 29.6N  81.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 29.5N  81.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 29.5N  81.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-05-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007\r\n500 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF ANDREA HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN CONVECTION PARTICULARLY\r\nIN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. SOME BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nPERSIST...HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...AND SHIP WBVY\r\nREPORTED 37 KT WINDS AT 18Z ABOUT 75 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE ANDREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE NEXT QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nOVER OR NEAR ANDREA WILL OCCUR NEAR 00Z THIS EVENING. IN THE\r\nMEANTIME...IT IS REASONABLE TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.\r\nANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NO WARMER THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS...AND\r\nTHE SLOW MOTION SHOWN IN THE TRACK FORECAST PROBABLY MEANS SOME\r\nEVEN COOLER WATERS WILL BE CHURNED UP FROM BENEATH THE SURFACE.\r\nTHEREFORE...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...A\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE SLOPPY CIRCULATION MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE REMAINS SLOW AND\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD OR 265/4.  RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nSYSTEM MIGHT HAVE STARTED SAGGING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE\r\nSUPPORTING REASONING.  SINCE ANDREA IS TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE\r\nMIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO\r\nNOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A SLOW AND GENERALLY\r\nSOUTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME...SOME OF THE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE\r\nDECAYING MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMA...SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES A NEARLY STATIONARY AND DISSIPATING SYSTEM NEAR\r\nTHE COAST BY 72 HOURS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 30.8N  80.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 30.6N  80.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 30.2N  80.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 29.8N  80.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  80.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 29.5N  80.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-05-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL012007","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED MAY 09 2007\r\n \r\nANDREA CONSISTS OF SEVERAL SMALL SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION. MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nEASTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE\r\nPROBABLY CONFINED TO THE CONVECTIVE BAND. A PARTIAL QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MAY BE WEAKER. BECAUSE ANDREA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS IT SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AS \r\nINDICATED BY SHIPS AND GLOBAL MODELS. ONLY THE GFDL MAKES ANDREA A\r\nLITTLE BIT STRONGER.  \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. ONLY A\r\nSMALL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED\r\nBY THE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS \r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED SUGGESTS VERY LITTLE MOTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND\r\nRADII... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 30.5N  79.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 30.4N  80.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  80.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 29.5N  80.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-05-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007\r\n500 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007\r\n \r\nANDREA CONTINUES TO APPEAR RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...WITH LATEST\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR INDICATING SOME WEAK PULSATING\r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHILE THE WESTERN HALF REMAINS\r\nNEARLY CONVECTION FREE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD CONSERVATIVELY TO 35 KT.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM\r\nLATER THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS EXPECT FOR THE NORTH.  LATEST SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM\r\nCIMSS SHOWS 20 KNOTS OF NORTHWEST SHEAR IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AND\r\nDISPLACING THE CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGEST POSSIBLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nTHE ABUNDANCE OF DRY AIR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THERE IS A\r\nCAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IN THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS MAY INTERACT WITH ANDREA IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS A RESULT OF\r\nBEING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nA BIT COMPLEX.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE\r\nGENERALLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AS THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN OPENS\r\nUP AND MOVES EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING REMAINS WEAK. IF\r\nANDREA STILL EXISTS AFTER 72 HOURS...THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF\r\nFORECASTS A FRONT EXITING THE EASTERN U.S. PUSHING THE DISSIPATING\r\nCYCLONE EASTWARD.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY...THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 30.4N  80.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 30.2N  80.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 29.9N  80.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 29.7N  80.2W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 29.5N  80.1W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 29.3N  79.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Andrea","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-05-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS DISAPPEARING QUICKLY AND ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS\r\nREMAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  IT IS THEREFORE NO SURPRISE\r\nTHAT THE STRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS MEASURED AT 1000 FT BY THE\r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING WERE LESS THAN 40\r\nKT.  ANDREA IS DOWNGRADED TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS.  A COMEBACK SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE DRY AND STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...DEPICTED IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  A CONTINUED DECLINE IS FORECAST...AND UNLESS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION REDEVEOPS SOON...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER\r\nQUALIFY AS A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW OR PERHAPS EARLIER.  A REMNANT\r\nLOW CIRCULATION MIGHT PERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEYOND THEN.  IT\r\nIS WORTH NOTING THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nIN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE GFDL IS THE ONLY ONE THAT KEEPS ANDREA\r\nINTACT LONG ENOUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME THIS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS NOT\r\nIMPOSSIBLE...IT IS DISCOUNTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nANDREA CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND MOST MODELS INDICATE THIS\r\nWILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW\r\nHINTS AT AN EASTWARD MOTION BEGINNING ON DAY TWO AS THE LONGWAVE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE...BUT THE\r\nOVERALL MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS BEING\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 29.9N  79.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 29.6N  79.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 29.3N  79.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 29.2N  79.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 29.5N  79.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Andrea","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-05-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007\r\n500 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY ABSENT FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS...AS\r\nINCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT HAVE TAKEN\r\nTHEIR TOLL ON ANDREA.  THE CONVECTION SEEMS UNLIKELY TO RETURN\r\nEXCEPT PERHAPS IN INTERMITTENT BURSTS...SO ANDREA COULD BE\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO\r\nEDGE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND IT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VERY CLOSE\r\nTO WHERE IT IS NOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE ON DAY 3.  BY\r\nTHAT TIME...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nCIRCULATION TO HAVE DISSIPATED.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO\r\nANDREA...TAKE IT NORTHEASTWARD ON DAY 3...AND THEN BECOME THE FOCUS\r\nOF EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS FARTHER NORTH IN THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THAT COULD HAPPEN IF ANDREA REMAINS A DISTINCT\r\nCIRCULATION LONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHAT BECOMES OF ANDREA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 29.6N  79.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 29.2N  79.8W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  79.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 29.2N  79.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 29.6N  78.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Andrea","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-05-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012007\r\n1100 PM EDT THU MAY 10 2007\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH A FEW INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE\r\nOCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...THIS ACTIVITY IS \r\nDISORGANIZED AND WEAK.  ESSENTIALLY...ANDREA HAS BEEN VOID OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON NEARBY SHIP WJBJ.\r\nANDREA CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 180/3.  LACKING APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION...THE REMNANT LOW\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nREMNANT OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOOP CYCLONICALLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS...THE REMNANT LOW COULD HOLD\r\nTOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC\r\nCYCLONE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 29.3N  79.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 29.0N  79.7W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 28.9N  79.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 29.2N  79.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 29.7N  78.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-06-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CHECKED THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AND FOUND THAT THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1000 MB WITH\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KNOTS.  INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO\r\nBE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION. \r\nBARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND IS HEADING\r\nTOWARD COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST.  BARRY SHOULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nBARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS AND\r\nBECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTION OF\r\nTHE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND PANHANDLE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 24.2N  85.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 26.5N  84.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  78.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 41.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM \r\n\r\n$$\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-06-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...STRONG\r\nSHEAR HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES THAT\r\nBARRY IS NOT CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF\r\nAN EXPOSED CENTER SURROUNDED BY A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING\r\nFROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY MAY OCCUR IN THE SHORT TERM...HOWEVER...A GENERAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE FACT\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS. BARRY SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nBARRY HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN CAUSED BY THE MID TO\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD FORCE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE CENTER OF BARRY IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA SATURDAY\r\nAFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE\r\nWELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER SINCE THE STORM IS NOT SYMMETRIC.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MAJORITY OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nCOULD REMAIN BEHIND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR\r\nBUT NONE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS PROVIDED THIS SOLUTION SO FAR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 24.7N  84.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 27.3N  84.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 33.0N  80.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 36.1N  76.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 42.0N  70.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-06-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D\r\nINDCIATE THAT BARRY HAS MINIMAL CENTRAL CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...\r\nWITH THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DUE TO THE SHEAR...THERE\r\nARE NO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE CENTRAL CORE IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE\r\nBARRY IN A FEW HOURS TO SEE IF IT HAS WEAKENED.\r\n\r\nBARRY IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 030/13.  THE STORM SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHIS FLOW SHOULD DRIVE BARRY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD\r\nUNTIL THE U. S. TROUGH ABSORBS THE SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.  ALL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD\r\nIN THE DIRECTION.  THE GFS CALLS FOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK KEEPING\r\nTHE CENTER OVER WATER...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS ARE FARTHER WEST WITH A TRACK NEAR OR JUST INLAND\r\nFROM THE U. S. COAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THESE\r\nPOSSIBILTITES...BEING SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BARRY IS INTERACTING WITH A\r\nNEGATIVELY-TILTED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WITH STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE STORM CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS VERY DIFLUENT...AND\r\nTHUS THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP NEAR THE CENTER\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BARRY IS EXPECTED TO LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES. ONE\r\nCHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO INCREASE THE\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW BARRY TO CONTINUE\r\nAS A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM...WITH GALES EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nUNTIL IT IS ABSORBED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 25.9N  84.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 28.2N  82.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 31.3N  80.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 34.0N  78.6W    40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 36.7N  75.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 44.0N  70.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barry","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-06-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR...SURFACE DATA AND INFORMATION FROM AN AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS\r\nBECOME ELONGATED AND HAS REACHED THE FLORIDA WEST COAST IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF THE TAMPA BAY. THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE DIMINISHED\r\nTO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nDOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND THE WIND SHEAR. THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD INTENSITY AND IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE\r\nGALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nNOTE: TWO TROPICAL STORMS MAKE LANDFALL THIS MORNING WITHIN ABOUT\r\nONE HOUR...BARRY NEAR TAMPA BAY AND BARBARA NEAR THE BORDER OF\r\nMEXICO AND GUATEMALA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 28.0N  82.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 30.5N  81.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 33.5N  79.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 36.0N  76.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 39.5N  73.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/PROENZA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barry","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-06-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022007\r\n500 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2007\r\n \r\nBARRY IS RAPIDLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THIS TRANSITION IS SUPPORTED BY THE\r\nRAIN DISTRIBUTION WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL SOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY GLOBAL MODELS. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE DEVELOPS FURTHER AND MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT\r\n20 TO 25 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BARRY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01\r\nKWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 30.4N  81.6W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  80.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 35.5N  78.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 39.0N  75.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 42.0N  72.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-07-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA EARLIER\r\nTODAY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING CONSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST\r\n15 HOURS OR SO.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...EXPOSED FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE DAY...HAS MADE A COUPLE OF FORAYS UNDERNEATH THE\r\nCONVECTION...AND IS WELL-ENOUGH INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION TO\r\nCONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SHIP REPORTS AND\r\nQUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  WITH ANOTHER\r\nTWELVE HOURS OR SO OVER WARM WATERS...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO REACH STORM STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY DEVELOPMENT\r\nAS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MINIMAL...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A FRONTAL LOW WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nGENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14.  A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE\r\nATLANTIC U.S. COAST WILL STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS GUIDANCE.  THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 36.1N  66.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 38.2N  64.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 42.5N  60.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 47.5N  52.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 52.5N  43.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 58.0N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 61.0N  23.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 65.0N  15.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-07-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCUPYING THE NORTH-\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  AT 0600 UTC...SHIPS C60Y4 AND ZCDM6 REPORTED\r\nSUSTAINED 32 KT AND 31 KT WINDS RESPECTIVELY.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB WERE 2.0...AND UW-CIMSS AUTOMATED 3-HR AVERAGED\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 30 KT AS WELL.  BASED\r\nON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT\r\n30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nEARLIER.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED AHEAD OF A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH AN ACCELERATION\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH 3 OR 4 DAYS.  THE\r\nMODELS...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...OR REMAIN ITS OWN ENTITY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...\r\nALBEIT A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE...KEEPS THE SYSTEM SEPARATE THROUGH 5\r\nDAYS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER 26-27C WATERS...AND A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY REMAINS FOR IT TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nTRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  FSU PHASE-SPACE\r\nDIAGRAMS DERIVED FROM GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST FULL TRANSITION\r\nIN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STRENGTHENING TO A POWERFUL 60 KT STORM IN 3 DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES INDICATE STRENGTHENING BUT IS LESS\r\nBULLISH THAN SHIPS AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 37.8N  64.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 40.4N  62.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 44.5N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 49.2N  47.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 55.0N  37.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 59.0N  28.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 61.0N  21.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 63.0N  13.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-07-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CHANTAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS\r\nMORNING WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A CLEARLY IDENTIFIABLE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER ON SATELLITE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 1000 UTC SHOWED\r\nBELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS IN THE 40-45 KT RANGE AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 45 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUICKLY\r\nMOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED.  GLOBAL COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nCHANTAL WILL BECOME THE MAIN PART OF A LARGE POWERFUL LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A LITTLE ADDITIONAL BAROCLINIC\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN A COUPLE DAYS.  \r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT.  THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION...WITH SOME ACCELERATION...IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO AS CHANTAL IS STEERED BY A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 40.2N  62.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  59.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  52.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 51.2N  44.7W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 56.0N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 60.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 62.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 64.5N  12.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007\r\n\r\nCHANTAL IS MAINTAINING A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES...ALBEIT WITH LESS DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER TODAY. \r\nTHE STORM SHOULD SOON BEGIN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AS\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE STORM SOON DECREASE BELOW 70F\r\nAND IT INTERACTS WITH COOLER AIR OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. \r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  COMPUTER\r\nMODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS...FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A\r\nSTRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nCHANTAL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A 12 HOUR MOTION OF\r\nABOUT 23 KT.  A DEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE STORM OVER EASTERN CANADA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THE STORM'S MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK\r\nTAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 41.7N  61.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 44.5N  57.3W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 48.6N  49.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 53.5N  40.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 57.0N  34.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 60.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 62.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 64.0N  12.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032007\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CHANTAL IS RAPIDLY BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WAS WRAPPING AROUND THE \r\nCENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45\r\nKT.  AS CHANTAL PASSED VERY NEAR BUOY 44912 AROUND 2300 UTC...THE\r\nBUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995.1 MB.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY INTO A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 2-3 \r\nDAYS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/28.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY OR SO. \r\nON THIS TRACK...EXTRATROPICAL CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR\r\nVERY NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. \r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...THE MODEL SPREAD IS MUCH GREATER...WITH THE ECMWF\r\nSHOWING A SLOWER MOTION THAN EITHER THE GFS OR NOGAPS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE\r\nGFS GLOBAL MEAN ENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nCHANTAL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 43.6N  58.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 46.6N  53.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 51.7N  45.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 56.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 57.9N  32.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 60.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 62.0N  16.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 65.5N   8.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 13 2007\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS REVEALS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR EASTERN\r\nTROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...BUT IT IS\r\nMOSTLY CONFINED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0723Z THIS MORNING\r\nONLY CAPTURED THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS\r\nINDICATES SOME BELIEVABLE 30-KT WINDS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nBASED ON THE CURVED BAND PATTERN AT 12Z WERE 25-30 KT...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nDEPTH AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED SINCE 12Z.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS\r\nMORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/18...BUT MORE\r\nRECENT VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE CENTER MIGHT BE\r\nEVEN A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ADVISORY POSITION.  WITH THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND\r\nBUILD WESTWARD...A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MIGHT\r\nPERSIST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE TRACK SHOULD BE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD AND FAIRLY BRISK.  A VERY GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AND A\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN ON DAY THREE AS\r\nTHE RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND GFS.\r\n\r\nTHE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS...EVEN\r\nTHOSE THAT DO NOT HAVE A STRONG REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ITSELF...FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER AND\r\nNEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES.  COMBINED WITH WARM SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK...CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS NEARLY HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE\r\nGFDL FORECAST INTENSITY EXCEEDS 100 KT AT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST THREE\r\nDAYS...THEN INDICATES A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE...BUT IS NOT AS\r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST IN\r\nBOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT LONG RANGES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 12.0N  31.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 12.0N  34.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 11.9N  38.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 11.9N  41.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 11.9N  44.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 16.0N  63.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MAINTAINING ITSELF IN THE FACE OF EASTERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING TODAY AND\r\nHAS REMAINED DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nMETEOSAT-9 HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGERY CLEARLY REVEALED THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MORE RECENTLY\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND PARTIALLY OBSCURED THE CENTER.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTD FOUR IS STILL RACING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 265/17. A CONTINUED BRISK AND GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AHEAD OF NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING\r\nTHAT PERIOD...AS THE MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON\r\nTHE FAST INITIAL SPEED. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS. SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING...ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO FORECASTING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODELS...BUT REMAINS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SINCE THE GUIDANCE COULD SHIFT\r\nBACK THE OTHER WAY LATER.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE WHILE THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nWILL INCREASE ALONG THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AN\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION IS\r\nTHE ECMWF...WHICH FORECASTS A STRONGER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 4-5 DAYS WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nSHEAR.  THAT MODEL...HOWEVER...DOES NOT REPRESENT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WELL...AND IT MIGHT NOT HAVE GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD MODIFY THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS 63\r\nKT AT 72 HOURS AND 75 KT BY FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM REACHES 84\r\nKT AT 120 HOURS. MEANWHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST 90 AND 84\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...AT FIVE DAYS. CONSIDERING THIS GUIDANCE...THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING BUT\r\nRETAINS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY AT THE\r\nLONGER RANGES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 11.9N  33.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 11.8N  35.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 11.8N  38.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 11.8N  41.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 12.1N  44.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N  50.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N  61.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2007\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CERTAINLY NOT IMPROVED THIS\r\nEVENING.  THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME\r\nELONGATED EAST TO WEST AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE PLAGUED BY\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON CAUGHT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT. THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE ALSO SUPPORT 30 KT AND THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/17.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE FASTER THAN\r\nVIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. \r\nTHEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWILL WEAKEN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR\r\nWILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nGRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.  THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 12.0N  35.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 12.0N  37.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 12.0N  40.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 12.2N  43.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 12.6N  46.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 13.8N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 16.0N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 18.5N  62.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-08-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nOVERALL CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OR THE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED\r\nAND IS ELONGATED EAST TO WEST WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDISPLACED WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN CONCURRENCE WITH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...SHOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL... HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ARE NOW\r\nFORECASTING PEAK INTENSITIES OF 110 KT...104 KT...AND 92 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE PRESENT LACK OF\r\nORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS NEAR THE LOWER END OF\r\nTHE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS PRACTICALLY UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH...THE\r\nDEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR 270/18.  THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nREDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY DAYS 4-5...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE\r\nDUE TO DIFFERING FORECASTS OF AN MID/UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW\r\nEXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST.  THE\r\nUKMET QUICKLY DISSIPATES THE LOW...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO\r\nBUILD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  CONVERSELY...THE GFS SHOWS THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINING STATIONARY...PRODUCING A GAP IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF...AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 12.0N  36.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 12.0N  39.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 12.1N  42.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 12.3N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 12.7N  47.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N  53.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 16.0N  59.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 18.5N  63.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-08-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND QUIKSCAT MEASUREMENTS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND ALSO THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nINDICATED. DEAN HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER\r\nTHE CENTER BUT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS STILL LOCATED TO THE WEST\r\nAND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST SINCE THE CYCLONE IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS DEAN. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT DEAN COULD BE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES AS A HURRICANE\r\nWITH 100 TO 110 KNOTS IN FIVE DAYS. \r\n\r\nDEAN APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 265 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS EXPANDING\r\nWESTWARD. IN THE SHORT TERM...2 TO 3 DAYS...DEAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE\r\nSOME RELIABLE MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND OTHERS SHOW A\r\nWEAKER RIDGE RESULTING IN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE BIT TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND NOT BECAUSE WE HAVE CHANGED THE FORECAST REASONING.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 11.7N  39.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.8N  42.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 11.8N  45.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 11.8N  48.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 12.0N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N  56.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  65.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-08-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN'S STRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION\r\nHAS WANED AND REMAINS ESPECIALLY LIMITED IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION. BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB GAVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHILE AN AMSU PASS\r\nAT 1623 UTC SUGGESTED A SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER INTENSITY. GIVEN THE\r\nLACK OF CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE INTENSITY OF DEAN IS KEPT AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF DEAN IS 265 DEGREES AT 18 KT...A BIT SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY.  DEAN IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND\r\nFASTER COMPARED TO THE 06 UTC RUNS...PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAKER AND\r\nLESS DIGGING TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY DAY 5.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...TRACK\r\nSOLUTIONS FOR THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER BECAUSE THEY DO NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEAN'S FAST INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nDEAN IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...IS\r\nOVER 27.5C SSTS...AND IS WITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD DROP WHILE THE SSTS WARM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE\r\nENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE A CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...\r\nGFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM THROUGH 72 HR.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST RELIES PRIMARILY UPON THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS.  BY DAY\r\n5...DEAN IS FORECAST TO BE A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE AND COULD\r\nREACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 11.6N  41.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 11.7N  43.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 12.0N  46.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 12.3N  50.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 12.6N  53.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 14.0N  59.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  64.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  69.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER THE CONVECTION WANED THIS AFTERNOON...A NEW BURST HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE\r\nSOMEWHAT RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND 2100 UTC...A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT THAT TIME DETECTED A RATHER WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH\r\nBELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS. WITH A NOD TO THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A POSSIBLY\r\nCONSERVATIVE 45 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED AS DEAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH SOMEWHAT VARYING FORWARD\r\nSPEEDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS FASTER THAN THE NOGAPS\r\nAND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE INITIALIZING THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION OF DEAN. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF AND GFS MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THESE MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DEAN IS\r\nBEGINNING TO DECREASE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE BRINGS DEAN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS...AND NEAR THE\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE THRESHOLD BY DAY 5.  \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 12.0N  42.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 12.2N  44.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.4N  48.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 12.8N  51.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 13.4N  55.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N  66.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N  71.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEAN HAS MORE OF A BANDED\r\nAPPEARANCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT YET\r\nWELL-DEFINED.  WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED...IT MAY BE\r\nTHAT A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE\r\nSTORM AND INFLOW FROM OVER THE COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH ARE\r\nSLOWING AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE EARLIER\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY UNCERTAIN 275/16...UNCERTAIN DUE TO\r\nAMSU MICROWAVE DATA HINTING THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE ADVISORY POSITION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEAN IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE... WITH A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN BETWEEN\r\n64W-77W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY FILL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH RIDGING PERSISTING\r\nNORTH OF DEAN.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES IN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...AS THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED FROM\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAHAMAS TO A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72\r\nHR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER\r\nBASED ON THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.  THE NEW\r\nTRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE\r\nGFS.\r\n\r\nDEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS AND WARM WATER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT DEAN COULD BE\r\nNOTABLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 12.2N  44.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 12.4N  46.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 12.8N  50.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 13.2N  53.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 13.8N  57.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N  63.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N  68.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN.  HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE BEEN INCREASING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A\r\nBLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT\r\nESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL\r\nMAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nBEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY\r\nCONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.\r\nTHIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD\r\nUNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER\r\nRIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN\r\nPREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE.  THE ONLY\r\nNEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nSTABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT\r\nENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL\r\nFORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 12.4N  46.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 12.7N  48.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 13.1N  52.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N  55.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.2N  59.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  66.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N  72.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  78.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE WARMED RECENTLY...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nINDICATE A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. AMSU AND\r\nTRMM MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE ALSO SUGGESTED THE FORMATION OF A\r\nPARTIAL EYEWALL. MOST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE INCREASING...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE\r\nPAST SIX HOURS...AROUND 285/19. THIS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF DEAN STRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT...FORCING THE STORM ON MORE\r\nOF A WESTWARD COURSE TOMORROW. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST THAT\r\nANY INTERACTION WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nBAHAMAS WILL BE LIMITED AS THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE\r\nWESTWARD AS AN INVERTED TROUGH WELL AHEAD OF DEAN. NUMERICAL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING THE\r\nSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 5\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HOURS...BUT IS MUCH FASTER AND TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT\r\nSEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION\r\nOF DEAN.  GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS\r\nINTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM\r\nWATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL\r\nHURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 13.1N  47.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N  50.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.1N  54.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.6N  58.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.1N  62.3W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  69.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N  83.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH A 2311 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTING THAT A SMALL BANDING\r\nEYE FEATURE MAY BE FORMING. THE 00Z DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE 55 KT...HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS\r\nIMPROVED SINCE THEN AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 60 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/20. DEAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nLOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ON THIS MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD...BUT STILL IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION INTO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN DEAN AND A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER\r\nTHE BAHAMAS...AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE THE TROUGH WESTWARD AHEAD OF\r\nDEAN. THE NOGAPS IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE THE TROUGH WEST AND ITS\r\nTRACK IS THEREFORE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THE REST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SEEMINGLY FEW FACTORS THAT WOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION...THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER DEAN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\nMYSTERIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR\r\nRESPECTIVE INTENSITY FORECASTS.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE STEADY STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE \r\nINVESTIGATING DEAN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV\r\nWILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z\r\nANALYSIS CYCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 13.1N  50.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.6N  53.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.2N  57.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.8N  61.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.3N  64.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 16.3N  71.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 17.8N  78.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL\r\nGLIMPSES OF AN EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -70C NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO DEAN IS UPGRADED TO THE FIRST\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF\r\nFLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE\r\nINTERACTION WITH DEAN.   THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN\r\nMOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK\r\nTHROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE\r\nDAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE TO KEEP DEAN FROM STRENGTHENING THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH\r\n115 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHILE THE EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODEL\r\nIS CALLING FOR 127 KT.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR DEAN TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH ODDLY ENOUGH IT\r\nCALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 60 HR OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD FOR THE\r\nFIRST 96 HR IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nINVESTIGATING DEAN THIS AFTERNOON..AND THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV\r\nWILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION FOR THE 17/00Z\r\nANALYSIS CYCLE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 13.4N  52.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 13.9N  55.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N  59.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 14.9N  63.0W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.4N  66.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  73.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N  87.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY. THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL\r\nCLOUD-FILLED EYE THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE\r\nHIGHER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN THE EYE OF DEAN LATER TODAY TO\r\nOBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. WIND AND MAXIMUM SEAS\r\nDATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41010 WERE CRITICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE SHOULD\r\nCONTROL DEAN'S MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD\r\nFORCE THE HURRICANE ON A SPEEDY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nDEAN WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nATTEMPT TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AS WELL...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL.  IT IS\r\nSTALLING A MIDDLE-LEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS...IN THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE HURRICANE TO MOVE\r\nMORE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS\r\nSOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT 120 HR IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE GFDL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AROUND\r\nDEAN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEEP WARM\r\nWATER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...DEAN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES\r\nA BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH DEVELOP THIS\r\nSYSTEM INTO AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE BY THE TIME\r\nIT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION\r\nFOR THE 17/00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 13.7N  54.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.1N  57.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.6N  61.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.1N  64.9W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.6N  68.4W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N  75.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N  82.5W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 21.0N  89.0W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF DEAN\r\nAND THE DATA SO FAR INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN\r\nFLUCTUATION BETWEEN 974 AND 979 MB. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT\r\n85 KNOTS. THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE\r\nEXPANSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT DEAN IS STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME. DEAN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CARRY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WITH IT...ON ITS WESTWARD TRACK\r\nACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THIS PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING.\r\nONCE DEAN REACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVES OVER AN AREA OF\r\nVERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT...IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND WITH DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...MAINLY THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH MAKE DEAN A VERY\r\nINTENSE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nDEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. A STRONG\r\nAND DEEP ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF DEAN.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WESTWARD STEERING DURING THE\r\nNEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS WITH SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT AS THE\r\nHURRICANE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE HIGH BY DAY FIVE.  TRACK MODELS\r\nARE IN OUTSTANDING AGREEMENT BRINGING THE HURRICANE ACROSS THE\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA. THIS ADDS CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE FRENCH BUOY...41001...RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50\r\nKNOTS. THIS INFORMATION HELPED WITH ESTIMATES OF THE WIND RADII.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 14.0N  56.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N  59.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.0N  63.5W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  70.5W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  78.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  84.5W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN HAS DETERIORATED A BIT OVER THE\r\nLAST 12 HOURS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL OR\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON THE EARLIER AIR FORCE\r\nFLIGHT RECORDED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 88 KT AROUND 19Z IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE EYEWALL...ALONG WITH VERY LITTLE WIND IN\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE EARLIER\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT STRUCTURAL TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 85 KT.  COMMUNICATIONS DIFFICULTIES DURING THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION PREVENTED MUCH OF THE DATA FROM GETTING TO\r\nUS...BUT DROPSONDE DATA CALLED IN AFTERWARD BY THE CREW INDICATE\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...\r\nABOUT 976 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/22. DEAN IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nDO SO FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE GUIDANCE IS VERY\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK OF DEAN WILL DEPEND ON\r\nHOW MUCH INTERACTION THERE IS BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALL THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MOVES THIS LOW WESTWARD OUT OF THE WAY\r\nAND SHOWS VERY LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...AND HENCE ONLY\r\nA MODEST RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK ON DAYS 4 AND 5.   THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS AT LONG\r\nRANGES HOWEVER...A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT\r\nOUT OF THE QUESTION.\r\n\r\nDEAN CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THIS\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT TWO TO\r\nTHREE DAYS.  DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV MISSION THIS EVENING SHOW NO\r\nEVIDENCE OF UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE NEAR ENVIRONMENT...\r\nAND THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE CARIBBEAN.  THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nLESS FAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY IF THE UPPER\r\nLOW LAGS A BIT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ENDS UP IN THE SAME\r\nPLACE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 14.1N  58.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N  61.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.1N  65.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N  69.2W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.4N  72.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  80.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N  86.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.0N  92.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DEAN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN EITHER\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OR IMAGERY FROM THE FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE. \r\nTHERE ARE ONLY OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A RAGGED EYE ON RADAR...AND\r\nTHE EYEWALL HAS BEEN AT BEST ABOUT 50 PERCENT COVERAGE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE\r\nUNCHANGED FROM EARLIER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/21.  DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HR WITH\r\nDEAN REMAINING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE SEEMINGLY RESPONDED TO THE G-IV JET\r\nMISSION BY SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF DEAN...WITH A\r\nMOTION THAT IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS.  GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION...THE FIRST 12 HR OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL BE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT FROM 12-72 HR.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...THE FORECAST IS BECOMING MORE PROBLEMATIC DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES\r\nIN THE EVENTUAL INTERACTION OF DEAN AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nFORECAST TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS\r\nNOW CALL FOR DEAN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nGULF...WHILE THE CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND EUROPEAN MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE GFS AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS ARE\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR IS ALSO\r\nNUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF DEAN HAS APPARENTLY BEEN SLOWED BY A COMBINATION\r\nOF DRY AIR INTRUSION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND LIGHT WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THESE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HR...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. \r\nAFTER 24 HR...CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR\r\nDEAN TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS THE SAME AS IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HR...THEN\r\nSLIGHTLY STRONGER THEREAFTER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nWEAKENING FROM 96 TO 120 HR IS BASED ON DEAN CROSSING THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA...AND IF IT INSTEAD MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL IT\r\nCOULD REMAIN STRONGER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 14.3N  60.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.7N  63.6W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.3N  67.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.1N  70.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.9N  74.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N  81.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N  87.0W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.0N  92.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DEAN CROSSED THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS MORNING BETWEEN\r\nST. LUCIA AND MARTINIQUE AS INDICATED BY THE MARTINIQUE RADAR.  AT\r\n0842 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MARTINIQUE REPORTED\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF 66 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 90 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE\r\nPLANE REACHED THE HURRICANE AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 964\r\nMB...FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KNOTS AND A CLOSED EYEWALL.  THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH\r\nPLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. LATEST\r\nVISIBLE IMAGE SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE.  BOTH SATELLITE PRESENTATION\r\nAND DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE PLANE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n90 KNOTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nSINCE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE\r\nCARIBBEAN. DEAN COULD BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS THE\r\nHIGHEST. IN FACT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF\r\nSHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OF DEAN...280/18...CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY A STRONG\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nBAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO RUN WESTWARD AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE AND THE\r\nONLY POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE IS TO ADD A\r\nSMALL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LATER PERIODS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A\r\nSLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH DUE TO THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS.\r\nTHE GFDL SOLUTION INSISTS ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL...BRINGING DEAN INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO\r\nAS A STRONGER HURRICANE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT GUIDANCE FOR DAY 4 AND 5 IS MORE UNCERTAIN\r\nTODAY THAN YESTERDAY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 14.6N  62.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.0N  65.5W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N  69.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.7N  72.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  75.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  82.0W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  88.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 24.0N  94.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-08-17 17:45:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n145 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF HURRICANE DEAN TO 110 KNOTS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WIND\r\nDATA OF 124 KNOTS JUST MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT. THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nACCORDINGLY.  THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE 2 PM AST\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORY.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1745Z 14.8N  63.6W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.0N  65.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N  69.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.7N  72.3W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  75.5W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  82.0W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  88.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 24.0N  94.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE EARLIER TODAY\r\nINDICATED THAT DEAN REACHED 110 KNOTS.  NEXT PLANE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREACH DEAN AROUND 00 UTC TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nAN EYE FEATURE...NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nWHICH ARE STILL AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.\r\nTHE  OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN TEMPERATURE INCREASES WESTWARD. THIS\r\nWOULD CALL FOR AN OVERALL UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS....GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FLORIDA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN AND MOVE WESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD MAINTAIN DEAN OVER THE CARIBBEAN ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THE GFDL SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS EXTREME\r\nWESTERN CUBA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS\r\nOUTSIDE THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT CAN NOT BE RULE\r\nOUT COMPLETELY SINCE THIS MODEL HAS AN EXCELLENT FORECAST TRACK\r\nHISTORY.   THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE\r\nTHROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nDEAN.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 15.0N  64.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  67.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.4N  70.8W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N  74.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N  77.0W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  84.0W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.0N  90.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 24.5N  96.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 17 2007\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED ERRONEOUS INDICATOR OF INLAND AT 96 HOURS IN TABLE...\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS BEEN STEADILY INTENSIFYING TONIGHT.  THE U.S. AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 138 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 124 KT AT THE SURFACE.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE AIRCRAFT IS EQUIPPED WITH THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER WHICH MEASURED WINDS AS STRONG AS 123 KT THIS\r\nEVENING.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN\r\nDROPPING...WITH THE LATEST AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENT BEING 937 MB.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THE\r\nSTORM HAS BECOME A GOOD BIT LARGER...AND WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nEXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS.  DEAN MIGHT ALSO HAVE A CLOSE ENCOUNTER\r\nWITH NOAA BUOY 42059...LESS THAN 100 N MI DIRECTLY AHEAD OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE HURRICANE...IN A FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16...JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON A TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS NOTABLY\r\nDISAGREE AND HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH...INCLUDING\r\nTHE NORTHERN OUTLYING GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED NOTICEABLY...SINCE THE MODELS MIGHT SHIFT BACK THE\r\nOTHER WAY.  THE SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS AT DAYS FOUR AND\r\nFIVE IS INDICATIVE OF THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES TYPICAL OF THOSE\r\nLONGER FORECAST RANGES.  THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT AND\r\nGRAPHICAL PRODUCTS INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE ALSO REFLECT\r\nTHESE UNCERTAINTIES.  THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nSIMILAR AT EACH LOCATION ALONG THE ENTIRE WESTERN AND NORTHERN\r\nCOASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DIFFERENTIATE\r\nTHE RISK OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BETWEEN ANY OF THESE LOCATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSITY OF DEAN...GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND WARM WATERS\r\nAHEAD...WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL STRUCTURAL CHANGES\r\nAND/OR BRIEF INTERACTIONS WITH LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR AN INTENSITY NEAR THE CATEGORY 4/5 THRESHOLD THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...AND IS ONLY LOWERED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO POTENTIAL\r\nPASSAGE OVER YUCATAN.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 14.9N  65.9W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  68.4W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.4N  71.7W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N  75.0W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N  78.4W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N  85.5W   140 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N  91.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 25.0N  97.5W   110 KT...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":21,"Date":"2007-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007\r\n \r\nNEAR 0500 UTC...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED 154 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL OF\r\nDEAN...AND ALSO REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 930 MB. \r\nTHE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD HAVE JUSTIFIED CALLING DEAN A CATEGORY\r\nFIVE HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...DATA FROM DROPSONDES...THE STEPPED-\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nDID NOT SUPPORT THAT STATUS.  THE INTENSITY WAS THUS SET TO A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE 130 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DEAN SINCE THE AIRCRAFT LEFT...SO 130\r\nKT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/15...AGAIN SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE. \r\nDEAN CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nWHICH SHOULD BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA MOVES WESTWARD.  IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK TOWARD JAMAICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW\r\nTHIS...WITH THE TRACK DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.   AFTER THAT...UKMET...GFS...AND\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR A MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE TEXAS COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF\r\nAND NOGAPS CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL\r\nYUCATAN AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nSINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH\r\n72 HR DUE TO INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MAXIMUM\r\nPOTENTIAL INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE SIGNIFICANT\r\nFLUCTUATIONS ON TOP OF THIS DUE TO DIFFICULT TO TIME EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES.  PASSAGE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD\r\nCAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY RE-INTENSIFICATION OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.1N  67.3W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.6N  69.6W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  72.8W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.6N  76.4W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N  80.0W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N  86.5W   140 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 22.5N  92.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 24.5N  98.0W   115 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":22,"Date":"2007-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF DEAN THIS MORNING AND FOUND\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE HAS NOT WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 130 KNOTS. IN FACT...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE DROPPED TO 924\r\nMB AT AROUND 1200 UTC AND THEN UP TO 929 MB JUST RECENTLY. DEAN\r\nWILL LIKELY GO THROUGH EYEWALL CYCLES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nRESULTING IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. HOWEVER...THE PEAK\r\nINTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nBETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN WHERE THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT\r\nIS VERY HIGH.  DEAN COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE AT ANY TIME BEFORE\r\nIT REACHES YUCATAN.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN HAS BEEN VERY STEADY. DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS STEERED BY A HIGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND A LOW OVER FLORIDA.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD AND BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WILL KEEP DEAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST\r\nTRACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE DIRECTION OF JAMAICA...THE\r\nCAYMAN ISLANDS AND YUCATAN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK MODELS\r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH INSISTS ON A TRACK FARTHER TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND JUST CLIPPING THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.7N  68.6W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.4N  71.0W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N  74.3W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.3N  77.8W   125 KT...NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.5N  81.4W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N  88.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 25.4N 100.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":23,"Date":"2007-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF DEAN\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINTO THE EYE MEASURED 930 MB AND THE REPORTED WINDS SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 130 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CREW OBSERVED A\r\nDOUBLE EYEWALL AND THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROBABLY\r\nRESULT IN SHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION IS OUTSTANDING WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE...NUMEROUS\r\nSPIRAL BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW. WITH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW\r\nSHEAR AND VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BETWEEN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS\r\nAND YUCATAN...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE. IN\r\nFACT...DEAN COULD BECOME A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE\r\nHURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE IT REACHES YUCATAN.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS HEADING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 285\r\nDEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST GLOBAL\r\nMODEL RUNS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK\r\nOR SPEED THROUGH 5 DAYS...BUT PERHAPS WITH A SLIGHT TURN MORE TO THE\r\nWEST IN A DAY OR SO. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT BRINGS THE\r\nHURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES\r\nALONG WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND KEEPS DEAN IN\r\nTHE BAY OF CAMPECHE OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY FOUR. THERE\r\nCOULD BE VERY UNCERTAIN DAYS AHEAD SINCE THE GFDL HAS HAD A VERY\r\nRELIABLE TRACK RECORD.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.1N  70.2W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N  72.6W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N  76.0W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N  79.3W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  83.0W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  90.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 23.0N  96.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N 101.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":24,"Date":"2007-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 18 2007\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING SOME CHANGES.  RADAR\r\nIMAGERY ONBOARD THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPICTS\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AT RADII OF ABOUT 10 AND 20 N MI...WITH THE\r\nOUTER EYEWALL RECENTLY BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO REVEALED DOUBLE MAXIMA.  WIND DATA AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL...FROM THE SFMR...AND FROM DROPSONDES DIRECTLY SUPPORT\r\nAN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 115 KT.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DROPPING AND WAS MOST\r\nRECENTLY MEASURED AT 918 MB.  ASSUMING THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND HAS\r\nNOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 125 KT...BUT\r\nTHIS COULD BE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE.  THE AIRCRAFT WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO INVESTIGATE DEAN FOR A FEW MORE HOURS TO SEE IF THE WINDS COME\r\nBACK UP.\r\n\r\nDEAN WOBBLED WESTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT THE LONGER-TERM\r\nMOTION TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED. AS\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT\r\nWAS EAST OF FLORIDA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO IS NOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND HEADED QUICKLY WESTWARD. THAT LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE REPLACED BY A LARGE AND STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nREINFORCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF DEAN...THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...OVER SOME PORTION OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA...AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS HAVE\r\nIN GENERAL SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH IS\r\nNO LONGER THE NORTHERN OUTLIER. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A TAD TO THE SOUTH AND IS\r\nVERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE\r\nDOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE...BUT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW AND\r\nTHE INNER CORE COULD QUICKLY REORGANIZE AT ANY TIME...SO ANY DIP IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED.  THROUGHOUT ITS STAY IN\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE\r\nINTENSITY AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  SINCE THE\r\nNEW TRACK FORECAST RESULTS IN A LONGER STAY OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED\r\nSLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT STILL INDICATES\r\nA MAJOR HURRICANE AT FINAL LANDFALL.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.2N  71.7W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.8N  74.3W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.6N  77.8W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.4N  81.4W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 19.3N  85.1W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N  92.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 23.0N  98.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 24.0N 101.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":25,"Date":"2007-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007\r\n\r\nTHE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BY THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS WAS AT 0511 UTC.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 921 MB BY DROPSONDE AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 130\r\nKT OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nLESS DISTINCT EYE WITH SOME WARMING OF THE SURROUNDING CLOUD\r\nTOPS...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD\r\nSYMMETRY AND STRONG OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY\r\nBE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  IF INDEED DEAN HAS WEAKENED...THIS \r\nIS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INNER CORE PROCESSES...AND IS PROBABLY ONLY\r\nA SHORT-TERM CHANGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nENVIRONMENT STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...\r\nSO....ASIDE FROM INNER-CORE-RELATED FLUCTUATIONS...DEAN HAS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL TO ATTAIN CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...\r\nSHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE GUIDANCE.  INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA WILL CAUSE WEAKENING...AND THE AMOUNT OF RE-STRENGTHENING\r\nOF DEAN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEPENDS MAINLY ON HOW\r\nLONG THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nASIDE FROM THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES THAT ARE COMMON WITH SUCH INTENSE\r\nHURRICANES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16.  AS\r\nTHE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nCONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ANY\r\nCHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST\r\n48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD BE CONSIDERED COSMETIC.  WE HAVE SHIFTED THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...U.K. MET.\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS.  \r\n\r\nIT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. \r\nCONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF\r\nTHIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A\r\nPOSITION AND INTENSITY FIX ON DEAN AROUND 1200 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 16.6N  73.4W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.1N  76.0W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 17.9N  79.5W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.7N  83.0W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 19.5N  86.6W   140 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N  93.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 22.5N  99.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 23.5N 103.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":26,"Date":"2007-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n142 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT THE CURRENT\r\nESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY\r\nRISING...THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS...AND THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nSTRUCTURE.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE COULD BE SOME BROADENING OF\r\nTHE WIND FIELD WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH AS THE CORE OF DEAN\r\nAPPROACHES JAMAICA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE DEEP WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/16...WITH SOME EMBEDDED WOBBLES.  AS\r\nTHE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nCONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.0N  75.1W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N  77.7W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 18.3N  81.2W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N  84.5W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.9N  88.2W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N  95.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":27,"Date":"2007-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COMPLETED ITS MISSION...FINDING PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 144 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 121 KT.  ONE\r\nOF THE LAST EYEWALL DROPSONDES GAVE A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 118 KT\r\nDERIVED FROM THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING.  IN SPITE OF A\r\nGRADUAL PRESSURE RISE...THESE DATA INDICATE THAT 125 KT IS STILL A\r\nGOOD INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS ARE APPARENT IN\r\nMICROWAVE...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS NOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.  SHORT-TERM\r\nINTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE GOVERNED BY INNER-CORE PROCESSES THAT ARE\r\nDIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nWOULD FAVOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND DEAN COULD VERY WELL\r\nBECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST THINKING...ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD...WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILDING THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH DEAN. THE UPPER LOW IN\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES WESTWARD AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nMAJOR PLAYER IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...BUT STILL LIES TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF ALL THE MAJOR MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF. ALTHOUGH I\r\nCANNOT EXPLAIN WHY...THE DETERMINISTIC RUN OF THE GFS IS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEMBERS ARE ALMOST UNIFORMLY ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE. BECAUSE MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE MODELS LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK ARE POSSIBLE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.3N  76.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.8N  79.4W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.4N  83.0W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N  86.5W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.9N  90.0W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N  96.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N 101.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":28,"Date":"2007-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF DEAN HAS BEEN PASSING JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA SINCE ABOUT\r\n1900 UTC AND HAS JUST CROSSED THE LONGITUDE OF NEGRIL ON THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE ISLAND.  THE CENTER CAME WITHIN ABOUT 20 N MI OF\r\nPORTLAND POINT ON THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO KINGSTON.  WHILE PASSING BY JAMAICA...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THE EYE DIAMETER WAS GRADUALLY\r\nSHRINKING.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARRIVED IN THE\r\nEYE OF DEAN AT 0130 UTC AND REVEALED THAT THE PRESSURE HAD FALLEN\r\nTO NEAR 925 MB...AND THAT DEAN NOW HAS A SINGLE EYEWALL AT A\r\nDIAMETER OF ABOUT 15 N MI.  MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR\r\nHAVE BEEN 121 KT...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 143\r\nKT...BOTH OF WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT\r\n125 KT.\r\n \r\nDEAN IS HEADING TOWARD 280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 17 KT WITH STEERING\r\nPROVIDED BY A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE RIDGE WILL GET EVEN\r\nSTRONGER AND MOVE A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH DEAN...MEANING THAT DEAN\r\nWILL PROBABLY MOVE IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL\r\nIN MEXICO.  OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN EDGED A LITTLE\r\nSOUTHWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NOAA\r\nGULFSTREAM-IV JET CONDUCTED A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION THIS\r\nEVENING TO PROVIDE DATA FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE.  THE JET WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO FLY MISSIONS EVERY 12 HOURS TO COLLECT DATA THROUGH THE\r\n12Z MODEL CYCLE TUESDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK AND THE\r\nOCEAN HEAT CONTENT VERY HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT\r\nAND INDICATES THAT DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  THE HURRICANE WILL WEAKEN WHILE OVER YUCATAN IN\r\nPROPORTION TO JUST HOW LONG IT SPENDS OVER LAND.  THE OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LIKEWISE DEPENDS ON\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK...AND THAT WINDOW HAS BEEN SHORTENING WITH THE\r\nSOUTHWARD SHIFTS IN TRACK.  ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT DEAN COULD\r\nRESTRENGTHEN AND AGAIN REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO FINAL\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 17.6N  78.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N  81.4W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N  84.9W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.2N  88.4W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 19.8N  91.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N  99.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":29,"Date":"2007-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AGAIN\r\nINDICATED A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND SPEED WAS 145 KT WITH AN SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENT OF 125\r\nKT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A GPS DROPSONDE MEASURED A SURFACE\r\nWIND SPEED OF 133 KT IN THE SAME QUADRANT...BUT BASED ON\r\nLOWER-LAYER AVERAGES FROM THE SONDE...THIS PROBABLY DOES NOT QUITE\r\nCORRESPOND TO A 1-MINUTE AVERAGE SURFACE WIND. BASED ON ALL OF\r\nTHESE DATA THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 130 KT. DEAN IS MOVING\r\nOVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT WITH WEAK SHEAR\r\nAND EXHIBITS A CLASSIC UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN. DEAN\r\nCERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CATEGORY FIVE\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE TRANSIT OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY FOLLOWS THE\r\nINLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT IT\r\nCOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL\r\nLANDFALL. THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WILL LIKELY OCCUR BETWEEN THE 48-HOUR\r\nFORECAST AND LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO GIVE\r\nESSENTIALLY A DUE WESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED...270/18.  AS A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CONTINUES\r\nMOVING WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR DEAN.\r\nTHEREFORE...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE GFDL...U.K.\r\nMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.7N  80.7W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.1N  83.5W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.8N  87.0W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.6N  90.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.5N  94.0W    90 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":30,"Date":"2007-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 20 2007\r\n \r\nTHE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE\r\nMEANTIME...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A SINGLE EYEWALL THAT HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED WITH COLDER TOPS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE HELD AT 130 KT...BUT LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN\r\nIS APPROACHING CATEGORY FIVE STATUS...AND IT IS EXPECTED REACH THAT\r\nTHRESHOLD LATER TODAY OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN...DEAN SHOULD RETAIN HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE CROSSING\r\nAND A HURRICANE WARNING IS THEREFORE REQUIRED FOR THE WESTERN COAST\r\nOF THE YUCATAN AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICIT IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BELOW...DEAN COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE ITS\r\nFINAL LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING...MODEL GUIDANCE...OR OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  DEAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A TRACK BETWEEN WEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nWESTWARD-BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITHIN A VERY NARROW GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 17.9N  82.4W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.2N  85.1W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N  88.6W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.9N  92.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 102.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":31,"Date":"2007-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007\r\n \r\nCOMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS ARE PREVENTING THE RECEIPT OF MOST DATA FROM\r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A\r\n1930Z VORTEX FIX WAS RECEIVED. AT THAT TIME THE MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nWAS 918 MB...WITH MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 151 KT. EARLIER IN\r\nTHE FLIGHT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 123 KT WAS OBSERVED.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT AT 18Z.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT. ALL OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE DEEP WARM WATERS\r\nOF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE\r\nSTATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. A 15Z MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL\r\nOUTER EYEWALL...BUT THIS WILL PROBABLY NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO\r\nINDUCE ANY WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND\r\nAPPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN BEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/17.  DEAN IN EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A TRACK\r\nBETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTWARD-\r\nBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS TRENDED SOUTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nSOUTHWARD.  ALL THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TAKE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY\r\nOF DEAN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE\r\nTRACK AFTER FINAL LANDFALL.  I DO NOT ACTUALLY EXPECT A WELL-\r\nDEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION TO EXIST AT 72 HOURS...BUT A POINT IS\r\nPROVIDED SO THAT IT DOESN'T APPEAR THAT THE TRACK ENDS IN THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.2N  84.2W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N  86.7W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.3N  90.2W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.2N  93.6W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N  97.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 103.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":32,"Date":"2007-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS TAPPED INTO ENERGY PROVIDED BY THE DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS EVENING...AND HAS REACHED CATEGORY\r\nFIVE STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 140 KT.  DURING THE LAST\r\nPENETRATION BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nAT 00Z...A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 914 MB WAS MEASURED.  THE PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 162 KT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 145 KT AT\r\nTHE SURFACE.  DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED\r\nALL OF THE DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA IN REAL-TIME.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 140 KT...PENDING A MORE\r\nTHOROUGH EXAMINATION OF ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT DATA.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL ARRIVE IN THE EYE OF DEAN IN A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE EVOLVING\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEAN REVEALS AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A VERY WELL-DEFINED AND GRADUALLY\r\nCONTRACTING EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI.  REPORTS FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT...AND RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PROVIDE NO\r\nINDICATIONS OF ANY INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT WOULD LEAD TO\r\nWEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  DEAN IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS DURING ITS ENTIRE STAY OVER YUCATAN...AND IT COULD STILL\r\nREGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BEFORE FINAL\r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n275/17.  A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH DEAN ROUGHLY ALONG THIS SAME HEADING AND\r\nSPEED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH\r\nIN ORDER TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT WELL-ESTABLISHED HEADING...AND TO\r\nBE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS.  ALONG THE NEW TRACK...DEAN WILL SPEND A LITTLE LESS\r\nTIME OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND WILL PASS A LITTLE CLOSER TO\r\nTHE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE 24-36\r\nHOUR PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN\r\nISSUED ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 18.4N  86.0W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.7N  88.6W   140 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 19.2N  92.1W    85 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 19.6N  95.6W    95 KT...BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 19.6N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":33,"Date":"2007-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN MADE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR\r\nTHE CRUISE SHIP PORT OF COSTA MAYA AROUND 0830 UTC...AND THE EYE IS\r\nNOW JUST INLAND.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nPLANE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE WAS INTENSIFYING RIGHT UP TO\r\nLANDFALL.  A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 165 KT WAS MEASURED JUST\r\nNORTH OF THE EYE.  MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 124\r\nKT...BUT IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED\r\nWAS NOT REPORTED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT.  A GPS DROPSONDE IN THE\r\nNORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A WIND SPEED OF 178 KT AVERAGED OVER THE\r\nLOWEST 150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING.  BASED ON THE DROPSONDE AND THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 145 KT.  A DROPSONDE\r\nIN THE EYE MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 906 MB JUST PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL.  SOME HISTORIC NOTES ARE IN ORDER HERE.  THE 906 MB\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS THE NINTH LOWEST ON RECORD FOR AN ATLANTIC\r\nBASIN HURRICANE...AND THE THIRD LOWEST AT LANDFALL BEHIND THE 1935\r\nLABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND HURRICANE GILBERT OF\r\n1988 IN CANCUN MEXICO.  DEAN IS ALSO THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE\r\nHURRICANE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN SINCE ANDREW OF\r\n1992.\r\n \r\nDEAN WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND\r\nTHE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS\r\nOVER LAND.  OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE\r\nA BORDERLINE CAT 1/2 HURRICANE WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST.\r\nASSUMING THAT THE INNER CORE IS NOT TOO DISRUPTED BY ITS\r\nINTERACTION WITH LAND...DEAN SHOULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS\r\nBEFORE ITS FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/17.  DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE\r\nNEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED WESTWARD ALONG THE BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\nCOASTLINE OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 18.7N  87.8W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.1N  90.4W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 19.6N  93.9W    95 KT...OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 20.1N  96.8W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 20.5N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":34,"Date":"2007-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA...DEAN CONTINUES\r\nTO TRAVERSE THE SPARSELY-POPULATED SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA. THE EYE HAS FILLED AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. THE\r\nINTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 90 KT BASED ON THE DECAY COMPONENT OF THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL. DEAN IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN\r\nANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS AS A HURRICANE...AND WILL HAVE ABOUT 18 HOURS\r\nOVER WATER TO REGAIN STRENGTH. SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT DEAN COULD APPROACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AGAIN...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING WILL BE HARD TO GAUGE UNTIL WE SEE\r\nHOW MUCH OF THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE\r\nOVER LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECASTING THINKING. DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 19.0N  89.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.4N  92.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N  95.5W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N  98.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":35,"Date":"2007-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nOF 70 KT IS AGAIN BASED ON TYPICAL DECAY RATES...AND HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nBE IN THE CYCLONE AROUND 00Z TO ASCERTAIN THE TRUE STRENGTH OF\r\nDEAN.  BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INNER CORE OF DEAN APPEARS\r\nTO BE LARGELY INTACT...WITH DEEP CONVECTION DIRECTLY OVER THE\r\nCENTER.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RESTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN FAIRLY\r\nQUICKLY...AND DEAN COULD BE VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE\r\nTIME OF ITS LANDFALL IN THE WESTERN GULF.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST\r\nAPPEARS TO BE OVERLY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT DECAY AND HAS BEEN\r\nDISCOUNTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD END UP\r\nWORKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 280/17...AND THERE CONTINUES TO\r\nBE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  HIGH PRESSURE\r\nNORTH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO STEER DEAN ON A TRACK\r\nJUST NORTH OF WEST.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE DIVERGENT THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A BIT OF JOG TO THE RIGHT JUST\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY\r\nUNCHANGED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 19.4N  91.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.8N  93.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 20.5N  97.1W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":36,"Date":"2007-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007\r\n \r\nDEAN APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING A LARGE RAGGED EYE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED DEAN AND MEASURED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 979 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SFMR HAS ONLY MEASURED 59 KNOTS SO FAR.  SINCE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS RETURNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70\r\nKNOTS...WHICH IS A BLEND OF BOTH MEASUREMENTS AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS.\r\nDEAN IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL BUT IS RUNNING OUT\r\nOF TIME TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME DISRUPTED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF CENTRAL MEXICO...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE FROM DEAN COULD SPREAD\r\nNORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nDEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL SINCE THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE.\r\n \r\nTHE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT CAYO ARCAS RECENTLY\r\nMEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 KNOTS...GUSTS TO 63 KNOTS AND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986.3 MB. NOAA BUOY 42055 IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO MEASURED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38 KNOTS AND A GUST TO\r\n43 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 19.9N  93.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 20.7N  95.6W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.4N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":37,"Date":"2007-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF DEAN COLLAPSED DURING PASSAGE ACROSS THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nHAD EXPANDED TO 55 N MI IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FORMING CLOSE TO THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...BUT THIS DOES NOT CORRESPOND WITH ANY WIND\r\nMAXIMUM SEEN BY THE AIRCRAFT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 979\r\nMB AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 64 KT.  BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n70 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/17.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF DEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 12 HR...AND UNTIL\r\nEVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE LARGE CORE\r\nSIZE...SUGGESTS THAT RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY BE SLOWER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WINDS TO\r\nINCREASE TO 80 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  DEAN SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY\r\n48 HR AT THE LATEST.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON AIRCRAFT...\r\nBUOY...AND QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS.  THE INCREASED AREA OF HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 20.3N  94.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 20.9N  97.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.4N 100.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 21.8N 103.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dean","Adv":38,"Date":"2007-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 22 2007\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DEAN\r\nIS FINDING FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF CLOSE TO 100 KT...AND RECENT\r\nOBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A CONTRACTION OF THE INNER CORE WIND\r\nFIELD.  A DROPSONDE ABOUT 20 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A WL150...I.E. LOW-LEVEL...MEAN WIND OF 100 KT...\r\nCORRESPONDING TO 85 KT AT THE SURFACE.  ON THIS BASIS...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT...MAKING DEAN A CATEGORY\r\nTWO HURRICANE.  FORTUNATELY...THESE CHANGES IN THE CORE STRUCTURE\r\nARE OCCURRING TOO CLOSE TO LANDFALL TO ALLOW FOR MUCH FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME...285/16. THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AND DEAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR TUXPAN. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 20.6N  96.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.2N  98.6W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.3N 101.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dean","Adv":39,"Date":"2007-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007\r\n \r\nAROUND 1630 UTC...THE CENTER OF DEAN MADE LANDFALL IN MEXICO AS A\r\nCATEGORY TWO HURRICANE NEAR THE TOWN OF TECOLUTLA...ABOUT 40 MILES\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DEAN CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED.  THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 60 KT.  HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY IN GUSTS...ARE\r\nLIKELY OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15.  DEAN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT IS RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN\r\nAND CENTRAL MEXICO. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 20.5N  98.1W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 20.5N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dean","Adv":40,"Date":"2007-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 22 2007\r\n \r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DEAN. SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nRAPIDLY WEAKENING AND IS BECOMING A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS ACROSS MEXICO\r\nBUT STILL PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS.  ANY REMNANT CIRCULATION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE\r\nFASTER...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE\r\nREGENERATION OCCURS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON WHAT WAS ONCE CATEGORY FIVE\r\nHURRICANE DEAN. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 20.5N 100.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.5N 103.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A\r\nFORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH\r\nSOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS\r\nTREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nDEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT\r\nSOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...\r\nBUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN\r\nWILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nAS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE\r\nWAY.  THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED\r\nUPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 23.9N  91.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 24.8N  92.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 25.9N  94.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 27.0N  96.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 27.8N  98.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT AS THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS RAGGED AND RATHER ILL-DEFINED. \r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE DATA IS INCONCLUSIVE AND THERE APPEARS TO BE\r\nMULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE\r\nCENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS...ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN TWO APPARENT CLOUD SYSTEM\r\nCENTERS.  GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME RELOCATION MAY\r\nBE REQUIRED LATER TODAY WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nFLIGHT AROUND 1200 UTC.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9.  THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK\r\nPHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MID TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...A NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER LATER\r\nTODAY IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR LANDFALL BUT IS OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGED. \r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE QUICKLY BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nAS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION IS RESULTING IN A REDUCTION IN VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND A MORE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT.  STILL...THE CURRENT LACK\r\nOF ORGANIZATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  EVEN IF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED LATER TODAY...IT\r\nWOULD ONLY HAVE A DAY OR SO OVER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL.  ONCE INLAND...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN WITH\r\nDISSIPATION BY DAY 3...IF NOT SOONER. \r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TEXAS COAST LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 24.6N  91.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 25.3N  93.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 26.4N  95.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 27.3N  97.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 28.0N  98.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nA NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SO FAR THE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 25-\r\nKNOT WINDS. ON THE OTHER HAND....VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A\r\nLARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA\r\nAS A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n12 KNOTS. THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A LARGE\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL ON THURSDAY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 25.4N  93.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 25.8N  95.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  97.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-08-15 15:30:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n1130 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERIN\r\nBASED ON DATA FORM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. THE CENTER WAS\r\nFOUND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND\r\nTHEREFORE THE INITIAL AND 12 HOUR LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY\r\nAND NOW ERIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITH WINDS OF 45 KNOTS.\r\nNO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.   \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1530Z 25.6N  93.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 26.0N  95.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 26.5N  97.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 28.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN ARE WELL\r\nDEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM\r\nBUOYS NEARBY AND ANALYSIS OF LOW-CLOUD MOTION SUGGEST THAT THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED.\r\nTHE CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FAVOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA SOON.      \r\n\r\nBECAUSE ERIN IS STILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nREFORMING...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 11 KNOTS. SINCE THERE IS A STRONG HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ERIN...THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL EARLY THURSDAY.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nBRINGING ERIN INLAND ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR\r\nLESS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 26.3N  94.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 27.2N  95.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 28.0N  97.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 29.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2007\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING...WITH THE\r\nMOST RECENT MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 43 KT IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHESE WINDS WOULD SUPPORT A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 35 KT...AND THAT\r\nREMAINS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  AT PRESENT...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS COVER ONLY A FAIRLY SMALL AREA ABOUT 50 TO 75 MILES TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ALTHOUGH NOT OVER THE CENTER...AND\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING PRIOR\r\nTO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE\r\nSHIPS/GFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE.  AT LANDFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nPRIMARILY A RAIN EVENT...RATHER THAN A WIND EVENT. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE A SHORT-TERM\r\nWESTWARD JOG...A MORE REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n300/12.  A CONTINUATION OF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL TOMORROW MORNING...WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH\r\nPRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 26.5N  95.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 27.4N  97.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 28.4N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 29.3N 100.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT ERIN\r\nREMAINS DISORGANIZED AND HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. NOAA BUOY 42019\r\nRECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 KT AND VELOCITY DATA FROM\r\nTHE CORPUS CHRISTI WSR88D INDICATE WINDS IN THE 35 KT RANGE ABOVE\r\nTHE SURFACE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nUNCHANGED AT 35 KT. WHILE THE PRESENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION ARGUES\r\nAGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...ERIN STILL HAS 6-12 MORE HOURS\r\nOVER WATER SO SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nERIN HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER\r\nTERM MOTION YIELDS AND INITIAL ESTIMATE OF 300/10.  A CONTINUATION\r\nOF THIS BASIC MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST WITH THE TRACK CONTROLLED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST FROM PORT\r\nMANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO BROWNSVILLE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 27.3N  96.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 28.0N  98.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 28.8N  99.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 29.5N 101.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007\r\n \r\nERIN CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST NEAR LAMAR AND IS NOW MOVING FATHER\r\nINLAND. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nSTILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WHICH IS THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT\r\nABOUT 13 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON ERIN. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35\r\nKWNH...BEGINNING AT  400 PM CDT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 28.5N  97.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 29.5N  99.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 30.5N 101.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 32.0N 103.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING A TROPICAL WAVE\r\nEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nWITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS UP TO 36 KT. THESE WINDS EQUATE TO ABOUT 30\r\nKT AT THE SURFACE...AND AGREE WELL WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB.  THUS THE SIXTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE\r\nSEASON IS BORN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BECOMING IMPRESSIVE\r\nWITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS AND AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WIND SHEAR NEAR THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nREMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COUPLED WITH THE\r\nWARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE A RECIPE\r\nFOR AT LEAST SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN THE DEPRESSION...AND CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  FOR NOW...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND\r\nMAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/14.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nKEEP A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE\r\nECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 11.8N  58.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 12.2N  60.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 12.9N  64.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 13.6N  67.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 14.3N  71.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 15.3N  78.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  83.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 17.0N  88.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM FRENCH RADAR ON MARTINIQUE\r\nSUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN PART OF THE ELONGATION.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS DATA ALONG WITH QUIKSCAT DATA AND\r\nSUBSEQUENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND IT COULD BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE WINDWARD\r\nISLANDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS CURRENTLY IN A SYNOPTIC PATTERN WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF\r\nHURRICANE DEAN...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WESTWARD BUILDING\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT LEAST FOUR\r\nDAYS... CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nTHROUGH 36 HR...THEN SOME SPREAD OCCURS.  THE HWRF AND THE SHALLOW\r\nAND MEDIUM MEAN LAYER BAM MODELS FORECAST A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nTO A 120 HR POSITION NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHILE THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE TAKES THE CYCLONE TO BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE HWRF SHOWS THE STORM DISSIPATING DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH MAY ACCOUNT FOR ITS MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE IN DEEP-LAYER\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 5 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ONCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE EXPERIMENTAL LGEM\r\nMODEL BOTH FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...AS NOTED ABOVE THE HWRF DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL WAITS UNTIL IT IS WEST OF 75W TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND THE FORECAST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS ARE CORRECT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 12.0N  59.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N  62.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.2N  65.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N  69.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 14.6N  72.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N  79.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  84.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  88.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONSOLIDATED SOMEWHAT\r\nOVERNIGHT...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW FOCUSED ON A CLUSTER\r\nVERY NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION.  SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS REMAIN 2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS RAISED TO 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FELIX.  RADAR IMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE DEPICTS ROTATION IN THE\r\nREFLECTIVITIES...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAVING JUST RECENTLY\r\nPASSED OVER GRENADA.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THIS RELATIVELY\r\nSMALL STORM IS WELL-ESTABLISHED...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nWEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO PERSIST OVER FELIX ALONG ITS PATH ACROSS\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN SEA.  ACCORDINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST STRENGTHENING...WITH BOTH SHIPS AND LGEM CALLING FOR FELIX\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS COULD NOT BE MUCH MORE IN DISAGREEMENT...WITH GFDL\r\nFORECASTING A HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS AND HWRF BARELY CALLING FOR\r\nFELIX TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL AND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFELIX HAS SPED UP A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n280/16.  MUCH LIKE DEAN LAST MONTH...FELIX IS FORECAST BY NEARLY\r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE TO MOVE IN ALMOST A STRAIGHT LINE ACROSS THE\r\nCARIBBEAN.  THE MODELS ARE ALSO ARRANGED IN A SIMILAR MANNER AS\r\nDURING MUCH OF DEAN...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS AND ECMWF TO THE SOUTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD...SO THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH REASON FOR THE TRACK\r\nOF FELIX TO BEND MUCH IF AT ALL TO THE NORTH.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY....IF ANYTHING NUDGED TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 12.4N  62.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 12.8N  64.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 13.4N  67.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 14.1N  71.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 14.6N  74.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  81.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  86.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  91.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATED THE CENTER PASSED VERY NEAR\r\nGRENADA OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ISLAND OBSERVING 1005 MB BEFORE THE\r\nWEATHER STATION STOPPED REPORTING.  SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX IS FORMING A SMALL INNER CORE WITH\r\nTIGHTLY-WOUND BANDS AROUND THE CENTER.  IN FACT...AN AIR FORCE PLANE\r\nJUST MADE IT TO THE CENTER AND REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 69\r\nKT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE SURFACE...AND 55 KT WILL\r\nBE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SUPPORT A CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE STORM.  WITH SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT\r\nIS LIKELY THAT FELIX WILL BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE TIME\r\nIT REACHES THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE GFDL/HWRF ONLY\r\nSLOWLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHIS STORM COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS BEEN MOVING BASICALLY TO WEST FOR THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND\r\nMY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16.  A STRONG RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO STEER THE STORM A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  BEYOND\r\n3 DAYS...THERE IS A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT IN\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO.  A FEW MODELS HAVE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE TO FORCE A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF ARE KEEPING A STRONG\r\nRIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION EARLY ON...BUT THEN\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 12.3N  63.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 12.8N  66.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.4N  69.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.1N  72.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.8N  76.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N  82.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N  91.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE LAST AIRCRAFT PASS THROUGH THE STORM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR) SHOWED 60 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THUS\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE AS HINTS OF AN EYE FEATURE HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TO BE STRAIGHT-FORWARD.  THE MAIN\r\nQUESTION IS HOW FAST THE STORM WILL INTENSIFY. ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT AND THE WATERS\r\nOF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE VERY WARM. IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF ARE SO SLOW TO STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM.  SO FAR...THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS HAVE DONE VERY WELL WITH THIS STORM...AND THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...\r\nAS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS...IS RATHER HIGH.\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 280/16 AFTER A BRIEF WESTWARD JOG THIS\r\nMORNING.  A PERSISTENT RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER\r\nFELIX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST HINGES ON HOW STRONG THE RIDGE\r\nREMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE UKMET/NOGAPS/GFDL/HWRF ALLOWS\r\nA HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD NEAR FLORIDA\r\nAND CAUSES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF FELIX IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND MAINTAIN FELIX\r\nON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH FROM SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AS WELL.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 12.7N  65.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.1N  67.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.8N  71.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N  74.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 15.2N  78.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.3N  83.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 17.5N  88.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  92.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 77 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL OF 7500 FT...AND SURFACE WINDS AROUND 65 KT ON THE STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB AND A 30 N MI WIDE EYE.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nFELIX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\n65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nFELIX HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD THROUGH 72 HR...WHICH\r\nSHOULD KEEP FELIX ON A COURSE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST. \r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER\r\n72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SOMEWHAT DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING OVER TEXAS. \r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTOWARD SOUTHERN YUCATAN OR CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE GFDL HAS MADE\r\nA SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO JOIN THEM.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS\r\nCALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDN BEING SOMEWHAT TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THAT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  IT IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFELIX CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS\r\nREASONS THAT FELIX SHOULD NOT STEADILY INTENSIFY UNTIL IT\r\nAPPROACHES CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nTHAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND EXPERIMENTAL LGE MODELS.  THE\r\nRAPID INTENSITY INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO CALL\r\nFOR A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...SO IT WOULD\r\nNOT BE SURPRISING IF FELIX WAS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY 72 HR. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR MAY BE DEPENDENT ON A\r\nCOMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...\r\nBOTH OF WHICH ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...PRESENT\r\nINDICATIONS ARE THAT FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 12.7N  66.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.2N  69.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.7N  76.6W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 15.4N  79.7W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  84.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  88.5W   110 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nFELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93\r\nKT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION\r\nAT ABOUT 0638Z.  IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED\r\nSURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER\r\nLAYER OF THE SOUNDING.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 85 KT.  WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR\r\nIMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM\r\nOVERPASS AT 0619Z.\r\n\r\nFELIX CONTINUES ON A PATH JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 275/16...WITH\r\nSTEERING PROVIDED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD...PREVENTING FELIX FROM GAINING ANY SIGNIFICANT LATITUDE\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. \r\nEVEN THE NOGAPS...AN EARLIER NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH\r\nAND BACK INTO THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS PATHS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WITH\r\nTHE MOST SOUTHERN SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFDL.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT\r\nFOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST AT 4-5 DAYS IS RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN AND DEPENDS ON JUST HOW MUCH RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE\r\nOVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST\r\nOF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY\r\nUNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 12.8N  68.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.2N  71.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.9N  75.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.6N  78.6W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.3N  81.9W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  87.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  91.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  94.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nFELIX IS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A SYMMETRIC-APPEARING CLOUD\r\nSTRUCTURE AND STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW.  THE EYE IS\r\nBECOMING WELL-DEFINED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CURACAO RADAR IS\r\nSHOWING A RATHER CLASSIC PRESENTATION...WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL\r\nPASSING WELL NORTH OF ARUBA.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT EYE\r\nPENETRATIONS BY HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BUT BASED ON THE\r\nINCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 90 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN EXTREMELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nTO MOVE OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. \r\nTHEREFORE I SEE NO REASON WHY FELIX WILL NOT BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...LGEM...\r\nVERSION OF SHIPS AND CALLS FOR CAT. 4 INTENSITY WITHING 36 HOURS.\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN\r\nVERY BULLISH ON THE STRENGTHENING OF FELIX SO FAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES...AROUND 285/16.  THERE IS NO IMPORTANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  GLOBAL MODEL\r\nPREDICTIONS SHOW A DEEP LAYER RIDGE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFELIX...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE\r\nHURRICANE'S TRACK OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST LOCATIONS.  THE GFS SHOWS A 500 MB TROUGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THIS FEATURE COULD ERODE\r\nTHE HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IS MADE TO THE 96- AND\r\n120-HOUR FORECASTS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 3-5 DAYS.  IN ANY EVENT IT\r\nSHOULD BE RECALLED THAT THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS\r\nRANGE FROM OVER 200 MILES TO NEARLY 300 MILES RESPECTIVELY...SO ONE\r\nSHOULD NOT BE FOCUSING ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.\r\n\r\nTHE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN\r\nEXPANDED BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 13.2N  70.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N  72.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.4N  76.3W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N  79.5W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 15.8N  82.7W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N  87.0W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  94.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE HURRICANE TODAY.  FELIX\r\nHAS A SPECTACULAR PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH A WELL-\r\nDEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER CREW REPORTED A STADIUM EFFECT IN THE EYE AND THAT\r\nTHE EYE DIAMETER HAD SHRUNK TO 12 N MI.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE ALSO\r\nMEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 132 KT AND...FOR A\r\nSYSTEM OF SUCH CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE 90 PER CENT RATIO OF SURFACE\r\nTO FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CERTAINLY APPLY HERE.  THIS WOULD\r\nEQUATE TO PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 120 KT.  A GPS DROPSONDE IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN EYEWALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 128 KT BUT THIS IS\r\nA SPOT WIND THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENTATIVE OF A 1-MINUTE\r\nAVERAGE.  THUS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT.  A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 957 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE...WITH 15 KT WINDS AT\r\nTHE SURFACE.  SO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER OR 956 MB.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT\r\nA RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS\r\nONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED.  FELIX WILL\r\nREMAIN IN A VERY LOW SHEAR TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE\r\nPASSING OVER WATERS OF EXTREMELY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...TO EXACERBATE THE SITUATION...\r\nTHERE IS A WARM EDDY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT FELIX IS\r\nPROJECTED TO MOVE OVER IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AND THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR US TO HAVE ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON OUR HANDS BEFORE\r\nALL IS SAID AND DONE.\r\n\r\nA SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES.  I HAVE MADE\r\nESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING\r\nBEHIND IT.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY\r\n3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN\r\nCURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS.  IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS\r\nSHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  AGAIN...BECAUSE\r\nOF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS\r\nON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 13.6N  72.0W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.1N  74.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.8N  78.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N  81.1W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  83.5W   135 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W   135 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  91.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-03 00:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX\r\nHAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS\r\nOF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND\r\nIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN\r\nCONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A\r\nSURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT\r\nLEAST 145 KT.  AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB\r\nWITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT.  BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND\r\nGROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING\r\nABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ARE BEING\r\nMADE.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE\r\nSCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0000Z 13.8N  72.9W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.1N  74.5W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.8N  78.0W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N  81.1W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  83.5W   145 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 17.3N  87.7W   135 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  91.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  95.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nSINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT\r\n23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH\r\nTHE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND\r\n00Z.  GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE\r\nTIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT. \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS\r\nOVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. \r\nLATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL\r\nSTRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS\r\nTO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH\r\nTHE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION\r\nOVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY\r\nSLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL\r\nRIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR\r\nWHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nAND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5.  MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW.  THE MAJOR\r\nMODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 13.9N  73.9W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N  76.6W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  79.8W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.6N  82.8W   145 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.2N  85.2W   145 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.5N  89.0W   135 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  93.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  96.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n\r\nFELIX IS MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA AS IT\r\nMAINTAINS CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT PENETRATED THE EYE TWICE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE\r\nEYE DIAMETER HAS SHRUNK TO 10 N MI...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931\r\nMB WAS MEASURED...BUT THAT DROPSONDE DID NOT QUITE CATCH THE CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION...SO THE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 929 MB. \r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 155 KT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 140 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 145 KT\r\nSINCE THIS MISSION MIGHT HAVE JUST MISSED THE MAXIMUM WIND.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING IN A RATHER STRAIGHT LINE ALONG A HEADING OF\r\n280 DEGREES AT ABOUT 18 KT...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MIGHT EVEN\r\nBE A LITTLE FASTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BASICALLY EXTRAPOLATES\r\nTHE CURRENT DIRECTION OF MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH ONLY A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER THAT A MODEST BEND TO THE\r\nRIGHT IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH NOT ALL OF THE MODELS CONCUR...WITH\r\nTHE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF NEVER TAKING FELIX OVER THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE.  WHILE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES COULD OCCUR AND LEAD\r\nTO FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE\r\nFELIX IS GUARANTEED TO STILL BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE\r\nCARIBBEAN. BEYOND THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY\r\nCOMPLICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK THAT FELIX TAKES AND THE AMOUNT OF\r\nTIME IT SPENDS OVER LAND. IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nNORTH THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK DURING THE 24-48 HOUR PERIOD...IT\r\nWILL SPEND MORE TIME OVER WATER AND WOULD LIKELY MAINTAIN A GREATER\r\nINTENSITY DURING THAT TIME. IF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT WOULD SPEND EVEN MORE TIME OVER LAND AND\r\nCOULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED BELOW. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nFORECAST RESTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS ON DAY 4 ASSUMES THAT\r\nFELIX WILL IN FACT EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 14.1N  75.9W   145 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  78.7W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  81.9W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N  84.8W   125 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.9N  87.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.5N  91.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  95.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS WHICH COULD\r\nBE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT WEAKENING.  A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nMEASURED 162 KT WINDS AROUND 11Z WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT 145 KT\r\nAT THE SURFACE.  HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT TO THAT OBSERVATION THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN A BIT AND THE EYE IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED ON\r\nVISUAL IMAGERY.  SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD\r\nSLIGHTLY...TO 140 KT.  FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE\r\nPROCESSES ARE TYPICAL IN INTENSE HURRICANES.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN\r\nMUCH EVIDENCE OF CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OR AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT THUS\r\nFAR BUT SUCH AN EVENT COULD OCCUR...AND IT WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE\r\nON THE INTENSITY OF FELIX.  HOWEVER THESE EYEWALL CYCLES ARE\r\nDIFFICULT TO TIME OR TO PREDICT.  THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT... IN\r\nTERMS OF WIND SHEAR AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...SHOULD REMAIN\r\nCONDUCIVE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF CAT 4/5 INTENSITY UNTIL INTERACTION\r\nWITH LAND.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WITH\r\nRESPECT TO THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO.  CLEARLY IF\r\nFELIX MOVES MORE TO THE RIGHT OF OUR FORECAST IT WILL REMAIN\r\nSTRONGER AND IF IT MOVES TO THE LEFT OF THE NHC TRACK IT WOULD BE\r\nMUCH WEAKER.  INDEED...IF THE CYCLONE FAILS TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE...IT COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES SHOW THAT THE FAST WESTWARD MOTION...280/18...\r\nCONTINUES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST AND SYNOPTIC REASONING ARE\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS MAINTAIN\r\nSUFFICIENT MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SO\r\nTHAT...IF THESE FORECASTS VERIFY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nUNABLE TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN\r\nNICARAGUA.\r\n\r\nDATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 14.3N  77.8W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N  80.4W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.1N  83.2W   145 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.8N  85.9W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.3N  88.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  92.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.0N  95.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 20.5N  99.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR\r\nWINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO\r\nTHE WEST NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT\r\nCOOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.\r\nHIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY\r\nWIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA\r\nSOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY\r\nPRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND.  THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX\r\nWILL REMAIN OVER LAND.  SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER\r\nCORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE\r\nMORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17\r\nKT.  THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED\r\nDEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX.  THIS REGIME\r\nIS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nWITH SOME WEAKENING.  THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH.  THIS IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE\r\nSOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 14.3N  79.5W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.5N  81.9W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.9N  84.5W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 15.5N  86.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.2N  88.8W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.6N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  96.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N  99.5W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL AIRCRAFT DATA SINCE 21Z...BUT THERE\r\nHAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAPPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. AN 18Z MICROWAVE\r\nPASS SHOWED THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL HAD FORMED...AND OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS THE INNER EYEWALL HAS DECAYED IN INFRARED IMAGES AND\r\nTHE OUTER FEATURE IS NOW MORE PROMINENT.  RAW OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nNUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...UP TO T6.7...BUT I'M\r\nGUESSING THAT THE INNER CORE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOT YET\r\nRECOVERED FROM THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND IT MAY TAKE A FEW MORE\r\nHOURS FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO BE REFLECTED IN THE WIND\r\nFIELD.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 115 KT...WITH SOME\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS.\r\nANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE HURRICANE AROUND\r\n05Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17...AS FELIX CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSTEERED BY DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHERE IS A LITTLE LESS RIDGING AHEAD OF FELIX AND SO SOME DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE RIDGING\r\nSHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FELIX BASICALLY ON TRACK. MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS FELIX OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH ONLY\r\nTHE 12Z UKMET AND 18Z NOGAPS TAKING FELIX BACK OVER WATER. THE 18Z\r\nUKMET...WHICH IS AVAILABLE ONLY OUT TO 48 HOURS...IS ALSO A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF ITS EARLIER RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW KEEPS FELIX\r\nENTIRELY OVER LAND.  AS A RESULT OF THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SHARPLY\r\nDOWNWARD AFTER 12 HOURS...AND IF THE TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES THE\r\nSMALL CIRCULATION OF FELIX IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE MUCH EARLIER THAN\r\nSHOWN BELOW. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 14.4N  81.1W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.6N  83.5W   125 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 15.1N  85.9W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.7N  88.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 16.4N  90.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  97.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT LAST NIGHT...FELIX HAS AGAIN\r\nSTRENGTHENED EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE...REPORTED BY A UNITED STATES AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT...HAS FALLEN TO 939 MB.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WAS 148 KT...CORRESPONDING TO 133 KT AT\r\nTHE SURFACE...AND A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LOW-LAYER\r\nMEAN WIND OF A DROPSONDE PROFILE WAS 132 KT.  ANOTHER DROPSONDE\r\nREPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 147 KT...BUT THAT IS NOT LIKELY\r\nREPRESENTATIVE OF A SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND.  THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS BEEN STEADILY BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE...INCLUDING\r\nIN THE FEW IMAGES SINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 07Z.  SINCE THE\r\nPRESSURE AND WIND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE INDICATING\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND GIVEN THAT OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM THE\r\nMOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES ARE APPROACHING 7.0...FELIX COULD\r\nREACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS AT ANY TIME PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFELIX CONTINUES GENERALLY WESTWARD BUT APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN A\r\nLITTLE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 270/14. THE EYE IS\r\nONLY ABOUT THREE HOURS FROM MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF\r\nNORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...LIKELY JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER WITH\r\nHONDURAS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE\r\nDURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...SO A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION\r\nIS FORECAST WITH A SLOW BEND TO THE RIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND GFS OVER HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT DOES NOT FOLLOW THOSE MODELS IN LATER\r\nBRINGING FELIX OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN\r\nTHAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nRUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES THE\r\nCOAST...AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE LOWER DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF FELIX.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO\r\nEMPHASIZE...THAT THIS WILL NOT BE JUST A COASTAL EVENT. VERY HEAVY\r\nRAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES COULD OCCUR\r\nWELL INLAND AND MANY HOURS OR DAYS AFTER THIS MORNING'S LANDFALL.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 14.3N  82.5W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.3N  84.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N  86.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 14.9N  88.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 15.4N  90.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 16.5N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n \r\nFELIX IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN\r\nNICARAGUA.  THE ESTIMATED LANDFALL INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE IS 140\r\nKT.  THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED 135 KT\r\nAT AROUND 07Z...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME MORE DISTINCT\r\nAND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS COOLED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN\r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 0.3.  CURRENT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nARE BASED ON STANDARD INLAND WEAKENING AND FILLING RATES OVER THE 3\r\nHOURS SINCE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER EXTREMELY\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO THE RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED BY\r\nTHE STANDARD INLAND DECAY MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE MAJOR CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25\r\nINCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD\r\nTAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.\r\n\r\nHIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 14.3N  83.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.3N  85.7W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.0N  90.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felix","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n\r\nFELIX CONTINUES ITS TREK OVER LAND AND THE CENTER IS NOW APPROACHING\r\nTHE HONDURAS BORDER.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED QUITE WELL\r\nORGANIZED UP TO THIS TIME AND THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPRESSIVE\r\nSPIRAL BANDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE ENCOUNTERING SOME FORMIDABLE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...SO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW.  MY INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF\r\nHONDURAS' HIGH MOUNTAINS.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 36-48\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nASIDE FROM A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD WOBBLE EARLIER TODAY...THE MOTION HAS\r\nBEEN GENERALLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/12.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT\r\nREDUCTION OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND SO\r\nDOES THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE\r\nSTEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25\r\nINCHES.  THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD\r\nTAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 14.2N  85.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.3N  86.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.6N  88.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felix","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n \r\nFELIX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND.  THE CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...WITH\r\nTHE SITUATION BEING COMPLICATED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE\r\nSTORM POSSIBLY MOVING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nPORTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/10.  FELIX SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE MAJOR CONCERN IS NOW THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE\r\nSTEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25\r\nINCHES.  THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD\r\nTAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 14.1N  85.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.1N  87.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.3N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felix","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA FROM CENTRAL AMERICA AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nFELIX IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND IS\r\nDEGENERATING INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE CENTER...IF IT\r\nSTILL EXISTS..IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  FELIX IS KEPT AS A 25\r\nKNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD AROUND 10 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AT THIS TIME SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nREMNANT LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER LAND AND WILL NOT MOVE INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC BASIN.  HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nMONITORED.\r\n\r\nFELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE RAINS PRIMARILY OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 14.0N  87.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 13.8N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST COULD NOT FIND A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...REPORTING INSTEAD A VERY ELONGATED\r\nCENTER.  SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nSLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED...BUT IS STILL BROAD AND ELONGATED.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 85 N MI NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB.  BASED ON THE\r\nLARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND THE\r\nPROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...THE SYSTEM\r\nIS DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40 KT.\r\n \r\nGABRIELL IS MOVING 300/8 BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN\r\nBAHAMAS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48-72 HR.  THE MODELS DISAGREE...HOWEVER...ON EXACTLY WHERE AND\r\nWHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE GFDL IS THE LEFTMOST SOLUTION WITH\r\nA FORECAST TRACK INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 36 HR...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA\r\nINTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CALL FOR LANDFALL\r\nIN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE\r\nINTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE GFDL TRACK MAY BE RESULTING FROM HAVING TOO\r\nDEEP OF A VORTEX INITIALLY...WHICH RESULTS IN TOO MUCH STEERING\r\nINFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THE MORE EASTWARD SCENARIO OF THE OTHER MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE CURRENTLY MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED IN THE FUTURE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF GABRIELLE.  THE STORM HAS COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH\r\nAT LOW LEVELS...VERY DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THE UPPER\r\nLEVELS...IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND IS\r\nPASSING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS\r\nGABRIELLE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE DEEP\r\nWARM WATER OF THE GULF STREAM.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 63 KT...THE GFDL 68 KT...AND THE HWRF 37 KT.  GIVEN\r\nALL THE NEGATIVES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOW\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT NEAR\r\nLANDFALL.  AFTER RECURVATURE...GABRIELLE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE\r\nWITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CENTER REFORMATION\r\nDUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.  WHILE SUCH REFORMATION\r\nWOULD NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN...IT COULD HAVE AN\r\nAFFECT ON IF AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 30.4N  72.2W    40 KT...SUBTROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 31.1N  73.7W    40 KT...SUBTROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 32.3N  75.5W    40 KT...SUBTROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  76.8W    45 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 35.0N  76.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 37.5N  73.5W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 40.5N  67.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 43.0N  58.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GABRIELLE HAS IMPROVED EARLY THIS\r\nMORNING. A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS...\r\nWHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT GABRIELLE IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE \r\nT 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND ST 2.5/35-40 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THIS...\r\nGABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A SUBTROPICAL 40 KT STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS...THE UPPER LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS GABRIELLE\r\nAPPROACHES THE COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  GABRIELLE IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND\r\nWEAKENS...GABRIELLE WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE RIDGE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5 GABRIELLE\r\nSHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.   \r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.    \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 30.9N  73.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 31.8N  74.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 33.1N  76.2W    50 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 34.5N  76.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  75.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 38.5N  71.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 41.0N  62.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 45.0N  50.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  DEEP CONVECTION...BUT WITH\r\nRELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS NEAR -65C...REMAINS CONFINED NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND IS MOST ABUNDANT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH A\r\nDISTANT AND THINNING BAND TO THE NORTHEAST.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT\r\nABOUT 1115Z CAPTURED ONLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT\r\nDID INDICATE SOME BELIEVABLE 40 KT RETRIEVALS BETWEEN ABOUT 60 AND\r\n90 NMI FROM THE CENTER...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...THE STATUS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL GIVEN THAT THE RADIUS OF\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAINS LARGE.  A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN DDSB2 RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1011 MB ABOUT 20 NMI\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LOWERED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 1009 MB.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP US GET A\r\nMORE THOROUGH LOOK AT THE WIND FIELD.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF GABRIELLE IS MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n305/9...WHICH IS ALSO A TAD SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE STORM\r\nCONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST...AND THE\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THAT GABRIELLE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION...SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS AND SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nOUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS\r\nSUFFICIENTLY LARGE...HOWEVER...THAT A LANDFALL FARTHER EAST OR NO\r\nLANDFALL OF THE CENTER AT ALL ARE BOTH POSSIBILITIES.  AFTER\r\nPASSING NEAR OR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...GABRIELLE SHOULD MOVE\r\nFAIRLY QUICKLY BACK OUT TO SEA AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nA SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR GABRIELLE TO STRENGTHEN\r\nBEFORE REACHING NORTH CAROLINA...SINCE THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO TEMPORARILY LESSEN\r\nTONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST MOVES FARTHER AWAY.  GIVEN THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE\r\nCONVECTION CURRENTLY...THAT CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT IS PROBABLY NOT\r\nENOUGH TO WARRANT A FORECAST OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN\r\nBRINGING GABRIELLE TO 55 KT BY 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS\r\nAS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 31.5N  74.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 32.4N  75.3W    45 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 33.8N  76.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 35.2N  75.6W    55 KT...NEAR NC COAST\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 36.4N  74.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 39.0N  68.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  58.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 46.0N  46.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER BEING BRIEFLY INVOLVED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS\r\nMORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY QUITE SEPARATED\r\nFROM THE CENTER...AND THE BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAS\r\nDISSIPATED.  RECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT ARE IN THE\r\nPROCESS OF BEING REUNITED.  GABRIELLE HAS TAKEN ON MORE OF\r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BOTH AMSU AND\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK WARM CORE...SO GABRIELLE IS\r\nBEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.  MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE AT THE FLIGHT-LEVEL OF ABOUT 1000 FT\r\nWERE ONLY 39 KT...EVEN WITHIN THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  GIVEN THOSE DATA AND THE OVERALL LESSENING OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE DEPTH AND COVERAGE...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. \r\nTHE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT STILL LESSEN TEMPORARILY\r\nTONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW.  THAT WINDOW\r\nOF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TO STILL CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nIS LOWERED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR\r\nGABRIELLE TO REACH ONLY 45 KT NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH\r\nCAROLINA...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ONCE GABRIELLE TURNS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EASY TO FIND...BUT THE SMALLER\r\nSWIRL THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO\r\nHAVE ROTATED ABOUT A LARGER MEAN CENTER DURING THE DAY.  THE MOTION\r\nOF THE MEAN CENTER IS NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN BEFORE...OR\r\nROUGHLY 320/7.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING\r\nREASONING HAVE NOT NOTICEABLY CHANGED...WITH GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO\r\nROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nOUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE WAY IN 24-36 HOURS.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR GABRIELLE TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 32.4N  74.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 33.2N  75.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 34.6N  75.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  74.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 37.6N  72.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 41.5N  65.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 46.0N  55.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS DISAPPEARED UNDER A CIRRUS\r\nOVERCAST CAUSED BY A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST...WHICH INCLUDED A\r\nSUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED MESOCYCLONE ON THE\r\nMOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D.  THE BURST HAS ENDED FOR NOW...BUT HAS LEFT\r\nA MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA.  WHILE\r\nTHE RADAR WINDS DO NOT YET SHOW AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...\r\nA RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS THAT\r\nWERE POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35\r\nKT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR IMAGERY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LITTLE TO THE EAST OR\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY POSITION. \r\nGABRIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...IT SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF GABRIELLE IS PASSING OVER THE GULF STREAM...AND THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM EARLIER IS\r\nDIMINISHING.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. \r\nGABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...AND IT SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW BETWEEN 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 33.1N  75.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 34.3N  75.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 35.8N  75.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 37.1N  74.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 39.0N  71.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 43.0N  62.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007\r\n \r\nPEAK 925 MB WINDS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nGABRIELLE WERE 53 KT IN THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\nTHIS WOULD SUPPORT AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS DISPLACED BY 30 NMI OR MORE FROM THE VIGOROUS\r\nMID-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...ON THE FIX MADE JUST A MOMENT AGO...THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL DATA SUGGESTED THAT A NEW CENTER MIGHT BE FORMING\r\nWITHIN THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WOULD LIKELY\r\nSEE SOME STRENGTHENING...MAKING GABRIELLE A MID-RANGE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/9. ALTHOUGH A MODEST WESTWARD JUMP IS\r\nPOSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING IF THE CENTER REFORMS...GABRIELLE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY...AND THEN\r\nBE CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING WESTERLIES AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL OVER THE OUTER\r\nBANKS...BUT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH\r\nAFTER RECURVATURE TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 34.0N  76.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 35.3N  76.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 36.6N  74.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 39.2N  69.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-09 12:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n800 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT GABRIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\nPEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT ABOUT 2 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH HAS REFORMED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION UNDERNEATH\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL ROTATION OBERSERVED OVERNIGHT.  THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nSUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHIS MESOSCALE VORTEX COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE GABRIELLE MAKES\r\nLANDFALL...IT HAS PERSISTED AND BUILT DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AND IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO ASSUME THAT THESE TRENDS\r\nCOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS\r\nTHEREFORE INCREASED TO 55 KT...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED\r\nTHAT THE INCREASED WINDS EXTEND ONLY A FEW MILES FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nA SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE 12 HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOINT...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1200Z 34.2N  76.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 35.3N  76.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 36.6N  74.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 39.2N  69.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE ASSOCIATED\r\nSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST\r\nREFLECTIVITIES ARE NO LONGER WRAPPING AROUND THE SMALL\r\nCIRCULATION... WHICH HAS SEPARATED A LITTLE FROM THE CONVECTION...\r\nPROBABLY DUE TO NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.  IN ADDITION...VELOCITY DATA\r\nFROM THE RADAR SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE AIRCRAFT THAT JUST FLEW THROUGH THE\r\nCENTER HAS NOT SAMPLED THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT...IT HAS NOT FOUND ANY WINDS TO SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED.  SINCE GABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR IS INCREASING...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9...AND RADAR IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE TURN\r\nTO THE RIGHT IS BEGINNING.  GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GABRIELLE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 34.7N  76.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 35.9N  75.8W    50 KT...NEAR NC COAST\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 37.3N  73.9W    50 KT...OVER ATLANTIC\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 38.5N  71.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 39.8N  67.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007\r\n \r\nDROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT DEPARTED GABRIELLE JUST PRIOR\r\nTO LANDFALL SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE LIKELY 50 KT OVER\r\nWATER SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT.  THE CENTER THEN MADE LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE CAPE LOOKOUT NATIONAL SEASHORE AT ABOUT 1545 UTC. SINCE THEN\r\nTHE NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE...AND THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS PROCEEDED NORTHWARD OVER EXTREME\r\nEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS\r\nREMAINED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nINDICATES SLIGHT WEAKENING...BUT MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...GABRIELLE COULD WEAKEN FASTER\r\nTHAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED AND GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nSOON AS IT MOVES AROUND THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 35.7N  76.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 36.7N  74.9W    40 KT...OVER ATLANTIC\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 37.8N  72.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 38.9N  69.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 40.3N  65.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT GABRIELLE IS A POORLY\r\nORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION FAR TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STORM HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN\r\nAND WAS FIXED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...FINDING 42\r\nKT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.\r\nRECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FRISCO PIER SUGGEST THAT 40 KT\r\nREMAINS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG\r\nSHEAR AND ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF WARM WATER REMAINING IN THE\r\nSTORM'S PATH...SOME WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AND IS SHOWN IN THE NHC\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nREDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM AND\r\nMAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION\r\nCONTINUES TO BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...GABRIELLE COULD\r\nLOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND IS ESTIMATED\r\nNEAR 035/9. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nALMOST THE SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES SUGGEST\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF GABRIELLE REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO\r\nBE SEPARATE FROM THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT TO REMAIN A WEAK\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 36.3N  75.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 37.2N  73.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 38.3N  70.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 39.5N  67.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 41.0N  62.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE\r\nREMAINS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RECENTLY\r\nMOVED JUST NORTH OF BUOY 44014 WHICH REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25\r\nKT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...GABRIELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ESSENTIALLY TAKES\r\nGABRIELLE ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.  SINCE ANY\r\nDEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS...INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT. \r\nANY CONVECTION WHICH DOES FORM WOULD LIKELY BE QUICKLY SHEARED OFF\r\nAS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION FOR 2\r\nDAYS AT WHICH TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A STRONGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW.  HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REFORM\r\nSOON...GABRIELLE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/10.  THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING OR GUIDANCE AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\nGABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 37.0N  74.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 37.8N  72.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 38.9N  69.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 40.4N  65.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 42.3N  60.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ABOUT 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER....\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT ALLOWED THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO\r\nACQUIRE MUCH CURVATURE.  A 1026 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 25-30 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 30 KT. \r\n\r\nGABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 070/11.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE\r\nEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS TRACK.\r\n\r\nGABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION UNTIL IT\r\nMERGES WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT ABLE TO GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED...IT MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THAT LONG.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 37.1N  73.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 37.9N  71.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 39.3N  67.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 41.1N  62.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007\r\n \r\nA FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF\r\nGABRIELLE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPEARS\r\nTO BE LESS DEFINED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\nGABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED AND CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF DUE\r\nEAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/15 KT. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST WAS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nMAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT GABRIELLE WILL BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS GABRIELLE AS A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT\r\nABLE TO GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY\r\nOBSERVED...IT MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 37.6N  71.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 38.1N  68.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 39.4N  64.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 41.4N  59.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007\r\n\r\nDESPITE A RATHER HARSH UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...GABRIELLE IS\r\nHANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS\r\nOF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF STREAM.  EARLIER IR IMAGERY AND\r\nLIGHTENING DATA SHOWED SOME RESURGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT RECENTLY THIS ACTIVITY HAS\r\nDIMINISHED AND IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT AND A RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NO VELOCITIES GREATER THAN 30 KT. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM\r\nAND THE CYCLONE COULD PASS OVER ONE OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM CORE\r\nRINGS.  ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD FAVOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING...THE\r\nINCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  IN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM\r\nINTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND GABRIELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY THAT CYCLONE AFTER 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS INCREASING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT\r\n075/17.  GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...AND TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF BERMUDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.K. MET AND GFS TRACKS...\r\nBUT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 38.1N  68.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 39.1N  65.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 40.5N  61.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 43.0N  56.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED ECLIPSE PERIOD FOR\r\nGOES-EAST...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN UNAVAILABLE\r\nFOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT DUE TO A LUNAR SHADOW.  THIS\r\nEVENT OCCURS ABOUT TWICE PER YEAR WHEN THE MOON IS POSITIONED\r\nBETWEEN THE SATELLITE AND THE SUN.  LUCKILY...A VERY TIMELY TRMM\r\nPASS AT 0611 UTC HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER AND INDICATED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. \r\nADDITIONALLY...GABRIELLE IS JUST BECOMING VISIBLE IN THE OUTER\r\nFRINGES OF METSAT-9 IMAGERY...WHICH ALSO SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nTHUS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING RIGHT ALONG THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER A WARM CORE EDDY IN A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE...\r\nGABRIELLE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT\r\nLIMITED...FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SHARPLY COOLER WATERS\r\nTO THE NORTH AND A CONTINUATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD\r\nKEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONFINED SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND PREVENT\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE IN 24-36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE 0611 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 065/18.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH BASED ON THIS DATA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 39.0N  66.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 40.2N  63.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 42.1N  58.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007\r\n\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF\r\nGABRIELLE.  HOWEVER...A 1000 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED SOUTHEAST TO\r\nNORTHWEST. IN FACT...THE VORTICITY CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHEASTERN END OF A\r\nTROUGH CHARACTERIZED BY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SINCE A\r\nWELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION NO LONGER EXISTS...THIS SYSTEM NO\r\nLONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED ON GABRIELLE.  AN ILL-DEFINED REMNANT LOW COULD\r\nPERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER\r\nEASTERN NORTH AMERICA.    \r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 39.6N  65.3W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 40.9N  61.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS ACQUIRED\r\nENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE\r\nEIGHTH OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON.  THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB SUPPORT 30 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 295/10.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nAND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY\r\nOR SO WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE AND MOVE\r\nSLOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THUS...CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS....AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD\r\nHALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 13.2N  44.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.6N  45.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  47.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.3N  48.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.6N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  51.4W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER ESTIMATED NEAR THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 35 KT.  SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30\r\nKT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF NOAA\r\nBUOY 41041...WHICH HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 28 KT AND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008.6 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nDEVELOPS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. \r\nTHIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO DECELERATE DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nNORTHWARD THEREAFTER...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nHWRF...GFDL...UMKET...AND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AND THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEPRESSION SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION\r\nTO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nREMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE AND KEEP THE DEPRESSION\r\nJUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE INCREASING SHEAR.  THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THIS\r\nBY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT SOME\r\nWEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 13.5N  45.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 13.9N  46.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.3N  47.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.7N  48.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 15.1N  49.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.2N  52.2W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  55.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  58.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED IN ITS CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION OR ESTIMATED INTENSITY SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE\r\nDVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU ESTIMATES ARE AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY...SSMI AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS INSTEAD THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS OFFSET ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  UPPER TROPOSPHERIC MOTION VECTORS SHOW THAT THERE\r\nREMAINS SOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT CONTINUES TO IMPACT\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  SINCE THE ESTIMATED CENTER IS NOT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE CONVECTION...THIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTD EIGHT IS SOUTH OF A WEAK DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WHICH IS CURRENTLY\r\nPROVIDING A STEERING OF ABOUT 280/10...SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD THAN\r\nINDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE\r\nTO THE INFLUENCE OF AN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nNORTH OF 25N AT THE SAME LONGITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE TROUGH\r\nSHOULD CUTOFF AND RETROGRADE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS HAS THE\r\nCOMBINED EFFECT OF WEAKENING THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING AS\r\nWELL AS INDUCING RATHER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT THE LONGER\r\nTIME PERIODS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE\r\nDISCOUNTED AS THEY UNREALISTICALLY TAKE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD\r\nALMOST IMMEDIATELY.  \r\n\r\nTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM 28C WATERS...NONE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE TAKES TD EIGHT TO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FIVE\r\nDAYS.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO RATHER DRY AIR\r\nJUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM IN THE EARLY TIME PERIODS\r\nAND THE RATHER SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR AT THE LATER TIME PERIODS. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGE MODELS THROUGH\r\nTHREE DAYS AND A BLEND OF THESE TWO WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nAT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 13.4N  46.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 13.9N  47.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.3N  48.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.6N  49.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N  50.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N  53.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  56.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 18.0N  59.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A LARGE CIRCULAR\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THE\r\nDEPRESSION STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC\r\nWATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nTHIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEPRESSION FROM\r\nSTRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY. WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE AREA WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nLARGE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT\r\n9 KNOTS AROUND A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS.  TRACK GUI DACE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT BRINGING THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AND\r\nWEAKENING. THE UK AND ECMWF MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE A LITTLE BIT\r\nLONGER BUT THIS IS NOT REALISTIC GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED HIGHLY\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 13.9N  47.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N  48.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 14.8N  49.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N  50.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N  51.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N  54.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N  57.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.0N  60.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n \r\nA 0900Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nSUGGESTED THAT SYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW\r\nHOURS.  THE IMAGE DEPICTED A FEW UN-FLAGGED 35 KT WINDS JUST TO THE\r\nEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN...VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A SEVERELY SHEARED...POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THERE IS\r\nSTILL A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  AFTERWARD...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER\r\nMID-ATLANTIC TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND\r\nADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nSUIT AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER SSMIS\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE...THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...REFLECTING AN INITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION\r\nOF 285/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST...WITH A CONTINUED SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nA REFLECTION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT JUST TO THE LEFT...FOLLOWING\r\nA BLEND OF THE UKMET...GFDL...AND THE GFS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 13.9N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N  49.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  49.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 14.8N  50.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 15.2N  52.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.0N  57.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 18.2N  59.6W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALLER WEAKER LOW\r\nROTATING ABOUT A MORE DOMINANT...BROAD...CIRCULATION TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  THE INITIAL POSITION WILL BE BASED ON A CENTROID\r\nPOSITION OF THE TWO CIRCULATION CENTERS.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO\r\nTHE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THIS MORNING...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AS 30 KT.     \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...SUGGESTING A POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY\r\nMODELS INDICATE VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...WITH A WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS\r\nUPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/5...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW OF A\r\nMID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT THAN THIS MORNING...WITH\r\nTHE 12Z ECMWF NOW SUGGESTING A MOTION SIMILAR TO THE OTHER MODELS. \r\nTHE NOGAPS...HOWEVER...SHOWS THE MOST VERTICAL DEPTH WHICH APPEARS\r\nTO BE INFLUENCING A DRAMATIC TURN TO THE RIGHT TOWARD A\r\nRETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT...AND AGREES WITH\r\nA BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION\r\nOF THE NOGAPS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 14.2N  48.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N  49.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.0N  50.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N  51.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  52.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N  55.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N  58.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 19.1N  60.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n\r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN ON A RESEARCH MISSION THIS\r\nEVENING AND FOUND 35 KT WINDS USING THE ON-BOARD STEPPED-FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER (SFMR).  THESE WINDS MATCH UP FAIRLY WELL TO A\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35 KT AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 35 KT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE NINTH NAMED\r\nSTORM OF THE YEAR.  \r\n\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID. \r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SHEAR ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH.  THEREAFTER...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTENSIFY...LIKELY\r\nCAUSING A WEAKENING OF INGRID.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE\r\nSYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE TOO HIGH IN THE LONGER RANGE AS GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING\r\nNEARLY 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IN THE STORM'S PATH. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT TONIGHT...\r\nESTIMATED AT 300/5.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS TRICKY AS IT PROBABLY\r\nHAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF INGRID.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGES SHOW A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS LOW HAS CAUSED A\r\nVERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nREMAINING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A STRONGER\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY BE MORE RESPONSIVE TO THE\r\nLOW...AND MOVE FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT\r\nIS ASSUMED THAT INGRID WILL REMAIN WEAK AND STAY ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR NOW.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 14.7N  48.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.1N  49.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.6N  50.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N  51.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  52.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.8N  56.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N  58.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 20.5N  60.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0452 UTC AMSU-B\r\nMICROWAVE PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LIES BENEATH\r\nTHE LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0/45 KT AND 2.5/35 KT RESPECTIVELY. SINCE A\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING ANOTHER RESEARCH MISSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE...I WILL HOLD OFF\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY UNTIL A MORE ACCURATE MEASUREMENT\r\nCAN BE TAKEN.  SO...INGRID WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 35 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY MECHANISM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF\r\nINGRID WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS OVER THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS.  ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nCURRENTLY AFFECTING INGRID...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN\r\nHAMPERING INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING FURTHER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR TERM FOLLOWED BY\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.  THIS FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGE AND FSSE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AROUND 300/6.  INGRID IS IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT WITH A WEAK RIDGE POSITIONED TO ITS NORTHEAST\r\nAND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  \r\nBOTH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THAT OF INGRID WILL\r\nDETERMINE THE DEGREE OF STEERING THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  SINCE INGRID IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY WEAK\r\nCYCLONE IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BUT SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 15.1N  49.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  50.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 16.1N  51.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.7N  52.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.3N  53.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N  56.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N  58.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N  60.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IS CURRENTLY ON A\r\nRESEARCH MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID IS CLOSER TO\r\nCONVECTION. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. BASED ON THE\r\nAVERAGE OF FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE PLANE...AND \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST SINCE INGRID IS\r\nHEADING TOWARD A STRONGER THAN NORMAL SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nALREADY OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ARE IMPINGING ON THE\r\nCYCLONE...OR AS IT HAS BEEN SAID FOR YEARS IN THE SATELLITE\r\nJARGON...A DAGGER THROUGH THE HEART.  THEREFORE...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INGRID WILL NOT LAST\r\nTHROUGH FIVE DAYS.  IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS ALREADY BEGUN\r\nTO DETERIORATE SINCE THIS MORNING'S CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nINGRID IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THESE CURRENTS\r\nARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS A MID-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF INGRID. THIS LOW WILL PROBABLY FORCE THE CYCLONE OR\r\nWHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHICH IS BOUNDED\r\nBY THE NOGAPS TO THE NORTH AND BY THE UK TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 15.2N  50.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N  50.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N  52.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N  53.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  57.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  59.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N  61.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007\r\n \r\nTHE ANTICIPATED ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER INGRID\r\nHAS MATERIALIZED AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BASICALLY\r\nSHAPELESS WITH NO OUTFLOW. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TRANSIENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT DETERIORATION\r\nOF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS\r\nWHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DECREASE IN DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A PLAGUE OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER\r\nINGRID THROUGH 5 DAYS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL\r\nMID-OCEANIC TROUGH. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO\r\nSHRED THE CLOUD PATTERN...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. I AM SURPRISED THAT SOME MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN THE CYCLONE OR EVEN FORECAST STRENGTHENING...DESPITE THE\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IN FACT...ONLY THE GFS AND THE GFDL BASICALLY\r\nWEAKEN INGRID.\r\n \r\nINGRID IS MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT 6\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL SLOW TRACK...\r\nWHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS WHICH PREVAIL TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CYCLONE OVER OPEN WATERS WELL NORTH OF THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 15.6N  50.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N  51.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N  52.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  54.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  55.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  57.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  58.9W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  61.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007\r\n\r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER HAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH INGRID TONIGHT AND\r\nFOUND A RATHER POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH THE 700 MB CENTER\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN ADDITION...\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE CENTERS AS INDICATED BY\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS EVENING.  AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...THE\r\nPLANE REPORTED SFMR WINDS OF 38 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT HAS NOT\r\nSEEN WINDS ABOVE 34 KT SINCE THAT TIME.  GIVEN THE AMORPHOUS\r\nPATTERN ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STARING DOWN THE BARREL OF A GUN THIS\r\nEVENING. RATHER STRONG UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES ARE IN THE\r\nSTORM'S PATH FOR AT LEAST 48 HOURS OR SO.  SOME WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT INGRID WILL DIMINISH TO\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND POSSIBLY\r\nDISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME.  IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT TO GET SLIGHTLY LESS HOSTILE\r\nAS THE SYSTEM TRIES TO SQUEEZE BETWEEN UPPER LOWS IN THE\r\nMID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THE SYSTEM COULD TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY AT THE\r\nLONGER-RANGES...BUT THERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IT BY THEN.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8...A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THE MOVEMENT SHOULD BE\r\nBETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS \r\nSTEERING VARIES ACCORDING TO THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF INGRID.  A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN THE LONG-RANGE AS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST IN THE NEAR-TERM TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...THEN IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST AS MOST MODELS ARE NOW CALLING FOR RECURVATURE\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE 61W.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 15.9N  51.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.4N  52.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N  53.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N  55.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  56.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.8N  58.2W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  59.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  60.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF INGRID\r\nEARLY THIS MORNING.  BELLIGERENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A\r\nTOLL ON INGRID AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT FROM THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO WILL THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.  ANOTHER NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nBACK INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AROUND 12Z...AND A MORE ACCURATE\r\nMEASUREMENT WILL BE TAKEN. \r\n\r\nINGRID IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AT\r\nLEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THESE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD\r\nINHIBIT ANY STRENGTHENING AND COULD POSSIBLY CAUSE DISSIPATION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AFTER 3 DAYS OR SO THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX AND IF INGRID SURVIVES THAT LONG SOME OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nMAINTAINS INGRID AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/9.  A GENERAL MOTION TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nSLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED AS INGRID...OR THE\r\nREMNANT LOW OF INGRID...RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT...BUT HAS SHIFTED A\r\nBIT MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS JUST EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 16.5N  52.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.2N  54.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N  55.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N  56.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  58.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N  59.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 23.5N  60.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  61.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL MID-OCEANIC TROUGH...MUCH STRONGER THAN NORMAL FOR\r\nSEPTEMBER...HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE ATLANTIC RESULTING IN\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY FLOW OVER INGRID. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS DETERIORATED AND INGRID IS BECOMING A JUST LARGE SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS AS INDICATED BY A NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT AND BY THE LATEST QUIKSCAT...AND BASED ON DATA FROM THESE\r\nOBSERVING TOOLS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30\r\nKNOTS. THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nEVEN FURTHER...SO IT IS FAIR TO SAY THAT INGRID WILL MOST LIKELY\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE MAIN\r\nREASON INGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KNOT DEPRESSION THROUGH FIVE\r\nDAYS...WITHOUT FORECASTING DISSIPATION...IS BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN A CIRCULATION WHICH TRAVERSES THE BAND OF STRONG\r\nWESTERLIES. SOME MODELS...INCLUDING ALL VERSIONS OF SHIPS...SUGGEST\r\nA SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF INGRID BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT MOVES\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE OPEN SUBTROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED...IT IS BECOMING STEERED BY THE FLOW AT LOWER\r\nLEVELS. NEVERTHELESS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND A\r\nLOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN LATER\r\nTODAY...AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF INGRID SHOULD BE PASSING WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN A DAY OR TWO. IN\r\nFACT...THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 16.4N  53.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N  55.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N  56.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N  58.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.5N  59.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  61.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N  63.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  64.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A TIGHT CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED\r\nAND LARGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED\r\nTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SOME CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE BEEN TRYING\r\nTO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE...BUT BECOME IMMEDIATELY SHEARED AWAY BY THE\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF EVEN\r\nSTRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HEADING FOR INGRID.  THIS COULD FURTHER\r\nLESSEN THE DEEP CONVECTION...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nINGRID IS KEPT AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGH DAY 5...SINCE THE\r\nDEPRESSION MIGHT SURVIVE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND CONSEQUENTLY ALL\r\nVERSIONS OF THE SHIPS MODELS SUGGEST A SLIGHT REJUVENATION OF\r\nINGRID BEYOND 3 DAYS IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS SOLUTION\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE BOTH THE SOPHISTICATED GFDL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nDISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS SHEARED AND MORE SHALLOW...DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS IT HAS BEEN STEERED WESTWARD...OR 280 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS...BY THE LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. DUE TO\r\nTHE INITIAL WESTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...BUT STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.  THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS HAS INCREASED BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS. SOME SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...WHILE\r\nOTHERS SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WHICH IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 16.5N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N  56.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.8N  58.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  59.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  60.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  62.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N  63.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N  64.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF INGRID IS MOSTLY EXPOSED ON NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF\r\nCONVECTION IN THE CIRCULATION.  A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND A MUCH LARGER AREA OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS IS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nOVERALL...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT INGRID AND\r\nCAUSE A DISORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN.  QUIKSCAT SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nIN THE 25-30 KT RANGE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT. \r\nMOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN.  THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR MAY LESSEN...BUT THERE\r\nPROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE\r\nIMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL DISSIPATES\r\nTHE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS AND THE GFS DOES THE SAME BY 96 HOURS. \r\nFOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE IDEA OF A WEAK\r\nSYSTEM PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT THE\r\nFORECAST MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON THE SURVIVAL CHANCES OF\r\nINGRID.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...\r\nESTIMATED AT 285/9.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE\r\nLOW- TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS SLOWLY\r\nERODED AWAY BY A TROUGH.  IN GENERAL...MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD THIS EVENING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MODELS RECOGNIZING THE\r\nSHALLOW DEPTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE WEST FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 16.9N  55.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.4N  57.1W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.2N  58.6W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  59.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.8N  60.8W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  62.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 23.0N  63.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND\r\nTHERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT\r\nUNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE\r\nNEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON\r\nHOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS\r\nEXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL. \r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID PERSISTS BUT LACKS ORGANIZATION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS CONSISTENT WITH LATEST DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES AND THE 22Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE CURRENT SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST...AT LEAST FOR THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS...AND INGRID COULD DEGENERATE TO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE DURING THAT TIME...AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGFDL.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...IF INGRID SURVIVES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT DOES\r\nHAVE A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AT THAT\r\nTIME WOULD FAVOR RESTRENGTHENING. THIS ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 17.0N  56.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  58.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.2N  59.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 19.1N  60.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.0N  61.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 23.5N  64.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007\r\n\r\nINGRID IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY DESPITE THE HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  IN FACT...THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IS LESS DISORGANIZED\r\nTHAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO...WITH THE CENTER NO LONGER EXPOSED FROM\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30\r\nKT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  ACCORDING TO THE\r\nLATEST GFS RUN...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 20 KT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nSHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT INGRID WILL\r\nEVENTUALLY REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME LESS HOSTILE LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS THAT\r\nINDICATED DISSIPATION BY DAY 5...THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMERELY MAINTAINS INGRID AT ITS CURRENT STRENGTH.  HOWEVER THE NEXT\r\nNHC ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY NEED TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nBASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST...280/10.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF INGRID IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.  THIS\r\nSHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.  IN 4-5\r\nDAYS A TROUGH DROPPING DOWN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN INGRID NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT\r\nVERY WELL DEFINED SO A SLOW MOTION OF ONLY 4-5 KT IS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSINCE INGRID HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD THAN EXPECTED...AND\r\nTHERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...INTERESTS\r\nIN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 17.2N  57.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 17.7N  59.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 18.4N  60.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.2N  61.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N  62.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 23.0N  64.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N  64.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007\r\n\r\nAFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION OF INGRID HAS AGAIN DETERIORATED.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...AND\r\nTHE LOW CLOUD LINES DEPICTING THE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME\r\nINDISTINCT.  MOREOVER...A NUMBER OF ARC CLOUDS...IMPLYING LOW-LEVEL\r\nDIVERGENCE...ARE SEEN EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATE.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER\r\nSTRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH MAKES SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.  INDEED IF THE CURRENT\r\nDISORGANIZING TREND CONTINUES...INGRID WILL WEAKEN.  HOWEVER SOME\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW TO EVOLVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...IF INGRID\r\nSURVIVES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT COULD BEGIN TO\r\nRESTRENGTHEN IN 3-4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS\r\nFOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST LGEM AND\r\nHWRF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME FRAME.  ALTERNATIVELY THE GFDL NOW\r\nDISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AND THERE IS A LOT OF\r\nSPREAD IN LOCATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON.  CONSEQUENTLY THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/9.  THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS FOR INGRID ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nRIGHT.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nIN 3-4 DAYS MIGHT BE JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT\r\nINFLUENCE ON INGRID'S MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND IS\r\nNOT FAR FROM THE CONU DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE\r\nTO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000\r\nUTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 17.4N  58.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.8N  59.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N  61.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.3N  61.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 20.2N  62.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 21.2N  63.7W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 22.5N  65.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEARED AFTER ABOUT 21Z. ANALYSIS OF\r\nTHE AMBIGUITIES FROM A 2145Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED WINDS NO\r\nSTRONGER THAN 25 KT...AND EVEN THOSE WINDS WERE IN AN ISOLATED AREA\r\nOF SHOWERS ABOUT 80-90 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO DISSIPATE SINCE THEN...SO THE NEW ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 25 KT...DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DVORAK ESTIMATES. ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW CONTINUED STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR INGRID TO STRENGTHEN ON DAYS 3 AND 4 WHEN\r\nTHE SHEAR DECREASES A LITTLE...BUT THAT IS ASSUMING THE SYSTEM\r\nSTILL EXISTS AT THAT TIME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nKEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY\r\nPERIOD...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IT MIGHT NOT BE A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NEARLY THAT LONG.\r\n\r\nTHE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/8.  INGRID\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE LEFT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE...IT IS\r\nSUCH A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. \r\nFOR THE SAME REASON...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE LEFT OF\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALONG A\r\nTRACK THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM.  A GRADUAL BEND\r\nTO THE RIGHT IS STILL FORECAST SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nINGRID IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...INGRID OR WHATEVER\r\nIS LEFT OF IT WILL BE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING REGIME...FAR\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 17.4N  59.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N  60.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.0N  61.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.7N  62.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.3N  63.6W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 20.5N  65.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 21.5N  66.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.5N  67.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007\r\n \r\nINGRID CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...AND NO LONGER\r\nQUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  CONSEQUENTLY...THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY.  STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE\r\nLEFT OF THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A LESS HOSTILE UPPER FLOW\r\nPATTERN IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION HAS LITTLE SIGNATURE IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES AND ITS\r\nCENTER SEEMS TO NO LONGER BE WELL DEFINED.  MY INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 280/10 IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE.  FORECAST POINTS FOR A\r\nBROAD REMNANT LOW ARE PROVIDED OUT TO 24 HOURS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFDL AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 17.5N  60.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N  61.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 18.3N  62.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2007\r\n \r\nRADAR...SATELLITE...AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS MORNING. NWS RADAR IMAGERY FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND\r\nHOUSTON SHOW A LOOSE BANDING STRUCTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANTS...WHILE THE NORTHWEST WINDS FROM NOAA BUOY\r\n42019 INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM LIKELY HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY... TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nINITIATED. WITH 38 KT WINDS REPORTED FROM SHIP V7DI7...THE SYSTEM\r\nMIGHT ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THOSE WINDS\r\nARE JUDGED AS UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT FOR NOW...WITH A BETTER READ ON\r\nTHE INTENSITY EXPECTED WHEN A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES IN\r\nTHE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A\r\nLIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS THEREFORE ANTICIPATED. THE PRIMARY INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL HAVE OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS ROUNDING\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE THAT EXTENDS FROM\r\nTHE ATLANTIC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND\r\nINDUCE A GRADUAL TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...ALTHOUGH WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE AFTER\r\nDAY 2 IS LESS CLEAR.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS DETACH THE SYSTEM\r\nFROM THE WESTERLIES AND LINGER IT ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHERE IT\r\nCOULD REPRESENT A PROLONGED RAINFALL THREAT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 28.1N  95.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.6N  95.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 29.8N  95.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 31.4N  94.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.7N  91.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION OF HUMBERTO HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nDEFINED DURING THE DAY TODAY...WITH A SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nWRAPPING FROM THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALL THE WAY AROUND TO THE CORE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DO NOT YET REFLECT THIS INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION...BUT SFMR DATA...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF SHIP\r\nREPORTS...SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. THERE WERE A FEW\r\nHIGHER SFMR WIND REPORTS IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT...BUT TWO DROPSONDES IN THAT BAND DID NOT CONFIRM THOSE\r\nHIGHER WIND ESTIMATES. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A LIGHT-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nORGANIZATION...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  THE\r\nPRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE SHORT PERIOD\r\nOF TIME THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE OVER WATER...AND THE EXPECTATION IS\r\nTHAT HUMBERTO WILL NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME OVER WATER TO REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/5.  THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION...AND HUMBERTO MAY HAVE ROUNDED THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.  A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND\r\nINDUCE A FURTHER TURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO COULD\r\nDETACH FROM THE WESTERLIES AFTER 48 HOURS AND LINGER NEAR THE GULF\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 28.6N  94.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.4N  94.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  92.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2007\r\n \r\nHOUSTON WSR-88D VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS\r\nINTENSIFIED.  SOME ISOLATED SPOTS OF 65 TO 70 KT WINDS AROUND THE\r\n3000 FT LEVEL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nCENTER.  THIS CORRESPONDS TO A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 55 KT\r\nWHICH WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  RADAR REFLECTIVITY\r\nDATA INDICATE THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL. SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BEFORE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL EARLY ON\r\nTHURSDAY...AND WINDS COULD BE APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE OVER A\r\nSMALL AREA NEAR HUMBERTO'S CENTER WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.\r\n\r\nBASED ON RADAR FIXES THE CURRENT MOTION...030/05 IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HUMBERTO IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nNORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH MOVING EASTWARD OVER TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nTROUGH COULD BYPASS HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANTS.  SHOULD THIS\r\nOCCUR...THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AFTER\r\n48 HOURS.  BASED MAINLY ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL IS A CONCERN WITH THIS SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nSOME LOCATIONS COULD EXPERIENCE PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 10 TO 15\r\nINCHES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 29.0N  94.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.1N  93.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  92.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-13 05:15:00","Key":"AL092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007\r\n115 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPGRADE HUMBERTO TO A\r\nHURRICANE.  BOTH THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAVE\r\nBEEN INCREASED...AND A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED.  THE\r\nUPGRADE IS BASED ON DATA RECEIVED FROM AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT AND NOAA NWS DOPPLER RADAR. \r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...WHICH\r\nWOULD HAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0600 UTC. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0515Z 29.4N  94.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.1N  93.9W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  92.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  91.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO CROSSED THE TEXAS COAST JUST EAST\r\nOF HIGH ISLAND AROUND 0700 UTC THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY COMPLETED ITS MISSION...AND ON THE\r\nFINAL LEG OUT A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL...850 MB...WIND OF 98 KT WAS\r\nREPORTED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...OR AROUND 75 KNOTS AT THE\r\nSURFACE...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 986 MB. SINCE LANDFALL...\r\nDOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nEYE FEATURE WITH THE STRONGEST BAND OF CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND HUMBERTO WILL NOW BEGIN ITS\r\nWEAKENING TREND OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/7.   HUMBERTO IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS.  A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nTHE TROUGH WILL  CONTINUE EASTWARD AND REMAIN FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO\r\nKEEP HUMBERTO OR ITS REMNANTS LINGERING AROUND THE EAST CENTRAL\r\nGULF COAST IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS REASONING AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO COULD POSE A SERIOUS RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF\r\nLOUISIANA...SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN\r\nMISSISSIPPI.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED...AND THE REMAINING HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDOWNGRADED OR LOWERED LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 29.9N  94.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.9N  93.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 32.2N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 32.7N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 32.3N  88.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n \r\nDOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nCYCLONE PUSHES FARTHER INLAND.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT\r\nTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ALONG THE\r\nCOAST...AND SO THE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. \r\nHOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO HURRICANE\r\nFORCE...ARE STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/10. THIS IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH COLLECTIVELY HAVE HAD A\r\nLEFT BIAS OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON OPERATIONAL ESTIMATES...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENED FROM A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION AT 15Z YESTERDAY TO A 75 KT HURRICANE AT 09Z THIS\r\nMORNING...AN INCREASE OF 45 KT IN 18 HOURS.  TO PUT THIS\r\nDEVELOPMENT IN PERSPECTIVE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HISTORICAL\r\nRECORD HAS EVER REACHED THIS INTENSITY AT A FASTER RATE NEAR\r\nLANDFALL.  IT WOULD BE NICE TO KNOW...SOMEDAY...WHY THIS HAPPENED. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 30.6N  93.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  91.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 32.6N  89.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 33.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Humberto","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092007\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2007\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES\r\nAND FORT POLK WSR-88D RADARS SHOW THAT HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nENCOUNTERING INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH WILL\r\nLIKELY LEAD TO THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. \r\nTHUS...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HR.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 040/10.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AND THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MUCH OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO TO TURN SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 36 HR...POSSIBLY RE-EMERGING INTO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  WHILE THIS IS POSSIBLE...IT IS LIKELY THE REMNANTS WILL BE\r\nTOO WEAK TO RE-GENERATE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HUMBERTO BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 31.4N  92.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 32.9N  88.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 32.9N  86.4W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW IN THE GULF HAS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND INTERMITTENT\r\nCONVECTION CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION\r\nPRESENT PROBABLY STRAINS THE DEFINITION A BIT...BECAUSE OF THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT RIGHT ALONG THE COASTLINE...\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED A SMALL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF APALACHICOLA...BUT\r\nBUOY OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A LARGER-SCALE CENTER MAY BE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH.  THE ILL-DEFINED NATURE OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...AS WELL\r\nAS THE LINGERING UPPER-LOW ALOFT...PROVIDE THE RATIONALE FOR A\r\nSUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON A TRACK NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE\r\nCOASTLINE.   MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  BECAUSE THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A LANDFALL\r\nLOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT IN ANY EVENT THE CENTER OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT.  MOST OF THE WEATHER\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS WELL-DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LOW IS FRAGMENTING...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY SLIDING\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE DEPRESSION UNDER\r\nLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE FLOW OF\r\nRELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL AIR INTO THE GULF AHEAD OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...AS WELL AS ITS POOR ORGANIZATION...SHOULD PREVENT\r\nEXCESSIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THE TROPICAL INTENSITY MODELS ALL SHOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT TO A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...WHICH MIGHT BE MORE APPROPRIATE TO THIS SITUATION...\r\nFORECAST LITTLE STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A\r\nCOMPROMISE AMONG THESE SOLUTIONS.  \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 29.2N  85.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.7N  86.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 30.1N  88.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 30.6N  90.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 31.5N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007\r\n \r\nTHE BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS LARGELY\r\nDISSIPATED...WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER HAS INCREASED...\r\nALBEIT MODESTLY.  ADDITIONAL SATELLITE...BUOY...AND RECONNAISSANCE\r\nOBSERVATIONS HAVE CONFIRMED THAT A SINGLE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER EXISTS.  IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IS SEPARATING FROM THE UPPER-LOW.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW JUDGED TO BE\r\nTROPICAL.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STEADY TODAY.\r\nEARLIER FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA IN THE BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nSUGGESTED WINDS MIGHT HAVE BEEN AT TROPICAL STORM FORCE...ALTHOUGH\r\nDROPSONDES IN THE BAND DID NOT INDICATE THAT MUCH WIND.  IN ANY\r\nEVENT...THE BAND HAS SINCE WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n \r\nBASED ON TODAY'S AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n300/8.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FROM TEXAS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nBECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE...A\r\nLANDFALL LOCATION IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT.  AFTER LANDFALL...AS\r\nTHE RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION NOW IS LIGHT EASTERLY BUT NOT\r\nVERY DIFLUENT.  WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE CORE AND LIMITED\r\nUPPER-AIR SUPPORT...IT WOULD NOT SEEM AS THOUGH MUCH\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS IN ORDER PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ALL THE OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AS A WEAK\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nTHAN FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 29.9N  86.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 30.3N  87.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 30.7N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 21 2007\r\n \r\nDATA FROM RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVED INLAND NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA AROUND\r\n0000 UTC TONIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT STRONGER THAN 25 KNOTS\r\nAND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nDETERIORATE.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 8\r\nKNOTS. IT WILL PROBABLY TURNS MORE TO THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35\r\nKWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 30.6N  87.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 31.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 31.0N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007\r\n \r\nTHE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER\r\nTHE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN\r\nPRODUCING SOME PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  THAT CONVECTION HAD INITIALLY BEEN LIMITED TO THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS BEEN STEADILY WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OVERNIGHT.  VERY RECENTLY THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nALSO INCREASED TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE SOME\r\nLONG-RANGE LIGHTNING SIGNATURES HAVE EVEN BEEN DETECTED.  TAFB\r\nPROVIDED A TROPICAL DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0...WHILE THE SAB\r\nCLASSIFICATION WAS SUBTROPICAL 2.5.  THE CYCLONE FELL IN THE GAP\r\nBETWEEN QUIKSCAT PASSES ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...AND DATA FROM A NEW\r\nOVERPASS HAS NOT YET ARRIVED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30\r\nKT.  THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED SUBTROPICAL FOR NOW...GIVEN THAT IT\r\nIS STILL WELL-INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND SINCE THE\r\nCONVECTION IS STILL A BIT DISTANT FROM THE CENTER.  THE RECENT\r\nTRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS\r\nGRADUALLY GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND SHOULD BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...TRAPPED WITHIN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW. \r\nALL AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS WILL CHANGE\r\nSOON...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD\r\nOVER ATLANTIC CANADA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THAT LARGER SYSTEM\r\nWILL PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES ON MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE THAT IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND\r\nCALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE ABSORBED IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.  DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER SSTS NEAR 24 CELSIUS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 40 KT BEFORE TRAVERSING COOLER\r\nWATERS AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 36.2N  46.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 36.7N  46.1W    35 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 38.7N  45.3W    40 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 42.5N  42.5W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007\r\n\r\nAN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE\r\nCIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A\r\nSUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY.  THE\r\nCYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD\r\nSWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND\r\nTO STRENGTHEN FURTHER.  HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY\r\nTO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS\r\nJERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. \r\nHOWEVER...AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSTEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE.  THIS SHOULD PULL JERRY\r\nTOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED.  THIS IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 36.0N  46.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 37.3N  45.8W    40 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 39.7N  44.0W    45 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 44.0N  40.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007\r\n \r\nJERRY IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON A MORE TROPICAL APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES.  LOW CLOUD LINES ARE WRAPPING MORE TIGHTLY AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER AND THERE IS SOME DEEP CONVECTION NOT TOO FAR TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nALREADY ACQUIRED A SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH WARM CORE.  SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN SUBTROPICAL T2.5 AND THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...SO THE CYCLONE WILL STILL BE\r\nDESIGNATED AS A 35-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  JERRY\r\nWILL PROBABLY MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...HOWEVER THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS WILL SOON BE CURTAILED BY COOLING SSTS\r\nAND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS\r\nFORECAST TO ABSORB JERRY IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nJERRY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...360/5.  AS THE STEERING\r\nFLOW INCREASES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nDIGGING OFF OF SOUTHEASTERN CANADA...JERRY SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BEFORE THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CATCHES UP TO\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ABSORBS IT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 36.8N  46.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 38.5N  45.1W    40 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 41.7N  42.3W    45 KT...TROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 47.0N  38.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY NOW RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AND\r\nCONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  A 2204 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nINDICATES THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS DECREASED DURING THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW ABOUT 45 NM.  BASED ON THE SMALLER RADIUS\r\nOF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THE WEAK WARM CORE SEEN IN AMSU DATA...JERRY\r\nIS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/07. THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT JERRY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A\r\nLARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS\r\nLOW IS FORECAST TO ABSORB THE SMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED \r\nBEFORE ABSORPTION SINCE JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATER AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  IF\r\nJERRY IS UNABLE TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT CONVECTION...IT COULD WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR REMNANT LOW BEFORE BEING ABSORBED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 37.4N  46.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 39.5N  44.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 43.6N  40.7W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z..ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION WAS JUST ABOUT GONE AFTER 03Z...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY\r\nRESUMED IN A LOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nJERRY THEREFORE HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN ESTIMATED\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nSTORM IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS HEADED TOWARD\r\nCOOLER WATERS...SO IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH LONGER JERRY CAN\r\nMAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.  THAT WILL SOON BE A MOOT POINT... SINCE\r\nEITHER WAY JERRY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A\r\nCOLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER\r\nEASTERN CANADA IS CLOSING IN FAST ON JERRY.  IN RESPONSE THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/13.  JERRY SHOULD TURN A\r\nLITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SPEED UP AHEAD OF THE\r\nFRONT...EVENTUALLY TO BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.  DUE TO THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION\r\nAND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 38.6N  45.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 41.4N  43.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jerry","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007\r\n\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS NOW DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM BELOW STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  THERE IS NOT MUCH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SO IT IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER JERRY IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nHOWEVER THERE ARE STILL ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO WARRANT\r\nISSUING ANOTHER ADVISORY.  HOWEVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nBECOMING DEFORMED AND ILL-DEFINED.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...\r\nADVISORIES COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.  IN ANY EVENT\r\nJERRY OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11.  THE STEERING CURRENT WILL\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES...SO AN INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 39.5N  44.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 42.7N  41.2W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jerry","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THEREFORE WE NEED TO\r\nMAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. \r\nHOWEVER A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE AREA...AND THE \r\nASSOCIATED VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ABSORB JERRY IN 12\r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 035/20.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE THAT IS APPROACHING 50W.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 41.8N  42.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 45.5N  38.7W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2136Z INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JERRY HAD\r\nOPENED UP INTO A SHARP TROUGH WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  CONSEQUENTLY...JERRY IS NO LONGER A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  AS JERRY\r\nACCELERATED THIS EVENING...MAXIMUM WINDS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH\r\nINCREASED TO ABOUT 40 KT ACCORDING TO THE QUIKSCAT DATA...HENCE THE\r\nAPPARENT UPGRADE BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE REMNANTS OF JERRY\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME FURTHER ENTRAINED\r\nINTO THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 44.5N  37.5W    40 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 24 2007\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED\r\nENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A\r\n2004 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nWERE AROUND 25 KT AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATION OF THESE ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN\r\nHOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE WILL BE WHEN THE TURN MATERIALIZES.  THE\r\nGFS...AND GFDL ARE FARTHER WEST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE\r\nALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS CLOSER\r\nTO THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN 48 HOURS WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nLESS AGGRESSIVE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nINCREASE...WHICH SHOULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 10.1N  36.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 10.6N  38.4W    35 KT-\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 11.2N  41.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 11.8N  44.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 12.5N  47.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 15.3N  50.9W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N  53.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N  54.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nOVER A LARGE AREA SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AGAIN 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KAREN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/14.  KAREN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES...WHICH WOULD TURN KAREN NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nNORTHWARD.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...ANND ECMWF SHOWING A NORTHWARD MOTION BETWEEN\r\n50W-53W...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO WEST OF 56W BY 120 HR.  SINCE THERE IS\r\nOFTEN A TENDENCY FOR THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO HAVE A NORTHWARD BIAS\r\nIN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTH EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...AND THEN TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...IF ANYTHING...HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC. \r\nKAREN IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP VERY CLOSE TO THE STORM\r\nTRACK...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMENTIONED ABOVE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE FIRST TROUGH\r\nTO CAUSE BOTH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND SHEAR OVER KAREN...\r\nAND IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WOULD CAUSE THE\r\nSTORM TO INTENSIFY OR WEAKEN.  THE SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nCAUSE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR WITHOUT STRONG DIFLUENCE...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST\r\nKAREN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 60-72 HR.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KAREN\r\nTO PEAK JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE\r\nTO SHEAR FROM THE SECOND TROUGH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 10.4N  38.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 10.8N  40.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 11.3N  43.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 11.8N  45.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 12.9N  47.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.0N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 22.0N  54.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007\r\n\r\nKAREN IS EXHIBITING SOME BANDING FEATURES ON VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT THAT STRONG OR CONCENTRATED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE STORM IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  KAREN'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nBEING RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DUE TO A NEARBY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS.  WITHIN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC THAT SHOULD CAUSE INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...USING THE GFS FORECAST...SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 20 KT\r\nBY 60 HOURS AND MORE THAN 30 KT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  IN\r\nSPITE OF THIS SEEMINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...SHIPS PREDICTS KAREN\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH ALMOST TO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST RUN\r\nOF THE GFDL MODEL ALSO INTENSIFIES THE TROPICAL STORM INTO A\r\nHURRICANE AFTER 72 HOURS.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT THIS GUIDANCE\r\nIN THE FACE OF SUCH STRONG PREDICTED SHEAR.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...STRENGTHENS KAREN TO JUST\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STATUS AND THEN INDICATES WEAKENING AFTER DAY 3.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION...290/13 THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KAREN\r\nCONTINUES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nAFTERWARDS...A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE SHOULD CREATE A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  IF THIS OCCURS...KAREN SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS.  THE\r\nHWRF AND GFS TRACKS ARE NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND THE U.K. MET MODEL TRACK IS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS...NOT FAR\r\nFROM THE GFDL TRACK...AND FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 10.8N  38.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 11.2N  40.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 11.8N  43.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 12.5N  46.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 13.9N  48.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 17.2N  51.2W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  54.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007\r\n \r\nKAREN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME BANDING FEATURES AND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT ITS PRESENTATION ON INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LACK MUCH\r\nIN THE WAY OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND...IN FACT...THE OVERALL\r\nAMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE HOLDING AT 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED\r\nAND...IF KAREN DEVELOPS SOME MORE CENTRAL CONVECTION...IT COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...AN\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT THE GFS DEPICTS DEVELOPING IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF 55 W IN 2-3 DAYS SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE STRONG\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KAREN.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE...AND SHOWS WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3.  THIS IS GENERALLY\r\nBELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE BUT IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT.  THE LGEM VERSION OF SHIPS...WHICH IS MORE\r\nRESPONSIVE TO CHANGES IN SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHOWS\r\nLESS INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 285/13.  A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BY MID-\r\nPERIOD...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCREATE A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  THIS\r\nFEATURE SHOULD CAUSE KAREN TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY A BLEND OF THE GFDL...GFS...AND U.K.\r\nMET OFFICE SOLUTIONS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 11.1N  39.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 11.5N  41.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 12.3N  44.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.3N  47.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 14.7N  48.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N  52.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 22.5N  53.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007\r\n\r\nAFTER LOOKING RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nDURING THE AFTERNOON...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF KAREN AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 35 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME WITH KAREN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...\r\nALLOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED WELL IN THE ATLANTIC SO FAR THIS\r\nYEAR...ARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THESE SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE AND BROAD CIRCULATION OF KAREN HAS LIKELY INHIBITED\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  WITH THE RECENT\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE FACT THAT\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER\r\nESTABLISHED...IT APPEARS THAT KAREN SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR AS TO EXACTLY\r\nWHAT ROLE A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS WILL HAVE ON THE CYCLONE.  THE GFS DEVELOPS THIS TROUGH A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND\r\nKEEPS A MORE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER KAREN FOR A LITTLE\r\nLONGER.  HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4-5...KAREN IS FORECAST TO MOVE CLOSE\r\nENOUGH TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WOULD\r\nINCREASE.  DESPITE THIS SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN KAREN TO A HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AFTER 48-72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND SHOWS A \r\nLITTLE LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 11.1N  41.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 11.6N  43.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 12.6N  45.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 13.8N  47.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 15.3N  49.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.7N  51.4W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  53.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 22.5N  54.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING RATHER ANEMIC YESTERDAY...KAREN IS FINALLY STARTING TO\r\nPRODUCE PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSUGGEST THE EARLY STAGES OF AN INNER CORE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE RISEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nKAREN IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 280/11.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SMALL WEAKNESS\r\nDEVELOPS IN THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORECAST\r\nOF A LARGE MIDDLE-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND HWRF MODEL SHOW THIS\r\nTROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE LONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  CONVERSELY...\r\nTHE UKMET QUICKLY LIFTS THE SAME TROUGH NORTHWARD BEYOND 72 HOURS\r\nALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nDEVELOPING WEST ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE GFS IS BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nSOLUTIONS AS IT SHOWS THE TROUGH SIMILARLY LIFTING NORTHWARD BUT\r\nWITH A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE IN ITS WAKE.  THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD...ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION BASED ITS PAST\r\nPERFORMANCE AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nWITH THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nGENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...KAREN SHOULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG\r\nWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\nHOWEVER...NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE HWRF MODELS RESPOND TO THE SHEAR\r\nAND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN KAREN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.  IN\r\nFACT...THE HWRF MODEL MAKES KAREN A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY DAY 5.\r\nSINCE SUCH ROBUST DEVELOPMENT SEEMS QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED\r\nINCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED MORE ON\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS WHICH SHOW KAREN REACHING MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 11.2N  42.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 11.9N  43.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 13.0N  46.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 14.3N  48.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N  49.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 18.0N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N  53.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 22.5N  55.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n \r\nKAREN CONTINUES TO SPIN UP AS A RAGGED EYE HAS BEEN SEEN\r\nINTERMEDITENTLY THIS MORNING IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 12Z ARE AT 4.0 AND 3.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  AN AMSU PASS AT 08Z SUGGESTED AROUND\r\n60 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.  THE ADT...HOWEVER...ANALYSES KAREN\r\nA BIT WEAKER AT ABOUT 50 KT.  GIVEN THE IMPROVED PRESENTATION SINCE\r\nSYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF KAREN IS SET AT 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT 285/11 SOUTH OF A WEAK DEEP LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  AN UPPER TROUGH NORTHWEST OF KAREN IS FORECAST BY ALL\r\nMODELS TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE AND PRODUCE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  AT DAYS 3 TO\r\n5...MOST MODELS SLOW KAREN'S PROGRESSION AS THE STEERING FLOW\r\nSLACKENS.  THE MODELS DIFFER AT THE LONG RANGE ON BOTH THE STRENGTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE'S VORTEX AS WELL AS THE AMPLITUDE OF A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH NEAR BERMUDA.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nOF DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH LESS WEIGHT BEING PLACED ON THE NORTHERN\r\nOUTLYING NOGAPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING...IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY\r\nREACH HURRICANE INTENSITY SOON.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nMIXED.  SSTS ARE A WARM 28C THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ANALYZED TO BE\r\nABOUT 15 KT OUT OF THE WEST.  THIS SHEAR DOES APPEAR TO BE\r\nRESTRICTING THE WESTERN OUTFLOW OF KAREN.  THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED\r\nBY ALL MODELS TO BE MAINTAINED OR EVEN GET STRONGER AT DAYS 3 TO 5\r\nDUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE EARLIER MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS KAREN TO A HURRICANE SHORTLY...\r\nLEVELING OFF IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THEN WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND LGEM BUT STRONGER THAN HWRF AND\r\nGFDL WHICH DO NOT BRING KAREN TO HURRICANE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 11.9N  42.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 12.6N  44.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N  46.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N  48.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 16.8N  50.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 21.0N  54.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 23.0N  55.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n \r\nKAREN'S INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING...HAS\r\nHALTED.  THE INTERMITTENT EYE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS MAINLY OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 4.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THOUGH THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN\r\nINTENSITY A BIT LOWER AT 50-55 KT.  AN 1835Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE\r\nALSO GIVES A WIND OF 57 KT FOR KAREN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n60 KT... THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nKAREN IS MOVING AT 295/10 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  A TROUGH IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE LOCATED WEST\r\nOF KAREN IS PREDICTED TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND INDUCE ENOUGH OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO TURN KAREN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN\r\nDAYS 3 AND 5.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST\r\nIN THE 12Z RUNS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT\r\nGUIDANCE EXCEPT TO PUT LESS WEIGHT ON THE GFS EARLY ON...DUE TO ITS\r\nTOO RAPID INITIAL MOTION...AND THE NOGAPS AT DAYS 4 AND 5...DUE TO\r\nITS UNREALISTICALLY LARGE VORTEX AND NORTHWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nAS IN MANY CASES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT CLEAR CUT.  KAREN\r\nREMAINS OVER WARM 28C WATER AND HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE NEARBY BUT IS\r\nBEING IMPACTED BY MODERATE 15-20 KT WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE AND PERHAPS BE ENHANCED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. \r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGM STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY...BUT THIS MAY BE OVERLY\r\nINFLUENCED BY THEIR PERSISTENCE PREDICTOR.  THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE LESS IMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS KAREN TO A\r\nHURRICANE...BUT JUST BARELY...IN A DAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.  HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR CONTINUES TO ADVERSELY IMPACT\r\nKAREN'S ABILITY TO MAINTAIN SYMMETRIC CONVECTION...THEN THE CYCLONE\r\nMAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER THAN PREDICTED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED UPON OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM NOAA BUOY 41041.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 12.4N  43.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 13.2N  45.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 14.6N  47.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 15.9N  48.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N  50.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N  52.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 21.0N  55.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 23.0N  57.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION\r\nTHIS EVENING AND HAS FOUND AN UNUSUAL WIND STRUCTURE WITH KAREN.\r\nSFMR DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...WITH\r\nONE PEAK IN SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 105 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND\r\nANOTHER ONE AT A MORE TYPICAL DISTANCE. IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE AND\r\nSFMR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH\r\nA PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM\r\nEARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND\r\nTHIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH\r\nIS AFFECTING KAREN AND THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OR EVEN\r\nINTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT IS HARD TO FORECAST\r\nANYTHING BUT SLOW WEAKENING GIVEN SUCH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAHEAD OF THE STORM...AND KAREN'S CHANCE TO INTENSIFY HAS PROBABLY\r\nENDED.  INITIALLY...MOST MODELS DO NOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM VERY\r\nMUCH...PERHAPS DUE TO THE LARGE STORM BEING ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF\r\nDESPITE THE SHEAR.  EVENTUALLY...MOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKEN THE\r\nSYSTEM...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE HWRF/GFDL\r\nMODELS THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE GFDL EVEN\r\nMAKES THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE PROVIDED A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION...ABOUT 300/12.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSTORM.  STEERING CURRENTS THEN WEAKEN AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH CREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE MODELS THAT HAVE A\r\nSTRONG...VERTICALLY-STACKED REPRESENTATION OF KAREN...E.G. THE\r\nECMWF/GFDN/HWRF/NOGAPS SOLUTIONS..SHOW THE STORM MOVING MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  HOWEVER\r\nTHE GFDL/GFS/UKMET MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A WEAKER STORM AT THAT\r\nTIME...AND SHOW LITTLE REACTION TO THE TROUGH AND JUST SLOW THE\r\nSTORM AS IT ENTERS THE AREA OF LIGHTER STEERING CURRENTS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LEFTWARD SOLUTION AT THIS TIME AND IS\r\nADJUSTED WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED THANKS TO SFMR DATA...QUIKSCAT...AND\r\nNOAA BUOY 41041.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 13.0N  45.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.9N  46.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 15.2N  48.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N  50.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.5N  51.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N  54.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N  57.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N  58.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON KAREN THIS\r\nMORNING.  RECENT TRMM AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM\r\nTHE MID- AND UPPER-LEVELS.  CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE\r\nAN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\n3.0/3.5 FROM SAB.  TAKING A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALONG\r\nWITH THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY FASTER...ABOUT 300/13.  A WEAK RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nWHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  AFTER\r\n24- TO 36-HOURS...LARGE DIVERGENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE EXISTS WHEN A\r\nDEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  ONE\r\nGROUP OF MODELS MAINTAINS KAREN AS A STRONGER CYCLONE AND TAKES THE\r\nSYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  THE SECOND\r\nGROUP FORECAST KAREN AS A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND STEER IT WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER\r\nSOLUTION...WHICH IS CLOSE WITH THE GFS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR\r\nSO...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nTHE SHEAR TO DECREASE.  HOWEVER...THE DECREASED SHEAR APPEARS TO BE\r\nRESULTANT OF KAREN APPROACHING THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nTROUGH...WHICH WOULD NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING\r\nEITHER.  SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  BUT...IF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMES FURTHER SEPARATED FROM THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN INDICATED. \r\n\r\nNOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND OF 43 KT AROUND\r\n0700 UTC...ABOUT 75 N MI NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 13.6N  46.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 14.6N  48.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 15.8N  50.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.9N  51.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 18.1N  53.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 21.5N  57.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N  59.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNING'S NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER EXPERIMENTAL MISSION\r\nREVEALED AN SFMR MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 56 KT...A MAXIMUM FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WIND OF 57 KT ABOUT 120 NM EAST OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND ANOTHER PEAK WIND ABOUT 20 NM NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE WIND PROFILE RESEMBLES LAST NIGHT'S MISSION WHICH ALSO\r\nINDICATED AN UNUSUAL HORIZONTAL WIND PROFILE.  BASED ON THE SFMR\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE 20 TO 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE THROUGH THE REMAINING\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...SHIPS...AND THE LOGISTICAL GROWTH EQUATION MODEL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nPERIOD...BUT MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTERWARD...THERE ARE GENERALLY TWO\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CLUSTERS INDICATING TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.  THE\r\nECMWF AND THE GFS SHOW MOTION INDICATIVE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING FLOW...WHILE THE REMAINING MODELS REFLECT A STRONGER\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INFLUENCED\r\nBY AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED A MAXIMUM 1-MINUTE WIND OF 37 KT AROUND\r\n1300 UTC...ABOUT 80 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nLOCATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 13.7N  47.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 14.7N  48.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N  50.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 17.0N  52.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 18.0N  53.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N  55.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N  57.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  58.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nPERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT...SOME RECENT DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER\r\nINTENSITY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH DAY\r\n5...INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...SHIPS...AND THE LGEM ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR\r\nWILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND THE 96 TO 120 HR PERIOD WHEN THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS.  CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS\r\nPOSSIBLE...ALBEIT NOT INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nKAREN IS MOVING AT 305/11...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS KAREN PROPAGATES WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP-LAYERED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE AGREEING IN BUILDING THE MID- LEVEL RIDGE MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CAUSING KAREN TO TURN MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 14.3N  48.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.5N  49.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.8N  51.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.8N  52.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 18.7N  54.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 20.5N  55.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  56.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  58.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nA LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF KAREN\r\nTONIGHT.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER ANY DEVELOPMENT.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN EARLIER...BUT\r\nARE STILL BELOW THE PREVIOUS INITIAL INTENSITY.  WINDS WILL BE KEPT\r\nAT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/12 IS A BLEND OF THE EXTRAPOLATED\r\nMOVEMENT FROM THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECENT SSMIS\r\nMICROWAVE PASS.  A SMALL RIGHTWARD BEND TO THE TRACK IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENS.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nTHE WEAKEST IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS DUE TO A MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH IN\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND COULD STEER THE STORM MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN THE STORM OUT TO SEA AND ALL MODELS\r\nBUILD RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM...FORCING A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD WITH THIS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF MODELS AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nIF THE STORM WEAKENS MORE THAN EXPECTED...THIS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO\r\nBE ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE WEST..ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM.\r\n \r\nKAREN SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY\r\nTHE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THIS\r\nPATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...\r\nIF THE STORM SURVIVES THE SHEAR...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE AS\r\nTHE TROUGH WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY RIDGING. RELIABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS CHANGE IN SHEAR AND SHOWS AN INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. IN FACT...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ACTUALLY\r\nMAKE KAREN A HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS. DUE TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THE\r\nLONGER-RANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ONLY BE SLIGHTLY\r\nINCREASED...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE STORM ENDURES THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 14.8N  49.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.7N  50.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.9N  52.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 18.0N  53.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 19.2N  54.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 21.0N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N  57.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 23.5N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KAREN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE LAST\r\nSIX HOURS...AND THE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY\r\nOBSCURED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS WEAKENED.  LATEST CONVENTIONAL\r\nAND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  CURRENT DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO A POSSIBLY\r\nGENEROUS 40 KT.\r\n \r\nAS A RESULT OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nAN UNCERTAIN 290/9.  KAREN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS IN RESPONSE TO A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  IN 48-72 HOURS...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAPPROACH THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nDETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THE TROUGH\r\nWILL HAVE ON KAREN.  BY DAY 4...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR AS THE\r\nTROUGH MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL RELOCATION...AND\r\nFOLLOWS MOST CLOSELY WITH THE GFDL AND GFS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  ONCE THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF KAREN... THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO RELAX AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH RETURNS.  IF KAREN IS\r\nABLE TO SURVIVE THE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...  RESTRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS.  TAKING A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE YIELDS THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH THE\r\nTRACK AND INTENSITY AT THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 14.1N  49.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.8N  50.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N  52.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N  53.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N  55.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 20.5N  56.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 22.0N  57.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 22.5N  60.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF KAREN HAS\r\nMOVED ERRATICALLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE RETURNING TO\r\nA PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  AN EARLIER 0910Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A SMALL AREA OF BELIEVABLE\r\nFLAGGED 40 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  BUT SINCE\r\nTHEN...THAT CONVECTIVE AREA CONTAINING THE COLDEST TOPS HAS\r\nDIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY.  BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT INTERPRETATION AND\r\nCURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nPERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KAREN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES IN BRINGING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING TO A\r\nDEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS AND LGEM.\r\nAFTERWARD...BECAUSE OF THE POTENTIAL OF INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH.  HOWEVER...KAREN COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36\r\nHOURS...AS INDICATED BY BOTH AFOREMENTIONED INTENSITY MODELS.  IN\r\nPREVIOUS RUNS...DESPITE THE OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL\r\nWIND ENVIRONMENT...SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTED SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...IN THE LATEST RUNS...THE GFS WEAKENS KAREN\r\nAND THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO.  ECMWF AND GFDL INSIST ON\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  WE SHALL SEE IN THE NEXT RUN IF THESE MODELS COME TO\r\nAN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/8.  A LOW- TO MID LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KAREN SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. \r\nAFTERWARD...A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TEMPORARILY INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.\r\nAROUND THE 96 HOUR PERIOD...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nINDICATING THAT THE TROUGH WILL FILL AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALLOWING A\r\nMID- LEVEL HIGH TO BUILD SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THIS CHANGE IN THE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE KAREN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST...IF\r\nTHE CYCLONE SURVIVES FOR THAT LONG OF A PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND HEDGES TOWARD THE SHALLOW MEAN LAYER\r\nBAM....SINCE THE KAREN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 15.1N  49.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.5N  50.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 16.6N  52.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.6N  53.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N  54.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N  56.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 21.5N  58.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 22.0N  60.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nNOT SURPRISINGLY...THIS AFTERNOON...KAREN IS ATTEMPTING TO MAKE A\r\nCOMEBACK.  DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  A 1328Z ASCAT OVERPASS HAPPENED TO CAPTURE THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM AND INDICATED 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  HOWEVER...THIS PARTICULAR PASS WAS A FEW HOURS BEFORE\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CANOPY BEGAN TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY.  THE DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM...INDICATING WEAKENING\r\nUNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH DAY 5...DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nUPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/10.  THE UNPREDICTED TEMPORARY\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION COULD BE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE LOW- LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n14 AND KAREN AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH A TROUGH WEST OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...IT IS UNCLEAR IF OR WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL RETURN TO\r\nITS PREVIOUS NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SUGGEST.  THEREFORE...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A TURN BACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS.  THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS\r\nAGAIN...WITH THE GFS AND THE HWRF INDICATING MORE OF A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE OTHER\r\nCLUSTER CONSISTS OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS WHICH REFLECTS A\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  BASED ON THE CONSTANT\r\nINCONSISTENCIES FROM ONE MODEL RUN TO THE OTHER...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THIS MORNING'S NORTHWARD\r\nJOG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 16.4N  49.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.1N  50.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 18.2N  52.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 19.2N  53.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 20.3N  55.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 22.5N  57.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  59.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N  61.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nDETERMINING THE ACTUAL CENTER OF KAREN HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHALLENGE THIS EVENING.  IT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER EXPOSED\r\nCENTER...NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...HAS BECOME JUST ANOTHER SWIRL\r\nAROUND AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST. \r\nA RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT...SHOWING A LARGE\r\nAREA OF LIGHT WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE OLD CENTER.  THUS...THE CENTER\r\nIS RELOCATED WESTWARD TO THE LIGHTER WIND AREA AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nQUIKSCAT AND NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  OVERALL..THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED DUE TO FEROCIOUS WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  EVEN WITH THE\r\nDISHEVELED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...QUIKSCAT SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF\r\nAT LEAST 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nSTRONG WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING OF KAREN. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR THIS TIME SHOWS THE SYSTEM BARELY HANGING ON\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE....AND DISSIPATION IS POSSIBLE. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS CARVE OUT A PIECE OF THE\r\nMID-OCEANIC TROUGH INTO A CUT-OFF LOW THAT MOVES SOUTHWARD NEAR AND\r\nTHEN TO THE SOUTH OF WHATEVER REMAINS OF KAREN. THIS EVOLUTION\r\nCOULD PLACE THE SYSTEM IN A MORE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH MORE EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCUT-OFF LOW. THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THESE CONDITIONS BY MAKING KAREN\r\nA HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS KEEP MODERATE\r\nTO STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME AND\r\nTHIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR DISSIPATION.  UNTIL THERE IS SOME CLARITY\r\nON IF THE SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE THE SHEAR...I'M INCLINED TO MAKE\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE LONG-TERM FORECAST AND KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  OBVIOUSLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY\r\nLOW TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTO SMOOTH OUT THE IRREGULAR MOTION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... A\r\nLONG-TERM MOVEMENT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL MOTION...ESTIMATED\r\nAT 295/8.  A TRACK BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS KAREN MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE\r\nOF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. \r\nTHEREAFTER A TURN TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO\r\nRISING HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF KAREN.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nBEEN MUCH TOO FAR TO THE RIGHT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND...GIVEN THE\r\nCONTINUED WEAK INTENSITY OF THE STORM...THE NHC FORECAST WILL LIE\r\nON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SIMILAR TO THE 18Z GFS. \r\nTHE LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AT 4 AND 5 DAYS IS MOSTLY DUE TO THE\r\nCENTER REFORMATION...AND NOT A HUGE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 16.2N  51.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N  53.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 18.2N  54.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N  56.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 20.7N  57.6W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N  60.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 24.5N  62.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 25.5N  64.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n\r\nONCE AGAIN...LOCATING THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF KAREN\r\nCONTINUES TO BE QUITE A CHALLENGE THIS MORNING.  BOTH CONVENTIONAL\r\nAND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED WITH SEVERAL SMALLER SWIRLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION.  AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED MOSTLY ON\r\nAN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KAREN REMAINS IN AN\r\nEXTREMELY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH 40-45 KTS OF\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTING CONVECTIVE\r\nACTIVITY.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 30 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 35 KTS. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  THE STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER OR NOT KAREN WILL SURVIVE SUCH AN\r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL LESSEN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...PROVIDING A\r\nMORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN.  IN\r\nFACT...THE GFDL TAKES KAREN TO 80 KT IN FOUR DAYS AND THE HWRF\r\nMODEL INTENSIFIES KAREN TO AROUND 100 KT BY DAY 5.  SINCE SO MUCH\r\nUNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN KAREN SURVIVING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...I\r\nWILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND FORECAST KAREN AS A DEPRESSION THROUGH\r\nFIVE DAYS.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO ALIGNED WITH THE LGE\r\nMODEL. \r\n\r\nAN 18-24 HOUR MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF\r\n300/10.  KAREN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE.  IT APPEARS FROM THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE THAT THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL BYPASS KAREN IN THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN\r\nSTEERING KAREN ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT SOUTH OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 16.6N  52.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.4N  54.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N  55.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N  57.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 21.0N  58.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N  60.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 24.5N  63.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 25.5N  65.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karen","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nSTRONGER THAN AVERAGE SHEAR NEAR KAREN IS WINNING THE BATTLE. \r\nKAREN IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AS THE CENTER IS LOSING\r\nDEFINITION AND THE CONVECTION REMAINS WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nAREA OF MINIMUM SURFACE PRESSURE. IT LOOKS LIKE KAREN IS\r\nBECOMING A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. I WAS TEMPTED TO MAKE THIS THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY BUT INSTEAD...AND A BETTER OPTION...IS TO DOWNGRADE\r\nKAREN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND FORECAST IT TO BE A REMNANT LOW\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS WILL GIVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR IF A\r\nNEW CENTER REFORMS NEAR THE CONVECTION. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT\r\nTHAT GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING THE CYCLONE. MOREOVER...THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MAKE KAREN A HURRICANE BY 3 TO 4 DAYS. THESE MODELS\r\nASSUME THAT KAREN WILL SURVIVE THE BAND OF STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER\r\n24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION SEEMS UNLIKELY...I HIGHLY\r\nVALUE THE NUMERICAL MODELS...SO KAREN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION...OR THE BROAD REMNANT CIRCULATION..IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THERE IS NO REASON TO DISCUSS TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AT THIS TIME WHICH IN FACT HAS NOT CHANGED.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 16.8N  53.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N  55.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 19.0N  56.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.5N  57.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karen","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122007\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR HAS BEATEN KAREN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KAREN NO\r\nLONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND BASICALLY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A BROAD AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE WITH STRONG SQUALLS IN A FEW CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...\r\nOR THE REMNANTS OF KAREN...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nAT THIS POINT...I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE IF KAREN IS GOING TO\r\nREGENERATE OR NOT. MODELS HAVE THE LUXURY OF GOING BACK AND FORTH\r\nIN STRENGTHENING OR WEAKENING KAREN IN EACH RUN...BUT I DON'T. THE\r\nBEST WE CAN DO IS TO MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY...AND IF IT COMES\r\nBACK...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...REINITIATE ADVISORIES. \r\nFOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KAREN. ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 17.3N  54.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  55.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-25 22:15:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n615 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER HAS COME IN\r\nPULSES...WITH SUFFICIENT REGULARITY FOR THE LOW TO QUALIFY AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 29 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES HAVE BEEN JUMPING AROUND A BIT...BUT A\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/3.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...AND THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD BEGIN TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR TAMPICO.  THIS SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.  NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...\r\nINCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nIN THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THIS GUIDANCE BUT IS\r\nCLOSER TO THE SHIPS SOLUTION. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2215Z 21.7N  95.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 21.4N  95.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 21.2N  95.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  95.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.8N  95.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  95.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N  97.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY...BUT AN SSMI MICROWAVE PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z DEPICTED THE\r\nSMALL CENTER NICELY AND INDICATES THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/4. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...AND LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SOME OF THE MODELS ROTATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nWITHIN A BROADER LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF\r\nUNTIL MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  GIVEN THE INTERMITTENT NATURE OF THE CONVECTION...AND\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT A FAVORABLE UPPER FLOW\r\nPATTERN MAY TAKE A COUPLE DAYS TO DEVELOP...A SHORT-TERM LOOPING\r\nSCENARIO MIGHT BE A REASONABLE ONE.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING TODAY...AND IS PRESENTLY AT A\r\nMINIMUM. THERE IS STILL SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST\r\nNEAR TAMPICO. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND BE REPLACED BY AN\r\nUPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH\r\nDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THAT OCCURS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE\r\nGFDL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN AND IS\r\nNOW IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE LATEST\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LESS QUICKLY\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 21.7N  95.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N  95.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 21.3N  95.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.1N  95.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.9N  95.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N  96.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 20.0N  98.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT A\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL OF 1500 FT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1007-1008 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER FOUND THE CENTER ABOUT 40 NM MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH OF\r\nTHIS IS MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 180/3.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHR...WITH PERHAPS SOME SMALL-SCALE LOOPING OF THE CENTER.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE GFS\r\nAND EUROPEAN MODELS SHOW A SOUTHWARD MOTION...WHILE THE UKMET AND\r\nHWRF MODELS SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nCOMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES BY SHOWING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 24 HR...WITH THE CENTER REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HR...ABOUT A DAY EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED MAINLY ON\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR TUXPAN\r\nMEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO MOVE\r\nSOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...ALLOWING AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM WITH LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL....AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTHUS CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING TO 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  SHOULD THE DEPRESSION STAY OFFSHORE LONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST...IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN 45 KT BEFORE LAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 21.0N  95.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.8N  94.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.6N  94.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 20.3N  95.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.1N  96.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N  98.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION'S CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 30 AND 35 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  WE WILL WAIT FOR THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nFIX SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM HAS INDEED\r\nSTRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF TUXPAN MEXICO IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...AND AWAY FROM\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW THAT THE\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE...COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...PARTICULARLY IF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 180/2.  A WEAK STEERING CURRENT\r\nHAS PREVAILED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY MOVE QUITE SLOWLY\r\nAND ERRATICALLY TODAY.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD SLOWLY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY RESULT IN A SOUTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO.  \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATES THE\r\nABOVEMENTIONED MOTION...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONGST\r\nTHE INDIVIDUAL MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED... HOWEVER...THAT ALL OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE THROUGH 36 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nGULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 20.9N  95.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.7N  95.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N  95.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.3N  95.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 20.1N  96.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N  97.7W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL-ORGANIZED WITH DISTINCT BANDING\r\nFEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE BOTH AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...LOOKS CAN\r\nBE DECEIVING...AND RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nMISSION INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A GENEROUS\r\nESTIMATE SINCE THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE ONLY 29 KT. \r\nGIVEN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...DECREASING SHEAR...AND VERY\r\nWARM WATERS...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND COULD BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS MEANDERING OR MAY BE\r\nEXECUTING A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD GRADUALLY FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE\r\nGULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY STEER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO.  HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREMMENT.  THE\r\nU.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL TRACK IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE COAST IN ABOUT 66\r\nHOURS.  THE HWRF MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM MEANDERING OFFSHORE AND\r\nWEAKENS IT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS\r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...IN CONTRAST TO THE MUCH SLOWER ECMWF\r\nWHICH DOES NOT SHOW THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COASTLINE UNTIL NEARLY\r\n84 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THESE\r\nVARIOUS OBJECTIVE TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE MEANDERING MOTION DELAYS THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nFOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO A LITTLE MORE...BUT THE WATCH COULD BE\r\nISSUED LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 21.3N  94.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 21.2N  94.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 20.9N  95.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.7N  95.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  96.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N  97.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DEGRADED THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST OF A\r\nSMALL BAND OF MODEST CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB HAVE DECREASED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30\r\nKT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED A SMALL LOOP...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 260/3...BASED MAINLY ON A 2315Z\r\nMICROWAVE PASS.  THERE HAS BEEN A BIT OF A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nEASTWARD IN THE MODEL RUNS...WHICH ALLOWS THE DEPRESSION TO ACQUIRE\r\nSOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD...AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.  NEARLY ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE MODELS ARE\r\nEVEN FARTHER NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS ANTICYCLONIC AND\r\nDIFLUENT...AND IT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED YET.  THE UPPER-FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE\r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT...SO PERHAPS IT IS JUST A MATTER OF TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WITH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF FORECASTING A LITTLE LESS DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL\r\nMAKING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST BRINGS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST IN 36 HOURS...NECESSITATING A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 21.2N  94.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 21.1N  95.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 20.9N  95.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.9N  96.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  97.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN INCLUDED A 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nOF 36 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1008 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT\r\nALVARADO SHOW INCREASING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...ALTHOUGH THE BANDING IS NOT WELL DEFINED.  BASED ON\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE DEPRESSION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION...WHILE THE THREE FIXES FROM THE MISSION SUGGEST A\r\nWESTERLY MOTION.  PUTTING THESE TOGETHER YIELDS AN UNCERTAIN MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 245/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAWINSONDE DATA SHOW\r\nTHAT THE MID/LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS BUILDING EASTWARD\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS.  THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SINCE LAST\r\nNIGHT...WITH THE MODELS NOW SPREAD BETWEEN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK GFS AND THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACKING UKMET.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH LANDFALL\r\nON THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HR.  IT LIES A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...ALTHOUGH WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND DRY AIR MAY BE TEMPORARILY UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nANTICYCLONE.  THE MODELS FORECAST THIS FLOW TO DECREASE...LEAVING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 50 KT AT LANDFALL\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nMEXICO BY 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 20.8N  95.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 20.7N  95.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.6N  96.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.6N  97.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 20.9N  98.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE ALVARADO RADAR IN MEXICO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY... \r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSTAY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT\r\nANY TIME.   MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A STRENGTHENING\r\nTROPICAL STORM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WILL BE IN THE DEPRESSION AROUND\r\n18Z.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nREMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DRIFT TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A\r\nSLOW WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS\r\nPRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 20.7N  95.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 20.4N  95.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.3N  96.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N  97.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-27 18:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n200 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS JUST TO UPGRADE THE\r\nINITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF RECENTLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM\r\nLORENZO. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1800Z 20.5N  95.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 20.4N  96.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.3N  96.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LORENZO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND THE PRESSURE HAS\r\nCOME DOWN TO AT LEAST 999 MB. THE CREW REPORTED A VERY TIGHT CENTER\r\nTHAT WAS VERY HARD TO FIX...WITH A LOT OF CONVECTION. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS.  THIS INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE\r\nMORE THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BECAUSE THE SHEAR\r\nIS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...LORENZO COULD EASILY CROSS THE COAST\r\nAS A HURRICANE. WE ALL KNOW THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN\r\nDESPITE ALL THE RECENT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES...AND THE WINDS AT\r\nLANDFALL COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN INDICATED.\r\n \r\nLORENZO CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE\r\nLORENZO ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE\r\nGULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING LORENZO TO THE COAST IN\r\nABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE SLOW MOTION OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL\r\nALONG ITS PATH.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 20.4N  95.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 20.4N  96.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  97.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007\r\n \r\nWHEN THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT LORENZO AROUND 1930Z...\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS FALLING AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 MB/HR.\r\nAT THAT TIME...LORENZO WAS VERY CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. SINCE\r\nTHEN...LORENZO HAS BEEN MAINTAINING VERY VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT\r\nHAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE CENTER. THE PRESENTATION\r\nOF THE CENTER HAS ALSO IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY ON THE ALVARADO\r\nRADAR...WHICH NOW SHOWS A CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THIS...I HAVE NO\r\nREASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE EARLIER DEEPENING TREND HAS ABATED...AND\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT. LORENZO STILL HAS\r\nSEVERAL HOURS LEFT OVER WATER TO DEEPEN FURTHER...AND A CATEGORY\r\nTWO HURRICANE AT LANDFALL WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE\r\nNEXT AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS BASIC TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE RIDGE AFTER\r\nLANDFALL.     \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH LORENZO IS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE...ITS SLOW MOTION WILL\r\nLIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...THAT\r\nARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 20.5N  96.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.6N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nLORENZO MADE LANDFALL BEFORE THE LAST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nARRIVED....BUT RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALVARADO MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nCENTER MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 0500 UTC...ABOUT 40 N MI\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN.  THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE EYEWALL\r\nWAS DEGRADING AS THE CENTER WAS CROSSING THE COAST...SO THE\r\nLANDFALL INTENSITY IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT. \r\nGOES IMAGERY AFTER THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD SHOWS MUCH WARMER\r\nCLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER THAN PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT A RATHER\r\nPOTENT BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF LORENZO TO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ.  THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...POSSIBLY UP TO 15\r\nINCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS...THAT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nSINCE LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED A SLIGHT TURN\r\nTO THE RIGHT AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6.  A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST...SLOWLY TAKING LORENZO FARTHER INLAND OVER\r\nEAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE PACE OF DECLINE IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE DECAY SHIPS DUE TO THE SMALL\r\nSIZE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 20.6N  97.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.9N  98.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS\r\nWEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER\r\nINLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THERE ARE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWITH SOME HEAVY SQUALLS ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES\r\nAT 8 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. \r\n\r\nSINCE LORENZO IS MOVING SLOWLY...IT CAN STILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL\r\nRAINS ALONG ITS PATH.   \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 20.6N  98.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  99.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 21.5N 101.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LORENZO NO\r\nLONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A\r\nBROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nOF A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TONIGHT.\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON LORENZO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 20.8N  99.0W    20 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...MICROWAVE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR\r\nTHE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WITH WELL\r\nESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. A SHIP LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nREPORTED 29 KNOTS. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE THE SHEAR IS\r\nLOW.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A RATHER STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER HIGHER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48 HOURS. THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH\r\nLOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT MAKES THE DEPRESSION A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. \r\n\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MORE\r\nINFORMATION FROM GLOBAL MODELS AFTER THE 12Z RUN. \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 14.1N  26.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N  27.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N  28.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N  30.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 17.0N  31.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N  34.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 21.0N  36.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N  36.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER\r\nTODAY. THERE ARE PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nBECOMING DISRUPTED. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAS BECOME EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL HAS CHANGED ITS\r\nTUNE AND SHOWS INCREASING WIND SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND SO\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE...\r\nALTHOUGH SMALL...TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES FURTHER.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE\r\nBEYOND THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE EXCEPT BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN GLOBAL GUIDANCE\r\nDISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 14.0N  27.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 14.4N  27.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N  29.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.5N  30.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N  32.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 18.5N  34.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N  35.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 22.5N  36.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS\r\nINCREASED DURING THE EVENING...BUT IS BEING DISPLACED EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS DID NOT SHOW ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT OUTSIDE THE\r\nCONVECTION...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE CONVECTION LOOKING SUSPECT\r\nDUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT\r\nBASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/4.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST WILL WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  THIS EVOLUTION IS FORECAST TO STEER THE\r\nDEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF\r\nMODELS KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE AND IN CONSEQUENCE SHOWS A MORE\r\nWESTERLY TRACK.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BE MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR PERHAPS 24\r\nHR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING\r\nTO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HR AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.  NONE OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EXIST AS A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION BY 120 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nDISSIPATION BY THAT TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 14.2N  27.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N  28.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.1N  30.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 15.8N  31.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 16.8N  33.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 18.5N  35.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 20.5N  37.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  0319Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER WAS UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...BUT\r\nSUBSEQUENT GOES IMAGES HINT THAT THE CONVECTION IS WRAPPING MORE\r\nAROUND THE CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z\r\nWERE A CONSENSUS 30 KT...BUT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER AND\r\nPROVIDE THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH\r\n35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.\r\n \r\nIT IS CLEAR THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY MOVING...BUT THE EXACT\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESTIMATED TO BE 270/3.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...LACKING A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH DUE TO A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.  AS THAT LOW PROCEEDS\r\nEASTWARD...ALL OF THE MODELS DEPICT SOME RIDGING TO GRADUALLY BUILD\r\nBACK IN OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE\r\nON HOW THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL RESPOND.  THE HWRF PROVIDES\r\nTHE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION...TAKING THE CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE\r\nSOUTHERN EXTREMES.  IN GENERAL...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED\r\nAGAIN TO THE LEFT...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH CALLS\r\nFOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A RELATIVELY WEAK-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A BELT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR\r\nA LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT THEN IT\r\nWILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT\r\n40 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...BUT\r\nCALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS IN THE\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT LIES AHEAD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 14.1N  27.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.4N  28.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.8N  30.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.5N  32.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 16.2N  34.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N  38.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N  42.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nSHEAR CONTINUES TO BE A PROBLEM FOR STORMS IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THE\r\nCENTER OF MELISSA HAS ALSO BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION DUE\r\nTO WESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR PATTERN IS COMMON AT THE\r\nEND OF SEPTEMBER NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nSTILL SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM STATUS GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL-\r\nDEFINED CIRCULATION AND THE TIGHT SURFACE CENTER. SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN MARGINAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MELISSA COULD KEEP\r\nITS STORM STATUS. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND A COOL OCEAN WILL\r\nLIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF NOT EARLIER.\r\n\r\nMELISSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nEXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN KNOW MELISSA\r\nIS THERE...AND IF THEY KNOW...THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO. THAT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE MODEL SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 15.2N  28.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 15.6N  29.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  31.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 17.6N  33.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N  35.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N  39.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 21.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 23.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER BEING EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS...NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nREGENERATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...\r\nPRIMARILY OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AS WELL AS THOSE\r\nPROVIDED BY UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STILL A 35-KNOT\r\nTROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 TO 20\r\nKNOTS OVER MELISSA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nKEEP ITS STORM STATUS FOR THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND\r\nA COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF\r\nNOT EARLIER.\r\n \r\nMELISSA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300\r\nDEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN\r\nWILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. IN THE LAST\r\nRUN...MODELS KEEP MELISSA A LITTLE LONGER...AND ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 15.6N  29.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 16.3N  30.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N  33.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.0N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  37.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.5N  41.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 24.0N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 26.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR MELISSA FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF A NEW\r\nBURST OF THUNDERSTORMS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nINCREASING A LITTLE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE NUDGED\r\nUPWARD TO 40 KT.  THIS INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE NHC FORECAST... AND THEN\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES OVER\r\n30 KT OF DESTRUCTIVE WESTERLY SHEAR.  MELISSA IS A SMALL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND SINCE SMALL STORMS ARE TYPICALLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO\r\nSHEAR...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING FOR IT TO DISSIPATE FASTER THAN\r\nSHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\n295/8...BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CENTER\r\nBEING OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF MELISSA SHOULD KEEP THE STORM ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A\r\nSMALL ACCELERATION.  IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES A BIT...IT MAY\r\nBRIEFLY MOVE A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...BUT THAT TRACK WOULD TAKE IT\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS MORE QUICKLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE UMKET/GFDL/NOGAPS MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 15.8N  30.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N  31.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 17.4N  33.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  35.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N  38.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 22.0N  42.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 24.5N  44.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007\r\n \r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS GETTING THE BEST OF MELISSA AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION RECENTLY BECAME EXPOSED.  NEW CONVECTION HAS \r\nFORMED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF\r\nBEING SHUNTED EASTWARD.  BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.  WITH THE\r\nSHEAR EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND THE SSTS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN A\r\nDAY OR SO...MELISSA COULD STRUGGLE TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nDEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER. \r\n \r\nMELISSA HAS PICKED UP FORWARD SPEED WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nNOW 295/11.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON HOW LONG\r\nMELISSA CAN MAINTAIN APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEPTH.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE ESSENTIALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS SHOW MELISSA REMAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP CYCLONE WITH A\r\nSHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN BEYOND 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE WEAKER AND SHALLOWER HWRF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOW AN ALMOST INSTANT TURN WESTWARD.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nASSUMES MELISSA WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT IS SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 16.5N  31.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.2N  33.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 18.3N  35.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.3N  37.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 20.5N  39.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.0N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 26.0N  44.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Melissa","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007\r\n\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON MELISSA. AFTER MOST OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION DISSIPATED ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY\r\nBEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SMALL PULSATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT\r\nHAVE EACH LASTED ABOUT 3 HOURS.  AN 0818 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED.  VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY REVEALS THAT WHATEVER CENTER REMAINS IS TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...REQUIRING A RELOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 25 KT\r\nAND MELISSA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. SINCE MELISSA IS BECOMING A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE RELOCATION...AND IS CLOSER\r\nTO THE HWRF AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE AS\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS MELISSA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BECOME\r\nLESS DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT GENERATE ENOUGH ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION...IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 16.1N  32.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.7N  34.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 17.7N  36.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 18.8N  38.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 20.2N  40.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Melissa","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007\r\n\r\nAS WAS THE CASE WITH INGRID...AND KAREN...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED\r\nANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nMELISSA HAS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE FEW VERY SMALL CLUSTERS OF\r\nCONVECTION TODAY...EACH OF WHICH HAS LASTED ONLY A FEW HOURS.  \r\nSINCE MELISSA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING\r\nTHE PAST 12-18 HOURS...IT NO LONGER CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE REMNANT LOW...IF IT SURVIVES FOR A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...MAY TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 16.3N  34.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.7N  35.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 17.7N  38.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.9N  40.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N  42.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152007\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC EAST OF BERMUDA HAS\r\nBEEN MAINTAINING STEADY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT\r\n12 HOURS OR SO...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT\r\n18Z HAVE RISEN TO T1.5.  ON THIS BASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN.  AN ASCAT PASS NEAR 14Z SUGGESTS THAT\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/14.  THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF\r\nAN UPPER LOW THAT IS PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nCENTER.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE\r\nREPLACED BY EVEN STRONGER NORTHERLIES OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. \r\nIN THIS STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nDEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONNECTION THE CENTER MAINTAINS WITH THE FLOW\r\nALOFT.  THE 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE ALREADY\r\nSEPARATED THE CENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH OF COURSE\r\nHASN'T HAPPENED YET.  AS A RESULT...MY FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  BEFORE\r\nTOO LONG...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD PREVAIL...LEAVING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND TO MEANDER UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE AREA IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.\r\n\r\nWITH STRONG SHEAR FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE CYCLONE...LITTLE OR\r\nNO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICICAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL DOES BRING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH...BUT THERE IS ONLY A VERY SHORT\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS TO OCCUR. \r\n\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY FROM KAREN'S\r\nREMNANTS HAS PLAYED A ROLE IN THE GENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO ATTACH THAT NAME TO\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 30.1N  50.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 30.1N  49.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.0N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 30.0N  48.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  47.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152007\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE \r\nTHIS EVENING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25\r\nAND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS ONCE AGAIN IN THE QUIKSCAT GAP...BUT AMSU AND SSMI\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN FINDING THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nBASED ON THE MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nBEEN DECELERATING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 090/8 KT.    \r\n \r\nAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS APPROACHING THE\r\nCYCLONE FROM THE WEST.  AS THIS TROUGH MOVES BY THE DEPRESSION\r\nTONIGHT....THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT HAVE\r\nBEEN PLAGUING THE SYSTEM WILL BE REPLACED BY STRONGER NORTHERLIES. \r\nTHEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE \r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...\r\nIF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECELERATE AND MEANDER UNTIL A COLD FRONT\r\nAPPROACHES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK....CLOSE\r\nTO THE 18Z UKMET SOLUTION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 30.0N  49.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  48.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 30.1N  48.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.4N  48.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N  48.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152007\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIFTEEN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH THE CENTER A\r\nLITTLE LESS INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION THAN 6 HR AGO.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE\r\nEAST AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 090/3.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A CONDITION THAT\r\nIS FORECAST TO CAUSE 24 HR OR SO OF SLOW MOTION.  AFTER THAT...A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST\r\nWILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND STEER THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMAINS...\r\nNORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPS\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE MOMENT. \r\nHOWEVER...ALL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO BE\r\nBLASTED BY 40-50 KT OF UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITHIN 12-24 HR. \r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n24-36 HR...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST A REMNANT CIRCULATION TO SURVIVE 48 HR...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO INDICATE A REMNANT LOW TO THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 30.0N  49.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 30.1N  49.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 30.4N  48.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 30.9N  48.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 32.3N  48.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CELLS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK-T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING EASTWARD ABOUT 2 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 30.1N  49.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.5N  49.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT IT IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...\r\nTHEREFORE REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE SYSTEM COULD STILL\r\nPRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD DRIFT\r\nIS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 30.8N  49.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 31.5N  49.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 32.5N  49.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...WHILE QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/6.  THE LARGE\r\nCYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW OVER HAITI AND SURFACE TROUGHS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nAND GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE\r\nATLANTIC RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY\r\n96-120 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH A\r\nRANGE OF POSSIBILITIES.  THE UKMET KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF CUBA\r\nBY 120 HR...WHILE THE NOGAPS FORECASTS IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 72-96 HR...THEN EITHER RECURVE OR\r\nRE-FORM NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.  THE GFDL AND THE\r\nHWRF CALL FOR A TRACK ACROSS HAITI AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOWING THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BY 96-120 HR DUE TO SHEAR.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THIS SPREAD...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY A SLOW RECURVATURE INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF.\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION AND VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS BUILD A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THAT COULD\r\nPRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...IF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS UNDER IT RATHER THAN NORTH OF IT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE OVER THE ATLANTIC\r\nDESPITE STRONG SHEAR.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR...BELOW\r\nTHAT OF THE SHIPS...GFDL..AND HWRF.  AFTER 72 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE GREATER THAN NORMAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 15.9N  71.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.6N  72.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 17.7N  74.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 18.8N  76.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 19.6N  77.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 22.5N  80.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 25.0N  78.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON INFRARED OR\r\nNIGHT-VIS IMAGERY.  RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO ARE NOT\r\nCONCLUSIVE...BUT SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING ON ITS\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/6.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LACKS ANY APPRECIABLE BANDING...AND A\r\nRECENT ASCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE THAT ANY STRENGTHENING HAS\r\nOCCURRED.  WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL WASH OUT\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE UNDER A LESS HOSTILE\r\nUPPER PATTERN...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BE IDEAL FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LAND\r\nINTERACTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WOULD HINDER\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS...WHICH\r\nSUGGEST A MORE VERTICALLY-CONNECTED CYCLONE THAN APPEARS TO\r\nEXIST...ARE LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM.\r\n\r\nTRACK FORECASTING OF WEAK SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS IS\r\nPARTICULARLY CHALLENGING...AND THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREFLECTS THIS UNCERTAINTY.  THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC PLAYERS ARE THE\r\nUPPER-LOW ALREADY MENTIONED...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE\r\nSURROUNDING THE DEPRESSION...AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT\r\nFOUR DAYS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF LIE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TAKING THE CYCLONE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS APPEARS TO RESULT\r\nFROM AN OVERLY STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW.  ANOTHER\r\nSCENARIO IS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LOW...BUT THEN BEND BACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE DAYS AROUND THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL\r\nGYRE...BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEASTWARD WHEN THE SHORT WAVE\r\nARRIVES ON DAYS 4-5.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF THE UKMET.  ON THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE ARE THE BAM MODELS AND THE\r\nGFS...WHICH TAKE A RELATIVELY WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED LOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ARRIVES AND\r\nSLOWLY RECURVES THE CYCLONE.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT IS WORTH REITERATING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY\r\nLEVEL IS HIGH.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 16.2N  72.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N  73.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N  74.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.9N  76.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.7N  77.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 21.5N  80.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 23.0N  79.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 25.0N  77.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-10-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME FAIRLY\r\nIMPRESSIVE...FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  INFRARED CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE QUITE COLD OVER A LARGE AREA...AND THERE IS EVEN A\r\nBAND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD...GIVING THE SYSTEM A COMMA SHAPE.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION CERTAINLY SEEMS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...BUT THE AVAILABLE DATA AT THE MOMENT ARE INCONCLUSIVE AS TO\r\nWHETHER OR NOT THIS HAS YET OCCURRED.  THE EASTERN EDGE OF A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 1115Z ONLY CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND DID NOT RETRIEVE ANY RELIABLE WINDS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 06Z\r\nAND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO DEPART SHORTLY TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION AND GIVE US A BETTER HANDLE ON THE\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS\r\nA SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nHEIGHTS RISE FARTHER TO THE EAST.  SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...IN\r\nPARTICULAR THE GFDL AND HWRF...RESPOND TO THIS PATTERN CHANGE BY\r\nFORECASTING A RELATIVELY QUICK RECURVATURE OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN VIA\r\nEASTERN CUBA.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST A\r\nSLOWER MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE SOUTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 3 AND 5 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SAME PATH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT AT\r\nA SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE HUGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ALSO TRANSLATE INTO A\r\nVERY CHALLENGING INTENSITY PROGNOSIS.  IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WERE\r\nTO VERIFY PERFECTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD REMAIN OVER\r\nWATER FOR ABOUT FOUR MORE DAYS BEFORE CROSSING CUBA.  SINCE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO...THE RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND\r\nSHEAR WOULD PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  IF...HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CYCLONE GOES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LAND INTERACTION WOULD\r\nOCCUR SOONER AND PERHAPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD AND COULD LIMIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  FINALLY...A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST COULD\r\nPLACE THE CYCLONE WITHIN A WEAKER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING THAN FORECAST.  IF THE CYCLONE DOES RECURVE\r\nTOWARD THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES NORTH OF CUBA ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE\r\nSTRONG AND NOT CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...AT LEAST\r\nNOT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nPEAKS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nBETWEEN THE LGEM AND SHIPS SOLUTIONS...AND MUCH LESS THAN THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF FORECASTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 16.5N  72.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.0N  73.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.0N  75.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N  76.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N  78.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N  79.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 22.0N  80.0W    50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N  78.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-10-28 18:15:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE\r\nINITIAL AND FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR TROPICAL STORM\r\nNOEL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON 1000-FT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...AND SFMR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 45\r\nAND 50 KT.  INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nUPWARD.  THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 45 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION.\r\n\r\nPLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS\r\nNOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE\r\nTHE WORD KNOLL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1815Z 16.9N  72.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.6N  72.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.7N  74.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.9N  75.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 21.1N  76.6W    50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 22.5N  77.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  77.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 25.5N  75.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-10-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007\r\n \r\nEARLIER TODAY THE CIRCULATION CENTER REFORMED CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENED...AS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM\r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT.  THE POSITION FIXES FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/4.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT BASED ON SFMR AND\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVATIONS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CONFINED\r\nTO THE AREA BETWEEN THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE SOUTHERN COAST OF\r\nHISPANIOLA...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND\r\nSOUTH WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IS MOSTLY CONVECTION-FREE.\r\n\r\nFOLLOWING THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HWRF AND GFDL WHICH STILL\r\nPROVIDE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS\r\nAND SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS THE MODELS\r\nDIVERGE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nJOG NEAR OR OVER CUBA...WHILE GFDL AND HWRF HEAD NORTHWARD.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS NUDGED TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS/SPECIAL ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH NOEL HAS NOTABLY STRENGTHENED TODAY...IT IS NOT CLEAR\r\nHOW MUCH MORE INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR.  THE AMOUNT OF\r\nINTERACTION WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS IS STILL RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES\r\nSTRENGTHENING SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOSTLY OVER WATER IF THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST VERIFIES.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION\r\nTHAT NOEL COULD BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO PASSING OVER CUBA. \r\nTHEREAFTER...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED\r\nBY THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nPLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS\r\nNOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE\r\nTHE WORD KNOLL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 16.8N  71.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N  72.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.1N  74.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.2N  75.0W    60 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.4N  75.8W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 26.0N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 29.0N  73.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-10-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007\r\n \r\nNOEL HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nALTHOUGH IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN\r\nCLUSTERS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  SOME OF\r\nTHIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPREADING OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS LIKELY\r\nGENERATING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THAT ISLAND.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT BASED ON THE\r\nEARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50\r\nKT.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE NOEL\r\nAROUND 0600 UTC TO GIVE A NEW ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND POSITION\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO FIX THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BASED\r\nSOLELY ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  UTILIZING POSITION\r\nESTIMATES FROM EARLIER SSM/I AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4.   NOEL IS APPARENTLY\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  BOTH OF THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THIS STEERING PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE NOEL TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nBASICALLY CLUSTERING INTO TWO POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS.  THE GFS AND THE\r\nECMWF SUGGEST A WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING ON A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE GFS SOLUTION LOOKS\r\nQUESTIONABLE SINCE IT SPLITS NOEL INTO TWO LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMA WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND DEVELOPS A THIRD CENTER\r\nFARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...GFDN...HWRF...U.K.\r\nMET AND NOGAPS TRACKS.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO OUR PREVIOUS NHC\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN IMPARTING SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING\r\nON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WHICH IS INHIBITING AN INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS\r\nLOW WILL SOON FILL...CREATING AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS HOW MUCH THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA\r\nWILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL.  BY DAYS 3-5...INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND\r\nBY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 17.1N  72.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.3N  73.2W    50 KT...INLAND OVER HAITI\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.7N  74.5W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 21.0N  75.7W    55 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 22.4N  76.1W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 25.0N  76.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 28.0N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 31.0N  72.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-10-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION AT 850 MB...BUT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI.  THE DROPSONDE\r\nDATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND IS NOW LIKELY AROUND 1002 MB.  THERE WAS AN SFMR\r\nREPORT OF 42 KT...ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND ON THIS\r\nBASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/5.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF NOEL\r\nIS INFLUENCING THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nFOLLOWING THE CONVECTION.  THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC...THE TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE RIDGE IS\r\nTHEN FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD WITH\r\nTHE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN NOEL NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nTHE ECMWF AND UKMET...WHICH RUN A WEAK LOW ALONG OR SOUTH OF\r\nCUBA...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nNORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL...WHICH IS NOT WELL-DEFINED\r\nTO BEGIN WITH...WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN OF HAITI FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE PASSAGE...THE\r\nNEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DIMINISH AND ALL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES RESTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF. BY DAYS 4-5...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INTERRUPT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS...AND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT INTERACTS WITH\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 18.0N  72.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.4N  72.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 21.1N  74.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 22.2N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 23.0N  75.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  76.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 32.0N  70.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-10-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007\r\n \r\nNOEL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX\r\nTERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EMERGED NORTH\r\nOF THE ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nHAITI.  UNTIL THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATES\r\nTHE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOCATION...FORWARD MOTION...AND EVEN\r\nTHE EXISTENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAIN RATHER UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nOUR BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\n335/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A SURFACE LOW TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED SOMEWHERE OVER THE\r\nBAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE\r\nVERTICAL EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON\r\nNOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE THAT WILL ACCELERATE QUICKLY NORTHWARD\r\nAND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE ECMWF THAT DEPICTS\r\nA WEAK SURFACE LOW HANGING OUT NEAR CUBA FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\nTHE REMAINING MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AND FORECAST A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. SOME OF THOSE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...FORECAST\r\nLITTLE MOTION ON DAYS 3-5...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACCELERATION IN THAT TIME FRAME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A WEAKENING AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT SLOWLY\r\nRECURVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AFTER 48 HOURS...IN\r\nRESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...SIMILAR TO THE HWRF\r\nSOLUTION AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nASSUMING THE CYCLONE REGAINS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION AFTER BEING\r\nDISRUPTED OVER HISPANIOLA...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nPROVIDE NOEL WITH AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDRAMATICALLY INCREASE AND INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD COMPARED\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE...AND\r\nBELOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 19.9N  73.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 21.2N  73.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 22.4N  74.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 23.4N  75.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  76.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 26.0N  76.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 28.0N  75.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 30.0N  72.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-10-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF HAITI\r\nEARLIER TODAY...HAS SINCE BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT\r\n325/13...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WAS TOO CLOSE TO LAND FOR THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO FLY DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CENTER...BUT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE PRESSURE ESTIMATES ARE CONSISTENT\r\nWITH A POSITION ESTIMATED FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY.  MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 37 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE...WHILE SFMR ESTIMATES PEAKED A LITTLE HIGHER NEAR 50 KT. \r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES.  THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND THE\r\nSTORM HAS A VERY SPRAWLING APPEARANCE...BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS\r\nEXTEND WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY\r\nRAINS TO HISPANIOLA.\r\n\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON THE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND HAVE\r\nGENERALLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT. DURING THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS...THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER BUT HAS COME INTO\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS...WHILE THE GFS PROVIDES THE\r\nWESTERNMOST TRACK.  DURING THIS PERIOD NOEL SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW SOON THIS TURN\r\nWILL MATERIALIZE AND HOW FAST NOEL WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...PERHAPS\r\nDUE TO VARIATIONS IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH IS A WESTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ARE\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL\r\nWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES...WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED THEREAFTER\r\nAS NOEL HEADS NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. \r\nTHIS FORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 20.9N  74.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 22.4N  75.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 23.7N  77.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 24.7N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 25.8N  79.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.5N  77.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 35.0N  68.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-10-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007\r\n\r\nSO FAR...NOEL HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND THE SYSTEM STILL HAS A BROAD AND SPRAWLING\r\nAPPEARANCE.  SOME CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING\r\nNEAR THE CENTER BUT THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERALLY\r\nOCCURRING FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA ALSO\r\nINDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS NOT YET VERY WELL ORGANIZED. \r\nCIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BUT LIMITED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES.   \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGES BUT A 1002 MB SHIP\r\nOR BUOY OBSERVATION NEAR 0000 UTC WAS LIKELY NOT FAR FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  THE HOLGUIN RADAR WAS ALSO USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION.  INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/11.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TURN NOEL\r\nNORTHWARD.  THEREAFTER A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN THE FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK PREDICTION MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...\r\nGFDN...AND NOGAPS...HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE\r\nAROUND THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FLORIDA COAST.\r\nACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 36 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...\r\nALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE NEARBY PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY\r\nSTILL HAVING A SLIGHT INHIBITING EFFECT ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF\r\nNOEL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER LOW IS IN THE\r\nPROCESS OF DISSIPATING.  THEREFORE SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nLIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG AND THIS\r\nSHOULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION.  BY DAY 4 OR SOONER NOEL WILL BE\r\nEMBEDDED IN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD BE\r\nTRANSFORMED INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nAFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE MIAMI WFO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS\r\nNOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.  HIGH WIND\r\nWATCHES ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM\r\nBEACH COUNTIES DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF AN INCREASING PRESSURE\r\nGRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH\r\nBUILDING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE APPROACH OF NOEL. \r\nHOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nSOUTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY TUESDAY....DEPENDING ON THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND WIND RADII OF THE TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 21.2N  75.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 22.2N  76.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 23.3N  77.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 24.4N  78.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.5N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  75.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 38.0N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-10-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA INDICATE THAT\r\nCENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. THE CUBAN\r\nWEATHER STATION 78365...PUNTA LUCRECIA... REPORTED A WIND SHIFT AND\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1000 MB AS THE CENTER MOVED NEARBY.  THE\r\nRADAR ALSO SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE U.S AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 52\r\nKNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KNOTS. NOEL HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN\r\nA LITTLE BIT MORE AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM CUBA AND BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE INTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS\r\nWHICH IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nCUBAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280\r\nDEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER\r\nTODAY AND THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THEREAFTER...NOEL SHOULD\r\nRECURVE OR MOVE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AWAY FROM\r\nTHE UNITED STATES. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS NOEL SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAWAY FROM FLORIDA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  HOWEVER...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH MAY STILL BE REQUIRED FOR SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TODAY\r\nIF NOEL MOVES FATHER WESTWARD THAN ANTICIPATED AND THE WINDS\r\nEXPAND.\r\n\r\nTHE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING SOUTHEAST FLORIDA ARE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE\r\nNOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS\r\nFROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 21.3N  76.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 22.2N  77.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 23.3N  78.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 24.5N  78.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  77.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 31.0N  72.4W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 37.0N  66.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 45.0N  58.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-10-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR IMAGERY FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA...AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS CLEARLY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL\r\nREMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA.  PLENTY OF RAIN BANDS...\r\nHOWEVER...STILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...CONTINUING THE HEAVY RAINS FOR HISPANIOLA THAT HAVE\r\nALSO SPREAD INTO THE BAHAMAS.  MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS IS 40 KT...WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OCCURRING IN THE BANDS\r\nBETWEEN EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS.  THE NEXT AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT SCHEDULED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT SINCE\r\nTHE CENTER OF NOEL WILL LIKELY SPEND THE DAY OVER LAND...AS THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DO NOT TYPICALLY MAKE CENTER FIXES OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 270\r\nDEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. \r\nAS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES...NOEL SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OFF OF CUBA AND\r\nEVENTUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE IS\r\nNOT AGREED UPON BY THE VARIOUS MODELS...BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nDOES NOT BRING NOEL BACK OVER WATER UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING...AND\r\nNEITHER WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE REMAINDER OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS ALONG THE SAME PATH AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS\r\nSLOWER DURING THE FIRST THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST OF AN EXTENDED STAY OVER CUBA REQUIRES A LOWER\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A\r\nLITTLE MORE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER LAND.  ONCE IT EMERGES OVER\r\nWATER AGAIN...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES THE\r\nBAHAMAS...BUT PROBABLY NOT AS MUCH AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nSINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL TAKE TIME TO BECOME REESTABLISHED.  THE\r\nCHANCES OF NOEL BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR LESS NOW...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST THIS TO OCCUR.  NOTABLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...HOWEVER...ONCE NOEL BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE\r\nNOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS\r\nFROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 21.1N  77.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 21.4N  78.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 22.5N  78.7W    40 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 24.0N  78.6W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 26.2N  77.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 32.5N  71.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 39.0N  64.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 46.5N  58.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-10-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF NOEL IS STILL CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...HAVING SPENT THE DAY MOVING ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD...\r\nALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KNOTS. \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION\r\nDERIVED FROM THE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 35 KT...BASED IN PART ON A\r\nSURFACE WIND OBSERVATION OF 35 KT FROM A DROPSONDE...WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET\r\nTHAT HAS BEGUN ITS SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...NOEL IS STILL EXPECTED\r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS\r\nTHE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE\r\nOF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM.  WHILE THE VARIOUS\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR\r\nNOEL TO GAIN ANY LATITUDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALONG THE SAME PATH BUT JUST A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FROM 48 HOURS ON...THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN TAKING NOEL QUICKLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES\r\nBACK OVER WATER NORTH OF CUBA.  AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IN\r\nCALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHILE NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 72\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT THAT NOEL ITSELF WILL\r\nNOT LAST BEYOND ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND INSTEAD CALL FOR NOEL TO BE\r\nABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFARTHER NORTH.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT\r\nNOEL WILL REMAIN INTACT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE\r\nNOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS\r\nFROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 21.0N  78.0W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 21.6N  78.8W    35 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 22.6N  79.2W    35 KT...NEAR N COAST OF CUBA\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.1N  78.8W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 26.8N  77.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 34.0N  70.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 48.5N  56.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-10-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND THE CAMAGUEY RADAR INDICATE THE\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT FAR FROM THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY.  INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nAND LIGHTNING DATA SHOW THAT INTENSE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NOT\r\nFAR EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nREMAINED OVER LAND IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED AND\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. \r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT NOEL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED.  INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/4.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN\r\nMADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST\r\nOF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD AS A SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THIS STEERING FLOW EVOLUTION\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST...WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AS NOEL GETS\r\nCAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS\r\nDIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...CONU.\r\n\r\nONCE THE CENTER OF NOEL EMERGES INTO THE ATLANTIC...THERE WILL BE A\r\nSHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN. \r\nHOWEVER...IN 36-48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 OR 40 KT.  THIS SHOULD TERMINATE ANY\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM...AT LEAST AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS TRANSFORM NOEL INTO A\r\nVIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH OVER\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM NWS\r\nLOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 21.4N  78.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 22.1N  78.8W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.3N  78.8W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 25.1N  78.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 27.6N  76.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 34.5N  69.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 42.0N  62.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 51.0N  55.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-10-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007\r\n \r\nSURFACE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF NOEL IS\r\nAPPROACHING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA NEAR CAYO COCO.  RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.  A SURFACE OBSERVATION AT CAYO COCO\r\nSUGGESTS THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1000 MB...AND AN EARLIER\r\nASCAT OVERPASS SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT.\r\n\r\nNOEL HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE 12 HR\r\nMOTION IS 330/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY EVEN BE MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS AN EARLY START OF THE\r\nFORECAST NORTHWARD TURN...OR IF IT IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW FOUR POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR NOEL BASED ON\r\nINTERACTIONS WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE FIRST...SUPPORTED BY THE NOGAPS...THE GFDL...\r\nAND THE HWRF...IS FOR NOEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND\r\nBECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE SECOND...SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO\r\nFORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WHICH ABSORBS NOEL.  THE THIRD...\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE UKMET...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO FORM OFF\r\nTHE FLORIDA COAST WITH IT AND NOEL MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN TANDEM. \r\nTHE FOURTH...SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...IS FOR AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nTO FORM OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAKENING NOEL BEING DRIVEN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE FIRST SCENARIO...WITH NOEL\r\nRECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR AND THEN\r\nACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD OVERALL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE NOEL IS\r\nEXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MUCH OF IT\r\nDUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  AS NOEL MOVES OFF CUBA...\r\nTHERE WILL BE A 24 HR OR SO PERIOD OF DECREASED SHEAR THAT COULD\r\nALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.  AFTER THAT...INTENSIFICATION AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STOP AS NOEL ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND\r\nBEGINS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN FURTHER AFTER BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...WITH A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA\r\nARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH\r\nOVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  SEE STATEMENTS FROM\r\nNWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 22.1N  78.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 22.9N  78.7W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 23.9N  78.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  77.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  75.7W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 35.0N  69.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 44.0N  61.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 54.0N  53.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-10-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 AM EDT WED OCT 31 2007\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nAFTER MOVING OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 53 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HASN'T BEEN\r\nSAMPLED YET...AND SFMR DATA HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 45 KT.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.  THE CENTER IS DISPLACED\r\nABOUT 30-40 NM FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE ORGANIZATION HAS\r\nIMPROVED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nEXPECTED BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 36-48\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM RESTRENGTHENS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/7.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR NOEL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nOF NOEL...THEY ALL TAKE EITHER NOEL OR A NEW EXTRATROPICAL\r\nDEVELOPMENT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD.  GIVEN THE BETTER ASSOCIATION OF\r\nNOEL'S CIRCULATION WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED THIS\r\nMORNING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND PRESUMES THAT NOEL WILL BE THE PRIMARY\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL\r\nTRACKS FOR NOEL AND THE GFS TRACK FOR THE NEW EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG GUSTY WINDS THAT CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FLORIDA\r\nARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A STRONG HIGH\r\nOVER THE U.S. EAST COAST AND NOEL...BUT ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THIS DISTINCTION MAY\r\nBECOME LESS CLEAR AS NOEL APPROACHES...AND IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO\r\nTRANSITION TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE\r\nWARNING IS CALLED...WINDS NEAR THE LOW-END TROPICAL STORM/GALE\r\nTHRESHHOLD WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS ISSUED BY LOCAL\r\nNWS FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 22.7N  78.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 23.9N  78.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 25.1N  78.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  76.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  73.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  67.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 45.0N  60.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 55.0N  51.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-10-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF NOEL DRIFTED WESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND\r\nMIDDAY...BUT RECENTLY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...OR PERHAPS\r\nMAKING A SMALL CYCLONIC LOOP...JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH COAST OF\r\nCUBA. THE CENTER IS NOT AS WELL CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION AS\r\nIT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT\r\nTHE TWO WILL NOT COMPLETELY SEPARATE. INDEED...THERE WAS SOME\r\nEVIDENCE IN THE RECON DATA AROUND 18Z THAT A SECOND VORTICITY\r\nCENTER WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nIN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVANCING TOWARD THE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INDUCE A NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION\r\nOF NOEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A GFDL/HWRF/GFS\r\nBLEND...EXCEPT FOR BEING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR\r\nDATA.  THERE COULD BE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BEGINS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nNOEL WILL BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT HAVE\r\nDECREASED BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD OF NOEL HAS\r\nEXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW\r\nBRINGS TROPICAL STORM WINDS TO NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.\r\nSINCE ANY SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN WINDS AT THE COAST WOULD BE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS\r\nBEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME. WHILE A WATCH IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nA LONGER LEAD TIME THAN A WARNING...IT ALSO CONVEYS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY...AS OPPOSED TO THE EXPECTATION...OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS.  BECAUSE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII ARE\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...A WATCH IS MORE APPROPRIATE THAN A\r\nWARNING.  THE NEED FOR A WARNING WILL BE REASSESSED THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 22.6N  78.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  79.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.3N  78.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  76.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.5N  72.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 39.0N  66.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 49.0N  57.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 60.0N  47.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-11-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL HAS\r\nDRAMATICALLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS LARGE AREA OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THAN EARLIER TODAY...THE DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT NOEL HAS NOT\r\nSTRENGTHENED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KT...BASED\r\nON EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY OCCURRING\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS STILL NOT VERY\r\nDISRUPTED BY THE INCOMING SHEAR AND GIVEN THE INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION...NOEL STILL HAS THE CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nA STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\nAFTER A LONG TIME OVER CUBA OR NEARBY...NOEL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. NOEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nBUT THE PREVAILING WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE BEGINNING TO CHANGE\r\nAND SOON...NOEL WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN\r\nWILL FORCE NOEL TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...NOEL WILL BE AFFECTING THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSINCE NOEL IS ALREADY MOVING NORTHWARD AND IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM FLORIDA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OFFSHORE ...THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING IS NOT REQUIRED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY UNEXPECTED INCREASE\r\nIN THE WIND RADII WEST OF THE CYCLONE OR A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK COULD PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING.\r\n \r\nBOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE. IN FACT...\r\nALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STRENGTHENING\r\nNOEL A LITTLE...TURNING IT NORTHEASTWARD...AND MAKING IT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 23.2N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 24.3N  78.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 26.5N  77.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  74.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 33.5N  70.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 42.0N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 50.0N  53.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 55.0N  42.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-11-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007\r\n \r\nNOEL PRODUCED A MAJOR BURST OF CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER\r\nTHIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -90C AT TIMES. \r\nHOWEVER...THE BURST HAS ENDED...WITH RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...\r\nNASSAU...AND CAMAGUEY CURRENTLY SHOWING LITTLE PRECIPITATION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  MAJOR COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE DISRUPTED THE FLOW\r\nOF DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nMONITORING NOEL.  HOWEVER...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 992 MB AT 05Z.  BASED ON THAT AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 000/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nAND MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nMOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EASTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS NOW AGREE THAT NOEL WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH...\r\nMOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO AND THEN ACCELERATING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HR...AND THEN IS SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER IN RESPONSE TO A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MOTION DURING THE\r\nFIRST 12 HR COULD BE ERRATIC DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER\r\nCAUSED BY CONVECTIVE BURSTS.\r\n\r\nNOEL HAS AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...ESPECIALLY IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...RAWINSONDE DATA FROM KEY WEST\r\nAND MIAMI SHOW THAT THE OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO ABOVE 200 MB...WITH\r\n20-30 KT OF WESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN 200-400 MB UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW AND CAUSING SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE BY 24\r\nHR...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR NOEL TO INTENSIFY AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NOEL TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN TO 60 KT IN 12 HR IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE\r\nBURST SIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT JUST FINISHED.  AFTER THAT...\r\nINCREASING SHEAR SHOULD STOP DEVELOPMENT.  ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST NOEL TO BECOME A LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC STARING IN 36-48 HR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN\r\nBOTH THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FOUND A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ABOUT\r\n100-115 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT....WITH\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED BY DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE MIAMI WSR-88D\r\nAND A 37 KT SHIP REPORT AT 06Z.  THESE WINDS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO\r\nTHE FLORIDA COAST THAT ANY DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WOULD BRING THEM ON TO THE FLORIDA COAST.  THUS...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME FOR THE IMMEDIATE\r\nCOASTAL AREA OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 23.7N  78.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N  78.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 27.2N  76.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 30.5N  73.4W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  70.1W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 43.5N  63.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 53.0N  52.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 57.5N  42.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-11-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 AM EDT THU NOV 01 2007\r\n \r\nDATA PHONED IN FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINVESTIGATING NOEL INCLUDE PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND\r\nSFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 51 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT.  THE CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING\r\nABOUT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS...BUT OVERALL INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST HAS BEGUN.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 020/8.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ADVANCING TOWARD NOEL FROM THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NOEL\r\nNORTHNORTHEASTWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nHEADING BUT LESS SO ON THE SPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS\r\nA GFS/GFDL/HWRF BLEND.\r\n\r\nWITH THE RECENT JUMP OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...THERE\r\nIS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12-18\r\nHOURS...BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE.  HOWEVER...\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO EDGE AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...IT SHOULD SOON BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 24.5N  77.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 25.8N  76.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 28.4N  74.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 32.0N  72.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  69.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 46.0N  61.0W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 56.5N  50.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Noel","Adv":21,"Date":"2007-11-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NOEL REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB OF 66 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND PEAK\r\nSFMR WINDS OF 53 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS BECOMING DISTORTED AND ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nFLORIDA STRAITS AND BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH NOEL...SIGNALING THE\r\nSTART OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...SO THERE IS ONLY A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR NOEL\r\nTO BECOME A CANE. HOWEVER...AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NOEL WILL BECOME AN EXTREMELY LARGE\r\nAND POWERFUL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nNOEL IS ACCELERATING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12. A SECOND\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CYCLONE AND CUT OFF\r\nOVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST PATTERN\r\nRESULTS IN A TRACK FOR NOEL A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST...AND WITH THE FORECAST EXPANSION OF THE WIND RADII...IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL WIND EVENT FROM\r\nTHE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS NORTHWARD. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS\r\nFROM YOUR NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY\r\nBE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 25.5N  77.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 27.6N  75.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 30.7N  73.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  71.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 39.0N  68.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 50.5N  60.5W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 60.0N  52.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Noel","Adv":22,"Date":"2007-11-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 PM EDT THU NOV 01 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A LARGE AND ROUND VERY STRONG CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENTERED THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL AND MEASURED A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT DROP FROM\r\nEARLIER FLIGHTS. WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL HAVE INCREASED TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER AND PEAKED AT 81 KNOTS...AND THE MAXIMUM MEASURED SFMR\r\nSURFACE WINDS WERE 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD TO 70 KNOTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT THE\r\nINCREASE IN THE WINDS...AND A 0022 UTC SSM/IS PASS DEPICTED AN EYE\r\nFEATURE.  NOEL COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO BUT THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nCIRCULATION AND A COOLER OCEAN.  IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS VERY\r\nDIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE EXACT TIMING OF THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE\r\nTRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT IT COULD BE DELAYED\r\nSINCE SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PROCESS MAY OCCUR A\r\nLITTLE BIT LATER. NEVERTHELESS NOEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A LARGE\r\nAND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nNOEL IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG AND ACCELERATING\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 17\r\nKNOTS. FROM THIS POINT ON...THE CYCLONE CAN ONLY ACCELERATE AND\r\nCONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED\r\nBY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT A\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  DETAILS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES PRIMARILY NOVA SCOTIA ARE INCLUDED IN\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT\r\nCANADA.\r\n\r\nNOTE: LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND WINDS ARE EXPANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 27.3N  76.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  74.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 33.0N  72.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 37.5N  69.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 42.5N  66.5W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 53.0N  58.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 62.5N  50.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Noel","Adv":23,"Date":"2007-11-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007\r\n \r\nAT ABOUT 05Z...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 70 KT JUST WEST OF THE CENTER BY\r\nDROPSONDE AND THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...AND 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 89 KT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/16.  NOEL IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A STRONG\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS THIS PATTERN TO CAUSE THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE WITH\r\nSOME ACCELERATION...BRINGING NOEL NEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT\r\n48 HR.  A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THEREAFTER\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES AT VERY HIGH LATITUDES.\r\n \r\nNOEL IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN\r\n26C...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM.  THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT STRENGTHEN ANY MORE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nNOEL SHOULD BEGIN LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATER TODAY AND\r\nCOMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HR.  IT IS FORECAST TO\r\nMAINTAIN HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS DURING THE TRANSITION...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 24-48 HR IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST NOEL TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HR AND DISSIPATE BY 120 HR...AND\r\nTHIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER\r\nIN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT.  THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO\r\nBOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 28.4N  75.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 31.2N  73.6W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 35.4N  71.2W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 40.0N  68.7W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 44.9N  65.0W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 56.0N  56.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 64.5N  50.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Noel","Adv":24,"Date":"2007-11-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT...BASED ON AN SFMR REPORT OF 69\r\nKT ABOUT 45 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF\r\nNOEL IS DETERIORATING RAPIDLY...HOWEVER...WITH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nEVAPORATING OVER THE CENTER.  THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AT 12Z STILL\r\nSHOWED A DISTINCT WARM CORE AT 700 MB...AND CO-LOCATED SURFACE AND\r\n700 MB CENTERS...SO NOEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  IF\r\nTHE CORE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECAY AT ITS PRESENT RATE...NOEL\r\nWILL LIKELY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS\r\nEVENING.  WHILE NOEL MIGHT WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AS THE CORE DECAYS\r\nOVER 26C WATERS...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15...WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION.  NOEL REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A STRONG SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.   AS THIS TROUGH DIGS IN\r\nBEHIND NOEL...A RETURN TO THE PREVIOUS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING\r\nIS EXPECTED.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 WERE USED TO EXPAND THE 50\r\nKT WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 29.2N  73.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 37.1N  69.7W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 41.8N  66.9W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 47.5N  62.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 58.0N  54.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 67.0N  47.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Noel","Adv":25,"Date":"2007-11-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL162007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007\r\n500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007\r\n \r\nNOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO\r\nINDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.  SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION\r\nHAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY\r\nNOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE\r\nSPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS\r\nBEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL.  THUS THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST NOEL ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 040/17.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE\r\nSMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER.\r\n \r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND\r\nAREAS.  THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 31.4N  72.4W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  71.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 39.4N  69.3W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 44.7N  65.7W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 50.6N  61.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 61.0N  52.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 68.0N  46.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-12-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n1100 PM EDT MON DEC 10 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND\r\nPUERTO RICO HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED...THOUGH BROAD...SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOT FAR FROM THE CENTER.  DUE\r\nTO THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS...IT IS BEING DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  NOAA BUOY\r\n41043 NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS TWICE REPORTED 1-MIN AVERAGE WINDS OF\r\n33 KT AT AN ELEVATION OF 5 METERS...WHICH SUGGESTS TROPICAL-STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AT THE STANDARD SURFACE ELEVATION OF 10\r\nMETERS.  BASED ON ALL THIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL\r\nSTORM OLGA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nSUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  OLGA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nA STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...\r\nAND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND STEER OLGA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nIS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nOLGA CURRENTLY HAS GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...\r\nWITH OUTFLOW AND CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nSUPPRESSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...THIS\r\nPATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES\r\nTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON TUESDAY.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LIKELY\r\nDISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION BY PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA...SHOULD\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST OLGA TO WEAKEN TO\r\nAN INVERTED TROUGH BY 36-48 HR... WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS\r\nDISSIPATION IN 60 HR.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR OLGA TO SURVIVE FOR 48 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING.\r\n\r\nAFTER COORDINATION WITH THE WFO SAN JUAN...IT WAS DECIDED THAT\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS WERE NOT NEEDED FOR PUERTO RICO SINCE THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OVER WATER WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 18.5N  65.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.5N  67.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 18.4N  70.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N  73.8W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.8N  76.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-12-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n400 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2007\r\n \r\nWSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REVEALS THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF OLGA HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THAT\r\nISLAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AT A WESTWARD HEADING OF 270\r\nDEGREES AT ABOUT 15 KT.  OLGA SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN A GRADUAL\r\nDECLINE...GIVEN A SLIGHT THINNING OF THE RAIN SHIELD IN THE RADAR\r\nIMAGERY...WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...AND A\r\nDECREASE IN LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 40 KT...HOWEVER...BASED ON THE SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS OF ABOUT 40 KT FROM A FEW SHIPS AND NOAA BUOY\r\n41043.  THIS ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nFROM A FORTUITOUS ASCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0206Z.  FOR NOW WE WILL\r\nRETAIN THE SUBTROPICAL DESIGNATION FOR OLGA SINCE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN ELONGATING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED\r\nABOVE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE\r\nWEAKENING...AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE LATER\r\nTODAY...SO OLGA COULD SOON MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...SINCE A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY STEER OLGA ON\r\nA CONTINUED WESTWARD PATH OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE NORTHERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA.  THE EXACT PATH OF THE CENTER ITSELF IS OF\r\nRELATIVELY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THIS CASE...SINCE MOST OF THE\r\nHEAVY RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. \r\nDUE TO OLGA'S DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO REACHING HISPANIOLA APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM. \r\nWEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS OLGA MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR SHOULD PROHIBIT\r\nRESTRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IF\r\nOLGA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SURVIVES THE NEXT THREE DAYS...THE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 18.5N  67.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N  69.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N  72.8W    30 KT...NEAR COAST OF HAITI\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.5N  76.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.5N  79.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N  83.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-12-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n1000 AM EST TUE DEC 11 2007\r\n \r\nRECENT BUOY...QUIKSCAT...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT OLGA'S PEAK\r\nWINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT...AND EXTEND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE CENTER THAN\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATED.  THE STRUCTURE OF OLGA...WITH ITS STRONGEST\r\nWINDS LOCATED STILL 100-200 NMI FROM CENTER...CONTINUES TO BE\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THAT OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS\r\nMOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP OLGA ON A BASIC\r\nWESTWARD PATH NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF OLGA WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER...WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED...WILL BE SLOW TO\r\nDIMINISH.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY\r\nSTRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OR SO...AND\r\nWHEN THIS HAPPENS OLGA SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH IS\r\nALREADY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO.\r\nTHESE RAINS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHERE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO LIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 18.1N  68.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.0N  70.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.1N  74.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.2N  77.4W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.2N  80.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N  85.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-12-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n400 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER MAY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...BUT A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE AREA SHORTLY...AND I WOULD\r\nPREFER TO WAIT FOR THEIR REPORTS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE ESTIMATED\r\nINTENSITY.  GRAND TURK ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF\r\n31 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE ASCAT DATA ALSO\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DECREASING.  IF\r\nTHIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE AIRCRAFT...OLGA COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF OLGA MADE LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JUST TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF PUNTA CANA AROUND 18Z.  THE MOTION OF THE CENTER HAS\r\nBEEN ERRATIC...BUT OVERALL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11.  THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...WHICH CALLS FOR OLGA\r\nTO BE STEERED BASICALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AFTER 48 HOURS...OLGA\r\nWILL BE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY\r\nTO BE LITTLE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BY THEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO\r\nINCREASE OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nWEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE.  THIS...COUPLED WITH THE\r\nINTERACTION OF THE CENTER WITH HISPANIOLA...SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nDECAY OF THE SYSTEM.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO\r\nPERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE DECAYING CYCLONE...HOWEVER...AND WINDS\r\nTHERE WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH IS\r\nALREADY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO.\r\nTHESE RAINS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...WHERE\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO LIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 18.5N  68.8W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N  71.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.6N  74.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.9N  77.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 19.2N  80.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 19.5N  83.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-12-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n1000 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION BECAME MORE\r\nTYPICAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE DEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE CLOSER TO THE CENTER. PEAK WINDS\r\nMEASURED BY THE PLANE REACHED 55 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND 54\r\nKNOTS BY SFMR. THE PROXIMITY OF THE WINDS TO THE CENTER AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTED THAT OLGA MADE THE TRANSITION\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT MEASURE DATA\r\nFROM OLGA'S CENTER BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAD ALREADY MOVED INLAND\r\nPRIOR TO A POSSIBLE PENETRATION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS BUT MOST LIKELY...\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON IF IT HAS NOT STARTED ALREADY DUE\r\nTO OLGA'S INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. EVEN\r\nLARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANES RARELY SURVIVE IT.\r\n \r\nOLGA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KNOTS AROUND A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AS\r\nINDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AND OLGA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL DISSIPATION. IT\r\nWOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR OLGA TO RECOVER FROM THE EFFECTS OF\r\nLAND AND EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR\r\nALONG ITS PATH. HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT BOTH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF KEEP OLGA AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH FIVE DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND\r\nHISPANIOLA. THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA\r\nWHICH IS ALREADY WET FROM NOEL.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 19.0N  70.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N  76.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N  78.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N  80.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N  83.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-12-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n400 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007\r\n \r\nOLGA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING ITS CROSSING OF HISPANIOLA. \r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...\r\nAND THE CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF\r\nHISPANIOLA ARE RELATIVELY WEAK.  THERE ARE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM NEAR THE CENTER OR FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION....SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  THIS MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16.  OLGA IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FLORIDA...AND\r\nTHE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT\r\nMOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAYS 4-5.  THIS PATTERN\r\nEVOLUTION HAS CAUSED THE TRACK GUIDANCE TO SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS\r\nAFTER OLGA MOVES WESTWARD FOR 24-48 HR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nOLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO TURN NORTHWARD AND RECURVE INTO THE\r\nCOLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST OLGA TO TURN SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE GULF\r\nOF HONDURAS.  THIS FORECAST MAY BE DUE TO THOSE MODELS KEEPING MORE\r\nRIDGING WEST OF OLGA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FORECASTING A\r\nSTRONG CYCLONE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...\r\nBUT WILL NOT YET CALL FOR RECURVATURE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...\r\nHWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH THAT HAS\r\nSO FAR PROTECTED OLGA FROM SHEAR WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HR\r\nAS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nSTRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...CALLING FOR OLGA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HR AND\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF FORECAST OLGA TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHTER WIND SHEAR IN\r\nTHE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND IN CONSEQUENCE BOTH MODELS FORECAST IT\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE.  IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...SO THE CHANCES\r\nOF OLGA BEING A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT AREA APPEAR\r\nRATHER LOW AT THE MOMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO AND \r\nHISPANIOLA.  THESE RAINS SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 19.2N  72.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 19.4N  74.9W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.6N  77.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.8N  79.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 20.0N  81.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 20.5N  84.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olga","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-12-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n1000 AM EST WED DEC 12 2007\r\n \r\nOLGA LACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BASED\r\nON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROBABLY ALSO LACKS A CLOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...WE WILL HANG ON TO OLGA FOR A FEW MORE\r\nHOURS JUST IN CASE DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS OR WEST WINDS BECOME\r\nEVIDENT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 10Z...AS WELL AS SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THERE REMAINS A BAND OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nJUST EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.  \r\n\r\nTHE VORTICITY CENTER HAS ACCELERATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 270/20.  OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO.  WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION THERE IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN HISPANIOLA.  SOME OF\r\nTHESE RAINS SHOULD SPREAD OVER EASTERN CUBA TODAY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 19.1N  75.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.2N  77.6W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N  80.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  82.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 21.5N  86.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-12-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z DID NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  OLGA HAS\r\nBEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 06Z...AND HAS BEEN\r\nUNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE\r\nOF HOURS...AND SO WE'LL HANG ON TO IT...AGAIN...JUST A LITTLE BIT\r\nLONGER.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OLGA IS VERY DRY...AND THE\r\nLONG-ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BECOMING APPARENT OVER THE\r\nCENTER.  THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND\r\nIF OLGA HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN AN APPROACHING\r\nFRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 18.9N  76.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.1N  79.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.4N  82.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.9N  84.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 20.4N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 22.0N  87.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olga","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-12-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL172007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172007\r\n1000 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN...I HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO TERMINATE ANOTHER TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THIS SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM PILON CUBA\r\nSHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED.\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL ESTABLISHED...BUT THERE HAS NOT\r\nBEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTENT CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO. THE CYCLONE IS INITIALIZED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUT\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON...PERHAPS AS WE SPEAK.\r\nTHERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT SOME CONVECTION REDEVELOPS\r\nINTERMITTENTLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE REMNANT LOW\r\nMOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nTOO STRONG TO ALLOW REINTENSIFICATION...FAMOUS LAST WORDS.  THE\r\nLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN 3\r\nDAYS OR SO OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON OLGA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 18.9N  77.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N  80.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N  82.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N  83.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 20.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-05-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT MAY 26 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTHWEST OF\r\nMANZANILLO MEXICO HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 25\r\nKT FROM SAB.  BASED ON ALL THIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/4.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AND COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nMEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 115W...\r\nWITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE COVERING THE REGION WEST OF\r\n115W.  THIS LEAVES THE DEPRESSION IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THE\r\nRIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GFDL...THE ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nUNDER THE RIDGE THROUGH 120 HR.  A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING FACTOR IS\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY THAT ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL FORM EAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS. \r\nSHOULD THIS OCCUR...THIS COULD CAUSE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E TO\r\nHAVE ERRATIC MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF DIFLUENT\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nOVER WARM WATER FOR 48-72 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH 60 KT IN 72\r\nHR...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL FORECASTS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER GRADUALLY COOLING\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 12.6N 110.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.4N 112.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 12.3N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 12.3N 114.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N 116.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 12.5N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-05-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS SENDING MIXED MESSAGES THIS MORNING.  AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0146 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE WIND\r\nSPEEDS JUST BELOW STORM STRENGTH.  A LITTLE LATER...AT 0338 UTC...\r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A CURVED BAND STRUCTURE AROUND THE\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...SINCE THESE MICROWAVE DATA...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DETERIORATING.  AN EARLIER\r\nIMPRESSIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN DRAMATICALLY\r\nWEAKENING.  THE CENTER...AS DERIVED FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES...NOW SEEMS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE REMAINING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  IT IS A LITTLE ODD THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE\r\nPREFERENTIALLY FORMING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION WHEN THE SHEAR IS COMING FROM THE SOUTHEAST...PERHAPS\r\nINDICATIVE OF THE GENERAL LACK OF ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME.  IN\r\nANY EVENT...SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nFOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE CENTER ON THE NORTHERN PART OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS...ANY INTENSIFICATION IS TEMPORARILY HALTED. \r\nHOWEVER WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING WITH ONLY MODEST SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE STRENGTHENING LATER ON AS\r\nA LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR\r\nAT LEAST 3 DAYS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  IN ADDITION...SSTS WILL\r\nREMAIN PLENTY WARM...SO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  THE ONLY\r\nOBVIOUS NEGATIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH\r\nSHOULD BE MINIMIZED IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD.\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE BEYOND THREE DAYS SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED DOWNWARD AT THAT TIME-FRAME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD...270/4. A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO HAS PASSED THE DEPRESSION AND LEFT\r\nIT IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CONDITIONS. RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEER IT SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION. THIS\r\nIS THE APPROXIMATE SOLUTION PRESENTED BY THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMODEL. HOWEVER... OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...\r\nSEEMINGLY STRUGGLING WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION. THE GFS... NOGAPS AND UKMET (TO SOME EXTENT)\r\nFORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM BEHIND THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME LARGER\r\nAND STRONGER RATHER QUICKLY... WHICH SLOWS THE MOTION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION. FOR NOW...GIVEN THE RELATIVE BENIGN APPEARANCE ON\r\nSATELLITE OF THE SECOND SYSTEM...A FASTER SOLUTION WILL BE FAVORED.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE\r\nBUT FASTER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 12.8N 111.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 12.8N 111.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.8N 112.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.8N 113.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 12.8N 114.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 12.8N 116.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 12.8N 118.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 12.8N 120.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-05-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES AT 0847 AND 1004 UTC PROVIDED GOOD CENTER\r\nFIXES...AND SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE MAIN...AND POORLY ORGANIZED...CONVECTIVE\r\nAREAS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND\r\n30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE WATERS BELOW\r\nARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE...THE THERMODYNAMICS OF\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT APPEAR TO BE INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT...WITH MUCH OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION FROM THE NORTHWEST.  BOTH\r\nSHIPS AND THE LGE-SHIPS MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THEIR\r\nEXPECTATIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS\r\nGRADUALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE INTO THE ITCZ AS IT DEVELOPS A NEW\r\nCYCLONE TO ITS EAST.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW CYCLOGENESIS SEEMS \r\nOVERDONE...THE MODEL MAY WELL BE CORRECT ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nPROSPECTS OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...FOR\r\nNOW...REMAINS CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/3.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PASSING TO\r\nITS NORTH.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A\r\nSLOW WESTWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHIS IS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE ECMWF AND THE ONE FOLLOWED BY\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE BAM MODELS ARE SIMILAR BUT SOMEWHAT\r\nFASTER.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE MORE IN\r\nPLACE...BLOCKING THE DEPRESSION AND KEEPING THE MOTION VERY SLOW. \r\nEVEN MORE EXTREME ARE THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/NOGAPS/GFDL...WHICH\r\nSHOW AN INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CYCLOGENESIS TO\r\nTHE EAST THAT RESULTS IN A SOUTHWARD AND THEN EASTWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY EVIDENCE OF SUCH\r\nCYCLOGENESIS AT THIS TIME...AND THIS LATTER SCENARIO IS CONSIDERED\r\nUNLIKELY. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 13.0N 111.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 13.1N 111.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 13.1N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 13.1N 113.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.0N 114.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 13.0N 116.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 13.0N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N 120.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-05-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH\r\nTODAY...AND PRESENTLY THERE IS NOT ENOUGH TO QUALIFY THE SYSTEM AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 12Z THIS MORNING\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 25 KT. INFLOW\r\nFROM THE SOUTH IS BEING CUT OFF BY THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nPREDICTORS IN THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY NEGATIVE. THE\r\nMODEL ITSELF NOW SHOWS ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT. IN VIEW OF THE SSTS\r\nAND THE RELATIVELY LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THE DEPRESSION...\r\nBUT IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. \r\n\r\nWITH THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS NOT RESPONDING\r\nTO THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND THE WESTWARD MOTION HAS\r\nSLOWED. THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/2. MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE LEFT AS THE DEPRESSION BUMPS UP AGAINST LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH\r\nPRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 30N/145W. THE 12Z ECMWF CONTINUES\r\nWITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...BUT WITH A WEAKENED SYSTEM THIS SEEMS\r\nLESS LIKELY THAN IT DID THIS MORNING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE UKMET\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 13.2N 111.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 13.3N 111.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 13.4N 112.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.5N 112.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 13.5N 113.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 13.5N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 13.3N 115.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 13.0N 116.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-05-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION STARTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER AT ABOUT 23Z...AND IT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN.\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME AS COLD AS -80C... FAVORING THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR.  THE CONVECTIVE COMEBACK CERTAINLY MEANS THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nSTILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT SINCE IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING\r\nMIGHTILY TODAY...IT IS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL\r\nSTRENGTHEN MUCH IN THE LONG TERM.  THE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS IN\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY CHANGE.  MEANWHILE THE SSTS AND WIND SHEAR WILL\r\nPROBABLY NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH\r\nJUST A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY BEYOND 36 HOURS...WHICH IS IN\r\nBETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGE SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOW WESTWARD OR 270/4...ALTHOUGH A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nCAUSING A RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE... HOWEVER...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 15N/125W AND WILL\r\nPROBABLY PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM MOVING TOO MUCH TOWARD THE WEST\r\nFOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY\r\nFOLLOWS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OF A SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO RESUME WHEN THE CYCLONE\r\nFINDS ITSELF SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 13.0N 111.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.9N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 12.8N 113.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 12.7N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 12.6N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 12.5N 116.2W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-05-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2007\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY\r\nLOOKS HEALTHIER THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE\r\nCENTER IS BETWEEN TWO CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION...A MORE VIABLE\r\nPOSITION THAN TWELVE HOURS AGO WHEN THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPOSED. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT...AND WITH THE\r\nREFRESHED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nINCREASED TO 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL\r\nWHETHER THE SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION IS INDICATIVE OF\r\nTHE LONGER-TERM POTENTIAL OF THE SYSTEM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS IS BEING COUNTERED\r\nBY LIMITED THERMODYNAMICS.  HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER\r\nTHAN SIX HOURS AGO.  THE GFDL EVEN FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BE\r\nNEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THREE DAYS.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nGUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE RAISED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL\r\nBELOW BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.  OVERALL...THIS HAS TO BE\r\nCONSIDERED A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 270/5...A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN BEFORE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALSO GENERALLY FASTER THAN\r\nEARLIER...DUE IN PART TO MOST MODELS SHOWING LESS INTERACTION WITH\r\nAN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  A RIDGE IS STILL FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE ORIENTATION OF\r\nTHE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS\r\nREASONABLE CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 13.1N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 13.1N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 13.0N 113.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 12.9N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 12.6N 116.6W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 12.5N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 12.5N 119.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 AM PDT MON MAY 28 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VIGOROUS BUT \r\nLIMITED IN EXTENT...CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  AN AQUA-1 PASS AT 0930Z SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS ELONGATED...WITH THE CENTER POSSIBLY MIGRATING TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...I WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 270/6...BUT A FEW MORE VISIBLE IMAGES SHOULD\r\nINDICATE WHETHER MY ADVISORY POSITION IS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 25\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE DEPRESSION IS DUE SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IT SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE.  THE GFS\r\nCONTINUES TO DEVELOP A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO...BUT THIS\r\nSCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE DISCOUNTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nWITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPMENT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MIXED. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SURROUNDING ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY\r\nSTABLE.  WITH THE STABILITY LIMITING THE CONVECTION...THERE HAS\r\nBEEN JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING\r\nORGANIZED.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS MORE VIGOROUS THAN\r\nIT WAS AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS\r\nARE FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.  IF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS INDEED REFORMING NEAR THE CONVECTION...THE\r\nDEPRESSION WOULD LIKELY BECOME A STORM EARLIER THAN INDICATED\r\nBELOW. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 13.0N 113.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N 113.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 13.0N 114.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 12.9N 115.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 12.7N 116.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 12.5N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 12.5N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2007\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS DIPPED A LITTLE SOUTH...SO HAS THE CONVECTION.  THERE IS A\r\nPARTLY-EXPOSED CLOUD SWIRL ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE...BUT THE\r\nTRAJECTORY OF THIS SWIRL SUGGESTS IT MAY NOT BE THE ONLY CENTER. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY\r\nINCREASE...AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  THE MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS JUST MISSED THE CYCLONE. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 30 KT...AND\r\nTHAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ...ALTHOUGH NEAR\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS MIGHT WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFDL...\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE ECMWF.\r\n\r\nOVER THE PAST 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN MORE\r\nPERSISTENT.  ALTHOUGH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD NOT SEEM\r\nTO FAVOR A GREAT DEAL OF INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER 28C WATER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO I DON'T SEE ANY\r\nREASON WHY THE DEPRESSION SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO REACH AND MAINTAIN\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.   \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 12.8N 113.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 12.7N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 12.6N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 12.5N 116.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 12.5N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 12.5N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 12.5N 120.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 12.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 PM PDT MON MAY 28 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BEEN FAIRLY STABLE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH A SPOT OF -80C CLOUD TOPS PERSISTING SOUTH OF THE\r\nESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE T2.5 OR 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  ON\r\nTHAT BASIS THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...THE\r\nFIRST OF THE 2007 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON.  DESPITE THE\r\nUPGRADE...THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-ORGANIZED...AND\r\nCONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK STILL DO NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN\r\nCALLS FOR ALVIN TO REACH 45 KT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...OVER SSTS NEAR 28C AND CONTINUING MODERATE EASTERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR...BUT IN A LESS THAN IDEAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nI CANNOT ACTUALLY SEE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT HAVE ATTEMPTED TO\r\nTRIANGULATE ITS LOCATION USING LOW CLOUD MOTIONS OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...AND USING CONTINUITY FROM AN EARLIER TRMM\r\nOVERPASS AT 1859Z.  BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR 245/5.  THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF ALVIN.  AS THIS RIDGE MIGRATES NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTOWARD MEXICO... ALVIN WILL PROBABLY TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND\r\nHEAD ALMOST DUE WESTWARD BUT SLOW DOWN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 12.6N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 12.4N 114.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 12.3N 115.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 12.2N 116.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 12.1N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 12.0N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 12.0N 120.2W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 12.0N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007\r\n \r\nALVIN DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING SOUTH OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THIS PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT\r\nCOUNTERINTUITIVE GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPACTING\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  IT MAY BE THAT CONVECTION IS SIMPLY FAVORING THE\r\nBETTER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH. REGARDLESS...ALVIN\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n35 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ATMOSPHERIC\r\nCONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE SO SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY.  THE ONLY FACTOR FAVORING\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS THE CYCLONE'S EXPECTED TRACK OVER 28C WATER\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC FORCING AND\r\nSHOWS ALVIN REACHING 45 KT DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nFOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CENTER OF ALVIN REMAINS ELUSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/5 IN LINE WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC STEERING WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nBE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  UNDER THIS REGIME...ALVIN SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ONE POTENTIAL CAVEAT IS\r\nTHE DISPLACEMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AS LONG AS THIS PATTERN PERSISTS...THE\r\nCENTER WILL BE PULLED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 12.5N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 12.3N 114.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 12.2N 115.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 12.2N 116.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 12.2N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 12.2N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 12.2N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 12.2N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT 12Z.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES ARE NOT CONCLUSIVE...BUT SUGGEST THE CENTER OF\r\nALVIN IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH\r\nEACH DAY HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT THAN THE DAY BEFORE.  GIVEN\r\nTHIS...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS MODERATE AND THE WATERS ARE\r\nWARM...SOME INTENSIFICATION WOULD SEEM TO BE IN ORDER.  NEITHER THE\r\nSHIPS NOR THE GFDL TAKE ALVIN HIGHER THAN A MID-RANGE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...PRESUMABLY DUE TO THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS.  THE CURRENT\r\nCONVECTIVE TRENDS...HOWEVER...MAY INDICATE THAT ALVIN IS BEGINNING\r\nTO CHIP AWAY AT ITS STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nALLOWS FOR JUST A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAN THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/3.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR ALVIN TO CONTINUE\r\nWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nTHE ECMWF HAS DONE A NICE JOB WITH ALVIN SO FAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 12.6N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N 114.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 12.4N 115.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 12.4N 116.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 12.5N 117.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 12.5N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 12.5N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 12.5N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ALVIN USING\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...HOWEVER A MICROWAVE PASS\r\nFROM SSMI-S HELPED TO RE-POSITION THE CENTER BACK TOWARD THE EAST A\r\nBIT.  AFTER A FLARE UP OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING... THE\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED AND DECREASED IN AREAL EXTENT DURING\r\nTHE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO.  AT 1338Z...A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A\r\nCOUPLE OF RELIABLE 35 KT VECTORS ONLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT...AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF 40 KT VECTORS.  BASED ON THE\r\nDETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.  DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR AND WARM\r\nWATERS...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO STILL BE TOO STABLE FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/2.  ALVIN IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF ALVIN TO MIGRATE TO THE EAST...ALLOWING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 12.6N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 12.6N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 12.6N 115.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 12.6N 116.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 12.6N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 12.5N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 12.3N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 12.0N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF ALVIN CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AIDED IN LOCATING THE CENTER.   \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ALVIN HAS BECOME RATHER POOR THIS\r\nEVENING WITH THE CYCLONE CONSISTING OF A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER \r\nOVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL ESTIMATE WILL\r\nBE KEPT AT 35 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF ALVIN APPEAR LESS THAN IDEAL\r\nFOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE CYCLONE'S MAIN INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR CONTINUES TO BE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE...IT IS TEMPTING TO BACK OFF ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO FORECAST A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND FOR NOW. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nALVIN IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE TO SHIFT EASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW ALVIN TO MOVE A LITTLE\r\nFASTER IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED...EXCEPT FOR A\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO A MORE NORTHERN INITIAL\r\nLOCATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND 12Z ECMWF\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 12.8N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 12.9N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.1N 115.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 13.2N 116.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.2N 117.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 13.0N 119.3W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 12.7N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 12.2N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH ALVIN HAS DECREASED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...NEW\r\nCELLS ARE STARTING TO DEVELOP. EVEN STILL...ALVIN LOOKS LESS\r\nORGANIZED AND MAY FINALLY BE SUCCUMBING TO THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT HAS PLAGUED THIS CYCLONE SINCE ITS INCEPTION.\r\nDVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nINDICATES THAT ALVIN HAS DROPPED BELOW STORM FORCE. THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THUS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE OVERALL\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AND\r\nALVIN'S EXPECTED TRACK WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS.  NONE OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND NEITHER DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WHILE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ALVIN REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST...DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS\r\nPOSSIBLE. \r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/4.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 13.0N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.1N 115.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 13.2N 115.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 13.2N 116.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 13.2N 117.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 13.0N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 12.5N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 11.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS FLARED NEAR ALVIN THIS MORNING...WITH THE CENTER ON\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A BAND. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE\r\nABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD\r\nAT 30 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOR THE\r\nNEAR TERM. THIS IS BASICALLY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SINCE ALVIN HAS\r\nBEEN PRETTY WEAK ITS ENTIRE LIFETIME IN ABOUT THE SAME ENVIRONMENT.\r\nHOWEVER THE GFS INDICATES THAT UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL DECREASE NEAR\r\nTHE DEPRESSION BY ABOUT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS...WHICH COULD LIMIT THESE\r\nPERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT ALVIN HAS BEEN PRODUCING FOR\r\nDAYS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GFDL/SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE. UPPER CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT\r\nIN THE LONG TERM...AND ALVIN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR\r\nDAYS OR SO...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nA PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES NEAR 0900 UTC SUGGEST THAT ALVIN HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK...GIVING\r\nA LONG-TERM MOTION OF 300/3. RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD MOTION IN A\r\nDAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...RIDGING IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS IS\r\nORIENTED FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. ALL GLOBAL MODELS\r\nRESPOND BY SENDING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST\r\nTRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY INITIALLY AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 13.4N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 13.6N 115.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 13.7N 116.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 13.7N 117.1W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 13.4N 118.1W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 12.8N 119.4W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 12.0N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 11.0N 122.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-05-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALVIN HAS BECOME\r\nDISTORTED. THE MAIN CENTER...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA...SEEMS\r\nTO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. DESPITE THE GRADED\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...A 1313 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED WINDS\r\nOF ABOUT 30 KT. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE FALLING...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND THE\r\nSHIPS/GFDL MODELS. IT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY WHY THIS SYSTEM HAS\r\nFAILED TO INTENSIFY...AND SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY GETTING\r\nLESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME...THERE IS NO GOOD REASON TO FORECAST\r\nANYTHING BUT SLOW WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/3.  A STOUT RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ALVIN SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD TURN SOON... FOLLOWED BY A\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO.  THERE IS\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS PATH...THOUGH THE UKMET KEEPS\r\nTHE SYSTEM VIRTUALLY STATIONARY AS ALVIN GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE\r\nLARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NUDGED SOUTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 13.4N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 13.5N 115.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 13.5N 116.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 13.4N 117.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 13.1N 118.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 12.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 11.7N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 10.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-05-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n \r\nLATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nBECAME FULLY EXPOSED WITH VIRTUALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING\r\nWITHIN THE CIRCULATION.  AT THAT TIME...ALVIN COULD ALMOST HARDLY\r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...JUST BEFORE 0000\r\nUTC A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nREMAIN 30 KT.  THEREFORE...ALVIN REMAINS A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nALVIN HAS CERTAINLY STRUGGLED IN ITS CURRENT ENVIRONMENT DURING THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND SINCE THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT\r\nFORECAST TO IMPROVE...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS KEEP ALVIN'S\r\nINTENSITY BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT ALVIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ENOUGH CONVECTION\r\nTO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3.  IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF ALVIN HAS BEGUN TO FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST \r\nIN A DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 13.2N 115.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 13.2N 115.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 13.2N 116.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 117.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 12.9N 118.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 12.4N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 11.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 10.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-05-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007\r\n \r\nTENACIOUS ALVIN CONTINUES TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY APPEARS TO\r\nDECREASE WITH EACH NEW ROUND.  INDEED...ALVIN IS BARELY HANGING ON\r\nTO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AND ANY FURTHER REDUCTION IN CONVECTION\r\nWOULD RESULT IN IT DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS GENEROUSLY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.  SINCE ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ALVIN SHOULD BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nALVIN APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 250/4.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTH WITH A COUPLE OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATING THAT ALVIN WILL TURN DUE SOUTH OR EVEN\r\nSOUTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.  WHILE THIS SOLUTION IS CERTAINLY\r\nPLAUSIBLE...IT WOULD REQUIRE THAT ALVIN BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE\r\nIMMEDIATELY.  GIVEN ALVIN'S PAST ABILITY TO CONTINUOUSLY GENERATE\r\nNEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION DESPITE A SEEMINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nI'M NOT READY TO BITE OFF ON SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nREASONING.  STILL...CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEM TO\r\nINDICATE THAT ALVIN WILL BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM SOONER RATHER THAN\r\nLATER THUS NECESSITATING A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 12.9N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 12.9N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 12.7N 116.8W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 12.6N 117.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 12.4N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 12.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 11.0N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 10.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-05-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007\r\n \r\nALVIN HAS LOST ALL DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...AND AN EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON NIGHT-VIS IMAGES.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nLOOKS TO BE ON A FAST TRACK TO DEGENERATING INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON.  \r\n\r\nOVERNIGHT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALVIN IS CREEPING TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST...250/2. MODELS CONTINUE THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK FOR A FEW DAYS DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS ALSO A TOUCH SLOWER SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nSTUBBORNLY REFUSING TO MOVE MUCH.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 13.0N 115.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 12.9N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 12.7N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 12.3N 117.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 11.9N 118.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 11.2N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 10.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alvin","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-05-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP012007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007\r\n\r\nI DON'T KNOW ABOUT SIMON AND THEODORE...BUT ALVIN IS NO LONGER A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE DEPRESSION'S CENTER REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SINCE THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND...THEREFORE...\r\nTHIS IS LAST ADVISORY ON ALVIN. A GRADUAL DECREASE OF THE WINDS HAS\r\nLIKELY OCCURRED SINCE THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY DEEP CONVECTION...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 20 KT. THE REMNANT LOW MAY\r\nPRODUCE OCCASIONAL FLAREUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT IS STEERED\r\nSLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 12.7N 116.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 12.5N 116.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 12.3N 117.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 12.1N 117.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 11.9N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 11.3N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 10.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH BANDING\r\nFEATURES DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A BETTER-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION TO THE WEST.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB AT 18Z WERE T2.0...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWO-E.\r\n\r\nAFTER DRIFTING NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE\r\nDEPRESSION NOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY.  LARGE SCALE MODELS ARE IN\r\nPRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG\r\nINTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH HIGH\r\nPRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. \r\nTHIS CONFIGURATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPART AN UNUSUAL NET SOUTHWARD\r\nSTEERING FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A SLOW DRIFT AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  WHILE ALL THE MAJOR MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN\r\nACAPULCO AND SALINA CRUZ SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION UNTIL THE EXPECTED MOTION AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE\r\nBECOMES ESTABLISHED.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE\r\nIS FORECAST SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BACK TOWARD THE COASTLINE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND ECMWF\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nOVER WATERS WARMER THAN 30C...AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS VERY\r\nLIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY HIGHLY\r\nDIVERGENT... AND COULD BE ENHANCED BY THE EXPECTED TROUGHING OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO 80 KT OR HIGHER...AND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nINDEX IS UNUSUALLY HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE.  POTENTIAL INHIBITING FACTORS WOULD\r\nBE SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND SOME POSSIBLE\r\nMID-LEVEL NORTHERLY SHEAR...BOTH OF WHICH COULD IMPACT THE\r\nRELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE AND CAUSE LESS DEVELOPMENT THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 14.2N  97.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.0N  97.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 13.5N  97.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 13.0N  97.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 13.0N  97.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 13.4N  97.7W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 14.5N  98.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N  99.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE MAY 29 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GETTING ANY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS EVENING.  DEEP CONVECTION IS A BIT MORE LIMITED THAN IT WAS A\r\nFEW HOURS AGO...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35\r\nKT.  QUIKSCAT PASSED OVER THE DEPRESSION AT ABOUT 0030Z...AND THE\r\nDATA HAVE JUST ARRIVED AS I TYPE.  A CURSORY ANALYSIS OF THE\r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SUGGESTS THAT THE ADVISORY POSITION AND 30 KT\r\nINTENSITY ARE REASONABLE.  CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS...\r\nINCLUDING BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL...HAVE BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND\r\nSO WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO CLEAR INDICATIONS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED AT ALL\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS\r\nSTATIONARY. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SLOW COMPONENT\r\nOF MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nIMPARTED BY NORTHERLY FLOW FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM MEXICO IN\r\nBETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND AN\r\nUPSTREAM RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NOW THE 18Z GFDL...THEN FORECAST\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO EXECUTE A CYCLONIC LOOP INTO THE GULF OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC...AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER MEXICO.\r\nTHE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS THE EXCEPTION WITH NO EASTWARD MOTION IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE FORECAST 500\r\nMB FIELDS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS LOOK VERY SIMILAR... THE\r\nDISAGREEMENTS IN TRACK MIGHT BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH\r\nOF THE MODEL CYCLONE. THE ECMWF HAS THE DEEPEST VORTEX AMONG THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...WHILE THE 18Z GFDL HAS A WEAKER INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTHAN BEFORE TO GO ALONG WITH ITS EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT. GIVEN THAT\r\nSEVERAL MODELS FORECAST A POTENTIALLY WEAKER CYCLONE TO GO FARTHER\r\nEAST...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS\r\nBUT IS STILL WEST OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 14.2N  97.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.8N  97.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.4N  97.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 13.0N  97.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N  96.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N  96.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N  97.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N  99.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E HAS\r\nINCREASED THIS MORNING...WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN A CLUSTER\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB...WHILE AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RANGED FROM 28 TO 42 KT DURING THE PAST 12\r\nHR.  WHILE THE EVIDENCE SHOWS THE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...IT IS NOT YET UNAMBIGUOUS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY AN\r\nUPGRADE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER\r\nMEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP INTO A BROAD PARTLY\r\nCUTOFF LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY 36 HR...AND WITH A SURFACE\r\nLOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 48-72 HR. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION WITH THE PROVERBIAL\r\nSQUASHED SPIDER PATTERN.  THE MODELS AGREE ON A SLOW GENERALLY\r\nSOUTHWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nGFDN...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO\r\nLANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA.  THE GFS FORECASTS A\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...AND THE BAM MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHE GULF TROUGH SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HR AND ALLOW\r\nRIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SO IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT\r\nMAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THEN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. \r\nHOWEVER... IF THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE GULF IS STRONG\r\nENOUGH...THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY FLOW COULD PULL THE CYCLONE INTO\r\nEASTERN MEXICO OR CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nAND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD\r\nGENERALLY REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. \r\nTHE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS BOTH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE IN 48-60\r\nHR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE...\r\nCALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HR AND A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 96 HR.  TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ARE THE SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH\r\nCOULD ALLOW RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES BOTH UP AND DOWN...AND THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE SYSTEM WILL GET.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 14.1N  97.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.9N  97.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 13.6N  96.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 13.1N  96.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 13.0N  96.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N  96.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N  97.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 16.0N  99.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 AM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2ND PARAGRAPH\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER...WITH A RAGGED BAND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE 35 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT GIVES 41\r\nKT.  ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  ONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1956 AND 1984...HAVE THERE BEEN TWO\r\nEASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NAMED STORMS IN MAY.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING OVER\r\nMEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE TROUGH.  THE IMAGERY ALSO\r\nSHOWS MID-LEVEL NORTHERLIES ABOUT TO IMPINGE ON THE CIRCULATION. \r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SOUTHWARD DRIFT AWAY\r\nFROM THE MEXICAN COASTLINE...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS FOR THE FIRST DAY OR TWO OF THE FORECAST.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER\r\nBARBARA WILL BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE GULF TROUGH OR\r\nSLIDE WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND RIDGING BUILDS BEHIND\r\nIT.  IN THE FORMER CAMP ARE THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHILE A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS INDICATED BY THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS. \r\nINTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY MUCH SPLIT BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO OPTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ADMITTEDLY LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE...CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE WESTWARD SCENARIO.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT AS WELL.  THE MID-LEVEL\r\nNORTHERLIES APPROACHING THE CYCLONE WILL ADVECT SOME DRY AIR INTO\r\nTHE CIRCULATION AND INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR.  CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nBARBARA COULD STRUGGLE IN THE SHORT RUN.  OVERALL...HOWEVER...\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH VERY WARM WATERS\r\nAND GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST BARBARA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ENDS UP IN ABOUT THE SAME PLACE BUT WITH LESS\r\nDEVELOPMENT INITIALLY. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 14.2N  97.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 13.9N  97.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 13.4N  97.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N  97.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 13.0N  96.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N  96.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N  97.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-05-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n \r\nBARBARA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE 35 KT FROM SAB...45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND 47 KT FROM THE CIMSS ADT.  BECAUSE A TRMM PASS AT 17Z\r\nSUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE NOT\r\nYET WELL CONNECTED...I'M LEANING ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG AND BARBARA WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM\r\nWATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TAKES BARBARA TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL TAKES\r\n48 HOURS TO DO SO.  IN THE SHORT TERM...NORTHERLY FLOW CURRENTLY\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW SHOULD REACH THE CENTER OF BARBARA IN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD SLOW THE INTENSIFICATION...BUT I\r\nSEE NO OTHER INHIBITING FACTORS AT THE MOMENT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE EXPECTED SOUTHWARD MOTION HAS OCCURRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NOW ESTIMATED AS 170/4.  NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nCONTINUED SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD...AND MOSTLY NOW LIFTS\r\nBARBARA NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  THE\r\n12Z ECMWF HAS THE MOST EXTREME SOLUTION...BRINGING BARBARA ACROSS\r\nGUATEMALA IN THREE DAYS.  THE ONLY REMAINING GUIDANCE FAVORING THE\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK...INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...IS THE NOT QUITE YET\r\nOPERATIONAL HWRF MODEL.  AS MODELS OFTEN FLIP IN THESE KINDS OF\r\nSITUATIONS...I'M NOT PREPARED TO MOVE AS FAR EAST AS MY\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT I HAVE MADE A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK.      \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 13.3N  97.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 12.9N  97.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 12.4N  96.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 12.4N  96.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 13.0N  96.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 13.7N  96.4W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  96.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 15.5N  97.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-05-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007\r\n \r\nTHE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT EARLIER TODAY HAVE MOSTLY\r\nDIMINISHED...RELEGATING THE DEEP CONVECTION TO ONE CLUSTER VERY\r\nNEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB HAVE BOTH COME DOWN TO 2.5 BUT A BLEND OF THE CI VALUES\r\nSUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 40 KT.  BARBARA FELL\r\nIN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT SWATHS TONIGHT...SO THERE IS NOTHING TO\r\nCONFIRM OR DENY THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE.  NOT ONLY ARE\r\nTHERE SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE PRIMARY DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...THE ENSEMBLES BASED ON INDIVIDUAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE TOO.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE CONTROL\r\nRUN OF THE 12Z ECMWF FORECASTS BARBARA TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND TO MOVE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA IN LESS\r\nTHAN 72 HOURS...WHILE ITS VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INCLUDE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACKS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.  MEANWHILE\r\nTHE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN ADAMANT ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...HAS\r\nDRAMATICALLY SHIFTED AND NOW FORECASTS A RELATIVELY BRISK\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  OTHER MODELS SUCH AS GFDL AND NOGAPS ARE IN BETWEEN...BUT\r\nTHEY LOSE THE CIRCULATION IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS NEAR THE GULF OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC.  ALL OF THE MODEL FLIP-FLOPPING GIVES ME LITTLE\r\nJUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN ANY DIRECTION...SO IT\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS TRACK IS SLOW\r\nSOUTHWARD FOR A DAY OR SO...THEN SLOW NORTHWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A SUBTLE WESTWARD BEND ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 WHEN THE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD SLIGHTLY OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH HAS REACHED THE CENTER OF BARBARA...WITH\r\nTHE ANTICIPATED INHIBITING EFFECTS ON THE INTENSITY.  THAT PATTERN\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY ABATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BARBARA\r\nWILL STILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nIN ACCORDANCE WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IN GENERAL...\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY ADJUSTED VERY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD\r\nAS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 13.0N  96.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 12.6N  96.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 12.4N  96.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 12.7N  96.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 13.1N  96.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  96.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  96.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 15.5N  97.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-05-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007\r\n \r\nBARBARA CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SHOW THE EXACT CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES FROM 00Z-03Z SUGGEST THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...SO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS NUDGED THAT WAY.  THIS YIELDS A\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 130/2.  BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE EXTENDING FROM A DISTURBANCE\r\nOVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE\r\nPACIFIC...AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE GULF TROUGH TO AMPLIFY WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HR...THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BARBARA AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.  THE GFDL... UKMET...ECMWF...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL\r\nBRING BARBARA TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 72 HR OR\r\nLESS...WHILE THE GFS CALLS FOR THE STORM TO PERFORM A LOOP AND MOVE\r\nLITTLE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  BASED ON THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION\r\nIN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE ADJUSTED POSITION... THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\nHOWEVER...IT SLOWER THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE AND BRINGS\r\nTHE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 96 HR.  AS THE GULF SYSTEM\r\nMOVED AWAY...PRESSURES SHOULD RISE NORTH OF BARBARA AND TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE WESTWARD...ASSUMING THAT IT HAS NOT MOVED ONSHORE BY\r\nTHAT TIME.  THIS TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n\r\nBARBARA IS IN A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...WITH\r\nHIGH-LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST BEING UNDERCUT BY NORTHERLY FLOW\r\nAT A SOMEWHAT LOWER LEVEL.  OVERALL...THE STORM HAS POOR OUTFLOW\r\nAND SEEMS TO BE LOSING INFLOW TO THE CARIBBEAN SYSTEM.  THESE\r\nFACTORS HAVE LIKELY SLOWED THE INTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nMORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH THE GFDL CALLING FOR\r\nBARBARA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THAT TIME.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECAST SLOWER INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CALLING FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR DUE TO THE\r\nEXPECTED CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTER TO THE COAST.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS NOW OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE NOT\r\nDIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA.  INSTEAD...THIS ACTIVITY IS DUE\r\nTO THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nAND THE RESULTING NORTHWARD PERTURBATION OF THE ITCZ. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 13.2N  96.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 12.9N  96.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 12.8N  96.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 13.3N  96.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 13.8N  96.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N  96.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  96.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 16.0N  98.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-05-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 31 2007\r\n \r\nBARBARA APPEARS TO HAVE LOST ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.  THE FIRST FEW\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES...AND QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES JUST RECEIVED...SUGGEST\r\nTHAT ITS SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD BE LOSING DEFINITION WITHIN A\r\nLARGER-SCALE TROUGH...A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ. BARBARA\r\nCONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE STRUCTURE\r\nOR BANDING. DVORAK T NUMBERS AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nBARBARA HAS WEAKENED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS MOVING SLOWLY\r\nEASTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST TURNS ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION OCCURS\r\nBETWEEN BARBARA AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nDIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY DIVERGENT ON THIS QUESTION. THE ECMWF\r\nREMAINS THE EASTERN OUTLIER... TAKING BARBARA INTO GUATEMALA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE GFS DRIFTS BARBARA SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE\r\nTHE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL INDICATE A SLOW NORTHWARD OR\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION THAT BRINGS THE CYCLONE OVER OR NEAR THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS\r\nTHE GULF TROUGH MOVES OUT...RISING HEIGHTS OVER MEXICO COULD TURN\r\nTHE CYCLONE WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nSOLUTIONS.  \r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT OF BARBARA IS LOOKING LESS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOW SHOWS SOME EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW...WHILE QUIKSCAT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY IS SHOWING LIMITED LOW-LEVEL INFLOW.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nBARBARA WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE ITCZ LATER TODAY.  IF IT\r\nSURVIVES...HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nGRADUALLY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS COULD ALLOW\r\nSOME REDEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH IT NOW SEEMS LESS LIKELY THAT\r\nBARBARA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 13.1N  95.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 13.4N  96.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 13.7N  96.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 14.1N  95.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 14.8N  95.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N  96.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N  97.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N  98.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-05-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT BARBARA HAS...AT\r\nBEST...A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SCALE\r\nTROUGH.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ACTIVE\r\nBUT POORLY ORGANIZED.  THE CYCLONE IS COMPETING FOR RESOURCES\r\nWITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...AND COULD DISSIPATE\r\nWITHIN THIS ZONE AT ANY TIME.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE COULD ABATE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...BASED MOSTLY ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...IS\r\n105/4...AS BARBARA APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW\r\nON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS\r\nOUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 12.9N  95.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 12.9N  95.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 13.3N  94.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.0N  94.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N  94.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N  95.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  95.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barbara","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-06-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 PM PDT THU MAY 31 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIPS NEARBY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER...IF\r\nIT EXISTS...IS VERY SMALL. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTS OF A\r\nLARGE CLOUD BAND RESEMBLING THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. AT\r\nTHIS TIME...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BASED SOLELY ON\r\nCONTINUITY AND IS BEING PLACED NEAR AN AREA OF STRONG BUT SMALL\r\nCONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING EASTWARD OR 090 AT 2 KNOTS...\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nBASE OF A TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES\r\nEASTWARD AND A HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nBARBARA...IF IT SURVIVES...SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY TO THE\r\nNORTH AND THEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS IS BASICALLY THE\r\nSOLUTION FROM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE APPARENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BARBARA HAS BEEN\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nSOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED WHEN THE WEST-NORTHWEST TURN\r\nTOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO BEGINS.        \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 12.9N  95.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 12.9N  94.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.0N  94.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N  94.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N  94.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N  95.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 16.3N  97.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barbara","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-06-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA APPEARS SOMEWHAT\r\nBETTER THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  STILL...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nNEARBY SHIPS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER\r\nSCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION EVEN EXISTS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY AN\r\nUNUSUALLY COMPLEX PATTERN.  ON ONE HAND...BARBARA IS LOCATED OVER\r\nVERY WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS TYPE OF\r\nENVIRONMENT WOULD NORMALLY FAVOR INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO BREAK FREE FROM THE LARGER\r\nSCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  ADDITIONALLY...LAND INTERACTION APPEARS\r\nPOSSIBLE IN A DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA.  WHILE THERE IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING\r\nAPPEARS LESS AND LESS LIKELY. \r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF BARBARA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  SINCE THIS GENERAL MOTION IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nEXTRAPOLATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED AT 090/4.  BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN\r\nUPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nLIFT NORTHWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN WOULD CAUSE BARBARA TO TURN BACK TOWARDS\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR IF BARBARA\r\nWILL BE A DEEP ENOUGH SYSTEM TO RESPOND TO SUCH A CHANGE IN THE\r\nSTEERING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 13.0N  94.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 13.1N  94.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N  93.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 14.2N  93.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 14.8N  93.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 16.0N  95.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-06-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nDEFINED THIS MORNING AS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED.\r\nA 1220 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS LEAVES LITTLE DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION EXISTS AND IN FACT...IT INDICATES THAT BARBARA\r\nIS ONCE AGAIN A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nBECOMING A DEEP SYSTEM AGAIN...THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nTHE UMKI...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND GFDL FIELDS SHOW LANDFALL IN\r\nEASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS REQUIRES\r\nANOTHER EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS SOLUTIONS...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS LANDFALL OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS.  THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nFROM SIPACATE GUATEMALA TO BARRA DE TONALA MEXICO.\r\n \r\nBARBARA IS LOCATED OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEER ENVIRONMENT.\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...BUT HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS THE QUESTION.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS DOES THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  THEREAFTER....INTERACTION WITH LAND COULD HALT ANY\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 13.0N  94.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.3N  93.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.9N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.6N  93.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 15.4N  93.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 16.6N  93.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-06-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007\r\n\r\nA COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THAT ARRIVED JUST AFTER THE\r\nRELEASE OF THIS MORNING ADVISORY DETECTED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES.  SINCE THEN THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY...BUT OVERALL BARBARA\r\nLOOKS MUCH BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO.  CURRENT DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND\r\nTHAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS INFLUENCING\r\nBARBARA'S CURRENT MOTION AS THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n065/4.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET MODELS INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL NOT PICK UP THE\r\nSTORM.  THEY KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD IN\r\nABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH.  THE ECMWF...\r\nNOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS TRACK THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nINLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...THESE MODELS KEEP A MID-LEVEL CENTER OFFSHORE\r\nWHICH THEY EVENTUALLY TURN WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS\r\nA BLEND OF THE ECMF...NOGAPS...AND GFDL.  THE NHC TRACK ASSUMES\r\nTHAT THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WILL REACH THE COAST.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES\r\nNOT MAKE LANDFALL IT MAY VERY WELL TURN BACK WEST AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE GFS AND UKMET.\r\n\r\nBARBARA REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS BRING THE SYSTEM TO 60 KT\r\nIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...HOWEVER IT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AS\r\nINTERACTION WITH LAND MAY INHIBIT STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST.  IF BARBARA REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION COULD BE TOO LOW. \r\n\r\nTHE NEW TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nWAS ALSO EXTENDED WESTWARD. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 13.4N  94.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.8N  93.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 14.6N  93.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 15.2N  93.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 15.8N  93.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N  93.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-06-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 01 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES DEPICT A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS\r\nARE EVIDENT AS WELL APPROXIMATELY 30 NM EAST OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0 (45 KT)...AND\r\nSO WILL THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nBARBARA CONTINUES TO MOVE WITHIN A PRONOUNCED BREAK IN A RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...AND INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nSET AT 065/7. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN SPLIT AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION WITH THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE ECMWF...GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE WILL REMAIN LONG ENOUGH TO INFLUENCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MOVE\r\nONSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT WILL LIKELY PARALLEL\r\nTHE COAST AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET...GFS...CANADIAN CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...HOWEVER...IF BARBARA REMAINS OFFSHORE THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST COULD BE LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 13.9N  93.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 14.4N  92.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 15.3N  92.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 16.2N  91.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-06-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007\r\n \r\nAN 0612Z TRMM PASS JUST IN CONFIRMS THAT BARBARA REMAINS BASICALLY\r\nON TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/7. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT\r\nON WHETHER BARBARA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK INLAND...OR\r\nMAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN AND PERHAPS PARALLEL THE COAST OFFSHORE. IN\r\nSOME CASES EVEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE ECMWF...FOR\r\nEXAMPLE...TAKES THE 850 MB CENTER INLAND BUT THE 500 MB CENTER\r\nWESTWARD. THERE ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOME TRACKER ISSUES IN THE GFDL\r\nMODEL WITH THE TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA. WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY DOES INDICATE SOME EASTERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD BE\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN...BUT I PREFER TO FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF...WHICH ALL\r\nINDICATE A BASIC CONTINUATION OF THE TRACK INLAND. THE TRMM PASS\r\nDID SHOW THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SO PERHAPS THE SEPARATION\r\nFORECAST BY THE ECMWF IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED MUCH...\r\nALTHOUGH I HAVE REDUCED THE WIND RADII BASED ON THE LAST QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS. A WINDSAT PASS BACK AT 2339Z SHOWED GOOD BANDING AND A\r\nLOW-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE...BUT THE LATEST TRMM IMAGE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nBARBARA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45\r\nKT AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 14.4N  92.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N  92.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 15.6N  92.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-06-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007\r\n\r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT BARBARA MADE LANDFALL NEAR THE BORDER OF\r\nMEXICO AND GUATEMALA SHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC.  AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS NEARING THE COAST. SINCE THEN....AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS\r\nOF A 1154 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS VERY\r\nNEAR THE COAST.  SURFACE DATA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ALSO SUPPORT\r\nTHE LANDFALL OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN AUTOMATED SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT PUERTO MADERO REPORTED 31 KT\r\nWINDS WITH GUSTS TO 46 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1003.4 MB.  A SECOND\r\nOBSERVATION AT TAPACHULA MEXICO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005.1 MB.\r\n\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT.\r\nBARBARA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING INLAND AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE ONLY\r\nCAVEAT IN THE FORECAST IS THAT SOME MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTER COULD GET LEFT BEHIND.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK\r\nCONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND ASSUMES THAT IT WILL\r\nWEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE\r\nMEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.\r\n\r\nIF BARBARA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL\r\nBE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 14.8N  92.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 15.6N  92.0W    30 KT...INLAND \r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 16.5N  91.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barbara","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-06-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP022007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 02 2007\r\n \r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON\r\nTHE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OF BARBARA AND IT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER\r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\n\r\nONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA IS LIKELY TO\r\nCONTINUE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS\r\nFOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\n12-FT SEA RADII WERE INCLUDED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON\r\nEARLIER SHIPS REPORTS.  HOWEVER...THEY SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE\r\nTONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON\r\nBARBARA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 15.5N  92.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 16.3N  92.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-06-11 16:00:00","Key":"EP032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007\r\n900 AM PDT MON JUN 11 2007\r\n \r\nEARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION\r\nPERSISTING CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS\r\nBEEN MONITORED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  A 1302 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AND AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25 TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THE ABOVE\r\nINFORMATION...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHREE-E.   \r\n\r\nALLOWING FOR SOME REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/08.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nJUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING A\r\nRIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS.  AT THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE WEST AND DISSIPATE IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS AS A\r\nRESULT OF COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN\r\nAS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSELY THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1600Z 15.7N 110.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 16.2N 111.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N 112.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 114.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS OVERALL\r\nHAVE WARMED...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE. 1800\r\nUTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0 OR\r\n30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT\r\n30 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING A VERY STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...A SHORT 12-24 HOUR WINDOW EXISTS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nREACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE SSTS FALL BELOW 25 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE LGE...LOGISTIC\r\nGROWTH EQUATION...VERSION OF THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS VERSION MORE\r\nCLOSELY SIMULATES THE CHANGING ENVIRONMENT THAN THE STANDARD\r\nVERSION OF SHIPS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nPOSITIONED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS INFLUENCING THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION.  ONCE THE\r\nTROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE\r\nNORTH AND TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...EXCEPT A BIT\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 16.3N 111.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.6N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 114.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 18.2N 116.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-06-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER FADING EARLIER...A NEW BALL OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS NEW BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION.  THE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THIS\r\nSYSTEM POSSIBLY HAVING MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION\r\nENVELOPE.  HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTED BY A 2034Z AQUA MICROWAVE\r\nPASS...SO THE DEPRESSION IS REPOSITIONED POLEWARD ON THIS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DEPRESSION ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM-STRENGTH.  THIS SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE AS THE DEPRESSION HAS CROSSED THE 79F ISOTHERM WITH\r\nCOOLER WATERS NOT FAR AWAY.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...\r\nPERHAPS WITH HELP FROM THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM\r\nPERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER IN\r\nLINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nA LONGER-TERM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 315/9.  A LOW TO\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS TEMPORARILY CAUSING A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INITIATING THE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE WEAKNESS FILLS IN TOMORROW AS THE\r\nTROUGH DEPARTS...WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD TURN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE CENTER\r\nRELOCATION...BUT IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 17.3N 111.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N 114.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 18.7N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-06-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007\r\n \r\nFOLLOWING AN EARLIER BURST OF CONVECTION...LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEAKENING AND\r\nDECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT.  WHILE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nHAS PROVIDED LITTLE ASSISTANCE IN DETERMINING THE CENTER\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE...A 0322Z TRMM PASS AND A 0130Z QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nALSO SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS...AT BEST.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS LOSING THE LITTLE STEAM IT HAD. \r\nSSTS ARE CURRENTLY JUST UNDER 26 DEGREES CELSIUS IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND THE CHANCE FOR IT TO INTENSIFY TO A STORM HAS\r\nESSENTIALLY DIMINISHED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WEAKENS THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER IF THE\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...THE DISSIPATING PROCESS COULD\r\nOCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO\r\nBE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH HAS CAUSED A BREAK IN THE TYPICAL EAST-\r\nPACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-\r\nLIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE...OR\r\nWHAT'S LEFT OF IT...IS STEERED TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 17.7N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N 113.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 115.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.1N 116.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-06-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THERE IS VERY LITTLE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DENSE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD IN THE PATH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE WHICH SUGGESTS A STABLE AIR MASS.  THE SYSTEM WILL SOON\r\nBE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25 DEG C.  GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS...OR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT MAKE A COMEBACK.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8 BASED ON CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE FIXES.  THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS PREDICTED AS\r\nHIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS\r\nREMNANT LOW...OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 18.1N 113.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.6N 114.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N 116.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-06-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nTHROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS SO\r\nDISSIPATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  IN FACT...IF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW HOURS...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nMY TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.  CURRENT MOTION\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION IS AROUND 300/8.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nIS FORECAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE WEAKENING\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 18.5N 114.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.9N 115.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N 116.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 19.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-06-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP032007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 12 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO LACK DEEP CONVECTION AND NO LONGER MEETS\r\nTHE REQUIREMENTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nOVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN TOMORROW AS RIDGING BUILDS\r\nIN TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW.  THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE\r\nREMNANTS OF THREE-E AROUND FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 19.1N 115.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 19.4N 116.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.7N 117.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 19.7N 119.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 19.7N 121.0W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE CENTER SINCE ABOUT 09Z\r\nTHIS MORNING.  ON THIS BASIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...WITH THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY PASSING\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  RIDGING AHEAD OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES\r\nFROM THIS MORNING SHOWING A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING.  SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE\r\nINDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH STORM STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 16.8N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.4N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.8N 121.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.4N 122.6W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 19.0N 124.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REALLY FIZZLED TONIGHT NEAR THE ILL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE\r\nNOT CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN A POSSIBLY\r\nGENEROUS 30 KT.  FOR THE SHORT-TERM...PERSISTENCE IS A GOOD BET\r\nBECAUSE OF A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT DUE TO\r\nTHE DIURNAL CYCLE.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE\r\nGUIDANCE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...A\r\nRESULT OF THE DEPRESSION CROSSING INTO COOLER SSTS AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE MARINE LAYER.\r\n \r\nAN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 2100 UTC SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED...SO A NORTHWARD RELOCATION WAS MADE\r\nIN THIS ADVISORY.  THE LONG-TERM MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD AT\r\nABOUT 7 KT.  A GRADUAL SHIFT IN TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS\r\nLIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOMEWHAT TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION...BUT OTHERWISE IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE LAST FORECAST.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 17.7N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 18.2N 120.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 18.8N 121.8W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 19.4N 123.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT IS\r\nDISPLACED NORTH OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nSTILL...IT IS ENOUGH TO HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION\r\nSEEMS TO HAVE EVERYTHING WORKING AGAINST IT INCLUDING PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...AND A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nCALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nDEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE LAST FEW FRAMES INDICATE THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION...300/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED.  AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 18.3N 120.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 122.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING HAS PROVIDED LITTLE\r\nASSISTANCE IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  A 0937 UTC AMSU-B\r\nMICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS PERSISTED FOR\r\nABOUT FOUR OR FIVE HOURS.  DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nPOSITION AS WELL AS THE LONGEVITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE TO\r\nTHE EAST AND A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH CAUSED BY PRESENCE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.  \r\n\r\nDESPITE THE CURRENT DEEP CONVECTION...BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nCONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  WITH WATERS\r\nBELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 36 HOURS OR SO. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 18.6N 120.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.2N 121.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 19.9N 123.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 20.6N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS QUICKLY\r\nDETERIORATED TODAY...AND THE CYCLONE HAS LOST ALMOST ALL OF ITS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AND\r\nILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  BASED ON THE ABOVE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.  THE COOL WATERS AND\r\nMODERATE SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE AND\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/8.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT THE TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 19.4N 121.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 122.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 20.6N 123.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 21.3N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP042007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007\r\n \r\nANIMATED GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nSEPARATED FROM THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION AT AROUND\r\n18Z...AND BECAME FULLY EXPOSED AFTER ABOUT 21Z.  IT HAS BEEN EASY\r\nTO TRACK SINCE THEN AND HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8-9 KT. \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO\r\nINDICATES THAT THIS IS THE SAME CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAD BEEN\r\nMOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN COMPLETELY ABSENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND THE\r\nDISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT\r\n23-24 CELSIUS.  THE CYCLONE HAS FALLEN APART AND A COMEBACK APPEARS\r\nUNLIKELY... SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.  THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATING COMPLETELY IN 36 HOURS OR LESS.  FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 18.9N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.8N 124.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 18.8N 126.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE...HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSOLIDATED THIS MORNING.  EARLY\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY EXPOSED CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 1200 UTC WERE\r\n2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED FOR TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FIVE-E.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS LOSE THE\r\nVORTEX IN LESS THAN TWO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE\r\nMARGINAL SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND UNDER 10 KT\r\nOF NORTHERLY SHEAR.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THESE TWO FACTORS CAN AID\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER AS THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE OCEAN\r\nWILL BECOME INCREASINGLY COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 25 OR 24\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS.  THIS INHIBITING FACTOR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE DAYS OR SO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 15.5N 114.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.6N 124.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE\r\nTHIS MORNING...AND THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1346 UTC\r\nSHOWED UN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT.  DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\n30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED\r\nBY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET\r\nMODEL...WHICH INITIALIZED THE CYCLONE THE BEST. \r\n\r\nDESPITE THE WARM 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER...10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR IS INHIBITING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE CYCLONE HAS ABOUT A 12 TO 24 HOUR WINDOW TO INTENSIFY TO\r\nSTORM STRENGTH BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...WHEN IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW.  \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 16.2N 116.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.7N 117.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.9N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 16.0N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E LOOKS QUITE SICK. ALL OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE LOW CLOUD LINES INDICATE THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND ELONGATED.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  HAVING SAID\r\nTHAT...THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND STILL HAS TONIGHT'S\r\nDIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM AHEAD OF IT.  ONE MORE BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE DEPRESSION ENTERING A RATHER\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR...COLD WATER...AND STABLE AIR\r\nTOMORROW.  DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN A DAY OR\r\nSO...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE POOR ORGANIZATION...TRACKING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS\r\nBEEN DIFFICULT AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN 285/12.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 15.9N 117.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N 118.9W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING.  DVORAK DATA T\r\nNUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND WITH THE LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION\r\nTHE SYSTEM BARELY CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 0215 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE SMALL AND THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 25 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER HOSTILE WITH\r\nSTRONG SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THEREFORE...IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12 AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  SEVERAL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY THE\r\nLARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DURING THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 16.2N 118.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 120.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 124.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION THAT RESUMED SHORTLY AFTER 06Z HAS PERSISTED...\r\nBUT IT HAS BEEN POORLY ORGANIZED AND ESSENTIALLY CONFINED TO A\r\nCLUSTER ANCHORED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AT 12Z WERE 1.0 AND 1.5...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS HEADED TOWARD COOLER\r\nWATERS...PROBABLY LESS THAN 25 CELSIUS BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND\r\nTHE WIND SHEAR MIGHT INCREASE A LITTLE TOO...SO THE AMOUNT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THIS\r\nRELATIVELY SMALL DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MEET ITS ULTIMATE DEMISE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHEN IT OR ITS REMNANT LOW\r\nDISSIPATES WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE MUCH LARGER TD 6-E\r\nCURRENTLY SITUATED TO ITS SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTD 5-E APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING AT ABOUT 285/12 DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...BASED ON GOES SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E\r\nOVERPASS AT 0930Z.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES IN BETWEEN\r\nHIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND TD 6-E TO THE SOUTH.  THAT WESTERLY\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 16.8N 119.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.2N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 17.2N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DATA T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT\r\n1.5.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION... HOWEVER...IS LOSING\r\nDEFINITION...IN PART BECAUSE INFLOW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE\r\nLARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARBY TO THE SOUTHWEST.  TD 5-E IS ALSO\r\nHEADED TOWARD COOLER WATERS... AND IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT CIRCULATION OR POSSIBLY DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER BY\r\nTOMORROW.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13\r\nKT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION... IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH... WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 17.1N 121.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 123.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP052007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  IN FACT...ACTIVITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SMALL AREA OF\r\nSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED\r\nCIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...IMAGERY INDICATES MULTIPLE SMALL SURFACE\r\nSWIRLS ROTATING ABOUT THE CYCLONE'S CENTER. AN EARLIER 1847Z TRMM\r\nWIND IMAGE REVEALED WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 20 KT. THE TRMM OVERPASS\r\nALSO INDICATED AN AREA OF RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nBANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY.  HOWEVER...THAT AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nGENEROUSLY REMAINS AT 25 KT ONLY DUE TO THE LINGERING CONVECTIVE\r\nACTIVITY TO WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE DISSIPATING CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND 12 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nCOSME TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 17.6N 122.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.2N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.8N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-07-14 17:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n1000 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER...LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN MEXICO AND THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE\r\nTHIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 5\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG BUT...SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE MARGINAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN.\r\nTHEREFORE...ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1700Z 11.2N 126.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 11.5N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 130.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 135.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 138.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 143.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A FEW\r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...BUT IT LACKS A CONVECTIVE\r\nINNER CORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS IN ACCORD WITH\r\nLATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LIGHT...THE DEPRESSION IS HEADING TOWARD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES THAT ARE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING.  THEREFORE...ONLY\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF BOTH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS.   SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nEASTERLY FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 11.4N 127.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 11.6N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 12.0N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N 132.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...WITH CLOUD SWIRLS\r\nROTATING AROUND A HARD TO DISCERN CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THERE\r\nSTILL IS LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND ONLY ONE\r\nWELL-DEFINED BAND WHICH IS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  OVERALL...\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS LESS VIGOROUS THAN SIX HOURS AGO. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER POSITION IS UNCERTAIN...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 270/6.  SOME ERRATIC\r\nMOTION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES\r\nAND THE CIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS NOW SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 135W.  SOME MODELS\r\nSHOW THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION ELONGATING AND THEN BEING EJECTED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ...AND INDEED THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL\r\nROTATION IS ALREADY WELL NORTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE EVEN FARTHER\r\nTO THE NORTH.   \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH DIVERGENCE\r\nALOFT...LIGHT SHEAR...AND WARM WATERS.  HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION\r\nIS STILL ENGAGED WITH THE ITCZ AND THE CONVECTION IS WIDELY\r\nDISPERSED.  THIS WOULD ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT... ALTHOUGH\r\nINTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS VERY HIGH.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER 26C WATERS\r\nSO WHATEVER INTENSIFICATION DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 11.3N 127.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 11.5N 128.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 12.2N 129.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 130.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 13.7N 132.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 136.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.0N 139.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 142.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A\r\nFEW BANDING FEATURES AND LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...INHIBITING\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO\r\nBE MOVING ERRATICALLY WITHIN A LARGER GYRE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n295/4. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS THE RIDGE\r\nREBUILDS. INITIALLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK...BUT ALL AGREE ON TURNING THE CYCLONE \r\nWESTWARD LATER IN FORECAST PERIOD... AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 11.5N 127.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 11.9N 128.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 136.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 15.5N 140.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 144.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A BIT THIS MORNING WITH A\r\nLARGE CURVED BAND OCCUPYING THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF THE LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH HAD BEEN LACKING OVERNIGHT.  BASED ON A 1032 UTC\r\nTRMM MICROWAVE PASS...THE CENTER WAS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS LOCATION...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP TO\r\n30 KT.  IF THIS ORGANIZING TREND OF THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES...\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nSINCE POSITION FIXES FROM THE TRMM AND GOES DATA COINCIDE WELL...\r\nTHERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED AT\r\n310/5. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBUILD BACK IN AND TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n \r\nWITH WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR CURRENTLY INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE\r\nCYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  SINCE THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS LARGE...HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 12.3N 127.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 13.0N 127.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 14.0N 129.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N 130.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.3N 132.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N 137.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 145.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE\r\nTODAY.  THE ONCE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AND\r\nTHE CENTER IS EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  OUTER BANDING\r\nFEATURES SURROUND THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE\r\nLAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0/45\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB.  IN ADDITION....A 1500 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED\r\nSEEMINGLY RELIABLE 30 KT WINDS...BUT WAS INCONCLUSIVE ABOUT\r\nANYTHING STRONGER.  BASED ON THESE DATA...SIX-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM COSME WITH 35 KT WINDS...LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FOR NOW.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/7.  THE STEERING MECHANISM\r\nAND TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING. \r\nCOSME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN CURVE MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST ONCE THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. \r\n\r\nCOSME SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nTO OCCUR.  THEREAFTER...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS COSME\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE\r\nAGAIN A CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 12.7N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 13.3N 128.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 130.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 14.5N 132.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 14.7N 134.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 143.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 148.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007\r\n \r\nCOSME IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  AN AMSR-E OVERPASS AT 2200 UTC\r\nSUGGESTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TIGHTER INNER CORE...AND SUBSEQUENT\r\nCONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE NOW 45 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/7.  LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nCOSME...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER COSME\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT. \r\nWHILE ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...THE\r\nUKMET...ECMWF...AND BAM MODELS CALL FOR MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IN\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HR BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN.  THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...\r\nAND CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR LESS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT BEFORE THE\r\nTURN...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THESE MODELS.  ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR A FASTER MOTION AFTER 36 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS...SO THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN INCREASED SOMEWHAT. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT COSME IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE\r\nTHAT INCLUDES THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5-E...AND THIS MAY\r\nPRODUCE SOME TRACK WOBBLES DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR.\r\n\r\nCOSME IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...\r\nAND THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nAT LEAST THE NEXT FOUR DAYS.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nCONTROLLED MAINLY BY THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  SST ANALYSES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE STORM IS OVER 27C TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCOOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 12-24 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nCOSME SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS\r\nIN 36 HR OR SO.  SHIPS FORECAST COSME TO BECOME A HURRICANE...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF DO NOT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED...NOW CALLING FOR COSME TO PEAK AT 60 KT IN 24 HR AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL/HWRF.  IF THE CURRENT\r\nCONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...THERE IS A CHANCE COSME COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED BASED ON THE INCREASED\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 13.3N 128.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 13.8N 129.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.5N 131.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.8N 133.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.0N 135.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N 140.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 146.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 151.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007\r\n \r\nCOSME HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING.  MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nEXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND THE BEGINNING OF AN EYE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT AND\r\nTHAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.  COSME HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL\r\nSTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TURNING COSME MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE GFDL...\r\nHWRF...GFS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY AND INDICATES THAT COSME\r\nWILL TURN MORE WESTWARD WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND\r\nSLOWER GFS. \r\n\r\nSINCE COSME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  COSME IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 27C\r\nWHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE SSTS\r\nGRADUALLY COOL.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS COSME TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nWHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF PEAK THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY LOWER.  GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND PREDICT A HURRICANE WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING.  LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND AT THAT\r\nTIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN MOST OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 13.8N 129.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.4N 130.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.9N 132.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 15.2N 134.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 136.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.2N 141.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 146.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 151.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF COSME HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST\r\nSIX HOURS.  THE CYCLONE HAS AN EMBEDDED CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND CLOUD TOPS AROUND -80 DEGREES CELSIUS.  A 1013 UTC AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...AS DID EARLIER MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55\r\nKT...WHICH IS ALSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  \r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  COSME IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST...AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL STRONGER RIDGING TO THE NORTH.  \r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND ANTICIPATES THE\r\nRIDGE TO CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...STEERING COSME ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS\r\nCLOSELY WITH THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT CHALLENGING.  IN THE NEAR TERM...\r\nCOSME SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAIRLY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 25-26C.  IF COSME REACHES HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...IT WILL MOST LIKELY DO SO IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...HOWEVER...BOTH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH LONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.   \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 14.3N 130.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N 131.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 15.1N 133.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 135.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 137.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 143.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 148.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 153.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cosme","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER GOING THROUGH AN ORGANIZATIONAL LULL THIS MORNING...COSME HAS\r\nRAMPED UP THIS AFTERNOON.  A DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER 1434 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT PEAK WINDS WERE AROUND 60 KT AT THAT\r\nTIME.  SINCE THEN...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND\r\nCOSME HAS A SMALL EYE WITH A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING\r\nFULLY AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/10.  THE HURRICANE IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS STEERING\r\nMECHANISM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT FASTER\r\nAT DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE...POSSIBLY DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE THAT\r\nTHE MODELS ARE ANTICIPATING.\r\n \r\nCOSME'S INTENSITY COULD BE PEAKING...SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nALREADY BELOW 26C AND ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FURTHER ALONG THE\r\nPROJECTED TRACK.   THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS THE\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH DAY FIVE...AS A RESULT OF THE COOLER WATERS AND A\r\nMORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nONE BIT OF TRIVIA...ONLY FOUR OTHER EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASONS\r\nHAVE HAD THEIR FIRST HURRICANE FORM LATER THAN COSME.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 14.5N 131.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.9N 132.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.2N 134.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.6N 137.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N 139.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 157.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cosme","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2007\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT THE EYE SEEN EARLIER\r\nHAS DISAPPEARED...WITH COSME NOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY RAGGED CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT REMAINS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  MICROWAVES IMAGES DUE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE UNDER THE CDO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE MASS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH COSME\r\nCOVER A FAIRLY SMALL AREA...IT HAS A RATHER LARGE OVERALL CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE ON THE ORDER OF 400 N MI ACROSS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A LOW/\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SPREAD\r\nBETWEEN THE MORE NORTHERLY NOGPAS THAT TRACKS A WEAKENING COSME\r\nTHROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERLY GFS AND ECMWF THAT\r\nTRACK IT ABOUT 100-150 N MI SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HR BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nDOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  COSME WILL BE SPENDING THE NEXT 72 HR\r\nOVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THUS...THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN FAVORABLE.  AFTER 72 HR...THE SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...BUT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR TO DEVELOP.  GIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS... THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW WEAKENING AS PER\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  HOWEVER... COSME COULD BE STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST AFTER 72 HR IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH AN AREA OF FORECAST LIGHTER SHEAR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 15.1N 132.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 15.5N 134.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.9N 136.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N 138.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.7N 141.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 147.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 153.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF COSME IS LAGGING BEHIND ITS DEEP CONVECTION...WITH AN\r\nEVEN GREATER SEPARATION SUGGESTED BY THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES AT\r\n03Z.  THE QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT COSME HAD WEAKENED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM BY 03Z...AND IT PRESUMABLY HAS WEAKENED FURTHER\r\nSINCE THEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nIN VIEW OF THE MICROWAVE DATA...AN EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER\r\nWAS REQUIRED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n295/8...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND PRESUMES THAT AS\r\nCOSME MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS IT WILL HAVE A MORE\r\nDIFFICULT TIME RESPONDING TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE BASIC\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED...HOWEVER...IN CALLING FOR\r\nCOSME TO MOVE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNDERNEATH A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING COSME NEAR OR OVER\r\nTHE ISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE COSME TO CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...AND TOWARDS THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD SSTS ALONG THE TRACK WILL INCREASE AGAIN. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...IT'S AT LEAST POSSIBLE THAT COSME COULD MAINTAIN\r\nSTORM STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT\r\nAMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AS TO WHAT KIND OF UPPER FLOW WILL BE\r\nPRESENT BY THEN...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR SHOWING INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR THAT WOULD PROBABLY FINISH THE CYCLONE OFF IF IT\r\nVERIFIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 15.1N 132.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.4N 134.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.7N 136.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N 138.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N 141.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N 153.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N 158.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007\r\n \r\nDURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS QUICKLY\r\nDETERIORATED.  TRMM AND AMSR-E OVERPASSES FROM 1018 UTC AND 1056\r\nUTC RESPECTIVELY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH THE\r\nREMAINING DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 60-75 N MI TO THE WEST.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 40 KT.\r\nTHIS IS MUCH LOWER THAN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE\r\nBEING CONSTRAINED DUE TO DVORAK WEAKENING RULES.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE 1018 UTC TRMM PASS...THE CENTER WAS RELOCATED TO THE\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE MOTION...ALBEIT UNCERTAIN...IS NOW 280/10.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS VIRTUALLY THE SAME...COSME IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH FIVE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  ONCE AGAIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS COSME NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nBOTH COOL WATERS AND EASTERLY SHEAR ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nINFLUENCE THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ACTUALLY DISSIPATES COSME IN TWO\r\nDAYS...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM THROUGH DAY FIVE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS\r\nCOSME AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 4 DAYS.   HOWEVER IF THE\r\nCURRENT RAPID WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...SOME ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD\r\nADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 15.1N 134.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 136.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N 138.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.2N 141.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.7N 143.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 150.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 155.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 19.0N 160.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007\r\n \r\nTHE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS AN EXPOSED\r\nTIGHTLY-SWIRLED CIRCULATION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  A BLEND OF DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nAND CURRENT INTENSITY YIELDED 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB. \r\nTHE 6-HOUR AVERAGED AUTOMATED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nUW-CIMMS RANGED FROM 25 TO 30 KT.  COMPROMISING ON THE ABOVE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  \r\n \r\nCOSME IS CURRENTLY MOVING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AND A BIT\r\nFASTER AT 275/12.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM REMAINS THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH...AND MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE RIDGE\r\nTHROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS\r\nREASONING AND TAKES COSME ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK.  IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN... HOWEVER...A MORE\r\nWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION COULD OCCUR.  \r\n \r\nCOSME REMAINS OVER 25C WATERS AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.   THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS\r\nDUE PRIMARILY TO PERSISTENCE...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS IT AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS.   IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS AND STAYS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE WATERS WARM\r\nBACK UP WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 14.8N 135.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 137.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 139.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.1N 142.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.7N 145.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 152.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 156.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N 161.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2007\r\n \r\nWHILE COSME CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...\r\nCONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH TOPS TO -80C IN A\r\nCLUSTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT UNTIL THE CONVECTION SHOWS SOME\r\nPERSISTENCE.  AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT OVERPASS MAY PROVIDE BETTER\r\nINFORMATION ON THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF COSME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF NOW CALL MORE A\r\nMORE WESTERLY TRACK THAN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS\r\nFOR A TRACK THROUGH THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND THE\r\nCCON CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IF THE CURRENT CONVECTION PERSISTS...THIS\r\nCOULD ALLOW COSME TO MAINTAIN ITSELF OR EVEN SLIGHTLY RE-STRENGTHEN. \r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE ONLY MODEL THAT FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AT\r\nTHE MOMENT IS THE GFDL.  AFTER 72 HR...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO FORM NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK... WHICH COULD CAUSE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST SHEAR IS NORTH OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD\r\nALLOW COSME TO MISS THAT AREA.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nLOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ASSUMING THAT THE CURRENT CONVECTION WILL NOT PERSIST\r\nAND CALLING FOR COSME TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 15.1N 136.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.2N 138.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 15.6N 140.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.2N 143.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.7N 146.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 152.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 157.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N 161.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2007\r\n \r\nCOSME CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION AS IT MOVES OVER 25C WATERS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE\r\nCYCLONE.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...IT MAY BE APPROPRIATE\r\nTO BE NEAR THE LOW END OF THE RANGE OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES...AND SO\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST THINKING...WITH A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF COSME BEING THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF A TIGHTLY PACKED ENSEMBLE OF\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n\r\nCOSME IS MAINTAINING A RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE\r\nSST'S IT IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING.  EVEN COOLER WATERS LIE\r\nAHEAD...HOWEVER...AND REACH A MINIMUM BEFORE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR COSME TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. \r\nAFTER THAT...SST'S ALONG THE TRACK WILL BE INCREASING...AND THERE\r\nCOULD BE SOME REGENERATION BY 72 HOURS.  NONE OF THE EXPLICIT\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...INCLUDING SHIPS...NOW SHOWS ANY DECAY AT THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HANGS ON TO COSME AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT...\r\nALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO \r\nLATE-PERIOD WEAKENING. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.2N 137.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.4N 139.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 15.7N 141.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 16.2N 144.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N 147.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 153.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 18.5N 164.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2007\r\n \r\nCOSME CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO...AND\r\nBASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11.  AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A STUCK\r\nRECORD...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING...AS\r\nA LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nMAINTAIN THIS RIDGE THROUGH 5 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS SHOWN BY ALL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE REGIONAL GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS...WHICH CALL MORE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK CLOSER TO HAWAII...\r\nAND THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH CALL FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN BETWEEN\r\nTHE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...COSME SHOULD REACH GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS\r\nSUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...COSME SHOULD REACH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATER AND QUITE\r\nPOSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS THE NOGAPS...UKMET...\r\nAND ECMWF NOW SHOW STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES NEAR THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK THAN THE PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE GFS...WHICH PROVIDES\r\nTHE SHEAR VALUES FOR THE SHIPS MODEL...FORECASTS A LESS HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL BE THE SAME AS THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER 72 HR...AS BY\r\n120 HR COSME COULD BE RE-INTENSIFYING OR COMPLETELY DISSIPATED\r\nDEPENDING ON HOW MUCH SHEAR IT ENCOUNTERS.\r\n\r\nCOSME WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO 140W BY 18Z...AND THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER WILL LIKELY ASSUME RESPONSIBILITY AFTER THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.3N 138.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 15.4N 140.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 15.9N 143.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 16.4N 146.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 149.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 155.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 161.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 166.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cosme","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP062007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 18 2007\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AT 1521Z INDICATED 30-35 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCOSME.  SINCE THEN...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED\r\nSLIGHTLY.  BASED ON THIS...COSME IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  12 FT SEAS RADII WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE WAS STILL OF STORM STRENGTH A FEW HOURS AGO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 275/11.  THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nAND NORTHWEST OF COSME REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM...AND\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THIS RIDGE THROUGH 5\r\nDAYS.  COSME SHOULD THUS CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE\r\nSHIFTED SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...WITH ONLY THE BAM\r\nMODELS AND LBAR NOW CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO PASS OVER THE ISLAND\r\nOF HAWAII.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTHWARD AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC.  IN THE SHORT TERM...\r\nCOSME SHOULD REACH GRADUALLY INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN\r\nABOUT 30 HR IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SUGGEST THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING...ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM DOES\r\nNOT DISSIPATE FROM LACK OF CONVECTION BEFORE THEN.  AFTER 72 HR...\r\nCOSME SHOULD REACH SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATER AND QUITE POSSIBLY\r\nSIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS FORECAST BY THE NOGAPS...\r\nUKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR COSME TO PERSIST AS A DEPRESSION FOR 72 HR...THEN\r\nWEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO SHEAR.  SINCE THE GFS STILL\r\nFORECASTS LESS SHEAR THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND THERE IS STILL A\r\nPOSSIBILITY COSME COULD TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA OF STRONG SHEAR...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 72 HR REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 15.0N 140.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 15.2N 142.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 15.7N 144.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N 148.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 16.7N 151.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 157.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N 163.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 18.0N 168.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 21 2007\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY DEEP\r\nAT THIS TIME BUT THERE ARE SOME CYCLONICALLY CURVED RAINBANDS. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\n \r\nTHERE IS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO INDUCING A MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT A GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING COULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE SYSTEM JUST FORMED\r\nAND THERE IS NOT A GOOD HISTORY OF THE TRACK. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n285/12. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...BUT BECAUSE\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nSLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS INDICATED BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nCONSIDERING CLIMATOLOGY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS\r\nTHE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. LETS SEE WHEN WE GET THE FIRST\r\nRUN OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.   \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 12.7N 105.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.5N 107.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 14.0N 108.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 14.3N 109.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.5N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN QUITE A CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nOVERNIGHT.  USING CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 0546\r\nUTC TRMM PASS...THE CENTER IS ROUGHLY ESTIMATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS\r\nORGANIZATION STAGE...AND LACKS SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURES.  BASED\r\nON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 25 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 11 KT.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT\r\nIN A SLOWER MOTION AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE RIDGE\r\nWEAKENS.  THE TIMING...HOWEVER...OF WHEN THIS NORTHWEST TURN WILL\r\nOCCUR IS WHERE THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY LIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWS MOST\r\nCLOSELY WITH THE HWRF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...WHICH TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES AROUND 20-25 KTS OF\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE...AS A\r\nRESULT OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER MEXICO.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD SLOW\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS....AND THEN RELAX SOMEWHAT.  SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY 29C AND...BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nTRACK FORECAST...SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUSTAIN THE\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nANTICIPATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS THEN\r\nLEVELS OFF.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND HWRF\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IS ABOVE THE GFDL AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...WHICH\r\nTURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD SOONER INTO A HIGHER SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 12.8N 106.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.2N 107.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.6N 108.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 13.8N 110.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.2N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007\r\n \r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...\r\nREQUIRING A RE-LOCATION.  THE SYSTEM IS QUITE DISORGANIZED...WITH\r\nTHE CIRCULATION ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...AND\r\nTHE CONVECTION DISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER BY 20-25 KT OF\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT THESE MAY BE A BIT\r\nGENEROUS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A MORE CONSERVATIVE 30\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST\r\nWITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HR OR SO.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES\r\nON THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD ON THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF\r\nTHE TURN.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN CALL FOR A MORE NORTHWARD TURN\r\nCLOSER TO 110W...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nSTARTING AT 112W.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CCON CONSENSUS MODEL. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOT READILY\r\nAPPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT MAY BE MASKED BY CLOUDS AND\r\nMOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS.\r\n\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR...WHICH AT THE VERY LEAST SHOULD SLOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT.  THE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME INTENSIFICATION\r\nDESPITE THE SHEAR...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A FASTER\r\nDEVELOPMENT RATE AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF SLOW DEVELOPMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY AT 96 HR FOLLOWED\r\nBY A WEAKENING TREND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 120\r\nHR.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT LITTLE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR\r\nDURING THE FIRST 36-48 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE\r\nNORMAL DEVELOPMENT RATE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 12.8N 105.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.2N 107.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.7N 108.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 109.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 14.6N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 113.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E IS COMPRISED OF\r\nA LARGE CYCLONIC SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH ABUNDANT...BUT\r\nDISORGANIZED...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND IN A LARGE BAND AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nOVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM ARE UNCHANGED SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS UNDER 20-25 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST\r\nWITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO WILL MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND INTERACT WITH\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 HR OR SO.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO FOLLOWED\r\nBY A NORTHWESTWAR MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON\r\nTHIS...WITH THE SPREAD DECREASING SINCE THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THR GFDL AND THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODELS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL NOT READILY\r\nAPPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS IT MAY BE MASKED BY CLOUDS AND\r\nMOISTURE AT HIGHER LEVELS.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR...AFTER WHICH THEY FORECAST A GRADUAL DECREASE\r\nIN THE SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...WITH THE GFDL AND THE HRWF\r\nBOTH FORECASTING A 50 KT INTENSITY IN 24 HR.  THIS LOOKS A BIT\r\nUNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR 48 HR WHILE THE SHEAR LASTS...A FASTER\r\nDEVELOPMENT RATE FROM 48-96 HR AS THE SHEAR DECREASES...AND A\r\nWEAKENING TREND AFTER 96 HR AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN MUCH THROUGH 48 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 12.9N 107.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 13.2N 108.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.8N 109.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N 110.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.1N 111.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 19.0N 114.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N 117.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 22 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  A SMALL\r\nCLOUD SWIRL...WITH MODEST ATTENDANT CONVECTION...IS ROTATING WITHIN\r\nA MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE.  LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB CORRESPOND TO 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY...ALTHOUGH I SUSPECT THIS ESTIMATE IS A BIT GENEROUS.  \r\n\r\nWHILE THE CLOUD SWIRL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...A LONGER-TERM REPRESENTATIVE MOTION IS 285/7.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THESE TWO\r\nFEATURES WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND A\r\nLARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. \r\nAS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN AND A SLOWER...MORE NORTHWARD TRACK SHOULD DEVELOP.  WITH\r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF ONE RIGHT OUTLIER...THE GFDN...AND ONE LEFT\r\nOUTLIER...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...JUST NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE\r\nMOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE ERRATIC UNTIL THE CORE\r\nCIRCULATION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.\r\n\r\nSTRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN\r\nFORECASTING THIS SHEAR TO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. \r\nASSUMING THE SYSTEM SURVIVES...AND IT SHOULD GIVEN ITS LARGE\r\nCYCLONIC ENVELOPE...THERE WILL BE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS.  IF THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCORRECT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS BY DAY\r\n4...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.  THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREPRESENTS A BLEND OF THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 13.3N 107.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.6N 108.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.2N 109.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.9N 110.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.6N 110.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2007\r\n \r\nIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  A BANDING FEATURE IS ALSO\r\nTRYING TO FORM...WHICH IS A BIT IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE 25 KT OF\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY UNDER.  TAFB AND SAB\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 2.5 OR 35 KT.  I WAS\r\nORIGINALLY GOING TO MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE AS A DEPRESSION...BUT THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.   THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n35 KT...AND SEVEN-E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DALILA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/7.  DALILA REMAINS SOUTH OF\r\nA WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...\r\nWITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.  AS THE RIDGE AND\r\nTROUGH PROGRESS WESTWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONCURS THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND DALILA'S\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO SLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THEREAFTER...A SLIGHT ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ALIGNED WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE IN 36 TO\r\n48 HOURS...AND DALILA WILL BE IN A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BY DAY FOUR...HOWEVER...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...\r\nAND HWRF SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 13.6N 108.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N 109.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.8N 110.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.6N 110.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 111.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 22.5N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 23 2007\r\n \r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF DALILA IS\r\nEXPOSED BETWEEN TWO LARGE...BUT DISORGANIZED...CONVECTIVE MASSES. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND\r\nTHAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE CONTINUING 20-25 KT NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SO FAR THOUGH...THE LARGE SIZE OF DALILA'S\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS HELPED IT STAND UP TO THE SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF DALILA IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 315/9.  DALILA REMAINS\r\nSOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nAND ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE ECMWF HAS THE STRONGEST\r\nDEPICTION OF THE TROUGH AND THUS HAS THE SHARPEST NORTHWARD TURN\r\nAND THE MOST EASTWARD FORECAST TRACK...WHILE THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nHAS THE WEAKEST DEPICTION AND THE MOST WESTWARD FORECAST TRACK.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING DALILA OVER BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH RE-BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH\r\nAND FORCES THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. \r\nTHE TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE SHEAR WILL ABATE IN ABOUT 24\r\nHR.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THIS WOULD ALLOW DALILA TO INTENSIFY AT A\r\nFASTER RATE THAN IT HAS DONE SO FAR.  THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nFORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...WITH THE GFDL REACHING IT IN\r\n36 HR AND THE SHIPS IN 60 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR 24 HR...THEN FASTER INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KT\r\nBY 48 HR AS THE SHEAR DECREASES.  AFTER 72 HR...DALILA SHOULD MOVE\r\nOVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAKEN.  IT CANNOT BE\r\nRULED OUT THAT DALILA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...EVEN\r\nAFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES THE STORM HAS WORK TO DO TO OVERCOME ITS\r\nINTERNAL DISORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 14.8N 108.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.5N 109.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 111.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.1N 112.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT\r\nCONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A 20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE RATHER DISORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPOSED\r\nAPPROXIMATELY 35 NM NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION....AND TO THE\r\nWEST OF LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT A\r\nGENEROUS 35 KT.\r\n \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...DALILA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS...GFDL...LGEM...AND THE HWRF...WHICH INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nOF 55 KT BY DAY 3...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...WITH DALILA'S MOTION INFLUENCED BY A WEAK\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH...EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE ECMWF AND THE GFDN CONTINUE\r\nTO SUGGEST A STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS OVER\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS\r\nAROUND MID-PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE...WITH LESS\r\nEMPHASIS ON THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 1312Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 15.4N 109.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.1N 109.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N 110.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 111.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.8N 112.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF DALILA THIS\r\nEVENING.  DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER...CLOSE ENOUGH AT 00Z TO RESULT\r\nIN A T3.0...45 KT...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE THEN.  ON THE OTHER HAND...AN\r\nASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC SUGGESTED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 30\r\nKT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.\r\n\r\nDALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK AND MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/7. MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING\r\nNORTH OF DALILA NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA...ERODING THE RIDGING THAT HAD\r\nBEEN STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF SUGGEST THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD CONTINUE FOR\r\nANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF DALILA\r\nAND ENHANCES A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR DALILA TO BEGIN TO FEEL DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND CURVE BACK TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS A LITTLE LESS CLUSTERED THAN IT\r\nWAS EARLIER TODAY...AND THE GFDN NOW SHOWS A TRACK VERY NEAR THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS SLOWLY DECREASING...AND SHOULD SOON\r\nPERMIT DALILA TO STRENGTHEN.  BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO COMMENCE.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LESS\r\nAGGRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...ALL PEAKING A LITTLE BELOW THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 17.1N 109.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.1N 110.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 19.8N 111.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 24.5N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA IS\r\nBEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN.  THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW SITUATED CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER AND NEW CONVECTION IS FORMING NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT IN LINE WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nDALILA HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT\r\nA 12 HOUR AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/6.  THE\r\nOVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF DALILA\r\nNEAR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS TROUGH HAS TEMPORARILY\r\nERODED A LARGER-SCALE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO RESULTING IN A\r\nGENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH WESTWARD...TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nAFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS WITH THE CMC...ECMWF...AND GFDN INDICATING THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nCONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A SECOND\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHESE MODELS ALSO SHOW A SUSPICIOUSLY STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW A WEAKER\r\nDALILA TURNING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED\r\nWEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SECOND SCENARIO IS PREFERRED\r\nRESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS AND A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-48 HOURS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL.\r\nADDITIONALLY...DALILA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT\r\nTWO DAYS.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LITTLE CHANGED AND SO IS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 16.7N 109.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.6N 110.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.7N 110.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.6N 111.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 20.4N 112.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 22.0N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA IS\r\nCONTINUING TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE SOME CONVECTION\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF\r\nWEAKENING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT IN LINE WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR AN ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA BASED\r\nON A 0922 UTC AQUA SATELLITE PASS WHICH SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nA BIT TO THE WEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH\r\nHAS ALLOWED THE STORM TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH OF DALILA...WHICH\r\nALLOWS THE STORM TO TAKE ON A MORE WESTERLY PATH WITH TIME. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON HOW FAR WEST DALILA WILL GO. THE ECMWF AND\r\nCANADIAN SHOW THE STORM TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY PATH AS EACH OF\r\nTHOSE MODELS ALLOW DALILA TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT\r\nFIELD CAUSED BY A SECOND MID LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS...\r\nHWRF...GDFL...UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW LESS OF A WEAKNESS ALOFT AND\r\nTHEY TAKE DALILA ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE.  GIVEN THE ANOMOLOUS\r\nSTRENGTH IN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN...AND GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHOWN A TREND TO THE WEST OVER TIME...WE ARE FAVORING\r\nTHE MORE WESTERLY TRACK.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-48 HOURS...BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nIDEAL. ADDITIONALLY...DALILA WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM AND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LITTLE CHANGED AND\r\nSO IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 16.7N 110.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N 111.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 111.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 19.3N 112.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 20.1N 113.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 21.6N 116.4W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 22.5N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 23.3N 122.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BANN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DALILA \r\nCONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DESPITE MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION BEING DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KTS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nVISIBILE...IR...AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SUGGEST THAT \r\nTHE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER OF DALILA WAS NOT AS FAR WEST AS\r\nEARLIER THOUGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE\r\nTHIS MORNING...BUT DIFFERENCES REMAIN ABOUT HOW A TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH OF DALILA WILL INFLUENCE ITS TRACK.  A WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO HAS ALLOWED DALILA TO MOVE NORTH DURING THE DAY.  THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST ALLOWS THE NORTHWARD TREND TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT\r\n12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE STARTING TO CURVE THE STORM TO THE WEST IN A\r\nFASHION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.  THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STILL ALLOW FOR\r\nA MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SECOND\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA.  THE WAY THE\r\nGFS AND GFDL HANDLE THIS SECOND TROUGH IS PREFERRED OVER THE\r\nECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AROUND 16 KNOTS OR SO...BUT IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE TO AROUND 5 OT 6 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48\r\nHOURS.  GIVEN THE DECREASING SHEAR...WE WOULD EXPECT THE STORM WILL\r\nBE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 60 KTS BY 36 HOURS.  THE STORM\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AFTER THAT ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 17.3N 110.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 18.2N 110.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 19.0N 111.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 19.8N 112.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 113.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.8N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 22.8N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 23.6N 122.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\n\r\nFORECASTER BANN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 24 2007\r\n \r\nOVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DALILA'S CONVECTION HAS ACQUIRED A MORE\r\nBANDED APPEARANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS...\r\nALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING A LITTLE OF LATE.  THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 3.0...OR 45 KT...WHILE THE\r\nCIMSS ADT GAVE ABOUT 50 KT.  GIVEN THIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 50 KT.  A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE IS DUE SHORTLY\r\nAFTER ADVISORY TIME THAT MIGHT HELP WITH THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES AROUND 01Z INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS\r\nMOVED OUT AHEAD OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n330/6. MODEL FIELDS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST A SMALL\r\nINVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND 18Z UKMET...SUGGESTS THAT THIS TROUGH\r\nCOULD INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN DALILA TOWARED THE NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. AT THE PRESENT TIME...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A TRACK ANY CLOSER THAN ABOUT 150 NM TO THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO REFLECT MORE OF\r\nAN INTERACTION WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE BANDING STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED TODAY...DALILA IS STILL\r\nHAVING DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED.  HOWEVER...\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS NOW REPLACED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSTORM...AND DALILA STILL HAS ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO OF WARM WATER\r\nAHEAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF\r\nGUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AND CALLS\r\nFOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 18.2N 110.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.1N 110.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 20.0N 111.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 20.7N 112.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 21.4N 113.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N 123.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA APPEARS A LITTLE\r\nLESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS\r\nBROKEN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS IN\r\nTHE 45-50 KT RANGE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA.   \r\n \r\nDALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 330/7. THIS MOTION APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF\r\nWEAKNESS WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS WEAKNESS\r\nWILL ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO EXPAND\r\nWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST.  THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND GFDN\r\nMODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT.  MOST OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS NOW INDICATE A TURN\r\nWESTWARD...AND SOME EVEN SHOW A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST\r\nBEYOND DAY 4.  \r\n \r\nDESPITE AN OTHERWISE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...DALILA\r\nAPPEARS TO BE FEELING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF STABLE AIR.  DALILA\r\nMAY BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  STILL...THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nANOTHER DAY OR SO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM\r\nWATER.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION QUICKLY SHUTS BEYOND 36 HOURS AS DALILA IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF\r\nA BIT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE LOWER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 19.0N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N 111.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 20.6N 112.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SINCE YESTERDAY AND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NORTHERN HALF IS ALREADY\r\nFEELING THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS WHICH PREVAIL NORTH OF 20\r\nNORTH. IN FACT...LATEST SST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER THAN\r\nNORMAL WATERS IN THAT REGION.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED\r\nTO 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...DALILA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO HAVE A LARGE PORTION OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION HAVE GREATLY\r\nDIMINISHED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nAS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nDALILA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE\r\nBUILDS WESTWARD AND DALILA BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TURN\r\nMORE TO THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN\r\nSHOWING THE WESTWARD TURN.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 19.7N 111.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 20.6N 112.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 22.3N 115.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007\r\n \r\nDALILA IS WINDING DOWN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE SSTS BENEATH DALILA'S CENTER ARE ABOUT 27.5C...THE\r\nSTRONG GRADIENT OF SST JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS\r\nALLOWING DRY STABLE AIR TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN\r\nSEMI-CIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION.  A BLEND OF THE T AND CI\r\nDVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\n \r\nDALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT...DUE TO\r\nTHE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. AS IT SPINS DOWN OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED OFF TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDALILA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND WILL CROSS THE\r\n26C SST ISOTHERM. ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FIZZLE AT\r\nTHAT POINT AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT TWO\r\nDAYS. THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE. DALILA MIGHT NOT BE AN IDENTIFIABLE LOW BY DAY 5...BUT A\r\nPOSITION IS GIVEN JUST IN CASE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 20.1N 112.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 20.8N 113.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 21.7N 114.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 22.3N 116.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 23.0N 117.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 25 2007\r\n \r\nDALILA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...BOTH IN BANDS SOUTH\r\nOF THE CENTER AND NOW OVER THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 18Z WAS\r\nPARTIALLY BLANKED OUT...BUT WAS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSITY OF AT\r\nLEAST 40 KT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 45\r\nKT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT GIVES 37 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 40 KT BUT MIGHT BE A SHADE LOW. REGARDLESS...DALILA WILL BE\r\nCROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7.  RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE DECAYING CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD IN\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AFTER THAT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH DOES NOT\r\nTAKE THE DECAYING CYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 20.4N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 21.1N 113.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 115.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 22.8N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 23.5N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 24.0N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007\r\n \r\nDALILA IS NOT DONE YET. WHILE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE HAS DISSIPATED...NEW CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT 45 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT HAS INCHED UPWARDS TO 41 KT.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE SO THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED SOLELY ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES. DALILA'S 11TH HOUR HEROICS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE ANTICIPATED\r\nTRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A\r\nGRADUAL SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nDALILA IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 310/8.  DEEP CONVECTION\r\nSHOULD FIZZLE LATER TODAY AND THE DECAYING CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 20.9N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 21.6N 114.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 22.5N 115.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 23.3N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 23.9N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 24.5N 121.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007\r\n \r\nDALILA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF\r\nTHE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOW LIMITED TO WITHIN\r\n125 NMI OF THE CENTER...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nA BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 40 KT OR\r\nA BIT LOWER...WHILE THE ADT ANALYSIS GIVES ABOUT 45 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT.  DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nDECAYING AS IT HEADS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IT MAY\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT\r\nBASED UPON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...TWO MICROWAVE PASSES\r\nLAST NIGHT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE PICTURE THIS MORNING.  DALILA WILL\r\nLIKELY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS IT\r\nBECOMES STEERED BY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST UTILIZES THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nHIGH SURF REPORTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET HIGHER THAN USUAL ALONG EXTREME\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY. \r\nDANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE DAY TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 22.0N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.6N 115.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 23.4N 116.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N 119.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 25.0N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 25.0N 123.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2007\r\n \r\nDALILA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AS IT MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATER. THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nBUT THE TOPS ARE WARMING FAST. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1330 UTC EARLIER\r\nTODAY SUGGESTED THAT THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA WERE 45\r\nKNOTS...A LITTLE BIT STRONGER THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40\r\nKNOTS ESTIMATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...SINCE THEN\r\nDALILA HAS WEAKENED...AND AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS A GOOD ESTIMATE. DALILA'S CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE OVER 22 TO 23 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS SOON...SO A CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED. DALILA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nAS EARLY AS TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. BECAUSE DALILA IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING A SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE WEST BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 22.2N 115.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 22.8N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 23.3N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 24.5N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":21,"Date":"2007-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 26 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS DALILA\r\nMOVES OVER 24C WATER...WITH SOME DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS BEGINNING TO BE EVIDENT.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT 30 TO 35 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT.  A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nOVER COLD WATER IS EXPECTED...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS LIKELY WITHIN\r\n24-36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nHWRF AND GFDL...BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE\r\nDECAYING CONVECTION AND COLD WATER AHEAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSER TO THE ECMWF AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE...AND JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 22.6N 116.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 23.2N 117.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 23.8N 119.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 24.2N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 24.5N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":22,"Date":"2007-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007\r\n \r\nALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA HAS DISSIPATED AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SKELETON OF ITS FORMER SELF.  AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT AROUND 0200 UTC INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE\r\n30-35 KT RANGE.  GIVEN THE PRESENT TREND IN CONVECTION...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT THE LOWER END OF THIS RANGE WHICH IS\r\nALSO CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  REGENERATION IS\r\nNOT EXPECTED GIVEN THE COLD WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND\r\nDALILA WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY\r\nDISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. DALILA IS ESSENTIALLY MOVING\r\nALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE\r\nREQUIRED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 22.9N 117.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 23.3N 118.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 23.8N 120.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 24.2N 121.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 24.3N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":23,"Date":"2007-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP072007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSU-B MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR\r\nAT LEAST 12 HOURS.  NO INTERMITTENT CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE\r\nMATERIALIZED SINCE LAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT OVERPASS...WHICH DEPICTED\r\nA VERY SMALL PATCH OF 30 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. \r\nASSUMING A GRADUAL SPINDOWN OF THE VORTEX SINCE THAT PASS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE WEAKENING AS A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/9.  DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC HIGH\r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA.  FOR\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 23.1N 117.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 23.6N 119.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 24.0N 120.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 24.2N 122.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 24.2N 124.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007\r\n \r\nSHEARED BUT STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 12 HR NEAR AND\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 1125 MILES\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WITH\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/12.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODEL SHOW A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION...ALBEIT A RIDGE WITH A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGHING TO ITS NORTH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nTHROUGH 120 HR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nOR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SPEED A SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.  NHC\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS...\r\nWHICH MERGES THE DEPRESSION WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE FORMING TO THE\r\nEAST.  WHILE THERE IS A BROAD DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION...\r\nIT CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH FOR\r\nTHE NOGAPS TO VERIFY.  THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20\r\nKT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE GFS...THE ECMWF...AND THE NOGAPS\r\nFORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN LESS THAN 24 HR...WHILE THE\r\nCANADIAN AND THE UKMET FORECAST HOSTILE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME.  FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE\r\nTOWARD THE CANADIAN/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nAFTER 24 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT\r\nSURVIVE THE FIRST 24 HR DUE TO THE SHEAR AND DRY AIR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 13.3N 123.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 13.6N 125.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 13.9N 127.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.1N 129.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 14.1N 132.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 14.0N 136.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 140.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 144.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 31 2007\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INSIST THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS A TROPICAL STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS. \r\nHOWEVER...ERICK IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nVERY DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.   THIS PATTERN WOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING ONLY AS INDICATED BY SHIPS. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. A STRONG\r\nELONGATED EAST-WEST MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STAY ANCHORED\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 5 DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ERICK\r\nON A WESTWARD TRACK TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nBOTH HWRF AND GFDL KEEP ERICK ON A WESTWARD PATH AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 13.1N 124.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 125.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 13.5N 128.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 130.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 13.5N 136.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 13.5N 140.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N 144.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS PROBABLY STILL NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nMAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\n35 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS...WITH A LACK OF BANDING FEATURES...\r\nWHICH IS TYPICAL OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ERICK CONTINUES TO\r\nBE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE.  DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS\r\nBUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIS CALLED FOR...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nBELOW THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DO NOT INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER LOCATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...IT IS ESTIMATED\r\nTHAT THE STORM IS CONTINUING A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND 9\r\nKT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF ERICK\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHEREFORE THE CURRENT MOTION IS LIKELY TO MORE OR LESS BE\r\nMAINTAINED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT FASTER THAN\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 13.0N 125.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 13.1N 126.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 13.2N 128.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 13.3N 130.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 132.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N 136.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 13.5N 139.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 13.5N 143.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 01 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS\r\nINDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL\r\nORGANIZATION OR STRUCTURE OF ERICK.  STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION \r\nLOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES IS 35 KT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. \r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY FALLING\r\nAND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS LESS THAN IDEAL. \r\nTHEREFORE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT ERICK IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS\r\n275/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERICK IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nTHE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH LATEST TRACK MODEL TRENDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 13.2N 126.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.3N 127.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 129.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N 130.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 13.9N 132.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 14.0N 136.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 14.0N 139.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 14.0N 142.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS TAKING ITS TOLL ON ERICK...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW\r\nALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAKENING BLOB\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  WHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SUGGESTIVE OF\r\nA WEAKENING CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD\r\nAT 35 KT TO SEE IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND PERSISTS. GIVEN THE\r\nCYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 28C...SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nREMAINS POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES.  HOWEVER...SSTS START\r\nAPPROACHING 26C IN 48 HOURS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS MARGINAL. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT ANY STRENGTHENING THAT DOES\r\nOCCUR WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING.  \r\n \r\nBASED ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nMOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nABOUT 285/9. ASSUMING THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL\r\nDEPTH...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nTHE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO TREND NORTHWARD AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nTHAT INDICATES TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 13.6N 127.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.9N 130.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 14.2N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 14.4N 133.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 14.7N 136.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N 139.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 01 2007\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF ERICK IN BOTH\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED AND LESS DEFINED.  HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nCLEARLY EVIDENT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF REFORMATION OCCURS IN\r\nTHAT AREA. \r\n \r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR COULD RELAX DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nDEVELOPMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. \r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO BUT WITH VARYING\r\nFORWARD SPEEDS.  THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER CYCLONE DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF ERICK. \r\nTHIS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE UNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nBUT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 13.4N 128.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.6N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.9N 131.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.1N 133.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.4N 135.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 14.8N 138.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 14.9N 142.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 146.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007\r\n\r\nLOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERICK HAS BEEN QUITE A\r\nCHALLENGE EARLY THIS MORNING.  ANALYSIS OF A 0249 UTC QSCT PASS\r\nESTIMATED A CENTER ALIGNED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...\r\nWHILE AN AMSU-B PASS FROM 0624 UTC DEPICTED A POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  CONVENTIONAL INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVEN\r\nFARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE REFORMING IN THIS AREA...HOWEVER...I\r\nAM HESITATE TO MAKE SUCH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITHOUT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY OR OTHER MORE CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE.\r\n\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT\r\nFROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35 KT DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION AS WELL AS A DECREASE IN\r\nCONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. IF\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE IN ORGANIZATION...THEN LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR.  ON THE OTHER HAND IF REFORMATION\r\nOCCURS...A SLIGHTLY LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND 26-27C WATERS\r\nWOULD HELP THE CYCLONE INTENSIFY BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS\r\nIN 3 OR SO DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY\r\nWITH THE SHIPS...SUPERENSEMBLE...AND PREVIOUS FORECAST.      \r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12.  ERICK IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AS WITH THE EARLIER MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...THE GREATEST VARIATION IS WITH THE FORWARD MOTION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND UKMET\r\nSOLUTIONS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 13.3N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.4N 131.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 133.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N 135.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 14.2N 137.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 141.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erick","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 02 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  IN FACT...VERY FEW NORTHERLY VECTORS IN\r\nLAST NIGHT'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE\r\nAN OPEN WAVE.  THE ONLY CONCERN IS THAT THERE MAY BE A NEW CENTER\r\nFORMING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CURRENT POSITION BENEATH A MID-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION ALONG THE ITCZ.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AND 2.5\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONALLY...A 0438Z SSMI/S\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 0538Z ASCAT OVERPASS INTERPRETATION OF\r\nSEVERE VERTICAL DECOUPLING SUPPORT LOWERING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH.    \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT CONDITION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITH\r\nTHE MODELS SUGGESTING THAT THE 10 TO 15 KT UPPER NORTHERLIES SHOULD\r\nPERSIST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED TO REFLECT DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nPERIOD.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW AS IT PROGRESSES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER DOES REFORM CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION...\r\nRESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM COULD OCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/9 WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT OF\r\nABOUT 40 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ERICK SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 13.6N 130.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N 131.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 13.9N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 14.2N 135.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 14.3N 137.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 142.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 14.5N 145.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 14.5N 149.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erick","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP082007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082007\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 02 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN SSMI MICROWAVE WIND OVERPASS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERICK.  THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGE...WHICH SUGGESTS A HINT OF A SWIRL JUST NORTH OF A MORE\r\nDOMINANT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nINTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 13.6N 131.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007\r\n\r\nTHE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MONITORED FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nDAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT TWO...ALBEIT RAGGED...HOOKING BANDS.  BASED\r\nON AN ANALYSIS OF QUIKSCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS ONLY ABOUT 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...\r\nLGEM...AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  SHOULD THE CYCLONE MOVE MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE NHC FORECAST TRACK...STRENGTHENING IS UNLIKELY DUE TO\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING MAINLY WESTWARD AND CURRENT MOTION IS\r\nABOUT 270/10.  NINE-E IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE...SO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST IN 4-5\r\nDAYS.  THE NHC TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE HWRF MODEL\r\nAND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 13.7N 126.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 13.7N 128.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.6N 130.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 13.5N 135.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 14.0N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT.  BASED ON THIS\r\nDATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.  FLOSSIE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENT FLOW\r\nALOFT...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  FOR\r\nNOW...SSTS ARE PLENTY WARM WITH CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES AROUND\r\n28C.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STABLE AIR...AS EVIDENCED BY THE PRESENCE\r\nOF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD INHIBIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  INDEED THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS ARE DIVERGENT\r\nWITH PEAK INTENSITIES RANGING FROM 48 KT TO 75 KT.  DESPITE THE\r\nSPREAD AMONGST THE GUIDANCE...ALL BUT THE HWRF HAVE TRENDED UPWARD. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS BUT BELOW THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE...BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nFLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/12. THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM IS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS APPROACHES THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 13.4N 128.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 13.2N 130.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 13.2N 132.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 13.2N 134.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 13.3N 136.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 13.9N 140.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 149.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE SUGGESTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OCEAN IS\r\nWARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\nFLOSSIE COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO...AS INDICATED\r\nBY SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INCLUDING CLIMATOLOGY. BEYOND\r\n3 DAYS...FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS RESULTING\r\nIN GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.\r\nBECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT DEEP-LAYER\r\nEASTERLY FLOW...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO WEST-NORTHWEST IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS KEEP FLOSSY MOVING ON A GENERAL STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK\r\nWITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BEYOND 3 DAYS AND SO\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 13.2N 129.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 13.3N 131.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 13.3N 133.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 14.0N 142.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 14.5N 146.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 150.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2007\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH FLOSSIE HAS DECREASED\r\nSOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING\r\nWELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A\r\nSEPARATE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE PRESUMED CENTER. \r\nGOOD OUTFLOW IS EVIDENT IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE EAST.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 KT...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT. \r\n\r\nFLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 27C-PLUS WATERS FOR ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.  GIVEN THE PRESENT BANDING STRUCTURE AND GOOD OUTFLOW...\r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL\r\nMODELS ALL FORECAST FLOSSIE TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DECREASE BUT NOT\r\nRAPIDLY...AND THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN\r\nCOULD PERSIST EVEN AFTER SSTS BEGIN TO COOL.  THIS ARGUES FOR A\r\nRELATIVE SLOW WEAKENING TREND DURING DAYS 3-5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 265/12.  FLOSSIE IS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENOUGH\r\nRIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM INTERACTING\r\nMUCH WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 135W.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE OFFERS TWO BASIC SCENARIOS.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS\r\nMAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONG SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK...WHILE THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE IN\r\nA DAY OR TWO AND TAKE IT MORE RAPIDLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  ASSUMING FLOSSIE DEVELOPS AS EXPECTED...THE FORMER SCENARIO\r\nSEEMS MORE REASONABLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 13.0N 130.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 12.9N 132.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 13.1N 135.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 13.3N 137.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 14.0N 143.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 147.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 151.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2007\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A FORMATIVE\r\nEYE APPARENT IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 KT...AND A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE CLOSE\r\nTO OR JUST BELOW THE CONCURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/13...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  FLOSSIE\r\nWILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH COULD SLOW THE FORWARD MOTION A\r\nBIT...BUT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF FLOSSIE IS UNLIKELY TO INTERACT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH THIS WEAKNESS.  AFTER THAT...A NARROW MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS LARGELY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH HAS\r\nSHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS.  AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nTRACK...FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH...IS OFFERED BY THE\r\nNOGAPS...ECMWF...AND FSSE.\r\n\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY. \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST BUT LOOKS GOOD\r\nELSEWHERE.  SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK WILL REMAIN ABOVE 27C\r\nFOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW PATTERN DOES NOT\r\nSEEM IDEAL...HOWEVER...WITH A STABLE AIR MASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nSEEMINGLY RUNNING AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  MOST...BUT NOT ALL THE\r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MAKES FLOSSIE A HURRICANE.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  HOW FAST\r\nFLOSSIE DECLINES NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE\r\nGOVERNED BY THE UPPER FLOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE VERY\r\nDIFFERENTLY BY THE VARIOUS LARGE-SCALE MODELS.  THE GFS MAINTAINS A\r\nRELATIVELY FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nHAVE MUCH HIGHER SHEAR.  IT'S DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH SCENARIO WILL\r\nVERIFY...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS POINT CONSERVATIVELY\r\nASSUMES THAT THE UPPER FLOW WILL NOT BECOME VERY HOSTILE. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 12.8N 132.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 12.8N 134.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 13.0N 136.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 13.3N 138.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 13.6N 140.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 14.5N 144.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 153.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nORGANIZATION WITH OCCASIONAL GLIMPSES OF A FORMATIVE EYE AND AN\r\nEYEWALL FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55 KT...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBECOME COMPLICATED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW NOW APPROACHING FLOSSIE FROM THE EAST.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE UNDERESTIMATING THIS FLOW POSSIBLY LEADING TO AN\r\nOPTIMISTIC SHEAR FORECAST.  ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT COULD RESULT IF \r\nTHIS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW CATCHES THE CYCLONE...AND FLOSSIE COULD\r\nCURRENTLY BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  TO MAINTAIN SOME\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nALLOWS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT...AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FLOSSIE COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nEUROPEAN AND UKMET MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS NOT SHOWN IN THE GFS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. \r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO RESULTING IN A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST OR 265/13.   FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NARROW\r\nRIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY\r\nSPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS BASED ON THE EVENTUAL DEPTH AND STEERING OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE NOGAPS AND EUROPEAN MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH SHOW A\r\nWEAK VORTEX...LIE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW FLOSSIE BECOMING\r\nA HURRICANE...LIE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nWHILE THE PRESENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MAKE IT IS TEMPTING\r\nTO LEAN TOWARDS THE WEAKER NOGAPS/EUROPEAN SOLUTION...IT IS TOO\r\nSOON TO MAKE SUCH A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 12.6N 133.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 12.7N 135.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 13.0N 137.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 13.4N 139.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 13.8N 141.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 14.5N 146.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 150.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N 155.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007\r\n \r\nBOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nOVERALL STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE HAS REMAINED ALMOST THE SAME. \r\nFLOSSIE SHOWS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT EAST OF \r\nTHE CENTER WHERE THE OUTFLOW WAS PREVIOUSLY RESTRICTED.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE HELD AT 55\r\nKT...AND THIS CORRESPONDS TO THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY AS\r\nWELL.  \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST...\r\n270/12...IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS PATTERN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST...WITH A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPING AROUND 140W IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FLOSSIE WILL\r\nREMAIN SOUTH ENOUGH TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH\r\nFIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS...\r\nEXCEPT SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS BETWEEN 26C-27C AND UNDER\r\nMODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nSHIPS... HWRF...AND SUPER-ENSEMBLE HAVE BACKED OFF ON INTENSIFYING\r\nFLOSSIE TO A HURRICANE...AND THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BARELY\r\nREACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND ALLOWS FOR ONLY SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT RESULTING IN\r\nFLOSSIE TO WEAKEN A BIT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED HOWEVER...THAT THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR FLOSSIE TO STILL BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 12.6N 134.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 12.7N 136.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 13.0N 139.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 13.4N 141.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 13.7N 143.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 14.5N 147.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 152.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 157.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE.  AN EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT\r\nIN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED GOES IMAGERY...AND IN A\r\nRECENT TRMM OVERPASS.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN CONTINUES TO\r\nIMPROVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE... BUT\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION IS RESTRICTED A BIT.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...ON THE LOWER END OF THE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES SINCE THE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT\r\nSINCE 12Z.\r\n \r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE\r\nFLOSSIE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 27 CELSIUS.  SSTS ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK DECLINE THEREAFTER...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST BEYOND 36-48 HOURS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY INDICATED BY THE EUROPEAN MODEL...AND\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE A CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY TREND...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS...ICON...SUPER-ENSEMBLE...AND THE LGE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE IS MOVING AT 275/12...WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AROUND A\r\nRIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  THE MAJORITY OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A PERSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...SOUTH\r\nOF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE GFDL...\r\nHOWEVER...INDICATES A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH PLACES THE SYSTEM JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG\r\nISLAND ON DAY 5.  ALTHOUGH THE GFDL SOLUTION CANNOT BE RULED\r\nOUT...LESS EMPHASIS IS PLACED ON IT FOR NOW...BECAUSE A RIGHT OF\r\nTRACK BIAS HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED IN PREVIOUS GFDL FORECASTS FOR\r\nFLOSSIE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAFTER THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 12.7N 136.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 12.8N 137.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 13.1N 140.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 13.5N 142.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 13.9N 144.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N 149.7W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 159.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-08-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST SEVERAL VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY REVEAL AN INCREASINGLY\r\nDISTINCT EYE...DECENT OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THAT\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN DEEPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WHERE IT\r\nHAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN A BIT THIN.  AN SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1714Z ALSO\r\nDEPICTS A SOLID AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL WRAPPING ESSENTIALLY ALL THE\r\nWAY AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75 KT.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1525Z COULD NOT\r\nRESOLVE ANY HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...BUT IT DID CONFIRM THAT\r\nFLOSSIE'S OVERALL WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY SMALL...WITH WINDS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE EXTENDING NO FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN\r\nABOUT 60 N MI.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE CONTINUES DUE WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KT...WITH\r\nSTEERING PROVIDED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  ALL OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS ENOUGH RIDGING TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FLOSSIE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS TO FORCE THE SYSTEM GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD.  NOTABLE\r\nDIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE MODELS...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY IN THE\r\nFUTURE LATITUDE OF FLOSSIE.  THE HWRF IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER BUT\r\nSEEMS TO TAKE THE CYCLONE TOO FAR NORTH EVEN EARLY ON IN THE\r\nFORECAST.  MEANWHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE MUCH FARTHER\r\nSOUTH...ON THE OTHER EXTREME OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NAVY\r\nMODELS...GFS...AND THE CONSENSUS ARE ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE.  GIVEN\r\nTHE SIGNIFICANT MODEL SPREAD...AND THAT THE CONSENSUS IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN\r\nMADE IN THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n \r\nOCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE\r\nMORE INTENSIFICATION.  SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK SHOULD REMAIN AT LEAST 27C FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS...WITHIN A\r\nCONTINUED WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT\r\n85 KT IN 24 HOURS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE WATERS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL BENEATH FLOSSIE BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS...AND SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nTO START INCREASING IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  AS A RESULT...FLOSSIE IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ON DAYS TWO AND THREE...FOLLOWED BY MORE\r\nWEAKENING AS A TROPICAL STORM LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NONE OF\r\nTHE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS FLOSSIE TO BE A\r\nHURRICANE BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 12.6N 137.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 12.7N 139.0W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 13.1N 141.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 13.6N 143.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 14.1N 146.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 150.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 155.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N 159.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-08-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2007\r\n \r\nWHILE FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE VIGOR...THE EYE IS NOW A\r\nBIT RAGGED.  STILL...THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A\r\nLITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nFLOSSIE WILL REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS\r\nCOOLER WATER AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  THERE IS SOME\r\nDIFFERENCE IN THE HOW THE GLOBAL MODELS RESOLVE THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nEVENTUAL IMPACT OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPER ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH\r\nWITH AN ALMOST DUE WESTWARD MOTION OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KT.\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH SOME RUN TO RUN\r\nINCONSISTENCY.  THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SOUTH WHILE THE NOGAPS HAS\r\nSHIFTED NORTH.   THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS TRACK\r\nMODELS IS THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE\r\nEVENTUAL STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO\r\nLIE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT IT SHOWS\r\nFLOSSIE MAINTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS\r\nDESPITE ITS TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS.  ADDITIONALLY...THE GFDL HAS\r\nCONSISTENTLY DEMONSTRATED A NORTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM.  THE\r\nEUROPEAN MODEL CONTINUES TO LIE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE BUT IT SHOWS FLOSSIE SHEARING APART AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  IT\r\nIS MUCH TOO SOON TO DECIDE WHICH OF THESE TWO SCENARIOS IS MOST\r\nLIKELY SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT A LITTLE SLOWER BEYOND DAY 3.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 12.7N 138.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 12.9N 140.0W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 13.4N 142.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 13.9N 144.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 146.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 15.5N 151.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 155.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 159.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-08-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2007\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS UNDERGONE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT.  INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A 15 N MI-WIDE\r\nCLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS AROUND -75C.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5/102\r\nKT...AND 6-HR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE RUNNING AROUND\r\n102 KT AS WELL.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN RAISED TO 100 KT...AND FLOSSIE IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE\r\nHURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.\r\n \r\nFOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN\r\n10 KT AND SSTS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 26C.  WITH THAT SAID...SOME\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...POSSIBLY EVEN MORE THAN\r\nFORECAST...HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSSE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAK\r\nFLOSSIE AROUND 100 KT.  AFTER TWO OR SO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nIMPACT OF THE INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST\r\nVARIES FROM EACH OF THE MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE WHICH HAVE A MORE ACCURATE\r\nINITIALIZATION.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WESTWARD...270/12...UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE OVERALL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  THEREAFTER\r\nTHE MODELS DIVERGE...THE NOGAPS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS TAKE A STRONGER\r\nSYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST WHILE THE UKMET...GFS...AND HWRF GUIDANCE\r\nMAINTAIN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A\r\nRESULT OF A MORE WEAKENED SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AS WELL AS THE FSSE MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLOSSIE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 12.6N 139.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 12.9N 141.1W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 13.8N 145.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 148.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.5N 152.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 156.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Flossie","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP092007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2007\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH A MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC AND SOLID RING OF EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS NEAR -75C AROUND\r\n12Z.  ACCORDINGLY...SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT THAT TIME WERE A CONSENSUS T6.0 OR 115 KT...AND THAT\r\nIS THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. AN OVERPASS BY AMSR-E AT 1050Z REVEALS A\r\nSINGLE EYEWALL AND NO APPARENT SIGNS OF ANY IMPENDING INNER CORE\r\nSTRUCTURAL CHANGES. SINCE 12Z THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nHAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nREACHED AN INTENSITY PLATEAU. THE UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE COOLER FROM THIS\r\nPOINT FORWARD...WHILE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WIND SHEAR WILL\r\nBEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR FLOSSIE TO START GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER TODAY...WITH\r\nTHE PACE OF DECLINE PICKING UP WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES ON DAY 3.\r\nTHIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS. EXCEPT FOR THE FSSE...ALL OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS FLOSSIE TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES DUE WESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nSLIGHTLY WOBBLY 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  WE CAN SAY FOR SURE NOW\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS CROSSED 140 DEGREES WEST INTO\r\nTHE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN.  ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY AND REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE...\r\nHOWEVER...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE EVENTUAL\r\nTRACK HINGES LARGELY ON JUST HOW STRONG THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF FLOSSIE IN A FEW DAYS.  MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER HAWAII TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A TRACK THAT BENDS EVER SO GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT. \r\nTHE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HOLD ONTO ENOUGH RIDGING TO KEEP THE\r\nCENTER OF A WEAKENING FLOSSIE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...\r\nALTHOUGH A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON FLOSSIE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 12.7N 140.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 12.9N 141.8W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.3N 143.9W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 13.7N 146.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 14.1N 148.1W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.5N 152.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 156.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 160.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED\r\nBANDING FEATURES ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATION OF 2.0...30 KT...WAS RECEIVED FROM TAFB\r\nAND SHIP ZQCP3 ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1002.6 MB. DATA FROM THE\r\nMEXICAN NAVY SITE AT SOCORRO ISLAND HELPED TO DETERMINE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...WE EXPECT THE SYSTEM\r\nTO BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT JUST A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A LARGE\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS STEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nMOVE MORE TO THE WEST WITH TIME AWAY FROM MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 19.4N 109.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.8N 110.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N 112.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 20.5N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE DAY.\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE INTENSE...THOUGH RECENTLY HAS WANED\r\nA BIT. MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM MASS. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY...BUT AMSU AND LOCAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GIL...THE\r\nSEVENTH STORM IN A RATHER QUIET EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. A\r\nLITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE STORM MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF THE STORM HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE...NOW\r\nESTIMATED AT 285/10.  THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WOULD FORCE A MOTION MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 19.7N 110.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N 112.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.2N 118.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 122.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GIL\r\nHAS NOT STRENGTHENED. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE IMPLYING A POORLY ORGANIZED CYCLONE. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY. GIL IS LOCATED WITHIN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONSISTING OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR\r\nMASS.  ADDITIONALLY...THERE ARE COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING AND GIL IS LIKELY\r\nAT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS\r\nFOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM ENTERS THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM. THEREAFTER...\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH GIL DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3\r\nDAYS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\n \r\nGIL APPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n270/12. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL\r\nDEPTH. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS\r\nIN CLOSEST AGREEMENT THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 19.6N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 113.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 19.9N 115.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 19.8N 118.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.6N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GIL HAS BEEN RATHER \r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.  BASED ON INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AS WELL AS A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI AND\r\nAMSU-B...THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTH-\r\nEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD\r\nTOPS AROUND -80C.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nGIL IS CURRENTLY UNDER ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  WHILE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM BETWEEN 26C\r\nAND 27C...MODERATE SHEAR COMBINED WITH A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS\r\nSHOULD INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...\r\nGFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nGIL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AROUND 270/11.  A STRONG MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nSHOULD STEER GIL ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST...GIL SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS AND FOLLOWS\r\nCLOSELY WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 19.4N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.4N 114.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 19.4N 116.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2007\r\n \r\nTIMELY AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER\r\nOF GIL THIS MORNING...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nBUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED. EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE PREVENTED ANY INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 35 KT...BUT GIL COULD ALREADY BE ON A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE STORM AND GIL'S BEST DAY IS PROBABLY\r\nBEHIND IT.  SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...THOUGH THE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT GIL HAS MOVED A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST\r\nOVERNIGHT AT A SLOWER PACE...260/8.  THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS HIGH PRESSURE\r\nCONTINUES TO THE NORTH OF GIL.  THEREAFTER...A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD OCCUR AS GIL REACHES THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  A 96-HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS GIVEN DUE TO THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS HOLDING ONTO THE REMNANTS OF GIL FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 19.0N 113.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 18.9N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.7N 116.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 118.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N 121.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 125.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL CAA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED STORM NAME DEAN REFERENCE IN PARAGRAPH ONE TO GIL\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GIL CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING\r\nSUGGESTS THAT GIL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER\r\nESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A STABLE AIR\r\nMASS.  THESE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY BALANCE...AND LITTLE\r\nOVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL GIL MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS IN A COUPLE DAYS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY\r\nSTRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...GIL WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND\r\nA TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nBACK TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATER AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 19.2N 114.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 19.0N 115.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.9N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.8N 120.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 18.8N 122.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL REMAINS BENEATH THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE MOST\r\nRECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE -80C CLOUD TOP CANOPY IS\r\nEXPANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nIT IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY WHETHER OR NOT THE UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...INDICATIVE BY THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...WILL OUTWEIGH THE\r\nEXPECTED DIMINISHING VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE\r\nGFDL AND THE SHIPS MAINTAIN A 40 TO 50 KT SYSTEM THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...ICON...AND THE LGEM INDICATE A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE LATTER INTENSITY\r\nMODELS SEEM MORE REASONABLE...ESPECIALLY SINCE GIL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATERS IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...INDICATING LITTLE CHANGE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nEXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...265/9...AS WELL AS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GIL ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE RIDGE.  BEYOND 96 HOURS...AS GIL WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS...THE LOW LAYER EASTERLIES SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK\r\nTO THE WEST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 19.1N 115.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 18.9N 116.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.9N 118.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.9N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.2N 123.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 19.9N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 131.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ONCE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM SSMI-S AND AMSU-B DEPICTED AN\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTION...RESULTING FROM THE 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR THE CYCLONE\r\nIS STILL EXPERIENCING. BASED ON THE ABOVE AS WELL AS 35 KT DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AND\r\nTHE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 26C FOR THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS OR SO.  WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WOULD PROMOTE STRENGTHENING\r\nIN THE NEAR TERM...GIL IS MOVING INTO A RATHER STABLE ENVIRONMENT. \r\nHOW MUCH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR SEPARATES THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE PRIMARY CONVECTION WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG GIL\r\nWILL TAKE TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW. BOTH SHIPS AND FSSE\r\nMAINTAIN GIL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...\r\nWHILE THE GFDL TAKES GIL CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS.  BASED ON THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE THE GFDL\r\nSOLUTION APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN SHIPS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...265/9...IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  GIL SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  ONCE GIL WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS...IT WILL LIKELY BE STEERED BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 19.0N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.9N 117.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.2N 122.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.7N 124.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.5N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 132.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 20.5N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GIL IS EXHIBITING A STRONG\r\nDIURNAL CYCLE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. AFTER DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY\r\nDISAPPEARED BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...MOST RECENT IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nANOTHER BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER. A TRMM\r\nMICROWAVE PASS AT 1117Z INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF GIL\r\nSTILL REMAINS DISPLACED EAST OF THE CONVECTION...A RESULT OF\r\nPERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL EASTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAIN AT 35 KT...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 31/0154Z SHOWED A SMALL AREA\r\nOF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AROUND THE CENTER...AND WAS USED TO\r\nFORMULATE THE WIND RADII ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AFFECTING THE INTENSITY OF GIL ARE NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT...BUT SHOULD STILL PREVENT\r\nPERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTER FOR ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME. THE FORECAST TRACK NEARLY PARALLELS THE\r\n27C SST ISOTHERM...SO OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A NEUTRAL\r\nINFLUENCE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. GIL IS ENTRAINING STABLE STRATOCUMULUS\r\nAIR FROM ITS NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE INTO ITS CORE...WHICH IN TURN\r\nWILL PROBABLY KEEP A LID ON ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. ALL INDICATIONS\r\nARE THAT GIL WILL MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY\r\nOVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER THAN SHIPS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/9 IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nVERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST POSITIONS IS\r\nFAIRLY HIGH. GIL WILL CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT\r\nNEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTHEAST. THE GFS MODEL IS SHOWING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN 130W AND 140W IN THE 72-96 HOUR TIME FRAME...BUT NONE\r\nOF THE FORECAST AIDS ARE HINTING AT A RECURVATURE TRACK. ONCE GIL\r\nWEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS...IT WILL BE STEERED\r\nBACK TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND\r\nPROBABLY NOT FEEL THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AT LONG-RANGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 19.1N 117.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.2N 119.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.4N 121.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 123.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 20.4N 125.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.7N 130.3W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MUNDELL/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GIL IS UNDERGOING ANOTHER\r\nLULL IN DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTENT WITH A STRONGLY DIURNAL CYCLE\r\nIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. VISUAL DATA SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW\r\nLEVEL CENTER WITH WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD LINES. AN SSM/I SATELLITE\r\nPASS AT 1317Z WAS ALSO USED TO LOCATE THE CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800Z REMAIN AT 35 KT...SO WILL CONTINUE\r\nWITH 35 KT AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITHOUT ANY OTHER SUPPORTING\r\nDATA...THE WIND RADII REMAIN THE SAME AS WELL.\r\n \r\nGIL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR SEVERAL MORE\r\nHOURS. EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBER ESTIMATES ARE\r\nLOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO...THE DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION\r\nSUGGESTS THEY WILL REBOUND TONIGHT...MATCHING THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nVALUES ONCE AGAIN. BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK NEARLY PARALLELS THE\r\n27C SST ISOTHERM...OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A NEUTRAL\r\nINFLUENCE. GIL IS ENTRAINING STABLE STRATOCUMULUS AIR FROM ITS\r\nWESTERN FLANK INTO THE CORE. ALL INDICATIONS ARE IT WILL EITHER\r\nMAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/9 IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT. GIL SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG A WESTWARD TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NONE\r\nOF THE FORECAST AIDS ARE HINTING AT A RECURVATURE TRACK. ONCE GIL\r\nWEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW OVER COOLER WATERS...IT WILL BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 18.9N 118.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 120.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.3N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.7N 124.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.4N 131.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MUNDELL/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nWHILE GIL CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST\r\n24 HR...AND THE CONVECTION IS FARTHER FROM THE NOW EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS AND THE OVERALL WEAKENED\r\nAPPEARANCE...GIL IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/8.  GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF GIL BY 72 HR...WHICH FILLS THEREAFTER. \r\nTHIS WOULD ALLOW GIL TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72\r\nHR...WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD\r\nTHEREAFTER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF A SOMEWHAT SPREAD GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR GIL TO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...WITH THE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 24C\r\nBY 48 HR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR GIL TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR...AND IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 18.6N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.7N 120.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 19.1N 122.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 124.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 19.9N 126.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 20.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nGIL REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION BUT WITH\r\nRATHER SCANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T1.5 OR 25 KT...WHILE OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES ARE HIGHER.  LIKE A FIELD GOAL SPLITTING THE UPRIGHTS...\r\nNEARLY THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION OF GIL FELL SQUARELY IN THE GAP\r\nBETWEEN QUIKSCAT OVERPASSES AT 0130 AND 0300 UTC.  GIVEN THE\r\nCONFLICTING AND LIMITED DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nUNCERTAIN BUT IS HELD AT 30 KT.  SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH\r\nTHE CYCLONE ARE NEAR 27 CELSIUS BUT WILL GET GRADUALLY COOLER ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...SO A STEADY DECLINE IS FORECAST.  SINCE GIL\r\nSHOULD REACH 24 CELSIUS WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nGIL AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT 8-9 KT IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE\r\nDAYS...IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 18.6N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.7N 121.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N 123.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 19.4N 125.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.8N 126.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 20.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nGIL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SPORADIC CONVECTION THAT BARELY MEETS THE\r\nREQUIREMENTS FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  OVERALL...IT SEEMS LIKE THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THIS THINKING IS IN\r\nLINE WITH DECREASING DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nLIKELY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  GIL SHOULD BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW TOMORROW...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NOW...280/8. WEAK\r\nRIDGING SHOULD PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAY AND FORCE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 18.8N 120.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.0N 121.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.3N 123.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.6N 125.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N 127.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS OVER GIL NEAR 1400Z INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nWERE NO MORE THAN 25 KT...AND PROBABLY LESS.  THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AND IT IS LIKELY THAT GIL WILL NO\r\nLONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT A GENEROUS 25 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW STAGE OF THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY LAST FOR A FEW DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION UNWINDS OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/8.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOW WEST\r\nOR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 19.1N 121.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.3N 122.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.6N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N 126.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N 127.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 20.2N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n\r\nCONVECTION FLARED UP NEAR AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF GIL THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING COVERED BY THE OVERCAST\r\nFOR A WHILE.  THE LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS ARE\r\nSTARTING TO WARM...SUGGESTING THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY BE\r\nENDING.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT PENDING EITHER\r\nPERSISTENT OF THE CONVECTION OR OTHER DATA SHOWING ACTUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY WITH TIME.  THIS WILL\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.  GIL IS MOVING OVER\r\nCOLDER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 12-24 HR...WITH FINAL DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR SO. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 19.3N 122.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.6N 123.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.2N 126.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.4N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL IN\r\nCOVERAGE...CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY BURST OVER THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.  COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE\r\nA WEAKENING CAUSING GIL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS...FINALLY DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/8...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 19.5N 123.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.8N 124.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 127.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 129.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 20.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP102007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS DISSIPATED. A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY IS LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. AN AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE PASS AT 02/1011Z WAS USED TO HELP LOCATE THE PARTIALLY\r\nEXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02/0242Z PROVIDED A\r\nGOOD LOOK AT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF GIL. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ONLY\r\n20 TO 25 KT IN THE NW QUADRANT...MAINLY FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS ARE 15 KT OR LESS IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. \r\n\r\nMINIMAL CONVECTION AND COOLER WATERS HAVE ALLOWED GIL TO REACH THE\r\nPOINT WHERE IT CAN NO LONGER BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHEREFORE THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW OF GIL SHOULD PERSIST ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN\r\nBECOME INDISTINGUISHABLE...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGE SCALE FLOW\r\nWEST OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 19.7N 124.0W    20 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N 125.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 128.0W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W    15 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MUNDELL/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO IS NOW A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT...\r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  A\r\nSHIP REPORT AT 1700 UTC OF 41 KT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nREPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED\r\nBY HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM GETS TO LAND AND THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nPERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS CHARACTERIZED THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nDURING MOST OF THE SEASON.  THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS\r\nTHE SYSTEM OFFSHORE BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS RAPID STRENGTHENING...TO 101 KT IN 72\r\nHOURS...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nDO NOT INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM VERY MUCH EVEN THOUGH THEY KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM OVER WATER.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE FOR NOW...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE SHIPS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS\r\nANTICIPATED AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES STEERED BY WEAK\r\nRIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS\r\nNOTABLE THAT GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT BEYOND 3 DAYS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 14.3N  97.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.0N  98.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 15.9N  99.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 16.8N 100.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.5N 102.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 20.3N 108.3W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 11-E HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...WITH STRONG BUT DISORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION APPARENTLY DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  DATA FROM A RECENT WINDSAT OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT A SMALL\r\nVORTEX MAY BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION NEAR THE\r\nCONVECTION...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS THE PRIMARY CENTER OR A\r\nFEATURE ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE\r\nDEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERWARD TO NORTHWESTERWARD TRACK\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO  THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS...WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN TRACKS THAT BRING\r\nTHE CENTER ONSHORE AND SOME THAT KEEP IT OFFSHORE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER\r\n96 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST THE RIDGE TO\r\nWEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THEY ALL HAVE DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS IN HOW IT\r\nWEAKENS.  THIS WEAKENING COULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nMORE NORTHWARD...AND THUS A SLIGHT RIGHT TURN IS SHOW BETWEEN\r\n96-120 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HR WILL MAINLY BE DETERMINED BY\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBRUSH THE COAST...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT.  IF THE\r\nDEPRESSION MOVES RIGHT OF THE TRACK...IT COULD MOVE OVER LAND AND\r\nDISSIPATE AS SHOW BY THE HWRF MODEL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IF IT\r\nSTAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  EVEN\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM LAND\r\nTO ALLOW STRENGTHENING BY 72-96 HR...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND THAT TIME.  BY 120 HR...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER WATER THAT SHOULD STOP\r\nINTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nIF THE VORTEX SEEN IN THE WINDSAT DATA IS THE PRIMARY CENTER...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ON LATER\r\nADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 14.7N  98.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 15.4N  98.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 16.4N 100.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 17.2N 101.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  GOES-EAST IMAGERY FOLLOWING THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD\r\nHAS REVEALED A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN BOTH THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE\r\nOF CONVECTION...INCLUDING RIGHT OVER THE ESTIMATED LOCATION OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND ACAPULCO RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HEAVY\r\nRAINS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE NOT QUITE YET A CONSENSUS 2.5...SO THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  SINCE CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED SINCE 06Z...THE DEPRESSION IS PROBABLY ON VERGE OF\r\nBECOMING TROPICAL STORM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING...AS THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO LESSEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FORECAST STILL\r\nINDICATES HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS...CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF DO NOT\r\nFORECAST MUCH INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nBASED ON AN EARLIER 00Z WINDSAT OVERPASS...AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM\r\nACAPULCO MEXICO...THE CENTER LOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/9.  THAT\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN PLACE.  BEYOND THAT TIME\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST THAT RIDGE TO WEAKEN.  IF THE CYCLONE\r\nSTRENGTHENS AS FORECAST IT WILL LIKELY TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THAT WEAKNESS...ALONG THE LINES OF THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS TRACK FORECASTS.  IF IT FOR SOME REASON IS\r\nWEAKER...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...THE TRACK COULD END\r\nUP BEING FARTHER SOUTH IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 15.3N  99.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 16.9N 102.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 17.8N 103.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 18.5N 105.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N 108.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nRADAR FROM ACAPULCO AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE IS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW A VERY LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CENTER\r\nOF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCONVECTION DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. IN ADDITION...A PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH LAND. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n35 KNOTS. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED SINCE THE OCEAN\r\nIS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX GRADUALLY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. \r\n\r\nHENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NOT\r\nTOO FAR FROM THE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE\r\nNORTH WOULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. A STRONG AND\r\nPERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN AND MODELS DIVERGE. ONE GROUP OF\r\nMODELS BRING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE\r\nOTHER GROUP TURNS THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LARGE SPREAD AT 96 AND\r\n120 HOUR PERIODS...AND BRINGS HENRIETTA TO THE WEST AND NOT FAR\r\nFROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 15.7N 100.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.4N 101.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 17.4N 102.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 18.3N 104.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 109.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 25.0N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40\r\nKNOTS. ALTHOUGH A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH\r\nLAND...THE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nAND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THIS \r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST MEXICAN COAST AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD\r\nBRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST. THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED.  A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO STEER HENRIETTE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST\r\nBECOME UNCERTAIN SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN. MODELS ARE NOW\r\nIN BETTER AGREEMENT AND MOST OF THEM BRING THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 16.2N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 16.9N 102.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.0N 104.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.8N 105.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 24.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2007\r\n \r\nTHIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION DEPICTS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN\r\nHENRIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN.  ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS\r\nJUST BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION...THE COLDEST CLOUD TOP CANOPY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN\r\nAREAL EXTENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nVERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONFORMS WITH A BLEND OF THE SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE AND THE LOGISTICAL GROWTH EQUATION MODEL...WHICH BOTH\r\nINDICATE HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS.  BEYOND DAY 2...A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED AS 10-20 KT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A RETROGRADING UPPER TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD.\r\n \r\nBASED ON AN EARLIER 1752Z TRMM OVERPASS...HENRIETTE'S CENTER\r\nLOCATION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS CURRENTLY 300/10.  A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MEXICO SHOULD INFLUENCE\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARD...THE PICTURE BECOMES A BIT UNCLEAR.  THE GFS...SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE...AND THE NOGAPS ALL FORECAST A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nIN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE\r\nPENINSULA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET...HWRF AND THE GFDL\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE RIDGING WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...INSTEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AMPLIFYING WEAKNESS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF BOTH MODEL CLUSTER\r\nSOLUTIONS...WHICH INDICATES A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nBUT SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER THAN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 17.1N 102.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.8N 103.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.7N 105.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 106.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 108.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION WITH\r\nTOPS AROUND -80C MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS ALSO EXPANDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...\r\nBUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER IT IS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 45\r\nKT...AND A 0128 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 45 KT.  SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nRADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON THE QSCAT PASS. \r\n\r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO ABATE AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN\r\nWARM FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL HENRIETTE REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE INTERACTION\r\nTHAT HENRIETTE HAS WITH LAND OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COULD HINDER\r\nINTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FURTHER OFFSHORE\r\nTHAN FORECAST HENRIETTE COULD BECOME A STRONGER HURRICANE AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...AND THE STORM IS BEING STEERED BY A\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS TO WHEN THE RIDGE WILL\r\nWEAKEN ALLOWING FOR A MOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. \r\nTHE GFDN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS OPT FOR A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK\r\nOVER SOUTHERN BAJA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HWRF...GFS...AND\r\nNOGAPS MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION LONGER AND KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 17.4N 103.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.1N 104.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 19.4N 107.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.9N 109.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 25.0N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGE BUT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN\r\nORGANIZATION AND THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45\r\nKNOTS. THE CIRCULATION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND AND BOTH\r\nSHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO.  \r\n\r\nHENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OR 295\r\nDEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A\r\nLITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THIS PATTERN COULD FORCE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE TEMPORARILY ON MORE WESTERLY TRACK.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND THE FORECAST BECOME HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.  ONCE AGAIN A GROUP OF TRACK MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE\r\nWELL WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WHERE THE OCEAN IS COOLER RESULTING IN\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS BRINGS HENRIETTE OVER\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN THE GULF OF CORTES WHERE THE WATER IS WARM\r\nAND STRENGTHENING COULD CONTINUE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OPTED FOR\r\nTHE FIRST OPTION AND KEEPS HENRIETTE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nWEAKENING. THIS IN FACT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 17.8N 104.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.5N 105.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.2N 107.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 109.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N 114.1W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nNOW THAT MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING AWAY FROM LAND...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO HAVE A MORE DISTINCT SHAPE.  THE\r\nCENTER IS VERY MUCH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION AND WITHIN\r\nSEVERAL CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IN FACT...THERE IS A HINT OF AN\r\nEYE FEATURE.  T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SUPPORTING A HIGHER INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE OCEAN IS\r\nWARM. THEREFORE..HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT\r\nTWO DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH CONTINUES TO BE\r\n295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS\r\nCENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. UNANIMOUSLY...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE HIGH ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE\r\nGUIDANCE BRINGS HENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS\r\nTIME. ONLY THE GFDL AND THE ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE THE\r\nOCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE... HENRIETTE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN\r\nITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD BE MORE DANGEROUS TO MEXICO.\r\nONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO RELIABLE\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 18.2N 105.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.8N 106.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 108.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 110.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 111.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE CONTINUES TO EDGE AWAY FROM THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO...AND IS ASSUMING A MORE SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN WITH\r\nOUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. SINCE CLASSIFICATION\r\nTIME...THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF A WARM SPOT DEVELOPING IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND MANUAL AODT ESTIMATES HAVE ALSO INCREASED. AS\r\nSUCH THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. HENRIETTE IS IN A\r\nLOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM SSTS AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...PEAKING IN 24-36 HOURS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...GFDL AND THE LGEM MODELS.\r\nINTERESTINGLY...THE SHIPS MODELS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX PROBABILITY\r\nIS 60 PERCENT AND AS SUCH THE MODEL IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE AND IS\r\nFORECASTING A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS. THIS LEAVES OPEN THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT HENRIETTE COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS NOW 290\r\nDEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE A MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A VERY SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 145W IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD\r\nAND WEAKEN THE HIGH...ALLOWING HENRIETTE TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH BEYOND 48-72 HOURS. MOST OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND BRINGS\r\nHENRIETTE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COOLER WATERS JUST WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. ACCORDINGLY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND BRINGS A MUCH WEAKER\r\nHENRIETTE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE RELIABLE GFDL AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS...AS WELL AS THE CCON CONSENSUS REMAIN OUTLIERS ON THE RIGHT\r\nAND BRING  HENRIETTE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHERE\r\nTHE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM. IN THIS CASE...HENRIETTE COULD MAINTAIN\r\nITS INTENSITY AND THE HURRICANE WOULD POSE MORE OF A DANGER TO\r\nMEXICO. ONE SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FUTURE RUNS OF THESE TWO\r\nRELIABLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 18.4N 106.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.9N 107.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.4N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.1N 110.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 111.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 25.5N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 29.0N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER COBB/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OUTER BANDS...\r\nPARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...ARE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BASED ON THE RECENT IMAGES...HENRIETTE\r\nCOULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY A CARBON COPY FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 80 KT AT THE 36 AND 48 HR PERIODS TO CONFORM WITH A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFDL...LGE MODEL AND THE SHIPS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF TRACK THIS EVENING...WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 280/8.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO\r\nFORCE THE CYCLONE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED GENERAL MOTION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN A TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND ULTIMATELY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE MAJORITY OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL\r\nAND ECMWF...WHICH HAVE BEEN REFLECTING A RIGHT OF TRACK\r\nBIAS...INDICATIVE OF UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 18.5N 107.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 19.8N 110.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N 112.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.4N 114.1W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 26.0N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 29.0N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nWHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED AT 1200 UTC...DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS SINCE INCREASED AND A NEW BAND IS\r\nFORMING TO THE NORTH.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS A SMALL CORE.  HENRIETTE COULD BE ON THE VERGE OF\r\nBECOMING A HURRICANE BUT I PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nCONFIRMS THE CENTER LOCATION AND STRUCTURE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.    \r\n \r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY\r\nIDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ALREADY UNRESTRICTED IN ALL QUADRANTS AND\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY OVER HENRIETTE\r\nBECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE NEW FEW DAYS.  ADDITIONALLY...\r\nSSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AMPLY WARM.  THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A HIGHER THAN USUAL CHANCE FOR\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED\r\nUPWARDS AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ICON.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...\r\nCOOLERS WATERS AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nRESULT IN WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/6.  THE \r\nSYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL\r\nSHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALMOST INSTANTLY AND THEN\r\nTURN NORTHEAST AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. \r\nWHILE THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THIS MODEL PERFORMED VERY WELL IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS LAST\r\nYEAR.   IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL MODEL OUTPERFORMED THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES WHICH SIMILARLY\r\nPARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN DEFERENCE TO\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 18.8N 106.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N 107.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N 110.2W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N 111.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W    50 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 30.1N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE IS TRYING TO FORM\r\nA BANDING EYE.  HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS LOCATED IN A SEEMINGLY IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nREMAIN BENEATH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND WITHIN A\r\nLOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WARM\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS MUDDIED BY THE FACT THAT HENRIETTE IS A VERY SMALL\r\nCYCLONE CAPABLE OF RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN.\r\nMOREOVER...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO\r\nTHE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO. SUCH A SMALL CYCLONE COULD UNDERGO\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE CENTER STAYS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.\r\nLIKEWISE...IT COULD BE EASILY DISRUPTED BY INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nCOAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD IT MOVE A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES HENRIETTE\r\nWILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. BEYOND 72 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO\r\nWHERE IT SHOULD DISSIPATE. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD MAKE IT\r\nINTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 295/4.\r\nTHE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nSHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nMIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW HENRIETTE TO GRADUALLY\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD.  IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT BEING IN THE UKMET.  THE GFDL REMAINS THE EASTERNMOST\r\nOUTLIER...BUT THIS SOLUTION CANNOT BE IGNORED GIVEN ITS PERFORMANCE\r\nLAST YEAR DURING JOHN AND LANE...TWO HURRICANES THAT SIMILARLY\r\nPARALLELED THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nAGAIN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE GIVEN THE\r\nRECENT MODEL TRENDS AND THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE'S CURRENT SLOW MOTION DELAYS THE NEED FOR WATCHES OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 18.6N 106.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N 107.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 108.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N 109.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 22.6N 110.6W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 25.5N 111.5W    65 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 111.5W    40 KT...INLAND \r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS\r\nEVENING.  DESPITE GOOD BANDING FEATURES...THE OVERALL AREAL EXTENT\r\nOF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  IT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A\r\nMYSTERY AS TO WHY HENRIETTE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE CLOSELY AND PEAKS\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 85 KT IN 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY\r\nINDUCE WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...IF HENRIETTE MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IT WOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND COULD REMAIN A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION OF HENRIETTE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4.  HENRIETTE IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING STEERED AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETREAT\r\nEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 140 DEGREES WEST.  WHILE THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON RE-CURVING THE CYCLONE OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nGFDL MODEL REMAINS THE EASTERN-MOST SOLUTION...AS IT KEEPS HENRIETTE\r\nJUST EAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\nTHE GFS AND HWRF MODELS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED\r\nTO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE MONDAY AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 18.9N 107.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 107.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 21.9N 109.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N 110.7W    75 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 27.0N 111.0W    55 KT...OVER SEA OF CORTEZ\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N 110.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n \r\nDESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS MORNING'S SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION DEPICTS A BIT OF A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES...AND\r\nBASED ON THE RECENT LESS IMPRESSIVE BANDING STRUCTURE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.  THE INTENSITY MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SUGGEST STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 24-36\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH MOST HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE PEAK\r\nINTENSITY...PARTICULARLY THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A MAXIMUM\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 310/8...A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING\r\nMAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ARE SUGGESTING A TURN\r\nNORTHWARD PLACING THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE VERY NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48 HOURS...THEN CONTINUING\r\nON OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH THE SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. \r\nAFTERWARD...THE MODELS INDICATE A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nOVER MAINLAND MEXICO...WITH DISSIPATION IN 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED\r\nTO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 19.4N 107.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N 108.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 21.4N 109.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.7N 110.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N 111.3W    70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 28.0N 111.5W    50 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 32.0N 110.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE THIS MORNING\r\nWITH AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT\r\nIS BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE HENRIETTE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON\r\nINTENSITY.  THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 36-48 HOURS OVER WARM WATER AND\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR HENRIETTE TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND HAS BEEN\r\nCHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 310/10.  THE OVERALL FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES.  DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN REASONABLY CLUSTERED\r\nABOUT A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD...TAKING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS.  THE GFDL\r\nMODEL IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nON THE TRACK BUT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A BIT FASTER IN TERMS OF\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARDS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS REFLECTING A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT.  ONCE CROSSING THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCOAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.   DISSIPATION OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT A 96 HOUR POSITION IS GIVEN SO AS NOT TO IMPLY\r\nDISSIPATION RIGHT AT THE COAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 19.9N 108.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N 109.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.2N 111.4W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.9N 111.8W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N 112.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 33.0N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n \r\nWHILE HENRIETTE'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE\r\nDAY...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT\r\nBASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 58 KT.  THE CYCLONE HAS ANOTHER 24-36\r\nHOURS OVER OPEN WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HENRIETTE\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED LOWER.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE CONTINUES TO CRAWL ALONG WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 315/05.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN\r\nREASONABLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 36-48 HOURS.  DESPITE\r\nTHE CLUSTERING...DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO FAST\r\nIN THEIR FORWARD SPEED.  BASED ON THIS TENDENCY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE\r\nFIRST 36 HOURS.  ONCE IT CROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA...HENRIETTE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WITH A\r\nSECOND LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN\r\n48-72 HOURS.   DISSIPATION OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED\r\nSHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL.  WHILE IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWOULD SURVIVE A TRACK OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...SOME OF THE RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 20.1N 108.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N 109.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 22.3N 110.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 23.8N 110.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 25.4N 111.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N 111.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2007\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT A BANDING TYPE EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED THIS EVENING WITH THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS WARMING SINCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT SAMPLED THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT 65 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY...THEREFORE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6....WHICH IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nAHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS...BUT THEY HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ALONG THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST INDICATES THAT HENRIETTE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...HENRIETTE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE MAKING A\r\nFINAL LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE THE\r\nLONG-TERM MEAN NHC TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 55 N MI AT 24 HOURS AND 80\r\nN MI AT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING EVEN\r\nTHOUGH HENRIETTE HAS REFUSED TO DO SO DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO\r\nTHE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREAFTER... WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 20.6N 108.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.6N 109.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 23.2N 110.1W    70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.9N 110.7W    55 KT...NEAR EAST COAST BAJA\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 26.7N 110.8W    55 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 30.5N 109.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS\r\nHAVE SHOWN AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF\r\nHENRIETTE.  BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN\r\nLUCAS CLEARLY SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING HENRIETTE THE\r\nTHIRD HURRICANE OF THE 2007 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  \r\n\r\nHENRIETTE APPEARS TO MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330/7.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nWITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH...\r\nWHICH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCENTER OF THE HURRICANE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN \r\n12 HOURS OR SO.  THE UKMET MODEL IS THE FURTHEST TO THE EAST AND\r\nKEEPS HENRIETTE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT A HAIR\r\nTO THE EAST AND WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION.  ONCE HENRIETTE IS\r\nNORTH AND WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...FINAL LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR\r\nALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nONCE INLAND THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION\r\nFAIRLY QUICKLY. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT TREND IN STRENGTH...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO\r\nINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER BAJA.  THE WATERS ARE\r\nPLENTY WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...SO IT IS POSSIBLY THAT\r\nHENRIETTE COULD BE A BIT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BELOW.  LITTLE\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AS\r\nA RESULT OF THE SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME THE CENTER WILL BE OVER BAJA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN THE\r\nCYCLONE MAKES ITS FINAL LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nBASED ON A 0150 UTC PASS FROM QUIKSCAT...THE WIND RADII WERE\r\nADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.   \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 21.4N 109.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 24.5N 110.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 26.4N 110.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N 110.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 31.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING WITH A DISTINCT EYE\r\nNOW APPARENT IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA\r\nFROM CABO SAN LUCAS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT\r\nBASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 75 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  \r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE WITH THE \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 335/9.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nESSENTIALLY THE SAME.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD \r\nWITH A SLIGHT ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AHEAD OF A TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THEN CROSSING THE SEA\r\nOF CORTEZ AND REACHING THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.  THE UKMET MODEL CONTINUES TO BE ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUITE WHILE THE GFDL IS SURPRISINGLY LOCATED TOWARD\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND REPRESENTS ONLY\r\nA SMALL CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   \r\n \r\nTHERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nAS HENRIETTE HAS ABOUT 6-12 HOURS OVER WATER PRIOR TO MAKING\r\nLANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.\r\nTHEREAFTER...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO LAND\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ULTIMATELY THE HIGHLY\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  HENRIETTE'S SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD RAPIDLY DISSIPATE ONCE INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD\r\nMAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nSEVERAL CHANGES TO THE WATCH AND WARNING AREAS WERE REQUIRED FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 22.2N 109.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 23.6N 110.1W    65 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 25.5N 110.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 27.4N 110.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 29.2N 110.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":21,"Date":"2007-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE\r\nTHAT HENRIETTE MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS NEAR SAN\r\nJOSE DEL CABO AROUND 2030 UTC.  DVORAK INTENSITY WERE 75 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE\r\nHAS BEGUN TO FILL AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nHAS BECOME RAGGED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATED AT 345/9.  A NORTHWARD TURN WITH A SLIGHT\r\nACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CLUSTERED ABOUT A TRACK\r\nACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ REACHING THE MAINLAND COAST OF\r\nMEXICO IN 24-36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DUE TO HENRIETTE'S FORECAST SHORT DURATION\r\nOVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IS UNCLEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES\r\nTHAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL BE DISRUPTED ENOUGH TO PREVENT\r\nSIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. HENRIETTE\r\nSHOULD THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN ONCE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF\r\nHENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN 2-3\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 23.1N 109.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 24.4N 110.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 26.3N 110.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.4N 110.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 110.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":22,"Date":"2007-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HENRIETTE HAS RECENTLY EMERGED OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ\r\nNEAR ISLA CERRALVO.  THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS SEEN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY PRIOR TO LANDFALL ERODED DURING HENRIETTE'S BRIEF PASSAGE\r\nOVER LAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT\r\nDEGRADED VERY MUCH AND A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB\r\nSUGGESTS THAT HENRIETTE IS STILL A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS OR SO...ABOUT 350/10.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS A\r\nPERSISTENCE COMPONENT AND IS TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH HAVE PERFORMED BETTER DURING THE PAST\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE WEAKENED LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER BAJA...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS IT AT HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HENRIETTE\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE SINCE THE WATER IN THE SEA OF CORTEZ IS\r\nQUITE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.  THIS FORECAST\r\nASSUMES THAT HENRIETTE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME OVER WATER IN WHICH\r\nTO STRENGTHEN.  IF THE HURRICANE MOVES LEFT OF TRACK AND SPENDS\r\nMORE TIME OVER WATER IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN NOTED BELOW.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY\r\nOBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR\r\nLANDFALL LOCATION. A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST\r\nWOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL\r\nSURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 24.1N 109.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 25.6N 110.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 27.5N 110.2W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 29.7N 110.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.8N 108.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":23,"Date":"2007-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT TWO WELL-DEFINED DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER CIRCULATION OF HENRIETTE.\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 65\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE 3-HOUR AVERAGED ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 55\r\nKT.  A 0124 UTC QSCAT PASS ESTIMATED WINDS AROUND 55 KT...\r\nHOWEVER...THE PASS WAS LARGELY OBSTRUCTED BY LAND AND IT IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO SAY HOW ACCURATE THE VALUES ARE.  BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE ABOVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD\r\nAT 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/11.  HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH...IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 OR SO HOURS WITHIN THE\r\nWARNING AREA.  THEREAFTER...A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE WARM WATERS ACROSS THE SEA OF CORTEZ AND A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE INTERACTION OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WITH LAND WILL MOST LIKELY PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN OF MEXICO SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AT FAIRLY RAPID RATE\r\nAND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN TWO DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE HENRIETTE WILL APPROACH THE MAINLAND COAST AT A SHARPLY\r\nOBLIQUE ANGLE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND/OR\r\nLANDFALL LOCATION.  A SMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE FORECAST\r\nWOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  WHILE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL\r\nSURVIVE THE TRACK OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE IT\r\nINTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 25.0N 109.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 26.8N 110.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 29.5N 109.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 32.5N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":24,"Date":"2007-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 05 2007\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE. DESPITE VERY\r\nWARM WATERS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ...INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS\r\nDISRUPTED THE INNER CORE AND THE CYCLONE HAS A NARROWING WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN BEFORE MAKING ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.  ONCE LANDFALL OCCURS...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS TURNING NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT\r\n360/10. A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH IS EXPECTED...AND HENRIETTE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS. WHILE IT IS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THE TRACK OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...MOISTURE FROM THE\r\nREMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 26.0N 110.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 28.0N 109.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 30.7N 108.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":25,"Date":"2007-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007\r\n \r\nLATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nTHOUGHT AND REMAINS OVER THE SEA OF CORTEZ. DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KT SO HENRIETTE IS HELD AT\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN A FEW HOURS.  RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND WITH\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TAKING THE CENTER OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE A TRACK OVER SUCH HIGH TERRAIN.\r\nHOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE COULD MAKE IT\r\nINTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 27.0N 110.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.3N 110.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.1N 108.0W    15 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":26,"Date":"2007-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 05 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT HENRIETTE MADE\r\nLANDFALL NEAR GUAYMAS MEXICO AROUND 0000 UTC. HENRIETTE HAS STARTED\r\nTO WEAKEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.\r\nADDITIONAL RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND\r\nOVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL\r\nSURVIVE THE PASSAGE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OVER MEXICO AND\r\nDISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HENRIETTE IS WEAKENING...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nCONTINUES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF\r\nHENRIETTE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ENHANCED RAINFALL ACROSS\r\nPORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 28.8N 110.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 30.6N 110.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 32.6N 108.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henriette","Adv":27,"Date":"2007-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP112007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 06 2007\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AND ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEASTWARD.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. MOISTURE\r\nAND RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nHENRIETTE.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPEP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPZ31\r\nKWNH...BEGINNING AT 8 AM PDT.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 30.2N 110.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 33.5N 107.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-18 17:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n1000 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 1330Z SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...WITH QUIKSCAT SUGGESTING\r\nA POSITION SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  THIS YIELDS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN MOTION OF\r\n290/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE LOW DOES NOT MOVE\r\nFAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ACCELERATION AFTER RECURVATURE...WITH THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND DECELERATION DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WITH A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY MOTION THAN CALLED FOR BY THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE\r\nSHEAR.  COMBINED WITH THE DEPRESSION MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AT\r\nABOUT 72 HR...THIS EVOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE GFDL CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE WEAKENING...SO THERE IS A CHANCE\r\nIT COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1700Z 13.4N 107.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 13.9N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.7N 111.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 112.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.4N 114.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E IS\r\nGETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A BAND OF CURVED CONVECTION FORMING\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nHOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE ESTIMATES WERE\r\nMADE...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THIS INTENSITY IS A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.  WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING EVEN IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DURING\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE LOW DOES NOT MOVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ACCELERATION AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING LITTLE MOTION AND THE HWRF\r\nMODEL SHOWING A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK AGAIN\r\nCALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND DECELERATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nIT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND THEN\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT LIGHT SHEAR TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR 48-72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SHEAR. \r\nTHIS...COMBINED WITH DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE AND MOTION OVER COOLER WATER AT ABOUT 72 HR...\r\nSUGGESTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. \r\nNONE OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT IN CALLING\r\nFOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 13.8N 108.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 110.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 15.4N 112.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N 113.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 114.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND\r\n3.0 RESPECTIVELY ON THE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE DATA..THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. IVO IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. THEREAFTER...STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO DEVELOP NEAR THE CYCLONE AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nIVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM\r\nMEXICO WESTWARD. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN IN\r\nABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IVO REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE. BY THEN...A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW NORTH\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO BE LIGHT...IVO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND THE FORECAST\r\nBECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. SOME MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE...OTHERS TURN IVO TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE GFS MOVE IT\r\nTOWARD THE WEST. HOWEVER..THEY ALL AGREE IN FORECASTING WEAKENING\r\nAFTER 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 14.5N 109.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 15.2N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007\r\n\r\nIVO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT EXHIBITS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO \r\nAND WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING INNER CORE\r\nBUT NO EYE...YET.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nREMAIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL MODEL\r\nPREDICTION.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AN INCREASE\r\nIN WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS OUTPUT IN THE LATTER\r\nPART OF THE PERIOD.  IF IVO MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED IT\r\nWOULD ENCOUNTER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...AND WOULD MOST\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SLOWING IN THE ESTIMATED MOTION...WHICH IS\r\nNOW ABOUT 300/9.  DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...IVO IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nANTICYCLONE.  BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A\r\nSTRONG MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD AND\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODELS TURN IVO NORTHEASTWARD OR...IN THE CASE OF THE GFDL\r\nMODEL... EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GUNA DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS NOTED\r\nEARLIER...THE TRACK FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nBECAUSE THERE IS A  LARGE SPREAD IN THE CREDIBLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE\r\nAT THAT TIME RANGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 14.7N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 15.4N 111.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.4N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 113.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.2N 113.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N 112.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT IVO HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C TO -80C.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT HAS DECREASED A LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10.  IVO REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nSOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BREAK THE\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF IVO...ALLOWING THE STORM TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL NOT\r\nCOME FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD...SO\r\nTHE MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...\r\nTHEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT 96 AND 120 HR IN A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL...HWRF...UKMET...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERNS...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE\r\nMOTION.  THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW IVO INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE WEST WHICH PREVENTS THE STORM FROM RECURVING IN\r\nTHOSE MODELS.\r\n\r\nIVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IVO WILL\r\nENCOUNTER.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST 20-25 KT OF\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHILE THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LESS\r\nSHEAR.  FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SHIPS AND CALL\r\nFOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO\r\nALTERNATIVES.  FIRST...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS IVO OVER\r\nWARMER WATER BY 120 HR...AND IF THE GFS IS WRONG ABOUT THE AMOUNT\r\nOF SHEAR IVO COULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST AT THAT TIME. \r\nSECOND...IF IVO TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD\r\nLIKELY ENCOUNTER BOTH STRONGER SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 15.3N 111.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.8N 113.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 17.7N 113.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 18.6N 114.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 111.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007\r\n \r\nIVO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN..WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nAROUND THE CENTER AND THE POSSIBLE BEGINNING OF EYE FORMATION IN\r\nBOTH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT...AND IF IVO IS NOT YET A HURRICANE IT SHOULD\r\nBECOME ONE SHORTLY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nAND NORTHEAST AND FAIR TO POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/9.  IVO REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nSOUTHWARD INTO CALIFORNIA WILL DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO BREAK THE\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF IVO...ALLOWING THE STORM TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR.  HOWEVER...IT STILL APPEARS THE LOW WILL\r\nNOT COME FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nSO THE MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW. \r\nADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO RE-BUILD\r\nEAST OF IVO IN 96-120 HR...AND THEY RESPOND TO THIS BY SHOWING A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST\r\nPART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nDUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE.  IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE CCON CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES\r\nNOT FORECAST IVO TO RECURVE...AS IT TRAPS THE STORM SOUTH OF THE\r\nRE-BUILDING RIDGE.\r\n \r\nIVO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...SO CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IVO\r\nWILL ENCOUNTER.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR...\r\nWHILE THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  BECAUSE IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH MODEL IS ON THE RIGHT\r\nTRACK...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.   THE TWO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nREMAIN.  FIRST...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS IVO OVER WARMER WATER BY\r\n120 HR...AND IF THE SHEAR IS LIGHT IVO COULD BE STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST AT THAT TIME.  SECOND...IF IVO TRACKS NORTH OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER BOTH STRONGER SHEAR AND\r\nCOLDER WATER...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 15.4N 111.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 16.8N 113.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.9N 114.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.9N 113.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 111.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 109.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivo","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n4.0 AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASSAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED RING OF\r\nCONVECTION RESEMBLING AN EYEWALL. ON THIS BASIS...IVO HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65 KNOT HURRICANE.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IVO TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODELS. IN FACT...SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR LOSE THE CYCLONE BEYOND DAY 3. ONLY THE\r\nGFDL KEEPS IVO AS A HURRICANE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE GFDL\r\nRUNS.     \r\n\r\nIVO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nTHIS RIDGE WILL BE ERODED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH...RESULTING IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. IVO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY AND THEN TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE LIGHT FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE TRACK FORECAST BASICALLY FOLLOW THE\r\nSOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS\r\nFORECAST WHICH APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 16.1N 112.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.0N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 21.5N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivo","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IVO HAS MAINTAINED ITS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW....AND RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES FROM BOTH SSM/I AND AMSU-B INDICATE AN EYE FEATURE.  AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0136 UTC HAD MAXIMUM WIND VECTORS OF AT\r\nLEAST 55 KT.  THESE VECTORS WERE LIKELY ATTENUATED BY HEAVY\r\nRAIN...SO THE ACTUAL MAXIMUM WINDS WERE PROBABLY CLOSER TO 65 KT. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.0 OR 65\r\nKT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE 34- AND 50-KT\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nIVO IS MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 330/6.  THE FORWARD MOTION HAS\r\nSLOWED AS THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS WAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA-NORTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER.  THIS STEERING FEATURE SHOULD CREATE A MORE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IN THE LATER PERIODS.\r\nSOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT\r\nIVO WILL WEAKEN AND TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSER TO THE GFDL SCENARIO OF A STRONGER SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MORE\r\nRESPONSIVE TO THE TROUGH.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH WARM WATERS AND RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR.  BOTH OF\r\nTHESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE LATER\r\nPERIODS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IF IVO TRACKS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nOUR FORECAST...STRONGER SHEAR COULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE THE\r\nCONSENSUS TECHNIQUE...ICON...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS BECAUSE THERE ARE LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES AT THESE FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 16.5N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.3N 113.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.3N 112.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 23.5N 110.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivo","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007\r\n \r\nA TRMM PASS AT O9Z SHOWED WELL-DEFINED BUT SLIGHTLY DISPLACED\r\nEYEWALL FEATURES IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.  ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASED TO 77 KT AT 12Z...OBJECTIVE\r\nADT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ACTUALLY HAVE FALLEN AND ARE BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE PRESENTATION IN IR IMAGERY IS RELATIVELY\r\nINDISTINCT.  GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 65 KT.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE TRMM FIX THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 330/6. A\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nPENINSULA...WITH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CUTOFF LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA\r\nCOAST. IVO IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THIS RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. ON ONE\r\nEXTREME IS THE UKMET...WHICH MAINTAINS IVO AS A STRONG SYSTEM AND\r\nCARRIES IT TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW. THE ECMWF REPRESENTS THE\r\nOPPOSITE EXTREME...WEAKENING IVO ABRUPTLY AND BOUNCING IT\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF...ARE IN BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES. THIS GROUP SLOWLY WEAKENS THE HURRICANE AND HAS ONLY A\r\nMODERATE INTERACTION WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES...TAKING IVO ON A\r\nTRACK THAT IS SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY THAN THE UKMET SOLUTION. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL SOLUTION IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS INTERMEDIATE SOLUTION.  \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST\r\nUNTIL IVO ROUNDS THE RIDGE.  THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nLOW..ALTHOUGH THERE IS A STABLE AIR MASS NOT FAR TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF IVO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS IS VERY\r\nUNCERTAIN...AS A TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WOULD\r\nBRING IVO UNDER INCREASED SHEAR AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS. \r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF IVO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND KEEP IN MIND THAT\r\nTHERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN DAY 4 TO 5 FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 17.1N 112.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 113.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 18.8N 113.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 19.8N 113.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.8N 112.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 25.5N 110.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivo","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 20 2007\r\n \r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE EVEN\r\nTHOUGH IT IS ONLY INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. \r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS\r\nAROUND 70 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE. \r\n \r\nIVO IS ESSENTIALLY MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 345/7.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...IVO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nA LARGE DEEP-LAYER CUTOFF LOW FORMS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS\r\nRESULTING IN A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS.  NOT\r\nSURPRISINGLY...DYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A LARGE SPECTRUM OF SOLUTIONS\r\nRANGING FROM THE ECMWF...WHICH SHOWS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CYCLONE\r\nABRUPTLY STOPPING AND TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH...TO THE NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDN MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND ACCELERATING IT\r\nNORTHWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nCUTOFF LOW.   THE GFDL IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN AS IT SHOWS THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINING DEEP BUT MEANDERING WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT.  AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH WHICH OF\r\nTHESE SOLUTIONS IS MOST LIKELY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NEW FORECAST REPRESENTS A\r\nSMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT PRIMARILY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING.  ON ONE\r\nHAND THE OCEAN IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF CYCLONE IS\r\nRESTRICTING OUTFLOW AND PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AND\r\nDRY AIR.  IVO COULD ALSO BECOME THERMODYNAMICALLY CHALLENGED GIVEN\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE TREND IN THE MODELS. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT\r\nTHIS TIME...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 17.8N 113.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 113.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 113.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.4N 112.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.2N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.9N 111.8W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 24.5N 111.5W    50 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 26.5N 111.5W    30 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivo","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 20 2007\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION IS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF IVO.  EVEN THOUGH AN EYE IS NOT VISIBLE IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYE WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nOCCASIONALLY OPEN.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 70 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH THE FORECAST SHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATER RELATIVELY\r\nWARM...NONE OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW ANY STRENGTHENING\r\nWITH IVO.  PERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO THE HURRICANE MOVING CLOSER TO\r\nTHE RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH.  IN ANY EVENT...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...BUT A LITTLE LOWER BEYOND 2 DAYS BECAUSE MOST MODELS\r\nSHOW INCREASING SHEAR AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE INTERACTING\r\nWITH LAND.\r\n\r\nSSMI AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT IVO IS MOVING FASTER\r\nTONIGHT TOWARD THE NORTH...350/8.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nPROBLEMATIC TO SAY THE LEAST.  FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE TRAVELING NORTHWARD IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A RATHER DEEP\r\nMIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nMODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON WHETHER IVO WILL EVENTUALLY\r\nGET CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW OR GET\r\nLEFT BEHIND IN THE AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  THE\r\nNOGAPS/UKMET/HWRF MODELS FAVOR THE SYSTEM GETTING CARRIED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST RATHER QUICKLY AND IMPACTING BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY LAND IMPACTS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER IN THE FIRST DAY DUE TO\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION BUT IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS IN THE LONG-TERM.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT\r\nTHIS TIME...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 18.8N 113.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.7N 113.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.6N 113.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.3N 112.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 25.0N 111.5W    45 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W    30 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivo","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF IVO MADE AN APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND 0600\r\nUTC...AND THEN VERY QUICKLY DISAPPEARED.  SINCE THEN...THE OVERALL\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME RAGGED...WITH EVIDENCE OF WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW ON THE WEST SIDE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.\r\n\r\nIVO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH THE\r\nMOTION ESTIMATED AT 340/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...\r\nWITH WHAT IS BECOMING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE EAST OF IVO. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW SHOULD BEGIN MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN 24-36 HR.  HOWEVER...THAT IS ABOUT ALL THEY AGREE\r\nON...AS THEY HAVE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE TRACK OF IVO. \r\nTHE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST IVO TO REACH 20N...THEN MOVE\r\nSOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE.  THE GFS AND GFDL FORECAST IVO TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD AND STALL BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nUKMET...HWRF...AND NOGAPS...MOVE IVO NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA...WITH\r\nTHE UKMET CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN LESS THAN 48 HR.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE CENTER OF IVO TO REACH BAJA IN\r\n72-96 HR.  HOPEFULLY SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THERE IS MORE WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING\r\nIVO THAN CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS OR SHIPS\r\nMODEL.  THE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR WEST OF THE HURRICANE THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR MAY ADVECT INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS SHOWING\r\nA MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.   THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 24 HR...WHILE THE HWRF AND THE GFDL SHOW A STRONGER\r\nSYSTEM WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 60 HR.  GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT SHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO WITH THE SLOW DECAY\r\nFROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT\r\nTHIS TIME...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 19.0N 113.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.9N 113.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 20.8N 113.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 112.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.3N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 24.0N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 27.0N 111.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ivo","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007\r\n \r\nWHILE BOTH TRMM AND AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 0900 UTC\r\nDEPICTED AN EYE FEATURE...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF IVO HAS DETERIORATED.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL IMPINGING UPON THE WESTERN SIDE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 77 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO CONSTRAINTS...3-\r\nAND 6-HOURLY ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE ONLY 45-55 KT. \r\nBASED ON THE ABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65\r\nKT...WHICH STILL COULD BE GENEROUS.  FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF IVO COULD BE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CURRENT ADVISORY LOCATION. \r\n \r\nIVO CONTINUES TO DECELERATE AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS NOW 350/6.\r\nA LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD IS CURRENTLY\r\nCENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND A NORTH-SOUTH\r\nORIENTED RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST OF IVO.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nOF IVO IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON THE STRENGTH OF THESE TWO FEATURES.\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE\r\nLOW SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD IN 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT DISAGREE IN\r\nHOW MUCH TROUGHING WILL LINGER BEHIND TO MAINTAIN A NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTHEAST MOTION OF IVO.  THE HWRF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS KEEP\r\nENOUGH TROUGHING TO INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nWITH A TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA IN 3 OR SO DAYS.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS STALL IVO WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nTAKES THE CENTER OF IVO ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 72 HOURS OR\r\nSO...IN LINE WITH THE HWRF...NOGAPS...UKMET SUITE.\r\n \r\nBASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THE WESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE\r\nSTRONGER THAN THE SHIPS AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING...AND A\r\nWEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY. DESPITE THE WARM WATERS...\r\nTHE WESTERLY SHEAR AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR COULD INHIBIT ANY\r\nRESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE CURRENT APPEARANCE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AT THIS TIME...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 19.5N 113.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 20.4N 113.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.3N 113.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.1N 112.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 23.0N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W    50 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 111.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 27.5N 111.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007\r\n \r\nIVO APPEARED TO BE IN A CONVECTIVE LULL ABOUT 5 OR 6 HOURS AGO...\r\nBUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\nDESPITE THE NEW CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...DVORAK\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY.  A 1356 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nESTIMATED 50 TO 55 KT WIND VECTORS.  BLENDING THE ABOVE ESTIMATES\r\nRESULTS IN LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT.  WHILE THE\r\nWATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING\r\nAFTER 12 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND HWRF.\r\n \r\nIVO IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n005/5.  THE GENERAL TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS COMPLICATED AND SOLUTIONS\r\nFROM THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  THE MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW REMAINS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA\r\nCOAST.  AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...IT\r\nIS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE LINGERING TROUGH\r\nBEHIND THE LOW WILL HAVE ON STEERING IVO NORTHEASTWARD.  ONLY THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD INTO\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.  THE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS STALL\r\nIVO SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR IVO TO MOVE ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA... BUT AT A SLOWER PACE AND SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSEST TO THE FSSE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 20.1N 113.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.8N 113.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.6N 112.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 22.3N 112.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 23.0N 112.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 25.0N 111.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE FORMATION OF A SHARP WESTERN\r\nEDGE AND WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A FORTUITOUS 0028 UTC SSM/I PASS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH A DROP IN T-NUMBERS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nIVO IS STILL MOVING RATHER SLOWLY BUT THE SSM/I PASS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXTRAPOLATED\r\nTRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030/5. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nSPLIT IN TWO CAMPS REGARDING THE FORECAST TRACK OF IVO. THE UKMET\r\nAND NOGAPS MODELS REMAIN THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS BY MOVING A DEEP\r\nTROPICAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\nABOUT 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR HAS\r\nALREADY BECOME A MAJOR FACTOR IN THE WEAKENING OF IVO...THE\r\nGUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS APPEAR MORE\r\nREASONABLE AT THIS TIME. THESE MODELS MOVE THE SHEARED MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF IVO TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION TURNING EAST AND STAYING SOUTH OF BAJA...POSSIBLY\r\nDISSIPATING IN 3-4 DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND SHOWS VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS SHIPS GUIDANCE...JUST IN CASE\r\nTHE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES TOWARDS\r\nBAJA. IF THE SHEAR REALLY IS MAKING A KNOCK-OUT PUNCH...WHICH\r\nAPPEARS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION...THEN IVO\r\nWOULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED TOMORROW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 20.4N 113.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.2N 112.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N 112.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 22.6N 111.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 23.1N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 24.2N 110.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 24.5N 110.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 25.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER SEVERAL HOURS WITHOUT CONVECTION...A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER\r\nHAS FORMED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IVO.  HOWEVER...WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM...WITH SATELLITE CLOUD\r\nMOTIONS INDICATING 20-25 KT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING\r\nON THE SYSTEM.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 55 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON ON THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 50 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 030/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA...AND AN EAST-WEST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 15N SOUTH OF\r\nIVO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NEAR OR\r\nJUST SOUTH OF IVO.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY SPREAD.  THE ECMWF\r\nTURNS IVO SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATES IT.  THE GFS STALLS IVO NEAR ITS\r\nCURRENT LOCATION AND DISSIPATES IT.  THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A\r\nSLOW MOTION TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 2-3 DAYS...\r\nWHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MOVE THE SYSTEM ACROSS BAJA AND INTO THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION AND SHEAR...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AGAIN CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...\r\nREACHING BAJA IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS APPARENTLY ARE UNDERFORECASTING THE AMOUNT OF\r\nSHEAR AFFECTING IVO...WHICH MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST A LITTLE\r\nPROBLEMATIC AS NONE OF THEM ARE FORECASTING SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nCAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MAINTAIN IVO AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT REACHES BAJA...WHILE SHIPS WEAKENS IT TO A\r\nDEPRESSION IN 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT\r\nMAKE A COMEBACK TODAY IVO COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 20.9N 112.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.6N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 22.3N 112.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 22.8N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N 110.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N 110.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF ONLY A BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...RESULTANT FROM THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WHILE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE 65\r\nKT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD\r\nAT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 025/5.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS\r\nFORECAST.  THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES IVO SLOWLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AND TRACK A WEAKENING SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  IN CONTRAST THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDN STALL THE\r\nCYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS WELL AS THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS.  HOWEVER\r\nIF THE CURRENT BURST OF CONVECTION WEAKENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND\r\nIVO COULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IVO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 21.3N 112.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.9N 112.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 22.4N 111.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 23.0N 111.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 110.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 24.2N 109.8W    25 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N 109.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY AND EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT\r\nT3.0 OR 45 KT.  HOWEVER...AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT IVO\r\nCOULD STILL HAVE A FEW SPOTS OF 50 KT WINDS SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING INCREASES OVER THE CYCLONE.  IVO COULD\r\nWEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  IN FACT...THE GFS...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE \r\nAND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT DISSIPATION JUST TO THE SOUTH OR\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES MAKE IT EASIER TO ESTIMATE THE CENTER LOCATION AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLOW 030/4.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE\r\nNEAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT A\r\nLINGERING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH STEERING\r\nFLOW TO CARRY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS\r\nIS ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFDL AND\r\nHWRF PREDICTIONS.\r\n\r\nOWING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTS...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA...SOUTH OF 24.5N.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 21.8N 112.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 22.2N 112.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.9N 111.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 23.6N 110.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 24.2N 110.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 25.0N 110.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2007\r\n\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON IVO. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STORM IS WEAKENING AS THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME DETACHED AND IS LOCATED WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN ADDITION...CONVECTION IS RATHER\r\nWEAK AND REMOVED FROM THE SURFACE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE DROPPING FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THE INITIAL WINDS\r\nARE LOWERED TO 40 KT.  \r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IVO HAS TURNED TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 045/5.  THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL.  GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT\r\nSHOW A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM...SUCH AS THE UKMET/NOGAPS/\r\nGFDL/HWRF MODELS...ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nTHOSE MODELS ARE WEIGHED LESS IN THE FORECAST THAN THE GFDN/GFS/\r\nECMWF MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING MORE TO THE\r\nEAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD FAVORING THE WEAKER\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE EARLIER MODEL SCENARIOS OF A FAST DISSIPATION\r\nMAY BE CORRECT GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF IVO.  HOWEVER... THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS IVO AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM\r\nIMPACTING BAJA CALIFORNIA.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA...IF NOT SOONER.  GIVEN THE FRAGILE INITIAL STATE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISING TO SEE THE STORM WEAKEN FASTER\r\nTHAN FORECAST AND...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUED...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH COULD BE DISCONTINUED OVERNIGHT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 22.1N 111.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 22.6N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 23.1N 110.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 23.7N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 24.0N 109.7W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 24.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007\r\n \r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DISSIPATED\r\nDURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 0156 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 30\r\nKT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  IVO SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n12-24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE NOW SHALLOW CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/6.\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW IVO MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BUT ALL OF THESE MODELS APPEAR TO INITIALIZE A VORTEX\r\nTHAT IS FAR TOO DEEP.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF ALL THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND IS ESSENTIALLY IN BETWEEN THE OLD FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION.  WHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS\r\nIVO MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER\r\nTODAY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD PASS\r\nJUST SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS BEEN CANCELED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 22.3N 111.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 23.3N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 23.9N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 24.6N 108.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":21,"Date":"2007-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IVO CONSISTS OF A SMALL CLUSTER OF\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nAN 0850 UTC MICROWAVE PASS FROM AMSR-E AS WELL AS THE FIRST COUPLE\r\nOF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH\r\nAND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  WITH SUCH A POORLY-\r\nDEFINED MINIMALLY-CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND DATA T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW AND IS\r\nMOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...OR 060/4.  EVEN THOUGH SOME\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TAKE IVO TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...THE\r\nINITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS WERE DEPICTING IVO AS A STRONGER\r\nCYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS\r\nAPPEAR TO INITIALIZE THE CYCLONE MORE REALISTICALLY AND DRIFT IVO\r\nON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF\r\nIVO MOVING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.  IT REMAINS HIGHLY\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD PASS JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PENINSULA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 22.1N 111.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 22.6N 110.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 23.2N 109.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 23.8N 109.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 24.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":22,"Date":"2007-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP122007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2007\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IVO AS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WITH ONLY A SMALL FRAGMENT OF CONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT\r\n60 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER\r\nMEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED ON IVO.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT\r\nSLOWLY EASTWARD...REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN A DAY OR\r\nTWO.  SOME RAINFALL IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 22.0N 110.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 22.5N 109.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.9N 108.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-19 17:00:00","Key":"EP132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007\r\n1000 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2007\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING TO WARM IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY....VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nHAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION.  DATA FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AND A DVORAK INTENSITY FROM SAB SUPPORT A 30 KT INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR\r\nENOUGH SOUTH TO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  MUCH OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE FORECAST AN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP OF THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION...WITH A TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION LOOKS RATHER BLEAK.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN 24 HOURS...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INGEST TOO\r\nMUCH OF THE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1700Z 17.1N 127.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.2N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.2N 129.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 17.2N 129.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 129.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM.  HOWEVER....A SMALL BURST OF NEW\r\nCONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT \r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nRESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS RATHER HOSTILE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING\r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM AS CONVECTION COULD INCREASE WITH THE DIURNAL\r\nMAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.  THEREAFTER...STABLE\r\nAIR...COOLER SST...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72\r\nHOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED WITH THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAS A LARGE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST\r\nOF CALIFORNIA.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DECELERATE.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH\r\nTO INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT\r\nHAS BEEN MOVED WESTWARD AT 48 AND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.4N 128.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.4N 129.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 130.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.1N 130.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.4N 130.6W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 19 2007\r\n \r\nWHAT LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTED OVER THE DEPRESSION\r\nEARLIER TODAY HAS DISSIPATED AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW VOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE CLOCK IS NOW TICKING FOR THIRTEEN-E.  HAVING SAID\r\nTHAT...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD\r\nOVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  IF A SOUTHWARD\r\nTURN WERE TO MATERIALIZE...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO SURVIVE THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nGENEROUSLY MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSLOWING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/05. ASSUMING THE\r\nCYCLONE SURVIVES...THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLEX. DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL LIKELY MEANDER OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION FOR ANOTHER 2 DAYS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 17.8N 129.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.6N 130.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.2N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 20.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE ONLY A FEW REMAINING CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE DEPRESSION.  THE HIGHEST BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS ON A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO WERE NEAR 30 KT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE AS IT LOOPS SOUTHWARD TOWARD SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS...THE\r\nCURRENT TREND OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS WEAKENING.  AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE DEPRESSION AT ITS\r\nCURRENT STRENGTH FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE SHOWING WEAKENING.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION BY LATER TODAY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE\r\nMUCH SOONER THAN SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES GIVE A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 285/6.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DEPICT A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION AND A TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF IT...TOWARD AN INTENSIFYING CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA-NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER.  THE RESULT IS A WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A VERY SLOW\r\nLOOPING MOTION AS IN THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  AN ALTERNATE\r\nSCENARIO IS FOR A VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM TO BE STEERED MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD BY THE NEAR-SURFACE TRADE WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.8N 129.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.6N 130.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 130.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.7N 129.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 20 2007\r\n \r\nONE LONELY CELL OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED TO 25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nAND THIS IS THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME.  DESPITE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR BEING VERY WEAK OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF\r\nCOOL SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TOWARD\r\nTHE CYCLONE'S DEMISE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR NO\r\nREDEVELOPMENT AND DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HR...AND THIS\r\nWILL OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RESUME SHORTLY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGE...AND HWRF\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\nABOUT 5 KT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS AND TURNS THE SYSTEM\r\nSOUTH AND THEN EAST AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN THE\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEARS THE CYCLONE AND REVERSES THE LOWER LEVEL\r\nSTEERING FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS MINUS THE UKMET...WHICH APPEARS TO MAINTAIN TOO STRONG A\r\nVORTEX AND IS AN OUTLIER FAR TO THE WEST.  THIS TRACK FORECAST DOES\r\nPROSCRIBE A SMALL LOOP FOR THE DEPRESSION...SIMILAR TO BUT QUICKER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 17.9N 130.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 130.6W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 17.3N 129.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.5N 129.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP132007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132007\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 20 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED IN THE SYSTEM DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  A 1422Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND AN 18Z SHIP REPORT NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER SUGGESTED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nALSO DROPPED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS CHOSEN AS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN LIKELY HAS DECAYED DUE TO COOL SSTS AND\r\nA STABLE AND DRY ATMOSPHERE.  GIVEN THE CONTINUED LACK OF\r\nCONVECTION...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERION FOR A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE ITS LAST ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE DISSIPATING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT\r\n4 KT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING SHOULD NEARLY COLLAPSE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A TURN\r\nBACK TO THE EAST INDICATED BETWEEN 24 TO 48 HOURS FOR THE REMNANT\r\nLOW.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 17.7N 130.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 17.6N 130.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 17.5N 130.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 17.4N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.4N 129.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER GRADUALLY GAINING ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nPACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO HAS BEEN PRODUCING MORE PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STATUS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 30 TO 35\r\nKT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE LOWER END OF\r\nTHIS RANGE SINCE THE CONVECTION IS STILL PULSATING A BIT.  SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SINCE THE WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  INCREASING SHEAR\r\nTHEREAFTER WILL PROBABLY PUT A CAP ON INTENSIFICATION...AS WILL\r\nCOOLER SSTS BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT ABOUT 285/14 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nWILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE\r\nRIDGE AND FEEL THE EFFECTS OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nGENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY MOST OF THE MODELS IN\r\nTURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nLESSEN AS TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES PULLS OUT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 15.1N 111.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.6N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.6N 113.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 17.8N 114.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 114.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING IS IMPROVING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND T-NUMBERS\r\nARE NOW 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE EXACT CENTER\r\nLOCATION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES\r\nAND I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES TO DETERMINE IF\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DEEMED A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN\r\nIS STEERING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD TURN OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION AS THE DEPRESSION\r\nROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A DIGGING\r\nTROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST AS THE\r\nSHALLOWER CIRCULATION BECOMES STEERED BY THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...\r\nONLY THE UKMET IS COUNTER TO THIS SCENARIO AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDISCOUNTS THIS MODEL AND MAKES A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS VERY BULLISH ON STRENGTHENING THE\r\nDEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM HAS ABOUT 36-48 HOURS TO INTENSITY BEFORE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AND THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES\r\nINCREASINGLY STABLE. AMAZINGLY...THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS THE\r\nSYSTEM TO ABOUT 40 KT IN THE VERY SHORT TERM...AND THE HWRF MODEL\r\nWEAKENS THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY FROM THIS POINT FORWARD. THERE IS NO\r\nREASON TO BELIEVE THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT LEAST A\r\nLITTLE IN THE AVAILABLE WINDOW...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR SO...AND FUTURE\r\nFORECASTS MAY HAVE TO CALL FOR QUICKER DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 15.3N 111.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.9N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 18.9N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 19.7N 115.8W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE EDGE OF A SOLID CONVECTIVE\r\nCLUSTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR TWO\r\nCYCLES NOW...AND WITH A CLEARER KNOWLEDGE OF WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE.\r\n\r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...AS WELL AS\r\nCONFIRMATION FROM VISIBLE IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.\r\nTHEREFORE...JULIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/10. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL CONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AFTER ABOUT 36-48\r\nHOURS...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY TAKE A\r\nWESTWARD TURN WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS\r\nSCENARIO FOLLOWS THE SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFS...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A SLOW AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHICH\r\nSHOULD ONLY LAST ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nWILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A\r\nMORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nLATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES JULIETTE OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS\r\nTHAT DEVELOPED BETWEEN SOCORRO AND CLARION ISLANDS WITHIN THE PAST\r\nWEEK. ONCE THESE FACTORS COME INTO PLAY...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 THEN DISSIPATE BY\r\nDAY 5. IF SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE THEIR WAY...JULIETTE\r\nCOULD MEET HER LESS-THAN-SHAKESPEAREAN DEMISE SOONER THAN INDICATED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 16.5N 112.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 17.7N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 19.4N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N 115.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 21.5N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 21.7N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 21.7N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIETTE IS AT\r\nLEAST PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE EAST SIDE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nAPPEARANCE OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35\r\nKT.  THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WHICH IS ALLOWING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND NONE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE HAS JUMPED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AS\r\nTHE 6 HR MOTION FROM 18Z-00Z WAS 355/4.  SINCE THEN...THE STORM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING 335/7.  THE SYSTEM IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD\r\nSTEER JULIETTE IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR AS\r\nLONG AS THE CYCLONE RETAINS VERTICAL DEPTH.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A\r\nWESTWARD TURN AND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...BUT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BY CALLING FOR A WESTWARD TURN AS JULIETTE\r\nWEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO\r\nPERSIST OR INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE JULIETTE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 36-48\r\nHR...AND PROBABLY SPEED THE WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR 24 HR OF STRENGTHENING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45\r\nKT...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR.  MUCH OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR AN EARLIER DISSIPATION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nJULIETTE WILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.2N 112.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 113.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.3N 114.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 22.0N 115.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007\r\n \r\nAN AMSU PASS AT 0520Z HELPED ESTABLISH THE LOCATION AND MOTION OF\r\nJULIET...WHICH ARE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND 329/9...RESPECTIVELY.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nTHAT HAS PREVENTED IT FROM BECOMING APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED. \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45\r\nKT...A QUIKSCAT EDGE PASS AT 02Z DID NOT SUPPORT WINDS THAT HIGH. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nJULIET IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.  AS LONG AS JULIET MAINTAINS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...IT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN BETWEEN THESE\r\nFEATURES...WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN ANOTHER\r\n36 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH.  AT THAT TIME...MOST OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION DRAMATICALLY IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STRATO-CU FILLED NORTHERLIES WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH STILL ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOF SO...AND A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD IS POSSIBLE. \r\nAS MENTIONED ABOVE...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ARE LESS THAN TWO DAYS\r\nAWAY...AT WHICH TIME THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER WATER AND SHEAR\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 17.6N 112.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N 114.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.4N 114.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES ARE UNCERTAIN SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION\r\nESTIMATES WEIGH HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY.  SINCE THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER IS NOT WELL KNOWN...THIS ALSO LENDS UNCERTAINTY TO THE\r\nESTIMATED INTENSITY.  IF THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THEN THE WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO 45 KT AS GIVEN\r\nBY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  HOWEVER IF THE CENTER IS NEAR THE EDGE OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION...JULIETTE IS A WEAKER STORM.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE.  THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED BY THE\r\nSHIPS LGEM GUIDANCE.  WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO...HOWEVER...JULIETTE\r\nWILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE\r\nAIR.  WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY WITHIN 72 HOURS OR\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 335/10.  JULIETTE CONTINUES TO\r\nPROCEED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA.  THIS\r\nREGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...THE\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY\r\nTHE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHIS LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE WEAK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEP\r\nTHE DISSIPATING CYCLONE STATIONARY IN 2-3 DAYS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND NOT FAR FROM THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 18.7N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.9N 113.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.7N 114.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 115.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL-EMBEDDED\r\nIN THE DENSE OVERCAST...WITH SOME HINTS OF INNER BANDING FEATURES. \r\nJULIETTE WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY...NEAR 50 KT. \r\nHOWEVER ON RECENT IMAGES THE CLOUD TOPS ARE SEEN TO BE WARMING...SO\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 45 KT.  THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY\r\nBE PAST PEAK INTENSITY AND IS HEADED FOR A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING\r\nTO REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 2-3 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR\r\nSOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP IN THE CYCLONE.  IN\r\nFACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL RUNS WEAKEN JULIETTE MORE RAPIDLY\r\nTHAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER THE MOTION IS STILL\r\nESTIMATED TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330/11.  JULIETTE IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO AND A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS THE STORM LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CIRCULATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IT SHOULD\r\nBE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THIS FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nTO BE VERY WEAK...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE\r\nMOTION IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM FORECAST BUT IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 19.7N 113.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 21.2N 114.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N 115.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 115.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 24.2N 116.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 30 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...BUT IT PERSISTS AND THE MOST RECENT BURST EXHIBITS CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED AND HARD\r\nTO PRECISELY LOCATE...MAKING SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FAIRLY\r\nUNCERTAIN AND DISPARATE...WITH 00Z INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM\r\n45 TO 55 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT GIVEN THE\r\nINCONSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN.  ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE\r\nSOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO A WEAKENING TREND APPEARS\r\nIMMINENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER PACE OF DECLINE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR ROUGHLY\r\n320/9...IN BETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST.  AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN IT SHOULD\r\nDECELERATE IN THE WEAK LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST TAKES JULIETTE AND ITS EVENTUAL\r\nREMNANT LOW ON A PATH THAT BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...ALONG THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND COMES ESSENTIALLY TO\r\nA HALT IN A FEW DAYS AROUND THE TIME OF DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 20.2N 114.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 21.6N 115.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 22.9N 116.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 23.8N 116.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 24.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007\r\n \r\nA SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF JULIETTE IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nLAGGING BEHIND THE DEEP CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 02Z ALSO\r\nPLACED THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA INCLUDED A 50 KT VECTOR THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN\r\nVALID...BUT GIVEN THAT THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION SEEM TO BE\r\nSEPARATING...I'D PREFER TO KEEP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 45 KT.\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...SO A\r\nWEAKENING TREND APPEARS IMMINENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL. \r\n \r\nWITH THE EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 330/9. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. JULIETTE HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING IN BETWEEN\r\nA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS\r\nWEST. AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN IT SHOULD DECELERATE IN THE WEAK\r\nLOWER-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND COMES ESSENTIALLY TO A HALT AFTER 36 HOURS AROUND\r\nTHE TIME OF DISSIPATION.  IF THE CYCLONE SUCCUMBS TO THE SHEAR\r\nEARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND THIS PROCESS MAY ALREADY BE\r\nBEGINNING...THEN THE STALL WOULD OCCUR EARLIER. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 21.0N 114.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 22.1N 115.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 24.3N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 24.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 01 2007\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN FINDING THE\r\nCENTER OF JULIETTE...WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A\r\nRATHER LINEAR NORTH TO SOUTH AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY.  A\r\nLATE-ARRIVING QUIKSCAT PASS CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND VECTORS.\r\nASSUMING WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF\r\nJULIETTE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8.  THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...AS JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND\r\nTROUGH TO ITS WEST. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW...JULIETTE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nDECELERATE IN A VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING PATTERN. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT\r\nWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE\r\nAMSR-E MICROWAVE DATA.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 21.7N 115.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.7N 115.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 23.6N 116.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.2N 116.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 24.5N 116.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 24.7N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW\r\nCOMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF A SHRINKING AND WEAKENING AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED\r\nAND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT AHEAD...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 36 HOURS.  IF JULIETTE DOES NOT \r\nGENERATE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS IT COULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/8. JULIETTE HAS NOT DECELERATED IN ITS\r\nFORWARD MOTION YET...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR SOON AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THIS CONTINUED\r\nPACE. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 22.7N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.7N 115.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 24.7N 116.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 25.1N 116.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP142007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 01 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION STARTED SEPARATING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT\r\nABOUT 18Z.  NO NEW CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP SINCE THEN...AND THE\r\nREMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE JUST CIRRUS DEBRIS RACING NORTHWARD. \r\nTHE EXPOSED SWIRL DOES NOT PRESENTLY QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE... AND REDEVELOPMENT OF A MEANINGFUL AMOUNT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY...DUE TO CONTINUING STRONG SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND SINCE THE UNDERLYING SSTS ARE QUICKLY COOLING AS THE\r\nSYSTEM PROCEEDS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/8.  IN MARGINAL\r\nCIRCUMSTANCES WE MIGHT CONTINUE ADVISORIES AS A PRECAUTION...BUT IN\r\nTHIS CASE THE CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT I AM COMFORTABLE MAKING THIS\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ON JULIETTE.  THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nDECELERATE AS IT CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...UNTIL IT LIKELY\r\nDISSIPATES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 23.4N 115.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 23.9N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 24.3N 116.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 24.6N 116.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2007-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION\r\nTO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS PERSISTED JUST WEST OF THE CENTER FOR 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS...AND THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON\r\nTHIS DATA.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOME MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD\r\nRELAX A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO ALLOWING SOME OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN\r\n2-3 DAYS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN\r\nWEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 50 KT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS THOUGHT TO BE A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AT 360/2.\r\nTHE EVENTUAL TRACK IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT\r\nCURRENTLY EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.  CONVERSELY...A STRONGER\r\nAND DEEPER CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO MOVE WESTWARD...ALBEIT\r\nSLOWLY...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES\r\nALONG 22N LATITUDE.  SINCE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nTO BE OPTIMAL FOR STRENGTHENING...A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nIS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 15.0N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.2N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.7N 107.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N 107.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2007-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2007\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ESSENTIALLY A\r\nBLOB OF COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES IN\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE VERY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS\r\nARE RADIATING OUTWARD SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...MOST OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS CONFINED TO THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT MARGINAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH BUT THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HIGHLY\r\nDEPENDENT ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS TO THE EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE THE CENTER POSITION CANNOT BE DETERMINED\r\nWITH MUCH CERTAINTY ON THE INFRARED IMAGES...I AM RELUCTANT TO\r\nUPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...HOWEVER...THE TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS GUESSED TO BE 330/2.  A VERY WEAK STEERING\r\nPATTERN PREVAILS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS\r\nA BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION DUE\r\nTO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA.  AFTER THE\r\nTROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST OF BAJA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...SOME WEAK\r\nRIDGING IS LIKELY TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP SOME\r\nEASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AS IT IS PULLED PARTIALLY INTO A BROAD\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE TO ITS EAST.  HOWEVER A SLOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL MODEL SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE SOME ABATEMENT OF THE SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...ICON.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 15.3N 108.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.4N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.6N 108.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.8N 108.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 16.2N 109.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 16.8N 109.3W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2007-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2007\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS EXPOSED EAST OF THE LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUDS TOPS...DUE\r\nTO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.  THIS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE EARLIER ESTIMATES AND SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION MOVED VERY\r\nLITTLE OVERNIGHT.  LIGHTNING DATA REVEAL THAT THE AREA OF ACTIVE\r\nCONVECTION IS RATHER SMALL...WITH MOST OF THE COLD CLOUDS BEING\r\nASSOCIATED WITH CIRRUS OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH...BUT THE CENTER LOCATIONS OF THESE FIXES WERE CLOSER TO\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER IS\r\nFARTHER EAST...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  MOST OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ARE LESS BULLISH IN\r\nDECREASING THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SHEAR 15 KT OR GREATER THROUGHOUT MOST OF\r\nTHE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nLOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 330/2.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS RESULT FROM THE LACK OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...DUE TO A TROUGH APPROACHING THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSION...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME EASTWARD MOTION\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT COULD GET\r\nPULLED EASTWARD BY A LARGE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE NEAR\r\nMEXICO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE TROUGH\r\nMOVES EASTWARD...WEAK RIDGING IS FORECAST BUILD NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE....WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS\r\nSOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD MOTION\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IN THESE MODELS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THOSE MODELS...WHICH IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 15.2N 108.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.3N 108.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.6N 108.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 15.9N 108.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 16.3N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 16.9N 109.4W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 18.3N 111.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2007-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...EXPOSING\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY WELL-DEFINED. \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT AROUND 1330Z PROVIDED SEEMINGLY RELIABLE\r\nWIND RETRIEVALS OF 25-30 KT...WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE THAT WERE LIKELY INFLATED BY THE CONVECTION AT THE TIME.\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO\r\nPERSIST AT ROUGHLY ITS CURRENT MAGNITUDE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FIVE\r\nDAYS...SO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY.  MOST OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES TOO...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS\r\nGIVEN HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING IN THE SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY DURING\r\nTHE PAST 12-18 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS ARE OBVIOUSLY WEAK...AND\r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nSURROUNDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A\r\nWEAK AND NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...BUT THE SYSTEM IS NOT DEEP ENOUGH TO RESPOND...AND THERE\r\nARE NO LOW-LEVEL STEERING MECHANISMS IN PLAY. THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nTRACKS GO IN ALL KINDS OF DIRECTIONS. SOME OF THEM...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS...FORECAST NO SIGNIFICANT NET MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SUPPORTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF A NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 15.1N 108.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.1N 108.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.1N 108.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 15.0N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2007-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2007\r\n \r\nCONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED WITH THE DEPRESSION. \r\nTHERE IS A SINGLE RAGGED BAND ABOUT 120 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WITH SMALL AND BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 18Z...AND THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  \r\n\r\nWITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER...THE\r\nMOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE MEAN CENTER HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. STEERING\r\nCURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND ARE CHARACTERIZED BY A LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nGYRE AT LOW LEVELS AND MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT THE UPPER-LEVELS.\r\nTHERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE NET FLOW ACROSS THE CYCLONE IN THE MIDDLE\r\nTROPOSPHERE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. GIVEN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...THE TRACK OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTHE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN NEAR ITS CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...A COMMON THEME IS A\r\nCONTINUATION OF A CYCLONIC LOOP...ENDING WITH SOME NET WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...ALSO SHOWS A SMALL LOOP...BUT WITH\r\nLITTLE NET DISPLACEMENT OVER THE FIVE DAY PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND IS NOT\r\nFAR FROM THE STABLE STRATO-CUMULUS FIELD TO THE WEST AND NORTH. \r\nTHERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS ABOUT HOW THE\r\nUPPER EASTERLIES ARE GOING TO EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH\r\nTHE GFS MAINTAINING THE SHEAR...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET LESSEN IT\r\nSOMEWHAT.  BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 50\r\nKT...WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nFOLLOWS THE GFS/SHIPS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 14.7N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 14.7N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 14.5N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 14.8N 108.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.9N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 15.2N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 15.5N 110.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2007-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS STILL NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nSOME SUGGESTION OF A BROKEN BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE CLUSTER REMAINS SOMEWHAT\r\nREMOVED FROM THE CENTER HOWEVER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nAN SSM/I OVERPASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO WAS HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE\r\nCENTER POSITION.  ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD\r\nDRIFT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS PRACTICALLY STATIONARY.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE WITH\r\nVERY WEAK...OR NO...MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING.  THE GFS DOES BUILD\r\nA WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY NOT\r\nBE ABLE TO ESCAPE FROM THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN WHICH\r\nIT IS NOW EMBEDDED.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE\r\nDIVERSIFIED.  THE ECMWF AND U.K. MET. OFFICE MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM\r\nNEAR THE MEXICAN COAST IN 5 DAYS WHILE OTHER MODELS MOVE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD...NORTHWESTWARD...OR WESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS A\r\nSMALL LOOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO FOLLOWED BY A VERY SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THIS IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFS SOLUTIONS...ALBEIT NOT AS FAST.\r\n\r\nAN EASTERLY SHEARING ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS EXISTS NOT FAR TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS FORECAST FIELDS...\r\nINDICATES THAT SIGNIFICANT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nADVISORY PACKAGES.  THIS IS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF PREDICTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 14.4N 108.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.3N 108.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.4N 108.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 14.6N 108.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 14.7N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":7,"Date":"2007-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nWITH THE CENTER REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB AND AN OBSERVATION OF 35 KNOTS FROM SHIP A8GT6 SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  KIKO IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 5 DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nKIKO HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE SPLIT WITH SOME BRINGING KIKO\r\nEASTWARD TOWARDS MEXICO AND OTHERS BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nFORCING KIKO WESTWARD. MOST OF THE TIME...THIS MODEL SPLIT IS AN\r\nINDICATION THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK.\r\nTHEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION OR A NORTHWARD DRIFT IS INDICATED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL AND SLOW TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 14.2N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.3N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.0N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.3N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":8,"Date":"2007-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRENGTHENING EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER\r\nBECAME FAR REMOVED FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DUE TO\r\nEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT KIKO HAS\r\nWEAKENED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nHOWEVER...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD STILL OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND\r\nLITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREAFTER...AS\r\nTHE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nSLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A TURN\r\nTO THE LEFT AS INDICATED BY THE GFS IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE BOTTOM\r\nLINE IS THAT KIKO IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 180 N MI IN\r\nFIVE DAYS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 14.1N 108.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 14.1N 108.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 14.5N 107.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":9,"Date":"2007-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2007\r\n \r\nKIKO CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES...\r\nAS ITS CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION.\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY...AS DOES AN AMSU PASS FROM 2039Z.  HOWEVER...A HIGH-RES\r\nASCAT PASS FROM 1716Z INDICATED NO WINDS HIGHER THAN 30 KT.  AS THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY\r\nSINCE THE TIME OF THE ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT \r\n30 KT.\r\n \r\nKIKO IS MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT DUE TO THE\r\nCOMBINED INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MONSOONAL TROUGH...IN WHICH KIKO IS\r\nEMBEDDED...AND A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS\r\nTHE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL\r\nBECOME ESTABLISHED AND KIKO SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS BY TURNING TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE GFS...UKMET...HWRF...AND GFDL.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE SSTS REMAIN A RATHER TOASTY 29C UNDERNEATH KIKO FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS MUCH LESS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20 KT OR MORE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR\r\nAT LEAST THE NEXT TWO DAYS...ALONG WITH A FAIRLY STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX SOMEWHAT BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND\r\nTHE DECAY-SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPOND TO\r\nTHIS BY INTENSIFYING KIKO TO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WIN OUT AND KIKO\r\nCOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE THE DECREASED SHEAR KICKS IN...AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 14.0N 107.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.1N 107.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.5N 106.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N 107.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 16.2N 107.6W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":10,"Date":"2007-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND...IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nLOCATED BACK UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0136\r\nUTC SHOWED SOME 30 KT WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS...SO IT IS\r\nREASONABLE TO ASSUME THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING\r\nIN AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION.  THEREFORE KIKO IS BEING UPGRADED\r\nBACK TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nA RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS AND AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAS EDGED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 070/2.  THE STEERING\r\nCURRENT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED.  KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND APPEARS TO BE EXECUTING A COUNTERCLOCKWISE\r\nLOOP AT THIS TIME.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN A WELL-DEFINED\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST FIELDS FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS VERY WEAKLY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT IS PREDICTED\r\nTO WEAKEN THEREAFTER.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED\r\nTO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE.  ACCORDINGLY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT NOT\r\nAS FAR EAST AND NORTH AS THE GUNA CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n\r\nTHE SHAPE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND HIGH-CLOUD MOTIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT KIKO.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS WIND FORECAST...SHOWS A RELAXATION OF\r\nTHE SHEAR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS PREDICTION AND ALSO NOT FAR FROM THE GFDI FORECAST\r\nEXCEPT NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHEN THE LATTER MODEL SHOWS\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE 12-FT SEAS RADII OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WERE ESTIMATED\r\nFROM AN OBSERVATION FROM A NOAA SHIP WITH CALL SIGN WTEJ.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 14.2N 107.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.4N 107.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.8N 106.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 15.2N 106.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 15.7N 106.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 16.7N 106.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":11,"Date":"2007-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2007\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KIKO IS VERY HARD TO FIND THIS MORNING. \r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES ALONG WITH RECENT AMSU AND QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nSHOW THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST. \r\nTHE ADVISORY POSITION IS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE ELONGATION NEAR\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...ALTHOUGH THE VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT\r\nHINT THAT THE ACTUAL CENTER MAY BE FARTHER TO THE EAST.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...WHILE HAVING RAIN CONTAMINATION PROBLEMS...SUGGESTS\r\nAN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 35 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT\r\nAT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 045/4.  KIKO IS SOUTH OF A\r\nBREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREE ON FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR AS THE U.S. TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.  THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW KIKO TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AGAIN AS A SECOND\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE MODELS\r\nARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHAT THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DO TO\r\nKIKO.  THE ECMWF HAS A DEEP ENOUGH TROUGH TO CAUSE KIKO TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE GFS...THE BAM MODELS...AND\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SHOW KIKO MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE RIDGE. \r\nTHE UKMET AND NOGAPS CALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER. \r\nIT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nKIKO CONTINUES UNDER ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER 24\r\nHR...WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...AND THE\r\nSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF ALL FORECAST KIKO TO REACH 55-60 KT BY 120\r\nHR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER\r\nINTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nSOME RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...AND CHANGES IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 14.8N 106.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.2N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 106.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.1N 106.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 16.7N 106.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 108.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":12,"Date":"2007-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF KIKO HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ELONGATED FROM\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST AND THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO\r\nTHE WEST BY 25 KT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  OVERALL...THE\r\nSYSTEM GIVES THE IMPRESSION OF BEING A SMALL LOW EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nITCZ OR MONSOON TROUGH.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT BASED ON THE RAGGED APPEARANCE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER\r\nEAST THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT...SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS A\r\nRE-LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 080/6.\r\nKIKO IS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED\r\nBY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES....AND\r\nMUCH OF THE CURRENT MOTION MAY BE DUE TO LOW-LEVEL STEERING. \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO BY 72 HR AS THE U.S. TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.  IN\r\nTHEORY...THIS SHOULD STOP THE CURRENT MOTION AND ALLOW KIKO TO TURN\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD.  WHILE MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWARD TURN IN\r\n12 HR...THE BAMS AND ECMWF CONTINUE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT FOR 36 HR\r\nOR MORE.  AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK CALLS FOR 12 MORE HR OF EASTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION.  AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE WEAKENS AS A\r\nSECOND DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nMODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT ON WHAT THE SECOND TROUGH WILL DO\r\nTO KIKO.  THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS HAVE A DEEPER TROUGH FARTHER\r\nWEST...AND BRING KIKO NEAR OR OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE GFS AND\r\nTHE UKMET HAVE THE TROUGH FARTHER EAST AND RIDGING NORTHWEST OF\r\nKIKO...AND TURN THE STORM WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST.  GIVEN THE\r\nDISAGREEMENT...THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED WELL TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND\r\nMOTION.  IT LIES WELL EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WEST OF THE\r\nECMWF.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AFTER 24\r\nHR...WITH GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FORECAST BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING IF THE SYSTEM\r\nDOESN'T LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN THE ITCZ BEFORE THEN.  THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS CALL FOR A 50-60 KT INTENSITY BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHILE HWRF CALLS FOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND INTERESTS THERE SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KIKO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 14.6N 105.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 14.9N 104.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N 104.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.1N 104.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.7N 105.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.5N 106.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":13,"Date":"2007-10-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2007\r\n\r\nNEW THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE FIRED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO AFTER\r\nIT WAS EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THIS\r\nSYSTEM STILL HAS A RATHER ELONGATED SHAPE AND IT IS UNKNOWN HOW\r\nSEPARATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FROM THE ITCZ.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nCHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.   GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THIS\r\nSYSTEM WILL ABATE IN A DAY OR TWO WHICH...ASSUMING THE SYSTEM\r\nSURVIVES...WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT THE\r\nSHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN THE DISHEVELED PATTERN ON\r\nSATELLITE...I WOULD PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE STORM SHOWS MORE SIGNS\r\nOF ORGANIZATION BEFORE JUMPING ON THE HURRICANE KIKO BANDWAGON.\r\nHOWEVER THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARDS AT DAYS 3-5 IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7...WHICH INDICATES A SMALL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE LEFT IN THE LAST SIX HOURS.  KIKO APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT\r\nUP IN LOW-LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nITCZ.   THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN A DAY OR\r\nSO DUE TO A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE\r\nSHOULD FORCE THE STORM TO TURN LEFTWARD WITH TIME AND CAUSE A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE BIG QUESTION\r\nIS WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TOO CLOSE BY THEN TO MISS MEXICO. \r\nMOST MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO...\r\nESPECIALLY THE 18Z UKMET MODEL RUN.  THE ECMWF/GFDN/NOGAPS/UKMET\r\nMODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER OR CLOSE TO MEXICO DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SOME THREAT TO\r\nMEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  WATCHES MAY HAVE TO BE ISSUED\r\nTOMORROW...PARTICULARLY IF THIS EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 14.8N 104.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.2N 104.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N 103.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.8N 103.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 17.4N 104.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 105.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 20.0N 107.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":14,"Date":"2007-10-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD\r\nAREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.  THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION RELIES HEAVILY ON EXTRAPOLATION.  WHILE\r\nCONVECTION APPEARS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\nKIKO CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS THUS\r\nFAR LIMITED STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ASSUMING THE\r\nCYCLONE SURVIVES...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT THE SHIPS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS ALL SHOW\r\nKIKO BECOMING A HURRICANE.   GIVEN THE RATHER BROAD CIRCULATION AND\r\nTHE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BELOW THE GUIDANCE AND MAINTAINS KIKO AS A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/6. THE TRACK FORECAST HINGES ON\r\nWHETHER OR NOT KIKO CAN BREAK FREE FROM THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.  IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK AND\r\nPOORLY DEFINED...IT COULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  CONVERSELY...IF THE CYCLONE\r\nWERE TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME DEEPER...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.\r\nFURTHER COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND\r\nINTERACTION AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF\r\nMEXICO.  SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO HAVE A WEST BIAS IN CASES\r\nWHERE CYCLONES MOVE CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND IS RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WATCHES AND/OR\r\nWARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.4N 104.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.9N 103.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.7N 103.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 103.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.2N 104.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 108.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":15,"Date":"2007-10-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 18 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KIKO IS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THAN 24 HR AGO...WITH A LESS ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE\r\nPAST 24 HR...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BECOME MORE INVOLVED\r\nWITH THE CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT\r\nRAGGED...AND BASED ON THIS AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF KIKO MOVED FASTER DURING THE NIGHT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/8.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED SHOULD SLOW DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR AS PRESSURES RISE OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nOVER THE UNITED STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY THE CENTER TURNING TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHWEST NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. \r\nAFTER 48 HR...A SECOND DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nAND WESTERN U.S.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON\r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH AND ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO.  THE ECMWF\r\nAND NOGAPS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY FARTHER TO THE WEST...\r\nWITH KIKO TURNING NORTHWARD INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE UKMET AND\r\nGFS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO AMPLIFY FARTHER TO THE EAST...WITH\r\nRIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF KIKO CAUSING A WESTWARD TRACK INTO THE\r\nOPEN PACIFIC.  RIGHT NOW...IT CANNOT BE DETERMINED WHICH OF THESE\r\nEXTREMES WILL BE RIGHT...SO THE FORECAST TRACK WILL COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THEM WITH A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THEM TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING...WITH\r\nTHE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING THE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FASTER INTENSIFICATION THEN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH KIKO REACHING A 55 KT INTENSITY BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER BRUSHES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HR.  KIKO COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IF THE CENTER STAYS FARTHER OFFSHORE...AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT POSITION AND NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRE WARNINGS AND\r\nWATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 16.4N 103.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 103.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 103.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 103.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 104.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 19.5N 105.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 106.0W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 107.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":16,"Date":"2007-10-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007\r\n \r\nAFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER AND IMPROVING CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  THE BANDING HAS NOT YET\r\nINCREASED ENOUGH TO RAISE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM\r\nCIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL BROAD AND HARD TO PIN DOWN EVEN WITH MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY...BUT IT MAY BE A LITTLE WEST OF THE POSITION IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/3. \r\nIN THE FIRST 48 HR OR SO...KIKO SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AS PRESSURES RISE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IN THE WAKE OF\r\nAN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.  AFTER 48 HR...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE HANDLING OF\r\nA SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.S.  THE GFS\r\nCONTINUES TO BUILD ENOUGH RIDGE BETWEEN KIKO AND THE TROUGH TO TURN\r\nTHE STORM WESTWARD.  IN A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN...\r\nTHE ECMWF NOW SHOWS MORE RIDGING NORTH OF KIKO AND A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTO WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE GFS.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO\r\nBUILD THE RIDGE AFTER 48 HR...BUT IN A TWIST MOVES THE STORM\r\nNORTHWARD INTO MEXICO BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.  THE NOGAPS\r\nAMPLIFIES THE TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A PATTERN THAT\r\nWOULD CAUSE A NORTHWARD MOTION INTO MEXICO.  THE GFDL AND HWRF CALL\r\nFOR A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A MUCH FASTER SPEED THAN\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SIMILAR TO BUT\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT\r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE BUILDING RIDGE.  THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS LEFT OF AND SOMEWHAT\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AT ABOUT THE SPEED OF THE ECMWF\r\nAND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...WITH\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THEM TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  SINCE KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FARTHER\r\nFROM LAND...THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nINCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...AND THEN PEAK AT\r\nABOUT 96 HR AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR.  THE NEW INTENSITIES\r\nARE HIGHER THAN THOSE OF THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT BELOW THOSE OF THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.8N 103.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.2N 103.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.7N 103.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 18.3N 104.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 106.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 107.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 109.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":17,"Date":"2007-10-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 18 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nEVENING WITH BANDS OF CURVED CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  A 0100 UTC MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE CENTER HAS REFORMED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPOSITION. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION\r\nOF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\nMINIMAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35\r\nKT.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE\r\nSTAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO.  VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR HAS ALSO LESSENED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE SEPARATE\r\nFROM THE ITCZ.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF\r\nTHE STORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A MODERATE INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.  IN THE\r\nLONGER-RANGE...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AND KIKO'S INTENSITY COULD\r\nLEVEL OFF BY THEN...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT\r\nPOSSIBILITY.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR A MUCH\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KIKO HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK TODAY...EVEN\r\nWITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE RECENT CENTER REFORMATION\r\nDOESN'T HELP MATTERS.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE STORM IS\r\nMOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST...315/3.  THIS LEFTWARD TURN MAY BE\r\nDUE TO A RIDGE RE-BUILDING OVER MEXICO FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF A\r\nDEEP LAYERED TROUGH NOW OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  WITH\r\nRIDGING FORECAST OVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT KIKO WILL BE STEERED IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. \r\nMOST OF THE MODELS HAVE ALSO PICKED UP ON THIS NEW MOTION AND NOW\r\nEITHER KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO OR HAVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE JUST BRUSH THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE WEST BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.7N 104.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.2N 104.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.7N 105.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.5N 107.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":18,"Date":"2007-10-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0041Z SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nWERE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS\r\nBEEN INCONSISTENT...ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT FEW IMAGES SHOW A\r\nFAIRLY HEALTHY BURST IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  DESPITE 06Z\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT FOR NOW BASED ON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH\r\nWERE ALSO USED TO CONTRACT THE 34-KT WIND RADII.  CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nRIPE FOR STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...AS KIKO WILL SOON FIND ITSELF\r\nRIGHT BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND STILL OVER VERY WARM\r\nWATERS JUST OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KIKO TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE MOST OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY AT LONGER RANGES\r\nHAS BEEN REDUCED SLIGHTLY IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GUIDANCE THAT\r\nSEEMS TO RESPOND TO A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR AND EVENTUALLY\r\nCOOLER SSTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES DERIVED FROM AN ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES\r\nAND AN SSMIS IMAGE AT 0317Z...COMBINED WITH RECENT GOES INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...DO NOT REVEAL MUCH MOTION OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT\r\nHINT AT A NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS AN UNCERTAIN 315/3.  THE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO FOR 2-3 DAYS...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES PRIMARILY IN THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED...AS THE CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD A PERSISTENT BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF KIKO AS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER CYCLONE PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THAT TURN OCCURS VARIES WILDLY AMONG\r\nTHE MODELS...WITH THE GFDL FARTHEST NORTH NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE GFS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AT LONG RANGES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 16.7N 104.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 105.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 105.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 18.1N 106.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.7N 107.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 21.0N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 21.5N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":19,"Date":"2007-10-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT KIKO IS SLOWLY BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE THAT MAY BE THE\r\nBEGINNING OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ACCOMPANIED BY A BAND IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 52 AND 45 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...\r\nAND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN NOW SHOW 10 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER KIKO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/3.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD STEER KIKO SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  BEYOND THAT TIME...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS\r\nOVER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nITS EFFECTS ON KIKO.  THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ALL\r\nFORECAST THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW KIKO\r\nTO TURN WESTWARD BY 72-96 HR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE TURN\r\nEARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS ALL SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND MOVING FAR\r\nENOUGH TO THE WEST TO TURN KIKO NORTHWARD.  THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT APPEAR TO BE TOO FAST WITH THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION.  EVEN NOW...IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH OF THESE\r\nSCENARIOS WILL VERIFY.  THEREFORE...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN FORECAST IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OVERALL...THE TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nKIKO SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nCALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 68 KT...THE GFDL 88 KT...AND THE HWRF\r\n90 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE WITH A\r\nFORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT.  AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR AS KIKO REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.1N 105.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 105.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.9N 106.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.5N 107.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 20.5N 108.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 109.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":20,"Date":"2007-10-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS\r\nINCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF KIKO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES BACK AROUND 12Z WERE NEAR 50 KT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS DATA.  THERE IS\r\nGOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR OUTFLOW\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/4.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR SHOULD STEER KIKO SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME\r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ITS EFFECTS ON KIKO.  THE GFS...GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL FORECAST THE TROUGH TO\r\nDEVELOP FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD BY\r\n72-96 HR...WITH THE GFS SHOWING THE TURN EARLIER AND FARTHER SOUTH\r\nTHAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN STILL SHOW THE\r\nTROUGH CUTTING OFF AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO TURN KIKO\r\nNORTHWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF REMAIN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. \r\nAT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION\r\nFOR THE TROUGH AND CALL FOR KIKO TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER\r\n72 HR...WITH A TRACK NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACKS OF THOSE MODELS. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR...\r\nAND THEN IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nKIKO SHOULD REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 48-72\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nNOW CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT...THE GFDL 74 KT...AND THE\r\nHWRF 108 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST AGAIN COMPROMISES BETWEEN\r\nTHESE WITH A FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING SHEAR AS KIKO REACHES COOLER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND...WITH MORE WEAKENING SHOWN THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTER DUE TO AN EXPECTED FASTER MOTION INTO THE COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.5N 105.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.8N 106.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 18.4N 106.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 19.2N 107.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 20.0N 107.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 110.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":21,"Date":"2007-10-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 19 2007\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...THE ARE ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AT THIS TIME...AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW\r\nAND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED. DVORAK T-\r\nNUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 45 KNOTS...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS.  THERE IS A\r\nDISCREPANCY BETWEEN SHIPS AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. SHIPS ONLY\r\nSHOWS A MODEST STRENGTHENING AND BARELY BRINGS KIKO TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH WHILE THE TWO OTHER MODELS MAKE KIKO A STRONGER HURRICANE.\r\nTHERE ARE NO APPARENT REASONS WHY KIKO SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN. THE\r\nSHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE KIKO IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. GIVEN THESE\r\nCONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INSISTS ON A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND KIKO SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY OR\r\nTWO.\r\n \r\nKIKO HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES\r\nAT 4 KNOTS. A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL LIKELY KEEP KIKO ON\r\nTHE SAME GENERAL SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...I\r\nEMPHASIZE...HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND THE\r\nECMWF DEVELOP A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF KIKO AND EVENTUALLY FORCE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD BEFORE REACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE\r\nEQUALLY RELIABLE UK AND GFDL/HWRF GROUP SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA OR EVEN TO THE AREA OF CABO\r\nCORRIENTES AND THE SEA OF CORTES. AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...TURNING KIKO WESTWARD JUST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND AWAY FROM MEXICO.  HOWEVER...WE MUST BE READY TO\r\nMAKE A BIG CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IF THE NORTHWARD TREND SUGGESTED\r\nBY THE UK/GFDL/HWRF RUNS BEGINS TO MATERIALIZE. THIS OPTION COULD\r\nRESULT IN A STRONGER CYCLONE SINCE THE OCEAN IS VERY WARM NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. SO STAY TUNED.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 17.7N 105.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 18.1N 106.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 19.0N 107.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.7N 107.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N 114.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":22,"Date":"2007-10-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007\r\n \r\nUNTIL ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO...KIKO WAS NOT PRODUCING ALL THAT MUCH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...BUT A HEALTHY BURST HAS RECENTLY ERUPTED OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 45-55 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES FAVORING THE LOWER END OF THAT RANGE.  GIVEN THE INCREASE\r\nIN CONVECTION SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 50 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS KIKO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING\r\nFOR KIKO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS GIVEN THE WEAK\r\nWIND SHEAR AND VERY WARM SSTS.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY PEAKS AT 75\r\nKT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL DECLINE THEREAFTER AS SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND SSTS EVENTUALLY COOL BENEATH THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nKIKO CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 305/4...TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO ERODE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  ALL OF THE MODELS EVENTUALLY SHOW THAT SYSTEM PROCEEDING\r\nEASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO\r\nAND CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS.  IN RESPONSE TO THAT PATTERN\r\nCHANGE...THE MODELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DIVERGENT BEYOND ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.  THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nBUT HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT ON THE LATEST RUN...TAKING\r\nKIKO NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\n48-72 HOURS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE MODEL SPREAD...SHOWING A WESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT FOR ME TO\r\nANTICIPATE A WESTWARD TURN THAT SOON...GIVEN THAT KIKO SHOULD BE A\r\nDEEP SYSTEM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO ITS\r\nNORTH UNTIL ABOUT BEYOND 48 HOURS FROM NOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST LEANS A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION AND IS A BIT\r\nFASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST STARTING ON DAY\r\n2...BUT IT STILL CALLS FOR KIKO TO TURN WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT\r\nTHIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS MODEL\r\nSPREAD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.7N 106.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.3N 106.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.1N 107.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 19.9N 108.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.7N 108.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 21.7N 110.7W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":23,"Date":"2007-10-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KIKO HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ALMOST\r\nSURROUNDED BY A SOMEWHAT RAGGED OUTER BAND.  OVERSHOOTING\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE CDO ARE COLDER THAN -80C.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO\r\nGOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE WEST...WHERE IT IS POOR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/4.  KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED\r\nBY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES AMPLIFIES SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nCOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH...WITH\r\nALL LARGE-SCALE MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS FORECASTING THE TROUGH TO\r\nMOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE\r\nNORTH OF KIKO.  THIS SHOULD TURN KIKO MORE WESTWARD IN THE 48-72 HR\r\nTIME FRAME.   HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES NOT TOTALLY AGREE\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...AS THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nFOR 48 HR OR SO FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE GFDL HAS A\r\nGOOD RECENT TRACK RECORD ON STORMS IN THIS AREA...BUT IN THIS CASE\r\nIT MAY BE DRIVING KIKO TOO MUCH INTO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CCON CONSENSUS MODEL.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO\r\nWOULD BE A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS THE TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE\r\nTRAILING RIDGE BUILDS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN.  THERE REMAINS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nREGARDS TO HOW CLOSE KIKO MAY COME TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nKIKO IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THAT IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR KIKO TO PEAK AT 80 KT IN 36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE SSTS ARE BELOW 24C\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WEST OF 110W...SO THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 18.1N 106.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 18.7N 107.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 19.6N 107.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.4N 108.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.8N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":24,"Date":"2007-10-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007\r\n \r\nKIKO IS ALMOST TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED BANDING PATTERN AROUND THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH WITH\r\nRATHER WARM CLOUD TOPS AT THE MOMENT.  WHILE THERE WAS A HINT OF AN\r\nEYE FORMING EARLIER...THAT HAS NOW BEEN FILLED BY NEW CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 55 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. \r\nTHE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND POOR\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/5.  WHILE KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES THAT SHOULD BREAK THAT RIDGE IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH\r\nWILL AMPLIFY FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A TRAILING RIDGE TO\r\nBUILD NORTH OF KIKO...CAUSING THE STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HR.  DESPITE THIS IMPROVED AGREEMENT...\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A NOTABLE SPREAD.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW\r\nA WESTWARD MOTION NEAR OR SOUTH OF 20N...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nFORECAST A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...AND THEN A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THEM THEREAFTER.  THERE IS STILL A POSSIBLE\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO OF A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS THE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES FOLLOWED BY A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE\r\nRIDGE BUILDS.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW CLOSE KIKO\r\nMAY COME TO BAJA CALIFORNIA...SO INTERESTS THERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nKIKO IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THAT IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR 24-36 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THAT TIME...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KIKO TO\r\nPEAK AT 75 KT IN 24 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SHEAR...DRY\r\nAIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF KIKO...AND COOLING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE SSTS ARE BELOW 24C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WEST OF\r\n110W...SO KIKO IS FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.5N 106.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.2N 107.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 19.9N 107.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.4N 108.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 20.8N 109.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":25,"Date":"2007-10-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 20 2007\r\n \r\nLATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED BANDING\r\nPATTERN.  HOWEVER...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A\r\nRATHER SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  A 0010 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS REVEALED AN EYE FEATURE OPEN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW OF KIKO REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH...BUT IT\r\nIS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO A SMALL\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE GFDL MODEL IS\r\nTHE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING KIKO...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS\r\nVERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nBETWEEN AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS KIKO TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS.  THE PEAK INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AS KIKO PASSES WEST\r\nOF THE BAJA PENINSULA...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND\r\nCOOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION.  KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.  A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE VERY\r\nSOON.  THE MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT LESS AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE \r\nINTERACTION OF KIKO AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE GFDL AND 18Z UKMET DEEPEN THE TROUGH ENOUGH TO\r\nKEEP KIKO ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. \r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nTROUGH WILL BYPASS KIKO AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO THAT THE KIKO WILL RESPOND TO THE BUILDING RIDGE AND TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  \r\n\r\nSINCE KIKO IS MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO..THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...SINCE THE WESTWARD\r\nTURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS ALONG THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 18.9N 107.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 19.6N 107.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.2N 108.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 20.6N 109.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 110.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 22.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":26,"Date":"2007-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF KIKO HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST\r\n6 TO 12 HOURS.  A 0253 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED AN EYE\r\nFEATURE SIMILAR TO AN EARLIER PASS...BUT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY HAS YET TO REVEAL SUCH A FEATURE.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A BLEND OF THE TWO...60 KT.  \r\n\r\nFOR THE LAST 12 HOURS...KIKO HAS BEEN ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KIKO'S\r\nINTENSITY COULD BE REACHING ITS PEAK.  ONLY THE GFDL BRINGS KIKO TO\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  WHILE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WARM FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE.  THIS SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM\r\nOCCURRING IN THE NEAR TERM.  THEREAFTER...KIKO IS FORECAST TO\r\nENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nA COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST AND ICON...\r\nWHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...AND KIKO IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BREAK THE\r\nRIDGE AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.  MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 OR SO HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nHOWEVER...VARIES IN THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH\r\nWOULD BE FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH.  WHEN THIS\r\nOCCURS...A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL COMMENCE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE UKMET... NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.  \r\n \r\nSINCE KIKO IS CURRENTLY MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AND\r\nTHE WESTWARD TURN IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN TO MATERIALIZE...INTERESTS\r\nALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND IN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 19.3N 107.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 19.8N 107.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 20.2N 108.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 20.6N 109.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 21.1N 110.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 23.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":27,"Date":"2007-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE THAT\r\nSTRONG...AN EARLIER TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nBECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  MOREOVER...CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING...AND LIGHTENING DATA\r\nSUGGEST A WEAKENING OF CORE CONVECTION.  IT APPEARS THAT KIKO MAY\r\nHAVE PEAKED AND IS NOW BEGINNING TO WEAKEN.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED BUT A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE WINDS HAVE DECREASED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AND\r\nTHIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  GIVEN THE PRESENT APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO WILL NOT BECOME A HURRICANE AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nKIKO IS DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...330/2...WITHIN A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD\r\nALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF KIKO AND FORCING A TURN\r\nTOWARDS THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.  THE GFDL IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL WHICH DOES NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN MATERIALIZING WITHIN\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS.  INSTEAD...THE GFDL MAINTAINS A STRONG AND\r\nVERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX THAT CONTINUES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  SINCE WEAKENING HAS ALREADY\r\nCOMMENCED...THE GFDL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN BEGINNING LATER TODAY. \r\nNONETHELESS...INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF THE KIKO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 19.3N 107.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 19.7N 107.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 20.1N 108.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 20.6N 110.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 21.1N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 22.0N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":28,"Date":"2007-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT KIKO HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED DURING\r\nTHE DAY.  DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...LIMITED...AND\r\nCONFINED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON THIS TREND.  GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED\r\nENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...INCREASING STABILITY....AND DRIER\r\nAIR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST. IT IS\r\nEXPECTED THAT KIKO WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT KIKO IS BEGINNING TO TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYERED\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND A RIDGE\r\nBUILDS IN ITS WAKE...TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS WESTWARD\r\nTURN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nHAVE SHIFTED SOUTH WITH SOME EVEN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARDS THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THE GFDL REMAINS THE NORTHERNMOST OUTLIER BUT EVEN THAT\r\nMODEL NOW BYPASSES THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS KIKO TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATER\r\nTONIGHT AND MONDAY.  UNTIL THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS FULLY\r\nMATERIALIZED...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 19.5N 107.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 19.7N 108.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 20.1N 109.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 20.7N 112.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":29,"Date":"2007-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 21 2007\r\n \r\nKIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION \r\nLOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN WEAKENING DURING THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DECREASING\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE DATA T-NUMBERS. QUIKSCAT WAS SCHEDULED TO PASS OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nA SHORT TIME AGO...AND DATA FROM THIS PASS SHOULD SOON PROVIDE A\r\nBETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH KIKO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SSTS...SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR AND A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS.  DESPITE THE SEEMINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE\r\nGFDL MAINTAINS KIKO AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM FOR A COUPLE MORE\r\nDAYS.  THE SHIPS AND HWRF GUIDANCE PREDICT A FASTER RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE MODELS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT KIKO WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nA TIMELY 2356 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN\r\nLOCATING THE CENTER OF KIKO THIS EVENING.  THIS IMAGERY ALONG WITH\r\nEARLIER CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES...SUGGEST THAT THE MUCH\r\nANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN HAS COMMENCED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 300/3.  KIKO IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO\r\nAND THEY ALL PREDICT THAT KIKO WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE GFDL REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE AND\r\nINDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT\r\nIS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 19.6N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 19.7N 108.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 19.9N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 20.0N 111.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 20.2N 114.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":30,"Date":"2007-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KIKO IS PLODDING ALONG AT ABOUT\r\n300/2 TO THE SOUTH OF A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL THE LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES THAT KIKO IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AS THIS\r\nTROUGH CONTINUES EASTWARD...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A TURN\r\nTO THE WEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  EVEN THE GFDL...\r\nWHICH IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND HAS HAD A\r\nNORTHWARD BIAS WITH THIS STORM...TAKES KIKO SAFELY SOUTH OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH...BUT\r\nSLOWER THAN...THE UKMET...AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  SINCE IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT ANY FURTHER WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY...PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON KIKO ARE BEING\r\nDISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR THE TIME\r\nBEING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0140Z SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nTHERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PARTICULARLY\r\nAT THE UPPERMOST LEVELS...BUT AS KIKO COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nTHE BUILDING RIDGE THE SHEAR COULD TEMPORARILY LESSEN OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  WITH WARM WATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE...KIKO COULD MAINTAIN\r\nSTORM STATUS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION\r\nOF COOL WATER...DRY AIR...AND INCREASED SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nFAIRLY SWIFT DEGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE TO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 19.6N 108.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 19.8N 108.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 19.9N 110.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":31,"Date":"2007-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2007\r\n \r\nAFTER PRODUCING AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...\r\nTEMPORARILY HALTING THE WEAKENING TREND...IT APPEARS THAT KIKO'S\r\nDOWNWARD TREND HAS RESUMED.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS\r\nAND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW\r\nCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE PRIMARILY\r\nHIGH-LEVEL CIRRUS DEBRIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35\r\nKT BASED ON THE DETERIORATING SATELLITE APPEARANCE. KIKO'S\r\nANTICIPATED TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE\r\nDRY/STABLE AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING.  IN\r\nFACT...IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nSOON...KIKO COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nKIKO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AS IT HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 280/5.  NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN NORTHWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW\r\nAPPROACHES A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 19.7N 108.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 19.8N 110.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 19.8N 112.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 19.9N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 20.2N 116.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":32,"Date":"2007-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007\r\n \r\nDEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER FROM THE CONVECTIVE BURST LAST NIGHT HAS\r\nCLEARED OUT...LEAVING AN UNOBSTRUCTED VIEW OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  THIS YIELDS A MUCH MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 265/8...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AND JUST SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND NEARLY\r\nALL MODELS SUGGEST A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS\r\nIT APPROACHES A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.   \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY AND\r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT KIKO IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT AND SIGNIFICANT\r\nREDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A VERY DRY/STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 19.5N 109.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N 111.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 19.2N 113.6W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.1N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.3N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":33,"Date":"2007-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2007\r\n \r\nIT HAD BEEN NEARLY 10 HOURS SINCE KIKO PRODUCED ANY DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...JUST AS THE CLOCK WAS ABOUT TO HIT DOUBLE ZERO...UTC...A\r\nNEW BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED...AND KIKO'S TIME AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL CONTINUE A LITTLE LONGER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF\r\nKIKO APPEARS QUITE HOSTILE...WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND A\r\nDRY AND STABLE AIR MASS.  THE FORECAST INDICATES NO WEAKENING\r\nDURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...TO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE\r\nBURSTS DURING THE NEXT DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  THEREAFTER...WE EXPECT THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN STEADILY AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 24 HOURS.  KIKO COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSOONER...IF IT FAILS TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION EARLY\r\nON TUESDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANT\r\nIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE\r\nAND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THIS RIDGE WEAKENS IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 19.4N 110.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 19.2N 112.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.1N 114.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":34,"Date":"2007-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007\r\n \r\nKIKO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION...WITH THE\r\nLATEST BURST DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  AN SSM/I\r\nOVERPASS AT 0144Z SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  BASED ON THIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 25 KT FROM SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING FASTER...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 260/11. \r\nKIKO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD PERSIST FOR AT\r\nLEAST 48 HR BEFORE A DEEP-LAYER LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF KIKO.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION OR\r\nITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD\r\nMOTION THAN ON THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS NOTABLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER SOUTH BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD CAUSE KIKO TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HR OR\r\nLESS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW LONG\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LAST.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS\r\nSHOW IT LASTING THROUGH FIVE DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW IT\r\nWEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN LESS THAN 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCOMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND FORECAST THE REMNANTS TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 19.1N 112.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.9N 114.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.9N 116.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 118.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 19.4N 120.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":35,"Date":"2007-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A\r\nCLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE A COOLER OCEAN\r\nAND INCREASING WIND SHEAR. SO KIKO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nKIKO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS.  SINCE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL\r\nLIKELY MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK STEERED BY THE PREVAILING\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 18.6N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.5N 114.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":36,"Date":"2007-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP152007","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152007\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 23 2007\r\n\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND\r\nKIKO IS NOW IS A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  ANALYSIS FROM A 1326\r\nUTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED A FEW CREDIBLE 30 KT WIND VECTORS...\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS PROBABLE THAT KIKO HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE THAT\r\nTIME.  \r\n\r\nDURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS SPORADICALLY\r\nDEVELOPED AND QUICKLY WEAKENED.  GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE AND\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WHILE ADDITIONAL TEMPORARY BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION MIGHT RECUR...A CONTINUED SPIN-DOWN OF THE REMNANT\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.  THIS IS THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY ON KIKO UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 18.3N 114.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.1N 116.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 18.2N 118.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.3N 120.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 19.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-05-31 17:00:00","Key":"AL012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008\r\n100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nBECAME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT WAS CROSSING THE COAST OF BELIZE\r\nEARLY THIS MORNING. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...SHIP DATA\r\nAND A NOAA BUOY 42056 WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS BUT BECAUSE\r\nARTHUR IS ALREADY INLAND..WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT ARTHUR REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS IF IT MOVES\r\nBACK OVER WATER IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/07. ARTHUR IS ALREADY\r\nSOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEREFORE A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK IS FORECAST. NONE OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS ARTHUR NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE.    \r\n\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS NOT DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM ALMA BECAUSE THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER OF ALMA DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA YESTERDAY. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1700Z 18.1N  88.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N  91.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.5N  93.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  94.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N  95.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 18.5N  96.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-05-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008\r\n \r\nARTHUR REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nDESPITE BEING CENTERED OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. ARTHUR HAS A\r\nLARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING. IN ADDITION...NEW CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BASED ON THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nARTHUR IS KEPT AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME...BUT\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER\r\nINLAND. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IF THE\r\nCENTER MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.\r\n \r\nARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6\r\nKNOTS.  A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE OR EVEN INLAND OVER MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY KEEPS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED NEAR\r\nOR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 18.4N  88.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 18.7N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.0N  93.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  94.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 18.0N  97.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-06-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ARTHUR REMAINS INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA OF MEXICO...BUT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER\r\nIS WELL REMOVED FROM THAT LOCATION.  THE BAND OF CONVECTION JUST\r\nOFFSHORE TO THE EAST OF BELIZE WENT THROUGH A BRIEF LULL AROUND 22Z\r\nBUT HAS SINCE PERKED UP AGAIN...WITH RATHER COLD INFRARED CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLLOCATED WITH NUMEROUS LONG-RANGE LIGHTNING RETURNS.  OTHER\r\nLARGE CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED INLAND TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...HIGHLIGHTING THE\r\nCONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND INLAND FLOODING.\r\nESSENTIALLY NO DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING RECENTLY IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE\r\nALMOST CERTAINLY OCCURRING IN THE BAND EAST OF BELIZE.  DATA FROM\r\nTHE 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THAT AREA JUST ARRIVED AND SUGGEST THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ABOUT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ARTHUR SHOULD STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 OR 6 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...BUT IT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN HOW STRONG ARTHUR WILL BE OR HOW\r\nLONG IT WILL LAST.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS MUDDY AT BEST...BUT\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ARTHUR OR ITS REMNANTS TO SPEND MOST OF\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO OVER LAND..JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE.  ONLY THE GFDL SHOWS THE CENTER EMERGING BACK OVER WATER. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND STAYS JUST INLAND FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND\r\nCALLS FOR ARTHUR TO SOON BE A DEPRESSION AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW OVER\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.  IF...HOWEVER...THE ACTUAL TRACK ENDS UP JUST\r\nA LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...AND THE CENTER OF ARTHUR EMERGES OVER THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE...IT IS POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD BE AT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 18.4N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N  93.6W    30 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 18.2N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-06-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ARTHUR IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN NIGHT-VIS\r\nIMAGERY...BUT STILL APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nSTRONG CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...NORTHERN\r\nGUATEMALA...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...BUT NONE NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  SINCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING\r\nOVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS....ARTHUR WILL REMAIN A 35 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST AT 6 KT...AND WITH LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE.  ALL OF\r\nTHE CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OF ARTHUR INLAND OVER\r\nMEXICO...AND IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A\r\nSLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SOUTH.  \r\n\r\nWITH THE CENTER OF ARTHUR FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND...MOST LIKELY\r\nTHE BEST THAT IT CAN DO IS TO MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH FOR A FEW\r\nMORE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO\r\nA DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...WITH DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nEXPECTED IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.  A POSSIBILITY STILL EXISTS THAT THE\r\nCENTER COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE....ALTHOUGH\r\nNORTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR PARKED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nWOULD LIMIT REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD THIS OCCUR.     \r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ARTHUR REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 18.3N  90.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.2N  90.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.1N  91.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.0N  94.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N  95.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arthur","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-06-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT\r\nARTHUR'S CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND CONTINUES TO\r\nBE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  BASED ON THE OVERALL DECREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION...ARTHUR HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nWITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND\r\nARTHUR COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. \r\n \r\nARTHUR HAS TURNED TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 250/07.  A GENERAL WESTWARD-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS KEEPING ARTHUR...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND THERE NOW APPEARS TO BE LITTLE CHANCE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. \r\n \r\nDESPITE THE DOWNGRADE TO A DEPRESSION AND ADDITIONAL FORECAST\r\nWEAKENING...ARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS\r\nAND MUDSLIDES OVER GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 18.1N  90.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N  91.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 17.7N  92.5W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 17.5N  93.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 17.4N  94.7W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arthur","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-06-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008\r\n \r\nWHILE ARTHUR'S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE...A\r\nRECENT REPORT FROM SHIP A8MI2 OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nINDICATES THE MAX WINDS REMAIN NEAR 30 KT.  ADDITIONALLY...\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THUS...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  STILL...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAVING BEEN\r\nINLAND FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS AND INCREASINGLY HIGH TERRAIN IN ITS\r\nANTICIPATED PATH...ARTHUR APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME.  THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...245/5...IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...ARTHUR...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH.\r\n \r\nARTHUR WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER\r\nGUATEMALA...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND BELIZE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 17.7N  91.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 17.0N  92.9W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.9N  93.9W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.9N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Arthur","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-06-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2008\r\n \r\nFOR MANY HOURS ARTHUR HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN ENCOUNTERING MORE RUGGED TERRAIN WHILE\r\nPROCEEDING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND IT HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED\r\nAND ELONGATED AND MIGHT NOT EVEN BE CLOSED.  THEREFORE...THIS WILL\r\nBE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THIS CHANGE IN STATUS...\r\nHOWEVER...DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE RAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD HAS\r\nENDED.  SINCE THE CLOSED CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING...NO\r\nFORECAST POINTS ARE PROVIDED...BUT THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER AND\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW....SO\r\nHEAVY RAINS COULD PERSIST OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND\r\nNORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PERHAPS\r\nLONGER.  FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 17.4N  91.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO NOW BE CONSIDERED\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR OVER 12 HOURS NEAR OR JUST\r\nWEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER OF THE SYSTEM.  BANDING FEATURES ARE\r\nALSO BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS FROM LATE YESTERDAY THAT SHOWED SOME RELIABLE 25-30 KT WINDS. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nGFS...SUGGESTED THE POSSIBILITY OF GENESIS IN THIS AREA OVER A WEEK\r\nAGO...A REMARKABLE ACHIEVEMENT.\r\n\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS STEERING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST...ABOUT 285/8. THIS RIDGING GETS STRONGER DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD MOTION BY LATE\r\nTOMORROW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK UNTIL\r\nTHE SYSTEM POTENTIALLY REACHES A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nALONG ABOUT 50W-55W AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODELS\r\nTHAT SHOW THE STRONGEST REFLECTION OF THE CYCLONE...SUCH AS THE\r\nGFS/HWRF/GFDL...TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...\r\nWHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS KEEP A WEAKER TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND\r\nOF THE FIVE MODELS ABOVE BUT JUST A SHADE TO THE LEFT OF THAT\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS NEAR THIS SYSTEM...SO THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR ON THE\r\nFUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS THE COOLER WATERS AND MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR IN ITS PATH. AFTER ABOUT 24 HR ON THE NHC TRACK...SSTS\r\nDROP BELOW 26C AND STAY BELOW THAT THRESHOLD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY AND MOST GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO...SHOWING STRENGTHENING\r\nAT THE START AND END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN BETWEEN WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COOLEST SSTS. THE\r\nSHIPS/GFDL MODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS\r\nSYSTEM...MAKING IT A HURRICANE WITHIN 5 DAYS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 12.6N  22.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.0N  24.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 13.8N  27.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 14.7N  30.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 15.8N  33.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 17.5N  40.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  46.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNINGS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH TWO DISTINCT SPIRALING BANDS\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 35 KT....THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON. \r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  BECAUSE OF THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  BERTHA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA WILL APPROACH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nGFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS THEREFORE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GFDL...GFS...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD\r\nLIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE AFTER 48 HOURS WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING. \r\nHOWEVER...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH AGAIN SHOULD HALT STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 TO\r\n96 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nOUTER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA ARE EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY\r\nWINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE\r\nVERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 13.3N  24.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 13.8N  26.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.7N  29.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.6N  32.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.6N  35.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N  42.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  52.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAVE WARMED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES REMAIN WELL-DEFINED IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS.   A SHIP\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 45 NM NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1700 UTC REPORTED\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KT.  THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 35 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY. \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED AS BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN ABOUT 50W-60W WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE\r\nFUTURE TRACK OF BERTHA.  THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND HWRF MODELS DEPICT\r\nA WEAKER AND SHALLOWER BERTHA...KEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE GFS AND GFDL MAINTAIN A STRONGER\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THAT TURNS NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL BE STRONG AND DEEP\r\nENOUGH TO BE STEERED BY THE MID-LEVEL FLOW...FOLLOWING CLOSELY THE\r\nGFDL AND THE GFS. \r\n\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...BUT BERTHA IS FORECAST TO TRACK\r\nOVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES C....WHICH IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE SSTS ALONG THE TRACK ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE BUT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.  THE SHIPS... LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS PREDICT BERTHA TO\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS UNCHANGED AND CONSERVATIVE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING\r\nFACTORS. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BERTHA SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE\r\nISLANDS TONIGHT...HOWEVER OUTER RAINBANDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING\r\nGUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nCAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 13.6N  25.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.1N  27.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N  30.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 16.0N  34.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.9N  37.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 18.8N  44.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 25.0N  52.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS\r\nCOURTESY OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT BEGAN AROUND 1900\r\nUTC.  BANDING FEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT IN BOTH\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  BASED ON THIS\r\nTREND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT BUT OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS.  SUCH\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND KEEPS BERTHA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH OUT OF\r\nRESPECT OF THE HWRF MODEL.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWITH ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nA SERIES OF VERY USEFUL MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATES THAT BERTHA IS A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nMORE TOWARDS THE WEST...280/12.  IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE RECENT\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO RESPOND TO THE LARGE\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP\r\nBERTHA ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A TURN\r\nTOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS BERTHA REACHES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH BOTH THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A SIMILAR EVOLUTION IN THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THESE MODELS KEEP A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER\r\nCYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. \r\nSINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES BERTHA WILL REMAIN A DEEP\r\nSYSTEM...A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BEYOND 72 HOURS. \r\nTHIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALBEIT A BIT FARTHER\r\nSOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION RELOCATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 13.4N  27.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 13.8N  29.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.6N  32.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.5N  35.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 16.6N  39.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 18.5N  45.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 21.5N  51.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 25.5N  54.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008\r\n \r\nA STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN AT ABOUT 05Z...RESULTING IN\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 45-55 KT.  THESE\r\nESTIMATES...HOWEVER...WERE CONTINGENT UPON THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER BEING LOCATED MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nTHOUGHT...AND RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CONVECTION.  PASSIVE\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES FROM TRMM AT 0146Z AND AMSR-E AT 0326Z SUGGEST THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION\r\nESTIMATE...BUT BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD CLOUD TOP\r\nCANOPY.  SINCE 06Z...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...SO I DO\r\nNOT THINK THE DVORAK ESTIMATES WOULD BE AS HIGH NOW.  BEST I CAN\r\nTELL FROM FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEEMS TO\r\nBE MOVING ALONG THE HEADING SUGGESTED BY THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...OR\r\n290/12... BENEATH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT FOR NOW...TO SEE IF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS AS BERTHA HEADS TOWARD SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH.  THE FIRST TWO DAYS\r\nOF THE TRACK FORECAST HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...\r\nMAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION. \r\nTHEREAFTER...ONCE BERTHA FINDS ITSELF DUE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP AND EDGED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT OR WEST...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS.  ALL OF THE MODELS STILL FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE TO ALLOW BERTHA TO TURN TO THE RIGHT LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...BUT RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD DELAYING THIS\r\nTURN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS KEPT CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT THE MODEL SPREAD IS SUBSTANTIAL AT DAYS 4-5.  THE\r\nMODELS THAT FORECAST A STRONGER BERTHA...SUCH AS THE\r\nGFDL...FORECAST MORE OF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5...WHILE\r\nMODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET INSIST ON A WEAKER CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS...TAKING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. \r\nSTRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED BY COOL WATERS DURING THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS...AND BY INCREASING SHEAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE VERY MUCH IN\r\nDISAGREEMENT...INDICATIVE OF GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AS WELL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 14.2N  28.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N  30.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.9N  34.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.6N  37.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 17.3N  41.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  48.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  53.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  56.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nLARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nTHAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT.  THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nBERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.\r\nBETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR \r\nREMAINS LOW.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE\r\nTHEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE\r\nSHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER\r\nPACE...290/14.  THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nSHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE\r\nTHAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA\r\nON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 14.9N  29.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.7N  32.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N  35.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.2N  39.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.9N  42.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N  49.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  54.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N  59.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAD A RATHER RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND\r\nMID-DAY...HOWEVER...SINCE THEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION WITH VERY\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AS BERTHA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATERS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SSTS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED\r\nTRACK...HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE 3-5\r\nDAY TIME PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND KEEPS BERTHA'S INTENSITY BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO SHOW BERTHA REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE...AND IS IN\r\nLINE WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nBERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nOR 290/16.  LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n2-3 DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.\r\nTHE GFDL TRACK HAS NOW SHIFTED WESTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH STILL INSISTS ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT HAS SHIFTED FARTHER\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 3-5... IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 15.5N  31.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.2N  34.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.8N  37.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 17.4N  41.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 17.9N  45.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.2N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N  56.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 23.5N  60.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE LAST 12-24 HOURS INDICATES THAT BERTHA\r\nHAS BEEN STAIR-STEPPING ITS WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OSCILLATING\r\nBETWEEN A WESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH EACH NEW\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST.  IRONING ALL THIS OUT YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 280/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A STRONG RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  WHILE MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF BERTHA IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THEY HAVE BEEN TRENDING\r\nTOWARDS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF BERTHA DUE TO A WEAKER AND\r\nSHALLOWER DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE EXCEPTION IS THE HWRF\r\nWHICH FORECASTS A STRONGER AND DEEPER BERTHA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO THE WEAKNESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED A LITTLE WESTWARD BUT IS STILL NORTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSINCE ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH WOULD ALLOW BERTHA TO\r\nRESPOND TO THE DEEPER AND MORE NORTHWARD STEERING.    \r\n \r\nBERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE\r\nLATEST BURST BEGINNING AROUND 2300 UTC.  AVAILABLE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nSTRENGTH WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 45 KT. BERTHA IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THEREAFTER...SSTS\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK AND BERTHA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nTOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST SO ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS SHOWN\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS.  THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 16.0N  33.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.4N  36.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N  39.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 17.6N  43.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 18.1N  47.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 20.0N  53.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 22.0N  58.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  63.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA IS PASSING OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ROUGHLY 25\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS...ABOUT THE COOLEST THE CYCLONE HAS ENCOUNTERED YET\r\nDURING THE USUAL DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...AND IT HAS BEEN\r\nSTRUGGLING TO PRODUCE VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 35-45 KT...AND WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT\r\nFOR NOW.  DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS...BERTHA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS THE UNDERLYING WATER TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM BY\r\nABOUT A DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  ALL OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM REACHING 65 KT BY THEN...WHILE HWRF\r\nAND GFDL ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nA BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nIN PEAKING AT 60 KT.  ONE SHOULD NOT PAY TOO MUCH ATTENTION TO THE\r\nEXACT INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED\r\nPROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE INDICATES\r\nROUGHLY EQUAL CHANCES OF BERTHA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR A\r\nHURRICANE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS.  WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA BECOMES A\r\nHURRICANE WOULD SEEM TO DEPEND ON HOW WELL IT SURVIVES ITS STAY\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS...AND JUST HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR IMPACTS THE\r\nCYCLONE ONCE IT REACHES THE WARMER WATERS...AND BOTH OF THOSE\r\nFACTORS ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN RIGHT NOW.\r\n\r\nA COUPLE OF RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM AMSU AND AMSR-E PROVIDE\r\nTHE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18.  OVERALL THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE PROVIDES NO STRONG INDICATION THAT BERTHA\r\nWILL DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE CURRENTLY ALONG ABOUT 55W IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME\r\nLESS PRONOUNCED AND TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS SHOW BERTHA BYPASSING THIS\r\nFEATURE WITH JUST A SLIGHT BEND TO THE RIGHT ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. \r\nTHE HWRF IS THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL CURRENTLY CALLING FOR BERTHA\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE REACHING 60W.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS\r\nHARDLY BUDGED ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE LEFT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH\r\n5.  THIS NEW TRACK IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...GFS...AND\r\nECMWF...BUT THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AS\r\nREFLECTED BY THE CONTINUING LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 16.5N  35.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 17.0N  38.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 17.6N  41.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 18.2N  45.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  49.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 20.5N  56.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N  61.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  66.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008\r\n \r\nWHILE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS BERTHA\r\nSTRUGGLED A LITTLE BIT...HOWEVER NOW THAT IT IS HEADING FOR\r\nSLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS BERTHA APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nJUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN BETWEEN 35-45 KT AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.   CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING AS SSTS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE NEW\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT NOW\r\nPREDICTS BERTHA TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE AMOUNT OF PREDICTED\r\nSHEAR...THE INTENSITY IS HELD A LITTLE BELOW THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND\r\nGFDL MODELS WHICH SHOW ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6-12\r\nHOURS AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/18.  A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD KEEP BERTHA ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING AT A RATHER BRISK PACE.  THERE\r\nREMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREADS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nNORTHWARD...EXCEPT FOR THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS A WEAKER TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTED VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE NHC TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 16.6N  37.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N  40.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.6N  43.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 18.4N  47.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 19.1N  51.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 20.8N  57.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  62.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N  67.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING. THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 45\r\nKT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE\r\nPROJECTED PATH.  BERTHA IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS...BUT THE SSTS WILL BE INCREASING BY ABOUT ONE DEGREE PER\r\nDAY DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AT\r\nLEAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT PROJECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH SHOWED BERTHA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT\r\n3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE HWRF...\r\nGFDL...LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nBERTHA CONTINUES RACING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18. \r\nA GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN A DEEPER AND STRONGER\r\nBERTHA TURN THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nMEANWHILE...THE MODELS THAT DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT BERTHA WILL REMAIN\r\nDEEP ENOUGH TO DECELERATE DUE TO THE WEAKER RIDGE.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nIT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL EVER POSE A THREAT\r\nTO ANY LAND AREAS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 16.7N  39.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.1N  42.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.8N  45.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.3N  52.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 20.8N  58.1W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N  63.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  67.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 05 2008\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BERTHA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT\r\nA CONVECTIVE BURSTING PATTERN WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY LOCATED\r\nNEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...45 KT.\r\nBERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER WARMER WATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH THE 27 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT DURING THIS PERIOD...SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS DUE TO SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND THE RESULTING\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS BERTHA MIGHT EXPERIENCE.\r\nA TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WOULD ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING WHILE\r\nA TRACK MORE TOWARDS THE WEST WOULD RESULT IN INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR. SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST TAKES BERTHA INTO AN AREA\r\nWITH MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS. THIS NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS. \r\n \r\nBERTHA CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n280/18. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HOURS COURTESY OF A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nAND TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  IN FACT...THE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS SPAN NEARLY 1300 MILES AT DAY 5 WITH THE UKMET\r\nMODEL KEEPING BERTHA HEADED WESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNING THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nTRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.   \r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nBOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF BERTHA.  ACCORDINGLY...IT\r\nIS MUCH TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF BERTHA WILL OR WILL NOT POSE A\r\nTHREAT TO ANY LAND AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 17.0N  41.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 17.4N  44.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 18.1N  47.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.9N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.6N  53.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  59.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  63.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N  67.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n\r\nNOT MANY CHANGES TO REPORT WITH BERTHA THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD ALONG A HEADING OF ABOUT 280/19\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nVERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS HEIGHTS BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF BERTHA OVER THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BUT THEY HAVE GENERALLY COME\r\nINTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY\r\nTHEN...ALTHOUGH AT A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT HALF OF BERTHA'S\r\nCURRENT MOTION. THE OUTLIER IS THE HWRF THAT FORECASTS A MUCH\r\nSOONER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ALONG ABOUT 58W. NONE OF THE\r\nMODELS...HOWEVER...FORECAST BERTHA TO REACH 30 DEGREES NORTH\r\nLATITUDE WITHIN FIVE DAYS. WHILE THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER BY THE END OF THE FIVE-DAY\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS DO NOT DEPICT A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH\r\nTHAT WOULD ACCELERATE BERTHA INTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDES. SO IT IS\r\nFAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF OR WHEN BERTHA WILL RECURVE. THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD\r\nBUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE WATERS BENEATH BERTHA ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 26 CELSIUS AND\r\nCONTINUE TO GET WARMER AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS WESTWARD...AND BY 48\r\nHOURS FROM NOW THEY SHOULD BE APPROACHING 28 CELSIUS.  VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR SHOULD NOT STRENGTHEN DURING THIS PERIOD...SO GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN LINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND BERTHA COULD BE A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WATERS WILL BE PLENTY WARM...SO THE\r\nDETERMINING FACTOR ON THE INTENSITY OF BERTHA WILL PROBABLY BE WIND\r\nSHEAR.  THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS AT DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5 IS COMPLEX...AND IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE JUST HOW MUCH\r\nSHEAR WILL BE AFFECTING BERTHA DURING THAT PERIOD.  DESPITE TAKING\r\nINTO ACCOUNT A MODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR BASED ON THE GFS MODEL WIND\r\nFIELDS...THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST 70-75 KT AT 72-120 HOURS...SO\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 70 KT...A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AT THOSE LONG RANGES...HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT A\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 17.3N  43.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.9N  46.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.6N  52.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.4N  55.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N  60.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  64.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 27.0N  67.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT BERTHA HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA FROM 0852 UTC INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45\r\nKT...WHICH AGREES WITH THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\nHOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL AN INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION WHICH MAY FORETELL AN INCREASE IN STRENGTH. SSTS UNDER\r\nBERTHA HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 26 CELSIUS AND ARE EXPECTED TO WARM\r\nA COUPLE OF DEGREES DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN LOW...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE EXACTLY\r\nWHAT EFFECT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL\r\nHAVE ON THE CYCLONE. IF IT REMAINS IN PLACE...THE TROUGH WOULD\r\nPRODUCE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SOME OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER...WHICH WOULD KEEP\r\nBERTHA IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS KEEPS BERTHA AT THE SAME\r\nSTRENGTH.\r\n\r\nBERTHA CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR 280/18 KT. A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A REDUCTION IS FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LITTLE LESS SPREAD\r\nIN THE MODELS THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 2-3 DAYS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC BEGIN TO WEAKEN. THE HWRF CONTINUES TO INSIST ON\r\nTHE TURN OCCURRING MUCH SOONER...WHILE THE UKMET REMAINS THE\r\nWESTERNMOST MODEL BUT WITH A WEAKENED TROPICAL CYCLONE OR EVEN AN\r\nOPEN WAVE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD...BUT IT\r\nREMAINS LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND ALSO LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 17.4N  45.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 18.0N  47.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.9N  50.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.7N  53.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 20.5N  56.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 22.5N  60.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N  64.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 27.0N  66.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n \r\nA COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES JUST RECEIVED SUGGEST THAT BERTHA'S\r\nVORTEX IS TILTED A LITTLE.  THE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THESE IMAGES ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS\r\nIMPROVED WITH THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE FEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nBERTHA IS STRENGTHENING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT AT\r\n18Z...BUT WITH THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. \r\nHOWEVER...INDICATIONS ARE THAT BEYOND 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nCOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nBERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/17 KT.  ALL OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHWEST TURN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS\r\nSOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHEN THE TURN OCCURS.  THE HWRF\r\nAND GFDL...WHICH DEPICT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS ALONG\r\nTHE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.  THE UKMET WHICH KEEPS\r\nBERTHA WEAKER IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE. THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...BUT STILL REMAINS\r\nWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 18.1N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N  49.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 19.5N  52.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 20.2N  54.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.9N  56.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  60.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  64.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  65.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS GRADUALLY IMPROVED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION IS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CENTER WHILE\r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN EXPANDING WESTWARD...TYPICAL OF AN\r\nINTENSIFYING CYCLONE. FURTHERMORE...CONSECUTIVE MICROWAVE DATA SHOW\r\nA WELL DEFINED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...OR EYE-LIKE FEATURE...\r\nWHICH IS GRADUALLY BECOMING ALIGNED VERTICALLY.  THIS COULD\r\nEVENTUALLY BE THE PRECURSOR OF AN EYE FORMATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE INCREASED AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. \r\nTHE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM AHEAD OF BERTHA SO THE SHEAR WILL BE THE\r\nMAIN PRIMARY LARGE SCALE FACTOR CONTROLLING THE FUTURE INTENSITY.\r\nWE ARE NOT CONSIDERING EYEWALL CYCLES AT THIS TIME...IN CASE AN EYE\r\nFORMS.  BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO... STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BERTHA COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE ON MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nFLUCTUATE SO NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AS IT APPEARS TO BE REALIGNING\r\nWITH THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX. THIS IS NOT A CHANGE IN TRACK SINCE \r\nBERTHA IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT\r\n17 KNOTS.  A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 50 TO 55\r\nDEGREES WEST WILL PROBABLY CAUSE BERTHA TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN SOON. \r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOME IN A DAY OR TWO\r\nCAUSING BERTHA TO CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AGAIN AND BERTHA SHOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY\r\nAS INDICATED BY SOME GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT TONIGHT. NO NEED TO DISCUSS EVERY MODEL. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 18.6N  48.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.3N  51.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.0N  54.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  57.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 22.0N  59.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  62.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 27.0N  64.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 30.0N  65.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2008\r\n \r\nIN THE HOURS LEADING UP TO 00Z...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES OCCURRED ON ROUGHLY AN HOURLY BASIS...AND ALMOST MADE IT\r\nSEEM LIKE WE WERE RECEIVING RADAR FIXES. THOSE IMAGES REVEALED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED AND VERTICALLY-ALIGNED EYE FEATURE...AND MORE RECENTLY\r\nAN IMAGE FROM AMSU TAKEN AT 0517Z ALSO DEPICTED AN EYE. THE\r\nMICROWAVE EYE DIAMETER APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 15-20 N MI. GOES\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY HAS INTERMITTENTLY EXHIBITED HINTS OF AN\r\nEYE...ESPECIALLY AROUND 06Z WHEN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 65 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HURRICANE THRESHOLD...BUT GIVEN\r\nTHE MICROWAVE SIGNATURES THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...\r\nTHE FIRST OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT.\r\nWHILE A HURRICANE DOES NOT FORM EVERY YEAR IN JULY IN THE ATLANTIC\r\nBASIN...IT HAS CERTAINLY HAPPENED BEFORE...INCLUDING IN 1996 WHEN\r\nANOTHER HURRICANE BERTHA FORMED...COINCIDENTALLY ALSO ON JULY 7.\r\n\r\nEXTRAPOLATION OF THE EARLIER SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES MATCHES UP\r\nQUITE WELL WITH MORE RECENT GEOSTATIONARY FIXES TO YIELD AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/17. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nBERTHA IS PROVIDING THE STEERING...BUT THAT FEATURE IS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALLOWING BERTHA'S TRACK TO STEADILY BEND\r\nTO THE RIGHT...BUT ALSO SLOW DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY. ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nGENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAINS A HEALTHY\r\nAMOUNT OF SPREAD REGARDING AT WHAT LONGITUDE BERTHA WILL TURN. THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS EDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD\r\nTHE CONSENSUS AND IS A TAD SLOWER AT THE END. GIVEN THE WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS AND LACK OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IT IS STILL NOT\r\nGUARANTEED THAT BERTHA WILL RECURVE.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR BERTHA ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE\r\nAPPRECIABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHILE UNDERLYING\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM A LITTLE MORE...SO SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.  AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND SO IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH WIND SHEAR WILL AFFECT\r\nBERTHA THEN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 80 KT\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nDUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING SHEAR...AND DUE TO COOLER\r\nWATERS AS BERTHA PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 19.3N  50.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 19.9N  52.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.8N  55.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  57.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 22.7N  59.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 25.0N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  64.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 30.5N  64.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON JUL 07 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE DURING\r\nTHE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A DISTINCT EYE NOW APPARENT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...THERE ARE NO\r\nAPPARENT ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION TODAY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR\r\nBERTHA TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEYOND 36 HOURS AS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DISAGREE ON THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFS FORECAST THE MOST\r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH BERTHA ESSENTIALLY RUNNING INTO THE\r\nTROUGH.  NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS...WHICH INCLUDE ATMOSPHERIC INFORMATION FROM THE GFS...SHOW\r\nCONSIDERABLE WEAKENING.  MEANWHILE...THE UKMET...GFDL...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS SHOWS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DELAY WEAKENING\r\nUNTIL THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE HIGHER SHEAR SCENARIO INDICATED BY\r\nTHE GFS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN BERTHA AS FAST AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HURRICANE'S HEADING DURING THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED... 285/13.  HOWEVER...BERTHA IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AND A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nMODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS EVOLUTION...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME\r\nSPREAD AMONGST THE MODELS ON WHAT LONGITUDE BERTHA WILL TURN NORTH.\r\nWHILE THE DEGREE OF THE TURN HAS IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS REGARDING\r\nPOTENTIAL IMPACTS TO BERMUDA...IT IS MUCH TO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF\r\nBERTHA WILL ACTUALLY THREATEN THAT ISLAND.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN\r\nBERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE TRACK\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 19.6N  51.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.3N  53.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  55.5W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  57.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.2N  59.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  63.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  63.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WITH A VERY DISTINCT EYE NOW SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0 BUT\r\nOBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 6.0 FOR THE PAST 3 HOURS. THIS\r\nSUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT MAKING BERTHA A MAJOR\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.\r\nBERTHA'S INTENSIFICATION TO MAJOR HURRICANE TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE\r\nDIFFICULTIES OF FORECASTING RAPID INTENSITY CHANGES. IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nPRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL CYCLES. AS A RESULT...SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY. IN A DAY OR TWO...THE GFS\r\nMODEL STILL INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR. THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH BASE THEIR SHEAR ESTIMATES FROM THE\r\nGFS...SHOW WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED...BOTH INDICATIONS\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE MUCH-ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE.  SINCE BERTHA COULD BE WOBBLING...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE BASED ON A 12 HOUR AVERAGE IS 300/10.  TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME WEAK LEADING TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST.  EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...IT IS STILL WAY TOO SOON TO\r\nDETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT BERTHA WILL AFFECT BERMUDA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 20.1N  52.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.8N  53.5W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  55.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.9N  57.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  59.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 26.5N  61.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 31.5N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2008\r\n\r\nDURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BETWEEN 1900 AND 2300 UTC...BOTH NHC AND\r\nCIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE. NORMALLY THESE NUMBERS CORRESPOND TO AN INTENSITY OF 115\r\nKNOTS.  DURING THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME VERY DISTINCT AND WAS\r\nSURROUNDED BY VERY COLD TOPS.  BERTHA COULD HAVE REACHED A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD. SINCE THEN...OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE\r\nBIT AND NEW ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS.  MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED. THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS WHEN BERTHA COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH WEAKENING AS PREDICTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE\r\nCERTAIN SINCE THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS SMALLER. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS WHILE APPROACHING A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREBUILD SOME AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR A DAY OR TWO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5 THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND BERTHA WILL PROBABLY MEANDER FOR A\r\nLITTLE BIT.\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS CERTAINLY NOT THE ONLY MAJOR HURRICANE THAT HAS FORMED IN\r\nTHE MONTH OF JULY. THE LAST OCCURRENCES WERE HURRICANES DENNIS AND\r\nEMILY IN 2005.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 20.8N  52.8W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  54.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.5N  56.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  58.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 25.0N  59.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  61.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 30.0N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 32.0N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  NONETHELESS...BERTHA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A\r\nFAIRLY SYMMETRICAL RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER. \r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY\r\nBUT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...\r\nREMAIN CLOSE TO 105 KT.  HENCE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. \r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS\r\nCOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS BERTHA MOVES TOWARDS HIGHER LATITUDES.  THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH WEAKENS BERTHA TO MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON.\r\n\r\nEYE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/9 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT BERTHA WILL HEAD FOR A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN CALLING FOR THIS SCENARIO MORE CONSISTENTLY THAN THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL TO THE\r\nWEST OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS AS WELL AS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  BY DAY 5...STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME QUITE WEAK\r\nAND BERTHA MAY MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY AS IT WAITS TO BE\r\nEVENTUALLY PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 21.4N  53.3W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 22.2N  54.4W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.4N  55.9W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 24.7N  57.4W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 26.0N  58.6W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  59.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 30.0N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 32.0N  59.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A RAPID DEGRADATION OF\r\nBERTHA'S STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.  THE EYE HAS\r\nDISAPPEARED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY.  THERE IS ALSO\r\nEVIDENCE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nEYEWALL HAS ERODED.  A BLEND OF THE FINAL T AND CI NUMBERS FROM THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT AND LATEST\r\nOBJECTIVE T NUMBERS SUGGEST AN EVEN LOWER INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 90 KT.  IT WOULD APPEAR THAT\r\nBERTHA HAS FINALLY ENCOUNTERED THE HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WE'VE\r\nBEEN FORECASTING.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THAT IT COULD BE ENTRAINING DRY AIR.  BOTTOM LINE...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT LOOKS RATHER HOSTILE AND BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN IN THE SHORT-TERM.  TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND SSTS INCREASE SO THERE IS SOME\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN INTENSITY FORECASTING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY\r\nSHOWS SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS. \r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE OR 315/9.  BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH. \r\nSINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD BECOME RATHER WEAK AS A RESULT OF\r\nTHIS EVOLUTION...BERTHA COULD MOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY\r\nTOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.  IT IS FOR THIS REASON THAT\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE\r\nLAST FORECAST SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 22.1N  53.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 23.1N  54.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 24.3N  56.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  57.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 26.6N  58.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  59.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 30.5N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 32.5N  58.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO DEGRADE THIS AFTERNOON\r\nAND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nVARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES. INDEED...BERTHA'S RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION YESTERDAY HAS BEEN EQUALED BY ITS RAPID WEAKENING\r\nTODAY. SUCH INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN A FORECASTING CHALLENGE\r\nAND SERVE AS AN IMPORTANT REMINDER FOR THE UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH INTENSITY FORECASTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. MOST\r\nOF THE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERTHA MIGHT EVEN REGAIN SOME\r\nSTRENGTH LATER IN THE FORECAST AS THE SHEAR RELAXES AND THE SSTS\r\nINCREASE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM WITH LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nBERTHA CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 310/10. BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC WEAKENS AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH. THIS\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN COULD RESULT IN THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS BECOMING RATHER WEAK BEYOND 72 HOURS...AND BERTHA COULD\r\nMOVE SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST. IT IS\r\nFOR THIS REASON THAT INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 22.7N  54.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 23.6N  56.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 24.8N  57.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 26.0N  58.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 27.0N  59.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  60.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  59.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 33.0N  58.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 08 2008\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH BERTHA. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND MOST\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY IS 70 KNOTS. I AM\r\nNOT QUITE SURE IF BERTHA HAS GIVEN UP AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS HEADING FOR WARMER WATERS AND LOWER SHEAR SO\r\nREINTENSIFICATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BECAUSE OF THE MIXED\r\nSIGNALS AMONG GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENING THE\r\nHURRICANE AND BOTH GFDL AND HWRF SUGGESTING SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPTED TO KEEP BERTHA AS A\r\n70 KT HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.  \r\n\r\nBERTHA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT\r\n10 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED BEYOND 48 HOURS\r\nAS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND A\r\nSHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE WEST.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION BETWEEN 48 AND 120 HOURS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE PAINFULLY SLOW SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST\r\nTO BE VERY WEAK.  THERE WAS A SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE 00Z GUIDANCE.\r\nUNANIMOUSLY...THEY ALL SHIFTED A DEGREE OR TWO WESTWARD...INCLUDING\r\nTHE HWRF WHICH WAS FARTHER EAST AND HAS NOW JOINED THE REST OF THE\r\nMODEL SUITE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT\r\nTO THE WEST AND IS NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...IN FACT...JUST EAST OF THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. I DO NOT\r\nWANT TO CHANGE THE TRACK TOO MUCH SINCE I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST IN THE NEXT RUN.   \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 23.1N  55.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N  57.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  58.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 27.0N  60.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 28.0N  60.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 30.0N  61.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 31.5N  61.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  60.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE CIRCULAR AND ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A\r\nSLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE\r\nDECREASING.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH WATER VAPOR ANIMATIONS WHICH\r\nSHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 27N 68W MOVING WESTWARD AND\r\nFARTHER AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ONLY 55 TO 65 KT AND THEREFORE THE CURRENT\r\nWIND SPEED IS ADJUSTED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nWHICH USES THE GFS UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW A\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR OR ANY STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS...BOTH OF WHICH HAVE SOME LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION...FORECAST A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS OR SO.  MY WIND SPEED FORECAST ONLY HINTS AT THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nTRAVERSE WARM WATERS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SINCE OTHER\r\nENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO NOT APPEAR INHIBITING...IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING TO SEE IT BECOME STRONGER AGAIN.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A FAIR AMOUNT OF SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES\r\nOVERNIGHT...MY ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\n305/9.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.   A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF BERTHA IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A 500 MB\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 2-3 DAYS. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE TO SLOW\r\nFURTHER AND TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AROUND THAT TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROUGH WILL MISS BERTHA AND LEAVE IT IN WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN A\r\nNEW AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST.  A VERY SLOW\r\nMOTION IS INDICATED AROUND DAYS 3-4 DUE TO THE WEAK STEERING AND\r\nBERTHA COULD ALSO MOVE ERRATICALLY AROUND THAT TIME.  BY DAY 5 THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE VARIABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n\r\nIT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON\r\nBERMUDA.  INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 23.5N  56.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 24.2N  57.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 25.4N  59.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 26.8N  60.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  61.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 30.0N  61.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 31.0N  61.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 33.0N  61.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 09 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AND THE EYE APPEARS\r\nTO BE REFORMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON 1200Z\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS BUT BERTHA LOOKS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING.\r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM...THE ATMOSPHERE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS\r\nINTENSITY MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH OR EVEN WHEN\r\nREINTENSIFICATION MIGHT OCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND IN THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES SOONER\r\nRATHER THAN LATER AND SHOWS BERTHA STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST\r\n24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS BUT\r\nWITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR MAKING IT UNCLEAR WHETHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES THE PREVIOUSLY SHOWN TREND OF SLOW WEAKENING. AS\r\nTHE ABOVE SHOWS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...300/10.  BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW TURN NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE\r\nCURRENTLY NEAR BERMUDA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A 500 MB\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE TRACK BECOMES A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN AS THE SHORTWAVE IS\r\nNOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO PICK UP THE CYCLONE.  RATHER...IT LEAVES\r\nBERTHA BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SLOW\r\nAND ERRATIC MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST.  TRACK MODELS HAVE\r\nNOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  AS A RESULT...THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AND LIES WEST\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nIT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON\r\nBERMUDA.  INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 24.2N  57.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 24.7N  58.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 25.9N  59.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 27.2N  60.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 28.3N  61.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  61.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 31.5N  61.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  60.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DRAMATICALLY IMPROVED DURING THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE NOW HAS A DISTINCTIVE EYE AND IS\r\nSURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A\r\nSEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM.  BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND\r\nSSTS SLOWLY FALL.  THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT BERTHA COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS RECENTLY WOBBLED A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION\r\nESTIMATE BUT THE 12 HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED...305/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME AS\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF OF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN BERTHA MAKING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BYPASS BERTHA TO THE NORTH AND LEAVE IT BEHIND IN\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 AND 4.  A SECOND\r\nTROUGH MOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ON DAY 5 COULD\r\nRESULT IN SOME NORTHWARD ACCELERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nIN GENERAL...TRACK MODELS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nIT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER BERTHA WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON\r\nBERMUDA.  INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 24.8N  58.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 25.6N  59.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 26.8N  60.2W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  61.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 29.1N  61.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 31.0N  61.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 32.5N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 35.5N  60.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2008\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES APPROACHED 100 KT A FEW HOURS AGO BUT HAVE SINCE COME\r\nBACK DOWN IN LINE WITH THE 00Z SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES...WHICH SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 90 KT.  BERTHA CURRENTLY LIES\r\nOVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ALMOST 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO FORECAST AN\r\nINCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDURING THAT PERIOD...SO ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS\r\nFORECAST AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAGAIN CALLS FOR BERTHA TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF MODEL.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5 DUE TO COOLING SSTS AND THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM...HOWEVER...FORECAST MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF...SO HOW MUCH WEAKENING OCCURS\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND DEPENDS IN\r\nPART ON HOW FAST BERTHA MOVES TOWARD COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR ALONG 315 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 10 KT...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTH.  AS THAT RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT\r\nTWO TO THREE DAYS...BERTHA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND SLOW DOWN.  THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS AGREED UPON\r\nWELL BY THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT THEN THEY START TO\r\nDIVERGE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...DUE TO VARYING\r\nDEPICTIONS OF WHEN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL EMERGE OFF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL FORECAST\r\nBERTHA TO SPEED UP BEYOND 72 HOURS AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY MORE\r\nPROGRESSIVE TROUGH...WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND THE 12Z ECMWF FORECAST\r\nBERTHA TO STALL AT 72-120 HOURS...WAITING FOR THAT TROUGH TO\r\nPERHAPS PICK BERTHA UP LATER.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AT THE END COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AS AN APPROXIMATE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  IT\r\nIS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A RELATIVELY SLOW\r\nMOTION AT AROUND 72 HOURS...NOT FAR EAST OF BERMUDA...AND BERTHA\r\nCOULD MOVE ERRATICALLY DURING THAT TIME FRAME.  THEREFORE...\r\nINTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nBERTHA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\nCONSIDERING THE COMBINED FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nTRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF BERTHA...THERE IS ALREADY A 43%\r\nCHANCE THAT BERMUDA WILL EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND\r\nSPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 25.5N  58.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 26.4N  59.9W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  60.8W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 28.7N  61.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 29.7N  61.8W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 31.0N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 32.5N  61.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 35.5N  60.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008\r\n\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.0 CORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...WHICH IS\r\nUSED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRIER AIR.  GIVEN\r\nTHIS EVOLUTION...I HAVE ELECTED TO BACK OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHIPS AND LGEM ALONG\r\nWITH THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF.  SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST 3-4 DAYS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 27-31 KT\r\nOF VERTICAL SHEAR IN 3-5 DAYS.  THEREFORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO\r\nOCCUR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nBERTHA'S FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW ABOUT 315/8.  AN\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE\r\nEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE\r\nIS LIKELY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS...SHOW A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF BERTHA IN AROUND 72 HOURS. \r\nTHIS DEVELOPMENT WOULD AT LEAST RETARD THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE AND...IF THE ANTICYCLONE TURNS OUT TO BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH...COULD EVEN FORCE A TURN TO THE LEFT AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS RESPOND TO THE INCREASED RIDGING\r\nMAINLY BY SLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES 30N LATITUDE. \r\nIT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR BERTHA TO MOVE ERRATICALLY IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS...BUT THE DETAILS OF THAT MOTION ARE OF COURSE UNKNOWN.  BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE-\r\nAMPLITUDE 500 MB TROUGH NEARING THE U.S EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCAUSE BERTHA TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHE RADII OF 12-FT SEAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS\r\nAND FORECAST BRANCH BASED ON A JASON SATELLITE ALTIMETER PASS OVER\r\nBERTHA...WHICH IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE WAVE MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 26.0N  59.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 27.0N  60.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  61.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 29.1N  61.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 29.9N  62.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 31.0N  62.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N  62.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 36.0N  61.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2008\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED TYPO IN LAST SENTENCE...\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF BERTHA HAS BECOME\r\nSOMEWHAT RAGGED THIS MORNING...AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS IN THE\r\nEYEWALL HAVE WARMED.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB DECREASING TO 77 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nGENEROUS.  ALTHOUGH BERTHA HAS WEAKENED...THE OUTER BANDING HAS\r\nINCREASED DURING THE NIGHT AND NOW SURROUNDS THE EYE AND CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE IT IS POOR TO NON-EXISTENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 315/8.  BERTHA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 37N59W.  THE\r\nANTICYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF\r\nBERTHA...AND FROM 36-72 HR THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IN THE WAKE OF THE\r\nTROUGH.  THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERRATIC\r\nMOTION AS BERTHA APPROACHES BERMUDA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nCALL FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THIS TIME AS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE VARIOUS TWISTS AND TURNS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT BERTHA COULD JOG LEFT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CLOSER TO BERMUDA AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO MOVE SOMEWHAT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER BERTHA\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER WARM WATER.\r\nTHIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...YET NONE\r\nOF THE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE CALLS FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.  GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL BUCK THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASED VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON THE DETAILS.  THIS...COMBINED\r\nWITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE BERTHA\r\nTO SLOWLY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 26.5N  60.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  61.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 29.5N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 30.1N  62.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 31.5N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  61.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 37.0N  61.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":31,"Date":"2008-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008\r\n \r\nA RECENT TRMM OVERPASS AND GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nOUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTED EARLIER HAS WRAPPED UP INTO AN OUTER\r\nEYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 75 N MI.  THIS FEATURE SURROUNDS\r\nTHE ORIGINAL INNER EYE WHICH IS ABOUT 10 N MI WIDE.  BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE\r\nINNER EYEWALL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND\r\nHAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A COMPLEX\r\nSTEERING PATTERN...CONSISTING OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nBERTHA THAT ARE MOVING EASTWARD...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n28N69W THAT IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA TO TURN NORTHWARD AS SHOWN IN THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  DURING THE 36-72 HR PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nDEVELOPING BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO BLOCK BERTHA'S\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION NEAR OR\r\nTO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.  THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nCURRENTLY AGREE THAT A SECOND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BYPASS BERTHA...LEAVING THE STORM\r\nTRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF\r\nBERMUDA.  IN A MAJOR SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NONE OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW BERTHA REACHING 40N IN 5 DAYS.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE... WITH THE TRACK SMOOTHING THROUGH\r\nSOME OF THE ERRATIC MOTION FORECASTS IN THE MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nIS CLOSER TO BERMUDA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND BERTHA COULD COME\r\nEVEN CLOSER TO BERMUDA IF THE JOGS TO THE LEFT IN THE UKMET AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS VERIFY.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING OVER BERTHA...AND THE STORM\r\nSTILL HAS A DAY OR TWO MORE OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\nTHUS...EVEN THOUGH NONE OF THE FORECAST MODELS CALL FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE COULD RE-INTENSIFY AT THE END OF THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN 24 HR.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE\r\nANTICYCLONE AND ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD OCCUR\r\nAS BERTHA REACHES COOLER WATERS AND RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 27.2N  60.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  61.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 29.0N  62.2W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 29.8N  62.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  62.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  62.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 36.0N  62.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":32,"Date":"2008-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUL 10 2008\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE INNER EYEWALL HAS BEEN SLOWLY DETERIORATING...WHILE A NEW OUTER\r\nEYEWALL HAS BEEN TAKING SHAPE.  THE MOST RECENT IMAGE...FROM SSMIS\r\nAT 2319Z...DEPICTS THE OUTER EYEWALL AS A COMPLETELY CLOSED RING AT\r\nA RADIUS OF ABOUT 60 N MI...WITH BARELY HALF OF THE INNER EYEWALL\r\nREMAINING.  TRENDS IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY REFLECT THE\r\nEVOLVING STRUCTURE...AS THE EYE HAS JUST ABOUT DISAPPEARED WHILE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN COOLING ABOVE THE OUTER RING SEEN IN THE\r\nMICROWAVE.  IN ADDITION...A QUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 23Z DEPICTED A\r\nSECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM IN THE OUTER EYEWALL.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE ALL 75 KT...BUT IT IS HARD TO ESTIMATE EVEN\r\nVERY SHORT-TERM INTENSITY CHANGES GIVEN THE ONGOING STRUCTURAL\r\nCHANGES...EVEN THOUGH THE OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE NOT\r\nPROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BERTHA WILL\r\nWEAKEN SOME UPON THE FINAL DEMISE OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND IT IS\r\nALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL WILL EVENTUALLY CONTRACT\r\nAND BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT I AM NOT GOING TO\r\nTRY TO EXPLICITLY FORECAST SUCH CHANGES.  THE MOST PRUDENT\r\nAPPROACH...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...IS\r\nTO KEEP THE INTENSITY LEVEL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIALLY INCREASES AND\r\nBERTHA PASSES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS JUST A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBERTHA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 315/7.  THE FORECAST AND ITS SUPPORTING REASONING\r\nHAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO...INCLUDING A\r\nVERY SLOW FORWARD MOTION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS NEAR BERMUDA.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME...ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST\r\nAND FORECAST A FASTER MOTION AT 4-5 DAYS...THIS TIME FORECASTING\r\nBERTHA TO BE PULLED NORTHWARD A LITTLE SOONER BY A TROUGH ALONG THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST BY THEN...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH\r\nTO BLOCK BERTHA'S POLEWARD PROGRESS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THIS MUCH OF A SHIFT IN THE\r\nMODELS...BUT IT IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND MOST OF THE WAY TOWARD THE\r\nCONSENSUS.  SINCE THIS NEW TRACK STILL DOES NOT FORECAST BERTHA TO\r\nBE GOING ANY FASTER THAN ABOUT 5-7 KT AT THE END OF THE FIVE-DAY\r\nPERIOD...THIS ADJUSTMENT DOES NOT REPRESENT A HUGE CHANGE IN WHERE\r\nWE EXPECT BERTHA TO BE IN FIVE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT ACCOMPANYING THIS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE INDICATES THAT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF\r\nBERTHA'S TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE...THERE ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE\r\nTHAT WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA DURING THE\r\nNEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 27.7N  61.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 28.4N  61.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 29.5N  62.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 30.4N  62.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 31.1N  62.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 32.5N  61.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 34.5N  60.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 37.0N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":33,"Date":"2008-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE MICROWAVE DATA AT 02Z INDICATED THAT BERTHA WAS\r\nCONTINUING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WITH A FRAGMENT OF THE\r\nOLD INNER EYEWALL REMAINING INSIDE THE 60 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL. \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THEN SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN 77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS NOW FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/6.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT BERTHA WILL TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HR AS\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE MOVES EASTWARD.  SERIOUS\r\nGUIDANCE DIVERGENCE OCCURS BEYOND THAT TIME.  THE GFS IS NOW\r\nCALLING FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION FROM 48-120 HR...THE UKMET\r\nCALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS TRAPPING BERTHA IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND STALLING IT\r\nNEAR 31N61W.  THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST BERTHA TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO WEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST\r\nAND A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  SINCE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE NOT SHOWING\r\nMUCH RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WILL BE TO CALL FOR A SLOWER NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW TRACK LIES ON THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...WITH THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THIS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 36 HR. \r\nBASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL KEEP BERTHA AT 75 KT DURING THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF SOME STRENGTHENING AT THE END OF THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  STARTING IN 48-72 HR...IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHAT BERTHA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT FROM UNDER THE ANTICYCLONE AND\r\nENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SHOULD CAUSE BERTHA\r\nTO WEAKEN.  OCEAN ANALYSES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEANOGRAPHIC AND\r\nMARINE LABORATORY SHOW THAT THE WARM WATER UNDER BERTHA IS\r\nRELATIVELY SHALLOW...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS SLOW-MOVING\r\nSYSTEM COULD UPWELL COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT.  THIS COULD\r\nPARTICULARLY BE A FACTOR IF BERTHA STALLS FOR 24 HR OR MORE.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES INDICATE THAT...GIVEN\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF BERTHA'S TRACK...INTENSITY...AND\r\nSIZE...THERE REMAINS ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE THAT WINDS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 28.0N  61.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 28.8N  62.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 29.7N  62.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 30.4N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 31.3N  62.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N  61.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 34.0N  60.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  59.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":34,"Date":"2008-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW A SMALL FRAGMENT OF THE INNER\r\nEYEWALL WITHIN A BETTER DEFINED AND LARGER RING OF CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL.  CONVENTIONAL VIS/IR IMAGES SHOW\r\nTHAT BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE WITH GOOD OUTFLOW IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 75 KNOTS. THE FIRST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO BERTHA WILL BE\r\nLATER TODAY...SO I WILL BE MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WHEN THE PLANE GETS THERE. THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN\r\nCONFIGURATION...ANNULAR TYPE...AND LOW SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL NOT CHANGE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...BERTHA\r\nIS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS UNTIL SHEAR INCREASES AND MOVES OVER A COOLER\r\nOCEAN. THEN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE OUTER EYEWALL COULD SHRINK RESULTING IN INTENSIFICATION...\r\nI AM NOT CONSIDERING IT IN THIS FORECAST BECAUSE I HAVE NO IDEA\r\nWHEN OR IF THIS CYCLE WILL OCCUR.\r\n \r\nBERTHA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...AS ANTICIPATED...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nOR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS IN BETWEEN A SMALL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nAN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP BERTHA\r\nWITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.\r\nBERTHA IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BE VERY SLOW AND BERTHA IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 300 N MI IN THREE DAYS. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS THE CORE OF BERTHA\r\nMOVING WELL EAST OF BERMUDA BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND\r\nFARTHER OUT AND COULD REACH THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS.\r\nTHEREFORE...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECASTS OF\r\nBERTHA'S...TRACK... INTENSITY...AND SIZE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OF\r\nBERMUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 28.5N  62.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 29.2N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 30.2N  62.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.8N  62.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 31.5N  61.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 32.5N  60.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  59.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 37.0N  58.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":35,"Date":"2008-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN\r\nINVESTIGATING BERTHA AND FOUND A 976 MB MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM REPORTED WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...700 MB...HAVE BEEN OF\r\nTHE ORDER OF 90 TO 99 KNOTS IN NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS\r\nRESPECTIVELY. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 72 KNOTS BUT THE DATA WAS\r\nRAIN CONTAMINATED. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MEASUREMENTS\r\nFOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KNOTS. LATEST AMSU DATA SHOW THAT\r\nTHE INNER WALL HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND IS ALMOST\r\nCLOSED AGAIN...SO THE CHANGE FOR REINTENSIFICATION EXISTS. AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nWEAKEN WHEN IT REACHES COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS SLOWLY BEGAN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SHORTWAVE\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES COAST IS GOING TO BYPASS\r\nBERTHA AND WILL LEAVE THE HURRICANE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS FOR A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nSLOW MOTION TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE SUGGESTING THAT BERTHA WILL CONTINUE WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS AND I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF BERTHA KEEPS MEANDERING A\r\nLITTLE LONGER. IN FACT...SOME MODELS KEEP BERTHA LOOPING FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 29.1N  62.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 29.5N  62.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.2N  62.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 30.6N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  62.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 32.5N  62.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 34.0N  61.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 35.0N  60.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":36,"Date":"2008-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 11 2008\r\n \r\nTHE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BERTHA HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nTHAT MUCH SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAGO...AND THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE SAME...SO\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT.  BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THERE IS STILL SOMETHING OF AN INNER EYEWALL THAT\r\nREFUSES TO COMPLETELY GO AWAY...WHILE THE OUTER EYEWALL PERSISTS AS\r\nA CLOSED RING AT A SLIGHTLY SMALLER RADIUS THAN 24 HOURS AGO.  ALL\r\nOF THAT MEANS THAT THE WELL-ADVERTISED EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS\r\nNOT EXACTLY PROCEEDING AT A BLISTERING PACE...AND I AM REALLY NOT\r\nSURE HOW THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE WILL EVOLVE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO.  PERSISTENCE MIGHT BE A GOOD GUIDE...SO A VERY SLOW\r\nCHANGE IN BERTHA'S STRUCTURE WILL BE THE ASSUMPTION DRIVING THE\r\nFLAT INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS.  VERY GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST THEREAFTER...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A CONSENSUS OF OUR\r\nPRIMARY INTENSITY MODELS...AS BERTHA TAKES ITS TIME MOVING TOWARD\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST AN\r\nEXACT COPY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS CAUGHT IN A VERY WEAK STEERING REGIME AS IT CONTINUES\r\nMOVING...BARELY...AT 335/4.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT OFFER MUCH\r\nPROGNOSTIC EVIDENCE THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT\r\nAMPLITUDE WILL BE ABLE TO GET BERTHA MOVING MUCH FASTER WITHIN THE\r\nFIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE\r\nU.S. NORTHEAST COAST WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BYPASS BERTHA WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTH...AND NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO ACCELERATE\r\nAHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH WITHIN FIVE DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT TROUGH\r\nLOOKS TO BE STRONGER AND MIGHT TRULY PICK UP BERTHA BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME.  IN BETWEEN THOSE TWO TROUGHS...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW\r\nMUCH OF A RIDGE MIGHT FORM NORTH OF BERTHA...AND SOME OF THEM\r\nFORECAST BERTHA TO STALL WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  IN\r\nADDITION...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AT LEAST SOME SOUTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION ON DAY 5...IN RESPONSE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST\r\nTO BE NOT FAR NORTHEAST OF BERTHA BY THAT TIME.  THE RESULT OF THE\r\nCOMPLICATED SET OF INDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS IS A CONSENSUS THAT\r\nLEADS ME TO SLOW DOWN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST SLIGHTLY...ALSO\r\nWITH A NUDGE TO THE WEST...ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY THAT SIMPLY BENDS BERTHA'S MOTION GRADUALLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT... AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 3 KT THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST. \r\nSOME ERRATIC MOTION AT SOME POINT ALONG THE WAY WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING.\r\n\r\nTHE PROBABILITY OF WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OCCURRING IN\r\nBERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AS CONVEYED IN THE WIND SPEED\r\nPROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN EACH ADVISORY PACKAGE...HAS BEEN\r\nGRADUALLY RISING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HAS NOW\r\nREACHED 58%.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 29.4N  62.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  62.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 30.6N  62.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 31.2N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 31.7N  62.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 33.0N  62.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 34.0N  61.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  60.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":37,"Date":"2008-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL REMNANT\r\nOF BERTHA IS FINALLY DISSIPATING...WITH THE CLOUD TOPS COOLING IN\r\nTHE LARGE OUTER EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nUNCHANGED FROM 6 HR AGO...AND BASED ON THIS AND PERSISTENCE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BUT HAS DECREASED\r\nSOMEWHAT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/4...AND THE 4 KT FORWARD SPEED COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS.  BERTHA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN\r\nAN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO\r\nBYPASS BERTHA WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE FORMING NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL RESPOND TO THIS\r\nBY JOGGING BERTHA TO THE WEST CLOSER TO BERMUDA....WHILE THE GFS...\r\nHWRF..AND GFDL CALL FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE\r\nEAST.  THIS PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION FOR ABOUT 72 HR...WITH THE 48-72 HR POSITION A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN DEFERENCE TO THE MODELS FORECASTING\r\nA WESTWARD JOG.  AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT\r\nA NEW TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH\r\nTO LIFT BERTHA TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODELS\r\nRUNS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH THE DIRECTION AND\r\nSPEED OF MOTION.  THUS...THE NEW FORECAST FOR THOSE TIMES IS ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CONSIDERABLY\r\nSLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES.  BERTHA SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24-36 HR WHILE UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER\r\nWARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BY 36 HR...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THEN...BY 72 HR THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD INCREASE\r\nTHE WEAKENING RATE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HR...THEN SHOWS MORE WEAKENING DUE TO THE\r\nEXPECTED SHEAR.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR BERMUDA LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 29.7N  62.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 30.1N  62.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 30.7N  62.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 31.3N  62.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 31.9N  62.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 33.5N  62.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 35.0N  61.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 36.5N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":38,"Date":"2008-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS\r\nOF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nSTRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.  NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION...BERTHA IS PROBABLY CAUSING UPWELLING\r\nAND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS TO THE\r\nNORTH ABOUT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS\r\nWILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL FAVORS A\r\nGENERAL SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...AS BERTHA GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLOW PACE. DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO TURN BERTHA\r\nTOWARD THE EAST BEYOND DAY FOUR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 29.9N  62.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 30.2N  62.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.7N  62.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 31.3N  62.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  62.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.0N  62.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 35.5N  60.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":39,"Date":"2008-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS COMPLETED TWO PASSES THROUGH THE EYE OF\r\nBERTHA AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 79 AND 74 KT. THE\r\nSFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE DID NOT REPORT ANY HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS...IN FACT...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE 58 KNOTS IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\n65 KNOTS...MAKING BERTHA BARELY A HURRICANE. ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS\r\nARE NOT HOSTILE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BUT BERTHA HAS BEEN LOCATED \r\nTOO MANY HOURS IN THE SAME AREA PRODUCING UPWELLING. THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS LOST A LOT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nIS LARGE AND VIGOROUS WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED.\r\nTHEREFORE...BERTHA COULD GATHER SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT GETS OUT THAT\r\nAREA OF COOL WATERS INDUCED BY THE HURRICANE ITSELF. FOR\r\nNOW...BERTHA IS KEPT AS A 65 KNOT HURRICANE FOR A DAY OR TWO WITH A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR. BERTHA IS\r\nLIKELY TO BECOME LARGER AS IT GAINS LATITUDE AND BEGIN TO INTERACT\r\nWITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. \r\n\r\nBERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY. THE PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO....SO ONLY\r\nA PAINFULLY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED. BEYOND THREE\r\nDAYS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION AND LOCATED BETWEEN AN EASTWARD MOVING\r\nTROUGH AND A LARGER CUT OFF LOW TO THE EAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nFORCE BERTHA ON A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK. THIS IS THE SOLUTION\r\nPROVIDED MY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 29.9N  62.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 30.4N  62.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  62.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 32.0N  62.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  62.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 34.5N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 35.5N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 35.5N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":40,"Date":"2008-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS SEEMINGLY DROPPED ANCHOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST\r\nOF BERMUDA...AND IT HAS BEEN ABOUT 12 HOURS SINCE THE CENTER HAS\r\nMOVED ENOUGH TO ASSIGN A MEANINGFUL FORWARD MOTION. THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS STUCK WITHIN A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nIT SHARES WITH TWO MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE NEAR THE BAHAMAS\r\nAND THE OTHER ABOUT 1000 N MI TO ITS EAST. THE EASTERN LOW IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE MODELS TO LIFT OUT AS A BIT OF RIDGING FORMS JUST\r\nNORTHEAST OF BERTHA TOMORROW...AND ONCE THAT FEATURE\r\nMATERIALIZES...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AGAIN.\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD REACH THE\r\nU.S. NORTHEAST COAST AND START PUSHING BERTHA EASTWARD. VERY LATE\r\nIN THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...A NEW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP CLOSE BY TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nBERTHA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD HAVE A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nOF MOTION BY THEN.  BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THIS\r\nSCENARIO...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS...SINCE NEARLY ALL OF DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION.  IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT EVEN\r\nSLOW-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES SUCH AS THIS ONE CAN POSE CHALLENGING\r\nTRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...AND THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nDETERMINE EXACTLY HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL COME TO\r\nBERMUDA. EVIDENCE OF THAT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN SOME OF THE LATEST\r\n48-HOUR MODEL TRACKS...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF JUST A HAIR EAST OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL...BUT THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST.  THE SPREAD AT 4-5 DAYS\r\nIS EVEN LARGER BUT THE SENSE IS FOR A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION AT A\r\nSLIGHTLY GREATER FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT...SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE WE HAD AIRCRAFT DATA THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND KEEPING BERTHA AS A HURRICANE IS SUPPORTED BY THE\r\nLATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS.  FOLLOWING A BRIEF STRONG\r\nBURST AROUND 00Z...THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY ON THE\r\nDECLINE.  A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR IN THE\r\nFUTURE...GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF OCEAN UPWELLING UNDER A STATIONARY\r\nHURRICANE...AND SINCE WHEN BERTHA DOES GET MOVING IT SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 29.9N  62.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.2N  62.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 30.8N  62.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  63.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 33.2N  63.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 35.5N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 35.5N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 34.5N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":41,"Date":"2008-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BERTHA HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS\r\nMORNING.  INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING\r\nSOUTHWARD.  HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASSES\r\nSUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NORTH OF THE CENTER SEEN IN THE IR\r\nIMAGERY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE ONSET OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS AN AVERAGE OF LOCATIONS FROM THE IR\r\nAND MICROWAVE DATA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT...BUT\r\nTHIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  LARGE-SCALE MODEL ANALYSES SHOW\r\nTHAT BERTHA IS EMBEDDED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWING A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE ABOUT TO PASS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES SHOULD KEEP\r\nBERTHA NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY\r\nA SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nAMPLIFIES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF BERTHA AND A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER 72 HR...A\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY\r\nSTEER BERTHA EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAINS SOME\r\nSPREAD IN BOTH THE DIRECTION AND SPEED OF MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST\r\n72 HR...AND EVENTUALLY WINDS UP AT THE 5 DAY POSITION FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nECMWF.\r\n\r\nBERTHA HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR 24 HR...AND IT IS LIKELY\r\nUPWELLING COLDER WATER UNDERNEATH IT.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS STATIONARY.  WHEN\r\nBERTHA STARTS MOVING...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IT OVER COOLER\r\nWATER AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DESPITE THESE\r\nISSUES...THE GFDL AND HWRF MAINTAIN BERTHA AS A HURRICANE FOR 5\r\nDAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS WEAKENING TO 35 KT BY 5\r\nDAYS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES...CALLING FOR BERTHA TO WEAKEN TO 50 KT BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 29.8N  62.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 30.1N  62.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 30.8N  63.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 32.0N  63.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 33.4N  63.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 35.5N  62.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 35.5N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 34.5N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":42,"Date":"2008-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA HAS DECREASED EXCEPT WITHIN A BAND TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...BERTHA STILL HAS A LARGE AND\r\nVIGOROUS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55\r\nKNOTS AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL GIVE US ADDITIONAL INTENSITY\r\nAND WIND RADII INFORMATION LATER TODAY. SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD\r\nINDUCE WEAKENING...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND INTENSITY MODELS\r\nEITHER STRENGTHEN OR KEEP BERTHA WITH THE SAME INTENSITY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS OPTED FOR AN INITIAL WEAKENING AND THEN\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODELS CALLING FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT ABOUT 2\r\nTO 3 KNOTS. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND A TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS PROCESS WILL SLOW AND TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA COULD\r\nBE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 30.2N  63.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 30.4N  63.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  63.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 33.0N  63.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  63.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 36.0N  61.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  54.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":43,"Date":"2008-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST FINISHED TWO PASSES\r\nACROSS BERTHA. FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SFMR AND DROPSONDES INDICATE\r\nTHAT BERTHA CONTINUES AS A 55 KT TROPICAL STORM. HIGH RESOLUTION\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED. SOME OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE RESTRENGTHENING WHILE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nMAINTAIN BERTHA WITH BASICALLY THE SAME INTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS BERTHA AS A 50 KT CYCLONE THROUGH FIVE DAYS....AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR IF\r\nBERTHA BEGINS TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  \r\n\r\nBERTHA FOOLED ME ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THAT BERTHA BEGAN A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT EARLIER TODAY BUT...IN FACT...IT WAS MOVING IN\r\nCIRCLES AND IT COULD BE DOING ONE OF THESE LOOPS AGAIN. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH IS NOW MORE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...INSISTS THAT\r\nTHE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD.\r\nTHE CIRCULATION SHOULD THEN EXPAND WHILE GRADUALLY ACQUIRING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IT APPEARS THAT\r\nBERTHA COULD BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 30.2N  63.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  63.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 32.0N  63.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 33.5N  63.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 35.0N  62.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 35.5N  60.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 35.0N  57.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 35.0N  54.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":44,"Date":"2008-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT BERTHA IS TAPPING LIGHTLY ON THE ACCELERATOR...WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/3.  MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED WITH A SUBTLE TURN TO\r\nTHE RIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AROUND A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE STORM.  BY THAT TIME THE MODELS\r\nFORECAST BERTHA TO BE NORTH OF THE RIDGE...AND IN BETWEEN A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A CUTOFF LOW\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  BERTHA AND THE CUTOFF LOW ARE\r\nTHEN FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER IN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX\r\nMANNER ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...ALTHOUGH A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPLIED BY THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE UNUSUAL UNDULATIONS IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS ARE SUPPORTED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT THE DIPS\r\nAND TURNS IN THE MODEL TRACKS ARE A BIT MORE EXTREME THAN SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THERE IS ALSO GREAT DISAGREEMENT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF BERTHA DURING THAT TIME\r\nFRAME...BUT THE FIVE-DAY CONSENSUS POINT IS NOT FAR FROM THAT IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO ON BALANCE THE NEW TRACK IS NOT THAT\r\nMUCH OF A CHANGE.\r\n\r\nI HAVE NO SOLID REASON TO ALTER THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT...AS\r\nTHE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS AROUND 23Z ONLY CAPTURED THE WESTERN HALF OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  CLOUD TOPS OF THE OUTER BANDS HAVE WARMED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...BUT IF ANYTHING THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS\r\nINCREASED EVER SO SLIGHTLY.  A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY\r\nMODELS DOES NOT SUGGEST MUCH CHANGE IN BERTHA'S STRENGTH DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT PASSES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY THROUGH 36 HOURS AND ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM...BUT STILL BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT FORECAST BERTHA TO\r\nAGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE.  WHILE THAT POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED\r\nOUT...IT APPEARS TO BE THE LESS LIKELY OPTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN\r\nTHE CONVOLUTED STATE OF BERTHA'S INNER CORE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 30.5N  63.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  63.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 33.0N  63.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 34.6N  63.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 35.8N  62.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 35.5N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 34.5N  56.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 35.5N  53.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":45,"Date":"2008-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA IS FINALLY...TRULY ON THE MOVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 335/7.  THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO PERKED UP A BIT\r\nWITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS...EVEN IN THE SHORT TIME SINCE THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE MADE AT 06Z...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS ON THE HIGH END OF THOSE ESTIMATES AT 55 KT.  RADAR IMAGERY\r\nFROM BERMUDA SHOWS THAT OUTER BANDS OF BERTHA HAVE BEGUN PASSING\r\nOVER THAT ISLAND...AND THE PRIMARY BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPS\r\nAROUND FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS NOT FAR\r\nOFFSHORE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF BERTHA WILL PASS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA LATER TODAY...CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING\r\nTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THAT ISLAND.  GIVEN THE SPRAWLING\r\nNATURE OF THE SYSTEM...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN STRENGTH DO NOT\r\nAPPEAR LIKELY TODAY.  THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF STILL FORECAST BERTHA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n\r\nBERTHA HAS MADE NORTHWARD PROGRESS FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nFORECAST...AND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SPED UP A LITTLE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.  ONCE BERTHA ROUNDS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO ITS EAST AND\r\nSTARTS HEADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...THE\r\nSTEERING MECHANISMS BECOME COMPLICATED DUE TO A CUTOFF LOW FORECAST\r\nTO APPROACH BERTHA FROM THE EAST.  THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS COULD RESULT IN AN UNDULATING BUT GENERALLY\r\nEASTWARD TRACK OF BERTHA AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK\r\nINCLUDES THESE UNDULATIONS...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THEM JUST A\r\nLITTLE.  THE NEW FIVE-DAY POINT HAS ALSO BEEN SPED UP TOWARD THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN ATLANTIC A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS MODEL\r\nRUNS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 31.5N  63.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 32.6N  63.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 34.2N  63.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 35.8N  62.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 36.4N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 35.0N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 34.5N  55.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 37.5N  51.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":46,"Date":"2008-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6.  BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND SLIDES EASTWARD.  WITH\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED 50-60 NMI FROM THE CENTER...\r\nHOWEVER...THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT\r\nFOR CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA...WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. AFTER BERTHA PASSES BERMUDA...A\r\nCOMPLICATED STEERING PATTERNS AWAITS...WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/42W FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN BERTHA\r\nAND THE UPPER LOW.  THE HWRF AND GFDL MAINTAIN A STRONG TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND SWING BERTHA RAPIDLY AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER\r\nLOW...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE UPPER LOW NORTHEASTWARD AFTER ABOUT\r\n72 HOURS...LEAVING BERTHA BEHIND.  AS THE UPPER-LOW AND BERTHA\r\nAPPROACH...NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE MARKEDLY...AND\r\nI SUSPECT THE HWRF/GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING BERTHA TOO STRONG AND\r\nMAY THEREFORE BE OVERDOING THE INTERACTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA RIGHT\r\nNOW...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1030Z SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS MIGHT BE\r\nA LITTLE BELOW THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.  THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA REVEALED A 50-60 NMI RMW.  GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED WHILE THE STORM IS IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF BERMUDA.  THE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE BERTHA ENCOUNTERS SOME\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 32.0N  63.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 33.2N  63.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 34.8N  63.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 35.9N  62.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 36.0N  61.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 34.5N  58.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 38.0N  51.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":47,"Date":"2008-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nBERTHA FOUND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 60 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT...WINDS THAT WERE WERE CONFIRMED BY A CO-LOCATED\r\nDROPSONDE.  OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN A RESURGENCE\r\nIN DEEP CONVECTION...PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF BERTHA FINALLY MOVING\r\nAWAY FROM WHERE IT HAD BEEN PARKED.   THIS STRENTHENING REQUIRED\r\nTHE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA...AS THIS PORTION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS YET TO CLEAR THE ISLAND.  UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE\r\nEXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT IS NOW EXPECTED THAT BERTHA\r\nWILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECT THE STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/6...WHICH REPRESENTS THE MOTION OF THE\r\nOVERALL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THAT OF THE SMALL SWIRL THAT IS VISIBLE\r\nROTATING WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE RING.  THE SHORT TERM TRACK\r\nPHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED...WITH BERTHA EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. AFTER THAT...BERTHA'S PATH WILL BE\r\nDETERMINED BY ITS INTERACTION WITH A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCURRENTLY NEAR 39N/43W BUT FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE IS SLOWER\r\nTHAN IT HAD BEEN...WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT\r\nTHE UPPER LOW WILL SHOVE BERTHA SOUTHEASTWARD...AWAY FROM THE\r\nWESTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LESS ACCELERATION ON DAYS\r\n4-5 THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT EVEN SO IS FASTER THAN JUST\r\nABOUT EVERYTHING EXCEPT THE HWRF AND GFDL. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 33.0N  64.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 34.2N  63.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 35.3N  62.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 35.7N  61.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 35.2N  60.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 34.0N  57.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 35.5N  54.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 38.0N  51.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":48,"Date":"2008-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BERTHA IS STEADILY MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN...SO THE\r\nDIRECTION OF MOTION HAS BEEN FREQUENTLY CHANGING...BUT THE ESTIMATE\r\nVALID AT ADVISORY TIME IS 015/8.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERTHA\r\nIS SLIDING SOUTHWESTWARD AND PUTTING THE SQUEEZE ON WHAT IS LEFT OF\r\nTHE NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN.  THAT RIDGE HAS BEEN\r\nSTEERING BERTHA NORTHWARD TODAY...SO AS IT ERODES...BERTHA IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO MAKE A SHARPER RIGHT\r\nTURN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THEN HEAD SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MORE\r\nDIRECTLY INTERACTS WITH THE CUTOFF LOW.  ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT OUT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...LEAVING\r\nBERTHA TO BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD BY THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK CONTINUES TO DEPICT WHAT LOOKS LIKE A SINE WAVE...THIS TIME\r\nWITH SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLITUDE...BUT WITH THE NET MOTION OVER FIVE\r\nDAYS BEING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF BERTHA BEYOND\r\n72 HOURS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AS THE VARIOUS MODELS AGREE ON THE\r\nPATH BUT NOT ON HOW FAST THE CYCLONE WILL GO.\r\n\r\nTHE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS ROTATED AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...WHICH DIRECTLY AFFECTED BERMUDA EARLIER\r\nTODAY...AND NOW IS FOCUSED SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nOTHERWISE...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED...AS ARE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 55 KT.  USING CONTINUITY\r\nFROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n60 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR\r\nBERTHA TO BE AT HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHIS FORECAST MIGHT NOT BE EXACTLY RIGHT...BUT THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS SUGGESTS BERTHA WILL BE NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN\r\nTROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR A FEW DAYS.  A WEAKENING\r\nTREND IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS\r\nBERTHA HEADS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NOTICEABLY COOLER WATERS...IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 33.8N  63.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 34.9N  63.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 35.7N  61.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 35.4N  60.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 34.4N  59.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 33.5N  55.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 36.0N  52.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 39.5N  49.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":49,"Date":"2008-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS PUT A LITTLE MORE DISTANCE BETWEEN ITSELF AND\r\nBERMUDA...AND THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT IS\r\nMATERIALIZING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/8...BUT THE\r\nHEADING WILL LIKELY CHANGE ALMOST CONTINUOUSLY DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...DURING WHICH TIME BERTHA IS FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL\r\nOF THE MODELS TO KEEP TURNING RIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS ABOUT TO EXIT THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST AND GIVE BERTHA A SHOVE TO THE EAST...BUT ALSO A LARGE CUTOFF\r\nLOW CLOSING IN ON BERTHA FROM THE OTHER DIRECTION. ONCE BERTHA AND\r\nTHE CUTOFF LOW MEET UP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES BERTHA WILL THEN FOLLOW AN UNDULATING TRACK. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MOTION IS SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD ON DAY TWO...THEN\r\nGENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3-5 AS THE CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST\r\nTO LIFT OUT AGAIN...ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH MOST MODELS. THE\r\nMODELS DO NOT AGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF BERTHA ON\r\nDAYS 3-5...IN PART DUE TO VARYING DEPICTIONS OF BERTHA'S DEPTH AND\r\nSTRENGTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nPRESUMES THAT BERTHA WILL BE WEAKER BY THAT TIME AND NOT ACCELERATE\r\nAS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE SUGGESTING...AND\r\nINSTEAD RELIES MAINLY ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES ARE UNCHANGED.  THE SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF BERTHA REMAINS MUCH AS IT WAS A FEW HOURS AGO...AND\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES GENERALLY SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT\r\n60 KT.  BERTHA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BETWEEN\r\n26 AND 27 CELSIUS...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nLIKELY GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.  BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS AGAIN FORECAST DUE TO COOLER WATERS\r\nAND A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR.  THAT SCENARIO IS THE\r\nONE PAINTED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH DIFFERS FROM THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF...BOTH OF WHICH FORECAST BERTHA TO REMAIN A HURRICANE\r\nFOR MUCH OF THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 34.7N  63.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 35.7N  62.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 35.9N  60.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 34.7N  59.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 33.7N  58.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 34.0N  55.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 37.0N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 41.0N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":50,"Date":"2008-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING\r\nWITH A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE STORM...\r\nAND APPARENT EYEWALL MESOVORTICES ROTATING QUICKLY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER. HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT SHOWS WINDS OF 55-60 KT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE STORM\r\nSTILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AS INDICATED BY ALL\r\nMODELS.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST NO INTENSIFICATION BUT THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL/HWRF EMPHATICALLY SUGGEST BERTHA\r\nWILL BECOME...AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME AS THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT\r\nSEEM TO BE TOO FAVORABLE FOR A HURRICANE BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS.  \r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING 030/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. \r\nA NARROW RIDGE TO THE EAST OF BERTHA IS STEERING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR THE TIME BEING.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nERODED BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS WITHIN 24 HOURS AS A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYERED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.  THE BIGGEST\r\nDISCREPANCY IS WHEN THE EXPECTED RIGHT TURN OF THE CYCLONE\r\nEMERGES.   THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOW THAT THE TURN WILL BE DELAYED FOR\r\nAN EXTRA 12 HOURS...ALLOWING THE STORM TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE AS\r\nCOMPARED TO THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT\r\nTHE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL CAMPS...AND SHIFTS THE TRACK\r\nNORTHWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM.  UNCERTAINTY ALSO REMAINS HIGH IN THE\r\nLONG-RANGE FORECAST AS THE GFDL/HWRF ARE STILL SHOWING BERTHA\r\nSHOOTING OUT TO SEA WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ARE MUCH SLOWER. \r\nBECAUSE THE STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE SUCH A WELL-DEVELOPED\r\nSTRUCTURE LIKE THE FORMER MODELS ARE INDICATING...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL LEAN MORE HEAVILY ON THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS THAT DELAY\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S EVENTUAL DEMISE.  AROUND 120 HOURS A\r\nCOMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTERACTION\r\nMAY...HOPEFULLY...START TO SIGNAL THE DEMISE OF BERTHA AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 35.6N  62.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 36.4N  61.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 36.2N  60.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 35.1N  59.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 34.1N  58.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 34.5N  54.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 37.5N  50.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 41.5N  46.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":51,"Date":"2008-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED A BIT OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS AS THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...AND THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH\r\nMIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM HAS ABOUT A\r\nDAY LEFT TO POSSIBLY INTENSIFY BEFORE WIND SHEAR INCREASES...\r\nALTHOUGH SO FAR BERTHA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS... AND NOT TOO\r\nFAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FORECASTING\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTING IN ABOUT\r\n96 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF BERTHA\r\nAROUND DAY 5.\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS SHOWN NO INDICATION OF THE FORECAST RIGHT TURN AND\r\nCONTINUES ON A TRACK OF ABOUT 030/8.  HOWEVER THIS CHANGE IN\r\nDIRECTION SHOULD OCCUR SOON AS MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING IS BECOMING\r\nWEAKER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  AS THE RIDGE COLLAPSES...BERTHA\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED MORE TO THE EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST\r\nIN AN ARCING SEMICIRCLE FASHION AROUND A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED LOW TO\r\nTHE EAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN TRACK\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.  \r\n\r\nBERTHA IS NOW THE LONGEST-LIVED JULY TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC\r\nHISTORY...WITH 12.5 DAYS AS A TROPICAL STORM OR GREATER.  THIS\r\nECLIPSES THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 12.25 DAYS OCCURRING IN 1916 FROM\r\nSTORM #2.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 36.4N  62.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 36.8N  61.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 36.3N  60.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 35.1N  59.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 34.2N  57.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 35.7N  53.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 39.5N  49.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 43.5N  44.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":52,"Date":"2008-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DEGRADE THIS\r\nEVENING AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE STORM.  THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nFROM 2222 UTC SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-55 KT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE.  BERTHA STILL HAS A\r\nLITTLE TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN...SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nLOW WHILE THE STORM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nKEEPS BERTHA JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nCOOLER WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN\r\nBERTHA'S GRADUAL DEMISE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\n \r\nBERTHA APPEARS TO BE PUTTING ON THE BRAKES ONCE AGAIN.  THERE ARE\r\nINDICATIONS THAT THE ANTICIPATED EASTWARD TURN HAS COMMENCED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/5.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT SHOWING BERTHA TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-18 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER...AROUND\r\nTHE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW TO THE EAST.  AS THE DEEP-LAYER LOW LIFTS\r\nNORTHWARD IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...BERTHA SHOULD FINALLY FEEL THE\r\nWESTERLIES AND STARTING HEADING NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE IS A LARGE\r\nAMOUNT OF SPREAD ON BERTHA'S FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFS SHOWING LESS ACCELERATION...WHILE THE GFDL...\r\nGFDN...AND NOGAPS RACE BERTHA NORTHEASTWARD.  FOR NOW...THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...AND IS CLOSE THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE 12Z ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 36.8N  61.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 36.9N  61.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  60.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 34.7N  59.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  57.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 36.5N  52.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 40.0N  48.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 44.5N  42.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":53,"Date":"2008-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA IS CAUGHT BETWEEN MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERLY FLOW\r\nON THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS\r\nHAS RESULTED IN BERTHA'S CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING INCREASINGLY\r\nSTRETCHED IN A SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...THE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 55 KT. BERTHA IS BEGINNING\r\nAN ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTAKE THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS. SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THIS\r\nPERIOD...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERING COOLER WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS BERTHA REMAINING JUST SHY OF HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. \r\n \r\nBERTHA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 100/05.  A SOUTHEAST TURN IS EXPECTED LATER\r\nTODAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE CYCLONICALLY ROTATES AROUND A LARGE UPPER-LOW TO ITS\r\nEAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS OF\r\nTHE FORECAST BUT THEN DIVERGES AT DAYS 3-5.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nSPANS NEARLY 1400 MILES AT DAY 5 AND IS BOUNDED BY THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL...WHICH RACES THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS\r\nMODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH SLOWER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nHWRF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS LIE IN BETWEEN THESE OUTLIER\r\nSOLUTIONS AND ARE THE BASIS FOR THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 36.4N  61.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 36.1N  60.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 35.0N  60.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 34.1N  58.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 34.0N  56.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  52.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 40.0N  47.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 43.5N  41.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":54,"Date":"2008-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED SINCE YESTERDAY\r\nWITH AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE.  HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0938\r\nUTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT.  THIS ESTIMATE WILL BE\r\nUSED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE EFFECTS OF\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE STORM MAY BE TEMPERED BY\r\nINCREASING SSTS.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY ALL MODELS IN A\r\nFEW DAYS...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN MORE IN THE LONG-TERM. \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR IN 4 OR 5 DAYS DUE TO THE\r\nEFFECTS OF STRONG MID-LATITUDE WINDS AND RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS.\r\n\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA HELPED PLACE THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST THIS MORNING...YIELDING AN UNCERTAIN MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n100/3.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHEAST TODAY AS IT PINWHEELS AROUND A LARGE MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON AN ARCING PATH TAKING THE SYSTEM FARTHER AWAY FROM\r\nNORTH AMERICA.  IN TWO TO THREE DAYS... A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL\r\nAPPROACH BERTHA FROM THE WEST.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW\r\nQUICKLY THE STORM WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA...BUT MODELS ARE GENERALLY\r\nFASTER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER.  \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 36.6N  60.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  60.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 35.0N  58.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 34.7N  56.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 35.6N  54.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 40.0N  49.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 43.5N  44.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 47.5N  39.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":55,"Date":"2008-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n\r\nBERTHA REMAINS A POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A\r\nRAGGED EYE. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION FROM THIS MORNING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n60 KT.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE'S INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...A SLOW DECREASE\r\nIN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS SSTS DIMINISH SLOWLY ALONG THE TRACK.\r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF BERTHA SHOULD START IN ABOUT 3-4\r\nDAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH AND EVEN COOLER\r\nWATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...SHOWING ONLY A SLOW DEMISE OF THE STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS MADE THE SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 140/4. A\r\nLARGE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST IS NOW STEERING BERTHA\r\nAROUND ITS PERIPHERY. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nDURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST TAKING THE STORM TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST...EAST...THEN NORTHEAST. HOWEVER... THERE IS SOME\r\nDISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER BERTHA WILL BE SENT OUT TO SEA BY THE\r\nUPPER LOW OR WHETHER A SECOND TROUGH WILL FINISH OFF THE STORM.\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS GOING WITH A FASTER SOLUTION...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS IN THAT DIRECTION.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 36.1N  60.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 35.5N  59.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 34.7N  58.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 35.1N  55.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 36.9N  53.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 41.5N  47.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 46.5N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 52.5N  32.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":56,"Date":"2008-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA'S SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE \r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY LITTLE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND THERE ARE VIRTUALLY NO CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-50 DEGREES C.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO\r\n45 KT...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 2156 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nWINDS REMAIN 55-60 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.\r\nALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE PREDICTS LITTLE CHANGE IN BERTHA'S\r\nSTRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nAS SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL AND THE SHEAR INCREASES. \r\nBERTHA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. \r\n  \r\nBERTHA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE SOUTHEAST...140/7.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS AS\r\nBERTHA IS PREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION...BUT AT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MOST RECENT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...12Z UKMET...AND GFDL...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE\r\nEXPANDED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 35.4N  59.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 34.6N  58.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 34.5N  56.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 35.5N  54.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 37.6N  51.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 42.5N  45.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 48.0N  39.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 54.5N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":57,"Date":"2008-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON BERTHA AS THE\r\nREMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIMITED TO THE EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n45 KT AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT BERTHA'S WINDS HAVE\r\nINDEED DECREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO PERHAPS A\r\nGENEROUS 50 KT.  ALTHOUGH BERTHA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nWARMER WATERS TODAY...CONTINUED SHEAR SHOULD MEAN LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY.  IN FACT...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS PREDICTED\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH \r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS STILL MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 140/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nIS BEGINNING TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND BERTHA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD \r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW DURING THE NEXT 6-12\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER....BERTHA SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...OTHERWISE IT IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BERTHA SHOULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 3-4 DAYS AND COULD GET ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 34.5N  59.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 34.0N  58.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 34.5N  55.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 36.3N  53.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 38.4N  50.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 43.1N  44.3W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 49.0N  37.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 56.0N  27.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":58,"Date":"2008-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  58\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0912 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\nBERTHA WERE ABOUT 50 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...NEW\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nSTORM. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...I'M\r\nHESITANT TO LOWER THE WINDS TOO MUCH BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA AND\r\nTHE RESILENCY OF THE SYSTEM. 50 KT WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT IS TEMPTING TO\r\nLOWER THE WINDS A LITTLE MORE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nOCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS BELOW MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. BERTHA MAY\r\nBECOME A LARGE POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN THE HIGH LATITUDES OF\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT\r\n8 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN ITS MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY\r\nTOMORROW AS IT IS STEERED AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK AND\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THEREAFTER THE\r\nBIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER A NEW MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL\r\nCAPTURE BERTHA...LIKE THE UKMET/ECMWF SHOWS...OR THE STORM WILL\r\nREMAIN A MORE SEPARATE ENTITY LIKE THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. \r\nTHE OFFICAL FORECAST LEANS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...SHOWING A LITTLE MORE TROUGH INTERACTION. \r\n\r\nBERTHA COULD BECOME ONE OF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED STORMS IN\r\nHISTORY IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 34.2N  58.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 34.1N  56.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 35.2N  54.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 37.3N  51.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 39.3N  49.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 43.5N  43.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 51.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 57.5N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":59,"Date":"2008-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  59\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE\r\nAS A TROPICAL STORM WITH DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND OUTFLOW\r\nALOFT.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN WELL-MAINTAINED...ESPECIALLY IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50\r\nKT.  NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO AS THE STORM REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE\r\nSHEAR AND WANING SSTS.  THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD\r\nSTART SHORTLY AFTER 48 HR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND MORE\r\nRAPIDLY DECREASING SSTS...AND BY 120 HR...THE REMNANTS OF BERTHA\r\nWILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS MADE AN EASTWARD TURN AND IS MOVING ABOUT 090/10.  A\r\nBUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST OF BERTHA SHOULD STEER THE STORM MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST TOMORROW...FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nON AN ACCELERATING PATH OUT TO SEA.  THE GFS HAS CHANGED FROM THE\r\nSOUTH TO NORTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOW SHOWING MORE\r\nINTERACTION WITH A NEW MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nPRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n \r\nTO CLARIFY A PREVIOUS DISCUSSION COMMENT...BERTHA COULD BECOME ONE\r\nOF THE TOP 10 LONGEST-LIVED ATLANTIC STORMS...IN TERMS OF DAYS AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM OR GREATER...IF IT SURVIVES UNTIL SUNDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 34.0N  57.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 34.4N  55.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 35.9N  53.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 37.8N  51.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 39.9N  48.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 45.0N  41.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 53.5N  30.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":60,"Date":"2008-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  60\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA CONTINUES TO BE A RELENTLESS CYCLONE AS A NEW BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION RECENTLY FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE THUS\r\nMAINTAINING THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER\r\nWATERS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS...BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS AND POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION COULD RESULT IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nARE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH SOME MODELS\r\nSHOWING BERTHA BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\nWHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW A WEAKENING CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED INTO A\r\nLARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING EARLY WITH A LITTLE RESTRENGTHENING\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nBERTHA CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nRESULTING IN A TURN TOWARDS THE EAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 100/15.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMPLETES ITS ROTATION\r\nAROUND THE LOW AND THEN ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. \r\nAS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH AN ACCELERATING CYCLONE...TRACK GUIDANCE \r\nDIVERGES QUITE A BIT DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENT FORWARD SPEEDS.  IN\r\nGENERAL...TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT THEY HAVE NOT\r\nDEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH RESULTS\r\nIN A SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK FORECAST THAN BEFORE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 33.9N  55.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 34.8N  53.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 36.7N  51.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 38.8N  48.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 41.2N  45.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 47.0N  36.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 56.0N  24.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":61,"Date":"2008-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  61\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nTENACIOUS BERTHA CONTINUES TO HAVE A REMARKABLE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH...AN EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50\r\nKNOTS...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. AS BERTHA MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH\r\nLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. \r\n\r\nBERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. \r\nIT APPEARS THAT FINALLY BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.  SOME\r\nMODELS MAKE BERTHA EXTRATROPICAL SOONER THAN OTHERS BUT THEY ALL\r\nLEAD TO THE SAME ENDING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 34.8N  53.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 36.6N  51.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  48.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 42.5N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 46.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 54.0N  31.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":62,"Date":"2008-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  62\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n\r\nBERTHA HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED CLOUD PATTERN...OCCASIONALLY SHOWING\r\nSIGNS OF TRYING TO FORM AN EYE.  QUIKSCAT DATA FROM EARLIER SUGGEST\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF 50-55 KT AND...SINCE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ALSO\r\nSUPPORT 55 KT...THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nKUDOS GO TO THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS WHICH CORRECTLY FORECAST THE\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE STORM.  HOWEVER...SSTS ARE NOW DECREASING\r\nIN THE PATH OF THE STORM...WHICH COULD LIMIT ANY FUTURE GROWTH OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SSTS QUICKLY DROP AND VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...SO THIS COMBINATION SHOULD BEGIN A\r\nWEAKENING OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF THE STORM IS 040/16.  THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM IS CAUGHT\r\nBETWEEN A BUILDING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS AND\r\nINTERACTIONS WITH A MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD START THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS ABOUT AS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AS IT CAN BE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE.    \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 36.2N  52.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 38.1N  50.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 41.0N  46.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 44.2N  43.1W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 48.0N  38.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 57.0N  25.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":63,"Date":"2008-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  63\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BERTHA IS NOW A HURRICANE AGAIN.  THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AROUND\r\nA CONSOLIDATING EYEWALL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM SAB.  BERTHA\r\nSHOULDN'T BE A HURRICANE FOR TOO LONG AS IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER\r\nWATERS LESS THAN 70F BY THIS TIME TOMORROW.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE.  PHASE\r\nDIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A DAY OR SO...WITH THE\r\nPROCESS COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR.  \r\n \r\nBERTHA CONTINUES MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW AT ABOUT 19 KT. THERE\r\nIS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING. THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE OUT TO SEA IN A WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A\r\nHIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING GREATER INTERACTION THAN EARLIER WITH\r\nBERTHA AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM NORTH AMERICA... RESULTING IN\r\nA SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND AND LIES ON\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 37.6N  50.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 39.8N  48.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 42.9N  44.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 46.7N  40.6W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 51.5N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 61.0N  23.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":64,"Date":"2008-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  64\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nCONVECTION AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF BERTHA'S EYE HAS WEAKENED DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nUNCHANGED...SO BERTHA REMAINS A 65 KT HURRICANE.  BERTHA IS NOT \r\nEXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE MUCH LONGER AS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WITHIN THEN NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BERTHA \r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nBERTHA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED\r\nOF ABOUT 22 KT.  BERTHA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A NORTHEAST\r\nHEADING DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nNEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GFS...BUT IS AHEAD\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORECAST 34 KT WIND RADII WERE\r\nEXPANDED OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nWITH A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 39.5N  48.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 42.0N  46.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 45.4N  42.1W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 50.2N  37.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 55.4N  32.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 63.5N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":65,"Date":"2008-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  65\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA HAS REMARKABLY MAINTAINED ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH AN EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65\r\nKNOTS BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER...AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH LONGER\r\nBERTHA WILL KEEP ITS STRUCTURE BUT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL\r\nWATERS AND WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS\r\nTO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS.   \r\n\r\nBERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS.\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL BECOME ABSORBED IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS THE HURRICANE ACCELERATING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 41.2N  47.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 43.8N  44.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 48.0N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 53.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 58.0N  28.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":66,"Date":"2008-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  66\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA IS STILL A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOW WELL PAST 40\r\nDEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND OVER RATHER CHILLY SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT AROUND 0820Z PRODUCED\r\n25-KM-RESOLUTION RETRIEVED WIND SPEEDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 60 KT IN\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...AND THESE COULD CERTAINLY BE UNDERESTIMATES. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z REMAINED 65 KT...AND THAT IS THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY.  BERTHA'S LONG LIFE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nPROBABLY NEARING ITS END...HOWEVER...SINCE IT IS SO QUICKLY GAINING\r\nLATITUDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR BERTHA TO BE AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY\r\nA LARGER SYSTEM IN LESS THAN THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS RACING ALONG AT 035/22...AND THE FORWARD SPEED WILL\r\nPROBABLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nENTERS THE FULL-BLOWN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING WHEN STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE THIS WELL-DEFINED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS RIGHT ON\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 43.1N  45.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 45.9N  42.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 50.5N  37.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 55.7N  31.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 60.8N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":67,"Date":"2008-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  67\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nRELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS ALL THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 18Z SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING BERTHA AS A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 65 KT. \r\nBERTHA IS CROSSING THE 20 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM...HOWEVER...AND\r\nIT SEEMINGLY CANNOT HOLD ON TO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MUCH\r\nLONGER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS NOT\r\nCOMPLETE...BY 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM REACHES 17 CELSIUS\r\nWATERS...BUT AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS BASED\r\nON THE GFS GLOBAL MODEL.  DESPITE THE TRANSITION...THE WINDS WILL\r\nPROBABLY NOT FALL OFF VERY FAST...AND BERTHA WILL BE A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL IT IS\r\nABSORBED BY OR MERGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO DETECTABLE CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 035/22.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST...ALONG\r\nABOUT THE SAME HEADING...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 44.8N  43.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 47.9N  40.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 52.9N  34.3W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 58.0N  27.2W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 62.5N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":68,"Date":"2008-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  68\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BERTHA HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH THE CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC AND BEGINNING\r\nTO WARM. THE EYE THAT WAS VISIBLE SIX HOURS AGO IS GONE. DVORAK T\r\nNUMBERS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60\r\nKT. FORECAST TO BE OVER 11C WATERS IN ABOUT 18 HOURS...BERTHA\r\nSHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEYOND\r\nMIDDAY TOMORROW. DESPITE THE TRANSITION...THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY\r\nNOT FALL OFF VERY FAST...AND BERTHA WILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR TWO TO THREE DAYS UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY\r\nOR MERGES WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM CROSSING CANADA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/21...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nTIGHTLY-PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 45.7N  41.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 49.8N  37.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 55.0N  31.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 60.1N  24.8W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 64.0N  18.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":69,"Date":"2008-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  69\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF\r\nBERTHA STILL LOOKS SOMEWHAT SYMMETRIC...I.E. TROPICAL...AND A SHIP\r\nWITH CALL SIGN WDC6925 REPORTED 44 KT WINDS NOT FAR FROM THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH IS ALSO INDICATIVE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE.  PHASE\r\nSPACE ANALYSES FROM FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY USING THE GFS FORECAST\r\nFIELDS INDICATE THAT BERTHA WILL BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nVERY SOON...PROBABLY NOT LONG AFTER 1200 UTC TODAY.  THE FORECAST\r\nSHOWS BERTHA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT BECOMING ABSORBED BY 72 HOURS\r\nBUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR\r\nSOONER.  FOR NEXT DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER...THE POST-BERTHA CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REMAIN A FAIRLY POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS ACCELERATING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW AROUND 035/26. \r\nAN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES WITH THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH...UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH OR IS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER\r\nLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 48.5N  38.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 52.5N  34.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 58.0N  28.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 63.0N  21.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 67.0N  15.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":70,"Date":"2008-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  70\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nBERTHA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE WIND FIELD\r\nHAS BECOME EXTREMELY ASYMMETRIC AND THE CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING\r\nNEAR THE CENTER. THUS BERTHA IS BEING DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. SHIP ABCC4 AND QUIKSCAT SUGGEST THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN\r\nLINE WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 51.3N  35.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 55.2N  31.2W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 61.0N  24.3W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED\r\nWITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL ROTATION. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM\r\nA SKIDAWAY INSTITUTE OF OCEANOGRAPHY 50 METER TOWER A SHORT\r\nDISTANCE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHREE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS...EITHER FROM COASTAL RADAR OR\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED MUCH IN THE WAY\r\nOF STRONG WINDS YET...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 040/5.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nWEAK...WITH THE DEPRESSION SITTING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST\r\nOF THE BAHAMAS AND A WEAKER ONE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION WILL CONTINUE...VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS...\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH A GRADUAL ACCELERATION INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE NEXT\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH I'LL NOTE THAT\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE TRACKS THAT ESSENTIALLY STRADDLE THE\r\nCOASTLINE.  BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE\r\nORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE...IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT A\r\nPOSSIBLE LANDFALL LOCATION AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT SEEM CONDUCIVE TO RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF\r\nDRY AIR NEARBY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nCLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE MODEL SHIFOR...NONE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS\r\nFORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON SSTS THAT LOOK AT LEAST 1C COOLER\r\nTHAN WHAT THE COASTAL BUOYS ARE REPORTING RIGHT NOW...SO I'M GOING\r\nTO GO A LITTLE ABOVE THAT GUIDANCE AND SHOW JUST ENOUGH\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO MAKE THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND INTENSITIES REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 31.9N  79.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 32.4N  79.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 33.4N  78.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 34.4N  76.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 35.5N  75.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 38.0N  70.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE\r\nON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. NEVERTHERELESS...THE SYSTEM\r\nCOLD BECOME A 35-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK\r\nTHE DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS\r\nAND THIS MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER\r\nTHE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED UNTIL ABSORBED BY A SHORT WAVE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 32.4N  79.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 33.0N  78.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 34.0N  77.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 35.0N  76.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 36.5N  73.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 39.0N  69.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO ORGANIZE AND IS NEARING\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  RADAR VELOCITY DATA FROM CHARLESTON AND\r\nWILMINGTON SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE BECOMING BETTER-\r\nDEFINED AND INCREASING. IN ADDITION...SHIP PDNN REPORTED 30 KT TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 1200 UTC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nKEPT AT 30 KT IN THIS ADVISORY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1700 UTC TO\r\nDETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS. SURPRISINGLY...\r\nNEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE HWRF SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  WE'RE INCLINED TO THINK THAT SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nLIKELY GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...SO A SLOW INCREASE IN\r\nWINDS IS INDICATED...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/SHIFOR GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDATA FROM BUOY 41004 HAS BEEN HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE DEPRESSION...\r\nWHICH APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  BEST ESTIMATE\r\nOF INITIAL MOTION IS 050/6.  A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM IN THIS\r\nGENERAL DIRECTION AND AT A SIMILAR SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER... THE DEPRESSION WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN A STRONGER\r\nSTEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A\r\nDEEPENING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA\r\nCOASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE TO\r\nTHE CENTER REFORMATION...AND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 32.6N  78.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 33.3N  77.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 34.2N  76.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 35.1N  75.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 40.5N  68.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 58 KT AT 2500 FT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\nHOWEVER...SFMR DATA AT THAT SAME LOCATION SHOWED ONLY 35 KT AND\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN WEAKENING NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE VALUES AND IS SET TO 40 KT.\r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM\r\nGULF STREAM WATERS AND EXPERIENCES LIGHT SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nSHIFOR/SHIPS CONSENSUS. STRANGELY...THE GFDL/HWRF STILL REFUSE TO\r\nINTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS SYNOPTIC REASONING. A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM AT ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME HEADING AND SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE SYSTEM NEARLY\r\nPARALLEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nBETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEPENING MIDDLE-\r\nLATITUDE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODELS DO DIVERGE A\r\nLITTLE ON WHETHER THE STORM WILL BE TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH OR STAY MORE SEPARATE FROM THAT FEATURE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TAD FASTER AND A LITTLE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36 HR...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 33.0N  77.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 33.7N  77.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 34.7N  75.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 35.9N  73.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 38.0N  71.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 43.5N  64.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO INDICATION THAT\r\nCRISTOBAL HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING.  CURRENTLY THE STORM IS\r\nCONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED...WITH THE COLD TOPS LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF\r\nBANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 40 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AROUND 06Z. \r\nTHE MORE OBVIOUS ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DO FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE BEING LIGHT SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC\r\nFLOW ALOFT...AND WARM WATERS BELOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nPRIMARILY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  AT PRESENT THE WIND\r\nFIELD IS VERY ASYMMETRIC.  HOWEVER...IF THE FORECAST STRENGTHENING\r\nOCCURS...CRISTOBAL COULD WRAP SOME OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS AROUND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 045/5.  CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT ENTERS THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  ONLY THE NOGAPS AND GFNI TAKE CRISTOBAL CLOSE TO\r\nEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.   GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL WILL\r\nBECOME ABSORBED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH I'VE ELECTED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM AS A SEPARATE\r\nENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 33.4N  77.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 34.1N  76.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 35.2N  75.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 36.8N  73.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 39.0N  70.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 45.0N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CRISTOBAL REMAINED UNIMPRESSIVE-\r\nLOOKING OVERNIGHT.  THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER WITH THE PRIMARY BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WELL DISPLACED\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR\r\n40 KT.  SOME SFMR READINGS FROM THE AIRCRAFT GAVE HIGHER SURFACE\r\nWINDS BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE ERRONEOUS DUE TO INTERFERENCE.\r\nALTHOUGH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF DRY\r\nAIR...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EVIDENCE OF MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING SHUNTED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.   \r\n200 MB WIND FORECASTS FROM THE GFS SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODEL CONSENSUS.  WITHIN 2-3 DAYS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO LOSE STRENGTH DUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5.  CRISTOBAL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES\r\nPICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.  BY\r\n72-96 HOURS OR SOONER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 33.9N  77.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 34.7N  76.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 35.8N  74.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 37.5N  72.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 40.2N  69.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 47.0N  61.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n\r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT...WITH SFMR MEASURMENTS OF ABOUT 45 KT. SINCE\r\nTHEN...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGES SO THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. DRY AIR IN THE\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS HAS SEEMINGLY PREVENTED CRISTOBAL FROM\r\nDEVELOPING MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO...AND A LITTLE BIT OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AT THAT\r\nTIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...040/5. MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON AN ACCELERATING TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS\r\nCRISTOBAL BECOMES PICKED UP IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nTRACK.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO START TO BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND BE FULLY ABSORBED BY 3\r\nDAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 34.5N  76.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 35.2N  75.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 36.7N  73.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 38.9N  70.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 42.5N  65.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT\r\n5000 FT HAVE BEEN NO HIGHER THAN 46 KT RECENTLY...NORMALLY\r\nCORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE SFMR DID MEASURE\r\n46 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE LACK\r\nOF PERSISTENCE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO...WE'RE\r\nGOING TO USE A COMPROMISE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT. \r\nSOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM FIGHTS THE DRY AIR\r\nALOFT AND REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN BEFORE...BUT ABOVE MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AT 7 KT...A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN BEFORE.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE WITH AN INCREASING\r\nFORWARD DUE TO FASTER STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nHIGH TO THE EAST AND AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH. IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF SSTS BELOW 20C AND A LARGE\r\nINCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD FACILITATE AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION OF THE STORM.  THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL PROBABLY\r\nABSORB CRISTOBAL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THOUGH A FEW MODELS DO KEEP\r\nIT MORE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 34.7N  75.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 35.9N  74.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 37.9N  71.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 40.8N  68.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 44.0N  63.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 45 KT IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHIS PARTICULAR AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...WITH CRISTOBAL HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...EVEN WHEN THE CYCLONE COMPLETES AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AGAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER...BUT ON A SIMILAR\r\nHEADING...045/8.  CRISTOBAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH...WITH FURTHER ACCELERATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER\r\nWESTERLIES.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT CRISTOBAL WILL\r\nREMAIN A SEPARATE ENTITY A LITTLE BIT LONGER BEFORE BEING\r\nABSORBED BY A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 35.2N  75.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 36.5N  73.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 38.9N  70.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 41.9N  66.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 44.7N  61.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 46.0N  55.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED TEXT...\r\n \r\nTHIS EVENING'S RECONNAISSANCE SFMR DATA INDICATED 40 KT IN THE EAST\r\nQUADRANT AND 51 KT AT 850 MB.  ADDITIONALLY...THE SFMR RECORDED 59\r\nKT ON AN INBOUND LEG OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHIS ANOMALOUS WIND APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DUE TO A LARGE CLUSTER OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ASSOCIATED WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW\r\nBOUNDARY...THAT EARLIER DETACHED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SIDE.  SINCE THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHIS EVENT SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE HOLDING ON TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS...INCLUDING WHEN THE SYSTEM COMPLETES AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION AROUND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ITS SPEED OF ADVANCE\r\nIN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WITH\r\nFURTHER INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGHER-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLY FLOW.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS KEEP CRISTOBAL AS A SEPARATE\r\nENTITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE.  A FEW OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A WEAK\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE AND DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AROUND THE\r\nNORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH COULD HAPPEN. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 36.1N  73.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 37.2N  72.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 39.7N  69.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 42.5N  65.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 44.4N  61.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 45.0N  52.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG IN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STORM.  ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE\r\nSTORM...THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND A FALLING PRESSURE AND SOME\r\nEVIDENCE OF A CENTER REFORMATION TO THE SOUTH. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-55 KT...WHICH ISN'T\r\nTOO FAR FROM THE SFMR DATA COLLECTED BY THE PLANE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GULF\r\nSTREAM AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...CRISTOBAL IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM\r\nAND INTO A STRONGER SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WHICH SHOW THIS SYSTEM STAYING JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO TO CENTER\r\nREFORMATION BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 055/11.  A TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nWITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE\r\nTO THE EAST WITH TIME AS IT MOVES INTO MORE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE\r\nBIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT MORE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE STORM WON'T BE FULLY ABSORBED BY A TROUGH OVER NORTH\r\nAMERICA AND INSTEAD ROTATE AROUND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AT THE END OF THE PERIOD\r\nAND IS EXTENDED TO 96 HR IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 36.6N  72.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 37.9N  70.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 40.5N  67.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 43.3N  63.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 45.0N  59.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 45.0N  47.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 41.0N  40.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n\r\nA LARGE BALL OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nCENTER IS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CRISTOBAL COULD\r\nBE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS\r\nNORTH OF THE GULF STREAM TOMORROW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS.  PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUGGEST THAT A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD START TOMORROW\r\nAND BE COMPLETED BY WEDNESDAY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nEARLIER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON AN\r\nACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE STORM IS NOW FORECAST TO AVOID ANY TROUGHING OVER\r\nNORTH AMERICA AND INSTEAD RIDE ALONG THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN A COUPLE\r\nDAYS...A NEW TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nSTORM...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM\r\nTHE GFS BY 96 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST NO BAROCLINIC\r\nREINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR AND INSTEAD CRISTOBAL MAY DISSIPATE\r\nOVER THE COLD NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS IN ABOUT 120 HOURS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 37.1N  71.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 38.9N  68.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 41.7N  64.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 44.0N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 45.0N  55.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 42.5N  45.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 38.5N  40.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nCRISTOBAL APPEARS TO BE SUCCUMBING TO THE COOLER SSTS AS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.  GIVEN THE EXTREMELY COLD SSTS THAT CRISTOBAL WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FURTHER WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY.  THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAM INDICATES THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nPRESENT TREND IN CONVECTION CONTINUES...CRISTOBAL COULD BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRIOR TO ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  \r\nREGARDLESS...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT\r\nTHIS TIME DUE TO LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING. \r\n \r\nCRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/14.\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN EASTWARD AT\r\nDAY TWO AS CRISTOBAL MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE A RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE DIVERGES DUE TO DIFFERING\r\nFORECASTS OF A TROUGH...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT...WHICH\r\nAMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.  CONSIDERING THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 AND 4. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 37.7N  69.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 39.8N  67.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 42.5N  62.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 44.0N  57.9W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 44.0N  52.8W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 41.0N  44.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 37.5N  41.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED PEAK WINDS AROUND 50 KT.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  CRISTOBAL'S FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH\r\nCOOLER SSTS AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM FLORIDA STATE\r\nUNIVERSITY INDICATE CRISTOBAL WILL TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER....SINCE THERE WILL BE\r\nLIMITED BAROCLINIC FORCING...WEAKENING APPEARS LIKELY. \r\n \r\nCRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/18.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN EASTWARD BETWEEN\r\n24-48 HOURS...THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AT DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MERGES\r\nWITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES QUITE A BIT AT DAY 3.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 39.1N  68.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 41.0N  65.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 43.4N  60.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 44.0N  55.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 43.3N  50.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 40.0N  43.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nA 1013 SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A BANDED EYE STRUCTURE WITH\r\nCRISTOBAL...THOUGH IT ALSO INDICATED THE SURFACE CENTER WAS ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BUOY 44011 ALSO SUGGESTS\r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.\r\nHOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE\r\nWINDS ARE INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 55 KT. THIS SHOULD BE THE\r\nLAST HURRAH FOR CRISTOBAL AS THE CYCLONE HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM INTO COOLER WATERS. A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL MODELS AND IS INDICATED BELOW. STEADY WEAKENING AS\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING\r\nENVIRONMENT AND NO BAROCLINIC FORCING.\r\n \r\nCRISTOBAL IS REALLY START TO MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n050/22.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST TODAY AND THEN EAST TOMORROW AS IT ROUNDS THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING\r\nMIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD EITHER DISSIPATE\r\nAROUND 4 DAYS OR BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 40.9N  65.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 42.9N  62.6W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 44.5N  57.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 44.0N  51.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 42.5N  46.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 39.0N  41.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nCRISTOBAL IS RAPIDLY BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nWINDS ARE DECREASED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY AND SHOULD DIMINISH\r\nAS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVERNIGHT. A STEADY DECREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS SHOWN BY ALL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD. STEADY WEAKENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nALSO FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AND NO\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING.\r\n \r\nCRISTOBAL HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT\r\nABOUT 24 KT.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nREMNANT OF CRISTOBAL ARE EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST TOMORROW\r\nAS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHEAST DUE TO AN APPROACHING MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD EITHER OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD\r\nFRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nCANADIAN BUOY 44137 WAS VERY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE WIND RADII.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 42.2N  62.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 44.0N  58.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 45.0N  53.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 44.0N  48.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nWHILE THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTOBAL HAS DEGRADED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP REPORTS\r\nINDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF AT LEAST 40-45 KT.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  NOW THAT THE EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDISSIPATED...WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME.  CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE THERE WILL NOT BE ANY SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC\r\nFORCING...THE EXTRATROPICAL CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND\r\nEVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nCRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING AT\r\nAN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 30 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS...SAVE THE UKMET...\r\nSUGGEST A DECREASE IN FOREWARD SPEED BUT THEY DID NOT ADVERTISE THE\r\nCURRENT ACCELERATION.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nFASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF\r\nRESPECT FOR THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 44.0N  59.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 45.1N  54.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 45.0N  49.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 43.3N  44.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032008\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS\r\nDISSIPATED AND CRISTOBAL NO LONGER HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS USING\r\nGLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT ALSO SUGGEST THAT CRISTOBAL HAS TRANSITIONED\r\nINTO AN ASYMMETRIC COLD CORE LOW...I.E. AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nWITH THAT...CRISTOBAL IS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CRISTOBAL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nTHE DEGRADATION OF THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE SUGGEST CRISTOBAL HAS\r\nWEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  SINCE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE A LACK OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO PRIOR TO CRISTOBAL MERGING\r\nWITH OR BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 44.7N  55.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 45.3N  51.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 44.4N  44.8W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 42.6N  38.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-20 15:45:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1145 AM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nWE HAVE BEEN CLOSELY MONITORING THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE AS IT HAS\r\nCROSSED THE CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...WITH SEVERAL\r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS SEARCHING FOR A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  NOT UNTIL THIS MORNING DID THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DETECT SUCH A CIRCULATION.  THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING MORE\r\nTHAN ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REQUISITE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED.  THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING\r\nWINDS OF 35-40 KT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS MORNING\r\nTHE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS AS STRONG AS 42 KT...ALONG\r\nWITH WINDS OF 50 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL.  IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY\r\n42057...SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...MEASURED\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE FOR ABOUT FOUR HOURS THIS\r\nMORNING...AS STRONG AS 39 KT.  BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS IMMEDIATELY DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM WITH MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS OF 40 KT.  THIS IS CURRENTLY A SPRAWLING SYSTEM WITH 34-KT\r\nWINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH\r\nVERY RECENTLY CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A\r\nNARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA IN BETWEEN DOLLY AND\r\nCRISTOBAL.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT\r\nLAKES REGION.  AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF DOLLY IS LIKELY\r\nTO BECOME SLOWER WHEN IT IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE MODELS\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN AND THE\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THEN THE\r\nSPREAD IS GREATER ON DAYS 3-5...WITH SOME MODELS EVENTUALLY\r\nFORECASTING DOLLY TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE OTHERS HEAD\r\nINTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.  THEY ALSO DISAGREE GREATLY ON HOW LONG IT\r\nMIGHT TAKE FOR DOLLY TO MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.  THE MOST PRUDENT\r\nAPPROACH FOR NOW IS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE TWO INHIBITING FACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...WITH THE OBVIOUS ONE BEING INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASS OF\r\nYUCATAN TONIGHT.  ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST\r\nOF DOLLY IS IMPARTING SOME WIND SHEAR THAT IS PART OF THE REASON\r\nFOR SUCH AN ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN.  THAT LOW...HOWEVER...IS\r\nHEADED SOUTHWESTWARD AND OUT OF THE WAY...AND WHEN DOLLY REACHES\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO IT IS LIKELY TO FIND ITSELF BENEATH A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION OF A STRONG\r\nTROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL FORECAST\r\nOF A HURRICANE IN THAT AREA IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1545Z 18.4N  84.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.7N  86.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 21.1N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND OVER YUCATAN\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 22.2N  92.2W    45 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 24.5N  96.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  97.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 27.0N 100.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nDOLLY APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALTHOUGH DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT\r\nQUITE AS WELL-DEFINED AS IT WAS THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY EXPANDING...EVEN TO THE WEST...AS WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST WEST OF DOLLY IS HEADED\r\nRAPIDLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS WEAKENING. DOLLY IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...AS IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA\r\nEARLY TOMORROW. ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...\r\nHOWEVER...IT WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE AND OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT LEAST 28\r\nCELSIUS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...AND ASSUMING THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nINTACT AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER YUCATAN...\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.\r\nALL OF THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST THAT TO\r\nHAPPEN...AND ALL FORECAST DOLLY TO ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT LONG-RANGE\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nEVEN WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE\r\nDIFFICULT TO GAUGE...BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12.  THE MODELS\r\nFORECAST A SOMEWHAT FASTER FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LAGS A LITTLE BEHIND THE\r\nCONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD...GIVEN THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND\r\nTHAT THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION FROM THE MODEL FIELDS THAT DOLLY\r\nSHOULD ACCELERATE MUCH.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE GULF COAST\r\nIS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER DOLLY\r\nREACHES THE GULF...SO THEY ALL FORECAST A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nMOTION STARTING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK MODEL SPREAD IS NOT\r\nALL THAT LARGE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS NOT MOVED\r\nMUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST PERHAPS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END.  IT\r\nIS FAR TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE DOLLY WILL MAKE FINAL\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.9N  85.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 20.1N  86.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 21.6N  89.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.9N  92.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 23.8N  94.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  96.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N  99.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 27.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY\r\nDOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW.  HOWEVER...DOLLY IS\r\nMAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS\r\nESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT.  SINCE DOLLY COULD\r\nREGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY\r\nHANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE\r\nWEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER\r\nEASTERLIES.  DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS.  BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE\r\nWEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT\r\nLINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM\r\nORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR.\r\nONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A\r\nLARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS.  THE\r\nQUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO\r\nTHE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 19.6N  85.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.9N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.3N  90.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 23.4N  92.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 24.3N  94.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 25.5N  97.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM CANCUN MEXICO INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REFORMED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...SYNOPTIC DATA CAST DOUBT ON\r\nTHE EXISTENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  SINCE THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO GENERATE VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS...AND IT\r\nAPPEARS LIKELY THAT THE SURFACE CENTER WILL SOON REAPPEAR...IT IS\r\nPRUDENT TO CONTINUE ISSUING ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS ON DOLLY.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT...IN LINE WITH THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK ANALYSES FROM TAFB.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS MOVING INTO THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE AND SEEMS TO BE INCREASING ITS SEPARATION DISTANCE\r\nFROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ALSO DIMINISHING ITS SHEARING\r\nINFLUENCE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF DOLLY AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...PRESAGES INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO SIMILAR\r\nTO THE DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE LACK OF A SURFACE CENTER AND THE REFORMATION...INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  MY BEST GUESS...305/13...IS NOT MUCH\r\nDIFFERENT THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR A SLOWING OF\r\nFORWARD SPEED BY 48 HOURS...THEREAFTER...THE KEY PLAYER IN THE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN FOR DOLLY IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT STRENGTHS AND\r\nCONFIGURATIONS OF THIS RIDGE AROUND 72 HOURS AND DIFFERENT\r\nLATITUDES OF LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST. \r\nALTHOUGH ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS TIME...INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF DOLLY.\r\n\r\nANOTHER NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 21.3N  87.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.6N  89.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 23.6N  92.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 24.4N  94.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.0N  95.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 26.5N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE DOUBT NOW THAT DOLLY HAS A CLOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY CONFIRMED THE\r\nEXISTENCE OF THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND\r\nFIELD...AND FOUND THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 45 KT.  THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS NOW STARTING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS.  A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...SO THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nENTIRE OVER-WATER FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM.  IN ABOUT 18-24\r\nHOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 29\r\nCELSIUS...AND A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AN AREA\r\nWITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER RESERVOIR OF WARM WATER BENEATH THE SURFACE. \r\nAS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS...STRENGTHENING APPEARS\r\nLIKELY...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nFORECAST...SINCE IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR A TRUE\r\nINNER CORE TO DEVELOP.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nHIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFDL\r\nSOLUTION...IN CALLING FOR A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SINCE THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL\r\nARE UNCERTAIN...THE FORECAST WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS ONLY\r\nRESULTS FROM THE 72-HOUR POINT BEING INLAND...AND A STRENGTHENING\r\nTREND IS FORECAST UP TO THE TIME OF FINAL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nDOLLY IS STILL MOVING RATHER QUICKLY...300/16...TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...RESULTING IN TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS THE CYCLONE PROCEEDS INTO THE\r\nWESTERN GULF.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH REMAINS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nTHERE ARE VERY RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF\r\nLANDFALL IMPLIED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES FOR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 22.1N  89.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  91.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 24.2N  93.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 25.1N  95.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 25.9N  96.4W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.5N  98.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 27.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF DOLLY APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING VERY GRADUAL\r\nCHANGES.  THE OUTERMOST CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING\r\nTODAY...WHILE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOWLY ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW MUCH\r\nSMALLER...AS DETERMINED FROM STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER\r\nDATA THAT RECENTLY INDICATED A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 45 KT ABOUT\r\n45 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DOLLY IS HEADED TOWARD A RELATIVE\r\nMAXIMUM IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...AND IT IS BENEATH A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT COVERS NEARLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  IT SEEMS TO BE TAKING A WHILE...HOWEVER...FOR AN INNER\r\nCORE TO BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE...SO IT IS RATHER UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH\r\nDOLLY WILL TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ITS ENVIRONMENT.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY\r\nMODELS FORECAST AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL FINAL\r\nLANDFALL...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST ABOUT 65 KT IN 48 HOURS...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 75-80 KT.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS SO CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAGAIN LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER GFDL SOLUTION.  ANOTHER COMPLICATION\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT KNOWING EXACTLY HOW FAST DOLLY\r\nWILL REACH THE COAST.  IF IT MAKES LANDFALL SOONER THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK INDICATES...IT MIGHT RUN OUT OF TIME TO REACH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY.  BUT IF THE OPPOSITE\r\nOCCURS...DOLLY WOULD HAVE A LITTLE MORE TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS.\r\n\r\nDOLLY CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS 300/16.  WHILE IT IS A LITTLE UNNERVING TO OBSERVE THIS FAST\r\nMOTION AND FORECAST THE CENTER OF DOLLY TO TAKE A COUPLE OF DAYS TO\r\nREACH THE COAST...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED WILL BE ABOUT HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE BY TOMORROW\r\nNIGHT.  THE MODELS AGREE SURPRISINGLY WELL ON THE SLOW-DOWN...SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...IS RIGHT\r\nIN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE MODELS DO NOT GO INLAND IN\r\nEXACTLY THE SAME LOCATIONS...HOWEVER.  THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST\r\nDOLLY TO CROSS THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF TRACKS GO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE\r\nAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NWS HURRICANE MODELS...THE GFDL AND HWRF. \r\nTHIS NEW TRACK IS NOT MEANINGFULLY DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...EXCEPT TO BE A LITTLE FASTER.  IT IS AGAIN IMPORTANT TO\r\nEMPHASIZE THAT...WITH RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL LOCATION IMPLIED\r\nBY THE OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n\r\nWARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH AREAS LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 23.1N  91.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  93.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 24.9N  94.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 25.8N  96.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 26.4N  97.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 27.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nDOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE THIS\r\nEVENING...AND NOW SHOWS EVIDENCE OF WRAPPING A BAND IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AGAINST THE EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS BEEN DECREASING. \r\nDATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER IS SOUTH OF THE APPARENT INFRARED CENTER.   DOLLY IS ALSO\r\nMOVING OVER A WARM GULF EDDY.  GIVEN THESE CHANGES...STRENGTHENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT YET IDEAL FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT...WITH THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF\r\nDOLLY...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO BECOME\r\nBETTER CONNECTED JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...DOLLY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A COLD EDDY IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS...WHEN\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE A BIT SLOWER THAN IT IS\r\nNOW...AND THIS ENCOUNTER COULD PROVIDE A DAMPER ON THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION RATE IN THE LAST HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE\r\nBOTTOM LINE OF ALL THIS IS THAT DOLLY VERY LIKELY WILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE...BUT THE ODDS ARE AGAINST IT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/15.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY\r\nDID A NICE JOB IN FORECASTING THE INCREASE IN SPEED TODAY...AND ARE\r\nIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION WILL SLOW\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF DOLLY\r\nWEAKENS ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER EAST TEXAS IS FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY AS A PAIR OF\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE A BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH\r\nTHE GFS TO THE SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 23.1N  92.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 23.9N  94.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 24.8N  95.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 25.6N  96.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 26.2N  98.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 26.5N 101.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED A LITTLE...TO 997 MB.  THE SFMR ON BOARD\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS NEAR 60 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nBUT THESE READINGS WERE IN AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH\r\nPROBABLY CAUSED SPIKES IN THE VELOCITY VALUES.  ASSUMING THAT THESE\r\nWERE OVERESTIMATES BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER\r\nPRESSURE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER...50 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE IS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE\r\nOF DOLLY AND POURING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER\r\nOUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM BY\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE CENTER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT\r\nNOT FAR FROM THE GFDL/HWRF PREDICTIONS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nONCE DOLLY ESTABLISHES AN INNER CORE...I.E. AN EYEWALL-LIKE\r\nSTRUCTURE...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FAIRLY RAPID IN\r\nCOMPARISON TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THUS FAR.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT DOLLY WOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTH OF DUE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...OR 280/13.  \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A COUPLE OF\r\nSHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY\r\nREGION ARE FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY THE PORTION OF THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AS A RESULT...THE TRACK\r\nOF DOLLY IS LIKELY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL\r\nDECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFDL/HWRF TRACKS.  AGAIN IT SHOULD BE\r\nEMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 23.3N  93.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 24.1N  95.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 25.0N  96.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 25.7N  97.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  99.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 26.0N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS\r\nGRADUALLY INTENSIFYING. THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE REPORTED AN\r\nISOLATED PEAK OF 65 KNOTS...A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND AN\r\nOPEN EYEWALL OF 20 NMI IN DIAMETER. SSMI DATA SHOWS THE EARLY\r\nSTAGES OF A CONVECTING RING AROUND THE CENTER.  CONVECTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH A LITTLE\r\nBETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW.  BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60\r\nKNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE OVER DOLLY.\r\nTHIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN COMBINATION WITH WARM WATERS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN STRENGTHENING. BOTH GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\nHAVE GONE UP AND DOWN WITH EACH RUN...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS\r\nUPWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 80 KNOTS AT\r\nLANDFALL...5 KNOTS HIGHER THAN INDICATED BY ALL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nINDICATED UNTIL LANDFALL ON WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...A RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF DOLLY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN\r\nMORE TO WEST...BUT VERY SLOWLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR THE\r\nMEXICO/US BORDER ON WEDNESDAY. IT SHOULD BE RE-EMPHASIZED\r\nTHAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT FOCUS ON\r\nTHE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DOLLY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON BROWNSVILLE RADAR. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 24.0N  94.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 24.8N  95.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 26.0N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolly","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nDOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM\r\nBROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN\r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75\r\nKNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY\r\nAPPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA\r\nJUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW\r\nSHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.\r\n \r\nDOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A\r\nSMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY\r\nSHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON\r\nWEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nWILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY\r\nSHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nBRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE\r\nRE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST\r\nNOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY\r\nRAINS IN THE AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 24.6N  95.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 25.3N  96.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 26.0N  97.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolly","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD BEEN FALLING AT A LITTLE OVER 1 MB/HR\r\nEARLIER THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE LEVELED OFF. MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR ON THE NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT WERE 70 KT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED ON\r\nTHIS BASIS. DOLLY HAS SPENT THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO TRAVERSING A\r\nCOOL GULF RING...AND THIS ENCOUNTER MAY BE SLOWING THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE'S OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST BY\r\nA NARROW UPPER LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nASYMMETRIC...FAVORING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THE RADAR\r\nPRESENTATION HAS NOT IMPROVED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THESE OBSERVATIONS LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT ONLY MODEST\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...\r\nASSUMING...OF COURSE...THAT DOLLY DOES NOT REMAIN OVER WATER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY LONGER THAN EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS\r\nTHE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nSLOWING DURING THE DAY...AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND WEAKENS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MODEL GUIDANCE...CONTINUES TO\r\nSLOW THE FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...TO 5 KT OR LESS\r\nIN THE CASE OF THE GFS.  THE MODELS HAVE BEEN QUITE GOOD WITH THE\r\nVARIATIONS IN SPEED WITH THIS STORM SO FAR...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. \r\nAFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nSPEED TO THE SOUTH OF A SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n\r\nSHOULD DOLLY SLOW AS MUCH AS THE GFS IS FORECASTING...THE CURRENT\r\nRAINFALL ESTIMATES...OF UP TO 15 INCHES IN SPOTS...WILL LIKELY BE\r\nLOW.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 25.1N  96.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 25.7N  97.0W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 26.1N  98.3W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.3N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolly","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB...A RATHER SIGNIFICANT\r\nDECREASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE SFMR...\r\nDROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASUREMENTS UP TO NOW HAVE\r\nYIELDED 70 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...I HAVE TOO MUCH RESPECT\r\nFOR THIS ABRUPT FALL IN PRESSURE TO NOT SHOW ANY INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 75 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR FROM BROWNSVILLE SHOWS A\r\nBANDING-TYPE EYE THAT IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFF ALONG WITH AN INCREASE\r\nIN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nIS FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED.  THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR DOLLY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE HURRICANE COULD BE NEAR CATEGORY 2\r\nINTENSITY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 310/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TODAY BUT\r\nREMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...WITH A SLIGHT\r\nADDITIONAL DECELERATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME\r\nAS BEFORE.  THIS IS RIGHT ON TOP OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE\r\nARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE\r\nRAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 25.6N  96.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 26.0N  97.4W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 26.3N  98.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 26.4N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolly","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nDOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB\r\nWITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE\r\nNWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109\r\nKNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS\r\nIMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON\r\nBOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES.   INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO\r\n85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nRADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A\r\nDEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nSHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n \r\nSHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE\r\nARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE\r\nRAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 26.0N  97.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.5N  97.8W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.0N  99.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 27.0N 101.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolly","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF DOLLY MADE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN PADRE ISLAND EARLIER\r\nTODAY AS A BORDERLINE CATEGORY ONE TO CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT LANDFALL\r\nREPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 967 MB AND WINDS WERE\r\nESTIMATED BETWEEN 80 AND 85 KNOTS.  THE EYE IS NOW PARTIALLY INLAND\r\nOVER FAR SOUTH TEXAS AND BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY\r\nINTERACTING WITH LAND...A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS BEGUN. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ESTIMATED A 75 KNOTS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS DOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSELY THE INLAND DECAY SHIPS MODEL. \r\n\r\nDOLLY BEGAN TO MOVE ON A MORE STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 7\r\nKNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS NOW LOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nDOLLY IS A LARGE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM AND CAN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY\r\nHEAVY RAINS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 26.6N  97.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 27.0N  98.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 27.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 28.0N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE BROWNSVILLE RADAR ALTHOUGH\r\nIT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE RADAR IS\r\nSHOWING SOME INBOUND VELOCITIES OF UP TO 78 KT OR SO AT ABOUT 2900\r\nFT. THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO MINIMAL HURRICANE FORCE AT\r\nTHE SURFACE OVER WATER...BUT NOT OVER LAND...AND DOLLY IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS BASIS. CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WITH DOLLY\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIDING\r\nEASTWARD A LITTLE BIT...TURNING DOLLY BACK TO A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nHEADING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nEVEN AS THE WINDS SUBSIDE...DOLLY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY\r\nRAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREATS WILL CONTINUE\r\nFOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 26.5N  98.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 26.8N  99.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 27.6N 100.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 28.2N 103.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DOLLY IS SLOWLY WOBBLING ALONG...WELL INLAND OVER DEEP\r\nSOUTH TEXAS...AT ABOUT 295/6.  THE EYE IS ALMOST GONE FROM RADAR\r\nIMAGERY...BUT THE SURROUNDING RAIN SHIELD IS STILL QUITE\r\nSOLID...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE IT EXTENDS\r\nALL THE WAY DOWN ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND EASTWARD BACK TO THE\r\nCOAST.  IN ADDITION...A FEW POTENT OUTER RAIN BANDS PERSIST\r\nNEAR AND JUST OFF THE COAST.  WSR-88D VELOCITIES ADJUSTED FOR\r\nALTITUDE SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT ALONG THE\r\nCOASTLINE DUE EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nTO 50 KT...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN\r\nEFFECT.  AS DOLLY PROCEEDS INLAND TODAY...WINDS WILL DIMINISH ALONG\r\nTHE COAST...AND THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS\r\nDOLLY IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS MOTION\r\nWILL TAKE THE CYCLONE FARTHER INLAND AND OVER INCREASINGLY RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN...SO DOLLY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS...AND THE CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST FOR MORE THAN\r\n36-48 HOURS.  DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING...DOLLY WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO DUMP VERY HEAVY RAINS FOR MANY MORE HOURS...SO A SIGNIFICANT\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR INLAND FLOODING CONTINUES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 26.9N  98.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 27.3N  99.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 27.9N 101.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 28.4N 104.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2008\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT DOLLY STILL HAS A LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE MOST\r\nPROMINENT CONVECTION IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS.  THERE ARE NUMEROUS\r\nOBSERVATIONS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 48 KNOTS EARLIER THISD MORNING. AS\r\nDOLLY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...IT IS EXPECTED TO TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD\r\nBE NO MORE THAN A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  DESPITE WEAKENING...\r\nDOLLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AND SIGNIFICANT  \r\nINLAND FLOODING.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 27.5N  99.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 28.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 28.5N 103.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolly","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2008\r\n \r\nDOLLY HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SQUALLS. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nWELL INLAND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER\r\nON DOLLY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DOLLY CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...\r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT\r\n10 PM CDT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 28.2N 100.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 29.0N 102.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 29.5N 104.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n400 PM CDT SUN AUG 03 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nEXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF A CLUSTER OF SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION.  RECENT REPORTS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED\r\nENOUGH FOR THE LOW TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 36 KT AND A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING THE RIDGE TO BUILD\r\nEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS AND\r\nWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN THIS AREA...WITH THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET AIMING AT WESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AIMING AT TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN\r\n36-48 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ENCOUNTERING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WHICH HAS GIVEN THE SYSTEM A RAGGED\r\nAPPEARANCE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DIMINISH\r\nAND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL WITH 50-55 KT WINDS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST\r\nGFDL CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL... WHICH IS A SHARP CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  DUE TO\r\nTHIS LACK OF CONSISTENCY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET\r\nREFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nLOUISIANA AND TEXAS COAST ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 28.2N  88.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N  89.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.9N  93.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  96.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-08-03 22:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n600 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008\r\n \r\nWHEN THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CONVECTION TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER A SHORT TIME AGO...IT FOUND MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 54 KT AND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002 MB...A\r\nDROP OF 5 MB IN AN HOUR AND A HALF.  THESE DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE\r\nSEASON.\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EDOUARD IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY AT LANDFALL...WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BETWEEN THE GFDL\r\nAND SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2200Z 28.1N  88.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N  89.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 28.9N  93.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N  96.2W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 100.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET AT 45 KT BASED ON PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 54 KT AND A VISUAL ESTIMATE OF 55 KT PRIOR TO 00Z FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. SINCE THEN...CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nCENTER HAS LARGELY DIMINISHED...AND THE EARLIER INTENSIFICATION\r\nTREND HAS NO DOUBT STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING. NORTHERLY SHEAR IS\r\nSTILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME\r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...AND EDOUARD COULD FIND ITSELF IN A DIFLUENT UPPER\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES INTO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF.  THE GFDL...SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL\r\nMAKE EDOUARD A HURRICANE. THE LATTER THREE MODELS...HOWEVER...ARE\r\nHEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE RECENT STRENGTHENING TREND...A TREND\r\nWHICH IS NO LONGER OCCURRING. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLIES SLIGHTLY BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...BRINGING EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE\r\nWEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH LANDFALL AROUND THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.\r\nHOWEVER...BECAUSE EDOUARD IS MOVING AT A VERY OBLIQUE ANGLE TO THE\r\nCOASTLINE...SMALL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD RESULT IN\r\nLARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LANDFALL LOCATION. CONSEQUENTLY...AND AS\r\nILLUSTRATED BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...THE CHANCES\r\nOF EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ROUGHLY EQUAL FROM\r\nMORGAN CITY ALL THE WAY TO GALVESTON BAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CENTER OF A RELATIVELY NARROW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 28.1N  88.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 28.2N  89.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 28.6N  91.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 29.3N  94.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  96.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 31.0N 101.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008\r\n\r\nNORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAND...A FEW HOURS AGO...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF EDOUARD BECAME QUITE\r\nDISORGANIZED AS THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER BECAME DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF\r\nTHE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS PENETRATED THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE JUST BEFORE\r\n0600 UTC...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS UP TO 1006 MB.  IN FACT...BASED\r\nON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AROUND THAT TIME...IT WAS DUBIOUS AS TO\r\nWHETHER EDOUARD WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  RECENT SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nHOWEVER AND THE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAD FALLEN BACK TO 1002 MB.  I ASSUME THAT THE AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL SOON FIND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS CLOSE TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED\r\nYESTERDAY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS. \r\nGLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS OF THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER THE\r\nAREA INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ...SIMILAR\r\nTO WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES...EVEN IN THE 24 HOUR TIME FRAME...IT IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT EDOUARD COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE. \r\nTHEREFORE THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nNORTHWEST GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NOW 270/8.  NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. \r\nIT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL MOVE ON A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA\r\nOF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ON THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE TRAJECTORY OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE FASTER. \r\nAS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND TIME OF\r\nLANDFALL SHOWN BY THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 28.1N  90.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 28.4N  91.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 29.0N  93.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 29.7N  95.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 30.4N  98.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 31.5N 102.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 11Z...AND THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED\r\n45 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OUTBOUND FROM THAT FIX.  IT HAS BEEN AT LEAST\r\n12 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40\r\nKT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS...HOWEVER...\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH\r\nCONVECTION...ALBEIT POORLY ORGANIZED...IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL IN CALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nAT LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS LESS AGGRESSIVE. \r\nBASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST FORECAST ERROR\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...THERE IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT EDOUARD\r\nWILL BE A HURRICANE NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...AND THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING. IT IS EXPECTED THAT EDOUARD WILL BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN\r\nAREA OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 28.2N  90.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 28.4N  92.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.1N  94.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 29.7N  96.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008\r\n \r\nDATA THUS FAR FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD OF EDOUARD IS EXPANDING...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW\r\nIN THREE OF FOUR QUADRANTS...BUT THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM WINDS HAVN'T\r\nCHANGED MUCH.  THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1000 MB AND THE PEAK\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 46 KT.  STRUCTURALLY...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES\r\nTO GRADUALLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION...WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER\r\nBANDING AND A FEW SMALL AREAS OF NEW CONVECTION GOING OFF CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME EXPANSION OF THE\r\nOUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD\r\nIN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL TAKING EDOUARD TO 69 KT\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL...WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IN\r\nCALLING FOR EDOUARD TO BE VERY NEAR THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE\r\nTHRESHOLD.  IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE\r\nPRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A\r\nLOW-END HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6.  EDOUARD'S HEADING IS WOBBLING BETWEEN\r\nWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS EDOUARD MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  SOME OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE NOW IS SHOWING A BRIEF WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE...AND THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT RIGHTWARD BEND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nNEAR AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND HAVE JUST A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THAN BEFORE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 28.3N  91.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 28.6N  92.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 29.4N  95.0W    60 KT...JUST INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 30.5N  97.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 31.5N  99.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2008\r\n \r\nEDOUARD HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS A COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE DRY AND ENTRAINMENT HAS CONFINED\r\nTHE CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE WSR-88D DOPPLER AT LAKE CHARLES IS SHOWING WINDS\r\nOF 60-65 KT AT 10000 FT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nSOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OCCURRED BETWEEN 18Z-00Z...AND SINCE\r\nTHAT ENDED THERE HAS BEEN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 290/6.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  EDOUARD SHOULD MOVE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL LANDFALL AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION OVER\r\nTEXAS...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nIS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS\r\nCOAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE\r\nCENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHEAR...\r\nPOSSIBLE DRY AIR...AND RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION\r\nARGUE AGAINST RAPID STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR EDOUARD TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO CALL FOR LANDFALL AS A 55-60 KT TROPICAL STORM. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE STORM COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  IT'S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THERE\r\nIS VERY LITTLE PRACTICAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A VERY STRONG TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AND A LOW-END HURRICANE.  AFTER LANDFALL...EDOUARD SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 28.7N  92.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 29.1N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 30.0N  95.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 31.1N  97.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 32.0N  99.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008\r\n \r\nWSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM\r\nOVERNIGHT.  SPIRAL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER\r\nDEFINED...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL. \r\nPEAK DOPPLER VELOCITIES WERE NEAR 65 KT AT ELEVATIONS OF 3000-5000\r\nFT AND THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER SFMR RECORDED SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 53 AND 56 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN AN AREA OF VERY\r\nHEAVY RAIN.  ADDITIONALLY...THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS WERE 68 KT OVER THE SAME AREA...CORRESPONDING TO\r\nA SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 54 KT.  THEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nNOW ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT.  THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL\r\nWATERS HAVE A VERY HIGH SKIN TEMPERATURE BUT DO NOT HAVE A\r\nPARTICULARLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS INCREASING SO DYNAMICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  EDOUARD MIGHT STILL BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING\r\nTHE COAST BUT...AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A LOW-END\r\nHURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nRATHER CLOSELY.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES SHOW THAT THE MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER AND\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND IS NOW 300/10.  THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW FOR EDOUARD IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST DURING AT LEAST THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INLAND WITHIN\r\nTHE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.  BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION WHICH IS\r\nA LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EARLIER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 29.3N  93.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.1N  95.1W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 31.0N  97.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 31.9N  99.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 32.8N 101.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008\r\n \r\nEDOUARD MADE LANDFALL AT 1200 UTC IN THE MCFADDIN NATIONAL WILDLIFE\r\nREFUGE ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS\r\nWITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW BEGINNING TO\r\nLOSE ORGANIZATION AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST ROUGHLY IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS BECOMING HARDER TO LOCATE IN WSR-88D DATA...BUT THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/13.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH\r\nPERHAPS A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATES IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 29.9N  94.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 30.6N  96.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 31.4N  98.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.4N 100.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Edouard","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2008\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF EDOUARD...AS DEPICTED BY SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nIMAGERY...HAS BEEN DEGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE WINDS\r\nHAVE FALLEN BELOW 35 KT...AND EDOUARD IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION\r\nWITH THIS ADVISORY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE\r\nPUSHES FARTHER INLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE UNTIL THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATES IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 30.2N  95.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 30.9N  96.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 32.0N  99.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM   CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION OF THE 72H POSITION TEXT \r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nIN THE MONA PASSAGE BECAME BETTER DEFINED...WITH 1500 FT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND ENOUGH WESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER TO\r\nJUSTIFY CALLING THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THESE\r\nWESTERLIES ONLY EXTEND ABOUT 45 N MI SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FAY...THE SIXTH OF\r\nTHE ATLANTIC SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  FAY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A\r\nWEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nOR FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR.  WHILE ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES THAT THIS WEAKNESS WILL CAUSE FAY TO TURN NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THIS\r\nIS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON JUST WHERE FAY WILL\r\nTRACK.  THE NAM CALLS FOR FAY TO PASS EAST OF THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA...WHILE THE HWRF CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN\r\nFLORIDA.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS FORECAST A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS FORECASTS FAY TO TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE WEST COAST OF\r\nFLORIDA.  COMPLICATING MATTERS IS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND\r\nINTERACTION CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AND REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CALL FOR FAY\r\nTO CROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF CUBA...THEN PASS\r\nNEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72-96 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND INTERNAL STRUCTURE.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO CROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA\r\nAND CUBA...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CENTER EMERGES FROM THE NORTH\r\nCOAST OF CUBA...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE\r\nSTORM WILL BE AT THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT...AND THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE\r\nTHAT FAY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT ANY DEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK THAT ALLOW FAY MORE\r\nTIME OVER WATER WOULD RESULT IN A STORM STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 18.5N  69.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 18.9N  71.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.4N  74.1W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  76.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  81.0W    40 KT...NORTH COAST OF CUBA\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 26.5N  82.0W    60 KT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008\r\n \r\nWE KNOW THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS SOMEWHERE OVER HISPANIOLA AND THE\r\nIMMEDIATE UNKNOWN IS HOW MUCH OF FAY WILL EMERGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN\r\nWATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOUR OR SO. BY LOOKING AT THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION...OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS AND THE STEADY WESTWARD MOTION...IT IS FAIR TO ASSUME\r\nTHAT FAY COULD SURVIVE THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nMOVE ...ALTHOUGH WEAKER...OVER THE GULF OF GONAVE SATURDAY MORNING.\r\nIF SO...A NEW PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BEGIN SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS LIGHT AND THE WATERS ARE VERY WARM SOUTH OF CUBA.  ONLY\r\nTHE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA WOULD IMPEDE\r\nSTRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...MAKING FAY\r\nA STRONG HURRICANE SOUTH OF CUBA AND EVEN A STRONGER ONE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AFTER CROSSING CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING BUT\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nSIMPLY BECAUSE FAY IS EXPECTED TO STAY LONGER OVER WATER IN THIS\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n \r\nBECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE CENTER IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION USING\r\nCONTINUITY AND THE MOTION OF THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS IS 275 DEGREES\r\nAT 12 KNOTS.  FAY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  BUT IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO ERODING THE RIDGE. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FORCE FAY TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE EXTREME\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ONE SHOULD MENTION HERE THAT IN\r\nGENERAL...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. BEFORE I\r\nAM COMMITTED TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST...I WOULD RATHER WAIT\r\nTO SEE IF GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT.\r\n \r\nIN SUMMARY...BOTH OFFICIAL FORECAST AND GUIDANCE SHOW AN\r\nINTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND INTO\r\nTHE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WE MUST PAY VERY CLOSE\r\nATTENTION TO THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 18.7N  70.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.8N  72.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  75.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  77.8W    50 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N  81.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 27.5N  83.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 31.0N  84.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH WE CANNOT DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY IS\r\nLOCATED...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST IT IS STILL INLAND...OVER\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL HISPANIOLA NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC AND HAITI.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE CIRCUMNAVIGATED THE ENTIRE\r\nISLAND OF HISPANIOLA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ENDURING SOME\r\nRATHER TURBULENT CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE STRONGEST\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WE APPRECIATE THE HARD\r\nWORK OF THE CREW.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT\r\nSUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT.  FAY REMAINS BENEATH A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RESULTING IN WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW\r\nALOFT...AND DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...THE\r\nSTORM HAS A RELATIVE WELL-ORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 270/12 TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING...DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK ARE NOT SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FAY TO TURN TO THE RIGHT INTO THE\r\nWEAKNESS...EVENTUALLY LEADING TO A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN\r\n3-5 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THERE ARE RELIABLE MODELS ON BOTH\r\nSIDES OF THAT TRACK.  THE GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS HEAD UP THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET ARE FARTHER WEST OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IN THE\r\nSHORTER TERM...THE MODELS ALSO DO NOT AGREE ON WHETHER THE CENTER\r\nOF FAY WILL PASS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA BEFORE\r\nTURNING NORTHWESTWARD.  THESE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AGAIN HIGHLIGHT\r\nTHE PITFALLS OF FOCUSING TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY AT THE LONGER RANGES.\r\n\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTING IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT...BUT IN THIS CASE IS MADE\r\nEVEN MORE COMPLICATED BY THE LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH LAND DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEAN CONDITIONS ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...SO THE\r\nMORE TIME FAY SPENDS OVER WATER...THE STRONGER IT IS LIKELY TO\r\nBECOME...AND VICE VERSA.  DYNAMICAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nWEAK-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND FAY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF\r\nTHE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS A MODEST BUT TEMPORARY\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR IN ROUGHLY 48 HOURS.  WHEN FAY IS OVER\r\nWATER...THOSE WATERS WILL BE VERY WARM.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIMPLIES AMPLE AMOUNT OF TIME OVER WATER...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST...IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL.  FAY COULD BE\r\nWEAKER THAN FORECAST IF ITS STAY OVER HISPANIOLA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nDISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION...OR IF IT MOVES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST\r\nAND SPENDS MORE TIME OVER CUBA.  A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND\r\nWEST...HOWEVER...COULD ALLOW FAY TO GET STRONGER THAN WHAT IS\r\nSHOWN BELOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 18.7N  72.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  74.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N  76.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  78.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.8N  79.9W    65 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N  82.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 28.5N  83.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 32.0N  84.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF FAY IS NOW OVER\r\nWATER TO THE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI...WITH\r\nLITTLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS TIME.  WHILE\r\nTHE STORM PRODUCED A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST DURING THE NIGHT OVER\r\nTHE WATER SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS\r\nBURST WAS AT THE FAR END OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND NOT DIRECTLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT\r\nBASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE FAY AROUND 18Z TO\r\nPROVIDE BETTER DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/13.  FAY REMAINS ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECASTING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO OR FLORIDA THAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 36 HR.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN AND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN.  THE\r\nECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NAM ARE FARTHEST TO THE EAST...CALLING FOR\r\nFAY TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE\r\nGFDL IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST.  THE GFS...HWRF...FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST\r\nCENTRAL CUBA AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF\r\nFLORIDA.  THE UKMET AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST...FORECASTING FAY TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE NOGAPS IS THE FARTHEST\r\nWEST...FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. \r\nOVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THUS...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAFTER 48 HR.  EVERYONE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME\r\nCHANCES OF EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC\r\nWIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT.\r\n\r\nWHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL\r\nBE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON\r\nTHE STORM STRUCTURE.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES WELL\r\nORGANIZED OVER WATER.  ON THE OTHER HAND IT MIGHT NOT STRENGTHEN\r\nMUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 19.0N  73.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N  75.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  77.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.1N  79.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 22.7N  80.6W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 26.0N  82.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 32.5N  83.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT FAY\r\nIS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN BELIEVED EARLIER...WITH THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY NEAR 35 KT AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE AT 1006 MB.  THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE WAS RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT A NEW CLUSTER\r\nOF STRONG CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. \r\nTHE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  FAY REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECASTING A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA\r\nTHAT SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH\r\nAFTER 36 HR.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON WHEN\r\nAND HOW SHARPLY FAY WILL TURN.  THE ECMWF AND NAM MODELS REMAIN ON\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAVE BEEN JOINED BY\r\nTHE GFDL WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THESE\r\nMODELS CALL FOR A SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA LANDFALL.  THE GFS...HWRF...\r\nGFDN...FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nFORECAST FAY TO CROSS WEST CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS HAVE\r\nBOTH SHIFTED EAST OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT ARE STILL ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CALLING FOR A MOTION TOWARD\r\nTHE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nIS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AFTER THE 48 HR POINT.  EVERYONE IN\r\nTHE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY...AS MOST\r\nLOCATIONS THERE HAVE ABOUT THE SAME CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ACCORDING TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY\r\nPRODUCT.\r\n \r\nWHEN FAY IS OVER WATER...IT APPEARS THAT ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL\r\nBE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE CONTROLLED BY LAND INTERACTION AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON\r\nTHE STORM STRUCTURE.  ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  FAY COULD STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IF IT BECOMES\r\nWELL ORGANIZED OVER WATER...SUCH AS WHILE PASSING SOUTH OF CUBA OR\r\nOVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...IT MIGHT NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN MUCH AT ALL IF LAND INTERACTION PREVENTS ORGANIZATION. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FAY TO WEAKEN OVER THE UNITED\r\nSTATES AFTER LANDFALL.  SHOULD IT REMAIN OVER WATER AFTER 72\r\nHR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 19.3N  75.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N  77.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.9N  79.1W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 23.6N  81.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 33.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IN\r\nFAY AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH\r\nTHE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IN\r\nFACT...GUANTANAMO CUBA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 38\r\nKNOTS AND GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AFTER BEING DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH\r\nMOUNTAINS OF HISPANIOLA. FAY HAS A LARGE ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF\r\nCONVECTION AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SURROUNDING\r\nSURFACE PRESSURES HAVE FALLEN ON THE ORDER OF 5 MB SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY...AND IN GENERAL THIS IS AN INDICATION OF DEVELOPMENT.\r\nALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE RATE OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION DEPENDS ON HOW CLOSE TO LAND THE CENTER MOVES...AND\r\nIF FAY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. AT THIS TIME...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING. IF FAY REMAINS\r\nOVER WATER IT COULD REACH THE COAST OF CENTRAL CUBA AS\r\nA HURRICANE...BUT THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. IT IS INTERESTING TO\r\nNOTE THAT THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE NO LONGER INDICATING AN\r\nAGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION IN THE MOST RECENT RUN.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM CUBAN RADARS\r\nINDICATE THAT FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS. FAY IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SO A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. ON THIS\r\nTRACK...FAY SHOULD BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE\r\nEXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO VERY NEAR OR OVER THE WEST FLORIDA\r\nCOAST. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE SPREAD BECOMES MUCH LARGER BEYOND 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS\r\nBRINGING FAY OVER FLORIDA AND OTHERS KEEPING IT OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.    \r\n \r\nON THIS TRACK...WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 19.4N  76.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  78.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  80.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 27.8N  82.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 31.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF FAY IS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA TO BE ACCESSIBLE\r\nTO THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SO THERE ARE NO DIRECT\r\nMEASUREMENTS OF CENTRAL PRESSURE OR PRECISE POSITIONING OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER.  HOWEVER...CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY AND THE AVAILABLE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT FAY IS BEGINNING ITS TURN TO THE\r\nRIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...ALTHOUGH THE CONFIDENCE HAS\r\nDECREASED DUE TO A SPREADING OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE VERY DIFFERENT EVOLUTIONS OF THE STEERING FLOW\r\nOVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND AN MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE DIPPING INTO THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF...WHICH TURNS FAY NORTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA\r\nBEFORE STALLING IT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO\r\nSHOW A PATH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET...TURN FAY NORTHWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO TO THE EAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW FORECAST TO\r\nBE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nLATTER SCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER\r\nCORE IS IMPROVING...ALTHOUGH RECONNAISSANCE DROPSONDES NEAR THE\r\nCENTER SUGGEST THAT THE PRESSURE HAS NOT YET CHANGED MUCH.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA.  IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR\r\nOR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  FAY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nGULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT\r\nEXPLICITLY SHOW IT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  77.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  78.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N  80.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 23.7N  81.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 25.4N  82.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 32.0N  82.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008\r\n \r\nFAY APPEARS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTION IN BANDS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND ONLY\r\nA SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND A\r\nSYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM CABO CRUZ CUBA REPORTED 45 KT.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN 6 HR\r\nAGO.  FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING DUE TO A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR...BUT THERE\r\nREMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH OF\r\nA TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL FORECAST A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TURN TAKING FAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC.  THE HWRF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR A\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION OVER OR JUST WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THEN...THE NOGPAS CALLS FOR A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. \r\nOVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FOR THE FIRST\r\n36-48 HR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE\r\nBECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nTO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nMODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48\r\nHR...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER...FORECASTS\r\nA BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA.  FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN\r\nFORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS...OR IF IT TRACKS MORE\r\nTO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 20.5N  78.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 21.3N  80.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.9N  81.4W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N  82.0W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 26.2N  82.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 29.5N  82.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 32.5N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 36.0N  81.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008\r\n \r\nFAY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANZIED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nIMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASED CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nARE SINGS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE IN\r\nTHE WAY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OR STRONG WINDS.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE\r\nWINDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n45 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF FAY SURGED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nDAY...AT ONE TIME MOVING BETWEEN 18-20 KT.  THAT MOTION APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN 300/13.  FAY IS APPROACHING A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A\r\nLOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS DEVELOPING\r\nDUE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HR...\r\nBUT THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON\r\nHOW MUCH OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHARPER TURN WITH LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN\r\nFLORIDA...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING FAY CROSSING TO THE ATLANTIC THEN\r\nMOVING WESTWARD TO HIT FLORIDA AGAIN.  THE GFS AND GFDL HAVE\r\nSHIFTED WEST SINCE THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHILE THE UKMET HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  THESE MODELS HAVE JOINED THE HWRF IN\r\nCALLING FOR A TRACK NEAR OR JUST OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nPOSSIBLY DUE TO THE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL POSITION CAUSED BY THE\r\nMOTION SURGE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ABOUT 60 N MI TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  THE SHIPS MODEL NOW\r\nFORECASTS PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH\r\nPERHAPS A PERIOD OF LIGHTER SHEAR FROM 18-48 HR.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH WEST OF FAY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN...WITH\r\nNO CLEAR EVIDENCE AT THIS TIME OF WHICH IS CORRECT.  IT APPEARS THE\r\nSHEAR WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FAY TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS\r\nSHOWN IN THE GFDL MODEL...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION ALONG THOSE LINES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nHWRF CALLS FOR FAY TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A PEAK JUST\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SITUATION IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF HURRICANE CHARELY\r\nFROM AUGUST 2004...IN THAT A SMALL CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM\r\nCOULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE EVETUAL LANDFALL LOCATION.  THE\r\nNHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES PRODUCT SHOWS ABOUT AN EQUAL CHANCE OF\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE ENTIRE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 21.0N  80.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N  81.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 23.8N  82.8W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 25.3N  83.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  83.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  83.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 33.5N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 37.0N  82.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS NEAR 0000 UTC SHOWED LITTLE MOTION\r\nSINCE THE EARLIER FIXES.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND CUBAN RADAR\r\nDATA IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE\r\nMOMENT...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nSOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM EAST TO WEST.  STRONGEST CONVECTION IS\r\nOCCURRING JUST TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM EARLIER TODAY.  FAY IS LIKELY\r\nTO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  NOAA G-IV JET DATA SHOW MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHT FALLS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH.  SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL MODEL HAVE\r\nSHIFTED...ONCE AGAIN...TO THE EAST.  THERE HAVE OBVIOUSLY BEEN SOME\r\nRUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY PROBLEMS WITH OUR TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT THIS\r\nIS OFTEN THE CASE FOR WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MODEL INITIAL\r\nCONDITIONS.  I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WHICH REMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWE HAVE BEEN CARRYING 45 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY SINCE EARLIER\r\nTODAY ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENTLY OBSERVED FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.  HOWEVER IT IS BELIEVED THAT THESE\r\nWINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE STRONG CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER WHICH WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY\r\nEVEN BE CAUSING SOME UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE STORM.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nWILL DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WHILE FAY IS OVER WATER DURING THE\r\nEARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 48 HOURS OR SO...SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST GFDL AND HWRF MODEL PREDICTIONS.  IT SHOULD BE ADDED THAT\r\nTHERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST HOWEVER.\r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.  A BETTER\r\nWAY OF ASSESSING YOUR RISK IS TO MAKE USE OF THE WIND SPEED\r\nPROBABILITIES.  THESE DO NOT CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR GIVEN\r\nLOCATIONS WHEN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 21.4N  80.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 22.3N  81.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 23.8N  82.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 25.3N  82.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 27.0N  82.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 30.5N  82.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 34.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 37.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER\r\nCENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN\r\nRADAR IMAGERY.  WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10. \r\nASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER BECOMING ELONGATED...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE\r\nASYMMETRY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DISTORTION OF THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION IS LIKELY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OVER CUBA. \r\nALL TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FAY WILL MAINTAIN A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS UNTIL IT REACHES\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nRIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...BUT SOME\r\nADDITIONAL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE PERSISTS AND THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERTICALLY\r\nCONNECTED.  THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR.  GIVEN THAT...ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT HAS BEEN MADE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WITH THESE WINDS OCCURRING\r\nJUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS IMPEDING THE\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SOME\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nGIVEN THIS PATTERN...RAPID STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT THE\r\nSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FAY FROM\r\nREACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 22.5N  80.9W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N  81.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 25.1N  82.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 26.6N  82.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 28.2N  82.2W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 31.1N  82.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 33.0N  82.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF FAY HAS MOVED INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND RADAR DATA SHOW STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE STORM...BUT LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THIS ASYMMETRY IS LIKELY DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT...WITH\r\nRELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT.    BASED ON THIS AND\r\nSIMILAR DOPPLER RADAR WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n50 KT.  THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER IS 1003 MB.\r\n\r\nFAY HAS BEEN MOVING IN FITS AND STARTS FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HR.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11.  FAY IS\r\nENTERING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AND FLORIDA CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY FORECASTING FAY TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH FORECAST FAY TO\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AND STALL BY 120 HR...WHILE\r\nTHE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nFLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER NOTED\r\nTHAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nOPERATIONAL RUNS...SO THESE OUTLIERS ARE IGNORED FOR THE MOMENT. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THE NORTHWARD SCENARIO...LYING\r\nJUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA IN A LITTLE OVER 24 HR.\r\n\r\nFAY IS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24-48 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE...WILL LIKELY PREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS MAKING FAY A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  THUS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  AFTER LANDFALL...FAY SHOULD\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.  THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT CHANCE FAY\r\nMIGHT NOT REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IF\r\nIT MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL\r\nDEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN\r\nWHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 23.6N  81.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 24.6N  81.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 26.2N  82.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 27.8N  82.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 29.3N  81.8W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 33.6N  81.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 35.5N  82.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FAY HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS\r\nINCREASED AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS\r\nCONTRACTED TO ABOUT 30 N MI.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS FALLEN TO 998 MB.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET CAUSED THE WINDS\r\nTO INCREASE...AS AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN ABOUT 50 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A TCU\r\nWAS ISSUED NOTING LANDFALL WHEN THE WINDS AT KEY WEST WENT CALM AT\r\n3 PM.  LATER DATA SUGGESTS THIS WAS DUE TO A MESOSCALE FEATURE\r\nROTATING AROUND THE LARGER CENTER OF THE STORM...AND THE TRUE\r\nCENTER OF FAY IS OVER KEY WEST NOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/10.  FAY IS ENTERING A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA\r\nCAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  BEYOND 36-48 HR...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT\r\nOUT...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AHEAD OF A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN RESPONDING TO\r\nTHIS PATTERN.  THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INLAND\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND\r\nFORECASTS A NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH A\r\nSHARP TURN TO THE WEST AFTER 72 HR.  THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS A\r\nSIMILAR FORECAST.  THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR FAY TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AND\r\nMOTION BACK INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AFTER 72 HR.  FINALLY...THE GFDL\r\nAND THE HWRF CONTINUE FOR A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION WELL INLAND\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  GIVEN THE INCREASING SIGNAL FROM\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS THAT NEW RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BLOCK FAY'S\r\nPROGRESS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE EARLIER PART OF THE TRACK...WHICH\r\nCALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA IN ABOUT 18 HR FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST AND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWHILE FAY REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND IS BATTLING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THESE CONDITIONS\r\nARE NOT SEVERE ENOUGH TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING.  THUS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  WHILE\r\nNOT EXPLICITLY A FORECAST POINT...IT IS LIKELY THAT FAY WILL MAKE\r\nLANDFALL AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AFTER 24 HR...THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON WHETHER FAY IS OVER LAND...AS THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON FAY REMAINING OVER LAND AND THUS\r\nDISSIPATING.  IF FAY REGAINS THE ATLANTIC OR THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...SIMILAR TO CHARLEY IN 2004...SMALL\r\nDEVIATIONS FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD MAKE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN\r\nWHEN AND WHERE THE CENTER OF FAY MAKES LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 24.6N  81.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 25.8N  82.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 27.4N  81.9W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 28.8N  81.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 31.0N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 32.0N  82.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N  84.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008\r\n \r\nFAY'S ORGANIZATION HAS WAXED AND WANED THIS EVENING.  THE STORM\r\nBECAME QUITE DISORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE ON WSR-88D RADAR\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM KEY WEST AND MIAMI EARLIER THIS EVENING...AND THEN\r\nSHOWED INCREASED SPIRAL BANDING BUT NO CLOSED EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  \r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A FALL IN CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE BUT NO INCREASE IN FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS YET.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT ON\r\nTHE EAST SIDE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS AND\r\nTHIS ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO IMPARTING MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nFAY.  NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR FAY TO STRENGTHEN\r\nINTO A HURRICANE PRIOR TO CROSSING THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING.  OUR\r\nFORECAST FOR FAY'S WEAKENING OVER THE PENINSULA MORE OR LESS\r\nFOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL. \r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT AND RADAR FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION NEAR 360/8.  FAY IS\r\nMOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST.  SOME OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE MODELS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FOR FAY'S TREK\r\nACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.  AFTER 1-2 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE STEERING PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN AS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND BLOCKS THE\r\nFORWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS GREAT DIVERSITY\r\nIN THE OBJECTIVE TRACK FORECASTS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE\r\nPERIOD...AND THEREFORE LARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE\r\nFAY WILL EVENTUALLY GO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE HIGHLY SPREAD MODEL TRACKS.  THE FORECAST OF\r\nFAY'S INTENSITY IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME IS OF COURSE HIGHLY\r\nDEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WATER.  SHOULD FAY\r\nREMAIN VERY NEAR OR OVER LAND...IT WOULD PROBABLY WEAKEN TO\r\nDISSIPATION SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 25.3N  81.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 26.6N  81.7W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 28.1N  81.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 29.2N  81.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 30.3N  81.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 31.0N  81.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 32.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 32.0N  84.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008\r\n \r\nSFMR...DROPSONDE...AND FLIGHT-LEVEL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT FAY\r\nDID NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF AT ALL...BEFORE COMING ASHORE.  A\r\nDROPSONDE REPORTED A SURFACE WIND OF 49 KT...AND THERE WERE\r\nBELIEVABLE 49 KT WINDS FROM THE SFMR. THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nOBSERVED WAS 61 KT. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 50 KT.  THERE WERE A FEW SFMR WINDS ABOUT 5 KT HIGHER THAT\r\nMIGHT OR MIGHT NOT HAVE BEEN CORRECT...BUT IN ANY EVENT FAY DIDN'T\r\nMAKE IT TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  FAY SHOULD WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT\r\nCROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IF THE CENTER DOES EMERGE INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC AS FORECAST...FAY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nANTICYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND SLIGHT\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/8.  OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO A CONSENSUS\r\nHAS BEEN BUILDING ON FAY BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A MIGRATORY\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERLIES...WITH EVEN THE GFDL\r\nBEGINNING TO BACK OFF ON A PROLONGED NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLIGHTLY SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 25.9N  81.7W    50 KT...LANDFALL\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N  81.3W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 28.3N  80.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 29.3N  80.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 30.0N  81.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 30.5N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 31.0N  83.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 31.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008\r\n \r\nDOPPLER RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT FAY HAS KEPT A\r\nWELL DEFINED PATTERN...AND IN FACT...RADAR SHOWS A RING OF\r\nCONVECTION WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYE FEATURE. DOPPLER VELOCITIES\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS AND BASED ON SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 986 MB.  FAY IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18\r\nHOURS. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE 24 TO\r\n48 HOUR PERIOD WHEN FAY IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATER JUST OFF THE\r\nFLORIDA EAST COAST. IF FAY MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE ON\r\nRADAR...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.\r\nAT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOLLOWS CONTINUITY AND THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE AND MAKES FAY A\r\nSTRONGER CYCLONE OVER THE WATER JUST EAST OF NORTH FLORIDA. DO NOT\r\nRULE OUT THIS POSSIBILITY YET.\r\n \r\nFAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS\r\nWHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH\r\nIS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT AND BE REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FIRST WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS..CAUSING FAY TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND THEN...AS THE RIDGE BECOMES STRONGER...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTH FLORIDA OR\r\nTHE GEORGIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GUIDANCE\r\nUNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA OR\r\nGEORGIA.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 26.7N  81.3W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 27.9N  80.9W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 28.9N  80.6W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 29.5N  80.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 30.0N  80.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 30.6N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 31.0N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 31.5N  86.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008\r\n \r\nFAY DID NOT WEAKEN OVER LAND AS ANTICIPATED AND IN FACT...IT IS\r\nSTRONGER THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN SO FAR. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY SET AT 55 KNOTS. THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR\r\nAND CONFIRMED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS PROMPTED A\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. GIVEN THAT FAY HAS\r\nKEPT SUCH A WELL-DEFINED SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND ON SATELLITE...THE\r\nCHANCES THAT THE CYCLONE BECOMES A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER\r\nTHE GULF STREAM EAST OF FLORIDA HAVE INCREASED. THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS SUPPORTED BY SHIPS...THE GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS...AND IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY HAS BEEN TRACKED BY SATELLITE\r\nAND NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. CURRENTLY FAY IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...THIS STEERING PATTERN IS\r\nFORECAST TO CHANGE SOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP\r\nNORTH OF FAY. THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE FAY TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA AND\r\nGEORGIA. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nGRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST TURN BUT GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SHARPER\r\nWESTWARD TURN. IF SO...SOME SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED LATER ON. \r\n \r\nTHIS NEW DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH FLORIDA AND GEORGIA COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 27.3N  81.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 28.2N  80.5W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 29.0N  80.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 30.0N  81.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 30.5N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 31.4N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2008\r\n\r\nAFTER FAY'S UNEXPECTED STRENGTHENING EPISODE OVER THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA EARLIER TODAY...THE STORM IS NOW BEHAVING IN A MORE\r\nNORMAL FASHION.  THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS\r\nDEGRADED...WITH THE EYE NO LONGER EVIDENT...AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO\r\nAROUND 45 KT.  FAY WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE WHILE ITS\r\nCENTER IS OVER LAND.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AS DEPICTED\r\nBY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.  THEREFORE FAY\r\nIS LIKELY TO COMMENCE RESTRENGTHENING WHEN IT MOVES BACK OVER WATER\r\nON WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  OF COURSE...THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FAY IS ALSO STRONGLY\r\nDEPENDENT ON HOW LONG THE CENTER STAYS OVER WATER.\r\n\r\nRADAR FIXES SHOWED THAT FAY NEARLY STALLED A FEW HOURS AGO...AND\r\nTHEN WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE EAST.  CURRENTLY IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS BACK ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...OR 030/4.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFAY OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS.  THIS EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN WOULD BEGIN TO BLOCK THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WITHIN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT FAY WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE COAST AFTER MOVING\r\nJUST OFFSHORE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST ON THIS PACKAGE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 27.7N  80.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 28.4N  80.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 29.5N  80.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 29.9N  81.7W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 30.5N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  85.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  87.5W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY HAS TURNED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER FINALLY\r\nREACHING THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTER REMAINS JUST INLAND ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF\r\nMELBOURNE FLORIDA AND MAY NOT EMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN UNTIL\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON WHEN FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE CAPE\r\nCANAVERAL AREA. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING A\r\nTIGHTER TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN A SHARPER WESTWARD JOG\r\nACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AFTER 36 HOURS AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE EXCEPTIONS TO\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND KEEP FAY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND\r\nALABAMA...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS ARE NO LONGER TAKING FAY EAST OF\r\n80W LONGITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH...OR LEFT...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBUT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IS BECOMING\r\nSMALLER NOW THAT FAY IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST AND IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE MORE THAN 30 NM OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS. EVEN IF FAY DOES MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...NOAA BUOY DATA INDICATES THAT SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED BY AS MUCH AS 3 CELSIUS...WHICH IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS\r\nINCORPORATING. THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE ALSO NO LONGER FORECASTING FAY\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. FAY HAS MAINTAINED GOOD CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF GOOD UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW...SO SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...IF FAY REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER\r\nTO LAND...THEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE TOO\r\nHIGH THROUGH 36 HOURS. IF FAY MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... THEN INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE TOO LOW\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 28.2N  80.6W    45 KT...JUST INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 28.8N  80.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 29.3N  80.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 29.6N  81.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 30.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  86.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2008\r\n \r\nFAY HAS BEEN OVER LAND LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND IT HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO WEAKEN. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS PRIMARILY\r\nOVER WATER AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN SET TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND THE SFMR. \r\nSOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER WATER ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH SOME RAINBANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS EXPECTED. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECASTS FAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE DUE\r\nTO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT ALLOWS\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING. ONLY THE HWRF INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL. A LITTLE DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT WOULD KEEP\r\nTHE CENTER OVER LAND AND INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFAY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH...ABOUT 3 KNOTS...\r\nWHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF FAY AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF NORTH FLORIDA\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND UNTIL IT\r\nBECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IN THE LONG RANGE...SOME GLOBAL MODELS TURN\r\nFAY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BUT I WOULD NOT RULE\r\nOUT THE POSSIBILITY YET GIVEN THE GOOD PERFORMANCE OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 28.6N  80.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 29.0N  80.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 29.4N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 29.8N  82.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  83.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  86.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 32.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008\r\n \r\nFAY HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS RAINBANDS\r\nSPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER BUT THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE.\r\nSURFACE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD ONLY ALLOW SOME\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING...IF AT ALL.\r\n \r\nFAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT BEGAN TO\r\nDRIFT NORTHWARD IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nDEVELOPING NORTH OF FAY IS ALREADY BLOCKING ITS NORTHWARD\r\nPROGRESSION AND FAY SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ISSUE\r\nREGARDING THE SLOW MOTION IS THAT FAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DUMP\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS PATH...AND WILL PROBABLY BE REMEMBERED\r\nAS A VERY WET STORM.  THE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nKEEPING FAY OVER LAND IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK GUIDANCE. ONLY THE ECMWF MODEL BRINGS\r\nFAY OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 28.8N  80.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 29.2N  80.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 29.5N  81.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 29.8N  83.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 30.2N  84.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 31.3N  86.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 32.5N  88.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2008\r\n\r\nFAY HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY WHILE CENTERED ONLY ABOUT 20 N MI OFF\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA...AS SHOWN BY NWS WSR-88D\r\nRADAR DATA AND CONFIRMED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE STORM\r\nHAS OCCASIONALLY LOOKED FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nWRAPPING AROUND WHAT ESSENTIALLY QUALIFIES AS AN EYE.  WSR-88D\r\nVELOCITIES ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS SETTLED FOR NOW AT 994 MB.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE\r\nFAY IN A FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF FAY OVER THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC STATES SHOULD GET FAY MOVING GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH SLOWLY...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  BETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF\r\nFLORIDA...SINCE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  ONCE FAY MOVES BACK OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA TOMORROW...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.  A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SAGGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND\r\nSO HAS THE OFFICIAL TRACK.  ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST POINTS LISTED\r\nBELOW DO NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK HUGS\r\nTHE GULF COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA AT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  IF\r\nFAY ENDS UP MOVING FARTHER SOUTH THAN FORECAST...AND SPENDS MORE\r\nTIME THAN FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD BE AT\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH A COUPLE OF DAYS FROM NOW. \r\nIF...HOWEVER...IT MOVES NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...IT COULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOODING HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 28.9N  80.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 29.2N  81.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.4N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 30.1N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 31.0N  87.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 32.0N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 32.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT FAY IS NOT STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 850 MB FROM THE AIRCRAFT WAS 62\r\nKT...CORRESPONDING TO SURFACE WINDS OF 50 KT...WITH PEAK ACTUAL\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF 50 KT FROM A DROPSONDE AND 51 KT FROM THE\r\nSFMR.  THE PRESSURE HAS BEEN HOLDING STEADY AROUND 993-994 MB.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n \r\nAFTER DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TONIGHT...FAY IS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY AGAIN JUST A FEW MILES OFFSHORE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF FAY...WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CYCLONE'S CURRENT\r\nSTALL...IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD\r\nWESTWARD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nLIFTS OUT OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN FAY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN A\r\nGREAT DEAL OF CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THIS FORECAST\r\nCYCLE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW SHOWS A\r\nTRACK VERY CLOSE TO THE GULF COAST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET CHANGE IN THE RADAR PRESENTATION OVER THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS ACTUALLY\r\nDEGRADED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME EROSION NOTED IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS STILL SUPPPORT SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE BROAD STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE'S CORE WOULD\r\nARGUE AGAINST MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ASSUMING\r\nTHAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS CORRECT IN KEEPING FAY INLAND AFTER\r\nTHAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT...\r\nHOWEVER...SHOULD FAY GO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK INTO THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 29.1N  80.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 29.4N  81.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 29.6N  82.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 30.0N  83.9W    30 KT...ALONG FL GULF COAST\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 30.3N  85.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 30.7N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 31.0N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT. FAY HAS BEEN MEANDERING\r\nFOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY. LATEST\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 994 MB AND\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS AND DEEP CONVECTION\r\nMAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  NWS DOPPLER RADAR CLEARLY SHOWS A SPINNING\r\nRING OF CONVECTION WITH DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF UP TO 67 KNOTS AT\r\nAPPROXIMATELY 5000 FEET. HOWEVER...FAY DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER\r\nCORE.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD IMPEDE IT. NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES\r\nINLAND WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT A TRACK FATHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED COULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THIS CASE...FAY\r\nSHOULD NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS FORECAST...AND DO NOT RULE OUT THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF THE CENTER OF FAY REMAINS\r\nOVER WATER LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS HAVE REMAINED VERY LIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY FAY HAS\r\nBARELY MOVED SINCE YESTERDAY. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF FAY. THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR WEST...A MOTION WE HAVE BEEN FORECASTING BUT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED\r\nYET. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEVELOPING STEERING PATTERN GIVES ME NO\r\nOPTION BUT TO FORECAST A TURN TO THE LEFT WHICH SHOULD BEGIN SOON.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 29.3N  80.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.5N  81.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.8N  84.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 31.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 32.0N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008\r\n \r\nNWS DOPPLER RADAR...AIRCRAFT DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY'S LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nHAS BEEN SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST WITH THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE NEAR FLAGLER BEACH.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES\r\nREMARKABLY WELL-DEFINED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. DOPPLER WINDS AND\r\nRECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n50 KNOTS. SOME HIGHER WINDS COULD HAVE OCCURRED OVER WATER IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT A FEW HOURS AGO BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSED THE\r\nCOAST. NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS MOVING INLAND...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. \r\n\r\nFAY IS ALREADY SOUTH OF A RIDGE AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 4 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLOW WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 4 DAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE\r\nAGAIN AND WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FAY SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE. \r\n\r\nSINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA GULF\r\nCOAST...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH COULD BRING THE CENTER BACK OVER\r\nTHE WATER AND FAY COULD PERHAPS RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nTHIS UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS HAS PROMPTED\r\nTHE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA\r\nGULF COAST.    \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  81.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  82.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 30.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008\r\n \r\nFAY HAS STILL REFUSED TO DECIDEDLY BEGIN MOVING WESTWARD AS WE AND\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING\r\nWESTWARD...WITH THE CENTER LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM THE NORTHEAST\r\nFLORIDA COAST.  THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY HAS\r\nDEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT WSR-88D\r\nVELOCITIES SUGGEST THAT SURFACE WINDS OVER WATER TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER REMAIN AS STRONG AS ABOUT 50 KT...ALTHOUGH THAT\r\nRADAR FEATURE HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH WE SAID THIS LAST NIGHT...AND IT DID NOT HAPPEN...ALL OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT FAY SHOULD START TRULY MOVING\r\nWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.  THAT RIDGE SHOULD KEEP FAY ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH SINCE THE\r\nLAST CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG THAT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...TAKING FAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST. \r\nSOME MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...WHILE THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND UKMET FORECAST FAY TO REMAIN INLAND OVER THE\r\nPANHANDLE.  LATER...AT 3 TO 5 DAYS...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nANOTHER SLOWDOWN AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND\r\nBLOCKS FAY'S FORWARD PROGRESS AGAIN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS\r\nESSENTIALLY NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW STRONG FAY IS\r\nAFTER CROSSING THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  IF THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY TRACKS ARE CORRECT AND FAY SPENDS A GOOD BIT OF TIME\r\nCENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS...BUT IF THE OPPOSITE OCCURS AND IT NEVER EMERGES BACK\r\nOVER WATER...PERMANENT WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION COULD HAPPEN\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ALONG\r\nTHE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST...AND USING THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AS GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS\r\nFAY AS A BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...REQUIRING THE\r\nISSUANCE OF NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE FLORIDA GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 29.3N  81.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 29.4N  82.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.6N  83.7W    35 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 30.4N  86.7W    35 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 31.0N  88.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 31.2N  89.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF FAY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS 50 N MI OR MORE FROM THE CENTER AND THE STRONGEST\r\nRAINBANDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nWSR-88D DOPPLER WINDS DATA SUGGEST A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY...WHICH IS SET AT 45 KT IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO POOR\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nFAY HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 280/5.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AMPLIFYING\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT\r\n48-72 HR.   THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE FAY TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD...WITH ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR FAY TO MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY...AS THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION\r\nBETWEEN 48 AND 72 HR THAN IT DID 6 HR AGO.  AFTER 72 HR...\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FAY TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD\r\nAT THIS POINT...SO THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHEASTERLY MOTION.\r\n \r\nDUE TO FAY'S PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DEPENDENT\r\nON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FAY WILL\r\nNOT LIKELY BE OVER WATER LONG ENOUGH TO INTENSITY.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE ALONG\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  IF FAY MOVES\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL MOVE INLAND EARLIER\r\nAND WEAKEN FASTER.  IF IT MOVES LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK MORE\r\nOVER OPEN WATER...IT COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CURRENT BROAD STRUCTURE IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WESTERLY SHEAR TO\r\nIMPACT FAY STARTING IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD STOP\r\nINTENSIFICATION REGARDLESS OF WHETHER IT IS OVER WATER OR NOT.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 29.6N  82.2W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 29.7N  83.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 29.8N  84.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 30.1N  86.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 31.0N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 32.0N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008\r\n \r\nFAY HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT\r\nHAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CENTER PRIMARILY OVER WATER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nCONTINUES WELL ESTABLISHED.  BASED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40\r\nKNOTS. THE INTERACTION WITH LAND WILL CAUSE FAY TO WEAKEN BUT\r\nBECAUSE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER\r\nWATER...FAY COULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT\r\n4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE\r\nACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...FAY SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE SLOWLY BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND\r\nFAY COULD BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD. BY THEN...FAY IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nA REMNANT LOW.  \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 29.6N  82.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 29.7N  83.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 30.0N  85.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 30.3N  86.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 30.6N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 31.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE CIRCULATION OF FAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS\r\nNORTHERN FLORIDA. MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nOCCURRING WITHIN RAIN BANDS MOSTLY OVER WATER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 40 KNOTS BUT A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS ANTICIPATED. BECAUSE A\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER...FAY\r\nCOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF FAY HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT\r\n4 KNOTS AROUND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN\r\nSHOULD HOLD FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...FORCING FAY TO CONTINUE ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST\r\nTO COLLAPSE AND FAY COULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. BY THEN...FAY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 29.8N  83.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 29.9N  84.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 30.2N  85.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 31.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 32.0N  91.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF FAY CROSSED THE COAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA\r\nNEAR KEATON BEACH AT ABOUT 2200 UTC...EMERGING OVER APALACHEE BAY\r\nIN THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nITSELF IS NOT ESPECIALLY WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY...BUT A\r\nPOTENT NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER WATER IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THIS BAND ARE\r\nABOUT 45 KT...SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  AN EXPANSIVE RAIN\r\nSHIELD EXTENDS WELL INLAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND WHILE\r\nWINDS ARE GUSTY IN THOSE REGIONS...SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING INLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES LEAD TO AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/7...AS\r\nFAY LUMBERS ALONG TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THAT RIDGE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO FORCE FAY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAT SPEED SIMILAR TO THAT CURRENTLY OBSERVED.  AS A RESULT...FAY\r\nWILL BE SKIRTING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI\r\nCOASTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS\r\nARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nTO COLLAPSE AGAIN...AND VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ENSUE REGARDING WHERE AND\r\nHOW FAST A WEAKENING FAY WILL GO.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW\r\nRELATIVELY LITTLE NET MOTION ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLOW BEND TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF FAY WILL BE NEAR OR OVER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS OR SO...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO\r\nSUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO FORECAST\r\nWEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...GIVEN THAT FAY WILL REMAIN\r\nNEAR THE COAST AND APPEARS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE MUCH IN STRUCTURE. \r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING LAND INTERACTION AND A GRADUAL RAMPING\r\nUP OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST OF FAY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS REQUIRES A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE COASTAL WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 29.7N  84.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 29.8N  85.3W    45 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.9W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.5W    40 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 30.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":31,"Date":"2008-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF FAY MADE LANDFALL\r\nABOUT 0600 UTC JUST SOUTHWEST OF CARRABELLE FLORIDA.  THE LATEST\r\nIMAGERY FROM THE WSR-88D IN TALLAHASSEE SHOWS A DECREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND AN INCREASE ON CONVECTION BANDING\r\nAWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE ARE NO\r\nRECENT OBSERVATIONS OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS FROM\r\nEITHER LAND OR MARINE STATIONS...SO THE INTENSITY IS A LITTLE\r\nUNCERTAIN.  BASED MAINLY ON DOPPLER WIND VELOCITIES...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER\r\nWINDS OF NEAR 65 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THESE WINDS ARE NOT\r\nMIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 275/6...AS THE CENTER\r\nOCCASIONALLY SURGES AHEAD FOLLOWED BY PERIODS OF LITTLE MOVEMENT. \r\nFAY REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nAFTER 24-48 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION SHOULD STEER FAY WESTWARD FOR 48-72 HR...THEN STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AFTER 48 HR THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE\r\nSPREAD IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEAST MOVEMENT.  THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nARE THE FASTEST WITH THIS MOTION...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH FORECASTS\r\nFAY TO MAKE A LOOP OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...IS THE SLOWEST. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS ON THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFAY WILL REMAIN IN A GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nCONTROLLED MAINLY BY HOW MUCH LAND THE STORM ENCOUNTERS.  ON THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...ENOUGH OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE OVER WATER FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HR TO MAINTAIN FAY AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE STORM\r\nCOULD BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF IT GOES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  AFTER 72 HR...FAY SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH INLAND AND IN ENOUGH\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CAUSE IT TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 29.9N  84.9W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 30.0N  86.0W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 30.3N  87.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 30.5N  89.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N  90.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 30.5N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 32.1N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":32,"Date":"2008-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008\r\n \r\nFAY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVED WESTWARD WITH HALF OF ITS CIRCULATION\r\nOVER WATER AND HALF OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AND MORE\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS WITH THE STRONGEST ONE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS AND BECAUSE A PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS OVER WATER...FAY IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH FOR THE THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS\r\nTHE CIRCULATION MOVES FARTHER INLAND A MORE DEFINITE WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK AND FAY IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD OT 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. FAY CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...FAY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR REMAIN NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION\r\nPROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF ITS EXACT TRACK...FAY WILL BE MOVING RATHER SLOWLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...POSING A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nAND FLOOD HAZARD TO A VERY LARGE AREA.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 30.1N  85.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 30.1N  86.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 30.5N  88.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 30.6N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.7N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 32.5N  90.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 33.5N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":33,"Date":"2008-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008\r\n\r\nSURFACE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF FAY IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nGRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MOSTLY TO\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. NOW THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nFAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AND THIS\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FAY\r\nCOULD REMAIN MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS. ALTHOUGH BY\r\nTHEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT\r\nLOW...IT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS\r\nPATH AND THE EMPHASIS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THESE RAINS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 30.6N  86.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 30.9N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 31.2N  89.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 34.5N  89.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fay","Adv":34,"Date":"2008-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE\r\nFLORIDA PANHANDLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/7.  RAIN\r\nBANDS HAVE BECOME RELATIVELY FEW AND FAR BETWEEN OVER WATER...AND\r\nALL AVAILABLE DATA SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING.  FAY IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION\r\nWITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...ALTHOUGH RATHER GUSTY CONDITIONS\r\nPERSIST EVEN OVER LAND AREAS.  SINCE FAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER\r\nLAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH\r\nDUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE GULF OF MEXICO...FAY COULD REMAIN A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DOWNGRADE BASED ON WINDS DOES NOT CHANGE THE FACT THAT THIS\r\nSLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND\r\nFLOODING HAZARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME...ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST AND ADJACENT AREAS WELL INLAND.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nBY ALL MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH.  AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...MOST MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE...LEAVING FAY TO PERHAPS MEANDER OR\r\nEVEN REMAIN STATIONARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...FURTHER EXACERBATING\r\nTHE RAINFALL AND FLOODING POTENTIAL.  MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON\r\nWHAT BECOMES OF FAY IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOME...SUCH\r\nAS THE GFS...FORECASTING A BRISK MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD\r\nOF THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT WITH OTHERS CALLING FOR FAY\r\nTO HANG AROUND THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH 120 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE...SHOWING A VERY SLOW\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 30.9N  87.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 31.3N  88.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 31.2N  90.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.0N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 31.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 33.0N  89.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 35.0N  88.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN MONITORING IN THE\r\nCARIBBEAN.  WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED...\r\nPARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. \r\nANALYSIS OF DIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THEREFORE WE ARE\r\nINITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.  AN SSM/IS\r\nIMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO DEPICTED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AT THE 91\r\nGHZ FREQUENCY...BUT IT WAS NOT EVIDENT ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. \r\nSINCE THE LATTER CHANNEL IS MORE SENSITIVE TO THE LOWER-LEVELS...\r\nTHIS EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS PRIMARILY ALOFT.  INTERESTINGLY\r\nHOWEVER...THE GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALSO SHOW A RELATIVELY CLEAR\r\nAREA NEAR THE CENTER THAT RESEMBLES AN EYE.  OUR INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER REPORT\r\nFROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42059.  OBSERVATIONS FROM AN UPCOMING AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SHOULD GIVE UPDATED INFORMATION ON THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER\r\nALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  CURIOUSLY...THE GFS HAS FAILED\r\nTO PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE THUS FAR.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/13 ALTHOUGH RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE MOTION MAY BE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THIS VALUE.  THERE IS AN\r\nUNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD TO OUR TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SEEMS TO BE\r\nTHE RESULT OF TWO PRIMARY SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE MOTION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  ONE WOULD BE A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INTO A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS IS\r\nDEPICTED BY THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  A SECOND SCENARIO IS\r\nFOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO BEND MORE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER FLORIDA...AND THAT IS DEPICTED BY THE\r\nBAM TRACKS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL.  OUR FIRST OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BUT LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NOT HIGH...PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nTHIS FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS\r\nAND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 15.5N  70.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  71.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N  72.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N  73.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.7N  74.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.0N  77.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  78.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-08-25 18:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n200 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM GUSTAV WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 50 KT...AND TO CHANGE THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH\r\nFOR HISPANIOLA.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...HOWEVER THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1800Z 15.8N  70.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  71.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N  72.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N  73.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 19.7N  74.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 22.0N  77.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N  78.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n\r\nAFTER ITS RATHER RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION EARLIER TODAY...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED-LOOKING...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CENTER.  THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS REPORTED A VERY SMALL AREA OF STRONG WINDS JUST\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED\r\nOF 67 KT.  USING A 75 PERCENT RATIO OF SURFACE TO FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS APPROPRIATE FOR THE 925 MB FLIGHT ALTITUDE GIVES 50 KT FOR\r\nTHE INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  ASSUMING THE CURRENTLY LESS-ORGANIZED\r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS MERELY TEMPORARY...STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE METEOROLOGICAL AND OCEANIC\r\nCONDITIONS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STRENGTH OF GUSTAV\r\nWILL OBVIOUSLY BE A STRONG FUNCTION OF HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION\r\nINTERACTS WITH LAND.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO FAIL TO\r\nSHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SHOWS WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315/12. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR\r\nFLORIDA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION OF GUSTAV TO\r\nGRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THIS NHC FORECAST. NOTE THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS...AND ONE SHOULD\r\nNOT FOCUS ON THESE PRECISE POINTS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT\r\nOBSERVATIONS SHOWED THAT GUSTAV IS A LITTLE SMALLER THAN EARLIER\r\nESTIMATED.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 16.3N  71.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.2N  72.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N  73.3W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.4N  74.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 20.2N  75.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 21.3N  77.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 22.0N  79.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 23.0N  81.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A THICKENING EYEWALL.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 00Z WERE T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE\r\nSTRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT AT 06Z WILL MOST LIKELY\r\nFIND A HURRICANE.  A MICROWAVE PASS AT 2243Z SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL\r\nEYEWALL.  GIVEN THIS STRUCTURE...AND A SHIPS RI INDEX WELL ABOVE\r\nCLIMATOLOGY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE\r\nCENTER OF GUSTAV REACHING HAITI.  AFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY OF\r\nGUSTAV WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW MUCH THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS\r\nWITH THE LAND MASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT...WHILE NOT ANTICYCLONIC...IS AT LEAST\r\nDIFLUENT AND OF LIGHT SHEAR.  THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK INDICATES\r\nMORE TIME OVER WATER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED TO REFLECT THAT.  BOTH THE\r\nGFDL AND THE HWRF SHOW GUSTAV AVOIDING NEARLY ALL OF CUBA AND HAVE\r\nGUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE IN FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE\r\nCENTERED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LARGELY\r\nIN PLACE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN A SLOWING OF GUSTAV'S FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE LEFT. \r\nEXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS KEEP GUSTAV\r\nSOUTH OF CENTRAL CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT MOST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE IS EVEN\r\nFARTHER SOUTH.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 16.6N  71.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N  72.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.5N  73.9W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.3N  75.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.8N  76.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N  78.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N  80.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 23.0N  83.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008\r\n \r\nGUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION HAS FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 90 KT...PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 76 KT...AND A RECENT\r\nESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 984 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 75 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING\r\nPATTERN WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND\r\nGUSTAV IS LIKELY NOT DONE INTENSIFYING BEFORE IT PASSES OVER\r\nSOUTHWESTERN HAITI LATER TODAY.  SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN 24 HR\r\nDUE TO THE LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE OVER EXTREMELY WARM WATERS WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT\r\nSHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND NOW CALLS\r\nFOR GUSTAV TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF FORECAST SHOW AN\r\nEVEN STRONGER HURRICANE.  MOST INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTAV WILL BE\r\nAN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nIN A FEW DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8...THOUGH GUSTAV MAY RECENTLY BE\r\nMOVING A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO NOTE THIS\r\nMORNING IS A DRAMATIC SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT WITH ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE.\r\nA LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nEAST AWAY FROM GUSTAV...LEAVING RIDGING OVER THE BAHAMAS AND\r\nFLORIDA. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST IN A DAY\r\nOR SO DUE TO THIS BUILDING RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 24 HR BUT IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST COULD HAVE BEEN\r\nSHIFTED EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT BUT WE'D PREFER TO WAIT UNTIL THE\r\nGUIDANCE BECOMES MORE STABLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 17.2N  71.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 18.0N  72.9W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.8N  74.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 19.2N  75.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 19.4N  76.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 20.0N  79.3W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  82.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 23.0N  85.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION EARLY THIS MORNING FOUND PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 91 KT...AND AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 78 KT.\r\nTHESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT.  A\r\nDROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE OF GUSTAV DURING THE LAST AIRCRAFT\r\nPASS THROUGH THE CENTER JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...FOUND A SURFACE\r\nPRESSURE OF 982 MB...BUT WITH 12 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE...SO THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN ESTIMATED SLIGHTLY LOWER.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nAND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A\r\nVERY SMALL EYE...HOWEVER THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nGUSTAV CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF\r\nHAITI...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/8.  TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nVERY SOON AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED OVER FLORIDA.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN\r\nTHE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER REACHES MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF\r\nHAITI.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING GUSTAV'S PASSAGE OVER\r\nLAND...AND SINCE IT IS A VERY SMALL SYSTEM IT COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE \r\nMORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.  THEREAFTER...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER\r\nWARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH FAVORS\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BELOW THAT OF THE GFDL...\r\nBUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE HWRF. \r\n\r\nONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO\r\nPOTENTIALLY LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH LOCATION AND INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 17.9N  72.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 18.6N  73.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N  74.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 19.3N  75.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.4N  77.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  80.2W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  83.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 24.0N  87.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...ON\r\nWHICH THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BECAME EVIDENT...INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1730 UTC.  A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 992 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT JUST AS THE CENTER MOVED\r\nINLAND...HOWEVER A DROPSONDE RELEASED JUST EAST OF THE EYE HAD A\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE OF 997 MB WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 64 KT.  SO THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN 992 MB.  IN ANY\r\nEVENT...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN\r\nOF THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI...GUSTAV IS LIKELY LOSING\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY TONIGHT.  HOWEVER\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nWITH ONLY A LITTLE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THEREFORE GUSTAV\r\nIS LIKELY TO REGAIN STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE\r\nAND EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nRECALLED THAT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND MODEL FORECASTS OF INTENSITY HAVE\r\nLITTLE SKILL IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY RANGE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/9.  THE MAIN PLAYER IN THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN FOR GUSTAV CONTINUES TO BE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nANTICYCLONE/HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE'S HEADING SHOULD GRADUALLY BEND TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT MOVES\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTICYCLONE.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND OVERALL THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE.  THEREFORE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 18.4N  73.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.9N  74.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N  75.2W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N  76.6W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.6N  78.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 20.3N  81.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 22.5N  85.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 25.5N  88.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2008\r\n \r\nBETWEEN 21Z AND 01Z THIS EVENING...RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE CUBAN\r\nRADAR SITE AT GRAN PIEDRA DEPICTED A NICE DOUGHNUT SHAPED MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPENINSULA OF HAITI. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME BOTH RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE EYE FEATURE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A\r\nRAGGED AND POORLY DEFINED FEATURE. THEREFORE...GUSTAV HAS BEEN\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE INTENSITY LOWERED TO 60\r\nKT...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES DERIVED AT 00Z. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY\r\nRESTRICTED BUT IMPROVING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT... AND IS\r\nEXCELLENT IN THE OTHER THREE QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nTHE AVERAGE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS 290/07...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nMOTION OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS HAS BEEN ALMOST DUE WEST. THE PRIMARY\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE THE LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WHICH\r\nIS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF IS ALSO EXPECTED TO\r\nBE A PLAYER AND ACT TO SLOW DOWN GUSTAV BY DAY 5. THE EXCEPTIONS\r\nARE THE GFDL AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BLAST GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE TEXAS COAST.  THIS SEEMS PHYSICALLY\r\nUNLIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GUSTAV\r\nTO GRADUALLY MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND MOVE OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUOS\r\nADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE IN THE EXPECTATION THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PLAY A MORE PROMINENT ROLE THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE GFDL AND ECMWF.  \r\n\r\nGUSTAV IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...\r\nWHICH IS INDUCING SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...THE FLOW IS ALSO STRONGLY DIFLUENT...WHICH SHOULD AID THE\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ONCE GUSTAV CLEARS THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF HAITI. BOTH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY BRINGING GUSTAV TO JUST BELOW\r\nCATEGORY 4 STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...POSSIBLE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY CREATE\r\nINTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 18.6N  73.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.9N  74.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  75.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N  77.1W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 19.4N  78.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 20.5N  82.2W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 23.0N  86.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N  89.5W   110 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008\r\n \r\nGUSTAV HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI THIS\r\nMORNING WITH STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT. LITTLE INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORESEEN UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF HAITI. THEREAFTER...A STEADY INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY...\r\nESPECIALLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE MORE OPEN WATERS\r\nNORTHWEST OF JAMAICA. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT...AND\r\nCOMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM WATERS...RAPID INTENSIFICATION COULD\r\nOCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CENTER IS NEAR OR SOUTH OF\r\nWESTERN CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM EARLIER DUE TO\r\nTHE INITIAL WEAKENING BUT STILL SHOWS THE STORM BECOMING A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE LONGER-TERM...\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF UPPER-WIND PATTERNS...BUT IN\r\nGENERAL THE UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH RECENTLY BUT AN AVERAGED OVER THE\r\nPAST TWELVE HOURS YIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 300/4. A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST IS LIKELY TODAY AS THE STORM BUMPS INTO A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA. GUSTAV SHOULD THEN BE STEERED\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS\r\nAND TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. THE GFS IS AN EXTREME OUTLIER EARLY ON...TAKING THE\r\nSTORM NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...WHICH IS CONSIDERED VERY\r\nUNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 18.6N  73.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N  74.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N  75.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 19.2N  77.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N  78.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 21.0N  82.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 23.5N  86.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N  89.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2008\r\n \r\nGUSTAV HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEPART THE SOUTHWEST PENINSULA OF HAITI. \r\nHOWEVER RECENT HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM GRAN PIEDRA CUBA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE LAST AERIAL\r\nRECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS IN THE STORM DID NOT ACTUALLY SUPPORT\r\nAN INTENSITY OF 50 KT...BUT BASED ON THE TREND SEEN IN THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION WE ASSUME THAT GUSTAV IS PROBABLY VERY NEAR\r\nTHAT INTENSITY BY NOW.   CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE SOME MODEST\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS\r\nTO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...ONCE GUSTAV PULLS AWAY FROM\r\nHAITI.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE THROUGH DAY 3.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AT DAYS 4 AND 5... SO WE SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nNOTWITHSTANDING...THERE IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...SKILL IN\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT THESE EXTENDED RANGES.  INDEED...IF ONE\r\nLOOKS AT THE LATEST WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS\r\nPACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS NEARLY AN EQUAL CHANCE THAT\r\nGUSTAV WILL BE A CATEGORY 1...CATEGORY 2...OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE\r\nAT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nLANDMASS OF SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.  HOWEVER A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...290/4...APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED THIS MORNING.  A 500 MB\r\nHIGH CENTERED NEAR FLORIDA WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nEASTWARD AND WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE STORM TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEGINNING\r\nAROUND DAY 3...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE THE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nGUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT BY DAY 5.  ONE SHOULD\r\nNOT READ MUCH INTO SUCH SHIFTS OF THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE\r\nTYPICAL ERROR OF A 5-DAY PREDICTION IS OVER 300 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 18.8N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N  74.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 19.2N  76.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 19.3N  77.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 19.9N  79.4W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 21.5N  83.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 24.5N  86.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 28.5N  88.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO GUSTAV INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 999\r\nMB AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF ABOUT 45 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DESPITE THE SHORT-TERM\r\nWEAKENING...ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE GUSTAV MOVES AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA...LIKELY\r\nTONIGHT.  STILL...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING ROBUST\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS\r\nTHAT FORECAST ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGUSTAV CONTINUES TO CRAWL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF 300/03.  THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED.\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN 2-3 DAYS...THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST...TAKING GUSTAV OVER OR VERY NEAR WESTERN CUBA AND\r\nINTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  BY DAY 5...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nNOW SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS COULD WEAKEN RESULTING IN\r\nA SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  IN GENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE\r\nNOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THERE STILL REMAINS SIGNIFICANT\r\nUNCERTAINTY REGARDING GUSTAV'S ULTIMATE TRACK AT DAYS 3-5...AND IT\r\nIS MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT IMPACT THIS SYSTEM MAY HAVE ON THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 19.1N  74.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.1N  75.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 19.2N  76.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  78.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 20.2N  79.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 25.5N  86.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 28.5N  88.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z.  DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE\r\n41 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX\r\nAND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION.  A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE...ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT\r\nOF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO. AFTER THAT...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nCOMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE\r\nEVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE\r\nCENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nBLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED\r\nWITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES\r\nMOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND\r\nGFS...WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL...AND IS JUST\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT.\r\n\r\nGUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE\r\nTERRAIN OF HAITI.  IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE\r\nOVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST.   IN ANOTHER 24-36\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER\r\nANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nRESTRENGTHEN.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER\r\nTHE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.  AFTER THAT...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION RATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER\r\nRESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY...BUT IS\r\nOTHERWISE SIMILAR...AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nIT PROBABLY WOULDN'T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES...AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY\r\nINTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 18.8N  75.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 18.8N  76.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 18.9N  78.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 19.4N  79.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 20.1N  81.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  84.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 29.0N  89.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND A SURPRISE THIS MORNING.\r\nGUSTAV HAS EITHER REFORMED TO THE SOUTH OR BEEN MOVING MORE TO THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 10 MB\r\nDURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE PLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE\r\nSTORM...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THE WINDS HAVE COME UP SLIGHTLY WITH THE\r\nSIGNIFICANT PRESSURE FALL AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n45 KT. MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nINTERACTION WITH JAMAICA MAY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THUS THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY RAISED FROM EARLIER. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE TO BE NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF GUSTAV...WHICH WOULD BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT GUSTAV WILL BE A POWERFUL\r\nHURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD\r\nWHEN THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF BUT THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 215/7.  THE REFORMATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER HAS CAUSED A BIG SOUTHWARD CHANGE IN THE EARLY PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST...AND GUSTAV IS NOW FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTH\r\nCOAST OF JAMAICA.  THE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE CENTERED\r\nOVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING THIS SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW GUSTAV TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND THE\r\nTIME IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A MID-LATITUDE HIGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE IN THE OHIO VALLEY IN ABOUT 5 DAYS...WHICH MAY CONTINUE\r\nSTEERING THE STORM IN A NORTHWESTWARD FASHION RATHER THAN ALLOW A\r\nMORE NORTHWARD MOTION LIKE THE GFDL SUGGESTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LONGER-TERM...ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT THE ECMWF AND GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 17.8N  75.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  77.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.8N  78.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N  80.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  82.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N  85.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  89.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 28.5N  91.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-08-28 11:30:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 60 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST TO\r\nREFLECT THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE STRENGTHENING OF\r\nGUSTAV HAS PROMPTED THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA TO ISSUE A HURRICANE\r\nWARNING FOR JAMAICA.  \r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE ISSUANCE OF AN INTERMEDIATE\r\nADVISORY AT 800 AM EDT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1130Z 17.8N  75.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N  76.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 17.8N  78.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N  80.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N  82.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 22.0N  85.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  89.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 28.5N  91.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT ABOUT 1130 UTC SHOWED THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER HAD BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING.  MY SENSE\r\nFROM VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE THEN IS THAT GUSTAV HAS STARTED MOVING\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD...PERHAPS 265/4.  IT IS NOT CLEAR IF THE CENTER\r\nWILL PASS DIRECTLY OVER JAMAICA OR WILL HUG THE SOUTH OR NORTH\r\nCOAST...BUT WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...ALL MODELS\r\nFORECAST GUSTAV TO CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD\r\nALLOW GUSTAV TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FOLLOWING\r\nFEW DAYS.  THE MODELS ALSO FORECAST A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO\r\nPROPAGATE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME\r\nFRAME...BUT SUFFICIENTLY PROGRESSIVE SUCH THAT IT WOULD NOT BLOCK\r\nGUSTAV'S NORTHWARD PROGRESS.  THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...NEAR OR\r\nOVER THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  SOME OF THE MODELS HINT THAT THE HIGH TO THE NORTH LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD COULD FORCE GUSTAV TO TURN A LITTLE BACK TO THE\r\nWEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...BUT THESE MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE\r\nMINORITY.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST...AND IS NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST TO BE IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE CONSENSUS.  RELIABLE MODELS REMAIN ON EITHER SIDE OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE PLANE WILL ARRIVE ON THE\r\nSCENE THIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO REORGANIZE...BUT THE INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO MIGHT LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH ONLY A\r\nSLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH COULD MAKE GUSTAV A HURRICANE AT ANY\r\nTIME TODAY.  AFTER PASSING JAMAICA...GUSTAV WILL ENCOUNTER THE VERY\r\nWARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW\r\nALOFT...FAVORING INTENSIFICATION.  ANY INTERACTION WITH THE NARROW\r\nLANDMASS OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF GUSTAV OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHERE WATERS WILL BE\r\nWARM BUT WIND SHEAR COULD SLOWLY INCREASE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 17.9N  76.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.9N  77.1W    65 KT...NEAR JAMAICA\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.4N  79.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.1N  80.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 20.2N  82.6W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 23.5N  86.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 27.0N  89.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  91.0W   100 KT...NEAR COAST OF LA\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE EASTERN TIP OF JAMAICA\r\nAT ABOUT 1800 UTC TODAY...BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM AN\r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ABLE TO FLY THROUGH THE\r\nCENTER NEAR THAT TIME.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS INDICATED THAT\r\nGUSTAV WAS RIGHT NEAR THE THRESHOLD BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM AND\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY...BUT THE DATA WERE NOT QUITE CONVINCING ENOUGH\r\nTO INCREASE THE INTENSITY WHICH REMAINS 60 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY DETECTED THE CENTER LOCATED INLAND OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE ISLAND.  A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM AS GUSTAV INTERACTS WITH LAND...BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE\r\nOPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW...CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  DUE TO THE VERY WARM\r\nWATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY\r\nSHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT\r\nFORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER...SO GUSTAV\r\nCOULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AS FORECAST\r\nBY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGUSTAV IS RESPONDING TO THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BY\r\nCONTINUING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 275/5.  A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THAT\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nSHOULD IMPART A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN AND GENERALLY INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.  TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS MOSTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nWESTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MODEL\r\nSPREAD INCREASES OVER THE GULF...HOWEVER...BOTH IN TERMS OF PATH\r\nAND FORWARD SPEED...BOUNDED BY THE FAST GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND A\r\nMUCH SLOWER GFS ON THE LEFT.  DESPITE SOME CHANGES IN THE\r\nINDIVIDUAL MODEL TRACKS...THE CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED AND THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\nSINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE ALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5\r\nDAYS...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NOTABLE MODEL SPREAD OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND\r\nWHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.  IN FACT...TAKING INTO\r\nACCOUNT THE UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE\r\nFORECASTS...THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS ARE ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AT EACH INDIVIDUAL LOCATION FROM\r\nTHE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE COASTLINE\r\nOF LOUISIANA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 18.1N  76.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 18.4N  77.8W    55 KT...INLAND OVER JAMAICA\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 19.1N  79.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N  81.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 21.5N  83.6W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 25.0N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 28.0N  89.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 30.0N  91.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GUSTAV HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF\r\nJAMAICA DURING THE EVENING.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE KINGSTON\r\nAREA SHOWED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND THE LOWEST OBSERVED\r\nPRESSURE WAS 990 MB.  GUSTAV IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF COLD\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/6...AFTER A SOUTH OF\r\nWEST MOTION FOR A FEW HOURS.  GUSTAV IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT WESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...THEN CONTINUE IN\r\nA GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96 HR.  THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nRATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  AFTER 96\r\nHR...THERE IS SOME SPREAD...AS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON\r\nWHETHER A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV.  THE\r\nGFDL MOVES THE STORM QUICKLY INLAND...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN\r\nSHOWS IT SLOWING DOWN OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  THE NOGAPS CALLS\r\nFOR A LEFT TURN AFTER 96 HR TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT IS DOWN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 72 HR....WITH RELIABLE MODEL FORECASTS\r\nREMAINING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TRACK.  SINCE TRACK FORECASTS ARE\r\nALWAYS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS AT 3-5 DAYS...IT IS SIMPLY\r\nIMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV\r\nWILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  GUSTAV IS SHOWING GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS TIME...BUT THERE IS EVIDENCE OF\r\nNORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD\r\nALLOW SIGNIFICANT AND POSSIBLY RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO\r\nRETREAT WESTWARD AS GUSTAV APPROACHES...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON\r\nHOW MUCH THE TROUGH WILL MOVE...WITH THE UKMET IN PARTICULAR\r\nSHOWING THE POSSIBILITY OF SHEAR AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF COAST.  THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 99\r\nKT...THE LGEM MODEL 94 KT...THE GFDL 111 KT...AND THE HWRF 137 KT. \r\nTHE LATTER IS DEFINITELY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION OCCURRED AND GUSTAV BECAME A CATEGORY 4 OR 5\r\nHURRICANE BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 17.8N  77.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 18.3N  78.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 19.1N  80.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 20.4N  82.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 21.9N  84.2W   100 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 25.5N  87.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 30.0N  92.5W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD AND\r\nIMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT\r\nHAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STORM'S CIRCULATION FOUND THAT THE SIZE OF\r\nGUSTAV HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED. ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN UNABLE\r\nTO SAMPLE THE CENTER...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT WERE\r\nOBSERVED...ALONG WITH SIMILAR VALUES FOR THE SFMR. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. THERE IS A COMPLICATED\r\nEVOLUTION TO THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND GUSTAV DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA THAT HAS BEEN\r\nSTEERING THE STORM WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. THE\r\nBERMUDA HIGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nAND CAUSE GUSTAV TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE\r\nWEEKEND. ONE BIG QUESTION IS THE EVOLUTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE\r\nMODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...ARE SHOWING THIS LOW CREATING\r\nENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE BERMUDA HIGH TO ALLOW A MOTION MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM CROSSES CUBA. IT WOULD NOT\r\nBE SURPRISING IF THAT TRACK BRIEFLY OCCURRED...BUT IN THE\r\nLONGER-TERM...A HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE\r\nGUSTAV TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE BEND. THE UKMET AND\r\nGFS HAVE HAD LARGE CHANGES TO THEIR FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS...AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...WE'VE OPTED TO KEEP\r\nTHE FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. HOPEFULLY A G-IV MISSION\r\nLATER TODAY WILL HELP RESOLVE SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES.\r\n \r\nAFTER THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM JAMAICA...SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nVERY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND COMBINED WITH THE\r\nDEEP WARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...COULD PRODUCE A STRONG HURRICANE VERY\r\nQUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nBEFORE IT REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AS SOME\r\nMODELS SHOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH AT THAT TIME. A LARGE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THIS TROUGH MAY IMPART SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON GUSTAV\r\nAS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.   ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SOME WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nLARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 18.1N  78.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.6N  79.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.6N  81.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 21.0N  82.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 22.7N  84.6W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 26.4N  88.1W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  91.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 30.0N  93.0W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX OVER WESTERN JAMAICA AT ABOUT 1100\r\nUTC...WHICH INCLUDED A CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 988 MB...GOES\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GUSTAV IS REGAINING ORGANIZATION NOW\r\nTHAT ITS CENTER HAS EMERGED OVER WATER WEST OF JAMAICA.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT UNTIL WE RECEIVE NEW DATA\r\nFROM THE NEXT AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT GUSTAV IS ALREADY A LITTLE STRONGER.  THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE\r\nMORE THAN 24 HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN...AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...SO\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS IMMINENT AND COULD EVEN BE RAPID.  THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A 28\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  SINCE THERE IS ABOUT 36 HOURS LEFT BEFORE GUSTAV\r\nCROSSES CUBA...THERE REMAINS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT GUSTAV COULD\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF\r\nTHAT ISLAND.  CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEAR TO SUPPORT A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE AS WELL...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR COULD INCREASE A\r\nLITTLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nGUSTAV IS MOVING AT ABOUT 295/7 BUT IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TO\r\nTHE RIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND IS HEADED FOR\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP\r\nOVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PATH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nPORTIONS OF CUBA IN ROUGHLY 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TRACK INTO THE\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS DIVERGE\r\nTREMENDOUSLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY\r\nHANDLE THE HIGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE\r\nMODELS THAT SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFROM THE GREAT LAKES HIGH...WHILE THOSE THAT ARE FASTER AND\r\nSTRAIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST SHOW\r\nLESS OF THAT RIDGING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nCONSENSUS...GIVING RESPECT TO THE NWS MODELS GFS...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF...WHICH ALSO SEEM TO DEPICT A SLIGHTLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT WE\r\nEXPECT GUSTAV TO BE.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...AND FINAL LANDFALL REMAINS\r\nPOSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 18.6N  78.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 19.3N  80.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 20.8N  81.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 22.6N  83.8W    95 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.7W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 27.5N  89.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 29.5N  91.0W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 31.0N  93.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS OCCASIONALLY REVEALED AN EYE TRYING TO\r\nFORM...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN PERSISTENT. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION...WITH SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nTHAT IS WELL-DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE UNDERLYING WATERS OF\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE QUITE WARM...AND TO SOME DEPTH\r\nBENEATH THE SURFACE...SO THERE ARE NO APPARENT IMPEDIMENTS TO\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE GUSTAV REACHES WESTERN CUBA. EVEN\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...AS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT SHOWS A 35 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS PRIOR TO CROSSING WESTERN CUBA.  PASSAGE OVER CUBA WILL NOT\r\nLIKELY HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON THE STORM'S STRENGTH...AND ALL GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS A STRENGTHENING TREND OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF...WITH\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE GULF...AND\r\nDESPITE THE WEAKENING IMPLIED BY THE LESSER INTENSITY OVER LAND AT\r\n96 HOURS...GUSTAV COULD MAKE FINAL LANDFALL ALONG SOME PORTION OF\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nGUSTAV HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND SPED UP A LITTLE...NOW\r\nMOVING AT ABOUT 305/10...AS IT HEADS FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE PORTION OF THAT RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO EVOLVE INTO A DEEP-LAYER HIGH THAT WILL\r\nREACH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN A FEW DAYS.  THERE ARE IMPORTANT\r\nDIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS...HOWEVER...IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL\r\nEXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THAT HIGH TOWARD TEXAS...AND IN HOW STRONG\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL BE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF IN A FEW DAYS.  THESE VARYING SOLUTIONS LEAD TO\r\nDIFFERENT TRACKS FOR GUSTAV OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  MODELS WITH\r\nTHE RIDGE EXTENSION AND A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF\r\nGUSTAV...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND UKMET...FORECAST GUSTAV TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD TOWARD TEXAS.  OTHERS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF...DO NOT SHOW THE RIDGE EXTENSION NOR A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...AND FORECAST GUSTAV TO BE PULLED INTO THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST FARTHER EAST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nLATTER SOLUTIONS AND IS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS...AND REPRESENTS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DUE TO THE NOTABLE\r\nMODEL SPREAD LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS ONCE AGAIN\r\nIMPORTANT TO RESTATE THAT IT IS SIMPLY NOT YET POSSIBLE TO\r\nDETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 19.2N  79.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 20.1N  80.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 21.7N  82.8W    90 KT...OVER ISLE OF YOUTH\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 23.4N  84.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 25.2N  86.8W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 28.0N  90.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 30.5N  92.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  94.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nSHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS A 25 NM WIDE EYE THAT IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nDEFINED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.  RECENT TRMM AND SSM/I IMAGERY\r\nALONG WITH CUBAN RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL WITH A\r\nDIAMETER OF ABOUT 100 N MI IS FORMING...AND THE NOAA PLANE REPORTED\r\n88 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 770 MB IN THE CORRESPONDING OUTER WIND\r\nMAXIMUM.  RELIABLE-LOOKING DATA FROM THE SFMR SHOWS 65-70 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS IN BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WIND MAXIMA...BUT THE\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GUSTAV EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH SOME CONTINUING DISAGREEMENT ON HOW\r\nMUCH RIDGING WILL EXTEND WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GUSTAV AND HOW\r\nGUSTAV WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HR AND THEN\r\nSHOWS SOME SPREAD.  THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN\r\nLOUISIANA...WHILE THE UKMET CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN AND LANDFALL\r\nON THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS COAST.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nLIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN IS SLOWER AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  IT LIES IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE GUSTAV HAS GOOD\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS WESTERLY\r\nFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CONCENTRIC WIND MAXIMA...MAY BE\r\nSLOWING INTENSIFICATION.  GUSTAV IS OVER WARM WATER WITH HIGH\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER SUCH WATER UNTIL IS\r\nPASSES NORTH OF THE LOOP CURRENT IN 48-60 HR.  THUS...THERE IS A\r\nDISTINCT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF THE STORM\r\nSTRUCTURE AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH PERMIT.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 104 KT...THE LGEM 97 KT...THE\r\nHWRF 114 KT...THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE 114 KT...AND THE GFDL\r\n129 KT.  BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE INTERACTION WITH\r\nTHE TROUGH WILL ALLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST PEAK\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.  GUSTAV COULD GET STRONGER THAN\r\nTHAT IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nA SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 72 HR AS GUSTAV REACHES LOWER OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT AND POSSIBLE ENCOUNTERS SOME WESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...\r\nGUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE\r\nFINAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES... WHICH COULD SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 19.5N  80.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.6N  81.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 22.3N  83.7W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 24.0N  85.6W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.7N  87.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 28.5N  90.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 30.5N  93.0W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 31.5N  94.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nGUSTAV HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING VISIBLE AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE IS NOW VERY INTENSE. THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS DOWN TO 965 MB...A DROP OF ABOUT 24 MB IN 24 HOURS. THE\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE CREW WERE 100\r\nKT AROUND 6Z... CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 90 KT AT THE SURFACE.\r\nHOWEVER THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...THUS\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 95 KT.\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE MUCH HIGHER AND THE NEXT AIRCRAFT\r\nPASS THROUGH GUSTAV COULD FIND A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE\r\nSYSTEM TRAVERSES THE EXTREMELY WARM AND DEEP WATERS OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nHOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN\r\nINCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV. IN ADDITION...SINCE\r\nTHE LOOP CURRENT IS SOUTH OF ITS TYPICAL LOCATION...THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE NOT NEARLY AS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS THEY COULD BE. THESE TWO FACTORS WILL HOPEFULLY\r\nWEAKEN THE STORM PRIOR TO U.S. LANDFALL. HOWEVER...GUSTAV IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW GUSTAV AS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC TO NORTHERN FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL\r\nLEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AS GUSTAV APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE UKMET/HWRF...WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE.\r\nTHESE TWO MODELS ARE SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO FORM OVER TEXAS TO TURN THE\r\nSTORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. GUSTAV\r\nWILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LONGER-TERM...WHICH\r\nCOULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 20.2N  81.3W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 21.2N  82.7W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 22.9N  84.6W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 24.6N  86.4W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 26.5N  88.3W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 29.5N  91.5W   100 KT...NEAR LOUISIANA COAST\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  93.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 31.0N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT...THE STRENGTHENING RATE\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE...ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nREPORTED BY RECON HAS CONTINUED TO FALL THIS MORNING...WITH THE\r\nMOST RECENT VALUE DOWN TO 954 MB.  THE BRIEF TIME GUSTAV WILL SPEND\r\nOVER WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD NOT WEAKEN THE\r\nHURRICANE MUCH...AND ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS\r\nARE CONDUCIVE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT IS GREATEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nPEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER AT 120 KT...VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE MODELS.  DESPITE THE IMPLIED WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72\r\nHOURS DUE TO FORECAST LANDFALL...NO DRAMATIC WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nWHILE GUSTAV REMAINS OVER THE GULF...AND IT COULD REACH THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nGUSTAV JOGGED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT IS NOT\r\nYET CLEAR IF IT HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...BUT THE\r\nLONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/12.  THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS PUSHING GUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD ARE GENERALLY WELL-DEFINED\r\nAND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AS A\r\nSTRONG BUT DISTANT RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES.  NONE OF\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED THEIR TRACK SOLUTION COMPARED\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE CONSENSUS HAS REMAINED IN PLACE.  \r\nTHE SPREAD AT 3-5 DAYS IS STILL SUBSTANTIAL...HOWEVER...WITH SOME\r\nMODELS INCLUDING THE UKMET AND HWRF CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD JUST BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE IN TAKING GUSTAV INLAND IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS...AND IS\r\nJUST EDGED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...IN PART TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE RECENT RIGHT OF TRACK MOTION.  REGARDLESS OF THE DETAILS IN THE\r\nTRACK...GUSTAV WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE\r\nLONGER-TERM...WHICH COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE FLOODING THREAT OVER\r\nLOUISIANA AND TEXAS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 21.2N  82.1W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W   105 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.4W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N  89.2W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  92.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 31.5N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-08-30 18:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nSO MUCH FOR A SLOWDOWN IN THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF GUSTAV. \r\nYESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE CONVEYED THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WAS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS IS A LITTLE MORE\r\nTHAN WHAT WE HAD IN MIND IN SUCH A SHORT TIME.  THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nREACHED CATEGORY FOUR STATUS WITH AN INTENSITY OF 125 KT...HAVING\r\nBEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO.  THE MAXIMUM\r\nSURFACE WIND VALUE IS BASED ON A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF 141\r\nKT...SINCE THE 90 PERCENT ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE USUALLY WORKS\r\nRATHER WELL FOR INTENSIFYING MAJOR HURRICANES.  THE AIRCRAFT FIXES\r\nINDICATE THAT A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12...RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK.  NO CHANGES TO THE 1500 UTC FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN\r\nMADE...BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH\r\n96 HOURS.  GUSTAV COULD INTENSIFY SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS OVER WATER...AND ONE CANNOT RULE OUT CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY\r\nBEFORE CROSSING CUBA.  THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A PEAK AT 140\r\nKT...CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY...OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN\r\nHEAT CONTENT WILL STILL BE HIGH...FOLLOWED BY A VERY GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHERE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS LESS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1800Z 21.6N  82.5W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W   135 KT...OVER WESTERN CUBA\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 24.3N  85.4W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 26.0N  87.3W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 27.8N  89.2W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  92.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 31.5N  94.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE EYE OF GUSTAV HAD BEEN HUGGING THE EASTERN COAST\r\nOF THE ISLE OF YOUTH EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS NOW OVER WATER\r\nIN BETWEEN THAT ISLAND AND MAINLAND WESTERN CUBA.  AIRCRAFT FIXES\r\nCONTINUE TO COME IN JUST ABOUT RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS GUSTAV HAS BEEN WOBBLING\r\nSLIGHTLY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS RELATIVELY\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED AT 315/13...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE VARIOUS MODELS HAVE COME INTO\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON A TRACK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE HWRF...UKMET...AND\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST A STALL JUST OFFSHORE...HAVE\r\nCOME INTO THE FOLD WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF...RESULTING IN A\r\nCONSENSUS TRACK THAT FALLS VERY CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THIS AGREEMENT HAS ALSO RESULTED...HOWEVER...IN A\r\nCONSENSUS TRACK THAT REACHES THE COAST A LITTLE FASTER.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS ALMOST EXACTLY ALONG THE PATH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT MAINTAINS THE CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED ALL THE WAY\r\nTO THE COAST...ARRIVING THERE A LITTLE SOONER THAN BEFORE.  WHILE\r\nTHERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE PATH AND SPEED OF THE\r\nTRACK THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE MODEL SPREAD IS STILL\r\nSUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO SERVE AS A REMINDER THAT WE CANNOT SPECIFY\r\nEXACTLY WHERE OR WHEN THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL MAKE FINAL\r\nLANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...ALL OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO WEAKENING\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS...WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...BY FORECASTING A DRAMATIC SLOWING OF\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OVER LOUISIANA AND EASTERN TEXAS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\n \r\nTHE RECON CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO STEADILY FALL...WITH\r\nTHE MOST RECENT VALUE BEING 942 MB.  A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 143 KT\r\nAT 700 MB WAS JUST REPORTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WHICH\r\nSUPPORTS INCREASING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY TO 130 KT.  MODEST\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS COULD LEAD TO\r\nCATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY AS GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN CUBA...BUT THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY CALL FOR CATEGORY FIVE STATUS\r\nUNTIL 24 HOURS.  AFTER DEPARTING CUBA...THE HURRICANE WILL PASS\r\nOVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BECOME\r\nPROHIBITIVELY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MAJOR HURRICANE ALL THE WAY TO FINAL\r\nLANDFALL.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND ALSO\r\nNOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF.\r\n \r\nTHE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE\r\nIN BOTH TEXT AND GRAPHICAL FORMATS...DEPICT A RELATIVELY SIMILAR\r\nRISK OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT INDIVIDUAL LOCATIONS ALONG A WIDE\r\nSTRETCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  GIVEN THAT THESE VALUES ARE\r\nSUFFICIENTLY HIGH...AND CONSIDERING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE COAST...IT IS TIME TO ISSUE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCHES ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 22.1N  82.9W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 23.4N  84.4W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 25.3N  86.5W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 27.2N  88.6W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 29.0N  90.7W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  93.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  94.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N  96.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF GUSTAV CROSSED WESTERN CUBA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND IS NOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nHURRICANE WEAKENED DURING PASSAGE OVER LAND...WITH THE EYE BECOMING\r\nCLOUD FILLED AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE IN\r\nBOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 120 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL ARRIVE IN THE STORM ABOUT 06Z TO DETERMINE THE\r\nACTUAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKT...WITH 320/13 USED IN THIS PACKAGE.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING...WITH GUSTAV BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THEN BY\r\nAN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...CALLING FOR\r\nGUSTAV TO TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MAKE LANDFALL IN\r\nSOUTHEASTERN OR SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW MUCH\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF GUSTAV...WITH A\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST AT THAT\r\nTIME CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\n12Z UKMET FORECASTS GUSTAV TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nOCCURRED DESPITE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE PRESENCE OF\r\nTHIS SHEAR IS SUPPORTED BY RADAR DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...\r\nWHICH CURRENTLY SHOWS A WEAK SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND LITTLE\r\nPRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE EYEWALL.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THE\r\nSHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH SOME DURING THE NEXT 18 HR...THEN INCREASE\r\nAGAIN AS GUSTAV MOVES BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  ON THE OCEAN SIDE...GUSTAV IS\r\nFORECAST TO PASS OVER THE LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nTHEN POSSIBLY PASS OVER A COUPLE OF COLD EDDIES NORTH OF 26N.  ALL\r\nGUIDANCE FORECAST RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135 KT IN 24\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO SHEAR AND\r\nLOWER HEAT CONTENT...THEN FASTER WEAKENING OVER LAND.  DUE TO THE\r\nVARIOUS FACTORS...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS FOR THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 23.1N  83.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 24.6N  85.3W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 26.5N  87.4W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 28.3N  89.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 29.8N  91.2W   120 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 31.5N  93.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 32.5N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 32.5N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n\r\nAPPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA TOOK MORE OF A TOLL\r\nON THE HURRICANE THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER SHOW THAT GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED WITH MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 112 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 98 KT...AND A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRM THIS WEAKENING\r\nTREND AS THE EYE NO LONGER VISIBLE. AIRCRAFT AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS\r\nALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS EXPANDED TO AROUND 25 N MI IN\r\nDIAMETER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT...AND GUSTAV\r\nMAY EVEN BE A LITTLE WEAKER FOR THE MOMENT. HOWEVER THIS WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE HURRICANE TRAVERSES THE\r\nRELATIVELY HIGH HEAT CONTENT OF THE GULF LOOP CURRENT. BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS...THE HEAT CONTENT DECREASES AND MOST MODELS INCREASE THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR GUSTAV DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF. IN ADDITION...NONE OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOW\r\nSIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING OF GUSTAV...ALTHOUGH ADMITTEDLY THE\r\nSKILL OF THESE MODELS IS RATHER LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE EARLIER ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS GUSTAV\r\nAS A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nBASED UPON AIRCRAFT DATA AND RADAR FIXES FROM KEY WEST...GUSTAV IS\r\nMOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND ITS MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n320/14.  THE LARGE-SCALE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO BE\r\nWELL-DEFINED...WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE\r\nHURRICANE.  A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED AS GUSTAV\r\nNEARS THE COAST DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COMING UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL TRACK FORECAST BUT CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nSOME MINOR DISCREPANCIES IN FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT TRACK OF GUSTAV AS THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND\r\nSIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THIS FORECAST...IT IS NOW TIME TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING\r\nFOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 24.2N  85.0W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 25.6N  86.3W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 27.5N  88.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 29.1N  90.4W   115 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 30.5N  92.2W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 31.7N  93.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  94.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n\r\nGUSTAV CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nTHIS MORNING.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY ASYMMETRIC...WITH THE\r\nCOLD TOPS DUE MAINLY TO ONE HOT TOWER IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL. \r\nWHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS APPARENT...IT IS DISPLACED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED CENTER.  THE LATEST REPORT FROM\r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATES THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO\r\n962 MB...ALONG WITH AN ELLIPTICAL 30 BY 20 N MI WIDE EYE OPEN TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT...AND THIS\r\nMIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/15.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER\r\nGUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW\r\nGUIDANCE RUNS SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN AFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE LOUISIANA COAST.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SHIFT YET...AND THUS LIES NEAR\r\nTHE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTRACK THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE IS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT\r\nBETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO\r\nTHE WESTERLIES...STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR TURN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD.  SINCE THIS KIND OF SPREAD FREQUENTLY PRECEDES SLOW\r\nMOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nAFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nAT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN RECORD...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS THAT GUSTAV REMAINS IN 15 TO 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR....AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST AT\r\nLEAST SOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT RAGGED STORM STRUCTURE\r\nAND THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE STORM IN WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY...SUGGESTS ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW. \r\nADDITIONALLY..GUSTAV IS OVER A WARM EDDY IN THE LOOP CURRENT\r\nNOW...AND SHOULD PASS OVER WATERS WITH LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT\r\nBETWEEN NOW AND LANDFALL.  THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS\r\nBY FORECASTING MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHR...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KT AND THE\r\nOTHER MODELS ABOUT 110 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR GUSTAV TO RE-INTENSIFY TO 115 KT IN 12 TO 24 HR...AND\r\nMAKE LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. \r\nGUSTAV SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 25.3N  86.0W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 27.0N  87.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 28.6N  89.7W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 30.0N  91.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 31.1N  93.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 32.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 32.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 32.0N  95.9W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT GUSTAV IS GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A HINT OF\r\nAN EYE RETURNING.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER HAS FALLEN TO 957 MB.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 105 KT WHILE\r\nTHE MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE 93 KT.  ALSO...THE CONVECTION...WHILE\r\nVIGOROUS...IS STILL RATHER ASYMMETRIC AROUND THE 30 NM WIDE EYE\r\nTHAT IS OPEN TO THE SE.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 315 AND 320 DEGREES AT 15-16\r\nKT...WITH 320/16 BEING THE ADVISORY MOTION.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WITH A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EXPECTED TO STEER\r\nGUSTAV NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE NEW\r\nGUIDANCE RUNS...MOST NOTABLY THE HWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT LEFT TURN\r\nAFTER 12 HR WITH A LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE LANDFALL POINT ON THE\r\nLOUISIANA COAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND SINCE IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SOME ADDITIONAL SMALL SHIFTS MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY LATER.  AFTER 48-72 HR...THERE REMAINS MAJOR DISAGREEMENT\r\nBETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON WHETHER GUSTAV WILL RECURVE INTO\r\nTHE WESTERLIES...SHEAR APART AND STALL OVER LOUISIANA OR TEXAS...OR\r\nTURN SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 72 HR FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHEAR-APART-AND-STALL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR GUSTAV TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\nGUSTAV REMAINS IN ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...WITH A LOT OF\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SOUTH AND WEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THE EYE HAS MOVED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP WARM WATER\r\nOF THE LOOP CURRENT...AND THAT COMBINED WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF\r\nCONTINUED SHEAR REDUCES THE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST ABOUT 10 KT OF STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE\r\nFALLING PRESSURES AND THE COLD CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO 110 KT BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH GUSTAV\r\nMAKING LANDFALL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  GUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER\r\nLANDFALL AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 26.4N  87.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 27.9N  88.9W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 29.4N  90.9W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 30.7N  92.7W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.5N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 32.0N  95.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 32.0N  96.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 32.0N  96.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV BECAME MORE SYMMETRIC EARLIER\r\nIN THE EVENING AND WAS GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF INCREASING\r\nORGANIZATION. OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN\r\nSLIGHT WARMING OF THE CORE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH HAD BEEN FALLING...SEEMS TO HAVE\r\nSTABILIZED WITH THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATE BEING 954 MB. FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nAND SFMR DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL\r\nAROUND 100 KT...WITH A PEAK SMFR WIND OF 100 KT JUST OBSERVED A FEW\r\nMINUTES AGO...AND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 114 KT. THE SFMR DATA\r\nALSO INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED...\r\nSPREADING OUT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER A LARGER AREA.  DROPSONDE\r\nDATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT ALSO SHOW SOME DRIER AIR\r\nBETWEEN 300 AND 500 MB WORKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CENTER OF GUSTAV\r\nFROM THE SOUTH.  THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LANDFALL INTENSITY OF\r\nGUSTAV WILL LIKELY BE NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM ITS CURRENT CATEGORY\r\nTHREE STRENGTH.  NONE OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AIDS...THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...SHIPS...AND LGEM SHOW MUCH CHANGE IN THE REMAINING\r\nTIME GUSTAV HAS OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/14.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY THAT SHOWS GUSTAV MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nVERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT RIGHT ON TOP OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.  AFTER THAT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY.  AS BEFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE MOTION AFTER 72 HOURS IN THE EXPECTATION\r\nTHAT GUSTAV WILL SHEAR OFF...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 27.3N  88.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 28.6N  89.9W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 30.1N  91.9W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 31.1N  93.3W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 31.8N  94.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 32.0N  95.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 32.0N  95.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  96.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":31,"Date":"2008-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT GUSTAV IS NOT STRENGTHENING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN\r\nSLIGHTLY AND...BASED ON RECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND\r\nMEASUREMENTS...100 KT IS A GENEROUS ESTIMATE FOR THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY.  WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE WALL IS OPEN\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...PERHAPS DUE TO THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE SOUTH THAT WAS DISCUSSED\r\nEARLIER.  IN FACT...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS DID NOT REPORT\r\nAN EYEWALL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS A DRY INTRUSION AND\r\nA RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  ALSO THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT MORE\r\nRAGGED ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES.  BASED ON CURRENT\r\nTRENDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST...NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nGUSTAV CONTINUES MOVING BRISKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...315/14. THE\r\nHURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE/HIGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO AND THEREFORE GUSTAV'S FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW\r\nLATER TODAY AND TOMORROW...I.E. AFTER THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES ILL-DEFINED LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND THE TRACK MODELS BECOME HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  IF GUSTAV\r\nREMAINED A VERTICALLY-COHERENT CYCLONE IT WOULD PROBABLY RESPOND TO\r\nAN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nPART OF GUSTAV WILL BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN THE EAST TEXAS AREA.  THAT IS\r\nBASICALLY WHAT WE ARE INDICATING IN THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nWHICH SHOWS GUSTAV OR ITS REMNANTS SLOWING TO A CRAWL IN DAYS 3 TO\r\n5.  SUCH SLOW MOTION WOULD EXACERBATE THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND\r\nINLAND FLOODING.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 28.4N  89.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 29.5N  91.1W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 30.7N  92.8W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 31.4N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 31.8N  94.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 32.0N  96.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 32.0N  96.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":32,"Date":"2008-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GUSTAV MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR\r\nCOCODRIE ABOUT 1430 UTC.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE\r\nBECAME BETTER DEFINED ON RADAR.  HOWEVER...WIND DATA FROM AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT ALONG WITH DOPPLER RADAR WINDS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT GUSTAV WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND\r\nTHIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/13.  GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...SO THE 72-120 HR PART\r\nOF THE TRACK IS CHANGED FROM A WESTWARD DRIFT TO A NORTHWARD DRIFT.\r\n\r\nGUSTAV SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING\r\nWILL LIKELY BE SLOW AT FIRST AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE SOUTH\r\nLOUISIANA MARSHES.  A FASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN 6-12 HR AS\r\nTHE CENTER REACHES MORE SOLID GROUND.  AFTER 48 HR...GUSTAV IS\r\nLIKELY TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER BEHIND. \r\nTHUS...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72\r\nHR.\r\n\r\nTHE THREAT OF HIGH STORM SURGE WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE LOUISIANA\r\nCOAST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS...AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS WILL\r\nCONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 29.2N  90.8W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 30.3N  92.4W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 31.3N  93.8W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 31.9N  94.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 32.4N  95.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 33.5N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 34.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gustav","Adv":33,"Date":"2008-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF GUSTAV IS MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA JUST\r\nNORTH OF LAFAYETTE.  WSR-88D DATA FROM SLIDELL AND LAKE CHARLES\r\nSHOW THAT THE EYE SEEN AT LANDFALL HAS FILLED AND BEEN REPLACED BY\r\nA SOLID RAIN MASS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT DOPPLER WINDS OF 90-100 KT ALOFT SUGGESTS\r\nTHERE SURFACE WINDS ARE PROBABLY NEAR 70 KT.  GUSTAV IS NOW FAR\r\nENOUGH INLAND THAT IT SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN...AND IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE\r\nTUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND A REMNANT LOW BY THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/14.  GUSTAV IS BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 36 HR...WITH MORE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOWN THEREAFTER AS THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THEIR PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS.\r\n \r\nSTORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE COASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND\r\nMISSISSIPPI WILL BE VERY SLOW TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  THE\r\nHEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AS LONG AS GUSTAV KEEPS A VIABLE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 30.4N  92.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 31.2N  93.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 32.1N  94.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 32.6N  94.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 33.0N  95.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 34.0N  95.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 35.0N  95.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 36.0N  94.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gustav","Adv":34,"Date":"2008-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR PRESENTATION OF GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS\r\nEVENING AS THE STORM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER LOUISIANA.  RECENT\r\nMAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES FROM THE LAKE CHARLES RADAR HAVE\r\nBEEN AROUND 65-70 KT AT ABOUT 4500 FT.  THIS EQUATES TO ABOUT\r\n50 KT AT THE SURFACE...THEREFORE GUSTAV IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  GUSTAV SHOULD CONTINUE WEAKENING AND IT IS\r\nEXPECTED THAT IT WILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON TUESDAY...\r\nAND A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION OF GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN MORE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE\r\nMORE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 AND 4.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE GUSTAV'S CIRCULATION WILL BECOME\r\nELONGATED AS IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS\r\nGUSTAV TO BECOME MERGE WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ABOUT 5\r\nDAYS...IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.\r\n \r\nINDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF COAST IS BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE.  THE MAIN THREAT FROM GUSTAV\r\nNOW SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 31.1N  92.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 32.0N  93.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 32.7N  94.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 33.1N  95.2W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 33.7N  95.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 35.0N  95.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 36.0N  95.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gustav","Adv":35,"Date":"2008-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER LOUISIANA INDICATE THAT GUSTAV HAS\r\nWEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN\r\nDOWN BUT AT A MORE GRADUAL RATE..IN GENERAL ACCORDANCE WITH THE\r\nEXPONENTIAL INLAND DECAY MODEL.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GUSTAV\r\nOR ITS REMNANTS WILL INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND MERGE WITH\r\nTHAT FEATURE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THEREFORE THE FORECAST SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION BY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 315/9.  ADDITIONAL DECELERATION IS LIKELY\r\nAS THE STEERING CURRENT WEAKENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS MID-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW BEGINS TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nASIDE FROM SEVERE LOCAL STORMS...THE THREAT FROM GUSTAV HAS SHIFTED\r\nTO HEAVY RAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED INLAND FLOODING.  THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON GUSTAV FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED\r\nBY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nTCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 AM CDT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 31.7N  93.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 32.4N  94.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 33.0N  94.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 33.5N  95.2W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 34.1N  95.2W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 35.0N  94.0W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 35.5N  92.5W    20 KT...INLAND...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTLY OF CONVECTION..NUMEROUS \r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT THIS TIME BUT I WOULD\r\nRATHER WAIT TO SEE IF THE DEEP CONVECTION HOLDS FOR WHILE TO CALL IT\r\nA TROPICAL STORM...PROBABLY IN THE NEXT ADVISORY. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 30 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH AND THE\r\nLOW SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A\r\nLITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.\r\nTHE\r\nDEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS\r\nBUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREFATER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS\r\nFARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nRATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH.    \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 17.6N  39.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N  41.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N  44.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 20.0N  47.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N  50.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  56.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N  62.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 23.5N  68.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS INCREASED...CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE DISTINCT\r\nAND THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THIS\r\nBASIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IKE WITH AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE WARM OCEAN ALONG ITS PATH\r\nAND THE LOW SHEAR...IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS. THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL AND SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nLOWER THAN THE HWRF. THE LATTER MAKES IKE AN INTENSE HURRICANE\r\nNORTH OF HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nIKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE STORM\r\nIS ALREADY LOCATED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS\r\nBUILDING AND EXPANDING WESTWARD ACCORDING TO MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. THIS PATTERN CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS THE HIGH BUILDS\r\nFARTHER WESTWARD...THE CYCLONE COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST OR EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST . THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. SINCE THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER TIGHT...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE\r\nREMAINS RELATIVELY HIGH.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 17.7N  40.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.0N  42.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N  45.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.5N  48.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  51.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.5N  58.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  64.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N  69.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE BANDING FEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE\r\nHAS ERODED A BIT...PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. \r\nREGARDLESS...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT\r\nAS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY MODELS GENERALLY\r\nAGREE ON A CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING RATE WITH TIME...AND SUGGEST\r\nTHAT IKE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THERE IS\r\nHOWEVER A LITTLE DIVERGENCE IN WHAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS.  BOTH THE GFDL AND THE HWRF INTENSIFY IKE INTO A\r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE WEAKENING\r\nDUE TO INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 275/12...WITHIN IN THE DEEP\r\nLAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. \r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UKMET IS THE ONLY\r\nGLOBAL MODEL OUTSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND INDICATES A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5...WHILE THE OTHER GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES ON A WESTWARD MOTION.  THE UKMET TRACK IS MORE THAN\r\nLIKELY DUE TO A DIFFERENCE IN THE POSITION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE CENTER AND A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. CREATED BY A\r\nSLOWER MOVING HURRICANE HANNA. ACCORDINGLY...THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nWEIGHED MORE HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE MODELS THAT SUGGEST A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 18.0N  41.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N  43.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N  46.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N  49.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.8N  52.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N  59.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 22.0N  65.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING WITH \r\nSUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE BANDING EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n3.0 OR 45 KT...WHICH IS THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nAN AMSU PASS AT 0020Z PROVIDED SOME CONFIDENCE IN ESTIMATING A TRACK\r\nAT 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING BRISKLY\r\nOFF TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP\r\nLAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  AS THE CUTOFF LOW CURENTLY\r\nSOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA KICKS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE SHOULD RETROGRADE TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A\r\nMOTION WESTWARD ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC ALONG ABOUT\r\n20N WOULD BE SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL...BUT IS SUPPORTED BY OUR MOST\r\nRELIABLE TRACK MODELS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN A RELATIVELY\r\nTIGHT CLUSTER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. \r\nTHIS TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE MORE NORTHERLY PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.  IN THE NEAR\r\nTERM...IKE IS IN A CONDUCIVE DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT...BUT THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE\r\nNOT AS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY WARM SSTS AND A\r\nPOCKET OF LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR TO ITS SOUTH.  IN THE LONGER TERM...THE\r\nOCEAN TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO 29C...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINCREASE AS FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW EAST OF IKE AND THE UPPER\r\nRIDGE NORTHWEST OF IKE IS PREDICTED TO PRODUCE 30 KT\r\nNORTHEASTERLIES.  GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...WHICH REFLECTS THE CONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS\r\nCALLING FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nWHICH SUGGEST A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nNEARLY THE SAME AS PROVIDED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 18.6N  43.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N  45.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N  48.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.2N  51.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.8N  54.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 21.5N  60.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N  72.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IKE HAS A COMPACT AND\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS\r\nPRIMARILY BEEN LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 0847 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nHAS EXPANDED A BIT...AND A FEW 50-55 KT BARBS WERE LOCATED WITHIN\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK OF\r\nIKE. MOST MODELS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN...ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nWITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS THEN ONLY SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TO\r\nDAY 5. IN FACT...WITH A LATITUDINAL SPREAD OF ONLY 5 DEGREES AT DAY\r\n5...WE COULDN'T HAVE ASKED FOR BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\nTHE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED WITH AN AVERAGE MOTION OF\r\n280/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nAS IKE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT WILL MOVE WEST IN TANDEM\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE. SOME OF THE MODELS... PARTICULARLY THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF...SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD BEND AND BRING IKE VERY CLOSE TO OR\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA. HOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE MODELS BRING IKE TO A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE...AND SINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES\r\nNOT CALL FOR SUCH STRENGTHENING...I PREFER TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT INDICATES THAT RELATIVELY DRY\r\nAIR ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDS IKE. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...IT IS PROBABLY MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE DRY AIR AND WILL\r\nPROBABLY REMAIN SO UNTIL IT CAN DEVELOP JUST ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO ISOLATE ITSELF. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE SYSTEM IN 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF APPARENTLY IGNORE SUCH SHEAR AND FORECAST IKE TO\r\nBE A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. WHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS\r\nA POSSIBILITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT\r\nAS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES HISPANIOLA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 18.9N  45.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N  47.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.9N  50.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  53.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  56.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N  62.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  68.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N  74.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING CONVECTIVELY ASYMMETRIC THIS MORNING...IKE HAS\r\nWRAPPED A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER\r\nEXCEPT FOR SMALL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT. CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE.\r\n \r\nIKE CONTINUES TO CHUG ALONG WITHIN THE TRADES AT 280/15. THE\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IKE...STEERING\r\nIT WESTWARD...IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC AND\r\nRESULT IN VERY LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IN THE COMING DAYS. ALTHOUGH\r\nMOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...THE\r\nMOST NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THIS MORNING IS THE TRACK OF THE UKMET...\r\nWHICH CURVES IKE TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR 65W IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKER\r\nWEST ATLANTIC RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISREGARDS THE UKMET AND\r\nFOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...SHOWING A SLIGHT\r\nSOUTH-OF-DUE-WEST MOTION IN ABOUT 48-72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE EXACT STEERING REGIME AT DAY 5 REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RECONCILES THIS BY SHOWING A MORE OR LESS\r\nWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGREEABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM...\r\nBRINGING IKE TO A HURRICANE WITHIN ABOUT 12 HOURS. BEYOND\r\nTHAT...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE A BIT RESERVED AND SHOW\r\nPEAK INTENSITIES OF 70-80 KT BEFORE MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SETS\r\nIN BY 48 HOURS. THE HWRF MODEL IS WELL ABOVE ALL THE OTHER GUIDANCE\r\nAND IN GENERAL ITS SOLUTION IS NOT COUNTED AT THIS TIME.\r\nSTILL...THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE REASON THAT INTENSIFICATION\r\nSHOULD NOT OCCUR SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...BUT IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AND NEAR THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 19.2N  46.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N  48.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.3N  51.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N  55.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.6N  57.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.0N  63.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N  69.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  75.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE OUTFLOW\r\nIS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...IKE LACKS AN INNER CORE\r\nAND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND MAINLY\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT SHOW\r\nANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 45 KNOTS BUT DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS..AND THIS NUMBER IS USED FOR THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR A\r\nDAY OR SO...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND IKE COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE ANYTIME SOON.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS... A STRONG\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND COULD DELAY THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT AS\r\nNEGATIVE AS WESTERLY SHEAR FOR A CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY. ALTHOUGH\r\nBOTH GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IKE AN INTENSE CYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE BAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE\r\nMODERATE...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nIKE IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS EXPAND AND\r\nBUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TRACK. THE RIDGE BECOMES SO STRONG BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD THAT MODELS TURN IKE ON A SLIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nTRACK. THIS SHIFT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...WHICH MOVES IKE WITH A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED PLACING THE CYCLONE IN THE SOUTH/CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN FIVE\r\nDAYS. THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 19.9N  47.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N  50.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 21.0N  53.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.0N  56.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N  59.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 22.5N  64.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  70.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 22.1N  76.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nIKE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION\r\nAND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIRLY STRONG AROUND THE\r\nSTORM...WITH AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED\r\nINNER CORE AND...UNTIL THIS INNER CORE BECOMES ESTABLISHED...\r\nSTRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW.  HOWEVER...ONCE AN EYEWALL BECOMES\r\nDEFINED THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION SHOULD INCREASE.  THE ONLY\r\nOBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AROUND 48 HOURS AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THIS IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF MUCH OF OUR NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER\r\nHURRICANE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME SLIGHT ACCELERATION AND THE LATEST GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES REQUIRE A BIT OF A NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK.  INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/16.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE CONTINUES TO PUSH THE STORM\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A\r\nBUILDING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF IKE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND THIS WOULD FORCE A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nLEFT.  HOWEVER THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL TURN.  THE GFDL AND DEEP-LAYER BAM ARE THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST AND BRING IKE OVER HISPANIOLA WHEREAS THE U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH IS ALSO A CREDIBLE MODEL...TAKES THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MUCH HIGHER LATITUDES.  ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE RECENT\r\nTRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND LIES NEAR THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 20.6N  49.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 21.3N  52.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 22.2N  55.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.8N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.2N  60.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 23.0N  66.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  71.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nIKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO\r\nFROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING...WE MIGHT SEE AN\r\nEYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0...BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS\r\nARE A LITTLE LOWER...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW.  IN\r\nANY CASE...IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE\r\nONE LATER TODAY.  THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET\r\nWARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR\r\n29 CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFIVE-DAY PERIOD.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IKE\r\nMIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH\r\nBEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST\r\nANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST\r\nSTRENGTHENING...UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST...ESCAPES THE\r\nSHEAR...AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE\r\nWITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS.\r\n\r\nIKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nMODELS FORECAST IKE TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THAT\r\nRIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL RUN INTO A RIDGE BUILDING\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT\r\nTHIS PATTERN WILL FORCE IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY\r\nWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT FEATURE...BUT THEY\r\nDO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT LATITUDE OR THE SPEED OF THAT WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE\r\nFIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...BUT\r\nOTHERWISE THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR\r\nA LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.8N  51.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.7N  53.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  59.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  62.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.5N  67.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  71.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N  75.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nAS ANTICIPATED...IKE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND ALL\r\nSATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES SAY IT HAS BECOME A HURRICANE.  SINCE THE\r\n1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 KT...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN\r\nLATE-DAY VISIBLE IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS INTENSIFYING WITHIN A COCOON OF NEARLY ZERO VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...IN BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATING THE EASTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE BASIN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHERLIES ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE EASTERN TROUGH ARE\r\nSTARTING TO JUST SLIGHTLY RESTRICT IKE'S OUTFLOW.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FROM THE EAST...BUT PROBABLY NOT\r\nQUICKLY ENOUGH TO HALT IKE'S INTENSIFICATION TREND IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS AN INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY\r\nPEAK AT 24 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE SHEAR...FOLLOWED BY\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING UNTIL THE SHEAR ABATES AFTER IKE GETS FARTHER\r\nWEST.  BY THAT TIME...IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...OCEAN AND ATMOSPHERIC\r\nFACTORS BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF...FORECAST A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAYS\r\n4 AND 5...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LONG-RANGE\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE INCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE\r\nINDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE THAT IKE WILL\r\nBE A MAJOR HURRICANE FOUR AND FIVE DAYS FROM NOW.  IF IKE IS WEAKER\r\nTHAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5...THEN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM WILL TURN OUT TO BE\r\nMORE ACCURATE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/16.  AS\r\nTHE LARGE AND DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST\r\nU.S. COAST DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WILL PUSH IKE GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  UNDULATIONS IN THE TRACK ARE\r\nLIKELY THOUGH.  IKE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE FORMS...AFTER WHICH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWILL GRADUALLY ROUND THAT RIDGE.  THE BIG QUESTION AT LONGER RANGES\r\nIS IF AND WHEN IKE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT\r\nRIDGE...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER IKE DIRECTLY AFFECTS ANY LAND\r\nAREAS.  THE MODELS DO NOT PROVIDE AN UNANIMOUS ANSWER...WHICH IS\r\nNOT SURPRISING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.  ALL OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE\r\nBEGINNINGS OF A MOTION NORTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS TOO\r\nEARLY TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE START OF RECURVATURE...OR IF\r\nENOUGH RIDGING WILL REMAIN BEYOND DAY 5 TO KEEP IKE MOVING\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 21.6N  52.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.6N  55.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N  57.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N  60.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.8N  63.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.5N  68.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-09-04 00:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n800 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF IKE.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND HAS\r\nDEVELOPED AN EYE THAT IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. \r\nSPECIAL CLASSIFICATION PERFORMED BY TAFB AND SAB BOTH YIELD\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 5.5.  IN FACT...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES\r\nWERE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN\r\nRUNNING BETWEEN ABOUT 6.0-6.5 DURING THE LAST 2-3 HOURS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INCREASED TO 100 KT...MAKING IKE A\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...BUT AS WITH ALL INTENSE HURRICANES...SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED.  \r\n\r\nNO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES\r\nWERE REQUIRED TO THE WIND RADII.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0000Z 21.7N  53.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.6N  55.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N  57.9W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 24.3N  60.4W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 23.8N  63.1W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 22.5N  68.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.5N  76.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nIKE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS EVENING.  AN EYE BECAME APPARENT IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY AFTER 2100 UTC.  SINCE THAT\r\nTIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT WITH A RING OF VERY COLD\r\nCLOUDS TOPS SURROUNDING IT.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE\r\nT6.0 AND RAW ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AVERAGED T6.2 SINCE\r\n2045 UTC.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET \r\nAT 115 KT...MAKING IKE A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THIS\r\nWILL LARGELY BE CONTROLLED BY EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  HOWEVER \r\nBOTH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE INCREASING\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nPREDICT HOW AN INTENSE HURRICANE LIKE IKE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS\r\nSHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BETWEEN\r\n24-72 HOURS DUE TO THE SHEAR...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nDECREASE SO RE-STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nDURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE\r\nMODELS UNANIMOUSLY RESPOND BY TURNING IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nLINGERING QUESTION THAT REMAINS AT THE LONGER RANGE IS WHEN IKE \r\nWILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE GFDL IS ON\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WITH A TRACK NEAR HISPANIOLA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA...WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW A POSITION TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN\r\nTHESE POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nHWRF...THE 12Z ECMWF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 22.1N  54.1W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.2W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N  58.7W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 24.3N  61.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 23.8N  63.6W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  68.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  72.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N  75.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IKE HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER...WITH\r\nTHE EYE EMBEDDED IN EVEN COLDER CLOUD TOPS THAN BEFORE.  THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 6.5 WHICH SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF\r\n125 KT...AND THIS IS USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY.  IN SUCH\r\nINTENSE HURRICANES...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER-CORE\r\nEVOLUTIONS SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO\r\nPREDICT.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS OVER 30 KT OF VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR ON IKE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS\r\nLARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCE SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...\r\nAND THAT IS WHAT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST. \r\nLATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLE\r\nAS THE SHEAR WEAKENS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE FAVORABLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE BUT\r\nIT REFLECTS OUR LACK OF SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINTENSITY IN 3-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nIKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR AROUND 290/15.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING. \r\nA DEEP-LAYER HIGH IS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS\r\nWOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE HEADING OF IKE TO BEND WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHAT IKE WILL HAVE PASSED THE CENTER OF THE HIGH...AND TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE BIG QUESTIONS IS HOW THE\r\nHURRICANE RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AROUND DAY 5.  LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS\r\nTRACK MODELS IN THIS TIME FRAME...WE SEE THAT THE ECMWF IS THE\r\nWESTERNMOST AND THE GFS IS THE NORTHEASTERNMOST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nECMWF.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS\r\nSTILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY\r\nTHIS HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 22.7N  55.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 23.5N  57.7W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 24.0N  60.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 24.0N  62.6W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 23.4N  64.9W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  69.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N  73.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 25.0N  76.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nIKE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD\r\nTEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW\r\nASYMMETRIC DUE TO SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.\r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE COME DOWN A\r\nLITTLE BIT SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 120 KT.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS UNANIMOUSLY INCREASE THE SHEAR OVER IKE AND KEEP STRONG\r\nNORTHEASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION...INNER-\r\nCORE EYEWALL CYCLES COULD OCCUR...WHICH COULD WEAKEN IKE AS WELL.\r\nIN THE LONGER-TERM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK\r\nOF IKE...THE HURRICANE COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THAT HAVE BEEN STIRRED UP BY HANNA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS\r\nIKE AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nIKE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AT ABOUT 290/14...A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST SEEMS PROBABLE AS A HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nIKE. THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH IS THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR FIRST\r\nPART OF THIS FORECAST WITH THE MODELS BECOMING INCREASINGLY\r\nDIVERGENT. THE MODELS HAVE SPLIT INTO TWO GENERAL CAMPS THIS\r\nMORNING. THE UKMET/GFS/HWRF ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE\r\nLATITUDE INITIALLY...THEN SHOW LESS OF A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...\r\nCOMPRISED OF THE NOGAPS/ECMWF/GFDN/GFDL...SHOW A FASTER TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SUGGEST MORE OF A THREAT TO THE\r\nBAHAMAS. WITH CREDIBLE MODELS IN EACH GROUP...IT IS PROBABLY BEST\r\nTO STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A\r\nBIAS-CORRECTED GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN 4- AND 5-DAY TRACK FORECASTS...IT IS\r\nSTILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LAND AREAS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY\r\nTHIS HURRICANE.  HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS\r\nAND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD BE MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF\r\nIKE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 23.2N  57.0W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  58.9W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  61.3W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 23.6N  63.8W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N  66.7W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 22.5N  71.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N  74.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 25.5N  77.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF IKE DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  IKE IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...THOUGH\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY.  IT IS\r\nINTERESTING THAT WHILE IKE STARTED OUT AS A LARGE SYSTEM...THE\r\nCLOUD CANOPY HAS NOTICEABLY SHRUNK TODAY WITH FEW OUTER BANDS. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 115 KT.  STRONG\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS TO THE\r\nSHEAR BY WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...THOUGH\r\nTHE GFDL/HWRF ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER.  IN A COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND...COMBINED WITH RATHER WARM\r\nWATER WATERS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nRESTRENGTHENING.  THE HURRICANE'S EXACT TRACK IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE\r\nIT COULD BE IMPACTED BY COOLER WATERS UPWELLED BY HANNA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A LITTLE\r\nLOWER FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES THE BAHAMAS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT.  RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nCAUSING A WEST...AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION OF IKE BY LATE\r\nTOMORROW.  THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA WILL\r\nBE CRITICAL TO WHEN AN EVENTUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL\r\nOCCUR IN THE LONG-RANGE.  THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD\r\nSHIFT IN ALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY...WITH THE\r\nGFDL/ECMWF EVEN TAKING THE SYSTEM AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS CUBA.  THE\r\nOTHER MODELS ARE PRETTY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR THROUGH THE\r\nCENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE HWRF MODEL.  \r\n\r\nONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST POSITIONS\r\nBECAUSE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES EXIST AT THOSE TIMES.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 23.6N  58.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 23.9N  60.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 23.7N  62.5W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 23.2N  65.1W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 22.7N  67.7W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  72.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 24.0N  76.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 25.5N  79.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nIKE REMAINS A SMALL...BUT IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\nTHE OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE... BUT THERE IS\r\nSOME EVIDENCE OF THE ANTICIPATED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AS THE\r\nOUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  DESPITE THE EVIDENCE OF SHEAR....THE EYE HAS\r\nCLEARED AND REMAINS SURROUNDED BY -70 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOUD TOPS.\r\nBOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 115 KT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nPREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST...\r\nWHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IS AGAIN BETWEEN \r\nTHE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT CALLS FOR MORE WEAKENING AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH MAINTAIN AN INTENSE HURRICANE.  IN ABOUT 2\r\nDAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IKE TO\r\nRE-STRENGTHEN.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT IKE HAS TURNED WESTWARD THIS EVENING OR 275/12...\r\nHOWEVER A SHORTER TERM MOTION IS ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD.  IKE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF \r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THEREAFTER...IKE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND BEGIN TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nBIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL THE TURN TAKE PLACE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN TWO DISTINCT BRANCHES...THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE\r\nTURN OCCURRING OVER THE BAHAMAS....WHILE THE HWRF...GFDL...AND\r\nECMWF TAKE IKE OVER CUBA OR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  UNTIL IT\r\nBECOME CLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THEM...CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nAS A REMINDER...4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY\r\nLARGE ERRORS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 23.6N  59.5W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 23.6N  61.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.4N  64.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 22.9N  66.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 22.5N  69.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  73.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 24.0N  77.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 26.0N  80.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF IKE HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS DEFINITION...AND CLOUD TOPS\r\nOF THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE COME\r\nDOWN SLIGHTLY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT. \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY JUST RECEIVED FROM THE AMSR-E DOES NOT REVEAL ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT DETERIORATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE...NOR DOES IT\r\nDEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...SO RAPID WEAKENING DOES NOT APPEAR TO\r\nBE ABOUT TO OCCUR.  THAT IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME EROSION OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EYEWALL...AND GIVEN THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME WEAKENING IN THE SHORT TERM. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO LESSEN BEYOND 24 HOURS...AS IKE\r\nREMAINS OVER WATERS NEAR 29 CELSIUS...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS THEN\r\nFORECAST.  THE HWRF FORECASTS IKE TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT DAYS\r\n3-5...BUT THE GFDL DOES NOT SINCE ITS TRACK GOES OVER CUBA. \r\nMEANWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM FORECAST A WEAKER HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE LGEM PREDICTION APPEARS MORE REALISTIC SINCE IT DOES A BETTER\r\nJOB OF TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE EVENTUAL LESSENING OF THE SHEAR. \r\nSINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER WATER THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS...A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND LGEM SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE...AND\r\nIKE IS FORECAST TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LONGER RANGES.  THE ONLY\r\nREASON FOR THE WEAKENING AT THE END IS THAT THE FIVE-DAY POINT IS\r\nOVER LAND...WHICH IS NOT A CERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN DIRECTLY NORTH OF IKE...AS THE\r\nHIGH-LATITUDE TROUGH DEPARTS ATLANTIC CANADA...AND THE HURRICANE IS\r\nNOW HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR 270/13.  NEXT TO DEPART THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC SCENE WILL BE HANNA...AND ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS SAY THAT IN\r\nITS PLACE THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD TO FLORIDA IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  A KEY UNKNOWN FOR THE 3-5 DAY FORECAST IS HOW\r\nSTRONG THAT RIDGE WILL BE AND HOW LONG IT WILL REMAIN INTACT.  IN\r\nGENERAL DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING\r\nTOWARD THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE LONGER...RESULTING IN TRACKS\r\nMAINTAINING THE GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION LONGER AND DELAYING ANY\r\nPOTENTIAL TURN TO THE NORTH.  THAT TREND HAS CONTINUED SOMEWHAT ON\r\nTHIS CYCLE...BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS ONLY SHIFTED WEST SLIGHTLY AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...IS JUST NUDGED TOWARD THE\r\nCONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME...AND GIVES THE MOST WEIGHT TO THE GFS\r\nAND HWRF.  IT CANNOT BE SAID ENOUGH THAT FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS\r\nCAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 23.7N  61.0W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 23.7N  63.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 23.3N  65.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 22.8N  68.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  70.6W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 23.0N  75.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 24.0N  78.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 26.0N  81.0W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO A TAKE A TOLL ON IKE. SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS CLEAR AND THAT MOST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION IS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...A RECENT\r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE. USING A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105 KT...AND\r\nTHIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON TO OBTAIN\r\nA BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. ALMOST\r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DECREASING SHEAR OVER IKE IN ABOUT A\r\nDAY DUE TO A WEAKENING OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY UPPER WINDS. EXCEPT\r\nFOR A SMALL PATCH OF SSTS NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nBAHAMAS...WATERS ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST PATH. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE DUE TO\r\nTHE SHEAR FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS\r\nUPPER-WINDS SLACKEN...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL. IN\r\nA COUPLE DAYS...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT...AND\r\nCONDITIONS LOOK RATHER FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE LONGER-RANGE AS THE HWRF AND\r\nGFDL SHOW A MORE INTENSE HURRICANE. REGARDLESS OF EXACTLY HOW\r\nSTRONG IT IS...ALL SIGNS ARE THAT IKE WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE\r\nFOR DAYS TO COME.\r\n\r\nIKE HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...ABOUT\r\n260/14. THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE WEDGING INTO\r\nBETWEEN IKE AND HANNA. THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...STEERING THE HURRICANE MORE TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN\r\nTHIS WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION COULD MATERIALIZE. GENERALLY THE MODELS\r\nTHAT DRIVE THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/HWRF/GFDL\r\nMODELS...SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO EVENTUALLY\r\nSEND IKE TOWARD CUBA OR THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE\r\nUKMET/GFDN/NOGAPS...ON THE OTHER HAND...SUGGEST THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nMOVE MORE THE WEST AND HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING AFFECTED BY A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AROUND 80W. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS MOVING\r\nWELL SOUTH OF THE LATTER CLUSTER OF MODELS ALREADY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE AND SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nIT CANNOT BE REPEATED ENOUGH THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS\r\nCAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND COMBINED WITH THE FACT THAT THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD IS STILL NOTABLE BEYOND 72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 23.2N  62.7W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 22.9N  64.7W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 22.5N  67.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 22.2N  69.9W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 22.2N  72.5W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N  80.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  82.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS PERFORMED THE FIRST\r\nPENETRATIONS ON IKE AND HAS CONFIRMED THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\nPEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 109 KT WERE RECORDED...ALONG WITH SFMR\r\nWINDS OF 94 KT...PLUS A DROPSONDE SUGGESTED WINDS OF AT LEAST 95\r\nKT.  A CONSENSUS OF ALL DATA SOURCES SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS OF\r\nAROUND 100 KT...SO THIS VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  SOME\r\nWEAKENING COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO PERSISTENT\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY\r\nLATE TOMORROW...AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...PERHAPS\r\nRAPID...BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH\r\nLGEM MODEL EARLY ON...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nTHEREAFTER.  A BIG UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS IKE'S POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH CUBA OR FLORIDA...WHICH COULD\r\nWEAKEN THE HURRICANE MORE THAN SHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF ABOUT 255/13.  A\r\nGRADUAL BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR\r\nSO AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF IKE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.  ALL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST SOME SORT OF WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA IN A\r\nFEW DAYS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THIS WEAKNESS MAY ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TURN\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT ARE SHOWING THE\r\nNORTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...ARE THE ONES\r\nWEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH FASTER.  THE MODELS WITH THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST TRACKS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/GFDL...SHOW A\r\nSTRONGER RIDGE.   OVERALL...MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH...AND I'M GOING TO CONTINUE TO LEAN THE FORECAST IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.  IF CURRENT TRENDS PERSIST...THE FORECAST COULD BE\r\nSHIFTED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OR WEST LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT FOUR- AND FIVE-DAY TRACK FORECASTS CAN\r\nHAVE SIGNIFICANT ERRORS...AND ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 22.9N  64.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  66.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 22.2N  68.9W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 22.1N  71.3W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 22.2N  73.7W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  78.2W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N  81.5W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 25.5N  83.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF IKE BRIEFLY RE-APPEARED AROUND 0000 UTC.  SINCE THAT\r\nTIME AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT HAS BEEN SEEN IN THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY FROM JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE EYE HAD A\r\nSMALL OPENING IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...OTHERWISE THE\r\nINNER-CORE REMAINS WELL INTACT.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN T5.5 AND 6.0...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT...OR AT THE LOWER END OF THOSE\r\nESTIMATES.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IKE AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE\r\nA MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF IKE'S STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nIKE CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KT.\r\nIKE IS BEING STEERED IN THAT DIRECTION DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA SOUTHWESTWARD BETWEEN IKE AND HANNA.\r\nTHIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  AS THIS HAPPENS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nMORE WESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SOLUTION...AND HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTH AND WESTWARD. \r\nIN FACT...MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES HANNA EITHER OVER\r\nOR ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSOUTH AND WESTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS ALSO A\r\nLITTLE FASTER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND SEVERAL OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS ARE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE 4 AND 5 DAY NHC POSITIONS AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD SHIFT COULD BE REQUIRED.\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY DISRUPTING THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  SINCE\r\nIKE...STILL APPEARS TO BE A VERY HEALTHY HURRICANE...LITTLE IF ANY\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nBAHAMAS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE VERY LIGHT\r\nAND THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING WILL BE POSSIBLE LAND\r\nINTERACTION.  WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nCOAST OF CUBA...IT SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING DUE TO LAND. \r\nHOWEVER...IKE COULD BE WEAKER THAN SHOWN BELOW IF THE CENTER\r\nMOVES OVER CUBA...AND CONVERSELY COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER IF IT \r\nREMAINS OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 22.6N  65.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 22.3N  67.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  70.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 21.9N  72.8W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.9N  75.3W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.9N  79.6W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.5N  82.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N  84.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECORDED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WIND OF 104 KT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND AN SFMR PEAK\r\nWIND OF 96 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. BASED\r\nON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT. THE\r\nAIRCRAFT METEOROLOGIST ALSO INDICATED THAT IKE HAS A CLOSED 24 NM\r\nDIAMETER EYE. A DROPSONDE WITHIN THE EYE MEASURED 983 MB BUT THAT\r\nWAS WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 16 KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO 982 MB. ALTHOUGH NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nSEEMS TO BE PERSISTING OVER THE CYCLONE...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nAFFECTING THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AS MUCH AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.\r\nINTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nBEFORE IKE MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT NOW\r\nDEPICTS SOME WEAKENING AS IKE TRAVERSES THE CUBAN COAST. OF\r\nCOURSE...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST WILL\r\nEITHER ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WATER OR A LONGER PERIOD OF\r\nWEAKENING OVER LAND.  LATER ON...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 255/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW\r\nOF A STRONG RIDGE DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH\r\nTHE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO A MORE ZONAL\r\nPATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHICH WILL CAUSE IKE TO MOVE\r\nIN A MORE WESTWARD FASHION.  AFTERWARD...GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST RIDGE EXTENSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF/STRAITS OF\r\nFLORIDA WILL ERODE JUST ENOUGH TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS MUCH\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW CLOSE IKE WILL APPROACH THE\r\nNORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.  IN FACT...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS\r\nACTUALLY BRING THE CYCLONE OVER THE ISLAND IN 36 HOURS.  WITHOUT\r\nQUESTION...THE PARTICULAR TRACK THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE\r\nSUGGESTING COULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON IKE'S INTENSITY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nIS ADJUSTED JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COMPENSATE\r\nFOR THE WESTWARD-SHIFTING MODEL TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 22.4N  67.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.1N  69.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 21.8N  71.6W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 21.6N  74.1W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 21.8N  76.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  80.5W    90 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  83.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  85.5W   110 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nIKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER\r\nTODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS\r\nUPWELLED BY HANNA.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.\r\nIKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR\r\nTIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  THE DEGREE OF\r\nWEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.  BY\r\nDAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nWILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY\r\nWARM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT\r\n96 AND 120 HR.  GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND\r\nINTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL\r\nCONFIDENCE. \r\n \r\nIKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN\r\nWESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH\r\nOF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.\r\nTHIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL\r\nTRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO\r\nCAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING\r\nSUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD\r\nINTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF\r\nTHESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 21.9N  68.8W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.4N  70.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N  72.9W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.2N  75.4W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  77.6W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  84.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE\r\nINDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS AGAIN INTENSIFIED.  THE PLANE\r\nREPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 118 KT AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 129\r\nKT.  ADDITIONALLY...CALCULATIONS FROM A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST EYEWALL SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 110 KT. BASED\r\nON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.  WITH\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER IKE NOW RELAXING AND THE WATERS ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WARM...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE UNTIL\r\nIKE REACHES CUBA IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.   ONCE OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED UNTIL THE CYCLONE EMERGES BACK OVER WATER IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...ONLY A\r\nSMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE\r\nCORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER AND LESS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR. SOME\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE IKE DEPARTS CUBA SINCE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nIKE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF OF\r\n255/13. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT EASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN WESTWARD. IN 3\r\nTO 4 DAYS...AS IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE\r\nA WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL TRACK AT\r\nTHE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT INTO TWO\r\nCAMPS...WITH THE GFDL MODEL SHOWING IKE TURNING NORTHWARD INTO THE\r\nWEAKNESS...WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE\r\nBYPASSING IKE TO THE NORTH AND KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. IT IS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO COMMIT TO EITHER\r\nONE OF THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD\r\nSHIFT IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 21.4N  69.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 21.2N  71.6W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 21.1N  74.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   120 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.7W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  82.5W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  85.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  87.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 947 MB AND SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 114 KNOTS ON ITS LAST PENETRATION BEFORE RETURNING TO BASE\r\nA FEW HOURS AGO.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK IKE AROUND 6 UTC. SINCE\r\nTHEN...SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A DISTINCT EYE AND\r\nEXCELLENT OUTFLOW. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KNOTS.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST\r\nTO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL IKE REACHES EASTERN CUBA IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...IKE WILL BE MOVING OVER OR NEAR THE\r\nCOAST OF CUBA FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS. THIS MOST CERTAINLY WILL CAUSE\r\nSOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION NORTH OR SOUTH OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER\r\nAND THE ANTICIPATED WEAKENING PERHAPS WILL NOT OCCUR.  ONCE IKE\r\nMOVES OUT OF CUBA...AND MOVE TO THE OPEN GULF OF MEXICO IT COULD\r\nREGAIN SOME OF THE FORMER INTENSITY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. IT INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE HWRF MAKES IKE AN INTENSE\r\nHURRICANE AGAIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...MAKE IKE\r\nA VERY LARGE HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nIKE HESITATED A LITTLE EARLIER TODAY BUT IT HAS RESUMED ITS\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREE HEADING AT 13 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE\r\nSTILL HAS 24 TO 36 HOURS BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...SO A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. BY THEN...IKE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER WESTERN\r\nCUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE BULK OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THEREFORE I HAVE CONFIDENCE\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KNOW IF IKE\r\nWILL MOVE OVER CUBA OR OVER WATER SINCE CUBA IS LONG BUT NARROW.\r\nHOWEVER...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT THAT IN FIVE DAYS...THERE\r\nWILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE MOST\r\nOF THE TIMES...THIS IS A VERY GOOD OPTION.  UNANIMOUSLY...TRACK\r\nMODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD TONIGHT AND I HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 21.2N  70.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  73.0W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.5W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.0N  78.0W    95 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N  80.0W    80 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA \r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  83.5W    85 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF IKE PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE TURKS ISLANDS DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING SITE IN THE\r\nTURKS ISLANDS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 KT AND A PRESSURE OF\r\n975.3 MB AT 0300 UTC. NO ADDITIONAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM\r\nTHAT STATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 948 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL OF\r\n121 KT. THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT.\r\n \r\nIKE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AND THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/13. IT IS A\r\nLITTLE TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN\r\nHAS BEGUN. THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IKE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY\r\nOR SO...BEFORE TURNING MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH WEAKENS A LITTLE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS APPEARS\r\nTO HAVE STOPPED ITS SOUTHWARD SHIFTS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nADDITIONAL DATA PROVIDED BY THE G-IV DROPSONDE MISSION LAST\r\nEVENING. DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALONG THE\r\nLEFT OR SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF ON\r\nTHE RIGHT SIDE. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IT IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE DURING THE 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER OF\r\nIKE NEAR THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nDEPENDANT ON HOW LONG IKE INTERACTS WITH LAND. WITH THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST UP THE MIDDLE OF THE ISLAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADIVSORY. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF...CONIDITIONS APPREAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 21.1N  72.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 21.0N  74.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.6W   125 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.8N  79.0W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 22.5N  81.1W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 24.5N  84.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 26.0N  87.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  89.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS.  THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 949 MB AT 1100 UTC WHICH WAS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FIXES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115\r\nKT.  A RECENT SSMI OVERPASS INDICATES THAT AN OUTER RAINBAND COULD\r\nBE FORMING AN OUTER EYEWALL.  HOWEVER... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES...INCLUDING THEIR IMPACTS ON INTENSITY...ARE VERY DIFFICULT\r\nTO ANTICIPATE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS...EITHER UP OR DOWN...IN\r\nINTENSITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES EASTERN CUBA\r\nTONIGHT.  ONCE INLAND...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT THE DEGREE OF\r\nWEAKENING DEPENDS ON HOW LONG THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND.  THE\r\nLATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR APPROXIMATELY 36\r\nHOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL\r\nDEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE\r\nMOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  SINCE THE WATERS OVER\r\nTHE GULF ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE HIGH...\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nIKE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 265/13.  IKE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARDS\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE\r\nTHROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING SOME WEAKENING OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND A REDUCTION IKE'S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO BYPASS THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ONLY THE HWRF MODEL SHOWS\r\nENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS MATERIALIZING TO TURN IKE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nWHILE THIS SOLUTION IS POSSIBLE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE\r\nTOWARD THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH\r\nAREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE IMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nSYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FLOWN BY THE NOAA\r\nG-IV...AND THIS DATA...ALONG WITH SPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE OFFICES...ARE PROVIDING ENHANCED DATA INTO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 21.0N  73.4W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.9N  75.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  79.9W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.8W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  85.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  87.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATES THAT IKE HAS\r\nWEAKENED A LITTLE.  THE PLANE FOUND A PEAK SFMR OF 91 KT AND 107 KT\r\nAT FLIGHT LEVEL.  AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE SUGGESTED SURFACE WINDS\r\nAROUND 100 KT BUT THE DROP MAY NOT HAVE SAMPLED THE HIGHEST WINDS.\r\nWHILE THESE OBSERVATIONS WOULD NORMALLY SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY LOWER\r\nINTENSITY...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FELL TO 945 MB...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 105 KT.  A RECENT SERIES OF MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES AND REPORTS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT AN\r\nOUTER EYEWALL HAS FORMED...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL COMPLETE PRIOR TO IKE REACHING CUBA.\r\nACCORDINGLY...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER CUBA...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BUT\r\nTHE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW LONG THE CENTER\r\nSTAYS OVER LAND.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS IKE INLAND FOR\r\nAPPROXIMATELY 24-36 HOURS SO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS SHOWN.\r\nHOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OR THE SOUTH COULD\r\nRESULT IN THE CENTER OF IKE MOVING BACK OVER WATER SOONER.  IKE IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS\r\nWHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW.\r\nIKE'S POTENTIAL FOR RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL\r\nDEPEND ON ITS STRUCTURE ONCE IT EMERGES FROM CUBA.\r\n \r\nIKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/12.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH WEAKENS.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES CAUSING ADDITIONAL WEAKENING\r\nOF THE RIDGE AND A REDUCTION IN IKE'S FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING IKE TO THE\r\nNORTH WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.  THIS PATTERN\r\nWOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHT LEFT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS\r\n4 AND 5. TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SOUTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  HOWEVER...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS TOO MUCH ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK...AND IT IS MUCH TOO\r\nEARLY TO ANTICIPATE WHICH AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST COULD BE\r\nIMPACTED BY THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 21.1N  74.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 21.2N  76.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.7N  78.8W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 22.4N  80.8W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 23.2N  82.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 24.5N  85.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 26.0N  88.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  91.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND CUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE MADE\r\nLANDFALL AROUND 0145 UTC NEAR CABO LUCRECIA.  SATELLITE MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT OCCURRED SHORTLY BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL BUT IMAGES FROM THE GRAN PIEDRA RADAR IN CUBA SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N MI WAS STILL\r\nINTACT AS THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST.  SFMR AND DROPSONDE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT\r\nIKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN\r\nEASTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER\r\nMOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...TO\r\nALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THE CENTER EMERGING OVER WATER SOONER\r\nTHAN EXPECTED.  ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF WARM WATERS AND FAIRLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN STRENGTHENING....HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO\r\nHOW MUCH THE HURRICANE WILL INTENSIFY IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270/11.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST OF IKE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY\r\nBEND TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK ALONG MUCH OF\r\nCUBA.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AFTER IKE IS PREDICTED TO\r\nMOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT COULD TURN THE HURRICANE MORE NORTHWARD. \r\nHOWEVER A NUMBER OF MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH OF A WEAKNESS OR A\r\nTURN.  SUFFICE TO SAY THAT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT\r\nPORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY IKE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 21.1N  75.8W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.4N  77.6W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.1N  79.9W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.8N  81.7W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 23.6N  83.5W    80 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 25.0N  86.4W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  89.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 28.0N  92.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nCUBAN RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IKE CONTINUES\r\nMOVING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL CUBA.  THE EYE IS STILL VISIBLE BUT\r\nTHE EYEWALL IS NOW ENTIRELY OVER LAND AND ITS STRUCTURE HAS DEGRADED\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90\r\nKT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN SHOWS LESS WEAKENING OVER LAND\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...IN THE EVENT THAT THE\r\nCENTER EMERGES OVER WATER SOONER THAN FORECAST.  IF IKE FOLLOWS THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND WOULD\r\nALMOST SURELY BE WEAKER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF THAN SHOWN HERE. \r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY\r\nCONDUCIVE TO RESTRENGTHENING WITH A VERY DIFLUENT LIGHT SHEAR UPPER\r\nWIND PATTERN AND WARM WATERS BELOW.  THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS HOW\r\nDISRUPTED IKE WILL BE WHEN IT EMERGES.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  IKE'S\r\nTRAJECTORY IS EXPECTED TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AS THE STORM\r\nNEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER IN CALLING FOR A SHARP\r\nSHORT WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES ON DAYS 4-5. \r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH USE THE GFS FOR BOUNDARY CONDITIONS...MAY\r\nBE PICKING UP ON THAT AND SHOW A BEND TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE\r\nECMWF...SHOW MUCH MORE RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT\r\nTHOSE RANGES AND HAVE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  EVEN THOUGH THE GFDL\r\nHAS PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH IKE SO FAR...I'VE CHOSEN NOT TO ADJUST\r\nTHE TRACK EASTWARD GIVEN THAT THE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS IN THE GFS\r\nHAVE NO SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS.  IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO\r\nKNOW WHAT PORTION OF THE GULF COAST WILL ULTIMATELY BE AFFECTED BY\r\nIKE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 21.2N  77.3W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  79.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 22.4N  81.2W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 23.1N  83.0W    60 KT...EMERGING INTO GULF\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 23.9N  84.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  90.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 28.5N  93.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nDESPITE IKE'S TRACK OVER LAND DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...THE\r\nCYCLONE STILL HAS A GOOD CLOUD SIGNATURE AND RADAR STRUCTURE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS ONLY LOWERED TO 85 KT.  A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE IKE THIS AFTERNOON AND DETERMINE HOW MUCH\r\nWEAKENING HAS OCCURRED.  EXTRAPOLATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER\r\nWILL BE BACK OVER WATER SOUTH OF CUBA SOON.  IF THIS\r\nMATERIALIZES...IKE MIGHT NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY\r\nSHOWN...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY UPWARD WHILE IKE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN.\r\nIN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nWHERE THE WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nCUBAN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IKE\r\nCONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270/12.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL SOON TURN WEST-NORTHWEST AND TRACK\r\nALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS\r\nREQUIRES A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nTO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nRESULTING IN SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF IKE.\r\nTHIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TEMPORARILY TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nWITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  ALL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nSHORTWAVE TO BYPASS IKE TO THE NORTH...AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL TURN SLIGHTLY WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. \r\nTHIS TURN IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...MUCH\r\nUNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nWHICH BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE. ACCORDINGLY...IT\r\nIS STILL MUCH TOO SOON TO KNOW WHAT PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST\r\nCOULD BE IMPACTED BY IKE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 21.1N  78.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  80.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 22.2N  82.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.1N  83.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 25.5N  87.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 27.0N  90.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  93.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":31,"Date":"2008-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING IKE\r\nRECENTLY REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 MB.  DATA FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE CORE OF IKE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO\r\nLAND INTERACTION...AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...BUT THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS...RESTRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR BEFORE ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN CENTRAL OR WESTERN CUBA. \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS\r\nUNTIL IKE MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND AWAY FROM\r\nCUBA. ONCE IKE MOVES INTO THE GULF...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48 HR. \r\n \r\nIKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OUR BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NOW 275/12.  TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS TAKING THE CENTER OF IKE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF CUBA\r\nTONIGHT...THEN INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW.  ONCE\r\nIN THE GULF...IKE COULD SLOW DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY SWING BY AND BE\r\nREPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. SUCH\r\nA PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IKE TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A STRONGER RIDGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH\r\n5...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  SINCE\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 21.4N  79.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.8N  81.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 22.6N  83.2W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.6N  84.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 24.4N  86.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 25.5N  89.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  92.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  96.0W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":32,"Date":"2008-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PENETRATION OF IKE'S EYE\r\nINDICATED THAT THERE WAS A CLOSED WALL AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nCOLD TOPS DEVELOPING VERY NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE HAD BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT EVEN THOUGH THERE WERE NO\r\nRECENT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS TO SUPPORT THIS VALUE.  SURFACE WINDS AS\r\nHIGH AS 74 KT WERE REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE\r\nAIRCRAFT...BUT THOSE DATA WERE QUESTIONABLE.  SINCE THE INNER CORE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE REDEVELOPING...SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR AS LONG\r\nAS THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA.  AFTER\r\nIKE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nFAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WITH BROAD\r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND SOME EVIDENCE OF OUTFLOW CHANNELS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL 3- TO 4 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...BUT\r\nWE HAVE LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION AT THESE TIME RANGES.  \r\n\r\nAFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTHWEST AND ALMOST MOVING ASHORE ON\r\nTHE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA...THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/11 AND IKE IS MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO...AND\r\nJUST OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE MOTION OF IKE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN\r\n3-5 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE SPREADS OUT SOMEWHAT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDEPICT A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ITS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...ALONG WITH THE NOGAPS...SHOW THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BE\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE IKE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 96-120 HOURS. \r\nSOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL INDICATE THAT A SHORT\r\nWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES WILL ERODE THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO\r\nINDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TURN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  I AM\r\nFAVORING THE MORE WESTWARD OPTION AT THIS TIME SINCE IT WOULD SEEM\r\nTHAT THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH ARE REGIONAL MODELS...WOULD NOT\r\nHANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL AS\r\nA GLOBAL MODEL.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT IS STILL GENERALLY NORTH\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS ALWAYS...IT CANNOT BE\r\nOVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY FORECAST\r\nPOINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 21.8N  80.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 22.4N  82.3W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 24.8N  87.2W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  91.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 27.0N  94.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 28.0N  98.0W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":33,"Date":"2008-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE\r\nTHAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE\r\nINNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM.\r\nTHE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT\r\nSAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE\r\nGENEROUS AT THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED\r\nSTRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL\r\nMORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS\r\nWINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN\r\nCUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL\r\nHAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nCONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS\r\nOF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3\r\nHURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA\r\nPENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH\r\nCOAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE\r\nHURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN\r\nIN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nMORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE\r\nWEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE\r\nAGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS\r\nON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nIT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY\r\nFORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.\r\nDO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE\r\nNEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD\r\nWESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 22.0N  82.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 22.7N  83.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  85.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.2N  86.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  88.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 25.5N  93.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 27.0N  97.5W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":34,"Date":"2008-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT IKE IS MAINTAINING A\r\nSMALL AND WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTION IS\r\nTHAT OF A STRONGER STORM THAN THE RECONNAISSANCE WIND DATA SUPPORT.\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 965 MB ON THE LAST PASS...BUT THE PEAK\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE NO HIGHER THAN 66 KT.  SFMR DATA SEEM TO\r\nSUPPORT A 65 KT INTENSITY...BUT SINCE THERE WAS LIMITED SAMPLING IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 70 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. AFTER THAT...RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT IN THE CENTRAL\r\nGULF...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES THAT INDUCES A RIGHT\r\nTURN ON DAY 4. THE GFS AND NOGAPS HAVE A DIFFERENT PATTERN...WITH\r\nMORE RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF IKE THAT KEEPS THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVING BASICALLY WESTWARD. THE ECMWF HAS DONE VERY WELL\r\nWITH IKE THUS FAR...AND HAS RELATIVELY HIGH SKILL IN FORECASTING\r\nTHE LARGE SCALE PATTERNS AT THE LONGER RANGES. OUT OF RESPECT FOR\r\nTHIS MODEL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. BEGINNING TOMORROW AT 12Z THE NOAA G-IV\r\nJET AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING THE ENVIRONMENT OF IKE TO ASSIST IN\r\nTHE DETERMINATION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nWHEN IKE IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IT WILL BE IN A VERY\r\nDIFLUENT AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND IKE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  THE PATTERN LOOKS A\r\nLITTLE LESS CONDUCIVE IN THE WESTERN GULF...WITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nTHERE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASICALLY CATEGORY 2...AND THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGFDL/HWRF WHICH SHOW CAT 3/4 STRENGTH IN THE WESTERN GULF.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 22.6N  83.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 23.2N  84.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 24.0N  85.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 24.7N  87.4W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  93.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 27.5N  97.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 29.0N  99.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":35,"Date":"2008-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n \r\nIKE MAINTAINED A FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED CORE STRUCTURE DURING ITS\r\nPASSAGE OVER WESTERN CUBA...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE\r\nWARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE CENTER DURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS JUST BEGINNING ITS PATTERN TO DETERMINE\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF IKE...AND THEY HAVE ALREADY DETERMINED THAT THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE REMAINS LOW...968 MB. IN THE MEANTIME...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.  REPORTS FROM THE\r\nPLANE JUST IN SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND IS 60 NM OR\r\nLARGER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CORE IS INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE\r\nADVANTAGE OF SOME VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...INCLUDING SOME VERY DIFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK FOR IKE TAKES IT\r\nNEAR OR OVER THREE WARM EDDIES...REGIONS OF ENHANCED OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO FORECAST IKE TO REACH\r\nCATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF...WHILE THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM FAIL TO MAKE IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET STILL SHOW AN UPPER-AIR PATTERN THAT LOOKS SLIGHTLY LESS\r\nFAVORABLE IN THE WESTERN GULF...SO I HAVE LEVELLED OFF THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IKE IS A LARGE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW\r\nACROSS THE GULF.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS AS IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN RESPONSE TO\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NARROWING IN THE SPREAD OF THE\r\nLATEST MODEL RUNS...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS ALL SHOWING\r\nLESS RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF IKE LATE IN THE PERIOD AND SHIFTING\r\nTHEIR TRACKS NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND\r\nECMWF RUNS. IKE IS NOW EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...BUT\r\nALL OF THE BETTER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 22.9N  83.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  85.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 24.3N  86.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 24.9N  88.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 25.3N  90.6W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 26.5N  95.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 33.6N  98.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":36,"Date":"2008-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n\r\nTHE SFMR INSTRUMENT ABOARD A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MEASURED A\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 70 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE IS BECOMING\r\nBETTER DEFINED WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS AROUND IT.  IKE WILL BE\r\nTRAVERSING THE LOOP CURRENT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY...AND THERE ARE A\r\nCOUPLE OF OTHER WARM EDDIES...ALBEIT LESS PRONOUNCED...NEAR THE\r\nPROJECTED PATH OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.  THE GFS 200 MB\r\nWIND FORECAST SHOWS SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER IKE WHEN IT\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN GULF...BUT ALSO WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT\r\nINDICATE MUCH STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...PRESUMABLY BECAUSE\r\nOF WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A 200 MB HIGH NEAR\r\nTEXAS.  GIVEN THE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR\r\n300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nSHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD\r\nMAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS HAVE\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BUT THE OVERALL DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOR THIS PACKAGE IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AGAIN...ONE\r\nSHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL FORECAST POINT DUE TO THE\r\nINHERENT UNCERTAINTIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 23.2N  84.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 23.9N  85.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 24.6N  87.1W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  89.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.6N  91.1W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 27.5N  95.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 30.5N  98.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 35.0N  97.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":37,"Date":"2008-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND THERE ARE NUMEROUS OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. IKE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS PRODUCING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERMOST\r\nFLORIDA KEYS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY\r\nSAMPLING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 963 MB AND\r\nSFMR WINDS OF 73 KNOTS. THE MAXIMIUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SO FAR IS 81\r\nKNOTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 75\r\nKNOTS. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT IKE HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM THE\r\nMANY HOURS OF INTERACTION WITH LAND. A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE AS IKE MOVES OVER A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE LOOP CURRENT AND MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY THREE\r\nHURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL\r\nHURRICANE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE INTENISITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN\r\nAND IKE COULD END UP BEING A CATEGORY HIGHER OR LOWER THAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IKE IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL\r\nBUILD AND EXPAND WESTWARD FORCING IKE TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT TREE DAYS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.  MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR AFTER THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ALREADY INLAND. I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 24 TO 48\r\nHOUR FORECAST TRACK SINCE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE\r\nMORE SPREAD OUT...BUT THEY ALL BRING THE HURRICANE ASHORE ALONG\r\nTHE TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 23.5N  84.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 24.0N  86.0W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 24.7N  87.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N  89.7W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 25.8N  92.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N  96.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 31.5N  98.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 34.5N  97.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":38,"Date":"2008-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 81 KT...AND\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 957 MB.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 84\r\nKT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT ON THIS BASIS. \r\nTHE SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED.  \r\n\r\nTHE SMALL EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN LOOPING WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION OF IKE IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR A SLIGHT BEND TO THE LEFT\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD HAS INCREASE\r\nAGAIN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ONCE AGAIN...THE GFS INDICATES\r\nA MORE WESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW A RECURVATURE\r\nBEGINNING AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  USERS ARE REMINDED THAT THE AVERAGE THREE DAY\r\nFORECAST ERROR IS NEARLY 200 MILES...AND THAT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE THREAT IS GIVEN BY THE NHC WIND SPEED PROBABILITY GRAPHICAL AND\r\nTEXT PRODUCTS.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER EYE IS ERODING AS\r\nOUTER BANDS SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. \r\nTHIS COULD LIMIT RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM. \r\nHOWEVER...THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS GOING TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND NOT MUCH LESS FAVORABLE\r\nTHEREAFTER.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IKE OVER SOME\r\nWARM GULF EDDIES.  WHILE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN\r\nGULF...AND INDEED SOME OF THAT IS NEAR THE CORE RIGHT NOW...THE\r\nLARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION AND OUTER BANDING SUGGESTS THAT IKE\r\nSHOULD BE FAIRLY EFFECTIVE IN FIGHTING OFF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS THAN\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 23.9N  85.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  86.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 25.2N  88.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 25.7N  90.7W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 26.3N  93.1W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 28.5N  97.0W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 31.5N  98.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 34.5N  96.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":39,"Date":"2008-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT IKE HAS TWO WELL-DEFINED\r\nWIND MAXIMA OF ROUGHLY EQUAL STRENGTH.  THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 93 KT WERE FOUND IN A BAND ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE CENTER.  A\r\nDROPSONDE WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE CENTER REPORTED LOW-LAYER MEAN\r\nWINDS OF 97 KT...WHICH CORRESPOND TO 82 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THE\r\nADVISORY WINDS ARE SET TO 85 KT ON THIS BASIS.  THE LARGE EXPANSE\r\nOF HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPLAINS THE APPARENT\r\nMISMATCH BETWEEN THE PEAK WINDS AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.\r\nCONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...INCLUDING LIGHT SHEAR AND STRONGLY DIFLUENT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFTS IN THE TRACK NOW SUGGEST THAT IKE\r\nMAY ENCOUNTER A COOL EDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF AND MISS A WARM EDDY.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...ALL OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NOW MAKES IKE A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  OTHER THAN INTERNAL EYEWALL DYNAMICS...WHICH\r\nARE IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN ADVANCE...I SEE\r\nNO REASON WHY IKE SHOULD WEAKEN APPRECIABLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE\r\nWESTERN GULF.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  IKE IS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE TRACK BACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IKE APPROACHES A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO\r\nCOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO DAYS.  ALL GUIDANCE TURNS\r\nIKE NORTHWARD TO VARYING DEGREES WITHIN A DAY OR SO OF PROJECTED\r\nLANDFALL.  THERE HAS BEEN A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...MOST NOTABLY THE GFDL AND GFS.  IT IS TO BE EXPECTED\r\nTHAT SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE MODEL EVOLUTION OF THE WESTERN TROUGH\r\nAND RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO GUIDANCE FLIP\r\nFLOPS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THAT IN MIND...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.  IKE IS A VERY\r\nLARGE HURRICANE...AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LARGE AS\r\nIT CROSSES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER\r\nCROSSES THE COAST...THE EFFECTS OF IKE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE\r\nAREA.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 24.5N  86.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  87.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 25.6N  89.3W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 26.2N  91.5W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N  94.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  97.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 34.5N  95.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":40,"Date":"2008-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\nOVERALL...IKE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...AS DATA FROM BOTH AIR FORCE AND\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EXTENT OF WINDS OF\r\nHURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAS INCREASED...ESPECIALLY NORTH\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  PARADOXICALLY...IKE HAS A VERY SMALL\r\nINNER CORE...AND THE EYE HAS A DIAMETER OF ONLY ABOUT 8 TO 10 N MI. \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADILY FALLING...NOW DOWN TO ABOUT\r\n944 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE NOT YET RESPONDED.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT BASED ON RECENT SFMR WIND SPEED RETRIEVALS. \r\nTHE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW LONG THE\r\nEXTREMELY SMALL INNER CORE SURVIVES.  SINCE IT COULD DISINTEGRATE\r\nAT ANY TIME...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE PASSING NEAR OR OVER A COLD\r\nEDDY IN THE CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE\r\nCOULD WEAKEN.  IF...HOWEVER...THE TENACIOUS INNER CORE REMAINS\r\nINTACT...AND GIVEN THE RECENT PRESSURE FALLS...IKE COULD STRENGTHEN\r\nSOME AS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE\r\nUNDERLYING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...AND IKE WILL REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...SO MORE ROBUST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 36-48\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS BUT IS SIMILAR THEREAFTER...AND\r\nIS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...BUT HIGHER THAN SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM.  THE APPARENT WEAKENING BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS IMPLIED BY\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWN BELOW ONLY RESULTS FROM IKE GOING\r\nINLAND...BUT NO WEAKENING TREND IS ACTUALLY ANTICIPATED LEADING UP\r\nTO FINAL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF IKE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6...A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT VERY\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST FIX FROM THE NOAA HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGESTS THE TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD\r\nBE STARTING.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD. \r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY INDUCE A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL\r\nOCCUR.  THE HWRF IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nFORECASTS A STRONGER AND LONGER-LASTING RIDGE THAT TAKES IKE INTO\r\nDEEP SOUTH TEXAS BEFORE TURNING NORTH.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL IS\r\nTHE RIGHTMOST MODEL WITH A WEAKER RIDGE THAT ALLOWS IKE TO TURN\r\nINTO THE GALVESTON AREA.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN...AS IS\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST....WHICH IS NOT APPRECIABLY CHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY SINCE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BARELY BUDGED.  \r\nSINCE THE TIMING OF THE TURN BEFORE LANDFALL IS SO UNCERTAIN AND SO\r\nKEY IN WHERE THE CORE OF IKE COMES ASHORE...AND SINCE IKE WILL BE\r\nROUNDING THE RIDGE AND NOT GOING IN A STRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN 48 AND\r\n72 HOURS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK.  EVERYONE IN\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH AREA HAS ABOUT THE SAME RISK OF HURRICANE\r\nCONDITIONS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 24.9N  86.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 25.4N  88.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N  90.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 26.7N  92.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 27.7N  94.6W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 31.5N  96.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 36.0N  93.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":41,"Date":"2008-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n \r\nIKE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME UNUSUAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\nDROPSONDE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY IS\r\nSTILL NEAR 85 KT...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY LOW FOR THE REPORTED\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE.  THE LATTER VALUE...946 MB...WOULD NORMALLY\r\nCORRESPOND TO A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...PARTICULARLY OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS OBSERVED BY BUOYS AND SHIPS OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF.  HOWEVER IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL INNER CORE\r\nWITH AN EYE JUST UNDER 10 N MI IN DIAMETER.  THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nDOUBLE WIND MAXIMUM...ALTHOUGH HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE OUTER WIND BAND IS BEGINNING TO CONTRACT.  OCEANIC\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR NEUTRAL ALONG THE PATH OF IKE AS IT WILL LIKELY\r\nTRAVERSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF A COUPLE OF WARM EDDIES OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH MODEST\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  IKE IS FORECAST TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL...WHICH IS\r\nSIMILAR TO WHAT WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE CURRENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MOTION HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...I.E. 295/8. \r\nTHE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES TO TEXAS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE PORTION\r\nOF THE RIDGE OVER TEXAS WILL WEAKEN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND THIS\r\nWOULD CAUSE IKE TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  THERE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW SOON\r\nAND HOW SHARP OF A TURN WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...THE CONSENSUS OF OUR\r\nMOST RELIABLE TRACK FORECAST MODELS IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THEREFORE I HAVE MADE ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF\r\nRUN...WHICH IS TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE\r\nLATEST GFDL RUN....WHICH IS TO THE RIGHT.  IN THIS CASE IT IS\r\nPARTICULARLY IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK\r\nSINCE DAMAGING WINDS EXTEND SO FAR FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nNECESSITATES AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING A LITTLE\r\nFATHER NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.     \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 25.2N  87.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 25.7N  89.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 26.3N  91.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 27.1N  93.2W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 28.4N  95.2W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 32.5N  96.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":42,"Date":"2008-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IKE IS\r\nMAINTAINING AN ATYPICAL WIND STRUCTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY\r\nBROAD WIND FIELD WITH MULTIPLE WIND MAXIMA AND RELATIVELY LITTLE\r\nTRANSPORT OF WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE NOAA AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 103 KT 100 NMI\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 65\r\nKT.  IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NOTHING AT THE SURFACE RECENTLY THAT\r\nQUITE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 85 KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nFORECASTING CHANGES IN THE WIND STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IS\r\nEVEN MORE CHALLENGING THAN FORECASTING THE INTENSITY...BUT IKE HAS\r\nPLENTY OF TIME FOR ONE OF THE OUTER MAXIMA TO CONTRACT AND FOR THE\r\nWINDS TO TRY TO CATCH UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ABOUT\r\n945 MB.  ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...IT IS STRONG ELSEWHERE AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LIGHT.  ONE INHIBITING FACTOR COULD BE UPWELLING/MIXING OF\r\nCOOLER WATER AHEAD OF THE PATH OF IKE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE\r\nEXPANSE OF STRONG WINDS.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE NEAR LANDFALL\r\nRANGES FROM A CATEGORY FOUR FROM THE GFDL TO CATEGORY TWO FROM THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...ABOUT THE ERROR ONE CAN EXPECT FROM AN OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ONE TO TWO DAYS OUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ROUGHLY SPLITS\r\nTHE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND ANTICIPATES THAT\r\nIKE WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST THINKING THROUGH LANDFALL...WITH IKE EXPECTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL VERY NEAR\r\nLANDFALL...WHEN IT SHOULD GENTLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AT THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nNEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT AND THE GFS\r\nTO THE LEFT. ONCE AGAIN...GIVEN THE TYPICAL FORECAST ERRORS FOR A\r\n48 HOUR FORECAST...AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 25.5N  88.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N  90.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.6N  92.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 27.8N  94.2W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 29.5N  95.9W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 34.5N  94.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 38.0N  85.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":43,"Date":"2008-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n \r\nA PAIR OF DROPSONDES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\nFINALLY PROVIDED SOME HARD DATA TO SUPPORT THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY...WITH LOWER-LAYER MEAN WINDS OF 96 KT...WHICH ADJUST TO\r\n80 KT AT THE SURFACE. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL INNER\r\nWIND MAXIMUM HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...AND THE INNERMOST RADIUS OF\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW AROUND 60 NMI. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WINDS THERE\r\nARE ABOUT 100 KT...AND NEARLY THAT STRONG OUT TO AT LEAST 100 NMI.\r\nAS THE INNER WIND MAXIMUM DISSIPATED...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE ROSE TO\r\nABOUT 954 MB...BUT HAS SINCE FALLEN TO 950 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE GFDL STILL MAKES IKE A MAJOR HURRICANE. FACTORS INHIBITING\r\nDEVELOPMENT INCLUDE THE LARGE BROAD WIND FIELD...STRONG WINDS OVER\r\nAREAS OF LIMITED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE PATH OF\r\nIKE...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS THAT IS FORCING DESCENT\r\nAND CREATING DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. INDEED...\r\nCONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF IKE HAS BEEN RATHER THIN FOR MUCH OF\r\nTHE DAY. HOWEVER...THIS LATTER UPPER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS IKE ENTERS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...AND IN THIS\r\nCONFIGURATION WOULD PROVIDE AN UPPER PATTERN MORE CONDUCIVE TO\r\nSTRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. CURRENTLY THE OUTFLOW IS VERY\r\nWELL ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIKE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF\r\nHIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  A DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDS\r\nINTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES...AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY RECURVE\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nTHROUGH LANDFALL.  AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER TEXAS MOVES\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...A SLIGHT BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT IS EXPECTED\r\nPRIOR TO THE BEGINNING OF RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...BUT IS STILL JUST LEFT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE AVERAGE 36-HOUR\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 80 NMI.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE EXPANSE OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...IKE\r\nWILL CREATE A STORM SURGE WELL IN EXCESS OF WHAT WOULD NORMALLY BE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A STORM OF ITS INTENSITY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 26.0N  89.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 26.6N  90.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 27.6N  93.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  95.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 37.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":44,"Date":"2008-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n\r\nIKE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN TERMS OF STRENGTH...SIZE...AND STRUCTURE\r\nTHIS EVENING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS NOT RID ITSELF OF WHAT\r\nREMAINS OF THE OLD INNER EYEWALL...BUT RECON SHOWS THAT WINDS ARE\r\nNOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ASSOCIATION WITH THAT FEATURE.\r\nINSTEAD...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS EVEN A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER OUT THAN BEFORE...NOW ABOUT 80 N MI.  SFMR RETRIEVED WIND\r\nSPEEDS AND LOW-LAYER AVERAGES FROM DROPSONDES IN THAT MAXIMUM WIND\r\nBAND SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT.  ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IKE WILL REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A\r\nLITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS...PROVIDING THE CYCLONE SOME OPPORTUNITY\r\nTO STRENGTHEN BEFORE WEAKENING OVER LAND.  THE SLOWLY-CHANGING\r\nSTRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND NONE OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE EXPLICITLY FORECASTS IKE TO REACH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE WATERS OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF ARE NOT EXACTLY COLD...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST STILL SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT IKE COULD REACH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS BEFORE CROSSING THE COAST.\r\n\r\nIKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/10 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IKE WILL\r\nROUND THAT RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD IN GENERAL LAST UNTIL IKE IS NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nCOASTLINE...BUT THE EXACT TIMING OF THE TURN IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY\r\nUNCERTAIN THAT ONE CANNOT SPECIFY A TIME AND LOCATION OF FINAL\r\nLANDFALL OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...IKE WILL AFFECT A VERY LARGE AREA\r\nREGARDLESS OF EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER GOES. DAMAGING WINDS AND\r\nDANGEROUS STORM SURGES COULD EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION...AND CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL DETERIORATE\r\nTOMORROW WELL IN ADVANCE OF LANDFALL OF THE CENTER. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS HAVE NOT TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER SINCE\r\nTHE LAST CYCLE...AND ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED RIGHT AROUND THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS CHANGED NEGLIGIBLY ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE DURING THE INLAND RECURVATURE...AND THE FORECAST NOW DESIGNATES\r\nIKE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED\r\nWITH A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 26.3N  90.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 27.1N  92.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 28.5N  94.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 32.9N  95.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 39.0N  88.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":45,"Date":"2008-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND SFMR-BASED\r\nSURFACE WINDS OF 92 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...\r\nA DROPSONDE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 85-90\r\nKT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH IKE HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE\r\nSTILL WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...OCCURRING ABOUT 50-60 N MI\r\nAWAY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LATEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT WAS 953 MB.\r\n\r\nIKE WOBBLED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A MOTION OF 290/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  IKE IS MOVING\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TOWARD A BREAK CAUSED BY A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  IKE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HR...THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES\r\nTHEREAFTER.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nGFS CALLS FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BEFORE LANDFALL AND A SLOWER\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nGENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND\r\nBEING NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AFTER 36 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND ANALYSES FROM CIMMS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IKE IS UNDERGOING ABOUT 15 KT\r\nOF NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SOME NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR TO PERSIST UNTIL LANDFALL.  THAT...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF\r\nAN INNER CORE...SUGGESTS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST.  HOWEVER...IKE\r\nIS PRODUCING ABUNDANT STRONG CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING\r\nTHIS MORNING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH THE GFDL FORECASTING AN\r\nINTENSITY OF JUST OVER 100 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR IKE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HR. \r\nIKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HR AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF IKE MAKES LANDFALL...THE EFFECTS\r\nWILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER DUE TO THE VERY\r\nLARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 26.7N  91.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 27.4N  93.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  94.8W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 31.3N  95.7W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 34.4N  94.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 41.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED IN FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":46,"Date":"2008-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT IKE HAS NOT\r\nDEVELOPED A TIGHT INNER CORE AS ANTICIPATED. ONCE AGAIN THIS\r\nREEMPHASIZES THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING CHANGES IN THE INNER\r\nCORE STRUCTURE OF A HURRICANE WHICH LEADS TO CHANGES IN INTENSITY.\r\nAN ELEVATED PLATFORM...122 METERS...400 FT HEIGHT NEAR THE CENTER\r\nREPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 109 KNOTS EARLIER THIS MORNING WHICH IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH DATA FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANES SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KNOTS AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\nIKE CONTINUES AS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE HURRICANE PRODUCING HURRICANE\r\nFORCE WINDS ABOUT 105 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS\r\nSTILL A CHANCE THAT IT COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE ONLY\r\nTALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT INCREASE.  IKE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OR MERGE WITH\r\nA FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STEERING FLOW AND IKE\r\nCONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK AT 10 KNOTS.  THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER\r\nTEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  THIS IS\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY HAS THE\r\nHURRICANE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.\r\nONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD.  \r\n \r\nONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE\r\nEFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 27.2N  92.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 28.2N  94.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  95.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 32.5N  96.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 36.0N  93.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A EXTRATROPICAL LOW \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":47,"Date":"2008-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008\r\n \r\nIKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF\r\nIKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE\r\nWIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS\r\nSTILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE\r\nONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE.  STATE OF THE ART\r\nTECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH\r\nTO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION.  ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS\r\nTHIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL\r\nWEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nBY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nIKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nAT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT\r\nTONIGHT.  I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER\r\nTEXAS COAST.  ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT\r\nBECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE\r\nEFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN\r\nADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE\r\nFLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER\r\nLEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON\r\nISLAND.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 27.7N  93.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  94.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  96.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 35.0N  94.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 38.5N  89.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":48,"Date":"2008-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008\r\n \r\nA PLETHORA OF DATA FROM NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS...NOAA AND AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE STRUCTURE OF IKE HAS IMPROVED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...AND A 40 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME PROMINENT. THE LOWEST\r\nPRESSURE REPORTED BY RECON HAS BEEN 952 MB. DOPPLER RADAR\r\nVELOCITIES IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL AT 6500 FT HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS\r\n114 KT...AND A DROPSONDE IN THAT SAME AREA MEASURED A PEAK WIND\r\nVALUE OF 116 KT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB HAVE RANGED\r\nFROM 103-105 KT...AND A RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 90 KT\r\nWAS MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AROUND 0140Z. ALL OF THIS\r\nINFORMATION CORRESPONDS TO A MAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF\r\n95 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE EYE OF IKE HAS BEEN WOBBLING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS...BUT A GENERAL MOTION OF 315/10 SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN THE\r\nPREFERRED DIRECTION OF TRAVEL. SHORT TERM EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PLACE\r\nTHE CENTER OF IKE ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND AND/OR THE UPPER-TEXAS\r\nCOAST SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...IKE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST\r\nAND TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN RECURVE RAPIDLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A FAST APPROACHING FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM. BY 36-48 HOURS...IKE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIKE STILL HAS ABOUT A 6-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN\r\nINTO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...HOWEVER...IS THE\r\nEFFECT THAT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE ON HIGH RISE BUILDINGS.\r\nWIND DATA FROM LAND-BASED DOPPLER RADARS AND AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES\r\nINDICATE THAT WINDS NEAR CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH...115 KT OR 130 MPH\r\n...EXIST JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE A\r\nREPEAT OF DAMAGE TO WINDOWS IN HIGH RISE STRUCTURES SIMILAR TO WHAT\r\nOCCURRED DURING HURRICANE ALICIA IN 1983. THE PEAK WIND SPEED AND\r\nVARIOUS WIND RADII WERE HELD HIGHER THAN OUR INLAND WIND DECAY\r\nMODELS ARE PREDICTING DUE TO THE MUCH LARGER SIZE OF IKE.\r\n \r\nONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE\r\nEFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN\r\nADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE\r\nFLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY RISEN\r\nMORE THAN 9 TO 12 FEET ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...INCLUDING GALVESTON ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 28.6N  94.4W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 30.3N  95.4W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 36.6N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 40.5N  86.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":49,"Date":"2008-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008\r\n \r\nTHE 40 NM WIDE EYE OF IKE MADE LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST\r\nJUST AFTER 0700 UTC.  AIRCRAFT AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLANDFALL INTENSITY WAS 95 KT...CATEGORY 2 ON THE SAFFIR SIMPSON\r\nSCALE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE LANDFALL PRESSURE WAS NEAR\r\n952 MB.  THE STORM HAS NOT YET HAD TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN...\r\nSO 95 KT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IKE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER INLAND...WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nFORECAST TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY LATE SATURDAY\r\nAFTERNOON AND BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ON SUNDAY.  IKE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY 48 HR AND BE ABSORBED\r\nINTO A FRONTAL ZONE THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER WOBBLY 325/11.  IKE IS ROUNDING THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH IKE HAS MADE LANDFALL...IT REMAINS A VERY LARGE AND\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH EFFECTS FELT AT LONG DISTANCES FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  WATER LEVELS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS MAY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR SEVERAL MORE\r\nHOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY OCCUR WELL INLAND\r\nNEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER OF IKE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 29.7N  95.0W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 31.5N  95.2W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 34.6N  93.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 38.6N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 42.5N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ike","Adv":50,"Date":"2008-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008\r\n \r\nIKE IS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES\r\nFARTHER INLAND TOWARD EASTERN TEXAS. MAXIMUM DOPPLER VELOCITIES\r\nHAVE DROPPED BELOW 100 KT DURING THE PAST HOUR...SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nGENEROUS. HOWEVER...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 968.5 MB WAS REPORTED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE EYE AT HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...SO I WOULD RATHER ERR ON\r\nTHE SIDE OF CAUTION AND NOT BRING THE WINDS DOWN TOO QUICKLY...\r\nESPECIALLY WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14.  IKE IS MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED\r\nEAST-WEST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. IKE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A SHARP FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. BY 24-36\r\nHOURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IKE MAY BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM OR TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE\r\nEXPECTED FORWARD SPEED OF IKE'S SURFACE LOW IS SLOWER IN THE\r\nADVISORY THAN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING DUE TO\r\nANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING\r\nFROM THE LOW-LEVELS AND RACING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST DUE TO\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 100 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE TIMING OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IKE IS SPINNING DOWN AS A HURRICANE IN TERMS OF MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS...UNFORTUNATELY...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF\r\nEASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT...AS WILL CONTINUED\r\nHIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG MUCH OF THE WESTERN LOUISIANA\r\nAND UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 31.0N  95.3W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 33.2N  95.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 36.7N  92.3W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 40.6N  86.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 44.5N  77.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":51,"Date":"2008-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008\r\n \r\nIKE IS STEADILY WINDING DOWN AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT IKE IS BARELY\r\nABOVE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD...DESPITE THE RATHER LOW PRESSURE OF\r\n980.7 MB RECENTLY REPORTED AT TYLER TEXAS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD OCCUR AS IKE MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN\r\nTEXAS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nBEFORE THE CENTER REACHES SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. IKE\r\nIS FORECAST OT MERGE WITH A STOUT COLD FRONT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...\r\nAFTER WHICH THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A FAIRLY STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...AND THEN OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/16.  IKE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nGEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG\r\nAGREEMENT ON A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH ARKANSAS...\r\nMISSOURI...ILLINOIS..AND INDIANA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN MANY\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVELS...AND THEN\r\nACCELERATING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HOSTILE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF MORE THAN 110 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE TIMING OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IKE IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nTORNADOES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN\r\nLOUISIANA...AND ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nPRODUCING FLOODING WILL REMAIN A THREAT AS WELL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 32.4N  95.3W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 35.1N  93.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 38.9N  88.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 43.0N  80.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ike","Adv":52,"Date":"2008-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008\r\n \r\nIKE STILL EXHIBITS SOLID AND WELL-DEFINED SPIRAL BANDS IN RADAR\r\nIMAGERY AND CERTAINLY STILL QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KT WERE REPORTED EAST OF THE CENTER AT\r\nTEXARKANA AT SYNOPTIC TIME...AND THE BAND THAT PRODUCED THOSE WINDS\r\nHAS NOT YET PASSED OVER ANOTHER SURFACE OBSERVING SITE.  RADAR\r\nVELOCITIES FROM SHREVEPORT AND LITTLE ROCK DO NOT PROVIDE MUCH\r\nEVIDENCE THAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED THIS\r\nEVENING...SO I AM COMPELLED TO ASSUME THAT IKE IS STILL PRODUCING\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE SOMEWHERE AT THE\r\nSURFACE...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL RATHER LOW\r\nAT ABOUT 982 MB.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED AS IKE\r\nPROCEEDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER LAND...ALTHOUGH AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IT COULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE GALE-FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND OVER ATLANTIC CANADA IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.\r\n\r\nROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...IKE IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES...AND MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION AT ADVISORY TIME IS\r\n025/21.  EVEN THOUGH IKE WILL LIKELY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nIN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IKE\r\nREMAINING A DISTINCT ENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE\r\nSHOWS POINTS OUT TO 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nVERSION OF IKE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A LARGER LOW AT VERY\r\nHIGH LATITUDES.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 34.3N  93.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 37.4N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 42.2N  82.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 46.8N  71.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 51.0N  59.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ike","Adv":53,"Date":"2008-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2008\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IKE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS\r\nAND HIGHER GUSTS OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nSURFACE DATA SHOW A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING IKE...WITH AN AREA OF\r\n25-35 KT WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT FROM SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMISSOURI ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS\r\nIS THE FIRST SIGN OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHAT IKE WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WITH IKE\r\nPRODUCING GALE-FORCE WINDS UNTIL IT MERGES WITH A LARGER LOW IN\r\nABOUT 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/26.  IKE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN CONTINUE\r\nRAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE LARGER LOW\r\nAT VERY HIGH LATITUDE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON IKE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. \r\nFUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL\r\nPREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 36.4N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 40.4N  87.0W    30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 45.6N  76.5W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 50.0N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 55.0N  52.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z...MERGED WITH LARGER LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE JUST\r\nSOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE\r\nCURVED BAND FEATURES TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT AND T2.5/35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/14. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO...AND THEN TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW A LITTLE BIT\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTHE RIDGE BETWEEN 30N-40 LONGITUDE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72-96\r\nHOURS...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO SLOWLY BUILD BACK IN AND TURN\r\nTHE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO BUT TO THE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT\r\nFOR WHAT APPEARS TO BE A POLEWARD BIAS BY THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...BY\r\n36-48 HOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR OF 20-30 KT WILL DEVELOP...WHICH COULD DISRUPT OR EVEN HALT\r\nTHE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE GFS\r\nCOMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE AT THIS\r\nTIME GIVEN THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE NOTED IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN HIGHER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO\r\nTHE CYCLONE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE OVER WARMER\r\nWATER AND UNDER LESS SHEAR THAN THE SHIPS MODEL IS DEPICTING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 12.4N  23.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 12.9N  25.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.6N  28.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N  31.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.4N  33.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N  38.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  41.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  46.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS AN INCREASE IN THE CYCLONE'S\r\nORGANIZATION...WITH VERY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND EVEN A\r\nDECEPTIVE CENTRAL FEATURE DISGUISED AS AN EYE.  THE CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nARE NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD IN THE INFRARED...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...SO THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO\r\nA TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2008 ATLANTIC SEASON. \r\nJOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28\r\nCELSIUS...AND THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN AT\r\nLEAST THAT WARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WIND SHEAR IS\r\nESSENTIALLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE CYCLONE...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING\r\nSEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND COULD BE RAPID GIVEN THE\r\nINCREASED ORGANIZATION AND THAT THE SHIPS-BASED RI INDEX GIVES A\r\n50% CHANCE OF AN INTENSITY INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...JOSEPHINE WILL TRAVERSE SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS...AND DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO\r\nMOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WIND SHEAR WILL PROBABLY\r\nINCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  EVEN THOUGH ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WEAKENING TREND TO START BY 72 HOURS...TO\r\nMAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY\r\nSHOWS AN INTENSITY PLATEAU AT 60 KT IN THE LONGER TERM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS BRISK ALONG A HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE\r\nWEST...OR 280/13...BUT THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND\r\nAN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE\r\nEAST-CENTRAL SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY STEERING\r\nMECHANISM...BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO PROCEED\r\nWESTWARD AND SHIFT TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW DAYS. \r\nMEANWHILE...THE DEEP-LAYER LOW JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nJOSEPHINE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY JUST CAUSE A SLIGHT BEND TO THE\r\nRIGHT AND A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3-5.  MODELS ARE IN VERY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE MARKEDLY...WITH\r\nTHE GFS TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AND THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKING\r\nIT NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE AND FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS...WHICH IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 13.2N  25.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.6N  27.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.3N  29.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 15.2N  32.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 16.1N  34.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N  39.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  43.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.0N  47.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n\r\nJOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A RATHER IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE INFRARED CLOUD TOPS ARE STILL NOT\r\nALL THAT COLD...WITH SOLID AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nAND WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  LACKING\r\nACTUAL WIND DATA ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT.  SOME DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES AND AN EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUGGEST THE STORM\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT WE CAN WAIT UNTIL THE VARIOUS\r\nESTIMATES PERHAPS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.  NEVER MIND THE\r\nDETAILS...JOSEPHINE APPEARS POISED TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE.  THE\r\nSTORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER RATHER WARM SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS...AND THE WATERS WILL REMAIN THAT\r\nWARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  COMBINE THAT WITH THE COMPLETE\r\nABSENCE OF WIND SHEAR...AND STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM.  ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nHWRF FORECAST A HURRICANE...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS AT 65 KT\r\nAT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST...\r\nWHICH IS AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALL OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A WEAKENING TREND AT\r\nDAYS 3-5...HOWEVER...IN RESPONSE TO JOSEPHINE PASSING OVER COOLER\r\nSSTS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  GIVEN THIS\r\nGUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKER CYCLONE AT FIVE\r\nDAYS...AND EVEN 55 KT IS ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODEL PREDICTIONS.\r\n\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE IS USHERING THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/12.  MODELS ARE\r\nCLUSTERED FAIRLY TIGHTLY AROUND THIS SAME HEADING AND SPEED FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST A FASTER\r\nMOTION THAT EVENTUALLY BECOMES NORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER LOW THAT WILL CROSS THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EITHER SLOWER OR\r\nFARTHER SOUTH.  SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST\r\nHANDLE ON THE INITIAL MOTION...THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE SLIGHTLY\r\nFAVORED...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 13.7N  25.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 14.2N  27.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.0N  30.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 15.9N  33.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 16.9N  35.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N  40.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N  44.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  48.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION TREND SEEN EARLIER TODAY WITH JOSEPHINE HAS\r\nSTOPPED TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW AN ORGANIZED\r\nCLOUD PATTERN WITH LOTS OF BANDING...CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS\r\nDIMINISHED SOMEWHAT. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT INDICATED THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45\r\nKT. JOSEPHINE COULD INTENSIFY SOME WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LIGHT\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER ALL GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES DIVING SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE\r\nSTORM. THIS FEATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND\r\nCAUSE AT LEAST SOME SLOW WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nLOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT\r\nIS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER\r\nFORECAST JOSEPHINE TO BE A HURRICANE...A BIG CHANGE FROM EARLIER.  \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE WEST...ABOUT 280/10.  WEAK RIDGING IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE STORM IN A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FASHION DURING THE PERIOD.  THE MODELS ARE NOT AS\r\nCLUSTERED AS BEFORE WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE OTHER\r\nMODELS WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL REMAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE HWRF/GFDL.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 13.6N  26.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.0N  28.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 14.7N  31.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N  33.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  36.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N  40.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N  44.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 22.0N  49.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nJOSEPHINE THIS EVENING...DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING IS EXPANDING OVER\r\nTHE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 50\r\nKT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF\r\nJOSEPHINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN INCREASING SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING BEYOND THE 36\r\nPERIOD.  IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS AGREE WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/11...WITHIN THE\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHEAST EXTENSION OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND\r\n36 HOURS WITH ONE CLUSTER CONSISTING OF THE UKMET AND THE GFS TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MORE THAN LIKELY DUE TO A SHALLOW\r\nDEPICTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nBLEND...THE TWO HURRICANE MODELS AND THE SUPER ENSEMBLE ARE\r\nINDICATING A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITHIN A DEEPER LAYER FLOW. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO CLUSTER\r\nSOLUTIONS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 13.7N  27.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 14.2N  29.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  31.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.8N  34.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.6N  36.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N  41.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  45.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 22.5N  50.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND A RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THE INTENSITY IS NOW NEAR 55 KT.   IF\r\nJOSEPHINE HAS ASPIRATIONS OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...IT NEEDS TO DO\r\nSO QUICKLY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nFLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE WEST...IS BEGINNING TO\r\nIMPINGING UPON JOSEPHINE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.  ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESENCE OF ARC CLOUDS\r\nEMANATING FROM THE CLOUD CANOPY SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR MIGHT BE\r\nAFFECTING JOSEPHINE.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GET EVEN\r\nSTRONGER AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GET COOLER... WEAKENING\r\nAPPEARS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRACIOUSLY ALLOWS FOR A\r\nLITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS SO JOSEPHINE COULD WEAKER FASTER THAN\r\nSHOWN HERE.  \r\n\r\nWITH A LARGE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO MOVE ALMOST\r\nDUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT.  SINCE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD...A MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST.\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 13.8N  28.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.1N  30.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 14.8N  33.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 15.4N  35.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N  38.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 17.5N  43.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N  47.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.0N  52.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE REALLY WORKED A NUMBER ON\r\nJOSEPHINE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AFTER LOOKING RATHER\r\nIMPRESSIVE EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS\r\nSINCE RAPIDLY DEGRADED.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THERE IS NOW A\r\nNOTICEABLE LACK OF ORGANIZATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES BUT\r\nTHIS COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS GIVEN JOSEPHINE'S CURRENT APPEARANCE.\r\nIN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE ENVIRONMENT GETS MORE\r\nHOSTILE FROM HERE.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nJOSEPHINE WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND SOME\r\nMODELS EVEN SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE.  ADDITIONALLY...SSTS\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH ABOUT 3 DAYS. \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT DOES BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT WILL\r\nBE LEFT OF JOSEPHINE BY THAT TIME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nWITH JOSEPHINE'S FUTURE VERTICAL DEPTH NOW IN QUESTION...THE\r\nSTEERING IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN.  IF THE CYCLONE CANNOT GENERATE\r\nNEW CONVECTION...IT COULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE SHALLOW CURRENTS\r\nAND MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE GFS.\r\nCONVERSELY...IF THE CYCLONE CAN REGENERATE CONVECTION AND REMAIN A\r\nDEEP SYSTEM...IT WOULD TEND TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE\r\nNOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nHAVE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION RESULTING IN A STAIR-STEPPED\r\nTRACK.  GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND ANTICIPATED\r\nSTRONG SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS RESULTING\r\nIN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 13.8N  29.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N  31.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.6N  34.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 15.2N  36.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 15.9N  38.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N  43.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N  52.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE PATTERN WITH NO BANDING FEATURES AND ONLY A STRETCHED BURST\r\nOF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nHAVE COME DOWN FROM SAB/TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 45 KT IN LINE WITH THOSE ESTIMATES.  AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST\r\nOF JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO SHEAR THE STORM.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE\r\nTHE MAIN FACTOR TO MODULATE THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST.  THUS A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN SHEAR BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT\r\nTHERE MIGHT NOT BE MUCH LEFT BY THEN AND I'D PREFER TO SHOW LITTLE\r\nCHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/10. A WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO\r\nRIDGING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. IF JOSEPHINE BECAME A STRONGER\r\nSYSTEM...IT WOULD PROBABLY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nDEEPER STEERING CURRENT LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER...\r\nI'M GOING TO STAY WITH THE PREVIOUS REASONING OF THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINING WEAKER AND BEING STEERED BY THE MORE SHALLOW CURRENTS\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 13.9N  30.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.2N  32.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.6N  34.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.0N  37.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.5N  39.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N  44.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N  48.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  53.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT\r\nAND T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS FARTHER NORTH INTO THE CONVECTION...THEN JOSEPHINE WILL\r\nBE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...BASED MAINLY ON MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. JOSEPHINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48-72\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE\r\n...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JOSEPHINE TO MAKE A POLEWARD JOG AT DAYS 3 AND\r\n4...BEFORE THE RIDGE FILLS BACK IN FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A LITTLE\r\nMORE WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT REMAINS TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH JOSEPHINE IS EXPERIENCING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR OF 20 TO 25 KT...THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF\r\nMODERATE DIFLUENCE IN SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW THAT IS SITUATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN JOSEPHINE AND MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IKE. THIS UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE\r\nWESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH JOSEPHINE AND IKE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...\r\nAFTER WHICH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FILL AND\r\nLIFT OUT TO THE NORTH. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nINDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AFTER\r\nTHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL BY HOLDING THE\r\nINTENSITY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...IF\r\nJOSEPHINE REMAINS NEAR OR SOUTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW\r\nAND WEAK SHEAR...WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THIS\r\nSCENARIO WILL BE EVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 14.2N  31.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.5N  32.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.0N  35.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.7N  37.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N  39.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.9N  42.8W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  47.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N  51.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0754 UTC SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING 50 KT\r\nWIND.  HOWEVER...THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT AT THAT TIME\r\nHAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF SMALL AREAS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT JOSEPHINE HAS WEAKENED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOSEPHINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE\r\nRIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JOSEPHINE TO MAKE A NORTHWARD JOG AT\r\n72-96 HR...BEFORE THE RIDGE FILLS BACK IN FORCING THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nLITTLE MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS.  THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE UKMET BEING THE\r\nSLOWEST...THE GFDL AND HWRF BEING THE FASTEST...AND THE OTHER\r\nMODELS IN BETWEEN.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED\r\nBETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TRACK CONTINUES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nJOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR DUE TO THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR WHILE JOSEPHINE\r\nMOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS... THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nWEAKENING...THEN MAINTAINS A 40 KT INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HR.  SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR DURING THIS TIME DUE TO\r\nCONVECTIVE BURSTS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THIS.  ON THE BASIS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR DECREASES AS JOSEPHINE REACHES WARMER WATERS...THE FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL... ALTHOUGH IT IS ABOVE ALL THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT SHIFOR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 14.5N  32.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.9N  33.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 15.3N  35.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.8N  36.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.4N  38.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N  42.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N  46.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 21.5N  50.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nCLOUDS THAT IS VOID OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  INDEED...THE ONLY\r\nCONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME ARE A FEW CELLS WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT JOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE\r\nABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35-40 KT WINDS SEEN IN AN ASCAT\r\nPASS NEAR 12Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9.  AGAIN...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOSEPHINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE\r\nRIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JOSEPHINE TO MAKE A NORTHWARD JOG AT\r\n72-96 HR...BEFORE THE RIDGE FILLS BACK IN FORCING THE CYCLONE A\r\nLITTLE MORE WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE SPEED THIS TIME...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nDIRECTION.  THE BAMD...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF CALL FOR A\r\nNORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE UKMET...GFS...AND BAMS ARE AT THE\r\nOTHER EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE CALLING FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES\r\nALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nUKMET AND BAMS.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHETHER THE SHEAR\r\nOVER JOSEPHINE WILL LET UP.  THE GFS FORECASTS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 48 HR...WHILE THE UKMET FORECAST A\r\nRATHER HOSTILE LOOKING UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER FOR\r\n60 HR BEFORE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES START INCREASING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING...THEN HOLDING\r\nJOSEPHINE AT 35 KT THROUGH 72 HR.  THEREAFTER...IF THE GFS/\r\nSHIPS MODELS ARE CORRECT ABOUT THE SHEAR DECREASING...SOME\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...FAVORED\r\nBY THE HWRF AND GFDN...IS THAT JOSEPHINE COULD DISSIPATE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT PERSIST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 14.6N  33.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.9N  34.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 15.3N  35.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.8N  37.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N  39.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N  43.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N  47.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 22.0N  50.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING IN A STAIR STEPPED FASHION DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS BUT A 12 HR AVERAGE YIELDS 290/09.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS STEERED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS FORECASTING A MORE POLEWARD TRACK WHILE THE UKMET...\r\nGFS...MODELS KEEP JOSEPHINE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.  SINCE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BUT STILL LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST WHICH IS\r\nINHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.  WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG\r\nFOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE SSTS FALL ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK... SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  HOWEVER...IF\r\nJOSEPHINE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nCOULD BECOME MORE  FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT...SOME OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER JOSEPHINE\r\nAND THE SSTS RISE ALONG THE FORECAST.  STILL...NONE OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS ACTUALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATING. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JOSEPHINE WILL SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO\r\nREACH THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND SHOWS A LITTLE\r\nRESTRENGTHENING AT DAYS 3-5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 15.1N  33.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 15.4N  34.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 15.8N  36.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.5N  37.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N  39.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N  44.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N  48.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 23.5N  51.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN INCREASE IN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH STILL DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 45 KT AND IS DERIVED FROM A\r\nBLEND OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE SHEAR PATTERN. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRODUCED BY AN UPPER\r\nLEVEL LOW MOVING IN TANDEM TO THE WEST.  CONSEQUENTLY...GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3. \r\nAFTERWARD...THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH\r\nWILL FILL ENOUGH TO LESSEN THE SHEAR CAUSING JOSEPHINE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN A BIT.  IN FACT...THE UKMET ACTUALLY INDICATES AN\r\nANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM AROUND DAY 5 JUST NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL.   \r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE IS MOVING WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A WEAKENED\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH.  A 0422Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW\r\nESTIMATED AT 305/8.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL\r\nBREAK DOWN FURTHER DURING WITHIN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE HWRF ACTUALLY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nWEAKNESS DEVELOPING AND TURNS JOSEPHINE MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS ARE INDICATING A REESTABLISHMENT OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF\r\nTHE RIDGE WHICH MAY TURN JOSEPHINE BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nSHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 15.7N  34.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.1N  35.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.8N  36.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 17.8N  38.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  40.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  44.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  47.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 25.5N  50.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON JOSEPHINE\r\nTHIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EVIDENT ON VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF A BLOW-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND\r\n1000Z. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS BECOME MUCH FARTHER SEPARATED\r\nAND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. ACCORDINGLY...\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 40 KT...A CONSENSUS OF THESE ESTIMATES. JOSEPHINE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THIS SYSTEM MOVES IN TANDEM WITH\r\nJOSEPHINE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES\r\nAND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO\r\nRESTRENGTHEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A 12 HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n300/7...BUT IT HAS MOVED MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nINFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS STEERED BY A\r\nBUILDING LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS NUDGED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND TOWARD THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 15.8N  34.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.2N  35.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  37.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 18.0N  39.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 19.2N  41.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  45.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 23.5N  48.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 25.5N  51.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Josephine","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. NEARLY ALL\r\nOF THE CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT. JOSEPHINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WEST IN\r\nTANDEM WITH THE STORM. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN\r\nAND IF THERE IS ANYTHING LEFT OF JOSEPHINE IT WILL HAVE AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE\r\nJOSEPHINE MAY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THESE SCENARIOS HOLDING JOSEPHINE STEADY STATE. \r\n\r\nJOSEPHINE HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH\r\nPERHAPS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A LOW TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS FORECAST IS\r\nVERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 16.0N  35.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 16.4N  36.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.3N  37.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  39.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  41.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 22.0N  45.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 24.0N  48.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 26.0N  51.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Josephine","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED\r\nABOUT 120 NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF JOSEPHINE...THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBEEN UNABLE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS. IN MOST CASES A SYSTEM LIKE THIS\r\nWOULD NORMALLY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. SINCE THERE APPEARS TO BE\r\nSOME CHANCE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED FOR NOW. ADVISORIES COULD BE\r\nDISCONTINUED SOON...BUT COULD ALWAYS BE RESTARTED AGAIN IF THE\r\nSYSTEM RE-INTENSIFIES DOWN THE ROAD.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF JOSEPHINE ARE NOT ALL THAT GREAT.\r\nTHERMODYNAMICALLY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF LOW\r\nOCEAN HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. DYNAMICALLY...\r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST AND AN\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF JOSEPHINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE FOR\r\nANOTHER 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME\r\nWEAKENING...ON THE VERGE OF A REMNANT LOW...THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...CONDITIONS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AND THE FORECAST ALLOWS\r\nFOR THIS BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS SHOW JOSEPHINE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 4-5\r\nDAYS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF ANYTHING SURVIVES THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE ACCEPTING THIS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nJOSEPHINE IS MOVING SLOWLY AT 295/6. WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A\r\nSHALLOWER SYSTEM AND STEERED INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW...THE FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 16.3N  35.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.8N  36.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.6N  38.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.7N  40.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.8N  43.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 22.0N  46.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 24.0N  49.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 25.5N  52.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Josephine","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED FOR HEADER...\r\n\r\nJOSEPHINE HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SUBSTANTIAL\r\nSOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS FLARING UP IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER CAN BE CONSIDERED A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW OF JOSEPHINE IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT SOUTH\r\nOF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS IT ADVECTS\r\nALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSEST TO BAM-SHALLOW.\r\n\r\nWITH THE STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS\r\nBECAUSE OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW NORTHWEST OF JOSEPHINE...\r\nREGENERATION OF THE SYSTEM BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT\r\nLIKELY.  HOWEVER...AT DAYS 3 AND 4 ALL GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW THE\r\nSHEAR RELAXING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM JOSEPHINE'S\r\nREMNANTS.  DESPITE THIS...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST ANY\r\nREGENERATION OF THE CYCLONE AT THE LONGER RANGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AGREES WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND KEEPS JOSEPHINE\r\nDISSIPATED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 16.8N  36.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N  38.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.5N  40.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 19.7N  42.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 20.9N  44.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 23.5N  48.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PLAGUED PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA\r\nWITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BETTER-DEFINED LOW CLOUD\r\nCIRCULATION THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALTHOUGH THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL\r\nA BIT ELONGATED...THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED 1000 FT WINDS AS HIGH\r\nAS 51 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THEREFORE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEING CLASSIFIED AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THIS\r\nFIRST ADVISORY.  SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT\r\nTHE STRENGTHENING OF KYLE BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...MORE OR LESS AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH OR 010/7.  HOWEVER THE\r\nEASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE TO SOME REFORMATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER TOWARD THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A MAINLY NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER LOW OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. AND A DEVELOPING HIGH TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.  THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS REFLECTED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 23.5N  68.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.2N  68.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 27.7N  68.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 31.0N  69.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  69.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 43.0N  67.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 50.0N  60.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 53.0N  53.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 25 2008\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WHICH WAS INVESTIGATING KYLE\r\nEARLIER THIS EVENING MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF\r\n994 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT.  THERE WERE ALSO A\r\nFEW SFMR RETRIEVALS NEAR 55 KT...BUT THE FLIGHT METEOROLOGIST ON\r\nBOARD ESTIMATED THAT THESE MEASUREMENTS WERE LIKELY ABOUT 10 KT TOO\r\nHIGH. IN ADDITION...A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION USING THE SHEAR PATTERN\r\nWOULD YIELD A DATA-T NUMBER OF 3.0. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION\r\nUNANIMOUSLY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT KYLE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS\r\nNOW MOVING AT 010/11. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS ADVECTED NORTHWARD BETWEEN A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF BERMUDA AND THE LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  MODEL AGREEMENT IS\r\nEXCEPTIONAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT\r\nWAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS\r\nDIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...DURING WHICH ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIS EXPECTED. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DIMINISH AFTER THAT AND KYLE WILL\r\nHAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER WARM WATERS AT A FAIRLY SPEEDY CLIP. THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM...HWRF...FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...AND CONTINUITY. HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nMAKE KYLE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. KYLE WILL THEN CROSS NORTH OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM AFTER 48 HOURS AND SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN ONCE\r\nKYLE MOVES ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 72 HOURS WITH THE\r\nPROCESS COMPLETED BY 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR KYLE IN CASE THERE IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE EXPECTED TRACK.  IN\r\nADDITION...PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 24.8N  68.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N  68.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.2N  68.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 32.4N  68.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 36.3N  68.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 44.5N  65.5W    60 KT...INLAND...NOVA SCOTIA\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 50.0N  60.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB SLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 63 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS ROUGHLY EQUAL TO A\r\n47-KT SURFACE WIND. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 50 AND 53 KT\r\nWERE MEASURED BENEATH THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...SO A BLEND\r\nOF THESE VALUES YIELDS AN AVERAGE SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 50\r\nKT. THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE 997 MB CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE THAT WAS MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE. \r\n \r\nRECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THE MOTION IS NOW\r\n350/10 KT. AS HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF KYLE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH WITH EVENTUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS NOT AS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THAT. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...THERE REMAINS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nEXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE POINT OF RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. 00Z\r\nUPPER-AIR HEIGHT DATA FROM BERMUDA WAS IN ERROR TO DUE A BAD\r\nBASELINE...BUT THE 00Z MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE FILTERED OUT THIS\r\nERRONEOUS MASS FIELD DATA. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA WAS GOOD...AND\r\nTHE BACKING WIND FLOW FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INDICATES THAT\r\nRIDGING COMING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING. ALSO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS ARE FORECASTING AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. AND A MUCH LARGER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE AZORES.\r\nSINCE OMEGA BLOCKS ARE GENERALLY STABLE PATTERNS...THE MODELS MAY\r\nBE BREAKING DOWN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE SOUTH OF NOVA\r\nSCOTIA TOO QUICKLY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PREMATURE RECURVATURE BY\r\nTHE MODELS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY ALSO HAVE TO BE\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE U.S. CAPE COD AREA\r\nSIMILAR TO THE 00Z GFS...GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL\r\nRUNS. ONLY THE UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP KYLE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S.\r\n\r\nSHEARED DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. ONCE KYLE TURNS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...THE\r\nVERTICAL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND\r\nMORE ALIGNED WITH THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER UNTIL KYLE\r\nREACHES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH MUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF GULFSTREAM...THE FAST\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nDECREASE IN INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE HWRF MODEL.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 25.6N  68.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 27.5N  68.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 30.5N  69.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 34.0N  69.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 38.5N  69.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 45.7N  66.3W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 51.0N  61.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008\r\n \r\nKYLE IS SHOWING A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHILE\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATES BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 45 KT.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 340/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KYLE\r\nIS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER\r\nLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...KYLE MAY TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END\r\nOF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE.  SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO HOW FAST THE\r\nNORTHERN END OF THE RIDGE MAY WEAKEN AND HOW SOON KYLE MAY ACQUIRE\r\nAN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AS SOME OF THE GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW\r\nA STRONGER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OPERATIONAL\r\nMODEL.  HOWEVER...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE OVER\r\nNORTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY\r\nDECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE\r\nTO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY.  AFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER\r\nSTRONG...BUT DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE\r\nRESULTING SHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE\r\nTRYING TO STRENGTHEN IT.  WHICH OF THESE INFLUENCES WILL BE THE\r\nSTRONGEST IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR KYLE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY DURING THE FIRST 48 HR IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH MOST GUIDANCE...BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER 48\r\nHR...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM INTO VERY\r\nCOLD WATER.  WHILE THIS AND THE EXPECTED ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE KYLE TO WEAKEN...IT MAY STILL BE OF\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES NEW ENGLAND OR THE\r\nMARITIMES.  AFTER LANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL...EVENTUALLY BEING ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 26.4N  68.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 28.6N  69.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 31.7N  69.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 35.5N  69.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 46.5N  66.0W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 52.0N  62.0W    40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT KYLE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH\r\nTHE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS AT 850 MB AND 700 MB DISPLACED TO THE\r\nNORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER BY 15-20 KT OF WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1003\r\nMB...AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE AIR FORCE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB...WITH SFMR\r\nWINDS OF 45-48 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nAFTER A NUDGE TO THE LEFT THIS MORNING...KYLE HAS MADE A NUDGE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE 12 HR MOTION AND ADVISORY MOTION IS\r\n345/11...BUT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION IS ALMOST DUE NORTH.  KYLE\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC...AND SOON SHOULD PASS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A DEEP-LAYER\r\nLOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS KYLE TO\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN\r\nBRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES AND THE NORTHERN END OF THE ATLANTIC\r\nRIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD\r\nWESTERN NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH MOST OF GUIDANCE\r\nNOW SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN PREVIOUSLY. \r\nBASED ON THE NEW GUIDANCE AND THE INITIAL POSITION/MOTION...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  HOWEVER...IT LIES ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIF ANYTHING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLEX THAN IT\r\nWAS 6 HOURS AGO.  THE CURRENT SHEAR MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW KYLE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. \r\nAFTER THAT...KYLE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG...BUT\r\nDIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW....WITH THE RESULTING\r\nSHEAR TRYING TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND THE DIVERGENCE TRYING TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN IT.  A NEW COMPLICATION IS A COLD AIR MASS APPROACHING\r\nKYLE FROM THE EAST...WHICH IF IT REACHES THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING OR A FASTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  DESPITE THE\r\nNEGATIVE FACTORS...THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS CALL FOR KYLE\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KT IN 36 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...KYLE WILL MOVE OVER COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nBEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  KYLE SHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AFTER\r\nLANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED IN A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM OVER EASTERN CANADA.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 27.6N  68.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 29.5N  69.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 32.6N  69.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 36.5N  69.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 40.3N  67.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 47.5N  64.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 52.0N  62.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. A\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE BETWEEN\r\n992 AND 995 MB AND A SPOT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KNOTS NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. THERE IS STILL NO EVIDENCE OF STRONG WINDS WITHIN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SINCE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE SHEAR\r\nCURRENTLY AFFECTING KYLE WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE. KYLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ONCE IT MOVES OVER THE COLD\r\nWATERS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AS\r\nKYLE CROSSES THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AND HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED TO 14 KNOTS. KYLE IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH TO THE EAST AND A STRONG DEEP LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN FAVORS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK WITH\r\nA CONTINUED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR OR OVER NOVA\r\nSCOTIA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN FACT...DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS KYLE WELL EAST OF NEW\r\nENGLAND...INTERESTS IN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF KYLE.  THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD DEFINITELY BE\r\nMORE ON GUARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 29.4N  68.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 31.5N  69.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 34.8N  69.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 38.5N  68.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 42.5N  66.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 49.0N  63.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE RECON REPORTS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH AND\r\nSTRUCTURE OF KYLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THERE WERE TWO REPORTS\r\nOF 70 KT AT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH\r\nWOULD TYPICALLY CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 55 KT SURFACE WINDS. SFMR WINDS\r\nIN THAT SAME AREA ALSO ONLY SUPPORT ABOUT 55 KT. HOWEVER...THE\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OCCURRED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nMOST INTENSE CONVECTION...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT STRONGER WINDS MAY\r\nHAVE BEEN MISSED ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLIGHT LEG. THE HIGHER\r\nLATITUDE AND INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST ALSO SUPPORTS\r\nKEEPING THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE STANDARD\r\nPRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR A 996 MB PRESSURE WOULD SUPPORT.\r\n \r\nKYLE HAS MADE A SHORT TERM JOG TO THE NORTHWEST...OR 330 DEGREES AS\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A 9-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION YIELDS 345/14...\r\nAND THAT IS WHAT WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. KYLE REMAINS WEDGED\r\nBETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEEP-LAYER BUT\r\nWEAKENING LOW TO THE WEST OVER WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THE COMBINED\r\nSOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE KYLE NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE VARIOUS SURFACE TRACKS HAVE SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD DUE TO THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BEING STRONGER THAN\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...\r\nSOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT TIME AND LOCATION OF\r\nRECURVATURE OF KYLE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS DELAYED BY JUST 6 HOURS ...THEN KYLE WOULD\r\nPASS CLOSER TO CAPE COD THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF KYLE\r\nCONTINUES TO AMPLIFY NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES REGION. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN CONTRAST TO\r\nWHAT THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS\r\nWILL HAVE TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.\r\nAS A RESULT...WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION LATER THIS\r\nMORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE WARMED. ONE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF KYLE LATE YESTERDAY ALLOWED THE CYCLONE TO BRIEFLY\r\nINTENSIFY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS\r\nLIFTING NORTHWARD AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. ONCE THIS SYSTEM\r\nPASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF KYLE AND RELIEVES PRESSURE ON THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF THE CYCLONE...AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE SHOULD RESUME AND\r\nKYLE IS EXPECTED BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER TODAY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND OF THE ICON...SHIPS...AND THE\r\nGFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 30.5N  69.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 33.0N  69.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 36.8N  69.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 41.0N  68.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 44.9N  66.7W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 50.5N  64.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF KYLE\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT KYLE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nAFFECTED BY ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ABOUT TO REACH THE CENTER OF KYLE\r\nTO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nKYLE CONTINUES IT ZIG-ZAG PATH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH\r\nTHE NORTHWEST JOG SEEN EARLIER NOW BEING FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER\r\nNORTHWARD JOG.  THE SMOOTHED 12-HR MOTION USED IN THE ADVISORY IS\r\n345/13.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 12-24 HR OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS\r\nTHE WESTERLIES.  THE TIMING OF THIS TURN WILL DETERMINE IF THE\r\nCENTER OF KYLE MAKES LANDFALL IN MAINE...OR WHETHER IT MAKES\r\nLANDFALL IN NEW BRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  WHILE THE OVERALL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE LEFT FROM THEIR PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS AND NOW CALL FOR A LANDFALL IN MAINE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR THE\r\nCENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK IN ABOUT\r\n48 HR.  THE TRACK LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.\r\n\r\nKYLE IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH\r\nWOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE\r\nWOULD ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nALL FORECAST KYLE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COLD\r\nWATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM IN 24-36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER KYLE REACHES THE COLDER WATER...IT\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITIONS.  KYLE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER EASTERN CANADA BY 72 HR AND\r\nBE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 96 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE WATCHES FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 32.1N  69.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 34.7N  69.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 38.8N  68.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 43.0N  67.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 46.7N  66.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 51.0N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALONG\r\nWITH ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 65-75 KT FROM THE SFMR.  WHILE SOME\r\nOF THE HIGHER SFMR VALUES LOOK SUSPECT...THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS\r\nCOVERED A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING KYLE TO A 65-KT\r\nHURRICANE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE TODAY...WITH THE CENTER\r\nREMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE RANGING FROM 995-999 MB.  THUS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nINCREASED WINDS ARE MORE RELATED TO THE INCREASE IN THE FORWARD\r\nMOTION THAN ANY INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.\r\n\r\nKYLE HAS ACCELERATED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/20.  KYLE REMAINS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER KYLE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AS KYLE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  WHILE THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL\r\nEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...\r\nAND ECMWF HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND\r\nCALL FOR THE CENTER OF KYLE TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EITHER NEW\r\nBRUNSWICK OR NOVA SCOTIA.  SEEING THAT THE GUIDANCE SHOWED A RIGHT\r\nSHIFT YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND A LEFT SHIFT LAST NIGHT...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN CLOSE THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALL\r\nFOR LANDFALL NEAR THE MAINE-NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER IN ABOUT 36 HR. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AFTER 48 HR\r\nAS KYLE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nSHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nKYLE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG...AND DIVERGENT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE WINDS SUGGESTS CONTINUED SHEAR...WHICH WOULD\r\nINHIBIT STRENGTHENING...WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE WOULD\r\nENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS \r\nFORECAST SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE KYLE REACHES COLD SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 18-24 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW SUIT...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR\r\nAND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER UNTIL LANDFALL.  AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...KYLE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MAINE AT THIS TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 34.3N  69.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 37.2N  69.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 41.3N  68.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 45.3N  66.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 48.3N  65.3W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 51.5N  64.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008\r\n \r\nKYLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A VERY ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN FOR A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES\r\nDECREASED A LITTLE...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND THE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED DURING THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND KYLE\r\nREMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nSAMPLING THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE VERY STRONG...BUT DIVERGENT FLOW\r\nOVER THE HURRICANE.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OVER THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS\r\nAND KYLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THIS TIME.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CALL FOR ANY\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  KYLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER\r\nSSTS NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM WITHIN 24 HOURS...SO THE NEW FORECAST\r\nNOW SHOWS SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO KYLE REACHING THE COAST.  THIS\r\nFOLLOWS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINS KYLE AS A HURRICANE\r\nFOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...THEN SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.\r\nHOWEVER...ONE SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THERE IS LITTLE PRACTICAL\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65 KT HURRICANE.\r\nKYLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SOON AFTER REACHING\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CANADA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/20 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE\r\nTO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ONCE\r\nAGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGE A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT SPREAD AS KYLE\r\nINTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS\r\nDECELERATION DURING THAT TIME...BUT IT IS EXPECTED THAT KYLE WILL\r\nBE ABSORBED BY THE FRONT SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 36.2N  69.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 39.5N  68.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 43.7N  67.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  65.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 49.2N  64.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.0N  63.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008\r\n \r\nKYLE EMERGED FROM THE SATELLITE ECLIPSE PERIOD LOOKING RATHER UGLY\r\nFROM A CONVECTION PERSPECTIVE. HOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION\r\nNEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH SUPPORTIVE RECON WIND DATA\r\nTO KEEP THE CYCLONE DESIGNATED AS A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND SPEED MEASURED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WAS 80\r\nKT AND THE MAXIMUM SFMR SURFACE WIND SPEED OBSERVED WAS 61 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...THESE TWO WIND SPEED VALUES WERE NOT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO\r\nHAVING BEEN OBSERVED IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION. DROPSONDE WIND\r\nPROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS. THE TWO CENTER\r\nDROPS REVEALED LIGHT WINDS AT FLIGHT-LEVEL WITH UP TO 52 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE ALONG WITH A PRESSURE VALUE OF 1001 MB. USING A 1 MB PER 10\r\nKT REDUCTION FACTOR YIELDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF APPROXIMATELY 996\r\nMB. ALTHOUGH THE 80-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN A\r\nSURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 73 KT...THE SEVERELY TILTED STRUCTURE AND\r\nDEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS INSTEAD COMPELLED ME TO USE A BLEND\r\nOF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND PEAK SFMR WIND SPEEDS TO ESTIMATE THE\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WIND SPEED TO BE 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS VALUE COULD\r\nBE ADJUSTED IN THE POST-STORM ANALYSIS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/21 KT. RECON FIX DATA SHOWS THAT\r\nKYLE REMAINS ON TRACK.  WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nKYLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nAND IS BEING LIFTED NORTHWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN\r\nA LARGE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST SITUATED\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE GULF OR\r\nMAINE AND BAY OF FUNDY AS KYLE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE NORTHWEST\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE RIDGE. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nPOST-ECLIPSE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS BECOMING\r\nCONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR. KYLE IS ALSO ABOUT 6-9 HOURS AWAY FROM REACHING MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATERS THAT NORTH OF THE GULFSTREAM THAT IS POSITIONED ALONG\r\n40N LATITUDE. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS COULD DECOUPLE BEFORE KYLE REACHES ANY\r\nLAND AREAS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND\r\nPREDICTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 38.4N  69.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 41.5N  68.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 45.2N  66.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 48.0N  64.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  64.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 50.8N  63.3W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KYLE IS BEGINNING TO EVOLVE INTO A LESS\r\nTROPICAL-LOOKING SYSTEM.  THE CLOUD BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE CENTER LOOKS SOMEWHAT FRONTAL...SO KYLE IS PROBABLY\r\nSTARTING TO MAKE AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...IN\r\nPARTICULAR DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS WHICH SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nSURFACE WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 75 KT JUST BEFORE 12Z. \r\nDATA BUOYS 44011 AND 44024 ARE VERY NEAR THE PROJECTED PATH OF\r\nKYLE...AND THESE PLATFORMS SHOULD BE USEFUL IN ASSESSING THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER SUB 15 DEG C WATERS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL\r\nLARGELY ELIMINATE THE OCEANIC ENERGY SOURCE.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH\r\nAS WELL...WITH THE THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS THE CYCLONE BECOMING\r\nNEGLIGIBLE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  IN FACT THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS ALSO SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT KYLE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...\r\n020/21...IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND AND IS A LITTLE EAST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  THIS IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST GFDL RUN.\r\n\r\nIF THE CURRENT TREND IN THE TRACK OF KYLE CONTINUES...THE HURRICANE\r\nWATCH FOR MAINE COULD BE DISCONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 40.4N  67.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 43.3N  66.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 46.3N  64.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 48.5N  63.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 50.0N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 51.5N  63.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kyle","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008\r\n\r\nKYLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING...A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND\r\nSTRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE SYSTEM...AND AN ASYMMETRIC\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  EARLIER TODAY...AT ABOUT 1600 UTC...NOAA\r\nDATA BUOY 44011 REPORTED A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 51 KT WITH A\r\nGUST TO 72 KT AT AN INSTRUMENT HEIGHT OF 5 METERS.  THE BUOY ALSO\r\nREPORTED 36-FOOT SEAS WHICH LIKELY CAUSED SOME SHELTERING OF THE\r\nANEMOMETER...AND UNDER-REPORTING OF THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  THE\r\nBUOY ALSO REPORTED A LOWEST PRESSURE OF 987.1 WITH WINDS OF 31\r\nKT...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 984 MB.  THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KYLE MAINTAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DETERIORATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN AND COLDER WATERS...KYLE MAY NOW JUST BARELY BE AT\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE\r\nMUCH OF A BAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCE...I.E. THICKNESS GRADIENT ACROSS\r\nTHE CYCLONE... AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM IN A DAY OR TWO. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY THE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 030/22.  IN SPITE OF THE RECENT\r\nACCELERATION...THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED WILL SLOW WITHIN 12 HOURS AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES AWAY\r\nFROM THE AREA AND THE STEERING WINDS WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 42.7N  66.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 45.1N  64.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 47.7N  63.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 49.5N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 50.5N  63.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kyle","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE OR NO DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH KYLE...AND THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE.  CONSEQUENTLY...KYLE IS CONSIDERED TO BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nAT 23Z SHOWED ONE HURRICANE FORCE WIND VECTOR.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE ASSUMED TO HAVE DECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nARE NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER NEW BRUNSWICK.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/23...WHICH IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\nHIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF KYLE IS BEING ERODED BY THE LARGE LOW\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND AS A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE\r\nBYPASSES KYLE TO THE NORTH ITS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE MISSED THE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD TURN THIS EVENING...AND AS A RESULT I'VE PLACED THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 18Z UKMET.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 44.8N  65.9W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 47.2N  64.6W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 49.5N  63.7W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 50.6N  63.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 51.5N  64.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2008\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -70C HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nINCREASE AND HAS STARTED WRAPPING AROUND AND VERY NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF THE LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 775 NMI\r\nWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST AZORES ISLANDS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER NOW FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM. THE 06Z SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB WAS\r\nST3.0/45 KT...BUT USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM\r\nYIELDS NEARLY EIGHT TENTHS BANDING...OR T3.5/55 KT. SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 50 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A FEW\r\n50-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN A 28/2133Z\r\nQUIKSCAT HI-RES OVERPASS. HOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT\r\nOVERPASS... CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY AND IS NOW THE SOLID\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA MOVING TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND ACCELERATING AS THE INCIPIENT\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WEAKENS AND OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH AND GETS\r\nLIFTED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTH-SOUTH\r\nORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS. AFTER\r\nREACHING THE HIGHER LATITUDES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...LAURA IS FORECAST\r\nTO GET PICKED BY THE FAST WESTERLIES AND MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD AS\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nLAURA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 25C-26C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAND ALSO BE UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT\r\nTREND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER CONTINUES...THEN\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION OVER TO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND BECOME A HURRICANE WITH A BANDING EYE FEATURE LATER\r\nTODAY. BY 36 HOURS...LAURA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING ALONG WITH A GRADUAL\r\nTRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND ICON INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 37.2N  47.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 38.0N  48.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 39.8N  48.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 41.7N  48.8W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 44.0N  48.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 51.5N  44.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 58.0N  34.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 57.0N  21.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2008\r\n \r\nAN 0852 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS OVER LAURA CONFIRMED THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT WITHIN A SWATH LOCATED ABOUT 75 NM EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF ST3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nALSO SUPPORT THIS INITIAL INTENSITY.  A PRONOUNCED CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nNOW CURLS ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE EAST AND NORTH\r\nOF THE LARGE CIRCULATION BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS BROAD AND\r\nILL-DEFINED WITH SEVERAL INTERNAL SMALLER SWIRLS.  WITH THE\r\nIMPROVED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...A CASE COULD BE MADE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nLAURA IS BEGINNING TO MAKE A MORE PRONOUNCED POLEWARD TURN AS IT\r\nMOVES BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AZORES AND THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF HURRICANE KYLE OVER THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO BUT THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nDOES NOT GO AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND INSTEAD\r\nLIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFS AND\r\nGFDL.  LAURA WILL LIKELY BE PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 3 AND THEN ACCELERATE\r\nEASTWARD WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW...POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE\r\nBRITISH ISLES AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n\r\nOCEAN WATERS ARE MARGINALLY WARM NEAR LAURA...BUT APPEAR TO BE JUST\r\nWARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INCREASED CONVECTION.  IF THE CONVECTION CAN\r\nWRAP CLOSER TO THE CENTER...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW.  THEREFORE...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS JUST BEFORE LAURA MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY\r\nLOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS\r\nRATHER UNIMPRESSED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION WHEREAS\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS LAURA STRENGTHENING TO 80 KT BY DAY 4 OR\r\n5...PRIMARILY DUE TO A STRONG CONTRIBUTION FROM COLD UPPER LEVEL\r\nTEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 37.4N  47.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 38.1N  48.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 39.8N  48.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 41.8N  47.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 44.4N  46.6W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 51.5N  41.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 55.5N  30.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 55.0N  15.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1326 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nNEAR 45 KT...BUT THIS SENSOR USUALLY TENDS TO HAVE A SLIGHT LOW\r\nBIAS SO AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS PACKAGE. \r\nLAURA CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH THE\r\nFSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS AND AMSU DATA BOTH INDICATING A DEEP WARM\r\nCORE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS NOT ALL\r\nTHAT DEEP AND THE 75 NM RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS IN THE GRAY ZONE\r\nBETWEEN TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL.  LAURA WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THE TRANSITION\r\nTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY OCCURRING.\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT LAURA IS TURNING AND\r\nACCELERATING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/8.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING\r\nTHE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF...HAVE SHIFTED LEFT SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIF LAURA IS BECOMING MORE TROPICAL...IT HAS A CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS\r\nBUT THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING ONCE LAURA BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND MOVES INTO A COLDER AIR MASS...MUCH LIKE AN\r\nOCCLUDED LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE. LAURA WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nBY 36 HOURS AND THEN COULD BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE BY\r\nDAY 5 WEST OF IRELAND...ALTHOUGH A POINT AT THAT TIME IS STILL\r\nGIVEN FOR CONTINUITY.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 38.3N  48.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 39.3N  48.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 41.2N  48.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 43.6N  47.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 46.5N  46.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 52.5N  41.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 55.0N  28.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 55.0N  12.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2008\r\n \r\nOVERALL THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE BELOW THEIR EARLIER PEAKS.  INDEED...THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS QUITE PALTRY AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nFROM 21Z CAUGHT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THESE\r\nDATA STILL SUPPORT 45-50 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nUNCHANGED. EVEN THOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS AROUND 70 N\r\nMI...SMALLER THAN FOR MANY SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES... LAURA IS STILL\r\nVERY MUCH INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LOW...WHICH IS A DEFINING\r\nCHARACTERISTIC OF A SUBTROPICAL STORM. I'M NOT INCLINED TO CALL\r\nTHIS THING FULLY TROPICAL UNTIL IT DOES A BETTER JOB OF ERODING THE\r\nUPPER LOW. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THE UPPER-LOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN AS LAURA MOVES INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND LAURA STILL COULD\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP\r\nDRAMATICALLY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.  WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED ONCE THAT HAPPENS...ALTHOUGH BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF\r\nSUGGEST THAT LAURA COULD INTENSIFY AND EXPAND AS AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW.  BASED ON THIS LATTER GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE\r\nBEEN EXPANDED AT 48 AND 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nLAURA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...360/8...BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF\r\nHIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AZORES AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nEASTERN CANADA THAT CONTAINS THE REMNANTS OF KYLE.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LAURA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD BETWEEN\r\nTHESE FEATURES AND ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND A\r\nLITTLE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 39.0N  48.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 40.3N  48.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 42.6N  47.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 45.3N  46.8W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 53.5N  39.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 55.0N  13.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008\r\n \r\nLAURA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTIVE BANDS AROUND THE CENTER...WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60C TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WARM CORE...SUGGESTING THAT LAURA IS BECOMING MORE TROPICAL. \r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS STILL\r\nSTRONGLY INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  ALSO...THERE ARE NO\r\nSIGNS OF THE ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHARACTERISTIC OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS STILL DESIGNATED A\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED\r\nSINCE 6 HR AGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  \r\n\r\nLAURA HAS JOGGED TO THE LEFT AND ACCELERATED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 350/11.  OTHER THAN THAT...\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH NEW\r\nENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD STEER LAURA GENERALLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP\r\nRIGHT TURN AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  WHILE THERE IS\r\nTHE NORMAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...IT ALL AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.\r\n\r\nLAURA WILL BE MOVING OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO\r\nENCOUNTER SSTS OF 12C BY 36 HR.  THIS SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE FALLING SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION TO\r\nDECREASE.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BETWEEN 24-48 HR...AND AFTER THIS IS COMPLETE THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A BAROCLINIC\r\nLOW.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST LAURA TO PRODUCE STORM-FORCE...50 KT...WINDS AS\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  BASED ON THIS...THE 120 HR FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS PERSIST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 40.3N  49.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 42.0N  48.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 44.6N  47.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 47.5N  46.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 50.6N  44.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 55.0N  37.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 56.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 56.0N  10.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008\r\n \r\nWHILE SOMEWHAT OF A PARADOX...LAURA CAN NOW BE DESIGNATED AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWARD OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS.  THE ONE ASPECT WHICH\r\nWAS HOLDING US BACK FROM DECLARING IT TROPICAL WAS THE UPPER LOW\r\nCOLLOCATED WITH THE SYSTEM.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nTHIS FEATURE HAS BECOME OFFSET AND STRETCHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nLAURA...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW EXPANDING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTINUED TO CONTRACT TO ABOUT 60 NM. \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE NOT ALL THAT COLD...BUT THAT IS QUITE\r\nNORMAL FOR HIGH-LATITUDE TROPICAL CYCLONES DUE TO THE LOWER\r\nTROPOPAUSE.  FRANKLY...LAURA NOW LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT BASED ON AN 0827 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS HAS BEEN SHRINKING. \r\nLAURA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD THAT INTENSITY FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12\r\nHOURS OR SO BEFORE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN\r\n18C.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THERMAL ADVECTION AROUND\r\nTHE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE PROMINENT LATER TONIGHT...AND LAURA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT MIGRATES INTO\r\nTHE COLDER AIR MASS.  SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IS\r\nEXPECTED DUE TO THE COLDER OCEAN WATERS AND MARGINAL BAROCLINIC\r\nFORCING.  THEREAFTER...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING AND AN EXPANSION OF\r\nTHE WIND FIELD COULD OCCUR AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW RACES EAST\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN BRITISH\r\nISLES.  EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT\r\n36-48 HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FOR THIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 41.2N  48.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 42.8N  48.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 45.5N  47.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 48.7N  45.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 51.7N  43.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 56.0N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 57.0N  19.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 58.0N   3.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008\r\n \r\nA 1653 UTC CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE CONFIRMS THAT LAURA STILL\r\nHAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT. IN ADDITION...THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION OF THE STORM'S CENTRAL FEATURES HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nAPPRECIABLY SINCE THIS MORNING SO THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ALTHOUGH LAURA IS CURRENTLY A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SOME THERMAL ADVECTION IS\r\nBEGINNING TO OCCUR AS COLD AIR STRATUS CLOUDS WRAP AROUND THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...\r\nAND LAURA COULD BE FULLY NON-TROPICAL IN 18-24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 21C AND IS QUICKLY LOSING\r\nITS TROPICAL ENERGY SOURCE...SO SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...BAROCLINIC\r\nFORCING WILL BECOME MORE PROMINENT AS THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES...AND SOME RE-STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.\r\n\r\nLAURA IS NOW MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT 010/12.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 5 DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES...BUT AFTER THAT LAURA IS ACCELERATED EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.  A 120-HOUR POSITION IS NOT GIVEN IN THIS FORECAST\r\nSINCE IT WOULD BE LOCATED EAST OF THE PRIME MERIDIAN OVER THE NORTH\r\nSEA...AND THE LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY THEN\r\nANYWAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 42.3N  48.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 44.0N  48.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 46.8N  46.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 50.0N  45.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 53.1N  42.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 56.5N  31.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 57.0N  17.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2008\r\n \r\nI WAS TEMPTED TO TERMINATE ADVISORIES ON LAURA TONIGHT SINCE\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME MUCH LESS DISTINCT. HOWEVER...LAURA CANNOT BE CALLED A\r\nREMNANT LOW YET AND IT IS NOT EXTRATROPICAL ENOUGH TO BE CALLED\r\nONE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND\r\nCONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 45\r\nKNOTS. LAURA IS MOVING OVER COLD WATERS AND IS BECOMING INVOLVED\r\nWITH COLD AIR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LAURA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN 12 HOUR OR LESS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION OF THE LARGE HOLE ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE CENTER IS 015 AT 14 KNOTS. LAURA SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAHEAD OF A VERY DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IT\r\nSHOULD THEN TURN EASTWARD ADVECTED BY THE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 43.6N  48.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 45.5N  47.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  45.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 52.5N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 56.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 56.5N  13.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n500 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008\r\n \r\nLAURA IS NOT QUITE FRONTAL ENOUGH TO BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL...\r\nAND WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IT\r\nHAS NOT BEEN CONVECTION-LESS LONG ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED A REMNANT\r\nLOW.  SO...THIS IS NOT THE LAST ADVISORY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM TAFB AND TROPICAL 35 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 00Z SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS. \r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND\r\nTHIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  LAURA IS ENTRAINING COLD AIR ON THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTH SIDES...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN\r\nTHE NEXT 6-12 HR.  THEREFORE...BARRING AN UNLIKELY CONVECTIVE FLARE\r\nUP...THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14.  LAURA SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE MAIN PORTION OF THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 44.8N  47.6W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 47.0N  46.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 50.2N  45.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 53.6N  42.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 55.6N  36.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 56.5N  22.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 56.5N   7.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Laura","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LAURA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED OCT 01 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION REMAINS...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION FOR LAURA TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  I RATHER LIKE THE CANADIAN\r\nHURRICANE CENTER'S TERM POST-TROPICAL...WHICH SIMPLY MEANS NO\r\nLONGER TROPICAL...TO DESCRIBE WHAT LAURA HAS BECOME. THERE IS NOT\r\nREALLY ENOUGH EVIDENCE OF FRONTAL STRUCTURE YET TO CONSIDER LAURA\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN THE TRADITIONAL SENSE...AND SOME USERS MIGHT INFER\r\nA WEAK SYSTEM IF WE USED THE TERM REMNANT LOW...WHICH IS\r\nMOST-COMMONLY APPLIED TO DECAYING SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nBASIN.  \r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN\r\nNEAR 40 KT...PERHAPS EVEN A BIT HIGHER. A TRANSITION TO A FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STRUCTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND\r\nTHE GFS SUGGESTS SOME REINVIGORATION OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT\r\nOF LAURA IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS. OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...\r\nSHOWS THE CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR AN EXPANSION OF\r\nTHE WIND RADII IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS...BUT FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IN CARRYING A TRACK ONLY OUT TO 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 46.5N  46.5W    40 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 48.9N  45.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 52.2N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 55.0N  39.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 56.0N  33.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 56.5N  20.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...INDICATING\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT QUITE AT TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A REGION OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH DEVELOPING OUTFLOW. \r\nADDITIONALLY...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE QUITE WARM. \r\nACCORDINGLY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED PRIOR TO THE\r\nCYCLONE REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ONCE INLAND OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN OF MEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n280/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH\r\nLANDFALL.     \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 19.0N  94.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 19.4N  95.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 19.6N  96.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.7N  97.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marco","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n \r\nA TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...\r\nTASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nOVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 61 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\nABOUT 55 KT.  SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE\r\nSEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE\r\nWITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE\r\nWATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND\r\nCONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER\r\nTHIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN\r\nHEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF MARCO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nWE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK\r\nRESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 19.5N  94.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  95.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  97.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marco","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n \r\nMINIATURE MARCO HAS MAINTAINED ONE SMALL COLD-TOPPED THUNDERSTORM\r\nCLUSTER...ABOUT THE SIZE OF THE STATE OF DELAWARE...OVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT\r\nAT 55 KT IN LINE WITH THE LAST AIR FORCE RECON DATA...EVEN THOUGH\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB. I HAVE WORKED SOME TINY TYPHOONS IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC\r\nBEFORE...BUT HORIZONTALLY-CHALLENGED MARCO COULD BE THE SMALLEST\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/06. MARCO HAS REMAINED ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MARCO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MAKE\r\nLANDFALL IN 18 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH MARCO MAY BE SMALL IN STATURE...IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SMALL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT\r\nONLY HAS A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 4 NMI. SMALL SYSTEMS\r\nLIKE MARCO CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY...BUT THEY CAN ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST\r\nAS FAST. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW AND\r\nSSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE 28C UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nBRINGS MARCO UP TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS...AND UP TO 71\r\nKT IN 18 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE TO AGGRESSIVE AT THIS STAGE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STRONGER HWRF AND\r\nTHE WEAKER GFDL...WHICH KEEPS MARCO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 19.8N  95.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 20.2N  96.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.7N  97.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marco","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n \r\nWITH NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF MARCO IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE.  THE OVERALL\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION LOOKS ABOUT THE SAME AS WHEN THE AIRCRAFT\r\nWAS THERE LAST...SO I'LL LEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 55 KT. \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY ANOTHER 6-9 HOURS OVER WATER...SO SOME\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN CALLING\r\nFOR MARCO TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL.  AS WE HAVE\r\nNOTED PREVIOUSLY...HOWEVER...SMALL CYCLONES ARE PARTICULARLY\r\nSUBJECT TO LARGE AND MOSTLY UNPREDICTABLE CHANGES IN INTENSITY. \r\nEXAMINATION OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 0100 UTC\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE RADIAL EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS\r\nEXCEEDINGLY SMALL...PERHAPS NO MORE THAN ABOUT 10 NMI. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7.  A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF\r\nHIGH PRESSURE SEPARATES MARCO FROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS RIDGE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP MARCO ON\r\nBASICALLY THE SAME TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE\r\nSURPRISED IF THE TRACK BENDS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...WHICH WOULD\r\nKEEP MARCO OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UKMET AND BAM GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 20.1N  96.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  97.1W    60 KT...JUST INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.9N  98.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marco","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARCO HAS \r\nMADE LANDFALL AND THE CENTER IS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO.  THE MOTION HAS BEEN AROUND 270/6 OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  SINCE THE MOUNTAINS OVER\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO ARE QUITE HIGH...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  A 24\r\nHOUR FORECAST POSITION IS SHOWN BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A\r\nWELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL LAST THAT LONG.  IN\r\nFACT...MARCO COULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR VERY EARLY WEDNESDAY. \r\nSTILL...THE REMNANTS OF MARCO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 19.9N  96.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 20.3N  97.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.3N  98.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marco","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n \r\nMARCO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED RAPIDLY SINCE THE CENTER\r\nMOVED INLAND OVER MEXICO THIS MORNING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 30 KT AND MARCO IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER TRACKS GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO...AND MARCO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  STILL...THE\r\nREMNANTS OF MARCO ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 19.9N  97.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 19.9N  97.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marco","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n\r\nSATELITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE TINY CIRCULATION\r\nOF MARCO HAS DISINTEGRATED OVER MEXICO. THUS...THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY. THE ONLY REMAINING THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER\r\nEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 20.0N  97.5W    20 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND AN 1110 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE COAST OF\r\nEASTERN HONDURAS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT...BASED ON\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE PREDICTS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST VERY SOON TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nSOME OF THE TRACK MODELS PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WHICH\r\nBRINGS THE CENTER INLAND OVER EASTERN HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTION...WHICH KEEP THE\r\nCENTER OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN\r\nCOAST OF HONDURAS AND THEN MAKES LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  HOWEVER...IT\r\nIS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD MAKE LANDFALL IN\r\nHONDURAS...THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS AS ISSUED A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THEIR COUNTRY.\r\n\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS ON\r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.  IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER\r\nTHE WARM WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO INTENSIFICATION WOULD\r\nAPPEAR LIKELY.  OF COURSE...IF THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OF OVER LAND\r\nTHE CHANGES FOR STRENGTHENING WOULD BE MUCH LESS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH KEEPS THE CENTER OVER WATER...CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 15.6N  83.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  83.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  85.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N  87.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 16.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 16.3N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n \r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS THINNED DURING\r\nTHE DAY TODAY.  HOWEVER...A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE\r\nRECENTLY DEVELOPED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nHAS VERY RECENTLY FIXED A CENTER ABOUT 45 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nAPPARENT CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH SUGGEST\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LESS WELL ORGANIZED THAN IT APPEARS.  FOR THE\r\nTIME BEING...WE WILL GO WITH THE CENTER OF THE BROAD CYCLONIC\r\nENVELOPE DETERMINED FROM THE SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT IT IS\r\nCERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN WE ARE\r\nMORE CERTAIN OF THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.  REGARDLESS...\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN VERY LIGHT...AND NO MORE THAN AROUND\r\n25-30 KT IN AND NEAR SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 25 KT.\r\n \r\nWITH SOME UNCERTAINTY...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON MOVING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. ABOUT HALF OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES THE CENTER\r\nINLAND OVER HONDURAS...WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS\r\nTHE CENTER ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NORTHERN COAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS TO THE LATTER OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND KEEPS THE\r\nCENTER JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST DILEMMA REMAINS THE SAME AS THIS MORNING.  A\r\nTRACK OFFSHORE WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT...FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WHILE A TRACK\r\nSOUTH OF MY FORECAST WOULD BRING THE SYSTEM INLAND MUCH EARLIER.\r\nSINCE THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SHOWS A\r\nLITTLE LESS TIME OVER WATER...THE PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE LOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 15.7N  83.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.9N  84.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.1N  85.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.1N  86.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  88.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM\r\nSTILL LACKS APPRECIABLE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN LINE WITH\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE EARLIER\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA. WITH THE SHEAR EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUFFICIENTLY WARM...THERE IS SOME\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING AS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER\r\nWATER...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...RAPID DEVELOPMENT\r\nIS NOT LIKELY.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER\r\nOF THE CYCLONE OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 2 DAYS...BUT ONLY A SMALL\r\nDEVIATION TO THE SOUTH WOULD BRING THE CENTER OVER LAND\r\nSOONER...POTENTIALLY WEAKENING THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nWITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS MOTION AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 16.2N  83.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.3N  84.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.3N  85.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.2N  87.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N  88.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/SCHAUER CLARK\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008\r\n500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION BASICALLY CONSISTS OF TWO CURVED BANDS OF CONVECTION\r\nTHAT ARE RATHER DISTANT FROM THE APPARENT CENTER.  IT IS DIFFICULT\r\nTO TELL EXACTLY WHERE THE CENTER IS...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE HONDURAS COAST.  THE SYSTEM HAS EFFECTIVELY AVOIDED\r\nBOTH QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT OVERNIGHT...AND SINCE THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS HAVEN'T CHANGED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n25 KT.  AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM DOESN'T MOVE OVER LAND...ATMOSPHERIC\r\nAND OCEANIC PARAMETERS WOULD CERTAINLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nBECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPEND LESS TIME OVER WATER. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TAKE A TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT MAY NEVER BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT ALL.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  A LARGE RIDGE\r\nBUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A BIG SURPRISE FOR THE\r\nENSUING NHC FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AGAIN AS THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nGENERALLY BEEN TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 16.0N  84.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  85.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  86.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 15.9N  87.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 15.7N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n \r\nCONVECTION AROUND THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY MORE\r\nORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND ITS CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS BUOY/HONDURAS STATION\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A WEAK TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE ON THE COAST OF\r\nNORTHEASTERN HONDURAS.  MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 265\r\nDEGREES AT 4 KT.  A SLOW MOTION WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDRIVE THE CYCLONE INTO HONDURAS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS\r\nTHROUGH THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER THAN...THE MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASED INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE RATHER UNCERTAIN YESTERDAY...MAY BE\r\nISSUED WITH SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENCE TODAY. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nLOOKS TO BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION...I.E. LOW VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...AND A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND LIKELY WILL NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION.\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED HWRF AND GFDL MODELS' TRACKS REMAINING OFFSHORE\r\nLONGER THAN UTILIZED HERE ALLOW THOSE MODELS TO INDICATE\r\nINTENSIFICATION UP TO A 40-45 KT TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE DECAY\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS REMAIN JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD\r\nFOR A TROPICAL STORM. WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION STILL IS\r\nCALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS...A\r\nPLAUSIBLE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL IF\r\nTHE CENTER AND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION STAYS OVER LAND.\r\nHOWEVER...HEAVY RAINBANDS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF HONDURAS AND\r\nPRODUCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE\r\nMODELS CALL FOR DISSIPATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nWITHIN FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 15.8N  84.5W    25 KT...ON THE COAST\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.8N  85.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.8N  86.3W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 15.6N  87.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 15.4N  88.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  90.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008\r\n500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE DEEP CONVECTION BECOMING NEARLY NON-EXISTANT NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT HAVE\r\nBEEN REPORTED IN MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON IN\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42056...A SHIP REPORT...AND QUIKSCAT/ASCAT\r\nPASSES.  AT LEAST A PORTION OF THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO THE EFFECTS\r\nOF A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE MODERATE SURFACE HIGH\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST US.  THE SHIP H3VR DID REPORT 33 KT...BUT IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THIS OBSERVATION MAY BE A FEW KT HIGH AFTER EXAMINING\r\nTHE SHIP'S HISTORY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 30\r\nKT...EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOW INLAND OVER NE HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH HONDURAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nALLOW FOR A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE CYCLONE'S POSITION AND\r\nMOTION - 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF SOME SPURIOUS TRACK OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF...CONTINUES\r\nTHE CYCLONE OFF TOWARD THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO LOW\r\nLEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS BASED UPON THIS SELECTED CONSENSUS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF AND\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THAT THE FORECAST TRACK...AT THIS TIME...APPEARS TO KEEP THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND MUCH OF ITS CIRCULATION OVER LAND...NO\r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGE STATISTICAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...INTERACTION\r\nOF THE CYCLONE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH TO ITS NORTH MAY CONTINUE TO\r\nPRODUCE STRONGER WINDS THAT WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED FOR AN\r\nINLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN A DAY OR TWO AND THEN COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN THREE DAYS.  ONE\r\nPOSSIBILITY IS THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF THIS CYCLONE MAY\r\nREDEVELOP IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN IN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN RISKS FROM THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE THE HEAVY RAINS AND\r\nPOSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS THAT MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 15.5N  85.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 15.4N  86.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 15.3N  87.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 15.3N  88.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 15.7N  89.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME ILL-DEFINED\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.  THE DEPRESSION HAS THUS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF\r\nHEAVY RAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND\r\nMUDSLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 15.3N  85.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 15.1N  86.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 15.0N  88.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 15.1N  89.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-11-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008\r\n\r\nCORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER 3 TO NUMBER 2\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO\r\nBE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nFOUND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 26 KT AT 1000 FT WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n1004 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT IS STARTING TO TAKE ON A BANDED\r\nAPPEARANCE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE\r\nWITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND NOAA BUOY 42057.\r\n \r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN FACT...THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF TURN THE DEPRESSION INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE CROSSING\r\nCUBA.  IN CONTRAST...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE UNDERDONE GIVEN A LARGE\r\nUPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORMING NEAR\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS THOSE MODELS FOR THE\r\nTIME BEING.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AND THIS COULD RESULT IN AN\r\nABRUPT WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nA TWELVE-HOUR MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 305/4.  A SLOW\r\nNORTHWEST TO NORTH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nAS THE DEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  A DEEP\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND ACCELERATE.  THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DISCREPANCIES IN\r\nTHE MODELS WITH THE GFDL/HWRF CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODELS.  LATE-SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE OFTEN\r\nNOTORIOUSLY SLOW-MOVING...E.G. MITCH OR WILMA...AND THE MODELS CAN\r\nBE TOO QUICK TO EJECT THESE SYSTEMS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.  WE'RE\r\nGOING TO LEAN TOWARD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A BIT BEHIND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 14.0N  81.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 14.3N  82.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 14.8N  82.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.5N  82.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N  83.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N  82.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N  80.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N  75.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-11-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0000 UTC\r\nSUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  ANALYSIS OF\r\nAMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2334 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nHIGHEST WINDS OUTSIDE OF RAIN NEAR THE CENTER WERE AROUND 25\r\nKT...REASONABLY SUGGESTING THAT WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT IN THE\r\nCONVECTION.  ALSO...NOAA BUOY 42057 WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nREPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 29 KT AT 2200 AND 2300 UTC...AND A GUST OF\r\n33 KT.  BASED ON ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT AND MAY FIND THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nEXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO ITS EAST.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...AND WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS...BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  AFTER\r\n36 HOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. \r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE \r\nVERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF BOTH MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...AND FORECAST AN INTENSITY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY 72\r\nHOURS.  THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BE NEAR HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY AT 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS MUCH STRENGTHENING\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED UPWARD...AND\r\nIS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE IS ABLE TO ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...MORE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR THAN IS FORECAST HERE.  BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AS THE CYCLONE\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES...AND WEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THOSE\r\nTIME PERIODS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 14.3N  82.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 14.8N  82.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.6N  82.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.4N  83.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 17.3N  83.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N  82.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N  79.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 23.5N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paloma","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-11-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n46 KT ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND REPORTED THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 1000 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY IS\r\nSHOWING INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C\r\nOCCURRING JUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH\r\n35-KT WINDS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE\r\nWINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.\r\n\r\nUP TO 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...GOOD\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEARS\r\nFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nINDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF\r\n30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE HWRF FORECASTS A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nFORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL.  AFTER 72 HR...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nSHEAR APART VERTICALLY.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/6.  PALOMA IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO ENCOUNTER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW AS IT REACHES 18N IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THIS FLOW SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS.  FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMD\r\nFORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST\r\nACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL\r\nSHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nWITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS\r\nSHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN\r\nISLANDS.  THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...\r\nSHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS.  SINCE THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO. \r\nHOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER\r\nTHAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.\r\n \r\nIF THE CURRENT MOTION AND STRUCTURE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM-FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO STAY OFF THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA\r\nAND HONDURAS.  HOWEVER...THOSE WINDS COULD SPREAD ONSHORE IF THE\r\nSTORM MAKES A LEFT TURN OR GROWS IN SIZE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 15.1N  82.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.8N  82.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.6N  82.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.5N  83.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N  82.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N  81.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N  78.0W    65 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  73.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paloma","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-11-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN ORGANIZING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST FEATURE DEVELOPING NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER. BANDING\r\nFEATURES ARE ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE AREA AROUND 1800Z TO PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nWARM CARIBBEAN WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND PERHAPS A DEVELOPING INNER\r\nCORE STRUCTURE SHOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A RAPID STRENGTHENING OF PALOMA IS ALSO\r\nPOSSIBLE WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND  THE SHIPS INDEX SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS 3-4 TIMES THE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.  HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE STRONG IN 60-120 HOUR TIME PERIODS DUE TO\r\nAN APPROACHING TROUGH AND THIS SHEAR SHOULD THEN CAUSE WEAKENING.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE.  THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT PALOMA WOULD GET STRONGER THAN SHOWN BELOW IN BETWEEN OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TIMES AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF STILL\r\nFORECAST THE STORM TO BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH TOMORROW... IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MAKES IT WAY AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF RIDGING\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST EARLY\r\nON. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS\r\nPALOMA ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVELS BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A POWERFUL TROUGH MOVING INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS A VERTICALLY-\r\nCOHERENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...PALOMA SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS\r\nCUBA THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IN A SPEEDY FASHION...SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD MODELS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWILL RIP PALOMA APART...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND IN\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS SHOOT OFF TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. WE'RE GOING TO CONTINUE THE FORECAST REASONING THAT\r\nPALOMA WILL REMAIN A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO. HOWEVER... THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED\r\nAFTER 72 HR WILL BE STILL BE SLOWER THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE\r\nINDICATING.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 15.6N  82.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 16.3N  82.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.3N  82.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N  82.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.3N  82.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N  80.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N  76.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 25.0N  73.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paloma","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-11-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nAN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN ALOFT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nHAS BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE STORM AND HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB\r\nWINDS OF 61 KT...SFMR-DERIVED SURFACE WINDS OF 57 KT...AND A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 994 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO\r\n55 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA.  THE SYSTEM HAS A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS.  RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...ESPECIALLY IF PALOMA DEVELOPS AN EYE.  OVER THE WEEKEND...A\r\nCOMBINATION OF HIGH SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTIONS COULD CAUSE A RAPID\r\nWEAKENING OF THE STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL MODEL STILL\r\nFORECASTS THE STORM TO BE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA...WHICH REMAINS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA REQUIRED A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 005/7.  DISTANT\r\nHIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF PALOMA SHOULD STEER THE STORM\r\nNORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE RELOCATION AND LIES ON THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THERE CONTINUE TO BE A\r\nLARGE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nONE CLUSTER OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDL/BAMD...\r\nTAKES THE STORM QUICKLY ACROSS CUBA AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM INTACT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ANOTHER RELIABLE SET OF MODELS...INCLUDING\r\nTHE NOGAPS/UKMET/GFDN/ECMWF...ARE MUCH SLOWER AND EITHER LOOP THE\r\nSYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN OR TEAR IT APART BEFORE REACHING CUBA. \r\nSINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING AT A FASTER PACE THAN ANTICIPATED\r\nAND IS STRONGER...THE NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE MORE SPEEDY\r\nSOLUTION.  \r\n\r\nNOAA DATA BUOY 42057 SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE RADIUM OF MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nIN A FEW HOURS.   \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 16.3N  81.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N  81.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.3N  82.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N  81.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.0N  80.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 21.5N  78.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 23.5N  75.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 26.5N  72.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-11-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS REPORTS FROM\r\nNEARBY NOAA BUOY 42057...INDICATE THAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO\r\nA HURRICANE. AT 2250Z...THE NOAA BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED\r\nWIND OF 62 KT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 74 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n993 MB. ALLOWING FOR A 1 MB PER 10 KT PRESSURE REDUCTION YIELDS AN\r\nESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WHICH IS A TYPICAL CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE FOR A LOW-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LOCATED IN THE DEEP\r\nTROPICS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB...PLUS AN EYE FEATURE NOTED IN EARLIER INFRARED IMAGERY AND \r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA FURTHER SUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A HURRICANE.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH A\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD CHANNEL NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. THE EARLIER INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF 10 KT WAS PROBABLY MORE DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE INNER-CORE THAN ACTUAL STORM PROPAGATION. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SHARPLY WITH THE\r\nUKMET...GFDN...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS TAKING A VERY SHEARED AND\r\nVERY WEAK SYSTEM WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS MOVE A STRONGER AND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE ACROSS\r\nEAST-CENTRAL CUBA THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AFTER THAT. GIVEN THE CURRENT IMPRESSIVE\r\nORGANIZATION AND EXPECTED CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY...AS WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE GFS-GFDL-HWRF SOLUTION IN TAKING A STRONGER AND MORE\r\nVERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE INTACT ACROSS CUBA THROUGH 60-72 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nPALOMA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED BY 35 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS RARE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR MORE THAN\r\n48 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT PREMISE\r\nAND CALLS FOR THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND TO END IN 24\r\nHOURS. THIS RAPID STRENGTHENING SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN...AN EYE FEATURE...A RELATIVELY SMALL\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND A SLOW FORWARD MOTION OVER 29C SSTS.\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL ALSO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS PALOMA TO 102 KT IN 36\r\nHOURS...WHICH SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL SHARPLY INCREASE\r\nFROM 5 KT TO 25 KT...SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR\r\nDURING DAYS 2-5. AS PALOMA PASSES OVER CUBA IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...\r\nLAND INTERACTION WILL ALSO LEAD TO A WEAKENING CYCLONE...AND IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT PALOMA WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST AT\r\n72 HOURS AND BEYOND AFTER IT EMERGES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 17.2N  81.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.1N  81.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N  81.5W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N  80.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 20.7N  79.8W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N  77.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 24.5N  74.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 27.5N  71.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-11-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE PALOMA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED\r\nTO AT LEAST 981 MB...AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE SFMR AND DROPSONDE\r\nESTIMATES OF 65-70 KT SURFACE WINDS AROUND THE 16 N MI WIDE EYE. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE CONSERVATIVE.  WHILE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT\r\n10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/8.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST GUIDANCE.  PALOMA IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD BY A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND STRONG\r\nWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR THE HURRICANE TO SHEAR APART\r\nAT VARIOUS TIMES BETWEEN 24-96 HR...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WINDING UP ANYWHERE FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP PALOMA TO MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  SINCE\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE...THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nPALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED FROM 35 KT TO 70 KT IN THE LAST 24 HR...AND\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HR.  THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR PALOMA TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  AFTER 24-36 HR...THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nWEAKEN.  THIS WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE AIDED BY PASSAGE ACROSS\r\nCUBA BETWEEN 48-72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY\r\n120 HR.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL RUNS CAST SOME DOUBT ON WHETHER\r\nTHIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR.  HOWEVER...EVEN IF PALOMA DOES NOT\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IT SHOULD STILL WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 17.8N  81.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.6N  81.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  81.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 20.4N  80.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 21.1N  79.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  73.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  70.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-11-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008\r\n \r\nPALOMA IS CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING WITH HINTS OF AN EYE\r\nON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 75 KT AND IS IN LINE WITH MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nNOW SHOW THE HURRICANE COMING UP A BIT SHY OF MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS. UNTIL WE SEE SOME SIGNS THAT PALOMA IS NOT CONTINUING TO\r\nINTENSIFY...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. BY SUNDAY...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO SUCH\r\nA HIGH DEGREE THAT PALOMA MAY WEAKEN EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.\r\nON TUESDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT SINCE THE BAROCLINIC\r\nINFLUENCES SEEM LIMITED...REMNANT LOW SEEMS LIKE THE MORE ACCURATE\r\nTERM. THE CANADIAN TERM POST-TROPICAL MAY ALSO FIT THIS SITUATION. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT PALOMA HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT THIS\r\nMORNING AND IS NOW MOVING 005/6.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO\r\nTHE EARLY PART OF THE NHC FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON A NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  THERE ARE\r\nSTILL SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAST PALOMA LEAVES THE\r\nCARIBBEAN...WHICH IS PROBABLY TIED TO HOW QUICKLY THE STORM FALLS\r\nAPART.  A POSSIBLE SOLUTION IS THAT THE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION\r\nAND HIGH SHEAR CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO LOSE VERTICAL COHERENCE \r\nAFTER A CUBAN LANDFALL...CAUSING PALOMA TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. \r\nTHERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILTY IN THE MOST RECENT\r\nGFS AND HWRF MODEL RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS FAST THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 18.3N  81.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N  81.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N  80.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 20.8N  79.4W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 21.6N  78.3W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 23.0N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 24.5N  74.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N  72.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-11-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008\r\n \r\nAS IT HAS DONE SINCE THE FIRST ADVISORY...PALOMA CONTINUES TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN...AND NOW APPEARS TO BE DOING SO AT A QUICKER PACE.\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT AN EYE IS BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL. AIR FORCE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANES HAVE BEEN FLYING THROUGH THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nHAVE FOUND PEAK 10000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 106 KT...SFMR WINDS\r\nOF 88 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 967 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS RAISED TO 90 KT...AND HIGHER WINDS WILL SURELY BE FOUND IN SHORT\r\nORDER. BARRING AN EYEWALL CYCLE...PALOMA WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY\r\nUNTIL THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TOMORROW. THEREAFTER...\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE SHEAR IS FORECAST UP\r\nUNTIL A LANDFALL IN CUBA. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY\r\nOCCUR AFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL IN CUBA. EXTREMELY HIGH\r\nSHEAR OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM\r\nQUICKLY...PERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/5...A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST APPEARS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN\r\nAND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  TRACK MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH\r\nTHE CAYMAN ISLANDS TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE A\r\nLARGE DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO PALOMA IN THE\r\nLONGER-TERM.  HOWEVER...I'M STARTING TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE\r\nSOLUTION THAT SUGGESTS THE HURRICANE WILL RAPIDLY SHEAR APART NORTH\r\nOF CUBA...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEING LEFT BEHIND AND MOVING\r\nSLOWLY NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  THE GFDL...GFS...AND HWRF...THE FASTER\r\nMODELS FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...HAVE NOW SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAND ACTUALLY SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  IN FACT ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM EITHER\r\nMOVING SLOWLY OR MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nWILL BE SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND COULD BE\r\nADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER WEST IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.\r\nHOWEVER...AS NOTED ABOVE...THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF\r\nPALOMA IF IT MAKES THAT WESTWARD TURN DUE TO THE EXTREMELY HIGH\r\nSHEAR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 18.7N  81.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N  80.9W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 20.2N  79.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 21.1N  78.6W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.8N  77.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N  76.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 23.5N  75.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 23.5N  75.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-11-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008\r\n \r\nPALOMA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...HAVING STRENGTHENED 15\r\nKT IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND 70 KT IN THE PAST 48 HOURS. THE LAST AIR\r\nFORCE RECON PASS THROUGH THE EYE INDICATED A SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE OF\r\n964 MB...700 MB PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 107 KT...AND DROPSONDE\r\nMEASUREMENT EQUATING TO A 101 KT SURFACE WIND...AND A SFMR-MEASURED\r\nSURFACE WIND OF 101 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA. THESE DATA EASILY\r\nSUPPORT MAKING PALOMA A CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE. THE EYE HAS\r\nCLEARED OUT AND HAS BECOME WELL-DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS\r\nALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW UP IN CUBAN RADAR IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/06 KT. PALOMA HAS FINALLY MADE\r\nTHE LONG ADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nACROSS JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA. AS PALOMA COMES UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW CURRENTLY\r\nPUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK OUT TO THAT\r\nTIME AND BEYOND IS ANYTHING BUT STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS HAS BEEN THE\r\nCASE FOR THE PAST 36 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A BIFURCATION IN THE NHC\r\nMODEL SUITE WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS MODELS RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKENING PALOMA AND TURNING IT WESTWARD SOUTH OF CUBA BY 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS MOVE A SOMEWHAT\r\nSTRONGER CYCLONE ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BASED ON\r\nTHE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS AND REPORTS FROM RECON AIRCRAFT...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF\r\nSOLUTIONS...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT SLOWER. BY 72 HOURS...EVEN IF PALOMA\r\nREMAINS VERTICALLY INTACT...THE HURRICANE'S FORWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE LOCATED EAST OF\r\nTHE BAHAMAS. THIS WILL ALSO ACT TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nACROSS THE SYSTEM AND CAUSING THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nTO DECOUPLE...INDUCING RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO\r\nAFFECT PALOMA UNTIL AROUND 12 HOURS...SO THERE IS STILL A BRIEF\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE HURRICANE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE\r\nBEFORE IT REACHES LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC. HOWEVER...BY 24\r\nHOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nINCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING\r\nTREND. IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO NOT MAKE\r\nPALOMA A 105-KT HURRICANE UNTIL 24-36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH IT IS\r\nALREADY OCCURRING. HOWEVER...THOSE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED\r\nGIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO AFFECT PALOMA AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 19.1N  80.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 19.8N  80.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N  79.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 21.2N  78.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 21.7N  77.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 22.4N  76.2W    40 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  76.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  76.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-11-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT PALOMA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nFALLING TO 950 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 122 KT...AND TWO ESTIMATES OF 105 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 110 KT.  THIS INTENSITY IS LESS THAN THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KT FROM TAFB AND 127 KT FROM SAB...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS PALOMA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 050/06.  PALOMA IS BEING STEERED\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH THIS TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCONFIDENCE DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE U.S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nLIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH LOW-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH\r\nOF PALOMA.  WHILE THIS HAPPENS...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF PALOMA.  IF THIS FORECAST EVOLUTION IS\r\nCORRECT...BY 96-120 HR IT WOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN EASTERLY\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW...NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND NORTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE MOST LIKELY RESULT OF THIS WOULD BE FOR\r\nPALOMA TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nMOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS SOME SORT OF WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72\r\nHR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD AMONGST THE MODEL 120 HR POSITIONS\r\nTHAT RANGES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO SOUTHWEST OF THE CAYMAN\r\nISLANDS.  THE TWO EXCEPTIONS ARE THE GFS AND THE HWRF...WHICH\r\nFORECAST PALOMA TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT IT DOES NOT GET\r\nCAUGHT UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  SINCE THIS COULD HAPPEN IF\r\nPALOMA MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nWILL NOT FULLY FOLLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION FORECASTS.  INSTEAD...IT\r\nSHOWS ONLY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET SHOW THAT PALOMA\r\nHAS ONLY A FEW MORE HOURS TO STRENGTHEN.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTH-WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE JET DATA SHOW WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING\r\nON THE HURRICANE BETWEEN 250-500 MB.  THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO\r\nABOUT 40 KT IN ABOUT 24 HR AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE PALOMA TO STEADILY WEAKEN...\r\nWITH THE WEAKENING BEING ACCELERATED BY PASSAGE OVER CUBA IN 24-36\r\nHR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...CALLING FOR PALOMA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 48\r\nHR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.  IT IS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HR. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 19.5N  80.1W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.1N  79.4W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.8N  78.2W    95 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N  77.2W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.8N  76.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-11-08 10:30:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n530 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT PALOMA HAS STRENGTHENED TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITH A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 945 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 KT.  THIS\r\nSPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE WIND\r\nRADII...OR THE INTENSITY AT OTHER TIMES.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR PALOMA TO MAKE LANDFALL IN\r\nCUBA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THUS...THE STORM SURGE VALUES IN THE\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORY HAVE BEEN INCREASED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1030Z 19.6N  79.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.1N  79.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.8N  78.2W   100 KT...NEAR COAST OF CUBA\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N  77.2W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.8N  76.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-11-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE SUGGESTED THE MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nHAS DROPPED TO LEAST 943 MB.  IN ADDITION...PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nFROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE WERE 134 KT WITH SFMR READINGS OF 127\r\nKT...THOUGH THE LATTER VALUE COULD BE A LITTLE INFLATED DUE TO\r\nSHOALING AROUND LITTLE CAYMAN/CAYMAN BRAC.  SINCE THE PLANE\r\nDEPARTED...CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A BIT...SO PERHAPS\r\nPALOMA'S INTENSITY HAS PEAKED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 120\r\nKT...AND THE HURRICANE COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO. TWO MORE PLANES WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS. \r\n\r\nRADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST\r\nTHAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH SHEAR\r\nTHAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY...SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY. HOWEVER...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP\r\nTHROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE\r\nTO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND\r\nPALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO\r\nBE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED\r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM...REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC\r\nFORECAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT\r\nPALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE\r\nFORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN'T TOO\r\nFAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA\r\nWILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nEXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OVER 20 FEET ARE POSSIBLE\r\nALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA IN THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO DUE TO THE\r\nTRACK AND INTENSITY OF PALOMA.  \r\n\r\nPALOMA IS TIED FOR THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER\r\nNOTED IN NOVEMBER...THE STRONGEST BEING LENNY IN 1999. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 19.9N  79.3W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 20.4N  78.2W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 21.0N  77.0W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  76.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 22.0N  76.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 22.5N  75.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  76.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-11-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PALOMA IS DETERIORATING...\r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA PLANES HAVE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 142 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 124 KT...AND A RISING MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF ABOUT 952 MB.  125 KT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...\r\nBUT SINCE THE PRESSURE IS NOW COMING UP...THE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nCOME DOWN SOON.  ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN STRENGTH...HOWEVER...IS\r\nLIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE HURRICANE IS NOT VERY FAR OFF THE\r\nCOAST.  A RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO THE\r\nEFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND MANY HOURS OVER LAND.   THIS\r\nWEAKENING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE EVEN AFTER PALOMA LEAVES CUBA DUE TO\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY\r\nFORECASTING FOR MANY DAYS.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2\r\nDAYS...WITH ONLY A WEAK REMNANT LOW LEFT BEHIND.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT HIGHER THAN...THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A\r\nLONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE GIVES ABOUT 055/9.  THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nSHOULD OCCUR THROUGH LANDFALL DUE TO NO FORESEEABLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS.  THE MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT\r\nPALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AFTER LANDFALL AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE\r\nLEFT BEHIND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  PALOMA MAY START\r\nTO DRIFT WESTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...BUT STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nEXCEPTIONALLY HIGH STORM SURGE VALUES OF 20 TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE\r\nALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA DUE TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF\r\nPALOMA.\r\n \r\nPALOMA IS NOW THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN\r\nNOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 20.5N  78.5W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N  77.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N  76.9W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 21.8N  76.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 22.3N  76.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.5N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-11-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LAST AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON REPORT AT 2305Z INDICATED A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 968 MB...WITH AN EARLIER MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND OF 118 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. SINCE THAT TIME...PALOMA\r\nHAS MOVED INLAND AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH...AND LAND INTERACTION\r\nWITH CUBA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS\r\nNOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA\r\nARE STILL INDICATING STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING OF 50 DBZ AND HIGHER\r\nVALUES COMPRISING THE NORTHERN EYEWALL. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION\r\nAND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONG WINDS STILL EXIST OVER THE OPEN\r\nWATERS OF THE GULF OF GUACANAYABO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY\r\nDECREASED TO 100 KT...MAINTAINING PALOMA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS PALOMA MOVES\r\nACROSS CUBA. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE FORWARD MOTION OF PALOMA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE INHIBITED BY A BUILDING LOW- MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PALOMA WEAKENS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE\r\nCENTRAL BAHAMAS DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD DECOUPLE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKENED PALOMA MOVING BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THE KEY...OF\r\nCOURSE...IS HOW STRONG WILL THAT CIRCULATION BE AT DAYS 3-5.\r\nALTHOUGH THE 200 MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY AND IN EXCESS\r\nOF 40 KT...THE 300 MB WIND FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 15-20 KT\r\nAND BECOME SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE\r\nCONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A\r\nTROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nPALOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAND LAND INTERACTION WITH CUBA FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. AFTER\r\nEMERGING OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD BE THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED\r\nPREVIOUSLY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW BELOW 30,000 FT TO DECREASE TO 15-20 KT...WHICH\r\nCOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO PERSIST NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND MAINTAIN PALOMA AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MODELS FORECASTING\r\nUNUSUALLY COLD 200 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -55C...WHICH WOULD ACT\r\nTO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY AND SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 20.9N  77.7W   100 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 21.4N  77.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.8N  76.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 22.3N  75.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.6N  75.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paloma","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-11-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGERY FROM CUBA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS A\r\nLITTLE BEHIND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH\r\nHAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nRADAR PRESENTATION IS DEGRADING RAPIDLY. WITH NO DIRECT INFORMATION\r\nAVAILABLE...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE DECAY\r\nSHIPS MODEL...BUT I SUSPECT THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE HIGH SIDE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...IS\r\n050/4. WITH THE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED...IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nDECOUPLING OF PALOMA IS UNDERWAY. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW WILL TURN TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHILE A LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A VERY HIGH SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR PALOMA THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING\r\nTREND...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES OVER WATER. IF THE PRESENT\r\nCONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...PALOMA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 24-36 HOURS. OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY THE NOGAPS\r\nMAINTAINS A CLOSED CIRCULATION OUT TO 96 HOURS. A NUMBER OF THE\r\nBETTER-PERFORMING TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW PALOMA...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...BEING PUSHED BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER CUBA AGAIN\r\nBENEATH THE BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IF THIS HAPPENS THE\r\nSYSTEM WOULD DEGENERATE EVEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE OF THE STRONG SHEAR.  THE\r\nLONGER PALOMA HOLDS TOGETHER THE FARTHER NORTHEAST IT WILL GET.\r\nTHERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BY 48 HOURS THE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION WILL STOP.  AS THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUIDS OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN STATES...THE HWRF...GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF TURN THE\r\nREMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARD BACK ACROSS CUBA...WHILE THE\r\nGFS AND THE NOGAPS TURN THEM MORE WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nLATTER OF THESE SCENARIOS...ALTHOUGH IN EITHER CASE THERE SHOULD BE\r\nLITTLE LEFT TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 21.3N  77.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 21.6N  77.1W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.2N  76.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N  76.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 23.0N  76.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paloma","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-11-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008\r\n\r\nPALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE CENTERED OVER LAND AND BEING\r\nIMPACTED BY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS\r\nINLAND AND HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS DIFFICULT\r\nTO USE THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE TO ESTIMATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  A\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND\r\nVECTORS JUST OFF THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.  CAMAGUEY...WHICH\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE CENTER...IS NOT REPORTING VERY STRONG WINDS. \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nAND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE SOMEWHERE OVER THE\r\nWATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  OUR BEST GUESS AT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS IS 50 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS WIND\r\nFORECAST...INDICATES RELENTLESSLY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE\r\nORDER OF 45 TO 50 KT ON THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS PALOMA WEAKENING TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nPALOMA ADVANCED MORE SLOWLY OVER CUBA THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED AND\r\nTHIS HAS NECESSITATED A BIT OF A SOUTHWARD RELOCATION. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT OR 020/2. \r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE IS BEING REDUCED TO A SHALLOW LAYER SYSTEM...IT\r\nIS BECOMING LESS LIKELY THAT IT WILL RESPOND TO STEERING BY THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER EVEN THE SHALLOW BAM SHOWS A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL\r\nLOOPING IT BACK TO THE WEST IN AROUND 3 DAYS...BY WHICH TIME THERE\r\nWILL LIKELY BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE SYSTEM.  SINCE WE BELIEVE\r\nTHAT MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM TOO FAR TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST....THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO MOTION BETWEEN DAYS TWO\r\nAND THREE AND IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nIF THE CURRENT LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS...PALOMA COULD\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN PREDICTED HERE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 21.2N  77.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.7N  77.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  77.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  76.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N  77.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paloma","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-11-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n400 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PALOMA SINCE ABOUT 10Z THIS\r\nMORNING...THOUGH THE HOLGUIN RADAR IN CUBA DOES SHOW SOME MODEST BUT\r\nDECREASING RAINFALL IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS SOMEWHAT OF AN EDUCATED GUESS FOR THIS OVERLAND\r\nCYCLONE...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK\r\nANALYSES.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE FACT THAT PALOMA HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND OVER LAND ALL DAY IT SEEMS CERTAIN THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS SPUN DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE EARLY TODAY.\r\nAVAILABLE CUBAN SURFACE OBSERVING STATIONS AND CONTINUITY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT PALOMA HAS WEAKENED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nPALOMA HAS NEARLY COME TO A HALT THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF ABOUT 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS THUS\r\nCLOSEST TO BAM SHALLOW...AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STAYING OVER LAND FOR\r\nALMOST A DAY...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LIKELY LEADING TO\r\nPALOMA'S IMMINENT DEMISE.  UNLESS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCYCLONE'S CENTER IS RE-INITIATED SOON...PALOMA MAY BE DECLARED A\r\nREMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 21.2N  78.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.6N  78.1W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.2N  78.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 22.7N  78.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 23.0N  78.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paloma","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-11-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172008\r\n1000 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008\r\n \r\nPALOMA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN\r\n12 HOURS DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER CUBA AND\r\nVERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING DEEP CONVECTION\r\n...ALONG WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...WELL TO THE\r\nEAST NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY\r\nCONVECTION...DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAN NOT BE\r\nGENERATED BY TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASED TO 25 KT FOR DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION PALOMA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/03 KT. THE REMNANTS OF PALOMA ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...\r\nAND THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS\r\nCUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...MEANDERING OVER LAND\r\nFOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM HAS LED TO THE\r\nRAPID DEMISE OF PALOMA. SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS\r\nFAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED...THERE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IF THE SYSTEM\r\nREMAINS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IN\r\nEXCESS OF 30 KT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD PREVENT ANY\r\nCONVECTION THAT MIGHT DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AROUND THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 22.0N  78.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N  78.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 22.7N  78.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.0N  78.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA HAS BEEN\r\nGRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION TODAY. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTED A REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND THE\r\n00Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T2.0...\r\nSUGGESTING ENOUGH CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER THIN...CONFINED\r\nMOSTLY TO A FEW BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH ONE\r\nSMALL BAND HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR\r\nTWO. GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT... SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO GAUGE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/3.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE IN THE LOW\r\nTO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK INITIALLY...WITH A BEND TO\r\nTHE LEFT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITHIN THE GYRE AND TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE GULF RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE 12Z UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TAKING THE SYSTEM\r\nINLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF\r\nTHE COASTLINE RELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK\r\nERRORS COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nWIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LOW BUT THE BEST UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSUPPORT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nIS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CORE CONVECTION BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.\r\nWATERS BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE WARM...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO STORM STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS.  NEITHER THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...OR LGEM MODELS SHOW MUCH DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE\r\nPRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD\r\nREACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...\r\nESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 10.2N  86.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 10.8N  86.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 12.0N  86.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 13.7N  87.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER AND A VIGOROUS BAND WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. \r\nASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT NEAR 03Z...AND THE\r\nPOSSIBLE FORMATION OF AN INNER WIND CORE.  BASED MAINLY ON THE\r\nASCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS\r\nSLIGHTLY BELOW THE 35 KT ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH...350/4.  THE SYSTEM REMAINS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC\r\nGYRE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS GENERAL PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 36-48 HR.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY FORECAST AN INITIAL NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION THAT BECOMES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND MORE\r\nWESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...AND IT IS A BIT FASTER THEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN NICARAGUA\r\nIN 18-24 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS MODEL.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT BECAUSE OF THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE\r\nRELATIVE TO THE FORECAST TRACK...EVEN MODEST TRACK ERRORS COULD\r\nRESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH THE\r\nONLY OBVIOUS NEGATIVE FACTOR BEING LAND INTERACTION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL...FOLLOWED\r\nBY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. \r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD GET STRONGER THAN FORECAST IF\r\nIT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  HOWEVER...\r\nUNLESS THE SYSTEM GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN FORECAST...THE\r\nPRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY RAINS...WHICH COULD\r\nREACH 20 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...\r\nESPECIALLY IN COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 10.9N  86.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 11.8N  87.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 13.3N  87.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 14.9N  88.3W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA...THE FIRST EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NAMED\r\nCYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED PLENTY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...PRIMARILY ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OUTFLOW IS ALREADY WELL-ESTABLISHED. BASED\r\nON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n40 KNOTS.  ALMA IS WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO.\r\n\r\nALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS...STEERED\r\nBY A LIGHT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AS ALMA MOVES\r\nNORTHWARD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEEP LAYER MEAN\r\nLEVEL RIDGE WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL INDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nCOMPONENT. BY THEN...ALMA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND AND WEAKENING\r\nOVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS BOTH GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS. \r\n\r\nALMA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY OVER CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS WHICH COULD REACH 20 INCHES OVER\r\nTHE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAUSING DANGEROUS\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 11.5N  86.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.5N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-05-29 16:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n900 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...MICROWAVE...AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT ALMA IS\r\nSTRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING\r\nISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY OF ALMA AND\r\nTO ISSUE NEW HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE WEST COAST OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA. ALMA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE PRIOR TO\r\nMAKING LANDFALL.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1600Z 11.7N  86.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N  87.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.0N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.5N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE IS CROSSING THE\r\nNORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR THE CITY OF LEON.  THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT CONVECTIVE COIL SURROUNDING\r\nTHE EYE FEATURE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n55 KNOTS. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY MOVING INLAND AND A LARGE\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...TORRENTIAL\r\nRAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER A LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nALMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nBUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY TURNS THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 12.4N  87.0W    55 KT...CROSSING THE COAST\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.6N  87.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N  90.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alma","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n800 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ALMA HAS CONTINUED INLAND AND NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 350/8\r\nSINCE MAKING LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA ABOUT EIGHT\r\nHOURS AGO.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS STILL DISCERNIBLE IN THE\r\nLAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES LEADING UP TO SYNOPTIC TIME...AND WE HAVE\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY FOLLOWED THE CENTER INTO SOUTHERN HONDURAS BY TRACKING\r\nA SMALL ROTATING BALL OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON VERY LITTLE DATA BUT IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK OF ALMA AND ITS EVENTUAL REMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nBEND TO THE LEFT OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND GULF OF MEXICO.  FOLLOWING THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nAND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CALLS FOR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER TO PERHAPS CLIP THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEFORE MOVING OVER\r\nBELIZE AND GUATEMALA.  DESPITE THAT POSSIBLE SHORT TIME OVER\r\nWATER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF\r\nSPENDING THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND\r\nALMA SHOULD NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SOMETIME\r\nTOMORROW...ALTHOUGH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY LAST A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  DESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL\r\nDISSIPATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT\r\nRAINFALL AND FLOODING HAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR\r\nABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n\r\nALMA IS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM...IN THE AVAILABLE RECORDS...TO\r\nMAKE LANDFALL ON THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  IT ALSO\r\nMADE LANDFALL FARTHER EAST THAN ANY PREVIOUS EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS THE FIRST TO DO SO ON THE PACIFIC COAST\r\nOF NICARAGUA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 13.4N  87.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.9N  87.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.6N  88.7W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N  90.1W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alma","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT ALMA HAS\r\nBECOME DISORGANIZED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS.  THE CENTER\r\nPASSED NEAR TEGUCIGALPA A FEW HOURS AGO WITH ONLY LIGHT WINDS\r\nREPORTED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...WITH\r\nTHESE WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING ONLY IN BANDS OF SQUALLS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/10.  BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE\r\nENVELOPE...CALLING FOR ALMA TO BRIEFLY MOVE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nHONDURAS BEFORE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nSINCE ALMA IS FORECAST TO MOVE MOSTLY OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12\r\nHR AND DISSIPATE BY 48 HR.  THAT BEING SAID...ALMA IS UNDER A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  SO...IF THE CYCLONE SPENDS\r\nMORE TIME OVER WATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL\r\nFOR RE-DEVELOPMENT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS \r\nSHOW A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS IN THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHR.  THIS IS MOST LIKELY ALMA OR ITS REMNANTS...BUT IT ALSO COULD\r\nBE A SECOND LOW FORMING IN THE BROAD MONSOON FLOW OVER CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE FORECAST WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION...THIS\r\nSYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING\r\nHAZARD TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 14.6N  87.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.9N  88.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N  89.2W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.3N  90.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alma","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP012008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI MAY 30 2008\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA AND NO LONGER HAS A CIRCULATION CENTER. THE REMNANTS\r\nOF ALMA ARE STILL ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THERE REMAINS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AND FLOODING. THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...\r\nASSOCIATED LARGELY WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...PREVAILS OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL BE\r\nMONITORED FOR SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 15.4N  88.2W    20 KT..REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR A FEW DAYS HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A FAIRLY\r\nWELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND WITH AN ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SOME\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.  IN GENERAL...NUMERICAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST EITHER WEAKENING OR LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR A DAY\r\nOR SO. THEN...IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AS A STRONGER MIDDLE-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH. THIS IS BASICALLY THE SOLUTION\r\nOF TRACK GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 12.0N 108.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 12.4N 109.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.7N 111.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 13.0N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.5N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.5N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 13.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N 126.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008\r\n \r\nA CONVECTIVE BAND WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO -80C HAS DEVELOPED\r\nAROUND THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH\r\nSAB AND TAFB...AND RE-EXAMINATION OF EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA\r\nSUGGESTED 35 KT WINDS.  BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM BORIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35\r\nKT...AND THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY\r\nGOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL ANALYSES SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTH\r\nOF 15N BETWEEN 115-135W.  THE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD AND WEAKEN...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING\r\nWESTWARD FROM MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF BORIS.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD\r\nALLOW BORIS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS SHOWN BY THE GFS GFDL AND HWRF.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE NEW FORECAST BEING\r\nA LITTLE NORTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT IS\r\nDOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS AN ALTERNATE\r\nSCENARIO...WITH BORIS BECOMING STATIONARY OR MOVING EASTWARD AFTER\r\n96 HR DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE\r\nEAST.  WHILE ANOTHER CYCLONE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE ECMWF\r\nMAY BE MAKING THE SYSTEM TOO POWERFUL AND TOO LARGE.  THUS...ITS\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOR BORIS APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nBORIS IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THEY\r\nFORECAST A PIECE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO TO MOVE WESTWARD AND PASS NEAR BORIS...ACCOMPANIED BY\r\nA SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR.  THIS WOULD LIKELY STOP\r\nINTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR BORIS TO\r\nREACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE AFTER 72 HR...BUT BY THAT TIME BORIS IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AN\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO BASED ON CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS IS THAT\r\nBORIS COULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST\r\n36 HR AND REACH A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 12.6N 109.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 13.0N 110.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 13.3N 111.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 13.4N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 13.5N 115.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 13.5N 122.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008\r\n\r\nBORIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 13Z SHOWS THAT\r\nBORIS HAS A BROAD INNER CIRCULATION...WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 60-75 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.  \r\n\r\nBORIS HAS JOGGED TO THE RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/8.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BEING SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT\r\nOTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. \r\nBORIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHR WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN BEST\r\nOVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK\r\nOF BORIS COULD BE INFLUENCED BY INTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...THE NEWLY-DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E TO THE\r\nWEST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ANOTHER CYCLONE FORECAST BY\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS EAST OF BORIS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CURRENTLY DOES NOT TAKE THESE POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS\r\nINTO ACCOUNT.\r\n \r\nBORIS IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE\r\nSHEAR...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS NOW SHOWING AN EARLIER ONSET\r\nAND LONGER DURATION OF THE SHEAR THAN IN THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS.  THIS\r\nIS LIKELY TO HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ON BORIS THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nFORECAST.  BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR BORIS TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n60 KT BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.  AFTER 24-36 HR...BORIS SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND SLOWLY\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 13.3N 109.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 13.7N 110.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 112.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.2N 115.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 14.0N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 14.0N 124.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS' CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE VERY COLD...-80 DEG\r\nC...CLOUD TOPS AND THERE ARE SOME BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  THERE IS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL\r\nBUT THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER BORIS AS A RESULT OF AN INVERTED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS\r\nOUTPUT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD FORCE A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL\r\nTRACK.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 13.6N 110.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 111.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N 113.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.5N 114.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 125.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nALREADY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT\r\nCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER. IN\r\nFACT...IT ASSUMES THAT BORIS HAS ALREADY PEAKED. IN ADDITION...MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DECOUPLING THE CYCLONE BY KEEPING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL PORTION MEANDERING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CONTINUES\r\nWESTWARD. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nBUT A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nBORIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES\r\nAT 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAND CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID LEVELS...A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL GUIDANCE.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 14.0N 112.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 113.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BORIS IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF A\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  THIS IS DUE TO\r\nINCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 45 KT...AND\r\nTHAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS\r\nFAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11...SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE MODEL TRACK FORECASTS FOR BORIS SHOW SOME SPREAD DUE TO\r\nINTERACTION WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES BOTH REAL...TROPICAL STORM\r\nCRISTINA...AND POTENTIAL...THE LARGE BUT WEAK DISTURBANCE EAST OF\r\nBORIS.  AT THIS TIME...BORIS AND CRISTINA APPEAR TO BE TOO FAR\r\nAPART FOR SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION.  ALSO...THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE TOO WEAK TO CAUSE BORIS TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION UNDER\r\nTHE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE NEW TRACK IS A BIT FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SHEAR INCREASING...IT APPEARS THAT BORIS HAS REACHED PEAK\r\nINTENSITY.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO PERSIST\r\nFOR 36-72 HR BEFORE DECREASING...AND BY THAT TIME BORIS WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR 24\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS BOTH FORECAST BORIS TO BECOME A HURRICANE...WHICH LOOKS\r\nUNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 14.5N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.6N 114.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 14.8N 115.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.9N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 119.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 128.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OR MOTION OF BORIS\r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTLY\r\nEXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO 20 KT OF\r\nNORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10...\r\nLITTLE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nFOR THE TRACK FORECAST...THE LARGE SCALE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF\r\nBORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...SOME SPREAD REMAINS IN THE\r\nASSOCIATED TRACK FORECASTS DUE TO POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA...A POTENTIAL CYCLONE FORMING EAST OF\r\nBORIS...OR...IN THE CASE OF THE GFS...LIKELY SPURIOUS CYCLONES IN\r\nTHE MODEL ALONG THE ITCZ.  CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF\r\nBORIS ACTUALLY INTERACTING WITH CRISTINA OR THE EASTERN\r\nDISTURBANCE.  THEREFORE... THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A STEADY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF THE RIDGE.  THE NEW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST\r\nDECREASING SHEAR...WHILE THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nCONTINUE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW OVER BORIS.  EVEN IF\r\nTHE SHEAR DECREASES...BORIS SHOULD APPROACH COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HR.  BASED ON THIS...BORIS IS FORECAST\r\nTO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BECOME A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN ALL CALL FOR BORIS\r\nTO STRENGTHEN TO 60 KT OR GREATER...WHICH LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THE\r\nMOMENT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 14.8N 113.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 14.9N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N 116.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.1N 118.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 15.3N 120.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BORIS HAS REMAINED ESSENTIALLY\r\nSTEADY-STATE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\n \r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING\r\nWESTWARD NORTH OF BORIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SUCH A\r\nPATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD FORM\r\nEAST OF BORIS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING.  IN FACT...THE GFS\r\nMODEL SHOWS BORIS LOOPING BACK TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DUE TO\r\nTHIS SCENARIO.  SINCE THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\nTHE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.  \r\n\r\nBORIS IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH\r\nIS CAUSING THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG OR EVEN INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS LIMITING BORIS'S DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE IN A DAY OR SO BUT BY THIS POINT BORIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nCALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 14.9N 114.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 115.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.1N 117.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 15.2N 119.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 120.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 15.5N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 127.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-06-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF\r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTION YIELDING NO CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS UNCHANGED AT 45\r\nKT.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ADDITIONALLY...BORIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS. \r\nSUCH AN ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BORIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n3-4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN\r\nBEFORE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. \r\n \r\nBORIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE BUILDS WESTWARD.  SUCH A STRAIGHT FORWARD PATTERN WOULD\r\nNORMALLY RESULT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS. \r\nHOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A NEW CYCLONE COULD\r\nFORM EAST OF BORIS IN 2-3 DAYS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE STEERING.  IN\r\nFACT...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL SHOW BORIS OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nLOOPING BACK TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST BEYOND 72 HOURS. \r\nCONVERSELY...THE UKMET...HWRF...AND NOGAPS MODELS MAINTAIN A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER OF THESE\r\nTWO SCENARIOS AND MAINTAINS A WESTWARD...ALBEIT SLOW...MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 15.0N 115.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 15.1N 116.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 15.2N 118.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.3N 119.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.4N 121.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 15.5N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 15.5N 127.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-06-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS LOCATED\r\nON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR.  THE OUTFLOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS ASYMMETRIC. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SO\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT A LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nDISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO WILL BE THE\r\nPREVAILING FLOW.  IN FACT...THE GFS ABSORBS BORIS INTO THE NEW\r\nDISTURBANCE. THIS WOULD DISCOURAGE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY. IN ADDITION...SHIPS MODEL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS MAINLY\r\nDUE TO DRY STABLE AIR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE. ONLY THE GFDL AND\r\nHWFR MODELS STRENGTHEN BORIS IN THE NEAR TERM BUT THEN WEAKEN IT\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THEREFORE...THE BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN BORIS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW\r\nDISTURBANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION WITH\r\nA GRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY DAY 3...BORIS SHOULD BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nBEGINNING TO FORECAST AN EASTWARD TURN ASSUMING THAT BORIS WILL\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY THE NEW DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 15.0N 116.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 119.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.0N 120.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 122.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-06-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED IN THE CONVECTION BUT THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nCONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.  BORIS IS\r\nHEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR.\r\nTHEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AND THIS FORECAST\r\nBASICALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBORIS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS. SOME\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE CHANGING THEIR TUNE AND ARE NOW KEEPING BORIS\r\nSEPARATED FROM THE DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THESE MODELS KEEP BORIS MOVING WESTWARD.  NOW ONLY\r\nTHE GFS AND THE GFDL INSIST ON MERGING BORIS WITH THE NEW\r\nDISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL BORIS BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 14.9N 117.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 118.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-06-30 00:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n500 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nTHE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES OF BORIS.  OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...A\r\nRAGGED EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  IN\r\nADDITION...A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF BORIS IS REASONABLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE VISIBLE EYE\r\nFEATURE.  THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE TO\r\nBE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.  \r\n\r\nWHILE BORIS COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT...THE GENERAL\r\nSLOW WEAKENING SCENARIO FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES IS RETAINED.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0000Z 14.8N 117.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.7N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.6N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 14.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 14.5N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 14.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-06-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nTHE RAGGED EYE VISIBLE EARLIER HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY NEW CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH EXCELLENT BANDING ALOFT IS APPARENT IN\r\nAN AMSU PASS AT 0045 UTC.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A\r\nBLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...A\r\nCIMSS ADT OF 65 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 66 KT.  THE\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY IS NOT CONCLUSIVE BUT SUGGESTS A SMALL\r\nDISLOCATION OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER CENTERS...IN LINE WITH THE\r\nMODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  ALL OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL...INDICATE A\r\nLITTLE MORE STRENGTHING WHILE THE CYCLONE IS OVER 27C WATERS...AND\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD...HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9.  BORIS IS SOUTH OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD\r\nSTEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE GFDL AND GFS\r\nSOLUTIONS SHOW BORIS TURNING BACK EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nLARGE CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE CENTERED SOUTH OF ACAPULCO...WHILE THE\r\nECMWF AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SUPPORT A WESTWARD\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  I NOTE THAT THE GFS IS ALREADY TOO\r\nSLOW WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION...AND MAY BE OVERDOING THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN DISTURBANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND IN PARTICULAR TO THE UKMET.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 14.8N 118.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.8N 119.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 14.8N 120.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 14.7N 122.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 123.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 14.0N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 14.0N 128.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-06-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS' OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE\r\nAT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE UNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT.  \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR IDEAL FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...BORIS STILL HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  INTERESTINGLY...THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOW LITTLE OR NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING WHILE THE PURELY DYNAMICAL MODELS...HWRF AND\r\nGFDL...BOTH SHOW BORIS INTENSIFYING TO NEAR 80 KT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING\r\nLATER TODAY.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AS BORIS BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND A\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS. \r\n \r\nBORIS REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH IS\r\nKEEPING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING...275/11.  THIS\r\nOVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH\r\nSOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE POSSIBLE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY EAST OF\r\nBORIS.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS MODELS NO LONGER\r\nABRUPTLY TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARDS THE EAST.  RATHER...THEY\r\nESSENTIALLY SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING STATIONARY BEYOND 72 HOURS. \r\nTHIS RESULTS IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BEING A LITTLE NORTH AND A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED IN\r\nTHIS DIRECTION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 14.9N 119.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 120.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 122.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 14.9N 123.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 14.7N 125.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 14.5N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY. MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS ON\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5\r\nAND 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KNOTS.\r\nALTHOUGH BORIS IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO DECREASE SO A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM IS\r\nPOSSIBLE. BOTH HWRF AND GFDL INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT THE\r\nWEAKENING INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nBORIS IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. DUE TO THE\r\nFORECAST DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF\r\nBORIS...GLOBAL MODELS ARE WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENTS BUT\r\nMAINTAIN BORIS SOUTH OF A RIDGE. THEREFORE...A WEST TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 14.8N 120.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.7N 122.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 14.6N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 14.6N 124.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 14.5N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AND HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN EITHER. THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BEEN ASYMMETRIC AND UNIMPRESSIVE MOST OF THE\r\nDAY...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION DURING THE\r\nLAST HOUR OR SO. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. BORIS COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY IN THE\r\nNEAR TERM...12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.\r\n\r\nBORIS IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 TO 13 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A RIDGE NORTH OF BORIS STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nSTEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH SOME\r\nMODELS MOVE BORIS EASTWARD AS IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE DISCREPANCY\r\nAMONG TRACK MODELS IS LESS OBVIOUS.  THIS CAN BE TRANSLATED INTO A\r\nREDUCTION OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 14.7N 122.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.6N 123.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 14.5N 125.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 14.5N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 14.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 14.5N 130.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n \r\nAS IT DID AROUND THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...BORIS IS SHOWING EVIDENCE OF\r\nAN EYE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE 65 AND 55\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST UW/CIMSS ADT WAS 57 KT...WHILE A\r\nCIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE AT 21Z WAS 76 KT...INDICATING THAT BORIS HAS A\r\nSTRONG UPPER WARM CORE SIGNATURE.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS NOW\r\nSHOWING EXCELLENT BANDING...THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS NEAR 26C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF NOW\r\nMAINTAINS BORIS AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY\r\nPERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE AS RAPID A\r\nDECLINE AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/11.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nNOW THAN IT HAS BEEN...AS ONE BY ONE THE MODELS ARE GIVING UP ON A\r\nTURN BACK TO THE EAST.  IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR HOW STRONG THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE IN THREE OR FOUR DAYS...BUT AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM WEAKENS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASINGLY DOMINATE\r\nTHE STEERING.  CONSEQUENTLY...A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD PERSIST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM\r\nBAM...THE GFS...AND THE UKMET...AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 14.6N 123.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.5N 124.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.5N 127.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 128.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N 130.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 134.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Boris","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008\r\n \r\nNIGHTTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE OF\r\nBORIS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. \r\nIN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN AN EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH\r\nBROKEN TO NORTH.  THE PERSISTENCE OF THE EYE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nFEATURE IS REAL...AND THAT BORIS HAS FINALLY ATTAINED HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB/TAFB.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND SHEAR ACROSS\r\nBORIS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM IS VIRTUALLY\r\nPARALLELING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SUGGESTING THAT ANY WEAKENING OF\r\nBORIS SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nENTER AN ANNULAR STATE DUE TO THE ABOVE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD ALSO FAVOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM. IN A COUPLE DAYS...THE SSTS SHOULD COOL A LITTLE\r\nQUICKER AND HELP ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THIS\r\nSOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF HWRF/GFS/LGEM/SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12... A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  BORIS\r\nHAS BEEN IGNORING THE MODELS SUGGESTING A SLOWDOWN AND IS\r\nCONTINUING A RELATIVELY STEADY FORWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THE\r\nCOMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH THE HURRICANE...PERHAPS\r\nBECAUSE OF THE MODELS OVERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION WITH\r\nA DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nGUIDANCE FROM EARLIER IS THAT A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE\r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO.  ALL MODELS RESPOND BY\r\nTURNING BORIS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SHOWING SOME DECELERATION. \r\nTHE RIDGE THEN RESTRENGTHENS BEYOND DAY 3...CAUSING A WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF BORIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE\r\nTREND OF SPEEDING THE SYSTEM UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES\r\nON THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NOT TOO FAR\r\nAWAY FROM THE UKMET AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 14.6N 124.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.6N 125.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 14.7N 127.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 128.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 15.3N 129.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 15.0N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 14.3N 136.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Boris","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME OBSCURED IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DISAPPEARING SHORTLY AFTER 0900 UTC\r\nWHEN A TRMM OVERPASS REVEALED ABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\nSTILL 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND EVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nHAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY SINCE THEN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 65 KT.  BORIS MIGHT HOLD ON TO HURRICANE STATUS A LITTLE\r\nWHILE LONGER...BUT A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD NOT BE FAR BEHIND. \r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SLOWLY COOL\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...THEN DECREASE FASTER AFTER THE\r\nCYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.  GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS.  A MORE RAPID DECLINE IS FORECAST AT 3\r\nTO 5 DAYS DUE TO THE COOLER WATERS AND AN EXPECTED SLIGHT INCREASE\r\nIN THE WIND SHEAR BY THAT TIME...AND BORIS COULD DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nGENERALLY CALLS FOR FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nBORIS APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n270/10...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nTO ERODE SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER LOW\r\nSEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST INDICATES A DECELERATION AND A SLIGHT BEND TO THE\r\nRIGHT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AFTER THE WEAKENING CYCLONE PROCEEDS WITHIN\r\nTHE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS GENERALLY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 14.6N 125.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 14.7N 126.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 127.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 15.3N 129.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N 130.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 15.2N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 14.8N 137.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS HAS FAILED TO DISPLAY AN EYE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED GOES\r\nIMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 1425 UTC INCLUDED\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT IN THE 25-KM-RESOLUTION RETRIEVALS. \r\nBORIS MIGHT STILL HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME...AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY A LONE 65-KT RETRIEVAL IN THE 12.5-KM QUIKSCAT RETRIEVALS...BUT\r\nTHE GRADUAL DETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THEN\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT.  SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS OR SO...THEN DECREASE FASTER WHILE\r\nFALLING TO 25C OR LESS THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A MORE RAPID DECLINE AND EVENTUAL DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBORIS CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN...A LITTLE SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nANTICIPATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/7.  THE\r\nSTORM IS HEADED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTH THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 140W AND NORTH OF 25N.  A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF BORIS WILL PROBABLY PREVAIL FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNTIL THAT TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND RIDGING\r\nBUILDS BACK IN.  BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH\r\nOF WEST IN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS OTHERWISE\r\nVERY SIMILAR...INCLUDING THAT THE TRACK REMAINS GENERALLY ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 15.0N 125.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 15.2N 126.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 15.6N 127.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 16.0N 129.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 16.2N 130.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 15.5N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 15.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF BORIS HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS\r\nEVENING.  HOWEVER...AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nEYE FEATURE SEEN EARLIER TODAY IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO ERODE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT...WHICH IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM BOTH \r\nSAB AND TAFB. \r\n\r\nBORIS HAS JOGGED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nBUT A LONGER TERM AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/7 KT.  BORIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREBUILD WESTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BORIS TO TURN\r\nBACK TOWARD THE WEST.  LATER...NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD\r\nSTEER BORIS SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A\r\nSHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nAND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...AND FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE 18Z NOGAPS SOLUTION...WHICH\r\nSHOWS LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...IS DISCOUNTED.\r\n\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE TO COOL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n2 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY FASTER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nCLOSELY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF BORIS MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...THE SSTS WOULD DECREASE QUICKER WHICH WOULD\r\nRESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE THAN INDICATED BELOW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 15.5N 125.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 15.9N 126.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 16.4N 128.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 16.8N 129.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 16.9N 130.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 16.0N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Boris","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n\r\nSIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...THE EYE OF BORIS HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED\r\nIN SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN FACT BORIS LOOKS\r\nEVEN STRONGER WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.  ALTHOUGH CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 77 AND 65 KT RESPECTIVELY... \r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL ONLY BE BUMPED BACK UP TO 65 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THIS ESTIMATE IS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MAY NOT BE EFFECTIVELY\r\nMIXING ITS STRONGEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE.  \r\n \r\nBORIS IS CONTINUING A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT\r\nABOUT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS\r\nAS THE HURRICANE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nTHE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN THEREAFTER...FORCING THE\r\nSYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE\r\nSTORM WILL ALSO LIKELY BE MUCH WEAKER IN A FEW DAYS...MEANING THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BE STEERED MORE BY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGING.  \r\nCOMPUTER MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF BORIS SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY\r\nFAST DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS NO LONGER\r\nPARALLELING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nAND INSTEAD MOVING INTO THE COLDER WATER QUICKLY.  ALL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH\r\nRELATIVELY RAPIDLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.   IF\r\nBORIS DOES NOT TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD OCCUR FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 15.9N 126.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 16.4N 127.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 16.9N 128.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 17.1N 129.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 17.1N 130.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.7N 133.1W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Boris","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-07-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE 77 AND 65\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE EYE/EYEWALL STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED\r\nBUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...AND THE 24-25C WATER NOW APPEARS TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL. \r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 65 KT.  WITH THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKING BORIS OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...A WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN VERY SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  BORIS HAS BEEN STRONG AND DEEP ENOUGH\r\nOVER THE LAST DAY OR SO TO FEEL A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  AS BORIS DECAYS OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...A RETURN TO A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 16.5N 127.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 128.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N 129.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 17.5N 130.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 16.8N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 16.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-07-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS IS WEAKENING QUICKLY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z SHOWED NO\r\nBELIEVABLE VECTORS HIGHER THAN 50 KT.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO\r\nWARM TODAY AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT PASS.  WITH SSTS NO HIGHER\r\nTHAN 24C ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK...A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED UNTIL BORIS DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR\r\nLESS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  AS BORIS DECAYS OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...A RETURN TO A WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO MORE LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE UKMET...MEDIUM BAM...AND SHALLOW BAM. \r\nTHESE MODELS ARE FASTER THAN MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 16.9N 127.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.3N 128.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 129.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.4N 130.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.2N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS IS STUBBORNLY CONTINUING TO DISPLAY RELATIVELY SYMMETRIC DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DESPITE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS THIS EVENING.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBER ESTIMATES WERE 4.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...THE CIMSS AMSU TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED ONLY 52\r\nKT FROM A 2229Z AMSU PASS.  THIS LOWER VALUE IS CONSISTENT WITH AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING ABOUT 50 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 50 KT.  A 1738Z ASCAT PASS...THOUGH\r\nIT MISSED BORIS' CENTER...DID CONFIRM THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY.\r\n\r\nBORIS' TRACK CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7-8 KT.  ALL OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN IMMEDIATE TURN TOWARD THE WEST...BUT THE\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN TOO QUICK IN MAKING THIS TURN OVER THE LAST COUPLE\r\nOF RUNS.  THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST MOVEMENT TODAY LIKELY IS THE\r\nRESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF A STILL DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG\r\nWITH THE RATHER VIGOROUS MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF BORIS. \r\nBUT IF THE STORM IS INDEED ABOUT TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND\r\nIT IS ANTICIPATED HERE THAT IT WILL...THEN THE TURN TO THE WEST AND\r\nTHEN WEST-SOUTHWEST SHOULD MATERIALIZE.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nWEIGHTED MORE TOWARD PERSISTENCE AT 12 HR AND THEN PRIMARILY UPON\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND HWRF AT LONGER TIME PERIODS.  THIS TRACK\r\nIS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR.\r\n\r\nBORIS WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF 23C SHORTLY...AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nEXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD JUST TO ITS NORTHWEST.  IT MAY VERY\r\nWELL BE THAT TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE REINVIGORATION OF BORIS IS ITS\r\nLAST GASP BEFORE SUCCUMBING TO THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...IS\r\nBASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 17.7N 128.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.0N 129.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 18.2N 130.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 18.2N 130.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 17.9N 132.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 17.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 15.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS APPEARS TO FINALLY BE GIVING IN TO THE COLDER WATERS OVER\r\nWHICH IT IS MOVING.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY IN\r\nBOTH COVERAGE AND STRENGTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LAGGING BEHIND TO THE SOUTH.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS BACK AT 0226Z SHOWED THAT MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS WERE\r\nSTILL NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 45 KT SINCE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED\r\nSINCE THEN.  CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE\r\nCOOLER WATERS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND\r\nBORIS IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM\r\nIS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL FLOW...AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 17.3N 128.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.5N 129.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.4N 130.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.1N 131.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.7N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 15.5N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 14.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING\r\nDETACHED FROM THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BOTH SHEAR AND COOL WATERS\r\nARE REALLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 40 KNOTS AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  BORIS\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. \r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...BORIS SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST AS\r\nIT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL. THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 17.8N 129.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.8N 131.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nBORIS HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  BECAUSE BORIS WAS A HURRICANE AND IS SPINNING\r\nDOWN VERY SLOWLY...WE ARE ASSUMING THAT THERE ARE STILL SOME 35-KNOT\r\nWINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BORIS IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATER\r\nAND EMBEDDED WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO A CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED. BORIS COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN A\r\nDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE SWIRL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE\r\nLOW LEVEL FLOW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STEER BORIS MORE TO THE WEST\r\nSOUTH WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 17.3N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.2N 130.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 16.6N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 16.3N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n\r\nBORIS REMAINS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED\r\nCONVECTION.  BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUED WEAKENING FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A 30 KT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SINCE BORIS IS OVER COOL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT....IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HR OR SO...WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE IN 72-96 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/6 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 17.1N 130.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 16.9N 131.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 132.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 16.3N 133.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.9N 135.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N 138.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP022008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2008\r\n\r\nBORIS HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS AND\r\nTHUS NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA REQUIRED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE COOL WATERS AND\r\nSTABLE AIR WERE THE LIKELY CAUSES OF BORIS' DEMISE.  THE REMNANT\r\nLOW OF BORIS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE CYCLONE'S NORTHWEST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 17.1N 130.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 16.9N 131.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 16.6N 132.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.1N 134.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 15.7N 135.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008\r\n\r\nRECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 1075 MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT SURFACE CIRCULATION DEFINITION\r\nTO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE HAD BEEN\r\nSTRUGGLING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS TO CLOSE OFF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION...WHICH\r\nPROBABLY WAS DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AIR MASS. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...ON SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY\r\n4.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/8...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCREATED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE REGION FROM\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE TROUGH\r\nRETROGRADES AND GRADUALLY FILLS. AFTERWARD...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nA MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 13.5N 123.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 13.9N 124.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.3N 125.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.6N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.7N 129.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 138.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 143.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 27 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SYSTEM HAS A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND THAT\r\nSTRETCHES INTO THE ITCZ...GIVING A RATHER ASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE TO\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO STORM STRENGTH AND IT COULD BE NAMED ON THE\r\nNEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nLIKELY TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH IS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nEXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD NOTED AHEAD OF THREE-E.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST CONSENSUS...\r\nICON.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 300/8.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY NOTED\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT OUT\r\nWITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALBEIT JUST A TAD SLOWER.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE\r\nTO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFOR NOW...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THREE-E AND BORIS WILL REMAIN FAR\r\nENOUGH APART SO AS TO AVOID ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN\r\nTHEIR CIRCULATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 14.2N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 124.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.8N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 14.9N 129.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 15.0N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 15.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE BUT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED. T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE\r\nCYCLONE ONLY HAS A DAY OR TWO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT\r\n6 KNOTS. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...A TURN MORE TO THE WEST IS\r\nANTICIPATED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE AND WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 14.3N 123.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.7N 124.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.0N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 15.0N 142.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1018Z NOAA-18 AMSU-B MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS REVEAL IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTH AND\r\nEAST PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND AN EARLIER 0358Z QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nTHAT DEPICTED A FEW BELIEVABLE 35 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT...THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM.  FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS CRISTINA CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE WITHIN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND OVER COOLER WATER WITHIN\r\nTHE 36 TO 48 HOUR PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED OFF OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.  OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...A MID TO\r\nUPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN NORTH OF CRISTINA IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE LOW FILLING AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  THEREFORE...A\r\nTURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED...WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH A\r\nBLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 14.4N 124.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 127.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 129.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 131.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 139.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 143.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A WELL\r\nDEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IMPROVEMENT\r\nAND BELIEVABLE 40 KT WINDS RETRIEVED FROM A 1402Z QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE CALLING FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WITH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CRISTINA...AND\r\nULTIMATELY...TO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. A FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFS...UKM AND\r\nECMWF...ARE INDICATING A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH TIME. \r\nAPPARENTLY...THIS IS DUE TO A WEAKER CYCLONE REFLECTION IN THE\r\nFIELDS AND AN OBVIOUS INTERACTION WITH THE ITCZ.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THESE MODELS AND IS\r\nNUDGED CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL.  THESE MODELS PAINT\r\nA MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  \r\n \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 14.6N 125.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 14.7N 126.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 14.9N 128.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 130.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 15.0N 132.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N 141.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CRISTINA HAS MAINTAINED\r\nTIGHT BANDING AND MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...WHILE A CIMSS MICROWAVE INTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTS ABOUT 50\r\nKT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nCRISTINA'S CURRENT MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED TO ITS\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED BY ALL MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF\r\nTO INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT...CAUSING A MOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS.  BEYOND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL AND GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH UNREALISTICALLY HAS CRISTINA BECOME\r\nSTATIONARY AND THEN ABSORBED BY BORIS.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OF CRISTINA DURING THE DAY...IT\r\nIS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. IN\r\nFACT...THE LAST FEW IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW WARMING CLOUD\r\nTOP TEMPERATURES.  THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE QUITE MARGINAL WITH SSTS\r\nAT 26C NOW AND COOLING TO 24C IN TWO DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nIT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMICS WILL PREVAIL.\r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 14.9N 126.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 127.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 129.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 14.8N 131.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 14.6N 133.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 14.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 14.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-06-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER REACHING AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KT LATE SATURDAY...CRISTINA HAS\r\nWEAKENED.  ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR\r\nSTORM CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 40 KT AND THIS IS PROBABLY A\r\nGENEROUS ESTIMATE OF THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  CRISTINA IS FEELING\r\nTHE EFFECTS OF A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND IS APPROACHING MARGINAL\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITH THE\r\nSYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY.  HOWEVER...IF \r\nDEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REGENERATE SIGNIFICANTLY...CRISTINA MAY\r\nLOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS SOONER THAN SHOWN HERE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THAT GIVEN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSTORM IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST AT AROUND 8 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  AN EAST-SOUTHEAST TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CRISTINA OR\r\nITS REMNANT SHOULD PRODUCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 14.6N 126.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 128.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 14.4N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 14.2N 134.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 14.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 14.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-06-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES\r\nINDICATE CRISTINA AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH...A STRONG DIURNAL BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF CRISTINA.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY KEEPS\r\nCRISTINA AT MINIMUM TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nCRISTINA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE AIR\r\nMASS AND OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...SUGGESTING A\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  CONSEQUENTLY...CRISTINA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/7. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE\r\nMODELS INDICATE GRADUAL BUILDING OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF CRISTINA...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE CRISTINA IN A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.  THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE CORRECTED DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0232Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 14.5N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.4N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.4N 131.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 14.2N 133.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 14.0N 135.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 14.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-06-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE CRISTINA HAS BECOME\r\nINTERMITTENTLY PARTLY EXPOSED DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...THE CYCLONE INSISTS UPON REMAINING AT TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  AN IMPRESSIVE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAS ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HOLDS AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND\r\nICON MODELS.  CRISTINA IS MOVING WITHIN A DRYER MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE AND OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING\r\nWITHIN THE DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A STRENGTHENING\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE EVOLVING LARGE SCALE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 14.4N 128.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.2N 129.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.1N 131.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N 134.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N 136.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 14.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 14.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-06-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF CRISTINA HAS TUCKED WELL UNDERNEATH THE CANOPY OF COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INTENSIFIED SOME OVER THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO A 3.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND REMAINED A 2.5 FROM SAB.  AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS\r\nSHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE TROPICAL STORM FORCE VECTORS WITH ONE OF\r\n40 KT.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT.  THE ASCAT\r\nOBSERVATIONS ALSO ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE 34 KT WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT 265/8.  A CONTINUATION OF\r\nJUST-SOUTH-OF-DUE-WESTWARD STEERING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FROM\r\nTHE NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF CRISTINA\r\nIS ANTICIPATED.  AFTER TWO DAYS...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF\r\nCRISTINA WILL LIKELY BE ADVECTED ALONG BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THIS EVENING AND THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWHILE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPINGING UPON CRISTINA...THE MAIN\r\nINHIBITING FACTORS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION ARE THE RATHER COOL\r\nWATERS AND STABLE AIRMASS.  SLOW DECAY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS\r\nSTATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 14.3N 129.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 14.1N 130.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 13.9N 133.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 13.7N 135.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 13.6N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 13.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 13.5N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-06-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CRISTINA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS A RATHER SHARP EDGE TO THE\r\nHIGH CLOUD MASS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...INDICATIVE OF\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DUE TO\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM BORIS LOCATED NOT FAR\r\nTO CRISTINA'S EAST.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS USING A SHEAR PATTERN\r\nMEASUREMENT ARE YIELDING INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT.  HOWEVER THE\r\nDISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AS WELL AS\r\nEARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...ARGUE FOR A SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEED. \r\nTHEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND A RELATIVELY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nLIKELY TO RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...THE SHIPS PREDICTION... AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...ICON.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 260/9.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nLITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN CRISTINA AND BORIS...IN TERMS OF\r\nSTEERING.  THEREFORE THE PRINCIPAL STEERING MECHANISM IS THE\r\nEASTERLY CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A\r\nCONTINUED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 14.2N 129.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.9N 131.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 13.6N 133.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N 141.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 13.5N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0958Z TRMM OVERPASS DEPICT CRISTINA\r\nAS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  20 KT OF\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED WHAT IS REMAINING OF THE\r\nCONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nADDITIONALLY...CLOUD TOPS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE SYSTEM HAVE\r\nWARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE\r\nLOWERED TO 30 KT.\r\n \r\nPERSISTENT SHEAR...A STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD REDUCE CRISTINA TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE 24 HOUR\r\nPERIOD. DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\nTHIS IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nTRMM PASS AND A 0621Z AMSU-B IMAGE...CRISTINA APPEARS TO BE\r\nINCREASING A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED WHILE MAINTAINING A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CRISTINA TO\r\nCONTINUE ON THIS TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW\r\nPRODUCED BY A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 14.3N 131.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.2N 132.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 13.8N 134.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 13.6N 136.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 13.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CRISTINA HAS BEEN\r\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVENTION FOR CLOSE TO 6 HOURS...AND HAS VIRTUALLY\r\nBECOME A SKELETAL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  A 1451 QUIKSCAT OVERPASS\r\nREVEALED 30 KT WINDS WITHIN A THIN RAIN BAND DISPLACED WELL TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS\r\nSINCE DISSIPATED.  GIVEN THE PRESENT TREND IN THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  FURTHER WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED AND CRISTINA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 14.0N 132.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 13.8N 133.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 13.5N 135.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP032008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032008\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2008\r\n \r\nCRISTINA HAS NOW BEEN A CONVECTION-LESS SWIRL SINCE AROUND 12Z AND\r\nNO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM'S\r\nDEMISE WAS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY COOL WATERS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. \r\nCRISTINA'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...ADVECTED ALONG BY\r\nTHE LOWER LEVEL FLOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO BEFORE FINAL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 14.1N 133.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.1N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 14.1N 136.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.1N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2008\r\n \r\nASCAT DATA AT AROUND 16Z SHOWED THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHWEST\r\nOF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAD A BROAD CENTER ELONGATED NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nTO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SOMEWHAT\r\nCONSOLIDATED AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ELONGATION.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS THE OBSERVED WINDS IN THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES INTO MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nRIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...WHICH RESULTS IN WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS.  THE ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS...WHICH KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ALIVE FOR 5 DAYS...FORECAST A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR\r\n48-72 HR AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER.  THIS IS SUPPORTED\r\nBY THE UKMET AND GFS UNTIL THEIR MODEL CYCLONES DISSIPATE NEAR 96\r\nHR.  THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE ECMWF.  THERE IS A CHANCE OF ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24 HR AS THE CYCLONE CONSOLIDATES.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nWITH WITH FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 36-48 HR.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS\r\nFORECAST INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 72-96 HR.  SHOULD THIS\r\nVERIFY...THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS IN A BAND THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nABOUT 200 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  WHILE\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE...\r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM ZIHUATANEJO TO PUERTO\r\nVALLARTA SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS IN CASE IT COMES CLOSER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST OR THE WIND FIELD IS LARGER THAN FORECAST. \r\nRAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE\r\nWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 15.9N 107.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 16.4N 107.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N 109.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 19.5N 113.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SLOWLY BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE ARE VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITHING\r\nDEVELOPING BANDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  HOWEVER THE BANDS DO NOT YET WRAP SUFFICIENTLY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER TO CLASSIFY THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL STORM VIA THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM WAS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY EVEN THOUGH AN\r\nAMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED A BROAD AND NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  I AM HOLDING OFF ON UPGRADING\r\nFOUR-E ON THIS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT APPEARS\r\nMODESTLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM WATERS AND MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nTODAY.  WITHIN 36-48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT NEARS MARGINAL\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED THERE IS A SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN\r\nUSUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION.  THE LATTER\r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO\r\nMEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS LIKELY TO SLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST AND CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL AND U.K.\r\nMET OFFICE FORECAST TRACKS THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND FOLLOWS THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 16.6N 107.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 17.2N 107.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 17.9N 108.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.6N 109.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 19.1N 110.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 19.8N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n \r\nA 1252 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A WELL-DEFINED BAND TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nREACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n35 KT. A SHIP LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY REPORTED 27 KT AT 1200 UTC. ASSUMING THAT THE WINDS ARE\r\nSTRONGER IN THE CONVECTION...THIS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT UPGRADING THE\r\nSYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. UNFORTUNATELY...QUIKSCAT HAS\r\nMISSED THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/7.  DOUGLAS IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nA GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH\r\nSOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE GFDL MODEL IS ON THE RIGHT\r\nSIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  THIS MODEL HAS PERFORMED WELL IN THIS PORTION OF THE\r\nBASIN AND CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD AND IS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER GREATER THAN 26 DEGREE SSTS FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST WHICH\r\nSHOULD KEEP STRENGTHENING GRADUAL.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE AND INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50\r\nKT IN 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DOUGLAS WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING AND THE FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHE CYCLONE DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTERESTS IN\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOUGLAS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 17.8N 107.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.2N 108.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.1N 108.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 19.6N 109.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.1N 110.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.8N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 21.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DOUGLAS HAS DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON AS\r\nCLOUDS TOPS HAVE WARMED AND A LONE BAND OF CONVECTION REMAINS TO\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  SEVERAL\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES TODAY REVEAL THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS\r\nSOMEWHAT BROAD AND SPRAWLING.  IN THE OUTER RAINBAND THAT CAME\r\nASHORE NEAR MANZANILLO...A COUPLE REPORTS OF WINDS OF 30-35 KT WERE\r\nRECEIVED... ONE FROM THE OBSERVATION SITE AT MANZANILLO AND ONE\r\nFROM A SHIP LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n35 KT WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...DOUGLAS HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OVER\r\nWATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEGREE C.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE ONLY\r\nSHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS LOWERED SLIGHTLY.  THEREAFTER... DOUGLAS SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN\r\nAS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH DOUGLAS FORECAST TO MOVE BETWEEN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO.  THE GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...INCLUDING THE GFDL WHICH NOW\r\nKEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 18.1N 108.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.9N 109.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 111.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.6N 112.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 21.2N 113.8W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.2N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2008\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING...WITH THE BROAD\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF THE NOT VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  ADDITIONALLY...A SHIP WELL NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER REPORTED 33 KT AT 00Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n35 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nAND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 20 KT\r\nOF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTER AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8.  DOUGLAS IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nORIENTED EAST-WEST NORTH OF DOUGLAS DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TO\r\nBECOME A WESTERLY MOTION BEFORE DOUGLAS DISSIPATES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS CALL FOR DOUGLAS OR ITS\r\nREMAINS TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST AFTER 72 HR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH\r\nA DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE GULF OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC.\r\n\r\nDOUGLAS SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HR AND MOVE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER THEREAFTER.  THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN FROM THIS POINT ON.  SINCE DOUGLAS\r\nHAS ONE MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM BEFORE CROSSING THE 26C\r\nISOTHERM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE FIRST 12 HR FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION IN\r\n96 HR.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nPREVENTS ANY STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND DOUGLAS DISSIPATES FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 18.8N 109.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.4N 109.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 110.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.7N 112.8W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS IS IN THE PROCESS OF COMING APART.  A SERIES OF PASSIVE\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nOFF TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 330/8...WHILE THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nSTEADILY DYING OFF.  AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT ABOUT 0500 UTC STILL\r\nINDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS GENERATING SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 35\r\nKT...EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS OCCURRING AT THAT\r\nTIME...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR NOW.  THE\r\nRECENT RAPID DECLINE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS DOUGLAS\r\nWILL BE A DEPRESSION SHORTLY...AND IT SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR LESS IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP\r\nSOON.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 19.6N 109.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 109.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.4N 111.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 112.1W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 20.6N 113.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 20.5N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DOUGLAS HAS VANISHED AND ALL IS LEFT\r\nIS A CIRCULATION OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS HEADING TOWARD\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.\r\nDOUGLAS IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7\r\nKNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.1N 109.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 111.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.6N 112.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION SUGGEST THAT DOUGLAS WAS\r\nPROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY COULD HAVE BEEN 35 KNOTS INSTEAD OF THE 30 KT ESTIMATED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND IT IS NOW ASSUMED THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER...SOME PATCHES OF STRONGER GUSTS ARE\r\nPROBABLY OCCURRING NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NEVERTHELESS... DOUGLAS IS\r\nOVER COOL WATERS AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD SWIRL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7\r\nKNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 20.7N 110.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 21.0N 111.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP042008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042008\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2008\r\n \r\nDOUGLAS CONTINUES AS A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT HAS NOW\r\nBEEN WITHOUT CONVECTION FOR OVER 18 HOURS.  AN SSM/I OVERPASS NEAR\r\n00Z SHOWED WINDS NEAR 30 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...AND IT IS\r\nESTIMATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE THAT TIME. \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND IT SHOULD DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12\r\nHR OR LESS.  THE REMNANTS OF DOUGLAS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nDOUGLAS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 21.0N 111.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.1N 112.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.2N 113.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.2N 114.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-12 05:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n1000 PM PDT FRI JUL 11 2008\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A NUMBER OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES\r\nSOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A 0015Z\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS WITHING THE DEVELOPING SPIRAL\r\nBAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  ADDITIONALLY...DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 30 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AND THE SHIPS SHOW THE EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING AS THE\r\nCYCLONE TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 3 OF DAYS.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...THEN HOLDING AT 60 KT THROUGH DAY 5.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/14...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID LAYER\r\nFLOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WESTWARD\r\nOVER WESTERN MEXICO.  LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE RIDGE WILL BUILD FURTHER WEST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AS AN UPPER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE AREA WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHWEST.  THIS SYNOPTIC\r\nSTEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE\r\nGFS BAMM MID-LAYER MEAN TRAJECTORY MODEL.       \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0500Z 12.3N  96.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 13.1N  97.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N 100.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 108.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 116.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 0316\r\nASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nINTO A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATED SET AT\r\n35 KT.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY COLD -80C CLOUD TOPS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE PERPLEXING.  BOTH\r\nDYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW LITTLE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM INDICATE ELIDA WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN\r\n48 HOURS.  THE SUPER ENSEMBLE IS SORT OF A COMPROMISE OF THE TWO\r\nSOLUTIONS...SUGGESTING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM JUST BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 3 DAYS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE SHIPS...LGEM AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH ELIDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PERIOD....COOLER WATER AND\r\nINCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.  \r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT SLOWER NOW...300/12...WITHIN\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nREFLECT A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED ECMWF...GFDL...THE FSSE SUPER ENSEMBLE AND THE\r\nGFS BAMM AND BAMD TRAJECTORY MODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 12.5N  96.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 13.3N  98.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.2N 100.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N 102.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.7N 104.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 108.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n \r\nA TIMELY 1227 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE HELPED TO DETERMINE THE\r\nLOCATION OF ELIDA'S CENTER THIS MORNING...WHICH IS NOW EMBEDDED \r\nWITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ELIDA'S OUTFLOW REMAINS A LITTLE\r\nRESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING SOME\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN\r\nDISAGREEMENT THIS MORNING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND KEEPS ELIDA BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  MEANWHILE...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nIN 36-48 HOURS.    THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nGUIDANCE PREDICTS A 33% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR GREATER INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nPREDICTED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14 KT.  ELIDA IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO.\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE GFS...WHICH SLOWS THE STORM DOWN AS THE MODEL DEVELOPS A\r\nSTRONGER CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF ELIDA.  THIS SOLUTION SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 13.2N  98.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.9N 100.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 102.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 104.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.3N 106.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RATHER WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND\r\nOVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...WHILE NEW\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER.  ASCAT DATA \r\nFROM 1550 UTC INDICATE THAT THE WINDS WERE AROUND 40 KT...WHICH IS\r\nIN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35\r\nTO 45 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ELIDA AS THE OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS NEARLY NON-EXISTENT OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAIN\r\nQUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO TO ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING...IT INSISTS THAT ELIDA WILL REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE HWRF IS VERY SIMILAR IN\r\nBRINGING THE STORM TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.  MEANWHILE...THE\r\nLGEM AND GFDL MODELS ONLY PREDICT MODEST STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nNOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING...BUT THE FORECAST IS\r\nLESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  WEAKENING IS INDICATED\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS AS ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nBERTHA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/15 KT.  THE \r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SOUTH OF A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS...BUT\r\nOTHERWISE IS UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 13.5N 100.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 102.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 15.6N 104.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.4N 107.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 109.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 115.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 12 2008\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST WITH ASSOCIATED -80C CLOUD TOPS.  THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL OF A\r\n2338Z SSMI OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN PINPOINTING THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...JUST UNDER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CDO.\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND\r\n45 KT RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THE IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE CANOPY AND\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HAMPERING THE\r\nCYCLONE DURING THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS APPEARS TO BE DECREASING\r\nNOW...WITH IMPROVING OUTFLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  THIS MATCHES A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...HWRF...AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST AS ELIDA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF AN ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO.  NO\r\nMAJOR TRACK CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DERIVED FROM A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 14.4N 101.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 15.3N 103.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.8N 107.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.2N 109.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n\r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT STRONG BANDING OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND ALSO ALONG THE WEST SEMICIRCLE...WHERE\r\nTHE OUTFLOW ALOFT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST IMPROVED.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nSTILL SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR TO POSITION THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE\r\nCANOPY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM BOTH\r\nAGENCIES...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...USING A BLEND OF THE SUPER ENSEMBLE...HWRF...AND THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS.  AFTER A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KT AROUND THE 36\r\nHOUR PERIOD...A WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST AS ELIDA MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS WERE WEIGHTED\r\nHEAVILY IN ESTIMATING THE INITIAL MOTION AT 290/14. ELIDA CONTINUES\r\nTO TRACK WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A\r\nANCHORED ANTICYCLONE OVER MEXICO.  A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH SITUATED JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nAND DRIFT WESTWARD TO A POSITION ALONG 130W IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THIS\r\nWILL ALLOW THE ANTICYCLONE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO TO BUILD WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS...PROMPTING ELIDA TO\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE EUROPEAN GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...GFDL...AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 14.8N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.6N 104.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.3N 106.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N 108.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.1N 110.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG BURSTING PATTERN NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF ELIDA WITH BANDING FEATURES BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. \r\nOVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC OVERNIGHT...\r\nWITH INCREASING OUTFLOW NOTED.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE UNCHANGED...AND SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55\r\nKT.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO ALLOW ONLY SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THAT GENERAL IDEA IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  SSTS BEGIN TO COOL BELOW 80F AFTER 36 HR...SO\r\nA SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.  \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL DATA SUGGEST ELIDA CONTINUES MOVING TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST...ABOUT 290/13.  MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN ITSELF TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  A WESTWARD TURN APPEARS LIKELY AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nTHE RIDGING STRENGTHENS AND THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.9N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 111.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n\r\nTHE STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION OVER ELIDA TEMPORARILY ABATED A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO BEFORE RESUMING NEAR THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE\r\nCENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM BURST WITH\r\nNO SIGNS OF AN EYEWALL FORMING.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT.  ELIDA\r\nHAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT WITH WARM WATER AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE.  HOWEVER...ALL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE STORM WILL FALL JUST SHY OF BECOMING A HURRICANE OR EVEN START\r\nTO WEAKEN SOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY HIGHER THAN MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE INITIALLY...SHOWING THE STORM FLIRTING WITH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...AND THEN END UP CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS BY THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.  \r\n\r\nELIDA REMAINS ON TRACK...290/12.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING WITH RIDGING FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE SYSTEM.  THE UKMET SHOWS THE WEAKEST RIDGE...ALLOWING A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR LONGER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE\r\nGFS TURNS ELIDA ALMOST IMMEDIATELY WESTWARD...PERHAPS DUE TO A\r\nRATHER WEAK INITIAL VORTEX IN THE MODEL.  OVERALL THE MODELS ARE A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nBE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 15.6N 105.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 17.0N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008\r\n\r\nSHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nELIDA HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS IS EVIDENT IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF EARLIER ESTIMATES AND IS NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nBEEN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT DURING\r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS.  IT IS TEMPTING TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY A\r\nLITTLE...HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF AN EYE FORMING IN\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...THEREFORE THE INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP ELIDA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. \r\nAFTER THE STORM REACHES COOLER WATERS AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN MORE WESTWARD.  DUE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS UNCHANGED THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nWITH THE TRACK ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...ELIDA COULD HAVE A FEW\r\nMORE HOURS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE ONCE AGAIN SHOWS\r\nELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nPREDICTIONS CONTINUE TO KEEP ELIDA BELOW 65 KT.  GIVEN THE IMPROVED\r\nOUTFLOW AND MORE TIME OVER 26 DEGREE C OR GREATER WATER...THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE...AND ONCE AGAIN\r\nBRINGS ELIDA TO HURRICANE STATUS.  LOOKING AT THE INTENSITY\r\nPROBABILITY TABLE THAT ACCOMPANIES THIS ADVISORY...THE CHANCES OF\r\nELIDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS ARE ABOUT 50-50.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 15.5N 106.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 15.9N 108.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 16.4N 110.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.8N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 17.0N 125.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nBOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED\r\nTO 4.0 AND A RECENT AMSU PASS INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED\r\nBENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT MAKING ELIDA THE SECOND\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.  GIVEN THE PRESENT\r\nTRENDS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AS SUGGESTED BY ALL OF\r\nTHE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS.  IN A DAY OR SO...ELIDA WILL BEGIN\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT. \r\n \r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 285/14. THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS ELIDA'S WESTWARD MOTION. THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. IN 2-3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN MORE TOWARDS THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH BASED ON A\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 16.2N 108.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.6N 109.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 111.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 17.3N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 65 AND 77 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AND AMSU ANALYSES ARE ALSO\r\nAT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY.  RECENT AMSU AND AMSR OVERPASSES\r\nALSO INDICATE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECOMING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT.\r\n\r\nRECENT AMSU AND AMSR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS STILL\r\nSOUTH OF 16N...DESPITE AN EARLIER AMSU IMAGE...WHICH MAY HAVE HAD\r\nSOME NAVIGATIONAL PROBLEMS...THAT HAD ELIDA NORTH OF THAT LATITUDE. \r\nAN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE TRACK IS AT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  THE\r\nGLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE BEING MAINTAINED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THE TRACK OF JUST\r\nDUE NORTH OF WESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS.  AT THE EXTENDED TIME\r\nPERIOD...ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WEST OR JUST SOUTH OF WEST AS IT IS\r\nADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...WHICH MAY HAVE\r\nTOO STRONG AND LARGE A VORTEX LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nTRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nELIDA SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT\r\nMOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 24\r\nHOURS.  DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.   THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nDAY...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING DAYS 2 AND 3...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  AFTER THAT...ELIDA WILL\r\nBE OVER COLD WATERS AND SHOULD BE RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH THE\r\nFORECAST RELYING UPON SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 15.9N 109.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 112.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.2N 117.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N 125.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nA RAGGED EYE MADE AN APPEARANCE IN ELIDA THIS AFTERNOON IN THE\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE EYE REMAINED HIDDEN IN THE INFRARED. \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5...OR\r\nABOUT 75-80 KT.  A 1215Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED ABOUT 80 KT.  THE ADT\r\nINDICATED A WEAKER SYSTEM OF 65 KT...THOUGH THIS TECHNIQUE MAY\r\nHAVE DIFFICULTIES IN THAT THE EYE WAS NOT APPARENT IN THE INFRARED. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.\r\n\r\nA 1313Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASS ALONG WITH THE VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION...THE LATTER OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY 275 DEGREES\r\nAT 9 KT.  ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.   \r\nAFTER THAT...ELIDA SHOULD PROCEED WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nRATE AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...UKMET...AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS...AS THE HWRF HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA AND\r\nNOGAPS MAINTAINS TOO LARGE A VORTEX TOO LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE GFS MODEL ALSO PORTRAYS A UNREALISTIC-LOOKING FUJIWARA\r\nINTERACTION WITH A SECONDARY VORTICITY LOBE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nELIDA...SO THIS MODEL TOO IS DOWNPLAYED.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE EARLIER FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nELIDA MAY HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON.  FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A\r\nMORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE RATHER\r\nSHARP BOUNDARY IN THE INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST SIDE OF ELIDA MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE INCREASED SHEAR\r\nABOUT TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...HRWF...AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nA TOPEX/POSEIDON SATELLITE PASS AT 15Z ALLOWED FOR ADJUSTMENT...AND\r\nEXPANSION OUTWARD...OF THE 12 FOOT SEAS RADII AS ANALYZED BY TAFB.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 111.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 17.1N 115.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 17.5N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 14 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO HINT OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSINCE THIS AFTERNOON...NOR ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO SEE WHAT\r\nIS GOING ON BENEATH THE CLOUDS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB REMAIN AT T4.5...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 75 KT.  ELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OR\r\n275/9 KT.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STAY ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING SOUTH\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  WHILE THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON ELIDA'S FUTURE HEADING...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nMODELS WITH REGARD TO FORWARD SPEED.  THE HWRF AND NOGAPS MAINTAIN\r\nA STRONGER CYCLONE THAT MOVES FASTER...WHILE THE GFDL SLOWS ELIDA\r\nDOWN AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK SHOWS DECELERATION AS ELIDA WEAKENS...BUT IT IS NOT AS SLOW\r\nAS THE GFDL.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE 12Z UKMET AND THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS ELIDA\r\nREMAINS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 27 CELSIUS FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...SSTS WILL GRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING\r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM PREDICTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 16.0N 110.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 16.2N 112.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N 114.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 116.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.3N 118.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 123.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ELIDA IS EXPERIENCING \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS SYMMETRIC.  WHILE THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN APPEARS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED AT T4.5.  THEREFORE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN A LITTLE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ESSENTIALLY SHOW ELIDA MAINTAINING ITS\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS.  HOWEVER...SINCE ELIDA WILL\r\nBE ENCOUNTERING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING IN\r\nLINE WITH THE STATISTICALLY-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. \r\n\r\nELIDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/10.  THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO PROVIDING THE STEERING.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED.  TOWARD THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...TRACK MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nELIDA BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nBUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 16.2N 111.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 112.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N 117.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.4N 119.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 17.5N 131.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ELIDA IS\r\nEXPERIENCING EASTERLY SHEAR WITH ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY LESS SYMMETRIC.  WITH\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS NOW SPLIT BETWEEN T4.0 AND\r\nT4.5...OPTED TO SHOW SLIGHT WEAKENING IN ELIDA BY REDUCING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.  IN TERMS OF INTENSITY...THE FORECAST\r\nREMAINS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DUE TO THE FACT\r\nTHAT THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  \r\n\r\nELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP ELIDA FROM MOVING TOO\r\nFAR TOWARD THE NORTH.  UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE...ALLOWED FOR\r\nA LITTLE IN THE WAY OF NORTHWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM. TOWARD\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS ELIDA BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER SYSTEM. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 16.4N 112.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N 114.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.9N 116.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 17.3N 119.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N 121.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 17.8N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 17.7N 130.9W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 17.5N 134.9W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BANN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n \r\nTHE COLD CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ELIDA CONTINUE TO BECOME LESS\r\nSYMETRIC WITH TIME AS EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER THE STORM. THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS...WHICH DECREASED TO\r\n3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. ALL OF THIS EVIDENCE\r\nPOINTS TO ELIDA CONTINING ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. AS A RESULT...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THERE IS OVERALL\r\nAGREEMENT WITHIN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT ELIDA WILL GRADUALLY\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. \r\n \r\nELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING FOR MUCH OF THE\r\nPERIOD WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THERE SHOULD BE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT TO THE STORM MOTION UNTIL THE RIDGE GETS INTO PLACE BY 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS.  AT THAT POINT...ELIDA SHOULD TAKE AN ALMOST DUE\r\nWESTWARD PATH.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WE OPTED TO FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE\r\nTHAT TAKES ELIDA ON A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST TRACK OWING TO THE\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nDATA FROM A 1322 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WERE USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL\r\n34 KT AND 50 KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHERN SEMICRICLE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 16.5N 113.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 115.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.3N 117.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.7N 120.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.9N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 18.1N 128.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 132.6W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 135.9W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BANN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 15 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION WRAPPING NICELY AROUND A\r\nMICROWAVE EYE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT\r\n00Z WERE T4.0...65 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT AT THAT TIME WAS 61 KT.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.\r\nELIDA STILL HAS 12-24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND THE\r\nEASTERLY ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS MODEST.  THUS...A BRIEF\r\nREINTENSIFICATION WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.  BY THIS TIME\r\nTOMORROW...HOWEVER...ELIDA'S PASSAGE OVER SUB-26C WATER SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  BY 48 HOURS...WHEN THE SSTS SHOULD BE\r\nNEAR 24C...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE GFS DIDN'T APPEAR TO INITIALIZE ELIDA STRONGLY\r\nENOUGH...AND SEEMS TO MOVE IT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW TOO QUICKLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE REMAINING\r\nPRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...UKMET/GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF/NOGAPS...AND IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 16.4N 114.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 16.6N 116.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 118.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 17.4N 121.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 17.6N 123.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN EYE BRIEFLY\r\nAPPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW EXPANDING IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO T4.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. WITHIN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS...HOWEVER...ELIDA WILL\r\nBE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...SO THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BY 48 HOURS...WHEN THE SSTS SHOULD BE\r\nNEAR 24C...A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IF ELIDA\r\nREMAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT WOULD\r\nLIKELY TAKE A TRACK A LITTLE NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 16.5N 115.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 117.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N 119.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.8N 125.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THERE IS NO EYE ON INFRARED BUT THERE IS VERY STRONG\r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY CONTINUE TO\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT.   \r\n \r\nELIDA CONTINUES SOUTH OF A STRONG AND PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH FIVE DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUE TO FORECAST ELIDA ON A WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 16.7N 116.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 118.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 17.8N 124.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 18.1N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nT-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH OBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD TO 90 KNOTS. ELIDA IS VERY NEAR COOLER WATERS...SO THIS\r\nCOULD BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.\r\n\r\nELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE\r\nHURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND\r\nSHOULD FORCE ELIDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 17.0N 117.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.3N 119.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 17.7N 122.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE OF ELIDA HAS BECOME LESS\r\nDISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE AS YET UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODEST...ELIDA IS PASSING THE 26C SST\r\nISOTHERM AND SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nKEEPS ELIDA MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A MID\r\nLEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL\r\nA SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...AND AFTER THAT ELIDA SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD\r\nWITH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MERELY\r\nUPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 17.3N 119.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.7N 120.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.0N 123.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 18.2N 128.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 18.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS. THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE EYE CAN NOT BE\r\nCLEARLY SEEN ON IR IMAGES. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE BEGINNING TO COME\r\nDOWN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KNOTS. MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ELIDA WILL WEAKEN FAST...AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE KEEPS ELIDA MOVING WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSTILL A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM...AND AFTER THAT ELIDA SHOULD MOVE\r\nWESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 17.5N 120.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N 122.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 18.0N 125.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 135.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR-E AT 0930Z INDICATES THE CENTER OF ELIDA\r\nIS A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES APPEAR CONSISTENT WITH THAT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW DUE WESTWARD AND A LITTLE FASTER OR 270/14.  OVERALL THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHTFORWARD...LITERALLY...SINCE THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG\r\nTO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE\r\nENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nMORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION...AND AT THE LONGER RANGES TO BE MORE\r\nOF A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF...WHICH DEPICT A MOTION\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL PROBABLY KEEP ELIDA OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER\r\nWATERS FOR A LITTLE LONGER...AND ON A PATH MORE PARALLEL TO THE\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERMS...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nDEPICTS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ONLY\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE IMPLIES WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN\r\nFIVE DAYS...WHILE THE LGEM...GDFL...AND HWRF FORECASTS ARE MORE\r\nSUGGESTIVE THAT ELIDA COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL\r\nMORE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR EVENTUAL DECAY\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 17.1N 122.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 17.2N 124.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.2N 127.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 17.2N 129.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 137.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 16.0N 148.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...EVEN STILL WITH SOMEWHAT OF AN EMBEDDED EYE\r\nFEATURE...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS A\r\nLITTLE BIT TILTED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LAGGING SLIGHTLY\r\nBEHIND TO THE EAST.  THE OVERALL SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS SLOWLY\r\nDEGRADING...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT...A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS.  WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL\r\nTHAT STRONG ALONG THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST TRACK...BUT\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...SO A STEADY\r\nDECLINE IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST.  ONE MIGHT EXPECT THAT A\r\nRELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE SUCH AS ELIDA COULD WEAKEN VERY QUICKLY\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT\r\nFOR THE SHIPS THAT OFTEN DEPICTS WEAKENING OF EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nSYSTEMS A LITTLE TOO QUICKLY...SUGGESTS IT COULD HANG ON AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nA LITTLE BEYOND THAT.  THAT IS THE SOLUTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS ABOUT 270/13...AND\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING REASONING ARE UNCHANGED.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD HEAD ALMOST DUE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE\r\nFIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ELIDA FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO ITS NORTH WHEN IT IS A\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE FARTHER WEST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE HWRF AND GFDL\r\nTRACKS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 17.2N 123.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 17.2N 125.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 17.2N 127.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.1N 130.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.9N 132.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 138.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 150.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Elida","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nDESPITE TRAVERSING OVER COOLER WATERS...ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH -80C COLD TOPS.  AN AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASS DEPICTED AN IRREGULAR EYE BENEATH THE CLOUD\r\nCANOPY.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS AGAIN BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nFINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...65 KT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE\r\nWITH TIME...SO A STEADY WEAKENING IN THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST. \r\nTHIS AGREES WELL WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AN UNCHANGED 270/13...AND\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AND PHILOSOPHY ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE PRACTICALLY DUE WESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LOW TO MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nCLOSELY THE VARIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE \r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 17.3N 124.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 17.3N 126.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 17.2N 129.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N 134.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 139.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 151.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE\r\nCLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LAST REMAINING BAND SITUATED OVER\r\nTHE WEST SEMICIRCLE.  AN ANALYSIS OF THE 0238Z QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES\r\nINDICATED WINDS OF 50 KT OR LESS....BUT THE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WERE 55 AND 65 KT.  SO AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT WHICH\r\nCOULD POSSIBLY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TAKE ITS TOLL ON\r\nELIDA...WEAKENING THE SYSTEM WITH TIME.  THIS IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AND MATCHES A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN ESTIMATED 270/11...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID\r\nLAYER STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  LITTLE\r\nDEVIATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0238Z QUIKSCAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 17.5N 125.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 17.4N 127.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.2N 130.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 16.8N 135.1W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 16.7N 140.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 145.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 153.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA IS TRYING TO FIGHT OFF ITS ENCOUNTER WITH COOL SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...BUT RECENTLY HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A VERY\r\nSMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT...BUT THE INTENSITY TREND IS SHARPLY\r\nDOWNWARD SINCE THE UNDERLYING WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nNOT GET ANY WARMER FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS.  BY THAT\r\nTIME...DEEP CONVECTION MIGHT BE JUST ABOUT GONE.  IT IS DIFFICULT\r\nTO DETERMINE EXACTLY HOW LONG ELIDA CAN REMAIN A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD HAPPEN\r\nSOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS WESTWARD OR 270/13...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS ELIDA\r\nREMAINS SOUTH OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 17.6N 127.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 17.5N 129.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.3N 131.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 17.1N 134.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 136.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA IS NOW A MOSTLY EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH JUST A\r\nLITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION LEFT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nESTIMATES OF THE MAXIMUM WINDS USING A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI\r\nNUMBERS SPAN A WIDE RANGE...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHE LOWER END OF THOSE VALUES AND IS SET TO 35 KT.  ELIDA IS OVER\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 23 CELSIUS...AND ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK THEY ARE NOT GOING TO GET MUCH WARMER ANYTIME\r\nSOON...SO THE SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR MORE THAN HALF A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHERE SHOULD BE NO SURPRISES REGARDING THE PATH OF ELIDA.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/13...AND THE CYCLONE AND ITS EVENTUAL\r\nREMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nAND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 18.0N 128.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 18.0N 130.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 17.8N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 17.7N 135.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.5N 137.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT OVERPASS RETRIEVED THIS AFTERNOON INDICATED THAT ELIDA\r\nHAS NOT YET WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE REMAINS A SMALL\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE EAST OF THE PARTLY EXPOSED\r\nCIRCULATION THAT MAY STILL CONTAIN 35 KT WINDS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH ULTIMATELY SHOULD REDUCE ELIDA\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.  THIS WEAKENING IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT A CONSISTENT 280/12...WITHIN THE\r\nLOW- TO MID-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS PERSISTENT WESTWARD\r\nMOTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 18.2N 129.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 18.1N 131.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 17.9N 134.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.7N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Elida","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nWHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTED OVER THE CYCLONE 6 HOURS AGO HAS\r\nSINCE DISSIPATED...AND ELIDA HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN REDUCED TO A\r\nSKELETON OF ITS FORMER SELF.  WITH THE CYCLONE NOW OVER 23 DEGREE\r\nCELSIUS WATER...REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED AND ELIDA APPEARS WELL\r\nON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  WHILE SOME OF\r\nTHE AVAILABLE MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION SOONER...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS. \r\n\r\nELIDA IS NOW MOVING DUE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n270/12. NOW A SHALLOW CYCLONE...A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 18.1N 131.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N 132.9W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 17.7N 135.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 137.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 140.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Elida","Adv":31,"Date":"2008-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS GONE AND ELIDA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS AND CIRRUS DEBRIS.  THE SYSTEM IS OVER RATHER COOL WATERS\r\nAND CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY TO RESUME TODAY...SO ELIDA WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nELIDA CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 265/10.  LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE HEADING WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE\r\nFORECAST AS THE SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW.  IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW LONG A CLOSED CIRCULATION WILL\r\nLAST...BUT BASED ON THE MODEL GUIDANCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCARRIES A REMNANT LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.8N 132.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 17.7N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 17.4N 136.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.9N 139.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 16.6N 142.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Elida","Adv":32,"Date":"2008-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP062008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nELIDA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nAND...DESPITE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...IS DEEMED TO\r\nNO LONGER QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  MAXIMUM WINDS AT ADVISORY TIME ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT\r\nBASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z...WHICH SHOWED 25-30 KT\r\nWINDS THAT DID NOT APPEAR INFLATED BY RAIN.  THE WINDS ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE REMNANT LOW ARE LIKELY TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM\r\nPROCEEDS WESTWARD.  THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO LAST A\r\nFEW MORE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DISSIPATING DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT ABOUT 260/12...AND A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION OF THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE\r\nCIRCULATION EVENTUALLY OPENS UP INTO A TROUGH IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 17.4N 133.4W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 135.3W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 16.6N 138.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.2N 141.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.8N 144.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 15.5N 151.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION.  THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING IN\r\nEXTENT AND VIGOR OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...AND AT 06Z THE SYSTEM\r\nGARNERED CONSENSUS DVORAK T2.0 CLASSIFICATIONS.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS HARD TO LOCATE PRECISELY...BUT IS SOMEWHERE NEAR THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 310/8.  DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THAT POINT.  IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS HANDLE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/150W. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...WHICH MAINTAINS A\r\nSOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE THROUGHOUT AND IN PARTICULAR NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD DUE TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH.  MOST OF THE\r\nREMAINING TRACK GUIDANCE IS SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nTHIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nEXPLICIT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMING A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE STATISTICAL\r\nSHIPS MODEL PEAKS OUT NEAR 75 KT IN THREE DAYS.  THIS IS ALL THE\r\nMORE REMARKABLE GIVEN THAT THE CURRENT SHIPS RUN IS BASED OFF THE\r\nMEDIUM BAM...WHICH REACHES COLDER WATER A DAY SOONER THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS/ECMWF LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nALL INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR\r\nAND THRIVE...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THAT UNANIMITY OF OPINION THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 10.1N  95.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 10.6N  96.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 11.3N  99.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 11.8N 102.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 14.0N 106.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED AND THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH. SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG SHEAR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION BUT STILL THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS A SLOW STRENGTHENING AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS CONTROLLING ELIDA'S MOTION\r\nIS ALSO STEERING THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST. SINCE THIS PATTERN\r\nIS FORECAST TO PERSIST...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS\r\nINDICATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 11.0N  96.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 11.3N  98.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 11.7N 101.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 12.3N 103.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 13.0N 105.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 108.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT EXPOSED AND ON THE NORTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES\r\nAND T-NUMBERS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN SET AT 35 KNOTS. WITH WARM WATERS BUT MODERATE SHEAR...A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. BY DAY 4...FAUSTO SHOULD BE\r\nNEARING COOLER WATERS AND INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE FAUSTO WAS IN FORMATIVE STAGE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...THIS FASTER MOTION\r\nCOULD BE PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE REFORMATION. FAUSTO IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE AROUND A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON A WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH INDEED IS\r\nCLUSTERED INDICATING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 11.3N  99.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 11.6N 101.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 13.5N 107.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 14.0N 108.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT IS BELIEVED TO BE NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BLOB.  A BLEND OF THE MOST\r\nRECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES 40 KT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN CENTER LOCATION I AM NOT\r\nESPECIALLY CONFIDENT IN THIS ASSESSMENT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nHAMPERING DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS\r\nCOULD REMAIN A FACTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nSPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS MOST\r\nAGGRESSIVE...BRINGING FAUSTO TO ABOUT 80 KT IN 3 DAYS...WHILE THE\r\nHWRF SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO STRENGTHENING AT ALL.    IN BETWEEN ARE THE\r\nLGEM AND GFDL MODELS...WITH WHICH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES ONLY 10 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE\r\nGFS ANALYSIS...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTICALLY LOW GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nCLOUD PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL SATELLITE WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 280/20.  IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHIS MORE RAPID MOTION MAY BE THE RESULT OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nROTATING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE...OR PERHAPS THERE IS A\r\nPROPAGATION COMPONENT TOWARD THE SHEARED CONVECTION.  IN EITHER\r\nEVENT...I DO NOT EXPECT THIS RAPID MOTION TO PERSIST.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nCALLS FOR FAUSTO TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE ECMWF IS AN INTERESTING OUTLIER...\r\nTHOUGH...TAKING FAUSTO ABOUT 300 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE OTHER\r\nMODELS BY 5 DAYS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE FORECAST\r\nAMPLIFICATION OF A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME\r\nWESTERN TEXAS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS\r\nFEATURE THEN PLAYS A ROLE IN BREAKING DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWEST OF BAJA IN ABOUT 3-4 DAYS.  THE EVOLUTION OVER THE COLD WATERS\r\nWEST OF BAJA IN PARTICULAR SEEMS UNREALISTIC...SO FOR THE\r\nMOMENT...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 11.8N 101.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 12.2N 104.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.9N 106.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 13.5N 108.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 13.9N 110.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS A\r\nWELL DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF\r\nTHE TWO SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE STRONG SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED\r\nAPPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. THEREFORE..THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.  AS A NOTE...THE HWRF MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO 116 KNOTS BY 84\r\nHOURS...AND THIS IS A BIG INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN WHICH\r\nBASICALLY WEAKENED THE CYCLONE.    \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nIS 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. FAUSTO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY.\r\nHOWEVER...FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES\r\nERODED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS IS THE PATTERN PROVIDED BY\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ONLY THE ECMWF IS OUTSIDE AND\r\nWELL-NORTH OF THE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 11.4N 103.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 11.8N 105.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N 108.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 13.0N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 13.5N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 16.0N 118.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO APPEARED EARLIER TO BE STRENGTHENING...BUT FIRST LIGHT\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS\r\nDIRECTLY INVOLVED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT SEEMED.  IN\r\nADDITION...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 45-50\r\nKT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT DESPITE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES OF 55 KT.  THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE\r\nSAME...HOWEVER...WITH A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12...AND A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENS A LITTLE.  ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES IN HEADING ARE\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE MODELS...AND THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 11.6N 104.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 12.3N 108.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 12.8N 109.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 13.3N 111.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 118.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO HAS EXHIBITING A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL APPEARANCE TODAY...WITH AN\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER RESIDING WITHIN A WIDE BAND OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AT LARGE RADIUS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE\r\n55 KT...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION VERY NEAR THE CENTER LEADS ME TO\r\nKEEP THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR NOW.  THE CYCLONE APPEARS POISED TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN...ALTHOUGH HOW FAST IT CAN DO THAT SEEMS TO DEPEND ON\r\nHOW LONG IT TAKES FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTER SO THE\r\nSYSTEM CAN CONSOLIDATE.  RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTS AT\r\nCONVECTION SLOWLY INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...SO STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS...AFTER WHICH TIME GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK OR\r\nABOUT 290/13.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE HEADING IS FORECAST\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...WITH ONLY A MODEST DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nWEAKENS SLIGHTLY.  GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 12.8N 105.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 13.4N 106.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 13.9N 108.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 14.4N 110.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 15.1N 112.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.5N 115.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 17 2008\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED TO ADD FORECASTER NAMES...\r\n \r\nA 2121Z AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATED THAT FAUSTO IS DEVELOPING A\r\nTIGHTLY COILED BANDING EYE FEATURE OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.\r\nADDITIONALLY...THE MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER RAIN BANDS ARE LOCATED\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 60\r\nKT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE\r\nGFDL...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSUPPORTED BY THE TWO PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 290/10...A LITTLE SLOWER.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nIS A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT FAUSTO'S DECREASE IN FORWARD MOTION MAY BE DUE TO A\r\nTRANSIENT MID LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nHAVE PICKED UP ON THIS FEATURE AND MOVE IT IN TANDEM WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTERWARD...THIS\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BECOMES\r\nFURTHER ENHANCED IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nAPPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  CONSEQUENTLY...THIS INITIAL\r\nREDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST RESIDES CLOSELY TO A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 13.0N 105.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 13.4N 107.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 13.9N 109.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 14.5N 110.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 15.1N 111.8W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 16.7N 115.4W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 20.0N 123.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN FAUSTO'S CLOUD PATTERN THIS EVENING...WITH AN\r\nINTENSE BANDING FEATURE RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...AT\r\n60 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM...THE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFDL...AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO REFLECT A TRANSIENT MID-\r\nLEVEL PERTURBATION OR VORTICITY MAXIMA PROPAGATING SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  THE MODELS THEN REVEAL THIS FEATURE MOVING WESTWARD\r\nIN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS AND\r\nWEAKENS BY DAY 4.  SUBSEQUENTLY...RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST U.S. IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nCREATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS DERIVED FROM A VARIABLE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII ADJUSTED BASED ON 0058Z QUIKSCAT.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 13.3N 106.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 13.7N 108.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 14.3N 109.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 14.9N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 15.7N 112.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.7N 116.6W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 20.5N 125.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nAN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...BUT A SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 1253Z THAT JUST CAME IN REVEALS\r\nABOUT HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z WERE A CONSENSUS 65 KT...AND\r\nCOMBINED WITH THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE PROVIDE ENOUGH EVIDENCE THAT\r\nFAUSTO HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...THE THIRD OF THE 2008 EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC SEASON.  CONDITIONS APPEAR RIPE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH NOT MUCH WIND SHEAR AND RATHER WARM SSTS ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNSURPRISING 285/11.  FEW CHANGES\r\nTO THE MOTION ARE INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFIVE-DAY PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY BUT\r\nTEMPORARILY IN A DAY OR TWO AS A LOW MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA...BUT\r\nTHE MODELS INDICATE IT WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED ON DAYS 3-5. \r\nTHERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE TRACKS...BUT THE\r\nCONSENSUS HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS MOSTLY A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 13.6N 108.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 14.0N 109.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 14.7N 110.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 15.7N 112.1W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 113.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 21.5N 127.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS EXHIBITING VERY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES...AND\r\nRECENTLY THE BEGINNINGS OF AN EYE HAVE BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...AND SO DOES THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY...BUT THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nNOT STRENGTHEN SOME.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST BY THE\r\nMODELS TO BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR...SO THE WARMTH OF THE WATERS\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER.  SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 28 CELSIUS\r\nAND WILL GRADUALLY COOL FROM THIS POINT FORWARD...BUT ONLY AT ABOUT\r\nONE DEGREE CELSIUS PER DAY...SO THE WATERS ARE WARM ENOUGH TO\r\nSUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL PEAKS AT 75 KT WHILE GFDL REACHES 84 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE.  STEADY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME ONCE FAUSTO\r\nPASSES OVER THE SST GRADIENT.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 290/9...AS FAUSTO HEADS TOWARD A SLOWLY DEVELOPING\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY BECOME\r\nREESTABLISHED IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...SO OVERALL ONLY SUBTLE CHANGES\r\nIN THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.  THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS...EXCEPT AT THE VERY END WHEN THEY\r\nDISAGREE ON IF OR WHEN FAUSTO WILL TURN WEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELIES ON THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT\r\nFORECAST A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...RATHER THAN A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT TURNS WEST\r\nSOONER AS SHOWN BY MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS.  THE NEW TRACK IS ALSO\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 14.1N 108.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 14.5N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 15.3N 110.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.2N 112.4W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 17.3N 114.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N 127.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 0004Z SSMIS OVERPASS DEPICT A SMALL\r\nBANDING EYE FEATURE BENEATH A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND A\r\nMORE INTENSE RAIN BAND WITH -80C COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE EAST\r\nQUADRANT. BASED ON AN IMPROVING CONVECTIVE INNER CORE AND A BLEND\r\nOF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 70 KT.  A WEAK WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS\r\nSHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WITH A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY FORECAST OF 85 KT...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND THE GFDL.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO TRAVERSE\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL ESTIMATED MOTION IS 290/8...WITHIN A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARD\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MID- LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER MEXICO WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF FAUSTO\r\nIN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD INCREASE\r\nA LITTLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH DAY 3...THEN IS NUDGED TOWARD THE GFDL AND THE HWRF WHICH\r\nINDICATE A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 14.3N 109.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 15.6N 111.3W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 113.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.8N 114.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 19.7N 119.1W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N 127.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO HAVE IMPROVED DURING THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS AND THERE IS INDICATION OF A BANDING EYE IN RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN AS LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT\r\nTO 90 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE.  FAUSTO HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE IT CROSSES THE 26\r\nDEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM.  SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO BE STRONG...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM. \r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS...FAUSTO WILL ENCOUNTER RAPIDLY FALLING SSTS ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SO BRISK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. \r\n \r\nFAUSTO APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN\r\nPLACE...AND TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE STEERING BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS FAUSTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE.\r\nTRACK MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO DIFFERENT \r\nDEPICTIONS OF FAUSTO'S STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH.  IT IS HARD TO\r\nIMAGINE FAUSTO MAINTAINING APPRECIABLE VERTICAL DEPTH DURING THIS\r\nTIME SINCE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS ALL OF WHICH HANG ON TO A\r\nRATHER DEEP SYSTEM.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 14.8N 109.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.3N 111.9W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 113.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 115.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 20.5N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 23.0N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nSLOWLY BUT SURELY...FAUSTO APPEARS TO BE STRENGTHENING.  AN EYE IS\r\nNOT APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...BUT CLOUD TOPS ARE QUITE\r\nCOLD RIGHT OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 12Z SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES...WHICH WERE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 90 KT FROM TAFB.  FAUSTO\r\nWILL REMAIN OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 27 CELSIUS FOR\r\nABOUT 12 MORE HOURS...SO A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME AS WATERS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...GRADUALLY THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS\r\nBUT THEN A MORE RAPID DECLINE AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE STRONG\r\nSST GRADIENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY GREATER\r\nPEAK INTENSITY AT 12 HOURS BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 305/7...NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN\r\nBEFORE...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST OFF THE\r\nWEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THAT HEADING IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO WILL PROBABLY\r\nSTART TO TURN LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACKS FROM THE GFDL AND HWRF THAN THE OTHER\r\nMODELS...SINCE THESE TWO MODELS LIKELY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC\r\nDEPICTION OF THE DEEP CIRCULATION.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO KEEP UP WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 15.2N 110.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 15.9N 111.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 112.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 18.1N 114.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 19.3N 116.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 22.5N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 24.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nWHILE IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE THAT FAUSTO COULD INTENSIFY AGAIN...IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT IT HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...A BIT EARLIER THAN\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTED. THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER TODAY HAVE WARMED\r\nCONSIDERABLY.  IN ADDITION...BANDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE CYCLONE HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF DVORAK-T\r\nAND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES. THERE IS A 6 TO 12 HOUR SMALL WINDOW\r\nOF OPPORTUNITY THAT FAUSTO COULD POSSIBLY STRENGTHEN...BUT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THAT SCENARIO AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING...THE 12 HOUR INTENSITY FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OF 75 KT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FIVE-DAY\r\nPERIOD...SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE SYSTEM'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/7...JUST A TAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST\r\nOFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO SHOULD\r\nPROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE\r\nRIGHT...CLOSE TO THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 15.5N 110.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.3N 111.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.4N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 24.0N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 19 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH A SMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING\r\nTHE BANDING EYE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED...AND SO IS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY...SUSTAINING AT 75 KT.  A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD OF\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nCOMMENCES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ICON\r\nCONSENSUS...INDICATING A GRADUAL DECLINE IN THE CYCLONE'S INTENSITY\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 5 DAY PERIOD.  THIS WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nPRIMARILY DUE TO DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A HINT OF\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AROUND DAY 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 310/10...WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A MID TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nJUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.  LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME FAUSTO\r\nSHOULD PROBABLY START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE RIDGE REESTABLISHING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS\r\nDERIVED FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 16.3N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.1N 112.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 18.3N 114.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 20.6N 118.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 22.1N 122.3W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 23.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 24.5N 129.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 75 KT IN\r\nLINE WITH THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\nHAVING SAID THAT...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ENCOUNTERING RAPIDLY FALLING\r\nSSTS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE SOON.  IN FACT...WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BE BRISK WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN A\r\nMERE 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW NEARLY AS FAST A\r\nWEAKENING RATE AS SHIPS...BUT DOES INDICATE FAUSTO BECOMING A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 72 HOURS AND DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/10...TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. \r\nA TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE\r\nPROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TO BE IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE A\r\nBETTER HANDLE ON THE RAPID WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.2N 111.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 18.1N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.3N 117.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N 119.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 22.0N 123.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 22.5N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE THIS MORNING.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS CAME IN AT A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND\r\nTHUS 75 KT REMAINS THE INTENSITY.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE\r\n12 UTC HAVE DEPICTED A MORE WELL-DEFINED EYE...SO THIS ANALYSIS\r\nMIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK OF FAUSTO IS 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AS THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND A RATHER SHARP TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS\r\nMOTION HAS NOT BEEN WELL-DEPICTED BY THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nLATELY...WHICH HAVE BEEN CALLING PREMATURELY FOR A TURN BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN SPINNING DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE AT ABOUT FAUSTO'S LONGITUDE.  THUS THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW AT THAT TIME.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE HWRF...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TOO\r\nFAR NORTH INTO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER AND TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWEST...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND SIMILAR AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS OVER WATERS OF ONLY 26C CURRENTLY EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW.  OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY COOL MAKING THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS QUITE HOSTILE...WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD STAY\r\nCONDUCIVE.  A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS\r\nAND BY DAY 4 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS AND IS\r\nQUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 18.0N 112.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.2N 114.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.3N 116.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 118.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N 120.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO CONTINUES DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE BOTH IN THE INFRARED AND\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN STEADY AT A 4.5 AT 18Z.  HOWEVER...ADT SUGGESTS A\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER CYCLONE WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER\r\nABOUT ONE HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES.  AN EARLIER AMSU\r\nOVERPASS ANALYZED FAUSTO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 82 AND 87 KT FROM\r\nTHE CIMSS AND CIRA METHODS...RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS A\r\nBLEND OF THESE VALUES AT 80 KT.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON\r\nSOCORRO ISLAND...THOUGH THESE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THE\r\nSTATION IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 35 M.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A HEADING OF 310\r\nDEGREES AT 11 KT...THOUGH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE LEFT IS IMPLIED BY\r\nTHE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES.  FAUSTO'S TRACK IS BEING DETERMINED\r\nBY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nPOSSIBLY INFLUENCED AS WELL BY THE DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST\r\nOFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA.  AS FAUSTO BEGINS TO DECAY IN ABOUT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS...IT SHOULD INCREASINGLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nOFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE UKMET...GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO\r\nTHE FORECAST ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS LIKELY TO BEGIN A RATHER QUICK DECAY AS IT WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE\r\nNEXT THREE DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE\r\nLGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE AT DAY 4 OR 5.\r\n \r\nA 1250Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 18.7N 113.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.7N 114.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.7N 117.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.2N 119.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 121.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008\r\n\r\nLATEST VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FAUSTO CONTINUES\r\nTO MAINTAIN ITS PRESENT INTENSITY.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT A CONSENSUS T4.5 AND A PREVIOUS UW-CIMSS AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS KEEPING FAUSTO AS AN 80 KNOT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER\r\nMUCH COOLER SSTS THAT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING THE SYSTEM. ALL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FAUSTO WILL WEAKEN OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AND IT WILL DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE\r\nEXTENDED PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOVEMENT OF FAUSTO IS 310/11. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nAND THE U.S. SOUTHWEST. MOST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nFAUSTO WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AND EVENTUALLY MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER ON IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MAINLY\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nREMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THIS GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 19.5N 114.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.3N 116.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 21.2N 117.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.3N 121.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 23.7N 125.1W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 25.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IT APPEARED THAT FAUSTO HAD REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nYESTERDAY...THE EYE BECAME MORE DEFINED AGAIN ON INFRARED IMAGES\r\nAND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT\r\nA CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 85 KT. IN SPITE OF THE MARGINAL...24C OCEAN\r\nTEMPERATURES...FAUSTO HAS APPARENTLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW-\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CAN\r\nSTRENGTHEN ANY MORE GIVEN THE MORE DOMINATING INFLUENCE OF COOLER\r\nWATERS... AND THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WHICH SHOWS WEAKENING. FAUSTO WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATING\r\nIN AROUND 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD...305/11.  DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A SLIGHT BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF AN\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS\r\nALSO THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 20.1N 115.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.8N 117.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 21.6N 119.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.3N 121.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 22.8N 122.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 26.5N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fausto","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FAUSTO'S MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DECOUPLED\r\nFROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  WHILE GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SUGGESTED A CONTINUED TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nOVERNIGHT...MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AMSR AND AMSU INSTEAD SHOW THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SUBSTANTIALLY SOUTHWEST OF THE 06Z AND 12Z\r\nGEOSTATIONARY-BASED POSITION ESTIMATES.  THIS DECOUPLING ALSO\r\nINDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU\r\nPASS AT 0936Z GAVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS OF 67\r\nKT...WHICH IS SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER THAN EARLIER AMSU ANALYSES.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KT...BUT THIS MAY BE\r\nSLIGHTLY ON THE HIGH SIDE.\r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS SITUATED SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nAND SOUTHEAST OF A VIGOROUS CUTOFF LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  GIVEN\r\nTHE DECOUPLING OF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS THAT APPEARS\r\nTO BE OCCURRING...FAUSTO SHOULD NO LONGER FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nMID AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES AND INSTEAD BE INCREASINGLY ADVECTED\r\nALONG BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE DECOUPLING MAY BE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF INCREASINGLY HOSTILE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS AND MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS FAUSTO SHOULD MOVE OVER EVEN\r\nCOLDER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...SHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL\r\nMODELS...BUT IS SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 20.4N 116.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.1N 118.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.8N 120.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 22.2N 122.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 22.6N 123.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 23.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL AS THE CLOUD SIGNATURE IN THE VISIBLE\r\nAND INFRARED IMAGES IS DETERIORATING.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW THAT THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  TAKING A BLEND OF THE 18Z T AND CI DVORAK\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB SUGGESTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 70 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...AN AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 65 TO 70 KT BACK AT 1232Z\r\nWHEN THE CYCLONE APPEARED MORE INTACT.  ADDITIONALLY...QUIKSCAT\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM A 1406Z OVERPASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT\r\n60 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.\r\n \r\nFAUSTO'S MOTION IS ABOUT 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nBE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST\r\nOVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS FAUSTO DECAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFS...AND GFDL\r\nMODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS STRAIGHTFORWARD AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RATHER COLD WATERS AND A\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL...HRWF...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE 1406Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE ANALYZED GALE FORCE\r\nAND 50 KT WIND RADII.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 20.6N 118.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 21.3N 119.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 21.8N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 22.1N 123.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 22.4N 124.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nDESPITE BEING OVER 23.5 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS...FAUSTO IS HOLDING ITS\r\nOWN...FOR NOW.  LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NEW BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS TREND...THE\r\nINITIAL ADVISORY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVE COOLER WATERS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME\r\nLATER TONIGHT.  IN FACT...FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...IT WILL\r\nBECOME A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nTHIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 21.2N 118.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.6N 120.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.9N 122.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 22.4N 123.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 22.8N 125.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 23.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FAUSTO HAS DISSIPATED\r\nDURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND FAUSTO HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS BUT THIS\r\nCOULD BE A BIT GENEROUS GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION.  NOW\r\nOVER COLD WATER AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF REGENERATING SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OF FAUSTO IS EXPECTED.  IT\r\nWOULD APPEAR THAT THE CYCLONE IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW\r\nSTATUS. \r\n \r\nA COUPLE OF NICE MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS DECOUPLED FROM AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nTRACKED MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n280/10 AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS OR UNTIL DISSIPATION.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 20.7N 119.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 21.0N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 21.5N 122.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 22.4N 126.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVER THE COOL WATERS OF THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE SINCE ABOUT 07Z OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES...WOULD STILL SUGGEST ABOUT A\r\n40 TO 50 KT TROPICAL STORM.  A 0925Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF\r\n43 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.  GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION\r\nSINCE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT...THOUGH THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION IS NOT CERTAIN WITH NO MICROWAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT. \r\nFAUSTO WILL BE ADVECTED ALONG TOWARD WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS IT DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nAS FAUSTO'S TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE IT OVER COOL WATERS AND\r\nSTABLE...DRY AIR...THERE MAY NOT BE ANY CONVECTION RE-OCCURRING IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  IF SO...FAUSTO SHOULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 24\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 20.9N 120.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 21.3N 122.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 21.9N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N 125.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 22.9N 127.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fausto","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP072008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nFAUSTO IS NO MORE-O.  THE CYCLONE HAS GONE WITHOUT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND THUS NO LONGER MEETS THE\r\nDEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1340Z DID\r\nPROVIDE A FEW RELIABLE 35 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT\r\nTHE INTENSITY HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN AND IS CURRENTLY\r\nANALYZED AT 30 KT.  \r\n\r\nFAUSTO IS MOVING AT 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  A TRACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT THE SAME SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS AS THE LARGE CYCLONE SLOWLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOL\r\nWATERS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 21.9N 121.6W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 22.3N 123.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 22.7N 124.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 23.2N 126.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.4N 128.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nTHE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN WATCHING FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS HAS FINALLY OBTAINED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THIS SAME SYSTEM\r\nALMOST BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA A FEW DAYS AGO.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF BANDED DEEP CONVECTION FEATURES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 30 KT IN LINE WITH QUIKSCAT ESTIMATES.  A SLOW\r\nINCREASE IN WINDS IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THEREAFTER AND HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER THE COOLER WATERS IN 4 DAYS OR SO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\nHWRF/GFDL DO NOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM ON THEIR CURRENT INTEGRATION\r\nBUT HAVE INTENSIFIED IT QUITE A BIT BEFOREHAND.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12.  A WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER MEXICO.  FOR THE FIRST ADVISORY...\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD SLOW A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE COULD AFFECT THE DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES\r\nJUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 13.4N 100.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 13.6N 102.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.9N 104.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 14.4N 107.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 14.9N 108.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 15.7N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 16.6N 114.2W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  AN ASCAT MICROWAVE PASS AT\r\n1604 UTC SHOWED 30-35 KT WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5...35\r\nKT.  THUS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nGENEVIEVE AND AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT WILL BE USED.  MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW VERY LIGHT\r\nSHEAR...AND WITH WATERS THAT ARE PLENTY WARM IN THE PATH OF THE\r\nSTORM...THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...OR\r\nSOONER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODELS AND IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING AT ABOUT 280/15 FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STORM SHOULD SLOW DOWN\r\nRELATIVELY SOON...PERHAPS DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING A LITTLE DUE\r\nTO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MEXICO.  THAT TROUGH DOESN'T\r\nLOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES...SO I'M GOING TO KEEP\r\nTHE STORM ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS SPEEDY AS\r\nTHE GFS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 13.9N 102.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.1N 104.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.5N 106.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 14.9N 108.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 15.4N 110.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 21 2008\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE\r\nOF GENEVIEVE WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE ANALYZED SURFACE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN A CONSENSUS T2.5 SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AT 285/16 FOR THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE LIES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...BUT THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE U.S. ROCKIES RESULTING\r\nIN A DECREASE OF THE STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH 5\r\nDAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND CANADIAN WHICH SHOW A SOUTHWARD BEND\r\nIN 1-2 DAYS AND THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS GENEVIEVE TO A SLOW CREEP. BY\r\nDISCOUNTING THE SOUTHERN GFS SOLUTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL MODELS AND\r\nPERHAPS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY\r\n12-24 HOURS. ONE WOULD THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nFAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING...BUT STRANGELY...ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL IS\r\nVERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING GENEVIEVE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SHOW SSTS AS COLD AS 23C IN A COLD WAKE GENERATED BY\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO AHEAD OF GENEVIEVE...AND IT DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nTHAT THE WEEKLY REYNOLDS SSTS INGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL HAVE\r\nACCOUNTED FOR THIS FEATURE. FOR THAT REASON THE FORECAST INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS BELOW SHIPS GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF THE SLOW AND GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING ANTICIPATED BY THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 14.3N 104.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.7N 105.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.1N 107.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.6N 109.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 113.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N 116.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nA 0054 UTC QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED A FEW PLAUSIBLE...\r\nALBEIT RAIN-FLAGGED WIND VECTORS AS HIGH AS 40 KT NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0 SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE WAS MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH\r\nIT NOW APPEARS IT MAY BE STARTING TO SLOW DOWN WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 285/13. THE DECREASE IN SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST\r\nMEXICO SHIFTS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING\r\nGREATER SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY AT THE DAY 3-5 PERIODS ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE IS A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWARD SHIFT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST CYCLES. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD BUT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLUSTER OF\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE IS VERY NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD WAKE GENERATED\r\nBY TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO AND WILL REMAIN OVER THIS FEATURE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. SHIPS IS STILL THE ONLY MODEL THAT\r\nSTRENGTHENS GENEVIEVE TO A HURRICANE...BUT SINCE IT DOES NOT\r\nRECOGNIZE THE COLD WAKE...IT MAY BE RELYING ON SST DATA THAT IS UP\r\nTO 5C TOO WARM. THEREFORE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE\r\nCYCLONE JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BY ASSUMING THE STORM WILL\r\nHAVE A DIFFICULT TIME STRENGTHENING MUCH OVER THE COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHIS IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER INTENSITY MODELS...SOME\r\nOF WHICH BARELY GIVE GENEVIEVE A FIGHTING CHANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 14.6N 105.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.0N 106.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.4N 108.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 15.8N 110.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 112.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 117.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE'S DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPROVED SOME IN ORGANIZATION\r\nOVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE HARD EDGE TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS IN THE\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY IS INDICATIVE OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nIMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE GONE UP TO\r\n3.5 FROM TAFB AND STEADY AT 3.0 FROM SAB. A 1205Z AMSU PASS\r\nINDICATED 51 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT.\r\n\r\nA 1143Z SSMI PASS DID SHOW A DISTINCT CURVED BAND IN THE 37V\r\nIMAGERY...WHICH HELPED TO LOCATE THE CYCLONE'S POSITION.\r\nGENEVIEVE'S TRACK IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. WITH THE CYCLONE WELL\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...GENEVIEVE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD. THE TRACK MODELS\r\nARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASED UPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND UKMET\r\nMODELS. THIS NEW TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS.  BECAUSE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTHWARD...THE CYCLONE MAY MISS MOST OF THE WATERS COOLED BY ELIDA\r\nAND FAUSTO.  CONSEQUENTLY...INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IS NOW\r\nEXPECTED.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SHEAR MAY INCREASE AGAIN AS THE\r\nSSTS GRADUALLY COOL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 14.7N 106.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.9N 108.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 110.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.1N 112.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N 113.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 117.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 119.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 123.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE HAS NOT IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION APPRECIABLY OVER THE LAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT\r\nCHANGED AND THE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS AROUND 50 KT.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nA 1437Z SSMIS PASS AND THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE POSITION INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MAY HAVE BEEN\r\nSOMEWHAT TOO FAR TO THE NORTH.  THE CURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLIES\r\nSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE TAKES GENEVIEVE DUE WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...\r\nUKMET...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS MODELS AND IT IS FASTER THAN...AND SOUTH\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE IS STILL BEING ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY MODERATE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE\r\nDURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS\r\nAND SURROUNDED BY ABUNDANT MOISTURE.  AT DAYS 3 TO 5...THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD INCREASE AGAIN WHILE THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY COOL\r\nUNDER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 14.3N 107.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.4N 108.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.4N 110.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N 112.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 14.1N 113.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.0N 116.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 119.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 22 2008\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON\r\nUNANIMOUS SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. \r\nMULTIPLE FACTORS COMPLICATE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  ON ONE\r\nHAND...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS AND ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING.\r\nHOWEVER...SATELLITE BASED SST ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nIS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER A COLD WAKE GENERATED BY FAUSTO. WHILE THE\r\nPOCKET OF COOLER WATER IS NOT THAT LARGE...IT COULD SLOW OR EVEN\r\nSTOP DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 24 HOURS...GENEVIEVE\r\nSHOULD BE BACK OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS WHERE IT WILL HAVE\r\nABOUT A 48 HOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN.\r\nIN LIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD WAKE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  WHILE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL NOSE WESTWARD INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC...THEY DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.\r\nADDITIONALLY...THE VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER IN THEIR FORECASTS OF THE\r\nSTRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THOSE MODEL DEPICTING A WEAK\r\nSYSTEM MOVE IT SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE THOSE MODELS WHICH DEPICT A\r\nSTRONG SYSTEM TURN THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nALL THIS RESULTS IN A HUGE DIVERGENCE OF THE TRACK MODELS BEYOND A\r\nDAY OR SO.  IN FACT...THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE SPANS APPROXIMATELY\r\n1000 MILES AT DAY 5.  GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS A DUE WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THIS\r\nRESULTS IN A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST BUT IT STILL LIES SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 14.3N 108.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.4N 109.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.4N 111.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.4N 112.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 14.4N 114.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 14.4N 117.2W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 14.5N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 123.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SHAPELESS MASS OF\r\nVERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  SUCH A\r\nPATTERN NORMALLY SIGNALS AN INTERRUPTION IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nCHALLENGING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BUT GENEVIEVE IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING OVER A SMALL AREA OF RELATIVELY COOLER SSTS LEFT\r\nIN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO.  THESE TWO ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD\r\nOFFSET EACH OTHER RESULTING IN SLOW OR POSSIBLY NO DEVELOPMENT\r\nDURING THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE\r\nBACK OVER WARMER WATERS ALLOWING ABOUT A TWO-DAY WINDOW FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF HIGHER VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT\r\n3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL MODEL.\r\n \r\nA RECENT AMSU PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. HOWEVER...I AM RELUCTANT TO\r\nCOMPLETELY RELOCATE THE CENTER AT NIGHT AND HAVE OPTED TO SPLIT THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE EXTRAPOLATED CENTER POSITION AND THE AMSU\r\nCENTER ESTIMATE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 280/08.\r\nTRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VASTLY DIFFERENT FORECASTS RANGING\r\nFROM A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THOSE MODELS\r\nWHICH SHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION ALSO FORECAST A SHALLOW SYSTEM. \r\nSINCE THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT GENEVIEVE WILL SUDDENLY\r\nWEAKEN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE REMAINING\r\nMODELS AND INDICATES A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS RESULTS IN A\r\nNORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL LIES\r\nSOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3-5. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 14.7N 108.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.8N 109.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.9N 111.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.0N 112.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 15.1N 114.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 15.5N 117.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 121.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nA 0853Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER OF\r\nGENEVIEVE WAS BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL IRREGULAR\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  A COLD TOP BANDING FEATURE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS PERSISTING WHILE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION IS LIMITED...INDICATIVE OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DERIVED FROM THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS WHICH SUGGESTS STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN\r\n24 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nA FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES WERE QUITE HELPFUL THIS MORNING IN\r\nESTIMATING THE MOTION...NOW DUE WEST AT 8 KT...WITH A SLIGHT\r\nPOSITION ADJUSTMENT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A\r\nMAJORITY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT GENEVIEVE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY MOVE MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES JUST TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 15.0N 109.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.1N 110.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.2N 112.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.3N 113.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 115.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GENEVIEVE HAS BEEN\r\nSTRUGGLING SOME TODAY.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nERODING...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR UNDERCUTTING\r\nTHE DIFFLUENT EASTERLIES ALOFT.  ADDITIONALLY...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN\r\nTRAVERSING OVER A WAKE OF LESS THAN 25C ANOMALOUSLY COOL SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES CREATED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ALSO SUPPORT A WEAKENING...THEREFORE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWER TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS WHICH\r\nSHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT...INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. \r\nIT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS SUGGESTS THAT GENEVIEVE BASICALLY\r\nMAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE\r\nCOMMENCING A WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8...WITHIN THE MID-LAYER EASTERLY\r\nFLOW OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  NO SIGNIFICANT TRACK CHANGES FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH GENEVIEVE GRADUALLY MOVING MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH TIME TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS USED AS A\r\nBASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 15.0N 110.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.1N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.3N 112.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 114.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 15.8N 115.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 23 2008\r\n \r\nLATEST CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT GENEVIEVE IS\r\nSTRUGGLING.  HOWEVER...DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AND THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  GENEVIEVE HAS CROSSED THE\r\nCOOLER WATERS LEFT IN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER\r\nWARMER SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY...VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED.  THESE\r\nTRENDS SUGGEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRIOR TO\r\nSHEAR INCREASING IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE VARIOUS\r\nINTENSITY MODELS PROVIDE DIFFERING FORECASTS RANGING FROM LITTLE OR\r\nNO STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS...TO THE DYNAMICAL HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW\r\nGENEVIEVE REACHING 71 KT AND 82 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  SINCE IT IS NOT\r\nCLEAR WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS IS MORE LIKELY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND SHOWS GENEVIEVE BECOMING A\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND GENEVIEVE MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...270/9.  A\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GENEVIEVE SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MUCH\r\nOF THE FORECAST.  TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 15.0N 111.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N 112.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.3N 113.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 115.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 15.9N 117.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N 120.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N 127.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2008\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A SOMEWHAT REMOVED BAND TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE COLD WAKE LEFT BY FAUSTO HAS\r\nTAKEN ITS TOLL ON GENEVIEVE...FOR NOW.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT GENEVIEVE HAS\r\nWEAKENED TO 45 KT.  GENEVIEVE IS GRADUALLY MOVING OVER WARMER SSTS\r\nAND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  ACCORDINGLY...SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM.  EVEN THOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES\r\nINCLUDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATE A 30% CHANCE OF\r\nGENEVIEVE BEING A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT\r\nWEAKENING FOR GOOD.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT.  WITH A MIDDLE TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST.  TRACK MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 15.1N 112.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.2N 113.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 15.8N 116.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 16.2N 118.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 24 2008\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE...SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...IS CONTINUING TO STRUGGLE OVER\r\nTHE OPEN NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  DEEP CONVECTION COVERS ONLY A SMALL\r\nREGION OVER THE CYCLONE AND REMAINS ASYMMETRIC IN ITS DISTRIBUTION. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED\r\nSLIGHTLY...BUT STILL INDICATE A CURRENT INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT. \r\nA 0905Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED WINDS OF 48 KT FROM THE CIMSS\r\nTECHNIQUE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE IS MOVING AT 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT...BASED UPON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE 12Z DVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES AND A 0936Z AMSR MICROWAVE PASS. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC.  THE CYCLONE IS OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS\r\nENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF\r\nGENEVIEVE.  MOREOVER...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED PAST\r\nTHE REGION OF OCEAN COOLING INDUCED BY HURRICANE FAUSTO.  IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED IN AGREEMENT PRIMARILY\r\nWITH THE GFDL MODEL.  FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE\r\nTO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED\r\nBASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY HAS A PEAK SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nPREDICTED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 15.3N 112.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.4N 114.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N 115.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 15.9N 117.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 16.4N 119.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION TODAY...THOUGH THE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS COVER A SMALL AREA AND ARE ASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED. \r\nWHILE DVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED FROM TAFB AND SAB...A\r\n1553Z SSMIS PASS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE MAY\r\nBE FORMING.  AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM A 1258Z PASS WERE ABOUT\r\n50 KT FROM THE CIMSS AND CIRA TECHNIQUES.  AN ASCAT PASS AT 1642Z\r\nDID NOT SHOW ANY GALE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THIS INSTRUMENT MAY HAVE\r\nPROBLEMS IN DISCERNING STRONG WINDS WITH A SMALL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE HAS SLOWED DOWN TO 6 KT AT A 280 DEGREES HEADING.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CORRECTED CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...MINUS THE GFS AT THE EXTENDED RANGE.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE LIKELY HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN THE NEXT DAY\r\nTO FURTHER STRENTHEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND SIGNIFICANT\r\nUPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE CLOSED UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  BEGINNING IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS...GENEVIEVE SHOULD BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED BY COOLER\r\nWATERS...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nWHILE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO ABOVE 55 KT...THERE IS A 20%\r\nCHANCE OF GENEVIEVE BECOMING A HURRICANE BASED UPON OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ERROR STATISTICS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 15.4N 112.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 114.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.7N 115.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.1N 117.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 16.7N 119.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2008\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nASYMMETRICALLY DISTRIBUTED...AS MOST OF THE COLDEST-TOPPED CLOUDS\r\nARE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. \r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  CONCURRENT 85 GHZ AND 37 GHZ SSM/I\r\nIMAGES FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOME\r\nNORTHWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT...SUGGESTING\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES 10 KT OR LESS\r\nOF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  PERHAPS\r\nTHE GFS...WHICH PROVIDES THE DYNAMICAL INPUT FOR SHIPS... IS\r\nUNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLIES OVER\r\nTHE STORM.  NOTWITHSTANDING...THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT FORECAST\r\nMUCH INCREASE IN STRENGTH...NOR DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN 36\r\nHOURS OR SO...GENEVIEVE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN\r\nINCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WESTWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT TOO\r\nDIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 15.8N 113.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.0N 115.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.3N 116.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 16.7N 118.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 17.1N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 18.5N 128.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 18.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS AT TIMES BEEN A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC\r\nRECENTLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON\r\nTHE RISE IN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM\r\nSSMIS BACK AT 03Z SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE IS STILL A BIT TILTED IN THE\r\nVERTICAL...BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS SO THAN EARLIER.  THE\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH GENEVIEVE ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 26.5\r\nCELSIUS AND WILL DECREASE ONLY SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nMEANWHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR APPEARS TO BE MODEST OUT OF THE\r\nSOUTHEAST...WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AS A RESULT A TEMPORARY\r\nSTRENGTHENING TREND IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM BY NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL FLIRTING\r\nWITH HURRICANE STATUS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT 60\r\nKT IN 24 HOURS.  IT CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GENEVIEVE\r\nCOULD BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...BUT NOT LIKELY THEREAFTER.  COOLER\r\nWATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THAT TIME SHOULD INDUCE\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DEGENERATES OVER SSTS LESS THAN\r\n24 CELSIUS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nNOTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY ABOUT GENEVIEVE'S MOTION OF\r\n285/8...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EVEN MORE TYPICAL 285/11 OR\r\nSO BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AS THE CYCLONE SPEEDS UP A LITTLE WITHIN\r\nDEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  NOT UNTIL\r\nTHE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS WILL THE HEADING CHANGE...TO A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nJUST SLIGHTLY TO THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF SIDE...OR TO THE NORTH OF...THE\r\nCONSENSUS...WHICH ALSO REPRESENTS A SMALL NORTHWARD SHIFT COMPARED\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 16.0N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.4N 116.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 118.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.2N 122.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008\r\n\r\nA 1130 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nGENEVIEVE IS NOW BENEATH THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER AND THAT A BANDED\r\nEYE HAD FORMED.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 4.0...65\r\nKT...FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THUS GENEVIEVE IS UPGRADED TO A\r\nHURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS...THE FOURTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON.  THIS FORMATION IS ABOUT TWO WEEKS AHEAD OF THE\r\nMEAN FOURTH HURRICANE DATE OF 10 AUGUST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...\r\nAND 2008 ALREADY HAS HAD AS MANY HURRICANES AS THE ENTIRE 2007\r\nSEASON.\r\n\r\nIT IS PROBABLE THAT GENEVIEVE WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY TODAY AS IT IS\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT WIND SHEAR AND WARM WATER.  HOWEVER...\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY\r\nTOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM THE EAST.  THESE CLOUDS HERALD AN\r\nINCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND SHEAR STARTING TOMORROW FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  IN COMBINATION WITH DECREASING SSTS...THESE EFFECTS SHOULD\r\nCAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING OF GENEVIEVE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT CHANGES...\r\nAND THEN IS BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OF GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE ACCELERATED AND IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED AT 285/10.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT ABOUT 11 KT IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RIDES\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. \r\nA TOWARD TOWARDS THE WEST IS PROBABLE AROUND THREE DAYS DUE TO THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION AND STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES ONLY A SMALL\r\nNORTHWARD CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 16.4N 115.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.8N 117.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N 119.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N 121.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.8N 123.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008\r\n\r\nHINTS OF AN EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...NEAR THE MIDDLE OF A FAIRLY ROUND BUT SMALL CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. \r\nTHE SYSTEM PROBABLY HAS LESS THAN A DAY TO INTENSIFY DUE TO THE\r\nEFFECTS OF COOLING SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR.  GENEVIEVE IS LIKELY\r\nTO LOSE CONVECTION RELATIVELY QUICKLY IN ABOUT THREE TO FOUR DAYS\r\nWHEN THE VERY SMALL SYSTEM WILL BE OVER COLD WATERS AND EXPERIENCING\r\nMODERATE SHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS BEFORE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE HAS BEEN MOVING AT A RATHER CLIMATOLOGICAL 285/11. THIS\r\nGENERAL HEADING AND SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nDUE TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF SHOW A BIT LESS RIDGING THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND ARE\r\nNORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. A WESTWARD TRACK IS PROBABLE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CIRCULATION AND IS STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS VERY SMALL AND THE WIND RADII\r\nHAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 16.8N 116.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.2N 118.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.4N 122.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 125.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.0N 129.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 20.0N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2008\r\n \r\nAN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 2111Z HELPS PLACE THE CENTER OF\r\nGENEVIEVE PRETTY MUCH IN THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nALTHOUGH TO MY EYE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER...AS IT HAS BEEN AT TIMES.  NO EYE IS\r\nAPPARENT IN EITHER VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY...SUGGESTING NO\r\nIMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT IS NEAR 60\r\nKT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 65.  TONIGHT IS LIKELY THE LAST\r\nCHANCE FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND SOME MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...SUGGESTS STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WILL SOON\r\nOVERTAKE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SSTS WILL BEGIN TO FALL SHARPLY\r\nIN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS A SHIPS/LGEM\r\nBLEND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF GENEVIEVE AND AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE LATTER FEATURE IS\r\nLIFTING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW\r\nGENEVIEVE TO MAINTAIN A TRACK JUST NORTH OF WEST UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nDECAYS INTO A SHALLOW VORTEX IN THREE DAYS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A SHADE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE\r\nHWRF AND GFDL ARE THE NORTHERN OUTLIERS...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMARK THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 16.9N 118.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.3N 119.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.8N 122.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 124.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 18.6N 126.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 19.3N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 0230Z RETRIEVED WINDS OF 55-60 KT TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...BUT DUE TO RESOLUTION\r\nLIMITATIONS OF THE INSTRUMENT THESE WERE LIKELY UNDERESTIMATES...\r\nAND GENEVIEVE WAS PROBABLY STILL A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE\r\nTHEN...HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDROPPED...SO GENEVIEVE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  BLENDING THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KT. GENEVIEVE IS HEADED TOWARD\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A LITTLE\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...SO THE CYCLONE MIGHT HAVE JUST\r\nGONE OVER THE BRINK INTO A PERMANENT WEAKENING TREND. ALL OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE GUIDANCE SAYS SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST OF DECAY\r\nFOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE\r\nOF DECLINE THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT\r\n280/11...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. THE TRACK INVOLVES A SUBTLE TURN TO THE LEFT AT THE\r\nLATITUDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW\r\nSHOULD TURN DUE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN A FEW DAYS. THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF TRACKS STILL TURN LEFT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 17.1N 119.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 120.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 17.9N 122.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.4N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 18.9N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 19.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 19.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY\r\nDETERIORATING. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WITHIN A CURVED\r\nBAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND SO DOES\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WHICH IS NOW 50 KNOTS. GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WEAKENING\r\nTREND IS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD STEERING FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER 48 HOURS...GENEVIEVE IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nWEAKER AND SHOULD MORE TOWARD THE WEST STEERED BY TE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 17.4N 120.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.0N 128.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 19.6N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 19.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WHILE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE MID-\r\nAND LOW- LEVEL CENTER ARE BECOMING DECOUPLED. EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nINDICATE THAT WINDS WERE 45 KNOTS AND SO DOES THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45\r\nKNOTS. A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR.\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED AND GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 48 HOURS. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A WESTWARD\r\nSTEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BEYOND 48 HOURS GUIDANCE IS IN LESS\r\nAGREEMENT BUT BY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW MOVING\r\nWESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 17.3N 121.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2008\r\n \r\nALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GENEVIEVE HAS DISSIPATED\r\nDURING THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THE CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF A SWIRL\r\nOF LOW CLOUDS BENEATH MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THIS TREND.  WITH\r\nCOOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND GENEVIEVE COULD BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW TOMORROW.  THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE\r\nGENEVIEVE IN 2-3 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PROVIDES POINTS OUT\r\nTO DAY 4. \r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS\r\nTURNED TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 11 KNOTS.  SOON TO\r\nBE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...GENEVIEVE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 16.9N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 124.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 17.2N 126.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 17.4N 128.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 17.6N 129.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 18.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2008\r\n \r\nGENEVIEVE IS JUST ABOUT DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...SINCE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR MORE THAN EIGHT HOURS...IT\r\nREALLY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS ONE NOW...BUT IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REFIRES THIS MORNING...ADVISORIES WILL BE\r\nCONTINUED A LITTLE LONGER.  QUIKSCAT AT 02Z RETRIEVED 30-35 KT\r\nWINDS...AND WITH THE CYCLONE IN THE SPIN-DOWN CYCLE...THERE ARE\r\nPROBABLY NO MORE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE NOW.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE\r\n06Z DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME\r\nMORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION EXPENDS\r\nENERGY OVER COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS HEADED DUE WESTWARD OR\r\n270/10...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OR HEADING IS EXPECTED\r\nAS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES ALONG IN THE EASTERLY TRADES.  A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE DAYS...SO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST EXTENDS OUT TO 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 16.8N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.9N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 17.2N 127.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 17.5N 128.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.7N 130.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 18.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2008\r\n\r\nGENEVIEVE HAS BEEN WITHOUT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE\r\nLATE YESTERDAY AND NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT AND A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER COOL WATERS.   \r\n\r\nTHE SKELETAL REMAINS OF GENEVIEVE ARE HEADED WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11\r\nKT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OR HEADING IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nREMNANT LOW MOVES ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  NONE OF THE\r\nMODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM BY 48 HR...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW AT\r\nTHAT TIME. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 17.0N 124.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N 126.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 17.3N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 17.6N 130.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO HAS STEADILY BEEN GAINING ORGANIZATION TODAY...WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T2.0...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS OF 30 KT.\r\n\r\nAS IS USUALLY THE CASE FOR EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES...THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION IS BEING DICTATED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY DEPICTS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE WEST COAST TROUGH TO LIFT OUT AND\r\nALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD A LITTLE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC...KEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS\r\nIN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM AND TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT\r\n28 CELSIUS...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...FOLLOWED BY STEADILY COOLER\r\nWATERS.  MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE\r\nCYCLONE...BUT MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO WEAKEN A LITTLE AND\r\nREMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  AS A RESULT\r\nOF THESE CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY TYPICAL RISE AND FALL IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FOR AN EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONE IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK CLOSE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A RAPID DECLINE OVER COOL WATERS...IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 12.9N 111.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 13.6N 113.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.5N 116.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.2N 118.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.0N 120.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 124.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 18.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY\r\nIMPROVED THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB ARE T2.5 OR 35 KT...WHICH SUPPORTS AN UPGRADE TO \r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HERNAN BECOMES THE EIGHTH NAMED STORM TO\r\nFORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS YEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER\r\nESTIMATES. THIS RESULTS IN A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 295/12. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nAS HERNAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD\r\nOFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE HERNAN TO SLOW DOWN IN THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON HERNAN'S HEADING...BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS BEFORE. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE CORRECTED\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING HERNAN WILL\r\nRELAX IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HERNAN\r\nREMAINS OVER WARM WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE CLOSELY WHICH CALLS FOR HERNAN TO REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 13.8N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 14.5N 114.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 15.2N 116.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 15.8N 118.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.4N 119.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N 123.2W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2008\r\n \r\nHERNAN'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION.  THE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nEDGE OF A NEAR-CENTRAL REGION OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...AND \r\nTHIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nIS FAIRLY PRONOUNCED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM BUT\r\nIS IMPEDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME IMPACT... \r\nHOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE\r\nAMENABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTECHNIQUES.  AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD BEGIN TO PASS\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS SO A GRADUAL DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO\r\nCOMMENCE AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 295/12.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF HERNAN SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...HERNAN IS LIKELY TO BE NEARING THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE WEAKENING AND BECOMING SHALLOWER...AND BEING MOVED MORE BY\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THEREFORE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nINDICATED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  THIS IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFDL MODEL IS AN\r\nOUTLIER AS IT SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN THE REST OF THE\r\nMODEL SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 14.5N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 15.1N 115.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N 117.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 119.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 17.2N 121.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 19.5N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS KEEPING THE CENTER LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nNOT CHANGED BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED SINCE THE 12 UTC CLASSIFICATION.  SO...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX\r\nA LITTLE ALLOWING HERNAN TO STRENGTHEN SOME AND THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.   A GRADUAL DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TO\r\nCOMMENCE AT THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT\r\nHIGHER THAN GUIDANCE AND FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IN\r\nFACT...THE GFDL IS THE ONLY MODEL WHICH BRIEFLY BRINGS HERNAN TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.\r\n \r\nHERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SINCE THIS\r\nPATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...AS HERNAN WEAKENS\r\nAND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 14.8N 115.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 15.4N 116.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 16.0N 118.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 122.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 125.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 19.0N 128.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HERNAN HAS INDICATED A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE NORTH OF\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY LOOKS\r\nLIKE AN EYE THAT IS TRYING TO FORM. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE A CONSENSUS 55 KT...AND QUIKSCAT EARLIER\r\nTODAY AROUND 1340Z RETRIEVED WINDS OF 50-55 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nHERNAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST...BUT GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY TILTED STRUCTURE EVIDENT\r\nIN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 55 KT.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...HERNAN APPEARS TO BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE...AND ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST THAT\r\nTO HAPPEN WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HERNAN\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STATUS A LITTLE SOONER THAN...AND TO PEAK A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE HAS ABOUT\r\nTWO DAYS UNTIL IT REACHES SSTS OF 26 CELSIUS...SO STEADY WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME...AND AT A LITTLE FASTER RATE THAN\r\nSHOWN BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...BUT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN\r\nSINCE IT IS NOT CRYSTAL CLEAR IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHERE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED.  DESPITE NOT KNOWING THOSE\r\nDETAILS...AND EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nMODELS...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD\r\nWITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF MODERATE STRENGTH FORECAST TO REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HERNAN\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL REACHING THE COOLER WATERS\r\nIN A FEW DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER CYCLONE EVENTUALLY TURNING\r\nWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT IS OTHERWISE\r\nNOT CHANGED THAT MUCH...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 14.8N 116.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.3N 118.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.8N 119.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 121.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.1N 123.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N 126.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 19.0N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 19.0N 133.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HERNAN IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A MID-LEVEL EYE\r\nFEATURE...BUT ALSO SHOWS THAT THIS IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OR\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 15-20 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER HERNAN...WHICH IS THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THIS\r\nSTRUCTURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n55 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT HERNAN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\n275/11.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AND HEADING FOR A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS\r\nTHE AREA NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 130-150W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WITH ENOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING TO STEER HERNAN\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...HERNAN WILL BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT LOCATION AND MOTION...AND CALLS FOR HERNAN TO RESUME A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nDOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY HINTS THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF HERNAN IS SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION.  IF SUBSEQUENT DATA\r\nSHOW THIS IS INDEED THE CASE...AN ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY ON THE NEXT ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HERNAN WOULD REACH THE 26C SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE ECMWF...GFS...AND\r\nNOGAPS FORECAST A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THIS TIME...\r\nWHICH COULD ALLOW GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nUKMET SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OR EVEN SOME INCREASE IN THE SHEAR.  THE\r\nVARIOUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS CALL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING WITH\r\nPEAK INTENSITIES IN THE 60-70 KT RANGE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE AND SHEAR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A SLOWER\r\nINTENSIFICATION RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH HERNAN\r\nREACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HR.  AFTER 36 HR...THE\r\nFORECAST MOTION OVER COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 14.9N 117.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.3N 119.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.8N 121.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.2N 122.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.8N 124.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 18.0N 128.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 18.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND DUE TO SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE\r\nLOCATED ON THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MICROWAVE DATA\r\nREVEAL THAT THE LOW- AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE A LITTLE MORE\r\nALIGNED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO BUT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED ONLY IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR ABOUT 18\r\nHOURS SUGGESTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN\r\nFACT...MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT HERNAN HAS PEAKED ALREADY.\r\nBASED ON CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS A VERY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BRINGING HERNAN TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS. THIS IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY TO OCCUR SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS NOT RELAXING AS ANTICIPATED. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN BEYOND 24-36 HOURS AS HERNAN APPROACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nHERNAN HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 130 DEGREES\r\nWEST WILL PROBABLY INDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IN THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...HERNAN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME\r\nSTEERED WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INITIAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nAND THE TURN TO THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST BEYOND 96 HOURS...AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED USING LATEST AVAILABLE QUIKSCAT.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 15.0N 118.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.1N 120.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.4N 122.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.0N 125.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 128.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER A NOTICEABLE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING...SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A CDO FEATURE NOW PRESENT WITH A HINT OF A RAGGED\r\nEYE WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  WITH DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES NOW\r\nAT T4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND GIVEN RECENT TRENDS...HERNAN IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT\r\nSUGGESTS LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AMONGST OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS\r\nAND...ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...HERNAN SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26\r\nCELSIUS SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  ON THIS BASIS...THE\r\nEXPECTATION IS THAT HERNAN SHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AFTER IT REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS. \r\nGIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION APPARENT IN RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...AND NO APPARENT HINDRANCES TO STRENGTHENING...THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 275/11...WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nHEADING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD...HOWEVER...AFTER REVIEWING A HOST OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nTHIS MORNING...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTERS ARE NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING\r\nFROM NORTHERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BE STEERED MORE WITH\r\nTHE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON A MORE WESTWARD AND POSSIBLY\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 14.7N 119.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 14.8N 121.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 15.1N 123.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 15.5N 125.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 16.1N 126.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 135.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008\r\n \r\nTHE RAGGED EYE FEATURE FROM THIS MORNING HAS PERSISTED INTO THE\r\nAFTERNOON...AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE IS\r\nBECOMING BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REFLECT\r\nTHIS INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WITH TAFB AND SAB COMING IN WITH\r\nT4.5 AND T4.0...RESPECTIVELY. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 75 KT. LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS\r\nPREDICTED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD GIVE HERNAN THE\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD REACH SUB-26C\r\nSSTS AND BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nLIES SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALL OBJECTIVE AIDS AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING IS 275/10...A MOTION WHICH HAS REMAINED NEARLY UNCHANGED\r\nDURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE TURNS\r\nHERNAN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST VERY SOON...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO\r\nA PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LYING WELL NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SHOW A SMALL\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LYING DIRECTLY NORTH OF HERNAN...WHICH HAS\r\nBEEN GUIDING IT ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE. THIS FEATURE SEEMS TO BE\r\nUNDER-REPRESENTED IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND PERHAPS THIS IS\r\nWHY THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A NORTHWARD BIAS WITH\r\nHERNAN.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING\r\nWESTWARD WITH THE HURRICANE AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTH LIFTS OUT.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TRACK TO BEND MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AND PERHAPS EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...AS A WEAKER HERNAN BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 14.8N 120.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.0N 122.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 15.4N 124.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 16.1N 125.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.7N 127.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 130.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 133.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 135.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 08 2008\r\n \r\nHERNAN NOW HAS A PERSISTENT CLOUD-FILLED EYE EMBEDDED IN A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATING THE EYE IS ABOUT 25 N MI WIDE.  AT 00Z...SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 77 KT.  SINCE THAT\r\nTIME...THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS AROUND IT HAS EXPANDED.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 80 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO NONE ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nHERNAN HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 20N\r\nBETWEEN 130-145W...AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SMALL MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR 21N 121W.  THE LATTER FEATURE REMAINS POORLY-\r\nRESOLVED IN THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE MODEL RUNS...WHICH AGAIN TURN\r\nHERNAN MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN WHAT HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL LIES ALONG\r\nTHE LEFT EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.  AFTER 48 HR...THE TROUGH\r\nWEAKENS AND A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF HERNAN.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD BY 72\r\nHR AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 120 HR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE 72-120 HR PART OF THE TRACK MORE OF\r\nLESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nHERNAN IS MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD\r\nREACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HR.  WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...HERNAN SHOULD START TO WEAKEN IN\r\n24-36 HR EVEN THOUGH THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS HAMPERED THE\r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR HERNAN TO REACH A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KT IN ABOUT 12 HR...WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HR...AND WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 120\r\nHR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HR...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE FROM 96-120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 15.1N 121.7W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 15.4N 123.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 16.0N 124.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 16.6N 126.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 17.1N 127.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.5N 130.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 134.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008\r\n \r\nHERNAN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NOW A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE EYE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT WHICH IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  HAVING SAID\r\nTHAT...HERNAN SHOULD BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE\r\nCYCLONE NEARS THE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS HERNAN\r\nWEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.  HERNAN COULD BE\r\nNEARING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nHERNAN IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/09.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS\r\nNORTH OF HERNAN.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED BY\r\nTHE SHALLOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 15.5N 122.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 15.8N 123.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N 125.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 17.3N 128.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF HERNAN HAS BECOME DRAMATICALLY MORE DISTINCT IN GOES\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IT IS NOW\r\nSURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C.  AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0937 UTC DEPICTED A SINGLE COMPLETE EYEWALL\r\nAND AN EYE DIAMETER OF 20-25 N MI.  THERE SEEMS LITTLE DOUBT THAT\r\nHERNAN HAS BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... HAVING UNDERGONE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION SINCE YESTERDAY.  THIS PROVIDES YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE\r\nOF THE INABILITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE THE HUMAN\r\nFORECASTER...TO CAPTURE AND CONVEY THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE\r\nEPISODES WITH A DETERMINISTIC INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE EXACT\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 102 KT...WHILE\r\nOBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT 115 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nCOMPROMISES AT 105 KT...BUT WITHOUT ACTUAL WIND DATA TO KNOW ANY\r\nBETTER...IT IS POSSIBLE HERNAN IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THIS\r\nESTIMATE.  UNDERLYING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT 27 CELSIUS\r\nNOW...AND ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THE HURRICANE WILL CROSS THE 26\r\nCELSIUS ISOTHERM IN ROUGHLY 24 HOURS...SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND\r\nIS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND THAT TIME.  A FASTER DECLINE IS\r\nFORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE\r\nGUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THEN SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nTHAN THE MODELS DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nHERNAN HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...AND ONE MUST GIVE\r\nSOME OF THE MODELS CREDIT FOR CORRECTLY FORECASTING THIS BEND\r\nYESTERDAY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8...BUT A GRADUAL\r\nTURN BACK TO THE LEFT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A WEAKENING\r\nHERNAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN\r\nWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 15.7N 123.3W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.2N 124.4W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 16.8N 125.9W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.3N 127.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 128.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 136.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE...\r\nBUT INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE\r\nEYE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED AROUND T6.2 LATE THIS\r\nMORNING.  A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nSUGGEST THAT HERNAN'S PEAK INTENSITY COULD HAVE BEEN AROUND 110 KT. \r\nTHE LATEST SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102\r\nKT.  SINCE THE RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 105 KT.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS SO COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND A MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAST HERNAN WEAKENS. THE HURRICANE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12\r\nHOURS SO WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nGUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST HERNAN WILL SPIN DOWN...IN FACT...THE HWRF\r\nMODEL KEEPS HERNAN AS A FORMIDABLE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY PREDICTION SHOWS A LITTLE MORE\r\nWEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATED...BUT IT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND THE LGEM MODEL THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT. \r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING\r\nWITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 12-24 HOURS. BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS...THE MODELS PREDICT A MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR A \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS....FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN AS THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS\r\nNEARLY IDENTICAL THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 16.2N 124.0W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.8N 125.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.4N 126.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N 129.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 17.8N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 136.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 09 2008\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI WIDE EYE IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE\r\nWARMED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 102 KT...\r\nALTHOUGH THE FINAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS STEERING IT TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N140W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHIS TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN HERNAN TURNING MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AFTER 72 HR...A\r\nWEAKENING HERNAN SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE AT THIS POINT...WITH THE BAM MODELS AND THE NOGAPS CALLING\r\nFOR A MORE WESTERLY MOTION...AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF CALLING FOR A\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nEXTREMES AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nHERNAN SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER COOLER SSTS DURING AT LEAST THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR....WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 36\r\nHR.  WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES BRING THE CENTER OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nWARMER...25C...WATER AFTER 72 HR...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW A WEAKENING TREND.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO\r\nCALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING...BUT NOT A DECAY INTO A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW.  HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH\r\nOF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE COLD WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 16.7N 124.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.2N 126.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 17.7N 127.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 17.9N 128.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 18.0N 130.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2008\r\n \r\nHERNAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL T AND CI NUMBERS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED AND HERNAN COULD DROP BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SSTS LEVEL OFF IN ABOUT 2 DAYS THEN BEGIN TO\r\nRISE SO A SLOWER RATE OF DECAY IS SHOWN AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST\r\nTIMES...AND HERNAN COULD CLING TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED 305/09. AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HERNAN IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nREPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO RESULTING IN A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST. BEYOND 48 HOURS...A TURN MORE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS STEERED BY\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERLY LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW. THERE REMAINS SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE BAM MODELS AND THE HWRF CALLING FOR A\r\nSLOWER WESTWARD TURN RESULTING IN THOSE MODELS LYING ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. CONVERSELY...THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET MODELS SHOW A MUCH SHARPER WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nWITH THOSE MODELS LYING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...THEN ALONG BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 17.3N 125.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 126.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 18.0N 128.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 18.1N 129.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 135.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 10 2008\r\n\r\nHERNAN CONTINUES ITS SLOW WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES OVER MODESTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS AN EROSION OF THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nAVERAGE ABOUT 80 KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED. \r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL\r\nREMAIN VERY WEAK OVER HERNAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO THE MAIN\r\nCONTRIBUTION TO WEAKENING SHOULD COME FROM THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY\r\nACTUALLY BECOME A LITTLE WARMER.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS PREDICTION.   \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/8.  THE HURRICANE HAD BEEN TRACKING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUT NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nHERNAN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY FORCE A\r\nCONTINUED TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST IN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND QUITE\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 17.7N 126.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 18.2N 127.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.5N 129.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 18.4N 130.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 17.2N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N 140.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-08-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2008\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS INDICATES THAT\r\nHERNAN HAS UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AS THE INNER EYEWALL\r\nTHAT BEGAN TO ERODE AT ABOUT 15Z YESTERDAY IS ESSENTIALLY GONE. \r\nHERNAN EXHIBITS A WELL-DEFINED EYE...WITH DIAMETER OF ABOUT 20 N\r\nMI...SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS THAT ARE STILL QUITE COLD BUT HAVE\r\nBEEN GRADUALLY WARMING TODAY.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE A CONSENSUS 77 KT...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO 75 KT.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HINGES PRIMARILY ON WATER TEMPERATURE CHANGES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...SINCE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW WEAK VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR PERSISTING THROUGH ALMOST THE ENTIRE FIVE-DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  HERNAN IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT\r\n24.5 CELSIUS...AND WHILE THE UNDERLYING WATERS WILL GET COOLER\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEY WILL THEN GET SLIGHTLY WARMER AGAIN\r\nAND APPROACH 25 CELSIUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  AS A RESULT...HERNAN\r\nIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND THEN WEAKEN MORE GRADUALLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE IN FORECASTING HERNAN\r\nTO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF SUGGEST IT COULD STILL BE A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nAT FIVE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9...BUT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY\r\nTURNING TO THE LEFT AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS TO ITS NORTHWEST. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH THE MODELS\r\nAGREEING WELL ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HERNAN\r\nSHOULD BE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING ALONG IN THE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST ABOUT IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 18.2N 127.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N 128.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.5N 130.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.3N 131.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.9N 133.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 135.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 138.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 142.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-08-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 10 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF HERNAN HAS SHRUNK IN\r\nDIAMETER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE EYE HAS ALSO BECOME A\r\nLESS WELL-DEFINED. SINCE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 75 KT. A STEADY DEMISE OVER COLD\r\nWATERS FOR HERNAN SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT FROM LIGHT EASTERLY\r\nTO LIGHT WESTERLY...WHICH MAY HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nLGEM/GFDL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALTHOUGH MOST GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE\r\nNEAR HERNAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COLD WATERS AND INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS...THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE AROUND THE TIME IT REACHES THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...AND THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE\r\nGRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT DUE TO SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDING\r\nTO ITS NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON AN ATYPICAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING IN DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A HAIR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL NEAR THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 18.4N 128.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 18.6N 129.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 18.5N 131.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.2N 132.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 133.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 139.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-08-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2008\r\n \r\nAT 0600 UTC...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB WERE\r\nUNCHANGED AT 77 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE\r\nWARMED AND ADT ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS\r\nLOWERED TO 70 KT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS\r\nHERNAN MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS TODAY AND TOMORROW.\r\nTHEREAFTER...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK BEGIN TO RISE...SO THE\r\nRATE OF DECAY COULD SLOW OR EVEN STOP...AND HERNAN COULD STUBBORNLY\r\nHANG ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HERNAN WILL REMAIN A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT WEAK...AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC.\r\n \r\nHERNAN HAS STARTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 280/9.  WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NOW BUILDING\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  BEYOND 96 HOURS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT HERNAN WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE RESULTING IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT\r\nCHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 18.7N 129.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.7N 130.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.4N 131.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 133.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 134.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 137.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 141.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 15.5N 145.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 11 2008\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST SIX HOURS OR SO...DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER OF\r\nHERNAN HAS CONTRACTED IN AREA AND THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO FILL\r\nWITH CLOUDS. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB... RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED\r\nAT 70 KT AS A CONSENSUS OF THESE NUMBERS. HERNAN IS NOW OVER COOL\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 24C BUT THE POWERFUL CIRCULATION HAS\r\nCAUSED THE SYSTEM TO BE SOMEWHAT RESISTANT TO A RAPID DECAY. IN\r\nADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES HERNAN WEST-SOUTHWEST PARALLEL\r\nTO THE STRONG SST GRADIENT SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS IN LINE WITH SHIPS AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT HERNAN COULD MAINTAIN\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGH DAYS 4 AND 5 EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nHERNAN HAS BEEN ON A SHORT-TERM TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/9. HERNAN IS\r\nAPPROACHING A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII AND\r\nIS LOCATED NEAR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 16N143W...BOTH OF\r\nWHICH MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE RECENT NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE BEGINS ITS WEAKENING TREND...A SOUTHWESTWARD TURN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO COMMENCE AS THE CIRCULATION IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE. HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN\r\nSOMETIME ON THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN CONTRACTED BASED ON AN EXCELLENT 0620 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS COVERING MOST OF HERNAN'S CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 19.0N 130.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N 131.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.6N 132.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.2N 134.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N 135.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N 143.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-08-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2008\r\n \r\nHERNAN WAS DIAGNOSED AS A MARGINAL HURRICANE AT THE 18Z SYNOPTIC\r\nTIME...BUT SINCE THEN THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nHAVE STARTED TO DECOUPLE. BASED ON THIS MOST RECENT SATELLITE\r\nTREND...HERNAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AT THE\r\n21Z ADVISORY TIME.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE STARTED TO DECOUPLE\r\nFROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION...HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO MAKE MORE\r\nOF A WESTWARD AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS IT COMES UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nALL OF THE NHC MODELS. HERNAN OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON THURSDAY.\r\n\r\nHERNAN WILL BE PASSING OVER SUB-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE CONTINUED WEAKENING. HOWEVER...\r\nBY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C AND WARMER SSTS\r\nAND ALSO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THAT\r\nWOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN A\r\nREMNANT LOW AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 19.0N 131.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.9N 132.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.5N 133.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 135.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.6N 137.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 140.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 144.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 16.0N 148.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-08-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 11 2008\r\n\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECREASE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF HERNAN APPEARS TO BE DETACHED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE HIGHER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.\r\nALL SIGNS POINT TO A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF HERNAN...WITH COLD\r\nWATER AND STABLE AIR IN ITS FUTURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH HAS VERIFIED WELL IN THE PAST FOR EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC SYSTEMS DISSIPATING OVER COOL WATERS. MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT\r\nTHREE DAYS...OR SOONER.  \r\n\r\nHERNAN APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED DUE WEST AT ABOUT 8 KT TONIGHT.\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTOMORROW AS STEERING CURRENTS BECOME DOMINATED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS FORECAST\r\nSCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nLATEST FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\nHERNAN OR ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON THURSDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 18.9N 131.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.7N 132.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N 134.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.8N 136.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.2N 137.6W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N 141.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 145.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-08-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008\r\n \r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...AND HERNAN NOW\r\nCONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME MID-LEVEL DEBRIS\r\nCLOUDINESS.  IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nBOTTOM LINE...HERNAN HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO COOL WATERS AND IS\r\nRAPIDLY WEAKENING.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0328 UTC SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT THE INTENSITY WAS NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME.  GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET JUST BELOW THAT\r\nESTIMATE AT 45 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN...AND HERNAN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  IN FACT...IF HERNAN CANNOT GENERATE NEW CONVECTION\r\nSOON...IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT HERNAN IS MOVING JUST\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/08.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS\r\nEXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE IS STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...\r\nAND THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS...AND THE RADIUS OF 12 FT SEAS HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON\r\nESTIMATES PROVIDED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 18.5N 132.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 17.8N 135.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 17.3N 137.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.7N 138.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 15.0N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 15.0N 151.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-08-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008\r\n \r\nHERNAN HAS VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION NOW THAT IT IS OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 23C. AN AVERAGE OF THE TAFB AND SAB\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS PROVIDES AN ESTIMATE OF 45 KT AND THE\r\nMOST RECENT ADT IS NOW DOWN TO 30 KT. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AS 40 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES. SINCE IT IS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT HERNAN WILL BE ABLE TO GENERATE PERSISTENT CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE COOLER WATERS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY. THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS HERNAN\r\nDISSIPATING INTO AN OPEN WAVE WITHIN THE TRADE WIND BELT SOUTHEAST\r\nOF HAWAII BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER...IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 260/8. THE\r\nSHORT-TERM MOTION WILL BE DICTATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS\r\nEXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DIRECTLY TOWARDS\r\nHERNAN...WHICH WILL FORCE A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. ONCE\r\nHERNAN WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN SPEED AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 18.3N 133.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 18.1N 134.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N 136.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 17.2N 137.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N 139.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-08-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008\r\n \r\nA 1436 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT HERNAN HAD A SMALL AREA OF\r\n40 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. SINCE THEN...DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS NOW\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. THERE IS CURRENTLY ONLY A SMALL AREA OF\r\nSHALLOW CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND THIS ACTIVITY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HERNAN CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE OVER COOL OCEAN WATERS. HERNAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH THE LOSS OF CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nHERNAN IS GRADUALLY MAKING A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE\r\nORIENTATION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 260/8. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH A WESTWARD\r\nTURN FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS ONCE HERNAN BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT\r\nLOW. DISSIPATION AS A CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED BY DAY 4...A LITTLE\r\nLATER THAN INDICATED BY SHIPS AND SIMILAR TO THAT INDICATED BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 18.4N 134.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.2N 135.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.7N 136.6W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.2N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 139.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hernan","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP092008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2008\r\n\r\nALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ONCE-POWERFUL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A TIGHT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ABSENT\r\nFOR ABOUT 18 HOURS NEAR THE CENTER...AND HERNAN NO LONGER MEETS THE\r\nDEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n30 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  A SLOW WEAKENING\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY UNTIL TOTAL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT FOUR\r\nDAYS.  \r\n\r\nHERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SMALL BEND TO\r\nTHE WEST IN THE LONGER-TERM AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE LOW.  \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HERNAN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 18.2N 134.8W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 17.9N 135.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 137.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 138.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 16.4N 140.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.5N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2008\r\n \r\nNIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS A 13/1017Z\r\nTRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 185 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS\r\nBECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TEN-E. CURVED BANDING NOTED IN THE TRMM OVERPASS\r\nSUGGESTS THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH...BUT THE RAPID CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION MAY NOT HAVE\r\nTRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE WINDS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/09 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10-E\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE\r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE LAST GFDL MODEL RUN\r\nAPPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER BACK TAKING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD\r\nTOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL SUITE\r\nTAKES THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLY\r\nWEAKENING THE CYCLONE IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE\r\nSYSTEM TO BE STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERNIGHT BURST OF CONVECTION WAS IMPRESSIVE AND\r\nHELPED TO QUICKLY SPIN UP THE WIND FIELD...THIS DEVELOPMENT PROCESS\r\nMAY BE SHORT-LIVED. THE CONVECTIVE BURST MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE\r\nTO THE DIVERGENT REGION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM\r\nMOVING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nAND DERIVED WIND FIELDS ALSO INDICATE THAT THE NOSE OF THE 40-50 KT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL JET SHOULD BE ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE\r\nNORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nINCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. FOR THIS\r\nREASON...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 2 WITH\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTERWARD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 16.3N 105.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 16.7N 107.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.3N 109.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 110.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 111.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES... PRIMARILY IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ISELLE.  THIS INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY A DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09 KT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. TROPICAL STORM\r\nISELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AFTER THAT\r\nAS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES. THE LATEST GFDL AND GFS MODEL RUNS TAKE A VERY WEAK\r\nSYSTEM NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...WHEREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC MODELS TAKE THE SYSTEM\r\nSLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK REMAINS ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  \r\n \r\nAN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM TO THE NORTHEAST OF ISELLE IS\r\nALREADY BEGINNING TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL MAINTAINS 20-25 KT OF SHEAR\r\nACROSS ISELLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIS FORECAST. BY 96 HOURS...ISELLE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nTHAT ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 16.6N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.1N 108.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 109.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 17.9N 111.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.2N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 18.6N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 19.0N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2008\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS AT 1630Z THIS AFTERNOON PLACED THE CENTER OF ISELLE ON\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL BLOB OF CONVECTION...FARTHER NORTH\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND LACKING ANY EVIDENCE TO THE\r\nCONTRARY I'M ASSUMING THAT RELATIVE LOCATION STILL HOLDS.  THIS\r\nREQUIRES A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10.  ISELLE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO...BUT THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNUSUALLY DIFFICULT...AS ISELLE\r\nIS IN A HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. \r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A CONTINUED TRACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nISELLE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH\r\nPRESSURE.  THE GFDL...HOWEVER...CALLS FOR ISELLE TO SUCCUMB TO THE\r\nSHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR SO...TAKING ITS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY WESTWARD\r\nAND ITS LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. \r\nTHE LATTER TRACK SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW...NOT SO MUCH\r\nBECAUSE IT IS UNLIKELY...BUT BECAUSE IF SUCH A TRACK DOES\r\nMATERIALIZE THERE SHOULD BE VERY LITTLE OF ISELLE LEFT.  IF ISELLE\r\nIS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48-72 HOURS...IT WILL HAVE HAD TO\r\nFOLLOW A DEEPER LAYER FLOW AND THAT IS THE ASSUMPTION REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE TRACK GIVEN BELOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFS AND MEDIUM BAM THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND SHOWS RELATIVELY\r\nLITTLE MOTION AFTER THAT IN DEFERENCE TO THE MODEL SPREAD.   IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODEL CONSENSUS LIES EVEN FARTHER TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...WITH DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. \r\nNORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND NONE OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MUCH STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS WHEN ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26C SST\r\nISOTHERM.  AS NOTED ABOVE...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT ISELLE WILL\r\nNOT LAST THAT LONG.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 17.4N 107.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.9N 108.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 110.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 111.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-08-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE SYMMETRIC...BUT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL BENEATH\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AT 35-45\r\nKT...BUT MANUAL ANALYSIS OF THE AMBIGUITIES FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS AT\r\nAROUND 01Z SUGGESTS MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT...SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 40 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS STRUGGLING IN\r\nTHE FACE OF EASTERLY SHEAR...AND DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nSHEAR TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...WITH\r\nPERHAPS EVEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN THE SHORT TERM.  AS A\r\nRESULT...DESPITE WARM WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\nTWO TO THREE DAYS...NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST\r\nMUCH STRENGTHENING IF AT ALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR VERY LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS.  GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SHEAR...AND THE\r\nLESS-THAN-IMPRESSIVE DEPICTIONS OF THE CYCLONE IN THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL FIELDS...IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT ISELLE WILL NOT LAST THE\r\nENTIRE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE 01Z QUIKSCAT PASS...AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AND\r\nTRMM AT AROUND THAT SAME TIME...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ISELLE\r\nIS MOVING A TINY BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 290/9.  ISELLE IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS\r\nALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT RIDGE.  THE SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS SIGNIFICANT THROUGH 72 HOURS AND BECOMES\r\nPARTICULARLY LARGE BEYOND THAT TIME...SEEMINGLY IN PART BECAUSE THE\r\nMODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF ISELLE.  SOME\r\nMODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND UKMET FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO HAVE\r\nDISSIPATED BY DAY 3.  PRESUMING A WEAKENED ISELLE DOES LAST INTO\r\nTHE 3-5 DAY TIME FRAME...IT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MOVING VERY FAST\r\nSINCE IT WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR EAST TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS THROUGH\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 17.6N 108.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.3N 109.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.1N 110.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.9N 112.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-08-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2008\r\n \r\nANOTHER IMPRESSIVE NOCTURNAL BURST OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED\r\nWELL-DEFINED MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS AS NOTED IN A\r\n14/0921Z TRMM OVERPASS. HOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME...THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO INCREASING\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 45 KT\r\nAT 12Z AND FOR THE ADVISORY TIME BASED ON CONSENSUS T3.0 SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS AT THIS\r\nTIME...BUT ISELLE HAS HAD A HISTORY OF REDEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIN THE FACE OF OTHERWISE HOSTILE CONDITIONS. THE CENTER LOCATION IS\r\nBASED ON EXTRAPOLATING THE VORTEX TILT TO THE NORTHEAST NOTED IN\r\nTRMM IMAGERY AND USING THE STORM MOTION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD\r\nAFTER THAT AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW THAT IS\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT\r\nFOR THE GFDL AND A UKMET MODELS WHICH TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD\r\nA WESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO COME\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE CURRENTLY CENTERED\r\nABOUT 650 NMI TO ITS WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED REMAIN BETWEEN 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS. THESE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH\r\nDECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING BY 24-36 HOURS...OF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 17.8N 109.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.4N 110.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 19.1N 111.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.7N 112.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.2N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 20.8N 115.4W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-08-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2008\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE HAS WEAKENED AS NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nBASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE HAS MADE A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS MAY BE A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO THE\r\nEARLIER WEAKENING OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...\r\nCONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS REDEVELOPED...SO A TURN\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AND CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARD...A SHALLOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR\r\nREMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AS THE CIRCULATION GETS\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...AND ALSO\r\nPOSSIBLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE SITUATED TO\r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ISELLE. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE NOW\r\nSUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AND THERE ARE NO LONGER ANY MODELS THAT TAKE\r\nISELLE TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nHOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND THESE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH STEADILY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST CYCLE WITH ISELLE POSSIBLY BECOMING\r\nA NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 17.8N 110.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 111.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.9N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.8N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 20.0N 119.0W    20 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN ISELLE'S CLOUD PATTERN THIS\r\nEVENING.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nDEPICT THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT 20 TO 30 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN ADDITION TO GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS SCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR ISELLE TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS.    \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A NORTHWEST TRACK BIAS...POSSIBLY DUE TO\r\nSOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nA FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF ISELLE. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NUDGED TOWARD THE NOGAPS WHICH APPEARS TO BE\r\nACCURATELY DEPICTING THE LOW TO MID LAYER STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY\r\nA RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 17.7N 111.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 18.4N 113.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.8N 114.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.1N 115.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.4N 116.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008\r\n \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND\r\nDEPTH.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 05Z RETRIEVED WINDS OF ABOUT 35\r\nKT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND WHILE THOSE\r\nVALUES COULD HAVE BEEN SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATES THAT ARE COMMON WITH\r\nTHAT INSTRUMENT...THE WEAKENING CONVECTION SUGGESTS THE WINDS HAVE\r\nPROBABLY COME DOWN SINCE THEN.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING ITS\r\nTOLL ON ISELLE AND IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GET A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  AS A RESULT...DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...ALL OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS STEADY WEAKENING...AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nMIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS\r\nSTEERING ISELLE TOWARD THE WEST OR ABOUT 270/7.  AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS...IT OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD BUT PROBABLY SLOW DOWN...SINCE IT WILL REMAIN WELL EAST OF\r\nTHE MAIN BELT OF LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS GENERALLY A\r\nBLEND OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 17.7N 111.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N 113.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N 114.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 115.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 18.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 18.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP\r\nNEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE GENERAL TREND HAS\r\nBEEN FOR CLOUD TOPS TO WARM AND THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO\r\nDECREASE OWING TO MODERATE EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OF T2.5/35 KT.\r\n \r\nAN AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 15/0859Z INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. OTHER\r\nTHAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE GENERAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FORM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISELLE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BEING STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nRIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS QUITE DIFLUENT...THE 20-30 KT WINDS\r\nIMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE IS CREATING MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THESE HOSTILE\r\nCONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH LEAD\r\nTO THE FORECAST WEAKENING TREND.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 17.7N 111.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.3N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.4N 114.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 18.4N 115.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 18.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.5N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 18.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008\r\n \r\nISELLE'S CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY DUE\r\nTO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...A\r\n15/1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME CREDIBLE 35- TO 40-KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nCONVECTION PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE 34-KT WIND\r\nRADII HAVE ALSO BEEN LIMITED TO ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nBASED ON THE QUIKSCAT WIND DATA AND CURRENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MOSTLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS DIFLUENT...20- TO 30-KT WINDS\r\nOVERSPREADING THE CYCLONE HAS CREATED MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE\r\nUNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 17.6N 111.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.8N 111.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.1N 113.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.3N 114.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2008\r\n \r\nISELLE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY THIS EVENING...AS THE INCREASING\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR DISPLACES THE EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION FARTHER\r\nFROM THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT...AND A 1726Z ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 30 KT OR LESS.  BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKENING\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD...SURRENDERING TO THE HARSH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.  IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE\r\nSHIPS AND THE LGEM SUGGEST AN EVEN EARLIER REMNANT LOW\r\nSCENARIO...IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD COME TO FRUITION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 320/2...AN EXPECTED TEMPORARY DRIFT\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD RESUME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nAND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  BECAUSE\r\nOF THE BRIEF NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS DERIVED\r\nFROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 18.2N 111.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.4N 111.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.9N 113.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 19.0N 114.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 19.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE HAS DISSIPATED AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS\r\nWITH SOME LEFTOVER MID-LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS.  WITH VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS\r\nTHE CONVECTIONLESS CIRCULATION GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN.  IN\r\nFACT...ISELLE APPEARS TO BE WELL ON ITS WAY TO REMNANT LOW\r\nSTATUS...PERHAPS LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW MOVING WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING\r\nRESULTING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR 340/04.  A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS AS THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE ENCOUNTER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 18.7N 111.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.1N 111.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N 112.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nISELLE IS PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION...JUST ENOUGH TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WITH STRONG EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR FORECAST TO CONTINUE...ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ISELLE HAS\r\nMADE AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/5 KT.  ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS\r\nGENERAL HEADING THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 18.6N 112.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 113.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.9N 114.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 115.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BURST THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY\r\nDISSIPATING...LEAVING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS THAT IS MOVING RAPIDLY\r\nWESTWARD...AND AGAIN EXPOSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ISELLE.  \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT 25-30 KT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.  WITH STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE AND THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS BECOMING MORE\r\nSPORADIC...ISELLE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nISELLE HAS MOVED SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD TODAY...BUT THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN SOON.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.  DUE TO THE MORE\r\nSOUTHWARD INITIAL LOCATION...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 18.4N 112.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 18.6N 113.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 18.8N 114.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.0N 115.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.1N 117.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Iselle","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP102008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2008\r\n \r\nALL THAT REMAINS OF ISELLE IS AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF CLOUDS WELL\r\nDISPLACED FROM A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO\r\nTHE WEST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA\r\nOF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE INTERMITTENT PERIODS\r\nOF CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT IT IS BELIEVED\r\nTHAT THESE BRIEF EPISODES WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO\r\nRE-DEVELOP THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...HOWEVER\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARD...THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATES IN AROUND 4 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ISELLE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF ISELLE CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 18.6N 112.7W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 18.7N 113.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.9N 114.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.0N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.0N 115.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DESPITE STRONG UPPER WINDS...A STRONG\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER FOR THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS AND CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE\r\nPROMINENT.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB ARE 2.0/30\r\nKT...THUS THE ELEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON IS BORN\r\nIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  THE\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DIMINISH AND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE\r\nSOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DO\r\nNOT INTENSIFY THIS SYSTEM MUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE\r\nLOWER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO 50 KT. IN\r\nABOUT 72 HR...A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.  A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LIES JUST WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE\r\nTHAN OTHER MODELS...AND SUGGEST MORE OF A DIRECT IMPACT TO BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. IF THE FORECAST SHIFTS MUCH TO EAST LATER TODAY...\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 18.4N 107.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.5N 108.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 109.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.8N 110.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.5N 112.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 26.5N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 28.5N 114.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008\r\n\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION IS CONTINUING TO PULSE WEST OF THE CENTER...WHICH\r\nREMAINS IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA FROM 1300 UTC SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST\r\n30 KT.  SINCE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE STILL BELOW TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT...BUT\r\nTHIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND\r\nSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER... A\r\nCOMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS...MORE STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS A COMPROMISE OF THE MORE BULLISH STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS MOVING\r\n315/10...THOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THAT\r\nESTIMATE.  A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO\r\nSTEERING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nOVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH\r\nIN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE MODELS ARE NOT\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION BEYOND A DAY OR\r\nTWO WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE\r\nNOGAPS/GFS.  I'M INCLINED TO TO LEAN ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE FOR NOW DUE TO THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION AND THE LIMITED\r\nWESTWARD EXTENT OF THE MEXICAN RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET MODEL.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 19.5N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 20.5N 109.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 21.7N 110.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 112.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 27.0N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 29.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2008\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF JULIO IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT STILL\r\nNEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SUCH A\r\nCENTER PLACEMENT SUGGESTS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO HINDER\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...LATEST DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.  WITH JULIO\r\nEXPECTED TO BE OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES ON THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  UNFORTUNATELY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH SOME SHOWING AN INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR WHILE OTHERS IMPLY SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT JULIO WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nSLIGHTLY WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR ALLOWING SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INTERACTION\r\nWITH LAND RESULTS IN WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES...JULIO IS NOW MOVING \r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/11.  THE SHORT-TERM TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A CHALLENGE TO SAY THE LEAST...AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nANTICIPATE WHETHER THE CENTER OF JULIO WILL REMAIN CONNECTED WITH\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  SHOULD THE CENTER BECOME DETACHED...IT WOULD\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE SHALLOW STEERING.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS CONNECTED...IT WOULD TEND TO MOVE MORE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL.  THIS RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER JULIO WILL TRACK EAST OF...WEST OF...OR\r\nOVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  GIVEN THE GFDL'S RESPECTABLE\r\nTRACK RECORD IN SIMILAR SITUATIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARD THAT MODEL AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS REASONING COUPLED WITH A SLIGHT INITIAL\r\nCENTER RELOCATION NECESSITATES AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST ALSO REQUIRES A NORTHWARD\r\nEXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII ARE BASED ON NEARBY SHIPS DHER AND\r\nDDFD2\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 20.5N 108.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N 109.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 23.2N 109.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 24.6N 110.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 25.7N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 27.5N 112.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 29.5N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\nJULIO IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nTHIS HAS RESULTED IN A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...WHILE A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 0135 UTC SHOWED NO RELIABLE WINDS ABOVE 35 KT. \r\nBASED ON THIS AND THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nSINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12.  JULIO IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND HEADING FOR A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST JULIO TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN...WITH THE GUIDANCE CLUSTERED AROUND A\r\nTRACK NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED\r\nON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE GFDL MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...UKMET...AND\r\nECMWF SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF JULIO BY\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT\r\nWESTWARD...WITH JULIO PASSING ON THE RIDGE AXIS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE RESULTING DECREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION\r\nAS LONG AS THE CENTER IS OVER WARM WATER OR NOT OVER LAND.  AFTER\r\n48 HOURS...JULIO IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nWHICH SHOULD AT LEAST PREVENT INTENSIFICATION EVEN IF THE CENTER\r\nEMERGES OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 21.5N 109.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 22.7N 110.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 24.1N 111.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 25.5N 112.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.7N 112.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 28.5N 113.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 30.5N 114.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nJULIO IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A RATHER IMPRESSIVE\r\nBURST OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY AN AMSU MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS AROUND 1215 UTC.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 45 AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nTAFB FIX POSITION WAS A LITTLE FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTION...WHICH \r\nYIELDS AN ESTIMATE THAT IS LIKELY ON THE HIGH SIDE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON THE SAB CLASSIFICATION AND\r\nA RECENTLY-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT PASS.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS ALSO CONFIRMS\r\nOUR EARLIER WIND RADII ESTIMATES. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11.  JULIO CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nJULIO HAS ONLY A LITTLE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION\r\nINTERACTS WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR PRIOR TO REACHING THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA IS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THEN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER.  IF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INLAND OVER THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA IT COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FASTER THAN INDICATED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 22.4N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 23.7N 110.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 25.3N 111.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.7N 112.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 29.1N 113.6W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JULIO HAS REMAINED DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE DAY.\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF JULIO PASSED VERY NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 19Z. A COUPLE OF UNOFFICIAL\r\nREPORTING STATIONS HAVE REPORTED MINIMUM PRESSURES BETWEEN 1000 AND\r\n1003 MB...ALTHOUGH THE ACCURACY OF THESE MEASUREMENTS IS UNKNOWN.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT. JULIO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN\r\nINTENSITY AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CIRCULATION\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA.     \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...AND ECMWF ALL PREDICT THAT JULIO WILL SLOW DOWN\r\nCONSIDERABLY AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW.  HOWEVER... \r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST A FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION INTO\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS A SLOW DOWN IN 2-3 DAYS AS JULIO\r\nWEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE FROM JULIO COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 23.2N 110.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 24.4N 111.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 25.9N 111.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 27.4N 112.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 28.4N 113.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2008\r\n \r\nIT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO...BUT AN ASCAT\r\nPASS AROUND 18Z...OBSERVATIONS FROM LA PAZ...AND A HEALTHY DOSE OF\r\nCONTINUITY PLACE THE CENTER NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT JULIO HAD\r\nWEAKENENED A BIT AND THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11.  JULIO IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. \r\nTHIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN THIS\r\nPATTERN...THE MOST LIKELY TRACK IS A PATH MORE OR LESS UP THE\r\nPENINSULA WITH A GRADUAL BEND TO THE RIGHT THAT COULD PLACE THE\r\nCENTER IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nCOLLAPSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND NEAR THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nCOLD WATER LIES AHEAD IF THE CENTER STAYS OFF THE WEST COAST...AND\r\nTHE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA ISN'T GOING TO DO JULIO ANY\r\nFAVORS EITHER.  THUS WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND JULIO MAY WELL\r\nBECOME A DEPRESSION FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.  EVEN IF THE CENTER\r\nEMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF...BY THEN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS PLACE THE CYCLONE UNDER STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPREVENT ANY REDEVELOPMENT. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 24.4N 111.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 25.7N 111.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 27.4N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 28.8N 113.0W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 29.5N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 30.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n \r\nIT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF JULIO.  HOWEVER...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM GUSAVE...AND CONTINUITY\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGEST THE CENTER REMAINS OVER THE\r\nSOUTH CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nALTHOUGH THE GUSAVE RADAR DEPICTION OF THE CENTER IS RATHER POOR. \r\nIT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/13.  JULIO IS WEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER WEST CENTRAL MEXICO.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHIS FEATURE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF JULIO...WITH A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF JULIO OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE TO LEAVE JULIO\r\nIN AN AREA OF COLLAPSED STEERING CURRENTS BY 48-72 HR.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 36 HR...THEN NOT SURPRISINGLY STARTS TO DIVERGE. \r\nBASED ON THE GUIDANCE....THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE AS IT\r\nMOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN CALLING FOR IT TO STALL AFTER 48\r\nHR.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF JULIO OVER THE WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 12-18 HR.  BASED ON THIS\r\nAND SOME CONTINUING LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR JULIO TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HR. \r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS THE REMNANTS TO SURVIVE MUCH\r\nLONGER THAN 72 HR...AND THUS THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY\r\n96 HR. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 25.8N 111.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 27.0N 112.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 28.4N 112.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 29.2N 113.2W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 29.9N 113.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JULIO REMAINS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS\r\nMORNING.  AN 0934 UTC AMSRE-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE CENTER WAS OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND EARLY MORNING VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LIKELY REMAINS OVER LAND.  THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN JULIO AS A TROPICAL \r\nSTORM GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/12.  JULIO IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE LARGE SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nPREDICT A DECREASE IN JULIO'S FORWARD MOTION AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JULIO MAY CONTINUE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nLEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SLOWS JULIO DOWN AND KEEPS THE CENTER\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER OF JULIO MAY MOVE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF\r\nOF CALIFORNIA LATER TODAY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS\r\nJULIO AS A TROPICAL STORM FOR 12 HOURS.  DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE\r\nCENTER MAY BE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODES PREDICT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nJULIO.  GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY THAT JULIO COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN THE SHORT-TERM OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nNORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND HAS ISSUED\r\nA NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE\r\nRAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 26.8N 112.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 28.1N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 29.1N 113.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 29.7N 113.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 30.1N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 30.3N 113.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...\r\nHOWEVER SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY\r\nNEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...JUST NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nTOWN OF ROSALIA.  AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 999.5 MB WAS RECEIVED A FEW HOURS AGO FROM A STATION NEAR BURRO\r\nCOVE...JUST SOUTH OF MULEGE.  THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR THE SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER MINIMUM PRESSURE ON THE EARLIER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.  THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS DEGRADED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH\r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATE REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nJULIO CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 340/10 KT.  THE\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED AS JULIO IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL HEADING DURING THE 2-3 DAYS WITH\r\nA DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS TO NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL PREDICT A SEPARATION OF\r\nTHE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTER TURNING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...WHILE\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO\r\nAND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH JULIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE SOON...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS JULIO BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nWITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM JULIO IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE\r\nRAINFALL OVER THAT REGION.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 27.5N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 28.6N 112.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 29.5N 113.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 29.9N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 30.2N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julio","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL AND MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...\r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF\r\nEAST-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND...THEREFORE...\r\nJULIO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nJULIO HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nDECOUPLING AND IT IS NO LONGER A DEEP SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG OR\r\nNEAR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO THE\r\nBROADER CYCLONIC GYRE OF A THERMAL LOW OVER THE REGION. THE LATEST\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 24 HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nTERRAIN INTERACTION...AND JULIO SHOULD STEADILY SPIN DOWN AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM JULIO WILL STILL CREATE A\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND\r\nTHAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER\r\nTHAT REGION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 28.0N 112.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 28.8N 112.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 29.4N 113.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 29.8N 113.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 29.9N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julio","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME\r\nLESS DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. MOST OF\r\nTHE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. AT THIS TIME WE ARE KEEPING THE\r\nCYCLONE AS A 25 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD ABOUT 3 TO 5 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 28.8N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 29.5N 113.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 30.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julio","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP112008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2008\r\n\r\nJULIO LACKS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW.  THIS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING\r\nCYCLONE IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FEW\r\nFIXES.  INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 350/4 AND A SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIO'S REMNANTS HAVE\r\nSPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST\r\nUNITED STATES.  THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SOME\r\nRAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JULIO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 28.4N 112.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 29.0N 112.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 29.7N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-09-02 16:00:00","Key":"EP122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008\r\n900 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE AREA\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IS\r\nSUFFICIENTLY CONNECTED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CONSIDER THE\r\nSYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0 AT 14Z.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN\r\nTHE SHEAR PATTERN INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE FACT THAT NOT LONG\r\nAGO THE CENTER WAS FARTHER FROM THE CONVECTION...I'M GOING TO\r\nINITIATE ADVISORIES A LITTLE BELOW THE CLASSIFICATIONS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nKARINA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIMITING INTENSIFICATION.  BY 36\r\nHOURS OR SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DECAY OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH WITH A SKETCHY\r\nHISTORY ON THE CENTER THIS ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE A LITTLE WEAKER AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nGENERALLY SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION...AND SHOULD THE SYSTEM SUCCUMB\r\nTO THE SHEAR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BELOW WILL PROBABLY BE TOO FAST.\r\nI AM ASSUMING THE SYSTEM STAYS INTACT FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO SO I\r\nHAVE TRIED TO BLEND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE MEDIUM\r\nAND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1600Z 19.3N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.9N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.3N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 115.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z PROVIDES SUPPORT FOR THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS VERY\r\nNEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO PERSISTENT\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL\r\nDIMINISH ONLY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE OBJECTIVE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW DECAY OF\r\nKARINA.  IF KARINA FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WILL REACH THE\r\n26C SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY\r\nDEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nWITH MORE VISIBLE IMAGERY I AM MORE CONFIDENT IN THE CURRENT INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WEAKEN\r\nKARINA VERY QUICKLY AND LEAVE ITS REMNANTS TO MEANDER OR DRIFT\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE HWRF KEEPS KARINA\r\nTOGETHER LONGER AND CONSEQUENTLY HAS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. \r\nAGAIN...I AM GOING TO ASSUME THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN CONNECTED\r\nTO THE DEEP CONVECTION AND MOVE MOSTLY WESTWARD FOR AT LEAST\r\nANOTHER DAY OR SO BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AS IT WEAKENS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE IS NO MODEL THAT SHOWS THIS TRACK EXPLICITLY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 19.5N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 19.7N 113.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 20.2N 115.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 20.1N 116.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR KARINA HAS\r\nWEAKENED AND THE CENTER IS FULLY EXPOSED. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE DROPPING...THUS THE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 30 KT. EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE UPPER\r\nWINDS ONLY LESSENING A BIT IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC\r\nPARAMETERS FROM THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE A RATHER STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE\r\nDEPRESSION. ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW DROP IN INTENSITY...AND SO\r\nDOES THE NHC FORECAST. KARINA MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN\r\nSHOWN IN THE FORECAST IF CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS PERSIST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6.   SOME RIDGING IS FORECAST\r\nNORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  ASSUMING THAT KARINA REMAINS WEAK...THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY\r\nCAUSE A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IN FEW DAYS...AND\r\nWHATEVER IS LEFT OF KARINA COULD GET CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SEEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN THE GFS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 20.0N 112.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N 115.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 20.7N 115.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS SEPARATED ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF THE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A STABILIZING\r\nATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT BASED ON THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS...THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nAND KARIN COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  KARINA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE LOW-LAYER FLOW OF A\r\nRIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING WESTWARD FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\nAFTERWARD...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING A MORE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WHICH SHOULD\r\nINITIATE A MORE SOUTHWEST DRIFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE UKMET.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 20.0N 113.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.1N 115.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 19.8N 116.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP122008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122008\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nKARINA HAS BEEN UNABLE TO GENERATE PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION\r\nFOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE WINDS HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO AROUND 25 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE.  WITH THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...STABLE\r\nAIR...AND STRONG SHEAR...SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/4.  NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE\r\nREMNANT LOW SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A\r\nGRADUAL TURN SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.2N 114.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.3N 114.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.3N 115.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE STRONG\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS RAPIDLY\r\nORGANIZED INTO TROPICAL STORM LOWELL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 35 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. SHIP DGTX LOCATED WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALSO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 32 KT AT\r\n07/0000Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT THAT LOWELL WILL MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION...ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS IN THE 72-120 HOUR TIME\r\nFRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS SIMILAR TO SPEED OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nLOWELL IS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 29C AND\r\nBENEATH MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE PRESENT 20-KT SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS...SO STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL LOWELL REACHES MUCH COOLER SSTS\r\nBY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STEADY\r\nDEVELOPMENT TREND OF THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER SINCE THE SHIPS FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE MORE NORTHERLY BAM\r\nMEDIUM MODEL TRACK...WHICH TAKES LOWELL OVER COOLER WATER AND\r\nBENEATH STRONGER SHEAR CONDITIONS SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CALLING FOR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 15.7N 106.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.4N 107.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 111.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 18.4N 113.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.8N 115.1W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 19.8N 116.4W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 20.5N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS A LITTLE\r\nNORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A\r\nMASS OF CONVECTION THAT IS VERY COLD BUT RELATIVELY SHAPELESS.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...BUT\r\nTHIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS.  THE GFDL SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE HWRF AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS BRING LOWELL UP TO ABOUT 60 KT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE LATTER TWO MODELS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nLOWELL IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nCHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH THE 00Z RUNS...WITH ALL THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS NOW SHOWING A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD\r\nFROM CALIFORNIA THAT TURNS LOWELL NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY\r\nTHREE.  IN FACT...THE GFDL AND ECMWF TURN LOWELL SO SHARPLY THAT IT\r\nRECURVES SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT\r\nSTILL LIES ON THE EXTREME LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THERE ARE\r\nSOME HINTS IN THE MODELS THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nCOULD SEPARATE BY DAY THREE...AND THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nLONGER TERM TRACK FORECAST. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 16.6N 107.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 17.3N 108.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 18.2N 110.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 18.7N 112.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 19.4N 113.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 22.5N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n\r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL REMAINS ON\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 2.5 FROM SAB...35 KT...AND 3.0 FROM TAFB...45 KT. \r\nI'M GOING TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND USE 40 KT AS AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING LOWELL IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...SSTS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR SOME\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR AT LEAST TWO OR THREE DAYS...SO IT IS A\r\nLITTLE SURPRISING THAN NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE HWRF SHOW MUCH\r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH LOWELL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM\r\nMEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A TROUGH DIVING DOWN\r\nFROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.  MODELS AREN'T IN VERY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS/UK ARE MUCH\r\nFARTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH THE STORM INITIALLY...AND CONSEQUENTLY\r\nTURN THE STORM LATER THAN OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE ECMWF/GFDL SHOW A\r\nMOTION MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN THE SHORT-TERM AND POSITION\r\nLOWELL FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BE AFFECTED BY THE TROUGH IN LESS\r\nTHAN 2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT BUT IS\r\nSTILL WEST AND SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST WITH LOWELL.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 17.2N 108.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.9N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 18.7N 111.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n \r\nALL OF THE LOWELL'S DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF\r\nITS CENTER DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. THE CENTER\r\nIS ALSO PARTIALLY EXPOSED...REVEALING A COMPLEX PATTERN OF\r\nMESOVORTICES WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM\r\nEARLIER SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 45 KT...SO THIS VALUE\r\nWILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN A\r\nDAY OR SO...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nMUCH STRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THAT LOWELL SHOULD BE OVER RELATIVELY\r\nWARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR FOR AT LEAST 48 HR...I'M GOING TO REDUCE\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS\r\nMUCH AS MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  A COMBINATION OF COOLER SSTS\r\nAND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD WEAKEN THE\r\nSTORM IN THE LONG-TERM.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS GIVING A BETTER IDEA OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION...NOW 305/10.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING.\r\nA GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS LONG AS THE LOWELL\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP IN TWO OR THREE DAYS AS A\r\nTROUGH MOVES DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE USA...STEERING THE STORM\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST.  THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nSPREAD OF WHEN THE TURN BACK TOWARD BAJA OCCURS.  HOWEVER ALL\r\nRELIABLE MODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS NOW TURN THE SYSTEM TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OR EAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT IS STILL WEST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE NEXT FORECAST WAS\r\nADJUSTED EVEN FARTHER NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 17.9N 108.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 18.7N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.6N 111.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 20.4N 112.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N 113.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 23.5N 111.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH LOWELL HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW COMPLETELY COVERS THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nAT 00Z FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WAS T3.0/45 KT. HOWEVER...DURING THE\r\nPAST 2 HOURS SINCE THAT SATELLITE FIX...DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO T3.5/55 KT AS THE CENTER HAS BECOME EMBEDDED FARTHER\r\nINTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. THEREFORE\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10. LOWELL HAS MADE A SLIGHT\r\nWESTWARD JOG PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...WHICH HAS VERTICALLY INCREASED THE\r\nVORTEX UP TO THE 200 MB LEVEL WHERE MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXIST.\r\nOTHER THAN THIS SHORT TERM WOBBLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\n...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY\r\nOVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LOWELL BY 48-72 HOURS. THIS\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW AND PERMIT LOWELL TO SLOWLY\r\nRECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT...OR WEST...OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS LOWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO\r\nLESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHILE REMAINING OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST\r\n27C. THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE\r\nMOIST WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF MORE THAN 70 PERCENT. THESE\r\nCONDITIONS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE THAT SOME DEGREE OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL STEADILY\r\nDECREASES LOWELL'S INTENSITY AND MAKES THE CYCLONE A DEPRESSION BY\r\n96 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DESCRIBED ABOVE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES LOWELL A CATEGORY 1\r\nHURRICANE BY 24 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING IT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 18.2N 109.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 18.9N 110.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 19.9N 112.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 20.7N 113.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 21.6N 113.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 22.8N 113.3W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 24.0N 112.0W    50 KT...NEAR SOUTHWEST BAJA\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W    35 KT...OVR SRN GULF OF CALIF\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF LOWELL CONTINUES TO CONSIST OF A LARGE BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES. AN 0146\r\nUTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED SOME BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT. SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT\r\n20-25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER LOWELL. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND SHIPS GUIDANCE PREDICTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL ONLY DECREASE A\r\nLITTLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.\r\nSINCE BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE NEGATIVE...VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE ABOVE NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF. \r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW THAT LOWELL \r\nCONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOWELL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...DUE TO THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION.  THEREAFTER...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH\r\nALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN LOWELL TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. \r\nTHE MODELS THAT MAINTAIN LOWELL AS A STRONGER AND DEEPER SYSTEM\r\nMOVE THE STORM MUCH FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE MODELS THAT\r\nWEAKEN LOWELL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SOLUTION OF\r\nA WEAKER LOWELL AND SHOWS THE STORM SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 18.2N 110.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 111.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 113.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 20.9N 113.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 21.9N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 23.3N 113.2W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 24.2N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 25.0N 110.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF A CONVECTIVE BURST.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE STORM IS UNDERGOING ABOUT\r\n20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY.  IN\r\nADDITION...JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW 40 KT WINDS...AND THERE\r\nWAS AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 43 KT AT 0926Z.  BASED ON THE\r\nABOVE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/8.  LOWELL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN LOWELL TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTHEAST.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS\r\nMAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST LOWELL WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE. \r\nTHE HWRF...BAMD...AND LBAR ALL MOVE THE THE STORM VERY RAPIDLY...\r\nWITH 120 HR POSITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE GFS...UKMET...AND BAMS KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WEST\r\nAND SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH 120 HR.  THE DIFFERENCE\r\nBETWEEN THE BAMS AND BAMD MODELS IS STRIKING AND SUGGESTS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT LOWELL COULD SHEAR APART AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE SLOWEST MODELS...CALLING\r\nFOR LOWELL TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND THEN MOVE\r\nINTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  IT IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT IS\r\nIN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND ECMWF.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOUR.  HOWEVER...LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...AND THIS SHOULD REDUCE\r\nTHE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION EVEN WHEN THE SHEAR DECREASES.  AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE...LOWELL MAY FIND WARMER WATER...BUT IS ALSO EXPECTED\r\nTO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR..  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THUS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING...WITH THE NEW INTENSITIES A LITTLE ABOVE ALL\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR LOWELL TO SHEAR\r\nAPART AFTER 48 HR...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 19.0N 111.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.7N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 22.4N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 23.5N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 25.0N 111.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 26.0N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nLOWELL CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WHICH IS CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE PARTLY EXPOSED\r\nAT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSING AND PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB....WHILE A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THIS MORNING SHOWED ONE 45\r\nKT WIND.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT...AND RECENTLY\r\nRECEIVED LOW-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nEARLIER FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  LOWELL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN\r\nDEVELOPING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THIS SHOULD TURN LOWELL TOWARD THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTHEAST.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS\r\nMAJOR DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST LOWELL WILL MOVE AFTER RECURVATURE.\r\nTHE HWRF...LBAR...AND BAMD MOVE THE STORM VERY RAPIDLY...WITH 120 HR\r\nPOSITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nGFS AND BAMS KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA THROUGH 120 HR.  THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BAMS AND\r\nBAMD MODELS IS STILL STRIKING AND SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nLOWELL COULD SHEAR APART AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nSLOW-MOTION COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING LOWELL\r\nSLOWLY RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nPENINSULA IN 72-96 HR.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nAS BEFORE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO\r\nDIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOUR.  HOWEVER...LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...AND\r\nTHIS REDUCES THE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASES.  AFTER RECURVATURE...LOWELL MAY FIND WARMER WATER...BUT\r\nIS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON A SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING ...WITH THE\r\nINTENSITIES HELD A LITTLE ABOVE ALL THE GUIDANCE.  AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO WOULD BE FOR LOWELL TO SHEAR APART AFTER 48 HR...WHICH\r\nWOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 19.8N 112.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.4N 112.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.2N 113.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 22.1N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 23.1N 113.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W    35 KT...NEAR BAJA COAST\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 25.5N 111.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 26.5N 110.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 08 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OBLIGATORY EVENING CONVECTIVE BURST HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIKE IT HAS THIS TIME THE PAST 2 DAYS...\r\nEXCEPT THIS EVENING A CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THIS CURVED BAND PATTERN HAS YIELDED AN OFFICIAL DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHEREAS A\r\nSHEAR PATTERN YIELDS A DATA T-NUMBER OF T3.5/55 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO T-NUMBER ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07. IT APPEARS THAT THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED OF LOWELL HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH IS IN\r\nLINE WITH WHAT THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING\r\nTHE PAST 2 DAYS. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP\r\nSOUTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nLOWELL BY 24-36 HOURS. A WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE\r\nRIDGE AXIS ALLOWING LOWELL TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RIDGE AND\r\nEVENTUALLY RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS TRACK SCENARIO EVOLVING THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT THEN DIVERGE\r\nIN BOTH TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. IF LOWELL IS AS WEAK AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE TIME IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET STRIPPED AWAY BY THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN AND BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE PACIFIC. AS A MINIMUM...\r\nHOWEVER...THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WILL\r\nKEEP THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM RACING NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN\r\nMINNESOTA LIKE THE HWRF MODEL IS PREDICTING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO EVENINGS...A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. LAST NIGHT'S INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WAS\r\nDISRUPTED BY ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR CREATED BY EASTERLY OUTFLOW\r\nEMANATING FROM A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPED\r\nALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF LOWELL. THE FEATURE\r\nTHAT TRIGGERED THAT MCS HAS SINCE MOVED NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA AND SHOULD NOT BE A FACTOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...DESPITE\r\nWEAKENING SHEAR CONDITIONS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS...ALONG WITH\r\nVERY MOIST MID-TROPOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...THE STATISTICAL SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL AND THE VARIOUS DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ALL PREDICTING\r\nLOWELL WILL WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND...BUT\r\nREMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH DISSIPATES\r\nLOWELL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 20.2N 112.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.9N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 21.7N 113.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 22.7N 113.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 23.7N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 24.9N 111.8W    35 KT...INLAND OVER SRN BAJA\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W    30 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 27.3N 109.9W    30 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF LOWELL REMAINS THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0100 AND 0600 UTC\r\nCONFIRMS THAT THE CENTER OF LOWELL IS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 0120 UTC REVEALED A\r\nCOUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS.  BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS SINCE THE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEGRADED\r\nSINCE THE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE PERFORMED.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LOWELL CONTINUES MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...BUT AT A LITTLE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY APPROACHING THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN LOWELL TO THE \r\nNORTH...THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN\r\nQUESTION IS HOW DEEP OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL WILL REMAIN\r\nDURING THIS TIME.   THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL KEEP LOWELL A DEEP\r\nENOUGH SYSTEM THAT IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA AND INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  HOWEVER...IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT LOWELL WILL WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY...AND NOT FEEL AS MUCH\r\nINFLUENCE FROM THE TROUGH.  FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSOMEWHAT BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUALLY WEAKENING OF LOWELL\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH PREDICTS THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN AS\r\nTHE RESULT OF CONTINUED SHEAR...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 20.7N 112.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 21.4N 113.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 22.4N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 23.3N 112.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 24.4N 112.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PAST 6-12\r\nHOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.   LOWELL IS ENCOUNTERING\r\nA LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND THERE IS SOME STABLE AIR TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THUS FORECAST IN LINE WITH THE\r\nDECAY SHIPS MODEL.  IF LOWELL CANNOT GENERATE NEW CONVECTION...\r\nWEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST. IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...WHATS\r\nLEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA\r\nRESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING.  FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH\r\n96 HOURS FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE CYCLONE CAN\r\nSURVIVE THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING THE CYCLONE...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 21.0N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 22.4N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 23.4N 112.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 24.7N 111.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 26.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 29.0N 110.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n \r\nLOWELL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE MOST RECENT OF WHICH BEGAN AROUND 1400 UTC. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT BUT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT SINCE CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO\r\nWEAKEN.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUDS...INDICATIVE OF STABLE AIR...TO THE WEST OF LOWELL. \r\nTHIS...COUPLED WITH SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS\r\nSPLIT AS TO WHETHER LOWELL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT\r\nREACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LOWELL\r\nWEAKENING JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SINCE THE INTENSITY PROBABILITIES STILL\r\nINDICATE A 26 PERCENT CHANCE THAT LOWELL WILL BE A TROPICAL STORM\r\nAT LANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS\r\nOF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  AFTER CROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA...WHAT'S\r\nLEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  FORECAST\r\nPOINTS ARE GIVEN THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE\r\nCYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THAT LONG.\r\n \r\nLOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT A 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE\r\nYIELDS 320/03.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nTONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  IN FACT...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST A NORTHWARD MOTION MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.  TRACK MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  THE\r\nFASTEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THE UKMET...ACTUALLY SHOWS LOWELL\r\nREACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS\r\nMODEL...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE BUT\r\nIS STILL SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 20.9N 113.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 21.7N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 22.8N 112.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 23.9N 111.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N 110.6W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 27.0N 110.0W    20 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 09 2008\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUE TO FORM IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED CIRRUS CANOPY HAS\r\nSPREAD EASTWARD AND HAS OBSCURED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...BUT DATA T-NUMBERS ARE T2.0/30 KT. HOWEVER...LOW-CLOUD\r\nELEMENTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE HAVE BEEN MOVING AT 35-40 KT...\r\nSO THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON\r\nTHE ASSUMPTION THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST WITHIN THE\r\nCONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/05. IT APPEARS THAT LOWELL IS NOW\r\nPASSING ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH\r\nCONTINUES TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nARE BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE WEAK OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN...WHICH MEANS THAT GRADUAL RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nSHOULD BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24-36 HOURS...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLOWELL HAS BEEN INGESTING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH HAS BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ALSO PASSING OVER THE COOLEST WATER ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK. VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. SINCE LOWELL\r\nWILL BE MOVING RELATIVELY SLOWLY OVER SSTS THAT INCREASE TO NEAR\r\n28C...SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS...AND FOR THIS REASON THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT\r\n35 KT FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 21.3N 113.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 22.2N 112.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 23.3N 111.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 24.4N 110.9W    30 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N 110.2W    25 KT...OVER GULF OF CALIF\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 27.3N 109.9W    20 KT...INLAND OVER MEXICO\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\nLOWELL HAS BEEN PRODUCED SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT EACH BURST HAS BEEN SMALLER IN BOTH AREAL\r\nCOVERAGE AND DURATION.  IN FACT...THE CYCLONE BECAME CONVECTION\r\nFREE FOR A SHORT TIME AROUND 0500 UTC.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC\r\nWAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF\r\nLOWELL.  THE ASCAT DATA REVEALED 25 TO PERHAPS 30 KT WINDS. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KT...\r\nWHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES \r\nON GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LOWELL COULD\r\nREGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WHILE OVER SSTS OF 26-27 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS.  ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nLOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 24-36 HOURS...THEN INTO\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SOLUTION AND IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  SINCE LOWELL HAS BECOME A WEAKER AND MORE\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN GUIDANCE INDICATES SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MORE\r\nVERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT FORECAST...IT IS BEST TO KEEP\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT\r\nLOWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS \r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 22.7N 112.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 23.8N 111.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 25.2N 110.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 26.7N 110.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N 109.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\nLOWELL'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE...AND\r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER SLOPPY LOOKING SYSTEM.   \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT\r\nDISORGANIZED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY HELD AT\r\n30 KT.  LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN\r\n12-24 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE\r\nBLOCKED BY THE MOUNTAINS WHILE THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE\r\nLOWELL TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW. \r\n \r\nLOWELL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING THE\r\nCYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT OR\r\nEARLY THURSDAY.  THEREAFTER...WHAT'S LEFT OF LOWELL IS FORECAST TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND MOVE INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LOWELL WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS\r\nTHE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...ESPECIALLY NEAR MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 22.3N 112.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N 111.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 24.3N 110.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N 109.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N 109.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\nLOWELL IS A PERSISTENT CYCLONE AS IT CONTINUES TO GENERATE\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  A 1342 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nINDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS REMAINS NEAR 30 KT SO THIS WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. LOWELL WILL BE\r\nCROSSING THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND LAND\r\nINTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY CAUSE LOWELL TO WEAKEN.  IN\r\nFACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BECOME DETACHED FROM THE\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION RESULTING IN DEGENERATION INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF LOWELL WILL BE\r\nMOVING INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WHERE THE TERRAIN IS QUITE HIGH. \r\nREGARDLESS OF LOWELL'S STATUS AT THAT TIME...MOISTURE FROM THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD GENERATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.  \r\n \r\nLOWELL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n035/06.  TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF LOWELL STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH IS LOW...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nFOR THE BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL LOWELL PASSES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 22.8N 111.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 23.8N 111.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 25.4N 110.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 27.4N 109.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH LOWELL TONIGHT.  THERE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE A LARGE FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...OTHERWISE THE MAJORITY OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS RATHER\r\nSKELETAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN\r\nADDITION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD HELP FINISH OFF\r\nWHATEVER IS LEFT OF LOWELL OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nLOWELL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n045/7...THOUGH THIS IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nEITHER NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH...ASSUMING IT REMAINS A COHERENT SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TOTALLY DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...IT IS POSSIBLE LOWELL COULD TAKE A RIGHT TURN AND BE WELL\r\nSOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE GFDL\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF LOWELL STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH IS LOW...IT IS BEST TO CONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nFOR THE BAJA PENINSULA UNTIL LOWELL PASSES.  THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND\r\nMUD SLIDES IN HIGHER TERRAIN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 23.1N 111.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 24.2N 110.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 25.9N 109.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT LOWELL HAS DECOUPLED THIS MORNING.  THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CENTER AND REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MOVING\r\nINTO MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING OVER\r\nTHE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.  SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO AROUND 25 KT.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA IS DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS \r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE LOWELL IS QUICKLY\r\nBECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE FORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD\r\nPERSISTENCE AND THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK.  THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF\r\nHIGHER TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 23.3N 110.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 26.2N 108.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOWELL'S\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS MADE A JOG TO THE EAST AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE MOUNTAIN RANGE OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND\r\nHAS NOW EMERGED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG\r\nCONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -86C HAVE DEVELOPED OVER AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...INDICATING THAT LOWELL MAKE HANG ON AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT\r\nAND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...THE\r\nSTANDARD GUST DIFFERENTIAL WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT DUE TO THE STRONG\r\nCONVECTION THAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/09. ONCE LOWELL COMPLETELY CLEARS\r\nTHE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA...THOSE MINOR STEERING EFFECTS SHOULD BE\r\nELIMINATED AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A BASE COURSE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THAT AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE STATE OF\r\nSINALOA IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND\r\nOF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RELATIVELY NARROW WIDTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND\r\nLOWELL'S FORWARD SPEED...THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR ANY STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND EVEN THEN IT IS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT LOWELL WOULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS. HOWEVER...THE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THAT HAS\r\nDEVELOPED COULD EASILY PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE.\r\n\r\nTHE BIGGEST THREAT WITH LOWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nAREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 23.8N 109.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 25.0N 108.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 26.5N 108.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE LOWELL'S\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE GULF\r\nOF CALIFORNIA. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT A SECOND MID-LEVEL\r\nOR LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE LOCATED FARTHER UP THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO NEAR 26.5N 109.5W. THIS ALL STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nLOWELL IS QUICKLY LOSING STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB...BUT THE ADVISORY IS BEING HELD LOWER AT 25 KT DUE TO\r\nTHE LINEAR/SQUALL LINE APPEARANCE OF THE CONVECTION. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10. LOWELL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND MOVE\r\nINLAND OVER THE STATE OF SINALOA IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nRAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN THE NEXT 6 HORUS OR SO ONCE LOWELL\r\nMOVES INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO. HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE...LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES WILL REMAIN A\r\nTHREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 24.9N 108.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 26.5N 108.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lowell","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP132008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132008\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF LOWELL\r\nHAS BECOME SO STRETCHED AND POORLY-DEFINED THAT IT NO LONGER MEETS\r\nTHE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE ONLY THREAT WITH LOWELL\r\nIS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 26.0N 109.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA SHOWED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS OF 25-30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WITH RAIN-CONTAMINATED WINDS OF UP TO 45 KT SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n30 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT\r\n20 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND AS A RESULT THE CENTER\r\nIS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHICH\r\nSHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WITH A\r\nBREAK DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE\r\nPATTERN...THEY DIVERGE ON THE TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nGFS...HWRF...AND GFDL KEEP ENOUGH RIDGE BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE\r\nTROUGH FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE WESTWARD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nLBAR...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CREATE A BIG ENOUGH BREAK TO TURN\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME\r\nWHICH OF THESE TWO OPTIONS IS MOST LIKELY TO HAPPEN.  THUS...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AFTER 48 HR CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO DIMINISH DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE MAIN\r\nLIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...REACHING THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM BY DAY 5.  NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEYOND ABOUT 50 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE PUZZLING SINCE\r\nTHE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO DECREASE WHILE THE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER\r\nWARM WATER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL THROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN SHIPS DUE\r\nTO THE COOLING SSTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 16.3N 115.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 17.0N 116.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 17.7N 118.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.1N 119.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.1N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 124.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 01 2008\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nDEPICT AN INCREASE IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S ORGANIZATION...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER JUST BENEATH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 0524Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AT LEAST 35 KT\r\nWINDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION\r\nRESIDES. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.0 FROM BOTH\r\nAGENCIES WHICH SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45\r\nKT. EASTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nDIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND REFLECTED IN THE SHIPS ANALYSIS. CONSEQUENTLY...MARIE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE STRENGTHENING BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS IN\r\nAROUND 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nTHE LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nMARIE IS MOVING AT 310/8 AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nMARIE WILL ONLY SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE FORWARD SPEED...AND WILL NOT\r\nINDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN AS INDICATED BY THE NOGAPS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FAVORS THE FORMER SCENARIO. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 17.1N 116.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.8N 117.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.2N 118.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.4N 120.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 121.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N 125.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 18.5N 126.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2008\r\n \r\nA MICROWAVE PASS AROUND 1430Z INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED AT 18Z AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD\r\nALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE MARIE REACHES SUB-26C WATERS. \r\nSINCE THE WATERS ARE ALREADY FAIRLY COOL...ONLY MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE.  THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE A LITTLE LOWER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9...ALTHOUGH THIS ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN\r\nSINCE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOT APPARENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT STEERING\r\nFLOW.  AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST\r\nLIFTS OUT...RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nTURN IT WESTWARD.  THE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND THE SLOWER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND\r\nNOGAPS...KEEP MARIE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BASICALLY STALL WHEN A\r\nSECOND TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES IN ABOUT 5\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE MORE\r\nWESTWARD SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...UKMET...GFDL AND\r\nHWRF. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 17.8N 117.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.3N 118.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.7N 119.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 18.9N 120.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 18.9N 121.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N 125.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 18.5N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2008\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE IS \r\nLOCATED FURTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nDECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE.  THE ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME BELIEVABLE\r\n40-45 WINDS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN T3.0...THEREFORE\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nSINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER MARIE HAS ACCELERATED\r\nDURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS OR IF THE CENTER HAS REFORMED CLOSER THE\r\nCONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14 KT.  \r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS\r\nA RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHERE REMAINS...HOWEVER...A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAS TO THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED OF MARIE.  THE ECMWF...AND NOGAPS\r\nSHOW A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE RECENT FASTER TREND...THE NEW FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE\r\nFIRST DAY OR SO.  THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFS...HWRF...GFDL...AND 12Z UKMET.\r\n   \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND MARIE IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS. \r\nTHEREFORE...MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THIS\r\nTIME-FRAME. THEREAFTER...MARIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 18.0N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.4N 120.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 18.6N 121.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 18.7N 123.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 18.6N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N 125.3W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.3N 127.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 18.3N 129.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2008\r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF MARIE IS EXPOSED\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW CIRRUS. \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT\r\n15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.  WHILE\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nTHE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO A TONGUE OF STABLE STRATUS\r\nCLOUDS SEEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 45 KT...AND THIS REMAINS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED...\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE\r\nU. S. WEST COAST...AND THIS IS LIKELY WEAKENING THE RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nMARIE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS LAST NIGHT.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE TROUGH IS NOT DIGGING SOUTHWARD ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH THE HWRF...GFS...\r\nAND BAMD SHOWING A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION WHILE THE NOGAPS AND THE\r\nUKMET SHOW A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION.  THERE IS ALSO SPREAD IN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE RATHER SLOW ECMWF AND GFDN...AND THE\r\nFASTER UKMET AND HWRF.  GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nNOGAPS AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nMARIE IS MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nSHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS WITH THE CENTER\r\nOVER 25-26C SSTS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO\r\nMODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE SUGGESTS THAT STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS MAY ALREADY\r\nBE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO FORECAST SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  BASED ON THIS AND THE UPCOMING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  AN\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT MARIE HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY\r\nAND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN FROM THIS TIME ON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 18.0N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.2N 121.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 18.3N 122.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.2N 123.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.1N 124.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 18.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2008\r\n \r\nA TRMM PASS AT 10Z HELPED FIX THE CENTER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS COOLED AND EXPANDED SOMEWHAT OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL 45\r\nKT...BUT A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z DIDN'T SHOW ANY WINDS\r\nABOVE 30 KT.  EVEN ALLOWING FOR THIS INSTRUMENT'S LOW BIAS REQUIRES\r\nA SLIGHT REDUCTION OF THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE SHEAR IS NOT\r\nSTRONG...BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATERS OF AROUND 26C\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH ARE LIKELY TOO COOL TO ALLOW MUCH\r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT TOO WARM TO KILL IT OFF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8.  ONLY A WEAK RIDGE SEPARATES MARIE FROM\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA...AND A\r\nSECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THERE REMAIN SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY STALLING THE CYCLONE\r\nAND THE UKMET SHOWING THE FASTEST MOTION TO THE WEST.  THE\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH YESTERDAY AGREED WITH THE ECMWF...NOW IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE UKMET...LEAVING THE ECMWF AS AN OUTLIER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IN 36-48 HOURS WHEN THE\r\nSECOND TROUGH PASSES BY...WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHEREAFTER...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 18.0N 120.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.1N 121.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.0N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N 123.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 18.0N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE\r\nDAY...BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED ABOUT A MID-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER WAS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST...BUT THIS DISPLACEMENT MAY\r\nBE DECREASING.  A 1400 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE ABOUT 45 KT.  WIND SHEAR IS MODEST...AND THE IMPROVED\r\nBANDING SUGGESTS THAT SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WHEN THE\r\nCONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER...ALTHOUGH THE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION SHOULD LIMIT\r\nTHE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  OVER TIME...THE MARGINAL\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING\r\nTREND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/6.  A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES\r\nINTO CALIFORNIA...SO SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS POSSIBLE. \r\nIN 36-48 HOURS...ANOTHER UPPER-TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE AND SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING WITH\r\nPERHAPS A BEND TO THE RIGHT.  AS BEFORE...THE ECMWF IS RELATIVELY\r\nSLOW WHILE THE UKMET IS FASTER AND TO THE SOUTH.  AND AS\r\nBEFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 17.6N 120.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 17.6N 121.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.6N 122.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.7N 123.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2008\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OF LOW CLOUD LINES IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOWED HINTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIE MAY STILL BE\r\nOFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.\r\nWITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES...HOWEVER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nBE CERTAIN OF THIS...AND THE SYNOPTIC POSITION IS PLACED JUST\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE PRONOUNCED TURNING BASED ON CONTINUITY. \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0.\r\nTHIS SUPPORTS KEEPING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  IF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS INDEED NOW COLLOCATED WITH THE STRONG MID-LEVEL\r\nTURNING...MARIE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nMARIE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 260/6. A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND WILL ESSENTIALLY BLOCK THE\r\nWESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CAUSE A\r\nSLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  BY DAY 3...THE RIDGE WILL FINALLY\r\nMIGRATE NORTH AND EAST OF MARIE...SPURRING A SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nACCELERATION OF THE STORM THROUGH DAY 5.  ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nAGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND MARIE...THE CYCLONE MAY\r\nBE GAINING A LITTLE STRENGTH. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL...DO NOT INTENSIFY\r\nMARIE ANY HIGHER THAN 50 KT. MARIE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE WARM\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND\r\nCOULD POTENTIALLY CROSS OVER SEVERAL ALTERNATING WARM AND COLD\r\nTONGUES ALONG THAT GRADIENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING FURTHER INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT LOCATED WEST OF 120W.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AT 50 KT WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 17.6N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 17.5N 122.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 17.6N 122.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 17.9N 124.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 18.1N 126.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 18.1N 128.4W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 18.1N 131.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008\r\n\r\nMARIE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  AN SSM/IS OVERPASS\r\nAT 0329Z SHOWED CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A MID-LEVEL EYE...WITH\r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTERS WERE GETTING CLOSER TOGETHER.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.  THE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR PREVIOUSLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME LIGHT\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR...AND MARIE CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5.  MARIE IS SOUTH OF A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTH OF\r\nTHE BREAK.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THESE TROUGHS WILL\r\nNOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO AFFECT MARIE...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING MID/UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE STORM.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO\r\nBUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MARIE AFTER 36-48 HR.  BASED ON THE\r\nPATTERN AND TRENDS...MARIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...WITH THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF ERRATIC MOTION.  AFTER THAT...THE BUILDING RIDGE\r\nSHOULD STEER MARIE WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED.  SOME SPREAD IS PRESENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE GFS...HWRF... BAMD...AND BAMM\r\nMODELS CALLING FOR A FASTER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK STAYS WITH THE SLOWER\r\nGUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 120 HR.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nMARIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THUS...THE INTENSITY WILL LARGELY BE\r\nCONTROLLED BY SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  MARIE IS CURRENTLY NEAR\r\nTHE 26C ISOTHERM...WHICH IS LIKELY TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE SLOW MOTION AND A FORECAST TRACK\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE ISOTHERMS SUGGEST THAT THE SSTS WILL BE\r\nSLOW TO COOL UNDER THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR 12-24 HR...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nBEGINNING IN 36-48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN 12 HR AND A GRADUAL\r\nDECAY AFTER 36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 17.8N 121.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.7N 122.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.8N 123.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 18.0N 123.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 18.2N 124.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008\r\n\r\nMARIE IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAND IN FACT...AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM. BASED ON DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60\r\nKNOTS. THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED MAKING THE ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT THE OCEAN REMAINS MARGINAL. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE ANY TIME TODAY AND ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THEREAFTER. IN A DAY OR SO...THE OCEAN\r\nALONG MARIE'S PATH WILL BE COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nTHEN BEGIN.\r\n\r\nMARIE IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. MARIE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND AS THE RIDGE DEVELOPS...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO INDICATED BY TRACK GUIDANCE BUT\r\nMODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 2 OR 3\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 17.7N 122.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 17.8N 122.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.9N 123.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N 123.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 18.5N 124.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008\r\n \r\nOVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...AN EYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES...NORMALLY CORRESPONDING TO HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE T4.0...65 KT...FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO THAT VALUE. \r\nGENERALLY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST NEAR MARIE FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...SO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE\r\nCONTROLLED MAINLY BY THE SSTS AND ASSOCIATED ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY\r\nCHANGE.  HIGH RESOLUTION SST MAPS SUGGEST THAT MARIE IS OVER A WARM\r\nRIDGE...BUT WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN A\r\nDAY OR SO...LIKELY RESULTING IN WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A CLOSE TO THE BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nMARIE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE NEW FORECAST STILL SHOWING A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT OF MARIE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF MARIE. THIS RIDGE SHOULD THEN CAUSE A\r\nFASTER MOTION OF THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE ECMWF\r\nIS A NOTABLE OUTLIER SLOWING A MUCH SLOWER SOLUTION. IN GENERAL THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS JUST WEST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 17.6N 122.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.7N 122.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 17.9N 122.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.2N 123.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.6N 124.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 19.0N 127.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008\r\n \r\nGOES-10 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MARIE HAD A\r\nWELL-DEFINED BUT SMALL 12 NM WIDE EYE AROUND 2100 UTC...AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WAS SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO YIELD A DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION OF T4.5 AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN...HOWEVER...THE EYE\r\nHAS FILLED SOMEWHAT AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS\r\nCIRCULAR AND SQUEEZED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS.  0000 UTC DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T4.0...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 65 KT EVEN THOUGH MARIE COULD HAVE BEEN\r\nA LITTLE STRONGER FOR A SHORT TIME.\r\n \r\nMARIE HAS HIT THE BRICK WALL OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN\r\nIT AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE RECENT SHORT-TERM MOTION HAS BEEN\r\nA SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT MARIE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE\r\nTRANSLATES UP AND OVER THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STORM.  A\r\nSLIGHT ACCELERATION AND TURN TO THE WEST WILL COMMENCE AFTER 48\r\nHOURS ONCE MARIE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER TRADES.  MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY DAY 5...AT\r\nTHE TIME WHEN MARIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT JOG TO THE NORTH BUT\r\nTHEN RE-CONVENES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 72-120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWITH MARIE HAVING MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE CONTENDING WITH SELF-INDUCED COLD UPWELLING.  SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY MARGINAL AT 26C...AND THE 20C ISOTHERM...A\r\nPROXY FOR THE THERMOCLINE...IS ONLY ABOUT 50 METERS DEEP AT MARIE'S\r\nLOCATION.  THESE COLD UPWELLED WATERS MAY PROHIBIT FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nKEEPS MARIE AS A 65-KT HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME FRAME IN LINE\r\nWITH VIRTUALLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  AFTER THAT...MARIE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WILL LIKELY\r\nSTRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.  THE NHC FORECAST WEAKENS\r\nMARIE TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 4 AND A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...WHICH\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE\r\nMARIE BEFORE DAY 5.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 17.9N 122.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N 123.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 18.6N 124.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N 125.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 128.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n \r\nMARIE CONTINUES TO SHOW A POORLY-DEFINED EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THIS MORNING.  SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES ALSO\r\nSHOW THE EYE...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THE SURROUNDING EYEWALL IS\r\nERODING ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND REMAIN 65 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  ANALYSES FROM\r\nCIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT MARIE IS NOW\r\nEXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...\r\nWITH GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 005/3.  MARIE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE\r\nCENTERED TO THE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U. S. WEST COAST.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS A SMALL DEEP-LAYER RIDGE HAS FORMED BETWEEN MARIE\r\nAND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E...AND THIS FEATURE MAY BE THE\r\nCAUSE OF THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF MARIE IN 18-36\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RESUME A WESTWARD MOTION. \r\nUNTIL THEN...A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK NOW CALLS FOR A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST PART OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO SPLIT\r\nOFF AND MOVE SOUTHWARD WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nHAS MARIE MOVING MORE SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE...TURNS THE\r\nCYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  THE NOGAPS AND\r\nHWRF...WHICH HAVE A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION...SHOW THE TROUGH HAVING\r\nLITTLE IMPACT ON MARIE'S TRACK.  SINCE THE FORECAST TRACK HAS MARIE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD AT A SPEED BETWEEN THAT OF THE ABOVE-MENTIONED\r\nMODELS...IT WILL SHOW A SMALL SOUTHWARD NUDGE AFTER 96 HR.  THE\r\nTRACK AFTER 72 HR IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A LIGHT-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT NEAR MARIE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION IS TAKING THE CENTER NORTH OF THE 26C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK SUGGESTS MARIE WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER WATER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nEXPECTED.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING...\r\nAND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS MARIE WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HR...A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 96 HR...AND A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120\r\nHR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SST ISOTHERMS...SO SMALL DEVIATIONS TO THE\r\nNORTH OR SOUTH OF THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN\r\nTHE SSTS THAT MARIE ENCOUNTERS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 18.4N 122.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 18.6N 122.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 19.0N 122.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 19.3N 123.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 19.4N 124.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.5N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 19.0N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n\r\nMARIE LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A\r\nLESS CONCENTRATED CLOUD MASS NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH WEAKER DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT IN LINE WITH\r\nTAFB/SAB ESTIMATES...THOUGH THIS MAY BE A LITTLE GENEROUS AFTER\r\nLOOKING AT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES. MARIE IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND THERE ARE PLENTY OF STABLE\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALREADY WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 000/2....BUT IT IS HARD TO\r\nDETERMINE NOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED.  ONLY A SLOW\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS LONG AS MARIE REMAINS\r\nIN A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH OF MARIE\r\nON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.   LATER ON...THE\r\nCYCLONE MAY ACQUIRE A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING\r\nSTEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ASSUMES THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nNOT HAVE ENOUGH VERTICAL DEPTH TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...LIKE THE HWRF/NOGAPS/GFDN SOLUTIONS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS THE\r\nONLY MODEL YESTERDAY TO ACCURATELY FORECAST THE RECENT SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 18.4N 122.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 18.9N 122.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 19.1N 123.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 19.3N 125.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.3N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 19.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n \r\nMARIE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nDIMINISHING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD APPEARANCE IS\r\nSTARTING TO RESEMBLE A TYPICAL WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS.  A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nYIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...THE STORM SHOULD MOVE OVER RATHER COOL\r\nSSTS INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THUS...A STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MARIE WILL BECOME UNGLUED FASTER\r\nTHAN SHOWN BELOW...WHICH WOULD BE THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 000/2. \r\nBY LATE TOMORROW THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO RIDGING DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...IN TWO OR THREE DAYS...THE\r\nGFDL/ECMWF/UKMET SUGGEST THE SYSTEM COULD TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AS\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY...PERHAPS\r\nPARTIALLY DUE TO TD 15-E. OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/HWRF/\r\nNOGAPS...SHOW LESS INTERACTION AND A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION.  IN\r\nGENERAL...GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDED SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH...AND I\r\nDON'T SEE A GOOD REASON TO GO AGAINST THAT GUIDANCE AS THIS STORM\r\nHAS BEEN STUBBORN TO MOVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN\r\nAND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE UKMET.   \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 18.5N 122.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 18.7N 122.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.8N 123.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 18.9N 123.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N 127.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n \r\nMARIE IS SUCCUMBING TO THE EFFECTS OF COLDER WATER AND STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL AIR.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW- AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTERS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE...AND THE SYSTEM IS\r\nMAINTAINING ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK T AND\r\nCI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS A 45-KT ADT ESTIMATE FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS AT 0000 UTC.  DEGENERATING EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES\r\nLIKE MARIE TEND TO WEAKEN RATHER QUICKLY ONCE THEY ENCOUNTER A\r\nHOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...SINCE THEY CANNOT MAINTAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WEAKENS\r\nMARIE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT NOT QUITE AS\r\nFAST AS THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WOULD ALLOW SHOULD THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCOMPLETELY DISSIPATE.  MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n48 HOURS ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY THEN.  THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL\r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nMARIE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH ALL DAY BUT MAY BE FINALLY MAKING A\r\nSLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT 335/3. A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS MARIE'S CIRCULATION IS ADVECTED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE ECMWF...WHICH WAS THE ONLY MODEL THAT CORRECTLY ANTICIPATED THE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. ONCE\r\nMARIE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SHARP\r\nSOUTHWARD...AND IN SOME CASES SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TURN...BETWEEN\r\n72-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS DRAMATIC...BUT TRENDS\r\nTOWARD A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DISSIPATION WITHIN THE ITCZ\r\nBY DAY 5.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 18.9N 122.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 19.0N 122.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N 123.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 19.0N 124.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 18.9N 125.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 18.2N 127.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n \r\nMARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nMAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  AN AVERAGE OF THE T\r\nAND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGESTS THE INTENSITY IS NEAR 40\r\nKT.  ALTHOUGH SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT BE DECREASING\r\nANY FURTHER...MARIE IS EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT...\r\nAND THEREFORE A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY IS FORECAST...IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  THE STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING TREND WHILE THE HWRF AND\r\nGFDL SOMEWHAT SLOWER.\r\n\r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT MARIE BRIEFLY DRIFTED\r\nEASTWARD EARLIER THIS EVENING BUT MAY HAVE TURNED BACK TO THE WEST. \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS OFFICIALLY ESTIMATED AS STATIONARY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF MARIE...AND IF THE SYSTEM\r\nIS DEEP ENOUGH IT WOULD RESPOND BY TURNING WESTWARD.  AS MARIE\r\nDECAYS...HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR A TURN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST AND THEN PERHAPS BACK TO THE EAST TO THE WEST OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM NORBERT.  THE GFS SHOWS A RELATIVELY STRONG VORTEX ON A \r\nPRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK... BUT INTERESTINGLY THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN DOES NOT...AND NEARLY ALL THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 18.9N 122.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.0N 122.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 123.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N 124.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MARIE CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MINIMAL\r\nAND IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED\r\nTO 35 KT.  HOWEVER THE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WHEN AN ASCAT\r\nPASS SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS ABOUT 40 KT SO THE LATTER\r\nVALUE IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED.  SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES BENEATH MARIE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER THE STABLE AND DRY AIR THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  MARIE IS FORECAST\r\nTO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 2 DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS FORECAST...ICON.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT MARIE\r\nCOULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nAFTER THE MAINLY NORTHWARD TREK OBSERVED OVER THE PAST DAY OR\r\nSO...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD AND THE MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 270/2.  ALTHOUGH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH WOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR A DEEP TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...MARIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A DEEP SYSTEM.  IN FACT...SOME\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DECOUPLING OF MARIE WITH THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC VORTEX BEING DRAWN SOUTHWARD AND EVEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF NORBERT WHILE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTER MOVES OFF TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 18.9N 122.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.9N 122.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 18.8N 123.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 18.6N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 18.2N 125.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.7N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n\r\nMARIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF ITS CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT ALTHOUGH T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED\r\nSINCE THIS MORNING.  A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER MARIE ALSO SUPPORTED AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED USED FOR THE\r\nCURRENT ADVISORY.  MARIE IS NOT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS\r\nBUT SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR\r\nMASS...AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL LIKELY PROMOTE CONTINUED GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN\r\nINTO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND MARIE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO REMNANT\r\nLOW STATUS IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCONSENSUS...ICON.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST\r\nDRIFT...160/3.  AS MARIE WEAKENS FURTHER AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVELS...THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS ALONG 25N-30N WEST OF 120W WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE UNABLE TO PROVIDE MUCH WESTWARD STEERING.  INSTEAD...\r\nMANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT MARIE OR ITS LOW-LEVEL REMNANT\r\nBEING PULLED SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD IN THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF\r\nNORBERT.  BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY\r\nHINTS AT SUCH A TRACK BY TURNING THE CYCLONE A LITTLE MORE TO THE\r\nLEFT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME...\r\nTHERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF MARIE LEFT TO DEAL WITH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 18.8N 122.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 18.7N 123.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 18.5N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 18.3N 125.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.9N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN\r\nTO 2.0...OR 30 KT. HOWEVER...MARIE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL\r\nBURST OF DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS HAVE NOT FALLEN BELOW 35 KT. MARIE WILL BE KEPT AS A\r\n35-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW UNTIL THERE IS MORE CERTAINTY THAT IT\r\nHAS INDEED WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO INGEST INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO ITS\r\nCIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS INDICATED BY THE VARIOUS\r\nSHIPS MODEL PARAMETERS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nPERSIST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN MARIE TO A\r\nDEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36\r\nHOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM AN 1812 UTC ASCAT PASS AND 2335 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATE\r\nTHAT MARIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST\r\n12 HOURS OR SO AT 250/3. AS MARIE SPINS DOWN...IT WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nBE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALMOST EVERY DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT VORTICITY OF MARIE WILL BE DRAWN\r\nIN SOME WAY BACK TO THE EAST TOWARDS THE EXPANDING CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM NORBERT OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN AT THAT\r\nPOINT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES DISSIPATION WITHIN THE\r\nITCZ BY DAY 4. ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IT STILL LIES ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 18.5N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.4N 123.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 18.1N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 17.7N 125.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 17.2N 126.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0300Z SUGGESTED THAT MARIE WAS STILL A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH RAIN CONTAMINATION ISSUES TYPICALLY\r\nMAKE THIS DEPRESSION-STORM CALL DIFFICULT.  SINCE THAT TIME DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE LOW- AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE SEPARATING.  ALTHOUGH MARIE HAS PROBABLY\r\nWEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION...WE'LL HOLD IT AS A STORM UNTIL WE ARE A\r\nLITTLE MORE CERTAIN.  A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY WITHIN A DRY AND\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED...IN ACCORD WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES PLACED THE CENTER OF MARIE A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE PASSES TO CONFIRM THIS ESTIMATE...HOWEVER.  ALL OF\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE TAKES MARIE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEFORE TURNING\r\nWHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE EAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  IF THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE INDEED SEPARATING...\r\nTHEN MARIE MIGHT WELL MAKE LESS WESTWARD PROGRESS THAN THE GUIDANCE\r\nIS INDICATING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND LIES ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 18.5N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 18.3N 123.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.9N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.3N 125.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 16.6N 125.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 15.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marie","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n\r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS FROM ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT MARIE WAS A\r\nMARGINAL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY\r\nLITTLE DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THEN.  THEREFORE IT IS ASSUMED THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS SPUN DOWN TO DEPRESSION INTENSITY BY NOW AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE\r\nTO THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND MARIE WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/2.  MARIE IS\r\nSTILL RESPONDING...SLIGHTLY...TO THE MID-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW.  THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY AS MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS MARIE OR ITS REMNANT TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD...AND THEN BEING DRAGGED CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE FLOW\r\nTO THE WEST OF NORBERT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH\r\nDIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 18.7N 123.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 124.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 17.4N 125.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.6N 126.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 15.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marie","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n\r\nMARIE HAS LOST ITS DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.  SOME\r\nINTERMITTENT FLAREUPS OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY RE-OCCUR WITHIN THE\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM LACKS PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT CAN NO\r\nLONGER BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nTERMINATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS FROM AROUND 1400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS WERE 25 TO 30 KT.  ALLOWING FOR SOME FURTHER SPINDOWN OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SINCE THAT TIME LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25\r\nKT.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE REMAINING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST OR 280/3.  THE TRACK MODELS\r\nINSIST ON A CYCLONICALLY LOOPING MOTION WITHIN THE FLOW WEST OF\r\nNORBERT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK OF THE REMNANT LOW.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN\r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 18.9N 123.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.1N 125.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 17.3N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN FESTERING SOUTH OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS OR SO HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED\r\nENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT AND\r\nT1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS EARLIER IN THE DAY INDICATED SOME 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS\r\nOUTSIDE RAIN AREAS...AND CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nMORE CENTRALIZED SINCE THAT OVERPASS...ESPECIALLY SINCE 01Z.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AT 02 KT. ALL OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF MODEL...TAKE THE\r\nDEPRESSION SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. HWRF TAKES THE CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY DUE NORTH AND\r\nMOVES INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO IN 36-48 HOURS. THE\r\nHWRF SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO A LARGE-SCALE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS EASTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO FROM THE ATLANTIC BASIN...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FORCE\r\nTD 15-E ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS\r\nSYNOPTIC-SCALE STEERING PATTERN...ALBEIT A WEAK FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER NEAR-29C SSTS FOR ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS AND UNDER MODEST EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF 10-15\r\nKT. THEREFORE...GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND NEARLY TWICE THE ICON INTENSITY\r\nMODEL FORECAST DUE TO THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE BAMM MODEL IS INDICATING...WHICH WAS THE MODEL USED TO GENERATE\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE SLOWER FORECAST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM OVER WARMER WATER AND IN WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS\r\nLONGER THAN THE BAMM-SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 13.6N  99.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 13.7N  99.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 13.9N 100.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 14.3N 101.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 14.7N 102.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 15.3N 103.7W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 105.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS DEPICT AN EXPOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER WELL TO THE\r\nEAST OF AN ISOLATED BANDING FEATURE.  UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT\r\nINDICATES 15 TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 35 KT AND A\r\n0420Z ASCAT SWATH REVEALING A SIMILAR INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH\r\nQUADRANT SUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nIT'S INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFS IS DEVELOPING A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN 36 HOURS EAST OF THE DEPRESSION AND 20 TO 30 KT OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...APPARENTLY FROM THE CYCLONES' OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN.  THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE ALSO APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.  SINCE THERE IS NO EVIDENCE YET THAT THIS\r\nGFS-FORECAST CYCLONE IS ACTUALLY DEVELOPING...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...STRENGTHENING THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO A HURRICANE IN 4 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL BEYOND DAY 3.         \r\n  \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE A TEMPORARY EASTWARD\r\nDRIFT WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER CROSS-EQUATORIAL WESTERLY FLOW.  A\r\nLARGE AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO TO JUST NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS ALSO SUPPORTING THIS\r\nEASTWARD MOTION.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A SOUTHWEST\r\nEXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE SOUTHWEST\r\nGULF AND SOUTHERN MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH MOVING NORTHEAST\r\nOUT OF THE AREA AROUND 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD.  THIS EXPECTED CHANGE\r\nIN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN\r\nBACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SHOW A CONTINUED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALBEIT WITH A DISAGREEMENT IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHE HWRF DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER RIDGE ESTABLISHING OVER\r\nMEXICO AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nQUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE HWRF.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 13.6N  98.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 13.7N  99.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 13.8N  99.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 13.9N 100.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 14.1N 101.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONFIRMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE EAST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND. THE OVERALL\r\nCIRCULATION IS GRADUALLY IMPORVING. THE OUTFLOW IS ONLY PRESENT IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS BASED\r\nON DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nBOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE COMPLICATED. THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A COMPLEX AND WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND IT HAS\r\nBEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDING TO THE\r\nGFS...THE STEERING AND THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE\r\nCONTROLLED BY A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION. IN FACT...THE GFS ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE\r\nABSORBED BY A NEW CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE REST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE DEPRESSION AS THE ONLY CYCLONE AND MOVE\r\nIT SLOWLY WESTWARD. ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST COULD BE DEVELOPING AS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nGFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS ALL MODELS BUT THE GFS AND\r\nKEEPS THE DEPRESSION ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT I COULD BE SORRY LATER ON THAT I DID NOT\r\nFOLLOW THE RELIABLE GFS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 14.0N  99.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.1N  99.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.2N 100.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 14.5N 101.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 102.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION\r\nAND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE ONLY.  BASED ON THE BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nAS EXPRESSED THIS MORNING...BOTH INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECASTS ARE\r\nCOMPLICATED AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE UK AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A POTENTIAL\r\nTHREAT TO MEXICO EVENTUALLY. THE GFS DEVELOPS ANOTHER CYCLONE TO\r\nTHE EAST AND THE DEPRESSION BECOMES ABSORBED BY IT. EVEN THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT. THE GFDL KEEPS THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD AND THE HWRF TURNS IT NORTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. I AM\r\nSTUCK BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE SINCE I HAVE TO CHOOSE ONE OF\r\nTHESE RELIABLE MODEL SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEGUN TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS.  THE UK AND\r\nECMWF MODELS GRADUALLY DEVELOP A MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION SINCE IT LOOKS MORE\r\nREALISTIC AT THIS TIME AND BECAUSE THE NEW CYCLONE PRODUCED BY THE\r\nGFS APPEARS TO BE TOO STRONG. WE SHALL SEE.  \r\n\r\nIN ANY CASE...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR THROUGH FIVE\r\nDAYS...BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO HALT A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND ASSUMES\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT BE ABSORBED BY THE NEW GFS CYCLONE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 14.2N 100.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.3N 101.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N 103.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 104.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N 106.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 108.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS STRENGTHENED INTO\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON\r\nA DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FORM TAFB...AND\r\nA 04/1652Z ASCAT OVERPASS THAT CAME IN AFTER THE 21Z ADVISORY WAS\r\nISSUED...WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL 30- TO 34-KT WIND VECTORS IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE THAT THE TIME OF THE ASCAT OVERPASS...\r\nHOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/05. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH 96 HOURS AS NORBERT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 120 HOURS...A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nMODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HOURS AS\r\nNORBERT REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C. ALSO...AS NORBERT MOVES\r\nFARTHER WEST...THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF DRY EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE AIR\r\nCOMING FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD BE REDUCED. THEREFORE...\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND ICON\r\nINTENSITY MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE HWRF MODEL MAKES\r\nNORBERT A 102-KT MAJOR HURRICANE ON DAY 4. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO\r\nIS BEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 14.2N 100.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.4N 101.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.7N 103.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 104.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 15.4N 105.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 109.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT HAS GRADUALLY\r\nIMPROVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND \r\nSAB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  THE CENTER POSITION HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES BASED ON RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY.   THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/6.  NORBERT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG SOUTHWARD\r\nALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW NORBERT TO TURN MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.  IN GENERAL...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...BUT AT VARYING SPEEDS.  THE HWRF AND UKMET ARE FASTER\r\nAND MOVE NORBERT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN\r\n4-5 DAYS...WHILE THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS ARE SOMEWHAT SLOWER. \r\nTHE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER ON ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF\r\nTHE STORM AS IT PREDICTS SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN NORBERT AND THE\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\n00Z ECMWF AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...BUT REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AS NORBERT REMAINS OVER SSTS\r\nGREATER THAN 28C FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY CALL FOR NORBERT TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL AND MUCH\r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT THERE IS\r\nSOME POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nAS THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES THAT THE CHANCE OF A 30 KT OR\r\nGREATER INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS ABOUT 3 TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN.  \r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 14.2N 101.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.3N 102.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 14.6N 103.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 15.0N 104.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 15.4N 105.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 16.2N 108.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 110.2W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 112.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n \r\nNORBERT'S CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION WITH THE CENTER NOW SITUATED BENEATH A CDO FEATURE. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER...AT 50 KT...AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM\r\nWATERS AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. \r\nHOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS UNCLEAR WITH A\r\nSPREAD OF NEARLY 55 KT IN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS AT DAY 3. \r\nFURTHER COMPLICATING THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED THAT ARISES AT THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS NORBERT\r\nAPPROACHES COOLERS WATERS AND A STABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF 20 DEGREES\r\nNORTH LATITUDE.  GIVEN THE PRESENT TREND IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NORBERT REACHING PEAK INTENSITY SOONER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND\r\nGFDL MODELS.   \r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES RESULTING IN A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE.  SINCE THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 290/7.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH A\r\nNARROW SLIVER OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO\r\nJUST TO NORTH OF NORBERT.  THE SHORT-TERM TRACK WILL BE DICTATED BY\r\nWHETHER OR NOT THIS NARROW RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AS THE LARGER\r\nTROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN\r\nSUFFICIENT RIDGING TO THE NORTH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR 2-3 DAYS.  ONLY THE UKMET MODEL\r\nSHOWS THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ALLOWING NORBERT TO TRACK MORE\r\nTOWARDS THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.  BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...GLOBAL MODELS ALL FORECAST A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW\r\nTO FORM SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...\r\nRESULTING IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED AT\r\nTHESE EXTENDED RANGES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 14.6N 101.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 14.8N 102.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 15.2N 104.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.6N 105.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.1N 106.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1252 UTC CONFIRMED THAT NORBERT'S\r\nINTENSITY WAS NEAR 50 KT AT THAT TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT THAT VALUE SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  NORBERT IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS WITH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF FORECASTING NORBERT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WHILE\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLY LESS STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE BUT IS STILL\r\nSLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED YIELDING AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/8.  THE SHORT-TERM TRACK WILL BE GOVERNED BY\r\nA NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO TO THE\r\nNORTH OF NORBERT.  SINCE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST\r\nTHIS RIDGE TO REMAIN LARGELY IN PLACE...A CONTINUED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED.  SINCE THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS NOT DEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY...ONLY\r\nSMALL CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THE\r\nEXTENDED TIME RANGES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 14.4N 103.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 14.6N 104.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 14.9N 105.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.3N 106.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 15.9N 107.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 110.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 22.5N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WAXING AND WANING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL\r\nTREND HAS BEEN FOR IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\nHOWEVER...3-HR AVERAGE ODT/ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN T3.8 TO T3.9. \r\nALSO...THERE WAS A 05/2317Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED\r\nON A 05/2022Z AMSR OVERPASS...WHICH REVEALED A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL ALONG 14N LATITUDE. OTHER\r\nTHAN THE SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. FOR THE NEXT\r\n96 HOURS...NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD\r\nALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND INTO THE U.S. DESERT SOUTHWEST BY 120\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW NORBERT TO TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE\r\nNHC MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING NORBERT FOR MANY\r\nDAYS NOW IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT AROUND FROM THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN OVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS DURING THIS TIME...THE MID-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS MOIST. THE RESULT\r\nIS THAT ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY 1 OR 2 HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...BUT IS MUCH LOWER\r\nTHAN THE HOT-TO-TROT HWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NORBERT A 119-KT\r\nCATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. IN CONTRAST...THE USUALLY ROBUST\r\nGFDL MODEL BARELY BRINGS THE CYCLONE UP TO 70 KT IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 14.1N 103.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 14.3N 104.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 14.7N 105.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 15.1N 107.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 15.7N 108.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 17.3N 110.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.5N 112.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH NORBERT HAS CONTINUED TO \r\nGRADUALLY IMPROVE.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AN 0121 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF NORBERT IS LOCATED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT WELL\r\nWITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n55 KT...BASED ON DVORAK T3.5 OR 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. \r\n\r\nNORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 270/6.  NORBERT IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nNARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN \r\nABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE...BUT SOME OF THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SOME\r\nRUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES.  THE GFDL WHICH WAS ALONG THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT WESTWARD BACK\r\nTOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK.  THERE ALSO CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEED OF NORBERT. \r\nTHE ECMWF AND GFS ARE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND\r\nHWRF WHICH ALL BRING THE CYCLONE INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA WITHIN 5\r\nDAYS.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AT THE\r\nLONG RANGE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...AND NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT\r\nIS LOWER THAN THE VERY AGGRESSIVE HWRF MODEL.  BY 96 HOURS...NORBERT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE NEARING COOLER WATERS AND BEYOND THAT TIME...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  THEREFORE...WEAKENING\r\nIS PREDICTED AT DAYS 4-5...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW\r\nAS MUCH WEAKENING AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 14.1N 103.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 14.3N 104.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 14.6N 105.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 15.1N 107.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N 108.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 17.7N 111.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 1200 UTC SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. \r\nNORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THE HWRF MODEL\r\nREMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS NORBERT REACHING MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL SOLUTION.  BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS.  THEREFORE...SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN AT THE\r\nEXTENDED TIME RANGES.  HOWEVER...THE ULTIMATE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH\r\nNORBERT WILL BE LOCATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST...AND NORBERT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS SOONER OR LATER THAN SHOWN HERE.  \r\n\r\nNORBERT CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN IN 3-4 DAYS.  THERE ARE STILL SOME\r\nDIFFERENCES AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS BEYOND 72 HOURS WITH THE\r\nGFS MODEL NEVER GETTING NORBERT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RESPOND TO THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THE ECMWF SHOWING THE TROUGH BYPASSING\r\nNORBERT AND LEAVING IT BEHIND.   WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS CANNOT BE\r\nCOMPLETELY IGNORED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE REMAINING\r\nTRACK MODELS BY SHOWING A NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...THE FORWARD SPEED SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THOSE MODELS. THIS\r\nRESULTS IN ONLY A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 14.3N 104.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 14.5N 105.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 112.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 113.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 23.5N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT NORBERT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...AND BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED TO 60 KT AND NORBERT IS\r\nNEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST AND THE\r\nASSOCIATED REASONING ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE EARLIER PACKAGE. \r\nNORBERT IS EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO REACH AT LEAST CATEGORY ONE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE HWRF REMAINS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...ALBEIT A LITTLE\r\nWEAKER THAN BEFORE...AND SHOWS NORBERT BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE. \r\nTHE REMAINING INTENSITY MODELS ARE LOWER...AND A CONSENSUS OF THESE\r\nMODELS IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS.  THEREFORE...SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF FORWARD SPEED...AT THESE\r\nEXTENDED RANGES AND NORBERT COULD REACH LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS\r\nSOONER OR LATER THAN SHOWN HERE.  \r\n \r\nNORBERT CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING OR 290/7. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 2 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD\r\nTURN IN 3-4 DAYS.  THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE\r\nVARIOUS TRACK MODELS BEYOND 72 HOURS AND THE MODELS HAVE NOT\r\nDEMONSTRATED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.  THE GFS REMAINS THE\r\nSOUTHERN OUTLIER AND NEVER GETS NORBERT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO RESPOND\r\nTO THE TROUGH.  CONVERSELY...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW NORBERT\r\nACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 14.5N 105.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.7N 106.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 15.1N 107.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.7N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 110.4W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N 112.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 21.0N 113.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2008\r\n \r\nNORBERT HAS BEEN PRODUCING A SOLID MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT T4.0...AND THE ADT\r\nESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ALSO NEAR T4.0. A COMPARISON OF 91 AND 37\r\nGHZ CHANNELS FROM A 0003 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION MAY BE TILTED A LITTLE WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT DUE TO\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT AN EYEWALL HAS DEVELOPED\r\nAROUND THE CENTER. THEREFORE...NORBERT IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE\r\nWITH 65-KT WINDS.\r\n\r\nNORBERT HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 285/7. THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW NORBERT MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO...THEN TURNING NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5. MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nARE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW THE DISTURBANCE NEAR THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR BECOMING THE\r\nDOMINANT CIRCULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DOWNPLAYS THE\r\nEXISTENCE OF NORBERT. SINCE THAT SOLUTION HAS BEEN WRONG FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...THE GFS IS DISCOUNTED IN THIS FORECAST. THE HWRF HAS\r\nALSO BEEN DISCOUNTED SINCE IT SHOWS A WIDER AND FASTER SWING AROUND\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM TO WESTERN TEXAS BY DAY\r\n5. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nOTHER MODELS...AND IS JUST A LITTLE BIT EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE\r\nNORBERT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AXIS...SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING\r\nTHAT TIME FRAME. THIS IS MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS. HOWEVER...SHIPS BEGINS TO WEAKEN NORBERT BY 72 HOURS\r\nDUE TO THE IDIOSYNCRASIES OF THE GFS AND ITS OVERLY ENTHUSIASTIC\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE OTHER DISTURBANCE. DISREGARDING THAT\r\nCONTRIBUTION IN THE SHIPS MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS\r\nNORBERT AT 80 KT AT DAY 3. THEREAFTER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE AS NORBERT IS PICKED UP BY A LARGE UPPER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD ENSUE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 14.7N 105.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 15.0N 106.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 15.4N 108.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 15.9N 109.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.6N 110.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 112.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W    60 KT...INLAND BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED A FEW HOURS AGO...THE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE CENTER\r\nOF NORBERT.  HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS NOT DETECTED\r\nAN EYE FEATURE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT\r\nFROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT.\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW\r\nFOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE LOWER\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE ROBUST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE EXACT TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE AS TO THE SSTS\r\nTHAT NORBERT CROSSES OVER.  THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS NORBERT OVER\r\n27 DEGREE SSTS...SO ONLY A LITTLE WEAKENING IS INDICATED MAINLY DUE\r\nTO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NORBERT HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT JOG\r\nTO THE RIGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/7.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STEER IT\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORBERT NORTHWARD\r\nAT THAT TIME.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE TROUGH\r\nWILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PICK UP NORBERT AND TURN IT NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE TROUGH\r\nBY-PASSING NORBERT...WHILE THE GFS PREDICTS A VERY UNLIKELY\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC.  WHILE LOW WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON\r\nTHESE LATTER SOLUTIONS...THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nHAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON THE FORWARD SPEED ON NORBERT IN THE\r\n3-5 DAY TIME FRAME.  THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...WHICH\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 15.1N 106.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.6N 110.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 111.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.8N 113.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 26.0N 110.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n \r\nNORBERT'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE\r\nAND EVIDENCE OF BANDING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT WHICH IS BETWEEN DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NORBERT SHOULD REMAIN IN A\r\nWEAK SHEAR...WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS SO\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  THE HWRF MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MOST\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BEING MUCH LOWER.\r\nONE OF THE INHIBITING FACTORS IN THE LATTER TWO STATISTICAL/\r\nDYNAMICAL TECHNIQUES IS THE GFS VORTEX TENDENCY TERM...WHICH\r\nCOULD BE UNREALISTICALLY NEGATIVE SINCE THAT GLOBAL MODEL APPEARS\r\nTO SPIN NORBERT DOWN TOO MUCH...AND SPIN UP A SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF\r\nNORBERT TOO MUCH...IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290/7. \r\nOUR TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY PACKAGE.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO SHOW NORBERT TURNING NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO A ROBUST MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER NOT ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CARRY NORBERT OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  FOR\r\nEXAMPLE THE HIGHLY-REGARDED ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS THE TROUGH MISSING\r\nNORBERT AND SHOWS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WANDERING OFF TO THE WEST\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 15.3N 107.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 15.7N 108.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 16.3N 109.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 17.1N 111.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 112.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 113.4W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 23.5N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 26.0N 110.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n\r\nNORBERT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS SUGGESTED BY THE INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE HINTS OF AN EYE ON\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES.  AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM 1513 UTC SHOWED A BANDING-\r\nTYPE...PARTIALLY-CLOSED...EYE.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT\r\nIN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. \r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL-DEFINED OVER MOST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD REMAIN IN A WARM WATER AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR THE NEAR FUTURE.  MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS BEING THE MOST\r\nAGGRESSIVE.  ALSO...THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION\r\nTHAN EARLIER RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY\r\nBRINGS NORBERT TO CATEGORY TWO STATUS...BUT IT IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINDUCE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nNORBERT HAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 285/8.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS BASICALLY THE SAME.  IN 2-3 DAYS...NORBERT IS\r\nPREDICTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nAFTERWARDS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS 500 MB TROUGH\r\nTHAT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AS WAS THE CASE ON\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...NOT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BRING\r\nNORBERT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  NOTABLY...THE\r\nGFS WEAKENS NORBERT CONSIDERABLY SO THAT IT DOES NOT RESPOND TO THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING...RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED\r\nSOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF A\r\nSTRENGTHENING CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF NORBERT.  WHETHER OR NOT THE\r\nEASTERN SYSTEM ENDS UP DEVELOPING...THE WEAKENING OF NORBERT\r\nDEPICTED BY THE GFS SEEMS UNREALISTIC.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS IN THIS CASE.  THIS REPRESENTS ONLY A\r\nSLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nIT IS PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY HAVE ON BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 15.2N 108.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.5N 109.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.1N 110.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N 112.1W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N 113.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 21.0N 113.7W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W    75 KT...ON COAST\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 28.0N 110.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2008\r\n\r\nRECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT NORBERT HAS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE AND A CLOSED EYEWALL.  THE EYE HAS\r\nOCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOMING MORE DISTINCT WITH TIME.  THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS\r\nEXCEED -80C IN SOME AREAS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST SEVERAL ADVISORIES.  NORBERT IS\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT WATERS BY 72-96\r\nHR.  MOST TRACK GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS TROUGH TO BE STRONG ENOUGH\r\nTO RECURVE NORBERT NORTHEASTWARD INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE TWO OUTSTANDING OUTLIERS IN THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF...WHICH FORECAST NORBERT TO MISS CONNECTIONS WITH THE\r\nTROUGH AND TURN WESTWARD.  IN THE CASE OF THE GFS...IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE MODEL SHEARS THE HURRICANE APART...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THE\r\nTROUGH OUT BEFORE NORBERT CAN REACH IT.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE SCENARIO OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR\r\nNORBERT TO TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH BY 72 HR...AND\r\nTHEN CROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 72 HR...BUT IS MUCH SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE NOGAPS...HWRF...GFDL...AND GFDN.  OVERALL THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND TCON CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY.  NORBERT SHOULD BE IN A\r\nLIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 60 HR OR SO...AND OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C OR HIGHER FOR 48 HR OR SO.  THIS...\r\nCOMBINED WITH THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND COLD CLOUD TOPS...SUGGESTS\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  INDEED...THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 35 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF 25 KT STRENGTHENING IN 24 HR...AND A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF\r\n35 KT STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nCALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO PEAK AT ABOUT 105 KT INTENSITY IN 36 HR\r\nOR SO...A LESS THAN RAPID INCREASE.  THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE\r\nHWRF...WHICH FORECASTS NORBERT TO REACH CATEGORY 4 STATUS.  BASED\r\nON CURRENT TRENDS... THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR NORBERT\r\nTO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT IN\r\n24-36 HR.  HOWEVER...IT WOULD BE NO SURPRISE IF IT GOT STRONGER. \r\nAFTER 48-60 HR...NORBERT SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA.  NORBERT SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nRAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nWHILE IT IS STILL PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY\r\nHAVE ON BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTERESTS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nSOUTHERN PENINSULA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 15.7N 109.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 16.1N 110.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 16.9N 111.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 17.8N 112.6W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 19.1N 113.4W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 22.5N 113.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N 108.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008\r\n \r\nNORBERT HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALES AND\r\nOBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 100 KT. THIS MAKES NORBERT A CATEGORY\r\nTHREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...THE SECOND\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2008 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\nGIVEN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND THE WARM SSTS...NORBERT\r\nCOULD REACH CATEGORY FOUR STATUS AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nRESULTING IN WEAKENING. NEVERTHELESS...NORBERT COULD APPROACH BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AS A CATEGORY TWO OR THREE HURRICANE.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT\r\n9 KNOTS AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nIN A DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS\r\nA BROAD MID LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND ADJACENT PACIFIC. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS\r\nSOLUTION BRINGING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE LARGEST DIFFERENCE IS BEYOND 72 HOURS WHEN\r\nBOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF EITHER DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OR KEEP IT\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY VERY CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE REST OF THE\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS NORBERT ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN\r\nTOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SO\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONE CANNOT RULE OUT THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.   \r\n\r\nWHILE IT IS STILL PREMATURE TO SAY WHAT KIND OF IMPACT NORBERT MAY\r\nHAVE ON BAJA CALIFORNIA...INTERESTS IN THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nSOUTHERN PENINSULA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORBERT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 16.1N 110.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 16.7N 111.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 112.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N 113.0W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N 113.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 27.5N 110.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 31.5N 107.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 08 2008\r\n \r\nNORBERT UNDERWENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nNOW HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONSISTING OF A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 102 KT AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES NEAR 125 KT.  WITH THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE LARGELY CONTROLLED BY THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION\r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM.  FORECASTING SUCH INNER-CORE CHANGES IS\r\nDIFFICULT BUT GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT NORBERT COULD GET A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER...PERHAPS REACHING CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH.  IN ABOUT 36-48\r\nHOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SSTS GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. ADDITIONALLY...NORBERT COULD BE\r\nNEGATIVELY IMPACTED BY RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST.\r\nSTILL...NORBERT COULD APPROACH BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE...AND\r\nINTERESTS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nNORBERT CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING...\r\nOR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED\r\nAS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND ADJACENT PACIFIC.  WHILE ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TROUGH TO DEVELOP...THEY DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON\r\nNORBERT'S STRENGTH...AND HENCE ITS VERTICAL DEPTH...WHEN IT REACHES\r\nTHE TROUGH.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL SHOW A DEEP CYCLONE RESPONDING\r\nTO THE TROUGH BY ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS STILL SHOW NORBERT RAPIDLY\r\nBECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA RESULTING\r\nIN A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OR EVEN STALLING IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  SINCE THESE HIGHLY-RESPECTED MODELS CANNOT BE\r\nIGNORED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY 4.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 16.3N 110.6W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 16.8N 111.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 17.7N 112.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 19.0N 113.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 20.6N 113.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N 107.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008\r\n \r\nNORBERT IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING HURRICANE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS SURROUNDING A RATHER SYMMETRIC 30-35 NM WIDE EYE.  A 1709 UTC\r\nAMSU OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT NORBERT MAY BE ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...BUT THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY TO CORROBORATE THIS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS T6.0 OR 115 KT...WHICH\r\nIS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND INTENSITY CHANGES DURING THIS TIME WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DETERMINED BY INNER-CORE STRUCTURE...WHICH IS TYPICALLY \r\nDIFFICULT TO PREDICT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME\r\nSLIGHT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. THEREAFTER\r\nNORBERT WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INITIATE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO\r\nDETERMINE HOW STRONG NORBERT WILL BE WHEN IT APPROACHES THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  IF NORBERT MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AND TRACKS WEST OF THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST IT WOULD SPEND MORE TIME OVER COOLER WATERS...\r\nTHAN A FASTER AND MORE EASTWARD TRACK.  IN ADDITION TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST DILEMMA...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE\r\nAROUND THE TIME NORBERT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. GIVEN THESE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AND IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF MODEL\r\nWHICH KEEPS NORBERT RATHER STRONG UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.\r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS THE SAME AS EARLIER TODAY...290/8 KT. THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD COMMENCE SOON...AS NORBERT BEGINS TO ROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  THEREAFTER...NORBERT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD...THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...THERE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY LARGE SPREAD ON THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...AT 72\r\nHOURS...THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDN...AND UKMET ALL SHOW NORBERT NEAR OR\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA COAST...WHILE THE GFDL...HWRF AND NOGAPS\r\nPREDICT THAT NORBERT WILL BE OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AT THAT TIME. \r\nSOME OF THESE DIFFERENCE ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HOW STRONG OR\r\nDEEP THE VARIOUS MODELS KEEP NORBERT.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD...THE\r\nNHC FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS UNTIL IT IS MORE\r\nCLEAR AS TO WHICH ONE OF THESE SOLUTIONS WILL PREVAIL.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED SLIGHTLY ON THE BASIS OF DATA FROM\r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 16.6N 111.2W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 17.2N 112.1W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 18.3N 113.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.7N 113.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 32.0N 106.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO DISPLAY A RATHER IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW FANNING AWAY\r\nFROM THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A\r\nLITTLE IN THE EYEWALL RECENTLY...DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nHAVEN'T CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 115 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS AND\r\nWARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHEAR IS THEN FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH AND...COMBINED WITH\r\nSOME COOLER WATERS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES\r\nLAND.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY IT WILL LOSE STRENGTH. \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA WHILE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOW A RATHER RAPID\r\nDROP OFF IN THE WINDS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SHADED A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING AT\r\nABOUT 8 KT. NORBERT IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nRIDGING OVER MEXICO.  LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH INTO A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL MODELS FORECAST A RATHER DEEP TROUGH DIVING\r\nINTO THE WESTERN USA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND...\r\nHOWEVER THERE IS A BIG DISCREPANCY ON HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE RESPONDING TO THE TROUGH.  THE CORE OF THE\r\nDIFFERENCES REALLY REVOLVES AROUND IF THE NORBERT STAYS INTACT\r\nUNDER INCREASING SHEAR.  AN INTACT SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY JUST\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT A RAPIDLY\r\nWEAKENING ONE MIGHT SHEAR APART AND LEAVE A WEAKER SYSTEM BEHIND\r\nBEFORE A MEXICAN LANDFALL...LIKE THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.  GIVEN HOW\r\nSTRONG THE SYSTEM IS NOW AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF\r\nIT...NORBERT SEEMS UNLIKELY TO WEAKEN TO THAT DEGREE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE FASTER\r\nGUIDANCE AND GIVES LESS WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS/\r\nECMWF MODELS.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 17.1N 111.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.8N 112.6W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 18.9N 113.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 113.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.5N 113.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 28.0N 109.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 35.0N 104.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE\r\nEYE CONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES BUT THE SURROUNDING RING\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED. THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES\r\nTO BE WELL ESTABLISHED. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOWS THAT EYEWALL\r\nSTRUCTURE IS LESS DEFINED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN. INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 110 KNOTS.  DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NORBERT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE OVER WARM WATERS AND WITHIN A LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DUE TO\r\nCHANGES IN THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...NORBERT IS FORECAST TO CROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A\r\nCATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BUT A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. NORBERT IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nTURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT GRADUALLY\r\nAPPROACHES A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE\r\nCORE OF THE HURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nON SATURDAY.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nBRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONLY THE GFS MODEL INSISTS ON\r\nWEAKENING THE CYCLONE WHILE KEEPING IT STATIONARY JUST TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nREALISTIC AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 17.5N 112.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 18.3N 113.2W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 114.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 28.5N 108.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 35.0N 104.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n \r\nA 0906 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT NORBERT MAY BE\r\nUNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. HOWEVER...RECENT GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTION WITHIN THE INNER EYEWALL\r\nMAKING A COMEBACK AND THE OUTER CONVECTIVE RING BECOMING LESS\r\nDISTINCT. STILL...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS THINNED...AND\r\nCI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS THE ADT HAVE FALLEN TO 5.5.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY TO 100 KT. THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE CONTROLLED BY INTERNAL DYNAMICS FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IF IN FACT NORBERT IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT. SINCE FORECAST SKILL IN THESE SCENARIOS IS NOT THAT\r\nGREAT...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT FOR THE SHORT TERM AS SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nLOW.  AFTER 36 HOURS OR SO...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS\r\nNORBERT GETS CLOSER TO THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE\r\nAPPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nNORBERT HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE BIT BUT IS MOVING AT AN AVERAGE\r\nMOTION OF 320/6.  IN GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN\r\nDURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ENDED UP\r\nA LITTLE BEHIND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ONLY THE GFS CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW NORBERT FAILING TO REACH THE BAJA PENINSULA DUE TO STRONG\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR DECOUPLING THE SYSTEM...AND LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION MEANDERING OFFSHORE.  WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS NOT OUT OF\r\nTHE QUESTION...IT HAS HAPPENED BEFORE...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO LIE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS AND STILL BRINGS\r\nNORBERT ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA TO MAINLAND MEXICO.  A 96-HOUR\r\nPOSITION IS NO LONGER GIVEN SINCE IT IS UNLIKELY THAT A LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE THE HIGH RUGGED TERRAIN OF\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS AND THE\r\nASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY DAY 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED\r\nTO INVESTIGATE NORBERT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A HURRICANE WATCH WILL\r\nLIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nLATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 18.0N 112.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 19.8N 114.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 23.1N 112.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 27.5N 109.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n \r\nSOMETIMES APPEARANCES ARE NOT WHAT THEY SEEM.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES YIELD A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 90-100 KT...THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER FLYING THROUGH NORBERT FOUND WINDS THAT WERE MUCH\r\nLOWER.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 83 KT WITHIN THE\r\nOUTER EYEWALL IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WHILE THE SFMR ONLY\r\nINDICATED WINDS NEAR 65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80\r\nKT...BUT THIS IS LIKELY GENEROUS.  DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHERE MIGHT BE A STABLE LAYER BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB THAT IS\r\nPREVENTING VERTICAL MIXING OF THE STRONG WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL WIND SPEED.  SINCE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK UP UNTIL THE\r\nBAJA COAST...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS BASED ON RECENT TRENDS.  THEREAFTER...VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NORBERT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A LITTLE\r\nFASTER.  THE 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT JUST OFFSHORE THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA STILL INDICATES NORBERT AS A HURRICANE FOR CONTINUITY\r\nALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD HAVE WEAKENED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM BY THEN.  ONCE NORBERT REACHES MAINLAND MEXICO...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE THE RUGGED TERRAIN\r\nOF THE SIERRA MADRES IN MEXICO SO NO FORECAST POINTS ARE GIVEN\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS.  STILL...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS AND ASSOCIATED\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND AFFECT\r\nPORTIONS OF NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES THROUGH DAY 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nNORBERT CONTINUES TO WOBBLE AND HAS SLOWED DOWN TO A MOTION OF\r\n320/4.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY SINCE\r\nTHIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO SHOW NORBERT MOVING NORTH THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BAJA PENINSULA IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS\r\nREMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM SO MUCH THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LEFT TO MEANDER OFFSHORE AND NOT MOVE INTO\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nWATCHES ARE NOT YET NEEDED FOR THE BAJA COAST SINCE NORBERT HAS\r\nSLOWED DOWN...BUT THEY MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 18.3N 112.9W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 18.9N 113.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 113.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 22.1N 113.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 24.1N 111.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 27.5N 109.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER-\r\nDEFINED AND A LITTLE SMALLER. IN ADDITION THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nMAINTAINED A RATHER SYMMETRIC AND WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 80 KT...THOUGH THE ESTIMATE COULD BE\r\nA LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE AS NORBERT IS CLEARLY STILL GOING THROUGH\r\nAN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT BECAUSE\r\nIT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL IF AND WHEN NORBERT WILL COMPLETE ITS\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT. IF IT DOES FINISH THE CYCLE...THE SHEAR AND\r\nWATER CONDITIONS MIGHT BE FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM\r\nTO INTENSIFY A LITTLE...LIKE THE GFDL/HWRF SHOW. ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE STATISTICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING\r\nAND WERE CERTAINLY MORE ACCURATE THAN THE GFDL/HWRF YESTERDAY. THIS\r\nWEAKENING COULD BE OVERDONE SINCE THE GFS VORTEX TENDENCY TERM IS\r\nCONTRIBUTING STRONGLY TO THE DECREASING FORECAST IN SHIPS...AND THE\r\nGFS MODEL IS WEAKENING THE HURRICANE FASTER THAN ANY OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE. FOR NOW...A SLOW WEAKENING OF NORBERT IS FORECAST...AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS...SHOWING THE SYSTEM NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS\r\nIT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THERE LIKELY WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nCOULD BE A CONCERN OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nDUE TO MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF SLOWDOWN THIS AFTERNOON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS\r\nMADE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT\r\nABOUT 6 KT.  COMPUTER GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT...SAVE\r\nTHE PESKY GFS MODEL...ON A TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY\r\nTHE WEEKEND TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP-\r\nLAYERED TROUGH.  THE SPEED DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ARE NOW\r\nLESS NOTICEABLE AND GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY BECOME MORE CLUSTERED\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 18.9N 113.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 19.9N 113.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 21.6N 113.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 23.4N 112.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 25.4N 110.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N 107.0W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF NORBERT IS STILL DISTINCT ON IR IMAGES BUT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE. THERE IS A PATCH OF STRONG\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS WITHIN A CURVED BAND ON THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nSUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE FROM NOW ON...BUT THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN WARM. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO BUT NORBERT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THEREAFTER. IT IS STILL\r\nFORECAST TO REACH BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A HURRICANE BUT A MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA.  IN\r\nFACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN THE\r\nPORTION OF THE TRACK BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nNORBERT IS RIGHT ON TRACK. IT IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF\r\nA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nSOON TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT MAINLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...\r\nINCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALL MODELS BRING THE\r\nCORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THEREAFTER...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT NORBERT WILL BECOME DECOUPLED DUE TO SHEAR AND THAT IS WHEN\r\nTHE MODELS DIFFER IN THE FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER...BY\r\nTHEN...NORBERT SHOULD BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE WITH THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER RACING NORTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM NORBERT COULD BRING\r\nRAINS TO PORTION OF WESTERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 19.7N 113.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 22.8N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 24.6N 111.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 27.5N 109.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 31.5N 105.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n \r\nA HEALTHY RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE EYE\r\nOF NORBERT...WHICH HAS SHRUNK TO 10-15 NM IN DIAMETER.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY STILL SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE TWO EYEWALLS APPROXIMATELY 15\r\nAND 50 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE\r\nACTIVITY MIGHT FINALLY ALLOW THE OUTER EYEWALL TO BECOME THE MORE\r\nDOMINANT FEATURE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nHAVE RISEN TO T5.0...OR 90 KT...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nCONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT JUST IN CASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL\r\nNOT REACHING THE SURFACE.  A BETTER JUDGMENT ON THE INTENSITY CAN\r\nBE MADE ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHES\r\nNORBERT AROUND MIDDAY.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND EVEN THE\r\nGFS NOW AGREES WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ON LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  AS\r\nSUCH...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  FORECAST POINTS ARE ONLY GIVEN THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nSINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORBERT WILL PROBABLY NOT SURVIVE A\r\nCROSSING OF THE SIERRA MADRES.  HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS\r\nAND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL STILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS\r\nUP TO LANDFALL SINCE THESE MODELS APPEAR TO BE ACCOUNTING FOR THE\r\nEXPECTED INCREASE OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS ONLY 5 KT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO\r\nTHE RECENT APPARENT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY AT 36 HOURS...\r\nAFTER NORBERT HAS CROSSED THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS OVER THE GULF\r\nOF CALIFORNIA...IS STILL AT HURRICANE STRENGTH ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS\r\nHIGH AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT THAT TIME. THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WAS NOT DESIGNATED\r\nAS A HURRICANE WARNING SINCE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY\r\nEXPECTED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...AND THESE WINDS WILL BE\r\nBLOWING OFFSHORE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 20.6N 113.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 21.9N 113.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 23.9N 112.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 26.1N 110.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 28.3N 109.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n \r\nUNFORTUNATELY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT THAT WAS\r\nSCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAD TO BE CANCELED DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT PROBLEM.\r\nNONETHELESS...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nNOW 90 KT AND 102 KT RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED CONSERVATIVELY TO 90 KT. YESTERDAY'S HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT\r\nINDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT AS STRONG AS THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE HAD SUGGESTED...SO I AM LOATH TO BRING THE\r\nINTENSITY ANY HIGHER THAN THE LOW END OF THE ESTIMATES. MICROWAVE\r\nAND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYEWALL\r\nHAS PROBABLY COLLAPSED...AND IS NOW ROTATING WITHIN THE LARGE\r\nEYE...SO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT MAY BE COMPLETE.\r\n\r\nAGAIN...THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS HAD TO BE NUDGED UPWARD TO\r\nREFLECT THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CLOSELY WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS\r\nAND SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO\r\nINCREASE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nWILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TO 30-40 KT BY 36 HOURS AND NEAR 50 KT\r\nBY 48 HOURS...SO NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT\r\nCROSSES THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NORBERT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO...BUT THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE INDICATES\r\nTHERE IS STILL A 40% CHANCE THAT IT COULD BE A HURRICANE AT THAT\r\nPOINT...SO A HURRICANE WATCH WAS REQUIRED FOR THAT AREA. RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...WITH\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING SHEARED QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PROBABLY BEING BLOCKED OR DESTROYED BY THE\r\nSIERRA MADRES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 21.4N 113.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 22.9N 113.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 24.9N 111.6W    70 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 27.1N 109.8W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 28.3N 108.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT NORBERT CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE SURROUNDED BY COLD CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL.\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NOW SHOW ONE DISTINCT EYEWALL SO THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT FROM YESTERDAY HAS BEEN COMPLETED. THERE HAVE\r\nBEEN NO CHANGES TO THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN 90 KT. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A BIT\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...HERALDING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nSOON...BUT PROBABLY NOT SOON ENOUGH TO CAUSE NORBERT TO WEAKEN MUCH\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL. A FASTER DECREASE IN STRENGTH SHOULD OCCUR\r\nTOMORROW AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WEAKENING MIGHT NOT BE\r\nFAST ENOUGH TO BRING THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO...SO A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR THAT AREA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCLERATED A BIT TO ABOUT 10 KT.  A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW DUE TO STEERING\r\nFROM A DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH DIVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.   AT\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST...THERE WON'T BE MUCH LEFT OF NORBERT BUT\r\nTHE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD\r\nBE SIGNIFICANT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 22.3N 113.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 23.9N 112.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 26.3N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 29.0N 108.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NORBERT HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND HAS RE-STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE. A 23-NMI DIAMETER ROUND EYE HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DISTINCT\r\nAND IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE NOT FAR FROM BEING CLASSIFIED\r\nAS T6.0/115 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13. NORBERT REMAINS ON TRACK...\r\nAND GRADUAL RECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED NOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS PASSED NORTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...NORBERT SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nAN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS....WHICH CALLS FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nCOAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BETWEEN BAHIA MAGDALENA AND SANTA FE.\r\n\r\nTHE BETTER DEFINED EYE...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ENCIRCLING THE\r\nEYE...IMPROVING OUTFLOW...AND SSTS NEAR 28C SUGGEST THAT NORBERT\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT MORE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING...\r\nBUT NORBERT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT\r\nMAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO TONIGHT. JUST HOW STRONG NORBERT WILL BE AT THE SECOND\r\nLANDFALL WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW STRONG IT IS WHEN IT MAKES\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE BAJA COAST THIS MORNING. \r\n \r\nAFTER NORBERT MAKES ITS SECOND LANDFALL...THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE\r\nSIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAIN RANGE SHOULD QUICKLY DECOUPLE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. ALTHOUGH\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL VORTICITY\r\nWILL BECOME STRETCHED OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS...THIS MAY BE\r\nOVERDONE GIVEN THAT NORBERT IS A STRONGER CYCLONE. AS NORBERT\r\nCROSSES NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS...\r\nITS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE ADVECTED WELL AHEAD OF THE\r\nDISSIPATING CYCLONE CIRCULATION...AND INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM IN THE REGION COULD POSSIBLY CREATE A HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nSCENARIO NOT UNLIKE THAT OF HURRICANE TICO OF 1983.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 23.5N 112.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 25.5N 111.4W    80 KT...INLAND BAJA\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.3N 109.2W    35 KT...INLAND MEXICO\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 31.5N 106.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":31,"Date":"2008-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NORBERT HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED THIS\r\nMORNING...AS THE EYE HAS FILLED IN.  THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE\r\nOF THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES.  A BLEND OF THE\r\nDVORAK DATA T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS...HOWEVER...YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90 KT...OR CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH. \r\nNORBERT IS MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST\r\nAT ABOUT 13 KT...AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE\r\nOVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MAKE A FINAL\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE ARE SOME\r\nDIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST NORBERT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND USES\r\nA BLEND OF THE DIFFERING SPEEDS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE\r\nTHE CYCLONE...BUT NORBERT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT\r\nMOVES INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO NORBERT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF NORBERT'S INTENSITY.  AFTER\r\nLANDFALL IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 24.3N 111.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N 110.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N 107.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":32,"Date":"2008-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE EYE OF NORBERT MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA AROUND 1630 UTC.  SINCE THAT TIME THE CENTER HAS\r\nTRACKED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND IT IS NOW EMERGING OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nTILTED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE EYE THAT IS SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 85 KT...BASED ON THE RECENT SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE.  A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nTHAT FLEW INTO ODILE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE\r\nA PASS THROUGH NORBERT VERY SOON...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nASSESSMENT OF THE HURRICANE'S STRENGTH.  THE CREW OF THE AIRCRAFT\r\nIS COMMENDED FOR THE LONG HOURS SPENT ATTEMPTING TO FLYING INTO\r\nBOTH EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONES TODAY.\r\n\r\nNORBERT HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST\r\nAROUND 13 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WHICH BRINGS NORBERT INTO MAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN THE\r\nHURRICANE WARNING AREA TONIGHT. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES FINAL\r\nLANDFALL...DESPITE A 12 HOUR FORECAST WHICH MUST ACCOUNT FOR\r\nWEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL.  THEREAFTER...NORBERT SHOULD WEAKEN AND\r\nDISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\nMOISTURE FROM NORBERT IS STILL FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nAND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 25.2N 110.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 27.2N 109.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N 106.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":33,"Date":"2008-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE WENT INTO NORBERT AROUND 2100 UTC AND FOUND\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 67 KT...AND AN\r\nEXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 958 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE EYE\r\nHAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT ON SATELLITE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 75 KT IN LINE WITH TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS. THE\r\nPLANE ALSO FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE WEST OF THE SATELLITE\r\nFIXES...SO I'M GOING TO LEAN A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION. RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE SYSTEM\r\nMAKES LANDFALL IN AN HOUR OR TWO...AND A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK OF\r\nNORBERT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nHIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.  MOISTURE FROM NORBERT SHOULD\r\nSPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nINCIDENTALLY...THE CIMSS ADT TECHNIQUE EARLIER ESTIMATED A PRESSURE\r\nOF 957.5 MB RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL IN BAJA...SO THAT PRESSURE\r\nESTIMATE APPEARED TO MATCH NICELY WITH THE AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 26.5N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 28.6N 107.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":34,"Date":"2008-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND MEXICAN RADARS INDICATE THAT NORBERT MADE\r\nLANDFALL AROUND 0400 UTC OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE\r\nSONORA STATE OF MEXICO WITH AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 75 KT.  NORBERT\r\nIS NOW WELL INLAND OVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STILL APPEARS\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THIS IS LIKELY\r\nSHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CIRCULATION SHOULD SPIN DOWN RAPIDLY AS IT\r\nMOVES FARTHER INLAND.  THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY\r\nDISSIPATE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM NORBERT\r\nIS ALREADY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND THE\r\nSOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS.  ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM NORBERT\r\nOR ITS REMNANTS WILL SPREAD OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NORTHEASTWARD...045/17...AS NORBERT IS CAUGHT IN\r\nTHE FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. \r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION... WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE ADDITIONAL\r\nACCELERATION...IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 27.5N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 30.5N 105.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norbert","Adv":35,"Date":"2008-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OVER NORBERT HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE THIS\r\nMORNING AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY\r\nDISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO.  A 12 HOUR\r\nFORECAST POINT IS SHOWN FOR CONTINUITY BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT \r\nTHE CIRCULATION WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON NORBERT.  THE REMNANTS OF THIS\r\nSYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S.\r\nPLAINS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 29.6N 106.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 33.0N 103.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008\r\n\r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE FAR EASTERN\r\nPART OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FOR A NUMBER OF DAYS HAS FINALLY\r\nACQUIRED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nBE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...BANDING FEATURES\r\nARE BECOMING EVIDENT.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN LINE\r\nWITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE...OF\r\nCOURSE...QUITE WARM.  HOWEVER THE LACK OF INNER CORE ORGANIZATION\r\nAND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT A\r\nLOT OF STRENGTHENING SUGGESTS THAT INTENSIFICATION WILL BE\r\nSLOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE LATTER MODEL\r\nSUGGESTS INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH COULD HALT THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS AFTER\r\nDAY 3.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO...THE SYSTEM WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD...\r\nIT HAS SINCE LOOPED BACK TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  CURRENT\r\nMOTION IS AROUND 280/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO TROUGHS OR OTHER OBVIOUS STEERING\r\nMECHANISMS TO BRING THE CENTER ASHORE ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...A\r\nFEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL IN THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK\r\nPARALLELING...BUT NOT FAR OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS\r\nIS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 12.1N  90.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 12.5N  92.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.1N  93.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 13.7N  95.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 14.3N  96.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 15.5N  98.8W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 16.5N 101.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 08 2008\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS EVENING...WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASE\r\nIN CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS A\r\n30 KT SHIP REPORT NEAR THE COAST OF GUATEMALA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY THUS REMAINS 30 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THERE IS LITTLE OUTFLOW ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nAGREEING THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  DESPITE THIS AGREEMENT...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE WELL ON\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK.  THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MOVE THE\r\nSYSTEM VERY LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING THE\r\nDEPRESSION DISSIPATING.  THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE COAST OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST TRACKS PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE HWRF SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN THE\r\nGFDL.  GIVEN THE SPREAD...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY HWRF AND THE\r\nMORE NORTHERLY GFS/ECMWF.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX\r\nATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 53 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 25 KT OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHE HWRF IS THE ONLY MODEL CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE....AND THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN IT AND THE LESS AGGRESSIVE MODELS.  THE FORECAST\r\nBECOMES VERY UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR.  THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP 45\r\nKT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE\r\nSIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE UKMET SHOWS WEAKER\r\nEASTERLIES...WHILE THE NOGAPS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CAUSING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nGIVEN THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING AFTER 96 HR.  HOWEVER...IT WILL NOT SHOW\r\nAS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE GFDL...WHICH CALLS FOR DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nTHE OUTER FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION ARE BRINGING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINS TO PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 12.2N  91.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 12.7N  93.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 13.3N  94.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 13.9N  95.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 14.4N  97.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 100.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES\r\nDEPICT IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A WELL\r\nDEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nT2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 35 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AND THE SHIPS ANALYSIS SUGGEST INCREASING EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AROUND THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO A\r\nSTRENGTHENING UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO. IN\r\nFACT...THE UKMET SHOWS THE SYSTEM'S SURFACE CIRCULATION DECOUPLING\r\nFROM THE MID-LEVEL REFLECTION AND MOVING INLAND NEAR THE GULF OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODEL/SHIPS\r\nSCENARIO WITH STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 3...THEN A WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  ODILE...OH-DEAL...IS MOVING WITHIN\r\nTHE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALLOWING THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nTO MAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK PARALLEL TO AND OFFSHORE OF\r\nTHE COAST.  A RATHER LARGE DEVIATION IN FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO\r\nBE REFLECTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nSTALLING NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE HWRF RACING TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...AND A MODEL CLUSTER OF SIMILAR SPEEDS THAT\r\nCONSISTS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE ECMWF.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS JUST\r\nA BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 12.7N  93.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 13.2N  94.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 13.7N  95.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 14.2N  97.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 15.0N  98.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N 104.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n\r\nODILE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. \r\nTHERE IS A SMALL CDO ALONG WITH A PRIMARY BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nGIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF AT LEAST 45 KT...AND THIS IS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS\r\nRESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS\r\nOUTPUT INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER ODILE\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOREOVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SOON\r\nBE PASSING OVER THE WAKE OF NORBERT...WHICH CONTAINS COOLER WATER\r\nCAUSED BY UPWELLING AND MIXING.  THEREFORE...NOTWITHSTANDING THE\r\nCURRENT TREND OF INTENSIFICATION...ODILE IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN MUCH BEYOND THE MINIMAL HURRICANE STAGE.  WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLATEST FIXES LEAD TO A MORE WESTWARD MOTION OF 280/11.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA THAT IS\r\nPREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THIS KEEPS THE CENTER FAIRLY WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST\r\nOF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAS THE STORM BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AND REMAINS OFFSHORE...THE\r\nRAINFALL THREAT FOR MEXICO IS DIMINISHING. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 12.7N  94.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 13.0N  95.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 13.8N  97.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 14.7N  99.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 104.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING...ALBEIT THE BANDING FEATURES ARE\r\nPERHAPS A LITTLE LESS PROMINENT AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE ALSO UNCHANGED.  THEREFORE THE WIND SPEED IS HELD AT\r\n45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO\r\nBE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE AFFECTING ODILE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THAT SHEAR IS\r\nPREDICTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS RUN...USING THE GFS OUTPUT...DOES NOT PREDICT THE\r\nSHEAR TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS IN THE EARLIER MODEL RUNS. \r\nSO...THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.  OF COURSE...IF ODILE WERE TO INTERACT WITH LAND THE\r\nINTENSITY EVOLUTION WOULD BE SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE.\r\n\r\nAFTER THE MORE WESTWARD MOTION NOTED THIS MORNING...THE TRACK HAS\r\nTURNED BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 290/10.  NOT MUCH ADJUSTMENT\r\nIS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD PROVIDE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nSTEERING CURRENT FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN. \r\nIN THE LATTER MODEL'S FORECAST...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nODILE IS COMPLETELY SHEARED OFF AND PROCEEDS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nNEAR THE COAST WHEREAS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LEFT BEHIND TO\r\nMEANDER AND WEAKEN NEAR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  THIS SCENARIO DOES\r\nNOT SEEM REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST NHC FORECAST...LIKE THE EARLIER ONES...KEEPS THE CENTER\r\nOFFSHORE OF THE COAST THROUGH 5 DAYS.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF AND GFDL...BRING ODILE CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nOR ONSHORE IN 3-5 DAYS.  IN THE SHORTER TIME FRAME...A SIGNIFICANT\r\nNORTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WOULD PROBABLY\r\nREQUIRE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.  INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 13.3N  95.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.9N  96.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.5N  98.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 15.4N 100.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 16.3N 102.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 21.0N 108.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 09 2008\r\n \r\nSSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY NEAR 00Z SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF ODILE\r\nWAS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION. \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE STORM IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHILE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT ORGANIZATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10...WHICH IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  ODILE IS CURRENTLY\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR OR SO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SPREAD IN\r\nBOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH THE GFS MARCHING THE SYSTEM ONTO\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST...THE HWRF KEEPING IT FARTHER OFFSHORE...AND THE\r\nUKMET SHOWING A SLOW MOTION DUE TO ODILE SHEARING APART.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH COULD CAUSE ODILE TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD IF IT MAINTAINS ANY VERTICAL INTEGRITY...AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE BAM MODELS...THE HWRF...THE NOGAPS...AND THE ECMWF.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HR...THEN\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE LESS NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nTHEREAFTER.  OVERALL THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SHEAR...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE\r\nNOT AS BULLISH ON THE SHEAR AS THE GFS/ECMWF WERE LAST NIGHT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY DOES NOT CALL FOR A LOT OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH ONLY THE HWRF FORECASTING ODILE TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY LESS\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH ODILE PEAKING JUST\r\nUNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  INTERACTION WITH LAND COULD CAUSE\r\nODILE TO BE WEAKER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE STORM EDGES\r\nCLOSER TO THE COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST OF MEXICO TO\r\nREQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 13.8N  96.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 14.3N  97.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 15.1N  99.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.0N 100.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.8N 102.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N 105.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 107.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 20.5N 109.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n \r\nA LARGE BURST OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM\r\nSAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO VALUES.\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/08. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nIN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSTEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO. MOST OF THE MODELS WEAKEN ODILE DOWN TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW OR DISSIPATE IT COMPLETELY WITHIN 48 HOURS...WHICH APPEARS TO\r\nBE EXCESSIVE SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS\r\nTHAN 20 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND AFTERWARD FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND THE EXPECTED SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN DEPICTED\r\nBY THE GFS-BASED BAMM AND BAMD MODELS.\r\n \r\nODILE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TO\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS AND OVER WARM SSTS OF 29C OR HIGHER\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS THAT HURRICANE\r\nNORBERT HAS LEFT A TRAIL OF COLD UPWELLED WATER BETWEEN ROUGHLY 14N\r\nAND 16N LATITUDE TO THE WEST OF 100W LONGITUDE. IF ODILE REMAINS\r\nJUST NORTH OF THAT COOLER WATER...BUT FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO NOT\r\nINTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO...THEN THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\n...AND THEN CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 14.2N  96.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.8N  97.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.6N  99.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.4N 101.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.3N 103.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 18.6N 105.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 19.7N 107.4W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n \r\nTWO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES PLACE THE CENTER OF ODILE JUST INSIDE\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSHOWING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE.  DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED\r\nFROM 6 HOURS AGO.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST IN SHOWS CORRECT AMBIGUITIES\r\nOF 40-45 KT...WITH PERHAPS ONE VALID VECTOR OF 45-50 KT.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION...ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH LOSES THE VORTEX ALMOST IMMEDIATELY...MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHOURS.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AFTER THAT...WITH THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF SHOWING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT WEAKENS THE\r\nSYSTEM...WHICH IS FOLLOWED BY A TURN OF THE SHALLOWER VORTEX TO THE\r\nWEST.  THE GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD EXTENTION OF THE RIDGE\r\nAFTER HURRICANE NORBERT CROSSES BAJA CALIFORNIA THAT WOULD FAVOR A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST AFTER 2-3 DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM\r\nMODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS WESTWARD TURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH AFTER THAT.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECT TO INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nONLY A VERY SMALL DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE RIGHT WOULD BRING\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONSHORE...AND THUS A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 14.4N  97.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.0N  98.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.9N 100.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N 103.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 18.5N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...BUT RECENTLY HAS INCREASED AGAIN.  THE BANDING LOOKS A\r\nLITTLE LESS IMPRESSIVE NOW THAN IT DID EARLIER IN THE DAY. \r\nOVERALL...THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANY REASON TO ALTER THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ODILE STILL HAS AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IF IT REMAINS OFFSHORE. \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  BY\r\nTHAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nAND MOST SHOW A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF RUNS SHOW EVEN MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP ODILE A HURRICANE\r\nTHROUGH 5 DAYS.  SHOULD ODILE SURVIVE THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...\r\nWATERS UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY WARM...AND SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW DECAY. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10...A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF ODILE\r\nCOULD WEAKEN JUST A BIT AS NORBERT BEGINS ITS RECURVATURE OVER THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS...ALLOWING ODILE TO GET VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCOASTLINE...BUT AFTER NORBERT CLEARS OUT A BUILDING RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BLOCK ODILE'S PATH AND TURN IT BACK TO THE WEST.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH I HAVE ADJUSTED THE TRACK TO THE SOUTH AFTER 48 HOURS...MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE EVEN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 15.3N  98.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.9N  99.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 16.6N 101.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N 102.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N 103.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 107.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008\r\n\r\nODILE HAS PRODUCED A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C\r\nTHIS EVENING...WITH A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWING THAT\r\nTHE CLUSTER IS SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS\r\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS DECREASING...ALTHOUGH THIS HAS NOT\r\nYET TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  BASED\r\nON THIS AND THE LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/11...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE\r\nA LITTLE FASTER.  ODILE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF ODILE IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE NORBERT\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ODILE TO\r\nMAKE A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN...IF IT DOESN'T MAKE LANDFALL AND\r\nDISSIPATE FIRST.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND HWRF FAVOR THE LANDFALL\r\nSOLUTION...WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN...AND ECMWF KEEP ODILE\r\nOFFSHORE AND TURN IT WESTWARD.  INDEED...THE ECMWF SHOWS A\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS\r\nTHE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS...SHOWING A MOTION VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...AND A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AWAY FROM THE COAST THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST\r\n36-48 HR...AND IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nIF ODILE DOESN'T DISSIPATE OVER LAND...IT SHOULD REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. \r\nBETWEEN 24-72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST INCREASING\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING CYCLONIC\r\nNEAR ODILE AFTER 72 HR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS.  PROXIMITY\r\nTO LAND COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AND\r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THIS\r\nTIME.  AS ODILE MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS FORECAST IT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL DOES NOT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS COMPROMISES WITH A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KT.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE\r\nODILE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE IS AS FAR SOUTH\r\nAS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF AFTER 72 HR...IT MAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT AND AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 15.9N  99.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 16.6N 100.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.3N 102.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.5N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N 104.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nA PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES BEFORE 06Z SUGGESTED INCREASED CORE\r\nBANDING...AND THE 06Z DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T3.5.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT...WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS FORECASTING ODILE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n24 HOURS...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GFDL/HWRF SHOW IMMEDIATE WEAKENING. \r\nGIVEN THE RECENT INTENSFICATION...AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT\r\nLESSENING OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...\r\nAND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING TOWARD THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12...WITH THE FASTER SPEED PERHAPS A\r\nCONSEQUENCE OF THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE AND A\r\nSTRONGER INTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER EASTERLIES ALOFT.  THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH A TURN TO THE WEST\r\nEXPECTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND HURRICANE\r\nNORBERT.  UNTIL THEN...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST\r\nOFFSHORE IN ACCORD WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.  ONLY\r\nTHE HWRF AND NOGAPS BRING THE CENTER INLAND.  AFTER 24-36 HOURS...\r\nBOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SPLIT THE UPPER AND LOWER PARTS OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH THE LOWER PORTION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nAND THE UPPER PORTION MORE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST.  BECAUSE THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE AS A RELATIVELY\r\nSTRONG SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT SOUTHWARD\r\nTREND.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THAT ONLY SMALL ERRORS IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS\r\nWOULD BRING A HURRICANE TO THE COASTLINE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO\r\nHAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 16.6N 100.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.5N 102.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.9N 103.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 104.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N 105.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.8N 107.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n \r\nIT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER OF ODILE WITHIN THIS LARGE\r\nBUT SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS DISTORTED BY SHEAR AND BY THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH LAND. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS AND THIS POSITION\r\nMATCHES WITH EXTRAPOLATION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND\r\nWITH NO OTHER DATA AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n55 KNOTS. ONCE AGAIN STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS ODILE TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SOPHISTICATED\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nORGANIZATION AND INCREASING SHEAR...AND ASSUMING THAT THE CENTER\r\nWILL CONTINUE OVER WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTHEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.\r\nODILE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG\r\nMIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AS THE RIDGE\r\nEXPANDS WESTWARD...IT WILL PROBABLY FORCE ODILE ON A MORE WEST AND\r\nEVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH FOLLOWS MY PREDECESSOR.  HOWEVER...THIS\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY\r\nDIFLUENT. HALF OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MOVE ODILE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST BRINGING IT INLAND IN A DAY OR SO AND THE OTHER HALF\r\nTURNED THE CYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD. THEY ALL HAVE ONE THING IN\r\nCOMMON...THEY BASICALLY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE RATHER QUICKLY.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY HEADING TOWARD ODILE\r\nSO WE WILL KNOW MORE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 17.2N 101.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 103.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.1N 104.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N 105.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 18.3N 106.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 107.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 109.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n \r\nI WILL HAVE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS IN THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ON\r\nITS WAY TO NORBERT...WENT THROUGH ODILE AND FOUND A VERY\r\nDISORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS\r\nWERE QUITE WEAK AND THE SFMR MEASURED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN SMALL AREA\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND I AM NOT SURE IF THESE SFMR WINDS ARE GOOD OR\r\nNOT. MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED WAS 1009 MB BUT COULD BE LOWER\r\nBECAUSE THE CYCLONE WAS VERY DISORGANIZED AND THE DROPSONDE DID NOT\r\nHIT THE SURFACE CENTER. A GOOD COMPROMISE BETWEEN SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES...CONTINUITY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA IS TO ADJUST THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY DOWN TO 40 KNOTS BUT THIS IS VERY GENEROUS. I AM\r\nNOT GOING TO WRITE AT THIS TIME THE REASON OF SUCH SUDDEN DEMISE OF\r\nTHE STORM BECAUSE I DO NOT HAVE THE ANSWER. HOWEVER...I WILL BE\r\nGIVING CREDIT TO NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH HAS BEEN INSISTING ON\r\nDISSIPATING THE SYSTEM QUICKLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS\r\nFOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THIS COULD HAPPEN QUICKER IF THE CENTER\r\nMOVES INLAND OR THERE IS MORE INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER...IF\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS FOR A\r\nRAPID WEAKENING.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS TO BE REVERSED AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST\r\nAT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER HAS\r\nBEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDISSIPATE THE SYSTEM THE MODEL TRACKERS ARE NOT AVAILABLE.  HOWEVER\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS DO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO\r\nAND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A WESTWARD COMPONENT TO THE\r\nCYCLONE. ODILLE SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AND WEST SOON AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nODILE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...HAS REALLY FOOLED ME AS ODILE...THE\r\nEVIL CHARACTER IN THE BALLET SWAN LAKE...FOOLED THE PRINCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 17.9N 102.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.6N 104.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 19.3N 106.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N 107.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 19.5N 109.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 11 2008\r\n\r\nTHE LOCATION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF ODILE ARE HARD TO DETERMINE\r\nTHIS EVENING.  WHAT LOW CLOUDS THAT CAN BE SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nALONG WITH AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 00Z SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW\r\nON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG...BUT DISORGANIZED...\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nPREVIOUS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  WHILE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION\r\nFROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA.  THE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN REVISED\r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AND MAY NEED TO BE REVISED AGAIN IF A\r\nGOOD SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS OCCURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10.  ODILE REMAINS ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...WITH THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL FORECASTING WEAK RIDGING TO DEVELOP NORTH\r\nOF ODILE AS HURRICANE NORBERT DISSIPATES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE ONLY GLOBAL\r\nMODEL THAT HANGS ON TO ODILE FOR 5 DAYS...THE ECMWF...CALLS FOR IT\r\nTO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE BAM MODELS FORECAST\r\nA CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE PACIFIC WEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES AND CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST...\r\nWHILE IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...DOES NOT LIE PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO\r\nANY GUIDANCE MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE.  FIRST...ANY\r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD CAUSE ODILE TO\r\nMAKE LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SECOND...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE EASTERLY SHEAR TO INCREASE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.   THE GFDL...HWRF...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST ODILE TO DISSIPATE DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR\r\nAND LAND INTERACTION...AND THAT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY. \r\nHOWEVER...IF ENOUGH OF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24-48 HR...IT\r\nMAY FIND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST TO\r\nRE-INTENSIFY...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  WITH THESE EXTREME\r\nPOSSIBILITIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BY FOLLOWING THE\r\nSCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THAT ODILE WILL BE DISRUPTED\r\nENOUGH BY THE SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE\r\nTO RECOVER OVER OPEN WATER.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING...WITH ODILE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 18.2N 103.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.9N 105.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.4N 106.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 107.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 108.4W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N 109.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008\r\n \r\nBASED ON A SERIES OF SSMI AND AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES BEFORE 06Z...THE\r\nWEAK DISORGANIZED SURFACE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE DECOUPLED\r\nSOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER WHICH HAS MOVED CLOSE TO THE\r\nMEXICO COAST NEAR MANZANILLO.  CLOUD-DRIFT DERIVED MID TO UPPER\r\nWINDS INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO\r\n30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nDEPICTION OF THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 35 KT SIMPLY BECAUSE THE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH QUITE\r\nRAGGED...HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL TRANSITION INTO A\r\nSTRONGER EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND INDICATES WEAKENING TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/6...A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED A\r\nLITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE EXPECTED\r\nBUILDING OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND NORBERT HAS ALREADY\r\nCOMMENCED.  CONSEQUENTLY...A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET AND\r\nECMWF MODELS WHICH ALL DEPICT A SHEARED WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDRIFTING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nRIDGE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 18.2N 104.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.2N 105.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 18.1N 105.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 18.0N 106.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 17.8N 107.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Odile","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT\r\nODILE IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SHAPELESS AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS MINIMAL. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF\r\nMEXICO ONLY REPORTED RAIN AND PRESSURES RISING WITH LIGHT WINDS.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS.  SINCE WE DO NOT HAVE\r\nENOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES AT THIS TIME...WE ARE KEEPING ODILE AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION MOST LIKELY\r\nWILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE ESTIMATES OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION HAVE BEEN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. I HAVE USED CONTINUITY TO\r\nLOCATE THE CENTER BUT I WOULD NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAS MOVED INLAND AND IS DISSIPATING. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION LATER TODAY OR MONDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 19.5N 105.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 20.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Odile","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP162008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 12 2008\r\n \r\nAND YET ODILE GAVE ANOTHER SURPRISE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINED STATIONARY AND IT IS LOCATED\r\nFARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. I TRACKED A\r\nMIDDLE LEVEL CENTER THAT MOVED FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nDISSIPATED.  ODILE IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS\r\nDEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nMANZANILLO. SINCE THERE IS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE THE REMNANTS DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND THE\r\nWESTWARD.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ODLE UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 18.8N 104.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 19.0N 105.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-23 16:15:00","Key":"EP172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008\r\n915 AM PDT THU OCT 23 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMI AND\r\nQUIKSCAT INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A FEW HUNDRED\r\nMILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT. A 1324 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWING SOME RELIABLE\r\n20-25 KT RETRIEVALS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS IN THE\r\nCONVECTION. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.\r\n\r\nA QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS...ALONG WITH A SSMI PASS FROM 1239\r\nUTC...SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD SURFACE CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nANALYZED BY CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nUNTIL IT BECOMES DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND IS STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH WILL INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A SHORT WINDOW IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY BEFORE A\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY\r\nINCREASES THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO OVER 40 KNOTS. THIS WILL LIKELY\r\nRESULT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO\r\nA MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING AND\r\nDEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1615Z 13.1N 104.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N 104.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 104.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.3N 105.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 106.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2008\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT\r\n1800 UTC...HOWEVER 25 KM ASCAT WIND RETRIEVALS IN A PASS FROM 1700\r\nUTC SHOWED ONLY A COUPLE OF AMBIGUITIES WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 25 TO\r\n30 KT.  BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND THE FACT THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS CYCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED\r\nTO ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR BY EARLY FRIDAY...LEADING TO\r\nTHE DECOUPLING OF THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  THIS\r\nREASONING IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC RUNS OF THE UKMET\r\nAND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH BOTH SHOW THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCONTINUING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION TURNS TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWITH THE SHEAR POISED TO INCREASE SOON...THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO\r\nHAVE A EVER SHRINKING WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO REACH TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 35 KT AT\r\n12 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 40 KT\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS.  A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nBY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 13.9N 104.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 14.6N 104.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.7N 105.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.3N 107.1W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 110.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 23 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION AS\r\nINDICATED BY A 0125 UTC SSMI PASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT\r\nCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN 12 HOUR OR SO...THE\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE ENDING. A\r\nWEAKENING TREND SHOULD BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO AS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER\r\nAND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOME EVEN MORE DETACHED. IT SHOULD\r\nBE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/10. THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD SLOW DOWN VERY SOON AND TURN MORE THE WEST AS IT\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 15.3N 105.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.8N 105.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.0N 106.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 107.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 108.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THERE MAY\r\nEVEN BE MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE SCATTER AMONG THE VARIOUS SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS...SO\r\nI HAVE OPTED TO USE AN APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE GEOMETRIC CENTER\r\nOF THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN NIGHTTIME\r\nFIXES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT...MAINLY\r\nDUE TO THE SCATTER IN THE FIX POSITIONS WHICH ALSO AFFECTS THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WHEN USING THE DVORAK SHEAR PATTERN TECHNIQUE.\r\nIT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT TD-17E IS ALREADY A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. IN ORDER TO ALLOW FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...I HAVE INCREASED\r\nTHE GUST DIFFERENTIAL IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT AND ALSO\r\nADDED 12-FT SEA HEIGHTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/07. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE SMALL BURST OF INTENSE\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION OF 360/10. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE\r\nRELIABLE NHC MODELS SUPPORT THAT MOTION FOR MORE THAN 6-12 HOURS\r\nBEFORE TURNING THE CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD. SOME MODELS SUCH\r\nAS THE GFDL AND HWRF EVEN TURN THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nALMOST IMMEDIATELY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nMODEL OF CONSENSUS...AND GRADUALLY BENDS THE TRACK OF A WEAKENING\r\nDEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 24 HOURS AND THEN WESTWARD\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS AS A SURFACE-TO-700 MB RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MOST OF\r\nMEXICO IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING\r\nSOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE DEPRESSION MAY ALREADY BE VERY NEAR\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DEPENDING ON JUST HOW CLOSE THE CENTER\r\nACTUALLY IS TO THE COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nACROSS MEXICO WILL ACT TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD MOTION...\r\nWHICH WILL SERVE TO INCREASE THE CURRENT 30-KT SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...UNLESS TD-17E\r\nREACHES TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...IT\r\nIS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL GET NAMED SINCE THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE TO 40-45 KT BY THE\r\n12-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 15.7N 106.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 106.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 107.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 108.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.1N 110.1W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.1N 112.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 18.1N 115.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008\r\n \r\nWIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 30-50 KT BY CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN...HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND VORTICITY ARE MOVING QUICKLY \r\nNORTHEAST...SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL INTO PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND\r\nDIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...MAKING THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AN\r\nUNCERTAIN 325/07.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT...BUT I HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT\r\n30 KT...BASED ON A 1258 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SHOWS A FEW \r\nAMBIGUITIES WITH 25-30 KT WINDS EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nLOCATION.\r\n \r\nIF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SURVIVES...THE FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nUNCHANGED.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STEERED MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOUTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE CURRENT TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL...HOLDING THE\r\nINTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW AT 48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATION AT 72 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER TODAY MAY INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER HAS ALREADY DISSIPATED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 16.4N 106.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.2N 107.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.9N 108.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.3N 109.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 18.4N 110.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP172008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172008\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 24 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BECOME POORLY DEFINED.  ADDITIONALLY...THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS BECOME DISORGANIZED TO THE POINT THAT SAB DEEMED THE SYSTEM TOO\r\nWEAK TO CLASSIFY AT 1800 UTC.  AS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM NO LONGER\r\nMEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE QUIKSCAT PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING. \r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT 36 TO\r\n48 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MORE WESTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT TO THE SHORT TERM MOTION NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS FULLY DECOUPLED.  FOLLOWING THE SHALLOW BAM MOST\r\nCLOSELY...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST\r\nTONIGHT AND SATURDAY BEFORE THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW\r\nPLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 15.8N 107.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 108.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.9N 109.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-11-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008\r\n \r\nRECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nLOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  SOME WELL-DEFINED\r\nCURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE FORMED IN THE CENTRAL REGION\r\nOF THE SYSTEM...AND THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION\r\nWARRANTS ITS DESIGNATION AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSTILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ BUT THERE IS\r\nFAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE AREA AND WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 28 DEG C FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nSHIPS AND THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  BY DAYS 4-5...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE WEAKENING\r\nBY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST OR 280/13.  THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS...ALONG WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM...TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  SUCH A TRACK MIGHT MATERIALIZE IF THE CYCLONE\r\nWERE TO STRENGTHEN SUBSTANTIALLY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nLEANS MORE TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT DEPICT MUCH\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z  8.6N 109.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z  8.7N 111.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z  9.0N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z  9.5N 115.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 10.2N 116.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 12.5N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 13.5N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-11-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2008\r\n \r\nAN SSMIS PASS AT 0105 UTC SUGGESTED A TIGHT CIRCULATION IS\r\nDEVELOPING IN THE CENTER OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS...IN COMBINATION\r\nWITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT UPGRADING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD BE RECEIVED SHORTLY AND WILL HOPEFULLY PROVIDE SOME\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/13.  THERE IS STILL LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND.  THE\r\nHWRF...GFDL AND THE DEEP-LAYER BAM CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE CYCLONE\r\nTO RECURVE AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CYCLONE IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WEAKER SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nTROUGH.  THESE MODELS...AND THE SHALLOW-LAYER BAM THEREFORE KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT...OR FARTHER EAST...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN AN\r\nADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS SLOWED TO ABOUT 6 KT AT 120 HOURS DUE TO THE LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO EXTRACT ITSELF FROM THE ITCZ IN THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH WARM SSTS AND LIGHT\r\nSHEAR.  THE GFDL...HWRF AND SHIPS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE...BRINGING IT TO HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 72 HOUR\r\nFORECAST TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO A\r\nPEAK OF 60 KT AT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE COULD BE STRONGER\r\nBY THAT TIME IF CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS CONTINUE...ALLOWING\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. \r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4-5 DUE TO COOLING SSTS AND AN\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z  8.9N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z  9.2N 112.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z  9.7N 114.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 10.3N 116.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 10.9N 117.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 12.0N 120.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-11-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2008\r\n\r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT POLO WAS DEVELOPING A TIGHT\r\nINNER CORE...INCLUDING AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nAPPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS BECOME LESS IMPRESSIVE DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A NOTABLE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n35 KT.  THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY...\r\nALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  POLO IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTHEAST\r\nSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT\r\nTHIS RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND BE\r\nREPLACED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 125W-140W...WITH A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING EAST OR NORTHEAST OF POLO.  THE MODELS\r\nALSO FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM TO WEAKEN...\r\nBUT NOT BREAK.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS EVOLUTION BY\r\nSPLITTING INTO TWO CAMPS...BASED MAINLY ON HOW VERTICALLY DEVELOPED\r\nPOLO IS.  THE GFDL...HWRF...BAMD...AND LBAR... WHICH KEEP A BETTER\r\nVERTICAL STRUCTURE...FORECAST POLO TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  THE ECMWF...UKMET...\r\nCANADIAN...GFS...AND BAMS...WHICH HAVE A LESS DEVELOPED CYCLONE...\r\nFORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE POLO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GOOD VERTICAL STRUCTURE THROUGH 72 HR...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL CALL FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION BY THAT TIME...IN BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCE CAMPS.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...IT IS EXPECTED THAT A WEAKENING POLO WILL BE STEERED MORE BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BEND TO\r\nTHE LEFT.  OVERALL...THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nPOLO IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A LIGHT VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  EXCEPT FOR THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE\r\nTRENDS...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED\r\nBY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY\r\nSHOWS POLO BECOMING A HURRICANE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 48-72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A\r\n35% CHANCE OF 25 KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IF\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OBSERVED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY PERSISTS POLO COULD\r\nGET STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES\r\nPOLO OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING\r\nSHEAR CAUSED BY THE TROUGH.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nSTORM TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z  8.9N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z  9.2N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z  9.7N 115.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 10.3N 117.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 11.0N 118.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 12.5N 121.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N 123.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 15.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-11-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2008\r\n \r\nPOLO IS A MIDGET TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RATHER TINY AREA OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WHILE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN\r\nEVIDENT IN THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...CLOUD-TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AT A 2.5 CI NUMBER. WINDS IN SUCH SMALL\r\nSYSTEMS COULD BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED FROM DVORAK...BUT IN THE\r\nABSENCE OF IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n35 KT.\r\n \r\nPOLO IS MOVING AT 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nMID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE IN ABOUT ONE TO TWO DAYS...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS BY BENDING THE CYCLONE'S TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR NORTHWEST.  AT THE LONG-LEAD...THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A WEAKENING CYCLONE STAIR-STEPPING BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE\r\nA STRONGER POLO BACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE.  GIVEN THAT ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nINCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK LEANS TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS OF A WEAKENING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS A BIT WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS...PERHAPS AS USUAL...NOT STRAIGHTFORWARD.\r\nTHE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...AND WARM SSTS WOULD\r\nSUGGEST ROBUST INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  BUT THE\r\nUNCONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT AND RATHER MEAGER\r\nCONVECTION WOULD SUGGEST OTHERWISE.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY SLOWLY\r\nBRINGS THE WINDS UP THROUGH 48 HOURS...STRONGER THAN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS...BUT WEAKER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\nAFTER TWO DAYS...THE INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING AND THE PREDICTED INTENSITY IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z  8.8N 113.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z  8.9N 114.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z  9.4N 116.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 10.4N 118.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 11.3N 120.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 12.5N 122.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 13.5N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 14.0N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-11-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITHIN POLO HAS REMAINED MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nAN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME APPARENT IN VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nDROPPED...THOUGH THE CI NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST A 35 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  A 1337Z QUIKSCAT PASS DID CONFIRM THE RATHER TINY\r\nSTRUCTURE...20 NMI RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM\r\nMARCO.  THE QUIKSCAT ALSO PROVIDED A PEAK BELIEVABLE-LOOKING VECTOR\r\nOF 40 KT.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF RAINFALL CONTAMINATION...IT IS NOT\r\nKNOWN IF THIS WAS A TRUE WIND OR SOMEWHAT INFLATED BECAUSE OF RAIN. \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER CONFIDENT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT...AS\r\nPOLO IS BEING STEERED BY A MID TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. \r\nA DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN POLO\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THIS\r\nTIME...THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODELS CONTINUE TO RECURVE POLO\r\nAS A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  IN CONTRAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS INSTEAD\r\nMOVE POLO AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nSTRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING POLO IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS...ACCORDING TO ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\nHOWEVER...CIRRUS VECTORS OVER THE STORM INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nMAY ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR.  THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE\r\nALSO NOT VERY CONDUCIVE WITH POLO MOVING OVER WARM SSTS BUT\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.  ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nNOW NONE ARE CALLING FOR POLO TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED UPON THE ICON MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nWEAKER THAN FORECAST PREVIOUSLY.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...\r\nBECOMING MORE PLAUSIBLE...IS THAT POLO HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN\r\nINTENSITY AND THAT IT MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER THAN\r\nADVERTISED...IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-EMERGE THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z  9.2N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z  9.5N 115.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 10.1N 117.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 10.9N 119.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 11.7N 121.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 12.5N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 13.0N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-11-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE DAY...BUT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE\r\nRECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WE HAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THE HIGH SIDE OF\r\nTHOSE ESTIMATES AT 35 KT.  AN UPCOMING QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE\r\nINFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 285/12.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...AS DOES THE SPLIT IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH\r\nTHE HWRF AND GFDL INSISTING THAT A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE\r\nWILL RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THESE\r\nMODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.  WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THAT TAKES A WEAKER...SHALLOWER CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST WITH A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nCONSENSUS...INCREASING THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT BY 24 HOURS\r\nAND HOLDING IT THERE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A\r\nGRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF POLO WERE TO LOSE ITS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...IT WOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nPOLO REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A RADIUS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF ONLY ABOUT 20 NM.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z  9.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z  9.9N 117.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 10.7N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 11.4N 120.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 11.9N 122.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 12.5N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 13.0N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 13.5N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-11-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION. \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT\r\n10 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING POLO...WHICH IS\r\nPROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE CURRENT STRUCTURE.  QUIKSCAT DATA AT\r\nAROUND 0200 UTC HAD TROUBLE RESOLVING THE SMALL CIRCULATION...BUT\r\nSHOWED A COUPLE OF 35 KT VECTORS.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 280-285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12\r\nKT.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nREASONING OR THE FORECAST GUIDANCE.  POLO IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...LBAR...BAMM...AND BAMD SHOW POLO TURNING NORTHWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH AS THESE MODELS KEEP A VERTICALLY COHERENT\r\nCYCLONE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT POLO\r\nWILL NOT MAINTAIN VERTICAL COHERENCE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE TROUGH. \r\nSINCE THE STORM CURRENTLY HAS A SHEARED STRUCTURE...AND THE SHEAR\r\nIS LIKELY TO INCREASE AFTER 36-48 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS\r\nTHE LATTER SET OF MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS...AND LIES WELL TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nVARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WEST OF\r\n125W...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST POLO TO ENCOUNTER THIS\r\nFLOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES...FOLLOWED BY\r\nWEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM\r\nMODEL.  THERE ARE TWO ALTERNATE INTENSITY SCENARIOS.  FIRST...THE\r\nGDFL CALLS FOR POLO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THIS\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  SECOND...SINCE POLO IS VERY\r\nSMALL...IT COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE FASTER THAN FORECAST WHEN IT\r\nENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z  9.6N 116.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 10.1N 118.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 10.8N 120.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 11.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 11.9N 123.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 12.5N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 13.5N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-11-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2008\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE CYCLONE...AND WE\r\nESTIMATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC\r\nWERE 3.0 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND THE ESTIMATED\r\nDISPLACEMENT OF THE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE\r\nHAVE HELD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE NEW GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...DISCOUNTING THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT\r\nOUTLIERS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE...THE 12\r\nHOUR INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND HELD THERE\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nSHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 40 KT AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\nTHEREFORE...WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY DAY 3 AND BEYOND...IN CLOSEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...HOWEVER GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF POLO...IT\r\nCOULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST ONCE IT ENCOUNTERS THE\r\nSTRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z  9.9N 117.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 10.3N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 10.9N 120.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 11.6N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 12.0N 124.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 12.5N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 13.0N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 13.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-11-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER OF POLO IN THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO A BAND EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED\r\nON 1800 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  GOES CLOUD TRACK\r\nWINDS SHOW STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nRAPIDLY DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD POLO...SUGGESTING THAT ANY\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR POLO TO STRENGTHEN WILL CLOSE SOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH POLO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD STEADY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS...WITH A SECOND LARGER INCREASE IN VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR TO OCCUR AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nBY THAT TIME...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...POLO\r\nCOULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA JASON ALTIMETER PASS OVER POLO AROUND 1600 UTC WAS USEFUL IN\r\nANALYZING THE RADIUS OF 12-FOOT SEAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 10.2N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 10.6N 120.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 11.2N 121.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 11.8N 123.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 12.3N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 13.0N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 13.5N 132.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Polo","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-11-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP182008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182008\r\n700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2008\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS AT 1800 UTC INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nWAS DEGENERATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH.  SINCE THAT TIME...A\r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND INCREASINGLY SEPARATED\r\nFROM THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON THE LACK OF A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER...ADVISORIES ON POLO ARE BEING\r\nDISCONTINUED.  THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY...CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nAT 270/12...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD PRECLUDE REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z  9.6N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009\r\n1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCICATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN PERSISTENT SINCE ABOUT 04Z THIS MORNING\r\nWHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE 25-26C WATERS OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE\r\nT2.0 AND T1.5...RESPECTIVELY.  AN AMSU PASS AT 1033Z HELPS TO PLACE\r\nTHE CENTER ON THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/15.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS BASIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 36 HOURS...WHEN THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO\r\nLOSE DEFINITION IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIVING\r\nOFF THE NARROW GULF STREAM WATERS.  AS LONG AS IT REMAINS THERE SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT\r\nSHOW THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL SST\r\nINPUT TO THE MODEL APPEAR TOO COLD.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...A LOSS OF CONVECTION...AND\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 37.3N  71.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 38.5N  68.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 40.2N  64.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 41.5N  60.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 43.0N  55.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 46.0N  46.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009\r\n500 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS DECREASED\r\nSOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n30 KT...WHICH REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nKEEPS THE CENTER OVER THE GULF STREAM FOR THE NEXT 6-12 HR IN A\r\nLIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR\r\nDURING THAT TIME AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  AFTER THAT...COLDER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY\r\n36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 48 HR.  IT IS POSSBLE THAT BOTH\r\nOF THESE EVENTS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN\r\nCANADA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 37.7N  69.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 38.7N  67.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 40.4N  62.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 42.2N  57.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 43.9N  52.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009\r\n1100 PM AST THU MAY 28 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WAS BECOMING SOMEWHAT EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS SHRUNK A BIT IN SIZE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 1.5\r\nFROM SAB AND REMAIN 2.0 FROM TAFB.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2330 UTC\r\nSHOWED A FEW TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE VECTORS THAT APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN\r\nAFFECTED BY RAIN.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nHELD AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY\r\nHUGGING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTAKES THE CENTER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WALL OVER COLDER WATERS\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL ALLOWS FOR\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nBEFORE THIS HAPPENS...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO HAPPEN SOON. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE\r\nTANGLED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO BE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nAT THAT POINT. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS\r\nOVERTAKEN BY ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR NEW\r\nENGLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND THE BULK OF THE MODELS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/13 AS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING STEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE\r\nTROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 38.1N  67.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 39.1N  65.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 41.2N  60.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 43.4N  55.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009\r\n500 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009\r\n \r\nAFTER AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION THAT BEGAN AROUND 0400\r\nUTC...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO\r\nDECREASE AND MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.  THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AT 0102 UTC THAT SHOWED\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN WALL OF\r\nTHE GULF STREAM...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nCOLDER WATER TODAY.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nTHIS SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HAS PASSED.  MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY 36\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES\r\nPOORLY DEFINED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING AROUND 070/13.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  MOST OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN...\r\nARE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 38.9N  66.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 40.2N  63.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 42.5N  59.1W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009\r\n1100 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DISPLACING THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB CONFIRM\r\nTHIS DEGRADATION IN APPEARANCE...BUT WINDS ARE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT\r\nAT 30 KT THIS ADVISORY BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...WITH AN\r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 065/16...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nSHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUGGESTS A\r\nFURTHER ACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS REACHED COLDER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTAKES THE SYSTEM OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. \r\nIN ADDITION...THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE MAJORITY\r\nOF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN 12 HOURS\r\nAND ABSORPTION BY THE FRONTAL ZONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 39.6N  64.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 41.2N  61.2W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009\r\n500 PM AST FRI MAY 29 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH THE NEAREST DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NOW DISPLACED ABOUT 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SINCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM LACKS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT HAS NOW DEGENERATED\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ONE.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS AND\r\nUNDERGOING SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR...NO REGENERATION IS\r\nEXPECTED. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME ABSORBED\r\nWITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nLATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.\r\n\r\nA DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS CARRYING THE REMNANTS OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION STEADILY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...065/16...AND MODELS SHOW\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THIS HEADING OR SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 40.3N  62.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 41.4N  59.4W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-11 10:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n600 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n \r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BROAD LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WE HAVE BEEN\r\nTRACKING OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS ACQUIRED\r\nSUFFICENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SITUATED OVER MARGINALLY WARM\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY RATHER\r\nWEAK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE TOOLS.  AS USUAL THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO\r\nTHE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IF THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN ANTICIPATED BELOW IT WILL PROBABLY\r\nENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR AND NOT INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS FORECAST.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND IF THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD...IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED\r\nHERE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 270/11.  THIS TRACK IS LIKELY TO MORE OR\r\nLESS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS DUE TO THE FLOW SOUTH OF A\r\nFAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS LIKELY TO INDUCE A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF\r\nTHE BAM TRACKS.  THIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF THE LATEST HWRF TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1000Z 14.4N  28.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.6N  30.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N  32.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N  34.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.2N  36.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  41.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N  45.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N  49.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE THIN ON DEEP CONVECTION AT THE\r\nMOMENT...BUT IT STILL HAS A SMALL WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  AN 1114 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nARE 25 KT...LIMITED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nIN GENERAL...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT ALL THAT AGGRESSIVE IN\r\nSHOWING INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE MARGINALLY WARM...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL HAVE TO ENDURE SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. \r\nNONETHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH DURING\r\nTHE FIRST FOUR DAYS OR SO TO ALLOW SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH BY DAY 5 THAT IT BEGINS TO FEEL\r\nTHE EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES SOME WEAKENING BY THEN.  IT MUST BE STATED AGAIN\r\nTHAT IF THE DEPRESSION TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...IT WOULD STAY\r\nAWAY FROM THE INCREASING SHEAR AND COULD POSSIBLY BECOME STRONGER\r\nTHAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT 275/11.  LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...A\r\nWEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH BUT STILL LIES NORTH AND EAST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 14.6N  29.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.7N  31.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N  33.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 14.9N  35.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.1N  38.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N  43.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N  47.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N  52.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS HAVING SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING WELL-DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS\r\nLIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE HAS BEEN NO IMPROVEMENT\r\nTO THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE T1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 25 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHIS FORECAST PACKAGE MAKES NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING MARGINALLY WARM WATER AND BE\r\nUNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE AMBIENT MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AND\r\nSTABLE.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS STILL INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...PEAKING NEAR 50 KT IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REACH LATITUDES WHERE IT WILL BECOME\r\nIMPACTED BY STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...AND SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT\r\nIT APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 275/10 AS IT IS\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL\r\nSHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nMOVE DUE WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ALL\r\nINDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE\r\nRIDGE...BUT THE BULK OF THEM LIE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 14.6N  30.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.7N  32.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 14.7N  34.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.8N  36.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 15.0N  39.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N  44.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.0N  49.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  54.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...WITH THE\r\nCENTER ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS.  EVEN THOUGH\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...A RECENTLY-\r\nRECEIVED ASCAT PASS FROM 0000 UTC SUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY\r\nTO 30 KT.  EVEN MORE RECENTLY...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nFURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY NOW BE\r\nCLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER-\r\nDEFINED...THERE STILL EXISTS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL\r\nLOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/11...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO BEGIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE HWRF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AMONGST THE\r\nMODEL SUITE...IMMEDIATELY TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD PATH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SPREAD OF THE\r\nREMAINING GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY SMALL...EVEN IN THE LONGER\r\nRANGE...WHICH ADDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE HWRF SOLUTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH\r\nMARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS A RESULT\r\nOF INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH.  THIS INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM.  LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nINTERACT WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...DOWNSTREAM OF A\r\nPRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE WITHIN THE MID-OCEANIC\r\nTROUGH.  THIS INTERACTION SHOULD INDUCE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO WEAKEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM BEGINNING DAY 4.  SHOULD THE CYCLONE TAKE A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND.  THEN\r\nAGAIN...SHOULD THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...THE\r\nSHEAR WOULD LIKELY BE LOWER WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A STRONGER SYSTEM.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 14.8N  31.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N  33.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.8N  35.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.9N  37.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 15.2N  40.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 16.5N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N  51.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  56.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN/COHEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS\r\nREMAINS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION...ALTHOUGH\r\nRECENTLY THIS CLUSTER HAS TAKEN ON A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED APPEARANCE. \r\nMICROWAVE AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER REMAINS ON\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AND NOT WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT\r\nTHAT VALUE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INITIAL POSITION...AND\r\nTHE BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nGENERAL WESTERLY COURSE IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nRIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN\r\nCOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE HWRF/BAMD MODELS SHOW A SHARP NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE\r\nLATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGEST ONLY A GRADUAL BEND TO A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN\r\nTHE FIRST FEW DAYS...BUT ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nLIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES MARGINALLY WARM WATERS.  IN\r\nGENERAL...THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING...\r\nTHOUGH THE PRESENCE OF SOME DRIER/STABLE AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MAY PLAY AN INHIBITING ROLE.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\nA FEW DAYS...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A LOW-END\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BASICALLY SPLIT\r\nTHE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE OUTCOMES AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND\r\nWHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 14.6N  32.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N  34.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.6N  36.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.6N  38.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N  41.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  46.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.0N  52.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 22.5N  58.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SHOWS A CLASSICAL SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS DISPLACING\r\nTHE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB. HOWEVER...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0812Z DID NOT SHOW\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS THAT LOOKED RELIABLE. THUS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME...\r\nMOST OF THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE COMING\r\nFROM THE NORTH...REPRESENTING POSSIBLY MORE STABLE AIR PASSING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS. THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND\r\nAFRICA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE MODELS FORECAST A SERIES OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESSES IN\r\nTHE RIDGE THAT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE MOSTLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE ARE TWO CLUSTERS IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE HWRF...BAMD...LBAR...\r\nAND CLIPER CALL FOR AN EARLIER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND AS A\r\nRESULT THEY WIND UP NORTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE BY DAY 5.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOUTHERN GUIDANCE CLUSTER IN\r\nBEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC. \r\nALTHOUGH IT APPEARS UNLIKELY...THE UKMET SUGGESTS AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE DEPRESSION WEAKENING AND THE REMNANTS MOVING\r\nWEST INTO THE CARIBBEAN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR\r\n27C...AND THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASE TO 28C AFTER\r\n72 HR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO ENCOUNTER\r\nMODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...FIRST\r\nFROM THE EAST AND LATER FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.  ALSO...WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE LATTER TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY BE SLOW TO STRENGTHEN...AND AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS AN INTENSITY OF HIGHER THAN 55 KT\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY IN 72\r\nHR...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 14.3N  33.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.2N  35.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N  37.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.2N  40.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N  42.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.0N  48.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N  54.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N  60.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM A FEW HOURS AGO...WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...SINCE ABOUT 18Z THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nDECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND HAS MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30 KT\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND IN THE\r\nCONVECTION MAY BE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND TO A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION NOTED IN\r\nAMSR-E VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 1534Z.  ALSO...AS SEEN EARLIER...MOST OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO BE COMING FROM\r\nTHE NORTH...REPRESENTING POSSIBLY MORE STABLE AIR PASSING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFEEDING INTO A LARGE DISTURBANCE BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND\r\nAFRICA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE MODELS FORECAST A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT WOULD STEER\r\nTHE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND WHILE THE MODEL CLUSTERS SEEN\r\nEARLIER HAVE MERGED THERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BY 120 HR.\r\nTHE GFS AND UKMET ARE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nSHOWING A MORE WESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE HWRF AND BAMD ARE ON THE\r\nNORTH SIDE SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR.  OVERALL...THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...AND SO HAS\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN AND TVCC\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27C...WITH\r\nSSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK INCREASING TO 28C AFTER 72 HR.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...FIRST FROM THE\r\nEAST AND LATER FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  ALSO...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS VERY DRY AIR AT THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE LATTER TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM MAY BE SLOW\r\nTO STRENGTHEN...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CURRENTLY\r\nFORECASTS AN INTENSITY GREATER THAN 55 KT DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL WAVE DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AS FORECAST BY THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFS\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 14.3N  35.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.1N  36.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.1N  38.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.2N  41.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.6N  43.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  49.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N  62.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nAFTER BEING ON THE VERGE OF TROPICAL STORM STATUS EARLIER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE DEPRESSION HAS MADE A COMPLETE TURNAROUND AND IS\r\nNOW VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nEXPOSED TO THE EAST OF WHAT CONVECTION IS LEFT...AND A 2042 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS BARELY SHOWED 30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 30 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY\r\nDIAGNOSING 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION AND KEEPS\r\nIT FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS.  IN ADDITION...DRY AIR AND MARGINALLY WARM\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MUCH STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW ONLY SHOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM REACHING 45 KT...AND THIS IS STILL HIGHER THAN ICON...THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE AGAIN BY DAY 5...THIS TIME STRONGER AND FROM THE WEST...\r\nAND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AT THAT POINT.  ALL OF\r\nTHIS IS MOOT IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP SOON...IN WHICH\r\nCASE WE WOULD LIKELY TERMINATE ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 260/12.\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...BUT THIS TURN COULD BE DELAYED IF THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE HWRF WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS CONSENSUS SINCE IT\r\nHAS BEEN A CONSISTENT NORTHERN OUTLIER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 14.0N  36.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  37.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.1N  40.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.3N  42.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  44.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 16.5N  51.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N  57.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 23.0N  64.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A RATHER MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING\r\nWITH JUST A FEW CELLS AROUND THE EXPOSED CENTER.   SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 25 KT.  IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP\r\nSOON... THE SYSTEM COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. \r\nASSUMING THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES...THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS IS MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING WITH\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASING WATER TEMPERATURES WEST OF 40W AND PERHAPS A\r\nDECREASE IN MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION\r\nEVENTUALLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS A PRETTY LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST AS THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT EVEN\r\nSURVIVE THE DAY.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A\r\nTWELVE-HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/10.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGEST THAT THIS WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR SO\r\nWITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THEREAFTER AS A WEAKNESS\r\nDEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO BE AFFECTED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY BY THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND HAVE SHIFTED THE\r\nTRACK EQUATORWARD AS A RESULT.  THE HWRF CONTINUES ON ITS OWN BY\r\nMOVING THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE REST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS PRETTY WELL-CLUSTERED ON A MORE SOUTHERN PATH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND WITH MANY RELIABLE\r\nMODELS STILL SOUTH OF THE NHC TRACK...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO\r\nSEE THE FORECAST MOVE FARTHER SOUTH LATER ON.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 14.0N  36.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.0N  38.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 14.2N  40.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.4N  43.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.9N  45.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N  52.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 22.5N  65.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 13 2009\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CURRENTLY CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS\r\nWITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...TOO FEW TO GET A DATA-T\r\nNUMBER USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  SSMI/DATA AT ABOUT 09Z\r\nSUGGESTED 25 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT IS USED\r\nAS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  SSM/I AND AMSR-E PRECIPITABLE WATER\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR HAS WRAPPED ALMOST ALL\r\nTHE WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION.  THESE\r\nFACTORS...COMBINED WITH ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...MAY BE PREVENTING THE SYSTEM FROM MAINTAINING ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nA WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OVERALL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SOUTHWARD.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nIF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL WAVE...THE REMNANTS WOULD\r\nLIKELY MOVE FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY THE\r\nBAMM AND BAMS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY\r\nSTRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THUS\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND GFDN SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...\r\nWITH THE HWRF MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BY 120 HR.  BASED ON\r\nTHE FORECAST SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.  THERE IS A DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL\r\nWAVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS EXCEPT THE NOGAPS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 14.0N  37.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 14.0N  39.1W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 14.2N  41.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 14.4N  43.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 14.8N  46.6W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  52.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 18.5N  59.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  66.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 13 2009\r\n\r\nWHILE PERSISTING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS\r\nTOO SMALL TO BE CLASSIFIED USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  INDEED...IT\r\nHAS BEEN ALMOST 24 HR SINCE ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXISTED TO\r\nGET A DATA-T NUMBER.  BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION HAS DECAYED\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...AND A FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING A 25 KT INTENSITY\r\nFOR THE REMNANTS THROUGH 120 HR.  SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING...SO IF THE SYSTEM FINDS\r\nA MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT COULD REGENERATE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nA WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...IT\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW WEAKENING TO A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE...AND IF THIS OCCURS THE SYSTEM COULD MOVE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 14.2N  38.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.3N  39.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N  42.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 14.8N  44.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 15.1N  47.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N  54.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N  61.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N  67.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-15 16:30:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1230 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWO HAS REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DATA FROM\r\nA NOAA G-IV MISSION...NOAA BUOY 41041...AND A RECENTLY-RECEIVED\r\nASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WELL-DEFINED. THE BUOY\r\nALSO REPORTED 1006.4 MB AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS OF 19 KT. \r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS NOW PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER LONG\r\nENOUGH TO CONSIDER THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SPECIAL DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND WINDS FROM ASCAT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT THAT DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE\r\nSYSTEM IN A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  IN A FEW\r\nDAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MOVE\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FOR SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...NOW THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING INITIALIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE CHANGES\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF GUIDANCE CYCLES.\r\n \r\nRELATIVELY LOW SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF AN\r\nUPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...AN UPPER TROUGH\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD INDUCE SOME WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  GIVEN THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION THOUGH 48 HOURS AND LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF\r\nMODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY\r\nTABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BE A\r\nHURRICANE AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0430Z 14.6N  45.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.7N  47.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N  51.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.0N  54.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N  65.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N  71.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 25.5N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nANA. THE STORM IS DISPLAYING IMPROVED BANDING IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE ALONG WITH A BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. NOAA\r\nBUOY 41041 REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1005 MB AS THE\r\nDEPRESSION PASSED VERY NEAR THE BUOY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/14. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE\r\nTRACK OF ANA GRADUALLY BENDING FROM A WEST TO A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDIRECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT\r\nOUTLIERS TO THIS TRACK ARE THE GFDL AND GFS...WHICH BOTH WEAKEN THE\r\nSYSTEM RATHER QUICKLY...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. IN A FEW DAYS...SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...\r\nSHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT COULD\r\nALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE. THIS WEAKNESS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE CAUSED BY THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR\r\n25N 65W. HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INFLUENCE ON\r\nTHE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT HOLD ONTO\r\nANA ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS ADVISORY...\r\nBUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE 0000 UTC GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A MORE CONDUCIVE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES...SHOWING A\r\nWEAKER MID-OCEANIC TROUGH AFFECTING THE SYSTEM. IN PARTICULAR...THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS BUILD UPPER-RIDGING NEAR THE CYCLONE WITH LIGHT\r\nSHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF SHOWS SOME WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DEVELOPING IN ABOUT A DAY...BUT EVEN THAT MODEL HAS LIGHTER\r\nSHEAR CONDITIONS IN A FEW DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RUNS THE\r\nFULL SPECTRUM THIS MORNING...WITH THE GFDL DISSIPATING THE\r\nSYSTEM...WHILE THE HWRF SHOWS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 14.6N  46.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 14.7N  49.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 15.3N  52.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.1N  56.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.0N  60.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N  67.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N  73.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 26.0N  78.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n\r\nMORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BECOME\r\nEXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE AREA...SUGGESTING\r\nSOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVELOPED.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THAT\r\nREMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 270/14. \r\nOVERALL...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ANA QUICKLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE 120 HR\r\nFORECAST POINTS.  THE ECMWF AND BAMS ARE AT THE NORTHERN EXTREME...\r\nFORECASTING ANA TO BE OVER OR NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 120 HR. \r\nAT THE OTHER EXTREME ARE THE GFDL AND GFDN...WHICH FORECAST ANA TO\r\nPASS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AT\r\n120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND\r\nTHE HWRF.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT SHEAR WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS...AND IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A TEMPORARY TREND OR A\r\nSIGN OF LONG-TERM TROUBLE FOR ANA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR COULD AFFECT ANA EARLY AND LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE LIGHTEST SHEAR NEAR THE 72 HR TIME. \r\nBASED ON THIS AND THE INCREASINGLY WARM WATER UNDER THE STORM...\r\nMOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THE G-IV MISSION LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF ANA LACKED VERTICAL DEPTH...ENDING AT ABOUT 500 MB. \r\nADDITIONALLY...THE CYCLONE IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY...AND MAY INTERACT WITH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA IN 72 HR. \r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nOF 60 KT...BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nGREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 14.3N  48.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 14.6N  50.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 15.2N  54.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 16.1N  58.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.3N  62.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  69.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 22.0N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N  80.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ANA CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nNEAR ANA ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY...MOST OF THE\r\nCONTRIBUTION TO THE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE FROM THE FAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nTHE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN 35 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15.  OVERALL...A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSHOULD STEER ANA QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH ALL\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nREMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE 120 HR FORECAST POINTS.  THE\r\nECMWF AND BAMS ARE AT THE NORTHERN EXTREME...FORECASTING ANA TO\r\nPASS OVER OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA BY 120 HR.\r\nAT THE OTHER EXTREME ARE THE UKMET...GFDN...AND BAMM...WHICH\r\nFORECAST ANA TO PASS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND BE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AT 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE NOGAPS.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL ON THE NORTHERN SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOTABLY NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nIT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT SHEAR IS A TEMPORARY TREND OR A\r\nSIGN OF LONG-TERM TROUBLE FOR ANA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHE FORMER IS THE CASE...AND SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO\r\nCALL FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS STILL SURROUNDED\r\nBY DRY AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK NOW\r\nCALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA...AN OCCURRENCE\r\nTHAT HAS DESTROYED STORMS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANA.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL SURVIVE THIS PASSAGE AND\r\nINTENSIFY OVER THE WATERS NORTH OF CUBA.  AS BEFORE...THIS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS GREATER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 14.4N  50.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 14.7N  52.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 15.4N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 16.1N  59.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.2N  63.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 19.0N  70.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 21.5N  76.0W    55 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N  82.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ANA HAS BEEN PULSATING AND AFTER\r\nAN INCREASE FOR A FEW HOURS...THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nEXPOSED AGAIN. THIS MEANS ANNA IS NOT STRENGTHENING AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. A NOAA JET FLEW AGAIN TONIGHT AND ONE\r\nOF THE DROPS NEAR THE CENTER MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1004 MB\r\nWHICH WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG AS\r\nDIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODELS BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ANA IS\r\nSIMPLY MOVING TOO FAST. THIS RAPID MOTION IS PROBABLY NOT TOO\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  IN FACT...THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTHAT KEEP ANA ARE THE UK AND THE NOGAPS.  THE REST OF THEM WEAKEN\r\nANA TO A TROPICAL WAVE. I AM TEMPTED TO SHOW WEAKENING BUT FOR\r\nNOW...I AM GOING TO FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH\r\nHISPANIOLA AND CUBA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15. ANA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG AND\r\nPERSISTENT TRADE WINDS AND ONLY A SMALL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT IS\r\nWELL INSIDE THE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS\r\nKEEP A WEAKER ANA SOUTH OF CUBA AND OTHERS BRING THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nCUBA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE NORTHERNMOST GROUP\r\nOF MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 14.4N  51.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 14.7N  54.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 15.5N  57.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N  61.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N  65.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N  73.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 22.5N  78.9W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N  83.6W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS AT 00Z SUGGESTED THAT ANA WAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM\r\nAT THAT TIME...BUT IT CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH VERY\r\nLITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...AND MAY HAVE WEAKENED.  FOR NOW\r\nHOWEVER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nTHROUGH WHICH ANA IS MOVING IS VERY DRY...AND THE SYSTEM HAS HAD\r\nDIFFICULTY MAINTAINING CONVECTION.  THERE IS STILL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION...AND SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REFLECT THAT.  LATER ON...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO ANTICIPATED INTERACTION WITH LAND.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ANA\r\nREMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 14.6N  53.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N  56.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 15.9N  60.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 16.8N  64.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 17.6N  68.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N  76.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 23.0N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N  85.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nANA CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 0950 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME\r\nBELIEVABLE 30 KT WINDS...AND ASSUMING WINDS ARE HIGHER IN THE\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER THE INTENSITY IS HELD GENEROUSLY AT \r\n35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE WILL BE\r\nINVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD HELP\r\nDETERMINE IF ANA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF ANA IS RATHER DRY AND DOMINATED BY\r\nSUBSIDENCE...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RADIOSONDE\r\nDATA FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM CONTINUE\r\nTO SUGGEST THAT ANA WILL INTENSIFY SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE NEGATIVE FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE...ONLY\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THE INTENSITY OF ANA WILL BE DICTATED PRIMARILY BY ITS\r\nINTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nACCOUNTS FOR THIS WITH WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...\r\nSHOWING A QUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE\r\nFIRST 3 OR 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND THAT TIME THERE\r\nIS A SPLIT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF SHOWING\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS SHOW A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED\r\nTOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY 5 AND SHOWS A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF ANA...TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...\r\nTHE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO. IF AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nFINDS ANA IS A TROPICAL STORM...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED\r\nLATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 14.8N  55.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 15.2N  58.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 16.1N  62.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 17.1N  66.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 18.3N  70.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 23.5N  83.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 25.5N  85.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ana","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ANA DID NOT\r\nFIND ANY WINDS TO SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IN FACT...ALL\r\nOF THE STRONG WINDS WERE WELL NORTH OF THE PRESSURE MINIMUM IN THE\r\nEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO STRUGGLED TO CLOSE OFF A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER...HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES FOR NOW\r\nSINCE THE AIRCRAFT WILL STILL BE IN THE SYSTEM UNTIL 0000 UTC. IF\r\nA WELL-DEFINED CENTER CANNOT BE FOUND AT THAT TIME...ADVISORIES MAY\r\nBE DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nANA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD VERY QUICKLY...ALONG A HEADING OF\r\n280/20. THIS QUICK MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...EXCEPT A\r\nLITTLE FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE QUICK INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE REACHING HISPANIOLA. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nLAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE CONTINUED...GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT\r\nFAR BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND APPROACHING THE ISLANDS SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 15.1N  58.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.7N  62.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 16.7N  66.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 17.8N  70.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 18.8N  73.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 21.5N  80.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N  84.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 25.0N  87.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ana","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nANA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS MOVING QUICKLY AT\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/23.  ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nRECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED...IT IS ORIENTED LINEARLY ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH\r\nAXIS AND APPEARS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THE CENTER\r\nAPPEARS REASONABLY WELL-DEFINED ON THE GUADELOUPE RADAR BUT THIS IS\r\nLIKELY DEPICTING A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION RATHER THAN ONE AT THE\r\nSURFACE.  AT THIS TIME WE WOULD RATHER NOT STOP ADVISORIES WHILE\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES.  HOWEVER IF\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THOSE ISLANDS CONFIRM THE LACK OF A\r\nCENTER...ADVISORIES WILL BE TERMINATED EARLY MONDAY.\r\n \r\nVERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ANY RE-STRENGTHENING...AND A\r\nFEW SUCH AS THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL LOSE THE VORTEX AFTER ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANA SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nOVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA IN 24-36 HOURS...AND IT IS\r\nDOUBTFUL THAT ITS CIRCULATION WILL MAKE IT ACROSS THAT ISLAND\r\nINTACT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ANA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n36 HOURS AFTER IT BEGINS CROSSING LAND...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT\r\nCOULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AT ANY TIME.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM\r\nTRACK AND IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SINCE IT IS ASSUMED THAT\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT\r\nANA WILL NOT RE-STRENGTHEN OR UNTIL IT PASSES THE LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\nLATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 16.0N  61.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 16.7N  64.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 18.1N  68.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.6N  72.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 21.2N  76.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  81.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 26.0N  84.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 28.0N  86.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ana","Adv":21,"Date":"2009-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009\r\n \r\nIT IS UNCLEAR IF ANA STILL HAS A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND\r\nSAN JUAN PUERTO RICO...BUT NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE\r\nNORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS HAVE SHOWN A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT.  IN\r\nADDITION...AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0140 UTC STRONGLY SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS A SHARP TROPICAL WAVE.  BECAUSE OF THE RECENT\r\nCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING CONTINUED FOR THE\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME UNTIL VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CAN CONFIRM\r\nOR DENY THE EXISTENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LATER THIS\r\nMORNING.\r\n \r\nANA IS MOVING AT AN UNCERTAIN BUT FAST 285/24.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AND INDICATES THAT\r\nANA WILL MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WEAKEN THE VORTEX AND BRING THE REMNANTS\r\nTOWARD THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR FLORIDA BY DAYS 3 THROUGH\r\n5...SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SHOWS A\r\nSLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT THEREAFTER TOWARDS BAM SHALLOW SINCE THE\r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX.  THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN AS IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY NOT\r\nMAKE IT ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTACT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 16.6N  63.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 17.6N  67.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.3N  71.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 21.2N  75.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 22.8N  78.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N  82.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 28.0N  84.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 30.0N  84.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ana","Adv":22,"Date":"2009-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OR WAVE AXIS OF ANA PASSED OVER BUOY 42060 AROUND\r\n0830Z...AND IF A CENTER EXISTED AT THAT TIME IT WAS SOUTH OF THE\r\nBUOY.  THERE WAS ONE SHIP REPORT WITH A LIGHT WEST WIND AT 12Z. \r\nSINCE THAT TIME...NEW CONVECTION WITH A MID-LEVEL SPIN HAS\r\nDEVELOPED NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THESE\r\nHINTS...WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES AT LEAST UNTIL A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES ANA THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nWITH A CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE BASED ON A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL ROTATION SEEN IN THE RADAR DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 285/24. ANA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM GIVEN THE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...\r\nINTERACTION WITH LAND...AND POTENTIAL REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS FOR THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER. TOWARD THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...ANA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK\r\nSTEERING OVER OR NEAR THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE UNCERTAIN EXISTENCE OF\r\nAN ACTUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE LAND MASSES IN THE PATH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...AND HIGHLY DIVERGENT OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF ANA IS STILL CHARACTERIZED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...BOTH GLOBAL AND REGIONAL...ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY DISSIPATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW RESTRENGHENING. IF\r\nANA SURVIVES ITS PATH OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND EMERGES TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A\r\nMORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT THERE.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS ANA AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS...ADMITTEDLY...\r\nSOMETHING OF A HEDGE BETWEEN TWO MORE LIKELY ALTERNATIVES...THAT OF\r\nA TROPICAL STORM NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OR IMMINENT DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 17.3N  66.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 18.6N  69.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  73.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 22.3N  77.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 23.7N  79.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 26.5N  82.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 28.0N  83.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  83.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ana","Adv":23,"Date":"2009-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022009\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED ANA THIS AFTERNOON\r\nAND DID NOT FIND A CLOSED WIND CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY...ANA IS\r\nNO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. \r\n\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF ANA ARE MOVING AT 290/21. THE REMNANT TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS PATH...BRINGING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO HISPANIOLA AND CUBA OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS HAVE BOTH SHIFTED SOUTH\r\nFROM EARLIER...TAKING THE 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER OVER OR EVEN\r\nSOUTH OF CUBA...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF REGENERATION.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 17.5N  68.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE BROAD AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS FORMED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DESIGNATED A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND\r\n35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CONSOLIDATING SOUTH OF WHERE THE CENTER WAS BEING\r\nTRACKED YESTERDAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\n265/15.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE DEPRESSION\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE ELONGATED MONSOON/TROPICAL WAVE CIRCULATION THAT\r\nSPAWNED IT.  OVERALL...DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nAND EASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AND THERE IS A FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTER OF THE MODELS\r\nAROUND THE 5 DAY FORECAST POINT.  ONE EXCEPTION IS THE ECMWF...\r\nWHICH FORECASTS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER\r\nMODELS AND AT THIS TIME IS A RIGHT OUTLIER.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH LIGHT/MODERATE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 4 DAYS.  ALL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 72-96\r\nHR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 11.5N  34.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 11.3N  36.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 11.3N  38.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.8N  41.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 12.4N  44.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 14.0N  50.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N  57.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N  63.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE FAR EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nLARGE AND HAS NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. BILL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SHEAR THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nUPWARD INTENSITY TREND INDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBILL IS IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND IS WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY\r\nTRADE WINDS. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265\r\nDEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. IN GENERAL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A DAY OR SO...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE...AND\r\nTHE BULK OF THE MODELS HAS BILL AS A HURRICANE JUST NORTH AND VERY\r\nNEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 11.3N  35.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 11.2N  37.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 11.5N  40.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 12.0N  43.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 13.0N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 14.5N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 19.5N  63.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT BILL IS GRADUALLY BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT DATA.  WITH THE\r\nCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD...BILL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND BECOME EVEN STRONGER THEREAFTER.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS AND BOTH THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.\r\n\r\nBILL IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nWELL-EMBEDDED IN THE TROPICAL TRADE WINDS AND WILL CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF\r\nWAS THE LEADER SHOWING A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TREND AHEAD OF A TROUGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES A FEW RUNS AGO.  NOW...THE REST OF\r\nTHE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL...ARE FOLLOWING THE\r\nECMWF TUNE...AND ALL TURN BILL MORE THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON THIS SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nNORTHWARD AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 11.3N  36.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 11.2N  38.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 12.0N  41.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 12.8N  44.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.0N  47.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  52.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N  58.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 21.0N  64.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BILL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO FIND THIS MORNING...AND A\r\n0419 UTC AMSR-E PASS INDICATED THAT IT HAS EITHER SLOWED DOWN OR\r\nHAS BEEN RE-FORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  BILL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE UPWARD TREND NOTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  BILL IS\r\nNOW EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY DAY 5...BUT IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 100 KT SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IS STILL\r\nBELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WELL BELOW THE HWRF MODEL.  THIS\r\nIS TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR THAT MAY DEVELOP BY DAYS\r\n4 AND 5...AS INDICATED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11.  BILL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AND TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NEW SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS APPEAR TO BE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nUKMET AS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER...ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 11.4N  37.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 11.8N  39.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 12.5N  41.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 13.4N  44.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N  47.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N  53.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 19.0N  58.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N  64.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nBILL IS DISPLAYING A BEAUTIFUL CURVED BAND PATTERN ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THIS MORNING WITH A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  A 0808 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT\r\nLEAST 45 KT...AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN\r\n45-55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT AS A BLEND OF THE\r\nABOVE DATA.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE CONFIRMED THAT\r\nTHE CENTER HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ABOUT 285/14.  A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEW FEW DAYS DUE TO SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF BILL.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BESIDES THE UKMET SHOW\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AS A\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE FORMS AT ABOUT 65W.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHAT TREND.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED\r\nINTENSIFICATION DUE TO LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS.  SSTS BEGIN TO\r\nRISE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE AFTER THAT TIME.  ALL RELIABLE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...\r\nTHOUGH AT DIFFERING TIME PERIODS WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWING IT HAPPENING EARLIER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS/LGEM THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nLEVELED OFF AFTER 96 HOURS DUE THE POSSIBILITY OF WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nDEVELOPING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE QUIKSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE WIND FIELD WITH\r\nBILL HAS EXPANDED...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL 12 FT SEAS AND\r\nFORECAST WIND RADII ARE LARGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 12.1N  38.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 12.6N  40.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.4N  43.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 14.3N  45.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.2N  48.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  54.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 20.5N  59.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 24.0N  63.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BILL HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING AND OUTFLOW.  THESE FEATURES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5...55 KT ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE AND THIS VALUE WILL BE USED FOR THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED.\r\n\r\nBILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/14.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE SHOULD REMAIN FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A COUPLE OF EVOLUTIONS TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SEEM\r\nPOSSIBLE.  THE FIRST...FAVORED BY THE GFS/ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF...SHOWS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...CAUSING\r\nIT TO BREAK AROUND 65W.  THIS LEADS TO A NORTHWEST MOTION OF BILL\r\nIN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE OTHER SOLUTION...SHOWN BY THE\r\nNOGAPS/UKMET...IS THAT THE HURRICANE BYPASSES THE FIRST BREAK AND\r\nCONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY TURNING\r\nNORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT AT THE END...IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE HIGHLY-SKILLED MODELS IN THE FORMER SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nAN UPPER HIGH WITH LITTLE SHEAR LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nIN COMBINATION WITH WARM SSTS...THERE IS NO REASON NOT TO FORECAST\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF BILL.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 38 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE\r\nIN WINDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALL RELIABLE MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...WITH THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF/GFDN MODELS FORECASTING BILL TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR\r\nSTRENGTH BY DAY 5.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FIELDS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS WITH SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DEVELOPING AS BILL\r\nBECOMES DISPLACED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELING OFF AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THAT\r\nPOSSIBILITY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 12.8N  40.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 13.4N  42.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 14.2N  45.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.0N  47.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  50.4W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N  55.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N  60.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 26.5N  65.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS TO -80C WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...ALONG\r\nWITH AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  A LONG...WELL-DEFINED BAND\r\nCONNECTED TO THE ITCZ IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE\r\nLESSER BANDING COILS AROUND THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTAKING THE MEAN OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY WIND\r\nSPEED IS SET AT 60 KT.\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT YIELD AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED THAN BEFORE. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH...BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST HEADING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  WITH LITTLE\r\nSPREAD IN THE CURRENT MODEL CYCLE THROUGH THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK DEVIATES LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREAFTER...\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A RATHER SUBSTANTIAL BREAK\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD DEVELOP ROUGHLY ALONG 60W...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A MORE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND\r\nSO HAS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  ONLY THE UKMET FAVORS A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AND APPEARS AS THE LONE...SOUTHERN OUTLIER\r\nAMONGST THE REMAINDER OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 96\r\nHOURS...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW...BILL HAS BEEN\r\nTRACKING OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WATERS ARE NOT\r\nFORECAST TO WARM FURTHER UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS.  INTERESTINGLY...THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF SHOW A NEARLY FLAT INTENSIFICATION RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO...PERHAPS UNDERSCORING THE TEPID THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX\r\nSHOWS A 41% CHANCE OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW\r\nSHEAR AND WARMING WATERS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR BILL...ALLOWING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nWHICH PREDICTS A FAIRLY STEADY RATE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL\r\nOUTRUNS FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 13.4N  41.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 14.1N  43.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.9N  46.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N  49.2W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.8N  51.8W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 19.7N  56.8W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N  61.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 28.1N  65.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES REVEAL AN IMPRESSIVE MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WITH A LARGE AREA OF -70C AND EVEN -80C CLOUD\r\nTOPS WITHIN A WELL-ORGANIZED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. IN\r\nADDITION...SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED BANDS ARE NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE. A 0142 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED A DISTINCT\r\nCONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE CENTER...ALSO SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG\r\nWITH CURRENT TRENDS...SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO\r\n65 KT. THIS MAKES BILL THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2009 ATLANTIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON.\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE CENTER FIXES ARE LESS DOUBTFUL THAN EARLIER AND\r\nYIELD A RATHER RAPID INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/19. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS BILL IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nWEAKNESS CURRENTLY ALONG 50W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ERODING A\r\nPORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE\r\nSUBSTANTIAL...A MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TURNS BILL ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD COURSE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION\r\nIS THE UKMET WHICH INSISTS ON A MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS INITIALLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE CERTAIN INITIAL POSITION...BUT\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nBILL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY\r\nLOW SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST UNDER 27C THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS. SIMILAR TO BEFORE...THE GFDL/HWRF INDICATE A NEARLY FLAT\r\nRATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...PERHAPS\r\nREFLECTING MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. IN SPITE OF THIS...THE SHIPS\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS CONTINUED FORECASTING A RATHER HIGH\r\nPROBABILITY OF A 30 KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A CONDUCIVE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO BECOME A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...CLOSEST TO\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL IS SEPARATED FROM ITS FAVORABLE...UPPER-\r\nLEVEL SUPPORT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nINDICATES MINOR WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS AS IF THE CENTER OF BILL WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO NOAA\r\nBUOY 41041 LATER THIS MORNING. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 13.8N  44.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.4N  46.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 15.1N  49.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  51.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 17.3N  54.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N  59.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N  63.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 30.1N  66.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 17 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BILL CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH A UNIFORM CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AROUND THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 4.5\r\nFROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1132 UTC TRMM PASS\r\nSHOWS SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDS SPIRALING AROUND THE CENTER...BUT NO\r\nEVIDENCE OF AN EYE. BILL SHOULD PASS VERY CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY 41041\r\nIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD HELP PROVIDE INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE WINDS AND CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nTHE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE SHIPS RI INDEX SHOWS A 35 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF AN INCREASE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BILL DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL\r\nDEFINED INNER CORE STRUCTURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nOBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW THE INTENSITY\r\nLEVELING OFF...WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL SHOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A PEAK IN INTENSITY AT DAYS 3 AND 4...AND A SLIGHT\r\nDECREASE AT DAY 5. \r\n\r\nBILL CONTINUES ON A HEADING OF 285/14...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW\r\nOF A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM\r\nAFRICA. GLOBAL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A PERSISTENT\r\nMID-ATLANTIC TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 53W WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 3. BEYOND THIS\r\nTIME...THE FLOW AROUND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT\r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD INDUCE A MORE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH\r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.\r\nTHE UKMET HAS A MUCH STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN THE REST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. AS A\r\nRESULT...THIS MODEL KEEPS BILL TOO FAR SOUTH TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF\r\nTHE CLOSED LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH DAY 3...AND\r\nIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS\r\n4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 0920 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 14.1N  45.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.7N  47.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  50.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.6N  52.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N  55.1W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N  60.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N  64.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 31.5N  66.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009\r\n\r\nCORRECTED BUOY ID TO 41041\r\n \r\nBILL IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF DEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES...\r\nWITH HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nEXPANDING COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE\r\n4.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. BILL PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH OF\r\nNOAA BUOY 41041 THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 972 MB AT 1800 UTC WITH A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 51 KT. BASED ON \r\nTHESE DATA...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 969 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE\r\nENVIRONMENT AROUND THE CYCLONE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. OCEAN TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE TRACK...AND\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM. AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW\r\nA BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL\r\nSHOW ARE STRONGER LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PEAKING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM BEFORE SHOWING SOME WEAKENING AT DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THROUGH THAT TIME THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO\r\nTHE LEFT....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...WHICH HAS FINALLY\r\nTRENDED TOWARD A RECURVATURE SCENARIO. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW\r\nSHOW BILL INTERACTING WITH A LARGE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF\r\nTHE TROUGH THAT WILL BE CRUCIAL TO WHEN AND WHERE BILL RECURVES.\r\nINTERESTINGLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AT 5\r\nDAYS...BUT NOW LIE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...\r\nWITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN EVEN FARTHER EAST. GIVEN THE SPREAD IN \r\nTHE GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF/GFS BLEND.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS A GOOD TIME TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY THAT EXISTS IN\r\nTRACK FORECASTING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE NHC\r\nTRACK ERRORS ARE TYPICALLY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 14.6N  46.7W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.2N  48.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N  51.3W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.4N  53.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 18.8N  56.4W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 22.5N  61.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 27.0N  65.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 33.1N  67.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 17 2009\r\n \r\nBILL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS GENERATING VERY DEEP...COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...THOUGH\r\nTHERE ARE SOME EVIDENT ASYMMETRIES.  SATELLITE PICTURES ALSO REVEAL\r\nAN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS CANOPY...SUGGESTIVE OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED AN ABSENCE\r\nOF INNER CORE FEATURES...BUT A 2229 SSMIS PASS SUGGESTS THAT BILL\r\nMAY BE FINALLY FORMING AN INNER CORE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND\r\n5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO PREVENT BILL FROM INTENSIFYING\r\nFURTHER DURING THE SEVERAL DAYS...AS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nON AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  PERHAPS THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE\r\nFLUCTUATIONS WITHIN THE INNER CORE FOR WHICH THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO\r\nFORECAST SKILL.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT BILL\r\nSHOULD REACH A PEAK IN INTENSITY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  TOWARD THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PREDICTING A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS BILL BEGINS TO BECOME MORE\r\nDISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND AFTER\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/15.  THE\r\nFORECAST RATIONALE REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A WEAKNESS ALONG 50-55W IS\r\nFORECAST TO ERODE A LARGE PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC BEGINNING AS SOON AS 24 HOURS FROM NOW.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT BILL HAS\r\nMAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO BEND MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST BY 48-72 HOURS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...BILL SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nON A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TRACK WHERE IT SHOULD BEGIN\r\nENCOUNTERING THE EFFECTS OF A DIGGING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT ALL THAT\r\nDIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...WITH ONLY COSMETIC\r\nCHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON THE MOST RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS.  BILL IS FORECAST TO GROW A LITTLE MORE IN\r\nSIZE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE\r\nGFS SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY BECOME EVEN LARGER THAN INDICATED IN THE\r\nNHC FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 15.0N  48.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N  50.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N  52.8W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 18.1N  55.3W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 19.7N  57.8W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N  62.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 28.5N  66.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 34.5N  68.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009\r\n \r\nTRMM DATA FROM 0223 UTC AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT\r\nBILL IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WITH THE COLDEST\r\nCLOUD TOPS CURRENTLY IN THE OUTER CONVECTIVE RING.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS DUE TO THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15.  BILL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A SERIES OF\r\nTROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  ONE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NORTHEAST OF\r\nBERMUDA...MOVING SOUTHWARD.  A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD.  FINALLY...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nIS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BETWEEN\r\n72-120 HR.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BILL SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGHS...BUT THERE IS SOME NOTABLE\r\nSPREAD IN WHERE AND WHEN.  THE ECMWF...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...\r\nAND THE BAM MODELS TURN BILL NORTHWARD BETWEEN 62W-65W IN RESPONSE\r\nTO THE FIRST TWO TROUGHS.  THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nCALLS FOR THE NORTHWARD TURN BETWEEN 65W-70W...DUE TO LESS RESPONSE\r\nTO THE FIRST TWO TROUGHS AND THE EVENTUAL EFFECT OF THE THIRD\r\nTROUGH.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS IN THE WESTERN CLUSTER...\r\nAND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON TO JUMP THE FORECAST TO THE EASTERN\r\nCLUSTER.  THEREFORE...THE NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nWESTERN GUIDANCE CLUSTER AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBILL IS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD INTENSIFY AFTER THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS\r\nOVER...WITH ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTING IT TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n110 KT IN 48 HR.  AFTER 48 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nBILL TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nDURING THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.5N  49.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.2N  51.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.4N  54.2W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 18.9N  56.7W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 20.5N  59.0W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 24.0N  63.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  67.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 35.5N  68.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE WITH\r\nOUTFLOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE EYE OF BILL IS\r\nQUITE LARGE...MEASURING ABOUT 35-40 NM IN DIAMETER.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.  A HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT WAS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE\r\nREMNANTS OF ANA HAS BEEN TASKED TO FLY INTO BILL THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nDATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE\r\nINTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  BILL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  A COUPLE OF TROUGHS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW BILL TO\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO DURING THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nMOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON DAY 4 AND 5.  THE MODELS\r\nRESPOND BY TURNING THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AT THAT TIME...HOWEVER\r\nTHERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THAT WILL OCCUR.\r\nAS BEFORE...THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nMODEL ENVELOPE...WHILE THE UKMET AND HWRF ARE ON THE LEFT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD...BUT REMAINS\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nBILL IS IN A CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nAND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND TOPS OUT AT 110 KT...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS GRADUAL WEAKENING AT\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.9N  51.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.8N  53.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N  55.3W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 19.6N  57.7W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N  60.3W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 25.9N  64.7W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 31.5N  67.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 38.0N  66.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009\r\n \r\nBILL REMAINS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nBILL THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 114\r\nKT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE SFMR OBSERVED MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nAROUND 85 KT IN EACH QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE.  USING A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 95 KT.\r\nTHIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n90 AND 102 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BILL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A\r\nWEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nAHEAD OF A STRONG TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CHANGED VERY LITTLE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...BUT HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS BEFORE THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE ON THE RIGHT\r\nSIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH DAY 2...AND HAS NOT BEEN\r\nADJUSTED APPRECIABLY BEYOND THAT TIME AS WELL.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE USUALLY\r\nWELL-PERFORMING ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND SSTS GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...DECREASING SSTS AND INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE SLOW WEAKENING.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.6N  52.2W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N  54.3W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.9N  56.9W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 20.7N  59.3W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 22.6N  61.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 27.3N  65.8W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 33.5N  68.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 40.5N  65.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH\r\nMISSION IN BILL AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT BILL\r\nHAS UNDERGONE A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND IS NOW A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.  HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN 126 KT AT\r\n700 MB...WITH THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952 MB AT 0202 UTC.\r\nTHE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 100 KT.  THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE UW CIMSS\r\nOBJECTIVE ADVANCED DVORAK VALUES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 7.0. \r\nBLENDING THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND DROPSONDE WINDS\r\nWITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH ARE\r\nVERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY.  REGARDLESS...BILL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MARCHES INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.  TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL BE DECREASING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nSOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TAKING A TOLL.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING AROUND\r\n96 HOURS...WITH A MORE DECIDED RATE OF WEAKENING NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nBASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 295/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED.  BILL IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD INTO A\r\nSIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...WHERE IT WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nSTEERING FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE OFFICIAL TRACK IN THE MIDDLE OF GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 17.2N  53.4W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 18.4N  55.4W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 20.0N  58.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 21.8N  60.5W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 23.8N  62.9W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 29.0N  67.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 35.0N  68.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 42.0N  64.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009\r\n\r\nBILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED 25-30 N MI WIDE EYE WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS\r\nTO NEAR -80C.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\n115 KT AT 06Z...AND THE CURRENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE SUGGESTS A\r\nSLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM.  BASED ON THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115 KT.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 295-300 DEGREES AT 14 KT.  BILL IS ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N60W AND A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH N OF 30N BETWEEN 69W-75W.  THESE FEATURES ARE\r\nCURRENTLY CREATING A WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS FORECAST BILL TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THIS WEAKNESS DURING THE NEXT\r\n48-72 HR...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE EARLIEST TURN AND THE\r\nNOGAPS/UKMET SHOWING THE LATEST TURN.  AFTER THAT...A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD\r\nCAUSE BILL TO RECURVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE IS A\r\nLARGE MODEL SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED AFTER 72 HR...WITH\r\nTHE NOGAPS ON ONE SIDE BRINGING BILL NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE\r\nCORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS ON THE OTHER SIDE CALLING FOR A SHARP\r\nTURN OUT TO SEA.  OVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO\r\nLIKEWISE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nBILL HAS STRENGTHENED IN SPITE OF BEING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\n10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 12 HR...SO\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  BY 48-72 HR...BILL SHOULD\r\nINTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST.  THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHEAR...SO\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...BILL SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...\r\nWHICH ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE...MAY PRODUCE SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND OF THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 18.0N  54.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N  56.8W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 20.6N  59.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 22.5N  62.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 24.4N  64.4W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 29.5N  68.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 36.0N  68.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 44.0N  62.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2009\r\n \r\nA NOAA P-3 PLANE ON A RESEARCH MISSION HAS BEEN PROVIDING EXCELLENT\r\nDATA FROM BILL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE WAS A PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 132 KNOTS TWO HOURS AGO AND THE SFMR REPORTED\r\nPEAK WINDS AROUND 105 KNOTS. DATA FROM THE PLANE ALSO SHOW THAT\r\nBILL HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND A 30 NMI WIDE EYE. THE LATEST\r\nEXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 950 MB. ALTHOUGH THE RING\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE HAS\r\nWEAKENED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE T-NUMBERS REMAIN\r\nAROUND 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT\r\nIN THIS ADVISORY. THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS HEADING FOR A WARMER OCEAN\r\nAND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN\r\nTHIS PERIOD CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS...THE OCEAN IS COOLER AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN...\r\nBUT BILL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH FIVE DAYS.     \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND BILL CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS AROUND\r\nTHE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FORCING\r\nBILL TO TURN NORTHWARD A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH IN FACT HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN\r\nTURNING BILL NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...BERMUDA\r\nAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 18.7N  56.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 19.9N  58.3W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 21.7N  61.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N  63.5W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 26.0N  65.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 32.0N  68.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 38.5N  67.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 47.0N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BILL IS AN IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE\r\nWITH MESOCYCLONES NOTED IN THE EYE...CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS AND A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN.  AN FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER RECENTLY MEASURED 135 KT AT 700 MB...ALONG WITH\r\nSFMR WINDS OF 103 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 947 MB. IN\r\nADDITION...THERE WAS AN SFMR MEASUREMENT OF 106 KT FROM THE NOAA\r\nMISSION THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION ARE 127 KT FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 115 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF ALL THESE DATA.\r\n\r\nVERY WARM WATERS ARE ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS WHETHER THE UPPER ENVIRONMENT\r\nWILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.   A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGHS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INDUCE SOME SHEAR ON BILL...ONE ALONG\r\n60W AND OTHER AT ABOUT 70W.  WHILE THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHETHER\r\nTHE FIRST TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE HURRICANE MUCH...MOST MODELS SHOW\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING IN A COUPLE DAYS AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nSECOND FEATURE.  IN ADDITION...AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD\r\nOCCUR AT ANY TIME WITH A SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM NOTED AT ABOUT 75 N\r\nMI FROM THE CENTER IN AIRCRAFT DATA.  REGARDLESS...ALL OF THE\r\nRELIABLE MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THAT\r\nLIKELIHOOD.  \r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER...NOW\r\n305/17.  STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP BILL ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE.  SOME OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...NOW\r\nSHOW A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A\r\nSLOWER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nIF THIS SOLUTION IS CORRECT...BILL WOULD BE ABLE TO MOVE A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER TO THE WEST BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE AFTERNOON\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.  THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO POINT OUT THAT THERE IS A LOT OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG-RANGE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST AND ONE\r\nSHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.  \r\n\r\nBECAUSE BILL IS A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE...SWELLS TRIGGERED BY\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE\r\nBAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY\r\nDANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT\r\nSTATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 19.8N  57.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 21.1N  59.7W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 23.0N  62.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 25.2N  64.6W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 27.9N  66.6W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 34.0N  69.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 42.0N  65.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 51.5N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO BILL\r\nINDICATE THAT IT IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140 KT...AND\r\nA DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL MEASURED A MEAN\r\nWIND OF 134 KT OVER THE THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF SOUNDING.  THE\r\nSFMR MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WINDS OF 108 KT.  USING A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE DATA SUPPORT A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nBILL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305/15.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT ON THIS GENERAL\r\nCOURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...A BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND BILL\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nBY THE WEEKEND.  OVERALL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD\r\nCONSISTENCY DURING THE LAST DAY OR TWO...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WHICH REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED THEREAFTER.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER\r\nTHAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE LONGER RANGES...SO ONE\r\nSHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nBILL IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALONG 70W\r\nMAY CAUSE IN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE STRONG DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nTHE STRONG TROUGH AND COOLING SSTS SHOULD IMPART A MORE RAPID RATE\r\nOF WEAKENING.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL BEGINNING TO INTERACT\r\nWITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN\r\nU.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.\r\nPLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR\r\nMORE DETAILS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 20.7N  58.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 22.1N  60.9W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 24.1N  63.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 26.6N  65.6W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 29.4N  67.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 36.0N  69.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 45.0N  62.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 53.0N  44.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2009\r\n \r\nDURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 123 KT WINDS AT\r\n700 MB...WHICH IS DOWN ALMOST 20 KT FROM EARLIER.  AN EYEWALL\r\nDROPSONDE SUGGESTS THE SURFACE WINDS IN THAT AREA WERE 105-110 KT. \r\nBASED ON THIS AND A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE SATELLITE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.  ANALYSES\r\nFROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT BILL HAS BEEN\r\nEXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS MAY BE\r\nSTARTING TO DIMINISH...AS THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS INCREASING IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/16.  BILL IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY TWO MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...ONE\r\nTO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND ONE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...CAUSING BILL TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nMORE NORTHWARD AS THE SYSTEMS INTERACT.  AFTER 48 HR...ALL GUIDANCE\r\nFORECASTS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...WITH A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER BILL NORTHWARD AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 48-72 HR...THEN BECOME SOMEWHAT\r\nDIVERGENT IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.  THE GFDN AND NOGAPS ARE ON\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRINGING THE CENTER OF\r\nBILL JUST SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND THEN OVER NOVA SCOTIA AND\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODELS CALL FOR A MUCH\r\nSHARPER EASTWARD TURN...KEEPING THE CENTER WELL AWAY FROM NEW\r\nENGLAND AND CANADA.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES\r\nAND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST OVERALL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BILL WILL\r\nPROBABLY NOT TURN AS SHARPLY BETWEEN 72-96 HR AS IMPLIED BY THE\r\nTRACK GRAPHIC...AND THUS IS LIKELY TO PASS CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND\r\nTHAN THE GRAPHIC WOULD SUGGEST.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CURRENT SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND THIS BASIS SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST UNCERTAIN DURING THE\r\n24-72 HR TIME FRAME AS BILL INTERACTS WITH THE CURRENT WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH COULD CAUSE SHEAR TO WEAKEN THE\r\nSYSTEM.  HOWEVER...SOME OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nINCREASED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER BILL...WHICH COULD STRENGTHEN\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  FOR NOW...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH AS A COMPROMISE.  AFTER 72 HR...BILL SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nINTO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD\r\nBEGIN AROUND 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS...THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA AND MOST OF THE EASTERN\r\nU.S. COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.\r\nPLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR\r\nMORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 21.6N  60.3W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 23.0N  62.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 25.2N  64.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 27.8N  66.5W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 30.8N  68.1W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 38.5N  68.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 46.6N  59.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 53.5N  36.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":21,"Date":"2009-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2009\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE...MICROWAVE IMAGES AND NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS WEAKENED A\r\nLITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME OPEN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS WERE 121 AND\r\n93 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY...EARLIER THIS MORNING. IN FACT...SOME ARC\r\nCLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE SUGGESTING THAT BILL IS\r\nNOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 105 KNOTS...AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON\r\nTHE HIGH SIDE.  THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nREINTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS ABOUT TO ENCOUNTER THE WARMEST\r\nWATERS ALONG ITS PATH SO FAR...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nQUITE LIGHT.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY CHANGE COULD BE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CATEGORY\r\nFOUR AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY 96\r\nHOURS IT SHOULD BE IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND BE FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\nBILL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE ON A STEADY NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305\r\nDEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SURROUNDING THE\r\nAZORES-BERMUDA HIGH.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME\r\nSTEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. ONCE THE RECURVATURE\r\nBEGINS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST COMPARED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS RUN. THIS SHIFT IN GUIDANCE JUSTIFIES A VERY SMALL SHIFT\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE TRACK OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH INDEED IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS AND SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...\r\nMOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST...AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF\r\nCANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.\r\nPLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR\r\nMORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON NOAA AND THE 53RD HURRICANE HUNTERS WILL BE\r\nCONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND\r\nHURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE NUMERICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 22.6N  61.7W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.2N  63.8W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 26.6N  66.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 29.5N  67.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  69.0W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 40.5N  66.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 48.0N  53.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 55.0N  28.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":22,"Date":"2009-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009\r\n \r\nBOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN SENDING VERY\r\nVALUABLE DATA FROM HURRICANE BILL. THE LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS\r\nDOWN TO 948 MB AND THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS 135 KNOTS. THE\r\nSFMR REPORTED EARLIER A PEAK WIND OF 101 KNOTS.  SINCE THEN...THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED AND THE EYE IS NOW BETTER\r\nDEFINED. IN FACT...GOES SATELLITE SUPER-RAPID SCAN SHOWS THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL AND SEVERAL MESOVORTICES INSIDE THE\r\nEYE...TYPICAL OF STRONG HURRICANES. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND\r\nTHE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO 110 KNOTS.  THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONTINUES TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SINCE BILL IS ABOUT\r\nTO ENCOUNTER THE WARMEST WATERS ALONG ITS PATH SO FAR.\r\nFURTHERMORE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BILL EMBEDDED IN A WELL DEFINED\r\n200 MB ANTICYCLONE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR RESTRENGTHENING AND BILL IS EXPECTED TO REACH\r\nCATEGORY FOUR STATUS AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH\r\nA MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BY 96 HOURS IT SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS PRACTICALLY NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. BILL IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN VERY\r\nSTRONG AND WELL DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND THE FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTHERLY AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTERLY TRACK.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...INCREASING\r\nCONSIDERABLY THE CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THAT\r\nPERIOD.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER\r\nTHE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES SATURDAY MORNING AND BY SUNDAY...THE HURRICANE WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. \r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND SHOULD BEGIN\r\nAFFECTING THE BAHAMAS...BERMUDA...MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nCOAST...AND THE ATLANTIC MARITIMES OF CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nYOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA AND THE 53RD AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ARE\r\nCURRENTLY CONDUCTING A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION\r\nAROUND HURRICANE BILL TO IMPROVE THE INITIAL ANALYSIS FOR THE\r\nNUMERICAL MODELS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED FOR THE 0000\r\nUTC MODEL RUN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 23.8N  63.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 25.6N  65.2W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 28.3N  67.1W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 31.0N  68.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 34.5N  69.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 42.5N  64.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 49.0N  49.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 53.5N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":23,"Date":"2009-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF BILL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.\r\nTHE LARGE EYE REMAINS VERY WELL-DEFINED...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nSURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS. THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE\r\nCORE OF THE HURRICANE THIS EVENING REPORTED A PEAK BELIEVABLE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 127 KT.  ALTHOUGH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WERE\r\nREPORTED...THE METEOROLOGISTS ON THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT CONSIDER\r\nTHOSE HIGHER WINDS TO BE VALID.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED SLIGHTLY.  BASED ON ALL OF THE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 110 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  AFTERWARDS...SOME COOLING OF THE SSTS WILL LIKELY INDUCE A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING TREND.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS PREDICTED BY THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL TO REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE HURRICANE NEARS THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL BEGIN TO COOL MORE RAPIDLY AROUND THAT TIME...AND SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY VERY SOON THEREAFTER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE  \r\n \r\nBILL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/16 KT. THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nNEW TO SAY ABOUT THE TRACK FORECAST.  BILL IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND RECURVE AHEAD\r\nOF THAT TROUGH THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONCE AGAIN IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE ARE AFFECTING...OR WILL\r\nAFFECT...A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY\r\nDANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT\r\nSTATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A TWO-AIRCRAFT SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION CONDUCTED BY\r\nNOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING SHOULD BE\r\nASSIMILATED INTO THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 24.9N  64.3W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 26.9N  66.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.6N  67.9W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 32.7N  68.9W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 36.4N  68.6W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 44.3N  62.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 50.5N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 55.0N  20.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":24,"Date":"2009-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009\r\n\r\nNEAR 06Z UTC..AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED\r\nA 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KT...AND AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE\r\nINDICATED SURFACE WINDS NEAR 105 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE OF BILL HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE\r\nEYE NOW BARELY APPARENT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE A POSSIBLY\r\nGENEROUS 105 KT BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AFFECTING BILL...AND THIS MAY BE ALLOWING DRY AIR SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA TO REACH THE\r\nCORE OF THE HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/15.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BILL IS MOVING TOWARD AN\r\nINCREASING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nRECURVE AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH SOME NORTHWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR...THEN IS ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTH AT SUBSEQUENT TIMES TO ALIGN WITH THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY PROBLEMATIC.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING BILL TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT THROUGH 72 HR...BUT THE MODEL HAS BEEN UNDERESTIMATING\r\nTHE ONGOING SHEAR FOR THE PAST 24 HR.  BILL IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28-29C...BUT THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 24 HR.  ANOTHER COMPLICATION IS\r\nTHE POSSIBLE IMPACT OF THE JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN\r\nU. S. TROUGH...WHICH COULD HELP THE HURRICANE MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH\r\nOR EVEN INTENSIFY IT A LITTLE.  AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE\r\nMOST FAVORABLE JET STREAM DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEST OF BILL.  BASED\r\nON THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE FIRST PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD...WITH ONLY A MODEST RE-INTENSIFICATION\r\nBETWEEN 12-24 HR AS SHOWN IN THE SHIPS MODEL.  THEREAFTER...BILL\r\nSHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER COLDER WATERS...WITH EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION EXPECTED AT ABOUT 96 HR.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS\r\nTHAT BILL WEAKENS FURTHER EVEN BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COLDER\r\nWATER...AND WEAKENS FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AFTER THAT. \r\n\r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION\r\nOF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nYOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 26.2N  65.4W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 28.1N  66.9W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 31.1N  68.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 34.6N  68.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 38.6N  67.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 46.5N  58.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 52.5N  33.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 56.5N  15.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":25,"Date":"2009-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2009\r\n \r\nAFTER SOME DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN EARLY THIS\r\nMORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME \r\nAPPARENT AGAIN ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS DISTINCT IT WAS YESTERDAY. \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EYEWALL\r\nWITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND.  AT THIS POINT IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nKNOW WHETHER THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY\r\nEYEWALL.  IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WAS \r\nRELATED TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST\r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS INDICATE THAT INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY CAN BE ADJUSTED DOWN TO 100 KT.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.  THE HURRICANE\r\nSTILL HAS TO MOVE OVER THE WARMEST OCEAN YET TODAY AND\r\nSATURDAY...AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\nBILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE BUT MOST LIKELY THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SHEAR AND A COLDER OCEAN SHOULD WORK\r\nAGAINST INTENSIFICATION AND BILL SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nBILL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS WHILE\r\nEMBEDDED IN VERY WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH. BILL IS ALREADY REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE RIDGE AND SOON WILL BECOME STEERED NORTHWARD AND\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE TWO\r\nFEATURES ARE BEING HANDLED CONSISTENTLY ACROSS MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AND CONSEQUENTLY THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED. THE FACT THAT TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nINCREASES MY CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.    \r\n\r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION\r\nOF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nYOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE\r\nDETAILS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 27.6N  66.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 29.8N  67.7W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 33.0N  68.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 36.5N  68.4W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 48.5N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 53.5N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 57.5N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":26,"Date":"2009-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED BILL THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AND FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND\r\n954 MB...BUT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW\r\n90 KT. THE PLANE REPORTED A SMALL EYE OF 14 N MI DIAMETER.\r\nGIVEN THE CONCENTRIC RING STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE AND THE\r\nDOUBLE WIND MAXIMA PROVIDED BY THE PLANE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THE REASON\r\nFOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BILL TO\r\nREGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR\r\nIS LOW AND BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND BY 72 HOURS...BILL\r\nSHOULD ALREADY BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nHIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nBILL IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 17\r\nKNOTS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AROUND\r\nTHE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE FORCED TO\r\nRECURVE AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...MAINTAINING\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS HURRICANE WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION\r\nOF THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.  PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nYOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE\r\nDETAILS.\r\n \r\nAT THIS TIME...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH\r\nNEW ENGLAND.  HOWEVER...A SLIGHT SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE\r\nLEFT WOULD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING TONIGHT.  THE\r\nWIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS ROUGHLY A 25\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF THESE WINDS REACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW\r\nENGLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 29.4N  66.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 31.7N  68.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 35.1N  68.4W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 39.0N  67.2W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 43.0N  64.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 49.5N  47.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 54.5N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 60.0N   6.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":27,"Date":"2009-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2009\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF BILL HAS CONTINUED TO EVOLVE THIS EVENING...WITH\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING THE REMNANT OF AN INNER EYEWALL AND THE\r\nFORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL. ALSO...THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SIGNS OF\r\nA LARGER EYE TRYING TO FORM IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY IN\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. OVERALL...THE CLOUD PATTERN LOOKS LESS\r\nIMPRESSIVE...AS COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n90 KT BASED ON 0000 UTC DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY IN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE BILL AND WILL\r\nPROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nIF BILL IS ABLE TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...THERE IS\r\nSOME OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nTHE HURRICANE CROSSES THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM...AND\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THERE\r\nIS THE POSSIBILITY THAT BILL COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE THAN\r\nSHOWN HERE...AS THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY TABLE SHOWS ABOUT A 30 TO\r\n35 PERCENT CHANCE THAT BILL WILL BE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IN 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nCYCLONE ENCOUNTERS MUCH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nINCREASING WIND SHEAR. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOCCUR IN TWO OR THREE DAYS...AND THE WIND RADII AND INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS ATTEMPT TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/17. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nVERY GOOD AGREEMENT...ACCELERATING BILL TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS A RESULT...ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nYOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE\r\nDETAILS.\r\n \r\nWHILE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH\r\nNEW ENGLAND...A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD\r\nREQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING ON\r\nSATURDAY. THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A 15 TO 20\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REACHING EXTREME\r\nSOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM A 2322 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS...DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41048 AND OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nBERMUDA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 31.0N  67.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 33.5N  68.1W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 37.3N  67.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 41.3N  65.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 45.1N  59.9W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 50.5N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 55.0N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 60.5N   6.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":28,"Date":"2009-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT BILL HAS JUST ABOUT FINISHED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...\r\nAND NOW HAS A 48 N MI WIDE EYE.  THE AIRCRAFT ENCOUNTERED 120 KT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL...AND A\r\nDROPSONDE IN THE AREA SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS OF 90 KT.  THE MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 960 MB.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nBILL HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/19.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE. \r\nBILL IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-48 HR BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER 48 HR...THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nBILL SHOULD REMAIN IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THUS THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME. \r\nAFTER 24 HR...COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BILL TO\r\nWEAKEN.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT\r\nTHE 48 HR PERIOD AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...AND THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nREMNANTS OF BILL ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY CROSS THE\r\nATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ALONG THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nYOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE\r\nDETAILS.\r\n\r\nTHE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MASSACHUSETTS COAST...AND THE WIND\r\nSPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT NOW SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THAT AREA.  ANY ADDITIONAL TRACK\r\nDEVIATIONS TO THE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS ALONG THE\r\nNEW ENGLAND COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 33.0N  68.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 36.1N  68.7W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 40.1N  67.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 44.1N  63.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 48.0N  55.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 51.0N  31.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 54.0N  14.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 58.0N   4.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":29,"Date":"2009-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BILL HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND THE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 85 KNOTS AND THIS VALUE COULD\r\nBE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL CHECK BILL THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nWILL GIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII. BILL\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH TODAY BUT WITH COLD WATERS\r\nAHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AND BY 72 HOURS\r\nBILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES ABOUT 20 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH\r\nAND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO RECURVE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BECAUSE THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA\r\nIN 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS FOR EASTERN REGIONS OF CANADA.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE\r\nWEEKEND...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP\r\nCURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER\r\nOFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 35.1N  68.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 38.0N  68.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 42.5N  65.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 46.0N  59.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 49.5N  49.4W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 52.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 58.0N   9.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 63.0N   5.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":30,"Date":"2009-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST PENETRATED AND SURVEYED HURRICANE BILL AND\r\nALTHOUGH IT MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 961 MB...THE\r\nSURFACE WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE HAVE DECREASED...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KNOTS. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE BEEN BETWEEN 4.0 AND 5.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. BILL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL HOURS BUT WITH COLD WATERS AHEAD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT. BILL SHOULD BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS AFTER THE CENTER PASSES NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. BILL IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 21 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE AZORES-BERMUDA HIGH\r\nAND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FORCE BILL TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE TIGHTLY PACKED...RESULTING IN HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS BILL TO THE WATERS JUST SOUTH\r\nOF NOVA SCOTIA IN 24 HOURS AND VERY NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nBETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AS A WEAKENING CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD\r\nTONIGHT AND SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SURF AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nYOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR MORE\r\nDETAILS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 37.1N  68.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 40.2N  67.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 44.2N  63.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 48.0N  54.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 50.0N  43.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 52.0N  20.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 57.0N   7.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 64.0N   2.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":31,"Date":"2009-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2009\r\n \r\nAFTER DIMINISHING FOR A TIME...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nRECENT INCREASE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER OF BILL. WHILE THE EYE IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS AT LEAST A\r\nPARTIAL EYEWALL NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON FINAL CI-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING BILL LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY\r\nMORNING...AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE\r\nLOCATION...STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF BILL.\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BILL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING JUST EAST\r\nOF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/22. THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE OF\r\nBILL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND LIES NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...\r\nSHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nLIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AS THE POST-TROPICAL BILL APPROACHES THE BRITISH\r\nISLES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nBILL WILL SOON BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM\r\nAND INTO A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THAT BILL WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE TRANSITION PROCESS BY EARLY\r\nMONDAY AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST...\r\nALONG WITH A LARGE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND RADII...AS BILL\r\nCOMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. \r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD\r\nINTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS\r\nSURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS\r\nISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR\r\nMORE DETAILS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 39.1N  67.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 42.3N  65.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 46.3N  59.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 49.3N  49.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 51.0N  37.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 53.0N  16.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 60.0N   6.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 64.0N   4.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":32,"Date":"2009-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009\r\n\r\nCORRECTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE\r\nTO SURROUND THE CLOUD-FILLED EYE OF BILL.  RECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES\r\nHAVE BEEN TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE EYE-FEATURE SEEN IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTING SOME VERTICAL TILT TO THE HURRICANE. \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n97 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 68 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MEAN WIND OF 98 KT IN THE LOWEST\r\n150 METERS OF THE SOUNDING.  THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025/23.  BILL IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND RECURVE AHEAD OF A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nBILL WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND\r\nOVER MUCH COOLER WATERS VERY SOON.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BILL\r\nSHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER TODAY AND BECOME\r\nFULLY EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  AFTER TRANSITION IS\r\nCOMPLETE...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII HAS BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nBASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY BILL ARE STILL AFFECTING THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD\r\nINTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TODAY...CAUSING EXTREMELY DANGEROUS\r\nSURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS\r\nISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES FOR\r\nMORE DETAILS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 41.2N  66.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 44.1N  63.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 47.5N  55.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 49.8N  43.8W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 50.5N  31.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 54.0N  10.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 61.0N   2.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":33,"Date":"2009-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2009\r\n \r\nAFTER THE LAST AIR FORCE MISSION INTO BILL....JUST BEFORE 1200\r\nUTC...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE\r\nLESS TROPICAL.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n105 KT OVER THE EASTERN QUADRANT AROUND 1100 UTC.  TYPICALLY THIS\r\nWOULD SUPPORT A HIGHER INTENSITY OF GREATER THAN 75 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS...IT IS\r\nBECOMING INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT FOR IT TO TRANSPORT STRONG WINDS TO\r\nTHE SURFACE.  GIVEN THAT...ALONG WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KT.  BILL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN A DAY OR SO AND\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MERGE WITH A BROADER\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION IS AROUND 045/29.  BILL SHOULD CONTINUE ACCELERATING\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nLIKELY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nATLANTIC.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nLARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL BE IMPACTING\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SWELLS ALONG THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD BE DIMINISHING TODAY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 43.3N  64.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 46.3N  59.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 49.0N  49.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 50.8N  37.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 52.5N  26.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 57.0N   8.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":34,"Date":"2009-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009\r\n \r\nBILL IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING WHILE LOSING SOME OF ITS TROPICAL\r\nAPPEARANCE. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nDETERIORATING...WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AND\r\nTHE DEEPEST CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY\r\n...AND THE ASSUMPTION OF A CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING AS BILL\r\nTRAVERSES COOLER WATERS...YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING...\r\nAND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 96 HOURS\r\nBILL IS PREDICTED TO HAVE MERGED WITH A LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION\r\nNEAR THE BRITISH ISLES.\r\n \r\nBILL HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW 050/030. SOME FURTHER ACCELERATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND 36 HOURS...SOME SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF BILL\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.\r\n \r\nLARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL CONTINUE\r\nIMPACTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...\r\nWHILE SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO SUBSIDE TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 45.1N  60.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 47.7N  54.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 50.0N  43.8W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 51.5N  32.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 52.5N  21.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 57.0N   5.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bill","Adv":35,"Date":"2009-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2009\r\n \r\nBILL STILL HAS STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A FRAGMENT OF AN EYEWALL\r\nVISIBLE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 2304 UTC SSMIS PASS. BASED ON\r\nTHE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE...AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAT 0000 UTC...BILL IS MAINTAINED AS A 65 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nBILL HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/35. BILL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...BILL WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS\r\nIT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nLOCATED SOUTHWEST OF ICELAND. BILL WILL EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO\r\nTHIS LARGER CIRCULATION BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBILL IS BEGINNING TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER IN\r\nTHE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET CORE CENTERED ALONG\r\n55N. ALSO...DATA FROM A 2226 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH NUMEROUS\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE WIND FIELD OF BILL HAS BEGUN TO\r\nEXPAND...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT BILL WILL COMPLETE THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET WILL HELP\r\nMAINTAIN BILL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS BILL MOVES ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHERN ATLANTIC. AS BILL BECOMES FULLY EXTRATROPICAL...THE WIND\r\nFIELD WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nLARGE AND DANGEROUS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH BILL WILL CONTINUE\r\nIMPACTING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...\r\nWHILE SWELLS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 47.1N  55.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 49.1N  47.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 50.8N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 52.2N  24.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 53.5N  14.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 61.0N   2.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":36,"Date":"2009-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032009\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR AND SURFACE DATA FROM\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND CANADA INDICATE THAT BILL HAS QUICKLY LOST TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nINCREASING ASYMMETRIC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AND COLDEST CLOUD \r\nTOPS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MOVING\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A BAND OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A POLAR JET THAT IS\r\nLOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS 60 KT...WHICH IS BASED PRIMARILY ON BUOY...SHIP...AND\r\nLAND OBSERVATIONS THAT RECORDED 50-56 KT WINDS DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 075/37.  BILL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nRAPIDLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BILL WILL SLOW\r\nDOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SOUTHWEST OF\r\nICELAND IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF BILL WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW\r\nSHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON BILL.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 48.6N  50.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 50.0N  41.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 51.5N  29.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 52.5N  19.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 55.0N  11.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 62.5N   1.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE WFO TAMPA RADAR INDICATE THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nOVERNIGHT. A QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 00Z SUGGESTED THAT THERE PROBABLY\r\nWAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. GIVEN THIS...ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nINITIATED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A SHIP\r\nREPORT FROM A CARNIVAL CRUISE LINE VESSEL OF 40 KT...THIS REPORT IS\r\nNOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SURFACE WINDS. DOPPLER\r\nVELOCITIES FROM THE TAMPA RADAR ALSO DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE EXCELLENT RADAR PRESENTATION\r\nAND DEEP CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT STORM STATUS IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nATTAINED SOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS VERY LOW...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FROM THE HWRF AND GFDL SUGGEST A MIDDLE-RANGE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM BY LANDFALL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT AFTER THE 12 HOUR 45 KT\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY SHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS\r\nAPPROXIMATE TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nA CONSENSUS OF A FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ITS EFFECTS ARE LIKELY\r\nTO REMAIN RATHER CLOSE TO THE PATH OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 27.7N  83.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 29.2N  85.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 31.0N  86.7W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 33.0N  87.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE TAMPA WSR-88D INDICATE\r\nDEVELOPING DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nSTRONGER BANDS MAY NOT YET BE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE...AS NOAA\r\nBUOY 42036 LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IS REPORTING WINDS OF LESS THAN 15 KT. AIRCRAFT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE SHORTLY TO HELP\r\nDETERMINE IF IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH REGIONAL UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE...THE UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nQUITE DIFFLUENT. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSTILL REFLECTS STRENGTHENING JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST WITHIN 48 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS\r\nAPPROXIMATE HEADING UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO A CONSENSUS OF A FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS VERY SMALL AND HAS A LIMITED WIND\r\nFIELD....HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY NEAR THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE\r\nACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN\r\nALABAMA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 28.7N  84.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 30.2N  85.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 32.1N  87.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  88.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-16 18:00:00","Key":"AL042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009\r\n200 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT CLAUDETTE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. BASED ON A MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND 54 KT MEASURED AT AN ELEVATION OF ABOUT 2500\r\nFEET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. THE 12-HOUR\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY IS ALSO ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY FOR ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND THE\r\nCHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1800Z 29.1N  85.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 30.2N  85.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 32.1N  87.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 34.0N  88.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nEARLIER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CLAUDETTE HAD BECOME EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...LIKELY DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER...CONVECTION\r\nHAS RE-FORMED OVER THE CENTER IN THE LAST HOUR. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SUPPORTED BY\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM STATION SGOF1...TYNDALL AFB TOWER C...LOCATED\r\nABOUT 25 MILES OFFSHORE. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT CLAUDETTE\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR\r\nWEAKENS...AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/12. THE TRACK REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CLAUDETTE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...TOWARD THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK CLAUDETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL\r\nTONIGHT IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING\r\nCYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATING NEAR THE\r\nMISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 29.5N  85.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 30.9N  86.6W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 32.7N  87.8W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 34.5N  88.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF\r\n40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.   MODERATE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM...AND\r\nAPPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING.\r\nHOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND IT IS IN THESE\r\nCONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY\r\nOCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.  WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT...THE WINDOW\r\nOF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS\r\nMORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND\r\nREASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND\r\nINLAND FLOODING.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND\r\nWARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 30.2N  86.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 31.3N  87.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  88.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  88.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009\r\n400 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2009\r\n \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT CLAUDETTE\r\nMADE LANDFALL AROUND 0510 UTC...ALONG THE EASTERN END OF SANTA ROSA\r\nISLAND...JUST SOUTHEAST OF FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.  DOPPLER\r\nVELOCITIES HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING AND THERE HAVE NOT BEEN\r\nANY RECENT REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT 35 KT WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE STRONG\r\nCONVECTION OVER WATER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...CLAUDETTE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN  \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  CLAUDETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER MOVES FARTHER\r\nINLAND.  \r\n \r\nCLAUDETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nADVISORY...NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND\r\nINLAND FLOODING.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND\r\nWARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 30.9N  87.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 32.1N  88.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 33.9N  88.9W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 35.8N  89.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EAST OF\r\nTHE BAHAMAS HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...\r\nWITH REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATING THE\r\nSYSTEM WAS BEST DEVELOPED BELOW 12000 FT.  QUIKSCAT DATA AND A FEW\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER SHOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. \r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN TANGLED UP WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FOR THE PAST\r\n24 HR...AND THE STRUCTURE AS MUCH RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM\r\nFLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS MARGINALLY MORE\r\nTROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...HENCE THE DESIGNATION OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/16.  DANNY IS ON THE\r\nNORTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nDECELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nGREAT LAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES\r\nMOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nDANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. \r\nWHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE TO MAKE IT UNCERTAIN WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY\r\nAFFECT.  THE NAM AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DANNY TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HR AND MOVE UP THE\r\nU. S. EASTERN SEABOARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF... AND GFDL SHOW A\r\nMORE EASTERLY TRACK THAT KEEPS DANNY OFFSHORE UNTIL IT REACHES THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE EXTREMES AND IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND\r\nANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK COULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT\r\nAREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY.  THEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO\r\nFOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A CYCLONIC\r\nSHEAR AXIS.  THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR STRENGTHENING...AND\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE 24-36 HR FOR THE\r\nENVIRONMENT TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE\r\nCURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 36 HR.  IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER\r\nSTRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. \r\nAFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED\r\nSHEAR AND THE BEGINNING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST THUS CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT IN 72 HR...THEN BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  HOWEVER...IT IS WEAKER\r\nTHAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 24.9N  70.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.8N  72.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.8N  73.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 30.1N  75.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  67.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 52.0N  53.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DANNY IS VERY DISORGANIZED AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THERE IS NO ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS ARE IN A BAND 100-150 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 49 KT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 40-45 KT FROM THE\r\nSFMR.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1007 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10...UNCERTAIN\r\nBECAUSE THE STORM SEEMS TO BE DECELERATING...AND THE CENTER MAY BE\r\nOCCASIONALLY RE-FORMING DUE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.  THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING.  DANNY IS NORTH OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA AND SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTER EAST OF BERMUDA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nSTEER DANNY GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO. \r\nAFTER THAT...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT\r\nLAKES...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF COAST STATES\r\nMOVING EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nDANNY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. \r\nWHILE THE MODELS AGREE ON THE SCENARIO...THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT LAND AREA DANNY MAY AFFECT.  THE ECMWF...\r\nUKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE\r\nHATTERAS AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS AND GFDL\r\nSHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF HATTERAS AND THEN PASSING NEAR OR\r\nOVER CAPE COD.  THE HWRF AND NOGAPS...AS WELL AS THE CORRECTED\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS...SHOW THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF CAPE COD AND\r\nNEAR OR OVER NOVA SCOTIA.  OVERALL..THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AND LIES NEAR\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY\r\nPARALLEL TO THE U. S. EAST COAST...AND ANY DEVIATION FROM THE TRACK\r\nCOULD MAKE A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN WHAT AREAS GET IMPACTED BY DANNY. \r\nTHEREFORE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS UPPER-LEVEL LOWS NORTH AND SOUTH OF DANNY CONNECTED BY A\r\nCYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS.  THIS IS NOT A IDEAL PATTERN FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND IT MAY TAKE 24 HR OR MORE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nTO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  IN ADDITION...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE STORM FAVORS SLOW STRENGTHENING AT BEST.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST\r\n36 HR.  IT THEN SHOWS A FASTER STRENGTHENING FROM 36-48 HR AS\r\nCONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  AFTER 48 HR...STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN U. S. TROUGHS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE INCREASED SHEAR AND INITIATE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...WHICH COULD START BEFORE DANNY REACHES THE LATITUDE OF\r\nNEW ENGLAND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO REACH 65 KT\r\nIN 72 HR...THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. \r\nHOWEVER...IT REMAINS WEAKER THAN THE FORECASTS OF THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 25.2N  71.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.1N  73.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 28.7N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 31.1N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 47.5N  63.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 53.1N  48.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2009\r\n \r\nAFTER THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LEFT DANNY EARLIER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMED TO SUGGEST THAT A\r\nNEW LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS FORMING FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS DISTORTED AND\r\nLIKELY CONSISTS OF A BROAD CENTER WITH A SHARP SURFACE TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.  NONETHELESS...A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION THIS EVENING DID RELAY SOME\r\nRELIABLE SFMR DATA WHICH SUGGESTED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR\r\n45 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  A DROPSONDE FROM THIS FLIGHT ALSO INDICATED THAT THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO NEAR 1006 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/9...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE REFORMING.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.  DANNY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT IS\r\nSTEERED BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A EASTWARD-MOVING\r\nMID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. \r\nTHEREAFTER...DANNY IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nPARALLELING THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AS IT BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE GREAT LAKES.  IT SHOULD STILL BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS WOULD BRING DANNY\r\nCLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n\r\nALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN DANNY...BUT IT IS\r\nNOT CLEAR WHY THEY MAKE THE CYCLONE SO STRONG.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE TO 40 KT...AND MUCH MORE...ONCE DANNY ACCELERATES TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS MYSTERIOUSLY SHOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO 70-75 KT ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES. \r\nSINCE THIS DOES NOT SEEM VERY REALISTIC...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLIMITS THE INTENSITY AT 65 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nKEEPS DANNY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FIELDS AND FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT\r\nDANNY COULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THE TIME IT IS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND\r\nCOAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 26.0N  71.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.8N  72.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 30.0N  74.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 32.8N  74.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 41.5N  69.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 49.0N  58.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 53.5N  43.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41047 AND THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nHAVE BEEN CRITICAL IN LOCATING THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION\r\nOF DANNY THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE MADE ANOTHER\r\nNORTHWARD REFORMATION. THE AIR FORCE PLANE FOUND 55 KT WINDS AT 850\r\nMB AND DROPSONDE AND RELIABLE SFMR WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT. AN EARLIER\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED 12000 FT WINDS OF 66 KT AND\r\nRELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 45-50 KT. THE NOAA SFMR DATA ALSO\r\nREASONABLY FIT A 2254 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH HAD A FEW 50 KT WIND\r\nBARBS. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT DANNY DOES NOT HAVE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSTRUCTURE AND HAS MOST OF THE STRONG WINDS LOCATED WELL NORTH AND\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nWITH ALL THE CENTER REFORMATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS JUST ABOUT\r\nIMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315/9. DESPITE\r\nTHE INITIAL UNCERTAINTY...THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS DANNY MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE STORM SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DUE TO INCREASING FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE GREAT LAKES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BECAUSE\r\nOF THE CENTER REFORMATION AND THE GOOD TRACK MODEL AGREEMENT.\r\nHOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WOULD BRING DANNY CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.  \r\n \r\nWHILE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LIGHT NEAR DANNY FOR THE TIME BEING...\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR SO. DESPITE THIS\r\nPATTERN CHANGE...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY MODELS MAKE DANNY A\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING DESPITE THE SHEAR. SOME OF THIS INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH COULD BE DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES AS THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE SHOWING A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD ARGUE MORE FOR A\r\nSTRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST STILL SHOWS THIS SYSTEM TO BE A HURRICANE IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS BUT GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAKES DANNY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 27.4N  72.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 28.4N  73.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 30.0N  74.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 32.3N  74.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 35.7N  72.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 44.0N  66.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 50.0N  55.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 53.0N  40.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2009\r\n \r\nDANNY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOOKS BETTER DEFINED THAN IT DID YESTERDAY...\r\nAND THE CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  THAT BEING SAID...THE\r\nCENTER IS STILL EXPOSED...THE CONVECTION HAS MORE OF A LINEAR\r\nCHARACTER THAN THE CURVED BANDS CHARACTERISTIC OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT PENDING THE NEXT\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AT 18Z...ALTHOUGH RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS IS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE\r\nACTUAL MOTION OF DANNY OR A SHORT-TERM TREND.  SO...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/11.  DESPITE THE PROBLEMATIC INITIAL\r\nMOTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT\r\nDANNY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HR IN ADVANCE OF A\r\nCOMPLEX DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES...PASSING NEAR OR OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nNAM...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO PASS NEAR CAPE\r\nHATTERAS AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF ARE\r\nON THE RIGHT SIDE...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO STAY OFFSHORE UNTIL\r\nIT REACHES NOVA SCOTIA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR BASED ON THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT CURRENTLY SHOW DANNY\r\nMAKING LANDFALL IN THE UNITED STATES...ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE U. S.\r\nEASTERN SEABOARD.\r\n \r\nDANNY IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO BE\r\nREPLACED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-30 HR...\r\nAND IF THIS VERIFIES IT WILL GIVE DANNY ITS BEST CHANCE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY\r\nTO STRENGTHEN DURING THE 24-48 HR PERIOD...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n65 KT.  THE GUIDANCE AGREES THAT DANNY SHOULD START LOSING TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AND INTENSITY AFTER 48 HR AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN\r\nA STRONG BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.  OVERALL...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WITH THE PEAK\r\nINTENSITY BELOW THAT OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 27.5N  73.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 28.7N  73.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 30.3N  74.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 33.2N  74.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 36.9N  72.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 45.0N  64.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 50.0N  53.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 52.5N  37.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANNY HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...\r\nWITH STRONGER WINDS IN THE PREVIOUSLY WEAK SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. \r\nASIDE FROM THAT...THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED.  THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION IS IN A LINE 130-170 N MI EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE 100 N MI OR MORE FROM THE\r\nCENTER OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA...AS WELL\r\nAS DATA FROM THE QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETERS...SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40-45 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD SINCE SUNRISE...WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 270/2.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT DANNY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HR IN ADVANCE OF A COMPLEX DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING\r\nINTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES...PASSING NEAR OR OVER\r\nCAPE HATTERAS...SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES ON ITS WAY INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  WITH THE MORE\r\nWESTERLY INITIAL POSITION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED\r\nSOMEWHAT WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD AS WELL.  WHILE THE TRACK IS STILL DOWN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...\r\nAND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL TO THE LEFT OF THE NEW TRACK.  SOME\r\nADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LEFT...TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE U. S....MAY BE REQUIRED IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.\r\n \r\nDANNY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...BOTH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SSM/IS TOTAL\r\nPRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR DANNY\r\nIS DRY.  THESE FACTORS...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT LACK OF\r\nORGANIZATION...SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOW AT BEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DANNY\r\nTO STRENGTHEN FROM 24-36 HR AS IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE UNDER AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  AFTER THAT...IT WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DANNY TO NOT REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 48 HR.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF STILL FORECAST DANNY TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BY 36 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 27.5N  73.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 28.5N  74.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.7N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 34.4N  74.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 38.8N  71.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 46.5N  61.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 50.0N  49.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 51.0N  32.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2009\r\n \r\nDANNY REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED IN ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION.\r\nLITTLE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.\r\nTHERE ARE A FEW CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND\r\nNORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS CONVECTION SHOWS\r\nLITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE\r\nNOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF\r\nDANNY HAS LITTLE VERTICAL DEPTH.  A NOAA P-3 HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT...CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN DANNY THIS EVENING...\r\nINDICATES THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BE DISPLACED WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  PEAK WINDS REPORTED BY THE PLANE WERE\r\n42 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  DANNY HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO ITS\r\nWEST.  THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE STORM TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE\r\nANTICYCLONIC...WITH SOME LESSENING OF THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER BY 48 HOURS THE SHEAR OVER DANNY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE 40 KT OR MORE SO ANY INTENSIFICATION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CEASE BY THAT TIME.  IN\r\nFACT...BY 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE\r\nSPACE ANALYSES IMPLY THAT DANNY MAY HAVE ALREADY BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER MEANDERED ABOUT DURING THE DAY...BUT LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT A NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCENTER IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO DISCERN ON RECENT INFRARED IMAGES.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 330/7.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  DANNY SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nSHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THEREAFTER\r\nA DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CARRY\r\nDANNY OR ITS POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES WELL\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO KEEP THE AREA OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE...NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE\r\nBEING ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER NEW\r\nWATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY\r\nIF THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFTS TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 28.4N  73.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 29.7N  74.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 32.5N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 40.5N  69.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 47.5N  59.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 50.5N  46.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 51.0N  31.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN IN THE AREA OF DANNY\r\nSINCE AROUND 05 UTC AND FOUND THAT DANNY IS BARELY A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED ONLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS.\r\nAFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF THE CENTER BEING COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY\r\nDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE STRONG SHEAR NEARBY MOST LIKELY WILL\r\nREMOVE THE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN AT ANY TIME. SINCE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE BUILDING A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD. THEREAFTER...WITH A LARGE TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING DANNY...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BEGIN THE TRANSITION\r\nTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 8 KT. THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL FORCE DANNY TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED AFTER 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS KEEP THE CENTER OF DANNY AWAY FROM THE\r\nUNITED STATES EAST COAST...AND SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS \r\nARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE...IT IS NOT\r\nNECESSARY TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE REGION\r\nCURRENTLY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nREMAINS IN EFFECT IN CASE THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON\r\nTHE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OR THE\r\nFORECAST UNEXPECTEDLY SHIFTS TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 29.5N  74.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 31.3N  74.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 34.2N  74.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 42.5N  67.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 47.5N  59.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 52.0N  47.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 54.0N  26.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DANNY REMAINS EXPOSED THIS MORNING...AND OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. NOAA BUOY 41047 WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nREPORTED A 1-MINUTE PEAK SUSTAINED WIND OF 31 KT AT 1100 UTC. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...ASSUMING THAT HIGHER WINDS\r\nSTILL EXIST WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING DANNY LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO\r\nPROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON ITS INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/9...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nSHORT TERM WESTWARD MOTION AND THE LONGER TERM NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION OBSERVED OVERNIGHT. THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE WEST\r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND ACTUALLY LIES WEST OF ALL THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AT 12 HOURS...AS THESE MODELS IMMEDIATELY TURN\r\nDANNY NORTHWARD. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 36 HOURS...THIS\r\nPOSITION IS JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MASSACHUSETTS...WITH THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SIGNIFICANTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS...AND MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE CLUSTERED TO THE RIGHT.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...DANNY SHOULD BE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nINTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS\r\nTHAT COULD OCCUR. THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL REPRESENTS AN EVEN MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK THAT COULD OCCUR IF DANNY LOSES ALL OF ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER COULD RE-FORM\r\nUNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION FARTHER EAST. EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS\r\nWOULD LIKELY REDUCE THE THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO OVER 30 KT BY 24\r\nHOURS AS DANNY INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW THAT\r\nDANNY WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINNING BY 48\r\nHOURS...AND THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 72\r\nHOURS. THIS EVOLUTION IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH\r\nSHOWS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD AS DANNY MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nWILL NOT BE ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AT THIS\r\nTIME...DUE TO THE CURRENT AND EXPECTED LIMITED EXTENT OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CASE THE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER\r\nDEFINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY OR IF THE FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO SHIFT WESTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 30.1N  75.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 32.5N  75.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 36.2N  74.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 40.7N  70.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 44.6N  65.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 49.6N  52.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 52.5N  38.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 54.5N  21.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009\r\n \r\nAFTER STALLING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF DANNY IS\r\nFINALLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. DATA FROM AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT DANNY IS\r\nSTILL A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A 33-KT OBSERVATION FROM\r\nTHE SFMR IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AS THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDIVERGENCE COULD SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS...DANNY WILL BE MOVING INTO A VERY\r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWING WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 35 KT BY THAT TIME. BY 36\r\nHOURS...DANNY WILL BE OVER SSTS OF NEAR 20C...AND INTERACTING WITH\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  MOST OF\r\nTHE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS AND PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW THAT DANNY\r\nWILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF DANNY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nTHE GUIDANCE WAS INITIALIZED WITH A LONG TERM MOTION OF 315/08...\r\nAND REMAINS IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RAPID ACCELERATION OF DANNY\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. IN FACT...THE MODEL SPREAD IS\r\nSMALLER NOW THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE SLOW\r\nINITIAL MOTION. FROM 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT DANNY IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND\r\nAPPROACH NOVA SCOTIA IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE ONLY 34-KT WINDS ARE LOCATED\r\nIN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE LACK OF WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nDANNY LESSEN THE THREAT FOR TROPICAL STORM WIND REACHING THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA OUTER BANKS. HOWEVER...THE WATCH IS LEFT IN PLACE IN CASE\r\nTHE WIND FIELD BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF DANNY.\r\nAS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY\r\nIMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE\r\nHANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS\r\nOFFICES IN THAT REGION.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 30.4N  75.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 32.7N  75.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 37.3N  73.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 41.9N  68.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 46.5N  61.4W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 50.5N  49.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 53.0N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 55.0N  22.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2009\r\n\r\nDANNY REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM.  THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS AND LARGEST AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY\r\nFORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  JUST-RECEIVED QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWS ONE\r\nRELIABLE-LOOKING 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DANNY IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN FLOW BETWEEN\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 26N71W AND THE POWERFUL UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nDANNY HAS CONTINUED ITS ERRATIC MOTION THIS EVENING.  JUST\r\nBEFORE SUNSET...THE EXPOSED CENTER APPEARED TO BE MOVING NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  SINCE THEN...THE CENTER HAS\r\nDISAPPEARED UNDER CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT IT SEEMS TO BE MOVING MORE\r\nNORTHWARD AT A FASTER PACE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN\r\n020/10.  OTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO IS\r\nUNCHANGED.  DANNY SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES...MOVING\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nBASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG THE LEFT\r\nEDGE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 48 HR. \r\nTHE TRACK CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS IN\r\nABOUT 12 HR...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD IN 24-30 HR...AND NEAR OR OVER\r\nNOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND IN 36-48 HR.\r\n\r\nDANNY IS ABOUT OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nTHE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR A LITTLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION WHILE DANNY IS STILL TROPICAL...LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THEN SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD ARRIVE IN\r\nDANNY AROUND 06Z TO BETTER DETERMINE THE POSITION AND INTENSITY.\r\nAS DANNY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...ITS EXPANDING WIND FIELD MAY\r\nIMPACT THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  THESE POTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE\r\nHANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS\r\nOFFICES IN THAT REGION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 31.4N  74.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 34.7N  73.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 39.5N  70.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 44.0N  64.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 47.3N  58.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 51.5N  45.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 53.5N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 56.0N  14.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Danny","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052009\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT DANNY IS RAPIDLY BECOMING\r\nABSORBED BY A FRONTAL LOW WHICH IS DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CAROLINA.\r\nIN FACT...THE PLANE TRAVERSED THE POSSIBLE LOCATION OF DANNY A\r\nCOUPLE TIMES AND DID NOT FIND ANY SIGNIFICANT CYCLONIC WIND\r\nSHIFT NOR DID IT MEASURE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE.\r\nTHEREFORE...ADVISORIES ON DANNY HAVE BEEN TERMINATED AND THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nWILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST AND ITS\r\nPOTENTIAL IMPACTS WILL BE HANDLED WITH GALE WARNINGS AND OTHER\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS OFFICES IN THAT REGION. ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 34.3N  74.6W    30 KT...BECOMING ABSORBED\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 38.0N  73.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 41.2N  69.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 46.2N  62.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 49.5N  56.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 54.5N  43.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 56.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 57.0N  10.1W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING\r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HAS FOUND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1007 MB AND A CLOSED...ALBEIT...BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT WITH SFMR DATA OF\r\nABOUT 45 KT.  THUS...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA HAS FORMED WITH AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIKA IS EXPERIENCING MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM SEEMS POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE SSTS ARE WARM AND SHEAR\r\nREMAINS MODERATE.  HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE SHEAR NEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FROM A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nERIKA WEAKENING AFTER TWO DAYS DUE TO THE SHEAR.  THE TWO BIG\r\nOUTLIERS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ARE THE GFDL/HWRF...WHICH FORM AN\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR ERIKA AND MAKE IT A HURRICANE. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN\r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR TAKES OVER. THE NHC FORECAST WILL\r\nBE CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IT IS OF NOTE THAT ALMOST ALL OF\r\nTHE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW ERIKA EVENTUALLY BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE...DESPITE THE SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8...THOUGH THE CENTER APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE DONE SOME REFORMATION SINCE YESTERDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nOVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE ERIKA TO MOVE ALONG\r\nTHAT GENERAL COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE STORM COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT NEARS THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THIS FORECAST IS RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN AS THE TRACK PROBABLY HAS A STRONG DEPENDENCE ON THE\r\nFUTURE INTENSITY OF ERIKA.  A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY MOVE MORE\r\nTO THE WEST...SIMILAR TO THE UKMET OR GFS MODELS.  HOWEVER...A\r\nSTRONGER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY FEEL THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND\r\nMOVE MORE TO THE RIGHT...LIKE THE HWRF/GFDL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST\r\nIN THE LONGER-TERM.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN THAT AREA. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 17.2N  57.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.7N  58.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.4N  60.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N  62.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 19.8N  63.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N  66.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 23.0N  69.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 25.0N  72.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN TRAVERSING ERIKA AND\r\nFOUND THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AND THE\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM A DROP WAS 1004 MB. THIS VALUE COULD\r\nBE A LITTLE BIT LOWER SINCE THE DROP MEASURED 19 KNOTS AT THE\r\nSURFACE. THE SFMR AND THE PLANE MEASURED 55 AND 50 KNOTS...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE\r\nHIGH-CLOUD MOTION THAT THE SHEAR HAS LESSENED A LITTLE BIT. ERIKA\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS OVER\r\nERIKA...A PATTERN THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. IN\r\nFACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THAT PERIOD\r\nAS OPPOSED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF THAT BOTH MAKE ERIKA A STRONG\r\nHURRICANE.  \r\n\r\nERIKA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT\r\nTHIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF THE CYCLONE BEING IN ITS FORMATIVE\r\nSTAGE. ERIKA IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nAZORES-BERMUDA HIGH AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE THE\r\nAZORES-BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD A LITTLE\r\nBIT...ERIKA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK.\r\nSINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT VERY STRONG....ERIKA SHOULD\r\nMOVE SLOWLY. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE CONFIDENCE\r\nIN THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. BOTH THE UK AND THE GFS TAKE A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK WHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nCOMPONENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nWHICH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THESE TWO MODEL OPTIONS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 17.5N  57.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 18.0N  58.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N  60.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N  61.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 19.5N  63.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.0N  66.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 22.6N  68.4W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 24.5N  71.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SEARCHING\r\nFOR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME QUITE DISORGANIZED...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED\r\nTRACK.  HOWEVER THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE\r\nMULTIPLE CENTERS...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND\r\nPROBABLY REPRESENTS A MEAN CENTER...OR THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM.  THE INITIAL MOTION...270/4...IS OF\r\nCOURSE ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED TO RESUME.  ERIKA SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE...E.G. THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF...AND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR A\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM...E.G. THE GFS.  THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERIKA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...\r\nWHICH IS NOT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN\r\nDISRUPTING THE CYCLONE BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FARTHER TO THE WEST IS\r\nLIKELY TO IMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON ERIKA...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...BUT BELOW THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT SOME OF THESE NUMERICAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF AND GFDL...\r\nHAVE SHOWN A HIGH BIAS FOR A COUPLE OF THIS YEAR'S ATLANTIC\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nHAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 17.0N  59.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 17.3N  60.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 17.8N  61.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.4N  62.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 19.0N  64.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 20.3N  66.9W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 22.0N  69.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 24.0N  72.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nDATA SHOW THAT ERIKA IS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM.  THERE ARE\r\nMULTIPLE SWIRLS APPARENT ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY ROTATING IN THE\r\nLARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE WITH A MEAN CENTER TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  THE SFMR EARLIER REPORTED WINDS OF ABOUT 35\r\nKT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...WITH CIMSS\r\nDIAGNOSING ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. AT FIRST GLANCE...THE SHEAR DOES\r\nNOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM WITH SOUTH OR\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY WINDS REPORTED AT 200 MB OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS. HOWEVER...UPPER-AIR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND ST. MAARTEN\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS PRIMARILY COMING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS\r\nBETWEEN 300 MB-250 MB...AND THIS IS APPARENTLY UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOUTFLOW LAYERS AT 200 MB AND ABOVE.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO\r\nNOT SHOW MUCH RELAXATION OF THIS SHEAR...AND ACTUALLY SHOW IT\r\nINCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  DESPITE ALL THIS\r\nSHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.  THIS REINTENSIFICATION \r\nDOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE POSSIBLE SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF ERIKA DISSIPATED.\r\n\r\nA 24-HOUR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/9. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nPREDICTED TO RESUME AS THE STORM MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS...AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nCONSENSUS DUE TO THE ANTICIPATION OF ERIKA REMAINING WEAK. IT\r\nSHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT...OVERALL...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE\r\nTRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE U.S. AND BRITISH\r\nVIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 16.5N  60.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 16.9N  61.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 17.4N  62.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.0N  64.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.6N  65.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N  68.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  71.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 23.5N  73.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ERIKA IS ELONGATED\r\nFROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...IN AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM THE LESSER ANTILLES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT.  THE SWIRL SOUTHWEST OF GUADELOUPE APPEARS TO BE\r\nPART OF THIS ELONGATED CIRCULATION...BUT IS NOT THE MEAN CENTER OF\r\nTHE OVERALL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.  AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT\r\nERIKA IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 44\r\nKT AND SFMR DATA WERE BETWEEN 35-40 KT.  HOWEVER THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS WERE NEAR A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nERIKA HAS A DIFFICULT ROAD AHEAD WITH INCREASING SHEAR LIKELY AS THE\r\nSTORM NEARS THE GREATER ANTILLES.  WHILE SOME INTENSIFICATION CAN\r\nNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH 20-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS\r\nAT 250 MB OVER ERIKA.  THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...OR\r\nINCREASE...AS THE STORM MOVES NEAR HISPANIOLA.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS RESTRENGTHENING OF ERIKA...THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM THIS MORNING.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS DISSIPATION OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 5 DAYS.  ONE ALTERNATIVE SOLUTION IS THAT\r\nINTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA CAUSES AN EVEN FASTER DEMISE OF ERIKA.\r\n \r\nTHE LONG-TERM MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM IS ABOUT 275/9.  DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST PRIMARILY BY A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE\r\nTHIS MORNING...PERHAPS DUE TO THE WEAKER INITIAL STATE OF ERIKA.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS WELL...REMAINING WEST OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 16.4N  61.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 16.8N  62.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.4N  64.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 18.0N  66.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 18.7N  67.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.0N  70.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.5N  73.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2009\r\n \r\nERIKA IS BARELY A TROPICAL STORM. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A\r\nFEW HOURS AGO AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES INDICATE\r\nTHAT ERIKA IS VERY DISORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A BROAD ELONGATED\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN\r\nSQUALLS...LIMITED TO A FEW SPOTS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A NEW\r\nCENTER COULD REFORM AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE. INFRARED\r\nPICTURES SUGGEST THAT THERE IS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...BUT THERE IS ALSO SHEAR CAUSED BY WINDS BELOW THE\r\nCIRRUS CANOPY BECAUSE THE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT ERIKA\r\nIS ON ITS WAY TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OR REFORM\r\nSOMEWHERE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A\r\nLITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THAT IS THE\r\nREASON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF VERY\r\nHOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND THE LAND MASS OF HISPANIOLA\r\nALONG THE PATH OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE HWRF\r\nIS THE ONLY MODEL THAT FORECAST ERIKA TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE\r\nAND THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.           \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nWESTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS LIMITED SINCE VARIOUS MODELS WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE WITH TIME AND THE TRACKERS NO LONGER FOLLOW THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE AVAILABLE CONSENSUS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT ERIKA OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nAND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 16.1N  62.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 16.4N  63.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 17.0N  65.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N  67.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 18.5N  68.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  71.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIXED A FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER...THERE\r\nARE A FAIR NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA REGION...AND THESE SHOW THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nIS AT BEST POORLY-DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A\r\nTROUGH ORIENTED FROM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THERE\r\nWERE A FEW 34 TO 37-KT SFMR SURFACE WIND READINGS SOME 40-75 N MI\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY\r\nIS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.  EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY NO LONGER BE A\r\nDEFINITE SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...WE WILL MAINTAIN\r\nADVISORIES ON THE SYSTEM PENDING ADDITIONAL DATA FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE IMAGERY.  RADIOSONDE DATA FROM\r\nTHE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AREA SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS BEEN\r\nEXPERIENCING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO FLOW AT ABOUT THE 250 MB\r\nLEVEL...WHICH IS LIKELY JUST BELOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTFLOW\r\nLAYER.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nERIKA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO STRENGTHENING\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS.  IN SPITE OF THE STRONG SHEAR...THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THAT ERIKA WILL INTENSIFY\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE ARE MUCH LESS\r\nAGGRESSIVE...PARTICULARLY THE LATTER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nANTICIPATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LOCATION...OR EXISTENCE...OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/6 IS MORE OF AN\r\nEDUCATED GUESS.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF ERIKA. \r\nAS THE MODELS BUILD THIS RIDGE SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE NEARS\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE PRIMARILY DUE TO A\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nEVEN IF ERIKA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...IT COULD MAINTAIN\r\nVIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH WOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 16.5N  62.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.1N  64.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.9N  65.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 18.7N  67.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 19.5N  68.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 21.0N  70.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N  73.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT\r\nERIKA HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A LITTLE...TO 1010 MB. THERE WERE A\r\nFEW UN-FLAGGED SFMR READINGS OF WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE IN\r\nTHE CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE 1200 UTC RADIOSONDE DATA STILL SHOW\r\nWESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE 250 MB LEVEL WEST OF\r\nERIKA...AND THE SAN JUAN RAOB SHOWS A RELATIVELY DRY MID- AND\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THIS\r\nEVIDENCE...PLUS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...SUGGESTS THAT\r\nERIKA SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. DESPITE THIS...\r\nALMOST ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS ERIKA AS AT LEAST A\r\nTROPICAL STORM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HOLDING ERIKA AS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM THROUGH 12 HOURS AND SLOWLY WEAKENING THE CYCLONE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 3.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INCLUDING DATA FROM NOAA\r\nBUOY 42060...SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF ERIKA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN\r\nTHE ISLAND OF ST. KITTS AND THE BUOY. HOWEVER...THESE DATA ALSO\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS STILL NOT TERRIBLY WELL DEFINED. ERIKA\r\nIS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/07. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF ERIKA...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...OR\r\nNORTHWARD...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT SHIFT\r\nIN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING\r\nIN ISOLATED AREAS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS TO REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nFOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nEVEN IF ERIKA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...IT COULD MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION WHICH\r\nWOULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS ALONG ITS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 16.9N  63.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 17.5N  64.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 18.4N  66.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 19.2N  67.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N  68.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  71.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 23.0N  73.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erika","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ERIKA IS EXPOSED AS A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL MOVING OUT AHEAD\r\nOF THE WANING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB...BUT WERE UNABLE TO FIND ANY WINDS TO\r\nSUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AS A RESULT...ERIKA IS DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND THE MAJORITY OF ALL THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE. SINCE ERIKA SHOULD MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE\r\nSHALLOW BAM MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.\r\nTHIS FORECAST TURNS ERIKA TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...TAKING THE\r\nCYCLONE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND OVER HISPANIOLA\r\n...WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT ERIKA WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME\r\nSUSTAINING ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE. ERIKA\r\nIS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 12 HOURS...AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS....ALTHOUGH THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTION EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER\r\nTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF ERIKA COULD BECOME POORLY DEFINED AND THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD DEVOLVE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME. EVEN IF ERIKA LOSES\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...ITS REMNANTS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nOVER THE GREATER ANTILLES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 16.7N  65.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.2N  66.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.1N  68.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.9N  70.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 19.5N  72.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erika","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062009\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2009\r\n \r\nERIKA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY\r\nOBSERVED ON SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO RADAR. IN ADDITION...RAOB FROM THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES SHOW A STRONG MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nERIKA THAT HAS BEEN LEFT BEHIND OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\nBY TRACING THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ON SATELLITE...ONE CAN CLEARLY SEE\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF EVEN STRONGER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM\r\nDECOUPLED AND WILL LIKELY REMOVE ALL THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THAT\r\nCOULD REDEVELOP.  BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS\r\nDEFINED...CONVECTION IS NOT ORGANIZED...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE\r\nRISING AND THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED...ERIKA IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nREMNANT LOW...AND COULD DEGENERATE EVEN FURTHER INTO A TROUGH OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERIKA\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE REMANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS\r\nAND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA COULD STILL PRODUCE\r\nHEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 16.8N  65.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 17.0N  66.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N  67.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N  68.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED\r\nSOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO\r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SEVENTH OF THE 2009\r\nATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE EXACT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. EARLIER TODAY THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAPPEARED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER NOW THE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\n...BUT DISPLACED EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. DESPITE A LARGE SPREAD IN THE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...BOTH CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.0...YIELDING AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW EAST-TO-WEST\r\nORIENTED RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCUTS-OFF NEAR 27N40W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nREASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY\r\nACCOUNTS FOR INCREASING SHEAR IN THE LONGER RANGES MORE ACCURATELY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE HWRF AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...\r\nWHICH BOTH BRING THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TONIGHT. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE\r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING LOCALLY\r\nHEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 12.5N  24.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 12.6N  26.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 13.0N  28.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 13.9N  30.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 15.1N  32.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.6N  33.9W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N  34.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 21.0N  34.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009\r\n \r\nA RECENTLY RECEIVED TRMM PASS FROM 2324 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. RECENT INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED\r\nBAND BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOCATION OF THE SUSPECTED CENTER.\r\nBASED ON THIS EVIDENCE...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FRED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL CURRENTLY ANALYZES EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KNOTS OVER\r\nFRED. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER WARM WATER...THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO. BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...FRED IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THE\r\nSHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nFOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO ICON FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSER TO LGEM...SINCE THAT MODEL TYPICALLY HAS A GOOD\r\nHANDLE ON THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/13...BUT THIS IS UNCERTAIN\r\nGIVEN THE RECENT RELOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AXIS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...FRED IS EXPECTED\r\nTO RECURVE INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. AT THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AS THE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH THAT CAUSES THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING WEAK\r\nRIDGING TO BUILD IN NORTH OF FRED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE\r\nMORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION OF THE CENTER. BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 11.8N  26.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 12.0N  28.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 12.6N  30.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 13.6N  31.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 14.8N  32.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N  34.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N  34.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 21.0N  34.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n\r\nFRED IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGES. \r\nTHE STORM IS EXHIBITING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND FEATURE WRAPPING\r\nAROUND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  BASED ON THE\r\nBANDING...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE AT LEAST 3.0.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB\r\nWASHINGTON...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ALSO SET AT 45 KT. \r\nCIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nOF THE SYSTEM.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...SO ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY.      \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHORT-TERM\r\nENVIRONMENT...FRED CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY\r\n3.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nFRED.  THAT...ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER OCEAN...WILL PROBABLY\r\nINDUCE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR DAYS 4 AND 5 DOES NOT\r\nWEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUITE AS FAST AS INDICATED BY SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT AROUND\r\n275/13.  THE NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FRED IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME ERODED OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 28N AND 40W.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nFRED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW WEAK RIDGING DEVLOPING AGAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS...SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS TURN THE\r\nSYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 WITH A VERY SLOW FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD AND HINTS AT A SLIGHT TURN TO THE LEFT AT 96-120\r\nHOURS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE FRED MUCH FARTHER NORTH IN 5\r\nDAYS...BUT ARE BEING TREATED AS OUTLIERS FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 11.8N  27.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 12.1N  29.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 13.0N  30.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 13.9N  32.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 15.1N  33.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N  34.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N  34.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 20.5N  34.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING.  IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SHOW THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF INNER CORE FEATURES AND THE\r\nFIRST SIGNS OF AN EYE.  AN 0808 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT...AND 1200 UTC SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 55 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB/SAB.  THE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN WARM WATERS\r\nAND LIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.  THEREAFTER...SSTS DECREASE\r\nAND AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 40W COULD START TO INDUCE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nOF FRED AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WHILE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS\r\nLESS ROBUST BUT STILL MAKES FRED A HURRICANE.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THAT GUIDANCE AND IS HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE STRONG WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AND THE DAY 3-5 FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\nABOUT 275/12.  FOR THE TIME BEING...FRED IS BEING STEERED PRIMARILY\r\nBY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH TIME AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\n40W MOVES EASTWARD.  THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NORTHWEST...THEN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nBY DAY THREE.  STEERING CURRENTS BECOME LIGHT AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...WITH SOME HINTS OF A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE NORTH CAUSING A\r\nSLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.  THE CANADIAN AND THE UKMET ARE THE\r\nONLY TWO MODELS THAT HAVE A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT EVOLUTION TO THE\r\nPATTERN...SHOWING FRED MISSING THE FIRST TROUGH WHICH CAUSES A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION...BUT EVEN THOSE MODELS HAVE THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 11.9N  28.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 12.4N  30.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 13.3N  32.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 14.4N  33.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 15.7N  34.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N  34.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N  34.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  35.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION METEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW THAT FRED REMAINS A\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH PROMINENT BANDING AND\r\nEXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS IS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS\r\nFORMED NEAR THE CENTER.  A 1514Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ALSO SHOWS\r\nTHE BEGINNING STAGES OF AN EYEWALL.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES SUGGESTS SOME STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME\r\nCONFLICTING SIGNALS PRESENT. THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E PASS SHOWED\r\nA CLOSED RING PATTERN ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL...WHICH HAS BEEN A\r\nHARBINGER OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE.  IN COMBINATION WITH\r\nWARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR...IT IS TEMPTING TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASING BY TOMORROW...WHICH COULD LIMIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. \r\nTHERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM SHOWING ONLY A LITTLE MORE\r\nINTENSIFICATION WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL STILL HAVE FRED REACHING\r\nCATEGORY 2 STATUS.  THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE CLOSER TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 24-36 HRS\r\nBEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES.  THEREAFTER...COOLER WATERS...STRONGER\r\nSHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN FRED...AND IT WOULD\r\nNOT BE SURPRISING IF FRED WAS ONLY A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/12.  A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC IS CURRENTLY THE PRIMARY FEATURE STEERING FRED.  HOWEVER A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING\r\nTHE TRACK OF THE STORM TO GRADUALLY BEND FROM WEST-NORTHWEST...\r\nNORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH BY DAY THREE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THAN THIS MORNING.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY SUGGESTING MORE OF A MOTION TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST THAN EARLIER...PERHAPS DUE TO THEIR DEPICTION OF A\r\nSTRONGER CYCLONE INTERACTING MORE WITH THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LONGER-RANGE...\r\nBUT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 12.1N  29.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 12.8N  31.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 13.9N  32.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 15.2N  33.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.4N  34.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 18.0N  34.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N  33.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 22.0N  34.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST FEW INFRARED IMAGES FROM METEOSAT-9 INDICATE THAT FRED\r\nHAS DEVELOPED AN EYE...FOLLOWING THE TREND OBSERVED IN 1934 UTC\r\nWINDSAT DATA AND 2112 UTC SSM/IS DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING. \r\nTHE EYE IS SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nTO -80 C...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS EXPANDING AND BECOMING\r\nMORE AXISYMMETRIC.  TWO RECENT AMSU OVERPASSES YIELDED INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 68 KT AND 70 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...AND FRED IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFRED HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH\r\nAN ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 295/10.  THE NARROW RIDGE THAT HAS\r\nBEEN NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS NOW BREAKING DOWN DUE TO TWO\r\nSHORTWAVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS LOCATED NEAR 27N 37W AND NEAR\r\nTHE CANARY ISLANDS.  AS A RESULT...FRED WILL CONTINUE TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE\r\nMODEL ENVELOPE REMAINS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DID NOT HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY\r\nMUCH.  INTERESTINGLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE BOTH CONSISTENTLY\r\nBEEN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...AND THEY HAVE DONE\r\nA BETTER JOB THAN THE OTHER MODELS BY NOT PULLING FRED NORTHWARD TOO\r\nSOON.  THIS COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT FRED MIGHT NOT TURN AS\r\nSHARPLY TO THE NORTH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND\r\nFUTURE FORECASTS MAY REQUIRE SOME SHIFTING TO THE WEST.\r\n \r\nFRED APPEARS TO HAVE A CLEAR PATH FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY WARM SSTS AND LOW\r\nSHEAR.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS FAST STRENGTHENING...\r\nAND THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS ONLY 21 PERCENT AT THE\r\nMOMENT.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO PEAK FRED\r\nAT 80 KT IN 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING AT\r\n36 HOURS ONCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE.  SSTS ONLY\r\nDECREASE GRADUALLY NORTH OF FRED...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR\r\nAND A DRIER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL PLAY THE BIGGEST ROLE IN\r\nMODULATING THE INTENSITY BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 12.6N  30.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 13.3N  31.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 14.5N  33.1W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 15.7N  34.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.8N  34.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 18.3N  34.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 20.0N  33.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 23.0N  34.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS UNDERGONE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE EYE IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN CLOUD TOPS\r\nOF -55 DEG C OR COLDER...AND THE DATA T-NUMBER IS AT LEAST 5.0. \r\nTHIS CORRESPONDS TO A CONSERVATIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 90\r\nKT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  FRED IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TODAY.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS\r\nOR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING\r\nINTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...FRED WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SHOULD BRING ABOUT\r\nWEAKENING...AND OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND\r\nCOMMENCING AFTER 24 HOURS.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SEEM TO BE LESS\r\nSENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS\r\nTHE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN BENDING GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT\r\n300/11.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN\r\nWEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES 35W NORTH OF\r\n20N.  DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FRED IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nINTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE TROUGH AND TO DECELERATE AS THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW BECOMES VERY WEAK.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF FRED AND THIS COULD EVENTUALLY BLOCK THE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH\r\nTHAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP FRED AS\r\nA DEEP CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 13.2N  31.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 14.1N  32.7W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 15.4N  33.9W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.5N  34.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 17.3N  34.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 18.4N  34.2W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 20.6N  34.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N  34.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2009\r\n \r\nFRED HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING AND IS NOW A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nDISTINCT ON BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED CHANNELS AND REMAINS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 102 KT...WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS NEAR\r\n115 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING FRED\r\nTHE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS CAUSE FRED TO WEAKEN TOMORROW.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS COOLER\r\nAND INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE\r\nWEAKENING EFFECTS OF THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR.  THE LATEST NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.   THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO BE LESS\r\nSENSITIVE TO INCREASED SHEAR...DO NOT WEAKEN FRED NEARLY AS MUCH AS\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND GRADUALLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW ABOUT\r\n305/11.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING AS MOST\r\nGUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ALL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nDECELERATES FRED AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING\r\nCURRENTS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS REBUILD THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FRED BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS INITIALLY...THEN ENDS UP \r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE ANTICIPATION THAT A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD\r\nTAKE A MORE WESTWARD PATH.  THE TWO BIGGEST OUTLIERS TO THIS\r\nFORECAST ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH TAKE FRED FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nMOST OF THE OTHER MODELS...PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY KEEP IT AS A DEEP\r\nCYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.\r\n\r\nIT IS QUITE UNUSUAL TO HAVE SUCH A POWERFUL SYSTEM SO FAR EAST IN\r\nTHE BASIN AND FRED IS ONLY THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE NOTED EAST OF\r\n35W IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO\r\nFAR SOUTH AND EAST IN OUR DATA RECORD.  THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM...\r\nHOWEVER...WOULD HAVE BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO ACCURATELY OBSERVE\r\nBEFORE SATELLITE PICTURES BEGAN IN THE 1960S.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 13.9N  32.4W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 14.9N  33.5W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 16.2N  34.3W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.2N  34.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N  34.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 18.7N  34.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  34.2W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 23.5N  36.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF FRED HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT THIS AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS\r\nCLOUDS HAVE OBSCURED THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...CONVECTION IN THE\r\nEYEWALL REMAINS STRONG WITH AN OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nBEFITTING A MAJOR HURRICANE.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 100 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT BUT\r\nA MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW AS FRED\r\nENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ONLY GET MORE HOSTILE\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES DRY MID-LEVEL AIR\r\nNEAR FRED.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE HWRF/GFDL NOW SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS\r\nBY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING IF FRED DISSIPATED BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/11.  FRED CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY GAIN\r\nLATITUDE AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ERODES TO ITS NORTH. WHILE THERE IS\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nDECELERATING IN A DAY OR SO...THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS\r\nTHEREAFTER.  AT ONE EXTREME...THE UKMET HAS FRED MISSING A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...CAUSING THE CYCLONE\r\nTO STALL SOUTH OF 17N AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD UNDER A NEW\r\nRIDGE.  A DIFFERENT SOLUTION IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS\r\nMODELS...WHICH SHOW FRED BEING STEERED QUICKLY NORTHWARD BY THAT\r\nTROUGH AND APPROACHING 30N BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.  AT THIS\r\nPOINT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THE IDEA THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG-RANGE...LEADING TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK\r\nAT THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND REMAINS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAY\r\n5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 14.8N  33.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 15.8N  34.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N  34.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 17.8N  34.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 18.3N  34.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N  33.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  34.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 23.5N  37.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2009\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF FRED COMPLETELY DISAPPEARED FROM INFRARED IMAGERY AROUND\r\n2300 UTC...AND IT APPEARS THAT SOME SHEAR AND DRY AIR IS ERODING\r\nTHE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  ANALYSES\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS INDICATES THAT THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF ABOUT 20\r\nKT OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE\r\nHURRICANE.  IN FACT...A 2308 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE DECOUPLING TO THE SOUTH OF THE REMNANT\r\nMID-LEVEL EYEWALL.  FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0 AND\r\n4.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT IS DOWN TO 5.0. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 90 KT ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR...THE DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE...GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY ABOUT\r\nDAY 3...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nABOVE 30 KT AND THE SSTS WILL BE MARGINALLY WARM...SO QUICKER\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AT THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS\r\nSINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF APPEAR UNREALISTICALLY STRONG DURING THE\r\nHIGH SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH THE NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS FRED AS A\r\nDEPRESSION AT DAY 5...IT IS ENTIRELY FEASIBLE THAT IT COULD BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY THEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/9 MAY BE A LITTLE FAST IF THE\r\nLOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE IN FACT BECOMING DECOUPLED. \r\nFRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS\r\nAS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE\r\nVERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  BY 48 HOURS...\r\nFRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nTROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. \r\nFRED SHOULD THEN BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST THEN WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DISCOUNTS THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS...WHICH ALL MAINTAIN FRED AS A DEEP SYSTEM\r\nAND ARE NORTHERN OUTLIERS FROM THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 15.3N  33.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 16.2N  34.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 17.1N  34.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 17.8N  34.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 18.4N  34.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.5N  33.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 22.0N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 23.5N  38.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009\r\n \r\nFRED IS MAINTAINING PLENTY OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH\r\nOCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  AN\r\nAMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0411Z SHOWED THAT THE HURRICANE STILL HAD\r\nAN INTACT INNER CORE...AND WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 90 KT.  THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE\r\nSIGNIFICANT BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HERALDING THE\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS SSTS COOL ALONG THE FORECAST PATH AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES. IN A DAY OR SO...FRED IS ALSO\r\nEXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE GFDL/HWRF STILL APPEAR TO\r\nUNREALISTICALLY KEEP FRED TOO INTENSE IN THE FACE OF RATHER STRONG\r\nSHEAR...THOUGH THEIR WIND SPEED FORECASTS ARE REDUCED FROM SIX\r\nHOURS AGO.\r\n\r\nTHE AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO PLACE THE INITIAL MOTION AT 315/10.  THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AS\r\nFRED IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CAPE\r\nVERDE ISLANDS AND A TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THEREAFTER...\r\nFRED IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND DECELERATE AS THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOWER\r\nSYSTEM BY DAY 3...AND AS A RESULT SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE LEFT AND\r\nBE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ESPECIALLY AT THE END. IF THE SYSTEM\r\nWEAKENS FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED...A TRACK EVEN MORE TO THE WEST IS\r\nLIKELY...BUT IF FRED REMAINS A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE...THEN IT\r\nCOULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 15.9N  34.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.6N  35.1W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.4N  35.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 17.9N  34.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  34.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N  34.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N  35.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FRED STILL HAS AN EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS DISTINCT AS\r\nIT WAS YESTERDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BIT\r\nELONGATED DUE TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE\r\nHURRICANE. T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. BECAUSE FRED IS HEADING TOWARD A HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING. FRED COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EVEN EARLIER. THIS IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AT 96\r\nHOURS. BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN FRED AS STRONG\r\nTROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE BUT WITH SUCH PREVAILING HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT...THIS IS NOT REALISTIC. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND FRED\r\nIS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND DRIFT NORTHWARD OR MOST LIKELY IT WILL\r\nMEANDER FOR TWO OR THREE DAYS.  BY THEN...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP NORTH OF FRED...FORCING THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST PATH AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE\r\nFORECASTING THE WESTWARD BEND. BY THEN...GIVEN THE PREVAILING\r\nSTRONG SHEAR FRED IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN A WEAK DISTURBANCE\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 16.8N  35.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N  35.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N  35.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 18.2N  35.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 18.6N  34.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  38.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 24.0N  42.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS BECOMING ELONGATED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nCONVECTION IS STILL DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS MOSTLY\r\nTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON \r\nLOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MASSIVE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE VERY\r\nSOON. THESE WINDS ARE FUELED BY A STRONGER THAN NORMAL AND\r\nPERSISTENT MID-OCEANIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF FRED. \r\nTHIS UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FAVORS WEAKENING...AND THIS PROCESS SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...FRED\r\nSHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW.        \r\n\r\nFRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS...BUT SOON\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nBECOME STATIONARY OR BEGIN TO MEANDER AROUND 19 DEGREES NORTH\r\nDURING THE 2 OR 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING FRED OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY THEN...FRED WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE A VERY WEAK SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADE WINDS. IN IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nHAS CHANGED...AND NOW UNANIMOUSLY BEND THE TRACK WESTWARD. A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AGO...SOME OF THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF\r\nTURNED FRED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD AFRICA OR EUROPE. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 17.3N  35.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.9N  35.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.1N  35.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  35.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N  35.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  36.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 21.5N  39.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2009\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF FRED. A\r\nCOMPARISON OF THE 37- AND 85-GHZ CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM A 2212 UTC\r\nTRMM PASS INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION IS\r\nDISPLACED ABOUT 20-25 N MI NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THE\r\nMID-LEVEL REMNANT EYEWALL IS COMPLETELY ERODED ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE. THIS PATTERN HAS YIELDED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENS FRED DUE TO 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nMARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...\r\nWITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AFTER THAT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS...AND THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FRED TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM BY 24 HOURS AND ULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND FRED ARE BEGINNING TO COLLAPSE AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350 DEGREES AT 3 KT.  ONLY A SLOW\r\nNORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS AS FRED TEMPORARILY RESPONDS TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTH.  ONCE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT DOES NOT\r\nSHOW AS MUCH OF AN EASTWARD BEND AS THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nSTILL...THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND FRED COULD MEANDER A BIT\r\nDURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE\r\nACCELERATING NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 17.4N  35.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.7N  35.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.9N  34.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.0N  34.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.3N  34.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  36.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N  45.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER FRED...SO IT\r\nHAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DIAGNOSE ANY STRUCTURAL CHANGES.  OVERALL...\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS QUITE STRONG NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WITH\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLDING STEADY NEAR 77 KT.  YET\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING\r\nELONGATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH EVEN SOME HINTS\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  FOR NOW...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT...BUT\r\nTHAT ESTIMATE COULD BE A LITTLE HIGH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nAPPEARS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR LIKELY\r\nCAUSING STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH EVEN STRONGER\r\nSHEAR THEREAFTER.  ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE EXPECTED\r\nSLOW MOTION OF FRED SHOULD CAUSE UPWELLING OF COOLER WATERS AND\r\nHELP TO DIMINISH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT FRED HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH OR 000/3.\r\nLITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST PERHAPS NUDGING THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE A LITTLE NORTHEASTWARD.   ONCE FRED WEAKENS INTO A\r\nSHALLOWER SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A REBUILDING SURFACE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HR THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST\r\nAFTERWARDS...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 17.7N  35.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.9N  35.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N  34.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.2N  34.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.6N  34.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 20.0N  37.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 21.5N  42.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 22.5N  47.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING SINCE YESTERDAY\r\nAND HAS BECOME EVEN MORE ELONGATED DUE TO SHEAR. MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ONLY TO THE NORTH. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS BASED ON 4.0 AND 4.5\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE EARLIER TODAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW MASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM THE CARIBBEAN EASTWARD ACROSS\r\nTHE TROPICAL ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER THAN NORMAL\r\nMID-OCEANIC TROUGH. IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT FRED WILL SURVIVE\r\nSUCH HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFRED IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. IT IS\r\nBASICALLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND THIS PATTERN\r\nWILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING TO WHATEVER IS LEFT\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE LIGHT STEERING FLOW\r\nBY KEEPING FRED MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND TO THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE BY MOVING THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE TREND.\r\n   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 18.0N  35.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 18.1N  34.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 18.2N  34.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 18.5N  34.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N  35.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N  38.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N  49.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISRUPTED BY SHEAR AND\r\nCONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS AREA OF CONVECTION. THE CENTER IS STILL\r\nNEAR A CONCENTRATED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT MICROWAVE IMAGES...\r\nALTHOUGH SPARSE...CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...AND THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS. SINCE THE SHEAR OVER FRED\r\nIS NOT GOING TO RELAX...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND FRED WILL\r\nGRADUALLY FADE.\r\n\r\nFRED IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...AND HAS BEEN\r\nDRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. BRAVO TO MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH\r\nREALLY ANTICIPATED THIS RARE MOTION FOR SUCH A LOW LATITUDE CYCLONE\r\nLOCATED IN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL TRADE WIND BELT. LITTLE MOTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nLIGHT.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH...A PATTERN MORE COMMON FOR SEPTEMBER...PROVIDING A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING TO WHATEVER IS LEFT OF FRED. THE\r\nWESTWARD BEND AFTER THREE DAYS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 18.1N  34.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N  34.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.4N  34.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 18.8N  34.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  36.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 21.0N  40.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N  50.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION OF DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\n\r\nFRED CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST\r\nCLOUD TOPS ARE NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN A DEGREE NORTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS DISPLACEMENT IS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS OF\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. DVORAK\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC HAD DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM SAB AND 3.0\r\nFROM TAFB...WHILE FINAL T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 AND\r\n4.0...REPSECTIVELY. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 2100 UTC DID NOT\r\nSHOW ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN ABOUT 45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n50 KNOTS IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS\r\nAND THE QUIKSCAT DATA...ASSUMING THAT RAIN WAS ATTENUATING THE WIND\r\nSIGNAL SOMEWHAT. WITH THE WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND\r\nFRED MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\n...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AFTER THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRED COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE\r\n5-DAY PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nA 2016 UTC SSMI PASS...A 1941 UTC SSMIS PASS...AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nALL SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FRED IS LOCATED FARTHER\r\nSOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nVERY SLOW...060/02. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE NORTHWEST WITH\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nBEGINS TO LIFT OUT. BY 72 HOURS...LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL\r\nBUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF WHAT IS LEFT OF FRED...AND SHOULD IMPART A\r\nFASTER MOTION TOWARD THE  WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...WHICH IS A FAR\r\nSOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...AND IS NEAR OR JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 18.0N  33.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.1N  33.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 18.4N  33.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 19.2N  34.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 20.0N  35.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 22.0N  40.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 23.5N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N  51.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FRED HAS SHEARED APART THIS MORNING\r\nAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED WITH THE NEAREST CONVECTION\r\nAT LEAST 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  A 0358Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS\r\nSHOWED BELIEVABLE WINDS OF 40-45 KT...AND ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED\r\nTO 40 KT.  THERE IS NO REASON TO FORECAST ANYTHING BUT CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...MARGINAL WATER TEMPERATURES AND A\r\nDRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  FRED WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nWITHIN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF\r\nREGENERATION IN THE LONG-TERM AS THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE SHEAR\r\nAND THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE PROBABLY\r\nWILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF FRED AT THAT TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS\r\nAS STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK.  THEREAFTER FRED...OR THE REMNANTS\r\nTHEREOF...IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE AS RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  BESIDES THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH HAS DISPLAYED A\r\nSOUTHWARD BIAS FOR THIS STORM...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS PATH.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 17.8N  33.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N  33.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 18.6N  33.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  35.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 20.5N  37.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 22.5N  42.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 24.0N  48.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N  53.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 12 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FRED IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF\r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS DID SHOW SEVERAL REALISTIC 35-40 KT WINDS...MOSTLY IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO 1.5 AND 2.0\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. ASSUMING THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AS FRED IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A\r\nRATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...MARGINAL\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES...AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD...\r\nFRED WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME CHANCE...ALBEIT REMOTE...OF\r\nREGENERATION TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...THEIR\r\nREPRESENTATION OF FRED SEEMS TOO STRONG GIVEN ITS CURRENT\r\nAPPEARANCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEVEN MORE ADVERSE THAN THEY ARE NOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FRED WILL\r\nDISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFRED HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES DO YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 180/03.  SINCE\r\nFRED HAS NOW BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT IT\r\nWILL MOVE VERY LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WITHIN A RATHER\r\nWEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF FRED SHOULD TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST...SOUTH OF A BUILDING\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 17.5N  33.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N  33.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 18.4N  34.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 19.3N  36.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 20.5N  38.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.5N  44.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fred","Adv":21,"Date":"2009-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072009\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 12 2009\r\n \r\nOTHER THAN A SHORT-LIVED PUFF OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL-REMOVED FROM\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER...FRED IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT...THERE HAS BEEN NO CENTRAL CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH FRED SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC....AND FRED IS NO LONGER\r\nCLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THE LACK OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ALSO MEANS THAT FRED IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nAND IS NOW DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 30 KT...BASED UPON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND THE ASSUMPTION\r\nTHAT THERE HAS BEEN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SINCE THAT TIME. WHAT\r\nREMAINS OF FRED SHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS...AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.\r\nSEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS STILL MAINTAIN THE REMNANTS OF FRED DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD MAKE REGENERATION A SLIM POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON FRED.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 17.7N  33.7W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 18.1N  34.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 19.0N  35.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.8N  37.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 21.1N  39.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082009\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE\r\nDESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nBASED ON BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE ARE 30 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n25 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AFTER 12 HR\r\nOR SO...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK LIKELY TAKING THE CYCLONE NEAR AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BY 48 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH A TONGUE OF\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nENCOUNTERING CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST\r\n12 HR...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/12.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION TOWARD AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HR\r\nOR SO...THEN TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 16.4N  31.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N  33.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.4N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.8N  36.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.4N  38.1W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 24.0N  39.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082009\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONVECTION WAS MINIMAL BUT IT HAS BEGUN TO\r\nBLOSSOM AS WE SPEAK. ALTHOUGH THE T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...FOR\r\nTHE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS.\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION HAS A SMALL\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...\r\nSTRONG SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WILL INDUCE WEAKENING...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR SOONER. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS WHILE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.  SINCE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THE\r\nPRESENCE OF THE DEPRESSION OR DEPICT THE DEPRESSION AS A SMALL\r\nVORTMAX. \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 17.4N  32.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 18.4N  33.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.6N  36.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  37.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  38.8W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 24.0N  40.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082009\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2009\r\n \r\nWHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND AN AMSR-E PASS FROM AROUND 0400 UTC\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS STRUCTURE IS LIKELY DUE TO THE 10-15\r\nKT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 1.5 AND 2.0 FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. SSTS WILL BE 26-27C...AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING BELOW 15 KT ONLY FOR A\r\nBRIEF PERIOD FROM 12 TO 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HOLDS THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nSHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD BRIEFLY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THE GFS...NOGAPS AND HWRF SHOW THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nTURNING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A FRONT...WHILE THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND\r\nTHE MEDIUM BAM SUGGEST THAT WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE WILL TURN\r\nWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME. AT DAY 3 ONLY A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS INDICATED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 17.6N  33.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 18.7N  35.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 20.2N  36.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 21.6N  38.1W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 23.1N  39.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 24.5N  40.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082009\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...WHICH IS LIKELY TO DUE\r\nTO 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INDICATED BY\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST\r\nAXIS...WITH TWO OR THREE EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS NOTED.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS FARTHER FROM THE CENTER THAN\r\n24 HR AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n30 AND 25 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST A LARGE-DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE\r\nCOLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO MOVE EASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48-96 HR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN...AND SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS FOR RECURVATURE\r\nAFTER 72 HR.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...WHICH\r\nFORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN WITH THE REMNANT TROUGH MOVING\r\nWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nNOT ONLY ENCOUNTERING MODERATE SHEAR...BUT IS ALSO OVER A TONGUE OF\r\nCOLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HAS AN AREA OF DRY AIR JUST TO\r\nITS WEST.  WHILE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48-60 HR...THE SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nMOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND DRY AIR\r\nWILL CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO GRADUALLY DECAY OVER THE NEXT\r\n48-72 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...WITH THE INCREASING SSTS...THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN IF AND WHEN THE SHEAR DECREASES...AS\r\nSUGGESTED AFTER 72 HR BY THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE WEAKENING SCENARIO...CALLING\r\nFOR THE DEPRESSION TO DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR. \r\nHOWEVER... THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO THAN THERE\r\nWAS YESTERDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS SURVIVING\r\nLONGER THAN THEY DID 24 HR AGO...SO A 96 HR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN\r\nADDED.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nBAROCLINIC TROUGH BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 18.0N  34.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 19.1N  36.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N  37.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 21.9N  38.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N  40.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 24.5N  40.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 26.0N  37.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082009\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS WEAKENED TO AN ELONGATED TROUGH WITH\r\nSEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY CENTERS.  WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO\r\nPRODUCE CONVECTION THAT IS CLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE...IT NO LONGER HAS A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CIRCULATION TO\r\nBE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE REMNANT TROUGH OR\r\nTROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCUR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 18.9N  35.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092009\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE AZORES ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THE\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME ORGANIZATION FOR MUCH OF THE\r\nDAY...IS RELATIVELY DEEP AND SURROUNDS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT HAS\r\nPERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS.  THIS IS THE SAME SURFACE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AZORES SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND MADE A\r\nCOUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. THE LOW...PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nOCCLUDED FRONT AND CO-LOCATED WITH AN UPPER LOW...HAS SINCE LOST\r\nITS FRONTAL STRUCTURE AND IS NOW LOCATED UNDER A FAIRLY UNIFORM\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW. IN ADDITION...2210Z ASCAT DATA INDICATED A\r\nVERY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND...LESS THAN 20 MILES. WITH THESE\r\nSTRUCTURAL CHANGES...THE SYSTEM CAN NOW BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.\r\n \r\nTHE ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR THE 55\r\nKT INITIAL INTENSITY. GRACE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS AROUND 21\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS AND WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED\r\nBY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nHEADED FOR EVEN COLDER WATER AND WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN VERY\r\nSOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nGRACE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.  A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 41.2N  20.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 44.0N  18.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 48.0N  16.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092009\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2009\r\n \r\nDESPITE ITS ENVIRONMENT AND UNUSUAL LOCATION...INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT GRACE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL BUT\r\nIMPRESSIVE INNER CORE OF RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION. MORE\r\nRECENTLY...THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPANSION OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IN\r\nA RING SURROUNDING A RAGGED EYE-TYPE FEATURE. BASED ON SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE CURRENT TREND OF INCREASING\r\nORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. IT IS\r\nUNCLEAR WHETHER SURFACE WINDS MATCH THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE...\r\nESPECIALLY SINCE CONVECTIVE TOPS MIGHT LACK SOME VIGOR OVER 20C\r\nSSTS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT DATA TO CONFIRM OR DENY\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES...OTHER THAN AN ASCAT PASS OF 45-50 KT FROM MUCH\r\nEARLIER.\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT GRACE HAS ACCELERATED WHILE MOVING A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS HEADING AND IS NOW MOVING\r\n045/24.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD IN A DEEP LAYER OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND\r\nDECELERATE AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE NEARS IT FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ON\r\nTHIS TRACK...A STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GRACE MOVES OVER\r\nSUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR. GRACE SHOULD MERGE WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OR ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC\r\nWITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 43.0N  18.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 45.5N  16.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 49.0N  15.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092009\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 05 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GRACE HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE\r\nSLIGHTLY...WITH THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER\r\nBECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC AND FRACTURED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 55 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5...AND A 0644 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS WHICH\r\nSUPPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT.  ALSO...GRACE IS NOW\r\nOVER WATER NEAR 18C...AND THIS IS LIKELY INHIBITING STRONG\r\nCONVECTIVE MIXING OF WINDS TO THE SURFACE.  SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ALL INDICATE THAT GRACE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT JUST\r\nSOUTHWEST OF IRELAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nGRACE IS ACCELERATING WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 30 DEGREES AT 27 KT.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SLOW\r\nDOWN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH OF THE STRONGEST\r\nBELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE FACT THAT GRACE IS MOVING OVER VERY COLD WATERS...AN\r\nAMSU PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY STILL SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A MODERATE\r\nTO DEEP WARM CORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 0644 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 45.4N  16.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 48.0N  14.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092009\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009\r\n \r\nGRACE CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND A MODERATE TO DEEP WARM CORE AS INDICATED BY RECENT\r\nAMSU PASSES.  HOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO\r\nWARM OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER SSTS OF\r\n17-18C. THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 50 KT BASED A SUBTROPICAL\r\nCLASSIFICATION OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM\r\nSAB. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INFORMATION ON THE\r\nINTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF GRACE SOON. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HELD\r\nAT 990 MB BASED ON AN 1800 UTC OBSERVATION OF 992 MB AND A WIND OF\r\n20 KT FROM SHIP A8I02 ABOUT 30 NM NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GRACE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/26 KT...AS GRACE IS BEING STEERED\r\nBY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH ALONG 27W. BY TUESDAY MORNING...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW GRACE BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES.\r\n \r\nIT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OTHER ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS HAVE FORMED\r\nFARTHER NORTH THAN GRACE DID. IN 2008 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS\r\nFIRST CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM AT 40.6N....SLIGHTLY FARTHER\r\nNORTH THAN THE LATITUDE OF 40.2N WHERE GRACE WAS FIRST CLASSIFIED\r\nAS A TROPICAL STORM AT 0000 UTC TODAY.  ALSO...IT IS LIKELY THAT\r\nPOST-STORM ANALYSIS WILL SHOW GRACE BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM\r\nEARLIER...AND FARTHER SOUTH...THAN INDICATED OPERATIONALLY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 47.7N  14.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 50.6N  12.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092009\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2009\r\n\r\nGRACE HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\nAN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2026 UTC...PRIOR TO INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nFRONT...SHOWED A FEW 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A DECREASING AREA\r\nOF GALE FORCE WINDS AS THEY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONTAL\r\nBOUNDARY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE MAY HAVE BEEN A FEW MILLIBARS TOO HIGH...AS A\r\nRECENT SHIP OBSERVATION NEAR THE CENTER REPORTED 986.6 MB.  \r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF GRACE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UNITED KINGDOM METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE\r\nUNDER WMO HEADER WONT54 EGRR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 49.7N  13.4W   45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IT IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH HAS NOW MIGRATED OVER\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...AND A\r\n1336 UTC ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS TO 35 KT NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM HENRI.\r\nHENRI WILL STILL BE IMPACTED BY 20-25 KT OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AND IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW HENRI DISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 17 KT.  HENRI IS LOCATED ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE ATLANTIC...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  WATCHES ARE NOT\r\nREQUIRED FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AT THIS TIME SINCE THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK KEEPS THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THOSE ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORMATION OF HENRI ILLUSTRATES HOW DIFFICULT IT IS TO ANTICIPATE\r\nTHE CHANGES IN CONVECTION THAT DISTINGUISH STRONG TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCES FROM WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONES...PARTICULARLY WHEN\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nHENRI IS A FRENCH NAME AND IS PRONOUNCED AS AHN-REE WITH THE ACCENT\r\nON THE SECOND SYLLABLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 17.8N  54.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N  56.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.4N  58.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.5N  61.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO PULSATE NEAR THE CENTER OF HENRI THIS\r\nEVENING AND THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY.  \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED...SUGGESTING AN IMPROVEMENT IN \r\nORGANIZATION.  A 2151 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 40 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER THAT SEEM BELIEVABLE. \r\nON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION\r\nDUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECOUPLE AND WEAKEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR HENRI TO WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH ALL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE.  HENRI IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MAINLY\r\nTO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 18.4N  55.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 19.3N  57.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 20.5N  59.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 21.8N  61.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOWS A LARGE MASS OF\r\nVIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HENRI...WITH CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C. IN FACT...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS EXPANDED CONSIDERABLY SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING...\r\nTHOUGH THERE ARE NO BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...A 0531 UTC AMSR-E\r\nPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED...\r\nLOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. BASED\r\nUPON THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\n0600 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND RECENT\r\nOBJECTIVE ESTIMATES NEAR 3.0 FROM UW CIMSS.\r\n \r\nPERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO PREVENT\r\nHENRI FROM STRENGTHENING MUCH. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nHIGH WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVAIL OVER HENRI FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE RELAXATION THEREAFTER. THIS DOES NOT\r\nSEEM ENTIRELY REALISTIC...AS A MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT HENRI SHOULD CROSS A SHARP SHEAR AXIS NORTH OF THE NORTHEAST\r\nCARIBBEAN ISLANDS IN 36-48 HOURS AND ENCOUNTER STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT ALSO FORECASTS\r\nHENRI TO ENCOUNTER A CONVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND A RATHER\r\nANTICYCLONIC LOWER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...BOTH OF WHICH WOULD\r\nHAVE A NEGATIVE INFLUENCE ON THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A\r\nMAJORITY OF LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL MODELS...CALLING FOR THE\r\nDISSIPATION OF HENRI WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A RATHER UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION.\r\nFORTUNATELY...A 0531 UTC AMSR-E PASS HAS ALLOWED FOR A MORE\r\nCONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/11...FARTHER LEFT THAN IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE DOMINANT STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF HENRI...WITH A MINOR\r\nWEAKNESS AT UPPER LEVELS NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FLOW\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR ITS MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MORE WESTERLY MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 18.1N  56.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.9N  58.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 20.0N  60.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.2N  62.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 21.2N  63.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF HENRI HAS BECOME EXPOSED\r\nAGAIN TO THE WEST OF A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nLOW-CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTER LOOKS A LITTLE LESS WELL-DEFINED THAN\r\nYESTERDAY.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THE ADVISORY. \r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nHENRI WILL ENCOUNTER A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THEN COME\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG...CONVERGENT...NORTHEASTERLY UPPER\r\nFLOW.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE RATHER HOSTILE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nPACKAGES BY SHOWING THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD\r\nFAVOR A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF HENRI OVER THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED BECOME STRONGER AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nOR ITS REMNANT.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nTRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 18.9N  57.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.6N  59.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.6N  61.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 21.2N  62.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 21.2N  64.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009\r\n \r\nHENRI IS WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING\r\nEVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ALSO IS BECOMING LESS WELL-DEFINED WITH A\r\nSECONDARY CENTER NOTED ON RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES.  A BLEND OF THE\r\nTAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES GIVEN AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT...\r\nBUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST\r\nSHEAR IS LIKELY FOR A DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE.  IF HENRI SURVIVES THAT SHEAR...AN UPPER-TROUGH AXIS WITH\r\nCONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE THE KNOCKOUT BLOW TO THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING DISSIPATION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nIF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE CENTER...THIS SYSTEM\r\nCOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW.\r\n \r\nUSING A MEAN MOTION OF THE TWO CENTERS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n290/12.  A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH IS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nBEFORE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD\r\nCAUSE HENRI...OR THE REMNANTS THEREOF...TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN\r\nSOUTH OF WEST UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.  THIS SOLUTION HAS GOOD\r\nSUPPORT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE NEAR BAM SHALLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 19.4N  58.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.1N  60.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 20.9N  62.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 21.2N  63.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 21.0N  66.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF HENRI IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF A PERSISTENT AREA OF\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE IS DUE TO ABOUT\r\n25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND ON THIS BASIS...HENRI IS BEING\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET\r\nAT 30 KT.  THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST\r\nFOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE THE CYCLONE.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT HENRI...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL BE MOVING\r\nUNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS BETWEEN 12 AND 36 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHEASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL\r\nIMPACT THE SYSTEM. THIS UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nCALLS FOR HENRI TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER\r\nDAY.  THEREAFTER...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC CAUSING HENRI...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO TURN WESTWARD\r\nOR SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL HEADING AND IS NEAR THE BAM\r\nSHALLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 19.5N  59.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 20.1N  61.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 20.7N  63.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 20.9N  65.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 20.6N  67.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...THE CONVECTION IS POORLY\r\nORGANIZED AND PROBABLY TRANSIENT.  HENRI HAS A VERY SMALL\r\nCIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DIAGNOSED AT AROUND 20 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN \r\n12 TO 24 HOURS IF NOT SOONER.  THE SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nUPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...\r\nHENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE\r\n200 MB ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHEAR OVER HENRI OR ITS REMNANT DISTURBANCE WILL PROBABLY LESSEN\r\nSOMEWHAT IN A DAY OR TWO...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED ANTICYCLONE SHOULD PRODUCE A LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 285/13. \r\nHENRI OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR\r\nEVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES\r\nINFLUENCED BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EXTREME\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 19.9N  61.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 20.5N  62.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 20.8N  64.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 20.7N  66.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N  69.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 08 2009\r\n \r\nHENRI REMAINS A POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH EVIDENCE\r\nFROM SATELLITE IMAGES OF MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS\r\nWITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN DWINDLING DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE BANDING NOTED.\r\nA 1012 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...AND\r\nTHIS VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nREMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nTODAY...FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT.\r\nNEITHER OF THESE SITUATIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND\r\nHENRI SHOULD JUST SLOWLY WEAKEN. ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED\r\nLATER TODAY UNLESS THE SYSTEM SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  HENRI OR ITS REMNANT\r\nLOW SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 19.8N  62.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 20.1N  63.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.2N  65.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 20.2N  67.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 20.2N  70.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Henri","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102009\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 08 2009\r\n \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DEVOURED YET ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS\r\nYEAR.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HENRI HAS ONLY A WEAK LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  THUS...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HENRI ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE WESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 20.4N  62.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.6N  64.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N  66.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N  69.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-11-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE\r\nCONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW\r\nBURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING\r\nFEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED.  TAFB/SAB DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0...30 KT...AT 1200 UTC...AND THAT INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM\r\nDUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nWILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nWINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7...THOUGH IT IS\r\nUNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER\r\nREFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nPATTERN...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON\r\nTHE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.  HOWEVER...SOME OF\r\nTHE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER\r\nENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST\r\nLEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY\r\nMODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A\r\nHURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM\r\nMODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL.  THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A\r\nLITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 11.6N  82.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 11.9N  82.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 12.5N  83.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 13.0N  83.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 13.5N  84.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 14.5N  84.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 15.5N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N  85.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-11-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nWITH STRONG BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 53 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 48 KT...AND A FALLING MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 996 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF\r\nABOUT 50 KT...AND THUS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED IDA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...AND\r\nIS NOW 300/5.  IDA IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING\r\nBETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE STORM SLOWLY MOVING\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PART OF THE\r\nCARIBBEAN RIDGE.  ONLY THE UKMET MODEL NOW KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER\r\nWATER WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...IDA DOES NOT\r\nHAVE MUCH MORE TIME LEFT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NICARAGUA.   THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...\r\nSHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING OF IDA...AND THEN REDUCED THEREAFTER DUE\r\nTO THE EFFECTS OF LAND.  IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nCOULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY\r\nRAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM IDA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 12.0N  82.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 12.4N  83.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.0N  84.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 13.7N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 14.5N  85.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.0N  85.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N  86.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N  86.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-11-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST AIRCRAFT PENETRATION OF THE STORM...THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nOF IDA HAS REMAINED WELL ORGANIZED WITH A PROMINENT COLD-TOPPED CDO\r\nAND SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A RECENT\r\nSSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED A BANDING-TYPE EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB BUT THESE\r\nARE CONSTRAINED BY THE RULES OF THE TECHNIQUE.  BASED ON THE\r\nEARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED AND THERE REMAINS A SHORT PERIOD PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL FOR IDA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE.  RAPID WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY WHEN THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.  IDA IS PROJECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER THE WATERS OF\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...BECAUSE\r\nIT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE ITS\r\nTRANSIT OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/6.  IDA IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON\r\nA GENERAL NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...BUT VARY\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY\r\nHEAVY RAINS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 12.5N  83.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 12.9N  83.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 13.5N  84.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 14.3N  84.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 15.1N  84.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N  85.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-11-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n400 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. EARLIER THERE WAS A LARGE EXPANSION OF COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHILE IN THE LAST HOUR OR\r\nTWO THE COLDEST TOPS HAVE TAKEN ON A MORE BANDED APPEARANCE. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nHOWEVER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FOUND THAT IDA WAS ALREADY THAT\r\nSTRONG YESTERDAY WHEN IT HAD A MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCOAST OF NICARAGUA REFLECTS THE SMALL CHANCE THAT IDA COULD REACH\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AS IS MAKES LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST AS THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES IDA BACK OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  HOWEVER\r\n...THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE...SINCE\r\nIDA MAY NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH WATER AGAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/06. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...AS IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A\r\nWEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  BEYOND THAT TIME...\r\nMUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN \r\nFORWARD SPEED AS WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GIVEN THE\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nSHOWN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL WHICH IS A FAR EASTERN\r\nOUTLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY\r\nHEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 12.8N  83.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 13.3N  83.9W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 13.9N  84.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 14.7N  84.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 15.7N  84.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N  85.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N  86.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-11-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 AM EST THU NOV 05 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA CONTINUED TO IMPROVE UP UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL...WHICH OCCURRED NEAR TASBAPAUNI NICARAGUA...OR ABOUT\r\n60 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS.  AN 1117 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGE SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT WAS LOCATED JUST INLAND AT THAT\r\nTIME.  A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nAROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  SINCE\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT.  IDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nAS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK BRINGS THE CENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AND ONLY MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER IDA EMERGES OVER WATER. THERE\r\nREMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER RANGE\r\nFORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT SURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05. IDA IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND\r\nA WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE\r\nFIRST 36 TO 48 HOUR OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...THE TRACK\r\nMODELS MOVE IDA IN A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST DIRECTION \r\nINTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLIGHTLY\r\nRIGHT OF...AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nTHE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES\r\nCAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND\r\nHONDURAS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 13.1N  83.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 13.6N  84.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 14.3N  84.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 15.0N  84.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N  84.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 18.4N  85.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-11-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n400 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED SINCE IT\r\nMADE LANDFALL THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nIDA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/3.  THE FORECAST REASONING HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nREASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE EASTWARD AND IS A LITTLE FASTER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE MODELS SHOW A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nINTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE NOGAPS IS ALONG THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE THE\r\nENVELOPE...BUT REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHEASTERN\r\nNICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE\r\nNORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE\r\nEXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. \r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD WESTERLY WINDS BECOME QUITE STRONG AND SHOULD\r\nARREST FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE LONGER-RANGE FORECAST...SINCE IDA MAY NOT\r\nSURVIVE ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nTHE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES\r\nCAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND\r\nHONDURAS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 13.3N  83.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 13.9N  83.9W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 14.9N  84.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N  84.3W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.1N  84.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 19.6N  85.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 25.0N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-11-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 PM EST THU NOV 05 2009\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE\r\nTHAT IDA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  WHAT REMAINS OF THE\r\nDIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANTS.  SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IDA CONTINUES ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nOVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. AROUND THE 36\r\nHOUR PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD EMERGE OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA AND...ASSUMING THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO SEVERELY\r\nDISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...THE SYSTEM SHOULD RESTRENGTHEN\r\nINTO A TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ONLY A\r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT OVER THE\r\nREGION...WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS IDA\r\nHEADS IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  AFTER IDA\r\nENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO....THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE ON AN\r\nINCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE FORMER...SHOW SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF IDA IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE RECALLED HOWEVER THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A\r\nHIGH BIAS IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...AS WAS THE CASE WITH\r\nTROPICAL STORMS DANNY...ERIKA...AND HENRI OF THIS YEAR. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE WEAKER LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/4...WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE. WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF FORWARD SPEED DISPARITIES...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS. \r\nAROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD...MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTURN TO THE RIGHT AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE WESTERLIES. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO WILL LIKELY BE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES\r\nCAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND\r\nHONDURAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 13.8N  84.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 14.4N  84.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.4N  84.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.6N  84.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 17.7N  85.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 20.3N  86.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 23.0N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N  87.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-11-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n400 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LARGELY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE COLDEST TOPS FOUND IN A\r\nBAND EXTENDING FROM EASTERN HONDURAS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IDA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY WHILE THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS OVER LAND.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF IDA\r\nWILL REMAIN EAST OF THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS\r\nBEFORE IT EMERGES OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  IF IDA SURVIVES UNTIL THEN IT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nRESTRENGTHEN.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING IDA REACHING\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING WHILE\r\nTHE LGEM SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER\r\nTO THE LATTER SCENARIO AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DEPICTED BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION ONCE IDA MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO NUDGE TO THE RIGHT AND IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 350/05 AS IDA MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  A GENERAL NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS BRINGING\r\nIDA INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THEN INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nIDA INTERACTING WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND MANY OF THE MODELS RESPOND BY\r\nTURNING IDA NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE BIGGEST IMPACT OF THIS IDA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO WILL LIKELY BE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY\r\nHEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 14.4N  84.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 15.2N  84.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 16.4N  84.4W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 17.4N  84.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.7N  85.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N  86.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 24.0N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 27.0N  86.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-11-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 AM EST FRI NOV 06 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO\r\nFORM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IDA...THOUGH SOMEWHAT REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 42057 SHOWED PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 29\r\nKT EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT\r\n30 KT. IDA WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING\r\nOVERNIGHT AFTER IT EMERGES FROM EASTERN HONDURAS. THERE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE A LARGE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON HOW MUCH\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO EXPECT WITH IDA. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY SHOWS A RATHER MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...WHILE\r\nTHE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IDA WILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE AGAIN. SINCE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 20 KT OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND EVEN\r\nHIGHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY MUCH\r\nCLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF PERIOD...SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS SHOWN DUE TO SHEAR BECOMING STRONG AND COOLER WATERS\r\nIN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY START THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF IDA.\r\n \r\nIDA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH...360/6. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS FORECAST TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IDA SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS. IN THE LONG-RANGE...A TROUGH\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD FORCE IDA TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR\r\nNORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE INTERACTION OF IDA WITH THAT TROUGH IS\r\nCAUSING A WIDE VARIETY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS... RANGING FROM A FASTER\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LANDFALL TO IDA REMAINING SEPARATE FROM THE\r\nTROUGH AND STAYING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS. ALTHOUGH SOME OF\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST RUN...CLIMATOLOGY\r\nAND THE FORECAST STRONG UPPER- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SUGGEST\r\nTHE EASTERN SOLUTIONS ARE LIKELY CLOSER TO REALITY. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ON THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL A THREAT OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES CAUSED BY EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 15.0N  84.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 15.7N  84.1W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 16.8N  84.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 17.9N  85.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.1N  85.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 22.5N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 27.0N  86.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-11-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n400 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA DURING THE DAY.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES STILL SHOW A RATHER ASYMMETRIC SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE\r\nSIGNIFICANT BANDING ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.  NOW THAT IDA IS\r\nOFFSHORE OVER VERY WARM WATERS...THE SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO RE-\r\nINTENSIFY.  THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN IS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...WHERE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  SHEAR\r\nIS LIKELY TO GET RATHER STRONG BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...WITH COOLER WATERS PRESENT...SO WEAKENING\r\nWILL BE SHOWN AT THAT TIME.  WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nHIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...THERE IS A LITTLE LESS\r\nSPREAD THAN EARLIER.  THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS\r\nIN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID...AND REDUCES\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nIDA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH...360/7.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW DUE TO SHORTWAVE\r\nRIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYSTEM PASSING OVER OR JUST TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER IDA\r\nENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A TRACK TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH OR NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY AN APPROACHING\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY COMPLEX IN THE LONG\r\nRANGE WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN HOW IDA WILL INTERACT WITH\r\nTHAT TROUGH.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THEN TURNING EASTWARD OR EVEN\r\nSOUTH OF EAST.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT IDA WILL LIKELY BE\r\nTRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME...AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE QUITE VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TRANSITION. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT THE LONG RANGE...BUT\r\nREMAINS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nIT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE\r\nAREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY\r\nATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 15.7N  83.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 16.7N  84.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 17.9N  84.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.1N  85.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.6N  86.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 24.5N  88.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 27.5N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 27.5N  85.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-11-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 PM EST FRI NOV 06 2009\r\n \r\nA 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF IDA WAS LOCATED JUST OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS AND\r\nWAS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nNEW CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO THE CENTER...AND DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 KT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nNOAA BUOY 42057...LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 KT...BUT\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THIS OCCURRED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SQUALL AND MAY\r\nNOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE...IDA\r\nIS KEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS\r\nPROBABLY VERY CLOSE TO REGAINING TROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nIDA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 360/6.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nBETWEEN JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER MEXICO\r\nARE EXPECTED TO STEER IDA NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD\r\nALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS AND\r\nHAVE FORCED THE MODEL CONSENSUS A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST.  THE\r\nFORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS IS STILL COMPLEX AND IS DEPENDENT ON HOW\r\nIDA INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IDA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY\r\n96 HOURS ONCE IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT...BUT THE SOLUTIONS VARY ON\r\nWHERE THE LOW GOES NEXT.  ONLY THE 1200 UTC ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW\r\nIDA BECOMING PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE OTHER MODELS INDICATE A\r\nMORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AT 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH WATERS ARE WARM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HAMPER MUCH INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MAKE IDA A HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...A SCENARIO THAT DOES NOT SEEM PLAUSIBLE IN THE FACE OF\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 50 OR 60 KT BY DAY\r\n4.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT...WHICH IS\r\nJUST BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nIT IS OF NOTE THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE\r\nAREA OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY\r\nATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 16.2N  84.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.1N  84.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 18.4N  84.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 19.7N  85.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 21.4N  86.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  88.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 27.5N  87.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 26.5N  85.6W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-11-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n400 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED\r\nLOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nTO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM SAB AND\r\n45 KT FROM TAFB.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nIDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE\r\nTHE DETAILS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN IDA\r\nAND THE TROUGH DIFFER...MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nTHE NOGAPS AND GFDN...SHOW IDA TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  IDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL DURING THIS TIME AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A\r\nLOW-LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  BY DAY 5\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT...AND WHAT IS LEFT OF IDA...\r\nTURNING SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW OFFICIAL THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWHILE IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...AS\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nFURTHER AS IDA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE GIVEN\r\nTHE OBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 50 KT IN 36\r\nHOURS. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN ON DAY 2 AS IDA ENCOUNTERS THE STRONGER SHEAR AND BEGINS TO\r\nUNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPING\r\nBETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LARGE AREA OF\r\nSTRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO\r\nIDA.\r\n \r\nTHE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 17.1N  84.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.1N  84.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.5N  85.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 21.0N  86.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 23.0N  87.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 26.5N  88.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 28.0N  86.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 27.0N  85.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-11-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF\r\nIDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF\r\nHOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT\r\nSHEAR.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH\r\nAGENCIES...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE STORM.\r\n \r\nIDA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/8.  IDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nDURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE\r\nMODELS AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND\r\nHWRF ALL MOVE THE CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW IT REACHING\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED\r\nNORTHWARD...BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM GENERALLY EASTWARD BEFORE REACHING\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...BUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...WHILE NOT IDEAL...APPEAR CONDUCIVE ENOUGH\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE\r\nTRAVERSES THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. \r\nONCE IDA REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nAND WATERS BEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO\r\nWEAKENING...HOWEVER THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AN\r\nEXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LESS\r\nWEAKENING THAN TYPICAL...GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN\r\nA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF\r\nSTRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY\r\nATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 17.9N  84.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 18.9N  84.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.3N  85.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 22.2N  86.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 24.6N  88.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 28.5N  88.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 29.0N  86.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 28.0N  85.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-11-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n400 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES...WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST.  THE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 68\r\nKT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 60 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KT.  CIRRUS ELEMENTS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nSUGGESTING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE.  HOWEVER IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SHEAR WILL BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH IN THE SHORT-TERM TO INHIBIT SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  IDA WILL BE TRAVERSING THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW\r\nUNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS IDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12\r\nHOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  AFTER IDA REACHES\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND WATERS\r\nBEGIN TO COOL. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MORE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n \r\nIDA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED\r\nTODAY.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND HEADING.  THEREAFTER...THERE REMAINS\r\nSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW IDA INTERACTS\r\nWITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE 12Z GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nHAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD.  THE NEW TRACK NOW SHOWS A\r\nPOSITION JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BY 120 HOURS...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT PROVIDE A 5-DAY POSITION FOR THIS\r\nREASON.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN\r\nA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO A LARGE AREA OF\r\nSTRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS NOT DIRECTLY\r\nATTRIBUTABLE TO IDA.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 18.9N  84.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.1N  84.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.6N  85.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 23.8N  87.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 26.3N  88.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 29.5N  87.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 29.5N  86.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-11-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1000 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA\r\nSINCE THE AIR FORCE PLANE LEFT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nBEING IMPACTED BY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD\r\nAT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nOF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND AN OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE OF 61\r\nKT.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE IDA IN A FEW HOURS TO PROVIDE UPDATED INFORMATION.\r\n\r\nIDA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340\r\nDEGREES AT 10 KT AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER\r\nMEXICO AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. TO HISPANIOLA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS ON A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...ALL THE MODELS BRING IDA TO THE\r\nCOAST NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BUT\r\nQUICKLY TURN IT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE ABSORBING COLD FRONT\r\nPUSHES SOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SOME SHEAR IS AFFECTING IDA...IT IS NOT PROHIBITIVELY\r\nSTRONG.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ARE PROVIDING\r\nSOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE IDA A 24-36\r\nHOUR WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE AFTER 36 HOURS AND SHOULD LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING...BUT THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WEAKENING COULD BE\r\nSLOWER TO OCCUR THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  IDA SHOULD BEGIN THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS AROUND 48 HOURS AND BE FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS ALREADY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT THESE WINDS ARE NOT\r\nDIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE CIRCULATION OF IDA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 20.1N  84.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.2N  85.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 23.0N  86.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.4N  87.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 27.7N  87.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 29.0N  85.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-11-08 07:15:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n115 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE SHORT-TERM\r\nINTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST OF IDA. BASED ON THE OBSERVED \r\nINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM IN THE LAST FEW HOURS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS RAISED TO 85 KT AT 12 AND 24 HOURS...WITH THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT IDA COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT SOMETIME\r\nTODAY.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE FIX AROUND 0600 UTC...WHICH WAS\r\nABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS...INCREASING\r\nTHE LIKELIHOOD THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD IMPACT THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THIS NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF\r\nA HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS\r\nTIME. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0715Z 20.2N  85.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.1N  85.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 22.8N  87.1W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 25.4N  87.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 27.7N  87.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 29.0N  85.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-11-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n300 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF IDA HAS HALTED...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. THE\r\nLATEST PRESSURE MEASURED ON A PASS THROUGH THE CENTER WAS 984\r\nMB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...AS IDA WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...IDA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATERS...BELOW 26C AFTER 48 HOURS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL\r\nINCREASE MARKEDLY AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPINGES ON IDA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS IDA UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE 48 TO 72 HOUR\r\nTIME FRAME AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND A SURFACE FRONT\r\nALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IDA\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWEST...OR 325/10. THIS IS TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS THE FLOW AROUND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA MAY BE\r\nTUGGING IDA A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH\r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IDA ACCELERATES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH THAT\r\nMOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD\r\nCOMPARED TO THE LAST PACKAGE...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...\r\nWHICH NOW TAKES THE CENTER OF IDA VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHEASTERN TIP\r\nOF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. IDA WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AND APPROACH THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AS IDA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH REGARD TO THE ULTIMATE\r\nFATE OF IDA. FOR EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nREMNANTS OF IDA CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...WHILE THE GFS LEAVES THE REMNANTS OF IDA BEHIND A STRONGER\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW THAT FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  \r\nGIVEN THE LARGE RANGE OF POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 4...AND HAS IDA\r\nDISSIPATING AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 5. THERE\r\nIS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nSCENARIO.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS REACHING\r\nPORTIONS OF THE U.S. GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE IDA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nAROUND THAT TIME...THESE HAZARDS ARE BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR\r\nPRODUCT SUITE WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES... WARNINGS\r\n...AND ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 20.5N  85.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.8N  86.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 24.0N  87.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 26.7N  88.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 28.5N  88.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 29.8N  86.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 28.0N  84.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-11-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n900 AM CST SUN NOV 08 2009\r\n\r\nTHE LAST PASS OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR\r\n1100 UTC SHOWED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB AND AN ELLIPTICAL EYE. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA AND MEXICO SINCE THAT\r\nTIME SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE HAS OCCURRED IN THE STRUCTURE.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 AND 77 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS\r\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS\r\nCURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9.  IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE\r\nNORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCOVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO.  THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...\r\nECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A FASTER NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...WITH THE CENTER OF IDA REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN\r\n36-48 HR.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 48 HR...ALTHOUGH IT IS SLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND ITS\r\nCOLLEAGUES.  THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION ALSO RESULTS IN A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY POSITION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK...SO\r\nTHE 72-96 HR POSITIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AS WELL.\r\n\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.  AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR\r\nMASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY ABOUT 24 HOURS AND IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HR.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS THROUGH 48 HR...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH THAT TIME.\r\nIN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nFORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST.  IT IS\r\nNOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT\r\nABSORBS IDA.  AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST USES THE SCENARIO THAT\r\nTHIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.\r\n \r\nWHILE IT IS LIKELY THAT IDA WILL LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL STORM- OR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COAST BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE. \r\nTHUS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME.  OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE...FOR NOW...BEING HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE\r\nWITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 21.2N  86.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.8N  87.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 25.6N  88.4W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 28.2N  88.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  87.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL \r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-11-08 18:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n1200 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO EXTEND THE HURRICANE WATCH\r\nEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA. \r\nTHERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nREGULAR ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT BASED ON\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WIND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT JUST PENETRATED THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHIS ADVISORY REPLACES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT\r\n1800 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1800Z 21.7N  86.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 22.8N  87.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 25.6N  88.4W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 28.2N  88.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  87.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 30.0N  81.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-11-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n300 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF IDA HAS FALLEN TO 976 MB.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KT...WITH\r\nSFMR ESTIMATES OF 80-85 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS 85 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND CUBA\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WHICH MAY BE A SIGN THAT IDA IS BEING AFFECTED BY\r\nONGOING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9.  IDA REMAINS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF MEXICO AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS AND AN\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE\r\nNORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCOVERS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE TROUGH AND RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING IDA TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN BOTH\r\nTHE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THE MODELS FORECAST LANDFALLS ON THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE ON THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE WITH A SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA\r\nLANDFALL.  THE HWRF IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE WITH A LANDFALL IN THE\r\nWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THE UKMET IS NOTABLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A LANDFALL AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE\r\nVARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE MODEL SPREAD GETS\r\nVERY LARGE DUE TO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE\r\nWESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION...BUT THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE MAY BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE NEXT\r\n6-12 HR.  AFTER THAT...IDA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...INTO A COOLER AIR MASS...AND INTO STRONGER SHEAR.\r\nWHILE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BEFORE IDA MAKES\r\nLANDFALL...IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THE CYCLONE WILL COMPLETELY LOSE ITS\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE LANDFALL.  IN ADDITION...MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST IDA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS IDA AS A WEAKENING HURRICANE THROUGH\r\nLANDFALL...THEN FORECASTS EXTRATROPICAL TO FINISH AFTER LANDFALL.\r\nIN THE 72-120 HR TIME FRAME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nFORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST.  IT IS\r\nNOT CLEAR WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF IDA OR A SECOND LOW THAT\r\nABSORBS IDA.  THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO USE THE SCENARIO THAT\r\nTHIS IS A SECOND LOW THAT ABSORBS THE REMAINS OF IDA.\r\n \r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY OVER THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION REQUIRES\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHETHER IDA LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS...HEAVY\r\nRAINS...AND STORM SURGES TO THAT AREA.  OUTSIDE OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWATCH AREA....POTENTIAL HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH IDA ARE BEING\r\nHANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ALONG THE GULF\r\nCOAST IN THEIR PRODUCT SUITE WITH MARINE AND COASTAL FLOOD\r\nWATCHES...WARNINGS...AND ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 22.2N  86.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 23.9N  87.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 26.7N  88.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 29.2N  87.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 30.7N  86.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 31.0N  83.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 30.0N  79.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":21,"Date":"2009-11-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n900 PM CST SUN NOV 08 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF IDA HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE HURRICANE JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC.  DURING THE\r\nLAST COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A\r\nMAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A SFMR SURFACE WIND\r\nOF 84 KT. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  ANOTHER AIR\r\nFORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO REACH IDA AROUND 0600 UTC. \r\n\r\nTHE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES PROVIDE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 345/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  IDA IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF MEXICO AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE TRACK MODELS\r\nAPPEAR TO BE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTO NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE 12Z RUNS OF\r\nTHE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE A LITTLE WEST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND SHOW A TRACK NEAR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER.  AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...THE MODELS\r\nTURN IDA EASTWARD THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nSUIT...BUT DOES NOT SHOW AS SHARP A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS SOME OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  THE AIR FORCE ALSO FLEW A SURVEILLANCE\r\nMISSION AROUND AND NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON AND THAT\r\nDATA SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODELS.\r\n\r\nIDA IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE COOLER WATERS...AND MOVE INTO A\r\nCOOLER AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. \r\nAS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IT WILL ALSO\r\nLIKELY BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING\r\nMORE LIKELY THAT IDA WILL RETAIN ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nTHROUGH LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AND ALL SHOW IDA AROUND HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE AND KEEPS THE\r\nCYCLONE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST.  THIS HAS REQUIRED\r\nTHE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF COAST. \r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 23.7N  86.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 25.8N  87.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  87.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 30.5N  87.1W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 31.2N  85.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 30.5N  82.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ida","Adv":22,"Date":"2009-11-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n300 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL ON IDA.  THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE RISEN TO 988 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE\r\nMEASUREMENT OF 991 WITH ABOUT 30 KT OF WIND.  ALSO...THE FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL AND SFMR WIND DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nBECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS SEEN IN RECENT\r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS THE COLDEST CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE AIRCRAFT FIXES. THE\r\nMAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SO FAR\r\nWAS 74 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR OVER IDA IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED AT MORE THAN 30 KT BY\r\nUW-CIMSS...AND IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH COOLER WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF\r\nIDA OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nTREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD\r\n...AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS. AT 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE DECAY\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE WELL INLAND BY THAT TIME.\r\nAS IDA MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT\r\n...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  \r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IDA WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS\r\nAND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT IDA IS MOVING ALONG\r\nA HEADING OF 335/14...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. IDA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD\r\nOF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN WESTERN OUTLIERS\r\nWITH A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE THROUGH 24 HOURS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...IDA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE\r\nEAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO. MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...ALONG WITH THE GFDL...SHOW WHAT IS\r\nLEFT OF IDA DISSIPATING BY 72 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONT\r\nTHAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BEHIND A DEVELOPING\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 25.1N  87.9W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 27.2N  88.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 29.6N  87.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 30.9N  86.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  85.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":23,"Date":"2009-11-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n900 AM CST MON NOV 09 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE DATA THAT SUPPORTED HURRICANE INTENSITY WERE\r\nOBTAINED AROUND 07Z...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF IDA HAS\r\nBEEN STEADILY DETERIORATING DURING THE MORNING.  MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND WILL BE MOVING ONSHORE SHORTLY...LEAVING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AROUND 12Z SHOWED\r\nWINDS OF 50-55 KT IN THE CORE...AND ASSUMING THAT THE INSTRUMENT\r\nDID NOT QUITE RESOLVE THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 60 KT.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE\r\nCYCLONE AROUND 18Z.\r\n\r\nWITH IDA MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOLER WATERS AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE BEING\r\nDISCONTINUED...LEAVING ONLY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN PLACE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL ABOVE THE ICON CONSENSUS.   \r\n\r\nTHE LAST AIRCRAFT CENTER FIX SHOWED THE 700 MB- AND SURFACE CENTERS\r\nDECOUPLING...AND SINCE THEN THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT\r\nTO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n340/15. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. IDA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD TODAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND\r\nTHEN TURN EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS MID-LATITUDE\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK OF THE SURFACE CENTER OF IDA IS LOSING SIGNIFICANCE IN\r\nTERMS OF THE EFFECTS OF THIS STORM.  STRONG WINDS COVER A LARGE\r\nAREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINS ARE MOVING WELL\r\nAHEAD OF THE CENTER.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS IDA\r\nWEAKENS AND BEGINS TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 26.5N  88.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 28.6N  88.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 30.4N  88.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 31.2N  86.6W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  84.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":24,"Date":"2009-11-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n300 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009\r\n \r\nWITH ONE INTERESTING EXCEPTION...THE LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IDA\r\nREMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. A CONVECTIVE BURST THAT\r\nBEGAN A FEW HOURS AGO HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THE WEAKENING TREND.\r\nPEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 58\r\nKT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 60 KT. ON THE MOST\r\nRECENT OUTBOUND PASS...HOWEVER...THE SFMR DID REPORT A VERY SMALL\r\nAREA OF 70-75 KT SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER JUST\r\nDOWNWIND OF THE CONVECTIVE BURST. GIVEN THAT THE CONCURRENT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE ONLY 45 TO 55 KT...THIS APPEARS TO BE A\r\nLOCAL CONVECTIVE-SCALE PEAK UNREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nSSTS BELOW THE CENTER ARE NOW ABOUT 26C...AND GET PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO BE\r\nINCREASING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSTILL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF BAROCLINIC RE-INTENSIFICATION\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND SO A RESUMPTION OF THE EARLIER WEAKENING\r\nTREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE SOON.\r\n\r\nIDA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD...355/16. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW APPRECIABLY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS MUCH LONGER IDA WILL\r\nLIKELY MOVE ON SHORE SOONER THAN FORECAST. MY OFFICIAL 12 HOUR\r\nFORECAST POINT IS ALREADY AHEAD OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND CALLS FOR IDA TO TURN EASTWARD AFTER LANDFALL AS IT\r\nBECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF.\r\n \r\nSTRONG WINDS COVER A LARGE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RAINBANDS\r\nARE ALREADY MOVING ONSHORE WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER.  GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION AND CONVECTIVE VIGOR...IDA SHOULD MAINTAIN TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS THROUGH LANDFALL. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 28.4N  88.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 30.2N  88.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 31.0N  87.1W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  85.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 30.0N  83.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":25,"Date":"2009-11-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n900 PM CST MON NOV 09 2009\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER DURING THE AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED AND SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX THAT POSITIONED\r\nTHE CENTER EAST OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA WELL SOUTH OF THE\r\nREMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF IDA HAS SLOWED TO\r\nABOUT 11 KT.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS A CONTINUED\r\nREDUCTION IN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM AND A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY THROUGH 12 HOURS AND IS THEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD\r\nCLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nOF 71 KT AND A SMFR SURFACE WIND OF 51 KT.  THIS SUPPORTS AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  IDA SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH\r\nLANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS.  ONCE INLAND THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSHORTLY THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nBEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 36-48 HOURS AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n   \r\nTHE LOCATION AND TIMING OF IDA'S LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE\r\nSIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE\r\nAREA AND MOST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS ALREADY SPREADING ONSHORE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 29.3N  88.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 30.8N  87.9W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 31.5N  86.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 31.3N  84.8W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":26,"Date":"2009-11-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n300 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF IDA IS NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AS THE COLDEST\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHEAR OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND EAST\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE SHOW\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS SLOWLY RISEN TO 999 MB.  THE HIGHEST\r\n850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nWAS 53 KT AT 0733 UTC...AND THE HIGHEST RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE\r\nAROUND 40 KT.  WINDS AT THE NUMEROUS MARINE PLATFORMS ALONG THE\r\nGULF COAST HAVE ALSO BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nBASED ON ALL THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST...\r\nALTHOUGH IDA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY\r\nWHEN IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF IDA BEING ABSORBED INTO\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLINIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT INDICATED THAT IDA\r\nWAS MOVING ONLY VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER\r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES AND MULTI-CHANNEL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THAT A FASTER MOTION JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH MAY\r\nHAVE BEGUN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/08. DATA FROM\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND LESS WELL-DEFINED. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WHICH COULD BE\r\nBEGINNING NOW AND FINALLY WOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND LATER\r\nTODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION AND MORE WESTERLY\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND A SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nTHE FACT THAT THE LANDFALL OF IDA HAS BEEN DELAYED HAS LITTLE\r\nSIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COVER A LARGE\r\nAREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS\r\nALREADY SPREAD ONSHORE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 29.9N  88.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 30.8N  88.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 31.0N  86.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 30.4N  84.4W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":27,"Date":"2009-11-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112009\r\n900 AM CST TUE NOV 10 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT IDA HAS BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COMMA-LIKE\r\nAPPEARANCE AND TEMPERATURE DATA FROM DAUPHIN ISLAND SHOWED A 5F\r\nTEMPERATURE DECREASE AFTER THE CENTER PASSED THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN A COUPLE OF ELEVATED MARINE STATIONS REPORTING\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OVER 34 KT...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT THESE\r\nWINDS ARE SURFACE-BASED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE WITH IDA\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THESE WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY CONFINED\r\nOVER WATER.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/8.  GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON IDA\r\nTURNING EASTWARD AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO A DEVELOPING FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST WILL SHOW ABSORPTION OF IDA BY\r\nA NEW MID-LATITUDE LOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IDA WILL BECOME THE\r\nDOMINANT BAROCLINIC LOW.  \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION \r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1 AND WMO HEADER WTNT31\r\nKWNH...BEGINNING AT 3 PM CST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 30.6N  87.6W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 30.9N  86.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 30.7N  84.9W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 30.0N  82.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-06-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nSOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE\r\nDESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE 2009 EAST\r\nPACIFIC SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/08.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nPATTERN...SHOWING A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT.  THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nTHE UPPER LOW WILL STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND\r\nTOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE\r\nLEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT...WHICH SHOWS THE BEST DEPICTION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM IN ITS FIELDS.\r\n \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE\r\nFIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON THE LIMITED\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE 0000 UTC RUN OF THE GFDL.\r\nADDITIONALLY...THE INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT SHOWS THAT THERE IS\r\nA 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY\r\nAFTERNOON.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO AND LAS ISLAS MARIAS.  RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION MAY IMPACT THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF THE WATCH\r\nAREA WELL BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 18.2N 108.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 19.8N 108.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 23.1N 107.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 24.9N 107.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-06-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR TYPO\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 30 KT BASED ON AN EXCELLENT 1643 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT\r\nSHOWED A PATCH OF WIND RETRIEVALS NEAR 30 KT SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THIS INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 360/06. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nDISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK. THE HWRF AND DEEP-LAYER\r\nBAM BOTH TAKE THE VORTEX UNREALISTICALLY FAR TO THE NORTH AFTER\r\nLANDFALL. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...CANADIAN AND NOGAPS\r\nEITHER SHOW THE CYCLONE MAKING A SHARP SOUTHEASTWARD TURN BEFORE\r\nREACHING THE COAST OR LOSE THE VORTEX ENTIRELY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nTHE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVING INLAND BY 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE FORWARD SPEED IS DECREASED\r\nAT 36 AND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS WELL. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...BUT\r\nREMAINING LESS THAN 20 KT. WHILE THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM SHOW LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM GETTING CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n30 HOURS. GIVEN THAT IT WOULD TAKE ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST. THE INTENSITY\r\nPROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM BEING A\r\nTROPICAL STORM AT 24 HOURS AND 36 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 18.3N 108.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 108.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 107.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 22.6N 107.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 24.1N 106.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-06-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 18 2009\r\n \r\nCORRECTED WIND TO WINDOW IN THIRD PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARED TO BE ON THE VERGE OF REACHING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS THIS EVENING...BUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS THE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nBECOME LESS ORGANIZED.  AS A RESULT...THE DVORAK T NUMBERS CAME\r\nFROM IN TAFB AND SAB LOWER AT 1.5...THOUGH THE CI NUMBERS REMAINED\r\nAT 2.0.  THUS CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA WELL-PLACED AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AT 2026Z ALLOWED FOR A MODERATELY\r\nCONFIDENT INITIAL POSITION AND ESTIMATED 20 DEGREE/7 KT INITIAL\r\nMOTION.  THIS NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY A VERY\r\nDEEP TROUGH WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND A MEDIUM TO DEEP VORTEX.  BECAUSE OF THE GFS'\r\nERRONEOUSLY WEAK DEPICTION OF THE VORTEX AT THE INITIAL TIME...THE\r\nVERY QUICK NORTHWARD TRACK BY THE GFS AND THE HRWF APPEAR TO BE\r\nUNREALISTIC.  ADDITIONALLY...THE EGRI TRACKER LOST THE VORTEX FOR\r\nSOME REASON...SO THE SLOW NORTHWARD TRACKING UKMI WAS UTILIZED\r\nINSTEAD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS THUS A BLEND OF THE\r\nUKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS...AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO\r\nIS FOR THE CYCLONE TO STALL JUST OFF OF THE MEXICO COAST IN ABOUT\r\nTWO DAYS IF IT SHEARS APART AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY STEERED BY WEAK LOW\r\nLEVEL FLOW.  BECAUSE OF THE FARTHER EAST FORECAST TRACK...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAS MARIAS AND THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT A 12 TO 18 HOUR WINDOW TO INTENSIFY INTO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  THOUGH THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN\r\nMEXICO...THE MODERATE SHEAR AND STABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM...AS DOES THIS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 18.9N 107.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 20.2N 107.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 21.4N 107.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 22.5N 106.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 23.7N 106.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-06-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBECOMING SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. STRONG SOUTHERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE DEPRESSION AND\r\nTHE CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL ARE DIMINISHING. IN FACT...NONE 0600 UTC GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE OCEAN IS WARM...AND THE SHEAR\r\nIS STILL LOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND WATCHES AND WARNINGS\r\nFOR MEXICO ARE KEPT IN PLACE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/10. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS PATTERN FAVORS A CONTINUED\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WEAKENS FASTER THAN INDICATED AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS MEANDERING BETWEEN ISLAS MARIAS AND MAINLAND MEXICO\r\nWHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES RACING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS IS\r\nTHE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY SOME GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 19.7N 107.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 22.0N 106.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-06-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE NONE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM\r\nWATER AND THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SMALL\r\nINCREASE IN INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL\r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DOES NOT\r\nBRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nWHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME...\r\nONE COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/09. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nEMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nLOCATED OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOWS A NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK BEFORE DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS\r\nOVER MAINLAND MEXICO. IF THE DEPRESSION WEAKENS FASTER THAN\r\nINDICATED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD BE LEFT BEHIND TO MEANDER\r\nBETWEEN LAS ISLAS MARIAS AND MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. IN ADDITION...\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 21.0N 107.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 22.0N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 23.2N 106.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 24.2N 106.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER BENEATH THE EXPANSIVE CIRRUS\r\nCANOPY. IN FACT...THE CIRCULATION MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH.\r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS PUSHED THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNORTHEAST INTO WESTERN MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAIN AND SUSTAINED WINDS\r\nOF 30 KT WERE RECENTLY OBSERVED AT MAZATLAN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 015/12. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTAKES THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD THROUGH 12 HOURS AND SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE\r\nSOONER IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nNO LONGER PRESENT.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST...BUT WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. THE\r\nMAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS\r\nMOISTURE MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 22.3N 106.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.6N 106.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-06-20 00:00:00","Key":"EP012009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012009\r\n500 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE REMAINING TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO STREAM\r\nNORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO ENHANCE RAINFALL IN THESE\r\nAREAS...PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-06-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009\r\n\r\nSPIRAL BANDING HAS INCREASED DURING THE DAY AROUND THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS\r\nTO HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.0 AND\r\n2.5...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\nTHIS INTENSITY IS CORROBORATED BY A COUPLE OF RECENT SHIP REPORTS\r\nIN THE AREA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nPROJECTS THAT EASTERLY WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HWRF MODEL IS MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL IN STRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE. CURIOUSLY...\r\nTHIS IS THE REVERSE OF WHAT WAS INDICATED BY THE MODEL RUNS FROM 12\r\nHOURS EARLIER. DUE TO THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND DOES NOT BRING THE CYCLONE\r\nTO HURRICANE STATUS. WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 ONCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED THIS SYSTEM PARTICULARLY\r\nWELL...AND THIS IS LIKELY AFFECTING THEIR RESPECTIVE FORECAST\r\nTRACKS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF MOVE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD TOWARDS\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST...BUT THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD.\r\nTHE GFDL SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48\r\nHOURS...BUT THIS ALSO DOES NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THE SYSTEM'S\r\nCURRENT MOTION. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK RELIES ON\r\nEXTRAPOLATION AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO...THEN\r\nCOMES MORE IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND\r\nUKMET. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD OVER MEXICO AND STEER THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE AWAY FROM LAND.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THE REGION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO THE\r\nHIGHER-THAN-AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 14.7N 101.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.8N 102.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.2N 102.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.8N 103.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.9N 104.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 107.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-06-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...WITH BANDING\r\nFEATURES INCREASING AND A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nCENTER IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGHER ESTIMATE GIVEN THE\r\nIMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MARKS\r\nTHE LATEST FORMATION OF THE FIRST NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC BASIN SINCE 1971.\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES INDICATE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/05...WHICH IS TO THE\r\nLEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE MOST RECENT GFDL AND HWRF RUNS\r\nIMMEDIATELY TAKE ANDRES ON A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nTHESE TWO SOLUTIONS ARE WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR FROM MODEL FIELDS WHAT IS CAUSING\r\nTHIS MOTION. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT REMAINS LEFT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GUIDE ANDRES ON A MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST. ULTIMATELY...AS\r\nANDRES WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 48-72 HOURS...WITH A FAIRLY RAPID DROP OFF IN OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT\r\nNORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANDRES\r\nREACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ANDRES\r\nPEAKING IN INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A STEADY DECREASE\r\nIN STRENGTH BEYOND 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII OF ANDRES...THE GOVERNMENT\r\nOF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 14.8N 101.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.1N 102.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N 103.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.6N 103.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 17.8N 104.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 21.5N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 21.5N 117.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-06-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...WITH\r\nSOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO WHICH\r\nSHOWED AT LEAST ONE BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR IN THE 40 TO 45 KT\r\nRANGE.  ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER FOR AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL PROJECTS 20 TO 25\r\nKT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS\r\nOUTPUT SHOWS THAT THIS DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR VECTOR IS\r\nLESS UNFAVORABLE THAN SHEAR FROM SOME OTHER DIRECTIONS.  GIVEN THIS\r\nAND OTHER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS ABUNDANT LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nVORTICITY...BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM PREDICT THAT ANDRES WILL BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. \r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASINGLY LESS CONDUCIVE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/3 AS THE CENTER IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO TRACK USING NIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO PRESENT A CHALLENGE.  MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOW ANDRES MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST\r\nOF MEXICO.  THIS MOTION WOULD APPARENTLY BE THE RESULT OF ANDRES\r\nROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE\r\nWITHIN WHICH IT IS EMBEDDED.  HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS\r\nALSO SHOW PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER\r\nMEXICO...WHICH WOULD TEND TO DRIVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK...OR AT LEAST PARALLEL TO THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT\r\nSTILL LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN 4 TO 5 DAYS IT\r\nIS LIKELY THAT ANDRES WILL BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM BEING STEERED\r\nMAINLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK STILL DOES NOT EXPLICITLY\r\nINDICATE LANDFALL...IT IS NONETHELESS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST SO\r\nTHAT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 15.0N 102.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.6N 102.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.6N 104.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 19.0N 105.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N 108.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 21.5N 117.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-06-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 22 2009\r\n \r\nA TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 1035 UTC SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF ANDRES\r\nWAS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION. OVERALL...ANDRES\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH VERY DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW AND CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE\r\nWITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/04...USING THE TRMM AND\r\nQUIKSCAT MICROWAVE FIXES FROM OVERNIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT UPPER TROUGH OVER MEXICO IS JUST NORTH OF ANDRES AND\r\nTHIS FEATURE MAY HAVE HELPED STEER THE SYSTEM MORE NORTHWARD THAN\r\nEXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH WEAKENING\r\nAND MOVING NORTHWARD WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER MEXICO. THE\r\nEXACT TIMING OF THESE EVENTS IS CRITICAL TO WHETHER ANDRES WILL\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO OR MOVE ONSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND NOW SHOWS THE CENTER OF ANDRES MOVING VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TRICKY WITH THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST EDGING CLOSER TO LAND. WHILE ANDRES REMAINS UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. IN A DAY OR SO...THE PROXIMITY OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO LAND MAY INHIBIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...ANDRES WILL BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF COOLER\r\nSSTS SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MORE STABLE AIR...CAUSING MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW\r\nAS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE\r\nINCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST IS SHOWN AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CENTER MOVES ANY FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...ANDRES\r\nCOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT EXPLICITLY\r\nINDICATE LANDFALL...IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST THAT A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 16.0N 102.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 19.0N 104.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 22.0N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-06-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ANDRES\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE 1800 UTC DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.\r\n \r\nANDRES HAS BEEN MOVING UNSTEADILY OVER THE LAST 12 TO 18 HOURS...\r\nALTERNATING BETWEEN A MORE NORTHERLY AND WESTERLY HEADING. THE\r\n12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/04. THE UNSTEADY MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF ANDRES AND AN UPPER-TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS WILL FORCE ANDRES TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST...BUT NOT BEFORE IT TRACKS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST\r\nOF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND\r\n72 HOURS...THIS PACKAGE IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES NEARLY 20 KT OF SHEAR...IT DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO BE HAVING ANY ADVERSE IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE. ANDRES WILL\r\nREMAIN OVER WARM SSTS THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE A LITTLE FASTER NOW DUE TO THE STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION SEEN TODAY. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR...RESULTING\r\nIN SLOW WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD. IF ANDRES MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nINTERACTS WITH LAND...IT COULD WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN THIS\r\nPACKAGE REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION\r\nOF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 16.2N 102.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.1N 103.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.4N 104.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 19.6N 105.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 20.6N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N 116.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-06-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 22 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ANDRES\r\nCONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DEVELOP...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED \r\nWITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  EARLIER TRMM AND AMSU-B PASSES\r\nALSO INDICATE WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE POSSIBLE\r\nFORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  0000 UTC T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE BOTH 3.5 AND ARE USED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7. WATER VAPOR IMAGES\r\nAND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS SHOW A LARGE AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST. \r\nANDRES' CURRENT NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...FORECAST REASONABLY WELL BY\r\nSEVERAL TRACK MODELS...APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS ...WHICH SHOULD STEER ANDRES MORE TOWARD THE WEST...BUT NOT\r\nBEFORE IT NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW NEARLY 20 KT OF NORTHEAST TO EAST\r\nSHEAR OVER ANDRES AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT UPWARD\r\nINTENSITY TREND AND THE WARM SSTS ALONG ITS TRACK...A CONTINUED BUT\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS IS ANTICIPATED. \r\nANDRES IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT\r\nSHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS AND BEGIN INGESTING STABLE AIR IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS...RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DECREASE IN STRENGTH.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT...IF ANDRES MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...IT COULD INTERACT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH LAND AND\r\nWEAKEN FASTER.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 16.8N 103.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N 104.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.2N 105.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 108.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-06-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES HAS ONLY BECOME SLIGHTLY\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHERE IS A PERSISTENT...VERY COLD-TOPPED...CDO BUT THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL-DEFINED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY.  SPLITTING THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELDS 60 KT AND THIS\r\nIS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT NOT OCCUR\r\nIF ANDRES INTERACTS MORE WITH THE MEXICAN LANDMASS THAN EXPECTED.\r\nBY 36 HOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BEGIN CROSSING A\r\nSIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SST AND APPROACHING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nTHAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT IF THAT MODEL IS CORRECT THEN ANDRES\r\nWILL NOT LAST AS LONG AS INDICATED BELOW.\r\n \r\nBASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES... THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE...320/7...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS\r\nARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SINCE\r\nANDRES IS SO CLOSE TO THE COAST ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS COULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MOVING\r\nONSHORE.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION OF ANDRES WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  THIS WOULD ONLY SEEM\r\nPOSSIBLE IF THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND.  IN 3\r\nTO 5 DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY WINDS DOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...ANDRES OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED\r\nMAINLY WESTWARD BY THE  LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 17.4N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.6N 104.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.9N 105.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 107.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 21.5N 109.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-06-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009\r\n\r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ANDRES HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0 AND 3.5 RESPECTIVELY. A VERY\r\nRECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS A BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT WIND VECTOR AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE\r\nANDRES. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT\r\nOF THE CENTER LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nANDRES CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE.  IN THE SHORT RANGE...SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS TAKE THE CENTER INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEEPS THE CENTER\r\nOFFSHORE...HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ANDRES\r\nCOULD MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION.  IN\r\nTHE LONGER RANGE...THE HWRF HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY EASTWARD AND\r\nSHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS SHIFT HAS\r\nCAUSED THE CONSENSUS TO ALSO MOVE EASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE 2-5 DAY TIME\r\nFRAME...BUT IS STILL SOUTHWEST OF THE CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY PROBLEMATIC SINCE THERE ARE LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES REGARDING LAND INTERACTION.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS LITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGHTENING...HOWEVER THE NHC\r\nFORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ANDRES TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN\r\n12 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...ANDRES IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 18.0N 104.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 19.4N 105.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 20.8N 107.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.8N 108.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 22.5N 110.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 23.3N 113.2W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 23.5N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-06-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE SFMR ON THE\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 63 KT AND 67 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN\r\nSOMEWHAT LESS...TWO DROPSONDES RELEASED EAST OF THE CENTER ALSO\r\nMEASURED ROUGHLY 65 KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH SUPPORT THE SFMR\r\nMEASUREMENTS.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS ANDRES IS BEING UPGRADED\r\nTO A HURRICANE AND IT WAS POSSIBLY EVEN A LITTLE STRONGER THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANDRES WILL NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN ANY MORE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW ENOUGH LAND INTERACTION THAT THEY DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN\r\n12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CENTER\r\nJUST OFF THE COAST AND ASSUMES THAT ANDRES WILL TURN MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE UPDATED\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 12-24 HOURS...THEN\r\nFOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND BAMM...AND BAMS THEREAFTER.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 18.6N 105.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 19.9N 106.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.9N 107.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 21.7N 109.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.4N 110.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 23.2N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 23.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-06-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 23 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...THOUGH THE CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER ASYMMETRIC DUE\r\nTO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  IN SPITE OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBURST...ANDRES HAS A RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE WITH POORLY-\r\nDEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  FINAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED\r\nOVER THE PAST 6-12 HR...AND ON THIS BASIS ANDRES IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\n60 KT TROPICAL STORM.  THE EARLIER DISPARITY BETWEEN SATELLITE AND\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA SUGGESTS THAT GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY\r\nIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...MOSTLY A RESULT OF A PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 20\r\nTO 25 KT AND A GRADUAL DECLINE IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A STEADIER AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS PROJECTED ONCE\r\nANDRES REACHES EVEN COOLER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSELY IN\r\nLINE WITH BOTH SHIPS AND ICON.\r\n \r\nANDRES HAS RECENTLY TRACKED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 305/9. SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE\r\nNEARBY MEXICAN LANDMASS...RESULTING IN AN ABRUPT DISSIPATION.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES MID-LEVEL RIDGING REASSERTING\r\nITSELF NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS SOON AS 12 HOURS FROM NOW...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE\r\nCENTER MOVES AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE MORE LEFTWARD\r\nINITIAL TRACK AND THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE ARE LIKELY INDICATIONS\r\nTHAT ANDRES SHOULD AVOID LANDFALL IN SOUTHWEST MEXICO BUT SHOULD BE\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO CAUSE POSSIBLE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. BY 48\r\nHOURS...A WEAKER ANDRES SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE STEERED MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST AS A RESULT OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGING FORECAST SOUTHWEST\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 19.1N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 20.0N 107.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 21.7N 109.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.2N 111.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-06-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE STORM...AS A RAGGED-LOOKING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING\r\nSHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT ANDRES IS SUCCUMBING TO THE PERSISTENT EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING IT OVER THE PAST DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE A\r\nGENEROUS ESTIMATE.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OCEANIC AND\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OF ANDRES SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36 HOURS OR LESS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 305/8 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER\r\nPOSITION IS RATHER IMPRECISE AT THE MOMENT.  THE PRIMARY STEERING\r\nMECHANISM AT THIS TIME IS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE MOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nDOMINATED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...WHICH ARE SOMEWHAT\r\nWEAKER THEN THE WINDS AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE...AND IS NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 19.5N 106.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.3N 107.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 21.8N 110.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N 112.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Andres","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-06-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ANDRES HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AN 0856 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS\r\nWAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...HOWEVER A TRMM PASS ABOUT\r\nAN HOUR AND A HALF LATER SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS BECOMING\r\nELONGATED AT THAT TIME.  A MORE RECENT 1250 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS HAS\r\nPROVIDED MORE EVIDENCE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED AND \r\nLESS-DEFINED.  THE HIGHEST BELIEVABLE WIND VECTOR FROM THE\r\nSCATTEROMETER WAS AROUND 30 KT...WHICH IS USED AS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nANDRES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. SINCE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nBECOMING LESS DEFINED...DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND\r\nANDRES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THAT OCCURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 20.3N 107.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 21.0N 108.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Andres","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-06-24 18:00:00","Key":"EP022009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDRES SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022009\r\n1100 AM PDT WED JUN 24 2009\r\n \r\nANDRES HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT\r\n12 HOURS AND GIVEN ITS ENVIRONMENT THE CONVECTION IS NOT LIKELY TO\r\nRETURN.  ANDRES HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION...\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER CONTINUES TO\r\nBECOME ILL-DEFINED.  THE REMNANT LOW HAS TURNED NORTHWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY SO NO\r\n12 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1800Z 21.5N 107.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-07-06 12:30:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n530 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED\r\nA FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  RECENT DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE\r\nBOTH 2.5...AND A 0921 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF AN\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE AMSR-E\r\nIMAGE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.\r\n\r\nATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  HOWEVER... BLANCA SHOULD\r\nREACH SUB-26C IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/9.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA ON A\r\nMOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH\r\nSOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1230Z 17.1N 111.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N 113.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.3N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.9N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.4N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 06 2009\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BLANCA IS \r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNINGS OF A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. IN ADDITION...A LONG BANDING FEATURE EXTENDS WELL SOUTH\r\nAND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE BOTH 2.5 AND CONFIRM THE RECENT\r\nINCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.  BASED UPON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/09...WITH RECENT\r\nFIXES SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST 12-24\r\nHOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT A BROAD BUT FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nEAST PACIFIC THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER BLANCA\r\nON A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nWITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SUBTLE TURN TO THE WEST\r\nEXPECTED ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nBLANCA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 28C WATER IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE NEAR-TERM. IN\r\nFACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES SOME\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR A MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REACH SUB-26C WATERS WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THE OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT WILL STEADILY DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE\r\nSTORM. EASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITHIN\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS.  THESE TWO FACTORS SUGGEST THAT A HALT IN\r\nDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AFTER 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 17.3N 112.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.8N 113.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.5N 118.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.1N 121.2W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 06 2009\r\n \r\nBLANCA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY SINCE THIS MORNING.\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES DURING THE DAY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY NORTH OF\r\nDVORAK POSITION ESTIMATES...INDICATING THAT THE VORTEX MAY NOT BE\r\nVERTICALLY ALIGNED. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE\r\nRECENTLY WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE DISTRIBUTION HAS SHRUNK...\r\nPOSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. IN SPITE OF\r\nTHE MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY\r\nWELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH\r\nTHE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 AND 3.0...RESPECTIVELY...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS NOW LESS DOUBT WITH REGARD TO THE INITIAL MOTION...WITH\r\nRECENT FIXES INDICATING 305/09. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BLANCA ON THE\r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA . THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AND STEER BLANCA ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nA FURTHER BENDING OF THE TRACK TO THE WEST ONCE BLANCA BEGINS TO\r\nWEAKEN.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE ORGANIZATION OF BLANCA HAS NOT IMPROVED\r\nFURTHER...THE STORM IS STILL MOVING OVER 27-28C WATER IN A\r\nRELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nREACH SUB-26C WATER JUST AFTER 12 HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED DECREASE\r\nIN SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE STORM.  THIS...ALONG WITH\r\nTHE FACT THAT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHEREAFTER...WITH THE RAPID DROP-OFF IN SSTS...BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN\r\nWEAKENING AND BECOME A REMNANT FLOW BETWEEN 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 18.0N 112.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 18.7N 114.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 19.4N 115.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.9N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 20.2N 118.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 121.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 06 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCORE OF BLANCA HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE\r\nORGANIZED WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER-DEFINED CURVED BANDING FEATURES. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE SYSTEM IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AND CIRRUS MOTIONS SHOW FAIRLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  BLANCA\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT ITS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CLOSING QUICKLY AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nTRAVERSE SSTS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES C IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THUS THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING BY 24 HOURS...\r\nAND THE SYSTEM BEING REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE\r\nCOOLER WATERS...AND A POSSIBLY MORE STABLE THAN EXPECTED AIR\r\nMASS...BLANCA'S DEMISE COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/9.  THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT.  A\r\nWEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ONCE BLANCA\r\nBECOMES A VERY WEAK CYCLONE...A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 18.2N 113.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.8N 115.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N 116.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 20.0N 118.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 20.4N 119.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 20.8N 122.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 21.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009\r\n\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF BLANCA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AS DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER AND IN A BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT\r\n0600 UTC. WHILE BLANCA'S CIRCULATION REMAINS ROBUST...THE\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION HAS LIKELY PASSED. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW LOCATED OVER SSTS LESS\r\nTHAN 27C...AND IS HEADED FOR SSTS BELOW 25C IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. THE COMBINATION OF COOL WATERS...A MORE STABLE LOWER\r\nTROPOSPHERE AND MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE BLANCA TO\r\nWEAKEN STEADILY AFTER 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON\r\nCONSENSUS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nBLANCA DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/08 BASED ON RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. \r\nBLANCA WILL BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HOURS AS BOTH\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS\r\nLESS OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 18.5N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 115.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.7N 117.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 20.3N 118.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 20.7N 120.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 21.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nBLANCA REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED...DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY\r\nBEEN DIMINISHING.  IN FACT...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION COMPRISES A BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH\r\nPULSATING DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER RATHER SPARSE.\r\nTHE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO SLOWLY\r\nDECREASE...WITH THE LATEST ESTIMATES OF 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB... RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 40 KT THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS ENTERED SUB-26C SSTS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nSSTS TO DECREASE TO AS LOW AS 23-24C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS. MOREOVER...BLANCA SHOULD ENCOUNTER AND INGEST MORE\r\nSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND WILL BE SUBJECT TO MODEST EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE ABOVE CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE CURRENT WEAKENING\r\nTREND WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY ACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BLANCA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW SOONER THAN FORECAST...GIVEN THE INCREASING NEGATIVE FACTORS.\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AND ESTIMATED MOTION OF 295/09.  THE\r\nTRACK PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.  A BROAD BUT FLAT MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EAST\r\nPACIFIC WILL STEER BLANCA ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nCOURSE...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HOURS AS\r\nBOTH THE CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE WEAKEN.  THEREAFTER...MODELS HAVE\r\nTRENDED NORTH FROM YESTERDAY'S RUNS...AS BLANCA NEARS THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS A RESULT...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN GRADUALLY NUDGED FARTHER NORTHWEST THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL ADVISORIES PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM CLARION ISLAND...TIMELY PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN\r\nNAVY...HELPED TO MONITOR TROPICAL STORM BLANCA.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 19.0N 115.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 20.2N 118.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 20.8N 120.2W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 21.3N 121.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 22.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\n\r\nBLANCA IS NEARING THE 24C SST ISOTHERM AS IT MOVES ACROSS A\r\nSTRONG GRADIENT OF SST. MOREOVER...THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY\r\nBEGUN TO INGEST INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR AND\r\nENCOUNTER A MODEST AMOUNT OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  THESE FACTORS FAVOR A\r\nCONTINUED STEADY DECLINE IN INTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN CLOSE ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  BLANCA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 36\r\nHOURS...BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS THIS EVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nRECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10...A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED MOTION.  THE TRACK\r\nREASONING WITH REGARD TO BLANCA HAS NOT CHANGED.  THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAKENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED PRIOR TO\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 19.7N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 20.3N 117.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 21.8N 120.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 22.5N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2009\r\n\r\nA RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM\r\nFOR NOW.  THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB.  IT WAS A BIT SURPRISING TO SEE THE\r\nRECENT REJUVENATION OF CONVECTION GIVEN THAT THE SSTS ARE LIKELY\r\nLOWER THAN 24 DEG C.  HOWEVER SINCE BLANCA WILL BE MOVING OVER EVEN\r\nCOOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON AND\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...ICON.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A CURRENT MOTION OF\r\nABOUT 300/10...SO THE ANTICIPATED DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED HAS NOT\r\nYET TAKEN PLACE.  NONETHELESS...THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLANCA SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL\r\nDECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND A MORE WESTWARD MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES A WEAK LOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS MORE OR LESS THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 20.3N 117.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 21.1N 119.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 21.7N 120.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 22.2N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 08 2009\r\n \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AT 0218 UTC SHOWED THAT BLANCA WAS STILL A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS\r\nDISSIPATED...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THIS...BLANCA IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE SYSTEM IS NOW OVER 22-23C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND IF THERE IS NO CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP DURING THE\r\nNORMAL DIURNAL MAXIMUM IT COULD BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY.  THE REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL THEY DISSIPATE\r\nIN ABOUT 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12.  BLANCA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...\r\nWITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n19N129W.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN\r\nAS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OFF THE WESTERN COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES...AND IF BLANCA WERE OVER WARM WATER IT WOULD\r\nLIKELY TRY TO TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH.  SINCE THAT\r\nIS NOT THE CASE...A CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH\r\nA DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATES. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 20.8N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 21.4N 120.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 22.1N 121.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 22.6N 122.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 23.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 08 2009\r\n \r\nAN 0532 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS COINCIDENT WITH\r\nTHE TIME WHEN ALL DEEP CONVECTION BEGAN TO COLLAPSE.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED...BLANCA IS NOW A TIGHT SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER 22-23C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BASED ON\r\nTHE EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO HAS BEEN STEERING BLANCA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHWEST HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW.  HOWEVER...THE RECENT\r\nDISSIPATION OF ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE BLANCA A SHALLOW SYSTEM\r\nWHOSE MOTION IS BEING CONTROLLED BY A WEAKER...LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nGIVEN THE RECENT MORE WESTWARD MOTION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nNUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS ON LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 20.8N 120.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 21.5N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009\r\n \r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPING\r\nWITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF BLANCA...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM STILL LACKS\r\nSUFFICIENT CONVECTION TO WARRANT A DATA T-NUMBER USING THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE.  WE WILL CONTINUE ADVISORIES ON THIS MARGINAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  A 1326 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS STILL INDICATED 25\r\nTO 30 KT WINDS PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CENTER.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN SINCE THEN AND THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT.  UNLESS THERE IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION...BLANCA WILL\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...BLANCA\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK BY WEAK\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 21.2N 121.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 21.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 22.0N 123.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP032009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032009\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 08 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONE'S\r\nCIRCULATION...THE SYSTEM LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...BLANCA IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED. \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL...INTERMITTENT...BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...THE LOW SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN VERY SLOWLY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 290/9.  BLANCA'S REMNANT LOW SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BLANCA.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 21.5N 121.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 21.9N 122.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 22.3N 124.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 22.6N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 22.8N 126.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED\r\nWELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND IS BECOMING DETACHED FROM THE INTERTROPICAL\r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5 AND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...ALTHOUGH DATA-T\r\nNUMBERS AT THE TIME WERE 2.0 AND 2.5.  RECENTLY...A CLUSTER OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND A\r\nPROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED WITHIN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE STRUCTURE OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE CONVECTION\r\nHAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE HIGHER END OF THE\r\nESTIMATES...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS A\r\n25-KT DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN INITIAL MOTION OF 275/7.  THE SUITE\r\nOF GLOBAL MODELS SHOWS FAIRLY TIGHT CLUSTERING THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\n5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL NOT\r\nMAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD DISPLACEMENT.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY\r\nAPPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DUE TO THE REMNANTS\r\nOF BLANCA AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE OREGON COAST...BUT THE\r\nMODELS QUICKLY RE-BUILD THE RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAS THE RIDGE BUILDS...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND\r\nMOVE AT A CONSISTENT 11 OR 12 KNOTS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIES GENERALLY JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND SHADES CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.\r\n \r\nOCEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION ARE\r\nAROUND 28-29C AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS MUCH TO LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS WITH QUICKER\r\nINTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER.  THE GFDL PRODUCES THE MOST\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR 90 KT WITHIN 5 DAYS\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS LEVEL OFF THE INTENSITY AROUND 70\r\nKT FROM 84-120 HOURS.  SINCE IT IS NOT APPARENT WHAT WOULD LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 10.0N 111.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 10.2N 112.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 10.4N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 10.6N 117.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 11.0N 119.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 12.0N 124.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 13.0N 129.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 13.5N 134.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AND DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH\r\nTWO CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HOOKING BANDS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS\r\nTO BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION\r\nWHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THIS\r\nSUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS AT LOW\r\nLATITUDES...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BEYOND 3 DAYS. HOWEVER..GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS COULD HAPPEN\r\nEARLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...OR 275 DEGREES\r\nAT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD ALLOW\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...BUT MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 10.4N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 10.5N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 10.7N 116.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 10.8N 118.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 11.3N 121.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 12.0N 126.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N 131.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 13.5N 136.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009\r\n \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z WERE T2.5\r\nAND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY.  THE CYCLONE HAS AN IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION FOR THIS TIME OF DAY...AND ENOUGH BANDING GENERALLY\r\nTO GIVE IT THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...AGAIN FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE.  A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF BLANCA IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF CARLOS...BUT THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND\r\nWEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...CARLOS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE AND REMAIN ON A TRACK JUST NORTH\r\nOF WEST FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH MODEST DIFFERENCES\r\nPRIMARILY IN THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nECMWF...WHICH IS THE SLOWEST OF THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS.   \r\n\r\nCARLOS IS WELL ORGANIZED AND RELATIVELY SMALL...OVER VERY WARM\r\nWATERS AND IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  CONSEQUENTLY IT IS A DECENT\r\nCANDIDATE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T OCCUR\r\nOFTEN IN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORMS.  THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE ESTIMATES\r\nA 35% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE...FOLLOWING THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE TIGHTLY PACKED DSHP/LGEM/HWFI/GHMI ENSEMBLE.  TOWARD THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS...WHICH MIGHT ACT TO SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 10.3N 113.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 10.4N 115.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 10.8N 117.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 11.1N 120.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 11.4N 122.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 12.0N 127.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 12.5N 131.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 13.0N 136.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE\r\nTHIS EVENING.  BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE MAY BE\r\nDEVELOPING.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISH...BUT IT IS\r\nA LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BUILD A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CARLOS OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS\r\nWHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH \r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nCARLOS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS EXPECTED.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW BRINGS CARLOS TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS...WHICH FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS A MORE MODEST RATE OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD HALT FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 10.5N 115.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 10.8N 116.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 11.1N 119.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 11.4N 121.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 11.6N 123.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 12.0N 128.2W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 13.0N 137.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009\r\n \r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF CARLOS IS EMBEDDED BENEATH A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND A NEW CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER IS TAKING SHAPE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 3.5 AND 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nLATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS 3.9.  GIVEN THE RANGE OF\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO A CONSENSUS OF 55\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nCARLOS IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AND IS MOVING AT 275/11.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nBE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AS\r\nTHE RIDGE IMPEDES A NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION. HOWEVER...THE\r\nMODELS HAVE INCREASED THE FORWARD MOTION A BIT...AND THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT\r\nSTILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SPECIFICALLY THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.\r\n \r\nTHE KEY PROBLEM FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SHORT-TERM RATE OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX NOW INDICATES A 63%\r\nCHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES CARLOS A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nAND IS SUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  WITH THE RI\r\nINDEX SO HIGH...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOS COULD\r\nINTENSIFY QUICKER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN IS SHOWN IN THE\r\nFORECAST.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...AND OCEAN\r\nTEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM THROUGH 96 HOURS TO\r\nALLOW FURTHER STRENGTHENING BEYOND 24 HOURS.  BY DAY 5...THERE ARE\r\nSOME INDICATIONS THAT CARLOS COULD COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN IT AND HAWAII...SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT THAT TIME.  THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND MOST\r\nACTUALLY SHOW MORE WEAKENING THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 10.5N 116.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 10.6N 118.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 10.9N 120.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 11.1N 122.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 11.4N 125.4W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 12.0N 130.4W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 12.5N 135.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 13.5N 140.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009\r\n \r\nTHE BANDING FEATURES PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED ARE CURRENTLY LESS DISTINCT\r\nBUT THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. DURING THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1200\r\nUTC...THE PATTERN WAS A LITTLE RAGGED AND THE T-NUMBER CAME DOWN TO\r\n3.0.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF A 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. IN\r\nFACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE DAY...JUST RECEIVED...SHOWS\r\nTHAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST PATH OF CARLOS UNTIL IT INCREASES AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD. BY THEN...THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER.\r\nTHEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND CARLOS SHOULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE LATER TODAY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN TWO OR THREE\r\nDAYS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH GFDL\r\nAND HWRF KEEP CARLOS AS A 80 TO 90 KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nCARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CARLOS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 10 TO 12\r\nKNOTS THROUGH FIVE DAYS. BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG\r\nGLOBAL MODELS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BEYOND 3 DAYS. AN\r\nOVERALL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS STILL THE MOST FAVORITE MODEL SOLUTION.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 10.4N 116.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009\r\n \r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER TODAY GAVE US THE INDICATION THAT\r\nAN EYEWALL WAS FORMING AND FINALLY A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME\r\nAPPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGES. THIS EYE IS BEING WRAPPED BY TWO\r\nCOIL-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE INTERMITTENTLY.\r\nHOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGES IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE\r\nAT THIS TIME. BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ADT NUMBER IS 4.0. SINCE\r\nTHEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nORGANIZATION AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...CARLOS IS BEING UPGRADED TO\r\nA 70-KNOT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM IN THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE\r\nPATH OF CARLOS. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 3 DAYS CARLOS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING\r\nHIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A MID-OCEANIC\r\nTROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nCOULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH\r\nSHOWS WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nCARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WESTWARD PATH ABOUT 270 DEGREES\r\nAT 10 KNOTS TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nIS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS NOT EXCEPTED TO CHANGE MUCH.\r\nTHEREFORE...CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUN WITH MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING CARLOS\r\nON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS...PERHAPS\r\nVARYING IN FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT BY MUCH.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 10.5N 117.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN\r\nTHIS EVENING.  A SMALL EYE HAS BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS AND BRIEFLY BECAME QUITE DISTINCT JUST AFTER 0000 UTC. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS BECOME OBSCURED ONCE AGAIN.  THE\r\nLATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 WHICH\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT. \r\n\r\nCARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  CONSEQUENTLY...ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED.  THE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST\r\nAGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO CATEGORY THREE STATUS IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND THE RECENT\r\nCONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nLEAN TOWARD THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REACH SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER\r\nAND APPROACH AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\n\r\nCARLOS CONTINUES ON A WESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY PREDICTS A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON THE\r\nPREDICTED FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 10.5N 119.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 10.6N 120.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 10.8N 123.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 125.4W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 11.3N 127.7W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 12.0N 132.3W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 12.7N 137.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 142.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS MAY HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF\r\nARRESTED DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE\r\nINTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE HAS DISAPPEARED AND AN ASYMMETRY IS NOTED\r\nWITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nLEVELED OFF...WITH ESTIMATES OF 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 75 KT.\r\n\r\nCARLOS SHOULD ENCOUNTER WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 2 TO\r\n3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THAT CARLOS WILL BECOME\r\nA MAJOR HURRICANE AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC\r\nPARAMETERS.  IN ADDITION...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX IS\r\nNOT AS EMPHATIC AS IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY\r\nA LITTLE LESS BULLISH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND STILL BRINGS CARLOS\r\nTO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN 36 TO 48 HR.  THIS IS ALSO A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LATEST HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODEL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECASTS...WITH THE FORMER MODEL BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE.  THEREAFTER...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nFLOW ALOFT AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/11.  A DOMINANT MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP\r\nCARLOS ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH\r\nSOME SUBTLE INCREASE IN LATITUDE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE...HOWEVER...ON THE PREDICTED\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF CARLOS BEYOND 96 HR...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nNOTABLY FASTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND ALSO TO THE TO THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 10.5N 120.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 10.6N 121.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 10.8N 124.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 11.1N 126.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 11.4N 128.8W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 12.2N 133.4W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 13.0N 138.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 14.0N 142.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY OF HURRICANE CARLOS DISPLAYS A MORE RAGGED\r\nAPPEARANCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.5...BUT ADT AND AMSU SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE. BASED UPON THE CONTINUING DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD\r\nSIGNATURE SINCE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE MODERATELY UNCERTAIN. THE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF CARLOS HAS OBSCURED ITS CENTER OVERNIGHT\r\nAND THE MICROWAVE SENSORS ABOARD THE POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITES HAVE\r\nRATHER ADROITLY MANAGED TO HAVE MISSED SEEING THE HURRICANE.\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. THE DOMINANT STEERING\r\nFEATURE IS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOS. THE RIDGE\r\nIS PROJECTED TO EXTEND FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SHOULD KEEP CARLOS\r\nON A NEARLY DUE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL TO THE NORTH. THIS MODEL MAY BE RESPONDING MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BECAUSE\r\nOF ITS LARGER REPRESENTAION OF THE VORTEX. THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESS WEIGHT ON NOGAPS AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATER TIME\r\nPERIODS.\r\n\r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BROADER...LESS WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYEWALL THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THIS...CARLOS HAS A\r\nLARGE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES\r\nACROSS VERY WARM WATERS WITHIN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS\r\nHAVE BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND NONE NOW BRING CARLOS TO A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...THE SSTS COOL...AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES\r\nMORE STABLE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nCURIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nREACHING CARLOS BY DAY FIVE...IN CONTRAST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY THREE. AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES...THE\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BELOW THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 10.4N 121.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 10.5N 122.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 10.7N 125.1W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 10.9N 127.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 11.2N 129.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 134.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 138.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 142.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009\r\n \r\nCARLOS HAS CONTINUED IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS TO SHOW A\r\nDETERIORATION OF ITS CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  WHILE TAFB/SAB DVORAK\r\nAND ADT CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES SUGGEST AROUND 65-75 KT...THE DATA\r\nT NUMBERS AND MOST RECENT IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nDROPPED BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.  MOREOVER...THE EXTENT OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTRACTED WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST EXTENDING\r\nONLY ABOUT 200 NM IN DIAMETER.  THUS THE WIND RADII ARE CONTRACTED\r\nFROM THAT INDICATED EARLIER. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/9.  THE POSITION HAS MORE\r\nCERTAINTY THAN EARLIER TODAY DUE TO A FORTUITOUS SSMIS PASS AT\r\n1535Z.  CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTHEAST.  THE RELIABLE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS WHICH\r\nTAKE THE CYCLONE SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTHWARD.  THIS BEHAVIOR\r\nMAY BE DUE TO THE OVERLY LARGE-SIZED VORTEX IN THE NOGAPS MODEL. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE REMAINING TRACK MODELS ALONG\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION...WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIT STILL IS A BIT OF MYSTERY WHY THE CYCLONE WEAKENED AS MUCH AS IT\r\nHAS TODAY. THE GFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL RE-INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL TECHNIQUES ONLY BRING CARLOS BACK UP A FEW KNOTS. THERE\r\nDOES EXIST A TWO TO THREE DAY WINDOW FOR CARLOS TO RESTRENGTHEN AS\r\nIT TRAVERSES OVER WARM WATERS AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST UNSTABLE AIR. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND MORE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE...ICON.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 10.3N 121.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 10.4N 123.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 10.5N 126.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 10.7N 128.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 10.9N 130.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 12.5N 139.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 13.0N 144.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009\r\n \r\nTHE MYSTERIOUS WEAKENING TREND THAT BEGAN EARLY THIS MORNING HAS\r\nCONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND ONLY A SMALL AREA\r\nOF CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF CARLOS.  OBJECTIVE AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AND\r\nSUPPORT A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  DESPITE\r\nTHE RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY A VERY RECENT 0150 UTC\r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.\r\nPERHAPS THIS IS AN INDICATION THAT CARLOS IS TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE WEAKENING THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...\r\nTHE FORECAST PATH KEEPS CARLOS OVER 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER AND IN\r\nA LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGFDL AND GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY GUIDANCE THAT PREDICTS\r\nSIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING.  THE HWRF HAS BACKED-OFF ON ITS\r\nEARLIER FORECAST OF RE-INTENSIFICATION AND NOW CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE MAINTAIN CARLOS AS A 45 TO 55 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM THROUGHOUT THE 5 DAY PERIOD.  SINCE THE OVERALL CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO CALL FOR SOME MODEST RESTRENGTHENING...BUT A LITTLE \r\nLESS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER 72 HOURS...SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST A TRACK MORE TOWARD THE NORTH THAN THE REST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON\r\nA WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH THAT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 10.2N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 10.2N 124.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 10.4N 126.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 10.6N 129.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 10.9N 131.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 11.7N 135.3W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 12.5N 140.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 12.5N 145.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009\r\n \r\nCARLOS CONSISTS OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A FEW\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  ITS RECENT APPEARANCE REPRESENTS A\r\nDECREASE IN ORGANIZATION...AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5\r\nAND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...REFLECT A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45\r\nKT...WITHIN THE REALM OF AVAILABLE ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING OF CARLOS OBSERVED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS HAS INDEED\r\nBEEN PUZZLING...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE.  CARLOS HAS WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND IS\r\nIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ALL OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD FAVOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...YET THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED 30 KT SINCE THIS\r\nTIME YESTERDAY.  THIS IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF OUR LACK OF\r\nUNDERSTANDING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE.  NO MATTER THE\r\nINEXPLICABLE WEAKENING...THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS PREDICT THAT\r\nCARLOS WILL REACQUIRE HURRICANE STATUS...WHILE SHIPS INDICATES\r\nLITTLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...AND THE HWRF WEAKENS CARLOS TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND THE LESS BULLISH\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CALL FOR ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING EVEN THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN MODELS\r\nREMAIN NORTHERN OUTLIERS...AND ARE DISCOUNTED AS MOST DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF CARLOS THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  ESSENTIALLY...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...SINCE THE LATTER INCLUDES THE QUESTIONABLE NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDN SOLUTIONS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 10.2N 124.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 10.2N 125.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 10.4N 128.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 10.7N 130.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 11.1N 132.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 11.9N 136.4W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 12.5N 141.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 12.5N 145.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2009\r\n \r\nA 1045 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 260/12 OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE SAME PASS IS ALSO\r\nSHOWING THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING MAY BE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE\r\nORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.\r\n \r\nWHEREAS IT APPEARED THAT CARLOS WAS DETACHING FROM THE ITCZ A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AGO...SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW SUGGESTS THAT IT HAS BECOME\r\nRE-ATTACHED TO THE AXIS. THIS MIGHT BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEST TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE STILL SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS SHOULD GAIN SOME LATITUDE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT THE RECENT MOTION MAKES THIS\r\nSCENARIO UNCERTAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT THAT IT IS SHIFTED AS MUCH AS A DEGREE\r\nFARTHER SOUTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UPDATED INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nCARLOS' INVOLVEMENT WITH THE ITCZ COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST. IF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG\r\nTHE AXIS...RE-STRENGTHENING WOULD BE HIGHLY UNLIKELY. IN\r\nFACT...SOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF...KEEP CARLOS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND OPEN IT\r\nINTO A TROUGH VERY SOON. THE HWRF IS ALSO PESSIMISTIC AND\r\nESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS WHILE THE GFDL RE-STRENGTHENS THE SYSTEM TO A\r\nHURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT THAT IT BRINGS THE INTENSITY DOWN A\r\nLITTLE FASTER BY DAY 5 DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  WHILE THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES A 50% CHANCE THAT\r\nCARLOS WILL BE A DEPRESSION OR DISSIPATED BY DAY 5...I SUSPECT THE\r\nCHANCES ARE HIGHER THAN THAT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z  9.6N 125.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z  9.6N 127.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z  9.9N 129.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 10.2N 131.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 10.5N 133.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 11.0N 137.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 11.5N 142.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2009\r\n \r\nAN EYE-LIKE FEATURE APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AROUND 1700 UTC BUT\r\nHAS SINCE BEEN PARTIALLY COVERED BY A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. \r\nSUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 3.5 FROM TAFB AND\r\n4.0 FROM SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT IS HOVERING AROUND 3.3.  IN\r\nADDITION...AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF A 1433 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nINDICATED THAT THE INTENSITY OF CARLOS WAS AT LEAST 45-50 KT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT AS A CONSENSUS.  THE QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS ALSO INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTEND 30\r\nN MI FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nCARLOS CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AT 255/10.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ATTACHED TO A CONVERGENCE BAND...PART OF THE ITCZ...THAT\r\nEXTENDS ALMOST 1000 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  IT DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nTHAT CARLOS IS STRONG ENOUGH OR BIG ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO\r\nOVERCOME THIS FEATURE...AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT IT WILL\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND NOT SURVIVE.  WITH THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE PERSISTS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nKEEPS CARLOS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nCARLOS' SMALL SIZE HAS ALSO MADE IT...AND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO\r\nMAKE IT...SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHORT-TERM INTENSITY CHANGES THAT WE DO\r\nNOT HAVE SKILL IN FORECASTING.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HOLDS CARLOS AT 55 KT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS WITH\r\nTHE RECOGNITION THAT THE INTENSITY COULD OSCILLATE A LITTLE ABOVE\r\nAND BELOW THIS VALUE.  ULTIMATELY...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 72\r\nHOURS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS LARGER THAN NORMAL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z  9.4N 126.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z  9.5N 127.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z  9.7N 130.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 10.0N 132.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 10.4N 134.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 11.0N 138.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 11.5N 144.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 11.5N 151.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2009\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE SMALL SIZE OF CARLOS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW THE PRESENCE OF BANDS OF CONVECTION THAT WRAP\r\nAROUND THE CENTER.  THE BANDED EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT WAS SEEN \r\nIN VISIBLE IMAGERY EARLY TODAY HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A NEW BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...HOWEVER\r\nINDICATES THAT THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE REMAINS.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nAND ADT ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55\r\nKT. \r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS CEASED AND CARLOS\r\nIS NOW MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 9 KT.  THERE IS CERTAINLY MORE SPREAD\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE THIS EVENING.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN REMAIN ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF\r\nARE ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE.  THE NHC TRACK FOLLOWS THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERN SOLUTIONS WHICH IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST\r\nTHAT CARLOS WILL BE APPROACHING AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN 24-36 HOURS.  SINCE CARLOS IS SO SMALL...IT\r\nWILL LIKELY BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING DUE TO THE \r\nEXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z  9.7N 127.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z  9.7N 128.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z  9.9N 130.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 10.2N 132.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 10.5N 134.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 11.3N 138.8W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 11.5N 145.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 11.5N 152.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009\r\n \r\nCARLOS REMAINS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERIZED BY A\r\nCOMPACT BALL OF DEEP CONVECTION... BUT WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBVIOUS STRUCTURAL CHANGES\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...ARE ALSO LARGELY UNCHANGED. \r\nGIVEN CARLOS' QUASI-STEADY APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 55 KT.\r\n\r\nRECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING 270/8...A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RATHER\r\nINSISTENT ON CARLOS GAINING SOME LATITUDE...AND THE PRESENT CYCLE\r\nOF MODEL RUNS IS NO DIFFERENT.  HOWEVER...PRELIMINARY VERIFICATION\r\nOF PREVIOUS DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS REVEALS A\r\nPRONOUNCED NORTHERLY BIAS.  ON THIS BASIS...THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS A SIMILAR PATH AS THE PREVIOUS AND KEEPS CARLOS\r\nSOUTH OF THE GENERALLY MORE RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THIS IS\r\nALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BAM SUITE OF SOLUTIONS.  IN DEFERENCE TO\r\nTHE SLOWER INITIAL MOTION...HOWEVER...THIS NHC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nCARLOS IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FASTER LOW-LEVEL TRADE\r\nWIND FLOW RESULTING IN SOME ACCELERATION.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT CARLOS WILL BE ENTERING A REGION OF\r\nINCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nEXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT LOW LATITUDES\r\nCAN BE VERY SUSCEPTIBLE TO EVEN MODEST INCREASES IN VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...CARLOS MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE.  GIVEN THAT\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN INTENSITY PREDICTION...AND PERHAPS EVEN\r\nLESS IN THIS CASE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z  9.7N 127.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z  9.8N 128.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-07-14 10:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n300 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009\r\n \r\nRECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A SMALL\r\nEYE...AND THEREFORE CARLOS IS UPGRADED ONCE AGAIN TO A HURRICANE. \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO ADJUST THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  WE HAVE MODIFIED THE INTENSITY FORECAST BASED\r\nON THE REVISED INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE.  HOWEVER...AS NOTED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nFUTURE STRENGTH OF CARLOS.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1000Z  9.7N 127.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z  9.8N 128.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS SHOW THAT CARLOS\r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE...10 N MI WIDE OR LESS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1200 UTC...AND\r\nRECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE EXCEEDED 5.0 AS THE EYE GETS BETTER\r\nDEFINED.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n80 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/6...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS MOTION.  CARLOS IS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY\r\nAGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN HOW\r\nFAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET.  ON ONE SIDE ARE THE HWRF...\r\nGFDL...AND UKMET...WHICH CALL FOR A MORE WESTWARD MOTION CLOSER TO\r\n10-11N.  ON THE OTHER SIDE ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH CALL FOR\r\nCARLOS TO REACH 15-16N BY 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nCARLOS IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS\r\nNOT A LOT OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC. \r\nTHE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND TRENDS SUGGEST THAT CARLOS COULD BECOME A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CARLOS TO PEAK AT HIGHER THAN ABOUT 85\r\nKT.  THE FIRST PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR CARLOS\r\nTO REACH 85 KT IN 12 HR...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...CARLOS SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE GFS...ECWMF..AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS CALL FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO LIE ALONG 10-11N...WHICH WOULD\r\nLIKELY PRODUCE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER CARLOS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nCALL FOR THE AXIS TO BE FARTHER NORTH AND PRODUCE A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE ON THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND CALL FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR\r\nAFTER 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 10.0N 127.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 10.2N 128.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 10.5N 130.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 10.9N 131.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 11.2N 133.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 12.0N 138.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 12.0N 144.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 150.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FREE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE.\r\nENHANCE BD INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS WARMED\r\nCONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING WITH COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CORE EYEWALL CONVECTION.  BASED ON THIS\r\nRECENT CLOUD PATTERN DEVELOPMENT...AND AN INCREASING ADVANCED DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE T-NUMBER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nSTRENGTH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF\r\nTHE FORECAST...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. CARLOS REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY\r\nAGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE A\r\nSPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET.  THE HWRF...GFDL...\r\nAND UKMET ARE STILL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...\r\nWHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE STILL ON THE NORTH SIDE.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nCORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 10.0N 128.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 10.3N 129.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 10.7N 130.9W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 11.1N 132.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 12.0N 140.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 152.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":21,"Date":"2009-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF CARLOS HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS\r\nEVENING...BUT REMAINS VERY DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGES.  THE EYE\r\nHAS COOLED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BUT SO HAS THE\r\nSURROUNDING RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM BOTH AGENCIES SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO\r\n90 KT.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS IS APPROACHING AN\r\nAREA OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER\r\n200 MB FLOW IN THAT AREA THAN DOES THE GFS MODEL...WHICH THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE USES FOR ITS SHEAR COMPUTATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/SHIPS SOLUTION AND FORECAST ONLY\r\nA SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR\r\nTINY CARLOS HAVE PROVEN TO BE VERY CHALLENGING SO FAR.  IF THE\r\nSHEAR TURNS OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THE SMALL HURRICANE\r\nWOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/6.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS\r\nTHE HURRICANE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAVING EXHIBITED A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD BIAS THUS FAR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN A DEEP\r\nSYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  SOME\r\nACCELERATION WOULD BE EXPECTED WHENEVER CARLOS WEAKENS AND IS\r\nINCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE FASTER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 10.0N 128.6W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 10.3N 129.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 10.7N 131.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 11.1N 133.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 11.6N 135.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 12.0N 140.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 12.0N 146.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 12.0N 153.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":22,"Date":"2009-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n\r\nCARLOS REMAINS A COMPACT ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LACK OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE FEATURES OUTSIDE OF A NEARLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING A 10 NM EYE.  RECENT INFRARED IMAGES...\r\nHOWEVER...INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS RING\r\nHAVE WARMED...HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SYMMETRIC...AND HAVE SHRUNK\r\nIN SIZE.  IN SPITE OF THIS...DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 FROM BOTH SAB\r\nAND TAFB SUPPORT AND INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nSHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD\r\nNOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY IN MAGNITUDE OVER CARLOS DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS AND MAY EVEN DECREASE TEMPORARILY AROUND 24-36 HOURS. THIS\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING BY TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FOR THIS\r\nREASON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SUBTLE SHORT-TERM\r\nDECREASE IN INTENSITY IN LINE WITH SHIPS MODEL AND ICON INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN ENHANCED MID-OCEAN TROUGH...COUPLED WITH THE\r\nSMALL SIZE OF CARLOS...SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.\r\nGIVEN THE RECENT POOR PERFORMANCE OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. \r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/5...\r\nWHICH REPRESENTS A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION DURING THE\r\nLAST 24 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nINITIALLY PERSISTS THE SLOWER MOTION AND LAGS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.  AS CARLOS BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES AN ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY AN ENHANCED LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nOF NOTE...WITH AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT...CARLOS HAS BECOME THE\r\nSTRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR SOUTH IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SINCE\r\nRELIABLE DATA RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 10.2N 129.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 10.3N 130.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 10.7N 131.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 11.0N 133.4W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 11.4N 135.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 11.9N 140.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 12.0N 146.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 12.0N 153.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":23,"Date":"2009-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CARLOS HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1200 UTC\r\nWERE 4.0. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 75 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...HOWEVER THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/05...WITH LESS CERTAINTY\r\nNOW THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\n...TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...PARTICULARLY IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...DUE IN LARGE PART TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY\r\nANALYSIS. WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND OCEAN CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\n...CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST OTHERWISE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND MAY BE LOWERED FURTHER IN THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL. ACCORDINGLY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...OTHER THAN THE\r\nGFDL...INDICATES THAT CARLOS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH ICON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 10.3N 129.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 10.5N 130.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 10.9N 132.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 11.3N 134.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 11.6N 136.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 12.0N 142.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 12.0N 147.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 12.0N 153.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":24,"Date":"2009-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n \r\nCARLOS HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN...AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20\r\nKT AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL HAS REMOVED THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 1800 UTC FINAL-T NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND\r\n3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/08. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WELL TO SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED\r\nON THE CURRENT POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. THIS TRACK IS SOUTH OF\r\nMUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH IMMEDIATELY SHOWS A NORTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT TO THE MOTION. I SEE LITTLE REASON FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nGAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...AND THIS THINKING IS SUPPORTED BY THE BAM MODELS. THE\r\nMEDIUM AND DEEP BAMS EVEN SHOW A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION ON\r\nDAYS 2 AND 3...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS DETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...CARLOS COULD\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR BE RE-ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 12 HOURS...THE WATERS\r\nREMAIN WARM AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...AND CARLOS COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...CARLOS WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASED\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LIKELY RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 10.1N 130.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 10.1N 132.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 10.1N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 10.1N 136.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 10.0N 138.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z  9.5N 144.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z  9.5N 150.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z  9.5N 156.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":25,"Date":"2009-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n \r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT CARLOS...WITH\r\nOCCASIONAL PUFFS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nTHERE IS ALSO SOME POORLY-DEFINED OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nREMAIN 55 KT...THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF CARLOS SUGGESTS IT HAS\r\nWEAKENED SINCE 18Z.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/11.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE OR REASONING SINCE THE LAST\r\nPACKAGE.  CARLOS IS IN EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...AND BY 36 HR IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER NORTHERLY TO\r\nNORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT THERE\r\nIS LITTLE REASON FOR CARLOS TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE...ESPECIALLY AS\r\nMUCH AS FORECAST BY THE RIGHT-OUTLIERS NOGAPS AND GFDN.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAMM...BAMD...AND GFS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nIN 15-20 KT OF SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR\r\nDIRECTION LIKELY TO CHANGE FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY DURING THAT\r\nTIME.  THIS IS ENOUGH SHEAR TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON A CYCLONE AS SMALL\r\nAS CARLOS.  THE HWRF FORECASTS THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE AFTER 72\r\nHR...WHILE THE OTHER INTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS ON TO IT THROUGH\r\n120 HR.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOS TO\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN FOR 24-36 HR AND THEN PERSIST THROUGH 120 HR IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.   ALTERNATE SCENARIOS ARE THAT\r\nTHE SMALL CIRCULATION DECAYS TO A TROUGH...OR THAT IT GETS ABSORBED\r\nBY A LARGER ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  EITHER OF THESE\r\nCOULD HAPPEN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 10.2N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 10.3N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 10.3N 135.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 10.3N 137.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 10.4N 140.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 10.5N 146.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 10.0N 152.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 10.0N 158.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlos","Adv":26,"Date":"2009-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY AND I AM NOT SURE\r\nIF A CLOSED CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT. THE SYSTEM RESEMBLES A\r\nWEAK LOW OR A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. THERE IS NO EVIDENCE\r\nOF A CIRCULATION ON MICROWAVE DATA EITHER. HOWEVER...FOLLOWING\r\nCONTINUITY AND THE FACT THAT VISIBLE IMAGES ARE NOT AVAILABLE...I\r\nWILL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME. SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS CARLOS IMMEDIATELY AND BASICALLY\r\nDISSIPATES IT IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND AND THE\r\nINCREASING SHEAR...CARLOS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TOO.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 12 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW. I DO NOT THINK THAT MODELS ARE VERY USEFUL GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSHALLOW STRUCTURE OF CARLOS OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 10.1N 133.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 10.1N 135.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 10.3N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 10.3N 140.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 10.3N 142.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 10.5N 148.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlos","Adv":27,"Date":"2009-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009\r\n\r\nCARLOS HAS A SMALL AND POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT IS\r\nSTILL PRODUCING SOME DEEP CONVECTION.  THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF\r\nBECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED AS SUCH LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 270/14.  A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z  9.8N 135.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z  9.8N 136.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 10.0N 139.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 10.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 10.0N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlos","Adv":28,"Date":"2009-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP042009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009\r\n\r\nCARLOS HAS BECOME A POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IN THE ITCZ WITH\r\nVERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nCARLOS.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT OF CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES UNTIL COMPLETELY LOSING ITS IDENTITY WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z  9.4N 136.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z  9.5N 138.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z  9.5N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z  9.5N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SPRAWLING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THROUGH\r\nTHE AFTERNOON...AS INDICATED BY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT\r\nPASS.  WHILE THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...IT IS ORGANIZED INTO BANDS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WITH\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO WARRANT THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT ON THE BASIS OF THE ASCAT\r\nDATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER HAS SO LITTLE HISTORY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/9.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT MID\r\nLEVELS...AND A LOW AT UPPER LEVELS...LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW IS ENHANCING\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE CONVECTION\r\nIS ASYMMETRIC ENOUGH TO PERHAPS CAUSE THE CENTER TO JUMP OR REFORM\r\nTO THE NORTH OR EAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  APART FROM THIS...A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATERS AND TURNS MORE WESTWARD WITH THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE RIGHT\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF...EARLY BUT THEN\r\nFAVORS THE LEFT-LEANING GFS/GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER LOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE'S CENTER...AND THE CURRENT LIMITED CENTRAL ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nUPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE DEPRESSION...WHICH\r\nWOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN 36-48 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 13.8N 113.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 119.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 140.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION TO ITS EAST. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE ON IR IMAGES...BUT WE KNOW IT IS NOT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME...AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE\r\nDATA. IN FACT....A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER COULD\r\nBE FARTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED AND EVEN MORE REMOVED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN TWO DAYS OR SO.\r\nHOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nBASED ON CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST AND SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED\r\nAND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME MORE SHALLOW AND STEERED WESTWARD BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND HEAVILY BIAS ON THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 14.2N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N 118.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 123.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.5N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 21.5N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n\r\nENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH A 0856\r\nUTC TMI OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF DOLORES IS STILL\r\nSOMEWHAT DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEVELOPING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT OF THE BANDING FEATURES OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WARRANTS AN INCREASE OF THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.  THE ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF DOLORES\r\nAPPEARS TO BE DUE TO SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE UPPER\r\nWIND FLOW...HOWEVER...BECOMES MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nPORTION OF DOLORES WHICH IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE DOLORES BEGINS TRAVERSING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  IF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND\r\nLIFTS OUT SOONER THAN SUGGESTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THEN THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.   \r\n\r\nTHE TMI PASS WAS ALSO QUITE HELPFUL IN ESTIMATING THE MOTION OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM...WHICH IS NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 11 KT.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DOLORES REMAINING\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED\r\nBY DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW AND BECOMES\r\nINFLUENCED MORE BY THE SHALLOW EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.    \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 15.0N 115.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N 119.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N 122.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.6N 125.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.5N 137.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 21.5N 143.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DOLORES' CIRCULATION CENTER IS\r\nPARTIALLY DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CLOUD PATTERN.\r\nALTHOUGH DOLORES HAS BEEN AFFECTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...AS REFLECTED BY THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nSOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nDESPITE THE RATHER MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.\r\nAFTERWARD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS DOLORES MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ULTIMATELY BEING REDUCED TO A\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nDOLORES COULD BECOME A BIT STRONGER EARLY IN THE PERIOD THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IF THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND\r\nLIFTS NORTHEASTWARD SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/12. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FROM\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A GRADUAL TURN MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW AS THE DOLORES\r\nWEAKENS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHIS MORNING'S FORECAST AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 16.2N 116.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.1N 118.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.6N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 22.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2009\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DOLORES\r\nIS SOMEWHAT ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  IN ADDITION...\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN ROTATING CYCLONICALLY FROM THE NORTH SIDE OF\r\nDOLORES TO ITS CURRENT LOCATION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION IS NOW CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM...THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS EXPANDING WESTWARD...AND OVERALL DOLORES IS DISPLAYING A\r\nHEALTHIER SATELLITE SIGNATURE THAN EARLIER TODAY.  SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB/TAFB/CIMSS ARE ALL 45 KT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT VALUE.  THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW\r\nAVAILABLE FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE STORM WILL BE\r\nOVER SSTS LESS THAN 26C BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  AFTER THAT TIME...A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS DOLORES MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS.  THE WEAKENING COULD BE PROTRACTED DUE TO GENERALLY LIGHT\r\nFORECAST ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN ABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW AROUND THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 310/12.  THERE IS NO CHANGE\r\nTO THE SHORT-TERM SYNOPTIC REASONING AS DOLORES IS BEING STEERED\r\nPRIMARILY BY A LARGE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE\r\nSTORM ON MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nHOWEVER...SOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS...ARE NOW\r\nFORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE AND LESS OF A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT\r\nSTILL LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...NOT TOO FAR FROM THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF.  AT LONGER RANGES...MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST A\r\nDEEP-LAYER WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 140W...WHICH\r\nCOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR...BUT IS\r\nSTILL ON THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THAT\r\nTIME.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 17.1N 117.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.2N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 19.4N 122.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.6N 125.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N 128.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 25.5N 143.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LOW LEVEL-CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST\r\nTO SOUTHEAST AND IN FACT...THE LATEST QUIKSCAT SHOWS A DISORGANIZED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO FIND EVEN USING THE\r\nAMBIGUITIES. HOWEVER...THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nBUT THE CONVECTION IS VANISHING AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nARE ASSUMING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COLLOCATED WITH THE\r\nMID-LEVEL AND THE T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SAME AS\r\n00 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BUT THIS COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. BECAUSE A PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THEREAFTER...DOLORES IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. DOLORES APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE BIT FASTER AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY\r\nWITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AS DOLORES WEAKENS TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS KEEPING THE\r\nCYCLONE OR THE LOW ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK...BUT THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGER THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOLLOWING THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF PAIR AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 18.2N 119.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 124.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 25.5N 138.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH OVER THE CENTER OF DOLORES AS THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS. DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTO BE SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH STILL APPEARED TO BE \r\nWELL-DEFINED IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 0800 UTC. THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/16. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK \r\nTURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE\r\nHWRF AND GFDL AND SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...\r\nWHICH TAKE A DEEPER CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPING ALONG 140W.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS. DOLORES COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN SHOWN\r\nHERE...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT\r\nREFORM NEAR THE CENTER LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 18.9N 120.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.1N 122.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 125.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 22.3N 128.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 23.2N 130.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolores","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009\r\n \r\nDOLORES HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 1330 UTC...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT IF SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-FIRE...WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY NOW THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS OVER WATERS OF AROUND 24C.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16...AND THE TRACK REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nINITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DISSIPATING BETWEEN 48 AND\r\n72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE SOONER...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 19.3N 122.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.4N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 21.4N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 22.3N 130.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.9N 133.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dolores","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP052009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052009\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2009\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE ONLY SOME PUNY CELLS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nDOLORES.  WITH WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASING BELOW 24C...NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME.  A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF DOLORES IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION...\r\nWHICH MOST MODELS SHOW HAPPENING IN ABOUT 48 TO 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DOLORES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 19.6N 124.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.4N 126.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.4N 129.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 22.3N 131.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N 134.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-07-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP062009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062009\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AROUND THE\r\nAREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE\r\nPACIFIC OCEAN WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0...AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E.  THE\r\nCENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A 1116 UTC\r\nAMSU PASS INDICATES THAT IT IS PROBABLY NOT ANY FARTHER SOUTH THAN\r\nABOUT 12N.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THE RESULTANT MOTION IS A QUICK\r\n275/16.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT AN ANTICYCLONE WILL\r\nBREAK OFF THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE WESTWARD...KEEPING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL WESTWARD COURSE SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SHALLOW ENOUGH AT\r\nTHAT TIME TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nFOR ONLY THE FIRST 36-48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME SOUTHWESTERLY TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE AS SHOWN\r\nBY THE SHIPS MODEL.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HOURS THEN STEADY WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THIS SCENARIO AGREES WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN GFDL AND THE HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHIS DEPRESSION WILL BE CROSSING 140W SOON...AND ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE\r\nCENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 12.0N 139.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 12.1N 141.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 12.3N 144.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 12.6N 147.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 13.1N 150.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 14.0N 156.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N 166.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED\r\nWELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BANDING FEATURES\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE\r\nBECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED\r\nWITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE NOW AT T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nOBSERVED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE CYCLONE\r\nIS SITUATED IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REASONABLY CONDUCIVE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS\r\nAND MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...INTENSIFICATION SHOULD HALT AS THE SYSTEM REACHES\r\nMARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nSEVEN-E IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF WEST NEAR 12 KNOTS. GLOBAL\r\nFORECAST MODELS MAINTAIN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A POTENTIAL COMPLICATING\r\nFACTOR IS THE PRESENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 9 DEGREES TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. AT THIS TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES\r\nNOT SHOW MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS. ASSUMING THAT\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE CASE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A MOTION\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN\r\nGENERAL ACCORDANCE WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 13.0N 112.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 13.5N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.0N 116.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 118.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 16.0N 124.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 17.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nLAST 6 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nAND A PROMINENT CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS WERE 2.0 FROM SAB AND 3.0\r\nFROM TAFB...AND BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...THE DEPRESSION IS \r\nUPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A MODEST MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF ENRIQUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST.\r\nWHILE THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ENRIQUE TO NEWLY-FORMED TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION EIGHT-E TO THE WEST COULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL BINARY\r\nINTERACTION...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONES WILL\r\nNOT SIGNIFICANTLY INFLUENCE ONE ANOTHER. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES\r\nLITTLE INTERACTION WILL OCCUR AND ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT NORTHERLY SHEAR...\r\nASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT-E...CONTINUES TO AFFECT ENRIQUE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED RECENTLY AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN\r\nEXPANDING CANOPY OF CIRRUS OUTFLOW ONLY PARTIALLY RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTH. ENRIQUE SHOULD HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY IN \r\nFOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH WARM WATERS AND MOSTLY LIGHT\r\nNORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT\r\nINCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW\r\nWEAKENING...BUT ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER AT LEAST 26.5C\r\nWATER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES \r\nBETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE ICON CONSENSUS.\r\nSHOULD ENRIQUE MOVE MORE NORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN\r\nTHE FORECAST INDICATES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 13.3N 113.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 13.9N 115.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 14.6N 117.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 15.1N 119.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.6N 121.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 125.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 129.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 17.0N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n \r\nENRIQUE HAS A RAGGED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nIS BEING RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO SO THE STORM IS\r\nBEING HELD AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.\r\n\r\nRECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT\r\nENRIQUE HAS ACCELERATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...POSSIBLY DUE TO\r\nSOME INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT-E.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND MOST ARE FAVORING\r\nSTRONGER DEVELOPMENT OF T.D. EIGHT-E INSTEAD OF ENRIQUE.  THERE IS\r\nLARGE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 24-36 HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FAIRLY HIGH UNCERTAINTY.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TOWARDS\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ENRIQUE MAY NOT\r\nSURVIVE AFTER A FEW DAYS IF T.D. EIGHT-E BECOMES THE DOMINANT\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS EITHER NO OR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  NORTHERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOTCHED DOWNWARD\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS FORECAST STILL LIES AT THE UPPER\r\nLIMIT OF THE GUIDANCE...VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT IS\r\nLIKELY THAT THIS CHANGE MIGHT NOT BE ENOUGH SINCE THE HWRF SHOWS\r\nALMOST NO INTENSIFICATION AND THE GFDL DISSIPATES ENRIQUE IN ABOUT\r\n42 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 14.0N 115.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 14.9N 117.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 15.7N 119.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 16.4N 120.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 17.0N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 17.5N 131.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW BECOMING\r\nMORE DISTINCT.  TAKING A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB GIVES 50 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE.  ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENRIQUE WILL WEAKEN...AT LEAST PARTIALLY\r\nDUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF NEIGHBORING TROPICAL STORM FELICIA.\r\nHOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A TOTALLY REALISTIC\r\nINITIALIZATION OF THE TWO STORMS.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED UPWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BRISK 290/14.  THE TWO PRIMARY\r\nSTEERING MECHANISMS ARE A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE STORM AND THE CIRCULATION OF FELICIA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE DYNAMICAL\r\nCONSENSUS IS SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER AND SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN WHICH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES WILL BE THE DOMINANT SYSTEM.  EVEN THOUGH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT FELICIA WILL DOMINATE...AT THE MOMENT\r\nENRIQUE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST DOES NOT\r\nCOMPLETELY BUY INTO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODELS BUT IS BETWEEN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 14.7N 117.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.5N 118.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N 121.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.2N 123.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.8N 125.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 18.5N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n\r\nENRIQUE IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES ON\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY BUT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS RATHER SMALL.\r\nTHERE IS A DRY SLOT OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nTHAT MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION. BLENDING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nGIVES A 50-KT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTRAVERSE MARGINALLY WARM OCEAN WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...BUT MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A\r\nLITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS...COOLER WATERS WILL\r\nLIKELY CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE PRESENCE OF NEIGHBORING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE FORECAST. SOME\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ENRIQUE SWINGING AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND MOVING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO ENCOUNTER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nA COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...NAMELY THE GFS AND ECMWF...PREDICT\r\nTHAT FELICIA WILL ABSORB ENRIQUE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS\r\nQUESTIONABLE GIVEN THAT FELICIA...ALTHOUGH IT IS THE STRONGER\r\nSYSTEM... DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A LARGER CIRCULATION THAN ENRIQUE\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AROUND 290/14. AGAIN THE TWO MAIN\r\nSTEERING MECHANISMS ARE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF FELICIA. IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE FORMER WILL BE THE\r\nMORE DOMINANT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS ALSO\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFDL AND HWRF TRACKS...WITH THE\r\nFORMER BEING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 15.0N 118.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 15.9N 120.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.8N 122.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 17.6N 123.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 18.4N 125.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 19.5N 129.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N 134.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 19.0N 138.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE HAS\r\nBECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nEAST OF HURRICANE FELICIA. THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH ENRIQUE HAS MARKEDLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS...\r\nSHRINKING TO A SMALL AREA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND\r\n35 KT...RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE\r\nSYSTEM IS DECREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THE SYSTEM IS 295/13. WHILE THE\r\nPRIMARY SYNOPTIC STEERING MECHANISM FOR ENRIQUE IS THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST...LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF FELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT\r\nOF MOTION OVER THE LAST DAY OR SO. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD\r\nAMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF ENRIQUE. AFTER 24\r\nHOURS THE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN ENRIQUE AND ABSORB ITS REMNANTS INTO\r\nFELICIA. THE NOGAPS MAINTAINS ENRIQUE AS A STRONGER SYSTEM...WHICH\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND THE UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE UKMET ALLOWS MORE DISTANCE TO BUILD BETWEEN THE\r\nSYSTEMS...BUT DISSIPATES ENRIQUE BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS. BECAUSE\r\nOF THE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER\r\nENRIQUE WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...ENRIQUE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 27C\r\nAND MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE\r\nCONDITIONS...WITH A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 16.0N 119.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 18.0N 123.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 18.8N 125.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 19.1N 127.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.5N 131.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ENRIQUE IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE...BUT QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0230 UTC SHOWED A\r\nCOUPLE OF 50-KT WIND VECTORS. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nDETERIORATED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON\r\nTHE QUIKSCAT DATA. ENRIQUE SHOULD WEAKEN PRIMARILY DUE TO NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL BECOME ABSORBED IN A DAY OR TWO BY\r\nTHE MUCH LARGER AND STRONGER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE FELICIA\r\nLOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN\r\nTHE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A TURN\r\nMORE TO THE WEST AS ENRIQUE OR THE REMNANT LOW GRADUALLY APPROACHES\r\nFELICIA. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO\r\nWEST TRACK AND DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE BEYOND A DAY OR TWO.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 16.8N 120.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 17.7N 122.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 19.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nA BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY IMPROVED THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF ENRIQUE WITH A SLIGHT SATELLITE-BASED ADJUSTMENT OF\r\nTHE DIFFUSE CENTER TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE BEST CONVECTION. \r\nDEVELOPMENT IN THIS DIRECTION WILL SOON LEAD TO WEAKENING GIVEN ITS\r\nRELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MUCH-STRONGER FELICIA.  VARIOUS\r\nGUIDANCE...INCLUDING HWRF AND GHM...INDICATE A FAIRLY RAPID\r\nDISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY IS\r\nABSORBED INTO FELICIA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DISSIPATION\r\nTO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 48 HOURS.    \r\n\r\n \r\nENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE INDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO\r\nFELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY TURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST BY 24\r\nHOURS...MOST MODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 17.3N 122.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 19.3N 126.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 19.7N 131.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER SOWKO\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nDESPITE A LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE PAST 6 HOURS...12Z GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES THE THINKING OF RAPIDLY WEAKENING ENRIQUE AS\r\nIT ENCOUNTERS GREATER SHEAR AND COOLER SST AT PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER\r\nLATITUDES.  FELICIA IS INGESTING MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE\r\nFROM THE SOUTH LEAVING ENRIQUE WITH A WANING MOISTURE SOURCE FROM\r\nTHE EAST. THE INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE AND ASYMMETRICAL CENTER WAS\r\nANALYZED AT 18Z NORTH OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION...AND THE\r\nCONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADANT WHERE\r\nCONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORBALE.  FARTHER WEST...VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nCLEARLY SHOWS FELICIA HAVING A DELETERIOUS EFFECT ON ENRIQUE...AND\r\nHWRF/GHM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION WITHIN 36\r\nHOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE ENERGY WILL BE ABSORBED INTO FELICIA.\r\n \r\nENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE FLOW BETWEEN FELICIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MODELS ARE\r\nINDICATING A FUJIWHARA EFFECT OWING TO FELICIA THAT WILL GRADUALLY\r\nTURN THE MOTION ALMOST DUE WEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MOST\r\nMODELS DO NOT KEEP THE CYCLONE INTACT BEYOND 24-36 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 18.4N 123.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 20.3N 127.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 20.8N 130.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER SOWKO\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN\r\nPRODUCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nWEAKENED A BIT AND ALSO HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD...TO A POSITION\r\nBASICALLY DUE NORTH OF ENRIQUE.  THIS HAS CAUSED THE UPPER WIND\r\nPATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND VEER\r\nIN A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.  AS A RESULT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT ENRIQUE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST WHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  A 2222Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO DEPICTED A\r\nPARTIAL BUT CLEARLY DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING PATTERN BENEATH THE\r\nCDO.  BECAUSE OF THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE AND\r\nMICROWAVE PRESENTATIONS...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS THAT REVEALED\r\nNUMEROUS BELIEVABLE 45 KT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n45 KT. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE IN WEAKENING ENRIQUE INTO\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS AND DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS...PRIMARILY DUE\r\nTO COOLER WATER AND 20-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nLARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH\r\nULTIMATELY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS.   \r\n \r\nENRIQUE IS MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...310/15.\r\nHURRICANE FELICIAS PERIPHERAL WIND FIELD SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCING\r\nTHIS CHANGE IN MOTION...COMPARING TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS NOT WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO\r\nCAUSE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIFT IN MOTION.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING\r\nCLOSELY TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 19.7N 124.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N 129.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.6N 132.2W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 23.0N 135.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n \r\nCONTRARY TO WHAT THE MODELS WERE INDICATING...ENRIQUE HAS REMAINED\r\nDETACHED FROM FELICIA. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ENRIQUE\r\nHAS SURPRISINGLY MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL BUT\r\nSTRONG AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE RESILIENT CLOUD PATTERN\r\nAND A 0300 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45\r\nKNOTS. NEITHER THE SHEAR NOR THE PROXIMITY TO FELICIA HAVE WEAKENED\r\nENRIQUE...BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER 24.4 DEGREES CELSIUS\r\nWATERS AND IS HEADING TOWARD EVEN COLDER SSTS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE\r\nTHE KISS OF DEATH AND ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS\r\nWITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN CIRCULATION OF FELICIA AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO BE\r\nSTEERED MORE THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT EVEN\r\nACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE...AND THE ONES THAT DO...MOVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 20.7N 125.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.0N 127.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 22.5N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 23.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ENRIQUE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME\r\nALMOST NON-EXISTENT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT\r\nLOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.  A FORTUITOUS 1015 UTC\r\nAMSR-E OVERPASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  ENRIQUE IS ALREADY OVER SSTS BELOW 24 DEGREES CELSIUS AND\r\nHEADING TOWARD EVEN COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE... CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS PREDICTED AND ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW IN A DAY\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 300/15 KT.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD\r\nWITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 21.3N 127.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 22.2N 129.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 23.0N 132.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 23.2N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT ENRIQUE IS\r\nLOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO WANE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY DECREASED AND \r\nSUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT.\r\n \r\nENRIQUE IS HEADED TOWARD EVEN COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTHE WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/15 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nNOW PREDICTS LESS OF A BEND TOWARD THE WEST AS ENRIQUE APPARENTLY\r\nBECOMES LESS INVOLVED WITH THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE\r\nFELICIA. BECAUSE OF THAT...AND THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 22.5N 128.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 23.5N 130.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 24.8N 132.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.7N 135.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT UNWAVERING ENRIQUE\r\nIS SUSTAINING A SMALL BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY\r\nTRAVERSING 22 TO 23 DEGREE CELSIUS WATERS AND IS MOVING WITHIN\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  AS A RESULT...IT IS ASSUMED THAT ENRIQUE WILL\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS WITH\r\nDISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nENRIQUE HAS SLOWED A BIT THIS EVENING...315/12...IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII\r\nUNTIL AFTER ENRIQUE DISSIPATES.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IMPLYING THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 23.2N 129.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 24.3N 130.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 25.5N 132.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 26.6N 135.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009\r\n \r\nENRIQUE HAS BEEN A RESILIENT CYCLONE. DESPITE THE HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT...IT STILL HAS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH SMALL AREA OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER. EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT\r\n30-KNOT WINDS BUT...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND THE FACT THAT\r\nENRIQUE IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS...WEAKENING IS INDICATED. \r\nENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH\r\nA TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN\r\nABOUT A DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 24.1N 129.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 25.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 26.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009\r\n \r\nENRIQUE MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER DURING\r\nTHE NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS VERY RECENTLY DISSIPATED\r\nAND THE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  HOWEVER\r\nWE WILL WAIT A LITTLE LONGER TO MAKE SURE THAT ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT...A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN BEFORE.  ENRIQUE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nHEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 24.4N 129.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 25.6N 131.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP072009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009\r\n \r\nENRIQUE HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE A LITTLE AFTER 1200\r\nUTC THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB 22C WATER AND DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. THEREFORE...ENRIQUE\r\nIS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS SLOWED AS IT HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE\r\nREMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT\r\nLOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nENRIQUE.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 25.0N 129.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 25.5N 130.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 25.9N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 03 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL\r\nSOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5 AND 1.5...\r\nRESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION\r\n...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED\r\nONLY ABOUT 500-600 NM WEST OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE...HOWEVER THE\r\nCYCLONES DO NOT APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING EACH OTHER...AND THIS\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT ANY INTERACTION WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW\r\nAROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED WEST OF THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nPROVIDE A BIT OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK OVER THE FIRST\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS IT MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WITH SSTS OF 28-29C AND SHEAR OF 10 KT OR LESS \r\nFORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS BY\r\nSHOWING WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. WHILE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE IT...THE INTENSITY\r\nPROBABILITIES SHOW A 35 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nREACH HURRICANE INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 11.9N 122.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 12.6N 124.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 13.6N 125.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 14.8N 127.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 15.9N 129.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 139.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 18.5N 145.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BUT\r\nLATEST AVAILABLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS\r\nSTILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS\r\nDISRUPTED IN THE EASTERN SIDE BY THE OUTFLOW OF ENRIQUE...LOCATED\r\nNOT TOO FAR TO THE EAST. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH AND\r\nARE 2.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nKEPT AT 30 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...BUT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM TODAY. DESPITE THE INTERACTION WITH ENRIQUE....WHICH\r\nCOULD BE A INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT FACTOR...BOTH SSTS AND SHEAR ARE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND\r\nSLOW WEAKENING THEREAFTER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOW INTENSIFICATION\r\nAND WEAKENING TRENDS SHOWN BY THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 11\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP TROPICAL EASTERLY\r\nFLOW...BUT BOTH THE EFFECT OF ENRIQUE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nWILL LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nDURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE DEPRESSION COULD SLOW DOWN A\r\nLITTLE DURING THAT PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...ALL BETS ARE THAT THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION WILL REBUILD AS ENRIQUE\r\nWEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN MORE TO THE WEST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY-PACKED TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 12.3N 123.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 13.0N 125.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 14.0N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 15.0N 129.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 16.0N 131.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 135.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 18.0N 140.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E HAS\r\nBECOME TROPICAL STORM FELICIA...THE SIXTH STORM OF THE SEASON.  THE\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A PROMINENT\r\nBANDING FEATURE WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/CIMSS ARE BETWEEN 35-45 KT...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 40 KT.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FELICIA REMAINS OVER\r\nWARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF\r\nINCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR FROM TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE AND COOLER\r\nWATERS COULD LIMIT ANY FUTURE STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LINE\r\nWITH THE SHIPS/HWRF/LGEM MODELS IN MAKING THIS STORM A HURRICANE ON\r\nTHURSDAY.\r\n \r\nFELICIA APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT ABOUT 295/12...THOUGH RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT COULD BE MOVING A BIT MORE TO THE\r\nWEST.  FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FELICIA IS EXPECTED TO STEERED\r\nBY RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERD ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST BECOMES COMPLICATED WITH THE PRESENCE OF ENRIQUE TO\r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A WEAKENING UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE...WITH THE ECMWF EVEN SHOWING\r\nENRIQUE PINWHEELING AROUND FELICIA.  WHILE THAT SITUATION IS NOT\r\nCONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS TIME...IN GENERAL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL TREND IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE AT LONGER-RANGE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 12.7N 124.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 13.5N 126.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.4N 128.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.3N 130.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 16.1N 131.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-04 17:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n1000 AM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REVISE THE TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY OF FELICIA.  A 1327 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE PASS RECEIVED JUST\r\nAFTER ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN\r\nEYEWALL-LIKE FEATURE.  IN ADDITION...RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH HINTS OF AN EYE.  SPECIAL\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS\r\nNEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60\r\nKT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED AND IS BASICALLY A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.  \r\n \r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT FELICIA IS CENTERED FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1700Z 12.3N 125.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 12.8N 126.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 13.8N 128.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 14.6N 130.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 15.3N 132.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 141.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 147.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FELICIA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE\r\nAND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT\r\n1800 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT BUT SINCE THAT TIME... THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT...MAKING FELICIA THE THIRD HURRICANE\r\nOF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IN A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE TODAY...AND\r\nWITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE QUESTION IS: HOW STRONG WILL IT GET? THE\r\nPRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE 85 AND 37 GHZ CHANNELS OF A 1547 UTC\r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE PASS SUPPORTS MORE STRENGTHENING...EVEN A\r\nCONTINUATION OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO FORECASTS A 62 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...ABOUT 8 TIMES THE SAMPLE\r\nMEAN. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST WILL LEAN ON SHIPS AND THE MICROWAVE DATA TO\r\nFORECAST RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND LEVEL\r\nOFF THE WINDS THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS. IN THE LONGER-TERM...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR MAY\r\nALSO HELP TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFELICIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...280/12. A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DUE TO A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FELICIA TO MOVE\r\nMORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE\r\nIS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENRIQUE TO CAUSE FURTHER RIDGE WEAKENING...\r\nWHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF\r\nFELICIA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nWITH THE GFDL/HWRF/ECMWF SHOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NONE. FOR\r\nNOW...I'M GOING TO LEAN ON THE GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS MORE SEPARATION\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES JUST SOUTH\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 12.4N 126.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 13.0N 128.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 13.9N 130.1W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 14.7N 131.7W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 15.5N 133.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 137.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 142.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 148.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY\r\nINTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS\r\nA BAND OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CENTER AND \r\nWRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND AN EYE THAT IS NOW APPARENT IN\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND A DATA-T NUMBER OF\r\n5.0 FROM A 0130 UTC SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION BY TAFB...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nFELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND JOGGED TOWARD THE WEST\r\nEARLIER TODAY AS IT BEGAN INTENSIFYING...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE NOW\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING ALONG A HEADING OF 285/10...SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED ALONG 130W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH LOCATED OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND\r\nMOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-BUILD NORTH OF FELICIA IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. LATE IN THE PERIOD...FELICIA'S TRACK MAY\r\nBE IMPACTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT DEVELOPS NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nSIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THIS\r\nFEATURE AND ITS IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE'S TRACK. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CONTINUING...AND ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING DURING \r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX\r\nSHOWS A 45 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS. WHILE THIS IS LOWER THAN IT WAS WITH THE LAST\r\nPACKAGE...IT IS STILL 6 TIMES GREATER THAN THE SAMPLE MEAN. THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nOF FELICIA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE EVEN THE HIGHER\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS PACKAGE BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nTRENDS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER\r\nWATERS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING AT DAY 3 AND\r\nBEYOND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 12.8N 127.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 13.4N 128.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.4N 130.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 15.3N 132.2W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.1N 133.9W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 143.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\nT4.5 AND T4.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.  THE EYE HAS NOW PERSISTED\r\nFOR SEVERAL HOURS AND CONTINUES TO WARM WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION\r\nLOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLES.  AN ANALYSIS\r\nWOULD NOW YIELD A AVERAGE DATA T-NUMBER OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT FELICIA IS A DEEPER SYSTEM...IT IS BEING PULLED A LITTLE\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OFF\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THIS HEADING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...\r\nTWO FACTORS WILL CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN TO THE WEST.  FIRST...THE\r\nTROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND WILL BE\r\nREPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF HAWAII. \r\nSECOND...FELICIA WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT TIME AND WILL BE\r\nINFLUENCED MORE STRONGLY BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA IS\r\nINDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF FELICIA...AND IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT AN OUTFLOW JET MAY BE FORMING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT\r\nSHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nNORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST PUTS FELICIA OVER 24-25\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS WATER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS BY SHOWING FASTER WEAKENING\r\nTHAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IF FELICIA STAYS A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY\r\nFOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 13.4N 128.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 14.1N 129.5W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 15.1N 131.2W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.1N 132.8W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.1N 134.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 19.0N 144.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 150.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nBASED UPON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB OF T6.0 AND T5.0...RESPECTIVELY... AND A PERSISTENT EYE WITH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION LOCATED IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AT 100 KT.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE INITIAL HEADING OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH REMAINS IN\r\nPLACE.  A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS\r\nTHIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES AND IS\r\nREPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NORTH OF THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES FELICIA WILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT POINT AND\r\nWILL BECOME MORE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE\r\nWINDS.  FOLLOWING THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR\r\nTHIS PACKAGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD\r\nSHIFT AS WELL.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR THE STORM TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY AS THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA IS INDUCING\r\nDIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. \r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS UNTIL THE CONTINUED NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPUTS FELICIA OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 14.1N 128.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 15.0N 130.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.4N 131.7W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.4N 133.2W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 18.3N 135.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N 140.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 145.3W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 20.5N 150.9W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PEREIRA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB REMAINED AT T6.0 AND T5.0... RESPECTIVELY... WHILE \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLES AROUND A WELL-DEFINED EYE.  THEREFORE... RAISED THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY A LITTLE FURTHER TO 110 KT WHILE DECREASING THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE TO 940 MB.\r\n \r\nAGAIN... LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED TO THE INITIAL HEADING OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH\r\nOF FELICIA REMAINS IN PLACE.  A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IS EXPECTED BY\r\nDAYS 3 AND BEYOND AS THIS TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE CONTIGUOUS\r\nUNITED STATES AND IS REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH CURRENTLY\r\nCENTERED NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nCOLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR... FELICIA\r\nWILL LIKELY BE WEAKENING BY THAT POINT AND WILL BECOME MORE\r\nSTRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  FOLLOWING A\r\nREASONABLY TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE\r\nMADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR THE STORM TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR\r\nCALIFORNIA IS INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT. OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD REMAIN\r\nSUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nTRACK OF THE STORM TAKES THE CENTER OVER COOLER WATERS.  THIS\r\nDECREASE IN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND A FORECAST INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING DAYS 3 THROUGH\r\n5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 14.5N 129.7W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.2N 130.9W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 132.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 17.8N 134.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 19.0N 136.1W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 20.2N 140.9W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 146.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 20.2N 152.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PEREIRA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009\r\n \r\nFELICIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES INCREASING TO 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM\r\nSAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 120 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH\r\nEXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW\r\nELSEWHERE.  JUST-RECEIVED AMSU DATA SHOWS THAT FELICIA HAS A CLOSED\r\nEYEWALL WITH NO SIGNS OF ANY OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nMOTION.  FELICIA...AS WELL AS TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE TO ITS\r\nNORTHEAST...ARE ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  A LARGE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW IS\r\nCENTERED NEAR 24N148W AND COVERS THE AREA FROM 18N-35N BETWEEN\r\n140W-156W.  A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC NORTH AND WEST OF FELICIA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD\r\nFROM THE LOW NEAR AND EAST OF HAWAII AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING\r\nWEST OF HAWAII.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN BY\r\nFORECASTING FELICIA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES NEAR\r\nFELICIA...WITH UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS SUGGESTS THE CYCLONE COULD SHEAR APART...WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CARRIED WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLIES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER\r\n72 HR AND A LITTLE SLOWER.  IT IS DOWN THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nENVELOPE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nA LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BEFORE FELICIA\r\nMOVES OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH 72 HR AS THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK COOL TO NEAR 24C.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR...AS THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...BASED ON THE THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREEING WELL IN FORECASTING FELICIA TO SHEAR APART DURING\r\nTHAT TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nAFTER 72 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 14.9N 130.5W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.8N 131.7W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.1N 133.2W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.3N 135.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 19.4N 136.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 20.5N 142.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 20.5N 147.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 153.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n \r\nFELICIA APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.  THE EYE HAS BEEN\r\nWARMING AND HAS BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nBUT AT THE SAME TIME THE COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE ALSO\r\nBEEN WARMING.  FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS AGO...\r\nAND THIS ADVISORY MAINTAINS 120-KT AS THE INTENSITY.  FELICIA MAY\r\nHAVE PEAKED NEAR 125 KT AROUND 0200-0300 UTC WHEN A WHITE RING\r\nCOMPLETELY SURROUNDED THE EYE ON THE DVORAK BD ENHANCEMENT CURVE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.  FELICIA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE HURRICANE\r\nCOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAS THE RIDGE RETREATS FARTHER EAST OVER MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT ANOTHER MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII WILL\r\nSHIFT EASTWARD AND CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN BACK TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nTHEN WEST BY DAYS 2 AND 3.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST NOW LIES NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOLUTIONS.\r\nFELICIA IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS\r\nIT WEAKENS AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.\r\n \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nFELICIA REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS.  THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26C AND HEADING\r\nTOWARD INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE FORECAST AT THAT TIME.  ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH\r\nWEAKER VORTEX AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL EVEN DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY THAT TIME.  ONLY THE\r\nHWRF AND GFDL STILL HAVE THE CYCLONE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM ON\r\nDAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BY NOT INDICATING\r\nDISSIPATION BUT WEAKENING FELICIA TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 15.5N 131.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.2N 132.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.4N 133.9W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.5N 135.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.4N 138.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 143.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.0N 148.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 154.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED IN THE EYEWALL OF FELICIA DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...THOUGH THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS ALSO COOLED AT THE\r\nSAME TIME.  OVERALL...THE CHANGES HAVE BEEN PRETTY SMALL WITH THE\r\nHURRICANE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED\r\nAND SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 120 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nSOME WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR SOON AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...FELICIA\r\nIS DEMONSTRATING SOME ANNULAR HURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS...AND WIND\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nWHICH COULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN\r\nIT NORMALLY WOULD OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  FOR THESE REASONS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH SSTS RISE SLIGHTLY AS THE HURRICANE\r\nMOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME MODERATE TO STRONG...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING\r\nPROCESS. IN FACT...ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FELICIA\r\nWILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR DISSIPATED...BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS IS 305/9.  THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE HURRICANE\r\nMOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...RIDGING CURRENTLY NORTH OF HAWAII IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT\r\nEASTWARD AND CAUSE A WESTWARD TURN OF FELICIA.  ASIDE FROM THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL...WHICH HAS A STRANGE INITIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN\r\nFELICIA AND ENRIQUE...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS FORECAST SCENARIO.  IN THE LONGER-RANGE...FELICIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER\r\nSYSTEM AND MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 16.0N 131.9W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 16.8N 133.0W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N 134.6W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.9N 136.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.6N 139.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 20.0N 144.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 19.7N 150.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CLASSIC MAJOR HURRICANE WITH AN EYE\r\nOF ABOUT 20 NM IN DIAMETER AND APPARENT MESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE BIT IN THE\r\nEYEWALL...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 115 KT IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH RECENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nA CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY DUE TO\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS IN ITS PATH.  THIS DECREASE IN STRENGTH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED BY FELICIA HAVING SOME ANNULAR\r\nHURRICANE CHARACTERISTICS.  THIS ANNULAR STRUCTURE IN COMBINATION\r\nWITH LOW WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD ENABLE THE\r\nSYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY MORE THAN IT NORMALLY WOULD OVER\r\nMARGINAL SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NOT TOO\r\nDISSIMILAR TO THE HWRF MODEL.  AT ABOUT THE TIME THAT FELICIA MOVES\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...GLOBAL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND SHEAR\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE WEAKENING PROCESS EVEN\r\nTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM WEST OF 140W.  IN FACT...\r\nALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW THE SYSTEM TO BE\r\nEITHER A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR DISSIPATED AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP FELICIA AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...THOUGH THE STRONG SHEAR COULD\r\nEVEN WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK AND CONTINUES TO MOVE AT ABOUT 305/9.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGESTING THAT FELICIA WILL TURN MORE TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTHEN WEST WITH TIME AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT 72 HOURS...AND LITTLE CHANGE\r\nWAS MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...SINCE FELICIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE MUCH WEAKER AT LONG-RANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL ASSUME THAT THE THE SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  HOWEVER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST POINTS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BECAUSE THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nAS A NOTE...FELICIA IS THE STRONGEST HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE DANIEL OF 2006.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 16.4N 132.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.2N 133.9W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.3N 135.5W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.2N 137.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.7N 140.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.0N 146.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 19.7N 151.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 156.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009\r\n\r\nFELICIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS....WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COLDER\r\nTHAN -70C IN SOME AREAS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nFAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  FELICIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A LARGE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nDOMINATING THE AREA NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N153W.   THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE LOW TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN...\r\nCAUSING A BREAK IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF HAWAII AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE MOST\r\nLIKELY RESULT OF THIS EVOLUTION IS THAT AFTER 48 HR THE MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION OF FELICIA WOULD HAVE ITS WESTWARD MOTION\r\nBLOCKED...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS PUSHES THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WESTWARD.  THIS WOULD CAUSE FELICIA TO SHEAR APART AND THE \r\nREMAINING LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nALTHOUGH WITH SOME SPREAD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS...GFS...NOGAPS...\r\nUKMET...AND ECMWF...ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...WHILE THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL...\r\nHWRF...AND GFDN...ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 72 HR OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS. \r\nTHE TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFELICIA IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THIS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO.  DURING THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  BETWEEN 48-72 HR...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE AS FELICIA ENCOUNTERS THE WEATHER SYSTEMS DESCRIBED ABOVE\r\nAND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FELICIA DISSIPATING AS THIS\r\nHAPPENS...WHICH OCCURS EVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER WARMER SSTS DURING THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR FELICIA TO CONTINUE WEAKENING\r\nAFTER 48 HR.  WARMER SSTS AND LESS-HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS\r\nARE FORECAST SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IF FELICIA MOVES\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THE AFTER-48 HR WEAKENING COULD\r\nBE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 16.9N 133.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.8N 134.9W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 18.7N 136.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 19.4N 138.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.8N 141.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 20.0N 147.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 152.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 19.0N 157.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FELICIA HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DETERIORATED\r\nDURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. MOREOVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE\r\nWARMED CONSIDERABLY AND THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS BECOME\r\nASYMMETRIC. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING REDUCED TO 100 KT ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY...THOUGH THIS MAY BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS GIVEN RECENT\r\nTRENDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/9...THE SAME MOTION THAT HAS\r\nPERSISTED WITH LITTLE DEVIATION FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS.  AT THE\r\nMOMENT...FELICIA IS TRACKING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LYING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO AS STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nAND CAUSES FELICIA TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\nTHEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A WEAKER FELICIA...LIKELY A MORE\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM...BEING STEERED WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\n \r\nFELICIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...WITH THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR ON INTENSITY\r\nLIKELY TO BE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG\r\nTHE PATH OF THE CYCLONE.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NOTED\r\nABOVE...SHOULD ACCELERATE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND IN SPITE OF\r\nMARGINALLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF 150W. SHOULD\r\nFELICIA MOVE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS...THERE IS\r\nSOME CHANCE THAT THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER THAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 17.5N 134.4W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 135.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 137.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 19.4N 140.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 19.6N 142.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 148.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 19.0N 153.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N 159.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009\r\n \r\nFELICIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH A SHRINKING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nAND A LESS DISTINCT EYE ON SATELLITE PICTURES. THERE IS ALSO SOME\r\nSUGGESTION ON NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MAY BE\r\nBECOMING SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  A BLEND\r\nOF THE DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB/TAFB GIVE AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF ABOUT 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW.  IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...WATER TEMPERATURES START TO SLOWLY RISE...BUT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATE FROM THE WEST. THE MODELS\r\nRESPOND TO THESE CHANGES A LITTLE DIFFERENTLY...WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWING FELICIA WEAKENING FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY\r\nA LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND SHOWS FELICIA WEAKENING TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT AND\r\nACCELERATED...NOW 295/11.  THIS IS PROBABLY THE BEGINNING OF THE\r\nWELL-ADVERTISED GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST DUE TO SUBTROPICAL RIDGING\r\nBUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS TURN AND LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE EARLY\r\nPART OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX WITH A SECOND MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD NEAR HAWAII AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.  \r\nIF THE CYCLONE HAS GAINED ENOUGH LATITUDE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHIS WEAKNESS COULD CAUSE FELICIA TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST...A TRACK FAVORED BY THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFS MODELS. \r\nHOWEVER...ANOTHER SET OF MODELS...COMPRISED OF THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF/UKMET/GFDN...SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER BYPASSING THE WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE.  SINCE FELICIA IS LIKELY TO BE WEAK AND STEERED MORE BY\r\nTHE LOWER-LEVEL TRADES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE\r\nSECOND SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.\r\n\r\nDATA FROM A G-IV AIRCRAFT MISSION TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE THIS MORNING SHOULD BE ASSIMILATED INTO THE 1200 UTC\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...AND HOPEFULLY WILL BRING THOSE MODELS INTO\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONGER-TERM.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 17.9N 135.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 18.6N 137.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 19.2N 139.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 141.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 19.6N 144.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N 150.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 19.3N 155.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 19.0N 160.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT FELICIA REMAINS A RELATIVELY WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nHURRICANE WITH A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AND IMPRESSIVE SPIRAL BANDING.\r\nHOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA FROM A 1649 SSMIS PASS SHOW THAT THE\r\nEYEWALL HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER WITH ONLY ABOUT 50\r\nPERCENT COVERAGE AROUND THE EYE.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN \r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL BE KEPT AT\r\n85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD...INITIALLY DUE TO COOL WATERS...THEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nDUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS AND INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT CONTINUES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT\r\n290/12.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD FORCE A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE TOMORROW AND\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THERE IS\r\nSTILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE LONGER\r\nRANGE WITH THE GFS/NOGAPS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND THE UKMET/GFDL/HWRF ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE.  THE\r\nAFTERNOON MODEL CONSENSUS LIES CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST...AND WITH NO CLEAR SIGNALS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION TO\r\nPREFER...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 18.3N 136.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 18.8N 138.7W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 19.3N 141.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N 143.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 146.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 152.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 157.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING A TRMM OVERPASS...INDICATE THAT\r\nFELICIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nTHE EYE IS MORE DISTINCT...AND THE EYEWALL IS MORE SYMMETRIC WITH\r\nCOLDER CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 90 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.  THE\r\nHURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH\r\nGOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS BUILDING NORTH\r\nOF FELICIA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE MODELS\r\nFORECAST FELICIA TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...\r\nA BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND A\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. \r\nTHE MODELS SHOW THIS EVOLUTION BLOCKING THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF FELICIA...CAUSING THE STORM TO\r\nSHEAR APART IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nWOULD THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD IN THE TRADE WINDS.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nIT...CALLING FOR FELICIA TO PASS NEAR THE ISLAND OF HAWAII BETWEEN\r\n72-96 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AN\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS FOR FELICIA TO MAINTAIN SOME VERTICAL\r\nINTEGRITY AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE NEAR HAWAII.\r\n\r\nFELICIA IS STILL MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN...THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION\r\nNOTWITHSTANDING.  WHILE THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST INCREASE\r\nSTARTING IN ABOUT 24 HR...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE\r\nWEAKENING DUE TO THE INCREASED SHEAR BEGINNING IN 36-48 HR.  ALL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR WEAKENING AS FELICIA APPROACHES\r\nHAWAII...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.  IF FELICIA\r\nMOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER WARMER SSTS\r\nAND LESS SHEAR...WHICH COULD ALLOW IT TO REMAIN STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE INTO STRONG SHEAR NORTH OF HAWAII AND\r\nHASTEN ITS DEMISE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 18.8N 138.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 19.3N 139.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 142.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 19.6N 145.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 19.6N 147.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 153.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 159.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 20.0N 164.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE BRIEF INTENSIFICATION\r\nOBSERVED EARLIER IS LIKELY NOW OVER...AND A GRADUAL...WEAKENING\r\nSEEMS TO HAVE COMMENCED.  THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN WARMING...AND A NOTABLE DRY SLOT THAT\r\nHAS BEEN ROTATING NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...FELICIA\r\nHAS BEEN EXHIBITING MANY OF THE COMMON CHARACTERISTICS OF AN\r\nANNULAR HURRICANE...INCLUDING A FAIRLY UNIFORM RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER AND A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE\r\nFEATURES OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA.  ON THE BASIS OF THE DEGRADED\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.5\r\nAND 5.0...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES INDICATE THAT THE HEADING MAY ACTUALLY BE EVEN MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  FELICIA IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO GAIN LITTLE LATITUDE BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS. A WEAKER FELICIA LATER IN THE FORECAST SHOULD CONTINUE ON\r\nA MOSTLY DUE-WESTWARD COURSE WITHIN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. OUTSIDE OF\r\nTHE GFS AND THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH SHOW A MORE NORTHERN\r\nTRACK...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS SCENARIO AND IS\r\nFAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK PASSING CLOSE TO THE ISLAND OF\r\nHAWAII JUST AFTER 72 HOUR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS IN AN EFFORT TO MINIMIZE THE CONTRIBUTION BY THE\r\nGFS AND CANADIAN MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nFELICIA HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING\r\nTHE LAST 24 HOURS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO SLOWLY\r\nWARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  HOWEVER...WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR SHOULD ABRUPTLY INCREASE AROUND 48 HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A\r\nCLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. \r\nALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATED WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  SHOULD FELICIA ASSUME A MOTION\r\nSOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD LIKELY ENCOUNTER A LOWER\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...A MOTION NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD LEAD FELICIA INTO\r\nEVEN HIGHER SHEAR AND WOULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 19.0N 139.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 19.3N 141.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 19.5N 143.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 19.6N 146.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N 149.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 19.5N 154.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 20.0N 165.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Felicia","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP082009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 08 2009\r\n \r\nFELICIA IS MAINTAINING ITS STRUCTURE OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS\r\nWITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE. ALTHOUGH THE EYE\r\nHAS FILLED SOMEWHAT...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL HAVE\r\nACTUALLY COOLED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nWILL BE KEPT AT 80 KT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND WHEN THEY ENTER THE EYE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AS THERE IS A DECENT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN CONTINUES...AND THE HURRICANE IS NOW\r\nMOVING 280/13. A WESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF CYCLONE. IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FELICIA WILL\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES...A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nNEAR HAWAII. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING ABOUT A RELATIVELY FAST\r\nDEMISE OF THE CYCLONE...AS THE MIDDLE TO UPPER PART OF THE STORM IS\r\nHELD TO EAST WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CONTINUES WESTWARD.\r\nWHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK AS THE STORM\r\nAPPROACHES THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWIND SHEAR NEAR THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...THESE\r\nFACTORS CALL FOR A RELATIVELY SLOW WEAKENING. THEREAFTER...WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY RISE...WHICH WOULD TEND TO\r\nDECREASE THE RATE OF WEAKENING. HOWEVER...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE AS WELL. IN FACT...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION\r\nHURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO\r\nSHEAR APART IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THE CONTINUED EFFECTS OF SHEAR\r\nCOULD RESULT IN TOTAL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nDATA FROM A G-IV MISSION THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nHAWAII SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE 1200 UTC GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  \r\n\r\nFUTURE DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP2 AND WMO HEADER\r\nWTPA42 PHFO. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 19.3N 140.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.6N 142.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 19.7N 145.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 19.8N 148.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 19.7N 150.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 156.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N 161.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 20.5N 166.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 09 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH TINY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 800 N MI\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS QUICKLY\r\nATTAINED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE BANDING DURING THE MORNING HOURS TO\r\nWARRANT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT\r\n1800 UTC.  THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO...AND ABOUT 800 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ALLOW THE RIDGE TO ALSO\r\nBUILD WESTWARD...STEERING T.D. NINE-E ON A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...THE GFS AND UKMET DO NOT INITIALIZE A VORTEX ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE SYSTEM...AND THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS ONLY INITIALIZE A WEAK\r\nVORTEX...PROBABLY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE.  AS A RESULT...THIS FIRST\r\nFORECAST HAS A HIGH LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLEANS HEAVILY ON THE GFDL AND HWRF HURRICANE MODEL TRACKS AND DOES\r\nNOT SHOW THE DEPRESSION GAINING MUCH LATITUDE.\r\n\r\nTHE SMALL SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY CAUSE IT TO HAVE QUICK\r\nCHANGES IN INTENSITY...MUCH LIKE THAT OBSERVED IN HURRICANE CARLOS\r\nEARLIER THIS SEASON.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW\r\nMUCH STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN IN THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS. \r\nIT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME AT ALL IF T.D. NINE-E WAS TO STRENGTHEN\r\nMORE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SEVERAL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM FORMING NEAR 138W IN ABOUT THREE\r\nTO FOUR DAYS AND EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS\r\nMIGHT BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING SHOWN IN THE MODELS AT DAYS\r\n4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 14.0N 120.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 14.2N 121.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 14.5N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.9N 124.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 16.0N 131.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 139.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 09 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.  MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING SEEN EARLY TODAY HAS DISSIPATED...WHILE A SOMEWHAT SHAPELESS\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  \r\n\r\nLATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND\r\nWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION...HOWEVER AT VARYING FORWARD SPEEDS.  THE\r\nNHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO AN\r\nAREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND A\r\nUW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSE ABOUT 15 KT OF SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT MODERATE WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE PATH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  BECAUSE OF THIS...MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 14.8N 121.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.0N 122.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 15.4N 124.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.8N 126.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.2N 128.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.9N 131.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 135.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2009\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A SMALL AND \r\nAMORPHOUS MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH A SHARP WESTERN EDGE.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN THE SAME AS 6 HOURS AGO...2.0 AND 2.5 FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING HELD AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7...A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFROM THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE\r\nTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC.  MODEL GUIDANCE...TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS...SHOWS THIS FEATURE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A COURSE JUST NORTH OF\r\nDUE WEST.  WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAVORS A\r\nCONTINUED WESTERLY OR WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION BEYOND 48 HOURS...\r\nSOME MODELS...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF...SUGGEST A POSSIBLE\r\nINTERACTION WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING CLOSE TO 140W.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES LITTLE WEIGHT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE\r\nTIME BEING AND ESSENTIALLY REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS INDICATE MODEST\r\nWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IMPACTING THE CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHE RESULTING SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG\r\n125W.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE TO NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM.  THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT\r\nWESTWARD AND DEGENERATE INTO A SHEAR AXIS IN THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS...ALLOWING A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION. \r\nHOWEVER...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO GRADUALLY COOL ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AROUND THIS TIME...AND THE MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nSHEAR MAY AGAIN INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER COMPARED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 14.9N 122.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 15.1N 123.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.0N 126.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 16.4N 128.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N 132.3W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 136.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 10 2009\r\n \r\nAMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT\r\nTHE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF\r\nT.D. NINE-E...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nMORE ILL-DEFINED. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0549 UTC CONFIRMED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...AND SINCE THE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS NOT IMPROVED SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND FROM\r\nPREVIOUS RUNS. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nLOCATED NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL THAT TIME. THIS IS DELAYED\r\nCOMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL SOONER THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ONCE\r\nAGAIN INCREASE BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATERS BY THAT TIME. AS SUCH...THE MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY IS CAPPED AT 40 KT WITH WEAKENING ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5.\r\nTHE GFS AND GFDL ACTUALLY LOSE THE VORTEX BEFORE THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nLAST FIVE DAYS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/08...AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO. THE MODEL SPREAD IS SMALL THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...WHICH TURNS THE DEPRESSION SOUTHWEST AND\r\nDISSIPATES IT. SEVERAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING ANOTHER SYSTEM\r\nDEVELOPING WEST OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR 138W IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS IS RESPONDING BY SHOWING A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nBY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 14.9N 123.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.1N 124.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 126.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 15.9N 127.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.2N 129.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 133.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 137.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009\r\n \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 18 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS\r\nTAKEN A TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nEXPOSED FOR A TIME TO THE WEST OF BURSTING DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ANY\r\nAPPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION AS IT PREDICTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE TEMPORARILY BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS.\r\nMOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWS FURTHER WEAKENING OR DISSIPATION\r\nAT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS\r\nCOULD OCCUR EVEN EARLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTH OF WEST FOR THE LAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS...BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT\r\n275/10. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW NATURE OF THE SYSTEM...THERE IS LITTLE REASON\r\nFOR THE SYSTEM TO GAIN MUCH LATITUDE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SOUTHWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION DEVELOPING LATE IN THE PERIOD...IF THE CYCLONE\r\nSURVIVES THAT LONG. THE FORWARD SPEED IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 15.1N 124.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 15.2N 125.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 15.4N 127.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.6N 129.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.6N 131.3W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 15.5N 135.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2009\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR.  MORE RECENTLY THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND IS EXHIBITING\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE.  HOWEVER...THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nBOTH AGENCIES ARE 2.0...WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT\r\n30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY PASSING NEAR THE BASE OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHEAR.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES WEST OF THE\r\nTROUGH AXIS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DECREASE \r\nAND TURN NORTHEASTERLY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A \r\nRELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nTHE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND MANY SHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE FUTURE OF DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON ITS\r\nSURVIVAL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THEREAFTER THE MODELS WHICH WEAKEN THE CYCLONE\r\nTURN IT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND NOT GAIN MUCH LATITUDE. \r\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 15.1N 125.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.3N 126.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 128.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 15.6N 130.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 15.6N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N 136.3W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 140.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DEEP CONVECTION ARE NOT VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE-LOOKING.  AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A\r\nFEW TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND VECTORS BUT THOSE APPEARED TO BE\r\nRAIN-CONTAMINATED.  A MORE RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nOF 30 KT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW\r\nTHIS TROUGH WEAKENING AND UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPING\r\nOVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48-72 HOURS.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER CALLS FOR WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION\r\nAS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...BUT IS BELOW THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL...THAT HAS THE MOST\r\nROBUST INITIALIZATION OF NINE-E...CONTINUE TO FORECAST WEAKENING. \r\nIT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE BEEN\r\nOUR MOST RELIABLE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD NEAR 10 KT...ABOUT THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE.  THE COMBINATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOSTLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODELS SHOW A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...WHICH IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED JUST A SMIDGEN TO THE SOUTH.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 15.1N 126.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 15.1N 127.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 15.1N 129.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 131.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.0N 133.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 15.0N 137.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 15.0N 141.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 15.0N 145.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nNINE-E HAS AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON AN\r\nEARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD PATH DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  ONE POTENTIAL PROBLEM IS THAT SOME OF THE MODELS\r\nFORECAST A DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nDEVELOP...THUS POSSIBLY CAUSING ERRATIC MOTION AS THE TWO SYSTEMS\r\nINTERACT.  SINCE THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGNS OF\r\nDEVELOPMENT...THE FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION WILL CALL FOR A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HR AND A RESULTING LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THIS\r\nSUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SYSTEM WEAK...WITH ONLY THE HWRF\r\nCURRENTLY CALLING FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KT.  BASED\r\nON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IF THE DISTURBANCE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST DEVELOPS...IT COULD ABSORB TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 15.1N 127.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 15.1N 128.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 15.1N 130.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.0N 134.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 15.0N 138.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 142.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N 146.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nNINE-E IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH THE CENTER OCCASIONALLY COVERED\r\nBY OUTFLOW FROM PUFFS OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. \r\nOVERALL...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER... WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT IT IS IN AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND\r\nDRY AIR.  THIS COULD BE RESTRICTING THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION AT THE MOMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD PATH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MODELS RESPONSE TO THE\r\nINTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION...THE LARGE DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF\r\nSOCORRO ISLAND...AND A PERTURBATION IN THE ITCZ NEAR 8N123W.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET STILL\r\nFORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THAT INTERACTION APPEARS UNLIKELY.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS TO BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS\r\nLOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD...IN THEORY...BE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE CURRENT POOR\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 15.1N 128.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 130.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.0N 132.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 14.9N 134.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.7N 136.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 14.5N 140.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 14.0N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 14.0N 147.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A RATHER POORLY-ORGANIZED DEPRESSION THIS\r\nEVENING. THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS THAT WERE INTERMITTENT DURING THE\r\nDAY HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY\r\nDECREASED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT DRY AIR AND NOT SHEAR IS WHAT HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE\r\nCYCLONE TODAY. HOWEVER...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS COULD\r\nBECOME FAVORABLE FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL BRING THE CYCLONE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTHEN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nSTRENGTHENING THE DEPRESSION TO AROUND 50 KT IN 4-5 DAYS. DESPITE\r\nTHE RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN LINE\r\nWITH MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PREDICT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTO BEGIN IN A DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT\r\nREDEVELOP TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 265/11. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND NOW UNANIMOUSLY TURNS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nREMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 14.9N 130.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 131.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 14.7N 133.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 14.4N 135.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 14.1N 137.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 13.6N 140.7W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 13.5N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 13.5N 147.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS HANGING ON AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS\r\nTIME...WITH A FEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY EAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE AREA HAS RELAXED...IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT IN A VERY\r\nFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  IF THE DEPRESSION IS ABLE TO\r\nSURVIVE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER CONDITIONS MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON\r\nTHIS PREMISE...BUT...GIVEN THE LOWLY CURRENT STATE OF THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT HIGH.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST\r\nMOTION...ABOUT 265/11.  A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST-ORIENTED\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...ALONG WITH\r\nBROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...SEEM TO\r\nBE CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS FOR A MAINTENANCE OF A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  HENCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4-5.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK IS JUST A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE ONE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 14.7N 131.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N 132.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 14.4N 134.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 14.1N 136.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 13.7N 138.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 13.0N 141.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 12.5N 144.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 13.0N 147.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE THIS MORNING WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...WHICH IS MAINTAINING JUST ENOUGH CONVECTION TO KEEP IT\r\nFROM BEING CONSIDERED A REMNANT LOW.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND\r\nWHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT.  NEVERTHELESS...THE STATISTICAL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AS DOES THE GFDL.  IN THE CASE OF SHIPS THE\r\nDRIVING PREDICTOR IS THE SST POTENTIAL...BUT THIS IS IN FACT NO\r\nLESS FAVORABLE NOW THAN IT WILL BE IN FIVE DAYS...SO I AM\r\nSKEPTICAL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT THE POSSIBILITY\r\nOF SOME STRENGTHENING AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AID ICON.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE TRACK BECOMES\r\nLESS CLEAR BEYOND THAT POINT...AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN\r\nEXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENCOUNTERS SOME UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW.  OF COURSE...THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE SIGNIFICANT\r\nENOUGH OR DEEP ENOUGH TO FEEL THESE INFLUENCES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT\r\nMUCH CHANGE IN DIRECTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET\r\nAND HWRF.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW AN\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO ITS\r\nEAST...AND CONSEQUENTLY INDICATE A MUCH SHARPER SLOWDOWN AND TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 14.6N 132.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 14.4N 134.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N 136.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 13.5N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 13.2N 139.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 13.0N 142.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 145.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 13.0N 148.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-08-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL...THE MOST RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nREQUIRES THAT THE WINDS BE ADJUSTED TO 30 KT.  THE QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nALSO REVEALED THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE STARTING TO LOSE\r\nDEFINITION.  BETWEEN THE LIMITED CONVECTION AND THE MARGINAL\r\nCIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR\r\nDISSIPATE AT ANY TIME.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL ALL INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL RESTRENGTHEN...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW\r\nDISSIPATION.  AS NOTED EARLIER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE IMMEDIATE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS FAIRLY DRY...AND\r\nWHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT CONVERGENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW FAVORS\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL...AND HWRF...SOLUTIONS AND NO LONGER SHOWS\r\nREDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS ALSO A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...BAM SHALLOW AND GFDL SHOWING A SLOW MOTION AND\r\nEVENTUAL INTERACTION WITH THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY RELATIVE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BEYOND 48 HOURS BUT IS STILL MUCH FASTER THAN THIS\r\nGROUP OF MODELS.  THE ALTERNATIVE...AND NOW LESS FAVORED SOLUTION\r\nOF A CONTINUED BRISK WESTWARD TRACK...IS OFFERED BY THE\r\nUKMET...GFDN/NOGAPS...AND BAM DEEP.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 14.1N 133.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 134.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 13.2N 136.3W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 12.7N 138.1W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 12.5N 139.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N 140.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 12.5N 142.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 12.5N 143.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP092009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092009\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nCORRECTED FOR HIGH SEAS HEADERS IN LAST PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND THE SHOWER\r\nACTIVITY IS MINIMAL. THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME ELONGATED. \r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS NOW A REMNANT LOW BUT IT COULD STILL BE ABLE TO\r\nTRIGGER A FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST ABOUT 8 TO 10 KNOTS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF RE-GENERATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IF IT DOES...ADVISORIES WILL BE\r\nRE-INITIATED BUT FOR NOW...THIS IS THE LAST ONE.  FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 13.9N 134.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 13.5N 135.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 13.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 12.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 12.5N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-12 16:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n900 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT PASS AT 13Z INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nSEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING INITIATED.  THE QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/14...BUT IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO\r\nA LACK OF GOOD HISTORY ON THE CENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE STEERING OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING WESTWARD WITH THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT EASTERLY. \r\nTHIS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND HWRF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW\r\nAS MUCH DECAY AS SHIPS LATE IN THE PERIOD BECAUSE THAT MODEL WAS\r\nBASED ON THE BAMM TRACK...WHICH LIES WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1600Z 15.3N 116.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 118.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.6N 120.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 17.4N 126.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 131.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXHIBITING GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE...ALBEIT AT A\r\nLARGE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER...AND INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW\r\nALOFT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0\r\nFROM SAB.  GIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...I AM\r\nINCLINED TO KEEP THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT...ALTHOUGH IT\r\nSHOULD NOT BE LONG BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM.  SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK DROP BELOW 26C BY 72\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE SYSTEM AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/15. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DOMINATE THE\r\nSTEERING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS AND MOVING\r\nWESTWARD WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 15.8N 117.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.5N 119.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N 122.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.5N 125.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.8N 128.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N 139.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 12 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nCONSISTS OF WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED\r\nPRIMARILY ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nOF 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITH AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT.   GUILLERMO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO GAIN SOME\r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR IN ABOUT\r\nTWO TO THREE DAYS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.\r\n\r\nGUILLERMO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP \r\nLAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND\r\nPERHAPS BECOME EVEN MORE EASTERLY BEYOND THREE DAYS. GUILLERMO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A SMALL BEND TO THE\r\nWEST DURING THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST\r\nLIES IN THE MIDDLE OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 16.2N 119.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.1N 123.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.5N 126.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.5N 134.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 140.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 18.5N 147.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2009\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MICROWAVE\r\nAND SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALING A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT\r\nWRAPS MORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.0...WHICH SUPPORTS RAISING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT.  GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A\r\nLOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...DURING THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATER.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY IN 24 TO 36 HOURS OF\r\nAROUND 65 KT...WHILE THE GFDL SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE\r\nSOLUTIONS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS GUILLERMO JUST BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE SHOWS THAT\r\nGUILLERMO HAS ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING A HURRICANE AT THE\r\n36 OR 48 HOUR FORECAST TIMES.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS UNCHANGED AT\r\n290/14. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND \r\nBUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO \r\nTURN THE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH A LITTLE MORE SPREAD THEREAFTER. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 16.9N 120.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 17.2N 122.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.6N 125.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.0N 127.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N 130.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.1N 135.8W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 141.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 147.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 13 2009\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE FORMATION OF A\r\nTRANSIENT EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITHIN A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHESE INCREASES IN ORGANIZATION SUGGEST GUILLERMO IS LIKELY\r\nAPPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 3.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 285/12. NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AS GUILLERMO CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO AROUND\r\n140W. MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY SMALL DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE MODEL SOLUTIONS\r\nDIVERGE AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH\r\nTHAN THE HWRF AND GFDL.  THE LIKELY CAUSE FOR THIS IS AN\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN GUILLERMO AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E.\r\nWHILE THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS AS A MORE REMOTE\r\nPOSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nGIVEN RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES...IT MIGHT NOT BE LONG TILL\r\nGUILLERMO BECOMES A HURRICANE.  THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 26.5C IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO INCREASE AROUND THIS TIME.  BASED UPON THESE\r\nFACTORS...IT APPEARS THAT GUILLERMO WILL HAVE A NARROW WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGUILLERMO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND BEGIN TO\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING TREND...AND IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT GUILLERMO COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST BEYOND\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 17.1N 121.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 123.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.9N 126.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.3N 129.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 131.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N 143.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 148.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.  BANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND IS\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  IN FACT...THE EARLIER\r\nSSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A BANDING EYE FEATURE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH ALSO IS SUPPORTED\r\nBY A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...ALL INDICATING STRENGTHENING TO A LOW END\r\nHURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AND MAINTAINING THIS INTENSITY THROUGH THE 36\r\nHOUR PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER COOLER\r\nWATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nRIDGE MAINTAINING STRENGTH AND A GENERAL EAST-WEST ORIENTATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST IS\r\nINDICATED AS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 17.2N 123.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 17.6N 125.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.2N 127.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.8N 130.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 19.4N 133.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 139.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 21.0N 149.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2009\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE DEVELOPED\r\nEARLIER TODAY...INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE RAGGED APPEARANCE\r\nWITH ONE WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  A RECENT PARTIAL SSMI PASS SUGGESTS THAT A\r\nCONVECTIVE RING HAS ENCIRCLED THE CENTER...AND THIS COULD BE A SIGN\r\nTHAT GUILLERMO IS READY TO STRENGTHEN.  DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nT4.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5 FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nJUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS AT 60 KT.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN LOW FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO...BUT SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED TO FALL FROM 27C\r\nTO NEAR 24C OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL\r\nSHOWS GUILLERMO BECOMING A HURRICANE SOON...BUT THEN SHOWS STEADY\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 36 HOURS.  THIS SCENARIO IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/13.  GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO ONCE IT BECOMES\r\nPOSITIONED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  ALL OF THE NUMERICAL\r\nMODELS...AS WELL AS BAM SHALLOW...INDICATE THAT THIS MOTION WILL\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD EVEN AFTER GUILLERMO WEAKENS\r\nAND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THIS IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 4.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nTHEREFORE SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 TOWARDS THE\r\nTIGHT MODEL CLUSTERING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 17.2N 124.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N 126.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.2N 129.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 131.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 134.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 140.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N 145.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 150.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON THE APPEARANCE\r\nOF AN EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 0151 UTC SSMIS PASS AND A\r\n0218 UTC AMSU PASS...ALONG WITH CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT APPARENT IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED\r\nON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CDO BETWEEN TWO CURVED BANDS OF COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN\r\nOVER SSTS ABOVE 26C FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO SOME SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING A\r\nGRADUAL SPIN DOWN AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS\r\nAND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES. THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS BELOW ICON AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...AS THE HWRF AND ESPECIALLY THE GFDL SEEM TOO SLOW TO\r\nWEAKEN GUILLERMO GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED AT THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM A 0259 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS SHOW THAT GUILLERMO IS LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n280/13. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GUILLERMO\r\nIS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE THAT DEVELOPS EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAYS\r\n4 AND 5. THEREFORE...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD...EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER\r\nSYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A\r\nNORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM THE\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 17.6N 125.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.9N 127.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N 130.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 133.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N 135.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N 151.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT GUILLERMO IS A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THIS MORNING.  BANDING OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...INDICATIVE OF AN\r\nEARLIER TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTING A WELL-DEFINED BANDING EYE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...SUPPORTED BY DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITIES AND 70 KT ESTIMATES FROM A RECENT AMSU\r\nOVERPASS AND AN EARLIER UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND THE 24 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM TRAVERSES\r\nOVER COOLER WATER AND WITHIN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...LGEM...AND SHIPS\r\nOVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE FORECAST IS HEDGED\r\nCLOSER TO THE SHIPS WHICH REFLECTS A MORE REASONABLE WEAKENING\r\nTREND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 280/14...WITHIN THE PERIPHERAL\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH\r\nTHE ENTIRE 5 DAY FORECAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED TOGETHER...BUT DO INDICATE SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN FOREWORD\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE TVCN MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nON DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED BASED ON DATA FROM AN\r\nASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 17.8N 127.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.2N 129.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 132.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N 134.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N 137.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 142.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 22.6N 147.7W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N 152.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE UPPER\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE WEST\r\nTO NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.  A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES\r\nSUGGEST THAT INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 85 KT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOLLOWS SUIT.  SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE COOLER WATER BEGINS TO\r\nAFFECT THE SYSTEM.  AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO SPIN DOWN\r\nDUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BEYOND THE 24 HOUR...WHICH IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD.  THE LARGE-SCALE AND\r\nHURRICANE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 17.9N 128.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 130.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.8N 133.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 136.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 138.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 144.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N 149.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.5N 154.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO...WITH MANY OF THE STRUCTURAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF A MATURE HURRICANE.  THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED\r\nA RAGGED...BANDING-TYPE EYE SINCE EARLIER TODAY...THOUGH IT HAS\r\nRECENTLY BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...TWO WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nBANDS ARE COILING AROUND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. EVEN THOUGH\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 4.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 00\r\nUTC...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF GUILLERMO HAS IMPROVED IN THE\r\nLAST HOUR OR TWO. BASED UPON ITS MOST RECENT SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/14...ESSENTIALLY NO\r\nDIFFERENT THAN BEFORE.  GUILLERMO IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EAST PACIFIC PAST 140W.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY...WITH THIS FEATURE\r\nFORECAST TO KEEP GUILLERMO ON A TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHICH SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS\r\nEDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH BEYOND 72 HOURS...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nAFORMENTIONED WEAKNESS.\r\n \r\nLAST VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW GUILLERMO PUSHING INTO A DENSE FIELD OF\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS...INDICATIVE OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT.  THIS IS THE MAIN FACTOR WHICH SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...EVEN WHILE\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.  THEREAFTER...\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A RETROGRADING MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AROUND 150-160W SHOULD ACCELERATE THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND. GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN\r\nFORECAST IF THE SHEAR IS AS HIGH AS SHIP MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 18.3N 130.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-15 05:30:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n1030 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GUILLERMO HAS INTENSIFIED QUICKLY\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE NOW COMPLETELY\r\nSURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. A SPECIAL\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AT 0430 UTC GAVE A T-NUMBER OF\r\n5.5...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGE IN INITIAL INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS...AND\r\nA MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE\r\nMARKEDLY BY 36 HOURS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AS IS THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS MODIFIED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0530Z 18.4N 130.8W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N 132.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.3N 135.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 137.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 140.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.2N 145.3W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 24.0N 150.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 26.0N 156.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GUILLERMO REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CLARITY OF THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS VARIED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 5.5 FROM TAFB AND 5.0 FROM SAB\r\nAT 0600 UTC...WHILE THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES REMAIN\r\nAROUND 6.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100 KT AS A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL THE CYCLONE IS NOW OVER SSTS OF LESS\r\nTHAN 26C...AND WILL CROSS THE 25C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING LATER\r\nTODAY...AND MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING ABOVE 20 KT AFTER THAT\r\nTIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND LGEM AT\r\nDAY 3 AND BEYOND...AS THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE UNREALISTICALLY\r\nINTENSE WITH THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME RANGE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN\r\nISLANDS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...TOWARD THE\r\nTVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0230 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AND A 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 18.7N 131.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 134.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.8N 136.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.4N 139.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.2N 141.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 146.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 25.0N 151.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 27.5N 157.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE OF GUILLERMO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS\r\nMORNING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS ALSO SUGGEST\r\nTHE EYE NO LONGER CLOUD-FILLED.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE OVERALL IMPROVEMENT OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN FROM 6 HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 110 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF MAINTAINING THE CYCLONE AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE\r\nFOR A BIT LONGER.  BEYOND THE 12 HOUR PERIOD...A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN...WITH A FASTER SPIN DOWN EXPECTED THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST USES THE ICON\r\nBLEND...GFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND HWRF...FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARD...TO SHOW A MORE REALISTIC WEAKENING...A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM IS RELIED ON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/13. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nWITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM\r\nMEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  HURRICANE GUILLERMO\r\nSHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION INTO A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON DAYS 4 AND\r\n5.  THE ADVISORY IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND JUST TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 18.9N 133.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 135.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.2N 137.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 140.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.9N 142.8W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 24.0N 148.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 26.0N 153.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 28.5N 159.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 15 2009\r\n \r\nGUILLERMO HAS MAINTAINED ITS CONVECTIVE VIGOR OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND...IF ANYTHING...HAS DEVELOPED A MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST SINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  A RATHER DISTINCT...\r\nCLOUD-FILLED EYE IS ALSO OBSERVED...ALONG WITH A NUMBER OF\r\nREASONABLY WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES.  SINCE 1800 UTC...DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF GUILLERMO HAS AT LEAST\r\nPERSISTED. BASED UPON THESE DATA AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AS\r\nHIGH AS 5.6 FROM UW CIMSS ADT ANALYSES...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 95 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/13...REPRESENTING A SLIGHTLY\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME.  GUILLERMO IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES\r\nWESTWARD IN THE EAST PACIFIC TO PAST 140W.  THIS WEATHER SYSTEM HAS\r\nAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP GUILLERMO ON A STABLE...WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A RETROGRADING\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF GUILLERMO BY IMPARTING A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. TOWARD THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GUIDE A WEAKENING\r\nGUILLERMO ON ESSENTIALLY THE SAME TRACK.\r\n \r\nUNDER VERY LIGHT SHEAR...GUILLERMO HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS\r\nINTENSITY IN SPITE OF MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY HOSTILE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WITHIN 24 HOURS AND EVEN COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN A DECIDED WEAKENING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH ICON AND LGEM AND CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPER\r\nENSEMBLE...CALLING FOR GUILLERMO TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4\r\nAND TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 19.7N 135.9W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.3N 137.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N 140.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 143.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 23.1N 145.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 25.5N 151.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 28.0N 156.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 30.5N 162.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nFINAL-T DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN TO T4.5...AND\r\nTHE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS T4.7.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 85 KT.  GUILLERMO HAS BEEN\r\nREMARKABLY TOUGH IN WITHSTANDING THE 24.5C WATER IT IS NOW\r\nOVER...BUT THE HURRICANE WILL SOON HAVE TO ALSO CONTEND WITH\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS FAIRLY\r\nQUICK WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH GUILLERMO\r\nBECOMING A REMNANT LOW NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITHIN 96\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13.  GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WHILE COMING UNDER GREATER INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR HAWAII OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N 137.4W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N 139.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.2N 142.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 22.2N 144.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 23.3N 147.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 26.0N 153.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 29.0N 159.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nGUILLERMO IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO\r\nFEEL THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE EYE REMAINS\r\nDISTINCT AND RECENTLY THE EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS INCREASED A BIT. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 85 KT.  A RAPID WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY FOR GUILLERMO BY TONIGHT DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ITS CONTINUED PASSAGE OVER COOL WATERS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  GUILLERMO SHOULD TRANSITION TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nGUILLERMO STEERING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST PATH FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR\r\nHAWAII WILL LIKELY CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH VERY FEW CHANGES IN MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE NOTED.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 20.1N 138.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 140.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.6N 143.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 22.7N 146.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 24.0N 149.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 27.0N 155.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 31.0N 162.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP102009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2009\r\n \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING A TOLL ON GUILLERMO...AS\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING ONLY A FAINT EYE AND AN ASYMMETRIC\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT. \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSING 30 KT\r\nOF SHEAR BEGINNING OVERNIGHT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nHWRF/SHIPS/LGEM.  THE GFDL UNREALISTICALLY RE-INTENSIFIES THE\r\nVORTEX AT THE END OF PERIOD AND IS DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH AND IS NOW 285/12. GUILLERMO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL BEND FROM A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO A NORTHWEST TRACK AND SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC FORECAST. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION BY SOME MODELS THAT WHATEVER\r\nIS LEFT OF GUILLERMO MIGHT MOVE MORE A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST AT\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION AT 96 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP4 AND WMO HEADER\r\nWTPA44 PHFO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 20.4N 139.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 141.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 22.0N 144.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 23.3N 147.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 24.8N 150.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 28.5N 157.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 31.5N 164.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1350 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS MAINTAINED A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION DURING\r\nTHE LAST 24 HOURS...WITH PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION COINCIDING WITH\r\nTHE DIURNAL NOCTURNAL MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...MORE RECENTLY A DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS PERSISTED FOR SOME TIME OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...EVEN PARTIALLY COVERING WHAT WAS EARLIER AN EXPOSED\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...AN EXPANDING CIRRUS CANOPY IS\r\nEVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTIVE OF A BETTER ESTABLISHED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. SINCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT\r\nAND THERE HAS BEEN A FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THIS SYSTEM\r\nCAN NOW BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. BASED UPON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 2.0 AND AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND 72 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NORTH OF HAWAII SHOULD\r\nLIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC.  THESE TWO FEATURES SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT\r\nTO MOVE ON A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT BY SHOWING A SLOWER-MOVING CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.  ON THE CURRENT TRACK...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD\r\nPASS 140W AND ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF\r\nRESPONSIBILITY IN APPROXIMATELY 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  EVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO HAMPER DEVELOPMENT AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO\r\nINTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...THERE IS SOME\r\nINDICATION THAT THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE...WHICH COULD LEAVE SOME\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCONSERVATIVE AND INCREASES THE INTENSITY ON DAYS 4 AND 5...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON AND LGEM.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 13.6N 136.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.7N 138.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.1N 139.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N 141.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.0N 142.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 15.5N 146.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 149.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA/READ\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112009\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE HILDA\r\nLIES NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN STRENGTH AND\r\nCOVERAGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AS THE DIURNAL MINIMUM APPROACHES.\r\nEARLIER...A 1534 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE\r\n30-35 KT WINDS IMMEDIATELY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS NEAR TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH AT THAT TIME. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5\r\nAT 1800 UTC...AND SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY...WHICH IS SET AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 275/09. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSHOW THAT THE CYCLONE LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN EDGE OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD\r\nSTEER HILDA ON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nAROUND 72 HOURS...A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nDIG SOUTHWARD ALONG 135W...WHICH SHOULD TEMPORARILY WEAKEN\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF HILDA. AS A RESULT...THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nOF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW IN A WEAKER DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY\r\nFLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nHILDA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. EVEN THOUGH WATERS REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY\r\nWARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD BE\r\nENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. TOWARD THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD\r\nDECREASE...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 13.6N 137.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 13.8N 139.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N 140.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.5N 142.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 14.9N 144.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 147.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N 150.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N 153.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112009\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 22 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HILDA HAS NOT BEEN VERY IMPRESSIVE\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS THE CENTER HAS BEEN EXPOSED MOST\r\nOF THE TIME. HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING TO THE NORTH\r\nAND WEST OF THE CENTER AND AN EARLIER ASCAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 1912\r\nUTC INDICATED THAT THE WINDS WERE NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT THAT\r\nTIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB AND THE ASCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR HILDA IS A BIT PERPLEXING...WITH LOTS OF\r\nMIXED SIGNALS. ON ONE HAND...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nMODERATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD HINDER DEVELOPMENT.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOW SOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF HILDA...WHICH COULD PREVENT SUSTAINED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DESPITE THE\r\nMARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH EVERY MODEL CLOSE TO OR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nBY 120 HOURS. IF THIS SYSTEM SURVIVES THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING\r\nAND A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR AFTER THAT TIME.\r\nGIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LOWER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/08. WEAK RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO STEER\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE DAY OR SO UNTIL\r\nHILDA ENCOUNTERS A TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 145W. A DEEPER SYSTEM MIGHT\r\nTURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH...BUT HILDA IS\r\nNOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AT THAT TIME.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT OF THE REGION WITH\r\nWEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD NORTHWEST OF\r\nHILDA...CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT\r\nHILDA REMAINS WEAK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A HAIR SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 3 DAYS AND BASICALLY THE SAME\r\nTHEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 13.6N 138.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.7N 139.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.1N 141.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N 143.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 14.8N 144.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 15.0N 148.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 15.0N 154.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112009\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF HILDA REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nTHIS EVENING...SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  FURTHERMORE...ENHANCED\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES VERY COLD CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDING FEATURE AND A FEW RECENT BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN\r\nAND A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  THE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE UPPER\r\nWIND PATTERN WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nDUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS...SIMILAR TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/8...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nEASTERLY FLOW OF A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.  A MID- TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW A BIT AND\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFDL/GFS AND ECMWF...AROUND MID-PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...RIDGING IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWEST OF HILDA IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH FILLING AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE\r\nAREA.  THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN NEAR DAY 3 IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND COINCIDES WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 13.7N 139.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 13.9N 140.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N 142.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 14.6N 144.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 14.8N 145.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 15.0N 152.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 15.0N 155.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP112009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112009\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 23 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF HILDA HAS REMAINED PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF A\r\nPULSATING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION MOST OF THE NIGHT.  MORE\r\nRECENTLY...HOWEVER...A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS OVERSPREAD THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n3.0 AT 1200 UTC...THERE HAS BEEN A GENERAL LACK OF IMPROVEMENT IN\r\nORGANIZATION.  FOR THIS REASON...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nHELD AT 40 KT.  MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS PERSISTED OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO\r\nINHIBIT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME...DESPITE\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS\r\nOFF A PIECE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W AND DIGS ITS\r\nSOUTHWARD EAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO PRODUCE A WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER HILDA LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR\r\nONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING...IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT YIELD AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/08. A WEAK BUT DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN GUIDING HILDA ON AN ALMOST\r\nDUE-WEST COURSE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC FEATURE NEAR 23N148W TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...KEEPING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HILDA WEAK OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AS A RESULT...HILDA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW\r\nBUT GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE. THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE INCREASES AS SEVERAL MODELS KEEP A WEAK STEERING REGIME\r\nOVER HILDA...WHILE THE GFDL/HWRF BUILD A STRONGER RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND MOVE HILDA FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFUTURE ADVISORIES ON HILDA WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCDCP5 AND WMO HEADER WTPA45\r\nPHFO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 13.8N 140.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N 141.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.2N 143.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 144.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.8N 146.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N 149.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 15.0N 155.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009\r\n \r\nCORRECTED AWIPS BIN NUMBER\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nLOCATED SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTODAY. A CURVED BAND FEATURE HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nINCREASED. ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE NOT BEEN DEPICTING A\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ANIMATION OF VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOW BECOMING BETTER ESTABLISHED.\r\nTHEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT\r\nTHIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE AND SHOWS STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BY 48\r\nHOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26 DEG C SST\r\n...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCING\r\nAROUND THAT TIME. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE\r\nOVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL NOT THAT WELL-DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nA MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S.\r\nWESTWARD TO NEAR 125-130 W OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE TRACK\r\nMODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS INDICATED BY DAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nREDUCED TO A WEAK AND SHALLOW REMNANT DISTURBANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 16.3N 117.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.7N 118.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.4N 120.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.4N 122.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.7N 123.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 22.8N 126.8W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE CURVED BAND TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED...SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO.\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION REMAINS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...AND THE\r\nPOSITION GIVEN HERE IS LIKELY A MEAN POSITION OF SEVERAL SWIRLS\r\nROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER. A 2056 UTC AMSR-E PASS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THIS MEAN CENTER IS PROBABLY A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CONSEQUENTLY\r\nBEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 290/09...BUT IGNACIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST OF NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\nONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH 120 HOURS...AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nIGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER THAT IS AT LEAST 26 DEG CELSIUS\r\nFOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nLIGHT...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS AT\r\nTHE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS. WHILE THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS...AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL LGEM...ONLY STRENGTHEN IGNACIO\r\nTO ABOUT 40-45 KT...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST IS NOT\r\nBEING LOWERED...SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD\r\nSUPPORT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 17.0N 117.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.4N 119.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.1N 120.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N 122.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.8N 124.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 26.5N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 27.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES RECEIVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO WAS A LITTLE BIT TO\r\nTHE NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND REMOVED FROM THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...A NEW AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY\r\nDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE ONLY...SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE NOT CHANGED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  IN FACT...AN ASCAT PASS\r\nJUST CAME IN AND SHOWS 35-KT WINDS...THE DATA HELPED TO ADJUST THE\r\nINITIAL WIND RADII.  IGNACIO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GATHER SOME\r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER... A WEAKENING IS INDICATED AND BY DAYS 4 AND 5\r\nIGNACIO SHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nWITH THE SMALL RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n295 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS...WHICH IS NOT TOO\r\nDIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION. IGNACIO IS ALREADY ON\r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHILE A LARGE MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IS APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN\r\nCALLS FOR IGNACIO TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...IGNACIO SHOULD TURN TO THE WEST\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW.\r\nTHIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A LITTLE BIT DUE TO\r\nTHE SMALL RELOCATION OF THE CENTER AND NOT BECAUSE OF A CHANGE IN\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 18.1N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 19.7N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N 123.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.0N 125.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 26.5N 128.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 28.0N 135.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGNACIO APPEARS DISORGANIZED...WITH THE CENTER\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AMORPHOUS MASS OF VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIRLY\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...IT REMAINS SOMEWHAT\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE NORTH.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO\r\nT3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. \r\nIGNACIO STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS WHILE IT TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS\r\nRELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA 1158 UTC TRMM PASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER.  WHILE\r\nSTILL UNCERTAIN...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED.  IGNACIO IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nSOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE EAST PACIFIC TO NEAR 130W.  A WEAK\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEPENING EAST\r\nPACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA LONGWAVE TROUGH...KEEPING A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN PLACE ALONG 130W.  THIS SHOULD HELP STEER\r\nIGNACIO ON A NORTHWESTERLY COURSE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOWARD\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME A MORE WESTERLY\r\nTRACK ONCE IGNACIO WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK DIFFERS LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 18.6N 119.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 19.4N 120.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 20.8N 122.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 22.3N 124.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 24.0N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WALTON\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGNACIO\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH SOME HINT OF THE BEGINNING STAGE\r\nOF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING. EVEN THOUGH THE NORTHWEST\r\nSEMICIRCLE IS VOID OF DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUDS...A WELL-DEFINED BAND\r\nIS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN\r\nAT T3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 45 KT.  A 1417 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED A FEW\r\nUNCONTAMINATED 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS...WHICH AGREE WELL WITH THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN\r\nRELATIVELY LIGHT...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING WILL\r\nBE CLOSING SOON SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN OVER 26.5C WATERS\r\nFOR LESS THAN 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING...AND IGNACIO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES HAVE\r\nYIELDED FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ESTIMATES OF THE CENTER LOCATION.\r\nBASED UPON THOSE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  IGNACIO\r\nSHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COURSE AS IT MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nSOUTHERN UNITED STATES INTO THE EAST PACIFIC TO NEAR 130W.  TOWARD\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME A MORE WESTERLY\r\nTRACK ONCE IGNACIO WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK DIFFERS LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 19.4N 120.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 20.4N 121.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 21.9N 123.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 23.6N 125.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 25.2N 127.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2009\r\n \r\nIGNACIO NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND CURLING AROUND THE EASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS MOSTLY VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION...AND\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECK OF LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BEING\r\nADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH.  AN ASCAT PASS AT\r\n1809 UTC INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nPRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS AT THE TIME WERE 45 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THIS COULD BE GENEROUS NOW\r\nTHAT THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF IGNACIO IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nNEAR 26C...AND THE SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY SEVERAL DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. \r\nCOMBINED WITH THE INGESTION OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE IGNACIO TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  SOME\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...HOLDS IGNACIO\r\nAT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT THIS\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND\r\nSHOWS IGNACIO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS THEN DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED FOR AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/13. \r\nIGNACIO IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT ONCE IT WEAKENS\r\nIT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE WEST WITHIN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 20.4N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 21.5N 123.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 24.8N 127.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 26.3N 128.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 27.5N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SHAPE OF A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT AND\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY\r\nCONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR EARLIER.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST\r\nAT 12 KNOTS. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE SHALLOW\r\nREMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 21.1N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.2N 124.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009\r\n \r\nTHE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF IGNACIO HAVE SEPARATED DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY WERE CRUCIAL\r\nIN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING.  MORE\r\nRECENTLY...THE CENTER IS BECOMING APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS ABOUT 120 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nREMAINING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nTHAT HAVE DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES.  IGNACIO IS ALREADY\r\nOVER SUB 26C SSTS AND IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATER.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IGNACIO IS FORECAST\r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nMORE WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE\r\nWESTWARD INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 21.6N 124.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 127.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.1N 129.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 27.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A\r\nWEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY\r\nAFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED SOME RELIABLE\r\n40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS\r\nTHAT WAS JUST RECEIVED SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT BUT DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nA BLEND OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nYIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.\r\nIGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURN WEST IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LIES\r\nA LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT\r\nAND ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 22.1N 124.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 23.3N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 25.0N 128.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 26.4N 129.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO HAS DISSIPATED\r\nAND WHAT LITTLE REMAINS IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nIS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS\r\nAND THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS.  IGNACIO SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTO A DEPRESSION TOMORROW AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND THE MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY.  IGNACIO IS MOVING ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH.  AS THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 23.4N 125.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 24.7N 126.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 26.3N 128.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.4N 129.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 27.9N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 28.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF IGNACIO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF CONVECTION\r\nWELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED SOME\r\n30 TO 35 KT WIND VECTORS. SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nLESS ORGANIZED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD\r\nTO 30 KNOTS. A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nIS EXPECTED AND IGNACIO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 KNOTS BUT IT\r\nSHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST AND MOVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 24.6N 126.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N 128.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 28.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP122009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2009\r\n \r\nIGNACIO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12-18\r\nHOURS. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nCLOUDS...SIGNALING THE DEGENERATION OF IGNACIO TO REMNANT LOW\r\nSTATUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT...OUT OF RESPECT OF\r\nTHE OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA WHICH SHOWED 30-35 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS. SINCE IGNACIO IS A LARGE CYCLONE...THE WINDS MAY DECREASE\r\nMORE SLOWLY THAN IS TYPICAL FOR A SYSTEM THAT IS SPINNING DOWN OVER\r\nCOOL WATER. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/12. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE\r\nAND TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 25.4N 127.3W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 26.8N 128.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 27.9N 129.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 28.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2009\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS ACQUIRED\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. A 2030 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM THE NAVAL\r\nRESEARCH LABORATORY MONTEREY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDING\r\nFEATURE OVER THE WEST SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  SUBSEQUENTLY...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THIRTEEN-E APPEARS TO BE WITHIN AN\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS\r\nTHE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES INTENSIFICATION AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AND SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS ICON.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING NOTED AT\r\nDAY 5 AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION...280/10.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO\r\nSHOULD STEER THIRTEEN-E MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR\r\nAGREEMENT IN WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND MOVING SHIFTING IT EASTWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WHILE INCREASING\r\nTHE ITS FORWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS ARE\r\nESSENTIALLY SEPARATED INTO TWO CLUSTERS. THE FIRST CLUSTER CONSISTS\r\nOF THE GFDL/HWRF AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS...WITH\r\nBOTH SUGGESTING A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER SYSTEM WITH LESS RIDGING TO\r\nTHE EAST.  THE SECOND CLUSTER CONTAINING THE GFS/NOGAPS/UKMET/ECMWF\r\nRESIDES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCN. THESE PARTICULAR MODELS INDICATE A\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A STRONGER LOW TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS WEIGHED HEAVILY ON THE\r\nTVCN DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN TWO\r\nMODEL CLUSTERS.     \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 13.8N 101.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 14.1N 102.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 14.5N 104.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 15.4N 106.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 17.5N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N 112.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 23.5N 114.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nLIKELY EMBEDDED IN A SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO -80C...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND ARCING OUTWARD IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nOVERALL...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS EXHIBITED INCREASED ORGANIZATION\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T 2.5 AND T 3.0\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JIMENA WITH A 35 KT INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n \r\nJIMENA CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY COURSE...WITH A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/10. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE COVERING CENTRAL/WESTERN MEXICO\r\nWHICH SHOULD STEER JIMENA ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nCOURSE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EAST PACIFIC ALONG 135 WEST WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO TO SHIFT EASTWARD.  THIS CHANGE IN THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW SHOULD FORCE JIMENA TO MOVE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY\r\nCOURSE BEYOND 48 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MODEL SPREAD IS\r\nRATHER LARGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS MODELS\r\nDIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. IN ONE CAMP...THE HWRF/GFDL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LESS RIDGING\r\nTO THE NORTH...RESULTING IN A TRACK RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nIN THE OTHER CAMP...THE UKMET/ECMWF/CANADIAN MODELS KEEP A MORE\r\nROBUST RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF JIMENA AND THEREFORE TRACK THE CYCLONE\r\nMUCH FARTHER WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES...NEARLY IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND THE UPDATED MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND VERY\r\nWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR JIMENA\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HOURS.  BY 96 HOURS...JIMENA SHOULD\r\nBE TRAVERSING COOLER WATERS...AND A GENERAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE BUT LOWER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF RUNS WHICH MAKE\r\nJIMENA A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 14.1N 102.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.4N 103.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.9N 104.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.4N 106.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N 107.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 25.5N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-29 13:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n600 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY OF JIMENA. EXTREMELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nPERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF THE STORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. A 0844 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT JIMENA HAD\r\nDEVELOPED A SMALL EYE. IN ADDITION...A WARM SPOT IS NOW APPARENT ON\r\nCONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60\r\nKT...A LITTLE ABOVE THE TAFB/SAB CLASSIFICATIONS...AND IF THE EYE\r\nPERSISTS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A HURRICANE IN SHORT ORDER. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF/GFDL\r\nMODELS...WHICH ALL SHOW VERY NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...OR SOONER. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITY. NO\r\nCHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST ARE BEING MADE AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1300Z 14.2N 102.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 14.4N 103.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 14.9N 104.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 15.4N 106.1W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N 107.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 19.5N 110.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 25.5N 114.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nJIMENA HAS BEEN UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT AND\r\nRECENTLY A SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS\r\nBECOME APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SPECIAL DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION AT 1345 UTC FROM TAFB INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM WAS\r\nNEAR 65 KT...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE SUGGESTING 70\r\nTO 75 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY WARM SSTS OVER\r\n30C...VERY HIGH MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY AND LOW SHEAR. THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX IS FORECASTING A 95 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 35 KT\r\nINCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE HIGHEST VALUE I HAVE EVER\r\nSEEN. IN ADDITION...ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EITHER\r\nA CATEGORY THREE OR FOUR HURRICANE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING...SHOWING A 35-KT INCREASE\r\nFROM THE 1200 UTC SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 60 KT. SSTS DECREASE IN THE\r\nLONG-RANGE...AND WEAKENING IS SHOWN AFTER DAY 3. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE THE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR\r\nJIMENA...WITH THE HURRICANE LIKELY MAKING A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME BIG DISCREPANCIES IN HOW MUCH THAT RIDGE\r\nWEAKENS DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\nTHE GFDL/HWRF SHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO TURN JIMENA\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW...POISING A SIGNIFICANT\r\nTHREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA OR WESTERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND JIMENA\r\nTO CONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nHURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THE HWRF/GFDL HAVE\r\nHAD AN EASTWARD BIAS FOR THESE TYPES OF SYSTEMS...AND THEIR CURRENT\r\nFORECASTS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING WESTWARD WITH TIME. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE FURTHER WESTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENTS LATER ON...ESPECIALLY IF THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS\r\nCOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 14.3N 103.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.6N 104.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 15.0N 105.7W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.6N 106.9W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.7N 108.2W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT JIMENA HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE\r\nTINY EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT WITH SOME WARMING OF THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN\r\nPLAYING CATCH UP ALL DAY...NOW 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...AND THIS\r\nWILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE ONLY FORESEEABLE WAY THAT JIMENA\r\nWOULD STOP INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IS AN EYEWALL\r\nCYCLE...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE SMALL EYE AND A MOAT OF\r\nDRIER AIR SEEN ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  OTHERWISE...ALL ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL CATEGORY FOUR\r\nHURRICANE DUE TO EXTREMELY WARM WATERS...AS MUCH AS 1.5C WARMER\r\nTHAN AVERAGE...AND LOW SHEAR.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT JIMENA WILL BE\r\nTRAVERSING THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH HAVE BEEN UNTAPPED BY TROPICAL CYCLONES SO FAR THIS\r\nSEASON.  THE NHC FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...AND SHOWS ANOTHER RAPID INTENSIFICATION PERIOD\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN ABOUT\r\n2-3 DAYS DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND PERHAPS AN INCREASE IN SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE FORMATION OF THE EYE HAS LED TO A MORE RELIABLE INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF 300/10...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  A MOTION\r\nBETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION\r\nOF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE HURRICANE AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE STILL IN A LARGE DISAGREEMENT OVER HOW MUCH A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL EFFECT JIMENA.  THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONSISTS OF THE GFDL/HWRF...\r\nWHICH INSISTS THAT JIMENA WILL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOMORROW\r\nAND THREATEN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR WESTERN MEXICO. ALL OF THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A RIDGE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND JIMENA\r\nTO CONTINUE A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...KEEPING JIMENA FARTHER AWAY FROM MEXICO.   ALTHOUGH THE\r\nHWRF/GFDL HAVE HISTORICALLY HAD AN EASTWARD BIAS FOR THESE TYPES OF\r\nSYSTEMS...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE GENERALLY MADE A SMALL EASTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT IN THEIR 1200 UTC FORECASTS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS FORECAST HAS TO BE\r\nCONSIDERED LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE\r\nHWRF/GFDL AND THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 15.1N 104.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.6N 105.3W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 16.3N 106.6W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 17.2N 107.8W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 18.3N 109.0W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 21.0N 111.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 25.5N 118.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n\r\nWHILE THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY IS\r\nNOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...SSM/I DATA AT 0106 UTC SHOWS IT IS\r\nSTILL PRESENT UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE MICROWAVE DATA\r\nALSO SHOWED AN OUTER BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION\r\nTHAT MAY BE THE PRECURSOR OF AN OUTER EYEWALL.  SINCE THE EYE IS\r\nNOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...IT IS UNCLEAR IF THE\r\nHURRICANE IS STILL INTENSIFYING.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 90 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nJIMENA HAS TURNED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION NOW 305/10.  THE HURRICANE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR\r\n27N111W.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND PUSH THE WEAKENING LOW INTO THE PACIFIC...WHICH\r\nWOULD ALLOW JIMENA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nKEEP THE LOW STRONG ENOUGH AND FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST TO TURN\r\nJIMENA NORTHWARD WITH A LANDFALL IN WESTERN MEXICO.  AT THIS\r\nTIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFDL HAS PERFORMED WELL IN SIMILAR PAST SITUATIONS\r\nAND THUS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  ALSO...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST JIMENA TO SHEAR APART IN THE LATER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN TO SUCH A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE CURRENT MOTION THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST AS WELL.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nNEAR THE THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS...AS WELL AS\r\nNEAR THE GFS DYNAMICAL MODEL.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HR...AS JIMENA WILL BE OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE ONLY\r\nPOTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR AT THE MOMENT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THAT WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT IN 36 HR.  IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES THAT JIMENA COULD GET STRONGER THAN THAT.  ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...JIMENA WOULD REACH COOLER SSTS AFTER 48 HR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN.  THE LONGER-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE...AS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION AND\r\nINCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 72 HR MAKE THE FORECAST MORE\r\nPROBLEMATIC.\r\n\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT CABO\r\nCORRIENTES IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND IF THESE MODEL FORECASTS APPEAR TO\r\nBE VERIFYING WATCHES OR WARNING COULD BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR\r\nSUNDAY.  IN ADDITION...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT\r\nTO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 15.8N 105.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 106.2W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 17.3N 107.4W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 18.2N 108.4W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 19.5N 109.6W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N 112.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N 114.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 117.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA HAS REAPPEARED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN FACT...THE TINY EYE HAS WARMED A\r\nLITTLE AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THESE VERY\r\nRECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY YIELD DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AROUND T5.5...WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 100 KT.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS JIMENA\r\nWILL TRAVERSE VERY WARM SSTS AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND SHOWS\r\nJIMENA REACHING CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO WEAKEN IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND\r\nINTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE HURRICANE MOVES A LITTLE EAST OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IT COULD REMAIN OVER WARMER WATER AND A LITTLE STRONGER. \r\nALTHOUGH...THIS IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND\r\nINTERACTION WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  ALL IN ALL...THERE\r\nIS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH OF JIMENA IN THE 3-5 DAY\r\nTIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS MOVING NORTHWEST OR 305/10.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO WHICH SHOULD\r\nSTEER JIMENA NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE CENTRAL\r\nPORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DRIFT\r\nWESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF\r\nSPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO KEEP THE UPPER-LOW STRONG ENOUGH TO IMPART A FASTER NORTHERN\r\nMOTION OF THE HURRICANE.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION TAKING THE HURRICANE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA\r\nIN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  MEANWHILE...THE UKMET AND ECMWF WEAKEN THE LOW\r\nAND BUILD IN THE RIDGE...KEEPING THE HURRICANE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE.  OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD\r\nONCE AGAIN AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFS SOLUTION.  HOWEVER....THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.  A WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nA PORTION OF THAT AREA LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 16.0N 105.7W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 16.8N 106.8W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.9N 107.9W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 19.2N 108.9W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 20.9N 110.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 24.5N 111.9W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n\r\nJIMENA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN EXTREMELY COLD CLOUD TOPS. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 6.0 FROM BOTH TAFB MIAMI AND SAB\r\nWASHINGTON...WHICH EQUATES TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115\r\nKT OR CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SO THE INTENSITY CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WILL\r\nDEPEND LARGELY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE INNER CORE...WHICH IS NOT\r\nVERY PREDICTABLE.  NONETHELESS...SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THIS...ALONG WITH\r\nTHE POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS IS BASED ON A\r\nMOTION NEAR AND OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  HOWEVER SINCE THERE\r\nIS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE LATTER\r\nPART OF THE PERIOD...THE 4 AND 5 DAY INTENSITIES ARE ALSO HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA APPEARS TO DEPEND ON TWO MAIN FACTORS...A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA\r\nAND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD AND\r\nWEAKENING WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD...WHEREAS THE HWRF AND\r\nGFDL DO NOT WEAKEN THE LOW OR BUILD THE RIDGE AS MUCH. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY THE GFDL/HWRF TAKE JIMENA BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE\r\nRIDGE...AND OVER BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nPREDICT JIMENA TO MOVE TO THE WEST OF BAJA.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS AND\r\nMOVES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n\r\nINTEREST IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.  A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 16.3N 106.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.1N 107.1W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 18.4N 108.3W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 20.0N 109.4W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 21.7N 110.4W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 25.0N 112.0W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 27.0N 113.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n \r\nJIMENA CONTINUES TO HAVE A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A QUITE\r\nSYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ON INFRARED IMAGES...THE EYE\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT...SUGGESTIVE OF ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT T 6.0 FROM\r\nBOTH AGENCIES BUT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT A STRONGER HURRICANE\r\n...PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF THE WARMER EYE. THEREFORE THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS BOOSTED TO 120 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nCERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND\r\nMOIST TROPOSPHERE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD ALSO\r\nBE HALTED AT ANY TIME BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH. BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR JIMENA. THE\r\nRESULTING INCREASE IN SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A WEAKENING\r\nTREND...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ALSO BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE DEPENDENT\r\nON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH LAND.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES...TYPICAL OF THE MOVEMENT OF\r\nINTENSE HURRICANES...BUT THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nABOUT 295/07. THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA SEEMS TO DEPEND LARGELY\r\nUPON THE EVOLUTION OF TWO MAIN FACTORS...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. IF THE\r\nLOW SHIFTS WESTWARD AND WEAKENS...IT WOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD AND COULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO VEER WESTWARD AWAY FROM BAJA.\r\nTHAT APPEARS TO BE THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nAND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ARE THE WESTERN\r\nOUTLIERS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS\r\nTHE GFS...THE HWRF...AND THE GFDL INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE MOVEMENT OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...SO THAT JIMENA WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nRIGHT...AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL\r\nTRACKS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA. A HURRICANE WATCH\r\nMAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 16.6N 106.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.3N 107.7W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.7N 108.7W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 110.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.6N 110.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N 112.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR DISCUSSION OF WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES\r\n\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF JIMENA CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL EYE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. OUTFLOW IS\r\nEXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND TOPS WITHIN THE CDO HAVE CONTINUED\r\nTO COOL. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM SAB AT\r\n0000 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN NEAR 6.5 FOR\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE INCREASING TREND IN THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 125 KT. CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS JIMENA WILL\r\nBE IN AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...IF AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS IT WOULD LIKELY HALT ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. GIVEN THE LIMITED\r\nPREDICTABILITY OF THESE INNER-CORE CHANGES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE SHORT-TERM. AROUND 48\r\nHOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION\r\nWITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE JIMENA TO WEAKEN. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nTRACK...AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND...INTRODUCES\r\nADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY INTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD. \r\n \r\nJIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO EXHIBIT TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/06...A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN JIMENA\r\nAND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N 112W WILL BE\r\nCRITICAL TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE HURRICANE. THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF SUGGEST THAT\r\nIT WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL JIMENA NORTHWARD TOWARD THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE\r\nECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN WEAKEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND\r\nTURN JIMENA TOWARD THE WEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. THE HIGHER-RESOLUTION 1800 UTC GFS PARALLEL\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE MORE EASTWARD TRACK SCENARIO...WHILE THE\r\n1200 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE SEA-LEVEL PRESSURE FIELD\r\nNORTH OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN POSITION...SUGGESTING THAT A\r\nSIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF THE MEMBERS HAVE A TRACK CLOSER TO BAJA. THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL TRACK CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE EASTWARD\r\nSCENARIO...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST FOR THIS PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH\r\nIS REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA AT THIS TIME. JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE\r\nWIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INDICATES THAT THERE IS CURRENTLY A\r\n20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING AT ANY\r\nINDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTH OF A LINE\r\nFROM LORETO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO. \r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nJIMENA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE\r\nAREAS TONIGHT OR MONDAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 17.0N 107.2W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 19.2N 109.1W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 21.3N 110.2W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.4N 111.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N 112.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 28.6N 113.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N 115.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AN EARLIER SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nALSO SHOWED A SOMEWHAT LESS DEFINED EYE...BUT WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nOUTER BAND.  THIS MAY BE A SIGN THAT AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT HAS\r\nSTARTED...HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO\r\nCORROBORATE THIS.  DUE TO THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...DVORAK\r\nDATA-T NUMBER HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY...BUT A BLEND OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS\r\nMAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/7 KT.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nCENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA ARE THE FEATURES THAT WILL PLAY A\r\nROLE IN STEERING THE HURRICANE.  THE 0000 UTC MODELS HAVE COME INTO\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF JIMENA.  NEARLY ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS KEEP THE UPPER-LOW INTACT LONG ENOUGH TO TURN THE HURRICANE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OUTLIER TO THIS SOLUTION IS THE UKMET\r\nWHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE CANADIAN\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN PREDICTING A TRACK\r\nNEAR OR OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER AND IN A\r\nLOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...HOWEVER\r\nFLUCTUATIONS COULD OCCUR AS THE RESULT OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  THAT\r\nCOMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND INDICATES THAT JIMENA COULD REMAIN A VERY\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nLATER THIS MORNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA.\r\nINTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF JIMENA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nFOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nA U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE JIMENA AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY.  DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 17.5N 107.9W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 20.1N 109.8W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 22.1N 110.8W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 24.1N 111.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 27.2N 112.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 28.5N 113.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N 114.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN COMING AND GOING ON INFRARED IMAGERY AND...BASED ON\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE LARGER THAN IT WAS\r\nYESTERDAY.  THE MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER THIS MORNING ALSO\r\nSUGGESTED THAT JIMENA MAY HAVE UNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. \r\nDVORAK SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A\r\nLITTLE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...SO JIMENA MAY HAVE WEAKENED\r\nSLIGHTLY.  HOWEVER...I WILL HOLD THE CURRENT INTENSITY AT 125 KT\r\nUNTIL AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE INVESTIGATES THE HURRICANE A LITTLE\r\nLATER TODAY AND GIVES US SOME IN SITU MEASUREMENTS.  THE WATERS ARE\r\nWARM ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK...BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM AFTER ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS AND WITH REDUCED OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  ALSO...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN 24-48\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER NONE OF THESE FACTOR ARE LIKELY TO PREVENT JIMENA\r\nFROM REMAINING A MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH\r\nHISTORICALLY HAVE BEEN OUR BEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 315/7.  THE STEERING SCENARIO\r\nREMAINS MORE OR LESS THE SAME.  JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL\r\nAND THE LOW-RESOLUTION GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH ARE CONSIDERED\r\nWESTERN OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.  IN FACT...THE MEAN OF THE\r\nHIGHER-RESOLUTION PARALLEL RUN OF THE GFS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA AND A HURRICANE WATCH FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED...DO NOT FORECAST ON THE\r\nEXACT FORECAST TRACK.  A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT AND DANGEROUS\r\nIMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  MOREOVER...TRACK\r\nFORECAST ERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nTIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 18.0N 108.3W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 19.1N 109.2W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N 110.3W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 111.2W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 25.0N 111.9W    95 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 27.6N 112.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 29.0N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N 114.0W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS HAVE JUST COMPLETED THEIR\r\nMISSION IN JIMENA...AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS STRONGER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 149 KT\r\nAND THE MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS WERE 132 KT OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE SFMR ALSO MEASURED 128 KT IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nEYEWALL AND 125 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE EYEWALL. A MINIMUM\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 931 MB WAS MEASURED BY DROPSONDE. THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 135 KT...AT THE VERY HIGH END OF\r\nCATEGORY 4 STATUS. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INNER CORE EVENTS...PRIMARILY EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENTS. HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES A GRADUAL DECREASE\r\nIN OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND SOME INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER THESE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nINFLUENCES SHOULD NOT PREVENT JIMENA FROM MAINTAINING MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAFTER WOBBLING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MOTION IS\r\nBACK TO NORTHWEST OR 315/9.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  JIMENA IS LIKELY TO MOVE BETWEEN A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...LIKE THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...PREVIOUSLY\r\nWESTERN OUTLIERS...HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD AND ARE NOW IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS.  HOWEVER THE U.K. AND\r\nECMWF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL SUITE.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.\r\nINTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT STRONG WINDS\r\nWILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS EARLY AS POSSIBLE. \r\nALSO...INTERESTS IN THE WARNING AREA ARE REMINDED...NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.  A HURRICANE IS NOT A POINT...AND\r\nDANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  IN\r\nFACT...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT JIMENA\r\nIS LARGER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED.  MOREOVER...TRACK FORECAST\r\nERRORS CAN EASILY BE 50 TO 75 MILES IN THE 24 TO 36 HOUR TIME\r\nFRAME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 18.5N 109.2W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 19.6N 110.1W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 21.6N 111.1W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.6N 111.8W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 112.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 27.8N 112.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 29.5N 113.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.0N 113.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n \r\nSINCE THE DEPARTURE OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA HAS REMAINED\r\nIMPRESSIVE...WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nIN A LARGE CDO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 6.5 FROM TAFB AND\r\n6.0 FROM SAB AND THE ADT HAS BEEN SHOWING T-NUMBERS OF 6.5 FOR THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 135 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA COULD HAVE REACHED\r\nCATEGORY 5 STATUS EARLIER TODAY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD\r\nSTEADY FOR 12 HOURS...AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS INDICATED\r\nAS JIMENA WILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS THE\r\nCYCLONE APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...JIMENA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL. MORE SUBSTANTIAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA INTERACTS WITH THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD ASSUMES\r\nTHAT JIMENA WILL STILL BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO\r\nTHE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JIMENA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING JIMENA TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nAND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND\r\nIS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nIT IS NOW NECESSARY TO EXTEND HURRICANE WATCHES FARTHER NORTH ALONG\r\nBOTH COASTS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT OR ON\r\nTUESDAY.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT\r\nSTRONG WINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...SO PREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.\r\nREMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...SINCE DANGEROUS\r\nIMPACTS WILL EXTEND SOME DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nLANDFALL LOCATION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 19.4N 109.6W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 20.7N 110.4W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.5N 111.9W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 26.1N 112.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 28.2N 112.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 31.5N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL EYE OF JIMENA BECAME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nAROUND 0500 UTC...HOWEVER SINCE THAT TIME IT HAS WARMED AND IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND A RATHER SYMMETRIC CDO.\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 6.5 FROM TAFB AND 6.0 FROM\r\nSAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ALSO CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND\r\nT6.5. BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND UNCHANGED SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 135 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE JIMENA AROUND 1500 UTC THIS MORNING.  THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER LOWER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT...HOWEVER VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nSHOWN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE AS IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREAFTER...\r\nLAND INTERACTION AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nFASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.  THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT JIMENA\r\nWILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. THE LATEST\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD. THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE WHILE THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF AND ECMWF ARE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE. THE SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK LIES ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE\r\nOF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.  \r\n  \r\nBASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS\r\nEXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING NORTHWARD ALONG BOTH COASTS OF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG\r\nWINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. JIMENA WILL BE APPROACHING THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA AT AN OBLIQUE ANGLE...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT\r\nOF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE\r\nLOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 20.2N 110.1W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 21.6N 110.8W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 111.6W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.3W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.7N 112.7W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 28.4N 113.1W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 30.0N 113.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 31.5N 112.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NASA TRMM AND AQUA SATELLITES...ALONG\r\nWITH IR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT JIMENA IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE.  THE SMALL EYE SEEN EARLIER IS BECOMING RAGGED\r\nAND CLOUD-FILLED...WHILE THE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS AN OUTER EYEWALL\r\nROUGHLY 30 N MI WIDE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER...REPORTING THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 945 MB...AND THAT THE 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THOSE MEASURED YESTERDAY.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 125 KT...AND THIS COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT ABOUT\r\n10 KT.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOME LESS CONFIDENT\r\nFROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL...\r\nGFDN...AND NOGAPS CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE REST\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.  OVERALL...\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...AND SO HAS\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...THE NEW TRACK COMPROMISES\r\nBETWEEN THE MODEL EXTREMES BY CALLING FOR A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.\r\nTHE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA IN 36-48 HR.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD INTENSIFY SOME AT THE END OF THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IF THAT HAPPENS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  OTHERWISE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN OVER STEADILY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UNTIL THAT TIME.  JIMENA SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER DURING ITS TIME OVER BAJA.  AFTER 72 HR...JIMENA\r\nCOULD BE MOVING INTO THE WESTERLIES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...\r\nUNDER STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA...OR OVER COLD WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL\r\nOF THOSE POSSIBILITIES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG\r\nWINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS\r\nLEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE\r\nLOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 21.0N 110.7W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N 111.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 25.9N 112.9W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 27.1N 113.3W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 30.0N 113.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 31.5N 113.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nEARLIER DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED THAT JIMENA WAS COMPLETING ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE...WITH THE INNER EYE DISSIPATING AND THE NEW EYE ABOUT\r\n25-30 N MI ACROSS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR\r\n115 KT AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nHAVE WARMED AND THE EYE HAS NOT CLEARED OUT.  BASED ON THIS...IT IS\r\nESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  JIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A\r\nGENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINING IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST BECOMES\r\nLESS CONFIDENT FROM 72 HR ON DUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\nTHE GFDL AND GFDN STILL CALL FOR JIMENA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nREST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE EITHER STALLS THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nCENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA OR TURNS IT WESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.\r\nTHIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO HIGHER PRESSURES DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND THE SYSTEM SHEARING APART AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS THROUGH THROUGH 72 HR...AND THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST RIGHT OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR...AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON\r\nTHE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 36 HR.\r\n \r\nIT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION\r\nAT THE END OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AS JIMENA IS STARTING\r\nTO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL...AND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nOCCUR WITH THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN ABOUT 72\r\nHR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THAT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD\r\nWEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG\r\nWINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS\r\nLEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE\r\nLOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 21.9N 111.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N 112.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 25.2N 112.7W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 113.1W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.6N 113.4W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 28.5N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 29.5N 113.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 30.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nSINCE THE AIR FORCE PLANE LEFT THIS AFTERNOON...VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JIMENA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN.  THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL SHRINKING OF\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE.  FURTHERMORE...THERE HAS BEEN AN APPARENT\r\nDETERIORATION TO THE INNER CORE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO\r\nT4.5 AND T5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED UPON THE\r\nDEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE BUT ALSO USING CONTINUITY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THAN\r\nBEFORE.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.  ACCORDING TO\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...JIMENA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO FOR AT LEAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS SUGGEST A FORECAST OF LOWER CONFIDENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\nA MINORITY OF GLOBAL MODELS TAKES JIMENA NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD\r\nINTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WITH ONLY ONE TAKING IT INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A LARGER NUMBER OF MODEL RUNS EITHER\r\nSTALL JIMENA OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...LIKE THE GFDL...OR TURN\r\nTHE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN WESTWARD INTO THE EAST PACIFIC IN\r\nRESPONSE MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO ITS NORTH.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SHIFTED\r\nINITIALLY TO THE RIGHT DUE TO THE CURRENT MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.\r\nTHE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK BEYOND 72 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS\r\nBEEN TRENDING MORE WESTWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING CAUSED BY AN EARLIER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS\r\nCONTINUED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF GRADUALLY COOLER SSTS AND\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  UW CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGESTS 10-15 KT OF\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER JIMENA...WHICH SEEMS BELIEVABLE GIVEN THE MORE\r\nASYMMETRIC ORGANIZATION OF THE CORE CONVECTION DURING THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS. PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nWELL ON A CONTINUED...STEADY WEAKENING.  THEREAFTER...STRONGER\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE CENTER TRACKING MOVING OVER LAND SHOULD LEAD\r\nTO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING... WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLING\r\nFOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR.  THERE REMAINS A\r\nCHANCE THAT JIMENA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST AFTER\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG\r\nWINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON. REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS\r\nLEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE\r\nLOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 23.2N 111.3W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 24.6N 112.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 26.2N 112.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 27.3N 112.9W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 28.0N 113.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 28.5N 113.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 29.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 30.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JIMENA APPEARED TO BE DETERIORATING\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SEVERAL HOURS AGO...BUT RECENTLY A NEW CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND HAS DEVELOPED THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  RECENT TRMM PASSES AT 2340 UTC AND 0612 UTC SUGGEST\r\nTHAT A MID-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS SHED OFF TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST BUT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY\r\nSYMMETRIC.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE...AND AN\r\nAVERAGE OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE 0612 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS\r\nMOVED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/11.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOWS THE CENTER OF JIMENA\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR CABO SAN LAZARO.  ONLY THE\r\nUKMET IS AN OUTLIER BY SHOWING A MORE SUDDEN NORTHWARD TURN INLAND. \r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS OR SO...THE NORTHWARD MOTION OF JIMENA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL ENVELOPE\r\nSHOWS JIMENA SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36-48 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A\r\nSLOW WESTWARD DRIFT AT DAYS 3 AND 4.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED SOUTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND NOW\r\nINDICATES A SLOW WESTWARD TURN BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS JIMENA MOVES\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE BAJA COAST...AND THE\r\nTHERMOCLINE ALONG THAT PART OF THE COAST IS VERY SHALLOW DUE TO\r\nNORMAL COASTAL UPWELLING.  COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE LAND\r\nINTERACTION...THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JIMENA TO CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSTILL SHOWS JIMENA MOVING INLAND AS A HURRICANE.  ONCE\r\nINLAND...WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN\r\nCONSIDERABLY...AND JIMENA SHOULD SPIN DOWN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nBY 48 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION BY DAY 5 SINCE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS LOSE THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION BY THEN.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG\r\nWINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS\r\nLEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE\r\nLOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 23.9N 111.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 25.3N 112.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 26.6N 113.0W    65 KT...ON THE BAJA COAST\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 27.4N 113.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 27.7N 113.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 27.7N 114.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 27.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2009\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nJIMENA IS OVER LAND.  HOWEVER...EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED\r\nTHE VORTEX WAS TILTED WITH HEIGHT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THERE\r\nARE NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO PINPOINT THE SURFACE CENTER.  THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE SURFACE CENTER HAS PASSED NEAR OR OVER\r\nCABO SAN LAZARO DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE...AND BASED ON THIS\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A\r\nCONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH DECELERATION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS JIMENA\r\nTURNING WESTWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHEAR IT APART.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WESTERLY MOTION THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...WITH JIMENA OR ITS REMNANTS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER\r\nTHE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE DISSIPATING.  THE\r\nGFDN...NOGAPS...AND LBAR MODELS ARE OUTLIERS IN SHOWING AN EASTWARD\r\nTURN...A POSSIBILITY THAT IS NOT CONSIDERED LIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nJIMENA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...THE\r\nCOLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nIS WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR. \r\nEVEN IF THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA...THE FORECAST SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG\r\nWINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  THE FORECAST TRACK OF JIMENA IS ALMOST\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SMALL DEVIATIONS\r\nLEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD RESULT IN LARGE ERRORS IN BOTH THE\r\nLOCATION AND TIMING OF LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 25.2N 112.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 26.4N 112.7W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 27.4N 113.3W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 27.8N 113.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 27.8N 114.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 27.5N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":21,"Date":"2009-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JIMENA HAS MADE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 75-80 KT.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER INLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-30 HR BEFORE\r\nEMERGING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE PACIFIC\r\nWATERS ALONG THE TRACK ARE COLD...AND THE FORECAST VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HR.  THUS...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM LATER\r\nTONIGHT...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36-48 HR...AND A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n72 HR.  THERE IS A CHANCE THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY EMERGE OVER THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT...BUT IF THIS HAPPENS IT WILL LIKELY NOT\r\nSTAY THERE LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE INTENSITY OF JIMENA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/11.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT JIMENA\r\nSHOULD DECELERATE AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR\r\nSO AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE BULK\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES JIMENA SLOWLY WESTWARD\r\nINTO THE PACIFIC...A MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nDISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...NUDGED A LITTLE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ARE ADVISED THAT STRONG\r\nWINDS WILL PRECEDE THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER BY SEVERAL HOURS...SO\r\nPREPARATIONS NEED TO BE COMPLETED VERY SOON.  REMEMBER NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE DANGEROUS IMPACTS EXTEND SOME\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 26.4N 112.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.4N 112.7W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 28.1N 113.3W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 114.2W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 28.1N 114.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":22,"Date":"2009-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2009\r\n \r\nWHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES OF\r\nJIMENA...LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA IS DECOUPLING FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.  MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST...THEN WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AFTER\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJIMENA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND COOL WATER TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION WITHIN 24-36 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW SHORTLY\r\nTHEREAFTER.  IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT JIMENA WILL WEAKEN AND\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 27.0N 112.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 27.9N 112.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 113.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 114.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 27.9N 114.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 27.7N 115.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 27.5N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":23,"Date":"2009-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JIMENA HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE\r\nOVER LAND...THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL FROM A TIMELY 0516 UTC TRMM OVERPASS\r\nSUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND IS\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  ALL THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA AND THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.  A 0415\r\nUTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED AN AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE COULD BE WINDS TO 50 KT\r\nCLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THE SCATTEROMETER DOES NOT PROVIDE DATA. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 50 KT.  INTERACTION\r\nWITH LAND AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nJIMENA FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER MAY\r\nMOVE OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A BRIEF PERIOD\r\nDURING THE DAY...RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT LIKELY.\r\n\r\nCONVECTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF JIMENA IS MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/6.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A CESSATION OF THIS NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TODAY\r\nWITH JIMENA PREDICTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND MOVE BACK INLAND\r\nOVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE REMNANT LOW OF JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION\r\nANTICIPATED BY 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 27.7N 112.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 28.2N 112.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 28.2N 113.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 27.8N 113.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.3N 114.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 27.0N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":24,"Date":"2009-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2009\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER\r\nOF JIMENA THIS MORNING...WHICH APPEARS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR HAS CAUSED ALMOST ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE DISPLACED\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT AFTER\r\nCONSIDERING THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND ASSUMING A\r\nGRADUAL REDUCTION OF THE WINDS.  \r\n\r\nSTRONG SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING OF JIMENA...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...AND\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW. STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME\r\nWEAK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/4. A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AND THEN THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS JIMENA BECOMES A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND BAM SHALLOW. \r\n\r\nTHE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR MEXICO.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 27.9N 112.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.1N 112.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.0N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 27.6N 114.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.2N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":25,"Date":"2009-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE EXPOSED CENTER OF JIMENA OVER THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA.  ALL OF THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR.  AN ASCAT PASS\r\nAROUND 1640 UTC SHOWED A COUPLE OF 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE WINDS HAVE LIKELY CONTINUED TO\r\nDECREASE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT.  \r\nJIMENA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND\r\nDETERIORATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS DUE TO LAND\r\nINTERACTION AND STRONG SHEAR.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY WEST\r\nOR SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL TOTAL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE BIGGEST THREAT WITH JIMENA IS HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 27.8N 112.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N 112.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N 113.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 26.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":26,"Date":"2009-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2009\r\n \r\nJIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER AND BASED ON A\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5 FROM TAFB...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 35-KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  MODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND LAND\r\nINTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THE CENTER OF JIMENA REMAINS OVER THE\r\nWARM WATER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IT COULD REMAIN A MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM LONGER SHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK MODELS GENERALLY PREDICT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO\r\nCOMMENCE VERY SOON...WHICH WOULD TAKE JIMENA BACK OVER THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA LATE TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nSUIT...BUT DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT THAT HAS OCCURRED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 27.5N 111.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 27.3N 111.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.1N 112.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 26.8N 112.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 26.5N 113.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jimena","Adv":27,"Date":"2009-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JIMENA IS SHEARING APART THIS\r\nMORNING.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW\r\n15-20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER JIMENA...AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE\r\nSYSTEM.  AS A RESULT...THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND MOVED OFF\r\nTO THE EAST...LEAVING A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  WHILE THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE CORE...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT JIMENA HAS WEAKENED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND JIMENA\r\nIS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT...130/2.  JIMENA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY THAT\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY\r\nOF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nCENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 27.4N 111.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 27.3N 111.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N 112.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 26.8N 112.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jimena","Adv":28,"Date":"2009-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009\r\n \r\nJIMENA HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND\r\n0600 UTC...AND IF IT DOES NOT RETURN SOON...JIMENA WILL BE DECLARED\r\nA REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nTHE LOW DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nJIMENA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A SLOW DRIFT\r\nTOWARD THE WEST...270/02. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE\r\nCENTER BACK OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF WESTERN MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 27.7N 111.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.7N 111.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 27.5N 112.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 27.3N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 27.4N 114.1W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jimena","Adv":29,"Date":"2009-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP132009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2009\r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...JIMENA HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE\r\nTHAN 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...IT IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT\r\nTHIS TIME. INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION REMAIN POSSIBLE PRIOR\r\nTO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST\r\n...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 240/05. JIMENA WILL CONTINUE\r\nTHIS MOTION UNTIL THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATES OVER THE RUGGED\r\nTERRAIN OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. \r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nJIMENA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 27.3N 112.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 26.9N 112.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 1000\r\nMILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS\r\nAT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE A CONSENSUS 2.0...THEREFORE\r\nADVISORIES ARE INITIATED AT THIS TIME AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08...AS THE DEPRESSION IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTH. THERE IS LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH TWO\r\nSCENARIOS DEPICTED. THE FIRST IS SHOWN BY THE GFS...NOGAPS...UKMET\r\nAND GFDL...WHICH SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...SEEMINGLY DUE TO\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE STRONGER HURRICANE JIMENA. THE GFS...NOGAPS AND\r\nGFDL SHOW THIS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY 36 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nDOES NOT SHOW IT UNTIL LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE SECOND SCENARIO IS\r\nSHOWN BY THE HWRF...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAMS...WHICH SHOW A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\nFOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE SECOND SCENARIO...\r\nASSUMING THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SUBSTANTIAL INTERACTION WITH\r\nJIMENA. THE FORECAST SPEED IS KEPT SLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD DUE TO\r\nTHE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK SHOWS A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH BY 36 HOURS AND A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\nDAY 3...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nWEST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE DEPRESSION BEING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS LIMITED\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THIS MAY BE BECAUSE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS...AND THEN SHOWS A\r\nLITTLE MORE WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE\r\nMOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AS IT APPROACHES 20N ON THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 13.3N 121.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 14.0N 122.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 14.9N 122.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 15.8N 122.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.9N 122.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND TO THE\r\nWEST AND SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...RESULTING IN DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND 1800 UTC. BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO KEVIN WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 40 KT. KEVIN IS THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM TO FORM THIS MONTH IN\r\nTHE EAST PACIFIC BASIN...THE MOST IN AUGUST SINCE 1968 AND THE MOST\r\nIN ANY MONTH SINCE 1985.\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF KEVIN IS LOCATED\r\nFARTHER SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...RESULTING IN\r\nLIGHT STEERING CURRENT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nVERY LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LONGER-TERM INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/08 WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE GUIDANCE...AND\r\nTHE ADVISORY MOTION IS 290/04. \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY WIDE SPREAD THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD. THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT THE\r\nCANADIAN NOW SHOW AT LEAST SOME EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THIS\r\nSEEMS TO BE DUE TO INTERACTION OF KEVIN WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND\r\nTHE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHWEST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE AMOUNT OF\r\nEASTWARD MOTION VARIES DRAMATICALLY...WITH THE UKMET...GFDL...\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF SHOWING AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION\r\nTHROUGH DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE HWRF...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN\r\nSHOW A TURN TO THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...IT IS DIFFICULT TO SORT\r\nOUT THESE DIFFERENCES SINCE THE GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSES OF BOTH\r\nJIMENA AND KEVIN SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK. ALSO...THE HWRF RUN FOR KEVIN\r\nHAS AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK REPRESENTATION OF JIMENA...WHICH IS THE\r\nMUCH STRONGER CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nALL THIS BEING SAID...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN MODIFIED\r\nCONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. INITIALLY...THE TRACK IS\r\nFARTHER SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRENDS TOWARD THE MODELS THAT SHOW THE EASTWARD TURN. AFTER AN\r\nINITIAL NORTHWEST MOTION...THE FORECAST TURNS KEVIN NORTHWARD BY 24\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD TURN AT SLOW SPEED\r\nTHROUGH DAY 4. BY DAY 5...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS\r\nINDICATED...DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO\r\nSAY...THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL INTENSITY AIDS. GIVEN RECENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...SHOWING A PEAK AT 50 KT FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECREASE LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR BEGINS\r\nTO INCREASE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 12.8N 122.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.2N 122.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 15.1N 122.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 16.1N 122.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 17.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2113Z 36 GHZ AMSR-E MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. A\r\nCIMSS/NESDIS/NRL AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AROUND THE SAME TIME\r\nPERIOD REFLECTS AN INTENSITY OF 48 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THESE DATA AND A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...KEVIN IS EXPECTED\r\nWEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO\r\nTHE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE JIMENA AND SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nKEVIN IS CURRENTLY RESIDING WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO...AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED BETWEEN THE\r\nCYCLONE AND HURRICANE JIMENA. CONSEQUENTLY...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN\r\nHAS RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD DRIFT 350/5 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AS\r\nNOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...TWO MODEL CLUSTERS DESCRIBE\r\nDISSIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIOS. THE GFDL/GFDN/NOGAPS/GFS/GFS\r\nENSEMBLE/UKMET AND THE ECMWF GROUP SUGGEST A GRADUAL NORTH TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SECOND\r\nCLUSTER INCLUDES THE HWRF/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE CANADIAN. THESE\r\nMODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO\r\nA BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER\r\nTHE 72 HOUR PERIOD. SINCE THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL\r\nGROUPINGS REMAINS QUITE LARGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nCLOSELY TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE MORE\r\nDOMINANT CLUSTER.  A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS IS\r\nALSO REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 13.4N 122.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.9N 122.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 14.8N 122.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 16.3N 121.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 19.0N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH KEVIN HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW LOCATED JUST UNDERNEATH THE\r\nHEAD OF A CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THIS PATTERN IS YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF\r\nT3.0...45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  IN ADDITION...A 0243 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nWITH THE HELP OF A 0045 UTC TRMM AND A 0155 UTC WINDSAT PASS...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/6.  KEVIN LIES ON THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED BETWEEN IT AND HURRICANE\r\nJIMENA...AND THIS IS CAUSING THE CURRENT NORTHWARD MOTION. \r\nHOWEVER...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND KEVIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THAT TIME.  ONE\r\nCOMPLICATING FACTOR TO THIS FORECAST IS HOW KEVIN WILL INTERACT\r\nWITH THE CIRCULATION OF JIMENA.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nPLAYING A GAME OF PINBALL...PULLING KEVIN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD\r\nJIMENA AND THEN PUSHING IT BACK TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST TOWARD A\r\nNEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER EAST.  THE\r\nHWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE THE ONLY TWO WHICH STILL SHOW KEVIN\r\nTURNING NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION BY\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN STRENGTHENING VERY LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  KEVIN WILL REMAIN OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM\r\nWATER...BUT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nWILL CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALSO...BOTH\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF INDICATE NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND STEADY\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES\r\nTHAT KEVIN WILL BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY HURRICANE JIMENA AND SHOWS\r\nSLOW WEAKENING STARTING AT 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE A COHERENT\r\nVORTEX BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT KEVIN MAY NOT\r\nEXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THEN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 14.1N 121.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 14.7N 121.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 15.5N 121.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 16.2N 120.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 16.9N 120.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 18.3N 119.1W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 19.2N 118.2W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF KEVIN...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE PRIMARY\r\nBAND HAVE WARMED SOMEWHAT THIS MORNING.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AS WELL AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS. THEREFORE...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING\r\nTHIS PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE\r\nGFDL SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN PRODUCED BY JIMENA WILL CAUSE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...ULTIMATELY TO A DEPRESSION BY DAY 5. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A\r\nFEW OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT KEVIN WILL DISSIPATE IN\r\n96 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 015/6...WITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK\r\nSOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENT. DURING THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS...KEVIN SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nPRODUCED BY A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST\r\nFROM BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.\r\nTHIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREES WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF\r\nTHE NOGAPS/GFS/GFDL/UKMET AND ECMWF...UPON WHICH THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 14.8N 121.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.4N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 16.2N 120.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 16.9N 120.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 17.6N 119.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 19.2N 118.3W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N 118.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT KEVIN HAS BEGUN\r\nTO WEAKEN DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR AND A LESS THAN\r\nFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. A 1346 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nAMBIGUITY ANALYSIS REVEALED A SMALL PATCH OF REASONABLE 40 KT WINDS\r\nJUST TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nDATA-T NUMBERS ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS AND A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. KEVIN SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND DAY 4\r\nAS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nTOWARD AN EVEN LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO AND COINCIDES WITH THE SHIPS AND\r\nHURRICANE MODELS.\r\n \r\nKEVIN IS MAINTAINING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION THIS AFTERNOON...360/5.\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW IS PRODUCED BY A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST AND A MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST\r\nFROM SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED BY MID PERIOD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO HURRICANE JIMENA MOVING INTO THE REGION. THIS SHOULD\r\nCAUSE KEVIN TO DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS AGAIN BASED\r\nON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 15.3N 121.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 15.8N 121.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 16.6N 120.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.3N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 17.9N 119.4W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 19.3N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 19.6N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN CONSISTS\r\nOF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION...WHICH IS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER BY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN EARLIER ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA OF UNCONTAMINATED 25-30 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WITH WEAKER WINDS IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 3.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT\r\nPASS...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND A GRADUALLY DETERIORATING\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN PREDICTING A CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING OF KEVIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nSHEAR APPEARS LOW AND THE WATERS SUFFICIENTLY WARM. THE KEY TO THE\r\nWEAKENING APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND\r\nRELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY\r\nDAY 4...IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nKEVIN IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD...WITH THE LATEST MOTION\r\nESTIMATED AT 005/06. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DANGLING WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE\r\nTWO FEATURES WILL CAUSE A NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...ALBEIT IT FAIRLY SLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 16.4N 121.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 16.9N 121.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 17.6N 120.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.3N 119.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 18.9N 119.1W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 20.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n \r\nA 0216 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMED THAT KEVIN HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\n35 KT CONFINED TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND\r\nSCATTEROMETER PASSES.  THE SIZE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BEEN\r\nSHRINKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THIS MAY BE AN INDICATION\r\nTHAT KEVIN MAY NOT CONTINUE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER. \r\nEVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO...ALL THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS KEVIN WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS KEVIN BECOMING A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 015/5.  KEVIN IS BEING\r\nSTEERED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nTO ITS SOUTHEAST AND A SHEAR AXIS TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTH TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THERE IS GREATER\r\nSPREAD IN THE MODEL ENVELOPE AFTER THAT POINT WITH SEVERAL MODELS\r\nSHOWING A WEST TO SOUTHWEST TURN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE LEAD OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS WHICH SHOW KEVIN\r\nDISSIPATING AS EARLY AS 48-72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 16.3N 121.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.8N 121.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.4N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 17.8N 120.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 18.1N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n \r\nKEVIN IS GENERATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION...AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 05Z SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS RELATIVELY DRY...AND THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE\r\nIS UNANIMOUS IN CALLING FOR A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  UNLESS THERE IS A RESURGENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION...KEVIN WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/05.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nLIGHT AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT.  THE GFNI AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS DRAW KEVIN OR ITS REMNANTS EASTWARD BEHIND\r\nJIMENA...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS SHOW A MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL\r\nWESTWARD TURN AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST\r\nA LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 16.7N 121.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 17.2N 121.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 17.7N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 18.3N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n \r\nKEVIN IS FADING FAST. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED\r\nAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. SUBSEQUENTLY...IF THIS\r\nCURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED\r\nTHIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/05...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD\r\nDRIFT WITHIN A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...OR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY TOWARD THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 17.2N 121.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 17.7N 121.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 18.1N 120.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 18.3N 120.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 120.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 18.6N 120.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2009\r\n \r\nKEVIN IS MOSTLY A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF\r\nCONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF AN INCREASINGLY BROAD CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION. AS BEFORE...THERE IS JUST ENOUGH CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION TO MAINTAIN KEVIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY\r\nMID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT\r\nFLOW ALOFT. ALL OF THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT KEVIN SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN IN VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n010/04. THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY STEERING REGIME IN BETWEEN A WEAK ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SHOULD FAVOR A RATHER SLOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN COULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR SOUTHWEST BY LOW-LEVEL RIDGING AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL\r\nRELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO CAPTURE AN\r\nINITIALLY MORE NORTHERLY MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 17.6N 121.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.0N 121.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.6N 121.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.7N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nKEVIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE MOST\r\nRECENT ONE DEVELOPING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  A\r\n0454 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A BAND OF 25-30 KT WINDS OCCURRING\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KEVIN HAS BEEN ISOLATED\r\nFROM ITS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOURCE OF MOISTURE...AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY NOW SHOWS MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nWEAKEN KEVIN...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IT TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW AROUND KEVIN HAS COLLAPSED DUE TO A NEARBY MID-\r\nLEVEL SHEAR AXIS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/4.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES THAT KEVIN SHOULD CEASE ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO AND THEN TURN TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...STILL MOVING\r\nVERY SLOWLY.  LITTLE MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE FORECAST BY 24-48 HOURS\r\nWITH KEVIN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FIELDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 18.0N 121.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.4N 121.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N 121.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 121.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTION WITH KEVIN HAS BEEN WANING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH\r\nONLY TWO SMALL BANDS REMAINING. IN ADDITION...A TRMM PASS NEAR\r\n0844Z SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED WITH TWO POSSIBLE\r\nCENTERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BUT THIS COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS.  A SLOW SPIN-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY DUE\r\nTO INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND\r\nMARGINAL SSTS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nWEAKENING OF KEVIN...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3. THE DEPRESSION IS IN\r\nAN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO CHANGE\r\nFOR 24-36 HOURS UNTIL WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. \r\nTHIS PATTERN CHANGE COULD FORCE A SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nMOTION OF WHATEVER IS LEFT OF KEVIN UNTIL FINAL DISSIPATION.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE RIDGING...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 18.0N 121.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 18.4N 121.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.6N 121.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.7N 121.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 18.6N 122.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 123.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kevin","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP142009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 01 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES REVEAL THAT KEVIN IS A POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW WITH\r\nMULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.  IN ADDITION...\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT SINCE THIS MORNING. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nBEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 25 KT. THE REMNANTS OF KEVIN SHOULD MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...THEN TURN WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A BUILDING\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KEVIN ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 18.4N 122.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 18.7N 122.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 122.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 18.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH INCREASE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE OR\r\nINTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nCENTER WELL TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS. \r\nHOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS WE HAVE OBSERVED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS WRAPPED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON RESPECTIVELY.  A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nFROM 0230 UTC SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION WITH\r\nHIGHEST NON-RAIN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THE\r\nINCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...IT IS BEING UPGRADED TO A\r\n30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nMARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR.  MOREOVER THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND THE PRESENCE OF A NEIGHBORING STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUD DECK INDICATES THAT THE AIR MASS IS NOT PARTICULARLY\r\nUNSTABLE.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED... AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE CONSENSUS OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.  IN THE LATTER HALF OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nCOOLER WATERS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...PERHAPS AT A FASTER RATE\r\nTHAN SHOWN HERE.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER SLOW 285/7.  A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A LITTLE MORE\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W-140W LONGITUDE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ABOUT IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 15.5N 125.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 15.8N 126.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.2N 128.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 129.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 16.9N 129.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 131.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 23.5N 134.5W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 07 2009\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH\r\nDURING THE MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEVELOPED\r\nBAND...WITH MODERATELY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. A 1016 UTC AMSR-E IMAGE SHOWED AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nCIRCULATION WITH A WELL-DEFINED CENTER...IN SPITE OF THE GENERAL\r\nLACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB. GIVEN THE UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES YIELD A RATHER SLOW INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 280/07. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS\r\nBEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNEAR 135W.  WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE IN THE SHORT-TERM...FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AN EVEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ONCE THE\r\nDEPRESSION RESPONDS TO THE WEAKNESS AHEAD OF IT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERS WEAK TO\r\nMODERATE SHEAR. AT THE SAME TIME...HOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT\r\nINDICATES A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES\r\nALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH DO NOT FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ONE...INDICATING A\r\nPERIOD OF MODEST STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nINCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 15.4N 126.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 15.6N 127.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 16.0N 128.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.3N 129.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 16.8N 130.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 18.8N 131.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 23.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RAPIDLY\r\nINTENSIFYING...WITH ITS SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAVING IMPROVED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A WELL-DEFINED BAND HAS\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...RECENTLY WRAPPING \r\nAROUND WHAT COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF A WARM SPOT COINCIDENT WITH\r\nTHE CENTER. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION\r\nAND HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO\r\n50 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF\r\nA RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE A RATHER SLOW 280/07.\r\nLINDA IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 21N112W. THE CYCLONE COULD SLOW EVEN\r\nFURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nEXTENSION OF A TROUGH NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THEREAFTER...AS\r\nTHE WEAKNESS BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED...LINDA SHOULD BE STEERED MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nRELIES MORE HEAVILY ON PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM...DISCOUNTING \r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL...WHICH ALMOST IMMEDIATELY FORECAST A MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE AROUND 10 KT OF WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS LINDA MOVES OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM SSTS. IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR AND A RELATIVELY STABLE\r\nBOUNDARY LAYER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...\r\nINCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS SHOULD\r\nCAUSE LINDA TO BEGIN WEAKENING...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nA REMNANT LOW BY 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE\r\nFIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS\r\nAND THE MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 15.5N 127.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.6N 127.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.2N 130.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 07 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED...AND\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nHOWEVER...AN 1841 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE\r\nCYCLONE INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 45 KT...AND IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THERE COULD BE 50 KT WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 50 KT.\r\n\r\nA 2119 UTC TRMM AND A 2217 UTC AMSU PASS WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AT THOSE TIMES. HOWEVER...THE RECENT CLOUD\r\nMOTIONS HAVE NOT MATCHED THE EXTRAPOLATED MOTION...AND THIS COULD\r\nBE A SIGNAL THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE BECOMING A\r\nLITTLE DISPLACED FROM EACH OTHER. THE INITIAL POSITION...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 275/6...ARE THEREFORE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO AND WILL CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT\r\nSPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF\r\nMAINTAIN A DEEP SYSTEM AND TURN LINDA TOWARD THE NORTH. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nTVCN...AND ENDS UP NEAR THE BAM SHALLOW MODEL BY DAY 5 WHEN LINDA\r\nSHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW. \r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LINDA IS INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE\r\nAIR FROM THE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME ARC CLOUDS TO ITS SOUTH.  IN\r\nADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NO EXPANSION OF THE MOISTURE\r\nCANOPY THAT SHOULD BE MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE STORM. \r\nALL THIS LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THAT ANY SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING WILL\r\nBE LIMITED. THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FOLLOW THIS TREND\r\nAND SHOW LINDA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...OR JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOWER STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nINDICATED...BUT STILL SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.\r\nINCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 15.3N 127.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.4N 128.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.7N 129.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.3N 129.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 130.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE APPEARANCE OF LINDA\r\nTYPIFIES THAT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING WESTERLY SHEAR.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUDS WERE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER\r\nTHIS EVENING...BUT RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A RESURGENCE OF\r\nCONVECTION IN A MORE SYMMETRIC SHAPE AROUND THE CENTER.  OVERALL...\r\nHOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nSINCE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE AT 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB AND ARE USED AS A BASIS TO MAINTAIN\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nAN 0413 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS USEFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. THAT PASS\r\nALONG WITH RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n265/07. LINDA REMAINS IN A WEAK-STEERING ENVIRONMENT...DOMINATED BY\r\nWEAK RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA SOUTHWESTWARD TO 130W. AS THE\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...LINDA SHOULD\r\nTURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THEREAFTER...\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES...WITH THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL/ECMWF INDICATING\r\nEITHER A WEAKER RIDGE/MORE ROBUST TROUGH OR A STRONGER LINDA...AND\r\nTHEREFORE TURN LINDA MORE NORTHWARD EARLIER. THE UKMET/NOGAPS/\r\nCANADIAN MODELS DIFFER BY SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND STRONGER\r\nRIDGING...WHICH LEADS TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ADJUSTED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO LEFT DUE TO PERSISTENCE IN THE SHORT-TERM AND THEN\r\nTO THE RIGHT LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH LINDA WAS DEVELOPING AT A MORE RAPID PACE EARLIER...THE\r\nCYCLONE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT\r\nAS A RESULT OF SEVERAL FACTORS.  THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND\r\nWARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS NEGATIVE INFLUENCES ON FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS SEEMS ENOUGH TO\r\nPREVENT MUCH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AWAY FROM THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF\r\nPREDICTIONS AND MORE CLOSELY MATCHING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 15.2N 128.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 15.9N 129.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 16.7N 130.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 130.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 24.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nIS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH DUE SHEAR. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND\r\nSTILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS...AND THIS ESTIMATE\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND STAYS AWAY FROM THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nMODEL PAIR THAT FORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nLINDA HAS BEEN MEANDERING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nRIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SOON AND THEN NORTHWARD WITH\r\nSOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS LINDA OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND\r\nBEGIN TO RECURVE.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 15.2N 128.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.4N 128.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A FEW SPOTS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  IT SEEMS THAT THE SHEAR PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED AND CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE\r\nMORE SYMMETRIC. BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH REMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE AND DATA FROM A QUIKSCAT PASS A FEW HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO\r\nA SMALL AREA ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY\r\nTO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. IF FACT...THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SOON AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE AGAIN THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR FORECAST LINDA TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nLINDA HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE...PERHAPS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT\r\n2 KNOTS...AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nWITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS. BEYOND THREE DAYS...LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO RECURVE WHILE\r\nMOVING LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH APPEARS TO BE RELIABLE FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW FROM THE MID LEVEL AND\r\nWEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND KEEP A WEAK LOW MEANDERING IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES.\r\n  \r\nTHE WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT DATA. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 15.5N 128.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 15.7N 128.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 130.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 24.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 25.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF LINDA IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED THIS\r\nEVENING.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN INCREASE IN BANDING NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n55 KT...AND THERE ARE SEVERAL AMSU ESTIMATES OF 55-65 KT.  THUS...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS\r\nFAIR TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SLOW AT 330/2.  LINDA IS SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...AND WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N127W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 22N140W. \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF LINDA AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE\r\nFASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...\r\nTHE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS TO WHERE THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nLINDA WILL GO AS THE CYCLONE SHEARS APART OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THE HWRF...GFS...AND THE BAM MODELS FORECAST LINDA\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND\r\nTHE CANADIAN CALL FOR A WESTWARD TURN.  THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA NORTHWARD TURN IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND HWRF...BUT AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE OVERALL\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HR.\r\n\r\nLINDA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR\r\nJUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND SOME OF THIS AIR MAY BE ENTRAINING\r\nINTO THE CIRCULATION.  THIS COULD BE SLOWING THE DEVELOPMENT IN AN\r\nOTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HR...AND THE OTHER\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS SOME STRENGTHENING.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST\r\n12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  LINDA IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HR...AND TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 15.6N 128.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.2N 129.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 130.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.8N 130.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 22.0N 132.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 25.0N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LINDA HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN T3.5 OR 55 KT...WHICH IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LINDA\r\nREMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT QUITE\r\nEXPANSIVE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT VERTICALLY ALIGNED AS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. \r\n\r\nDESPITE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE PREDICTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IS\r\nBELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH BRING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IN 24-36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER WATER.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. \r\nTHEREAFTER...LINDA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND INTO A MORE HOSTILE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS LINDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/2.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AT THE SAME TIME...A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW LINDA TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE\r\nFIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nSHOWS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH A FEW OF THE MODELS\r\nTURNING LINDA WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. \r\nTHE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5 KEEPS LINDA ON A SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...HWRF...GFS...AND BAMS\r\nSOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nIT SEEMS THAT NINES MUST BE WILD THIS MORNING...AS THIS HAPPENS TO\r\nBE THE 9TH ADVISORY ON LINDA AT 0900 UTC ON 9/9/09.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 15.8N 128.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 16.5N 128.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 17.7N 129.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 22.2N 132.1W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 23.5N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 25.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. THE\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT SYMMETRIC AND IS LOCATED PRIMARILY NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS DEFINED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS\r\nREMAIN 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES\r\nAT 55 KNOTS. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION BEGINS TO REACH COOLER WATERS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD START THEREAFTER AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nLINDA BEGAN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n325 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPING\r\nEAST OF LINDA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED.   MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO DIVERGE WITH ONE GROUP\r\nTAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THE OTHER SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THE FIRST GROUP WHICH\r\nCONSISTS OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL GFS/ECMWF...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR AND\r\nTHE CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 16.5N 128.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 129.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 130.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 20.7N 131.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 22.5N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 23.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 25.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009\r\n \r\nLINDA IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA. THERE IS A HINT OF AN EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...WITH A\r\nRING OF CONVECTION ON MICROWAVE DATA. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KNOTS BASED ON T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB RESPECTIVELY. LINDA STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSLIGHTLY AND BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...AND BEFORE THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nSTART AND LINDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT\r\n96 HOURS OR EARLIER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH IN FACT DISSIPATES LINDA BEYOND\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 3 KNOTS. MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF LINDA AND\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES ALREADY SHOW A LARGE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY TO\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE TROUGH MOVES\r\nEASTWARD. LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD THEN MOVE VERY LITTLE.\r\nTHE SPREAD IN TRACK GUIDANCE IS EVEN LARGER THIS AFTERNOON\r\nINCREASING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...PRIMARILY BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 16.7N 129.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.7N 129.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 19.0N 130.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 20.0N 131.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 132.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N 133.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 24.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2009\r\n \r\nLINDA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING.  AN EYE HAS\r\nBECOME APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND AN AMSU\r\nOVERPASS AT 0030 UTC SHOWED A BETTER DEFINED EYEWALL THAN A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n65 KT FROM SAB...AND THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL AMSU ESTIMATES OF\r\n65 KT OR GREATER.  BASED ON THIS...LINDA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE\r\nWITH 70 KT WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/5.  LINDA IS SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...\r\nWITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF IT.  THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL FEATURES ARE TRYING TO STEER THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS TRYING TO STEER IT MORE\r\nWESTWARD.  THIS IS RESULTING IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...\r\nWHICH SHOULD CONTINUE AS LONG AS LINDA KEEPS ITS VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nSTRUCTURE.  THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL BE FOR ABOUT\r\n48-72 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE ECMWF...GFDN...\r\nNOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LINDA TURNING MORE\r\nWESTWARD...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL SHOW A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION.  THIS SPREAD SUGGESTS THAT THE MOTION SHOULD BE\r\nSLOW...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES BY SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER LINDA...AND SIMILAR SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C AND\r\nCOLDER.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD\r\nEND SOON...AND THAT LINDA SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AFTER 12-24 HR.\r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND CALLS FOR LINDA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 24\r\nHR...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HR...AND A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 96 HR.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE STRONG ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACKS OF THE ECMWF AND THE OTHER WESTWARD-MOTION MODELS...SO EVEN\r\nIF LINDA AVOIDS THE COLD WATERS NORTH OF 20N IT IS STILL LIKELY TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BEFORE 120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 17.1N 129.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 18.1N 130.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 19.3N 131.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 20.2N 131.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 21.2N 132.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 22.5N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 23.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2009\r\n\r\nTHE EYE DISAPPEARED FROM GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES AROUND 0300 UTC. \r\nSUBSEQUENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICTED A PARTIAL EYEWALL THAT WAS\r\nOPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nSLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED IN APPEARANCE AND ELONGATED FROM SOUTH TO\r\nNORTH...INDICATIVE OF SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.   \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OR\r\nTROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF LINDA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nEAST...AND THESE FEATURES ARE LIKELY PRODUCING THE SHEAR.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS PREDICT THE TROUGH TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WITH STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR IN\r\nTHE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS UNFAVORABLE\r\nDYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...ALONG WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLING\r\nBELOW 24 DEG C IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST GOES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nOBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE IMAGE DATA INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nAND WEST OF WHERE IT APPEARS TO BE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES. \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...325/7.  LINDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nDEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO THE NORTH OF LINDA. \r\nALTHOUGH THIS COULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAYS\r\n4-5...LINDA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BY THAT TIME.  THESE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nPREDICTED TO BE VERY WEAK...SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nVERY SLOW MOTION FROM 72-120 HOURS.  THIS IS ONLY SLIGHTLY WEST OF\r\nAND A TAD SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 17.8N 129.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 18.8N 130.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 20.1N 131.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 21.0N 131.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 21.6N 132.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 22.4N 133.5W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 23.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 23.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2009\r\n\r\nENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN AQUA-1 AMSR-E COLOR\r\nCOMPOSITE MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT LINDA HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nSOME THIS MORNING. DESPITE 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...THE\r\nCYCLONE STRUCTURE IS COMPRISED OF IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMI-CIRCLE AND A 90 PERCENT CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 75 KT...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK AND AMSU TC\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE WITH A\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY A REPEAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE ICON\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 330/8 KT...WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF\r\nLINDA AND A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS. BEYOND DAY 3...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AND THE GFDN/GFDL\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TO THE NORTH OF\r\nLINDA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. AS A\r\nRESULT...LINDA SHOULD SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD COMPONENT AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON THIS SCENARIO AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL BLEND. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 18.4N 130.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 19.4N 130.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 20.6N 131.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 21.3N 132.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 21.7N 132.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 23.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2009\r\n\r\nA 1623 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS RETRIEVED FROM THE NRL MONTEREY\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE INDICATES A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE\r\nFEATURE DISPLACED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY ENCLOSED\r\nSURFACE EYEWALL. SUBSEQUENTLY...MOST OF THE EYEWALL AT THE SURFACE\r\nHAS ERODED...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...DUE TO\r\nPERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SHEAR. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 65 KT...AND AN EARLIER SATCON ANALYSIS FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS ALSO SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE HAD REACHED ITS PEAK\r\nINTENSITY. BASED ON THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION TRENDS AND ALL OF\r\nTHE AVAILABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 65 KT. LINDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nTO WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER OCEAN WATERS. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE\r\nAROUND MID PERIOD...FURTHER ACCENTUATING THE WEAKENING TREND. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 340/08...WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY\r\nFLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF LINDA AND A\r\nDEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...LINDA SHOULD COMMENCE A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DRIFT WITHIN THE PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH\r\nTHE TVCN DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 19.4N 130.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 20.5N 130.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 21.6N 131.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 22.3N 132.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 22.6N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 23.0N 133.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 23.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2009\r\n \r\nLINDA APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER SUB 26C\r\nWATERS AND ENCOUNTERS AROUND 20 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A THINNING OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST AND WARMING\r\nCLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 2010 UTC TRMM PASS AND A 2140\r\nUTC AMSR-E PASS SHOW CONTINUED VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nIS 55 KT...A LITTLE LOWER THAN A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT T-NUMBERS DUE TO\r\nTHE DEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM. LINDA WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 24C AFTER 24 HOURS...WHICH IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATION IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE BEHIND PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07...AS LINDA IS BEING STEERED\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCENTERED NEAR 23N142W AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED\r\nNEAR 22N117W. AS LINDA BECOMES AN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT\r\nWILL DECOUPLE FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. IF LINDA IS STILL AROUND NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD...IT COULD BE PULLED NORTHWARD BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST. ALTERNATIVELY...IT COULD TURN\r\nWESTWARD IF THAT TROUGH PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nTOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BEFORE SHOWING A VERY SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 19.9N 130.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 20.8N 131.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 21.7N 131.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 22.1N 132.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 22.3N 132.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 22.5N 133.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n\r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0421 UTC\r\nINDICATE THAT LINDA HAS SHEARED APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nNOW PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA AT 0228 UTC AND ASCAT DATA AT 0628 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL\r\n40-45 KT WIND VECTORS...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 45 KT.  A COMBINATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C SHOULD CAUSE\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING...WITH LINDA EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR.  IF THE\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT MAKE A COMEBACK...THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN\r\nFASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/5.  THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS LINDA TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HR OR SO ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 22N141W AND\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AS\r\nLINDA WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...WITH THE GFS-BASED MODELS CALLING\r\nFOR A NORTHWARD MOTION AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE CALLING\r\nFOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nCOMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD DRIFT AFTER\r\n72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 20.0N 130.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 20.6N 131.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 21.3N 132.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 21.7N 132.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 22.0N 132.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 22.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 22.5N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LAST ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LINDA FADED\r\nBETWEEN 00 AND 06Z.  SSTS OF 25C...SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRY\r\nENVIRONMENT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT RESURGANCE UNLIKELY...AND UNLESS\r\nTHIS OCCURS LINDA WILL BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT ASSUMING SOME WEAKENING HAS\r\nOCCURRED SINCE THE 06Z ASCAT PASS...AND A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECAY\r\nIS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOW APPARENT ON MULTI-CHANNEL IR IMAGERY AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 330/5.  A TURN TO THE LEFT IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH OF LINDA IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE BREAKS DOWN THIS LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS CAUSES SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE TO TURN THE REMNANTS OF LINDA NORTHWARD AGAIN.  THE UKMET\r\nAND ECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...TURN LINDA IMMEDIATELY AND SHARPLY\r\nWESTWARD AND KEEP IT ON THIS HEADING.  THIS IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE\r\nGIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION...BUT AT THE MOMENT I PREFER A\r\nCOMPROMISE SOLUTION THAT MAINTAINS CONTINUITY WITH THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 20.6N 130.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 21.2N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 21.7N 132.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 22.2N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 22.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 23.0N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 23.5N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n \r\nLINDA CONTINUES AS A VIGOROUS BUT CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION...AND\r\nA FEW MORE HOURS OF THIS WILL RESULT IN THE TERMINATION OF\r\nADVISORIES.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 15Z CAUGHT JUST ENOUGH OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION FOR ME TO PRESUME THAT SOME TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nREMAIN...BUT WITHOUT ANY ACTIVE CONVECTION THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nLAST LONG.\r\n \r\nIT DOES APPEAR THAT THE MOTION HAS SWUNG OVER A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT...OR ABOUT 310/5...AS LINDA RESPONDS TO THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nFLOW.  IN ADDITION...THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS LESS EMPHATIC ON THE\r\nNORTHWARD TURN DISCUSSED EARLIER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL SOLUTIONS.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE BODY OF GUIDANCE\r\nTHAT IS EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 20.7N 131.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 21.1N 131.9W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 21.4N 132.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 21.6N 133.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 21.7N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 22.0N 134.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Linda","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP152009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 11 2009\r\n \r\nDESPITE MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION OF LOW AND\r\nMID LEVEL CLOUDS...LINDA HAS BEEN ABSENT OF ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR WELL OVER 12 HOURS AND THEREFORE NO LONGER MEETS THE\r\nCRITERIA TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY ON LINDA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND\r\nDOWN AND ULTIMATELY OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 3 DAYS...OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/04 KT. THE SHALLOW LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITHIN THE FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nPERIPHERY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A CUT-OFF LOW TO\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST. AFTERWARD...IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME AN\r\nOPEN TROUGH...IT SHOULD BEGIN A TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON\r\nTHE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 20.9N 131.7W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 21.1N 132.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 21.2N 133.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 21.4N 133.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 21.6N 134.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 22.5N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-09-16 11:30:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n430 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2009\r\n  \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED. DVORAK T-NUMBER HAVE ALSO INCREASED INDICATING THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE IMAGES LATER THIS\r\nMORNING WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE LOCATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS AND\r\nTHERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION\r\nCOULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE\r\nAFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. IN FACT...THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD BE A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nLIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER\r\nMEXICO AND WILL PROVIDE SOME NORTH-NORTHWEST STEERING TO THE\r\nCYCLONE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF TRACK GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1130Z 18.7N 112.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.9N 112.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N 113.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2009\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A\r\n1305 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SOME BELIEVABLE 35 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM...THE THIRTEENTH OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON.\r\n \r\nMARTY HAS ABOUT A 24-HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nIT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER RATE OF DEMISE.  THE UPDATED INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...\r\nMARTY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 325/3.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MARTY\r\nIS CURRENTLY WITHIN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING FLOW....BUT A WEAK\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nTRACK AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 18.9N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.3N 112.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N 112.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.6N 113.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.4N 113.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 24.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARTY HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE\r\nSINCE THIS MORNING.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS THAT OF A VERY ASYMMETRIC\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 SUPPORT\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT.  A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHERLY...THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR MARTY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY...\r\nTHEREAFTER INCREASING SHEAR AND A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE A MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE\r\nFOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THEN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nMARTY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD SOON \r\nAS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK...AS\r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN MARTY WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 18.9N 112.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.2N 112.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 21.2N 113.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 22.6N 115.3W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2009\r\n\r\nMARTY HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER\r\nTODAY.  VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF THE STORM REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT AND\r\n45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AND THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 40 KT.  VERTICAL SHEAR OVER MARTY IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\nFROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY...BUT REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THUS THERE REMAINS A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN.  OCEANOGRAPHIC\r\nANALYSES SHOW THAT THE WATERS ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF MARTY ARE\r\nSOMEWHAT WARMER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AND THIS COULD HELP THE CYCLONE\r\nMAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A FEW DAYS.  BY AROUND 36 HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES TO THE\r\nNORTH OF 20N LATITUDE.  THEREFORE WE EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND\r\nWITHIN 1-2 DAYS AND MARTY SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY\r\n4 IF NOT EARLIER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES YIELD A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/3.  THERE IS A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS...ESPECIALLY THE LATTER...MAINTAIN MARTY AS A FAIRLY STRONG\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE HWRF TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER BAJA FOLLOWING\r\nTHE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER SINCE THE STORM IS LIKELY TO\r\nWEAKEN DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...ITS STEERING SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY\r\nTHE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION GIVEN BY NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE OTHER AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE THAT TURN MARTY GRADUALLY TO THE\r\nLEFT IN RESPONSE TO A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED JUST A TRIFLE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 19.2N 112.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.6N 112.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 20.4N 113.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 113.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 22.1N 114.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 23.5N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...PERHAPS IT IS A LITTLE BIT LESS ORGANIZED. MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION. QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO...WHEN\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN WAS A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED...SHOWED A FEW RAIN\r\nCONTAMINATED VECTORS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS AND 30 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. MARTY COULD STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE TODAY WHILE THE SHEAR IS LIGHT...BUT UNANIMOUSLY...ALL\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BAND OF UNFAVORABLE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY WINDS OVER MARTY AS SOON AS 24 HOURS. THE FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND MARTY SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72\r\nHOURS OR EARLIER.           \r\n\r\nMARTY APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS\r\nALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR OR SO. A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST SHOULD BEGIN AS MARTY WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE HWRF WHICH BRINGS MARTY NORTHWARD OVER BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA...THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS MARTY TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE HWRF SOLUTION IS NOT\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK OF A WEAKENING CYCLONE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.      \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N 112.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.2N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 24.5N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 17 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AS THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY AND THE OVERALL\r\nSHAPE HAS BECOME ELONGATED.  AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0913\r\nUTC SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  MARTY HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK\r\nINTENSITY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THESE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD\r\nTRANSLATE INTO A WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS AT THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS MARTY BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMARTY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AS\r\nMARTY WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  ALL OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE HWRF...AGREE WITH THIS SOLUTION.  THE HWRF\r\nKEEPS MARTY A DEEP SYSTEM AND MOVES IT INTO THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\nTHIS MODEL IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 19.7N 113.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 20.3N 113.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 21.1N 113.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 114.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 22.8N 115.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 23.8N 117.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2009\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 2.0\r\nRESPECTIVELY FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A\r\nSOLID AREA OF WINDS AROUND 35 KT.  BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.\r\n \r\nMARTY IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND MARTY IS PREDICTED TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nAT OR JUST BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nMARTY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING ON A TRACK BETWEEN NORTHWEST\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...MARTY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH\r\nAND WESTWARD AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 19.7N 113.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.1N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 20.8N 114.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 21.7N 115.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 22.3N 116.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 17 2009\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\nMARTY IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nTHIS EVENING.  THIS IS CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT RAGGED\r\nAPPEARANCE EVEN THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ARE\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT\r\n17/2031 UTC AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES MARTY OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  IN\r\nADDITION...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWS VERY DRY AIR NOT FAR\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE STORM.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE MARTY TO\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR IT\r\nTO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW\r\nBREAKING OPEN INTO A TROUGH BEFORE 96 HR...SO THE NEW 96 HR\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nMARTY IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO TO STEER MARTY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...MARTY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD\r\nAS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nBECOMES THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON THE MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 20.0N 113.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N 114.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 21.4N 115.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 22.2N 116.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 22.6N 117.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 22.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY SHEAR AND NOW CONSISTS OF\r\nA SHAPELESS CLOUD MASS WITH VANISHING CONVECTION TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER WHICH IN FACT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY CAN BE LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...MARTY COULD BE ALREADY WEAKER AT THIS TIME. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW STRONG SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BECOME DECOUPLED WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND MARTY\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 320/5. MARTY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...SO IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nMORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED UNANIMOUSLY BY TRACK GUIDANCE AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 20.4N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 21.8N 116.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 22.5N 117.0W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 22.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 22.5N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARTY OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN\r\nTHIS AREA HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 2.5 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB AT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME INFORMATION\r\nON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF MARTY SHORTLY. VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO INCREASE TO OVER 20 KT\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS...AND MARTY WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER SSTS. ALL OF THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING... WITH MARTY EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nA DAY OR TWO...AND DISSIPATE ALTOGETHER IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM.\r\n\r\nAN AMSU PASS AT 0906 UTC SUGGESTED THAT MARTY WAS LOCATED A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/06. AS MARTY BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM\r\n...IT WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE\r\nWEST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION. THE NEW FORECAST IS ALSO FASTER...TRENDING TOWARD THE\r\nTVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 20.4N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N 115.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 21.8N 116.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 22.4N 118.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 22.5N 119.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 22.5N 122.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WEST OF THE CENTER\r\nOF MARTY...AS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TAKING A TOLL\r\nON THE SYSTEM. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1355 UTC SHOWED A FEW\r\nBELIEVABLE 35-KT AMBIGUITIES...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IF THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nDECREASE...MARTY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A MORE HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASING TO OVER 30 KT BY THAT TIME. THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH A \r\nLESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN MARTY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING BY 3\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES BETWEEN 1300 AND 1400 UTC...INCLUDING\r\nSSMI...SSMIS...QUIKSCAT...AND WINDSAT ALL SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ANALYZED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW A LITTLE EASIER TO FIND\r\nDUE TO THE THINNING CONVECTIVE OVERCAST...AND CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/06 IS A LITTLE HIGHER. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED. MARTY WILL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE WEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION\r\nAS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION...AND TRENDS TOWARD THE FASTER TVCN MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 21.1N 115.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 21.7N 116.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 22.4N 117.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 22.6N 119.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 22.6N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 18 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MARTY HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nLIMITED TO A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBERS ARE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT HIGHER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING IN THE CURRENT...\r\nIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE BURST.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 35 KT. UW CIMSS ANALYSES SUGGEST NEARLY 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS PROVEN ENOUGH TO\r\nWEAKEN MARTY IN SPITE OF ITS TRACK OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS. \r\nACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...MARTY IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER EVEN\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR BEYOND 12 HOURS...NOT TO MENTION PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO MARTY BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nRECENT 0000 UTC FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/08...SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY\r\nUNCHANGED. AS MARTY STEADILY WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF A SURFACE RIDGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nDUE TO THE SLIGHTLY FASTER INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 21.9N 115.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 22.5N 117.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 22.9N 118.8W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 23.0N 120.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 22.9N 122.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009\r\n \r\nTHE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE\r\nLAST CONVECTIVE BURST A FEW HOURS AGO. MARTY HAS BECOME A SWIRL\r\nOF LOW CLOUDS WITH ONE RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  BASED ON T-NUMBERS WHICH HAVE DECREASED TO 1.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE...MARTY IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KNOT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND MARTY SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n24 HOUR OR SO. SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP\r\nINTERMITTENTLY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT\r\n8 KNOTS. SINCE MARTY IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 22.2N 116.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 22.6N 118.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 23.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED CENTER OF MARTY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 0522 UTC SHOWED WINDS\r\nOF ABOUT 25 KT...AND THAT VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. COOLER WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING AND A TRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  MARTY IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST BUT A WESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED\r\nBY THIS EVENING DUE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WITH THE REMNANT LOW LIKELY DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 22.5N 118.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 22.9N 119.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 23.0N 121.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 23.0N 123.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.7N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP162009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009\r\n \r\nMARTY HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0500\r\nUTC...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. MARTY STILL HAS\r\nA WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. AS MARTY MOVES TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW\r\nDISSIPATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nMARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 22.9N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.1N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 23.2N 122.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 23.1N 124.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 22.8N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 22 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nLOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION ORGANIZATION TO BE\r\nDESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE SEVENTEENTH OF THE\r\nSEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS COMPRISED OF AN ELONGATED AND FAIRLY\r\nSHAPELESS MASS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nT 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR SETTING THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY AT 30 KT. WITHIN 24 HOURS... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INCREASING AND SHOULD BECOME PROHIBITIVELY\r\nSTRONG BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING THIS HIGH SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE DEPRESSION HAS SOME OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE\r\nAND DOES NOT CONSIDER THE GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS WHICH CALL\r\nFOR THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THESE FORECASTS APPEAR TO\r\nBE UNREALISTIC..GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nTHERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL IN THE INITIAL MOTION...WHICH\r\nIS ESTIMATED AT 320/08.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 115 WEST AND 120 WEST...WHICH SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE DEPRESSION ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOULD CAUSE A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A REDUCED\r\nFORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 15.7N 115.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 16.4N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 17.3N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.6N 118.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 17.8N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2009\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING\r\nFROM A BLOB OF CENTRAL CONVECTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TO A SPIRAL\r\nBANDING PATTERN...RESULTING IN A MORE ORGANIZED APPEARANCE.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS AT 0218 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST\r\n30 KT AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0537 UTC GENERALLY SHOWED STRONGER WINDS\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION THAN THE QUIKSCAT...BUT STILL SHOWED A\r\nPEAK WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 30 KT.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB WERE 35 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AT 0600 UTC...WITH AMSU\r\nESTIMATES OF ABOUT 40-45 KT.  AFTER CONSIDERING THE IMPROVED\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE AND GENERAL LOW BIAS OF ASCAT...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE SET TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nNORA APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 24-36 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST DUE TO A LARGE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC TROUGH.  THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...HWRF/GFDL...\r\nCONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE MORE THAN THE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF MAKING NORA A HURRICANE BY TOMORROW.   \r\nIT IS WORTH POINTING OUT THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX\r\nDOES SHOW A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOUT 3 TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT REMAINS CLOSER\r\nTO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.   IN THE LONGER-TERM...\r\nTHE HWRF/GFDL PROBABLY SHOW TOO STRONG OF A SYSTEM IN A SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT...A COMMON BIAS OF THOSE MODELS.  COOLER WATERS AND\r\nSTRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING OF NORA INTO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT HAS HELPED SET THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION TO 310/7...THOUGH THE RECENT ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER\r\nCOULD BE MOVING A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT.  A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH IS STEERING THE CYCLONE FOR THE TIME BEING. \r\nTHERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE RIDGE\r\nBUILDS WESTWARD...CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF NORA...OR IF THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nCAUSES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE.  THE GFS/GFDL/ECMWF/HWRF\r\nGENERALLY FAVOR A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS... WHILE THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS SUPPORT A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  MY INCLINATION IS TO LEAN TOWARD THE MORE EQUATORWARD\r\nSOLUTION AS THIS SYSTEM SEEMS UNLIKELY TO GET STRONG ENOUGH TO FEEL\r\nTHE FULL EFFECTS OF THAT TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE LEFT...BUT IS NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO\r\nCONTINUITY CONSIDERATIONS.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE\r\nFORECAST SHIFTED FARTHER WESTWARD LATER TODAY. IN A FEW DAYS...A\r\nMORE SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE RIDGE COULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GAIN\r\nLATITUDE.  HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE QUITE\r\nWEAK BY THAT TIME AND UNABLE TO RESPOND TO THAT STEERING FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 16.1N 116.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.6N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 17.0N 118.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N 119.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.4N 120.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 23 2009\r\n\r\nNORA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS A\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS FORMED WITH AN OUTER BAND IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY FAIR TO\r\nGOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY.  NORA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...AND ALSO SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF NORA.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER NORA GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE MOTION\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDS ON HOW STRONG NORA GETS.  A STRONGER AND\r\nVERTICALLY DEEPER SYSTEM SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS.  A WEAKER AND\r\nSHALLOWER NORA SHOULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nBAMS...GFS...AND ECMWF.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE\r\nLATTER SCENARIO...WITH A SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION AFTER\r\n36 HR.\r\n\r\nNORA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN\r\nIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 24 HR MORE...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE SHEAR AS NORA REACHES COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT NORA SHOULD STRENGTHEN\r\nFOR A DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WEAKENING.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...CALLING\r\nFOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN 24 HR AND WEAKENING TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY 72 HR.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A\r\n25 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HR...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT NORA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE ENCOUNTERING THE STRONGER SHEAR.  THE GFDL AND HWRF SUPPORT\r\nTHIS POSSIBILITY BY FORECASTING NORA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS OCCURS IN BOTH MODELS ONLY AFTER THE STRONGER SHEAR\r\nDEVELOPS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 16.5N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.9N 118.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.1N 119.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 17.2N 120.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.3N 121.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IS DEFINITELY IN AN UPWARD\r\nTREND. THE PATTERN RESEMBLES A NUMBER SIX WITH A WELL DEFINED\r\nCYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH WRAPS AROUND A SMALL\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF SHEAR GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL DIRECTIONS. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THESE NUMBERS...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KNOTS. NORA HAS A DAY OR TWO TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR MAKES\r\nNORA A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO AND ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT\r\nSEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDE NORTH OF NORA WILL\r\nEXPAND WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE NORA TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS BEFORE NORA BECOMES A\r\nREMNANT LOW. IN FACT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS A DEFINITELY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR MOVE NORA ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK\r\nBUT THIS SOLUTION DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC AT THIS TIME WITH\r\nTHE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 16.8N 118.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.2N 119.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.3N 120.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 17.3N 121.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 125.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 23 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF NORA HAS CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE\r\nPAST SIX HOURS.  THE PROMINENT BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WAS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST THAT HAS INCREASED A LITTLE IN SIZE.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRRUS MOTIONS AROUND NORA SUGGEST THAT SOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS MAY BE A BIT SEPARATED.  NONETHELESS...DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...\r\nAND THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS 55 KT.  A BLEND\r\nOF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...THE INTENSITY MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\nHOWEVER...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOW INCLUDING THE GFDL AND HWRF...\r\nSHOWS NORA BECOMING A HURRICANE.  THE STORM IS LOCATED BENEATH A\r\nNARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUT IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO STRONG UPPER\r\nLEVEL WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THESE WINDS SHOULD\r\nULTIMATELY CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING TO OCCUR AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.  THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nFOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN SINCE IT IS NOT\r\nREADILY APPARENT HOW MUCH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS SEPARATED FROM\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  NOW THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF NO LONGER\r\nINDICATE AS MUCH STRENGTHENING...THEIR TRACKS DO NOT SHOW A\r\nPRONOUNCED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND ARE CLOSER TO THE REST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.  AS A RESULT...THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN HAS SHIFTED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS NOW AGREEING\r\nON A WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER SOUTH...BUT IT IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 17.0N 119.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N 120.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 121.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.3N 122.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.2N 123.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.0N 128.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009\r\n \r\nTHE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH NORA DECREASED IN THE HOURS PRIOR TO THE GOES-WEST ECLIPSE\r\nPERIOD. THIS LIKELY OCCURRED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...ALONG WITH A\r\nDRYING TREND IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND A DECREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDIVERGENCE INDICATED BY SHIPS. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL-T\r\nNUMBERS WERE A UNANIMOUS 3.0 AT 0600 UTC...AND ON THIS BASIS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT NORA HAS\r\nPEAKED. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS AT LEAST 15-20 KT OF SHEAR\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE MARGINAL\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN CLOSE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. NORA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND BE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nBASED ON SEVERAL MICROWAVE FIXES AND GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY PRIOR TO\r\nTHE ECLIPSE...NORA APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. A 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/04 WAS\r\nUSED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO. AS NORA WEAKENS...\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 3 OR 4 DAYS AS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS...ALLOWING WHAT IS LEFT OF NORA TO GAIN\r\nSOME LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTH\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND THEN IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5\r\nTHE FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE TVCN\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nAT 0150 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 17.2N 119.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.4N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N 121.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.3N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N 124.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 19.6N 131.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 24 2009\r\n \r\nNORA IS BEGINNING TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\nRECENT TRMM DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS NEAR THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS INCREASED OVER THE\r\nLAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  USING A\r\nBLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT. \r\n\r\nNORA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nITS NORTHWEST.  STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nWATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THESE FACTORS...TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nIN 36 HOURS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER...RESULTING IN A MORE\r\nCONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 290/4. THE STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY\r\nDECOUPLE THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TURNING MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nSHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS\r\nOF NORA IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DUE TO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 17.3N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 120.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 122.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.1N 123.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A DEGRADED CLOUD PATTERN WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. IN\r\nADDITION...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND HAS BECOME MORE LINEAR IN\r\nAPPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nNORA IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF ABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE ANALYSIS FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR DUE TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. NORA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW THROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME...A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nNORA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 17.5N 120.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.4N 121.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.3N 123.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.3N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 17.6N 126.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 18.5N 131.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 24 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NORA IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE LAST LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDISSIPATED BETWEEN 2300 AND 0000 UTC.  DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO T1.5 AND T2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND\r\nTHE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM UW-CIMSS IS T2.0. \r\nNORA IS THEREFORE DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY. \r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE\r\nTO CONTINUED STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.  OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION COULD STILL OCCUR SINCE NORA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER\r\nWATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE\r\nENOUGH TO MAINTAIN IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR NORA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON AND DISSIPATE BY DAY\r\n4...BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nGFS...WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERN OUTLIER...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  NORA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH\r\nOF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST ON DAY 3 DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCAUSED BY A COLD FRONT WEST OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 17.4N 121.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.3N 122.6W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 17.2N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.2N 125.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N 127.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nora","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP172009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 25 2009\r\n\r\nNORA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 2200 UTC\r\nTHURSDAY...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS\r\nTIME. THE LOW COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C.\r\nHOWEVER...INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND A DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM\r\nAROUND 0500 UTC...AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE SHALLOW BAM AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE\r\nGFS. THE END RESULT IS A TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nNORA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 17.1N 123.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.0N 124.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N 126.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.4N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 01 2009\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING AND SHOWS SUFFICIENT\r\nORGANIZATION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES.  THE MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS ALL SHOW A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY DEEPER SYSTEM THAT TURNS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE GFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS WHICH DEPICT A WEAKER\r\nCYCLONE...PREDICT A LATER TURN AND LESS OF A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATER SOLUTION...BUT\r\nDOES SHOW A NORTHEAST TURN BEFORE DISSIPATION...IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE LATER TODAY AND BECOME STRONGER THEREAFTER.  THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL BE ALSO BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 19.0N 117.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.4N 119.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 19.8N 119.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 20.3N 120.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 21.3N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 01 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS \r\nMORNING WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION NOTED IN VISIBLE \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS DETECTED AN AREA OF \r\n30-35 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AND BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE FIFTEENTH \r\nOF THE 2009 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.  OLAF IS CURRENTLY OVER 27-28\r\nDEGREE CELSIUS SSTS...BUT WATER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  ALSO...AS OLAF MOVES TOWARDS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER LATITUDES...IT IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  GIVEN THESE NEGATIVE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  OLAF IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLATEST VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE \r\nCENTER IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AND FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THIS\r\nMORNING.  OLAF IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH ALONG THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nAS TO WHEN AND WHERE OLAF MAY TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MODELS THAT\r\nMAINTAIN A STRONGER...MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM CONTINUE TO\r\nACCELERATE OLAF TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE SOLUTION THAT\r\nOLAF WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THIS WOULD RESULT\r\nIN LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH...AND THEREFORE ONLY A\r\nSLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 20.4N 119.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N 120.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 01 2009\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF OLAF HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND MORE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED IN THE LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION AND PROBABLY HAS REFORMED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nEDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35\r\nKNOTS. OLAF HAS SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...12 TO 24 HOURS...TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND IT MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS. THEREAFTER...OLAF SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n48 TO 72 HOURS. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INTENSIFY OLAF ABOVE\r\n45 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nUNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. OLAF IS\r\nALREADY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nSOON WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\nTHEREFORE...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS INDICATED.\r\nTHIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH\r\nTURNS OLAF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR SO. ONLY THE UK MODEL\r\nMOVES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND THIS SOLUTION IS NOT\r\nOUT OF THE QUESTION IF OLAF BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW SOONER\r\nTHAN EXPECTED...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 20.7N 117.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.2N 118.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 22.0N 118.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 23.5N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 25.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS ASYMMETRIC\r\nSTRUCTURE IS LIKELY DUE TO 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THESE ESTIMATES AND A 0142 UTC QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n \r\nOLAF HAS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. A LARGE-SCALE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA WILL\r\nINDUCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER OLAF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. THIS...COMBINED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. OLAF IS LOCATED AT THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO AND THIS\r\nSHOULD BE THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSHIFT EASTWARD CAUSING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION TO COMMENCE. THIS\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND TO COME IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 0142 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 22.0N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 23.0N 117.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 24.3N 117.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 25.3N 116.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 26.2N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 1008 UTC AQUA-1/AMSR-E MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS FROM THE NRL TC WEBSITE INDICATE THAT OLAF IS BECOMING\r\nMORE VERTICALLY TILTED TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND SURFACE\r\nWINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST SEMICIRCLES.  SHIP\r\n3FXY2...LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...\r\nREPORTED A 37-KT EAST-NORTHEAST WIND AT 1200 UTC.  BASED ON THE\r\nSHIP REPORT AND A BLEND OF THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\n...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND OLAF SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS BASED ON THE SHIPS AND LGEM...SHOWING\r\nDISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 2 DAYS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AND AN EARLIER\r\nSSMIS IMAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. OLAF SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL\r\nNORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE\r\nU.S. AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN SHOULD BRING THE REMNANTS OF OLAF OVER THE CENTRAL WEST\r\nCOAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 24.0N 117.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 25.2N 116.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 26.2N 115.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 27.1N 113.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH OLAF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS THE SSTS OF LESS THAN 25C\r\nARE TAKING A TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. ALSO...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE DECOUPLING FROM THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE 15-20 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEN IN\r\nANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nDVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A 32-KT WIND OBSERVED BY\r\nSHIP 3FXY2 ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 1800 UTC. FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO COOL WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASING TO\r\nMORE THAN 30 KT IN 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS...AND SHOWS OLAF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATING BY 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL TRACK SCENARIO...WITH OLAF TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING THE CALIFORNIA COAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS SLOWER\r\nTHAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE. WHAT IS LEFT OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nRAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 23.8N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 24.8N 116.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 26.0N 115.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 27.0N 113.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 02 2009\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE\r\nCONVECTION AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA.  MOST OF THE THUDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY IS CONFINED TO A FEW CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS NOT UNIDIRECTIONAL YET. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN AND THE FACT THAT OLAF IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND EMBEDDED IN INCREASING SHEAR...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. OLAF IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A\r\nWEAKENING DEPRESSION OR EVEN AS A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nOLAF HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040\r\nDEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY MOVE A WEAKENING OLAF\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nRAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL\r\nPORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 24.5N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 26.5N 113.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 27.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olaf","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nOLAF IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT\r\nIS APPARENT IN SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES. THIS DECOUPLED STRUCTURE\r\nIS DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...\r\nACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. A\r\n0532 UTC HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE\r\n25-30 KT RANGE. BASED ON THIS PASS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...OLAF IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 30 KT. DESPITE SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...OLAF IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\nOLAF IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE AT 010/3. OLAF WILL SHORTLY\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD...IF IT HAS NOT ALREADY...AND ACCELERATE AS IT\r\nMOVES INTO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING OLAF OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA TONIGHT. THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION.\r\n\r\nRAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL\r\nPORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND\r\nTONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 24.1N 117.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 25.3N 116.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 26.5N 114.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N 111.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olaf","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009\r\n \r\nOLAF IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A\r\n130-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 30-KT OBSERVATION FROM\r\nSHIP 3EUS AT 1000 UTC. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING\r\nTO AROUND 40 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN\r\nINCREASING SEPARATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM ANY REMAINING\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE...OLAF SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nSHOULD DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n\r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF OLAF IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 075/07. THIS PLACES THE CENTER WELL SOUTHEAST OF\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS\r\nEXPECTED TODAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION. THE\r\nNEW TRACK FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF AND IS SOUTH\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE\r\nTAKING OLAF TOO FAR NORTHWARD GIVEN THE CURRENT MOTION.\r\n\r\nRAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 24.2N 115.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 24.7N 114.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 25.6N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olaf","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009\r\n \r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OLAF IS DISPLACED ABOUT 180 N MI\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS NOW MOVING\r\nACROSS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF SONORA\r\nAND SINALOA. THE DEPRESSION IS NOW UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE...BUT LA PAZ RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 28 KT\r\nAND A 1406 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS WERE STILL NEAR\r\n30 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.\r\nNOW THAT ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND OLAF SHOULD BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY\r\n36 HOURS ONCE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE DECOUPLED LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING FASTER AND FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AT 095/13...LIKELY DUE TO THE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN BAJA COAST.  THIS\r\nFLOW SHOULD LESSEN AS THE CENTER GETS CLOSER TO LAND...AND THE\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nAND MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. NEITHER THE DYNAMICAL NOR THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS HAVE\r\nCORRECTLY FORECAST THE RECENT EASTWARD MOTION...AND THE RESULTING\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS WELL SOUTH OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSER\r\nTO CLIPER.\r\n\r\nRAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLAF WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 23.8N 113.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 23.9N 111.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 24.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olaf","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP182009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP182009\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 03 2009\r\n \r\nOLAF HAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN HAVE MOVED RAPIDLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND ARE ALREADY\r\nOVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN OVER THE\r\nTERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT COULD STILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND\r\nGUSTY WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 085 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS\r\nAND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\nRAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF OLAF WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON OLAF. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 24.1N 112.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 25.5N 109.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nLOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS\r\nACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...THE NINETEENTH OF THE 2009 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nSEASON. THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND CONSISTS OF A SHAPELESS MASS OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH AND ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST ALONG THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nFAVORS MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHIPS MODEL\r\nOUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE MAIN FACTOR FOR THIS LACK OF DEVELOPMENT\r\nIS A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS IN THE VICINITY\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...WHICH BARELY MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT\r\n4 DAYS OR EARLIER AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nLATEST FIXES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION OF 345/05.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN A WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A\r\nCONTINUED SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREAFTER A\r\nWEAKER...AND MORE SHALLOW...SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 17.3N 108.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 19.2N 109.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 20.3N 109.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2009\r\n \r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE BECAME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE VERY COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  BASED UPON INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND\r\nCONSENSUS T2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.  TROPICAL STORM\r\nPATRICIA IS THE 16TH NAMED CYCLONE OF THIS RELATIVELY BUSY EASTERN\r\nNORTH PACIFIC SEASON.\r\n\r\nA 2055Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS ALONG WITH THE LAST FEW VISIBLE\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGES ALLOWS FOR A MODERATELY CONFIDENT INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/06.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-\r\nLAYERED RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF PATRICIA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER THE CYCLONE IS\r\nPROJECTED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE\r\nRIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AT THE\r\nLONGER RANGE...THE GLOBAL MODELS TEND TO LEAVE A WEAKENING VORTEX\r\nIN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA...WHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS MAINTAIN A\r\nSTRONGER SYSTEM AND ADVECT IT AWAY FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nPATRICIA HAS TWO...PERHAPS THREE...DAYS OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE\r\nIT MOVES NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER \r\nSTRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.  CONVERSELY...THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS ARE MORE MIXED WITH QUITE WARM SSTS ALONG THE\r\nCYCLONE'S PROJECTED TRACK...BUT FAIRLY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nCONDITIONS ANTICIPATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE STATISTICAL LGEM\r\nAND SHIPS MODELS PEAK PATRICIA NEAR 50 KT AT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHILE\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL HWRF AND GFDL MODELS SHOW A MUCH STRONGER CYCLONE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO LGEM/SHIPS...BUT DOES\r\nINDICATE A MORE INTENSE TROPICAL STORM THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 17.9N 108.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 18.9N 108.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 20.1N 109.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 21.1N 109.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 21.8N 109.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF PATRICIA HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES TO ASSIST.  BASED ON EARLIER ESTIMATES...THE\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE T3.0 AND T2.5 RESPECTIVELY...WHICH SUPPORTS INCREASING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 40 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/6.  PATRICIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW PATRICIA TO TURN WESTWARD IN 2-3\r\nDAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING PATRICIA\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nIS LARGE SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE THE FASTEST AND SHOW\r\nPATRICIA NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN 24-36 HOURS. \r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST AND IT DEPICTS A\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT\r\nIS FASTER AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR \r\nAND OVER WARM SSTS.  AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND A MORE \r\nSTABLE AIRMASS.  THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL MODELS ARE IN\r\nREASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50-55 KT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE HWRF REMAINS A LITTLE STRONGER BUT\r\nIT IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF\r\nPATRICIA.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 18.6N 108.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 19.7N 109.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 21.1N 109.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 22.1N 109.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 22.8N 109.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N 111.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LARGE AND EXPANDING MASS OF\r\nCOLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PATRICIA DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE...APPEARS SLOPPY AND NOT PARTICULARLY WELL\r\nDEFINED IN A RECENT AMSR-E PASS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n3.0 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  IN SPITE OF THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PATRICIA...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT\r\n40 KT BASED ON THE LACK OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 04Z. A QUIKSCAT PASS IS\r\nEXPECTED MOMENTARILY THAT SHOULD HELP DETERMINE THE LOCATION AND\r\nSTRENGTH OF PATRICIA.\r\n \r\nRECENT CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE FIXES YIELD A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION OF 325/07.  EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW...\r\nPATRICIA HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE RIDGE FROM THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO REBUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE RIDGE COULD BUILD IN SOONER AND STRONGER...RESULTING IN A TURN\r\nFARTHER SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS SPEEDS THE STORM\r\nNORTHWARD BEFORE RIDGING CAN BUILD IN AND ALLOWS PATRICIA TO BE\r\nPICKED UP BY WESTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH.  ULTIMATELY...HOW CLOSE\r\nPATRICIA TRACKS TO THE BAJA PENINSULA DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW MUCH\r\nNORTHWARD PROGRESS IT MAKES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...JUST\r\nPRIOR TO THE INFLUENCE OF RIDGING TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nBUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nPATRICIA REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SSTS. THESE\r\nTWO FACTORS ALONE SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.\r\nHOWEVER...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A\r\nRELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING...AS PATRICIA INGESTS A\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS DECK OF CLOUDS TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...CALLING\r\nFOR MODEST INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...SHARPLY\r\nCOOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING...AND\r\nPATRICIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 19.1N 109.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 20.3N 109.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.6N 109.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 22.4N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 22.9N 110.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 112.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH PATRICIA BECAME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nRECENTLY BEEN ON THE DECREASE.  IN ADDITION...A BANDING FEATURE\r\nOBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS ALL BUT VANISHED DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  IN SPITE OF THE VERY RECENT DEGRADATION IN THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PATRICIA...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1800 UTC\r\nWERE 3.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.  BASED UPON THESE ESTIMATES...AS\r\nWELL AS EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND ASCAT PASSES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF PATRICIA REMAINS CHALLENGING TO LOCATE...BUT\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A LONGER-TERM\r\nMOTION OF 325/07. PATRICIA IS BEING STEERED ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN\r\nABRUPT TURN TOWARD THE LEFT AS THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nBUILDS WESTWARD AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GFS AND\r\nHWRF...WHICH WERE PREVIOUSLY MAINTAINING SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO THE WEST\r\nAND ARE WITHIN THE SPREAD OF THE REMAINING MODELS.  THIS CHANGE\r\nREPRESENTS PART OF A DEVELOPING TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TO TURN\r\nPATRICIA ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...PATRICIA\r\nHAS BEEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE\r\nOF A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH IS ALSO IMPLIED BY\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS...ALONG\r\nWITH THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...WILL PROBABLY\r\nPREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS PATRICIA MOVES\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE TREND IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO LESSEN THE THREAT\r\nTO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOT REQUIRED FOR\r\nTHAT AREA AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 19.8N 110.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 20.7N 110.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 21.8N 110.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N 111.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N 117.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 12 2009\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO LACK BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND IS CHARACTERIZED PRIMARILY BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nWITH VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE EARLIER TODAY SO THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  PATRICIA IS EXHIBITING\r\nWELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS WEAK SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT ALSO INDICATES THAT STABLE\r\nAND RELATIVE DRY AIR AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS WILL BE INHIBITING\r\nFACTORS FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE\r\nLIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE...IT IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE FOR PATRICIA TO BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE.  IN\r\nFACT...BASED ON HISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS\r\nABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATRICIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS HARD TO PINPOINT BUT BASED ON RECENT\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nEASTWARD.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD\r\nOR 350/5.  PATRICIA HAS BEEN MOVING ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD...AND\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nWITHIN 36 HOURS OR SO.  A LITTLE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nMODELS SHOW THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD WHICH WOULD LIKELY\r\nRESULT IN PATRICIA TURNING TOWARD THE WEST.  THE MAIN CONCERN IS\r\nHOW FAR NORTH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOVE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...AS THIS WILL LARGELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH IMPACT PATRICIA\r\nWILL HAVE ON SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  EVEN THOUGH THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DOES NOT BRING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY CLOSER TO THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON\r\nTHE EXACT PREDICTED TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES.  AT THIS TIME...NO\r\nCHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ARE NECESSARY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 20.0N 109.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 20.7N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 21.6N 110.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N 111.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 22.3N 112.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N 115.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009\r\n \r\nSSMIS...TRMM...AND QUIKSCAT DATA THAT ARRIVED JUST AFTER THE\r\nISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATE THAT PATRICIA MOVED\r\nUNEXPECTEDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nSCATTEROMETER AND TRMM DATA AS WELL AS A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA HAS DISRUPTED THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...RESULTING IN A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nELONGATION OF THE SYSTEM.  PATRICIA CONTINUES TO LACK BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT MORE RECENTLY\r\nA NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. \r\nTHE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOWED SOME BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS AND\r\nTHIS IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.\r\n \r\nA 12-HOUR MOTION ESTIMATE YIELDS AN INITIAL HEADING OF 360/5. \r\nPATRICIA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE LIFTS OUT TODAY.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER\r\nTHERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW SOON THE\r\nRIDGE BUILDS...AND WHEN PATRICIA TURNS WESTWARD.  THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nMODELS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND TAKE\r\nPATRICIA OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nPENINSULA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE AND PREDICT AN ALMOST IMMEDIATE WESTWARD TURN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION AND MORE EASTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.  THIS TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF\r\nAND GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nPATRICIA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  WHILE THESE FACTORS FAVOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...DRY AND STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TODAY...BUT IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS.  THE HWRF IS CONSIDERABLY\r\nSTRONGER AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 20.7N 109.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N 109.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 22.1N 110.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 22.4N 111.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 22.5N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009\r\n\r\nPATRICIA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST IS RAGGED AND ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND NO OUTER\r\nBANDING IS PRESENT.  THE OVERALL CIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.  IN ADDITION...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS\r\nPOOR IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A\r\nPOSSIBLY GENEROUS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST OF DUE NORTH DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HRS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 015/6.  THE LARGE\r\nSCALE MODELS FORECAST THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES TO LIFT OUT...WITH AN EAST TO WEST MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF PATRICIA DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR.  THESE\r\nDEVELOPMENTS SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE EXCEPT THE HWRF.  THAT MODEL FORECASTS PATRICIA TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY AT THE MOMENT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE\r\nTREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CALLS FOR A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...WITH A WESTWARD MOTION LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER CLOSER TO\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH DURING THE\r\nFIRST 12-24 HR.\r\n \r\nPATRICIA IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nOVER WARM WATER...SO THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT\r\nCONVERGENT AT THIS TIME....AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOWS\r\nVERY DRY AIR JUST WEST OF THE STORM.  THE LATTER SHOULD BECOME AN\r\nINCREASING PROBLEM WHEN PATRICIA TURNS WESTWARD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nHOLDS ON TO IT FOR FIVE DAYS WITH SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nFIRST 36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE\r\nMODELS...WITH SLIGHT STRENGTHENING INDICATED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DECAY TO DISSIPATION OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES BY 96 HR.  THE HWRF CONTINUES TO FORECAST A\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER STORM AND REMAINS AN OUTLIER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 21.4N 109.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 21.9N 109.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 22.3N 110.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 22.4N 111.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 22.5N 113.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 22.5N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009\r\n\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA NEAR 13Z SHOWED A 45-50 KT WIND VECTOR ABOUT 45 N MI\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER OF PATRICIA.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED...LEAVING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS PARTLY\r\nOBSCURED BY CIRRUS DEBRIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO\r\n45 KT BASED ON A SLOW DECAY FROM THE TIME OF THE QUIKSCAT DATA...AND\r\nTHIS INTENSITY COULD BE GENEROUS.  WHY THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED\r\nIS NOT CLEAR...BUT UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY\r\nAND STABLE AIR INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST COULD BE REASONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS JUST EAST OF NORTH AT 010/6.  ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST ENOUGH MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING\r\nNORTH OF PATRICIA TO TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHRS...AND THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY.  THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS BRING THE CENTER OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHERN END OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BEFORE THE TURN OCCURS...AND\r\nWITH THE CURRENT MOTION THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED\r\nON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...CALLING FOR THE CENTER TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO SAN LUCAS AREA IN\r\nABOUT 12 HRS.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.  THE NEW TRACK IS JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nPATRICIA REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER\r\nWARM WATER.  THUS...THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A CONVECTIVE\r\nFLARE-UP LATER TONIGHT THAT COULD MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY OF THE\r\nSTORM.  AFTER 12-24 HRS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO THE DRY AIR MASS WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE PATRICIA TO WEAKEN.  \r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...CALLING FOR PATRICIA TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW PATRICIA DISSIPATING\r\nIN 60 HRS OR LESS...SO IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 22.1N 108.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 22.7N 109.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.7N 110.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 22.8N 112.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 22.9N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 23.0N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2009\r\n\r\nPATRICIA IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THEREFORE CANNOT BE\r\nASSIGNED A DATA T-NUMBER VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  HOWEVER A SHIP\r\nWITH CALL SIGN C6FV9 REPORTED 32-KT WINDS ABOUT 75 N MI NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MARGINAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  PATRICIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF STABLE AIR AND OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY...OR LESS.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT IS\r\nOCCURRING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 325/5.\r\nAS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...PATRICIA OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN TO THE\r\nWEST IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK\r\nUNTIL LOSING ITS IDENTITY.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM IS SO CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA...AND TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR THAT AREA ARE ALSO MAINTAINED AT THIS\r\nTIME.  HOWEVER THEY WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT OR\r\nEARLY WEDNESDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 22.6N 109.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.9N 109.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 23.0N 111.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patricia","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP192009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192009\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2009\r\n \r\nPATRICIA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND\r\n1800 UTC...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS\r\nTIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON AN ASCAT\r\nPASS AT 0504 UTC. REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE LOW WILL BE\r\nMOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...TRANSIENT\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...300/05. A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE REMNANT LOW. THIS WESTWARD MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nPATRICIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 22.8N 109.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N 110.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 23.1N 112.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 23.1N 113.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 23.1N 115.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2009-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2009\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE ASCAT\r\nSCATTEROMETER...AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA CENTERED SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\nTHE ASCAT DATA SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT ABOUT 60 N MI\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/11.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS\r\nFEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...AND THIS SHOULD STEER\r\nTHE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING THIS TIME.  THE HWRF AND GFDL...\r\nWHICH ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST BY 120 HR...WITH THE GFDL\r\nFORECASTING THE CENTER TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nNOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND UKMET ARE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE\r\nENVELOPE...AND SHOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR. \r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH 120 HR\r\nPOSITIONS JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF SOCORRO ISLAND.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE TRACK IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND\r\nWITH THE GFS/ECMWF THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATER...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HR.  ALL GUIDANCE IS\r\nFORECASTING SIGNIFICANT AND RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n72-96 HR...WITH THE HWRF FORECASTING THE CENTRAL PRESSURE TO FALL\r\nBELOW 900 MB.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINDICATES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR FAST\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM BY\r\n12 HR...A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN ABOUT\r\n72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD STRENGTHEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL RADII OF 12 FT SEAS ARE BASED ON TWO SHIP REPORTS\r\n130 AND 170 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 12.1N  97.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 12.6N  98.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 13.0N  99.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 13.4N 101.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 13.9N 103.3W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 108.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 111.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 19.0N 112.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":2,"Date":"2009-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E HAS\r\nDEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL STORM RICK.  BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE\r\nWRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER...WITH EVIDENCE OF A PRECURSORY INNER\r\nCORE FORMING FROM A SSMI IMAGE AT 0030 UTC.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...WITH THE LATEST AMSU ESTIMATES\r\nEVEN HIGHER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT AS A BLEND\r\nOF THESE DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEM TONIGHT IS NOT IF RICK WILL\r\nINTENSIFY...BUT HOW QUICKLY.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nEXCEPTIONALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nWITH SSTS OF ABOUT 30C...ABOUT 2C WARMER THAN AVERAGE...LIGHT\r\nSHEAR...AND HIGH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES.  THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX RESPONDS TO THESE CONDITIONS BY SHOWING AN 82\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...ABOUT 11 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE SAMPLE MEAN.  WITH OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE\r\nPERIOD...STARTING FROM A SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 40 KT.   LATER ON...\r\nALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS RICK TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nWITHIN THREE DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE HWRF SHOWS AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM THAN\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST...WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nLIKELY BE MOVING OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AND COULD EXPERIENCE\r\nAN INCREASE IN SHEAR.   THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED\r\nAT THAT TIME...IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. RICK SHOULD BE STEERED BY A\r\nLARGE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...KEEPING THE STORM ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH\r\nCOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN\r\nTHE LONGER-TERM AS THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL/HWRF/\r\nGFDN...SHOW RICK GAINING ENOUGH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO\r\nALLOW IT TO TURN EARLIER AND APPROACH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE REST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONGER FOR A\r\nLONGER TERM PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN RICK REMAINING WELL\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA BY DAY FIVE.  IT IS A LITTLE\r\nUNUSUAL TO SEE THE HURRICANE MODELS HAVE SUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS\r\nFROM THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THAT DOES NOT LEND CONFIDENCE TO THE\r\nFORECAST AT THIS TIME.  THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE\r\nMORE SKILLFUL THAN THE REGIONAL MODELS SO FAR THIS SEASON...AND THIS\r\nTRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 12.4N  97.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 12.8N  98.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 13.3N 100.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 13.8N 102.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 14.3N 104.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 15.7N 109.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 20.0N 112.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":3,"Date":"2009-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009\r\n \r\nRICK CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN\r\nA LARGE CURVED BAND THAT WRAPS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY\r\nAROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A\r\nRAGGED EYEWALL DEVELOPING IN THE LAST FEW INFRARED IMAGES.  BASED\r\nON THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM\r\nTAFB. \r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nFORECASTS SHEAR TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT AND RICK TRAVERSES WATERS\r\nNEAR 30C. THE HWRF SHOWS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nIN 36 HOURS AND THE GFDL IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN BRINGING RICK\r\nTO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. USING A BLEND OF THESE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nAND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICK\r\nREACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND BECOMING\r\nA MAJOR HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND WATERS COOL A\r\nCOUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME\r\nWEAKENING BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nRICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/8 IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS\r\nRIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AT DAY 3 AND\r\nBEYOND...THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nTIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF A SHORTWAVE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE\r\nMODELS...HWRF AND GFDL...REMAIN FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...UKMET AND NOGAPS...REMAIN\r\nON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW LESS OF A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN...OR NONE AT ALL. OVERALL...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AT THESE LATER TIME PERIODS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. BY DAY 5...A\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS MODIFIED\r\nBASED ON A 40-KT WIND OBSERVATION FROM SHIP A8BZ6 LOCATED ABOUT 40\r\nMILES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 12.5N  98.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 12.7N  99.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 13.3N 101.1W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 13.8N 103.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 14.4N 105.6W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 18.0N 112.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":4,"Date":"2009-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009\r\n \r\nRICK IS RAPIDLY SPINNING UP THIS MORNING AS A CURVED BAND OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER.  BASED UPON\r\nTHIS STRUCTURE...THE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME IN FROM SAB AND TAFB AT\r\nT3.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BECAUSE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT\r\nSINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65\r\nKT...MAKING RICK THE 7TH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nHURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nRICK IS MOVING 280/08...WHILE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYERED RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO CONTINUE\r\nSTEERING RICK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS.  AT THE LONGER RANGES...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN WHETHER RICK\r\nWILL CONTINUE AS A STRAIGHT-MOVER...SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY...OR RECURVE\r\nTOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL AND\r\nHWRF...ARE CALLING FOR THE LATTER SCENARIO...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE\r\nBREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN UNREALISTICALLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE LEFT...SOUTHWESTWARD...OF THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nPREDICTION...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS ALSO\r\nSHIFTED SOME TO THE LEFT.\r\n \r\nRICK IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH\r\nABUNDANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL\r\nPRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE SHIPS ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE\r\nHUMIDITY.  RICK IS ALSO TRAVERSING OVER VERY WARM...30C...WATERS. \r\nTHE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH\r\nCHANCE...74%...OF 30 KT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nTHIS IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING RICK'S WINDS TO 90 KT TOMORROW\r\nMORNING.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS FOR\r\nCONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS RICK PEAKING AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. \r\nAT THE LONGER RANGES...THE SSTS ENCOUNTERED BY RICK SHOULD COOL\r\nSOME WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOME.  WEAKENING TO A\r\nCATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IS THUS INDICATED BY DAY 5.  THE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 12.7N  99.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 12.9N 100.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.3N 102.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 13.7N 104.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":5,"Date":"2009-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009\r\n\r\nRICK IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...WITH THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY\r\nINCREASING 40-45 KT SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nNEAR 14Z SHOWED AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING...AND THE EYE HAS\r\nOCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON 18Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY\r\nGOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPACIFIC...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE THE\r\nCASE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HRS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE TRACK FORECASTS BECOME DIVERGENT AT THAT POINT.  THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nBEFORE 120 HRS.  THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND GFDN MODELS SHOW A TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  THE UKMET FORECASTS A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT AS IT\r\nAPPEARS THE MODEL PREMATURELY SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF RICK. \r\nOVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT\r\nAFTER 72 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED SUIT.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HRS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE VARIOUS\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nRICK REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS FORECASTING\r\nPEAK INTENSITIES NEAR 125 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n125 KT IN 48 HRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF.  HOWEVER...\r\nRICK HAS DEVELOPED FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS FORECAST...\r\nAND THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS.  UNLESS\r\nDEVELOPMENT IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AN\r\nALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT RICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN\r\nUNTIL IT APPROACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT\r\nAREA...WHICH IS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.  REGARDLESS OF THE PEAK\r\nINTENSITY...AFTER 48-72 HRS RICK SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nSTART A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 13.0N 100.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 13.2N 101.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 13.7N 103.3W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 105.8W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 108.1W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 113.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":6,"Date":"2009-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS NO APPARENT EYE ON IR IMAGES YET...RECENT SSMI AND\r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A QUITE DISTINCT EYE FEATURE. THIS\r\nNORMALLY IS AN INDICATION THAT THE EYE WILL PROBABLY SHOW UP\r\nCLEARLY ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nCONTINUES TO BE DISTINCT ON SATELLITE WITH A VERY STRONG AREA OF\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND NUMEROUS RAINBANDS. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS OUTSTANDING IMPLYING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON 5.0 AND 4.5\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. MY PREDECESSORS HAVE\r\nDESCRIBED AT LENGTH THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION OF RICK...AND THAT\r\nREASONING HAS NOT CHANGED. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nTO BE MORE FAVORABLE THAN AVERAGE FOR A CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...\r\nAND RICK IS FORECAST TO REACH AT LEAST 125 KNOTS. A SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED ONCE THE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER TO THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nRICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nOVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A DAY\r\nOR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUALLY ERODED BY\r\nTHE EXPANSION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN UNITES STATES.\r\nTHE RESULTING STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH...ULTIMATELY LEADING TO A RECURVATURE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS RICK ON\r\nA WESTWARD TRACK...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE HURRICANE\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND BRINGS RICK DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO OR OVER\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS.      \r\n \r\nINTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STRENGTHENING HURRICANE\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 13.3N 101.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 13.7N 102.4W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N 107.2W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N 109.5W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 18.0N 112.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":7,"Date":"2009-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009\r\n \r\nRICK CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. AN EYE BECAME APPARENT\r\nIN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 0200 UTC AND HAS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOME MORE CIRCULAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSOLIDATED AND NOW CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCDO WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE ALONG WITH SPIRAL OUTER\r\nRAINBANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 100 KT...IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE 0600 UTC DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN IDEAL FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO REMAIN\r\nLIGHT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS RICK TRAVERSES WATERS AROUND 30C.\r\nTHE HWRF IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL...BRINGING RICK TO CATEGORY\r\nFIVE INTENSITY IN ABOUT A DAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE \r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS RICK PEAKING AT CATEGORY 4\r\nSTRENGTH AROUND 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE NHC INTENSITY PROBABILITY\r\nTABLE SHOWS THAT THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF RICK\r\nREACHING CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS ALSO\r\nWORTH NOTING THAT INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY OF RICK IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS\r\nARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nCOOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...AS RICK IS BEING STEERED BY\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THEREAFTER...A MID-TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG\r\n160W IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THIS TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW RICK TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS REMAIN ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE UKMET IS FAR TO THE LEFT AND IS\r\nCONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE AN UNREALISTICALLY\r\nSHALLOW REPRESENTATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT DOES NOT\r\nRESPOND TO THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 13.9N 102.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":8,"Date":"2009-10-17 10:15:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n315 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE CURRENT AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY OF RICK...WHICH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A\r\nREMARKABLE PACE. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY ARE AT LEAST 6.0...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 115 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.  FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SHARPLY UPWARD. THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK NEAR CATEGORY 5 STATUS IN 24 HOURS\r\nFOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.  INNER CORE DYNAMICS MAY ALSO\r\nCAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO...AND THESE FLUCTUATIONS ARE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST. AT\r\n48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE ALSO\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODIFICATIONS TO\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1015Z 14.0N 102.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 14.3N 103.7W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 14.9N 106.1W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 15.7N 108.5W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.5N 110.4W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 18.4N 112.7W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N 112.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":9,"Date":"2009-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009\r\n \r\nRICK HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASING TO 127 AND 115 KT\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  IN ADDITION...AUTOMATED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES\r\nFROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE 127 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A LITTLE\r\nWARMING OF THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HRS...AND\r\nRECENT SSM/I IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL\r\nIS FORMING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF\r\nTHESE ARE SIGNS THAT RICK IS PEAKING IN INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nRICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE\r\nNEXT 18-24 HRS.  THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM\r\nPOTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT AREA.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN\r\n12-24 HRS.  AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY\r\nINCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FOR\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD\r\nCAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND\r\nINDICATED IN THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  RICK REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW\r\nRECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE FROM 48-120 HRS.  AFTER\r\n48 HRS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND.  THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HRS...AND THEN IS DOWN THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 14.2N 103.0W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 14.7N 104.9W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.3N 107.4W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 16.2N 109.5W   135 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 17.1N 111.2W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 24.5N 110.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":10,"Date":"2009-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009\r\n \r\nRICK IS STILL INTENSIFYING...WITH THE 10 NM WIDE EYE BECOMING BETTER\r\nDEFINED AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COOLING DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT\r\nAT 18Z...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT BASED ON\r\nTHIS AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  QUIKSCAT DATA NEAR\r\n14Z INDICATED THAT RICK IS GROWING LARGER IN SIZE...AND THE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nRICK SHOULD REMAIN IN A NEARLY-IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR AND OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 18\r\nHRS OR SO. THUS...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE OCCURS OR IT REACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOR THAT AREA. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH CATEGORY FIVE STATUS IN ABOUT 12\r\nHRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT...GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLING SSTS AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD START A STEADY\r\nWEAKENING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH\r\nLAND INTERACTION ALSO BECOMING A FACTOR DURING THE 96-120 HR\r\nPERIOD. EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY SUPERIMPOSED ON THE GENERAL TREND INDICATED IN THE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  RICK\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER 48 HRS AS A STRONG\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER RICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHRS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nFROM 48-120 HRS.  THE 12Z DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST RICK TO MOVE\r\nFASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER RECURVATURE THAN THEIR\r\nEARLIER RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF...GDFL...AND HWRF MODELS NOW\r\nFORECASTING RICK TO PASS NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nMAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 96 HRS.  THE GFS...\r\nNOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SAME GENERAL TRACK BUT AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD\r\nFROM AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR\r\nRICK TO BE NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 96 HR AND THEN\r\nMAKE LANDFALL IN NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 120 HR.  IF CURRENT\r\nMODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS\r\nHURRICANE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 14.8N 104.5W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.3N 106.5W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.9N 111.7W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 22.5N 111.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N 108.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":11,"Date":"2009-10-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE\r\nWORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE\r\nCOULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nEYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE\r\nHURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nOBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4\r\nDURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE\r\nSECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER\r\nLINDA IN 1997.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH\r\nTONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nFLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nOVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nRICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW\r\nSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR\r\nSO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM\r\nMEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH.  THIS\r\nNEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS\r\nRICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE\r\nIN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST\r\nAT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND\r\nAND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W   155 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W   160 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W   150 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   140 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":12,"Date":"2009-10-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RICK IS MAINTAINING AN EXTREMELY\r\nWELL-DEFINED 15 N MI DIAMETER EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS.  THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS QUITE EXTENSIVE AS WELL. \r\nBOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE CLOSE TO 7.5\r\nWHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 155 KT...I.E.\r\nCATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE TRYING TO FORM WHICH COULD PRESAGE AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AND POSSIBLY SOME WEAKENING.  IN ANY EVENT...\r\nRICK HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY AS IT WILL BE\r\nMOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE TRACK OF RICK...GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-30 KT IN ITS 3-5 DAY\r\nPREDICTION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THOSE MODELS\r\nAND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS THEREAFTER...TO ALLOW FOR THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE WILL NOT BE AFFECTED SO MUCH BY THE\r\nSHEAR. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...285/12...CONTINUES ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. \r\nTHERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO. \r\nRICK IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA IN A DAY OR\r\nTWO...SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nOVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN\r\nREASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RICK WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAND NORTHEASTWARD.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL REMAINS THE OUTLIER\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IN THAT IT SHOWS LITTLE MOTION BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS AND IS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SHOWS A\r\nTRACK OVER SOUTHERN BAJA AND WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER\r\nPART OF THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BEAR\r\nIN MIND THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN LANDFALL LOCATION AND TIMING ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE 4- AND 5-DAY TIME FRAME.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FIVE\r\nSTRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA...IT COULD STILL BE\r\nQUITE POWERFUL BY THAT TIME.  INTERESTS IN THAT AREA AND ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.3N 107.2W   155 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.9N 109.0W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 111.7W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 19.1N 112.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 28.0N 104.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":13,"Date":"2009-10-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RICK APPARENTLY PEAKED BETWEEN 0200\r\nAND 0400 UTC THIS MORNING. SINCE THAT TIME...THE WARM EYE\r\nTEMPERATURE HAS FLUCTUATED BETWEEN 10 AND 13 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS WHILE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY\r\nIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 1230 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A WEAKENING\r\nOF THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AND FRAGMENTS OF A DEVELOPING OUTER\r\nRING.  IF THE INNER EYEWALL WEAKENS FURTHER...RICK COULD WEAKEN MORE\r\nQUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE. GIVEN THAT THE OBJECTIVE ADVANCED\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY 3-HOUR TREND SUGGESTS SLIGHT WEAKENING...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 150 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING\r\nSHEAR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nAFFECT THE SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 5 AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN\r\nHEDGES MORE TOWARD THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/12...AS RICK IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN AN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TO CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS RIDGE\r\nWILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO CALIFORNIA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS CHANGE IN THE\r\nSYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE RICK TO TURN NORTHWARD. BY\r\n48 HOURS AND BEYOND RICK SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE TROUGH\r\nDIGS SOUTH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF\r\nAND THE UKMET...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO\r\nINDICATE A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. CONSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AFTER 48\r\nHOURS BUT REMAINS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...RICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A POWERFUL HURRICANE AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  INTERESTS IN\r\nTHAT AREA AND ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 15.8N 108.3W   150 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N 109.8W   150 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 17.6N 111.1W   140 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 18.6N 111.7W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 19.9N 111.6W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W    85 KT...INLAND OVER BAJA\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 107.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":14,"Date":"2009-10-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RICK\r\nCONTINUES TO SLOWLY DETERIORATE. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AROUND\r\nTHE EYE...AS THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST TOPS HAS DECREASED.  \r\nALSO...THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD HAS THINNED...WITH A\r\nTONGUE OF DRY AIR EVIDENT IN VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY ABOUT 100\r\nMILES FROM THE CENTER. CONSISTENT WITH THESE TRENDS...SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED. DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS\r\nWERE 6.5/7.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 140 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nWHILE THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND RICK REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A DOWNWARD TREND IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...BUT STILL LIES\r\nABOVE THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND RICK WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BEYOND 24 HOURS IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS...LGEM...AND THE GFDL. RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A\r\nHURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BAJA AND WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER\r\nLANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. RICK IS CURRENTLY SITUATED\r\nSOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO. THIS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ALONG 135W AMPLIFIES AND\r\nMOVES INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL FORCE RICK TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THERE IS\r\nSOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT THE HOW QUICKLY RICK WILL MOVE AS IT\r\nRECURVES. BY 72 HOURS...THE ECMWF...GFDL AND GFDN ARE CONSIDERABLY\r\nFASTER...WHILE THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODEL ARE SLOWER.\r\nTHIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF HOW\r\nRICK INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH WEAKENING IS FORECAST...RICK IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN\r\nTWO OR THREE DAYS. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA AND ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RICK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.4N 109.4W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 18.3N 111.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 19.4N 111.9W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 20.7N 111.4W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 26.0N 106.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":15,"Date":"2009-10-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2009\r\n \r\nDRY AIR AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...LOCATED BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nLAYER...HAVE CONTINUED TO ERODE THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...AND A 2101 AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE HAD A PARTIAL CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE.  THE\r\nDEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN DVORAK FINAL-T AND\r\nCI NUMBERS OF 6.5/7.0 FROM TAFB AND 6.0/7.0 FROM SAB.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS NOW 6.1/6.7...\r\nAND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 125 KT.\r\n \r\nRICK IS TURNING NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305 DEGREES\r\nAT 11 KT NOW THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH HAS BEGUN TO\r\nWEAKEN.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES EAST AND\r\nAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAS A RESULT...THE EVOLVING STEERING FLOW WILL TURN RICK TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ONLY THE\r\nUKMET CONTINUES TO SHOW A WESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...AND A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTS THAT RICK WILL\r\nACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY DAY 3.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THAT CONSENSUS AND NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND INGESTION OF DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR\r\nLOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA LITTLE FASTER IN WEAKENING RICK THAN WAS SHOWN IN PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS...BUT THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ALREADY LOWER THAN EXPECTED.  MOST IMPORTANTLY...RICK\r\nIS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IN\r\n2 TO 3 DAYS.  A 96-HOUR POSITION IS SHOWN TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT A WELL-DEFINED\r\nSURFACE CENTER WILL EXIST AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nEARLY MONDAY.  INTERESTS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN BAJA AND ALONG THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF RICK.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 17.0N 110.3W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.9N 111.2W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 19.0N 111.8W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 20.2N 111.6W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 21.7N 110.6W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 25.0N 107.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 26.5N 106.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":16,"Date":"2009-10-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009\r\n\r\nAS RICK MOVES THROUGH A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS DEGRADED FURTHER WITH THE EYE NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCERN\r\nIN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT\r\nDRIER AIR IS INTRUDING FROM THE WEST INTO THE CIRCULATION.  \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED OVER THE HURRICANE...AND \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING RESTRICTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS SOMEWHAT OF A GUESS SINCE THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE HAS BEEN KNOWN TO NOT WORK VERY WELL FOR WEAKENING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES.  BLENDING THE T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDED 115 KT AT 0600 UTC AND SINCE THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THEN THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE RICK LATER TODAY AND SHOULD\r\nPROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE HURRICANE.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SO HOSTILE AS TO\r\nWEAKEN RICK BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE TIME IT MOVES NEAR OR\r\nOVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nA LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOME MORE AND IS NOW NEAR 305/9.  THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH CALIFORNIA.  A\r\nSECOND SHORTWAVE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DROP INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. IN A DAY OR SO.  RICK IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nINTO THE WEAKNESS CAUSED BY THE FIRST TROUGH.  THEN...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD VEER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND\r\nTROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE RUN.   THE ENVELOPE\r\nOF THIS SUITE IS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TRACK...WHICH IS THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST MODEL AND THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH IS THE NORTHERNMOST. \r\nTHE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL CONTINUES TO BE AN UNREALISTIC-LOOKING\r\nOUTLIER SINCE IT SHOWS LITTLE NET MOTION OF RICK OVER THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. \r\n\r\nSINCE RICK COULD MOVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EXPECTED AND THE CURRENT\r\nAND PREDICTED EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 17.5N 111.1W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 19.5N 112.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 22.3N 110.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 25.5N 107.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":17,"Date":"2009-10-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2009\r\n\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND UW-CIMSS...APPEARS TO BE TAKING A TOLL ON RICK. THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH AN EROSION OF THE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE DISAPPEARANCE OF THE\r\nEYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. AN AMSR-E PASS FROM 0913 UTC SHOWED\r\nTHAT THE SOUTHWESTERN EYEWALL HAS ERODED AND ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING VERTICALLY TILTED. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICK\r\nAND WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE THE INTENSITY AND\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT RICK WILL BE EXPERIENCING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT\r\nFOR A BRIEF REDUCTION BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. GIVEN THIS...ALONG\r\nWITH CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BUT REMAINS ABOVE THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO ICON AND SHOWS RICK WEAKENING TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN 72 HOURS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. RICK\r\nSEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE WEAKENS DUE TO A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIGGING INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A SCENARIO\r\nTHAT SHOWS RICK ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO\r\n...WHERE THE CIRCULATION OF RICK BECOMES VERTICALLY DECOUPLED\r\nLEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND...IS REPRESENTED BY THE UKMET\r\nMODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FIRST\r\nSCENARIO...AND IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST BEYOND 12 HOURS TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN THE FIRST\r\n12 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON INFORMATION FROM AN\r\nASCAT PASS AT AROUND 0500 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 17.8N 111.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 18.6N 112.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 19.7N 111.9W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 21.1N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 22.8N 109.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 106.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rick","Adv":18,"Date":"2009-10-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT RICK HAS WEAKENED QUICKLY. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 76\r\nKT WAS FOUND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHILE THE PEAK SFMR\r\nWIND WAS 68 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT\r\n85 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE SOME OF\r\nTHE DEEPER CONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 50 MI EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA\r\nFROM THE AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE 50-KT AND 34-KT WIND FIELDS\r\nHAVE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AS THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE INNER CORE BEGINS TO\r\nRELAX.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO SHOW 15 TO 20 KT\r\nOF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RICK. THE SHIPS FORECASTS THIS TO\r\nPERSIST FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING EVEN\r\nFURTHER. THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO A DRIER MID-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT AFTER 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY\r\nWEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 24\r\nHOURS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\nTHE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW CONTINUED WEAKENING...WHILE THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF HOLD THE INTENSITY STEADY OR EVEN SHOW STRENGTHENING ON\r\nDAY 2...WHICH SEEMS UNREALISTIC CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT THAT\r\nRICK WILL BE MOVING INTO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...\r\n330/06. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RICK\r\nACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT\r\nRECURVES AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 18.5N 111.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 19.2N 111.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 21.9N 109.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N 108.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":19,"Date":"2009-10-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2009\r\n \r\nRICK HAS BEEN WEAKENING AT A RAPID PACE...ALMOST AS FAST AS IT\r\nSTRENGTHENED SEVERAL DAYS AGO.  CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nDATA SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF A SHAPELESS CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nDVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS ARE NOW 3.5/4.5 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...BUT BOTH AGENCIES WERE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES AND\r\nACTUALLY HAD DATA T-NUMBERS OF 3.0.  IN ADDITION...THE LATEST\r\nUW-CIMMS ADT 3-HOUR ESTIMATE IS 3.1 WITH A CI OF 3.6.  THEREFORE...\r\nRICK IS DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS AND DRY...STABLE AIR TO THE WEST\r\nOF RICK ARE THE LIKELY CAUSES FOR THE RAPID WEAKENING OF RICK OVER\r\nTHE PAST DAY OR SO.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE AND\r\nTHE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STABLE...RICK SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE\r\nRECENT WEAKENING TREND...BUT IT IS STILL HIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY\r\nTHE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  ALL IN ALL...IT IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND INDICATES A MORE GRADUAL WEAKENING THAN\r\nHAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO.  RICK IS STILL FORECAST TO\r\nBE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nTOWARDS THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n\r\nRICK IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 350 DEGREES\r\nAT 7 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING\r\nA NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD TURN OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS AS RICK GETS PICKED UP BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCN HAVE SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THE CENTER OF RICK PASSING JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH DUE TO THE\r\nUPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 19.1N 111.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 19.9N 111.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 23.0N 108.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 24.8N 106.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":20,"Date":"2009-10-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RICK\r\nCONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN APPEARS RATHER DISORGANIZED...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nEXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST. DVORAK FINAL\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...\r\nSUGGEST THAT SLOW WEAKENING HAS CONTINUED. BASED UPON THE LATEST\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nUW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT 15-20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES OVER RICK...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS SHOULD\r\nPERSIST THROUGH LANDFALL.  IN ADDITION....A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE\r\nAIR MASS AT MID/UPPER-LEVELS LIES IMMEDIATELY WEST OF THE STORM\r\nCIRCULATION AND CONTINUES TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  THESE\r\nFACTORS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL...GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO...EVEN THOUGH SSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE MODEL INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST RICK\r\nTO RE-INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT RICK MAY HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nWITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 020/05.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO\r\nTHE GREAT BASIN...AND GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE\r\nSHOULD AMPLIFY FURTHER OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS.  IN RESPONSE...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS RICK TURNING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL IN\r\nWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nFARTHER EAST TO MATCH THE TREND IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...BOTH SUGGESTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE.  ON THIS\r\nTRACK...RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND INLAND OVER WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO JUST\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 19.4N 111.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 20.6N 110.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 22.0N 109.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 23.6N 107.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 25.5N 104.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":21,"Date":"2009-10-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RICK HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nTO -80 C IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL \r\nCENTER...DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS ARE A UNANIMOUS 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nBASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT. AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO\r\nINVESTIGATE RICK AND WILL PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE\r\nTHE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF RICK LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nSTATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS DIFFER ON THE\r\nFUTURE INTENSITY OF RICK PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING BACK TO A HURRICANE IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM. SINCE SHEAR MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY AND SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK...\r\nTHIS FORECAST WILL HOLD RICK STEADY-STATE THROUGH LANDFALL RATHER\r\nTHAN SHOWING WEAKENING AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY\r\nBECOME DECOUPLED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICK IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...EVEN WITH THE\r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/06. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING FURTHER\r\nAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS\r\nWILL CAUSE RICK TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER TO TREND TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS\r\nTRACK...THE CENTER OF RICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 20.1N 110.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 21.1N 109.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 22.7N 107.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 24.5N 105.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 26.4N 102.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":22,"Date":"2009-10-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RICK THIS\r\nAFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 70 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT AND AN ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE PEAK SURFACE WIND ESTIMATED FROM THE SFMR WAS 55 KT\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nAGAIN HELD AT 55 KT. RICK IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF ABOUT\r\n20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL NO\r\nLONGER SHOWS MUCH DECREASE IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nBEFORE IT INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREFORE...THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.   AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES AND EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRMED PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES OF THE INITIAL MOTION OF 045/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STEER RICK\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL.\r\nTHIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF\r\nRICK IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND APPROACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 20.4N 110.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 23.2N 106.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 25.2N 103.9W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":23,"Date":"2009-10-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 20 2009\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY THIS EVENING WITH RICK AS VERY\r\nDEEP THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED ON THE INFRARED\r\nCHANNEL...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SHEAR\r\nWITH THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...AND SO WILL\r\nTHE INTITIAL WIND SPEED. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIKELY\r\nCANCELLING OUT THE EFFECTS OF WARMER WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE RAPID AS RICK RUNS INTO THE SIERRA\r\nMADRE MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE RECONNAISSANCE LEFT...\r\nBUT AN ESTIMATE OF 050/10 IS USED AS A COMPROMISE OF CONVENTIONAL\r\nAND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICK NORTHEASTWARD AND CAUSE AN INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE ONLY FLY IN THE\r\nOINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WERE TO DECOUPLE...\r\nLEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER\r\nMOVES QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  IF THAT SITUATION OCCURS...THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD MOVE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 20.9N 109.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 22.0N 107.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 23.7N 105.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 25.5N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":24,"Date":"2009-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH RICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO CONSIST OF A SHIELD OF PULSATING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nSEMICIRCLE...WITH A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT\r\nTO ITS SOUTHEAST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE 3.0 AND 3.5\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH A\r\n0148 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT SUGGESTED A MAX INTENSITY OF AT LEAST\r\n55 KT. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.\r\nUW-CIMSS ANALYSES CURRENTLY INDICATE NEARLY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER RICK...AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS A FURTHER\r\nINCREASE IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE\r\nPROHIBITIVELY HIGH VALUES OF SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING PRIOR\r\nTO LANDFALL IN SPITE OF SSTS WARMING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\nDISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 24-36 HOURS ONCE THE CENTER QUICKLY MOVES\r\nWELL INLAND OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT TO FIND...EVEN WITH\r\nMICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION APPEARS\r\nTO HAVE INCREASED AND IS ESTIMATED AT 050/12. AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD STEER RICK ON A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED...AT\r\nLEAST UNTIL LANDFALL...WHEN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nRICK WILL SHEAR APART.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 21.8N 108.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 23.1N 106.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 24.3N 104.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":25,"Date":"2009-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 21 2009\r\n \r\nBASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MAZATLAN MEXICO AND SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...THE CENTER OF RICK HAS CROSSED THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO. THE STATION REPORTED WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nAT 1200 UTC TO THE SOUTHWEST MORE RECENTLY. IN ADDITION...THIS SITE\r\nMEASURED A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 34 KT WITH GUSTS TO 53 KT AND\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 990 MB NEAR 1200 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA AND\r\nA SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 45 KT. ONCE THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY INLAND...RICK IS\r\nFORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 40 KT.\r\n \r\nA 0900 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE HELPED TO\r\nSLIGHTLY ADJUST THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS\r\nINCREASED AND RICK IS NOW MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT\r\n15 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 23.4N 106.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 24.8N 104.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rick","Adv":26,"Date":"2009-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP202009","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 21 2009\r\n \r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON RICK.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM.  REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 24.5N 104.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-06-25 22:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nDISTURBANCE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER WITH A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AROUND 1004\r\nMB.  BASED ON DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nINITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE AT THIS TIME.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF WIND DATA FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT AND SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR SO.  AFTER WEAKENING OVER\r\nLAND...THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN SOME STRENGTH WHEN IT ENTERS THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL...WHICH INCLUDES THE EFFECTS OF\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\n300/09.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...THEREFORE A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WHICH\r\nSHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AFTER 72 HOURS THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nDIVERGES...WITH ONE GROUP...INCLUDING THE HWRF AND GFDL...TAKING\r\nTHE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY TRACK.  A SECOND\r\nGROUP OF GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEPS THE\r\nSYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS REQUIRED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS TIME.  IF THE CYCLONE MOVES SOUTH OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE MAY\r\nBE REQUIRED LATER THIS EVENING. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2200Z 16.5N  83.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.4N  84.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  86.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  88.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 21.0N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N  91.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 24.0N  92.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 25.0N  93.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nWHILE DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN AN 0010 UTC\r\nSSMIS PASS APPEARED DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THIS TILT IS CONSISTENT WITH AROUND 10 KT OF NORTHERLY\r\nOR NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SAB DVORAK ESTIMATE AT 0000 UTC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nLATER TONIGHT. \r\n \r\nCONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE\r\nDEPRESSION REACHING LAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS THEN\r\nEXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH\r\nAN OPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE\r\nSTRONGER GFDL AND LGEM MODELS AND THE THE WEAKER HWRF AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST LONG-TERM\r\nESTIMATE IS 295/08.  FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE U.S. GULF COAST. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAFTER IT CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  BY DAYS 3 TO 5 MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL NOT GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO INTERACT WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nAMPLIFYING OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL AND THE\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST BUT THE REMAINS A ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF MOST\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST SPEED IS VERY SLOW BY DAY 5\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 16.7N  84.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N  85.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.4N  87.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.5N  89.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.8N  90.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 22.5N  92.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  93.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 24.5N  94.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90\r\nNM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT. \r\nTHE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A\r\nLARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-\r\nCONTAMINATED.  BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS\r\nBROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB\r\nMAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT\r\nWHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\n285/7.  FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S.  THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nSPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT\r\nALEX.  THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nGULF COAST.  THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED\r\nWESTWARD AS WELL.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.  IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  AS A RESULT...\r\nALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER. \r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE\r\nCENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND.  THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM\r\nMODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 16.9N  84.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.4N  86.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.4N  88.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 19.4N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 20.5N  90.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N  92.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N  94.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  95.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX IS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH AN EXTENSIVE\r\nAREA OF CLOUDINESS...NUMEROUS SQUALLS IN RAINBANDS...AND A WELL\r\nESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER... A\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL THAT ALEX STILL HAS A POORLY\r\nORGANIZED INNER CORE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED\r\nON  3.0 AND 2.5 DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TABF AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nPLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX LATER TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE\r\nA BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EFFECT OF LAND PRIMARILY AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE CROSSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\nONCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH AND ALEX IS FORECAST TO BECOME BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF BOTH THE LGEM AND DECAY SHIPS MODELS.\r\n\r\nSINCE WE DO NOT HAVE A RELIABLE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nCONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS. ALEX IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP ALEX MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND ALEX SHOULD DECREASE ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE RIDGE WILL\r\nBE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN\r\nFACT...THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR WHICH PREVIOUSLY MOVED ALEX ON A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE GULF HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ARE\r\nNOW SHOWING A MORE WESTERWARD TRACK LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 17.3N  86.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N  87.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N  91.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 22.0N  92.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 23.0N  94.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 23.5N  96.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 24.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-06-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE REACHED ALEX AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB AND\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KNOTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THERE WERE\r\nSEVERAL SFMR VALUES AROUND 55 KNOTS...AND THIS IS THE VALUE USED\r\nFOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST T-NUMBERS WHICH REACHED 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE ROOM FOR ALEX TO INTENSIFY MUCH MORE SINCE A\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER LAND. ALEX IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BUT ONCE IN THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN. ALEX HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nOVER WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT REACHES THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST IN AROUND 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER WAS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE EARLIER TODAY BUT NOW THAT\r\nTHE STORM IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE\r\nPROVIDED A GOOD FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE RELIABLE AND IT IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE BAHAMAS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTO KEEP ALEX ON A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED WHILE ALEX IS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT.  THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH BECAUSE MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH JOINING\r\nTHE RELIABLE ECMWF.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 17.3N  87.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 17.7N  89.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N  92.5W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 21.5N  95.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 22.0N 101.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-06-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF ALEX MOVED INLAND IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS JUST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF BELIZE CITY...WHERE RECENT OBSERVATIONS SERVE AS THE BASIS\r\nFOR THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB FOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...A\r\nRECENT BURST DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER AS IT MOVED INLAND. GIVEN\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED ONLY TO 50 KT...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.\r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT\r\nAND EARLY SUNDAY AS ALEX MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER\r\nALEX MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...\r\nAND THESE MODELS TAKE ALEX ON A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHERN GULF AND INTO MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nLATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS TAKE ALEX FARTHER NORTH LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPURIOUS\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMA IN BOTH MODELS THAT ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX.\r\nGIVEN THEIR LACK OF CONTINUITY...THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS ARE\r\nCONSIDERED OUTLIERS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFDL AND GFS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 17.7N  88.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N  89.9W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.6N  91.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 20.4N  92.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  93.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 22.0N  96.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 23.0N  99.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 101.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nRATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER\r\nDEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS\r\nENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nREMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nDEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF\r\nALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY\r\nTHING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nAGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY\r\nCANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF\r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES\r\n...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING\r\nA LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.\r\nTHIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE\r\nMODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nTAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nTEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...\r\nHWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY\r\nHANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW\r\nPATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nWHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED\r\n...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN\r\nHEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN\r\nSOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO\r\nCONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nAND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nMODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN\r\nOVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR\r\nLESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER\r\nEXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD\r\nTHAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 18.3N  89.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.1N  90.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 20.2N  91.9W    40 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.9N  92.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N  93.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 22.6N  95.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 23.2N  97.4W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N  99.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alex","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF ALEX HAVE WARMED AND DECREASED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  BASED ON THESE TRENDS...AND A LACK OF ANY OBSERVATIONS\r\nOF STRONGER WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  AFTER ALEX\r\nEMERGES INTO THE GULF...WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR WILL OFFER THE\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR RESTRENGTHENING. GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS WELL DEFINED...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nALEX TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY TONIGHT...AND FOR STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE\r\nALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL BEYOND THAT TIME. NEEDLESS TO\r\nSAY...THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ALEX SPENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL\r\nBE THE PIVOTAL FACTOR IN HOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF ALEX APPEARS ALMOST DUE WEST...A\r\nLONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...\r\n295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS....A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW\r\nOVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OF THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL\r\nNORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS\r\nRESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF ALEX. THE\r\nGFS...CANADIAN AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE WEAKER WITH THE CENTRAL\r\nU.S. RIDGE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. AS A RESULT...THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nPERSISTENTLY TAKING ALEX MORE POLEWARD. THE REMAINING MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF ALEX WILL RESULT IN A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nAND THE HWRF ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS GROUP OF MODELS...BUT DO\r\nNOT SHOW A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN. ALL THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK OF ALEX OFFERS A\r\nREMINDER TO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY\r\nIN THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHERE AVERAGE\r\nFORECAST ERRORS CAN BE 200 TO 300 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 18.7N  90.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.6N  91.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.4N  92.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 21.8N  94.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 23.0N  96.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  98.0W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N 100.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alex","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ALEX CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES.  NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...PROBABLY DUE TO THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF LAND.  THE MEXICAN NAVY SURFACE STATION AT ISLA PEREZ\r\nRECENTLY REPORTED 30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT\r\nAT 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ALEX THIS EVENING AFTER THE CENTER MOVES\r\nOFFSHORE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF ALEX IS A LITTLE SLOWER...WITH A 12-HR AVERAGE\r\nYIELDING AN ESTIMATE OF 300/8.  THE PIVOTAL QUESTION FOR THE\r\nLONG-TERM FORECAST TRACK OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HINGE\r\nON THE STRENGTH OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. \r\nTHE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS THE CMC/GFS/HWRF...\r\nALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH AND APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nOTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS...HAVE A STRONGER\r\nRIDGE AND KEEP ALEX MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST INTO\r\nMEXICO.  OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. SINCE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD...THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS THOUGHT TO BE OF BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nWHILE THERE IS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF ALEX...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nENVIRONMENT. THESE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS SITTING VERY\r\nNEAR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...IN A\r\nFAVORABLE POSITION FOR INTENSIFICATION. COMBINED WITH THE WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY\r\nAFTER ALEX MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. GIVEN THE\r\nOVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT IS SURPRISING THAT THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION...LEAVING THE SYSTEM AS\r\nA TROPICAL STORM FOR MANY DAYS. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS MORE\r\nREASONABLE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND\r\nIS NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 19.2N  90.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.9N  91.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.6N  92.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N  93.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 22.3N  94.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 23.2N  96.3W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 24.0N  98.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 24.5N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING ALEX THIS\r\nEVENING AND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 42 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE PLANE ALSO\r\nMEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 41 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTRAL CONVECTION IS REFORMING...\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nIS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST.  BASED\r\nUPON THE AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...ALEX IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE 12-HR AVERAGE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6...\r\nSHORTER-TERM FIXES SUGGEST THAT ALEX MAY BE MOVING EVEN SLOWER.\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UNUSUALLY\r\nDEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE GFS/CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nINDICATE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HENCE A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY OR NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF/\r\nUKMET/NOGAPS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED A STRONGER RIDGE AND MOVE\r\nALEX ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL NEW FORECAST\r\nIS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFS...SINCE THE\r\nLATTER MODEL APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A NORTHERN OUTLIER AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER OF ALEX HAS EMERGED OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ALEX MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. BOTH OF\r\nTHESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL.  PERHAPS THE ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THE LARGE SIZE\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...AS IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nCONSOLIDATE FURTHER. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS...\r\nIT IS STILL PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW ALEX\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO MORE THAN A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...ON THE OTHER HAND...CONTINUES TO\r\nFORECAST A STRONGER TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO SHIPS/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT.  IN ANY EVENT...IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE SKILL OF 2 TO 3-DAY INTENSITY FORECASTS IS VERY\r\nLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 19.4N  91.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.1N  92.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.0N  92.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 21.9N  93.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 22.6N  94.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 23.5N  96.7W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 24.3N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -84C HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR\r\nAND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALEX DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT AROUND 05Z FOUND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nTO STILL BE AROUND 991 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAD INCREASED TO\r\n51 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT 38 AT THE SURFACE. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO\r\nMEASURED AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 41 KT IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT ON\r\nITS OUTBOUND LEG. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND THE MARKED INCREASE\r\nIN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THE RECON FIX...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/05 BASED ON RECON FIX DATA.\r\nCOMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.\r\nAND THE GULF OF MEXICO. IN FACT...THE 500 MB HEIGHT AND WIND FIELDS\r\nARE NEARLY IDENTICAL WITH THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT OF THE\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH 72 HOURS. DESPITE THESE\r\nSTRIKING SIMILARITIES...HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE\r\nDIVERGENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACKS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A\r\nSLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT...THE GFS...GFS-PARALLEL...\r\nCMC...HWRF...AND GFDL MODEL KEEP ALEX ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND\r\nBRING THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE LOWER OR CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. IN\r\nCONTRAST...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE ALEX WESTWARD\r\nINTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE\r\nMOST SOUTHERN TRACK OF THOSE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE NHC MODEL\r\nSUITE HAS SHIFTED NORTH AGAIN...ALONG WITH THE ECMWF MODEL. THE\r\nONLY DIFFERENCE I CAN SEE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS THAT THE THE\r\nECMWF...UKMET...AND ESPECIALLY NOGAPS DEPICT ALEX AS A SMALLER AND\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE THAN THE OTHER MODELS ARE FORECASTING. GIVEN THAT\r\nALEX IS EXPECTED TO BE A RELATIVELY LARGE HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...\r\nGREATER WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS... WHICH HAS\r\nRESULTED IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT STILL\r\nREMAINS SOUTH OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN.\r\n\r\nTHE NORMALLY ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE STILL ONLY FORECASTING\r\nMODEST INTENSIFICATION OF ALEX...WHICH REMAINS SOMEWHAT PERPLEXING\r\nGIVEN THE VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPRESSIVE\r\nOUTFLOW ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH ALEX IS CURRENTLY IN AND IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS MORE TYPICAL OF SYSTEM NEARING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE LOW AND\r\nTHE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE MID-LEVELS\r\n...I SEE NO REASON WHY ALEX SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN...AND\r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE VERY\r\nRELIABLE LGEM MODEL...WHICH BRINGS ALEX UP TO 90 KT BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 19.7N  91.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.3N  91.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 21.4N  92.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 22.4N  93.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 23.3N  94.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 24.6N  97.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 25.6N  99.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N 101.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALEX HAS BECOME A LITTLE DISTORTED\r\nTHIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 66 KT...SFMR VALUES OF 51 KT...AND A DECREASE IN PRESSURE\r\nTO 989 MB. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5...TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM MAY BE\r\nCONTRIBUTING TO THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION BY CAUSING A WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT\r\nOF THE AREA IN A DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RIDGING TO BUILD\r\nBACK IN SLIGHTLY AND STEER ALEX MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE STRENGTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD\r\nHELP DETERMINE WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION OR MAKES MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN HAS A BIT MORE SPREAD. THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nSUBTLE SHIFT NORTHWARD WITH SOME OF THE 06Z GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nSOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING ALEX...ALTHOUGH THIS\r\nHAS NOT PREVENTED THE STORM FROM SLOWLY DEEPENING.  THIS SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO ABATE BY TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PULLS OUT\r\nOF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD THEN ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF ALEX THAN THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE GIVEN THE LIKELY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 20.3N  91.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.1N  92.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.3N  92.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 23.5N  94.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 24.3N  95.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 25.5N  97.7W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 26.5N  99.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 27.5N 101.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE INTENSITY OF ALEX HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THE LAST PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 990 MB...UP JUST A BIT FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING. DATA FROM THE SFMR ON THE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT. ALEX IS EXPERIENCING NORTHERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR OF ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOTS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS. THE SHEAR IN COMBINATION WITH SOME DRY AIR\r\nIN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION HAVE LIKELY BEEN\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF ALEX TODAY. ALSO...SINCE ALEX HAS BEEN SITUATED OVER THE\r\nSHALLOW SHELF WATERS WEST OF THE YUCATAN ALL DAY...SOME UPWELLING\r\nOF COOL WATER COULD BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\n \r\nONCE THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nMOVES AWAY FROM ALEX...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND ALEX MOVES TOWARD A\r\nWARM EDDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE THE STRONGEST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS. ALSO...ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST...BUT NONE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nALEX HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE BEST\r\nLONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...\r\n330 DEGREES...AT 4 KNOTS. AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF MOVES EAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GENERALLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALEX. THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAS GENERALLY TRENDED\r\nSOUTHWARD AND FASTER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED. ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND SHOWS AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...BUT NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE HURRICANE\r\nWATCH AREA TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 20.5N  91.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N  92.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 22.9N  93.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 23.8N  95.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N  96.4W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 25.5N  99.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 26.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 PM CDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ALEX CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED-LOOKING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE STORM IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 68 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-MEASURED WINDS WERE 53 KT. \r\nAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS DROPPED TO 985 MB...A RATHER LOW VALUE FOR A TROPICAL STORM. \r\nBASED ON THE WIND MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSTORM HAS DRIFTED MOSTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4.  THIS MOTION IS BELIEVED TO\r\nBE TEMPORARY BECAUSE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT. \r\nTHE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED ABOUT A HALF DEGREE TO THE\r\nNORTH DUE TO THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AS WELL.  ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT...HOWEVER...SINCE THE AVERAGE\r\nTRACK FORECAST ERROR IN THE 48- TO 72-HOUR TIME FRAME IS 100-150\r\nNAUTICAL MILES.\r\n \r\nTHE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING ALEX HAS ABATED AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL DIAGNOSES A FURTHER DECREASE IN SHEAR...TO BELOW 10 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS.  AS ALEX MOVES AWAY FROM THE SHELF WATERS NEAR THE NORTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF THE YUCATAN...IT SHOULD PASS OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nPROJECTED TRACK IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF A WARM EDDY OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST GULF.  IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT PUZZLING THAT THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS STILL DO NOT FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE...PARTICULARLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH AS WE SPEAK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE STATISTICAL LGEM GUIDANCE...AND IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LATEST 36-HR FORECAST POINT AND THE EXTENT OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE FORECAST...IT IS TIME TO UPGRADE\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH FOR TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTH TEXAS\r\nAND NORTHEAST MEXICAN COASTS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 21.0N  91.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 22.2N  92.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 23.6N  93.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 24.5N  95.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 25.2N  96.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 25.7N  99.6W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 27.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-06-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010\r\n \r\nA 0525Z AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON FLIGHT FOUND TWO PEAK 925 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT LOCATED ABOUT 20 AND 45 NMI NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS ALONG THAT LEG WERE\r\nAROUND 57 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 985 MB. SINCE THAT\r\nRECON FLIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nSMALL DEVELOPING EYE HAS ALSO INCREASED. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE FIX POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE LATEST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE...INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS MODELS...HAS SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALEX HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF MAKING ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS LIKE THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFS...AND\r\nGFDL MODELS HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL FORECASTING TO OCCUR. THE\r\nMODELS ARE CONSISTENT...HOWEVER...ON BUILDING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH AND EAST OF ALEX OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nWESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONGLY ELONGATED IN A\r\nNORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. THIS IS A GOOD SHORT-TERM MOTION INDICATOR\r\n...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS BEFORE TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION VECTOR WOULD KEEP ALEX ALONG OR\r\nJUST OUTSIDE THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE\r\nIS NO OBVIOUS PHYSICAL JUSTIFICATION TO SHIFT THE TRACK SOUTHWARD\r\nAT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE DATA FROM 0114Z SSMIS AND 0243Z AMSU OVERPASSES INDICATED\r\nA SMALL MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE VERY NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL RECON CENTER\r\nPOSITION. THIS INDICATES THAT ALEX HAS A NEARLY VERTICALLY ALIGNED\r\nINNER CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\nGIVEN THE VERY CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 21.7N  91.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 22.8N  92.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N  94.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 24.8N  95.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 25.3N  97.4W    85 KT...NEAR NE MEXICAN COAST\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 26.0N 100.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 27.5N 102.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-06-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALEX HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE\r\nTHIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE BURST OCCURRING JUST EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND AN APPARENT DRY SLOT WEST OF THE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 70 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 57 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...\r\nTHE LATTER ABOUT 20 NM FROM THE CENTER.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE WAS 982 MB.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT WINDS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST...AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nALEX HAS TURNED LEFT AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nTHE 12 HR MOTION IS 325/10...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE\r\nFASTER.  RAWINSONDE DATA THIS MORNING SHOW HEIGHT RISES FROM\r\n850-500 MB OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS...INDICATING THE LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE IN THIS AREA IS STRENGTHENING AS FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALEX WILL\r\nGRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHIS RIDGE AS IT STRENGTHENS FURTHER DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR. \r\nINDEED...THE ECMWF AND THE NAM SUGGEST ALEX COULD TURN SOUTH OF\r\nWEST AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ONLY THE HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE CURRENTLY NORTH\r\nOF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BURST IS PRODUCING TOPS COLDER THAN\r\n-80C...AND THE AIRCRAFT IS REPORTING A PARTIAL EYEWALL.  THESE ARE\r\nSIGNS THAT ALEX COULD STRENGTHEN SOON.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED ON THE WEST SIDE WHERE THERE IS APPARENTLY\r\nSOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.  IN ADDITION...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN\r\nDO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DESPITE A SEEMINGLY\r\nFAVORABLE LIGHT-SHEAR WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST ALEX TO BECOME A HURRICANE...AND THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE 34 KT WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED OVER\r\nALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  BETWEEN THIS AND THE FASTER\r\nFORWARD MOTION...THERE IS NOW ABOUT 12 HOURS LESS TIME TO MAKE\r\nPREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE\r\nWARNING AREA THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 22.7N  93.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 23.7N  94.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 24.7N  95.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 25.2N  97.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 25.7N  98.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 26.0N 101.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-06-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n981 MB AT 1716 UTC...WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND\r\nSFMR WINDS NEAR 55 KT.  SINCE THEN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nALEX IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  THIS\r\nPATTERN YIELDS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nIT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION NEAR 0000 UTC WILL\r\nFIND THAT ALEX IS A HURRICANE.  \r\n \r\nALEX HAS TURNED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n310/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY...AS THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nALEX WILL GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS TURNED LEFT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THIS REQUIRES\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE NEW TRACK STILL LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ONLY\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THE HWRF.  THUS...\r\nTHERE IS STILL ROOM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IF\r\nNECESSARY.\r\n\r\nALEX IS NOW IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...WHICH APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW FROM THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION IS POOR AT THIS TIME...AND LARGE SLOTS BETWEEN THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS SUGGEST THAT SOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL\r\nOCCURRING.  THE GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF ARE SHOWING MORE\r\nINTENSIFICATION THAN EARLIER...BUT NONE OF THEM FORECAST A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF MORE THAN 80 KT.  THESE MODELS ARE CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...SO THERE IS\r\nNO CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY IN THE\r\nFORECAST... IT IS LIKELY THAT ALEX WILL REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n80-85 KT BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL BETWEEN THE 24 AND 36 HR FORECAST\r\nPOINTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 23.2N  94.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 23.9N  95.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 24.5N  96.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 24.9N  98.1W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 25.2N  99.9W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 25.5N 103.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-06-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2010\r\n \r\nALEX HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT PASSED THROUGH THE CENTER ON A NORTHWEST TO\r\nSOUTHEAST LEG AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 973 MB BY\r\nDROPSONDE.  THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 62\r\nKT JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SOON THEREAFTER...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT HAD TO DEPART THE AREA DUE TO RADAR FAILURE.  BASED ON THE\r\nSUBSTANTIAL DROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE SINCE EARLIER TODAY AND THE\r\nFACT THAT HIGHER SURFACE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT...ALEX IS BEING UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10\r\nKT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS SO THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UP TO LANDFALL.  THE\r\nSHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 33 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION...I.E. A 30-KT INCREASE OVER 24 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...NONE OF THE OTHER NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ALEX\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEYOND CATEGORY ONE STATUS PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nALEX WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AFTER SOME\r\nSMOOTHING...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/8.  SHORT-TERM\r\nFORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL MODELS SUCH AS THE GFDL AND GFS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE WESTWARD MOTION IS TEMPORARY AND THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK SHOULD RESUME SOON.  THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH\r\nALEX REACHING THE COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE JOG TO\r\nTHE LEFT...THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT ONE\r\nSHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT PREDICTED LANDFALL POINT BECAUSE OF\r\nTRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...AND ALSO BECAUSE THIS IS A LARGE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 23.1N  94.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 23.7N  96.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 24.2N  97.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.6N  99.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-06-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010\r\n \r\nALEX HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING BASED ON\r\nWELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER AND THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF A SMALL EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nUNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 0842Z MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\n961 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 82 KT IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT. THE SFMR ABOARD THE PLANE MEASURED A RELIABLE SURFACE\r\nWIND OF 62 KT AND A RAIN-CONTAMINATED PEAK WIND OF 71 KT. THE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WAS T4.5/77 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nALEX HAS WOBBLED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND EVEN\r\nBRIEFLY STALLED. HOWEVER...TRENDING THROUGH THE SATELLITE AND RECON\r\nFIXES YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 290/06. UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS AT\r\n00Z INDICATED MODEST 10-30 METER HEIGHT RISES FROM 700-400 MB\r\nACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA TO FLORIDA...BUT ALSO TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND WEST OF ALEX ACROSS TEXAS MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS\r\nMEANS ALEX IS EMBEDDED BETWEEN TO RIDGES AND IN A WEAKER STEERING\r\nFLOW REGIME THAT NONE OF THE MODELS PICKED UP ON IN THE SHORT TERM.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON\r\nBRINGING A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA SOUTHEASTWARD TO\r\nTHE TENNESSEE VALLEY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO\r\nSTEER ALEX ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AFTER THAT. THERE HAS BEEN AN\r\nINTERESTING CHANGE IN THE 00Z AND 06 MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF\r\nSHIFTING FARTHER NORTHWARD...WHICH MEANS THIS MDOEL HAS GONE FROM\r\nBEING THE PERSISTENT LEFT-MOST OF THE MODELS TO THE RIGHT SIDE OF\r\nTHE MODEL SUITE...AND IT NOW HAS A TRACK SIMILAR TO HWRF. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...\r\nAND REMAINS NEAR THE EXTREME RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ALEX IS ALSO MOVING SLOWLY OVER SOME\r\nOF THE WARMEST UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THAT REGION OF THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...STEADY STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL SEEMS\r\nREASONABLE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nRECENTLY MEASURED BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT...RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF\r\nAT LEAST 30 KT IN 24 HOURS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 23.3N  95.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 23.8N  96.2W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 24.3N  97.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N  99.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 24.4N 101.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 AM CDT WED JUN 30 2010\r\n \r\n \r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING WITH T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REACHING 5.0 AND 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 958 MB AND 961 MB. \r\nHOWEVER...BOTH FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF ONLY 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LATEST\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW THAT THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE AND WINDS ARE SPREAD OUT IN\r\nOTHER QUADRANTS. GIVEN SUCH A LOW MINIMUM PRESSURE...THE CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TODAY AND ALEX COULD\r\nREACH CATEGORY TWO BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ALEX IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THE CURRENT WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nREPLACED BY A RIDGE SOON. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE ALEX\r\nON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LATER TODAY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FORECAST A SHARP\r\nTURN TO THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST DEPENDING UPON THE\r\nFORECAST STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE IN EACH MODEL. THIS TRACK SHOULD\r\nBRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING\r\nAREA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ALEX IS A LARGE\r\nHURRICANE WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING A GREAT\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  RADAR DATA SHOW THAT STRONG SQUALLS AND\r\nGUSTY WINDS ARE ALREADY NEARING THE SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nCOASTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 23.8N  95.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 24.1N  96.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.5N  98.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 24.5N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010\r\n \r\nAFTER A FEW HOURS OF A TRACK BETWEEN NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nEARLIER TODAY...AIRCRAFT...SATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT\r\nALEX HAS TURNED BACK TO THE WEST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF ABOUT 11\r\nKNOTS. THE RIDGE THAT WAS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS MATERIALIZED AND IS NOW FORCING ALEX TO TAKE A LEFT\r\nTURN DIRECTLY TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST AND ALEX SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER MEXICO.\r\n \r\nALEX IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND BOTH HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS EXTEND A GREAT DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER. ONLY A SMALL\r\nDEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK...LIKE THE ONE THAT OCCURRED\r\nTHIS MORNING...WILL BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHERN\r\nTEXAS COAST. THEREFORE...WE WOULD RATHER KEEP THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNINGS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT ALEX IS BETTER ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE\r\nWINDS HAVE INCREASED. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR\r\nARE 96 KNOTS AND SFMR REPORTED 81 KNOTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER. IN ADDITION...THE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT ON VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nAND IS SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW ALEX TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 24.5N  96.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  98.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N 100.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 24.5N 102.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUN 30 2010\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR AND THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EYE OF ALEX\r\nCROSSED THE COAST IN A SPARSELY-POPULATED AREA OF NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO AROUND 0200 UTC.  JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...THE AIRCRAFT\r\nMEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 87 KT FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT AND A\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 947 MB.  ASSUMING THAT THE PEAK WINDS\r\nWERE NOT SAMPLED...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE CONTINUED DROP IN\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY WAS SET AT 90 KT.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLIGHT\r\nDECREASE SINCE LANDFALL.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS ALEX\r\nMOVES OVER LAND...AND THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BE RATHER RAPID\r\nAFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE VERY HIGH AND RUGGED TERRAIN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. \r\nDISSIPATION IS LIKELY WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 260/9...JUST A TAD SOUTH OF DUE WEST. \r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF ALEX IS PREDICTED TO BE MORE OR\r\nLESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS WOULD MOVE THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nAS THE WINDS DECREASE AND THE SURGE AND WAVES ALONG THE COAST\r\nGRADUALLY DIMINISH...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ALEX WILL BE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS TOTALING AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...WHICH WOULD LIKELY\r\nPRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF MEXICO.  ALSO...A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE\r\nOVERNIGHT WITHIN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX.\r\n\r\nIT MAY BE OF INTEREST THAT ALEX WAS THE FIRST CATEGORY TWO...AND THE\r\nSTRONGEST...HURRICANE TO OCCUR IN JUNE SINCE ALMA OF 1966.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 24.3N  97.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 24.3N  99.4W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 24.3N 101.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.8N 103.8W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010\r\n \r\nALEX IS STILL MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A\r\nLARGE CURVED RAINBAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR\r\nSUGGEST THAT ALEX HAS WEAKENED...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS\r\nDISTINCT AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC\r\nAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ALEX WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT\r\nMOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL\r\nMOUNTAINS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/10. \r\nA STRENGTHENING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nMID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF ALEX SPLITTING...WITH ONE PART MOVING\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ANOTHER PORTION RECURVING\r\nNORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S.\r\nAHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THESE REMNANTS...ALONG\r\nWITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-\r\nCENTRAL U.S. AFTER THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALEX DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 24.0N  99.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.9N 100.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 24.1N 102.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF ALEX.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...AND ALEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/11.\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT...\r\nTHEN THE REMNANTS OF ALEX SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF\r\nMOISTURE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 23.1N 100.3W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 102.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT ALEX HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT\r\nRAGGED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER.   IN ADDITION...\r\nTHE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS OF ALEX HAVE DECOUPLED WITH THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CENTER MOVING SOUTHWEST AND THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nFARTHER TO THE NORTH.  ZACATECAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...SO ALEX WILL STAY A 35-KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALEX WILL FURTHER WEAKEN...THEN PROBABLY\r\nDISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE REMNANTS OF ALEX ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND\r\nPORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 23.2N 101.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 102.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alex","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010\r\n1000 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010\r\n \r\nALEX HAS MOVED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF CENTRAL MEXICO AT\r\nELEVATIONS BETWEEN 5000 AND 8000 FEET...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION NO LONGER EXISTS.  IN ADDITION...THE ONLY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LEFT IN THE VICINITY OF ALEX IS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSLOPE\r\nFLOW WELL TO THE EAST ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. \r\nALEX HAS THEREFORE DISSIPATED...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nON THIS SYSTEM.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND\r\n25 KT...BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATION AT ZACATECAS MEXICO.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALEX WILL CONTINUE TO POSE\r\nA HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE UNITED STATES...OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FOR THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE REFER TO\r\nPRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AND\r\nLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 23.3N 102.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUL 07 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM SATELLITES...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH INNER-CORE CONVECTION\r\nHAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INCREASING. DROPSONDE DATA FROM TWO\r\nNOAA AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN AND AROUND THE DEPRESSION\r\nINDICATE SURFACE WINDS NEAR 30 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND\r\nTHIS WAS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/10 DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REFORMING WITHIN THE EARLIER CENTRAL CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION AS A RESULT OF POSSIBLE FURTHER\r\nREFORMATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING\r\nSTEADILY SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE EASTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT\r\nTO STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE TEXAS-MEXICO BORDER AREA. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION ARE ABOVE 28C AND THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS. AS A\r\nRESULT...SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UP UNTIL THAT TIME. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 46 KT BY LANDFALL...BUT DUE\r\nTO THE LARGE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM...A SLOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nOCCURRING ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN\r\nCREEKS AND RIVERS...WHICH WILL ONLY ADD TO FLOOD CONDITIONS ALREADY\r\nBEING EXPERIENCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS AND\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 23.9N  93.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N  95.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 26.0N  97.6W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 26.7N 100.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010\r\n\r\nAFTER A PERIOD OF DEVELOPMENT DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND\r\nEVENING...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nPRACTICALLY VANISHED. ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY\r\nOBSERVED ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNCOMMON TO HAVE FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION\r\nDURING FORMATIVE STAGE. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE\r\nAREA IN TWO OR THREE HOURS AND WILL HELP TO DETERMINE THE STATUS OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 30 KNOTS. SINCE THE GULF WATERS ARE WARM AND THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS NOT HOSTILE...A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION IS\r\nEXPECTED. IF SO...THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INLAND WITHIN THE WARNING\r\nAREA LATER TODAY. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nKEPT IN THIS ADVISORY. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW\r\nIMPORTANT STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nBOTH...INITIAL LOCATION AND MOTION ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A\r\nPERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nFLOW PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION OVER LAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE RAINS\r\nARE FORECAST TO OCURR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND\r\nRAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS\r\nAND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 24.8N  95.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 25.8N  96.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 26.5N  99.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010\r\n1000 AM CDT THU JUL 08 2010\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE...AND VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  OUR BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER\r\nIS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST AT THIS TIME. \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT WINDS\r\nAPPROACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING IN SQUALLS. \r\nHOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE SHORT\r\nTIME REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED\r\nWITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/13...BUT LANDFALL WITHIN\r\nTHE WARNING AREA IS EXPECTED SHORTLY.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY AND\r\nTONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL.  THESE RAINS\r\nARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND\r\nRAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS\r\nAND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE ALEX.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 26.0N  97.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 27.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022010\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUL 08 2010\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING INLAND NEAR THE\r\nTEXAS-MEXICO BORDER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR\r\n25 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nEVEN AFTER THE SURFACE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED....THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY\r\nTO REMAIN A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHESE RAINS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR ON TOP OF ALREADY SATURATED\r\nGROUND AND RAIN-SWOLLEN CREEKS AND RIVERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTHERN TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO CAUSED BY FORMER HURRICANE\r\nALEX.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.  FUTURE ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER IN WASHINGTON\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 26.2N  98.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 26.6N 100.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE/DISTURBANCE THAT NHC HAS BEEN TRACKING FOR THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS SHEARED AT THIS TIME AND ITS\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND. THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE RELAXING A\r\nLITTLE...HOWEVER...AS INDICATED BY THE MOTION OF THE HIGH CLOUDS ON\r\nHIGH RESOLUTION IMAGES. THE CYCLONE IS STILL INTERACTING WITH A\r\nSTRONG WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD\r\nONLY ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN. IN FACT...\r\nNONE OF THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER JUST FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN.\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 3 TO 4 DAYS ACROSS THE FLORIDA\r\nSTRAITS AND THE KEYS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE THE\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nINCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nTHROUGH 4 OR 5 DAYS...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE\r\nEARLIER.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL HELP\r\nTO DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 21.9N  75.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 22.6N  76.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 23.8N  80.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 25.0N  83.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  86.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 28.0N  91.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 31.0N  94.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 33.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND FOUND A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH PEAK WINDS AROUND 30\r\nKNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE NEAR 1006 MB. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT\r\nBECOME ANY BETTER ORGANZIED THAN EARLIER TODAY WITH THE CENTER NOW\r\nON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST WHERE THE UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 30 KNOTS BUT ONLY A SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...AS\r\nEXPECTED...WILL RESULT IN SOME INTENSIFICATION. NONE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW LARGE INCREASES IN STRENGTH...PERHAPS DUE TO\r\nTHE PROXIMITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENEROUS COMPARED TO THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nBUT IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. \r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CIRCULATION HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND\r\nAN UPPER-LOW OVER FLORIDA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES TO THE WEST AS INDICATED BY MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nDEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BRINGING THE CYCLONE\r\nACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 22.7N  75.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 23.8N  77.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 24.5N  80.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  83.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 26.5N  86.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 29.0N  91.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 32.5N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 34.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER FOUND\r\n1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT...AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 35-39 KT.  BASED ON THIS\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH...WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO REACH BOONIE AROUND 06Z.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/12. \r\nBONNIE IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD...\r\nBONNIE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW\r\nAROUND THE RIDGE...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE\r\nCENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR KEYS ON FRIDAY...AND NEAR OR\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 60-72 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST\r\n72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT LIES\r\nSOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME\r\nADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BONNIE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA\r\nOF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF UPPER\r\nLOW.  THIS IS A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE\r\nBONNIE REACHES FLORIDA.  THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS\r\nRESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO\r\nPEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nGFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...\r\nAND NEITHER DO THE GLOBAL MODELS.  SINCE THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 48 HR...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN IN FAVOR OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 23.4N  76.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 24.4N  78.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 25.4N  81.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 26.5N  84.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 27.6N  87.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 30.0N  91.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 33.0N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 35.5N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BONNIE\r\nHAS FOUND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A\r\nPEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF\r\n34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AS FEW WEST\r\nOR NORTHWEST WINDS WERE FOUND.  IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH.  FOR NOW...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT BONNIE WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION AND REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AS BONNIE PASSED\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AN OBSERVING SITE ON STANIEL CAY\r\nREPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 37 KT.  \r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT BONNIE IS MOVING FASTER AND HAS TURNED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/16.  BONNIE\r\nIS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT DURING FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOTICEABLY FASTER...WHICH MAY BE IN PART FROM THE MORE\r\nWESTWARD INITIAL LOCATION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BUT IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS\r\nREQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST. \r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF BONNIE IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DUE TO THE FLOW BETWEEN AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nRIDGE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nWEAKEN IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OF\r\nBONNIE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS WHICH SHOWS LITTLE...\r\nIF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.\r\n  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 24.1N  78.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  81.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 26.2N  84.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.6N  86.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 28.8N  89.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 31.5N  92.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 34.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010\r\n \r\nBONNIE IS NOT A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM. DUE TO STRONG\r\nSHEAR...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE STRONGEST CONVECTION WHICH IS ALREADY OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA.\r\nLITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS TRAILING THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A FEW RAINBANDS\r\nMAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  BONNIE WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WHERE THE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME EVEN\r\nMORE DISRUPTED. THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NOT\r\nFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...GLOBAL\r\nAND HURRICANE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST ON WEAKENING OR EVEN\r\nDISSIPATING THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY. BONNIE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE AS IT CROSSES FLORIDA BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL\r\nSHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWING\r\nTHE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. BONNIE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300\r\nDEGREES AT 16 KNOTS...AND BECAUSE THE PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE MUCH...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nWITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 36 HOURS. MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE...OR SHOULD I SAY...THE MODELS THAT DO NOT WEAKEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE...SHOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL SPREAD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 25.4N  80.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 26.2N  83.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 27.5N  86.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 29.0N  88.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS\r\nBECOME LESS ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.\r\nTHE CENTER IS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN AREA OF SHAPELESS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS.\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nUNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING MAINLY DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. WITH\r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS WHICH BRING THE WINDS UP A\r\nLITTLE BIT...NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS BONNIE IN\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO. BASED ON CONTINUITY AND THE STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nBEFORE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE NORTH GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.\r\nHOWEVER...DEGENERATION INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IS ALSO POSSIBLE. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BONNIE HAS BEEN RAPIDLY CROSSING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA ABOUT 300 DEGREES OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  BONNIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN WELL-DEFINED\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE UNITED STATES AND AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE WESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...KEEPING\r\nBONNIE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.IF\r\nBONNIE SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN\r\nTHE CURRENT FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. SINCE THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE WELL DEFINED AND THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nTHERE IS A GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 26.2N  81.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 27.5N  84.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 29.0N  87.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 30.5N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 31.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 33.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010\r\n \r\nBONNIE IS CURRENTLY COMPRISED OF A CONVECTIONLESS SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS EMBEDDED IN A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nFOUND WINDS NEAR TROPICAL-STORM FORCE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT IS\r\nHAVING A HARD TIME FINDING WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA DOES SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA WITH A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 1010 MB.  BASED ON THIS CONFLICTING INFORMATION...\r\nBONNIE REMAINS A 30 KT DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND EAST OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE\r\nWEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS COMBINATION IS FORECAST TO STEER\r\nTHE STORM TO A LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  ALL THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE MODELS\r\nCLUSTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI\r\nCOASTS.  AFTER LANDFALL...BONNIE OR ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON\r\nTHE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nBONNIE REMAINS IN A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...CONFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...\r\nAND UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENCROACHING ON THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING WEAKENING OR\r\nDISSIPATION BEFORE LANDFALL...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOWING\r\nANY INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE\r\nPREMISE THAT ENOUGH CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP TO CAUSE SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE BONNIE REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  AN\r\nINCREASINGLY LIKELY ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nDECAY TO A REMNANT LOW OR OPEN TROUGH SOMETIME ON SATURDAY DUE TO A\r\nLACK OF CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 26.4N  83.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 27.7N  85.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 29.2N  88.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 31.4N  91.8W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 34.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n400 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF BONNIE AROUND 0400\r\nUTC. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND RAPIDLY BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE LAST PASS THROUGH BONNIE FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE DEPRESSION AROUND 0600 UTC FOUND\r\nMAXIMUM 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 1013 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 30-KT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE AND\r\nSHOULD BE IN THE CENTER VERY SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nBONNIE HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/15.  BONNIE REMAINS IN A WELL\r\nESTABLISHED STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER\r\nTHE CAROLINAS AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND BONNIE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE PRIOR TO BONNIE\r\nREACHING THE COAST AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF RESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE\r\nBONNIE MAKES LANDFALL.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO THAT REMAINS POSSIBLE\r\nIS FOR BONNIE TO DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN TROUGH TODAY.  THAT SCENARIO\r\nIS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 27.0N  85.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 28.0N  87.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 29.4N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 30.8N  91.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 32.1N  92.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 35.0N  93.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BONNIE AND THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE OF THE CENTER HAS\r\nBEEN GRADUALLY RISING AND WIND REPORTS BARELY SUPPORT AN INTENSITY\r\nOF 25 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE DEPRESSION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE WITH 25\r\nKNOTS UNTIL IT MOVES INLAND TONIGHT. SINCE INTERMITTENT BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP...HOWEVER...STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE IN SQUALLS PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER TO THE\r\nCOAST. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nA BLEND OF SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT\r\nBONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15\r\nKNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE BONNIE IS NOT EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY...ALL COASTAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nWE HAVE TO GIVE CREDIT TO DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS THAT ALL ALONG\r\nFORECAST THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND OF BONNIE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 28.0N  86.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 29.1N  88.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 30.5N  91.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 31.5N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 33.0N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010\r\n400 PM CDT SAT JUL 24 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO AN AREA LOW PRESSURE. LITTLE OR NO WEATHER IS\r\nCURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW RAINBANDS\r\nWELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER WHICH ARE ALREADY AFFECTING\r\nPORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM LOUISIANA EASTWARD TO THE\r\nFLORIDA PANHANDLE. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 KNOTS\r\nAND MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY\r\nSUNDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE LOW WEAKENS EVEN FURTHER\r\nAND DISSIPATES BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 28.5N  87.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 29.5N  89.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 31.0N  91.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN 1148 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE DISTURBANCE IN THE\r\nTROPICAL ATLANTIC NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND\r\nADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS MOVING RATHER BRISKLY TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KT.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN\r\nEVEN FASTER MOTION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS STEERED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. \r\nIN FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS DEVELOPING\r\nIN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nWITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD\r\nIN THE MODELS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFS ON THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND THE HWRF AND ECMWF FARTHER RIGHT\r\nSHOWING MORE RECURVATURE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  IT\r\nIS WORTH REMINDING USERS THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS 250 TO 300 MILES. \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT AFTER THAT TIME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AROUND 65W.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO\r\nAROUND 30 KT BY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK\r\nIN INTENSITY AROUND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT INTENSIFY IN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...IT COULD STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN A CLOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION WITH SUCH A FAST FORWARD SPEED...AND COULD OPEN BACK UP\r\nINTO A TROPICAL WAVE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 12.6N  41.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N  44.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.8N  48.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 16.4N  53.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.4N  57.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 22.0N  63.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  68.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND\r\nIS PROBABLY VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE RECENT\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF SHARPLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE USED FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nEAST...BUT HAS BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL IN THE\r\nREMAINING QUADRANTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14. DESPITE THEIR POOR\r\nINITIALIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION AT 12Z...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXCEEDING\r\n20 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS TAKING A\r\nVERY WEAK CYCLONE QUICKLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A LARGE BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHEREAS THE HWRF...GFS...AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nFAVOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES\r\nLIE IN HOW THE MODELS HANDLE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND GFDL HAVE MORE AMPLIFIED\r\nTROUGH WHICH ERODES THE RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...WHILE\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS HAVE LESS AMPLITUDE AND MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE\r\nU.S. MID-ATLANTIC STATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT 5-WAVE PROGRESSIVE\r\nPATTERN...MY FEELING IS THAT SUCH SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE FOR THIS TIME OF THE\r\nYEAR. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN 36\r\nHOURS WHEN ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE. BY 48-60 HOURS...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN\r\n30 KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN WEAKENING OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. HOWEVER...THESE HIGH SHEAR VALUES MAY BE AN ARTIFACT OF\r\nTHE THE GFS HAVING MUCH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS COMPARED TO\r\nTHE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...AND ALSO DUE TO 500 KM RADIUS THAT THE\r\nSHIPS USES IN COMPUTING SHEAR VALUES. IF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nUNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE RATHER THAN OUTRUNNING IT\r\n...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL END UP STRONGER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 13.0N  42.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.8N  45.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 15.2N  49.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N  54.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 18.5N  57.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 22.5N  64.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 26.0N  67.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 29.0N  69.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nTHIS EVENING.  VERY LITTLE BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN AND THE\r\nCENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB.  NOAA BUOY 41041\r\nHAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 25 KT ABOUT\r\n70 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL IN LOCATING\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONE HAS ACCELERATED DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/20.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.  DURING\r\nTHIS TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IN THE LONGER RANGE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT.  THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD MUCH EARLIER...WHILE THE GFS\r\nMAINTAINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND LIES ALONG THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ALTHOUGH THE TVCN CONSENSUS\r\nSHIFTED CONSIDERABLY EASTWARD THIS CYCLE...WE PREFER TO KEEP THE\r\nTRACK ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE WEAK AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING.  IN 36-48 HOURS...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS\r\nIS EXPECTED TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 13.6N  45.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.6N  48.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N  52.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.7N  56.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 19.6N  59.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 23.5N  65.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 27.0N  68.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 31.0N  69.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CURVED\r\nBAND WRAPPING HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUPPORTING A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT.  THEREFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...WITH MODERATE TO\r\nWEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN NORTH\r\nATLANTIC SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nA LEVELING OFF OF INTENSITY THEREAFTER.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLATEST GFDL MODEL FORECAST AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC FORECAST.  NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL OR STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS COLIN TO HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT\r\n5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE BRISKLY TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT\r\n285/20.  AT THIS TIME...THE STEERING FOR COLIN IS BEING PROVIDED DUE\r\nTO A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nEASTERLY JET.  THIS RELATIVELY FAST STEERING CURRENT SHOULD MORE OR\r\nLESS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS WOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT\r\nALONG WITH A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nFORECAST TIME...THE MODELS BECOME MODERATELY DIVERGENT WITH THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF ON THE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041 OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC INDICATE THAT COLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...AND THE\r\nWIND RADII SHOWN IN THE ADVISORY MIGHT BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS\r\nOF COLIN.  AT THIS TIME...BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...WIND\r\nFIELD...AND REASONABLE UNCERTAINTIES...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 14.0N  47.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 15.1N  50.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N  54.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 18.6N  58.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 20.6N  61.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 24.5N  66.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 28.0N  68.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 31.0N  69.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010\r\n\r\nCOLIN HAS A VERY RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING.  THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING SEEN EARLIER HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING A SMALL CONVECTIVE MASS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND A SECOND CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTH. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT IS HARD TO FIND WESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW\r\nCLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME\r\nQUESTION AS TO WHETHER COLIN STILL HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION\r\nMAY BE EVEN FASTER.  COLIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW/\r\nMID-LEVEL BERMUDA HIGH...AND IN 48-72 HR SHOULD BE APPROACHING A\r\nWEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE HIGH CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD INITIALLY STEER COLIN RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AFTER 48 HR.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACKS\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST AN\r\nEAST OF NORTH MOTION ON THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BY\r\n120 HR...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND GFDN ARE ON THE LEFT EDGE WITH NO\r\nNORTHWARD TURN BEFORE 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\n60-90 N MI TO THE SOUTHWEST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND LIES TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nCURRENTLY...COLIN IS EXPERIENCING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY\r\nCAUSED BY THE LOWER PART OF THE STORM OUTRUNNING THE UPPER PART. \r\nTHIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR DUE TO THE RAPID\r\nMOTION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER\r\nINCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CAUSED BY THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE ONLY INTENSITY GUIDANCE THAT\r\nCURRENTLY CALLS FOR COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLIMATOLOGY/\r\nPERSISTENCE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nWITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AN\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN COULD DEGENERATE TO AN OPEN WAVE\r\nDUE TO A COMBINATION OF ITS RAPID MOTION AND WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS\r\nSHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF COLIN. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 14.2N  49.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 15.0N  52.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N  56.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 18.3N  60.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 20.2N  63.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 23.0N  67.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 26.5N  69.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  70.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF COLIN PASSED NEAR OR OVER THE WOODS HOLE NTAS BUOY\r\nABOUT 15Z...WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007 MB AND A\r\nSMALL LOW PRESSURE CENTER.  HOWEVER...NEITHER THAT BUOY NOR THE\r\nNEARBY NOAA BUOY 41040 REPORTED WINDS SUPPORTING A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION...AND WESTERLY WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY APPARENT IN LOW\r\nCLOUD MOTIONS SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME VERY DISORGANIZED.  BASED ON THIS...COLIN HAS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER A SMALL\r\nAREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.  \r\n \r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF\r\nCOLIN ENCOUNTER WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE STRONG\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW AND WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPLEX\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...NONE\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DISSIPATE\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THEY FORECAST THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD REACH A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES BY DAY 5.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE REMNANTS OF COLIN TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HR AND CONTINUE AS A 30 KT REMNANT LOW THROUGH\r\n96 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE COULD REGENERATE INTO A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AS SHOWN IN THE 120-HR FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN EXTREMELY RAPID 285/30.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR IN DIRECTION TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS MUCH FASTER.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE NEAR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR 96-120 HR FORECASTS WESTWARD...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DO LIKEWISE.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS\r\nSHOULD FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF COLIN.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 15.8N  53.8W    35 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 16.8N  57.2W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.4N  60.8W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N  63.8W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 21.7N  66.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 25.0N  70.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 28.0N  72.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 30.0N  73.5W    30 KT...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF COLIN HAVE DEVELOPED\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION TO AGAIN BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND 500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 50-52 KT AND SFMR WINDS\r\nNEAR 40 KT EAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nRE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40\r\nKT.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/17.  COLIN IS BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW 27N74W...WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nEASTERN CANADA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE COLIN TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER UKMET.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES IN SPEED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND\r\nIS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nCOLIN IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nCAUSED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR 12-24\r\nHR...WITH THE STORM FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM\r\n24-72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH FOR 24 HR...FOLLOWED BY STEADY INTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF CALL FOR COLIN TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 72\r\nHR...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS INTENSE.  THE FORECAST PEAK\r\nINTENSITY IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE AT\r\n120 HR.\r\n\r\nINTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED\r\nAT THIS TIME.  PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 24.9N  66.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N  67.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.1N  67.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.6N  67.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.3N  67.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 40.0N  61.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 49.0N  48.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-08-05 23:30:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n730 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010\r\n \r\n...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO PRIMARILY UPDATE THE\r\nINTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nSHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD BEEN ISSUED...AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM COLIN\r\nREPORTED A 600-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 71 KT ABOUT 14 NMI NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1005\r\nMB WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE GENERAL VICINITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF\r\nTHESE VALUES WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL MESOVORTEX LOCATED\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE\r\nLARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD. FOR THIS REASON...THE INTENSITY WAS\r\nINITIALIZED AT 40 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH NEARBY SFMR WINDS.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE TIME OF THAT RECON REPORT...DEEP CONVECTION IN\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF COLIN HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP CLOSER\r\nTO THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH JUSTIFIES INCREASING\r\nTHE INTENSITY TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nAND SFMR SURFACE WINDS. SINCE A FORECAST INTENSITY OF 50 KT WAS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL 48 HOURS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A\r\nSPECIAL ADVISORY WAS REQUIRED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY AND TO\r\nADJUST THE INTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nALSO...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES AN EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WIND\r\nRADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WAS NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING\r\nWERE MADE.\r\n \r\nINTERNET PROBLEMS WILL PREVENT THE NHC WEB SITE FROM BEING UPDATED\r\nAT THIS TIME.  PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV FOR ADVISORY TEXT PRODUCTS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2330Z 25.6N  66.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N  67.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.1N  67.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.6N  67.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 31.3N  67.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 36.0N  65.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 40.0N  61.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 49.0N  48.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 05 2010\r\n \r\nCOLIN HAS MAINTAINED A SATELLITE CLOUD SIGNATURE SIMILAR TO WHEN A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED THE SYSTEM 6 HOURS AGO. SINCE\r\nTHEN...A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS WANED A LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE STRONG PRESSURE\r\nGRADIENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BETWEEN THE CENTER OF COLIN AND\r\nNOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED 225 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTS KEEPING\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COLIN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nBY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS.\r\nTHE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. COLIN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO PASS JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS...BUT ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nDEVIATION TO THE EAST COULD BRING THE CENTER OVER BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 20-25 KT CONTINUES TO HINDER\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF COLIN...AND THESE UNFAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...FROM 36 TO 48 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS COLIN\r\nPASSES BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND MOVES UNDER A SMALL\r\nRIDGE...WHICH PROVIDES A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR COLIN TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS BRING COLIN TO NEAR 60 KT BY\r\n48 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS NEAR BERMUDA...AND THIS TREND WAS\r\nFOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 26.3N  66.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 27.4N  66.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 29.1N  67.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 30.7N  66.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 32.6N  66.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 37.2N  63.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 43.0N  57.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 50.5N  45.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ANALYZED AT 25 KT BY THE SHIPS MODEL...HAS\r\nAGAIN TAKEN A TOLL ON COLIN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW\r\nCOMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE PULSING DEEP CONVECTION.  AN\r\nASCAT PASS AROUND 0118 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT RETRIEVALS EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT IN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD GIVE COLIN AN OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nRE-INTENSIFY.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AGAIN BY 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BEYOND THAT TIME. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TOWARD THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/12...TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. COLIN IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ANCHORED BY ONE LOW CENTER NEAR 27N 75W AND\r\nANOTHER NEAR BERMUDA.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE LOWS\r\nWILL MOVE AWAY AND ALLOW COLIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT A SLOWER SPEED\r\nINTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN\r\nCANADA.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN COLIN AND\r\nINDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IN THE TROUGH VARIES WIDELY IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE FORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL MOVE COLIN MORE SLOWLY AND DELAY\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH UNTIL AROUND DAY 4...WHILE THE UKMET...\r\nNOGAPS...AND HWRF TAKE COLIN MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD AND SHOW\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH ABOUT A DAY EARLIER. GIVEN THAT\r\nTHE 72-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FROM THE GFS AND NOGAPS ARE ABOUT\r\n1000 MILES APART...THIS TRACK FORECAST HAS LOW CONFIDENCE...\r\nESPECIALLY IN THE LATER PERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE\r\nTO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND LIES ALONG\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nBIGGEST CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. ONE\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT IF COLIN REMAINS A SHALLOW SYSTEM\r\nWITHOUT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE FARTHER TO THE LEFT\r\nAND MORE SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG A TRACK SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 26.8N  67.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 27.9N  67.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 29.8N  67.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 31.5N  66.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 33.6N  65.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 38.5N  62.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  56.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 50.5N  45.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n\r\nCOLIN SHOWS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS BY 20-25 KT\r\nOF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK AND AMSU SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND REMAIN NEAR 35 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE COLIN\r\nAROUND 18Z TODAY.\r\n\r\nJUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF COLIN TOOK A SHARP\r\nTURN TO THE RIGHT...AND IT HAS BEEN MOVING 065/6 FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN OF HIGHER PRESSURES TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE\r\nWEST SUPPORT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR. \r\nTHAT MOTION SHOULD BRING COLIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER NOGAPS. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION AND IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET\r\nAND ECMWF.  SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER\r\nTODAY...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG COLIN CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION.\r\n \r\nSHEAR FORECASTS FROM THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CURRENT SHOULD SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS FORECAST\r\nOF 11 KT OF SHEAR BY 00Z.  AFTER THIS...COLIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN\r\nIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 72 HR. \r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HR...\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE.  THE FORECAST PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nSHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE\r\nTHROUGH THAT PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 27.1N  66.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.3N  66.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 30.2N  66.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 32.2N  65.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 34.5N  64.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 39.5N  60.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 45.0N  52.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 53.0N  41.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES WITH COLIN AND THE NEAR-STORM\r\nENVIRONMENT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  FIRST...THE WELL-DEFINED LOW\r\nCLOUD SWIRL SEEN EARLIER HAS BECOME PART OF A LARGER ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A MEAN CENTER.\r\nSECOND...CIRRUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST\r\nARE MOVING AT 40 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS\r\nINCREASED.  THIRD...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED SHEAR...THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER.  DESPITE THESE NEGATIVE\r\nFACTORS...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND\r\n43-KT WINDS AT 500 FT SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WITH ESTIMATED\r\nSURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR OF 39 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 40 KT.\r\n \r\nAFTER THE TRACK EXCURSION NOTED EARLIER...THE MEAN CENTER OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS RESUMED A NORTHWARD MOTION OF 010/8.  THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  COLIN IS MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nNEAR 28N74W AS A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS IT REACHES THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HR AS THE\r\n40-KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACT THE SYSTEM.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AFTER THAT...WHICH IF\r\nCORRECT WOULD ALLOW COLIN TO STRENGTH.  THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 60-72 HR...\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50-55\r\nKT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 72 HR\r\nAND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING\r\nCOLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH THAT PROCESS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 28.3N  66.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 29.5N  66.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 31.1N  65.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 32.8N  64.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 35.1N  64.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 41.0N  59.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 47.5N  48.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 56.0N  40.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n \r\n\r\nCOLIN IS A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR AND TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. THIS COULD GIVE AN IMPRESSION\r\nOF A STRONGER CYCLONE BUT FLUCTUATIONS IN CONVECTION ARE TYPICAL IN\r\nSHEARED SYSTEMS.  THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL PROBABLY SEPARATE THE CENTER FROM THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY AGAIN SOON. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n40 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK COLIN IN SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. COLIN HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO GATHER SOME\r\nSTRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT AS\r\nDIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IN FACT...IF THE CURRENT INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES OR PERSIST IT COULD MEAN THAT THE SHEAR IS\r\nALREADY RELAXING AND SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ABOUT TO BEGIN. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A BIT AND CALLS\r\nFOR A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY. BY 96 HOURS...COLIN SHOULD BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE. THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOWN IN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS OCCURS LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REALISTIC BECAUSE\r\nBY THEN...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHING COOLER WATERS AND\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION\r\nAND ONE CAN OBTAIN A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION...WHICH IS\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. COLIN IS ALREADY ON THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS NEARING THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nTURN MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS PACKED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE ENVELOPE. THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS IN THE FORWARD SPEED SHOWN BY\r\nVARIOUS MODELS...BUT THIS MOSTLY OCCUR AT THE LONG RANGE AS THE\r\nSYSTEM BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW.       \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 29.1N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 30.3N  66.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 32.0N  65.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 33.7N  64.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 36.5N  63.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 42.0N  57.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 49.5N  46.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR 120 HOUR FORECAST STATUS IN TABLE\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT\r\nCOLIN REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE THE SURFACE CENTER \r\nDISPLACED NORTH OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER FIX.  THE HIGHEST\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SAMPLED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 36 KT. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD GENEROUSLY AT 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE...ASSUMING SOME HIGHER WINDS REMAIN IN THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYZES ONLY ABOUT\r\n10 KT OF SHEAR OVER COLIN...SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR\r\nAND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION WEST AND NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER. SHIPS SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LOW FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS COLIN WILL REMAIN\r\nOVER WARM WATERS AND IN A DIVERGENT UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTER\r\n48 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES RAPIDLY AND COLIN SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH ICON.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT COLIN HAS\r\nMOVED VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/04.  COLIN APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT IN A\r\nREGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON COLIN\r\nACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE EAST\r\nAND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS COLIN IS CAUGHT UP IN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nFLOW. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF\r\nMOTION...BUT THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 29.1N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 30.4N  66.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 32.3N  65.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 34.8N  63.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 37.8N  61.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 44.0N  54.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 51.5N  43.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n \r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES\r\nTO BE DISORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH\r\nSOME SHAPELESS CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN REDUCED TO 35 KNOTS.  THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO\r\nRAINBANDS ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OBSERVED YESTERDAY HAS RELAXED A LITTLE BIT AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LOCATED UNDER A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN\r\nTWO LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOWS. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ABOUT TO OCCUR...THE OBSERVED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN\r\nCOULD ALLOW A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. BOTH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS INSIST ON SOME STRENGTHENING BUT IT OCCURS BY\r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST WHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nSHOULD BEGIN. COLIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS\r\nAS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nUNEXPECTEDLY...COLIN HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS\r\nIT BECAME EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. NONE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE FORECAST THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION AND IN FACT...MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS INSIST ON RECURVATURE SOON AND A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS\r\nACCELERATION TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST APPEARS TO BE REALISTIC AS A\r\nLARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BRINGING A\r\nSTRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE STORM. THIS IS THE\r\nSCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 29.0N  66.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 30.7N  66.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 33.0N  65.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 35.5N  64.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 39.0N  60.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 46.5N  50.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 55.0N  41.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN INTERESTING TO OBSERVE THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER AND THE DEEP CONVECTION TODAY. DURING THE MORNING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS COMPLETELY EXPOSED AND AS NEW CONVECTION\r\nFORMED...THE CENTER SHIFTED EASTWARD AND BECAME TUCKED INTO THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EVEN THE OUTFLOW BEGAN TO EXPAND...GIVING THE\r\nIMPRESSION THAT THERE WAS A DEVELOPING TREND. HOWEVER...DATA\r\nFROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN AND THE WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED. IN FACT...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT GENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON ONE\r\nSFMR OBSERVATION OF 34 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nPAIR SUGGEST THAT COLIN WILL AT LEAST KEEP ITS TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW SHEAR FOR A DAY OR SO...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ALSO KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL STORM A LITTLE LONGER.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...COLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND ABSORBED BY A\r\nLARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE MODELS DO NOT EVEN\r\nTRACK COLIN BEYOND 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALL MORNING BUT LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nAND DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT COLIN IS\r\nBEGINNING A SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS OR LESS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nCONSISTENTLY TAKES COLIN NORTHWARD AND INDEED ALL MODELS BRING THE\r\nCENTER JUST WEST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. ON THIS TRACK...MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND SQUALLS \r\nASSOCIATED WITH COLIN WILL BE AFFECTING BERMUDA SINCE THEY ARE IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 29.4N  65.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 30.3N  65.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 32.2N  65.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 35.0N  65.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 38.5N  62.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 45.0N  50.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF COLIN IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING...EVEN\r\nWITH THE HELP OF A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\nTHAT IT IS NORTH OF THE CURRENTLY SHRINKING AREA OF CONVECTION. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM\r\nSAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A 35 KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  COLIN IS STRUGGLING TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITSELF IN A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...\r\nAND ONE POSSIBLE REASON IS A TONGUE OF LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR\r\nSEEN INTRUDING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN AN AMSR-E OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 015/3.  IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...COLIN APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN LOW-LEVEL RIDGES TO THE\r\nEAST AND WEST...AND THIS COULD BE A REASON FOR THE CURRENT SLOW\r\nMOTION.  IN THE LONGER TERM...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES\r\nSHOULD STEER THE STORM NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHIS...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLOWER\r\nTHAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST COLIN TO TAKE 24 OR MORE HOURS\r\nBEFORE PASSING BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT COLIN SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HR.  GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND AND LACK OF\r\nORGANIZATION...IT IS LIKELY THAT ANY STRENGTHENING WILL BE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH COLIN SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TO 45 KT IN 48\r\nHR.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT COLIN DOES NOT STRENGTHEN AND\r\nREMAINS AT BEST A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD. \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT INTENSITY...COLIN SHOULD BEGIN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT AROUND 48 HR AND COMPLETE IT BY 72 HR. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS THEN LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 29.7N  65.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 30.7N  65.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 32.4N  65.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 34.7N  64.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 38.1N  62.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 47.5N  51.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF COLIN REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nREMAINING DEEP CONVECTION...AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO\r\nINHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM TAFB. THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND\r\nCOLIN DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE FASTER\r\nNOW...TOWARD 005 DEGREES AT 5 KT. COLIN FINALLY APPEARS TO BE\r\nRESPONDING TO THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST...AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE GENERAL SCENARIO OF AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE FORWARD SPEED OF\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THIS CYCLE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT TRENDS\r\nSLOWER AFTER 12 HOURS. COLIN SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BY 72 HOURS BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF COLIN COULD BECOME ELONGATED AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AS\r\nIT DECOUPLES FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE UKMET\r\nMODEL. IF THIS OCCURS...COLIN COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN\r\nINDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 30.7N  65.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 31.7N  65.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 33.4N  65.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 36.0N  64.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 38.9N  61.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 46.0N  52.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Colin","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 08 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nBERMUDA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF COLIN IS\r\nBECOMING ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY\r\nHAS LITTLE...IF ANY...ORGANIZATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON\r\nTHE ABOVE...COLIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME.   \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING...THIS\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON\r\nCOLIN. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS COLIN AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION. IF THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO\r\nELONGATE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT COLIN WILL DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nCOLIN IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES\r\nAT 10 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING COLIN\r\nOR ITS REMNANTS NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VIRTUALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 32.0N  65.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 33.3N  65.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 35.3N  64.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 37.9N  63.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 41.2N  58.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Colin","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042010\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 08 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA INDICATE THAT COLIN\r\nHAS DEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE REMNANT OF COLIN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXITING\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN PROHIBITIVE FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n \r\nSOME ELEVATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITES IN BERMUDA HAVE RECORDED WIND\r\nGUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE NEAR PASSING SHOWERS TODAY. THESE\r\nWIND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE REMNANT OF COLIN MOVES\r\nAWAY FROM THE ISLAND.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 32.9N  65.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-10 23:30:00","Key":"AL052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010\r\n730 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS JUST COMPLETED ITS\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THEY CONFIRMED THAT A SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION WAS PRESENT...AND THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM ALONG THE PROJECTED\r\nPATH OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS NOT\r\nIDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING WITH INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  ONLY THE GFDL SOLUTION\r\nSHOWS MORE THAN MODEST STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT MODEL HAS BEEN\r\nKNOWN TO HAVE A HIGH BIAS AT TIMES.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE AND TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS STILL A BIT BROAD...THE INITIAL MOTION...\r\n315/05...IS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH SHOULD PRODUCE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED SO CLOSE TO THE\r\nTIME OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE NEXT ADVISORY ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT 0300 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2330Z 26.0N  84.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 26.8N  85.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 28.1N  87.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 29.0N  89.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 29.7N  90.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 31.0N  92.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 33.0N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 10 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORD WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM...\r\nNEAR 30 DEG C...WATERS.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR PREDICTED TO DEVELOP\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE LATEST\r\nGFDL MODEL RUN HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT FROM ITS PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AND IS NOW CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nSATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 320/4.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE STEERED BY A DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FLOW REGIME SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AROUND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 26.2N  84.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 27.3N  85.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 28.4N  87.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 29.2N  89.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 29.7N  90.3W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 33.5N  89.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED ITS ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. CONVECTION HAS\r\nERODED CONSIDERABLY...AS HAS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS\r\nLIKELY DUE TO COOL DOWNDRAFTS CAUSED BY THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING HELD AT A GENEROUS 30 KT BASED ON SURFACE OBS OF 25-27 KT IN\r\nSOME OF THE OUTER RAINBANDS AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF\r\n25 KT MEASURED BY THE RECON AIR AIRCRAFT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/09 DUE TO DIFFICULTY\r\nIN LOCATING THE SURFACE CENTER. DESPITE THE DISRUPTION OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATES THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS WELL DEFINED FROM 850 MB THROUGH AT LEAST 400 MB. ALL\r\nOF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TD-5 MOVING NORTHWEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL AROUND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nCREATES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF\r\nCOAST. THE EXACT TIMING OF THE WEAKNESS DEVELOPING WILL DETERMINE\r\nHOW FAR WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS LACKING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUPPORTS THE\r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY AFTER THE DRY MID-LEVEL AIR\r\nHAS MIXED AND THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS RECOVERED. NONE OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE BULLISH ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING MUCH STRONGER\r\nTHAN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY..DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW PATTERN THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF COAST BY\r\n36-48 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DROP THE PRESSURE TO 986 AND\r\n968 MB...RESPECTIVELY SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE HWRF MODEL\r\nIS FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH RIGHT AT\r\nLANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS\r\nINTENSITY MODELS AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 26.8N  85.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 27.7N  86.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 28.7N  88.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 29.5N  89.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 30.3N  89.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 31.0N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 33.5N  87.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION REMAINS VERY LARGE AND ELONGATED.\r\nBANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED AROUND THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION BUT REMAIN LIMITED NEAR THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...REFORMED OVERNIGHT TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES.  A MEAN CENTER OF THE OVERALL\r\nSYSTEM RATHER THAN A WIND CENTER WAS USED FOR THE ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS LOWERED TO 25 KT THIS\r\nMORNING...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIMITED TO A FEW RAIN BANDS IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED THIS MORNING AND CONTINUES TO INDICATE A NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST. THIS MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTH AND WEAKEN...WHICH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER DUE TO THE UPDATED INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nMORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THE SPRAWLING STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE SLOW.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOW HAVE LESS TIME OVER WATER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  AS A RESULT...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nLOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS STILL A LITTLE ABOVE\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE...THE INITIALIZATION OF THESE MODELS IS UNLIKELY TO\r\nACCURATELY REFLECT THE CURRENT CYCLONE STRUCTURE.\r\n \r\nONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF WEAK TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES SINCE MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER IS TYPICALLY WELL\r\nREMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THIS IS CERTAINLY THE CASE WITH THIS\r\nDEPRESSION.  IF THE DEPRESSION SLOWS DOWN AS FORECAST AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 27.8N  86.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 28.6N  88.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 29.6N  89.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.4N  90.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 31.2N  90.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 32.6N  89.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 34.0N  87.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052010\r\n400 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...BUOY...AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION LACKS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.\r\nIN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nDECREASED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH A LARGE...BROAD...\r\nAND ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAINS...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER MEETS THE\r\nDEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE\r\nALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS\r\nSYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A\r\nLARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL THREAT CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER\r\nAND LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 28.3N  87.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME\r\nMORE SEPARATED FROM THE LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH HAS\r\nBEEN PRESENT OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nDAYS....THOUGH IT IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED TO THE NORTHEAST. A LONG\r\nCURVED BAND OF CONVECTION ALSO WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 25 KT...WHICH\r\nAGREES WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB OF T1.5...25\r\nKT...AND A 25 KT ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nA LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ONLY WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED WITH WARM SSTS...AT LEAST\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. BY THAT TIME...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR SUCH A WEAK\r\nSYSTEM WITH ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE MAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE\r\nWITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS...SHOWING A LARGE POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH\r\nINCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE DEPRESSION LEAVES THE\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT OF THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC\r\nAND BECOMES STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nDUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 50W IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE BIG\r\nOUTLIERS TO THE NORTHEAST BEING THE CMC AND THE ECMWF MODELS. THESE\r\nMODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWEST SOON...WHICH ALLOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO A TROUGH ALONG 50W. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 11.0N  32.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N  33.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 12.6N  35.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.6N  38.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 14.4N  41.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N  47.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N  52.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N  55.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND A 2202 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOW\r\nIMPROVED CURVED BANDING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS A BIT LIMITED OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE...A 2300 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC CIRCULATION THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND BELIEVABLE 25 KT\r\nWINDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nAREA OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IMPROVING AND HAS BECOME MORE\r\nDIFFLUENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0\r\nAND 1.5 RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE WINDS ARE\r\nPROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST\r\nAND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP\r\nTO 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WITHIN A RELATIVELY LOW NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED OVER THE TRACK IN RESPONSE TO A MID\r\nTO UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND DAY 5. \r\nSUBSEQUENTLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR...290/7. THE DEEP\r\nTRADES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION NOW APPEAR TO BE THE MORE DOMINANT STEERING\r\nMECHANISM...WITH LESS OF AN INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMONSOONAL FLOW.  DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nRIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\nDAY 3.  AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 11.3N  32.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 12.0N  33.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 12.9N  36.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.8N  38.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.7N  41.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N  47.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 21.5N  51.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 25.0N  55.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nOF A DISTINCT CURVED BAND WRAPPING NEARLY HALFWAY AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS\r\nSEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE AT 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  WITH THE LACK\r\nOF A CONSENSUS FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES AND LITTLE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF MICROWAVE\r\nDATA BUT YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/08...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT\r\nAND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  A DEEP LAYER EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N41W THAT IS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AND CAUSE A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AS A LARGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO DIG OVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW A BIT MORE DIVERGENT BUT SHOWS THE\r\nDEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD WITH A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED AT LATER FORECAST TIMES AS A\r\nRESULT OF A SLOWER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND INCREASING MODEL\r\nSPREAD.\r\n\r\nSHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...SEEMINGLY\r\nCONFIRMED BY THE EXPOSED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. \r\nHOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES\r\nOUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THE LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH INCREASING SSTS\r\nSHOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nAN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HAMPER FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS REDUCED ONLY\r\nSLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 12.1N  33.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 12.6N  34.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.4N  36.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.4N  39.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 15.5N  42.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  47.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N  52.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  55.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE UPWARD TREND IN ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nSTOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING.  THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER...BUT THE CIRCULATION IS A LITTLE STRETCHED FROM NORTHEAST\r\nTO SOUTHWEST DUE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 350 N MI TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  THIS HAS ALSO CAUSED THE CENTER TO MOVE ALMOST DUE\r\nNORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PULLING IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT AND 45 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN 1134 UTC ASCAT PASS\r\nSHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30\r\nKT SINCE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nWITH THE RECENT NORTHWARD MOTION...THE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nROUGHLY 310/10.  ONCE THE DEPRESSION ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nDISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG\r\n26N SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nINCREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5 THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST DEPENDING ON\r\nHOW THE MID-LATITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN EVOLVES IN RELATION TO WHEN\r\nTHE DEPRESSION ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING WESTWARD.  THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR 45W\r\nBY DAY 4...WHICH SHOULD BE TOO FAR EAST TO INDUCE SIGNIFICANT\r\nRECURVATURE.  THIS PATTERN...HOWEVER...SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nSLOW DOWN A LITTLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS IT BECOMES TRAPPED TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST BY DAY 5...VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS...GFDL\r\n...AND HWRF MODELS...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT\r\nTHEREAFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM MAY STILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH\r\nDRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE\r\nATLANTIC...AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS A SLOWER\r\nRATE OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nDOWN A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS STILL HIGHER THAN\r\nEVERY INTENSITY MODEL AT DAY 5 EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL.  BASED ON AN\r\nEXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY PROBABILITY PRODUCT AT NHC...THE DEPRESSION\r\nCURRENTLY HAS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE OF REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT\r\nSOME POINT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 12.7N  34.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 13.0N  35.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.8N  38.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.7N  40.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N  43.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N  49.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  53.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N  56.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n \r\nSTRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR\r\n-85C...HAVE RECENTLY FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...AND\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. \r\nDVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW BOTH 2.5...35\r\nKT...AND THE MOST RECENT 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS IS 2.7. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER OF DANIELLE THROUGH MUCH\r\nOF THE DAY...THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  HOWEVER...\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS TURNING BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 3 COULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...BUT DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES A NEW RIDGE TO ITS NORTH ON DAY 5.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT\r\nIT CONVERGES BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN IS EXTREMELY CLOSE TO\r\nOFCI.\r\n \r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO SCALE BACK ON THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nSINCE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY NOT IDEAL...AND SOME DRY AIR\r\nAPPEARS TO SURROUND THE SYSTEM.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AGAIN AFTER DAY\r\n3...AND THE LGEM DOES NOT EVEN STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED OUT OF RESPECT FOR CONTINUITY. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 13.4N  35.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  36.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.9N  39.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N  42.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.3N  44.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N  50.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 23.0N  54.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIELLE...WHICH DEVELOPED AROUND\r\n1900 UTC...HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nAS COLD AS -90 C.  AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS AT 2151 UTC SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE REMAINS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF PERSISTENT EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n3.0...AND SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT. A\r\nRECENTLY ARRIVING ASCAT PASS SHOWED 35 TO 40 KT WINDS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS RAISING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 315/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DANIELLE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST\r\nAS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE DEVELOPS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH MUCH OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH BRINGS DANIELLE TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 14.2N  35.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.9N  37.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.9N  40.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 17.1N  43.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 18.5N  46.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.7N  50.8W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 24.5N  54.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nDANIELLE HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A CLASSIC BURSTING PATTERN WITH CLOUD\r\nTOP TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS -85C DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nAMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM 0351 AND 0541 UTC...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER LIES ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...\r\nPERHAPS A LITTLE MORE UNDERNEATH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY NOTED.  THE BURSTING PATTERN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER SUGGESTS THAT DANIELLE CONTINUES TO UNDERGO EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR BUT POSSIBLY NOT AS MUCH BEFORE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE 3.4. USING A BLEND\r\nOF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nCONSERVATIVELY TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND RECENT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A\r\nMOTION TO THE LEFT AND FASTER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...300/12.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD KEEP DANIELLE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A BREAK\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 45-50W WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nIN A FEW DAYS. THESE EVENTS SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE.  TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE FAIRLY\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING DANIELLE\r\nIS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMES EMBEDDED IN A GENERALLY UNIFORM LAYER OF EASTERLY FLOW. \r\nSINCE THE STORM WILL BE OVER 27-28C WATER TEMPERATURES AND IN A\r\nLOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...A PERIOD OF GREATER INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT DANIELLE COULD BEGIN TO FEEL THE\r\nEFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH\r\nA MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 14.8N  37.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.7N  39.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.9N  42.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 18.3N  44.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 19.9N  47.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 23.5N  51.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 26.5N  54.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 29.0N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nAT 1028 UTC...AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THAT DANIELLE WAS\r\nSTILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY DECREASING...\r\nAND CURVED BANDING HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nFINAL T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nA FEW RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 290/14.  THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 45W SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  ONCE THIS HAPPENS...THE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK THE WESTWARD\r\nMOVEMENT OF DANIELLE AND FORCE IT TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY\r\nDAY 5.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH DAY 5...AND\r\nLITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS NEEDED.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH THE HELP OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nWARM OCEAN WATERS.  AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOW MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS BUT THEN VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX IS CURRENTLY NEAR 40 PERCENT...SO THERE IS\r\nSOME CHANCE THAT DANIELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE FASTER DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  BY DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5...VERTICAL SHEAR COULD INCREASE AS DANIELLE APPROACHES A\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... SO FOR NOW THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD NEAR THE LOWER END OF CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH.  THERE\r\nIS NOW A 1 IN 4 CHANCE...HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...THAT DANIELLE\r\nCOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS BASED ON\r\nHISTORICAL NHC INTENSITY ERRORS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 15.1N  39.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N  41.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  44.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.9N  47.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.8N  49.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 24.5N  53.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  55.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  57.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nIS NOW RELAXING.  A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION.  DESPITE THAT\r\nSTRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS.  THE\r\nCYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN\r\nLEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48\r\nHOURS.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n290/15.  A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 15.4N  41.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  43.6W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.8N  46.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.6N  48.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 21.6N  51.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 25.0N  55.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  57.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  58.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nDANIELLE HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE THIS EVENING. A 2148 UTC SSMIS\r\nOVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE WITH LITTLE OR NO VERTICAL\r\nTILT...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS NOT YET BECOME APPARENT ON\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER AND CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST AND SPIRAL BANDS WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -80 C. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 4.0/65\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE NEAR 4.5/77 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOLLOWS THE HIGHER ESTIMATES AND IS SET AT 75 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING LESS THAN\r\n10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A WARM OCEAN\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY...OR EVEN\r\nRAPID...INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THAT WILL\r\nLIKELY INHIBIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 285/17. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nEARLIER. A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAMPLIFIES NEAR THE AZORES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nTHE BREAK IN THE RIDGE THEN BECOMES REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH\r\nTHAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THIS WILL\r\nRESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 15.6N  43.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.7N  45.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.3N  47.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 20.1N  49.9W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.2N  52.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  55.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 28.0N  57.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 31.0N  59.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS NOT AS WELL\r\nORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO...LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE AT 77 AND 90 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nPULSATING FOR REASONS THAT ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...BUT THE\r\nOVERALL TREND IS INDICATIVE OF A GENERAL INTENSIFICATION. UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT\r\nIS LESS DEFINED TO THE WEST. BASED UPON THE HIGHER SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.\r\n\r\nAN EYE FEATURE THAT FORMED EARLIER IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...BUT A 0434\r\nUTC AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER.  THAT\r\nOVERPASS AND OTHER RECENT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...280/17.  DANIELLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO BUT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST WHEN IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 45-50W.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED BY 48 HOURS WHEN A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nAMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE EVOLUTION OF THESE\r\nFEATURES SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE TO DECELERATE AND TURN NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND LIES\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE REMAINING IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN\r\n28-29C.  THESE FAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A\r\n35% CHANCE OF AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS...SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD HALT THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSIFICATION OR POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME SLIGHT REDUCTION IN\r\nSHEAR...BUT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES\r\nNOT SHOW RESTRENGTHENING IN 3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 15.9N  44.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.9N  46.6W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N  48.9W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 20.5N  51.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N  52.9W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 25.5N  55.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 28.0N  57.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  59.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n \r\nTHE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED WITH A THUD.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME EXPOSED BETWEEN A RAGGED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO ITS EAST...AND A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nTO ITS WEST.  ALL ALONG...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ABOUT 0300 UTC\r\nSHOWED A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...AND AS A RESULT THE EYEWALL BECAME ERODED.  DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN QUICKLY AND ARE NOW AS LOW AS T3.9 FROM THE\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AN EXPERIMENTAL FORM OF THE UW-CIMSS\r\nADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT AT THIS TIME...\r\nWHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KT OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WELL DANIELLE WILL BE\r\nABLE TO MIX OUT THE DRY AIR.  ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE INTENSITY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS\r\nHELD JUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH TO MAINTAIN SOME SORT OF\r\nCONTINUITY...BUT THIS IS NOW ABOVE MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WITH \r\nAND A AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/17.  THIS MOTION IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  LITTLE CHANGE IS\r\nREQUIRED IN THE FORECAST...AND DANIELLE IS STILL EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nBUT THEN REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER FORECASTS FOR DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5.  THIS SOLUTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCN AND STILL A LITTLE LEFT OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF...WHICH SEAMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED LEFT-OF-TRACK\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 16.6N  46.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N  48.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.1N  50.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  52.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 22.8N  53.8W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N  56.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 28.5N  58.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 32.0N  59.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n \r\nWITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF UNEXPECTED WESTERLY SHEAR...DANIELLE HAS\r\nUNRAVELED DURING THE DAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS OCCASIONALLY\r\nBEEN EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED CLUSTER OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY.\r\nFINAL-T AND CI ESTIMATES FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE NOW NEAR\r\nT3.5/4.5 AND SUPPORT DOWNGRADING DANIELLE TO A 60-KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  WITHOUT SUFFICIENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN THE CYCLONE\r\nENVIRONMENT...OPERATIONALLY WE CAN NOT SPECULATE WITH CERTAINTY WHY\r\nDANIELLE WEAKENED TODAY.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUPPORT DANIELLE RE-INTENSIFYING INTO A\r\nHURRICANE SOON...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE\r\nBECOMING AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...INDICATES GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE STRONGLY\r\nAFFECTED BY PERSISTENCE...BUT IT REMAINS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS STILL MOVING QUICKLY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/16.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW\r\nDOWN SOON AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS\r\nIT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE MODELS HAVE\r\nSHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...AND THE DAY 5\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST POSITION ENDS UP BEING 2 DEGREES FARTHER WEST\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SHARPER-TURNING ECMWF.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 17.5N  48.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  49.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 20.2N  51.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 22.0N  53.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 23.7N  55.3W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 26.5N  58.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 29.5N  61.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 33.0N  61.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT\r\nDANIELLE IS BECOMING BETTER-ORGANIZED...WITH HINTS OF AN EYE\r\nFEATURE ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNELS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY AN\r\nINCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO STILL BE EXPERIENCING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING.  FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nMID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND EXPERIENCING MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE WARM SSTS...THESE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCONDITIONS USUALLY DO NOT FAVOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION. \r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FRACTURE THE TROUGH IN 36-48\r\nHR...WHICH CAUSES A DECREASE IN SHEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS\r\nCLOSER TO DANIELLE AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nRESTRENGTHENING.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO FOLLOWED IN THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL/LGEM/SHIPS MODELS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\nABOUT 16 KT. A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD PROVIDE THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW FOR DANIELLE DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS\r\nTHE RIDGE WEAKENS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED\r\nTOMORROW...WITH THAT GENERAL MOTION AT A SLOWER SPEED CONTINUING\r\nFOR A FEW DAYS AFTERWARD. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE LONG-TERM IS\r\nHOW MUCH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF\r\nTHE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AFFECT DANIELLE.\r\nTHE OVERALL TREND IN THE MODELS IS FOR A WEAKER TROUGH...WHICH\r\nCAUSES A DELAYED NORTHWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE INITIALLY...BUT ENDS UP SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 120 HOURS.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE\r\nTHAT THE MODEL SPREAD IS INCREASING AT THE LONG-RANGE...SO THE\r\nFORECAST CONFIDENCE AT THAT TIME IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 18.2N  49.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 19.4N  51.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 21.3N  53.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N  55.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 24.4N  57.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 27.0N  60.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 30.0N  61.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 33.0N  61.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED 70 KT TO 75 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME MUCH\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AN AMSR-E PASS FROM\r\n0516 UTC SUGGESTS AN EYE WITH FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL.  CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nBECOMING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TO THE NORTHWEST.  USING A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN IMPARTING MODERATE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON DANIELLE.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THIS UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION WOULD CAUSE THE SHEAR TO\r\nWEAKEN AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OR EVEN SOUTHEASTERLY.  BOTH OF\r\nTHESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR SO THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL PROBABLY BE ON A WEAKENING TREND BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 300/15.  A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO OCCUR VERY SOON IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL.  A SHORT WAVE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS WOULD TEMPORARILY HALT A\r\nFURTHER TURN TO THE RIGHT...UNTIL THE RIDGE MOVES FARTHER EAST. \r\nLATER ON...A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY AS DANIELLE MOVES\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IS INFLUENCED BY A\r\nTROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST IS AN OUTLIER...\r\nSHOWING A SHARPER TURN TO THE RIGHT THAN MOST OF THE MODELS...AND\r\nIS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE.  IT WILL BE\r\nINTERESTING TO SEE IF THAT MODEL TURNS OUT TO BE CORRECT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 18.8N  51.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 20.1N  52.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 21.8N  54.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 23.3N  56.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  58.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N  61.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 30.0N  62.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010\r\n\r\nDANIELLE HAS A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS TO -80C.  HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER WITH NO\r\nEVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nA TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE ARE CAUSING 15-20 KT OF\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THIS HAS LIKELY AFFECTED THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/15.  DANIELLE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE IN A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH\r\nSOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS\r\nBETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SPREAD DURING\r\nTHIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW DANIELLE MAY INTERACT WITH A\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND HOW MUCH MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nMAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NOGAPS SHOWS THE MOST\r\nRIDGING...AND IN RESPONSE TURNS DANIELLE NORTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nECWMF SHOWS A STRONGER TROUGH AND LESS RIDGING...AND IN CONSEQUENCE\r\nTURNS THE HURRICANE NORTHEASTWARD BY 120 HR.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE\r\nIN BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...WITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nFORECASTING A NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOP AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IN ABOUT 24 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN\r\nTHE SHEAR.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES ON INTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-72\r\nHR PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFDN FORECASTING DANIELLE TO BECOME A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE...\r\nAND THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALL FOR A 95 KT PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED\r\nBY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 19.6N  52.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 20.8N  53.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 22.3N  55.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 23.7N  57.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 24.9N  59.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 27.5N  61.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 30.5N  62.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 34.0N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010\r\n\r\nDANIELLE HAS DEVELOPED A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER\r\nWITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80C...AND A FAINT EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS BEEN SEEN\r\nIN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THIS\r\nIS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ANALYSES\r\nFROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT DANIELLE IS\r\nSTILL AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SEEN JUST OUTSIDE THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...LIKELY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO\r\nITS NORTHWEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/15.  FOR THE NEXT\r\n48-72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS LOW\r\nAND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 72 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING\r\nTHIS TIME HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK HAS CORRESPONDINGLY DECREASED. \r\nTHE NOGAPS... HWRF...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS FORECAST A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR AND ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE ECMWF AND THE LBAR SHOW A QUICK RECURAVTURE\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AND ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.  THE\r\nOTHER DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS FORECAST A MEANDERING\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION...AND THE 72-120 HR FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48-72 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF IT THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE SHOULD PASS TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IN 12-18 HR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A DECREASE IN\r\nTHE SHEAR.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR DANIELLE DURING THE 24-72 HR\r\nTIME FRAME...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING CONSISTENTLY STRONGER SHEAR\r\nTHAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS\r\nTHE LIGHTER-SHEAR SCENARIO AND CALL FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KT\r\nIN 72 HR.  THIS IS AGAIN BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/GFDN AND\r\nTHE LESS AGGRESSIVE SHIPS/LGEM.  AFTER 72 HR...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING WEST OF DANIELLE\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS TIME THUS CALLS FOR ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT FOLLOWED\r\nBY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 21.2N  53.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 22.3N  54.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N  56.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 24.8N  58.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 26.1N  60.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 29.0N  62.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 32.0N  62.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 35.0N  62.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DANIELLE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EXTENDS\r\nAROUND THE HURRICANE...AND THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME\r\nMORE CIRCULAR WITH SIGNS OF A RAGGED EYE. MICROWAVE PASSES FROM\r\n2000-2200 UTC CONFIRM THIS TREND AND SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN\r\nEYEWALL THAT IS MOSTLY CLOSED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO\r\n85 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. THE SIZE OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE EXPANDING ON SATELLITE...AND WIND\r\nANALYSES FROM CSU/CIRA ALSO SHOW THIS GROWTH. BASED ON THE ABOVE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED.\r\n \r\nIT IS A LITTLE SURPRISING THAT THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING\r\nAS WIND SHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SHOW ABOUT 15 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE BY LATE\r\nTOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF DANIELLE. \r\nTHIS IS A COMMON SYNOPTIC SITUATION THAT SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION\r\nAND NOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE DANIELLE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH ON FRIDAY.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER AND AN INCREASE\r\nIN SHEAR.  THIS SCENARIO IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND\r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.   \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 320/15 DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND\r\nEVEN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT RECENTLY.  A LARGE TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE HURRICANE HAS APPARENTLY BEEN CAUSING IT TO MOVE A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST PATH...BUT THE TROUGH IS\r\nRAPIDLY MOVING AWAY FROM DANIELLE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RIDGE TO\r\nREBUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE\r\nTRACK BY TOMORROW NIGHT. IN A FEW DAYS...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS\r\nANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS DIVERGENT ON WHETHER THE HURRICANE WILL SIMPLY RECURVE OUT\r\nTO SEA WITH THAT TROUGH...OR WHETHER IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AND\r\nRESUME A SLOWER MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE MOST RELIABLE\r\nMODELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR OR EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WILL LEAN ON THAT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 22.4N  54.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 23.7N  55.6W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.0N  57.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.1N  59.3W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  60.8W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 30.3N  62.3W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 33.5N  62.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 37.0N  61.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE\r\nHAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING IN COVERAGE.  BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF\r\n5.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS EXCELLENT EXCEPT TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...AS THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT ACCORDING TO ANALYSES FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW\r\nFOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW DANIELLE TO\r\nINTENSIFY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER\r\n72 HOURS...INCREASING SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH 24 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHOSE MODELS BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/14...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  DURING THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLVING SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DANIELLE WILL BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN 30N AND 35N.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE\r\nMOVING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  SOME DIFFERENCES\r\nREMAIN IN THE DETAILS OF HOW QUICKLY DANIELLE TURNS NORTHWARD...AND\r\nIF AN ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nFOR THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET FARTHEST EAST AND THE GFS\r\nAND NOGAPS FARTHEST WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED EASTWARD AND FASTER TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT\r\nIS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 23.4N  54.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N  56.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 25.8N  58.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 27.0N  59.9W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 28.3N  61.1W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  61.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 35.5N  60.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 38.0N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n\r\nDANIELLE HAS GONE THROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES IN ITS CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE.  THE EYE THAT WAS APPARENT FROM 05-07Z DISAPPEARED AT\r\nABOUT 10Z...ACCOMPANIED BY AN OVERALL DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION. \r\nSINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS RE-APPEARED...EMBEDDED IN A RAGGED CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...THIS MAY\r\nBE SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME SHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/13.  IN THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...DANIELLE SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE A MAJOR EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON RECURVATURE\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THIS\r\nPERIOD...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE\r\nFIRST 48 HR...AND IS ALONG THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nFROM 72-120 HR.  ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT\r\nDANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR 48 HR OR SO BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nFORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24-48 HR AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100 KT IN 24 HR. \r\nAFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 24.4N  55.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 25.3N  57.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  59.1W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.8N  60.4W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.3N  61.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 33.0N  60.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 36.5N  58.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 39.0N  55.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT DANIELLE HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED 20 NM WIDE EYE WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -75C IN\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE\r\n90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SINCE THAT TIME THE SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE HAS IMPROVED.  THUS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.  THE CIRRUS IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/13.  FOR THE NEXT 36 HR...DANIELLE SHOULD\r\nBE STEERED GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSING\r\nTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.  AFTER THAT...A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE DANIELLE TO\r\nRECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS...THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THOSE\r\nEXCEPTIONS ARE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...WHICH FORECAST DANIELLE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN STALL NORTH OF BERMUDA.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR DANIELLE\r\nTO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW\r\nTRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ON THE\r\nNEXT ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT\r\nDANIELLE IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR BEFORE ENCOUNTERING STRONGER SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  ALL INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nFORECAST STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KT IN 24 HR.\r\nAFTER 48 HR...INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION MAY BE UNDERWAY BY 120 HR...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nCOMPLETED AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 25.2N  57.0W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N  58.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  60.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 28.6N  61.1W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 30.2N  61.2W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 34.0N  59.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 37.5N  56.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 39.5N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS\r\nCONTRACTED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INCREASE IN EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM 0000Z WERE 90...90...\r\nAND 102 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nEYEWALL CONTRACTION IS USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSIFYING\r\nSYSTEM...IT IS PREFERABLE TO WAIT TO SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL CONSERVATIVELY REMAIN 95 KT.\r\nDANIELLE HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS LEFT TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH\r\nLIGHT-TO- MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM WATER. AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE SHIPS MODEL.  \r\n\r\nDANIELLE HAS SLOWED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 315/10.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE. \r\nTHEREAFTER... THIS RIDGE ERODES AWAY DUE TO AN APPROACHING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT DANIELLE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THAT TROUGH AND RECURVED OUT TO\r\nSEA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...THEN IS MUCH FASTER BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO NOW BECOMING VERY\r\nLIKELY.  THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...AND ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED\r\nON THE NEXT ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 25.8N  57.6W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.7N  59.0W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  60.4W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 29.6N  60.9W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 31.4N  60.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 35.5N  56.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 38.5N  50.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-08-27 06:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n200 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE OF DANIELLE HAS\r\nCONTRACTED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT...AND IS NOW EMBEDDED IN A RING\r\nOF TOPS COLDER THAN -60C.  A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB\r\nAT 0415 UTC YIELDED A DATA-T NUMBER OF 6.0/115 KT.  BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF THIS ESTIMATE AND AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES OF 5.5/102\r\nKT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING A PEAK\r\nOF 115 KT AT 24 AND 36 HOURS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK AND WIND RADII FORECASTS ARE UNCHANGED. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0600Z 26.2N  58.1W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 26.7N  59.0W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 28.1N  60.4W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 29.6N  60.9W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 31.4N  60.3W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 35.5N  56.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 38.5N  50.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  42.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nDANIELLE HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT...WITH INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY SHOWING A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS.  BASED ON THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CURRENT ADT\r\nVALUES AROUND 6.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT.  LOW\r\nSHEAR CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO SHOW A PEAK AT 120 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO\r\nINCREASE AROUND 36 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN AROUND THAT TIME.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN SHEAR COMBINED WITH\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN MORE\r\nSUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING BY DAYS 3 AND 4.  BY DAY 5...BOTH THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF SHOW DANIELLE MAINTAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE\r\nBEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DANIELLE TURNING NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...DANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC AS THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. \r\nONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.  AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NEW FORECAST IS MUCH FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 26.5N  58.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  60.0W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 28.9N  60.9W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 30.6N  60.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 32.9N  59.2W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 37.5N  54.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 40.0N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 41.5N  31.5W    65 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF DANIELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY. THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT\r\nAND EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE STARTED TO COOL AND THE COLDEST CLOUD RING NOW ENCIRCLES THE\r\nEYE ABOUT 75 PERCENT. THE SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB WAS T6.0/115 KT. ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE T5.9/114 KT\r\nAND AN ODT OF T6.1/117 KT FROM NHC. A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE\r\nDANIELLE THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10. DANIELLE HAS MADE A FEW\r\nBRIEF WESTWARD WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT OVERALL THE\r\nMOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE TRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS MERELY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT WESTWARD POSITION\r\nAT 12Z. THE GUIDANCE MODELS REMAIN VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AND ARE CONSISTENT WITH DANIELLE BEGINNING RECURVATURE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 30N\r\nLATITUDE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW OF DANIELLE ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE THAT IS CONVERGING INTO A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTHEAST COULD BUILD THE RIDGE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS. THE RESULT WOULD BE A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AND SLOWER\r\nRECURVATURE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSTILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE OCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND THEN CAPTURE THE SYSTEM AT HIGHER LATITUDES AND TURN\r\nIT MORE POLEWARD AFTER 96 HOURS AS A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE FASTER\r\nAND MORE POLEWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.\r\nOUTFLOW REMAIN QUITE IMPRESSIVE AND THE IS BEING ENHANCED TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST AS THE FLOW INTERACTS WITH BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nLOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF DANIELLE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...DECREASING SHEAR...AND SSTS OF 29C...\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY 36-48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE TO 25-30 KT. THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASING SHEAR AND\r\nDECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. IN THE\r\n96-120 TIME PERIOD...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS-GFDL-HWRF INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 26.9N  59.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 27.9N  60.8W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  61.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  60.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 34.3N  57.6W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 38.0N  52.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 40.5N  43.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 46.0N  28.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF DANIELLE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE\r\nDURING THE DAY AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE REMAINS VERY\r\nDISTINCT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS AND\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPROVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE HURRICANE. AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED DANIELLE EARLIER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON AND FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 942 MB AND MAXIMUM\r\n700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 119 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 107 KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS WERE ONLY 101 KT...HOWEVER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE A CONSENSUS\r\nT6.0/115 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE T6.4/125 KT... AND HAVE\r\nBEEN INCREASING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 48-72 HOURS...AND IS STILL\r\nINDICATING SHARP RECURVATURE BY 24 HOURS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 29N-30N LATITUDE. AFTER RECURVATURE\r\nOCCURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD \r\nOFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST AND CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION IS\r\nFORECAST TO ACCELERATE DANIELLE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AT HIGHER\r\nLATITUDES BY 96 HOURS...AND THEN TURN IT SHARPLY POLEWARD BY 120\r\nHOURS AS A STRONG AND DEEP EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS...AND THEN A MORE POLEWARD AT DAY 5...WHICH REMAINS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE MAY STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR AND OVER 29C\r\nSSTS. BY 36 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD COMBINE WITH\r\nDECREASING SSTS TO INITIATE STEADY WEAKENING. AROUND 96 HOURS OR\r\nSO...DANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES\r\nWITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 120\r\nHOURS AS A VERY LARGE 60-KT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF DANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE EAST\r\nOF BERMUDA...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD ON THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO\r\nBERMUDA ON SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR THAT ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 27.3N  60.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 28.6N  61.0W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.5N  60.8W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 32.8N  59.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 35.1N  56.3W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 38.4N  49.7W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 41.8N  39.1W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 50.0N  28.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":27,"Date":"2010-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DANIELLE\r\nHAS STARTED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH A 60 NM WIDE OUTER EYEWALL FORMING AROUND THE 15-20 NM\r\nWIDE INNER EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE\r\nDANIELLE. THE HURRICANE REMAINS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 HR WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW 335/8.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT DANIELLE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER.  THERE IS SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE SPEED OF MOTION DURING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOWING A FASTER\r\nMOTION THAN THE EUROPEAN AND THE UKMET.  THE TRACK FORECAST SPLITS\r\nTHE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nIT IS UNLIKELY THAT DANIELLE WILL HAVE TIME TO COMPLETE THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR IN 24 HR OR SO.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 115 KT INTENSITY FOR 12 HR...WITH\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN\r\nAT ABOUT 96 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 120 HR.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST DANIELLE TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH TRANSITION...\r\nAND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 28.1N  60.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 29.2N  60.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  59.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 34.2N  57.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 36.8N  53.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  46.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 43.0N  37.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 51.5N  28.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":28,"Date":"2010-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT DANIELLE HAS WEAKENED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH\r\nRADII OF 20 AND 60 NM AROUND 0345 UTC...AND SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER EYEWALL HAD CONTINUED TO ERODE.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 100 KT AND A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 950 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE WILL\r\nNOT LIKELY HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO RESTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THE\r\nEYEWALL CYCLE COMPLETES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS INDICATED\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...DANIELLE\r\nWILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED DURING THE TRANSITION PROCESS.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES...AND SHOWED THAT DANIELLE HAS SLOWED A LITTLE.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345/8.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED OVER THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS...AS\r\nDANIELLE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME...DANIELLE WILL SLOW\r\nTEMPORARILY FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE FIRST UPPER-TROUGH LIFTS\r\nOUT...AND THEN ACCELERATE AGAIN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS\r\nANOTHER TROUGH CAPTURES THE CYCLONE AND THEN PULLS IT SHARPLY\r\nNORTHWARD BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nMORE WESTERLY INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...A MORE SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK WAS MADE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND\r\nTOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 28.6N  61.0W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.2N  60.6W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 33.2N  58.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 36.7N  56.1W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 38.9N  54.3W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 41.5N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 47.1N  32.4W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 54.5N  35.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":29,"Date":"2010-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nTHE VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATIONS AND A SERIES OF\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THE NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE WEBSITE INDICATE\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE INNER EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF\r\nDANIELLE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. THE OUTER\r\nCONCENTRIC RING LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI FROM THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...HOWEVER...IS WELL DEFINED AND SYMMETRIC...AND APPEARS TO\r\nBE CLOSE TO COMPLETING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THERE MAY BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS ITS TRACK OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER. IT IS WORTH NOTING...HOWEVER...THAT THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nPROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS HAS\r\nDECREASED FROM 14 TO 4 PERCENT...SUGGESTING A SMALL CHANCE OF THIS\r\nSCENARIO COMING TO FRUITION. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY WILL MAINTAIN A WIND SPEED OF 95 KT FOR 12\r\nHOURS...THEN SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. BY THE 96\r\nHOUR PERIOD...DANIELLE WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW WEAKENING DURING THIS EVENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 020/8. \r\nDANIELLE SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER\r\nTODAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH MOVING\r\nOFF OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES. A TEMPORARY\r\nREDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST NEAR THE 36-48 PERIOD AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT DAY\r\n3...ANOTHER MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF\r\nNORTHEAST CANADA...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE DANIELLE TO SHARPLY TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT BECAUSE OF THE 6 HOUR MOTION AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN\r\nBEYOND DAY 3. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 29.3N  60.5W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 31.2N  59.5W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 34.6N  57.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 37.7N  54.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 39.5N  53.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 42.5N  42.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 51.0N  30.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 55.0N  35.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":30,"Date":"2010-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND A METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS INDICATE THAT ONLY A\r\nFRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL EXISTS. THE AMSU IMAGE ALSO SHOWED\r\nTHAT THE 45 NMI DIAMETER OUTER CONCENTRIC RING HAS ERODED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO HAS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE.  THE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nAN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD INCREASE LATER\r\nTONIGHT PREVENTING DANIELLE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nREFLECTS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES\r\nITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 030/11.\r\nDANIELLE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST\r\nNEAR THE 36 PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. AT DAY 3...ANOTHER CANADIAN PULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN.\r\n\r\nINITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING A 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 30.3N  59.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 32.3N  58.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 36.1N  55.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 38.8N  53.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 40.3N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 45.0N  38.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 53.0N  33.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 54.0N  41.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":31,"Date":"2010-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nCONVECTION IN THE OUTER EYEWALL OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME DEEPER DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL CELL EVEN FIRING NEAR\r\nTHE DECAYED INNER EYEWALL.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE\r\nBASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90\r\nKT.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW DANIELLE BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nHURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE...030/17. DANIELLE\r\nIS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER\r\nTROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN.   IN 24-36 HOURS...THE\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DUE TO A FAST-MOVING\r\nMID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.   INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST IN A FEW DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THEY\r\nWILDLY DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ONWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nECMWF/GFS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 31.5N  58.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 34.2N  56.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 37.5N  54.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 39.4N  52.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 40.8N  48.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 45.0N  34.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 52.5N  30.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":32,"Date":"2010-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nDANIELLE HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING. AN EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...\r\nDUE TO ABOUT 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. DVORAK CI NUMBERS\r\nARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND\r\nIS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN\r\nEVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DANIELLE\r\nTRANSITIONING TO AN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITHIN 2 DAYS...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD...AHEAD OF A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 63 W...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/18. THE HURRICANE MAY BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF DANIELLE. THEREAFTER...A LARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE DANIELLE\r\nTO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST ONCE AGAIN. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN 0142 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE\r\nALSO BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 33.2N  57.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 35.9N  55.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 38.3N  53.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 39.8N  50.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 41.1N  46.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 54.5N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":33,"Date":"2010-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nDANIELLE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING TODAY AS DEPICTED IN THE\r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND POLAR ORBITING SATELLITE IMAGERY.  VISIBLE AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE 0948Z TRMM AND 0950Z SSMIS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF DANIELLE IS DISPLACED SOMEWHAT\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE AT 4.5 FROM\r\nTAFB...OR 77 KT...AND 4.0 FROM SAB...OR 65 KT. A 0830Z AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS SUGGESTED SOMEWHAT HIGHER\r\nWINDS...BASED UPON A WELL-DEFINED MID AND UPPER LEVEL WARM CORE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS MOVING A BIT FASTER...23 KT...TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THIS\r\nMORNING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THE MODELS ARE\r\nIN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN DEPICTING MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE 96 HR POINT. THAT FORECAST POSITION IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH SHOWS DANIELLE\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF IT BECOMING\r\nABSORBED.\r\n\r\nDANIELLE IS CURRENTLY EXHIBITING SOME BAROCLINICITY WHICH IS\r\nBEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST\r\nSIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC\r\nSTATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED. DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER ITS TRACK. ALL DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT A FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR IN\r\nABOUT TWO DAYS...AND ET IS INDICATED HERE AT 48 HOUR. AFTER THIS\r\nTRANSITION...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND\r\nREMAIN A LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4 DAYS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BIT\r\nHIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND HURRICANE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...AS BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST A HIGH\r\nEND TROPICAL STORM AS DEPICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  BY DAY\r\n5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED\r\nPOSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nPORTION OF DANIELLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 35.5N  55.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 38.0N  53.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 39.7N  51.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 40.9N  48.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 43.1N  42.3W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  34.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 57.5N  34.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":34,"Date":"2010-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION AROUND DANIELLE HAS BECOME RATHER ASYMMETRIC WITH\r\nMOST OF THE COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE CYCLONE'S NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. CORRESPONDING...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB ARE DROPPING WITH 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND 4.0...OR 65\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY. FORTUNATELY...A FORTUITOUS ASCAT PASS WAS\r\nRECEIVED FROM 1404Z WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE HURRICANE \r\nFORCE WIND VECTORS. A CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM A 1626Z\r\nNOAA-19 OVERPASS EVEN SUGGESTED CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...THOUGH\r\nTHIS APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT\r\nAS A BLEND OF THESE. DANIELLE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SOME\r\nBAROCLINICITY... WHICH IS BEING MANIFEST THROUGH THE COLD AIR\r\nADVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND A SURFACE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD BE DELAYED.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A\r\nCURRENT SPEED OF ABOUT 25 KT. THERE WAS CONCERN THAT WE WERE\r\nFOLLOWING A MID-LEVEL VORTEX RATHER THAN THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.\r\nHOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE AND POLAR ORBITING MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE VORTEX IS STILL COHERENT VERTICALLY. DANIELLE\r\nSHOULD DECELERATE SOME AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY\r\nTOMORROW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS LOSE THE VORTEX IN ABOUT 48 HR WHEN THE SYSTEM BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL. THIS IS BECAUSE THERE IS A PROMINENT BAROCLINIC\r\nDEVELOPMENT JUST NORTH OF DANIELLE...WHICH MAY RESULT IN THE VORTEX\r\nFROM DANIELLE BECOMING ABSORBED AT THAT TIME. ASSUMING THAT \r\nDANIELLE REMAINS THE PRIMARY CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...A TRACK FORECAST IS PROVIDED THROUGH 96 HR. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS FOR THE NEXT 24 HR BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION\r\nTHAN ANTCIPATED...AND THEN SIMILAR TO BOTH THEREAFTER. UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...DANIELLE SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nGRADUALLY DUE TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS UNDER\r\nITS TRACK. THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED POSITION...\r\nINTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF\r\nDANIELLE.\r\n \r\nTHE 1404Z ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR A SLIGHT ENLARGEMENT OF THE\r\n34...50...AND 64 KT WIND RADII ESTIMATED FOR THE INITIAL TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 38.0N  54.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 40.1N  52.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 41.3N  50.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 42.3N  45.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  39.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 51.0N  30.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 57.6N  32.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":35,"Date":"2010-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ERODED INTO AN ELONGATED BAND IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER\r\nAND TAKES ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...\r\nA UW-CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 29/2133 UTC STILL INDICATED\r\nA STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE...AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND\r\nA PRESSURE OF 968 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE AMSU ESTIMATE AND A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nAND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT DANIELLE HAS CLEARLY BEEN CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AND THE FLOW PATTERN IS EVOLVING INTO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nCUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH TYPICALLY MOVES SLOWER THAN A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS LATITUDE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR\r\nAGREEMENT ON DANIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAYS\r\n3 AND 4 AS A LARGER AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT\r\nOF NORTHEASTERN CANADA AND ACTS TO KICK OUT THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nDANIELLE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER\r\nMUCH COOLER WATER THAT LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY BY 72 HOURS\r\nFROM THE LARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COMING OUT OF CANADA...\r\nWHICH WILL HELP THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION REMAIN LARGE AND FAIRLY\r\nSTRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII REMAIN LARGE AND ARE UNCHANGED BASED ON LIMITED\r\nSHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE. 12-FT SEAS\r\nRADII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nBASED ON GUIDANCE FROM TAFB AND THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 39.3N  53.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 40.8N  51.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 42.0N  47.4W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 43.5N  42.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 45.1N  34.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 51.5N  27.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 60.0N  30.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":36,"Date":"2010-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nONLY A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nAS DANIELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER\r\nAND TRANSITIONS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND A 30/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT INDICATED\r\nDANIELLE STILL POSSESSED A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE SIMILAR TO\r\nTHAT OF AN EARLIER 29/2133Z AMSU OVERPASS THAT YIELDED AN INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 87 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIELLE HAS BEEN CAPTURED BY A\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15-20 KT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A LARGER AND STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF\r\nNORTHEASTERN CANADA AND HELP TO ACCELERATE WHAT WILL BE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS \r\nA BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND BECOME FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATER THAT WILL BE APPROACHING 20C. BY 72 HOURS...WHAT\r\nWILL BE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DANIELLE AT THAT TIME MAY STRENGTHEN\r\nSOME AS BAROCLINIC ENERGY GETS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE MUCH\r\nLARGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING OUT OF\r\nNORTHEASTERN CANADA. THE EX-DANIELLE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN\r\nLARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES.\r\n \r\nMINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ALREADY LARGE 34-KT WIND RADII\r\nAND THE 12-FT SEAS RADII BASED ON A FEW SURROUNDING BUOY\r\nOBSERVATIONS...AND ON 29/2344Z AND 30/0134 ASCAT WINDS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 40.4N  52.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 41.6N  49.3W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 42.7N  44.3W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 44.0N  38.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 46.0N  32.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 53.0N  26.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 63.0N  32.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danielle","Adv":37,"Date":"2010-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE IS CONTINUING TO\r\nSUBSIDE...WITH THE REMAINING COOL CLOUD TOPS OCCURRING IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 4.0...OR 65 KT.\r\nSIMILARLY...TWO AMSU MEASUREMENTS OF THE WARM CORE ALSO SUGGESTED\r\n70-75 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE EARLIER THIS MORNING.\r\nFINALLY...SHIP WCZ5528 AT 13Z REPORTED 64 KT WINDS...974 MB\r\nPRESSURE...AND SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 52 FEET. DANIELLE\r\nREMAINS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS IN THE MIDST OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND INDEED THE\r\nENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44140 IS HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE VARIOUS GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE\r\nDIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AS THE MAIN BAROCLINIC FORCING ARRIVES THIS\r\nEVENING.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER TRANSITION\r\nWITH PEAK INTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 14 KT.  THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS.  A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYS THREE AND\r\nFOUR IS ANTICIPATED AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FIVE.  THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER\r\nPROVIDED POSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF DANIELLE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 40.9N  50.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 41.9N  47.7W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 43.4N  41.2W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 46.0N  31.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 48.0N  24.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 53.0N  21.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 61.5N  38.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":38,"Date":"2010-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nDANIELLE IS STUBBORNLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  THE CONVECTIVE ENVELOPE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AND RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  USING A SHEAR PATTERN...THE TAFB DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INDICATED A 3.5...OR 55 KT.  AN AMSU\r\nMEASUREMENT OF THE WARM CORE INDICATED 62 KT AT 1616Z USING THE\r\nCIMSS TECHNIQUE.  BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE...DANIELLE IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME.  A 1340Z ASCAT\r\nPASS ALLOWED US TO CONTRACT IN THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII\r\nSOMEWHAT.\r\n \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD PROCEED QUICKLY THIS EVENING.  ALL\r\nAVAILABLE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ALONG WITH THE USE OF THE FSU CYCLONE\r\nPHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT DANIELLE SHOULD BECOME FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY EARLY TUESDAY...AS A SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC ZONE\r\nDEVELOPS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  DANIELLE SHOULD\r\nREMAIN A LARGE CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH PEAK\r\nINTENSITY JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE FOR A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BECOME CAPTURED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE IT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY DAY THREE IS\r\nANTICIPATED AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR. THE TRACK FORECAST DURING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE REVISED TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED\r\nPOSITION...INTENSITY...AND SIZE GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nPORTION OF DANIELLE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 41.3N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 42.0N  45.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 43.0N  38.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 45.5N  30.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 48.0N  23.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 55.5N  23.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":39,"Date":"2010-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062010\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIELLE\r\nHAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN\r\nADDITION...AMSU MEASUREMENTS SHOW THAT THE WARM-CORE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 12\r\nHOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 60 KT BUT IS\r\nFAIRLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF DANIELLE IN RECENT HOURS.  DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF\r\nCONVECTION...WEAKENING OF THE WARM-CORE AND A NON-TROPICAL\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE...DANIELLE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ON THIS ADVISORY. FULL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE A BIT MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED PREVIOUSLY...WITH\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH OVERTAKING DANIELLE BY LATE TOMORROW. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS BECOMING MORE DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH...MAKING THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/13 SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW DANIELLE ROTATING CYCLONICALLY AND ACCELERATING AROUND\r\nA LARGE 500 MB CLOSED CYCLONE MOVING EASTWARD SOUTH OF GREENLAND\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...DANIELLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE ABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS\r\nFEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 41.3N  47.1W    60 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 42.3N  41.8W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 44.3N  34.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 47.0N  26.6W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 50.7N  22.8W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nCORRECTED FOR ADVISORY NUMBER\r\n\r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF\r\nAFRICA TWO DAYS AGO AND PASSED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS\r\nYESTERDAY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS NOW TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SEVEN. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH\r\nWELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...AND AN\r\nESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...WITH DATA-T NUMBERS OF\r\n2.5...ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND THERE IS UNUSUALLY WARM\r\nWATER OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND EVEN DESPITE THE SMALL INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION.  BOTH CLIMATOLOGY AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE ON\r\nTHE SIDE OF STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THREE DAYS OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS  MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nCYCLONE MOST LIKELY WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY DANIELLE.  BY THEN...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nPERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IF THIS PATTERN\r\nMATERIALIZES...IT WOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AWAY\r\nFROM THE LESSER ANTILLES.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 14.3N  30.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.7N  33.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.2N  36.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 16.0N  39.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.5N  42.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N  48.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 19.0N  53.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 20.5N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nTHE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON...TROPICAL STORM EARL...HAS\r\nFORMED IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...ONE WEEK EARLIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY.\r\nHIGH RESOLUTION SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS\r\nCONTINUE TO GROW AND THE CONVECTION...BOTH IN CLUSTERS AND CURVED\r\nBANDS HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB HAVE REACHED 3.0 AND 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING\r\nTHAT THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 35 KNOTS. MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS SHIPS GUIDANCE DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nRELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THE LOW SHEAR\r\nCOMBINED WITH UNUSUALLY WARM OCEAN WOULD FAVOR A GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14 KNOTS. MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFROM AFRICA TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL\r\nLIKELY KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3\r\nTO 4 DAYS. A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AT\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FIVE DAY FORECAST\r\nPOSITION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT...AND IS BASICALLY ON\r\nTOP OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF LOCATION FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THIS WAS\r\nBASED ON THE REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS\r\nIN FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A\r\nLITTLE BIT...THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS STILL FORECAST TO PASS TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LETS SEE WHAT HAPPENS IN THE\r\nNEXT MODEL CYCLE. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 14.4N  32.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.6N  34.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.0N  38.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 15.5N  41.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N  44.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N  50.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 18.0N  55.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 20.0N  60.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF EARL HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE \r\nLATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  BOTH THE STATISTICAL AND\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nSHOW HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THAN BEFORE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE HIGHER THEREAFTER TO \r\nBE MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...ICON.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/14.  EARL\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nIS EXPECTED AROUND DAY 4 AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND\r\nGFDN SHOWING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  FOR NOW...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE USUALLY\r\nRELIABLE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n        \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 14.7N  33.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N  35.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.5N  39.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N  42.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N  45.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 17.4N  51.3W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 19.0N  56.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 21.5N  60.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SPIRAL BANDS\r\nAROUND EARL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...\r\nPARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. THE CYCLONE\r\nSTRUCTURE...HOWEVER...IS STILL A BIT ELONGATED ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO\r\nNORTHEAST AXIS. DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35 KT..RESPECTIVELY.  USING A BLEND OF THE\r\nTWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. THE OCEAN IS\r\nWARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW...CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE\r\nLGEM...HWRF...AND SHIPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE IN 2 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND ALSO\r\nBRINGS EARL TO CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN RATHER DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.\r\nA 2315 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED AN ELONGATED CENTER NEAR THE\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WELL TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  HOWEVER...A SUBSEQUENT\r\nAMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS AT 2318 UTC AND A RECENT 0430 UTC TRMM IMAGE\r\nSUGGESTED THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS...MUCH CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS BEST TRACK. \r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY...AND BASED ON THESE DATA...CONTINUITY WILL BE\r\nMAINTAINED AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS BE NEAR THE NORTHERN\r\nCLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOSE TO THE TRMM FIX.  IF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER DOES REFORM FARTHER SOUTH...THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nWILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTH...OR TO THE LEFT OF THIS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nEARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AN ESTIMATED 285 DEGREES\r\nAT 13 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC TRADE WIND FLOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD A\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND\r\nTHE NAVY GFDN...WHICH ARE BOTH INDICATING AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH\r\nDAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND GFS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 15.2N  34.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.7N  37.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.4N  40.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.6N  43.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.7N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 17.9N  52.3W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 20.0N  57.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 22.5N  60.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE EARL HAS NOT BECOME\r\nANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN FACT...THE INNER\r\nCORE CONVECTION HAS ERODED DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT NOTED IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IN A 0735Z SSMI WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF EARL HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FORECAST TRACK BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE\r\nAND MICROWAVE FIXES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A 24-HOUR\r\nAVERAGE OF 275/15...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL THE WIGGLES AND\r\nWOBBLES IN THE FIXES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE IN PART TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE STEADILY WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW IS THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF HURRICANE\r\nDANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO CAPTURE AND LIFT OUT\r\nTHAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. IF DANIELLE RECURVES FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY EXPECTED...WHICH THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE HINTING AT...\r\nTHEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF EARL COULD BUILD BACK IN SOONER AND\r\nKEEP EARL ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAN INDICATED BY\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE ADVISORY TRACK LIES ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN\r\nQUITE LOW THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT THAT EARL\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THAT TIME IS EXPECTED TO RESULT\r\nIN A SLOWER THAN NORMAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...BY DAYS\r\n4 AND 5...EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY\r\nOF SYNOPTIC-SCALE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE...WHICH GENERALLY FAVORS\r\nDEVELOPMENT DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EARL COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY THAT TIME...AS INDICATED BY THE HWRF MODEL. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 14.9N  37.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.4N  39.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 15.7N  42.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.1N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N  49.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 17.8N  54.4W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 20.0N  58.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 22.5N  61.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nINNER-CORE CONVECTION REMAINS SHALLOW AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED...BUT\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED AND BECOME\r\nMORE CIRCULAR IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. AN 1150Z ASCAT PASS EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING INDICATED EARL POSSESSED A LARGE SWATH OF 34-KT WINDS MORE\r\nTHAN 90 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT HIGHER\r\nNEAR-SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WINDS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...RESPECTIVELY..AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT WINDS. EARL\r\nALSO PASSED JUST NORTH OF PIRATA BUOY 13008 AROUND 1800Z...WHICH\r\nREPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. THIS PRESSURE VALUE WOULD ALSO\r\nSUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nEARL REMAINS ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH 48 HOURS AS THE\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH REMAINS IN PLACE. BY 72\r\nHOURS...EARL IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS\r\nINDUCED BY DANIELLE AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nHELP RECURVE THAT HURRICANE TO THE NORTHEAST. AS EARL APPROACHES\r\nTHE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN\r\nAND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nARE NOW FORECASTING DANIELLE TO RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST FASTER\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...WHICH ALSO ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF EARL.\r\nTHIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN WOULD FORCE EARL MORE WESTWARD THAN\r\nNORTHWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAFTER THAT. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN OR RIGHT EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN THE EVENT THE CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nREDEVELOPS FARTHER NORTH WITHIN THE BROAD CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS\r\nEARL THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS TO\r\nTRAVERSE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. BY 48\r\nHOURS...SOME OF THE NORTHERLY OUTFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE\r\nDANIELLE IS EXPECTED TO CREATE SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS\r\nEARL...WHICH MAY INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY DAYS\r\n4 AND 5...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS EARL MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LARGE SYNOPTIC-SCALE 200 MB ANTICYCLONE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF THIS FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN AND STRENGTHEN EARL TO CATEGORY 4\r\nINTENSITY BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nLOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN\r\nHIGHER AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 15.2N  38.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.6N  41.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 15.9N  44.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N  47.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.7N  50.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 18.2N  55.9W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 20.6N  60.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 23.0N  62.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\n\r\nAFTER LOSING MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARL\r\nHAS DEVELOPED NEW THUNDERSTORM CELLS AROUND THE LARGE AND\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION TONIGHT. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND\r\nSTILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. EARL IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD A WARMER OCEAN AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNDER RELATIVELY\r\nLIGHT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nEARL WILL DEVELOP A DEEP CIRCULATION SURROUNDED BY A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS NORMALLY IS AN INDICATION OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS DEVELOP\r\nEARL INTO AN INTENSE HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE CIRCULATION...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE. USING ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA...THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.\r\nEARL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM\r\nAFRICA WESTWARD TO NEAR 60 DEGREES WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. EARL\r\nSHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nAS IT APPROACHES 60W WHERE THERE IS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...BUT BIASED TO THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 15.5N  40.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N  42.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.3N  46.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N  49.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.7N  52.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 18.5N  58.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 21.0N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 24.0N  65.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nEARL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION THAT REFORMED AROUND 00 UTC HAS\r\nPERSISTED IN BROAD CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER POSITION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT\r\nAND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT.  THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nENVIRONMENTS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL\r\nOF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW EARL STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWHICH BRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 DAYS AND SHOWS\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nEARL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A CONSISTENT WESTWARD PATH AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nSTEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N. EARL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO APPROACH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED\r\nBY HURRICANE DANIELLE...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR MUCH\r\nOF THE PERIOD AND THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 15.9N  41.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.2N  44.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.4N  47.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.6N  50.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 17.2N  53.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 19.0N  59.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 21.5N  62.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  65.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. EARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION...MODERATE BANDS\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION AND FAIR OUTFLOW. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nSTILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS. THE OCEAN AND THE\r\nATMOSPHERE APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE WHICH ARE ALL SHOWING\r\nSTRENGTHENING. IN FACT...BOTH GFDL AND HWRF ARE AGGRESSIVE IN\r\nMAKING EARL AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN 5 DAYS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nEARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO\r\nAPPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nTURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS SINCE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL\r\nESTABLISHED. ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO APPROACH 60 DEGREES WEST...\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS ARE IN LESS AGREEMENT AND THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE\r\nIN THE FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND\r\nTHE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nA DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING\r\nEARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. WITH THE WEEKEND\r\nCOMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF EARL.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 15.7N  43.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.8N  45.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.3N  49.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.8N  53.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 17.5N  56.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 18.8N  60.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 21.5N  64.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 25.0N  67.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nEARL CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nCURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL CONVECTIVE\r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS DEVELOPING ON ITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN\r\nEARLIER ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS. GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT POORLY ORGANIZED PATTERN...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS\r\nANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HOWEVER...EARL WILL BE MOVING SOON OVER AN\r\nEVEN WARMER OCEAN AND UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR EARL\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY AND BECOME AN INTENSE ONE BY DAY\r\nFIVE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY\r\nFORECASTING INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE. IT APPEARS THAT I WAS EITHER SLOW THIS MORNING OR EARL HAS\r\nACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 270 DEGREES OR WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS.  EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. I FEEL A LITTLE MORE CERTAIN WITH THE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN IN THIS FORECAST SINCE ALL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nUNANIMOUSLY BEGIN TO MOVE EARL ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE\r\nBY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK COULD BRING EARL INTO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\nWITH THE WEEKEND COMING...RESIDENTS IN THESE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE  PROGRESS OF EARL. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 15.8N  46.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.9N  48.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N  52.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N  55.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N  58.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 19.5N  62.2W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 23.0N  65.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 27.0N  68.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL.  BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING BETTER\r\nDEFINED...AND A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS LOCATED NEAR OR JUST\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHEAR WILL\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THERE IS ALSO EVIDENCE THAT SOME\r\nDRIER AIR IS LURKING NEAR THE CYCLONE.  THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL BE A BIT BELOW MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...EARL WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. \r\nTHIS PATTERN IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY\r\nCONSIDERING THE 29C PLUS SSTS IN THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE.  THE\r\nGFDL/GFDN RESPOND TO THESE CONDITIONS BY FORECASTING EARL TO BECOME\r\nA CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE IN THE LONG-RANGE.  WHILE THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST WILL NOT BE THAT AGGRESSIVE...IT IS INCREASED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n\r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGESTS THE CENTER REMAINS A BIT\r\nELONGATED...THUS CONFIDENCE IN MY INITIAL MOTION OF 275/18 IS LOWER\r\nTHAN AVERAGE.  A STRONG RIDGE BETWEEN EARL AND DANIELLE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO KEEP THE TROPICAL STORM MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...EARL WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. \r\nALTHOUGH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW CLOSE EARL\r\nWILL COME.  THE GFS HAS THE STRONGEST RIDGE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND MOVES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THAN MOST OF\r\nTHE OTHER GUIDANCE.  AT THIS POINT...IT IS PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY\r\nCHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED FASTER TOWARDS THE WEST THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LEFT EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE FIRST THREE DAYS...THEN IS JUST\r\nLEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THE END.  \r\n \r\nRESIDENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF EARL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.  WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED AS EARLY\r\nAS SATURDAY MORNING.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 16.0N  47.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.2N  50.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.6N  54.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.3N  56.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.1N  59.1W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N  63.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 24.5N  66.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 29.0N  68.5W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nEARL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nCONSISTS OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -80 C AND A\r\nLARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM. THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER BUT\r\nREMAINS RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA 0413 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EARL\r\nWAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  USING\r\nA COMBINATION OF THIS OVERPASS AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 270/18.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP EARL ON A RATHER\r\nQUICK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO NEAR A BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE SCALE\r\nPATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS OF THE\r\nTIMING...LOCATION AND SHARPNESS OF THE TURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TRENDS TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS EARL MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS AND\r\nINTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND NOW\r\nBRINGS EARL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS AND TO MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN 3 DAYS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND\r\nPOSSIBLY INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE \r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 15.7N  50.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N  52.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N  55.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 17.2N  58.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 18.2N  60.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 20.8N  64.2W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N  67.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 29.5N  69.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE LARGE AND VIGOROUS AND THE\r\nAMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED ON\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS HAS RESULTED\r\nFROM SOME MODEST NORTHERLY SHEAR CAUSED BY THE OUTFLOW OF LARGER\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN\r\nEARLIER TODAY...T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. \r\nTHE CURRENT NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE SOON AS DANIELLE\r\nMOVES NORTHWARD AND...IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION BY\r\nSUNDAY.  THIS FLOW PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH A WARM OCEAN ALONG\r\nTHE TRACK...WOULD RESULT IN INTENSIFICATION. EARL IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY WITH A STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nEARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 16 OR 17\r\nKNOTS STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nHOWEVER...IN A DAY OR SO...EARL WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST. THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN STILL FAVORS A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AT\r\nTHIS TIME...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO CHANGE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nFOR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS BUT A DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO\r\nTHE WEST WOULD REQUIRE ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS.\r\n \r\nA NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION WILL PROBABLY CHECK THE SYSTEM\r\nLATER TODAY WHILE A NOAA GULFSTREAM JET SAMPLES THE ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE FIRST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INTO EARL IS SCHEDULED\r\nFOR EARLY SUNDAY.\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 16.0N  51.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 16.1N  54.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 17.8N  60.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 18.7N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 21.5N  66.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 25.0N  69.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  71.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED EARLIER TODAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR HAS BEGUN TO RELAX AND THE CENTER IS NOW TUCKED INTO THE\r\nCONVECTION ONCE AGAIN. EARL HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE VIGOROUS\r\nCIRCULATION AND ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nWEST DUE TO THE STILL PREVAILING NORTHERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND BECAUSE THERE IS PLENTY\r\nOF VERY WARM WATERS ALONG\r\nTHE TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH A\r\nSIMILAR TREND INDICATED BY THE LGEM MODEL...AND MAKES EARL AN\r\nINTENSE HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nEARL HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGIN TO\r\nTURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODELS WHICH ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT. DUE TO AN INITIAL MOTION WHICH HAS BEEN A LITTLE MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST THAN INDICATED BY TRACK MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY\r\nDURING THE NEXT FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A\r\nSIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS EARL MOVES NEAR OR OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nA NOAA-P3 AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS EN ROUTE TO CHECK EARL AND\r\nWILL LIKELY GIVE US A BETTER MEASUREMENT OF THE INTENSITY AND THE\r\nWIND RADII.\r\n  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 16.5N  54.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 17.0N  57.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 17.5N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 18.3N  61.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N  63.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 21.0N  67.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 25.0N  70.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 30.5N  72.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER FLYING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO EARL REPORTED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORTING A INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55\r\nKT.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB OF 55 KT...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 56 KT.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 989 MB.\r\nWHILE EARL IS STILL SHOWING SIGNS OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND\r\nORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17.  EARL IS APPROACHING THE END OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SEPARATING IT FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE...WITH\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF\r\nCUBA AND HISPANIOLA.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF EARL DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...\r\nWHILE THE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND POSSIBLY\r\nSTRENGTHENS.  THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL STEER EARL GENERALLY TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TRYING TO TURN IT NORTHWARD AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES.  OVERALL...THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE EARL TO\r\nMOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE TROUGH EXERTS A\r\nGREATER INFLUENCE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 12 HR BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  AFTER THAT...IT LIES A LITTLE TO LEFT\r\nOF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nAND THE GFDL.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR AND ALLOW EARL TO STRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT EARL SHOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72\r\nHR...IF NOT SOONER...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC AFTER 72 HR...AS THERE\r\nARE DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ON HOW MUCH SHEAR EARL\r\nWILL ENCOUNTER AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF FORECAST LIGHT ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW EARL TO MAINTAIN ITS\r\nSTRENGTH...WHILE THE UKMET FORECASTS STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS TO CAUSE EARL TO SHEAR APART.  AT THIS TIME...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH SLOW WEAKENING\r\nAFTER 96 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY REVISED\r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES HURRICANE WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.  ADDITIONAL\r\nWARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 16.6N  55.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 17.0N  57.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 17.5N  60.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 18.1N  62.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 19.0N  63.9W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 22.0N  68.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 25.0N  71.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 31.0N  72.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF EARL OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED IN\r\nA LARGE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  EARL APPEARS TO BE\r\nEXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM\r\nHURRICANE DANIELLE...AND THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING SOON AS DANIELLE CONTINUES MOVING\r\nAWAY...AND EARL SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL\r\nSUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\n...AND REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 72 TO 96 HOURS.  THE NHC \r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nICON CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nOVERNIGHT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/16 IS LARGELY\r\nBASED ON CONTINUITY.  EARL WILL SOON REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A\r\nBREAK DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 65 TO 70W AS THE\r\nLARGE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTING WITH DANIELLE LIFTS OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING EARL\r\nTURNING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS WEAKNESS IN 2 OR 3 DAYS...AND THEN\r\nACCELERATING NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND IS\r\nFASTER LATE IN THE PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...EARL WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN\r\nTO DETERIORATE IN THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 16.9N  56.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 17.3N  59.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 17.9N  61.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 18.7N  63.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 19.9N  65.4W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  69.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 29.0N  72.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  72.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nEARL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH\r\nSEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND A\r\nDEVELOPING CDO.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nFOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF\r\n64 KT EARLIER THIS MORNING.  THESE MEASUREMENTS SUPPORTED THE\r\nEARLIER UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS. \r\n \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE TODAY...AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS\r\nSUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR\r\nTHE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...PREDICTING THAT\r\nEARL WILL ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL\r\nAND THE LOWER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/15 KT.  EARL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT APPROACHES\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS\r\nAS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN \r\nA NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REGIONAL HURRICANE\r\nMODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHE FASTER SOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nPERSONS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT THE HURRICANE IS\r\nNOT A POINT SINCE HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 17.2N  58.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 17.6N  60.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N  62.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 19.6N  64.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N  66.3W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 25.2N  69.8W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N  72.0W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 37.0N  71.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EARL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE DAY.  SEVERAL CURVED BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE SEEN SURROUNDING\r\nA CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.  THERE ARE NO HINTS OF AN EYE IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER AN EYE IS APPARENT IN RECENT RADAR\r\nIMAGERY FROM GUADELOUPE AND WAS ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT A\r\nFEW HOURS AGO.  ALTHOUGH THE PLANE DID NOT FIND HIGHER FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nOR SFMR WINDS THAN IT DID THIS MORNING...THE MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nREPORTED WAS LOWER ON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 978 MB.\r\nBASED ON SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...\r\nAND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT.  A NOAA P-3 AIRCRAFT ON A\r\nRESEARCH MISSION SHOULD BE IN EARL SHORTLY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT\r\nAIR FORCE C-130 MISSION BETWEEN 0000 AND 0600 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT TODAY YIELD AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF ABOUT 285/12...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EARL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN 36-48 HOURS.  EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO\r\nGREAT LAKES REGION IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES IN\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN\r\nFASTER THAN THE GFDL/HWRF AND THE OFFICIAL CONTINUES TO BE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RATHER FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL\r\nMODELS SHOW EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 17.6N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.0N  61.3W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 18.9N  63.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N  65.1W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 22.1N  66.9W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 27.3N  70.2W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 33.5N  71.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 40.0N  68.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010\r\n \r\nEARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND\r\nSPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR.  BASED ON THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT.  IMAGES FROM\r\nTHE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT\r\n30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY\r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE NHC WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE\r\nLATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE\r\nIN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE.  BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING\r\nAND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON\r\nDYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 17.9N  61.1W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 18.5N  62.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 19.6N  64.6W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 21.1N  66.4W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 22.8N  68.2W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 27.5N  71.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 34.0N  72.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  67.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nSINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED JUST PRIOR TO 0600 UTC...AN EYE HAS BEEN\r\nOCCASIONALLY APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND HAS BECOME \r\nBETTER DEFINED WITH A DIAMETER OF ABOUT 25 NM ON THE ST. MAARTEN\r\nRADAR.  THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 97 KT\r\nAT 0510 UTC...AND 0600 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 90 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OUTFLOW IS IMPROVING IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AND IS GOOD ELSEWHERE...AND THE OVERALL\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND SHOWS EARL REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A BROAD PEAK IN INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND\r\n72 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nBASED ON AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS 285/13.  EARL WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ALONG 25N.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH\r\n24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nFARTHER WEST...ESPECIALLY AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AS EARL TURNS\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING\r\nFROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  GIVEN THE LARGE\r\nSHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE LEFT...OR WEST...BUT STILL LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK\r\nFORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  GIVEN THIS\r\nUNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT...IF ANY...PARTS OF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL LATER THIS\r\nWEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 18.3N  62.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 19.1N  64.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N  66.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 21.9N  67.8W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 24.0N  69.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 29.5N  73.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 35.5N  72.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 42.0N  65.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM BOTH\r\nSAN JUAN AND ST. MAARTEN. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nMEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KT IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nEYEWALL AROUND 1200 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT HAS NOT SAMPLED THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT AGAIN...BUT FOUND 90 KT SFMR WINDS IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST EYEWALL AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 960 MB. THIS SUPPORTS\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 105 KT...CATEGORY THREE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. THE LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER\r\nENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF EARL APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SUPPORTS KEEPING EARL\r\nAT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL\r\nCYCLES COULD INDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13.  EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...EARL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE\r\nGREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK\r\nFORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  GIVEN THIS\r\nUNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 18.7N  63.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N  65.1W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 21.0N  67.0W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 22.8N  68.7W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 25.2N  70.6W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 31.0N  73.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 37.5N  71.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 45.5N  63.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 116 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND\r\n108 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS SHORTLY AFTER 1500 UTC.  THIS WAS THE\r\nBASIS FOR THE EARLIER INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE\r\nPRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND WAS DOWN TO 955 MB ON THE LAST\r\nDROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE EYE AROUND 1700 UTC.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDEPARTED EARL...THE EYE HAS CONTINUED TO CLEAR AND IS SURROUNDED BY\r\nCLOUD TOPS TO -70 DEGREES CELSIUS OR COLDER.  OBJECTIVE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO JUST ABOVE 6.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KT...CATEGORY FOUR ON\r\nTHE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.\r\n \r\nEARL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM\r\nWATER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.  THEREAFTER...EYEWALL CYCLES WILL LIKELY\r\nINDUCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO\r\nPREDICT.  THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SHEAR WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED AS EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST\r\n48 HOURS...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD...\r\nPRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nTHIS IS A GOOD TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT NHC AVERAGE TRACK\r\nFORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 300 MILES AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  GIVEN THIS\r\nUNCERTAINTY...IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE WHAT PORTION OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST MIGHT SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM EARL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 19.3N  64.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 20.2N  66.3W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 21.7N  68.1W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 23.4N  70.1W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 25.8N  72.1W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 31.6N  74.7W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 38.0N  71.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 45.5N  63.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF EARL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR THE TIME\r\nBEING.  DROPSONDE MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  THERE WAS ALSO AN UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND\r\nOF 111 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT A\r\nCONCENTRIC EYEWALL OR CONVECTIVE RING MAY BE FORMING.  THIS WOULD\r\nAT LEAST TEMPORARILY HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW TO CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVE SOUTHWARD...WHICH IS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW EVOLUTION THAT IS USUALLY CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE GFS PREDICTS AROUND 18-20 KT OF\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER EARL IN 24-48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BACKED OFF SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nALSO...SOME OSCILLATIONS IN INTENSIYY DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS\r\nOR OTHER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PROCESSES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OF EARL BUT THE MEAN\r\nMOTION HAS BEEN ABOUT 300/12 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AS EARL MOVES\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BY DAY\r\n3...A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES\r\nALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD PROVIDE AN EASTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF STEERING BY DAY 4...AND EARL IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.   THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN RATHER CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT UP TO 72 HOURS...BUT BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AFTER THAT\r\nFORECAST TIME.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS...ONCE AGAIN...\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF EARL.  THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS\r\nTO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 19.9N  65.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 20.9N  67.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 22.6N  69.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 24.6N  71.4W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 26.9N  73.4W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 38.5N  70.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 46.0N  62.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER REPORTED\r\n700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 124 KT...AND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 112 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 931 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 115 KT.  SINCE THE PLANE LEFT...A TRMM OVERPASS AND DATA FROM\r\nTHE SAN JUAN WSR-88D RADAR INDICATE THAT EARL HAS STARTED AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nARRIVE IN EARL NEAR 12Z TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY\r\nFOR NOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 295/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EARL\r\nSHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE\r\nRIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 72 HR...WITH SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nDIRECTIONS BETWEEN THE LEFT-MOST HWRF AND THE RIGHT-MOST GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES JUST LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC.  THE GFDL AND GFDN\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT EARL COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR\r\nSO...AND THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE HURRICANE COMPLETES THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT QUICKLY ENOUGH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...EARL IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR\r\nAPPROACHING THE HURRICANE FROM THE NORTH.  THESE FACTORS COULD\r\nPREVENT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nFOLLOW THE GFDL/GFDN SCENARIO WITH A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...BASED ON THE HURRICANE COMPLETING THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND THE DRY AIR NOT REACHING THE HURRICANE\r\nCORE.  THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES EARL OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  \r\n \r\nINTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF EARL.  THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS\r\nTO HOW CLOSE THE HURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 20.5N  66.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 21.4N  68.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 23.3N  70.3W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 25.5N  72.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  73.8W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 33.5N  74.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 40.0N  69.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 48.0N  60.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n \r\nTHE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED ON VISIBLE IMAGES AND THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nIN A DECREASE IN THE DVORAK NUMBERS AND IN AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nPRESSURE TO 939 MB. THIS APPARENT WEAKENING IS MOST LIKELY RELATED\r\nTO AN ONGOING EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AS INDICATED BY THE DOUBLE\r\nEYE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON MICROWAVE DATA AT 1035 UTC. HOWEVER...AN\r\nAVERAGE OF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115\r\nKNOTS. NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT THERE IS A\r\nCHANCE FOR EARL TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF\r\nTHE OUTER EYEWALL SHRINKS. DESPITE THE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...\r\nEARL MOST LIKELY WILL RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR STATUS FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.\r\n \r\nEARL HAS CONTINUED TO WOBBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE\r\nAVERAGE MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKNOTS. EARL HAS BEEN STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP EARL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST AND EARL WILL LIKELY TURN NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THIS IS THE SCENARIO PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST BEFORE 48 HOURS AND IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE TRACK AND THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER TODAY. INTERESTS FROM THE CAROLINAS\r\nNORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.\r\nTHERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW CLOSE THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 21.2N  67.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 22.3N  69.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 24.8N  71.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 27.3N  73.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 30.5N  75.0W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 43.5N  66.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  57.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS\r\nEARLIER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AROUND 1700 UTC REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 128 KNOTS.\r\nTHESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.\r\nCURRENTLY...THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISRUPTING THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF EARL.  THIS SHEAR\r\nIS CAUSED BY A WEAK UPPER-LOW OR TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BAHAMAS AS\r\nOBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES.  HOWEVER...MODELS WEAKEN THE UPPER\r\nLOW AS EARL MOVES AROUND IT...RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. EARL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CATEGORY FOUR\r\nINTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nEARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR\r\n13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS\r\nSTEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES\r\nAND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.  ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW\r\nMILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF\r\nAND THE GFS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nEARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE\r\nAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-\r\nATLANTIC COAST.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF EARL. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 22.0N  68.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.3N  70.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 25.6N  72.8W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 28.0N  74.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 31.0N  75.5W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 36.0N  73.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 44.0N  65.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 56.0N  55.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":27,"Date":"2010-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n\r\nEARL REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  AN EYE\r\nOF ABOUT 20 N MI IN DIAMETER IS EVIDENT ON THE INFRARED IMAGES...\r\nAND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL-DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PART OF THE CIRCULATION...AS CONFIRMED BY SURVELLIANCE\r\nDATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET THIS EVENING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 115 KT BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THERE IS\r\nCURRENTLY ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER EARL AS DEPICTED\r\nBY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES.  THIS SHEAR SHOULD LESSEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...IS\r\nPREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  THIS EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW\r\nEARL TO MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE GFDL\r\nHURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.  BY DAY 4...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW EARL\r\nBECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH WELL-DEFINED THERMAL\r\nADVECTION SO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK HAS BEEN WOBBLING AS IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE HURRICANES BUT\r\nTHE MEAN MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS ABOUT 310/13.  THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  EARL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTERWARDS...A VIGOROUS MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nAT 500 MB WILL APPROACH THE EAST COAST AND SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nHURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  OF COURSE...THE\r\nTIMING OF THIS TURN IS CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER\r\nWILL COME TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE\r\nEXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...AND ALSO\r\nBECAUSE EARL IS A LARGE HURRICANE AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CAN BE\r\nWELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 23.0N  69.9W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 24.5N  71.6W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  73.5W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 29.8N  75.0W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 32.7N  75.2W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 39.0N  70.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 47.0N  62.0W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 56.0N  58.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":28,"Date":"2010-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF EARL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A\r\nLITTLE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 941 MB...WHICH IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM EARLIER. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 116 KT...WHICH WAS\r\nLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS MISSION...AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTHE SFMR WERE UNDER 100 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO\r\n110 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nEARL IS MOVING 310-315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KT.  FOR THE NEXT 36 OR\r\nSO...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD\r\nON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT...EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE END OF THE RIDGE AND ENTERS\r\nTHE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SMALL\r\nDIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT COULD HAVE LARGE IMPLICATIONS\r\nIN TERMS OF IMPACTS.  THE GFDN...NOGAPS...AND UKMET FORECAST THE\r\nCENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND NEW\r\nENGLAND.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE FARTHER TO THE EAST...KEEPING THE\r\nCENTER OFFSHORE.  THROUGH 48 HR...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA\r\nCOAST...AND LIES JUST WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nAFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK DOES LIKEWISE TO BE IN THE CENTER\r\nOF THE ENVELOPE.  THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE NEW\r\nENGLAND STATES THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CONUNDRUM.  ON THE FAVORABLE SIDE...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HAS GOOD\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND HAS A\r\nGOOD CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE...EARL IS\r\nEXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR\r\nWRAPPED MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE.  SOME SHEAR IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...AND NONE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH FOR 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING AS EARL ENCOUNTERS\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SHEAR.  EARL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HR.  \r\n \r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 24.0N  71.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 25.8N  72.9W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 28.5N  74.6W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 31.3N  75.2W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 34.6N  74.4W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 42.0N  68.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 50.0N  61.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 57.0N  58.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":29,"Date":"2010-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT EARL HAS A DISTINCT\r\nEYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION. A BLEND BETWEEN\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE STILL 110 KNOTS.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...WHICH SHOWS A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AND THE WARM OCEAN ALONG THE TRACK OF EARL...THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE HURRICANE COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL MODEL \r\nSHOWS A STEADY STATE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...AND THIS TREND IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTER\r\n48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR RESULTING IN WEAKENING. BY DAY 5 THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.      \r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS.\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL\r\nSHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY\r\nNORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE\r\nBASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL\r\nPASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH\r\nCAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION\r\nTO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE \r\nTO THE COAST.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE WIND RADII ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nEARL...A HURRICANE WARNING WAS REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA COAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 25.1N  72.1W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 27.0N  73.7W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 29.8N  75.0W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 32.8N  75.2W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 36.0N  73.6W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 44.0N  66.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 55.0N  60.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":30,"Date":"2010-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY\r\nDISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.\r\nHOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF\r\nTHESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL\r\nHAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES\r\nAT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION\r\nCONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO\r\nTHE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON\r\nTHURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE\r\nWEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND\r\nTHE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE\r\nBEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 26.3N  73.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 28.4N  74.7W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 31.7N  75.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 35.1N  74.7W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 38.5N  72.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  63.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 58.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":31,"Date":"2010-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF EARL HAS\r\nBECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE\r\nCOOLED.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nHURRICANE FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...AND THEY MEASURED WINDS TO 137 KT JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER AT A FLIGHT LEVEL JUST BELOW 7000 FT.  REDUCING THIS WIND\r\nSPEED FROM THE AIRCRAFT FLIGHT LEVEL TO THE SURFACE YIELDS ABOUT\r\n120 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES ARE LIKELY ON\r\nTHURSDAY.  EARL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS...THEREFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...EARL IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS WHEN IT IS NEAREST TO...OR POSSIBLY OVER...THE OUTER BANKS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE WOBBLED NORTHWARD A COUPLE OF HOURS\r\nAGO...HOWEVER THE MEAN MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT 330/16. NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS NUDGED EASTWARD ABOUT 20 N\r\nMI ON THIS CYCLE. EARL IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCELERATE.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF\r\nTHIS LARGE AND INTENSE HURRICANE.  SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY\r\nTO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 27.8N  73.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 30.0N  75.1W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 33.2N  75.2W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  73.7W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  70.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 48.5N  61.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 57.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":32,"Date":"2010-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS\r\nAT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT.  EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK\r\nINTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A\r\nLITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR. \r\nEARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE\r\nEND OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER.  AFTER 48 HR...THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION\r\nOF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT\r\nSTILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EARL SHOULD MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY FOR 12 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND MOTION OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD\r\nCAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AT\r\nABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR...WITH THE REMNANTS OF EARL\r\nBEING ABSORBED INTO A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 29.3N  74.7W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 31.7N  75.3W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  74.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 38.1N  72.6W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 41.6N  69.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 50.5N  62.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":33,"Date":"2010-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT\r\nAN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND\r\nFIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A DISTINCT\r\nEYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nAND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 120 KNOTS.  EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY\r\nREACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN\r\nGRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN\r\nFASTER AFTER 36 HOURS...AS IT MOVES OVER A COLDER OCEAN.  EARL\r\nSHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE THEREAFTER AS\r\nIT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nAS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT\r\n16 KNOTS.  SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS SHARP TURN\r\nHAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 30.9N  74.8W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 33.5N  75.0W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 36.5N  73.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 40.0N  70.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 44.0N  67.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 53.5N  62.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":34,"Date":"2010-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EARL HAS WEAKENED A\r\nLITTLE BIT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 947\r\nMB...AND A BLEND OF THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS. EARL\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN EVEN FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER\r\nA COLDER OCEAN.  AFTER CROSSING CANADA IN 48 HOURS...EARL SHOULD\r\nBECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL AND THEN DISSIPATE AS IT IS\r\nABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW...AS ANTICIPATED...THAT EARL\r\nHAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING 360 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THE\r\nSTEERING PATTERN CONTROLLING THE MOTION OF EARL...AND THE\r\nCONSISTENCY IN TRACK GUIDANCE...HAVE BEEN ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED IN\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. EARL IS ABOUT TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW AND IT IS READY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL\r\nCONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 32.5N  75.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  74.8W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 38.0N  72.7W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 41.7N  69.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":35,"Date":"2010-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING SHOW THAT EARL HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 951 MB.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 111 KT...HOWEVER THE HIGHEST\r\nSURFACE WIND MEASURED RECENTLY BY THE SFMR WAS 84 KT...AND DROPSONDE\r\nDATA ARE CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WINDS IN THE 80 TO 90 KT RANGE.\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 90\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALONG WITH MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY SHOW THAT THE OLD INNER EYEWALL HAS DISSIPATED...AND A\r\nLARGER 50 N MI WIDE EYE IS NOW REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE\r\nIN RADAR IMAGERY FROM MOREHEAD CITY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO\r\n20 KNOTS IS CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...AND OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES\r\nNORTHWARD OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHEAR INCREASES.  MODEL FIELDS AND\r\nCYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW EARL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48\r\nHOURS...AND BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD\r\nSLIGHTLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES SHOW THAT EARL HAS TURNED TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/15. \r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND SHOWS AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS EARL IS CAPTURED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  LATER FORECASTS MAY BE ADJUSTED FARTHER\r\nEASTWARD IF THE CURRENT MOTION TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH CONTINUES.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE HAVE DECREASED...EARL\r\nCONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE\r\nWIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  EARL\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE\r\nPORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...AND NEW\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST\r\nOF MASSACHUSETTS AND MAINE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 33.8N  74.4W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 36.2N  73.7W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 39.5N  70.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 43.9N  66.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 48.4N  61.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":36,"Date":"2010-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n\r\nEARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT\r\nIN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE\r\nMAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE\r\nDATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  EARL SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL\r\nFORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN\r\nNEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 015-020 AT ABOUT 16 KT.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nTHAT EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  A TURN\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 36 HR AS EARL\r\nUNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST\r\nEARL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE COD...AND ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE ARE DECREASING...EARL\r\nCONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE WITH THE WIND RADII EXPANDED IN\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON ASCAT DATA.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION\r\nOF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 35.3N  74.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 37.8N  72.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 41.6N  68.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 45.9N  64.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 50.7N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":37,"Date":"2010-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nINDICATE THAT EARL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD AS A\r\nHURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WHICH\r\nSHOULD AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND\r\nCOASTS. EARL SHOULD REACH CANADA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND\r\nTHEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nEARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18\r\nKNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nEARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 36.8N  73.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 39.7N  70.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 43.8N  66.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 49.0N  62.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 52.0N  56.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":38,"Date":"2010-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nEARL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND WEAKENING. BASED ON THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION AND EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...EARL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR CAPE COD\r\nAS A HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.\r\nTHESE WINDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID-ATLANTIC\r\nAND NEW ENGLAND COASTS. EARL IS EXPECTED TO REACH CANADA AS A\r\nSTRONG TROPICAL STORM AND THEN BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nEARL IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 18\r\nKNOTS...BUT IT SHOULD SOON INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS ALREADY RECURVED WHILE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. EARL SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 38.2N  71.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 41.2N  69.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  64.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 51.5N  59.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":39,"Date":"2010-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nEARL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  WHILE THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS 958 MB...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT EARL\r\nIS NOW BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF PEAK SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 55 KT AND A 700-MB\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 67 KT JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC.  THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH EARL IS INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR OF\r\n15-20 KT AND DRY AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  EARL WILL BE\r\nCROSSING THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM SOON...AND COLD WATER\r\nAND INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND PHASE\r\nSPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT EARL WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRANSITION COMPLETE IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 035 DEGREES\r\nAT 22 KNOTS.  EARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES\r\nINTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...MUCH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT EARL WILL\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A DISTINCT CYCLONE THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING OR BEING ABSORBED.  THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nPORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON COORDINATION WITH THE OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nEARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS\r\nAND RAINFALL TO MUCH OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 40.0N  69.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 43.1N  66.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 48.2N  61.6W    45 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 57.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":40,"Date":"2010-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010\r\n \r\nBOTH DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS EARL HAS DEVELOPED A RING OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE\r\nCONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER...WHICH RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL. BASED ON\r\nTHE LAST RECON DATA...LITTLE CHANGE NOTED IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/26. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY REASONINGS.\r\nEARL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATER AND INTERACTS WITH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LANDMASSES.\r\nHOWEVER...EARL IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY LARGE AND STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFTER IT PASSES NORTH OF NOVA\r\nSCOTIA LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK IS BASED ON\r\nCOORDINATION WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nEARL REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WILL BRING HIGH WINDS\r\nAND RAINFALL TO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AND TO THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 41.7N  67.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 45.4N  63.3W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 50.1N  58.8W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 54.0N  55.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 56.0N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 56.5N  55.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":41,"Date":"2010-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010\r\n \r\nEARL HAS MAINTAINED SOME CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATING THAT IT IS STILL A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST THE RAIN SHIELD HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE WIND FIELD IS\r\nEXPANDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT EARL IS GRADUALLY\r\nBEGINNING TO ACQUIRE SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 60 KNOTS...BASED ON\r\nSURROUNDING SURFACE DATA. EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE AS A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nEARL HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST OF 035 DEGREES AT 30 KNOTS.  THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 44.3N  64.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 48.0N  60.7W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 52.5N  56.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 55.5N  53.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":42,"Date":"2010-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010\r\n \r\nLARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE EARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BECOMING A LITTLE BIT ASYMMETRIC AND THE WIND FIELD IS\r\nEXPANDING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER FOR SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE CYCLONE. THIS MEANS THAT EARL STILL\r\nIS RETAINING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND\r\nBECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 47.5N  62.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 52.0N  58.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 55.0N  55.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 55.7N  51.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 57.0N  51.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":43,"Date":"2010-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE WIND FIELD OF EARL HAS BECOME\r\nINCREASINGLY ELONGATED AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW WELL REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CENTER.  DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH\r\nINTERACTING WITH EARL HAS BEEN ENTRAINED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  ALSO...THE EASTERN PORTION OF EARL/S\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOW INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE.  BASED ON ALL\r\nOF THIS...EARL IS NOW DECLARED POST-TROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST NHC ADVISORY ON EARL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT\r\nBASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS EARL\r\nCOMPLETES THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE...AND IS NOW 030/40.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF\r\nPOST-TROPICAL EARL NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LABRADOR AND INTO THE\r\nATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  EARL WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BECOMES A\r\nVERTICALLY STACKED COLD CORE CYCLONE BEFORE ACCELERATING EASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND DISSIPATING IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.\r\n \r\nEARL IS STILL PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nATLANTIC CANADA.  FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL IN\r\nCANADA...SEE PRODUCTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL EARL CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 50.7N  59.2W    55 KT...POST-TROPICAL \r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 52.9N  55.4W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 55.0N  52.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 57.0N  53.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 57.0N  55.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 54.0N  50.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 52.0N  36.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nEARLIER TODAY...ABOUT 30 DROPSONDES WERE RELEASED DURING A G-V\r\nRESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR\r\nATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT\r\n800 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ONE OF THE DROPSONDES\r\nMEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 35 KT APPROXIMATELY 120 N MI TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THIS MEASUREMENT AGREES WITH AN\r\nASCAT PASS FROM 1208 UTC...WHICH SHOWED A SWATH OF 30-35 KT WINDS\r\nIN THAT SAME AREA.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE THIN FOR MOST OF\r\nTHE DAY...BUT BANDING FEATURES HAVE RECENTLY BECOME MORE PROMINENT\r\nMAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION AND SINCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY\r\nOCCURRING...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DIRECTLY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nFIONA.\r\n\r\nSINCE FIONA STILL LACKS SOME ORGANIZATION AND THE WIND FIELD IS\r\nSOMEWHAT LARGE...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME\r\nINTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  I DO NOT BELIEVE THIS\r\nSTRUCTURE IS HANDLED WELL BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH INTENSIFY FIONA TO A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...SO I AM INCLINED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND\r\nHWRF AT THIS POINT.  IN FACT...THE GFS DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN\r\n2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS MINIMAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 DAYS AND THEN LEVELS OUT THE\r\nINTENSITY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WHEN IT APPEARS THAT INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR COULD BECOME A LIMITING FACTOR. \r\n\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/21.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SHOWS FIONA TURNING TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST...GENERALLY FOLLOWING EARL AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND GFS KEEP FIONA AS A WEAK SYSTEM AND SHOW IT\r\nCONTINUING TO THE NORTH IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND EARL.  THE\r\nECMWF...ON THE OTHER HAND...SHOWS A STRONGER FIONA AND SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COULD BUILD BACK TO THE WEST BEFORE THE\r\nCYCLONE CAN RECURVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCN FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN LIES A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE CONSENSUS IN FAVOR OF THE TRACKS OF THE WEAKER GFDL\r\nAND HWRF.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 14.4N  48.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 14.9N  51.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 15.8N  55.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 17.2N  59.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.3N  62.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N  66.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 27.5N  68.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 29.0N  69.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 30 2010\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF FIONA THIS\r\nEVENING. HOWEVER...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY DISORGANIZED\r\nWITH JUST A FEW WEAK BANDING FEATURES. A NOAA/NTAS BUOY LOCATED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1008 MB A FEW HOURS\r\nAGO...WHICH IS ABOUT THE SAME PRESSURE AS BUOY 41041 MEASURED\r\nEARLIER TODAY. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF FIONA...\r\nONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nWHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT\r\nSHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND\r\nMAY HALT ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...PLUS THE CYCLONE COULD BE MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS THAT WERE UPWELLED BY EARL. MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS...SAVE THE GFDL/GFDN...ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...I DO NOT\r\nHAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  \r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING 280/21.\r\nFIONA SHOULD MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...EVENTUALLY TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE FAIRLY\r\nWELL CLUSTERED...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF.  THAT MODEL IS ON THE LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PERHAPS BECAUSE IT SHOWS A DEEPER\r\nFIONA RESPONDING TO STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. \r\nSINCE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING THAT SCENARIO...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 15.1N  50.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 15.7N  54.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 16.9N  57.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 18.4N  60.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 20.5N  63.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 25.0N  67.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 28.0N  69.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N  69.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n \r\nFIONA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nDEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A FEW CURVED BANDS MAINLY OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...ALTHOUGH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS\r\nRECENTLY FORMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH AN 0056 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS AND A 1007 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM BUOY 41040. ONLY A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...SOME DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE...AND\r\nCURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR INCREASING SIGNIFICANTLY IN 24-36 HOURS...AND IF\r\nCORRECT...THAT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THIS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND REMAINS NEAR THE\r\nLOW END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0303 UTC\r\nSUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALBEIT NOT VERY EASY TO\r\nLOCATE...WAS SITUATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN\r\n285/20. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 25 N OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FIONA ON A RATHER\r\nFAST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY HURRICANE EARL...AND THAT SHOULD\r\nCAUSE FIONA TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE\r\nECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN THE LEFT-MOST MODEL FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nCYCLES...IS NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IN\r\nGENERAL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 15.8N  53.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N  55.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 17.8N  59.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.6N  61.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 21.8N  64.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 26.5N  67.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 29.0N  68.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 30.5N  69.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n \r\nA 0929 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWED CURVED BANDS OF\r\nCONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED...WHILE NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT...BASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO \r\nINVESTIGATE FIONA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/21 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT\r\nNEARS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...\r\nFIONA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD\r\nBETWEEN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD ALONG\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...FIONA SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FIONA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA STRENGTHENS...AND NORTHEASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS INCREASE.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND NO\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE GFS...IS THAT FIONA COULD WEAKEN AND POSSIBLY\r\nDISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 15.9N  55.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 16.9N  58.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 18.7N  61.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 21.1N  63.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.4N  65.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 27.7N  67.8W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 31.0N  67.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  66.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nFIONA...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION SHOWS LITTLE BANDING.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nFOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT AND SEVERAL UNFLAGGED\r\nSFMR WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE\r\nINCREASING UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND\r\nONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/21 KT.  FIONA IS FORECAST\r\nTO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE VERY SOON AS IT APPROACHES\r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND HURRICANE EARL\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST.  ALL OF GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE STORM IN 2-3\r\nDAYS AS THE SMALLER CIRCULATION OF FIONA BECOMES AN OPEN TROUGH IN\r\nTHE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF EARL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER DISSIPATION COULD\r\nOCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 16.7N  57.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 17.9N  60.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 20.2N  63.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.0N  66.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 26.5N  67.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 33.5N  67.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 31 2010\r\n\r\nTHE METEO FRANCE GUADELOUPE-MARTINIQUE RADAR MOSAIC WAS VERY HELPFUL\r\nIN IDENTIFYING THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF FIONA.  DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A\r\nRATHER SHAPELESS BLOB...AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED ALONG AN AXIS\r\nSOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.  THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\n30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 35 KT BASED ON THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER WHERE THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nRECORDED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHEAST OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF EARL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE IN 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR\r\nWILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH DAY 3...\r\nCAUSING DISSIPATION BY DAY 4.  THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A CHANCE...\r\nHOWEVER...OF MINIMAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO THE INCREASING\r\nSHEAR DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nESTIMATE...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER...290/17 KT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT FIONA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD WITHIN A STIFF SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nOVER BERMUDA AND HURRICANE EARL TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 16.9N  59.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 18.7N  62.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 21.2N  64.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 24.4N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 27.8N  67.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 35.0N  66.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA...RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE...AND SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE FIONA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nAND THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY AND IN\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA. THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOBSERVED THUS FAR DURING THE CURRENT MISSION HAS BEEN 52 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 42-KT SURFACE WIND.\r\nTHE LOWEST PRESSURES OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 1002 MB AT 0602Z\r\nAND 1004 MB AT 0803Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT...WHICH\r\nIS LOWER THAN THE 50-KT ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12 KT USING RECON AND RADAR FIX POSITIONS.\r\nFIONA APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED ITS RATE OF CLOSURE ON EARL LOCATED\r\nTO ITS NORTHWEST. OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...THE DISTANCE BETWEEN\r\nFIONA AND EARL HAS BEEN DECREASING BY ABOUT 100 NMI EVERY 12\r\nHOURS...AND THE TWO CYCLONES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 750 NMI APART.\r\nRIDDING BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS HAS OBVIOUSLY INCREASED...WHICH HAS\r\nRESULTED IN THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF FIONA\r\nFROM MORE THAN 20 KT DOWN TO THE CURRENT 12 KT IN THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS. THE POSSIBLE CAUSE OF THE RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF FIONA\r\nIS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOWS FROM BOTH CYCLONES CONVERGING TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF FIONA. THIS RIDGING MAY ALLOW KEEP FIONA FROM\r\nINTERACTING WITH THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF EARL LIKE MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALL OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCLUDING NOGAPS...NOW SLOWS DOWN FIONA BY DAY\r\n3...WITH THE CYCLONE POSSIBLY GETTING TRAPPED IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. AS RESULT OF THESE NEW SCENARIO...A 96-HOUR POSITION HAS\r\nBEEN ADDED AND DISSIPATION HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL 120 HOURS. IF\r\nFIONA BECOMES A STRONGER SYSTEM THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD SURVIVE AND END UP MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP OR EVEN\r\nBECOME STATIONARY BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..EXCEPT SLOWER AT 48 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND...AND IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nSOME DRY MID-LEVEL AIR APPEARS TO BE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE NORTHERN\r\nQUADRANT OF THE FIONA...WHICH MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SOME AND BECOME A LITTLE MORE CIRCULAR IN\r\nAPPEARANCE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST WAS NUDGED UPWARD\r\nSLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS WHICH BRING FIONA UP TO A 60-KT SYSTEM BY 48\r\nHOURS...AND MUCH LOWER THAN THE GFDL MODEL WHICH MAKES FIONA AN\r\n85-KT HURRICANE AT THAT SAME TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 17.4N  60.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 18.9N  62.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 21.2N  64.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 23.5N  66.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 26.3N  67.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 29.2N  67.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 31.5N  67.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nMEASURED A PEAK 850 MB WIND OF 58 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES OF\r\n45-50 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB.  THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR\r\nTHE 8 AM INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME... THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF\r\nWEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM\r\nEARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR...ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOST ACTUALLY MAKE FIONA\r\nA HURRICANE.  BY LATE TOMORROW...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IN A FEW DAYS DUE PRIMARILY TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM\r\nEARL. THIS PATTERN CAUSES FIONA TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN 3 OR 4\r\nDAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOWER END OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW A MOTION OF ABOUT 305/15 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO DUE TO FIONA MOVING AROUND\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE\r\nGUIDANCE STARTS TO BECOME RATHER DIVERGENT AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH\r\nAPPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FIONA. IF THE\r\nSTORM WEAKENS QUICKLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET\r\nCAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF EARL. HOWEVER...IF FIONA\r\nSTAYS A MORE COHERENT VORTEX...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT\r\nTO GET TRAPPED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN THE STRONG\r\nSHEAR FORECAST AT THE END...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nFASTER TRACK SCENARIO AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS...AS THE\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN STURGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 18.8N  61.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 20.3N  63.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 22.6N  65.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 24.9N  66.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 26.9N  67.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 29.0N  67.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 31.0N  67.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF FIONA LOOKS QUITE DISHEVELED WITH\r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION POPPING OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS\r\nSHOW THAT THE SYSTEM STILL IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY. PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AND SFMR SURFACE\r\nWIND ESTIMATES OF ABOUT 50 KT INDICATE THAT FIONA REMAINS AT 50 KT.\r\nAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT FIONA IS RATHER SMALL IN\r\nHORIZONTAL EXTENT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT\r\nLESS THAN 100 NM ON AVERAGE AROUND THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS A SPEEDY 17 KT TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING ADVECTED ALONG MAINLY BY THE RIDGE\r\nTO ITS NORTHEAST WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION OF STEERING AS WELL BY THE\r\nMUCH LARGER HURRICANE EARL.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH TWO DAYS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nSOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH SOME GUIDANCE QUICKLY HAVING FIONA ABSORBED\r\nWITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF EARL AND SOME KEEPING FIONA AS A DISTINCT\r\nVORTEX AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING A FRONTAL LOW IN ABOUT FOUR TO FIVE\r\nDAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS\r\nTHE GFDN HURRICANE MODEL WHICH TAKES FIONA UNREALISTICALLY DUE\r\nWEST...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS...AS USUAL...A DIFFICULT CALL. DESPITE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINING OVER QUITE WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE\r\nINTENSITY OF FIONA. A RESEARCH MISSION BY THE NSF GULFSTREAM-V JET\r\nSHOWED UNIDIRECTIONAL 35 KT EASTERLIES ADVECTING OVER THE TOP OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. SUCH UPPER LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH THE FAST FORWARD\r\nSPEED...SHOULD LIMIT ANY INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM AND THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT FIONA WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AS IT GETS\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF EARL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nINCREASES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS BUT IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IF CURRENT\r\nTRENDS CONTINUE...IT IS EVEN POSSIBLE THAT FIONA WILL NO LONGER\r\nHAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...\r\nADVISORIES...AND FIONA...WOULD CEASE TO EXIST.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 20.2N  62.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 21.6N  64.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 23.8N  66.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 25.9N  67.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 27.4N  67.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 30.0N  66.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 33.5N  64.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION...RECONNAISSANCE DATA SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY OF FIONA.  THE AIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 58 KT AND SFMR WINDS TO 53 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41043\r\nTHIS EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED...AND A RECENT SSMIS IMAGE\r\nDEPICTED A CIRCULATION THAT APPEARED ELONGATED FROM SOUTHEAST TO\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF FIONA APPEARS QUITE\r\nHOSTILE...WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS AT THE LOWER\r\nEND OF THE GUIDANCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL\r\nDEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH IN THE STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF HURRICANE EARL. THIS SOLUTION IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DISSIPATION OF FIONA\r\nCOULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN BELOW.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT FIONA ACCELERATED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 320/20 KT.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...FIONA IS FORECAST\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND EARL TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 21.8N  64.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 23.8N  65.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 26.2N  67.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 28.8N  67.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 31.5N  66.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 35.5N  63.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nAFTER LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF FIONA...A STRONG\r\nBURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER FOR A FEW HOURS\r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING...WHICH HAS NOW BEEN SHEARED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A\r\n02/0156Z ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATE FIONA HAS A SMALL BUT VERY\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED\r\nON A BELTON OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AT LEAST 40 KT FROM THE ASCAT PASS...AND UW-CIMSS\r\nADT ESTIMATE OF 49 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/15 BASED ON MOSTLY ON MICROWAVE\r\nFIXES AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION. THE FUTURE\r\nTRACK OF FIONA IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT FIONA WILL GROW MUCH MORE IN\r\nHORIZONTAL SIZE DUE TO THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF POWERFUL HURRICANE\r\nEARL SITUATED ABOUT 750 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING FIONA TO ROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED EAST-WEST BETWEEN 27N\r\nAND 30N LATITUDE...AND IN 36-48 HOURS MOVE UNDERNEATH A REGION OF\r\nLOW VERTICAL SHEAR BETWEEN THE STRONG NORTHERLY OUTFLOW FROM EARL\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 24 HOURS AND CAPTURE\r\nHURRICANE EARL. IF THIS PATTERN EVOLVES...FIONA WILL REMAIN A\r\nDISTINCT ENTITY AND NOT BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF\r\nEARL AS QUICKLY AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. THE\r\nHWRF AND GFDL MODELS KEEP FIONA A SEPARATE SYSTEM THROUGH 120 HOURS\r\nAND EVEN MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE IN 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN A LITTLE TO EAST OR RIGHT OF TRACK AFTER THAT. ON THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...FIONA IS EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR BERMUDA IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH FOR THAT ISLAND BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.\r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED ABOVE...FIONA MAY REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE STRONGEST\r\nNORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF\r\nEARL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF FIONA...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO STRIP AWAY ALL OF THE CONVECTION. BY 36-48 HOURS...FIONA\r\nMAY MOVE INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION OF LOW SHEAR BENEATH A\r\nSMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO DEVELOP\r\nNEAR BERMUDA. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nMORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR FIONA TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME FLUCTUATIONS DURING THAT\r\nTIME AS THE SHEAR WAXES AND WANES. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 22.6N  65.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 24.6N  66.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 27.1N  67.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 29.7N  67.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 32.4N  65.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 36.5N  62.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION OF FIONA THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD\r\nTROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF...PROBABLY DUE TO PERSISTENT NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL STAY 45 KT.\r\n \r\nFIONA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING 330/15.  AS THE\r\nCYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST BY LATE TOMORROW.  MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nCLUSTERED ON A TRACK NEAR OR WEST OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36-48\r\nHRS...THOUGH WITH SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES.  SINCE FIONA HAS SHOWN NO\r\nSIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN...AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN A WEAK SYSTEM\r\nSTEERED BY SWIFT LOW-LEVEL WINDS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY\r\nFASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A\r\nSLOWER...MORE WESTWARD TRACK WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA IS\r\nCONSIDERED UNLIKELY.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS WALKING A TIGHTROPE BETWEEN RATHER STRONG NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR TO ITS EAST AND AN AREA OF LIGHTER SHEAR FARTHER WEST.  WITH\r\nTHE RIGHTWARD SHIFT OF THE GUIDANCE THIS MORNING...THIS COULD CAUSE\r\nEVEN STRONGER SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO NEAR THE CYCLONE.  ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF FIONA...EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nGFDL WHICH HAS AN UNREALISTIC TRACK FORECAST.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL HIGHER\r\nTHAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 24.4N  65.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 26.4N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 28.9N  66.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 31.3N  65.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 33.8N  64.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 37.9N  61.4W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH FIONA DURING THE DAY. THE STORM\r\nCONTINUES THE PATTERN OBSERVED DURING THE LAST DAY OR SO OF BURSTS\r\nOF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE CENTER...THEN SHEARING AWAY. AN\r\nASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40\r\nKT. GIVEN THE WELL-DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT...45 KT\r\nSEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE INITIAL WIND SPEED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS DIFFICULT BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE FIONA HAS BEEN WITHSTANDING THE\r\nSHEAR BETTER THAN MOST TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE LATEST INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THE STORM AS QUICKLY AS EARLIER...BUT IS\r\nACTUALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THUS NO CHANGES ARE\r\nMADE TO THE LAST NHC FORECAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHEARING OUT AS IT MOVES\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nFIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE AND IS NOW MOVING 335/15.  THERE IS\r\nNO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING AROUND A\r\nSUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  THE STORM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...\r\nTHEN NORTHEAST AS IT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. THE\r\nMODELS ARE GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...BUT SINCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES SPEEDING ALONG...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY\r\nON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK. THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT FIONA WILL BE CLOSE\r\nTO BERMUDA IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 25.6N  66.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 27.5N  66.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 29.7N  66.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 31.7N  65.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 33.7N  64.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 38.0N  61.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nFIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT...BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 3.0 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY.  THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS.  TYPICALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DUE\r\nTO THE ANTICIPATED SHEAR. HOWEVER...FIONA HAS BEEN WITHSTANDING THE\r\nSHEAR DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SO ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFIONA IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355/14 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nHURRICANE EARL TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF FIONA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN AROUND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 26.9N  66.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 28.7N  66.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 30.8N  65.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 32.7N  64.8W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 34.8N  63.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 39.5N  60.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nFIONA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDISPLACED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 3-HR\r\nAVERAGE ADT OF T3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. FIONA IS FORECAST\r\nTO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TODAY AND THEN TURNS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY...WITH THE CENTER OF FIONA EXPECTED TO\r\nPASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL SUITE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 28.1N  66.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 29.8N  66.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 32.0N  65.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 34.2N  63.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 36.4N  62.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 41.5N  58.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 39 KT AND\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF\r\nABOUT 40 KT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME\r\nRATHER THIN NEAR THE CENTER...WITH THE CIRCULATION OF FIONA ALSO\r\nTAKING ON AN ELONGATED APPEARANCE. SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY\r\nGIVEN THE PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SHEAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS ON GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE SYSTEM\r\nDRAMATICALLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED\r\nAFTER THAT TIME. GIVEN THE LATEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION...IT WOULD\r\nNOT BE A SURPRISE IF FIONA DECAYED FASTER THAN THE FORECAST BELOW.\r\n\r\nFIONA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND IS MOVING 020/11 KT. THE\r\nMODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED NOW ON BRINGING THE CENTER NEAR BERMUDA\r\nIN ABOUT 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME ACCELERATION IS ANTICIPATED AS\r\nTHE STORM ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...AND STILL MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 29.0N  66.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 30.6N  65.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 32.7N  64.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 35.2N  63.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 38.1N  61.2W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FIONA IS WEAKENING.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS BECOMING DISTORTED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS...AND ONLY A\r\nMEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTION REMAINS.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE\r\nDROPPING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.  FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR.  DISSIPATION IS\r\nPROBABLE BY SUNDAY...IF NOT SOONER...OR THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS TONIGHT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT\r\nREDEVELOP SOON.  THE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nOCCURRING IN BERMUDA APPEAR TO BE DROPPING.\r\n \r\nFIONA HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING\r\n030/12. A SMALL SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE HAS OCCURRED...WITH ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS NOW SHOWING THE CENTER PASSING JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA. \r\nTHIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO FIONA BECOMING A RATHER SHALLOW SYSTEM\r\nTHAT IS BEING PRIMARILY STEERED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND EARL. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL PASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE WEAK SYSTEM SHOULD INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nIT MOVES AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND DECAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 30.0N  65.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 31.6N  64.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 33.6N  63.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 36.4N  61.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 39.6N  59.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fiona","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n\r\nFIONA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND AN ELONGATED AND\r\nPOORLY-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE THAT HAD RISEN\r\nTO 1013 MB.  ALSO...ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM LACKS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  IN FACT...ALL THAT\r\nREMAINS OF THE CONVECTION IS A VERY SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS LOCATED\r\nABOUT 50 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION IN\r\n48 HOURS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 20-30 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT.  DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT DO\r\nNOT ALREADY SHOW FIONA AS AN OPEN WAVE ALSO SUPPORT SUPPORT\r\nDISSIPATION WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND PASS JUST TO THE\r\nEAST OF BERMUDA ON SATURDAY.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION...AS A\r\nSHALLOW LOW...IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON FIONA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...\r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 31.4N  64.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 33.0N  64.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 35.2N  62.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 38.2N  60.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nTHE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALMOST HALF\r\nWAY AROUND THE VORTEX.  CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  AN ASCAT PASS AT 1126Z ALONG THE EDGE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE INDICATED WINDS OF 25-30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT AS IT IS BEING\r\nSTEERED PRIMARILY BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTH. AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC...THE RIDGE WEAKENS SOME DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE CYCLONE AND A SLIGHT\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD\r\nCORRESPONDINGLY ACCELERATE. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY\r\nDISTINGUISHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE PRONOUNCED MONSOON TROUGH IN\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS...THE UKMET AND CANADIAN...AND THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF HURRICANE MODELS AND IS CLOSEST TO THE BAM-MEDIUM MODEL. THE\r\n12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER TRACK PREDICTION\r\nSINCE THEY WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A MORE REALISTIC HANDLE ON THE\r\nINITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS USUAL...IS QUITE UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING OVER VERY WARM WATERS...THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...ESPECIALLY THE MID-LEVEL CONTRIBUTION...IS MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG. ADDITIONALLY...A LARGE OUTBREAK OF THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS\r\nSITUATED JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH MAY INHIBIT\r\nSOME OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM. THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY ONLY CALLS FOR GRADUALLY SPINNING THE CYCLONE UP AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE FOUR-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING\r\nTHAT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nDO NOT EVEN ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE CYCLONE EXISTS NOW OR IN THE NEAR\r\nFUTURE. HOWEVER...A QUICK DECAY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO\r\nBE LIKELY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 12.4N  35.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 12.6N  37.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.0N  39.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 13.5N  41.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.0N  42.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N  45.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N  49.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N  53.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH AN INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45\r\nKT AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WITH AMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CSU\r\nINDICATING 50 KT AND 37 KT. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM APPEARS BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT...MAKING GASTON THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM\r\nOF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST AND NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL STORM...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...\r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT NEAR GASTON FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION OF\r\nGASTON...WITH THE NORMALLY CONSERVATIVE LGEM SHOWING THIS SYSTEM\r\nBECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS LOWER THAN\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nAN AMSR-E PASS AT 1613 UTC HELPED WITH THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER THAN BEFORE AT 280/13. A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GASTON IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSES BY...WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOW\r\nDOWN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REBUILD IN A FEW DAYS AND STEER THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM AT AN INCREASINGLY FASTER RATE TO THE WEST OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nNOW THAT MOST OF THEM ARE INITIALIZING THE STORM...BUT THERE ARE\r\nSTILL SOME SIGNIFICANT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nFASTER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS IT SEEMS LIKE\r\nTHE MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING TOO MUCH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE\r\nITCZ AND GASTON. THE NEW FORECAST DOES END UP CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE BY DAY 5...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE GFS/UKMET/HWRF/GFDL\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 12.9N  37.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.1N  38.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.4N  39.9W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 13.7N  41.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 14.0N  42.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 15.0N  45.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 15.5N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N  54.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 01 2010\r\n \r\nGASTON HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION THAT\r\nWRAPS FROM THE WESTERN TO NORTHERN SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION...AND\r\nDVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE\r\nOBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS CURRENTLY T3.3/51 KT...BUT\r\nA RECENT 0013 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 25-30 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN INCREASED A BIT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR SURROUNDING\r\nTHE CYCLONE...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THIS\r\nCOULD PREVENT THE DRY AIR FROM HAVING A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT.\r\nSTILL...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nGIVEN THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS.\r\nOVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...THE GFDL AND HWRF ONLY STRENGTHEN GASTON TO\r\nA STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nMAKES IT A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...AND THE LGEM BRINGS IT TO\r\nCATEGORY 4 INTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD BE MOST IDEAL AND THEN VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS THEREAFTER WHEN EASTERLY SHEAR COULD INCREASE A BIT.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS BEGUN TO SLOW\r\nDOWN...POSSIBLY DUE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280/10 KT.  WITH THE BREAK\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...GASTON IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nSLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT IS\r\nSTILL ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BY DAYS\r\n4 AND 5...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER TO THE WEST.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 13.4N  37.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.5N  38.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N  39.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 13.8N  40.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.0N  42.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 14.5N  45.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 15.0N  49.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 16.0N  54.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE\r\nIN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS CONFINED\r\nTO A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE BEEN WARMING SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.  CONDITIONS GENERALLY APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS AS GASTON REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nWARM WATERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GASTON IS\r\nPARTIALLY EMBEDDED IN A DRY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS WHICH COULD\r\nPROVE TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...LYING IN\r\nBETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n  \r\nGASTON CONTINUES TO DECELERATE AS IT FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A DEEP\r\nLAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n280/8. GASTON IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY\r\n48-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF GASTON AND THAT SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM WESTWARD OR\r\nEVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 13.5N  38.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.6N  39.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 13.8N  40.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.0N  41.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 14.2N  42.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 14.6N  45.9W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N  50.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N  55.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gaston","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH GASTON HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AND IS LIMITED TO\r\nA FRAGMENTED BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE PIRATA PREDICTION AND RESEARCH BUOY 13008 LOCATED\r\nABOUT 80 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ONLY AVERAGING\r\nAROUND 17 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...GASTON IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE UPPER WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nDOMINATING THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD ONLY PERMIT SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT IS\r\nCURRENTLY ENROUTE ON A PREDICT RESEARCH MISSION TO SAMPLE THE\r\nSURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nGASTON IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AROUND 290/6...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH\r\nAMPLITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 38W AND TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED\r\nSLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE WEAK EASTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.  AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nTHROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE GASTON TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE.  THE NHC OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BASED\r\nON A COMPROMISE OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 14.0N  38.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 14.1N  39.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.3N  40.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N  42.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 14.7N  43.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 15.0N  46.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 15.5N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 16.0N  56.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gaston","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092010\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 02 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DROPSONDES FROM THE NATIONAL\r\nSCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT GASTON HAS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.  THE SYSTEM CONSISTS\r\nOF A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY\r\nOCCURRING ONLY IN A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS PREDICT SOME BUILDING OF RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nINDICATES A CONTINUED GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATED HERE...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nGASTON COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO THAT IS BEING SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 13.5N  39.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.5N  40.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 13.7N  41.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 14.0N  43.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 14.2N  44.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 14.5N  48.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 15.0N  52.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 15.5N  57.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO WARRANT IT BEING\r\nDECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIS EVENING.  CURVED BANDS ARE\r\nREADILY APPARENT ON THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR SITE...AND A 2340 UTC\r\nWINDSAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A DISTINCT CURVED BAND SIGNATURE. SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE BOTH T1.5...25 KT...AND THIS WILL\r\nBE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL DUE TO VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT\r\nWIND SHEAR.  ALL OF THE MODELS EXCEPT THE HWRF SHOW STRENGTHENING\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 005/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW AND INCREASE\r\nITS FORWARD SPEED AS MIDDLE-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THE\r\nLEFT TURN OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 20.7N  95.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 21.6N  95.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 23.3N  96.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.7N  98.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  99.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 30.0N 100.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n400 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND ASCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES.\r\nASCAT...WHICH HAS A WELL DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS...REVEALED SEVERAL\r\n30-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND\r\nNOAA BUOY 42055 HAS REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN\r\n30 AND 35 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE DATA THE\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE EIGHTH OF THE\r\n2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE\r\nWARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT UNTIL LANDFALL. AS\r\nA RESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/7. HERMINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE TRACK MODELS\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD WHICH HAS REQUIRED A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST. THERE ARE ALSO NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF HERMINE...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A FASTER\r\nMOTION THAN THE GFDL/HWRF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST FORWARD MOTION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE\r\nOF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 21.6N  95.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 22.9N  95.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 24.9N  97.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 26.8N  98.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 28.8N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 33.2N  99.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n1000 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010\r\n \r\nHERMINE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME CONCENTRATED\r\nNEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS TODAY AND TONIGHT\r\nAND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD ACCORDINGLY.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE\r\nHERMINE IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE\r\nASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  HERMINE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE LIMITATIONS IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY\r\nCHANGE...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS\r\nCOAST TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE POSSIBILITY THAT HERMINE COULD STRENGTHEN\r\nMORE THAN EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 23.4N  95.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 24.9N  96.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 27.0N  98.3W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.1N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 31.4N 100.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 36.0N  99.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n400 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010\r\n \r\nLATEST AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMOTION OF HERMINE IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES...AROUND 330/13.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER\r\nTHOUGHT.  HERMINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST AND SHOWS THE CENTER\r\nCROSSING THE COAST EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND MAXIMUM\r\nSFMR-OBSERVED WINDS OF 47 KT OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nSTORM...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\nBROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY DOES SHOW AN EYE...BUT THE EYEWALL\r\nIS NOT YET WELL DEFINED.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nENVIRONMENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nTRACK FORECAST...THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME LEFT FOR HERMINE TO\r\nINTENSIFY BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE.  HOWEVER THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD STILL APPROACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE EXTREME\r\nNORTHEAST MEXICO AND EXTREME SOUTH TEXAS COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 24.5N  97.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 26.2N  98.3W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 28.5N  99.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 30.7N 100.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 33.0N 100.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 38.0N  98.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n1000 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HERMINE MADE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF NORTHEAST MEXICO\r\nAROUND 0130 UTC. PRIOR TO LANDFALL...SATELLITE DATA SHOWED THE\r\nFORMATION OF A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION\r\nALSO LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 2333\r\nUTC SHOWED A PEAK 850-MB WIND OF 61 KT...WITH SFMR VALUES UP TO 56\r\nKT. DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR EARLIER INDICATED PEAK\r\nWINDS OF ABOUT 75 KT AT 4000 FT. THESE DATA SUGGEST THE LANDFALL\r\nINTENSITY WAS ABOUT 55 KT. SINCE LANDFALL...THE VELOCITIES FROM THE\r\nBROWNSVILLE RADAR HAVE DECREASED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT. AS HERMINE WEAKENS...THE BIGGEST THREAT WILL \r\nSHIFT TO FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO\r\nTEXAS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HERMINE SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. THEREAFTER...THE REMNANTS OF HERMINE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE RIDES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT\r\nRIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 25.5N  97.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 27.1N  98.6W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  99.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 32.1N 100.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 34.7N  99.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 39.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n400 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HERMINE MOVED THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLIER\r\nTHIS MORNING AND PRODUCED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND\r\nGUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE AT SEVERAL REPORTING SITES.  THE\r\nHIGHEST WINDS REPORTED IN THE INTENSE CONVECTIVE BAND NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER WERE 48 KT WITH A GUST TO 63 KT...OCCURRING AT VALLEY\r\nINTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN HARLINGEN TEXAS AROUND 0600 UTC.  SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME...THE BAND OF CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  THE GUST FACTOR IS BEING HELD A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN NORMAL BASED ON THE EARLIER OBSERVATIONS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nDECAY OVER LAND AND SHOWS HERMINE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION LATER\r\nTODAY.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A WARM FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING JUST A LITTLE EAST OF...AND FASTER THAN...\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AT 340/15.  THE FORECAST REASONING HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS.  HERMINE WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA IN\r\n48 HOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE RECENT MOTION OF\r\nTHE STORM BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nAS HERMINE WEAKENS TODAY...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nTHAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 27.0N  98.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 28.7N  99.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 30.9N 100.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 33.3N 100.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 36.1N  99.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010\r\n \r\nHERMINE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS BUT IS\r\nMAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED PRESENTATION ON RADAR IMAGERY.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED\r\nAS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AS HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND...AND ALL\r\nCOASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\nSURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT HERMINE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nSLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...350/15.  A GENERAL\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING HERMINE...OR ITS REMNANTS...WELL INLAND\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND\r\nPOSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nTHAT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 28.3N  98.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 30.1N  99.2W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 32.3N  99.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 34.9N  99.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 37.6N  97.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n400 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nHERMINE IS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...HERMINE REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  DESPITE\r\nBEING WELL INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN INNER\r\nCORE AND RAINBANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.\r\nHERMINE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN A FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/16...AND THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nTHAT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PART\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 29.9N  98.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 31.5N  99.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  99.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 36.6N  98.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 39.0N  95.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hermine","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL102010\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA INDICATE THE\r\nINTENSITY OF HERMINE HAS DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STATUS AS OF\r\n00Z. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LARGE PATCH OF 50-60 KT DOPPLER\r\nVELOCITIES BETWEEN 7000-9000 FT LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF HERMINE\r\nJUST NORTH OF BRADY TEXAS. THEREFORE...A HIGHER GUST DIFFERENTIAL\r\nTHAN USUAL IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/14. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS. HERMINE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO\r\nSOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE GULF STATES. BY 48 HOURS...THE\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A WARM\r\nFRONTAL ZONE AND ALSO BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nRIDGE. AT THIS TIME...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MID-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COULD INFUSE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC ENERGY INTO\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT WOULD AMPLIFY IT AFTER THE 48-HOUR\r\nTIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nDUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-45 KT\r\nWILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IN SOME OF THE\r\nSTRONGER CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ISOLATED\r\nTORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND\r\nNORTHEASTERN TEXAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA\r\nTONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AND SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF\r\nKANSAS AND MISSOURI BY THURSDAY. THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS IN THESE AREAS. \r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON HERMINE.  FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION \r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35 KWNH...\r\nBEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 31.6N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 33.5N  99.7W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 35.8N  99.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 38.0N  97.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 39.7N  94.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 08 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LOW OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED\r\nLONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. A\r\n1042 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS OF 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE SET TO THAT VALUE.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS PRESENT\r\nOVER IGOR...BUT IS FORECAST TO LIGHTEN IN A DAY OR SO.  ALL\r\nRELIABLE MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION INTO A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL ONLY SHOW RELATIVELY SLOW STRENGTHENING...BELOW THE GUIDANCE\r\nINITIALLY...BUT THE FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AT DAY\r\n5.  IF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE PATTERN SEEN IN MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS VERIFY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD MOTION AT AN INCREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...A TROUGH OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE...FORCING THE STORM TO MOVE\r\nMORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SHORT-TERM\r\nUNCERTAINTY ON HOW IGOR WILL INTERACT WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE\r\nSYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 13.7N  23.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 13.7N  24.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 13.8N  26.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 14.0N  29.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 14.5N  31.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N  36.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 16.8N  41.2W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N  46.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010\r\n \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...A SYMPTOM OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  HIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT\r\nDATA EARLIER INDICATED PEAK WINDS OF 35-40 KT...AND WITH SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS INCREASING...THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 40 KT.  \r\n \r\nAN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/5.  THE\r\nMOTION HAS SLOWED SIGNIFICANTLY...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA APPROACHING THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE SHOWING A DIFFERENT SCENARIO IN THE SHORT-TERM AND HAVE\r\nTRENDED TOWARD THE 00/12Z ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  AS THE SMALL LOW TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF IGOR MOVES WESTWARD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN SLIGHTLY...WHICH ALLOWS IGOR TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR EVEN NORTHWEST BRIEFLY.  AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD TURN IGOR WESTWARD AGAIN.   THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO\r\nSYSTEMS AND THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE MODELS...BUT STILL LIES\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM...SEEMS TRICKY\r\nWITH IGOR ONLY ABOUT 210 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. \r\nTHERE CERTAINLY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT OF INTERACTION THAT\r\nCOULD SLOW THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL ONLY SHOW SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT-TERM...GENERALLY A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE MODELS.  IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THERE IS\r\nPLENTY OF WARM WATER AND LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF\r\nIGOR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nHURRICANE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND STILL MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE AT\r\nTHE END.  HOWEVER...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST SHIFTING NORTHWARD... I\r\nAM HESITANT TO FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 13.9N  23.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 14.0N  24.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 14.7N  26.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 15.5N  29.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 16.3N  32.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N  37.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 17.5N  42.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 18.5N  47.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 08 2010\r\n \r\n\r\nIGOR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nMASS IS DISPLACED WEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...\r\nAND THERE IS A SHARP EASTERN EDGE TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. IN\r\nADDITION...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nRECENTLY WARMING. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 2.5 FROM\r\nTAFB...AND THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS CLOSE TO 3.0. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REPRESENTS A BLEND OF CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND IS UNCHANGED AT 40 KT. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE ONGOING INTERACTION OF\r\nIGOR WITH ANOTHER LOW LOCATED 150 N MI TO ITS NORTH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nIMPEDE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CONSOLIDATION OF IGOR WITH THIS\r\nFEATURE...AS WELL AS A REDUCTION IN THE EASTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A STEADY STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM/SHIPS\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED. IN THE SHORT-TERM...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR\r\nINTERACTING WITH AND ABSORBING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND TEMPORARILY IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION. FROM 24-96 HOURS...A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CAUSE IGOR TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. AFTER 96 HOURS...IGOR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...SIMILAR TO BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH\r\nAS THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...BUT HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD IN LINE WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAT LATER FORECAST PERIODS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 13.8N  24.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 14.3N  25.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 15.1N  27.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 15.8N  30.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 16.4N  33.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N  39.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 18.0N  43.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N  47.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AND\r\nCONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY SHEARED.  NEITHER SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES NOR ASCAT MEASUREMENTS SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35 KNOTS AND THIS\r\nESTIMATE IS GENEROUS. IGOR COULD WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY BUT\r\nGIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER\r\nOCEAN...A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COULD BEGIN IN 24 HOUR OR SO.  IGOR\r\nIS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS STILL\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS SUGGESTING THAT IGOR HAS\r\nBEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nLATER TODAY. THE STEERING PATTERN OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BEEN QUITE\r\nPERSISTENT AND CONSISTS OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPART OF THE BASIN AND A BROAD TROUGH OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. THIS\r\nSTEERING PATTERN WHICH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nCONTINUE...WOULD FAVOR A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND THEN A TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 13.8N  24.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 14.0N  25.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 15.0N  28.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N  31.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 16.5N  34.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 17.0N  40.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 18.0N  44.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N  49.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 09 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION FORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGOR AROUND 1030\r\nUTC...AND HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS WEST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR\r\n...AS SHOWN BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. ALTHOUGH AN ASCAT PASS AROUND\r\n0000 UTC ONLY SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...THE WINDS ARE\r\nASSUMED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER NOW DUE TO THE INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION. THEREFORE...IGOR WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 35 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS...COMBINED\r\nWITH WARM WATERS AND A RELATIVELY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY\r\nMODELS BRING IGOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND SHOW\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIGOR HAS BEEN GENERALLY MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND THE 6-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/5.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LAST FEW FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NOW THAT IGOR APPEARS TO HAVE ABSORBED THE\r\nWEAK LOW THAT HAD BEEN IN ITS VICINITY...A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR NEARING A\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH IN THE SHORT-TERM\r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AT\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS SUGGESTED BY THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 14.7N  24.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 15.0N  26.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 15.8N  29.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 16.4N  32.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 16.7N  35.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 17.3N  40.4W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 18.5N  44.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N  48.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Igor","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY\r\nHAS ERODED AND NOW TAKES THE SHAPE OF A CURVED BAND OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SITUATED ABOUT 90 N MI WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO ABOUT 20-25 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE CONVECTION IS WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER AND BECAUSE EARLIER ASCAT DATA DID NOT SHOW WINDS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE...IGOR IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH IGOR HAS WEAKENED TODAY...\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A RELATIVELY WARM\r\nOCEAN AND MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO STRENGTHEN.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING THROUGH AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER SSTS IN A COUPLE DAYS...SO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nMORE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL MAKES\r\nIGOR A HURRICANE IN 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN RACING NORTHWESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE LAST FEW HOURS...AND IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR BECOMES\r\nTHE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IGOR\r\nAPPROACHING A LARGE BUT RATHER FLAT TROUGH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH\r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 16.0N  26.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.7N  27.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.3N  30.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 17.5N  33.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N  36.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 18.4N  41.9W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 19.5N  46.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 21.0N  49.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Igor","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF IGOR DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -90 C. THIS BURSTING PATTERN\r\nSUGGESTS THAT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES\r\nSHOWING ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE AT 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES ARE\r\nCLOSE TO THIS VALUE. A STRICT INTERPRETATION OF THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT IGOR MAY BE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nAGAIN.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE OF THE CURRENT\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS HAS\r\nMADE DISCERNING AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE MORE DIFFICULT THAN\r\nNORMAL.  GIVEN THE DISCONTINUITY IN CENTER FIXES...A LONGER-TERM\r\nMOTION WAS COMPUTED AND YIELDS AN UNCERTAIN 295/11. GLOBAL\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL BE\r\nSTEERED ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED BY THE\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED THIS CYCLE IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WAY MODELS HANDLE THE EVOLUTION\r\nOF THIS WEAKNESS.  THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER AND A NOTABLE\r\nSOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE GUIDANCE HAS PROMPTED A FAIRLY\r\nSIGNIFICANT THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION...\r\nTHOUGH THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nA CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SLOW OR POSSIBLY\r\nEVEN HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nSHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR...A FAIRLY\r\nMOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RELATIVELY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAHEAD OF IGOR FROM 24-72 HOURS.  THESE INGREDIENTS SHOULD FAVOR A\r\nSTEADIER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES POSSIBLE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC WHILE SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LESS SHEAR. THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER EARLY IN THE PERIOD\r\nGIVEN CURRENT TRENDS BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO BOTH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nEXACT INTENSITY...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR\r\nWILL GROW IN SIZE...POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LARGE-SIZED HURRICANE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 15.4N  28.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 15.9N  30.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 16.3N  33.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N  36.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.7N  39.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 17.5N  44.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 18.5N  48.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N  50.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/MUSHER\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Igor","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR IS STILL STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED TO THE EAST\r\nOF A STRONG AND CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE MASS AS OBSERVED IN BOTH\r\nMICROWAVE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY. AS WE SPEAK...FIRST\r\nMETEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGE CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED BUT\r\nBETTER DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS BUT IT WILL\r\nNOT TAKE MUCH FOR IGOR TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND IN\r\nFACT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nESCAPING FROM THE MONSOON-TYPE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS\r\nBECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS\r\nSHEAR AND WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST IGOR TO BE A LARGE\r\nHURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE IT WAS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW\r\nVARIOUS LOW-LEVEL CENTERS THAT WERE ROTATING AROUND A LARGER GYRE\r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT\r\n11 TO 12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD\r\nAND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...IGOR SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE. TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nOVERALL IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TAKING IGOR WESTWARD. HOWEVER...A\r\nCOUPLE OF MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF\r\nMODELS WHICH FORECAST A MODERATE BUT A MORE REALISTIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 16.0N  29.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 16.0N  31.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 16.3N  34.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.5N  37.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N  40.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 18.0N  49.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N  53.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF ABATING AND\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE UPGRADE TO STORM STATUS IS BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 47-KT\r\nUW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE\r\nSTILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS ROTATING\r\nAROUND THE CENTER OF A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. HOWEVER...THE MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE BASICALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS OR SO\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY DAY 5...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST\r\nTO BE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 50W-60W LONGITUDE.\r\nTHIS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW AND CAUSE IGOR TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND ALSO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nCURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS...ALONG WITH WATER\r\nVAPOR WINDS...INDICATE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS IGOR HAS DECREASED\r\nFROM 20 KT DOWN TO 10 KT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS DECEASING\r\nSHEAR TENDENCY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS IGOR MOVES OVER GRADUALLY INCREASING SSTS...ESPECIALLY\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS. THE RESULT SHOULD BE STEADY INTENSIFICATION WITH\r\nIGOR POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE STATUS ON SUNDAY AND MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS BY DAY 5...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHEN IGOR WILL\r\nDEVELOP A CONSOLIDATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nGUIDANCE THEREAFTER.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 16.4N  31.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 16.6N  33.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.8N  36.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N  39.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.1N  41.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 17.3N  46.2W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 18.2N  50.3W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N  53.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING IGOR FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL DAYS HAS FINALLY STARTED TO ABATE AND CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS\r\nNOW BECOME PRONOUNCED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...SOME MID-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...\r\nWHICH HAS RESULTED IN A VERY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED AT LEAST 30 NMI TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB...55\r\nKT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT VALUES OF 49 KT AND\r\nAMSU ESTIMATES OF 53 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nCONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT...WHICH WILL BE TOO LOW IF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT 96\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE\r\nAND STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH. BY DAY 5...A\r\nBROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nAND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN AND ALLOW\r\nWHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AT THAT TIME TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nMORE TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5.  IN PARTICULAR...THE GFDL AND ECMWF SHOW LESS OF A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN THAT MIGHT BE RELATED TO A FLATTER LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nIN THE LATEST GLOBAL RUNS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES\r\nLITTLE CHANGE AND IS AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...IN\r\nCONJUNCTION WITH SSTS INCREASING TO 29C BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY INTENSIFICATION. IGOR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REACH HURRICANE STATUS BY SUNDAY AND MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY\r\nDAYS 4 OR 5. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS...LGEM...\r\nHWRF...AND GFDL MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 16.7N  33.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 16.8N  35.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 17.1N  38.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N  41.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 17.3N  43.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 17.7N  47.8W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z 18.7N  51.6W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N  55.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 10 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IGOR IS MAINTAINING A\r\nBURSTING PATTERN...CHARACTERISTIC OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nTHE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES NEAR THE NORTHEAST SIDE\r\nOF A LARGE AND CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE MASS IN THIS IMAGERY...BUT\r\nSEVERAL EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LYING UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION.  AN EXPANDING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO\r\nTHE EAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 3.0/45 KT AND 3.5/55\r\nKT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE\r\nIS 3.3.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED CONSERVATIVELY TO 45\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/18 IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND\r\nREPRESENTS A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE...GIVEN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THE FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED. DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IGOR MOVING ON A WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  DURING THIS\r\nPERIOD...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR SHOULD\r\nSLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THEN TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK LIES NEAR\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS A BIT NORTH OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD THIS\r\nCYCLE.\r\n \r\nUW-CIMSS ANALYSES STILL INDICATE AROUND 15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER IGOR...A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\nQUICK REDUCTION TO THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER GRADUALLY WARMER WATERS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD\r\nTO A STEADIER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE PRESENTS A DILEMMA LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...HOWEVER.  THE STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES POSSIBLE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATED TO THE LONGWAVE TROUGH FORECAST OVER\r\nTHE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AS DO A FEW OF THE GLOBAL DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE HWRF AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THE LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND A STRONGER IGOR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY REDUCED LATE IN THE PERIOD IN DEFERENCE TO\r\nTHE STATISTICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 17.1N  34.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.2N  37.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.4N  40.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.5N  42.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 17.6N  45.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 18.0N  49.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 19.0N  53.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 20.5N  56.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010\r\n \r\n \r\nIGOR IS STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...THERE WAS A PERIOD FOR ABOUT TWO\r\nHOURS...BETWEEN 04 AND 06 UTC THAT A SMALL EYE-LIKE FEATURE BECAME\r\nAPPARENT ON SATELLITE. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...SUCH FEATURE HAS\r\nBECOME INTERMITTENT...OTHERWISE I COULD HAVE DECLARED IGOR A\r\nHURRICANE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED...THE\r\nOVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED A LITTLE AND NOW CONSISTS OF TWO\r\nWELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS LOCATED PRIMARILY TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. BASED ON A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH\r\nARE 4.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TREND...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ALL OF THE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR IGOR TO\r\nINTENSIFY...AND THE FORECAST CALLS FOR IGOR TO BE AN INTENSE\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT IGOR COULD\r\nALSO BECOME LARGE.   \r\n \r\nIGOR IS MOVING TOWARD TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS IS BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND CONTINUITY.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO PERSIST. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. BY THEN...IGOR\r\nWILL BE REACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nWHERE THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAKER...AND BEGIN TO APPROACH A\r\nBROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE\r\nIGOR TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND\r\nBIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. \r\n  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 17.1N  37.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.1N  40.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N  43.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 17.4N  46.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 17.5N  48.5W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.5N  52.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 18.5N  55.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N  59.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 11 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW A BANDING EYE PRESENTATION WITH IGOR.  WHILE THE\r\nWEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION HAS LED TO A DECREASE IN DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS...IT IS PREMATURE TO LOWER THE INTENSITY AND 60 KT WILL BE\r\nKEPT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH EASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS PRESENT...IT HAS DECREASED SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AND IS FORECAST TO FURTHER DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  AROUND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER \r\nWATERS WARMER THAN 28C.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTERESTINGLY...\r\nWHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS MAKE IGOR A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW SOME WEAKENING WITH IGOR BEFORE\r\nRESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  AT THIS POINT...I AM\r\nINCLINED TO LEAN ON THE STATISTICAL MODELS AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD GIVEN THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...AND HAVE RAISED\r\nTHE WINDS FOR THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT AND\r\nIS MOVING 275/17.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING REMAINS\r\nENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.  IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE WESTERN PART OF THE\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN A BIT MORE LATITUDE AND SLOW DOWN.  WHILE\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE ARE\r\nSOME LARGE SPEED DIFFERENCES...AS THE ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDES OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...ATTEMPTING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL TENDENCIES OF BEING\r\nTOO SLOW AND POLEWARD WITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 17.4N  39.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.5N  42.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N  44.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N  47.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.7N  49.7W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N  53.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N  56.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  59.5W   110 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Igor","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR IS VERY CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW\r\nTHAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AROUND THE CENTER AND HAVE RECENTLY\r\nSUGGESTED THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUES SUGGEST IGOR IS A HURRICANE...IT IS\r\nPREFERABLE TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE CONVECTION STICKS AROUND AND TO\r\nGET MICROWAVE CONFIRMATION OF THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE.    \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS NEAR THE CYCLONE SEEM RATHER\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  GLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER\r\nANTICYCLONE JUST TO THE NORTH OF IGOR...A RATHER FAVORABLE PATTERN\r\nFOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR HURRICANE.  SSTS AND OCEAN HEAT\r\nCONTENT ALSO INCREASE STEADILY ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE MOST\r\nOBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS PERHAPS A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR THAT HAS\r\nWORKED ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nHOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO\r\nTHE INNER CORE WITHOUT SOME SHEAR...AND THAT DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT PEAKS BELOW THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.  IT IS OF\r\nNOTE THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE\r\nAND POWERFUL HURRICANE...AND THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nINCREASED.\r\n\r\nIGOR REMAINS ON TRACK AND IS MOVING 275/16.  THE SYNOPTIC STEERING\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS WELL DEFINED WITH A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDING THE CYCLONE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE IS CRITICAL TO WHEN\r\nIGOR BEGINS A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE MODELS THAT MOVE THE\r\nSTORM FASTER TO THE WEST INITIALLY...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS OR\r\nUKMET...ALLOW IGOR TO GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS BEFORE MAKING A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.\r\nHOWEVER...ANOTHER GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS/GFDL\r\nSOLUTIONS...SHOW THAT TURN OCCURRING IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.   THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND I HAVE\r\nELECTED NOT TO CHANGE THE FORECAST MUCH...WHICH REMAINS TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 17.4N  41.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N  43.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.6N  46.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.7N  48.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 17.9N  51.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 18.8N  54.8W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.3N  57.7W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 22.0N  60.5W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A TIGHTLY-COILED BAND...WITH CLOUD\r\nTOP TEMPERATURES TO -85C...WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO\r\nA DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  AN EYE FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nBRIEFLY INTERMITTENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A\r\nNUMBER OF MICROWAVE PASSES SEVERAL HOURS AGO REVEALED A DISTINCT\r\nCONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nAT 0000 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...AND\r\n3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 4.3.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT THIS ADVISORY...MAKING IGOR THE FOURTH\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE UNDERLYING\r\nOCEAN ONLY GETS WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF IGOR...PEAKING\r\nAROUND 29C IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THAT...COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...AND NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES IGOR A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE BY 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...WHILE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nMAY OCCUR...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AND\r\nBE A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nIGOR HAS MAINTAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME MOTION...275/15...THOUGH\r\nPERHAPS A TAD SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  SUBTROPICAL RIDGING NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS...CARRYING IGOR ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.  BEYOND THIS\r\nTIME...DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW IGOR SLOWING AND TURNING WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES INTO A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS WAS THE CASE IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nMODEL CYCLE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF THE RIGHTMOST OF MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS AND THE UKMET/NOGAPS THE LEFTMOST.  THESE DIFFERENCES\r\nSEEM TO HINGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WITH THE FORMER MODELS FORECASTING A WEAKER RIDGE DISPLACED\r\nTO THE EAST WHILE LATTER INDICATE A MORE ROBUST RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFARTHER WEST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO\r\nTHE RIGHT...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE... BUT IS NOT AS\r\nFAR RIGHT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 17.7N  42.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.8N  44.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 17.9N  47.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 18.1N  49.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 18.4N  51.9W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N  55.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  58.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  61.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IGOR HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE\r\nTHIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC...THE CURVED BAND OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nIS NOW MORE SYMMETRIC. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nTO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS IGOR MOVES OVER STEADILY INCREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS BRING IGOR TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.\r\nBEYOND A FEW DAYS...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH SOME SHOWING LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH AND OTHERS GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSER TO THE LGEM\r\nAND SHIPS MODELS...PREDICTING IGOR TO MAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS.\r\n \r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD ABOUT THE SAME SPEED AS ESTIMATED\r\nEARLIER...275/16. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IGOR ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\n2 TO 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN\r\nSHOWING THE RIDGE ERODE DUE TO PERSISTENT BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW IGOR TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 17.7N  44.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 17.9N  46.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 18.1N  49.1W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 18.3N  51.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 18.7N  53.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 20.2N  56.3W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 22.5N  59.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N  62.0W   115 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IGOR IS GOING THROUGH\r\nA PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A\r\nCLEARING EYE AND INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN SSMIS OVERPASS REVEAL AN\r\nINTENSE FULLY-DEVELOPED INNER RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW\r\nHAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CYCLONE WHERE THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RESIDE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...A\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT OF 107 KT...AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 86 KT...THAT\r\nINCLUDES A BLEND OF AMSU MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE RI TREND...AND INDICATES STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A CATEGORY\r\nFOUR HURRICANE BY DAY 2.  THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON\r\nCONSENSUS BUT IS HEDGED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF IGOR. THE LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nINDICATED AS IGOR ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE\r\nAND MOVES INTO THE WEAKNESS.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 2.  A CLUSTER THAT INCLUDES THE\r\nGFDL...THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGESTS A WEAKER RIDGE\r\nAND AN EARLIER TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON PRIMARILY ON THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND DAY 3\r\nAND CLOSER TO THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 17.7N  45.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.8N  47.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N  49.8W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.4N  51.8W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N  53.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.7N  56.7W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.6N  59.6W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 24.5N  62.5W   125 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-09-12 17:30:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n130 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nINDICATE THAT IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A\r\nCATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE VISIBLE AND BD-CURVE INFRARED \r\nENHANCEMENT PICTURES REVEAL A CLEAR 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE WITH A\r\nSURROUNDING INTENSE INNER CORE RING OF -80 DEGREE CELSIUS CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO\r\nINDICATE SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND\r\nTHEN SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  ALSO...FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE...BUT\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE TIMING OF THESE CYCLES.  \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nINCREASE IN THE INTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1830Z 17.7N  46.1W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.8N  47.5W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N  49.8W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.4N  51.8W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.0N  53.6W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.7N  56.7W   130 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.6N  59.6W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 24.5N  62.5W   125 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A RAPID PACE.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE INCREASED FURTHER...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY UPWARD TO 120 KT BASED ON A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THESE DATA AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED TO SHOW SOME\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING AND A PEAK INTENSITY AT DAY 3 OF 135\r\nKT...SIMILAR TO SHIPS MODEL. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IS BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN FORECASTING THE\r\nTIMING OF THESE CYCLES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/12. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY...HOWEVER THERE IS\r\nSTILL CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICAL MODEL SPREAD AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nHWRF...UKMET AND ECMWF REMAIN TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AND ARE\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHILE THE OTHER REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS WITH TIME IN THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...CLOSER TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OUT OF RESPECT TO THE RELIABLE ECMWF\r\nMODEL.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 17.7N  46.9W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 17.8N  48.7W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.1N  50.8W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 18.7N  52.6W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 19.4N  54.3W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 21.3N  57.1W   135 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 23.5N  60.0W   125 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 25.8N  62.9W   120 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...LOWER\r\nTHAN -70C...WRAPPING AROUND THE SLOWLY-SHRINKING EYE DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE RECENTLY WARMED A\r\nLITTLE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T6.5/127 KT AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM THE\r\nADT AND HIE ALGORITHMS ARE T6.6/130 KT AND T6.9/137 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n130 KT.  AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT FROM UW-CIMSS RUN AT NHC INDICATES\r\nTHAT THERE IS A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A 90 PERCENT CHANCE WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO END SOON...BUT THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS BY SHOWING IGOR\r\nREACHING THE THRESHOLD OF CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH BEFORE THAT HAPPENS.\r\nSOME WEAKENING IS THEN INDICATED AFTER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nOCCURS...BUT IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE WITH STRONG HURRICANES LIKE\r\nIGOR...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BUT ARE ALSO DIFFICULT\r\nTO FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE MEAN MOTION IS 270/11...BUT IGOR HAS BEEN WOBBLING A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THAT VECTOR.  IGOR IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY DICTATED BY A LARGE\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESPOND BY TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 24-48 HOURS.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nTROUGH COULD FLATTEN A LITTLE BY DAY 3 AND ALLOW THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS TOO MUCH\r\nDISAGREEMENT TO INDICATE A WESTWARD TURN IN THE FORECAST.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST STILL LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR THAT IGOR IS READY TO TURN.  THIS\r\nSOLUTION ALSO GIVES CREDENCE TO THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 17.6N  47.8W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 17.8N  49.5W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 18.2N  51.3W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 18.9N  53.0W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 19.8N  54.6W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  57.5W   125 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 24.0N  60.0W   120 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  63.0W   110 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR REMAINS A POWERFUL AND WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A\r\nSYMMETRIC EYEWALL...CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70 C...A 15 N MI\r\nCIRCULAR EYE...AND SPIRAL RAINBANDS.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM 0000 UTC...AND\r\nTHEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 130 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  AS IS COMMON FOR MAJOR HURRICANES IN FAVORABLE OCEANIC\r\nAND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTS...INTERNAL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY GOVERN\r\nTHE INTENSITY CHANGE OF IGOR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  SINCE IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS NOT YET BEGUN...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING TODAY. \r\nTHEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN FOLLOWING THE TREND IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IGOR IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nLITTLE MORE WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 11 KT...AND IS ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS IT APPROACHES A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nTROUGH FLATTENING IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW\r\nMUCH...IF ANY...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE\r\nTROUGH.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD MORE RIDGING\r\nNORTH OF IGOR...RESULTING IN A TRACK FARTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER\r\nMODELS.  OVERALL...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT FROM THE LAST CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 17.7N  48.8W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 17.9N  50.2W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N  51.8W   135 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 19.3N  53.4W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 20.4N  54.9W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.5N  57.7W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 25.0N  60.0W   115 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 28.0N  63.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY TOPS OF -60C TO\r\n-70C.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 6.5...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 130 KT.  THE UW-CIMSS SECONDARY EYEWALL\r\nFORMATION INDEX STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT A SECONDARY EYEWALL WILL\r\nFORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME\r\nSHORT TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS THAT ARE NOT REPRESENTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  ON LONGER TIME SCALES...ALL OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IGOR IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY...AND SHOW\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD\r\nTHROUGH THAT TIME.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO\r\nINCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE...HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE WILL BE\r\nSENSITIVE TO THE VERY UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST AT THOSE TIME\r\nRANGES.  THEREFORE...AT THOSE TIMES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE STRONGEST MODEL...THE SHIPS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9 KNOTS...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nBEFORE...AND A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...SHOWS IGOR TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nBY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTHROUGH 12 HOURS GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. FROM 12\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TRENDS TOWARD THE TVCN\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL FORWARD SPEED. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW\r\nAND THE TRACK OF IGOR.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MORE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND\r\nMOVE IGOR SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN KEEP THIS RIDGE FARTHER\r\nEAST AND ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE AND RECURVE AHEAD OF A\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE NOGAPS AND HWRF ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND SHOW A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5. GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT THESE TIMES AND IS OF LOWER\r\nCONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND\r\nWELL TO THE NORTH OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 17.5N  49.7W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.9N  50.8W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.7N  52.3W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 19.5N  53.7W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 20.6N  55.2W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N  58.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 25.5N  60.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 29.0N  63.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE EYE REMAINS VERY DISTINCT IN IR AND VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND\r\nALTHOUGH THE TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED A BIT...DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 130 KT.  IGOR WILL\r\nREMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MAINTAINING ITS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDOES NOT SHOW ANY WEAKENING UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS.  WHILE A 1640 UTC\r\nAMSR-E PASS DOES NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A SECONDARY EYEWALL\r\nYET...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL OCCUR\r\nIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME INTENSITY\r\nFLUCTUATIONS NOT REPRESENTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SLOW WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO OVERLY NEGATIVE FACTORS UNTIL\r\nTHE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5\r\nBUT IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL DUE WEST...270 DEGREES...AT 9 KNOTS.\r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE UKMET...INSISTS ON A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IGOR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO\r\nA LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET STILL SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nIGOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...TAKING THE CYCLONE FARTHER WEST\r\nTHAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS AND GFDL CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nTHE LEAST RIDGING AND TURN IGOR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  WHILE CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD REMAINS LOW...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nA LITTLE LESS SPREAD NOW THAN EARLIER TODAY.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS ENDS UP BEING VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nLARGE SWELLS FROM IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\nTOMORROW AND REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 17.7N  50.5W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.1N  51.7W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.9N  53.2W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 20.0N  54.7W   130 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 21.1N  56.1W   130 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 23.5N  58.5W   120 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 26.5N  61.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 30.0N  64.0W   105 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE MAY HAVE BEGUN.  TRMM...WINDSAT...AND\r\nSSMIS PASSES FROM ABOUT 5-6 HOURS AGO ALL INDICATED THAT A\r\nSECONDARY EYEWALL WAS BEGINNING TO FORM...AND MORE RECENTLY\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE BEEN WARMING.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES HAD FALLEN TO T6.0 TAFB AND SAB AT 0000\r\nUTC...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE IS T6.0/6.4.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 120 KT.  FOLLOWING\r\nA CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS\r\nIGOR AT THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING COULD OCCUR WHILE THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT IS IN PROGRESS.  SINCE IGOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE\r\nOVER WARM OCEAN WATERS AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE\r\nFORECAST ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING\r\nBETWEEN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH IS HINTED AT IN THE SHIPS OUTPUT. \r\nWEAKENING IS THEN INDICATED DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...BUT IT IS\r\nCONSERVATIVE AND STILL LIES JUST ABOVE THE UPPER BOUND OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIGOR JUST WILL NOT BUDGE VERY MUCH TO THE NORTH AND IS MOVING 275\r\nDEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE UKMET MODEL HAS CAPTURED THIS MOTION WELL\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN LOCATED ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  SINCE THERE IS STILL\r\nNO CLEAR EVIDENCE OF THE BEGINNING OF A TURN...THE NHC FORECAST\r\nTRACK LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE UKMET.\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS WHEN IGOR\r\nSHOULD HAVE REACHED THE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE SPREAD\r\nIN THE MODELS FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 HAS AGAIN TIGHTENED...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS\r\nFORECAST ALSO LIES CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES\r\nTHE GFDN...WHICH HAS BEEN FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE FOR\r\nSEVERAL CYCLES.\r\n \r\nLARGE SWELLS FROM IGOR WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\nTOMORROW AND REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 17.7N  51.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N  52.3W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.8N  53.7W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.9N  55.2W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.1N  56.6W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 24.0N  59.5W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  62.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 30.5N  64.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nSURROUNDING THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE...AND\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 115 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY AND T-NUMBERS.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  AS STATED\r\nEARLIER...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH DUE TO INNER CORE EVOLUTION ARE\r\nPROBABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN QUITE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nTO 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE AT LEAST SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING IS A\r\nDISTINCT POSSIBILITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH DAY 3 AND IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nLGEM MODEL AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF IGOR INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMUCH-AWAITED TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS OCCURRED...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/7.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK ON THIS PACKAGE.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES AND GLOBAL MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A BROAD TROUGH JUST\r\nEAST OF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A\r\nSERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THIS FEATURE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE RESULTING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE U.K. MET. OFFICE TRACK...WHICH IS\r\nLOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A WESTERN OUTLIER.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 5-DAY POINT...SINCE\r\nTRACK ERRORS COULD EASILY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES AT THAT FORECAST\r\nINTERVAL.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER IGOR\r\nWILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 17.9N  51.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.4N  52.8W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.4N  54.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N  55.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.7N  57.1W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.4N  60.2W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  63.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 31.5N  64.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF IGOR DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE 20 NM WIDE EYE REMAINING WELL DEFINED\r\nAND EYEWALL CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAINING COLDER THAN -70C.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HRS AGO...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 115 KT.  RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DO NOT YET\r\nSHOW AN OUTER EYEWALL...BUT DO SHOW THAT A LARGE RAIN-FREE MOAT HAS\r\nFORMED BETWEEN THE EYEWALL AND THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/6.  IGOR IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGED CAUSED BY A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS WEAKNESS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE\r\nBROADER TROUGH.  IN ADDITION...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES BY 96-120 HR...WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH FORMING\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER IGOR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD\r\nBETWEEN THE MORE WESTWARD UKMET/NOGAPS AND THE MORE EASTWARD GFDL. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nIGOR REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO\r\nBE CONTROLLED BY HARD-TO-TIME EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES DURING\r\nTHIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION\r\nBY 24 HR ON THE PREMISE THAT THE CURRENT INTERNAL CYCLE WILL BE\r\nCOMPLETE.  AFTER 72 HR...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY\r\nCOOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nBETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AND HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCAUSE INCREASED SHEAR.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE IGOR TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 96-120 HR.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE 5-DAY POINT...SINCE\r\nTRACK ERRORS COULD EASILY BE A FEW HUNDRED MILES AT THAT FORECAST\r\nINTERVAL.  IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER IGOR\r\nWILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 18.3N  52.3W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.8N  53.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 19.8N  54.8W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.8N  56.3W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.9N  57.8W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 24.5N  61.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  64.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 32.0N  65.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":27,"Date":"2010-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON AND THE EYE HAS ALSO WARMED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN\r\nBOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEVERAL DISTINCT\r\nVORTICES INSIDE THE EYE WERE ALSO NOTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN\r\nSEEN WITH PAST HURRICANES THAT WERE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT AND IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5/127 KT FROM SAB...3-HR\r\nAVERAGE ODT VALUES OF T6.7/133 KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nVALUES OF T6.5/127 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07...BASED ON A 12-HR AVERAGE OF\r\nSMOOTHING OUT THE MANY TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. IGOR MAY\r\nBRIEFLY WOBBLE BACK TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT\r\nTHE GENERAL MOTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER THAT\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY IN\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN 60W-70W LONGITUDE ABOUT EVERY 24-36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...\r\nIGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN 96-120 HOURS AS DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR STRENGTHENS BETWEEN IT AND A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH FORECAST OT BE NEAR 30N/40W BY THAT TIME.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE. BY\r\n120 HOURS...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND BE\r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA TO BRING ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THAT\r\nISLAND.\r\n\r\nIGOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 29C...AND MAINTAIN A\r\nVERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A\r\nRESULT...THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT DURING THE CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM PERIOD. HOWEVER...OWING TO THE LARGE SIZE OF IGOR...ITS\r\nSTRONG CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...AND ITS RELATIVELY SLOW FORWARD\r\nMOTION OF LESS THAN 10 KT...SOME COLD UPWELLING MAY OCCUR BENEATH\r\nTHE CORE OF THE HURRICANE AND CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE\r\nDESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALSO A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. REGARDLESS...\r\nIGOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS-LGEM INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS.  IT APPEARS AS THOUGH\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE AT FOUR AND FIVE DAYS MAY BE ADVERSELY AFFECTED\r\nBY THE REPRESENTATION OF THE WARM CORE OF THE HURRICANE IN THE GFS\r\nMODEL.  IN ADDITION...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A VERY\r\nFAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGH DAY FIVE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS HELD A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 18.8N  53.1W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N  54.3W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N  55.6W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  57.2W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.6N  58.8W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 25.4N  62.1W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 28.6N  64.5W   110 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 33.0N  65.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":28,"Date":"2010-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL...AND A SOLID WHITE\r\nRING ON THE DVORAK ENHANCEMENT HAS INTERMITTENTLY WRAPPED ENTIRELY\r\nAROUND THE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE UP\r\nTO T7.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...AND T6.5 AND T7.0 FROM TWO\r\nFORMS OF THE UW-CIMSS ADT.  SINCE THE WHITE RING DOES NOT ENTIRELY\r\nWRAP AROUND THE EYE AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nRAISED TO 135 KT.  IGOR REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS AND IS IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS THIS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WHEN IT IS LIKELY THAT INTERNAL\r\nDYNAMICS...WHICH ARE NOT WELL UNDERSTOOD...WILL INFLUENCE THE\r\nINTENSITY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 4 BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THAT GUIDANCE AT DAY 5 TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nIGOR IS MOVING AT 295/8.  THE HURRICANE HAS REACHED THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD MAKE A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nFOR THE FIRST 3-4 DAYS BUT THEN SHOWS MORE DIVERGENCE ON DAY 5 WITH\r\nTHE GFDL WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA AND THE ECMWF WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND ENDED UP BEING SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHERE IGOR ENDS UP IN 5 DAYS...THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OR NEAR BERMUDA\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 19.0N  53.9W   135 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.8N  55.0W   135 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.7N  56.4W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.7N  58.0W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.8N  59.6W   125 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.5N  63.0W   115 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  65.0W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.5N  65.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":29,"Date":"2010-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ENHANCED\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE EYE HAS COOLED.  IN ADDITION...AN\r\n0352 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED THAT THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nEYEWALL HAS ERODED.  BASED ON THIS DEGRADED APPEARANCE AND A BLEND\r\nOF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nLOWERED TO 125 KT.  IGOR REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...SO INTERNAL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT\r\nFACTOR FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THESE SMALL SCALE DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE NOT WELL\r\nUNDERSTOOD...USUALLY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...AND THAT IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME\r\nWEAKENING BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...AND THE EYE OF IGOR IS ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS IGOR ROUNDS THE RIDGE AND MOVES INTO\r\nA PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS.  IN GENERAL...THE NEW TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF IGOR...THE LARGE WIND FIELD OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY CLOSE TO OR NEAR BERMUDA\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGOR. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 19.5N  54.5W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.2N  55.6W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 21.1N  57.0W   130 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 21.9N  58.4W   125 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 22.9N  60.2W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 25.8N  63.3W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 29.5N  65.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 34.0N  64.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":30,"Date":"2010-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR WAS DETERIORATING DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING AND A DRY\r\nSLOT EVIDENT NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL MICROWAVE OVERPASSES\r\nALSO INDICATED A FURTHER EROSION OF THE INNER EYEWALL AND THE\r\nFORMATION OF AN OUTER EYEWALL AT ABOUT 60-70 NMI RADIUS. SINCE\r\nABOUT 1300 UTC...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF A RE-\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC ARE\r\n5.5 AND 6.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED UPON THESE\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 115 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY NEGATIVE LARGE-SCALE\r\nFACTORS THAT COULD PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nTWO TO THREE DAYS. INSTEAD...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY\r\nTO BE GOVERNED BY INTERNAL DYNAMICS FOR WHICH PREDICTABILITY IS\r\nPOOR. IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT IGOR SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED IN THE SHORT TERM BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. SHOULD THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE END DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THERE MAY BE AN OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR RE-INTENSIFICATION BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCES LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/07...AND THE\r\nTRACK PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  IGOR IS MOVING AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ENTER A LARGE WEAKNESS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD STEER IGOR NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nPOSSIBLY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  DURING THIS\r\nTIME...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON IGOR.  HOWEVER...\r\nIN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS...DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nPRESENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE RECURVATURE.  THERE ARE\r\nSTILL SOME TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS REGARDING\r\nTHIS FEATURE...WHICH COULD AFFECT HOW CLOSE IGOR PASSES TO BERMUDA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...CLOSE TO BUT JUST RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...IGOR HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD AND\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BRING ADVERSE CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 19.8N  55.0W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.5N  56.1W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.3N  57.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 22.1N  59.1W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 23.3N  60.8W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 26.0N  63.5W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 30.0N  65.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 34.5N  63.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":31,"Date":"2010-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT IGOR IS MAINTAINING ITS\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH INNER CORE CONVECTION MORE VIGOROUS\r\nTHAN EARLIER. HOWEVER...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IGOR IS EXPERIENCING IS STILL OCCURRING.\r\nA DISTINCT BUT PARTIAL INNER EYEWALL IS EVIDENT AND AN OUTER\r\nEYEWALL NOW AT 30-40 NM RADIUS SEEMS TO BE GRADUALLY CONTRACTING.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT 5.5 AND 6.0 FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE\r\nIS CLOSE TO 6.0. THESE ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS\r\nLARGE-SCALE FACTORS THAT COULD CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF\r\nIGOR DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ANY CHANGES IN INTENSITY DURING THIS\r\nTIME ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE RELATED TO INNER CORE DYNAMICS FOR WHICH\r\nPREDICTABILITY IS LOW. IN 3-4 DAYS...GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND IGOR SHOULD\r\nREACH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD. THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THESE\r\nFACTORS BY SHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...WITH THE FORECAST\r\nSTILL INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM AFTER THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE ENDS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOTION...AND THE LATEST ESTIMATE\r\nIS 295/07. IGOR IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND IS GRADUALLY\r\nENTERING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR ON A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. DURING THIS\r\nTIME...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON IGOR. HOWEVER...\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A VIGOROUS\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN STATES/CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES IN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE RECURVATURE. THE\r\nGFS/HWRF/GFDL HAVE BEEN INDICATING A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE FEATURE\r\nAND A SHARPER RECURVATURE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE UKMET...ECMWF...AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE\r\nHAD A WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAT COULD DELAY\r\nRECURVATURE AND ALLOW FOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE AND IS VERY NEAR THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...CONTINUING TO SHOW IGOR PASSING CLOSE TO\r\nBERMUDA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 20.1N  55.6W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.6N  56.7W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 21.4N  58.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 22.4N  59.8W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N  61.5W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 26.5N  64.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 31.0N  65.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 36.0N  61.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":32,"Date":"2010-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nBASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IGOR APPEARS TO BE COMPLETING AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT.  IN ADDITION...INFRARED GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INNER CORE CONVECTION DIMINISHING WITH\r\nAN OUTER RING OF CONVECTION BECOMING MORE PROMINENT.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB REMAIN AT T6.0/6.5 AND HAVE FALLEN TO T5.0/5.5\r\nFROM SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T6.3.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IGOR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 60 HOURS OR\r\nSO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY\r\nIF THE NEW OUTER EYEWALL CONTRACTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nBY DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND\r\nSHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nSHOW WEAKENING TO CATEGORY 1 OR 2 STRENGTH BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nIGOR IS MOVING 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND IS BEING INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY A LARGE BUT FLAT\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST.  SINCE THE\r\nTROUGH IS NOT THAT SHARP...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  IT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TURN\r\nMORE SHARPLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH ITS CENTER PASSING NEAR\r\nBERMUDA IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nBUT DOES SHOW SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN\r\nSINCE THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 20.2N  56.5W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.8N  57.6W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.7N  59.2W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.6N  60.8W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N  62.6W   115 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 27.5N  65.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 31.5N  65.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 36.5N  60.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":33,"Date":"2010-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT WITH IGOR IS COMPLETE.   THE NEW EYEWALL APPEARS TO BE\r\nCONSOLIDATING AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 30-35 N MI AND IS PRODUCING\r\nRATHER DEEP CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THE INTENSITY IS INCREASING\r\nAGAIN. A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GIVES AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 125 KT.\r\n \r\nA LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IS FAVORABLE\r\nFOR THE MAINTENANCE OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. THE EXACT INTENSITY OF IGOR WILL BE PRIMARILY\r\nDICTATED BY EYEWALL CYCLES...WHICH ARE WELL BEYOND OUR FORECAST\r\nABILITIES. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS THE MOST LIKELY SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST REFLECT\r\nTHIS. HOWEVER...IT IS MORE IMPORTANT TO RECOGNIZE THAT ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST...KEEPS IGOR AS A LARGE AND\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNSTEADY 300/6.  IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  WEAK TROUGHING ALONG ABOUT 70W SHOULD RECURVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS\r\nHOW QUICKLY IGOR ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDES. \r\nSINCE THE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RATHER FLAT...\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE MODELS TO SHOW WEAKER FLOW NEAR\r\nIGOR...AND CONSEQUENTLY DELAY THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  WITH REGARDS TO HOW CLOSE\r\nIGOR COMES TO BERMUDA...THE ECMWF IS NOW THE MOST EASTERN MODEL\r\nAFTER BEING THE WESTERNMOST YESTERDAY.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO\r\nTHAT MODEL SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE TODAY...WHICH ALLOWS\r\nIGOR TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE EARLY ON AND EVENTUALLY PASS A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER EAST OF BERMUDA.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nWELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND...AND LITTLE CHANGE\r\nHAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK NEAR BERMUDA.  SINCE THIS IS\r\nSUCH A LARGE HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON\r\nBERMUDA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...WILL COME TO THAT ISLAND. \r\n \r\nSO FAR...NOAA BUOY 41044 HAS REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 45\r\nKT...GUSTING TO 56 KT...ALONG WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995\r\nMB...AND A SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OF 29 FT.  HOWEVER...THE WORST\r\nIS YET TO COME FOR THAT STATION...AS IGOR WILL MOVE VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE BUOY TONIGHT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 20.5N  56.8W   125 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 21.1N  57.8W   125 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N  59.4W   125 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 23.2N  61.1W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 24.7N  62.7W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 28.0N  65.0W   110 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 32.5N  64.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 37.5N  59.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":34,"Date":"2010-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  34...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECT INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 115 KT TO 120 KT\r\n \r\nIGOR IS MAINTAINING VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND A 30-35 NMI WIDE EYE\r\nWITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC. THE RESTRICTED NATURE OF THE\r\nOUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE SUGGESTS SOME UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY ALSO BE\r\nCONTRIBUTING TO THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CDO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS 6.0 AT 1200 UTC AND SERVE AS THE BASIS\r\nFOR LOWERING THE INTENSITY TO 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE IGOR IN A FEW HOURS AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE\r\nASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE COMBINATION OF A SHEAR AXIS\r\nNORTHWEST OF IGOR AND THE SOUTHWESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR MAY BE IMPARTING WEAK\r\nTO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR TO THE HURRICANE. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT\r\nINDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR MAY PERSIST FOR NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nDECREASE...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH INNER CORE DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY INDUCE SOME DIFFICULT TO\r\nPREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A\r\nLARGE AND FORMIDABLE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE WEAKENING\r\nPOSSIBLY GREATER THAN INDICATED IF THE 30 TO 45 KT OF SHEAR\r\nPREDICTED BY THE GFS VERIFIES. THE GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE UNDERWAY BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SOME OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE BUT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nIGOR HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/06. LITTLE HAS\r\nCHANGED REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK PHILOSOPHY. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...IGOR\r\nSHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND TURN NORTH AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE SPREAD IN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH THE LATEST\r\nSOLUTIONS TRENDING SLIGHTLY LEFTWARD AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 21.0N  57.2W   120 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N  58.3W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 22.4N  60.0W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 23.8N  61.7W   120 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 25.3N  63.2W   120 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 29.0N  65.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 33.5N  63.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 39.0N  56.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":35,"Date":"2010-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE CENTER OF\r\nIGOR AROUND 1600 UTC. THE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 940 MB AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 130\r\nAND 98 KT...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THAT TIME..THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION...AND\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB. BASED UPON THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA AND THE LOWER SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 110 KT. THE EXTENSION OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF IGOR IS STILL PRODUCING ABOUT\r\n15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST\r\nUW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A REDUCTION IN THE\r\nSHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY...WHICH\r\nCOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM. THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT IGOR WILL BE MOVING INTO AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...AND OVER COOLER WATERS BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO\r\nFACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nNHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. BY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT IGOR WILL BE AT LEAST BEGINNING TO UNDERGO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME MOTION...310/7. THE\r\nREASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nSOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...\r\nIGOR SHOULD BEGIN ACCELERATING WHILE TURNING NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTHEAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE\r\nLATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE APPARENTLY\r\nDUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFORMENTIONED\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nWESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 21.7N  58.1W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 22.4N  59.2W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N  61.0W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 24.9N  62.7W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 26.5N  64.0W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 30.5N  65.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 35.5N  62.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  53.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":36,"Date":"2010-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 5.5 AND 6.0...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THIS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n110 KT.  THE EYE OF IGOR IS PASSING VERY NEAR NOAA BUOY 41044.\r\nTHROUGH 0200 UTC...THE 5-METER HIGH ANEMOMETER ON THE BUOY HAS\r\nREPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 69 KT WITH A GUST TO 91\r\nKT.  A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 940.3 MB WAS RECORDED AT 0050 UTC WITH\r\nWINDS AROUND 60 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS\r\nAROUND 935 MB.  DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE AND RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE...THE BUOY HAS NOW REPORTED TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS FOR 21 CONSECUTIVE HOURS.\r\n \r\nIGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WITH SHEAR LESS THAN 15 KT DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS\r\nTIME...AND THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY WILL LIKELY BE DICTATED BY\r\nEYEWALL CYCLES THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.  AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AND IGOR\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS IN 4-5 DAYS.  THIS WILL RESULT IN\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD IGOR WILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nIGOR HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...IGOR\r\nWILL ACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST UNITED\r\nSTATES IN A FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND\r\nNEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 22.0N  58.7W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N  60.0W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 24.2N  61.7W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 25.7N  63.3W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 27.3N  64.4W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 31.7N  65.1W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 37.5N  60.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 45.5N  47.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":37,"Date":"2010-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF IGOR HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED\r\nOVERNIGHT WITH WEAKER EYEWALL CONVECTION NOTED.   SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS RANGE FROM 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...TO UW-CIMSS\r\nADT NUMBERS NEAR 125 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT\r\nKEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 110 KT IS REASONABLE.  DATA FROM\r\nNOAA BUOY 41044 SUGGESTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS SEVERAL MB LOWER\r\nTHAN THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX FROM THIS AFTERNOON...WHEN THE INTENSITY\r\nWAS ALSO NEAR 110 KT.  \r\n \r\nIGOR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS WHILE IT STAYS IN A WARM WATER AND MOSTLY LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THEREAFTER...WATERS GRADUALLY COOL...WHILE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT INTENSITY...\r\nIGOR IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT\r\nPASSES CLOSE TO BERMUDA.  IN THE LONG RANGE... EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETED AROUND 120 HOURS...AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE SHOWING A RATHER INTENSE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OR 305 DEGREES\r\nAT 8 KT.  THE SYNOPTIC STEERING HAS BEEN RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED\r\nFOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AS IGOR TRAVELS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A TURN TO THE NORTH SHOULD OCCUR\r\nIN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE VERY\r\nCLOSE TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS TIME. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS. \r\nAFTER PASSING BERMUDA...IGOR SHOULD ACCELERATE AS IT BEGINS TO GET\r\nCAUGHT UP INTO THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES.  MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER IN THE LONG RANGE...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THAT IDEA.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 22.4N  59.4W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 23.2N  60.8W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 24.5N  62.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 26.1N  64.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 27.8N  64.9W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 32.5N  64.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  56.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 50.0N  45.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":38,"Date":"2010-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  38...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECT SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF IGOR HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO 5.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED UPON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 105 KT. AN 0915 UTC\r\nSSMIS OVERPASS SHOWED THE EXISTENCE OF A NEW OUTER WIND MAXIMUM AT\r\nABOUT 90 NMI RADIUS...WITH AN INNER EYEWALL PARTIALLY BROKEN TO THE\r\nWEST.  INNER CORE DYNAMICS ASIDE...THERE IS STILL AN  OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IGOR IS\r\nLOCATED IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING OVER WARM WATERS. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS AND\r\nWATERS GRADUALLY BECOME COOLER AFTER THAT.  BOTH OF THESE FACTORS\r\nSUGGEST A SLOW WEAKENING OF IGOR BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT TWO\r\nDAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE\r\nCOMPLETED BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nIGOR IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY STEADY MOTION OF 305/08.  THE STEERING\r\nFLOW AROUND THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD GUIDE\r\nIGOR ON A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTHE HURRICANE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR BEING SOMEWHAT SLOWER AT\r\n96 AND 120 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 23.1N  60.1W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N  61.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 25.4N  63.2W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 27.0N  64.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 28.8N  65.1W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 34.0N  63.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 41.0N  55.0W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 51.0N  44.5W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":39,"Date":"2010-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n  \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IGOR\r\nEARLY THIS AFTERNOON MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 946 MB. THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER ALSO MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS\r\nOF 102 AND 79 KT...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 90 KT BASED UPON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. DATA FROM THE PLANE\r\nALSO INDICATED A RATHER BROAD WIND FIELD...WITH THE PRESENCE OF A\r\nDOUBLE WIND MAXIMA. SINCE THE PLANE DEPARTED...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF\r\nIGOR HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS\r\nDEVELOPING WITHIN THE INNER CORE AND THE EYE BECOMING VISIBLE\r\nAGAIN. INNER CORE DYNAMICS NOTWITHSTANDING...THERE APPEARS TO BE A\r\nFINAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO AS IGOR REMAINS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVES\r\nOVER WARM WATERS. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOULD PROMOTE A WEAKENING OF IGOR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM BASED UPON CURRENT TRENDS BUT IS NEARLY THE SAME LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD. IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE...IGOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nA LARGE AND STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH\r\nATLANTIC BEYOND 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nIGOR APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n305/09.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED.  IGOR\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF BERMUDA...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED UPON DATA FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 23.7N  61.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 24.8N  62.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 26.2N  64.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 27.9N  64.9W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 30.0N  65.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 35.5N  62.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 43.5N  52.5W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 52.0N  44.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":40,"Date":"2010-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IGOR HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH A RING OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -70C AND COLDER\r\nENCIRCLING A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE THAT HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A 17/2026Z AMSU OVERPASS ALSO\r\nINDICATED THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAS STRENGTHENED AND MOVED\r\nUPWARD FROM 300 MB TO THE 200 MB...SUGGESTING THAT IGOR IS LIKELY\r\nSTRENGTHENING. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nINVESTIGATING IGOR AROUND 06Z AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. IGOR HAS MADE A TROCHOIDAL\r\nWOBBLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...BUT THIS IS\r\nLIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY MOTION. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK ON OR\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK BASED ON 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nFROM BERMUDA SHOWING 24-HOUR MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS HAVE INCREASED BY 20\r\nMETERS AND WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...\r\nWHICH INDICATES THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS BUILT WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF BERMUDA. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS RIDGING PATTERN WILL BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED DUE TO A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN 60W-70W LONGITUDE BY 24 HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW IGOR\r\nTO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE PATTERN AND PASS VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. BY\r\n72 HOURS...IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE CAPTURED BY A SECOND SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH AND BE ACCELERATED OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AS A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nIGOR IS EXHIBITING AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO\r\nEXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS\r\nFAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE...\r\nWHICH COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS...SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. BY 96\r\nHOURS...IGOR IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC WHEN IGOR MERGES\r\nWITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITIES AT 96 AND 120 HOURS\r\nIS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 24.6N  62.0W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 25.6N  63.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 27.1N  64.4W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 29.1N  65.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 31.7N  64.5W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 36.2N  61.2W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 45.0N  50.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 52.5N  42.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":41,"Date":"2010-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WHILE THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF IGOR HAD FALLEN TO 939 MB...THE WINDS AT FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WERE NOT EFFICIENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 115 KT FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AND A MAXIMUM WIND OF 77 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A\r\nLITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK AT 105 KT IN 24\r\nHOURS AND THEN A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nDETAILS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IGOR WILL BE A LARGE AND\r\nDANGEROUS HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES BERMUDA ON SUNDAY. WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS IGOR MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER.  ONCE IGOR COMPLETES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...IT WILL BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nAFTER A SHORT TERM WOBBLE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...THE LONG-TERM\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11.  IGOR IS SITUATED SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 35N...AND THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL OF THE MODELS TO WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IGOR WILL TURN\r\nNORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS ALONG 65W ON SUNDAY AND PASS VERY NEAR\r\nBERMUDA BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE RIDGE NORTH OF IGOR REMAINING A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND AS A RESULT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWER THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THIS DIRECTION...BUT REMAINS\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nTHE CONSENSUS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND SHOWS IGOR ACCELERATING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nIGOR HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\nAROUND 45 NAUTICAL MILES AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT UP\r\nTO 90 NM FROM THE CENTER.  CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON\r\nBERMUDA BY TONIGHT...WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 25.1N  62.8W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 26.2N  64.1W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 27.8N  65.1W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 29.9N  65.3W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 32.2N  64.7W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 38.5N  58.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 47.5N  46.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 51.5N  39.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":42,"Date":"2010-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF IGOR DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE\r\nHURRICANE IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WITH THE\r\n20 NM WIDE INNER EYE SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT MISSION GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN\r\n102 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 95 KT.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO\r\nINVESTIGATE IGOR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10.  DURING THE NEXT 36-72 HR...IGOR WILL\r\nROUND THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC AND ENTER THE WESTERLIES TO THE EAST OF A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS PART OF THE\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS THUS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH\r\nTHE CENTER OF IGOR PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN 36-48 HR.  AFTER\r\n72 HR...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS IGOR UNDERGOES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE ECMWF TURNS THE CYCLONE SHARPLY TO\r\nTHE NORTH...WHILE THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MORE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION.  THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...BUT LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nIGOR IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND\r\nTHIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR.  IT\r\nIS UNCERTAIN IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BE\r\nCOMPLETE ENOUGH TO ALLOW STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES...BUT CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST IT WILL NOT.  MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR SLOW\r\nWEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 36 HR...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHOWING MODEST STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nIGOR TO MAINTAIN A 95 KT INTENSITY FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY\r\nWEAKENING DUE TO SHEAR.  IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT IGOR COULD\r\nREGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE REACHING BERMUDA...BUT IT\r\nAPPEARS LESS LIKELY THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR. \r\nIGOR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE AFTER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND CONDITIONS WILL\r\nBEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA BY TONIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 26.0N  63.6W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 27.1N  64.6W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 28.9N  65.3W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 31.1N  65.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 33.9N  64.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 40.5N  56.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 47.5N  44.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 50.0N  36.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":43,"Date":"2010-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n\r\nIGOR CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IGOR\r\nFOUND A FRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL REMAINING INSIDE AN 85 N MI\r\nWIDE OUTER EYEWALL.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 945 MB.  THE MAXIMUM\r\n700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 113 KT...WHILE THE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED\r\nSURFACE WINDS FROM THE SFMR WERE 73 KT.  SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TWO EYEWALL DROPSONDES WERE NEAR 70 KT AND CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nCOINCIDENT SFMR READINGS.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS A\r\nLITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/12.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY...AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DURING THE NEXT 36-72 HR...IGOR WILL ROUND THE\r\nWESTERN END OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC AND ENTER THE WESTERLIES TO THE EAST OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE COAST OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE CENTER OF\r\nIGOR PASSING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER 72 HR...\r\nTHERE REMAINS SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS IGOR UNDERGOES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THIS PART OF THE TRACK IS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IT NOW LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT IGOR WILL COMPLETE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE IN TIME TO SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nINTERNAL TRENDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF INCREASED VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AFTER 24 HR.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT...IGOR SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE\r\nUNDERWAY BY 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR.  IGOR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE AFTER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96-120 HR INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND CONDITIONS WILL\r\nBEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA TONIGHT WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 27.1N  64.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 28.4N  65.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 30.5N  65.4W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 33.1N  64.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 36.1N  62.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 42.5N  52.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 48.0N  42.0W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 50.0N  35.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":44,"Date":"2010-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO AND IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT IGOR COULD BE A LITTLE BIT WEAKER TONIGHT. THE AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THERE IS NO EYE OBSERVED ON\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A MICROWAVE PASS A FEW HOURS AGO\r\nSHOWS A PARTIAL RING OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS LEFT OF\r\nTHE EYEWALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...BUT STILL SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY\r\nJUST A LITTLE BIT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...BUT I\r\nWOULD RATHER WAIT FOR DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WHICH\r\nWILL BE IN THE AREA SOON. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE\r\nWITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nAND IN FACT...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL KEEPS IGOR WITH NO\r\nCHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS IGOR WITH 85 KNOTS AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA...THE\r\nHURRICANE COULD EASILY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY. THEREAFTER...ONCE IGOR BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW WELL NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA...IT SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING FLOW HAS BEEN WELL ESTABLISHED AND WELL DEPICTED BY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SINCE IGOR FORMED MANY DAYS AGO...AND IT HAS BEEN\r\nDESCRIBED IN DETAIL IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. IGOR IS NOW MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...AND A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN SOON. IN 36 HOUR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nA LARGE TROUGH. GIVEN THE WELL ESTABLISHED STEERING CURRENTS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE\r\nIN THE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN MODELS BEYOND 48 HOURS AS IGOR BECOMES POST-TROPICAL/\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO HAVE A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...AND CONDITIONS\r\nSHOULD DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA SOON WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 28.2N  64.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 29.7N  65.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 32.0N  65.1W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N  64.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 38.5N  60.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 46.0N  50.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 49.5N  40.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 53.0N  35.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":45,"Date":"2010-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE THAT IGOR HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDID NOT REPORT AN EYEWALL...AND SOME DRY AIR ALSO APPEARS TO BE\r\nWORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION...PARTICULARLY OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLIGHT LEVEL MAXIMUM WIND OF 91 KT AND A\r\nMAXIMUM SFMR READING OF 68 KT.  WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE\r\nDECREASED...THE SFMR DATA SHOWS THAT THE WIND FIELD OF IGOR\r\nCONTINUES TO BROADEN...AND THE 50-KT AND 64-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nINCREASED.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND IGOR WILL BE A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BY\r\nBERMUDA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SUBJECTS THAT ISLAND TO A LONG\r\nPERIOD OF STRONG WINDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS LIKELY\r\nLASTING AT LEAST 24 HOURS.  BY 72 HOURS...IGOR WILL TRANSITION TO A\r\nPOWERFUL AND LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN\r\nTHROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10.  THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES\r\nWERE LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE APPARENT CENTER IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND ALSO A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...AS IGOR WILL TURN NORTHWARD SOON AS IT MOVES\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN\r\nACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS IT RECURVES AHEAD\r\nOF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. \r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND LIES ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES BEYOND 48 HOURS DUE\r\nTO VARIATIONS IN THE DETAILS OF HOW IGOR INTERACTS WITH THE \r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW DURING AND AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4 AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.  AT DAY 5 THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS POST-TROPICAL IGOR SLOWING AND TURNING MORE NORTHWARD\r\n...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS SCENARIO AS THE SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS VERY LARGE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 28.9N  65.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 30.5N  65.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 33.4N  64.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 37.0N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 41.0N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 49.0N  47.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 53.0N  38.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 56.5N  36.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":46,"Date":"2010-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF IGOR\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED\r\nTHE HURRICANE THIS MORNING.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 75 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.  DRIFTING BUOY 44903...RECENTLY REPORTED A\r\nPRESSURE OF 951 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE THAT WAS REPORTED EARLIER BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT. THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO REACH\r\nTHE HURRICANE AROUND 1800 UTC THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nIGOR HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/12.  THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THEN\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS\r\nAND LIES JUST EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS ARE IN\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SYSTEM PASSING NEAR OR JUST\r\nSOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN 2-3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  AT THE LONGER\r\nRANGE...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE THE CONSENSUS AND \r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nIGOR WILL REMAIN A LARGE HURRICANE AS IT PASSES BERMUDA...AND \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST WHILE IGOR REMAINS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN \r\nABOUT A DAY AND SHOULD BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nTHIS IS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT THE\r\nOFFICIAL OBSERVING SITE IN BERMUDA...WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR\r\nHURRICANE FORCE ALREADY REPORTED.  THE 34-KT WIND RADII WAS\r\nEXPENDED OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA \r\nBUOY 41048.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 30.4N  65.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 32.3N  65.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 35.4N  63.9W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 39.3N  60.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 43.5N  55.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 50.5N  45.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 54.5N  40.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 59.0N  39.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":47,"Date":"2010-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 82 KT AND 68 KT...RESPECTIVELY. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY \r\nTO 70 KT.  THE WIND FIELD REMAINS QUITE LARGE AND SOME OF THE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN EXPENDED OUTWARD BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND EARLIER\r\nASCAT DATA.  LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED WHILE IGOR\r\nREMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN ON MONDAY...AND BE \r\nCOMPLETED IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER IGOR BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES WERE A FEW TENTHS OF A DEGREE WEST OF THE EARLIER\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THIS HAS REQUIRED A LITTLE ADJUSTMENT TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  THE UPDATED POSITION HAS ALSO REQUIRED\r\nA SMALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK. \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...\r\nHOWEVER...AND IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST TONIGHT AHEAD OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT IN THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nPORTION OF THE TRACK AND THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE AT 3 TO 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE EASTWARD AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF IGOR IS LIKELY TO PASS WEST OF\r\nBERMUDA...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND A LARGE DISTANCE FROM THE\r\nCENTER AND SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT ON THE ISLAND. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 31.5N  65.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 33.6N  65.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 36.9N  62.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 40.6N  58.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 45.0N  52.0W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 51.0N  41.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 55.0N  37.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 60.0N  37.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":48,"Date":"2010-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY RISING AND\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 68 KT.  THERE WERE A\r\nFEW SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 TO 69 KT ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THESE WERE FLAGGED AS\r\nQUESTIONABLE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT...WHICH IS\r\nREMARKABLY LOW FOR THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB.  NOT\r\nMUCH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nBY 36 HOURS...THE GFS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED THERMAL ADVECTION WITHIN\r\nTHE CIRCULATION AND THEREFORE IGOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN\r\nTRANSFORMED INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK IS BEGINNING TO\r\nBEND TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 015/12. \r\nNOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS.  IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY\r\nAND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE LATTER HALF\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL IGOR IS LIKELY TO TURN BACK\r\nTO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT HIGH LATITUDES.\r\n\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF 64 KT WITH GUSTS TO 81 KT WERE REPORTED AT\r\nBERMUDA DURING THE PAST HOUR.  SINCE IGOR HAS A VERY LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND WILL PROBABLY\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 32.4N  65.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 34.6N  64.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 38.1N  60.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 42.5N  55.5W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 46.5N  49.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 49.5N  38.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 58.0N  37.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 62.0N  42.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":49,"Date":"2010-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPUTTERING NEAR THE CENTER OF IGOR OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND EARLIER\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA SUPPORT KEEPING IGOR AT HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE IGOR\r\nUNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36\r\nHOURS WHEN GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING FULLY\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE.  POST-TROPICAL IGOR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE\r\nWEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF IGOR\r\nHAS INCREASED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/17. IGOR\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT RECURVES\r\nAHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY DAYS 3 AND 4 IGOR WILL TURN NORTHWARD\r\nAND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nMOVING EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE DAVIS STRAIT. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN THE FIRST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION AND LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE...BUT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS. FROM 48 HOURS ONWARD...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN. HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW IGOR INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER\r\nLOW...AND CONFIDENCE IN TRACK FORECAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD\r\nIS LOW.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL BEING FELT ON BERMUDA...BUT\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY.  STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE\r\nALONG THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND AS IGOR PASSES BY...AND THE\r\nCANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THAT PROVINCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 34.2N  64.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 36.7N  62.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 40.6N  57.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 45.6N  50.8W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 47.7N  44.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 55.0N  37.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 61.0N  41.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":50,"Date":"2010-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS DISPLACED ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nRECENT OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OF IGOR...BUT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY AT OR JUST BELOW 65 KT.\r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IGOR\r\nCOULD REGAIN A LITTLE BIT OF STRENGTH AS IT BEGINS TO GO THROUGH\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THAT PROCESS IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE\r\nBY 36 HOURS WHEN IGOR SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SOME RE-STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36-96 HOURS. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS.  THIS FORECAST\r\nIS MORE OR LESS A BLEND OF DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED\r\nBY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A MOTION OF\r\n025/21.  THERE IS LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST ONLY HAD TO BE\r\nSHIFTED A SMALL DISTANCE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nAFTER 36 HOURS...THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE\r\nBULK OF THE MODELS SHOW POST-TROPICAL IGOR TURNING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTOWARD GREENLAND.  THE NHC FORECAST BY 96 HOURS IS TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS TO PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nLESS ON THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER ALSO PROVIDED THE CURRENT 12-FOOT SEAS\r\nRADII AND THE WIND RADII DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE...ALL OF\r\nWHICH HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  IGOR WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO BE A LARGE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES PAST NEWFOUNDLAND TOWARD\r\nGREENLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 36.1N  63.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 38.9N  60.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 42.9N  55.0W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 46.8N  48.9W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 50.4N  44.0W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 56.5N  40.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 62.5N  47.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":51,"Date":"2010-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR APPEARS TO BE STARTING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE HURRICANE...AND COLD ADVECTION\r\nIS INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF ITS CIRCULATION.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT IGOR SHOULD BE FULLY INCORPORATED INTO\r\nTHE FRONTAL ZONE BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  ASCAT DATA FROM\r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS...\r\nBETWEEN 55-64 KT...OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM AND\r\nSUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  THE ORIENTATION OF THE\r\nSTRONG WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT ALSO SUGGESTS THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS OCCURRING.  IGOR COULD BE REINVIGORATED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...\r\nFOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/24.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SHOWS INCREASING\r\nSPREAD AFTER THAT TIME.  THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD GREENLAND AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...BUT THERE IS NOT AS MUCH AGREEMENT IN THE FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCN...AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.  THEREFORE...\r\nENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE\r\nEASTERN PART OF THAT PROVINCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 38.2N  61.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 41.0N  57.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 45.3N  52.3W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 50.1N  47.5W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 54.6N  45.8W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 60.0N  46.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 66.0N  56.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":52,"Date":"2010-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 20 2010\r\n\r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...HOWEVER\r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  MOREOVER...SHORT-TERM GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT IS WITHIN THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS NOT YET REACHED THE CENTER.  IGOR IS THEREFORE NOT\r\nCOMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT AND WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT IS...HOWEVER...EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL ON TUESDAY.  SOME BAROCLINICALLY INDUCED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES PAST THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nMERGING WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER HIGH LATITUDES.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT FASTER 045/25.  IGOR...OR ITS\r\nPOST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED AROUND A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.  ENVIRONMENT CANADA\r\nIS THEREFORE MAINTAINING THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN\r\nPART OF THAT PROVINCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 39.9N  59.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 43.2N  55.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 48.9N  49.4W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 54.8N  47.9W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 59.0N  52.7W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 63.5N  59.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 68.5N  62.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":53,"Date":"2010-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n\r\nIGOR CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS IT\r\nBECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE.  HOWEVER...A SMALL\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THUS...IGOR IS AGAIN MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY TO BE COMPLETE LATER\r\nTODAY...WITH SOME BAROCLINICALLY-INDUCED STRENGTHENING EXPECTED. \r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MERGING WITH\r\nANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER HIGH LATITUDES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/36.  IGOR...OR THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME...IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED AROUND A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE OVER NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...THEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH\r\nTHEREAFTER DURING THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 72-96 HR.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH IGOR IS FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT PASSES\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...TROPICAL-STORM AND POSSIBLY HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS\r\nCOULD REACH THE COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BEFORE THE TRANSITION IS\r\nCOMPLETE.  ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH AND\r\nEXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PART OF THAT\r\nPROVINCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 42.8N  55.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 46.7N  51.3W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 52.3N  48.4W    75 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 56.7N  48.3W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 60.5N  52.5W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 62.5N  59.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 64.0N  61.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":54,"Date":"2010-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nIGOR IS VERY CLOSE TO LOSING ALL ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND\r\nWILL LIKELY BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ASCAT\r\nDATA SHOULD BE RECEIVED FROM NEAR THE HURRICANE SOON...AND A\r\nRE-ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY WILL BE MADE AT THAT TIME.  IGOR\r\nCOULD STILL GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT\r\nMOVES NORTHWARD PAST NEWFOUNDLAND BUT THEN ALL THE MODELS SHOW\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NEAR GREENLAND.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND GUIDANCE\r\nPROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nIGOR IS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AT 40 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT IGOR WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS AS IT SWINGS AROUND NEWFOUNDLAND AND MOVES THROUGH THE\r\nDAVIS STRAITS.  THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN\r\nMARKEDLY FROM 36-96 HOURS AS IT INTERACTS AND POSSIBLY MERGES WITH\r\nANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF QUEBEC. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND REMAINS RELATIVELY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 46.2N  52.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 50.2N  49.4W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 55.3N  48.5W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 59.8N  51.6W    65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 62.7N  57.8W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 63.5N  61.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 62.0N  60.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Igor","Adv":55,"Date":"2010-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL112010\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nLAND AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN NEWFOUNDLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS\r\nINDICATE THAT IGOR HAS BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE.\r\nJUST AFTER THE CENTER OF IGOR PASSED OVER CANADIAN BUOY 44251 NEAR\r\nCAPE RACE EARLIER IN THE DAY...THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED BY ABOUT 10\r\nDEGREES F.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS STILL PRODUCING HURRICANE-\r\nFORCE WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON\r\nREPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 63 KT AT BONAVISTA NEWFOUNDLAND.  IGOR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS FOR\r\nANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES\r\nNORTHWARD INTO THE DAVIS STRAITS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 25 DEGREES AT 34 KT.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN\r\nSHOWING IGOR TURNING NORTHWESTWARD TO THE WEST OF GREENLAND IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND INTERACTING WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nNEAR NORTHERN QUEBEC.  THE MODELS DO SHOW VARYING SOLUTIONS...\r\nHOWEVER...ON WHICH OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT\r\nONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IN ACCORDANCE WITH GUIDANCE\r\nPROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...WILL KEEP IGOR AS A\r\nDISTINCT CYCLONE THROUGH 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES\r\nVERY LITTLE MOTION FROM 72 TO 96 HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nNORTH OF THE BELT OF STRONG WESTERLIES BY THEN.\r\n\r\nTHE 12-FT SEAS RADII PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER ARE 480\r\nNE...900 SE...1320 SW...AND 380 NW.  RADII IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY\r\nARE LIMITED TO 995 N MI...BUT 12-FT SEAS ARE ACTUALLY OCCURRING AT\r\nA GREATER DISTANCE THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 49.3N  51.7W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 53.0N  49.8W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 57.2N  51.0W    70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 61.6N  57.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 62.5N  60.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 62.0N  60.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 61.5N  59.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT\r\nMOVED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA YESTERDAY NOW HAS ENOUGH\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE CURVED BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\n...AND OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THAT PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOW ABOUT 10 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDIMINISH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING. THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW SOME\r\nWEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THEIR\r\nPEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE LATE IN THE PERIOD. AS A COMPROMISE\r\n...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM THROUGH\r\nDAY 3 AND CLOSE TO ICON AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/12...AS THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTH AFRICA TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN\r\nA LITTLE BY 48 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE AZORES. ON DAYS\r\n4 AND 5 THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD.  THIS ALLOWS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN EAST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO A BLEND OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 12.7N  21.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 12.8N  23.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 13.5N  25.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 14.5N  27.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 15.7N  29.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N  32.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N  37.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 26.5N  43.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION JUST\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...HOWEVER THE INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EXPERIENCING\r\nSOME EASTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR\r\nTO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND STAY BELOW 15 KT UNTIL 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nSHOWING STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT TIME...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL\r\nALONG THE TRACK AND THE SHEAR INCREASES AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AS INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.  GIVEN THE MIXED TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME\r\nPERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 65 KT\r\nTHROUGH DAY 5. \r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT POSITION IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE OVERALL\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN IS EXPECTED SOON AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED CONTINUE THROUGH 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CUTS OFF NEAR 40W. THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nFORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND BEYOND THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 13.3N  22.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N  24.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.6N  27.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 15.6N  29.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 16.9N  30.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N  34.2W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N  39.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 27.1N  45.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 12 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CURVED BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION THAT WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT\r\nFROM SAB.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMMS ARE SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER.  A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...THE TENTH OF THE 2010 \r\nATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nAND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nDURING THAT TIME JULIA WILL BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER AND AS A\r\nRESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...\r\nAND GFDL MODELS ALL BRING JULIA TO HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN TWO DAYS\r\nAND THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THEREAFTER...JULIA WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN\r\nAREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE EAST OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.  IT IS A BIT SURPRISING\r\nGIVEN THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nLITTLE...IF ANY...WEAKENING.  BECAUSE OF THAT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL KEEP JULIA AT 65 KT AT DAYS 3-5 FOR NOW.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JULIA WAS RELOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION BASED ON THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nTHE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\nTURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS JULIA\r\nMOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT CUTS OFF\r\nNEAR 40W.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 13.5N  23.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.0N  25.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.9N  27.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 15.9N  29.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.1N  31.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 20.9N  35.1W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 24.5N  41.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N  46.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF JULIA.  MOST OF THE BANDING FEATURES ARE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH PERHAPS A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB ARE 35 KT...SO THE WIND SPEED IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE WEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS JULIA MOVES AWAY FROM AN AREA\r\nOF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER WEST\r\nAFRICA.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD\r\nEXPERIENCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...WHICH\r\nWOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A\r\nCYCLONE WILL CUT OFF FROM THE TROUGH AND BECOME SITUATED TO THE\r\nSOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF JULIA.  THIS SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN LESS\r\nSHEAR AND ALLOW MORE STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...THE GFS INPUT TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWS 25 TO 35\r\nKT OF SHEAR AT 96-120 HOURS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 3 TO\r\n5.\r\n \r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES ARE A BIT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\nTHIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME REFORMATION OR MERELY BECAUSE THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  AFTER SOME ADJUSTMENTS...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 300/11.  NOTWITHSTANDING THE\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JULIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT\r\nOF SPREAD IN THE MODEL FORECAST TRACKS FOR DAYS 3 TO 5....AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE.  THIS\r\nIS CLOSE TO BUT A TAD SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THE\r\nLATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND ALSO A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE NORTHWARD RELOCATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 14.4N  24.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 15.1N  26.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.2N  28.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N  30.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 19.0N  31.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.5N  36.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 25.5N  41.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 28.5N  46.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n\r\nMETEOSAT-9 IMAGERY AND A 0938 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATE\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CYCLONE...WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS THE MOST\r\nIMPRESSIVE.  DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE T2.5...35 KT...AND THIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...JULIA COULD BE\r\nIMPACTED BY A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN\r\nAMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD HINDER FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO BY MAINTAINING JULIA AS A\r\nLOW-END HURRICANE THROUGH 96 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE SHIPS...\r\nLGEM...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IGOR WILL CREATE MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nAROUND DAY 5 IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS\r\nJULIA WEAKENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM. \r\n\r\nBASED ON A NUMBER OF MICROWAVE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/12...A LITTLE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH DAY 5 WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nJULIA. BEYOND THIS TIME...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE CUT-OFF LOW\r\nWEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO MAINTAIN A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFAVORS THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 14.9N  26.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.6N  27.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.7N  29.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N  31.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 19.6N  33.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.8N  37.7W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 25.5N  43.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 28.5N  47.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED A BIT. \r\nBANDING CONTINUES TO IMPROVE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A\r\nSMALL IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE IS DEVELOPING OVER\r\nTHE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY\r\n...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 53 KT USING THE SHEAR PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...THE LGEM...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO\r\nSHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD FEEL THE AFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN\r\nAMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CURTAIL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JULIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24\r\nHOURS AND THEN BASICALLY MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY THROUGH DAY 4. \r\nAFTERWARD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH LARGER HURRICANE IGOR WILL PRODUCE MODERATE\r\nTO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA.  THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS JULIA WEAKENING\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM AT DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 295/12.  THE GFS...\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND THE GFDL ARE NOW INDICATING MORE\r\nOF A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE 24 TO 36 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO A\r\nDEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW LOCATED NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nOF JULIA.  HOWEVER...THE NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SHOW A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHICH APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A\r\nSHALLOWER VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS NORTHEAST OF THE JULIA AS THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nCUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JULIA TO\r\nMAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL AND IS WEIGHTED MORE TOWARD THE\r\nMODELS THAT INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 15.3N  27.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N  29.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N  30.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.8N  32.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 20.5N  34.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 23.8N  39.7W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 27.0N  46.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 30.0N  49.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 13 2010\r\n\r\nA RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DESPITE THE IMPROVED\r\nPRESENTATION...DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 45 KT...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED FOR NOW.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED BY A 2324 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED SEVERAL 35-40 KT\r\nWIND VECTORS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11 KT.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER JULIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE IN A DIRECTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nAS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON WHEN THE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS/GFDL ARE ALONG THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TVCN\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE GFS/GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nJULIA WILL BE OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE BRING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THAT TIME AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO HALT ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW\r\nFROM IGOR WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON JULIA.  AS A RESULT...\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 15.6N  28.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 16.3N  29.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N  31.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.1N  32.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.1N  35.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 24.3N  40.9W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 27.5N  46.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 31.5N  50.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.  A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS\r\nOCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT...AND THE CIMSS ADT\r\nESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR THAT VALUE.  ON THIS BASIS...JULIA IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH THE INITIAL WIND SPEED SET AT 65 KT.\r\n\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO AS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 27 C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN 24\r\nTO 48 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION DURING THAT\r\nTIME PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS BEYOND A FEW DAYS...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...SHOULD INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nDURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIA TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF\r\nJULIA.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST IN THE 3 TO 5\r\nDAY RANGE...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 16.1N  29.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 16.8N  30.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.1N  31.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.7N  33.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  36.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N  42.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 27.5N  48.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 32.0N  51.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA IS STILL STRENGTHENING. A 0920\r\nUTC SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL SURROUNDED BY TWO\r\nPROMINENT BANDS...WHILE CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWS THE APPEARANCE\r\nOF A WELL-DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A BANDING-TYPE EYE.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC ARE 4.0 AND 5.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75\r\nKT...BASED UPON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nWHILE SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...\r\nLOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF JULIA. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPART WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT ABOUT THE TIME JULIA\r\nBEGINS TO PASS OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WATERS\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK IN A FEW\r\nDAYS...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED THE OUTFLOW OF IGOR THAT COULD NEGATIVELY IMPACT JULIA\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS. IN FACT...SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...JULIA\r\nCOULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF THE PREDICTED SHEAR MATERIALIZES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09...INDICATING THAT JULIA HAS\r\nRECENTLY SLOWED A BIT. THERE IS AN UNUSUAL AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST. THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL SHOW JULIA TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT INTERACTS WITH\r\nAN EXTENSION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE UKMET/ECMWF FAVOR A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE\r\nAS A RESULT OF MORE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. FROM ABOUT 36-72 HR...\r\nTHERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE OF SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF JULIA AND HENCE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nCOURSE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER 72 HR...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW JULIA TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE LARGE HURRICANE IGOR\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nNUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...LYING NEAR A CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES\r\nTHE UKMET.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 16.2N  29.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.2N  30.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.7N  32.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.3N  34.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.2N  37.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 24.7N  44.3W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 32.5N  50.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT\r\nASYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE MASS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAVING FORMED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nEYE THAT WAS VISIBLE EARLIER IS ALSO NO LONGER AS EVIDENT. THE\r\nOUTFLOW HAS BECOME A BIT RESTRICTED TO THE WEST...INDICATIVE OF\r\nSOME UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ALREADY IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.\r\nDVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 1800 UTC ARE UNCHANGED FROM 1200 UTC...WHILE\r\nTHE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUE IS AT 4.6. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS SLOWED A BIT FURTHER...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nUKMET...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE\r\nCONCERNING THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTERLY COURSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS\r\nIT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FROM A CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.\r\nFROM 24-72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JULIA SHOULD TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD ONCE IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT AGAIN\r\nUSING A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET BUT HAS SHIFTED A\r\nBIT TO THE LEFT LATE IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW OF\r\nHURRICANE IGOR...MAY ALREADY BE NEGATIVELY IMPACTING JULIA.  SHIPS\r\nMODEL OUTPUT INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AT THE SAME TIME JULIA TRAVERSES MARGINAL SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER WARMER WATERS AGAIN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A STRONG SURGE OF NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nOUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR ADVERSELY AFFECTING JULIA.  ALTHOUGH\r\nFEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST...\r\nJULIA COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF THE PREDICTED SHEAR\r\nMATERIALIZES.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 16.7N  30.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 17.8N  31.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.5N  33.1W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.3N  35.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N  39.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N  46.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 29.1N  50.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA HAS AGAIN DEVELOPED A SMALL EYE...AND INTENSE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THAT FEATURE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n90 KT.  MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOW A LITTLE\r\nELONGATED AND OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...LIKELY DUE TO SHEAR PRODUCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nTO ITS NORTHWEST.  EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS ALREADY PRESENT...IT\r\nMAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH YET TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND SHOWN IN THE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.  AFTER 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nDRASTICALLY AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nJUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE RECENT\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND IT STILL SHOWS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nBY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED\r\nON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...BUT THE MOTION IS STILL ESTIMATED AT\r\n295/8.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHORTLY...BUT IT\r\nSHOULD TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 36 HOURS AS IT GETS\r\nSTEERED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER LOW AND A BLOCKING\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  BY DAY 4...JULIA WILL HAVE REACHED THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE\r\nEAST OF IGOR...AND IT SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHWEST THEN TO THE\r\nNORTH BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED THROUGH\r\nDAY 4 BUT THEN WIDENS ON DAY 5 WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A MORE\r\nWESTERLY COURSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE CONSENSUS TVCN ON DAY 5 OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 16.7N  30.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N  32.1W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N  34.2W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  37.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.4N  40.8W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-09-15 16:30:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1230 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIA HAS RAPIDLY\r\nSTRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE EYE NOW MORE\r\nDISTINCT AND CIRCULAR AND THE LARGER CIRCULATION LESS ELONGATED\r\nTHAN IT WAS EARLIER. CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -75 C NOW SURROUND THE\r\nEYE.  A SPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB GAVE A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF\r\n6.0 OR 115 KT AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE\r\nCLOSER TO 100 OR 105 KT.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE NEW\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT HAS\r\nOBVIOUSLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CHANGES.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0530Z 16.9N  31.3W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.8N  32.1W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.4N  34.2W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N  37.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.4N  40.8W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  51.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  51.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n\r\nA RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE WAS NOTED A FEW HOURS AGO.  THIS WAS\r\nMOSTLY UNEXPECTED...AND REMINDS US OF OUR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE.  JULIA IS STILL STRENGTHENING...\r\nBUT AT A SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER RATE THAN WAS OBSERVED LAST EVENING\r\nAND EARLIER THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS NOT WARMED\r\nMUCH...THE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 115\r\nKT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY...\r\nMAKING JULIA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  JULIA COULD STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE MORE TODAY AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A\r\nMODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 12 TO 24 HOURS AS JULIA\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND THEN INTO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR.  THE NHC OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS AS\r\nNONE OF THE GUIDANCE ANTICIPATED THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING OF\r\nJULIA.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS NOW TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A 12-HOUR\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/9.  A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JULIA NEARS A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...A TURN\r\nBACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE\r\nHURRICANE IS STEERED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A STRENGTHENING\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nNEW GUIDANCE SUITE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 17.3N  31.8W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 18.6N  33.2W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  35.9W   120 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 22.2N  39.3W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.4N  42.6W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 26.3N  48.1W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 30.0N  50.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 34.0N  49.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH\r\nJULIA WHEN THE HURRICANE REACHED CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. THIS\r\nSTRENGTHENING APPPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF THIS MORNING...AS\r\nOUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR COMBINED WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW\r\nIS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER JULIA.  THIS LEVELING OF ITS\r\nINTENSITY ALSO SHOWS UP WITH THE T NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND\r\nTAFB...WHICH HOVER AND DROP SLIGHTLY AROUND/BETWEEN 5 AND 6.\r\nHOWEVER JULIA MAINTAINS A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST/CORE AND\r\nCLEAR EYE STRUCTURE WITH IMPRESSIVE CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT... THUS\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KTS. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN THIS STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE BEGINNING TO\r\nWEAKEN AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH MARGINAL AND COOLER SST VALUES.  \r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT BUDGED MUCH BUT THERE REMAINS RATHER\r\nLARGE SPREAD WITHIN THE GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IN THE EARLY\r\nMEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. FOR THE NEXT 60 TO 72 HRS...JULIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE AROUND 15 KTS OR GREATER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER 72 HRS...JULIA FORWARD MOTION SLOWS AS A\r\nNORTHERN STREAM RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nWHICH KEEPS THE STORM FROM ACCELERATING INTO THE MAIN BAND OF THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINED A TIGHT\r\nCORRELATION TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 18.2N  32.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N  34.4W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.3N  37.5W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 22.9N  41.0W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.3N  44.2W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 27.5N  49.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 31.5N  50.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N  47.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MUSHER\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF JULIA HAS BEEN APPARENT INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  A 1912 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATES THAT THERE IS SOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EYE...DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  JULIA HAS\r\nLIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n110 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS THAT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING\r\nINTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW JULIA\r\nMOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. A FASTER RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3-5...BUT IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS THE JULIA VERY RAPIDLY AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS.  DURING THIS TIME...THE FORWARD SPEED OF JULIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE.  BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nBE STEERED IN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED BETWEEN JULIA AND\r\nTHE AZORES ISLANDS.  THEREAFTER...JULIA SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND HURRICANE IGOR TO THE WEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A\r\nLITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THIS CYCLE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 19.2N  33.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.6N  35.5W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 22.6N  38.9W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 24.3N  42.4W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N  45.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 30.0N  49.6W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 34.0N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 36.0N  45.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA IS COMING UNDER INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE ARE DISPLACED FROM ONE ANOTHER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW T5.0/5.5 FROM TAFB...T4.0/5.0 FROM SAB...AND\r\nT5.3/5.7 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JULIA COULD\r\nBE WEAKER THAN THAT.  JULIA IS LOCATED VERY NEAR A DEVELOPING\r\nCLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND STRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER THE HURRICANE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS\r\nAND IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  JULIA SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT THAT TIME SINCE THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...FOR SOME UNKNOWN REASON...SHOWS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATED BY\r\nDAY 5.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE SINCE THE GFS STILL SHOWS AN INTACT\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING AT 315/14. \r\nADDITIONAL ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS JULIA\r\nIS STEERED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS NORTHEAST AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST...ALMOST LIKE A SLING-SHOT AFFECT. \r\nJULIA WILL THEN BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH FROM\r\n48-72 HOURS AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH IGOR.  THE\r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5 AS JULIA GETS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LIES JUST TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  JUST LIKE IN THE CASE WITH\r\nIGOR...THE ECMWF MODEL LIES AT THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND CANNOT BE IGNORED. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 20.2N  34.6W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 21.7N  36.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.6N  40.4W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 25.3N  43.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  46.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 31.5N  49.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 35.0N  48.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 36.5N  43.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JULIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED\r\nNORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nCONTINUED TO WARM.  JULIA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER WATERS OF\r\n26-27C...AND THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW BETWEEN JULIA AND\r\nHURRICANE IGOR IS IMPARTING 20 TO 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nJULIA ACCORDING TO THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS.  BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 20 KT FROM 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS...JULIA WILL REMAIN OVER MARGINAL SSTS THROUGH THAT\r\nTIME.  THEN BY 36 HOURS OR SO...WHEN JULIA TEMPORARILY MOVES BACK\r\nOVER WARMER WATERS...THE SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 30 KT AND\r\nREMAINS HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH MORE\r\nRAPID WEAKENING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREFLECT THIS AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nWITH A LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/16 IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY\r\nAND THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED SOUTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  JULIA IS CURRENTLY\r\nBEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST\r\nAND A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...AS JULIA MOVES AWAY FROM THE\r\nUPPER-LOW...THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE RIDGE AND TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS\r\nIT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  SOME\r\nDIFFERENCES REMAIN IN HOW SHARPLY JULIA MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE...\r\nWITH THE UKMET SHOWING A SHARPER TURN...WHILE THE ECMWF AND HWRF\r\nSHOW A WIDER TURN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD\r\nTHE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HOURS...WHICH REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF AND UKMET. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...ACCOUNTING FOR THE\r\nOBSERVED ACCELERATION OF JULIA.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 21.2N  36.2W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 22.8N  38.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 24.6N  42.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 26.4N  45.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 28.3N  47.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 32.5N  49.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 35.0N  46.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 36.0N  42.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS IN\r\nTHE RATHER RAGGED LOOKING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. A 1001Z AMSU\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A 25-30 NMI DIAMETER EYE THAT WAS OPEN\r\nIN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LARGE\r\nSLUG OF DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH\r\nLIKELY EXPLAINS THE EROSION OF THE EASTERN EYEWALL NOTED IN THE\r\nAMSU IMAGERY. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED NEGATIVE FACTORS...JULIA\r\nHAS MAINTAINED GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS INCREASED SHARPLY TO 300/22. JULIA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWEST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST. AFTER THAT...SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR MAY WEAKEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND CAUSE IT TO BECOME MORE SHALLOW...AND THEN BE\r\nSTEERED MORE NORTHWARD SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODELS...BUT\r\nNOT AS FAR NORTH AND WEST AS THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDRY AIR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD CONTINUE THE RECENT WEAKENING\r\nTREND...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS. BY 36-48 HOURS...ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JULIA WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CAUSED BY THE PRONOUNCED NORTHERLY OUTFLOW\r\nEMANATING FROM THE MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR LOCATED TO ITS WEST. WITH\r\nJULIA MOVING INTO 50-70 KT OF 200 MB WINDS...IT WILL BE HARD FOR\r\nJULIA TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND GFDL/HWRF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nA FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS\r\nFAST AS THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH DISSIPATES JULIA BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 22.4N  38.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 23.7N  41.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 25.5N  44.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 27.3N  47.3W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 29.3N  49.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 33.2N  49.6W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 35.8N  46.3W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 38.0N  42.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE ABATED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH A 1533\r\nUTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWING THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTERS ARE JUST ABOUT VERTICALLY STACKED.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED...AND SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nNOW 77 KT FROM TAFB...65 KT FROM SAB...AND 65 KT AND 80 KT FROM TWO\r\nVERSIONS OF THE UW-CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE\r\nLOWERED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nJULIA HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/22 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN NEARLY ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE ON THIS\r\nCYCLE...POSSIBLY DUE TO A STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED MID-LEVEL HIGH TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN\r\nOFCI AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.  SEVERAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE\r\nUKMET AND ECMWF...ARE EVEN FARTHER WEST THAN THIS TRACK SO IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL SHIFTS COULD BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT FEW\r\nADVISORY PACKAGES.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT AFTER JULIA\r\nMOVES NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE \r\nEAST OF IGOR IN ABOUT 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWITH THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...JULIA APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE A BETTER CHANCE TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE BATTLING THE STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF IGOR DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT\r\nAFTER THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT JULIA COULD SNEAK\r\nUNDERNEATH THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PARTIALLY GENERATED BY IGOR.\r\nTHE SHEAR COULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE MORE\r\nMODEST WEAKENING...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT\r\nHIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 36-72 HOURS.  INCIDENTALLY... THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS STILL LOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE LGEM...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 23.1N  41.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 24.2N  43.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N  47.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 27.9N  49.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 30.1N  51.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 34.0N  50.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 37.0N  47.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF JULIA BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nFOR A PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF COLD\r\nCLOUDS TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS DECREASED IN SIZE.\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 70 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT\r\nJULIA WILL BE ENTERING AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR VERY SHORTLY.\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES 30-40 KT WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  DURING THIS TIME JULIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS.  IF JULIA SURVIVES THE\r\nSTRONG SHEAR...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT COULD IMPROVE BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS.  DURING THAT TIME\r\nONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN. IN 4-5 DAYS...JULIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF IGOR. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nJULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 290/21 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nAS JULIA WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nAGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE\r\nNEW FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS...WHICH IS ALONG THE EAST EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 23.5N  42.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 24.6N  45.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 26.3N  48.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 28.6N  50.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 31.0N  52.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 35.0N  50.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 39.0N  46.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nUP UNTIL THE LAST HOUR...JULIA HAD EXHIBITED A SMALL BUT WELL-\r\nDEFINED EYE WITH A SOLID EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE 77 KT...WITH ADT VALUES USING AN EYE PATTERN SUPPORTING\r\nANYWHERE FROM 75-85 KT. GIVEN THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED...\r\nTHE INITIAL WINDS ARE ONLY INCREASED TO THE LOWER END OF THOSE\r\nESTIMATES...75 KT. THE HURRICANE IS IN A SMALL LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nTO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...JULIA IS ABOUT TO ENCOUNTER\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL JET...PART OF THE OUTFLOW FROM IGOR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nINDUCE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF WEAKENING. JULIA\r\nSHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN JET CORE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS...\r\nCAUSING THE SHEAR TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT...BUT SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nSTILL EXPECTED.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...VERY STRONG\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE RAPID DISSIPATION.\r\nTHE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...BUT BELOW MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nJULIA CONTINUES TO MOVE 290/21.  THE HURRICANE APPEARS TO BE\r\nLEAVING THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\n...AND BECOMING MOSTLY STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN.  JULIA SHOULD GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AND EVENTUALLY TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...PERHAPS DUE TO THE\r\nFAST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND UNFORESEEN IMPACTS OF THE MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AGAIN\r\n...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 23.8N  45.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N  47.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 27.2N  50.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 29.7N  51.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 32.4N  52.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 36.0N  49.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  44.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n\r\nJULIA IS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT IS\r\nDISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  USING A\r\nBLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 75 KT\r\nFOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE\r\nINCREASING NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMASSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR.  GIVEN THE\r\nHIGH AMOUNT OF SHEAR EXPECTED TO IMPACT JULIA...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SOMEWHAT FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE MODELS LGEM AND\r\nSHIPS.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS\r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DEPICT JULIA BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN\r\nTHE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF IGOR.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT\r\nAND IS NOW 285/17.  THE HURRICANE HAS MOVED UNEXPECTEDLY FAR TO THE\r\nWEST...LIKELY BECAUSE THE STEERING EFFECTS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE\r\nTO THE SOUTH WERE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. \r\nNONETHELESS...JULIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 24.2N  46.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 25.8N  48.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 28.3N  51.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 30.9N  52.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 33.2N  51.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 36.4N  48.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julia","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nAT TIMES IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO\r\nBECOME EXPOSED.  USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS LEADS TO A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KT.  THE\r\nSHEAR...WHICH IS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MASSIVE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN OF HURRICANE IGOR...IS NOT LIKELY TO RELENT.  IN FACT...\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BECOME STRONGER. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING AND IS BASED\r\nON A COMBINATION OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT JULIA WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF\r\nPOST-TROPICAL IGOR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 300/18.  THE FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BEFORE GETTING\r\nPULLED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IGOR.  THUS...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...AND NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST.  THIS IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK AND GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 25.2N  48.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 26.9N  50.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 29.6N  51.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 32.5N  52.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  51.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 38.2N  47.2W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 43.0N  43.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nCORRECTED TO ADD IGOR\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF JULIA\r\nJUST BENEATH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD CANOPY. THE SHEARED\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR PRODUCED BY A\r\nSTRONG OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IGOR.  SUBSEQUENT\r\nBANDING CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING...AND THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO\r\n65 AND 60 KT RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT.  THE GLOBAL AND THE SHIPS MODELS ALL\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN BY THE 48 HOUR\r\nPERIOD AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES MORE WESTERLY. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST INDICATES A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND BASED ON THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE...WITH THE CYCLONE ULTIMATELY BECOMING\r\nABSORBED IN 96 HOURS BY THE MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL IGOR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/14.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF JULIA.  THROUGH DAY 3...THE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTERWARD...THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH JULIA BECOMING ABSORBED BY IGOR...GENERALLY IN 96 HOURS...OR\r\nEARLIER...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS AND BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEANS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 26.0N  49.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 28.1N  50.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 31.0N  52.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 33.5N  52.0W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 35.5N  50.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 39.0N  46.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n\r\nSTRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN JULIA.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE DROPPING QUICKLY...AND A BLEND OF THE T/CI NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB AND ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nOF 50 KT. A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY WITH THE STRONG\r\nSHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST.  JULIA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER BECAUSE OF EXPECTED COOL SSTS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS BELOW MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY IGOR IN\r\nABOUT 96 HRS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS\r\nNOW 320/16.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK TODAY...WITH A NORTHWARD TURN TOMORROW AS JULIA\r\nMOVES AROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT JULIA WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM IGOR THAT THE LARGER\r\nHURRICANE WILL NOT HAVE AN IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON THE TRACK OF JULIA. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE RIGHT EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE GFS.  \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 27.4N  50.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 29.5N  51.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 32.3N  52.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 34.5N  51.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 36.0N  49.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 39.5N  44.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY IGOR\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS\r\nDISPLACED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIA TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE NOW EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nARE DECREASING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS WILL ALLOW.  A BLEND OF\r\nT/CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB REPRESENT THE BASIS FOR AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE PERSISTENCE OF STRONG\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF IGOR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND INDICATES JULIA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...JULIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nSOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  ULTIMATELY...THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION OF JULIA COULD BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR AS\r\nIGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT\r\nCOMPARED TO BEFORE AND IS NOW 320/16.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING A TRACK BENDING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nLATER TODAY AND TURNING NORTHWARD TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NEAR\r\nTHE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nBUT SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 28.9N  51.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 31.1N  51.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 33.5N  51.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 35.5N  50.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 37.0N  48.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 40.5N  43.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":27,"Date":"2010-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nJULIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nAND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED EVEN THOUGH REPEATED\r\nBURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION CONTINUE FORMING NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF IT. DESPITE ITS APPEARANCE...RECENT PRESSURE DATA FROM A NUMBER\r\nOF DRIFTING BUOYS NEAR JULIA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA\r\nHAS LIKELY RETAINED ITS VIGOR.  BASED UPON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND\r\nDVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE 2.5 AND 3.5 AT 1800 UTC FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE INTENSITY OF JULIA IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.  SHIPS MODEL\r\nOUTPUT SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM\r\nHURRICANE IGOR INCREASING FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE\r\nJULIA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE COMBINATION OF\r\nTHESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN LINE\r\nWITH THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  JULIA IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION OF JULIA IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED BY LARGE HURRICANE\r\nIGOR AS IGOR UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK OF JULIA CONTINUES BENDING TO THE RIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 330/17.  JULIA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH BY TONIGHT AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN\r\nNORTHEAST TOMORROW AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nUKMET SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS LIKE AN OUTLIER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nFAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTER AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  \r\nTHE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE NEAR THE THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND IT CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE\r\nUKMET.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 30.6N  51.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 32.6N  52.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  51.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 36.4N  49.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 38.0N  47.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":28,"Date":"2010-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA HAS MOVED INTO A REGION OF WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS AND VERY COLD TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS A RESULT. SATELLITE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND ADT VALUES OF T3.4/43 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nGIVEN THE NEW DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF THE THREE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nJULIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING\r\nAT 360/12. JULIA EARLIER ACCELERATED NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT\r\nDURING THE PERIOD WHEN IT POSSESSED NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS REFORMED...THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS LIKELY DEEPENED IN THE VERTICAL AND WILL BE SUBJECT\r\nTO A DEEPER AND SLOWER STEERING FLOW. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON JULIA MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nAND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST.\r\nBY 48 HOURS...A SEVERELY WEAKENED AND SHALLOW JULIA AT THAT TIME IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE VERY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN AND TVCC.\r\n\r\nWEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT JULIA HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD INTO A REGION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR OF 30-50 KT\r\nEMANATING FROM THE MASSIVE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR IN 6-12\r\nHOURS. BY 24 HOURS...JULIA WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C\r\nSSTS...WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nSHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING. JULIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...WHICH DISSIPATE JULIA BY AROUND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 32.4N  51.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 34.3N  51.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 36.1N  50.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 37.6N  48.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 39.1N  46.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 43.6N  41.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":29,"Date":"2010-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n \r\nSOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY...THE ASCAT PASS AT 0106Z OVER JULIA SHOWED 50\r\nTO 55 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WAS\r\nAT LEAST 55 KT AROUND 0000Z GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT.\r\nSINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND THE CDO HAS BECOME\r\nFRAGMENTED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM\r\nTAFB AND 2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM SAB.  THE INTENSITY WAS SET AT\r\n50 KT AT THE SYNOPTIC TIME AND IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OF JULIA IS 355 DEGREES AT 14 KT...WHICH IS FAIRLY WELL\r\nKNOWN DUE TO AN 0506Z AQUA PASS THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED. THE CYCLONE\r\nIS IN THE PROCESS OF RECURVING AROUND THE DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST. A MODEST DECELERATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS AS JULIA TURNS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE FAIRLY\r\nCLUSTERED MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE MODEST REINTENSIFICATION OF JULIA IS NOT LIKELY TO BE REPEATED. \r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE\r\nBEING BLUDGEONED BY ABOUT 50 KT UPPER TROPOSPHERIC NORTHWESTERLIES. \r\nGRADUAL DECAY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AFTER WHICH\r\nJULIA SHOULD BE ABSORBED INTO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF IGOR. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH APPEARS TO\r\nHOLD ON TO A ROBUST CYCLONE FOR TOO LONG.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE WIND\r\nRADII UTILIZED IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 33.6N  51.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 35.7N  51.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 36.8N  49.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 37.7N  47.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 39.5N  45.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":30,"Date":"2010-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA HAS HAD ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T3.0/45 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE STORM IS AGAIN RUNNING INTO\r\nSTRONG SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR AND SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN SOON.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW FASTER WEAKENING THAN\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH SHOULD\r\nHAVE A BETTER REPRESENTATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE\r\nPATTERN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS...AND INDICATES JULIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nOR REMNANT LOW IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE\r\nCENTER OF JULIA HAS BEEN RELOCATED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION HAS VEERED QUICKLY TO 065 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  JULIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN\r\nSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THE\r\nADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION BEING FARTHER SOUTH...THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 34.2N  50.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 34.9N  48.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 35.6N  46.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 36.2N  44.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 37.5N  42.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":31,"Date":"2010-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n \r\nSINCE THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF JULIA HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  AMSU AND ASCAT\r\nESTIMATES FROM AROUND 1200 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMORE STRONGLY SHEARED.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY DECREASING\r\nT-NUMBERS.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS STILL SHOW QUICKER WEAKENING\r\nTHAN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  JULIA WILL BE BATTLING VERY STRONG\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IT SHOULD TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE\r\nCIRCULATION TO SPIN DOWN.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATE WITHIN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF IGOR IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAFTER TAKING A SUDDEN AND QUICK JUMP TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS\r\nMORNING...JULIA HAS SETTLED ON A MOTION OF ABOUT 50 DEGREES AT 12\r\nKT.  THE UKMET...GFDL...AND GFDN SEEM TO UNREALISTICALLY TURN JULIA\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE OTHER MAJOR DYNAMICAL MODELS. \r\nTHIS TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 34.8N  49.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 35.4N  48.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 36.3N  46.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 37.7N  44.4W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":32,"Date":"2010-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A POORLY ORGANIZED BAND WELL\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 35 KT...USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. \r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  JULIA IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AS IT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER 25 C\r\nWATERS BY THAT TIME...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n\r\nA 1958 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND A 2307 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS HAVE BEEN\r\nHELPFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JULIA...WHICH IS VERY\r\nNEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n055/11...USING A BLEND OF SATELLITE FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMICROWAVE DATA.  JULIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 35.2N  48.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 36.8N  45.7W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 38.0N  43.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":33,"Date":"2010-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010\r\n \r\nJULIA AGAIN PROVIDED A SURPRISE FOR A SECOND NIGHT IN A ROW WITH\r\nSTRONGER SURFACE WINDS MEASURED FROM THE ASCAT SCATTEROMETER THAN\r\nWHAT WAS SUGGESTED FROM CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY USING THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE.  THE 0046Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT\r\nLEAST 45 KT...DESPITE A FAIRLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE 0600Z TAFB AND SAB DATA-T DVORAK NUMBERS REMAIN AT\r\nA 2.0...OR 30 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT...ASSUMING\r\nSOME WEAKENING SINCE THE ASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED WEST OF THE LIMITED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY\r\nEXTREMELY LARGE HURRICANE IGOR. THE INITIAL MOTION OF JULIA IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING\r\nADVECTED AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE SOME TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AROUND 36 HOURS...JULIA\r\nSHOULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IGOR AS SHOWN BY\r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS THE\r\nCYCLONE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF IGOR TO PREVENT THE ABSORPTION.\r\nINSTEAD...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS JULIA AS A SEPARATE CYCLONE FOR\r\nSEVERAL MORE DAYS...THOUGH BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL ABOUT TWO DAYS\r\nFROM NOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST GOES WITH THE CONSENSUS...MINUS THE\r\nECMWF...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAS JULIA SHOULD GRADUALLY ENCOUNTER SUB-26C WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG\r\nWITH QUITE HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nFOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBASED UPON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER INITIAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALLOWED FOR AN ENLARGEMENT OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WIND RADII. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 35.5N  47.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 36.1N  46.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 37.6N  45.3W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 39.6N  43.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":34,"Date":"2010-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL122010\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 20 2010\r\n \r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY\r\nTHE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IGOR...WITH THE COLDEST TOPS NOW A COUPLE\r\nOF HUNDRED MILES AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0046Z\r\nLAST NIGHT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION WAS BECOMING ELONGATED EVEN\r\nTHEN...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT JULIA IS LOSING\r\nSOME DEFINITION AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES...THIS\r\nWILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JULIA IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS MOVING AT 090/8.  THE 00Z ECMWF HANDLED\r\nTHE OVERNIGHT MOTION OF JULIA BEST...WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE WELL\r\nTO THE LEFT AND SHOWING MORE OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION\r\nOF IGOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF GUIDANCE WITH A\r\nFORECAST MOTION SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE SHEAR OVER\r\nJULIA ELEVATED...AND GIVEN THE MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...\r\nPREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM REDEVELOPING ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  IF\r\nPRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...THE CIRCULATION OF JULIA WILL BECOME\r\nILL-DEFINED WITHIN A FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THAT\r\nSCENARIO IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT JULIA COULD REMAIN WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO LINGER AND\r\nMOVE EASTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE\r\nECMWF.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 34.7N  46.4W    40 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 34.9N  45.3W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 35.5N  43.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOUND A SMALL AND\r\nVIGOROUS WIND/PRESSURE CENTER INSIDE THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 41 KT AT LESS THAN 1500 FT JUST\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE SFMR ESTIMATED RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS\r\nOF 35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVY RAIN AREAS.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED\r\nSTRAIGHT TO TROPICAL STORM KARL WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13.  KARL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nA DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD STEER\r\nKARL GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nMOTION TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECASTING A SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION BEFORE KARL REACHES THE\r\nCOAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 72 HR...AND OVERALL IT LIES DOWN THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nKARL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...\r\nAND THIS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS.  THE MAJOR\r\nINFLUENCE ON THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  WHILE THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS KARL WITH 45-KT WINDS OVER EASTERN\r\nYUCATAN...THE STORM COULD REACH A HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN THE 12\r\nAND 24 HR FORECAST POINTS.  OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...KARL SHOULD\r\nRE-INTENSIFY...WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CALLING FOR IT TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL\r\nWILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER FINAL\r\nLANDFALL IN MEXICO...KARL SHOULD EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 18.3N  84.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N  86.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.6N  88.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N  92.6W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N  96.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  99.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KARL\r\nEARLIER THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT\r\nAND SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 34-39 KT SFMR SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER AS IT EXITED THE STORM.  THESE DATA WERE THE BASIS FOR\r\nTHE INCREASE IN INTENSITY IN THE 0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.\r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT\r\nTIME...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH KARL\r\nAROUND 0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND A COUPLE OF RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SMALL\r\nMASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME LIGHT\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE\r\nINHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE\r\nBEFORE KARL REACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WATERS ARE WARM AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE\r\nGFDL...LGEM...SHIPS...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW KARL\r\nAT HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT\r\nWHAT KIND OF STRUCTURE KARL WILL HAVE AFTER CROSSING THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA...HOWEVER GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AND MODEL\r\nAGREEMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KARL TO HURRICANE STATUS\r\nAT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/13.  THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED.  KARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH INCREASED SPREAD THEREAFTER...AS SOME OF THE\r\nMODELS TURN KARL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR THE COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 18.6N  85.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N  87.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N  91.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N  93.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  96.7W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 100.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n400 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010\r\n\r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING KARL EARLY\r\nTHIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT SINCE\r\nTHE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 995 MB AND THE MAXIMUM UNCONTAMINATED\r\nSFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND VELOCITIES WERE ABOUT 55 KT...WHICH IS\r\nTHE VALUE USED FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT A RATHER SYMMETRICAL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nIS DEVELOPING OVER KARL...SO SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION COULD\r\nOCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  FORTUNATELY...THE TIME IS SHORT BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER SHOULD CROSS THE COAST.\r\n \r\nKARL WOBBLED WESTWARD A FEW HOURS AGO BUT THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES\r\nINDICATE THAT A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AROUND 285/11...HAS\r\nRESUMED.  BASED ON GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD TRACK APPEARS LIKELY...WHICH WOULD TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 18.5N  86.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.1N  88.3W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N  90.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N  92.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.3N  94.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  97.2W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC.  BEFORE LANDFALL...\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55\r\nKT.  BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.\r\nDATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING\r\nAN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO\r\nSUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nDEPARTED.\r\n\r\nKARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12.  KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN\r\nTHE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.\r\n\r\nKARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES\r\nWATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY\r\nALL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nMAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS\r\nSECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO\r\nBY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 18.6N  88.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N  91.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.9N  93.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N  95.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  98.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n400 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010\r\n\r\nKARL IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR\r\nINDICATE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG CONVECTION...BUT\r\nTHIS IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THERE ARE\r\nNO OBSERVATION AVAILABLE NEAR THE CORE...AND THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF INDICATING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION ON THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDN A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION ON THE LEFT.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW\r\nFORECAST KARL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION BEFORE REACHING THE COAST\r\nOF MAINLAND MEXICO...AND ALSO FORECAST A TURN TO SOUTH OF WEST\r\nMOTION NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nREFLECTS BOTH OF THESE POSSIBILITIES...WITH THE NEW TRACK BEING\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER\r\n36 HR.\r\n \r\nKARL IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT\r\nREACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 12 HR. \r\nONCE THE CENTER REACHES WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY ALL GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE HWRF...WHILE FORECASTING STRENGTHENING...HAS CONSISTENTLY\r\nKEPT KARL AT LESS THAN HURRICANE STRENGTH.  GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KARL TO\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n70 KT...BUT KARL COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN THAT BETWEEN THE 48 AND\r\n72 HR FORECAST POINTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 19.0N  89.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N  90.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N  92.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.1N  94.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.3N  95.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N  98.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n1000 PM CDT WED SEP 15 2010\r\n \r\nDESPITE KARL BEING OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nCONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE. THERE IS A RING OF\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A CLEAR AREA WHICH RESEMBLES AN\r\nEYE FEATURE...PROBABLY INDICATING THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL\r\nVIGOROUS AT THE MID-LEVELS. HOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO RAINBANDS MAINLY OVER WATER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. GIVEN THE OUTSTANDING STRUCTURE ON\r\nSATELLITE AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION WHICH\r\nPREVAILS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES BACK OVER\r\nWATER. KARL IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ\r\nWITHIN THE WATCH AREA AS A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS VERY AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING KARL.\r\n \r\nKARL APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES\r\nAT 13 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE KARL ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE\r\nFORECAST KEEPS KARL OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BRINGS KARL TO THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING KARL ANCHORED IN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN GULF SOUTH OF 22 DEGREES NORTH.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 19.4N  90.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N  92.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N  93.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  95.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  97.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 21.0N 102.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n400 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KARL EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 0330 AND\r\n0400 UTC AFTER MAINTAINING AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER\r\nLAND...WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE\r\n3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FOR THIS ADVISORY THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE\r\nWIND FIELD WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SPIN UP AFTER MOVING OVER WATER. \r\nKARL SEEMS POISED TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nVERY WARM WATERS AND LOW SHEAR OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ALSO...\r\nGIVEN THE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...KARL WILL\r\nLIKELY HAVE MORE TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN MEXICO. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT AROUND THE\r\nTIME OF LANDFALL...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 KT.  KARL WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL RETROGRADE FROM THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THIS WILL STEER KARL WILL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND\r\nBRING THE CYCLONE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WATCH\r\nAREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.  WHILE THE MODELS REMAIN IN\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS\r\nCYCLE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF...HAS SLOWED\r\nAND SHIFTED SOUTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION AND LIES BETWEEN THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS AND THE TVCN\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK...\r\nTHE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO PALMA SOLA.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N  91.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.3N  93.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.7N  94.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N  97.4W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 100.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-16 12:30:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n730 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT KARL WAS\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY ABOUT 30 N MI.  THE PLANE\r\nMEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR\r\nWINDS SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  THIS SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO SHIFT THE FIRST 36-48 HR OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD AND TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1230Z 19.7N  92.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.1N  93.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N  94.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.8N  96.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 21.0N 103.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n1000 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 76 KT IN A DEVELOPING EYEWALL...WITH\r\nSURFACE WINDS ESTIMATES OF 60-65 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 983 MB.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 77 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...KARL IS UPGRADED TO\r\nA 65-KT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL\r\nSHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nFOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 36 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. \r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS...\r\nALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH KARL COULD\r\nGET BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSTEADILY...AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM MODEL FORECASTS 100 KT\r\nIN 36 HR...THE SHIPS MODEL 85 KT...AND THE GFDL MODEL 97 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A 95 KT INTENSITY AT LANDFALL AS A BLEND\r\nOF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...\r\nAND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 19.7N  92.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  93.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.3N  95.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N  97.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N  98.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 101.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n400 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT KARL IS\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  A DROPSONDE IN THE EYE REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 977 MB...AND THERE WERE TWO SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 69 KT FROM\r\nTHE SFMR.  IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHWESTERN EYEWALL\r\nSUPPORTS 70 KT SURFACE WINDS...AND THE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 83 KT AT 12000 FT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 70 KT.\r\n \r\nKARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 270/10. A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF KARL\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK\r\nFOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HR TO LANDFALL IN MEXICO...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.\r\nOVERALL...THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET\r\nMODELS SHOWING ANY NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...SHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL AND A\r\nSOUTH OF WEST MOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND UKMET MODELS...BUT TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THUS...KARL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSTEADILY AND POSSIBLY RAPIDLY.  THE LGEM...SHIPS...GFDL...AND\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECAST KARL TO BECOME A CATEGORY\r\nTWO HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR A\r\n85 KT LANDFALL INTENSITY AS A BLEND OF THESE FORECASTS.  IT IS NOT\r\nOUT OF THE QUESTION THAT KARL COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES\r\nINTO THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY\r\n96 HR IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS REQUIRED WARNINGS TO BE EXTENDED FARTHER\r\nSOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS COMPARED TO\r\n36 HOURS FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH HAS REDUCED THE AMOUNT\r\nOF TIME AVAILABLE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 19.6N  93.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N  94.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n1000 PM CDT THU SEP 16 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nHAVE REACHED T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE OR 90 KNOTS AT\r\n0000 UTC. SINCE THEN THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DISTINCT...\r\nSURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE CROSSED THE EYE A FEW TIMES THIS EVENING.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE DROPPED TO 968 MB AND THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS REACHED 90\r\nKNOTS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ACCOMPANIED BY SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF\r\n85 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 85 KNOTS.  THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THAT THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS WE SPEAK. KARL HAS\r\nLESS THAN A DAY BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR KARL TO BE A CATEGORY\r\nTHREE HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL\r\nOVER THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...BUT KARL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS.\r\n \r\nKARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED\r\nSOUTH OF A PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGH THE\r\nENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. DESPITE SOME DIFFERENCES IN SPEED AMONG\r\nMODELS...THE OVERALL MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP KARL ON A STRAIGHT\r\nWESTWARD PATH OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOLLOWED BY A LANDFALL OVER\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATE FRIDAY.\r\nTHIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 19.7N  94.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 19.7N  95.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 19.7N  96.8W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 19.5N  98.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 100.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n400 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WIND OF 105 KT...AN SFMR MAXIMUM OF 86 KT...AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 967 MB AS IT EXITED KARL BEFORE AROUND 0530 UTC.\r\nSINCE THEN...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED BELOW -70C AND\r\nTHE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED...AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T6.0/115 KT AT 0600 UTC.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED AT 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...\r\nASSUMING THAT THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO LAG THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...BUT THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  ANOTHER HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING KARL THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE\r\nADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.  KARL STILL HAS\r\nTHE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER VERY WARM WATERS PRIOR\r\nTO LANDFALL LATER TODAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.\r\nAFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nMEXICO AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE\r\nAFTER THIS TIME OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS WESTWARD...OR 270 DEGREES...AT 8\r\nKNOTS.  KARL WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THERE\r\nREMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE FORWARD SPEED OF\r\nKARL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nSHOWS A WESTWARD MOTION OF 7 TO 8 KNOTS UNTIL LANDFALL LATER TODAY.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 19.7N  95.3W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N  96.3W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 19.5N  99.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 19.4N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nKARL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE 10 NM WIDE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL HAVE WARMED.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN SINCE 12Z...WITH THE LATEST EXTRAPOLATED\r\nPRESSURE OF 967 MB.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nREPORTED AN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND OF 103 KT FROM THE STEPPED\r\nFREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL...WITH\r\n700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT.  THESE DATA ARE THE BASIS FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT.\r\n \r\nKARL HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW 260/7.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS\r\nOF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...KARL SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER...A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL\r\nCONTINUE AFTER THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 19.4N  95.9W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.2N  96.9W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 19.1N  98.2W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 19.1N  99.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 19.1N 101.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karl","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n400 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nKARL MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH-NORTHWEST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AT\r\nABOUT 1630Z.  BEFORE LANDFALL...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RAPIDLY ROSE\r\nFROM 957 MB TO 976 MB OVER A 4.5 HOUR PERIOD FOR REASONS THAT ARE\r\nNOT READILY APPARENT.  DESPITE THIS...THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS\r\nSUPPORTED MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.  SINCE LANDFALL\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS STEADILY WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n80 KT MAY BE A BIT GENEROUS.  KARL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO\r\nDISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER KARL TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 19.1N  96.6W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 18.8N  97.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 18.7N  99.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 18.7N 100.6W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010\r\n \r\nKARL MOVED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND QUICKLY\r\nWEAKENED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN AS WELL AS THE CIRCULATION ARE VERY\r\nDISRUPTED WHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS PRACTICALLY VANISHED. THERE\r\nARE NO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS NEARBY SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF\r\nSTRONG WINDS BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30\r\nKNOTS...WITH PERHAPS STRONGER WIND GUSTS AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  \r\nKARL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6\r\nKNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR LESS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 18.6N  97.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 18.1N  98.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL132010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010\r\n400 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT KARL HAS\r\nDISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  A FEW\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 18.5N  97.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 20 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED\r\nABOUT 450 N MI WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED\r\nENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...THE FOURTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT AND 30\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 30 KT.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY\r\nAND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5...BASED MAINLY ON SATELLITE\r\nFIXES.  THE DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\nA GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN THE WEAK FLOW.  A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS PROBABLE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS EAST\r\nAND FLATTENS...ALLOWING FOR SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  ANOTHER TROUGH...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO PASS\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL\r\nLIKELY INDUCE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME.  THERE IS A\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT\r\nJUST SOUTH OF STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM COULD INCREASE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SECOND TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 17.1N  31.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N  31.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N  31.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 18.4N  31.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 18.9N  32.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 20.1N  34.4W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N  35.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 23.5N  35.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n\r\nENHANCED INFRARED AND SHORTWAVE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH AN AMSU\r\nOVERPASS..INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE FORMING NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH A BANDING\r\nFEATURE OVER THE EAST SEMICIRCLE HAVE COOLED TO -70 CELSIUS. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.5...35 KT...FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  THESE ESTIMATES ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF 39 KT\r\nSUPPORT AN UPGRADE OF THE DEPRESSION TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM. \r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR IS LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW\r\nAN UPPER ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN\r\nRETROGRADING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE GREATER ANTILLES...AND A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF LISA FILLING AND MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE THE WESTERLY SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIO AND IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...WITHIN THE WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENT ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nENSEMBLES...SUGGEST A RATHER SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS.  BY DAY 2...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS\r\nINDICATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NHC OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE\r\nMODELS...AND IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 17.7N  31.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.0N  31.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.4N  31.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 18.7N  31.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 19.0N  32.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 19.8N  34.3W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N  35.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N  37.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER NOTED IN A 21/0932Z SSMIS OVERPASS. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING TO THE NORTH\r\nAND SOUTH OF LISA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40\r\nKT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/45 KT.\r\n\r\nAFTER A BRIEF JOG TO THE NORTHEAST A FEW HOURS AGO...LISA HAS\r\nRESUMED A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4. LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 36-48 HOURS...\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LISA IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN AND\r\nFORCE THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS TAKING LISA\r\nDUE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE NOGAPS/GFDN\r\nMODELS MOVE LISA DUE WEST. THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nSPREAD OUT EVENLY BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. SUCH A LARGE SPREAD\r\nIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TYPICALLY SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION\r\nWILL BE RELATIVELY SLOW...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST\r\nPACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR ABOUT THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS...THE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING LISA\r\nIS FORECAST TO DRY OUT CONSIDERABLY AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP\r\nBELOW 27C. THE DRIER AIR AND COOLER WATER MAY PUT THE BREAKS ON THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n48-72 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE\r\nEFFECTS OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDIGS SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT MOVE LISA NORTH OF\r\n20N LATITUDE...WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nBENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FROM 72-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 18.1N  31.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.3N  31.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 18.7N  31.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 19.0N  32.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 19.4N  33.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 20.1N  34.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 20.9N  35.8W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 21.0N  37.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\n\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nAFTER A SHORT-LIVED DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...A BURST\r\nOF STRONG CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT TRMM AND AMSU MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES INDICATE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE\r\nTIGHTENED UP AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED. UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.4/53 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/2. LISA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN\r\nA NORTH AND NORTHEAST DIRECTION...PROBABLY DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE SYSTEM CENTER. NOW THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS APPEAR TO\r\nBE MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED...HOPEFULLY THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS\r\nSCATTER IN THE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. LISA IS EXPECTED REMAIN IN\r\nVERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOWLY LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF LISA...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WIDELY DIVERGENT BETWEEN THE NORTHWARD HWRF\r\nAND THE WESTWARD GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT FOR THE NEXT \r\n48 HOURS...WHICH USUALLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.\r\nHOWEVER...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO DECREASE WITH HUMIDITY\r\nLEVELS BELOW 40 PERCENT AFTER 24 HOURS. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF DRY\r\nAIR...JULIA IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE IMPROVED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. GIVEN THAT A 75-PERCENT EYEWALL\r\nFEATURE EXISTED 6 HRS AGO AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY COOLED TO\r\nBELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION CAN\r\nNOT BE RULED OUT. THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO KEEP LISA SOUTH OF\r\n20N LATITUDE AND BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 18.3N  31.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 18.6N  31.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 19.0N  31.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 19.3N  32.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 19.7N  33.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 20.4N  34.7W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 21.0N  36.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.0N  38.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n  \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS\r\nGENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SOME.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...\r\nAND THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nLISA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS IT REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nOVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 27 C. WESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH DRY\r\nAIR...SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...GIVEN THE APPARENTLY FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THEN FOLLOWS A\r\nBLEND OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. \r\n\r\nLISA APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED TO THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/2. \r\nTHE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A\r\nLARGE AND AMPLIFIED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  A\r\nSLOW AND LIKELY ERRATIC NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN\r\nPLACE.  BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF LISA.  THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN POOR AGREEMENT AND THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 18.2N  31.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 18.3N  31.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 18.5N  31.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 18.7N  31.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.1N  32.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.7N  33.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N  35.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 21.0N  38.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LISA.  THE\r\nCYCLONE CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL MASS OF PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nALTHOUGH WITH FEWER BANDING FEATURES THAN YESTERDAY.  SEVERAL RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS\r\nARE NOT CO-LOCATED...A SIGN THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEING IMPACTED BY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC ARE AT 2.5 AND\r\n3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES\r\nIS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT RECENT MICROWAVE AND\r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT IT BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  A SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION FROM THESE FIXES\r\nYIELDS AN ESTIMATE OF 060/4.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nFAIRLY DIVERGENT BUT GENERALLY SHOWS LISA DRIFTING SOUTH OR EAST IN\r\nA REGION OF WEAK STEERING DURING THE 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A TURN\r\nTOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AS A\r\nWEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE STORM.  GIVEN THE\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nREMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND IS SLOWED FURTHER UNTIL A MORE\r\nESTABLISHED TREND IS EVIDENT IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF LISA\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT IN 24-48 HOURS.  THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN\r\nIMPARTING A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE STORM...BUT SHIPS MODEL\r\nOUTPUT INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG\r\nDURING THIS TIME.  AFTER ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST A STRENGTHENING OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER\r\nLISA...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  OF COURSE...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON\r\nWHERE LISA IS LOCATED AT THAT TIME...AND THE GREATER THAN NORMAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY REGARDING ITS FORECAST TRACK MAKES THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST DIFFICULT.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A BIT DOWNWARD BEFORE 72 HOURS BUT REMAINS AT OR\r\nABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL OUTPUT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 18.0N  30.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 18.0N  30.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.9N  30.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 17.8N  30.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 17.8N  30.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 18.5N  32.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N  35.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  38.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010\r\n \r\nLISA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER...BUT MUCH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED AROUND\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0/45\r\nKT AND 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  A FEW MICROWAVE PASSES...PARTICULARLY A\r\n0919 UTC SSMIS PASS...INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF LISA HAS DRIFTED\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW LOCATED JUST A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 125 DEGREES AT 3 KT.  LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY\r\nLITTLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS TRAPPED IN A\r\nMID-LEVEL COL REGION BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST OVER AFRICA...A\r\nRIDGE TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND A SHARP TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTH BETWEEN THE AZORES AND CANARY ISLANDS.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS EUROPE\r\nAND THE AFRICAN RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD...NUDGING LISA A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER WEST OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO... AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED WITHIN THE COL...THE SHEAR\r\nDIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER IS RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS A LOT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AROUND LISA...AND THAT COULD BE\r\nWHAT IS PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS\r\nRELATIVELY LOW...BUT INCREASING SHEAR AFTER THAT TIME SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER\r\n48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH HAS AGAIN BEEN\r\nLOWERED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 17.1N  30.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 17.1N  30.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N  30.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.0N  30.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  31.3W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N  33.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 20.0N  35.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  38.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010\r\n \r\nLISA HAS A ROBUST CIRCULATION...BUT ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nLIMITED TO NEAR THE CENTER.  THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOUR HOURS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 40 KT.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSURROUNDED BY MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND IS LOCATED OVER AN AREA WHERE\r\nTHE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IS RATHER LOW.  THEREFORE ONLY A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS...WHEN CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.  WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED FROM DAYS 3-5 AS 30-40 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST INDICATES LISA BECOMING A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAY 5...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD\r\nHAVE DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nLISA HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALL DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 090/3 BASED ON A 12-18 HOUR AVERAGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT LISA COULD DRIFT A LITTLE FARTHER EASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN WEAK STEERING FLOW...BUT IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PICK UP SOME SPEED AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS\r\nAS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AFRICA BUILDS WESTWARD.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nABOUT 2 DEGREES FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 17.7N  30.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.6N  29.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.8N  29.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.1N  30.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 18.6N  31.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.1N  32.7W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  35.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 24.0N  38.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 22 2010\r\n \r\nLISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  A 2340 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 30 KT\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS.  LISA COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATER AND IN LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...WESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAND THAT SHOULD PROMOTE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nLISA HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/4.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY\r\nCONTINUE TO MEANDER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS\r\nCAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS NEAR THE BASE OF A SHARP\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH CUTS-OFF AND SOME RIDGING DEVELOPS\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 17.7N  29.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.8N  29.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.0N  29.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 18.4N  30.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.1N  31.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  32.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 23.0N  35.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 25.5N  38.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM PRIMARILY\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER BUT GENERALLY LACK MUCH\r\nORGANIZATION. THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH LISA HAS ALSO BECOME\r\nMORE ASYMMETRIC DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS AND SEEMS PARTIALLY\r\nINVOLVED WITH A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 0600 UTC HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO 1.5 AND 2.5...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED UPON THESE\r\nESTIMATES AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. AS LISA ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nNEARBY MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nSOME MINOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK ARE MARGINALLY WARM...THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS NOT\r\nESPECIALLY HIGH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SOMEWHAT\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A NEW UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF LISA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND RESULT IN WEAKENING WHICH\r\nCOULD OCCUR FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS AND IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nLISA HAS CONTINUED MOVING EASTWARD IN A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04.  AS THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IMPARTING THIS MOTION LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING\r\nNORTH OF LISA WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN\r\nREASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL/\r\nHWRF CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT OUTLIERS AS A RESULT OF WEAKER RIDGING.\r\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...DOWNPLAYING THE\r\nCONTRIBUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 17.7N  29.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 18.1N  29.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 18.5N  29.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 19.1N  30.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 20.0N  31.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 21.5N  32.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 26.0N  38.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 23 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED AND BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nLISA. A 23/0907Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAD FORMED AND WRAPPED BETTER THAN HALF\r\nWAY AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...T1.5/25 FROM SAB.\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT T3.3/51 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 30 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THE RECENT\r\nUPWARD TREND NOTED IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE DATA.\r\n\r\nLISA HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD...BUT A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OF\r\n360/02 IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THE ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGING LISA EASTWARD THE PAST FEW DAYS IS BEGINNING TO SHOW\r\nSIGNS OF SLOWLY LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO\r\nFILL IN AND BEGIN TO STEER LISA TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS\r\nDEVELOPING SCENARIO AND SHOWS LESS SPREAD THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OF ADVISORY TRACK...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT\r\nSIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY ARE MOVING AWAY FROM LISA...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN HAS IMPROVED. HOWEVER...THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS PROBLEMATIC IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nPROCESS. THE LOWEST SHEAR AND BEST MOISTURE PROFILES FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT LISA DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...COOLER\r\nSSTS...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF ANOTHER\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING\r\nTREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND A BLEND OF NHC INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 17.5N  28.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 18.4N  29.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.2N  29.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N  30.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 20.8N  31.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  32.2W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 24.2N  35.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 26.5N  37.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA A FEW HOURS AGO GAVE US A HINT THAT LISA WAS BECOMING\r\nA LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND NOW CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER WITH FAIR OUTFLOW.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.5 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS AND LISA HAS ONCE AGAIN REACHED\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY OF 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS FOR LISA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nLISA HAS BEEN MEANDERING OR NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nAND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE TRAPPED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOUR OR SO.  THE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AS A SHARP TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVES\r\nOUT OF THE AREA.  THIS NEW STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE LISA ON A\r\nGENERAL NORTH TO NORTHWEST TRACK DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. TRACK\r\nMODEL OUTPUT RESEMBLES A FAN...WITH TRACKS VARYING FROM THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE LARGE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 17.5N  28.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N  28.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N  28.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 20.5N  29.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 22.0N  30.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 24.0N  32.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 26.0N  34.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 28.5N  36.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 23 2010\r\n \r\nOVERALL...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF LISA IS LESS ORGANIZED THAN\r\nEARLIER WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION WEAKENING AND THUNDERSTORMS IN\r\nOUTER BANDS ON THE INCREASE.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED...\r\nHOWEVER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nBEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LOWER THAN\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS\r\nFORECAST IN 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT\r\nHAPPENED SOONER.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  MORE RECENTLY...\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE LEFT HAS OCCURRED...WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 020/4.  THE\r\nTRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nBY LATE TOMORROW AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF LISA.\r\nMOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS ARE BECOMING BETTER CLUSTERED ON THIS\r\nSOLUTION...THOUGH THE HWRF/GFDL ARE A LOT FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN\r\nTHE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE\r\nRIGHT...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE....GENERALLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 18.1N  28.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.7N  28.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.0N  28.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 21.4N  29.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 22.8N  30.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 25.5N  32.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  34.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  36.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED\r\nAROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LISA IN RECENT HOURS AS CONVECTION\r\nIN A BAND WELL NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS GENERALLY BEEN\r\nDECREASING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION...THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN\r\nORGANIZATION. DVORAK CI NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 2.0 AND 2.5\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR KEEPING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT. THE POSSIBILITY OF LISA INTENSIFYING\r\nIS DECREASING. IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO REACH AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...\r\nCOOLER WATERS...AND HIGHER STABILITY. THESE FACTORS SHOULD PROMOTE\r\nA STEADY WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE RAPID THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nBUT REMAINS A BIT LOWER THAN MOST OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAN 0349 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE\r\nCENTER OF LISA. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/04. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LISA\r\nMOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST AFRICA. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A WEAKER LISA OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. THE\r\nNEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT BUT NOT AS\r\nFAR EAST AS THE GFDL/HWRF/UKMET WHICH GENERALLY HAVE STRONGER AND\r\nLIKELY UNREALISTIC REPRESENTATIONS OF LISA...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS LEFT OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 18.4N  27.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 19.2N  27.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 20.6N  28.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 22.1N  28.8W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.6N  29.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 26.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 27.5N  32.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND NOW WRAPS ABOUT\r\nTHREE-FOURTHS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED\r\nTO NEAR -80C JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY HAVE BEEN HINTING OF A BANDING-EYE FEATURE TRYING TO FORM.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...TAFB AODT ESTIMATES\r\nOF T3.4/53 KT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.4/53\r\nKT. A 24/1146Z ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED 33-KT WINDS EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT THERE IS PROBABLY SOME UNDER SAMPLING OCCURRING DUE TO\r\nTHE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION. THEREFORE...IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANALYZED.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL FIXES INDICATE LISA IS NOW\r\nMOVING AT ABOUT 360/06. THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE NORTHWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS LISA MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SAHARAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS LISA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER AND\r\nENCOUNTERS MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nDECOUPLE. AS A RESULT... THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED RIGHTWARD\r\nTOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS STILL ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nWHILE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD INTENSIFY MORE THAN FORECAST\r\nBASED ON RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THIS CYCLONE HAS HAD A LONG\r\nHISTORY OF APPEARING TO GET STRONGER...ONLY TO HAVE THE CYCLONE\r\nINGEST DRY AIR NEARBY THAT HAS CAUSED THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO\r\nWEAKEN AND SOMETIMES EVEN DISSIPATE. BY 24 HOURS...LISA IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS BELOW 26C AND ENCOUNTER VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR OF 20-40 KT. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING AND POSSIBLE DISSIPATION IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 18.9N  27.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 19.8N  27.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.2N  28.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 22.9N  28.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.3N  29.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  29.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 28.0N  30.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES LISA HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHENED. A RECENT\r\nTRMM OVERPASS REVEALED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE WITH A DIAMETER OF\r\nABOUT 8-10 NMI...AND VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY HAVE BEEN HINTING\r\nTHAT AN EYE HAS ALSO BEEN TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n50 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...TAFB AODT ESTIMATES OF T3.4/53 KT...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.4/53 KT. GIVEN THE VERY\r\nSMALL SIZE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...WHICH RESTRICTS THE\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY TECHNIQUES...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LISA\r\nCOULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...\r\nLISA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE LARGE SAHARAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. BY 48 HOURS...LISA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC. THE EXPECTED RESULT IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS WILL DECOUPLE IN 72-96 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED BY THE LARGE\r\nSURFACE BERMUDA HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN\r\nCONTRAST...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS MOVE LISA NORTHEASTWARD AFTER\r\n72 HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THOSE SCENARIOS ARE\r\nBEING DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THEIR KNOWN BIAS IN RESISTING\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nNHC CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE CONVECTION OCCURRING AT LEAST 200\r\nNMI TO THE NORTH OF LISA. THIS INDICATES THAT THERE IS AVAILABLE\r\nINSTABILITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO TAP IN TO DESPITE THE SUB-26C SSTS\r\nTHAT LIE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND IT IS \r\nPOSSIBLE THAT LISA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS\r\nLISA IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT...\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. LISA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 120\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AT ALL TIMES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 20.0N  27.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N  28.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N  28.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.1N  28.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N  29.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  29.9W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 29.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-09-24 23:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n700 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nLISA HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL BUT WELL-ORGANIZED EYE SURROUNDED BY A\r\nRING OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C AS SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THIS EYE IS ALSO\r\nCONFIRMED BY A RECENT SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS.  SPECIAL DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM AROUND 2200 UTC BY TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH\r\n4.0...65 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO THAT\r\nVALUE.  LISA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR...BUT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN...THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nNO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2300Z 20.2N  27.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.0N  28.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 22.5N  28.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.1N  28.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 25.3N  29.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.3N  29.9W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 29.0N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF LISA HAS BECOME\r\nOBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASS FROM\r\nAROUND 2300 UTC STILL SHOWED THAT AN EYE WAS PRESENT. SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 65 KT...THOUGH THE DATA-T VALUES\r\nWERE HIGHER...AND THE ADT FROM UW-CIMSS WAS 72 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nWINDS ARE SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 70 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.\r\nLISA BASICALLY HAS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEFT FOR ANY STRENGTHENING\r\nUNTIL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO INCREASE. AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD ALSO INGEST DRIER AIR\r\nAND BE AFFECTED BY COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THUS STEADY WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE LISA IS MUCH STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...\r\nREMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOT FORECAST UNTIL DAY 4...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT\r\nBE SURPRISING FOR IT TO HAPPEN SOONER DUE TO LISA REMAINING OVER\r\nSUB-26C WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 360/7.  THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE\r\nSHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL CYCLES.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W IS\r\nADVANCING CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...LESS RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK RATHER\r\nTHAN NORTHWESTWARD.  AS LONG AS LISA REMAINS A VERTICALLY STACKED\r\nSYSTEM...A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY...SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE GFS AND ITS DEPENDENT MODEL SUITE.  A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS\r\nPOSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nEITHER BE A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATED BY THEN.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...AGAIN...BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 20.7N  27.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 21.9N  28.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 23.7N  28.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 25.0N  28.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 26.4N  28.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 28.5N  29.2W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 30.5N  29.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lisa","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LISA HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nCENTRAL MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nHURRICANE IS LESS SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS EARLIER...AND THE OUTFLOW\r\nHAS BECOME RESTRICTED TO THE WEST. AN 0347 UTC AMSU-B PASS ALSO\r\nINDICATED THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL WERE BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 4.5 AT 0600 UTC FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND A BLEND OF THESE VALUES IS THE BASIS FOR AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.  THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN THE\r\nPROCESS OF INCREASING...AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES SHOW CLOSE TO 20 KT\r\nOF SHEAR. AS THE CYCLONE GAINS LATITUDE IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT\r\nSHOULD ENCOUNTER A FURTHER INCREASE IN THE SHEAR AS WELL AS A\r\nDRIER/MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND A COOLER OCEAN SURFACE.  THESE\r\nFACTORS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY\r\nOCCUR AT A RAPID PACE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE NOW THAT LISA HAS PEAKED AND IS CLOSEST TO\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nLISA APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST WEST OF DUE NORTH...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/08. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nSANDWICHED BETWEEN MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHWEST AFRICA\r\nAND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 35W.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN\r\nSHOULD STEER LISA ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS SO LONG AS IT MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY.  AN\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR A WEAKER LISA...HAVING BECOME A MORE\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM SOONER THAN FORECAST...TO SLOW AND THEN TURN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES AS DEPICTED IN THE UKMET.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nIMMEDIATELY LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 21.6N  28.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 23.1N  28.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 24.7N  28.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 26.1N  28.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  28.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 29.5N  29.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 31.6N  29.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH OUTER BANDING FEATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN\r\nQUADRANTS HAVE ACTUALLY IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS ERODED\r\nSOME DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IMPINGING ON LISA. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB... T2.4/35 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ADT\r\nVALUE OF T3.8/61 KT FROM UW-CIMSS....AND THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nDOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AGAIN.\r\n\r\nLISA IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 350/10. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...LISA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nAFRICA. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...ASSUMING\r\nTHAT LISA MAINTAINS VERTICAL COHERENCE THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n\r\nWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO\r\nABOVE 25 KT BY 24 HOURS AND CONTINUE INCREASE TO NEAR 35 KT BY\r\n36-48 HOURS. THIS UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND. ALTHOUGH LISA IS PRESENTLY\r\nLOCATED OVER RELATIVELY COOL SSTS OF 25.5C...THE CYCLONE IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER ANY COOLER THAN THOSE CURRENT OCEAN\r\nTEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL BY AT LEAST 3 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LISA\r\nTHAN WHAT THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY INGESTING. THE RESULT IS THAT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION COULD PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER...ALBEIT SHEARED TO\r\nTHE EAST...AND PREVENT LISA FROM BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS EARLY AS INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 22.7N  28.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 23.9N  28.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  28.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 26.6N  28.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 27.9N  29.1W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 30.1N  29.6W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 32.0N  30.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS TAKING ITS TOLL ON LISA WITH ITS UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NOW\r\nDISPLACED MORE THAN 100 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS\r\nA RESULT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY\r\nDECREASING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT\r\nIS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES T3.5/55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...T1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...AND AN ADT VALUE OF T3.0/45 KT\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/10. LISA REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS MUCH MORE CONVERGENT\r\nNOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO\r\nMORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD HASTEN THE ONGOING\r\nWEAKENING TREND. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES DISSIPATION BY\r\n48 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DELAYS DISSIPATION DUE TO\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION POSSIBLY KEEPING THE\r\nCIRCULATION ALIVE A LITTLE BIT LONGER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC\r\nOBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 23.7N  28.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 24.7N  28.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 26.1N  28.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 27.4N  29.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 28.6N  29.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 30.7N  30.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 32.5N  30.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT LISA HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...WITH THE CENTER BECOMING\r\nEXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW...AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT. COOL WATERS...DRY AIR...AND\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD FINISH OFF LISA BY MONDAY UNLESS\r\nTHE CYCLONE PULLS ANOTHER SURPRISE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE WEAKENING SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nBASED ON SSMI/S IMAGES FROM EARLIER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nRELOCATED FARTHER WEST...AND IS MOVING AT ABOUT 340/8. A NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN AND RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN AFRICA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nSUCH AS THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE CYCLONE TAKING A TRACK TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...BUT THESE MODELS ALSO HAVE A MUCH MORE\r\nVERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE. SINCE THIS STRUCTURE IS UNLIKELY TO\r\nOCCUR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE. THE NEW FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT THAT\r\nIS MOSTLY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE\r\nVERY SLOWLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE\r\nBUILDS NEAR THE AZORES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 24.3N  29.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.3N  29.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 26.5N  29.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 27.8N  30.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 29.2N  30.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 31.0N  31.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 32.0N  31.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE A TOLL ON LISA AS THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A SMALL AREA\r\nOF REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nAND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.  THE SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR AND COOL\r\nSSTS...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND LISA IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8.  A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE NEAR NORTHWESTERN\r\nAFRICA.  THE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE AZORES WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 25.1N  29.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 26.0N  29.5W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 27.2N  30.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 28.5N  30.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 29.8N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 31.5N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 32.0N  31.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 26 2010\r\n \r\nLISA HAS LOST NEARLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND NOW CONSISTS\r\nPRIMARILY OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  AN 1104 UTC ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS CAPTURED THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND SHOWED\r\nA SMALL AREA OF 25 TO 30 KT WINDS.  BASED ON THIS DATA AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 25 C...AND\r\nA STABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PREVENT THE FORMATION OF SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF LISA...THEREFORE...DEGENERATION TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE\r\nREMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT.\r\nLISA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS STEERED\r\nBETWEEN A RIDGE OVER WESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nAGAIN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 25.6N  29.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 26.4N  29.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 27.5N  30.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 28.7N  31.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.8N  31.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 31.3N  31.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL142010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142010\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 26 2010\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF LISA.  THIS CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS\r\nLOCATED OVER 100 N MI FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN FACT...DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN WITHIN 100 N MI OF THE CENTER FOR ABOUT THE\r\nLAST 11 HOURS.  THEREFORE...LISA NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS...COUPLED WITH A\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND A RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN SHOULD PREVENT\r\nREGENERATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/6.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 26.1N  29.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 26.8N  30.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 27.9N  31.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 29.1N  31.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 30.2N  31.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 31.4N  31.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-23 18:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n200 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND\r\nTHAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND WINDS\r\nSUFFICIENT TO CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHEASTERN\r\nNICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS.\r\n\r\nA MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE NEXT COMPLETE\r\nADVISORY ISSUED AT 2100 UTC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1800Z 13.9N  76.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.1N  77.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 14.7N  80.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.4N  83.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N  85.1W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 16.9N  87.8W    70 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N  88.4W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 19.5N  87.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nCYCLONE FOUND 42-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT ABOUT 1500 FT IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG. THAT WIND SPEED WOULD\r\nNORMALLY EQUATE TO ABOUT 34 KT AT THE SURFACE. ALSO...THERE WERE\r\nSEVERAL BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 35-37 KT IN THAT AREA.\r\nSINCE THOSE WIND REPORTS...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nINCREASE AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED..AND THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND\r\nHONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON\r\nTHE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 3...THE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nEROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALL OF THE\r\nNHC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYNOPTIC\r\nSCALE PATTERN...EXCEPT FOR THE TIMING. THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...\r\nHWRF...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP THE LOW WEST OF 85W LONGITUDE BY 120\r\nHOURS...WHEREAS THE UKMET IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE\r\nLARGE TROUGH EAST OF 80W. GIVEN THE USUAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF SUCH\r\nA HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER MODEL\r\nAT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE UKMET SOLUTION...\r\nAND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS SINCE MATTHEW\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS AND BENEATH A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE\r\nNORTH COAST OF HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND MOVE INLAND NEAR\r\nBELIZE BY DAY 4. LAND INTERACTION WOULD DISRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER...THEN MATTHEW COULD\r\nEASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION\r\nTHAT MATTHEW WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 14.0N  76.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 14.4N  78.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.1N  81.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 15.6N  84.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  85.8W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.1N  88.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 18.3N  88.4W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 19.5N  87.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF MATTHEW HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY\r\nIMPROVE THIS EVENING.  A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS\r\nARE SEEN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE LATEST\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/15.  FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...\r\nMATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDIRECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE\r\nATLANTIC WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME AND THERE IS FAIRLY\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.  IN 2-3 DAYS...\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENTS AND A\r\nDECELERATION OF THE CYCLONE.  THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SOLUTIONS\r\nDIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH SEVERAL OF THEM SHOWING RATHER\r\nCOMPLEX SCENARIOS.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ALL MOVE MATTHEW\r\nWELL INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN\r\n2-3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY WEAKEN\r\nMATTHEW...THEN DEVELOP A SECOND CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...GFDL....AND HWRF\r\nKEEP MATTHEW AS THE PRIMARY SYSTEM AND SHOW IT TURNING NORTHWARD\r\nALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\nNEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE 4 AND 5 DAY FORECASTS THAN NORMAL.  FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...TVCN...AND IS WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nMATTHEW WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE...\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LAND\r\nINTERACTION.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...ASSUMING THE CENTER STAYS OFFSHORE OF\r\nHONDURAS.  THEREAFTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD SINCE THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS MATTHEW OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA AT 72-120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...SOME CHANGES WERE\r\nREQUIRED TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 14.0N  78.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 14.5N  80.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 15.1N  82.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 15.9N  85.1W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 16.6N  87.1W    65 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 17.9N  89.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 19.0N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nMATTHEW HAS GOTTEN SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  WHILE THE STORM HAS A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -80C...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE CONVECTION.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO 15 KT OF EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOWN IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  IN ADDITION...EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS PRESENT. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND BASED ON THESE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/14.  MATTHEW IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HR.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS...AND\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SERIOUS\r\nDIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT MATTHEW SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA AND/OR GUATEMALA...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING THE\r\nCENTER REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nGFDL..HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST MATTHEW TO REACH THE\r\nEAST COAST OF YUCATAN AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE DIFFERENCES\r\nAPPEAR TO STEM FROM THE INTERACTION OF MATTHEW WITH A DEVELOPING\r\nMONSOON LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ADJACENT\r\nWATERS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.  FOR NOW...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND CALL FOR\r\nA SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO KEEP\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A\r\nLOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST...AND SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MAY BE REQUIRED\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SUBSIDE IN 12-24 HR...SO THE MAIN\r\nFACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY WILL BE LAND INTERACTION.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS MATTHEW PASSING OVER MORE LAND THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nAND THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE THUS BEEN LOWERED.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MATTHEW BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE REACHING HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...BUT THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE INTENSITY OF MATTHEW AFTER 48\r\nHR IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHICH GROUPS OF MODELS ARE CORRECT ABOUT\r\nTHE TRACK.  IF THE GLOBAL MODELS VERIFY...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY\r\nDISSIPATE OVER EASTERN MEXICO OR GUATEMALA.  IF THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nVERIFY...THE SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST OVER THE\r\nCARIBBEAN WATERS.  THE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...AND LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...IT\r\nIS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 14.3N  79.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 14.8N  82.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N  84.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  86.5W    50 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 16.7N  87.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N  89.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 18.5N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 19.5N  89.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING MATTHEW THIS MORNING FOUND THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME ANY STRONGER. EASTERLY SHEAR HAS\r\nKEPT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF A ROUND BLOB\r\nOF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SO\r\nFAR SUGGEST THAT THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. MATTHEW ONLY HAS\r\n12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...AND GIVEN THAT THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO\r\nSHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER FORECAST MATTHEW TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KNOTS.\r\nMATTHEW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG DEEP EASTERLY FLOW AND THERE IS\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE\r\nWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BEYOND TWO\r\nDAYS...MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS AND THE FORECAST BECOMES\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER CONTINUES WESTWARD AND DISSIPATES...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WEAKENS AND BECOMES PART OF A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SUCH A WEATHER PATTERN\r\nWOULD LIKELY PRODUCE DANGEROUS TORRENTIAL RAINS IN CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 14.4N  82.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 14.6N  84.2W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 15.4N  86.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 16.0N  89.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 18.5N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 18.5N  90.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN THE AREA FIXED THE\r\nCENTER OF MATTHEW AT 1717 UTC ABOUT 30 NMI EAST OF THE NORTHEAST\r\nCOAST OF NICARAGUA WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND WINDS\r\nSUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...MATTHEW MOVED\r\nWESTWARD AND THE CENTER CROSSED THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA\r\nAND IS NOW LOCATED INLAND SOUTH OF PUERTO LEMPIRA HONDURAS. THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS STILL WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CYCLONICALLY\r\nCURVED RAINBANDS TO THE NORTH AND VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. SINCE THE CENTER IS ALREADY OVER LAND...GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN.\r\n\r\nAS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD OVER HONDURAS DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE\r\nOVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS THERE\r\nWILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY DATA. \r\n \r\nMATTHEW HAS DECREASED SOME IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING WESTWARD\r\nABOUT 13 KNOTS...WELL EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE\r\nMIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY\r\nDEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...\r\nBUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 14.7N  83.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 15.2N  85.6W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 15.8N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 16.5N  90.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 17.0N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 17.0N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR 72-HOUR FORECAST STATUS\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MATTHEW HAS NOT WEAKENED MUCH THIS\r\nEVENING.  PUERTO LIMPERA IN EASTERN HONDURAS REPORTED A 10-MINUTE\r\nWIND OF 38-40 KNOTS AT 2300 AND 0000 UTC...AND THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A\r\n850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 58 KT AND A PEAK SFMR WINDS OF\r\n51 KT OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF HONDURAS JUST PRIOR TO 0000 UTC. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN OVER\r\nLAND FOR ANOTHER 3 TO 4 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45\r\nKT.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER\r\nLAND...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED FROM 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS AS THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS\r\nBEFORE MOVING INTO BELIZE.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER\r\nGUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nSURFACE DATA...SATELLITE FIXES AND RADAR DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MATTHEW IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.\r\nOVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL GENERALLY STEER\r\nMATTHEW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  BY THE\r\nTIME MATTHEW MOVES INTO GUATEMALA AND MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW\r\nWILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE FORWARD SPEED WAS\r\nTRENDED TOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nA LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED\r\nNEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND\r\nNICARAGUA...LIKELY PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THESE\r\nAREAS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS...EVEN\r\nAFTER MATTHEW WEAKENS.  \r\n\r\nFOR THE PAST FEW DAYS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TOWARD THE\r\nMIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MOST RECENT RUNS INDICATE THAT ANY\r\nDEVELOPMENT THERE WOULD LIKELY NOT HAVE CONTINUITY WITH MATTHEW...\r\nBUT RATHER REPRESENT THE FORMATION OF A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 15.2N  85.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 15.6N  87.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 16.2N  89.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 16.9N  90.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 17.2N  91.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 17.5N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF MATTHEW\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION\r\nWITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C CONTINUING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  LA CEIBA HONDURAS RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF\r\n1002.7 MB...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL BELOW\r\n1000 MB.  BASED ON THESE FACTORS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n45 KT...WITH THOSE WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT EASY TO FIND...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/14.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AGAIN\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO WILL GENERALLY STEER MATTHEW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS OR SO.  BY THE TIME MATTHEW MOVES INTO GUATEMALA AND\r\nEASTERN MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN AS THE RIDGE BREAKS\r\nDOWN...AND A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS\r\nEXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND NOW LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nMATTHEW COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE GULF OF\r\nHONDURAS...BUT IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE OVER WATER LONG ENOUGH FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY\r\nAFTER LANDFALL IN BELIZE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HR.  AFTER\r\n72 HR...THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A LARGE\r\nMONSOON LOW PRESSURE AREA FORECAST TO FORM OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nTHE ADJACENT WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY RAINS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE\r\nTO THE MONSOONAL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 15.7N  86.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.2N  88.0W    45 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 16.8N  89.8W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.2N  90.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N  91.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 18.0N  92.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE OF MATTHEW HAS BECOME DISRUPTED WHILE MOVING OVER THE\r\nHIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS A BROAD\r\nCIRCULATION WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE AREA OF STRONGEST \r\nTHUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. THE\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE NORTH\r\nCOAST OF WESTERN HONDURAS. MATTHEW IS STILL GENERATING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AS INDICATED BY THE STRONG\r\nEASTERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE REPORTED BY THE BELIZE RAOB\r\nTHIS MORNING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 35 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT MOST OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT MATTHEW IS SLOWING DOWN YET. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKNOTS. HOWEVER STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE\r\nENTIRE CIRCULATION SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION. MANY OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS KEEP MATTHEW OVER NORTHERN GUATEMALA OR EASTERN MEXICO WHERE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW DISSIPATING OR BECOMING A REMNANT\r\nLOW.\r\n \r\nWE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THE LARGEST THREAT FROM MATTHEW IS HEAVY\r\nRAINS. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE AFTER MATTHEW DISSIPATES DUE\r\nTO MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH\r\nIS FORECAST TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 16.2N  87.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 16.5N  89.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 17.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N  91.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Matthew","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n400 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM CENTRAL AMERICA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF MATTHEW MOVED\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE WHILE WEAKENING.\r\nTHE CYCLONE DOES NOT HAVE A TIGHT INNER CORE AND WE ARE BASICALLY\r\nTRACKING AN AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE SURROUNDED BY A BROAD CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE WITH NUMEROUS\r\nRAINBANDS FROM THE ADJACENT EASTERN PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS\r\nAND GIVEN THAT THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND...\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nMATTHEW HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN YET...AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCOLLAPSE SOON AND MATTHEW IS LIKELY TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  IN\r\nFACT...MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE BASICALLY MEANDERING\r\nACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nWE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT DESPITE THE EXPECTED WEAKENING OF MATTHEW...\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 17.4N  89.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N  90.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  91.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N  91.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 19.0N  90.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Matthew","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 25 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AGAIN NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF MATTHEW TONIGHT.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON\r\nA 25-KT 10-MINUTE WIND FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB IS\r\nBASED ON AN OBSERVATION FROM TIKAL GUATEMALA AS THE CENTER PASSED\r\nNEARBY.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN\r\nOVER LAND...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT MATTHEW IS\r\nLOCATED FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/12.  MATTHEW CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER REGION OF CYCLONIC FLOW THAT\r\nEXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW IN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW\r\nDRAMATICALLY.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD OR\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT SEEMS LIKELY AS WHAT IS LEFT OF MATTHEW ROTATES\r\nWITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION AND A SOUTHWARD TREND IN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nFROM 24 TO 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH MATTHEW AND ITS REMNANTS OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THERE WERE THREE OBSERVING SITES IN HONDURAS\r\nAND GUATEMALA THAT REPORTED BETWEEN 6.1 AND 7.3 INCHES OF RAIN IN\r\nTHE 24-HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 0000 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 17.0N  91.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.4N  92.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N  92.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 17.5N  92.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 17.4N  92.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Matthew","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n400 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF MATTHEW HAS MOVED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND\r\nNORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nNO WINDS HIGHER THAN ABOUT 15 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER LAND\r\nRECENTLY...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0340 UTC INDICATED WINDS\r\nOF 20-25 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE INTENSITY\r\nIS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 25 KT.  VERY FEW OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nKEEP MATTHEW AS A DISTINCT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MUCH\r\nLONGER...AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SLOWING DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING 285 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKT.  MATTHEW...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AS\r\nIT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MIDDLE OF A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE\r\nTHAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH MATTHEW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL\r\nCONTINUE WITH THE DEPRESSION AND ITS REMNANTS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 17.3N  91.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N  92.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N  93.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 17.4N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Matthew","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL152010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 26 2010\r\n\r\nVISIBLE/INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME\r\nDISORGANIZED AND THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NO MORE THAN 20\r\nKT.  MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD WITH A GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING FORWARD SPEED.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE REMNANT\r\nOF MATTHEW WILL LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.  THE REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY CLOCKWISE\r\nWITHIN THE LARGER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION UNTIL DISSIPATION BY 36 TO\r\n48 HOURS OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE LOW IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE SYSTEM...IN\r\nCONJUNCTION WITH THE BROAD CYCLONIC GYRE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 17.4N  92.9W    20 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.4N  93.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 17.2N  93.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 17.1N  93.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL162010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED A\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SURFACE\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM IS VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY.  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nLARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nSHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CUBA AND\r\nTOWARD SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.  BY 48\r\nHOURS...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MERGING WITH A FRONTAL\r\nZONE.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN 72 HOURS OR SOONER AS THE MODELS\r\nDEPICT A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CAROLINAS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 020/9.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nA GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WEST OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OCCURING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  IF THIS STRUCTURE PERSISTS...THE TRACK OF THE CENTER\r\nWILL BE RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE\r\nCONFINED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 20.6N  82.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.6N  81.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 23.5N  80.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 26.5N  80.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 31.0N  78.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL162010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nCONSISTED OF A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY UNIFORM\r\nPRESSURE.  INDEED...WINDS WERE 20 KT OR LESS WITHIN 100 N MI OR\r\nMORE OF THE CENTER.  CLEARLY...THIS IS NOT A CLASSICAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED SOME 200 N MI SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA DATA BUOY 42057 FROM EARLY\r\nTHIS MORNING AND ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1500 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM MAY HAVE BEEN A MARGINAL TROPICAL STORM EARLIER TODAY.  THERE\r\nIS SOME QUESTION...HOWEVER...AS TO WHETHER THOSE WINDS WERE\r\nREPRESENTATIVE OF THE CYCLONE SCALE.  IN ANY EVENT...RECENT\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOWS NO EVIDENCE OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS AT THIS TIME.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE...WITH RAGGED-LOOKING BANDING FEATURES AND VERY LITTLE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.   THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM PREDICTION.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MERGE WITH A FRONT\r\nAND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nMODELS ALSO SHOW WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT TO\r\nTHE NORTH REPLACING THE FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE AIRCRAFT...SURFACE...AND SATELLITE DATA THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  NO SIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  A CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION WITH ACCELERATION...BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nTHE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NOW A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT QUITE CLOSE TO THE NEW U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS.\r\n \r\nUNLESS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE TIGHTENS UP SOON...THE EXACT\r\nTRACK OF THE CENTER ACROSS CUBA AND FLORIDA WILL BE RELATIVELY\r\nUNIMPORTANT...SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS WILL\r\nOCCUR WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 21.5N  82.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N  81.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 25.4N  80.6W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 29.0N  79.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 34.0N  78.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL162010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN CONTINUES TO HAVE A STRUCTURE MORE\r\nCHARACTERISTIC OF A WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC/NORTH INDIAN OCEAN\r\nMONSOON DEPRESSION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE\r\nWINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS OVER AN AREA ENCOMPASSING 100 N MI IN\r\nDIAMETER FROM THE CENTER...AND THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND\r\nCONVECTION ARE 250-300 N MI AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  AN EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER MISSION IN THIS AREA FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 997 MB.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRLS PRESENT...AND THE CENTER\r\nAPPEARS TO RE-FORM FROM TIME TO TIME.  THE INITIAL MOTION OF 035/7\r\nIS THUS A BIT UNCERTAIN.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND ONLY MINOR\r\nCHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A QUICK NORTHWARD MOTION.  THERE IS\r\nSOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE SPEED AND DIRECTION OF MOTION BY 48 HR. \r\nTHE GFS... GFDL...AND HWRF ARE MUCH FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nREST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN ARE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT.  THESE DIFFERENCES LIKELY RESULT\r\nFROM THE MODEL HANDLING OF THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH A\r\nDEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF 15 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  THUS...NEITHER THE\r\nENVIRONMENT NOR THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH MODEST STRENGTHENING ALONG THE LINES OF\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HR OR SO AND BE COMPLETE BY 36-48 HR.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY THE EASTERN U. S. BAROCLINIC\r\nLOW AFTER 48 HR...AS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nUNLESS THE STRUCTURE CHANGES RADICALLY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...IT\r\nIS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT\r\nWINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR IN AREAS\r\nWELL TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 21.9N  81.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 23.3N  81.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 26.3N  80.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 30.6N  79.3W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 36.3N  78.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL162010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM\r\nKEY WEST AND MIAMI...ALONG WITH RADAR RADAR FROM CUBA INDICATE\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ALSO...AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLYING BETWEEN FLORIDA AND\r\nCUBA HAS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 33 KT IN UNCONTAMINATED SFMR\r\nDATA ABOUT 80-120 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH IS MUCH\r\nCLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN SEEN NOTED IN PRIOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nAND RECON DATA. THE LARGEST DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY VALUES DETECTED\r\nTHUS FAR HAVE BEEN 40-44 KT BETWEEN 6000-12000 FT. THIS INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS ON TRACK AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n020/12. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS\r\nBEEN STEADILY BACKING AROUND FROM THE WEST TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST\r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS A SERIES OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGHS\r\nDIG SOUTHWARD DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOCATED\r\nALONG 85W...THE FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.\r\nTHIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACCELERATE THE DEPRESSION TO THE \r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTODAY...AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE EAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...THE STRONG BACKING\r\nFLOW PATTERN MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY ARGUES FOR KEEPING THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK ALONG THE WESTERN OR LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE \r\nENVELOPE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE 30 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A\r\nRESULT...THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR PRIOR TO THE CYCLONE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST LATER TODAY. EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND BE COMPLETE\r\nBY 36-48 HR AS THE SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WHERE IT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...THE LOW\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER U. S. BAROCLINIC OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN  UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM INTENSITY MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 23.3N  81.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 25.2N  80.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 28.9N  79.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 33.8N  78.6W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 40.0N  77.3W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL162010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010\r\n\r\nBANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION SINCE YESTERDAY. \r\nALSO...THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW SHIP...BUOY...AND LAND OBSERVATIONS OF\r\nSUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED\r\nORGANIZATION AND THE SURFACE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE.  \r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF NICOLE WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST\r\nOF CUBA AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING.  SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE CORE CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS STILL OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT A SURFACE TROUGH\r\nEXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL OR\r\nNORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  NICOLE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CUBA AND\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AS THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMES THE DOMINANT EVENT.  THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nPREDICTED.  GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. \r\n \r\nBASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR\r\nFLORIDA HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM NICOLE IS\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF JAMAICA AND\r\nCUBA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 22.6N  80.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 24.7N  79.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 29.4N  78.4W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL162010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162010\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 29 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INITIAL STATUS\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...AND SURFACE DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nNICOLE HAS BECOME ELONGATED THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CENTER...\r\nWHICH WAS NEVER VERY WELL DEFINED...HAS BECOME UN-TRACKABLE AND\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE 12Z GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES\r\nTONIGHT.  THIS NEW LOW...NOT CONSIDERED TO BE THE REMNANT OF\r\nNICOLE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES AS A GALE CENTER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF NICOLE ARE LIKELY TO\r\nCONTINUE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...JAMAICA...AND THE\r\nCENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  \r\nRAINFALL IN FLORIDA SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 24.5N  80.0W    35 KT...DISSIPATED NEAR\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 06 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF\r\nPUERTO RICO HAS DEVELOPED BANDS OF DEEP AND CURVED CONVECTION IN\r\nTHE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS.  IN ADDITION...NIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS BECOME BETTER-DEFINED SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A TROPICAL 2.0 FROM\r\nTAFB...AND A SUBTROPICAL 1.5 FROM TAFB.  WHILE THE LOW IS NOT FAR\r\nFROM BEING MORE TROPICAL THAN SUBTROPICAL...ITS CURRENT LARGE\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AT LEAST 120 N MI...AND ITS ENTANGLEMENT\r\nWITH AN UPPER LOW LEAD ME TO START THE SYSTEM AS A SUBTROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nA FEW SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO MOVE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THAT LOW...WHICH WOULD\r\nPLACE IT INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHTER\r\nWIND SHEAR.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS AND THE MODELS\r\nWEAKEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS\r\nLIKELY IN A DAY OR SO.  BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...ONLY A SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED BECAUSE IT COULD\r\nTAKE SOME TIME TO SHED ALL OF ITS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nWHICH WILL PROBABLY HALT ANY STRENGTHENING AFTER THAT TIME.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE\r\nINITIAL SUBTROPICAL STRUCTURE...AND IS GENERALLY BETWEEN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE LGEM.  \r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 325/7.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nMOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND A LARGE RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE RIDGE SHOULD BE ERODED AWAY\r\nIN A DAY OR TWO BY A SERIES OF MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM\r\nTO SLOW DOWN BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCELERATE BY EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING MID-LATITUDE FLOW. \r\nOVERALL THE MODEL AGREEMENT IS PRETTY GOOD FOR A WEAK SYSTEM AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SEEMS LIKELY BY 96 HR...IF NOT\r\nSOONER...AS DEPICTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 22.2N  67.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 23.0N  67.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 23.6N  68.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 24.2N  67.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 25.0N  66.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 28.0N  60.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 36.5N  37.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 06 2010\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THERE ARE\r\nMULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF THE LARGER\r\nCYCLONIC GYRE. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS LOCATED AT THE\r\nMEAN CENTER OF THE BROADER CIRCULATION. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS TROPICAL T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.1/31 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. EARLIER AMSU\r\nTEMPERATURE DATA ALSO INDICATED THAT A WEAK WARM CORE WAS LOCATED\r\nBETWEEN 600-400 MB...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS NOT FULLY NOT\r\nFULLY TROPICAL. GIVEN THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STILL INTERACTING WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO BE CENTERED JUST\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nHELD AT 30 KT AND THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RETAIN SUBTROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STATUS FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE\r\nAROUND 18Z...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/8 BASED ON MICROWAVE POSITIONS\r\nAND USING THE AFOREMENTIONED MEAN FIX POSITION DATA. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED\r\nTO THE NORTH. A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nWEAKNESS...AND A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND\r\nALSO STRENGTHEN THE FRONT SYSTEM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH AFTER 36 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS. THE FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD\r\nINITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n \r\nGRADUAL TRANSITION TO A FULLY TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS DEVELOPED WITHIN ABOUT 30 NMI OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS TROPICAL TRANSITION COULD COMPLICATE THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SINCE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSIFICATION PROCESSES USUALLY\r\nOCCUR ON MUCH SHORTER TIME SCALES THAN THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nSUBTROPICAL CYCLONES. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nRELATIVELY LOW FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nOVER WARM SSTS OF GREATER THAN 28C. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST\r\nSOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF ALL OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS MODEL MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE\r\nBY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS A VIABLE POSSIBILITY IF THE SYSTEM TAKES ON\r\nA MORE CLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STRUCTURE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 23.0N  68.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 23.5N  68.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 24.2N  68.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 24.9N  67.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 26.1N  65.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 29.3N  58.3W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 33.4N  47.4W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 38.0N  34.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 06 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nUNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND HAS STRENGTHEN INTO\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO. CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75\r\nPERCENT AROUND THE BROAD INNER CORE WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM 1500-FT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 63 KT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 50 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS\r\nVALUE IS CLOSE TO THE 48 KT CREDIBLE SFMR WINDS OBSERVED IN THE\r\nSAME AREA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. VISIBLE AND\r\nWATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCOLD LOW...LOCATED PREVIOUSLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...HAS MOVED\r\nCYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW SITUATED\r\nABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT OTTO\r\nIS STILL A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT THAT IT IS ALSO GRADUALLY\r\nACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4. THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OTTO IS MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD THROUGH A BROAD WEAKNESS IN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHERE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK. HOWEVER...A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD\r\nAND GRADUALLY NUDGE OTTO ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS...AND THEN RAPIDLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BY 36 HOURS. BETWEEN 72\r\nAND 96 HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND\r\nBECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY POSE A\r\nTHREAT TO THE AZORES ISLANDS BY 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nJUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nOTTO IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A COMBINATION OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C...AND THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION OF\r\nTHE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR OTTO TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 36 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY 96 HOURS...OTTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE STRONGER SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS AND THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 23.2N  68.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 23.8N  68.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  67.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.5N  66.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.8N  63.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 30.3N  55.8W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 34.5N  44.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  31.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 06 2010\r\n \r\nAFTER THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nMADE ONE MORE PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OTTO AND MEASURED A PEAK\r\n1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 68 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...\r\nCORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 54 KT AT THE SURFACE.  AN SFMR WIND OF 55 KT\r\nWAS ALSO REPORTED EARLIER IN THE MISSION...AND THAT WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IN THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY SHOW THAT THE SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE ALMOST\r\nCOLLOCATED...BUT RECENT AMSU DATA INDICATE THAT THE WARM CORE IN\r\nTHE MID-LEVELS OF THE CIRCULATION IS STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH OTTO\r\nSTILL LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...IT APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY GAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO...AND THE CYCLONE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD.  THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MOST\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND BRINGS OTTO TO AN 80-KT HURRICANE...BUT THESE\r\nMODELS PROBABLY DO NOT HANDLE TRANSITIONING SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES AS\r\nWELL AS PURE TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS CLOSER\r\nTO THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE AND GLOBAL MODELS AND SHOWS OTTO\r\nREACHING 65 KT FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER WITH OTTO BECOMING AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/3.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  OTTO SHOULD MOVE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 23.5N  68.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 23.9N  68.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 24.7N  66.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 26.0N  64.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 27.8N  61.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 32.0N  52.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 37.0N  38.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 42.0N  27.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 07 2010\r\n\r\nOTTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE MUCH CONVECTION DURING THE\r\nOVERNIGHT HOURS.  A CURVED OUTER BAND PERSISTS IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...WITH A SMALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE\r\nBIT...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 50 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 35 TO 50 KT.  IF THE\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER CONTINUES...THEN OTTO WILL LIKELY\r\nTRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  THE SYSTEM STILL HAS\r\nDAY OR TWO OF LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS AND WARM WATER TO INTENSIFY. \r\nIN FACT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW OTTO BECOMING A HURRICANE...AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST WILL GO ALONG WITH THAT SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...OTTO\r\nPROBABLY NEEDS TO SHED ITS SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO TAKE\r\nADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL\r\nRETAINING SOME SUBTROPICAL FEATURES...THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS\r\nBELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OTTO BECOMING\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...SO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS\r\nIS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS\r\nONLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.  INITIALLY...OTTO IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...WHICH SHOULD\r\nSTEER OTTO MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED\r\nAS THE STORM MOVES IN FASTER FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH.\r\nWHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS WELL CLUSTERED ON THIS SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN...THERE ARE SOME NOTABLE SPEED DIFFERENCES...AS THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF ARE MUCH FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...SHOWING\r\nA SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  THE\r\n96 AND 120 HR POSITIONS OF OTTO MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD\r\nLATER TODAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP\r\nIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A TROUGH EAST OF THE AZORES...RATHER\r\nTHAN MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE\r\nINDICATING.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 23.6N  68.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 24.0N  67.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 25.1N  66.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 26.8N  63.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 28.8N  59.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 33.5N  48.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 38.5N  35.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 41.0N  25.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 07 2010\r\n \r\nOTTO HAS FINALLY TRANSITIONED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BASED ON A\r\n07/0935Z AMSU VERTICAL TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS PROFILE FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nTHAT INDICATED THE WARM CORE HAD MOVED UPWARD FROM THE MID-LEVELS\r\nTO THE UPPER-LEVELS OF THE CYCLONE. A RECENT BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR -80C THAT HAS DEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE CENTER ALSO SUPPORTS A TRANSITION TO TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSTATUS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN T2.0/30\r\nKT AND T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS USING A CURVED\r\nBAND PATTERN. HOWEVER...USING A SHEAR PATTERN WITH THE RECENT BURST\r\nOF CENTRAL CONVECTION YIELDS A VALUE OF T3.5/55 KT. SINCE THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS ONLY PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE\r\n50-KT WIND RADII DISTANCE HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM 45 NMI TO 15 NMI.\r\n\r\nOTTO HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT A\r\nSLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 325/02...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON\r\nAND THAT IS THE MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...THERE\r\nREMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACKS OR\r\nPHILOSOPHIES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TREK AND\r\nGRADUALLY NUDGE OTTO TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY\r\n36-48 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE LARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE\r\nOTTO AND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD\r\nFRONT. OTTO IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72\r\nHOURS AND BECOME A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THAT COULD\r\nAFFECT THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 96 TO 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS BASICALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT OTTO HAS TRANSITIONED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE STORM\r\nHAS A BETTER CHANCE OF REACHING HURRICANE STATUS AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nAROUND 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE OTTO WILL BE OVER\r\n28C OR WARMER SSTS. THE MUCH SMALLER INNER CORE WIND FIELD ALSO\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE RAPID RESPONSE TO DEEP CONVECTION THAT\r\nDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER. IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...THE\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD A LITTLE HIGHER THAN WHAT WOULD TYPICALLY\r\nBE EXPECTED FOR A CYCLONE EXPERIENCING SHEAR CONDITIONS OF 40-50 KT\r\nDUE TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND AN EXPECTED INFUSION OF\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY THAT SHOULD HELP TO SUSTAIN THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE NHC OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 23.8N  68.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 24.3N  67.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 25.7N  65.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 27.6N  61.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 29.8N  57.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 34.7N  45.2W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 39.0N  32.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 39.0N  25.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 07 2010\r\n \r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70C TO\r\n-80C HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. SHEAR PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN T3.0/45 KT AND T3.5/55 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 50 KT.  ALTHOUGH \r\nA SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF\r\nOTTO...LOWER CIRRUS CLOUD ELEMENTS CAN BE SEEN UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nFAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER IN VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH\r\nIS CREATING SOME MODEST UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/05. OTTO IS COMING UNDER THE\r\nINCREASING INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED\r\nEASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD AND STEADILY ACCELERATE OTTO\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...OTTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND GALE AREA THAT COULD AFFECT THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 96 TO\r\n120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE\r\nOTTO REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS AND ALSO MOVES INTO AN AREA OF\r\nINCREASING INSTABILITY LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 24 AND 36\r\nHOURS...AND THAT IS WHEN OTTO COULD POSSIBLY REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS. HOWEVER...THIS WOULD\r\nLIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR. BY 72\r\nHOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR OF 35-40\r\nKT...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...OTTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA BY THAT TIME...AND THE\r\nINFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE NHC OBJECTIVE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 24.0N  67.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 24.7N  66.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 26.1N  63.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 28.4N  59.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 30.8N  54.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 35.7N  42.3W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  29.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 37.0N  23.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 PM AST THU OCT 07 2010\r\n \r\nA LITTLE BIT OF WESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING OTTO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS EMBEDDED BENEATH THE WESTERN SIDE OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55\r\nKT AND T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT.  STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.  THE ONE BIG CHANGE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS THAT MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW A PEAK IN\r\nINTENSITY OCCURRING AROUND 48 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOUT 12 HOURS LATER\r\nTHAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW FORECAST...\r\nTHEREFORE...DOES NOT SHOW WEAKENING COMMENCING UNTIL AFTER 48\r\nHOURS.  THIS SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL AND GLOBAL\r\nGUIDANCE BUT TENDS TO DISREGARD THE HWRF AND GFDL SINCE THOSE\r\nMODELS APPEAR TO DISSIPATE OTTO TOO SOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/8.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING PICKED UP BY A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN FAST MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FLOW WILL SPLIT WITH THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TAKING THE SOUTHERN ROUTE AND SLOWING DOWN AS IT NEARS THE\r\nAZORES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND GENERALLY LIES BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND SLOWER\r\nGFS.\r\n\r\nTHE FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SHOW THAT OTTO SHOULD BEGIN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT THEY ALSO\r\nSUGGEST THAT IT WILL NOT BECOME A DEEP COLD-CORE SYSTEM WITHIN THE\r\n5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT OTTO\r\nWILL BECOME COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 24.1N  66.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 24.9N  65.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 26.7N  62.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 29.0N  57.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 31.4N  52.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 36.5N  38.5W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 39.0N  27.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 36.5N  23.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP AND SYMMETRIC CONVECTION HAS\r\nINTENSIFIED NEAR THE CENTER OF OTTO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nWITH AN OCCASIONAL HINT OF A WARM SPOT IN THE INFRARED CHANNEL. \r\nUNFORTUNATELY THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES TO\r\nHELP LOCATE THE CENTER...WHICH HANDICAPS THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE. \r\nDVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 65/55 KT...AND A BLEND OF THESE\r\nDATA GIVE AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 60 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL RELAX NEAR OTTO DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE STORM TO BECOME A HURRICANE. \r\nGUIDANCE IS NOW IN AGREEMENT ON OTTO ATTAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nLATER TODAY.  SINCE ANY SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ARE NOW\r\nGONE...I DO NOT SEE A GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT THE GUIDANCE...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...JUST BELOW\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nDUE TO WATERS COOLING BELOW 26C AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.   \r\n\r\nBASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 060/12.  OTTO IS BEING ACCELERATED GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nFAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK DURING THAT TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...LARGE DISAGREEMENTS OCCUR IN THE LONG RANGE AS IT IS NOT\r\nCLEAR WHETHER OTTO WILL REMAIN WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW OR TURN\r\nMORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A TROUGH\r\nOVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE MOST RELIABLE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW THE LATTER SOLUTION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nSTAY WITH THAT SCENARIO.  \r\n\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL PROBABLY BEGIN AFTER THE CYCLONE\r\nCROSSES 30N AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO HIGHER\r\nSHEAR.  FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT OTTO WILL\r\nRETAIN ITS WARM CORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THE MODEL THICKNESS FIELDS\r\nDO SHOW THE CYCLONE DEVELOPING FRONTAL FEATURES IN ABOUT THREE\r\nDAYS... THUS EXTRATROPICAL STATUS IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 24.8N  65.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 25.9N  63.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 28.0N  60.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 30.3N  55.2W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 33.2N  49.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 38.5N  34.0W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 39.0N  25.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 36.5N  21.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 08 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OTTO IS STEADILY INCREASING IN\r\nORGANIZATION.  THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL DEFINED AND LARGE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS...WITH A CURVED\r\nBAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ATTACHED TO THE MAIN CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS.  A 1059 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL EYEWALL...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE A\r\nBIT TO THE WEST OF THAT FEATURE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND OTTO IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE BASED UPON THESE\r\nDATA AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT\r\nINDICATES THAT OTTO SHOULD REMAIN IN A GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND OVER MARGINALLY WARM\r\nWATERS...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  AFTER THAT...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS OTTO\r\nENCOUNTERS A RAPID INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nOTTO HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE LATEST\r\nFIXES SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/15.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OTTO SHOULD ACCELERATE FURTHER ON A\r\nGENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...EMBEDDED\r\nIN A SWIFT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYER TROUGH\r\nCOVERING THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS...OTTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SEPARATE FROM THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND\r\nTURN EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROUGH\r\nOVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND WESTERN EUROPE.  ALTHOUGH THIS\r\nSOLUTION IS GENERALLY FAVORED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THERE REMAINS SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE EXPECTED TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST SHOULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE\r\nLEFT BEYOND THAT TIME...FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS ONCE\r\nOTTO BECOMES MORE DEEPLY INVOLVED WITH THE FAST-PACED...MID-\r\nLATITUDE FLOW TO THE NORTH.  THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COMPLETION OF THIS PROCESS AS OTTO IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 25.9N  64.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 27.3N  61.7W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 29.7N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 32.4N  51.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 35.5N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 40.0N  31.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 40.0N  24.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 37.0N  22.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 08 2010\r\n\r\nOTTO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH AN AREA OF OUTER\r\nBANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND THERE IS A RECENT\r\nCIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 63 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 70 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR/POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 055/18.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY...GUIDANCE...OR FORECAST TRACK DURING THE FIRST\r\n72 HR OF THE FORECAST.  OTTO IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND IT SHOULD MOVE\r\nRAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME DIVERGENT.  WHILE THE GFS...GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF STILL SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...\r\nTHE UKMET...CANADIAN...NOGAPS...AND GFDL NOW SHOW A CONTINUED\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN THESE CAMPS...\r\nFORECASTING OTTO TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 84-96 HR BEFORE SHARPLY\r\nTURNING IT DUE SOUTH.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE\r\nGFS SCENARIO...BUT IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE\r\nOTHER MODELS.  HOWEVER...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK STILL LIES\r\nWELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND MORE\r\nNORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK COULD BE NEEDED LATER.\r\n \r\nOTTO WILL SPEND 12-24 HR IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR/WARM SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 24 HR...\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD\r\nSTART A WEAKENING TREND.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN AT ABOUT 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 72 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nSTILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE COMPLETION OF THIS\r\nPROCESS DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ON HOW CLOSE\r\nOTTO WILL BE TO THE MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 26.8N  62.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 28.7N  59.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 31.3N  54.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 34.3N  48.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 38.2N  40.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 42.0N  30.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 41.0N  25.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 39.0N  20.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 08 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DECREASED IN AREAL\r\nCOVERAGE...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C HAVE PERSISTED\r\nNEAR THE UPPER-LEVEL CENTER. A 08/2217Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nINDICATED THE EYE IS TILTED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNSTREAM TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY AT LEAST 35 NMI BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T5.0/90\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND T4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND AROUND 67 KT FROM THE\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT PROGRAM. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nINCREASED TO 75 KT...AND OTTO HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN STRENGTH GIVEN\r\nTHE EYEWALL WAS OPEN AT ALL LEVELS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/18. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OTTO IS\r\nNOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF A MASSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD\r\nFROM THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS\r\nFLOW REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OTTO TO THE NORTHEAST OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT ON WHETHER OTTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OR SLOW DOWN AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES\r\nISLANDS.  THERE IS MUCH LESS SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS\r\nRUN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH A NOTED DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. OVERALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...TVCN...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF THAT\r\nMODEL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS OUTRUNNING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOTED IN\r\nMICROWAVE DATA BY MORE THAN 60 NMI...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST SINCE OTTO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS\r\nAND EXPERIENCING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. TIMING\r\nPOSSIBLE DECOUPLING OF THE LOWER- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IS\r\nTRICKY. HOWEVER...SINCE OTTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C SSTS...BE\r\nUNDERNEATH VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS EXCEEDING 40 KT...AND POSSIBLY\r\nMERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A BLEND OF THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...DUE IN PART TO THE TILTED VORTEX STRUCTURE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 27.8N  60.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 29.7N  57.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 32.6N  51.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 36.1N  44.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 40.0N  36.4W    60 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 43.0N  28.0W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 43.0N  23.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 40.0N  20.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 09 2010\r\n \r\nOTTO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION IN A CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C...HOWEVER THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY DISTORTED DUE TO 20 TO 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nTHIS SHEAR IS ALSO TILTING THE VORTEX NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT AS\r\nSEEN IN A 0021 UTC SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS OF 4.0 TO 5.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO WHILE OTTO REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO SHEAR AND\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE BEYOND THAT TIME AS OTTO UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/21 IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A LACK OF\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO LAG BEHIND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.\r\nOTTO WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF NORTH\r\nAMERICA AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE\r\nTVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST THAT\r\nPOST-TROPICAL OTTO WILL MOVE AROUND THE TOP OF A SHORTWAVE RIDGE\r\nAND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES. HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nTURN AND THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 TOWARD A BLEND OF THE UKMET\r\nAND GFS MODELS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL AT THESE TIMES\r\nDUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0052 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 29.2N  58.5W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 31.1N  54.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 34.3N  48.3W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 37.7N  40.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 41.3N  33.4W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 43.0N  27.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 40.5N  24.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 37.0N  22.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 09 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO HAS GRADUALLY BEEN DECREASING\r\nIN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST THAT THE CYCLONE HAD BEEN MAINTAINING HAS BECOME\r\nINCREASINGLY DISTORTED...AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  A\r\nSERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...AND GIVE EVIDENCE\r\nOF A PRONOUNCED TILT OF THE VORTEX DUE TO THE EFFECT OF MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT\r\nBASED UPON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 3.5 AND 4.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS AS OTTO ENTERS A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN...AND THE COMPLETION\r\nOF THIS PROCESS...ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...IS FORECAST BY\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD BASED UPON RECENT TRENDS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE MICROWAVE FIXES WERE HELPFUL IN FINDING THE CENTER OF OTTO AND\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 055/25.  OTTO IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE\r\nFURTHER ON A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS IN BETWEEN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST\r\nATLANTIC AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS EAST.  ONCE POST-\r\nTROPICAL...OTTO IS EXPECTED TO ABRUPTLY DECELERATE AND TURN\r\nEASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE TOP OF A SHORTWAVE\r\nRIDGE AND DIVES INTO THE WEST SIDE OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nATLANTIC.  ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTY\r\nIN PREDICTING THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN...THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS HAS DECREASED SOME SINCE THE LAST CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 30.7N  55.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 32.9N  51.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 36.2N  44.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 39.7N  36.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 42.5N  31.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 43.0N  26.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 39.6N  24.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 36.5N  21.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 09 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OTTO IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WARMING\r\nCLOUD TOPS ARE PRIMARILY LOCATED NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS\r\nA CONSEQUENCE OF CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT MAINTAINING OTTO AS A HURRICANE\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS OTTO ENCOUNTERS\r\nA HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEARS\r\nTO BE UNDERWAY AS EVIDENCED BY CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND\r\nCOLDER...DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS PROCESS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD FINISH EARLIER. THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN\r\nLINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nOTTO IS STILL ACCELERATING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n055/28. SOME FURTHER ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS LIKELY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP\r\nLAYER OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 36 HOURS....OTTO SHOULD\r\nABRUPTLY DECELERATE AND TURN EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT\r\nSTEERED AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS AND\r\nTHE CANADIAN...IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 32.4N  52.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 34.7N  47.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 38.0N  40.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 41.3N  33.6W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 43.4N  29.4W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 43.0N  25.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 39.0N  24.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 37.0N  22.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 09 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE OTTO IS\r\nQUICKLY COMING UNRAVELED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY AND\r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER DISHEVELED\r\nLOOKING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nT3.5/55 KT FROM SAB...AND OTTO IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS BASED ON A PRESSURE REPORT OF 989.1 MB AT 23Z FROM\r\nDRIFTING BUOY 62905 THAT OTTO PASSED OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/33. OTTO CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE\r\nAHEAD OF A SHARP DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC. HOWEVER...ACCELERATION SHOULD LIKELY CEASE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nDECOUPLE DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO MORE THAN 40 KT AND\r\nSSTS COOLING TO BELOW 23C. BY 36 HOURS....OTTO SHOULD BE STEERED BY\r\nTHE WEAKER WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nEASTWARD...FOLLOWED BY A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS\r\nTHE TOP OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED WEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nTHERE IS LESS SPREAD IN THE MODELS FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nREMAINS SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DECREASING SSTS AND DRY\r\nAIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST...SHOULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS\r\nAND OTTO SHOULD TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS\r\nOR LESS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 33.9N  48.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 36.3N  43.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 39.7N  36.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 42.0N  31.4W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 43.5N  28.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 42.0N  25.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 39.0N  23.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 37.0N  21.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 10 2010\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OTTO CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE\r\nSHIELD OF CIRRUS AND A FEW BURSTS OF CONVECTION...AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nLOOKING INCREASINGLY EXTRATROPICAL.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT\r\nBASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB.  STRONG VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND COLDER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING\r\nOTTO...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.  THESE MODELS PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER\r\nHANDLE ON THE MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS...WHICH APPEAR TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE TOO FAST.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF RE-ENERGIZE OTTO BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE LOW ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nOTTO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS MOVING 65 DEGREES AT 34 KT.  THE FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF OTTO IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE AND TURN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD...MOVING AROUND THE APEX OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING ACROSS THE AZORES.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS THEN\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE CURRENTLY\r\nNEAR WESTERN EUROPE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  BASED ON THE NEW MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE ENTIRE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS MIRRORED MAINLY ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...\r\nUKMET...AND GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 35.3N  45.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 38.1N  39.2W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 41.5N  32.4W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 43.4N  27.5W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 42.4N  25.1W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 39.5N  23.5W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 37.0N  21.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z 36.5N  19.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL172010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL172010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 10 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FRONTAL CLOUD\r\nBANDS AND ALSO INDICATES THAT COOL DRY AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF OTTO AND INTO THE CENTER.  THE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTION IS NOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER AND AMSU TEMPERATURE\r\nPROFILES SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAS WEAKENED. BASED ON\r\nALL OF THIS...OTTO IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nAND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 55 KT...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN LATER TODAY AS OTTO\r\nMOVES AWAY FROM THE BEST BAROCLINIC DYNAMICS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS\r\nWORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF STRENGTHEN OTTO A LITTLE AT THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COULD BE A LITTLE LOW\r\nON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nOTTO IS RACING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 35 TO 40 KNOTS...EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING POST-TROPICAL OTTO\r\nESCAPING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND TURNING EASTWARD AND THEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN 48 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN\r\nMEDITERRANEAN SEA. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES\r\nEAST...LEAVING OTTO BEHIND TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD\r\nBY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS\r\n...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL OTTO CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND BY METEO-FRANCE UNDER WMO\r\nHEADER FQNT50 LFPW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 37.3N  41.1W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 40.0N  35.6W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 42.6N  29.7W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 43.0N  26.3W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 41.5N  24.1W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 37.0N  22.0W    35 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 36.0N  20.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z 37.0N  19.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paula","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND\r\nAN INTENSIFYING ONE AT THAT.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1000 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL AND\r\nSFMR WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT...AND THIS\r\nCOULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSITY TRENDS...AND\r\nPAULA COULD REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\nTHAT TIME...PAULA MAY ENCOUNTER SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nA BROAD PEAK FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOW WEAKENING AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS CLOSEST TO\r\nTHE LGEM AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/8 BASED ON AIRCRAFT FIXES AND\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES OF THE LOCATION OF THE DEVELOPING CENTER. PAULA\r\nIS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS A BROAD\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE\r\nBEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS PAULA DRIFTING SLOWLY\r\nEASTWARD AT DAYS 3 AND 4...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION AT DAY 5.\r\nTHIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...UKMET...AND\r\nECMWF...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST AT THIS TIME RANGE. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 16.0N  84.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 16.8N  84.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N  86.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 19.6N  86.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N  86.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 20.0N  85.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N  85.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N  85.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paula","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 11 2010\r\n \r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS.  SINCE THAT TIME THE CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER AND IT APPEARS THAT PAULA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT...BASED ON THE IMPROVED\r\nORGANIZATION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN\r\nROUTE AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF\r\nPAULA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.\r\n\r\nPAULA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS ENVIRONMENT\r\nFAVORS STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nDRIER AIR OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 3-5 DAYS IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10.  PAULA\r\nIS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA.  THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A POSITION NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE PAULA TO SLOW DOWN AS THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS COLLAPSE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BEYOND \r\n48 HOURS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK \r\nREMAINS QUITE LOW.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 16.8N  84.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.9N  85.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 19.4N  86.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 20.4N  86.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 21.0N  86.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 21.5N  85.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 21.5N  84.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N  83.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF\r\n65 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND OF 62 KT.  IT IS\r\nPROBABLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT SAMPLE THE VERY HIGHEST WINDS IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  MOREOVER...A DROPSONDE IN THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL SHOWED THAT THE WINDS FROM AROUND 900 MB DOWN\r\nTO THE SURFACE WERE 65-70 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...PAULA IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.  SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING\r\nTHE WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...THE OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nLESS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW\r\nSTRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IMPACTING THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTHWARD\r\nTOWARD THE CIRCULATION LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE LATEST GFS AND U.K. MET GLOBAL MODEL RUNS IMPLY MORE\r\nWEAKENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS THAN SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS BEGINNING\r\nTO LEAN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 325/9.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.  PAULA IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL ACCELERATING PAULA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS AND THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE TURNING\r\nTHE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA.  THE MODEL SPREAD IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE\r\nPREDICTED INTENSITY.  A STRONGER SYSTEM SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL\r\nWOULD LIKELY BE STEERED BY THE DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAND A WEAK/SHALLOW CYCLONE SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF WOULD\r\nLIKELY BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY LOW-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY\r\nWINDS.  SINCE WE EXPECT PAULA TO WEAKEN IN THE LATTER HALF OF\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  AS NOTED\r\nIN EARLIER DISCUSSIONS...CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 17.6N  85.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 18.7N  86.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 20.1N  86.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 21.0N  86.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N  86.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 21.5N  85.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N  84.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N  83.5W    40 KT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010\r\n \r\nPAULA IS A SMALL HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A HINT OF\r\nAN EYE FEATURE AND LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. LATEST AVAILABLE\r\nSSMI IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT RING OF CONVECTION MARKING THE\r\nEYEWALL AT THE MIDDLE LEVELS. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 4.0 SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE\r\nHURRICANE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER BY JUDGING THE LATEST VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES. HOWEVER...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANE...WHICH WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO ADJUST\r\nTHE INTENSITY...IF NECESSARY. ALTHOUGH PAULA IS MOVING OVER AN AREA\r\nOF HIGH HEAT CONTENT WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...\r\nTHE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHIS WOULD ONLY ALLOW SMALL STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND RESULTS IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nPAULA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES ABOUT 9\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOON...THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS...OR\r\nWITHIN WEAK MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A\r\nDEEPENING TROUGH SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A SLOW EASTWARD TRACK\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE COULD ALSO MEANDER OVER\r\nTHE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR SEVERAL DAYS WHILE\r\nGRADUALLY FADING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. GIVEN SUCH\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER\r\nPORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 18.6N  85.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.9N  86.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  86.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N  84.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-10-12 17:45:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1245 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE ENTERED THE EYE OF PAULA AND\r\nENCOUNTERED STRONGER WINDS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN SET TO 85 KNOTS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY THAT WAS\r\nSCHEDULED FOR 1 PM CDT...1800 UTC.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1745Z 18.8N  85.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 19.9N  86.4W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N  86.5W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N  86.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 22.0N  85.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N  84.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n400 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN MONITORING PAULA AND RECENTLY MEASURED\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 94 KNOTS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EARLIER\r\nSFMR WINDS RANGED BETWEEN 85 TO 90 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF AN EYE\r\nOF 10 N MI IN DIAMETER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN STEADY NEAR\r\n981 MB FOR THE PAST TWO FIXES...PERHAPS INDICATING THAT THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION HAS ENDED. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS\r\nOUTSTANDING WITH A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST BUT LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. IN FACT...T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n5.0...OR 90 KNOTS...ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 85 KNOTS. PAULA HAS A SMALL\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO BEFORE IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF HIGH SHEAR IN THE\r\nYUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA. THE\r\nSHEAR AND THE TERRAIN WOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AND SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT\r\n8 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. IN ABOUT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS...PAULA WILL ENCOUNTER THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND EAST OVER WESTERN CUBA.  NOW THAT PAULA IS \r\nSTRONGER...IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE DEEP LAYER FLOW...AND THAT IS\r\nPERHAPS THE REASON WHY MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE\r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE EASTWARD TRACK IN THE LATEST RUNS. IN PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS..MODELS KEPT A SHALLOW CYCLONE MEANDERING OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  NEVERTHELESS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN BEYOND 48 HOURS GIVEN THE EXPECTED COMPLEX FLOW\r\nPATTERN...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE EFFECT OF LAND.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 19.2N  86.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 20.3N  86.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  86.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 22.0N  85.0W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 22.5N  83.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 22.5N  80.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010\r\n \r\nA 1926 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE ISSUANCE \r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A VERY SYMMETRIC HURRICANE...WITH\r\nAN EXTREMELY SMALL EYE.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD PATTERN IN\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT ELONGATED WITH\r\nRESTRICTED OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A 0047 UTC SSMIS\r\nPASS ALSO SHOWS LESS SYMMETRY AND NO EYE FEATURE...HOWEVER THIS\r\nINSTRUMENT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RESOLVE THE TINY EYE.  THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 4.5 AND 5.0...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 85 KT. \r\n \r\nPAULA HAS VERY LITTLE OPPORTUNITY LEFT TO STRENGTHEN.  THE HURRICANE\r\nWILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHEAR...COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR AND\r\nEXPECTED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITHIN THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n  \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR FIXES INDICATE THAT PAULA HAS TURNED\r\nNORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/8.  THE TRACK REASONING\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WESTERLY FLOW NEAR\r\nTHE BASE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN PAULA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...THEN\r\nEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 36 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAST PAULA MOVES AND HOW FAR NORTH THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL GET.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM\r\nARE ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE\r\nGFS WHICH WEAKENS THE HURRICANE VERY QUICKLY SHOWS THE SYSTEM\r\nMEANDERING NEAR WESTERN CUBA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. \r\nTHE UPDATED FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  GIVEN THE COMPLEX SITUATION...LARGE SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...THE TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nLESS CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 19.9N  86.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 20.9N  86.1W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 21.8N  85.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 22.1N  84.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 22.5N  83.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n400 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nPAULA THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOBSERVED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE 96 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO\r\nABOUT AN 86-KT SURFACE WIND. THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE WINDS\r\nOBSERVED WERE 81-82 KT. BASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...ALONG WITH\r\nTHE FACT THAT CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF PAULA HAVE BEEN COOLING\r\nDURING THE PAST 3 HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 85\r\nKT. ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN BY 3 MB SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A FIELD OF\r\nHIGHER ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES...WHICH HAS KEPT THE PRESSURE\r\nGRADIENT NEARLY CONSTANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...\r\nPAULA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED\r\nOVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. BY 36 HOURS...PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nEASTWARD AS THE HURRICANE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER IN THE EXACT TIMING\r\nOF THE EASTWARD TURN. THE OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD...DUE IN LARGE PART TO NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE HWRF MODEL.\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PAULA JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER\r\nAND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS...WHEREAS THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN AND BAM\r\nDEEP MODELS BRING PAULA ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE LATTER\r\nMODEL SCENARIOS SEEM UNREASONABLE AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA...THE KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THAT MODEL AND NEAR THE NORTHERN\r\nCOAST OF CUBA THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERLY\r\nFLOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF 23N LATITUDE AND THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT PAULA MAY WEAKEN SOONER THAN EXPECTED AND BE\r\nPUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE\r\nOVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nPAULA HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY NOW THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS\r\nINCREASED TO NEAR 25 KT AND RECON INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR EXCEEDING 30 KT SHOULD BEGIN TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PAULA DUE TO\r\nVERY SMALL SIZE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IF PAULA\r\nINTERACTS WITH LAND SOONER THAN EXPECTED...THEN MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING WOULD OCCUR...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SMALL SIZE\r\nOF THE WIND FIELD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 20.7N  86.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 21.5N  85.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 22.3N  85.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 23.0N  83.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 23.2N  82.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 22.9N  80.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N  79.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1000 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010\r\n \r\nPAULA IS A SMALLER THAN USUAL HURRICANE AND THE EYE HAS BEEN TRACKED\r\nALL MORNING WITH BOTH WESTERN CUBA AND CANCUN RADARS. THE\r\nHURRICANE...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS AN EXCELLENT PRESENTATION WITH A\r\nCLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION DEFINING THE EYEWALL. VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nSHOW A HINT OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE\r\nPREVIOUS WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER A LITTLE MORE\r\nTHAN 6 HOURS AGO AND CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS. PAULA IS ALREADY REACHING\r\nTHE AREA OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...AND THE FACT THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN CUBA SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW THAT PAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nOR 005 DEGREES AT ABOUT 4 TO 5 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nABOUT TO RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WE ARE\r\nCONFIDENT THAT THE TURN WILL OCCUR SOON...BUT LESS CONFIDENT IN HOW\r\nSHARP IT WILL BE. SOME RELIABLE MODELS MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nEAST ACROSS CUBA AND OTHERS SHOW A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHARP TURN TO THE EAST OVER OR\r\nVERY NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR\r\nDAYS...OR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 21.3N  85.8W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 22.0N  85.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 22.6N  84.8W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 23.1N  83.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N  80.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 22.1N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n400 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE IS CROSSING BETWEEN THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA AND EASTERN\r\nYUCATAN...BUT WITHOUT MODERN TECHNOLOGY NO ONE WOULD KNOW IT WAS\r\nTHERE. \r\n\r\nHAVING SAID THAT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA SHOW\r\nTHAT PAULA HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. THE SHEAR DISRUPTED THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN AND THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING GRADUALLY\r\nDETACHED. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST WITH STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND A SMALL 8 N MI EYE AS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS AND AIRCRAFT DATA STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG SHEAR...AND\r\nTHE EFFECT OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CUBA...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\nPAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER CUBA IN ABOUT THREE\r\nDAYS...POSSIBLY SOONER. \r\n\r\nPAULA MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT NOW IT APPEARS TO\r\nBE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. \r\nTHE HURRICANE ALREADY RECURVED AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER PAULA ON\r\nA GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nSINCE THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS LARGE. IN GENERAL...MODELS\r\nMAINTAIN THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING EASTWARD AND KEEP A WEAK\r\nREMNANT LOW MEANDERING NEAR CUBA. BY THEN...PAULA IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 21.7N  85.6W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 22.1N  85.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 22.7N  84.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  82.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N  81.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  79.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1000 PM CDT WED OCT 13 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS GRADUALLY DETERIORATED THIS\r\nEVENING...THE EYE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY WELL INTACT IN CUBAN RADAR\r\nIMAGERY.  A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nSUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.  THE NEXT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH PAULA AROUND 0900 UTC.\r\n \r\nPAULA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...PRIMARILY\r\nDUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR THAT IS ADVECTING\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nEXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH WESTERN CUBA WILL LIKELY HASTEN THE\r\nDEMISE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE.  PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. PAULA IS FORECAST TO TURN EAST-NORTHEAST...THEN EAST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IF THE HURRICANE WEAKENS FASTER THAN PREDICTED\r\nBELOW...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD IN\r\nNORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE UKMET...GFS...AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT\r\nSCENARIO...BUT LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 21.9N  85.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 22.3N  84.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 22.7N  83.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 22.8N  82.1W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  80.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paula","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n400 AM CDT THU OCT 14 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING AS THE HURRICANE IS ENCOUNTERING 30 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER...RADAR DATA FROM CUBA\r\nSHOWS THAT THE EYE AND EYEWALL ARE STILL INTACT FOR NOW.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT JUST REPORTED THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 999 MB...WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 72\r\nKT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.\r\n \r\nA BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS\r\nTRYING TO STEER PAULA IN A GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS BLOCKING\r\nTHIS MOVEMENT WITH THE RESULT BEING A SLOW INITIAL MOTION OF 050/4.\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nFLOW TO INCREASE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AT THE LOW LEVELS\r\nNORTH AND WEST OF PAULA.  THIS EVOLUTION IS LIKELY TO CAUSE PAULA\r\nTO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nAND THEN POSSIBLY SOUTHWESTWARD.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHEN AND WHERE THIS\r\nDECOUPLING WILL OCCUR.  THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST WEST...WHILE THE\r\nGFDL IS THE FARTHEST EAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN\r\nTHESE EXTREMES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS\r\nALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\n \r\nSHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nPAULA TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER\r\nTODAY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY 48 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN\r\nFASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ONCE IT SHEARS APART.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 22.3N  84.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 22.6N  84.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 22.9N  82.5W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 22.9N  81.1W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 22.3N  80.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paula","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1100 AM EDT THU OCT 14 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE PLANE HAS BEEN REPORTING HOURLY FIXES AND PLENTY OF\r\nWIND OBSERVATIONS. THE CENTER OF PAULA IS STILL UNDER THE\r\nCONVECTION AND CAN BE CLEARLY SEEN ON LA BAJADA RADAR LOCATED IN\r\nWESTERN CUBA. BASED ON SFMR DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED GENEROUSLY TO 60 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS NOT\r\nCOMPLETELY SHEARED YET...BUT WITH THE INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nCOMBINED WITH THE UNFAVORABLE EFFECT OF THE CUBAN TERRAIN AND THE\r\nAPPROACHING COLD FRONT...WEAKENING IS FORECAST. THIS WEAKENING COULD\r\nOCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nPAULA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 5\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A GENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN CUBA. AS\r\nPAULA WEAKENS FURTHER...AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BE FORCED TO MOVE\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD OVER CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN\r\nBY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE COLD FRONT\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS THE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY\r\nALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS...BUT BY THEN PAULA IS FORECAST TO\r\nJUST BE A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 22.8N  84.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 23.1N  83.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 23.0N  82.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  80.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N  80.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N  80.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paula","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF PAULA MOVED OVER CUBA NEAR PUERTO ESPERANZA AROUND\r\nNOON TODAY AND PRODUCED A WIND GUST FROM THE NORTH OF 68 MPH...110\r\nKM/HR...AT THE WEATHER STATION IN LA PALMA. SINCE THEN...THE CENTER\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME GRADUALLY SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WHICH IS TO THE NORTH OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DUE TO BOTH SHEAR AND THE\r\nEFFECT OF LAND. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IN THE AREA JUST MEASURED WINDS\r\nBETWEEN 50 AND 55 KNOTS OVER WATER TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG\r\nTHE NORTH COAST OF HAVANA...BUT THESE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ON THE\r\nHIGH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. PAULA IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES...AND THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nBECOME A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nPAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 090 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE BASE OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. A\r\nGENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...BRINGING THE CYCLONE OVER HAVANA AND CENTRAL CUBA.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CENTER COULD BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED AND MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE\r\nLATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A MORE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK AND THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY EXISTS IF PAULA DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS\r\nTIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND CALLS\r\nFOR A COMPROMISE SOLUTION...KEEPING PAULA ON AN EASTWARD TRACK\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 22.8N  82.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 23.0N  81.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 23.0N  79.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N  78.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N  78.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paula","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 14 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR...AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...AND SATELLITES INDICATE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM PAULA HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE\r\nAPPEARANCE IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS BECOME LESS\r\nDISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE MARKEDLY WARMED. SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO\r\nBECOME ELONGATED WEST-TO-EAST NEAR VERADERO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 40 KT IS BASED ON SFMR REPORTS OF 45 KT FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO.  \r\n\r\nPAULA IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 085/12. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE TROUGH MOVES\r\nEASTWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. THE\r\nRESULTANT SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nBE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY A LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...FLORIDA... AND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE VERY\r\nDIVERGENT NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PROXIMITY TO\r\nLAND WILL CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND THAT PAULA HAS BEEN\r\nEXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST 18 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nNOTE...THE CUBAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE REPORTED THAT A PEAK WIND\r\nGUST TO 65 KT...120 KM/HR...OCCURRED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT\r\nMARIEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 23.1N  81.4W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 23.1N  80.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 23.0N  78.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 22.8N  77.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  77.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paula","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010\r\n\r\nPAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE\r\nHAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM CUBAN\r\nSTATIONS SINCE THE CENTER PASSED HAVANA...AND WHEN THE CENTER\r\nPASSED VARADERO THE REPORTED PRESSURE WAS NEAR 1010 MB.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...\r\nWITH ONLY ONE CLUSTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. \r\nBASED ON THE CUBAN DATA...PAULA IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 085/12.  PAULA IS BEING STEERED BY A\r\nDEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE REMAINS OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING EASTWARD...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nTURNING SOUTHEASTWARD OR SOUTHWARD DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nREMAINS A SIZEABLE SPREAD ON WHEN THE SOUTHWARD TURN WILL OCCUR. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION.  THE TRACK REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPS.\r\n\r\nPAULA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 35-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INTERACTION WITH\r\nTHE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW PRESSURE AREA AFTER 24 HR.  SEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 48 HR...SO THE\r\nREMNANT LOW MAY NOT SURVIVE AS LONG AS CURRENTLY FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 23.1N  80.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 23.2N  79.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 23.0N  77.8W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 22.4N  77.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N  77.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paula","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL182010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA INDICATE\r\nTHAT PAULA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN. THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL\r\nDEFINED AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED. THE REMNANT\r\nLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN\r\nABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PAULA.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 22.8N  79.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 22.5N  78.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-10-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1100 PM EDT WED OCT 20 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE\r\nMAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED...RESULTING IN\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  BASED PRIMARILY ON THE FACT THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS\r\nNOW MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nDESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  RECONNAISSANCE DATA\r\nFROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATED AN INTENSITY NEAR 30 KT...AND IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE\r\nTIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED DURING THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 100/02.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A COL REGION AT THE BASE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND TO THE WEST OF\r\nA SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  GLOBAL MODELS BUILD\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH\r\nLIFTS OUT OF THE REGION AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOW LOOPING MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...\r\nSOUTH...AND THEN SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED DUE TO THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE HWRF WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE YUCATAN\r\nCHANNEL AND THEN TURNS IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD FLORIDA.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE LATTER SOLUTION CANNOT BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED...THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nUW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BEING AFFECTED BY\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES TROUGH.  AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR IN\r\nA DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE\r\nWARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY UNCERTAINTIES IN\r\nTHE FUTURE INTERACTION WITH LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 17.5N  81.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 17.1N  80.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 16.8N  80.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 16.4N  81.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 16.3N  81.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.6N  84.1W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 18.0N  87.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N  90.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n500 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SHEAR SEEMS TO BE RELAXING AS INDICATED BY MOTION OF THE HIGH\r\nCLOUDS...THE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF A\r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...AN AIR\r\nFORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS...AND I WOULD RATHER\r\nWAIT FOR THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nSHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR OR OVER\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO...AND A TRACK A LITTLE BIT MORE\r\nDISTANT FROM THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THESE CONDITIONS\r\nAND THE PREVAILING WARM OCEAN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS\r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND THE HWRF. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135\r\nDEGREES AT 3 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.\r\nLITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...ALL GLOBAL MODELS LIFT OUT THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND REPLACE IT WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS NEW\r\nSTEERING PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO\r\nTHE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND\r\nCONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS\r\nBECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED\r\nNORTHWARD LATER ON.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 17.0N  80.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 16.8N  80.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N  81.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N  81.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N  82.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 17.5N  84.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 19.0N  88.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N  90.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1100 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2010\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOWED\r\nPEAK FLIGHT WINDS OF 40 KT...RELIABLE SFMR VALUES OF 37 KT...AND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB.  BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n35 KT.  THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF INCREASING MASS\r\nOF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL SEEN FARTHER TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES.  OVERALL...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...WITH\r\nMANY CURVED BANDS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.   \r\n\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET IN THE SHORT-TERM.\r\nWHILE SHEAR HAS DECREASED FROM YESTERDAY...THERE IS STILL A FAIR\r\nAMOUNT OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR PRESENT TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THIS DRY AIR WILL HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SLOWING THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT CONTINUES TO BE\r\nADVECTED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BY A TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS FLORIDA. HOWEVER...IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE...\r\nCREATING A RATHER LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD CUT DOWN ON\r\nANY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN IS HIGHER THEREAFTER. THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nSTRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH\r\nIS NOT OUT OF QUESTION IF RICHARD DEVELOPS THE RIGHT INNER CORE\r\nSTRUCTURE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN ERRATICALLY MOVING DURING MOST OF ITS LIFE...AND\r\nA LONG-TERM MOTION IS ABOUT 135/5.  CURRENTLY RICHARD IS UNDERGOING\r\nAN ANTICYCLONIC LOOP AS IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT\r\nSTEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A DISTANT RIDGE OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL ATLANTIC.  BY LATE TOMORROW...RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nKEY FEATURE IN THE LONG-RANGE FORECAST.  GENERALLY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS WITH A STRONG RIDGE...SUCH AS THE GFS/NOGAPS...KEEP RICHARD\r\nON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY HEADING WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS WITH A WEAKER RIDGE...SUCH AS\r\nTHE UKMET/ECMWF...AND TO AN EXTREME DEGREE THE HWRF/GFDL...SHOW THE\r\nRIDGE BEING ERODED RATHER QUICKLY AS A NEW UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVES\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW\r\nSUGGESTING THE WEAKER RIDGE IS MORE LIKELY...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  CONSIDERING THAT THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...\r\nFURTHER NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CURRENT MODEL\r\nTRENDS CONTINUE.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 16.2N  80.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N  80.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 15.9N  80.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 16.0N  81.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 16.2N  82.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 17.4N  85.2W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N  88.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 22.0N  89.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH RICHARD DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT APPEARS\r\nTO BE JUST WEST OF A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION.  THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...A SIGN\r\nOF THE DRIER AIR IN THAT VICINITY.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE INCREASED...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRETCHED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH\r\nWILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING\r\nTHE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.\r\nHOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE\r\nAREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nWHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM\r\nEVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE\r\nIN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE\r\nSTRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT\r\nOVERNIGHT.  GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A\r\nLUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL\r\nBE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST.  THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS \r\nCLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER....WITH\r\nCIRRUS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT IN MOST QUADRANTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLY THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF RICHARD.  HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS MOIST EASTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS.  SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY\r\nFROM LAND...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN THIS\r\nSYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL\r\nREMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK\r\nUNCERTAINTY AND THE HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER LAND INTERACTION.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 16.0N  80.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 15.8N  80.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 15.7N  81.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.9N  81.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.3N  83.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 17.5N  86.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N  88.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 21.5N  89.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 30 KT AND SURFACE WINDS\r\nFROM THE SFMR ARE AROUND 35 KT...WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1007\r\nMB.  BASED UPON THESE MEASUREMENTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGES REINFORCE THIS\r\nASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.  THEY SHOW THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LINEAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nSOMEWHAT RAGGED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER LOCATED TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.\r\n \r\nRECON FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 160/02. RICHARD IS\r\nMEANDERING IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING LOCATED AT THE BASE OF A\r\nTROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES/WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nWILL BUILD EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND PUSH THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH\r\nSOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AT\r\nLATER TIMES...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS NOW CLOSER TO THE MORE\r\nCONSISTENT GLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...SPREAD CONTINUES IN THE\r\nSOLUTIONS EVEN IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT BASED UPON THE TREND IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW\r\nTRACK IS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nVARIOUS ANALYSES INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF AROUND 10 KT OF\r\nSOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER RICHARD.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ALSO ENTRAINING DRY AIR PUSHED INTO THE AREA BY THE U.\r\nS. TROUGH.  BOTH OF THESE FACTORS APPEAR TO BE PREVENTING\r\nINTENSIFICATION AT THE MOMENT.  AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING...AND THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING EMBEDDED IN A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM WATERS\r\nOF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  AS A RESULT OF THIS\r\nEVOLUTION...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING.  THE ONE\r\nCAVEAT TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION\r\nOF THE CYCLONE WITH LAND WHICH COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nLGEM/MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 15.9N  80.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 15.8N  81.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N  81.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N  82.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N  84.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 17.5N  87.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 19.5N  89.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 21.5N  89.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH VERY\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME\r\nESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR HAS\r\nRELAXED A LITTLE BIT MORE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0\r\nAND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE\r\nLAST RECON A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND A WEAK CYCLONE...MICROWAVE DATA\r\nDOES NOT SHOW AN INNER CORE...AND FURTHERMORE...ASCAT DATA SHOW\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KNOTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nGENEROUSLY AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK RICHARD ABOUT 12\r\nUTC.0.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE SHEAR HAS RELAXED AND MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE\r\nAREA...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BEGIN.  RICHARD IS FORECAST TO BE A\r\nHURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\nONCE OVER YUCATAN THE EFFECT OF LAND AND INCREASING SHEAR WOULD\r\nRESULT IN WEAKENING. MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFDL/HWRF PAIR...ARE\r\nNOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING RICHARD AS THEY WERE IN PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE CYCLONE\r\nTO BE CLOSER TO LAND INSTEAD OF OVER THE OPEN NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA LIKE IN PREVIOUS RUNS.\r\n\r\nRICHARD HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WHILE IT IS\r\nSTILL EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THIS STEERING\r\nPATTERN IS ABOUT TO CHANGE AS THE CURRENT TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS\r\nOUT AND BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE.  THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL FORCE RICHARD ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A STRONGER RIDGE\r\nTHAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND CONSEQUENTLY THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT. NONE OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD AND ARE FOLLOWING THE WESTWARD TREND INITIATED BY THE\r\nGFS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 16.0N  80.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 15.9N  80.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.9N  81.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N  83.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N  84.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.5N  87.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 19.0N  90.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 21.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010\r\n \r\nDESPITE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SUGGESTS THAT RICHARD IS BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nINDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT\r\nLEVELS WINDS WERE ABOUT 40 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 35\r\nKT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1006-1007 MB.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM\r\nNORTH TO SOUTH...AND PERHAPS THE CENTER IS TRYING TO REFORM FARTHER\r\nSOUTH.  THE INITIAL WINDS WILL STAY 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nIT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE\r\nTO STRENGTHENING.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS RATHER LIGHT AND DRIER\r\nAIR TO THE NORTHWEST IS GRADUALLY MODIFYING AND IS FARTHER FROM THE\r\nCENTER THAN YESTERDAY.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND TO\r\nTHIS BY INTENSIFYING RICHARD INTO A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL STAY CLOSER AN AVERAGE OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...\r\nTHOUGH THE CATEGORY TWO SOLUTION OF THE GFDL/HWRF IS NOT\r\nUNREALISTIC.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST\r\nBELOW...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN THE 48-HR AND\r\n72-HR FORECASTS UP TO LANDFALL.  AFTER THAT...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE RATHER STRONG OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MAKING RESTRENGTHENING\r\nUNLIKELY. \r\n\r\nA WESTWARD MOTION HAS SEEMINGLY BEGUN WITH RICHARD AS RIDGING IS\r\nBEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE STORM TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS PATTERN...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR CURRENT MODELS TRENDS AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 15.8N  81.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.8N  81.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N  82.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  83.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.6N  85.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N  88.4W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n500 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE OF RICHARD HAS SOMEWHAT\r\nDETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nSHRUNK AND BECOME DISTORTED...WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT IN\r\nTHE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION...ASCAT DATA FROM\r\n1536 UTC CONFIRMS THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION PRESENT ON THE LAST\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST\r\nFROM THE STORM.   DESPITE THESE CONDITIONS...NOAA BUOY 42057 HAS\r\nREPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE WINDS OF 35-37 KT DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  DVORAK VALUES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB... AND 61 KT\r\nFROM THE CIMSS ADT.  GIVEN THE ABOVE DATA...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nSET BETWEEN THE BUOY AND THE SATELLITE DATA TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS CENTER.  THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST...AT\r\nABOUT 4 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON AN\r\nACCELERATING MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DUE TO\r\nRIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE STRONGER\r\nRIDGE...THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO A\r\nTROUGH ERODING THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE.  \r\n \r\nAS FAR AS THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONCERNED...RICHARD HAS\r\nSTRUGGLED WITH DRY AIR AND SOME WESTERLY SHEAR MUCH LONGER THAN THE\r\nMODELS...AND FORECASTERS...EXPECTED.  VISIBLE SATELLITE ALSO\r\nSUGGESTS SOME UNDERCUTTING OF THE CIRRUS LAYER...WHICH MATCHES UP\r\nWITH RECENT G-IV DROPS ON THE WEST SIDE OF RICHARD OF WESTERLY\r\nWINDS FROM 250-300 MB. THESE WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO REVERSE TO AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\nTHIS CHANGE MAY HERALD AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE...WHICH COULD BE\r\nRAPID IN NATURE GIVEN THE VERY LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST AND THE WARM\r\nDEEP WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nINCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS BULLISH AS\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL...WHICH MAKES RICHARD A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO BE TOO\r\nHOSTILE FOR MUCH REINTENSIFICATION OF RICHARD.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 16.2N  81.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.2N  82.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 16.3N  83.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 16.7N  85.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N  86.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 18.2N  89.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  91.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N  92.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 22 2010\r\n\r\nRICHARD REMAINS A RAGGED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nCONVECTION IS IN POORLY DEFINED BANDS EAST OF THE CENTER...AND DATA\r\nFROM A NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV MISSION SHOWS A PRONOUNCED TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE STORM HAS A\r\nLARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  THE AIR\r\nFORCE PLANE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT AND\r\nSFMR-ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 35-40 KT.  BASED ON THESE AND\r\nEARLIER BUOY DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THUS THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER RICHARD WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE GULF RIDGE. THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS\r\nMORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND HOW STRONG RICHARD MIGHT BE AFTER CROSSING BELIZE AND\r\nMEXICO.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY MOTION SOUTH OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK DURING THE FIRST 36 HR COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER\r\nTHE COAST OF NORTHERN HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nWHILE RICHARD HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...\r\nTHE G-IV DATA SHOW A BAND OF WESTERLY WINDS AT 300 MB BLOWING\r\nUNDER THE CIRRUS INTO THE STORM.  THESE WINDS ARE CREATING ABOUT 15\r\nKT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADVECTING VERY DRY UPPER-LEVEL AIR INTO\r\nTHE CORE.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS SHEAR TO DIMINISH\r\nBY SATURDAY MORNING...AND IF THIS VERIFIES RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SHOWING LESS\r\nDEVELOPMENT THAN DURING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES...AND THE GFDL\r\nNO LONGER FORECASTS RICHARD TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE CURRENT STATE OF THE STORM...AND THE INCREASED CHANCE OF\r\nRICHARD INTERACTING WITH NORTHERN HONDURAS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HR.  AFTER EMERGING\r\nINTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...RICHARD IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nPORTIONS ON BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 15.8N  82.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N  83.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N  90.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 20.5N  92.5W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  93.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n500 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH RICHARD REMAINS DISTORTED\r\nWITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER NORTHEASTWARD.  DATA FROM A NOAA RESEARCH MISSION\r\nAND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING RICHARD AS A\r\n40-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF RICHARD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND THERE HAVE BEEN MIXED SIGNALS FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA...WITH DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS SUGGESTING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER AT ABOUT 12000 FT.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 270/7 IS OF LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  A\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  DURING THAT\r\nTIME...RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF\r\nHONDURAS...HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CENTER WILL MOVE\r\nINLAND.   AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD AND MANY OF THE MODELS DISSIPATE RICHARD BEFORE IT ENTERS\r\nTHE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN \r\nADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...AND FUTURE FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE MOVED IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN BATTLING SHEAR AND DRY AIR DURING THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH HAS PREVENTED THE CYCLONE FROM\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOW\r\nTHESE PARAMETERS BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION WITH HONDURAS\r\nCOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND IS NOW ABOVE ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS...WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE\r\nREQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 15.8N  83.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N  84.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.6N  87.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N  89.1W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  91.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  93.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N  94.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT RICHARD IS STRENGTHENING\r\nQUICKLY. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 1000 MB...WITH\r\nFLIGHT LEVELS WINDS TO 72 KT AND SFMR VALUES TO 54 KT. THESE DATA\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS\r\nAPPARENTLY LIGHTENED FROM YESTERDAY WITH NO SIGN OF THE\r\nUNDERCUTTING BENEATH THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW LAYER. GIVEN THE WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE OF\r\nHONDURAS. THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS NOW SHOW RICHARD BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE...THOUGH ODDLY THE HWRF/GFDL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...REMAINING BELOW THE LGEM/SHIPS MODELS BECAUSE OF\r\nPOSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION. RICHARD IS NOT LIKELY TO REINTENSIFY\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO STRONG SHEAR...THUS THE NEW FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE\r\nWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT.  A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED AS\r\nA RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.\r\nTHERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS\r\nFOR A TRACK JUST OFFSHORE OF HONDURAS TOWARD THE BAY ISLANDS...THEN\r\nINTO BELIZE IN 36-48 HOURS.  MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nWHILE THE SYSTEM IS IN THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT\r\nDAYS 3 AND 4...THE FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n \r\nHURRICANE WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR BELIZE LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 15.9N  83.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 16.1N  84.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 16.4N  86.3W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  88.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N  89.6W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N  92.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 20.0N  94.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n500 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF RICHARD IS ON THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF A BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION STILL LOOKING A LITTLE DESSICATED.  BANDING FEATURES\r\nARE MOST PROMINENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THOUGH BANDS OF\r\nRAIN ARE NOW AFFECTING HONDURAS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL\r\nREMAIN 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE EARLIER RECON DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY BECAUSE OF THE PROXIMITY OF RICHARD\r\nTO LAND...AND INDICATIONS FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE THAT THE LOW- AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOT QUITE ALIGNED.  MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE KEEP THE SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HONDURAS TO ALLOW\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL...LGEM...AND\r\nSHIPS MODELS.  THUS...LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NEW\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE MODELS.\r\nDISSIPATION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AFTER\r\nRICHARD ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THIS\r\nSMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT SURVIVE THE TREK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  \r\n \r\nRICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/7 KT.   A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD STEER THE STORM A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A PATH CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY\r\nTOMORROW AND INTO BELIZE LATE SUNDAY.  RICHARD SHOULD TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IN A FEW DAYS AS IT REACHES THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST THEREAFTER.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 16.1N  84.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.3N  85.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N  87.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.8N  88.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N  90.4W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  93.0W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 23 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RICHARD\r\nIS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE PLANE MEASURED MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AT 925 MB...SURFACE SFMR WINDS OF 58-63\r\nKT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 995 MB. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.  A 2259 UTC SSM/IS OVERPASS\r\nSHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE...AND THE PLANE REPORTED A FORMATIVE\r\n20-25 N MI EYEWALL WITH A ROUGHLY 12 N MI RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND. \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE TILT OF THE VORTEX MAY BE\r\nGRADUALLY LESSENING...THOUGH VARIOUS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT\r\nRESIDUAL WESTERLY SHEAR REMAINS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BIT CHALLENGING.  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST\r\nCYCLES...CALLING FOR A LESSER AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION COMPARED TO\r\nEARLIER RUNS. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRY MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL AIR NEAR THE STORM CIRCULATION AND A SOMEWHAT RAGGED\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD ARGUE IN FAVOR OF THIS\r\nTREND.  ON THE OTHER HAND...BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION\r\nWITH LAND...THE RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE DECREASING\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD PORTEND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL IN BELIZE. IF RICHARD SURVIVES ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND...\r\nREGENERATION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE\r\nPROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nWAS INCREASED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST DUE TO CURRENT\r\nTRENDS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER\r\nTHAT.\r\n \r\nUSING RECON FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO SHOULD STEER RICHARD ON A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nCOURSE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE CLOSE TO THE BAY ISLANDS EARLY TOMORROW AND INLAND OVER\r\nBELIZE LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.  AFTER THAT...A WEAKENING\r\nRICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS...THEN A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 16.3N  84.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 16.5N  85.9W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.8N  87.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.1N  89.4W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.5N  90.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.0N  93.0W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 21.0N  94.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n400 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT AN EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO FORM WITHIN A RING OF CLOUD TOPS\r\nWITH TEMPERATURES OF -70C AND COLDER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A\r\nNEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE NOTED IN AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS AND IN\r\nBELIZE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE RICHARD...AND I WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISED IF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE FOUND WITH THIS CYCLONE WHEN\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT ARRIVES AT AROUND 12Z. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SHORT-LIVED AND\r\nRAGGED NATURE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR\r\nIN QUADRANTS...BUT HAS GRADUALLY BEEN IMPROVING AND BECOMING MORE\r\nSYMMETRICAL.\r\n\r\nRICHARD IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT\r\nON RICHARD MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSITUATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THIS MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF RICHARD NEAR THE BELIZE COAST IN\r\nABOUT 18 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN\r\nGUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO ON MONDAY...AND EMERGE OVER THE\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. THE\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 96-120\r\nHOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN OR SOUTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND INTO VERY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WIND CONDITIONS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AT ONLY 5-10 KT RIGHT\r\nUP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS ALONG THE BELIZE-YUCATAN COAST. IF THE EYE\r\nFEATURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED LATER THIS MORNING...THERE ARE NO\r\nPHYSICAL REASONS WHY RICHARD SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY RIGHT UP UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL...ESPECIALLY SINCE WATER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE\r\nARE NEAR 29.5C AND MID-LEVEL HUMIDITIES ARE NEAR 70 PERCENT. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND RICHARD IS\r\nEXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO INHIBIT RE-STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL BE OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DUE TO THE RECENT\r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 16.5N  85.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N  87.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 17.2N  89.0W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.6N  90.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.2N  91.4W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.5N  93.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 21.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Richard","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS\r\nINTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850\r\nMB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  \r\nBELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL.  GIVEN THE\r\nFAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES\r\nLAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE\r\nEXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10.  ASIDE FROM BEING\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.  RICHARD SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nAFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 16.9N  86.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N  88.4W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 17.8N  90.2W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 18.4N  91.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N  93.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 20.5N  94.5W    20 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 21.5N  95.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Richard","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n400 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010\r\n \r\nRICHARD APPEARS TO HAVE INTENSIFIED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nHURRICANE REPORTED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT EXITING\r\nTHE EYE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED\r\nWAS 69 KT.  HOWEVER...THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS ISSUES MEASURING THE\r\nSURFACE WINDS IN AREAS OF SHALLOW WATER SUCH AS IS THE CASE JUST\r\nOFF THE COAST OF BELIZE.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED\r\nFROM A DROPSONDE WAS 981 MB.  BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE AND\r\nBELIZE RADAR IMAGES...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  SINCE THE CENTER WILL BE CROSSING THE COASTLINE IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS...SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NOW\r\nUNLIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  STEADY WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE AFTER\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO\r\nEMERGE INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A\r\nCONSIDERABLY WEAKENED STATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND STRONG\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nRICHARD HAS BEEN MOVING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...OR\r\nABOUT 285/11.  A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CAUSE SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.    THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE\r\nDIVERGENT AFTER A DAY OR SO...REFLECTING AN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE STEERING CURRENTS.  HOWEVER...SINCE RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE REDUCED TO A WEAK CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...IT SHOULD THEN BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH\r\nDIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 17.2N  88.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 17.6N  89.4W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N  90.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 18.7N  91.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 19.5N  92.5W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 21.3N  94.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 23.0N  96.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Richard","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-10-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD MADE LANDFALL AROUND\r\n0045 UTC ABOUT 20 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY.  THE EYE\r\nACTUALLY BECAME BETTER DEFINED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...AND IT DOES NOT YET APPEAR THAT RICHARD HAS BEGUN TO\r\nWEAKEN.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN VERY SOON AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES FURTHER INLAND.  RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION BEFORE IT ENTERS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY NIGHT OR\r\nEARLY TUESDAY.  MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER\r\nAIR SHOULD KEEP RICHARD FROM RE-STRENGTHENING ONCE BACK OVER WATER. \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWEAKENS RICHARD TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND NOW INDICATES\r\nDISSIPATION BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RICHARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER FORWARD\r\nMOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ONCE RICHARD BECOMES A WEAK\r\nCYCLONE IT SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THEREAFTER...LEANING TOWARD A SCENARIO SUGGESTED BY THE \r\nSHALLOW BAM MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 17.3N  88.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.6N  89.7W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.2N  91.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.2N  92.2W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 20.4N  93.3W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 22.5N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Richard","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-10-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n400 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE INDICATE THAT RICHARD\r\nIS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND HAS FALLEN BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE\r\nEYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED...AND THE INNER-\r\nCORE IS LOSING DEFINITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55\r\nKT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE TODAY AS THE STORM REMAINS INLAND. ALTHOUGH RICHARD IS\r\nFORECAST TO ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR. THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE STRONG OVER THE CYCLONE BY 72\r\nHOURS...THEREFORE...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS SHOWN AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...RICHARD...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS\r\nOTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 17.6N  89.6W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.1N  90.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.9N  91.8W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  92.9W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 21.1N  93.9W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Richard","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-10-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1000 AM CDT MON OCT 25 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND ENHANCED INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW VERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. \r\nALTHOUGH RICHARD SHOULD ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 18 HOURS OR SO\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A VERY WEAKENED STATE...AND SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR ALONG WITH DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE REGENERATION.  RICHARD IS\r\nLIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nABOUT 285/7.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 17.8N  90.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 18.4N  91.1W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 19.5N  92.2W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 20.7N  93.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 21.8N  94.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Richard","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-10-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n400 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010\r\n\r\nA SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING.  HOWEVER...\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED FROM THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE GULF...IT\r\nSHOULD BE A VERY WEAK CYCLONE AND THE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE\r\nREINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RICHARD BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO BUT THIS EVENT COULD VERY WELL OCCUR\r\nSOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WHICH IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK.  BY TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY RICHARD OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IN\r\nRESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE MODEL TRACKS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 18.1N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 18.8N  92.3W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 20.0N  93.4W    25 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 21.2N  94.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 22.0N  95.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Richard","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-10-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1000 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2010\r\n \r\nRICHARD BARELY REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ONLY A SMALL AREA OF\r\nSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER LAND OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  IF NEW CONVECTION DOES NOT DEVELOP\r\nNEAR THE CENTER SOON...RICHARD WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS RICHARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE\r\nOVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUESDAY.  A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RICHARD TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 18.4N  91.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 19.1N  92.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N  93.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 21.5N  94.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Richard","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-10-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n400 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RICHARD HAS EMERGED INTO THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE.  THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND\r\nWHAT CONVECTION THAT REMAINS WITH THE CYCLONE IS WELL INLAND OVER\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.  STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  IF CONVECTION\r\nDOES NOT RE-DEVELOP DURING THE UPCOMING DIURNAL MAXIMUM...THIS\r\nCOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  RICHARD OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 19.4N  92.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 20.3N  93.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 21.9N  94.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Richard","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-10-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL192010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192010\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010\r\n \r\nRICHARD LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PROHIBIT REGENERATION.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 KT ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  THIS\r\nMOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RICHARD.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE\r\nREMNANTS OF RICHARD...THE LOW...NOT THE FORECASTER...CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...\r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 20.4N  93.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 21.6N  93.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 23.2N  94.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Shary","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-10-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION\r\nTO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE\r\nOF HOURS.  THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT\r\nAT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC.  BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE\r\nBUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE\r\nEIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SINCE THERE IS\r\nENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20.  IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.\r\nSHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nTHE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nMOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nFUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY.  THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  FOR NOW THE SLOWER\r\nSOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nDECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 27.3N  63.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 29.6N  65.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 32.8N  63.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 35.5N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 39.3N  54.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 43.5N  45.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Shary","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-10-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n500 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF SHARY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED...A LARGE BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS FORMED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nSYSTEM ALSO LOOKS A LITTLE MORE TROPICAL THAN EARLIER AS ITS\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS INCREASING AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS LESS DISTORTED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB/SAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS LEFT FOR ANY INTENSIFICATION IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF MARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AS THE STORM\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  SHARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS AND SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT IS ABSORBED\r\nINTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY\r\nSHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  NOTE THAT THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nBOTH SHOW SHARY BECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH\r\nSEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY STRONG SHEAR FORECAST AT THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 325/16...A BIT SLOWER THAN\r\nEARLIER. SHARY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY\r\nEARLY SATURDAY AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH COLLAPSES AS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nSWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM...THOUGH THE\r\nSPEED DIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE NEW FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER\r\nSIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS OF THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF...AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 28.5N  65.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 30.8N  65.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 33.9N  62.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 37.7N  56.3W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 42.5N  48.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Shary","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-10-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 29 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE 325/08\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHARY HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS DROPPED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR SHIFTING FROM AN EASTERLY TO NORTHERLY DIRECTION...\r\nCAUSING THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER. DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS ALSO\r\nWRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS...RESULTING IN\r\nEROSION OF CONVECTION IN THOSE AREAS. THE INITIAL ESTIMATE REMAINS\r\nAT 35 KT FOR THIS BASED ON SHEAR-PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.0/45 KT FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08. SHARY IS POSSIBLY PREPARING\r\nTO MAKE A SHARP CUSP IN THE TRACK...AND A TURN TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE SMALL\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING THE SHORT TERM MOTION\r\nWEAKENS AND/OR DISSIPATES. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD-MOVING\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE\r\nCYCLONE BY 24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATE SHARY RAPIDLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nTRACK SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR JUST MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME AND REMAIN BELOW 10\r\nKT FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS WHILE SHARY REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS\r\nNEAR 26C. THE LOW SHEAR AND COOLER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES\r\nALOFT...AS NOTED IN THE 11Z BERMUDA UPPER-AIR SOUNDING...SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO RE-DEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...RESULTING\r\nIN SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...HOWEVER...\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD KICK IN AND HELP THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER TEMPERATURES. THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS MAKE SHARY A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS\r\nEXCESSIVE GIVEN THE VERY COOL SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING\r\nOVER AT THAT TIME. AS A RESULT...THOSE INTENSITY FORECAST SCENARIOS\r\nHAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 29.6N  66.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 32.2N  64.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 35.6N  60.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 39.9N  52.9W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 45.0N  43.5W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Shary","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-10-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SHARY MEASURED\r\nA MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 993 MB...MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68\r\nKT...AND A MAXIMUM SFMR ESTIMATED WIND OF 53 KT.  A SUBSEQUENT\r\nASCAT OVERPASS AT 1442 UTC INDICATED BELIEVABLE WINDS IN THE 45-50\r\nKT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS\r\nSTRONG SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH...SHOULD IMPACT THE CYCLONE SOON. IN ADDITION...SHARY IS\r\nCURRENTLY OVER ABOUT 25 C WATERS AND WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nNONETHELESS...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC\r\nENHANCEMENTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SHARY TRANSITIONING\r\nTO A POST-TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BECOMING\r\nABSORBED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nSHARY IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 11 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS STEERED BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 30.9N  65.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 33.1N  62.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 36.8N  56.8W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 41.3N  48.9W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Shary","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-10-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING AND HAS EXPANDED A BIT\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nEARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nWITHIN THIS PARTICULAR AREA WERE 73 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL...AND 60 KT\r\nBASED ON AN SFMR WIND ESTIMATION.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SHARY IS MOVING\r\nWITHIN A REGION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...NOW 20-30 KT...AND\r\nIS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE SHEAR\r\nALONG WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING\r\nBERMUDA...AND INTERACTION WITH SHARY SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. \r\nTHE FSU CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAMS FOR THE GFS/UKMET/CMC\r\nUNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT SHARY WILL COMPLETE THE TRANSITION TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHEASTWARD...050/18.  THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nTROPOSPHERIC FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MAKES ITS\r\nTRANSITION TO A NON-TROPICAL LOW.  THE LIFE EXPECTANCY OF\r\nPOST-TROPICAL SHARY SHOULD BE SHORT...AS ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL\r\nZONE IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND THE UKMET...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 31.9N  63.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 34.5N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 38.2N  51.7W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Shary","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-10-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nSHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING.  THE LATEST SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME\r\nMORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM\r\nOVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE\r\n37-GHZ CHANNEL.  WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER\r\n...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL. \r\nTHE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL\r\nINCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT. \r\nNORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH\r\nDISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS.  IT IS\r\nHARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS\r\nTHE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT.  THIS IS A GOOD CASE\r\nOF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE\r\nTHE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE. \r\n\r\nTHE TRMM PASSES AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT\r\nSHARY HAS ACCELERATED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW SPEEDING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW. A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHARY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nWITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE ABSORBING THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION...AND THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION AND THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. SHARY SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN\r\nSOON DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COOLER THAN\r\n76F. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 33.6N  59.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 35.7N  54.6W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 38.5N  48.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Shary","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-10-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nSHARY REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF A\r\nSTRONG COLD FRONT.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nSHARY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL EYE...ESPECIALLY IN THE 85-GHZ\r\nCHANNEL. ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...SHARY IS BEING\r\nHELD AT HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR THIS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MICROWAVE\r\nPRESENTATION AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND\r\nOVER COOLER WATER.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW SHARY INTERACTING\r\nWITH THE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOMING ABSORBED ALONG THE\r\nBOUNDARY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS SHOW LESS INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT AND MOVE SHARY\r\nSLOWLY EASTWARD.  THE LATTER SOLUTIONS APPEAR UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE USUALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n055/35. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL SHARY BECOMES\r\nABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 35.9N  55.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 38.0N  50.5W    55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Shary","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-10-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL202010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL202010\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT IS NOW\r\nINTERACTING WITH SHARY AND THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS\r\nSUGGEST THAT CYCLONE HAS TRANSITIONED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...SHARY IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS STORM\r\nFROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL STORM IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 42 KT.\r\nTHIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nABSORBED BY THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 39.2N  50.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 42.8N  44.2W    55 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-10-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nVIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS\r\nFOUND A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nAND UNCONTAMINATED SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. AS A RESULT...ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN INITIATED ON TROPICAL\r\nSTORM TOMAS...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2010 SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/15...DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY\r\nOF REFORMATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITHIN THE CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IS LOCATED\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST...WHICH ALLOWS A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS\r\nACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...THE BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA. THE\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE TOMAS ON\r\nMORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5...A SECOND MUCH\r\nDEEPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nAND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND CAUSE THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING\r\nCURRENTS TO WEAKEN. THE RESULT SHOULD BE A SHARP DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED BY 120 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS...WHICH ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS THE GFS...\r\nECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER AND\r\nSMALLER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nRECON AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS ARE NOT YET VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WHICH SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER...WITH A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 998 MB...VERY MOIST MID-LEVELS...AND LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH FOR TOMAS TO INTENSIFY AT A\r\nFASTER THAN NORMAL RATE. WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY INDICATING RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THESE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nINTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 11.1N  57.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 12.0N  59.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 12.9N  61.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 13.5N  64.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 14.1N  66.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 14.8N  70.4W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.2N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N  76.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-10-30 00:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n800 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010\r\n \r\nON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61\r\nKT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS AROUND 50 KT.  THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED\r\nFASTER THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND A SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA.\r\n\r\nBUOY 41101 IS ALREADY REPORTING SEAS OF 13 FT WELL NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...REQUIRING AN EXPANSION OF THE 12-FT SEAS RADII.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0000Z 11.6N  57.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 12.0N  59.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 12.9N  61.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 13.5N  64.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 14.1N  66.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 14.8N  70.4W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.2N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N  76.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-10-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 29 2010\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE 0000 UTC SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61\r\nKT AND SFMR MEASUREMENTS BETWEEN 50-55 KT...ALBEIT IN SOME HEAVY\r\nRAIN...ON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THAT TIME WITH A PROMINENT BAND FORMING\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nRAISED TO 55 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTOMAS IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IN ALMOST ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...AND THE CYCLONE APPEARS AS THOUGH IT IS GOING THROUGH A\r\nPERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  SHIPS RI GUIDANCE IS INDICATING\r\nAT LEAST A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...NEARLY ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INTENSITY\r\nLEVELING OFF OR ONLY INCREASING MORE MODESTLY THROUGH 120 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE\r\nCARIBBEAN BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND IT\r\nIS NOT OBVIOUS AT THIS POINT WHAT MIGHT LIMIT THAT TREND.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW STEADY STRENGTHENING TO\r\nCATEGORY 3 STRENGTH BY DAY 4 AND REMAINS ABOVE ALL THE RELIABLE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE REFORMED TO THE NORTH EARLIER THIS\r\nEVENING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/14.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AS AN ARTIFACT OF\r\nTHE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL ALL\r\nSUPPORT A RELATIVELY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES AND SHOW TOMAS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  THESE ARE USUALLY THE MOST\r\nTRUSTWORTHY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFAVORS THEIR SCENARIO...LYING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 12.2N  58.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.0N  60.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.7N  62.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 14.2N  65.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N  67.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 15.0N  71.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-10-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT. AN\r\nEARLIER GAP IN THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS FILLED IN\r\n...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT. ALSO...IMAGERY FROM THE RADAR\r\nON MARTINIQUE AND A 0624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGEST THAT AN EYEWALL\r\nMAY BE FORMING. BASED ON THESE TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 60 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER THIS MORNING TO GET BETTER\r\nINFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED\r\nINTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID INTENSITY INDEX\r\nSHOWS A NEARLY 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25-KT INCREASE IN 24 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL...BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS...\r\nSHOWS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD SLOW THE\r\nRATE OF INTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY\r\nRELAX AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE RELIABLE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK BASED ON THE RECENT TRMM PASS...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13. TOMAS IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS\r\nFROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC \r\nLIFTS OUT...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF TOMAS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING IN\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND POTENTIALLY A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN. THE TRACK MODEL ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD WITH\r\nTHIS CYCLE...BUT THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD\r\nOUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS WHICH REMAIN\r\nFARTHER SOUTH. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS QUITE SLOW\r\nDUE TO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE\r\nPOTENTIAL NORTHWARD TURN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 12.9N  59.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 13.5N  61.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 14.1N  63.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 14.6N  65.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.1N  68.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 15.5N  71.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 16.0N  73.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 16.5N  74.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-10-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS\r\nTHIS MORNING FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT IN\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH SEVERAL 64-66 KT RELIABLE SFMR\r\nWINDS. IN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL INDICATED\r\nA SURFACE WIND OF 72 KT. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND PROFILES\r\nSUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LESSER SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF AROUND 66\r\nKT. A COMBINATION OF THIS DATA EASILY SUPPORTS A 65-KT HURRICANE...\r\nAND TOMAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/13. THE LATEST RECON FIX\r\nPOSITIONS HAVE COME IN RIGHT ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. \r\nUPPER-AIR DATA FROM SAN JUAN REVEALED 30-METER 500 MB HEIGHT\r\nINCREASES DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH CLEARLY INDICATES THAT\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS HAS STARTED AS THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT HAS CAPTURED HURRICANE SHARY LIFTS RAPIDLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN REGION. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE\r\nBUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72-96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE TOMAS ON A MORE\r\nWESTERLY TRACK...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A\r\nBROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. WEST\r\nCOAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAYS\r\n2-3 AND THEN DIG MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER THAT...AND INTO THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY DAY 5. THIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nRESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE\r\nAND A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WEAK FLOW REGIME SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...\r\nAND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTOMAS HAS DEVELOPED A 30-40 NMI DIAMETER EYE NOTED IN RECENT RADAR\r\nIMAGES FROM MARTINIQUE. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE. A COMBINATION OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED FEATURES ALONG WITH DEEP WARM WATER AHEAD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...WESTERLY 300 MB WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND INDUCE SOME\r\nSHEAR ON TOMAS...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. \r\nUSUALLY WITH WESTERLY SHEAR COMES DRY AIR MID-LEVEL AIR...AND THIS\r\nINHIBITING FACTOR WAS CLEARLY INDICATED IN UPPER-AIR DATA WEST OF\r\n65W LONGITUDE THIS MORNING. BY 72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS TOMAS SLOWS DOWN...AND A INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO RESUME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nLAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS...WHICH MAKES A TOMAS A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 13.3N  60.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 13.8N  62.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 14.4N  64.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 14.8N  67.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 15.2N  69.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 15.6N  72.3W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 16.0N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 16.5N  75.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-10-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT IN\r\nTHE NORTH QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT 60 KT SURFACE WINDS.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB. THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN RADAR\r\nIMAGERY FROM MARTINIQUE...AND THE CYCLONE NOW POSSESSES A CLOSED 25\r\nN MI DIAMETER EYE. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW BASED ON SOME OF THE DAMAGE\r\nREPORTS THAT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM HAM RADIO OPERATORS ON ST.\r\nLUCIA AND ST. VINCENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09. TOMAS REMAINS ON TRACK...\r\nAND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES\r\nFOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP TOMAS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTO WESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER...A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND PINCH OFF A\r\nCLOSED LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 120\r\nHOURS. THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND LOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EROSION OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREATER ANTILLES\r\nRIDGE AND CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING TOMAS TO SLOW DOWN\r\nCONSIDERABLY AND BEGIN TO MOVE POLEWARD. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO EXCEPT FOR\r\nSPEED DIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nWITH A CLOSED EYE AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...TOMAS IS\r\nFORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE WEAK\r\nWESTERLY 400-300 MB WINDS UNDERCUT THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW LAYER AND\r\nENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST COMBINE TO INTERRUPT\r\nTHE STRENGTHENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...BY 48-72 HOURS...ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TOMAS TO\r\nRESUME STEADY INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS\r\nARE FORECASTING STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS...BUT THAT IS\r\nBELIEVED TO BE DUE TO ERRONEOUS MODEL-INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING TOMAS AS A RESULT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK BEING ABOUT 120 N MI NORTH OF THE LARGE SCALE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE GFS MODEL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND LAST TWO GFDL MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 13.5N  61.4W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 14.0N  63.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 14.5N  65.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 14.9N  67.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 15.2N  69.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 15.7N  72.4W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N  74.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N  74.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-10-30 22:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n600 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA INDICATE THAT\r\nTOMAS HAS STRENGTHENED...WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80 KT.  THIS SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY IS ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2200Z 13.5N  61.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 14.0N  63.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 14.5N  65.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 14.9N  67.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 15.2N  69.7W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 15.7N  72.4W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 16.0N  74.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 16.5N  74.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-10-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 30 2010\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE TIME THE ST.\r\nLUCIA WEATHER SERVICE REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS ON THAT ISLAND OF AT\r\nLEAST 80 KT AROUND 2130 UTC.  AN EYE HAS NOT BECOME ESTABLISHED ON\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS WELL DEFINED IN RADAR\r\nDATA FROM MARTINIQUE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT SINCE\r\nTHERE ARE NO OBVIOUS RECENT CHANGES...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD\r\nBE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST\r\nATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SOLUTION...BUT THERE IS MUCH GREATER SPREAD AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL SUPPORT A STRONGER MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND MOVE TOMAS ON A WESTWARD OR\r\nJUST SOUTH OF WESTWARD MOTION ON DAYS 2-4.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN\r\nSHOW TOMAS MOVING WELL NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BY DAY 5...AND THE HWRF\r\nSHOWS THE CYCLONE STALLING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE\r\nLATTER THREE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO COME\r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MORE SOUTHERN BATCH\r\nOF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING BEYOND ABOUT\r\n90 KT.  THE 200-MB FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD BE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY IF TOMAS MAINTAINS A MORE\r\nSOUTHERN COURSE.  HOWEVER...CROSS-SECTION ANALYSES OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nDOES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE VORTEX COULD BECOME A LITTLE TILTED\r\nOVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHEAR BELOW THE\r\nOUTFLOW LAYER.  BECAUSE OF THESE MIXED SIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS\r\nAND ESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE INTENSITY FAIRLY STEADY THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 13.6N  62.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 14.0N  63.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 14.6N  65.9W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 14.9N  68.0W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 15.0N  69.7W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 15.0N  72.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  74.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-10-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ALONG\r\nWITH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...INDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85\r\nKT IS BASED ON A 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 97 KT AND A\r\nMAXIMUM SFMR READING OF 85 KT. HOWEVER...DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT AND A 0350 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS\r\nTILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS IMPACTING THE CYCLONE AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL ANALYSIS\r\nWHICH IS BASED ON ATMOSPHERIC FIELDS FROM THE GFS MODEL. IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL ALL SHOW SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FROM 24 TO 72\r\nHOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING...AND ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE WEAKENS TOMAS. ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSHOW THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS WEAKENING DURING\r\nTHIS PERIOD. GIVEN THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW A SLIGHT\r\nDIP IN THE INTENSITY AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...BUT REMAINS WELL ABOVE\r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE. AROUND 96 HOURS...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AND\r\nALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AS INDICATED BY THE LGEM. \r\n\r\nBASED ON RECENT FIXES TOMAS IS A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST AND THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/7. TOMAS\r\nIS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF TOMAS AND SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AS\r\nA LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA...\r\nRESULTING IN A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AND SOME GAIN IN\r\nLATITUDE. HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5\r\nDUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHWARD\r\nTURN AS TOMAS INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION...BUT\r\nIS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE IN DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...UKMET AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH ARE ALL EVEN FARTHER\r\nSOUTH. AT DAY 5...A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS SHOWN...BUT\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST ARE LOWER THAN\r\nUSUAL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 14.0N  62.9W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 14.4N  64.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 14.8N  66.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 15.1N  68.4W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 15.1N  70.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 15.0N  72.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  73.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 16.5N  74.0W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-10-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 31 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS GENERALLY DECREASED DURING\r\nTHE LAST FEW HOURS AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS\r\nORGANIZED. IN ADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES NO LONGER SHOW AN\r\nEYE. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 80\r\nKT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE NEXT AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE\r\nINTENSITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  A GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN\r\nPLACE TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS.  SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN SHOW A SOUTH\r\nOF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME.  IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO...CAUSING THE RIDGE TO ERODE.  TOMAS IS FORECAST\r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT FEELS THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH.  THE LATEST\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE LAST CYCLE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH TOMAS LIES OVER AN AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AS SHOWN BY\r\nMODEL CROSS SECTIONS COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN FACT...SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...ECMWF...AND GFDL...SHOW THE VORTEX\r\nTILTING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT.  THIS RESULTS IN THE\r\nWEAKENING OF THE HURRICANE IN THOSE MODELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS BUT REMAINS HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DURING\r\nTHAT TIME. A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 14.0N  63.7W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 14.5N  65.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 14.9N  67.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 15.0N  69.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N  70.6W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N  72.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N  73.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N  73.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-10-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT\r\nTOMAS HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE MORE.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MAXIMUM\r\n850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT...AN SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 64\r\nKT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 994 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING TOMAS AS A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE...280/10.  TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN DUE\r\nTO A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN\r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE\r\nDIFFERENCES AS TO WHERE AND WHEN THE NORTHWARD TURN OCCURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO\r\n4 DAYS...AND THEN LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST TRACK TO\r\nCOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...ECMWF...AND\r\nUKMET MODELS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM\r\nFORECAST POINTS ARE OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.\r\n \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR CONTINUE\r\nTO IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND IS ONCE AGAIN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...BRINGING TOMAS\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  BEYOND A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE TOMAS REMAINS OVER\r\nFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS RESPOND\r\nAND SHOW THE SYSTEM INTENSIFYING IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY RANGE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 14.4N  64.9W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.7N  66.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 15.0N  68.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N  69.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 15.0N  71.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 15.3N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 16.0N  73.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  72.5W    90 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-11-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 31 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA...PARTICULARLY A 0045 UTC SSMIS PASS...\r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT\r\n140 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND HAS BEEN MOVING A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO\r\nT3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5/3.5 FROM SAB...AND T3.4/4.3 FROM THE\r\nADT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 55 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS...BUT\r\nADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE WHEN THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATES THE CYCLONE LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nSIGNIFICANT MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN REQUIRED TO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BELOW THE\r\nOUTFLOW LAYER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT TOMAS FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND ALL THE INTENSITY\r\nMODELS ARE SHOWING CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...LEVELING THE\r\nINTENSITY AT 40 KT BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS.  THIS IS STILL ABOVE\r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION\r\nTHAT TOMAS COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 72 HOURS...AND\r\nTHERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR TOMAS TO RESTRENGTHEN...POSSIBLY\r\nBACK TO HURRICANE INTENSITY...OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF TOMAS HAVE BECOME\r\nINCREASINGLY DECOUPLED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 270/13. \r\nTHE SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION HAS CAUSED THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK TO BE A LITTLE SOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF TOMAS...BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSPEED DIFFERENCES MAINLY ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. \r\nTHE GFDN AND HWRF ARE STILL THE FASTEST MODELS...BUT THEY HAVE BEEN\r\nJOINED BY THE ECMWF...MAKING A FASTER SCENARIO A LITTLE MORE\r\nCREDIBLE BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 14.2N  66.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 14.4N  68.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 14.7N  69.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 14.8N  71.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 14.8N  73.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 15.1N  74.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 16.5N  74.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 20.0N  72.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-11-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED MOTION TO 260/12\r\n \r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nDIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LOWER- AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPACT TOMAS.  CONSEQUENTLY THE CYCLONE REMAINS HIGHLY\r\nDECOUPLED AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI\r\nWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SFMR OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS DECREASED\r\nTO NEAR 45 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS 20 TO 25 KT OF\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ABOUT\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR TOMAS TO REGAIN\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\nTHIS IS WELL ABOVE THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nGFDL MODEL FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG TOMAS WILL GET IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE MOTION IS JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 260/12.  A WEAKENING LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM SHOULD PRODUCE A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION WITH DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  IN 72 TO 96 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A LARGE\r\nAMPLITUDE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN TOMAS NORTHWARD\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE\r\nEARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT\r\nIN RECENT FIXES.  AS NOTED EARLIER...THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT\r\nAMONGST THE TRACK MODELS ON THE GENERAL TRAJECTORY OF TOMAS DURING\r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THERE ARE STILL\r\nSUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED FORWARD SPEEDS.  DUE TO\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTIES ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK...PARTICULARLY THE TIMING OF THE 4 AND 5 DAY POINTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 13.8N  67.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 14.1N  69.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 14.3N  71.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 14.4N  72.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 14.6N  73.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  74.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N  74.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 21.5N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-11-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM AST MON NOV 01 2010\r\n \r\nTOMAS IS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nDISPLACED MORE THAN 100 MILES TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. HOWEVER...A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY\r\nFORMED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES CONTINUE TO FALL...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST\r\n12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/12. A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nHEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY...A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS LOW OR TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THIS\r\nOCCURS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL\r\nWEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND THEN CAUSE TOMAS TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...MAINLY DUE TO THE\r\nRECENT SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...IT ENDS UP ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD CAUSE\r\nA LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC\r\nAND OCEANIC PARAMETERS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING.  ALL OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOWS TOMAS RE-INTENSIFYING...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME. THE NEW WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 13.6N  68.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 13.7N  70.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 13.8N  72.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 14.0N  73.3W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 14.3N  74.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 15.2N  74.8W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N  74.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 21.5N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-11-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM AST MON NOV 01 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF TOMAS\r\nTODAY...IT IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND LACKS BANDING. VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW A SERIES OF ARC CLOUDS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF DRY AIR NEAR THE CORE. AN ASCAT\r\nPASS AROUND 1400 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE.\r\nSINCE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTOMAS IS STILL MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/10. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY MID TO LATE\r\nWEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN\r\nAND THEN MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER... A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST AS TOMAS BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nLEFT ONCE AGAIN THROUGH 72 HOURS....AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR A BLEND\r\nOF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nDRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THIS UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT MUCH\r\nSTRENGTHENING. AFTER THAT TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE\r\nANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AND MODEL CROSS SECTIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE STORM TO GAIN STRENGTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 13.4N  69.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 13.4N  71.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 13.7N  73.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 14.0N  74.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 14.3N  74.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 15.1N  75.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N  73.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N  71.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-11-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM EDT MON NOV 01 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF TOMAS OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED AT ONE\r\nPOINT THIS EVENING...BUT A LINEAR BAND HAS RECENTLY RE-DEVELOPED\r\nABOUT 60-90 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.6/2.7 FROM THE OBJECTIVE\r\nADT.  ALTHOUGH WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE\r\nCYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24-36 HOURS.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE...AND TOMAS WILL BE MOVING OVER A REGION OF INCREASED\r\nOCEAN HEAT CONTENT.  ALL THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT TOMAS SHOULD\r\nRE-STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT IT COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 3.  THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE NEW INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND\r\nNO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS CEASED MOVING\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 270/10.  TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS...IN ITS WEAKENED STATE...SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO.  ONCE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN...THE DEEPER\r\nVORTEX SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH.  SINCE THE HWRF AND GFDN APPEAR TO BE NORTHERN OUTLIERS AND\r\nTHE NOGAPS DOES NOT EVEN PULL TOMAS OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...\r\nGFDL...AND UKMET.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE\r\nWEST ON THIS CYCLE...MAINLY IN THE DAY 2 AND 3 TIME FRAME...AND THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 13.5N  70.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 13.7N  72.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 13.9N  73.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 14.2N  74.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N  75.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  75.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 18.5N  73.5W    80 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 21.0N  70.5W    70 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-11-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010\r\n\r\nTOMAS HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN INCREASING NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  ENHANCED IR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  ON THE FINAL PASS\r\nOF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OUTBOUND FROM THE CENTER\r\nOVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED\r\nSURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 44 KT.  THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nUPWARD...TO 45 KT...ON THIS ADVISORY.  TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND ALTHOUGH\r\nSOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM...THE\r\nSHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nBRINGS TOMAS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE RELIABLE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER FIXES...THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING\r\nWESTWARD...OR ABOUT 270/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE.  TOMAS SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY 72-96 HOURS...THE\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE\r\nDEEPENING CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nTROUGH COULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP TOMAS. \r\nTHEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD\r\nLINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE\r\nWESTERLIES EVENTUALLY CARRY IT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THAT\r\nPOSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 13.5N  72.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 13.7N  73.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 14.0N  74.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 14.4N  75.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N  75.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N  75.2W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  72.5W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N  70.0W    60 KT...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-11-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010\r\n \r\nTOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A\r\nLARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA.  HOWEVER...THE STORM HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 KT AROUND 0800 UTC.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS THIS AFTERNOON. \r\n   \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOISTENING.  THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED\r\nWITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FAVOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IN\r\nFACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX GIVES A 48 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS NOW AT OR JUST ABOVE THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  AFTER A FEW DAYS...LAND INTERACTION...DRIER AIR...AND\r\nSOME INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...270/9.\r\nA TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A STRONG\r\nTROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...\r\nTOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nTROUGH. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL\r\nNOT COMPLETELY CAPTURE TOMAS AND THERE REMAINS A LARGE DISAGREEMENT\r\nIN THE FUTURE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE DURING THAT TIME PERIOD AND IS NEAR A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 13.5N  72.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 13.7N  73.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 14.1N  75.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 14.6N  75.8W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 15.2N  76.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 17.2N  74.9W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 20.0N  72.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 22.5N  69.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-11-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS FOUND THE\r\nSTORM WEAKER THAN IT WAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A SOMEWHAT\r\nELONGATED CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS\r\nSUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF TOMAS HAS ALSO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.\r\n \r\nTHE CONTINUED WEAKENING...OR AT LEAST LACK OF STRENGTHENING...OF\r\nTOMAS IS LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...SOME WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND PERHAPS THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTH AMERICA.\r\nHOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE EXPECTED\r\nFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nFOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS CONTINUES WESTWARD\r\nAT AROUND 12 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nEARLIER. A STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SWING EASTWARD INTO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nTOMAS IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IN THE 2 TO 4 DAY PERIOD. BY DAY 5...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH FLATTENING AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND.\r\nTHE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 13.5N  74.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 13.8N  75.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 14.2N  76.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 14.7N  77.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 15.3N  76.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 18.1N  74.8W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 21.0N  72.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 22.5N  70.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-11-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OVERALL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THOUGH A CURVED BAND HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER-DEFINED RECENTLY.  MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER\r\nIS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THAT BAND...AND REMNANTS OF THE OLD\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN BE SEEN NORTHWEST OF ARUBA.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY FROM 35-55 KT...AND NO CHANGE WILL BE MADE\r\nTO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 35 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nWILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS TO CHECK ON THE STATUS OF TOMAS.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE RATHER FAVORABLE\r\nFOR FUTURE INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER FOR\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IT IS UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER...IF TOMAS CAN TAKE\r\nADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS.  A LOOK AT GLOBAL MODEL CROSS-\r\nSECTIONS SHOW A TILTED VORTEX INITIALLY...WITH THE GFS/UKMET\r\nSUGGESTING A MORE FAVORABLE VERTICAL VORTEX STRUCTURE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS ONE\r\nOF THE FEW MODELS THAT PREDICTED THE WEAKENING OF TOMAS IN THE\r\nEASTERN CARIBBEAN...HAS A QUITE DIFFERENT SCENARIO WITH A GOOD DEAL\r\nOF TILT REMAINING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE\r\nIN WINDS UNTIL AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LEAVES THE CARIBBEAN. \r\nWITH SUCH DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE...THE NEW FORECAST IS ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nAN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/7.  A CONTINUED\r\nSLOW-DOWN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY AS RIDGING WEAKENS TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF TOMAS.  A DEEP LAYER LOW ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TURN TOMAS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST\r\nON THURSDAY.  WHILE THE MODELS TAKE VARIOUS SPEEDS AND ROUTES TO\r\nGET THERE...THEY REMAIN FOCUSED IN THE DIRECTION OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nHAITI.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GENERALLY\r\nLIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE HWRF AND GFDN\r\nHAVE A RATHER DEEP AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...WHICH APPEAR TO BE\r\nOUTLIERS AND BIASING TVCN...THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL...TOO FAR\r\nTO THE NORTH.   \r\n  \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 13.7N  75.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 14.0N  75.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 14.4N  76.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N  76.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 19.0N  73.9W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N  71.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 22.5N  69.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Tomas","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-11-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS A COUPLE\r\nOF HOURS AGO FOUND AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH NO\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT EITHER THE 925 MB FLIGHT LEVEL OR THE\r\nSURFACE.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...TOMAS IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.   THE PERIPHERAL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW ORGANIZATION WITH FRAGMENTED OUTER BANDS...BUT\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. \r\nTHE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN. \r\nPRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM THE UW/CIMSS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH\r\nOF AN INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION.  THE CIRRUS\r\nMOTIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THIS WOULD\r\nNORMALLY BE CONSISTENT WITH LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR.  AMSU\r\nAREA-AVERAGED WIND SHEAR DERIVED BY CSU/CIRA...HOWEVER...INDICATE A\r\nRECENT INCREASE IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OVER TOMAS.  THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY AS GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT DECREASING SHEAR\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO\r\nCALL FOR TOMAS TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING\r\nLAND.  GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE THUS\r\nFAR...THIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE NOAA G-IV\r\nJET IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND\r\nTOMAS WHICH SHOULD GIVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE DYNAMIC AND\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING\r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE MINIMUM PRESSURE...SO THERE IS SIGNIFICANT\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION.  OUR BEST\r\nGUESS AT THE LATTER IS 285/4.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. \r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH\r\nLIFTING OUT AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND OVER THE SUBTROPICS FOR A FEW\r\nDAYS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TO\r\nTHE RIGHT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...\r\nFLOODING...AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 13.5N  75.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 13.8N  76.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 14.4N  76.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 15.3N  76.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 16.8N  75.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 20.0N  73.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 21.5N  71.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 22.0N  69.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Tomas","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-11-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010\r\n \r\nTOMAS IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DATA FROM THE NOAA\r\nG-IV JET INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME PART OF AN ELONGATED AREA\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE THAT INCLUDES AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER JUST\r\nNORTH OF PANAMA.  AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS HAS BEEN\r\nLOSING DEFINITION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE WHETHER\r\nTOMAS STILL HAS ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE FIRST 72 -96 HR\r\nOF THE FORECAST.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT\r\nMOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HR...WITH A GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUING\r\nTHROUGH 72-96 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES\r\nDIVERGENT.  THE GFDL STALLS THE CYCLONE JUST WEST OF HAITI.  THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS FORECAST TOMAS TO SHEAR OFF WITH THE REMNANT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD.  FINALLY...THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF CALL FOR A CONTINUED EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FROM\r\n96-120 HR AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  OVERALL...THE\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  FIRST...THE CYCLONE NEEDS TO\r\nSURVIVE ITS CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION.  IF THAT OCCURS...\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR OR SO IF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CAN CONSOLIDATE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nASSUMES BOTH OF THESE THINGS WILL HAPPEN...AND THUS CALLS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.  WHILE THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS\r\nSTILL CALL FOR TOMAS TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO DUE TO CURRENT\r\nTRENDS AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...\r\nFLOODING... AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 14.1N  75.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 14.5N  76.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 15.5N  76.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 16.8N  75.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 18.1N  74.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 21.0N  72.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 23.0N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 23.5N  69.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-11-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010\r\n\r\nAFTER STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY THIS MORNING...TOMAS HAS\r\nRE-ORGANIZED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A BETTER-DEFINED CIRCULATION THAN WAS\r\nPRESENT DURING THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT MISSION...ALTHOUGH THE LIGHT\r\nAND VARIABLE WIND CENTER IS STILL RATHER LARGE.  THE PLANE FOUND\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 48 KT BELOW 1500 FT AND ESTIMATED SURFACE\r\nWINDS NEAR 40 KT FROM THE SFMR ABOUT 45 N MI EAST OF THE MEAN\r\nCENTER.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1003 MB.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...TOMAS IS UPGRADED TO A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nWITH THE RE-FORMATION OF THE CENTER TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW AN UNCERTAIN 335/5. \r\nA DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTOMAS TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...WITH\r\nA GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH 72-96 HR. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nA FASTER MOTION IN THE FIRST 72-96 HR.  INDEED THE NOGAPS...WHICH\r\nPREVIOUSLY CALLED FOR TOMAS TO SHEAR APART AND TURN SOUTHWEST...\r\nNOW CALLS FOR THE STORM TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 96 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT.  THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST\r\nTOMAS TO SHEAR APART WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE CANADIAN FORECAST TOMAS OR ITS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS TO REACH NEWFOUNDLAND BY 120 HR.  THE OTHER\r\nMODELS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE RATHER DRASTIC EXTREMES.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SCENARIO OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY OF A\r\nSLOW EASTWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR AT A HIGHER LATITUDE THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT TOMAS IS CONSOLIDATING...LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT\r\nORGANIZATION OF TOMAS ARGUES AGAINST THAT MUCH INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36-48 HR...CALLING FOR TOMAS TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN UNTIL LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA BEGINS.  IT IS\r\nNOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nREACHING LAND AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  AFTER\r\nPASSING HISPANIOLA...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE TOMAS TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nAGAIN CLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL ICON.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...\r\nFLOODING...AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 14.9N  74.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 15.8N  75.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 16.9N  75.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.4N  74.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 20.2N  73.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 23.5N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 26.0N  69.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 26.0N  67.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-11-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010\r\n \r\nDATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TOMAS IS STILL NOT QUITE\r\nALIGNED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THEY HAVE MOVED CLOSER TOGETHER\r\nDURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...AND A 2219 UTC SSMI/S MICROWAVE PASS\r\nSHOWS CONSIDERABLY MORE BANDING THAN THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW DAYS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 40 KT...WHICH IS\r\nNEAR THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR MAXIMA REPORTED BY NOAA.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OF TOMAS\r\nWITH LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATERS.  IN FACT...ALL OF\r\nTHE RELIABLE MODELS THAT DO NOT MOVE TOMAS OVER A SIGNIFICANT\r\nPORTION OF HAITI MAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE WITHIN 36-48 HOURS. \r\nTHE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX ALSO SHOWS A 62 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS\r\nMODEL WAS TOO HIGH YESTERDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS BURNED US BEFORE BY\r\nDOING THE EXACT OPPOSITE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVED\r\nMICROWAVE PRESENTATION...I AM INCLINED TO RAISE THE FORECAST A\r\nLITTLE BIT TO HURRICANE STATUS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR OR\r\nSLIGHTLY BELOW A COMPOSITE OF THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS. \r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A COLD FRONT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nINCREASES.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION REMAINS 330/5...THOUGH THIS IS MORE UNCERTAIN\r\nTHAN NORMAL WITH THE NHC INITIAL POSITION ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE\r\nOF THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  A WEAK RIDGE TO THE EAST OF\r\nTOMAS IS STEERING THE STORM FOR NOW...BUT A RATHER STRONG DEEP\r\nLAYER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW...AND THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nBY EARLY FRIDAY.  TOMAS SHOULD BE ACCELERATING AS IT PASSES NEAR\r\nHAITI AS THE MID-LATITUDE LOW APPROACHES.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES\r\nWERE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST WITH THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS STILL\r\nFOCUSED ON A TRACK TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN HAITI.  AT DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM THE MODELS THAT THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO LOW WILL LEAVE TOMAS BEHIND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...\r\nFLOODING...AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 15.4N  75.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 16.1N  75.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 17.4N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 19.1N  74.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 24.0N  70.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N  68.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  66.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-11-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TOMAS HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 997 MB WITH MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 41 KT.  DESPITE THE AIRCRAFT DATA WHICH ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE VORTEX HAS BEEN TILTED IN THE VERTICAL BASED\r\nUPON  COMPARISON OF EARLIER NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\nGIVEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM THE AIRCRAFT...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 330/06.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nREGARDING THE TRACK OF TOMAS IS UNCHANGED.  TOMAS SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY.  AFTER THAT...TOMAS\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WHILE\r\nACCELERATING.  EVEN THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE LEFT ON ACCOUNT OF THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FACTORS OF MODERATELY LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS\r\nARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF TOMAS...THE VERTICAL\r\nTILT OF THE VORTEX AND THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION MAY\r\nARGUE AGAINST A RAPID INCREASE IN STRENGTH.  INTERESTINGLY...THE\r\nSHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX THAT HAD BEEN SHOWING THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR A 30-KT INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS NOT AS\r\nHIGH AS IT WAS BEFORE.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND ASSUMES THAT THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE\r\nCONDUCIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR STENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO CAUSE WEAKENING...PERHAPS\r\nAT A MORE RAPID PACE THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AT LATER FORECAST\r\nTIMES GIVEN THE STRONG FORECAST SHEAR.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...\r\nWHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES\r\nOVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 15.8N  76.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.0N  76.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 18.8N  75.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 21.0N  73.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N  71.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 26.0N  69.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 28.0N  67.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 28.0N  65.0W    25 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-11-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM EDT THU NOV 04 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  THE\r\nNOAA PLANE HAS MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 44 KT...AND A\r\nRECENT DROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS AROUND 40-45 KT AND A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE BELOW 997 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 350/7.  A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE TOMAS TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO...WITH THE\r\nCENTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER JAMAICA...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...AND\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  AFTER 48 HR...THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nDIVERGENT AND INCONSISTENT.  THE ECMWF SHOWS TOMAS MOVING ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF NOW\r\nCALL FOR TOMAS TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nTROUGH...WHICH IS A MAJOR CHANGE FROM THE 6 HOUR OLD RUNS.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE NOGAPS...WHICH 6 HR AGO WAS CALLING FOR A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION...NOW CALLS FOR AN EASTWARD TURN SIMILAR\r\nTO THE ECMWF.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE\r\nTRACK WILL ALSO BE SHIFTED NORTHWARD...BUT IS WELL SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THIS\r\nPART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nTOMAS IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nAS LONG AS THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.  THIS PART OF THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  AFTER 48 HR...THE\r\nINTENSITY AND EVENTUAL FATE OF TOMAS ARE STRONGLY TIED TO ITS\r\nTRACK.  A NORTHWARD TRACK WOULD RESULT IN A RAPID EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION AND ABSORPTION BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  AN EASTWARD\r\nTRACK WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM NEAR OR JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN\r\nAN AREA OF STRONG WIND SHEAR.  EITHER WAY...TOMAS SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nDURING THIS TIME AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nTHE 120 HR FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND\r\nTHIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...\r\nWHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES\r\nOVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 16.3N  76.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N  75.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 19.5N  74.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 21.8N  73.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 24.3N  71.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 28.0N  69.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 29.5N  66.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 29.5N  63.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":27,"Date":"2010-11-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010\r\n \r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...TOMAS CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH\r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED EAST OF A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL.\r\nDESPITE APPEARANCES THAT THE SWIRL IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER...THE\r\nAIR FORCE C-130 OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN\r\nROTATING AROUND A BROADER MEAN CENTER.  THE RECONNAISSANCE ALSO\r\nOBSERVED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 MB AND EQUIVALENT WINDS AT THE\r\nSURFACE OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS WIND VALUE COULD BE SLIGHTLY\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS 350 DEGREES AT 4 KT AS IT IS PRIMARILY\r\nBEING STEERED TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO SHOULD INDUCE RECURVATURE OF TOMAS TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION OF ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 36\r\nHR OR SO.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nPOINT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 36 HR IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AT 48 HR AND\r\nBEYOND...HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF TOMAS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.\r\nONE GROUP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN...NOGAPS...HWRF...AND GFDL...CONTINUE TO SPEED THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND HAVE IT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS A STRONG COLD FRONT.  ANOTHER SCENARIO...SHARED BY THE\r\nECMWF AND UKMET MODELS...IS THAT THE CYCLONE WOULD BECOME SHEARED\r\nAND SHALLOW...NOT PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH AND FRONT...AND MEANDER\r\nEASTWARD FOR A COUPLE DAYS.  THE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUES...BY\r\nDESIGN...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...WHICH IS NOT VERY LIKELY TO BE\r\nCORRECT.  IN A SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE COMPROMISE...THIS TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS\r\nSOMEWHAT EQUATORWARD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTOMAS HAS ABOUT A DAY OR TWO TO INTENSIFY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...VERY WARM\r\nWATERS...AND A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  BEYOND TWO DAYS...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD EXPERIENCE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS QUITE CLOSE TO A\r\nCONSENSUS OF DECAY-SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS AND NEARLY THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE\r\nTRACK DOES TAKE THE CYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER EITHER EASTERN CUBA OR\r\nHISPANIOLA FOR MORE THAN A FEW HOURS...THE CYCLONE WOULD BE WEAKER\r\nTHAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL...\r\nWHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES\r\nOVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 16.6N  76.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.8N  75.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 20.1N  74.3W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 22.6N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 24.8N  71.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 27.5N  69.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 28.5N  66.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 29.0N  64.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":28,"Date":"2010-11-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SHARP INCREASE IN THE INNER-CORE WIND STRUCTURE AND\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF TOMAS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. ALTHOUGH\r\nBOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THERE\r\nIS ABOUT 12 NMI NORTHEASTWARD TILT TO THE VORTEX...THIS HAS NOT\r\nPREVENTED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM FALLING AND THE WINDS FROM\r\nINCREASING. THE MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE\r\nAIR FORCE WAS 61 KT...AND 58 KT WAS REPORTED AT 700 MB BY THE NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS. MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 56-58 KT.\r\nTHE LATEST NOAA RECON PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 989 MB...AND THAT WAS\r\nWITH 13 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE. A COMBINATION OF THESE DATA\r\nEASILY SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT A WARM SPOT HAS APPEARED\r\nINTERMITTENTLY WITHIN A RING OF VERY COLD TOPS OF -80C TO -85C NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/08. TOMAS HAS NOW MOVED NORTH\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES EAST-WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA. TOMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT\r\nCOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A\r\nDEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nEASTERN U.S....FLORIDA...AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TRACK\r\nMODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THE MODEL TRACKS HAVE EVEN SHIFTED MORE TO\r\nTHE EAST ON THE LATEST FORECAST CYCLE. HOWEVER...AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nHOWLING WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR\r\nAPART TOMAS AND LEAVE BEHIND A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY EASTWARD BY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS TAKE TOMAS OR ITS REMNANTS RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND\r\nMERGE IT WITH A DEEP EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER...THE GFS...ECMWF...\r\nUKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS SHOW TOMAS SHEARING APART AND REMAINING\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS\r\nPREFERRED GIVEN THE EXTREMELY HOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT ARE\r\nFORECAST TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...BUT MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY\r\nINITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nTOMAS HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN OVER 29C SSTS AND IN A\r\nRELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...MID-LEVEL\r\nHUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 40 PERCENT...WHICH COULD\r\nACT TO ERODE THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...BY 48\r\nHOURS THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY AND TOMAS\r\nSHOULD BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS...LGEM...\r\nAND GFDL MODELS. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING\r\nMUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 17.3N  75.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 18.8N  74.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 21.0N  73.1W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 23.4N  71.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 25.1N  70.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 27.2N  67.9W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 28.3N  65.8W    30 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 28.5N  64.0W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":29,"Date":"2010-11-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010\r\n\r\nTOMAS HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS FOUND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 88 KT AND MAXIMUM\r\nSFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 75 KT.  THE LATTER OBSERVATION\r\nAPPEARED TO BE SOMEWHAT OF A SPIKE IN THE RECORD...AND USING A\r\nBLEND OF THE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA GIVES 70 KT FOR THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.   OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A\r\nTRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS TILTED\r\nNORTHWARD AS A RESULT OF SOUTHERLY OR SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR.   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPS APPROACHING -90C.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/08.  TOMAS IS LOCATED ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nAMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED IN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND MOVE ON A\r\nGENERAL NORTHEASTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  AFTER 48 HOURS...TOMAS SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD IN A WEAKER LOW-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AS THE INCREASING SHEAR REDUCES TOMAS TO A\r\nSHALLOWER FEATURE.  THIS IS THE GENERAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE\r\nGFS AND U.K. MET. OFFICE GLOBAL MODELS.  AN ALTERNATIVE EVOLUTION\r\nIS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE ECMWF.  THE\r\nLATTER MODEL SHOWS A STRONGER CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...PRESUMABLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...THAT MOVES MORE\r\nQUICKLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ON THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTOMAS STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN IN AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR...HIGH MOISTURE...AND OVER WARM WATERS.\r\nAFTER THAT...A RAPID INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...NOT TO MENTION DRIER AND COOLER\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME FEATURE IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION...\r\nSHOULD BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WEAKENING PHASE.  THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE BUT ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST...INDICATING\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS AND WEAKENING\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS.  WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS COULD BE\r\nMORE RAPID THAN INDICATED...CONSIDERING THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE\r\nHIGHER THAN 60 KT AFTER 60 HOURS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 18.1N  74.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 19.8N  73.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 22.1N  72.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 24.4N  70.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 25.8N  69.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 27.5N  67.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 28.5N  65.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 28.5N  63.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":30,"Date":"2010-11-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010\r\n\r\nBEFORE IT DEPARTED TOMAS...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD RISEN SLIGHTLY TO\r\n987 MB.  HOWEVER...THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS STILL SUPPORTED\r\nAN INTENSITY OF 75 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOOKING A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA...POSSIBLY DUE\r\nTO THE CIRCULATION OF TOMAS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nHISPANIOLA.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10.  TOMAS IS TO THE EAST OF A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  FOR THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HR...THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN SPEED\r\nBETWEEN THE FASTER GFS/GFDL/HWRF AND THE SLOWER UKMET/ECMWF/NOGAPS. \r\nTHIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  AFTER 36-48 HR...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD\r\nIN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED.  THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...WHICH APPEAR\r\nTO SHEAR TOMAS APART...SHOW A SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF 25N. \r\nTHE GFS/GFDL/HWRF MOVE TOMAS MUCH MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTH OR\r\nNORTHEAST AND ABSORB IT INTO THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEMS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.   THE ECMWF IS IN BETWEEN...SHOWING AN EASTWARD\r\nTURN FOLLOWED BY AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nAND THE ECMWF...AND SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THE THE ECMWF. \r\nTHIS PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nTOMAS STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HR IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nENCOUNTERING INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT INTERACTION WITH\r\nHISPANIOLA COULD SLOW OR HALT DEVELOPMENT.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND\r\nGFDL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE IN\r\n24 HR...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL FOLLOW SUIT.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER HOSTILE ENOUGH\r\nCONDITIONS TO CAUSE WEAKENING REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT\r\nTAKES...AND THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nIN SHOWING A QUICK WEAKENING.  THE FINAL DEMISE OF TOMAS IS\r\nDEPENDENT UPON ITS TRACK...AS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION WOULD LIKELY\r\nLEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND A MORE EASTWARD MOTION TO\r\nDEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO USE\r\nTHE LATTER SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 19.1N  74.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 20.8N  73.4W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 23.1N  72.1W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 25.1N  71.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 26.0N  69.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 27.5N  67.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 28.0N  64.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 29.0N  62.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":31,"Date":"2010-11-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF HURRICANE TOMAS HAS BEEN DISRUPTED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  WHILE SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY HAVE BEEN DUE TO\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT TOMAS\r\nHAS BEEN AFFECTED BY HAVING SOME OF ITS CIRCULATION PASS OVER THE\r\nHIGHER TOPOGRAPHIC REGIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND HAITI.  THE HIGHEST\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS\r\n62 KT WITH PEAK SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT THE SAME.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT AND THIS MAY BE SLIGHTLY GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nAS TOMAS PROGRESSES NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY...IT MOVES\r\nAWAY FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES AND HAS A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nREINTENSIFY.  WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS\r\nFOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECTED VERY STRONG\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND STABLE/DRY ATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO A FAIRLY\r\nRAPID WEAKENING.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODELS AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  ALTERNATIVELY...IF THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS DOES NOT\r\nQUICKLY REORGANIZE...THE SYSTEM MAY SIMPLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM\r\nHERE ON IN.  WHILE THE FORECAST HERE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW AT DAY 4...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT INSTEAD\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW AFTER INTERACTING\r\nWITH THE STRONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 35/12...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF COMBINED INFLUENCE OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE TO\r\nITS EAST AND A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE \r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME\r\nSPEED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 H AND NEARLY ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 36 H...THE MODEL SUITE\r\nSHOWS A TREMENDOUS DIVERGENCE THAT FALLS INTO TWO FACTIONS.  THE\r\nNORTHERN GROUP...WITH MEMBERS AT FIVE DAYS JUST SOUTHEAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...INCLUDE THE HWRF/GFDL/NOGAPS MODELS.  THE ECMWF\r\nLIKELY WOULD HAVE ALSO BEEN EXPLICITLY INCLUDED HERE...BUT IT\r\nBECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AFTER DAY THREE.  THE\r\nSOUTHERN GROUP...WITH MEMBERS AT FIVE DAYS JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCARIBBEAN...INCLUDE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE/UKMET.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCHOSEN LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER BUNCH AND IS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS AN UNREALISTIC PREDICTION...AND\r\nSOMEWHAT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT ALMOST GOES WITHOUT\r\nSAYING...THE EXTENDED FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS VERY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE MOST\r\nSIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 20.3N  73.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 22.0N  72.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 23.9N  71.5W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 24.8N  70.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 25.4N  69.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  67.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 26.5N  63.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 27.0N  61.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":32,"Date":"2010-11-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI NOV 05 2010\r\n \r\nBEFORE DEPARTING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND\r\nOF 57 KT AND A RISING CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAD ALSO BECOME A BIT DISHEVELED EARLIER THIS EVENING\r\n...HOWEVER COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE AGAIN INCREASED NEAR THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT...AND THE\r\nNEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION OVERNIGHT WILL HELP DETERMINE IF TOMAS HAS\r\nWEAKENED BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER TOMAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING\r\nACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA COULD BE PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM\r\nSTRENGTHENING FURTHER. CONSISTENT WITH THIS THINKING...AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS NOW\r\nTILTED NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT. GIVEN THE SHEAR AND THE RAPID\r\nDETERIORATION OF THE MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...TOMAS MAY\r\nHAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR INCREASES\r\nFURTHER...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTHROUGH 12 HOURS FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS\r\nIN 96 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS\r\nDESIGNED TO HANDLE CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT TOMAS IS MOVING MORE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT...OR EASTWARD...THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/11 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nPATTERN...WHICH IS DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC THAT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT CUTS OFF OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE AS TO WHETHER TOMAS WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD\r\nINTO THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH OR BE\r\nSHEARED APART AND MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET\r\nFAVOR THE LATTER SOLUTION AND LIE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GFDL...HWRF AND NOGAPS ARE FARTHER NORTH\r\nWITH A DEEPER CYCLONE. GIVEN THE EXTREME SHEAR VALUES LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD AND AN ENVIRONMENT THAT APPEARS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH\r\nTO BE PULLED TOO FAR NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE\r\nSOUTHERN SOLUTION AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND THE TRACKS OF THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS. AT DAYS 3 AND 4...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. \r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS HAS PASSED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND TOMAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF A\r\nSIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH\r\nCOULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 20.8N  72.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 22.4N  71.7W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 23.9N  70.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 24.7N  70.1W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 25.0N  68.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 26.0N  63.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":33,"Date":"2010-11-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS\r\nFOUND 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KT...PEAK SURFACE SFMR WINDS\r\nOF 50-55 KT....AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT THE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF\r\nA CENTRAL MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nBEEN WARMING RECENTLY. THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SURFACE AND FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTERS ARE MORE ALIGNED THAN THEY\r\nWERE PREVIOUSLY. WITH NO OBSERVATIONS TO SUPPORT HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR FOR UP TO ANOTHER 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...A LOW-LEVEL\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. IS IMPINGING ON THE CIRCULATION OF THE HURRICANE. A\r\nDRAMATIC INCREASE IN SHEAR IS FORECAST AFTER 24 HOURS...AND\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nUNFAVORABLE. WEAKENING SEEMS IMMINENT...WITH THE RATE OF WEAKENING\r\nLIKELY INCREASING AFTER 36 HOURS...GIVEN THE EXTREME AMOUNT OF\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR DEPICTED BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT INDICATES\r\nTOMAS BECOMING A REMNANT LOW SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/13...A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nRESPECT TO THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS IN A DEEP LAYER OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE EASTERN U.S. INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES... WITH\r\nSEVERAL OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING A HEAVILY SHEARED TOMAS\r\nMOVING SLOWLY ON AN EASTWARD TRACK AT THE BASE OF THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC TROUGH. A SECOND CAMP OF MODELS SHOWS A DEEPER CYCLONE\r\nBEING PULLED NORTHWARD AND BECOMING INVOLVED WITH THE BAROCLINIC\r\nZONE ASSOCIATED ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE FORMER GROUP SINCE IT APPEARS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL BE ABLE TO MANTAIN ITSELF AS A VIABLE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR LONG. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT MORE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY MOTION BUT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF TOMAS HAS PASSED NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND TOMAS WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF A\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH\r\nCOULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 21.9N  71.3W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 23.2N  70.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 24.2N  69.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 24.7N  68.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 25.0N  67.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 25.5N  65.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 26.5N  60.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":34,"Date":"2010-11-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010\r\n\r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 69 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF TOMAS...WITH SFMR WINDS\r\nOF 54 KT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THE 990-992 MB\r\nRANGE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL FIXES.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 55 KT.  THE STORM STILL HAS\r\nA SYMMETRIC BANDED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...AND A RECENT WINDSAT\r\nOVERPASS SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE.  HOWEVER...\r\nCOLD-AIR CLOUDS ARE PRESENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING\r\nTHE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/14.  ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TOMAS\r\nSHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AS PRESSURES\r\nRISES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND FALL TO THE EAST OF IT. \r\nAFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER ROUND OF BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD\r\nOCCUR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A NEW DEEP-LAYER LOW\r\nDEVELOPING TO THE NORTH OF TOMAS.  WHILE THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THEY ALL\r\nFORECAST THIS NEW SYSTEM TO TURN TOMAS EASTWARD.  THERE REMAINS A\r\nLARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 48 HR...AS THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF FAVORING A SLOWER MOTION AT LOWER LATITUDE...WHILE\r\nGFDL/HWRF/NOGAPS/UKMET/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN NOW FAVOR A FASTER MOTION\r\nAT HIGHER LATITUDE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THESE\r\nEXTREMES IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...AND IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...AND A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTOMAS HAS BEEN SLOWLY WEAKENING EVEN THOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nREMAINS LIGHT AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HR\r\nOF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE...THERE IS STILL\r\nSOME CHANCE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME.  TOMAS SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF COOLER/DRIER AIR AND INCREASING\r\nWIND SHEAR AFTER 24 HR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY AND POSSIBLY\r\nRAPID WEAKENING.  THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HR AND\r\nTO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TOMAS\r\nCOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INSTEAD OF\r\nDEGENERATION...ESPECIALLY IF IT TAKES A MORE NORTHERLY COURSE AND\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BAROCLINIC LOW.\r\n \r\nTOMAS IS NOW FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH AND EAST THAT THE THREAT OF\r\nWIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS HAS DIMINISHED OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 23.1N  70.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 24.1N  69.9W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 24.8N  69.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 25.1N  68.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 25.4N  66.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 26.5N  62.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N  58.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":35,"Date":"2010-11-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM EDT SAT NOV 06 2010\r\n \r\nTOMAS HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND BRIEFLY AN\r\nEYE MAY HAVE TRIED TO FORM.  A PARTIAL EYEWALL WAS ALSO PRESENT IN\r\nTHE 1743Z AQUA MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER...THIS FEATURE IS NO LONGER PRESENT AND THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE IS SHOWING LESS BANDING CHARACTERISTICS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF\r\nTAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n \r\nDATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 INDICATES THAT THE STRONG COLD FRONT\r\nOFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST IS NOW IMPACTING THE OUTER\r\nCIRCULATION OF TOMAS.  WIND...TEMPERATURE...AND DEWPOINT\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE BUOY SHOWED THAT THE FRONT HAS REACHED THAT\r\nLOCATION.  THE INNER CORE OF TOMAS APPEARS...FOR THE MOMENT...TO BE\r\nUNAFFECTED BY THE COOLER/DRIER AIR.  IT IS LIKELY THAT TOMAS WILL\r\nSOON BEGIN ITS FINAL DEMISE WITH BOTH THE FRONTAL AIRMASS AND\r\nINCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT BELOW BOTH THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD DROP BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AFTER 48 H...BUT COULD OCCUR EARLIER IF\r\nTHE ANTICIPATED VERY STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR REMOVES ALL OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT TOMAS COULD UNDERGO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INSTEAD OF DEGENERATION...ESPECIALLY IF IT\r\nGOES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND MORE STRONGLY INTERACTS WITH A\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nTOMAS IS CURRENTLY MOVING 30/13...AS IT IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED\r\nBY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD RATHER ABRUPTLY DECELERATE AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST IN ABOUT\r\n12-24 H...ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS EITHER DECOUPLED FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OR COMPLETELY ELIMINATED.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD BE ADVECTED TOWARD THE EAST AND THEN THE NORTHEAST BY\r\nTHE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FARTHER NORTH AND\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT NOT AS QUICK AS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 24.2N  70.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 25.2N  69.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 25.6N  68.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 25.8N  67.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  64.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 28.5N  59.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 31.5N  55.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":36,"Date":"2010-11-07 00:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n800 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT\r\nTOMAS HAS RE-INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT\r\nMEASURED A PEAK 700-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 79 KT EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND A MAXIMUM SFMR WIND OF 64 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT FOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE RE-INTENSIFICATION...AND THE RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nMODIFIED ACCORDINGLY. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS INCREASING SHEAR AND\r\nDRY AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT\r\nTOMAS IS MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/13 KT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...OR NORTH...THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0000Z 25.0N  69.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 25.7N  69.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 26.0N  68.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 26.0N  67.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.5N  64.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 28.5N  59.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 31.5N  55.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":37,"Date":"2010-11-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 PM AST SAT NOV 06 2010\r\n \r\nBEFORE EXITING TOMAS...THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A\r\n700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 75 KT...A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 61\r\nKT...AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nINTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70\r\nKT. WHILE THE INITIAL SHEAR VALUES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS ARE\r\n15-20 KT...TOMAS OBVIOUSLY HAS NOT YET FELT THE EFFECTS OF THIS\r\nSHEAR IN THE INNER CORE. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GOES\r\nCLOUD TRACK WINDS SHOW STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DRY\r\nAIR INCHING CLOSER TO TOMAS...AND THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE\r\nMARKEDLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nSHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 50 KT IN 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR...DRIER\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY\r\nWEAKENING...REDUCING TOMAS TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS WITH\r\nDISSIPATION EXPECTED IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AFTER 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS MAY BE SLOWING DOWN...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/9. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE SLOWING TOMAS EVEN FURTHER IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...TOMAS SHOULD BE STEERED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR A DAY OR\r\nTWO BY THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW ADVANCING INTO THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS...AS WHAT IS LEFT OF TOMAS IS PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC LOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION\r\nOF TOMAS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS ALSO\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL BY THAT TIME. IT IS WORTH NOTING\r\nTHAT THE UKMET MAINTAINS TOMAS AS A DEEPER CYCLONE AND TAKES IT\r\nFARTHER NORTHWARD BEFORE MERGING IT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE. HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT TOMAS SHOULD HAVE DIFFICULTY\r\nREMAINING A DEEP CYCLONE DUE TO THE SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 25.2N  69.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 25.8N  69.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 26.1N  68.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 26.5N  66.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 27.4N  63.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 31.0N  57.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Tomas","Adv":38,"Date":"2010-11-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010\r\n \r\nAROUND 06Z...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C\r\nDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A WARM SPOT OR EYE FEATURE BRIEFLY\r\nBECAME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME\r\nFLATTENED ON THE WEST SIDE AS WESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED TO IMPINGE\r\nON THE CYCLONE. A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB ALONG WITH AODT AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES OF T4.3/72 KT\r\nSUPPORT MAINTAINING A SYNOPTIC INTENSITY OF 70 KT AT 06Z.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE TO THE CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD MASS...THE 09Z ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 65 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/06. SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS SUGGESTS THAT TOMAS HAS SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE 06Z FIXES. A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS\r\nINCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A\r\nBROAD EASTWARD-MOVING TROUGH GRADUALLY DECOUPLES THE LOW- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVELS CIRCULATIONS...LEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE\r\nSTEERED EASTWARD BY WEAKER FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. BY 48\r\nHOURS...TOMAS IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS THEN EXPECTED TO BE\r\nCAPTURED BY AND PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS INDICATE 40-50 KT\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE\r\nHIGH-LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER OF TOMAS. AS A RESULT...ASSOCIATED STRONG\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12\r\nHOURS...AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATION SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 48\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nINTENSITY MODELS. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR COULD RESULT IN MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOYS 41047 AND\r\n41047. THE INCREASE IN THE OUTER WIND FIELD IS DUE TO A STRONG COLD\r\nFRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING CLOSER TO TOMAS...WHICH HAS\r\nACTED TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 26.2N  68.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 26.5N  68.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 26.8N  66.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 27.5N  64.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 28.6N  61.3W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 33.0N  55.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":39,"Date":"2010-11-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n1100 AM AST SUN NOV 07 2010\r\n \r\nTOMAS HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS WITHERED AWAY...DUE TO ABOUT 35 KT OF WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...BASED\r\nON A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND WIND REPORTS FROM BUOY 41047.  TOMAS ALSO APPEARS TO\r\nBE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND\r\nSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THE\r\nGFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING FURTHER...TO NEAR\r\n50 KT IN 12 HOURS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL RELATIVE\r\nHUMIDITIES BELOW 40 PERCENT...AND COOL WATERS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTOMAS TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nAN 0624 UTC AMSU OVERPASS AND A 1014 UTC SSMIS IMAGE INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 50 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE.  THESE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT TOMAS HAS SLOWED DOWN\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY AND TURNED NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS...\r\nRESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 005/5.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE IN A MOTION BETWEEN NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF A STRENGTHENING LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. THIS MUCH LARGER LOW SHOULD ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF\r\nTOMAS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 26.0N  69.6W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 26.4N  68.7W    45 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 26.9N  66.5W    35 KT...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 27.9N  63.9W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  61.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 36.0N  57.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tomas","Adv":40,"Date":"2010-11-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL212010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL212010\r\n500 PM AST SUN NOV 07 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MODEL ANALYSES\r\nINDICATE THAT TOMAS HAS ACQUIRED FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS.  COLD AIR\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOW WRAPPING INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION...\r\nAND ANY LINGERING DEEP CLOUDINESS APPEARS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  THEREFORE...TOMAS IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1500 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT\r\nRANGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY.  STEADY WEAKENING OF THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/3.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A MUCH\r\nLARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...\r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 26.1N  69.1W    50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 26.3N  67.9W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 26.8N  65.6W    30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 28.4N  62.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 30.6N  60.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  56.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-05-29 12:00:00","Key":"EP012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010\r\n500 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE\r\nBROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF GUATEMALA HAS DEVELOPED\r\nENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE\r\nFIRST OF THE 2010 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A 29/0323Z ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/05 KT. THE CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED IN BOTH ACTIVE AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...AND INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES SMALL BANDING\r\nFEATURES BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nON THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\nTHIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND\r\nAS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nMOVE ON A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD COURSE...\r\nBRINGING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA\r\nBORDER IN 36 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE\r\nASSOCIATED WEATHER IS WELL AHEAD OF THE CENTER AND IS IN FACT\r\nALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST. THIS TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT THE MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN...DUE TO THE UNLIKELY SHARP\r\nEASTWARD TRACK INTO THE RIDGE AXIS FORECAST BY THE HWRF MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 35-KT WIND VECTORS\r\nIN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THIS CYCLONE MAY\r\nALREADY BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION\r\nIS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 30C\r\nSSTS...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nSHOULD OCCUR. THE PROXIMITY TO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN MAY INHIBIT\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...BUT THIS TREND WILL BE MORE CLOSELY\r\nASSESSED LATER TODAY AS ADDITIONAL SATELLITE INFORMATION BECOMES\r\nAVAILABLE.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...\r\nTHE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL.\r\nTHESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS\r\nFAR INLAND AS HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1200Z 12.9N  93.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 13.0N  93.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 13.3N  92.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 13.7N  91.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 14.4N  91.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.9N  91.2W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASED\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  THAT...COMBINED WITH 35-KT WIND VECTORS\r\nNOTED IN AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS...IS THE BASIS ON WHICH THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AGATHA. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS ELONGATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST-\r\nSOUTHWEST...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED AND ALSO\r\nBECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. AGATHA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nBROAD LOW-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA.\r\nTHE MAJORITY OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nHWRF...IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION TOWARD GUATEMALA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...TVCN...DUE TO THE SHARP EASTWARD TRACK INTO THE\r\nLOW-LATITUDE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE HWRF MODEL...A SCENARIO WHICH\r\nHAS BEEN DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nSINCE AGATHA WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF AT LEAST\r\n30C AND WITHIN A REGION OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING A\r\nNEAR 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...AND THIS POSSIBILITY WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED FOR THE NEXT\r\nFORECAST PACKAGE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND\r\nCONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY\r\nOFTENTIMES WEAKENS.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...\r\nTHE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO BE EXTREMELY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL\r\nSALVADOR...AND AS FAR INLAND AS HONDURAS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 13.1N  93.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 13.4N  92.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 13.8N  91.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 14.3N  91.2W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 14.6N  91.1W    30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N  91.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME\r\nEROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND\r\nTHE TIGHTER BANDING FEATURES NOTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/06 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE\r\nSLOW. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A NORTHEASTWARD OR \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT LIES\r\nALONG 12N LATITUDE. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE\r\nGUATEMALAN COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER LANDFALL...THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH THE LATTER CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA OR THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR SLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nAGATHA MAKES LANDFALL...BUT THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS QUICKLY\r\nCLOSING NOW DUE TO THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID\r\nWEAKENING OF THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AGATHA WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR...WHICH WILL\r\nCONTINUE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM CEASES TO\r\nEXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN...\r\nTHE MAIN IMPACT FROM AGATHA WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE\r\nRAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES\r\nOVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...AND AS FAR\r\nINLAND AS HONDURAS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 13.9N  92.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 14.1N  91.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 14.5N  91.2W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 14.9N  90.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 15.2N  90.8W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT MAY 29 2010\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nAGATHA CROSSED THE COAST EARLIER TODAY ABOUT 330 PM PDT...2230\r\nUTC...IN THE VICINITY OF THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE CYCLONE\r\nDEVELOPED A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION AS IT WAS MOVING\r\nINLAND. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF EL SALVADOR REPORTED STRONG\r\nGUSTY WINDS AND LARGE WAVES ALONG THE COAST EARLIER TODAY WHILE\r\nDATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IN GUATEMALA REPORTED RAINFALL\r\nTOTALS OF UP TO 15 INCHES.  THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS\r\nFROM THE SURROUNDING STATIONS AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. SINCE AGATHA IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nHIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nWEAKENING...AND AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nAGATHA IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nWITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THIS PATTERN TYPICALLY FAVORS A SLOW MOTION\r\nTOWARD NORTHEAST ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DESPITE THE EXPECTED\r\nWEAKENING...THE CYCLONE STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD\r\nPRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED AT THIS\r\nTIME...A FEW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS COULD STILL OCCUR IN\r\nSQUALLS PRIMARILY OVER WATER. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 14.9N  92.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.5N  91.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N  91.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP012010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012010\r\n200 AM PDT SUN MAY 30 2010\r\n \r\nAGATHA HAS MOVED INTO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN IN CENTRAL AMERICA WHICH\r\nHAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...THEREFORE THIS WILL\r\nBE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OVER CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS\r\nOVER MUCH OF GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...WESTERN HONDURAS...AND\r\nPORTIONS OF BELIZE.  ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS\r\nDISSIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH-FLOODS AND\r\nMUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  AS INDICATED IN THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY...MAXIMUM\r\nSTORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 30\r\nINCHES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 15.6N  91.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-06-16 15:30:00","Key":"EP022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010\r\n830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1209 UTC\r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE\r\nGULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER FOR 12-18 HOURS...THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION OF\r\nT1.5 AND AN IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON-LIKE ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED\r\nBY A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND A EASTERLY\r\nFLOW ALOFT.  THIS PATTERN YIELDS A SLOW DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW... AND\r\nHELPS TO EXPLAIN WHY THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE.  THIS IS BORNE\r\nOUT IN RECENT CENTER FIXES WHICH GIVE LITTLE MOTION...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA\r\nINTO THE WESTERN GULF BUILDING WESTWARD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE\r\nDEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST.\r\n\r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR IS LIGHT.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LOWER\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1530Z 14.8N  95.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.8N  96.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N  97.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.2N  98.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  99.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-06-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A PULSATING MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND A\r\nRECENT ASCAT PASS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE 25-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD\r\nOR 310/3 OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT.  THE\r\nMODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM INTERACTS\r\nWITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE\r\nEAST.  THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH MAINTAINS THE DEPRESSION AS A\r\nSEPARATE SYSTEM...TAKES THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD WHILE A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION\r\nOF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE\r\nCENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT NOT BE SO FAVORABLE.  AS A RESULT...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW THIS GUIDANCE...\r\nESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 15.0N  95.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 15.1N  96.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 15.3N  97.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N  98.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 15.7N  99.6W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 16.0N 101.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 16.3N 104.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 16.5N 107.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-06-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 16 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY CHANGED\r\nLITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 25 KT... IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND\r\nAN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. A 2318 UTC SSMIS PASS AND A 2003 AMSR-E PASS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nEDGE OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE\r\nFIXES...AND THE 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 300/6. A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nPREVIOUS ONE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE FEELING SOME EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...BASED ON ITS SATELLITE PRESENTATION. HOWEVER...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IF CORRECT COULD ALLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER\r\nAND REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nSHEAR...POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND CURRENT LACK\r\nOF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 15.2N  96.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 15.6N  97.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 15.8N  98.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 16.1N  99.6W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.4N 100.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 108.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-06-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA...ALONG WITH A 17/0330Z\r\nASCAT OVERPASS AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA...INDICATE THAT TD-02E HAS\r\nDECREASED SOMEWHAT IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...IF ONE EXISTS AT ALL. CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE ABOUT 00Z DUE TO INCREASED\r\nEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM A MASSIVE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION OVER\r\nBOTH THE ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 25 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND SEVERAL WESTERLY 20-25 ASCAT\r\nWIND VECTORS NOTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/08...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW BASED ON\r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE FIXES. ALL OF THE MODELS BUILD A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO NORTHERN CENTRAL MEXICO\r\n...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TD-02E MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT ANY DEVIATION OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD BE INFLUENCED OR EVEN ABSORBED BY A LARGER TROPICAL\r\nDISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED BY A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THOSE TIMES.  \r\n \r\nA BRIEF RESPITE IN THE SHEAR COULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION\r\nIF THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE. BY 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...PROBABLY DUE TO THE\r\nOUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS LOWERED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN LINE WITH THE LGEM AND SHIFOR MODELS.\r\n\r\nIF A WEAKENING TREND BECOMES MORE EVIDENT...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 15.5N  97.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 15.8N  98.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 16.2N  99.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N 101.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 16.8N 102.4W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 105.1W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 108.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-06-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP022010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE \r\nCIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED.  THE GOVERNMENT OF\r\nMEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS \r\nAND THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nREMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH THE MONSOON-LIKE\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 15.8N  98.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-06-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BECOME\r\nPERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF\r\nMANZANILLO THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  A\r\n1215 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB/SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE DEPRESSION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nOVER MEXICO SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH\r\nWOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\nAN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE\r\nMODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MOVED THE PRECURSOR LOW FROM THE\r\nDEPRESSION MUCH TOO QUICKLY TO THE WEST...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT HAS\r\nBEEN ENTANGLED IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.  ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBECOMING A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THAT FEATURE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOT TOO FAR\r\nFROM THE ECMWF MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 15.3N 105.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 15.4N 105.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 15.6N 105.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 15.7N 106.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 15.9N 107.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-06-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 17 2010\r\n\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF BLAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nHAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY. THE SHIP MAERSK SHAHRAN REPORTED\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND A PRESSURE OF 1002 MB AS IT MOVED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF BLAS EARLIER TODAY. THESE DATA...ALONG WITH\r\nINCREASING DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW\r\nSTRONGER EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO THE EAST OF BLAS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN A DAY OR SO. AROUND THAT\r\nTIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING DEEPER INTO AN AREA OF\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND...PRESUMABLY...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF BLAS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE. \r\n\r\nBLAS HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING AT ABOUT\r\n320/3.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGING BUILDING OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH TIME AND\r\nINCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAN EARLIER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO...BUT SLOWER THAN...THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII AND 12 FOOT SEAS INFORMATION HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON\r\nREPORTS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 15.2N 105.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.4N 106.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 15.6N 107.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 16.2N 108.8W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 16.7N 115.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 119.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-06-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 17 2010\r\n \r\nBLAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nWITH BANDING FEATURES CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nSTORM...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING OF BLAS IS FORECAST IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM AS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nIMPACT THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nBLAS APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN FORWARD SPEED...BASED ON\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES AND VERY HELPFUL AMSR-E AND TRMM\r\nPASSES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/4.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO BUILDING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW BLAS TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.   A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST IS FORECAST LATER IN THE PERIOD AS BLAS BECOMES A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM AND IS STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH...TRENDING\r\nTOWARD THE VARIABLE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 15.5N 106.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.8N 106.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.0N 107.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 16.3N 108.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 16.7N 109.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 116.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 120.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-06-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS STILL WELL REMOVED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION. SINCE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 35\r\nKNOTS.  IN FACT...A RECENT ASCT PASS SHOWS MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 30\r\nKNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. BLAS\r\nCOULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED SINCE IT SEEMS THAT STABLE AIR\r\nIS ALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CYCLONE IS NEAR\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  NONE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS INTENSIFICATION.   \r\n\r\nBLAS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nBUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A PATTERN WHICH FAVORS A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  BECAUSE BLAS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...IT MOST LIKELY BE\r\nSTEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 15.8N 106.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N 107.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.3N 108.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 16.7N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 111.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 17.0N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 120.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-06-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010\r\n\r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS BLAS HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR OR EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.  THE STORM\r\nCONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WITH POOR TO FAIR CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HR...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BLAS OVER STEADILY\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM\r\nTO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLING FOR IT TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR AND A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 96 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5.  BLAS IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO...AND THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HR.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING THE CURRENT WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION BECOMING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT\r\nLIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 16.0N 107.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 16.3N 108.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 16.6N 109.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N 111.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 16.9N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 116.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 119.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-06-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BLAS IS LOCATED\r\nAT THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE REGION.  A RECENT\r\nASCAT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS SHOWS 35-40 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE STORM\r\nCONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WITH FAIR CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nPOOR/NONE ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HR.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES BLAS OVER\r\nSTEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE LATTER SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE STORM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLING FOR BLAS TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 48 HR AND\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE BELOW...THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/5.  BLAS REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO...AND THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST WITH LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 72 HR. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY SHOWING THE CURRENT WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION BECOMING WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST\r\nPACKAGE...AND THE FORECAST TRACK NOW LIES ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 16.1N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 16.3N 108.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 16.6N 110.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 16.8N 111.9W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 16.9N 113.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 17.0N 117.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 16.5N 120.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 16.0N 123.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-06-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 18 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nBLAS HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n45 KT.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS.\r\nWHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...BLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER AND\r\nINTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND THE LESS FAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE CURRENT STRENGTHENING...AND BEYOND THAT TIME IS NEAR THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n\r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 285/6. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nREMAINING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD KEEP BLAS ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...BLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nA SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nTVCN CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 16.3N 108.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 16.5N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 16.8N 111.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 112.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 17.0N 114.6W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N 118.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 121.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-06-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BLAS HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nLARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH A SHARP EASTERN EDGE...\r\nAPPEARS SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS AND RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. A 0451 UTC TRMM PASS CONFIRMS THAT BLAS CONTINUES TO SUFFER\r\nFROM THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nSTILL ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CLOUDS.\r\nGIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND\r\nTHE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 3.0/45 KT...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/6.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG DEEP LAYER\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD STEER BLAS ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 36-48\r\nHOURS...WITH A MINOR INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...BLAS\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK AND THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE\r\nTO ANALYZE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL STILL INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLY A RESULT OF BLAS MOVING OUT\r\nOF THE MONSOONAL ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED AND INTO\r\nONE WITH A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLIES. HOWEVER...BEYOND 24 HOURS BLAS\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...WITH THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE LGEM INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 16.4N 109.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 16.7N 110.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 16.9N 112.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 17.1N 115.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 16.9N 119.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 16.0N 126.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-06-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nBLAS IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY UW-CIMSS.  WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED\r\nCLOSER TO THE CONVECTION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nWITH A LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/06.  WHILE THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE\r\nOVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  BLAS WILL\r\nCONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A\r\nSLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...A MOTION\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS\r\nINCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...BUT LIES CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nOBSERVED INTENSITY TRENDS...AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 12 HOURS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL.  WHILE NONE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOWS BLAS REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY...THERE IS\r\nABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT BLAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE BASED ON\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ERRORS.  SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN\r\nBY 24 HOURS AS BLAS MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LESS\r\nFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  BLAS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 OR 5 DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 16.3N 109.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 16.5N 111.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 16.7N 112.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 16.9N 114.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 17.0N 116.8W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 16.5N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 124.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 128.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM AMSU...SSMIS...SSM/I...AND WINDSAT\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BLAS REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS THAT BOTH INDICATE ABOUT 10\r\nKT OF NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER BLAS.  ALSO...THE\r\nCYCLONE APPEARS TO BE INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO\r\nTHE THINNING OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF THE CENTER.  WHILE THE\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED A\r\nLITTLE SINCE EARLIER TODAY...DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.5 FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BLAS HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. \r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A\r\nDRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE PERIOD...\r\nESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING BEGINNING AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LGEM.  BLAS SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES LEND A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/07.  BLAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...BLAS WILL BE STEERED A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION OF THE CYCLONE BEING FARTHER NORTH...AND REPRESENTS A\r\nBLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 16.7N 110.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 17.1N 113.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 17.3N 115.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME LESS CIRCULAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5/35 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE CI-NUMBER FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB REMAIN AT 3.5/55 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50\r\nKT...CONSISTENT WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES FROM TRMM...AMSR-E...AND AMSU CONFIRM THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT BLAS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE WEAKENING. WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES STEADILY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nBLAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE. BLAS IS NOW\r\nFORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/7. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD TAKE BLAS ON A GENERAL WESTWARD \r\nCOURSE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...BLAS...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO TRACK\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST INFLUENCED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 17.0N 111.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 17.2N 112.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 17.4N 114.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 17.5N 116.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 17.0N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 16.5N 126.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 16.0N 130.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TO INDICATE 48 HOUR POSITION AS POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LARGE MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BLAS HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY IN\r\nINTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ALSO BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AND A 0355 UTC\r\nTRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS SLIGHTLY MORE REMOVED FROM\r\nTHE CONVECTION THAN IT WAS EARLIER. BASED UPON ITS CURRENT\r\nAPPEARANCE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF FROM TAFB AND WITH RECENT CIMSS AODT VALUES BETWEEN 2.5\r\nAND 3.0. ALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THERE SHOULD BE\r\nA REDUCTION IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER BLAS DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nLOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTERING A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE. THE ABOVE NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD OVERWHELM ANY\r\nPOSITIVE EFFECT FROM THE LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RESULT IN A\r\nCONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED UPON\r\nCURRENT TRENDS...AND BLAS IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE ABOVE TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT BLAS MAY BE MOVING SLIGHTLY RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW\r\n290/08. MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TROPICAL EAST\r\nPACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER BLAS ON WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS FURTHER AND BECOMES MORE SHALLOW...IT SHOULD BE GUIDED\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 17.5N 112.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 17.7N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 18.0N 115.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 18.1N 117.6W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 119.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 17.2N 123.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n\r\nBLAS HAS A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION BUT THERE ARE NO BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES YIELDS A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE SOMEWHAT...THE STORM IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS.  BLAS IS LIKELY TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS OR LESS AND THEN BE\r\nREDUCED TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nAND REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BLAS SHOULD MAINTAIN A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nMOVES WITH THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WIND FLOW.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 17.6N 113.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 17.9N 114.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 18.1N 116.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 18.1N 118.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 17.9N 120.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n \r\nVERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH BLAS. \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW CELLS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE 1.5 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nON THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH SOME DEEP CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP\r\nWITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM TONIGHT...OVERALL THE CIRCULATION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS BLAS BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS EVENT COULD CERTAINLY OCCUR\r\nSOONER THAN THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION IS NEAR 285/11.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW ON\r\nA MAINLY WESTWARD OR A LITTLE SOUTH OF WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 17.9N 114.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 18.1N 116.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 18.2N 118.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 18.1N 120.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 17.9N 122.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-06-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS LIMITED\r\nIN EXTENT AND IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM'S\r\nCENTER DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THUS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.  THE ENHANCED CONVECTION THIS EVENING\r\nMAY BE THE CYCLONE'S LAST GASP DURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM AS THE SSTS ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nCOLDER WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE.  BLAS IS PREDICTED\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE\r\nCONVECTION DIES OFF TOMORROW MORNING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBASED ON THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 280/12...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nNARROW DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF BLAS.  WHILE A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA AND A CORRESPONDING BREAK IN\r\nTHE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE\r\nWEAKENING SYSTEM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY THEN. \r\nTHE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS AND IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 17.9N 116.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 18.1N 117.7W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 18.1N 119.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 18.0N 121.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 17.5N 124.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-06-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010\r\n\r\nA FEW HOURS AGO...SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE CONVECTION DISSIPATING.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS NEAR 30 KT.  BLAS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nTHROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT...AND IS\r\nNOT LIKELY TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MORE THAN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 275/11.  BLAS REMAINS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SO A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC TRADE WINDS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 18.0N 117.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 18.1N 118.8W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 18.0N 121.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 17.7N 123.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 17.4N 125.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-06-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME MEAGER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF BLAS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE\r\nSYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nBE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD BE\r\nA LITTLE WEAKER.  BY THE END OF THE DAY... BLAS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW DUE TO COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.  A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF BLAS IS LIKELY UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.  \r\n\r\nBLAS REMAINS ON TRACK... NOW MOVING 270/11.  A WEST OR SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION SEEMS PROBABLE AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 18.0N 120.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 17.8N 122.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 17.4N 125.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 127.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-06-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP032010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032010\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010\r\n\r\nBLAS HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION DURING MOST OF\r\nTHE DAY...WITH THE EARLIER SCANT CONVECTION NOW DISSIPATED.  THUS\r\nBLAS NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS\r\nWILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE CIRCULATION OF BLAS\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER THE COOL WATERS AND EVENTUALLY\r\nBECOME JUST A TROUGH IN THE TRADE WINDS IN A FEW DAYS.  GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 17.5N 119.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 17.3N 121.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 17.0N 124.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 16.6N 126.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.2N 128.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-06-19 12:30:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n530 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED\r\nAROUND A LARGE BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED\r\nIN A 19/0805Z AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE ONLY T1.0/25 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT A SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY THAN THE RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/05 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE MOVES THE CYCLONE IN A WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MASSIVE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEST OF\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...OUT OF RESPECT FOR\r\nTHE MORE LOWER LATITUDE AND SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST TRACK. AS A\r\nRESULT OF THE WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...COASTAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT AMSR-E OVERPASS REVEALED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVELS WITH A NEARLY CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE\r\n89-GHZ CHANNEL. BASED ON THIS IMPROVED VERTICAL STRUCTURE...AT\r\nLEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN ORDER FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nOCCURRING DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLOSER TO THE HWRF AND\r\nGFDL...WHICH MAKE THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nSHIPS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MUCH FASTER MEDIUM BAM MODEL TRACK\r\nWHICH BRINGS THIS CYCLONE OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO STRONG\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS MUCH SOONER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK INDICATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1230Z 12.8N  97.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 12.6N  97.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 12.5N  99.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 12.5N 100.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 12.5N 102.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 12.5N 104.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 12.5N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 108.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-06-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A\r\n19/1145Z SSMI OVERPASS REVEALED A SIMILAR LOW- AND MID-LEVEL\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE NOTED IN AN EARLIER AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND SHIP\r\nWKDY LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AT 12Z REPORTED A\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND OF 24 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1007.5 MB...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR OR BELOW 1005 MB.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 12Z FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T1.5\r\nAND T2.0...RESPECTIVELY...BUT SINCE THEN CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED\r\nMORE THAN HALF WAY AROUND THE CENTER YIELDING A DATA T-NUMBER OF\r\nT2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nBEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CELIA. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 245/04 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE PREVIOUS TREND OF\r\nCELIA MOVING IN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO...AND THEN TURNING WESTWARD...IS MAINTAINED BY ALL OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE AS A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN\r\nUNITED STATES ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...TVCN. DUE TO CELIA'S WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...\r\nCOASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n \r\nAS A RESULT OF THE IMPRESSIVE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF CELIA NOTED IN\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS UNTIL DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE\r\nEASTERN QUADRANT...WITH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST\r\nAFTER THAT BASED ON THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF LESS THAN\r\n5 KT FORECAST BY THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. BY 72 HOURS...\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP ACROSS CELIA...WHICH MAY HALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER NEAR-30C SSTS...\r\nLITTLE OR NO WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 12.5N  97.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 12.4N  98.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 12.3N  99.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 12.3N 101.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 12.3N 102.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 12.3N 104.3W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 12.5N 106.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N 109.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA'S APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE\r\nTODAY AS SEVERAL CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE FORMED AND WRAPPED\r\nAROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS\r\nALSO IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...ADT ESTIMATES OF\r\nT2.9/43 KT FROM UW-CIMSS...AND A 3-HR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF\r\nT3.0/45 KT FROM NHC. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE LOW GIVEN CURRENT ORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/06. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. ALL OF THE MODELS MAINTAIN A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CELIA THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND\r\nTHEN ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AFTER THAT TIME AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.\r\nAND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR CELIA TO\r\nGRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE BETWEEN 96-120 HOURS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE CELIA VERY WELL AT 12Z...AND AS A RESULT\r\nMUCH LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THOSE MODELS WHICH TAKE A MUCH WEAKER\r\nCYCLONE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...ECMWF...CANADIAN...\r\nGFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nCELIA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF POTENTIAL RAPID INTENSIFICATION BASED ON\r\nTHE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING AND THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nSMALL CDO FEATURE. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SHARPLY INCREASES THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR TO 20-25 KT THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS APPEARS TO\r\nBE DUE IN PART TO THE GFS MODEL'S POOR 12Z INITIALIZATION. THE\r\nOTHER MODELS ONLY INDICATE 10-15 KT 200-MB WINDS ALONG CELIA'S\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS 5 KT OR\r\nLESS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...COMPARED TO THE SHIPS-GFS ANALYSIS OF\r\n10-15 KT.  GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR AND CURRENT TRENDS...RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A\r\nLEVELING OFF BETWEEN 24-72 HOURS AS EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AGAIN...\r\nWHICH MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 12.4N  98.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 12.3N  99.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 12.2N 100.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 12.2N 101.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 12.2N 103.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 12.3N 105.3W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 12.5N 107.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 110.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECT SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\n\r\nCELIA HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE\r\nOCCASIONAL GLIMPSE OF AN EYE TRYING TO FORM INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHILE\r\nAMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-70 KT.  THE ATTEMPTS AT EYE\r\nFORMATION SUGGEST AN INTENSITY NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THESE\r\nESTIMATES...ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT YET PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO\r\nJUSTIFY CALLING CELIA A HURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/7.  ALL OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS MAINTAIN\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CELIA THROUGH 96 HR... AND THEN\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY ERODE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S.\r\nAND BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD FOR 72-96 HR...WITH A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GFS STILL APPEARS TO TAKE\r\nCELIA TOO FAR SOUTH DURING THE FIRST 48 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT LIES NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 72 HR AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nCELIA IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...\r\nCIRRUS CLOUDS BLOWING INTO THE CDO FROM THE EAST SUGGEST VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING...AND THAT MAKES IT UNCERTAIN HOW LONG THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE.  WHILE THE GFS MODEL STILL\r\nFORECASTS CELIA TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR DURING THE 12-48 HR\r\nPERIOD...IT IS FORECASTING LESS SHEAR THAN 6 HR AGO.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING CELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 96 HR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFDN\r\nKEEP CELIA A TROPICAL STORM FOR MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH ONLY\r\nTHE GFDL FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HR.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BUT AT A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IF THE SHEAR TURNS OUT TO BE LESS\r\nTHAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 12.1N  98.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 11.9N  99.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 11.8N 101.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 11.7N 102.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 12.0N 105.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 12.5N 108.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n \r\nCORRECT INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 KT TO 55 KT\r\n\r\nENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nIN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nHAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. WITH NO \r\nIMPROVEMENT NOTED IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND A TAFB DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nUNCHANGED AT 55 KT.\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT CELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN\r\nMOVING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 265/8. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER\r\nCELIA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nCELIA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG\r\nTHE UNITED STATES WEST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND CELIA SHOULD\r\nRESPOND BY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH A\r\nBIT FASTER AFTER 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT TOOK PLACE EARLIER HAS SLOWED...\r\nPOSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES.  THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO\r\nPREVENT FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48\r\nHOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FACE OF OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. THE GFS\r\nMODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL RESPONDS BY MAKING CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 60\r\nHOURS...EARLIER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND\r\nGFDN CALL FOR NO APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION...WITH ONLY THE GFDL\r\nFORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS THE REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nINDICATING A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES\r\nFASTER THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 12.0N  99.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W   100 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF CELIA DURING THE\r\nLAST COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AROUND 3.5 AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF A EYE\r\nBEGINNING TO FORM WITHIN THE CDO...BUT BOTH THE SHIPS AND UW-CIMMS\r\nANALYZE ABOUT 15 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AND IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE EAST OR\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR TO GRADUALLY RELAXING OVER CELIA IN\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...SHOWING GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF NEAR 100 KT IN 3 OR 4 DAYS.  SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAY 5...AS CELIA WILL LIKELY BE \r\nAPPROACHING COOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...ONLY THE\r\nGFDN SHOWS CELIA REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN 36 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/07.  CELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAMPLIFYING OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ALONG 125W BY THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD...AND THIS MAY ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS A\r\nBLEND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCLUDING\r\nTHE GFS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST\r\nOF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 11.9N 100.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 11.7N 101.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 11.6N 102.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 104.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 12.3N 107.8W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 13.5N 111.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 15.0N 115.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS INTENSIFIED.  A SSMIS\r\nPASS FROM 1450 UTC SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL AND\r\nAN EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  ALSO...\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS\r\nHAVE BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED SINCE THIS MORNING.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE TRENDS AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF 4.0 FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENT THAT HAS\r\nBEEN AFFECTING CELIA WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE OTHERWISE\r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND\r\nIS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  A BROAD PEAK IN\r\nINTENSITY IS INDICATED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY SOME\r\nWEAKENING BY DAY 5 AS CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF\r\nCOOLER WATERS AROUND THAT TIME.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SHIPS\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25\r\nKT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ONLY A 2 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE IN THAT PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF CELIA MOVED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONG TERM INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 260/6.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...AS CELIA WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST BY THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT WAS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL\r\nPOSITION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS EXCLUDING THE GFS...WHICH AGAIN\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WERE EXPANDED\r\nBASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1640 UTC.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 11.6N 100.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 11.4N 101.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 11.4N 102.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N 103.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 11.6N 105.1W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N 108.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 13.5N 112.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 116.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-06-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY\r\nBASED ON DATA T-NUMBERS OF T4.5/77 KT USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER\r\nPATTERN. A 21/0007Z SSMIS OVERPASS INDICATED A NEARLY CLOSED\r\nEYEWALL IN THE MID- AND LOW-LEVELS...AND AN INTERMITTENT\r\nCLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS BEEN NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONINGS OVER THE PAST 24\r\nHOURS. CELIA IS BEING STEERED IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION BY AN\r\nEAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.\r\nTHIS DEEP-LAYER FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS...AFTER WHICH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OFF THE\r\nU.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND ALLOW CELIA TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED DYNAMICAL MODELS...\r\nEXCLUDING THE GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BE A SOUTHERLY OUTLIER.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE CIRRUS STREAMERS\r\nFROM A LARGE DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX LOCATED EAST OF CELIA\r\nBEGINNING TO UNDERCUT THE HURRICANE OUTFLOW LAYER. AS A RESULT...\r\nSOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DISRUPT THE\r\nHURRICANE SOON...POSSIBLY EVEN HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.\r\nBY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND THE\r\nOTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO\r\nDECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW\r\nENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING TO RESUME.\r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND AT DAY 5 MAY BE PREMATURE IF CELIA DOES NOT\r\nREACH COOLER WATER AS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...AND IS\r\nMARKEDLY HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 11.6N 100.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 11.5N 101.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 11.5N 103.1W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 11.6N 104.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 106.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 12.6N 109.7W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 13.8N 113.5W   105 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 15.5N 117.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-06-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010\r\n \r\nON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF CELIA HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A PARTIAL EYEWALL.   DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nUNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED\r\nAT 70 KT.  WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES\r\nIMPINGING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF CELIA AND INHIBITING THE OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW\r\nDECREASING EASTERLY SHEAR LATER IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER COOLING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION BY THAT TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT ABOVE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES INDICATE A SLIGHT NORTHWARD JOG AT AN INCREASED\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  AFTER SOME SMOOTHING AND USING CONTINUITY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED VALUE...THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n275/8.  A 500 MB RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MAINTAIN A MAINLY WESTWARD MOTION OF\r\nCELIA FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  AFTERWARDS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SOMEWHAT.  THIS\r\nWOULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 72\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND SLIGHTLY NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY REVISED INTIAL MOTION. \r\nTHIS IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT\r\nEXCLUDES THE FORECAST FROM THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS AN UNREALISTIC\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 11.8N 102.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 11.9N 103.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 12.0N 104.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 12.1N 106.4W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 12.3N 108.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 111.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 16.0N 119.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-06-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 21 2010\r\n \r\nA VERY RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS HAS BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN\r\nDETERMINING THE CENTER LOCATION OF CELIA. THE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE THAT HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT.\r\n \r\nIT SEEMS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE\r\nFOR HALTING THE INTENSIFICATION SEEN YESTERDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nPREDICT DECREASING UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES DURING THE COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN\r\nBEFORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE TO\r\nAROUND 85 KT IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE THE HWRF AND LGEM SHOW A PEAK\r\nABOUT 10 KT LOWER.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS AT OR ABOVE THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...CELIA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATERS WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/7. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME...ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO GAIN A LITTLE\r\nMORE LATITUDE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 11.8N 102.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 11.7N 103.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 11.7N 104.9W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 11.8N 106.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 12.1N 108.4W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 13.0N 112.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 16.0N 120.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-06-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE 1200 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS \r\nSOME TILT TO THE HURRICANE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO BE\r\nSOMEWHAT NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  A HINT OF AN EYE HAS\r\nBEEN SEEN IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT HAS NOT BECOME APPARENT\r\nIN INFRARED IMAGERY.  T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH THE OBJECTIVE AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE HAVE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE\r\nTHE BASIS FOR RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE...INDICATING A CONTINUATION OF MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nDECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nCONDITIONS BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND PEAKS CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n2-3 DAYS.  THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH IS ONCE AGAIN A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN \r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED \r\nTO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING...\r\nHOWEVER IT TAKES THE HURRICANE INTO COOLER WATERS SOONER THAN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...AS ITS TRACK IS WELL NORTH \r\nAND EAST OF THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES PROVIDE A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.  THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST OR\r\n270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nFROM THIS MORNING.  CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nRIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO\r\nTURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 11.6N 103.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 11.5N 104.4W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 11.5N 105.8W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 11.5N 107.5W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 11.8N 109.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N 113.4W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 117.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-06-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010\r\n \r\nBD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT IMAGES AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E AQUA-1 MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY REVEALS NEW DEEP CONVECTION FORMING JUST TO THE EAST AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE EYE...WHICH APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT THE\r\nPERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FINALLY BACKING OFF.  THE\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO DEPICTED A WELL DEVELOPED PRIMARY\r\nBAND RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS\r\nFURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE EYEWALL IS IN FACT REFORMING.\r\nSUBSEQUENT SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AS\r\nWELL...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL FURTHER DECREASE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. \r\nAFTERWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND COMMENCES BY DAY 3...AS CELIA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND MOVES WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC OCEAN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER CELIA IN A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nUNANIMOUSLY AGREE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE WESTERN EXTENSION\r\nOF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 11.7N 103.9W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 105.1W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 11.9N 106.6W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N 108.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 12.3N 110.6W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 13.3N 114.5W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 14.9N 118.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-06-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010\r\n\r\nCELIA IS EXHIBITING A RATHER CIRCULAR-LOOKING COLD-TOPPED CDO\r\nFEATURE WITH MINIMAL BANDING EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS\r\nTIME.  AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES BUT AN\r\nEARLIER SSM/I OVERPASS OF THE HURRICANE...FROM JUST AFTER 0000\r\nUTC...DID SHOW A SMALL EYE.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB....USING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...REMAIN AT 5.0...\r\nCORRESPONDING TO 90 KT...SO THE INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS ASYMMETRIC AND IS\r\nOCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...WHICH DIAGNOSES VERTICAL SHEAR FROM THE GFS FORECAST\r\nOUTPUT...INDICATES THAT THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER CELIA\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST PREDICTS STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE AND IS NOT\r\nTOO DIFFERENT FROM THE SHIPS/LGEM FORECAST ALTHOUGH THE LATTER\r\nMODEL DELAYS THE STRENGTHENING TO LATER IN THE PERIOD.  SINCE THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH RATHER SOON...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINTENSIFIES CELIA A LITTLE QUICKER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nSTATISTICALLY-BASED INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  BY DAYS 4-5...SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES UNDER CELIA ARE LIKELY TO COOL SIGNIFICANTLY SO THE\r\nNHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO BELOW HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/7.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nREMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND\r\nTHEREFORE CONTINUE IT MAINLY WESTWARD TREK.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE RIDGE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY THE GLOBAL\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  THEREFORE...BY DAY 4...A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS INDICATED BY THE TRACK MODELS AND ALSO BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS THAT\r\nEXCLUDES THE GFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A TRACK THAT APPEARS TO\r\nBE TOO FAR TO THE SOUTH IN COMPARISON TO THE OVERALL GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 11.8N 104.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 11.9N 105.9W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 12.1N 107.6W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 12.3N 109.6W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 12.6N 111.8W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 13.7N 116.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-06-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE CDO THAT\r\nHAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR SINCE YESTERDAY.  HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL\r\nNO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.  RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES REVEAL AN EYE THAT IS STILL A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHEAST\r\nTO SOUTHWEST.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN T5.0 AND\r\nT4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INTENSITY IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THIS\r\nMORNING...SUGGESTING THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE ABATING.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO\r\nBELOW 10 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nREASONING AND PREDICTS CELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nIN 3-4 DAYS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS THAT\r\nARE LIKELY TO INITIATE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nCELIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS MAINTAIN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A FEW\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCN\r\nCONSENSUS.  THIS IS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF...WHICH WEAKENS\r\nTHE RIDGE MORE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE\r\nSHOWS A SLOWER MOTION OF CELIA LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 11.6N 105.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 11.7N 106.7W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 11.8N 108.6W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 12.1N 110.7W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 12.5N 113.0W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 13.7N 117.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 123.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-06-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CELIA HAS TRANSITIONED FROM A CDO TO A\r\nBANDING PATTERN TODAY. OVERALL...THE SATELLITE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE DEGRADED SLIGHTLY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SOLID. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC...AS THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS\r\nSIGNS AS TO WHY THE CYCLONE SHOULD NOT EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN.\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE OVERLY INHIBITING AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THE\r\nLOWER INITIAL INTENSITY..THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BELOW THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE FIRST DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER... IT CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW CELIA NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE DAYS...WHICH\r\nIS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nCELIA REMAINS ON A WESTWARD HEADING OR 275/8 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE...BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCN CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NOT AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH CONTINUES TO\r\nINSIST ON A WEAKER RIDGE THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IN A\r\nFEW DAYS. THIS RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF THE\r\nHURRICANE IN THAT MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 11.8N 106.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 11.9N 107.7W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 12.1N 109.8W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 12.4N 112.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N 114.3W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 14.4N 118.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 122.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-06-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE RAIN BANDS\r\nHAVE WARMED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE\r\nVISIBLE EARLIER TODAY HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CANOPY. \r\nTHE UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES THAT 10-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR HAS REDEVELOPED AND IS INHIBITING THE VENTILATION OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBSEQUENT DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AN EARLIER CIMSS SATCON\r\nESTIMATE SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nA FAVORABLE UPPER WIND PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND REFLECTED IN THE MODELS IS NOT AS ROBUST AS\r\nWAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nA LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT STILL INDICATING\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM AND THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nCELIA IS ON A WESTWARD HEADING AT 275/9 KT...WITHIN THE DEEP\r\nEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE BEYOND THE 48 HOUR\r\nPERIOD...WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 11.9N 107.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N 108.8W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 12.3N 111.0W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 12.7N 113.4W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 13.3N 115.6W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 125.6W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-06-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS\r\nCONTINUES TO DEPICT A TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nDISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THE MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME OPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT. \r\n\r\nAS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES SHOULD RELAX DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN TURN...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nSHEAR SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN\r\nVERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...AS\r\nCELIA REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...I\r\nWILL ONCE AGAIN FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE GFDL MODEL...BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS.\r\n\r\nCELIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH A STRONG MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO...AND CELIA\r\nSHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THAT OCCURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH\r\nWEAKENS THE RIDGE MORE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THAT RESULTS\r\nIN MORE DECELERATION OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE THAN\r\nPREDICTED BY THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST \r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT \r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nA LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 GIVING SOME\r\nCREDENCE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 11.9N 108.0W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 12.0N 109.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 12.3N 112.2W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N 114.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 13.6N 116.8W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 120.8W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 15.8N 124.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-06-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n \r\nWHILE MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAD DEPICTED THE\r\nEYE OF CELIA...IT IS NOW FINALLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE EYE WAS FIRST SEEN ON SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES AROUND\r\n0700 UTC...THOUGH IT WAS QUITE RAGGED...AND SINCE THEN HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO\r\nT5.0/90 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED\r\nON THESE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n85 KT. IN ADDITION...RECENT SSMI AND SSMIS IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nEYE OF CELIA IS MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nCELIA HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO 5 KT\r\nOR LESS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT WAY THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. WHILE ALL OF THE INTENSITY SHOWS SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...NONE OF THE MODELS\r\nMAKE CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER 48 HOURS...CELIA WILL TRACK\r\nOVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THAT SHOULD\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD\r\nAND IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LGEM MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE WEAKENING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nCELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING\r\nLARGE-SCALE TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 12.2N 109.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.5N 111.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.9N 113.4W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 115.7W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 15.5N 122.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 124.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-06-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE EYE NOW MORE SYMMETRIC AND WARMER THAN EARLIER AND THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IMPROVED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO 5.5/102 KT AND THE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 100 KT...A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF CELIA IS STILL POSSIBLE WHILE IT IS\r\nOVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINING IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THIS TIME.  BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONCE\r\nAGAIN NUDGED UPWARD...DUE TO THE INITIAL HIGHER INTENSITY...AND\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED AND\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE\r\nEROSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF CELIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LARGE-SCALE\r\nTROUGH OFFSHORE THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST.  THIS PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE CELIA TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS AND SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 12.3N 110.4W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.6N 112.3W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 13.1N 114.6W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.8N 117.0W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 14.5N 119.2W   100 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 15.5N 123.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 125.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-06-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n \r\n \r\nTHE DEVELOPMENTAL TREND THAT CELIA WAS EXPERIENCING EARLIER HAS BEEN\r\nDISRUPTED. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. AN 2129 UTC AMSU-B\r\nOVERPASS DEPICTED A CLOSED EYE BUT THE INNER CORE ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS DETERIORATED FURTHER SINCE THEN. IN ADDITION...A\r\nWELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS SHRUNK\r\nCONSIDERABLY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 4.5 AND\r\n5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED UPON THE THESE AND THE\r\nDEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF CELIA IS\r\nLOWERED TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES...THOUGH SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...YIELD THE SAME\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...280/11. LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS SHOW CELIA MAINTAINING A WESTERLY MOTION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING\r\nINTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE\r\nENOUGH TO IMPART CELIA WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH AT\r\nLEAST 72 HOURS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS..MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...TAKING IT BACK ON A WESTERLY COURSE AT A SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE RECENT INTENSITY TRENDS ARE PUZZLING...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT\r\nHAS LED TO THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STATE. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT CELIA REMAINS IN A VERY LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER\r\nHIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD FAVOR MAINTENANCE OF ITS\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OR PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM. CELIA SHOULD REACH PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND WHICH SHOULD BECOME FASTER TOWARD\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH NO LONGER STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AS MUCH.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 12.4N 111.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.8N 113.4W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N 115.8W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 14.1N 118.1W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 14.8N 120.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 123.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 125.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 126.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-06-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH YET ANOTHER RE-STRENGTHENING PHASE\r\nBASED ON A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. DEEP CONVECTION\r\n...WITH SOME TOPS AS COLD AS -86C...HAS DEVELOPED IN THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nCONVECTION-VOID WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB AND T5.0/90 KT FROM SAB USING THE\r\nEMBEDDED CENTER TECHNIQUE. SINCE THE 06Z FIXES...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nHAS ALSO BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. HOWEVER...I WOULD PREFER TO SEE\r\nAN EYE APPEAR IN INFRARED IMAGERY BEFORE BRINGING CELIA BACK UP TO\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE TWO DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...CELIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD A\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT\r\nWEAKENS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE CELIA ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nA 24/0215Z SSMI-S WATER VAPOR IMAGE INDICATED A NARROW BAND OF DRY\r\nAIR HAD BEEN DRAWN INTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH LIKELY LED\r\nTO THE EARLIER EROSION OF CONVECTION IN THAT PART OF THE STORM.\r\nHOWEVER...BASED ON THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE DRY AIR HAS BEEN MIXED OUT.\r\nCELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS AND IN A LOW\r\nWIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE PROXIMITY TO DRY AIR\r\nJUST TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE...HOWEVER...COULD RESULT IN\r\nADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THAT PERIOD WHICH CAN\r\nNOT BE SPECIFICALLY FORECAST. BY 48 HOURS...CELIA WILL BEGIN TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATER AROUND 25C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SLOW BUT\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 24 HOURS...\r\nAND AFTERWARD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 12.6N 112.8W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 13.0N 114.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 13.7N 117.0W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 14.4N 119.1W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 15.1N 120.9W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 16.2N 123.9W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-06-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF CELIA HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nBEGINNING AROUND 1200 UTC. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SYMMETRIC OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80 C IN THE EYEWALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 5.5/102 KT. BASED ON THE SAB CLASSIFICATION\r\nAND THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nSINCE 1200 UTC...CELIA IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 100 KT...AND THIS COULD\r\nBE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING OF\r\nCELIA...AND THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE VERY\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS THAT\r\nCELIA IS OVER AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD\r\nBE IN THE SHORT TERM AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO NEAR\r\n26-27 C ALONG THE FOR CAST TRACK IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nSTEADILY COOL BEYOND THAT. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE ALONG THE\r\nEXPECTED TRACK. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED\r\nUPWARD AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11...AND THE EYE OF CELIA LIES A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL...THERE\r\nREMAINS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FORECAST REASONING.\r\nCELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nAS A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES WEST COAST ERODES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN...\r\nCOMBINED WITH CELIA BECOMING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY THEN...SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION...AND IS OTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 12.5N 113.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 12.9N 115.7W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.6N 117.9W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.4N 119.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.2N 121.4W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 124.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 125.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-06-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN NOW SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE WARMER AND MORE CIRCULAR THAN IT\r\nWAS EARLIER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 6.0/115 KT AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE ALSO NEAR 6.0.\r\nBASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 115 KT...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT PREDICTED THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nOF CELIA WELL...CONTINUE TO SHOW VIRTUALLY NO ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE HURRICANE IS IN A LOW VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nALLOWS FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...CELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER STEADILY COOLER WATERS\r\nAND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THIS LESS FAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM AND THEN LIES CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND\r\n36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10...AND THE EYE OF CELIA LIES\r\nALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST ERODES\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE.  BEYOND A FEW\r\nDAYS...CELIA IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAK. THE NEW\r\nNHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nBUT SHOWS A SLOWER MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON AN\r\nASCAT PASS AT 1658 UTC. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 12.8N 114.7W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.4N 116.4W   120 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 14.1N 118.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 15.0N 120.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 121.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 16.5N 124.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-06-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SYMMETRIC\r\nHURRICANE WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN...WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE...AND STRONG CONVECTION IN THE THE EYEWALL. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T7.0...140 KT.  THESE\r\nDATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KT...MAKING CELIA A\r\nCATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE.  CELIA WILL SOON PASS OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING COMMENCING BEFORE THIS TIME TOMORROW.  LATER ON... GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE NEAR THE HURRICANE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD AID THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.    \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND IS NOW\r\nMOVING 285/11. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER THE HURRICANE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF CELIA\r\nDURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT\r\nHAPPENS TO THE HURRICANE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE AS THE RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE AT\r\nTHAT TIME... LEADING TO A LOWER-CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE BEST BET\r\nAT THIS POINT IS THAT THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL RESULT IN STEERING\r\nCURRENTS GETTING QUITE WEAK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5... AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT OF CELIA AT THAT TIME FRAME.  \r\n\r\nCELIA IS TIED FOR THE STRONGEST EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE ON RECORD\r\nIN JUNE...WITH AVA OF 1973.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 13.1N 115.9W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.6N 117.5W   140 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 14.4N 119.5W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 15.3N 121.1W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.8N 122.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 124.3W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-06-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n\r\nCELIA IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE HURRICANE THIS MORNING...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 15-20 N MI WIDE EYE EMBEDDED IN A CLOSED EYEWALL WITH\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB REMAIN 140 KT.  THAT WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN\r\nALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE SOUTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CELIA CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nAFTER THAT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE U. S. WEST COAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW ITS\r\nFORWARD MOTION...WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING LITTLE AT DAYS 4-5.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE\r\nTRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA...TVCN...AND TVCC CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nIT IS LIKELY THAT CELIA HAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THUS...A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY AS SHOWN IN ALL OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  CELIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS\r\nIN 24-36 HR...BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-60 HR...AND DECAY TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 13.4N 117.0W   140 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 14.1N 118.6W   130 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 121.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 16.1N 123.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 16.5N 124.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 126.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-06-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 0907 UTC AMSR-E AQUA-1\r\nOVERPASS SHOW THAT CELIA HAS A WELL DEFINED 20 N MI EYE SURROUNDED\r\nBY A VERY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND IS SHOWING SOME\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR HURRICANE.  THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE\r\nEYEWALL HAVE WARMED SOME THIS MORNING...AND IT APPEARS THAT CELIA\r\nHAS COMMENCED ITS EXPECTED WEAKENING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 130 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB OF 130 KT AND AN 0900 UTC\r\nCIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 135 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM\r\nTRAVERSES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. \r\nSUBSEQUENTLY...CELIA IS FORECAST TO BE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\n48 HOURS...AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/11.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC OCEAN SHOULD REMAIN INTACT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nAFTERWARD...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THIS\r\nCHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE CELIA TO SLOW AND\r\nEVENTUALLY MOVE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE CYCLONE\r\nDECAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 13.8N 118.1W   130 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W   115 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 15.3N 121.2W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N 123.7W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 127.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":27,"Date":"2010-06-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS WEAKENED THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION...AND THE EYE DIAMETER HAS INCREASED TO 25 N MI.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 115 KT...AND IS\r\nBASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE\r\nOF 115 KT.  CELIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A WEAKENING TREND AND\r\nDECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATER AND INTO A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS REFLECT THIS SCENARIO AND SERVE AS\r\nA BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/10...WITHIN THE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. LARGE-SCALE AND REGIONAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nRIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...\r\nALLOWING CELIA TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.\r\nFOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nRIDGE WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INDUCE A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SYSTEM SPINS\r\nDOWN TO A REMNANT LOW. THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 14.2N 119.0W   115 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 120.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 15.6N 122.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 123.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 16.2N 124.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 16.4N 125.3W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":28,"Date":"2010-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AROUND\r\nA COOLING AND SHRINKING EYE.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS CONTINUE TO\r\nSLOWLY DECREASE...AND WERE 5.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.\r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 105 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. CELIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM...AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN ABOUT 4 DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS\r\n...THE FORWARD SPEED OF CELIA WILL DECREASE TO ABOUT 2 KT LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 14.8N 119.7W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 15.4N 121.0W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 16.2N 123.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 16.4N 124.4W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 16.5N 125.3W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":29,"Date":"2010-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS MOVED OVER SSTS OF ABOUT 25C...AND ITS SATELLITE\r\nREPRESENTATION HAS DEGRADED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\nTEMPERATURES WITHIN THE EYE HAVE COOLED FROM ABOUT -16C TO\r\n-34C...AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS SHRUNK.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 KT AND 77 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.4/4.9...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE FT AND CI NUMBERS.  QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS\r\nCELIA STAYS OVER COOL WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM...AND NOW WEAKENS THE CYCLONE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS COMPLETELY\r\nDISSIPATE THE REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS A POSITION AT THAT TIME UNTIL MORE OF THE MODELS CONVERGE\r\nON THIS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9. CELIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nDECELERATE OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nBY DAY 3...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WEAKENS AND IS\r\nREPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL THEN BE\r\nDRIVEN SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE\r\nTVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 15.3N 120.7W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.7N 121.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.0N 123.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 16.2N 124.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 16.3N 124.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 16.4N 125.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":30,"Date":"2010-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA CONTINUES TO DECAY THIS MORNING...WITH A SHRINKING BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...INDICATIVE OF AN\r\n0949 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB..AND AN 0900 UTC CIMSS\r\nSATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 83 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 80 KT CONSIDERING THAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE\r\nCONSTRAINED AND THE SATCON ESTIMATE OF 83 KT WAS A FEW HOURS\r\nEARLIER.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE...REDUCING CELIA TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS OR POSSIBLY LESS.  AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES\r\nCOOL WATER AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. \r\nTHERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INTENSITY\r\nPHILOSOPHY...AND MATCHES A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE\r\nLGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/8. CELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOW IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE 3 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...THE REMNANT LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO DRIFT IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AS THE WESTERN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nBREAKS DOWN IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS BASED ON\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 15.6N 121.5W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 15.9N 122.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 16.1N 123.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 16.2N 124.4W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 16.2N 124.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 16.2N 125.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 16.2N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 16.2N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":31,"Date":"2010-06-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nCORRECTED FOR POST-TROPICAL STATUS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS \r\n\r\nWHAT LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON...IS\r\nCONFINED TO THE WEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 70 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB..AND\r\nA 1730 UTC ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE WAS 67\r\nKT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT.\r\nCONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS....AND WITH DISSIPATION IN 4\r\nDAYS...OR POSSIBLY SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7. CELIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITHIN THE\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD...CELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.  THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MULTI-MODEL BLEND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 15.7N 122.2W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 15.9N 123.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 124.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 125.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":32,"Date":"2010-06-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY...WITH THE REMAINING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 55 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF 53 KT AND A DATA-T NUMBER 3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB.  ADDITIONAL RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS CELIA TRAVERSES WATERS OF AROUND 25C...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE\r\nIN 3 OR 4 DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6. CELIA IS BEING STEERED BY A \r\nRIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE FORWARD MOTION OF CELIA WILL SLOW TO\r\nA CRAWL...AROUND 2 OR 3 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 15.8N 122.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.0N 124.2W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 124.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 125.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 126.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":33,"Date":"2010-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME RATHER LIMITED THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW\r\nCELLS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF CELIA. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 45 KT...AND IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND A CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 43 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED...AND CELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS\r\nTHAN 2 DAYS AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE AROUND DAY 3.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5....AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS TO A REMNANT LOW.\r\nSOME REDUCTION IS FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH ERODES IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS COMPRISED OF A BLEND OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 15.9N 123.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 16.0N 124.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 124.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.0N 125.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 125.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 16.0N 127.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":34,"Date":"2010-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n\r\nCELIA HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK THIS MORNING WITH A NEW BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 45 KT. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS OVER SUB 25C\r\nWATERS AND EMBEDDED IN A STABLE AIRMASS...A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS\r\nLIKELY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND AGREES WITH THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/3...THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN WITH FEW MICROWAVE IMAGES OVERNIGHT.  CELIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME STATIONARY BY THIS EVENING AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA\r\nOF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF\r\nMODEL SPREAD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOME MODELS...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF/GFDL...NOW MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST AS\r\nCELIA FEELS THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER MEXICO.  \r\nWHILE THE EASTWARD TRACK DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...THE\r\nNHC FORECAST WILL NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nINSTEAD OF MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE IT\r\nDISSIPATES.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 15.9N 123.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.9N 124.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 15.9N 124.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 15.9N 124.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 15.8N 124.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":35,"Date":"2010-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A FEW COLD TOPS REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  SINCE CELIA WILL REMAIN OVER\r\nWATERS AROUND 25C AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DRY...STABLE AIRMASS...A\r\nGRADUAL SPINDOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...WITH DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/04...A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST.  CELIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND BECOME NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY BY MONDAY AS IT GETS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING\r\nCURRENTS.  THE NHC FORECAST TAKES CELIA SLOWLY WESTWARD PRIOR TO\r\nDISSIPATION...AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 15.7N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 15.6N 124.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 15.6N 124.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 15.6N 124.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":36,"Date":"2010-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE...SUGGESTING THAT CELIA IS MAINTAINING ITS\r\nINTENSITY...FOR NOW.  A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND\r\nFINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS 35 KT FOR THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES AN INCREASING\r\nMAGNITUDE OF SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS...COUPLED\r\nWITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR\r\nMASS...SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.  CELIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED FURTHER AND IS NOW ABOUT 250/2. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS FOR CELIA ARE EXTREMELY WEAK...AND NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR THIS SITUATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BLOCK MUCH MORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...AND\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO\r\nSHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH...BUT BECAUSE THE PREDICTED SPEED OF\r\nMOTION IS SO SLOW...THIS AMOUNTS TO A NEGLIGIBLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 15.6N 124.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.5N 124.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 15.4N 124.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 15.3N 124.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 15.2N 124.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":37,"Date":"2010-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nRECENT TRMM AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CELIA WAS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE SMALL PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS WRAPPED SOUTHWARD AND THE CURRENT\r\nCENTER IS ANALYZED TO BE EAST OF THIS CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. TAFB\r\nAND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINED\r\nNEAR THE BORDER OF TROPICAL STORM AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY\r\nAS DID TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nCELIA IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\nESTIMATE OF 220/2.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND LIKELY TO REMAIN\r\nSO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS NOT PICKED UP WELL ON THE\r\nSHORT-TERM MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE RATHER MEAGER DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY REFLECTS THE RATHER COOL\r\nSSTS...STABLE AIR...AND MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR THAT ARE\r\nIMPACTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE COMBINED EFFECT OF THESE\r\nINHIBITING FACTORS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM AND DEEP CONVECTION COULD CEASE LATER TODAY AFTER THE\r\nDIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAX...SUCH AS IT IS...COMES TO AN END. AVAILABLE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN CALLING FOR DEMISE OF CELIA\r\nWITHIN ABOUT TWO DAYS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 15.3N 124.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 15.1N 124.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.0N 123.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.0N 123.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":38,"Date":"2010-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK...AND VERY\r\nLITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER CELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH\r\n...BUT THE INTENSITY IS HELD CONSERVATIVELY AT 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS EXPECTED...AND CELIA SHOULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 15.2N 124.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.3N 124.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.3N 124.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 15.3N 124.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.3N 124.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":39,"Date":"2010-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nALL CONVECTION WITH CELIA HAS VANISHED AND ONLY THE SKELETAL REMAINS\r\nOF THE SYSTEM ARE LEFT BEHIND.  CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN GONE QUITE\r\nLONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW...BUT THIS\r\nIS PROBABLY THE PENULTIMATE ADVISORY ON CELIA.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...AND A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER COOL WATERS.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS DRIFTING EASTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BLENDED WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 15.1N 123.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 15.1N 123.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 15.1N 123.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 15.1N 123.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Celia","Adv":40,"Date":"2010-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP042010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS\r\nNOW...THE COOL WATERS HAVING REDUCED IT TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.\r\nEVEN THOUGH CELIA IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW...SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE\r\nMOVING OVER COOL WATERS.\r\n \r\nCELIA HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n080/2...THOUGH RECENT SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST A MORE EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE REMNANT LOW OF CELIA IS BEING STEERED BY\r\nANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC WEST OF ABOUT 125 WEST LONGITUDE.  EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS\r\nFLOW...THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nCOURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON CELIA.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH  SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 15.2N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 15.3N 123.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 15.4N 123.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-06-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN NOW CONSISTS OF A\r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SHEAR. IN\r\nFACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS A LOW-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT IN THE AREA SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR A MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF\r\nA WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WELL OFFSHORE\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.     \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 11.0N  93.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 11.5N  94.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 12.0N  96.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 12.8N  97.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 13.5N  99.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 15.0N 102.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-06-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED.  ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DUE TO SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5\r\nFROM TAFB AND 2.0 FROM SAB.  ASCAT DATA...WHICH IS KNOWN TO HAVE A\r\nLOW BIAS...SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAT 0306 UTC.  SINCE THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS AND STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM DARBY.\r\n\r\nTHE ASCAT PASS HELPED IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND IT IS\r\nESTIMATED THAT DARBY IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND MEXICO SHOULD\r\nSTEER DARBY GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS.  THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE\r\nRIDGE BREAKS DOWN.  IN FACT...SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nDARBY COULD STOP ALTOGETHER AND ATTAIN SOME EASTWARD MOTION WITHIN\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THAT TIME.  THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS ARE COUNTER TO THAT OF THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH MAINTAIN\r\nA SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS\r\nUNCERTAINTY SUPPORTS THE NEGLIGIBLE MOTION SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR OVER DARBY SHOULD\r\nABATE OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...GIVING THE SYSTEM A CHANCE TO\r\nINTENSIFY.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT THIS STILL MIGHT BE\r\nON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE SHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES A 1 IN\r\n4 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WHATEVER\r\nTHE MAXIMUM INTENSITY...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER DAY 3 IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INDUCE WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY IF DARBY BEGINS TO ATTAIN\r\nAN EASTERLY MOTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 11.5N  94.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 11.9N  95.1W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 12.4N  96.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 12.8N  98.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 13.0N  99.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 101.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 101.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 101.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-06-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF DARBY HAS INCREASED SHARPLY DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS AS STRONGLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nDEVELOPED. IN FACT...RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HINT THAT A\r\nBANDING EYE FEATURE COULD BE FORMING...BUT THIS MAY JUST BE A SMALL\r\nDRY SLOT THAT HAS DEVELOPED. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND T2.5 FROM SAB. GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE SINCE\r\nTHE 12Z FIXES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THE FORECAST TRACK OF DARBY\r\nHINGES HEAVILY UPON WHAT HAPPENS TO THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...PLUS ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...DEVELOP THE CARIBBEAN\r\nDISTURBANCE TO VARIOUS DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WHICH CAUSES\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY TO WEAKEN BY DAYS 3-4.\r\nTHIS RESULTS IN A WEAKENING OF THE STEERING FLOW...AND SOME OF THE\r\nMODELS EVEN FORECAST SOME WEAK BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nDEVELOPING CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE AFTER THAT SYSTEM ENTERS THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF MEXICO. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW ANY INTERACTION WITH\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE BECAUSE IT NEITHER DEVELOPS DARBY OR THE\r\nOTHER SYSTEM. DUE TO THE POOR 06Z INITIALIZATION AND SHORT TERM\r\nFORECAST TRENDS BY THE GFS MODEL...LESS WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON\r\nTHAT MODEL AND IT IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMAINTAINS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF SLOWING DOWN DARBY IN THE\r\n72-120 HOUR TIME FRAME DUE TO EXPECTED INTERACTION WITH THE LARGE\r\nCARIBBEAN SYSTEM...REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THAT SYSTEM GOES ON\r\nTO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND WOULD SUGGEST THAT DARBY MAY\r\nBE IN THE EARLY STAGES OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...DESPITE\r\nTHE IMPROVED BANDING FEATURES...CLOUD TOPS IN THE INNER CORE REGION\r\nHAVE WARMED SUGGESTING THAT DRY AIR MAY BE ACTING TO ERODE THE\r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVER THE\r\nCOURSE OF THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD STRONGLY FAVOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CASE THE EROSION OF THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES...AND ALSO TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING A\r\nGREATER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nOCCURRING...AND THIS SCENARIO WILL BE CLOSELY ASSESSED FOR THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 11.8N  94.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 12.2N  95.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 12.6N  97.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 12.9N  98.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 13.2N  99.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 13.7N 101.1W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 14.2N 101.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 14.7N 101.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-06-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AND A BANDING\r\nEYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BEEN IMPROVING...ESPECIALLY\r\nIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO \r\n55 KT BASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. THE FUTURE TRACK OF DARBY CONTINUES TO\r\nWEIGH HEAVILY UPON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER\r\nTHE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...\r\nESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THE CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nDISTURBANCE TO VARIOUS DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AND MOVE THAT\r\nSYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS RESULTS IN WEAKENING\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY BY 96-120 HOURS AND\r\nCAUSES A DECREASE IN THE STEERING FLOW. BOTH THE GFS AND\r\nGFS-PARALLEL RUNS TAKE A RATHER ANEMIC LOOKING DARBY QUICKLY\r\nWESTWARD...WHICH ONCE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO POOR MODEL\r\nINITIALIZATION. AS A RESULT...LESS WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE\r\nMODELS...WITH MORE WEIGHT BEING PLACED ON THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...\r\nUKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS.\r\n \r\nDARBY APPEARS TO ALREADY BE ABOUT 12 HOURS INTO A RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION PHASE. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO WITH SLOWER DEVELOPMENT AFTER THAT. A\r\n23/1606Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE EARLIER OBSERVED SLIGHT\r\nWESTWARD TILT OF THE INNER CORE VORTEX COLUMN HAD DIMINISHED...\r\nWHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT DARBY HAS BETTER VERTICAL STRUCTURE THAT\r\nIS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nLESS THAN 5 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH WOULD\r\nALSO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT DARBY COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THAT TIME. BY 96 HOURS...\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...BUT MUCH LESS NOW THAN\r\nPREVIOUS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 12.0N  96.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 12.3N  97.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 12.7N  98.8W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 13.0N 100.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 14.0N 102.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 14.5N 102.1W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 15.0N 102.1W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-06-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 23 2010\r\n\r\nTHE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT DARBY WAS UNDERGOING EARLIER SEEMS TO\r\nHAVE SLOWED OR STOPPED...AS THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT HINT OF AN EYE\r\nIN VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY AND MUCH OF THE OUTER BANDING\r\nASSOCIATED WITH DARBY HAS DISSIPATED.  WHY THIS IS OCCURRING IS NOT\r\nOBVIOUS...AS THERE ARE NO ANALYSES THAT SHOW SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT EASTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE UNDERCUTTING THE WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC\r\nOUTFLOW.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55\r\nKT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10.  DARBY IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE\r\nTO WEAKEN AS A DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nMOVES TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS\r\nSHOULD LEAVE DARBY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BY 72-96\r\nHR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRYING TO MOVE THE CYCLONE EASTWARD\r\nAND THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TRYING TO MOVE IT WESTWARD.  THERE IS A\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER 72 HR...WHICH IS ANOTHER\r\nSIGN THAT THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND DECELERATION FOR 48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY\r\nA NORTHWARD TURN AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS DARBY\r\nTO STRENGTHEN FURTHER...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR AND THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWING A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING\r\nEASTERLY WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO ARREST DEVELOPMENT AND BEGIN A\r\nWEAKENING TREND.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT AT SOMEWHAT LOWER INTENSITIES BASED ON\r\nCURRENT TRENDS AND THE FORECAST SHEAR.  THE NEW FORECAST IS\r\nSTRONGER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HR.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW DARBY\r\nSHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING\r\nEASTWARD AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING WESTWARD.  SHOULD THIS\r\nHAPPEN THE CYCLONE WOULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 12.3N  97.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 12.7N  98.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 13.1N  99.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 13.4N 100.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 13.6N 101.7W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 14.0N 102.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 14.5N 102.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 15.0N 102.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-06-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n \r\nACCORDING TO A 0156 UTC TRMM PASS...A PINHOLE EYE FEATURE APPEARED\r\nTO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nOVER DARBY.  THIS TINY FEATURE HAS NOT BEEN EVIDENT IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT T3.5...55 KT.  HOWEVER...THE SAB CLASSIFICATION DID YIELD\r\nA DATA T-NUMBER OF 4.5...77 KT...USING THE EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN. \r\nIT IS NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES TO BE\r\nSTRONGER THAN THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE WILL ALLOW...AND IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTHAT DARBY MAY HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE.  MORE RECENTLY...THE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED...BUT A CURVED\r\nBAND HAS DEVELOPED AND IS NOW CONNECTED TO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10 AS DARBY IS STEERED TO THE WEST BY\r\nA LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF A\r\nDISTURBANCE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA.  AS A RESULT...DARBY IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND MAY ATTAIN SOME EASTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5\r\nWITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BUT\r\nTHEN DIVERGES...AND HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST\r\nCOMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS JOG TO THE WEST AND INDICATES A SLOW TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nBY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE BOTH COMPLICATED BY THE FACT\r\nTHAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE DARBY BY DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE\r\nTO A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS.  THE\r\nHURRICANE MODELS DO HOLD ON TO THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...BUT BOTH WEAKEN DARBY TO ABOUT 20-30 KT IN 120 HOURS.  THE\r\nSTATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE THE ONLY ONES TO KEEP DARBY\r\nAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.  REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nMODEL...ALL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT DAYS 4 AND 5 COMPARED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES MORE\r\nRAPID WEAKENING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ENDING CLOSE TO\r\nTHE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 12.6N  98.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N  99.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 13.2N 100.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.7W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 14.0N 103.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 15.0N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-06-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n\r\nDARBY HAS A SMALL BUT SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65\r\nKT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...AND DARBY IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.  SINCE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ROUGHLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  BY AROUND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS INDICATE\r\nINCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER DARBY WHICH WOULD\r\nINDUCE WEAKENING...AS SHOWN BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER\r\nSINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES THAT ARE QUITE WARM THROUGH 5 DAYS...DARBY MIGHT NOT\r\nWEAKEN AS MUCH AS SHOWN BY 4 AND 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 285/8.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SO A CONTINUED DECELERATION IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERSE SUGGESTING THAT THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WILL BECOME VERY WEAK.  BY DAYS 4-5...THERE IS STILL THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN DARBY AND THE SYSTEM\r\nCURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THIS WOULD BE MORE\r\nLIKELY IF THE LATTER SYSTEM TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND\r\nSTRENGTHENS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY AROUND 96 HOURS AS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE FORECAST FROM THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL.  FOR THE TIME BEING THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...ONLY SHOWS A\r\nNORTH TO NORTHEAST DRIFT OVER THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 12.8N  98.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 13.0N  99.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.3N 101.1W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 13.5N 102.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 13.7N 102.9W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 14.0N 103.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-06-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n \r\nDARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN\r\nEYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED\r\nON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...STRONG\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER\r\nCLOSELY.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7.  SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A\r\nFEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nDECELERATE.   ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nSIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 12.9N  99.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-06-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010\r\n \r\nDARBY IS A SMALL HURRICANE WITH A TINY EYE WHICH HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO APPEAR INTERMITTENTLY ON IR IMAGES. T-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 AND 5.0\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY AND BASED ON THESE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KNOTS.  DARBY COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE SHEAR HITS THE CYCLONE IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. SINCE THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE\r\nGRADUAL.\r\n\r\nDARBY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN TRACK AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY\r\nCONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND DARBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW\r\nDOWN CONSIDERABLY OR MEANDER THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 13.2N 100.0W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.5N 101.0W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 13.7N 102.0W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N 103.0W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 13.9N 103.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 14.0N 103.8W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N 103.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N 103.3W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-06-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nDARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL 10-N MI EYE FOR ABOUT THE PAST FIVE\r\nHOURS BUT HAS DISPLAYED AN OBLONG CONVECTIVE PATTERN WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH T5.0...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nINDICATE THAT DARBY HAS MOVED INTO A FAVORABLE NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR\r\nOF HIGHER SSTS AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER THOSE WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW\r\nDURING THAT PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS\r\nDARBY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...WHICH IS ABOVE ALL\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE EXPECT FOR SHIFOR.  THE SHIPS RI INDEX DOES\r\nINDICATE A 1 IN 4 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...SO IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR DARBY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOWER SSTS...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO SHIPS AND LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE AREA\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  NEARLY ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM BY THE TIME IT\r\nGETS TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...AND THESE MODELS\r\nSTALL DARBY BY DAY 2 FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...MOST NOTABLY INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL PATTERN...BUT DOES NOT\r\nINDICATE A POSITION AS FAR TO THE EAST ON DAY 5 AS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCN...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nOUTLIERS.  ON ANOTHER NOTE...THE GFS SHOWS ALMOST NO DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nTHE CARIBBEAN LOW AND THEREFORE KEEPS DARBY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE RATHER HELTER-SKELTER GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ESSENTIALLY...THE\r\nSTRONGER THE CARIBBEAN LOW GETS WHILE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE\r\nFARTHER TO THE EAST DARBY COULD BE LOCATED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 13.4N 100.7W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 13.5N 101.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 13.6N 102.6W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 13.4N 103.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.7W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 13.6N 103.7W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 14.0N 103.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N 102.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-06-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nDARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA REVEAL AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nTO 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE\r\nIN A DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED.\r\n\r\nDARBY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES\r\nAT 6 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER\r\nAS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF DARBY...BUT MOST OF THEM WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 13.9N 102.0W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 13.9N 103.2W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 13.5N 104.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 13.8N 104.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-06-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nDARBY REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWING A DISTINCT EYE AND AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN. DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC WERE\r\nT5.5...102 KT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH DEEPER CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THUS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nBY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD\r\nLIMIT FUTURE STRENGTHENING.  THIS SHEAR WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AND CAUSE DARBY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.  MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nAND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/5.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DARBY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS HAVE WILDLY DIVERGENT\r\nSOLUTIONS...WITH THE HWRF CONTINUING A WESTWARD MOTION OF DARBY AND\r\nTHE ECMWF/UKMET SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION.  MOST OF THIS\r\nDISAGREEMENT IS CAUSED BY THE HANDLING OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND WHETHER THE MUCH-SMALLER DARBY GETS\r\nCAUGHT UP IN WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO.  IT IS BEST TO STAY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR NOW...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDARBY IS THE EARLIEST SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE FORMATION IN THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1971...ECLIPSING OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS RECORD OF HURRICANE DANIEL ON JUNE 30 1978.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 13.6N 101.5W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 13.7N 102.3W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 13.5N 103.3W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 104.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 14.0N 103.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 14.3N 102.7W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 14.6N 102.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH DARBY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS COOLED\r\nAS THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED.  IN ADDITION...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC...WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATING A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED APPEARANCE TO THE CONVECTIVE TOPS. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 5.0/90KT AND\r\n5.5/102 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES PEAKING EARLIER AROUND 5.5 HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE.  ON\r\nTHE BASIS OF RECENT TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 100 KT.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN EASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR OVER DARBY WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH THE SHEAR\r\nPOSSIBLY BECOMING RATHER STRONG AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\nHOWEVER...DARBY COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST IF PERSISTENTLY\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR DEVELOPS AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES ARE A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS ONES AND YIELD AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/5. HOWEVER...RECENT SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE FORECAST TURN TOWARD THE WEST MAY\r\nALREADY BE OCCURRING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DARBY ON THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING EXTENDING FROM\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH SOUTHERN MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THIS RIDGING WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nLEAVING DARBY IN A REGION OF WEAK ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING. \r\nTHEREAFTER...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY...WITH ONE CAMP\r\nOF MODELS NEARLY STALLING DARBY BEFORE MOVING IT ON A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nTO NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  THE OTHER SET OF SOLUTIONS SHOWS THE\r\nSMALL CYCLONE BEING DRAWN EASTWARD BY THE LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE  ENTERING THE SOUTHERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN\r\nTHE DISAGREEMENT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOW BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 13.8N 102.2W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 13.8N 103.0W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 13.6N 103.7W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 13.6N 104.2W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 13.9N 104.3W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 103.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 14.8N 102.6W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 15.0N 102.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nDARBY IS AN INCREDIBLY SMALL HURRICANE.  AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0345\r\nUTC INDICATED THAT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND ANY\r\nFARTHER THAN ABOUT 35 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE HURRICANE HAD BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING A SMALL 10-N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH SUPPORTED 0600 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T5.5 FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME\r\nOBSCURED...AND THE MOST RECENT ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS T5.1.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 95 KT.  VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER DARBY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE RAPID FROM 72-120 HOURS AS A\r\nSTRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER MEXICO...CREATING FAIRLY STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS NEAR THE CYCLONE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDARBY HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/5.  THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nAROUND THE HURRICANE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AND DARBY SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF NEWLY-NAMED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ALEX IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5...BUT IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS STILL RATHER\r\nDIVERGENT AND DARBY COULD DRIFT OR MEANDER IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND BRINGS\r\nDARBY TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 3 DAYS...BUT THIS SOLUTION IS\r\nDISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 13.5N 102.7W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 13.4N 103.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 104.1W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 13.6N 104.4W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 13.9N 104.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 14.3N 103.3W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 14.7N 102.8W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 15.0N 102.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nCOMPACT DARBY HAD CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THE PINHOLE\r\nEYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AN 0811\r\nUTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS STILL QUITE\r\nINTACT NEAR THE SURFACE.  ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG BANDING FEATURE\r\nWAS EVIDENT OVER THE WEST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nESTIMATE SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ESTIMATE AT 95 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER\r\nDARBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND THE LGEM...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 260/3...WITHIN THE EASTERLY MID\r\nTO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW OF A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF DARBY.  DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nRIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING THE CYCLONE\r\nTO DRIFT OR BECOME STATIONARY.  BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD...AN\r\nINCREASING WEAKNESS...POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL STORM\r\nALEX...SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THIS EVENTUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COULD COME MUCH LATER THAN\r\nSUGGESTED...INDICATIVE OF A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS DURING THIS\r\nPARTICULAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE WEST\r\nOF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 13.4N 102.9W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 13.3N 103.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 13.3N 104.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 103.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 14.7N 102.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 102.3W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-06-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n\r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF DARBY BECAME\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST....\r\nAPPARENTLY DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THAT TIME...A\r\nNEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT\r\nTHIS NEW CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD BE TEMPORARY. DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 85 KT FROM TAFB AND 95 KT FROM\r\nSAB...BUT THEY ARE CONSTRAINED DUE TO RULES. THE CIMSS ADT AT 1745\r\nUTC WAS 75 KT...WHICH SEEMS MUCH MORE REASONABLE SINCE SMALL...\r\nCOMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN A NORMAL\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL RATE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 75 KT. THE EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...RESULTING IN FURTHER WEAKENING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH\r\nINDICATES A QUICKER WEAKENING TREND. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A DRIFT OR 260/2...WITHIN THE\r\nEASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW OF A WEAKENING\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL\r\nPACIFIC FROM MEXICO. LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...ALLOWING DARBY TO MAINTAIN A SLOW...AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC...\r\nWESTWARD MOTION. AFTERWARD...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE ON THIS HEADING THROUGH\r\nDAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nWHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 13.4N 102.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 13.4N 103.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 103.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 13.8N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 103.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 14.9N 101.9W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 15.2N 101.7W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-06-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DARBY IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY REMAINS REASONABLY WELL ORGANIZED...THERE IS\r\nEVIDENCE THAT DARBY IS BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL RATHER QUICKLY. A 2040\r\nUTC AMSR-E OVERPASS REVEALED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nEAST OF A PLUME OF CONVECTION...INDICATING THAT EASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY...THE LAST\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS SEPARATED FROM\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CENTER...BEING DISPLACED BY NEARLY A DEGREE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 4.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB BUT CONTINUE TO BE CONSTRAINED BY RULES WHILE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED\r\nUW-CIMSS AODT VALUES ARE AROUND 3.5. GIVEN THE RAPID LOSS IN\r\nORGANIZATION AND THE LOWER AODT VALUES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 60 KT. SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER DARBY WHICH IS ONLY FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nSTRONGER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...CALLING FOR DARBY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/2. DARBY IS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK\r\nWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ALEX AND STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW\r\nALOFT. THE RESULTING DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW SHOULD CARRY THE CYCLONE\r\nON A SLOW WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THEREAFTER\r\n...AS DARBY WEAKENS FURTHER AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE...IT AND\r\nEVENTUALLY ITS REMNANTS WILL BE DRAWN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION OF ALEX...WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nSHARPLY TO THE RIGHT RIGHT...BUT NOT AS FAR RIGHT AS THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TO ACCOUNT FOR A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 13.5N 103.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 13.5N 103.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 13.7N 103.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 102.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N 102.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 15.0N 101.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DARBY HAS BEEN BURSTING\r\nINTERMITTENTLY THIS MORNING...BUT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 30 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  THIS STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BASED ON A FEW INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...AN AMSU ESTIMATE\r\nOF 38 KT...A SATELLITE CONSENSUS MEASUREMENT OF 53 KT...AND\r\nCONSTRAINED BY RULES...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 66 KT AND 55\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING\r\nIN A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nSUIT AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS REDUCING\r\nDARBY TO A REMNANT LOW SWIRL OF CLOUDS IN 3 DAYS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 270/3...WITHIN THE LIGHT EASTERLY LOW\r\nTO MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nDARBY FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.  SINCE DARBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nCONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD MAKE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE 24 HR PERIOD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE RATHER LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ALEX CURRENTLY MOVING OVER YUCATAN.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT A LITTLE SLOWER ON\r\nTHE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...AND HEDGES TOWARD THE TVCN MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 13.5N 103.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.5N 103.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 13.9N 103.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 102.5W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 14.5N 101.9W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISTORT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF\r\nDARBY...WITH ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO DROP...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING WILL\r\nLIKELY OCCUR AS A STRONG BURST OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS\r\nCURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE EAST OF DARBY IMPACTS\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SINCE DARBY IS SUCH A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n...IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND SUCH HIGH SHEAR...AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD AND IS NEAR...BUT A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nAN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0854 UTC WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL FOR\r\nFINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM HAS\r\nBECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  NOW THAT DARBY IS WEAKENING...IT IS\r\nMORE LIKELY THAT THE STORM WILL EVENTUALLY BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAS IT IS SWEPT UP BY A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF\r\nMEXICO.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT WHATEVER REMAINS\r\nOF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES\r\nTHE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 13.7N 103.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 13.8N 102.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 14.2N 102.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 14.6N 100.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 15.0N  99.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DARBY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE 15 KT OR SO OF VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR ANALYZED OVER DARBY BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND DATA\r\nFROM A 1556 UTC ASCAT PASS.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASING TO 25 OR 30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING.  DARBY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WITH\r\nDISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nA BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM.  WHATEVER REMAINS OF DARBY IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW EASTWARD...090 DEGREES...AT 4\r\nKNOTS.  THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A LARGE AREA\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE \r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 13.7N 102.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 13.8N 101.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 100.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 14.6N  99.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 14.9N  98.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010\r\n\r\nDARBY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A MASS\r\nOF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  USING AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL\r\nT-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nLEADS TO A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL BECOME\r\nEVEN STRONGER...IN EXCESS OF 30 KT...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS ALSO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.  EVEN THOUGH DARBY\r\nWILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE WEAK\r\nAND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE SOUTH\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 070/3.  THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM\r\nFOR THIS STORM REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGE GYRE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX.  THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE WEAKENING DARBY TO CONTINUE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 13.9N 102.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 14.2N 101.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 14.5N 100.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 14.9N  99.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 15.3N  98.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR. SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 45 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUGGEST 35 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 06 UTC.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS ANALYZED TO BE 35 KT BASED ON THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONES INITIAL MOTION IS 060/5.  THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS WHILE DARBY WEAKENS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWHILE DARBY REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SSTS AND IS EMBEDDED IN VERY\r\nMOIST AIR...THE EFFECTS OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO\r\nCONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  ALL GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT DUE TO THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVERLYING LOW-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DARBY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE\r\nREACHING SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 14.2N 101.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.5N 100.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.0N  98.9W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 15.4N  97.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 15.7N  96.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Darby","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF DARBY HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nBASED ON THE DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE...AND DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nDARBY IS NOW BEING STEERED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS EASTWARD...\r\n090...AT 8 KT. A GENERAL EASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 14.1N  99.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 14.4N  98.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 14.8N  97.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 15.2N  96.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Darby","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP052010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 28 2010\r\n \r\nDARBY HAS BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO AND HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALL\r\nDAY.  THUS...DARBY IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS WILL\r\nBE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25\r\nKT...AND THE WEAK REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE REMNANTS OF DARBY COULD CAUSE\r\nAN INCREASE IN RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO OVERNIGHT AS THE\r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COMES ASHORE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 14.4N  98.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 14.8N  96.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO\r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 30 KT IS BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND 30 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 285/11.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS GRADUALLY BUILD A RIDGE FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nWESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO BY DAY 3...AND\r\nINTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY DAY 5. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nIN A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE PAST 3\r\nDAYS AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES\r\nEXPECTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THAT WOULD ALTER THAT GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS....TVCN.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR\r\nTHE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS\r\nERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY\r\nBE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT\r\nAND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL\r\nLIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST MOTION...THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS\r\nARE REQUIRED.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 14.9N 107.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 15.3N 108.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 16.2N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 16.6N 114.1W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 17.2N 118.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 17.6N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT REMAINS\r\nSTRONGLY SHEARED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IN FACT...HAS WEAKENED\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND CONTINUITY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING\r\nQUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR\r\nLESS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE SHEAR ABATES...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nUNANIMOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT.\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...FOLLOWED BY A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 15.2N 107.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.6N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 16.7N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.1N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E IS STILL STRUGGLING AGAINST STRONG\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND ONLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS\r\nHAS IT BEEN ABLE TO SUSTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 2.0\r\nAND 1.5...RESPECTIVELY...BUT A 0352 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT CAUGHT THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOWED NO STRONG WINDS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN CASE THERE ARE\r\nSTRONGER WINDS IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION...BUT IT IS\r\nREASONABLE THAT THIS COULD BE A 25-KT SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN IT SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26.5C BY DAY 3.  NONE OF THE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS MAKES THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING BY 48 HOURS WHEN THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...BUT ITS AVERAGE MOTION IS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THIS WILL KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD COURSE.  WITH THE\r\nANTICIPATION OF A WEAK SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT 72 AND 96\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM THE NOAA SHIP KAIMIMOANA...LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...WERE HELPFUL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nAND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 15.2N 108.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N 109.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.2N 111.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.8N 112.9W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 17.2N 114.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 17.5N 118.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 17.5N 122.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS OCCASIONALLY TO\r\n80C...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AS REVEALED BY A 0841Z AMSR OVERPASS.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS\r\nT1.5/25 KT. AN UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGED T2.1/31 KT OVER\r\nTHE PAST 3 HOURS...WHILE A 0944Z AMSU ANALYSIS FROM CIRA YIELDED A\r\nPRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1001 MB AND 34 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES\r\nAN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 30 KT...AND THAT VALUE IS USED FOR THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/05...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\nOVERALL...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nAND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD\r\nWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE PERIOD. THE DEEP\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 2 DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTER\r\nTHAT WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER AND IS STEERED MORE\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND SOUTH OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n\r\nOCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO...AND COULD RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION BRIEFLY PRODUCING\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER...STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THAT PERIOD...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PREVENT ANY PERSISTENT INNER-CORE CONVECTION FROM\r\nDEVELOPING. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IF EXPECTED TO DROP SHARPLY\r\nFROM THE CURRENT 25-30 KT TO LESS THAN 15 KT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...AFTER 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 26C...WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION. NEITHER THE SHIPS OR LGEM INTENSITY MODELS MAKE\r\nTHE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO BRING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION UP TO 40-45 KT IN 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM THE NOAA SHIP KA-IMIMOANA...CALL SIGN NWS0009...LOCATED\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN THE ASSESSMENT\r\nOF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 15.3N 108.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N 109.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 17.4N 115.3W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 17.7N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 17.7N 122.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP\r\nMAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE\r\nCENTER OF TD-06E HAD TO BE RELOCATED FARTHER NORTH BASED ON VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1623Z ASCAT OVERPASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO\r\nINDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF 25-30 KT THAT EXTEND 160-250 NMI NORTH\r\nTHROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO OROGRAPHIC\r\nEFFECTS. MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS REPORTED A SUSTAINED EAST WIND OF\r\nABOUT 20 KT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WHICH SUPPORTS THE ASCAT\r\nWINDS SITUATED OFFSHORE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN AT T1.5/25 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGED\r\nT2.5/35 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WHILE UW-CIMSS AND CIRA-NESDIS\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 KT\r\nDURING THE PREVIOUS 6 HOURS. A BLEND OF THESE DATA WOULD GIVE AN\r\nINTENSITY OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT GIVEN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nSHEARED ABOUT 85 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 295/04. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND 12Z POSITION WERE RELOCATED FARTHER NORTH AND EAST\r\nBASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE ASCAT WIND DATA THAT SHOWED A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD POSITION. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHWARD JOG IS BELIEVED TO BE\r\nA TEMPORARY MOTION AND THAT TD-06E SHOULD SOON RESUME A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. OVERALL...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH 48-60 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST...OR EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST...AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nOVER COOLER WATER AND BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY\r\nFLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE\r\nDEPRESSION BRIEFLY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. MODERATE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 18-24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY RELAX TO LESS THAN 15 KT BY\r\n36 HOURS. AS THE SHEAR SLOWLY ABATES...CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nDEVELOP CLOSER TO AND PERSIST NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ALLOWING\r\nFOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 26C...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION UP TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY 24 HOURS...WHEREAS\r\nTHE LGEM MODEL KEEPS THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. BOTH THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE MODELS \r\nAND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...WHICH\r\nCOULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 15.9N 108.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.4N 109.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 17.5N 113.3W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N 115.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 15 2010\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE\r\nWITHOUT INNER CORE FEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW \r\nRAINBANDS SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION AND A RECENT SMALL\r\nBURST NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR HAS APPARENTLY\r\nRELAXED A LITTLE...BASED ON HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES. WHILE THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SHORT-TERM\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY APPROACHING COOLER\r\nWATERS MAKING STRENGTHENING UNLIKELY. IN FACT...MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.          \r\n\r\nBECAUSE IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS FORCING THE DEPRESSION WESTWARD.\r\nONCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OCCURS...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE\r\nWINDS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 16.7N 109.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.3N 110.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 17.9N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.2N 113.9W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 18.4N 115.8W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.5N 119.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062010\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 16 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION...0512 UTC ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nSYSTEM CONSISTS OF A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LIGHT WINDS...AND\r\n0605 UTC TRMM DATA SHOWS MULTIPLE EMBEDDED LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES.  SINCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND NO LONGER\r\nSATISFIES THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY.  AT THIS POINT...REGENERATION APPEARS UNLIKELY SINCE\r\nMODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO...JUST AS THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER WATERS\r\nCOLDER THAN 26.5C.  THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 300/9...BUT THIS IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  THE\r\nREMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY\r\nTRADE WINDS...BUT THE MOTION COULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER ERRATIC.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 17.2N 109.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.8N 111.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.3N 113.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 18.6N 115.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 18.6N 117.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 05 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE SMALL LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nDEFINED AND HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nWERE 2.5...WHICH SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT A PERHAPS CONSERVATIVE 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE\r\nSMALL CYCLONE VERY WELL AND MANY OF THEM SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nINTERACTING WITH ITCZ DISTURBANCES TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION. \r\nTHIS RESULTS IN MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICTING A SLOWER AND\r\nMORE ERRATIC TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SCENARIO SEEMS\r\nUNREALISTIC AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THAT\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE BAM MEDIUM AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DECELERATE.  DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN\r\nNORMAL.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THIS IS AT THE\r\nUPPER-END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATER WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 16.0N 102.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 16.4N 103.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 105.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 17.7N 106.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 19.7N 110.8W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 20.7N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nRE-FORMING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF SATELLITE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600\r\nUTC OF 25 KT AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0436\r\nUTC THAT SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 25-30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 290/9. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING\r\nTHE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. BEYOND 72 HOURS\r\n...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED\r\nBY A SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES. WHILE THIS PATTERN WOULD USUALLY FAVOR A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW BY THAT TIME\r\nAS IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD\r\nIN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...AND THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NONE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 16.3N 103.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 104.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.3N 106.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.0N 107.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.7N 109.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 111.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 20.5N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES ON THE SOUTH AND\r\nEAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION.  WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO\r\nCONFIRM THE INITIAL POSITION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT\r\n30 KT...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB.  HOWEVER\r\nTHIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE\r\nCENTER IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LOW\r\nSHEAR AND WARM WATER LIKELY.  IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING GIVEN THE FORECAST\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO\r\nCHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...290/9...\r\nALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK RIDGING OVER MEXICO\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON\r\nWHETHER THE CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A BREAK\r\nIN THE RIDGE...OR CONTINUE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME.\r\nGENERALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHILE THE\r\nHWRF/GFDL AND THE BAMS GUIDANCE ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN 6\r\nHOURS AGO. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 16.6N 104.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.1N 105.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.8N 107.1W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N 108.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 109.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n \r\nAFTER A RATHER LONG...PERHAPS UNPRECEDENTED...BREAK IN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE HEART OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...\r\nESTELLE HAS FORMED.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE A CDO-TYPE PATTERN\r\nFORMING NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE CURVED\r\nBANDS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH AGENCIES ARE 35 KT...AND\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nLIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO GIVEN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT\r\nSHEAR...UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND RATHER WARM WATERS.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE...BUT NONE OF THEM MAKE\r\nESTELLE A HURRICANE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD...AND\r\nREMAINS NEAR OR ABOVE THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES HELPED SET THE INITIAL MOTION AT\r\n290/10.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE\r\nTO RIDGING OVER MEXICO.  THERE REMAINS A SPLIT IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE WITH THE GFDL/HWRF/GFDN MOVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FARTHER SOUTH...SHOWING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM THAT\r\nSLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS BEFORE IT REACHES THE BREAK...A SOUTHERN SOLUTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...AT THE\r\nLONGER-RANGES OF THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 17.2N 105.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.7N 106.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEALED SEVERAL CURVED\r\nBANDS AND A DEVELOPING CDO.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.\r\nESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nWARM WATER FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nEXPECTED.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND SO DOES THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER\r\nWATER AND STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN.\r\n \r\nESTELLE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT. THE\r\nSYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. ONCE ESTELLE WEAKENS AND BECOME\r\nA SHALLOW SYSTEM IT WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN EVEN\r\nMORE. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL TURN THE SYSTEM\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION...BUT FOR NOW THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 17.2N 106.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 17.8N 107.5W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N 109.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 19.1N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 19.3N 112.2W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 19.5N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF ESTELLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH TOPS AS COLD AS -80C...HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ALONG WITH A FEW CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT THAT VALUE. A 0344 UTC TRMM\r\nPASS AND A 0416 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nESTELLE REFORMED ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED LOCATION. THIS REFORMATION CREATES A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/9. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SIGNIFICANT\r\nDECELERATION IS FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nLOCATION AND IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS\r\nESTELLE REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\nWARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 60 KT.\r\nBY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 26C...AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBEGIN AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 16.8N 106.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 17.2N 108.0W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 17.6N 109.4W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N 110.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 18.3N 111.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n \r\nA LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WEST OF\r\nTHE APPARENT CENTER OF ESTELLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nFIRST VISIBLE IMAGES ARE A LITTLE INCONCLUSIVE... A RECENT 1231 UTC\r\nSSMI PASS WAS QUITE USEFUL IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nCURRENT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE TAKES ITS TOLL\r\nON ESTELLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT REMAINS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSPECTRUM.    \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/8.  A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS\r\nLIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS TO THE NORTH\r\nOF ESTELLE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN\r\nAND IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY LATE TOMORROW. \r\nTHE ALTERNATE SCENARIO OF THE STORM TURNING MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nIS NOT FAVORED AT THIS TIME...WITH ONLY THE NOGAPS AND HWRF SHOWING\r\nTHAT MOTION. THE OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.   STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nSHOULD CAUSE ESTELLE TO SLOW DRAMATICALLY IN THE LONG RANGE...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AS A REMNANT LOW.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 17.1N 107.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.3N 108.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 17.9N 111.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 112.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 17.8N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CURVED BAND\r\nAROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE STORM.  THE STORM LOOKS\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THAN A FEW HOURS AGO...AND SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  USING A\r\nBLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR ESTELLE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE\r\nIT MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT BY LATE SUNDAY.  MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM\r\nBEFORE STEADY WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nGUIDANCE.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY BY ABOUT DAY 4 DUE TO\r\nSTRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A COOL STABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/9.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF ESTELLE FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AS\r\nTHE RIDGE WEAKENS...THE STORM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE\r\nWESTWARD AS IT BECOMES AFFECTED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD...AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE\r\nREMNANTS OF ESTELLE COULD BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AT THE LONG-RANGE AND MOVE FARTHER EAST THAN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST INDICATES BELOW...AS SUGGESTED BY SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 17.1N 108.7W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.5N 112.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.5N 113.2W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 114.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     12/1800Z 16.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010\r\n\r\nTHE LAST FEW GOES-E VISIBLE IMAGES AND A 2334Z AMSU MICROWAVE PASS\r\nINDICATED A SMALL OVAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nCENTER OF ESTELLE.  OUTER BANDS REMAIN IMPRESSIVE...PARTICULARLY\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 55 KT.  DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...THE\r\nGLOBAL AND SHIPS MODELS FORECAST AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SOME\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING...BEFORE THE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND A STABLE AIR MASS INDUCES GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE IMPROVING CLOUD PATTERN AND\r\nDIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...IS BASED ON THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND SHOWS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND A LITTLE SLOWER...280/7...AND IS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER\r\nTRMM...AMSU...AND SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ESTELLE WILL WEAKEN FURTHER IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING\r\nMAJOR SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD DECREASE FURTHER...POSSIBLY TO A WESTWARD DRIFT IN 3 DAYS. \r\nAFTERWARD...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT\r\nLOW OF ESTELLE WILL COMMENCE A GENERAL DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST\r\nAND EAST WITHIN AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 17.3N 109.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 17.4N 110.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 112.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 17.5N 113.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 114.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 113.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010\r\n \r\nCENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nWITH CLOUD TOPS COOLING TO -82C AT TIMES. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL\r\nTREND HAS BEEN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF THE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST. THE CENTER HAS BEEN POSITIONED JUST NORTH\r\nOF THE COLDEST OVERSHOOTING TOPS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A 0248Z\r\nTRMM OVERPASS THAT REVEALED A COMPACT CYCLONE POSSESSING A\r\nSMALL MID-LEVEL EYE-LIKE FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.5/55 KT. ALTHOUGH BRIEF BURSTS OF\r\nCONVECTION IN SUCH SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN RESULT IN A QUICK\r\nSPIN-UP OF THE WIND FIELD...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/09...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS POSITION AND TRACK BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. THERE IS\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION. THE\r\nWEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING ON A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BEYOND \r\nTHAT TIME THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nTURN SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW...AND COULD BE CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL\r\nMONSOONAL FLOW BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nAND ESTELLE COULD STILL REACH 60 KT INTENSITY. BY 24 HOURS...A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE DUE TO A COMBINATION\r\nOF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0900Z 17.8N 110.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1800Z 17.9N 111.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 112.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/1800Z 18.0N 113.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/0600Z 18.0N 114.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/0600Z 17.9N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     12/0600Z 17.2N 115.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/0600Z 16.4N 114.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER\r\nOF ESTELLE.  HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF\r\nSHAPE...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST LESS ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 50\r\nKT...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. \r\nESTELLE HAS CROSSED THE 26.5C ISOTHERM AND HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN\r\nINTENSITY.  DECREASING SSTS...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND\r\nINCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A SLOW WEAKENING OF\r\nESTELLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT CLOSE\r\nTO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD\r\nTRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nESTELLE.  AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE RELIABLE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0000Z 18.1N 112.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1200Z 18.1N 113.1W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0000Z 18.1N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     11/1200Z 17.6N 115.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     12/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF\r\nESTELLE HAS BECOME DETACHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ITS DECAYING\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTER.  CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN DECREASING AND IS ONLY\r\nPRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED\r\nTO 40 KT... CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nDUE TO A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ESTELLE MOVING\r\nINTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY BY\r\n36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nA 12-HR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/4.  THIS SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WITH A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY UNTIL ESTELLE BECOMES A\r\nREMNANT LOW.  THEREAFTER THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT\r\nLOW MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO A\r\nLARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION TO THE EAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/0600Z 18.0N 111.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     09/1800Z 17.9N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/0600Z 17.8N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/1800Z 17.6N 114.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     12/1800Z 16.7N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     13/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010\r\n \r\nSPORADIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF\r\nESTELLE.  BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT.  AS ESTELLE CONTINUES\r\nWESTWARD...IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF\r\nINCREASED STABILITY AND STRONGER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND CALLS FOR ESTELLE TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36\r\nHOURS...WITH THE STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWING AN\r\nEVEN MORE RAPID RATE OF WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-HR MOTION IS 270/4 AND A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BEGINS TO\r\nFEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE\r\nEAST AND LOW-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0300Z 17.8N 111.7W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 17.7N 114.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010\r\n \r\nANOTHER STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO\r\n-85C HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY\r\nOF 40 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 41 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\nAT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n \r\nESTELLE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE BEST MOTION ESTIMATE FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY IS 270/4. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nTHEN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BE DRAWN\r\nBACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BE\r\nABSORBED INTO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR HAS\r\nBEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN THE\r\nEARLIER EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS AN APPARENT REGION OF INSTABILITY THAT CONTAINS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. AS THAT NARROW UNSTABLE REGION MOVES ACROSS ESTELLE...\r\nNEW CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...HELPING\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 6 TO\r\nPERHAPS 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KT...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS\r\nDISSIPATE ESTELLE BY 72 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ESTELLE AS A WEAK CYCLONE THROUGH AT\r\nLEAST 96 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 17.7N 112.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 17.6N 112.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 17.5N 113.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 17.4N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 17.2N 114.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 16.2N 112.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER\r\nAS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ESTELLE. THE MORNING\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOSTLY\r\nSURROUNDED BY STABLE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED\r\nTO 35 KT.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A DEPRESSION\r\nSOON AND A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nESTELLE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...SOUTH...AND EAST AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO STRONG\r\nLOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN MERGE\r\nTHE SYSTEM INTO A LARGER ITCZ LOW WITHIN A FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BIT SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 17.7N 112.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.6N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N 113.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 17.4N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 17.1N 113.9W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010\r\n \r\nSOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nESTELLE THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS\r\nEXPOSED.  A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFERENT LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM.  A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB SUPPORTS AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...MAKING ESTELLE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\nA SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...GIVEN FORECAST\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 25-30 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  REMNANT LOW\r\nSTATUS IS PROBABLE BY 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nESTELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES\r\nAROUND THE LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MEXICO.  RELIABLE\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE ONLY POTENTIAL\r\nFLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION OF\r\nESTELLE AFTER IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO A WARMER WATER\r\nAND LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN A FEW DAYS.  AT THIS POINT...IT\r\nSEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT ESTELLE WILL BECOME PART OF THE LOW TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AS SEEN\r\nIN SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 17.7N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.6N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.4N 113.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 16.7N 112.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE HAS SUCCUMBED\r\nTO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LEAVING THE CENTER EXPOSED\r\nTO THE EAST OF WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS WELL-DEFINED AND FAIRLY VIGOROUS.\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE AT 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND\r\nSERVE AS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nINCREASING TO 30-35 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS PROHIBITIVELY\r\nHIGH FOR THE SURVIVAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS ESTELLE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS\r\nCOULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n\r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE A SLOW WESTERLY MOTION...BUT THE\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST.  ESTELLE OR\r\nITS REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN EAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO ITS EAST\r\nWITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO. \r\nHOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ESTELLE...OR ITS\r\nREMNANT...ABSORBING THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST WITHIN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ESTELLE COULD\r\nREGENERATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOMEWHAT REDUCED VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nCANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 17.6N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.6N 113.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 17.3N 113.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.5N 112.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE DISSIPATED AROUND\r\n01Z...BUT SOME MODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -62C \r\nREDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 05Z AND HAS PERSISTED\r\nSINCE THEN. THAT CONVECTION...ALONG WITH TIGHT LOW-LEVEL BANDING\r\nFEATURES/CLOUD LINES NOTED IN VARIOUS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR KEEPING ESTELLE BARELY\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS SINCE 00Z INDICATE ESTELLE HAS MADE A\r\nSLOW TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE NOW OF\r\n235/02. AS ESTELLE CONTINUES TO WEAKENS AND BECOME A MORE SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS IT\r\nGETS DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH. ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON WHETHER OR NOT ESTELLE REMAINS A\r\nSEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE OFF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS\r\nTHE ONLY MODEL NOW THAT HAS ESTELLE BEING ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER\r\nDISTURBANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST AND LIES ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD HASTEN THE\r\nDEMISE OF ESTELLE LEAVING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 12\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER...AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nMODELS. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL OF THE MODELS TO DECREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KT...WHICH LEAVES\r\nOPEN THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN\r\nESTELLE AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 17.4N 113.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 17.0N 113.4W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.6N 113.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 16.2N 112.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 111.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Estelle","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP072010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 10 2010\r\n \r\nSTRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN A FINAL TOLL ON ESTELLE AS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AROUND THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER...WITH ONLY SOME OCCASIONAL MODEST BURSTS OF WEAK CONVECTION\r\nIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE LACK OF ANY PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ESTELLE NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION\r\nOCCURS. \r\n \r\nTHE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nMOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AND GET DRAWN INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH.\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THEY STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON WHETHER OR NOT\r\nESTELLE REMAINS A SEPARATE ENTITY OR GETS ABSORBED BY THE\r\nDISTURBANCE OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. GIVEN THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THIS DISTURBANCE...THE\r\nLATTER SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND GENERALLY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 17.3N 112.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.1N 112.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.9N 112.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 16.7N 111.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 111.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ORRISON\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-20 12:30:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n530 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0445 UTC SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST\r\nOF MANZANILLO HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS.  THE\r\nMULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR ANALYZED BY SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF TIME IN WHICH TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN...AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO SUB 27-C WATERS IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR OF 20 TO 30\r\nKNOTS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE UNTIL IT REACHES THE COOLER\r\nWATER.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN ABOUT\r\n3 DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 320/6.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  ALL OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE DEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nTHE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1230Z 18.7N 107.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 19.3N 108.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 20.0N 109.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 20.4N 111.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 20.6N 112.1W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS...HOWEVER THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WHILE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DO NOT SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTENSIFYING...IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE COULD REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN THE NEXT 6 TO\r\n12 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT...AND BY 36 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND\r\nDISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...OR 320\r\nDEGREES...AT 6 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST...AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES SHALLOW...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...AND LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 19.1N 107.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.8N 108.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.4N 110.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 20.7N 111.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 20.8N 112.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AS\r\nTHE 20 TO 30 KNOTS OF SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE SYSTEM.  SHOWERS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN PULSING\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT REMAIN RATHER SHAPELESS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE\r\nFROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO REMAIN 20 KT OR HIGHER OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING\r\nOVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY 36 HOURS.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO FOLLOW ON GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGERY...AND APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS 305/08.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  BY SUNDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A SHALLOW\r\nFEATURE AND WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...AND LIES NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 20.1N 109.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 20.7N 112.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 20 2010\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS COMPRISED OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL\r\nCLOUDS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DISORGANIZED AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND\r\n25 KT FROM TAFB...AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS BACK NEAR 18Z SHOWED 30 KT\r\nWINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A\r\nCOMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND MODERATE-STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 24 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.  WEAK\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT\r\nPACIFIC SHOULD FIRST STEER THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 20.2N 110.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.6N 111.1W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 20.9N 112.3W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 21.0N 113.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL SHAPELESS AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE COMBINED EFFECTS\r\nOF MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST NOW CALLS FOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND\r\nDISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/9...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE\r\nDEPRESSION BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 20.4N 110.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 20.7N 111.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 20.9N 112.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 20.9N 113.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB. \r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nTODAY...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY.  THE SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nWATERS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT IS OTHERWISE\r\nSIMILAR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 20.6N 111.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 112.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 21.1N 113.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 21.0N 114.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL NEARLY VOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND\r\nTHE COLD WATER COMBINED WITH 20 TO 25 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWILL LIKELY REDUCE THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE ENTIRELY WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nEARLIER.  THE DEPRESSION AND ITS REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nSLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 20.7N 111.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 20.8N 112.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 20.9N 113.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP082010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT-E SINCE ABOUT 15Z...AND THE SYSTEM CENTER IS MOVING OVER\r\nSTEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  SIGNIFICANT\r\nRE-DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW.  THE LOW SHOULD\r\nMOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR BEFORE DISSIPATING\r\nCOMPLETELY.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 21.1N 112.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 21.2N 113.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 21.2N 114.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 21.1N 115.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND THE DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF MULTIPLE CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS.  THEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nINITIATED AT THIS TIME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC.  \r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM...AS THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED\r\nBENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS OF\r\nALMOST 30C.  BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE INTENSITY OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE PRIMARY DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE\r\nCENTER WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM\r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING WESTWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.  BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING ONSHORE...ALTHOUGH THE GFS SHOWS THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING\r\nWITH A SECOND VORTEX DURING THIS TIME THAT NONE OF THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE LIFTS NORTH.  THIS\r\nSOLUTION REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE\r\nGUIDANCE...EXCLUDING THE GFS.  THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nLARGER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE WEAK INITIAL STEERING\r\nPATTERN AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH THE MONSOON FLOW AND LAND. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 13.9N  93.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 13.9N  93.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 13.8N  94.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 13.7N  95.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 13.7N  96.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 14.0N  98.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 15.0N 101.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 16.0N 103.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTIVE FEATURE HAS FORMED WITH SOME OUTER BANDING.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nIN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A SOMEWHAT ERRATIC 270/3.  THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW ENVIRONMENT...AND IN THE SHORT-TERM\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL ERRATIC MOTION MAY BE SUPERIMPOSED ON A WESTWARD\r\nDRIFT.  AFTER 24 HOURS OR SO...A BUILDING LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nGFS AND THE HWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING ONSHORE NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...WHILE THE UKMET HAS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK ALONG OR CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS A MOTION PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND\r\nIS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-60 HOURS.  THE SHIPS\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS A 85-90 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25 KT OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND A 40-45 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF 40 KT OF INTENSIFICATION.  ON THE OTHER HAND...ANY MOTION\r\nTHAT BRINGS THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WOULD LIKELY\r\nPREVENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION. ALSO...THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH KEEPS\r\nTHE CENTER OFFSHORE...DOES NOT FORECAST HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  DUE TO THESE THINGS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nDOES NOT CALL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  INSTEAD...IT WILL BE\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE BELOW...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.  \r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nPACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY IF THE DEPRESSION TRACKS CLOSE TO\r\nLAND OR BECOMES LARGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 13.8N  93.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 13.8N  94.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 13.8N  95.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.8N  96.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 13.9N  97.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 14.5N 100.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 17.0N 104.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  BANDING FEATURES...HOWEVER...ARE NOT\r\nWELL-DEFINED AT THIS TIME.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD JUST BELOW TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  BASED ON THE SHIPS OUTPUT...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LESS THAN 10 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT EASTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nINCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nINTENSIFIES TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD LIMIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUCH AS A DEEP \r\nLAYER MOISTURE AND VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD FAVOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS NOT VERY EASY TO LOCATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/6.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nNONE OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CENTER VERY CLOSE\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT\r\nON A TRACK PARALLELING THE COAST...THERE ARE SUBSTANTIAL\r\nDIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SLOWER THAN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL TRACK CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIT IS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 13.7N  94.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.7N  95.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.8N  96.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N  98.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.3N  99.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 15.4N 102.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 107.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE 2.5\r\nFROM SAB AND 3.0 FROM TAFB.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS\r\nSATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOW THAT FRANK IS LOCATED IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THIS...COMBINED WITH WARM WATERS AND A VERY MOIST\r\nLOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERE SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 15 TO 20\r\nKNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH COULD TEMPER\r\nINTENSIFICATION SOMEWHAT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nAN 0804 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND 1201 UTC SSM/I PASS WERE HELPFUL IN\r\nLOCATING THE CENTER...WHICH IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND\r\nWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n270/6...AS THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CORE\r\nOF THE RIDGE SHIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nAND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FRANK TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN A DAY OR SO...AND REMAIN ON THAT HEADING\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS\r\nCONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW CLOSE FRANK WILL GET TO THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD\r\nTOWARD THE TVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING IS NOW NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST.  BASED ON\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS\r\nABOUT A 20 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nAFFECTING ANY INDIVIDUAL POINT LOCATION WITHIN THE WARNING\r\nAREA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 14.0N  95.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.1N  96.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.2N  97.8W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N  99.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.1N 100.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.5N 106.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 109.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\n...A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE CENTER\r\nOF FRANK.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KNOTS FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nDESPITE SHOWING THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS BY 12 HOURS...THE\r\nSTATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS HAVE TRENDED SHARPLY UPWARD IN THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING AND AN\r\nOTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD...BUT NOW LIES A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nTHROUGH DAY 2 AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/07...AND THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THROUGH THE PERIOD FRANK SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED PRIMARILY WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  WHILE ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD HAS INCREASED\r\n...ESPECIALLY IN TERMS OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND LIES NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  LATE IN PERIOD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO ACAPULCO.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 13.9N  96.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.0N  97.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.3N  98.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 14.8N 100.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.4N 101.7W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 16.5N 104.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF FRANK HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING.\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE HAVE\r\nWEAKENED WHILE INCREASED BANDING IS OCCURRING TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50\r\nKT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 55 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES FROM CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW\r\nTHAT FRANK IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAINS LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF FRANK.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH\r\nSLOWER THAN THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST\r\n48 HOURS.  THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR AT LEAST A STEADY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE\r\nFASTER THAN THE GFS/ECMWF...BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE REGIONAL\r\nHURRICANE MODELS.  GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINLY AT 72 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE TVCN\r\nCONSENSUS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  DESPITE SHOWING AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS BRING FRANK TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN TWO DAYS. THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS SHOW A\r\nLITTLE LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THEY DID BEFORE.  THE UPDATED\r\nFORECAST REMAINS CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH WESTWARD ALONG THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 14.0N  96.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 14.2N  97.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N  99.5W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 15.7N 102.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 16.7N 104.6W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 17.7N 107.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 18.5N 110.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF\r\nFRANK.  THE SYSTEM IS EXHIBITING A CDO-TYPE PATTERN WITH VERY\r\nCOLD-TOPPED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER POSITION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE UNCHANGED...AND THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT.\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER FRANK IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO OVER 20 KT AS AN\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS DEPICTED BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION SO FRANK IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBASED ON CENTER POSITION ESTIMATES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY...THE MOTION CONTINUES JUST NORTH OF WEST AT NEAR 7 KT.  A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS FLOW\r\nPATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR FRANK OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND A SLOWING\r\nOF THE FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED BY DAYS 4 TO 5.  THE GFDL/HWRF/\r\nGFS MODELS TAKE FRANK QUITE CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO\r\nIN ABOUT 3 DAYS...WHEREAS THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FARTHER OFFSHORE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST A TAD TO THE NORTH\r\nOF...THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND\r\nWATCH ARE EXTENDED FARTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 14.3N  97.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.5N  98.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 101.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.4N 102.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS ERODED CONSIDERABLY\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF AT\r\nLEAST 25 KT. OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA SHIP NWS0020 TO THE NORTH OF\r\nAND SHIP A8SG2 SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD HAS NOT EXPANDED AS FAR AS PREVIOUS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT DUE TO\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED DECREASE IN CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE FIX POSITIONS SUGGEST THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK OVER THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nAND DESERT SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP FRANK MOVING IN A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AND PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST. BY DAY 5...THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nPERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. AS A RESULT...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD. HOWEVER...BY 72-96 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE TO AROUND 15 KT AND ALSO SWING AROUND TO THE EAST AND THEN\r\nSOUTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY\r\nMODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN HIGHER THAN THE MODELS AFTER\r\nTHAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n \r\nBASED ON SHIP REPORTS INDICATING A SMALLER WIND FIELD...NO CHANGES\r\nTO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH AREA FOR THE\r\nPACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE REQUIRED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 14.4N  98.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 14.7N  99.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.2N 100.7W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 15.9N 102.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 16.7N 103.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 17.9N 106.7W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 18.9N 109.6W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":9,"Date":"2010-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nERODE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST CONVECTION\r\nHAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nAT 1800 UTC...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS INDICATE FRANK HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING AT 285/08...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME RATHER LARGE\r\nWOBBLES. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRANK OFFSHORE AND ON A TRACK PARALLEL\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST. BY DAY 5...A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nPERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE\r\nWESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nFORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE\r\nPERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...THAT\r\nCOULD RESULT IN BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE...ANY SUSTAINED\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE TO LESS\r\nTHAN 15 KT. HOWEVER...BY 120 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN HIGHER THAN THE MODELS AFTER THAT DUE AN EXPECTED DECREASE\r\nIN THE SHEAR.\r\n \r\nNEARBY SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRANK POSSESSES A SMALL\r\nWIND FIELD. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH AND WARNING AREAS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE\r\nREQUIRED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 14.9N  99.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.2N 100.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.8N 101.9W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N 105.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":10,"Date":"2010-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010\r\n \r\nAFTER APPEARING RATHER RAGGED EARLIER TODAY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER THE CENTER OF FRANK DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nDIAGNOSES ABOUT 20-25 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR OVER FRANK.  THE SHEAR\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE...BUT REMAIN AROUND 15\r\nKT UNTIL THE CYCLONE APPROACHES COOLER WATER IN 3-4 DAYS. SINCE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO A GFDL/SHIPS/LGEM CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/8 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM BEFORE.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHIS MOTION SHOULD KEEP FRANK ON A TRACK PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN\r\nAND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE TVCN CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSINCE FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO GROW SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER IN SIZE\r\nAND THERE IS NOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE\r\nCHANCES OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO HAVE DECREASED.  THEREFORE...THE GOVERNMENT OF\r\nMEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH.\r\n \r\nONSHORE MONSOONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE EAST OF FRANK IS\r\nPRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THESE RAINS...WHILE NOT DIRECTLY ATTRIBUTABLE TO\r\nFRANK...COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 15.2N 100.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.6N 101.3W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.2N 102.8W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 16.9N 104.5W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 17.7N 106.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 18.8N 109.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 19.8N 111.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":11,"Date":"2010-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  A RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED\r\nNEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND BANDING\r\nFEATURES ARE ILL-DEFINED.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BASED ON\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES FROM TAFB AND SAB...REMAIN AT 45 KT SO THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED.  DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR TO RELAX A BIT IN A DAY OR TWO...BUT IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT FRANK FROM\r\nSTRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nJUST A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD MOTION...BUT\r\nOTHERWISE THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  BY DAYS 4 TO\r\n5...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH DIGS OVER CALIFORNIA AND BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS FRANK WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO\r\nAND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALTHOUGH THESE\r\nRAINS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK...THEY STILL POSE A\r\nFLOOD THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 15.3N 100.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 102.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.3N 103.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 105.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 17.7N 107.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 19.0N 110.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z 20.0N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":12,"Date":"2010-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS MADE A RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING\r\nDEVELOPED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 3 HOURS. A\r\n24/0924Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS AND\r\nTHAT A 75 PERCENT EYEWALL HAD FORMED. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVECTION\r\nIN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY. A SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 OR 55 KT WAS ANALYZED BY BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nMOTION OF 285/06. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nOVER THE PAST 3 DAYS. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO KEEP FRANK MOVING IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF U.S. WEST COAST AND\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND DECREASE THE STEERING FLOW. THE LATEST GFDL RUN NOW TAKES\r\nFRANK AND ITS WIND FIELD MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO BY 36-48 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST\r\nSTRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFRANK...THE GFDL SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY. ALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED\r\nSHIPS MODEL INDICATES NEAR 20 KT CURRENTLY ACROSS FRANK...THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS STILL BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SIMILAR SHEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS FRANK\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES AND\r\nWATER VAPOR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE ACTUAL SHEAR OVER THE CENTER OF\r\nFRANK IS CLOSER TO 15 KT. BY 36 HOURS...ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL AND\r\nSTATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO\r\nDECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT...WHICH WOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER FRANK BY 48 HOURS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANK\r\nCOULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS FRANK WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO WERE DISCONTINUED\r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO\r\nAND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ALTHOUGH THESE\r\nRAINS ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK...THEY STILL POSE A\r\nSERIOUS FLOOD THREAT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 15.4N 101.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 15.8N 102.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N 104.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 17.2N 106.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 17.9N 107.6W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":13,"Date":"2010-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS CONTINUED TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY AS INDICATED BY\r\nIMPROVED BANDING FEATURES TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nSMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE NOTED EARLIER TODAY HAS ERODED\r\nSOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER\r\nREMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION AT LEAST 35 NMI IN FROM THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB. NHC\r\n3-HR AVERAGE ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BETWEEN T3.8/61 KT AND\r\nT3.7/59 KT. PEAK ADT VALUES WERE T3.9/63 KT BETWEEN 15-16Z. BASED\r\nON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 60 KT. A\r\n1554Z ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO DEFINE THE 50- AND 34-KT WIND RADII.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/07. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFRANK IS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD\r\nAND WEAKENS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE GFDL MODEL...\r\nWHICH HAD BEEN THE RIGHT-MOST OUTLIER MODEL WITH A TRACK FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO MEXICO HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS NOW BACK IN THE FOLD AS\r\nONE OF THE LEFT-MOST MODELS IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND\r\nREMAINS BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCC.\r\n \r\nA SLIGHT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR COMBINED WITH SOME DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...MODEST\r\nCONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING IN THE DRY SLOT SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nEFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. FRANK IS ALSO MOVING\r\nINTO A REGION OF LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR BASED ON UW-CIMSS SHEAR\r\nANALYSES AND WATER VAPOR-DERIVED WINDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO FORECAST FRANK TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD EASILY SUPPORT FORMATION\r\nOF A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nEVEN THE GFDL MODEL BRINGS FRANK UP TO 74 KT BY 36 HOURS. BY DAY\r\n4...FRANK SHOULD BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...\r\nAND HIGHER THAN THOSE MODELS AFTER THAT BASED ON THE FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.1N 103.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 16.8N 105.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.1N 108.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z 19.3N 111.2W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     28/1800Z 20.2N 112.6W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     29/1800Z 21.5N 113.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":14,"Date":"2010-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 24 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF FRANK HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...EARLIER AMSR-E AND AMSU MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...WHICH IS NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK DATA \r\nT-NUMBERS OF 3.5 OR 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB. \r\n\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GIVE FRANK AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN BEFORE. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE 18Z GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE FRANK REACHING HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY VERY SOON...THIS SEEMS UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTRONG SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL APPEARS MORE REASONABLE BY\r\nSTRENGTHENING FRANK AFTER THE SHEAR DECREASES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST PREDICTS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS\r\nAND BRINGS FRANK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS FRANK MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE UPDATED\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120\r\nHOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  FRANK IS MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/8 KT.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FRANK IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECELERATE AS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES\r\nWEAKENS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 16.0N 102.9W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 16.4N 104.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 17.7N 107.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 111.8W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0000Z 20.5N 113.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":15,"Date":"2010-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT AMSU-B OVERPASS INDICATE\r\nTHAT FRANK HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE IMAGERY\r\nREVEALS A WELL DEVELOPED BANDING FEATURE WITH -80C CLOUD TOPS\r\nEXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OVER THE CYCLONE...AND A STRONG\r\nBURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nRECENT TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING STRONG CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UP TO 60 KT.  THE UW-CIMSS\r\nSHEAR PRODUCT SUGGESTS THAT SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...HOWEVER...THE UPPER FLOW IS QUITE DIFFLUENT...\r\nPARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WHERE THE\r\nSTRONG BAND RESIDES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR\r\nFRANK TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...BUT SOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.  BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD...A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AS AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIR\r\nMASS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 285/8.  FRANK IS MOVING WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS.  AFTERWARD...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nIN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING ALONG THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE U.S.  THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD\r\nCAUSE FRANK TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST...AND THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS BY DAY 5.  THE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH\r\nOR LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE NHC OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nTVCN...AND THE ECMWF GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 16.2N 103.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 16.6N 105.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 17.1N 106.8W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 17.7N 108.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 18.3N 110.3W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N 112.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/0600Z 21.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":16,"Date":"2010-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES FRANK HAS BECOME\r\nMUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND THAT THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF A VERY COLD CDO WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C TO -86C.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...ALTHOUGH DATA-T NUMBERS WERE A CONSENSUS T5.0/90 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE...FRANK IS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFRANK REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. \r\nHURRICANE FRANK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A STEADY\r\nPACE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nIS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ERODE\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...\r\nFRANK IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHWARD AND POSSIBLY BEGIN\r\nRECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nREMAINS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nAN 0834 UTC AMSR MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED FRANK HAD A CLOSED LOW- \r\nAND MID-LEVEL EYE WITH TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL INDICATE AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER FRANK DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\nBOTH MODELS ARE ALSO FORECASTING FRANK TO STRENGTHEN VERTICALLY AS\r\nDEPICTED BY A 45-55 KT CYCLONIC 200 MB CIRCULATION BY 24 HOURS.\r\nTHIS FEATURE WOULD GENERALLY INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE...BUT\r\nTHE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL ONLY BRINGS FRANK UP TO 76 KT. THE GFDL IS\r\nABOUT 10 KT HIGHER. BY 72 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING\r\nOVER MUCH COOLER WATER... WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING\r\nTREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 16.6N 104.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 17.0N 106.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N 108.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z 18.2N 109.8W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1200Z 18.8N 111.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N 113.2W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N 113.8W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":17,"Date":"2010-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE HAD BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF FRANK THROUGH\r\nMUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO THE\r\nBEGINNINGS OF AN EYE BECAME APPARENT. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT\r\n18Z WERE 65 KT AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS ABOUT 36-48 HOURS LEFT OVER WARM WATER...AND WITH THE SHEAR\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS...WITH THE LGEM AND HWRF\r\nSHOWING LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. AFTER 48 HOURS...A\r\nGRADUAL DECAY OVER COOLER WATERS IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS AS THOUGH FRANK IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER NOW...AT\r\n285/11. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nFRANK SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF\r\nTHE U.S. AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY\r\nSHIFTED TO THE WEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS\r\n4-5...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL EASTWARD AND\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION...RESPECTIVELY...AND ARE POSSIBLY MAINTAINING TOO\r\nCOHERENT A VORTEX AT THOSE RANGES. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...SUGGEST THAT A RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONE WILL\r\nMOVE SLOWLY WITHIN AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 17.0N 106.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 17.4N 107.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z 17.9N 109.7W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 111.6W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 113.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     29/1800Z 21.0N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     30/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":18,"Date":"2010-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 25 2010\r\n \r\nTHE BANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE THAT BRIEFLY APPEARED DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON HAS SINCE DISAPPEARED BENEATH THE CIRRUS CANOPY.\r\nTHE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL AN EYE AND HAS \r\nBEEN HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE LOCATION AND INITIAL MOTION OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM\r\nUW/CIMSS.  THE SHEAR HAS OBVIOUSLY WEAKENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAS FRANK REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS LITTLE...IF ANY...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12 KT.  FRANK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nIN 2-3 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD AS\r\nA MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH\r\nAMERICA.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERGENT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS \r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nWHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY NORTH OR\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON ASCAT DATA THAT\r\nARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 17.2N 107.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 17.6N 109.2W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z 18.1N 111.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1200Z 18.5N 112.4W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0000Z 19.1N 113.4W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0000Z 20.3N 114.3W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0000Z 21.3N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0000Z 22.5N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":19,"Date":"2010-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2010\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR 120 HOUR FORECAST STATUS\r\n \r\nA 0422 UTC METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...IT IS\r\nUNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE IS AT THE SURFACE.  THERE ARE\r\nNO INDICATIONS IN THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT THAT AN EYE\r\nCURRENTLY EXISTS.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE 75 KT AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT.  THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nCOMMENCES.  FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD...DUE TO COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A ROCK STEADY 285/12 KT.  FRANK\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN\r\nNORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST COAST OF UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE\r\nOF THE CONTINUED RATHER LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 3...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 17.5N 108.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 17.9N 110.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z 18.3N 111.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/0600Z 19.7N 113.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/0600Z 21.0N 114.3W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/0600Z 22.0N 114.3W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/0600Z 23.0N 114.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":20,"Date":"2010-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nA 0907 UTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF AN EYE ON BOTH THE\r\n37 AND 85 GHZ CHANNELS...THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nOBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE IN THE 70-75 KT\r\nRANGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...NEAR THE LOWER END OF\r\nTHE ESTIMATES...DUE TO THE ELONGATED CLOUD PATTERN. THE HURRICANE\r\nREGIONAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT OR\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO\r\nAN INCREASE IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO CROSS\r\nTHE 26 DEGREE C SST ISOTHERM IN 36-48 HOURS AND A MORE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE\r\nTO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLGEM INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/10...A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THEREAFTER...A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES NEAR THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHOURS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS\r\nOTHERWISE SIMILAR.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/1500Z 17.4N 109.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0000Z 17.8N 110.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1200Z 18.2N 112.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0000Z 18.9N 113.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1200Z 19.6N 113.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     31/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":21,"Date":"2010-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TODAY. AN EYE HAS\r\nOCCASIONALLY BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS\r\nEARLIER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED\r\nON THESE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED A BIT TO 80 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS RESUMED A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...290/9...AND\r\nNOW LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nNORTH IS FORECAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH STRENGTHENS NEAR THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST. THE NHC\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nAND POSITION...AND THEN A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND IN\r\nFACT...MOST HAVE A GRADUAL WEAKENING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. THIS SEEMS\r\nPLAUSIBLE GIVEN 15-20 KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOWN BY THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. FRANK IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEGREES C IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS. THIS...COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME AND IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/2100Z 18.1N 110.3W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/0600Z 18.5N 111.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     27/1800Z 19.0N 112.9W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/0600Z 19.6N 113.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     28/1800Z 20.3N 114.3W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     29/1800Z 21.5N 114.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     30/1800Z 22.5N 114.5W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":22,"Date":"2010-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 26 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  THE EYE SEEN EARLIER IN VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY WAS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AS THE SUN\r\nSET AND A RECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE\r\nEYE HAS OPENED UP.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO \r\nCONTINUE AS FRANK MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND \r\nINTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/9.  THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE HURRICANE\r\nTURNING NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.  THERE IS AN\r\nEXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND AS\r\nSOME OF THE TRACK MODELS MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE THAT MOVES\r\nFARTHER NORTHWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST PREDICTS A SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION AFTER 72 HOURS AS FRANK IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AND BECOME\r\nA SHALLOW SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nAN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY\r\nON SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 38 KT AND A\r\nPRESSURE OF 997.5 MB.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0300Z 18.2N 111.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1200Z 18.6N 112.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0000Z 19.2N 113.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0000Z 20.7N 114.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0000Z 21.6N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0000Z 22.7N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0000Z 24.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":23,"Date":"2010-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE EYE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN\r\nAPPARENT IN MICROWAVE DATA FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO IS NO LONGER\r\nEVIDENT. IN ADDITION...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS SHRUNK AND\r\nERODED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 70 KT. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...A\r\nMORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/9...AND IS\r\nRIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY\r\nA MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nAN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY\r\nON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 44 KT AT 0300 UTC AND A\r\nPRESSURE OF 997.1 MB.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/0900Z 18.6N 112.1W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 19.1N 113.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 19.7N 114.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 22.3N 114.2W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 23.5N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 24.5N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":24,"Date":"2010-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL\r\nAREA OF PULSATING DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 3.5 AND 4.5 RESPECTIVELY.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE DVORAK RULES SPECIFY 77 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...THESE\r\nRULES HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO YIELD A HIGH BIAS FOR WEAKENING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES.  USING A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nVALUES...THE WIND SPEED IS SET TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WITH\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS A GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE\r\nRATHER CLOSELY.  FRANK IS PREDICTED TO DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...HOWEVER THIS EVENT COULD EASILY OCCUR\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF FRANK HAS NOT\r\nMOVED AS FAR TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS EARLIER ESTIMATED...AND THIS\r\nREQUIRES A SLIGHT EASTWARD RELOCATION FOR THIS PACKAGE.  BASED ON\r\nTHE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK...THE FORWARD MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nHAVE SLOWED TO NEAR 5 KT.  EVEN FURTHER DECELERATION IS LIKELY AS\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN\r\nDUE TO A DIGGING 500 MB TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA.  SINCE THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS... IT WILL\r\nPROBABLY NOT RESPOND MUCH TO THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nSLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 18.8N 112.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 19.3N 112.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 20.0N 113.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 20.8N 114.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 21.2N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":25,"Date":"2010-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n\r\nFRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...WITH RATHER DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY AS FRANK MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES\r\nTO BE IMPACTED BY EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nNOW SHOWS THE SYSTEM BEING REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS. \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL\r\nPREDICTION.  GIVEN THE CURRENT RATE OF WEAKENING...HOWEVER...FRANK\r\nCOULD DEGENERATE BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS EVEN SOONER THAN\r\nINDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS MOSTLY EXPOSED AND IS NOW EASY TO FIND ON VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 320/5.  THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DIGS INTO CALIFORNIA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS\r\nPACKAGE TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN 3-4 DAYS...\r\nFRANK WILL PROBABLY BE SO WEAK THAT IT WILL BE RESPONDING MAINLY TO\r\nSHALLOW-LAYER STEERING.  BY THAT TIME FRAME...THE NHC FORECAST\r\nMERELY SHOWS A VERY SLOW...OR NO...MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 19.3N 112.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 19.9N 112.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 20.7N 113.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 21.5N 113.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 22.2N 112.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":26,"Date":"2010-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010\r\n \r\nONLY A SMALL SPOT OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF FRANK...OTHERWISE THE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED.  SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW.  THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS.\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS PROBABLE DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nAND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND NOW SHOWS FRANK\r\nDEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6.  A GENTLE TURN TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF FRANK.  MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD ON THIS RUN...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.\r\nDISSIPATION OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT FOUR\r\nDAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 19.8N 112.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N 112.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 112.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 21.6N 112.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 21.9N 112.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 22.0N 111.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":27,"Date":"2010-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW ONLY A TIGHT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  SINCE THE CYCLONE LACKS CONVECTION...\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS CAN NOT BE MEASURED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST AS FRANK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS FRANK DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24\r\nHOURS...BUT IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP THAT COULD OCCUR\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/4...A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  FRANK...OR ITS REMNANTS...ARE EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 20.3N 112.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.8N 112.4W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 21.3N 112.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 21.6N 112.1W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 21.8N 111.8W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":28,"Date":"2010-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP092010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2010\r\n \r\nFRANK HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND WHAT\r\nREMAINS IS A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  BASED ON THE\r\nLACK OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...FRANK NO LONGER QUALIFIES\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION STILL\r\nAPPEARS VIGOROUS...AND THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ONLY\r\nLOWERED TO 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/6...TO THE EAST AND A BIT FASTER\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY.  A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD STEER\r\nTHE SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OF FRANK NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST\r\nWITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 20.8N 112.3W    30 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.3N 112.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 21.9N 111.7W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED A\r\nFEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAS\r\nACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE ON THE CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS...VALIDATING SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES WHICH INDICATE MODERATELY\r\nEASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A 0458 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS INDICATED A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALTHOUGH\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 2.5/35 KT AT 0600\r\nUTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET MORE CONSERVATIVELY AT 30\r\nKT...CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND ITS\r\nPROJECTED PATH OVER COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE\r\nWITH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS...NONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7...ALTHOUGH WITH A SKETCHY\r\nHISTORY OF THE CENTER LOCATION DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS\r\nESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION\r\nTURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER\r\nANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST PRIOR TO\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 19.7N 109.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 110.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 112.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 21.1N 115.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING TO SHOW VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH SOME\r\nINDICATION OF INCREASED BANDING ORGANIZATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5...OR 35 KT...AND 3.0...OR 45\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  ADDITIONALLY...TWO AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nUSING THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE SUGGESTED WINDS JUST BELOW AND JUST ABOVE\r\n35 KT.  WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING...A LOW-LEVEL\r\nSWIRL IS SEEN EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  WHILE WE DO NOT BELIEVE\r\nTHAT THIS IS THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT DOES\r\nINDICATE THAT INTENSITY IS NOT AS HIGH AS WHAT THE DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nSUGGEST.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7\r\nKT...THOUGH THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE DO NOT KNOW EXACTLY\r\nWHERE THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY IS.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  BY 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE SHOULD BE\r\nWEAKENED BY A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO ITS NORTH.  THE BREAK\r\nIN THE RIDGE IS DEPICTED BY THE BAM DEEP MODEL AS RECURVING THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.  HOWEVER...NONE OF THE PRIMARY MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREE.  INSTEAD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ADVECT WESTWARD IN\r\nTHE TRADEWINDS AS IT SLOWLY DECAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE MAY NOT INTENSIFY AT ALL.  SSTS UNDER THE PATH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE QUICKLY COOL TO BELOW 26C IN ABOUT A DAY...WHILE MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...THOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nDO BRIEFLY CALL FOR THE DEPRESSION TO INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD ALLOW\r\nTHIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.0N 110.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.4N 111.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 20.6N 113.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 21.0N 117.2W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 20.8N 121.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STRUGGLING WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND\r\nMARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS TODAY. THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nAPPARENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION. A\r\n1726Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT VECTORS IN\r\nTHE DEPRESSION. IN ADDITION... A 1420Z AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM CONTAINED 27 KT MAXIMUM WINDS FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.\r\nTHUS...THE INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nDECAY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SSTS...\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...AND MODERATELY STRONG EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36\r\nHOURS...BUT IF THE CONVECTION GOES POOF THIS EVENING...THE SYSTEM\r\nMAY NOT REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH LONGER.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD AROUND 8 TO 10 KT IN THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nFOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 20.2N 110.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 112.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 20.7N 114.5W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 20.8N 116.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 20.8N 119.0W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPOSED NEARLY 100 N MI TO\r\nTHE EAST OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND DVORAK FINAL-T\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED TO T1.0 AND T1.5...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY...WHEN THE\r\nCONVECTION WAS CLOSER TO THE CENTER...ONLY SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF\r\n25-30 KT WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT. \r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND CONTINUES TO CONTEND WITH 20 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS TAKEN A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/5. \r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...IT SHOULD\r\nBE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE TRACKS OF BAMS AND BAMM...BUT A LITTLE BIT\r\nSLOWER AS INDICATED BY THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE RECENT\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THIS TRACK IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER NORTH\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE CONVECTION DIES OUT...THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET\r\n...ECMWF...AND GFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 20.7N 110.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.4N 113.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N 115.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP102010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION.  NIGHTTIME\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE\r\nMORE THAN TWO DEGREES REMOVED FROM THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. WITH\r\nTHE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...A STABLE AIR\r\nMASS...AND COOLER WATERS...A GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 305/7...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  NOW\r\nA SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL FLOW RESULTING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 21.5N 111.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 22.1N 112.6W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 22.6N 114.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-03 23:00:00","Key":"EP112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112010\r\n400 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nAN AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1920 UTC INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER THAT IS CLOSELY SURROUNDED BY SEVERAL CURVED\r\nBANDS OF CONVECTION.  ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E.  THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMONSOON TROUGH LOCATED SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS A SLOW 315/2 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nLIKELY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF OAXACA IN MEXICO WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE DEPRESSION IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE\r\nOVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...IT\r\nWOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION FOR THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT REACHES LAND.  THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY\r\nOF 35-40 KT BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS THINKING.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING\r\nONSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PART OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH A WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE\r\nTHE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY THAT NORMALLY WOULD\r\nHAVE BEEN ISSUED AT 0000 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2300Z 15.1N  94.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 15.5N  94.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 16.8N  95.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112010\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT A CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED AND NOW WRAPS FROM THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL ALSO SHOWS THIS\r\nSTRUCTURE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC WERE T2.0/30 KT AND\r\nT1.5/25 KT...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nA MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CONTRIBUTING TO\r\nWEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/5.\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF THE CENTER COULD BE DICTATED BY LOCAL\r\nTOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nTHE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE COAST OR ONSHORE WITHIN 12 HOURS.  AN\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...WHICH ALSO BRINGS THE\r\nCYCLONE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT THEN SHOWS IT\r\nPARALLELING THE SHORE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE FORMER SCENARIO AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING OVER\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nWITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nIMAGERY...THE DEPRESSION COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE\r\nDEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MOVES\r\nINLAND...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 15.5N  95.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 16.0N  95.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 16.8N  96.1W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112010\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010\r\n \r\nMEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVED INLAND EAST OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO BETWEEN\r\n0600-0700 UTC. PRIOR TO MOVING INLAND...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CURVED\r\nBAND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...\r\nMEXICAN RADAR DATA INDICATED AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND A 0403 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A\r\nPARTIAL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. HOWEVER...\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE AT 1.5/25 KT AND 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB... RESPECTIVELY...AT 0600 UTC AND THE 3-HOURLY AVERAGED ADT\r\nWAS 2.4/34 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT\r\n30 KT NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED INLAND.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION...320/7...TO THE RIGHT\r\nAND SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION BEING STEERED NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVING FARTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATING OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MEXICO\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 16.4N  95.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.2N  95.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP112010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112010\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 04 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR AND SURFACE DATA...\r\nINDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS WEAKENED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND\r\nEASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nSEVERAL LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE FORMING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS WOULD COME FROM THE\r\nREMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E OR A BRAND NEW\r\nDEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 17.0N  95.8W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 17.8N  96.4W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":1,"Date":"2010-09-21 12:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n500 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED\r\nSOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND IT IS WELL ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO BE CLASSIFIED AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  SINCE AN ASCAT PASS FROM\r\nYESTERDAY...AND SHIP DFZA2 FROM 0300 UTC...INDICATED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM WAS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING NAMED TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE WITH 35-KT WINDS. \r\nGEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA LATER\r\nTODAY AND SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION ON WEDNESDAY.  GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE OVER THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.\r\n\r\nGEORGETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS MEXICO UNTIL\r\nIT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS JUST TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS NEAR THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 23.1N 110.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 25.4N 111.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 28.1N 112.3W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":2,"Date":"2010-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nGEORGETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IS LOCATED\r\nMAINLY OVER THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR BETWEEN 15-20 KT.  WITHOUT ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS SINCE THE\r\nSPECIAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 1200 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 35 KT.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nABATE...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE\r\nGEORGETTE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA BY TONIGHT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS\r\nAND DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 335/8.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK REASONING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nGEORGETTE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT\r\nDISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN OVER THE WATERS OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AFTER 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 22.5N 109.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 23.9N 110.7W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 26.4N 111.7W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 29.3N 112.7W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":3,"Date":"2010-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SUGGEST THAT IT HAS MADE LANDFALL\r\nNEAR OR JUST EAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nARE 2.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 35 KT.  GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT\r\nMOVES NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  SINCE\r\nGEORGETTE IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH LEFT\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION WHEN IT REACHES THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER\r\nTONIGHT.  PRIMARILY FOR THIS REASON...RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT\r\nANTICIPATED BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/8.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING.  GEORGETTE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE MODEL\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  MOISTURE\r\nFROM GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW \r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 23.3N 109.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 25.1N 110.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 27.7N 111.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 30.3N 112.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":4,"Date":"2010-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...SO THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT MAY BE GENEROUS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...THE\r\nSMALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND...SO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY. \r\nINDEED...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE MAKES GEORGETTE A\r\nTROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE OUR SKILL\r\nIN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE\r\nLIMITED...IT IS PRUDENT TO HAVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST.  GEORGETTE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN\r\nTHIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 340/11.  ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nEASTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  GEORGETTE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nAFTERWARDS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CARRY\r\nGEORGETTES REMNANTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 24.6N 110.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 26.5N 111.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 29.1N 111.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 31.7N 111.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":5,"Date":"2010-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF GEORGETTE HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  A\r\nNEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THERE IS SOME WEAK BANDING SEEN\r\nIN DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT CIUDAD OBREGON.  AN ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS AT 0506 UTC SHOWED A FEW 30 KT VECTORS...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/12.  GEORGETTE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN GEORGETTE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING\r\nTHROUGH NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST GEORGETTE TO REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM\r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DO NOT.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE AND\r\nCALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.  THAT BEING\r\nSAID...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST AND A DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THUS...THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF THE\r\nMEXICAN MAINLAND.  GEORGETTE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND\r\nDISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR.  FINAL DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR\r\nEARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 25.8N 110.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 27.8N 111.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 30.4N 111.3W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 33.1N 111.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":6,"Date":"2010-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2010\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO REPORTS\r\nOF STRONG SURFACE WINDS ON THE COAST OF BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL INTERACT WITH LAND...AND\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES\r\nAT 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER\r\nWESTERN MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE DEPRESSION INLAND OVER MEXICO\r\nTONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...AND SOME AREAS\r\nCOULD EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 26.8N 111.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 28.6N 111.8W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 31.0N 112.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":7,"Date":"2010-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 22 2010\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR FROM THE MEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE INDICATE\r\nTHAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS MOVED INLAND OVER THE STATE OF\r\nSONORA. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE CONVECTION AND IS STILL VERY NEAR THE COAST WHERE WINDS ARE\r\nGUSTING TO 30 KNOTS.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND\r\nONCE THE CIRCULATION MOVES COMPLETELY INLAND...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED. GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON\r\nTHURSDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AND\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN\r\nABOUT A DAY.  THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nREMAINS MEANDERING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND DISSIPATES THERE\r\nIF THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR REMOVES ALL THE CONVECTION SOONER THAN\r\nANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY DISCONTINUE THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH AS SOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 28.0N 111.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 30.5N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 33.0N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Georgette","Adv":8,"Date":"2010-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP122010","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122010\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 22 2010\r\n\r\nSURFACE DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE MADE\r\nLANDFALL JUST WEST OF GUAYMAS AROUND 2300 UTC.  NEAR THE TIME OF\r\nLANDFALL...AN OBSERVING SITE IN GUAYMAS REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND\r\nOF 24 KT WITH A WIND GUST TO 34 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002\r\nMB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS QUICKLY WEAKENED AND RACED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  AS A\r\nRESULT...GEORGETTE HAS DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL\r\nBE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nLATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 28.7N 110.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 30.7N 110.9W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-06-29 00:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nCOVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. \r\nDATA T-NUMBERS FROM SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 2245 UTC FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB WERE 2.5 AND 2.0...RESPECTIVELY.  THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY FOUND AN\r\nAREA OF 30 TO 35 KT SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE \r\nCENTER.  BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT\r\nSATELLITE TRENDS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM...\r\nTHE FIRST OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.        \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWEAKNESS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LIFT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OVER THE \r\nCENTRAL UNTIED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nTRACK OF ARLENE TO BEND TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE\r\nSHEARING AFFECTS OF THE RETREATING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE LESSENING\r\nAND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nPERHAPS THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION\r\nCOULD BE THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0000Z 21.2N  93.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 21.7N  94.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 22.0N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.0N  96.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 22.0N  97.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  02/1800Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011\r\n \r\nWHILE THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF\r\nARLENE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO FURTHER INCREASE IN ITS ORGANIZATION.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.  \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE\r\nTO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE...AND UW CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE\r\nABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING ARLENE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nAND SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLOWER REDUCTION OF THE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR COULD LIMIT ITS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nARLENE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/6. THE\r\nSTORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AS A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. \r\nSEVERAL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT ARLENE COULD TURN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO DUE TO THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SUGGESTS THIS\r\nPOSSIBILITY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS COULD BE FELT OVER A\r\nLARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 21.4N  94.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 21.8N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 22.0N  96.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 21.9N  97.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 21.7N  98.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 21.3N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-06-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n400 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY NEAR AND TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF ARLENE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0502 UTC DID NOT SHOW MUCH IN\r\nTHE WAY OF ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER...WITH A LACK OF PROMINENT\r\nBANDING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF\r\nABOUT 35 KT...SO THAT WILL REMAIN THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE\r\nARLENE LATER THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON THE\r\nSTRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING...AND\r\nGIVEN AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT SEEMS LIKE IT IS\r\nONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE ARLENE STRENGTHENS. THE BULK OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL...THOUGH THE HWRF HAS THE SYSTEM BRIEFLY AS A\r\nHURRICANE.  GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF ARLENE AND THE LACK OF ANY\r\nINNER CORE FEATURES...HURRICANE STRENGTH APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND THE\r\nNHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS NOT PROVIDED A DEFINITIVE CENTER\r\nPOSITION...HOWEVER GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT ARLENE IS\r\nSTILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...OR EVEN A\r\nBIT FASTER THAN THAT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A WESTWARD TURN IS\r\nEXPECTED LATER TODAY AS ARLENE IS STEERED AROUND A STRONG RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE CYCLONE COULD EVEN MOVE\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST TOMORROW DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE\r\nRIDGE...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW GLOBAL MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING LANDFALL IN A\r\nLITTLE OVER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT\r\nOVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 21.8N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 22.1N  95.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 22.1N  97.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 22.0N  98.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 21.8N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-06-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n1000 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF CONVECTIVE BANDING.\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WOULD ARGUE AGAINST\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH\r\nPROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND NOW SHOWS ARLENE APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT\r\nLANDFALL.  BASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH\r\nHAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ARLENE WAS LOCATED\r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...WHICH REQUIRES SOME\r\nSOUTHWARD RELOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nFIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW WEST OR 270/7.  A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ARLENE SHOULD INDUCE\r\nA WESTWARD OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EVEN MORE OF A TURN TO\r\nTHE LEFT AS THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS MORE OR LESS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT\r\nOVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 21.2N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 21.2N  96.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 21.2N  97.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 21.0N  98.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 20.8N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-06-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n400 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN SINCE THIS MORNING.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS\r\nOCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH  \r\nRECENTLY THERE HAVE BEEN INDICATIONS OF CONVECTIVE BANDS BEGINNING\r\nTO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH ANOTHER\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED TO PENETRATE THE CENTER VERY\r\nSOON.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX CONTINUES TO SHOW A\r\nSIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF A 25 TO 30 KT INCREASE OVER 24\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER INTERACTION WITH LAND WOULD HALT STRENGTHENING\r\nSOONER THAN THAT TIME FRAME.  THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE\r\nMITIGATES THE INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  IT IS POSSIBLE FOR ARLENE TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nOF 55-65 KT BETWEEN THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL...AND\r\nTHUS THE SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE ABOVE-MENTIONED SOUTHERN CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY MAY HAVE PARTIALLY\r\nEXPLAINED THE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION NOTED IN THE AIRCRAFT\r\nFIXES FROM EARLIER TODAY.  A LONGER-TERM...AND LIKELY MORE\r\nREPRESENTATIVE...MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 270/6.  A STRONG\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nARLENE SHOULD CAUSE A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nWITH A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER.  THE LATTER HAS OFTEN\r\nBEEN NOTED AS TROPICAL CYCLONES INTERACT WITH THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO AS\r\nWELL.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION OF ARLENE...ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE FELT\r\nOVER A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 21.1N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 21.1N  96.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 21.0N  98.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 20.6N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 20.0N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-06-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 64 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH ARLENE WHICH EQUATES TO\r\nABOUT 50 KT SURFACE WINDS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 996 MB.\r\nSEVERAL SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS CLOSE TO 50 KT WERE ALSO RECORDED ON\r\nTHAT PASS AND THE SUBSEQUENT ONE AROUND 2300 UTC.  EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES REVEALED A PROMINENT BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BUT A LACK OF ANY DISTINGUISHING CENTRAL FEATURES.  THE\r\nLATTER MATCHES WHAT THE PLANE ALSO FOUND...A LARGE REGION OF LIGHT\r\nAND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.  ON THE BASIS OF THE PLANE\r\nREPORTS AND 0000 UTC TAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS OF\r\n3.5/3.0...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nWINDS ALOFT ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE AND THE WATERS UNDERNEATH THE\r\nCYCLONE ARE VERY WARM...THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE DOES NOT SEEM\r\nSUITABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  BESIDES...THE WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS DECREASING NOW THAT LANDFALL SEEMS\r\nIMMINENT. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATES ARLENE REACHING A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IMMEDIATELY BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE SEQUENCE OF AIRCRAFT FIXES FROM THE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON\r\nFLIGHTS YIELDED LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...BUT RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT ARLENE MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE SLIGHTLY FASTER. A\r\nSTRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH\r\nAND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE A GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nTRACK TO NEAR LANDFALL.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AFTER THAT AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE CHANGES AND AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO BUT A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO EARLIER\r\nDECELERATION.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nMODIFIED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 21.5N  96.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 21.5N  97.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 21.3N  98.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 20.7N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 20.5N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-06-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE\r\nIS MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR CABO ROJO. WHILE\r\nASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT AROUND 0312\r\nUTC...BANDING HAS INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE THAT TIME IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE BOTH 55 KT AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO THAT\r\nVALUE. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER IN\r\nTHE STRONG BANDING FEATURES. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. A RAPID DECAY IS LIKELY LATER\r\nTODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nARLENE ACCELERATED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS\r\nMOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AND DECOUPLE FROM THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE FORMER IS BLOCKED BY THE SIERRA MADRE\r\nORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ARLENE DISSIPATED BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND\r\nDATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 21.5N  97.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 21.4N  98.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 21.0N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n1000 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED STATION AT\r\nISLA LOBOS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE HAS MADE LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO.  THE STATION REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 993 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED JUST TO THE NORTH...AND\r\nBASED ON THIS AND A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.  SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE VORTEX\r\nIS TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT...AS THE APPARENT CENTER IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY IS SOUTH OF THE CENTER LOCATION INDICATED BY THE\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nARLENE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FITS AND STARTS...WITH AN OVERALL MOTION\r\nOF 270/6.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE U. S.\r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO IN 24-36 HR.\r\n \r\nARLENE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO BY 36 HR.  SEVERAL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE\r\nPACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR\r\nA NEW SYSTEM IS SPECULATIVE AT THIS TIME.  EITHER WAY...SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 21.6N  97.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 21.4N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 21.2N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011\r\n\r\nSSM/IS DATA BACK FROM THE TIME OF LANDFALL SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE\r\nFEATURE ABOUT 35 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  THIS CONFIRMS THAT ARLENE HAD ISSUES WITH ITS VERTICAL\r\nALIGNMENT AS WELL AS HAVING AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. \r\nSINCE LANDFALL...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED\r\nIN BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nMEXICO...AND THE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON ASCAT DATA BACK AT\r\n15Z AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT TROPICAL-STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL\r\nPRESENT OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 255/6.  ARLENE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nARLENE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO\r\nIN 24-36 HR...AND IT MAY NOT LAST THAT LONG.  SEVERAL GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING ALONG THE PACIFIC\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO IN 24-48 HR...WHICH MOVES WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  WHETHER THIS IS THE REMAINS OF ARLENE OR A NEW\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS SPECULATIVE.  EITHER WAY... SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO COLD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED PATH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 21.3N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 21.1N  99.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 20.6N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Arlene","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011\r\n1000 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ARLENE HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH AND\r\nRUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.  THEREFORE...ARLENE\r\nIS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARLENE WILL LIKELY\r\nCONTINUE OVER MUCH OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...\r\nESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR AREAS OF HIGH TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 20.9N  99.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nDESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH WINDS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WERE MEASURED BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD\r\nTHE PLANE...THESE OBSERVATIONS WERE FLAGGED AS QUESTIONABLE.  PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 44 KT WHICH WOULD\r\nNORMALLY INDICATE A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS RELATIVELY WEAK...AND IN THIS\r\nCASE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE\r\nAS MUCH AS TYPICALLY OCCURS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30\r\nKT.  THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nWITH SOME DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  NONE OF THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS SHOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTHWARD DRIFT.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY\r\nTO REMAIN QUITE WEAK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS THE SYSTEM IS\r\nSITUATED IN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND THIS...ALONG WITH A\r\nWEAK TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...SHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nRATHER CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 27.5N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 27.4N  78.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 28.2N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 29.0N  77.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 30.4N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 32.0N  73.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 34.0N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 36.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MADE TWO ADDITIONAL PASSES\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE\r\n2100 UTC NHC ADVISORY.  DURING THOSE PASSES...PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 43-45 KT WERE RECORDED ALONG WITH A FEW BELIEVABLE SFMR\r\nSURFACE WINDS JUST ABOVE TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  BASED ON THESE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF NEW CONVECTION JUST NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER AROUND 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM AT THAT TIME.  MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW\r\nTHAT MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND SHOWS PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING\r\nBETWEEN 24-36 HOURS.  WEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND 36 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY\r\nWINDS OVER THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nBRET HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION YIELDS 145/2.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AS IT\r\nREMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  IN 24-36 HOURS...THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BRET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WHICH\r\nSHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  AS BRET GAINS LATITUDE IN\r\n2-3 DAYS...IT SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN AREA\r\nOF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW.  THE LATEST HWRF AND GFDL MODEL\r\nFORECASTS SHOW A MORE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A TRACK MUCH\r\nCLOSER TO THE UNITED STATES THAN THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nMODELS.  THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. \r\nFOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 27.5N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 27.7N  77.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 28.5N  77.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 29.7N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 30.7N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 32.5N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 34.5N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 36.5N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BRET\r\nOVERNIGHT FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN\r\n...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE FALLING TO 1001 MB.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT BASED ON A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND OF 54 KT AND SOME BELIEVABLE 45 TO 50 KT SFMR WINDS OUTSIDE \r\nAREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SHALLOW WATERS NEAR THE ABACOS ISLANDS. \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND IN A PROMINENT BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER DRY AIR IS STILL IMPINGING ON THE\r\nWESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.  ALSO...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS\r\nSITUATED JUST NORTHWEST OF BRET APPEARS TO BE HINDERING OUTFLOW IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE AIRCRAFT NOTED A 3 TO 5 NM\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TILT BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 850-MB CENTERS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nSUGGESTS THAT BRET HAS A PERIOD OF 24 TO 36 HOURS TO STEADILY\r\nSTRENGTHEN BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND THE CYCLONE\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED UPWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nAND A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nBRET JOGGED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST\r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...\r\nPOSSIBLY COMPLETING A CYCLONIC LOOP.  THE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES\r\nYIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 090/03 KT.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nINSISTS THAT BRET WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY\r\nTONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL DEEPEN ENOUGH TO CAPTURE BRET AND ACCELERATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE INTO THE WESTERLIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  GIVEN\r\nTHE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE OVERNIGHT AND A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS MODEL BLEND\r\nAND IS LEFT OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\nFURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THIS DIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD IF THIS TREND IN THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 27.2N  77.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 27.6N  77.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 28.6N  77.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 29.7N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 30.7N  75.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 32.5N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 35.0N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 38.0N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY IN\r\nORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.  THE MAIN BANDING FEATURES ARE WELL\r\nREMOVED FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND A\r\nSOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING CDO TYPE FEATURE IS EVIDENT.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE SUPPRESSED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nIS HELD AT 45 KT.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE BRET THIS AFTERNOON.  THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING TODAY\r\nAND TONIGHT...WITH DRY AIR AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AS\r\nMITIGATING FACTORS.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...BUT AFTERWARDS INCREASING SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE\r\nA WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST FIXES...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 030/4.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  A\r\nBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BRET ALONG WITH A\r\nBROAD TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...A TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nACCELERATION IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 27.7N  77.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 28.2N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 29.2N  76.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 30.2N  75.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 31.4N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 33.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 36.0N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 38.5N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED A RAGGED EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE...SUGGESTING THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION HAD TAKEN PLACE. \r\nTHIS WAS CONFIRMED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT.  USING A BLEND OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL...SFMR...AND\r\nDROPSONDE WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n55 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO BRET HAS A NARROW WINDOW\r\nOF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE BEFORE REACHING A LESS\r\nCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND IT COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY\r\nEARLY TOMORROW OR SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...IVCN.\r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF AROUND 030/6.\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.  BRET SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD ACCELERATE SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES\r\nMORE EMBEDDED WITHIN HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN...AND SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF...THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS RATHER CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST ECMWF TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 28.3N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 29.2N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 30.4N  75.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 31.5N  74.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 33.0N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 35.5N  67.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 39.0N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 43.0N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION FROM EARLIER THIS\r\nAFTERNOON MADE ONE MORE PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF BRET AFTER THE\r\nRELEASE OF THE 2100 UTC ADVISORY AND ESSENTIALLY FOUND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE WINDS.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE INCREASED BY 1\r\nMB ON EACH SUCCESSIVE PASS OF THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE INTENSITY OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 50\r\nKT.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL GIVES BRET THE OPPORTUNITY\r\nFOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THIS POSSIBILITY SHOULD THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION RE-DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.  MORE CERTAIN WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCOMMENCE BEYOND 24 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMES INCREASINGLY\r\nHOSTILE...AND BRET IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nBRET STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING AT AN AVERAGE MOTION OF 030/6.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER ON THIS MOTION FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  THE\r\nECMWF IS THE FASTEST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS NOW 12 HOURS OLD\r\nAND...ALONG WITH OFCI...FELL VERY NEAR THE EDGE OF THE GPCE CIRCLE\r\nFAR FROM THE OTHER RELIABLE MODELS AT 72 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS THEREFORE ON TRACK WITH BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 28.7N  76.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 29.5N  76.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 30.6N  75.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 31.7N  73.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 33.1N  71.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 36.0N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 39.0N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT DISAPPEARED NEAR THE CENTER OF BRET IN\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO\r\nTHE CYCLONE CORE AS SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DEWPOINT DATA\r\nFROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON A 850-MB FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 55 KT AND A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 43 KT.  THE\r\nDRIER ENVIRONMENT AND A FORECAST OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS BRET SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM THIS POINT FORWARD.  THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH 12\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 96\r\nHOURS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM.  HOWEVER...IF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BRET COULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE MORE\r\nQUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 025 DEGREES AT AROUND 6 KT...A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  OVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS BRET WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THROUGH 48 HOURS...THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT\r\nFOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  AT 72 HOURS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL\r\nADJUSTMENT WAS MADE...TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC FORECAST...TRENDING TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 29.3N  76.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 30.0N  75.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 30.9N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 32.1N  73.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 33.6N  71.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 36.5N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER MEAGER IN ASSOCIATION WITH BRET THIS\r\nMORNING.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENTLY THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nON THE WANE.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF THE STORM IS EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THIS IS PROBABLY A\r\nGENEROUS ESTIMATE.  BRET IS BEING IMPACTED BY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND IS ENTRAINING RATHER DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR.  THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN HOSTILE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 030/7.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BRET SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BEGIN TO\r\nINTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER ON.  THE FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...ASSUMING BRET SURVIVES THAT LONG. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 29.9N  75.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 30.6N  75.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 31.6N  73.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 32.9N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 34.3N  70.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 37.5N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n \r\nBRET HAS A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE PICTURES...WITH AN\r\nEXPOSED LOW-CLOUD CENTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF A SMALL PATCH OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS.  IN SPITE OF THIS...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE EARLIER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY\r\nWAS NOT A GENEROUS ONE AND THE STORM IS MAINTAINING STRENGTH...FOR\r\nNOW.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 52 KT AND EVEN HIGHER SURFACE\r\nWINDS WERE SHOWN BY THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ON BOARD THE AIRCRAFT.\r\nHOWEVER THE SFMR WINDS APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT INFLATED BY AN\r\nACCOMPANYING SPIKE OF HEAVY RAIN.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nMAINTAINED AT 45 KT.  STRONG NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nALONG WITH DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON\r\nBRET AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION AFTER 3\r\nDAYS.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 035/7.  BRET IS MOVING AROUND THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND SHOULD BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nCONTINUED GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH SOME ACCELERATION\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 30.4N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 31.1N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 32.4N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 33.7N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 35.1N  69.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 38.5N  65.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n \r\nBRET HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nMISSION.  THE CYCLONE STILL CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nAND PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT SINCE THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  IN\r\nFACT...IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASED IN\r\nINTENSITY AROUND 0000 UTC...AND THE INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS\r\nCORROBORATED BY A TAFB DATA-T ESTIMATE OF T3.0 USING THE SHEAR\r\nPATTERN.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE\r\nSTORM IN A FEW HOURS TO ASSESS IF THERE HAVE BEEN ANY CHANGES. \r\nSTRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING BRET...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS OPEN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO A TROUGH\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nBRET APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN BUT SHOULD RESUME A\r\nMOTION OF 040 DEGREES AT 7 KT SHORTLY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LATITUDE\r\nFLOW.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 30.6N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 31.5N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 32.8N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 34.2N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 35.8N  68.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH BRET IS ONLY PRODUCING A SMALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTHIS MORNING...DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS NOT WEAKENED YET.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\n...SFMR WINDS...AND DROPSONDE DATA ALL SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 45 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL FORECAST AS THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE WITH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR NEAR 30 KT AND RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER\r\nAND CALLS FOR BRET TO DISSIPATE BY DAY 3...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT BRET HAS TURNED A BIT TO\r\nTHE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 050/06.  A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON\r\nAIRCRAFT AND ALTIMETER DATA...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 31.1N  74.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 31.9N  73.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 33.2N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 34.6N  70.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 36.2N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS THAT OF A SHEARED\r\nCYCLONE...CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER OF BRET THIS MORNING.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN SUGGEST ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS A LITTLE LESS THEN EARLIER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND DATA\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS AIRCRAFT MISSION.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE BRET THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/8.  BRET IS EMBEDDED IN LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nDISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST IT TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 12 HR.  IN ADDITION...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DRY AND\r\nSUBSIDENCE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD\r\nBRET.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD WEAKEN THE STORM AND LEAD TO ITS\r\nDISSIPATION IN 48-72 HR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 31.8N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 32.5N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 33.8N  71.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 35.4N  69.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 37.0N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2011\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT BRET HAS\r\nWEAKENED A LITTLE.  THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45\r\nKT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1005\r\nMB ON BOTH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS AND DATA FROM\r\nA 1521 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40\r\nKT.  WHILE THE SYSTEM IS STILL GENERATING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AS\r\nDRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR ADVECTS INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  BRET IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48\r\nHR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER JOGGED TO THE\r\nEAST THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION REMAINS\r\nGENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...050/7.  BRET REMAINS EMBEDDED IN\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nBASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 31.9N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 32.7N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 34.3N  70.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 35.9N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 37.8N  64.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nFOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BRET HAS LOST MUCH OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF ITS EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND NOW ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN.  OBJECTIVE 3-HOUR\r\nADT NUMBERS ARE CURRENTLY T2.6...AND THE RAW NUMBERS ARE MUCH\r\nLOWER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR OVER BRET IS BRUTAL.  THE SHIPS/LGEM DIAGNOSTICS\r\nSHOW ABOUT 30-35 KT OF SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND THESE\r\nVALUES COULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  WITH\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVING\r\nSOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE CYCLONE...BRET WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT DAY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY MIRRORS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...AND BRET COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  DISSIPATION IS NOW EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAFTER JOGGING TO THE EAST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BRET IS NOW\r\nWOBBLING A BIT TO THE NORTH.  THE AVERAGE MOTION REMAINS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH A BIT OF AN ACCELERATION AT 045/8.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING ACCELERATION\r\nWITHIN FASTER MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WAS ADJUSTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTO BE CLOSE TO THE FASTER-MOVING GFS AND ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 32.8N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 33.9N  70.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 35.5N  68.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 37.2N  65.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nHAS ABATED SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE T2.5/35 KT. SHIP WPGK PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT\r\nAROUND 0300Z...BEFORE CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED...AND REPORTED A\r\nWIND SPEED OF 32 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\nBRET IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. BRET IS GRADUALLY BEING\r\nCAUGHT UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS\r\nIS BEING IMPEDED BY NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nNORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...ONLY SLOW\r\nFORWARD PROGRESS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nBASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS BRET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE 200 MB WIND FIELDS ACTUALLY SHOW\r\nTHE SHEAR DECREASING BY 24 HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...BRET IS BEING\r\nHELD ONTO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION A LITTLE LONGER THAN SOME OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING. HOWEVER...AFTER 36 HOURS THE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW\r\n26C...AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...BRET IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE\r\nCOMPLETELY OVER MUCH COLDER 20-22C SST WATER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 33.1N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 34.4N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 36.2N  67.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 37.8N  64.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n\r\nWHILE BRET CONTINUES TO GENERATE A STRONG CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SOUTH\r\nOF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY LOSING\r\nORGANIZATION AS IT REMAINS AFFECTED BY NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...\r\nTROPICAL-STORM WINDS COULD STILL BE OCCURRING IN AND NEAR THE\r\nCONVECTION BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT RECENTLY OBSERVED AT\r\nBUOY 41048.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY\r\nGENEROUS 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/8.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  BRET SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THAT TIME.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBRET IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...AND IT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THIS COMBINATION IS LIKELY\r\nTO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN EVEN THOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nFORECAST THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 33.8N  70.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 36.8N  66.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 38.6N  62.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF BRET REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PERSISTENT\r\nCLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1500 UTC SHOWED AN\r\nAREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS AND\r\nTHE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO\r\n35-40 KT...AND THIS IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE\r\nCYCLONE.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BRET WEAKENING TO A TROUGH\r\nIN 48 HR OR LESS...AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nSUIT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AT 060/9.  OTHER\r\nTHAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING.  BRET SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THAT TIME.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT\r\nA LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 34.2N  69.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 35.5N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 37.3N  63.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 39.0N  59.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bret","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM LOST ESSENTIALLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAGO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BRET HAS NOW WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR THE\r\nMAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING\r\nWATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF\r\nBRET...THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH\r\nSOONER THAN THAT.\r\n\r\nBRET HAS ACCELERATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/12...PERHAPS\r\nA LITTLE FASTER.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THE FLOW TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 35.6N  68.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 36.9N  65.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 38.4N  61.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 40.0N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bret","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nBRET REMAINS A MAVERICK TROPICAL CYCLONE BY REFUSING TO DISSIPATE\r\nDESPITE EXPERIENCING VERY HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS\r\nOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. PREVIOUSLY DEVOID OF ANY CONVECTION...SOME\r\nMODEST CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -45C HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. IN ADDITION...SHIP WDC6925 LOCATED ABOUT \r\n80 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A SOUTHWEST WIND OF 24 KT AT\r\n06Z. THIS INFORMATION...COMBINED WITH A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...IS JUSTIFICATION FOR MAINTAINING\r\nBRET AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBRET HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n055/18. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY\r\nAND TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nSITUATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRET MOVING OVER\r\nMUCH COLDER WATERS...WHICH WILL HASTEN ITS DEMISE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nJUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRET IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD AND PASS OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS WILL\r\nBRIEFLY REDUCE THE WIND SHEAR...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR ONE FINAL SHORT\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION TO OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER. FOR THAT REASON...\r\nBRET IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. AFTERWARD...HOWEVER...MUCH COOLER\r\nSSTS OF NEAR 22C BENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN DISSIPATION\r\nBY 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 36.7N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 38.0N  63.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 39.4N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 40.9N  54.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Bret","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT BRET IS NOT GENERATING\r\nENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nIN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS\r\nWELL-DEFINED AS THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. \r\nTHEREFORE...BRET HAS DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AND\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST UNTIL IT WEAKENS TO A TROUGH\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HR.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF BRET CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 37.7N  64.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 39.0N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n500 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED NORTH OF BERMUDA YESTERDAY HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION TO BE CONSIDERED A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE SYSTEM SUGGESTS SUBTROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION JUST\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGESTS TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...AND THUS THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM\r\nCINDY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A 35-KT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF\r\n41 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/22.  CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THE\r\nWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE QUICKLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...CINDY WILL PASS OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF 24-26C FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW\r\nSOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATER AND\r\nINCREASING BAROCLINICITY IN THE WESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  CINDY IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE\r\nCOMPLETELY BY 96 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 35.2N  53.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 37.1N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 39.9N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 42.4N  42.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 45.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 52.5N  25.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n1100 PM AST WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nCINDY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OR SATELLITE PRESENTATION OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...A TIMELY 0058 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS\r\nSEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT VECTORS IN A GENERALLY CONVECTION-FREE\r\nREGION SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45\r\nKT ON THIS ADVISORY.  CINDY IS CURRENTLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\n20-25 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A 2302 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nCINDY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SAME STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT\r\nWILL BE CAUSING TROPICAL STORM BRET TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/21.  THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND CINDY WILL\r\nCONTINUE ON A QUICK NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS\r\nLIFE.  THE GFDL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AND SHOWS A SHARP NORTHWARD\r\nTURN JUST AFTER 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE GFS.  THIS\r\nTRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CINDY REMAINS\r\nOVER WATER OF AT LEAST 24C.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER.  THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD OPEN UP BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PREDICTS DISSIPATION BY THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS LOWERED TO 1004 MB BASED ON DRIFTING BUOY\r\n44943...WHICH CROSSED THE PATH OF CINDY AND REPORTED A WELL-\r\nCALIBRATED PRESSURE OF 1007.3 A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 36.3N  51.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 38.5N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 41.3N  44.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 44.0N  39.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 46.8N  33.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TIME IN SECOND PARAGRAPH\r\n \r\nCINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.\r\nWHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT\r\nINCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER \r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY\r\nREMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH\r\nCOLDER WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD\r\nWATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 38.3N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 40.7N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 43.8N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 46.8N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 50.0N  27.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n1100 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CINDY HAS SEVERAL RAGGED CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS AROUND THE CENTER THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND REMAIN 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC OVER THE SYSTEM DURING\r\nTHE LAST 24 HR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/25.  CINDY IS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST. \r\nTHIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS\r\nWELL.\r\n\r\nCINDY IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM AND SHOULD\r\nSOON ENCOUNTER STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS\r\nAND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...CALLING FOR CINDY TO DISSIPATE BY THE 72 HR POINT.  ONE\r\nSLIGHT ADJUSTMENT IS TO DELAY THE COMPLETION OF EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BY 12 HR BASED ON THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 40.3N  47.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 42.7N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 45.9N  38.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 49.8N  32.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 52.0N  26.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n\r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT CINDY HAS BEEN\r\nTRYING TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  A CLEAR SPOT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS NEVER WRAPPED\r\nAROUND IT ENOUGH TO CALL IT AN EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND A RECENT CIRA\r\nAMSU ESTIMATE WAS 49 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24.  CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MODERATE\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND THE MAIN BAND OF THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\nTHIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND STEER CINDY GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nCINDY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO COLD SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN\r\nABOUT 24 HR AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 42.3N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 44.5N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 47.9N  36.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 51.6N  29.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 55.0N  22.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nCINDY HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A TIGHT INNER CORE OF SYMMETRIC DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THIS EVENING AS INDICATED BY THE GEOSTATIONARY AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE BEGINNING\r\nTO WARM. THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS ANALYZED\r\nBASED UPON THE TAFB DVORAK CI OF 3.0 AND A 22Z AMSU CIMSS ESTIMATE\r\nOF 39 KT. THE MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE AND THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL NOT UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION.  INSTEAD...IT APPEARS THAT CINDY WILL LOSE ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT A DAY OR SOONER DUE TO PASSING OVER QUITE\r\nCOLD SSTS AND THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH NOT SHOWING AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS NEW TO THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS QUICKLY CONTINUING OFF TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT\r\n23 KT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nTO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THAT ISSUED\r\nPREVIOUSLY.\r\n  \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON A\r\nCIRA AMSU SIZE ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 43.5N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 45.9N  39.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 49.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 53.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n500 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nCINDY HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A TIGHTLY CURVED BAND OF MODEST\r\nCONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER\r\nRAGGED IN APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND 49 KT FROM THE MOST RECENT CIRA-AMSU OVERPASS. \r\n\r\nCINDY IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 050/25. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST BY ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nFASTER AND TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nCINDY IS ALREADY OVER 20C SSTS...AND ONLY COLDER WATER LIES AHEAD OF\r\nIT. AS A RESULT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER...AND DISSIPATE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES BY 48\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP KABL AT 06Z.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 44.5N  39.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 46.7N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 50.0N  29.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 52.7N  21.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nCINDY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CLOUD PATTERN CHARACTERISTIC OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY LOSING ORGANIZATION\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COLD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND\r\n35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/23.  ALL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT CINDY SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT\r\n25-30 KT UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nCINDY IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WARM AIR TO THE EAST OF A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT CINDY WILL NOT MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND MAKE AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES THAT COOL TO LESS THAN 15C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED\r\nON JUST-RECEIVED ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 45.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 47.6N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 50.6N  25.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 53.2N  17.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n500 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n\r\nTHE COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC ARE NOW\r\nHAVING A NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON CINDY.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS\r\nWEAKENED...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  IN ADDITION...THE LOW CLOUDS\r\nIN THE CIRCULATION ARE BECOMING STRATIFORM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON DECREASING AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nAND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  CINDY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOUR...AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 24 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/25...AND A RAPID MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 46.9N  34.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 49.5N  28.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 53.5N  20.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Cindy","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY HAS EVAPORATED AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED. AN EARLIER 1950 UTC NRL\r\nWINDSAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW BELIEVABLE 35 KT WINDS BUT DID NOT\r\nSHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION...INDICATING ONLY A SHARP TROUGH. THE\r\nMETEOSAT 9 SHORT WAVE INFRARED IMAGERY...HOWEVER...SUGGESTS THAT A\r\nSMALL CLOSED CIRCULATION MAY STILL EXIST. IN ANY EVENT...CINDY\r\nLACKS THE CONVECTION REQUIRED OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL\r\nBE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT\r\nBASED ON THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nSCATTEROMETER PASS. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND COLD SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM\r\nREDEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND ULTIMATELY SHOULD CAUSE\r\nDISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 050/29...AND THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO FURTHER ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE\r\nMET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 49.2N  31.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 51.7N  25.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n400 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nTROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FOUND A CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 45 KT EAST OF THE CENTER...\r\nAND THERE WERE SEVERAL RELIABLE-LOOKING SMFR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES\r\nOF 35 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS TROPICAL\r\nSTORM DON.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS\r\nELONGATED...AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME REFORMATION OF THE CENTER COULD\r\nOCCUR TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE BURSTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10.  DON IS SOUTH OF\r\nA LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY\r\nTO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.  WHILE\r\nTHE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST.  THE\r\nGFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/\r\nGALVESTON AREA.  THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER\r\nTO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA.  THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nDON IS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FOR THE MOST PART FORECAST LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT 72 HR.  DESPITE\r\nTHIS...NONE OF THOSE MODELS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF\r\nTHE STORM...AND NEITHER DOES THE GFDL.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO REACH 55-65 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN\r\nTEXAS...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48 HR\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KT IS WELL BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GET\r\nSTRONGER THAN THIS BETWEEN 48-72 HR.\r\n \r\nWATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nTEXAS COAST TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 22.2N  87.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 23.1N  88.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 24.5N  90.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 25.8N  92.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 27.1N  94.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 29.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 31.0N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW THAT IS\r\nEXPANDING IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED BUT THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE CYCLONE AT DAYBREAK.\r\n \r\nDON IS MOVING OVER WARM WATERS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO\r\nREMAIN RELATIVELY LOW...ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.\r\nHOWEVER...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 48-HR OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST OF 55 KT IS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND DON COULD GAIN SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n10 KNOTS. THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES CONTROLLING THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION OF DON IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OR EVEN BUILD WESTWARD\r\nA LITTLE. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN\r\nIS ANTICIPATED...AND DON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ON THE SAME\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN QUITE AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS ONE WOULD\r\nLIKE TO SEE...HOWEVER.  SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFDL AND GFDN BRING\r\nTHE CYCLONE ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHILE OTHERS...LIKE THE\r\nECMWF...INDICATE A MORE WESTERLY MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO OPTIONS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND UNCERTAINTIES... A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF TEXAS COAST AT\r\nTHIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 22.8N  88.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 23.6N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 25.0N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 26.2N  93.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 27.5N  96.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 29.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-07-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011\r\n \r\nDON HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nMAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE IS\r\nNOT MUCH ORGANIZATION IN THE INFRARED CLOUD PATTERN...WHICH IS\r\nCONFIRMED BY A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 0608Z. ASCAT DATA FROM 0332Z\r\nSUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AROUND 35 KT...WITH SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT OR BELOW THAT VALUE.  THE ASCAT DATA CONFIRMED\r\nTHE EARLIER AIRCRAFT MEASUREMENTS THAT DON IS A RATHER SMALL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z\r\nTHIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY.  WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH SHEAR...THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS\r\nARE NOT WELL-ALIGNED INITIALLY...WHICH WAS APPARENT ON A 2316Z\r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE\r\nREPRESENTATION OF THIS INITIAL STRUCTURE AND KEEP THE CENTERS FROM\r\nVERTICALLY STACKING...POSSIBLY WHY THESE MODELS DO NOT SHOW\r\nMUCH INTENSIFICATION.  WHILE THE STATISTICALLY MODELS STILL\r\nFORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING...THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS FORECAST A\r\nSLOW DECLINE.  ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS THAT THE SIZE OF DON\r\nMAKES IT SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES IN STRENGTH...BOTH UP AND\r\nDOWN...THAT ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST.  GIVEN THE REDUCED\r\nORGANIZATION...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS STILL ON THE UPPER END OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR A COMPOSITE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9... WITH OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES SUGGESTING THE SMALL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY.  DON\r\nIS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLIGHTLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVE AWAY\r\nFROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER\r\nTHE CYCLONE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE IT.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT WITH LESS\r\nSPREAD THAN EARLIER.  THIS SHIFT TO THE LEFT SEEMS REASONABLE WITH\r\nTHE BUILDING RIDGE AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 23.0N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 23.9N  90.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 25.1N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 26.3N  94.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 27.3N  97.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 29.0N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-07-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n1000 AM CDT THU JUL 28 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF DON REMAINS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A\r\nPERSISTENT AREA OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS TWICE EXTRAPOLATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 1001 MB.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS ALSO REPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 52 KT AND RELIABLE-LOOKING WINDS OF 35-40 KT FROM THE\r\nSFMR.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12.  DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR. \r\nWHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nSIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF\r\nCORPUS CHRISTI.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD\r\nBUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SHOW THAT DON IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR IS NOW FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THESE FACTORS COULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND\r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS DON BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 24.1N  90.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 24.9N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 26.1N  93.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 27.3N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 28.5N  98.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 30.0N 102.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-07-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011\r\n \r\nDON HAS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON\r\nWITH STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE STORM.  IN ADDITION...A STREAM OF\r\nARC CLOUDS/GUSTS FRONTS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nSUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE CONVECTION.  DATA\r\nFROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOWED THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO 1005 MB...WHILE THE AIRCRAFT WINDS\r\nSUPPORTED AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/14.  DON REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS\r\nCOAST IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH SHIFTED NORTHWARD\r\nBETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nLIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  SOME ADJUSTMENT\r\nTO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSTABILIZES AROUND A TRACK SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGAIN FORECAST MODERATE SHEAR TO CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL.  THIS AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH DRY\r\nAIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO IMPEDE\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT DON WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND NOT AS A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF\r\nSHEAR AND ARC CLOUDS...THEN CALLS FOR DON TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY\r\nOF 50 KT NEAR LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE 48 HR POINT AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY\r\nTHE 72 HR POINT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 24.9N  91.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 25.8N  93.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 26.8N  95.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 27.8N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 28.8N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 30.5N 103.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-07-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n1000 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2011\r\n \r\nBOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN\r\nINVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD\r\nJOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nIS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY\r\nNOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998\r\nRESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE\r\nDROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY\r\nBASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nSTILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES.\r\nSINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY.    \r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DON HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND \r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE TRACK OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nTO PERSIST...A CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK \r\nIS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AND THIS DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD JOG AND\r\nNOT DUE TO ANY IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE\r\nSMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING. \r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nTRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME\r\nNORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 24.7N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 25.5N  94.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 26.6N  96.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 27.5N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 28.5N 101.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-07-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n400 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011\r\n \r\nDON CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN\r\nELONGATED AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION.  THIS SHEAR CAN ALSO BE SEEN\r\nIN RECONNAISSANCE DATA...WHICH SHOWED THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS\r\nDISPLACED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...A BLEND OF THE ESTIMATES FROM\r\nSATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n \r\nMODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST UNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL ALONG\r\nWITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT.  THIS COMBINATION WILL PROBABLY LIMIT\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH THE STORM IS MOVING OVER\r\nVERY WARM WATERS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS JUST A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AFTER MOVING THROUGH TEXAS...THIS\r\nSMALL SYSTEM WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AFTER INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nHIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST DON IS MOVING ABOUT 295/12.  HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES WILL PROBABLY STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE ALONG THAT GENERAL COURSE UNTIL LANDFALL...PERHAPS EVEN A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL IS\r\nFARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST.  AN EXAMINATION OF THE ECMWF FIELDS\r\nINDICATES THAT THE MODEL DECOUPLES THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTERS...ALLOWING DON TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.  THIS DOES\r\nNOT SEEM LIKELY AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL.  THUS THE NHC\r\nFORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE\r\nEXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 25.3N  93.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 26.1N  95.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 27.0N  97.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 27.8N 100.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-07-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DON HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING WITH INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nSTORM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WITH AN ELONGATED OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN AND A STREAM OF ARC\r\nCLOUDS IN THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED\r\nFROM THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS NEAR 1002 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/12.  DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES OVER LAND IN\r\n36-48 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MODERATE SHEAR UNTIL THE CENTER\r\nMAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 18 HR.  IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nAND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW DRY AIR CLOSE TO THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF DON.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPEDE\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THUS THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING.  DON SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nSTEADILY AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE\r\nCOMPLETELY BY 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DON. ANY SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR\r\nTHE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 26.2N  94.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 26.8N  96.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 27.7N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 28.3N 101.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Don","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-07-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n400 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DON REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF\r\nA DISORGANIZED MASS OF STRONG CONVECTION.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED 56 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB\r\nAND ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 46 KT WITH THE SFMR...BOTH IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 45 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT DOPPLER WIND DISPLAYS FROM\r\nTHE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D HAVE RECENTLY SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED\r\nMESOCYCLONE IN A STRONG CONVECTIVE CELL WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND THE PRIMARY CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/14.  DEEP-LAYER RIDGING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS CHRISTI\r\nIN THE NEXT 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS INTO\r\nNORTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THIS FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE 12 HR FORECAST POINT SHOWS WEAKENING...THERE IS\r\nSTILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DON TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN THE FEW\r\nHOURS REMAINING BEFORE LANDFALL.  THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nSTEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN TEXAS...AND IT IS FORECAST\r\nTO DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO BY 48 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 26.9N  96.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 27.5N  98.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 28.2N 100.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 28.8N 103.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Don","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-07-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DON HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY RADAR AND SATELLITE. THE \r\nSIGNIFICANT WEATHER OVER WATER HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND MOST OF\r\nTHE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INLAND.  DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE ALSO RAPIDLY\r\nDECREASING.  ON THIS BASIS...DON HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TEXAS COAST HAS\r\nBEEN DISCONTINUED. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS AND\r\nTHE CENTER IS CROSSING THE COAST IN THE VICINITY OF BAFFIN BAY. THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND ON THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 27.2N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 28.0N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 28.5N 102.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Don","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-07-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042011\r\n400 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2011\r\n \r\nTHE DON IS DEAD.  THE CYCLONE LITERALLY EVAPORATED OVER TEXAS ABOUT\r\nAS FAST AS I HAVE EVER SEEN WITHOUT MOUNTAINS INVOLVED.  DON HAS NO\r\nCONVECTION...MEAGER RAINFALL...AND ONLY A SLIGHT SIGNATURE IN\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR DATA.  THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  DON SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER\r\nTODAY AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE\r\nA RAINFALL THREAT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 27.9N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 28.5N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-01 23:30:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND\r\nOF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND\r\n45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER.  AS EVIDENCED BY THE\r\nAMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE\r\nCENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR\r\nLESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT\r\nEMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO. \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nRUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nIVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS\r\nCURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND\r\nDEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA\r\nAND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A\r\nBIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN\r\nFLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE\r\nRIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES\r\nCLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO\r\nREMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.  \r\n\r\nNOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD\r\n0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY.  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL THE\r\nTHE FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC/1100 PM AST/EDT.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2330Z 15.2N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 15.6N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 16.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 17.4N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 18.4N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 21.0N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 24.0N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 26.0N  79.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011\r\n \r\nEMILY STILL HAS A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AND LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE.  BASED ON THE LACK OF\r\nIMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\n00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB.  THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE ONLY\r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS SEEN BY THE COPIOUS\r\nDRY AIR IN THE 00Z SAN JUAN RADIOSONDE AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE\r\nWATER IMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFDL\r\nMODEL RUN EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS...AND THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS EMILY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA.  ASSUMING THAT EMILY RECOVERS\r\nFROM INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDEPARTED...SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF 275/15 ARE\r\nQUITE UNCERTAIN AND BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY.  OVERALL THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE\r\nNEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS.  THIS WILL ALLOW EMILY TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD... THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND\r\nSOME RIDGING RE-BUILDING NORTH OF EMILY.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE\r\nDETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE APPEAR TO MAKE\r\nALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST\r\nGFS RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE AND A MUCH DEEPER\r\nREPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT MOVES MORE NORTHWARD.  THE HWRF AND\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT\r\nMOVES MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH A STRONGER RIDGE.\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE TVCA\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 15.5N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 15.9N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 16.8N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 17.8N  69.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 18.9N  71.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 25.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 27.5N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILY INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT\r\nEVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES...AND SINCE THE CENTER LOCATION IS\r\nQUITE UNCERTAIN IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR THE CENTER IS\r\nEMBEDDED INTO THE DENSE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nOBTAINING A RELIABLE INTENSITY ESTIMATE VIA THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE IS\r\nPROBLEMATIC.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY AROUND 1200 UTC AND SHOULD GIVE A\r\nBETTER ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.  RADIOSONDE DATA\r\nFROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN STATIONS SHOW SOME UNFAVORABLE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 300 MB JUST BELOW THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW LEVEL.  MOREOVER...AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME DRY AIR IS\r\nPRESENT JUST TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF EMILY.  IN A FEW\r\nDAYS...PERHAPS IN PART DUE TO THESE LARGE-SCALE FACTORS...THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN EMILY TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING INTERRUPTED BY THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA...BUT NO LONGER BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OUR MOST RELIABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL LGEM.\r\n \r\nSINCE IT IS DIFFICULT TO FIND THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nRATHER UNCERTAIN 280/14.   THE STORM SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR A DAY OR SO.  AS A TROUGH\r\nJUST OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WEAKENS THE RIDGE...A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST...WITH THE ASSUMPTION OF A\r\nDEEPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  HOWEVER THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS DEPICT A MUCH MORE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE\r\nSHALLOW VORTEX OR TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE EMILY WILL BE AND HOW STRONG IT WILL BE IN\r\n3 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 15.5N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 16.2N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 17.0N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 17.8N  70.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 18.7N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 26.0N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 30.0N  80.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION APPEARS TO BE THE BEST SO FAR...\r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER AND FAIR UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT EMILY\r\nREMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS AROUND 1007 MB...\r\nAND WINDS ARE LIGHT OR VARIABLE ON THE SOUTH SIDE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST\r\nOF THE STORM...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. \r\nIT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL\r\nMODELS NO LONGER DEVELOP EMILY...AND IN FACT...BOTH MODELS BASICALLY\r\nDISSIPATE THE CYCLONE NEAR HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS\r\nBEEN MEANDERING AND MAY BE REORGANIZING NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nAT ABOUT 10 KNOTS TODAY.  A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS\r\nEASTWARD.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE EMILY ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTO NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH THEREAFTER.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nGENERAL SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 15.3N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 15.7N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 16.5N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 22.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 26.5N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 30.0N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH EMILY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME INCREASE\r\nIN THE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT DATA FROM THE AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT YET \r\nWELL DEFINED AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 45 KNOTS AND\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nEMILY MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IF EMILY\r\nSURVIVES THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION ONCE THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE GFS...WHICH \r\nDISSIPATED EMILY IN THE TWO PREVIOUS RUNS HAS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM MOVING EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS IN THE 12 UTC RUN.\r\nTHE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND HAS BEEN REFORMING\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT EMILY HAS RESUMED A WESTWARD TRACK AND\r\nIS NOW MOVING ABOUT 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTING\r\nEASTWARD. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN SPEED. MOST OF THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS EMILY MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nACROSS THE BAHAMAS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 15.8N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 16.2N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 17.3N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 18.5N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 20.5N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 24.0N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 28.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 32.0N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN\r\nA CDO-LIKE PATTERN...HOWEVER A 2157 UTC SSMIS PASS SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.0...45\r\nKT...FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...THAT THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE EMILY OVERNIGHT.\r\nUW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 12 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER EMILY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TILTED STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND THE LOCATION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN VELOCITY\r\nDATA FROM THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR.  OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME CONTINUED STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THAT TIME.  IF EMILY SURVIVES ITS TRIP\r\nACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS\r\nSUPPORTIVE OF RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nHOW EMILY WILL FARE AFTER LAND INTERACTION.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING GIVEN THE LACK\r\nOF AIRCRAFT AND MICROWAVE DATA.  BASED ON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SSMIS\r\nPASS...THE CENTER IS ASSUMED TO BE WEST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...\r\nYIELDING AN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/12...TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REACH MAXIMUM AMPLITUDE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALLOWING EMILY TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nBAHAMAS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT A\r\nMID-LEVEL WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EMILY SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5 AS A RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE IS THAT\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF NOW SHOW A LITTLE MORE RIDGING EAST OF EMILY LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD AND HAVE SHIFTED THEIR TRACKS WESTWARD...ESPECIALLY\r\nAT DAYS 3 AND 4.  THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nIS ALONG THE OLD TRACK...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AS IT TRENDS TOWARD\r\nTHE FASTER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE...AND NOW LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nGIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY SEEN IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGER THAN\r\nUSUAL BEYOND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\n...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST\r\nBAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 16.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 17.0N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 18.4N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 20.2N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 22.0N  74.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 26.0N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 29.5N  78.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 33.0N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT EMILY\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH SINCE YESTERDAY.  PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WERE 46 KT AND THE HIGHEST SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE 42\r\nKT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATE\r\nTHAT ABOUT 15 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS\r\nWHICH INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS TILTED EASTWARD WITH\r\nHEIGHT.  ALSO...CENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WERE VERY\r\nNEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA.\r\nNORTH OF THAT ISLAND...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT LOOKS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 2 TO 5 DAYS IS CONSERVATIVE...\r\nHOWEVER...AS IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW SEVERELY EMILY WILL BE DISRUPTED\r\nBY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS THE VERY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND MOVE THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT\r\nBEGINS TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  IN\r\nGENERAL...THE TRACK MODELS HAVE NOT SHIFTED CLOSER TO FLORIDA ON\r\nTHIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO TO THE LATEST ECMWF PREDICTION.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED HOWEVER THAT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN THE MODELS AROUND\r\nDAY 3 AND BEYOND...SO THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST FOR THAT TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 16.5N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 17.3N  69.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 19.0N  71.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 20.7N  73.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 22.5N  75.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 26.5N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 30.0N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 33.5N  74.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 03 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EMILY HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE DEPARTED EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING. IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO WIND SHEAR. THE LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION IS ALSO LESS DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. THE LAST\r\nWINDS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHILE EXITING THE\r\nCYCLONE SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS\r\nARE CONFINED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSHEAR PATTERN NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER\r\nMOVES OVER WESTERN HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS EMILY MOVES NORTHWESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE BAHAMAS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280\r\nDEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. ASSUMING EMILY CAN MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEP\r\nCIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOON TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nIN THE STEERING PATTERN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nWESTWARD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS REMAINS ALONG\r\nTHE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINMAKER FOR THE DOMINICAN\r\nREPUBLIC...HAITI...PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 16.7N  69.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 17.5N  71.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 21.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  76.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 26.6N  78.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 30.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 34.1N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011\r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nAND DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY IN EMILY\r\nINDICATE THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KNOTS...WITH A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003 MB.  WIND SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE\r\nCYCLONE...BUT GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BY THEN...EMILY SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nAWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA...AND SOME INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN. HOWEVER...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET...WITH EMILY STILL MOVING\r\nWESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. SO FAR MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD\r\nBIAS.  EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS STILL REFORMS THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN HISPANIOLA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...BRINGING EMILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI AND\r\nTHEN EASTERN CUBA.  AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL\r\nASSUMES THAT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY\r\nTO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nNORTHWARD TURN DOES NOT BEGIN SOON...THE THREAT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES WILL INCREASE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 16.9N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 17.5N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 19.5N  74.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 21.5N  76.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 27.0N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 31.0N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 03 2011\r\n \r\nEMILY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AS MULTIPLE\r\nFIXES FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BETWEEN\r\n21Z AND 00Z WERE ALL ESSENTIALLY IN THE SAME LOCATION.  DATA FROM\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT SHOWED LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY...WHICH REMAINS\r\n45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SLOW MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE ALLOWED\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO COME IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH HAS EXPANDED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY LAND\r\nINTERACTION WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO SLIGHT WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED DURING THAT PERIOD.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE\r\nBELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND WELL BELOW THE MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRUCTURE OF\r\nEMILY AFTER IT TRAVERSES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS VERY SLOW...TOWARD THE WEST OR 280\r\nDEGREES AT 4 KNOTS USING A LONG-TERM AVERAGE...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT\r\nTERM MOTION IS EVEN SLOWER.  THE GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON TURNING\r\nEMILY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS THROUGH THAT TIME DUE TO THE SLOW INITIAL MOTION.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...EMILY SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EAST OF THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE RUN TO RUN\r\nCONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH BOTH THE DETAILS OF THE STEERING FEATURES\r\nAND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE MODEL FIELDS.  OVERALL...\r\nTHE LATEST ROUND OF GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION FROM 36 TO\r\n72 HOURS...BUT STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAT THOSE TIMES.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...EMILY SHOULD ACCELERATE QUICKLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LARGER THAN\r\nNORMAL GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW MOTION...THE POTENTIAL STRUCTURAL\r\nCHANGES OF THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND IN THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nFROM RUN TO RUN.  IF A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION DOES NOT BEGIN\r\nSOON...OR THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHIFTS FARTHER TO THE LEFT IN FUTURE\r\nCYCLES...THE THREAT TO FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nWILL INCREASE.  \r\n    \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 17.1N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 17.9N  72.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 22.1N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 23.8N  77.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 31.5N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011\r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT EMILY IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE ELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO\r\nSOUTHWEST...AND IT IS VERY WEAK ABOVE 700 MB.  THE JET DATA\r\nINDICATED 300 MB WINDS BLOWING INTO THE SYSTEM DUE TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CUBA...AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO\r\nABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS\r\nPRODUCING VERY STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION...THE AIR FORCE DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL AROUND 45 KT.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAD TO ABORT ITS MISSION DUE\r\nTO AVIONICS PROBLEMS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE MOVE AGAIN...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nA RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/6. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST\r\nTHAT EMILY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR DUE TO A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE PROBLEMS WITH RUN-TO-RUN\r\nCONSISTENCY...AS THE 00Z RUNS HAVE ALL SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHIFT EASTWARD\r\nDUE TO THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY AND SINCE THE FORECAST NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTURN HAS NOT YET MATERIALIZED. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 12-48 HR. AFTER 72\r\nHR...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS EMILY TO RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER CUBA\r\nWILL EVOLVE INTO A CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS TO THE NORTH OF EMILY.  THE\r\nSTORM IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MODERATE SHEAR OVER EMILY.  IN\r\nADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR JUST NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSTORM...AND LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IS YET\r\nANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR.  DESPITE THESE NEGATIVES...THE SHIPS...\r\nLGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL FORECAST STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HR DUE\r\nTO SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION...AND THEN CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 96 HR SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII DO NOT REQUIRE A WATCH FOR\r\nSOUTHERN FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.  IF EMILY DOES NOT BEGIN ITS\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN SOON...A WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF\r\nSOUTHERN FLORIDA LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 17.3N  71.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 17.9N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 20.0N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 22.5N  76.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 24.7N  77.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 28.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 32.5N  74.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 36.0N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emily","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY WHEN THERE WAS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL\r\nCENTER. TODAY THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION WITH\r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...A POSSIBLE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME\r\nESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLIER THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS\r\nREMAIN AT 45 KNOTS AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS STEADY. \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE COMPLEX THAN USUAL. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA AND THAT IMPLIES WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE...AND OBVIOUSLY THESE MODELS\r\nCAN DETECT AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT IS NOT APPARENT TO ME.\r\nTHIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION WITH SUCH\r\nINDICATIONS FROM THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE. ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIPS\r\nAND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE. GIVEN THIS HIGH\r\nDEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY...OR PERHAPS FOR A SLIGHT WEAKENING\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES BY HAITI AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nSOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ONCE EMILY REACHES THE AREA OF\r\nTHE BAHAMAS. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FIXES INDICATE THAT EMILY IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN\r\nFAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH\r\nA GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS.\r\nIT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR WEST EMILY WILL REACH BEFORE RECURVATURE...\r\nPRIMARILY GIVEN THAT GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF EMILY WELL OFF THE\r\nEAST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND GIVEN THE SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWIND RADII ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH FOR THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST COAST IS NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 17.3N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 18.6N  73.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 21.0N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 23.0N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 25.0N  78.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 29.0N  77.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 32.5N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 36.0N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Emily","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 04 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE ITS INCEPTION...EMILY NEVER HAD A PARTICULARLY ROBUST\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA\r\nCONTRIBUTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE FURTHER DEGENERATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE TODAY. SATELLITE...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EMILY NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION....AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROUGH OF\r\nLOW PRESSURE WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 75W. THIS WAS A BIG WIN FOR THE\r\nECMWF GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH NEVER DEVELOPED EMILY AND ALWAYS\r\nFORECAST DISSIPATION NEAR HISPANIOLA. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL A LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED DISTURBED WEATHER OVER\r\nHISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF EMILY. THIS ACTIVITY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SPREAD TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OVER\r\nEASTERN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS WITH SOME POTENTIAL\r\nFOR REGENERATION IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  \r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH EMILY HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A THREAT FOR\r\nTHE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 19.0N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH \r\n 12H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS...AND DATA\r\nFROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF EMILY HAVE REGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nALBEIT A WEAK AND RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED ONE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 25 KT IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF AROUND 30 KT MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. \r\nONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR AND MODERATE\r\nNORTHERLY WIND SHEAR...AND EMILY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STATUS...IF AT ALL...UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS OVER OPEN WATERS\r\nAND MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...EMILY SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING AND BE ABSORBED BY A MID-\r\nLATITUDE FRONTAL WAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND\r\n72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...NORTH AT 7 KT...IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\nSINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOMEWHAT ERRATICALLY TODAY.  EMILY\r\nIS CURRENTLY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND\r\nWILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS IT IS BECOMES STEERED BY THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA\r\nTHROUGH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND ITS\r\nFORECAST MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE UNITED STATES...NO\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.  THE MAIN IMPACT\r\nWILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 26.9N  78.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 27.9N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 29.9N  75.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 31.6N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 33.6N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 06 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THIS AFTERNOON FOUND\r\n1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 48 KT IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nQUADRANT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF EMILY. HOWEVER...THESE\r\nWINDS WERE OCCURRING NEAR ISOLATED SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS AND WERE\r\nNOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION.\r\nHOWEVER...OTHER FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT EMILY IS A SOLID 30-KT DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD OR 360/07 KT. EMILY IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST\r\nALONG 28N LATITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nALONG THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE EMILY AND\r\nACCELERATE IT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES. EMILY IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND\r\nTHE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS ALONG THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...EMILY\r\nIS NOW EXPERIENCING 10-15 OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS\r\nELONGATED BOTH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AND THE SURFACE WIND FIELD IN\r\nA NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION. MODEST NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. BY 24 HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX...WHICH MAY ALLOW\r\nFOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR\r\nBEGINS TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE AND INDUCES WEAKENING. THE EXACT\r\nTIMING OF MERGER WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM THE\r\nCAROLINAS TO NEAR BERMUDA IS DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THIS TIME OF THE\r\nYEAR OVER SUCH WARM SSTS. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR\r\nSHORTLY AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION FOR EMILY TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY OUT TO 72 HOURS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 27.4N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 29.2N  76.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 30.9N  74.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 32.5N  69.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 34.0N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED...DISPLACED\r\nNORTHEAST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. THIS\r\nWOULD SEEM TO BE THE CASE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT\r\nIN WHICH EMILY IS EMBEDDED BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONE'S\r\nCURRENT ORGANIZATION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHIPS ANALYSES\r\nINDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WHICH COULD BE A FACTOR.  UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES\r\nALSO INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION\r\nWHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE BECOMING\r\nWESTERLY AND INCREASING WITHIN 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST\r\nTHAT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER THAT\r\nTIME BEFORE ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS. FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nDISSIPATION IS NOW INDICATED SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09.  UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nEMILY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ON THE NORTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N68W.  THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST\r\nHEADING DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR\r\nEVEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 28.5N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 29.9N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 31.7N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 33.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Emily","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT EMILY CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED\r\nSWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS LOCATED WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS\r\nSATELLITE ANALYSIS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT ON THE\r\nBASIS OF CONTINUITY AND A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nAND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL IT IS\r\nABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...EMILY COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...\r\nOR THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH EARLIER THAN DISSIPATION\r\nIS INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS AHEAD OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES\r\nAND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...035 DEGREES...AT 15 KT.\r\nOVERALL...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS EMILY\r\nWILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE NEW\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 30.1N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 31.6N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 33.4N  69.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 35.2N  63.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Emily","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nEMILY HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. \r\nTHEREFORE...EMILY DOES NOT MEET THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY.  REGENERATION OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE RELATIVELY HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR.\r\n\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT\r\n15 KT...ALTHOUGH THE EXACT MOTION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH\r\nAS THE CENTER HAS LOST DEFINITION.  THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO INDICATE THAT THE REMNANTS OF EMILY WILL MOVE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT UNTIL THEY ARE\r\nABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  \r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 31.1N  74.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC\r\nZONE OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE PAST DAY OR\r\nTWO HAS LOST ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE WARM ATLANTIC\r\nWATERS. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING OVER THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BASED\r\nON ITS PRESENTATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER BUOY\r\nREPORTS...THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nWITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nNOT FORECAST SINCE THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...FAIRLY DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR...AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nOVER WATERS COOLER THAN 25C AND INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 065/14 AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN\r\nAND A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS FLOW PATTERN IS\r\nNOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THAT\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN THE SAME GENERAL HEADING UNTIL IT\r\nMERGES WITH A FRONT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 36.0N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 37.0N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 38.5N  57.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 39.8N  53.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 40.6N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2011\r\n\r\nTHROUGH 0000 UTC...THE DEPRESSION WAS MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...WITH SSM/IS AND TRMM DATA NEAR 2330 UTC SHOWING SOME\r\nCONVECTIVE CURVATURE NEAR THE CENTER.  SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS DIMINISHED...ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS A DIURNAL\r\nMINIMUM OR THE START OF A WEAKENING TREND.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/19.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE\r\nGENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE EAST THAT SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS JUST SOUTHEAST OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD COOLER WATERS.  IN ADDITION...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE AFTER 6-12 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THERE IS ONLY A SHORT\r\nWINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE DEPRESSION MERGES WITH THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE\r\nFRONTAL ZONE BY 72 HR...AND THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR EARLIER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS INTENSE THAN THE FORECAST OF\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 36.6N  61.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 37.8N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 39.3N  54.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 40.3N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 40.3N  45.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A\r\nLARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  AN AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS AT 0553 UTC SUGGESTS THE CENTRAL\r\nFEATURES OF THE SYSTEM WERE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED WITH MORE\r\nCURVATURE NOTED.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB/SAB WITH AN AMSU-BASED ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS OF 37 KT. \r\nGIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION AND STRUCTURAL\r\nIMPROVEMENTS IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35\r\nKT...MAKING THIS SYSTEM THE SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE YEAR.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME LEFT TO INTENSIFY AS IT WILL SOON\r\nBE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM.  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CATCHING THE STORM FROM\r\nBEHIND.  THUS...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS SHOWN IN THE\r\nNHC FORECAST...SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE TYPES OF NORTHEASTWARD MOVING SYSTEMS\r\nHAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...AND IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING IF THE STORM BRIEFLY BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN\r\nPREDICTED.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS ESTIMATED\r\nAT 055/17.  FRANKLIN IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITHIN MID-LATITUDE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nEAST AS THE STORM MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE.  THE LATEST FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY...AND LIES JUST TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE ATLANTIC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  A COLD FRONT CAN\r\nBE SEEN A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF FRANKLIN...AND THIS\r\nFEATURE...ALONG WITH COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SHEAR...SHOULD\r\nCAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE SYSTEM\r\nSMALL SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE FRONT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 37.9N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 39.0N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 40.0N  52.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 40.4N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 40.0N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...A SIGNIFICANT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nPERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN. PASSIVE\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE HAD DEVELOPED BETWEEN 08Z AND 10Z...AND THAT COULD\r\nBE WHEN FRANKLIN POSSIBLY REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 45 KT.\r\nSINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS ERODED\r\nSOMEWHAT DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR AND COOLER WATER BENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\nT3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...38 KT FROM\r\nCIRA-AMSU...AND 39 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/19 BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE FIXES. FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP WESTERLY\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS\r\nMOVING EASTWARD OFF OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS PROGRESSIVE\r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD KEEP FRANKLIN MOVING IN A GENERAL EASTERLY DIRECTION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK\r\nAND IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFRANKLIN LIKELY PEAKED EARLIER THIS MORNING AND IS NOW ENTERING A\r\nWEAKENING PHASE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER COOLER THAN 26C AND WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. FRANKLIN IS FORECAST TO\r\nMERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24-36 HOURS INDUCING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWER\r\nTHAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 39.0N  57.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 39.9N  54.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 40.6N  50.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 40.6N  45.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 40.0N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Franklin","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER THE MORNING FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nFRANKLIN...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND COLDER WATER HAVE STARTED\r\nTAKING THEIR TOLL ON THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS NOW\r\nSHEARED MORE THAN 90 NMI FROM THE CENTER AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. FRANKLIN IS QUICKLY TAKING ON THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF A POST TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON A TAFB\r\nSATELLITE DATA-T NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 070/19. FRANKLIN SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.\r\nAS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW...\r\nFRANKLIN SHOULD DECELERATE AND BE STEERED TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST\r\nBY WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE NHC DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFRANKLIN IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SST WATER AND COOLER WATER LIES AHEAD\r\nOF THE CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLDER WATER SHOULD\r\nINHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...FRANKLIN COULD BECOME FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A COLD FRONT IN 24\r\nHOURS...AND IT STILL APPEARS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY TO CAUSE FRANKLIN TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS LOWER THAN\r\nALL OF THE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 39.7N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 40.2N  51.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 40.3N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 39.9N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 38.8N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Franklin","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062011\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER\r\nDATA...INDICATE THAT FRANKLIN HAS BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE LOW IS MOVING 065/23 AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN EASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT...A SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HR.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 40.5N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 40.8N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 40.5N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 39.5N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 38.0N  38.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS DEVELOPED PERSISTENT CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION AROUND A TIGHTLY-WOUND LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 30 KT...AND BASED ON THESE\r\nADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSEVEN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/9.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LARGE LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nBY 36 HR AND RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERLIES BY 72 HR. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE FORECAST BEING\r\nA BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFDL MODEL FORECASTS.  A POTENTIAL\r\nCOMPLICATION TO THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHOWN BY THE UKMET MODEL...\r\nWHICH FORECASTS THE DEPRESSION TO EXPERIENCE ERRATIC MOTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HR AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ABOUT\r\n400 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST.   IF SUCH INTERACTION OCCURS...IT WOULD\r\nDELAY THE APPROACH OF THE DEPRESSION TO BERMUDA.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOWS TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nAND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THESE SYSTEMS ARE HELPING TO\r\nPRODUCE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS\r\nADVECTING UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION.  IN ADDITION...\r\nA LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR ARE\r\nAPPROACHING THE DEPRESSION FROM THE EAST.  WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HR TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT...\r\nTHE ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM\r\nWATER.  AFTER 72 HR...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED INTO A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nBERMUDA AT THIS TIME.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE\r\nREQUIRED SOMETIME ON SUNDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 27.9N  61.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 28.6N  62.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 30.1N  63.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 32.0N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 35.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 43.0N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2011\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY.  IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED FARTHER\r\nAWAY FROM THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC WERE 30\r\nKT...AND AN ASCAT PASS AT 0100 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25\r\nTO 30 KT RANGE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT.  SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM\r\nWATER AND IN A LOW TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM AND DRY AIR\r\nAROUND IT...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nCROSSES A VERY SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND INTERACTS\r\nWITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  BY DAY 4...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...AS EXPECTED...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nIS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE\r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER FLOW\r\nBETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  ONE SOURCE OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS THAT BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nMODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH...OR ABSORBING...A\r\nTROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  IF THIS OCCURS...THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD MOVE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 28.5N  62.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 29.4N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 31.2N  63.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 33.7N  63.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 37.3N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 45.5N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 14 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO REDEVELOP OVER AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IN RESPONSE TO\r\nDECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.\r\nALTHOUGH DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO T1.5 AND T1.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT AND\r\nTHE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE FIXES.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING INTO A COL\r\nREGION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT IS LOCATED\r\nABOUT 150 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT...THE PREVIOUS\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME IS BEING REPLACED BY A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR\r\nTHE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS...WHICH WOULD\r\nNORMALLY FAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC\r\nCONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nOVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 48 HOURS. THESE OUT-OF-PHASE CONDITIONS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO RESULT IN ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 4...THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND MADE AN UNEXPECTED JOG TO THE WEST...\r\nAND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/09. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE RECENT\r\nWESTWARD JOG IS PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO THE SYSTEM BECOMING MORE\r\nVERTICALLY SHALLOW AFTER THE DEEP CONVECTION WEAKENED EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT COMES UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW. BEYOND 12\r\nHOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED. THE 12Z\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA FROM BERMUDA THIS MORNING INDICATES THE MID-LEVEL\r\nFLOW FROM 700-400 MB HAS BACKED AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND\r\nHEIGHTS HAVE FALLEN 40-60 METERS WITHIN THIS LAYER. THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nWEAKENED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nEVEN NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING BERMUDA RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST IS THE\r\nLIKELY CAUSE OF THE EROSION OF THE RIDGE. WITH THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH STILL OVER THE U.S. OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...THE RIDGE\r\nCOULD TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK WESTWARD BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION...RESULTING IN A STAIR-STEP TYPE OF MOTION TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE CYCLONE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY\r\n36-48 HOURS AND TAKE IT ACROSS MUCH COLDER WATER IN 60-72\r\nHOURS...WHICH WILL INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK THROUGH 24 HOURS BASED ON THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT WELL TO THE EAST OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED BAM MODELS.\r\n \r\nAS A RESULT OF THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE\r\nHAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 28.2N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 29.6N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 31.8N  63.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 34.9N  62.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 38.6N  58.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 47.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM GERT AND SMALL BANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP\r\nIN THE NORTH AND EAST QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT ALONG WITH UNCONTAMINATED SFMR WINDS OF 39 AND\r\n41 KT. THE SFMR WINDS CORRELATE WELL WITH AN EARLIER 1324Z ASCAT\r\nPASS THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT IN THE SAME GENERAL\r\nAREA OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE RECENT SFMR WINDS AND\r\nEARLIER ASCAT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT GERT HAS REDEVELOPED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nHAS BECOME A MORE VERTICALLY DEEP SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL STORM HAS\r\nSTARTED MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 335/07...TOWARD A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nFAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING EASTWARD OVER AND NORTH OF\r\nBERMUDA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN ITS WAKE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD BACK WESTWARD AND CREATE\r\nSOME STAIR-STEP MOTIONS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN U.S. MOVING\r\nSTEADILY EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 32N LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS\r\nA RESULT... THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND\r\nSTEER GERT NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN\r\nACCELERATE THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED GLOBAL MODEL SUITE.\r\n\r\nGERT HAS MOVED INTO A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR REGION ON THE NORTH SIDE\r\nOF A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nPERSIST AND PRODUCE A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE STORM.\r\nTHIS FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME...ALONG WITH WARM SSTS ABOVE\r\n28C...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OT SO. THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BECOME LESS\r\nCONDUCIVE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LOW. BY 48\r\nHOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATER AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 30 KT.\r\nTHIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nCAUSE GERT TO MAKE THE TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 28.9N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 30.3N  63.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 32.3N  63.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 34.9N  61.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 38.9N  58.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 46.0N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2011\r\n \r\nON SATELLITE IMAGERY...GERT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY CIRCULAR\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT IS LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES.  A\r\nSMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT FORMED OVER THE STORM IS\r\nPROVIDING SOME MODEST OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM A FEW HOURS AGO...THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40\r\nKT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES. \r\nGERT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A WEAK SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  BY AROUND 48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN\r\nABRUPT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR AS GERT APPROACHES A BELT OF\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN 72 HOURS...PERHAPS\r\nSOONER...GERT IS LIKELY TO BECOME EMBEDDED IN A FRONTAL ZONE AND\r\nTRANSFORMED INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nINCREASING AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 345/10.  GERT\r\nIS MOVING BETWEEN A RATHER DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS NEARING\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK OF GERT AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE\r\nISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 30.2N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 31.9N  63.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 34.7N  62.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 38.5N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 42.0N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 47.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011\r\n \r\nGERT HAS STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT.  AN 0543 UTC AMSR-E PASS AND\r\nDOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA INDICATE THAT GERT HAS A FAIRLY\r\nWELL-DEVELOPED INNER CORE AND A SPIRAL BAND THAT WRAPS ABOUT\r\nTHREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE\r\nESTABLISHED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS INCREASED TO 50 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THERE IS STILL SOME NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR IMPACTING THE CYCLONE...AS SEEN IN THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE\r\nANALYSIS AND THE SOUTHWARD TILT WITH HEIGHT OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER IN THE AMSR-E IMAGERY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING GERT LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL\r\nPROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TO THE NORTH DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/12.\r\nGERT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAND GAIN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE STRONGER FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF GERT APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND BENEATH\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  AFTER 24 HOURS...GERT IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE SOME\r\nWEAKENING.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WATERS COOLER THAN\r\n20C...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THAT\r\nTIME PERIOD.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL\r\nABSORB GERT IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK OF GERT...AS ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT DURING THE\r\nNEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS COULD BRING STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO...OR OVER...THE\r\nISLAND.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 31.3N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 33.5N  62.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 36.8N  60.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 40.3N  57.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 43.0N  51.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 48.0N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 15 2011\r\n \r\nTHE PRESENTATION OF GERT IN DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM BERMUDA \r\nHAS INDICATED BRIEF PERIODIC TIGHTENING OF THE INNER CORE\r\nCIRCULATION...INCLUDING A SMALL 6-8 NMI DIAMETER EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE...ONLY TO HAVE THE CONVECTION WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE \r\nDUE TO INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT\r\nINVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE HAS FOUND MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 53 KT AND A FEW UNCONTAMINATED 49-51 KT SFMR WINDS IN \r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...ACCOMPANIED BY A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR\r\n1000 MB. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/10 KT. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. GERT HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH\r\nA BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS NOW REACHED THE AXIS OF\r\nTHE EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT LIES ALONG 32N LATITUDE. AS THE\r\nLARGE FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nCONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS...GERT SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE\r\nAND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY LATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nSOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF GERT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND BENEATH\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. HOWEVER...GERT IS A SMALLER THAN AVERAGE\r\nSIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO\r\nINTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR AND SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL SHEAR. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. BY 24 HOURS...GERT WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 26C...AND OVER WATER COOLER THAN 20C BY 48\r\nHOURS. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 24 HOURS\r\nAND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 48 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ALSO BEGINS\r\nTO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND SHEAR.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS. EXTRATROPICAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS WERE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FOR BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 32.0N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 34.3N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 37.8N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 40.8N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 43.4N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 48.5N  33.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM BERMUDA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE GERT HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LAST\r\nRECON FLIGHT LEG THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT PRODUCED AN 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT...WHICH EQUATES TO ROUGHLY 49 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE. GIVEN THE APPARENT STEADY NATURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE\r\nTO A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY . UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE. GERT HAS\r\nMOVED NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020/12. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS GERT COMES UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYERED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER 12 HOURS...AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GERT TO INTENSIFY IS GRADUALLY COMING\r\nTO A CLOSE. THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER AT LEAST 26C SSTS FOR ANOTHER\r\n12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL LOW. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR GERT TO REACH 55 KT...IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT CYCLONE COULD REACH 60 KT BETWEEN THE 12- AND\r\n24-HOUR FORECAST PERIODS DURING THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM\r\nPERIOD AROUND 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. BY 36 HOURS...GERT WILL BE OVER\r\nNEAR-20C SSTS AND UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND\r\nEXTRATROPICAL INTENSITY FORECASTS PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 33.2N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 35.7N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 38.9N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 41.7N  51.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 44.6N  45.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 15 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST SOME NORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE CENTER WITH\r\nHEIGHT.  DVORAK ESTIMATES OF INTENSITY RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT AND\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GERT\r\nSHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATER FOR ONLY ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS...\r\nSO WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE IN 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 36 HOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED\r\nBY A LARGE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES HAVE BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING BUT MY BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nTHE MOTION IS NOW NEAR 030/16.  GERT IS BEING SWEPT UP IN THE FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO THE RIGHT IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO HIGHER\r\nLATITUDES AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY A MORE ZONAL STEERING CURRENT. \r\nTHD OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 34.7N  61.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 37.3N  59.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 40.8N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 44.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 46.5N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nGERT APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCLOUD TOPS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS CIRCULAR. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nWEAKENING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF GERT IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE STORM CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM LATER THIS MORNING\r\nAND MOVES INTO STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. GERT IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER\r\nWATERS NEAR 20C...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER ESPECIALLY IF THE\r\nCURRENT TREND CONTINUES. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF GERT WILL BE ABSORBED\r\nINTO A FRONT IN A LITTLE OVER 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nWATERS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/19. AN\r\nADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nRIGHT ARE FORECAST AS GERT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE\r\nUNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE EASTWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 36.4N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 38.9N  56.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 42.2N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 45.4N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 48.5N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gert","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nGERT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VIRTUALLY EVAPORATING AROUND 10Z.  MORNING\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND TO SOME DEGREE DETERMINISTIC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...IMPLIED THAT GERT HAS ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW CONFLICTING WITH LIGHTER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE 300 HPA LEVEL. \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED...THOUGH NEW CONVECTION IS\r\nTRYING TO DEVELOP ON ITS NORTHEAST SIDE WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION\r\nOF A SWITCH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE CURRENT T-NUMBER FROM TAFB BUT HIGHER THAN THAT PROVIDED BY\r\nSAB.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE IT CROSSES THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW IT TO RETAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY.  GERT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\n12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS NEAR 20C AND INTERACTS WITH\r\nTHE APPROACHINIG COLD FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO TEMPORARY\r\nRESTRENGTHENING...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LEFT\r\nRELATIVELY UNCHANGED.  THE RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD LOSE\r\nDEFINITION WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nWATERS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/26. THIS\r\nSYSTEM COULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY MORE AS GERT BECOMES INCREASINGLY\r\nSTEERED BY THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE EAST OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE\r\nEASTWARD SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nTIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION INCORPORATE IDEAS COMMUNICATED\r\nBY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 38.1N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 41.0N  54.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 44.3N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROTH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Gert","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072011\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN MORE THAN 12 HR SINCE GERT LAST PRODUCED SIGNIFICANT\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION...A TREND THAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE AS THE\r\nCENTER MOVES OVER INCREASING COLDER WATERS.  IN ADDITION...AN ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS AT 1420 UTC WAS AMBIGUOUS...AT BEST...AS TO WHETHER A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTED.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...GERT\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO\r\nPERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12 HR OR SO BEFORE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT QUALITY CONTROL ON A REPORT OF 44-KT WINDS\r\nFROM SHIP WDC6923 SUGGESTS THE REPORTED WINDS ARE A LITTLE TOO\r\nHIGH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE IN LINE WITH THE ASCAT\r\nDATA.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON GERT FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 39.5N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 41.9N  50.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 18 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS BEFORE SUNSET INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF THE WAVE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA WAS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING\r\nWITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN\r\nHONDURAS. MICROWAVE DATA FROM THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONFIRM THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A RECENT 0134Z SSMIS\r\nPASS EVEN HAS A WEAK RING FEATURE IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.\r\nSIGNIFICANT 24H PRESSURE FALLS OF 3 TO 4 MB HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED\r\nAT BUOY 42057...WHICH HAVE LONG BEEN A HALLMARK OF TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFORMATION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...IN\r\nADDITION TO THE ABOVE DATA...SUPPORT ADVISORIES BEING INITIATED ON\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A PEAK 1-MIN WIND OF 27 KT FROM THE BUOY\r\nAND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 30 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nTHE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS.\r\nONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  GIVEN HOW CLOSE THE SYSTEM IS TO\r\nLAND...IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT STRENGTHEN\r\nAT ALL AND WEAKEN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HONDURAS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE GFDL FORECAST OF THE DEPRESSION MOVING\r\nINTO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BEING CONSIDERED AN UNLIKELY\r\nSOLUTION.  THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 15.4N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 15.5N  83.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 15.7N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 15.9N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 16.2N  88.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 17.0N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE THIS\r\nMORNING.  BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...THE\r\nCENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL\r\nCLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. \r\nTHIS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/10.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE-OR-LESS WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nREMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE WHILE BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE\r\nSIMPLER BAM MODELS.  ALTHOUGH A 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS\r\nPROVIDED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE ANNIHILATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n\r\nDVORAK NUMBERS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION LATER THIS\r\nMORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE CERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY...NOT TO\r\nMENTION THE CENTER LOCATION...IF IT EXISTS AT ALL.  LITTLE TO NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS SINCE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO SKIRT ALONG THE COAST OF...OR MOVE INLAND\r\nOVER...HONDURAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WATER FOR A\r\nLONGER PERIOD OF TIME IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AS SHOWN BY\r\nTHE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT COULD ALSO JUST AS\r\nEASILY MOVE OVER LAND AND NEVER RE-EMERGE OVER WATER...WHICH MAY\r\nPRECLUDE ANY INTENSIFICATION AT ALL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 15.5N  83.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 15.6N  84.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 15.8N  86.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 16.1N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 16.4N  89.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 17.0N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ABOUT 30 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE POSITION IN EARLIER ADVISORIES.  HOW MUCH OF THIS\r\nSHIFT IS DUE TO A CHANGE IN THE MOTION AND HOW MUCH IS DUE TO\r\nREFORMATION OF THE CENTER IS NOT OBVIOUS IN THE DATA CURRENTLY\r\nAVAILABLE.  THE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURES OF\r\n1004-1005 MB...850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT...AND RELIABLE\r\nSFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT.  THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS JUST BELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 275/9.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nPARALLEL TO...BUT SHIFTED NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nHAS THE CENTER PASSING NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND\r\nOVER THE COAST OF BELIZE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO SPEND MORE TIME OVER\r\nWATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND THIS REQUIRES REVISING THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST UPWARD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO REACH\r\nA PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KT NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL IN BELIZE. \r\nTHIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER GFDL/HWRF MODELS\r\nAND THE STRONGER SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 16.1N  83.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 16.3N  85.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 16.7N  86.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 17.1N  88.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 17.5N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 18.0N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n \r\nEARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WAS ON THE VERGE OF\r\nBECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nDEPRESSION WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM HARVEY AT 1800 UTC AND IS\r\nNOW ESTIMATED TO HAVE WINDS OF 40 KT.  THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO REACH THE STORM NEAR 00Z.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/10. THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48-72\r\nHOURS...AND THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH ITS LIFETIME. ONE CHANGE SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY IS THAT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BRINGING THE CENTER BRIEFLY OVER\r\nTHE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nIN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nCURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE SUGGEST HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN UNTIL LANDFALL IN BELIZE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT NEAR LANDFALL IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THEREAFTER...HARVEY SHOULD SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  THERE\r\nARE TWO NOTES ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  FIRST...THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE\r\nOF 25 KT OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY PROBABILITIES TABLE SHOWS A 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF HARVEY\r\nBEING A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.  SECOND...THE INTENSITIES LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD COULD REQUIRE ADJUSTMENT IF THE CENTER MOVES\r\nFARTHER OUT INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 16.5N  84.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 16.7N  86.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 17.1N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 17.6N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 18.0N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THIS\r\nEVENING INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH\r\nOF THE COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS WAS A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES AND REQUIRED A RELOCATION ON THE 0000 UTC\r\nINTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT. A\r\nDROPSONDE THAT JUST MISSED THE CENTER MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 997 MB WITH 32 KT AT THE SURFACE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IS AROUND 994 MB... A DROP OF ABOUT 11 MB SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. \r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  HARVEY WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM\r\nWATER AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT.  THE ONLY INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR IS ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nASSUMES THAT HARVEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST AND\r\nBE FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR HARVEY TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF BELIZE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\nAFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS PREDICTED AND HARVEY IS LIKELY\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/8...A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE 0000 UTC GUIDANCE SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.  THIS REQUIRED A \r\nSOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 16.2N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 16.4N  86.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 16.8N  88.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 17.3N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 17.7N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 18.5N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n400 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER A LULL BETWEEN 0400 AND 0600 UTC...DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nRE-BLOSSOMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF HARVEY...WHICH IS VERY\r\nNEAR ROATAN ACCORDING TO A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ON THAT ISLAND.\r\nSINCE THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE STRUCTURE WHEN\r\nTHE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION WAS INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 50 KT.  ANOTHER RECON\r\nMISSION IS SCHEDULED TO REACH HARVEY AROUND 1200 UTC.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE ROATAN OBSERVATIONS...HARVEY MAY HAVE PICKED UP SOME\r\nSPEED...AND ITS INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275/10.  THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE STEERING HARVEY ON A NEARLY CONSTANT WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR THE GFS...\r\nECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE HARVEY REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE LATER\r\nTODAY.  THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE THE HIGHEST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND INDICATE THAT HARVEY COULD BE JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AT 12 HOURS.  SINCE LANDFALL ON THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK WOULD BE WITHIN THE 12 TO 18 HOUR PERIOD...IT IS\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE THAT HARVEY COULD BECOME A HURRICANE JUST BEFORE\r\nMOVING INLAND ACROSS THE COAST OF BELIZE EVEN THOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY\r\nSHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN FACT...THERE IS A 1 IN 3 CHANCE\r\nOF THAT OCCURRING...BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST AND RECENT NHC\r\nINTENSITY ERRORS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER HARVEY MOVES\r\nINLAND...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AND BEYOND\r\nFOLLOWS THE DECAY OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS.  DISSIPATION IS NOW\r\nEXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA\r\nHAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nALONG THE GUATEMALAN COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 16.4N  86.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 16.5N  87.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 16.7N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 16.9N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 17.2N  94.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT HARVEY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS....WITH THE INTENSITY REMAINING NEAR 50 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED 61-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR WINDS IN THE 45-50 KT RANGE. \r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE ON THE LAST FIX WAS NEAR 998 MB.  DATA FROM\r\nTHE RADAR AT BELIZE CITY SHOWS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT THERE IS NO CLOSED EYEWALL APPARENT AT\r\nTHIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER JOGGED TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...A\r\nMORE WESTWARD MOTION HAS RESUMED AND THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS 280/10.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STEER IT GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO BELIZE DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER UNTIL\r\nTHE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nHARVEY HAS AT BEST 4-8 HOURS LEFT TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL. \r\nWHILE THE CHANCES OF THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE\r\nDIMINISHING...THE INNER WIND CORE IS SMALL AND THUS A 10-15 KT\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nAFTER LANDFALL...EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 16.8N  87.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 17.0N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 17.3N  91.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 17.6N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 17.7N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n400 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HARVEY MADE LANDFALL NEAR DANGRIGA TOWN BELIZE NEAR\r\n1800 UTC WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT.  JUST BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED\r\n63-KT WINDS AT 850 MB AND AN ATTEMPT TO FORM AN EYEWALL.  SINCE\r\nLANDFALL...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW LESS\r\nCURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS STRONG.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 45\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HARVEY\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nHARVEY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES BELIZE AND GUATEMALA AND\r\nMOVES INTO MEXICO...AND IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 17.2N  88.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 17.4N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 17.7N  92.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 17.9N  94.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Harvey","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NORTHERN\r\nGUATEMALA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE COVERAGE OF COLD CONVECTIVE\r\nTOPS HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER...AND ON THAT BASIS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.  HARVEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY\r\nSPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/13.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF HARVEY WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH HARVEY HAS WEAKENED...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY AND\r\nPOTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND\r\nEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 17.4N  90.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 17.7N  92.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 17.9N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n400 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES WERE OBSERVED IN A 0156 UTC TRMM OVERPASS AND\r\nSUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN MOVING BRISKLY\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO\r\nWITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 280/13.  THE COVERAGE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD TREND...BUT THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST TO THE WEST OF A REMAINING\r\nCLUSTER ALONG THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH SOME DECELERATION...UNTIL IT\r\nDISSIPATES BY 36 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO..ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHEST NORTH OF THE MODELS\r\nAND BRIEFLY MOVES HARVEY OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE\r\nBETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL TV15...AND IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  IF THE CENTER\r\nWAS TO MOVE OVER WATER AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF...IT WOULD LIKELY NOT\r\nBE OFFSHORE LONG ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...\r\nAND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 17.7N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 18.1N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 18.3N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ACCOMPANYING HARVEY HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS\r\nFAIRLY WELL DEFINED AND IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL\r\nCLUSTER OF REMAINING CONVECTION. THE CENTER OF HARVEY SEEMS TO HAVE\r\nAVOIDED THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...\r\nWHICH MAY HAVE ALLOWED IT TO SURVIVE LONGER.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 280/12. HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HARVEY OVER\r\nLAND...THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS ARE THE FARTHEST NORTH AND SUGGEST A\r\nSLIM CHANCE THAT THE CENTER COULD BRIEFLY PASS OVER THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. EVEN IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH HARVEY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nFLASH FLOODING...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 17.7N  92.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 18.1N  94.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 18.3N  95.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n400 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HARVEY HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN\r\nBAY OF CAMPECHE...FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON CONTINUITY.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS BACK\r\nOVER VERY WARM WATERS AND IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...\r\nTHERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HARVEY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12.  HARVEY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.  THE TRACK\r\nSHOULD BEND A BIT MORE TO LEFT BEFORE REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AS HARVEY MOVES UNDERNEATH A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD PRIMARILY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION\r\nAND REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHIS FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nFOR A SMALL PORTION OF MEXICAN COAST BORDERING THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 18.6N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 19.0N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 19.3N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 19.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n\r\nHARVEY HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASING MAINLY TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND A SHIP REPORTED 25 KT WINDS ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...HARVEY ONLY\r\nHAS A SHORT TIME OVER WATER SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE\r\nRUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN MEXICO IN A LITTLE\r\nOVER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HARVEY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. \r\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  A TURN\r\nTO THE WEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY HAS ALREADY MOVED INLAND\r\nOVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE THE\r\nMAIN HAZARD.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY INDICATE THAT WIND\r\nGUSTS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT LAGUNA\r\nVERDE IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 19.0N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 19.3N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 19.5N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Harvey","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n400 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011\r\n \r\nEARLIER OVERNIGHT...AN AUTOMATED STATION IN ALVARADO...WITHIN THE\r\nMEXICAN STATE OF VERACRUZ...REPORTED WINDS VEERING FROM THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF\r\n20 KT AND A GUST TO 30 KT.  BASED ON THIS OBSERVATION AND EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT HARVEY TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nAND MOVED INLAND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF ALVARADO BETWEEN 0000 AND\r\n0300 UTC.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 255/9...ALTHOUGH\r\nIT COULD BE A LITTLE FASTER...AND HARVEY IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN\r\nON THIS HEADING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY.  \r\n\r\nCLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN\r\nAND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...HARVEY SHOULD WEAKEN NOW THAT IT IS OVER\r\nLAND...AND IT COULD ULTIMATELY DISSIPATE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT\r\nOVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND\r\nMUDSLIDES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO EVEN IF THE CENTER OF HARVEY DISSIPATES LATER\r\nTODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 18.4N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 18.2N  96.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Harvey","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF HARVEY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082011\r\n1000 AM CDT MON AUG 22 2011\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT HARVEY HAS\r\nDISSIPATED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. A\r\nLARGE PLUME OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF\r\nHARVEY WILL SPREAD FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE MOISTURE...IN COMBINATION WITH LOCAL\r\nOROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY\r\nRAINS OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLASH\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 18.1N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 18.1N  98.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATED\r\n 24H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/WROE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-20 23:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n700 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nTROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FOUND A SMALL LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST AND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1006 MB.  THE PLANE ALSO MEASURED A\r\nMAXIMUM WIND OF 53 KT AT 1400 FT AND BELIEVABLE WINDS OF ABOUT \r\n45 KT FROM THE SFMR.  THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.\r\n \r\nA ROUGH ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/19.  A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STEER IRENE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT TWO\r\nOR THREE DAYS.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THAT TIME AND CAUSE\r\nIRENE TO GRADUALLY DECELERATE.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nON A TRACK GENERALLY IN THE DIRECTION OF HISPANIOLA TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nPUERTO RICO.  THEREAFTER...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE.  THIS COULD ALLOW IRENE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nMODELS BEGIN TO SPREAD OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSHOW ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS TO BRING THE STORM NORTH OF CUBA...WHILE\r\nTHE UKMET AND THE CANADIAN HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING IN PLACE TO KEEP THE\r\nSTORM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE NHC FORECAST WILL SPLIT THOSE TWO\r\nIDEAS AND LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL VORTEX IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGES AND IT WILL\r\nPROBABLY TAKE SOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER...IRENE IS MOVING\r\nOVER RATHER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR EXPECTED.   MOST OF THE\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE STORM TO A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING\r\nHISPANIOLA...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND IS RATHER\r\nCHALLENGING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BE QUITE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING IF IRENE AVOIDS SIGNIFICANT LAND\r\nINTERACTION.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR MANY OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND\r\nPUERTO RICO.  \r\n\r\nNOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD 800 PM\r\nAST/0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY.  THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL\r\nBE THE FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE ISSUED AT 1100 PM AST/0300 UTC. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2300Z 14.9N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 15.4N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 16.1N  64.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 16.7N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 17.5N  69.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 19.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 21.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 24.0N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE GUADELOUPE RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS BANDING\r\nALONG WITH A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL VORTEX...WHICH IS ALSO VISIBLE IN\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KT AND THE\r\nNEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY THROUGH IRENE\r\nAROUND 1200 UTC.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 280/19.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IRENE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECELERATION.  AFTER THAT TIME...A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOW MUCH\r\nOF A WEAKNESS IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE...HOWEVER...WITH A VARIETY OF\r\nMODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING LARGE TRACK SPREAD AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE MODELS...SUCH AS THE\r\nUKMET...SHOW MORE OF AN EMPHASIS ON A SECOND TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nSOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND DO NOT SHOW THE FIRST TROUGH AFFECTING\r\nIRENE MUCH.  THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST IN THE\r\nLATER PERIODS...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO SHIFT THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIN THAT DIRECTION.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS\r\nA GOOD TIME TO REMIND USERS THAT THE AVERAGE DAY 4 AND 5 NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST ERRORS ARE 200 TO 250 MILES.  \r\n\r\nWITH THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE ON MICROWAVE...STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY\r\nAS THE STORM TRAVERSES VERY WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS.  ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nDURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION OCCURS WITH\r\nHISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THE CURRENT TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nSPINE OF CUBA BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING EXPECTED\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD AFTER IRENE MOVES AWAY FROM LAND. IT IS\r\nWORTH NOTING THAT THE MODELS THAT SHOW LESS LAND INTERACTION...SUCH\r\nAS THE GFDL OR HWRF...HAVE IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND\r\nTHAT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM MOVES ON\r\nTHE FAR LEFT OR RIGHT SIDE OF THE FORECAST CONE AND AVOIDS\r\nSIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. OVERALL...GIVEN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. \r\n\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PUERTO RICO TOMORROW IF\r\nTHERE IS A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nOF NOTE...THIS IS THE THIRD EARLIEST TO HAVE NINE NAMED STORMS FORM\r\nIN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 2005 AND 1936.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 15.3N  59.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 16.0N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 16.6N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 17.2N  68.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 18.0N  70.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 19.5N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 21.5N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/0000Z 24.5N  80.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE INDICATE THAT IRENE\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE CENTER REDEVELOPED\r\nABOUT 60 NMI FARTHER NORTH INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A\r\nNARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN ENTRAINED INTO THE NORTHERN AND\r\nWESTERN QUADRANTS...WHICH HAS ERODED SOME OF THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB. THE NEXT HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER IRENE WILL BE 1200 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/18 DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION. 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA FROM THE\r\nNORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND BERMUDA INDICATE A FAIRLY STOUT\r\nDEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXISTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nIRENE. THE RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...FLORIDA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD\r\nALLOW IRENE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA AND\r\nEMERGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO\r\nEXCEPT FOR THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. THOSE LATTER TWO MODELS KEEP\r\nIRENE ON A WESTERLY TRACK SOUTH OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN\r\nCHANNEL...DESPITE THEIR DEVELOPING A SIMILAR BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nAXIS OVER FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT\r\nTHIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...\r\nAND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF LOW\r\nSHEAR AND A MID-OCEANIC TROUGH TO THE EAST ACTING AS A MASS SINK\r\nFOR THE OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH INTERACTION IRENE HAS\r\nWITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND WHAT THE INNER CORE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE BECOMES AFTER IT EMERGES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF\r\nCUBA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. ONCE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...HOWEVER...\r\nIRENE WILL HAVE AT LEAST 24 HOURS OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER IN\r\nTHE ATLANTIC TO TAP INTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO LAND EFFECTS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 16.4N  61.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 17.0N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 17.5N  66.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 18.0N  69.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 18.6N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 20.3N  75.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 22.8N  78.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  26/0600Z 26.1N  80.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF IRENE IS CHARACTERIZED BY WELL-DEFINED DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE STORM\r\nSTILL LACKS MUCH DEEP CONVECTION...OR STRONG WINDS...OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 53 KT SO FAR...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 45\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SINCE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER WARM WATERS...INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY AND IRENE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT REACHES HISPANIOLA.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO MORE THAN THE\r\nUSUAL LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...AS IT DEPENDS VERY MUCH ON HOW IRENE\r\nWILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER MOVES MORE OVER\r\nTHE WATER THAN INDICATED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IRENE WILL\r\nLIKELY BECOME STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/17...BY THE FLOW\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF TROUGHS ARE FORECAST\r\nTO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST U.S.\r\nCOAST...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A\r\nFAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT\r\nDAYS 4 TO 5. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFDL MODEL TAKES IRENE TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE HWRF MODEL TAKES IT THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS IN FLORIDA ARE ADVISED NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK BECAUSE OF THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES\r\nIN LONGER-RANGE FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 17.0N  63.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 17.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 18.2N  68.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 18.9N  70.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 19.6N  73.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 21.5N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 24.0N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 27.0N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nIRENE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...WITH CURVED BANDS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH OBSERVATIONS\r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS.\r\nANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE IRENE\r\nAROUND 0000 UTC.  WITH A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE STORM...THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE LAND\r\nINTERACTION.  IF IRENE MOVES OVER MORE OF HISPANIOLA OR OVER PARTS\r\nOF EASTERN CUBA IT WILL LIKELY BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE...HOWEVER IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP MOVING TO THE NORTH OF BOTH OF\r\nTHOSE LAND MASSES IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN EXPECTED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS NOW NEAR 285/15.  IRENE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR 1 TO 2 DAYS\r\nWHICH WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO...AND NEAR OR\r\nOVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A COUPLE OF\r\nTROUGHS ARE FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN TO THE RIGHT AROUND\r\nDAY 3.  SEVERAL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS AND SO\r\nHAS THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT\r\nDAYS 4 TO 5 SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE\r\nFORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES RESPECTIVELY.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 17.7N  64.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 18.2N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 18.9N  69.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 19.6N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 20.3N  73.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 22.7N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 25.5N  79.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 28.5N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AS THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND RADIAL\r\nVELOCITIES HAVE INCREASED ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. THERE HAS\r\nALSO BEEN A MARKED INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO\r\n993 MB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT BASED ON A PEAK\r\nBELIEVABLE SFMR VALUE OF 61 KT AND AN EXPANDING AREA OF 65 TO 70 KT\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES AT 5500 TO 6000 FEET ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION...SO THE INTENSITY OF IRENE WILL LARGELY BE\r\nDETERMINED BY HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH LAND IN THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE NEXT\r\nFEW HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER\r\nPUERTO RICO. THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS...AND SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IF IRENE MOVES\r\nNORTH OF HISPANIOLA...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE IN\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS...OR WEAKER THAN FORECAST IF IT MOVES OVER MORE OF\r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND. BEYOND 48 HOURS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS NEAR THE\r\nBAHAMAS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS VERY HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD\r\nDUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION IN THE SHORT TERM.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON\r\nRADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS...\r\nTHE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT\r\n13 KNOTS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A LONGWAVE\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE TROUGH\r\nBEGINS TO LIFT OUT AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT LEAVES A\r\nPRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nTHE BAHAMAS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL\r\nAND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN\r\nIN THE MODEL SUITE.  FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE\r\nSHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE\r\nHURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.  \r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE\r\nERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 17.9N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 18.6N  67.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 19.4N  70.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 20.1N  72.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 20.9N  73.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 23.5N  77.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 26.5N  79.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 30.0N  81.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nDESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO\r\nRICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA\r\nTERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER\r\nVELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT \r\nAT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST\r\n65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE\r\nALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE\r\nDATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011\r\nATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nTRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF ABOUT 290/10 KT. UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nAT 00Z INDICATE 500 MB HEIGHTS HAVE NOT CHANGED AT BERMUDA IN THE\r\nPAST 24 HOURS...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF IRENE REMAINS QUITE STRONG. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE LITTLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP\r\nIRENE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION OFF THE\r\nNORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND JUST SKIRTING THE\r\nNORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA LATER TODAY AND ON TUESDAY. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON THE SPECIFICS OF HOW LARGE A\r\nBREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA\r\nAND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AT 72 HOUR AND BEYOND...WHICH WILL ALLOW\r\nIRENE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODELS\r\nARE THE RIGHTMOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND KEEP IRENE\r\nWELL EAST OF FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND THE GFDL MODELS ARE\r\nTHE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS AND TAKE IRENE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF\r\nFLORIDA. THE GFS AND THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND TAKE IRENE THROUGH THE\r\nBAHAMAS AND JUST OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY IS\r\nTHAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOW\r\nOF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TO\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPS\r\nAND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE A\r\nLITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.\r\n\r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH\r\nOR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT\r\n1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO\r\nEXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH\r\nIRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT\r\nWOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT\r\nSOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING.\r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 TO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE\r\nERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 18.4N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 18.9N  68.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 19.7N  70.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 20.4N  72.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 21.3N  74.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 24.0N  77.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 27.0N  79.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 30.9N  81.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE THAT IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. HOWEVER THE WINDS WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS AROUND 988 MB IN THE LAST\r\nCENTER DROPSONDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70\r\nKNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND\r\nTHE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A\r\nCATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND IN\r\nFACT...EVEN GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. IRENE IS BECOMING\r\nA LARGE CYCLONE...AND BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS EXTEND 160 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. IRENE\r\nIS CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS\r\nFORCING THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. HOWEVER...MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT A LARGE UPPER TROUGH\r\nALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL INDUCE A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nWITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...BUT\r\nSTILL REMAINS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nTOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE CURRENT GUIDANCE LESSENS THE THREAT\r\nTO SOUTH FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nDO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4\r\nTO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE\r\nFORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 19.2N  67.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 19.9N  69.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 20.5N  71.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 21.2N  73.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 22.0N  75.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 25.0N  77.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 28.5N  79.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 32.5N  80.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE LAST AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AROUND 1700\r\nUTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND THE WINDS\r\nHAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE DAY. SINCE THEN...HIGH RESOLUTION\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND A\r\nCLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT IRENE\r\nCOULD BE SLOWLY INTENSIFYING. HOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 4.0\r\nAND 4.5 WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KNOTS.\r\nANOTHER PLANE WILL CHECK THE HURRICANE AROUND 0000 UTC TONIGHT.\r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DISRUPTION OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION BY\r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...WHICH PROBABLY WILL SLOW DOWN THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE\r\nINGREDIENTS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR IRENE TO BECOME A STRONG\r\nCATEGORY 2 OR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE\r\nWIND SCALE AS IRENE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN\r\nBAHAMAS. IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS INSIST\r\nON MAKING IRENE A LARGE AND STRONG HURRICANE WITH MINIMUM PRESSURES\r\nAROUND 945 MB AND 952 MB...RESPECTIVELY.  \r\n\r\nIRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11\r\nKNOTS. CURRENTLY...THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE IS BEING CONTROLLED\r\nBY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FUTURE\r\nTRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL\r\nINDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS\r\nMORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...\r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAVE NOW FOLLOWED THE LEAD OF THE\r\nECMWF MODEL. THE GUIDANCE IS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN TURNING\r\nIRENE NORTHWARD ALONG 78 OR 79 DEGREES LONGITUDE. ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nSTILL TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN...THE GUIDANCE TREND CONTINUES TO\r\nLESSENS THE THREAT TO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT INCREASES THE THREAT TO THE\r\nCAROLINAS. \r\n \r\nDO NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4\r\nTO 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST\r\nTIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 19.5N  68.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 20.1N  70.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 20.8N  72.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 21.5N  74.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 23.0N  75.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 26.0N  78.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 29.5N  79.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 34.0N  79.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-23 00:30:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n830 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND\r\nMAXIMUM OF 106 KT ON ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF IRENE.\r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 85 KT.\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...ALTHOUGH NO EYE IS VISIBLE YET\r\nIN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. HOWEVER...AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT ON\r\nTHE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR AND WAS ALSO SEEN IN A 2230 UTC SSMIS\r\nPASS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 981 MB BASED ON A\r\nDROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF 982 MB WITH 10 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.\r\nGIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD BY\r\n15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A SMALLER UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AT 48 AND\r\n72 HOURS. ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE\r\nNEW FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY\r\nAS IT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND\r\nCAICOS ISLANDS. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST ON THIS SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0030Z 19.7N  68.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 20.1N  70.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 20.8N  72.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 21.5N  74.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 23.0N  75.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 26.0N  78.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 29.5N  79.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 34.0N  79.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER DEEPENING QUICKLY EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE INTENSITY OF\r\nIRENE APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO 980 MB ...AND MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nHAVE NOT INCREASED SINCE THE EARLIER MAXIMUM OF 106 KT AT 850 MB.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nOVERALL THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...\r\nWITH A LARGE CDO FORMING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER AND THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTING A CLOSED EYEWALL.  SOUTHERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 10\r\nKT IS PRESENT OVER IRENE ACCORDING TO SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS SPECIAL ADVISORY AND SHOWS\r\nIRENE BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS AND REACHING A\r\nPEAK OF 115 KT IN 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED\r\nA BIT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/10. OVERALL THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED...AS IRENE WILL CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nPERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH LOCATED EAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL LIFT OUT WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS...LEAVING A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE\r\nBAHAMAS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nTRACK OF IRENE APPEARS TO BE SENSITIVE TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE\r\nOF SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED\r\nSTATES/CANADIAN BORDER. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME RUN-TO-RUN\r\nVARIABILITY IN HOW MUCH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL AMPLIFY AND DEEPEN\r\nTHE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH WILL BE\r\nCRITICAL TO HOW SOON IRENE TURNS NORTHWARD OR EVEN EAST OF DUE\r\nNORTH AT DAYS 4 AND 5. OVERALL...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE\r\nHAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE SLIGHT\r\nRIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION AND A SLIGHT WESTWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS RESULTS IN ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO\r\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IS A SLOWER FORWARD \r\nSPEED AT THE END OF THE PERIOD FOLLOWING THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nTHAT KEEPS THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE AT DAY 5.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR\r\nAVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nOF NOTE...SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHTS FROM THE NOAA G-IV AND AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE C-130 AIRCRAFT PROVIDED NUMEROUS DROPSONDES FOR\r\nASSIMILATION INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL CYCLE.  THIS SHOULD IMPROVE\r\nTHE ANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND AND UPSTREAM OF IRENE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 19.9N  69.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 20.4N  70.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 21.1N  72.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 22.2N  74.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 23.5N  75.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 26.5N  78.0W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 30.0N  79.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 33.5N  78.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011\r\n \r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH ALL OF THE AIRCRAFT FIXES SINCE IRENE MOVED OFF\r\nTHE COAST OF PUERTO RICO MORE THAN 18 HOURS AGO YIELDS A LONG TERM\r\nMOTION OF 295/10 KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE\r\n23/00Z G-IV JET AIRCRAFT AND AIR FORCE C-130 DROPSONDE DATA APPEAR\r\nTO HAVE SETTLED DOWN THE MODELS...AND THERE IS CONSIDERABLY LESS\r\nDIFFERENCE AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW. THE OVERWHELMING\r\nCONSENSUS IS THAT IRENE WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS AND THEN MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH A DEVELOPING BREAK IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nLIES VERY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER RECON FLIGHT INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAD ONLY FALLEN BY 2\r\nMB DOWN TO 978 MB...AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS A RESULT...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\nIRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS NEAR 30C. THAT COMBINATION...ALONG WITH\r\nEXPANDING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...SHOULD ALLOW FOR IRENE TO\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE\r\nCLEARS THE EFFECTS OF HISPANIOLA...AND PROBABLY MAINTAIN MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE 5-DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL MODEL INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS...AND CONVERSION OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES DEPICTED IN THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII WERE EXPANDED BASED ON A BLEND OF RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS...SFMR WINDS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nIRENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGER THAN AVERAGE HURRICANE. IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE THE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR\r\nAVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE 200 AND 250 MILES...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 20.3N  70.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 20.9N  71.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 21.7N  73.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 22.9N  74.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 24.3N  76.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 28.0N  78.0W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 31.5N  78.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 35.0N  78.0W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A HINT OF AN EYE... WHILE\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW AN EYEWALL THAT IS OPEN TO THE SOUTH.\r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 77\r\nAND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 85 KT. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE IRENE THIS MORNING HAD ISSUES WITH THE ON-BOARD RADAR.\r\nTHIS REQUIRED A CHANGE IN AIRCRAFT AND THE NEW PLANE JUST PASSED\r\nTHROUGH THE CENTER...REPORTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB...ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME AS DURING THE PREVIOUS MISSION.\r\n \r\nA SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS\r\nSHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE\r\nIRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS\r\nTHE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW IRENE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD IRENE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nINCREASES BY DAY THREE...RANGING FROM THE COASTAL MID-ATLANTIC\r\nSTATES TO WELL OFFSHORE...WITH THE UKMET ALONG THE LEFT SIDE AND\r\nTHE GFS/NOGAPS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE\r\nUPDATED TRACK IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF AND IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMIND USERS NOT TO FOCUS\r\nON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SINCE\r\nTHE MOST RECENT 5-YEAR AVERAGE ERRORS AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES ARE\r\n200 AND 250 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 20.5N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 21.3N  72.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 22.3N  73.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 23.6N  75.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 25.3N  76.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 29.2N  77.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 33.0N  77.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 37.5N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF IRENE WAS MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nEARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS RECENTLY BECOME OBSCURED.  THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND A MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 75 KT. IT\r\nHAS BEEN NEARLY 24 HOURS SINCE THE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED WINDS THAT\r\nSUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN REDUCED TO 80 KT.  THE PRESSURE DROPPED ABOUT A MILLIBAR\r\nON EACH SUCCESSIVE FIX AND WAS DOWN TO 976 MB ON THE LASS PASS\r\nAROUND 1830 UTC.  ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE IRENE THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS NOT IDEAL FOR\r\nRAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST\r\n24 HOURS DUE TO THE LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. AFTER THAT...IT IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND BRINGS IRENE TO MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN 36 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL/HWRF\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 295/8 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS TIME AND THERE\r\nIS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT...\r\nIRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE\r\nATLANTIC RIDGE. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL...SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A WEAK TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nBEHIND THE HURRICANE. THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD AT 72 AND 96 HOURS BUT THE NEW 5-DAY POINT IS STILL ALONG\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nMODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. USERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST\r\nERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 20.9N  71.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 21.5N  72.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 22.7N  74.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 24.2N  75.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 26.1N  76.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 30.0N  77.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 34.0N  76.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 39.0N  74.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011\r\n \r\nIT IS FORTUNATE THAT WE HAVE A NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET SAMPLING THE\r\nENVIRONMENT OF IRENE AND TWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE FROM\r\nNOAA AND THE OTHER FROM THE AIR FORCE...IN THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE\r\nTONIGHT. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED WITH A RAGGED EYE\r\nEMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION AND A WELL ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW.  THIS\r\nHAS RESULTED IN THE INCREASE OF BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED FROM BOTH PLANES HAS COME\r\nDOWN TO 969 MB AND THE MAX FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 101\r\nKNOTS. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THE SFMR INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE WINDS\r\nHAVE NOT INCREASED YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80\r\nKNOTS.  IRENE WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATERS AND ALTHOUGH THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THE\r\nOVERALL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nA MAJOR HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN ABOUT A\r\nDAY. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS STILL\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOW PACE OF 8 KNOTS. SINCE\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN...THERE IS NO REASON TO MODIFY THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WHICH BRINGS THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nBAHAMAS...AND THEN NORTHWARD PARALLELING THE UNITED STATES\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST AND VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE OUTER BANKS. IRENE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID\r\nATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT\r\nAND EVEN THE STUBBORN GFDL WHICH PREVIOUSLY INSISTED ON BRINGING\r\nIRENE TOWARD FLORIDA HAS NOW SHIFTED EASTWARD AND HAS JOINED THE\r\nOTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST EVEN MORE.\r\n\r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED THAT LARGE FORECAST ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE\r\nLONGER LEAD TIMES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 21.3N  72.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 22.0N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 23.5N  75.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 27.5N  77.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 31.0N  77.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 36.0N  76.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 40.5N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nWAS JUST AFTER 0500 UTC...AND THEY FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAD DROPPED TO 966 MB.  THEY ALSO MEASURED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 92 KT OUTBOUND IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  IT IS LIKELY THAT\r\nHIGHER WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS..THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF\r\nIRENE HAS BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 100 KT.  COMBINING THE ABOVE INFORMATION...THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ANOTHER\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200 UTC TO MEASURE THE\r\nINTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE AREA...THIS SHEAR\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO PREVENT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND IT SEEMS\r\nHIGHLY LIKELY THAT IRENE WILL INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATER\r\nTODAY.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH COULD OCCUR IN 1 TO 2 DAYS\r\nDUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS.  IN FACT...THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE\r\nTECHNIQUE SHOWS A CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL\r\nPROBABILITY OF SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS\r\nAND LIES BETWEEN THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE ANIMATION AND CENTER FIXES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF IRENE HAS\r\nBEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND NORTHWEST HEADING OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES YIELDS A MORE\r\nREPRESENTATIVE MOTION OF ABOUT 295/8.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST FEW ADVISORIES.  OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS IT MOVES THROUGH A\r\nPRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AROUND 72 HOURS...A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nINDUCE AT LEAST A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION AFTERWARDS.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nHAS...AGAIN...SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT SUBSTANTIALLY DIFFERENT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED THAT SIGNIFICANT ERRORS ARE POSSIBLE WITH\r\nFORECASTS AT LONGER LEAD TIMES...SO ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE\r\nEXACT FORECAST POSITIONS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 21.6N  72.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 22.5N  74.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 24.1N  75.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 25.8N  76.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 27.7N  77.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 32.0N  76.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 36.5N  75.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 42.0N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING.  THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nMORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS.  BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...AND THIS SUPPORTED THE\r\nUPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME.  SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB.  THE\r\nPRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS\r\nFAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE\r\nTO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS.  THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL\r\nFORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE\r\nTHE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3\r\nDAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT\r\nIRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT\r\nLAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE\r\nAND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL\r\nMODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS\r\nAT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON\r\nSPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT\r\nPROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND\r\n120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 22.4N  73.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 23.4N  74.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 25.1N  76.1W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 27.2N  76.9W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 29.3N  77.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 33.2N  76.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 38.5N  73.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 45.0N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAS EXPANDED NEAR THE EYEWALL AND NOW SOLIDLY SURROUNDS\r\nTHE EYE.  BEFORE DEPARTING IRENE...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 116 KT\r\nIN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 954 MB.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n105 KT.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE UW-CIMMS\r\nOBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMATION TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO\r\nPREDICT A HIGH CHANCE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO. IN FACT...A RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED SOME EVIDENCE\r\nOF A SECONDARY EYEWALL. THESE EYEWALL CYCLES CAN PRODUCE HARD TO\r\nPREDICT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY A\r\nLEVELING OFF OF THE INTENSITY. IN 3-4 DAYS....INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE...OR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT NEARS NEW\r\nENGLAND. \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310/10 KT. IRENE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THROUGH A\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE\r\nOF THE RIDGE.  BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS...THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY\r\nAS TO WHETHER IRENE TURNS BACK TOWARD THE NORTH AHEAD OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AT THAT\r\nTIME.  THE NEW ECMWF SHOWS MUCH MORE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH...\r\nWHICH HAS RESULTED IN ITS TRACK SHIFTING OVER 100 MILES TO THE\r\nWEST...AND THIS SKILLFUL LONG-RANGE MODEL NOW DEFINES THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL\r\nHURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACKS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 23.1N  74.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 24.3N  75.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 26.1N  76.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 28.2N  77.3W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 30.1N  77.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 34.3N  75.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 39.5N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 47.0N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n952 MB...BUT THE MAXIMUM WIND REPORTED SO FAR WAS 99 KNOTS AT\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL. THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 105 KNOTS. I WILL WAIT FOR THE PLANE TO\r\nFINISH SAMPLING THE HURRICANE BEFORE REDUCING THE WINDS A LITTLE\r\nBIT...IF NECESSARY. BY INSPECTING AN EARLIER TRMM PASS FROM 2216\r\nUTC...AND AND SSMIS AT 0024 UTC...ONE CAN OBSERVE CONCENTRIC\r\nCONVECTIVE RINGS SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS\r\nOCCURRING. THESE TWO EYEWALLS WERE ALSO REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE. THIS EYEWALL CYCLE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE TREND\r\nIS FOR IRENE TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nIN 2 TO 3 DAYS....IRENE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE\r\nHURRICANE ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nSSTS. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...\r\nOR EVEN GROW IN SIZE...AS IT MOVES NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NEAR OR OVER SOME OF THE\r\nBAHAMAS RESULTING IS SOME WOBBLING. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LARGE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES IS MATERIALIZING AS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\nTHIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE IRENE TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE NORTH WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED VERY\r\nLITTLE...AND PERHAPS THE ONLY DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE GFS SHIFTED 30\r\nN MI TO THE WEST...TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION DURING THE LAST\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS DOES NOT RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE IRENE IS A LARGE CYCLONE...TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE\r\nWATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE\r\nCAROLINAS EARLY THURSDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 23.8N  75.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 27.5N  77.3W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 29.5N  77.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 31.5N  77.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 36.0N  75.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 42.5N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 50.0N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGO\r\nFOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB. \r\nHOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA\r\nSUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS\r\nPROBABLY GENEROUS.  IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS\r\nWAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  AFTER A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...SO A STEADY DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT\r\nWILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN.  GIVEN THE LIMITATIONS IN\r\nOUR ABILITY TO PREDICT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO JUST HOW STRONG IRENE WILL BE WHEN IT NEARS THE\r\nEASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT 315/10.  THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  IRENE SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS LIKELY TO TURN THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE BYPASSING IRENE AND THE\r\nHURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AND SLOW-MOVING\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nSTEERING PATTERN SHOULD PREVENT IRENE FROM MOVING WELL OFFSHORE OF\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED VERY SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS BRACKETED\r\nBY THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL ON THE EAST AND THE GFDL MODEL ON THE\r\nWEST.\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW NECESSARY FOR A PORTION\r\nOF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 24.6N  76.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 26.1N  77.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 28.2N  77.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 30.4N  77.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 32.3N  77.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 36.3N  75.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 42.5N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/0600Z 51.0N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n\r\nIT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE HURRICANE HAS GONE\r\nTHROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT. ALTHOUGH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND\r\nIS LARGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...MICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA HAVE\r\nNOT BEEN VERY CONCLUSIVE. RECENT DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY EVIDENCE OF A\r\nSECONDARY EYEWALL AT THIS TIME. THE EYE IS A LITTLE MORE EVIDENT IN\r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IS NOT AS CLEAR AS IT\r\nWAS YESTERDAY MORNING. THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 112 KT AND SFMR WINDS OF 90 KT...WHICH ROUGHLY\r\nSUPPORT THE 100-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A\r\nNORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES\r\nTHROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN\r\nIRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH\r\nIS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND\r\nA BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP\r\nTHE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW\r\nFORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES\r\nEAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.\r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE\r\nSHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO\r\nPREDICT.  AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS.  HOWEVER...\r\nSINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT\r\nWILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 25.9N  76.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 27.5N  77.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 29.5N  77.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 31.4N  77.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 33.3N  77.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 37.8N  75.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 45.0N  71.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/1200Z 54.0N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF IRENE MOVED OVER ABACO ISLAND EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AN\r\nAUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON THE ISLAND MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 950.4 MB AROUND 1700 UTC. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS AFTERNOON HAS REPORTED A 700 MB\r\nPEAK-FLIGHT WIND OF 99 KT. ALTHOUGH RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA DO NOT\r\nQUITE SUPPORT THE 100-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY...WE WILL HOLD THE\r\nINTENSITY FOR A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE IF THE AIRCRAFT FINDS HIGHER\r\nWINDS.\r\n\r\nIRENE CONTINUES MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. IRENE IS FORECAST\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD BY EARLY FRIDAY AS IT MOVES THROUGH A BREAK IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 24 HOURS...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE ON A HEADING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A TROUGH\r\nBYPASSES THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAVE THE IRENE IN A\r\nSTEERING PATTERN THAT SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON THAT GENERAL\r\nHEADING AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OR OVER MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION...AND THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS INCREASING. THE NEW TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED WESTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE. IT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS. SINCE\r\nIRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE\r\nEXACT TRACK OF IRENE...AS SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT WELL\r\nAWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME TIME FOR IRENE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER WARM WATER AND THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nUPDATED FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LOWER INTENSITY OVER\r\nTHE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING PROCESS.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...\r\nIT WILL PROBABLY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 27.0N  77.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 28.7N  77.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 30.6N  77.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 32.5N  77.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 34.5N  76.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 39.8N  74.6W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 48.5N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  30/1800Z 56.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n \r\nTWO HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...ONE AIR FORCE AND ONE NOAA...ARE\r\nAGAIN TONIGHT SUPPLYING VERY VALUABLE METEOROLOGICAL DATA TO THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. BOTH PLANES INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING AND IS NOW NEAR 942 MB...BUT THE\r\nWINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED YET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 100\r\nKNOTS AT THIS TIME. IRENE HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nBAHAMAS AND IS NOW OVER OPEN WATERS. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER DEFINED ON SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE EYEWALL IS CONTRACTING. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND\r\nTHE WARM WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE...SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAPPROACH THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA A POWERFUL HURRICANE. IN\r\nFACT...THE HIGH RESOLUTION ECMWF SHOWS A VERY INTENSE CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHING THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRENE IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nALREADY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS READY TO\r\nINTERACT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE THE APPROACHING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. IRENE HAS NOWHERE TO GO BUT NORTHWARD WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER THE CENTER CROSSES OR\r\nPASSES NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN\r\nVERY CONSISTENT AND CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...GIVING NO\r\nREASON TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST...IT IS NOT NECESSARY TO ADJUST THE U.S.\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 28.3N  77.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 30.0N  77.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 31.8N  77.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 33.7N  77.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 36.0N  76.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 42.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 51.0N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/0000Z 58.0N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS NOT QUITE AT MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 109 KT ABOUT 75 N MI\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS\r\nREPORTED FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 87\r\nKT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED TO 95\r\nKT...WHICH IS ALSO BETWEEN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102\r\nKT FROM TAFB ANND 90 KT FROM SAB. THE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT A\r\n20 N MI WIDE EYE IS PRESENT AND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS\r\nNEAR 942 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/12. IRENE IS MOVING THROUGH A WEAKNESS\r\nAT THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD RECURVE\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THE FIRST 24\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR IRENE TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH\r\nCAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 36 HR...THEN PASS NEAR THE COAST OF\r\nTHE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN NEW ENGLAND IN\r\nROUGHLY 60 HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY... AND WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THIS SHOULD BE CONSIDERED A\r\nNOISE-LEVEL CHANGE. AFTER LANDFALL... IRENE SHOULD MERGE WITH THE\r\nCORE OF THE WESTERLIES AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND ANALSYES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS ENCOUNTERING LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT\r\nCYCLONE STRUCTURE AND DRY AIR ADVECTING TOWARD THE HURRICANE IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING....\r\nAND INDEED THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH \r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS\r\nCURRENTLY STRONG...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK ARE 28-29C.  THIS SUGGESTS SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE.  IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE CATEGORY 2/3\r\nBOUNDARY WHEN IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS...AND\r\nSLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT. AFTER MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND...IRENE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nIRENE REMAINS A VERY LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE WIND RADII HAVE\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 29.3N  77.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 31.0N  77.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 33.1N  76.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 35.3N  76.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 37.8N  75.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 45.0N  70.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 53.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/0600Z 58.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nSUGGEST THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS SLIGHTLY LOWER.  ALTHOUGH PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB WERE 111 KT...SFMR AND DROPSONDE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT A HIGHER-THAN-TYPICAL REDUCTION OF THE\r\nWIND FROM FLIGHT-LEVEL TO THE SURFACE APPLIES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 90 KT.  GIVEN THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE\r\nAND PREDICTED ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER PASSING NORTH\r\nCAROLINA...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE GRADUALLY DECREASING.  THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES NEAR THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE\r\nAND DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE\r\nDAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS\r\nALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW\r\nENGLAND.\r\n \r\nIRENE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE\r\nTO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  IRENE SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD FOR ANOTHER\r\n12 HOURS OR SO....FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAS IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO CHANGE WAS\r\nREQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nONLY A SMALL ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO THE HURRICANE WARNING ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH\r\nAREAS WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 30.7N  77.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 32.2N  77.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 34.4N  76.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 36.7N  75.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 39.5N  74.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 47.5N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 55.5N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/1200Z 59.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE\r\nFLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID\r\nREPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF\r\n50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF\r\nTHE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT\r\nPASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT\r\n225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS\r\nERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE\r\nANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nREACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG\r\nTROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO\r\nPRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY\r\nRAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH\r\nNEW ENGLAND.  \r\n\r\nIRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP\r\nTHE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES\r\nLONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS\r\nAREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY\r\nCONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nCYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 31.7N  77.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 33.4N  77.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 35.5N  76.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 38.2N  75.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 41.8N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 50.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 56.5N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/1800Z 58.0N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n \r\nAIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nEARLY EVENING HAVE FOUND SURFACE PRESSURES OF 950-951 MB AND\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS RANGING FROM 99 KT TO 108 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT OF IRENE. HOWEVER...SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN MUCH\r\nLOWER THAN THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR TYPICALLY\r\nYIELDS. THIS DISPARITY IS LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA\r\nFROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY HAVE BEEN INDICATING VIGOROUS\r\nCONVECTION REDEVELOPING NORTH AND EAST OF THE RAGGED EYE...WITH\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 90 KT OR GREATER AT ALTITUDE ABOVE 15000\r\nFEET. BASED ON THE RADAR DATA AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS COULD EVENTUALLY WORK INTO NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF\r\nIRENE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 85 KT.\r\n\r\nRADAR AND RECON FIXES INDICATE IRENE HAS MADE THE LONG-FORECAST TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NOW AND IS MOVING AT 020/12 KT. IRENE IS\r\nCAUGHT BETWEEN A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND AN\r\nAPPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE\r\nGREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE EAST AMPLIFIES NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC\r\nSTATES DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP IRENE\r\nCLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.\r\n\r\nIRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 12-18 HOURS. THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR ONLY\r\nWEAKEN SLIGHTLY. AFTER LANDFALL...HOWEVER...LAND INTERACTION...\r\nCOOLER WATER...AND GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY\r\nFRONT CURRENTLY LIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO THE VERY LARGE CIRCULATION OF\r\nIRENE. THIS SHOULD DELAY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION UNTIL IRENE IS\r\nOVER MAINE OR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 32.6N  76.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 34.2N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 36.7N  75.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 39.8N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 43.8N  71.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 52.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 56.5N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/0000Z 57.5N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL RADAR DATA SHOW THAT IRENE HAS LOST\r\nSOME ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.  THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS A LACK OF\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT IN THE RADAR DATA.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST\r\nOF IRENE IS STARTING TO ENTRAIN INTO THE HURRICANE.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONTINUES TO OBSERVE 90-100 KT\r\nWINDS AT 700 MB OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST\r\nSURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR HAVE ONLY BEEN 70-75 KT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nGENEROUS.  DESPITE THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 952 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12.  IRENE IS WEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. \r\nIRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING\r\nOVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...OVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THEN OVER NEW ENGLAND.  AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE CORE OF THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nLAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRENE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A\r\nHURRICANE WITH A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL IN NEW\r\nENGLAND.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE NEW\r\nENGLAND LANDFALL...WITH IRENE GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM 48-120 HR.\r\n\r\nTHE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAS DECREASED TO THE\r\nPOINT THAT WE WILL BE REVERTING TO THREE-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE\r\nADVISORIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 34.1N  76.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 35.7N  75.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 38.4N  74.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 41.9N  72.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 46.3N  69.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 54.0N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 57.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/0600Z 58.0N  23.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011\r\n \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT IRENE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1130 UTC JUST WEST OF CAPE\r\nLOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.  THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS\r\n75 KT.  THIS WAS BASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 98 KT AND A\r\nSFMR SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY A NOAA\r\nAIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951 MB AROUND THE TIME\r\nOF LANDFALL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 75 KT.\r\n \r\nIRENE MOVED ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...BUT\r\nHAS WOBBLED BACK TO THE RIGHT SINCE THAT TIME.  SMOOTHING THROUGH\r\nTHESE TEMPORARY CHANGES IN HEADING YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 015/13 KT.  IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND A TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AFTER\r\n48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST INTO EASTERN CANADA.  THE\r\nUPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nIRENE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  IF THE CENTER OF\r\nIRENE MOVES MORE OVER LAND THAN FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS...IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN PREDICTED.  WHETHER IRENE\r\nIS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE\r\nLITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OF DAMAGING WINDS...A\r\nDANGEROUS STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAINS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 35.2N  76.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 37.2N  75.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 40.3N  73.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 44.3N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 48.7N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 55.5N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 58.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/1200Z 59.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":30,"Date":"2011-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF IRENE HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF THE INNER CORE\r\nACTUALLY IMPROVED FOR A FEW HOURS.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE RAGGED\r\nEYE HAS FILLED IN BUT THE CENTER REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON\r\nRADAR...WHICH WARRANTS A RETURN TO TWO-HOURLY INTERMEDIATE\r\nADVISORIES.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85-90 KT TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND A VERY RECENT CENTER DROP\r\nMEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 950 MB.  THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY\r\nRECENT SFMR DATA...BUT BASED ON THE EARLIER SHARP DISCREPANCY\r\nBETWEEN THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS REDUCED TO 70 KT.  A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IRENE MOVES\r\nALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES DUE TO LAND\r\nINTERACTION...COLDER WATERS...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  BECAUSE THE LARGE WIND FIELD WILL TAKE TIME\r\nTO SPIN DOWN...HOWEVER...IRENE IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE NEW\r\nYORK AREA AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nMORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE\r\nSHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH\r\nAREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE STRUCTURES WILL EXPERIENCE\r\nWINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY.  WINDS AT THE 30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT\r\nHIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE\r\nABOUT 30 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUED NORTHWARD FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AFTER THE\r\nRELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT HAS RESUMED A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION OF ABOUT 015/11. IRENE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND OVER NEW\r\nENGLAND ON SUNDAY. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 36-48\r\nHOURS IT SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nNOTE THAT ESTIMATES OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL HAVE BEEN INCREASED WITH\r\nTHIS ADVISORY...TO 20 INCHES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 36.2N  76.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 38.1N  75.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 41.7N  73.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 46.2N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 50.7N  66.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 56.5N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 59.0N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/1800Z 61.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":31,"Date":"2011-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011\r\n \r\nIRENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT\r\nTHE RADAR DEPICTION HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.   AN AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE THIS\r\nEVENING HAS FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 92 KT AND SFMR WINDS\r\nOF 66 KT IN A SMALL AREA MORE THAN 100 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INTENSITY OF IRENE IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nWIND FIELD GRAPHICS BASED ON THE FOUR-QUADRANT RADII WILL DEPICT AN\r\nUNREALISTICALLY LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/14...AND IRENE REMAINS ON\r\nTRACK. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND SKIRT THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND MOVE OVER\r\nNEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER IRENE BECOMES A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES\r\nINTO THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nJUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nIRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER UNTIL LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS ON LONG ISLAND...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT\r\nWEAKENING OF MOST HURRICANES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE\r\nWIND FIELD OF IRENE...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO\r\nBRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS.\r\n\r\nMORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE\r\nSHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH\r\nAREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE\r\nWINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS.  WINDS AT THE\r\n30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE\r\nSURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT\r\nHIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 37.3N  75.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 39.8N  74.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 44.0N  71.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 48.5N  67.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 52.4N  62.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 57.7N  48.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 60.0N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0000Z 61.2N  24.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irene","Adv":32,"Date":"2011-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WRAPPING INTO\r\nMUCH OF THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF IRENE...AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSLOWLY BEGINNING TO FILL AS MEASUREMENTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP TO\r\n958 MB.  BASED ON DROPSONDE AND SFMR DATA SHOWING THAT SURFACE\r\nWINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  DESPITE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...WITH\r\n34-KT WINDS OCCURRING FROM NEW YORK CITY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN\r\nNORTH CAROLINA.  IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH UNTIL IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATER TODAY...\r\nAND IT WILL ONLY TAKE MODEST CONVECTION TO BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS\r\nALOFT TO THE SURFACE AS SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OR GUSTS. \r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL AS IRENE BECOMES A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/16...AS IRENE CONTINUES TO\r\nACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IRENE WILL MERGE INTO\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nEASTERN CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED...BUT HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT IN\r\nTHE VERY SHORT TERM.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nIN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH 24 HOURS. \r\nAFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET.\r\n \r\nNOTE...MORE SO THAN WITH MOST STORMS...THE WINDS WITH IRENE INCREASE\r\nSHARPLY WITH HEIGHT ABOVE THE SURFACE.  AS IRENE MOVES THROUGH\r\nAREAS WITH HIGH-RISE STRUCTURES...THESE BUILDINGS COULD EXPERIENCE\r\nWINDS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE SURFACE WINDS.  WINDS AT THE\r\n30-STORY LEVEL WILL LIKELY BE 20 PERCENT HIGHER THAN AT THE\r\nSURFACE...AND WINDS 80-100 STORIES UP COULD BE ABOUT 30 PERCENT\r\nHIGHER THAN AT THE SURFACE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 39.2N  74.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 41.8N  73.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 46.0N  70.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 50.6N  66.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 54.0N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 58.0N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 61.0N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0600Z 62.0N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":33,"Date":"2011-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nSURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRENE IS MOVING\r\nJUST TO THE WEST OF CONNECTICUT.  THE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED\r\nTO NEAR 020/23...AND SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES ON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nSURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED\r\nTO 50 KT.  CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES OVER LAND TODAY.  IN 12 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IRENE\r\nBECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE SO THE FORECAST SHOWS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY THAT TIME. \r\n\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE\r\nSTRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 41.4N  73.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 44.5N  71.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 49.0N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 53.0N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 56.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 60.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 62.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/1200Z 63.0N  27.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irene","Adv":34,"Date":"2011-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS BECOMING ELONGATED\r\nFROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.  WSR-88D RADAR DATA SHOW THAT THE MAIN\r\nAREA OF PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT IRENE IS BEGINNING TO\r\nLOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT WE WILL RETAIN THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  IT IS LIKELY HOWEVER...THAT THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE THE LAST.  AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT\r\nRESTRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NEAR 020/23.  IRENE OR ITS\r\nPOST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  AFTERWARDS THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER HIGH-RISE\r\nSTRUCTURES AND AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 42.7N  72.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 46.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 50.8N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 54.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 57.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 60.0N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 63.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/1800Z 64.0N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Irene","Adv":35,"Date":"2011-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT IRENE HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  ALSO...SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED NOW THAT IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE...AND IRENE IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nAT THIS TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING FOR THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...\r\nAND LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS THEREFORE INDICATED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/23...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHILE BEING STEERED BY A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER\r\nEXTREME NORTHEASTERN CANADA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...AND\r\nGUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...INCLUDING TOTAL RAINFALL\r\nACCUMULATIONS FROM IRENE...CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED\r\nBY THE NOAA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 5 AM EDT.\r\nFOR MARINE INTERESTS...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR ALL THE RECONNAISSANCE AND\r\nSURVEILLANCE DATA COLLECTED DURING IRENE...AS WELL AS ALL THE LOCAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE OFFICES THAT CONDUCTED SPECIAL RADIOSONDE RELEASES\r\nDURING THE PAST WEEK.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 45.3N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 48.4N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 52.7N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 56.0N  57.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 57.8N  49.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 60.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 62.5N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  03/0000Z 64.0N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE SEVERAL\r\nHUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS\r\nACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST\r\nTIP OF A CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB WHICH\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION AND\r\nTHE RECENT WARMING OF CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER...A\r\nMORE CONSERVATIVE ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY SEEMS MOST PRUDENT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE CENTER HAS NOT BEEN WELL FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN 280/10.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD\r\nDECELERATE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD COURSE\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG 35W IN 2-3 DAYS WHICH SHOULD\r\nBECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO\r\nDIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nTRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND\r\nPOSSIBLY THE NORTH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK AROUND\r\n96-120 HOURS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WITH A WEAKER/SHALLOWER SYSTEM LIKELY LYING WEST OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TRACK OVER WARM ENOUGH WATERS\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS CURRENTLY\r\nSHOW 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION WHICH\r\nIS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL TO CONTINUE.  ALTHOUGH A TEMPORARY\r\nREDUCTION OF THE SHEAR COULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE ABRUPT\r\nTURN OF THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND THIS TIME WILL\r\nBRING IT OVER 25C-26C WATERS AND LATER IN A REGION OF INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...SHOWING SLOW STRENGTHENING. WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED AFTER THAT TIME IN LIGHT OF THE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nFACTORS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER AND IS BELOW MOST THE\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 12.4N  30.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 12.8N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 13.5N  33.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 14.5N  34.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 15.5N  35.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 17.7N  36.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 20.0N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 22.5N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n\r\nAFTER BEING CLOSE TO A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION AND CURVED BANDING. ALTHOUGH DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...AN ASCAT PASS AT 1126 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nOF 25 TO 30 KT...WHICH WAS LESS THAN WHAT WAS MEASURED ON THE LAST\r\nPASS.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE ASCAT DATA SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY A\r\nFAVORABLE STRUCTURE FOR MUCH NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION.  IN\r\nADDITION...NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG TODAY.  THUS THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE IN THE SHORT-TERM.  SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY ON FRIDAY\r\nWITH LESS SHEAR WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS A BIG SPLIT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS SHOWING LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME HURRICANE.  WITH SUCH A LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nBEYOND FRIDAY.  WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY DAY THREE DUE TO AN\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR AND DECREASE IN SSTS.   \r\n\r\nAN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BREAK DOWN AS A TROUGH\r\nFORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS THIS GENERAL IDEA...THERE\r\nARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON HOW QUICKLY THE MORE NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nSTARTS.  PART OF THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER\r\nDEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH A DEEPER SYSTEM MORE\r\nLIKELY TO BE PULLED MORE TO THE NORTH THAN A WEAKER ONE.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST WILL SHOW A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION BY DAY 3 AND ASSUMES\r\nTHE CYCLONE GAINS SOME STRENGTH.  THE NEW FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE DAY OR SO...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nECMWF MODEL AND THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM\r\nEXPERIMENTAL CONSENSUS.  MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHARPER LEFT\r\nTURN IN THE LONGER-RANGE PERIOD...SO THE TRACK AT THAT TIME IS WEST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 13.3N  31.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 13.9N  32.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 14.7N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 15.6N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 16.6N  35.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 18.7N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 20.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 22.0N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED.  THE CURVED\r\nBANDS FROM EARLIER TODAY ALSO APPEAR TO HAVE MORPHED INTO A\r\nBURSTING PATTERN...INDICATIVE OF A SHEARED CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL\r\nWINDS WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCOULD PREVENT STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE SHORT-TERM\r\nALONG WITH THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS\r\nSYSTEM TO INTENSIFY IS ON FRIDAY WITH GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING A\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. \r\nHOWEVER...THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE MARKEDLY AFTER 48\r\nHOURS IN ADDITION TO THE DEPRESSION ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS. \r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND TURNED TO THE RIGHT...\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/8.  THIS TURN IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WEAKENING AS A TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THIS WEAKNESS.  A LEFTWARD TURN IS\r\nANTICIPATED AFTER 3 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS AND BECOMES MORE\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A\r\nLARGE SPREAD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TO BE\r\nLINKED TO THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO GAIN MUCH STRENGTH...THE FORECAST LIES NEAR OR LEFT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nIN THE LONG RANGE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 13.8N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 14.4N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 15.2N  34.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 16.0N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 16.9N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 19.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 20.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 21.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2011\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE EDGE OF THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS.  THIS STRUCTURE IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT SHOWN OVER\r\nTHE DEPRESSION BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE UW-CIMSS SATELLITE\r\nANALYSES.  GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS NEVER BECOME ESPECIALLY\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER WATERS NEAR OR BELOW 26C...WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND LIES BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.  \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8.  THE DEPRESSION IS STILL\r\nMOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nWEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS\r\nTHE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND IS SLOWER THAN MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AT DAY 5. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 14.1N  33.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 14.7N  34.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 16.4N  35.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 17.4N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 19.5N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 20.5N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 21.5N  43.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n \r\nRECENT IR IMAGERY AND AN 0350 UTC AMSR-E PASS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nSOMEWHAT ELONGATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS\r\nTO BE DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS\r\nANALYZED BY UW-CIMMS AND THE GFS FIELDS IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT\r\n30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE\r\nAND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF SHOW LITTLE INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND SHOWS ONLY A BROAD PEAK AT\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING\r\nSHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. IS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY WILL REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED...AND\r\nIF SO THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nSINCE A CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION REMAINS HIGH. BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/8. WHILE OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...A TREND TOWARD A WEAKER CYCLONE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT LESS OF A POLEWARD TURN INTO THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS\r\nWILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 2 OR 3 DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTOWARD THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE\r\nSHALLOW BAM AT DAY 4.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 14.5N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 15.1N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 15.9N  35.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 16.8N  36.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 17.8N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 19.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 21.0N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n \r\nA DECREASING BURST OF CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE DILEMMA WITH THIS SYSTEM\r\nIS THAT WHILE THE CENTER IS STRETCHING THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR STORM\r\nFORCE. GIVEN THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE DECLINING\r\nCONVECTION...IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO LEAVE IT AS A DEPRESSION AT\r\nTHIS TIME. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE\r\nWAS A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY.\r\n\r\nWHILE ANALYSES FROM SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS LOWER\r\nTHAN YESTERDAY...THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...PROBABLY DUE TO POOR LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE.  AT THIS\r\nPOINT...GIVEN THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL OR DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSTRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM...THE NHC FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY UNTIL THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATERS IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.  ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY...AS IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A\r\nDEGRADATION IN STRUCTURE FOR THAT TO OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/7. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST. HOWEVER...WITH THE SYSTEM NOW EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER...\r\nLESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND IS SHIFTED LEFTWARD AFTER THAT TIME. THE FORECAST IS\r\nWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 14.9N  34.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 16.4N  35.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 17.4N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 18.3N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 19.5N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 21.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS BARELY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS QUITE ELONGATED...WITH SEVERAL\r\nSMALLER SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.  CONVECTION HAS\r\nDIMINISHED AS WELL AND LIES FAR TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB...BUT MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST BASED ON\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES...GIVING A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 315/6.  THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A\r\nLEFTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST...MOSTLY BECAUSE\r\nOF THE CENTER RELOCATION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THIS CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH COOLER\r\nSSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nBECOMING MORE HOSTILE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL AND DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL FORECAST.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\r\nA FEW DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT ALL IF IT\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A TROUGH EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 15.6N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 16.3N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 17.2N  35.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 18.1N  36.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 18.8N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 20.0N  40.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Ten","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED...AND\r\nRESEMBLES A NORTHEAST- TO SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED TROUGH.   THE ONLY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED A COUPLE\r\nHUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE TROUGH.  SINCE THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS THE\r\nREQUIRED CHARACTERISTICS THAT DEFINE A TROPICAL CYCLONE...I.E. A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME.  WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO\r\nINCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO REGENERATION\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO UNTIL\r\nCOMPLETELY LOSING ITS IDENTITY.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 16.0N  34.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-28 12:00:00","Key":"AL112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011\r\n800 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA HAS MAINTAINED ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nDURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...THE LOW HAS EXPERIENCED SEVERAL BURSTS\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH ANOTHER BURST NOW BEGINNING JUST EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED TO 2.0 AND\r\nSUPPORT INITIATING ADVISORIES.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35\r\nKT...BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTED THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 35 KT. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nOF 40-50 KT OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF\r\nHURRICANE IRENE...IS HAMPERING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DISSIPATION WITHIN\r\n36 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE\r\nOF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BEFORE LOSING\r\nITS IDENTITY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE CYCLONE TO BERMUDA...THE BERMUDA WEATHER\r\nSERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1200Z 30.8N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 32.4N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 35.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF JOSE IN RECENT\r\nHOURS.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN RE-DEVELOPING NEAR AND EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE\r\nOUTFLOW OF HURRICANE IRENE HAS PREVENTED ANY BURST FROM LASTING\r\nTOO LONG. EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY WAS NEAR\r\n35 KT...AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE CLOUD PATTERN...\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME\r\nREDUCTION IN THE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IT WOULD NOT\r\nLIKELY BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT WEAKENING AS THE CIRCULATION OF JOSE\r\nBECOMES DEFORMED.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-36\r\nHOURS IN PART BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST\r\nREFLECTS THIS LIKELIHOOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12.  JOSE IS MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  AFTER WEAKENING...THE REMNANTS OF JOSE SHOULD TURN NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEFORE LOSING ITS\r\nIDENTITY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 31.5N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 33.6N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 36.6N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nJOSE REMAINS A SMALL AND STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER AND MORE\r\nPERSISTENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 1334 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED\r\nA COUPLE OF UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF ABOVE 35 KT. ALSO...WIND GUSTS\r\nIN EXCESS OF 50 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED DURING THE PAST HOUR ON\r\nBERMUDA AND ALSO BY A SHIP LOCATED ABOUT 30 NMI NORTH OF BERMUDA.\r\nGIVEN THE COARSE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT DATA AND THE SMALL SIZE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT. ASIDE FROM THE EXTREMELY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FORECAST...MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF JOSE QUICKLY BECOMING DEFORMED AND DISSIPATING IN A\r\nDAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nINDICATES DISSIPATION WITHIN 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nJOSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/14.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING REGARDING THE TRACK.  JOSE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION\r\nAS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 33.2N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 35.7N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 39.7N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...JOSE HAD THE CLASSIC APPEARANCE...ALBEIT\r\nQUITE COMPACT...OF A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE IN RADAR DATA\r\nFROM BERMUDA. SINCE THAT TIME JOSE HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SMALL CYCLONE STILL HAS\r\nVERY TIGHTLY CURVED BANDS OF SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION\r\nSPIRALING INTO THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  ALTHOUGH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.0/30 KT...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT GIVEN THE TIGHT SPIRAL\r\nBAND APPEARANCE NOTED IN VARIOUS SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/18 KT. JOSE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING\r\nOVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD LEVEL OFF SOON\r\nAS THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE SHALLOW AS A RESULT OF NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS\r\nEXPECTED BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COMPACT CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED\r\nNORTH-SOUTH ALONG 55W LONGITUDE. BY 24 HOURS...JOSE SHOULD BECOME A\r\nSHALLOW REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER VERY COLD WATER...AND\r\nEVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN.\r\n\r\nAFTER PASSING BRIEFLY THROUGH A REGION OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDIFFLUENCE...JOSE IS NOW MOVING INTO A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST \r\nAND AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THESE\r\nTWO CONVERGING STREAMS OF AIR AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE...ALONG\r\nWITH SSTS DECREASING TO LESS THAN 26C IN 12-18 HOURS...SHOULD\r\nEFFECTIVELY SHUT DOWN THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE RESULT WILL BE A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN\r\nOF THIS COMPACT CYCLONE...WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS\r\nWHEN THE REMNANT LOW WILL BE OVER SUB-20C WATER TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 35.0N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 37.8N  64.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 41.3N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jose","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011\r\n\r\nJOSE WAS DEVOID OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR ABOUT SIX HOURS\r\nOVERNIGHT BUT HAS RECENTLY REGAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION...ALBEIT\r\nNOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...NEAR THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS AROUND\r\n0100 UTC STILL SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF WINDS AROUND 35 KT...AND THAT\r\nWILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE VERY COMPACT\r\nTROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM...BUT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE GRADIENT TODAY AND MOVE OVER WATERS NEAR 25C THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  THESE COOL WATERS...VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR...AND THE\r\nEXPECTED INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST WEST OF JOSE\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. \r\nSTRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRENE AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nWILL STEER JOSE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 37.2N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 40.1N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Jose","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF JOSE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112011\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH JOSE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FEW PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS\r\nBECOME DEFORMED TO THE POINT WHERE IT IS LIKELY NO LONGER CLOSED.\r\nAS JOSE IS NOW AN OPEN TROUGH...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF JOSE ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING UPON IT FROM THE WEST\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 39.5N  63.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS GAINED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE 06Z\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. SOME EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST...BUT OTHERWISE THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...\r\nAND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nHIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSEST TO BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE HWRF MODEL. THE SHIPS FORECAST\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD APPEARS TOO LOW DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nIMPARTED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX IN THE GFS MODEL FIELDS...\r\nWHICH IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13\r\nKNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF AND\r\nRETROGRADES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL-LOW WEAKENS AND THE RIDGE\r\nRE-STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SOUTH OF AND FASTER\r\nTHAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AS MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MORE POLEWARD AND SLOWER MOTION THAN IS\r\nCURRENTLY OBSERVED. DURING THIS TIME THE NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LBAR...WHICH TYPICALLY PERFORMS\r\nWELL IN THE DEEP TROPICS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS\r\nMUCH FASTER THAN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z  9.4N  26.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z  9.8N  28.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 10.7N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 11.9N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 13.1N  36.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 15.0N  42.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 16.5N  48.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 18.0N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING. \r\nTHERE ARE SOME BROKEN BANDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 25 AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND THE INTIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.  CURRENTLY\r\nTHERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS APPEARANCE AND GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT.  THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL SOON LESSEN...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 275/13.  THERE IS A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME...BUT  A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO CREATE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR\r\n40-50W OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE\r\nCYCLONE FROM MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY POLEWARD DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z  9.8N  27.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 10.3N  29.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 11.2N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 12.3N  34.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 13.4N  37.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 15.0N  43.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 16.5N  48.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 18.5N  53.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY. \r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE NOT BECOME MORE DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THE STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nCURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM WILL LESSEN WITHIN A DAY OR\r\nSO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING TO COMMENCE SOON.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OR ABOUT 280/12. THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR 50W LONGITUDE. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT\r\nTHAT THE WEAKNESS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD OVER TIME. AS A\r\nRESULT...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTION...BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF\r\nTRACK AS THE GFS SEEMS TO BE TOO SLOW IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 10.2N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 10.9N  30.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 11.9N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 13.0N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 14.0N  38.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 15.5N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 17.0N  50.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 19.0N  55.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2011\r\n \r\nAT THE TIME OF THE SATELLITE FIXES AT 00Z...A LARGE CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT HALF WAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION...\r\nWHICH RESULTED IN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM\r\nSAB AND T2.0/30 KT WITH A DATA-T NUMBER OF 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THAT TIME THE CURVED BAND HAS DISSIPATED...AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEVOLVED INTO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN. A\r\nSMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND JUST WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...BUT ONE THUNDERSTORM DOES NOT MAKE A TROPICAL STORM.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/13 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS...BUT THERE ARE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MOVE THE DEPRESSION THE\r\nFASTEST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...AND NOGAPS ARE SLOWER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE TREND IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS HAS BEEN TO\r\nWEAKEN THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N55W AND LIFT IT OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST SOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS RESULTS IN LESS OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS ALSO FORECAST TO\r\nCHANGE ITS CURRENT NORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION TO AN EAST-WEST\r\nORIENTATION BY 72 HOURS. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\n4 DAYS...AND THEN SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY TURN MORE WESTWARD BY DAY\r\n5 AS A NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM.\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS BASICALLY ON TRACK...THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nIS JUST AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE EROSION OF CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAS LIKELY BEEN DUE A\r\nNARROW INTRUSION OF DRY AIR COMING IN THE FROM THE NORTHEAST.\r\nHOWEVER...ALL AVAILABLE DIAGNOSTIC AND MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS SURROUNDED BY VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL AIR WITH\r\nHUMIDITY VALUES OF 70 PERCENT OR HIGHER...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO RECOVER LATER TONIGHT AND FOR THE SYSTEM TO\r\nREACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. MODERATE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT.\r\nAFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SHARPLY DECREASE...\r\nAND AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION. THIS IMPROVEMENT IN THE VENTILATION PROCESS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO AT LEAST STEADILY INTENSIFY AND\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS...\r\nLGEM...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 11.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 11.8N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 12.8N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 13.9N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 14.8N  41.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 16.4N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 18.3N  52.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 20.0N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED OVERNIGHT...WITH\r\nA LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NOW SITUATED TO THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE 06Z DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 2.5/35 KT...AND ON\r\nTHIS BASIS THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF KATIA IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 15-20 KT OF\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO...AND AFTER THAT TIME STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD COMMENCE\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY HIGHER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.\r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS AS WELL. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WITH CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT\r\nINCLUDES THE HFIP INTENSITY AIDS.\r\n \r\nA TIMELY AMSR-E PASS FROM 0326Z WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER\r\nON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WAS A BIT NORTH\r\nOF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/15...AS\r\nKATIA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A\r\nCONTINUATION OF THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED BUT THERE ARE SOME FORWARD SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES...WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS ON THE FAST SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND THE GFS CONTINUING TO BE A SLOW OUTLIER. FOR THIS\r\nCYCLE THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...\r\nAND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. OTHERWISE...THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR OR A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 11.8N  31.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 12.5N  33.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 13.5N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 14.4N  40.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 15.3N  43.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 17.0N  49.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 18.5N  54.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 20.5N  58.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2011\r\n \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KATIA HAS DECREASED AND THE STORM\r\nCONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES ARE BETTER DEFINED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS ALSO BECOMING MORE PROMINENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET\r\nAT 40 KT.  WITH WEAKENING SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST\r\nBELOW 28 DEG C...KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND WILL\r\nLIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH\r\nSHOWS KATIA NEARING MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 285/16. NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 12.3N  33.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 13.0N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 13.8N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 14.6N  42.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 15.4N  45.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 17.0N  51.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 19.0N  55.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 21.5N  59.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH\r\nINCREASING CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND WELL-DEFINED BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED TO THE\r\nNORTH...WEST...AND SOUTH OF THE STORM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...\r\nAND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  KATIA WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEG C AND IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING APPEARS\r\nTO BE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSTATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...285/17...IS ONLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND FORECAST PHILOSOPHY ARE\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  KATIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ON THE BASIS OF AN ASCAT PASS FROM\r\nEARLIER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 12.7N  35.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 13.3N  37.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 14.1N  41.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 14.9N  44.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 15.7N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 17.5N  52.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 19.5N  56.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 21.5N  60.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2011\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOWED \r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE\r\nOF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION.  SINCE THAT TIME...ANOTHER BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER AND IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. \r\nHOWEVER...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNCHANGED FROM\r\n1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  KATIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM\r\nWATER AND VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nKATIA BECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS\r\nINTENSITY AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IS CLOSER TO THE MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE HWRF/GFDL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nKATIA IS MOVING BRISKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/19 KT.  KATIA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INDUCES A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE.  THE UPDATED FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT IT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0300Z 13.3N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 14.0N  40.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 14.8N  43.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 15.5N  46.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 16.5N  49.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 18.5N  54.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 20.5N  57.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 23.0N  60.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT KATIA IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND HAS WRAPPED\r\nFARTHER AROUND THE CENTER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS IN THE BAND HAVE\r\nCOOLED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/18.  KATIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...CENTERED NEAR\r\n30N54W AND MOVING WESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT KATIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HR OR SO....THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS IT APPROACHES THE LOW OR ITS REMNANTS.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE\r\nFIRST 36 HR...AND SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AFTER THAT TIME. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK MAKES SIMILAR SMALL ADJUSTMENTS COMPARED TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nA COUPLE OF ISSUES HAVE APPEARED REGARDING THE INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nFIRST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER\r\nDATA SHOW DRY AIR NOT FAR TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CORE OF\r\nKATIA.  THIS HAS NOT YET AFFECTED DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE\r\nFIRST 36 HR.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT INTENSIFICATION\r\nCOULD BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST IF THE DRY AIR REACHES THE CENTER. \r\nSECOND...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS DISAGREE ON THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nNEAR KATIA FROM 72-120 HR.  THE GFS...NOGAPS... AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nSHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING TO THE POINT\r\nWHERE THE STORM REMAINS IN LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. \r\nTHE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP A STRONG ENOUGH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FOR\r\nKATIA TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY AFTER 48 HR DUE TO THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SHEAR DURING THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 13.9N  39.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 14.3N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 15.0N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 15.8N  47.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 16.8N  50.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 19.0N  54.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 21.0N  57.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 23.0N  60.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA REMAINS A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DISTINCT\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE T3.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES AND THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  AT THE MOMENT...IT DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nTHAT THE DRY AIR ADJACENT TO THE STORM IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE\r\nWEAK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING AT\r\nLEAST FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD PLAY A ROLE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  AS NOTED EARLIER...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THIS LOW COULD PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHICH WOULD INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nKATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285/18\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF\r\nTHIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SOME\r\nDECELERATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. \r\nIN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS KATIA APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE VARIOUS MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 14.2N  40.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 14.7N  43.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 15.4N  46.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 16.2N  48.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 17.3N  51.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 19.5N  54.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 21.5N  57.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 23.5N  60.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011\r\n\r\nKATIA IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF HURRICANE STATUS.  THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO EXHIBIT PROMINENT CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS BECOMING STRONGER OVER THE CENTER.  THE STORM ALSO\r\nHAS A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC AND WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES REMAIN AT\r\n55 KT...BUT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODESTLY WARM WATERS\r\nARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO CONTINUED\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.  A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF KATIA COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND INHIBIT\r\nINTENSIFICATION...LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT THE OUTFLOW\r\nANTICYCLONE OF KATIA WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND\r\nDISPLACE THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW.  IF THAT\r\nOCCURS...KATIA WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 4 OR 5. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nA SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  AS KATIA NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nANTICYCLONE...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH DECREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  IT IS ALSO A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 14.6N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 15.1N  44.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 15.8N  47.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 16.6N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 17.7N  52.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 20.0N  55.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 22.0N  58.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 23.5N  61.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY\r\nIMPROVE.  THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE MIDDLE OF AN EXPANDING\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND THERE IS A LARGE CURVED BAND OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  RECENT\r\nSSMIS MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THE BEGINNINGS OF A BANDING EYE\r\nFEATURE...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nEYE IS STILL A BIT THIN.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY.  KATIA IS THE SECOND\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IS FORECAST\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE IN\r\nA FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND KATIA IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 72 HOURS.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE\r\nFIRST 2-3 DAYS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/17 KT.   THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  AFTER 72 HOURS...\r\nKATIA WILL BE NEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY ON THE BASIS OF RECENT\r\nASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 15.0N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 15.6N  46.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 16.3N  49.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 17.3N  51.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 18.4N  53.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 20.5N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 22.5N  59.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 24.0N  61.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2011\r\n\r\nAN AMSR-E OVERPASS AT 0451 UTC RATHER UNEXPECTEDLY SHOWED A PARTLY\r\nEXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH ONLY A FRAGMENT OF AN EYEWALL TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...BUT\r\nTHAT BY ITSELF DOES NOT ADEQUATELY EXPLAIN THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE.\r\nIT MAY BE THAT DRY AIR PREVIOUSLY SEEN NEAR THE STORM HAS WORKED ITS\r\nWAY INTO THE CORE AS HINTED AT IN AMSR-E TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER\r\nDATA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...280/17.  KATIA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N55W WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO 15N60W...\r\nAND A SECOND MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N71W.  THESE FEATURES HAVE\r\nCREATED A SIZABLE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST KATIA TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS.  THERE IS SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY BY 120 HOURS.  THE GFDL...\r\nUKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION...THEN\r\nTHEREAFTER LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE NEAR THE VARIOUS\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nIT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND IS TEMPORARY OR A\r\nSIGN OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT.  THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON THE FORMER POSSIBILITY AND SHOWS A SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE\r\nREMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR\r\nKATIA.  THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A VERY\r\nFAVORABLE PATTERN...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF FORECAST SOME\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THE LATER PART OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS BOTH FORECAST KATIA TO INTENSIFY\r\nTO STRONGER THAN 120 KT...WHICH IS A POSSIBILITY IF THE MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OCCUR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 15.2N  45.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 15.7N  48.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 16.5N  50.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 17.6N  52.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 18.6N  54.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 20.5N  57.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 22.0N  60.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 23.5N  63.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nBASED ON MICROWAVE DATA...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CORE CONVECTION. A CURVED BAND STILL\r\nEXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...BUT CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE BEEN WARMING IN THIS BAND DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT...AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS...IS\r\nCURRENTLY AFFECTING KATIA. THIS SHEAR IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE. THE\r\nUPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPOSE MODERATE SHEAR OVER\r\nKATIA FOR ANOTHER 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN ADDITION...SOME DRY AIR\r\nAPPEARS TO BE ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF KATIA AND\r\nTHIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...COULD INHIBIT\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT-TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT...CREATING A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. THEREFORE...STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE LONGER RANGE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...BUT STILL BRINGS KATIA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nKATIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT IN\r\n4 TO 5 DAYS WITH THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL MODELS ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF MODELS ON THE\r\nNORTH SIDE. THIS SPREAD APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRENGTH\r\nOF A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nPOSITION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nONLY NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...IN PART BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION AND POSITION...AND IS VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 15.5N  47.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 16.1N  49.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 17.0N  51.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 18.0N  53.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 19.0N  55.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 20.8N  58.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 22.3N  61.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 23.8N  64.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011\r\n\r\nKATIA HAS TAKEN THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.\r\nTHE CURVED BAND THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS\r\nDISSIPATED...AND CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI AND T NUMBERS\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nUW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KATIA. AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nPRIMARY SOURCE OF THIS SHEAR. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO\r\nINTERACT WITH THIS LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE\r\nNORTH...RESULTING IN A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY\r\nDUE TO THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...HOWEVER IT STILL BRINGS KATIA TO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nKATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST AT 16 KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT APPROACHES A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HFIP\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS. AFTER\r\nTHAT THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST AS THE MODEL SPREAD\r\nINCREASES. SOME MODELS SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF KATIA...WHILE OTHERS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE WEAKNESS WILL PERSIST...BRINGING THE CYCLONE\r\nFARTHER NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS\r\nAND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE HFIP CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 16.1N  49.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 16.8N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 17.7N  52.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 18.7N  54.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 19.7N  56.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 21.6N  59.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 23.5N  62.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 25.5N  65.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES AROUND 2245 UTC SHOWED THE CENTER OF KATIA ON THE\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT MORE RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW\r\nAN INCREASE OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS AGAIN UNDER THE CANOPY. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nONLY SUPPORT 55 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THAN EARLIER THIS EVENING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW A SHARP\r\nUPPER-TROUGH WITH ITS AXIS ALONG 56 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE INDUCING\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KATIA. GLOBAL MODELS...MAINLY THE\r\nGFS AND EVENTUALLY THE ECMWF INSIST ON WEAKENING THIS TROUGH AND\r\nFORECAST A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION IN A DAY\r\nOR SO. THERE ARE NO SIGNS THAT THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING YET...AND\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  KATIA SHOULD BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY IN ABOUT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS AND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS ASSUMING\r\nTHAT THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS HOSTILE AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.  \r\n\r\nKATIA HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS ERODING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AND THIS WILL INDUCE A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION DURING THE NEXT\r\nTWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG RANGE...A STRONG MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AS THE\r\nATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nFORCE KATIA ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THIS SMALL\r\nBEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK...KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER OPEN WATER \r\nDURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 16.7N  50.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 17.5N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 18.5N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 19.5N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 20.5N  57.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 22.5N  60.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 25.0N  63.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 26.5N  67.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH KATIA HAS PRODUCED A RATHER LARGE AND INTENSE AREA OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...ASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 0100 UTC SHOWED\r\nTHAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. THIS\r\nSTRUCTURE IS DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS QUITE EVIDENT\r\nFROM THE CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS MOVING DIRECTLY INTO THE CORE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE ASCAT PASS...HOWEVER...DID SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF AT\r\nLEAST 60 KT AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF THE INSTRUMENT.\r\nGIVEN THE STRUCTURE TONIGHT...AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS BELOW\r\nHURRICANE FORCE...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 60 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT AN EASY ONE THIS MORNING. A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SHEAR KATIA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON WHEN THIS SHEAR COULD\r\nABATE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING LIGHTER SHEAR BY LATE TOMORROW...WHILE\r\nTHE ECMWF KEEPS SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE\r\nMODELS HAVE GENERALLY UNDERDONE THE AMOUNT OF THE SHEAR FOR THIS\r\nSYSTEM...SO THE NEW FORECAST WILL BE DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND PUTS MORE WEIGHT ON THE LOWER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TO\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH\r\nWOULD SEEM TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF KATIA BECOMING SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nSTRONGER. \r\n\r\nAN EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A TIMELY AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE PASS AT 0533 UTC GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION IS 295/13. A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE\r\nLATER TODAY AS KATIA ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH THAT TRACK GENERALLY CONTINUING FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ONE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THIS SOLUTION IS THE\r\nUKMET MODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND KEEPS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THAT\r\nMODEL HAS SHOWN A WESTWARD BIAS IN EARLIER SIMILAR SITUATIONS...SO\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST WILL DISREGARD THAT SOLUTION AND LEAN MORE CLOSELY\r\nON THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...ALL MODELS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH WOULD FORCE KATIA TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nOR WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH AT DAY 5.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 17.0N  51.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.7N  53.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 18.9N  54.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 19.9N  56.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 21.0N  57.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 23.3N  60.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 25.5N  63.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 27.0N  66.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE DEPICTION OF KATIA HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING AS BOTH\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM SSMIS AND CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN EYE MAY BE FORMING.  BECAUSE OF THE\r\nIMPROVED STRUCTURE...BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CAME\r\nIN AT A 4.0...OR 65 KT...AS DID A 1053Z CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE.  THUS KATIA HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12\r\nKT...AS IT IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  KATIA SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER RATE OF SPEED.  \r\nALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH\r\nHAS A MUCH MORE EQUATORWARD SOLUTION DUE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY...\r\nIS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE\r\nMODELS LESS THE UKMET MODEL.\r\n\r\nDESPITE BECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN...KATIA FACES A RELATIVELY\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHWEST VERTICAL SHEAR OF 15-20 KT\r\nSUGGESTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR\r\nFROM THE GLOBAL MODELS IS ANTICIPATED TO DECREASE...BUT THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS MAY NOT BE IDEAL WITH LOW HUMIDITIES AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ANTICIPATED.  SOME OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTEMPERATURE INCREASES ANALYZED IN THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS...HOWEVER...MAY BE SPURIOUS...AS THE STRONGER VORTEX FROM\r\nTHE GFS MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THESE VALUES RATHER THAN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THUS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO LOW AT DAYS\r\nTHREE TO FIVE. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN A\r\nSHIPS/LGEM/HWRF BLEND BUT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING\r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.5N  52.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.6N  53.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.6N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 20.6N  56.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 21.7N  57.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 24.0N  61.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 26.0N  64.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 27.0N  67.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA REMAINS A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IS STRUGGLING WITH\r\nMODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR.  A 1718Z TRMM SATELLITE PASS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS TILTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION. DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB DECREASED\r\nTO 3.5...THOUGH THE CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT...A MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE...THOUGH IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT KATIA IS SLIGHTLY\r\nWEAKER.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT...AS IT\r\nIS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE. KATIA SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT ABOUT THE SAME RATE OF SPEED.\r\nALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH HAS A MUCH MORE EQUATORWARD SOLUTION\r\nDUE TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST LIFTING OUT\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST MORE QUICKLY.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED\r\nUPON THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS EXCEPT THE\r\nUKMET MODEL. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER KATIA WILL\r\nDIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE FACES A RELATIVELY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH SOUTHWEST\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OF 15-20 KT LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BEYOND\r\n48 HOURS...THE SHEAR AS SHOWN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTO DECREASE SOME.  HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMICS AT THAT TIME MAY\r\nNOT BE IDEAL AS LOW HUMIDITIES AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nANTICIPATED.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MOST SIMILAR TO A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS AS WELL AS THE NEW IV15 INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS FROM THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL-STORM WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD SOME BASED UPON\r\nA 1334Z ASCAT PASS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.4N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 19.0N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 19.9N  55.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 20.9N  57.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 21.9N  58.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 24.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 26.0N  65.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 27.5N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON CLEARLY\r\nSHOWED THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nONE. THIS MEANS THAT KATIA CONTINUES SUFFERING FROM SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nAND HAS NOT INTENSIFIED. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE\r\nFOR A HURRICANE...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY KEPT\r\nAT 65 KNOTS BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nGIVING THE FALSE IMPRESSION THAT THE SHEAR IS WEAKENING. THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE TRANSIENT SINCE WATER VAPOR IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING THE SHEAR IS STILL THERE...AND\r\nGLOBAL MODELS BASICALLY KEEP POSTPONING ITS WEAKENING.  ACTUALLY...\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT WILL\r\nREMAIN HOSTILE FOR 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT\r\nHOSTILE EVEN LONGER. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR ABOUT TWO DAYS AND FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nKATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY BUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD AND\r\nWEAKEN THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FORECAST PATTERN\r\nCALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SPEED THROUGH FIVE DAYS AS INDICATED IN THE\r\nNHC FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH BUILDS A\r\nSTRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND KEEPS KATIA ON\r\nA MORE WESTWARD TRACK...THE REST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 18.5N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.5N  55.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 20.5N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 21.5N  59.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 22.5N  60.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 24.5N  63.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 26.5N  66.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 28.0N  69.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING WITH BURSTS OF CONVECTION\r\nFORMING AN UNSHAPELY CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE OVERALL PATTERN\r\nIS NOT WELL ORGANIZED EITHER WITH THE HURRICANE HAVING TROUBLE\r\nMAINTAINING BANDING FEATURES.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT STILL SUPPORT 65 KT ON THIS\r\nADVISORY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT WERE A LITTLE WEAKER\r\nGIVEN THE RAGGED SATELLITE APPEARANCE.\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME DRY AIR CONTINUE TO PREVENT SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF KATIA...HOWEVER...HAS BEEN WEAKENING...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE STARTING ON\r\nSUNDAY.  THUS SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED AT THAT TIME IN THE\r\nNHC FORECAST.  AFTERWARD...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR COULD BECOME RATHER\r\nLOW BY DAY 4 AS AN UPPER-HIGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWHILE KATIA MOVES OVER 29C WATER TEMPERATURES.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE EARLY ON...NEAREST THE LGEM/SHIPS\r\nMODELS...BUT THEN IS BLENDED A LITTLE HIGHER AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.   BOTH THE HWRF\r\nAND GFDL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THE NHC FORECAST...BUT\r\nTHEY ARE PROBABLY NOT HANDLING THE MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT CORRECTLY.\r\n \r\nKATIA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 KT.  ALMOST\r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THIS GENERAL TRACK GOING FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE UKMET MODEL HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY FORECASTING\r\nA MUCH STRONGER RIDGE...WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS.  THIS WESTWARD TRACK SEEMS HIGHLY\r\nUNLIKELY DUE TO A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN\r\nAND THE UKMET SOLUTION IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST.  \r\nOTHERWISE...THE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD\r\nTONIGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THEN IS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR AS THE\r\nMOST RECENT ECMWF/GFS/GFDL MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 19.3N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 20.1N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 21.1N  57.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 22.2N  59.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 23.4N  61.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 26.0N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 28.5N  67.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 31.0N  70.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n \r\nSEVERAL MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATED\r\nTHAT KATIA IS TILTED...WITH A MID-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE DISPLACED\r\nABOUT 20 N MI NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. FINAL T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nDOWN TO T3.5 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB...ALTHOUGH CI NUMBERS ARE STILL\r\nHOLDING AT 4.0. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND ARE\r\nNOW T4.1. KATIA WILL BE KEPT AS A HURRICANE FOR NOW...BUT IF TRENDS\r\nCONTINUE IT COULD ONCE AGAIN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nKATIA IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND TOWARDS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nTHE UKMET...WHICH IS DISREGARDED IN THIS FORECAST...THE MODELS ARE\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A MOTION OF ABOUT 305 DEGREES AT 9\r\nTO 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX AND PARTLY DEPENDS ON HOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE AND U.S. EAST COAST TROUGHING EVOLVE OVER THAT\r\nTIME.  AS AN EXAMPLE...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW\r\nOVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY DAY 5 WHILE THE GFS HAS A SHARP TROUGH\r\nALMOST READY TO CLOSE OFF OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.  DESPITE\r\nTHESE DIFFERENCES...BOTH MODELS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE EAST...WITH THE\r\nGFS BEING THE FASTEST DUE TO THE MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE EAST YET STILL LIES TO THE\r\nWEST OF THOSE USUALLY RELIABLE MODELS.\r\n\r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS AFFECTING KATIA AND IS LIKELY ALLOWING DRY\r\nAIR TO ERODE THE DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE.  THIS SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...DURING WHICH\r\nTIME NO STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE\r\nLOCATION OF KATIA RELATIVE TO THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OR CLOSED LOW\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO INDICATE INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 4...AND IS\r\nSTILL ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND STATISTICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nIT IS ADVISABLE NOT TO FOCUS ON SLIGHT FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGES\r\nNEAR THE MAJOR HURRICANE THRESHOLD OF 100 KT SINCE THERE IS VERY\r\nLITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 95- AND 100-KT HURRICANE.  BASED ON THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST AND RECENT NHC INTENSITY ERRORS...AT THIS TIME\r\nTHERE IS ROUGHLY A 50/50 CHANCE OF KATIA STILL BECOMING A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 19.6N  55.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 20.3N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 21.3N  58.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 22.5N  60.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 23.7N  62.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 29.5N  67.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 32.0N  69.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY AND ARE NOW\r\nT3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5/3.5 FROM SAB.  BASED ON THE STRUCTURE\r\nNOTED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...IT APPEARS THAT KATIA HAS\r\nWEAKENED SOME AND AGAIN IS A TROPICAL STORM.  FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY BY 5 TO 10 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT\r\nTHIS FACT WILL ONLY BE MORE APPARENT THAN USUAL SINCE THE INTENSITY\r\nWOULD BE OSCILLATING AROUND THE 65-KT HURRICANE THRESHOLD.\r\n\r\nIT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO...BUT THE DIVERGENCE ONLY GROWS FROM THERE.  COMPARED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND\r\nTHE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD HAVE INCREASED\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.  FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF...WHICH IS\r\nNORMALLY RELIABLE...SWUNG FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE...SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT\r\nTO THE WEST TOWARDS THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT WE WOULD\r\nRATHER SEE SOME STABILITY IN THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING A LARGER\r\nSHIFT.\r\n\r\nNEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO COMPLEX.  KATIA HAS\r\nNOT BEEN STRENGTHENING AS ANTICIPATED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DO\r\nNOT APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT AROUND KATIA BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN U.S.\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DO NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN KATIA BEYOND CATEGORY 1 STATUS WHEREAS THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nSTILL SHOW THE STORM REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 19.9N  56.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 20.7N  58.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 21.8N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 23.1N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 24.3N  63.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 27.0N  66.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 29.5N  69.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 31.5N  70.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...THERE IS AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN WITH THE FORMATION OF A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nAND A BETTER DEFINED OUTFLOW IN CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. I HAVE BEEN\r\nLUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES OVER KATIA TONIGHT. \r\nTHESE DATA SHOW A MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE THAN\r\nIN EARLIER PASSES...BUT THE CIRCULAR RING OF CONVECTION\r\nREPRESENTING THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE MIGHT NOT BE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT SEEMS IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL IMAGERY.  HAVING SAID THAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN KEPT AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS.  AS STATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...KATIA COULD REACH\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AGAIN AT ANY TIME...AND SINCE THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO RELAX IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n\r\nSINCE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...THERE IS NOT\r\nTOO MUCH TO ADD TO THE DISCUSSION.  KATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD\r\nOR WESTWARD DEPENDING ON HOW EACH MODEL REPRESENTS THE MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN EACH RUN.  IT INTERESTING\r\nTO NOTE THAT TONIGHT...THE GFS DEFINES THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE ECMWF THE WESTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A THE MIDDLE OF THESE TWO EXTREME SOLUTIONS. IN\r\nGENERAL...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE TO KEEP KATIA ON A TRACK BETWEEN THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AND THEN TURN\r\nTHE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nNOAA BUOY 41044...LOCATED A LITTLE MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF KATIA RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KNOTS AND 18-FOOT\r\nWAVES. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 20.3N  57.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 21.0N  58.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 22.3N  60.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 23.5N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 24.5N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N  67.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 29.1N  70.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 32.0N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Katia","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA REMAINS IN A NEARLY STEADY STATE. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES\r\nTO CONSIST OF A RATHER INDISTINCT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WHICH HAS\r\nBEEN PULSATING SOMEWHAT FREQUENTLY. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES\r\nSHOWED THE EXISTENCE OF A MID-LEVEL EYE THAT HAS BEEN LESS DEFINED\r\nIN THE LOW-LEVELS. WITH ESSENTIALLY NO STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO REPORT\r\nAND DVORAK T-NUMBERS THE SAME AS AT 0000 UTC...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT. CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS AND UW-CIMSS\r\nANALYSES SUGGEST A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW\r\nLAYER...WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN STALLING THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST ON A MORE CONDUCIVE UPPER AIR\r\nFORECAST AHEAD OF KATIA THAT WOULD FAVOR INTENSIFICATION BEGINNING\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEN AGAIN...THE FORECAST REDUCTION IN SHEAR\r\nBY THIS TIME HAS NOT MATERIALIZED AND IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE MODELS\r\nHAVE CONTINUALLY UNDERFORECAST THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL KEEP THIS IN MIND AND REPRESENT A MEASURED\r\nAPPROACH...BLENDING THE MORE RELIABLE STATISTICAL MODELS INDICATING\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE WHICH STILL FORECASTS\r\nKATIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nLOCATING THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...BUT A TIMELY AMSR-E PASS HELPED TO ESTABLISH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS KATIA HEADING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE LOCATED OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  ALTHOUGH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS\r\nFEATURE TO LIFT OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THEY ALSO FORECAST\r\nA WEAKNESS OVER THIS REGION TO REMAIN IN PLACE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nKATIA TO CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE AND SLOW DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE LONGER-TERM TRACK OF KATIA SEEMS DEPENDENT\r\nON THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF LEE AND A PROCESSION\r\nOF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...BOTH OF WHICH THE MODELS ARE HANDLING DIFFERENTLY TO\r\nVARYING DEGREES.  THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE...ALONG WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE IN THE\r\nSPREAD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK AT THIS LONGER RANGE IS OF SOMEWHAT\r\nLOWER CONFIDENCE...GIVEN THE SPREAD...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 21.4N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 22.3N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 23.5N  61.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 24.7N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 25.8N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 27.7N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 30.0N  71.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 32.5N  72.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n \r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CENTER OF KATIA MOVED JUST TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF NOAA BUOY 41044...WHICH MEASURED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 78\r\nKT...A GUST TO 93 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 968.3 MB.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO BETWEEN 65 AND\r\n77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE BEEN HOVERING AROUND 85 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...KATIA IS\r\nINITIALIZED AS AN 85-KT HURRICANE.  AN EYE IS BECOMING APPARENT IN\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...YET THE INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION VERY SYMMETRICAL.\r\n \r\nKATIA APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/10 KT.\r\nALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE ON THIS FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL ARE A\r\nLITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH BY DAY 5.  MUCH OF THIS DIFFERENCE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE POSITIONING OF THE CLOSED MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIN 4-5 DAYS...WHICH THE GFS SHOWS ABOUT 300 N MI FARTHER TO THE\r\nEAST AND DEEPER THAN IN THE ECMWF AND UKMET AT DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND STILL KEEPS\r\nTHE HURRICANE AT OR EAST OF 72W.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE QUICK STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...ADT\r\nESTIMATES HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 85 KT...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE\r\nCYCLE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS GOING TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL IS STILL DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF SOUTH TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER KATIA...BUT THE HURRICANE MAY BE\r\nBENEFITING FROM UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW\r\nJETS TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS AT THE HIGHER RANGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING CLOSE\r\nTO THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS\r\nSUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND KATIA COULD STILL\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 21.9N  59.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 22.9N  60.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 24.1N  62.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 25.2N  64.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 26.2N  65.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 28.0N  68.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 30.0N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 33.0N  72.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n \r\nWHILE KATIA HAS HAD A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...THE INFRARED REPRESENTATION OF THE EYE HAS COME AND GONE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC\r\nWERE A UNANIMOUS T5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nKATIA HAS TURNED JUST A BIT TO THE RIGHT WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n310/10 KT.  COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FEW FORECAST CYCLES...THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY MORE AGREEMENT IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.  FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nAND AGREES ON MAINTAINING KATIA ON A HEADING OF 310 DEGREES WITH\r\nSOME DECELERATION.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE BUT NOT\r\nAS MUCH AS THERE WAS EARLIER.  ACTUALLY...THE GFS...ECWMF...AND\r\nUKMET MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW\r\nDEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND HAVE THE POSITION OF\r\nTHE LOW WITHIN 200 N MI OF EACH OTHER BY DAY 5.  THIS CONFIGURATION\r\nSHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE USUALLY RELIABLE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A BIT\r\nTO THE EAST AND IS NOW VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOR THIS CYCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY HAVE LEVELED OFF A BIT...BUT\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE ONLY APPARENT NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR THIS ARE\r\nRELATIVELY WARM UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AND LOWER OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT VALUES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH...ESPECIALLY FROM DAYS\r\n3 THROUGH 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF\r\nTHE RANGE OF GUIDANCE VALUES...CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE\r\nMODELS...AND INDICATES GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING\r\nPARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  EVEN IF KATIA DOES\r\nNOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF\r\nAND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 22.7N  60.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 23.7N  61.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 25.0N  63.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 26.1N  64.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 27.1N  66.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 29.0N  69.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 31.5N  71.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 34.5N  71.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER KATIA STRENGTHENED STEADILY EARLIER TODAY...THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW. THE\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC SINCE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS LOCATED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS EASILY SEEN IN\r\nMULTI-CHANNEL NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY...IT IS ONLY OCCASIONALLY\r\nEVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN 90 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT\r\nTHAT VALUE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nDURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD AS A TROUGH BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW KATIA TO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK\r\nWITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS...KATIA\r\nIS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nFLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF\r\nSHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA IN FOUR TO\r\nFIVE DAYS...AND THAT COULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY AT 120\r\nHOURS...BUT LIES WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THE CURRENT\r\nTREND TOWARD A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION CONTINUES IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT DIRECTION WOULD BE REQUIRED.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY OF KATIA HAS LEVELED OFF THIS EVENING...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS IT REMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nENVIRONMENTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST IN THE THREE TO FIVE DAY\r\nRANGE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A REGION WITH LOWER VALUES OF\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND PERHAPS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR\r\nA BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS. \r\n\r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA ARE ALREADY APPROACHING\r\nPARTS OF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. EVEN IF KATIA DOES\r\nNOT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE UNITED STATES...THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF\r\nAND RIP CURRENTS ALONG EAST COAST BEACHES IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES FOR MORE INFORMATION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 23.4N  61.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 24.4N  62.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 25.7N  64.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 26.9N  65.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 28.0N  66.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 30.3N  69.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 33.5N  71.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 36.0N  69.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF KATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE\r\nTHROUGH ANOTHER ROUND OF CHANGES...WITH A NET DECREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION NOTED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AN EYE THAT WAS\r\nEVIDENT EARLIER IS NO LONGER APPARENT...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT\r\nDRY AIR HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT...WITH A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW SINK TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  A BLEND OF DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB IS\r\nLOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nLOWERED TO 85 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KATIA HAS BEEN WOBBLING. SMOOTHING OF RECENT FIXES\r\nYIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/10. LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSHOW KATIA ROUNDING THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEAST OF BERMUDA...HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FURTHER WESTWARD PROGRESS\r\nIS LIKELY TO BE BLOCKED AS KATIA IS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW IN BETWEEN A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. ONCE KATIA GAINS ENOUGH\r\nLATITUDE...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE HURRICANE BECOMING EMBEDDED IN \r\nSTRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD.\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AND NOW FAVORS A RECURVATURE SCENARIO ROUGHLY ALONG\r\n70W...WITH EVEN THE LEFT-LEANING UKMET/ECMWF MODELS NOW SHIFTING\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS HOW\r\nQUICKLY KATIA WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD...WITH\r\nMAJOR TIMING DIFFERENCES NOTED AMONGST THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS BUT IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AND IS MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...KATIA WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN\r\nENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ANTICYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WEAK\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS. THE PRIMARY NEGATIVE\r\nFACTORS THAT COULD INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS DURING THIS\r\nTIME ARE LOW MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...A LOWERING OF THE\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE POSSIBILITY\r\nOF A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DUE TO WARMING ALOFT.  AFTER 96\r\nHOURS...INCREASING SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY OF KATIA TO A STRONG\r\nGRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO\r\nWEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED EARLY\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND ALSO AT THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 23.9N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 25.0N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 26.3N  64.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 27.5N  66.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 28.6N  67.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 31.4N  70.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 35.5N  69.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 38.5N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":30,"Date":"2011-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA APPEARS TO HAVE GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND NOW\r\nHAS A 30 N MI WIDE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND OF\r\nTHE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO\r\nT5.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE AT T5.5. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING RAISED TO 95 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT...BUT THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS\r\n310/11 KT.  KATIA IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND TOWARDS DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS.  ALTHOUGH ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SHARP RE-CURVATURE BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THERE IS STILL A\r\nLARGE DIVERGENCE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH GREATER-THAN-NORMAL SPREAD\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5.  FOR THIS CYCLE...THE GUIDANCE IS BOUNDED BY THE\r\nSLOWER-MOVING ECMWF AND UKMET...AND THE FASTER-MOVING GFS. IF\r\nTRENDS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS CONTINUE TODAY...I WOULD EXPECT\r\nTHE 12Z GUIDANCE TO SHOW LESS SPREAD AND FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEING SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR KATIA APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER OCEAN HEAT\r\nCONTENT VALUES THAT DO NOT NORMALLY SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAINTAINS THE\r\nINTENSITY THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 AS VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...AND AS KATIA MOVES OVER EVEN\r\nLESS CONDUCIVE OCEAN WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT\r\nTHE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS\r\nEXPANDED A BIT...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 24.6N  63.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 25.6N  64.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 26.9N  65.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 28.1N  67.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 29.2N  68.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 32.5N  70.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 37.0N  67.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 40.0N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":31,"Date":"2011-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KATIA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED\r\nTHROUGH THE DAY WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE AND EXCELLENT UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nINFRARED PRESENTATION IS LAGGING A BIT AND SHOWS A THINNING OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE\r\nRAISED TO 100 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE BEEN RUNNING\r\nHIGHER...BUT WITH THE CONVECTION LACKING SYMMETRY AND A COOLING EYE\r\nIN THE LAST FEW IMAGES...I WOULD RATHER WAIT TO RAISE THE INTENSITY\r\nANY HIGHER.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS ABOUT 310/10 KT...AND KATIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS NEARLY STRAIGHT TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS AS IT MOVES AROUND A CENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. \r\nFAIRLY SHARP RE-CURVATURE IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS AROUND DAY\r\n3...AND THEY ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES THE\r\nCENTER ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE U.S. EAST COAST.  AS\r\nWAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY...THERE IS STILL GREATER-THAN-NORMAL\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF\r\nAGREEMENT ON WHEN KATIA WILL BE SCOOPED UP BY STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SPED\r\nUP A BIT AND THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...SO THE UNCERTAINTY HAS\r\nDECREASED SOMEWHAT.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 96-HOUR POINT TOWARD\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND STILL LIES NEAR THE\r\nUPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE.  ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST WITH KATIA EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY LESS\r\nFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE HIGHER BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS THAN WAS\r\nPREVIOUSLY SHOWN...AND THIS COULD ALSO LIMIT STRENGTHENING. \r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE GFS IS SHOWING KATIA BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY\r\n5...BUT SINCE IT IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS IT IS PROBABLY\r\nSHOWING THIS A LITTLE TOO SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 25.2N  63.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 26.1N  64.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 27.3N  66.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 28.5N  67.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 29.7N  69.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 33.5N  70.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 38.5N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 42.0N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":32,"Date":"2011-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 05 2011\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR STATUS AT 120 HOUR FORECAST IN TABLE\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KATIA HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nBECAME MUCH MORE SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE WARMED DURING THE EVENING\r\nHOURS...DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO\r\n6.0/115 KT AT 0000 UTC. DESPITE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE APPEARANCE\r\nOF THE EYE OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO...ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nARE STILL 6.2/122 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 115\r\nKT...MAKING KATIA A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9...A TOUCH SLOWER\r\nTHAN NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nUNCHANGED. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN 48 TO\r\n72 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW\r\nBETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL ALLOW KATIA TO MOVE BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.\r\nAFTER THAT...A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA GETS CAUGHT IN\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN\r\nCONVERGING DURING THE PAST FEW CYCLES AND ARE NOW IN RELATIVELY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF KATIA ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS...PERHAPS DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AS THE\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SLOW WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS KATIA MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nMODERATE SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS BASED ON THE\r\nOBSERVED STRENGTHENING AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. KATIA IS\r\nNOW FORECAST TO BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5...AS IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE WELL-EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND OVER 20-21C\r\nWATERS BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nDRIFTING BUOY 41855...WHICH WAS LOCATED ABOUT 20 N MI NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE EYE OF KATIA AT 0000 UTC...REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 952\r\nMB.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 25.8N  64.4W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 26.9N  65.5W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 28.1N  66.9W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 29.4N  68.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 30.9N  69.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 35.4N  69.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 39.5N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 42.5N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":33,"Date":"2011-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF KATIA HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN\r\nORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nBECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC AND THE EYE LESS DISTINCT AND COOLER. A\r\nTIMELY AMSU-B IMAGE FROM 0544 UTC INDICATED A DOUBLE EYEWALL\r\nSTRUCTURE...SUGGESTING THAT KATIA IS AGAIN IN THE MIDST OF ANOTHER\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nDECREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE 0000 UTC.  A BLEND OF THESE AND THE LATEST\r\nADT VALUES IS THE BASIS FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 110\r\nKT.  DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR KATIA TO\r\nMAINTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. HOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH\r\nDUE TO A DIFFICULT-TO-FORECAST INNER CORE EVOLUTION ARE PROBABLE\r\nDURING THIS TIME.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE WILL BE\r\nENCOUNTERING AN ENVIRONMENT OF GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAND LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...KATIA SHOULD MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL\r\nTO A STRONG GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND WILL BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED IN AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AS IT NEARS A\r\nMID-LATITUDE JET...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE ITS TRANSITION TO\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS KATIA AS STRONG CYCLONE THROUGH\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nKATIA APPEARS TO BE EXHIBITING A TROCHOIDAL MOTION...WITH A\r\nSMOOTHING OF RECENT FIXES YIELDING AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n315/9.  VERY LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST TRACK\r\nON THIS PACKAGE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KATIA BEING STEERED AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF BERMUDA AND TOWARD A\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  BY 48 HOURS...KATIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD ROUGHLY ALONG 70W\r\nIN BETWEEN A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE EAST.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN\r\nA FAST AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH\r\nCOVERING THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND A BIT TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER TIMES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 26.5N  65.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 27.4N  66.2W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 28.6N  67.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 30.2N  69.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 32.0N  69.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 36.2N  68.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 40.0N  60.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 44.0N  41.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":34,"Date":"2011-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 06 2011\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM OVERNIGHT INDICATES THAT KATIA HAS GONE\r\nTHROUGH A CLASSIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT WITH A WIDE RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ENCLOSING A SMALLER AND ERODING INNER EYEWALL.  AS WOULD\r\nBE EXPECTED IN A CASE LIKE THIS...DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO BETWEEN 5.0 AND 5.5...AND CI NUMBERS REMAIN AT 6.0. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 105 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE NUMBERS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE KATIA THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF KATIA CONTINUES TO WOBBLE...THE SMOOTHED\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 310/9 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT.  THE HURRICANE IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO MAKE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 2 DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BETWEEN THE BERMUDA HIGH AND A\r\nCLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST AT 72 HOURS...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE RE-CURVATURE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS SHARP AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY SHOWN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION BUT LIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE TVCA AND EXPERIMENTAL\r\nTV15 CONSENSUS MODELS.  AFTER 72 HOURS...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE MODELS ARE\r\nSTILL SHOWING SOME DIVERGENCE IN SPEED AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...BUT\r\nTHE SPREAD IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT HAS BEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS.  ONLY A\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED AT DAY 5.\r\n\r\nSINCE KATIA IS GOING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT AND WILL BE LEFT\r\nWITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO\r\nWOULD BE FOR THE HURRICANE TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY 36 HOURS AS KATIA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER WATERS OF LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND POSSIBLY BE AFFECTED BY STRONGER\r\nSHEAR.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD PREVENT KATIA\r\nFROM WEAKENING TOO MUCH...EVEN OVER COLDER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MAINLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 27.0N  65.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 27.9N  67.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 29.2N  68.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 30.9N  69.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 32.9N  70.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 37.5N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 41.5N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 49.0N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":35,"Date":"2011-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011\r\n \r\nA 1509 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT THE INNER EYEWALL OF KATIA IS\r\nDECAYING WITHIN A LARGER EYEWALL...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS\r\nNEARING THE END OF ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MADE TWO PASSES THROUGH THE STORM AND\r\nMEASURED A MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 114 KT AND A PEAK\r\nSURFACE WIND OF 81 KT FROM THE SFMR. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED THAT\r\nTHE NEW RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS ABOUT 55 N MI...AND THE 64- AND\r\n50-KT RADII HAVE EXPANDED. BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF THE WIND\r\nFIELD...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE STANDARD FLIGHT-LEVEL TO SURFACE\r\nWIND RELATIONSHIP MAY BE TOO HIGH...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nTHEREFORE SET AT 90 KT.\r\n \r\nKATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE ON TRACK WITH A MOTION OF 310/9 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC MID-LEVEL HIGH IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND IT SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND\r\nTOWARD A DELAY IN PICKING UP THE HURRICANE BY THE FAST MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES...AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD\r\nSHIFT OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS ALSO BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION...ENDING UP ON THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO BE\r\nDECREASING AT THE 96- AND 120-HOUR POINTS AS ALL THE MODELS HAVE\r\nKATIA ACCELERATING IN THE WESTERLIES...AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WAS REQUIRED AT THOSE TIMES.\r\n \r\nTHE EXPANDING WIND FIELD OF KATIA SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE HURRICANE\r\nCOULD BE AFFECTED BY SOME SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IT IS\r\nALREADY MOVING OVER WATERS THAT ARE BECOMING GRADUALLY LESS\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR RE-STRENGTHENING.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nVARIOUS GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE IN AGREEMENT SHOWING KATIA BECOMING\r\nENTANGLED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 96 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nTHEREFORE FORECAST TO BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT TIME...BUT THERE\r\nSHOULD BE ENOUGH BAROCLINIC FORCING TO MAINTAIN IT AS A POWERFUL\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 27.6N  66.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 28.5N  67.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 29.9N  69.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 31.7N  70.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 34.0N  69.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 39.0N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 44.0N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1800Z 53.0N  29.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":36,"Date":"2011-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED KATIA THIS AFTERNOON THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY. ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nHAS GAINED CURVATURE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS QUITE THIN OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS SEEN IN THE LAST FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES.\r\nTHIS ASYMMETRIC PATTERN IS LIKELY DUE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 90 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK\r\nT AND CI NUMBERS.\r\n\r\nKATIA IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT...BUT IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nFLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF\r\nLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY OF THE UNITED STATES. KATIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IN TWO TO THREE DAYS\r\nAS THE CYCLONE GETS SWEPT UP IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE\r\nMODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF KATIA...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE 96- AND\r\n120-HOUR FORECAST POINTS ARE LARGELY BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE\r\nOCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...KATIA WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...\r\nWHICH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW KATIA BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 28.1N  67.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 29.0N  68.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 30.6N  69.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 32.7N  69.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 35.2N  69.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 40.0N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 45.0N  44.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0000Z 55.0N  25.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":37,"Date":"2011-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF KATIA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED\r\nOVERNIGHT. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING AND\r\nDRY AIR APPEARS TO WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...THE LATTER GIVING THE CYCLONE A SOMEWHAT HOLLOW\r\nAPPEARANCE. IN ADDITION...THERE APPEARS TO BE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE HURRICANE...AS EVIDENCED BY CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS AND\r\nCONFIRMED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE LOWER...AND A REASONABLE BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KT. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE THAT\r\nBEGAN 24-36 HOURS APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN INTERRUPTED...WITH EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWING AN OUTER EYEWALL AT LARGE RADIUS THAT WAS\r\nNOT CONTRACTING MUCH. THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH THE MODERATE\r\nSHEAR...SUGGESTS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH...FOLLOWED BY ONLY A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS KATIA REMAINS OVER\r\nRELATIVELY WARM WATERS. AFTER 72 HOURS...KATIA WILL QUICKLY MOVE\r\nALONG A STRONG GRADIENT OF SSTS AND ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY\r\nBAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID\r\nTRANSITION TO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS LOWERED IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A FAIRLY SLOW 315/08. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KATIA\r\nGRADUALLY TURNING FROM NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nRECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN HANDLING THE STEERING FLOW\r\nAROUND THE STORM WELL FOR SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES AND IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED...GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. ONLY MINOR\r\nCHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...WITH THE CURRENT\r\nNHC TRACK AGAIN CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 28.7N  67.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 29.8N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 31.7N  69.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 34.0N  69.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 36.4N  67.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 40.9N  58.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 47.0N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0600Z 59.0N  17.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":38,"Date":"2011-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF KATIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLY\r\nTHIS MORNING. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE REMAINING\r\nFRAGMENTS OF AN INNER EYE WALL WITH A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  IT APPEARS THAT DRY AIR HAS\r\nWRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NON EXISTENT OVER THAT PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nDVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB HAVE DECREASED AND CI-NUMBERS\r\nFROM BOTH AGENCIES ARE NOW T4.5.  THIS SUPPORTS LOWERING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT.  GIVEN THE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nTHE LACK OF A TIGHT-INNER CORE...SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS KATIA BEGINS MOVING\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...HOWEVER THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD NEGATE THE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR VERY\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/9.  THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE\r\nINTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES IN 3-4 DAYS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT EVEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK.  THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THESE RELIABLE MODELS AND ONLY SLIGHT\r\nADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE WERE\r\nEXPANDED OUTWARD BASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41048.  THE CENTER OF\r\nKATIA IS FORECAST TO PASS VERY NEAR THAT BUOY TONIGHT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 29.2N  68.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 30.6N  69.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 32.8N  69.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 35.4N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 38.1N  66.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 42.5N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 51.0N  29.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/1200Z 60.0N   8.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":39,"Date":"2011-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA WARMED DURING THE EARLY\r\nAFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THAT TIME A NEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS FORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AN EARLIER TRMM PASS\r\nONCE AGAIN SHOWED A SMALL REMNANT OF THE INNER EYEWALL WITH A LARGE\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH AND EAST SEMICIRCLES OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS\r\nCONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 70 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REASONING.  MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DECREASE ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THIS IS LIKELY\r\nTO BE NEGATED BY SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER.  OVERALL...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  KATIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nLARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/9.  THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT MOVING KATIA AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH MOVING ACROSS\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL IN\r\nREMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE\r\nTRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AT 36 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 29.9N  69.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 31.3N  70.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 33.8N  70.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 36.6N  68.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 39.2N  64.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 44.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 53.0N  26.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/1800Z 60.0N   7.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":40,"Date":"2011-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KATIA IS\r\nAN ASYMMETRIC HURRICANE.  DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN\r\nHALF OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE INNER-MOST CONVECTIVE BAND.  THIS\r\nPATTERN IS THE RESULT OF MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION.  NOAA BUOY 41048...LOCATED ABOUT\r\n90 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER OF KATIA...RECENTLY REPORTED A MAXIMUM\r\n1-MINUTE WIND OF 58 KT WITH A GUST TO 72 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT KATIA MAY HAVE WEAKENED A\r\nLITTLE...I PREFER TO KEEP THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 70 KT GIVEN THE\r\nBUOY OBSERVATION.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KATIA\r\nBECOMING A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nKATIA IS NOW BEGINNING THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN AS IT MOVES\r\nBETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nOVER THE OHIO VALLEY OF THE UNITED STATES.  A PRONOUNCED INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST IS\r\nFORECAST TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL FORECAST POINTS ARE VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE\r\nPROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 30.8N  70.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 32.5N  70.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 35.2N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 37.9N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 40.4N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 46.6N  40.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 55.0N  22.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0000Z 60.0N   6.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":41,"Date":"2011-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED FOR TIME \r\n\r\nNOAA BUOY 41048 HAS PROVIDED VERY VALUABLE DATA IN ESTIMATING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF KATIA.  AS THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE\r\nAPPROACHED...THIS DATA BUOY REPORTED PEAK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 76 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80 KT.\r\nTHE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS REDUCED TO 970 MB...ALSO BASED ON\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THIS BUOY.\r\n \r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT KATIA WILL REMAIN AN INTENSE\r\nCYCLONE...OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY...FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE SYSTEM AS A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD...350/12...AS IT MOVES ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND TO THE EAST OF A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT.  A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS KATIA OR ITS\r\nPOST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.  INDEED...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE SYSTEM\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE NEARING THE NORTHERN UNITED KINGDOM.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 32.0N  70.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 33.9N  70.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 36.6N  68.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 39.2N  64.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 41.5N  57.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 48.5N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 56.0N  19.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0600Z 60.0N   5.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":42,"Date":"2011-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KATIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS SINCE IT PASSED VERY CLOSE TO A NOAA BUOY. MOST\r\nOF THE CONVECTION REMAINS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...CONSISTENT\r\nWITH SOME WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON THE PRIOR BUOY OBSERVATION AND CONTINUITY\r\nOF THE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ALSO HELD AT\r\n970 MB. \r\n\r\nKATIA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD...SLIGHTLY FASTER AT 360/15...AND\r\nRELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE\r\nFORECAST TAKES THE REMNANTS OF KATIA NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES IN\r\nABOUT FOUR DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT KATIA WILL REMAIN\r\nA POWERFUL CYCLONE EVEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WESTERLIES.  THE GFS INDICATES THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER THAN SHOWN\r\nBELOW.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 33.6N  70.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 35.6N  69.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 38.3N  66.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 40.7N  61.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 43.2N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 50.0N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 59.0N   9.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1200Z 62.0N   2.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER HOGSETT/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":43,"Date":"2011-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\nCORRECTED 120 HOUR POINT\r\n\r\nCONVECTION PERSISTS NEAR THE CENTER OF KATIA AND CLOUD BANDS HAVE\r\nINCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT\r\nTHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY DEVOID OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCAT\r\nPASS AND TAFB/SAB SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE TAFB/SAB ESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS\r\nFOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY...TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nKATIA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF NORTH...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n005/14. RELIABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO TURN AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM SHOULD PASS NEAR THE BRITISH ISLES IN ABOUT\r\nFIVE DAYS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE TRACK OF KATIA...AND THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nRELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL WEAKEN RATHER\r\nSLOWLY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN LARGE AND POWERFUL AFTER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION AS IT TRAVERSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC. INITIAL WIND RADII\r\nARE ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE RECENT\r\nASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 34.9N  69.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 36.9N  68.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 39.3N  64.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 41.6N  57.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 44.2N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 52.2N  23.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 59.4N   6.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER HOGSETT/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":44,"Date":"2011-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF KATIA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS...AND AN EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT AND EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A SHIELD OF CLOUD TOPS OF -60C AND COLDER. NHC AODT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR A LARGE RAGGED EYE FEATURE ARE\r\n75-80 KT. GIVEN THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURE IS BETTER NOW THAN IT\r\nWAS ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nMAINTAINED AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MIGHT BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\n \r\nKATIA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST NOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 035/18. KATIA HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nLARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 33N LATITUDE AND\r\nIS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nVERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT KATIA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.\r\nONCE THE CYCLONE PASSES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE...IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGET CAUGHT UP IN VERY FAST WESTERLIES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AND\r\nACCELERATE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND EAST AT FORWARD SPEEDS OF NEAR\r\n50 KT. ONCE KATIA MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER BY 36 HOURS... THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF THE FAST MID-LATITUDE FLOW AND SSTS LESS THAN 21C\r\nARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAKING THE\r\nTRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT KATIA HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST...THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS\r\nDECREASED AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW KATIA TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY SINCE DOWNSTREAM BUOYS AHEAD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE ARE INDICATING SSTS OF 27-28C SOUTH OF 40N LATITUDE. BY 36\r\nHOURS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED...BUT KATIA IS STILL\r\nFORECAST TO HAVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY\r\nUNUSUALLY FAST FORWARD SPEEDS ABOVE 35 KT BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH KATIA IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY LOSE ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...THIS CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VERY\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT COULD BRING VERY\r\nSTRONG WINDS TO THE BRITISH ISLES BY MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 36.3N  68.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 38.1N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 40.5N  61.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 42.9N  52.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 46.4N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 54.1N  16.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 61.0N   4.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":45,"Date":"2011-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES WELL ORGANIZED AND IN FACT A DRIFTING\r\nBUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 968 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER WEAKENING IS INDICATED SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY\r\nREACHING COOLER WATERS AND KATIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT 21\r\nKNOTS. SINCE THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES....IT SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nNO 96-HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN BECAUSE FORECAST POINTS IN THE\r\nEASTERN HEMISPHERE BREAK A LOT OF SOFTWARE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 37.6N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 39.5N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 42.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 45.5N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 49.5N  30.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 56.5N  10.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0600Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":46,"Date":"2011-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 75 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH NHC AODT\r\nAND SAB INTENSITY ESTIMATES. DESPITE THE HIGH LATITUDE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...KATIA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/25 KT. KATIA IS WELL NORTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED ALONG 33N LATITUDE...AND WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW ENTERING THE FAST\r\nWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THAT LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE. AS A\r\nRESULT...KATIA IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HURRICANE SHOULD PASS OVER\r\nMUCH COLDER WATER BY 24 HOURS AND BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED MODEL GUIDANCE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS MODEL\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nKATIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 26C BY 12\r\nHOURS...AND OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C BY 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...A\r\nFAIRLY QUICK TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED BY\r\n24 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE MERGING WITH AN APPROACHING\r\nFRONTAL ZONE. ALTHOUGH KATIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE\r\nFORCE BY 36 HOURS...THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTAIN STORM-FORCE WINDS WHEN IT APPROACHES THE\r\nBRITISH ISLES IN 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nNO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO COMPUTATIONAL\r\nISSUES WHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 39.3N  65.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 41.1N  60.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 44.1N  49.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 47.8N  37.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 51.5N  26.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 58.5N   7.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1200Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":47,"Date":"2011-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nDESPITE ITS HIGH LATITUDE LOCATION...KATIA HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE\r\nRAGGED EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS\r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND NHC AODT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/33 KT. KATIA IS NOW EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A SHARP\r\nMID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING QUICKLY\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE LARGE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. KATIA IS MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND IN 18-24 HOURS AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nPOWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCN.\r\n \r\nKATIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 22C BY 12\r\nHOURS...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT TIME.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRANSPORT WARM\r\nUNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF 40N LATITUDE NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...WHICH COULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION A LITTLE LONGER\r\nTHAN USUAL FOR SYSTEMS AT SUCH A HIGH LATITUDE. REGARDLESS...\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY\r\n24 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MERGED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nCOLD FRONT AND BE OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C. ALTHOUGH KATIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN BELOW HURRICANE FORCE BY 36 HOURS...THE LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTAIN\r\nSTORM-FORCE WINDS WHEN IT APPROACHES THE BRITISH ISLES IN 3 DAYS.\r\nINTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPE\r\nSHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UKMET OFFICE AT\r\nWWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/.\r\n \r\nNO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO SOFTWARE\r\nISSUES WHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 40.6N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 42.6N  55.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 46.0N  44.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 49.6N  33.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 53.2N  22.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 60.1N   4.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1800Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":48,"Date":"2011-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA HAS MOVED NORTH OF 40N AND OVER COOLER WATERS...YET IT STILL\r\nMAINTAINS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75\r\nKT...SUPPORTED BY A TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 AND\r\nCONTINUITY OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/32...10 KT FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 2045 UTC SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION OF KATIA IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST...\r\nINDICATING THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS IMPACTING THE HURRICANE. AS KATIA CONTINUES TO\r\nINTERACT WITH THE TROUGH...IT SHOULD FURTHER ACCELERATE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE TRACK CONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n\r\nRELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KATIA WILL WEAKEN BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH LATER SATURDAY. DESPITE THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION OF KATIA...IT WILL REMAIN A POWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT\r\nTRAVERSES THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE STORM-FORCE WIND FIELD IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN LARGE AS KATIA APPROACHES THE BRITISH ISLES BY\r\n48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN\r\nEUROPE SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UKMET OFFICE AT\r\nWWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER/  .\r\n \r\nNO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO SOFTWARE\r\nISSUES WHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 41.3N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 43.5N  50.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 47.3N  37.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 51.1N  25.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 55.6N  15.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 61.6N   1.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0000Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER HOGSETT/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Katia","Adv":49,"Date":"2011-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nCORRECTED STATUS IN TABLE AT 12-HOUR FORECAST TIME\r\n\r\nKATIA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\nTHE ASSOCIATED CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELONGATED...\r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE \r\nCONVECTION. THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT KATIA\r\nHAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nCOLDER THAN 20C...SHOULD CAUSE KATIA TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE\r\nSTRONG AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHILE MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE\r\nFAR NORTH ATLANTIC....APPROACHING THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN\r\nEUROPE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n  \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...\r\nAND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/38. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITHIN THE\r\nSTRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF A HIGH LATITUDE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nGUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND NORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD\r\nMONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UKMET OFFICE AT\r\nWWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER\r\n \r\nNO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO SOFTWARE\r\nISSUES WHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE. THE 34- AND\r\n50-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED OUTWARD OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nBASED ON A 0144 UTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 43.3N  53.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 46.0N  44.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 50.2N  32.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 53.9N  21.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 57.3N  13.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 61.3N   1.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0600Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Katia","Adv":50,"Date":"2011-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122011\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nKATIA HAS LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT STILL REMAINS \r\nA POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF KATIA PASSED JUST\r\nNORTH OF CANADIAN BUOY 44140 AROUND 11Z...AND THE BUOY REPORTED A\r\nPRESSURE OF 957 MB WITH 31 KT WINDS. BASED ON THAT INFORMATION...\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF KATIA IS ESTIMATED TO BE 954 MB. AT\r\n12Z...THE SAME BUOY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 62 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION JUSTIFIES KEEPING\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A VERY BRISK 060/46 KT. KATIA IS EMBEDDED\r\nIN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION.\r\nPOWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATIA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY. THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nTVCN...AND GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nKATIA HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED BY AT LEAST 10 MB OVER THE PAST\r\n24 HOURS...THESE PRESSURE FALLS ARE ATTRIBUTED TO THE INCREASE IN\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY ACROSS THE SYSTEM AND NOT DUE TO CONVECTIVE\r\nFEEDBACK. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE KATIA HAS MERGED WITH A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THE VERY WARM AND MOIST\r\nAIR TO THE SOUTH AND COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONTAL\r\nBOUNDARY SHOULD ACT TO KEEP KATIA AS A STRONG POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nUNTIL IT REACHES THE BRITISH ISLES ON MONDAY. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF NHC INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE AND INPUT\r\nFROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. CURRENT WIND RADII WERE\r\nADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT BUOY REPORTS...AND FORECAST WIND RADII\r\nWERE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nNO 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN PROVIDED DUE TO SOFTWARE ISSUES\r\nWHEN SYSTEMS MOVE EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED ON KATIA BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER...INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BRITISH ISLES AND\r\nNORTHERN EUROPE SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR FUTURE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY\r\nTHE UK MET OFFICE AT WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/WEATHER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 44.7N  47.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 47.5N  38.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 51.5N  27.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 54.5N  19.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 57.5N  11.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 61.0N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/1200Z...EAST OF ZERO DEGREES LONGITUDE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-09-02 00:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n700 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...SURFACE...AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS\r\nACQUIRED A CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT IS DEFINED ENOUGH TO BE\r\nCONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL REGION\r\nSTILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nAND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nLARGE ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  IN FACT...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.   THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN WEAK\r\nSTEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE NHC TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0000Z 26.6N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 27.5N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 28.2N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 28.7N  92.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 29.3N  92.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 30.1N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 31.1N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  06/1800Z 32.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n1000 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...NEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE\r\nDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AND RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS\r\nSCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE OVERNIGHT.  A SHEAR ANALYSIS\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER THE GULF.  THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESULT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.\r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION...STRENGTHENING \r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE GRADUAL.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nNEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH THIS EVENING...AND THE HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 315/2 KT.   SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nSTILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER COULD REFORM WITHIN THE\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  THIS POSSIBILITY \r\nIS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...WHICH SHOWS THE CENTER REFORMING FARTHER\r\nNORTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nWEAK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE DEPRESSION REMAINS TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.  AS THE RIDGE SLIDES\r\nEASTWARD...IT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...\r\nTHEN NORTHEASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWS LITTLE\r\nOVERALL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE AND LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND EAST OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nTHE SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS LIKELY\r\nTO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 26.6N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 27.5N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 28.0N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 28.6N  92.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 29.2N  92.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 29.7N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 30.5N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  07/0000Z 31.5N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n400 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN HAS A ELONGATED\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION...WITH THE ELONGATION CURRENTLY FROM\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS\r\nCURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH A STRONG BURST HAS RECENTLY\r\nFORMED NEAR THE EAST-NORTHEASTERN END OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT OVERPASS AND REPORTS\r\nFROM OIL RIGS IN THE NORTHERN GULF.  WHILE THERE IS GOOD OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 315/2.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS EVOLUTION\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW SHOW THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS ENOUGH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THEM\r\nTO KEEP THIS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS FOR THE FIRST THREE DAYS OF THE FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER COULD CAUSE ERRATIC MOTION\r\nAND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...RESULTING IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT...AT\r\nBEST...WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THIS\r\nINTERACTION...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...SUGGESTS THAT STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE STRONGER SHIPS AND WEAKER LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE SIZE AND SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS\r\nIS LIKELY TO PRODUCE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 26.5N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 27.0N  92.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 27.6N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 28.2N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 28.8N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 29.5N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 30.5N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  07/0600Z 31.5N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA \r\nINDICATE THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHIRTEEN HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA\r\nOF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OF -80C AND COLDER HAVING DEVELOPED IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS YET TO TRANSLATE INTO AN INCREASE IN THE SURFACE\r\nWINDS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HAS ONLY\r\nMANAGED TO FIND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL OF 37-38 KT. OIL RIG\r\nOBSERVATIONS WELL ABOVE THE SURFACE ALSO SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS\r\nSTILL A DEPRESSION.   \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY...TRAPPED IN A FLAT\r\nRIDGE PATTERN THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM A 700-400 MB HEIGHT\r\nCENTER LOCATED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. NARROW RIDGE\r\nAXES EXTEND SOUTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND ALSO SOUTHWESTWARD TO\r\nSOUTH TEXAS...WHICH IS EFFECTIVELY BLOCKING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION.\r\nA DEEP TROUGH THAT IS AMPLIFYING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO. BY 48 HOURS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK\r\nDOWN AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN\r\nAND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WEAK PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. HOWEVER...THE FORWARD SPEED IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE\r\nAROUND 5 KT...WHICH IS GOING TO EXACERBATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nTHREAT OVER LOUISIANA AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE\r\nMORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES JUST EAST OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A SMALL\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBEEN WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS ALLOWED\r\nTHE WIND SHEAR TO DECREASE AND ALSO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHEAST. DISSIPATION OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ITS ATTENDANT\r\nDRY AIR INFLUENCE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN.  GIVEN\r\nTHE SLOW MOTION...LESSENING SHEAR...AND VERY WARM SSTS NEAR 30C THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...WITH THE STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 27.3N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 27.6N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 28.2N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 28.8N  91.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 29.7N  91.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 29.8N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 31.0N  88.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  07/1200Z 33.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n400 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM SATELLITES...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...DOPPLER RADARS AND AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE TROPICAL STORM\r\nLEE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT\r\nWARMING OF CLOUD TOPS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nBUOY AND OIL RIG REPORTS OF 39-42 KT...ALONG WITH RELIABLE RECON\r\nSFMR WINDS OF 38-40 KT...JUSTIFY INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 2 KT.\r\nLEE REMAINS TRAPPED IN A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING PATTERN THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A DEEP\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AMPLIFIES AND\r\nDIGS SOUTHWARD. BY 48 HOURS...THE NARROW RIDGE TO THE WEST OF LEE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS FROM DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD TO MISSOURI IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO SLOWLY ERODE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY GAIN LATITUDE AND MOVE TOWARD LOUISIANA. A\r\nWEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN\r\nAND CENTRAL PLAINS BY 72 HOURS SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER...ALBEIT LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT...FORWARD MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. BY DAY 4 OR 5...A\r\nWEAKENED LEE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL OVER THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE\r\nSLOW FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL SCENARIO OVER LOUISIANA AND POINTS NORTHEASTWARD. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFS... UKMET...AND ECMWF MODEL TRACKS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LEE HAS BECOME ENTANGLED WITH A\r\nSMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW. ALTHOUGH THIS CONFIGURATION SOMETIMES LEADS\r\nTO A RAPID SPIN UP OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL VORTEX...VERY DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS UNFAVORABLE CONDITION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE FOR THE NEXT 12-36 HOURS...DESPITE THE VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT AND THE CYCLONE BEING OVER VERY\r\nWARM SSTS DURING THIS TIME. BY 48 HOURS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO CAP OFF THE STRENGTHENING\r\nPROCESS AS LEE ALSO MOVES OVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE NHC INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS ABOVE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BELOW THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 27.5N  91.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 27.9N  91.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 28.5N  91.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 29.2N  91.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 29.7N  91.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 30.1N  89.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 31.5N  88.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  07/1800Z 33.6N  86.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011\r\n \r\nSATALLITE...SURFACE...AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nLEE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING.  THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT\r\nDEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS BEEN EXPANDING IN SIZE THIS\r\nEVENING.  WIND REPORTS FROM BUOYS AND OIL RIGS OVER THE GULF AND\r\nDATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM REMAINS AROUND 40 KT.\r\n \r\nLEE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT\r\nIS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAND SLIDE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW LEE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AS\r\nTHE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS...THE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT LEE WILL SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER NEAR OR OVER\r\nSOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nINTERACT WITH THE CYCLONE AND LEE SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AT A\r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. \r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...\r\nHOWEVER THERE ARE SOME LARGE DIFFERENCE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF LEE\r\nESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION.  IT\r\nIS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF LEE...SINCE\r\nTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXTEND WELL AWAY OF\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n \r\nA SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF LEE CONTINUES TO \r\nIMPART ABOUT 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS UPPER-LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER AIR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH LANDFALL AND\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 28.2N  91.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 28.6N  91.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 29.4N  91.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 30.0N  91.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 30.2N  91.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 31.5N  89.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 34.0N  87.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/0000Z 35.5N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n400 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n\r\nSURFACE AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT LEE HAS STRENGTHENED A\r\nLITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE MAXIMUM WINDS NOW\r\nNEAR 45 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 995 MB.  THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE AN ELONGATED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND A LARGE\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...AND THIS...COMBINED WITH THE GENERAL\r\nAPPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT LEE HAS AT LEAST\r\nSOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS\r\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING\r\nABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH VERY CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM...AND WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS TENDED TO REFORM FROM TIME TO TIME...WHICH MAKES THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 345/6 RATHER UNCERTAIN.  MOST TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE NOW AGREES THAT LEE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 48 HR\r\nAS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH SLOWLY WEAKENS...FIRST GENERALLY NORTHWARD \r\nINTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND THEN GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD.  AFTER 48\r\nHR...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nFASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME\r\nSIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE EXACT SPEED. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION...THEN LIES\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FROM 36 HOURS ONWARD.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THAT THE CURRENT ISSUES WITH SHEAR AND DRY AIR HAVE NOT YET\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED DEVELOPMENT...LEE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  WEAKENING AFTER LANDFALL IS LIKELY\r\nTO BE SLOWER THAN NORMAL TO THE THE MARSHY NATURE OF THE LOUISIANA\r\nCOAST AND THE AMOUNT OF THE CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD REMAIN OVER\r\nWATER.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEE IS FORECAST TO MERGE\r\nWITH AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNUSUAL OCCURRENCE IN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WINDS AND RAINS OF LEE EXTEND FAR FROM\r\nTHE CENTER...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 28.8N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 29.3N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 30.0N  91.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 30.5N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 31.0N  90.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 32.5N  88.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 35.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/0600Z 37.0N  82.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS\r\nINDICATE THAT LEE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THIS MORNING. LONG\r\nPATCHES OF DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 58-70 KT BETWEEN 2500-9500 FEET IN\r\nAREAS OF 35-45 DBZ RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEEN NOTED OVER WATER AND OVER\r\nLAND IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. RECON DATA ALSO INDICATED\r\n60-KT 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA AS THE\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES. THIS INFORMATION SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHERE ARE TWO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS APPARENT IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORWARD MOTION OF 005/05 KT\r\nIS BASED ON THE MEAN POSITION BETWEEN THOSE TWO VORTICES...WHICH IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE RECON 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER. THE GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. UPPER-AIR DATA THIS MORNING\r\nINDICATES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BLOCKING HIGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS BEGINNING TO ERODE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS STATES MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD.\r\nWEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nSLOWLY LIFT LEE NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...LEE IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY ON\r\nDAYS 2-3. BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER...LEE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH IS VERY\r\nACLIMATOLOGICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE MODELS DIFFER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE TRACK OF LEE ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 WITH THE ECMWF KEEPING LEE UNDER A LARGE CUTOFF LOW FORECAST\r\nTO DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS RACE\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF LEE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER A MORE PROGRESSIVE\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE\r\nECMWF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE NHC TRACK LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nECMWF MODEL IN MOVING LEE MORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND LIES TO RIGHT OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS USING THE\r\nECMWF MODEL TRACK SPEEDS.\r\n\r\nLEE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN MUCH...IF ANY...DUE TO THE\r\nENTRAINMENT OF AN ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY AIR INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE VERY LARGE SIZE OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED EVEN AFTER LEE\r\nMOVES INLAND OVER LOUISIANA LATER TODAY. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE\r\nEXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE BASED ON 43-KT SUSTAINED WINDS\r\nREPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 42040.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE WINDS AND RAINS OF LEE EXTEND FAR FROM\r\nTHE CENTER...SO IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS TOO MUCH ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 29.3N  91.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 29.7N  91.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 30.3N  91.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 30.9N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 31.4N  90.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 33.0N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 35.0N  84.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1200Z 37.5N  81.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n400 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF LEE HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES ONLY SUPPORT\r\nABOUT 45 KT SURFACE WINDS...THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT STRONGER WINDS\r\nEXIST IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION THAT RECON AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND WHICH LIES BEYOND THE RANGE OF THE GROUND-BASED\r\nRADARS. SINCE THE PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DROP AND IS NOW DOWN TO\r\n989 MB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE TWO LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY APPEAR TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO ONE MAIN VORTEX NOW NEAR\r\nMARSH ISLAND LOUISIANA. BASED ON THIS POSITION...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 360/03 KT. THE LATEST GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS...EXCLUDING THE HWRF MODEL...ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nNOW AND ARE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS. A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF A\r\nBLOCKING HIGH...WHICH WILL ALLOW LEE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BYPASS LEE AND LEAVE THE CYCLONE EMBEDDED ONCE AGAIN IN\r\nWEAK STEERING FLOW. BY 72 HOURS...A SECOND TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED\r\nCOLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO NUDGE LEE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...AND\r\nBEGIN TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nEVOLVES INTO A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS\r\nBY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE ECMWF TRACK.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE...IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT LEE COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY WHEN CLOUD TOPS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO COOL IN THE LARGE BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR LEE TO REMAIN STEADY FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OR WHERE\r\nTHE CENTER OF LEE EVENTUALLY MAKES LANDFALL SINCE THE STRONGEST\r\nWINDS AND HEAVIEST RAINS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 29.4N  92.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 29.8N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 30.2N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 30.5N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 31.2N  89.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 33.0N  87.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 34.5N  85.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1800Z 37.0N  83.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 03 2011\r\n \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF LEE HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA THIS EVENING.  AN OIL PLATFORM LOCATED\r\nABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF MARSH ISLAND HAS BEEN REPORTING A PRESSURE\r\nOF AROUND 988 MB MOST OF THE EVENING.  THE WINDS AT THAT SITE WERE\r\nVARIABLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS...BUT RECENTLY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AROUND 15-20 KT INDICATING THAT THE CENTER OF LEE REMAINS\r\nOFFSHORE.  THE HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATIONS DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS ARE 40-44 KT AT SEVERAL ELEVATED RIGS OFF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.  BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  LEE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER\r\nWATER...LEE WILL LIKELY REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLEE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT\r\nTHAT SHOULD TURN LEE EASTWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST LEE WILL BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS...A SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE\r\nIN THIS AREA AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO NOW INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nAPPALACHIANS IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD THROUGH 24 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE\r\nCENTER IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 29.4N  92.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 30.0N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 30.4N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 30.7N  90.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 32.0N  89.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 34.0N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 36.5N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n400 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE IS\r\nVERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF LOUISIANA.  THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nREDUCED TO 40 KT WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE SUSTAINED\r\nSURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT HIGHER WINDS ARE\r\nSTILL OCCURRING AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.  LEE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER THE FLAT TERRAIN OF EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA\r\nTODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER\r\nWATER.  THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  BY 48 HOURS OR\r\nSOONER...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nFRONTAL ZONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION TO HAVE OCCURRED BY THAT TIME.  BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM\r\nTHOSE SAME GLOBAL MODELS...DISSIPATION IS LIKELY AFTER 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT OR ABOUT 360/2.  LEE IS IN A\r\nCOL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...I.E. WITHIN VERY WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS...AT THIS TIME.  A TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nU.S. IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE LEFT AS IT MOVES ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE\r\nOF THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND VERY\r\nSIMILAR THEREAFTER.  THIS IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSINCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND VERY FAR FROM THE\r\nCENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER OF LEE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 29.6N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 30.0N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 30.3N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 30.8N  90.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 32.0N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 34.5N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 37.0N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT LEE\r\nFINALLY MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING\r\nAROUND 11Z ABOUT 10 NMI SOUTH OF INTRACOASTAL CITY. RECENT DOPPLER\r\nRADAR DATA INDICATE BANDS OF CONVECTION HAVE FORMED OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND EXTEND\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SOME OF THESE BANDS HAVE\r\nCONTAINED DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 65-72 KT FROM 8000-12000 FT IN\r\n35-45 DBZ ECHOES...WITH MEAN VALUES OF AT LEAST 60 KT. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHESE DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES WOULD TYPICALLY EQUATE TO SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 50-55 KT...THE SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF THESE NEW CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS SUGGESTS THAT ANY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE VERY\r\nTRANSIENT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED\r\nON WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 42040...BUT THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL IN\r\nTHE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT FROM THE\r\nSTANDARD 50-KT GUST VALUE IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE STRONGER\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITIES THAT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.\r\n\r\nLEE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 040/03 KT. THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. LEE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AND ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. AFTER THAT...A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS\r\nAND GRADUALLY LIFT LEE NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...\r\nBUT STILL AT LESS THAN 10 KT. BY 48 HOURS...LEE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE\r\nWITH A FAIRLY BRISK FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...AND\r\nBECOME A LARGE SLOW-MOVING EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT THE FORWARD SPEED WAS DECREASED\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS...\r\nTVCN AND TVCA.\r\n \r\nLEE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE RAIN-SATURATED FLAT TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN\r\nAND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TODAY...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINING OVER WATER. AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD ALSO\r\nGENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER LAND AND NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH COULD ADD SOME ENERGY TO THE CYCLONE. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE SLOWLY\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THE TYPICAL INLAND DECAY RATE FOR INLAND TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES. \r\n \r\nSINCE HEAVY RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE\r\nVALUES ARE OCCURRING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT\r\nTO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF LEE. THE PRIMARY \r\nTHREAT FROM LEE WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 29.9N  91.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 30.1N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 30.6N  90.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 31.4N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 32.6N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 34.5N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 36.5N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lee","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n \r\nWSR-88D RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LEE HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS WELL\r\nINLAND NOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA. OTHER THAN THE STRONG\r\nBURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER...NARROW BANDS OF MODEST CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHICH EXTEND\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES. SOME\r\nOF THESE BANDS HAVE CONTAINED DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 60-68 KT FROM\r\n4500-10000 FT IN 25-35 DBZ ECHOES...WITH MEAN VALUES OF ABOUT 55\r\nKT. ALTHOUGH THESE DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES WOULD TYPICALLY\r\nTRANSLATE TO SURFACE WINDS OF 45-50 KT...THE WEAK ECHO RETURNS\r\nSUGGEST THAT HIGHER WIND SPEEDS WILL MAINLY OCCUR IN GUSTS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON SUSTAINED\r\nWIND REPORT OF 40 KT FROM THE BURAS C-MAN STATION...AND THE GUST\r\nDIFFERENTIAL IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT REMAINS AT 55 KT...\r\nWHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE STANDARD 50-KT GUST VALUE IN\r\nORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE TRANSIENT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT NOTED IN\r\nDOPPLER VELOCITY DATA.\r\n \r\nLEE HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A\r\nVIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED. BY 36 HOURS...\r\nA PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS TO BREAK OFF AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THIS\r\nMID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC INTERACTION...COUPLED WITH ABSORPTION BY A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM...IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION LEE INTO A LARGE\r\nLOW-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE\r\nVALLEY BY DAYS 2-4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS...\r\nTVCN AND TVCA.\r\n \r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING LEE TO\r\nREMAIN A TROPICAL STORM OR EXTRATROPICAL GALE AREA FOR THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GETS A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN\r\nUPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS TREND WAS FOLLOWED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...AND IS A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL ICON...AND INPUT FROM THE NHC TAFB UNIT.\r\n \r\nSINCE HEAVY RAINS...STRONG WINDS...AND THE HIGHEST STORM SURGE\r\nVALUES ARE OCCURRING VERY FAR FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT\r\nTO FOCUS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER OF LEE. THE PRIMARY\r\nTHREAT FROM LEE WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 30.6N  91.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 30.7N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 31.2N  89.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 32.3N  88.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 33.3N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 34.8N  86.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 36.0N  86.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lee","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132011\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2011\r\n \r\nLAND INTERACTION AND CONTINENTAL AIR SEEN IN THE GOES SOUNDER\r\nAIRMASS PRODUCT WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nHAVE TAKEN A TOLL ON LEE THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDECREASED BOTH NEAR THE CENTER AND OFFSHORE AND WINDS HAVE STEADILY\r\nDECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...EVEN AT THE ELEVATED OIL\r\nPLATFORMS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THEREFORE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 30 KT...WITH THESE WINDS FOUND ONLY\r\nWELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER.  \r\n\r\nLEE IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH\r\nWARM/COASTAL FRONTOGENESIS UNDERWAY EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN\r\nTHE PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS. AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT\r\nWITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE\r\nMISSISSIPPI VALLEY...LEE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS WHEN\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE\r\nAND THE CIRCULATION MERGING WITH A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.\r\nAS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A 6-12\r\nHOUR PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS\r\nHAZARD WILL BE HANDLED BY MARINE PRODUCTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. AFTER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND\r\nDISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nLEE HAS MADE ITS TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 060/06. AS THE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS OFF\r\nINTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...LEE WILL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nAS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE CUTOFF. THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...SHOWING A SHARPER TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTH...AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.   \r\n\r\nTHE MAIN HAZARD FROM LEE AND ITS REMNANTS WILL BE VERY HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL SPREADING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO THE\r\nTENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nPLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE\r\nON THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT. \r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON LEE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT3\r\nAND WMO HEADER WTNT33 KWNH...BEGINNING AT 4 AM CDT. FOR MARINE\r\nINTERESTS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 31.0N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 31.3N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 32.3N  88.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 33.6N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 34.8N  86.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED\r\nWITHIN THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN\r\nBANDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED PRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE LEADING TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON A DEVELOPING\r\nTREND...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE PATH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...\r\nFOLLOWING THE LGEM MODEL. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE AS\r\nIT NEARS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. \r\n \r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS JUST FORMED AND WE DID NOT HAVE A WELL\r\nDEFINED CENTER BEFORE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS PATTERN\r\nIS FORECAST TO PERSIST...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE GFS MOVING THE CYCLONE VERY FAST ON\r\nA WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...AND THE ECMWF A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THESE\r\nTWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE GRADUALLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS BIASED A LITTLE SLOWER TOWARD THE\r\nECMWF.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 11.8N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 12.3N  39.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 12.9N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 13.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 14.5N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 17.0N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 19.5N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nWERE 2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...AND THAT REMAINS THE\r\nINTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nTHROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING THROUGH\r\nNEXT 5 DAYS...WITH GENERALLY LOW SHEAR AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN\r\nSSTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY\r\nENTHUSIASTIC AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR OR A\r\nLITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...YIELDING AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 280/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE REACHES THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nWHILE THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AMONG THE\r\nMODELS. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FASTEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE\r\nECMWF AND UKMET ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE NEW\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH\r\nTHE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. THROUGH 72 HOURS A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE\r\nTO THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 11.6N  38.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 12.2N  40.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 12.9N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 13.6N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 14.4N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.0N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 18.0N  63.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 21.0N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT THE CYCLONE WAS NEAR\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH\r\nAGENCIES ARE 2.0...WHICH DO NOT SUPPORT NAMING THE SYSTEM AT THIS\r\nTIME.  NORMALLY WE WOULD EXPECT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IN THIS LOCATION AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.  MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...DOES NOT CALL FOR MUCH OF AN INCREASE\r\nIN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  THE REASONS FOR THIS ARE\r\nNOT CLEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES SHOW A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OR SHEAR AXIS ABOUT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.  LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS CONSIDERABLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION...BUT IT IS ONE OF FEW MODELS TO DO SO. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT\r\nQUITE CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HURRICANE FORECAST\r\nIMPROVEMENT PROJECT...HFIP...MODELS.  THIS IS ALSO THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME SCATTER IN THE CENTER FIXES...BUT A SMOOTHED\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/17.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME\r\nADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY DAYS 2-3...HOWEVER...THE\r\nRIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTO THE RIGHT WITH DECREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD...WITH THE GFDL AND GFS\r\nAMONG THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS AND THE ECMWF AND HWRF\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR OR A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 12.0N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 12.6N  42.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 13.3N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 14.0N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 14.6N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 16.7N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 19.5N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 22.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nCONSIDERING THAT THERE WERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN AN EARLIER\r\nASCAT PASS AND A RECENT ONE WITH STRONGER WINDS...THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nBEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MARIA WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n45 KNOTS. THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AT THIS TIME AND THE ONLY\r\nIMPRESSIVE FEATURE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A CURVED BAND TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WILL BE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DUE TO\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR\r\nLGEM DEVELOPS THE CYCLONE TOO MUCH. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODEL IS\r\nTHE GFDL AND IT ONLY INTENSIFIES THE CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN SUCH GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING ONLY.\r\n \r\nMARIA IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS...WHICH ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...KEEP MARIA ON\r\nTHIS GENERAL HEADING WITH THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nONCE MARIA REACHES THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN A LITTLE BIT AND THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD THEN BEGIN. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nWHICH IS BOUNDED BY THE GFS ON THE NORTH AND THE ECMWF ON THE\r\nSOUTH.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 13.0N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 13.5N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 14.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 14.5N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 15.5N  56.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 17.5N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 20.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 23.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS APPARENTLY WELL ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES...BUT NOT REALLY. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION AND MOST OF THE ORGANIZED\r\nRAINBANDS ARE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS WAS CONFIRMED BY RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nBECOMING DISRUPTED DUE A DEVELOPING WIND SHEAR AS FORECAST BY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE SHEAR IS INCREASING...BUT\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETELY HOSTILE TO THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR\r\nIN COMBINATION WITH THE RAPID FORWARD SPEED SUPPORT KEEPING MARIA\r\nWITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH FIVE DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nTHE LGEM. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL INSISTS ON INTENSIFICATION. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS APPROACHING NOAA BUOY 41041...SO WE WILL LIKELY KNOW\r\nMORE ABOUT THE STRUCTURE OF MARIA LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE AVERAGE MOTION HAS BEEN TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20\r\nKNOTS. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT FORECASTING MARIA TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A\r\nRAPID PACE. THEREAFTER...IT IS DEJA VU ALL OVER AGAIN WITH THE\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS HAS BEEN THE\r\nSCENARIO OBSERVED DURING THE TWO OR THREE PREVIOUS RECURVING\r\nCYCLONES THIS SEASON. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...SOME MODELS LIKE THE GFS\r\nAND HWRF TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AND THE ECMWF\r\nAND UK PROLONGING THE EVENTUAL NORTHWARD TURN A LITTLE LONGER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS...AS USUAL...A BLEND OF THESE GUIDANCE.\r\n   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 13.2N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 13.6N  47.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 14.5N  51.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 15.0N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 16.0N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 18.5N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 22.0N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 25.0N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB...WHILE NOAA BUOY 41041 JUST REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF\r\n43 KT.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A FAST 275/20.  MARIA IS CURRENTLY ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THIS\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE STORM MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO.  FROM 24-72 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD APPROACH A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HOURS AS\r\nMARIA APPROACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nWHILE THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...\r\nTHERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE WESTERLY GFDL/ECMWF\r\nAND THE MORE EASTERLY GFS/NOGAPS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS...THEN IS CLOSE TO THE THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.  THE NEW TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nSIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO CALL FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT MARIA MAY FIND A DECREASED SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nNEAR THE STORM MAKES THIS UNCERTAIN.  ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS STRENGTHENING AFTER 72 HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 13.4N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 13.7N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 14.3N  53.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 15.1N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 16.1N  59.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 19.0N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 22.5N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 25.5N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n\r\nMARIA CURRENTLY HAS A RATHER DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...AND CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A RATHER SHAPELESS CLUSTER OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CLUSTER.  THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...EVIDENCE OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 KT.  HOWEVER...DATA FROM THIS PASS ALSO\r\nCAST SOME DOUBT AS TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nAT THIS TIME.  VISIBLE IMAGERY AND AN AIRCRAFT MISSION LATER TODAY\r\nSHOULD GIVE MORE INFORMATION ON THE STATUS OF MARIA.  \r\n\r\nNO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM HAS BEEN IMPARTING ABOUT 20 KT\r\nOF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND\r\nINHIBITING STRENGTHENING.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS\r\nLOW/TROUGH WILL MOVE MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH MARIA THROUGH\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS...AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ON THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE IMPACT OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN.  THE NHC WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT IT IS PRESUMED THAT\r\nMARIA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 275/20. A CONTINUED WESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS LIKELY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AS THE STORM MOVES ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. SOME DECELERATION IS\r\nPREDICTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS A LITTLE WITH TIME. IN 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE NEARING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AS USUAL...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK 4 TO 5 DAYS FROM NOW. A BROAD 500 MB\r\nTROUGH...MOVING OFF THE U.S EAST COAST...IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MARIA TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS. IF THE TROUGH TURNS OUT TO BE WEAKER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY PREDICTED...IT COULD DELAY THE NORTHWESTWARD TURN.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ROUGHLY \r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BRACKETED BY THE\r\nU.K. MET OFFICE MODEL ON THE LEFT AND BY THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS ON\r\nTHE RIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 13.5N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 13.8N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 14.5N  54.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 15.3N  57.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 16.7N  60.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 19.5N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 23.0N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 26.0N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA IS MOVING VERY FAST...AT ABOUT 19-22 KNOTS...AND PROBABLY NO\r\nLONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nWILL CHECK IF THAT IS THE CASE LATER TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED AND\r\nCONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE\r\nWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE RAINBANDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS AND THIS\r\nIS THE INTENSITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.\r\nHOWEVER...EVEN IF MARIA DEGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL\r\nWAVE...CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO\r\nREGENERATE AS IT SLOWS DOWN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NOT AS\r\nHOSTILE AS THEY WERE INDICATING IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT NONE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS SHOW AN AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE\r\nCARIBBEAN. \r\n\r\nMARIA IS SOUTH OF A PERSISTENT AND LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS\r\nFOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\nAFTER THAT...A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED. GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nARE CLUSTERED HAVING MARIA OVER OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL\r\nBAHAMAS IN FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 13.0N  51.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 13.0N  54.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 13.8N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 14.5N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 16.0N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 19.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 22.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 25.0N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE.  MARIA CONSISTS OF A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF CONVECTION MAINLY TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER. IN FACT...MARIA PERHAPS NO LONGER HAS A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY\r\nAPPROACHING THE CYCLONE TO DETERMINE IF THAT IS THE CASE. NOAA BUOY\r\n41040 RECENTLY REPORTED 35 KNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND\r\nTHIS IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSIGNED TO MARIA. GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nLACK OF ORGANIZATION...AN ENVIRONMENT NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE FACT THAT THE LGEM...ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS\r\nDO NOT STRENGTHEN MARIA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING.  THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT\r\nSHOW ANY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED NORTH OF\r\nPUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH\r\nHAS BEEN KEPT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE\r\nISLANDS SHOULD BE READY TO QUICKLY ISSUE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS...IF NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING. MARIA CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG\r\nEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nTRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHT GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE. THIS INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST BUT\r\nTHE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ABOUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 13.2N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 13.4N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 14.0N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 15.5N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 17.0N  63.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 20.0N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 23.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 25.5N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 08 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF MARIA HAS STABILIZED THIS EVENING...ALBEIT IN A\r\nRATHER DISORGANIZED CONDITION.  PATCHES OF CONVECTION ARE OCCURRING\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC\r\nROTATION...WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DUE TO COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS...THE\r\nAIRCRAFT THAT INVESTIGATED MARIA WAS UNABLE TO TRANSMIT A FULL DATA\r\nSET.  THEREFORE...IT WAS NOT DETERMINED WITH CERTAINTY WHETHER A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTED.  HOWEVER...THE PLANE\r\nMEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1005 MB...SHOWING THAT AT THE VERY\r\nLEAST A LOW PRESSURE CENTER STILL EXISTED.  BASED ON THIS...MARIA\r\nIS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n35 KT IS BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT BUOY REPORTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...A WEAKNESS POSSIBLY CAUSED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 23N61W.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...THE CURRENT RAPID MOTION SUGGESTS THIS TURN\r\nWILL BE MORE GRADUAL THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING...AND\r\nTHUS THE FIRST PART OF THE NEW TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 24 HOURS...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS\r\nMARIA TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES\r\nTHROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER SHIFTING TO THE LEFT\r\nFOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE GUIDANCE FOR THE POST-24 HOUR\r\nPERIOD HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL SHOW A SMALL RIGHT TURN...BUT STILL LIES TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL TO THE WEST OF THE NEW\r\nFORECAST AT 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BECOME A BIT MORE BULLISH THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS NO LONGER FORECASTING\r\nMARIA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION.  INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS AND REMAINING THAT LIGHT THROUGH 96 HOURS.  GIVEN THE\r\nPRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE FORECAST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERNS OF THE VARIOUS MODELS...THAT MIGHT BE A\r\nBIT OPTIMISTIC.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MARIA TO\r\nMAINTAIN A 35-KT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS REQUIRES\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 13.3N  54.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 13.5N  57.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 14.7N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 16.3N  62.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 17.8N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 21.0N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 23.5N  73.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 26.0N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS BUT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED. SURFACE\r\nPRESSURES ARE FALLING...AS INDICATED BY BUOY 41101 WHICH RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1003.7 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 35 KNOTS AT THIS TIME...AND A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL\r\nCHECK MARIA AROUND 1200 UTC. THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nNOT AS HOSTILE AS IT WAS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT\r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUCH GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nMARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17\r\nKNOTS. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS NOW FORECAST A WEAKER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. ON THAT BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE NORTH BUT IT IS ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NEW\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN CASE MODELS SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH IN THE\r\nNEXT CYCLE.  GIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 13.8N  56.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 16.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 17.5N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 19.0N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 22.0N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 24.0N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 27.0N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION OVERNIGHT\r\nAND THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MARIA.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED VERY\r\nMUCH.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND\r\nSOUTHWEST AND LIGHT WEST WINDS...BUT IT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO LOCATE\r\nA WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE ENOUGH\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATING A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION THAT\r\nJUSTIFIES MAINTAINING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 42 KT TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nWHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY...THEREFORE HAS BEEN RAISED TO 40 KT...BASED ON DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AHEAD OF MARIA DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE\r\nMODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT\r\n2-3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  LATER IN THE PERIOD THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH\r\nAS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/15. MARIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC.  IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A TROUGH\r\nMOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS A\r\nWEAKER CYCLONE THAT CONTINUES MORE WESTWARD.  THE UPDATED NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE\r\nGFS..WHICH TURNS MARIA NORTHWARD IN 4-5 DAYS...AND THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED ECMWF. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 14.2N  57.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 15.1N  59.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 16.5N  62.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 17.9N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 19.3N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 22.0N  69.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 24.0N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 27.5N  73.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ORGANIZATION OF MARIA SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON REVEALED\r\nSEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...BUT RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM\r\nGUADELOUPE SHOW WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND SOME WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  BEFORE DEPARTING MARIA...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...WHICH\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW\r\nINDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS...ALLOWING FOR A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CURRENT LACK OF INNER-CORE STRUCTURE SUGGESTS \r\nTHAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY TO BE MORE GRADUAL THAN INDICATED BY\r\nSOME OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. \r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT MARIA HAS SLOWED DOWN TODAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SURFACE CENTER REFORMS\r\nCLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. IN FACT...\r\nTHIS MAY BE WHY THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER NORTH ACROSS\r\nTHE LEEWARD ISLANDS. PARTLY FOR THIS REASON...THE NEW TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING MARIA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD AS A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CLOSER TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 14.8N  58.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 15.8N  60.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 17.2N  62.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 18.7N  64.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 20.0N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 22.7N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 25.5N  71.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 31.0N  71.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE THIS EVENING...AND THERE HAS BEEN EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC\r\nROTATION IN RADAR DISPLAYS FROM BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...AND\r\nGUADELOUPE.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO ANY\r\nINCREASED ORGANIZATION IN THE WIND FIELD ACCORDING TO DATA FROM AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.  THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT\r\nFIND STRONG WINDS DURING ITS MISSION...ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY DID NOT\r\nSAMPLE FAR ENOUGH FROM THE CENTER TO MEASURE THE STRONG WINDS IN\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT\r\nBASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM A FRENCH BUOY EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS FARTHER NORTH.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12.  MARIA IS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE STORM NEAR\r\n24N63W.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR\r\n48 HOURS OR SO...THEN WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT\r\nMARIA WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...\r\nTHEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE\r\nTO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nDOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF...AND SLOWER...THAN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS DEVELOPED A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY FORECASTS THE STORM TO STRENGTHEN...\r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nINITIAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT RATE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...\r\nTHEN CATCHES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...MARIA IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS\r\nFOR HOW THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW MARIA WEAKENING DUE TO THE INTERACTION.  THE LATTER\r\nPART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 15.1N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 16.2N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 17.8N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 19.3N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 20.8N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 23.5N  70.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 27.5N  71.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 34.0N  69.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA LOOKS DISORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT IT DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CLOSED CIRCULATION AT THE\r\nSURFACE. HOWEVER A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED WINDS OF NEAR 43\r\nKNOTS TO THE NORTH OF THE ALLEDGED CENTER ON ITS WAY TO THE\r\nBASE. IN ADDITION...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES\r\nAND THE GUADELOUPE RADAR STILL SHOW A BROAD CIRCULATION. I AM NOT\r\nREADY TO WRITE THIS ONE OFF YET AND MARIA IS KEPT AS A 40-KNOT\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE STATUS OF MARIA...I PROPOSE NOT TO CHANGE ANY OF THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nEARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN\r\nTHE MORNING WILL HELP US TO DETERMINE IF MARIA IS STILL A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OR NOT.  EVEN IF THE PLANE FINDS AN OPEN TROUGH...THE UPPER\r\nLEVEL ENVIRONMENT FAVORS REGENERATION AND STRENGHTENING.  THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENISTY GUIDANCE. IN FACT...EVEN THE\r\nHWRF HAS BECOME MORE AGRESSIVE MAKING MARIA A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE ECMWF IS NOT VERY\r\nENTHUSIASTIC WITH MARIA.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS THAT MARIA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL IN A DAY...SO A TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS FORECAST. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE\r\nREAL CHALLENGE HERE IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 16.0N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 17.0N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 18.5N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 20.0N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 21.5N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 23.5N  69.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 27.5N  70.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 34.0N  68.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST\r\n12-18 HOURS.  THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH LOCATED NORTH\r\nOF PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND\r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE WEAK CIRCULATION CENTER IS APPROACHING ANTIGUA.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...BUT HAS ENOUGH DEFINITION TO\r\nMAINTAIN ADVISORIES FOR NOW.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS GENEROUSLY\r\nKEPT AT 35 KT...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nARE OCCURRING IN THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  BECAUSE THESE WINDS ARE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER...AND NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE LESSER ANTILLES...ALL\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTHEREFORE CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  IF MARIA SURVIVES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE WHEN IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS\r\nRESTRENGTHENING...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES IN 2-3 DAYS IS FORECAST TO TURN MARIA NORTHWARD...THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING\r\nTHE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 17.3N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 18.4N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 19.9N  64.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 21.4N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 22.7N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 24.9N  70.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 29.0N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 36.0N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY.  THE\r\nCENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS.  THE EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW THROUGH\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FOUND WINDS TO SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY OF\r\n40 KT. GLOBAL MODEL AND SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF MARIA WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD\r\nRESULT IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL DOES NOT WEAKEN THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS MUCH AND KEEPS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS\r\nNO CHANGE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST INDICATES SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT IT REMAINS NEAR\r\nTHE LOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  MARIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS MARIA\r\nIS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE TRACK \r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT THERE ARE SOME SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED ECMWF MOVING A WEAKER MARIA\r\nMORE SLOWLY TO THE NORTH.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 17.9N  62.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 19.0N  63.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 20.6N  65.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 21.9N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 22.9N  68.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 25.5N  70.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 30.0N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 37.5N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOW THAT THE WIND\r\nCIRCULATION OF MARIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWEST SIDE REMAINS WEAK.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 59 KT AND\r\nESTIMATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 1005 MB.  THERE WERE NUMEROUS\r\n40-45 KT WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE SFMR THAT LOOKED RELIABLE...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.  OVERALL...THE SYSTEM NOW\r\nHAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG\r\nCONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  OTHER\r\nTHAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY.  FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n25N64W SHOULD STEER MARIA GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD.  AFTER THAT...A\r\nDEEP-LAYER WESTERLY TROUGH ADVANCING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW MARIA TO RECURVE INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE UKMET\r\nAND ECMWF SHOW A MORE WESTERLY MOTION DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS AND\r\nARE SLOWER TO RECURVE.  THE GFS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND\r\nIS THE FASTEST TO MOVE THE CYCLONE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE 96 AND 120 HOUR POINTS\r\nCOMPROMISE IN SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER\r\nECMWF/UKMET.\r\n \r\nMARIA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON HOW MUCH SHEAR THE STORM\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY BY 72 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF FORECAST A\r\nMORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND A WEAKER MARIA.  THE MAJORITY OF THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE CALLS FOR MARIA TO BE A HURRICANE BY 72\r\nHOURS.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW MARIA WILL INTERACT WITH\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT CALL FOR\r\nMARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE AT THIS TIME.  INSTEAD...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SLOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE 24-96 HOUR PERIOD.  THIS FORECAST IS AT\r\nTHE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 18.5N  62.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 19.6N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 21.0N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 22.3N  66.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 23.3N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 26.0N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 32.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 39.0N  63.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SHEARED...FINALLY MARIA LOOKS LIKE A TROPICAL STORM ON\r\nSATELLITE. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. AN AIR FORCE\r\nPLANE WAS IN MARIA UNTIL AROUND 0600 UTC...AND FOUND THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION WAS BETTER DEFINED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT ONLY...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004\r\nMB. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS\r\nALSO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 50 KNOTS. HAVING SAID THAT...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGES STILL SHOW THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nMARIA PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nWEAKENING THIS TROUGH...BUT THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN RESILIENT AND IT\r\nHAS NOT GONE YET. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS\r\nTHE LGEM MODEL WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST CONSERVATIVE...BUT IN\r\nGENERAL MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE OVER THE\r\nWATERS BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.  \r\n\r\nMARIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE TRAPPED BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH AND A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS THE\r\nSAME STEERING PATTERN THAT IN GENERAL HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON...\r\nAND MOST LIKELY WILL FORCE MARIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWEST AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTHEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST LIES IN MIDDLE OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH IT IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING MARIA\r\nWELL NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN RECURVING IT BETWEEN THE\r\nUNITED STATES EAST COAST AND BERMUDA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 19.0N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 20.0N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 21.5N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 22.5N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 23.5N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 27.0N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 33.5N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 43.0N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MARIA IS RATHER DECEIVING THIS MORNING.\r\nALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE\r\nAIRCRAFT HAS YET TO SAMPLE THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN...BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN AN\r\nAREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE\r\nLONGER TERM MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.  MARIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED. \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 19.0N  64.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 20.1N  65.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 21.1N  66.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 21.9N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 22.9N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 27.5N  69.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 34.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 45.0N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CLOUD\r\nSWIRLS HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE EXPOSED MEAN CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  POSITION ESTIMATES FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE A BIT SCATTERED AS THEY FIXED THE\r\nDIFFERENT SWIRLS DURING THE FLIGHT.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 850\r\nMB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 45-48\r\nKT...WHICH SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWIND PATTERN IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE BY THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD\r\nBECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE IN 2-3 DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.  THIS WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE\r\nSHORT...AS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE BY 96 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...MARIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTROID OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ESTIMATE...WHICH REQUIRED A SLIGHT RELOCATION. \r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH THE FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/9 KT.  MARIA SHOULD MOVE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... THEN\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  MARIA SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A\r\nSECOND TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST UNITED\r\nSTATES DURING THE 3-5 DAY TIME PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME\r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE WITH THE ECMWF SHIFTING\r\nEASTWARD...AND CLOSER TO THE GFS TRACK.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER WATER TO THE NORTH \r\nOF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RAIN BANDS CURRENTLY OVER THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS.  THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD\r\nOVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND MONDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 19.8N  65.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 20.6N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 21.7N  67.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 22.8N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 24.2N  69.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 29.3N  69.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 37.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 49.5N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nWITHOUT RECON DATA OR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE LOCATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF MARIA HAS BEEN A STRUGGLE TO PINPOINT. RADAR DATA\r\nFROM SAN JUAN WERE INCONCLUSIVE...BUT A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES...CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LAST-VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS TO THE\r\nWEST OF A LARGE BLOB OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION. OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM THE NEARBY NOAA BUOY 41043 AND OTHER SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA\r\nSUGGEST AN EAST-WEST ELONGATION TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 AND 3.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB AND...WITH NO APPARENT\r\nCHANGE IN THE STORM STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH UNCERTAIN...RECENT FIXES YIELD A MOTION OF 300/09...MORE OR\r\nLESS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MARIA APPROACHING THE WESTERN EXTENSION\r\nOF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN THAT SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  BETWEEN 36-72 HOURS...A TROUGH IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLIDE EASTWARD...GRADUALLY INDUCING A RECURVING TRACK NEAR 70W.\r\nA LARGER AND MORE POTENT TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSTATES BY 96 HOURS SHOULD ACCELERATE MARIA NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nHIGHER LATITUDES.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND A HAIR TO THE LEFT AFTER\r\nTHAT FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nAS ALWAYS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CHALLENGING.  UW-CIMSS\r\nAND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nPREVAILING OVER MARIA AS A RESULT OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH JUST\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO\r\nDECREASE IN THE SHEAR FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS...WHICH MAKES THE\r\nPROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION SLIM.  BETWEEN\r\n36-72 HOURS...THERE COULD BE A MODEST REDUCTION IN THE SHEAR AS THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEAKENS. HOWEVER...MARIA\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER OR CLOSE TO THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY\r\nKATIA WHICH TRAVERSED THIS REGION LESS THAN A WEEK AGO.  IN SPITE OF\r\nTHE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE REGIONAL HURRICANE\r\nMODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AROUND 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND FOLLOWS THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...A SHARP\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD BRING ANY\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO AN END.  GIVEN THE ENORMOUS VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS BY 96-120 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SEEMS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 20.2N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 21.1N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 22.5N  68.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 23.7N  69.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 25.5N  69.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 31.5N  68.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 40.7N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 50.0N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 12 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE 0000 UTC...SO THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT.  BUOY 41043 LOCATED ABOUT 75\r\nN MI EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS AS\r\nHIGH AS 41 KT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIA IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. USING A\r\nSSMIS PASS AROUND 0000 UTC AND CONTINUITY...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 305/8. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE\r\nSCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION THAT WILL AFFECT THE FUTURE TRACK OF MARIA.\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CAUSE MARIA TO GRADUALLY\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ANOTHER\r\nTROUGH...THIS ONE BEING LARGER AND STRONGER...WILL MOVE OVER\r\nATLANTIC CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES LATE THIS WEEK.\r\nTHIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD THEN TURN MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...IS CURRENTLY\r\nAFFECTING MARIA. THE SHIPS MODEL ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN\r\nTHE SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE IT INCREASES\r\nSHARPLY IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THIS UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH A COLD WATER WAKE LEFT BY HURRICANE\r\nKATIA SHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEAR THE\r\nLGEM. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHEAR...THE INTERACTION WITH A\r\nFRONT...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 20C SHOULD CAUSE\r\nMARIA TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON A 0340 UTC ALTIMETER\r\nPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 20.8N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 21.5N  67.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 22.7N  68.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 24.0N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 26.1N  69.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 32.8N  67.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 41.5N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  17/0600Z 51.0N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL DISPLACED ABOUT A\r\nDEGREE TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THIS LACK OF\r\nORGANIZATION...DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO\r\nDECREASE AND A BLEND OF THESE YIELDS 45 KT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES ABOUT 25 KT OF\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER MARIA...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 25N 65W. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT\r\nWEAKEN THIS LOW UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS...SO LITTLE INTENSIFICATION\r\nSEEMS LIKELY UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME. EVEN AFTER THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nWEAKENS...MARIA WILL STILL ENCOUNTER 15 TO 20 KT OF WESTERLY OR\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THEREFORE THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECASTS ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AT 36 HOURS AND NONE\r\nAFTER THAT TIME. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS AND THE LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING ONLY SLOWLY WESTWARD AT AROUND\r\n2 KT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...SLOWER AND WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD AND SLOWER INITIAL\r\nMOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT A\r\nDEGREE TO THE LEFT OF AND IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS. THROUGH 24 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO LEFT OF\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS TAKE MARIA\r\nIMMEDIATELY NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nLARGELY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ADJUSTED TOWARD THE\r\nNEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST\r\nASSUMES MARIA WILL REMAIN A DEEP CYCLONE AND FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.\r\nIF MARIA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...IT COULD MOVE MORE WESTWARD THAN INDICATED HERE AND\r\nWEAKEN OR PERHAPS EVEN DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 20.7N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 21.1N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 22.6N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 24.5N  69.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 26.5N  69.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 34.0N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 43.5N  57.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  17/1200Z 54.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HOWEVER A\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION HAS BEEN APPARENT VERY\r\nRECENTLY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nA BURST OF NEW CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON.  NOAA\r\nBUOY 41043...LOCATED ABOUT 125 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 39 KT WITH A GUST TO 45 KT.\r\nTHIS OBSERVATION ALONG WITH THE 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. STRONG SHEAR FROM AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF MARIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH MARIA HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE TODAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINSISTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  MARIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAS IT RECURVES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND FRONT MOVING OFF\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT SHOWS A SLOWER\r\nMOTION THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOT AS FAST.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADIUS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\nHAS BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON 1324 UTC ASCAT DATA THAT SHOWED A SMALL\r\nAREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IT IS\r\nWORTH REMEMBERING THAT NHC RADII ESTIMATES REPRESENT THE MAXIMUM\r\nEXTENT OF A PARTICULAR WIND THRESHOLD ANYWHERE WITHIN A QUADRANT.\r\nIN THIS CASE...THE INITIAL WIND FIELD GRAPHIC IS LIKELY TO DEPICT\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN\r\nISLANDS WHEN IT REALITY THEY ARE OCCURRING ONLY OVER WATER IN A\r\nSMALL AREA WELL TO EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 21.0N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 21.6N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 22.8N  68.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 24.8N  69.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 27.5N  69.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 34.5N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 45.0N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...MARIA\r\nCONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RECENTLY\r\nDEVELOPED A BIT CLOSER TO THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LESS DEFINED AND\r\nTHE COVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS 24 HOURS\r\nAGO. WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB UNCHANGED AND THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION GENERALLY NO DIFFERENT THAN EARLIER...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.  THE PREVAILING WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER MARIA IS NOT LIKELY TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION WILL BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER AFTER\r\nABOUT 60 HOURS...MAKING THE SURVIVAL OF MARIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME QUESTIONABLE.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A 96-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS\r\nINDICATED...THOUGH THE GUIDANCE IS AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE A VIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME. AN\r\nALTERNATIVE AND EQUALLY PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR MARIA TO\r\nSUCCUMB TO THE HIGH SHEAR...BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE..AND\r\nDISSIPATE.\r\n \r\nTHE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER AND NO RECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS\r\nMADE IT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT IT APPEARS AS\r\nIF MARIA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nSTORM HAS TEMPORARILY BEEN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST.  WITHIN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE CAUGHT UP IN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.  AN\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR\r\nIN 48-72 HOURS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SWINGING\r\nTHROUGH NEW ENGLAND.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND\r\nTHE SPREAD IS REASONABLY SMALL...MAKING ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES\r\nNECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA CREDIBLE 40-KT SHIP REPORT ABOUT 175 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF MARIA WAS USED TO EXPAND THE WIND RADIUS IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 21.3N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 22.3N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 24.0N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 26.3N  69.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 29.3N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 37.5N  64.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 48.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2011\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF MARIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nOVERNIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSIONS\r\nINTO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT PROCESS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST...ALBEIT\r\nHAVING IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nOF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nNIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY PLUS A 0520Z TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS\r\nINDICATE MULTIPLE SMALL CIRCULATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE CENTER OF\r\nA LARGER LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...WHICH\r\nMAKES THE INITIAL MOTION OF 330/04 KT SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION OF MARIA DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF MOST\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. BY 36 HOURS...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO GET\r\nCAUGHT UP IN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA AS\r\nNOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND BY 96 HOURS BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES ALONG THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER UNFAVORABLE WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. HOWEVER...BY 36 HOURS...\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE MARIA...THAT HAS BEEN\r\nCREATING CONDITIONS QUITE HOSTILE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. THE RESULT IS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE BELOW 10 KT AND FOR THE SHEAR DIRECTION TO\r\nBACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST\r\nSOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY AROUND 48 HOURS. AT 72 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND...MARIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 20C...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...AND REMAINS WELL BELOW THE INTENSITY FORECASTS OF THE\r\nGLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH ARE ALL FORECASTING MARIA TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 21.6N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 22.8N  68.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 24.8N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 27.5N  68.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 31.2N  67.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 39.8N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 51.0N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2011\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF MARIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS MORNING. THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SHEAR AS SHOWN IN THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH OF MARIA CAUSING THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WINDS NEVER BECOME IDEAL FOR INTENSIFICATION ACCORDING TO THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER\r\nMARIA AHEAD OF THE LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM\r\nMODELS. MARIA SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS...AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/05. MARIA WILL ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD TURN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH\r\nBY 48 HOURS. A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS\r\nAS MARIA IS ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...LYING TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BETWEEN THE RELIABLE ECMWF\r\nAND GFS MODELS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 22.1N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 23.6N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 26.1N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 29.2N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 33.2N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 43.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO RELAX A LITTLE OVER\r\nMARIA...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN SHEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE A\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR MARIA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD\r\nOF THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nPEAKING AT 55 KT IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nBELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND HWRF\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THAT MARIA WILL BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 3 AND BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW BY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nAFTER STALLING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF MARIA\r\nHAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DUE TO THE\r\nRECENT JUMPY MOTION...A LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n355/07 IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. MARIA SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BETWEEN THE BROAD TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY 48\r\nHOURS...MARIA WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND ONLY\r\nCOSMETIC CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS. THROUGH THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE\r\nEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR\r\nTHAT ISLAND AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 22.8N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 24.1N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 27.1N  68.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 30.6N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 35.0N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 48.5N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":30,"Date":"2011-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE SHEAR OVER MARIA HAS AT LEAST\r\nTEMPORARILY ABATED...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS NOT IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BELIEVED\r\nTO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 55 KT AND 35 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION...THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME\r\nPROHIBITIVELY STRONG UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...SO SOME STRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR PRIOR TO THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DEPICT MARIA BEGINNING TO LOSE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSTRUCTURE SOON AFTER 48 HOURS AS IT MERGES WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nBAROCLINIC ZONE.  WITHIN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER\r\nEASTERN CANADA.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 350/8. \r\nTHERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN. \r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...MARIA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AT\r\nAN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH PRESSURE AREA.  BY 48 HOURS...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE STORM TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION.  THE\r\nTRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST ON THIS\r\nCYCLE...BUT VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK IS\r\nFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS FAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 23.5N  68.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 25.5N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 28.8N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 32.8N  67.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 38.0N  64.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 52.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":31,"Date":"2011-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011\r\n \r\nSEVERAL FORTUITOUS OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41046 WERE USED TO\r\nPLACE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MARIA JUST WEST OF THE BUOY...AND\r\nJUST INSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nMASS. BUOY 41046 HAS BEEN REPORTING NEAR STEADY 35-KT WINDS THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH A PRESSURE OF 1004.5 MB AT 06Z. BASED ON\r\nTHIS INFORMATION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE BUOY LIES INSIDE THE\r\nRADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND THAT THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\nMARIA IS NEAR 1001 MB. GIVEN THAT SEVERAL SHIPS AND BUOYS HAVE\r\nREPORTED PRESSURES ABOVE 1015 MB ABOUT 200 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...I FEEL THAT MAXIMUM WINDS OF 50 KT LIE JUST NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE BUOY IN A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THAT QUADRANT. THIS\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH A TAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT3.5/55 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN...AND ALSO CORRESPONDS TO THE\r\nHIGHER-THAN-STANDARD PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP NOTED IN AIRCRAFT\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA THREE DAYS AGO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/09 KT. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MARIA TURNING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY 24-30 HOURS AS MARIA PASSES WEST OF\r\nBERMUDA...THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY ACCELERATE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nPUSHING EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MARIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IN 60-72 HOURS...AND\r\nBE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES REGION BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS ALONG\r\nTHE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR IS WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE THE\r\nLOWEST...AND SSTS AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE THE HIGHEST. BY 48\r\nHOURS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 40 KT...WHICH WILL BE\r\nCOINCIDENT WITH MARIA MOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nHALT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AND INDUCE A QUICK TRANSITION TO\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nOCCURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...\r\nESPECIALLY AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 24.2N  68.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 26.7N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 30.4N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 35.3N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 41.1N  60.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 55.8N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":32,"Date":"2011-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF MARIA REMAINS\r\nON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...A BIT WEST OF\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES.  WHILE MARIA IS MORE ORGANIZED THAN YESTERDAY...\r\nWIND SHEAR HAS CLEARLY BEEN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT RETAINING AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  MARIA HAS SOME CHANCE TO INTENSIFY FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A RATHER HIGH SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.  ABOUT\r\nHALF OF THE MODELS...IN FACT...MAKE MARIA A HURRICANE.  GIVEN THAT\r\nTHIS STORM HAS BEEN AN UNDERPERFORMER...AND STILL HAS TO MOVE\r\nTHROUGH THE SST WAKE OF KATIA...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE\r\nLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/12 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nLONG-AWAITED TURN TO THE NORTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE STORM HAS\r\nBEGUN DUE TO A TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST. \r\nTHIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY\r\nTOMORROW AND CAUSE A LARGE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS MARIA GETS\r\nCAUGHT IN RATHER FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN THE FIRST 24 HR...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE REPOSITIONING...BUT IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAFTER THAT TIME.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...MARIA SHOULD BE LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD\r\nWATERS.  ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE HAVE THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED\r\nINTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 3 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nAGREES WITH THAT SCENARIO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 25.2N  69.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 27.6N  69.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 31.6N  68.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 36.5N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 42.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":33,"Date":"2011-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nTHERE ARE EVEN SOME HINTS FROM THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE\r\nCENTER MAY BE TRYING TO REFORM A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF ABOUT 50 KT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nWILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE.  WITH\r\nTHE STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENTS...SOME INTENSIFICATION SEEMS POSSIBLE\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MARIA HAS MODERATE SHEAR AND WARM\r\nWATER.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS FOR THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...SHOWING A PEAK NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  MARIA SHOULD\r\nBE TRANSITIONING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO\r\nVERY HIGH SHEAR AND COLD WATER...AND BE ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM BY DAY 3.\r\n \r\nMARIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 13 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nBY TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM SPEEDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH DIVING\r\nINTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THE TROUGH...AND LIE TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE REST OF THE MODELS.  THE NHC FORECAST LEANS ON\r\nTHOSE TOP-PERFORMING MODELS...AND ENDS UP A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 26.3N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 29.2N  68.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 33.8N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 39.0N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 45.0N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":34,"Date":"2011-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2011\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nMARIA A FEW HOURS AGO FOUND PEAK SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 56\r\nKT AND PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT.  LEANING A LITTLE\r\nMORE TOWARD THE SFMR DATA...THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT. \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PREDICTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG...AND THE SEA\r\nSURFACE DOES NOT COOL SIGNIFICANTLY...UNTIL ABOUT 36 HOURS.  MARIA\r\nHAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON THURSDAY AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS FAIRLY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS LIKELY TO INCREASE TO NEAR 50 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nDECREASE CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  MARIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS AS GLOBAL\r\nMODEL OUTPUT DEPICTS THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE A MOTION SLIGHTLY EAST OF\r\nNORTH AT AROUND 16 KT.  MARIA IS MOVING IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nSUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND A STRONG TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH CONTINUED\r\nACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE RELIABLE GFS MODEL\r\nTRACK.  THIS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 28.0N  68.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 31.3N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 36.2N  64.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 41.8N  57.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 48.0N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":35,"Date":"2011-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL DIFFICULT TO LOCATE\r\nON IR IMAGES...BUT A 0506 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER WAS\r\nLOCATED WEST OF THE CONVECTION. IT MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL\r\nSHEARED. LATEST T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB WERE 3.5 ON THE\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY IS OF 55 KNOTS.\r\nTHERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR MARIA TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY\r\nBEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER AND THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS. THEREAFTER...MARIA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nDISSIPATE AS IT BECOMES ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nMARIA IS ACCELERATING AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. MARIA IS\r\nRAPIDLY BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nBETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A STRONG MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THIS PATTERN\r\nFAVORS A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD BE MINDFUL THAT STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER LOCATION.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 30.2N  68.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 33.7N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 39.0N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 45.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 51.0N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Maria","Adv":36,"Date":"2011-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2011\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT MARIA\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  AN EYE...OPEN TO THE SOUTH...IS\r\nAPPARENT IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL\r\nSOME TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT...WITH CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATES OF 63 KT AND ADT\r\nVALUES OF 57 KT.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND\r\nMIGHT BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE BETTER DEFINED CORE\r\nFEATURES AND THE FAST FORWARD SPEED.  MARIA HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OF\r\nWARM WATER AND MODERATE SHEAR BEFORE IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL OF\r\nTHE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS A MUCH HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ALL\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE MAKES MARIA A HURRICANE LATER TODAY BEFORE\r\nWEAKENING ON FRIDAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGREES WITH THAT\r\nSCENARIO.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST STARTING BY TONIGHT AT A RATE OF ABOUT 40 KT AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN FAST MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nA SUBTLE NORTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH A FAIR NUMBER\r\nOF THE MODELS BRINGING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE CLOSE TO THE\r\nAVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE LATEST FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE LEFT...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 32.4N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 36.7N  64.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 42.8N  57.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 49.5N  49.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":37,"Date":"2011-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT MARIA HAS BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED.  AN EYE HAS BEEN EVIDENT ON\r\nBERMUDA RADAR FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IT HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN\r\nSEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nMARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING\r\nABOUT 31 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND MOVE 45 KT OR FASTER ON FRIDAY AS IT GET CAUGHT IN VERY STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST CLOSE TO NEWFOUNDLAND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE\r\nMOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...THOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS\r\nMODERATE AND THE WATER IS WARM.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW\r\nDUE TO RAPIDLY INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER\r\nWATERS.   HOWEVER...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nAS IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW...DUE IN PART TO THE EXPECTED VERY\r\nFAST FORWARD MOTION.  THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY\r\nNECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.  IF THERE IS A FURTHER\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE OR MARIA BECOMES STRONGER...A\r\nHURRICANE WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 35.2N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 39.6N  61.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 46.7N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 54.5N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":38,"Date":"2011-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE\r\nCONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF MARIA...ALTHOUGH TOPS HAVE WARMED A\r\nLITTLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ALSO...A 30 NMI DIAMETER\r\nEYE HAS BEEN APPARENT IN EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...THE EYE FEATURE NOTED\r\nIN MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THE FASTER FORWARD SPEED OF MARIA.\r\n \r\nMARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 035/37\r\nKT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nCONTINUE TO ACCELERATE AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM NOVA SCOTIA\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TO THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MARIA PASSING OVER OR\r\nNEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 18\r\nHOURS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONLY BEEN NUDGED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS NOW IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS SPEED OF\r\nTHE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nSINCE MARIA IS NOW RAPIDLY APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT THAT\r\nLIES ALONG 40N LATITUDE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES THE AVALON PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION\r\nMAY WANE AFTER MARIA MOVES OVER COLDER WATER NORTH OF 40N...THE\r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED OF 45-50 KT SHOULD HELP TO OFFSET ANY LOSS OF\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND FORECAST POINTS WERE COORDINATED WITH\r\nTHE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER AND THE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTRE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 38.5N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 43.3N  58.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 50.7N  50.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 58.0N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":39,"Date":"2011-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011\r\n \r\nAN 0540 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL OF MARIA IS\r\nOPEN IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nIS THINNING.  HOWEVER...THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS 72 KT...AND A\r\nBLEND OF FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN\r\nINTENSITY BETWEEN 65 AND 72 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE\r\nMAINTAINED AT 70 KT.\r\n\r\nMARIA CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n035/39 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nTHAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO OCCUR IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND ONLY DEVIATES SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST THEREAFTER.  THIS SOLUTION IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nMARIA IS CROSSING THE STRONG SST GRADIENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM AND IS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 22-23 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THE\r\nCOLDER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING...BUT SINCE THE HURRICANE IS\r\nMOVING SO FAST...IT PROBABLY WILL NOT WEAKEN MUCH BEFORE REACHING\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  A COLD FRONT IS FAST-APPROACHING MARIA FROM THE\r\nWEST...AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nALMOST FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER 18\r\nUTC TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST STILL SHOWS MARIA AS A\r\n65-KT HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES NEWFOUNDLAND...BUT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE NEARING COMPLETION AT THAT TIME. \r\nAS SHOWN BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AFTER PASSING NEWFOUNDLAND AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME ABSORBED WITHIN AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE BY 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII DURING THE POST-TROPICAL STAGE WERE\r\nCOORDINATED WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  THE 12-FT SEAS\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE SINCE MARIA IS\r\nOUTRUNNING THE HIGHEST WAVES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 41.7N  60.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 46.8N  54.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 55.0N  48.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Maria","Adv":40,"Date":"2011-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2011\r\n \r\nMARIA IS BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS ROTATED NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH THE CLOUD\r\nTOPS WARMING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...\r\nSO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 65 KT.  CANADIAN BUOY REPORTED\r\n985.4 MB AT 12Z WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WIND...WHICH IS THE SOURCE OF\r\nTHE 983 MB INITIAL PRESSURE.  MARIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT PASSES NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY...AND\r\nWEAKEN THEREAFTER DUE TO COLD WATER. THIS WEAKENING WILL BE SLOWER\r\nTHAN USUAL DUE TO THE EXTREME FORWARD MOTION...WHICH IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nMARIA IS MOVING RATHER RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 45 KT. \r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN EVEN FASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND 50\r\nKT ACROSS THE AVALON PENINSULA TODAY...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING\r\nABSORBED BY 24 HOURS WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  \r\n\r\nIT IS WORTH NOTING THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY ONLY\r\nOCCURRING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND COULD REMAIN\r\nOFFSHORE IF THE CENTER MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK.  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 44.6N  56.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 50.5N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Maria","Adv":41,"Date":"2011-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL142011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF MARIA MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTHWEST OF CAPE PINE ON THE\r\nAVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ABOUT 1830Z THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS\r\nRACED ACROSS THE PENINSULA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.  MARIA HAS LOST\r\nENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED POST-TROPICAL...AND\r\nIN ADDITION IT APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION. AS A\r\nRESULT...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME\r\nABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 12 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nWINDS. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 48.5N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING\r\nFEATURES NOTED.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL\r\nRIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH\r\nLITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED.  THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED\r\nON THIS SYSTEM.  SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED\r\nNATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.\r\n\r\nNATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME\r\nTIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF\r\nTHE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.     \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING DURING THE DAY...WITH A LONG-TERM\r\nMOTION OF ABOUT 110/2.  NATE IS IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nA RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS PATTERN.  AFTER THAT TIME...A RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY BENDING TO\r\nTHE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN\r\nRIDGE.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE RIDGES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO\r\nTHE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECMWF MODEL.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 20.2N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 20.0N  92.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 20.1N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 20.4N  92.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 21.0N  92.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 22.5N  93.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 23.0N  95.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 23.0N  96.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE...SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN EITHER THE POSITION OR THE ORGANIZATION OF NATE DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA...AND OVERALL THE SYSTEM\r\nRETAINS A SOMEWHAT BAROCLINIC APPEARANCE DUE TO ITS POSITION NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A FRONTAL ZONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. \r\nHOWEVER...A SHIP REPORTED 40 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT\r\n0000 UTC....AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 090/2...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO REFORMATIONS OF THE CENTER WILL CAUSE LARGER\r\nCHANGES IN POSITION THAN THE ACTUAL MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...RISING PRESSURES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD\r\nCAUSE NATE TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS NATE TURNING WESTWARD BY 120 HOURS. THERE REMAINS A\r\nLOT OF NORTH-TO-SOUTH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE\r\nCANADIAN MODEL IS A MAJOR OUTLIER IN SHOWING A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST. THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS THE\r\nCENTER OF NATE REMAINING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT FIVE\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nNATE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN AREA OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO\r\nTHIS LOW SHEAR AND THE WARM UNDERLYING WATERS BY FORECASTING\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ABUNDANT DRY AIR TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF NATE WHICH COULD SLOW THE RATE OF STRENGTHENING IF THE\r\nSTORM INGESTS IT...AND THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE IS NOT FAVORABLE\r\nFOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME. \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON HOW MUCH WIND\r\nSHEAR NATE MIGHT ENCOUNTER...WITH THE ECMWF FORECASTING A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 20.4N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 20.3N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 20.5N  92.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 21.1N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 21.7N  92.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 23.0N  94.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 23.5N  95.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 23.5N  97.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\nNATE APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A CURVED BAND \r\nNOW WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHWEST SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...CONVENTIONAL\r\nAND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS IS\r\nCONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nSTILL DISPLACED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF IT. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED SOME SINCE\r\n0000 UTC BUT REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. A SHIP LOCATED\r\nABOUT 50 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 45 KT WIND AT 0300\r\nUTC...BUT THIS OBSERVATION WAS JUDGED TO BE A BIT HIGH. BASED UPON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF NATE APPEARS TO HAVE NOT MOVED MUCH RECENTLY.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER REMAINS HARD TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 090/02 REMAINS AS UNCERTAIN AS IT WAS EARLIER.\r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW IN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGES OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND MEXICO...WITH SHOULD ONLY\r\nALLOW A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE\r\nUNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF NATE\r\nLIFTS NORTHWARD.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE MEXICAN RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD AND INDUCING A GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF\r\nNORTH-TO-SOUTH SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE....THE MORE\r\nRELIABLE GFS/ECWMF REMAIN THE MOST CONSISTENT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES\r\nWERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST...WITH THE NEW TRACK IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR NATE IS CHALLENGING.  WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nIS LOCATED IN A DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR NEAR AND NORTH OF\r\nNATE. THIS...AND THE RELATIVE LACK OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...\r\nWOULD ARGUE AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHIPS GUIDANCE STILL\r\nINDICATES THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR\r\nMASS AND A SUDDEN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nSTRONGER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...E.G. HWRF...MAY BE IN DOUBT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC OFFICIAL IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND PUTS MORE\r\nWEIGHT ON THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODEL OUTPUT. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 20.4N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 20.4N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 20.6N  92.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 21.2N  92.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 21.8N  93.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 22.7N  94.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 23.0N  95.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 23.0N  97.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 AM CDT THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MORE ORGANIZED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON.  NATE HAS\r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 45 KT...BASED ON A SHIP OBSERVATION\r\nOF 40 KT TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND RECENT STRONGER WIND\r\nREPORTS FROM ELEVATED PEMEX OIL RIGS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE NATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nNATE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVERNIGHT OR THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN IN A WEAK STEERING PATTERN BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES OVER\r\nMEXICO AND THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. IN A\r\nDAY OR SO...NATE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. AFTER 36-48 HOURS...THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD BECOMES INCREASINGLY LARGE...AS SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN\r\nTHE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD HAVE SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPLICATIONS ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE LATEST GFS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH...MOVE NATE\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS DEPICT A WEAKER TROUGH THAT DOES NOT CAPTURE NATE AND ALLOWS\r\nIT TURN TURN WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING\r\nRIDGE...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nSPREAD AMONG THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AND LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO VIABLE\r\nSCENARIOS BUT HAS NOT BEEN SHIFTED AS FAR AS THE TVCA CONSENSUS.\r\nTHE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO PERFORM A SYNOPTIC\r\nSURVEILLANCE MISSION LATER TODAY...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY HELP REDUCE\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nNATE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE AND ALONG WITH DRIER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR...IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOW THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 20.0N  92.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 20.4N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 21.0N  92.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 21.8N  92.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 22.5N  93.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 23.1N  93.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 23.6N  94.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 24.0N  95.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NATE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nHAS REPORTED PEAK 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 KT AND BELIEVABLE\r\nSFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 60 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT.  THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT TO\r\nMODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PLACE NATE IN A \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nTHE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nA BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT NATE HAS MOVED SLOWLY\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 160/2 KT.  THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING.  NATE WILL REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THEN IT SHOULD BEGIN MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE.  AFTER\r\n36-48 HOURS...THERE REMAINS A VERY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...\r\nHOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD.  THE GFS IS\r\nALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODELS MOVE NATE MORE WESTWARD TOWARD\r\nMEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT\r\nNOT NEARLY AS FAR WEST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...OUT OF RESPECT\r\nFOR THE GFS AND THE EARLIER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 19.7N  92.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 19.7N  92.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 20.2N  92.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 20.9N  92.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 21.6N  93.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 22.5N  94.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 23.0N  94.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 23.5N  95.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 PM CDT THU SEP 08 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR STATION AT SABANCUY INDICATE THAT NATE\r\nHAS WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS AND OCCASIONALLY IS TRYING TO WRAP UP\r\nAN EYE FEATURE.  THIS SIGNATURE IS NOT APPARENT ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...WITH THE CONVENTIONAL INFRARED SUGGESTING A WEAKER\r\nSYSTEM.  THERE IS NOT MUCH EVIDENCE THAT NATE HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nSINCE THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE LEFT THIS\r\nEVENING...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 60 KT.\r\n \r\nMEXICAN RADAR DATA SHOW THAT NATE REMAINS STATIONARY...AND IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO MOVE LITTLE TONIGHT WHILE IT IS CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF VERY\r\nLIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST. THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE MODEL\r\nCHANGE FROM SIX HOURS AGO...WITH THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF MODELS NOW\r\nHAVING A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO THE\r\nCYCLONE BEING TRAPPED BENEATH A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO. NATE IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED YESTERDAY...SO THE\r\nLIKELIHOOD OF A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES HAS DIMINISHED. THUS THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED WELL TO THE LEFT AT THIS TIME...BUT BASICALLY ALL RELIABLE\r\nMODELS ARE STILL FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF CURRENT TRENDS\r\nCONTINUE...THE FORECAST WOULD HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOUTHWESTWARD AT A\r\nLATER TIME.\r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR SOME DRY AIR NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nAND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE BUILDING AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER NATE... WHICH IS\r\nUSUALLY QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. IT IS A LITTLE\r\nSURPRISING THAT NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW NATE BECOMING A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE WITH THIS TYPE OF UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT. GIVEN THE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE DRY AIR LURKING NEARBY...IT IS PROBABLY\r\nBEST NOT TO MAKE TOO LARGE OF A CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THEREFORE...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND NEAREST THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 19.7N  92.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 20.0N  92.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 20.5N  92.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 21.2N  93.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 21.7N  94.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 22.0N  96.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 21.5N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nNATE HAS SEEMINGLY WEAKENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nHAS BEEN A MODEST COMEBACK OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. THE HIGHEST\r\nSFMR WINDS REPORTED FROM THE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE AROUND 06Z\r\nWERE 47 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AN AREA WHERE 60 KT SFMR\r\nWINDS WERE FOUND YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS ALSO\r\nUP...TO 998 MB. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 55 KT. AN ASCAT PASS ALSO SUGGESTS THE WIND RADII HAVE\r\nCONTRACTED.\r\n \r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT NATE IS STILL\r\nESSENTIALLY STATIONARY...AND THE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO STRONGER\r\nAGREEMENT THAT NATE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD\r\nPROGRESS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A NARROW RIDGE DEVELOPING TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NATE WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  IN FACT...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT\r\nOF GUIDANCE NOW THAT TAKES NATE WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  THE SOUTHERNMOST MODEL IS THE HFIP\r\nCOAMPS-TC...WHILE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS\r\nDEFINED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.  THE PRESENT MODEL SUITE REQUIRES A\r\nSOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF BUT STILL NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NATE HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE...THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT\r\nTWO TO THREE DAYS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DIFLUENT AND\r\nANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND ONCE NATE BEGINS TO MOVE IT WILL HAVE\r\nA DEEPER RESERVOIR OF VERY WARM WATER UNDERNEATH. THE DRY AIR IN\r\nTHE WESTERN GULF APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END OF THE TRADITIONAL\r\nGUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL...THE HWRF...AND\r\nGFDL. AMONG THE HFIP MODELS...WHICH AS A GROUP PERFORMED VERY WELL\r\nDURING IRENE...THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN UWN8 IS MOST\r\nAGRESSIVE...BRINGING NATE TO ABOUT 90 KT...WHILE THE COAMPS-TC AND\r\nAHW ARE 15-25 KT LOWER.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nWESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 19.9N  92.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 20.3N  92.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 20.7N  93.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 20.8N  94.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 20.9N  95.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 20.5N  97.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 20.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n\r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS A WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...HOWEVER DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nCONTINUES TO SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION IN THAT PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND THE INFRARED PRESENTATION REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A DVORAK CI-NUMBER OF\r\n3.5 FROM TAFB AT 12Z. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING NATE LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE\r\nINFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IN TERMS OF SSTS AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEARS\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...ACCORDING THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nOUTPUT...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR. OVERALL\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE LOWER THIS CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD A BIT...BUT STILL\r\nSHOWS NATE REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS. NOTE THAT SOME \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE 48-HOUR FORECAST\r\nPOINT AND LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A BIT ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD. \r\n\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...NATE FINALLY APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWEST AT AROUND 3 KT AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS\r\nWEAKENED A LITTLE BIT. HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENING NORTH OF NATE IN THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO. BY 36 HOURS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED...WITH A\r\nMOTION SOUTH OF DUE WEST POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE\r\n96 HOURS. HOWEVER A 96-HOUR POINT WAS INCLUDED TO SHOW THE SYSTEM\r\nWEAKENING BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES\r\nROUGHLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN TERMS OF HEADING AND FORWARD\r\nSPEED. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS TO THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH IS REQUIRED FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 20.3N  92.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 20.6N  93.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 20.8N  93.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 20.9N  94.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 20.8N  95.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 20.5N  98.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 20.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE THIS AFTERNOON\r\nFOUND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT AND PEAK SFMR VALUES\r\nOF 40-45 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. WHILE NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nBANDED STRUCTURE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLACKING...BUT HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO\r\nIN RAINBANDS WELL EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS AND\r\nAND A LACK OF INSTABILITY IN THE PROFILE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY\r\nWARM SSTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...NATE SHOULD BE\r\nABLE TO INTENSIFY SOME IF CAN RE-ESTABLISH CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. GIVEN THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND THE STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL WHILE THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE...BUT STILL LOWER THAN THE LAST\r\nCYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BY ABOUT 10\r\nKT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT IS ABOVE MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE. AFTER LANDFALL NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAFTER APPEARING TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EARLIER TODAY...THE\r\nLATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST NATE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL\r\nREBUILD TO THE NORTH OF NATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH\r\nSHOULD GET NATE MOVING AGAIN. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS NOW\r\nSHOW MORE OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS NATE APPROACHES\r\nTHE COAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE BUT\r\nSTILL LIES NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...SHOWING A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FOR 12 TO 24 HOURS AND A TURN SOUTH OF DUE WEST\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 20.0N  92.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 20.2N  93.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 20.2N  94.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 20.1N  95.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 20.0N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 19.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF NATE DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE\r\nCURVED BANDING FEATURES ON THE SABANCUY RADAR...THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE CENTER HAS A HOLLOW APPEARANCE\r\nON INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 45\r\nKT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 0600\r\nUTC TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NATE HAS MOVED A LITTLE BIT TONIGHT...\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/2.  A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBUILD TO THE NORTH OF NATE...CAUSING THE STORM TO ACCELERATE TO THE\r\nWEST TOMORROW.  A FAIR NUMBER OF THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A\r\nSOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION COULD OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES\r\nLAND...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON IN THAT PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED A SMIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH IT REMAINS\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNATE IS YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTING.  DESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ALL\r\nMODELS SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING...THE STORM HAS LOST ORGANIZATION\r\nSINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  ONE REASON COULD BE THAT THE STATIONARY\r\nSYSTEM HAS UPWELLED COOLER WATERS...CAUSING A LACK OF INSTABILITY\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE\r\nDEARTH OF CENTRAL CONVECTION.   DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO MAY HAVE PLAYED\r\nA ROLE...THOUGH LITTLE EVIDENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SSM/IS VAPOR IMAGES. \r\nIN ANY CASE...NATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER OVERNIGHT...\r\nWHICH SHOULD BRING THE STORM OVER WARMER WATERS.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS LIKELY...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS THE BEST BET.  THE\r\nMODELS DO SHOW STRENGTHENING...THOUGH THEY HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE\r\nPEAK INTENSITY AND ALMOST ALL OF THEM KEEP NATE BELOW HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS REDUCTION SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN\r\nTHAT NATE IS FORECAST TO SPEND LESS TIME OVER WATER.  THUS THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH\r\nIT REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 20.1N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 20.2N  93.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 20.1N  94.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 20.0N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 19.8N  96.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 19.5N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INVESTIGATING NATE THIS MORNING\r\nFOUND A MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 49 KT AND SURFACE WINDS NEAR\r\n40 KT. DROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS UP\r\nA LITTLE TO 1000 MB. THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT NATE MAY HAVE WEAKENED\r\nSLIGHTLY...BUT SINCE THE PLANE WAS UNABLE TO SAMPLE THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROPICAL STORM...I PREFER TO HOLD THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED AT 45 KT.   \r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT NATE IS NOW ON A MORE\r\nSTEADY WESTWARD PATH...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n270/4.  A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM\r\nSHOULD STEER NATE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO...WHICH IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE WEAKENING OR LACK OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF NATE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...DESPITE A VERY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE NHC OR THE\r\nMODELS.  THIS COULD BE THE RESULT OF COOL WATER UPWELLING DUE TO\r\nTHE VERY SLOW MOTION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.  NOW THAT NATE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING AND REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...SOME INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS STEADY STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL.  NATE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRA\r\nMADRE MOUNTAINS BY 72 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 20.0N  93.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 20.0N  94.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 19.9N  95.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 19.8N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 19.7N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nNATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT ATYPICAL APPEARANCE...WITH A LARGE\r\nCENTER FILLED WITH LOW CLOUDS SURROUNDED BY SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. ANOTHER AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE NATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON. GIVEN THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE...IT APPEARS THAT ONLY\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NATE COULD STILL APPROACH\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BETWEEN THE 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND\r\nLANDFALL...SO THE HURRICANE WATCH IS MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. NATE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/05...AS NATE IS NOW BEING STEERED\r\nBY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AS A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nSTRENGTHENS OVER MEXICO...A MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS\r\nSHOWN BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE BY 12 HOURS...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 20.0N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 19.9N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 19.8N  96.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 19.7N  97.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 19.6N  98.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF NATE HAS IMPROVED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE\r\nIN DEEP CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MEASURED A PEAK\r\n850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 68 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND AN\r\nSFMR WIND OF 52 KT AS THE PLANE EXITED THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY THROUGH LANDFALL AS NATE MOVES\r\nOVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS THINKING AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM REACHING\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nAFTER PAUSING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...NATE AGAIN APPEARS TO BE\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OR JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST THROUGH LANDFALL\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST WAS\r\nADJUSTED NORTHWARD A LITTLE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION BEING A BIT\r\nNORTH OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...BUT WAS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO FROM TUXPAN TO VERACRUZ.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 20.1N  94.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 20.0N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 19.9N  96.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 19.8N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 19.7N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2011\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OVERALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT THIS\r\nEVENING...THERE APPEARS TO BE MORE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE CENTER. \r\nTHIS IS ALSO EVIDENT IN A 2349Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS WITH GOOD\r\nLOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE IN THE CORE REGION.  THE INITIAL WINDS WILL\r\nSTAY 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOULD BE IN THE AREA AROUND 0600 UTC.  GIVEN\r\nTHE DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT...LIGHT SHEAR...AND THE IMPROVED\r\nCENTRAL FEATURES...SOME STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  ALL OF THE\r\nRELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAVE NATE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT\r\nMAKES LANDFALL.  ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED TIME INTERVALS...NATE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF MOTION IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...265/5.\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE THAT MOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN A\r\nLITTLE LESS THAN A DAY.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO NOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.   THE SYSTEM SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY\r\nBETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 20.0N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 19.8N  95.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 19.7N  97.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 19.7N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NATE HAS DEGRADED DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHRINKING\r\nAND IS NOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE MAXIMUM\r\nFLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS\r\n60 KT. IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE IS NOW UP TO 1003 MB. BASED ON THE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50\r\nKT. NATE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN AND IT APPEARS HIGHLY\r\nUNLIKELY THAT IT WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH AND\r\nRUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nSHOW NATE DISSIPATING BY 36 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nNATE IS MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 19.9N  95.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 19.8N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 19.7N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nate","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF NATE HAS ACTUALLY\r\nMOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...KEEPING\r\nTHE CENTER OFFSHORE UP TO THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH\r\nLITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ANYWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION. BASED\r\nON A BLEND OF DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT 40-KT\r\nSHIP OBSERVATION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 40 KT. NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nAFTER IT MOVES INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA MADRE\r\nMOUNTAIN CHAIN.\r\n \r\nAFTER SOME JUMPING AROUND BETWEEN THE FINAL AIRCRAFT FIX OVERNIGHT\r\nAND THE SATELLITE FIXES THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS\r\nTO BE AROUND 275/8. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 20.4N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 20.5N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nate","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n400 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NATE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1600 UTC\r\nJUST NORTH OF BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO AS A 40-KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\nSINCE LANDFALL...THE WINDS OVER LAND NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN 25\r\nKT OR LESS...SO NATE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING OVER\r\nWATER WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE IS LITTLE ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NATE...AND IF THAT TREND CONTINUES THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TOMORROW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE\r\nSIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285 DEGREES...AT 7 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 20.6N  97.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 20.8N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Nate","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL152011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT NATE HAS\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF NO MORE THAN 25 KT.  THIS\r\nSYSTEM IS LIKELY TO COMPLETELY LOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT CONTINUES TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD OVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO MONDAY\r\nMORNING.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NATE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 20.5N  98.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 20.5N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATED\r\n 24H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LOW OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY COALESCED ABOUT A\r\nSINGLE CIRCULATION CENTER AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AN ASCAT PASS JUST BEFORE 00Z\r\nSHOWED AN AREA OF 35 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF\r\nOPHELIA IS STILL A LITTLE RAGGED...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS LOCATED\r\nWELL NORTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STILL CONSOLIDATING CENTER. WHILE\r\nOPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 15 KT OR SO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME\r\nMORE WESTERLY AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING\r\nNORTH OF PUERTO RICO. GIVEN THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE\r\nSOMEWHAT SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...ONLY MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE SHORT TERM. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE IVCN\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/8...DUE TO THE\r\nRECENT REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS\r\nWESTWARD. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 12.2N  40.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 12.4N  42.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 12.7N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 12.9N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 13.2N  50.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 15.0N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 17.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 19.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2011\r\n \r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE LARGE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED THIS\r\nMORNING...HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT...BASED ON DATA FROM A SHIP\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.  \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF OPHELIA DOES NOT FAVOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE\r\nIN A FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. \r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND CALLS\r\nFOR ONLY A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC FORECAST IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN...HOWEVER \r\nIT APPEARS THAT OPHELIA IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nADVISORY.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A\r\nLARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nWITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AND IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 12.7N  41.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 13.0N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 13.2N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 13.5N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 14.0N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 15.7N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 18.0N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 20.0N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE LESS ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...A 1200 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN OBSERVATION FROM SHIP\r\nPBSY INDICATES THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 50 KT. \r\nSINCE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS CURRENTLY NOT SUGGESTIVE OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE WAS\r\nSTRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  LATEST ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nSHOW THAT THE STORM IS EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nSHEAR WILL NOT RELENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND SHIPS\r\nPREDICTIONS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COAMPS-TC MODEL...WHICH\r\nIS PART OF THE HFIP SUITE AND HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER SO FAR THIS\r\nYEAR...SHOWS A FASTER DEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN MOST OF\r\nTHE OTHER GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...OR 270/14.  THE\r\nGENERAL TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO FOR OPHELIA REMAINS THE SAME.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS LIKELY\r\nAS OPHELIA...IF IT SURVIVES...NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nHIGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  IT IS ALSO FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nRELIABLE GFS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 13.0N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 13.3N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 13.5N  48.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 14.0N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 14.7N  53.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 16.8N  57.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 19.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 21.0N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH A PORTION OF THE INNER CORE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nSTILL EXPOSED OVER THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.  RECENT IMAGES SHOW\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST UNDER THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CANOPY.  MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM...IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT OPHELIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...WITH SOME WEAKENING LIKELY\r\nIN A FEW DAYS.  SINCE THE CURRENT LGEM GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...THE NHC WIND FORECAST NOW SHOWS LESS\r\nWEAKENING IN 3-5 DAYS.  TWO MODEL EXTREMES HIGHLIGHT THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE.  THE EXPERIMENTAL\r\nCOAMPS-TC MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER SO FAR THIS\r\nYEAR...SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTS\r\nOPHELIA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS AROUND 280/14 AS THE STORM REMAINS SOUTH OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  OPHELIA IS LIKELY TO MOVE ON A\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE RIDGE...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS LEANING MORE TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH...OR RIGHT...OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT\r\nAS MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 13.6N  44.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 13.8N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 14.1N  49.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 14.6N  51.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 15.5N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 17.5N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 20.0N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 22.5N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011\r\n\r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT\r\nOPHELIA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINING NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND NOAA BUOY 41041 RECENTLY REPORTED\r\n1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 45 KT.  BASED ON THE BUOY AND THE LIKELIHOOD\r\nTHAT IT DID NOT SAMPLE THE MAXIMUM WIND...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OPHELIA SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE STORM SHOULD APPROACH THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES IN THE\r\nCENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\nOPHELIA IS EXPERIENCING 20-25 KT OF SHEAR DUE IN PART TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND IN RESPONSE MOST GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR WEAKENING DURING THAT TIME.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN AFTER 72 HR.  THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS WESTWARD MOTION AS IT MOVES NORTH OF\r\nHISPANIOLA.  THIS COULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO CATCH UP WITH THE TROUGH\r\nAND ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR...OR TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF THE TROUGH\r\nAND ENCOUNTER LIGHTER SHEAR.  THE GFS TENDS TOWARD THE LATTER\r\nSOLUTION...WHILE THE GFDL MAKE OPHELIA A HURRICANE AFTER 96 HR.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR\r\nTHE STORM FROM 96-120 HR.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 13.7N  46.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 14.0N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 14.3N  50.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 15.2N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 16.3N  55.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 18.5N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 21.5N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 23.5N  66.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH OPHELIA IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES WITH ALL\r\nOF THE CONVECTION LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...NOAA BUOY 41041\r\nREPORTED PEAK ONE-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 KT WITH A GUST TO 68\r\nKT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE REMOTE CHANCES OF MEASURING THE INTENSITY OF\r\nA SYSTEM WITH JUST ONE OBSERVING STATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A MID-OCEANIC\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nAT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH COULD\r\nFRACTURE...RESULTING IN A LOWER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING\r\nEARLY ON...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...ON THE LOW\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF\r\nOPHELIA ENDED UP WEAKENING FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW GIVEN THE\r\nSOMEWHAT HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED.  \r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND ASCAT DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED...WHICH REQUIRED A SMALL\r\nREPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER.  THIS CHANGE RESULTS IN AN ESTIMATED\r\nMOTION OF 275/12.  MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOW OPHELIA\r\nTURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.  A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED\r\nOVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHING THE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH A MORE POLEWARD\r\nTRACK ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT IN\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THIS SOLUTION...THOUGH THE SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES ARE NOTABLE BY DAY 5.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AFTER 24 HOURS...BUT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND THE TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF/GFS\r\nMODELS.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 13.4N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 13.8N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 14.5N  51.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 15.4N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 16.7N  55.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 19.3N  59.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 21.5N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 24.5N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES.  EVEN WITH VISIBLE PICTURES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUCH AS\r\nIT IS...IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN.  MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nSHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  FROM A\r\nDVORAK PERSPECTIVE...THE SYSTEM IS RATED AS A LOW-END TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  HOWEVER...BUOY...SHIP...AND SCATTEROMETER DATA HAVE BEEN\r\nSAYING OTHERWISE AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. \r\nAS OPHELIA APPROACHES AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST...THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE STORM IS LIKELY TO\r\nINCREASE FURTHER.  SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE\r\nTO THE STRONG SHEAR.  AFTERWARDS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nTROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW NEAR THE STORM\r\nWILL BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC.  BASED ON THIS SCENARIO...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND SOME OF THE OTHER\r\nNUMERICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nIT HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE TO TRACK THE CENTER BUT A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS OPHELIA MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE HIGH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 13.6N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 14.0N  49.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 15.0N  52.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 16.2N  54.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 17.4N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 20.5N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 22.5N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 25.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OPHELIA...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nDEFINED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...\r\nHOWEVER IT IS STILL NOT VERY OBVIOUS.  THE STORM IS QUITE\r\nDISORGANIZED...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ONLY SUPPORT A\r\nLOW-END TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...AN ASCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAGO SUGGESTED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD NOT WEAKENED...SO THE INTENSITY\r\nWILL BE HELD AT 55 KT FOR THE TIME BEING.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO. \r\nBY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST SOME LESSENING\r\nOF THE SHEAR AS OPHELIA NEARS THE SUBTROPICS...SO RESTRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES THAT LONG.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME...280/11...AS OPHELIA CONTINUES TO\r\nBE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE AREA.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE HIGH LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS...AGAIN...SHIFTED A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH IN\r\nCOMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS STILL ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 13.8N  48.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 14.5N  50.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 15.7N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 17.1N  55.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 18.5N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 21.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 23.5N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 25.5N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED\r\nAS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME\r\nFURTHER REMOVED FROM THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ONLY\r\nSUPPORT A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.  SINCE THE WINDS FROM THIS STORM\r\nHAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN HIGHER THAN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WOULD\r\nSUGGEST...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY REDUCED TO\r\n45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT OPHELIA MAY BE MAKING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nPROGRESS AND IS NOW MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT.  THE\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING\r\nOPHELIA NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN MAINTAINING\r\nTHAT HEADING THROUGH DAY 5.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES THAT APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH RELATIVE TO THE CYCLONE.  MOST NOTABLY...THE ECMWF\r\nSHOWS THE HIGH WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD MORE THAN THE\r\nOTHER MODELS BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AND THEREFORE HAS OPHELIA MAKING MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD PROGRESS DURING THAT TIME.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS JUST A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL FASTER\r\nTHAN THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nAS FAR AS INTENSITY...OPHELIA HAS A TOUGH ROAD AHEAD OF IT...AND \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS ALREADY WEAKENING DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH\r\nOPHELIA...REMAINING ABOUT 600 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE STORM AT LEAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  YOU WOULD THINK THAT OPHELIA WOULD NOT\r\nSURVIVE AN ENVIRONMENT LIKE THIS...BUT IT IS OFTEN HARD TO TELL IF\r\nSYSTEMS LIKE THIS WILL HANG BY A THREAD DESPITE THE CONDITIONS. \r\nDUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nVERY LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 14.1N  49.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 14.8N  51.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 16.2N  53.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 17.5N  55.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 18.8N  57.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 22.5N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 25.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n\r\nOPHELIA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF\r\nA LARGE CURVED BAND...ALTHOUGH THIS BAND IS AT A CONSIDERABLE\r\nDISTANCE FROM THE CENTER.  WITH LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...IT IS LIKELY THE WINDS HAVE DROPPED SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 40 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT SHEAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPREDICTION.  IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA WILL WEAKEN\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IF\r\nOPHELIA SURVIVES...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5...SO SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AT THOSE TIMES.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS\r\nANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS OPHELIA MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. \r\nTHERE ARE SOME RATHER LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS\r\nALMOST IMMEDIATELY...WHICH SEEM TO BE RELATED TO THE DEPTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  GENERALLY...THE MODELS THAT SHOW A WEAKER\r\nCYCLONE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF...SHOW THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nCONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE RIDGE.  THE\r\nGFS/HWRF/GFDL MODELS HAVE A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WHICH IS AFFECTED MORE BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THIS DEEPER STRUCTURE CAUSES THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST...TO THE RIGHT OF THE BULK OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE. GIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE\r\nSHALLOW...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT QUITE\r\nAS FAR TO THE WEST AS THE ECMWF OR BAM SHALLOW MODELS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 14.5N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 15.3N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 16.7N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 18.0N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 19.2N  58.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 21.0N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 23.0N  64.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 25.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DRY AIR\r\nCOUPLED WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR HAS\r\nERODED NEARLY ALL OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION...AND WHAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS OCCURRING IN A RAGGED BAND MORE THAN\r\n200 NMI EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON AN EARLIER WIND REPORT OF 31 KT FROM\r\nNOAA BUOY 41041 LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41040\r\nJUST WEST OF THE CENTER HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF THE SURFACE WINDS\r\nBACKING AROUND TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT\r\nOPHELIA MIGHT JUST BE A SHARP OPEN WAVE. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON\r\nBETWEEN 18-00Z TO SEE IF OPHELIA HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14. SMOOTHING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES\r\nAND WOBBLES...CAUSED BY BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nOVER THE PAST 48 HOURS ALSO YIELDS A MOTION VECTOR OF 280 DEGREES.\r\nAS CONTINUED STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT TAKE\r\nTHEIR TOLL ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND ORGANIZATION OF\r\nOPHELIA...THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nINCREASINGLY SHALLOW. THE RESULT IS THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED MORE WESTWARD LIKE THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE\r\nFORECASTING...AND LESS POLEWARD LIKE THE MORE ROBUST GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS ARE INDICATING. ASSUMING OPHELIA STILL EXISTS BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nCYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERMUDA HIGH AND LIFTS\r\nOUT POLEWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS DUE TO THE UNREALISTIC NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE\r\nHWRF MODEL...AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE NEAR A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND SHALLOW BAM\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO ABATE FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS OR SO...ALL THE WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS. IT IS...THEREFORE...\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT OPHELIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR EVEN\r\nAN OPEN WAVE BY 48 HOURS LIKE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM ARE FORECASTING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RATHER LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION OF OPHELIA AND THAT SSTS OF NEAR 29C LIE AHEAD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR OPHELIA TO MAINTAIN SOME\r\nCONVECTION AND AT LEAST TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS THROUGH DAY 4.\r\nBY DAY 5...SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE ON AS THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASES AND OPHELIA MOVES UNDER OR NEAR A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 14.6N  52.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 15.6N  54.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 16.8N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 17.9N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 19.1N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 21.2N  64.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 23.0N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 25.5N  67.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR AND OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50\r\nKT BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 60 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 50-51 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/13...AFTER ONCE AGAIN HAVING TO SMOOTH\r\nTHROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK. THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LIKELY PULLED\r\nTHE BARELY-CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nWHICH IS BELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION.  OTHERWISE...THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. MOST OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nINITIAL POSITION...BUT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nOPHELIA IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN QUITE\r\nSTRONG...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. BY 72 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND...THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO ERODE\r\nAS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE\r\nBAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE OPHELIA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 3-4...AND THEN ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL NORTHWARD\r\nTURN BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS ASSESSING NEAR 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE...THE UW-CIMSS MID-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THE SHEAR IS 15 KT OR LESS. THIS HAS LIKELY\r\nALLOWED THE RECENT RESURGENCE IN INNER CORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE TO\r\nMORE THAN 25 KT IN 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 96\r\nHOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE WAXING AND WANING OF THE CENTRAL\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND OPHELIA MOVES UNDERNEATH OR\r\nNEAR A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 15.5N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 16.3N  55.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 17.5N  58.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 18.6N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 19.7N  61.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 21.8N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 24.0N  66.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 26.5N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n \r\nEASY COME...EASY GO.  AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nOPHELIA NOW APPEARS TO BE ON A WEAKENING TREND.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM MEASURED A\r\nMAXIMUM 925-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 47 KT AND HAS YET TO MEASURE\r\nANY TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE SFMR.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nLAST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE PLANE WAS 1006 MB. \r\nHOWEVER...THE PLANE IS JUST GETTING READ TO SAMPLE THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED ABOUT 100-200 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 45 KT\r\nFOR NOW UNTIL WE CAN GET DATA FROM THAT PART OF THE STORM.  STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING OPHELIA FOR\r\nAT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE POSITION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nRELATIVE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST WILL MEAN THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN A HOSTILE OR FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...IT IS NOT WORTH HAGGLING\r\nOVER 5 OR 10 KT FROM DAY TO DAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSTANT THROUGH 5 DAYS WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT\r\nFLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY.\r\n\r\nBASED ON RECENT FIXES FROM THE PLANE...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS\r\nEITHER JUMPING AROUND OR IS BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED.  A 12-HOUR\r\nAVERAGE GIVES A MOTION OF 300/12.  OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES BLOCKED BY THE MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH TO ITS NORTH.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE EAST WITH A SLOWER MOTION AND IS BOUNDED BY\r\nTHE WESTERNMOST ECMWF AND THE EASTERNMOST HWRF AND GFDL.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AND LIES ON THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION BY DAY 5...BUT THAT SCENARIO IS NOT YET INDICATED BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 16.0N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 16.9N  56.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 18.2N  58.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 19.4N  59.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 20.3N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 22.0N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 24.0N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 26.0N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS NOT CHANGED A LOT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE CENTER STAYING MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE AREA\r\nOF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE MIGHT BE A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THAT.\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST OF OPHELIA. GIVEN THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...IT SEEMS LIKELY\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2 OR 3\r\nDAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD\r\nTHROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL\r\nHINTING THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD FRACTURE AND ALLOW\r\nRESTRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IDEA IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH SHOWS A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS SHADED TOWARD THE STATISTICAL\r\nLGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nNIGHT-VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KT. WHILE THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK CONTINUING FOR A DAY OR\r\nSO...THE DIFFERENCES BECOME QUITE LARGE AFTER THAT TIME. THESE\r\nDIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. IF SYSTEM IS WEAK...OPHELIA IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST UNDER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE. HOWEVER...IF OPHELIA IS DEEP ENOUGH TO FEEL A BREAK IN THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE AROUND 65W...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS MORE LIKELY\r\nWITH A LARGE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...IT WILL\r\nLEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SCENARIO...AND RESULTS IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT\r\nOF THE NHC TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 16.9N  55.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 18.0N  56.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 19.2N  58.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 20.2N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 21.0N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 22.5N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 24.5N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 26.5N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0/45 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND T3.1/47 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A FAIRLY LARGE\r\nSPREAD REMAINS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMODELS SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION DUE TO A WEAKER CYCLONE\r\nEXPECTED...WHEREAS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nTRACK DUE TO A MORE ROBUST AND STRONGER SYSTEM. THE ECMWF...\r\nUKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND ARE\r\nFAIRLY SIMILAR TO EACH OTHER IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE \r\nAND TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL..TVCN...AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSIMILAR TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED IN THE FORM OF A CURVED BAND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\nGIVEN THAT OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGER THAN AVERAGE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE FACT THAT IT HAS ALREADY SURVIVED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF NEAR 30 KT...I SEE NO REASON WHY\r\nTHIS CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD LIKE SOME\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. THE CURRENT SHEAR OF 25 KT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE TO 30 KT AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...AS THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION\r\nALLUDED TO...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES COULD FRACTURE AND\r\nALLOW RESTRENGTHENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE\r\nOPHELIA MOVES INTO THIS REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS MAINTAINED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH\r\nSHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHILE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSTILL OVER SSTS OF NEAR 28C. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND IS A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 17.8N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 18.8N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 19.9N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 20.9N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 21.6N  61.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 23.3N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 25.3N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 27.3N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS WAXED AND WANED...AND THE\r\nINNER CORE WIND FIELD HAS BECOME RATHER AMORPHOUS. BOTH NOAA AND\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE HAD GREAT DIFFICULTY\r\nIN TRYING TO IDENTIFY A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. IN FACT...\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ALLEGED CENTER THAT WE HAVE BEEN TRACKING FOR THE PAST\r\n24 HOURS NO LONGER EXISTS BASED ON RECON DATA...AND THE LONE VORTEX\r\nREPORTED APPEARS TO HAVE DEGENERATED AS WELL. THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nIS THE MEAN POSITION OF ALL OF THE PREVIOUS AND NEWLY-FORMED SMALL\r\nSWIRLS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECON DATA. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON AN EARLIER NOAA DROPSONDE REPORT OF\r\n40 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT BASED ON A 24-HOUR TREND.\r\nOTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF OPHELIA...\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nREASONING. A LARGE SPREAD REMAINS IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH\r\nTHE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOP INDICATING MORE WESTWARD MOTION...WHEREAS THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS ARE ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE INDICATING A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT EVENLY\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE OPHELIA CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAND SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES\r\nDOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL..TVCN.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN OVERALL\r\nAPPEARANCE...NEW CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING IN THE INNER CORE\r\nREGION NEAR THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH MIGHT PRODUCE SOME\r\nSHORT TERM STRENGTHENING. IN THE LONGER TERM...HOWEVER...VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. SINCE\r\nOPHELIA HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY LARGE CIRCULATION...ANY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WOULD USUALLY OCCUR FOR A MORE\r\nTYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THAT TIME...SOME OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...LIKE THE ECMWF...ARE STILL FORECASTING AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TO FRACTURE...WHICH ALLOWS A\r\nSMALL ANTICYCLONE TO DEVELOP ABOVE OPHELIA. THIS SCENARIO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RESULT IN SOME RESTRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE AT 96 AND \r\n120 HOURS WHILE THE OPHELIA IS STILL OVER SSTS OF 28C. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 17.9N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 18.7N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 19.6N  60.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 20.5N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 21.4N  62.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 23.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 24.5N  64.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 27.0N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nIT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER OR NOT OPHELIA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER...BUT IN THE INTEREST OF CONTINUITY ADVISORIES ARE STILL\r\nBEING ISSUED. WITHOUT ANY NEW DATA TO CONTRADICT EARLIER\r\nESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 295/10 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE MORE LINKED TONIGHT THAN\r\nUSUAL.  OPHELIA WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF\r\nA LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...AND THE EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON WHAT KIND OF INTENSITY\r\nOPHELIA CAN MAINTAIN.  THE GFS AND ECMWF...USUALLY THE MOST\r\nRELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...SHOW OPHELIA CONTINUING TO BE BATTERED BY\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY SHEAR AND THEREFORE SHOW A WEAKER\r\nVORTEX MOVING FARTHER WEST.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY OF THE OTHER\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT OPHELIA WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSEQUENTLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD STEERED BY DEEPER FLOW.  BASED ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC\r\nENVIRONMENT AND THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nWILL NOT DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE COMING DAYS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS OPHELIA AS A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AND LEANS IN THE\r\nDIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO JUST TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT OPHELIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH\r\nOF LOW PRESURE AT ANY TIME IF IT IS DETERMINED THAT IT NO LONGER\r\nHAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  SHOULD THAT HAPPEN...NHC WOULD NO\r\nLONGER ISSUE ADVISORIES UNLESS IT REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 18.3N  58.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 18.9N  59.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 19.8N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 20.6N  62.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 21.3N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 23.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 24.5N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 26.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY NOW DISPLACED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER LATER\r\nTODAY...OPHELIA WOULD LACK THE NECESSARY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nTO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS STILL ABOVE THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 20 KT...DUE IN PART\r\nTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF OPHELIA...IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROHIBIT STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. IF\r\nOPHELIA SURVIVES BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AS SUGGESTED BY THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD SINCE IT HAS BECOME\r\nDECOUPLED FROM THE CONVECTION...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE FUTURE TRACK OF OPHELIA WILL DEPEND ON ITS\r\nVERTICAL COHERENCY. MOST OF THE MODELS...WHICH SHOW OPHELIA AS A\r\nRELATIVELY DEEP CYCLONE...TURN THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS MODEL...HOWEVER...KEEPS A\r\nSHALLOWER SYSTEM ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH. GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA...THE GFS SOLUTION IS\r\nPREFERRED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THAT\r\nMODEL AND THE SHALLOW BAM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 18.4N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 19.1N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 19.9N  61.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 20.7N  63.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 21.4N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 22.8N  65.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 25.0N  66.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 27.0N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-30 KT...\r\nWHICH HAS DISPLACED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...SOME\r\nCONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT\r\nBASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AT 0410Z THAT INDICATED A LARGE AREA\r\nOF 35-40 KT WINDS WINDS BETWEEN 150-225 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER IN A\r\nBAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THAT THAT BAND OF CONVECTION HAS\r\nPERSISTED SINCE THE ASCAT PASS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT AT LEAST 35-KT\r\nWINDS STILL EXIST IN THAT RAINBAND. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.\r\nOPHELIA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A SHARP JOG TO THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO THE VERTICAL\r\nCIRCULATION BECOMING MORE SHALLOW AS A RESULT OF THE LOSS OF INNER\r\nCORE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE\r\nCURRENT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO ABATE TO AROUND 15-20 KT\r\nDURING THE NEXT 6-48 HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW MORE\r\nCONVECTION TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER AND CREATE A MORE\r\nVERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION.  AS A RESULT...OPHELIA SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nAN EASTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ERODES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF DISSIPATES THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND SPINS UP ANOTHER CENTER TO THE EAST OF OPHELIA...\r\nTHERE IS MUCH LESS SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE COMPARED TO 24\r\nHOURS AGO. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS BEING DISCOUNTED DUE TO VERY HIGH\r\nSURFACE PRESSURES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE OPHELIA\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nAS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE\r\nTO NEARLY HALF ITS CURRENT VALUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...\r\nWHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME DEEP CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. THE RESULT SHOULD BE AT LEAST A MAINTENANCE OF THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nAGAIN BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOME FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS\r\nMAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS\r\nABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON.\r\nHOWEVER...IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON NEAR THE\r\nALLEGED CENTER...THE SYSTEM COULD DEGENERATE INTO JUST AN OPEN WAVE\r\nBY THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 18.3N  60.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 18.8N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 19.6N  62.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 20.6N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 21.4N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 22.9N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 25.0N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 27.5N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED\r\nOPHELIA AND FOUND A SMALL...WEAK CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH A FEW\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED NEAR THIS CENTER...THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS OVER 150 N MI TO THE EAST.  THE CYCLONE LACKS\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.  THEREFORE\r\nADVISORIES ON OPHELIA ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT CENTER...WHICH IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THERE IS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER COULD EVENTUALLY FORM IN\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE EAST.  THIS NEW CENTER IS\r\nPROBABLY THE ONE THAT IS DEPICTED AS MOVING TO HIGHER LATITUDES BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS.  IF THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF\r\nREGENERATION OVER THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC.  IN ANY\r\nEVENT...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER FOR SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 18.5N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 19.0N  62.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 19.5N  63.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF OPHELIA\r\nHAS FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY\r\nELONGATED...HAS A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED CENTER TO BE CONSIDERED\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 25 KT.  ONLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36-48 HOURS.\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS\r\nOPHELIA MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AT SUBTROPICAL\r\nLATITUDES.  THIS...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 285/4.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE TROUGH NEARING THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD\r\nTURN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH.  THE TRACK OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 17.6N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 18.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 18.7N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 19.5N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 21.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 25.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 29.5N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 37.5N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nFROM THE BIG PICTURE...OPHELIA APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY WELL\r\nORGANIZED WITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN AND A ROUND BALL OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW A MUCH DIFFERENT\r\nPERSPECTIVE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ELONGATED FROM\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND PEAK SFMR VALUES OF ONLY\r\nABOUT 29 KT.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE SET TO 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nTHE SFMR ESTIMATES.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A CHALLENGING ONE THIS EVENING.  WHILE THE\r\nCURRENT OUTFLOW PATTERN WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD SOON RAISE THE SHEAR NEAR OPHELIA...\r\nAND SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS A RATHER POOR INITIAL LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTRUCTURE...ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN WINDS IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST\r\nDAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN AS AN UPPER HIGH\r\nBUILDS CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A\r\nFASTER INTENSIFICATION.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE LAST\r\nRUN...SHOWING OPHELIA ONLY BECOMING A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM\r\nBECAUSE OF MUCH HIGHER FORECAST SHEAR.  SOME OF THIS CHANGE MIGHT\r\nBE DUE TO THE INTERPOLATED OLD OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH IS A GOOD\r\nDEAL FASTER THAN THE GFS...AND IN THIS CASE INTRODUCES SOME\r\nARTIFICIAL SHEAR AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. \r\nI HAVE ELECTED NOT TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY\r\nGIVEN THE GFDL/HWRF STILL SHOWING CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE STATUS...BUT\r\nTHE TREND IN THESE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOULD BE WATCHED.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...HAS\r\nREFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST...A BIT CLOSER TO THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nA LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/3...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.  OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST BY EARLY THURSDAY AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.   A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR BY THE WEEKEND DUE TO A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIVING OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN SIX HOURS\r\nAGO...ALTHOUGH THE SPEED DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CENTER REPOSITIONING...AND IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE TRACK AFTER THAT TIME...A BIT FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 18.4N  59.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 18.8N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 19.5N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 20.9N  60.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 22.4N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 26.3N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 32.0N  61.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 40.0N  57.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY ORGANIZING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES HAVE GAINED SOME\r\nCURVATURE TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH OPHELIA COULD BE\r\nNEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/3.  A\r\nSLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS AS OPHELIA REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGAIN SPEED AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS\r\nIT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH AND A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD MOVE OPHELIA AWAY FROM\r\nTHE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND NEAR OR TO THE EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA THIS WEEKEND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A TOUCH TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT IDEAL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...IT SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS AIDS...\r\nBRINGING THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.  WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS OPHELIA CROSSES A\r\nSHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND ENCOUNTERS SOME INCREASE\r\nIN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 18.6N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 19.2N  60.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 20.4N  60.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 21.8N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 23.4N  62.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 27.7N  62.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 34.0N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 43.5N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT OPHELIA HAS\r\nREGAINED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE\r\n52 KT AND THE HIGHEST BELIEVABLE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS WERE\r\n40 TO 45 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO\r\n45 KT.  THE STORM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nWITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW EVIDENT OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OPHELIA IS NOT IDEAL FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING AS MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHAT INCLUDES THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SHOW THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nWOBBLING...BUT THE OVERALL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR 340/03.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING OR TO THE FORECAST ITSELF.  OPHELIA SHOULD\r\nMOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TODAY AND TOMORROW.  BY 72 HOURS OR SO...A\r\nLARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...OPHELIA IS LIKELY TO ACCELERATE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 18.7N  59.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 19.5N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 20.9N  61.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 22.5N  61.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 24.2N  62.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 28.5N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 36.0N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 45.0N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND PREVAILING AROUND THE\r\nEASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  SINCE THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN APPEARANCE SINCE THE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION\r\nINTO THE STORM EARLIER TODAY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS AT 45 KT.   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA IS PRODUCING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE STORM.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SLOW STRENGTHENING.  IN 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS...DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR AND\r\nAROUND THIS TIME THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR OPHELIA TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AGAIN CLOSE TO A\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE NEW GUIDANCE FROM THE\r\nHURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONT...\r\nAND THEREFORE HAVING UNDERGONE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND THE MOTION IS NOW\r\nABOUT 330/7.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY AROUND 72 HOURS...THE FLOW BETWEEN THE\r\nHIGH AND A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST SHOULD TURN OPHELIA NORTHWARD.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE NEW GFS RUN...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THEN\r\nTHE 0600 UTC RUN.   \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 19.3N  60.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 20.2N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 21.6N  61.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 23.3N  62.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 25.2N  63.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 31.0N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 40.0N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 52.0N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA HAS STRENGTHENED.  PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 64 KT...WITH BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES NEAR 50\r\nKT.  THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 50 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSTORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES ARE\r\nNOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG WITH A LARGER CURVED BAND IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  MICROWAVE DATA...HOWEVER...DOES SHOW A\r\nBETTER-ORGANIZED CORE WITH PERHAPS THE PRIMITIVE STAGES OF AN EYE. \r\nIT IS INTERESTING THAT OPHELIA HAS INTENSIFIED A GOOD DEAL TODAY\r\nDESPITE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CAUSING 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  AS THIS TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF OPHELIA PULLS\r\nAWAY...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BUILD IN CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE\r\nAND CAUSE THE SHEAR TO RELAX TO MORE MODERATE LEVELS.  STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION WOULD SEEM TO BE THE BEST BET...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE IF AN INNER CORE BECOMES\r\nORGANIZED.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT\r\nSHOWS A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY AT 72 HOURS...SPLITTING THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AFTER DAY 3 DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  \r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT CYCLONE IS MOVING A BIT SLOWER...\r\nABOUT 325/5.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nOPHELIA PICKING UP SOME FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ON A TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD START TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DUE\r\nTO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A LARGE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  WHILE THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BEEN STRUGGLING WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW...IN GENERAL THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT AFTER DAY 3...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT.  THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL HAS BEEN THE ECMWF SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY BETWEEN THAT MODEL\r\nAND THE HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 19.4N  60.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 20.3N  61.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 21.9N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 23.7N  62.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 26.1N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 32.5N  62.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 43.0N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 54.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER...AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION THAT WAS WELL\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IS DIMINISHING. THIS INDICATES THAT OPHELIA\r\nIS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND MAY BE STRENGTHENING...\r\nHOWEVER...PENDING VISIBLE IMAGERY LATER THIS MORNING THE\r\nINTENSITY...IS HELD AT 50 KT. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE TO AFFECT OPHELIA...SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR IS PREDICTED\r\nIN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW OPHELIA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AT THE LOW END AND THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFDN\r\nMODELS AT THE HIGH END. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 72 HOURS AS\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING EMBEDDED\r\nIN A BAROCLINIC ZONE BY DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nOPHELIA BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...330/6...IS ONLY A TAD FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS REMAIN IN FARILY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  OPHELIA SHOULD MOVE\r\nFASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nAREA.  THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAND ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES IN THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST.  NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT AS\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS DIFFER ON HOW OPHELIA WILL INTERACT WITH A\r\nHIGH-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 20.0N  61.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 21.1N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 22.8N  62.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 24.9N  62.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 27.8N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 35.5N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 46.5N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 54.0N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DEFINITELY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY...AND NOW IT IS VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. I EVEN SUSPECT THAT AN\r\nEYE FEATURE COULD BE FORMING. THE OUTFLOW IS TRYING TO EXPAND\r\nWESTWARD...BUT UPPER-LEVEL HOSTILE WINDS JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nARE DISRUPTING IT AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 3.5 AND 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. ON THAT BASIS..THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE BUT NOT HOSTILE\r\nENOUGH TO PREVENT OPHELIA FROM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY THE END OF\r\nTHE DAY...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL LGEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nWEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 96\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.\r\nTHE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...AND I FACT...IT IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE ONE THAT HAS PREVAILED THIS SEASON SO FAR. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC CALLS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS\r\nOPHELIA BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. THE\r\nTRACK...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS IS CENTERED WITHIN THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ALTHOUGH VERY\r\nCLOSE...DOES NOT REACH BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nBASED ON DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41044 THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ONCE AGAIN THESE\r\nBUOYS ARE PROVING TO BE VERY VALUABLE IN TRACKING TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 20.9N  61.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 22.1N  62.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 24.0N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 26.5N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 29.5N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 38.5N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 50.0N  52.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/1200Z 55.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO ACQUIRE ORGANIZATION. THERE IS A CYCLONICALLY\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THERE HAS BEEN\r\nAN EYE FEATURE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING ON VISIBLE IMAGES...BUT\r\nTHERE IS DEFINITELY A DISTINCT ONE AT THE MID-LEVELS ON EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE DATA. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON THIS BASIS...OPHELIA HAS BEEN UPGRADED\r\nTO HURRICANE STATUS...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 SEASON.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS KICKED OUT THE SHEAR AND GLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUE TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL\r\nLGEM...ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER HURRICANE.\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...\r\nAND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE. THIS SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN WEAKENING...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY\r\n96 HOURS OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT\r\n8 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING TO REPORT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FOR THE NEXT\r\n2 TO 3 DAYS. OPHELIA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BY FRIDAY\r\nAND THEN RECURVE NEAR THE LATITUDE OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BARELY REACHES BERMUDA\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 21.4N  62.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 22.8N  62.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 25.0N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 27.5N  63.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 30.5N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 41.0N  59.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 51.5N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/1800Z 53.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":30,"Date":"2011-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS STRENGTHENING WITH AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT\r\nON BOTH INFRARED AND NIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS SOME TILT ON THE LATEST MICROWAVE PASSES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...A SOLID EYEWALL\r\nHAS FORMED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM\r\nSAB/TAFB...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...THE INITIAL\r\nWINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LARGE FETCH OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS\r\nHEADED TOWARD THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODEL INSIST\r\nTHAT THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE DIVERTED AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE AND NOT IMPACT OPHELIA DUE TO A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  SINCE THE WATERS STAY WARM FOR AT LEAST TWO DAYS AND \r\nBOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS FORECAST\r\nDECREASING SHEAR VALUE...THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE..  THE NEW FORECAST IS BELOW THE HWRF/GFDL\r\nCONSENSUS...WHICH SHOW THE CYCLONE AT THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN A FEW DAYS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8.  THERE IS\r\nNOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO REPORT IN THE MODELS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND BENDING\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nDURING THAT TIME IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nAFTER RECURVATURE...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nLEFTWARD DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AFTER DAY 2 AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nOPHELIA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 21.9N  62.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 23.2N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 25.7N  63.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 28.8N  63.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 32.8N  62.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 43.5N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 52.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":31,"Date":"2011-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS BEEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS\r\nBASED ON AN EYE FEATURE OCCASIONALLY APPARENT ON BOTH INFRARED AND\r\nNIGHT-VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES A\r\nWELL-DEVELOPED AND CLOSED DEEP-LAYER EYE...ALBEIT TILTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST. A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\nT5.0/90 KT FROM SAB...T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE\r\nADT OF T4.7/82 KT IS THE BASIS FOR THE 85-KT ADVISORY INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. OPHELIA IS\r\nCURRENTLY ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED ALONG 32N LATITUDE. AN UNSEASONABLY\r\nSTRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE\r\nEASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 48 HOURS...AND WILL ACT TO\r\nACCELERATE AND LIFT OPHELIA NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY\r\nDAYS 3-4...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND\r\nBE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMING A STRONG POST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nTHAT WILL TURN EASTWARD NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE ONLY\r\nNOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE TRACKS AFTER 72 HOURS. IN FACT...THE NEW ECMWF RUN BARELY\r\nTAKES OPHELIA AS FAR NORTH AS 45N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nBROUGHT FARTHER SOUTH IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...BUT\r\nNOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA REMAINS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT THAT THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO FLATTEN AND\r\nDISSIPATE AS WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ENCROACH ON THE CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT\r\nIS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE FROM\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY 36-48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. ALTHOUGH FURTHER RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS A POSSIBILITY...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 5 AND 15 KT DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE EYE TILTED AT TIMES AND LIKELY\r\nDISRUPT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. AS A RESULT...ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL OPHELIA REACHES 22C AND\r\nCOLDER SSTS SHORTLY AFTER THE 48-HOUR TIME PERIOD...WHICH IS ALSO\r\nCOINCIDENT WITH AN EXPECTED SHARP INCREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...ICON...THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS CLOSE TO THE LGEM\r\nMODEL AFTER THAT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE NOW HOLDING ON TO OPHELIA AS A ROBUST EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM BEYOND 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 22.4N  62.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 24.2N  63.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 27.0N  63.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 30.1N  62.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 34.6N  61.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 44.3N  57.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 51.5N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":32,"Date":"2011-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A CIRCULAR\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE WAS ALREADY CLEARLY OBSERVED ON\r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 5.0 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE THIS MORNING. SINCE THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVEN\r\nMORE DISTINCT...AND THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE\r\nBEEN AVERAGING NEAR 5.5 WITH RAW NUMBERS RECENTLY REACHING 6.0.  ON\r\nTHIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 100\r\nKNOTS...MAKING OPHELIA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON A SAFFIR\r\nSIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE...THE THIRD MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE\r\nSEASON.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA HAS ALREADY REACHED ITS\r\nPEAK INTENSITY...AND ONLY SMALL INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER COLD WATERS\r\nRESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH AND A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO MOVE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN RECURVE WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\nTHERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC FORECAST SINCE IT IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SHIFT\r\nEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 23.5N  62.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 25.2N  63.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 28.5N  63.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 32.1N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 37.0N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 46.0N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 52.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":33,"Date":"2011-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS MAINTAINED A DISTINCT EYE ON SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE\r\nDAY. THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS BEEN\r\nFLUCTUATING AND THERE IS A SALIENT THUNDERSTORM BAND WRAPPING AROUND\r\nTHE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED WHILE THE ADT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS HAVE BEEN NEAR 5.9 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AVERAGE\r\nOF THESE TWO ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 100\r\nKNOTS.\r\n \r\nSOME INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO WHILE OPHELIA IS OVER WARM WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODELS. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENCOUNTER\r\nCOLD WATERS...RESULTING IN WEAKENING. OPHELIA SHOULD BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND\r\nIN 72 HOURS AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM. \r\n\r\nOPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND\r\nA LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FORCE OPHELIA TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED...AS THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE PASSES EAST OF BERMUDA.\r\nTHE CONFIDENCE IN THE NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGH SINCE THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nEAST OF BERMUDA.\r\n   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 24.7N  63.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 26.5N  63.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 29.8N  62.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 34.0N  62.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 39.0N  60.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 48.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":34,"Date":"2011-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE EYE OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME WARMER\r\nWITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EYEWALL STAYING DEEP. DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY...RANGING FROM 102-112 KT...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL NUDGED UPWARD TO 105 KT. VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT ABOUT THE SAME VALUES\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THAT PERIOD. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE\r\nTHEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES. AFTER DAY 2...A COMBINATION OF VERY COLD WATERS\r\nAND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE RAPID WEAKENING OF OPHELIA AND\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN A BAROCLINIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEAR\r\nTHE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 15 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS BECOME STRONGER BETWEEN A DEEP MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN.  LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE SHIFT IN THE\r\nLATEST GUIDANCE TO THE LEFT...SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING OPHELIA COMING CLOSER TO SOUTHEASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD\r\nTHE ECMWF SOLUTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE SHIFTED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST BEYOND 36 HOURS.  FUTURE LEFTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT HAVE\r\nTO BE MADE BECAUSE THE NEW FORECAST IS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 26.2N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 28.5N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 32.4N  62.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 37.2N  61.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 42.5N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":35,"Date":"2011-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY AND THE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED TO ABOUT 11\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS. THE EYE OF OPHELIA PASSED DIRECTLY OVER NOAA BUOY\r\n41049 AROUND 08Z...AND THE BUOY REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND\r\nOF 84 KT WITH A GUST OF 101 KT AT A HEIGHT OF 5 METERS...AND A\r\nPRESSURE OF 951.9 MB. BASED ON THE BUOY PRESSURE AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 105 KT. WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY BASED ON WINDS OBTAINED FROM A 01/0106Z ASCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 360/15 KT.  OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS THE HURRICANE\r\nCOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SHARPLY\r\nEASTWARD AS IT ENTERS A BAND OF FAST-MOVING WESTERLIES NORTH OF 45N\r\nLATITUDE. BY THAT TIME...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS\r\nCOLDER THAN 20C AND ALSO BEGIN TO MERGE WITH A STRONG FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A QUICK TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL\r\nPOST-TROPICAL WINTER-TYPE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nOPHELIA COULD STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TODAY AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nREMAINS OVER SSTS NEAR 28C AND IN A VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF\r\nLESS THAN 5 KT. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL\r\nTHE 36-HOUR TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...OPHELIA WILL MOVE OVER MUCH\r\nCOLDER WATER AND ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30\r\nKT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND ALSO TRANSITION\r\nINTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL...ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 27.7N  63.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 30.4N  62.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 34.8N  61.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 40.1N  60.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 44.8N  55.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 51.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":36,"Date":"2011-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE HURRICANE HAS A CLEAR EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. ALTHOUGH BOTH\r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING SLIGHTLY...THEY\r\nSTILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KNOTS. BECAUSE OPHELIA IS\r\nSTILL EMBEDDED IN LIGHT SHEAR AND MOVING OVER HIGH SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...ONLY SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED\r\nTODAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS...AND MOST LIKELY OPHELIA WILL BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AS IT PASSES NOT TOO FAR TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE AVALON PENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n \r\nOPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE TIGHTLY PACKED AND IS VERY\r\nCONSISTENT AT LEAST TO 48 HOURS IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nKEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 29.5N  62.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 32.5N  62.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 37.0N  61.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 42.0N  58.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 46.5N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 50.5N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":37,"Date":"2011-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS MAINTAINED ITS IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH A\r\nDISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nBECAUSE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 105 KNOTS. SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS OPHELIA REACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT OPHELIA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL ON MONDAY AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON\r\nPENINSULA IN NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO RECURVE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR\r\n010 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE FAST SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND THE LARGE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES\r\nEASTWARD...OPHELIA SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED...BUT THE ENTIRE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THIS CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND TAKES THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE\r\nNEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 31.6N  62.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 35.0N  62.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 40.0N  60.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 45.0N  56.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 48.0N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 50.0N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":38,"Date":"2011-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nDURING ITS SECOND LIFETIME...OPHELIA HAS BEEN AN OVERACHIEVER AND\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY.  THE BERMUDA RADAR EARLIER INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE EYEWALL WAS QUITE STRONG WITH A CLOSED PRESENTATION.  MORE\r\nRECENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A WARM WELL-DEFINED EYE...A MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN...AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA-T VALUES WERE NEAR 115 KT AT 00Z...WITH\r\nCIMSS ADT VALUES REACHING 122 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED OF 120 KT.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS...AND THE DECREASE IN STRENGTH\r\nSHOULD BE QUITE RAPID BY MIDDAY TOMORROW DUE TO AN INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR AND OPHELIA CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...010/23.  A\r\nGRADUALLY ACCELERATING TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD\r\nBEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH\r\nALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY\r\nMORNING AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.\r\nALMOST ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW OPHELIA NEAR OR JUST TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED LEFTWARD AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\nIT IS WORTH NOTING THAT OF THE GENERALLY RELIABLE GUIDANCE...ONLY\r\nTHE ECMWF KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL\r\nLIKELY BE RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT\r\nTIME...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING AT SOME DISTANCE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  \r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0046 UTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 33.8N  62.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 37.4N  61.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 42.5N  59.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 46.5N  53.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 49.5N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 53.0N  22.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":39,"Date":"2011-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nJUST PRIOR TO 06Z...UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES WERE AVERAGING BETWEEN\r\nT62/119 KT AND T6.3/121 KT. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER... THE ADT\r\nESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING BELOW T6.0/115 KT. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 110 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/25 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH 36 HOURS. OPHELIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO\r\nAND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD...BRINGING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE\r\nOVER OR NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 30\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER OR NORTH OF THE BRITISH ISLES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AFTER THAT BASED ON GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER...AND THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.\r\n\r\nOPHELIA IS MOVING OVER SUB-27C SSTS NOW AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME ELONGATED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST...SUGGESTING THAT SOUTHERLY\r\nTO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE.\r\nMUCH COOLER WATER LIES NORTH OF 40N LATITUDE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 35 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND COLD WATER SHOULD INDUCE STEADY TO\r\nRAPID WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH TRANSITION TO A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM\r\nTHE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 36.2N  61.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 39.9N  60.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 44.4N  56.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 47.9N  48.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 50.5N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 56.0N  17.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":40,"Date":"2011-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nOPHELIA HAS BEGUN TO STEADILY WEAKEN WITH THE EYE NO LONGER\r\nDISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE WAS\r\nTILTED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN\r\nTO THE SOUTH.  BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND RECENT\r\nSATELLITE TRENDS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 95 KT.\r\nOPHELIA WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 18 HOURS.  THE NEGATIVE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  OPHELIA IS ALSO FORECAST TO\r\nINTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST AFTER PASSING THE AVALON\r\nPENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 015/27 KT.  OPHELIA WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nAFTER PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA...THE CYCLONE \r\nSHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY \r\nAND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AS WELL\r\nAS GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 38.7N  60.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 42.4N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 46.4N  53.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 49.6N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 52.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  05/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":41,"Date":"2011-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF OPHELIA HAS GRADUALLY DEGRADED IN\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY...A RECENT AMSR-E MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGE SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS INTACT. THE EYE\r\nHAS BECOME LARGER...BUT REMAINS CLOSED. THE MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE\r\nTO SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED...WITH THE SURFACE CENTER\r\nLOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MID-LEVEL EYE AND ROTATION SEEN IN\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. OPHELIA\r\nIS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE\r\nCOLD WATER AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. OPHELIA WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH A\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/29 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD LATER TONIGHT AND PASS\r\nNEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY EARLY MONDAY\r\nMORNING. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nAND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT 12 AND 24\r\nHOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT AND SHIP DATA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 41.6N  59.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 45.2N  56.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 48.6N  48.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 51.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 56.0N  25.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  05/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":42,"Date":"2011-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nCORRECTED FOR 48-HOUR STATUS IN FORECAST TABLE\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE\r\nTHIS EVENING...WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND DRY AIR WORKING ITS WAY\r\nINTO THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTH. ALSO...RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHIS TILT IS DUE TO THE 30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOWN OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE IN ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...LEANING TOWARD\r\nTHE HIGH END OF A BLEND OF DVORAK CI- AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB. OPHELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY COLD WATERS AND THE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE. BY 24 HOURS...OPHELIA WILL BE \r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND SLOWLY WEAKEN UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 025/29. HOWEVER...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS STRAIGHTFORWARD. OPHELIA WILL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS MOTIONS WILL BRING THE CENTER\r\nOF OPHELIA NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY\r\nMORNING. AFTER THAT TIME...OPHELIA WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND ACCELERATE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nUNTIL IT IS ABSORBED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF\r\nAND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED\r\nON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 43.9N  58.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 46.6N  53.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 49.8N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 53.0N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":43,"Date":"2011-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF OPHELIA HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE\r\nTHIS MORNING...AND THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10-15 CELSIUS.\r\nTHERE REMAINS A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -50C JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ALLEGED CENTER...BUT THE\r\nAREAL COVERAGE OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN RAPIDLY SHRINKING. \r\nHOWEVER...A 03/0556Z AMSU OVERPASS STILL INDICATED A VERTICALLY\r\nSTACKED WARM CORE THROUGH AT LEAST THE 250/200 MB LEVEL...AND THAT\r\nIS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR MAINTAINING OPHELIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/37 KT...BASED ON\r\nEXTRAPOLATION...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES...AND A 03/0621 AMSR-E\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASS. OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THIS\r\nMORNING AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE AVALON PENINSULA BETWEEN\r\nROUGHLY 10-12Z THIS MORNING. VERY COLD WATER BENEATH OPHELIA AND\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nCOMPLETE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY\r\n18Z...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE...AND LIES CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nA 03/0027Z ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A LARGE SWATH OF 50-55 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OCTANTS OF THE CIRCULATION. GIVEN\r\nTHE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THIS REMOTE SENSING INSTRUMENT...OPHELIA WAS\r\nKEPT AS A 65-KT HURRICANE AT 06Z...AND IS NOW A 60-KT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM DUE TO THE LOSS OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION OF\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN THE ASCAT DATA. CANADIAN RADAR DATA FROM\r\nTHE AVALON PENINSULA INDICATE THE RAIN SHIELD AHEAD OF THE CENTER\r\nIS MOSTLY STRATIFORM IN NATURE...FURTHER INDICATING THAT OPHELIA IS\r\nUNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. OPHELIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN OVER COLDER WATER AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nIN 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND FORECAST WIND\r\nRADII ARE BASED ON GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nADVISORY WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 03/0027Z ASCAT OVERPASS\r\nAND SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 46.5N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 49.1N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 51.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 53.0N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  05/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ophelia","Adv":44,"Date":"2011-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL162011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162011\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011\r\n \r\nSURFACE AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT OPHELIA LOST TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA\r\nSHORTLY AFTER 1200 UTC.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN\r\nREPORTED AT SOME OF THE OBSERVING SITES ON THE AVALON PENINSULA...\r\nHOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE\r\nAND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OPHELIA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZNT01 KWBC.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 48.1N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 50.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 52.0N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE\r\nCAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND AMSR-E\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWED DISTINCT CURVED BANDS...AND EARLY\r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE CLOUD CANOPY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM WAS CLOSED...AND HAD WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...SO THAT WILL BE\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS WITH LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN AND DECREASING SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nOF THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TURNS THE\r\nSYSTEM MORE TOWARD THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE\r\nTO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FOR NOW...MOST OF THE RELIABLE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STAYING FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO AVOID RECURVATURE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 10.7N  25.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 11.1N  27.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 11.8N  29.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 12.7N  31.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 13.7N  33.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 16.0N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 18.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 20.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n\r\nAFTER AN EARLIER INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND BANDING\r\nFEATURES...THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nDECREASED A LITTLE SINCE THE 12Z FIXES. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE \r\nT2.8/41 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...AND T1.5/25\r\nKT FROM SAB. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF CENTER HAS\r\nFRACTURED AND DEGENERATED AND THE ADT ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON AN\r\nUNREPRESENTATIVE SHEAR PATTERN. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nSEVERAL 30-KT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN A 1058Z ASCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR\r\nSO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED\r\nEAST-WEST ALONG 20N LATITUDE. HOWEVER...BY 72 HOURS A BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W LONGITUDE AS A BROAD\r\nLOW PRESSURE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MAXIMIZED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nAFTER THAT...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...ALBEIT TO\r\nONLY ABOUT 15 KT...FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SLOWER RATE\r\nOF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND FOLLOWS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 11.0N  26.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 11.4N  28.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 12.2N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 13.2N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 14.2N  33.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 16.4N  36.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 18.4N  38.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 20.5N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nA CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST HALFWAY AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. AS RESULT...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE 18Z TAFB DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS AND HAS BEEN\r\nSLOWLY IMPROVING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. BY 48-72\r\nHOURS...A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 40-45W\r\nLONGITUDE AS A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nPHILIPPE SLOWING DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...\r\nAND THEN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS NUDGED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD\r\nINITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHEN THE SHEAR IS THE LOWEST AND THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS ARE THE GREATEST.  BY 72 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 KT...WHICH MAY\r\nNOT BE ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.\r\nAS A RESULT...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS IN\r\n48-72 HOURS...AND THEN LEVEL OFF SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST BY THE \r\nSHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH\r\nNOTING THAT THE GFDL AND EXPERIMENTAL HFIP INTENSITY MODELS MAKE\r\nPHILIPPE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 11.2N  27.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 11.6N  29.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 12.5N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 13.6N  33.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 14.8N  34.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 16.8N  36.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 19.5N  38.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 22.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nA 2344 UTC ASCAT PASS OVER PHILIPPE INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS LOCATED VERY NEAR A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THAT\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE PROBABLY BARELY 35 KT.  SINCE THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN ON A GENERAL UPWARD TREND OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...AND THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN\r\nNEAR THE AFRICAN COAST IN THE COMING DAYS AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGS\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THEREFORE...THE MOTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH IS CURRENTLY 295/10 KT...IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS PHILIPPE MOVES BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nSYNOPTIC FEATURES.  THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS\r\nUNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A\r\nSLOWER AND WESTWARD-LEANING MOTION WHILE THE BULK OF THE OTHER\r\nMODELS INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.  A\r\nSLOWER MOTION IS FAVORED SINCE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST ENDS UP CLOSE TO THE GFS BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK OF PHILIPPE NEVER REALLY TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WARMER WATERS...AND THE UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD\r\nDEFINITELY BE COOLER AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...PHILIPPE\r\nSHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nINTO AN AREA OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED MAINLY DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING POSSIBLE BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LIES GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS\r\nPHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 11.6N  28.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 12.1N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 13.1N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 14.1N  34.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 15.4N  35.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 18.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 21.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 24.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. THE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE HAS\r\nWIDENED AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND DEEPENED.\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED AND\r\nNOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nOF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS PHILIPPE\r\nREMAINS IN FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 48\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS. THIS LESS\r\nCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE AGGRESSIVE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN THREE TO FOUR DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND WAS NUDGED WESTWARD AT\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 12.0N  29.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 12.8N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 13.9N  33.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 14.9N  34.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 16.2N  35.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 18.5N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 25.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH A\r\nNEW BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 30\r\nKT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. THE MODELS REMAIN\r\nIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PHILIPPE MOVING TOWARD A DEVELOPING\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND GRADUALLY\r\nTURNING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nAFTER THAT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW INDICATING RECURVATURE TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST BY DAY 5...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF MODEL. OUT OF RESPECT\r\nFOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVN AND TVCA.\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE\r\nMOST FAVORABLE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...PHILLIPE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nEXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT AND BE MOVING\r\nOVER SUB-27C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nREMAINS ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT BELOW THE MORE\r\nROBUST GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH STILL INSIST THAT PHILLIPE WILL\r\nBE NEAR CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 12.5N  30.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 13.3N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 14.4N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 15.5N  34.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 16.7N  35.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 19.3N  37.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 26.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE\r\nIS MOST LIKELY NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT\r\nHAS PULSED A COUPLE OF TIMES SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE APPEARANCE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE ON CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY IS QUITE RAGGED...\r\nAND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  THE\r\nLATEST ADT ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT.  PHILIPPE IS BEING\r\nKEPT AT 50 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...AND\r\nITS MOTION IS CURRENTLY 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  OVER THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD AS\r\nA SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 40W LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE\r\nAZORES.  THIS SHOULD KEEP PHILIPPE ON A NORTHWESTWARD BUT SLOWER\r\nTRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AFTER 48 HOURS.  PHILIPPE SHOULD BE\r\nMOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE\r\nEAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW BY DAY 3...BUT THE MODELS APPEAR\r\nTO DIFFER ON HOW MUCH THAT WILL AFFECT THE INTENSITY.  MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX AND TURNS THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD\r\nAND NORTHEASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAMPLIFYING LONGWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE AZORES.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF\r\nMAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THAT TIME...PRESUMABLY\r\nBECAUSE IT HAS PHILIPPE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH AND BEING\r\nSTEERED BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  ASSUMING THAT THE REAL STORY WILL END\r\nUP BEING SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS...THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS BUT\r\nSLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS TO GIVE SOME CREDENCE TO THE WEAKER\r\nECMWF.  \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS PHILIPPE REACHING\r\nHURRICANE STATUS...BUT IT STILL SHOWS STRENGTHENING AND IS HIGHER\r\nTHAN ALL OF THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE MOVES OVER\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND IS AFFECTED BY STRONGER SHEAR.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 14.1N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 15.0N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 16.0N  34.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 16.9N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 17.8N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 20.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 23.0N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 25.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PHILIPPE HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C. HOWEVER...THE CURVED BAND\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW LESS\r\nDISTINCT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH IS THE\r\nAVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 0453 UTC TRMM\r\nOVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. PHILIPPE IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM\r\nWEST AFRICA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW\r\nDOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH...AND THE MODELS ARE\r\nIN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THAT SCENARIO. BEYOND TWO DAYS...\r\nHOWEVER...THE MODELS BECOME QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS\r\nSHIFTED EVEN FARTHER WEST...SHOWING A FAIRLY STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTO NORTHWEST MOTION. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND\r\nGFDN MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THESE DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE\r\nAND THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...LIES BETWEEN\r\nTHE EXTREMES AND ENDS UP NEAR THE GFS AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 15-20 KT\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE NOT\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS...WHICH SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 24-36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 14.7N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 15.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 16.4N  35.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 17.3N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 18.3N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 20.8N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 23.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 25.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 26 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING...BUT OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN OF\r\nPHILIPPE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nMOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  THE STORM IS BEING AFFECTED BY\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED\r\nOVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO\r\nDIMINISH...ONLY SLIGHT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE.\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF 20N\r\nAND...IF THIS FLOW PERSISTS...PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS CONSERVATIVE AND ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IT IS POSSIBLE...\r\nHOWEVER...THAT THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 310/10.  THE STORM SHOULD MOVE ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NORTH OF 30N...MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nTURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH\r\nDEPICTS A WEAKER CYCLONE...IS AN OUTLIER IN THAT IT FORECASTS\r\nPHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.  SINCE THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN EXPECTED...THE\r\nLATTER SCENARIO IS INDEED PLAUSIBLE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 15.2N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.0N  35.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 17.0N  36.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 18.0N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 19.1N  38.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 22.0N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 24.5N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 26.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THIS MORNING\r\nWITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD LINES OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES 50 KT AGAIN FOR THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED ESTIMATE.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL BEING IMPEDED OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND ASSUMING THE SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TOO\r\nMUCH...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW. \r\nHOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. \r\nAS PHILIPPE MOVES FARTHER NORTH...WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING TO COMMENCE BY 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE RELIABLE\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW NEAR 315/7.  DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE\r\nOVER THE EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC.  BY DAYS 3 TO 5...HOWEVER...THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SPLITS INTO 2 GENERAL CAMPS.  SOME MODELS SUCH AS\r\nTHE HWRF...GFDL...GFDN...AND NOGAPS TURN PHILIPPE SHARPLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nOTHER MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE THE CYCLONE\r\nMISSING THE TROUGH AND BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  GIVEN\r\nTHE WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION FROM 72 TO 120\r\nHOURS AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 15.4N  34.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 16.1N  35.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 17.1N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 18.2N  37.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 19.4N  38.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 22.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 23.5N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 24.5N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 26 2011\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 2304 UTC...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS\r\nSHOWN IN THE SWATH WERE 40 KT WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THIS DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THIS IS THE FIRST\r\nREAL GROUND-TRUTH DATA WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER PHILIPPE IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...AND THE LOWERING OF THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SEEN MORE AS\r\nAN ADJUSTMENT RATHER THAN A WEAKENING OF THE STORM.  NONETHELESS...\r\nPHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT SHOULD LIMIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...IF NOT INDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE SHEAR COULD\r\nDIMINISH BY DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCOL...AND THAT COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP PHILIPPE FROM\r\nDEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED PRIMARILY DUE TO THE ADJUSTED INITIAL INTENSITY AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO\r\nACQUIRE A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO WHEN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE LIFTS NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NORTH OF THE\r\nCAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SET...FIRST SHOWN BY THE\r\nECMWF...MAINTAINS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  SINCE PHILIPPE IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANYWAYS...IT\r\nSHOULD BECOME BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH AND WOULD MOST\r\nLIKELY FOLLOW THE WESTERN CLUSTER OF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS THEREFORE A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE TVCA\r\nCONSENSUS...AND EVEN SHOWS A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND AT DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 15.9N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 16.5N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 17.4N  36.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 18.3N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 19.5N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 22.0N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 24.0N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 25.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTHIS MORNING. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE\r\nTO ABOUT 20 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...ACCORDING TO THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL. THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE\r\nSINCE THE TIME OF THE 2304 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR...WHICH\r\nIS BEING PRODUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF\r\nPHILIPPE...IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A VERY GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONVERSELY...THE REGIONAL\r\nHURRICANE MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE GAINING STRENGTH...ESPECIALLY BEYOND\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE EXPECTED UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nAND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...LOCATED\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF PHILIPPE LIFTS OUT.\r\nTHIS FLOW PATTERN COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN A BIT TO THE LEFT\r\nWITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. IN TWO\r\nTO THREE DAYS...ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH BUT THEN\r\nBYPASS PHILIPPE...CAUSING IT TO TURN NORTHWARD. IN ITS WAKE...THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD ONCE AGAIN...TURNING\r\nPHILIPPE BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY DAY 5. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT\r\nSPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST THE MODELS...THEY HAVE COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 16.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 16.7N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 17.6N  37.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 18.7N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 19.9N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 22.3N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 24.0N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 25.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY WESTERLY SHEAR WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER CLEARLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  BLENDING DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40\r\nKT...WHICH IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR MAY WEAKEN A LITTLE IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEARS A COL REGION IN THE UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC FLOW...IN GENERAL THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT APPEARS\r\nTO BE HOSTILE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE. \r\nHOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN\r\nFASTER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS MOVED SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 305/4.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nBY DAYS 3 TO 5...A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE IS PREDICTED\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF PHILIPPE.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT\r\nWITH TIME.  THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE REDUCED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 15.8N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 16.5N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 17.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 18.6N  38.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 19.9N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 22.7N  41.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 24.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 24.5N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nWESTERLY WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH HAS\r\nDISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION MORE THAN 100 NM TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RATHER RELENTLESS OVER\r\nPHILIPPE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ONLY DROPPING BELOW 15 KT\r\nBRIEFLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR COMBINED WITH MARGINAL SSTS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING OF PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...AND LITTLE CHANGE THEREAFTER. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LGEM MODEL THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND WELL BELOW THE DYNAMICAL\r\nHURRICANE MODELS WHICH CONTINUE TO INSIST ON STRENGTHENING THE\r\nCYCLONE DESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nPHILIPPE COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW DURING THE PERIOD\r\nIF THE CONVECTION BECOMES DISPLACED EVEN FARTHER FROM THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 285/6...\r\nTAKING PHILIPPE A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\nPHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS\r\nFEATURE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A\r\nBEND BACK TO THE LEFT AND FASTER FORWARD SPEED AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES NORTH OF PHILIPPE. THE GUIDANCE FOR\r\nHAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO THE LEFT AND IS ALSO FASTER FOR THIS\r\nCYCLE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF\r\nAND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND THE\r\nTREND IN THE GUIDANCE. EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT...THE\r\nNEW NHC TRACK STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE RELIABLE\r\nMODELS AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. IF PHILIPPE IS BECOMING A\r\nSHALLOWER CYCLONE...A TRACK EVEN MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN SHOWN\r\nHERE IS POSSIBLE...SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE ECMWF. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 16.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 16.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 17.5N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 18.9N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 20.3N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 22.6N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 24.0N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 25.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON PHILIPPE.  DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME QUITE LIMITED AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS\r\nLOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...PHILIPPE IS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM...BASED ON A RECENT DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM TAFB.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT\r\nFOR A SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN ABOUT 36 AND 60 HOURS.  THE SHEAR ALONG\r\nWITH MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SOME DRIER AIR TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN PHILIPPE BECOMING A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND MUCH BELOW THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE THAT\r\nDEEPENS THE CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  THE UPDATED FORECAST ALSO NOW\r\nSHOWS PHILIPPE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 4-5\r\nDAYS...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASE FURTHER.  IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES\r\nNOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER OVERNIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  AFTER 72 HOURS...A STRONG MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO TURN PHILIPPE...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...MORE TOWARD THE WEST LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED WESTWARD AND THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 16.1N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 16.5N  38.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 17.7N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 19.1N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 20.6N  42.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 22.8N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 24.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z 25.5N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN\r\nINTENSITY AND COVERAGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF\r\nPHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO WRAP AROUND\r\nTHE CIRCULATION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND ADT VALUES\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS. OTHER THAN A BRIEF DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR IN\r\n36-48 HOURS...THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS SHEAR VALUES OF 20 KT OR\r\nHIGHER OVER PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ACCORDINGLY...\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A\r\nSLIGHT WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE FSSE...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS\r\nSYSTEM AND BRING PHILIPPE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN\r\nEXCESS OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. BEYOND\r\nTHAT...PHILIPPE...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE LEFT AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND BUT IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 16.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 17.2N  39.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 18.4N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 19.8N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 21.2N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 23.2N  45.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 24.5N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z 25.5N  52.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE REMAINS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS EXPOSED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. \r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE STORM\r\nAPPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MOTION WILL THEN CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS...UNTIL A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC\r\nMOVES EASTWARD AND ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RESTRENGTHEN.\r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD...IN LARGE\r\nPART BECAUSE OF A MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED.  PHILIPPE IS STILL\r\nSTRONGLY SHEARED...AND IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT CONVECTION WILL BE\r\nABLE TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nINDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND\r\nTHEN INCREASE AFTER THAT.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4\r\nDAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 16.4N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 17.3N  39.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 18.3N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 20.0N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 21.5N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 23.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 24.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1200Z 25.0N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY IS\r\nUNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nPERIODICALLY EXPOSED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB. \r\n\r\nPHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ALL SUGGEST THAT A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...INDUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nATLANTIC...WILL ALLOW PHILIPPE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nTWO DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD...RESULTING\r\nIN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NOW\r\nSUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE...RESULTING IN AN MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AND AN INCREASED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION TOWARD\r\nTHE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nOVER PHILIPPE....WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL NOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD BRIEFLY\r\nDECREASE BETWEEN 24 AND 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW PHILIPPE TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS...THE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FOR 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY THE END OF THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 17.0N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 17.9N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 19.3N  42.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 20.9N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 22.1N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 23.6N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 25.0N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1800Z 25.0N  56.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED CLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE CONSERVATIVE. THE UPPER-WIND PATTERN AHEAD OF PHILIPPE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO CUT-OFF AND MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN A REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nNOW CALLS FOR SOME MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...IN AN AREA OF STRONG\r\nNORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AND THE GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS. \r\nPHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 17.4N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 18.3N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 19.8N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 21.2N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 22.2N  47.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 23.8N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 24.5N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0000Z 24.5N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE\r\nBALL OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nESTIMATED TO BE TO THE SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTIVE MASS.  SINCE THE\r\nOVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  UW-CIMSS\r\nAND SHIPS ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE CLOSE TO 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW NEAR 17N46W.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A\r\nBRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THEREAFTER...PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES\r\nAFFECTED BY EXTREMELY STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA.  THIS\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nSINCE IT IS NOT CLEAR JUST HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION THE CENTER IS LOCATED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN 300/11.  PHILIPPE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 17.8N  41.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 18.6N  43.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 19.9N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 21.3N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 22.3N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 23.9N  52.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 24.5N  56.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0600Z 24.5N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF THE POSSIBLY ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF\r\nPHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A CIRCULAR BALL OF CONVECTION.\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nTECHNIQUES ARE 45-55 KT...BUT THE LATEST FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 35-45\r\nKT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT. PHILIPPE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO...BUT WITH SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION IT MAY BE\r\nDIFFICULT FOR THE CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY MUCH...IF AT ALL. BY 48\r\nHOURS...PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO BE BLASTED BY 30 KT OF NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH...AND THAT SHOULD\r\nINDUCE SOME WEAKENING. ODDLY ENOUGH...MANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS\r\nEITHER SHOW STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE OR VERY LITTLE WEAKENING\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS WHY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nINDICATES ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING EVEN IN THE FACE OF SEEMINGLY\r\nHOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. IF PHILIPPE CAN SURVIVE ITS\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH SO FAR IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO DO...THEN IT MAY BE\r\nABLE TO HOLD ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WINDS RELAX\r\nA BIT BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE AND IS MOVING 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT.  AS THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A SECOND\r\nSTRONGER MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LIES A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TVCA MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nIN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN\r\nSWITCHES TO A BIT SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS FROM 96-120 HOURS.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS NOT APPRECIABLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 18.6N  42.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 19.7N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 21.1N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 22.3N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 23.1N  49.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 24.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 24.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS BEEN A CONUNDRUM TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS\r\nBEEN ELONGATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES HAVE SHOWN A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE WELL TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED CENTER.  IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS REFORMING FARTHER NORTH...BUT IT IS NOT YET\r\nCERTAIN HOW MUCH IT IS TUCKED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION.  BECAUSE\r\nOF THE UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRUN THE GAMUT FROM 35 TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n40 KT...BUT THAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER\r\nCONTINUES TO REFORM OR GET PULLED FARTHER NORTH INTO THE\r\nCONVECTION.  PHILIPPE HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nNORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE ABLE TO WITHSTAND THE HOSTILE\r\nCONDITIONS AND THUS ONLY SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND KEEPS PHILIPPE AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 310\r\nDEGREES AT 11 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nREASONING.  PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BY DAY 3 AS IT COMES\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 5...ESPECIALLY AS PHILIPPE\r\nBECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM AS IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY\r\nFLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THERE\r\nARE REALLY NO OUTLIERS IN THE SUITE OF MODELS.  THEREFORE...LITTLE\r\nCHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST COMPARED WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 20.2N  43.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 21.4N  44.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 22.8N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 23.8N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 24.5N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 25.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 25.0N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 24.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME VERY RAGGED THIS\r\nEVENING.  THERE ARE NO DISTINCT BANDS OF CONVECTION AND THE CLOUD\r\nTOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING.  A TIMELY 2344 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN ASSESSING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND\r\nLOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW AN AREA OF\r\n30-35 KT WINDS.  WITH THE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF THAT INSTRUMENT...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE\r\nTRICKY.  IN THE SHORT TERM...SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND\r\nPHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER.  THIS FAVORS\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR A\r\nSLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.  BY 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM OPHELIA.  ONE WOULD EXPECT THE\r\nCYCLONE TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING AT TIME...HOWEVER MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES...GIVING A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 315/11.  PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE\r\nBUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION ESPECIALLY IF IT BECOMES A\r\nWEAKER SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nREPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS\r\nFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE ECMWF MODEL.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 21.2N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 22.3N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 23.5N  47.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 24.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 24.8N  50.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 25.5N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 25.5N  58.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 25.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nCORRECTED INITIAL MOTION\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT EVOLUTION OF PHILIPPE IS A BIT OF A MYSTERY. A COUPLE OF\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A WELL-\r\nDEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...SUGGESTING THAT THERE HAS\r\nBEEN A NET INCREASE IN THE STRUCTURAL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nDURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE STORM IS SOMEWHAT\r\nCHAOTIC...WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY.  GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN\r\nNO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A RELATIVE RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR DURING\r\nTHE LAST 12-24 HOURS...PHILIPPE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED YET. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE BETTER ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE STORM WOULD SEEM TO\r\nBE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS\r\nLOW. WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS PHILIPPE SHOULD\r\nENTER A REGION DOMINATED BY THE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF OPHELIA.\r\nASSUMING THAT PHILIPPE CAN WITHSTAND WIND SHEAR OF THAT\r\nMAGNITUDE...THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION\r\nTOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM BUT A\r\nBIT LOWER AFTER 36 HOURS...JUST BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 315 DEGREES AT 11\r\nKT...BUT THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN EARLIER CENTER FIXES MAKES THIS\r\nESTIMATE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW PHILIPPE BEING\r\nSTEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE\r\nHEIGHTS TO RISE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WHICH...IN TURN...SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN PHILIPPE'S TURNING WESTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONTINUES TO\r\nFAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE WHICH HAS A WEAKER VERSION OF PHILIPPE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS WELL TO THE LEFT OF MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT LATER\r\nTIMES SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS ASSUME A STRONGER CYCLONE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 21.9N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 22.9N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 23.9N  47.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 24.5N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 24.9N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 25.1N  55.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 25.0N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 24.5N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nFINALLY...WE CAN CLEARLY SEE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE.  A SERIES OF\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES FROM OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED CENTER DISSIPATED...AND A NEW CENTER FORMED FARTHER\r\nNORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  NOW THERE IS NO DOUBT SINCE\r\nTHE CENTER HAS RECENTLY POPPED OUT OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nBECAUSE OF THE POSSIBLE RE-FORMATION...THE CENTER IS MOVING AT AN\r\nUNCERTAIN 325 DEGREES AT 11 KT.  PHILIPPE IS STILL GAINING SOME\r\nLATITUDE AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE...BUT A NEW ANTICYCLONE IS ALREADY BUILDING\r\nFARTHER NORTH AND SHOULD FORCE THE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED DURING THIS PERIOD.  THEREAFTER...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nINDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL BUILD FARTHER SOUTH AND FORCE\r\nPHILIPPE ON A WEST TO JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST HEADING ON DAYS 3 AND\r\n4.  ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY OF THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT BUILD THE\r\nRIDGE AS MUCH AND ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE GAINING LATITUDE. \r\nDESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...PHILIPPE SHOULD HAVE MADE ENOUGH\r\nWESTWARD PROGRESS BY DAY 5 TO START FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND ALL THE MODELS SHOW\r\nSOME DEGREE OF A NORTHWARD TURN BEGINNING AT THAT TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DIVERGES TO THE SOUTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AFTER\r\n48 HOURS IN THE DIRECTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND ENDS UP VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nA 1212 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A FEW 40-KT WIND VECTORS JUST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...PHILIPPE WILL LIKELY NOT MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY NOW THAT\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER THE SYSTEM.  BELLIGERENT\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR OF AT LEAST 30 KT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PHILIPPE\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS COULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX A BIT BY DAY 5 ONCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE REACHES AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BETWEEN THE\r\nHOSTILE NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE DEEP\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE FORECAST THEREFORE ALLOWS\r\nFOR PHILIPPE TO REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM STATUS AT THAT TIME.  IN\r\nGENERAL...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE LGEM AND\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...THE LATTER OF WHICH MAINTAINS PHILIPPE AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 22.9N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 23.8N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 24.6N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 25.3N  50.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 25.7N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 25.5N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 25.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 26.0N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE THROUGH THE DAY EXCEPT\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN RE-COVERED BY DEEP CONVECTION\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45\r\nKT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.9 FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT. \r\nHILARY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A COL REGION BETWEEN AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTH AND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH COVERING\r\nTHE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THE\r\nCOL REGION WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nCONTINUOUSLY BLASTED BY STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS ARE INDICATING UP TO\r\n40 KT OF SHEAR WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS PARADOXICAL...\r\nHOWEVER...THAT NEARLY EVERY INTENSITY MODEL IS EITHER SHOWING\r\nPHILIPPE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY OR STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS HARD TO BELIEVE GIVEN THE HOSTILE\r\nCONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS ALONG THE LOWER BOUND OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS MOVING AT 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AND IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT COMES\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH TO ITS\r\nNORTH.  THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES NOT BECOME\r\nSIGNIFICANT UNTIL AFTER 72 HOURS.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nINDICATING THAT PHILIPPE WILL RECURVE BY DAY 4 OR 5 AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE GFS IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER AND KEEPS PHILIPPE ON A WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE...MOST LIKELY BECAUSE IT APPEARS TO DE-AMPLIFY THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC TROUGH SOONER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE BEGINNING OF A SLOW RECURVATURE BY DAY 5 BUT IS\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NOT AS FAST AS THE 12Z\r\nECMWF AND UKMET MODELS AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 23.5N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 24.2N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 25.0N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 25.7N  51.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 26.1N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 26.0N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 26.5N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 28.5N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nA PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON WERE VERY\r\nHELPFUL IN FIXING THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE AFTER THE CENTER BECAME\r\nOBSCURED...AND INDICATED THE CYCLONE WAS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8.  THE MICROWAVE\r\nDATA ALSO SHOWED A VERY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE\r\nRING...BUT THE CURRENT INFRARED DEPICTION SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL\r\nNORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM OPHELIA IS BEGINNING TO TAKE A TOLL. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 45 AND 35\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY EXCEED 40 KT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...SUCH THAT PHILIPPE COULD WELL SUFFER A BEHEADING AT THE\r\nHANDS OF OPHELIA.  THE LGEM...TRADITIONALLY THE BEST INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS MODEL.  THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE IS INEXPLICABLY INDIFFERENT TO THE SHEAR AND SHOWS LITTLE\r\nNET CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nSHOULD PHILIPPE SURVIVE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN\r\nAND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AT THAT\r\nTIME. \r\n\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN THE TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN PHILIPPE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND PERHAPS WEST OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE STRENGTH OF THIS TURN WILL\r\nDEPEND ON HOW MUCH CONVECTION PHILIPPE CAN MAINTAIN AS THE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES...WITH A WEAKER OR SHALLOWER SYSTEM\r\nMAINTAINING A NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION LONGER.  BY DAY\r\nFOUR...PHILIPPE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A LARGE TROUGH OFF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST AND TURN NORTHWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AT THAT POINT...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOWING\r\nPHILIPPE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AND THE GFS MUCH FARTHER SOUTHWEST. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND SHALLOW BAM...UNDER THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT PHILIPPE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN MUCH VERTICAL\r\nCOHERENCE OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 24.0N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 24.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 25.5N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 26.1N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 26.5N  53.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 27.0N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 28.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 31.0N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH PHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE STORM IS NOT WEAKENING. IN FACT...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nNOW AS COLD AS -85C. A 0501 UTC AMSR-E OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION...AND THAT THE VORTEX WAS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH\r\nHEIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. HOWEVER...\r\nRECENT ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.\r\nPHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...THE\r\nSAME ONE THAT IS INFLUENCING THE TRACK OF OPHELIA...ERODES THE\r\nRIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SHARPER TURN AT THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS ABOUT\r\nMIDWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF MODEL.\r\n \r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF\r\nOPHELIA...IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING PHILIPPE. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nTHE SHEAR VECTOR TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND INCREASING TO NEAR 40\r\nKT DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THIS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nSHOULD CAUSE AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING. IF PHILIPPE IS ABLE TO\r\nSURVIVE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...IT MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO\r\nRESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS IT MOVES INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOWER\r\nSHEAR. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...A BURST OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE\r\nLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE NEAR THE LGEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 24.3N  47.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 25.0N  48.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 25.7N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 26.2N  52.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 26.4N  54.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 26.6N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 28.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 32.0N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":30,"Date":"2011-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nPRIMARILY LIMITED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 45 KT BASED ON SIMILAR DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nAND HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 300 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKT.  GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS ARE INDICATING THAT A RIDGE AXIS WILL\r\nBUILD SOUTHWESTWARD AS HURRICANE OPHELIA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA...AND\r\nTHIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE PHILIPPE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION\r\nBETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS.  THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO REACH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND CONSEQUENTLY MAKE A SLOW TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  ALL OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE GFS SHOWS A SMALLER CUT-OFF\r\nLOW AND LEAVES PHILIPPE IN A WEAKER STEERING FLOW.  THIS MAKES THE\r\nGFS A SLOWER...SOUTHERN OUTLIER RELATIVE TO THE OTHER MODELS.  OUT\r\nOF RESPECT FOR THAT MODEL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.\r\n\r\nTHIRTY TO FORTY KNOTS OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nAFFECT PHILIPPE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT IS BECOMING\r\nMORE APPARENT THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE RESILIENT ENOUGH TO WITHSTAND\r\nTHIS ENVIRONMENT.  PHILIPPE WILL BY NO MEANS BE A HEALTHY-LOOKING\r\nCYCLONE...BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE TOO DIFFICULT FOR IT TO MAINTAIN\r\nCONVECTION AND REMAIN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE IT MOVES OVER\r\nWARMER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AND INDICATES WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS.  SOME\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN PHILIPPE ENTERS\r\nA LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS OF\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE...IS NOT AS HIGH AS THE INTENSITY MODELS DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 24.8N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 25.4N  49.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 25.9N  51.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 26.1N  53.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 26.0N  59.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 28.0N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 30.5N  58.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":31,"Date":"2011-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT SWATH PARTIALLY CAUGHT PHILIPPE AT 1331 UTC...AND SOMEWHAT\r\nSURPRISINGLY...IT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 55-KT WIND BARBS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THIS IS BEING SET AS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY...AND IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DUE TO A POTENTIAL LOW\r\nBIAS IN THE DATA...AND BECAUSE THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD WAS NOT\r\nMEASURED BY THE INSTRUMENT.  GIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD BUT INDICATES THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN OF WEAKENING\r\nAND RE-STRENGTHENING AS BEFORE.  THE REASONING FOR THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED.  STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nIMPACT PHILIPPE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO AND SHOULD INDUCE SOME\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX BY DAY 4 WHEN PHILIPPE\r\nREACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS...AS WELL AS THE GFDL...ARE SUGGESTING THAT SOME \r\nSTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nAREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA...\r\nAND THAT SHOULD TURN PHILIPPE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48\r\nHOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP IN THE\r\nRIDGE BY DAY 3 WITH PHILIPPE RESPONDING BY SLOWING DOWN AND TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE\r\nMODELS ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT PHILIPPE WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  THE GFS\r\nIS STILL A SLOWER AND SOUTHERN OUTLIER...HAVING PHILIPPE MISS THE\r\nTROUGH AND GETTING STUCK TO THE SOUTH OF A POST-FRONTAL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM.  DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON DAYS\r\n4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII AND THE\r\n12-FT SEAS RADII WERE REQUIRED ON THIS FORECAST ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 25.2N  49.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 25.6N  50.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 25.9N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 25.8N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 25.7N  57.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 26.5N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 28.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 32.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":32,"Date":"2011-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 01 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN SPITE OF MORE THAN 30 KT OF\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS\r\nAROUND 0045 UTC SHOWED A MAXIMUM WIND OF 58 KT NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING EVEN MORE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST A LITTLE\r\nWEAKENING AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING...AND FALLING BELOW 20 KT AS PHILIPPE MOVES UNDER A\r\nSMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS AND\r\nRE-STRENGTHEN A LITTLE IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF PHILIPPE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS\r\nEVENING...BUT BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 290/08. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS\r\nPHILIPPE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF PHILIPPE. BY DAY 3...THE\r\nLARGE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA WILL WEAKEN\r\nTHE RIDGE AND ALLOW PHILIPPE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. HOWEVER...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IN THE DETAILS OF THIS TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...AT DAY 5\r\nTHE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FORECAST POSITIONS OF THE SLOWER GFS AND\r\nTHE FASTER ECMWF IS MORE THAN 550 NM. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS HAS\r\nTRENDED EVEN SLOWER AND FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AS IT IS A BIT WEAKER AND SLOWER MOVING WITH THE TROUGH\r\nINTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GIVEN THE LARGE AND APPARENTLY\r\nINCREASING UNCERTAINTY...LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND WAS ADJUSTED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT RADII IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE WERE ADJUSTED BASED\r\nON DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 25.4N  49.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 25.8N  51.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 26.0N  53.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 25.8N  57.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 26.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 28.0N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 31.5N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":33,"Date":"2011-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0100 UTC...WHICH INDICATED THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF PHILIPPE WERE NEAR 60 KT...THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  PHILIPPE IS A STRONGLY SHEARED\r\nTROPICAL STORM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATE THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE...ALBEIT SHEARED...REMAINS\r\nFAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED.   \r\n\r\nPHILIPPE IS GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD...AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE\r\nSAME SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM\r\nREMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN\r\nTHREE TO FOUR DAYS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED TO THE LEFT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FEW DISCUSSIONS...\r\nTHERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40 KT...ACCORDING TO\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...IT HAS YET TO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO WEAKEN. THE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS UNANIMOUSLY CALL FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. AFTER \r\nTHREE DAYS...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE\r\nRESTRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR DECREASES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...\r\nLIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE AT THE LATTER FORECAST TIMES\r\nAPPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM BECOMING\r\nABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT BY DAY 5. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL\r\nMODEL SHOWS PHILIPPE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE...PERHAPS DUE TO\r\nBAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENTS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE EXTREMES AND FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 25.6N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 25.8N  52.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 25.7N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 25.6N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 25.6N  58.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 26.5N  61.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 28.5N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 32.0N  56.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":34,"Date":"2011-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS BECOME AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ACCOMPANIED BY A\r\nSHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND IT ONLY\r\nTOOK 30-40 KT OF SHEAR TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.  IN\r\nADDITION...VARIOUS SATELLITE PRODUCTS FROM THE CIMSS GROUP AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE PROVIDING ESTIMATES BETWEEN 40 AND 45\r\nKT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 45 KT ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nAS THE DEEP CONVECTION BECAME SHEARED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLIER\r\nTHIS MORNING...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARED TO MAKE A JOG TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE 12-HOUR SMOOTHED MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A WESTWARD MOTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS PHILIPPE IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO\r\nITS NORTH.  THE CYCLONE REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CREATED BY\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE IT TO TURN SLOWLY NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3 AND 4.  SOME ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nIS FORECAST ON DAY 5 AS PHILIPPE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS TOWARD THE BAM SHALLOW\r\nMODEL...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE HAD A MORE ACCURATE MOTION RECENTLY.\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST SHOWS A WIDER AND FASTER RE-CURVATURE\r\nTHAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS...AND THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE\r\nECMWF AND THE BAM SHALLOW AND MEDIUM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.  THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE\r\nHAS PEAKED AND SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THAT PERIOD.\r\nTAKING IT A STEP FURTHER...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN\r\nSHOWING PHILIPPE DISSIPATING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 3.\r\nALTHOUGH THAT IS A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE MAIN INTENSITY MODELS FOR NOW AND SHOWS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF SOME RE-STRENGTHENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...ALL OF WHICH INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE WILL BECOME A\r\nSIGNIFICANT HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 26.3N  51.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 26.5N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 26.3N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 26.2N  57.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 26.3N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 28.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 30.0N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 32.5N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":35,"Date":"2011-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nA NEW ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND IS PARTIALLY COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PHILIPPE.\r\nDVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS RECENTLY INCREASED TO 45 KT DUE TO\r\nTHE NEW CONVECTION. THEREFORE...THE WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLOUD-TRACKED SATELLITE WINDS INDICATE THAT\r\nA 60-KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK IS CURRENTLY POINTED DUE SOUTH INTO\r\nPHILIPPE...SO THE CYCLONE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF BELLIGERENT\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE.  THESE NEGATIVE\r\nFACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS.  THE SHEAR COULD RELAX AND FOSTER SOME RE-STRENGTHENING\r\nBY DAY 3 WHEN PHILIPPE REACHES A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nHOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN\r\nEARNEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THIS WOULD BE A MUCH MORE UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT THAN THE ONE PHILIPPE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR MOST OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AND CONTINUES TO SHY AWAY FROM THE HURRICANE-\r\nPRODUCING GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  ON THE OTHER END OF THE\r\nSPECTRUM...THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT\r\n3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS AVERAGING A MOTION OF 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT...BUT A\r\nSHORTER-TERM MOTION SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE TURNED\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AS FORECAST.  THERE HAS BEEN A SOMEWHAT SIGNIFICANT\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE GFS HAS CONSISTENTLY SHOWN A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH A WIDER\r\nAND SHARPER RE-CURVATURE COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...THAT TREND\r\nIS EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED IN THE 12Z CYCLE.  IN ADDITION...THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS HAVE JOINED THE GFS IN THAT SOLUTION...AND EVEN THE\r\nECMWF NOW SHOWS A SHARPER TURN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE PERIOD AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...EVEN\r\nSHOWING A BRIEF WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 26.3N  52.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 26.2N  54.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 25.7N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 25.4N  59.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 25.5N  60.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 27.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 29.0N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 31.0N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":36,"Date":"2011-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 02 2011\r\n \r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN UNABLE TO\r\nSUSTAIN ITSELF IN THE FACE OF VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM\r\nTHE NORTH. PHILIPPE MAY BE SOMEWHAT RESILIENT IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR\r\nBECAUSE THE SHEAR IS CONFINED TO LEVELS ABOVE 300 MB INSTEAD OF\r\nEXTENDING THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nT- AND CI-NUMBERS AND RECENT ADT VALUES SUGGESTS THAT PHILIPPE IS\r\nMAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE\r\nHOSTILE SHEAR AFFECTING PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REACHING A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN\r\n48-72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR WEAKENS...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION\r\nEXPECTED IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...PERHAPS EVEN STRONGER THAN WHAT PHILIPPE IS EXPERIENCING\r\nNOW...SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3 BUT REMAINS A TAD\r\nBELOW IT AT LATER TIMES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION\r\nTHAT CONTINUES TO INDICATE DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS WHEN THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO DECREASE HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.\r\n\r\nRECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING. WHILE\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10...RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS KEEP PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD TO EVEN WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nPHILIPPE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTH OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. WHILE THE LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...DIFFERENCES\r\nARE SEEN IN THE SHARPNESS AND TIMING OF THE TURN. THESE DIFFERENCES\r\nARE LARGELY RELATED TO THE LATITUDE OF THE STORM WHEN IT FIRST\r\nENCOUNTERS THIS DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS...\r\nWHICH KEEP THE PHILIPPE FARTHER NORTH...FAVOR A QUICKER AND SHARPER\r\nTURN WHILE THE GFS AND REGIONAL MODELS...WHICH LIE FARTHER SOUTH\r\nINITIALLY...DELAY THE TURN AND ARE NOT AS SHARP. THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND GIVE THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY GROUP OF GUIDANCE GREATER WEIGHT GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN\r\nTHE OBSERVED MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 26.1N  53.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 25.9N  55.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 25.6N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 25.5N  60.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 26.1N  61.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 27.8N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 30.2N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 32.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":37,"Date":"2011-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011\r\n\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED\r\nNEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH HAS\r\nEXPANDED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT OVERPASS JUST\r\nAFTER 0000 UTC INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT. THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ALSO 45 KT...\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT ABOUT 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR IS\r\nCURRENTLY AFFECTING PHILIPPE. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR IS\r\nPRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RATHER THAN\r\nEXTENDING THROUGHOUT THE DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS COULD BE\r\nTHE REASON WHY PHILIPPE HAS NOT WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW DAYS DESPITE BEING IN ANALYZED SHEAR OF 30 KT OR HIGHER. \r\nNONETHELESS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN THE 36-72 HOUR\r\nTIME FRAME...AND THAT COULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL STORM TO STRENGTHEN. \r\nBEYOND A FEW DAYS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AND SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n\r\nPHILIPPE APPEARS TO NOW BE MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND\r\nTHE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10. THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE STORM\r\nREMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE THREE TO\r\nFIVE DAY TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW PATTERN...THERE REMAINS\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FOR PHILIPPE. THIS SPREAD\r\nIS IN PART DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE IN\r\nTHE MODELS. IN GENERAL...THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER AT\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nFOLLOWED SUIT. \r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 25.8N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 25.6N  56.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 25.5N  58.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 25.8N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 26.5N  61.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 28.3N  60.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 30.5N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 33.0N  52.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":38,"Date":"2011-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 03 2011\r\n \r\nSEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE.  ALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAD BEEN\r\nLOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE JUST\r\nRECEIVED A 1250 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT INDICATES THE CENTER MAY HAVE\r\nDIVED SOUTH...OR EVEN RE-FORMED...NEAR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  THE\r\nASCAT DATA ALSO INDICATES THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND EVEN\r\nSTRENGTHEN DESPITE THE HOSTILE CONDITIONS...THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nREASON TO DOUBT THAT IT WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO...AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  PHILIPPE IS THEN EXPECTED TO\r\nREACH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BY DAY 3...WHICH SHOULD FOSTER\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW TAKE\r\nPHILIPPE TO OR JUST UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT FOR NOW THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST STOPS JUST SHORT OF SHOWING THAT.  THE 00 UTC\r\nCYCLE OF THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE PHILIPPE IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THIS CONTINUES IN THE\r\n12 UTC CYCLE.\r\n \r\nWITH THE RE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE LONG-TERM 24-HOUR MOTION IS\r\n250 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE LOW-TO MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS STEERING\r\nPHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY AN EXPANDING\r\nCUT-OFF LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN SHARPLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3.  A NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD ACCELERATION\r\nIS INDICATED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES\r\nVERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 24.8N  55.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 25.0N  57.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 25.2N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 25.7N  60.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 26.5N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 28.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 30.5N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 32.5N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":39,"Date":"2011-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS TILTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT DUE TO CONTINUED\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T3.5...OR 55\r\nKT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 255 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE\r\nCURRENT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN TO VEER TO THE WEST\r\nAND WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE REACHES\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW\r\nNEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  RE-CURVATURE AHEAD OF THE LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED BY 48-72 HOURS...BUT THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM THE 12 UTC\r\nMODELS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND TRENDED SLOWER.  BASED ON THIS\r\nCHANGE...THE NEW FORECAST IS SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN SLOWED DOWN ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 36 HOURS OF BEING IN A HIGH-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED\r\nDURING THAT TIME.  BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENTER AN AREA\r\nOF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH COULD FAVOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  ALL\r\nOF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW THIS SCENARIO...AND THE STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHOWING PHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE AT THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP BY THAT TIME.  IT IS STILL A LITTLE DISCONCERTING THAT THE\r\n12 UTC CYCLE OF THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION OF PHILIPPE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BY 48 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IN THAT MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nLEFTOVER VORTEX COULD BE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDIFFLUENCE.  IF THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER AND\r\nFARTHER SOUTH...THEN THERE COULD BE A DELAY BEFORE IT IS NEGATIVELY\r\nAFFECTED BY THE DEVELOPING SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE\r\nALLOWS PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE AROUND DAY 4...BUT IT IS\r\nSTILL LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 24.6N  56.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 24.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 24.8N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 25.2N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 25.8N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 27.5N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 30.5N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":40,"Date":"2011-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 03 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ITS OWN. WHILE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nHAVE RECENTLY WARMED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING A FAIRLY STABLE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FOR SOME TIME. THE\r\nPERSISTENCE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nAFFECTING THE STORM HAS GRADUALLY WEAKENED. A LATE AFTERNOON\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN CLOUD MASS...WITH A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE\r\nIN THE TILT OF THE VORTEX SINCE EARLIER TODAY. OVERALL...THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND AN\r\nAVERAGE OF 0000 UTC DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS RESULTS IN HOLDING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 55 KT.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAD BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT\r\nLATEST FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION OF 240/10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO CONTINUE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD COURSE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...EQUATORWARD OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED\r\nNORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. BY 36 HOURS...THE\r\nRIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN AS A COMPLEX AND AMPLIFIED\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND SLOW BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nWESTERLIES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE BY 72 HOURS. THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST THIS CYCLE AND IS NOW\r\nFORECASTING A SHARPER RECURVATURE...WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD NOTED\r\nAT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE RECENT CENTER RE-LOCATION AND\r\nCONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY MODEL SOLUTIONS...GIVEN THEIR\r\nBETTER HANDLE ON THE BOTH THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT MOTION. AN\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS IS FOR PHILIPPE TO\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY AN ADVANCING FRONTAL TROUGH BETWEEN 72 AND 120\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER TRICKY. THE MODELS SUGGEST A\r\nFURTHER REDUCTION IN SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH A RELATIVE\r\nMINIMUM IN SHEAR OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 TO 72 HOURS. THIS MORE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE...AND PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nDURING THIS TIME PERIOD. AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD BEHIND\r\nA FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGING UPON PHILIPPE SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING...\r\nPERHAPS EVEN FASTER THAN INDICATED HERE. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NEAR THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS BELOW THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFORECAST OVER PHILIPPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 23.7N  57.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 23.5N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 23.9N  60.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 24.5N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 25.3N  61.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 28.7N  56.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 30.3N  52.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":41,"Date":"2011-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS A RARE CREATURE. IT HAS AN EYE FEATURE IN BOTH\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH\r\nCONVECTION FOR THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO INDICATE\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...THESE ESTIMATES YIELD TO LOWER WINDS\r\nTHAN EARLIER TODAY. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT\r\nPHILIPPE IS A HURRICANE. GIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. I WOULD LOVE TO\r\nHAVE A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE TO REALLY KNOW THE TRUE INTENSITY OF\r\nPHILIPPE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PHILIPPE TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS THE SHEAR\r\nRELAXES IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND BEFORE IT BECOMES ATTACHED\r\nTO THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGUIDANCE TREND AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...BUT\r\nTHIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAPPED SOUTH OF\r\nA STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE . IT APPEARS THAT IT HAS NOW BEGUN TO\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AS IT REACHING THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH ITS\r\nASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL FORCE PHILIPPE TO SHARPLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR\r\nRECURVE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  PHILIPPE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE COLD\r\nFRONT. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EACH\r\nOTHER BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHE SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THIS IS THE TREND INDICATED BY\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE PREVIOUS GFS RUNS\r\nHAVE PHILIPPE MEANDERING JUST SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 23.6N  58.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 23.5N  59.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 23.8N  61.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 24.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 26.0N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 27.5N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 29.0N  56.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 32.0N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":42,"Date":"2011-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A COUPLE MORE MICROWAVE IMAGES ARRIVED\r\nAND INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE REMAINED\r\nWELL ORGANIZED THROUGH 1000 UTC.  THE IMAGES REVEALED A LOW- AND\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  THIS DATA ALONG\r\nWITH DVORAK AND AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WAS\r\nPOSSIBLY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVERNIGHT.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY APPEARS SLIGHTLY LESS IMPRESSIVE\r\nWITH THE CENTER NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SMALL CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS.  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT.\r\n \r\nACCORDING TO A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS...PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER\r\nABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR.  AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE CLOSER TO A NARROW\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING AND MAKES PHILLIPE A HURRICANE IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  AFTER 48 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES ARE FORECAST TO IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE AND\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  PHILIPPE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH\r\nA FRONT WITHIN 4 OR 5 DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS PHILIPPE AS\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS NEARING\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC AND SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON.  THE\r\nLARGE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES SHOULD CAUSE PHILIPPE TO RECURVE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nAFTER THAT THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nIN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS HAS\r\nTRENDED FASTER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER GIVEN ITS TENACITY \r\nPHILIPPE IS MAINTAINED AS A CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 23.9N  59.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 24.0N  60.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 24.5N  61.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 25.4N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 26.5N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 28.5N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 31.0N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 36.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":43,"Date":"2011-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nHAVE FALLEN TO 45 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC SHOWED A FEW 50\r\nKT BARBS IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS THEREFORE HELD AT 55 KT.  \r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR WHICH\r\nHAS BEEN AFFECTING PHILIPPE FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS SHOULD ABATE IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE BUT SMALL REGION\r\nOF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nPHILIPPE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME.  STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE AFTER\r\n48 HOURS...YET FOR THE MOST PART THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW\r\nMUCH WEAKENING.  THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE LGEM...WHICH TENDS TO\r\nHANDLE SHEAR BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS AT THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nFOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...AND IT IS HIGHER THAN THE LGEM AT DAY 5\r\nDUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BAROCLINIC FORCING AS PHILIPPE\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  \r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...BUT THE LOW-CLOUD LINES SUGGEST TO ME THAT IT HAS\r\nEITHER JUMPED TO THE NORTH...OR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nBECOMING SOMEWHAT ELONGATED.  REGARDLESS...PHILIPPE HAS AN AVERAGED\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT AND IS ABOUT START ITS SHARP\r\nRE-CURVATURE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT LEAST FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS\r\nNOW...THE ECMWF IS ON THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nWHILE THE GFS IS FARTHER WEST AND NORTH.  THE ECMWF ALSO APPEARS TO\r\nDIFFER FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS BY HAVING PHILIPPE STAY FARTHER\r\nSOUTH AND BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS SHOW\r\nIT BECOMING THE MAIN THE PARENT CYCLONE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT IS THEN VERY SIMILAR ON DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE IDEA THAT PHILIPPE WILL BE MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ON DAY 5.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 24.1N  60.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 24.5N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 25.2N  61.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 26.3N  61.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 27.3N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 32.0N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 36.5N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":44,"Date":"2011-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2011\r\n\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF PHILIPPE HAS AGAIN CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION...WITH THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTING A MID-LEVEL EYE\r\nIS SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB...AND...BASED ON THIS AND\r\nTHE LACK OF CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n55 KT.  \r\n\r\nPHILIPPE HAS BEGUN ITS FORECAST NORTHWARD TURN WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION NOW 300/6.  THE CYCLONE IS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWING A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD RECURVE ON THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON THE\r\nMODEL FORECASTS OF THE EVENTUAL FATE OF PHILIPPE.  THE GFS...\r\nCANADIAN...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINING STRONG THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND FORECAST A\r\nNORTHWARD OR EVEN WEST OF NORTH MOTION BY 120 HOURS AS PHILIPPE\r\nMERGES WITH THE TROUGH.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MUCH WEAKER\r\nPHILIPPE MOVING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT EVENTUALLY\r\nABSORBS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO AND SHOWS PHILIPPE TURNING\r\nNORTHWARD BY 120 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWHILE PHILIPPE REMAINS UNDER NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...\r\nANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SUGGEST THE SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DECREASING.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A 36-48 HOUR WINDOW OF MORE FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS AS THE CYCLONE PASSES THROUGH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...AND\r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY FORECASTING\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE\r\nAGAIN...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION FORECAST TO START AT AROUND\r\n96 HOURS AND FINISH BY 120 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS FORECAST A HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM...SO IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT PHILIPPE COULD BE STRONGER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 24.6N  60.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 25.3N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 26.1N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 27.2N  60.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 28.4N  59.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 30.5N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 35.0N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 40.5N  45.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":45,"Date":"2011-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE CONTINUES TO HAVE A SHEARED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF A VERY RAGGED EYE\r\nOCCASIONALLY.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX HOURS\r\nAGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT.  MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT PHILIPPE WILL MOVE BENEATH AN UPPER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE AXIS LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF LOWER SHEAR\r\nLASTING FOR A DAY OR SO.  ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THAT PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THAT SOLUTION...ALBEIT ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSPECTRUM BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE DUE TO A LARGE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  USUALLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nWEAKENING WOULD BE CALLED FOR WITH SUCH STRONG SHEAR...BUT ONLY A\r\nMINOR DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DUE TO SIGNIFICANT\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY DAY\r\n4...AND IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE EVEN\r\nHAVE PHILIPPE EXTRATROPICAL NEAR DAY 3 IN THE LATEST RUNS...BUT I\r\nDID NOT WANT TO SHOW SUCH A LARGE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nSOME COARSE AMSU DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING AT\r\n300/5...ABOUT THE SAME AS PREVIOUS.  A RELATIVELY SHARP TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST IS LIKELY WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH\r\nSHOULD ALSO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO MOVE AT AN INCREASING PACE BY LATE\r\nTHURSDAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE STRONGER\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT IS A BIT FASTER TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL TRENDS.  THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION APPEARS TO BE A DIFFICULT ONE TO\r\nFORECAST...WITH THE MAIN DISAGREEMENT BEING WHETHER PHILIPPE WILL\r\nBECOME THE MAIN NON-TROPICAL LOW OR BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF PHILIPPE...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST WILL GO WITH THE ABSORBED SCENARIO.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 24.7N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 25.3N  61.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 26.5N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 27.8N  60.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 28.9N  58.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 31.5N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 38.0N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":46,"Date":"2011-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 05 2011\r\n \r\nPERSISTENT PHILIPPE CONTINUES AS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH\r\nVERY COLD CLOUD TOPS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ON THE DOWNSHEAR...OR\r\nSOUTHEAST...SIDE OF THE CENTER.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM  \r\n40 KT FROM AN 0839Z AMSU CIMSS ANALYSIS ON THE LOW END TO 55 KT\r\nFROM THE TAFB DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER ON THE HIGH END.  55\r\nKT IS RETAINED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY...THOUGH THIS COULD BE\r\nSLIGHTLY GENEROUS.  THE 34 KT WIND RADII WAS ADJUSTED OUTWARD SOME\r\nBASED UPON THE 0839Z AMSU CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS.\r\n\r\nA PAIR OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM FNMOC JUST BEFORE SYNOPTIC TIME\r\nALLOWS FOR A FAIRLY ACCURATE INITIAL POSITION.  BASED UPON THIS AND\r\nTHE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING THAT SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER\r\nIS JUST TUCKED IN UNDERNEATH THE OVERCAST...AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n310/5 IS ANALYZED.  THE CYCLONE IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND RECURVATURE SHOULD COMMENCE\r\nSHORTLY.  THE GLOBAL AND HURRICANE REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL TURN PHILIPPE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT\r\nPROGRAM MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO BECOME A HURRICANE. \r\nTHE WATER TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN A WARM 28C UNDER THE TRACK OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM\r\nHAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR BEFORE THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CAUSES THE SHEAR TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. \r\nADDITIONALLY...PHILIPPE IS SURROUNDED BY QUITE DRY AIR AS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THOUGH NOT MUCH OF THAT MAY\r\nACTUALLY BE REACHING THE CENTER OF THE STORM.  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE WITH LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nSHOWING LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SPINNING UP THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE HFIP IV15\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS AND THEN NEAREST TO THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nTHEREAFTER...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THAT INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNANIMOUS BY ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TO OCCUR BY 72 HOURS...WHICH IS WHEN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE TRANSITION.  AN 120 HOUR POINT IS\r\nINCLUDED HERE AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE PROMINENT EXCEPTION\r\nOF THE ECWMF WHICH KILLS OFF THE STORM AFTER 72 HOURS... CONTINUES\r\nPHILIPPE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST FIVE DAYS. \r\nTHE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER PROVIDED TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nAT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 25.3N  61.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 26.0N  61.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 27.0N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 28.2N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 29.3N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 34.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 40.5N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1200Z 46.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":47,"Date":"2011-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF PHILIPPE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY.  A 1753\r\nUTC TRMM OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...WITH SOME INCREASE\r\nIN BANDING EVIDENT IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...RECENT\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION FOR THE\r\nFIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.  HOWEVER...DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nSTILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AROUND 55 KT.  IT SEEMS THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY DECREASING AS PREDICTED AND\r\nPHILIPPE HAS A VERY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED AS STRONG\r\nWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IMPINGE UPON THE CYCLONE ON\r\nTHURSDAY.  AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER\r\nAND PHILIPPE WILL ALSO BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT OR JUST ABOVE THE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IS MUCH BELOW THE\r\nMORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS.  BY 72 HOURS...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS UNANIMOUSLY SHOW PHILIPPE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE HAS TURNED NORTHWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/5 KT.\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nACCELERATE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD \r\nAGREEMENT...HOWEVER THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 6 HOURS AGO \r\nIN MOVING THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  AS A RESULT...THE NEW TRACK SHOWS LESS NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 25.8N  61.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 26.6N  61.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 27.8N  59.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 28.8N  57.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 29.9N  55.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 35.0N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 41.5N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1800Z 45.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":48,"Date":"2011-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2011\r\n\r\nPHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION...WHILE AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT\r\nIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 65\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n55 KT.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY\r\nOF WISCONSIN SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO\r\nABOUT 10 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 010/6.  PHILIPPE IS RECURVING TO THE EAST\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION MAY\r\nOCCUR AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND\r\nMERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nWHILE PHILIPPE HAS NOT YET STRENGTHENED...THERE WILL BE A 12-24 HOUR\r\nPERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR BEFORE THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE\r\nSTRONGER WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH.  FOR THE MOST PART...THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL CALLS FOR PHILIPPE TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nDURING THAT TIME...AND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND BE\r\nCOMPLETE BY 72 HOURS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON PHILIPPE\r\nMAINTAINING GALE TO STORM INTENSITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...AND\r\nTHIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 26.4N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 27.4N  60.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 28.5N  58.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 29.3N  56.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 30.8N  53.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 37.0N  45.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 43.5N  41.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0000Z 52.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":49,"Date":"2011-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS WITH CONVECTION INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN.  MICROWAVE DATA FROM EARLIER ALSO\r\nSHOW THAT A LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...\r\nTHOUGH NOTHING RECENT HAS BEEN RECEIVED.  A BLEND OF THE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT. \r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH ONLY MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND WARM WATER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW PHILIPPE\r\nATTAINING HURRICANE STATUS LATER TODAY...WITH WEAKENING COMMENCING\r\nBY LATE TOMORROW DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nWILL LIKELY START IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND BE COMPLETE BY DAY 3.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/7.  PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER\r\nACCELERATE TODAY AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED\r\nSURFACE COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.   THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE GENERALLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH POORER\r\nAGREEMENT DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE RECEIVED FROM THE OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER IN THE LATER PERIODS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SLOWER\r\nFORECAST THAN PREVIOUS.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 26.8N  60.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 27.8N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 28.8N  58.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 29.7N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 31.2N  51.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 38.0N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 42.0N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0600Z 49.0N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":50,"Date":"2011-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER 49 PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...OVER TWELVE DAYS...PHILIPPE HAS\r\nFINALLY BECOME A HURRICANE.  A 1009Z SSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGE\r\nFROM FNMOC SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE...WHILE GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD COVER WITH AN\r\nEYE PERHAPS BECOMING VISIBLE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE AT 4.5 AND 4.0... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CIMSS\r\nADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE TWO.\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT AT ADVISORY TIME.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8\r\nKT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION\r\nOF PHILIPPE GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWHILE PHILIPPE HAS REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY...THIS PEAK WILL\r\nLIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED.  AS THE CYCLONE MOVES CLOSER TO THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINCREASE DRASTICALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SO WHILE THE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM UNDER THE TRACK OF PHILIPPE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SHEAR AND PERHAPS\r\nADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD\r\nTO GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS\r\nIS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...AS THE PURELY DYNAMICAL HURRICANE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE\r\nUNREALISTICALLY IMPERVIOUS TO THE MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THE HURRICANE.  AROUND 48\r\nHOURS...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS\r\nAROUND THE CYCLONE.  IT IS NOTED THAT THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE\r\nANALYSES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS\r\nEARLY AS TOMORROW...THOUGH THIS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO QUICK A\r\nTRANSITION.\r\n\r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON\r\nGUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 27.8N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 28.6N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 29.6N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 31.0N  53.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 33.4N  49.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 39.5N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 45.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1200Z 51.5N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":51,"Date":"2011-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AS\r\nAN EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED INSIDE A\r\nRELATIVELY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES GIVE A CURRENT-INTENSITY NUMBER OF\r\n4.5...OR ABOUT 77 KT.  A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE SUGGESTS 75 KT FROM A\r\n1649Z POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITE PASS. THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE INDICATE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER 82 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE\r\nGIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KT...WHICH MAY BE SOMEWHAT\r\nCONSERVATIVE. A 1228Z ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED THE WIND\r\nRADII ANALYSIS...EVEN SMALLER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS BEING STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 11 KT...\r\nPRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATION\r\nOF PHILIPPE IN THE SAME GENERAL DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nTHE MODELS INDICATE A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE\r\nOCCLUDES AROUND DAYS THREE AND FOUR BEFORE ACCELERATING A FINAL\r\nTIME IN THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AROUND DAY FIVE.  THE TRACK\r\nPREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO BOTH THE CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE SHARP GRADIENT OF INFRARED CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF PHILIPPE MAY BE INDICATIVE OF THE EXPECTED\r\nINCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR.  EVEN THOUGH PHILIPPE WILL BE PASSING\r\nOVER A SUFFICIENTLY WARM SEA SURFACE TO SUSTAIN A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF FROM THEIR\r\nEARLIER INSISTENCE OF CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION.  THE FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AROUND 36 TO 48 HOURS...EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS BASED PRIMARILY ON\r\nGUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 28.7N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 29.5N  57.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 30.4N  55.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 31.9N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 35.3N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 40.5N  44.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 45.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1800Z 54.0N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":52,"Date":"2011-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF PHILIPPE HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. IN RECENT HOURS...THERE HAVE BEEN\r\nOCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT WITHIN A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nWERE T4.5 AT 0000 UTC AND THE LATEST 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE WAS\r\n4.8.  USING THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 80 KT.\r\nPHILIPPE APPEARS TO BE NEAR PEAK INTENSITY. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS PHILIPPE ENCOUNTERS\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG ITS PATH. AFTER 36 HOURS...PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CROSS THE 26C-ISOTHERM AND RECEIVE A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF THESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT\r\nTHE TRANSITION PROCESS SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY ABOUT 48 HOURS. POST-\r\nTROPICAL PHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nGALE/STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OUT TO ABOUT 5 DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW ESTIMATED TO BE 050/10.  THE APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD GIVE THE\r\nCYCLONE A KICK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. \r\nAFTER PHILIPPE MERGES WITH THE TROUGH AND BECOMES AN OCCLUDED\r\nCYCLONE...THE TRACK IS FORECAST TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAND BRIEFLY DECELERATE OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED USING A JUST-RECEIVED 0042 UTC ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 29.1N  58.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 29.9N  56.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 31.1N  53.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 33.7N  49.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 37.3N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 42.0N  43.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 47.9N  38.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0000Z 58.0N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":53,"Date":"2011-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nDECREASED SOME...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY\r\nMUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS STILL AN EYE ON\r\nMICROWAVE DATA. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN NEAR\r\n4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM CIMSS ARE\r\nA LITTLE BIT HIGHER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KNOTS.\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. \r\nPHILIPPE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM AND\r\nBECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 48 HOURS OR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST OR 065 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND AS THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM APPROACHES...PHILLIPE SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS PHILIPPE BECOMES\r\nAN OCCLUDED CYCLONE OR BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER CYCLONE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE FORECAST DURING THE POST-\r\nTROPICAL STAGE OF PHILIPPE WAS PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 29.6N  56.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 30.5N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 32.5N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 36.0N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 40.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 44.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 51.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0600Z 61.0N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Philippe","Adv":54,"Date":"2011-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n\r\nSSM/IS MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EYEWALL OF PHILIPPE HAS\r\nBEGUN TO DETERIORATE...LIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR AND\r\nDECREASING SSTS WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE STORM.  ALSO...RECENT\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO\r\nBECOME SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THESE CHANGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE IS STARTING TO WEAKEN...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 75 KT.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...PHILIPPE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM AT HIGH LATITUDES.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE IS MAINTAINING A FORWARD MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 14 KT.\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS\r\nANTICIPATED AS PHILIPPE INTERACTS WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. \r\nTHE FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THE CYCLONE FOLLOWS\r\nGUIDANCE FROM THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 29.9N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 31.1N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 33.7N  49.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 37.0N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 41.0N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 47.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 55.0N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":55,"Date":"2011-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF PHILIPPE HAS DETERIORATED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE\r\nDAY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW COMPLETELY EXPOSED.\r\nPRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW SHEARED TO THE EAST\r\nAND NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB HAVE DECREASED. ADDITIONALLY...A NOAA DRIFTER BUOY 41558\r\nRECENTLY PASSED VERY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND REPORTED A\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE OF 989 MB...WHICH ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING IS\r\nOCCURRING. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED\r\nTO 60 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED BASED ON THE\r\nRECENT RAPID DECLINE OF PHILIPPE. HOWEVER THE GENERAL REASONING FOR\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO AS PHILIPPE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS. THE STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN A DAY OR TWO AS IT\r\nCONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY...AND THE ESTIMATED\r\nFORWARD MOTION IS 070/11 KT.  DESPITE THE SLOWING...AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS STILL EXPECTED AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE REMNANTS OF\r\nPHILIPPE ARE FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE HIGH-LATITUDE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII\r\nFOR THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE OF THIS SYSTEM FOLLOW GUIDANCE PROVIDED\r\nBY THE NCEP OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 30.1N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 31.5N  51.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 35.0N  47.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 39.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 42.5N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 49.5N  35.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 58.0N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":56,"Date":"2011-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n \r\nPHILIPPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40\r\nKT...HAS CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO BE EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF A PERSISTENT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CI- AND T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 60\r\nKT. CONTINUED HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...DRIER AIR ENTRAINING INTO\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM TO WEAKEN ON SATURDAY. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS WHEN IT MERGES WITH\r\nA COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING\r\nABSORBED INTO A MUCH LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AND THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/14. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nWITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHARPENS AS IT APPROACHES PHILIPPE. AFTER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nGUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. THE 34-KT AND\r\n50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON A 0022 UTC ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 30.7N  52.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 32.7N  49.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 36.6N  45.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 40.1N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 43.0N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 50.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 58.0N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":57,"Date":"2011-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nAN AMSU-B PASS AT 0509 UTC AND ANOTHER ONE AT 0618 UTC CONFIRMED\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS EXPOSED AND LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. OTHERWISE...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH EXCEPT THAT IT IS BECOMING\r\nMORE ELONGATED AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION\r\nOF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS. THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE WAS KEPT AT 989 MB BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF 990\r\nMB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY NEAR THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THAT PHILIPPE WILL INTERACT WITH OR BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THERE IS A GOOD\r\nCHANCE THAT PHILIPPE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070 DEGREES AT 21 KNOTS. AS THE STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nPORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 31.1N  50.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 33.5N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 37.5N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 41.0N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 44.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 58.0N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Philippe","Adv":58,"Date":"2011-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  58\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES AND REPORTS FROM DRIFTING BUOY 41575\r\nINDICATE THE CENTER OF PHILIPPE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY POSITION. OTHERWISE...THE CYCLONE IS ON TRACK AND IS\r\nACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/25 KT. THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.\r\nPHILIPPE IS EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A\r\nSHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS FROM\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE FLOW AHEAD \r\nOF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND BACK AROUND TO A\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE\r\nPHILIPPE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER COLD WATERS THAT LIE JUST NORTH\r\nOF 37N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN\r\nAND TVCA.\r\n\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 40 KT...COUPLED WITH\r\nSSTS BELOW 24C...IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nBETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. PHILIPPE COULD ALSO MERGE WITH AN\r\nAPPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING THAT SAME TIME PERIOD. THE BOTTOM\r\nLINE IS THAT PHILIPPE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND BE FULLY POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS OVER\r\nTHE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE NOAA OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN\r\nPREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 33.2N  47.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 35.7N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 39.1N  42.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 42.5N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 46.3N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 54.0N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 59.0N  18.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Philippe","Adv":60,"Date":"2011-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL172011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  60\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PHILIPPE HAS MERGED WITH A FRONTAL\r\nBOUNDARY...AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT...ALTHOUGH THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE WAS ADJUSTED LOWER BASED ON A 987.5 MB REPORT FROM\r\nDRIFTING BUOY 44878 ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY DAY 4. THE STORM IS\r\nMOVING RAPIDLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS\r\nSYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nPHILIPPE. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 38.4N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 40.2N  42.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 43.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 46.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 51.0N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 59.0N  25.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n500 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nOVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE HAS ACQUIRED JUST\r\nENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...\r\nBASED ON A FEW BELIEVABLE 27 TO 28 KT SFMR WIND MEASUREMENTS.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER BUT IN AN AREA OF MODERATE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WITH DRY AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST.\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOT FORECAST TO\r\nBE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...BUT SHOULD NOT BE\r\nHOSTILE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM BECOMING A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE\r\nSTATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 335/5.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST INCREASES GREATLY IN THE 3\r\nTO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM\r\nINLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IN A FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE\r\nHWRF...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE ABOVEMENTIONED\r\nRIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 15.9N  81.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 16.4N  82.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 16.8N  82.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 17.0N  83.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 17.1N  84.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 17.3N  86.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 17.7N  87.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 19.0N  88.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011\r\n \r\nEARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATED BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 33-35 KT OUTSIDE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THESE\r\nWINDS COULD HAVE BEEN GUSTS. THE AIRCRAFT ALSO HAD TO AVOID STRONG\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER AND WAS... THEREFORE...\r\nUNABLE TO SAMPLE THE WINDS IN THAT AREA. SINCE THEN... HOWEVER...\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nAND CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...\r\nWHICH IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE STRONGER WINDS IN THAT\r\nREGION AS REPORTED PREVIOUSLY. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN\r\nSTEADILY INCREASING...AND THE MOST RECENT 2-HOUR AVERAGE IS T2.7/39\r\nKT. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM RINA...THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON.\r\n \r\nRINA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS OF NEAR 30C FOR THE NEXT 72-96\r\nHOURS. IN ADDITION...DURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SOME VERY HIGH UPPER-OCEAN CONTENT THAT\r\nIS MORE THAN 10 TIMES THE VALUE THE STORM IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING.\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO IMPROVE EVEN MORE THROUGH 72 HOURS AS RINA MOVES UNDER\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT WILL PRODUCE OUTFLOW CHANNELS TO THE\r\nNORTH AND SOUTH. SO THERE IS PLENTY OF HEAT AND VENTILATION\r\nAVAILABLE FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE ONLY POSSIBLE INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR IS VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO AND YUCATAN CHANNEL...WHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE\r\nCYCLONE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL...LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/7 KT BASED ON RECON FIXES. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK DEPENDS HEAVILY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. SINCE THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS MUCH MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT THE\r\nGFS...NOGAPS...CANADIAN...AND GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THOSE MODEL SOLUTIONS OF A WESTWARD OR\r\nEVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FROM THE CURRENT POSITION HAVE BEEN\r\nDISCOUNTED. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND UKMET MODELS ARE FORECASTING\r\nA STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nWHICH LOOKS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TRENDS IN SATELLITE\r\nAND UPPER-AIR DATA. AS A RESULT...THE EXPECTED FORECAST SCENARIO\r\nCALLS FOR RINA TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AS A VIGOROUS\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PASSES EAST OF FLORIDA TOMORROW...THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF RINA...FORCING THE CYCLONE ON\r\nA SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DAY 4. AFTER THAT...ANOTHER\r\nSTRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE\r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN AND ALLOW RINA TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nLIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS..AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE UKMET...HWRF...AND ECMWF\r\nMODEL TRACKS.\r\n \r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT\r\nTHREATS FOR NORTHERN HONDURAS WHERE 8-15 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE\r\nALREADY FALLEN DURING THE PAST 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 16.4N  82.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 16.8N  82.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 17.3N  83.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 17.5N  84.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 17.7N  85.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 17.9N  86.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 18.9N  87.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 20.0N  87.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n500 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF RINA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nJUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION WITH A COUPLE OF\r\nADJACENT SMALLER CLUSTERS...BUT NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS.\r\nVERY LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT\r\n35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS. RINA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL BUT IS EXHIBITING FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A SLIGHT LESSENING\r\nOF THE SHEAR COULD OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOTAL\r\nPRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE AND RADIOSONDE DATA\r\nSHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR MASS EXISTS\r\nJUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STORM. GIVEN THESE MARGINALLY\r\nCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE AND BELOW THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nUSING A COMBINATION OF CENTER FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/5.  A 500 MB SHORT\r\nWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PASSING TO THE NORTH AND WILL SOON BYPASS\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA...A WEAK\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF RINA.  THIS STEERING\r\nPATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST...BUT AT A\r\nVERY SLOW RATE OF FORWARD SPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD A STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWARD TURN.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH\r\nARE WELL TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE GFDL AND HWRF.  THESE LATTER\r\nMODELS ARE PREDICTING RINA TO BECOME A STRONG HURRICANE THAT WOULD\r\nRESPOND TO THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF. \r\nGIVEN THE PREDICTED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SUCH A SCENARIO SEEMS\r\nUNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 16.7N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 17.0N  82.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 17.4N  83.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 17.5N  84.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 17.6N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 18.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 19.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 20.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT RINA HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED WELL WITHIN THE LARGE AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS...\r\nAND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORT INCREASING THE \r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED TO 40 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nSHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF RINA. \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nAN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND VERY WARM\r\nWATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL\r\nBOUNDARY.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME WEAKENING OF\r\nRINA BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UPDATED NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN\r\nTHE STATISTICAL SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nGFDL/HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nRECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT RINA\r\nIS BEGINNING ITS TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 320/5.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  AS THIS RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...IT SHOULD ALLOW RINA TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD.\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RINA IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE RETREATS AND A BROAD TROUGH MOVES OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHIFTING SOUTHWARD\r\nAND KEEPING RINA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY THROUGH 96 HOURS...BUT NOW SHOWS A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH\r\nTHE TVCA AND HFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 17.1N  82.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 17.4N  83.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 17.6N  84.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 17.8N  84.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 18.1N  85.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 19.2N  87.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 20.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 21.0N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-10-24 18:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n200 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND\r\nBELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS AROUND 65 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING RINA THE 6TH\r\nHURRICANE OF SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY\r\nHAS BEEN ISSUED TO INCREASE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK WAS\r\nREQUIRED.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1800Z 17.1N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 17.4N  83.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 17.6N  84.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 17.8N  84.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 18.1N  85.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 19.2N  87.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 20.5N  87.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 21.0N  86.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF RINA AND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST FEATURE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS NOT REPORTED\r\nANY STRONGER WINDS SINCE THEIR INITIAL PASS INTO THE CENTER JUST\r\nBEFORE 1800 UTC...AND BASED ON THE EARLIER DATA THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 65 KT. \r\n \r\nRINA WILL BE TRAVERSING VERY WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY NEGATIVE\r\nFACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. SO FAR...RINA HAS REMAINED WELL INSULATED FROM THE\r\nDRY AIR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT\r\nREACH THE CORE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RINA IS ALSO EXPECTED\r\nTO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT MOVES INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE ISSUED IN THE\r\nSPECIAL ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE GFDL AND HWRF GUIDANCE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL\r\nAND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE RAPID CHANGES\r\nBOTH UP AND DOWN IN ITS INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED DOWN.  A\r\nBUILDING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STEER RINA WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nAS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nTAKING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE GFS SHOWING AN\r\nEASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST\r\nREMAINS BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nMOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...AND THE POOR RUN\r\nTO RUN CONSISTENCY...THERE IS MUCH LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST OF RINA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 17.1N  83.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 17.2N  83.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 17.3N  84.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 17.6N  85.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 18.1N  86.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 19.8N  87.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 21.0N  87.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 21.5N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-10-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2011\r\n \r\nRINA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nNEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nWITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN -70C. A 0137 UTC\r\nSSMIS OVERPASS ALSO SHOWED A CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE IN THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nOUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW NOTED ELSEWHERE.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE LATEST\r\nADT VALUE IS 4.3/73 KT. BASED UPON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.\r\n \r\nRINA IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS IT TRAVERSES THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA\r\nIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS\r\nFORECAST IS THAT DRY AIR LURKING IN THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT\r\nCOULD POTENTIALLY BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BEYOND 60 HOURS...THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS\r\nFAVORABLE AS RINA ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nADDITIONAL DRY AIR IMPINGES ON THE CIRCULATION. THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nALSO INTERACT WITH LAND AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA IN 72-96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AFTER THIS TIME. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO FORECAST RINA TO\r\nDISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME...WHILE THE GFS/UKMET GLOBAL\r\nMODELS IMPLY MORE WEAKENING THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA\r\nHAS MOVED LITTLE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/03. LITTLE\r\nCHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT RINA WILL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-72 HOURS ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nCARIBBEAN. AFTER THIS TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE. THE HWRF/GFDL/UKMET ACCELERATE RINA NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER OR NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...WHEREAS THE GFS TURNS THE CYCLONE\r\nSOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. THE MODEL SPREAD IS IN PART\r\nRELATED TO THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH OF RINA. A STRONGER\r\nCYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL/HWRF...WOULD LIKELY BE STEERED\r\nBY THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHILE A WEAKER/SHALLOWER\r\nSYSTEM WOULD BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD IN LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW. SINCE\r\nRINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...PERHAPS MORE SIGNIFICANTLY THAN\r\nFORECAST...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE WEAKER GFS\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED\r\nRANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 17.2N  83.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 17.3N  83.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 17.5N  84.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.9N  85.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 18.7N  86.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 20.9N  87.2W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 22.2N  85.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-10-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011\r\n \r\nRINA IS MAINTAINING A RATHER SYMMETRICAL CDO FEATURE WITH THE CENTER\r\nLOCATED ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A MASS OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...BUT\r\nAN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE\r\nEARLY THIS MORNING.  THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED SFMR WIND SPEED MEASURED\r\nBY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 84 KT...THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 89\r\nKT...AND A GPS DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL\r\nSUPPORTED A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF AT LEAST 82 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS MORE EFFECTIVE THAN USUAL IN\r\nTRANSPORTING STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 85 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  RINA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...\r\nPARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nTRAVERSE WATERS OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY UNTIL INCREASING\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HALTS THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS...WHICH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ALBEIT A\r\nLITTLE LOWER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS RINA\r\nDISSIPATING OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY\r\nSLOWLY OR ABOUT 290/3.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE WEAK\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF RINA WILL\r\nESSENTIALLY DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL\r\nMOVE OVER THE U.S. EAST COAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE\r\nTO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  BY\r\nDAYS 4-5 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD...BUT SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO FULLY RESPOND TO\r\nTHE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR ONLY A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST AS WELL AS TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  CONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nRINA AS A HURRICANE AND SHOWS A MUCH FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER\r\nSINCE THIS IS NOW THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL SHOWING SUCH BEHAVIOR...\r\nIT IS AN OUTLIER THAT IS BEING DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED\r\nRANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREMAINS LOW.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 17.3N  83.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 17.4N  84.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 17.8N  85.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 18.3N  86.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 19.3N  86.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 21.5N  87.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 22.5N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 22.5N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-10-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RINA CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...WITH A\r\nSMALL EYE SEEN IN AN 1128 UTC SSMIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY BASED 12Z DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS SITUATED OVER A REGION OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT\r\nAND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED...ESPECIALLY TO THE\r\nNORTH. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING TO MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS LIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE CYCLONE EXPERIENCES INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD\r\nTHE LATEST RUN OF THE LGEM MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/03...AS RINA CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE\r\nINTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...AND A RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THIS EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN RINA TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AS IT APPROACHES\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 48 HOURS...WITH THE NHC TRACK\r\nLYING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...LITTLE\r\nCHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSEST TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE\r\nEXTENDED RANGE...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REMAINS LOW.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE FASTER TRACK FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS ARE NOW REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 17.4N  83.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 17.7N  84.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 18.2N  85.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 19.1N  86.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 20.2N  87.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 22.0N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N  84.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 22.5N  83.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-10-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n500 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RINA\r\nHAS INTENSIFIED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 95 KT BASED ON A PEAK SFMR WIND OF 94 KT AND\r\n700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 106 KT. THE LATEST CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE MEASURED FROM THE PLANE WAS 970 MB...FALLING A LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A REGION OF LOW WIND SHEAR.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK AT 100 KT FROM 12 TO 48\r\nHOURS...A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...RINA WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...FOLLOWING THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM. HOWEVER...IF RINA MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA THAN EXPECTED...IT COULD BE WEAKER THAN FORECAST\r\nIN 2 OR 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS JOGGED TOWARD THE LEFT OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 270/04. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED IN THE SHORT TERM...AS RINA\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THE CYCLONE PASSES BY\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD DEVELOPS IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE CLOSELY LINKED LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD. ON ONE EXTREME...THE ECMWF WEAKENS RINA AND\r\nDISSIPATES IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AFTER 72 HOURS...\r\nWHILE THE GFS AND HWRF TAKE A STRONGER CYCLONE QUICKLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AHEAD OF A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. MUCH OF THE REST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS...BUT THE OVERALL\r\nTREND IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT A SLOW MOTION IS SHOWN AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. NEEDLESS TO\r\nSAY...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREMAINS VERY LOW.\r\n \r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 17.4N  84.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 17.5N  85.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 18.3N  86.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 19.4N  86.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 20.8N  86.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 22.5N  86.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 23.5N  84.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 23.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-10-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 25 2011\r\n \r\nTHE EYE BECAME OBSCURED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE\r\nBIT. HOWEVER...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE\r\nWHICH IS BETTER DEFINED THAN IN EARLIER DATA. A NOAA HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE MEASURED A LOWER MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 966 MB...BUT NEITHER SFMR OR FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nINDICATE THAT RINA IS STRONGER THAN A FEW HOURS AGO. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE\r\nLOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE VERY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT\r\nPREVAILING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...RINA COULD\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT ANY TIME BEFORE REACHING EASTERN\r\nYUCATAN. THEREAFTER...RINA WILL FIND A VERY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nSTRONG SHEAR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH MOST\r\nLIKELY WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\n \r\nRINA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 3 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. BUT SOON...THE HIGH WILL\r\nSHIFT EASTWARD...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE...STILL VERY\r\nSLOWLY...TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA AND BE VERY NEAR NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN IN 48 HOURS. THERE IS\r\nRELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST SINCE\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT WITH THIS MOTION.\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS...AS RINA BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLY FLOW...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. BY THEN...RINA EITHER RECURVES\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR MEANDERS NEAR YUCATAN AS A\r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR RECURVATURE AND BRINGS A WEAKENING RINA NEAR THE NORTH\r\nCOAST OF WESTERN CUBA. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 17.5N  84.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.9N  85.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 19.0N  86.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.2N  86.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 21.3N  86.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 23.0N  85.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 23.5N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 23.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-10-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n400 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE EYE CONTINUES TO BE OBSCURED ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE MEASURED PEAK\r\n700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 104 KT AND MAXIMUM BELIEVABLE\r\nSFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 90 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS HELD AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nCONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...\r\nAND ANALYSES FROM UW/CIMSS SUGGEST THAT STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS\r\nNOT YET REACHED THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.  THEREFORE...RINA STILL\r\nHAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...HOWEVER...THAT\r\nTHE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT BELOW THE CYCLONE SHOULD DIMINISH FROM\r\nTHIS POINT ONWARD...WHICH COULD BE A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nRINA INTENSIFYING TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS LATER TODAY.  SOME DECREASE\r\nIN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DUE TO THE INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  BY DAYS 2-3...WHEN RINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER SHEAR\r\nDUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NUMERICAL\r\nCONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT RINA CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE VERY SLOWLY...OR 280/4.  AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nMODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO FOR THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 3 TO 4 DAYS...A LARGE\r\n500 MB TROUGH MOVES TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...RESULTING IN A\r\nSTRENGTHENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  IF RINA WERE TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY BEYOND DAY 3 OR SO...AND THEREFORE REMAIN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nVORTEX...IT WOULD LIKELY ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  HOWEVER\r\nTHE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IN THAT TIME FRAME.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS ONLY A SLOW EASTWARD\r\nMOTION NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST GFS TRACK.  IT IS WORTH REPEATING THAT THERE IS GREAT\r\nUNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE RINA WILL BE LOCATED BY THE WEEKEND.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 17.5N  85.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 18.2N  85.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 19.2N  86.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 20.5N  87.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 21.8N  86.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 23.5N  84.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 23.5N  83.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 23.5N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-10-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1000 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2011\r\n\r\nRINA HAS A SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE THIS MORNING.  THE EYE IS NOT\r\nAPPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM THE RADARS AT BELIZE\r\nCITY AND ON THE TRMM SATELLITE SUGGEST THE EYEWALL HAS LOST SOME\r\nDEFINITION.  WHILE THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER\r\nTHAN -80C...THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE OUTFLOW HAS DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST 15-20 KT\r\nOF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS AND IT IS\r\nQUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT TO\r\nREACH THE STORM WILL FIND RINA HAS WEAKENED.\r\n \r\nTHE RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT RINA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE\r\nRIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW\r\n290/4.  RINA IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A\r\nSTRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE RIDGES TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO WEAKEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES AND ASSOCIATED\r\nCOLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD\r\nCAUSE RINA TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nPART OF THE FORECAST...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nOLD ONE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...RINA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN\r\nENVIRONMENT WHERE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT\r\nSOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO SHEAR\r\nAPART...BUT THE MODELS DISAGREE ON WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN AND THUS\r\nARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE ECMWF AND\r\nCANADIAN WEAKEN RINA VERY QUICKLY AND KEEP THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT\r\nNEAR YUCATAN...WHILE THE GFDL FORECASTS A STRONGER CYCLONE TO CROSS\r\nSOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE OTHER MODELS ARE BETWEEN\r\nTHESE EXTREMES.  THE LATTER PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE OUTFLOW IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 24 HOURS AGO AND THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...IT APPEARS THAT RINA HAS RUN OUT\r\nOF TIME TO INTENSIFY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE\r\nHURRICANE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH A\r\nFASTER WEAKENING AT 36-48 HOURS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.  DUE TO\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY OF JUST HOW QUICKLY RINA WILL SHEAR APART OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...THE FORECAST KEEPS RINA A HURRICANE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 120 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 17.9N  85.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 18.5N  86.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 19.5N  87.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 20.8N  87.1W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 22.0N  87.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 23.0N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.5N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 23.5N  82.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-10-26 17:30:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1230 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011\r\n\r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING RINA REPORTED THAT\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 982 MB...WITH FLIGHT-LEVEL AND\r\nSFMR WINDS THAT...AT THE MOST...SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75\r\nKT.  THUS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN PLACE OF THE\r\nREGULARLY SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THERE ARE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS WIND RADII FORECAST AND NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1730Z 18.1N  85.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 18.5N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 19.5N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 20.8N  87.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 22.0N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 23.0N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.5N  83.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 23.5N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-10-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n400 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM THE BELIZE CITY RADAR...AND\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST\r\nTHAT RINA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT HAS REPORTED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 79 KT AND\r\nSFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 75-78 KT...WHILE AN EYEWALL\r\nDROPSONDE SUGGESTS SURFACE WINDS NEAR 70 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 75 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DATA. THE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nSUGGEST THE VORTEX IS TILTED WITH HEIGHT...AS DROPSONDES AT THE\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL CENTER HAVE CONSISTENTLY REPORTED 25-30 KT SURFACE\r\nWINDS.  THIS TILT IS LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR DEPICTED IN ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN.\r\n \r\nRITA HAS CONTINUED ITS SLOW RIGHT TURN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 310/5.  THE FORECAST TRACK AND PHILOSOPHY ARE UNCHANGED FOR THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS...WITH THE HURRICANE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES\r\nVERY PROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF HOW RINA\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND HOW LONG IT HOLDS TOGETHER\r\nVERTICALLY.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE\r\nSYSTEM TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER FLORIDA OR THE FLORIDA\r\nSTRAITS INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...UKMET...AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS NOW FORECAST RINA OR ITS REMNANTS TO MAKE A HAIRPIN\r\nTURN AND MOVE SOUTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN.  THE\r\nGFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND HWRF MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES...FORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS THESE MODELS AND IS THUS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK.  THIS LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRINA IS FORECAST TO BE IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS.  THIS...COMBINED WITH EXPECTED LAND INTERACTION...\r\nSUGGESTS IT SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR AS THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW TRIES TO STEER IT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE RINA TO WEAKEN IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY SHOWN...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS\r\nMODEL.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM COULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n120 HOURS OR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 18.2N  85.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 18.7N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 20.0N  86.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 21.4N  86.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 22.5N  86.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 23.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 22.5N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  31/1800Z 22.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-10-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1000 PM CDT WED OCT 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED\r\nOFF TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NOT DISCERNIBLE IN IR IMAGES...IT\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. IN\r\nFACT...THE EYE FEATURE IS NOW QUITE DISTINCT IN VERY RECENT SSMIS\r\nDATA. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WHICH\r\nJUST TRAVERSED THE HURRICANE AND OBSERVED A CIRCULAR EYE OF 15 N MI\r\nIN DIAMETER. ALTHOUGH THERE WAS A PEAK WIND OF 82 KNOTS MEASURED BY\r\nTHE SFMR...MOST OF THE WIND REPORTS YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n75 KNOTS. MORE RECENT DATA SUGGEST THAT RITA COULD BE A LITTLE BIT\r\nSTRONGER. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN\r\nRINA SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AS RINA\r\nAPPROACHES THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE ENVIRONMENT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME VERY HOSTILE...AND A FASTER WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nOCCUR...PROBABLY MORE THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRINA HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nAND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CONSISTENT IN MOVING RINA SLOWLY NORTHWARD\r\nVERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO\r\n48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MODEL TREND IS TO KEEP RINA OR WHATEVER\r\nIS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE MEANDERING BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND YUCATAN.\r\nTHERE ARE NO LONGER ANY RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT ACCELERATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE EASTWARD. LITTLE BY LITTLE...MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nCONVERGING ON THE SOLUTION GIVEN A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO BY THE\r\nECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING RINA MEANDERING NEAR\r\nYUCATAN. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE\r\nMODEL TREND...I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO ADJUST THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nA LITTLE BIT WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND KEEP RINA BASICALLY\r\nNEARLY STATIONARY OVER EXTREME WESTERN CUBA. BY THEN...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 18.5N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 19.2N  86.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 20.4N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 21.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 22.0N  86.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 22.5N  85.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 22.0N  84.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rina","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n400 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011\r\n \r\nRINA HAS BECOME LESS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EXTENT OF COLD CLOUD TOPS DIMINISHING\r\nWITHIN A RAGGED-LOOKING CDO FEATURE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME\r\nWEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND INDEED THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOW BARELY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nWITH THE PEAK SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 62 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 65 KT.  SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER RINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...\r\nAND THIS ALONG WITH THE INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND\r\nDRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS MORE WEAKENING THEN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE FOR DAYS 1-3 AND IS THE SAME AT DAYS 4-5.  THIS IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRINA IS MOVING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nAREA AT ABOUT 325/5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON\r\nA NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN 36-48 HOURS...THE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO END AS WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nDEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF RINA.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY\r\nLOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT PUSHES\r\nTHROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT NEARLY\r\nAS MUCH AS SHOWN BY THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 18.8N  86.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 19.8N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 21.0N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 21.6N  86.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 21.9N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 22.0N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 21.5N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 21.0N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1000 AM CDT THU OCT 27 2011\r\n \r\nA COMBINATION OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT APPEARS TO HAVE DISRUPTED THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF RINA.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND RADAR DATA\r\nFROM BELIZE CITY AND CANCUN SHOWS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING IN THE\r\nCONVECTION. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nSTORM IS REPORTING FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND\r\nSURFACE WIND ESTIMATES FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE\r\nRADIOMETER NEAR 60 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...RINA IS DOWNGRADED TO\r\nA 60 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nAFTER WOBBLING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD...RINA APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nRESUMED ITS RIGHT TURN WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 330/5.  RINA\r\nSHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMBINATION OF RINA\r\nWEAKENING TO A SHALLOW VORTEX AND RISING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO TURN SOUTHWARD.  WHILE THERE ARE\r\nDIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RINA OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS WILL MEANDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SHARPER TURN AND A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTHWARD\r\nMOTION THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IN DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...IT DOES NOT SHOW AS FAST OF A SOUTHWARD MOTION\r\nAS MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO\r\nPERSIST NEAR OR OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS OR SO.  THIS...\r\nALONG WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE...SHOULD\r\nCAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nFASTER WEAKENING THAN PREVIOUS...WITH RINA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n120 HOURS.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS HOSTILE AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nRELATIVELY SMALL...THIS DEGENERATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN\r\nFORECAST...ESPECIALLY IF THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 19.2N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 20.0N  87.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 21.1N  87.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.6N  86.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 21.4N  86.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 21.0N  86.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 20.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 19.0N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n400 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT RINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.\r\nTHE PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST HAS DISSIPATED...AND\r\nTHERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE AIRCRAFT\r\nHAS REPORTED MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 58 KT AND SURFACE\r\nWIND ESTIMATES OF 48 KT FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE\r\nRADIOMETER.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 350/6.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12-24 HOURS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT A COMBINATION OF RINA WEAKENING TO A SHALLOW\r\nVORTEX AND RISING LOW-LEVEL PRESSURES TO ITS NORTHWEST SHOULD CAUSE\r\nRINA TO TURN SOUTHWARD.  WHILE THERE REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nDETAILS...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RINA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL\r\nMEANDER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS\r\nFOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 48\r\nHOURS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY FASTER SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OLD FORECAST.  WHILE THIS TRACK IS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE SOUTHWARD\r\nMOTION IS SLOWER THAN THAT OF MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO\r\nPERSIST NEAR OR OVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  THIS...\r\nALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING INTO THE\r\nCYCLONE...SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING.  BASED ON THIS AND THE\r\nCURRENT TRENDS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RINA TO MEET\r\nAN EARLIER DEMISE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 48 HOURS AND TO\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AFTER 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES OF THE STRUCTURE AND LOCATION OF THE REMNANTS OF RINA\r\nTHE FORECAST OF REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 19.8N  87.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 20.6N  87.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 21.3N  87.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 21.2N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 20.9N  86.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 20.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 18.5N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z 17.0N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1000 PM CDT THU OCT 27 2011\r\n \r\nRINA HAS BECOME A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH MOST OF THE STRONG\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nDETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY A FEW HOURS AGO...AND I WAS TEMPTED TO\r\nLOWER THE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nCHECKING THE CYCLONE MEASURED SEVERAL FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WHICH\r\nSUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND THE CYCLONE WILL INTERACT WITH\r\nLAND AS WELL. ON THIS BASIS...RINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND\r\nTHERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION EARLY SATURDAY IF NOT SOONER. RINA WILL LIKELY BECOME A\r\nMEANDERING REMNANT LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF REGENERATION.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL\r\nTRACK SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT\r\nFOLLOWED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INVADE THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...AND THESE FEATURES WILL PUSH THE WEAKENING CYCLONE\r\nSOUTHWARD BACK TO THE CARIBBEAN WHERE IT ALL BEGAN. MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS PREFER THIS SOLUTION. DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO\r\nTHIS...IT HAS HAPPENED IN THE PAST WITH LATE SEASON CYCLONES. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 20.5N  87.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 21.5N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 21.5N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 21.0N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 20.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 19.5N  86.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 18.0N  86.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z 17.0N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rina","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n400 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SURGE OF 40-KT\r\nSOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAS STARTED TO SHEAR AWAY THE\r\nCONVECTION. AS A RESULT OF THE SHARP DEGRADATION IN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 45 KT...\r\nWHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE DOWNWARD TREND IN WIND SPEEDS NOTED IN\r\nNEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A COUPLE OF SURFACE OBS AND POOR\r\nRADAR SIGNATURES FROM BOTH CUBAN AND MEXICAN RADARS...WHICH MAKES\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AN UNCERTAIN 015/04 KT. THE RAGGED\r\nAPPEARANCE IN RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF\r\nRINA MAY ALREADY BE SUCCUMBING TO THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR. SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION HAS BECOME APPARENT JUST\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE TIP OF YUCATAN...WHEREAS SURFACE OBS INDICATE THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER IS STILL OVER LAND. WITH THE VERTICAL CIRCULATIONS\r\nFORECAST TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SLOWLY EASTWARD\r\nAND THEN TURN SOUTHWARD BACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY\r\n24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS...TVCN\r\nAND TVCA.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASE...THE\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS BEHIND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA. THIS STRONG SHEAR PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE RINA TO\r\nSTEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY LATER TODAY OR EARLY\r\nSATURDAY. RINA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 48 HOURS...BUT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF\r\nREGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IF IT DOES NOT GET ABSORBED\r\nINTO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED EAST OF NICARAGUA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 21.1N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 21.5N  86.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 21.3N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 20.6N  86.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 20.0N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 19.2N  86.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 17.9N  86.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z 17.0N  87.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rina","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-10-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011\r\n\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...AND PASSAGE OVER\r\nLAND HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON RINA. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED\r\nWELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING DISORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION AND...BASED ON THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE AND OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM CANCUN MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE MUCH WEAKER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.\r\nIN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH...AND A\r\nSECOND LOW-LEVEL VORITICTY MAXIMUM HAS FORMED ABOUT 90 N MI\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTION IN THAT\r\nAREA. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT RINA HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION WITH A 30-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/5. RINA IS CURRENTLY\r\nIN AN AREA OF LIGHT LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN RINA\r\nSOUTHWARD IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS AND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A LITTLE MORE EASTWARD MOTION BEFORE THE\r\nSOUTHWARD TURN THAN PREVIOUSLY...SO THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. THE NEW TRACK LIES A LITTLE WEST OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND NEAR THEM AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER RINA FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. THUS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO DENEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THIS\r\nCOULD OCCUR EARLIER IF ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOES NOT RE-DEVELOP\r\nNEAR THE CENTER. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW FORECAST THE\r\nREMNANTS OF RINA TO WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 120 HOURS...SO THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 21.8N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 22.1N  86.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 22.1N  85.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 21.4N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 20.6N  85.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 19.5N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 18.0N  87.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Rina","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-10-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL182011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182011\r\n400 PM CDT FRI OCT 28 2011\r\n\r\nAN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 1600 UTC SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION OF RINA\r\nHAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.  A SMALL AREA OF 25-KT WINDS WAS LOCATED\r\nABOUT 60 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS IN\r\nMUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS BECOMING EMBEDDED IN A NORTH-SOUTH TROUGH OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  THERE HAS BEEN NO ORGANIZED CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS NEAR THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF RINA. \r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...RINA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO\r\nCONTINUING STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/4.  THE REMNANTS OF RINA ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON RINA BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 21.9N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 22.1N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 21.7N  85.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 21.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 20.5N  85.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 19.0N  86.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-11-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n400 AM EST TUE NOV 08 2011\r\n \r\nCORRECTED TIME FROM EDT TO EST\r\n\r\nSATELLITE INFORMATION AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LARGE\r\nNON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING BETWEEN\r\nBERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN. AN\r\n08/1021Z ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THE ENTIRE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nHAD BECOME BETTER DEFINED...ESPECIALLY THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD. A\r\nLARGE FIELD OF 34-KT WINDS EXTENDS A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST THROUGH\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT THE ASCAT OVERPASS APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nUNDERESTIMATED THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF WINDS BASED ON WINDS OF 41 KT\r\nREPORTED BY NOAA BUOYS 41047 AND 41048 AT 08/0100Z. SINCE THE TIME\r\nOF THE ASCAT PASS...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...AND HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. FURTHERMORE...WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS STARTED TO\r\nDEVELOP DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE 08/00Z FSU PHASE\r\nEVOLUTION DIAGRAMS BASED OFF THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nINDICATE THIS SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A SHALLOW-MODERATE DEPTH WARM\r\nCORE. ALL OF THESE DATA GIVE CREDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST\r\nA SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON\r\nTHE NOAA BUOY REPORTS AND SATELLITE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF\r\nST2.5/35-40 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. SEAN HAS BEEN MAKING A\r\nSMALL CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND LITTLE\r\nOVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TRAPPED IN\r\nWEAK STEERING FLOW. BY 12-24 HOURS...HOWEVER...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nBEGINS TO ERODE AND RETREAT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nAND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. BY 48-60 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nWILL BE MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nACCELERATE SEAN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. IN THE 96-120 TIME FRAME...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH\r\nDISSIPATION OF SEAN DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS A VERY DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nSEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C SSTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE COULD POSSIBLY TRANSITION INTO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR WEAKENS. HOWEVER...ALL THIS\r\nWOULD LIKELY DO IS CONTRACT THE WIND FIELD. OVERALL...ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED...ASSUMING THAT AN EYE FEATURE\r\nDOES NOT DEVELOP. I SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SEAN IS A RELATIVELY\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM WHOSE VERTICAL EXTENT LIKELY ONLY EXTENDS UP TO THE\r\n300 MB LEVEL. AS A RESULT...THE NORMAL SHEAR COMPUTATIONS MADE BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL ARE LIKELY GOING TO BE TOO STRONG SINCE THAT MODELS\r\nUSES WINDS AT THE 200 MB LEVEL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 27.2N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 27.2N  69.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 27.4N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 28.2N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 29.2N  70.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 31.5N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 37.5N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-11-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n1100 AM AST TUE NOV 08 2011\r\n \r\nSEAN APPEARS TO BE MAKING A TRANSITION INTO A MORE TROPICAL SYSTEM\r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION FORMING IN A CURVED BAND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CENTER.  THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB...WHICH USED A CURVED BAND DVORAK PATTERN\r\nINSTEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.  SINCE SEAN IS STILL NEAR\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...I HAVE CHOSEN TO KEEP IT SUBTROPICAL ON THIS\r\nADVISORY...AND THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 40 KT.  THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY BECOME TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE DAY AS MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDING OVER SEAN. SOME\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING IS ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW TO MODERATE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...SHEAR SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE\r\nAS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  \r\n  \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...RECENTLY ON A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT.  SEAN SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nTO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGING BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE STORM WILL\r\nLIKELY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UNITED\r\nSTATES ON THURSDAY DUE TO A DEEP TROUGH MOVING OVER EASTERN NORTH\r\nAMERICA.   THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...AND ASSUME\r\nIT WILL NOT BE ABSORBED BY THAT TROUGH QUITE AS FAST AS MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 27.7N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 27.8N  69.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 28.2N  70.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 29.2N  70.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 30.2N  70.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 33.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 40.0N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-11-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n500 PM AST TUE NOV 08 2011\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF SEAN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A\r\nBANDING FEATURE PERSISTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  SINCE THE\r\nSTORM IS A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH A WARM\r\nCORE APPARENT ON AMSU ANALYSES AND A SMALLER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS AS SEEN IN ASCAT DATA...SEAN NOW HAS ENOUGH CHARACTERISTICS\r\nTO BE CONSIDERED TROPICAL.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE SET TO 45 KT...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE AND EARLIER ASCAT WINDS. \r\nWHILE THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF SEAN...THE SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HR OR SO WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  SINCE\r\nTHE STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-AIR\r\nTEMPERATURES...THE SST THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTHENING\r\nIS LOWER THAN USUAL...AND SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND REMAINS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE\r\nEXPERIMENTAL SPC3 ENSEMBLE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...\r\nSEAN SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE HOSTILE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND FOR QUITE SOME\r\nTIME...BUT IT APPEARS THAT A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST HAS\r\nBEGUN.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW\r\nAS A RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AHEAD\r\nOF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  IT SEEMS THAT\r\nBEING ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE EARLIER WAS A GOOD CALL...\r\nAS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION...APPARENTLY\r\nBECAUSE OF FLATTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW FORECAST TO AFFECT SEAN.  ONLY\r\nCOSMETIC CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WITH A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST MADE AT DAY 3...BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS MODELS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM\r\nBEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY DAY 4...AND THIS SCENARIO\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 27.8N  69.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 27.9N  70.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 28.4N  70.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 29.0N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 29.9N  69.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 34.0N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-11-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n1000 PM EST TUE NOV 08 2011\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A PRIMARY BAND OF RAGGED CONVECTION\r\nTHAT WRAPS MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WHILE THE COLDEST\r\nCLOUD TOPS AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ARE SEEN IN A SEPARATE BAND\r\nDISPLACED ABOUT 175 NM EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. WHILE SEAN IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER MARGINAL\r\nSSTS...THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE COOLER THAN NORMAL...\r\nWHICH SHOULD SUSTAIN ENOUGH CONVECTION TO ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING\r\nAND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING SEAN PEAKING\r\nIN AROUND 36 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AND\r\nCLOSE TO THE SPC3 SHIPS ENSEMBLE. AFTER 48 HOURS SEAN WILL MOVE\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS. SEAN SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A SURFACE\r\nFRONT SHORTLY AFTER TRANSITION...AND IN FACT SOME GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFIELDS SHOW THAT OCCURRING EARLIER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nSEAN HAS MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/03. A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS. SEAN SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BY\r\n48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES. DUE TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION THE NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nFOR THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE LATEST RUN OF\r\nTHE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT THE NHC FORECAST HAS ONLY\r\nBEEN NUDGED A LITTLE IN THAT DIRECTION AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...AND\r\nSTILL LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON SEVERAL PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATIONS ABOVE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE AT NOAA BUOY 41048.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 27.9N  70.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 28.0N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 28.6N  70.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 29.5N  70.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 31.0N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 36.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-11-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n400 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011\r\n\r\nSEAN HAS AGAIN CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  A CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BAND IS PRESENT WITHIN 60-75 N MI OF\r\nTHE CENTER...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE OUTER\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS ARE PRESENT UP TO 240 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB ARE 45 KT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD\r\nBASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/3.  SEAN IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS CUT OFF FROM THE WESTERLIES SOUTH OF A\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING EASTWARD\r\nTHROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHIS SYSTEM TO REACH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE SEAN TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nAGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH THE DIRECTION\r\nAND SPEED OF FORWARD MOTION AFTER 24 HOURS.  THE ECMWF MODEL IS ON\r\nTHE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND TAKES THE CENTER NEAR\r\nBERMUDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE ON THE LEFT SIDE FORECASTING\r\nA TRACK CLOSER TO NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT/NORTH COMPARED TO 6 HOURS AGO...\r\nAND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nSEAN IS IN A REGION OF LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CUT-OFF LOW.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE\r\nPRESENT SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR CAUSED BY THE TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nFROM THE WEST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SEAN TO STRENGTHEN SOME TODAY...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING TREND AFTER 24 HOURS.  SEAN IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT\r\nBETWEEN 48-72 HOURS...WITH THE CIRCULATION BECOMING TOTALLY\r\nABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY 96 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH JUST A LITTLE LESS\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THE CIRCULATION OF SEAN\r\nDISSIPATING BEFORE 72 HOURS...SO THE CURRENT FORECAST LIFETIME\r\nCOULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 27.9N  70.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 28.4N  70.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 29.4N  70.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 30.6N  69.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 33.1N  67.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 38.5N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-11-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n1000 AM EST WED NOV 09 2011\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nIN A BROKEN RING AROUND THE CENTER OF SEAN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY\r\nTHAT AN EYE FEATURE IS FORMING.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 45/55 KT...AND A BLEND OF THESE DATA\r\nGIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.  SEAN HAS ABOUT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS OF RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO\r\nFAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS A BIT HIGHER...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE LAST ONE...\r\nBETWEEN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE IF A CENTRAL CORE BECOMES\r\nWELL ESTABLISHED.  \r\n\r\nTHE GRADUAL POLEWARD TURN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/3.  SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY...STEERING SEAN\r\nON A PATH TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BY EARLY TOMORROW. \r\nAS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHES THE\r\nSTORM...AN INCREASE IN MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THERE CONTINUES TO\r\nBE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD...HOWEVER...ON HOW FAR SEAN MOVES FROM\r\nBERMUDA.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE REST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING A CLOSER TRACK TO BERMUDA...SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL STAY NEAR THOSE HISTORICALLY RELIABLE MODELS.  MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONT\r\nBETWEEN DAY 3 AND DAY 4...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW\r\nTHIS SCENARIO.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 27.9N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 28.4N  70.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 29.6N  70.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 31.5N  68.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 33.8N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 41.0N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-11-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n400 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SEAN IS STRENGTHENING.  THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN CONSISTS OF A LARGE COILED BAND...WHICH APPEARS TO BE\r\nWRAPPING UP INTO A BANDING EYE FEATURE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...SO THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  WITH\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CORE AND ABOUT A DAY OF LIGHT SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS REMAINING...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION SEEMS PROBABLE.  IT\r\nIS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY NONE OF THE MODELS MAKE THIS A HURRICANE...\r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY HAD A LOW BIAS WITH\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.  GIVEN THE DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE...THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST SHOWS SEAN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WHICH IS A BIT\r\nHIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 5 KT...A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN EARLIER. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME\r\nACCELERATION IS EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FEELS THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD...THE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY\r\nCONSISTENT IN SHOWING SEAN MOVING A FAIR DISTANCE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF BERMUDA. THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF MODELS CAME IN VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEW\r\nNHC TRACK. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SEAN BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN TWO DAYS...AND THEN BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL\r\nBOUNDARY BY DAY 3.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 28.7N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 29.4N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 30.6N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 32.7N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 35.8N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-11-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n1000 PM EST WED NOV 09 2011\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY OF SEAN HAS\r\nLEVELED OFF THIS EVENING. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER\r\nHAVE WARMED...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE U.S. NAVY\r\nFNMOC TC WEBPAGE STILL SHOWS A BANDING EYE FEATURE. BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF SOME INNER\r\nCORE STRUCTURE...SEAN STILL HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN IN THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM AT 24 HOURS...SHOWING SEAN REACHING\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. AFTER THAT TIME...SEAN SHOULD WEAKEN DUE TO\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS AND BEING ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL\r\nBOUNDARY SHORTLY THEREAFTER...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nSEAN HAS JOGGED QUICKLY NORTHWARD THIS EVENING...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/07. SEAN SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON\r\nTHURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED THURSDAY\r\nNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING OFF OF THE EAST COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nDUE TO THE FASTER NORTHWARD MOTION THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT TIME\r\nONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 29.5N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 30.3N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 31.8N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 34.5N  64.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 38.5N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-11-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n400 AM EST THU NOV 10 2011\r\n\r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS THAT\r\nSEAN IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASING\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTER AND OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS AT EYE\r\nFORMATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 55\r\nKT...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY\r\nHAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nSEAN CONTINUES ITS NORTHERLY TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/7. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES APPROACHING\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SEAN TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE\r\nREMAINDER OF ITS LIFETIME.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS PERHAPS 12-24 HOURS FOR SEAN TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE STRONG\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPACTS THE STORM.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SEAN TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nAFTER THAT...STRONG SHEAR AND THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nCOMPLETE BY 48 HOURS...AND BY 72 HOURS SEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM TO ITS NORTH.  AS NOTED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEAN COULD DISSIPATE\r\nEARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 30.2N  70.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 31.2N  69.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 33.4N  67.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 37.0N  63.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 41.5N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-11-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n1000 AM EST THU NOV 10 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH SEAN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THE STORM CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE...WITH A MORE\r\nCOMPACT APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE THAN YESTERDAY. DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN THE SAME...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT.\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE AROUND 1800 UTC TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL WINDS. SEAN STILL HAS A DAY OR SO OF MARGINAL WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES AND MODERATE SHEAR LEFT TO INTENSIFY. SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD NOTABLY INCREASE AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING OF THE STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SIX\r\nHOURS AGO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\nSEAN COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPLICITLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST...MOVING ABOUT 035/6.\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK CONTINUING WITH A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING THE CYCLONE PASSING A FAIR\r\nDISTANCE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.  STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND\r\nA COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH SEAN BECOMING ABSORBED BY THAT FRONT WITHIN\r\n48 HOURS.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SEAN DISSIPATED A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS INDICATED BY THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 30.4N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 31.8N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 34.7N  65.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 39.0N  60.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-11-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n500 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF SEAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nLESS ORGANIZED...WITH CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE FEATURE APPEARING\r\nTO WEAKEN A BIT AND BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nAIRCRAFT MISSION THIS AFTERNOON INTO SEAN FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 63 KT...SFMR MEASUREMENTS OF 52 KT...ALONG WITH A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 983 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT\r\n55 KT. THE CHANCES OF SEAN BECOMING A HURRICANE APPEAR TO BE\r\nDIMINISHING DUE TO THE DEGRADED STRUCTURE. SINCE THE MODELS\r\nGENERALLY SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD. BY\r\nTOMORROW...WEAKENING IS LIKELY...AND THIS IS ALREADY BEING HERALDED\r\nBY THE ERODING CIRRUS OVERFLOW ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSEAN IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...NOW MOVING AT ABOUT \r\n11 KT...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY IT MIGHT BE WOBBLING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THAT ESTIMATE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE VERY\r\nCONSISTENT IN SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AS SEAN PASSES\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE LATEST MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A\r\nBIT TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST WAS BE NUDGED IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION. IN A DAY OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOVERTAKE SEAN AND ABSORB THE SYSTEM. THE NEW FORECAST IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THE MODELS NOW\r\nSHOW SEAN DISSIPATED AS EARLY AS 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 30.9N  69.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 32.5N  67.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 36.1N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-11-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n1100 PM AST THU NOV 10 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE TRENDS HAVE PROVIDED MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY\r\nOF SEAN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ON ONE HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OF\r\nABOUT 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS HAS DISPLACED THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AS SEEN IN RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS\r\nHAVE COOLED AND EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH 00Z DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. BY 24 HOURS...SEAN SHOULD BE\r\nABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nRECENT DVORAK AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 060/11. THIS RIGHTWARD JOG SHOULD BE TEMPORARY\r\nHOWEVER...AS ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nAHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\nGIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTHEAST...OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE\r\nTO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 31.5N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 33.6N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-11-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n500 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011\r\n\r\nSEAN IS SHOWING A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN IN INFRARED AND TRMM\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  WHILE\r\nSUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE\r\nUNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTHE AMSU MICROWAVE SOUNDER AND THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nHAVE DECREASED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS.  IN ADDITION...\r\nAN ASCAT OVERPASS NEAR 0200 UTC SHOWED WINDS NEAR 45 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED TO 50 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY BEFORE\r\nSEAN GETS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 18-24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSEAN IS ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 050/19.  AN EVEN FASTER\r\nMOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nLIFE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 32.9N  66.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 35.2N  62.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-11-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 \r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL      AL192011 \r\n1100 AM AST FRI NOV 11 2011\r\n\r\nSEAN IS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER LOCATED ABOUT 70 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE SHRINKING DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nDECREASED... AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT. A COLD\r\nFRONT... CURRENTLY SITUATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST OF\r\nSEAN...IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY CAUSING IT\r\nTO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THEN.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS GAINING FORWARD SPEED...AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/20. THE CENTER OF SEAN IS CURRENTLY PASSING\r\nJUST NORTH OF BERMUDA...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE RAPIDLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC UNTIL IT DISSIPATES TONIGHT\r\nOR EARLY SATURDAY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT 11/1500Z 34.0N 64.1W 45 KT 50 MPH \r\n 12H 12/0000Z 37.2N 59.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP \r\n 24H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$ \r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sean","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-11-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RRA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15...RETRANSMITTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n500 PM AST FRI NOV 11 2011\r\n \r\nSEAN IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SHOW STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ENTRAINING INTO THE\r\nSOUTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS STABLE AIR IS ALSO EVIDENT\r\nIN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WITH THE DEWPOINT IN BERMUDA FALLING\r\nABOUT 3C DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. MEANWHILE...A RAGGED CURVED\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION STILL EXISTS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THAT IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING ADVISORIES ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM. NONETHELESS...SEAN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL\r\nSOON AND WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS NOW\r\nVERY NEAR THE CYCLONE...TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nSEAN IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 35.5N  61.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 38.2N  56.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Sean","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-11-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL192011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192011\r\n1100 PM AST FRI NOV 11 2011\r\n \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS A BAND OF THUNDERSTORM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OF\r\nLOWEST PRESSURE...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEAN HAS BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND HAS MERGED WITH A COLD FRONT. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE\r\nON THIS TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION ON SATURDAY.  THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SEAN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 36.7N  57.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 39.0N  52.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-06-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 365 MILES SOUTH\r\nOF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS NOW DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF\r\nTHE 2011 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.0 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LESS THAN\r\n10 KT AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 C SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...WHICH\r\nIS UNANIMOUSLY SHOWN BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO A\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN 3 DAYS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WITH A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS.  BETWEEN 36 AND 96 HOURS...A GRADUAL BEND TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  BY DAY 5...THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DUE TO\r\nAN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS...WHICH MOVE THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nAPPEAR UNREALISTIC AND ARE CONSIDERED OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 11.6N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 11.9N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 12.5N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 13.2N 101.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 14.0N 101.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 15.1N 103.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 16.5N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-06-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT AN ORGANIZED PATTERN OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND COVERING MUCH OF THE\r\nWESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW\r\n2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ARE THE BASIS FOR A SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nSYNOPTIC STEERING FLOW REMAINS WEAK...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 295/3. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO. BEYOND THAT TIME...A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO IMPART A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH DAY 5.  THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK BIASES AND THUS HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN WEIGHTED LESS\r\nHEAVILY THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...\r\nWITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR. THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 4 DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TO A\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A\r\nHIGH PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 11.7N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 12.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 12.8N 100.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 13.6N 101.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 14.5N 102.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 15.2N 104.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 16.0N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER HOGSETT/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-06-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 07 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING NEAR THE CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nMORE CONCENTRATED...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC.\r\nSINCE THAT TIME...INCREASED ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN\r\nMICROWAVE DATA...WITH EVIDENCE OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE ON 0104\r\nUTC SSMI/S IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40\r\nKT...MAKING THIS THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nSEASON.\r\n\r\nADRIAN HAS NOT BEEN MOVING VERY MUCH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF ABOUT 300/3. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO UNTIL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MEXICO. THIS CHANGE IN\r\nSTEERING SHOULD RESULT IN ADRIAN TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THERE REMAINS A FAIR BIT OF\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS THE HWRF/GFDL SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTH CLOSER TO MEXICO BEFORE MAKING THAT\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL BIASES OF THOSE\r\nMODELS...THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE GFS/GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR NEAR ADRIAN WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 30C\r\nALONG ITS PATH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY. INDEED THE\r\nSHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE INDICATES A 59 PERCENT CHANCE\r\nOF A 30 KT INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MOST NEGATIVE FACTOR\r\nAGAINST THIS OCCURRING IS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THAT DRY AIR WOULD TAKE SOME TIME\r\nPENETRATING THE CORE REGIONS...ESPECIALLY WITHOUT ANY SHEARING\r\nMECHANISM TO ACCELERATE THAT PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nRAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING CONSIDERABLE\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...ADRIAN SHOULD BE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nRESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND THIS TIME.\r\n\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 11.8N 100.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 12.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 13.0N 101.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 13.9N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 14.5N 103.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 15.5N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 16.0N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-06-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN OUTER BAND OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/4.  ADRIAN IS\r\nCURRENTLY IN A COL REGION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF ADRIAN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 H OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  WHILE GENERALLY\r\nAGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nBRING ADRIAN NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING IT PARALLEL TO\r\nTHE COAST.  THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP THE STORM FARTHER\r\nOFFSHORE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nADRIAN IS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24-36 H.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 H...AND A 77 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40 KT OF STRENGTHENING. \r\nA NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nSTORM...WHICH THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM AFTER\r\n24 H.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 24 H...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE FROM 24-48\r\nH IN ANTICIPATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.  THIS PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nAFTER 48 H...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 12.0N 100.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 12.6N 101.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 14.1N 103.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 14.7N 104.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-06-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WITH\r\nA WELL-DEFINED LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE-QUARTERS\r\nOF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 55\r\nKT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AT 1200 UTC...BUT SINCE THAT TIME THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.\r\n \r\nA 1059 UTC SSMI PASS SHOWED WHAT MIGHT BE THE BEGINNING OF A BANDED\r\nEYE FEATURE. IN ADDITION...THIS PASS AND RECENT VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS JOGGED NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...AND THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/5.\r\nALTHOUGH THE STORM HAS CHANGED ITS HEADING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS OR\r\nSO...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED.  A GENERAL\r\nSLOW NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nANTICIPATED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT...OR NORTH...MAINLY DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND POSITION.  \r\nTHIS PUTS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSER TO...BUT STILL TO THE LEFT\r\nOF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION APPEARS VERY LIKELY AS ADRIAN STILL LIES\r\nOVER ABOUT 30C WATERS AND IN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  IN\r\nFACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS ABOUT A 70\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  GIVEN\r\nTHE EXPECTED CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN NUDGED UPWARD AND SHOWS\r\nADRIAN INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN MORE\r\nSLOWLY THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER 72 HOURS...ADRIAN WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 12.9N 100.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 13.5N 101.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 14.2N 102.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 14.9N 103.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 15.5N 104.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 16.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 17.5N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 18.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-06-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  HOWEVER...THIS FEATURE\r\nIS NOT YET COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE BANDING...AS SEEN IN\r\nINFRARED IMAGES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH\r\nFROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nAFTER JOGGING NORTHWARD EARLIER...ADRIAN APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A\r\nMORE NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER SPEED...330/7.  A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE TRACK MODELS\r\nREMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS SHOWING ADRIAN TURNING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH DUE TO\r\nA STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  CONVERSELY...\r\nTHE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A WEAKER SHORTWAVE AND TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE WESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS HAS SLOWED TODAY...ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS ADRIAN REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  STEADY...OR EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION...IS LIKELY\r\nOVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS ADRIAN REMAINS OVER WATERS OF 29-30\r\nC AND IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHE COOLER SSTS ALONG WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nPROMOTE WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 13.5N 101.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 14.1N 102.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 14.8N 103.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 15.4N 104.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 15.9N 105.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 18.5N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-06-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011\r\n \r\nADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN AND A RAGGED\r\nEYE ON THE LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...WITH SUBSTANTIALLY\r\nDEEPER CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IN\r\nADDITION...A 37 GHZ WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0020 UTC INDICATES A\r\nCLOSED RING AND INCREASED ORGANIZATION TO THE EYEWALL. SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT\r\nSINCE THAT TIME THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET CONSERVATIVELY TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT AND HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL STEER ADRIAN\r\nON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN\r\nANOTHER LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS...LED BY THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL/GFDN MODELS ARE WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEY ARE CONSIDERED HIGHLY\r\nUNLIKELY SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING DURING ITS ENTIRE LIFE\r\nCYCLE...AND THERE IS NOT A LOT OF REASON TO THINK THIS WILL STOP\r\nANYTIME SOON. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD STAY\r\nABOVE 29C FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nANOTHER 24H PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WITH A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING BEGINNING OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO DECREASING SSTS AND\r\nINCREASING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...\r\nBOTH OF WHICH SHOW ADRIAN AS A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER VERY COOL WATERS IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING PROCESS.\r\n\r\nAS A RESULT OF THE LEFTWARD SHIFT IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK...AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE\r\nASSOCIATED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS\r\nDISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 13.8N 102.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 14.4N 103.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 15.1N 104.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 15.6N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 16.1N 106.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 17.5N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 18.5N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-06-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011\r\n\r\nADRIAN CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -80C\r\nPRESENT IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  A JUST-RECEIVED TRMM\r\nOVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE UNDER THE\r\nCDO...AND THERE HAVE BEEN HINTS OF THIS FEATURE IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 77\r\nKT AT 0600 UTC...AND BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 80 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS\r\nEXCEPT TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/10...FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAT FOR THE NEXT 72 HR ADRIAN WILL MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER WESTERN MEXICO.  THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER\r\nTHAN AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  AFTER 72 HR...THE LARGE-\r\nSCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THE GFS...GFDL...\r\nAND HWRF RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ADRIAN TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND\r\nCANADIAN MODELS FORECAST ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE\r\nTROUGH CAN TURN IT NORTHWARD.  SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nWEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS\r\nMORE ON THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS IN CALLING FOR A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.\r\n\r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE HURRICANE...\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING.  ASSUMING\r\nTHAT THE DRY AIR DOES NOT REACH THE INNER CORE...ADRIAN IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 TO 36 HR...WITH SLOW WEAKENING AFTER\r\nTHAT.  IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY TO ENTER A LESS\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT 72 HR....WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO CAUSE A MORE RAPID WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 103.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 14.7N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 15.2N 106.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 16.2N 108.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-06-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 09 2011\r\n \r\nADRIAN HAS DEVELOPED A DISTINCT EYE WHICH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nRATHER LARGE AND SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE HURRICANE\r\nDISPLAYS A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WITH NO SIGNS OF\r\nSHEAR. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nINCREASED THIS MORNING...AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100\r\nKNOTS. THIS MAKES ADRIAN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE\r\nSAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...OR\r\nAT LEAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE THE CIRCULATION\r\nBEGINS TO BE AFFECTED BY STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR\r\nSO. BY THEN...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nA STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO HAS EXPANDED AND CONSEQUENTLY...ADRIAN HAS ACQUIRED\r\nA MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285 DEGREES AT\r\n8 KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING\r\nAND BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS\r\nSTEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THEN...ADRIAN SHOULD BE\r\nWEAKER AND WILL PROBABLY BECOME STEERED MORE WESTWARD BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY\r\nSHIFT SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE BUILDING OF THE RIDGE AND IN FACT...NONE\r\nOF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...TURN THE HURRICANE\r\nNORTHWARD AS INDICATED YESTERDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 14.2N 104.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 14.5N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 15.0N 106.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 15.8N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-06-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011\r\n \r\nDURING MOST OF THE DAY...ADRIAN HAS MAINTAINED A VERY DISTINCT EYE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WRAPPED BY A\r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENTLY...THE CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nHAS WEAKENED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE AN\r\nANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LARGE EYE AND A CDO. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES\r\nTO BE WELL ESTABLISHED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT\r\nSINCE ADRIAN IS BECOMING ANNULAR...IT WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE\r\nLITTLE IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL THE CIRCULATION\r\nBECOMES WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nADRIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT\r\n8 KNOTS...TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING FARTHER\r\nWESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nFAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ADRIAN COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT\r\nWEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE RELIABLE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS\r\nAND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AWAY FROM\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 14.4N 104.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 14.7N 106.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 15.0N 107.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 16.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-06-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011\r\n \r\nADRIAN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nEVENING. THE EYE IS NOW ESSENTIALLY CLOUD-FREE AND NEARLY EMBEDDED\r\nIN THE CENTER OF A ROUND CDO...WHICH CONTAINS CLOUD TOPS COLDER\r\nTHAN -75C. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE T6.5/127 KT AND T5.5/102 KT...RESPECTIVELY. UW-CIMSS\r\nOBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AVERAGING AROUND T6.1/118\r\nKT AND NHC ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS T6.7/130 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET AT 120 KT...MAINLY DUE TO\r\nINTERMITTENT BREAKS IN THE -70C/WHITE RING SURROUNDING THE EYE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A STRONG\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF ADRIAN THAT EXTENDS\r\nFROM MAINLAND MEXICO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA AND INTO THE EXTREME\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nREMAIN INTACT FOR THE NEXT 4-5 DAYS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE HURRICANE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nAND TOWARD GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NONE OF THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN ACROSS ANY LAND AREAS THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...HOWEVER...STILL\r\nHAVE A PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD BIAS TOWARD BAJA AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH\r\nIS CONSIDERED TO BE AN OUTLIER SCENARIO DUE TO THE STRONG RIDGE\r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. SINCE ADRIAN REMAINS\r\nBASICALLY ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nADRIAN HAS INTENSIFIED 85 KT OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS...AND IS LIKELY\r\nNEAR PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SUCH LONG DURATION RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nEVENTS ARE QUITE RARE. HAVING SAID THAT...MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT ADRIAN HAS STABILIZED AS AN ANNULAR\r\nHURRICANE WITH A 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE. WITH NO CURRENT\r\nINDICATIONS THAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ABOUT TO BEGIN...\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C AND IN\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS OF 5 KT OR LESS. STEADY WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED TO ENSUE BY 24 HOURS AS ADRIAN ENCOUNTERS SOUTHWEST TO\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING FORECAST\r\nBY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 14.6N 105.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 14.9N 106.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.3N 108.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.6N 109.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 16.0N 111.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 16.6N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 17.4N 114.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 18.7N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-06-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011\r\n\r\nADRIAN APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  WHILE IT CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED 20 N MI\r\nWIDE EYE...THE EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING THE\r\nPAST 6-12 HR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 127 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 115 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 120 KT.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nPOOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/8.  ADRIAN IS SOUTH OF A LOW/\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC...AND\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL\r\nSTEER THE HURRICANE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE CYCLONE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE AS A\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF ADRIAN.  SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THE STORM SHEARING APART IN RESPONSE TO THIS...WITH THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTER TURNING NORTHWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nDRIFTING WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO AND FORECASTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nAFTER 48 HR.  HOWEVER...IF ADRIAN STAYS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...IT\r\nWOULD LIKELY TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS FORECAST BY THE GFS...GFDL...\r\nAND HWRF MODELS.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS LIKELY AT OR NEAR PEAK INTENSITY AS IT IS NOW MOVING OVER\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE HURRICANE HAS A SOMEWHAT\r\nANNULAR STRUCTURE WITH NO CURRENT EVIDENCE OF AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24-36 HR WHILE IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER LESS FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS AFTER 36-48 HR...AND DUE TO THE SHEARING APART\r\nMENTIONED ABOVE SOME GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING\r\nCOMPLETELY BEFORE 120 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE A\r\nLITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE MODELS AND SHOW ADRIAN WEAKENING\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 15.0N 106.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 15.3N 107.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.7N 109.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 16.0N 111.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 16.3N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 17.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-06-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE STILL CONSISTS OF A DISTINCT EYE\r\nAND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING\r\nTHE EYE HAS DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nDECREASED...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.  WITH NO\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ANTICIPATED...THE INTERACTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WITH THE STRONG SST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL PROBABLY BE\r\nTHE MAIN CAUSE FOR ADRIAN TO WEAKEN AS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.\r\nWEAKENING COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN EXPECTED AS SUGGESTED BY SOME\r\nMODELS LIKE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE ECMWF. \r\n\r\nADRIAN CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nOR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING\r\nPATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE...THEREFORE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. IF ADRIAN REMAINS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED...IT COULD\r\nACQUIRE A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nREGARDLESS...ADRIAN STILL WILL BE A WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOL WATERS WELL AWAY FROM MEXICO.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 15.3N 107.6W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.6N 109.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 16.0N 110.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 16.3N 112.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 16.8N 113.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 20.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-06-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nDROPPING.  USING A BLEND OF ODT AND THE SUBJECTIVE DATA T AND\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS PROVIDES AN INTENSITY OF 110 KT. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND BY LATE\r\nSATURDAY SHOULD BE OVER SUB-26C SSTS AS WELL AS BEING AFFECTED BY\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE\r\nWINDS DOWN GRADUALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN WITH WEAKENING AT\r\nA FASTER RATE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN FOUR TO FIVE DAYS.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND SLIGHTLY\r\nWEAKER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nADRIAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT STEERED\r\nPRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS AND\r\nTHE HURRICANE MODELS DRIVEN BY THE GFS...INDICATE A MORE VIGOROUS\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE SHARPLY TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR AND HOSTILE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS. THIS FORECAST RELIES MORE UPON THE ECMWF...UKMET...\r\nAND NOGAPS MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER VORTEX MOVING MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. THE TRACK PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN MORE POLEWARD AT THREE AND FOUR DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 15.5N 108.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 15.9N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 16.3N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 16.7N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 17.2N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-06-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 10 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN STEADILY ERODING DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nIMAGERY. TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AS\r\nWELL AS UW-CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WERE 5.5/102 KT\r\nAT 00Z. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM SINCE THEN AND\r\nTHE RATHER DISHEVELED-LOOKING CDO SUGGESTS THAT ADRIAN IS PROBABLY\r\nWEAKER. THEREFORE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...WHICH\r\nCOULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION TOWARD\r\nCOLDER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\nBY 72-96 HOURS...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD\r\nOFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE RIDGE AND ALLOW ADRIAN TO MOVE MORE POLEWARD. HOWEVER...BY\r\nTHAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL LIKELY\r\nHAVE DECOUPLED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR AND COLD SSTS NEAR\r\n22C....RESULTING IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING STEERED MORE\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES WHILE THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS ARE FORCED NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND\r\nUKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nADRIAN IS CURRENTLY OVER 26.5C SSTS AND COOLER WATERS LIE AHEAD OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. ALSO...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND\r\nBECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE COMBINATION\r\nOF COLDER SSTS AND HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING COULD EVEN BE FASTER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\nADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 96-120 HOURS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.6N 109.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 15.9N 110.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 16.7N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 17.4N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 18.7N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Adrian","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-06-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011\r\n \r\nADRIAN APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING IMPLOSIVE FILLING.  A RECENT TRMM\r\nOVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS BROKEN OPEN...WITH THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS\r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED SYSTEM IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE RAPID\r\nDECAY MAKES THE INITIAL INTENSITY PROBLEMATIC.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 90 AND 77 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 0600\r\nUTC.  HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THESE\r\nESTIMATES ARE TOO HIGH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75\r\nKT...AND THIS COULD BE QUITE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/10.  OTHER THAN\r\nTHAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ADRIAN IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...WITH THE RIDGE FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTHWEST OF THE STORM. \r\nTHIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE ADRIAN TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. \r\nTHE ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT ADRIAN COULD\r\nCOMPLETELY SHEAR APART WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT BEING STEERED\r\nMORE WESTWARD THAN FORECAST BY THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  IN DEFERENCE TO\r\nTHIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nA COMBINATION OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCURRENT WEAKENING TREND GOING.  ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND\r\nHWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING COMPLETELY BEFORE 96 HR...AND THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO.  IF CURRENT TRENDS\r\nCONTINUE...ADRIAN COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 15.8N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 16.0N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 16.5N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 17.0N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 17.6N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-06-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011\r\n \r\nTHE RAPID WEAKENING OF ADRIAN CONTINUES AS THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION IS DEVOLVING TOWARD A SHEAR PATTERN.  THE\r\nDECREASE IN INTENSITY IS LIKELY DUE TO AN UNEXPECTEDLY EARLY\r\nINCREASE OF VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS. \r\nWHILE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUES BOTH\r\nARE RULE-CONSTRAINED TO INDICATE HURRICANE INTENSITY...THE AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE MUCH WEAKER.  A BLEND\r\nOF THESE ARE THE BASIS FOR THE 60 KT INTENSITY AT ADVISORY\r\nTIME...AND THAT COULD BE GENEROUS. WITH ADRIAN DROPPING FROM A   \r\n115 KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TO A TROPICAL STORM IN JUST 24 HOURS...\r\nTHIS IS AN EXAMPLE OF EXTREME RAPID FILLING FOR A CYCLONE OVER\r\nWATER.  AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO\r\nSTRONG SHEAR...ADRIAN SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nIN ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT\r\nINDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nADRIAN IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT PRIMARILY UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  A VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF OF CALIFORNIA MAY ACT TO\r\nTURN THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nHOWEVER...ONCE THE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS GONE FROM THIS SYSTEM IN\r\nABOUT 36-48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN TO BAM-SHALLOW\r\nTHEREAFTER.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK PREDICTION WERE\r\nMADE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 15.8N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 16.0N 112.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 16.5N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 17.1N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 18.0N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS WEAKENING AS FAST AS IT INTENSIFIED...AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS DEGENERATED INTO A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nPATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON RAPIDLY DECAYING\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE ADRIAN IS ALREADY AFFECTED BY STRONG\r\nSHEAR...SURROUNDED BY STABLE AIR...AND MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS...IT COULD EASILY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR\r\nSOONER. SOME INTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD\r\nREDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER BETWEEN NOW AND DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. \r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE IN TWO\r\nDAYS...BUT BY THEN ADRIAN SHOULD HAVE DISSIPATED.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 15.8N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 15.9N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 16.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 18.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-06-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 11 2011\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH\r\nMAY HAVE BRIEFLY HALTED THE WEAKENING PROCESS. SINCE THEN...\r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON WANE. AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nADRIAN HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST...OR 275/10. MOST\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE TAKES ADRIAN WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN TURN THE SYSTEM TOWARD NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTH. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT GAIN IN LATITUDE SEEMS RATHER\r\nUNLIKELY SINCE ADRIAN IS WEAKENING INTO A SHALLOW SYSTEM RATHER\r\nTHAN MAINTAINING VERTICAL INTEGRITY LIKE MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ADRIAN HAS BEEN SHEARED MORE\r\nTHAN 200 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD FASTER THAN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nFORECASTING. THE RESULT IS THAT ADRIAN AND ITS SHALLOW REMNANTS ARE\r\nNOW EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MORE OF A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES ALONG THE EXTREME LEFT SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...\r\nADRIAN SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY QUICKLY DUE TO COOLER SSTS...A MORE\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY WIND\r\nSHEAR. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF BURSTS OF MODEST CONVECTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING...WITH ADRIAN BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM IN 18-24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 15.8N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 16.1N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 16.7N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 17.3N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adrian","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-06-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011\r\n \r\nADRIAN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDIMINISHED AROUND 0400 UTC...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW MAINLY\r\nCONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430\r\nUTC REVEALED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 35 KT...BUT SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING HAS LIKELY OCCURRED SINCE THAT TIME. THEREFORE...ADRIAN\r\nHAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS OVER 25 C WATERS AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nTHESE COOL WATERS...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND AN INCREASE IN\r\nWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE ADRIAN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nLATER TODAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE\r\nREMNANT LOW DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KT.  SEVERAL OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS INSIST ON TAKING THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANTS...\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AS A TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW IN\r\nNATURE...A NORTHWARD TRACK APPEARS UNREASONABLE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAR LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 16.1N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 16.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 17.2N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 18.0N 117.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 19.0N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Adrian","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-06-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP012011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 12 2011\r\n \r\nADRIAN IS ESSENTIALLY A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS\r\nEXCEPT FOR A FEW TRANSIENT PUFFS OF DEEP CONVECTION. SINCE ADRIAN\r\nHAS LARGELY BEEN DEVOID OF CONVECTION FOR A WHILE NOW...IT NO\r\nLONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...BASED UPON AN\r\nEARLIER ASCAT PASS AND THE STILL VIGOROUS APPEARANCE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nIS BEING HELD AT 30 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS\r\nADRIAN IS MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION WITHIN 24-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANTS OF\r\nADRIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATING\r\nAS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nSINCE THE MODELS FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT ASSUME A STRONGER SYSTEM\r\nWHEN ADRIAN IS ALREADY A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS WHICH WEAKEN ADRIAN\r\nFASTER.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON ADRIAN.  FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.5N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 17.1N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 17.8N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 18.7N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-06-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW OFF OF THE SOUTHERN COAST\r\nOF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS\r\nTHE SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON.  OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS\r\nDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...WITH\r\nTHE FORMATION OF CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT\r\nBASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAPPEARS FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WITH THE CYCLONE SITUATED OVER SSTS NEAR 30C.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...BETWEEN 15 AND 20\r\nKT DURING THE PERIOD...BUT STILL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nTHINKING...BUT IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  BY 72 HOURS..THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REACH MUCH COOLER SSTS AND SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER\r\nQUICKLY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS...CONSISTENT WITH THE ANALYZED NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER OVERNIGHT...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/8. THE GLOBAL \r\nMODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC STEERING THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS A LONGWAVE\r\nTROUGH PROGRESSES FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES\r\nIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AND BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TROUGH\r\nWILL MOVE EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO RE-STRENGTHEN NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST.  A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AS THE CYCLONE MAKES\r\nIT CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE COAST.  \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED\r\nA HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCOAST AT THIS TIME.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 13.7N  99.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 14.4N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 15.6N 102.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 17.0N 103.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 18.4N 104.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 19.5N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nSITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION.  TWO CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS ARE ALSO NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON THE 1800 UTC DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BEATRIZ SHOULD HAVE AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN TO HURRICANE INTENSITY WITHIN THE NEXT 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SITUATED OVER VERY WARM\r\nWATERS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER\r\nSSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5\r\nWHEN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nBEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE LONGER TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n300/10. THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THE STEERING PATTERN...SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE WEAKENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nBEATRIZ TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO\r\nAND MOVE CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST. BY 72 HOURS THE COMBINATION OF\r\nA WEAKENING CYCLONE AND THE RIDGE RE-STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST.\r\nTHROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS...THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 14.3N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 15.3N 102.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 17.8N 103.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 18.9N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011\r\n \r\nENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF\r\nBEATRIZ IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INCREASED\r\nEVIDENCE OF CURVED BANDS AND MORE SYMMETRY AROUND THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. \r\nBEATRIZ WILL BE MOVING OVER A VERY WARM SEA SURFACE WITH HIGH\r\nOCEANIC HEAT CONTENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE BY LATE TOMORROW AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND\r\nGFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nABOVE THESE MODELS SINCE THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX\r\nSHOWS A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF AN INCREASE OF INTENSITY OF 25\r\nTO 30 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD ENCOUNTER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nA MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THEREFORE BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10.  NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER WESTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL NORTH AMERICA SHOULD WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF BEATRIZ AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE\r\nRIGHT AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nIN THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE TROUGH SHOULD LIFT\r\nOUT AND ALLOW SOME BUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nBEATRIZ.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD COURSE...ESPECIALLY\r\nAS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO ARE\r\nREQUIRED AT THIS TIME.  ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK SINCE ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST COULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 14.9N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 15.7N 102.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 16.9N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 17.9N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 18.8N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 20.0N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 20.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 20.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011\r\n \r\nA SIGNIFICANT BURST OF VERY COLD TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nHAS TAKEN ON A CDO-LIKE APPEARANCE. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF BEATRIZ IS NOT LOCATED DIRECTLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CLOUD\r\nMASS...BUT INSTEAD IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CDO\r\nNEAR SOME VERY COLD OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OF -85 TO -88C. THIS\r\nMORE EASTWARD ADVISORY POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY EARLIER MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE DATA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T3.1/47 KT FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT...AND AN INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 315/9. ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nMOVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS STATES AND\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS..WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BEATRIZ AND ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND MOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. THERE IS...HOWEVER...\r\nA SLIGHT BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO...AND THEN TURN IT WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nECMWF...GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...HOWEVER...TAKE BEATRIZ JUST\r\nINLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE LATTER MODELS MOVE THE CENTER JUST INLAND ALONG THE\r\nCOAST AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...ALL OF THE MODELS TAKE THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND KEEPS BEATRIZ JUST\r\nOFFSHORE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE WESTWARD AFTER\r\nTHAT AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. THIS IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION\r\nTHAT BEATRIZ WILL MAINTAIN ITS VERTICAL CONTINUITY AND NOT DECOUPLE\r\nDUE TO LAND INTERACTION. HOWEVER...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEEDED TO BRING THE CYCLONE NEAR OR\r\nINLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. FOR THIS REASON...\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERNS HAVE\r\nIMPROVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. WITH AN ALREADY\r\nEXPANSIVE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN PRESENT...AND THE POLEWARD\r\nOUTFLOW EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY 24 HOURS...THERE APPEARS TO BE NO\r\nPHYSICAL REASONS WHY BEATRIZ SHOULD NOT CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFY\r\nDURING THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE AND INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN\r\nNORMAL RATE OF INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 10 KT WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 29C. BEYOND 48 HOURS...BEATRIZ IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 22-24C AND ALSO\r\nMOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 15.7N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 16.6N 103.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 17.6N 104.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 18.7N 104.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 20.2N 109.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 20.2N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 20 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF BEATRIZ CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A\r\nLARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO-LIKE FEATURE...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND THE FIRST\r\nFEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER AMORPHOUS-LOOKING CLOUD PATTERN.\r\nOVERALL...THE CYCLONE STILL APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON\r\nTHE 1200 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME.  AFTER 48 HOURS\r\nBEATRIZ SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM CLOSELY AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED\r\nCLOSER TO THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS AND A BIT NORTH OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 320/8...BUT\r\nREMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  BEATRIZ IS GAINING LATITUDE DUE TO\r\nWEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AS A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...THE\r\nRIDGE WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AND SHOULD RESULT IN BEATRIZ TURNING \r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST BY 72 HOURS. \r\nTHE DETAILS OF THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN WILL BE\r\nCRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF BEATRIZ COMES TO\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER 72 HOURS...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  DESPITE THE MORE NORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...MUCH\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS HEAVILY ON CONTINUITY AND IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE BEATRIZ LATER TODAY...AND PROVIDE VALUABLE INFORMATION\r\nON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.  CONDITIONS ALONG\r\nTHE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE\r\nLATER TODAY.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THOSE\r\nAREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 16.3N 102.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 17.1N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 18.1N 104.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 19.8N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 20.0N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT BEATRIZ\r\nIS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  A BLEND OF THE 850-MB FLIGHT\r\nLEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 74 KT AND DROPSONDE DATA WERE USED TO SET THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH WELL-\r\nESTABLISHED OUTFLOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nBEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A BROAD PEAK OF 80 KT FROM 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...A LITTLE ABOVE BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM. AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS BEATRIZ MOVES OVER\r\nMUCH COOLER WATERS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.  IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE\r\nPERIOD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW TOWARD 330/7.  THE\r\nOVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  BEATRIZ IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME THE\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL TURN BEATRIZ BACK TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...AND AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT SHOULD TURN\r\nWESTWARD IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY DAY 3.  THIS WESTWARD MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  DESPITE\r\nTHE FACT THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...IT\r\nIS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS EXTEND OVER A\r\nLARGE AREA AND ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCOULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE WARNING AREA. \r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON DATA\r\nFROM THE AIRCRAFT.  THE RADIUS OF 12-FOOT SEAS WERE ALSO EXPANDED\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON DATA FROM THE\r\nJASON ALTIMETER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 17.0N 103.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 17.6N 103.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 18.6N 104.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 19.4N 105.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 20.0N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 20.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 20.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-06-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 20 2011\r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN 360 DEGREES AROUND THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER.  GIVEN THAT THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THIS INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WARRANTS AN UPGRADE TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.  IF THE CENTER DOES NOT CROSS THE COAST...THE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO...HOWEVER...IS FOR BEATRIZ\r\nTO MOVE INLAND...IN WHICH CASE CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO WOULD BE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST PRESUMES THE FORMER SCENARIO AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL SUBSTANTIALLY SO RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nBEATRIZ HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER THIS EVENING AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF BEATRIZ IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL.  AS\r\nTHE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE LEFT.  BY DAY\r\n4...THE WEAKENED CYCLONE WILL LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A\r\nCONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TRACKS...AND THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nTRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 18.0N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 18.6N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 19.5N 105.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 20.0N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 20.2N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 20.5N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 20.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-06-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BEATRIZ HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE...A FEATURE THAT ALSO MADE A\r\nSHORT-LIVED APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM SAB AND 77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...WITH AUTOMATED ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN OF\r\n90 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...\r\nAND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  CLOUD TOPS IN THE EYEWALL ARE\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C...AND THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL\r\nDIRECTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 330/10. BEATRIZ IS HEADING FOR A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING NORTH OF BEATRIZ. THIS\r\nEVOLUTION SHOULD GRADUALLY CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nLEFT...WITH A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK EXPECTED BY 48 HR.\r\nHOWEVER...BEFORE THIS TURN OCCURS...THE CENTER IS LIKELY TO PASS\r\nOVER OR NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO\r\nCORRIENTES. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...AND\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS COULD REACH 85-90 KT BEFORE THE CENTER INTERACTS\r\nWITH THE COAST OF MEXICO.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF LAND\r\nINTERACTION AND A FORECAST TRACK OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE BEATRIZ TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL NOT CAUSE A RAPID\r\nDISINTEGRATION...WITH THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY DYING OUT OVER THE\r\nCOLDER WATER WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION IS SERIOUSLY DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINS\r\nOF WESTERN MEXICO.  IF THIS OCCURS...BEATRIZ WOULD WEAKEN FASTER\r\nAND DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 18.8N 104.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 19.5N 105.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 20.4N 106.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 20.7N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 20.9N 109.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 21.0N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 21.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-06-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BEATRIZ MOVED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nCAUSED SOME WEAKENING.  THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DECREASED\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND TOPS HAVE WARMED AS WELL.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 1200 UTC\r\nDVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE GENEROUS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WITH RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED BEYOND THAT TIME AS BEATRIZ\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 25C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS.  ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.  BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\n...WHICH TAKES BEATRIZ OVER COOLER WATER MORE QUICKLY...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES DECREASE FASTER THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/12...AS BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nTURNED TOWARD THE LEFT AND INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS.  IN FACT...THE ACTUAL POSITION COULD BE EVEN A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER TO THE LEFT THAN THE CURRENT ESTIMATE.  A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS\r\nBEATRIZ RAPIDLY BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TOWARD THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF\r\nTHE SHALLOW BAM AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 19.6N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 20.3N 106.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 20.8N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 21.1N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 21.2N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 21.3N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-06-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF BEATRIZ ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME VERY \r\nRAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED SUBSTANTIALLY.  BEATRIZ HAS LIKELY WEAKENED DUE TO LAND\r\nINTERACTION EARLIER TODAY AND INGESTION OF DRY STABLE AIR\r\nORIGINATING FROM MUCH COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-26C WATERS\r\nIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...OR EARLIER IF THE\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION LOSES DEFINITION.  \r\n \r\nAS THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF BEATRIZ HAS DISINTEGRATED...THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE CURRENT POSITION IS\r\nWELL TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/10.  THE LOW-CONFIDENCE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CURRENT MOTION AND THE MEDIUM\r\nAND SHALLOW BAM MODELS.  \r\n\r\nEVEN AS BEATRIZ HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED AWAY FROM THE COAST...MOIST\r\nSOUTHERLY INFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN \r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 19.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 19.1N 107.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 19.1N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 19.1N 110.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 19.1N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-06-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP022011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 21 2011\r\n \r\nAPPARENTLY...THE INTERACTION OF BEATRIZ WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN\r\nOF MEXICO EARLY TODAY HAS DEALT A LETHAL BLOW TO THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND MIDDAY INDICATED THAT THERE WAS\r\nNO LONGER A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THAT\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS HAD DECREASED EVEN FASTER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED. \r\nTHE SYSTEM ALSO HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 10 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  THEREFORE...BEATRIZ HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS IS THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ\r\nIS CHARACTERIZED BY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE AIR...REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 19.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE STRONG\r\nCONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION DUE\r\nTO EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE OUTFLOW IS STILL LIMITED TO THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE\r\nFOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER\r\nWATER IN TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nUNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290/11. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A\r\nPERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH EXTENDING FROM MEXICO WESTWARD...AND\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH SHOWS A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.8N 101.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 15.3N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 16.3N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 17.0N 107.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 19.0N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nBECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED NEAR\r\nOR UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE OVERCAST. THE OUTFLOW HAS ALSO\r\nEXPANDED TO THE SOUTH...WEST...AND NORTH. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...AND BASED ON THE\r\nRECENT EVOLUTION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO\r\nBE APPROACHING  TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR A\r\nLITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION AND HIGHER T-NUMBERS TO UPGRADE THE\r\nSYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE HAS LESS THAN A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSOME BEFORE MOVING OVER AN AREA OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD WATER SOUTH OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.    \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT\r\n12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN THE RIDGE IN PLACE...SUGGESTING\r\nA CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. DUE TO THE NORTHWARD COMPONENT INDICATED BY THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR...THE LATEST CONSENSUS SHOWS A MORE NORTHWEST \r\nTRACK IN THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL HAVE WEAKENED TO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATERS BY\r\nTHEN...AND MOST LIKELY WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 15.4N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 16.0N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 16.8N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 17.5N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 18.0N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 20.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2011\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE CLOUD PATTERN WENT\r\nTHROUGH A BRIEF BURSTING PHASE EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT HAS\r\nSINCE DECREASED IN BOTH VERTICAL EXTENT AND AREAL COVERAGE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T3.0/45 KT AND\r\nT2.5/35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE T2.9/43 KT.\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER\r\nIS SHEARED AT LEAST 45 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN INCREASED TO\r\n35 KT DESPITE THE HIGHER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH STILL MAKES\r\nTHE CYCLONE THE THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT RESTRICTED\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/12 IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION...\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE FIXES.\r\nCALVIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP-LAYER\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nBASICALLY MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE RIDGE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD KEEP CALVIN MOVING IN\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFDN MODELS TAKE THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKENING RIDGE BY 36 HOURS...WHICH\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. THESE\r\nMODELS ARE...THEREFORE...CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. BY 72\r\nHOURS...CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER 23C SSTS...AND BE STEERED MORE\r\nWESTWARD BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20 KT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO NEAR\r\n10 KT BY 24-36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN. HOWEVER...THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS...AT WHICH\r\nTIME CALVIN IS FORECAST TO BE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 16.0N 104.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 16.6N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 17.4N 107.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 18.5N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 19.4N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CALVIN HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE AREA OF\r\nCOLD CONVECTIVE TOPS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE SHAPE\r\nOF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS APPEARS DEFORMED.  NEVERTHELESS...THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THAN\r\nBEFORE...IN ADDITION TO THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY BETTER\r\nDEFINED CURVED BANDING FEATURES.  A 0344 UTC ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED\r\nSEVERAL BELIEVABLE WIND VECTORS OF AT LEAST 40 KT.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 3.0 FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB AND THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS.  ALTHOUGH CALVIN REMAINS IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nDECREASE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AT THE SAME TIME...\r\nCALVIN WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM 28-29C WATERS AND TOWARD A REGION OF\r\nSHARPLY LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-\r\nTERM...FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nINTENSITY IS LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF\r\nLGEM AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS IVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO DETERMINE.  BASED UPON A BLEND OF\r\nFIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/13. CALVIN SHOULD BE STEERED ON A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN\r\nPLAINS WESTWARD TO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  DURING THIS\r\nTIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DECELERATE AS IT WEAKENS\r\nAND BECOMES SHALLOWER...STEERED BY THE RELATIVELY SLOWER LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW.   ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOUTHWARD\r\nTREND AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSE TO\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 16.3N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 16.7N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 17.3N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 17.9N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 18.5N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 20.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF CALVIN HAS IMPROVED AS AN EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE IS EVIDENT FROM BOTH THE 1136Z SSMI IMAGERY AND THE FIRST\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS\r\nA 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS A\r\n3.7...OR 59 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. WITH IMPROVED SUBSEQUENT\r\nORGANIZATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. CALVIN HAS A\r\nLIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AS IT IS ABOUT TO REACH\r\nTHE COOL SSTS AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SO\r\nDESPITE THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO RELAX OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nAS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM...AND TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCALVIN HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ABOUT\r\n15 KT...PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...CALVIN SHOULD SLOW AND\r\nMOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE RIDGE. AFTER TWO DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE GFDN\r\nMODEL...WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD POSITION THAN ANTICIPATED\r\nAT THE INITIAL TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED UPON A CIRA\r\nANALYSIS OF THE 0933Z AMSU PASS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 16.2N 107.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.6N 109.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 17.2N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 17.7N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 18.3N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Calvin","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT WAS ONE OR TWO\r\nHOURS AGO...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS MICROWAVE DATA\r\nHAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nCLOUD PATTERN AND THE INCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING...CALVIN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEGUN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN HAS REACHED ITS PEAK\r\nINTENSITY AND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR\r\nCALVIN TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nCALVIN HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR\r\n275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO\r\nCHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...CALVIN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WHICH WILL PROBABLY\r\nBEGIN TO MEANDER EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING CALVIN ON A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BUT VARY\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BY THEN CALVIN\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.4N 110.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 19.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Calvin","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011\r\n \r\nRECENT CONVENTIONAL AND EARLIER MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURES MAY HAVE\r\nFINALLY BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED. IN ADDITION...A WARM SPOT HAS\r\nDEVELOPED NEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE SMALLER BUT BETTER-DEFINED\r\nCDO CLOUD PATTERN...SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF A MORE VERTICAL EYE\r\nSTRUCTURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/10...BUT THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY\r\nMOTION. CALVIN HAS WOBBLED TO THE RIGHT A LITTLE BIT...PROBABLY AS\r\nA RESULT OF THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-LEVEL EYES BECOMING VERTICALLY\r\nALIGNED. AS A RESULT...CALVIN IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO A MORE\r\nWESTERLY BASE COURSE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO THE\r\nSTRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP CALVIN MOVING IN A\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-24C SSTS. AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES\r\nVERTICALLY SHALLOW...IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY AS IT\r\nMOVES INTO A REGION OF ABNORMALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND EXPANDED IN ALL QUADRANTS...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS ABATED SOMEWHAT.\r\nTHEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 6\r\nHOURS OR SO SINCE CALVIN WILL STILL BE OVER AT LEAST 26C SSTS.\r\nHOWEVER...BY 12 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATER AND ALSO BEGIN INGESTING MORE STABLE AIR AS INDICATED BY A\r\nLARGE FIELD OF LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS LOCATED JUST WEST OF\r\nCALVIN. AS A RESULT OF THE POOR OCEANIC AND THERMODYNAMIC\r\nCONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE HURRICANE...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nAND AT A FASTER RATE THAN INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.6N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 17.0N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 17.5N 112.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 17.9N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 18.4N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 19.3N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Calvin","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CALVIN HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nRAGGED AND IRREGULARLY SHAPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING.  UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS\r\nMODEL ANALYSES ALSO INDICATE MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING TO\r\nAFFECT CALVIN...AND THE WESTWARD DISPLACEMENT OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS RELATIVE TO THE CENTER IN CONVENTIONAL AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SEEMS TO CONFIRM THIS.  BASED UPON THE SLIGHTLY\r\nDEGRADED SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND\r\nCI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65\r\nKT.  CALVIN HAS ALREADY REACHED A STRONG GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 25C AFTER 24\r\nHOURS. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A MORE STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE\r\nAND A CONTINUATION OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY\r\nWEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATION WITHIN\r\n96 HOURS. THIS REASONING IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWHICH IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF DYNAMICAL\r\nAND STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT CALVIN HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN....AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER CALVIN ON A GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AS CALVIN BECOMES\r\nAN INCREASINGLY SHALLOW SYSTEM AFTER THAT...IT WILL DECOUPLE FROM\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER FLOW AND DECELERATE FURTHER AS IT ENCOUNTERS WEAKER\r\nLOW-LEVEL WINDS. THE NEW FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII IN ALL QUADRANTS WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 0505 UTC\r\nASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 16.9N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 17.3N 111.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 17.7N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 18.2N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 18.7N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 19.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011\r\n \r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND NOW CONSISTS\r\nOF A SHAPELESS AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO\r\n50 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS...THE T-NUMBERS \r\nSUGGEST A STRONGER CYCLONE. CALVIN IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS...SO\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nCALVIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN A DAY OR\r\nSO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND BE STEERED\r\nBY THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CALVIN OR ITS REMNANTS WILL PROBABLY\r\nDRIFT WESTWARD OR MEANDER UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 17.1N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 17.5N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CALVIN CONTINUES\r\nTO WEAKEN QUICKLY...WITH THE CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A\r\nDIMINISHING AREA OF CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40\r\nKT USING A BLEND OF DVORAK CI AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND A 1745 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF 35-40\r\nKT WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS CALVIN BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY TOMORROW IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 48 TO 72\r\nHOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES\r\nAT 8 KNOTS.  AS CALVIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...IT WILL BE STEERED\r\nGENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AFTER ADJUSTING FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON 09/1734Z\r\nASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 17.4N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 17.8N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 18.8N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 19.3N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Calvin","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP032011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2011\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT CALVIN HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE. THERE HAS BEEN NO ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR NEARLY 9 HOURS NOW...AND A\r\n09/2037Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD\r\nDISSIPATED WITH ONLY A WEAK WARM CORE REMAINING NEAR THE 500 MB\r\nLEVEL. ALTHOUGH A SMALL THUNDERSTORM WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS\r\nRECENTLY DEVELOPED ABOUT 70 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...THIS\r\nCONVECTION IS LIKELY NOT PROVIDING ANY POSITIVE FEEDBACK ON THE\r\nINNER CORE OF THE LOW. AS A RESULT...CALVIN HAS BEEN DECLARED A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN EXPECTED SPINDOWN OF 35-40 KT WINDS\r\nTHAT WERE NOTED IN AN EARLIER 09/1734Z ASCAT SATELLITE OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER COLDER WATER FOR THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS AS THE CIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. GIVEN MUCH COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE\r\nAIR AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW...REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS UNLIKELY.\r\n\r\n12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED SINCE CALVIN ONLY RECENTLY LOST\r\nITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT WILL TAKE A FEW MORE\r\nHOURS FOR THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON CALVIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 17.7N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 18.0N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 18.5N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 19.0N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 19.5N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME\r\nSUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA FOR THIS SYSTEM TO\r\nBE DESIGNATED AS THE FOURTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON.\r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE ONLY\r\nT1.5/25 KT...NHC ADT ESTIMATES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH. IN ADDITION...SHIP WDE5381 LOCATED ABOUT 70 NMI\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED AN EAST WIND OF 31 KT AT 06Z.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A CONSERVATIVE 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11. AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE LOCATED ACROSS MOST OF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nARE FORECASTING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO ERODE AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER...THESE APPEAR TO BE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF THIS BROAD HEAT-WAVE DOME OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH\r\nOF THE GFDL/HWRF TRACKS AFTER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS...AND IS SIMILAR\r\nTO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION\r\nTHAT IS INDICATIVE OF A DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM. MICROWAVE AND\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...PLUS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP\r\nREPORT...ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS A FAIRLY TIGHT INNER\r\nCORE WIND FIELD. ALL OF THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. HOWEVER...AN INHIBITING\r\nFACTOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MODERATE NORTHERLY SHEAR...SO ONLY\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. BY 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE TO NEAR 5 KT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nAND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS THROUGH 96 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE OVER THE COLD WATER TROPICAL CYCLONE GRAVEYARD SITUATED\r\nWEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 10.6N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 10.7N  93.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 11.3N  95.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 12.3N  98.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 13.6N 101.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 18.8N 110.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011\r\n \r\nDORA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE MODEST NORTHERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE LARGE CURVED\r\nBAND THAT NOW WRAPS ALMOST THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T2.5/35\r\nKT AND T2.0/30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE\r\nT2.5/35 KT. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1610Z INDICATED A COUPLE\r\nOF 40-KT WIND VECTORS WITHIN A LARGE FIELD OF 34-KT WINDS...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12. DORA HAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT\r\nTHIS MEAN MOTION AS SMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND\r\nTHE MEAN CENTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO CONTINUE MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS DORA IS STEERED BY THE LARGE AND\r\nSTRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nHOWEVER...THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY ERODE LIKE THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. AS A RESULT...THE CENTER OF\r\nDORA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE INNER CORE\r\nWIND FIELD HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS THE LAST OF MULTIPLE\r\nSMALLER CIRCULATIONS HAS MERGED INTO THE MAIN LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS DORA PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER\r\nWATER...A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST THROUGH\r\n72-84 HOURS...AFTER WHICH RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATER WEST OF 110W LONGITUDE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND REMAINS WELL ABOVE ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE 1610Z ASCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 10.7N  92.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 11.1N  94.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 11.9N  97.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 13.0N 100.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 14.3N 102.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 17.0N 107.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 18.7N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 20.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DORA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE IN\r\nORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS INCREASED\r\nSINCE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A CDO APPEARS TO BE FORMING.  RECENT 37\r\nGHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW INCREASED INNER-CORE\r\nSTRUCTURE WITH THE BEGINNINGS OF A LOW-LEVEL RING FEATURE. THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 3.0 AND 2.5...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 3.0.  THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS BASED ON THE TAFB AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS.\r\nMYSTERIOUSLY...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN DORA AS\r\nMUCH AS I WOULD EXPECT.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF AROUND 90 KT IN 48-60 HOURS WHILE THE GFDL/HWRF ARE\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24-36 AND IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT TO THE MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...DORA\r\nWILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12.  THE LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD KEEP DORA ON A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nHEADING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nDORA TO SLOW DOWN AND BEGIN TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AT DAYS 3-5 WHICH REQUIRED A SMALL\r\nEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT HAVE RECENTLY EXHIBITED A RIGHT-OF-TRACK\r\nBIAS FOR SYSTEMS SOUTH OF MEXICO.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS LEFT OF TVCN AND CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED A 0000 UTC SHIP\r\nOBSERVATION TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 11.1N  94.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 11.6N  96.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 12.5N  98.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 13.6N 101.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 14.9N 103.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 17.3N 107.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 21.0N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF DORA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...A SSMIS\r\nPASS AT 0242 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE INNER-CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 55 KT BASED ON A\r\nDVORAK CI-NUMBER OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES OF 50\r\nTO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nDORA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE AND\r\nPOTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY TRACK\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS AS THE HIGH SLOWLY WEAKENS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES PUSHES THE RIDGE EASTWARD. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...KEEPING THE CENTER\r\nOF DORA OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF DORA APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAROUND 29C AND IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION...\r\nTHE MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LESSEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DORA TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH LATER TODAY AND TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS. STEADY OR\r\nEVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AS DORA\r\nMOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 11.4N  95.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 12.1N  98.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 13.3N 100.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 14.5N 103.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 15.7N 105.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 19.5N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 21.5N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DORA IS STRENGTHENING.  THE INFRARED\r\nAND VISIBLE CHANNELS BOTH SUGGEST THAT A RAGGED EYE IS ATTEMPTING\r\nTO FORM...WITH A SIMILAR STRUCTURE NOTED ON MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 60 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH RECENT\r\nTREND OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION.  CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nFORECAST TO FORM NEAR DORA AND VERY WARM SSTS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PROMOTE CONSIDERABLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION. \r\nIN ABOUT THREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND BEGIN A\r\nPRECIPITOUS DECLINE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAT ABOUT 13 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AFTER TODAY DUE TO THE\r\nWEAKENING OF A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  IN A\r\nFEW DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MORE TO THE\r\nEAST...WHICH COULD ALLOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  GUIDANCE IS\r\nGENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF DO SHOW A SLIGHT THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG\r\nRANGE.  FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY WITH THE BULK OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE OF MEXICO...AND IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AS DORA PASSES.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT TRACK\r\nAND SIZE FORECAST DOES NOT WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF WATCHES AND/OR\r\nWARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 11.9N  97.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 12.6N  99.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 13.7N 101.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 15.0N 104.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 18.1N 108.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 22.0N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n \r\nDORA IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE\r\nOCCASIONALLY SHOWED AN EYE TRYING TO FORM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA INDICATES ANY INNER CORE REMAIN\r\nDISORGANIZED.  SINCE THERE ARE NO ESTIMATES OF THIS SYSTEM AS A\r\nHURRICANE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 60 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS THERE IS PLENTY OF HIGH SSTS AND LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS IN ITS\r\nPATH.  RAPID INTENSIFICATION REMAINS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...\r\nESPECIALLY IF THE INNER CORE CAN BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THE NHC\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST REMAINS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE GFDL MODEL PREDICTION.  IN ABOUT\r\nTHREE DAYS...DORA SHOULD REACH COOLER WATER...AND A RAPID WEAKENING\r\nIS LIKELY.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF DORA WAS A BIT FARTHER\r\nNORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...RESULTING IN AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n295/15...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BASICALLY MOVE PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK MODELS IS\r\nVERY SMALL DURING THAT TIME AS THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND A RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTH AMERICA REMAIN STRONG. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS...UKMET AND\r\nHWRF...SHOW DORA AS A THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN THE LONG RANGE.\r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OFFSHORE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT...MOSTLY\r\nDUE TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST IN THE LONG RANGE. \r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SOME\r\nCHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO AS DORA PASSES.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT MODEL\r\nAGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH IS NOT BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 12.8N  98.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 13.7N 100.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 14.9N 103.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 16.1N 105.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 17.1N 106.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 19.1N 109.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 21.0N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2011\r\n\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...A RAGGED EYE BECAME APPARENT IN\r\nINFRARED AND LATE-AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  RECENT \r\nAMSR-E AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A BROKEN EYEWALL \r\nTHAT APPEARS TO BE CONTRACTING.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 65 KT.  THEREFORE...DORA\r\nIS UPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE...THE FOURTH OF THE 2011 EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS IT TRAVERSES WARM WATER AND REMAINS IN A LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS NHC DISCUSSION...RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS\r\nSHOWING ABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN AT THE\r\nUPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE.  RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...AS DORA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nDORA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nLARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INCREASES WITH SEVERAL\r\nMODELS SHOWING A POTENTIAL THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT RUNS OF THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS HAVE ALL SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE.  IN RESPONSE...THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS\r\nALSO BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.    \r\n\r\nTHE CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE INCREASED ALONG\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM LAZARO\r\nCARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 13.4N  99.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 14.4N 101.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 16.8N 105.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 17.9N 107.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nWHILE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT IN RECENT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY\r\n...THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF DORA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nTO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF\r\n77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB AT 0600 UTC.  DORA WILL BE IN  \r\nAN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE\r\nNEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH VERY WARM SSTS AND SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT\r\nOR LESS.  AFTER THAT TIME...DORA WILL MOVE ACROSS A SHARP SST\r\nGRADIENT INTO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL MODEL...AND SHOWS\r\nA PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT IN 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS\r\n...AS DORA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND\r\nMOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DORA WILL GRADUALLY\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  MUCH OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE LEFT...INCLUDING\r\nTHE GFS...GFDL....AND HWRF MODELS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.  GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE EXTENT OF 34-KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PART OF THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.  BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST NHC\r\nFORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS A 35 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA.  DORA\r\nCOULD ALSO THREATEN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 60 TO\r\n72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 14.1N 101.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 15.1N 103.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 16.4N 105.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 17.5N 107.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 18.6N 108.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 20.5N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nDORA ALONG WITH PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURES.  ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS\r\nNOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE\r\nINNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nINCREASING...AND THE WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 80 KT.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING STEADILY DURING ITS\r\nLIFETIME...IT HAS HAD SOME TROUBLE DEVELOPING AN INNER CORE. \r\nPERHAPS THIS IS DUE TO SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR AS INDICATED BY LOCAL\r\nNHC SHEAR DIAGNOSTICS.  WHATEVER THE CASE...AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW\r\nWEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...DORA SHOULD INTENSIFY...AND\r\nCOULD RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL...SHOWING THIS SYSTEM PEAKING IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  A RAPID DECLINE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nLIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY AS DORA MOVES ACROSS RATHER COLD WATERS\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS OVER WATERS LESS THAN 21C.  \r\n\r\nDORA CONTINUES SPEEDING ALONG TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT.  \r\nA STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE DORA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...JUST A SMIDGE FASTER.  IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...THERE\r\nREMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF A NARROW RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN DORA AND A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nMODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING A STRONGER RIDGE...CAUSING A LEFTWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nMOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 14.9N 103.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 15.9N 104.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 18.3N 108.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 19.3N 109.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 20.8N 111.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nDORA IS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING.  RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT AN EYE HAS FORMED WITH INTENSE CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL\r\nAND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF MESOVORTICES WITHIN THE EYE.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY...WITH\r\nTHE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AT 115 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE\r\nDATA GIVES AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING DORA THE SECOND\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS SOLIDIFIED...DORA WILL PROBABLY\r\nINTENSIFY AT A RAPID RATE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO CONDUCIVE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.   ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE NOW SHOW\r\nDORA PEAKING NEAR OR AT CATEGORY 4 STATUS TOMORROW.  IN FACT THE\r\nSHIP RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX INDICATES A 46 PERCENT CHANCE OF A\r\n40 KT INCREASE WITHIN 24 HOURS...A RATHER HIGH VALUE. FROM THE 1800\r\nUTC ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 95 KT...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVE BUT STILL INDICATE A 24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...SSTS FALL QUITE RAPIDLY...AND\r\nSO SHOULD THE WINDS OF DORA.  THE LATER PART OF THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND DORA SHOULD BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL BETWEEN DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS SLOWED A BIT AND IS MOVING 295/14.  A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF A RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS...SAVE THE\r\nHWRF...KEEP DORA WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND ACTUALLY\r\nTURN THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.\r\nTHE OVERALL TRACK ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLONGER RANGE...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN MOVED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 15.5N 104.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 16.5N 105.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 17.7N 107.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 18.7N 108.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2011\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS VERY DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 25-30 N MI-WIDE\r\nEYE THAT HAS WARMED AND BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED.  OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO T6.2.  THE\r\nMOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF T5.5 WERE A LITTLE LOWER\r\nTHAN THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS...BECAUSE THE COLDEST RING OF CONVECTION\r\nAROUND THE EYE ON THE 2345 UTC SATELLITE IMAGE HAD A FEW BREAKS.\r\nBASED ON THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 115 KT.\r\n \r\nDORA HAS TIME FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AS IT WILL REMAIN\r\nOVER 28-29 DEGREE CELSIUS SSTS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE UPPER END\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE AND CALLS FOR PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN BETWEEN 24 AND 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER\r\nDECREASING SSTS.  A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER\r\nTWO DAYS AS DORA EXPLORES THE COLDER WATERS OF THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nWITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR VERY SOON AS THE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHIFTS EASTWARD AND WEAKENS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...DORA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A HEADING BETWEEN\r\nNORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE\r\nSOME CONSISTENCY ISSUES WITH NOTABLE EAST-WEST SHIFTS OCCURRING\r\nFROM RUN TO RUN DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE\r\nSHIFTED BACK EASTWARD...BUT FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN\r\nCONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITHIN THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 16.0N 105.4W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 17.0N 106.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 18.2N 108.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 19.1N 109.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 19.9N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 25.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nDORA HAS TAKEN ON THE APPEARANCE OF AN ANNUAL HURRICANE DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH BANDING FEATURES DIMINISHING AND THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN NOW MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CIRCULAR EYE.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF\r\n115 KT...BUT SINCE THEN CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE COOLED AND\r\nTHE LATEST OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6\r\nTO 12 HOURS...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES SLIDES EASTWARD.  THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE FOR THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD. BEYOND 3 DAYS...MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.  DORA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IDEAL FOR DORA...WITH VERY\r\nLIGHT SHEAR...A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nNEAR 30C.  THESE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW DORA TO STRENGTHEN SOME\r\nMORE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE\r\nGRADIENT...CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 24-36 HOURS AND THE 22C\r\nISOTHERM IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THEREFORE...RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nTO COMMENCE ON FRIDAY...AND DORA IS NOW EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 16.6N 106.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 17.5N 107.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 18.6N 108.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 19.5N 109.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 20.3N 111.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 21.9N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 23.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z 25.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL OF DORA HAS\r\nBECOME MORE INTENSE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE EYE\r\nSTAYING MOSTLY CLEAR. VISIBLE PICTURES ARE RATHER SPECTACULAR WITH\r\nMESOVORTICES NOTED WITHIN THE DISTINCT EYE. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE\r\nBETWEEN 127-140 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 135 KT.\r\nDORA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A DECLINE IN STRENGTH LATER TODAY AS IT\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE INTO A BIT COOLER WATERS.  THE WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBECOME RATHER RAPID BY LATE TOMORROW DUE TO MUCH COLDER WATERS AND\r\nSOME MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/11.  DORA SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY LOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE RIDGE\r\nSTRENGTH AFTER THAT TIME...AND CONSEQUENTLY THERE IS SOME\r\nDISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK CONTINUES OR DORA\r\nBENDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE GUIDANCE HAS MADE ANOTHER SMALL\r\nSHIFT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LONGER-RANGE...THOUGH EVERY RELIABLE\r\nMODEL STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL AWAY FROM BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 17.1N 106.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 18.1N 108.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 19.1N 109.2W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 20.0N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 20.8N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nWHILE THE EYE OF DORA REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR...CONVECTION IN THE\r\nEYEWALL HAS WEAKENED SOME DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A BLEND\r\nOF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GIVES A LOWER INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 130\r\nKT. THE HURRICANE HAS LIKELY PEAKED AS IT IS CROSSING INTO SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND THE OUTFLOW PATTERN SUGGESTS THAT NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS AFFECTING THE OUTER PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH TONIGHT...AND A RAPID DECLINE BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE\r\nWEEKEND DUE TO AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND SSTS\r\nDROPPING BELOW 26C.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS SYSTEM\r\nIS LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO IT PASSING\r\nOVER WATERS NEAR 21C.\r\n \r\nDORA HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IS MOVING\r\n310/8.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nTHE STORM IS STEERED BY A RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME\r\nDIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AFTER THAT TIME WITH SOME OF THE\r\nMODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...CONTINUING THE NORTHWESTWARD COURSE\r\nWHILE OTHERS...LIKE THE ECMWF...SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  A CROSS-SECTION OF THE GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF\r\nINDICATES THE LATTER MODEL HAS A DEEPER VORTEX THAT WOULD RESPOND\r\nMORE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP NEAR DORA IN A DAY OR SO.  THE NHC TRACK WILL STAY ON THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN DEFERENCE TO THE ECMWF\r\nMODEL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA DUE TO THE FORECAST PROXIMITY OF THE 34 KT WIND RADII\r\nAND THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NHC FORECAST SHIFTING A BIT CLOSER TO\r\nBAJA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 17.7N 107.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 18.5N 108.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 19.5N 109.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 20.3N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 21.2N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 23.0N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 24.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1800Z 26.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2011\r\n \r\nA FEW HOURS AGO...THE EYE OF DORA ABRUPTLY DISAPPEARED ON\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND DEEP CONVECTION BECAME MUCH LESS\r\nSYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CENTER.  THIS INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING\r\nOF THE HURRICANE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS\r\nARE 5.5 AND 6.5 RESPECTIVELY FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  USING A BLEND\r\nOF THESE NUMBERS GIVES A RATHER UNCERTAIN WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF\r\n110 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS BEGINNING TO CROSS THE SST GRADIENT AND\r\nIS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS...ALTHOUGH IT IS CURRENTLY OVER WATERS\r\nOF ABOUT 28 DEGREES CELSIUS.  SOME OF THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE\r\nTO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  AN EVEN MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY TO COMMENCE AS SOON AS DORA TRAVERSES MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL...LGEM...GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...315/8...IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATES.  DORA IS BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THIS REGIME IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS RATHER SMALL SHIFT IN THE NHC\r\nTRACK NOW TAKES DORA NEAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA TO BRING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THAT AREA. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY..THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 18.3N 108.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 20.0N 110.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 21.1N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 22.0N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 26.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z 27.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON HURRICANE DORA\r\nTHIS MORNING.  WHAT WAS ONCE...JUST A FEW HOURS AGO...A WARM EYE\r\nSURROUNDED BY QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS IS NOW A PARTIALLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTEX WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FOUND ONLY IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  RAW DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND ADT\r\nHAVE ALL PLUMMETED.  ASSUMING THAT IT TAKES SOME LAG TIME FOR THE\r\nWINDS TO WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...THE INTENSITY\r\nIS ANALYZED AT 90 KT...20 KT WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY...DORA WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH COLD SSTS AND A STABLE ATMOSPHERE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WITHIN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE TRAVERSING OVER 23C WATER AND MOVING THROUGH AN ATMOSPHERE THAT\r\nWILL LIKELY NOT ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LGEM-SHIPS STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS...BUT\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY BELOW THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE\r\nCONTINUED RAPID WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE.  THIS SAME FEATURE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE STEERING DORA NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WEAKENING...AMSU AND ASCAT SATELLITE PASSES\r\nINDICATE THAT DORA EXHIBITS A SUBSTANTIALLY SMALLER 34-KT WIND\r\nRADII THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.  THIS SUGGESTS A DIMINISHED RISK OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE REDUCED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 18.9N 108.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 20.5N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 21.4N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 22.5N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 24.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 26.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nDORA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  WHILE CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH ALMOST\r\nOF THE CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77-82 KT FROM SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES...THOUGH THE DATA T-NUMBERS ARE QUITE A\r\nBIT LOWER.  THE WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nA NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT A RESEARCH MISSION\r\nINTO DORA LATER TODAY TO OBTAIN A BETTER WIND ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THAT UPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE\r\nCONTINUING TO CAUSE SHEAR ON DORA.  ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS DO\r\nWEAKEN THIS FLOW SOMEWHAT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...DORA WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER SSTS AND PROBABLY WILL NOT GET A CHANCE TO TAKE\r\nADVANTAGE OF THE DECREASED SHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nSPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS...CALLING FOR STEADY WEAKENING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  DORA WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 21C IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...\r\nLIKELY CAUSING ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DISAPPEAR AND FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 KT ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE.  WHILE THERE IS AN\r\nOCCASIONAL MODEL OUTLIER TAKING DORA CLOSER TO BAJA...THE MAJORITY\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nSEVERALS.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA IS DECREASING...IT IS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING UP FOR NOW UNTIL WE ARE MORE CONFIDENT OF THESE WINDS\r\nSTAYING OFFSHORE.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 19.3N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 20.0N 110.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 21.0N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 23.1N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE SIGNATURE OF DORA HAS DEGRADED DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 70 KT...IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KT\r\nFROM TAFB/SAB.  A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST PASSED THROUGH\r\nTHE CENTER OF DORA A FEW MINUTES AGO...AND WILL BE IN THE STORM FOR\r\nANOTHER HOUR OR TWO.  THEY HAVE NOT COMPLETED ENOUGH OF THE PATTERN\r\nTO ESTABLISH WHETHER DORA IS STILL A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM INTO MUCH COOLER WATERS.\r\nWITH SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS\r\nEXPECTED...A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF DORA IS FORECAST. DORA SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS...AND\r\nCOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS\r\nLIKELY IN 36 TO 48 HOURS OVER THE COLD WATERS WEST OF BAJA.\r\n \r\nAN UNCERTAIN ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/7.  MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  THEREAFTER...SOME OF THE MODELS WANT TO BEND DORA...OR OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...TOWARD BAJA DUE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE...WHILE OTHERS BASICALLY CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD AN EXCELLENT PERFORMANCE FOR THIS\r\nSTORM...AND SINCE THESE MODELS KEEP DORA AWAY FROM THE\r\nCOAST...THE NEW NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THE IDEA OF A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 19.8N 109.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 21.4N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 22.4N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 27.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2011\r\n \r\nA NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA LATE THIS AFTERNOON\r\nFOUND THAT THE CYCLONE WAS NO LONGER A HURRICANE...WITH PEAK 850 MB\r\nWINDS OF 69 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 56 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KT...WHICH ALSO\r\nMATCHES AN AVERAGE OF THE CI INTENSITIES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA WERE ALSO VERY USEFUL IN DETERMINING THE EXTENT OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.  OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS DORA\r\nMOVES OVER ROUGHLY 26C WATERS...AND A COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND A TRACK OVER COOLER WATERS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND OBSERVED TODAY.  IN ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO DORA\r\nSHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 22C WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THERE HAS\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...AS WELL AS\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...WILL WORK TO\r\nPREVENT DORA FROM APPROACHING THE BAJA PENINSULA AS LONG AS THE\r\nSTORM MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERTICALLY COHERENT\r\nCIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nCURRENTLY PROGGED TO PASS WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE WARNING AREA...IT\r\nSEEMS PRUDENT TO LEAVE THE WARNING IN PLACE FOR NOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 20.4N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 21.1N 111.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 22.1N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 23.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 26.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 27.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS DUE TO\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE\r\nCYCLONE. AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 0516Z ALSO INDICATED THAT 34-KT WINDS\r\nHAVE RETRACTED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF DORA IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/8...AND LEANS HEAVILY TOWARD\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. DORA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN AND BECOME MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND BE STEERED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN U.S.\r\nAND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT RAPID DEMISE OF CONVECTION ANYWHERE WITHIN THE\r\nCIRCULATION SUGGESTS THAT DORA IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD. MODERATE\r\nTO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TAKES IT TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL ALSO RESULT IN DORA MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 23C...WHICH WILL FURTHER ACT\r\nTO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. AS A RESULT...DORA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO\r\nA NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE RECENT AND EXPECTED RAPID WEAKENING OF DORA...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA COULD BE DISCONTINUED\r\nLATER THIS MORNING.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 20.9N 111.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 21.6N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 22.7N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 23.8N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 24.8N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 26.2N 117.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DORA IS RATHER DISORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST\r\nOF TWO SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS DECREASED TO 40 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN 72-96 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE 72-96 HR PERIOD WHERE IT APPEARS\r\nTHE REMNANT TROUGH COULD COME CLOSER TO NORTHERN BAJA THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nTHEREAFTER.  \r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED SINCE\r\nLAST NIGHT.  HOWEVER...DORA IS MOVING OVER STEADILY DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING\r\nFOR DORA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 12 HR OR LESS AND TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW BY 24 HR.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION WEAKENING TO A TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED AS THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH DORA\r\nARE EXPECTED TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 21.3N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 22.1N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 23.3N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 24.4N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 25.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA HAS REPORTED\r\n850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AND 44 KT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS\r\nFROM THE SFMR.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 1001 MB.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSTILL PRODUCING CONVECTION...MOST NOTABLY IN A NARROW BAND TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...\r\nESPECIALLY FROM 48-96 HR WHEN IT APPEARS THE REMNANT TROUGH COULD\r\nCOME CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 48 HR AND A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nDORA IS EXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF\r\nTHE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK DECREASE TO 19C BY 72 HR...AND THUS DORA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HR.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WEAKENING TO\r\nA TROUGH IN 72-96 HR...SO THE FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION AT\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 21.7N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 22.4N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 23.5N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 24.6N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 25.4N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 27.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2011\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA THIS EVENING FOUND PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 53 KT AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS\r\nRELEASED...BUT NOTHING AT THE SURFACE ANY HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nOBSERVED.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED.  BASED ON THE\r\nORGANIZATIONAL TRENDS SINCE THE TIME OF THE AIRCRAFT MISSION...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  WITH THE CYCLONE OVER 23C\r\nWATER AND HEADING FOR EVEN COLDER WATER...A CONTINUED SPIN DOWN IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/10.  THIS\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nALSO A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  BOTH THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF SHOW THE MID- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING IN\r\nA DAY OR SO...WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANTS TURNING WESTWARD AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTEX MOVING TOWARD THE COAST...BUT THAT SEPARATION\r\nMIGHT BE OCCURRING NOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND STILL CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF\r\nMEAN.  THE REGIONAL MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE COAST\r\nTHAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT EVEN IF THAT SHOULD HAPPEN THERE\r\nWILL BE VERY LITTLE LEFT OF DORA BUT SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 22.5N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 23.3N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 24.4N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 25.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011\r\n \r\nDORA HAD LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 0000 UTC BUT HAS\r\nRECENTLY DEVELOPED A SMALL BURST ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  NONETHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY SPINNING\r\nDOWN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS BETWEEN 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nTHE UW-CIMMS ADT.  DORA IS NOW OVER 21-22C WATER AND WILL BE UNABLE\r\nTO MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS LIKELY THAT IT\r\nWILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nDORA IS STILL MOVING A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WILL DECOUPLE OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS IN THE DIRECTION\r\nOF THE GFS AND ECMWF NEAR-SURFACE CENTERS OF CIRCULATION.  THIS NEW\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ALONG\r\nTHE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nHOLD ON TO AN AREA OF VORTICITY AT 850 MB FOR SEVERAL MORE\r\nDAYS...THEY ALL SHOW THE 10-METER WIND CIRCULATION OPENING UP WELL\r\nBEFORE THEN...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 23.0N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 23.9N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 24.9N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 26.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011\r\n \r\nDORA HAS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINED A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF ITS CIRCULATION...AND THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED\r\nTO INVESTIGATE DORA THIS AFTERNOON AND MEASURE THE INTENSITY OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER 21 DEG C WATERS...IT WILL\r\nPROBABLY BE UNABLE TO SUSTAIN DEEP CONVECTION MUCH LONGER...AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE\r\nTONIGHT.  AS NOTED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATING WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/8...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  DORA IS\r\nBEING STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nPREDICTIONS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THIS IS ON THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 23.5N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 24.4N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 25.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 26.4N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Dora","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP042011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2011\r\n \r\nA NOAA AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DORA ON A RESEARCH MISSION FOUND THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS SPUN DOWN TO AN INTENSITY OF AROUND 25 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH A SMALL PATCH OF DIMINISHING SHOWERS HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION...THE SYSTEM LACKS\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THEREFORE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON DORA.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...\r\nAND THE CURRENT MOTION IS NEAR 325/6.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO UNTIL THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN...THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFOR FUTURE INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 23.9N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 24.7N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 25.7N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 26.6N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-07-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE NEAR THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.  A FAIRLY\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND EXTENDS AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PERHAPS A LITTLE\r\nEXPOSED.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH\r\nT2.0...AND THE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING ABOUT 15 KT OF\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...WHICH LIKELY EXPLAINS THE\r\nEXPOSED CENTER...AND THIS SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ALL\r\nTHAT MUCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE\r\nTO A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM. \r\nSOME WEAKENING COULD OCCUR BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES\r\nCOLDER WATER.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED\r\nSOMEWHAT RECENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/8.  THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BE EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES AND EXTENDING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  IT IS\r\nTHEREFORE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AND REMAIN WELL OFF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO THE FASTER-MOVING ECMWF MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 10.7N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 11.1N 100.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 12.0N 102.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 12.8N 104.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 13.5N 106.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 16.5N 112.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-07-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT THE STRUCTURE OF A SHEARED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A DEEP CIRCULAR MASS OF CONVECTION.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE LAST SIX HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COOLING AND\r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF A NEW BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 2.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY...SUGGESTING AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE. THE DEPRESSION IS THEREFORE\r\nBEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EUGENE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AND THUS\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN.  THE BEST ESTIMATE BASED\r\nUPON RECENT FIXES IS 285/09.  EUGENE SHOULD BE STEERED ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A STRONG MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL PLAINS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND CONTINUES TO LIE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSER TO THE UKMET/ECMWF MODELS WHICH HAD\r\nBETTER INITIALIZATIONS OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nUW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE 15-20 KT OF\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EUGENE.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...LIKELY\r\nHAMPERING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE SOME BUT EUGENE WILL BE REACHING\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AROUND THAT TIME.  A WEAKENING TREND\r\nSHOULD COMMENCE THEN...POSSIBLY AT A FASTER RATE BY DAY 5.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 11.0N 100.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 11.5N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 12.2N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 13.1N 105.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 13.8N 107.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 15.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 16.5N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EUGENE HAS IMPROVED SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH THE APPEARANCE OF INCREASED BANDING AND THE\r\nFORMATION OF A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES ARE T2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB AT 1800 UTC.  A TIMELY ASCAT\r\nPASS FROM 1810 UTC SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE ASCAT PASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8...SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE. EUGENE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER ANCTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER\r\nTHE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FEATURE\r\nSHOULD INDUCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERWARD TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE HWRF...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF EARLIER RUNS\r\nOF THE UKMET/ECMWF. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN\r\nTHIS DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nUW-CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERIST\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FAVORS A GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR EUGENE TO REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE FOR A DAY OR TWO BEFORE EUGENE REACHES PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...POSSIBLY OFFERING AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BEYOND WHAT IS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nDUE TO THE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK AND THE FORECAST OF A\r\nLONGER PERIOD OF LOWER WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 48-96 HR. THIS FORECAST\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND FSSE\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 11.0N 101.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 11.5N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 12.2N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 12.9N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 13.6N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 14.5N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 17.5N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE APPEARS TO HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST BARELY\r\nCOVERING THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nWERE UNCHANGED AT 00Z FROM THEIR PREVIOUS VALUES...AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT.\r\n\r\nBASED ON A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 295/9.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING EUGENE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  NEAR\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EUGENE MAY APPROACH A BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE AND COULD TURN A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HWRF AND GFDL...WHICH\r\nTURN EUGENE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...SEEMINGLY\r\nINTO THE TEETH OF THE RIDGE.  THESE TWO MODELS HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED\r\n...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF...AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FORECASTING EASTERLY SHEAR TO INCREASE\r\nOVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SEEMINGLY NOT\r\nENOUGH TO DISSUADE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FROM FORECASTING SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BEFORE EUGENE\r\nREACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...BUT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE LGEM NEVER BRINGS\r\nEUGENE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 11.3N 102.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 11.7N 103.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 12.3N 105.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 12.9N 107.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 13.5N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 14.5N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH EUGENE\r\nHAS INCREASED MARKEDLY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW APPEARS\r\nCOMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT AT 0000\r\nUTC...BUT THE BANDING HAS INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THAT TIME.  THE\r\nADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS NOW T3.5 SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO A COMPROMISE OF 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/10.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED\r\nOVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA EXTENDS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF\r\nMEXICO...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE EUGENE ON A\r\nCONSISTENT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 96\r\nHOURS.  MYSTERIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nDISINTEGRATING BY 72 HOURS AND CONSEQUENTLY ALLOW EUGENE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARDS THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST DISREGARDS THESE MODELS AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET.  THIS NEW FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FROM 36 TO 72 HOURS BUT COMES BACK IN\r\nLINE BY 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEUGENE SO FAR HAS BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO EXPECT ANY IMMEDIATE CHANGE IN\r\nTHIS TREND.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER BOUND OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT SHORT-TERM STRENGTHENING TREND AND\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0347 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 11.6N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 12.2N 104.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 12.9N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 13.6N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 14.2N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 15.5N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 18.5N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES.\r\nIN ADDITION...AN 0853 UTC AMSR-E PASS REVEALED THE FORMATION OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE...DISPLACED ABOUT 20 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 3.5...AND 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUES ARE AT 3.8. BASED\r\nON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN MOVING RIGHT OF TRACK\r\nSINCE EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 295/9. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE\r\nCENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD GUIDE\r\nEUGENE GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BETWEEN 120-130W ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE\r\nTROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST. EUGENE SHOULD TURN A BIT TO THE\r\nRIGHT AT THAT POINT AND ITS FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nMODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER EUGENE HAS NOT PREVENTED THE\r\nCYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL\r\nRATE OF DEVELOPMENT OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY.  THERE IS NO REASON TO\r\nBELIEVE THAT A SIMILAR RATE OF DEVELOPMENT WOULD NOT CONTINUE...\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINING THE CURRENT LEVEL OF SHEAR FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...A DECREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD\r\nRESULT IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION BEYOND WHAT THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES BEFORE EUGENE REACHES COOLER WATERS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION THIS\r\nCYCLE...WITH THE GFDL MODEL STILL CONTINUING TO FORECAST EUGENE TO\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD...CLOSE TO LGEM...BUT BELOW THE IVCN/ICON MODEL\r\nCONSESUS AIDS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 12.3N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 12.9N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 13.6N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 14.3N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 15.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 16.5N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011\r\n \r\nAN EYE IS NOT YET DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE OR INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT A TRMM OVERPASS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING\r\nINDICATED A CLOSED EYEWALL IN THE 37-GHZ CHANNEL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nNOW WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS.  IN ADDITION...BANDING HAS\r\nINCREASED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED....EVEN THOUGH CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nHAVE WARMED A BIT.  BASED UPON THE SATELLITE TRENDS AND CONSENSUS\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES OF 4.0 FROM TAFB/SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF EUGENE HAS MADE FINDING THE CENTER\r\nEASIER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 300/11.  THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH\r\nOF EUGENE OVER MEXICO AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH MOST OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  AS EUGENE APPROACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE AFTER 48-72 HOURS...THE TRACK MAY BEND MORE TO THE RIGHT AS\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED SLOWS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nOVER EUGENE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AT A RATE IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT\r\nDEVELOPMENTAL TREND.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE\r\nRAPID GIVEN THE CLOSED RING SEEN IN EARLIER 37-GHZ MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE IS\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN WEAKENING.  RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 72 HOURS\r\n...WITH EUGENE EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON DAY 5.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND\r\nMATCHES THE LGEM/FSSE OUTPUT THE BEST.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 12.9N 105.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 13.6N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 14.3N 108.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 15.2N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 17.3N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 18.6N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 20.5N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2011\r\n \r\nOVERALL EUGENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nAND A PROMINENT CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SUBJECTIVE\r\nAND OBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM\r\n1800Z...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT.\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT...AS ANALYZED BY\r\nUW-CIMSS...IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS\r\nMARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING WHILE EUGENE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING BEYOND THAT TIME ONCE EUGENE\r\nCROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...290/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nBEFORE...AS EUGENE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE AROUND 120W. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE AGAIN BEEN\r\nDISCOUNTED AS THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UNREALISTIC NORTHWARD TRACK.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 13.2N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 13.9N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 14.7N 110.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 15.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 16.2N 113.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 17.4N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 18.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 20.5N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT EUGENE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  SPIRALING DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBECOME QUITE PROMINENT...AND THERE ARE NOW HINTS OF AN EYE FORMING\r\nIN THE INFRARED CHANNEL.  THE WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE ESTIMATES BECAUSE OF THE\r\nIMPROVED CENTRAL FEATURES...AND EVEN THIS WIND SPEED ESTIMATE COULD\r\nBE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE INITIAL MOTION OF 290/13.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A RATHER LARGE CHANGE IN THE PREDICTED\r\nSYNOPTIC PATTERN IN A COUPLE DAYS.  WHILE THERE IS A STILL A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF 120W....ENOUGH RIDGING IS\r\nPRESENT IN ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO NOT ALLOW EUGENE TO GAIN\r\nSIGNIFICANT LATITUDE.  EVEN THE REGIONAL MODELS...HWRF/GFDL...NO\r\nLONGER SHOW MUCH OF A NORTHWARD TURN UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A KNOT OR TWO\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL ENDS UP WELL WEST OF THE\r\nLAST FORECAST.  THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nGFS/ECMWF/UKMET...ARE STILL FASTER THAN THE NEW FORECAST...AND IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FUTURE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WERE STILL\r\nNEEDED.\r\n \r\nMODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS EUGENE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SO FAR THIS SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH DISRUPTION...AS SEEN BY THE STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER TOMORROW...WHICH WILL LIKELY INITIATE A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  EUGENE WILL ENCOUNTER MUCH COLDER WATERS BY DAY 3... WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  GIVEN THE RECENT TREND IN\r\nORGANIZATION...THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE UPPER EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE EARLY ON...AND IS BLENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  GIVEN THE RECENT\r\nINCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF EUGENE\r\nBRIEFLY BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 13.8N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 14.3N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 15.0N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 15.8N 113.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 16.6N 115.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 18.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 19.5N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 21.0N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nOCCASIONALLY IT HAS APPEARED THAT EUGENE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP\r\nAN EYE...BUT EVERY TIME THAT HAPPENS THE WARM SPOT NOTED IN\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY DISAPPEARS.  STILL...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING RAISED TO 85 KT ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS BEEN DEFYING THE MODELS AND IS NOT SLOWING DOWN.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/13.  STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nCONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE FARTHER WEST NEAR 128W FILLING A BIT OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HURRICANE IS THEREFORE NOT EXPECTED TO GAIN\r\nMUCH LATITUDE AS IT REMAINS EMBEDDED IN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nSOUTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nFASTER-MOVING GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND\r\nLEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT PREVENTED EUGENE\r\nFROM STRENGTHENING...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO\r\nPREVENT THE HURRICANE FROM DEVELOPING AND MAINTAINING AN EYE.\r\nNONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALL INDICATE ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS STILL AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS.  EUGENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND BASED ON RECENT\r\nNHC INTENSITY ERRORS AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST...THERE IS\r\nROUGHLY A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING AT SOME POINT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...EUGENE SHOULD BE MOVING\r\nACROSS COOLER WATERS...AND THE FORECAST INDICATES A RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING SIMILAR TO THAT SHOWN BY THE LGEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 14.0N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 14.5N 111.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 15.3N 113.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 16.1N 115.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 16.8N 117.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 18.0N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 20.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS FINALLY BEEN ABLE TO DEVELOP AN EYE...ALBEIT A LARGE AND\r\nRAGGED ONE.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE BOTH 5.0...AND GIVEN THE IMPROVED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90\r\nKT.  A 1555 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED\r\nMICROWAVE EYE...BUT THIS IMAGE...ALONG WITH CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT SOME DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  NONETHELESS...THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST EUGENE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN\r\nUNTIL IT REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND NOW EXPLICITLY CALLS FOR THE\r\nHURRICANE TO REACH MAJOR STATUS...IN LINE WITH ALL THE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS LEFT UNCHANGED AND CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE LGEM.  IT IS NOW LIKELY...ABOUT A 4 IN 5 CHANCE...THAT\r\nEUGENE WILL REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AT SOME POINT DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nEUGENE MAY FINALLY BE DECELERATING...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 285/12.  THERE IS NOTHING EARTH-SHATTERING TO ADD TO\r\nTHE FORECAST REASONING...AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST WAS REQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A HAIR\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 14.2N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 14.7N 112.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 15.5N 114.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 16.2N 116.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 16.9N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 18.2N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 20.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AND BECOME\r\nMORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE EYE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB WERE 90 KT AT 0000Z...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THEN THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT\r\n100 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  THIS MAKES EUGENE A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE\r\nTHIRD OF THE 2011 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. \r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING...EUGENE STILL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS OVER RELATIVELY\r\nWARM WATERS AND IN A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AS IT IS IN\r\nCURRENTLY.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATER...AND RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE AROUND THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM DURING THE WEAKENING PHASE. \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KT...AS IT REMAINS\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES.  THERE IS NOT MUCH NEW TO DISCUSS ABOUT THE FUTURE\r\nTRACK OF EUGENE.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BASICALLY HOLD IN\r\nPLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW EUGENE\r\nTO CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL PATH.  A REDUCTION IN SPEED IS\r\nLIKELY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE WEAKER\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A TAD TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 14.7N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 15.3N 113.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 16.2N 115.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 16.9N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 17.5N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 18.8N 124.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 20.0N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 21.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2011\r\n\r\nOVERALL...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EUGENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.  A RAGGED EYE IS OCCASIONALLY APPARENT\r\nIN INFRARED IMAGERY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE\r\nEYEWALL. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 90 KT\r\nAND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHILE THE ADVANCED\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN REMAIN NEAR 100 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 100 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/12.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD STEER EUGENE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION MAY\r\nOCCUR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE NEAR 130W WEAKENS...\r\nAND AS THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED MORE BY THE\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nEUGENE IS MOVING OVER SLOWLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK INTENSITY.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY\r\nA STEADY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATERS...WITH EUGENE EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM IN ABOUT 60-72 HR...TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IN ABOUT 96 HR...AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 120 HR. \r\nCOMPLETE DISSIPATION BEFORE 120 HR APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS\r\nTIME...AS THE GFS...ECMWF...AND NOGAPS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF EUGENE\r\nLASTING WELL BEYOND THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 15.2N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 15.9N 114.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 16.7N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 17.4N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 18.0N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 19.5N 126.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 21.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A BAND\r\nOF WHITE ON THE DVORAK INFRARED ENHANCEMENT CURVE COMPLETELY\r\nSURROUNDED THE LARGE AND RAGGED EYE FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL ABOUT\r\n1330 UTC...AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nWERE 100 TO 105 KT AT 1200 UTC.  EVEN WITH A BREAK IN THE WHITE\r\nBAND RECENTLY DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE HURRICANE...\r\nTHE LATEST OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER...BETWEEN\r\n115 AND 120 KT...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE.  \r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING ALONG THE PATH OF\r\nEUGENE...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER A PATCH OF HIGHER\r\nOCEAN HEAT CONTENT THAT MAY HAVE AIDED INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT. \r\nHOWEVER...THE CYCLONE WILL BE EXITING THAT REGION BY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREFORE...EUGENE HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS\r\nPEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY.  IN\r\nGENERAL...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING FASTER WEAKENING THAN\r\nTHE STATISTICAL MODELS...BUT THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PUTS\r\nMORE RELIANCE ON THE LATTER...PARTICULARLY WITH THE LGEM AFTER 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/12.  A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNEAR 128W WILL BE FILLING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODELS\r\nARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN EUGENE ON\r\nITS CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  ANOTHER BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 135W AND 150W BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...BUT EUGENE SHOULD HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY THEN TO BE STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 15.7N 114.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 16.3N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 17.7N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 18.4N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 21.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 21.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2011\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE WARMED SINCE\r\nTHIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THE EYE ITSELF HAS CLEARED OUT...AND ITS\r\nWARMING HAS COMPENSATED FOR THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS SUCH THAT\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW\r\nT6.0...OR 115 KT.  MORE RECENTLY...OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES ARE\r\nRUNNING BETWEEN 120 AND 125 KT...SO THE INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT\r\n120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...MAKING EUGENE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS DEFIED THE MODELS AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY.  HOWEVER...\r\nITS TIME OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 26C IS RUNNING OUT...ABOUT 12 TO 18\r\nHOURS IN FACT...THEREFORE IT SEEMS THAT WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN\r\nSOON.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS\r\nTHE STATISTICAL MODELS.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS-DERIVED ANNULAR\r\nHURRICANE INDEX INDICATES THAT EUGENE IS NOT ANNULAR AT THIS\r\nTIME...IT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ON SOME ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...\r\nSUCH AS A LARGE EYE AND WIDE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION.  IF EUGENE\r\nBECOMES ANNULAR SOON...AND ITS FORECAST TRACK ACROSS GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD FAVOR THAT...THEN THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD WEAKEN MORE GRADUALLY THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE WITH A MOTION OF 290/12.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AND THE\r\nHURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 130W AND 150W BY DAY 4...AND THERE IS A\r\nLITTLE MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AT THAT TIME.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST\r\n36 HOURS AND REALLY ONLY DEVIATES FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...MAINLY TO DISREGARD THE SLOWER...NORTHWARD-TURNING\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 16.0N 115.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 16.7N 117.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 17.4N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 18.1N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 18.7N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 20.0N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 21.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 22.0N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO WHEN\r\nCLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES OF AROUND -75C SURROUNDED THE EYE. SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE EYE REMAINS WELL-DEFINED WITH MESOVORTICIES EVIDENT IN THE LAST\r\nFEW VISIBLE IMAGES. A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 110 KT. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS CURRENTLY OVER 27C WATERS...AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 26C BY TOMORROW MORNING.\r\nTHESE COOL WATERS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE\r\nSHOULD CAUSE STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING...AND EUGENE IS NOW FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS AS IT REACHES 22C WATERS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ONCE THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND AGAIN DISREGARDS THE SLOWER GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 16.3N 116.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 16.9N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 17.7N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 18.4N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 19.0N 125.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 20.2N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 21.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0000Z 21.5N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011\r\n \r\nCORRECTED FOR SPELLING\r\n\r\nEUGENE HAS NOT WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...EVEN THOUGH\r\nIT HAS BEGUN TO TRAVERSE A SHARP GRADIENT OF SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE SIZE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS\r\nSHRUNK...IT REMAINS RATHER SYMMETRIC.  IN ADDITION...CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY COOLED AROUND A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM\r\nDIAMETER EYE.  GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 110 KT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF T/CI NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB/SAB.  THE MAIN QUESTION NOW IS HOW QUICKLY THE RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING WILL BE NOW THAT EUGENE IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  WEAKENING MAY INITIALLY BE TEMPERED A BIT BY\r\nEUGENE HAVING SOME OF THE CLASSIC CHARACTERISTICS OF AN ANNULAR\r\nHURRICANE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  FOR THIS REASON...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR A RAPID WEAKENING\r\nAFTER THAT...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A IVCN/FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\nEUGENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72\r\nHOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12...ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM\r\nBEFORE.  THE FORECAST REASONING REMAINS THE SAME AS IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES.  EUGENE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT MOTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH OVER THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nOF THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW CONSIDERABLY ONCE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS\r\nAND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF WHICH CONTINUES TO LIE WELL NORTH OF THE\r\nMAIN TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 16.7N 117.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 17.3N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 18.1N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 18.7N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 19.3N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 20.3N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 21.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2011\r\n \r\nCOLDER CLOUD TOPS DEVELOPED AROUND THE EYE SEVERAL HOURS AGO...AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC WERE 115\r\nKT AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.  IN ADDITION...\r\nOBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS INCREASED BACK UP TO 115 KT\r\nAFTER 0800 UTC.  A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 105 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 285/12 AND SHOULD REMAIN ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS EUGENE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED\r\nBY THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHOSE AXIS IS ALONG 28N.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.  EUGENE\r\nSHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAYS 3 AND 4 AS THE WEAKENED CYCLONE IS STEERED\r\nBY WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\nFOR THE FIRST TIME...THE SHIPS-DERIVED ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX\r\nINDICATES THAT EUGENE HAS GAINED ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS...AND THE\r\nSLOW WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO BEARS THIS OUT. \r\nTRUTHFULLY...THE PRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT\r\nIN THE LAST FEW INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT IT\r\nWILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS...AND PRESUMABLY\r\nTHE ACTUAL INTENSITY...TO DECREASE.  ALSO...SINCE THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nALONG THE TRACK WILL BE DECREASING MORE GRADUALLY AND COULD SUPPORT\r\nSLOWER WEAKENING.  IN LIGHT OF THESE POINTS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR THE\r\nFIRST 12 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE HIGHEST OF THE MODELS...THE\r\nLGEM...FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  EUGENE SHOULD\r\nULTIMATELY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER 22C DEGREE WATERS\r\nAND DEGENERATE TO A TROUGH BY DAY 5...AS INDICATED IN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FIELDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 16.8N 118.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 17.4N 120.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 18.0N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 18.6N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 19.2N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 20.5N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 21.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF EUGENE HAVE NOT\r\nWARMED MUCH...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BEEN SHRINKING OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T4.5/5.5 FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS\r\nIS T5.0/5.8.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF THESE NUMBERS.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS\r\nIT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C AND INTO A DRIER...\r\nMORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES TO CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOW LGEM...THE HIGHEST OF THE GUIDANCE...THROUGH THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER WEAKENING\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THE LGEM AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nIVCN.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 96 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS.\r\n\r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/12 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG\r\nTHAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SOME\r\nDECELERATION AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS RIGHT ON\r\nTRACK WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH A 1658 UTC ASCAT PASS ONLY SKIMMED THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE...IT DID INDICATE THAT THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE TOO\r\nLARGE ON THAT SIDE.  THE RADII HAVE BEEN TRIMMED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...BUT WITHOUT REAL GROUND TRUTH...THEY COULD STILL BE A\r\nLITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 17.2N 120.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 17.6N 121.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 18.2N 124.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 18.9N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 19.5N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 20.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 21.0N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE EYE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED. AT 0000 UTC...\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES WERE BETWEEN 77 AND 83 KT...AND WITH THE\r\nRECENT COMPLETE LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 75 KT. STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRY STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. MOST OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW A FASTER DECLINE IN\r\nWINDS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE LAST\r\nADVISORY. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN 3 DAYS DUE TO\r\nSSTS COOLING BELOW 23C.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT THE RATHER CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE OF 285/11. \r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HOLDING FIRM TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD TURN\r\nA BIT MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW DOWN IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. \r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nREMAINING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 17.4N 121.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 17.8N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 18.4N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 19.0N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 19.6N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 20.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED THAT THE INNER\r\nCORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DECAYED FURTHER. THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN QUICKLY SHRINKING...AND THAT WHICH REMAINS\r\nPRIMARILY LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF T AND\r\nCI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...\r\nWITH THE WEAKENING PERHAPS BECOMING MORE RAPID ONCE EUGENE REACHES\r\nSUB-24C WATERS AFTER 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND AGREES WELL WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW FORECAST WITHIN 2 DAYS...\r\nSOONER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nEUGENE REMAINS ON TRACK...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE STILL\r\n285/11.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD HOLD\r\nSWAY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE EUGENE TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITS CURRENT HEADING AND SPEED.  ONCE EUGENE WEAKENS\r\nFURTHER AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...A DECELERATION OF THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST IN THE RELATIVELY LIGHTER TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHAT DISREGARDS THE HWRF.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON A 0546 UTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 17.6N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 18.1N 123.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 18.7N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 19.2N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 19.7N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 20.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER.  IN FACT...A 1005 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE\r\nREVEALS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW JUST BENEATH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK FINAL-T\r\nNUMBERS HAVE PLUMMETED TO 3.5 AND 2.5 RESPECTIVELY...AND A 0542 UTC\r\nASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF AROUND 50 TO 55 KT.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO A GENEROUS 55 KT BASED ON A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THESE DATA.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COLDER WATER AND AN INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY\r\nEARLIER...AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE IVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT A STEADY 285/11...AND THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.  AFTERWARD...A\r\nREDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE WEAKENED SHALLOW\r\nREFLECTION OF EUGENE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 17.9N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 18.5N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 19.1N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 20.1N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 20.8N 134.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DEGENERATE.  A BLEND OF THE\r\nADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATION AND BOTH ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB IS USED TO SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nTO 50 KT.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.  THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 285/11...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD PERSIST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HR.  AFTERWARD...EUGENE SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW AND\r\nTURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW AS CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 18.2N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 18.7N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 19.3N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 19.8N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 20.2N 132.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2011\r\n\r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN OVER THE COLD WATERS OF THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AND BECOME SMALLER\r\nIN AREAL COVERAGE.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION\r\nHAS WANED...THE OUTER BANDS HAVE BECOME MORE PROMINENT...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS BARELY DEEP ENOUGH TO BE DVORAK-CLASSIFIABLE. \r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM ABOUT 1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS WERE AT LEAST 45 KT.  ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE\r\nSYSTEM SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT...ON THE\r\nHIGHER SIDE OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  EUGENE SHOULD LOSE\r\nITS REMAINING CONVECTION TOMORROW AND PROBABLY BE DECLARED A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THE STORM HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING AT ABOUT 285/12.  AS EUGENE WEAKENS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND SLOW DUE TO IT BECOMING A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nMOTION...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST TO\r\nBE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 18.6N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 18.9N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 19.4N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 19.8N 131.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 20.0N 133.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23 DEG C WATER. ONLY A\r\nSMALL AREA OF SHALLOW CONVECTION IS PRESENT OVER THE OUTER\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATING\r\nABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER.  IN SPITE OF THE NEARLY TOTAL LOSS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...SATELLITE PICTURES AND A 0515 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE OVERALL CIRCULATION REMAINS VIGOROUS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS REDUCED TO 35 KT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB/SAB SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 0600 UTC AND SEVERAL 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS\r\nFROM THE ASCAT PASS.  A SLOW DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE TRAVERSES EVEN COOLER WATERS. EUGENE IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS...WITH DISSIPATION\r\nEXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/11.  IN ABOUT\r\n36 HR...EUGENE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT\r\nSHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE.  ONCE THIS OCCURS...\r\nEUGENE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN RELATIVELY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REPRESENTS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE MULTI-MODEL TVCE\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 18.9N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 19.2N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 19.8N 132.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 19.9N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eugene","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP052011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2011\r\n \r\nEUGENE HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS AND\r\nTHEREFORE IS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...SO THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC\r\nADVISORY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB...AND THE VIGOROUS CIRCULATION STILL SEEN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  EUGENE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT\r\n2 OR 3 DAYS AS IT CONTINUES MOVING OVER WATERS OF 22-23C.  GIVEN THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND THE FACT THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nRETAIN A SURFACE LOW UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL HOLD OFF SHOWING DISSIPATION UNTIL AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nAS EUGENE WEAKENS...IT SHOULD BE INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST...OR EVEN SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST BEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER BASED ON THE\r\nSPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON EUGENE...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 19.3N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 19.7N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 19.9N 131.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 20.1N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 20.1N 135.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011\r\n \r\nA SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED NEAR THE INTERTROPICAL\r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A\r\nCOMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  EASTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nIMPACTING THE SYSTEM HAS DECREASED TODAY...AND A SMALL BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SIDE\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T1.5 AND\r\nT2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE\r\nDESIGNATED AS A DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS FROM\r\nLAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT WINDS WERE NEAR 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE TO DECREASE BELOW\r\n10 KT BETWEEN 12 AND 60 HOURS...WHICH WOULD GIVE THE DEPRESSION\r\nSOME TIME TO STRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE MOVING\r\nOVER A SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS ALONG 140W...IS\r\nBOUNDED BY A VAST AREA OF STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTH...AND IS\r\nINTERACTING WITH THE ITCZ...WHICH WOULD ALL ARGUE AGAINST\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE\r\nSTATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS A FAIRLY FRAGILE SYSTEM GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE AND\r\nMARGINALLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...SO IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING AT\r\nALL IF IT DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE\r\n5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n270/9 AND IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A NARROW EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A BREAK IN\r\nTHE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 130W AND 140W WITHIN 36 TO\r\n48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY...IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AND NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE\r\nTROUGH.  THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF BEING THE FASTEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE\r\nMODELS.  WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON THE\r\nWEAK SIDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE TWO MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 12.0N 132.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 12.0N 133.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 12.0N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 12.1N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 12.3N 137.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 13.0N 140.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 13.5N 149.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 15 2011\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS\r\nDETACHED FROM A SINGLE CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...PRESUMABLY A SYMPTOM OF CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS STILL FORECAST THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO DECREASE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nGRADUALLY BE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND WILL BEGIN TO\r\nINGEST A RELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH.\r\nTHE LATTER TWO FACTORS WOULD LIKELY OFFSET ANY POTENTIAL FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM.  BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...AN ABRUPT\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SUB-26C WATERS SHOULD HASTEN THE\r\nDEMISE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD SLIGHTLY AND REMAINS A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE\r\nTHE CYCLONE DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN WHAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/8.  AN EAST-NORTHEAST TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD STEER IT ON A WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  BY\r\n48 HOURS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING BETWEEN 130W AND 140W\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE AT THAT POINT...THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO MINIMAL AND A MORE WESTERLY MOTION IS ASSUMED LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 12.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 12.2N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 12.3N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 12.4N 137.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 12.7N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 13.5N 141.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 14.0N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z 13.5N 150.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBLOSSOMED AGAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AS IT DID 12 HOURS\r\nAGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES PARTIALLY SUPPORT MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE CENTER TO\r\nMOVE CLOSER TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IF AT ALL...TO INCREASE\r\nTHE WINDS. SINCE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM...ONLY A SMALL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER COLD WATERS AND WEAKENS. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL...AND NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL ESTABLISHED AND PERSISTENT\r\nDEEP EASTERLY FLOW. THEREFORE...THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH FIVE DAYS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND\r\nTRACKS ARE REALLY FANNING OUT AFTER TWO DAYS MAKING THE FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...BY THEN THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE READY TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 12.4N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 12.4N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 12.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 12.5N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 13.0N 138.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 14.0N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 14.5N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z 15.0N 149.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE. \r\nTHIS STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY A TRMM PASS AT 0800 UTC WHICH SHOWED\r\nTHE CENTER JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN BANDING FEATURE. \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 45 KT FROM SAB/TAFB...SO THE INITIAL\r\nWINDS WILL BE INCREASED TO 40 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FERNANDA IS PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH MORE STABLE AIR AND\r\nCOOLER WATERS JUST TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS NOW\r\nSHOWING CONSIDERABLY MORE INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM/HWRF MODELS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nAFTER THAT TIME...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALONG WITH\r\nDECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...THE FORECAST WILL\r\nSTAY LOWER THAN THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN HOW CLOSE FERNANDA\r\nIS TO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS... WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FERNANDA TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  AFTER THAT TIME...A WEAKER CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE LOWER-LEVEL TRADES.  WHILE THE\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE IS PRETTY WELL-CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST FEW\r\nDAYS...THERE ARE SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO AN AVERAGE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE GFS AND ITS\r\nENSEMBLE...GFDL...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS.  THIS BLEND RESULTS IN\r\nA SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FARTHER WEST FORECAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 12.3N 134.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 12.3N 135.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 12.5N 137.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 12.8N 138.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 13.2N 139.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 14.2N 143.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 14.5N 147.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 15.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nFERNANDA HAS GONE THROUGH AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION ON SATELLITE\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WHILE OVERNIGHT IMAGES SUGGESTED A\r\nSHEARED SYSTEM...THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A STORM\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY CURVED BANDING FEATURES AND NO SIGNS OF THE EARLIER\r\nSHEAR.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 45 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN OF FERNANDA HAS A FAVORABLE SHAPE FOR FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION WITH CIRRUS FANNING OUT NICELY IN ALL QUADRANTS.\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A BIT TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...SO THE STORM SHOULD HAVE A LONGER\r\nTIME IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. \r\nALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS NOW MAKE FERNANDA A HURRICANE AT\r\nSOME POINT...AND CONSIDERING THE STORM SHOULD HAVE LIGHT SHEAR AND\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATERS FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nREASON TO DISCOUNT THE STRONGER SOLUTION.  THUS...THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR FERNANDA TO BRIEFLY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nIN THE LONGER RANGE...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nAND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nREMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nIT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING OR HAS REFORMED A\r\nBIT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 265/9 KT.   GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING\r\nA DEEP TROUGH ALONG ABOUT 140W...WHICH LEAVES A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS FERNANDA APPROACHES THAT LONGITUDE...THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD TURN A BIT MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS.  IN A FEW DAYS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nBACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.   THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH IN THE SHORT-TERM...MOSTLY DUE TO THE\r\nCENTER REFORMATION...BUT ENDS UP NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE END.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH IN THE\r\nLONG RANGE...STRONG SHEAR AND COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE WATERS SHOULD\r\nREDUCE FERNANDA TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 11.7N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 11.6N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 11.9N 138.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 12.6N 139.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 13.4N 141.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 15.0N 145.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 15.5N 153.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM REMAINS\r\nWELL ORGANIZED...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVED BANDS.  HOWEVER THE CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING\r\nA DECREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS DECREASE\r\nIS PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION AND IS LIKELY\r\nONLY TEMPORARY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT SO THE\r\nCURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.  FERNANDA CONTINUES TO\r\nEXHIBIT STRONG AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW... AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26 DEG C FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  HENCE THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE.  THIS IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR\r\n30 KT OVER FERNANDA.  THEREFORE THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY BY\r\nDAY 5 AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST FIXES AN ADDITIONAL...SLIGHT...SOUTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK HAS BEEN MADE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nWESTWARD NEAR 7 KT.  NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nNEAR 140W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST TOMORROW.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS LYING ON THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY A TAD SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 11.5N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 11.7N 137.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 12.2N 138.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 12.9N 140.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 13.7N 141.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 15.5N 145.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 16.0N 149.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 16.0N 153.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL ORGANIZED... DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME\r\nTHUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND WITHIN A CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO SPREAD\r\nOVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND STABLE AIR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nNOT CHANGED MUCH AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45\r\nKNOTS. THERE IS SOME ROOM FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST BUT IN GENERAL...MOST OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE\r\nNO LONGER BRING FERNANDA TO HURRICANE STATUS. IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS\r\nWILL INDUCE WEAKENING AND...AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FERNANDA\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFERNANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nNEAR 140W LONGITUDE AND THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON. BEYOND 4 DAYS...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO HAVE A LARGE SPREAD WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS LYING ON THE\r\nNORTHERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL SUITE AND GLOBAL MODELS NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 11.6N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 11.7N 138.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 12.5N 139.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 14.5N 142.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 15.4N 146.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 16.0N 150.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 16.0N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n \r\nFERNANDA HAS A SOMEWHAT HOLLOW APPEARANCE. THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF\r\nITS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nINGESTION OF A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTH.\r\nWHATEVER REMAINING CONVECTION IS IN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE\r\nINDICATED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE\r\nSTORM...WITH A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION AND OUTFLOW THAT REMAINS\r\nWELL ESTABLISHED.  CURRENT CI NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08...WITH RECENT FIXES\r\nPOSSIBLY SUGGESTING A MOTION SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.  FERNANDA IS\r\nAPPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A LONGWAVE\r\nTROUGH ALONG 140W IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN ITS WAKE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nTRACK OF FERNANDA TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nWEAKNESS BUT THEN BENDING TOWARD THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS\r\nAND FERNANDA GETS CAUGHT UNDER A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS A\r\nFAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS/HWRF/GFDL\r\nFAVORING A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS AND MORE NORTHWARD FORECAST\r\nTRACKS.  THE UKMET/ECMWF SHOW STRONGER RIDGING AND ARE ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND IS GENERALLY IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THESE TWO CAMPS...TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS FERNANDA EMBEDDED IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nDECREASE ALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM...ALBEIT SLOWLY...AND FERNANDA\r\nIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE INGESTING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS\r\nFROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD ESSENTIALLY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\nAFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR RELATED TO A UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nSHEAR AXIS SOUTH OF HAWAII AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nA WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 11.8N 137.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 12.2N 138.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 13.0N 140.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 14.0N 142.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 14.9N 143.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 15.2N 146.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 16.5N 151.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1200Z 16.5N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TYPO IN SECOND PARAGRAPH AND STATUS IN TABLE AT 72H\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IN FERNANDA HAS STAGED A COMEBACK DURING\r\nTHE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE OVERALL DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION IS\r\nRELATIVELY SHALLOW.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY STILL INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A WELL ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...WITH\r\nAN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THIS MORNING...\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THEREFORE HELD AT 45 KT.\r\n \r\nFERNANDA HAS BEGUN MOVING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/07. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE\r\nRESPONDING TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS\r\nFORMED IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH NOW SLOWLY LIFTING OUT\r\nALONG 140W.  THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CAUSE FERNANDA TO\r\nCONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE\r\nFERNANDA WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE FORECAST\r\nGUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH FERNANDA REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IT HAS\r\nALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS.  THE PROXIMITY\r\nOF THE NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY ALSO\r\nBE TAPPING A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THIS MARGINAL\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE GREATER POLEWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION THE STORM IS NOW EXPERIENCING SHOULD BRING THE\r\nSTORM OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AFTER 24 HOURS...AND STEADY WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THEN.  THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING SHEAR AND\r\nNEAR 25C WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS COULD RESULT IN A RATHER RAPID\r\nDEMISE.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD...AT THE\r\nLOW END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH POST-TROPICAL STATUS NOW\r\nFORECAST SOONER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 12.1N 138.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 12.8N 139.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 13.6N 141.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 14.4N 142.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 15.1N 144.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 16.0N 148.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 16.6N 153.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE STORM CENTER HAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND\r\nINTENSITY...AND THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT\r\nUSING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  GIVEN THAT\r\nFERNANDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS AND\r\nTRAVERSING MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  BY 48\r\nHOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT\r\nAND THE STORM SHOULD BE ON A WEAKENING TREND.  AROUND DAY 4...AN\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS\r\nIS FORECAST TO PRODUCE 25-30 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE\r\nCYCLONE WHICH WILL LIKELY REDUCE FERNANDA TO A REMNANT LOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nNUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF 140W\r\nLONGITUDE HAS CAUSED THE HEADING OF FERNANDA TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ONLY SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE\r\nIN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION WITH JUST A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS.  BY DAY 4...THE WEAK CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD AS IT MOVES MORE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FERNANDA WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1200 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 12.6N 139.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 13.2N 140.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 14.1N 142.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 14.7N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 15.4N 145.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 16.5N 150.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 17.0N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP062011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER OF FERNANDA AND A\r\nCYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS FORMED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE INDICATING THE WINDS ARE NOW 55 KNOTS. SINCE\r\nFERNANDA WILL SOON BE MOVING INTO A RELATIVELY STABLE AIR MASS AND\r\nOVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD\r\nBEGIN.  AS IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FERNANDA IS EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE\r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0618 UTC ASCAT.\r\n \r\nFERNANDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF\r\n140W. HOWEVER AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS...AS ANTICIPATED BY GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ACQUIRE A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT. LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...FERNANDA OR ITS REMNANTS WILL BECOME\r\nSTEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FERNANDA WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1200 UTC.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE NEXT 1500 UTC ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED BY\r\nTHE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nHNLTCPCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE FOUND\r\nUNDER HNLTCPC1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 13.4N 139.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 14.0N 141.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 14.5N 143.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 15.5N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 17.0N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 17.0N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED\r\nOFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAVE INCREASED TO T2.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAT THIS POINT TO CLASSIFY THE SYSTEM AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STRONGER TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. \r\nALSO...THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS OF\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC...AND THESE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY\r\nWARM FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 4 DAYS.  THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE RATES OF INTENSIFICATION AS SHOWN IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE SHIPS MODEL BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE.  SINCE\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON...BUT NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11 WITH THE DEPRESSION BEING STEERED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND\r\nDURING THAT TIME THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE A BIT. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH A BREAK\r\nDEVELOPING BETWEEN 120W AND 135W BY DAY 5.  AT THAT POINT...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...\r\nECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 13.8N  99.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 15.6N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 16.4N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 20.0N 118.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 16 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nSINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. \r\nTHE DEPRESSION WILL BE TRAVERSING SOME OF THE WARMEST WATERS IN THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE SYSTEM ARE\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES\r\nIN THE FORECAST STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS FROM THE\r\nVARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE LGEM AND HWRF...AND SHOW THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER SHIPS/GFDL\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER A TIMELY 0003 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/12.  A STRONG MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP IT MOVING ON\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWING DOWN.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 3-4 DAYS...WITH SOME\r\nDIVERGENCE THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOUTH OF THE TVCE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 15.0N 100.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 15.6N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 16.4N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 17.1N 108.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 17.8N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 18.9N 115.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 19.8N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 20.5N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INCREASING\r\nIN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES AT 0600\r\nUTC. IN ADDITION...A SHIP REPORTED WINDS OF 35 KT JUST TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE ESTIMATED CENTER AT 0300 UTC. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...WHICH MAKES THE CYCLONE\r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GREG HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT\r\nUSING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP OBSERVATION IT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A STRENGTHENING\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A\r\nSLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE LEFT WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS GREG MOVES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF\r\nTHE HIGH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE RIDGE\r\nWEAKENING ON FRIDAY DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING OVER THE U.S. WEST\r\nCOAST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN IN THE\r\nLONGER RANGE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN LIES VERY NEAR\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nGREG IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 30C...AND A RELATIVELY\r\nMOIST ATMOSPHERE. DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLACKEN AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK GRADUALLY LOWER BUT REMAIN ABOVE 26C. THESE CONDITIONS\r\nSUPPORT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH\r\nEND OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THIS PERIOD. GREG IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER SUB 26C WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN ABOUT\r\nTHREE DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND. \r\n    \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 15.8N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 16.6N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 17.4N 107.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 18.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 18.4N 112.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 19.1N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GREG HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING \r\nAS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS DEVELOPED WITH AN OUTER CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR STILL AFFECTING THE STORM...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSUPPORTS THIS BY SHOWING A SOMEWHAT SHEARED PATTERN TO THE\r\nCONVECTION UNDERNEATH THE CDO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/18...WHICH IS FASTER THAN BEFORE. \r\nGREG IS LOCATED BETWEEN A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND A LARGE BUT WEAK\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DUE TO ITS\r\nPROXIMITY TO GREG...LEAVING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM QUICKLY\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A\r\nNORTHWARD SHIFT LIKELY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IT LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRAVCK KEEPS GREG OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C\r\nOR WARMER FOR 36 HR...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR\r\nTO DECREASE DURING THIS TIME.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD ALLOW\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KT IN 36 HR AS A BLEND BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS.  AFTER 48 HR...THE WATERS GET COOLER ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 16.7N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 17.7N 106.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 18.4N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 19.0N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 19.4N 113.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 20.5N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n\r\nGREG CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTER BANDING IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST.  THERE HAS BEEN AN OCCASIONAL\r\nDIMPLE IN THE CDO THAT MIGHT BE A FORMATIVE EYE.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nIS NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO CONFIRM THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN\r\nEYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/20.  GREG IS LOCATED BETWEEN A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO AND A LARGE BUT WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO ITS WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST.  THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO ITS\r\nPROXIMITY TO GREG...LEAVING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN\r\nSTEERING MECHANISM.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM QUICKLY\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 24 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  WHILE THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO... MOST OF THEM HAD TOO WEAK\r\nOF AN INITIALIZATION OF GREG AND SEEM TO BE TURNING THE STORM TOO\r\nQUICKLY WESTWARD INTO THE DISTURBANCE.  THE MODEL WITH THE BEST\r\nINITIAL REPRESENTATION OF GREG...NOGAPS...FORECASTS A TRACK NEAR\r\nTHE NORTH EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  OVERALL...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL ALSO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH.  HOWEVER...IT LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE BETWEEN THE NOGAPS AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS GREG OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27C\r\nOR WARMER FOR 24-36 HR...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST LIGHT\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THIS TIME.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD\r\nALLOW CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR AS A BLEND BETWEEN THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  AFTER 36 HR...THE WATERS GET COOLER ON THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.  THE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF A 25 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR AND A 20\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF A 40 KT INTENSIFICATION.  THUS...IT CANNOT BE\r\nRULED OUT THAT GREG COULD GET MUCH STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 17.1N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.9N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 18.5N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 18.9N 113.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 19.2N 115.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 19.5N 118.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 20.0N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 17 2011\r\n \r\nLATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED A BANDING EYE\r\nFEATURE THAT BECAME OBSCURED AS NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER AROUND SUNSET.  THE SMALL EYE FEATURE WAS ALSO EVIDENT\r\nIN A 2025 UTC TRMM OVERPASS.  UNFORTUNATELY...THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nADDITIONAL MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK FINAL\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 4.0 AND 3.5...RESPECTIVELY...THE\r\nDATA T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES WERE 4.0.  THIS SUPPORTS\r\nINCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 65 KT.  GREG BECOMES THE SIXTH\r\nHURRICANE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN IN 2011.\r\n \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE PATH OF GREG GRADUALLY COOL\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN OVER 27-28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  DURING THAT TIME...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  THE UPDATED FORECAST\r\nINDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 85 KT IN 24 HOURS AND IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  THEREAFTER...STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS SHOWN AS GREG IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER DECREASING\r\nSSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A BRISK 285/19.  GREG CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSTEERED QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND A CYCLONIC GYRE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  AS THE GYRE WEAKENS DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...GREG SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN.  THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS A\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A FURTHER REDUCTION OF FORWARD SPEED.  THE MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nHAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND.  THIS REQUIRES A\r\nSOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 17.5N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 18.1N 110.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 18.6N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 18.9N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 19.0N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 19.0N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 19.0N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011\r\n\r\nGREG HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED WITH AN INTERMITTENT WARM SPOT\r\nEVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.  A TRMM PASS AT 0436 UTC\r\nSHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYE IN THE MID-LEVELS BUT THIS FEATURE WAS\r\nOBSCURED IN THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 70 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS GREG REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C AND\r\nIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...\r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL TRACK OVER COOL WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING...AND GREG\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OVER 23C WATERS\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nGREG CONTINUES TO RACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KT DIRECTLY TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL CAUSE GREG TO SLOW DOWN BUT REMAIN ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  OVERALL THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 18.0N 109.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 18.4N 112.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 18.8N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 19.0N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 19.0N 118.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 19.0N 121.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 19.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 18 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GREG HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE APPEARING IN VISIBLE AND\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 77 KT FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.  THE\r\nCIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR\r\nELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/16.  GREG IS LOCATED BETWEEN A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A LARGE GYRE IN THE INTERTROPICAL\r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE GYRE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND THEY\r\nFORECAST THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AFTER 72 HR IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO TURN MORE WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 HR...WITH A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST AT A\r\nDECREASING FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE\r\nHAVING PROBLEMS FORECASTING THE INTERACTION OF GREG WITH THE GYRE\r\nDUE TO A POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE HURRICANE.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS A OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GREG OVER COOLER WATERS WHERE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL GREG DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST INTENSITIES...WHICH ARE A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS...LGEM...AND ICON GUIDANCE...ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR AND THEN ARE THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 18.5N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.9N 113.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 19.1N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 19.2N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 19.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 19.0N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 19.0N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2011\r\n\r\nGREG HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ITS APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN\r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE APPEARING IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY. OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND RATHER POOR TO THE NORTHEAST. AS A RESULT OF THIS\r\nAND POSSIBLE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM IS\r\nDETACHED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH.\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH CAME IN AT 77 KT...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12 WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN SIX HOURS\r\nAGO. GREG REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OFF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TO\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A LARGE GYRE IN THE INTERTROPICAL\r\nCONVERGENCE ZONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nGREG TO SLOW AND MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n48 HOURS AS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND GREG\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE WEAK GYRE TO ITS SOUTHWEST. BEYOND 48 HOURS THE\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF GREG HAS LIKELY PLATEAUED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE MUCH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. BEYOND 12 HOURS...GREG IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS WHICH WILL CAUSE\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING.  GREG IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  THE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN\r\nNUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 18.8N 112.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 19.0N 114.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 19.1N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 19.1N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 18.9N 120.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 18.5N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 18.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 18.0N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/WROE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 18 2011\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT GREG HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN.  THE MOST RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE OF GREG HAS DISAPPEARED. \r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nTHINNED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SINCE THAT TIME A NEW BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE STARTED TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 70 KT.  THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING AND GREG IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3-4 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nGREG IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  GREG SHOULD\r\nTURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS\r\nFROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  \r\nTHIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DOWN OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nNORTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 18.9N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 19.1N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.2N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 19.1N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 18.9N 121.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 18.6N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 18.3N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/0000Z 18.0N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Greg","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AND CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nARE WARMING AT THIS TIME. T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING BUT STILL\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND SOON THE ENTIRE\r\nCIRCULATION WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND GREG COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN 4 DAYS OR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. GREG WILL LIKELY BE STEERED\r\nTOWARD THE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL PROBABLY MOVE TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST EMBEDDED IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  IN\r\nFACT...DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST GREG TO MOVE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEYOND 2 DAYS.\r\n\r\nGREG JUST PASSED TO THE NORTH OF CLARION ISLAND...AND DATA FROM A\r\nMEXICAN NAVY WEATHER STATION WAS VERY HELPFUL IN TRACKING THE\r\nCYCLONE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 19.1N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 19.5N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 19.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 18.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 18.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n\r\nGREG HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nHAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nBOTH CAME IN AT 65 KT...BUT DATA-T NUMBERS WERE BOTH T3.5/55 KT.\r\nGIVEN THE STEADY CONVECTIVE EROSION NOTED IN THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION SINCE THE 12Z FIXES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nSET AT 55 KT.\r\n\r\nGREG SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NEARING 25C WATERS...AND SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE DECLINING BELOW 24C BY TOMORROW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GREG TO WEAKEN INTO A DEPRESSION ON\r\nSATURDAY AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER RATE OF WEAKENING FROM THE PRIOR FORECAST AND LOWER THAN ALL\r\nOF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE TRACK REASONING...AND GREG IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ON A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nUNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...A\r\nSLIGHT TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ROUGHLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL AND CONSENSUS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 19.1N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 19.3N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 19.3N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 19.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 18.8N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 18.3N 125.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER WROE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n \r\nGREG CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS. CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER HAVE WARMED...AND DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE INNER CORE\r\nHAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY IN COVERAGE DURING THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS...REVEALING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CAME IN AT 65 AND\r\n55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...THOUGH DATA-T NUMBERS GAVE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nLOWER STRENGTHS OF 45 AND 40 KT..RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 50 KT...ESSENTIALLY AN AVERAGE OF THE\r\nDVORAK NUMBERS.\r\n\r\nGREG WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS SITTING OVER\r\nSSTS OF APPROXIMATELY 24.5C...AND SSTS WILL BE COOLING TO NEAR\r\n23C TOMORROW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GREG TO WEAKEN INTO A\r\nDEPRESSION SATURDAY NIGHT AND TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING RATE OF SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT GIVEN THE COOLING SSTS ALONG THE TRACK...FASTER\r\nWEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE PRIOR PACKAGE GIVEN A\r\nGREATER DEGREE OF NORTHWARD DRIFT THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GREG WILL\r\nFOLLOW A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER\r\nTHE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nAS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHALLOW...A SLIGHT\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. EVEN WITH THE\r\nNORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST...THE TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT\r\nOR SOUTH SIDE SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 19.6N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 19.7N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 19.7N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 19.6N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 19.3N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 18.7N 126.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER WROE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 19 2011\r\n\r\nAFTER THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY\r\nRECOVERED NEAR THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS BURST APPEARS TO BE TEMPORARY AS THE CLOUD TOPS ARE ALREADY\r\nWARMING.  A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT\r\nAN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.  A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX\r\nOVER WATERS NEAR 23C IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  COOL WATERS\r\nAND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE GREG TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FORECAST ALONG\r\n125W...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO FEEL THE WEAKNESS\r\nAND CONTINUE MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.   THE GUIDANCE IS JUST A\r\nBIT FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER DURING THE FIRST DAY OR SO...AND THE\r\nNEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 19.7N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 19.8N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 19.8N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER A SMALL BURST OF MODERATE TO DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 00Z...\r\nCONVECTION HAS DWINDLED SOMEWHAT BOTH IN VERTICAL DEPTH AND\r\nAREAL COVERAGE SINCE THEN. A BRIEF EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nREVEALED AS THE CIRRUS CANOPY HAS THINNED. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/09. GREG REMAINS ON TRACK SO THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST RATIONALE. A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS FORECAST AS GREG\r\nCONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...BECOMING A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM AND BEING STEERED BY THE LARGE LOW-LEVEL CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nGREG IS CURRENTLY OVER 23.5C SSTS...AND ONLY COOLER WATER AND DRY\r\nSTABLE AIR LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT OF THESE\r\nUNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...GREG SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSTEADILY WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS OR SO...AND DISSIPATE BY 96\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 19.7N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 19.8N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 19.7N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 19.6N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 19.2N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 18.2N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n\r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FLARE CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF\r\nA WEAKENING GREG. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE 45 AND 35 KT...RESPECTIVELY...WHILE THE FINAL T NUMBERS CAME IN\r\nAT 35 AND 30 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35\r\nKT...ESSENTIALLY AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/09...AND LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GREG WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED ON A\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST TRACK TODAY BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE HIGH WILL BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST\r\nCOAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GREG...WHICH WILL\r\nBECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AND SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST\r\nSOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nGREG IS WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS AND IS INGESTING STABLE AIR FROM\r\nTHE NORTH. AN ASCAT PASS FROM LAST EVENING DETECTED WINDS OF 30 TO\r\n35 MAINLY WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE...AND THESE DATA HAVE BEEN\r\nINCORPORATED INTO THE WIND RADII AND INTENSITY. SSTS ARE BARELY\r\nOVER 23C AND WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A\r\nRESULT...GREG SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY SPIN\r\nDOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 19.7N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 19.8N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 19.7N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 19.4N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 19.0N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 18.0N 128.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/WROE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Greg","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n \r\nGREG HAS CHANGED LITTLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SIX\r\nHOURS...WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION STUBBORNLY PERSISTING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB BOTH CAME\r\nIN AT 30 KT...THOUGH A COINCIDENT ASCAT PASS DETECTED WINDS AROUND\r\n35 KT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN HELD AT 35 KT...AND GREG REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/08. GREG WILL BE STEERED ON A NEARLY DUE\r\nWEST TRACK TONIGHT BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE\r\nHIGH WILL BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A\r\nMID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON GREG...WHICH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW AND SHOULD BE STEERED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE HIGH.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE FULL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nGREG WILL BE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SSTS\r\nWILL BE HOVERING AROUND 23C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nSTABLE AIR IS INGESTED FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...GREG SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 19.9N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 19.9N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 19.7N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 18.9N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1800Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER WROE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 20 2011\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED ON THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE CENTER OF GREG OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. SATELLITE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...WHILE BOTH AGENCIES REPORTED A FINAL T-NUMBER\r\nINTENSITY OF 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS AN AVERAGE OF\r\nTHE DVORAK NUMBERS...AND GREG IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/06. GREG WILL BE STEERED ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TONIGHT BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL\r\nHIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS\r\nWEAKENING AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST...\r\nWHICH WILL LIKELY ALLOW GREG TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nEARLIER ANTICIPATED. AS GREG WEAKENS AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW IT SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST BY THE SURFACE RIDGE\r\nON SUNDAY AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND\r\nMONDAY. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE NORTH AGAIN AND\r\nIS ESSENTIALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nGREG WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER COOL WATERS. SSTS WILL REMAIN IN\r\nTHE RATHER COLD 22C TO 23C RANGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nAND STABLE AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE INGESTED FROM THE NORTH. AS A\r\nRESULT...GREG IS FORECAST TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM ON SUNDAY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 20.1N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 20.2N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 20.1N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 19.6N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 19.0N 126.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER WROE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Greg","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW PIXELS OF -50C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS WAS EVIDENT ON\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0600 UTC.  SATELLITE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE STILL 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT THAT\r\nTIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GREG MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL 22C TO 23C\r\nWATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  IF NO DEEP CONVECTION\r\nREDEVELOPS...GREG WOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nFOR A DECAYING SYSTEM...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.  SOME OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW GREG TAKING A DIVE TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OVER THE COMING DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND\r\nBAM MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nSINCE GREG IS BECOMING A SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM...I WAS INCLINED\r\nTO FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE ECMWF AND BAM SHALLOW MODELS AND MOVED\r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...ALSO ENDING UP NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 20.2N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 20.4N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 20.4N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 20.2N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 19.9N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Greg","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP072011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GREG DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 21 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GREG HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND IS NOW A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF\r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOUDS. BASED ON THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nGREG NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING\r\nDECLARED A REMNANT LOW ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/07.  THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER 22-23C WATERS...AS DEPICTED BY SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 20.3N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 20.2N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 20.1N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 19.9N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 19.5N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082011\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2011\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA VERY NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT T2.5...SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE PROXIMITY OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO LAND SHOULD PRECLUDE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST IN THE WATCH AREA\r\nTODAY.  ONCE INLAND...THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY\r\nOVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.\r\n \r\nTHE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY MAKES THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE...320/06...SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  A WEAK\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION AND\r\nULTIMATELY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ON A SLOW NORTHWESTERLY COURSE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO EMERGE\r\nFROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO MOVE INTO AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF GENERALLY LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE LIKELIHOOD OF REGENERATION SEEMS SLIM SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nOVER RUGGED TERRAIN LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nTO BE SEVERELY DISRUPTED.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS\r\nCOULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TO HIGHLIGHT THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS BEFORE THE DEPRESSION\r\nMOVES INLAND.  THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO BE HEAVY RAINS WHICH COULD...IN COMBINATION WITH THE\r\nSTEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 18.0N 102.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 18.7N 103.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 19.7N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 20.7N 105.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 21.5N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082011\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2011\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED INLAND AROUND 1600 UTC ABOUT 30\r\nNMI WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO. SINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME ELONGATED...AND THERE IS SOME\r\nCHANCE THAT THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING DETACHED. IN\r\nADDITION...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING AND THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED.\r\nWEAKENING APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN NOW THAT MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nOVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE DEPRESSION WILL BE\r\nFURTHER DISRUPTED AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION...340/06...IS A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE. A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION LIKELY BEING\r\nSTEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.\r\n \r\nLINGERING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH THE STEEP TERRAIN OF THIS REGION...HAVE THE\r\nPOTENTIAL TO STILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 18.5N 102.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 19.2N 103.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP082011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082011\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2011\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUED TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND\r\nHAS WEAKENED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW OVER THE STATE OF JALISCO. LINGERING HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...IN COMBINATION WITH THE STEEP\r\nTERRAIN OF THIS REGION...HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER\r\nON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 19.8N 103.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW \r\n 12H  01/1200Z DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM MEXICO AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS\r\nACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER WARM WATER AND REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS \r\nTHEREFORE ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION \r\nBECOMING A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/4.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. \r\nTHE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nWHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE TO INCREASE. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nHOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW CLOSE THE DEPRESSION COMES TO\r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS...AND THESE\r\nMODELS ARE ALONG THE RIGHT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nMEANWHILE...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF THE DISTURBANCE.  ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 13.4N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 13.6N  97.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 14.1N  98.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 14.6N  99.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 16.2N 104.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 18.5N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 21 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...AND THE\r\nLATEST MICROWAVE OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A\r\nLARGE CURVED BAND EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND A LESS-DEFINED BAND EXISTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nESTIMATES. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW TROPICAL STORM HILARY.\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS\r\nHILARY REMAINS IN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF\r\n28-29C. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE AGGRESSIVE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS AND THE LESS\r\nENTHUSIASTIC LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS. \r\n \r\nHILARY IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/5.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN\r\nWEAK STEERING FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...SO A CONTINUED SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.\r\nAFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING TO THE\r\nNORTH OF HILARY WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO ACCELERATE SOME AND REMAIN\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THE UNREALISTIC-LOOKING\r\nNOGAPS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE\r\nPROGRESS OF HILARY.  ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST COULD REQUIRE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 13.6N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 13.9N  97.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 14.5N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.1N 100.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 15.7N 101.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 16.8N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER HAS GAINED CURVATURE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED\r\nAND NOW SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND\r\nOCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS REMAIN FAVORABLE.  IN FACT...THE GFDL...\r\nHWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE MODELS BRING HILARY TO\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE STATUS IN THREE DAYS OR LESS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMODELS...IT IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF HILARY WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n305/5. A CONTINUED SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE HILARY REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER PACE AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN\r\nNUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT TWO\r\nTO THREE DAYS...BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 14.0N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 14.3N  97.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 14.9N  98.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 15.6N 100.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 17.4N 106.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 19.0N 112.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 21 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING REVEAL A DISTINCT RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION INDICATING THAT THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0\r\nYIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR AND\r\nTHE WARM OCEAN...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AND HILARY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY WITH THE GOOD POSSIBILITY OF\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS VERY CLOSE\r\nTHE STATISTICAL LGEM MODEL BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE HWRF.\r\n\r\nHILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY\r\nBUILD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS\r\nPATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nWITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nHWRF/GFDL PAIR WHICH TURNS HILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nOR THE GULF OF CORTES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE REST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS HILARY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH FIVE DAYS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE GOOD PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION...A TRACK NOT TOO FAR\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THE WIND RADII...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 14.4N  97.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 14.7N  98.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.2N  99.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 15.8N 101.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 16.5N 103.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 18.0N 107.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 18.5N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MICROWAVE PASSES...AND\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE\r\nOF HILARY CONTINUES TO QUICKLY IMPROVE WITH AN EYE FEATURE NOTED. \r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND\r\nT3.5...HOWEVER GIVEN THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND MOVE OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST\r\nWATER IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nAS A RESULT...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND A PERIOD OF\r\nRAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS LONG AS THE CORE REMAINS OFFSHORE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nPREDICTS HILARY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8 KT.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HILARY IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS\r\nA TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH SHOW HILARY CLOSER TO THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...TURN HILARY NORTHWARD AHEAD\r\nOF THE TROUGH INTO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nUKMET...GFS...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF...WHICH ALL SHOW A MORE SOUTHERN\r\nTRACK INITIALLY...KEEP HILARY ON A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AT LEAST THROUGH 120 HOURS.  GIVEN THE NORTHWARD BIAS OF\r\nTHE GFDL/HWRF IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS SEASON...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION KEEPING HILARY MOVING\r\nMORE WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SINCE HILARY SHOULD DECELERATE \r\nAS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 14.7N  98.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 15.2N  99.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 15.9N 101.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 16.4N 102.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 16.9N 104.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 17.9N 108.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 18.5N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 19.0N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 22 2011\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE INNER-CORE OF HILARY IS WELL ORGANIZED. A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS EVIDENT AROUND THE SMALL AND NEARLY CIRCULAR EYE. \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY AN\r\nOCCASIONAL EYE VISIBLE. A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS JUST\r\nWEST OF HILARY...AND IT IS UNKNOWN IF THAT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON\r\nTHE EVOLUTION OF THE CYCLONE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND ON THIS BASIS HILARY IS\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS.  \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF HILARY...WHICH COULD BE RAPID...IS\r\nLIKELY DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS\r\nIN A LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS AROUND 29C.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND\r\nBRINGS HILARY TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. \r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...HILARY WILL BE MOVING INTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.  THIS\r\nENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/9.  A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS AS THE HURRICANE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE\r\nREGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOWING RECURVATURE WHILE SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS KEEP HILARY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS NEAR THE ECMWF MODEL.  \r\n\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT HILARY IS A COMPACT HURRICANE WITH\r\nTHE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ONLY EXTENDING ABOUT 60 N MI FROM\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 15.1N  98.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.6N 100.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 16.2N 102.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 16.7N 103.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE EYE FIRST\r\nAPPEARED IN SATELLITE IMAGES AROUND 1500 UTC...AND IT HAS MORE\r\nDISTINCT SINCE THAT TIME. CLOUD TOPS ARE AS COLD AS -80C TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE EYE...AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nMORE SYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nHAVE INCREASED AND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 90 KT...AND\r\nTHAT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. HILARY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN FURTHER\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT REMAINS IN A CONDUCIVE\r\nENVIRONMENT. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR COULD INCREASE OVER THE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS\r\nFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS\r\nAND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nHILARY HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND\r\nTHE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9.  MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER HILARY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDURING THAT TIME.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THERE IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS WITH THE REGIONAL HURRICANE\r\nMODELS SHOWING A SHARP NORTHWARD TURN WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS KEEP HILARY ON A MORE STRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH.  OVERALL...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...LEANING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n\r\nAN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1644 UTC INDICATE THAT THE WIND RADII REMAIN\r\nQUITE SMALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 15.6N  99.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 16.1N 101.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 16.5N 102.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 17.1N 106.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 18.0N 109.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 22 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY IS A SMALL BUT POWERFUL HURRICANE. IT HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nDISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. BOTH OBJECTIVE AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115\r\nKNOTS. IN FACT...LATEST OBJECTIVE NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD\r\nBE EVEN STRONGER. SINCE THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND\r\nHIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING...HILARY\r\nCOULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HAVING\r\nSAID THAT...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR WILL BE FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN INTENSITY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A LESS\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. \r\n\r\nHILARY HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK WITH\r\nSOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...KEEPING THE CORE OF THE\r\nSMALL HURRICANE AWAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL/HWRF FAMILY TURNS\r\nHILARY NORTHWARD TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA OR THE SEA OF CORTES IN THE\r\nLONG RANGE. HOWEVER...THE MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO...AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 16.0N 100.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 16.4N 102.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 16.7N 104.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 17.0N 105.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 18.0N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY. THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE HURRICANE MAINTAINING A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 10 N MI WIDE EYE AND A RATHER SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST SURROUNDED BY A THICK RING OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0600 UTC WERE 6.5 AND SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM AS HILARY REMAINS IN A NEARLY IDEAL\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER VERY WARM WATERS. HOWEVER...\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO\r\nTIME...ARE LIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE INTENSITY WITHIN A DAY OR SO.\r\nONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AS WATERS ONLY GRADUALLY COOL AND THE SHEAR\r\nREMAINS FAIRLY LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n\r\nHILARY HAS JOGGED A BIT TO THE LEFT DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/10. THE RECENT CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE WEST SEEMS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO THE HURRICANE\r\nMOVING UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nWESTWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL STEER HILARY ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH\r\n96 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT TRENDS AND ON THE ASSUMPTION OF A\r\nSTRONGER RIDGE THROUGH THAT TIME...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nRELIABLE GFS/ECWMF MODELS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DUE TO THE DEPICTION OF A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS FEATURE COULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE HILARY TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN MORE NORTHWEST OR PERHAPS EVEN NORTH. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AT DAY 5 BUT REMAINS\r\nWELL LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 16.0N 101.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 16.2N 103.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 16.5N 104.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 16.9N 106.4W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 17.2N 107.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 17.9N 111.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 18.8N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 20.5N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY IS MAINTAINING ITSELF AS AN IMPRESSIVE MAJOR HURRICANE WITH\r\nVERY COLD AND SYMMETRIC CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A SMALL WARM EYE.\r\nBOTH THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUES\r\nSUGGEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 125 KT...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY ANALYZED\r\nTHIS MORNING. THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE SMALL\r\nAS INDICATED BY A LACK OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF A NEARBY ASCAT PASS AND A CIRA AMSU WIND RADII ESTIMATE.\r\nALSO...NO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT...PRIMARILY\r\nBEING STEERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF HILARY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO.  AT THE EXTENDED\r\nRANGE...HOWEVER...THERE EXISTS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE HILARY TOWARD\r\nMEXICO DUE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IMPINGING UPON THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED RIDGE...WHILE THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nINDICATE A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  OF NOTE IS THAT\r\nTHE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE NOW SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE WITH A\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION INDICATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AFTER PREVIOUSLY SHOWING\r\nA MORE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...THOUGH MORE OF A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHEAST AT THE EXTENDED RANGE COULD BE\r\nMADE LATER IF THE 12Z MODEL SUITE AGREES WITH THE TREND IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY...FOR ONCE...MAY BE EASIER TO PREDICT THAN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  HILARY SHOULD REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS...IN MOIST\r\nAIR...AND WITHIN LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS.  SO IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT HILARY WILL CONTINUE AS A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.  INTENSITY VARIATIONS THAT OCCUR MAY BE\r\nDOMINATED BY INTERNAL DYNAMICS...SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLES...WHICH WE HAVE VERY LIMITED ABILITY TO ANTICIPATE. BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS...\r\nLESS UNSTABLE AIR...AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIKELY\r\nRESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON\r\nTHE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 16.1N 102.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 16.2N 103.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 17.4N 108.9W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 111.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 19.0N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY STEADY STATE IN INTENSITY AND\r\nSTRUCTURE TODAY AS A SMALL CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. THE TAFB AND\r\nSAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES AS WELL AS THE ADVANCED DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE FROM CIMMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS OF 125 KT\r\n...WHICH IS THE INTENSITY ANALYZED THIS AFTERNOON. THE SIZE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE ALSO REMAINS QUITE SMALL AS INDICATED BY THE LIMITED COLD\r\nCLOUD ENVELOPE AND A 1621Z CIRA AMSU WIND RADII ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 7 KT...SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER THAN OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.  HILARY IS PRIMARILY BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE INFLUENCE OF A ZONALLY-ORIENTED DEEP-LAYERED\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS OR SO.  AT THE EXTENDED RANGE...HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO\r\nEXISTS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE GFDL..HWRF...AND\r\nEXPERIMENTAL GFD5 REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS RECURVE HILARY TOWARD\r\nMEXICO BY IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nIMPINGING UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE\r\nREMAINING RELIABLE GUIDANCE KEEPS HILARY ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRAJECTORY THROUGH FIVE DAYS...AS THEY DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ON HILARY.  IT NOW APPEARS FORTUITOUS THAT\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST DID NOT INDICATE A TRACK CLOSER TO\r\nMEXICO...AS THE 12Z GLOBAL AND GFDN MODEL SUITE HAVE SWUNG BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN\r\nTHESE MODEL RUNS TO THE WEST AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nWHILE HILARY HAS APPARENTLY NOT INTENSIFIED FURTHER TODAY...THE\r\nCYCLONE DOES HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS IT\r\nSHOULD REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATERS...IN MOIST AIR...AND WITHIN LOW\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IT IS QUITE LIKELY\r\nTHAT HILARY WILL CONTINUE AS A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT TIME.\r\nINTENSITY VARIATIONS THAT OCCUR MAY BE DOMINATED BY INTERNAL\r\nDYNAMICS...SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...WHICH WE HAVE VERY\r\nLIMITED ABILITY TO ANTICIPATE. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS...LESS UNSTABLE AIR...AND\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WHICH SHOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A WEAKENING\r\nTREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE LGEM AND SHIPS\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 16.3N 103.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 16.5N 104.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 16.8N 106.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 17.3N 109.6W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 23 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY CONTINUES TO BE RATHER\r\nSPECTACULAR ON BOTH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE\r\nDATA. IT IS SMALL BUT VERY SYMMETRIC WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED\r\nBY VERY STRONG CONVECTION. ALL SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES YIELD\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY GOOD\r\nPREVAILING ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION...HILARY COULD STILL\r\nGAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EVEN IF EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR AND RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY...HILARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AS A POWERFUL HURRICANE\r\nFOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nBECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE...AND HILARY SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN.  \r\n\r\nTRACKING THE EYE ON SATELLITE GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 280\r\nDEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE STEERING PATTERN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS\r\nNORMALLY VERY STEADY...AND THIS TIME IS NO DIFFERENT. THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE HILARY ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE WILL REACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND EVEN NORTHWARD BUT\r\nVERY SLOWLY. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY\r\nWHEN THE STEERING IS WELL ESTABLISHED. BEYOND 3 DAYS...THE GUIDANCE\r\nBECOMES REALLY DIVERGENT...BUT THE GENERAL TUNE IS FOR THE\r\nHURRICANE TO GAIN LATITUDE OR TO RECURVE.  IT COULD BE AN\r\nINTERESTING BUT DIFFICULT FORECAST BEYOND FIVE DAYS. I AM GLAD I DO\r\nNOT HAVE TO MAKE IT AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 16.7N 104.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 16.9N 105.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 17.3N 107.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 17.8N 110.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 18.0N 113.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 19.5N 115.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n\r\nWHILE HILARY CONTINUES TO FEATURE A VERY SMALL EYE SURROUNDED BY\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...CLOUD TOPS AROUND THE EYE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE EYE HAS BECOME A BIT LESS DISTINCT.\r\nA BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAS\r\nTRENDED DOWNWARD AS OF 0600 UTC...AND BASED ON THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 120 KT. GIVEN THE SMALL SCALE OF\r\nTHE CORE OF HILARY...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INCONCLUSIVE\r\nAS TO WHETHER AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS UNDERWAY. HOWEVER...\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HILARY HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DUE TO EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN FOLLOWED BY MORE\r\nRAPID WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD. NOTE THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD GIVEN THAT SMALL CHANGES IN THE\r\nTRACK OF HILARY COULD RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nTIMING OF WHEN THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE STRONG SST GRADIENT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT...A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HILARY WILL\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND MOST OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE NORTH OF HILARY BREAKING DOWN AS IT IS\r\nERODED FROM THE EAST AND THE WEST BY A PAIR OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS\r\nTHAT DEVELOP NEAR 30N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW HILARY TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nBY DAY 5...BUT THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE SPREAD IN THE DETAILS OF\r\nTHE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE TURN. FOR EXAMPLE...THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF ARE ABOUT 250 NM APART AT DAY 5...WITH OTHER MODELS EVEN\r\nFARTHER APART THAN THAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION OF ONLY 4 TO 5 KT IS FORECAST...\r\nFOLLOWING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 17.1N 105.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 17.4N 106.4W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 17.7N 108.0W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 17.9N 109.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 18.1N 111.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 19.5N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY IS EXHIBITING A PINHOLE EYE THIS MORNING AS\r\nEVIDENCED BY THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS AN\r\n0815Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS.  A CONSENSUS OF THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE FROM CIMSS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT 120 KT REMAINS THE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nSOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN JOGGING TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO A\r\nTROCHOIDAL OSCILLATION NOT UNCOMMONLY SEEN IN MAJOR HURRICANES.  A\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 270/10.  A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HILARY IS STEERED ALONG THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...A WEAKNESS\r\nDEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING IN\r\nFROM THE NORTHWEST...WHICH IS CURRENTLY SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NEAR 23N140W.  HILARY SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD NEAR 115W ON THOSE DAYS.  ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO TODAY\r\nCOMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AS NONE OF THE GUIDANCE ARE TAKING HILARY\r\nTO MEXICO WITHIN FIVE DAYS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF THE SHORT-TERM MOTION CHANGE\r\nAND THEN JUST TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A QUITE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\nAFTER WHICH...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BEGIN SOME\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF HILARY.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL SSTS SHOULD CAUSE AN EVEN\r\nQUICKER DECAY.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS BASED UPON THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 16.6N 106.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 17.1N 107.6W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 17.3N 109.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 17.5N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 17.6N 112.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 21.5N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY STILL IS EXHIBITING THE CLASSIC SIGNATURE OF A VERY\r\nINTENSE...BUT TINY...HURRICANE.  AS SEEN IN THE INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...VERY COLD SYMMETRIC CLOUD TOPS ARE SURROUNDING A 10 NM\r\nWIDE WARM EYE.  THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND THE CIMSS\r\nADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DROPPED\r\nSLIGHTLY...BUT ARE STILL SUPPORTING AN INTENSITY OF 115 KT.  A\r\n1457Z CIRA AMSU PASS PROVIDED GUIDANCE FOR THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS.\r\n \r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHORT-TERM TROCHOIDAL MOTION OVER THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...BUT A LONGER TERM DIRECTION AND SPEED OF 270/9 IS\r\nESTIMATED. A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT THE\r\nSAME SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS HILARY IS\r\nSTEERED ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE RIDGE DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HILARY SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR 115W ON THOSE DAYS. ALL OF THE RELIABLE TRACK\r\nMODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. IN\r\nFACT...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HILARY WILL UNDERGO A\r\nFUJIWARA-TYPE OF INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LOW WITH A MUTUAL\r\nCOUNTER-CLOCKWISE ROTATION OF THE TWO SYSTEMS.  THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY IN A QUITE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\nAFTER WHICH...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE MAY BEGIN SOME\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF HILARY.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL SSTS SHOULD CAUSE AN EVEN\r\nQUICKER DECAY.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS BASED UPON THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM/GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 16.9N 106.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 17.0N 107.9W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 17.2N 111.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 17.3N 113.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 24 2011\r\n \r\nALMOST EVERYTHING ABOUT HURRICANE HILARY HAS BEEN ALREADY SAID. THE\r\nHURRICANE IS SMALL AND INTENSE AND BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES\r\nCONTINUES WITH 115 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO REPORT AT THIS\r\nTIME EXCEPT THAT THE LATEST AMSR IMAGE SHOWS TWO CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nSURROUNDING THE INNER CORE...AND THESE BANDS COULD BECOME AN OUTER\r\nEYEWALL. IF SO...IT SHOULD RESULT IN SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN\r\nINTENSITY IN THE SHORT TERM. THIS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED IN EVERY\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR HILARY TO\r\nBEGIN WEAKENING SLOWLY. \r\n\r\nHILARY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS...STEERED\r\nBY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 3 MORE DAYS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A DEEP TROUGH OR A LOW IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF HILARY...AND THIS NEW PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD. THE MOST MARKED DIFFERENCE BETWEEN TODAY AND\r\nYESTERDAY AT THIS TIME IS THAT NOW ALL TRACK MODELS EVENTUALLY TURN\r\nHILARY NORTHWARD. YESTERDAY...JUST A FEW MODELS DID SO. THIS\r\nINCREASES THE CONFIDENCE THAT HILARY SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD...AND\r\nTHEREFOE IT IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS TURN AT THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD MAKE THE WEAKENING TREND MORE\r\nMARKED SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nWATERS FASTER THAN IF THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WESTWARD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 17.1N 107.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 17.2N 109.0W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 17.3N 110.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.5N 112.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.0N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE OF HILARY HAVE WARMED A BIT\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK CI- AND FINAL-T NUMBERS AT 06Z FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE 5.0 AND 6.0...RESPECTIVELY. LEANING TOWARD\r\nTHE HIGHER END OF THE CI/FINAL-T NUMBER BLEND...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY TO SHOW HOW THE INNER CORE OF HILARY HAS\r\nEVOLVED...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INNER-CORE DYNAMICS SUCH AS\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES WILL RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. OTHER THAN THOSE FLUCTUATIONS...GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS HILARY MOVES INTO\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. THE NEW NHC FORECAST AT THOSE TIMES IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES OF THE CENTER OVER THE PAST\r\n12 TO 18 HOURS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08...AS HILARY\r\nCONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW NOW LOCATED NEAR 25N 135W MOVES EASTWARD. AS THE RIDGE\r\nWEAKENS...HILARY SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THEN AS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nAMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST OF HILARY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE DRAWN NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON DATA FROM\r\nA 0450 UTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 17.0N 108.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 17.1N 109.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 17.1N 111.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 17.2N 113.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 17.3N 114.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 18.2N 116.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE ON INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAS\r\nDECREASED SLIGHTLY.  ON VISIBLE IMAGES...THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nSOMEWHAT OBSCURED BY MIDDLE OR LOW CLOUDS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 110\r\nKT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS\r\nAND IN A LOW-SHEAR ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SO VERY LITTLE WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY WILL PROBABLY OCCUR AS A\r\nRESULT OF INNER-CORE CHANGES SUCH AS EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS...HOWEVER\r\nTHESE CHANGES ARE VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nASIDE FROM SOME WOBBLES...THE TRACK OF HILARY HAS BEEN WESTWARD OR\r\n275/8.  A CONTINUED WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 24N 135W IS PREDICTED TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD AND BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN 3 TO 5 DAYS...AND MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS SHOW HILARY TURNING SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTH IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 17.2N 109.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 17.3N 110.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 17.4N 112.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 17.5N 113.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 17.9N 115.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 19.3N 116.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HILARY HAS MAINTAINED A PRONOUNCED EYE\r\nFEATURE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH HAS\r\nBECOME EVEN MORE DISTINCT AND WARMER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nT5.0/90 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON THE RECENT WARMING AND CLEARING OUT\r\nOF THE EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nAVERAGE OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AS A MAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nHILARY HAS BEEN MOVING IN A STEADY WESTWARD MOTION OR 270/9 KT FOR\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS STEERING FLOW PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT. BY 72 HOURS...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW...INDICATED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 23N 134W...IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND\r\nALLOW HILARY TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...HILARY IS\r\nFORECAST TO UNDERGO SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER-LOW AND\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n\r\nHILARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME AND OVER\r\nWARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...WHICH WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST MAINTAIN A STEADY INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE HURRICANE IS ALREADY FAIRLY\r\nDRY AND IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW 40 PERCENT HUMIDITY BY 24-36\r\nHOURS. A 25/1511Z SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED DRY AIR\r\nALREADY BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE INNER\r\nCORE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY CAUSE EROSION OF THE CONVECTION AROUND\r\nTHE EYE FAIRLY SOON. AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...WITH MORE RAPID WEAKENING AFTER THAT AS\r\nHILARY MOVES OVER WATER COLDER THAN 24C AND INTO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE TREND OF INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON...THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AND THEN IS BELOW THE CONSENSUS MODEL AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 17.1N 110.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 17.2N 111.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 17.3N 113.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 17.6N 114.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 18.1N 115.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 19.7N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 22.1N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 25.0N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2011\r\n \r\nWHILE THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS TO FOLLOW THE INNER CORE EVOLUTION...IT SEEMS THAT HILARY HAS\r\nCOMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...AS THE EYE HAS GROWN A LITTLE\r\nLARGER AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE LATEST\r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM\r\n5.5 TO 6.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...WHICH SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 110\r\nKT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INGESTING SOME DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR\r\nTHAT IS LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE ICON CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND THEN IS CLOSER TO LGEM AND FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH BOTH WEAKEN HILARY MORE RAPIDLY LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 27N133W IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nRIDGE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE HILARY TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nTURN NORTHWARD.  AFTER THAT...THE MODELS INDICATE THAT HILARY WILL\r\nACCELERATE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nUPPER LOW.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nTHERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AS TO EXACTLY WHEN HILARY TURNS\r\nNORTHWARD...AND HOW FAST IT ACCELERATES.   FOR NOW...THE NHC TRACK\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE\r\nNORMALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.9N 111.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 16.9N 112.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 17.0N 114.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 17.2N 115.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 17.6N 116.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 19.6N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 25.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HILARY HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST IS SOMEWHAT LESS\r\nSYMMETRIC AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A BIT ELONGATED FROM\r\nNORTH TO SOUTH. THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING IN\r\nINTENSITY...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES RECENTLY BEGINNING TO COOL\r\nAGAIN. DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC DECREASED TO T5.5 FROM BOTH\r\nAGENCIES. BASED UPON THESE DATA AND THE SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED\r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 105\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH HILARY HAS LOST SOME LATITUDE DURING THE LAST 6-12\r\nHOURS...A LONGER-TERM MOTION FROM RECENT FIXES IS 270/09. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A WEAKENING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO\r\nSTEERING HILARY ON A WESTWARD COURSE WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR A RATHER ABRUPT NORTHWARD TURN AS HILARY BEGINS\r\nTO DUMBBELL AROUND A CUT-OFF LOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NEAR 26N 132W. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THIS\r\nFEATURE PROGRESSES EASTWARD AND EXACTLY HOW HILARY INTERACTS WITH\r\nIT ACCOUNT FOR TRACK FORECAST VARIATIONS AMONGST THE MODELS LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SOUTH AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST BUT IS RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HILARY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR COULD BE AN ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR\r\nMASS TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH MAY OR MAY NOT BE INGESTED BY HILARY.\r\nON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE LATTER WILL NOT PRODUCE A PARTICULARLY\r\nADVERSE EFFECT...ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THIS TIME. A RAPID DECAY IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 72 HOURS AS\r\nSHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW AND A DRAMATIC COOLING\r\nOF THE WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE MODEL OUTPUTS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 16.9N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 16.8N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 16.9N 114.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 17.0N 116.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 17.6N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 19.6N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 22.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 25.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HILARY HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COOLING\r\nAROUND A CONTRACTING EYE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE\r\nAND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n110 KT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HILARY MAY HAVE\r\nUNDERGONE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVERNIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL\r\nEYEWALL CYCLES ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. OUTSIDE\r\nOF THESE INNER-CORE PROCESSES...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nSLOW WEAKENING IS IN ORDER OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THAT TREND IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...HILARY WILL\r\nBEGIN MOVING ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nINCREASING SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING. AT DAYS\r\n3 THROUGH 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE LGEM MODEL\r\nGIVEN THE VERY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/09...AS HILARY CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSTEERED WESTWARD BY THE WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ITS NORTH. THIS\r\nRIDGE WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A SHARP\r\nNORTHWARD TURN IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AS HILARY BEGINS\r\nTO INTERACT WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 27N 132W.\r\nTHIS LOW IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE EASTWARD TO A POSITION\r\nJUST WEST OF HILARY IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE THIS CYCLE IS AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE GFS AT DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...AS THAT MODEL SHOWS A WEAKER MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THAT TIME. THIS MORE EASTWARD\r\nTRACK PUTS THE GFS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND MOST OF THE ECMWF\r\nENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THIS LARGE SHIFT...I PREFER TO WAIT FOR THE\r\nFULL SUITE OF 12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A BIT TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND IS BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF MODEL AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS\r\nAND RECENT AMSU WIND RADII ANALYSES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 16.7N 113.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.8N 114.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 16.9N 115.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 17.3N 116.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 18.1N 116.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 20.4N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.5N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 26.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2011\r\n\r\nHILARY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH AN\r\nEXPANDING AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS AROUND A MORE DISTINCT 10 NM WIDE\r\nEYE SEEN IN RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 115 KT BASED ON FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nALONG WITH THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES. OTHER THAN CONTINUING\r\nFLUCTUATIONS DUE TO INNER-CORE DYNAMICS...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS \r\nSLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HILARY MOVES OVER\r\nGRADUALLY COOLING WATERS. HILARY SHOULD BE ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM\r\nBY 72 HOURS...AND RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW INCREASES OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/09...AS THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...PERHAPS\r\nIN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HILARY. A SLOWER WESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A SHARP\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 48 HOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nHILARY BREAKS DOWN. THROUGH THIS TIME THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT TIME THE INTERACTION \r\nOF HILARY WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 27N 132W WILL BE\r\nCRITICAL TO THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL LOW AMPLIFYING AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION\r\nWEST OF HILARY BY 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...AND THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS REPRESENT TWO DISTINCT SCENARIOS FROM THAT TIME\r\nONWARD. THE GFS TURNS HILARY QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS AND\r\nINTERACTS LESS WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA BY DAY 5. CONVERSELY...\r\nTHE ECMWF MOVES HILARY CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN\r\nMORE INTERACTION AND HILARY TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWESTWARD BY DAY 5.\r\nGIVEN THIS INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AND THE PLAUSIBILITY\r\nOF BOTH SCENARIOS...THE NHC FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AT DAYS\r\n3 THROUGH 5 AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION. THIS FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO BUT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE\r\nEAST OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND TO THE WEST OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE\r\nAVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IN THE EAST PACIFIC\r\nBASIN IS 175 TO 225 MILES. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.6N 114.0W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 115.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 16.8N 116.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 17.5N 116.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 18.4N 116.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 26.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS DEGRADED SINCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WITH THE EYE FILLING AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS\r\nWARMING.  AS A RESULT...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...AND A BLEND OF THESE NUMBERS\r\nYIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  HILARY HAS STARTED ITS\r\nPROGRESSION OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nPREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AND OVER MUCH COLDER WATER DURING THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE HILARY TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND THEREAFTER IT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF 8 KT. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N131W IS\r\nBEGINNING TO SLIDE EASTWARD.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE RIDGE THAT\r\nHAS BEEN STEERING HILARY WESTWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN.  THE HURRICANE IS THEN FORECAST TO TURN SHARPLY\r\nNORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER-LOW AS\r\nIT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.  THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS MODEL REMAINS\r\nALONG THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE...TURNING HILARY\r\nNORTHWARD MUCH SOONER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nEARLIER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THIS MODEL\r\nKEEPS HILARY OVER WARMER WATER AND IN LESS SHEAR...AND CONSEQUENTLY\r\nMAINTAINS THE CYCLONE AS A DEEP SYSTEM THAT MOVES QUICKLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE HURRICANE MOVING MORE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...WHICH RESULTS IN THE CYCLONE REACHING COOLER WATER\r\nSOONER.  THE LATTER MODELS THEN WEAKEN HILARY AND DEPICT A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM THAT SLOWS DOWN AND EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC FORECAST PUTS LESS WEIGHT ON THE\r\nGFS SOLUTION...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS FAR LEFT AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nMODELS.  THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...\r\nNOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 16.6N 114.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 16.8N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 17.2N 116.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 17.9N 116.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 19.1N 116.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 21.7N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 24.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING. WHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nPULSING...THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS RECENTLY DISAPPEARED AND THE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE EXACT CAUSE IS UNCLEAR...INNER CORE STRUCTURAL CHANGES MAY BE\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT DEGRADATION OF SATELLITE APPEARANCE.\r\nSUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND ADT VALUES HAVE DECREASED\r\nFURTHER SINCE 0000 UTC...AND A BLEND OF T AND CI NUMBERS IS THE\r\nBASIS FOR LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 100 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...HILARY IS ALREADY DEPARTING THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE\r\nBASIN. IN FACT...ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT WILL BE ABOUT HALF OF ITS CURRENT VALUE A DAY FROM\r\nNOW. INNER CORE DYNAMICS NOTWITHSTANDING...A STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY DURING THIS TIME. AFTER THAT...HILARY SHOULD ENCOUNTER\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRAMATICALLY COOLER WATERS...\r\nBOTH OF WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...WITH HILARY NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW A DAY\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS BEEN WOBBLING...BUT A SMOOTHING OF CENTER FIXES YIELDS A\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST...265/09. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE GUIDING HILARY WESTWARD TO BREAK DOWN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS SHOULD CAUSE HILARY TO TURN SHARPLY\r\nNORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BUT DIFFERS ON HOW SOON\r\nTHE TURN WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS SOLUTION...AS IT HAS IN PREVIOUS\r\nCYCLES...LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MODEL SUITE SINCE IT\r\nBREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE SOONER.  WHILE THIS OUTCOME CANNOT BE\r\nCOMPLETELY DISCREDITED...IT SEEMS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE\r\nCONTINUED STEADY MOTION TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nPLACES GREATER WEIGHT ON THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH DELAYS\r\nTHE TURN.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT HILARY WILL ROTATE AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCURRENTLY SLIDING EASTWARD FROM 28N129W. THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION\r\nWITH THIS FEATURE WILL AT LEAST BE PARTLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE HILARY\r\nULTIMATELY TURNS NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND IS NEAR BUT TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 16.6N 115.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 16.8N 116.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 17.4N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 18.4N 117.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 22.1N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 24.5N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z 27.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nAFTER DECREASING OVERNIGHT...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AGAIN\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF HILARY...EVEN THOUGH AN EYE IS NO LONGER\r\nAPPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY OR THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF 12Z DVORAK\r\nCI- AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS HILARY MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...\r\nFOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C\r\nISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OUTPUT FROM THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING RAPIDLY AROUND 48 HOURS AND CONTINUING\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHEAR...IN COMBINATION\r\nWITH HILARY MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATERS BY DAY 3 AND BEYOND\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY 4 DAYS. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY LIES BETWEEN THE OLD ONE AND THE LGEM THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM BEYOND THAT TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/09. HILARY SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nCONTINUES TO WEAKEN. AFTER THAT TIME A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nIS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS HILARY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN\r\nAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 28N 129W.\r\nOVERALL...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED THIS\r\nCYCLE...AS THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS SHOWS HILARY BEING PULLED A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER WESTWARD BY THE MID-LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD AND\r\nHAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUITE. THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A SMALL SHIFT\r\nTO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE TVCE\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF THROUGH 96 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN AT DAY 5. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 16.8N 116.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 17.1N 117.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 17.9N 117.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 19.0N 117.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 20.2N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 25.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z 27.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF HILARY HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW LARGELY NORTH AND\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER. AN EYE IS OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...BUT NOT WELL DEFINED IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. HILARY SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...CROSSING THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM BY 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND\r\nREACHING ABOUT 30 KT BY 48 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID\r\nWEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME.\r\n\r\nHILARY HAS NOW TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND SLOWED A\r\nLITTLE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/06. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nSHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 36 HOURS AS HILARY IS PULLED NORTHWARD BY AN\r\nAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE HURRICANE FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD\r\nTHE LEFT FOR THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\nMUCH OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD A CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...BUT STILL LIES WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH REMAINS\r\nAN OUTLIER TO THE RIGHT. \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 17.1N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 17.5N 117.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 18.4N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 19.4N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 20.7N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 23.0N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 25.0N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF HILARY HAS DEGRADED THIS EVENING WITH THE EYE\r\nBECOMING LESS DISCERNIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES.  HOWEVER...RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW A RATHER DISTINCT EYE...BUT THE\r\nCONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED.\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ALL\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING.  A PERIOD\r\nOF RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY AFTER 24 HOURS...AS SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR INCREASES AND THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 26\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nFORECAST SHOWS HILARY TO BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS\r\nCOMMENCED AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/6.  HILARY SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF\r\nAN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL LOW.  THE NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AFTER HILARY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT\r\nIS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nHAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WHICH YIELDS MORE CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHIS FORECAST.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 17.4N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 18.1N 118.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 19.0N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 21.3N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 23.3N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z 25.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL IS STILL IN TACT...THE ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DECREASED FURTHER DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED IN APPEARANCE AND\r\nTHE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING. A BLEND OF\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK T AND CI NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE INTENSITY\r\nTO 80 KT. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS STILL NEGLIGIBLY\r\nLOW...HILARY IS MOVING ALONG A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD CROSS THE 26C-ISOTHERM WITHIN ABOUT\r\n18 HOURS. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE A CONTINUED...STEADY WEAKENING. THE\r\nRATE OF DECAY SHOULD ACCELERATE AFTER 24 HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO SUDDENLY INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE INGESTS AN\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHE FSSE GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE OF HILARY APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED A BIT TO THE LEFT IN RECENT\r\nHOURS...WITH A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF RECENT CENTER FIXES YIELDING\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/06. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. HILARY SHOULD TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH VERY SOON AS IT MOVES\r\nFARTHER INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...\r\nCREATED BY A MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR\r\n27N128W SHOULD THEN CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND CYCLONICALLY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24-72 HOURS. AFTER BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nPOST-TROPICAL HILARY TURNING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT AND IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n\r\nA SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE WIND RADII BASED UPON\r\nDATA FROM A 0528 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 17.7N 118.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 18.4N 118.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 19.6N 118.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 20.8N 118.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 22.0N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 25.0N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z 25.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":30,"Date":"2011-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR THE CENTER OF HILARY...AND\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE WEST\r\nSIDE. DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FINAL-T\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. HILARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN\r\nSTEADILY AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM LATER TODAY AND\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES TO NEAR 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF HILARY SHEARING OFF\r\nAND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS...\r\nWITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY DAY 5. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/6...AS HILARY CONTINUES TO TURN\r\nPOLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID-LEVEL LOW\r\nIS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG 128W TOWARD HILARY...AND THIS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO DRAW THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD UNTIL IT SHEARS\r\nAPART. AFTER 72 HOURS THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AS IT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGING. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FOR\r\nTHIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE NEW\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND SHOWS A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION AT 96 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nA NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL BE CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION INTO HILARY\r\nLATER TODAY AND PROVIDE VALUABLE INFORMATION ON THE STRUCTURE AND\r\nINTENSITY HILARY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 18.4N 118.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 19.2N 118.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 20.4N 119.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 21.5N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 22.6N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 24.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 24.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilary","Adv":31,"Date":"2011-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON A RESEARCH MISSION HAS FOUND\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN HILARY REMAIN AROUND 70 KT...BASED ON A\r\nPEAK SFMR WIND OF 68 KT AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM OF 82 KT.\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 980 MB IS BASED ON A DROPSONDE MEASUREMENT\r\nOF 982 MB WITH 17 KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE. HILARY IS CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND THE COMBINATION OF MUCH COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING\r\nAS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEARS OFF AND LEAVES THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BEHIND OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. BY 48 HOURS THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-23C\r\nWATERS. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL\r\nDISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/07. HILARY\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON\r\nTHAT HEADING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS PULLED NORTHWARD\r\nBY A MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG 128W. AS THE CYCLONE\r\nSHEARS APART...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nTHEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST ON DAYS 3 AND 4 AS IT COMES UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED AGAIN TOWARD THE WEST FOR THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NHC TRACK LIES A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nAND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE FASTER ECMWF MODEL AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 19.0N 118.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 19.8N 119.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 21.0N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.1N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 24.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":32,"Date":"2011-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2011\r\n \r\nSINCE THE NOAA RESEARCH MISSION DEPARTED HILARY THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO DECLINE.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS ARE DECOUPLING.  BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND\r\nCI-NUMBERS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT.  RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS HILARY MOVES OVER COLDER WATER\r\nAND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN \r\nABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.  THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF\r\n325/7 IS BASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AIRCRAFT FIX AND\r\nTHE EARLIER AMSU IMAGE.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nAS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 19.6N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 21.6N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 22.7N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 23.5N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 23.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":33,"Date":"2011-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nCOLDER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON HILARY. THE\r\nCOVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHRINKING AND CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE WARMING. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HILARY HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE\r\nHIGHER-LEVEL CIRCULATION. IN ACCORDANCE WITH A BLEND OF T- AND CI-\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT. THE RATE OF DECAY IS LIKELY\r\nTO ACCELERATE FURTHER NOW THAT A DECOUPLING OF THE CIRCULATION HAS\r\nOCCURRED...NOT TO MENTION THE EVEN HIGHER SHEAR FORECAST AND COLDER\r\nWATERS ALONG THE TRACK. THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SPIN\r\nDOWN...AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN\r\nLINE WITH THE STATISTICAL/ DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HILARY IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE USING\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. LUCKILY...A COUPLE OF EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nMAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING...325 DEGREES...AT 6 KNOTS. SO\r\nLONG AS THE CIRCULATION OF HILARY MAINTAINS SOME VERTICAL\r\nINTEGRITY...THE TRACK SHOULD DUMBBELL CYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST. AFTER THE\r\nDECOUPLING OF THE CIRCULATION IS COMPLETE...THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION\r\nAND ULTIMATELY ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND THEN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS...THE LATEST TRACK PREDICTION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT FOLLOWING THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT\r\nMATERIALLY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 20.0N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 20.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 23.0N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 23.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 23.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 22.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":34,"Date":"2011-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY STOPPED PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AND A\r\nBLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  AS IS\r\nUSUALLY THE CASE WITH DECAYING EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES...\r\nHILARY COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION...BUT IT\r\nSHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT NOW THAT THE CIRCULATION IS OVER\r\n23-26C WATER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR HILARY TO GRADUALLY\r\nSPIN DOWN AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOUR OR SO. \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY\r\n4.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE AT 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  NOW THAT IT\r\nIS BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE REMNANT LOW OF HILARY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THEREAFTER...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD ALONG 32N...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN\r\nWESTWARD FROM 48 HOURS THROUGH ITS DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO CONDUCT A RESEARCH\r\nMISSION IN HILARY LATER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL\r\nDATA ON THE CYCLONE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 20.4N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 21.3N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 22.3N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 23.0N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 23.3N 122.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":35,"Date":"2011-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2011\r\n \r\nA NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION IN\r\nHILARY MEASURED A PEAK SURFACE WIND OF 44 KT FROM THE SFMR AND A\r\n7000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 55 KT WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY RESET TO 45\r\nKT.  THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1000 MB BASED ON DATA FROM A DROPSONDE\r\nRELEASED IN THE SECOND PASS THROUGH THE CENTER.  HILARY IS ONLY\r\nPRODUCING ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS.  EVEN IF HILARY STOPS\r\nPRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT COULD TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR\r\nTHE WINDS TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  THIS IS NOTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BY THE POST-TROPICAL DESIGNATION AT 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A TROUGH BY 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  HILARY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDS ALONG 32N BY 24 HOURS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD FORCE THE REMNANT\r\nLOW WESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS EVEN SUGGEST THAT HILARY COULD ACQUIRE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nMANY THANKS TO THE NOAA HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION AND AIRCRAFT\r\nOPERATIONS CENTER FOR THE DATA RECEIVED DURING THE RESEARCH\r\nMISSION.  HOPEFULLY THIS DATA WILL GO A LONG WAY IN HELPING US\r\nPROVIDE BETTER INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES WEAKENING\r\nOVER COLDER WATERS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 21.6N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 22.5N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 23.4N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 23.8N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 23.8N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 23.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilary","Adv":36,"Date":"2011-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 29 2011\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS BELOW 23 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO ONLY PRODUCE A FEW INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nCONSERVATIVELY TO 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED A HIGHER INTENSITY \r\nTHAN THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON FRIDAY. \r\n \r\nHILARY HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 21.9N 120.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 22.6N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 23.2N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 23.4N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 23.3N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilary","Adv":37,"Date":"2011-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HILARY DIMINISHED AROUND 0200 UTC\r\nYESTERDAY EVENING...AND ALL THAT REMAINS IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IN\r\nTHE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD WHICH IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION.\r\nCONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN ABSENT QUITE LONG ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  A 0448 UTC ASCAT PASS\r\nSHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 25-KT WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER.  GIVEN THE\r\nWELL-DOCUMENTED LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KT. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY\r\nMOVES OVER 22-23C WATERS.  DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 2-3\r\nDAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06.  STRIPPED OF ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND NOW SHALLOW IN NATURE...HILARY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. \r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION COULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR EVEN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A\r\nTAD TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT FASTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 22.5N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 23.0N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 23.3N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 23.4N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 23.3N 123.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hilary","Adv":38,"Date":"2011-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY HAS BEEN PRODUCING A LITTLE BIT OF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...BUT IT CAN HARDLY BE DESCRIBED AS DEEP SINCE CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE BARELY REACHING -50C.  THE DEPRESSION HAS GONE\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DISSIPATION INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 3.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  HILARY IS FORECAST TO\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SLOW SPEED BEFORE\r\nIT DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS.  MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUPPORTS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nNORTHEAST OF...AND SLOWER THAN...THE TVCE CONSENSUS SINCE THE ECMWF\r\nMODEL INDICATES A MOTION CLOSER TO DUE NORTH. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 23.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 23.4N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 23.6N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 23.7N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 23.7N 123.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hilary","Adv":39,"Date":"2011-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP092011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HILARY DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 30 2011\r\n \r\nHILARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE AN AREA OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW CONVECTION\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...BUT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COMPLETELY WARMED\r\nABOVE -50C.  SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION\r\nFOR AT LEAST 18 HOURS...HILARY IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON A 1716\r\nUTC ASCAT PASS...BUT HILARY IS OVER WATERS OF 22C AND SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW IS BEING STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nHILARY.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 23.6N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 23.8N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 23.8N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 23.7N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 23.5N 124.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 05 2011\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH\r\nOF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED.  A CDO-LIKE FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES TO -90C HAS RECENTLY FORMED...WITH MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.     \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC BUT\r\nTHIS WAS BEFORE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MASS DEVELOPED. BASED ON THE\r\nSUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nINITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/09.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS...AN\r\nUNSEASONABLY STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE\r\nTRACK OF THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 72 HOURS AS IT COMES\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE\r\nREGION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF ALL OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION...SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS OF RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. \r\n\r\nSHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CURRENTLY DIAGNOSE MODERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT SHEAR OF ABOUT THIS MAGNITUDE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS BY SHOWING ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS\r\nTIME.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN STRENGTH AROUND THE POINT\r\nOF RECURVATURE AND JUST PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN\r\nWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS OF\r\nLOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY\r\nREGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 10.0N 105.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 10.2N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 10.6N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 11.1N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 11.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 13.6N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 15.6N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 17.4N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nAPPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT\r\nKEEPING THE WIND SPEED AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME.  THE FORECAST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEARS\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER WARM WATERS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. \r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nMOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS DUE TO A RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\nTHIS RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN BY DAY 3 AS A STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nINTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY\r\nFASTER AND FARTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN EARLIER...AND GIVEN THE\r\nGENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS WORTH\r\nNOTING THAT MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS STILL FARTHER TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO OCCUR LATER\r\nTODAY. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 10.3N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 10.7N 106.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 12.4N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 13.6N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 15.1N 109.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AN EARLIER 85-GHZ SSM/I\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE FROM FNMOC SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED\r\nNEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL 37-GHZ CHANNEL WAS LESS CONCLUSIVE.  THE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nREPOSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER ESTIMATES...BUT IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT IT IS LOCATED EVEN FARTHER EAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT AND...GIVEN THE LACK OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM WILL BE\r\nKEPT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN A\r\nLOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AS A\r\nRESULT...STEADY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. \r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL DURING\r\nTHE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE HFIP INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/7.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERLY PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL \r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nRECURVE AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS\r\nSTILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTURN AND HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES AS IT NEARS MEXICO.  THE\r\nGFS...HWRF...AND GFDL SHOW A MORE GRADUAL RECURVATURE THAN THE\r\nUKMET AND ECMWF.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nAFFECTING SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS DUE\r\nTO THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER.  THEREAFTER IT HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED TO THE LEFT...BUT NOT AS FAR LEFT AS THE TVCE CONSENSUS\r\nOUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF.\r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 AS THE AVERAGE TRACK ERROR IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT\r\nTHAT TIME FRAME IS ABOUT 175 TO 225 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 11.5N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 12.2N 107.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 13.1N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 14.2N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 18.8N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 20.0N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND THE\r\nSHEAR PATTERN APPEARS TO BE STEADILY EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A\r\nBANDING PATTERN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nAND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.6/37 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. THESE ESTIMATES\r\nARE FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 06/1654Z ASCAT OVERPASS THAT INDICATED\r\n30-KT WINDS EXISTED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OUTSIDE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. AS A RESULT...TD-10E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM JOVA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/09 KT...BASED MOSTLY ON MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE FIXES. JOVA IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 650 NMI EAST OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM IRWIN. ALTHOUGH IRWIN PRESENTLY HAS\r\nBETTER BANDING FEATURES...THE TWO CYCLONES ARE COMPARABLE IN SIZE.\r\nGIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER...SOME BINARY/FUJIWHARA\r\nINTERACTION IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD\r\nBRING THE TWO CYCLONES CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND ALSO SLOW DOWN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF BOTH SYSTEMS. BY 72 HOURS...A BROAD MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nU.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH\r\nOF JOVA. THE RESULT SHOULD BE FOR JOVA TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST ACCOMPANIED BY A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND LIES SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS\r\nFAR SOUTH AND AS SLOW AS THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION. GIVEN THAT AT\r\nLEAST HALF OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH LIES TO THE\r\nWEST OF AND...THEREFORE...OUTSIDE OF THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER-AIR\r\nOBSERVING NETWORK...IT WOULD PRUDENT NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nTRACK CHANGES AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nJOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 28C... IN A\r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REGIME...AND IN A VERY MOIST MID-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT WITH HUMIDITY VALUES OF 70-80 PERCENT. THIS WOULD\r\nUSUALLY EQUATES TO A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR STEADY OR EVEN RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT\r\nREFLECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKE JOVA A\r\nHURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...WITH STEADY WEAKENING FORECAST AFTER THAT.\r\nIN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS STEADILY STRENGTHEN JOVA TO\r\n85 KT AND 100 KT...RESPECTIVELY...BY 96 HOURS. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE\r\nPARAMETERS MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE HWRF MODEL SOLUTION. ALTHOUGH JOVA IS FORECAST TO BE INLAND\r\nOVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY 120 HOURS...TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING INDICATED AT THAT TIME DUE TO THE OUTER WIND FIELD...WHICH\r\nCOULD STILL CONTAIN TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nOFFSHORE AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 SINCE THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT\r\nTHAT THOSE TIME PERIODS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 12.5N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 13.4N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 14.3N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 15.0N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 16.2N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 18.0N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 19.2N 106.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 20.5N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INCORRECTLY TRANSMITTED DISCUSSION\r\n\r\nJOVA IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 10-15 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS HAS DISPLACED THE STRONG AND PERSISTENT\r\nCONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/9.  JOVA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES DIGS SOUTHWARD.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE\r\nPRESENCE OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN TO THE WEST...SHOULD STEER JOVA\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY\r\nRECURVATURE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THIS MOTION WOULD BRING JOVA\r\nTOWARD THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 4-5 DAYS TIME.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IN\r\nMEXICO.  TWO OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFDL AND HWRF...WHICH BOTH SHOW\r\nA MORE NORTHERLY MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE AND THUS CALL FOR\r\nLANDFALL FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  WHILE THE INTERACTION\r\nBETWEEN JOVA AND IRWIN MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE....CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE SYSTEMS WILL\r\nREMAIN FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE DIRECT\r\nINTERACTION.\r\n\r\nWHILE JOVA REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A MOIST\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE CURRENT SHEAR IS NOT INITIALIZED PROPERLY BY ANY\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THAT MAKES IT A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO\r\nDETERMINE WHEN IT MAY DIMINISH.  THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AFTER\r\n24 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITIES BEFORE LANDFALL BASED\r\nON THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS...WHICH FORECAST MORE TIME OVER WATER...SHOW JOVA\r\nBECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING MEXICO.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 SINCE THE AVERAGE TRACK ERRORS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN AT\r\nTHAT THOSE TIME PERIODS ARE 175 TO 225 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 13.0N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 13.9N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 14.8N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 15.7N 110.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 16.6N 109.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 18.0N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 20.0N 106.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 21.5N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n \r\nAN 0414 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOVA IS\r\nLOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...AND ABOUT 50 KT\r\nFROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45\r\nKT.  MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY AFFECTING JOVA\r\nIS FORECAST TO ABATE DURING THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS AS JOVA MOVES\r\nBENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.  THEREFORE...CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS INDICATING\r\nABOUT A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN RAISED DURING THE FIRST\r\n48 HOURS RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES VERY NEAR THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY NOT HAVE\r\nBEEN RAISED ENOUGH.  THE FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AFTER 48 HOURS AND IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH APPEAR TO SUGGEST THAT THE ATMOSPHERE IS TOO\r\nSTABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE\r\nFORECAST...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER 72 HOURS\r\nBEFORE JOVA REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10 KT.  JOVA IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nTURN SHARPLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING THIS TURN...ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER\r\nTHAN THE OTHER MODELS AND BRINGS JOVA TO THE MEXICAN COAST ALMOST A\r\nDAY EARLIER THAN THE REST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE\r\nMAIN CLUSTER OF MODELS AND SHOWS JOVA REACHING THE COAST JUST\r\nBEFORE 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 13.4N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 14.1N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 14.9N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 15.8N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 16.6N 109.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 20.5N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n \r\nJOVA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME\r\nCURVED BAND FEATURES FORMING IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  MICROWAVE\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nSOME OVERSHOOTING TOPS NOTED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE A RATHER WIDE SPREAD THIS MORNING...\r\nRANGING FROM ABOUT 40 KT FROM CIMSS AMSU TO 65 KT FROM TAFB.  THE\r\nOVERALL MICROWAVE STRUCTURE IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE...SO THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS ONLY RAISED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  JOVA SHOULD\r\nHAVE AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH WARM\r\nSSTS ALONG ITS PATH.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS RAISED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS.  THIS FORECAST COULD BE STILL\r\nON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE THE GFDL/HWRF MAKE JOVA A CATEGORY\r\nFOUR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7 KT.  JOVA IS IN THE PROCESS OF SLOWING\r\nDOWN AND TURNING TO THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND AN\r\nERODING RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER JOVA TOWARD TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  WHILE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN THE GLOBAL MODELS... THERE ARE LARGE\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED OF THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH THE GFS\r\nMUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL...RESULTING IN A SPREAD OF 500 N MI\r\nBY DAY 4.  WITH THE UNCERTAINTY INCREASING...IT IS BEST TO KEEP THE\r\nFORECAST SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 13.7N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 14.4N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 15.2N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 15.8N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 16.6N 109.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 18.2N 107.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF JOVA CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY SHEAR.  VERY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IS EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SUBJECTIVE\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 55 KT AND 65 KT FROM SAB/TAFB...AND A\r\nLARGE AREA OF 45 KT WIND VECTORS WERE NOTED IN A RECENT ASCAT PASS. \r\nTHE LOWER DVORAK ESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE GIVEN\r\nTHE SHEAR PATTERN AND THE ASCAT DATA... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS SET TO 55 KT.  THE CURRENT NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD ABATE\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS JOVA MOVES CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF AN\r\nUPPER ANTICYCLONE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY AFTER TOMORROW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF STRENGTHENING IN THE EARLY PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST...FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION BY LATE SATURDAY. \r\nTHE LATEST NHC PREDICTION REMAINS BETWEEN THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS AND\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS OVER\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.  BY LATE SATURDAY...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nOR EAST-NORTHEAST IS LIKELY DUE TO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE SPEED DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nREMAIN RATHER NOTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER HUGE DISAGREEMENT IN\r\nTHE LONG RANGE FORECAST BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS HAS BEEN\r\nSOMEWHAT REDUCED.  THIS TYPE OF SITUATION USUALLY WARRANTS A\r\nFORECAST CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND SINCE THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TREND IN THAT GUIDANCE...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nIN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 14.6N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 15.3N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 15.9N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 16.5N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 16.9N 108.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 18.2N 106.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 20.5N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A SHEARED\r\nSYSTEM...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING ABOUT 10 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE\r\nORGANIZATION ARE UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n\r\nJOVA IS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW\r\n350/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCOVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...ENOUGH TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA TO\r\nSLOWLY STEER JOVA IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS MOTION\r\nSHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO IN 3-4 DAYS TIME.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND LANDFALL TIME BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS-BASED\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE CENTER\r\nNEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 72 HOURS AND WELL INLAND AT 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO ABATE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS.  IF THIS VERIFIES...JOVA SHOULD START TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS\r\nFORECAST JOVA TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-75 KT BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL...WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW LIGHT SHEAR FROM\r\n24-72 HOURS...SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHY SHIPS AND LGEM DO NOT SHOW MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD QUICKLY\r\nWEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 15.3N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 15.9N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 16.4N 109.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 16.9N 108.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.4N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 21.5N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT LOCATING THE CENTER OF JOVA...BUT BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY IT APPEARS TO NOW BE EMBEDDED BENEATH A LARGE CONVECTIVE\r\nCANOPY.  DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\n60-65 KT FROM THE OBJECTIVE ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n55 KT...BUT IF THE CENTER REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION...THIS\r\nCOULD BE THE START OF A STRENGTHENING TREND.\r\n\r\nJOVA IS LOCATED DUE SOUTH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MAKING A NORTHWARD TURN AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n005 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW\r\nDEVELOPING NEAR ITS BASE AND EFFECTIVELY STEERING JOVA TOWARD THE\r\nEAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND. \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...THE STEERING PATTERN BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED WITH\r\nANOTHER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND POTENTIALLY CUTTING OFF AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW. \r\nALL OF THE TRACK MODELS SHOW JOVA RESPONDING TO THIS BY MAKING A\r\nSHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AT 72 HOURS AND APPROACHING THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. \r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF EVEN KEEP THE CYCLONE NEAR OR JUST OFF THE COAST\r\nAT 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AT THAT POINT BUT IS STILL INLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS EXTREMELY COMPLEX.  THERE IS A BIG\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE AGGRESSIVE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH BRING\r\nJOVA TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH WEAKEN JOVA TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nMAY BE TOO STABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER LEVELS TO SUPPORT\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...AND THE EASTWARD MOTION DOES NOT\r\nNORMALLY SUPPORT A LOT OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN PULLED BACK A BIT AFTER 48 HOURS UP UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL...BUT IT IS STILL SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 15.9N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 16.3N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 16.5N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 16.6N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 18.0N 105.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 21.5N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS BEEN\r\nDRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS OR SO. NOW THAT THE\r\nNOCTURNAL BURSTING PATTERN HAS SUBSIDED...THE CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION  APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLE INTO A CDO PATTERN...WITH A\r\nSMALL RING OF OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS ENCIRCLING THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. ALTHOUGH A 08/0947Z AMSU OVERPASS DID NOT SHOW MUCH MEAT ON\r\nTHE BONES IN TERMS OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION...THE CONVECTION\r\nSINCE THAT TIME APPEARS TO HAVE INCREASED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND A\r\n2-HR UW-CIMSS ADT AVERAGE OF T3.7/59 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/03 KT. JOVA IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHOSE AXIS LIES ALONG 16N LATITUDE. AS A RESULT\r\nOF THE WEAK STEERING FLOW IN THIS AREA...PLUS SOME BINARY\r\nINTERACTION WITH HURRICANE IRWIN LOCATED TO THE WEST...JOVA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...NOTED JUST NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nMORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...A\r\nSECONDARY TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FIRST\r\nTROUGH AND GRADUALLY LIFT OUT JOVA TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THERE\r\nREMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE LATTER FORECAST\r\nPERIODS...THE OVERALL TREND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO\r\nCONVERGE ON LANDFALL ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE 84 TO 96\r\nHOUR TIME FRAME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT STILL LIES TO THE\r\nNORTH AND WEST OF THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.\r\n \r\nJOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME FOR\r\nANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN FOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE CONTAMINATED BY UPPER-LEVEL WARMING CREATED\r\nIN THE MODEL AS IT STRENGTHENS JOVA. LIKEWISE...THE STRONG VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOWN IN THE MODEL IS LIKELY DUE TO ENHANCED OUTFLOW THAT\r\nDEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. IT IS WORTH\r\nNOTING THAT BOTH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS MAKE JOVA A CATEGORY 4\r\nHURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS WELL ABOVE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 15.8N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.0N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 16.1N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 16.2N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 18.3N 105.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 21.5N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPED ALL\r\nTHE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS\r\nSHOWS AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...SO JOVA IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN DRIFTING FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 075/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE PACIFIC NORTH\r\nOF JOVA AND IRWIN EAST OF 130W.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER\r\nJOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY AN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nBRINGS JOVA NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS AND\r\nOVER MEXICO BY 96 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.  THE TRACK\r\nLIES SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD\r\nALLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90\r\nKT WHILE THE LGEM MODEL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT. \r\nGIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 16.0N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.0N 109.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.1N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 16.3N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 17.4N 105.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 18.4N 105.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 22.0N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOVA HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IS\r\nPRESENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS\r\nCURRENTLY GOOD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nJOVA IS NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/4.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS\r\nAS A SECOND TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\nTHIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC\r\nWEST OF MEXICO BY 120 HOURS.  THE FIRST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO STEER\r\nJOVA SLOWLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE SECOND TROUGH BECOMES THE\r\nMAIN STEERING INFLUENCE.  MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS JOVA\r\nMAKING LANDFALL IN 72-96 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF\r\nAND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN AFTER 48\r\nHOURS AND TAKE THE CENTER OVER OR WEST OF CABO CORRIENTES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL NOT SHOW THIS SHARP OF A TURN...AND IT CALLS\r\nFOR LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST JOVA TO BE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nAT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW INTENSIFICATION...\r\nAND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL STILL CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 90 KT WHILE THE LGEM\r\nMODEL STILL SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 70-75 KT.  GIVEN THE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF AND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.0N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 16.0N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 15.9N 107.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 16.7N 105.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 19.0N 104.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 23.0N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT JOVA HAS STRENGTHENED.  RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN IMPROVING INNER-CORE STRUCTURE WITH\r\nA CLOSED EYEWALL...WHILE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS IS NOTED IN INFRARED PICTURES.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE AROUND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT THAT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE JOVA SHOULD PROVIDE SOME\r\nGROUND TRUTH DATA THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT THE HURRICANE IS MOVING EASTWARD\r\nABOUT ABOUT 5 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOVA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  A SECOND TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD TURN JOVA\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.  THE\r\nUPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nIS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4...AND\r\nSHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO IN ABOUT THREE\r\nDAYS.  SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 N\r\nMI...USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE PRECISE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nJOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS MAKE JOVA A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WHILE\r\nTHE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AGAIN SHOWS LESS INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THE\r\nSEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND BRINGS JOVA TO MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS\r\nIN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 16.0N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 15.9N 108.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 15.9N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 16.2N 105.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 16.6N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 19.0N 104.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH \r\nA 09/0936Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED THE EYE WAS OPEN TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME INDICATES\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND HAVE WRAPPED AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE \r\nA DEVELOPING WARM SPOT OR EYE IN THE CENTER OF THE SMALL CDO.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77\r\nKT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.6/79 KT. BASED ON\r\nTHIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA AND SHOULD PROVIDE\r\nA BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT JOVA IS\r\nMOVING EASTWARD...OR 090/05 KT...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nRATIONALE. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO IN WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A BROAD\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO ITS SOUTH. BY 48 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CAUSE JOVA TO\r\nLIFT OUT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN SPEED DIFFERENCES...\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING\r\nSCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED ALONG THE\r\nCOAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 60-72 HOURS...USERS SHOULD NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR\r\nAT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 NMI.\r\n \r\nTHE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM STILL APPEAR TO BE\r\nSUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE GFS MODEL DUE TO WARMING\r\nTHE ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO CREATING EXCESSIVE SHEAR OWING TO ENHANCED\r\nOUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOVA BY 48 HOURS. BOTH\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE BY 48\r\nHOURS...AS DO THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT FORECASTS OF MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS BY THE LATTER TWO MODELS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...\r\nCOUPLED WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL. JOVA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...AND THEN WEAKEN\r\nQUICKLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL\r\nLIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 16.2N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 16.2N 106.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 16.6N 105.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 17.5N 105.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 20.3N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 23.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n \r\nAN EYE APPEARED IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR MOST OF THE\r\nLATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON UNTIL THE LAST HOUR WHEN IT BECAME\r\nCLOUD-COVERED DUE TO A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nEYEWALL. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY JUST A TEMPORARY ABERRATION. AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOVA\r\nFOUND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 976 MB ON ITS LAST PASS THROUGH THE\r\nCENTER...DOWN 3 MB FROM ITS FIRST PASS THROUGH AN HOUR PRIOR. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING CONSERVATIVELY MAINTAINED AT 80 KT BASED\r\nON PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 79 KT AND 81 KT...WHICH ARE SUPPORTED BY A\r\nDROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 77 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/07 KT. JOVA IS ON TRACK AND THERE IS\r\nNOTHING NEW TO DISCUSS CONCERNING THE TRACK FORECAST. OTHER THAN\r\nSPEED DIFFERENCES...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AFTER\r\nTHAT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS...\r\nWHICH HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON A LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF\r\nMANZANILLO FOR THE PAST 48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED\r\nALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 60 HOURS...USERS\r\nSHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE\r\nFORECAST ERROR AT THAT TIME PERIOD IS ABOUT 100 NMI.\r\n \r\nJOVA HAS A ROUGHLY 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE BASED ON RECON DATA.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CDO FEATURE...WHICH IS FURTHER EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER\r\nOF A SYMMETRICAL OUTFLOW PATTERN. JOVA HAS ALL THE CLASSIC SIGNS OF\r\nBECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR ABOUT HALF OF\r\nALL THE HURRICANES THAT HAVE FORMED SO FAR THIS YEAR IN THE EASTERN\r\nNORTH PACIFIC BASIN. BASED ON THE VERY FAVORABLE CURRENT AND\r\nEXPECTED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS\r\nSURROUNDING JOVA...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN\r\nAND BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nQUICKLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL...ICON.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 16.2N 107.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 16.4N 106.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 17.1N 105.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 18.2N 104.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 23.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n \r\nJOVA REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY\r\nCOLD-TOPPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET\r\nTO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW CIMSS. HIGH CLOUD AND\r\nWATER VAPOR MOTIONS SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL\r\nDEFINED OVER MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. JOVA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN\r\nAN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW SHEAR AND ABUNDANT\r\nMOISTURE AND OVER SSTS NEAR 29 DEG C. AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPACKAGE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE HURRICANE TO REACH\r\nCATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nJOVA CONTINUES ON A GENERALLY EASTWARD TRACK...OR 080/6.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A BROAD BUT WEAK DEEP-LAYER\r\nWESTERLY FLOW.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WILL SOON BUILD NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO...AND THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENT SHOULD CAUSE JOVA\r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT\r\nPROJECT MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSINCE THIS FORECAST SHOWS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nJOVA REACHING THE COAST IN 36 HOURS...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS\r\nCHANGED THE HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES TO WARNINGS AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK\r\nAND FORECAST LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A\r\nPOINT AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF A LITTLE\r\nMORE THAN 100 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 16.5N 107.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 16.6N 106.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 17.0N 105.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 17.9N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 19.1N 104.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 22.0N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 24.0N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOVA HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nOVERNIGHT WITH THE SMALL EYE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 105 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY AS THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY FROM EYEWALL CYCLES COULD\r\nOCCUR...BUT JOVA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH\r\nLANDFALL IN MEXICO.  GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS...THE UPDATE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS NEAR THE\r\nUPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nJOVA HAS SLOWED DOWN OVERNIGHT.  THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE \r\nIS 085/4 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OR\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  A SECOND TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD WEST\r\nOF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CUT-OFF IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE JOVA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...AND\r\nNORTHWARD IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND SHOW JOVA APPROACHING THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST\r\nLANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE\r\n36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AN AVERAGE ERROR OF ABOUT 75\r\nAND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 16.3N 107.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 16.6N 106.4W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 17.3N 105.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 18.1N 105.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 22.5N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 24.5N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE IS APPARENT IN THE FIRST FEW\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AND THE EYE HAS\r\nWARMED BY MORE THAN 30C IN INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nAS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...THE SURROUNDING RING OF\r\nCOLDEST TEMPERATURES HAS HAD INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN IT. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 110 KT...JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO RECONNOITER JOVA...WHICH\r\nWILL PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nA BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JOVA IS BEGINNING TO\r\nIMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. FARTHER\r\nEAST...12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO HAVE\r\nINCREASED BY 30-50 METERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH MEANS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF JOVA. THE RESULT\r\nIS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY SOON.\r\nTHE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SHORT-RANGE\r\nSCENARIO. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE MODELS\r\nBEING IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...RECENT\r\nMODEL RUNS NOW SHOW A MUCH WIDER VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACKS. THE\r\nUKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE JOVA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND\r\nFARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN CONTRAST...THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD FROM ITS\r\nCURRENT POSITION AND KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE. THE HWRF...\r\nECMWF...AND TVCN AND HFIP CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nEXTREMES AND ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. AS A RESULT...\r\nA BLEND OF THOSE MODELS WERE USED IN CONSTRUCTING THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST TRACK...WHICH LIES JUST A TAD EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK. \r\n\r\nJOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 29C UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOVA COULD\r\nBECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TODAY. JOVA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE CAN EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND DOWN...IN RELATIVELY SHORT TIME\r\nPERIODS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BE AT LEAST\r\nA MAJOR HURRICANE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...\r\nGFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH HAVE THUS FAR PERFORMED QUITE WELL\r\nWITH JOVA.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST\r\nLANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE\r\n36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75\r\nAND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 16.3N 106.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 16.6N 106.2W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 17.3N 105.5W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 18.5N 104.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 20.1N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 22.0N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 24.5N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING JOVA\r\nFOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL MAXIMUM WINDS OF 114 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nQUADRANT AND A BELIEVABLE SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 109 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE LAST DROPSONDE REPORT IN THE EYE INDICATED A\r\nSURFACE PRESSURE OF 956 MB...BUT WITH A SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 15\r\nKT. AS A RESULT...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 955 MB.\r\nBASED ON THE RECON INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED\r\nAT 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NO CHANGES HAD TO MADE TO THE VARIOUS\r\nWIND RADII BASED ON THE RECON WIND DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/04 KT. JOVA HAS FINALLY MADE THE LONG\r\nANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A BUILDING\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD TURN\r\nTHE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH BY 48 HOURS. THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD AND NOW LIES ALONG THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST\r\nTRACK. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO\r\nTHE NHC HFIP TV15 AND TVCN CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nJOVA HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED OUTFLOW PATTERN NOTED IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY WITH OUTFLOW JETS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS NEAR 30C...\r\nESPECIALLY AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS A\r\nRESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AND JOVA COULD STILL BECOME A CATEGORY 4\r\nHURRICANE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE JOVA REMAINS A RELATIVELY SMALL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...\r\nESPECIALLY IF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OCCUR. HOWEVER...JOVA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...EVEN THOUGH\r\nSOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND AS THE\r\nCYCLONE NEARS THE MOUNTAINOUS COASTAL TERRAIN. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND\r\nHWRF MODELS. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A WESTERLY FETCH OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF JOVA EVEN AFTER THE CYCLONE IS INLAND AT 48 HOURS...THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO\r\nCORRIENTES NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST\r\nLANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE\r\n36-HOUR TRACK FORECAST HAS AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75 MILES. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 16.8N 106.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 17.2N 105.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 18.2N 105.2W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 19.5N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 21.1N 104.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 22.7N 104.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 24.5N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n\r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY...\r\nAND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 105 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF\r\nT- AND CURRENT INTENSITY VALUES.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL\r\nDEFINED EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND JOVA WILL BE PASSING OVER 30\r\nDEG C SSTS AS IT NEARS THE COAST.  ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS INDICATED BEFORE LANDFALL...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY ONCE\r\nTHE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE MAY WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION OF JOVA HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST OR ABOUT 030/6.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INTO EASTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  TWO OF\r\nTHE TRACK PREDICTION MODELS THAT TYPICALLY PERFORM QUITE WELL...THE\r\nGFS AND THE ECMWF...HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST OF THEIR PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST...BUT IS EAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. \r\nTHIS IS STILL CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.  IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHIFT\r\nWESTWARD...HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MIGHT BE NECESSARY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 17.4N 106.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 18.0N 105.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 19.1N 105.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 20.5N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 21.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 23.5N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS DEGRADED WITH THE EYE NO LONGER CLOSED AND ONLY THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE EYEWALL INTACT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB....AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AGAIN\r\nDECREASED.  THE WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 100 KT...WHICH\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.  JOVA\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AND REMAIN IN\r\nMODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL.  NEARLY ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED BEFORE\r\nTHE HURRICANE REACHES MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR\r\nA SLIGHT REDUCTION IN INTENSITY...AND JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A \r\nPOWERFUL HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...AND JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED\r\nBELOW. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030/5 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE\r\nUPDATED TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nEARLIER TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 17.5N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 19.9N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 21.3N 105.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 22.2N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 23.5N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JOVA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE HURRICANE IS PRODUCING CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE EYEWALL...AND THE EYE IS OCCASIONALLY\r\nVISIBLE IN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 100 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE\r\nA BIT GENEROUS AS THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SOMEWHAT\r\nLOWER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY\r\nEN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/4.  JOVA IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THAT TIME.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nDIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER LANDFALL...POSSIBLY DUE TO HOW THE MODELS\r\nHANDLE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...\r\nJOVA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR AT MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT\r\nREACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.  AFTER THAT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS\r\nJOVA CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO\r\nDUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW\r\nINTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 17.8N 105.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 19.0N 105.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 20.3N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 21.4N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 22.1N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 23.5N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED JOVA AND\r\nREPORTED THAT THE HURRICANE HAS WEAKENED SINCE THE FLIGHT\r\nYESTERDAY.  THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 95 KT...AND\r\nTHE MAXIMUM ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS FROM THE STEPPED FREQUENCY\r\nMICROWAVE RADIOMETER WERE 78 KT.  THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE WAS 973 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 85 KT.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 10-15 KT OF SOUTHERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...WHICH MIGHT BE THE CAUSE OF THE OBSERVED WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 030/5...AND IN THE SHORT-TERM THE CENTER\r\nMAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN 5 KT.  JOVA IS ON THE WEST SIDE\r\nOF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO...WHILE WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WITH THE CENTER CROSSING\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nDIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER LANDFALL...POSSIBLY DUE TO HOW THE MODELS\r\nHANDLE THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AGAIN\r\nA UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND IT REMAINS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nSOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nWESTERN MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TIME OF DISSIPATION IS NOW JUST AFTER\r\n48 HOURS...WHICH IS 24 HOURS EARLIER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nIT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT JOVA COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO\r\nDUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW\r\nINTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 18.3N 105.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 19.3N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 20.4N 104.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 21.4N 104.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 22.2N 104.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n \r\nJOVA IS MAINTAINING A VERY COLD-TOPPED CDO FEATURE...BUT NO EYE IS\r\nAPPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES.  SSM/I IMAGERY DID\r\nDEPICT AT LEAST A PARTIAL EYEWALL STRUCTURE...HOWEVER. \r\nDVORAK-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB RESPECTIVELY AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED\r\nUPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND THE HURRICANE IS OVER VERY\r\nWARM WATERS.  NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER\r\nOF JOVA CROSSES THE COASTLINE.  ONCE INLAND...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH INCLUDES AN INLAND DECAY MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nLAND MASS MAY CAUSE AN EVEN MORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN THE TYPICAL\r\nINLAND DECAY...SO JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN\r\nHERE.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED A\r\nLITTLE AND THE MOTION IS NOW 020/7.  JOVA IS MOVING ON THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THIS RIDGE MOSTLY DISSIPATED IN A DAY OR SO...AS\r\nANOTHER RIDGE DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF JOVA.  THIS STEERING PATTERN\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED TO A CRAWL\r\nWITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH WIND AND SURGE ARE OBVIOUSLY A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD ALONG THE\r\nCOAST...INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO IS ALSO A BIG CONCERN.  HEAVY\r\nRAINS FROM JOVA ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO\r\nTHE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 19.0N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 19.9N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 20.4N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 20.7N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 21.0N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jova","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nBEFORE THE CENTER OF JOVA MOVED INLAND...AN EYE WAS BRIEFLY APPARENT\r\nIN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN\r\n0000 AND 0300 UTC SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE. THEREFORE IT\r\nIS ESTIMATED THAT JOVA MAINTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 85 KT UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL AROUND 0500 UTC. SINCE LANDFALL THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED...WITH MOST OF THE COLD TOPS NOW LOCATED SOUTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n75 KT. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS JOVA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND\r\nAND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. THE\r\nNHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS AND THE LGEM...MAKING JOVA A\r\nTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND SHOWING DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT JOVA COULD WEAKEN FASTER AND\r\nDISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nJOVA ACCELERATED A LITTLE AND TURNED NORTHWARD AS IT MADE\r\nLANDFALL...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/8. AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF JOVA WEAKENS...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DRAMATICALLY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH ONLY A\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ADJUSTED FOR THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION.\r\n \r\nEVEN AS JOVA WEAKENS AND THE WIND AND SURGE THREATS DECREASE...\r\nINLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY\r\nRAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN\r\nMEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nUPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 19.9N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 20.7N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 21.0N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 21.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jova","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n\r\nJOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nWESTERN MEXICO...WITH A NOTABLE WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nTOPS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS FROM\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN 55 KT.  SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER\r\nLAND..STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH JOVA FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY\r\nSHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5.  JOVA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nEVEN AS JOVA WEAKENS AND THE WIND AND SURGE THREATS DECREASE...\r\nINLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN A MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY\r\nRAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN\r\nMEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nUPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 20.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 21.3N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 21.5N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jova","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n\r\nJOVA HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...THERE ARE NO SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...AND A RECENT ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS SHOWED NO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER WATER WEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION...ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nARE POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  JOVE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERLAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS OR\r\nLESS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF JOVA HAS BECOME A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO TRACK...AS IT IS\r\nUNCLEAR WHETHER THE UPPER AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION ARE\r\nSTILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED.  THE INITIAL POSITION...BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA...YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF 005/5.  A GENERALLY NORTHWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH JOVA HAS WEAKENED...INLAND FLOODING OVER MEXICO WILL REMAIN\r\nA MAJOR CONCERN. HEAVY RAINS DUE TO JOVA ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE\r\nACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SLOW\r\nMOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 21.4N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 21.8N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 22.1N 104.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Jova","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP102011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JOVA LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN FACT...IT MAY\r\nNO LONGER HAVE A SURFACE CIRCULATION SINCE THE ROTATION SEEN ON THE\r\nSATELLITE ANIMATIONS MIGHT BE ONLY THAT OF A VORTEX ALOFT. \r\nADVISORIES ON JOVA ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT OF JOVA SHOULD DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nWITHIN A DAY OR LESS...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY\r\nRAINS OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 21.7N 104.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 22.0N 104.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS\r\nACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED MARKEDLY IN A CYCLONICALLY\r\nCURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY\r\nIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0\r\nON THE DVORAK SCALE...YIELDING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLOW STRENGTHENING.\r\nSINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE\r\nTROUGH. THEREFORE...A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD TURN IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THE GFS COMBINES THIS\r\nCYCLONE WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E AND MOVES THE ENTIRE COMPLEX\r\nSYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THIS IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 11.9N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 12.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 13.0N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 14.0N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 15.0N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 16.0N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 17.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nWRAPPING ABOUT HALFWAY AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 2.5...CORRESPONDING TO AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL DEFINED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE EAST.  SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE OVER IRWIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PARTIALLY\r\nDUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE NOT FAR TO THE\r\nEAST.  SLOW STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED...FOLLOWING THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES REQUIRE A SLIGHT RELOCATION TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.  THE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY TO THE NORTH OF IRWIN.  THIS CHANGE\r\nIN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  SINCE ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE SITUATED 7 TO 10\r\nDEGREES TO THE EAST...SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS IS\r\nPROBABLE.  AT THIS TIME THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR IRWIN TO\r\nTRAIL THE NEIGHBORING CYCLONE AS THE LATTER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST.  IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE HOWEVER THAT THE TWO\r\nCYCLONES WILL MOVE MORE IN TANDEM TOWARD THE COAST...AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY RECENT GFS MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 12.4N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 12.7N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 13.0N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 13.5N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 13.8N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 14.0N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 15.5N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n\r\nWELL...SO MUCH FOR THE SLOW STRENGTHENING THAT WAS FORECAST IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IRWIN HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND\r\nFEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER-DEFINED AND IS EXPANDING.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT...IN\r\nCOMPARISON TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE\r\nEAST...IRWIN IS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM.  THIS IMPLIES THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE EASTERN CYCLONE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN ADVERSE\r\nIMPACT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS IRWIN STRENGTHENING\r\nINTO A HURRICANE.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS MOVED A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR\r\n295/7...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF IRWIN IS FORECAST TO RETREAT AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE STEERING PATTERN...IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE RIGHT AND DECELERATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IRWIN SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTOWARD MEXICO IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH.  THE LATEST\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS\r\nIS BETWEEN THE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF GUIDANCE\r\nAND THE SLOWER ECMWF FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 12.8N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 12.9N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 13.6N 118.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 14.1N 117.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 14.5N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 06 2011\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A\r\nTRMM OVERPASS NEAR 2000 UTC INDICATED A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...AND SINCE THAT TIME THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN\r\nCOOLING IN WHAT APPEARS TO BE A DEVELOPING EYEWALL.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 55 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS THUS INCREASED TO 55 KT...AND THIS COULD BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AGAIN A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE AT 295/9. \r\nIRWIN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES\r\nDIGS SOUTHWARD.  THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH A LARGE AREA OF\r\nDEVELOPING WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IRWIN AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOVA TO THE EAST...IS EXPECTED TO STOP THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT IRWIN SHOULD MOVE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE\r\nSPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  AFTER THAT...IT IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT\r\nIRWIN AND JOVA ARE FAR ENOUGH APART THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY\r\nDIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORMS TO AFFECT THE MOTION.\r\n \r\nIRWIN IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL WINDS SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C.  THESE...COMBINED\r\nWITH THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...ARE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS\r\nFOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF OF 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL ITSELF FORECASTS AN\r\n80 KT INTENSITY IN 24 HOURS.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS IS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nNOW SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR WILL CAUSE IRWIN TO\r\nWEAKEN.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 13.4N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 13.7N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 14.1N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 14.4N 119.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 14.5N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 14.5N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 15.5N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS GRADUALLY WARMING.  THERE ALSO\r\nWAS A LULL IN THE DEEP CONVECTION...BUT NEW CONVECTION IS\r\nDEVELOPING IN THE EYEWALL.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\n65 KT AT 0600 UTC...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 70-75\r\nKT.  BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE IMPROVED CONVECTION SINCE THE\r\nSYNOPTIC HOUR...IRWIN IS NOW A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 70 KT.\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN AS HAS BEEN FORECAST...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 300/9 KT.  ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD VIRTUALLY STOP ON A DIME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAS THE STEERING CURRENTS AROUND THE CYCLONE COLLAPSE.  A VERY SLOW\r\nEASTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS IRWIN BARELY FEELS THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BROAD...THE\r\nWESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE FARTHER SOUTH AND BEGIN TO\r\nACCELERATE IRWIN EASTWARD BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE TRACK MODELS AGREE\r\nON THE GENERAL FORECAST PATH BUT DIFFER ON THE FORECAST SPEED...\r\nESPECIALLY BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THAT TIME...LEANING IN THE\r\nDIRECTION OF THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH\r\nA CHANGE OF 50 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  AN 0145 UTC WINDSAT PASS\r\nINDICATED THAT IRWIN HAS A STRUCTURE THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE HURRICANE IS OVER SSTS OF ABOUT\r\n28C...SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. \r\nIN FACT...THE RI INDEX IN THE NEWEST SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT\r\nTHERE IS A 3 IN 10 CHANCE OF ANOTHER PERIOD OF RI DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THEREFORE HIGHER THAN MUCH OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS BEFORE LEVELING OFF NEAR THE\r\nSHIPS OUTPUT FROM 36-72 HOURS.  ONE ARGUMENT AGAINST POSSIBLE RI IS\r\nTHE FACT THAT THE THERMOCLINE IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW NEAR\r\nIRWIN...AND THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS COULD\r\nUPWELL COLDER WATER AND LIMIT INTENSIFICATION.  GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED DURING DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE DURING THAT PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 13.7N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 14.1N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 14.4N 120.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 14.4N 119.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 14.4N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 15.0N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 16.0N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS A FAIRLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH SEVERAL\r\nSURROUNDING CONVECTIVE BANDS...BUT AN EYE IS NOT VISIBLE ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON THE DVORAK EMBEDDED CENTER\r\nPATTERN FOR ESTIMATING INTENSITY...THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS SET TO\r\n75 KT.  ASSUMING THAT THE SYSTEM MOVES ENOUGH SO THAT THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF OCEANIC UPWELLING IS MINIMAL...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS...\r\nINCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 300/7.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nBROAD MID- TO LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS MORE OR LESS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE IN PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS IS\r\nFASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MOST OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT\r\nPASS WHICH SHOWS THE CYCLONE TO BE SMALLER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 13.9N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 14.2N 120.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 14.6N 120.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 14.7N 120.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 14.7N 119.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 14.9N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 15.5N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 16.5N 109.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MORE DEFINITIVE BANDING\r\nFEATURES AND THE EYE BECOMING APPARENT ON VISIBLE IMAGES.  TAKING A\r\nBLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 80 KT.  IRWIN IS CURRENTLY IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS THIS\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE.  THEREFORE...THE STRENGTHENING TREND\r\nIS PREDICTED TO END IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES RESTRENGTHENING\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES\r\nIN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE AT 5 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDOES NOT GO WITH THAT SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TO SLOW AND IS NOW ABOUT 295/5.  AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF IRWIN RETREATS TO THE EAST AND\r\nSOUTH...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER IRWIN SHOULD BEGIN MOVING\r\nEASTWARD WITHIN A REGION OF BROAD WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nSOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE GFS IS NOT TAKING IRWIN AS\r\nFAR EAST AS PREVIOUSLY.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THAT MODEL SHOWING\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF IRWIN\r\nBY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST GENERALLY LIES BETWEEN THE\r\nGFS AND THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 14.0N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 14.2N 121.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 14.7N 121.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 14.8N 120.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 15.0N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THIS EVENING...WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. WHILE\r\nTHE EYE SEEN EARLIER IN SATELLITE IMAGES IS NOT CURRENTLY\r\nAPPARENT...EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST IT IS STILL PRESENT\r\nUNDER THE OVERCAST. THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB HAVE NOT CHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT.\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 15 KT\r\nOF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER IRWIN...AND THIS IS CAUSING\r\nTHE OUTFLOW TO THE EAST TO BE RESTRICTED.\r\n\r\nIRWIN CONTINUES TO SLIDE FARTHER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THAN FORECAST...\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION 295/4. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD COME TO A HALT LATER\r\nTONIGHT AS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH INCREASES\r\nITS INFLUENCE ON IRWIN. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE THE\r\nHURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY 36 HOURS...AND\r\nTOWARD THE EAST AFTER 36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND THE SLOWER\r\nGFS/NOGAPS MODELS. OVERALL...THE NEW GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN EARLIER...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST IRWIN TO ENCOUNTER INCREASED SHEAR AS\r\nIT MAKES ITS EASTWARD TURN IN 24-36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING BEFORE THAT TIME...AND SLOW WEAKENING\r\nAFTER THAT TIME.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN THOSE MODELS AFTER THAT TIME.  AS MENTIONED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CONDITIONS COULD\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AT ABOUT 120 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE EVIDENCE OF THAT OCCURRING NEEDS TO BE STRONGER\r\nBEFORE THE FORECAST CAN SHOW STRENGTHENING AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 14.1N 121.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 14.4N 121.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 14.7N 121.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 14.9N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 15.0N 119.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 15.0N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 15.0N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 16.5N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING\r\nIRWIN...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MAY NOW BE LOCATED CLOSER TO THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90\r\nKT...AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 80 KT SINCE THERE HAS NOT\r\nBEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nIRWIN IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS TRAPPED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME BETWEEN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM JOVA TO ITS EAST...A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST...AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.  THIS WEAK\r\nSTEERING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 TO 48 HOURS UNTIL A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST.  IRWIN SHOULD THEN ACCELERATE TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CUTOFF IN 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS...AND THIS WOULD LIKELY CAUSE IRWIN TO BEGIN TURNING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW BY\r\nDAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST WAS REQUIRED ON DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS ARE INDICATING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF IRWIN MAY BE TOO STABLE AND TOO WARM IN THE UPPER\r\nLEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. \r\nTHEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO\r\nCOMMENCE AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ON DAYS 3 AND 4 ONCE THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTS OFF. \r\nTHIS FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAN THE MORE\r\nAGGRESSIVE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 14.4N 121.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 14.8N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 15.1N 120.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 15.3N 119.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 15.4N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 15.5N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 16.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Irwin","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nTHE MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR PARTIALLY BEING INDUCED BY\r\nNEARBY TROPICAL STORM JOVA IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON IRWIN. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EMERGED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AS SEEN IN THE FIRST GEOSTATIONARY VISIBLE IMAGERY. BOTH\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND ADVANCED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DROPPED\r\nCONSIDERABLY WITH TAFB...SAB...AND CIMSS ADT INDICATING\r\nCURRENT-INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 4.5...4.0...AND 4.1...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nCIMSS AMSU EVEN SUGGESTS WELL-BELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT...WITH CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW AND\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 345 DEGREES AT 2 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nSTART MOVING OFF TOWARD THE EAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RESPONDS TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING\r\nDOWN OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND NE MEXICO.  THE INFLUENCE ON THE\r\nSTEERING BY NEARBY TROPICAL STORM JOVA IS MINIMAL CURRENTLY...\r\nTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL SUGGESTS SOME FUIJIWHARA INTERACTION AFTER\r\nDAY TWO WITH IRWIN PUSHED TO A SOUTH-OF-EAST TRACK IN A MUTUAL\r\nCOUNTER-CLOCKWISE ROTATION OF THE TWO VORTICES.  THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE FORECAST IS\r\nALSO SLIGHTLY SOUTH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BECAUSE OF A MODEST\r\nRELOCATION OF THE VORTEX AT THE INITIAL TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST OF IRWIN IS QUITE DIFFICULT. THE EASY PART IS\r\nTHAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REMAIN A VERY WARM 28C. ALSO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY\r\nPLAGUING THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOMEWHAT ABATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...ALLOWING A MODERATE REBOUND IN THE INTENSITY TO OCCUR.\r\nHOWEVER...BY DAY THREE THE SHEAR MAY AGAIN INCREASE AT THE SAME\r\nTIME THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nUNFORTUNATELY...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A VERY LARGE\r\nVARIABILITY AT THE EXTENDED RANGE...ANYWHERE FROM A WEAK TROPICAL\r\nSTORM TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE LOW SIDE AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nON THE HIGH SIDE...AND HAS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY THAN USUAL.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 14.3N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 14.6N 120.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 14.8N 120.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 15.0N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 15.1N 118.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 15.0N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO ADVERSELY AFFECT IRWIN AND IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND\r\nSAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK...AND\r\nTHE CIMSS AMSU ANALYSIS.  A 1242Z AMSU PASS WAS ALSO USEFUL FOR\r\nDIAGNOSING THE WIND RADII FROM THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A VERY WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW AND INITIAL MOTION IS SET AT 360 DEGREES AT 1 KT. THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD START MOVING OFF TOWARD THE EAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT RESPONDS TO A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH\r\nDIGGING DOWN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO. THE INFLUENCE ON THE STEERING BY NEARBY TROPICAL STORM JOVA\r\nIS MINIMAL CURRENTLY...THOUGH MORE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON HAS SUGGESTED SOME FUIJIWHARA INTERACTION AFTER DAY TWO.\r\nTHIS HAS THE EFFECT OF A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE EAST TRACK FOR IRWIN\r\nON DAY THREE DUE TO A MUTUAL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE ROTATION OF THE TWO\r\nVORTICES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST OF IRWIN CONTINUES TO BE QUITE DIFFICULT. THE\r\nEASY PART IS THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE TRACK OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN A VERY WARM 28C. ALSO...THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR CURRENTLY PLAGUING THE CYCLONE SHOULD SOMEWHAT ABATE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALLOWING A MODERATE REBOUND IN THE INTENSITY\r\nTO OCCUR. HOWEVER...BY DAY THREE THE SHEAR MAY AGAIN INCREASE AT\r\nTHE SAME TIME THAT THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE TO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS IRWIN A TROPICAL STORM...WHILE THE\r\nHWRF BRINGS IT BACK ALL THE WAY TO A MAJOR HURRICANE. WHILE THE\r\nLGEM/SHIPS MODELS WERE RUN THIS AFTERNOON...BECAUSE OF TECHNICAL\r\nPROBLEMS...THEIR OUTPUT IS BASED UPON THE BAM-MEDIUM TAKING THE\r\nCYCLONE TOO FAR NORTH AND CANNOT BE UTILIZED DIRECTLY. THEREFORE\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nDUE TO THE WEAKENED INITIAL STATE...BUT OTHERWISE HAS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 14.4N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 14.7N 120.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 14.9N 119.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 15.1N 118.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 15.2N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 15.0N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 19.0N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 08 2011\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF IRWIN\r\nFOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AS EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO\r\nAFFECT THE CYCLONE.  THE RATHER UNCERTAIN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50\r\nKT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/3.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO\r\nMOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS A SECOND TROUGH\r\nMOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF MEXICO BY\r\n120 HOURS.  THIS EVOLUTION IS FORECAST TO STEER IRWIN EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  THE GFS\r\nSHOW IRWIN RESPONDING STRONGLY TO THE NEW TROUGH AND TURNING\r\nNORTHWARD SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE GFDL SHOWS A CONTINUED\r\nEASTWARD MOTION...WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SPREAD\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER\r\nAND A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AFTER 72 HOURS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CANADIAN\r\nMODEL.  THE NEW TRACK LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION\r\nRE-DEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF IRWIN AND THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT\r\nDECAY TO A REMNANT LOW.  THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR MAY CONTINUE FOR AS LONG AS 72 HOURS\r\nBEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. \r\nINDEED...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nFOR 72 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGED FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...CALLING FOR IRWIN TO WEAKEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE\r\nMAINTAINING AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KT THROUGH 72 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED SHEAR MAY\r\nALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nTHIS...BUT IS NOT AS STRONG AS THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 14.7N 120.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 15.0N 119.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 15.3N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 15.5N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 15.6N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 15.5N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 20.0N 107.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n \r\nIRWIN CONTINUES TO LACK DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE...WITH ONLY A\r\nLITTLE BIT IN A LOOSE BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT\r\nPASS AT 0500Z SHOWED WINDS AS HIGH AS ABOUT 35 KT IN A BROAD BAND\r\nABOUT 45 N MI FROM THE CENTER...CONSISTENT WITH THE STRUCTURE\r\nOBSERVED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM THE NRL WEB PAGE.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/4. A PAIR OF TROUGHS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO GUIDE IRWIN GENERALLY EASTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE JOVA.\r\nTOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE\r\nSHOWING A BINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN IRWIN AND A PIECE OF THE\r\nSECOND TROUGH...WHICH IMPARTS A TURN OF THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ATTEMPTS TO BLEND THE OUTPUT OF\r\nTHESE TWO MODELS WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS A LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS AFTER THREE DAYS AND\r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS CONSIDERED TO BE OF LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE.\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS NOT HAD THE REQUISITE ORGANIZED CONVECTION OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THE NEW\r\nBAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE WILL PERSIST.  IN ADDITION TO\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR...IRWIN MAY BE INGESTING THE MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS\r\nNORTH.  THE LARGER RMW ALSO DOES NOT FAVOR RE-INTENSIFICATION IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL DECAY\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF HAVE BACKED OFF\r\nCONSIDERABLY FROM THEIR PREVIOUS AGGRESSIVE FORECASTS.  STILL...THE\r\nUPPER WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME LESS HOSTILE AND\r\nIRWIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT IRWIN WILL NOT DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nAND SHOWS SOME RESTRENGTHENING AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 14.9N 120.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 15.3N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 15.7N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 15.9N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 16.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 15.5N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 19.0N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n \r\nIRWIN COULD BE MAKING A COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nREDEVELOP IN A CURVED BAND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. GIVEN THAT DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS SIX HOURS AGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SCATTER OF THE LATEST FIXES MAKES ESTIMATING THE CENTER LOCATION\r\nDIFFICULT...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE...055/04. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY EASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. FROM\r\n48-96 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A BINARY\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN IRWIN AND A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTTING\r\nOFF SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH COULD IMPART A TEMPORARY\r\nSOUTH-OF-EAST MOTION AND THEN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY 120\r\nHOURS...THE STEERING FLOW AROUND IRWIN BEGINS TO CHANGE...WITH THE\r\nGFS SHOWING THE CYCLONE COMING TO A HALT AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE\r\nFAVORING A BEND TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN\r\nFAVOR OF THE MORE RELIABLE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS AND FOLLOWING THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF\r\nSPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...PRIMARILY LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHICH MAKES THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE RETURN OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD SIGNAL SOME RE-\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...THE INGESTION OF\r\nA MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO ITS NORTH...AND THE CURRENT LARGE RMW\r\nCOULD BE LIMITING FACTORS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A PERSISTENCE\r\nOF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF THE SST\r\nWAKE ASSOCIATED WITH JOVA COULD BE CONSIDERATIONS BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECASTS ARE AGAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE...\r\nTHE LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL DECAY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT IRWIN WILL HOLD ITS OWN IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM AND...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLS FOR\r\nSOME POSSIBILITY OF RE-INTENSIFICATION LATER ON.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 15.2N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 15.5N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 15.8N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 15.5N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 15.8N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 17.6N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 19.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n  \r\nIRWIN APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN\r\nMAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE FOR ALMOST 12 HOURS IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED SOME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nSHROUDED BY ITS CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY...THE CENTER OF IRWIN\r\nCONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY. MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT IRWIN IS MOVING 060/04...A\r\nTAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. EMBEDDED IN LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE INTERACTION OF IRWIN\r\nWITH A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH CUTTING OFF INTO A LOW\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK TO BEND\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST AROUND THE LOW IN 36-72 HOURS.\r\nTHE NORTHWARD MIGRATION OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ ALONG WITH A CONTINUED\r\nWESTERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING SHOULD GUIDE IRWIN ON AN EASTWARD OR\r\nEVEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD COURSE LATER ON. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nCOME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THIS CYCLE. THE\r\nOVERALL EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE REQUIRES A SIZABLE\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4-5 BUT IS\r\nSTILL TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nINTENSITY-WISE...IRWIN MAY HAVE SOME STRUGGLES AHEAD.  THE STORM\r\nCOULD BE TAPPING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO ITS NORTHWEST WHICH...IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR...MAY DIMINISH ITS\r\nCHANCE FOR INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. A PERSISTENCE OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL ADVERSE EFFECTS OF THE SST WAKE\r\nASSOCIATED WITH JOVA COULD BE NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT THAN BEFORE...BOTH SUGGESTING LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW DECAY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY LOWER AT DAYS 4-5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 15.2N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 15.7N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 15.8N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.6N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.4N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 18.0N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IRWIN HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING\r\nTHIS EVENING...MUCH LIKE WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. \r\nASIDE FROM THE WEAKENING CONVECTION...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE OVERALL STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF A CURVED\r\nBAND.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE\r\nA LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOW TURNED TO THE EAST AND IS MOVING A LITTLE\r\nFASTER...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/5. AN\r\nEASTWARD OR PERHAPS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE FLOW TO THE\r\nEAST OF A SHARPENING TROUGH OR CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA. IRWIN IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF DUE\r\nEAST...BRINGING IT NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SLOW DOWN IS FORECAST BY DAY 5...AS MANY\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSTORM BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...TO COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nIRWIN IS CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nOVER ABOUT 28C WATERS. HOWEVER...THE STORM STILL LIES NEAR STABLE\r\nAIR AND THAT COULD BE A REASON WHY IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN RECENTLY. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A\r\nMORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT LATER THIS WEEK...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR INCREASING OVER IRWIN. MEANWHILE...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES IRWIN OVER THE COOL WATER WAKE CREATED BY HURRICANE\r\nJOVA. THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE QUITE DIVERGENT WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nSHOWING A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND THE GFDL/HWRF BRINGING IRWIN TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS IN BOTH THE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND THE MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nIRWIN REMAINING STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 15.2N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 15.4N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.4N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.2N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 16.2N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 17.0N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 17.0N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT LACK\r\nOF CORE CONVECTION WITH A FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDING STRUCTURE. \r\nDVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND\r\n35 KT RESPECTIVELY...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nESTIMATE IS 40 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED\r\nON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.  THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE HURRICANE\r\nFORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT CONSENSUS MODEL ALL AGREE WITH LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT DAY 4 AND\r\n5...THE MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO AN INCREASE IN\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nCLOSELY AND NOW SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT DAY 5.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCHANGED...085/5.  AN EASTWARD OR POSSIBLY A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF EASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE 36 HOURS AS\r\nIRWIN TRACKS WITHIN THE FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. A TURN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE 96\r\nHR PERIOD IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE JOVA...AND AN\r\nINCREASING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.  AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...\r\nAND UKMET SHOW IRWIN AS A WEAK...SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT COMMENCES A\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY MARINE-LAYER\r\nFLOW ALONG THE MEXICO COAST.  THE GFS...HOWEVER...IS SHOWING A\r\nCOMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN IRWIN...THE REMNANTS JOVA...AND A\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SIDES\r\nWITH THE FORMER SOLUTION AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND ALSO SHOWS A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 14.9N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 15.0N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.0N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 14.9N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 15.2N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 16.5N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 17.0N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 16.5N 104.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n \r\nSIMILAR TO WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...IRWIN HAS LOST MOST OF ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. ALL THAT REMAINS IS A PATCH OF MEAGER CONVECTION THAT\r\nHAS RECENTLY FORMED SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED ACCORDINGLY...AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-\r\nAND CI-NUMBERS ARE USED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 35\r\nKT. IRWIN APPEARS TO BE PULLING IN RELATIVELY COOLER AND MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR FROM THE WEST...AS EVIDENCED BY THE SOUTHWARD\r\nDISPLACEMENT OF THE NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. THIS COULD\r\nTEMPORARILY BE LIMITING ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND HENCE INTENSIFICATION. EASTERLY SHEAR IS ANOTHER\r\nLIMITING FACTOR AND IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST\r\nAT ROUGHLY THE SAME MAGNITUDE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AND POSSIBLY\r\nEVEN INCREASE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING...THE OBJECTIVE\r\nSTATISTICAL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOW DECAY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT WEAKENING. IT ALSO LEANS TOWARD A BLEND OF\r\nSHIPS/LGEM AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...GIVEN HOW MUCH THE\r\nSYSTEM IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING.\r\n \r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES REMAIN UNCERTAIN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE APPEARS TO BE 085/06. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BE CARRIED ON\r\nAN ATYPICAL EASTWARD AND THE NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AS IT BENDS CYCLONICALLY AROUND A CUT-OFF LOW\r\nDEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY ABOUT 96 HOURS...\r\nIRWIN...PERHAPS AS A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IS LIKELY TO BE PULLED BACK\r\nTOWARD THE EAST AND EVEN SOUTHEAST INTO A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC GYRE OVER MEXICO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 15.0N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.1N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.0N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.1N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 15.6N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 16.9N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 17.1N 105.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 16.4N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IRWIN REMAINS LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED.\r\nTHERE IS A RAGGED PATCH REMOVED FROM THE CENTER ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...WITH SPOTTY AND SOMEWHAT SHALLOW CONVECTION IN\r\nA NORTHERN BAND. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM 1200 UTC...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.  AN EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. WHILE THE EFFECT OF THE NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD\r\nMAY LESSEN AS IRWIN MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM IT IN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES NO RELENTING OF THE SHEAR.\r\nIN FACT...SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR IS SEEN TOWARD THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT IRWIN COULD\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A SHALLOW CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES TO\r\nSIDE WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAS IS THE CASE WITH WEAK SYSTEMS...THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO\r\nLOCATE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHED SOME LIGHT ON THE CENTER\r\nLOCATION AND SUGGEST THAT IRWIN IS MOVING 085/06. THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE CARRIED EASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT BENDS\r\nCYCLONICALLY AROUND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF SOUTHWEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. AFTER ABOUT 4 DAYS...IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nEASTWARD AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD\r\nSHIFT OF THE PACIFIC ITCZ OVER MEXICO. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nSOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING NORTH OF IRWIN BY THAT TIME...THE\r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE FROM THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES. SOME LARGE DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AT DAYS 4-5...LIKELY DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nVORTEX DEPTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN LARGELY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE SHALLOW BAM TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 14.9N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 14.9N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 14.9N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 15.3N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 16.1N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 17.3N 106.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 16.5N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 10 2011\r\n \r\nIRWIN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. ONLY A COUPLE OF PATCHES OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION REMAIN AND THESE ARE CONFINED TO LOOSELY ORGANIZED\r\nCURVED BANDS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IRWIN HAS BECOME ELONGATED DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 30 AND 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN THE DECREASE IN THE\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME AND THE DEGRADED APPEARANCE\r\nIN MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THE LOWER\r\nESTIMATE...MAKING IRWIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...THEY DIFFER ON\r\nHOW MUCH IRWIN INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW. THE GFS MODEL\r\nSHOWS LESS INTERACTION...AND THEREFORE KEEPS IRWIN ON A GENERAL\r\nEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MODEL\r\nSHOWS IRWIN MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL LOW...RESULTING IN A TRACK CONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE GFS.\r\nREGARDLESS...BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nSHOW A SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AS IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME EMBEDDED IN LOW TO MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THAT\r\nTIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nAND IS NEAR THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO A MORE MOIST\r\nENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW DEVELOPS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IRWIN COULD\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.0N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 15.0N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 15.1N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 15.7N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 16.5N 108.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 17.4N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 16.5N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 16.0N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RECENT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CYCLONE.  THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY OVER THE REMAINING QUADRANTS...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO BE\r\nQUITE LIMITED.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH MORE BANDING\r\nDEVELOPMENT FOR IRWIN TO RETURN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT I\r\nHAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE NEW CONVECTION COULD BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS HAS OCCURED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES FAVORABLE LIGHT\r\n850-200 MB SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE CIRA AMSU AREA-AVERAGED\r\nWIND SHEARS PRODUCT...HOWEVER...INDICATES AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...POSSIBLY UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW ALOFT.  THIS\r\nALONG WITH A DRY/STABLE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE\r\nINHIBITING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  FURTHERMORE...STATISTICAL AND\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TOWARD\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOW INDICATES IRWIN AS A REMNANT\r\nLOW AT DAY 5...CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/7.  IRWIN REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nDEEP WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nSITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A GENERAL EASTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  FROM 36-72 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW\r\nDEVELOPING AT THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FEATURE SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHEASTWARD TURN OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nGENERALLY AGREE WITH A GRADUAL TURN BACK TO THE EAST OR\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST AS THE VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK\r\nWITHIN THE STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NUDGED\r\nTO THE LEFT TO COINCIDE WITH NOGAPS AND THE TV15 HFIP CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL WHICH ALSO INCLUDES THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 15.2N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 15.2N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 15.6N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 16.4N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 17.1N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 17.5N 105.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 16.5N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 16.0N 103.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IRWIN IS MAKING A COMEBACK...AGAIN. \r\nA CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED AND INCREASED IN\r\nCOVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nLOWER THAN -80C. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED DUE\r\nTO THE CONVECTIVE REFORMATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nTO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE FUTURE FOR IRWIN DOES NOT LOOK BRIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH IRWIN HAS GENERALLY BEEN SUFFERING AS THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPARENTLY TAPS RELATIVELY STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS FIELD. AS IRWIN PULLS AWAY FROM THIS AREA...IT IS\r\nASSUMED THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT\r\nANY SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION. AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...A FURTHER\r\nINCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS IRWIN ENTERS AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND EASTERLIES\r\nALOFT. WEAKENING SHOULD RESULT...AND IRWIN IS SHOWN AS A SHALLOW\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THIS\r\nDEGENERATION OCCURRED SOONER. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM BASED ON\r\nCURRENT TRENDS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AT\r\nLATER TIMES. OVERALL...IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL AIDS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE HARD TO PIN DOWN...EVEN WITH MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY. USING SATELLITE DATA AND SOME EXTRAPOLATION...IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT IRWIN IS MOVING 080/06. MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT FOR\r\nTHE GFS...SHOWS IRWIN HEADING NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-60\r\nHOURS AS IT SWINGS AROUND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT\r\nIRWIN...LIKELY AS A SHALLOW CYCLONE...BEING DRAWN INTO A BROAD\r\nCYCLONIC FLOW NEAR MEXICO AND TURNING GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nAND SLOWING DOWN. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 15.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 15.5N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 16.1N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 17.5N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 17.6N 105.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 16.5N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n \r\nA BALL OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER OF IRWIN FOR A WHILE NOW...WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATING SOME INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\nGIVEN THAT A 1650 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 35 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH IRWIN HAS MADE A COMEBACK...ITS LONGER-TERM FUTURE IS\r\nNOT AS PROMISING. THE REJUVENATED APPEARANCE OF IRWIN COINCIDES\r\nWITH ITS DEPARTURE FROM A NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD AND ASSOCIATED\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS.  WITH ONLY MODERATE SHEAR FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...THERE IS SOME LIKELIHOOD OF SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION\r\nAND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS. THE CYCLONE IS THEN\r\nEXPECTED TO ENTER A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW AND EASTERLIES ALOFT IN 2 TO 5 DAYS.  THIS PROLONGED\r\nEXPOSURE TO SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CAUSE IRWIN TO WEAKEN AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY AROUND DAY 4.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN LINE WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. \r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...IT IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE FARTHER SOUTH RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATE...AND IT IS UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS REPRESENTS A REFORMATION\r\nOF THE CENTER OR AN ACTUAL MOVEMENT. THE LATEST FIXES YIELD A\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION OF 095/05.  THE INTERACTION OF IRWIN AND A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nA BRIEF TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE\r\nTHEN DEPICTS IRWIN BEING PULLED EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nINTO A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF MEXICO.  AFTER\r\nBECOMING A REMNANT LOW...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM\r\nBACK TO THE WEST AS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED TO INDICATE THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nIS NEAR BUT GENERALLY A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BETWEEN\r\n24-72 HOURS...TO THE RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 14.9N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 15.2N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 16.1N 110.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 17.1N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 17.3N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 16.7N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 16.0N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  16/1800Z 15.5N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF IRWIN HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. AROUND 1800 UTC...A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION EXISTED NEAR THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SINCE THAT\r\nTIME...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MUCH MORE SPREAD OUT WITH THE MAIN\r\nAREA IN A RAGGED-LOOKING CLUSTER TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS.\r\n \r\nIRWIN CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF DUE EAST...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...095/8. WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE ADVERTISED MID-LEVEL LOW IS BEGINNING TO\r\nDEVELOP A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\nTHIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IRWIN TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nWITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...IRWIN IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A\r\nCLOCKWISE LOOP AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF IRWIN IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE INTERACTION WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL LOW AND THE\r\nEXPECTED SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM FROM INTENSIFYING MUCH...IF\r\nAT ALL. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 14.8N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 15.5N 111.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 16.5N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 17.1N 107.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 17.1N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 16.2N 104.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 15.5N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/0000Z 15.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":25,"Date":"2011-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nIRWIN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH\r\nONLY A PUNY AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT REDUCING THE WIND SPEED TO 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. MODERATE-TO-STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IRWIN IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS DUE TO THE WAKE OF\r\nHURRICANE JOVA. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO WEAKEN INTO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST REFLECTS\r\nTHIS LIKELIHOOD. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST GETS RATHER\r\nDIFFICULT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE AS IRWIN SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER\r\nRATHER WARM WATERS WITH SOME GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LESSENING OF\r\nTHE EASTERLY SHEAR. WHILE SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION...THERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF IRWIN TO TAKE\r\nADVANTAGE OF THE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AT THAT TIME. THUS THE\r\nNHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nIRWIN APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE EAST...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/9. A MID-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A FEW\r\nHUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD STEER\r\nTHE STORM ON A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR\r\nSO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN TO THE EAST\r\nAND EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH...AND EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD IN\r\nTHE LONGER RANGE DUE TO A REBUILDING RIDGE OVER MEXICO. FOR SUCH A\r\nCOMPLICATED STEERING PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF MODEL AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS EXCLUDING THE HWRF MODEL.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 15.2N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 17.2N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 17.3N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 15.5N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/0600Z 15.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":26,"Date":"2011-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF IRWIN HAS BECOME EXPOSED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A\r\nSMALL BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE AREA DUE TO 15-20 KT OF EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON\r\nTHESE AND A RECENT SATELLITE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE FROM\r\nCIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 065/13.  THIS IS LIKELY\r\nDUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NEAR 20N116W.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS LOW TO\r\nMOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM IRWIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AT\r\nTHE SAME TIME...IRWIN IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON-TYPE CIRCULATION DEVELOPING TO THE\r\nEAST.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO TURN EASTWARD AND THEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD FROM 24-72 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nAFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE\r\nDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE...CAUSING IRWIN TO TURN WESTWARD.  THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE EVOLUTION...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN JUST WHEN THE VARIOUS TURNS\r\nWILL OCCUR AND HOW FAST THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS\r\nAND BRINGS IRWIN A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST.  AFTER THAT IT IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nNEW TRACK LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE\r\nTO THE OUTFLOW FROM JOVA...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E...AND THE\r\nDEVELOPING MONSOON CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS IRWIN\r\nSLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING RE-INTENSIFICATION\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAT THAT TIME...WHICH WOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nKEEPS THE DEGENERATION SCENARIO DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LEVEL WINDS FORECAST AT 96-120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.0N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 16.8N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 17.5N 106.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 17.6N 105.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 17.1N 103.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 15.5N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":27,"Date":"2011-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IRWIN HAS DECREASED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS\r\nOR THUNDERSTORMS.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1630 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL\r\n35 KT WIND BARBS SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BASED ON THIS IRWIN\r\nREMAINS A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SCATTEROMETER DATA\r\nWAS ALSO USED TO REVISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/15.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N117W...WHICH IS LIKELY HELPING TO STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  AFTER 12-24 HOURS...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  AT THE SAME TIME...IRWIN IS FORECAST TO\r\nENCOUNTER LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON-TYPE\r\nCIRCULATION DEVELOPING TO THE EAST.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nIRWIN TO TURN EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARD FROM 24-48 HOURS WITH\r\nA DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE...CAUSING IRWIN\r\nTO TURN WESTWARD TO COMPLETE A LOOP OR HAIRPIN TURN.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN AND NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. \r\nAFTER 48 HOURS IT LIES JUST NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE\r\nTO THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH JOVA...TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWELVE-E...AND THE DEVELOPING MONSOON CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS IRWIN SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH 48 HOURS...\r\nAND SO DOES THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nPROBLEMATIC AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  DUE TO THE THIS...OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS SCENARIO OF HAVING IRWIN DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY 96 HOURS.  HOWEVER... SEVERAL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nSHOW IRWIN RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...AND LATER\r\nFORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION IF THE MODEL\r\nTRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 16.9N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 17.7N 107.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 18.0N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 17.8N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 17.0N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 16.0N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 16.0N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/1800Z 16.0N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":28,"Date":"2011-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IRWIN HAS WEAKENED...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nIS NOW NEARLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nSUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 30 KT...AND THIS MAKES\r\nIRWIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN THE RECENT DECLINE IN\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nLESSEN MUCH ON THURSDAY...IRWIN IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. SOME OF THE\r\nMODELS SHOW IRWIN RESTRENGTHENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HOWEVER...KEEPS IRWIN AS A REMNANT\r\nLOW BEYOND 36 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THE LONGER TIME\r\nRANGE.\r\n \r\nIRWIN IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KT ON THE EAST SIDE OF\r\nA CUTOFF LOW. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE EAST AND\r\nSLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW. BEYOND THAT TIME...IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAKE A CLOCKWISE LOOP AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nBUILDS TO ITS NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE HFIP MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 17.8N 108.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 18.2N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 18.1N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 17.4N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 16.7N 104.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 16.0N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 16.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":29,"Date":"2011-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2011\r\n \r\nONLY A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH IRWIN...AND THE SYSTEM IS ON THE VERGE OF LOSING THE CONVECTIVE\r\nREQUIREMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS...THE FORECAST WIND SPEEDS ARE\r\nBEING KEPT AT 30 KT DUE TO THE SYSTEM BEING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE\r\nBACKGROUND 20-25 KT WESTERLY FLOW IN THE ITCZ.  WHILE THERE IS A\r\nNON-ZERO CHANCE OF RESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS...THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nGENERALLY BEEN BACKING OFF ON THIS SOLUTION.  THEREFORE...THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nIRWIN CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST...NOW ABOUT 11 KT.  A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO AS THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nTHE REMNANTS OF IRWIN ARE FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY TURN BACK TO THE\r\nWEST DUE TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO BE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH\r\nWITH THE NEW TRACK OF IRWIN DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE...IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 18.3N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 18.6N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 18.2N 105.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 17.4N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 16.4N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 15.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":30,"Date":"2011-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 13 2011\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK NEAR THE CENTER OF IRWIN OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND ALSO FORMING NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE 1200 UTC TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES SHOW THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASED OVER IRWIN IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...WHICH MAY HAVE ALLOWED\r\nTHE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM\r\nWATERS BUT REMAINS IN A RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THINKING. THE GFDL...LGEM...AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS THEN SHOW IRWIN STRENGTHENING TO STRONG TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS IN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nTO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE CIRCULATION WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\nGIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SMALL\r\nINCREASE IN INTENSITY AT 48 HOURS...WITH NO CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nIRWIN HAS SLOWED AND TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...WITH AN\r\nESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION OF 060/8. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS IRWIN\r\nMAKING AN ABRUPT ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS\r\nTRENDED TOWARD A SHARPER LOOP DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND\r\nTOWARD A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nAND LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND\r\nTO THE LEFT OF IT AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND THE EXPECTED\r\nSHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nAT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 18.7N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 18.7N 106.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 18.2N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 17.2N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 16.2N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 15.0N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 14.5N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 15.0N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":31,"Date":"2011-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2011\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED NEAR THE CENTER OF IRWIN DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...HOWEVER 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...WITH\r\nLITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IRWIN CONTINUES\r\nMOVING THROUGH A RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DESPITE BEING\r\nSITUATED OVER VERY WARM SSTS. WHILE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW STRENGTHENING AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL SHOW ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AT 2 OR 3\r\nDAYS. A LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THE NHC FORECAST IS BELOW\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS CLOSE TO THE HWRF\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nIRWIN HAS SLOWED AND TURNED TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/05. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 30N 120W WILL BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD FORCE A IRWIN TO TURN SHARPLY\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. FOR THIS CYCLE THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED AGAIN TOWARD A SHAPER\r\nSOUTHWARD TURN IN THE SHORT TERM WITH A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD\r\nMOTION...AND SO HAS THE NHC FORECAST. BY 72 HOURS THE RIDGE BEGINS\r\nTO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND LEAVES IRWIN IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS. NOT SURPRISINGLY THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINCREASES MARKEDLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE GFS AND UKMET SHOWING\r\nA TURN BACK TOWARD THE EAST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER\r\nIRWIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY WESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD MOTION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO THE LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD\r\nTHE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND THE EXPECTED\r\nSHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 18.6N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 18.4N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 17.5N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 16.5N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 15.5N 106.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 14.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 14.5N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 14.5N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":32,"Date":"2011-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 13 2011\r\n \r\nTONIGHT WE HAVE RECEIVED UNCOMMON BUT WELCOME DATA. THERE ARE 3\r\nDIFFERENT SHIPS LOCATED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF IRWIN THAT REPORTED\r\nAT THE SAME TIME...AND THEY ALL MEASURED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE. ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AND THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON THESE SHIP\r\nOBSERVATIONS. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT IRWIN SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BUT THERE IS AN UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL DRY\r\nENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE. THE LOW SHEAR AND THE WARM\r\nOCEAN COULD COMPENSATE FOR THE DRY AIR...SO IRWIN IS KEPT AS A 35-\r\nTO 40-KT TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 5 DAYS IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND\r\nLITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...LIGHT MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nSHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE CYCLONE AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS...AND\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE IRWIN ON A VERY SLOW SOUTHWARD AND\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. MOST OF GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY\r\nFAVOR SUCH MOTION.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE FACT THAT\r\nIRWIN IS BASICALLY STATIONARY...AND THAT IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nAWAY FROM MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO AT\r\nTHIS TIME. HOWEVER...DATA FROM THESE SHIPS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT TOO FAR FROM THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 19.2N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 19.0N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 18.0N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 16.8N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 15.0N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 15.0N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 15.0N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":33,"Date":"2011-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011\r\n\r\nAFTER BRIEFLY DIMINISHING IN THE LATE EVENING...VIGOROUS CONVECTION\r\nHAS RE-FIRED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS NO\r\nNEW SHIP DATA...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE SYSTEM WERE A\r\nBIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM\r\nSIX HOURS AGO...HOWEVER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 40 KT. \r\n\r\nNIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING TO THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  IRWIN SHOULD MOVE FASTER TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY EARLY SATURDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER\r\nMEXICO...RESULTING IN AN UNUSUAL TRACK FOR AN EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS COURSE AND ONLY A SMALL SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN THE\r\nMEDIUM RANGE...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW MUCH WESTWARD\r\nPROGRESS THE STORM WILL MAKE.  THE DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE DUE TO\r\nWHETHER IRWIN IS STEERED MORE BY THE WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OR THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE.  SINCE IRWIN IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK AT\r\nTHAT TIME...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LEANS ON THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS\r\nHAVING IRWIN BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE ITCZ...AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nSTATIONARY AFTER DAY 3.  \r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS OVER WARM\r\nWATERS...BUT THIS IS PROBABLY THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IT\r\nWILL ENCOUNTER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IS APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nNORTH.  WHILE IRWIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE FASTER TO THE SOUTH...WHICH\r\nCOULD LIMIT THE INFLUENCE OF THE DRY AIR...THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES\r\nOVER THE SIGNIFICANT COLD WAKE OF JOVA JUST AFTER 24 HOURS.  IN\r\nADDITION... MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR TO ABOUT 20 KT IN A DAY OR TWO...AND EVEN\r\nSTRONGER AT LONG RANGE.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING OF\r\nIRWIN OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MUCH OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS HIGHER THAN THE NEW FORECAST...HOWEVER THESE MODELS ARE\r\nUNAWARE OF THE COLD WAKE OF JOVA.  SINCE THE NEW FORECAST STALLS\r\nIRWIN OVER THE COOLER WATERS WITH STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nPRESENT...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS INDICATED AT 120 HOURS...AND IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT HAPPENED SOONER THAN THAT TIME.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 18.9N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 18.4N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.2N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 15.7N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 14.7N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":34,"Date":"2011-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT IRWIN IS CHARACTERIZED\r\nBY A SHAPELESS BLOB OF CONVECTION. CLOUDS TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nEARLIER BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER HAVE WARMED AND RECENT AMSU IMAGES SHOWED JUST A FEW\r\nFRAGMENTED REMAINING BANDS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE IS\r\n33 KT. BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT.\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE\r\nCHANGE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nSHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.\r\nAFTER DAY 2...THE MODELS DIVERGE...EITHER SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND\r\nOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THE FORMER IS MORE REALISTIC BASED ON THE\r\nEXPECTED INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AFFECTS FROM THE COOLER\r\nSST WAKE OF JOVA...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY AND STABLE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL AIR TO POUR INTO THE REGION FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW WEAKENING AFTER 48\r\nHOURS WITH IRWIN BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AT DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/3...WITHIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nFLOW PRODUCED BY A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. THE GENERALLY SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HR...WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTH. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A RELATIVELY WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM AND DRIFT GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS IT BECOMES MORE INVOLVED WITH\r\nTHE ITCZ. THE NHC FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS... WHICH INCLUDES\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 18.6N 106.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 17.9N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 16.6N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 15.1N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":35,"Date":"2011-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF IRWIN INCREASED AGAIN OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WITH TOPS COOLING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN TAKING ON A MORE BANDED STRUCTURE. BASED ON A SHIP\r\nOBSERVATION OF 37-KT WINDS AND THE 18Z TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT. IRWIN WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A\r\nMARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CHARACTERIZED BY\r\nDRY MID-LEVEL AIR...THE COOL WAKE LEFT FROM HURRICANE JOVA...AND\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. DESPITE THIS...MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT AND THE\r\nSPORADIC NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE FOR THE\r\nFIRST 72 HOURS. GRADUAL DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5 IS EXPECTED\r\nAS THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nVORTEX WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/4...AS IRWIN IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND WESTERN MEXICO. THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH BUILDS WESTWARD AND TAKES ON A MORE EAST/WEST\r\nORIENTATION...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO. AFTER THAT TIME THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A SLOW AND/OR ERRATIC MOTION...AS INDICATED BY THE LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nTRENDED TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING LITTLE OR NO MOTION AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 DUE\r\nTO THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME RANGE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 18.0N 106.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 15.1N 107.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 14.7N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 15.0N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 15.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 15.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":36,"Date":"2011-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 14 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED LOW CLOUDS IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF IRWIN MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST...INSTEAD OF TURNING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE CENTER.  THIS\r\nFLOW PATTERN IS LIKELY PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...WHICH BY\r\nITSELF WOULD NOT BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AS A\r\nPOSSIBLE CONSEQUENCE...MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED\r\nWITH IRWIN EARLIER IN THE DAY HAS EVAPORATED.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT RANGE FROM 30 TO\r\n50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME A LITTLE MORE APPARENT JUST BEFORE\r\nSUNSET...AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF MICROWAVE DATA...IRWIN IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH A 12-HR MOTION OF\r\n165/6 KT.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nEXPAND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN\r\nTO TURN SOUTHWARD SOON AND WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...BROAD\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA IS FORECAST TO\r\nDRIFT WESTWARD JUST FAR ENOUGH TO CAUSE IRWIN TO SLOW DOWN AND MOVE\r\nERRATICALLY.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO\r\nAND EVEN SUGGEST THAT IRWIN COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON DAY 4\r\nAND TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 5.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5 BUT\r\nIS OTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IRWIN THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...THE COLD OCEANIC WAKE LEFT BY HURRICANE\r\nJOVA...A DRY ENVIRONMENTAL AIR MASS...AND THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nLOW-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  HOWEVER AS IRWIN MOVES SOUTHWARD AWAY FROM\r\nMEXICO...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A MOISTER AIR MASS...AND LOW-LEVEL\r\nCONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ABLE TO INCREASE.  THESE FACTORS COULD FOSTER\r\nRE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.  GIVEN THE CONFLICTING\r\nSIGNALS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD THE INTENSITY\r\nSTEADY FOR THE FIRST 3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AND\r\nTRANSITION TO A REMNANT LOW.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND IS ANOTHER REASON TO NOT SHOW WEAKENING DURING\r\nTHE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 17.7N 106.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 16.8N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 14.5N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 15.0N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 14.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":37,"Date":"2011-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER THIS CONVECTION IS NOT AS\r\nEXTENSIVE OR ORGANIZED AS YESTERDAY...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE\r\nDECREASING.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 35 KT WHICH MATCHES\r\nTHE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW DRY AIR\r\nALOFT POURING INTO THE CIRCULATION OF IRWIN...SO THE RECENT\r\nCONVECTIVE BURST WILL PROBABLY BE SHORT-LIVED.  THIS DRY\r\nAIR...COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONE SOON MOVING OVER THE COLD WAKE OF\r\nJOVA AND AN INCREASE IN NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR... SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nSYSTEM TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.  ALMOST\r\nALL OF THE GUIDANCE BESIDES THE GFS NOW SHOW THIS SOLUTION...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE STILL SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT\r\nTHIS SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE FORECAST TRACK MOVING RIGHT OVER THE\r\nWATERS UPWELLED FROM JOVA AND NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ONLY LIKELY TO\r\nGET STRONGER.  IRWIN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY\r\n3...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT HAPPENED SOONER.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTH AT ABOUT 6 KT.  BUILDING\r\nHIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST OF IRWIN SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS BECOME RATHER LIGHT AFTER THAT TIME...WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.  A COMPROMISE\r\nIS TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN THE NEW\r\nFORECAST BEING BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE\r\nSLOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.2N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 16.3N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 15.3N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 14.7N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 14.7N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 15.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 15.0N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":38,"Date":"2011-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IRWIN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER WIND SPEED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT...\r\nDUE TO THE RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION.  NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONDITIONS CONSISTING OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR....DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR...AND COOLER WATERS OF THE WAKE OF JOVA...ARE LIKELY\r\nTO CAUSE WEAKENING OF IRWIN IN THE SHORT-TERM.  LATER IN THE PERIOD\r\nSOME OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RE-STRENGTHENING COULD\r\nOCCUR...HOWEVER IRWIN IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OVER ANOMALOUSLY COOL\r\nWATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND SET BY THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SHOWS IRWIN BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nVERY SOON AND DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nIRWIN IS MOVING SOUTHWARD OR 185/6 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nTURN SOUTHWESTWARD THEN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE STEERING CURRENT ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN AND IRWIN IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN.  THE UPDATED FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER MOTION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST...\r\nHOWEVER...REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND TVCE CONSENSUS IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE MUCH SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 16.5N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 14.9N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 14.7N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 14.7N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 14.7N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 14.7N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Irwin","Adv":39,"Date":"2011-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IRWIN BECAME EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nIT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SEPARATED SINCE THAT TIME. THIS\r\nASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...BUT THIS\r\nCOULD BE GENEROUS. IRWIN LIES OVER THE COOL WATER WAKE OF\r\nJOVA...AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IRWIN IS\r\nCURRENTLY OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 23C. THESE COOL WATERS...STABLE\r\nAIR...AND AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO\r\nWEAKEN SOME AND EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN TWO TO\r\nTHREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nEARLIER AND IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nIRWIN IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nIRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...COULD COME TO A HALT...PERHAPS REVERSING\r\nEASTWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE AND IS\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO\r\nCOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 15.6N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 14.8N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 14.2N 109.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 14.1N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 14.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 14.0N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":40,"Date":"2011-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 15 2011\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF IRWIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER RE-FORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING...\r\nBUT THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHRINKING WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF\r\n-50C CLOUD TOPS REMAINING.  A DELAYED 1708 UTC ASCAT PASS RECEIVED\r\nJUST A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ONLY 20-25 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED\r\nTO 30 KT.  IRWIN IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND\r\nFROM JOVA TOWARD WARMER WATER...BUT THE DAMAGE MAY ALREADY BE DONE. \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...RE-INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST NOW MAKES IRWIN A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS...BUT THIS\r\nCOULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS SUNDAY IF SUFFICIENT DEEP CONVECTION DOES\r\nNOT RE-DEVELOP.  THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO DISSIPATE THE\r\nSYSTEM...WHICH IT DOES BY DAY 3...SO THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO HOLD\r\nOFF DISSIPATION UNTIL DAY 5.\r\n\r\nIRWIN IS MOVING 200 DEGREES AT 8 KT...CAUGHT BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS\r\nTHE PACIFIC...AND BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND IRWIN IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nBY 48 HOURS.  THE REMNANT LOW COULD THEN BEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE\r\nFASTER TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BY DAY 4 AS IT BECOMES INFLUENCED BY\r\nSTRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW.  THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS BUT THEN IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ON DAYS 3\r\nAND 4. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 14.8N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 14.2N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 14.0N 108.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 14.1N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 14.2N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 13.5N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 13.0N 108.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":41,"Date":"2011-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011\r\n \r\nA SMALL BURST OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS....WHICH IS\r\nENOUGH TO PRODUCE A DATA-T NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB USING THE\r\nSHEAR PATTERN TECHNIQUE. A PARTIAL ASCAT OVERPASS AT 16/0416Z\r\nCAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF IRWIN AND INDICATED A LARGE PATCH\r\nOF 25-KT WINDS EXISTED AT THAT TIME. BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND\r\nTHE RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 210/04 KT. IRWIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS EAST-WEST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...A WEAKENED AND MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW IRWIN IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY OR JUST LOOP AROUND IN THE\r\nSAME GENERAL AREA AS THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IRWIN IS NOW MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND AWAY FROM THE\r\nCOLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY FORMER HURRICANE JOVA...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nAND VERY DRY AIR READY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FAIRLY SOON. IN FACT...\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL\r\nINCREASE TO MORE THAN 35 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING DESPITE THE 29C SSTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS IRWIN WEAKENING AND BECOMING\r\nA NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITHIN 36-48 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS WEAKENING COULD OCCUR SOONER BASED ON THE ABUNDANCE\r\nOF VERY DRY AIR THAT LURKS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 14.3N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 14.0N 108.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 13.9N 108.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 14.0N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 13.8N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 13.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 13.0N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":42,"Date":"2011-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED...AGAIN...NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 0600 UTC...AND IT HAS EXPANDED SINCE THAT\r\nTIME. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE. IRWIN COULD\r\nBE NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AGAIN...AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nLATEST ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS. HOWEVER...THE LONG-TERM TREND\r\nSHOULD BE FOR IRWIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nDRY AIR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED\r\nFROM EARLIER...SHOWING IRWIN DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT IRWIN IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...\r\nAND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 230/4. THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS FOR THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...TO MEANDER\r\nIN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH SHOULD TAKE IT FIRST WESTWARD\r\nAND THEN BACK SOUTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 14.1N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 14.1N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 14.2N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 14.2N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 14.1N 109.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 13.7N 108.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 13.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Irwin","Adv":43,"Date":"2011-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011\r\n \r\nALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN VANISHED...LEAVING IRWIN\r\nAS A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. GIVEN THE CURRENT PRESENTATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND AN\r\nINCREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE IRWIN TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NOW SHOWS IRWIN DISSIPATING IN THREE TO\r\nFOUR DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EASY TO LOCATE...THERE IS MORE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE LATEST 12-HOUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 225/4.\r\nHOWEVER...THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT IRWIN MAY BE\r\nMOVING A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nUNCHANGED. IRWIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE WEAK SYSTEM COULD CURVE TO THE SOUTHEAST \r\nBEFORE IT DISSIPATES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 13.6N 108.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 13.8N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 14.1N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 14.2N 109.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 14.0N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 13.4N 108.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Irwin","Adv":44,"Date":"2011-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP112011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IRWIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 16 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT IRWIN HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nFOR ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME\r\nLESS DEFINED.  FOR THESE REASONS...IRWIN NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER BURST OR TWO OF CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR SURROUNDING THE\r\nLOW IT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT-LIVED.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD THEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY.  THE\r\nUPDATED NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION WITHIN 72 HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH\r\nBOTH SHOW DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON IRWIN.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 14.1N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 14.5N 108.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 14.6N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 14.4N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 14.1N 109.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS\r\nBECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND CURVATURE NEAR AND TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AT AROUND 04Z SHOWED THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AND THIS WAS\r\nCONFIRMED BY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THIS...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nINITIATED AT THIS TIME. THE DEPRESSION HAS LIMITED TIME TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...AND ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nIS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO\r\nMINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN...AND GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER LOSING DEFINITION BY 48 HOURS IN AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC\r\nFLOW THAT DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT REASONING AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/4...AS THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO...THE STEERING FLOW WILL VEER TO WESTERLY AND SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE GFS THROUGH DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 14.7N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.2N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.7N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.9N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...WITH SEVERAL NEW CLUSTERS RECENTLY FORMING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. THE MEXICAN RADAR FROM MOZOTAL DEPICTS A CURLY CUE-SHAPED\r\nCONVECTIVE ELEMENT ROTATING AROUND A BROADER CIRCULATION...WITH A\r\nCOUPLE OF LOOSELY ORGANIZED BANDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. WITH NO APPRECIABLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SOME OF THE WARMEST WATER OF THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC BASIN...IT HAS LIMITED TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING\r\nINLAND. ASIDE FROM THAT...THE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTRUCTURE CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON-TYPE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY BEFORE REACHING THE\r\nCOAST. DISSIPATION IS FORECAST WITHIN 48 HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES\r\nOVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN\r\nGUATEMALA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THERE COULD BE SOME SHORT-\r\nTERM WOBBLES OF THE TRACK IF THE CENTER REFORMS OR DUE TO\r\nTOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. OUTSIDE OF THOSE VARIATIONS...THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nA MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE YUCATAN. A WESTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW INDUCED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nSOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IS FORECAST\r\nTO CARRY THE CYCLONE ON A NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD COURSE\r\nAFTER IT MOVES INLAND. ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND CLOSE\r\nTO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...EVEN AFTER THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 15.1N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.6N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 15.9N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 15.9N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH MEXICAN RADAR DATA OUT OF MOZOTAL AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nCROSSED THE COAST BETWEEN SALINA CRUZ AND ARRIAGA DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  NOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS INLAND...CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING...INDICATIVE THAT WEAKENING HAS\r\nALREADY BEGUN. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD QUICKLY LOSE ITS\r\nIDENTITY WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON-TYPE GYRE OVER MEXICO WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO INDICATE REMNANT\r\nLOW STATUS IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES ARE A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/06.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nSHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST IN A SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nTO WESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nVERY HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO LINGER\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EVEN AFTER THE\r\nDEPRESSION DISSIPATES.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 16.3N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 16.8N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP122011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122011\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 12 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM NOW LACKS\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. \r\nSURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS QUITE WEAK AND THE INTENSITY\r\nIS SET GENEROUSLY TO 25 KT.  WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS...THE LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO DISSIPATE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING\r\nABOUT 040/3.  A VERY SLOW NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...A BROAD \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.6N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.8N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2011-11-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE DAY...AND A 1645\r\nUTC ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING WINDS OF AT\r\nLEAST 30 KT.  IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS\r\nNOT ALL THAT INTENSE...BUT IT IS JUST DEEP AND ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR\r\nSAB AND TAFB TO PROVIDE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE SYSTEM IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 280/10 KT.  AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR NOVEMBER...A BROAD\r\nBUT DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS WEST OF THE U.S./MEXICAN\r\nCOAST TO ABOUT 140W WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDING DOWN\r\nTO 16N.  EVEN THOUGH A VIGOROUS CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND EXPAND\r\nWESTWARD AT THE SAME TIME.  THIS SHOULD INDUCE THE DEPRESSION ON A\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH A NEARLY CONSTANT FORWARD\r\nSPEED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE\r\nHWRF...WHICH SHOWS A MORE POLEWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nTHE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION MAY NOT BE IDEAL\r\nFOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER COOL WATERS\r\nAND THROUGH A REGION OF DRY AIR RESULTING FROM A GAP WIND EVENT\r\nOVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS MOVING\r\nTOWARDS A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...AND DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO SLOWLY FILL IN OVER THE CIRCULATION.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE BETWEEN\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS...WITH THE SHIPS\r\nSHOWING MORE AGGRESSIVE INTENSIFICATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nHOW MUCH THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL IMPROVE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nBASED ON HISTORICAL RECORDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E IS THE\r\nLATEST-FORMING TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN\r\nSINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E IN 1987...WHICH FORMED ON\r\nNOVEMBER 24.  IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE\r\nLATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE IN 1983...WHICH\r\nFORMED ON DECEMBER 4.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 10.0N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 10.2N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 10.9N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 11.4N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 11.6N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 12.5N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 13.5N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2011-11-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 PM PST SAT NOV 19 2011\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH A SMALL CONVECTIVE AREA NEAR THE CENTER AND AN\r\nOUTER BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND THAT REMAINS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.  THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY HAS GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nIN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280-285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nACROSS MEXICO.  THIS RIDGE IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CALIFORNIA.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO PASS NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING\r\nWESTWARD AS THE TROUGH MOVES AWAY.  THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24-36\r\nHOURS...WITH A WESTWARD TURN AFTER THAT AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. \r\nTOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD AGAIN WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO OCCUR.  THE TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL\r\nSHOWS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION THAN THE OTHER MODELS LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS THIS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nFIVE DAYS.  THUS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS WILL BE THE MAIN FACTORS CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY. \r\nTHE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nINCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IN RESPONSE THE\r\nSHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN 48-60 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE LGEM MODEL CALLS FOR A\r\nPEAK INTENSITY UNDER HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nALTHOUGH IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS...GFDL...OR HWRF. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BY\r\n120 HOURS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST WEAKENING AT THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nIF THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WOULD BE THE\r\nLATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE\r\nWINNIE IN 1983...WHICH FORMED ON DECEMBER 4.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 10.3N 102.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 10.7N 103.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 11.3N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 11.7N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 11.9N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 12.0N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 12.5N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 13.5N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2011-11-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 AM PST SUN NOV 20 2011\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nWAXING AND WANING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOTED IN MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND NOT IN THE COLD CLOUD SHIELD. ALSO...A\r\n20/0350Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED THAT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nHAD WEAKENED AND DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE COMPARED THE PREVIOUS\r\nOVERPASS JUST 12 HOURS EARLIER. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A\r\nCONSENSUS T2.0/30 KT CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KT BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES\r\nOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED FROM CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO AND EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 20N LATITUDE AND INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTATION AND STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD DESPITE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING ACROSS\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH MAY ACT TO BRIEFLY WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND\r\nCREATE SOME MINOR STAIR-STEP MOTION IN THE TRACK. THE LATEST NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT\r\n12-18 HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE AROUND 15 KT FORECAST AFTER\r\nTHAT. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE\r\nEAST...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.\r\nBY 48-72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF DRIER\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR AND ALSO OVER COOLER SSTS. THE RESULT IS THAT SLOW\r\nBUT STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SHARP\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nPULSES UP AND DOWN. AFTER 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nSUB-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND GFS\r\nMODELS...AND REMAINS WELL BELOW THE HWRF AND GFDL INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS...ESPECIALLY AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 10.4N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 10.9N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 11.4N 107.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 11.8N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 11.9N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 12.6N 120.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 13.5N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2011-11-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 AM PST SUN NOV 20 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS\r\nONE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH SEVERAL WEAKER BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER. THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. SINCE THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS WHICH\r\nINDICATED WINDS OF ABOUT 30 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\nTHIS VALUE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...THERMODYNAMICS WILL LIKELY\r\nBE THE MAIN FACTOR THAT REGULATES THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 27-28C WATERS DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE AND\r\nFALL BELOW 26C AFTER 96 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD....WHICH ALONG WITH THE COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE...AND LOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS EXPECTED\r\nTO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PASS\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE PERIOD WHICH COULD BRIEFLY\r\nWEAKEN THE RIDGE AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nAFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE ALMOST DUE\r\nWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 96 TO 120 HOURS...THE SECOND\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 120W AND 130W. AT\r\nTHAT TIME...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE...WITH THE GFS SHOWING A\r\nSLIGHTLY DEEPER TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nTHE ECMWF DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT TURNS WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nECMWF SOLUTION OF A WEAKER CYCLONE NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 10.6N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 11.1N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 11.6N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 11.7N 111.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 11.7N 113.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 12.0N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 13.0N 121.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 13.8N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":5,"Date":"2011-11-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011\r\n \r\nCORRECTED FOR MISSING WORD IN FIRST LINE OF SECOND PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION HAS\r\nINCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD\r\nCOVERS THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SHIP LAZS2...LOCATED\r\nABOUT 100 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS TO\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE.  BASED UPON THE SHIP REPORT AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KENNETH.  ALTHOUGH KENNETH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...\r\nINTENSIFICATION MAY BE LIMITED BY NEGATIVE THERMODYNAMIC EFFECTS. \r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING\r\nRELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR FROM THE NORTH WHICH COULD\r\nALREADY BE AFFECTING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW CONVECTIVE GROWTH. \r\nKENNETH WILL ALSO BE DEPARTING THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE BASIN\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS AND ENTERING A REGION WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nLOWER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH DAY 3...AND IS LOWER THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE LONGER RANGE.\r\n \r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES\r\nYIELDS A MOTION OF 290/10. IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE NEW\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION REPRESENTS A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR A\r\nCHANGE OF HEADING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE WESTERN\r\nEXTENSION OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE FORECAST TRACK BEYOND THIS TIME WILL\r\nLARGELY HINGE ON THE POTENCY OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH/STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE GFS SHOWS A STRONGER AND DEEPER CYCLONE TURNING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE AND THE\r\nSUBSEQUENT EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF/UKMET\r\nSOLUTIONS DEPICT A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  GIVEN THE EXPECTATION THAT KENNETH WILL BE\r\nWEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO\r\nLEAN ON THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD DUE TO\r\nTHE CENTER RELOCATION.  \r\n \r\nKENNETH BECOMES THE LATEST-FORMING NAMED STORM IN THE EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC SINCE HURRICANE WINNIE FORMED ON 4 DECEMBER 1983. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 11.5N 105.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 12.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 12.3N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 12.5N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 12.5N 114.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 14.1N 121.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":6,"Date":"2011-11-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 PM PST SUN NOV 20 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...MARKED BY INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CANOPY.\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 45 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE\r\nOBJECTIVE ADT FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...AND THAT\r\nIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT MOST\r\nOF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS CAUGHT UP IN ITS CIRCULATION.  OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOW THE FASTEST RATES\r\nOF INTENSIFICATION AND BRING KENNETH TO HURRICANE STATUS IN 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND HWRF ALSO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE\r\nTO A HURRICANE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW DEPICTS THIS\r\nOCCURRING IN 36 HOURS.  KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO REACH WATERS COOLER\r\nTHAN 26.5C AND DRIER...MORE STABLE AIR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BEYOND THAT TIME.  THE NHC INTENSITY IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT LIES AT THE LOWER END\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE CLOSE TO THE LGEM SOLUTION.  IT IS THEREFORE\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT KENNETH COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KENNETH APPEARED TO JUMP OR RE-FORM TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...THE ESTIMATED MOTION OF 290 DEGREES AT\r\n12 KT MAY BE STABILIZING NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE\r\nCONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER.  THE STORM IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nFROM CENTRAL MEXICO...AND THIS SHOULD INDUCE A WESTWARD MOTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 48 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE MODELS\r\nFROM DAY 3 AND BEYOND...HOWEVER.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF SHOW A\r\nDEEPER CYCLONE TURNING SHARPLY NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA ON\r\nWEDNESDAY.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...WEAKEN\r\nKENNETH SOONER...AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS LITTLE INFLUENCE\r\nON THE STORM.  SINCE THE NEW FORECAST SHOWS KENNETH STRENGTHENING A\r\nLITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...IT SEEMS APPROPRIATE TO\r\nLEAN TOWARDS THE NORTHWARD-TURNING MODELS BUT NOT YET MAKE A FULL\r\nCOMMITMENT.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST ENDS UP NORTH OF AND A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 12.2N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 12.6N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 12.9N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 12.9N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 13.1N 115.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 15.5N 122.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 16.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":7,"Date":"2011-11-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING AND AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS\r\nSHARPLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...INCLUDING THE BRIEF\r\nAPPEARANCE OF A MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE MOST\r\nRECENT 2-HOUR AVERAGE ADT VALUE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ALSO T3.5/55 KT.\r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/12 KT. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY STABILIZED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS\r\nAND MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE KENNETH HAS BEEN MOVING MORE WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE PAST 9 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BASICALLY\r\nINTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR WEAKENING OF\r\nTHE RIDGE EXPECTED IN 72-84 HOURS WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE ALONG 120W LONGITUDE. WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LONG FETCH OF VERY FAST WEST TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC. THIS TYPE OF LOWER AMPLITUDE PATTERNS FAVORS\r\nTROUGHS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD RATHER THAN DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD.\r\nTHE LATEST 00Z GFS RUN HAS NOW BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING THE RIDGE\r\nAND ALLOWING KENNETH TO RECURVE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES. ONLY THE HWRF MODEL HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF\r\nRECURVING KENNETH...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER SCENARIO\r\nSINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HFIP MODELS...\r\nKEEP KENNETH AS A STRAIGHT-RUNNER TYPE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE HWRF-BIASED CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nKENNETH HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THIS\r\nTREND COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS GIVEN THE LOW VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS\r\nDEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS WRAPPED INTO THE INNER\r\nCORE...AND THIS DRY AIR COULD BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE STRENGTHENING\r\nPROCESS. REGARDLESS OF THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR...KENNETH IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW SHEAR AND MOIST\r\nSURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...COOLER WATER\r\nBENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND\r\nINCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5 SHOULD INDUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE LGEM AND THE MORE ROBUST HWRF/GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED\r\nON REPORTS FROM SHIP LAXS2 LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 12.3N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 12.6N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 12.8N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 12.8N 114.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 13.0N 116.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 14.3N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 15.2N 123.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 15.9N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":8,"Date":"2011-11-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 AM PST MON NOV 21 2011\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED COILED BAND\r\nWRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT\r\nA RAGGED EYE IS FORMING...AND A 1141 UTC SSMIS SHOWS A NEARLY\r\nLOW-LEVEL CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A\r\nCONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE HAS FURTHER INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 70 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 285/12. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nTHE TRACK OF KENNETH BENDING MORE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. IN 2-3 DAYS...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE A GREATER POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION. THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD THEN RE-STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THE\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH...CAUSING THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT DIVERGES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD. THE DIFFERENCES ARE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH/VERTICAL\r\nDEPTH OF KENNETH BEYOND 3 DAYS...WITH THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER\r\nCYCLONE AND THE ECMWF DEPICTING A WEAKER VERSION. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN ADJUSTED A BIT SOUTHWARD...CONTINUING TO WEIGH THE ECMWF MORE\r\nLATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH KENNETH HAS ALREADY EXITED THE WARMEST WATERS OF THE\r\nBASIN...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE UNCLIMATOLOGICALLY\r\nLOW FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BARRING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OR\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN THE INNER CORE...KENNETH IS LIKELY TO REACH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT A DAY OR SO.  SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCOMMENCE AFTER THIS TIME AS THE WATERS GRADUALLY COOL ALONG ITS\r\nPATH.  A FASTER WEAKENING...PERHAPS MORE THAN INDICATED HERE...IS\r\nEXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD ONCE KENNETH REACHES WATERS OF 25-26C\r\nAND WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL/FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AND CLOSER TO THE STATISTICAL OUTPUT AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nSHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE\r\nLATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN\r\nSATELLITE ERA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 12.7N 109.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 12.9N 111.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 13.0N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 13.4N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 15.2N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 15.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":9,"Date":"2011-11-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE TODAY.\r\nTHE LARGE CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER\r\nTHIS MORNING HAS CONSOLIDATED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE\r\nWITH AN EMBEDDED RAGGED EYE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED\r\nTO 75 KT...BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 4.5 FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND WARM WATER ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW KENNETH ATTAINING MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS...THERE IS STILL SOME CHANCE THAT COULD OCCUR\r\nTONIGHT OR TUESDAY.  AFTER 24 HOURS...GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS AND\r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...WEAKENING SHOULD BE MORE RAPID AS WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR INCREASES AND KENNETH MOVES OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND TURNED MORE WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS STILL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT 11 KT.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nFROM MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KENNETH\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN 2-3 DAYS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES AT THAT TIME FRAME AS\r\nTHE MODELS WHICH DEPICT A DEEPER CYCLONE SHOW A MORE POLEWARD\r\nMOVEMENT.  THE ECMWF WHICH INITIALIZED KENNETH UNREALISTICALLY\r\nWEAK...IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nSHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD TRACK OF A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE.  SINCE\r\nKENNETH HAS STRENGTHENED AND BECOME A DEEPER CYCLONE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nSHOULD KENNETH ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS...IT WOULD BE THE\r\nLATEST MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE\r\nSATELLITE ERA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 13.0N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 13.1N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 13.5N 116.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 14.0N 117.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 15.1N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 15.8N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":10,"Date":"2011-11-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 PM PST MON NOV 21 2011\r\n \r\nKENNETH CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY.  THE HURRICANE HAS DEVELOPED\r\nA DISTINCT 20-N MI WIDE EYE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...\r\nSURROUNDED BY A NEARLY CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE CYCLONE\r\nALSO HAS GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND\r\nFAIR OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO\r\nT5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING OR MAINTENANCE OF INTENSITY THROUGH AT LEAST 3 OR 4\r\nDAYS...THE INTENSITY OF KENNETH WILL BE GOVERNED BY CHANGES IN \r\nENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...WITH KENNETH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 26.5C\r\nISOTHERM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WHILE ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL\r\nLIKELY INCREASE AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WESTWARD.  AS A RESULT OF\r\nTHESE FACTORS...KENNETH PROBABLY HAS A LITTLE MORE TIME FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE MAKES IT A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED\r\nAFTER THAT TIME AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS\r\nFAVORABLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...MAINLY DUE TO THE\r\nCONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nKENNETH HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n280/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH STILL EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC ALONG 15N.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEING ERODED BY\r\nTWO SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE WESTERLIES ON DAYS 2 AND 3. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36\r\nHOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS \r\nDURING THAT PERIOD.  WHILE THERE IS LESS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODELS SUCH AS THE GFS\r\nAND HWRF STILL HAVE A DEEPER VORTEX MOVING MORE POLEWARD TOWARDS\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF WEAKENS THE CYCLONE FASTER\r\nAND MOVES IT QUICKLY WESTWARD IN LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST REFLECTS A SCENARIO BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES GIVEN\r\nTHE EXPECTED WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...AND ENDS UP A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\nTHIS IS ALSO A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THOSE\r\nTIMES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 13.0N 111.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 13.0N 113.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 13.1N 115.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 13.4N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 15.0N 121.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 15.5N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":11,"Date":"2011-11-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011\r\n \r\nKENNETH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY. THE EYE HAS WARMED AND\r\nBECOME MORE DISTINCT DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN\r\nADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONSOLIDATED AND GAINED\r\nSYMMETRY...AND KENNETH NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A COMPACT MATURE\r\nHURRICANE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC WERE 90 KT AND 102 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER...RECENT ADT VALUES AND A\r\nSPECIAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB REVEAL HIGHER ESTIMATES.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 110 KT...AND THAT\r\nCOULD BE CONSERVATIVE. THIS MAKES KENNETH A MAJOR HURRICANE...THE\r\nLATEST ONE TO HAVE FORMED IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN IN THE\r\nSATELLITE ERA.\r\n\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY AS KENNETH REMAINS\r\nIN A VERY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS OF ABOUT\r\n27-28C. HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS AS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...FALLING BELOW 26.5C IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND TO NEAR 25C IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT COULD ACCELERATE THE WEAKENING\r\nTREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nFOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AS NONE OF THE MODELS ANTICIPATED THE\r\nOBSERVED RATE OF INTENSIFICATION...AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nKENNETH IS MOVING DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO. A TURN BACK TO THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND 3 DAYS DUE TO\r\nTHE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH\r\nAND THE EXPECTED DECREASING DEPTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ABOUT\r\nMIDWAY BETWEEN THE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 13.0N 112.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 13.0N 114.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 13.2N 116.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 13.6N 117.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 14.2N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 15.1N 122.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 15.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 16.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":12,"Date":"2011-11-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 AM PST TUE NOV 22 2011\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KENNETH HAS RAPIDLY\r\nINTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  A SYMMETRIC RING OF\r\nEYEWALL -70 TO -75C CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAS DEVELOPED AROUND A\r\nCLOUD-FREE EYE.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO T6.5 SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT.  LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR AS KENNETH\r\nHAS MORE THAN LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY.  AFTERWARD...WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED...POSSIBLY FASTER THAN FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HR\r\nPERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIABLE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE LEFT OF DUE WEST...265/11.\r\nKENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH.  A SERIES OF MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHOULD\r\nERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 2 DAYS.  NEAR DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH TO THE NORTHWEST OF KENNETH AND THIS CHANGE\r\nIN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODELS WITH LESS EMPHASIS\r\nON THE HWRF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 12.7N 113.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 12.9N 115.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 13.3N 117.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 15.1N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 15.5N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":13,"Date":"2011-11-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011\r\n \r\nKENNETH IS A VERY IMPRESSIVE AND SYMMETRIC HURRICANE IN VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. THE VERY CLEAR 20 N MI WIDE EYE IS STILL\r\nSURROUNDED BY A RING OF CLOUD TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A CONSENSUS T6.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 125 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  IN ABOUT\r\n2 DAYS...KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C\r\nAND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AND KENNETH IS \r\nFORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE \r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY \r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST OR 265/11 KT. \r\nKENNETH SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE \r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS PRIMARILY\r\nDUE TO HOW DEEP VERTICALLY THE MODELS MAINTAIN THE HURRICANE.  THE\r\nHWRF...UKMET AND GFS ALL SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 24-48 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS KEEP KENNETH ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. \r\nTHE UPDATED NHC TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET\r\nMODELS.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 12.6N 114.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 12.8N 116.3W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 13.4N 118.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 14.1N 119.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 14.7N 120.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 15.5N 123.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 15.7N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1800Z 16.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":14,"Date":"2011-11-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 PM PST TUE NOV 22 2011\r\n\r\nKENNETH HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.  THE EYE HAS DISAPPEARED\r\nIN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND A RECENT SSM/IS OVERPASS\r\nSHOWS THE EYEWALL OPENING UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  THIS\r\nMAY BE DUE TO THE ONSET OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS SHOWN IN\r\nANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 115 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T\r\nAND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS\r\nINTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCURRENTLY STEERING KENNETH.  IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...THE TROUGH\r\nMOVES AWAY WITH A MID-LATITUDE RIDGE PASSING NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CAUSE\r\nKENNETH TO TURN WESTWARD.  FINALLY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS\r\nLIKELY TO ALLOW KENNETH OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...THEN LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THEREAFTER\r\nBASED ON AN OVERALL WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nIS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD CAUSE KENNETH TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY\r\n72 HR AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHESE THINGS COULD HAPPEN SOONER.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 12.5N 115.6W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 12.8N 117.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 13.6N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 14.4N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 14.8N 121.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 15.0N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 15.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":15,"Date":"2011-11-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011\r\n \r\nKENNETH IS NOW RAPIDLY WEAKENING.  MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED...LEAVING THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED AND A BLEND OF THE FINAL T AND CI\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 95 KT.  CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KENNETH MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE.  IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF KENNETH WEAKENS EVEN\r\nFASTER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE IS NO LONGER MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST...AND THE LATEST\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/8. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD ALLOW KENNETH TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND\r\nMAINTAIN THAT TRACK THROUGH THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME...A RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A SHALLOWER AND WEAKER KENNETH TO TURN BACK TO THE\r\nWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nNEAR THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS.\r\nDISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 5...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE DECREASED BASED ON A 0430 UTC ASCAT PASS\r\nTHAT CAUGHT THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 12.5N 116.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 13.1N 117.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 13.8N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 14.4N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 14.7N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 15.0N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":16,"Date":"2011-11-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 AM PST WED NOV 23 2011\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT NOAA-18 AMSU-B\r\nOVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE\r\nRAPIDLY. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BOTH\r\nSHOW AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS INDUCED A MORE\r\nASYMMETRIC PATTERN WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION NEAR THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. AS A RESULT...A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS\r\nLOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 80 KT. WEAKENING OF KENNETH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS AND\r\nMOVES WITHIN A MORE STABLE/DRIER THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.\r\nADDITIONALLY...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR WILL INCREASE WITHIN 3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW IN 96 HR AND DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS...SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE VARIABLE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...275/8.\r\nKENNETH IS MOVING WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO. A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR CAUSING KENNETH TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.\r\nBEYOND THE 48 HR PERIOD...SOME RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A TURN BACK TO TOWARD THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY A MIRROR IMAGE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SOUTH OR\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 12.6N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 13.1N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 13.8N 120.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 14.3N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 14.6N 124.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 15.0N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 16.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":17,"Date":"2011-11-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KENNETH HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY\r\nDETERIORATE TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS RECENTLY BECOME\r\nEXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A 1702 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED\r\nWINDS WELL BELOW HURRICANE FORCE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  KENNETH SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nAND COOLER SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KENNETH TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4.\r\nHOWEVER...BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nKENNETH HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n285/10.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE UPDATED FORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 13.2N 118.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 13.7N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 14.2N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 14.6N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 14.8N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 15.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":18,"Date":"2011-11-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 PM PST WED NOV 23 2011\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF KENNETH CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE...ALTHOUGH AT\r\nA SLOWER PACE THAN SEEN EARLIER TODAY.  A JUST-RECEIVED SSM/I\r\nOVERPASS SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION BY WESTERLY OR\r\nNORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO\r\nA SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 50 KT AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER\r\nSUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB AND THE WEAKER\r\nAMSU/SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN.  A COMBINATION OF INCREASING WIND SHEAR...DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND ENCROACHING MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD\r\nCAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nAFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS A WESTWARD TURN AS \r\nTHE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER WITH THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW TRACK FORECAST.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE REMNANTS OF KENNETH ARE LIKELY TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORMING\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 13.5N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.0N 120.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 14.6N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 14.7N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 14.9N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 15.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":19,"Date":"2011-11-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUES TO BE\r\nLOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nGIVEN THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN NOR THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 50 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...A RECENT ASCT PASS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT WINDS ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE WEAKER. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO\r\nGRADUALLY MOVE INTO AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH\r\nSHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nKENNETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS. A TURN TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nTHIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY THE AVAILABLE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 13.8N 120.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 14.3N 121.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 14.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 14.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":20,"Date":"2011-11-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 AM PST THU NOV 24 2011\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KENNETH HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO OTHER RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO HELP DETERMINE THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION. THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS OF 35\r\nTO ALMOST 40 KT. GIVEN THE KNOW LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 50 KT...USING A BLEND OF DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS AND THE ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN 24 HOURS\r\nAGO...AND SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT DIAGNOSES LIGHT SHEAR BETWEEN THE\r\n850 AND 200 MB LEVELS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A LAYER OF NORTHWESTERLY\r\nWINDS UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW THAT IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SHEAR\r\nOVER KENNETH...AS ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS SHEAR ADJUSTMENT PREDICTOR.\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND\r\nTHEN BECOME STRONGER IN 36-48 HOURS. KENNETH WILL ALSO BE MOVING\r\nOVER SSTS BELOW 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING AFTER\r\nTHAT. KENNETH IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\r\n48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 3-4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nKENNETH APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WITH A MOTION\r\nOF 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD\r\nAND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING ON A WESTWARD\r\nTRACK WHILE IT WEAKENS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nSOUTHWARD BECAUSE OF BOTH THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nTHE MOST RECENT GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 13.5N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 13.7N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 13.9N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 14.0N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 14.0N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 14.0N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":21,"Date":"2011-11-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 PM PST THU NOV 24 2011\r\n \r\nKENNETH IS WEAKENING. THE AREAL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS STEADILY BEEN DECREASING...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nHAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN LOSING\r\nDEFINITION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 1638 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS\r\nSHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING\r\nTO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT\r\nBASED UPON FINAL DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAHEAD OF KENNETH SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND WILL\r\nCONTINUE...IF NOT ACCELERATE. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE OVER THE CYCLONE...AND WATERS COOL TO BELOW 26C DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. KENNETH IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW WITHIN 36 HOURS OR SOONER AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nRATE...AND IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/08 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nKENNETH CONTINUING ALMOST DUE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nSHALLOWER...ITS REMNANTS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME COURSE AT\r\nA FASTER FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION...STEERED ENTIRELY BE THE\r\nSTRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 13.5N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 13.5N 123.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 13.6N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 13.7N 128.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 13.7N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":22,"Date":"2011-11-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 PM PST THU NOV 24 2011\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF KENNETH APPEARS TO BE DETERIORATING.  A FEW RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING LESS\r\nDEFINED AND ELONGATED...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45-55 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS 41 KT.\r\nTHE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nKENNETH IS NOW MOVING OVER A SOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING COLD TONGUE OF\r\nWATER BETWEEN 25 AND 26C...AND THIS COLDER WATER SHOULD MINIMIZE\r\nCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS INGESTING\r\nDRIER...MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ABOVE 20 KT WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS.  KENNETH IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO WITH DISSIPATION POSSIBLE AS\r\nEARLY AS SUNDAY.  NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWERE REQUIRED IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/8 KT.  A SURFACE LOW AND\r\nASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE ERODED THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KENNETH...AND THIS HAS\r\nTEMPORARILY SLOWED THE CYCLONE DOWN.  HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CALIFORNIA COAST OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...AND KENNETH SHOULD TAKE ON AN ACCELERATED WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH ITS WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION PHASES.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FASTER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST NEAR\r\nTHE TVCE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 13.4N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 13.4N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 13.4N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 13.4N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 13.6N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":23,"Date":"2011-11-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n100 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2011\r\n \r\n\r\nIT IS HARD TO DEPICT THE PRESENCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES\r\nTHIS MORNING. A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WELL DETACHED\r\nFROM A FEW PATCHES OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. THIS WEAKENING\r\nACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION LOCATED FAR TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO\r\n30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE DETERIORATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS\r\nAND INCREASING SHEAR...IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nA DAY OR SOONER. THE DEPRESSION COULD STILL PRODUCE A FEW\r\nINTERMITTENT PATCHES OF CONVECTION BEFORE DISSIPATION.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS...STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 13.4N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 13.5N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 13.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kenneth","Adv":24,"Date":"2011-11-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP132011","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KENNETH DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132011\r\n700 AM PST FRI NOV 25 2011\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EVIDENT NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS....THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS\r\nRECENTLY DISSIPATED.  ANOTHER PATCH OF DIMINISHING CONVECTION...\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...REMAINS WELL\r\nSOUTHEAST OF AND UNINVOLVED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SINCE\r\nKENNETH LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AT THIS\r\nTIME.  SOME ADDITIONAL...INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION ARE\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM WHILE THE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO\r\nSPIN DOWN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/13.  THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MAINTAIN THIS HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A\r\nDAY OR SO...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON KENNETH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW OF KENNETH...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED\r\nBY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER  AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND\r\nWMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 13.5N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 13.6N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 13.6N 131.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 13.6N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-05-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n500 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE SMALL SURFACE\r\nLOW LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS ACQUIRED THE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE CENTER FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH AWAY FROM AN AIRMASS\r\nBOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS ROUGHLY ALONG 33N.  BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS\r\nFROM AROUND 1530 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.\r\nALBERTO IS SITUATED IN A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH A MARKEDLY DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS TO ITS NORTH\r\nAND WEST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  GIVEN THIS...ONLY MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING OVER\r\nTHE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM.  ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 96 HOURS...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE STATISTICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE WEAKER DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS A BIT TO THE EAST OF THE COLDEST CLOUD\r\nTOPS AND THE CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN ON RADAR...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/03. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS COMPLEX...AS\r\nALBERTO IS IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW WITHIN A BROAD\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTERED NEAR 36N/72W. AS THAT LOW MOVES WESTWARD\r\nAND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD\r\nAND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE STEERING FLOW\r\nBECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF ALBERTO AND THE\r\nCOMPLEX STEERING PATTERN...IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD...BOTH IN TERMS OF\r\nHOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST ALBERTO WILL MOVE...AND HOW SHARP THE TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST WILL BE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS OF VERY LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST\r\nOF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nALBERTO IS EARLIEST-FORMING TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN\r\nSINCE ANA IN 2003.  THIS IS ALSO THE FIRST TIME THAT A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM HAS FORMED BEFORE THE OFFICIAL START OF THE HURRICANE SEASON\r\nIN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND EAST PACIFIC BASINS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 32.2N  77.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 31.9N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 31.7N  78.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 31.9N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 32.7N  78.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 34.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 37.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-05-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF ALBERTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER THIS\r\nEVENING. WHILE AN EARLIER SHIP REPORT SUGGESTED THE STORM WAS\r\nSTRONGER...THE SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BEEN ON THE\r\nDECLINE SINCE THEN...WITH A NOTABLE DECREASE IN WINDS FROM THE\r\nCOASTAL DOPPLER RADARS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIP REPORT AND THE LOWER SATELLITE/RADAR\r\nESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE WARM\r\nGULF STREAM WATERS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...MODERATE SHEAR ALONG\r\nWITH PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF A DRY AIRMASS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME\r\nWEAKENING...AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS SHOWING STRENGTHENING. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR\r\nTHE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...AS IT IS\r\nBEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN IN A\r\nDAY OR SO...WITH A COMPLEX STEERING FLOW PROBABLY CAUSING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THIS\r\nMODEL CYCLE...THOUGH MOST OF THE RELIABLE MODELS STILL KEEP THE\r\nSTORM OFFSHORE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE TVCA\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS TO REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE...THERE IS TOO LITTLE MARGIN FOR\r\nERROR TO NOT ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 31.8N  78.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 31.6N  79.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 31.4N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 31.8N  79.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 32.7N  78.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 35.0N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 38.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-05-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n500 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012\r\n \r\nALBERTO APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nIMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND\r\n0300 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT. BASED ON THE\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO\r\nLIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM...DRY AIR\r\nIN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE AND STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS ALBERTO REMAINING\r\nSTEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING AND A\r\nTRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST BEYOND THAT TIME\r\nWHEN ALBERTO MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF VERY\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS\r\nGENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY \r\nAS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS. THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STALL OFF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED\r\nSTATES COAST TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY AS IT INTERACTIONS WITH AN\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND\r\nA DEVELOPING LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THEREAFTER...A MID-TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD\r\nCAUSE ALBERTO...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS...TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE RECENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 31.7N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 31.4N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 31.2N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 31.6N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 32.8N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 36.2N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 39.0N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-05-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ALBERTO HAS BECOME MORE EXPOSED THIS MORNING...AND THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE\r\nSYSTEM.  OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL\r\nSUGGESTING AN INTENSITY AROUND 35 KT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR NOW.  AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...AT\r\nWHICH TIME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS CAN BE MADE.\r\n \r\nALBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE AT LEAST THREE STRIKES AGAINST ANY\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION.  FIRST...DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ARE\r\nROUGHLY 50 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT...AND THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY INGESTING\r\nSOME OF THIS DRY AIR.  SECOND...THE CENTER IS MOVING WEST OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA/\r\nGEORGIA COAST.  AND THIRD...UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST THEREFORE KEEPS ALBERTO AT LOW-END TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH\r\nTHROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OCCURRING ON\r\nTHURSDAY.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.  ALBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY\r\n72 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT\r\nTIMING OF THAT TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nA BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES HAS CAUSED ALBERTO\r\nTO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY...AND THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION IS 250/5 KT.  THE BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY POSITIONED\r\nOVER WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SLIDING EASTWARD\r\nTODAY WITH A PROGRESSIVE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nUPPER MIDWEST.  ALBERTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH\r\nTONIGHT...BUT THE EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE THE STORM NORTHEASTWARD BEGINNING ON MONDAY.  THERE IS\r\nVERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE ECMWF DIVERGES FROM THE CLUSTER OF OTHER MODELS\r\nAND SHOWS A SLOWER...MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS THEREFORE A LITTLE SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS ON DAYS 3 AND 4.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 31.5N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 31.2N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 31.4N  79.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 32.3N  77.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 34.2N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 38.0N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 39.5N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-05-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n500 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012\r\n \r\nALBERTO DOES NOT HAVE THE TYPICAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE OF A HEALTHY\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE AIR FORCE PLANE THAT SAMPLED THE STORM ONLY\r\nMEASURED MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 37 KT...YET SFMR\r\nVALUES WERE AS HIGH AS ABOUT 50 KT.  THE SFMR ESTIMATES ARE LIKELY\r\nTOO HIGH BASED ON COINCIDENT SPIKES IN THE RAIN RATE AND A\r\nWELL-DOCUMENTED HIGH BIAS AT LOW-END TROPICAL STORM WIND SPEEDS. \r\nIN ADDITION...DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS\r\nOF 50 KT NEAR THE SURFACE.  THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING HELD\r\nAT 40 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS\r\nDECOUPLED...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION MAY NOW BE TAKING SOME TIME\r\nTO SPIN DOWN.\r\n \r\nALBERTO IS INGESTING DRY AIR...AND IT HAS MOVED OVER SHELF WATERS\r\nTHAT ARE COLDER THAN 26C.  IN ADDITION...WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL TRAVERSE THE GULF STREAM AGAIN WHEN IT\r\nACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY...THE OTHERWISE HOSTILE\r\nCONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS UNLIKELY. \r\nSMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY\r\nDEPENDING ON THE BEHAVIOR OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT OVERALL LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY\r\nTHE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  ALBERTO COULD BECOME POST- \r\nTROPICAL BY WEDNESDAY AS IT MOVES TOWARDS EVEN COLDER WATER...WITH\r\nDISSIPATION POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BECOME SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY...AND IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT ALBERTO IS BEGINNING ITS ANTICIPATED COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP.\r\nTHE BLOCKING PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO BREAKDOWN THROUGH MONDAY...AND ALBERTO WILL RESPOND BY\r\nACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH.\r\nTHE 12Z ECMWF MODEL RUN...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS STILL A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE REST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nBUT A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AT 72 HOURS...HEDGING TOWARD THE ECMWF\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 30.9N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 30.8N  79.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 31.2N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 32.5N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 34.7N  73.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 38.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-05-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2012\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION THIS\r\nEVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL BANDING FEATURES PRESENT ON THE\r\nJACKSONVILLE DOPPLER RADAR. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS AND DOPPLER\r\nWIND DATA SUGGEST THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST BY MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO ALBERTO MOVING\r\nOVER WARM WATERS ALONG THE GULF STREAM...BUT IN A MODERATE-TO-\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN WEAKENING AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS. A PLAUSIBLE ALTERNATE\r\nSCENARIO IS THAT THE STORM LOSES ALL DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO\r\nMARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS...AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nALBERTO HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD AND IS MOVING 180/4.  THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN A PECULIAR PLACE WITHIN THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ALBERTO\r\nMOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...THEN TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A BIT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL\r\nTRENDS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 30.5N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 30.6N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 31.5N  77.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 33.2N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 35.5N  72.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 39.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-05-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n500 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF ALBERTO AGAIN THIS\r\nMORNING WITH BROKEN RAINBANDS CONTINUING AROUND THE CENTER. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALBERTO COULD BE WEAKER. THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nIS QUITE COMPACT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS EXTENDING NO MORE\r\nTHAN 150 N MI ACROSS. EVEN THOUGH ALBERTO HAS MOVED BACK OVER THE\r\nGULF STREAM...WHERE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY\r\nWARM...VERY DRY AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND STRONG\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...THEREFORE...KEEPS ALBERTO AT THE SAME\r\nINTENSITY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...ALBERTO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS\r\nAND BEFORE DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE\r\nNORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...NEARLY COMPLETING THE ANTICIPATED\r\nCOUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP. AN EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN\r\nTODAY AS AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE\r\nCYCLONE. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nIS FORECAST TO OCCUR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...TAKING THE COMPACT\r\nTROPICAL STORM PARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE...OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED\r\nSTATES COASTLINE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE EAST AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 30.4N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 30.6N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 31.8N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 33.5N  74.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 35.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-05-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n1100 AM EDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN OF THE STORM IS BEGINNING TO BECOME ELONGATED EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF INCREASING SHEAR.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUE.  AN AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF ALBERTO.  GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS SHOW A SUBSTANTIAL\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THIS...ALONG WITH DRY\r\nAIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AND\r\nDISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.  IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT ALBERTO COULD BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST...AND THE MOTION IS\r\nNOW ABOUT 090/6.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND\r\nREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH TO THE WEST OF ALBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK AND ROUGHLY IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS TRACK KEEPS THE SMALL\r\nCYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 30.4N  78.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 31.0N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 32.5N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 34.3N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 36.3N  70.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alberto","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-05-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n500 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT CONFIRM THAT\r\nALBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE\r\nWINDS WERE 37 KT AND PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 39 KT.  IT\r\nSHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT SEVERAL YACHTS FROM THE VOLVO OCEAN RACE\r\nHAVE BEEN SAILING NOT FAR FROM...OR THROUGH...THE CENTER OF\r\nALBERTO...AND HAVE ALSO MEASURED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.\r\nONE OF THE YACHTS MEASURED A PRESSURE VERY CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY SHEARED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW EXPOSED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A CONTINUED INCREASE IN VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nALBERTO WEAKENING TO DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE SOONER\r\nTHAN THAT.\r\n \r\nALBERTO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...OR 080/7.  THERE IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nNO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN\r\nAMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN EXTENSION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.  THIS FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE COMPACT\r\nCYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 30.5N  77.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 31.7N  76.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 33.4N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 35.4N  71.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 37.5N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alberto","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-05-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n1100 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL\r\nON ALBERTO. THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IS RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE DEPRESSION AND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA\r\nTO KEEP ALBERTO CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB. THE LAST RECON PASS\r\nTHROUGH ALBERTO AROUND 21Z INDICATED THE STRONGEST SURFACE AND\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THE\r\nLACK OF CONVECTION IN THAT PART OF THE CYCLONE FURTHER JUSTIFIES \r\nDOWNGRADING ALBERTO TO DEPRESSION STATUS. NOAA BUOY 41002 DIRECTLY\r\nAHEAD OF ALBERTO SHOULD PROVIDE SOME GROUND TRUTH LATER TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/11. ALTHOUGH ALBERTO HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING MORE EASTWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO\r\nBE STARTING TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE MORE\r\nEASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. A DEEPENING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ALBERTO TO\r\nGRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND GFS MODELS...WHICH\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nINCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 50 KT AHEAD OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH...ALONG WITH SSTS DECREASING TO\r\nLESS THAN 22C...SHOULD CONTINUE THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...AND IT\r\nIS POSSIBLE THAT ALBERTO COULD DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 30.9N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 32.1N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 34.2N  72.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 36.3N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 38.3N  67.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Alberto","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-05-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n500 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012\r\n \r\nGOES-E SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY SHOW BANDING\r\nREDEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND IS MORE THAN\r\nLIKELY TEMPORARY...GIVEN THE HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...I\r\nHAVE ELECTED TO MAINTAIN ALBERTO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 65 NMI EAST-NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION REPORTED A PEAK 1-MINUTE WIND OF 33 KT.\r\nSTRONG 50-60 KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF 22 DEGREES CELSIUS OR LESS SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING AND ULTIMATELY DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/13.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATION IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...ALL OF\r\nWHICH SHOW DISSIPATION IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 32.0N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 33.4N  73.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 35.5N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 37.5N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Alberto","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-05-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012012\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON ALBERTO. \r\nTHE CYCLONE NOW LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nDISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  \r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW OF ALBERTO IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OR 045/15.  A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS\r\nIDENTITY.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 33.1N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 34.6N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 36.8N  69.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-05-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PICTURES AS WELL AS REPORTS\r\nFROM NOAA BUOY 41002 THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE BROAD LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA OFF OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST HAS\r\nCOALESCED INTO A TIGHT...WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  AROUND 2200\r\nUTC...THE BUOY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB ALONG WITH\r\nPEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nAROUND 1001 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE\r\nCENTER HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE\r\nGENERALLY COOLED.  DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB WERE A SUBTROPICAL ST2.5.  GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE FACT THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS CENTERED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE...\r\nTHE LOW IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AT THIS TIME\r\nWITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/08...THOUGH RECENT FIXES SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE FORWARD SPEED MAY BE SLOWING.  A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS TEMPORARILY\r\nLEAVING BERYL IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT BERYL WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nAN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT\r\nSTEERED AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MOTION\r\nSHOULD BRING BERYL INLAND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S IN\r\nABOUT 2 DAYS...WHERE IT SHOULD BRIEFLY STALL. ALTHOUGH THE SPREAD\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AFTER THIS TIME...ALL THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nDEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES IN\r\nTHE 3-5 DAY PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION...WITH THE CENTER LIKELY\r\nEMERGING OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE\r\nMORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE PROXIMITY OF BERYL TO AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW MAY SLOW ITS\r\nABILITY TO TRANSITON TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MARGINALLY WARM WATERS\r\nAND DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE COULD ALSO IMPEDE ITS\r\nINTENSIFICATION...ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR FORECAST OVER THE STORM.  ONE POSITIVE FACTOR COULD BE\r\nTHE PASSAGE OF BERYL OVER WARM GULF STREAM WATERS WHICH COULD\r\nPOTENTIALLY PROVIDE IT WITH A MOMENTARY BOOST. THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH\r\nSHOWS ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING ONCE THE\r\nCENTER MOVES INLAND.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 32.5N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 32.3N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 31.4N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 30.5N  79.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 30.2N  81.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 30.5N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 31.2N  82.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  31/0000Z 32.5N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-05-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BERYL IS EXPOSED ABOUT 90 NM EAST OF THE REMAINING\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. OVERALL...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS AS THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. HOWEVER...\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATION REMAIN SUBTROPICAL 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 40 KT. BERYL IS\r\nSTILL ENTANGLED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTH AND\r\nEAST. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IF CONVECTION IS ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...IT COULD LIFT THE TROPOPAUSE AND ERODE THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW...ALLOWING BERYL TO TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TROPICAL STRUCTURE\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL AS SEEN IN FIELDS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO DEPRESSION STATUS...WITH\r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES BACK\r\nOVER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nFOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT THE CENTER OF BERYL HAS SLOWED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 255/04. AS RIDGING BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nWEEKEND...BERYL SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR\r\nSOUTHWEST TODAY...AND TURN WESTWARD AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE\r\nCOAST ON SUNDAY. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FROM 24 TO 48 HOURS THE NHC TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE NEW TVCA MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINCREASES REGARDING HOW FAR INLAND BERYL WILL MOVE AND HOW QUICKLY\r\nIT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING\r\nINTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD APPEARS TO\r\nBE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH BERYL WEAKENS AS IT MOVES\r\nINLAND...AS A SHALLOWER WEAKER CYCLONE WILL NOT BE PICKED UP AS\r\nQUICKLY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW\r\nMORE WESTWARD PROGRESS...MORE WEAKENING...AND ARE SLOWEST WITH THE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF DOES NOT\r\nMOVE BERYL AS FAR INLAND...MAINTAINS A DEEPER CYCLONE...AND\r\nACCELERATES IT NORTHEASTWARD MUCH FASTER. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE TVCA CONSENSUS AND NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A 0226\r\nUTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 32.3N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 31.8N  76.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 31.0N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 30.6N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 30.6N  81.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 31.0N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  31/0600Z 34.5N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-05-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nWILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF BERYL. \r\n\r\nBERYL HAS TURNED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS MOVING AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE\r\nTHAN EARLIER...NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT. A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO KEEP BERYL MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST BY LATE SUNDAY. THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND BRINGS THE\r\nCENTER OF BERYL TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA OR GEORGIA COASTLINE SUNDAY\r\nNIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL THE MODELS BECOME QUITE\r\nDIVERGENT...HOWEVER...AND DIFFER ON HOW FAR INLAND THE CYCLONE GETS\r\nBEFORE IT RECURVES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.\r\nSEVERAL OF THE MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND\r\nHWRF BRING BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES INLAND BEFORE IT REVERSES\r\nITS COURSE. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS RECURVATURE VERY\r\nNEAR THE COAST. THE DIFFERENCES IN THESE SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO BE DUE\r\nTO THE STRENGTH OF BERYL IN THE MODELS AND TO SOME DEGREE THE\r\nPOSITION AND AMPLITUDE OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...WHICH BLENDS THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE...IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL AND THEN VERY NEAR THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL STORM IS ENTANGLED WITH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nWITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nGLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND BERYL\r\nEVOLVING INTO A FULLY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SUNDAY. SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPECTED AS BERYL WILL BE OVER THE\r\nCOOLER SHELF WATERS BY THEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 31.6N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 31.1N  77.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 30.5N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 30.4N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 30.5N  82.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 31.2N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 32.5N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  31/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-05-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF BERYL...BUT THE CYCLONE HAS OTHERWISE CHANGED LITTLE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE DAY. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 40 KT. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST BEGUN ITS INVESTIGATION OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...AND WILL SOON PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 225/4. A GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST\r\nLATE SUNDAY. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF BERYL INLAND OVER\r\nNORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY\r\nMONDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE BERYL TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN SHARPLY RECURVE. THE\r\nMODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT DISAGREE\r\nCONSIDERABLY AFTER LANDFALL. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RUN BUT STILL SHOWS RECURVATURE\r\nVERY NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE. THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS TAKE BERYL A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES\r\nINLAND BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTHROUGH THE LANDFALL...AND THEN SLIGHTLY WEST OF IT THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH BERYL LIES OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF STREAM\r\nWATERS...DRY AIR AND THE OVERALL BROAD STRUCTURE OF ITS WIND FIELD\r\nSHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL. AT THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD BERYL WILL BE OVER COOLER WATERS AND IN A\r\nSTRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IS EXPECTED TO LOSE ANY\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 31.5N  76.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 30.9N  77.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 30.4N  79.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 30.4N  81.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 30.9N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 31.5N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 34.0N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  31/1800Z 38.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-05-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE STORM WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ANALYZED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 998 MB...WITH\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT AND SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF\r\n40-45 KT FROM THE SFMR.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.  STRUCTURALLY...THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS TRANSIENT BANDS OF\r\nCONVECTION FORM NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 230/6...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY BE A\r\nLITTLE FASTER.  BERYL IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nTHAT IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AS A STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS RIDGE TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 H...AND\r\nTHEN WEAKEN IT AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE BERYL TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nBETWEEN 24-36 H.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL STALL AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHERE IS A LARGE SPREAD ON WHERE AND WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN\r\nTHE EASTERNMOST ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH\r\n48 H...BUT REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE USUALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF.  AFTER RECURVATURE...THE\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT NEAR BERYL IS BECOMING MORE MOIST...AND THE\r\nCONVECTION IS GRADUALLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CENTER. \r\nTHESE TWO FACTORS SHOULD LEAD TO THE TRANSITION OF BERYL INTO A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nDOES NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PROCESS. \r\nBERYL SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER\r\nLAND.  AFTER RECURVATURE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT BERYL SHOULD RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE ATLANTIC DESPITE\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED\r\nMAINLY ON THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE ANALYZED AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 30.8N  77.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 30.4N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 30.2N  80.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...TROPICAL\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 30.7N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 35.0N  75.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  01/0000Z 39.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-05-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL STILL HAS THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH\r\nTHE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN A RING ABOUT 60-70 NM FROM THE\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A ST 3.0\r\nCLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. WHILE MICROWAVE AND GOES SOUNDER AIRMASS\r\nIMAGERY SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE LAST\r\n24 HOURS...BERYL IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION IS STILL TRANSIENT AND THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS LESS THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT WILL BE APPROACHING THE\r\nCOOLER SHELF WATERS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY\r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL. BERYL WILL WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HOURS AS\r\nIT MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE\r\nCENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS AND ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS BERYL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 255/09...AS THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO\r\nTURN MORE WESTWARD OVERNIGHT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THE\r\nWESTWARD TURN TODAY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THEN SLOW DOWN\r\nAFTER LANDFALL AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. THERE IS STILL A\r\nLARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AS TO HOW FAR WESTWARD BERYL\r\nWILL MOVE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA OR SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THE GFS\r\nAND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE WHILE THE ECMWF IS SITUATED FARTHEST EAST. AT 36\r\nAND 48 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST...BUT REMAINS BETWEEN THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY BERYL WILL RECURVE AHEAD OF A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF HAVE BOTH\r\nTRENDED CLOSER TO EACH OTHER AND TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...LYING\r\nBETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AND CLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 30.5N  78.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 30.4N  80.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  81.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 30.8N  82.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 31.2N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 33.0N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  01/0600Z 40.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-05-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN BROKEN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER\r\nOF BERYL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND IT APPEARS THAT BERYL\r\nMAY BE TRANSITIONING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE\r\nTRANSIENT NATURE OF THE EARLIER CONVECTION AND THE STILL SOMEWHAT\r\nLARGE AREA OF LIGHTER WINDS NEAR THE CENTER...BERYL IS MAINTAINED\r\nAS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BERYL RECENTLY MEASURED PEAK 1000 FT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 49 KT.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.\r\nBERYL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SLIGHTLY COOLER SHELF WATERS AND\r\nLIKELY DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH TIME FOR THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTO A DEPRESSION...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE\r\nCYCLONE REEMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN 2-3 DAYS.  BERYL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD... BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT CENTER FIXES HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nMAXIMUM ROTATION SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/09.  BERYL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD THROUGH LANDFALL THAT SHOULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nNORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THERE IS STILL A\r\nLARGE DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST BERYL WILL\r\nMOVE BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE ECMWF SHOWS BERYL TURNING MORE\r\nSHARPLY NORTHWARD...WHILE MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nTAKES THE CYCLONE WELL INLAND OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA/SOUTHERN\r\nGEORGIA.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE\r\nECMWF.  AFTER THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF BERYL...BUT DIFFER ON THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND\r\nECWMF AT 72 H AND BEYOND.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 30.1N  79.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 30.2N  80.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...TROPICAL\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 30.8N  82.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 31.4N  82.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 33.5N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 37.0N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 41.0N  58.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-05-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BANDS\r\nALL AROUND THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS\r\nCONTRACTED AND DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS NOW BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN STATUS IS\r\nALSO SUPPORTED BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS OF GFS FIELDS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 55 KT AT 18Z BASED ON A T3.5\r\nFROM TAFB AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST\r\nAIRCRAFT MISSION. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nIS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AND WILL PROVIDE A BETTER\r\nASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY SHORTLY.\r\n \r\nBERYL CONTINUES MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL TONIGHT AS\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE THE\r\nMAIN STEERING MECHANISM. AFTER LANDFALL...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UNITED\r\nSTATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN\r\nAND THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE AND SHOWS THE\r\nCENTER OF BERYL REMAINING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE\r\nOFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE IN TWO TO THREE DAYS AND THEN ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nLIES SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN BELOW...BERYL COULD GET A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AND BERYL IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME RESTRENGTHENING\r\nIS POSSIBLE ONCE BERYL MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN TWO\r\nTO THREE DAYS. COOLER WATERS...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...\r\nAND THE INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD\r\nCAUSE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 30.0N  80.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 30.0N  81.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 30.2N  82.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 30.6N  83.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 31.6N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 33.8N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 37.5N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-05-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012\r\n \r\n \r\nA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS IN BERYL FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER\r\nTHIS EVENING AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT...AND A\r\nRAIN-INFLATED PEAK SFMR WIND OF 62 KT. CORRECTING THE SFMR WIND FOR\r\nTHE RAIN YIELDS 55 KT. IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE TO FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND SPEED RATIO WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL. EARLIER DOPPLER\r\nRADAR DATA ALSO INDICATED WINDS AT 5000-6000 FT AS STRONG AS THOSE\r\nMEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE\r\nMEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF ONLY 50-55 KT WITHIN THIS\r\nREGION...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER REDUCTION FACTOR WAS REASONABLE.\r\nSINCE THAT TIME...THE STRONG DOPPLER WIND SPEED ESTIMATES WINDS\r\nHAVE DECREASED WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT\r\n3.5. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT BERYL IS NO LONGER\r\nINTENSIFYING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW HOURS...LEAVING NO TIME FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN\r\nFACT...SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY\r\nINLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nDSHIPS MODEL WHILE BERYL IS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE WHEN BERYL EMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT IT\r\nSHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nRADAR FIXES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BERYL WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS\r\nFLOW PATTERN SHOULD CARRY BERYL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 30.2N  81.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 30.5N  82.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 31.2N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 34.5N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 37.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0000Z 40.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beryl","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-05-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL HAS BEEN WEAKENING SINCE LANDFALL...AS INDICATED BY DECREASING\r\nSURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES...ESPECIALLY OVER\r\nLAND. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WITH THE\r\nHIGHEST WINDS LIKELY OCCURRING IN RAINBANDS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nHAS RISEN TO 997 MB. BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS\r\nIT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BUT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN 12 HR...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE\r\nCONFINED TO RAINBANDS NEAR THE COAST. BERYL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A\r\nDEPRESSION BY 24 HOURS...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH EXPECTED\r\nWHILE THE CENTER REMAINS INLAND. SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN\r\nAFTER THE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY AND UNDERGOES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LGEM UNTIL TRANSITION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 280/07...A LITTLE FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. BERYL SHOULD SLOW DOWN TODAY AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nWEAKENS AND THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ON\r\nTUESDAY AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. ADDITIONAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE TRACK OF BERYL AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES. THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 30.3N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 30.6N  82.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 31.2N  82.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 31.9N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 32.8N  79.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 35.7N  73.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 38.5N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0600Z 43.0N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 AM EDT MON MAY 28 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DROPPED\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS\r\nCOULD STILL OCCUR ASSOCIATED WITH RAINBANDS PRIMARILY OVER WATER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  BERYL SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE MOVING OVER LAND. ONCE OVER\r\nOPEN WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD RESTRENGTHEN A LITTLE...BUT MOST LIKELY IT WILL LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LATTER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5\r\nKNOTS. BERYL IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WILL\r\nBECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,\r\nTHIS FLOW PATTERN WILL STEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT FIVE\r\nDAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHLY PACKED THIS\r\nMORNING.\r\n \r\nAT THIS POINT...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL IS VERY\r\nHEAVY RAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO\r\nSOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 30.5N  82.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 31.0N  83.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 31.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 32.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 33.5N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 36.5N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 40.0N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/1200Z 44.5N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE\r\nAND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ONLY A FEW BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO MAINTAIN 25 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT\r\nIS MOVING OVER LAND. THERE IS A CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION...BUT NOT\r\nMUCH...IF THE CYCLONE MOVES BACK OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nCROSSES THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BEYOND 48 HOURS. MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BERYL WILL LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nIN 96 HOURS AND WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR\r\n325 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TOMORROW\r\nMORNING. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPECTED ESTABLISHMENT OF\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY\r\nRAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO\r\nSOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 30.8N  83.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 31.2N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 32.1N  82.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 33.0N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 34.0N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 37.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 38.5N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 PM EDT MON MAY 28 2012\r\n \r\nWHILE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS INLAND...THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO DISPLAY A RATHER SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD IN ADDITION TO\r\nWELL-DEFINED BANDING AS OBSERVED BY THE WSR-88D RADAR AND SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  PEAK WINDS IN THIS SYSTEM...NEAR 25 KT...HAVE BEEN\r\nOCCURRING ALONG THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTS\r\nAS MEASURED BY SOME WEATHERFLOW WEATHER STATIONS.\r\n \r\nBERYL IS SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/3.  AS A VIGOROUS\r\nSHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES APPROACHES THE\r\nCYCLONE...BERYL WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT A DAY.\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL THEN ACCELERATE IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nTVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nAS LONG AS IT MAINTAINS ITS DEEP CONVECTION...BERYL IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTO REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WHILE IT IS\r\nMOVING SLOWLY ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. BY WEDNESDAY\r\nMORNING...BERYL SHOULD BE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AGAIN. THERE\r\nIS A NARROW SWATH OF WARM OCEAN WITHIN THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN THE\r\nCOOL SHELF WATERS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BERYL\r\nHAS ABOUT A DAY OF TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM WHILE THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS MODERATE TO ALLOW SOME REINTENSIFICATION BACK TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO A BLEND\r\nOF THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED BY THE FSU\r\nCYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. ABSORPTION OF BERYL INTO A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS INDICATED AFTER FOUR DAYS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS. HOWEVER...OTHER MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nBERYL MAY BECOME THE DOMINANT VORTEX AND REMAIN INTACT LONGER.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN CONCERN WITH SLOW MOVING BERYL CONTINUES TO BE VERY HEAVY\r\nRAINS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA AND\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 30.8N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 31.3N  83.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 32.1N  81.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 33.2N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 34.6N  76.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 37.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 40.0N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION IN A FEW BANDS TO THE\r\nEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND SO IT STILL QUALIFIES AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE RADAR\r\nPRESENTATION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DEGRADED.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...\r\nAS WELL AS RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE WESTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION HAS ENDED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/2. \r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS...ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 25 KT...ARE OVER WATER\r\nAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO ACCELERATE BERYL NORTHEASTWARD VERY SHORTLY...LIKELY TAKING\r\nTHE CENTER BACK OVER WATER WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  FOR AN\r\nACCELERATING SYSTEM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...AT LEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nESSENTIALLY BLENDS THE ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE...WITH MORE\r\nWEIGHT PLACED ON THE SLOWER ECMWF.\r\n \r\nBERYL WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGH AS\r\nIT ACCELERATES AND MOVES OFFSHORE AND OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM\r\nWATERS...IN WHAT SHOULD STILL BE A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY\r\nNEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nOFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.\r\n\r\nA FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE IS SHOWN\r\nOVERTAKING BERYL IN ABOUT 66 HOURS IN THE GFS...AND IN ABOUT 84\r\nHOURS IN THE ECMWF.  BASED ON THIS GUIDANCE AND THE EXPECTED COOLER\r\nWATERS BELOW THE CYCLONE BY THAT TIME...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS\r\nCALLED FOR ON DAY THREE...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 30.9N  83.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 31.5N  82.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 32.4N  80.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 33.7N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 35.5N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 38.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A PERSISTENT\r\nCIRCULATION AND A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND LOCATED TO\r\nTHE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY\r\nIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY\r\nIS EXPECTED TODAY WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. THERE IS AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE\r\nCIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM BETWEEN\r\n24 AND 36 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT BERYL WILL BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS OR EVEN EARLIER...AND THEN BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 050 DEGREES AT\r\n4 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-\r\nMOVING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A\r\nGENERAL NORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH\r\nA GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES.\r\nMOST OF THE TRACK MODELS AGREE ON THIS SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY\r\nNEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 36 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nOFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 31.5N  82.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 32.2N  81.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 33.3N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 34.7N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 36.2N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 40.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION DURING THE DAY. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE\r\nOCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER WITHIN RAINBANDS. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE\r\nCENTER IS OVER LAND. BERYL IS FORECAST TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF\r\nSTREAM BEYOND 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO IMPLY\r\nTHAT BERYL WILL BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 48\r\nHOURS...AND LATER BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THIS IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TO THE NORTHEAST...OR 055\r\nDEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nTHE WESTERLIES AROUND THE BASE OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORT WAVE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A GENERAL\r\nNORTHEAST MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE SHORT WAVE AMPLIFIES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nAND LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF WHICH IS THE SOUTHERNMOST SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED VERY\r\nNEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nOFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 31.8N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 32.8N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 34.2N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 37.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...\r\nSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE  \r\nHAVE GREATLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THAT PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT WIND\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41008 AND SHIP KCDK.\r\n \r\nAS EXPECTED...THE DEPRESSION IS ACCELERATING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD \r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 065 DEGREES AT 9 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS BERYL PICKING UP FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES ALONG THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHERE IS INCREASING SPREAD...WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN INTENSIFYING\r\nCYCLONE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE ECMWF AND\r\nUKMET MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER LOW MOVING MORE EASTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND\r\nIS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ALSO FOLLOWS THE ECMWF MODEL BY CALLING FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nBE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. A POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO IS FOR BERYL TO BECOME THE PRIMARY EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nAFTER BERYL EXITS THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM.\r\nTHIS WILL PROVIDE A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BERYL TO REGAIN\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT BERYL WILL\r\nBECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR\r\nTHE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS IN 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nOFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS CURRENTLY SEEM NECESSARY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 32.2N  81.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 33.1N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 34.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 36.5N  71.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 37.7N  66.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 40.0N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012\r\n \r\nBERYL HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST 6 H.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1001\r\nMB...WHILE A COMBINATION OF SURFACE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 30 KT IN A BAND\r\nOVER WATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DESPITE THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY DUE TO A TONGUE OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 H...BERYL WILL PASS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE PRODUCES UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  THIS COMBINATION\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS.  BY 36-\r\n48 H...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST BERYL TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.\r\nTHE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW WILL BERYL WILL EVOLVE AFTER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE CANADIAN MERGES THE SYSTEM WITH A\r\nCOLD FRONT IN 72 H...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST BERYL TO\r\nBECOME THE FOCUS OF A STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC...POSSIBLY BY MERGER WITH A NEARBY FRONTAL WAVE.  THE\r\nECMWF AND UKMET SHOW BERYL AND THE FRONTAL WAVE REMAINING SPEARATE\r\nTHROUGH 120 H.  A 96 H FORECAST POINT HAS BEEN ADDED AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE EXTREMES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/11.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BERYL WILL ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 H...WITH THE CENTER MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO\r\nTHE COAST OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE REACHING THE OPEN\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL\r\nLOCATION AND MOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOWING A\r\nPOSITION EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND BY 96-120 H...WHILE THE ECMWF AND\r\nUKMET FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST.  THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES\r\nAND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TROPICAL STORM CENTERED NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST FROM 12-24 H...IT IS EXPECTED THAT\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND\r\nOFFSHORE QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  AS A RESULT...NO COASTAL WATCHES\r\nOR WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 33.1N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 34.2N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 36.0N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 37.5N  69.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 38.6N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 39.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 41.0N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beryl","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n1100 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BERYL IS\r\nLOSING SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH\r\nAN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND WELL\r\nREMOVED AND EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THE RAIN IS SHIFTING NORTHWARD\r\nAS NORMALLY OCCURS DURING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OVER WATER\r\nWITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND THE INTERACTION WITH THE FRONT...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD\r\nTHAT BERYL WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WINDS COULD INCREASE A LITTLE\r\nBUT THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OVER\r\nWATER.\r\n \r\nBERYL HAS ACCELERATED AND IT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST ABOUT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSTEER BERYL NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD\r\nSPEED. SINCE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED...THERE IS\r\nCONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE U.S. DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND ACCELERATE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AS A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 34.2N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 35.5N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 37.0N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 38.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 39.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 38.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Beryl","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-05-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012\r\n500 PM EDT WED MAY 30 2012\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF BERYL HAS DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON...TO THE POINT\r\nWHERE IT IS DIFFICULT TO STILL CLASSIFY IT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED...\r\nLEAVING A CLOUD PATTERN THAT MORE RESEMBLES AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 18Z\r\nWERE T1.0 OR LESS.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL SURFACE CENTER/PRESSURE MINIMUM OF BERYL HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED ALONG A SW/NE AXIS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A COASTAL\r\nTROUGH TO ITS NORTH. AS A RESULT OF THESE STRUCTURAL CHANGES...BERYL\r\nIS CONSIDERED POST-TROPICAL...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nBERYL HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH OVERTOOK THE CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/18.\r\nDESPITE THE LOSS OF TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...OR PERHAPS BECAUSE\r\nOF THEM...THE CYCLONE HAS DEEPENED TODAY. SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS SHOW THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER LOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH BERYL HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONALLY TO GALE FORCE...AND HIGH SURF\r\nARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN\r\nVIRGINIA THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC\r\nTO YOUR AREA. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONSULT HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 34.9N  76.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 36.2N  73.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 37.8N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 39.1N  63.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 39.3N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 39.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED WELL\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION\r\nAND COVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T2.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB.  FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS ALSO SHOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM AS A SYMMETRIC WARM CORE...ALBEIT SHALLOW...SYSTEM.  THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT IS BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA\r\nAND A SHIP THAT REPORTED 35-KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nTHIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/7.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS\r\nFORECAST TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY\r\nFLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...IT IS FORECAST\r\nTO TURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF\r\nLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL\r\nSCENARIO...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AS TO HOW SHARP THE CYCLONE\r\nTURNS NORTHWARD.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF \r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nCHRIS TRAVERSES THE MARGINALLY WARM WATERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE GULF STREAM.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS IN\r\n36-48 HOURS...ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW STRENGTHENING AS\r\nA BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IN 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nONLY TWICE BEFORE...IN 1887 AND 1959...HAS THE THIRD STORM OF THE\r\nSEASON FORMED EARLIER THAN THIS DATE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 39.3N  57.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 39.2N  54.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 39.5N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 40.9N  46.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 43.3N  44.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 45.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE JUN 19 2012\r\n \r\nCHRIS IS PRODUCING A CURLED...COMPACT AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT\r\nIS DISPLACED JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT...AND THE\r\nLATEST UW-CIMSS ADT IS ABOUT 40 KT.  SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...THE INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nHELD AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nCHRIS IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SO\r\nIT IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A FASTER SPEED...OR\r\n110/11 KT.  A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE NORTHERN END\r\nOF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND CAUSE CHRIS TO FURTHER ACCELERATE\r\nTOWARD THE EAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.  AFTER\r\nTHE LOW CLOSES OFF AND STALLS...CHRIS WILL BEGIN TO LOOP\r\nCYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW BY 48 AND 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK MODELS\r\nALL AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE GFS AND ECMWF LIE ON THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE ENVELOPE WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF LIE ON THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE.  GIVEN THE MID-LATITUDE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS\r\nMORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.  DISSIPATION IS\r\nFORECAST BY 96 HOURS WHEN CHRIS SHOULD BE FULLY ABSORBED WITHIN THE\r\nCLOSED LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT PROVIDE A CLEAR-CUT ANSWER OF\r\nWHEN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL END.  THE FSU PHASE-SPACE\r\nDIAGRAMS BASED OFF THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE THERMAL STRUCTURE WILL\r\nBECOME INCREASINGLY ASYMMETRIC WITH A SHALLOWER WARM CORE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THAT CHRIS\r\nWILL AGAIN DEVELOP A DEEPER WARM CORE...BUT THIS MOST LIKELY IS\r\nREPRESENTATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL WARM SECLUSION.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...CHRIS IS FORECAST TO BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY 36 HOURS. \r\nDUE TO RELATIVELY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH\r\nUNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND FEEDS OFF BAROCLINIC ENERGY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 38.8N  56.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 38.7N  52.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 39.5N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 41.4N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 43.7N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 44.5N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n500 AM AST WED JUN 20 2012\r\n \r\nCHRIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A COMMA-SHAPED BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS THAT\r\nIS WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  GIVEN THAT THE SATELLITE-OBSERVED STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nSTORM HAS SHOWN LITTLE CHANGE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nALSO UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  CHRIS WILL BE MOVING OVER RELATIVELY COOL\r\nWATERS AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE EARLY PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 36 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BECOME INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE SO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AROUND THAT TIME. \r\nSOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES IS POSSIBLE\r\nWITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MERGE WITH\r\nANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED TO 100/15.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...AND A\r\nCLOSED LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH. \r\nCHRIS SHOULD ACCELERATE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE LOW TODAY...AND AFTERWARDS THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS LIKELY TO CURVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN AND\r\nNORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 38.2N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 38.3N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 39.6N  45.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 42.0N  42.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 44.0N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 44.0N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n1100 AM AST WED JUN 20 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF CHRIS HAS IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY.\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH SEVERAL BANDS\r\nOF SHOWERS WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND RECENT UW/CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nT-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...CHRIS WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVING\r\nOVER MUCH COLDER WATERS. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL INITIALLY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...BEFORE WEAKENING IN 2-3 DAYS.  RECENT RUNS\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE POST-TROPICAL LOW COULD\r\nREMAIN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AND NOT BE THE ONE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW.  FOR NOW THE NHC FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CALL\r\nFOR POST-TROPICAL CHRIS TO BE ABSORBED...BUT CHANGES TO THIS\r\nSCENARIO MAY BE REQUIRED IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nCHRIS APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n090/19 KT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST...THEN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A CLOSED\r\nLOW FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...\r\nECMWF...AND ON THE POST-TROPICAL PORTION OF THE TRACK PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 38.1N  51.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 38.6N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 40.5N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 43.6N  41.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 45.0N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 43.0N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n500 PM AST WED JUN 20 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ONLY A FEW BANDING FEATURES ARE SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS ROTATING\r\nAROUND THE CENTER.  IN FACT...A RECENT SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE\r\nREVEALED A RING OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPPED A LITTLE MORE THAN\r\nHALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY\r\nAFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAD A COUPLE 40-KT WIND\r\nVECTORS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  GIVEN THE LOW BIAS OF THAT\r\nINSTRUMENT AND THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nIT IS DOUBTFUL THAT CHRIS WILL STRENGTHEN ANY FURTHER AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER WITHIN 12 HOURS. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO PREDICT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nMAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OR PERHAPS STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS A\r\nBAROCLINIC SYSTEM ON THURSDAY.  AFTER 36 HOURS...GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nCHRIS IS MOVING EASTWARD OR 085 DEGREES AT 18 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST CUTS OFF.  THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE UPPER-LOW BEFORE THE MERGER TAKES\r\nPLACE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 38.5N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 39.4N  45.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 41.7N  42.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 44.3N  42.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 44.2N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 42.5N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-06-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n1100 PM AST WED JUN 20 2012\r\n \r\nCHRIS HAS HAD WHAT COULD BE CONSIDERED AN EYE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES DO NOT SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE THEREFORE BEING KEPT AT 50 KT.  EVEN IF CHRIS IS\r\nA LITTLE STRONGER...THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES LESS THAN 22C...AND THE MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD BE\r\nTOO STABLE TO ALLOW STRONGER WINDS TO BE MIXED TO THE OCEAN\r\nSURFACE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 075 DEGREES AT 19 KT...AND CHRIS WILL LIKELY\r\nBEGIN TO DECELERATE AND LOOP COUNTERCLOCKWISE WHILE INTERACTING\r\nWITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW TO ITS NORTH.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE\r\nDISPARITY BETWEEN THE TRACK MODELS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SEEM TO AGREE THAT CHRIS WILL BE ABSORBED BY\r\nOR MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST. \r\nTHE FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS STILL ARGUE THAT CHRIS WILL DEVELOP A\r\nDEEPER WARM CORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE GFS FIELDS\r\nSHOW CHRIS BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS\r\nNORTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...ENDING UP ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE\r\nBOUNDARY BY 48 HOURS.  CHRIS COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOMETIME\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IF IT LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...AND IT\r\nSHOULD BE INVOLVED WITH THE FRONT ENOUGH TO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD START WHEN CHRIS BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 38.9N  46.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 40.3N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 43.0N  42.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 44.5N  43.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 43.8N  45.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-06-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n500 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012\r\n \r\nCHRIS HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF\r\nCONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -50C TO -60C DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND DO NOT SUPPORT A\r\nHIGHER INTENSITY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KT. EVEN\r\nIF CHRIS IS STRONGER THAN ESTIMATED...THE PASSAGE OF THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER SUB-22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD BE INHIBITING AN\r\nEFFICIENT CONVECTIVE TRANSPORT OF THE STRONGEST WINDS TO THE\r\nOCEAN SURFACE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 065/17...WHICH IS A BIT SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT DECELERATES AND DUMBBELLS\r\nCYCLONICALLY AROUND A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO CUT\r\nOFF SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS CHRIS BEING ABSORBED BY\r\nTHIS WEATHER FEATURE IN 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE NEW ENTITY\r\nCOMPLETING A CYCLONIC LOOP AND THEN MOVING EASTWARD TO EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THIS SCENARIO...AND THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE FACT THAT CHRIS IS MOVING OVER RATHER COOL WATERS...\r\nA 0505 UTC AMSU PASSES STILL SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED\r\nMODERATE TO DEEP WARM CORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE.\r\nALTHOUGH CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN WARM-CORE CHARACTERISTICS\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...IT COULD LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWHILE MOVING OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND BE DECLARED POST-TROPICAL. \r\nSHOULD IT MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION LONGER...EITHER ITS INTERACTION\r\nWITH A LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH AND/OR ITS\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW TO ITS WEST SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 39.9N  44.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 41.6N  43.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 43.6N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 44.3N  44.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 43.0N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Chris","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-06-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n1100 AM AST THU JUN 21 2012\r\n \r\nCHRIS HAS MAINTAINED ITS EYE FEATURE THIS MORNING...AND IN FACT THE\r\nSATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS IMPROVED.  A 1111Z SSMIS OVERPASS ALSO\r\nINDICATED A SOLID CLOSED RING ON THE 37 GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. \r\nTHE EYE TEMPERATURE HAS WARMED AND THE COLD INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS\r\nARE -60C TO -70C...RESULTING IN A DVORAK SATELLITE DATA-T ESTIMATES\r\nOF 4.5 AND CONSTRAINED FINAL T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  IN ADDITION...NOW THAT THE CIMSS ADT HAS OBJECTIVELY\r\nIDENTIFIED AN EYE SCENE TYPE...THE LAST FEW RAW T-NUMBERS WERE ALSO\r\n4.4 TO 4.5.  BASED ON THESE DATA AND CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY\r\nCOOL SSTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 65 KT...MAKING CHRIS\r\nTHE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWARD\r\nOVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AT AN\r\nESTIMATED 050/17.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nLOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS AS THE CYCLONE TURNS\r\nCYCLONICALLY...NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LARGER MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL BAROCLINIC SYSTEM.  AFTERWARD...CHRIS SHOULD ULTIMATELY\r\nTURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMID-LATITUDE LOW IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 41.1N  43.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 42.8N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 44.0N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 43.5N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 42.5N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-06-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n500 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012\r\n \r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 19-20C AND A MORE STABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT ARE FINALLY TAKING ITS TOLL\r\nON CHRIS. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS OPENED UP OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CYCLONE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE COME\r\nDOWN AND THE CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES SHOW AN INTENSITY BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nLOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nAND CHRIS IS FORECAST TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW CHRIS BECOMING\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW IN 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...015/12 KT.\r\nCHRIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS IN THE PERIPHERAL FLOW OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. \r\nA SUBSEQUENT TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH COULD FOLLOW...WITH CHRIS BEING\r\nABSORBED WITHIN THE LARGER LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 42.4N  42.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 43.9N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 43.8N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 42.8N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-06-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n1100 PM AST THU JUN 21 2012\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS RETAINS A TIGHT CIRCULATION THIS EVENING AS\r\nBEST OBSERVED BY A 2349Z METOP-A MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE FROM THE\r\nNRL WEBSITE.  AS THE CONVECTION IN THE INNER CORE HAS WARMED...THE\r\nDVORAK TECHNIQUE CANNOT PROVIDE A DATA-T NUMBER FOR INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  THE MODEL EXPECTED T-NUMBER FROM SAB AND TAFB PROVIDE A\r\nRANGE BETWEEN 45 AND 65 KT.  A 2221Z AMSU PASS SUGGESTED AN\r\nINTENSITY AROUND 55 KT FROM THE CIMSS TECHNIQUE.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KT...THOUGH WITH SUBSTANTIAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN WHILE OVER\r\nQUITE CHILLY WATERS AND IT IS LIKELY THAT IT WILL BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...OR SOONER...IF RELATIVELY\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nCHRIS IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.  THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD\r\nTURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A DAY AS IT IS ADVECTED AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE.  A SECONDARY SURFACE\r\nLOW CURRENTLY SOUTHWEST OF CHRIS IS PROJECTED BY ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS...EXCEPT FOR HWRF...TO ABSORB THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nCHRIS IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 43.6N  42.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 44.2N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 43.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chris","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-06-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n500 AM AST FRI JUN 22 2012\r\n \r\nCHRIS CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSTORM IS NOW DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND ONLY CONSISTS OF A TIGHT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 45 KT...FOLLOWING THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS. CHRIS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND WILL\r\nLIKELY COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12. CHRIS...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT...IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO ITS\r\nSOUTH. THIS LARGER LOW WILL ULTIMATELY ABSORB WHATEVER IS LEFT OF\r\nCHRIS IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nGUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED ON AN OSCAT PASS\r\nAROUND 0200 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 44.8N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 44.3N  45.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 43.2N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Chris","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-06-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI JUN 22 2012\r\n \r\nCHRIS HAS NOT HAD SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...\r\nSO IT IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH 40-KT WINDS.\r\nREDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED SINCE THE SYSTEM IS\r\nOVER WATERS COOLER THAN 20C...AND ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS LOOPING COUNTERCLOCKWISE AROUND THE OTHER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW AND HAS A MOTION OF 255 DEGREES AT 14 KT.  CHRIS\r\nSHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nMERGING WITH THE OTHER LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW\r\nGUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.  ADDITIONAL\r\nINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER\r\nNFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 44.6N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 43.5N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  23/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-06-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n400 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE...SATELLITE...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY DEFINED TO CLASSIFY THIS\r\nSYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A\r\nHIGHEST 1000-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 61 KT AND SFMR WINDS NEAR 45\r\nKT.  THESE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGES LOCATED OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND DEBBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN TWO BRANCHES...WITH\r\nTHE GFS AND GFDL SHOWING AN EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS FLORIDA...AND\r\nTHE REST OF THE MODELS BRINGING DEBBY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF TOWARDS TEXAS.  EVEN THOUGH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS SHOWS AN\r\nEASTWARD TRACK...MORE THAN HALF OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING MODELS...MAKING THE WESTWARD\r\nSCENARIO SEEM MORE LIKELY.  IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE TOO THAT THE\r\nECMWF MODEL SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN INDICATED IN THE\r\nNHC FORECAST...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEBBY COULD REACH THE COAST\r\nEARLIER THAN INDICATED.\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS CURRENTLY A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED IN A CURVED BAND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nIS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE\r\nOF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...AND A GREATER CHANCE OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BECAUSE THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE GFS SOLUTION...THE GFS FIELDS USED\r\nBY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF\r\nTHE CONDITIONS ENCOUNTERED BY DEBBY.  THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE\r\nSHOWS MORE STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS THE EARLIEST 4TH STORM IN THE HISTORICAL RECORDS...\r\nSURPASSING HURRICANE DENNIS OF 2005...WHICH BECAME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nON JULY 5TH.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 26.2N  87.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 26.9N  87.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 27.3N  88.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 27.4N  88.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 27.5N  89.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 27.5N  91.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 27.5N  93.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 27.5N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-06-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS GRADUALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AS THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHEAR SHIFTS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY\r\nCOMPONENT. SHIP ZCDJ2 LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER AND\r\nNEAR NOAA BUOY 42003 REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1001.6 MB AND 38 KT\r\nWINDS AT 24/00Z. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nIS CONSERVATIVELY ESTIMATED TO BE 998 MB. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE\r\nDATA AT 23/2020Z INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT IN\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH IS EQUAL TO ABOUT 49 KT SURFACE\r\nWINDS. CONVECTION WAS SOMEWHAT MEAGER AT THAT...BUT SINCE THEN HAS\r\nINCREASED RATHER MARKEDLY IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A SOLID 45 KT.\r\n\r\nDEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. MULTIPLE\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTICES HAVE BEEN OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS ABOUT A MEAN CENTER OF ROTATION OF\r\nA LARGER GYRE...AND THE LOCATION OF THE LARGER STATIONARY GYRE IS\r\nTHE ADVISORY POSITION. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SLIGHT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION DUE TO REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER CLOSER TO\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION...THE GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO SHOULD BE SLOWLY POLEWARD. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S.\r\nHAS A DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST...WHICH IS CREATING\r\nDOWNSTREAM RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS INCREASED RIDGING IS REFLECTED BY 20-40 METER 500 MB HEIGHT\r\nRISES AT 00Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND EXTENDING\r\nAS FAR EAST AS THE CAROLINA COASTS. THIS BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY 36-48\r\nHOURS...WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nGULF AFTER THAT. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT\r\nFOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...SUPPORTS THE GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nMOTION SCENARIO. THE MAIN REASON THAT THE GFS MOVES DEBBY EASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF IS DUE TO IT HAVING A WEAKER AND MORE\r\nVERTICALLY SHALLOW STORM DEPICTED IN THE MODEL. GIVEN THE EXPECTED\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WITH WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS...A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST\r\nWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEPICTED IN THE\r\nECMWF...UKMET... NOGAPS MODELS SEEMS A MORE REASONABLE SCENARIO.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY\r\nGIVE WAY TO SOUTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WEAKER WIND\r\nSHEAR BY 36-48 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH ALLOWS DEBBY TO MOVE UNDERNEATH A 200\r\nMB RIDGE AXIS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nECMWF MODEL...WHICH IS FORECASTING A HURRICANE CENTRAL PRESSURE BY\r\n96 HOURS...AND IS ABOVE THE GFS-BASED SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SINCE\r\nTHAT OUTPUT LIKELY DOES NOT REPRESENT THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nTHAT DEBBY WILL ENCOUNTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND BRINGS DEBBY TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 26.3N  87.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 26.7N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 27.0N  88.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 27.1N  88.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 27.2N  89.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 27.2N  91.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 27.2N  93.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 27.2N  95.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-06-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n400 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DEBBY HAS BEEN PRODUCING\r\nVERY COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION BUT THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND\r\nLIKELY THE STRONGEST WINDS...ARE OCCURRING SOME 100 TO 150 MILES\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 45 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DATA FROM AN ASCAT PASS\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AGO.  NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...HOWEVER THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE NOT UNANIMOUS ON THIS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSEST TO THE MOST RECENT HWRF GUIDANCE...AND IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT WE HAVE LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nINTENSITY CHANGE. \r\n\r\nWITH INFRARED IMAGERY THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH PARTIALLY EXPOSED...HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE FIXES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE ABOUT 50 MILES APART.  MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR 360/3.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS\r\nSTORM IS EXTREMELY CHALLENGING.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES WAS BASED ON A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH WOULD CAUSE DEBBY TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO COAST IN SEVERAL DAYS.  THAT TRACK\r\nSCENARIO WAS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN THE\r\nBEST-PERFORMING GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS.  HOWEVER...THE\r\n0000 RUN OF THAT MODEL HAS SHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY TO THE NORTH AND\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL HAS ALSO\r\nSHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT.  IN FACT...ONLY THE HWRF MODEL\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...AND EVEN IT IS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THEM.  THEREFORE AN UNUSUALLY LARGE RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT\r\nTO THE NHC FORECAST IS REQUIRED...AND ADDITIONAL SHIFTS TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST MAY BE NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY PACKAGES.\r\n\r\nNEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 27.3N  87.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 27.5N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 27.9N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 28.2N  88.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 28.3N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 28.5N  90.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 28.5N  92.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 28.5N  93.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-06-24 12:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n700 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012\r\n \r\nTHE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO ISSUE A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE\r\nOCHOLOCKONEE RIVER. THIS IS BASED ON THE EXPANSION OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nCHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK NOR INTENSITY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1200Z 27.5N  87.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 27.5N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 27.9N  87.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 28.2N  88.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 28.3N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 28.5N  90.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 28.5N  92.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 28.5N  93.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-06-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012\r\n \r\nIT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.\r\nDEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3\r\nKNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS\r\nAND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST. \r\n\r\nDEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.   \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK.  GIVEN THE\r\nWESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE\r\nHISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nMOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT\r\nCURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS\r\nNOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD\r\nSOLUTION.  WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nAT ANY TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 28.0N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 28.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 28.5N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 28.5N  86.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 28.7N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 29.0N  88.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 29.5N  90.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 30.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-06-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n400 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK WITH THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NO LONGER BRINGS DEBBY WESTWARD\r\nALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND INSTEAD KEEPS THE CYCLONE\r\nMEANDERING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\nTHIS FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSISTENT EASTWARD\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE GFS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND THE NEW\r\nTWIST OF THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nFORECASTING DEBBY TO MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO... NOW\r\nHAS THE CYCLONE MEANDERING FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF. SINCE THESE TWO RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN\r\nMARGINALLY BETTER AGREEMENT...I AM A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENT...BUT\r\nNOT COMPLETELY...THAT DEBBY IS NOT GOING TO TURN WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nGULF. HOWEVER...NEW OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS A SPRAWLING SYSTEM...WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY\r\nIN A CURVED BAND WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  DATA FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\nMUCH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BECAUSE DEBBY IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN OVER WATER...THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR A SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL LOCATED BE NORTH OF THE AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND\r\nTHE UPWELLING COULD HALT THE INTENSIFICATION. \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 28.4N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 28.7N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 29.0N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 29.0N  85.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 29.0N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 29.5N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 30.0N  85.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 30.5N  85.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-06-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF DEBBY IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY HAS DEGRADED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AS A SHARP MID-LEVEL DRY INTRUSION HAS\r\nWORKED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND ERODED ALL OF THE\r\nINNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT\r\n50 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 991 MB\r\nREPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nDEBBY HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. BOTH 18Z\r\nAND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nBUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY...AND THIS\r\nHAS LIKELY BEEN THE REASON FOR THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOTION\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...EXCEPT\r\nFOR THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS...INDICATE THIS BLOCKING PATTERN\r\nACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE AS FAST-MOVING\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASS WELL TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY. THE RESULT\r\nSHOULD BE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...AND THEN ONLY DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AFTER THAT AS THE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nGFS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH A FAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE LARGE SPRAWLING NATURE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE AND THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WOULD SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE GFS MODEL MAY BE LIFTING OUT DEBBY TOO QUICKLY. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.\r\n \r\nDEBBY HAS FINALLY CONSOLIDATED ALL OF THE MULTIPLE SMALL SWIRLS INTO\r\nA WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP DRY SLOT TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN\r\nUP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ADVECTS WESTWARD INTO THE\r\nINNER CORE. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR\r\nSOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEFORE DEBBY BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND\r\nOR COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE OCCURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nFOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE\r\nHWRF/GFDL REGIONAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 28.3N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 28.6N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 28.7N  85.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 28.8N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 28.9N  85.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 29.4N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 29.9N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n120H  30/0000Z 30.4N  85.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-06-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n400 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012\r\n \r\nDEBBY HAS A HIGHLY UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\nALTHOUGH RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...THESE SHOWERS ARE BEING PRODUCED BY SHALLOW\r\nCONVECTION AS THE ENHANCED IR IMAGES DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nAREAS OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  AIRCRAFT DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO\r\nALONG WITH SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE\r\nWINDS HAVE DECREASED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.\r\nDEBBY IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE AREA OF MAXIMUM OCEANIC HEAT\r\nCONTENT...BUT AS LONG AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER AND IS ABLE\r\nTO REGENERATE SOME DEEP CONVECTION THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT\r\nLEAST SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION.  THE CURRENT NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES...BUT A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION IS QUASI-STATIONARY.  DEBBY REMAINS IN\r\nA COL REGION OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW BETWEEN TWO\r\nANTICYCLONES...AND IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING AT LEAST THE\r\nFIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  IN THE LONGER-TERM...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WITH SOME MODELS\r\nTAKING DEBBY WEST AND NORTH OF ITS CURRENT POSITION AND OTHERS\r\nMOVING EAST OR NORTHEAST AND ULTIMATELY INTO THE ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nLATTER SCENARIO ASSUMES THAT DEBBY WILL EVENTUALLY BE INFLUENCED BY\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS SCENARIO SEEMS MORE LIKELY SINCE IT IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE\r\nGFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.  REGARDLESS OF WHICH SCENARIO PLAYS\r\nOUT...THE CYCLONE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE ANYTIME SOON. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 28.6N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 28.8N  85.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 28.9N  85.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 29.0N  85.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 29.2N  85.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 29.4N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 29.7N  85.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/0600Z 30.2N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-06-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1000 AM CDT MON JUN 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nDEBBY FOR OVER 12 HOURS. WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS PRIMARILY\r\nLOCATED IN A FRAGMENTED BAND WELL EAST OF THE CENTER...AND\r\nSOUNDINGS ALONG THE GULF COAST INDICATE THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR IS AFFECTING THE STORM. IN ADDITION...THE SLOW\r\nMOVEMENT OF DEBBY HAS INDUCED OCEANIC UPWELLING AND COOLING\r\nUNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE AND MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE OBSERVED\r\nWEAKENING. LATEST DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KT. WITH DRY AIR LURKING AND\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...\r\nSIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE PRIOR TO LANDFALL\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN LINE\r\nWITH CURRENT TRENDS AND THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES HAVE SHOWN LITTLE OVERALL MOVEMENT OVER\r\nTHE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS... ALTHOUGH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD SHORT-TERM MOTION.\r\nAT THE MOMENT...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE CURRENT MOTION REPRESENTS\r\nA MEANDERING OR A MORE DECIDED MOTION. ON THE LARGE SCALE...DEBBY\r\nIS TRAPPED IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING IN BETWEEN A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS AND ONE OVER THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH\r\nOFFSHORE THE EASTERN SEABOARD CAUSING DEBBY TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE CENTER EMERGING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY DAY 5. THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS BEGIN\r\nTO LIFT OUT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH\r\nCOULD LEAVE DEBBY IN WEAK STEERING CURRENT AGAIN AFTER THAT TIME.\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY... THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT...WITH ONLY THE UKMET NOW SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION. IN\r\nADDITION...THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AN EASTWARD MOTION\r\nBY ABOUT A 3 TO 1 RATIO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REPRESENTS A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT TERM.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 28.6N  85.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 28.8N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 28.9N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 29.0N  84.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 29.2N  84.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 29.5N  83.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 29.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/1200Z 29.5N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-06-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n400 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEBBY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN\r\nORGANIZATION TODAY. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE HARDER TO\r\nLOCATE...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND A\r\nMEAN CENTER. THERE HAD BEEN VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE EITHER...BUT A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER LAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. EARLIER\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT AT 850MB...\r\nWITH MAXIMUM SFMR VALUES AROUND 40 KT. GIVEN THESE DATA AND THE\r\nLACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES TO THE CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 40 KT.  THE CURRENT STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE\r\nIN WESTERLY SHEAR AND ADDITIONAL DRY AIR POSSIBLY WRAPPING INTO THE\r\nSTORM CIRCULATION...WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE MUCH SHORT-TERM\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION OF DEBBY...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NO\r\nAPPRECIABLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. MARGINALLY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nA SMOOTHING OF RECENT AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A SLOW\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF 040/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW DEBBY\r\nCONTINUING ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD COURSE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH OFFSHORE OF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST. AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT\r\nOUT IN 2-3 DAYS...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BE LEFT BEHIND\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nOVERALL ON AN EASTWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES REMAIN. THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND SHOWS DEBBY TAKING FIVE DAYS TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE\r\nFLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF IS NOW ONE OF THE\r\nFASTEST MODELS TO THE EAST. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT\r\nAS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN DEFERENCE TO CONTINUITY AND\r\nTHE GFS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 29.3N  85.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 29.4N  84.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 29.5N  84.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 29.6N  84.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 29.7N  83.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 29.8N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 29.8N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 30.0N  79.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1000 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER AN INTENSE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD SHIELD IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SLOWLY PULLING AWAY FROM CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR. THE HIGHEST RELIABLE SFMR WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS EVENING HAS BEEN 42 KT TO THE WEST AND\r\nWELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG WITH 59-KT AND 56-KT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH THE TALLAHASSEE DOPPLER\r\nWEATHER RADAR HAS BEEN INDICATING LARGE WINDS OF 60-65 VELOCITIES\r\nBETWEEN 2000 AND 6500 FT IN SOME RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION...THOSE\r\nCONDITIONS HAVE BEEN OVER LAND. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nWILL REMAIN AT 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OR 040/02 KT\r\nOVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK REASONING. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 18Z AND 00Z INDICATE \r\nDEBBY REMAINS TRAPPED IN A BLOCKING RIDGE PATTERN THAT EXTENDS\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO\r\nAND WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RESULTANT WEAK STEERING FLOW SHOULD KEEP\r\nDEBBY MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT LESS THAN 5 KT\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...DEBBY WILL LIKELY REMAIN\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 DAYS\r\nBEFORE IT CREEPS SLOWLY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA IN DAYS 3-4. IN THE\r\nABSENCE OF ANY LARGE-SCALE STEERING FLOW...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nDEBBY WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY TO NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK THROUGH\r\nDAY 3...AND IS THEN A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CLOSE\r\nTO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE PRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN AND\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 20-25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD\r\nINHIBIT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE DEBBY REMAINS OVER WATER.\r\nTHE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...BUT\r\nDEBBY WILL BE OVER OR INTERACTING WITH LAND AT DAYS 3 AND 4...SO\r\nTHAT WILL PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE\r\nIMPROVING SHEAR CONDITIONS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...DEBBY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE MOVING OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULFSTREAM...WHICH MAY\r\nALLOW FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER HAVING WEAKENED\r\nOVER LAND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 29.2N  85.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 29.3N  84.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 29.4N  84.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 29.5N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 29.6N  83.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 29.8N  82.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 30.1N  80.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  01/0000Z 30.8N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012\r\n \r\nDEBBY REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...I.E.\r\nDISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IN SPITE OF ITS\r\nDISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...OBSERVATIONS FROM A C-MAN STATION NEAR\r\nAPALACHICOLA AND AN ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 40 KT.  GIVEN THE MARGINAL\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL THE CENTER\r\nMOVES OVER LAND.  DEBBY IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN IF AND WHEN IT MOVES\r\nOVER LAND AND...BASED ON THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST...IT COULD BECOME A\r\nDEPRESSION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nEMERGE OVER THE ATLANTIC...SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME RANGE IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE\r\nPOTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF THE GULF STREAM.\r\n \r\nSURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT DEBBY HAS\r\nTURNED TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 090/3...AS THE STORM IS APPARENTLY BEGINNING TO RESPOND\r\nTO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.   SOME OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE TYPICALLY\r\nBEST-PERFORMING GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...ARE NOW TAKING DEBBY\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE TRACK FORECASTS FROM THESE TWO\r\nMODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO RATHER CLOSE AGREEMENT.  THE U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE GLOBAL MODEL IS BY THE FAR THE FASTEST AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nNEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES IN 4 DAYS OR LESS.  WHEREAS THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC...THE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUPPORTS A FASTER TRACK ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTIONS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 29.0N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 29.0N  84.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 29.0N  83.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 29.1N  83.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 29.3N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 29.9N  80.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 30.5N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 31.5N  76.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF DEBBY\r\nAGAIN...WITH THE NEAREST SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. AN\r\nAMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES IS RESPONSIBLE FOR\r\nAN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 KT...WELL PREDICTED EARLIER\r\nBY DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE CLOUD LINES IN THE CYCLONE CORE ARE NOT\r\nWELL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY ELONGATED\r\nFROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT DEBBY IS\r\nWEAKENING...WITH PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT AT 850MB AND\r\nMAXIMUM BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 30 KT. A\r\nDROPSONDE ABOUT 80 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SURFACE\r\nWINDS OF 33 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND CIRCULATION\r\nOF DEBBY...WITH ADDITIONAL DRY AIR FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO ADVECT\r\nTOWARD THE STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTO A DEPRESSION WHILE THE CENTER MOVES ACROSS FLORIDA...IF NOT\r\nBEFORE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LESSENING OF THE SHEAR AND\r\nA NEW SUPPLY OF WARM WATER COULD ALLOW DEBBY TO RESTRENGTHEN.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT DEBBY IS DRIFTING\r\nEASTWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 090/03.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nDIGGING ALONG 70W WILL HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO CARRY DEBBY ACROSS\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH LIFTS OUT IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS...AN ABSENCE\r\nOF RIDGING ACROSS THIS REGION MAKES DEBBY SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW...AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ARE IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER MOTION.  THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT STILL SLOWER THAN THE BULK OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 28.9N  84.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 28.9N  83.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 29.1N  82.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 29.3N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 29.6N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 30.3N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 31.5N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 33.5N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Debby","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-06-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE MISSION THAT ENDED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MEASURED\r\nBIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED\r\nON THOSE DATA...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THERE ARE STILL A FEW SPOTS OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAINING IN BANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. IN THE FACE OF STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...DEBBY IS GENERATING ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...AND HAS LESS THAN A\r\nFULLY TROPICAL APPEARANCE. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO BEING OVERTAKEN BY A\r\nLARGE REGION OF DRY AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND GULF OF\r\nMEXICO. THE PASSAGE OF DEBBY OVER LAND...IN ADDITION TO THE\r\nNEGATIVE FACTORS CITED ABOVE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE DEBBY TO WEAKEN TO\r\nA DEPRESSION WITHIN 12 HOURS. AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC...SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER SHEAR AND WARMER WATERS\r\nFAVOR SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE\r\nAND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nAS ADVERTISED BY DYNAMICAL MODELS...DEBBY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/05. THE\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS RELATED TO AN INCREASING WESTERLY MID-\r\nTO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UNUSUALLY DEEP\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE GFS\r\nBRIEFLY SLOWS THE CYCLONE MOTION IN THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS OF THE\r\nFORECAST...AND PERHAPS AS A RESULT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH\r\nFAILS TO CAPTURE DEBBY AS STRONGLY AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET.\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOT AS\r\nQUICK AS THE ECMWF/UKMET/MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BOTH BECAUSE OF\r\nCONTINUITY AND RESPECT FOR THE GFS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 29.5N  83.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 29.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 29.7N  81.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 30.0N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 30.3N  77.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 31.4N  74.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 33.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 36.6N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-06-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF DEBBY MADE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND\r\nREGION AT AROUND 2100 UTC.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CENTER HAS TURNED\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A GUST FRONT FROM\r\nTHE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST AND A MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTER\r\nOVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA.  THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME\r\nELONGATED WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE RISING TO AROUND 1000 MB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON COASTAL OBSERVATIONS AND THE\r\nCHANCE THAT SOME STRONGER WINDS MAY EXIST OVER THE WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 125/6.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF DEBBY...AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDS\r\nFROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC.  WHILE\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THESE FEATURES TO WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR...THEY AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WESTERLY STEERING\r\nFLOW TO ALLOW THE CENTER TO CROSS FLORIDA AND REACH THE ATLANTIC\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  THE MODELS DIVERGE AFTER THAT.  THE\r\nNOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE CENTER STALLING OFF THE U. S.\r\nCOAST...WHILE THE GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...GFDL...AND HWRF MOVE IT\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC AT VARYING SPEEDS.  THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THE LATTER SCENARIO.  THE NEW FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION...AND IS A BIT FASTER.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF\r\nTHE CENTER RE-FORMS WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA.\r\n\r\nDEBBY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY\r\nAIR ENTRAINMENT...AND LAND INTERACTION.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD\r\nPERSIST UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES THE ATLANTIC.  IN 36-48 HR...THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO INTERACT\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD REDUCE THE SHEAR AND PROVIDE\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.  HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR\r\nSHOULD STILL BE NEAR DEBBY AT THAT TIME...WHICH COULD PREVENT THE\r\nMORE FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FROM STRENGTHENING THE SYSTEM.  THUS...THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 29.0N  82.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 29.3N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 29.7N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 30.3N  77.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 30.7N  75.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 32.0N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 39.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF DEBBY IS INCREASINGLY BECOMING ELONGATED. THE CENTER\r\nIS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION...BUT THE AREA\r\nOF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 075\r\nDEGREES AT 9 KNOTS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS IN A FRONTAL-TYPE BAND EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM\r\nFLORIDA ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL\r\nPROBABLY 30 KNOTS IN A FEW SQUALLS MAINLY OVER WATER. \r\n\r\nNONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH...AND IN FACT...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST\r\nWEAKENING IN THE 00 UTC RUN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS DEBBY AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AND ALLOWS SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nDEBBY IS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR\r\nNORTHEAST AS INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 29.6N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 30.0N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 30.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 31.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 32.0N  70.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 35.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 45.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Debby","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012\r\n \r\nDEBBY IS STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. OCCASIONAL\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER...BUT ARE\r\nIMMEDIATELY BEING PUSHED TO THE EAST BY STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. IN\r\nFACT...AT 12Z...THE CONVECTION WAS TOO DISORGANIZED TO WARRANT A\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nDISTORTED...WITH AN ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST APPEARANCE. A\r\nLOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS ALSO IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE BUT HAS\r\nNOT YET BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BUOY REPORTS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER SHOW 1-MINUTE WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTHAT STRONGER WINDS ARE OCCURING IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nDEBBY MOVED INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND 8Z. USING THESE DATA\r\nSOURCES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/09. ALTHOUGH A DEEP\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING\r\nOUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW IT HAVING\r\nSUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO DRAW DEBBY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. HAVING\r\nGAINED ENOUGH LATITUDE...STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD\r\nTHEN CAUSE DEBBY TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...BUT THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DEBBY BEING\r\nLEFT BEHIND BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH. ASSUMING THAT DEBBY\r\nREMAINS A DISTINCT ENTITY...THE FORMER CAMP OF MODELS FAVORS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND SO DOES THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE A RELATIVE DECREASE IN THE SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS...DEBBY WILL REMAIN SURROUNDED BY A LARGE\r\nPOOL OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EVEN\r\nAFTER THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD TEMPER\r\nANY SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE SHIPS/LGEM GENERALLY AGREE\r\nWITH THIS IDEA...NO LONGER SHOWING MUCH STRENGTHENING. IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFS SHOWS DEBBY LOSING ORGANIZATION DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. IN\r\nTHE FACE OF THESE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT DEBBY WILL DISSIPATE SOON.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 29.7N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 30.1N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 30.5N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 31.3N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 32.3N  69.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 35.5N  65.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 40.0N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 46.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Debby","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR CONTINUE TO TAKE A TOLL ON DEBBY.\r\nASCAT AMBIGUITY VECTORS FROM A 1527 UTC OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED TO THE POINT THAT IT IS\r\nNOW A SHARP TROUGH AXIS WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED CENTER. IN\r\nADDITION...THE SYSTEM LACKS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIABLE. ON THIS BASIS...DEBBY IS NOW DESIGNATED AS A POST-\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS HAD UNCONTAMINATED WINDS\r\nTO 32 KT...AND NOAA BUOY 41010 HAD 1-MINUTE WINDS AS HIGH AS 31 KT.\r\nIT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING IN THE REMAINING\r\nCONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...SO INTENSITY OF THE\r\nSYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT.\r\n \r\nBASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n095/11...ALTHOUGH THIS IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE PRECISELY DUE TO\r\nTHE POOR DEFINITION OF THE CENTER. DEBBY SHOULD BE STEERED BY THE\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP TROUGH COVERING THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC...EVEN AS THIS WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. ONCE\r\nREACHING A HIGHER LATITUDE...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO FEEL THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW AND ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO BUT STILL DIFFER ON\r\nTHE TIMING ASPECTS OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS IS SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE ECMWF/UKMET SINCE ITS MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL HEADING KEEPS\r\nIT EQUATORWARD OF THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW. THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SLOWED A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT IS\r\nESSENTIALLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A RELATIVE DECREASE IN THE SHEAR\r\nOVER DEBBY AS IT TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO. ALTHOUGH AN ABUNDANCE OF VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THIS\r\nREGION AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD BE FACTORS\r\nTHAT PREVENT DEBBY FROM REGENERATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS TO BE A POSSIBILITY. THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC FORECAST CARRIES DEBBY AS A POST- TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THOUGH DEBBY COULD REACQUIRE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AT SOME POINT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 29.5N  78.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 29.4N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 29.7N  73.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 30.7N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 32.1N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 35.7N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 40.0N  59.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  02/1800Z 46.0N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012\r\n \r\nDURING THE DAY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS PULSED A BIT...AND IS SOMEWHAT LACKING OVER THE NORTHERN PART\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM HAS NOW ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE IS\r\nALWAYS A CHALLENGE...AND IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IN THIS CASE.\r\nMODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION...IS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THUS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATER\r\nON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES.  OUR BEST TWO\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE AT ODDS AS TO HOW THE SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  THE GFS FORECASTS THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT TO BECOME QUITE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHEREAS THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE SYSTEM\r\nDEGENERATING INTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARD TO THE GFS...BUT TIME WILL TELL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 285/16.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDEPICT A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE\r\nSAME SPEED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  A WEAKNESS OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO COULD CAUSE SOME SLOWING AND BIT OF A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 12.2N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 12.7N  51.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 13.3N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 13.8N  57.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 14.4N  60.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 15.5N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 16.5N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 17.5N  78.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 01 2012\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS WANED. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR CONVECTION \r\nTO FLUCTUATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK AND DEVELOPING TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES. EROSION OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS ALSO LIKELY DUE\r\nTO THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT\r\nAS NOTED IN VARIOUS WATER VAPOR PRODUCTS OVER THE PAST 8 HOURS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.2/32 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/16 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nIN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD....WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nDEPRESSION MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH\r\n120 H. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE\r\nTO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFDL MODEL TRACK THAT IS CONSIDERED TO BE AN\r\nOUTLIER DUE TO IT DEPICTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAN FORECAST.\r\n\r\nONCE THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT PROCESS ABATES...\r\nCONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER SINCE THE SYSTEM STILL\r\nHAS A VERY ROBUST CIRCULATION AS NOTED IN RECENT SSMI AND AMSU\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. HOWEVER...VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ARE\r\nONLY EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO\r\nOCCUR OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER\r\nTHE WARMER CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 12.6N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 13.0N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 13.6N  56.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 14.2N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 14.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 15.8N  68.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 16.8N  74.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 17.8N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS GENERALLY\r\nDIMINISHED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW\r\nCONFINED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED TO 1.5 AND 1.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROPICAL WAVE\r\nLATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES.  IF THIS IS\r\nTHE CASE...THEN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY.\r\n \r\nLATEST FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 280/18.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE INCREASES...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE CYCLONE RESPONDS TO A WEAKNESS TO THE\r\nNORTH.  THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER RIDGE AND MAINTAIN A\r\nWESTWARD HEADING.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN\r\nTO THE MORE RELIABLE ECMWF/GFS OUTPUT ON DAYS 4-5.\r\n \r\nUW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES INDICATE 20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH...AFFECTING THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUATION OF THIS SHEAR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ASSUMING THE\r\nSYSTEM SURVIVES...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nOVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IN 4-5 DAYS...WHERE INTENSIFICATION COULD\r\nOCCUR. GIVEN THE CURRENT TREND...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nREDUCED...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS LINE\r\nWITH THE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 12.8N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 13.3N  55.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 13.7N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 14.0N  61.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 14.6N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 15.7N  71.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 16.7N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 18.0N  80.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 02 2012\r\n\r\nAFTER LOOKING VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING SHOWS A MARGINALLY BETTER STRUCTURE WITH EVIDENCE OF\r\nINCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING.  NOAA BUOY 41040...TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER...REPORTED 31 KT WINDS.  THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT\r\nPENDING THE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE...SCHEDULED FOR 1800 UTC.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT IN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO AND THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER THE 1200\r\nUTC SOUNDING FROM TRINIDAD SHOWED A LOW-TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY JET\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE LATITUDE OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS COULD BE\r\nAN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY SWIFT 17 KT.  A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD MAINTAIN A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS PATTERN IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nMAINLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED.  THIS IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 13.0N  54.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 13.4N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 13.8N  60.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 14.1N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 14.7N  66.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 15.7N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 17.0N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 18.5N  82.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE\r\nIS NOT THAT WELL ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BECOME MUCH\r\nMORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION UNTIL ERNESTO REACHES THE\r\nWESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST\r\nSHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST HWRF MODEL PREDICTION.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DEPICT A STRONG CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER LOCATION IS A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED\r\nTO BE 270/19.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST\r\nATLANTIC THAT HAS BEEN DRIVING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS ERNESTO NEARS A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS NEAR THE LATEST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SOMEWHAT NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF\r\nFORECAST TRACK.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 12.8N  56.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 13.0N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 13.2N  62.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 13.6N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 14.2N  68.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 15.5N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 17.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 18.5N  83.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 02 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THESE DATA\r\nALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED OR DEVELOPED\r\nFARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/19 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON RADAR\r\nDATA AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS OVER THE PAST 9 HOURS. A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER AND LESSER\r\nANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AND STEER ERNESTO ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. BY\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP\r\nACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nDECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. THERE IS A LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS\r\nTAKING ERNESTO INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...WHILE THE UKMET AND GFDL\r\nMODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE TO WESTERN CUBA BY 120 HOURS. THE REST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK... MAINLY DUE\r\nTO THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN...WHICH HAS SHOWN VERY LITTLE CROSS-TRACK\r\nVARIATION OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE RATHER FAST FORWARD SPEED COMBINED WITH SOME MODERATE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED\r\nSHIPS MODEL INDICATES THE SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT\r\nAND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF WARMER SSTS...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND\r\nDECREASING SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO\r\nOCCUR. IN FACT...IF ERNESTO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FORECAST TRACK... \r\nMORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE LGEM AND STATISTICAL HFIP EXPERIMENTAL INTENSITY\r\nMODELS... WHICH MAKE ERNESTO A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 120 HOURS WHEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE IN IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS.\r\nHOWEVER... THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS AND UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nWHETHER ERNESTO WILL BE AFFECTED BY LAND REQUIRES THAT THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAIN CONSERVATIVE AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 13.4N  58.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 13.7N  61.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 14.0N  64.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 14.4N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 15.0N  70.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 16.3N  76.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 17.9N  81.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 19.7N  84.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012\r\n \r\nERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nAPART FROM A COUPLE OF BRIEF CONVECTIVE BURSTS...CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nWARMED AND SHRUNK AROUND THE CENTER OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...DATA\r\nFROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT\r\nWINDS ARE NOT MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE LACKLUSTER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT...AND THAT COULD BE SOMEWHAT GENEROUS\r\nGIVEN THAT THE HIGHEST 850-MB WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE AROUND\r\n45 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE RAPID WESTWARD MOTION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS RESULTING IN\r\nDEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT AS ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL. GIVEN THIS...AND THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR SEEN IN UPSTREAM\r\nSOUNDINGS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nEXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND THAT TIME...CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR\r\nDECREASES WHILE ERNESTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES OF THE CYCLONE AND THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR LAND INTERACTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REMAIN\r\nCONSERVATIVE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND\r\nTHE IV15 CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES THE HFIP GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/21...AS ERNESTO IS BEING STEERED\r\nRAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THIS\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD\r\nMOTION OF THE CYCLONE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW A\r\nWEAKNESS DEVELOPING IN THE RIDGE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES\r\nINTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOWER\r\nWEST-NORTHWARD MOTION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE CONTINUES TO\r\nBE CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...WITH\r\nTHE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD AND THE STRONGER\r\nGFDL TURNING ERNESTO MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. DUE TO THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nLARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA/TV15 MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nGIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON THE\r\nFUTURE INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD IS LOWER THAN USUAL. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 13.5N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 14.0N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 14.4N  66.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 14.9N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 15.6N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 17.0N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 18.5N  82.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 20.5N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 03 2012\r\n \r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM MARTINIQUE SHOWED\r\nTHE SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVED WESTWARD JUST\r\nSOUTH OF OR OVER ST. LUCIA EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE\r\nAIRCRAFT AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  FAST-MOVING TROPICAL CYCLONES TYPICALLY DO NOT STRENGTHEN\r\nMUCH AND IN FACT...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KNOTS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THE TIME ERNESTO\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN. THE COMBINATION OF LOW\r\nSHEAR AND HIGH UPPER-OCEAN HEAT CONTENT IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO\r\nWILL BE RACING WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...TRACK MODELS DIVERGE\r\nCONSIDERABLY AND SOME MODELS KEEP ERNESTO ON A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTRACK...WHILE ANOTHER GROUP TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...DEPENDING UPON HOW THE MODELS DEPICT THE STRENGTH OF\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ERNESTO\r\nWILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN 4 TO 5\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 13.7N  62.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 13.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 14.4N  68.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 15.0N  71.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 15.5N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 17.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 18.5N  83.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 20.5N  87.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND CENTRAL CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS STILL APPARENT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT PENDING\r\nTHE ARRIVAL OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE THIS EVENING.  WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH\r\nCOULD IMPEDE STRENGTHENING.  THERE REMAINS A LARGE DIVERGENCE IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BASICALLY\r\nDISSIPATING THE SYSTEM AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS SHOWING ERNESTO\r\nBECOMING A HURRICANE IN A COUPLE DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nPREDICTION.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST.\r\n\r\nERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 275/18.   THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAST EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING ERNESTO TO \r\nSLOW DOWN AND GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE.  HOWEVER...TRACK MODELS HAVE\r\nA LARGE SPREAD IN THE LONG TERM WITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE\r\nWEST...AND LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE NORMALLY RELIABLE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS...THESE MODELS ARE SHOWING A RATHER WEAK SYSTEM IN\r\nA FEW DAYS...AND ARE NOT THOUGHT TO BE THE MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN\r\nTHIS CASE.  \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 13.9N  64.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 14.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 14.7N  69.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 15.3N  73.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 15.9N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 17.0N  81.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 19.0N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 21.0N  88.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND AN ABBREVIATED HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN INTENSIFICATION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS\r\nBASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA.  ANALYSIS FROM\r\nCIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS DECREASING OVER ERNESTO...AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/16...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.  A\r\nSTRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES\r\nLOWER CONFIDENCE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEVELOPING MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES FROM 72-120 HR...\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS.  THE GFDL...\r\nUKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS RESPOND TO THIS BY FORECASTING ERNESTO TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST ERNESTO\r\nTO BE TOO FAR SOUTH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...AND THUS SHOW THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OR\r\nCENTRAL AMERICA.  BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ERNESTO WILL BE FAR\r\nENOUGH NORTH AND STRONG ENOUGH TO RESPOND TO THE WEAKNESS...THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY DIVERGENT.  THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH THE\r\nLGEM CALLING FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 96 HR.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS OFFER A DISSENTING VIEW...WITH THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF PREDICTING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL ABOUT 96 HR.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE ECMWF FORECASTS ERNESTO TO REMAIN VERY WEAK.  IT IS\r\nUNCLEAR WHAT ARE THE NEGATIVE FACTORS THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nSEEING...SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AFTER 24 HR AND\r\nTHE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...IT IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE DIVERGENT GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND ON\r\nSATURDAY. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 13.9N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 14.2N  67.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 14.7N  71.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 15.4N  74.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 16.1N  77.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 17.5N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 19.5N  85.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 22.0N  88.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA \r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TIME OF AMSU PASS IN FIRST PARAGRAPH\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING\r\nOVERNIGHT. THE COVERAGE OF COLD TOPS HAS INCREASED WHILE CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE APPARENT AND THE OUTFLOW HAS\r\nEXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. IN ADDITION...AN AMSU PASS\r\nFROM 0549 UTC SHOWED A LITTLE BETTER STRUCTURE IN THE INNER CORE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSUGGEST AT LEAST STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. HOWEVER...THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nCONTINUES. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW A FASTER PACE OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION...WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING AT A\r\nMUCH SLOWER RATE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD AND SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN\r\n36 HOURS...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...THE GFDL SHOWS MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN\r\nEARLIER RUNS...BUT THE HWRF AND MUCH OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE REMAIN\r\nWEAKER. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD SLIGHTLY...AND IS CLOSE TO THE IV15 CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/16 AS ERNESTO IS SITUATED SOUTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS IN SHOWING A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION\r\nAS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THROUGH THIS\r\nTIME THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE THIS CYCLE IS A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH NOW JOINS THE GFS AND ECMWF IN SHOWING THAT ERNESTO\r\nWILL REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN\r\n4 TO 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND SEVERAL OF THE HFIP\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ERNESTO GAINING MORE LATITUDE IN THE SECOND\r\nHALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5...BUT STILL LIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN JAMAICA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO...AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nTHAT ISLAND LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 14.1N  67.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 14.5N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 15.1N  73.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 15.7N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 16.3N  79.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 17.5N  83.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 19.5N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 21.5N  90.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE EXCELLENT PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE WITH CYCLONICALLY\r\nCURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW...DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT\r\nERNESTO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED. IN FACT...THE WINDS\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT AND THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1008 MB.  I\r\nDO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS FOR THE CURRENT WEAKENING BUT I HAVE NO\r\nREASON TO FORECAST ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EITHER. THE SHEAR IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...AND ERNESTO WILL\r\nMOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT CONTENT. GIVEN SUCH\r\nCONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN\r\nSINCE MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. SHIPS...LGEM AND THE GFDL\r\nFORECAST ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE THE HWRF EITHER\r\nFORECASTS NO CHANGE OR WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16\r\nKNOTS EMBEDDEED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS\r\nTRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND ERNESTO\r\nCOULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES.  BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF TURN\r\nERNESTO NORTHWARD...AND THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED\r\nTOWARD THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 14.4N  68.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 14.8N  71.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 15.5N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 15.7N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 16.5N  80.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 18.0N  84.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 19.5N  87.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 22.0N  90.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE EARLIER THIS MORNING FOUND A WEAKER\r\nCYCLONE...BUT DURING THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER AROUND\r\nNOON...THE PLANE REPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO\r\n1004 MB FROM 1008 MB...AND FOUND A BETTER DEFINED CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A\r\nCIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED WHICH IS NOT COMMON FOR A CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL\r\nCARIBBEAN. T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 AND 3.0 AT 1800 UTC...AND OBJECTIVE\r\nNUMBERS HAVE REACHED 4.3 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THE PAST HOUR.\r\nON THIS BASIS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD TO 50 KNOTS. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...\r\nTHE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS.\r\n \r\nAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...I DO NOT HAVE ANY REASONS TO\r\nFORECAST WEAKENING AS SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT...\r\nINCLUDING THE HWRF AND THE GFDL. THE SHEAR IS LOW AHEAD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND ERNESTO WILL MOVE OVER AN OCEAN WITH HIGHER HEAT\r\nCONTENT. GIVEN SUCH CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nERNESTO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...RESULTING\r\nIN ERNESTO TURNING MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSOLUTION OF MOST THE GLOBAL MODELS...BRINGING ERNESTO OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE NHC FORECAST DISREGARDS THE NORTHWARD TURN INDICATED BY\r\nTHE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 14.8N  70.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 15.2N  72.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 15.7N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 16.0N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 16.5N  81.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 19.5N  87.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 21.5N  90.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n \r\nDESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION...AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1007 MB.  SINCE THE PLANE HAS NOT YET FULLY\r\nSAMPLED THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE\r\nFOUND EARLIER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT.  HOWEVER...\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS ESTIMATE IS GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ACCELERATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SINCE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY...WITH A SHORT-TERM FORWARD SPEED OF OVER 20 KT.  A\r\nLONGER-TERM MOTION IS 285/19...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THE\r\nADVISORY.  THE REASON FOR THIS TRACK CHANGE IS UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO SHOULD RESUME A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER 24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  WHILE SOME SPREAD REMAINS...THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A\r\nREDUCED FORWARD SPEED AFTER 36 HR...MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA OF MEXICO BETWEEN 72-96 HR AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN OR\r\nSOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 24 HR DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT TIME TO LIE NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.  OVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nIT IS ALSO UNCLEAR WHY ERNESTO HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS\r\nLIGHT...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM.  ONE POSSIBLE\r\nCAUSE MIGHT BE DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT ERNESTO\r\nWILL NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN...WHILE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nFORECAST STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GIVEN\r\nTHE TRENDS DURING THE PAST 24 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A LOWER INTENSIFICATION RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH\r\nERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 48 HR.  GIVE THE DIVERGENT\r\nGUIDANCE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 15.4N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 15.8N  75.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 16.1N  78.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 16.3N  81.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 17.0N  82.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 18.5N  86.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 20.5N  89.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  10/0000Z 22.0N  92.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION INTO ERNESTO\r\nSHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER DISORGANIZED.\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE ROSE TO 1009 MB ON THE LAST FIX AND THE\r\nAIRCRAFT FOUND ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS THAN 5 KT NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER. THE PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 52 KT AND THE\r\nHIGHEST SFMR WINDS WERE 40 TO 45 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT. WHILE THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS DEGRADED\r\nOVER THE PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. RAOB DATA FROM CURACAO...MODEL\r\nANALYSES AND AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW A TONGUE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER TO\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERE IMPINGING ON ERNESTO FROM THE SOUTH. THIS DRY AIR \r\nIN COMBINATION WITH SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR ANALYZED BY UW-CIMSS MAY\r\nBE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE LAST DAY\r\nOR SO. DESPITE OTHERWISE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM STILL SHOW INTENSIFICATION...BUT AT A\r\nSLOWER RATE COMPARED TO THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS. GIVEN THESE\r\nTRENDS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE REACHING LAND...WITH SOME RESTRENGTHENING POSSIBLE\r\nAFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTER...SUCH AS IT IS...\r\nSHOWED THAT ERNESTO HAS ACCELERATED BACK TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 275/19. THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION RESULTS\r\nIN A SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK OF ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE LEFT...\r\nOR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. APART FROM THIS ADJUSTMENT...\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST REASONING. ERNESTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THEN SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY 48 HOURS AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD AS THE WEAKNESS PERSISTS OVER THE GULF. THE GFS...ECMWF...\r\nAND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...SHOWING LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND A TRACK CLOSER TO\r\nTHE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE CENTRAL YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA. THE GFDL...UKMET AND SOME OF THE HFIP MODELS...ARE\r\nFARTHER NORTH AND TAKE THE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN AND\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THROUGH 72 HOURS THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE\r\nUSUALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 15.1N  74.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 15.3N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 15.6N  80.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 16.0N  82.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 16.6N  83.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 18.5N  87.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 20.5N  91.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 21.6N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING\r\nERNESTO THIS MORNING AND FOUND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LESS\r\nWELL-DEFINED THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY.  ALSO...VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF MOST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL\r\nANALYSES INDICATE DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR WEST AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS HAS PROBABLY BEEN DISRUPTING THE\r\nSYSTEM.  ASSUMING THAT ERNESTO IS ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC FACTOR...SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED SLOWS IN A DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT CONTINUES TO BE BELOW THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE LATTER HAS BEEN\r\nSHOWING SOMEWHAT OF A HIGH BIAS FOR THIS SYSTEM.  THE GFS MODEL\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW NO STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY TOWARD THE WEST...AT A FORWARD\r\nSPEED OF AT LEAST 20 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN IN A DAY OR\r\nTWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD MOTION TO DECELERATE.  MOST OF\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOWS A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR SO.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE A\r\nLITTLE MORE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN A FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nGFDL AND U.K. MET MODEL FORECASTS SHOW A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ENOUGH TO\r\nCAUSE A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD TURN.  THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF RUNS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFS FORECAST BARELY BRINGS\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO THE GULF.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 15.0N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 15.0N  79.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 15.4N  81.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 15.9N  83.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 16.5N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 18.0N  89.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 20.0N  92.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  96.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nASIDE FROM A SMALL BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS JUST EAST AND SOUTHEAST \r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS IN\r\nDISORGANIZED PATCHES WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nDRY AIR IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS HAS BEEN DISRUPTING THE\r\nSTORM...ALONG WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE ABATING RECENTLY AND...ASSUMING\r\nTHAT ERNESTO WILL BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS...SOME STRENGTHENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A DAY \r\nOR SO. ONCE AGAIN...THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT ORGANIZATION AND APPEARANCE OF THE STORM...THIS SEEMS\r\nDUBIOUS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nHFIP INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE ANTICIPATED DECELERATION IS FINALLY OCCURRING AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/17. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO IS\r\nPREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A TROUGH DIPS OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A FURTHER\r\nREDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO\r\nRESULT IN ERNESTO TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ITS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...AS WELL AS THE LATEST ECMWF...ARE SOUTH OF THIS\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 15.3N  78.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 15.5N  80.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 16.0N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 16.7N  84.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 17.5N  86.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 19.0N  90.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 20.5N  94.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 21.5N  97.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -85C HAS\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO A STRENGTHENING\r\nTREND DESPITE THE SURFACE PRESSURE HAVING DECREASED TO ABOUT 1003\r\nMB. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 42 KT AND\r\nTHE HIGHEST ADJUSTED-SFMR SURFACE WIND HAS BEEN AROUND 44 KT. BASED\r\nON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45\r\nKT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO DECELERATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW 270/13 KT. THE DECOUPLED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX HAS\r\nDISPLACED THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nVORTEX...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT JOG TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND ERNESTO\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN 12-24 HOURS...AND\r\nCONTINUE THAT MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DONE A SUPERB JOB IN FORECASTING THE\r\nRECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OWING TO THE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR CREATED BY THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX BEING DISPLACED\r\nMORE THAN 60 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THOSE MODELS\r\nARE ALSO FORECASTING THE LOW-LEVEL AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS TO RE-COUPLE AND BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED AGAIN IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. UNTIL THAT TIME...HOWEVER...ERNESTO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN LITTLE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 15.0N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 15.3N  81.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 16.1N  83.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 17.1N  85.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 17.9N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 19.0N  91.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 20.0N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  11/0000Z 20.5N  98.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BURST NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION OF ERNESTO. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL\r\nANALYSIS FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE VORTEX CONTINUES TO BE TILTED\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...AND THIS STRUCTURE SHOULD ONLY ALLOW\r\nFOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS STILL SHOW ERNESTO APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 TO\r\n48 HOURS...AND THAT IS POSSIBLE EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT SHOWN\r\nEXPLICITLY IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATER IN THE PERIOD SOME\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF TH\r\nDECAY SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT USING\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THEREFORE THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION\r\nNEAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nSLOWED FURTHER...WITH A LONG-TERM ESTIMATE OF 275/10. THE OVERALL\r\nSYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS\r\nERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nAS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AS THE CENTER OF ERNESTO MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA AND EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT TIME A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS SHOWN BY MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE. OVERALL THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nSOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION BUT IS STILL A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS\r\nHAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND PORTIONS OF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 15.1N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 15.4N  82.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 16.2N  84.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 17.1N  86.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 17.7N  88.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 18.7N  92.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n120H  11/0600Z 19.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 06 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS\r\nMORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION.  IT\r\nIS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION\r\nOF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON\r\nRAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED\r\nAND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS\r\nIN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nHWRF MODEL.\r\n \r\nWITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE\r\nUNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS\r\nWEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE\r\nWILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 15.8N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 16.2N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 16.8N  84.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 17.5N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 18.2N  88.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 19.0N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 19.0N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 19.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER THE SUDDEN STRENGTHENING EPISODE THAT OCCURRED THIS\r\nMORNING...THE LAST COUPLE OF CENTER PENETRATIONS BY THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS INDICATED THAT THE INTENSITY HAS LEVELED OFF.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS STOPPED FALLING...FOR NOW...AND THE INTENSITY OF THE\r\nCORE CONVECTION...AS MEASURED BY CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND\r\nLIGHTNING DATA...HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED\r\nIS KEPT AT 55 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LAST SFMR\r\nOBSERVATIONS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME FAIRLY WELL DEFINED AS COMPARED TO\r\nTHE LAST FEW DAYS.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED\r\nFURTHER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ERNESTO IS IN A WEAK SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE\r\nREACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THAT IS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nNUMERICAL INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nAFTER THE EARLIER REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THERE IS MORE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...WHICH IS NOW 295/10. \r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A 500 MB TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES...TO THE NORTH OF A RATHER WEAK RIDGE\r\nOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE GLOBAL MODELS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS\r\nAND THE ECMWF...CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL NOT BE\r\nWEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE VERY FAR NORTH OVER THE GULF. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS IS\r\nALSO SIMILAR TO THE GFS...AND A LITTLE NORTH OF THE NEW ECMWF\r\nTRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 16.2N  81.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 16.9N  83.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 18.7N  87.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 19.2N  90.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 19.5N  94.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 19.5N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 19.0N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 06 2012\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION OF ERNESTO\r\nHAS TAKEN A BEATING DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. ONLY A\r\nSMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EXISTS OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE\r\nTHE REST OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING MORE THAN 100\r\nNMI NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE\r\nCONVECTIVE EROSION...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND\r\nTHAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER TIGHT WITH A RADIUS\r\nOF 12-15 NMI. THE STRONGEST 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED THUS\r\nFAR HAS BEEN 61 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST\r\nRAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WIND MEASURED HAS BEEN 46 KT. GIVEN THAT\r\nTHE RECON FOUND A SURFACE PRESSURE OF ABOUT 994 MB...WHICH IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PRESSURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 55 KT UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS MISSION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT ERNESTO WILL MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 30\r\nHOURS NEAR THE COASTS OF NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN\r\nPENINSULA. AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS...A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT EXTENDS FROM TEXAS EASTWARD TO\r\nFLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE...BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n\r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...EXCEPT\r\nFOR THE LACK OF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN THOUGH RECON DATA\r\nINDICATE ERNESTO STILL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...DRY AIR\r\nTHAT HAS WRAPPED WELL INTO THE CENTER WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY\r\nSTRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION FROM BEING ABLE TO PERSIST NEAR THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS\r\nABOUT 1C WARMER AND INTO EVEN A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN ABOUT\r\n18-24 HOURS...THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST\r\nSOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND ERNESTO COULD STILL BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWS THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IV15 UNTIL LANDFALL...AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 17.0N  82.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 17.5N  84.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 18.3N  86.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 18.9N  89.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND OVER YUCATAN\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 19.3N  91.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 19.5N  94.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 19.4N  97.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/0000Z 19.2N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERNESTO AROUND\r\nTHE TIME OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT THAT DEPARTED THE\r\nCYCLONE A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO REPORTED PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 63 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT.  THESE DATA\r\nSUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH\r\nERNESTO STILL APPEARS TO BE HAVING SOME ISSUES WITH DRY AIR...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SSTS OF AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING AND\r\nBRINGS ERNESTO TO HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT.  THIS IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.  WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. \r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING WHEN THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...ALTHOUGH THIS PORTION OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE SINCE IT WILL DEPEND\r\nON HOW MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11.  ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN TURN WESTWARD TO THE \r\nSOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN BEFORE AND HAS ALSO SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INDICATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION AND HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED SOUTHWARD AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 17.5N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 18.2N  85.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 18.8N  88.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 19.3N  90.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 19.4N  92.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 19.3N  96.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 19.0N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ERNESTO THIS\r\nMORNING FOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 989 MB...BUT\r\nSO FAR THE SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS DO NOT SUPPORT ANYTHING\r\nHIGHER THAN 55 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nSUGGEST SOME EXPANSION OF THE INNER WIND FIELD...WHICH MAY\r\nPARTIALLY EXPLAIN THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING.  CIRRUS\r\nMOTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nOVER THE STORM.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD REMAIN IN A\r\nFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT UP TO LANDFALL...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ERNESTO BECOMING A HURRICANE\r\nPRIOR TO REACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE NHC WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE VARIOUS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nPREDICTIONS.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION CONTINUES\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 290/12.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST ARE REQUIRED.  ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nWESTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF A NARROW\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS SHOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND EVEN MOVES THE CYCLONE INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 18.1N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 18.6N  86.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 19.0N  89.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-08-07 18:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERNESTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n200 PM EDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY UPDATES THE CURRENT AND SHORT-TERM INTENSITY\r\nAND TRACK FORECAST.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nPEAK BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS OF 75 KT AND SURFACE-ADJUSTED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 66 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO FOUND THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THEREFORE THE\r\nINITIAL...12 H...AND 24 H FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTHWARD.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE WARNING NOW INCLUDES COZUMEL...AND THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY REPLACES THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1800Z 18.5N  85.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 19.0N  86.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 19.4N  89.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 19.4N  93.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n400 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n \r\nERNESTO HAS NOW BECOME A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH\r\nDISTINCT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES OVER ALL QUADRANTS OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND WELL-DEFINED CIRRUS-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KT PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...SCHEDULED FOR A 0000 UTC FIX.  GIVEN\r\nTHE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.  RESTRENGTHENING IS\r\nEXPECTED WHEN ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT RAPID\r\nWEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL IN\r\nMEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN.  ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT ERNESTO COULD REGENERATE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...\r\nTHAT UNUSUAL EVENT IS NOT BEING PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE AIRCRAFT AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES...THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...300/13...CONTINUES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH ERNESTO\r\nMOVING TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE CENTER HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nNORTH THAN EXPECTED...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A BIT\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE NEW ECMWF TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 18.8N  86.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 19.4N  88.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 19.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 19.8N  92.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 19.8N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 19.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n \r\nTECHNICAL ISSUES PREVENTED A RECON FLIGHT FROM INVESTIGATING ERNESTO\r\nTHIS EVENING. HOWEVER...IMAGERY FROM THE BELIZE RADAR INDICATE THE\r\nHURRICANE HAD A WELL-DEFINED 15-NMI DIAMETER EYE EARLIER THIS\r\nEVENING...BUT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT\r\nBASED ON AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nRADAR FIXES OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATE ERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nWESTWARD...OR 270/13 KT. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLANDS OF MEXICO...AND\r\nWILL MOVING ONSHORE THE SOUTHERN COAST OF YUCATAN SHORTLY. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON ERNESTO MOVING\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN YUCATAN TONIGHT AND\r\nWEDNESDAY...AND EMERGING OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY\r\nAFTERNOON OR EVENING. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN ERNESTO TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY 48 HOURS AS\r\nIT NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. AFTER THE SECOND LANDFALL OCCURS...\r\nERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE\r\nHIGH MOUNTAINS OF INTERIOR MEXICO BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nLITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS. ERNESTO SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT PASSES OVER YUCATAN\r\nTONIGHT AND TOMORROW...BUT THE INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL FRICTIONAL\r\nCONVERGENCE MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO TIGHTEN UP THE CIRCULATION BEFORE\r\nIT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 18-24 HOURS. THIS APPEARS TO\r\nBE ONE OF THE DRIVING MECHANISMS IN THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS...\r\nWHICH MAKE ERNESTO A HURRICANE AGAIN BY 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT AND EXPECTED FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ERNESTO.\r\nRAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER THE SECOND\r\nLANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO DUE TO VERY HIGH TERRAIN. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nFOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n\r\n34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON\r\nWIND REPORTS FROM THE LAST RECON FLIGHT AND NOAA BUOY 42056.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 18.7N  87.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...OVER BANCO CHINCHORRO\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 19.1N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 19.4N  91.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 19.4N  94.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 19.2N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 18.7N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n400 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n\r\nCORRECTED HEADER FROM HURRICANE TO TROPICAL STORM\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM BELIZE SHOW THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nEAST COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AROUND THE TIME OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL...AN AUTOMATED WEATHER\r\nSTATION ON BANCO CHINCHORRO ISLAND JUST OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 979.4 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE\r\nCENTER OF ERNESTO HAS MOVED WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN RADAR IMAGERY...AND THE LAST COUPLE\r\nOF GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THE CLOUD TOPS WARMING. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 60 KT.\r\n \r\nERNESTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT\r\nAPPROACHES ITS SECOND LANDFALL IN MEXICO IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE\r\nNHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.\r\n \r\nERNESTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  AFTER THE CENTER EMERGES\r\nOVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR ERNESTO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES FINAL\r\nLANDFALL IN MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WOULD KEEP MORE OF THE CIRCULATION OVER LAND AND\r\nCOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION.  AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nRAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED SEVERAL CHANGES TO\r\nTHE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 18.9N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 19.1N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 19.2N  93.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 19.1N  95.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 18.8N  96.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 18.5N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1000 AM CDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n \r\nERNESTO HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR NEARLY 12 HOURS AND...ASSUMING\r\nROUGHLY AN EXPONENTIAL DECAY RATE AFTER LANDFALL...THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 45 KT.  THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED...AND ASSUMING THE CENTER IS ABLE TO\r\nMOVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...THE CYCLONE COULD RE-INTENSIFY\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS FOR THE\r\nTRACK TO BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED...IN WHICH CASE\r\nTHE SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY WEAKEN TO DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nOR LESS.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES USING RADAR DATA FROM THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES OF\r\nBELIZE AND MEXICO ALONG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT\r\nERNESTO IS MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD OR 260/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nIS PREDICTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE ON A MAINLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO SHOWS A WESTWARD\r\nTRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMIC MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE HWRF...GFDL...AND\r\nGFS MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...\r\nPERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH SHOWS LESS\r\nRESTRENGTHENING...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 18.7N  90.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 18.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 18.6N  94.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 18.5N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 18.4N  97.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":30,"Date":"2012-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n400 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n \r\nERNESTO HAS HELD TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL AFTER ITS PASSAGE OVER THE\r\nYUCATAN PENINSULA.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-ORGANIZED\r\nAPPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CIUDAD DEL CARMEN...WHICH IS VERY NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT THE INTENSITY IS 45 KT.  RADAR AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nBEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.  GIVEN\r\nTHE ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...THE AMOUNT\r\nOF RE-STRENGTHENING WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON HOW LONG THE CYCLONE\r\nSTAYS OVER THE WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT\r\nERNESTO WILL MOVE BACK OVER LAND IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEREFORE SHOWS ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  GIVEN THE\r\nRELATIVE ORIENTATION OF THE TRACK TO THE COASTLINE...ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nDIRECTIONAL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT ERNESTO SPENDS OVER\r\nWATER...AND ITS LANDFALL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nAFTER ACCELERATING TO NEAR 13 KT OVER THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO BE SLOWING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT\r\n270/11.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS WEAKENING THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ERNESTO...AND A LITTLE MORE DECELERATION IS\r\nLIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL\r\nPREDICTION.  THE GFS FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHIS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT AND MOVE INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC...AND REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THAT\r\nBASIN.  THAT UNUSUAL SCENARIO IS BEING DISMISSED AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 18.9N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 18.9N  93.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 18.2N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 18.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":31,"Date":"2012-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1000 PM CDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n \r\nTHE ROBUST CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO HAS FINALLY MOVED OVER THE WATERS\r\nOF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE JUST NORTH OF CIUDAD DEL\r\nCARMEN MEXICO. INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED FROM INLAND AREAS\r\nTO OVER WATER IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 74 KT AND SEVERAL RELIABLE SFMR SURFACE WINDS\r\nOF 55-57 KT IN THAT AREA. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT. THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN ABOUT 30 NMI OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CYCLONE TO POSSIBLY REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS\r\nBEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IN THE\r\nHURRICANE WARNING AREA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. ERNESTO IS MOVING A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN EXPECTED...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...BUT\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT\r\nGETS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 18.8N  91.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 18.7N  93.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 18.3N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 17.9N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 17.6N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":32,"Date":"2012-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n400 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO HAS SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nINCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION AND IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO OVERNIGHT.  AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION...AROUND 0600 UTC...MEASURED\r\nA PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT.  NORMALLY THIS WOULD\r\nEQUATE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS..BASED ON\r\nMAXIMUM SFMR WINDS OF 55-59 KT AND A STANDARD REDUCED MEAN BOUNDARY\r\nLAYER WIND OF 58 KT FROM A DROPWINDSONDE...THAT THESE WINDS WERE\r\nNOT BEING EFFICIENTLY MIXED TO THE SURFACE. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  ERNESTO APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT 6 HOURS\r\nOR SO OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN WHICH TO\r\nINTENSIFY...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nREGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nERNESTO SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nOF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT FIXES AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ERNESTO HAS\r\nACCELERATED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 270 AT 14 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN SHOWING SOME DECELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED AND A \r\nBEND TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS ERNESTO NEARS THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL ENVELOPE\r\nAND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY OVER MUCH\r\nOF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 18.7N  93.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 18.5N  95.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 18.0N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 17.7N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":33,"Date":"2012-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1000 AM CDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nERNESTO IS MOVING ALONG OR VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF COATZACOALCOS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL VERY WELL ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF\r\nMEXICO AND WILL PROBABLY INCREASE THE RAIN IN THE AREA.  BASED ON\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50\r\nKNOTS.  SINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND AND A LARGE\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH TERRAIN...\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nPRODUCE THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.\r\nERNESTO IS ALREADY TRAPPED SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE AREA...AND THIS\r\nFLOW PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A WEST TO WESTSOUTHWEST TRACK...BRINGING\r\nERNESTO INLAND OVER MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IS A DAY OR SO. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 18.2N  94.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 17.8N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 17.5N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":34,"Date":"2012-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n400 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL\r\nON THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE CITY OF COATZACOALCOS AROUND \r\n1800 UTC WITH AN ESTIMATED INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. SINCE THEN...\r\nERNESTO HAS MOVED FARTHER INLAND AND BEGUN TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS...AND THESE WINDS\r\nARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER WATER NORTH OF THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND AND INTERACT\r\nWITH HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  ERNESTO IS LIKELY TO\r\nBECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER TORRENTIAL\r\nRAINS WILL CONTINUE...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER\r\nMUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.\r\nERNESTO IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A HIGH PRESSURE\r\nAREA...OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nFLOW PATTERN WILL FORCE ERNESTO ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nTRACK OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF\r\nMEXICO...GLOBAL MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD\r\nDEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION IN 3 DAYS OR SO. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 18.1N  95.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 18.0N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 17.5N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 17.5N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":35,"Date":"2012-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1000 PM CDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nERNESTO OVER THE THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nREDUCED TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nFORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AS ERNESTO IS\r\nSTEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSUGGEST THAT A NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS. PLEASE SEE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK\r\nFOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nVERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO\r\nDISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING\r\nOVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 18.1N  96.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 17.8N  98.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":36,"Date":"2012-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n400 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERNESTO HAS BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER\r\nA CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED\r\nMAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  ERNESTO SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO BREAK UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/11...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A NEW\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION IN 36 TO 48 HR.  PLEASE SEE\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR MORE INFORMATION\r\nON THIS POSSIBILITY.\r\n \r\nVERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVEN AFTER ERNESTO\r\nDISSIPATES...AND THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING\r\nOVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 18.0N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 17.9N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n 24H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Ernesto","Adv":37,"Date":"2012-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052012\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION HAS BECOME DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN AND IS NO\r\nLONGER TRACKABLE. ERNESTO NOW CONSISTS OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF ERNESTO WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nTHESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF MEXICO INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IF\r\nTHIS IS THE CASE...IT WILL ACQUIRE A NEW DEPRESSION NUMBER...OR A\r\nNEW NAME IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nERNESTO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 18.0N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL WAVE WHICH EMERGED FROM WEST AFRICA YESTERDAY QUICKLY\r\nDEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ALONG WITH SUBSTANTIAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TODAY. THE COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER DUE TO THE IMPINGING EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB...AND THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS\r\nPERSISTED AND IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE THAT TIME. THUS ADVISORIES\r\nARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nGENESIS OF THIS CYCLONE WAS AIDED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE\r\nWESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING\r\nCONVECTIVELY-COUPLED KELVIN WAVE AS DEPICTED BY ANALYSES FROM\r\nSUNY-ALBANY.\r\n\r\nMOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT...AS THE\r\nSYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. FINDING THE INITIAL POSITION WAS\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY AIDED BY SOME SSMI AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM\r\nNRL. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST- NORTHWEST\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW. AFTER ABOUT TWO\r\nDAYS...IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKENING AND\r\nTHUS ADVECTED ALONG WESTWARD BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WINDS. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE TCVA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE UNDERWENT GENESIS RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...IT MAY BE\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT DEVELOP MUCH FURTHER.  CURRENTLY THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEING AFFECTED BY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\nWHILE THIS SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT A DAY...THE COMBINATION OF ONLY\r\nLUKEWARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A FAIRLY DRY STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE MAY ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO PEAK ONLY AS A LOW-END TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE WEAKENING AND\r\nIT MAY NO LONGER BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY FOUR OR FIVE AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL LGEM AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS AND THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...WITH A BIT MORE\r\nEMPHASIS ON THE LATTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 13.8N  27.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 14.5N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 15.1N  31.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 15.4N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 15.6N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 16.2N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 16.5N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0000Z 16.5N  53.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nOVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIRLY CIRCULAR AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AT\r\n0600 UTC...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT\r\nVALUE.  \r\n\r\nTHE FACTORS THAT COULD AFFECT THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nARE MIXED. THE CURRENT MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING. ON THE OTHER HAND...DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND MARGINALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES COULD INHIBIT\r\nDEVELOPMENT. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LARGE SPLIT...WITH THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS SHOWING SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT\r\n5 DAYS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...HOWEVER...PREDICT LITTLE OR NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM\r\nOPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...FOLLOWING THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THEREAFTER...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO LEAN TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODELS IN PREDICTING A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/14. A\r\nGENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE FASTER AND TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5 TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 14.2N  29.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 14.9N  30.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 15.5N  32.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 16.0N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 16.2N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 16.7N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 17.5N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0600Z 19.0N  56.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY WEAKENED...A WELL-DEFINED BAND\r\nSTILL WRAPS AROUND THE EAST AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE CENTER.  A BLEND\r\nOF THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB GIVES AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FLORENCE MOVES OVER\r\nMARGINAL SSTS AND MODERATE SHEAR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN MORE STEADILY DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR FROM A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH TWO DAYS...AND THEN\r\nFOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TREND OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE\r\nMODELS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 295/14.  A MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSTEER FLORENCE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD PATH DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.   THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 3 DAYS.  AT LONG RANGE...THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nSHIFT TO THE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  \r\n \r\nTHE FORMATION OF FLORENCE THIS MORNING MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST\r\nOCCASION THAT THE SIXTH NAMED STORM HAS OCCURRED IN THE ATLANTIC\r\nBASIN...BEHIND ONLY 1936 AND 2005. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 14.8N  30.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 15.5N  32.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 16.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 16.3N  36.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 16.5N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 17.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 19.5N  53.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1200Z 22.0N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED EARLIER...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF FLORENCE...WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE START OF A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCASE PATTERN.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. \r\nSINCE A TRMM MICROWAVE PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY SUGGESTED THAT SOME\r\nPRIMITIVE INNER CORE FEATURES HAD FORMED...AND BOTH AMSU AND ADT\r\nDATA INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE\r\nBUMPED UP TO 45 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN WITH FLORENCE APPEARS\r\nFAVORABLE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nPASSING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26.5C...AND IS APPROACHING A MORE\r\nSTABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT AS INDICATED BY EUMETSAT RGB AIRMASS\r\nIMAGERY.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES. \r\nTHE STATISTICAL-BASED TOOLS FORECAST FLORENCE TO BE NEAR OR ABOVE\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS CONTRASTED WITH THE\r\nWEAKENING FORECAST BY THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS JUST A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.  GIVEN THE EARLIER MICROWAVE STRUCTURE...IT IS\r\nTEMPTING TO RAISE THE WIND PREDICTION MORE THAN WHAT IS INDICATED\r\nBELOW...BUT I HAVE ELECTED TO REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON THIS FORECAST\r\nCONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER...295/13.  A BUILDING\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CAUSE FLORENCE TO BEND TO A WESTWARD HEADING DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A WIDER SPREAD THAN\r\nEARLIER TODAY...WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN\r\nCONSISTENCY.  GENERALLY THE MODELS THAT ARE FORECASTING A MORE\r\nPOWERFUL SYSTEM...SUCH AS THE GFS...ARE CAUSING FLORENCE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND DAY 4 IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. \r\nA WEAKER CYCLONE...AS INDICATED BY THE ECMWF...WOULD PROBABLY JUST\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD.  SINCE THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN\r\nTHE LONG RANGE PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 15.3N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 15.8N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 16.2N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 16.6N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 17.1N  41.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 18.5N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 20.5N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 23.0N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 04 2012\r\n \r\nFLORENCE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE HAVE RECENTLY DISSIPATED IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  EARLIER TRMM AND WINDSAT OVERPASSES REVEAL A WELL-\r\nDEFINED LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE UNDERNEATH THIS NEW CONVECTIVE MASS...\r\nWITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION NOW PRESENT.  A DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC AND THREE-\r\nHOURLY AVERAGED ADT VALUES OF AROUND 3.3 ARE THE BASIS FOR\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY.  DESPITE BEING IN A LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH A TONGUE OF\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...\r\nEUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSURROUNDED BY A RATHER DRY AIR MASS...AND THIS AIR MASS SHOULD\r\nACCOMPANY FLORENCE ON ITS WESTWARD TREK. THESE NEGATIVE FACTORS\r\nSUGGEST THAT ANY STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM WOULD NOT LIKELY\r\nBE SIGNIFICANT.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE\r\nENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nSTORM WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS BY THIS TIME...THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WEAKENING.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS BASED ON\r\nCURRENT TRENDS AND IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME.  THE FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/13. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE TRACK OF FLORENCE TO BEND TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nENCOUNTER A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY HEADING. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE...IT\r\nREMAINS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THE DIFFERENCE IN TRACK\r\nSOLUTIONS AT LATER TIMES APPEARS DEPENDENT ON THE VERTICAL DEPTH/\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/HWRF FORECASTING A\r\nWEAKER VERSION OF FLORENCE AND THE GFS FAVORING A STRONGER SYSTEM.\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES\r\nBUT HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THE CAMP OF MODELS FAVORING A WEAKER\r\nCYCLONE GIVEN THE SHEAR FORECAST.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 16.1N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 16.5N  34.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 17.0N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 17.5N  39.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 18.1N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 19.3N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 20.9N  55.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 23.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST TO MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS CHANGE IN STRUCTURE IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF\r\nMODERATE SOUTHEASTELY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE THE STRUCTURAL\r\nCHANGES...DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE ESSENTIALLY THE\r\nSAME AS BEFORE...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n \r\nFLORENCE COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEARS UNLIKELY AS THE STORM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A FAIRLY\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY FROM THE GOES-R PROVING\r\nGROUND SHOWS SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND GFS AND ECMWF MODEL VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THIS DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE\r\nIN WESTERLY SHEAR BY TUESDAY...AT WHICH TIME STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND SHOWS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...FOLLOWED BY STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT ABOUT 13\r\nKT FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT FLORENCE\r\nWILL BEND TO THE WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM.\r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AS MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS UP TO THIS POINT.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 16.6N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 16.8N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 17.1N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 17.5N  41.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 18.0N  44.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 19.3N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 21.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 24.0N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL ON\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF FLORENCE.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EDGE OF\r\nA WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION...WITH SOME DEGRADATION NOTED ON\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES.  A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT ESTIMATES STILL GIVES\r\nA CURRENT WIND SPEED OF 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN A CHANGE WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH NONE OF THE\r\nMODELS SHOWING ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  PERHAPS THIS IS\r\nBECAUSE OF A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAN WAS\r\nEXPECTED YESTERDAY.  IN ANY EVENT...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FLORENCE\r\nMOVING DEEPER INTO THE DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nSSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY BE RISING...STRONGER SHEAR IS LIKELY WITHIN\r\n48 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THESE CONDITIONS\r\nSHOULD GENERALLY CAUSE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE NHC PREDICTION IS\r\nPRIMARILY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS SYSTEM\r\nBECAME A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED BELOW GIVEN THE\r\nMARGINAL CONDITIONS.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGES SHOW THAT FLORENCE HAS TURNED\r\nWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  A FASTER WESTWARD\r\nMOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE\r\nA RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT TIME...A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST...WHICH WOULD BRING FLORENCE A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  WHILE THE ECMWF IS A SOUTHERN\r\nOUTLIER...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE PATH OF THE STORM.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AT ALL FORECAST TIMES...BUT REMAINS ON THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH DAY 3.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 16.5N  35.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 16.7N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 16.9N  40.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 17.4N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 18.0N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 19.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 21.5N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 24.0N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS FALLEN APART NEAR FLORENCE...WITH ONLY SOME DEBRIS\r\nCLOUDS REMAINING.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND THE WIND\r\nSPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 45 KT.  DESPITE THE RECENT\r\nDECAY...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS HANGING ONTO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RATHER MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS.  THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH THE FORMER CLUSTER IS LOWER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND GENERALLY LIES NEAR OR BELOW THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY\r\nDAY 3...AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...IT COULD HAPPEN A LOT\r\nSOONER.  \r\n\r\nFLORENCE APPEARS TO BE MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST AT ABOUT 12 KT.  THIS\r\nMOTION AT A LITTLE FASTER PACE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  A TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE\r\nSOME SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTHWARD...AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 16.3N  36.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 16.4N  38.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 16.7N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 17.2N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 17.8N  47.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 19.5N  54.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 21.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1800Z 24.5N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Florence","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 05 2012\r\n \r\nFLORENCE HAD BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A WHILE UNTIL A\r\nBURST OF DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS FORMED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. EUMETSAT RGB SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE MASS OF SAHARAN AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE DRY AIR...COMBINED WITH THE\r\nEFFECTS OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR AND ONLY MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...\r\nHAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR FLORENCE TO MAINTAIN ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO WARMER WATERS DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NEAR-STORM\r\nENVIRONMENT.  WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nOVER FLORENCE AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLING FOR FLORENCE TO DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.  THIS FORECAST AGREES WELL WITH THE\r\nLATEST DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND GLOBAL MODELS...THE LATTER\r\nOF WHICH FORECAST DISSIPATION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BEING DISCOUNTED...SHOWS A\r\nREMOTE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11 KT.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW\r\nFLORENCE MOVING QUICKLY ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK OF FLORENCE SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD\r\nTHIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE ADJUSTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION...LYING CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 16.2N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 16.3N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 16.7N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 17.3N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 18.1N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 19.9N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 22.0N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  67.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Florence","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012\r\n \r\nFLORENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR ABOUT 6 HOURS AS DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE DUST\r\nPRODUCT FROM THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND...HAS BECOME WELL EMBEDDED\r\nIN THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE TO FALL AND\r\nSUPPORT DOWNGRADING FLORENCE TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS BEYOND 36 HOURS...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT\r\nTHE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR FLORENCE TO\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR AS SOON AS LATER TODAY IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON.\r\nDISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DUE WEST BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nPACE...270/10. THE MODELS AGREE THAT FLORENCE...OR ITS REMNANT\r\nLOW...SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST ECMWF RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 16.2N  38.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 16.3N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 16.6N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 17.2N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 18.1N  51.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 20.4N  58.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 23.5N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Florence","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062012\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 06 2012\r\n \r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS\r\nNOW...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF FLORENCE IS AN EXPOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 110\r\nMILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  CONSEQUENTLY...FLORENCE\r\nIS ASSESSED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  A SURROUNDING DRY/STABLE AIR MASS...COOL\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY\r\nFASTER RATE OF FORWARD MOTION...275/13.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE\r\nTO INCREASE IN SPEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE TVCA\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 16.4N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 16.5N  42.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 16.9N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 17.6N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 18.5N  54.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 21.1N  60.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 24.2N  66.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nLOW CLOUD MOTIONS FROM ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  THERE IS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nWARRANT THE DESIGNATION OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS\r\nFROM NOAA DATA BUOY 41041...WHICH THE CYCLONE SHOULD PASS NEAR OR\r\nOVER A FEW HOURS FROM NOW.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH\r\nAN ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AS THE LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR IN THE 15 TO 20\r\nKT RANGE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MOREOVER...THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nA STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nAND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 17 KT.  AN\r\nEVEN FASTER FORWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IS INDICATED\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF MODELS SUGGEST A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE LATTER PART\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THAT SCENARIO SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE RIDGE FORECAST BY THE GFS AND ECMWF AT THIS TIME.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 13.7N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 13.6N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 13.5N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 13.5N  53.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 13.8N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 14.6N  64.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 15.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 16.5N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 09 2012\r\n\r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO\r\nBANDING FEATURES APPARENT.  WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n30 KT.  THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY\r\n41041 OVERNIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER LOOK AT THE\r\nINTENSITY.  ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT FOR NOW...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION ALWAYS SEEMS TO HAVE SOME\r\nNEGATIVE FACTORS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS PLENTY\r\nOF DRY AIR AND MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nINITIALLY...WHICH IS PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LACKLUSTER\r\nCONVECTION.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD OVER WARMER WATERS...THE\r\nINSTABILITY SHOULD RISE...BUT THE SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE\r\nWITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO A LARGE MID-OCEANIC TROUGH.  THIS\r\nSHEAR IS LIKELY TO FURTHER INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE\r\nTROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...SHOWING ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE DAY 4 AND 5 PREDICTIONS HAVE BEEN REDUCED GIVEN THE LIKELY\r\nPERSISTENCE OF THE SHEAR AND THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NON-DEVELOPMENT\r\nTREND IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT 270/17.  THIS GENERAL TRACK AND\r\nSPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nPERSISTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE\r\nINDICATIONS FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT THE RIDGE COULD WEAKEN\r\nSOMEWHAT...AND THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE SHIFT TO A MORE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST COURSE IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST...HOWEVER...STAYS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS JUST A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nSINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE A SLOW AND POLEWARD BIAS\r\nWITH LOW-LATITUDE SYSTEMS IN THIS AREA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 13.7N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 13.6N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 13.6N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 13.7N  55.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 14.1N  58.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 14.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 16.0N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 17.0N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nOVERNIGHT.  A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES HAVE REVEALED A\r\nSMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  NOAA BUOY 41041\r\nREPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 KT AND A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 1010.9 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED ABOUT 30 TO 40 N MI\r\nSOUTH OF THE BUOY AROUND 0600 UTC.  BASED ON THE BUOY\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND LACK OF STRUCTURAL CHANGE...THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER INCREASING SSTS AND REMAIN IN\r\nA LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  HOWEVER...DRY\r\nAIR NEAR THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR ONLY MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS AS IT NEARS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.  THIS INCREASING SHEAR WILL\r\nLIKELY HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF WEAKEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM AND SHOW IT BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE IN THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN.  FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE\r\nWEAKENING...BUT THAT IS ONE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS\r\nSMALL...MAKING IT MORE PRONE TO THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT\r\n17 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING\r\nAND SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS STEERED WESTWARD BY A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  BEYOND THREE DAYS THE\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHICH WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGFS MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 13.6N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 13.6N  49.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 13.7N  53.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 13.9N  56.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 14.3N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 15.3N  66.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 16.5N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 17.5N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND DVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE STILL 1.5 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB.  WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL DATA AVAILABLE TO US AT THIS\r\nTIME...WE ARE KEEPING THE CYCLONE AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT IN VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE UPDATED POSITION YIELDS A FASTER 12-HR MOTION OF\r\n270/20 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE STEERING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD INTO THE\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN\r\nOVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...BUT SINCE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...NOT MUCH\r\nGAIN IN LATITUDE IS EXPECTED.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION AND\r\nCONTINUES TO LIE CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nNEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A DIFFICULT ONE.  THE\r\nONLY ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETER THAT APPEARS IDEAL FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nIS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS LIKELY BEING AFFECTED BY SURROUNDING DRY AIR...WHICH COULD BE\r\nCOMPOUNDED BY INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE FAST MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION WOULD\r\nNORMALLY FAVOR LESS STRENGTHENING AS WELL.  PROBABLY DUE TO THESE\r\nFACTORS...THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEGENERATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  AS\r\nPLAUSIBLE AS THAT SCENARIO IS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL KEEPS\r\nTHE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE 5-DAY PERIOD BUT AT A\r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME AN OPEN WAVE EARLIER\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ARE NOT BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES\r\nAT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 13.7N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 13.7N  52.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 13.8N  55.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 14.1N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 14.6N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 15.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 16.0N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 17.0N  83.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...BUT THE OVERALL\r\nSTRUCTURE HAS NOT IMPROVED.  IN FACT...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nMAY BE ELONGATING...AND IT IS HARD TO TELL IF THE CENTER IS\r\nEVEN CLOSED ANYMORE.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING KEPT AS A 30-KT\r\nDEPRESSION BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nTHE EVIDENCE APPEARS TO BE MOUNTING THAT SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL NOT TAKE PLACE.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING\r\nINTO A HIGHER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOON...AND THE LGEM AND SHIPS\r\nMODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO.  THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONSISTENT AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS\r\nOVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  GIVEN THE CURRENT FRAGILE STATE OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION...AND THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS THAT LIE AHEAD...\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM\r\nBEFORE IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THEN SHOWS DISSIPATION\r\nINTO A TROUGH OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST...NOW WITH AN\r\nESTIMATED MOTION OF 270/21 KT.  A FAST WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT THAN THEY HAD BEEN...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR A CONSENSUS OF THOSE TWO MODELS UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHETHER OR NOT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL EVEN BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.  THE VARIOUS\r\nGOVERNMENTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE THEREFORE DECIDED TO ISSUE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR THEIR RESPECTIVE ISLANDS...EVEN THOUGH\r\nTROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 13.7N  51.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 13.9N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 14.2N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 14.5N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 14.7N  66.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS\r\nRATHER SHAPELESS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING. SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES ARE STILL T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A 1-MINUTE WIND OBSERVATION AT NOAA\r\nBUOY 41040 OF 31 KNOTS AT 2246Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY\r\nMARGINAL FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASING ABOVE 20 KT IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS\r\nWITH LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS.\r\nTHIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...\r\nWHICH CONTINUE TO SHOW THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN OR CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 275/21. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH\r\nDISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED BY THE ATLANTIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART\r\nOF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS\r\nWOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 13.9N  54.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 14.1N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 14.3N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 14.6N  64.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 14.8N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH\r\nOF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND IT IS\r\nUNCLEAR IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS DUE TO THE RAPID\r\nWESTWARD MOTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A\r\n30 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND CONTINUITY FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nIS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A RAPID 275/21.  THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED\r\nBY THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO\r\nTHE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HR OR SO...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO\r\nENCOUNTER STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE IT TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR DISSIPATION NEAR THE\r\n48 HR POINT.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES CONTINUE FOR PART\r\nOF THE LESSER ANTILLES...EVEN THOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS\r\nWOULD REACH THOSE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 14.0N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 14.2N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 14.4N  63.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 14.6N  67.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Seven","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS OBSERVED SHARP WIND SHIFTS AT AN ALTITUDE OF 1000 FT...BUT IT\r\nHAS BEEN UNABLE TO LOCATE A PERSISTENT AND WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE DEPRESSION HAS THEREFORE DEGENERATED INTO A\r\nTROPICAL WAVE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE WAVE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION...AND\r\nADVISORIES WOULD BE RE-INITIATED IF NEEDED.\r\n \r\nTHE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT AN ESTIMATED SPEED\r\nOF 22 KT.  THE AXIS OF THE WAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LESSER\r\nANTILLES THIS EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE WESTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nWE WOULD LIKE TO THANK THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOR\r\nTHEIR HARD WORK INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 13.3N  58.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-17 21:30:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n430 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS\r\nOF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FOUND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND\r\nPEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR\r\nWINDS OF 38 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS NOW UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE WITH AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT...ALTHOUGH THESE\r\nWINDS COULD BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY TOPOGRAPHY AND DECAYING\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS SOMEWHAT LACKLUSTER...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDISPLACED WEST OF THE CENTER LOCATION. THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS\r\nSOME POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nINLAND WITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY DECAY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 48 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/06. HELENE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST OF\r\nMEXICO IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RETREATS NORTHWARD. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE ECMWF THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM HELENE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL\r\nCONTINUE EVEN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2130Z 20.6N  96.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 21.1N  96.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 22.1N  98.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 22.9N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 23.5N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012\r\n\r\nA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INVESTIGATED HELENE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS\r\nEVENING AND FOUND THAT THE DEVELOPMENT TREND OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY\r\nIS NO LONGER OCCURRING. HELENE IS EITHER WEAKER OR ON A STEADY\r\nSTATE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WELL\r\nDEFINED CIRCULATION AS INDICATED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE BEFORE\r\nIT LEFT THE AREA...AND ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS\r\nDETERIORATED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR\r\nHELENE TO REGAIN SOME STRENGTH BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS OR EARLIER. AFTER LANDFALL...A STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED.\r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT HELENE WAS\r\nMEANDERING OR DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO\r\nFORCE HELENE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS TOWARD THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT VARIOUS MODELS\r\nINCLUDING THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP A LOW...OR PERHAPS THE MODEL\r\nREPRESENTATION OF HELENE DRIFTING NORTHWARD VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO FOR SEVERAL DAYS...AND IN FACT...THE GFS RESTRENGTHENS\r\nTHIS FEATURE.      \r\n \r\nNEVERTHELESS...THE MAIN THREAT FROM HELENE WILL BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...WHICH WILL CONTINUE EVEN AS THE CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES\r\nINLAND AND WEAKENS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 21.0N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 21.7N  97.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 22.2N  97.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 23.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 24.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n400 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE HAS BEEN MINIMAL DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR\r\nNOW...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HELENE IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THAT.\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE ONLY HAS A SHORT TIME BEFORE IT BEGINS\r\nINTERACTING WITH LAND...STRENGTHENING IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nSHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THE CENTER\r\nMOVES INLAND...STEADY WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nARE ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM MEXICO INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF HELENE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND. SMOOTHING\r\nTHROUGH THE WOBBLES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE STRONG\r\nENOUGH TO STEER HELENE NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\nTHIS TRACK SHOULD TAKE HELENE INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO\r\nLATER TODAY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO UNTIL IT\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 21.6N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 21.9N  97.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 22.4N  98.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 23.1N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 23.8N  97.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Helene","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM\r\nALTAMIRA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF HELENE IS LOCATED JUST INLAND\r\nFROM THE COAST VERY NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO.  A NEW BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION LIES IN BANDS TO THE EAST OVER THE WATER. \r\nDVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND SCATTEROMETER\r\nDATA...NO LONGER SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS...AND HELENE IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER LAND...AND HELENE COULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT.  ALTHOUGH THE GFS MODEL SHOWS\r\nHELENE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER WATER IN 2-3 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE OTHER MODELS AND INDICATES DISSIPATION BY 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nAFTER MOVING VERY LITTLE LAST EVENING...HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nACCELERATED OVERNIGHT AND HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 305/8 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO SINCE IT WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND TRAPPED AGAINST THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE\r\nSIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTALS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 22.0N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 22.6N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 23.0N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 23.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Helene","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n400 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nHELENE IS MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND IT\r\nCONTINUES TO PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW ON\r\nTHE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE.  THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n25 KT BASED ON A 1554 UTC ASCAT PASS...WHICH BARELY SHOWED 20-25 KT\r\nOF WIND OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION APPEARS\r\nTO BE LOSING SOME DEFINITION...AND DISSIPATION SHOULD OCCUR SOON IF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE RIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS HELENE\r\nBECOMING A REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nHELENE HAS SLOWED DOWN NOW THAT IT IS OVER LAND...AND THE ESTIMATED\r\nMOTION IS 295/4 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RUN INTO THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOON...AND IT IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 22.6N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 22.9N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Helene","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072012\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nHELENE HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO...AND IT HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.\r\nTHE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS STILL\r\nACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nHELENE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 22.8N  99.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 23.0N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR THE PAST WEEK HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED\r\nENOUGH PERSISTENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY\r\nCOLD...THE CONVECTION IS DEEP ENOUGH TO MEET THE CRITERIA FOR\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH ARE T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE 18Z\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS. ALSO...A RECENT UW-CIMSS SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE INDICATES THE INTENSITY IS NEAR 30 KT...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/16 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF VISIBLE\r\nAND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nEVENTUALLY TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nCAPTURED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nTOWARD THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCULATION THAT IS SURROUNDED\r\nBY VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER\r\nFAVORABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND IN A\r\nLOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...OCCASIONAL INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR\r\nARE EXPECTED TO KEEP THE SYSTEM CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE BEST\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO ACHIEVE HURRICANE STATUS WOULD BE\r\nBETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBELOW THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE\r\nEFFECTS OF THE SURROUNDING DRY ENVIRONMENT...BUT ABOVE THE GFDL\r\nWHICH SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nTHIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA AND...\r\nTHEREFORE...SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY DIRECT IMPACT ON THAT ISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 29.9N  55.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 31.6N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 33.5N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 34.6N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 35.0N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 35.2N  38.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 36.6N  29.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 38.8N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 15 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN...WHICH IN FACT IS SMALL...IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHAN EARLIER TODAY. A CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND\r\nTHE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nVERY LIMITED. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 2.0 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE WHICH RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS\r\nCOOLER WATERS. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS FOLLOWING THE ICON AND\r\nTHE LGEM MODELS...BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE HWRF...WHICH INSISTS ON\r\nMAKING THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES\r\nAT 15 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. VERY\r\nSOON...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOW DOWN AND RECURVE AS IT BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. ONCE IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nFORECAST IS LESS CERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IN 4 DAYS OR\r\nSO...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING VERY NEAR THE AZORES. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 31.3N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 33.0N  54.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 34.5N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 35.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 35.5N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 37.5N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 40.0N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS\r\nFORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE SYSTEM HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE.  GORDON SHOULD BE\r\nMOVING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND WITHIN A LIGHT-TO-MODERATE\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ALMOST ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE STORM CLOSE TO OR BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN 72\r\nHRS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FROM 48-72\r\nHR...AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nGORDON APPEARS TO HAVE RECURVED AND IS MOVING ABOUT 015/12 KT.  THE\r\nSTORM IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD THEN EASTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...GORDON SHOULD INTERACT MORE WITH\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD\r\nOF A TROUGH.  WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...THERE HAS\r\nBEEN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK IN THE MAJORITY OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\nWHILE GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT WILL BE EXTRATROPICAL AT THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 32.2N  54.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 33.5N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 34.6N  50.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 34.5N  46.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 34.4N  42.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 35.0N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 36.8N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/0600Z 39.5N  20.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS\r\nHAVE FORMED AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH INDICATES\r\nTHAT GORDON IS STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nT3.0 FROM TAFB...T2.5 FROM SAB...AND T2.7 ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. GIVEN\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL BANDED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN A 16/1143 UTC SSMIS\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45\r\nKT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE 45-KT TAFB INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nGORDON IS RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW\r\n045/14 KT. THE CYCLONE HAS ROUNDED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND\r\nWILL BE MOVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...GORDON SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nEAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nLIFT OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nAND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... \r\nSO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL\r\nESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nABOUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AT\r\nLEAST 27C LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT OF THESE FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR IS BEGINNING TO ENCROACH FROM THE WEST. BY 48\r\nHOURS...WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nSHARPLY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO PUT A BRAKE ON THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING PROCESS. AS GORDON APPROACHES THE AZORES IN 4 DAYS...\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND TRANSITION INTO A\r\nSTRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...IV15.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 33.3N  53.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 34.3N  51.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 34.9N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 34.9N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 34.8N  40.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 35.6N  32.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 37.9N  25.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/1200Z 40.4N  19.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\n...CORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION WHICH SHOULD BE 070/15 INSTEAD OF\r\n055/15...\r\n\r\nGORDON HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TIGHTLY COILED CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nBANDS SPIRALING INTO A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...T3.0/45 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND T2.7/39 KT ADT FROM UW-CIMSS. AN 1143 UTC SSMIS\r\nIMAGE INDICATED A CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE AND A 1311 UTC ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS REVEALED 39-KT SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WHEN ADJUSTED FOR THE\r\nKNOWN LOW BIAS OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA YIELDS ABOUT 44 KT. GIVEN\r\nTHE MUCH IMPROVED BANDING STRUCTURE SINCE THOSE MICROWAVE DATA WERE\r\nACQUIRED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nGORDON IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST...OR 070/15 KT...AND\r\nIS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING ALONG THE\r\nNORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BE MOVING INTO\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. GORDON\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH AT\r\nLEAST THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A \r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND BE NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS BETWEEN DAYS 3\r\nAND 4. THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO\r\nTHIS FORECAST PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND\r\nDRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS MANAGED THUS FAR TO REMAIN AWAY FROM THE\r\nINNER CORE REGION. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH SSTS GREATER\r\nTHAN 27C SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...ENTRAINMENT OF\r\nDRY MID-LEVEL AIR FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. AS GORDON\r\nNEARS THE AZORES ISLANDS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nBY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND\r\nBECOME A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS CLOSE\r\nTO IV15 INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 34.2N  52.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 34.7N  49.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 34.9N  46.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 34.7N  42.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 34.7N  38.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 36.1N  30.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 38.8N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/1800Z 41.2N  15.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW\r\nTHAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME SYMMETRIC WITH THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.\r\nA WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BAND IS WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST SIDES OF THE CIRCULATION. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY. AN AVERAGE OF THESE TWO\r\nESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. GORDON ONLY\r\nHAS A DAY OR SO TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN\r\nBEGIN...BUT GORDON IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM BY THE\r\nTIME IT MOVES THROUGH THE AZORES IN 3 DAYS. ONCE GORDON MOVE EAST OF\r\nTHE AZORES...IT SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\nGORDON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 085 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS...WELL\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. SINCE THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN WELL\r\nESTABLISHED...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE\r\nEASTWARD THROUGH THE AZORES. MODELS ALSO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BRINGS GORDON THROUGH THE AZORES IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 34.6N  50.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 34.9N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 34.8N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 34.5N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 34.5N  35.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 36.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 39.0N  21.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/0000Z 41.0N  15.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF GORDON HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC.  MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...PROBABLY A REFLECTION OF\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE COME DOWN A BIT...SO THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT.  A SMALL TROUGH SEEN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF GORDON IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES COULD HAVE HELPED CAUSED\r\nTHE RECENT INCREASE IN SHEAR.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS\r\nTROUGH WEAKENING...WHICH MIGHT ALLOW THE SHEAR TO DECREASE AGAIN. \r\nTHE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE STILL PREDICT GORDON WILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THOUGH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS\r\nSOLUTION.  THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT\r\nSTILL SHOWS GORDON BRIEFLY AS A HURRICANE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS\r\nGENERALLY BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SHADED TOWARD THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nGORDON IS MOVING EASTWARD AT ABOUT 16 KT.  THE STORM IS BEING\r\nSTEERED TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF EAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...GORDON WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH.  MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY A SMALL SOUTHWARD\r\nCHANGE WAS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.   WHILE GORDON IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...A COMBINATION OF\r\nCOLD WATER...INCREASING SHEAR...AND A NEARBY BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD\r\nPROMOTE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR OR BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES THOSE ISLANDS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 34.6N  48.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 34.5N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 34.2N  41.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 34.2N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 34.7N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 37.0N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 39.0N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/0600Z 40.0N  17.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 17 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GORDON REMAINS RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE...\r\nWITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nCOLDEST CLOUD TOPS DISPLACED NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER. UW-CIMSS\r\nSATELLITE ANALYSIS AND SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW AROUND 15 KT OF\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...WHILE MET-9 AIRMASS\r\nIMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55\r\nKT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON AN\r\nOBSERVATION OF 999 MB FROM A DRIFTING BUOY THAT THE CENTER PASSED\r\nJUST NORTH OF AROUND 1000 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE IN THE SHORT TERM...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ALLOW GORDON TO STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES\r\nSUB-26C WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE PEAKING AT 60 KT IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS UNTIL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST...095/16.\r\nGORDON WILL BE STEERED GENERALLY EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC. BY 48 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH\r\nTHE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST AND INDUCE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. A SLOW EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT\r\nPASS FROM AROUND 1250 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 34.5N  46.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 34.2N  43.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 34.1N  39.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 34.4N  35.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 35.2N  31.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 38.0N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 39.0N  19.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1200Z 39.5N  16.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GORDON HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS NOW EMBEDDED BENEATH A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION CURLING AROUND TO\r\nTHE EAST.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED FROM THIS MORNING...AND\r\nTHEY ARE NOW MORE SUPPORTIVE OF THE 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY.  THE\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN INCREASED A BIT BASED ON AMSU DATA FROM\r\nEARLIER IN THE DAY.\r\n \r\nGORDON IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...MOVING\r\nEASTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 095/17 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO\r\nTHE BASE OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nAFTER THAT...GORDON SHOULD BE A WEAKER CYCLONE...AND IT WILL LIKELY\r\nTURN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5 AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY\r\nLOWER-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITHIN\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE AZORES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE HFIP MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO DETRIMENTAL FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING WHILE GORDON REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE ABOVE 30 KT BY 48 HOURS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE\r\nCOMMENCED BY THAT TIME.  GORDON SHOULD THEN COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AFTER IT HAS ALREADY PASSED THE\r\nAZORES.  THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS...WITH MANY OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAKING\r\nGORDON A HURRICANE WHILE THE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW\r\nVERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS\r\nGORDON JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING IF IT DID BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nIN FACT...BASED ON PAST NHC INTENSITY ERRORS...THERE IS A 1 IN 3\r\nCHANCE THAT GORDON COULD BE A HURRICANE AT THE 24- AND 36-HOUR\r\nFORECAST PERIODS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...GORDON WILL BE APPROACHING THE AZORES AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS.  THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS\r\nTHEREFORE ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN\r\nAZORES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 34.3N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 34.1N  41.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 34.2N  37.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 34.7N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 35.8N  28.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 38.5N  21.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 39.5N  17.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1800Z 38.5N  14.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 17 2012\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF SSMIS MICROWAVE OVERPASSES FROM THE NAVY/NRL TC PAGE\r\nINDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN HALF OF GORDON.  BASED ON THE IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN...THE\r\nTAFB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE...AND TWO EARLIER CIRA AMSU-A\r\nESTIMATES OF 62 AND 70 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS RELATIVELY LOW...FOR AT LEAST THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  SUBSEQUENTLY...GORDON COULD STILL BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES\r\nNOT EXPLICITLY INDICATE STRENGTHENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY DAY 2 WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  GORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AROUND THE\r\n72 HOUR PERIOD...AS INDICATED BY A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND THE FLORIDA STATE CYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION DIAGRAM.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IVCN STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND REFLECTS DISSIPATION AT DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 090/16 KT...WITHIN THE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nGENERALLY EASTWARD AT A RAPID CLIP THROUGH DAY 3 AS IT MOVES SOUTH\r\nOF A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW SITUATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF\r\nTHE UNITED KINGDOM.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BE A WEAK POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BY DAY 5 IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 34.2N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 34.1N  39.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 34.4N  35.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 35.2N  31.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 36.4N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 39.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 39.0N  16.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nCONVECTION HAS WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...AND\r\nRECENT TRMM AND SSM/I OVERPASSES SHOWED AN EYE HAS DEVELOPED.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 KT AT 0600\r\nUTC...AND AN AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS AT 0454 UTC WAS 64 KT.  BASED\r\nON THESE DATA AND THE SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...GORDON\r\nIS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 090/16.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW CENTERED WEST\r\nOF THE BRITISH ISLES SHOULD STEER GORDON EASTWARD TO EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR.  AFTER THAT...A SLOWER MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF GORDON.\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AND THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARM...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING OR AT LEAST MAINTAINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12-18 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GORDON TO\r\nREMAIN A HURRICANE TODAY.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING SHEAR...\r\nDECREASING SSTS...AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD\r\nCAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING.  GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 34.0N  40.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 34.0N  37.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 34.5N  33.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 35.3N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 36.5N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 38.5N  20.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 38.5N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nA LITTLE MORE APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND IS QUITE DISTINCT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR GORDON\r\nTO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAT HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AND THE OBSERVED\r\nINTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nMARKEDLY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE\r\nCYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASED SHEAR COMBINED WITH\r\nCOOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS\r\nSHOW GORDON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/16...AS GORDON IS BEING STEERED\r\nEASTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES. A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHES GORDON AND THE LARGER DEEP-LAYER LOW LIFTS\r\nNORTHWARD. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THIS CYCLE...\r\nAND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW\r\nNHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE NEW INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF\r\nPORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN\r\nAZORES AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 34.1N  38.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 34.3N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 35.0N  31.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 36.1N  27.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 37.4N  24.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 38.5N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 38.5N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION OF GORDON HAS CONTINUED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED AND WARMED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nCOOLED AROUND THE CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE T5.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB AT 1800 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 90 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. GORDON SHOULD BE NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFTER THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD DUE TO THE STRONGER\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS IF\r\nNOT A LITTLE SOONER. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS AS\r\nTHE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLING. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/18...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AS THE DEEP-LAYER CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR\r\n50N/20W STEERS GORDON QUICKLY EASTWARD. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS THE CLOSED LOW LIFTS NORTH AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH WILL TUG GORDON EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. AFTER\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLES...A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND\r\nFASTER...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS CLOSE TO THE \r\nECMWF MODEL THROUGH DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 34.1N  36.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 34.4N  33.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 35.4N  29.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 36.8N  25.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 38.0N  22.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 39.0N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 39.0N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 18 2012\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS AN IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH A DISTINCT WARM\r\nEYE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nYIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 95 KT. THE HURRICANE IS CROSSING\r\nTHE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE STRENGTH SOON. WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BE MORE RAPID BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nCOOL WATERS AND IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH EVERY MODEL\r\nKEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES THE AZORES. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE LGEM MODEL.\r\nA STRONG TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GORDON IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD FACILITATE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/19...A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITHIN A DAY OR SO DUE TO AN APPROACHING\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS WELL-CLUSTERED WITH ALMOST\r\nEVERY MODEL MOVING GORDON THROUGH THE EASTERN AZORES BETWEEN 24 AND\r\n36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE SPEEDY SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SINCE\r\nGORDON HAS BEEN A FAST MOVER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 34.5N  33.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 35.1N  30.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 36.3N  26.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 37.7N  23.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 38.9N  20.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 39.5N  17.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 39.0N  15.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012\r\n \r\nGORDON REMAINS A WELL ORGANIZED HURRICANE BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nWEAKENED A LITTLE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nVALUES LIKELY DUE TO A SLIGHT COOLING OF THE EYE AND A THINNING OF\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE HURRICANE HAS NOW MOVED OVER\r\nSUB-26C WATERS AND CURRENTLY LIES IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR. SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE\r\nFURTHER ON THE EXPECTED TRACK AND BECAUSE GORDON IS ANTICIPATED TO\r\nMOVE INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\nPOST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...WHEN THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY DECOUPLED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 4...FOLLOWING THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE SWIFTLY EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. A SHORT\r\nWAVE TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES NEAR 40N/40W IS SWINGING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...TAKING GORDON VERY NEAR SANTA\r\nMARIA AND SAO MIGUEL ISLANDS IN THE EASTERN AZORES IN 18 TO 24\r\nHOURS.  AFTER PASSING THE AZORES...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY AND TURN BACK TO THE EAST\r\nBEFORE IT DISSIPATES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 34.9N  31.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 35.7N  28.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 37.2N  25.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 38.6N  22.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 39.4N  19.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 39.7N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 19 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF GORDON IS INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGERY...BUT HAS BEGUN TO SHRINK AND BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. AN 1103 UTC SSMIS PASS FROM THE FNMOC TC WEBPAGE\r\nSHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL HAS OPENED UP ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE\r\nCIRCULATION ALSO APPEARS TO BE TILTING EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT...\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE ALMOST 30 KT OF SHEAR ANALYZED OVER GORDON BY\r\nUW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 85 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST SINCE GORDON WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS WHILE THE\r\nSHEAR REMAINS ABOVE 30 KT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR\r\n40N/40W OVERTAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE LATEST DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...BUT KEEPS GORDON AS A\r\nHURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR THE EASTERN AZORES TOMORROW. THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF\r\nGORDON DECOPULING BY 48 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL AROUND THAT TIME. GORDON SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/18. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nSHORTWAVE. BEYOND THAT TIME A SLOWER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nAFTER THE CIRCULATION DECOUPLES. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AT 48 AND 72 HOURS THE\r\nNHC TRACK IS A BIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS AND THE ECMWF. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 35.5N  29.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 36.5N  26.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 38.0N  23.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 39.2N  20.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 39.5N  19.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 39.5N  17.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012\r\n \r\nGORDON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS DEEP CONVECTION IS ERODING\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nELONGATED.  HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT ON RECENT\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 75 KT BASED ON THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR...AND  THE\r\nNEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.  MODEL FIELDS AND FSU\r\nPHASE SPACE DIGRAMS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY 36\r\nHOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SHEAR APART AND BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/18.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO OF GORDON INTERACTING WITH\r\nA SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE A BIT MORE OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES...A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT\r\nIS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 36.1N  27.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 37.3N  24.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 38.8N  21.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 39.2N  19.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 39.2N  18.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 39.0N  17.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE DISAPPEARED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS\r\nOVER THE HURRICANE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST PART OF THE CLOUD MASS...BUT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nSTILL QUITE STRONG.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT IS\r\nBASED ON AN ASSUMED SLOW WEAKENING RATE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A\r\nBLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.   THE COMBINATION OF\r\nINCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING.  GORDON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 72\r\nHOURS OR LESS.   THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST SHIPS OUTPUT...BUT IS IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE DIAGNOSTICS\r\nFROM THAT MODEL SHOW GORDON LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON\r\nMONDAY.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER HAS MORE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 070/17...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER.\r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY CURRENT TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF A LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.  AS THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GORDON IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED AWAY BY\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GORDON OR ITS\r\nPOST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED\r\nMAINLY BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THEREFORE A CONSIDERABLE\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A BIT FASTER\r\nTHAN THE LATEST GFS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE\r\nTIMELY ASCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 36.7N  25.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 37.8N  23.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 38.8N  20.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 39.2N  19.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 39.3N  18.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gordon","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE EYE OF HURRICANE GORDON PASSED OVER SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE\r\nEASTERN AZORES AROUND 0530 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME RAGGED AND SHEARED TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE CI-NUMBER OF\r\nT4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...WHICH COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/13. GORDON IS ON TRACK SO\r\nTHERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. GORDON WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AZORES ISLANDS\r\nTODAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST OVER THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE VERTICALLY\r\nSHALLOW DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COLDER\r\nWATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.\r\n\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AZORES INDICATE AMBIENT AND DEWPOINT\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING 19-21C...WHICH IS NOT VERY TROPICAL-LIKE.\r\nALSO...VERTICAL SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO MORE THAN 30 KT AND IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THAT VALUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS A\r\nRESULT OF THESE VERY UNFAVORABLE DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC\r\nCONDITIONS...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE\r\nOVER THE COLD ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE AZORES AND PORTUGAL BY 72\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 37.4N  24.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 38.3N  22.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 38.9N  20.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 39.2N  18.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 39.2N  17.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gordon","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 20 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY IN THE AZORES PROVIDED A REPORT OF A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB ON SANTA MARIA ISLAND IN THE EASTERN\r\nAZORES AS GORDON PASSED OVER THAT ISLAND THIS MORNING. A MAXIMUM\r\n10-MINUTE WIND OF 53 KT WITH A GUST TO 70 KT WAS OBSERVED AT SANTA\r\nMARIA AIRPORT. SINCE PASSING THE EASTERN AZORES...GORDON HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO LOSE ORGANIZATION...AND THE CENTER IS INCREASINGLY\r\nEXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...\r\nAND IS BASED ON RECENT DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND A PARTIAL ASCAT\r\nPASS FROM SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC. GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSTEADILY WEAKEN DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND\r\nUNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. GORDON IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060 DEGREES AT 14 KT.\r\nGORDON IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 38.3N  22.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 39.0N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 39.2N  18.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 39.2N  17.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 39.0N  16.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Gordon","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 20 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL WATERS HAVE CONTINUED TO TAKE A\r\nTOLL ON GORDON. DEEP CONVECTION IS NEARLY GONE...AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS RESEMBLING THAT OF A FRONTAL CYCLONE...WITH THE LARGE\r\nCLOUD SHIELD AND MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION LOCATED WELL NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DO NOT INDICATE ANY BAROCLINIC REDEVELOPMENT.  THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SEVERAL HUNDRED N MI\r\nWEST OF PORTUGAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nGORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR 060\r\nDEGREES AT 14 KT TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nTURN EASTWARD TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 39.2N  20.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 39.6N  18.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 39.3N  17.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 38.7N  16.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL\r\nTROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND T1.5/25 KT\r\nFROM SAB. SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...\r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH SOME CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -80C NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/17 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED\r\nSOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nINTACT FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND\r\nTHE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS\r\nFLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCA...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE OF THE FASTER GFS MODEL AND SLOWER\r\nECMWF MODEL.\r\n \r\nOTHER THAN SOME MODEST NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE\r\nQUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. DURING DAYS 2-3...THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE THE WEAKEST AND WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nTHE WARMEST...AND THAT IS WHEN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nSHOULD OCCUR. AT DAYS 4 AND 5...POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH LAND\r\nMASSES OF HAITI AND CUBA...RESPECTIVELY...IS THE PRIMARY REASON \r\nFOR THE LEVELING OFF IN THE INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF...BUT IS LOWER THAN...THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3 AND 4.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE\r\nCYCLONE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 15.2N  51.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 15.3N  53.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 15.7N  57.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 16.0N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 16.3N  63.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 16.9N  69.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 18.0N  74.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 20.0N  77.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 21 2012\r\n\r\nA BURST OF CONVECTION CONTINUES JUST SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL COVERAGE\r\nHAS DECREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA AND THE RELATIVELY HIGH PRESSURE OF 1010 MB AT NOAA BUOY\r\n41040...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE\r\nDEPRESSION THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/17.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED SOUTH\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nTO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND\r\nTHE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH THE UKMET\r\nON THE RIGHT EDGE SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nCOAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ON THE LEFT EDGE\r\nSHOWING THE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HR...THEN IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT.  THE TRACK IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR OR SO...LEAVING THE CYCLONE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR...SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN 12 HR AND A HURRICANE IN 48 HR.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO HISPANIOLA AND\r\nCUBA THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST DURING THAT TIME HAS BEEN LOWERED BY 5-10 KT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 15.1N  52.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 15.2N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 15.5N  58.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.9N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 16.2N  64.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 17.0N  70.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 18.5N  74.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/1200Z 20.5N  77.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nDEPRESSION REPORTED 44-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 1000 FT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AS WELL AS BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE\r\nWINDS ESTIMATES OF 35 KT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS NEAR\r\n1005 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC.  DESPITE THE UPGRADE...THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nSOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS NUDGED NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT\r\nTHE LONGER TERM MOTION IS 275/15.  ISAAC REMAINS SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 72 HR...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA AND\r\nTHE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND\r\nTHE GREATER ANTILLES.  THE GUIDANCE HAS BECOME LESS CONSISTENT\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WHILE THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE...THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE\r\nLEFT OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NOW CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION\r\nAFTER ISAAC PASSES HISPANIOLA.  THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE ALSO SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD...ALTHOUGH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL LIES NEAR THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  THE NEW TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BEFORE 72 HR...AND THEN IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HR LIES NEAR THE\r\nLEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF WELL TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.  USERS ARE CAUTIONED THAT FIVE-DAY\r\nTRACK ERRORS AVERAGE ABOUT 225 N MI.\r\n \r\nISAAC CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND IT MAY NOT YET HAVE FULLY MIXED OUT THE DRY AIR THAT\r\nHAS BEEN AFFECTING IT.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 12-24\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING.  THAT BEING SAID...THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THEIR FORECASTS OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ARE ALSO LESS\r\nBULLISH.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE\r\nLESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AFTER 72 HR HAS AGAIN BEEN REDUCED DUE TO THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK SHOWING INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 15.4N  53.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 15.6N  56.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 15.9N  59.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 16.3N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 16.6N  66.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 17.0N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 19.5N  75.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 21.5N  78.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 21 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE INTO ISAAC RECENTLY...BUT\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT\r\nWHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\nANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ISAAC\r\nAT AROUND 0600 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS SOME SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY\r\nAND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE\r\nSAME...275/16.  A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDEPICT ISAAC NEARING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE NEAR FLORIDA.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW...AND THE HEADING\r\nTO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT...IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SHIFTED JUST A BIT TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF TRACK AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nCURRENTLY AFFECTING ISAAC...BUT THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR WITH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND ISAAC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS COMPLICATED BY HOW MUCH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN TRIES TO TAKE\r\nINTO ACCOUNT THE LAND INTERACTION.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC IN THE 3 TO 5\r\nDAY TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 15.6N  55.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 15.8N  58.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 16.2N  61.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 16.7N  64.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 17.1N  67.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 18.3N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 20.5N  76.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  27/0000Z 23.0N  79.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE\r\nHAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH INCLUDES SOME COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS OF -82 TO -86C VERY NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SHARP \r\nINCREASE IN INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS MORNING HAS ONLY FOUND THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE TO BE 1003 MB AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47\r\nKT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT A 40-KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE. SFMR WINDS\r\nIN VERY HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS 61 KT. THE BIAS-ADJUSTED\r\nSFMR WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING AS HIGH AS 54 KT...BUT EVEN THOSE\r\nVALUES APPEAR TO BE INFLATED. UNTIL THE AIRCRAFT COMPLETES ITS\r\nMISSION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT BASED ON THE\r\n1003 MB PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/15 KT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE RECON FIXES AND SATELLITE POSITIONS...AND CONTINUITY\r\nWITH PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS\r\nFLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A BROAD MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF\r\nCOAST IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nMOVING EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nINCLUDING FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THIS DEVELOPING\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO WITH\r\nTHE ECMWF BEING THE LEFTMOST OF THE MODELS...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nBEING THE RIGHTMOST OF THE MODELS. GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY\r\nOF THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THOSE\r\nSOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THEY HAVE A STRONGER AND VERTICALLY\r\nDEEPER CYCLONE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS.\r\n\r\nSHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL AND UW-CIMSS\r\nINDICATE BOTH THE DEEP-LAYER AND MID-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES HAVE\r\nDROPPED BELOW 10 KT...WHICH HAS FINALLY ALLOWED DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nDEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TO VALUES BELOW 5 KT BY 24 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS.\r\nAT 72 AND 96 HOURS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED DUE TO\r\nEXPECTED LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA. AFTER 96\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...ISAAC SHOULD BE MOVING BACK OVER THE VERY WARM\r\nWATER BETWEEN CUBA AND FLORIDA. WITH SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nEXPECTED TO BE NEAR 30C AND THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS DEPICTING A\r\nEXTENSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME COMPLETE WITH DUAL OUTFLOW\r\nCHANNELS TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST...STRENGTHENING APPEARS\r\nLIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE\r\nTO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG AND HOW MUCH ISAAC WILL INTERACT WITH\r\nHISPANIOLA AND CUBA...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...\r\nDECAY-SHIPS...AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 15.5N  57.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 15.9N  59.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 16.3N  62.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 16.8N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 17.3N  68.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 18.8N  73.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 21.8N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  27/0600Z 24.8N  80.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MONITORING ISAAC\r\nDURING THE NIGHT REPORTED THAT THE INNER CORE WIND FIELD BECAME\r\nDISORGANIZED AFTER 0600 UTC.  A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER BECAME ELONGATED DURING THIS\r\nTIME....AND THE CENTER IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN FRENCH RADAR DATA\r\nFROM MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n40 KT BASED ON AIRCRAFT-REPORTED WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER.  WHILE\r\nTHE CENTRAL CORE IS DISORGANIZED...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nSTORM IS IMPROVING...AS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE OUTER BAND\r\nFORMING AROUND THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE FEATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/15...AS IT IS UNCLEAR\r\nHOW MUCH OF THE OBSERVED NORTHWARD NUDGE WAS DUE TO RE-FORMATION OF\r\nTHE CENTER. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR OF\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST. THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF ISAAC ALONG 30N LATITUDE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO REMAIN INTACT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nDURING THAT TIME.  THIS EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR FORECASTS\r\nOF THE RIDGE.  THE ECMWF DOES NOT BREAK THE RIDGE...AND THUS\r\nFORECASTS A MORE WESTWARD MOTION NEAR OR SOUTH OF CUBA.  THE\r\nCANADIAN AND NOGAPS HAVE A LARGE BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND TURN ISAAC\r\nNORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA.  THE UKMET HAS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND MOVES THE CYCLONE OVER THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.  THE GFS SHOWS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EAST OF FLORIDA...\r\nBUT FORECASTS ISAAC TO BYPASS THE BREAK AND MOVE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF FLORIDA.  THIS DECREASED-CONFIDENCE PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO\r\nLIE NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SHOW\r\nDRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST OF ISAAC...AND A LACK OF CONVECTION IN\r\nTHIS AREA SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS AIR IS ENTRAINING INTO THE CYCLONE.\r\nOTHERWISE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 48 HR.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE INTENSITY WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW MUCH TIME ISAAC\r\nSPENDS OVER LAND.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...THEN IS REDUCED A LITTLE BASED ON\r\nINCREASED LAND INTERACTION IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nA HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE\r\nDOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE\r\nNONE OF THE FORECAST POINTS ARE OVER LAND...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA FROM 48-96 HR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 15.9N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 16.3N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 16.8N  64.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 17.3N  67.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 17.8N  70.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 19.5N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 22.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 25.5N  81.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012\r\n\r\nSATELLITE...AIRCRAFT...RADAR...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHAT ISAAC HAS A BROAD CENTRAL AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH MULTIPLE\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED.  THE LOWEST PRESSURES ARE IN AN AREA\r\nNEAR GUADELOUPE...WHICH IS USED AS THE CURRENT CENTER SINCE IT HAS\r\nSOME CONTINUITY WITH THE CENTER PREVIOUSLY BEING TRACKED. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MEAN CENTER IS LIKELY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION.  SOME ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER POSITION MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY WHEN THE CENTRAL CORE AGAIN CONSOLIDATES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...ALTHOUGH THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA SUGGESTS THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/19.  OTHER THAN\r\nTHE CENTER POSITION ISSUES...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING DURING THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE TRACK FORECAST. THE\r\nEAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC ALONG\r\n30N LATITUDE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN\r\nINTACT ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DURING THAT TIME. \r\nTHIS EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE OBSERVED POSITION AND\r\nMOTION.  AFTER 48 HR...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...WITH THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS SHIFTING TO THE WEST\r\nAND THE ECMWF TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nA STRONGER RIDGE...AND THUS SHOWS A MORE WESTERLY MOTION THAN THE\r\nOTHER MODELS.  THE 72-120 HR PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.  THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH PORTIONS\r\nOF FLORIDA...IF ANY...COULD BE AFFECTED BY ISAAC.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR TO THE NORTHEAST OF ISAAC...AND A LACK OF\r\nCONVECTION IN THIS AREA SUGGESTS SOME OF THIS AIR IS ENTRAINING\r\nINTO THE CYCLONE AND DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT STRUCTURE...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 HR...FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION\r\nINTO A HURRICANE BY 48 HR SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER\r\n48 HR...THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS THE AMOUNT OF\r\nLAND INTERACTION.  THIS LOW-CONFIDENCE PART OF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ABOVE THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 16.0N  61.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 16.3N  63.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 16.7N  66.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 17.2N  69.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 17.9N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 20.5N  75.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 23.5N  79.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  27/1800Z 26.5N  82.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED ISAAC SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AGO AND FOUND THAT THE CENTER WAS STILL NOT WELL-DEFINED AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 40 KT WAS PROBABLY A LITTLE ON THE HIGH\r\nSIDE.  HOWEVER...DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY\r\nINVESTIGATING THE STORM SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER HAS PROBABLY BECOME\r\nA LITTLE BETTER DEFINED AND THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED A\r\nBIT.  THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION\r\nNEAR AND OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 40 KT.  ISAAC HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nREMAIN WEAK DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE THE PRIMARY\r\nIMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE THE INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT RUNS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL SHOW SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF LAND\r\nINTERACTION BUT ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nAS THE FORMER MODEL SHOWS MUCH LESS STRENGTHENING THAN THE LATTER.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nAFTER A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION CONTINUES BASICALLY WESTWARD OR 270/17.  ISAAC SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF FLORIDA IN SEVERAL DAYS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS LESS OF A\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS SOLUTION.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE ECMWF\r\nTRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MOST OF THE OTHER TRACK\r\nMODELS WHICH WOULD LESSEN THE THREAT TO FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 15.8N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 16.2N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 16.9N  68.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 17.5N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 18.6N  72.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 21.5N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON NORTH COAST OF CUBA\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 24.0N  80.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 27.0N  83.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS\r\nMORNING HAS FOUND A POORLY DEFINED INNER CORE WITH A LARGE AREA OF\r\nLIGHT WINDS AROUND A CENTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO WHAT AN EARLIER\r\nNOAA RESEARCH MISSION INDICATED. RADAR DATA FROM GUADELOUPE AND SAN\r\nJUAN ALSO INDICATE A POORLY DEFINED INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN.\r\nRATHER THAN INITIALIZE THE CENTER OF ISAAC WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...I HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF THE RECON FIXES...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...DATA FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42060...AND A 06Z\r\nCONSENSUS FORECAST POSITION FROM THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET\r\nMODELS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ALSO DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON\r\nDATA FROM THE RECON AIRCRAFT AND NOAA BUOY 42060.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/12 KT. THE 00Z\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET MODELS DID AN OUTSTANDING JOB PREDICTING\r\nTHE RECENT SOUTHWESTWARD JOG OR REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OF ISAAC.\r\nTHOSE SAME MODELS ARE ALSO FORECASTING ISAAC TO MAKE A SHARP JOG TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND THEN STEADY OFF ON A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...\r\nTHE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON\r\nISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE ECMWF MODEL HAS CONTINUED ITS EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...AND EVEN THE LATEST NOGAPS AND\r\nCANADIAN MODEL RUNS HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST ACROSS THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA ARE NOW NO LONGER CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS. DUE\r\nTO LESS SPREAD IN THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT\r\nECMWF HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nTVCA AND TV15.\r\n\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA FROM ST. MAARTEN AT 00Z CONFIRMS THE DRY AIR IN THE\r\nMID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BETWEEN 600 AND 300 MB AS ALLUDED TO\r\nIN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. THIS LAYER OF VERY DRY AIR HAS BEEN\r\nHINDERING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT FOR\r\nTHE PAST 3-4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE DRY AIR MIXING OUT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THE\r\nINNER CORE BECOMING QUITE MOIST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR BEFORE ISAAC INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN THAT THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED...ISAAC IS STILL\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...\r\nTHE THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING WILL BE THE INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA.  HOW MUCH THE\r\nINNER CORE OF ISAAC IS DISRUPTED WHILE OVER LAND WILL DETERMINE\r\nJUST HOW MUCH RE-STRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES\r\nBACK OVER WATER AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 15.3N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 16.2N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 16.9N  68.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 17.8N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 19.1N  73.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 21.8N  77.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 24.4N  80.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  28/0600Z 27.4N  83.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ISAAC HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS DEVELOPING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER.  HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISAAC\r\nREMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS\r\nROTATING AROUND A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nCENTER IN AIRCRAFT DATA IS NORTH OF THE CENTER SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  A COMBINATION OF FLIGHT-LEVEL...DROPSONDE...AND\r\nSFMR WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NEAR 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF ISAAC IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN 12\r\nHR AGO.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD MOTION AT\r\nABOUT 13 KT.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nISAAC SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR...\r\nSTEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD APPROACH A WEAKNESS OR BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER FLORIDA\r\nAND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON CURRENT POSITION\r\nAND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THOUGH...THAT NEAR THE 96\r\nHR POINT THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN\r\nFLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA...AND AT 120 HR THEY ARE BETWEEN\r\nNORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THUS...\r\nSIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO\r\nFLORIDA.\r\n\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE\r\nCYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE\r\nSYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER\r\nHISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING...FOLLOWED BY\r\nLITTLE CHANGE OF STRENGTH FROM 48-72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DUE TO\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK BEING A LITTLE FARTHER FROM THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA THAN BEFORE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IT IS WELL\r\nABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 15.6N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 16.1N  67.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 16.9N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 18.0N  72.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 19.3N  74.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 22.0N  78.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 24.5N  81.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  28/1200Z 27.5N  84.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n\r\nLOCATING THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC THIS AFTERNOON. \r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE HAS A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED OUTER\r\nCIRCULATION...THE INNER CORE HAS NOT CONSOLIDATED AND THERE ARE\r\nSTILL MULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER. \r\nHIGHLIGHTING THE ISSUE ARE DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42059...WHICH HAS\r\nREPORTED 25-30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT A POSITION SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE LATEST HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIXES...WHICH IN TURN WERE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER TRACKED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS A BLEND OF ALL THESE FEATURES.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14.  THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...AND THIS PART OF THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTO BE SOMEWHAT FARTHER WEST THAN BEFORE.  THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR\r\nHAS MADE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT...SHOWING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nINTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY DAY 5.  DESPITE THE GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT...THE HWRF AND CANADIAN MODELS STILL CALL FOR ISAAC\r\nTO MOVE UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THUS... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY\r\nREMAINS ABOUT THE THREAT ISAAC POSES TO FLORIDA AND OTHER PORTIONS\r\nOF THE GULF COAST.  THE 96-120 HR POINTS HAVE BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nWESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC SUGGESTS THAT ONLY SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION...WHICH COULD OCCUR IF THE\r\nCYCLONE DEVELOPS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE.  WHILE THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS IT...ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nABOUT THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL IN HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 24-36 HR. \r\nAFTER THAT...PASSAGE OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD CAUSE SOME\r\nWEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...AND THE CURRENT 120 HR INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE\r\nIF THE GLOBAL MODEL UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS VERIFY.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS\r\nSTRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE NOAA G-IV JET AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nARE CURRENTLY CONDUCTING A SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND\r\nISAAC.  THE DATA WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR THE 0000 UTC MODEL RUNS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 16.0N  67.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 16.6N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 17.5N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 18.9N  74.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 20.3N  76.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 23.0N  80.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 25.5N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 28.5N  85.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT\r\nISAAC HAS STRENGTHENED ONLY SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING.  FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nAND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS NEAR 40 KT.  THE STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE\r\nFAIRLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND...IF THE INNER CORE BECOMES\r\nBETTER DEFINED...HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS LONG AS IT\r\nREMAINS OVER WATER.  HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER SOUTHWESTERN HISPANIOLA IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THIS\r\nWOULD HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION.  A LITTLE LATER ON...LAND\r\nINTERACTIONS WITH EASTERN CUBA WOULD ALSO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION\r\nOR CAUSE WEAKENING.  ISAAC WILL LIKELY RESTRENGTHEN WHEN IT MOVES\r\nOVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN THE\r\nLATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTIONS AT 3-5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS CAUSING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ISAAC SHOULD TURN TOWARD A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nHAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...PRIMARILY DUE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE LATEST GFS\r\nTRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SOMEWHAT FASTER BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON BUOY\r\nAND SHIP DATA.  IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK\r\nBECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A\r\nLARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.\r\n\r\nA SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION BY THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT HAS\r\nBEEN CONDUCTED TO COLLECT ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS IN THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OF ISAAC.  THESE DATA WILL BE ASSIMILATED\r\nINTO THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND SHOULD IMPROVE\r\nTHE ACCURACY OF THEIR FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY CYCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 16.7N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 17.5N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 18.8N  73.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 20.2N  75.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 21.8N  77.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 24.8N  82.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 27.5N  85.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 30.0N  88.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ISAAC REMAINS\r\nPOORLY ORGANIZED. WHILE THE 850-MB FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER WAS WELL\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED SURFACE CENTER LOCATION...\r\nDROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CENTER REMAINS FARTHER\r\nNORTH. FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE\r\nINTENSITY AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHILE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND A\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. GIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE INNER CORE...ONLY LIMITED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE\r\nTHE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT TIME LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST AS ISAAC INTERACTS\r\nWITH PORTIONS OF CUBA. LATER IN THE PERIOD...ISAAC SHOULD HAVE AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL AT DAYS\r\n4 AND 5. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY PREDICTIONS AT 3 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN\r\n275/13...AS THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nRECENT FIXES AND CONTINUITY. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nBE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RESUMPTION OF A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF ISAAC WEAKENS. THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH DAY 4...WHEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH\r\nIS SHOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE MISSISSIPPI\r\nVALLEY. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AS THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED EASTWARD\r\nTOWARD THE REST OF THE MODELS THIS CYCLE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTHWARD IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS DUE TO\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS THEN BLENDED BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK BY 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF ON THE LEFT AND THE GFS AND TVCA CONSENSUS ON THE RIGHT. \r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES\r\nIN THE INITIAL LOCATION AND THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THE FACT THAT\r\nISAAC HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH IT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 16.1N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 17.0N  71.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 18.8N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 20.6N  76.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 22.4N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 25.0N  82.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 28.0N  86.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 30.5N  87.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012\r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT\r\nISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nWHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ELONGATED EAST-TO-WEST WITH\r\nMULTIPLE EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA...THE LARGE CENTRAL AREA OF\r\nLIGHT WINDS HAS SHRUNK AS THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED\r\n66 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 850 MB NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...ALONG\r\nWITH SFMR BIAS-CORRECTED WIND ESTIMATES NEAR 50 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE 12Z POSITION USED A MEAN CENTER...WHICH RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT.  SINCE THEN...ISAAC APPEARS TO HAVE ACQUIRED A STRONGER\r\nNORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT ISAAC SHOULD MOVED NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHR...STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES NEAR\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN ISAAC AND THE TROUGH...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH DAY 5.  THE GFS HAS A STRONGER TROUGH...WHICH\r\nRESULTS IN A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD AFTER 72 HR...AND THUS THE LATTER PORTION\r\nOF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED EASTWARD.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED...THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC STILL\r\nDOES NOT FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION DESPITE A VERY FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.  THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN EARLIER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT ISAAC COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES\r\nHISPANIOLA.  LAND INTERACTION WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY FROM 24-48\r\nHR...AND THIS PART OF THE FORECAST MAY NEED SOME ADJUSTMENT AFTER\r\nIT IS SEEN WHAT STRUCTURE ISAAC HAS AFTER CROSSING HISPANIOLA. \r\nISAAC SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH THE FORECAST\r\nSHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 16.3N  70.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 17.4N  72.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 19.2N  75.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 20.9N  77.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 22.3N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 25.0N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 28.0N  85.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 31.0N  86.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nAND MORE CIRCULAR INNER CIRCULATION.  THE MAXIMUM 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 70 KT...THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR\r\nSURFACE WIND ESTIMATE HAS BEEN 55 KT...AND THE MINIMUM REPORTED\r\nPRESSURE HAS BEEN 994 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.  ONE SIGN OF ONGOING ORGANIZATION\r\nISSUES...HOWEVER...IS THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE OF THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION...WHICH HAS WANED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nISAAC HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/14.  DURING THE FIRST 48-60 HR...THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MADE AN EASTWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. \r\nTHIS WAS LED BY THE GFS...WHICH CHANGED TO A TRACK INTO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. \r\nTHE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE NOW ON THE LEFT EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE...\r\nSHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA.  THIS PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS.  THERE REMAINS A SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AFTER 48\r\nHR.  THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER\r\nLANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF\r\nSHOW A NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND STRONGEST WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER\r\nARE MOVING INLAND AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON THIS AND THE CURRENT LACK\r\nOF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE INTENSITY FROM 12-48 HR WILL BE\r\nDETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION.  THE CURRENT FORECAST\r\nIS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT ISAAC WILL REMAIN OVER LAND LONG\r\nENOUGH TO ALLOW GRADUAL WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...ANY CHANGE IN THE\r\nTRACK THAT ALLOWS IT TO REMAIN OVER WATER FOR A LONGER TIME COULD\r\nALLOW IT TO BE STRONGER THAN FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HR...THE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ISAAC TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  CONVERSELY...A LONGER TRACK OVER\r\nLAND MAY DISRUPT ISAAC ENOUGH TO BE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF\r\nTHESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS MAY HAVE TO BE\r\nUPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WATCH IF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED\r\nUPWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 17.2N  71.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 18.7N  73.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 20.7N  76.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 22.4N  78.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST OF CUBA\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 23.9N  80.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 26.5N  84.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 29.5N  86.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 32.0N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 24 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF ISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nIMPROVE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INFRARED AND MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT AN EYE IS FORMING...AND THIS IS THE\r\nBASIS FOR INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 60 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12 BASED ON RECON AND MICROWAVE\r\nFIXES. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK FORCAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT THROUGH 48 HOURS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. RECENT UPPER-AIR DATA AND NOAA G-IV\r\nAIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATE THE TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS FLORIDA HAS SHIFTED TO A\r\nPOSITION JUST EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE 18Z GFS MODEL...\r\nWHICH SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF ITS 12Z TRACK...CAPTURED THIS FARTHER\r\nEAST POSITION...WHEREAS THE 18Z UKMET AND 12Z ECMWF KEPT THE TROUGH\r\nACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA VALID AT 00Z THIS EVENING.\r\nBASED ON THE GFS VERIFYING BETTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS AT 00Z THIS\r\nEVENING...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT.\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD\r\nACROSS FLORIDA AND KEEPING ISAAC ON A MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE\r\nMODELS AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nWITH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IMPROVING...THERE IS STILL THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT ISAAC COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE\r\nREACHING HAITI TONIGHT. THE INTENSITY FROM 12-24 HOURS WILL BE\r\nDETERMINED BY THE AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HAITI AND EASTERN\r\nCUBA. AFTER THAT...THE SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS ENOUGH TO PLACE ISAAC OVER WATER LONGER THAN WHAT WAS INDICATED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST REQUIRED AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST. THE EASTWARD TRACK SHIFT AND A LARGER INITIAL\r\nAND FORECAST WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH ARE WHAT NECESSITATED THE\r\nCHANGES IN THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR FLORIDA.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 17.7N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 19.4N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 21.7N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 23.4N  79.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 24.9N  81.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 27.1N  84.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 30.0N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 32.5N  86.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF ISAAC HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY INTACT AFTER MOVING\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI OVERNIGHT. BEFORE THE\r\nCENTER MOVED INLAND...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTED THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAD PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. ASSUMING THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENED A LITTLE AFTER ENCOUNTERING THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS\r\nOUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ISAAC WILL MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nFOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS OR SO...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE NHC FORECAST THIS\r\nCYCLE...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE TVCA\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 96 HOURS. BY DAY 5 THERE IS SOME\r\nDISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER ISAAC WILL TURN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF\r\nTHE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE GFDL OR\r\nBE LEFT BEHIND AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF AND HWRF. THE NHC DAY 5 POINT\r\nIS BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE HAS FARED RATHER WELL AFTER MOVING ACROSS\r\nHAITI...AND THAT THE TRACK FORECAST HAS ONLY MINIMAL INTERACTION\r\nWITH CUBA...THE INTENSITY FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ISAAC\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM AFTERWARD.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE\r\nWARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST\r\nOF FLORIDA AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 19.0N  73.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 20.4N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 22.2N  77.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 23.8N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 25.0N  81.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 27.7N  84.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 30.5N  86.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/0600Z 32.5N  86.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012\r\n\r\nISAAC HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED BY ITS PASSAGE ACROSS HAITI.  THE\r\nLAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nSHOWED THAT THE CENTER PRESSURE HAD RISEN TO 998 MB...AND THAT THE\r\nSTRONGEST FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 60-70 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THESE\r\nWINDS SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  THE CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN IS DISORGANIZED...WITH LARGE CONVECTIVE BANDS SOUTH OF\r\nHISPANIOLA AND LITTLE CONVECTION CURRENTLY NEAR THE CENTER.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISAAC IS AT THE EASTERN END OF A LARGE AND\r\nELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nSEA...WHICH IS CREATING A LARGE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL\r\nWINDS WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS JOGGED WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/15.  IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AS A UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES\r\nSOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION...\r\nCOMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF ISAAC...SHOULD STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA AND THE\r\nFLORIDA KEYS DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS INDICATED BY THE TIGHTLY-\r\nCLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN MORE\r\nNORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN\r\nPOTENTIAL LANDFALL LOCATIONS BETWEEN THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE\r\nAND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE FINAL\r\nLANDFALL POINT.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS IN CALLING FOR LANDFALL\r\nIN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 72-96 HR.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF\r\nLAND INTERACTION...SOME WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE CURRENT LACK OF\r\nCONVECTION.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AS THE CENTER MOVES\r\nAWAY FROM LAND...WOULD SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER 12 HR. \r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 48 HR...THEN CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AFTER LANDFALL ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n  \r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST NECESSITATES THE ISSUANCE OF ADDITIONAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 20.1N  74.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 21.7N  76.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 23.3N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 24.7N  81.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 25.9N  83.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 28.5N  85.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 31.5N  86.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/1200Z 33.0N  86.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF\r\nEASTERN CUBA.  THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...\r\nWITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS 50 N MI OR MORE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS\r\nREPORTED 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WITH RELIABLE-LOOKING SFMR SURFACE WIND DATA NEAR 50 KT. \r\nBASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 997 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND\r\nCUBAN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/18.  ISAAC IS CURRENTLY PART OF A\r\nLARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COVERING THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AND OCEAN AREAS.  THIS LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA HAS A SECOND VORTICITY CENTER BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE\r\nCAYMAN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR ISAAC AND THIS CENTER\r\nWILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND EACH OTHER.  BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION...\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS ISAAC MOVING NORTHWESTWARD FOR 12 HR OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHE STORM COULD MAKE A SHARPER TURN THAN FORECAST...AS THE UKMET IS\r\nSHOWING AN ALMOST DUE WEST MOTION BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA\r\nNEAR THE 36 HR POINT.  THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL\r\nLIES TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE BULK OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 36 HR...ISAAC SHOULD BREAK FREE OF OR\r\nABSORB THE REST OF THE LOW...WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST\r\nBECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nSTORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH AN EVENTUAL LANDFALL\r\nALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72-96 HR.  WHERE THIS MIGHT OCCUR\r\nIS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE SPREAD BETWEEN\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  THIS PART\r\nOF THE TRACK FORECAST LIES IN THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nNEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nA COMBINATION OF LIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND\r\nINTERACTION SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 12\r\nHR.  AFTER THAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nREACHES OPEN WATER.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW ISAAC TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN\r\nINTO A HURRICANE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.  SHOULD THIS VERIFY AND SHOULD\r\nISAAC ESTABLISH AN INNER CORE...THE CYCLONE COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nSTRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF ISAAC DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND THE FACT THAT ISAAC HAS A LARGE\r\nAREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 21.3N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 22.6N  78.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 24.1N  80.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 25.2N  82.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 26.5N  84.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 29.0N  86.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 31.5N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/1800Z 33.5N  85.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA FROM CUBA SHOW THAT ISAAC IS MOVING\r\nPARALLEL TO...BUT OFFSHORE OF...THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA.\r\nTHE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY STRONGER WINDS\r\nDURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FLIGHT AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED REMAINS 50 KT.  HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS\r\nINCREASED IN A BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS AND ISAAC MAY BE ON THE VERGE OF STRENGTHENING.\r\nTHE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE CYCLONE\r\nAROUND 0600 UTC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15 KT.  ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE ON\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO BETWEEN A LARGE LOW/MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING\r\nTHIS TIME AND SHOWS A TRACK OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NEAR OR\r\nOVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...ISAAC WILL BE NEARING\r\nTHE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT LARGE\r\nDIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MODELS AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME.  THE ECMWF RECURVES ISAAC AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE THE GFS SLOWS ISAAC\r\nDOWN AS THE TROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM AND THE MODEL THEN TURNS\r\nTHE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS BIFURCATION IS ALSO SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT\r\nECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLES WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL NUMBER OF MEMBERS\r\nSHOWING RECURVATURE VERSUS A CONTINUE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  SINCE THE UNCERTAINTY IS LARGE AND EITHER\r\nOF THESE SCENARIOS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nLIES BETWEEN THEM.  THE UPDATED TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED WESTWARD...BUT IT REMAINS EAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TO RETAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ISAAC MOVES OVER\r\nTHE WARM WATERS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND EASTERN GULF.  STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN THE CENTER REACHES THE FLORIDA KEYS.\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE MORE AGGRESSIVE HWRF MODEL.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE\r\nSIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SINCE LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...IT\r\nIS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC WILL MAKE\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 22.1N  77.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 23.4N  79.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 24.6N  81.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR FLORIDA KEYS\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 25.8N  83.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 27.2N  85.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 29.5N  86.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 31.5N  86.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  31/0000Z 34.0N  86.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012\r\n \r\nWHILE THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISAAC REMAINS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNIMPRESSIVE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION LIMITED TO A RATHER SMALL AREA\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. PEAK 850-MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 69 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ADJUST TO AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS THE VALUE FOR THIS ADVISORY. AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS ALSO DROPPED A LITTLE...\r\nTO 995 MB. ISAAC STILL APPEARS TO BE BATTLING THE EFFECTS OF SOME\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...\r\nAS SEEN IN UPPER-AIR DATA FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST. ASIDE FROM\r\nTHIS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND\r\nINTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE \r\nVERY WARM...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nTO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SHOWS A LITTLE SLOWER RATE OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...TRENDING TOWARD THE\r\nLATEST CYCLE OF GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/16...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nAS THE UPPER-LOW TO THE WEST OF ISAAC RETREATS WESTWARD AND THE\r\nCLOSED LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LIFTS NORTHWARD...ISAAC\r\nWILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE. MOST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...NO\r\nLONGER SHOW ISAAC RECURVING AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING\r\nEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ONE CAMP OF GUIDANCE...\r\nINCLUDING THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS THE SHORTWAVE\r\nBYPASSES ISAAC COMPLETELY. THE ECMWF AND GFDL SHOW HAVE MORE OF A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND SHOW ISAAC TURNING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE\r\nEASTERN GULF COAST. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT WAS MADE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF...SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND NORTHWARD TURN AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE\r\nLOW...AND IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ISAAC\r\nWILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE\r\nTRACK MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 23.1N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 24.2N  80.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 25.5N  83.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 26.9N  84.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 28.1N  86.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 30.2N  88.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 32.0N  88.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  31/0600Z 34.0N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE AND IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nGRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF\r\nINNER CORE DEVELOPMENT WITH INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR AND OVER THE\r\nCENTER...AND A PARTIAL EYEWALL IS IN EVIDENCE ON RADAR IMAGERY.  THE\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN AND\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLES OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS HELD AT 55 KT PENDING OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THAT SHOULD BE IN THE CENTER SHORTLY. \r\nISAAC CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AS THE CYCLONE\r\nTRAVERSES THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 HAS BECOME PROBLEMATIC.  DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE NORTH OF THE GULF COAST IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER THERE IS\r\nA LARGE SPREAD AMONG THE MORE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS.  FOR EXAMPLE...\r\nTHE ECMWF FORECAST IS ABOUT 300 N MI EAST OF THE GFS SOLUTION AT DAY\r\n3.  SINCE THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.  THIS REQUIRES AN EXTENSION OF THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD\r\nALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS\r\nGREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK SINCE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 23.9N  80.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 25.0N  82.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 26.1N  84.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 27.4N  86.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 28.5N  87.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 30.5N  89.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 32.5N  89.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  31/1200Z 34.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES HAVE SUGGESTED THAT THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WAS BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AN AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ISAAC THIS AFTERNOON HAVE\r\nFOUND THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO STRENGTHENING OF THE STORM. \r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED WINDS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT. \r\nTHERE IS STILL A WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKELY AS ISAAC\r\nMOVES OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND POSSIBLY OVER THE HIGHER HEAT\r\nCONTENT OF THE LOOP CURRENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE...AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.    \r\n\r\nISAAC HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS PROJECTIONS AND\r\nCENTER FIXES YIELD A 6- TO 12-HOUR AVERAGED MOTION OF 295/15.   THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE CHALLENGING.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THE TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT\r\nAND HEADING FOR A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nARE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AS TO\r\nWHERE ISAAC MIGHT CROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE U.K. MET.\r\nOFFICE AND ECMWF MODELS ARE ABOUT 300 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE GFS\r\nAT LANDFALL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE GFS ENSMEBLE  \r\nMEMBERS ARE EAST OF THE GFS CONTROL TRACK.  BECAUSE OF THE WIDE\r\nMODEL SPREAD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST UNCERTAINTY.  \r\n \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT\r\nSIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE\r\nOF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT THIS TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 24.2N  82.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 25.1N  83.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 26.3N  85.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 27.7N  87.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 28.9N  88.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 30.7N  89.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 32.5N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  31/1800Z 34.5N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 26 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THE AREA OF COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF ISAAC.  HOWEVER...THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION IN RADAR DATA FROM KEY WEST\r\nTHIS EVENING. IN FACT...THE AIRCRAFT FIXES HAVE BEEN NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SEEN IN BOTH SATELLITE\r\nAND RADAR IMAGERY.  AN EARLIER SHIP OBSERVATION AND SFMR\r\nMEASUREMENTS OF 50-55 KT SUPPORTED INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55\r\nKT ON THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE AIRCRAFT\r\nHAS NOT FOUND ANY STRONGER WINDS SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED.  THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...WARM\r\nWATERS...AND A CONDUCIVE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FAVOR STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE\r\nAND LARGE WIND FIELD COULD CONTINUE TO BE IMPEDING FACTORS FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND RADAR CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT ISAAC JOGGED WESTWARD\r\nAND SLOWED DOWN THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE LONGER TERM MOTION IS\r\n285/12 KT.  THE MODELS SHOW ISAAC TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO\r\nA BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON\r\nTHIS TURN...THERE IS AN UNUSUALLY LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS.  THE SPREAD OF LANDFALL LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF COAST RANGES FROM THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE\r\nALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER WITH THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS NEAR THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nENVELOPE.  OVERALL...THE CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BEEN MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AND NEAR THE\r\nHFIP MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  BECAUSE OF THE VERY LARGE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...THERE CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST UNCERTAINTY.\r\n \r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK DUE TO FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FACT THAT\r\nSIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 24.2N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 25.2N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 26.5N  86.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 27.9N  88.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 28.9N  89.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 30.6N  90.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 33.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  01/0000Z 36.0N  91.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX BEFORE 06Z SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER OF ISAAC\r\nHAD REFORMED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT THE\r\nPRESSURE HAD FALLEN TO 990 MB. HOWEVER...NO STRONGER WINDS WERE\r\nOBSERVED BY THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CONTINUED LACK OF INNER CORE STRUCTURE...\r\nTHE LARGE CIRCULATION...AND SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR NEAR THE OUTFLOW\r\nLAYER DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTHWEST OF ISSAC SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...STEADIER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CIRCULATION\r\nCONSOLIDATES AND AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM ISAAC. THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO OR A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nRECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12...AS ISAAC\r\nIS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS ISAAC MOVES\r\nINTO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INDUCED\r\nBY A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS PRETTY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS\r\nOR SO...AND THROUGH THAT TIME THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION. WHILE THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...\r\nTHE ECMWF AND UKMET HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE AND NOW TAKE\r\nISAAC TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...\r\nGFDL...AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW LESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND BRING\r\nTHE CYCLONE INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD BY ABOUT A DEGREE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND\r\nAND LIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO BE GREATER THAN USUAL AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THIS UNCERTAINTY...AND THE FACT THAT SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS\r\nEXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON\r\nTHE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...NEW WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. THE\r\nINITIAL 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE SOUTHEAST\r\nSEMICIRCLE GIVEN CONTINUING OBSERVATIONS OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nCONDITIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 25.2N  84.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 26.2N  85.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 27.6N  87.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 28.8N  89.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 29.7N  90.1W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 31.2N  91.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 34.0N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  01/0600Z 38.0N  91.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1000 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE TAMPA AND KEY WEST DOPPLER RADARS...AND FROM AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AND NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THE INNER\r\nCORE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF ISAAC HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS OCCASIONALLY APPEARED\r\nIN THESE DATA...BUT IT HAS BEEN UNABLE TO PERSIST. THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO AROUND 987-988 MB...BUT THIS HAS NOT\r\nRESULTED IN ANY INCREASE IN THE WIND SPEEDS. THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nOF 55 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THE RECON\r\nWIND DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS\r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA\r\nINDICATE 20-40 METER HEIGHT RISES AT THE 500 MB AND 400 MB LEVELS\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S....WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISAAC HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nSLIGHTLY. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT WITH A SPREAD OF MORE THAN\r\n500 N MI BETWEEN THE GFS ON THE LEFT AND THE ECMWF ON THE RIGHT.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 3-5 IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT THIS IS A LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE FORECAST AT THOSE TIME PERIODS.\r\n\r\nTHE LACK OF STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO TO BE DUE TO THE\r\nLARGER-THAN-AVERAGE WIND RADII...WHICH HAVE YET TO CONTRACT\r\nINWARD...ALONG WITH THE PERIODIC ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR\r\nFROM THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE INTO THE INNER-CORE REGION. UNTIL THE\r\nDRY AIR MIXES OUT...EROSION OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL\r\nLIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL ISAAC APPROACHES THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AT THAT TIME...INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM\r\nTHE GULF COAST LAND MASS IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE\r\nIN CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH COULD ENABLE THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL IV15.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 26.1N  85.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 27.1N  86.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 28.3N  88.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 29.3N  89.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 30.2N  90.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 31.9N  91.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 35.2N  92.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  01/1200Z 39.3N  91.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n400 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012\r\n \r\nTHE MUCH ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY\r\nSTARTED BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT AND FROM NEARBY NOAA BUOY 42003. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nDECREASED BY AT LEAST 7 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE HIGHEST\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE BEEN 74 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT AND THE HIGHEST BIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR WINDS ARE NEAR 58 KT.\r\nTHESE DATA SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT.\r\n \r\nISAAC WOBBLED WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10. THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT\r\n36-48 HOURS. AFTER 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nDIVERGENT ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC\r\nREGION...FOLLOWED BY A RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF...OUR MOST RELIABLE MODELS... NOW HAVE VERY SIMILAR\r\nSOLUTIONS THROUGH DAY 5...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nBETWEEN THOSE TWO MODELS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE ISAAC HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST CLOUD\r\nPATTERN OVER THE CENTER ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING EYE IN RECON DATA.\r\nSATELLITE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB. RECON WIND DATA INDICATE THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS ALSO\r\nPULLED INWARD TO ABOUT 30 N MI. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...DRY MID-LEVEL AIR\r\nSTILL LURKS JUST TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CDO FEATURE...\r\nWHICH COULD BE ENTRAINED INTO THE INNER CORE AT ANY TIME AND\r\nDISRUPT THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF DRY\r\nAIR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE \r\nRIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS DUE TO THE VERY WARM WATERS THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER AND THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW REGIME THAT ISAAC IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY 24 HOURS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER...IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. THE SLOW FORWARD\r\nSPED OF AROUND 5 KT AFTER LANDFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN AND\r\nFLOOD SITUATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND LOWER\r\nMISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 26.4N  86.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 27.4N  87.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 28.6N  89.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 29.5N  90.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 30.3N  90.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 32.2N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 35.9N  92.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  01/1800Z 38.7N  89.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1000 PM CDT MON AUG 27 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ISAAC HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW A STRONG\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION...PERHAPS THE BEGINNING OF AN EYEWALL...WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...\r\nAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE BAND WAS OPEN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS DISPLACED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE ROTATION SEEN IN SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AND THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAVE NOT REPORTED\r\nWINDS ANY HIGHER THAN WHAT WAS MEASURED LATE THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nTHEREFORE...ISAAC REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nISAAC CONTINUES TO HAVE DIFFICULTLY MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE LIKELY DUE TO SOME DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT.  OTHERWISE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  ISAAC IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT AND NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nISAAC HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ISAAC SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WHERE A BREAK IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED.  AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nBYPASSES ISAAC IN A DAY OR SO...SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ISAAC TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INLAND.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT\r\nMOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SLIDES\r\nEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.  THE NEW\r\nNHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS BETWEEN\r\nTHE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nISAAC IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND\r\nARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\nTHE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO\r\nSPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 27.1N  87.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 28.0N  88.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 29.1N  89.2W   80 KT  90 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 29.9N  90.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 30.7N  90.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 33.3N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 37.5N  91.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z 40.5N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n400 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED A LITTLE MORE...BUT SO FAR...THE\r\nMAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS STILL DO NOT\r\nQUITE SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 60 KT PENDING ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS.  ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER BROAD AND\r\nRELATIVELY FLAT...RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nINNER CORE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND\r\nSTRENGTHENING MIGHT BE IMMINENT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM...BUT\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE.  THE LATTER IS\r\nPRESUMABLY DUE TO A CONTINUED INTRUSION OF DRY AIR INTO THE CORE\r\nREGION.  THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN\r\nIN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE STORM HAS ONLY ABOUT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nMOVING INLAND.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST SLIGHTLY\r\nLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS WOBBLED\r\nON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nBELIEVED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER...AND THE LONGER-TERM MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS ABOUT 305/10.  THE CURRENT AND FORECAST STEERING REGIME\r\nARE BASICALLY THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ISAAC IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  LATER ON...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AS IT MOVES\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.\r\n \r\nISAAC IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND\r\nARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. \r\nFOR THIS REASON...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER\r\nLOCATION.  THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO\r\nEXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 27.5N  88.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 28.5N  89.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 29.5N  90.1W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 30.3N  90.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 31.4N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 34.5N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 38.0N  91.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z 40.5N  87.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":30,"Date":"2012-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 976 MB SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IT HAS LEVELED OFF OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OBSERVED HAS BEEN 89 KT...\r\nWHICH EQUATES TO A SURFACE WIND OF ABOUT 71 KT. HOWEVER...\r\nBIAS-ADJUSTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS HAVE ONLY BEEN AROUND 60-62 KT...\r\nWHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH DROPSONDE BOUNDARY LAYER-DERIVED SURFACE\r\nWINDS. AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60\r\nKT...WHICH IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ISAAC HAS BEEN WOBBLING\r\nIN A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 310/09 KT. THERE REMAINS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.    \r\nISAAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nNEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...\r\nACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED. AS THE \r\nRIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...ISAAC IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT\r\nTURNS NORTHWARD ON DAY 4...AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO\r\nVALLEY REGION ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES JUST\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TCVA.\r\n\r\nMID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CONTINUES TO PLAGUE ISAAC. AS SOON AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE DEVELOPS INNER-CORE CONVECTION AND THE APPEARANCE OF AN\r\nEYE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE CONVECTION ERODES DUE TO\r\nTHE DRY AIR. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME...ISAAC ONLY HAS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS FOR\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH ONLY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS\r\nMADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nISAAC IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND\r\nARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.\r\nFOR THIS REASON...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER\r\nLOCATION.  THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO\r\nEXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 28.1N  88.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 28.8N  89.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 29.7N  90.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 30.5N  91.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 32.0N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 35.0N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 38.5N  90.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z 41.0N  86.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":31,"Date":"2012-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n400 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHTS INTO ISAAC...WHEN A BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR\r\nWIND OF 64 KT WAS OBSERVED...THE RADAR AND SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. ON THIS BASIS...THE ESTIMATED \r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WIGGLES AND WOBBLES IN THE AIRCRAFT\r\nFIXES YIELDS A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 310/07 KT. ISAAC\r\nREMAINS ON TRACK...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nEARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. ISSAC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS\r\nORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG 30N LATITUDE. BECAUSE OF THIS WEAKNESS...\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISAAC SLOWING DOWN SOME MORE.\r\nAFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK IN BY ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS...ALBEIT TO VARYING DEGREES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO TURN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE IT TURNS\r\nNORTHWARD BY DAY 4...AND THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER\r\nGREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY DAY 5. IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HAD A LEFTWARD BIAS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AT 12\r\nHOURS...FAVORABLE WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME SUGGEST THAT ISAAC COULD STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE MORE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE\r\nUNUSUALLY LARGE WIND FIELD...RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nISAAC REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. A DANGEROUS STORM\r\nSURGE...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND STRONG WINDS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN\r\nGULF COAST. FOR THIS REASON...IT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE\r\nEXACT CENTER LOCATION. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS\r\nALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY\r\nREGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 28.7N  89.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 29.4N  90.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 30.3N  91.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 31.3N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 33.0N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 36.0N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 39.0N  90.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z 41.5N  86.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":32,"Date":"2012-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nISAAC PASSED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST\r\nLOUISIANA AROUND 2345 UTC.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE CENTER HAS\r\nWOBBLED WESTWARD AND HAS MOVED BACK OVER WATER. A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION HAS RECENTLY RESUMED AND A SECOND LANDFALL SHOULD OCCUR\r\nLATER TONIGHT NEAR GRAND ISLE.  DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY FALL AND IS NOW 968 MB. THE AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT HAS MEASURED A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nOF 96 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF AROUND 65 KT.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS THE CENTER\r\nMOVES ACROSS THE BAYOUS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.  STEADY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES\r\nFARTHER INLAND.\r\n \r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH THE WOBBLES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LONGER\r\nTERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/7 KT.  ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SLIDES EASTWARD.  AS THE RIDGE MOVES\r\nACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE ISAAC TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF RUNS...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE SLOW MOTION OF ISAAC...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG\r\nWINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST.  THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS\r\nALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY\r\nREGION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nNATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES INDICATE THAT STORM SURGE HEIGHTS\r\nOF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION\r\nOF ONSHORE FLOW IN THESE AREAS...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nHIGH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 29.0N  89.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 29.6N  90.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 30.3N  91.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 31.5N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 33.2N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 37.0N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 40.0N  91.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z 41.5N  86.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":33,"Date":"2012-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n400 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS...AIRCRAFT AND\r\nRADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ISAAC MADE A SECOND LANDFALL\r\nNEAR PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND OVER\r\nSOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE EYE IS OPEN OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...AND THE RADAR PRESENTATION HAS BECOME MORE\r\nASYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE RADAR\r\nREFLECTIVITIES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME STRONGER OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS QUITE LOW.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT...BUT WEAKENING IS IMMINENT NOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEGUN TO MOVE OVER LAND.  FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE\r\nOF WEAKENING THAN THAT GIVEN BY THE INLAND DECAY MODEL DUE TO THE\r\nSWAMPY TERRAIN THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE. \r\n\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEGUN TO MOVE RECENTLY...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 300/7.  ISAAC IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT...ISAAC SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL ISAAC SHOULD MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED ANTICYLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO...THERE IS A CONTINUED THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA.\r\n\r\nNATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAUGES INDICATE THAT STORM SURGE HEIGHTS\r\nOF 6 TO 10 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION\r\nOF ONSHORE FLOW IN THESE AREAS...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nHIGH THROUGH TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 29.2N  90.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 29.7N  91.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 30.5N  91.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 31.8N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 33.6N  93.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 37.5N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 39.5N  90.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z 40.5N  86.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":34,"Date":"2012-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1000 AM CDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ISAAC IS INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA NEAR HOUMA.\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED AN IMPRESSIVE RADAR SIGNATURE...WHICH\r\nINCLUDES A RAGGED 40-NMI DIAMETER EYE. CURVED CONVECTIVE RAINBANDS\r\nHAVE INCREASED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND DOPPLER RADAR\r\nVELOCITIES OF NEAR 80 KT OVER WATER SUPPORT KEEPING ISAAC AS A\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE FOR THIS ADVISORY. SIMILAR DOPPLER VELOCITIES\r\nOVER LAND AND OVER LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN SUGGEST WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 80\r\nKT COULD OCCUR INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THIS\r\nAFTERNOON. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...HOWEVER...ISAAC IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION BY THURSDAY NIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/5. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nNORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY 36 AND 48\r\nHOURS...RESPECTIVELY. BY 72 HOURS...ISAAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHEN IT WILL BE CAUGHT UP IN\r\nWEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO INDICATIONS IN\r\nANY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT ISAAC WILL TAP INTO ANY\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY SOURCES THAT COULD RESULT IN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS JUST EAST\r\nOF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSINCE ISAAC IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...\r\nTHERE WILL BE A PROLONGED THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINS OVER\r\nTHE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nNATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES INDICATE THAT STORM SURGE HEIGHTS\r\nOF 6 TO 8 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION\r\nOF ONSHORE FLOW IN THESE AREAS...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nHIGH THROUGH TODAY.\r\n \r\nA SPECIAL THANKS TO THE CREWS OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS WHO FLEW A TOTAL OF 34 HAZARDOUS MISSIONS INTO\r\nISAAC...WHICH RESULTED IN AN IMPRESSIVE TOTAL OF 95 CENTER FIXES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 29.6N  90.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 30.2N  91.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 31.2N  92.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 32.8N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 34.6N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 38.0N  92.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 40.0N  89.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1200Z 41.0N  85.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":35,"Date":"2012-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n400 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nISAAC CONTINUES TO TRUDGE SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS  310/5\r\nKT...BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SLIDELL AND FT. POLK\r\nLOUISIANA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nEVENTALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BY DAY 3 WHEN THE REMNANT CYCLONE IS\r\nOVER THE UPPER-MIDWEST...ISAAC SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WHEN\r\nIT INTERACTS WITH WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.\r\n\r\nSTRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WATER IN THE\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. THEY HAVE\r\nOCCASIONALLY PRODUCED SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ALONG\r\nWITH GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 KT. THOSE STRONG RAINBANDS WILL GRADUALLY\r\nSPREAD WESTWARD TONIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN\r\nLOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS\r\nMETROPOLITAN AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...ISAAC COULD WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND IT SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS NO INDICATION IN ANY\r\nOF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE THAT ISAAC WILL BE ABLE TO ACQUIRE ANY\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY THAT COULD CAUSE IT TO STRENGTHEN INTO A\r\nSIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHILE IT IS OVER THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nSINCE ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS...THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED THREAT OF FLOODING FROM HEAVY\r\nRAINS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nNATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE TIDE GAGES INDICATE THAT STORM SURGE HEIGHTS\r\nOF NEAR 7 FEET ARE STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  GIVEN THE LONG DURATION\r\nOF ONSHORE FLOW IN THESE AREAS...WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nHIGH THROUGH TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORY TIMES HAVE REVERTED BACK TO A 3-HOURLY CYCLE. THE\r\nNEXT INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 700 PM\r\nCDT/0000Z.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 30.0N  91.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 30.7N  91.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 32.0N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 33.8N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 35.7N  93.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 38.6N  91.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 40.0N  88.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1800Z 40.5N  83.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":36,"Date":"2012-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1000 PM CDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISAAC\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.  THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...A SLIGHT INCREASE IS FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY \r\nAS ISAAC MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE THAT MOVES\r\nEASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD AS IT ENTERS AN\r\nAREA OF WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WEST AT 48 AND 72 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE LATEST\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRECENT WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT 50 KT. THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY\r\nOCCURRING OVER WATER.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ISAAC\r\nSHOULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THURSDAY EVENING.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD\r\nINLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL\r\nREMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 30.3N  91.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 31.2N  92.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 32.8N  92.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 34.9N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 37.3N  93.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 39.5N  91.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 40.0N  87.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0000Z 40.5N  83.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":37,"Date":"2012-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n400 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nISAAC IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS MORE OF ITS LARGE CIRCULATION MOVES\r\nOVER LAND.  BASED ON THE LATEST SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF COAST...THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NEAR 40\r\nKT.  THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER WATER OR ALONG THE\r\nCOASTLINE.   CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ISAAC IS\r\nLIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS\r\nMORE OR LESS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES USING SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA AND NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ISAAC IS MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...325/7.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST AND PROGNOSTIC REASONING REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHOULD\r\nBE THE FLOW BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND A RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS A RESULT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD...NORTHEASTWARD...AND EASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD\r\nINLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL\r\nREMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING.  TORNADOES REMAIN A\r\nTHREAT AS WELL FROM THIS SYSTEM TODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 30.9N  91.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 31.9N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 33.8N  93.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 36.0N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 38.0N  93.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 39.5N  90.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 40.0N  86.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0600Z 40.5N  82.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":38,"Date":"2012-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n1000 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES USING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER\r\nRADARS INDICATE THAT ISAAC IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 330/08 KT. \r\nTHE FORECAST TACK AND REASONING REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. ISAAC AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 2...AND THEN\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD ON DAY 3-5 AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO\r\nWEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 35 KT...AND THAT IS IN \r\nSMALL AREA OVER WATER BETWEEN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THE\r\nMISSISSIPPI COAST...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING A FEW MILES INLAND.\r\nISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nDECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST\r\nWILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS MORNING. THE THREAT FOR\r\nTORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO APPEARS TO BE INCREASING TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 31.7N  92.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 33.0N  92.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 35.0N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 37.0N  93.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 38.4N  92.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 39.4N  89.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 39.5N  86.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1200Z 39.5N  83.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Isaac","Adv":39,"Date":"2012-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012\r\n400 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS INDICATE THAT\r\nISAAC IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 340/11 KT. ISAAC WILL\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND MOVE\r\nACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI. BY DAY 3...THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nINTO WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT...BASED ON SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA. ISAAC WILL CONTINUE\r\nTO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nDECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nSPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST\r\nWILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY\r\nSUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ISAAC ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...\r\nUNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT\r\n10 PM CDT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 32.7N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 34.0N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 36.0N  93.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 37.7N  92.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 38.6N  91.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 39.5N  88.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 39.5N  85.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1800Z 38.5N  82.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED\r\nAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE BOTH 2.0...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30KT.\r\nGIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE INTENSITY WILL DEPEND IN LARGE PART ON HOW MUCH THE\r\nDEPRESSION BECOMES INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE LESSER ANTILLES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AND THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  INTERACTIONS WITH EITHER WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE AND A POSSIBLE HALT IN\r\nINTENSIFICATION. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...NEARLY IN TANDEM WITH A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE INCREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WITH THE GFS FORECASTING A DEEPER SYSTEM THAT TURNS\r\nMORE QUICKLY.  THE HWRF SHOWS A SHALLOWER VORTEX THAT MOVES ON A\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nEXTREMES...CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 12.4N  36.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 13.3N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 14.3N  40.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 15.2N  43.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 16.2N  46.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 18.5N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 21.8N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 26.0N  64.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS NOT\r\nBECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING...POSSIBLY\r\nCOINCIDING WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.0...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/14...HOWEVER THIS IS HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFICULTY IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES\r\nTOWARD A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nEXPECTED AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. CAUSES THE\r\nRIDGE TO RETREAT AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE EDGE OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ISAAC...AND THE FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH\r\nATLANTIC...ARE DISTORTING THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE\r\nINTO A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM. BY\r\nDAY THREE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CATCH UP TO THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN\r\nWIND SHEAR...AND A HALTING OF INTENSIFICATION. THE SHEAR MAY\r\nDECREASE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO\r\nMOVE AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED SLIGHTLY...IN LARGE PART DUE TO THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE STORM...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 13.1N  37.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 14.0N  39.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 15.0N  42.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 16.0N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 17.1N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 19.9N  53.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 23.5N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 28.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 22 2012\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN HAS BEEN PRODUCING PULSES OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. \r\nDVORAK CI NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS STILL BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE ROAD AHEAD IS SOMEWHAT OF AN\r\nOBSTACLE COURSE.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOT TOO FAR FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST...AND IT IS LIKELY TO INTERACT WITH\r\nTHIS FEATURE IN SOME FASHION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  EVEN AFTER\r\nTHE DEPRESSION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD THEN BE AFFECTED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC TO ITS WEST.  THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS HAVE NEVER SHOWN MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS CYCLONE...AND\r\nTHE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS HAVE COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY\r\nON THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...LYING JUST ABOVE THE\r\nGUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nHAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 295/15 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL IT REACHES THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ON DAY 3.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST ON THIS CYCLE BUT IS\r\nSTILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS\r\nTHEREFORE BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THIS TRACK ENDS UP\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NEARLY\r\nIDENTICAL ON DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 13.8N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 14.5N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 15.4N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 16.4N  46.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 17.6N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 25.0N  62.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 30.0N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSPORADIC THOUGH WITH QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO\r\nBE NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CONVECTION SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS INHIBITING ITS DEVELOPMENT. \r\nAS A RESULT OF THE LACK OF IMPROVEMENT OF THE ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT A 2.0...OR ABOUT 30 KT.  IN CONTRAST...TWO RECENT AMSU\r\nSATELLITE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MAY BE A 35 TO 45 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  GIVEN THE UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nA 0406Z AMSU IMAGE FROM THE NRL WEBSITE PROVIDES MODERATE CONFIDENCE\r\nIN THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...295\r\nDEGREES...AT 14 KT...AS THE CYCLONE IS BEING ADVECTED AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BY DAY FIVE AS IT\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS RELATIVELY TIGHT CLUSTERING AND HAD LITTLE\r\nCHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE.  THUS THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nNEARLY IDENTICAL TO BOTH THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE HFIP TV15\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS MORE PROBLEMATIC THAN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  THE AFOREMENTIONED MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IS PRIMARILY\r\nBEING INDUCED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED ABOUT 600 NM NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THE UPPER LOW SHOULD GET\r\nCLOSER TOGETHER OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE\r\nMODERATE SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE.  ON DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR MAY INCREASE DUE TO THE OUTFLOW OF ISAAC. \r\nMOREOVER...THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR MUCH\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS SOME DRY STABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN\r\nAIR LAYER...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR...MAY BE\r\nREACHING THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS.  THUS ONLY VERY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH HWRF AND SHIPS MODELS. \r\nTHE PREDICTED INTENSITIES ARE REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL\r\nMODELS IS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD SUCCOMB TO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND DISSIPATE BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 14.5N  40.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 15.2N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 16.2N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 17.4N  47.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 18.8N  50.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 22.0N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 27.0N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 31.0N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED IN\r\nORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.  ANIMATION OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A FAIRLY\r\nCIRCULAR MASS OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO A CONSENSUS 2.5...AND THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 295/14.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nJOYCE CONTINUING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  IN 3-4 DAYS...JOYCE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AN\r\nAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD\r\nERODE THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC...ALLOWING JOYCE TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT\r\nDIFFERENCES ARISE AS A RESULT OF THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO RELY ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nECWMF AND GFS SOLUTIONS...WHICH FAVOR A STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF\r\nJOYCE THAN THE GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS WHICH HAVE BEEN FORECASTING A\r\nMUCH WEAKER SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CHALLENGING.  THE PROXIMITY OF JOYCE\r\nTO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO THE WEST IS\r\nIMPARTING SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  A DRY SAHARAN AIR\r\nLAYER WITHIN THE TROUGH IS ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPART OF THE CIRCULATION.  WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO GET CLOSER\r\nTO THE TROUGH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LITTLE ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN ABOUT 4\r\nDAYS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF A DECREASE IN SHEAR\r\nOVER JOYCE IF IT IS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OF\r\nISAAC.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE BELOW\r\nTHE LGEM/SHIPS OUTPUT...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION LATER ON.\r\n \r\nTHIS TIES THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE TENTH NAMED TROPICAL\r\nSTORM OF A SEASON.  IN 2005...TROPICAL STORM JOSE FORMED ON 22\r\nAUGUST AND IN 1995 TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORMED ON THIS DATE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 15.2N  42.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 16.0N  44.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 17.1N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 18.4N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 19.9N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 23.9N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 28.5N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 33.5N  62.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joyce","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF JOYCE HAS UNEXPECTEDLY\r\nBECOME EXPOSED. THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH WAS EARLIER THOUGHT TO\r\nBE PARTIALLY COVERING THE CENTER...HAS BEEN CARRIED FAR TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST ALONG WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...\r\nLEAVING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BEHIND. AN 1816 UTC SSMI OVERPASS\r\nCONFIRMED THIS STARK DECOUPLING...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE RESULTED\r\nFROM A COMBINATION OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR. \r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nDECREASE IN ORGANIZATION...IT IS ASSUMED THAT TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING IN THE CONVECTION WELL TO THE NORTH IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.  THE WIND RADII\r\nHAVE TEMPORARILY BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS DISPLACEMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 300/12 SINCE THE\r\nCENTER POSITION WAS NOT WELL KNOWN EARLIER.  JOYCE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nAROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR\r\nIN ABOUT 4-5 DAYS AS JOYCE ENCOUNTERS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND RECURVES INTO A STRONG BAND OF WESTERLIES TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT IN THE FIRST 48-72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBLE\r\nREFORMATION OF JOYCE TO THE NORTH.  THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nECMWF/GFS...WHICH SHOWED A DEEPER REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nONE OF TWO OPTIONS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH REGARD TO\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST. A NEW LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD FORM IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AND BECOME DOMINANT.\r\nTHE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT NO NEW CENTER WILL FORM AND JOYCE\r\nWILL DISSIPATE. ASSUMING THAT JOYCE SURVIVES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...THE PROSPECT FOR INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT\r\n2-3 DAYS. THE CONTINUED PROXIMITY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...COUPLED WITH THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR...SHOULD INHIBIT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOME CHANCE OF JOYCE INTENSIFYING\r\nAROUND THE TIME IT RECURVES. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN REDUCED DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND MODIFIED UPWARD ON\r\nDAYS 4-5.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 15.9N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 17.1N  45.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 18.5N  47.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 20.0N  50.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 22.1N  54.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 26.3N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 30.8N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 34.5N  60.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 23 2012\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS NOT REFORMED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOYCE...AND\r\nSATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT IT REMAINS EXPOSED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF ITS\r\nDYING MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC\r\nSUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25-30 KT...SO 30 KT WILL BE USED AS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS...MODERATE OR STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nIS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT\r\nALLOW FOR MUCH STRENGTHENING...SO LITTLE CHANGE IS SHOWN DURING\r\nTHAT TIME.  IN A FEW DAYS...JOYCE COULD BE POSITIONED IN A LIGHTER\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THUS...SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL BE SHOWN AT LONG RANGE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.   IT IS WORTH\r\nMENTIONING THAT...CONSIDERING THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...IT WOULD\r\nNOT BE SURPRISING IF JOYCE DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW SOMETIME\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...\r\n300/12.  JOYCE SHOULD ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS IT MOVES INTO FASTER FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND A TROUGH EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AFTER DAY 3 AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO WITH ONLY SOME MINOR\r\nDIFFERENCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT DURING RECURVATURE IN THE LONG RANGE.  \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 16.3N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 17.4N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 18.9N  48.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 20.7N  52.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 22.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 27.0N  62.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 36.0N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Joyce","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY\r\nNON-EXISTANT FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED INHIBITING\r\nINFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED\r\nHOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN. INDEED...ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...INDICATE THAT JOYCE\r\nSHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.\r\nHOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...JOYCE COULD\r\nBECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE\r\nDISCONTINUED. \r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM THE GOES-EAST\r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT\r\nOF THE MOTION OF JOYCE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT.  JOYCE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED\r\nFOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH.  AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCA\r\nCONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 16.9N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 17.8N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 19.2N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 21.0N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 22.8N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 27.0N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 31.5N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 36.5N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Joyce","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nHAS BECOME ILL DEFINED...AND THE CIRCULATION ITSELF MAY NOT EVEN BE\r\nCLOSED ANYMORE.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION\r\nIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT\r\nWELL ORGANIZED.  JOYCE NO LONGER SATISFIES THE CRITERIA FOR BEING A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT\r\nLOW.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  \r\n\r\nBASED ON ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS...JOYCE IS BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT\r\n20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS EMBEDDED IN A DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  THESE PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE APPRECIABLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE\r\nPROSPECTS OF REGENERATION AND STRENGTHENING APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. \r\nTHE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS THE CYCLONE AS A REMNANT LOW\r\nTHROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST...BUT IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nLOW COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13.  THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME ACCELERATION AS IT\r\nMOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF\r\nTHE RIDGE IN 3-4 DAYS...AND ARE FORECAST TO RE-CURVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS STILL IN RELATIVELY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 17.8N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 18.7N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 20.3N  52.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 22.1N  55.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 24.5N  58.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 29.0N  63.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 33.5N  62.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/1200Z 37.5N  53.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CENTER WAS EXPOSED EARLIER\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER...THE CENTER HAS NOW REFORMED\r\nCLOSER TO THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE\r\nFROM SAB.\r\n \r\nRGB AIRMASS IMAGERY FROM MET-9 SHOWS AN AREA OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...IF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION PERSISTS...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM\r\nSOON. OVERALL THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS AN UPPER-LOW MOVES WESTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN\r\nABOUT THREE DAYS THE SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD\r\nOF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA. THE\r\nNHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND ITS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE AT SOME\r\nPOINT...AS SHOWN BY THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/09...AS THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION. A WESTWARD\r\nOR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED BY A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH. THE CYCLONE WILL REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE BY 72\r\nHOURS AND A NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION AHEAD OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 23.8N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 24.1N  45.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 24.3N  47.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 24.6N  49.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 25.3N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 27.5N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 32.5N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 40.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nA LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST...WITH A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES COLDER THAN -70C...HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nAN ASCAT PASS FROM 2338 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE WIND VECTORS NEAR 40 KT\r\nOR PERHAPS A LITTLE HIGHER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY SET AT 40 KT...AND THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR REMAINING GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND\r\n20 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN ADDITION...GOES-R IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nA SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. WHILE THESE\r\nCONDITIONS SEEM UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SUGGEST THAT KIRK COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN\r\nA FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nUPWARD BUT IS STILL BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA HAS HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF KIRK...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 280/10.  A CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TO TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST WITH A FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING LARGE-\r\nSCALE TROUGH.  THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS A MUCH DEEPER SYSTEM AND...AS\r\nA RESULT...HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE EAST WITH RECURVATURE OCCURRING\r\nAROUND 50W. THE NEW OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST CONSIDERS THE GFS AN\r\nOUTLIER AT THIS TIME AND REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 23.9N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 24.2N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 24.5N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 25.0N  50.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 26.0N  52.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 29.0N  55.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 34.8N  52.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 42.3N  44.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...KIRK IS\r\nSTILL PRODUCING A FAIR AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 40 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KT IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN SOME\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SINCE KIRK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER\r\nWATERS WARMER THAN 26C FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS AND BECAUSE OF THE\r\nANTICIPATED MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...STRENGTHENING\r\nSEEMS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER VERY COOL\r\nWATERS AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION AT ABOUT THE SAME FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT...A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTHEAST WITH A PROGRESSIVELY FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED\r\nAS KIRK MOVES WITHIN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING\r\nTROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO\r\nCOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...BUT IT STILL\r\nLIES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 24.3N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 24.7N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 25.3N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 26.4N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 28.1N  51.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 32.5N  51.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 46.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nWHILE KIRK HAS A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL CENTER ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF\r\nTHE RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CANOPY...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE WEST DUE TO\r\nABOUT 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL-T\r\nNUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB. IN THE SHORT TERM THE COMBINATION OF DRY\r\nAIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT SUGGESTS THAT ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL BE GRADUAL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT IS\r\nSTILL ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH THAT TIME. AFTER THAT TIME \r\nAS KIRK RECURVES AND THE SHEAR DECREASES...STRENGTHENING TO\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY IS FORECAST BY 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS. KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY\r\nTHE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SLOW WEAKENING UNDERWAY BY THAT TIME. \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED WEST OF\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES OVERNIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A\r\nRATHER UNCERTAIN 290/10. KIRK WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE RECURVES INTO THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. WHILE THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE REMAIN\r\nSOME SIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE MOTION IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM. THE ECMWF MODEL KEEPS KIRK WEAKER AND SHOWS MORE GRADUAL\r\nRECURVATURE...WHILE THE GFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE REGIONAL\r\nHURRICANE MODELS SHOW A SHARPER RECURVATURE. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS\r\nFASTER THROUGH 36 HOURS AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...LARGELY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCA CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AFTERWARD...CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 24.7N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 25.3N  48.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 26.2N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 27.8N  51.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 29.8N  52.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 34.5N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 40.5N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 48.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 29 2012\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED OVER THE CENTER OF KIRK THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...BUT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEGUN TO WARM AGAIN\r\nOVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...MODERATE SHEAR VALUES AND SOME DRY AIR IN THE\r\nENVIRONMENT WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE\r\nAS KIRK MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...\r\nAND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS KIRK BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72\r\nHOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 4 AS THE SHEAR INCREASES\r\nDRAMATICALLY AND KIRK MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS BEFORE THE CYCLONE\r\nIS ABSORBED BY DAY 5. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE VARIOUS INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nIS ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 300/09. OVERALL THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS KIRK WILL MOVE\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE RECURVES AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TOWARD A SHARPER RECURVATURE THIS\r\nCYCLE WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. FOR\r\nEXAMPLE...THE ECMWF...WHICH WAS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE EARLIER NOW LIES CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE BUT\r\nIS EAST OF THE CONSENSUS. OVERALL THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED\r\nRIGHTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE\r\nADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...RESULTS IN A\r\nRIGHTWARD SHIFT OF ABOUT A DEGREE IN THE NHC TRACK IN THE FIRST 36\r\nHOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE NHC FORECAST IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE OLD TRACK...BUT IS FASTER. THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD THE NHC TRACK\r\nIS NEAR THE TVCA CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 25.3N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 26.1N  48.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 27.7N  50.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 29.6N  51.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 31.9N  51.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 38.0N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 45.5N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS FULLY\r\nWRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER IN THE FORM OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nAN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS SHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF\r\nCONVECTION...LIKELY PORTENDING AN INTENSIFICATION PHASE. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS AT 0000 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 3.0/45 KT. A 0056 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS SHOWED SEVERAL RELIABLE 45 KT WIND VECTORS. SINCE THAT\r\nTIME...AN INTERMITTENT EYE HAS BEEN VISIBLE BUT THAT FEATURE HAS NOT\r\nPERSISTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 50 KT BASED\r\nON THE OVERALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MORE RELIABLE FIXES HAS YIELDED A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 300/08.  KIRK IS ALREADY ROUNDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS RESPOND BY SHOWING THE CYCLONE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A RAPIDLY ADVANCING SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SWEEP\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE FURTHER IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...\r\nLEADING TO A RECURVATURE OF KIRK INTO THE WESTERLIES.  A MORE\r\nCOMPLEX SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIME\r\nPROVINCES AROUND THAT TIME WILL CAUSE KIRK TO ACCELERATE FOR THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A\r\nBIT TO THE RIGHT...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERALLY\r\nRELIABLE GFS AND ECWMF MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KIRK APPEARS TO BE RELAXING AND IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN LOW FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nREMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. KIRK ALSO SEEMS TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY\r\nINSULATED FROM DRY AIR LURKING TO THE NORTHWEST. STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF KIRK OF PROGRESSIVE\r\nLOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AROUND THAT\r\nTIME. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RAPIDLY ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY\r\nENCROACHING ON KIRK IN 72-96 HOURS...AND THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST\r\nTO ABSORB THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS ADJUSTED UPWARD OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON NOT ONLY SHORT-\r\nTERM TRENDS BUT ALSO THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 25.9N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 26.9N  49.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 28.6N  50.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 30.6N  50.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 33.3N  49.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 39.4N  43.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 47.1N  34.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE SHOWN HINTS OF AN\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE AT 45 KT AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT THE HIGHER OF THE TWO NUMBERS GIVEN\r\nTHE MICROWAVE PRESENTATION.  KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A\r\nLOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 26C FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nTO 72 HOURS...AND CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THAT\r\nTIME PERIOD.  VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN\r\nAFFECTING THE CYCLONE FROM 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...AT WHICH POINT\r\nKIRK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  KIRK IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nIS THEREFORE PRONE TO QUICKER STRENGTHENING THAN A LARGE CYCLONE. \r\nBECAUSE OF THAT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL HURRICANE MODELS THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  THERE IS\r\nSOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN KIRK WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AND/OR\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH THE GFS HOLDING ON TO\r\nA NON-FRONTAL LOW LONGER THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THE\r\nFORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE...MAKING KIRK EXTRATROPICAL IN 96\r\nHOURS AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/10.  KIRK IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO\r\nFEEL THE PRESENCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A BIT LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 26.5N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 27.5N  50.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 29.3N  50.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 31.5N  50.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 34.2N  49.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 40.5N  43.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 47.5N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nKIRK HAS DEVELOPED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SINCE THE 12Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55-60\r\nKT WERE RECEIVED FROM TAFB AND SAB. AS A RESULT...KIRK HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/10 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. KIRK IS ON\r\nTRACK AND THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST IS JUST\r\nAN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...WHICH LIES ON TOP OF\r\nTHE NEARLY IDENTICAL TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nKIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SSTS\r\nOF MORE THAN 26C FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. HOWEVER...SINCE\r\nKIRK IS A SMALL SYSTEM...IT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INTERMITTENT\r\nINTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR THAT CAN BRIEFLY INTERRUPT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR AND SSTS\r\nLESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL\r\nIV15.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 27.2N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 28.4N  50.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 30.4N  50.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 32.9N  49.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 35.8N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 42.2N  40.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 49.2N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nKIRK HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A 10-NMI DIAMETER EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE 18Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS\r\nT4.5/77 KT KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THAT THE CDO FEATURE HAS\r\nEXPANDED AND TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/11 KT. THERE REMAINS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.\r\nKIRK CONTINUES ON TRACK AND THE 18Z MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. AS A RESULT...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...\r\nWHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nKIRK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY DRY AIR ISSUES...SO\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY COMPACT\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH MAKES IT VULNERABLE TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF NEARBY DRY AIR...THE CYCLONE COULD STILL\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 36-48 HOURS. BY\r\n96 HOURS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND SSTS\r\nLESS THAN 20C SHOULD RESULT IN KIRK BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. MERGER WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED BY 120 HOURS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 28.2N  50.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 29.5N  50.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 31.8N  50.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 34.4N  49.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 37.5N  46.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 44.5N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 51.5N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nCORRECTED TO CHANGE STATUS AT 120 HOURS TO ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n\r\nKIRK CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN...WITH A\r\nSYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPRISED OF COLD CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE\r\nSEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF...THE EYE HAS WARMED FURTHER AND BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THE LATEST ADT VALUES\r\nHAVE BEEN RUNNING CLOSER TO T5.0. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nRAISED TO 85 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA SOURCES.\r\nKIRK HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO TRAVERSING WARM WATERS IN A RELATIVELY\r\nLOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE ALSO HAS A WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nOUTFLOW SINK TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH A JET TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...WHICH COULD SERVE AS AN ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL.\r\nTHESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...\r\nSUGGESTS A PEAK INTENSITY OCCURRING AROUND OR JUST AFTER THE POINT\r\nOF RECURVATURE. A SHARP INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER RAPIDLY\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND 48 HOURS SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN STEADY OR EVEN RAPID WEAKENING. A QUICK-MOVING FRONTAL ZONE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO OVERTAKE KIRK IN 2-3 DAYS...RESULTING IN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION JUST AROUND 72 HOURS AND ABSORPTION IN 96\r\nHOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM INTENSITY\r\nAIDS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE HAS VEERED A HAIR TO THE RIGHT AND IS\r\n335/10. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLEAR-CUT. KIRK HAS REACHED THE\r\nWESTERN END OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SHOULD UNDERGO\r\nRECURVATURE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY\r\nBECOME EMBEDDED IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND ACCELERATE AT WARP\r\nSPEED WITH THE APPROACH OF A POTENT MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE OVER THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IN 36-48 HOURS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...GIVEN THE EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0300Z 29.0N  50.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 30.5N  50.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 33.0N  50.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 35.8N  47.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 38.7N  44.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 46.2N  34.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 52.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nKIRK IS A SMALL-SIZE HURRICANE WITH A DISTINCT EYE SURROUNDED BY A\r\nRING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION.  BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS WERE 5.0 AT 0600 UTC ON THE DVORAK SCALE GIVING AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS IMPROVED...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED.\r\nTHIS MEANS THAT THE WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. HOWEVER...I\r\nWOULD RATHER WAIT FOR THE PERSISTENCE OF THESE HIGHER T-NUMBERS\r\nBEFORE ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD...IF NECESSARY.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...KIRK ONLY HAS A 24-HOUR WINDOW TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE IT REACHES SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER\r\nTHAN 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE HURRICANE SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN\r\nAND LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR EARLIER.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT\r\n10 KNOTS...AND SOON IT SHOULD RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nKIRK SHOULD THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE AS INDICATED BY\r\nMOST OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STEERING\r\nFLOW AROUND KIRK IS WELL ESTABLISHED...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 30.1N  50.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 31.7N  50.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 34.5N  49.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 37.5N  46.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 41.0N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 50.5N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nA 1202 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED THAT THE SMALL EYE OF KIRK IS STILL\r\nTHERE...EVEN THOUGH IT IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE GUIDANCE AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST NO LONGER SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nKIRK COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER\r\nWATERS AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD BUT ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AND KEEPS KIRK AS A\r\nHURRICANE THROUGH 48 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST IVCN\r\nCONSENSUS AID AND THE LGEM. KIRK SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72\r\nHOURS AND BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR A BIT SOONER.\r\n \r\nKIRK IS NOW MOVING A TAD EAST OF NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 005/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE RECURVING AS IT\r\nMOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THEN\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A\r\nBIT SLOWER...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 31.2N  50.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 33.1N  50.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 35.7N  47.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 38.9N  44.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 43.0N  39.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 53.0N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nKIRK HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED LOOKING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. THIS MAY BE DUE TO SOME UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW IMPINGING ON KIRK FROM A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB RESULTS IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT KIRK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY SLOW WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME THE WEAKENING SHOULD BE A LITTLE FASTER BEFORE KIRK\r\nIS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL BETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST TIMES...BUT THAT\r\nIS NOT SHOWN EXPLICITLY HERE. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11...AS KIRK IS NOW ROUNDING THE\r\nNORTHWEST SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT SHOWING KIRK RECURVING INTO THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONLY AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 32.2N  50.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 34.3N  49.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 37.3N  46.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 41.2N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 46.0N  36.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nTHE APPEARANCE OF KIRK ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE MORE RAGGED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES...HOWEVER...INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF THE COMPACT\r\nHURRICANE IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH A PARTIAL EYEWALL STILL INTACT. AN\r\nAVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS IS THE BASIS FOR LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.\r\nKIRK IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO BUT BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY\r\nLOW...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR BY\r\nDAY 2...WHEN KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nWELL BELOW 20C AND IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. NEARLY ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS SHOW KIRK BECOMING ABSORBED BY A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OR\r\nDISSIPATING WITHIN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nKIRK IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT A LITTLE FASTER\r\nPACE...015/14...AS IT IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE\r\nEAST OF A TROUGH. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST UNTIL KIRK DISSIPATES OR BECOMES ABSORBED. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 33.9N  49.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 36.1N  47.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 39.4N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 43.7N  39.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 48.1N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  04/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kirk","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF KIRK WAS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nAN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS STILL LOCATED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. BOTH SUBJECTIVE\r\nAND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. KIRK WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND STRONG SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY.  MOST LIKELY...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 HOURS OR LESS BEFORE IT IS\r\nABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 035 DEGREES AT 20\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL\r\nTRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE TROUGH TO THE WEST\r\nAMPLIFIES. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 35.3N  48.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 37.7N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 41.5N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 46.0N  36.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KIRK IS BECOMING\r\nELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...WHILE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE CLODEST\r\nCLOUD TOPS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CI-NUMBER FROM SAB. INCREASING SHEAR AND RAPIDLY COOLING\r\nSSTS ALONG THE TRACK IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS. BY 48 HOURS...KIRK IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY AN\r\nAPPROACHING FRONT OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/22...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE.\r\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION. OTHERWISE...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST REASONING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT AN\r\nINCREASING FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1238\r\nUTC ASCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 37.4N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 40.0N  43.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 44.3N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 49.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  03/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KIRK CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE. CLOUD\r\nTOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST CONTINUES\r\nTO ELONGATE NORTHEASTWARD AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AFFECT\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBER FROM TAFB.\r\nAS KIRK MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND THE SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\nKIRK SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/25...AS KIRK CONTINUES TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER BY 24 HOURS...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 39.5N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 42.4N  41.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 47.6N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BEEN STEADILY SHRINKING\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW ONLY CONSISTS OF A FEW PATCHES.\r\nAN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS\r\nSUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 50 KT...AND THAT COULD\r\nBE GENEROUS. KIRK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON\r\nSUNDAY AS IT MOVES OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 20C AND INTO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT. THE SMALL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED SUNDAY NIGHT BY A COLD FRONT THAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY SITUATED ABOUT 500 N MI TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE INTENSITY\r\nAND WIND RADII FORECASTS CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 25 KT AS\r\nIT IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE EAST OF A TROUGH.\r\nA CONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nIS EXPECTED UNTIL KIRK IS ABSORBED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 41.2N  41.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 44.5N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 50.0N  30.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nKIRK HAS BEEN ACCELERATING OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT\r\nCONTINUES ITS TREK ACROSS THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 045/28 KT. CONTINUED ACCELERATION TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS NOW THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nIS CAUGHT UP IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEEPENING\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES REGION. SINCE KIRK REMAINS ON TRACK...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE TV15 AND TVCA CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nA SMALL FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER OF\r\nKIRK DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS HELPED KIRK TO CLING ON TO\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.  HOWEVER...THIS WILL LIKELY BE A\r\nSHORT-LIVED RESPITE...AND WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SUB-20C SSTS IN 6-12 HOURS. DEGENERATION\r\nINTO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY 12\r\nHOURS...AND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nBY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECASTS\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 43.5N  39.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 47.4N  34.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 53.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kirk","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n\r\nKIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER. VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES AND A 1214 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS\r\nA CLOSED CIRCULATION BUT IT IS BECOMING ELONGATED. MAXIMUM\r\nRELIABLE WINDS IN THE ASCAT PASS WERE AROUND 45 KT SO THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. KIRK WILL LIKELY BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY OR DISSIPATE JUST BEFORE IT MERGES WITH A\r\nFRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 N MI TO ITS WEST. \r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT KIRK HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING A VERY FAST 035/32. AN EVEN\r\nFASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nABSORBED BY THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 46.2N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 51.1N  30.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kirk","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIRK DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112012\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIRK HAS BECOME DISPLACED ABOUT 100\r\nN MI TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER DUE TO OVER 30\r\nKT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME COLD CORE...OR NO LONGER\r\nTROPICAL IN NATURE...ACCORDING TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY\r\nCYCLONE PHASE ANALYSIS. THEREFORE...KIRK IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RACING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 41 KT. A\r\nCOLD FRONT CURRENTLY IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR ON\r\nMONDAY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 49.7N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 55.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  03/1800Z...MERGED WITH FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO BE\r\nCONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND IS ON\r\nTHE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE\r\nEMBEDDED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAND.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS 30 KT...WHICH IS BASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB AND SAB 1200 UTC\r\nESTIMATES... THOUGH IT MIGHT BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON THE\r\nLATEST PICTURES.  AS THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM WATERS DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY WHILE AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE LONG RANGE\r\nINTENSITY SEEMS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WILDLY\r\nDIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERNS.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND COULD BE CONSERVATIVE IF THE LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOWN BY THE GFS MATERIALIZES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 275/17.  MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOON AS IT MOVES\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...PARTIALLY RELATED TO\r\nKIRK.  WHILE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD SOMEWHAT AS KIRK MOVES\r\nOUT TO SEA...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW TROUGHING BETWEEN\r\n60W-70W IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WHICH WILL PROBABLY TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE LONG RANGE RELATED TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM RECURVES AHEAD OF\r\nTHE TROUGH OR GETS TRAPPED BENEATH A REBUILDING RIDGE.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT THIS FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 14.1N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 14.8N  45.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 15.9N  48.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 17.1N  52.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 21.0N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 27.0N  61.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS QUICKLY ORGANIZED TODAY WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES\r\nAND INCREASED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET TO 40 KT AS A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ALL BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE STORM\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO BE A FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...AND\r\nTHERE ARE EVEN A COUPLE MODELS THAT SHOW IT NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE BELOW THE ROBUST LGEM/SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  WHILE THE TIMING IS IMPOSSIBLE TO\r\nPINPOINT...IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF LESLIE BECAME STRONGER\r\nTHAN FORECAST IN THE THREE-TO-FIVE DAY PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 280/18.  LESLIE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A SERIES OF TROUGHS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DIG BETWEEN 60W-70W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO\r\nMAKE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IN A FEW DAYS.\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST THREE\r\nDAYS...THEN SOME DIVERGENCE OCCURS ON WHICH TROUGH MIGHT RECURVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...SPEED DIFFERENCES BECOME\r\nVERY IMPORTANT ON WHETHER LESLIE MOVES QUICKLY OUT TO SEA...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE GFS...OR GETS STUCK UNDER A RIDGE...AS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE ECMWF.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...STILL A BIT FASTER AND WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING RATHER LARGE...SO THE WIND\r\nRADII FORECAST HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY EXPANDED.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 14.4N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 15.3N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 16.5N  50.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 17.7N  53.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 19.0N  56.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 22.0N  59.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 26.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 28.5N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nLESLIE IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS...MOST LIKELY DUE TO LIGHT/MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY 41041 REPORTED 1004 MB AND\r\nNORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AS THE CENTER PASSED TO THE NORTH. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/16.  LESLIE IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING OFF\r\nOF THE COAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...SHOULD DEVELOP\r\nINTO A CUT-OFF LOW BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS.  THIS LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO BREAK THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVELS...\r\nAND EXTEND FAR ENOUGH VERTICALLY DOWNWARD TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE AT\r\n700-850 MB.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CUT-OFF LOW AFTER THE 48 HR\r\nPOINT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK THROUGH 96 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSTARTS TO DIVERGE AT 120 HR REGARDING HOW QUICKLY LESLIE SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER THE WESTERLIES...AND BASED ON THIS SPREAD...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION NEAR THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT LESLIE SHOULD REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 36-48\r\nHR...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ENCOUNTER SIGNIFICANT\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF\r\nLOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ENOUGH SHEAR TO SLOW OR HALT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A LITTLE\r\nLESS STRENGTHENING THAN FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...MOST NOTABLY\r\nAFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND THE CURRENT SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING LESLIE BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE BY 24 HR AND SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FROM\r\n72-120 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING VERY LARGE...WHICH IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE CURRENT WIND FIELD FORECAST.  AN ADDITIONAL\r\nINCREASE IN SIZE APPEARS LIKELY AFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0300Z 14.7N  46.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 15.5N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 16.7N  51.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 17.9N  54.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 19.3N  56.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 22.5N  60.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 26.5N  61.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 29.0N  61.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN\r\nAFFECTING LESLIE IS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.  THE STORM IS PRODUCING\r\nGOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS MIGRATED FARTHER INTO THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nLESLIE IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 285/14 KT...AND A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO NEARLY VANISH BY DAY 3 AS LESLIE BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS AND WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.  BECAUSE OF THE COLLAPSE IN THE STEERING FLOW...LESLIE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BUT SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nBUT THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT ON DAYS 4 AND\r\n5.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS THEREFORE SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nBUT IT IS STILL EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA ON DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AROUND LESLIE IS IMPROVING...AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM SHOULD HAVE AN OUTFLOW PATTERN\r\nBENEFICIAL FOR STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AND ACTUALLY ENDS UP A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS ON DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...HOWEVER.  THE OPERATIONAL GFS MAINTAINS A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN ON THOSE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALL SHOW AN INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR.  THE NHC FORECAST HEDGES ON THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THESE MODELS...AS WELL AS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND INDICATES SOME POSSIBLE WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 15.2N  47.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 16.1N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 17.4N  52.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 18.6N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 19.9N  57.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 23.0N  60.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 25.5N  62.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 27.0N  62.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS\r\nCAUSING MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT OF THE STORM.  THIS STRUCTURE IS CONFIRMED BY RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT SHOW THE CENTER\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nFEATURE.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH...SO THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KT.  THE SHEAR HAS BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT\r\nLESLIE LACKS ANY CENTRAL CORE.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NEAR LESLIE IN A FEW DAYS...THE POSITIONING OF LESLIE\r\nWITHIN THAT ANTICYCLONE APPEARS LESS FAVORABLE THAN YESTERDAY...\r\nWITH WESTERLY SHEAR POSSIBLE.  THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IS QUITE A\r\nBIT LOWER THAN A COUPLE MODEL CYCLES AGO...AND THIS TOOL HAS BEEN A\r\nGOOD PERFORMER THIS YEAR.  THE NEW FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS INTERPOLATED FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND\r\nRESULTS IN A REDUCTION TO THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/15...A BIT FASTER AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  LESLIE REMAINS BASICALLY ON TRACK AS IT\r\nMOVES BENEATH A NARROW RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE KIRK.  THE\r\nRIDGE BREAKS BETWEEN 60W-65W...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH WITH A LARGE DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IN A FEW DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE WELL CLUSTERED ON THE\r\nTRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE\r\nTO THE NHC FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT LESLIE\r\nWILL MISS A TROUGH FORECAST TO DIVE OFFSHORE OF NORTH AMERICA...AND\r\nWILL BE CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS IN THE LONG\r\nRANGE.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THOSE\r\nTIMES.  \r\n\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 16.2N  49.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 17.2N  51.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 18.5N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 19.6N  56.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 20.9N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 23.8N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 25.9N  62.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 27.0N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STORM LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASSES SHOWING THE CENTER BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nOVERCAST.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HOWEVER...ARE UNCHANGED...SO THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KT.  WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT-TO-MODERATE IN THE SHORT TERM...MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT AFTER THAT TIME.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE DUE TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL HIGH MOVING WEST OF THE CENTER...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOW\r\nLESLIE ONLY AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM\r\nMODEL.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LESLIE FINDING A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT IN THE LONG TERM...BUT ITS LIKELY SLOW MOTION AT THAT\r\nTIME COULD CAUSE UPWELLING UNDER THE STORM...SO THE NHC FORECAST\r\nWILL STAY CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES GIVES A GOOD INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n295/16.  THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE\r\nRELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS\r\nINITIALLY DUE TO THE RIDGE BETWEEN KIRK AND LESLIE BEING A BIT\r\nSTRONGER THAN EXPECTED.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN\r\nFORECASTING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN A FEW DAYS\r\nTIME...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nNORTHWARD IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...LITTLE\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING\r\nCURRENTS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION\r\nIS SHIFTED WESTWARD TO COME CLOSER TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS... ALTHOUGH THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL A BIT WEST OF\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 16.7N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 17.7N  53.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 18.9N  55.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 20.1N  58.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 21.5N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 24.1N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 26.0N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 27.0N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS PRODUCING A LARGE CENTRAL AREA OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  HOWEVER...AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 2318 UTC\r\nAND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0030 UTC INDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS STILL\r\nDISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO CONTINUING\r\nNORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB....AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 55 KT.  ALTHOUGH SHEAR CONTINUES...THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/18.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE STORM SHOULD STEER LESLIE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nCREATED BY A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LEVEL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN BERMUDA AND\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HR IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER 72 HR AS LESLIE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW A SLOW EASTWARD OR\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THIS PERIOD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE SHOW A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\nOVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nAFTER 72 HR.  AS A RESULT...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST AND SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION BY 120 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...IT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND IT IS UNCLEAR IF LESLIE WILL FIND A\r\nREALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME. \r\nFROM 48-96 HR...THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND\r\nIS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER MODERATE/STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH AT\r\nTHE VERY LEAST SHOULD STOP DEVELOPMENT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER 96 HR...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF STILL SHOWS\r\nA RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT DURING THIS TIME.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR SLOW\r\nDEVELOPMENT THROUGH 48 HR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH AT 72 AND 96\r\nHR...AND SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FROM 96-120 HR.  THE FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 17.4N  52.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 18.3N  54.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 19.7N  57.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 21.1N  59.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 22.6N  60.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 25.0N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 26.5N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 28.0N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A\r\nBAND OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLES.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WAS\r\nOBSERVED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE CDO.  HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO TIMELY MICROWAVE PASSES...\r\nAND IT IS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  STILL...DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE COME UP TO T4.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND T3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n295/15 KT.  A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DEVELOP A CUT-OFF LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND\r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF LESLIE TO WEAKEN. \r\nLESLIE WILL RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN AS THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW AROUND IT COLLAPSES.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME\r\nDIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...THEY ALL\r\nSHOW A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEAST BY DAY\r\n5.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nIF LESLIE IS GOING TO STRENGTHEN...IT PROBABLY HAS TO DO IT DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG WESTERLY TO\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN COULD THEN BECOME\r\nMORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BY DAY 5.  THE INTENSITY MODELS DO\r\nNOT SUPPORT MUCH INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE BY\r\nINDICATING ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER\r\nTHAN THAT SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON AND HFIP CONSENSUS TV15.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 17.8N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 18.8N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 20.2N  57.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 21.6N  59.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 23.1N  60.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 25.0N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 26.5N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 28.5N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT LESLIE REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE \r\nWITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 60 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE VARIOUS INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  IT SEEMS LIKE\r\nTHE WINDOW FOR LESLIE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS CLOSING AS\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED.  THIS SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN CIRRUS\r\nCLOUD MOTIONS NEAR THE CENTER...ALONG WITH LARGE-SCALE ANALYSES\r\nFROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHIS SHEAR WILL PERSIST OR EVEN INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS LESLIE IS CAUGHT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED DURING THAT\r\nTIME...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SHEAR\r\nCOULD RELAX IN A FEW DAYS...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN\r\nTHE LONG RANGE...CONTINUING THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES REQUIRE A REPOSITIONING OF LESLIE ABOUT\r\n30 N MI WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FIXES...GIVING A LONG-TERM MOTION OF\r\nABOUT 290/16.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW\r\nAS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN A FEW DAYS AS IT NEARS A BREAK IN\r\nTHE RIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN GENERAL...SHOWING\r\nENOUGH RIDGING EAST OF LESLIE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM TOTALLY\r\nSTALLING OUT AS SUGGESTED IN EARLIER MODEL CYCLES.  THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE\r\nTO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1244\r\nUTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 18.3N  55.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 19.4N  57.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 21.0N  59.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 22.7N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 24.1N  62.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 26.0N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 27.5N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 29.0N  61.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS EXPOSED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT. \r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SOMEWHAT INCREASE\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO FLOW AROUND THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH.  CURIOUSLY...THE MODELS DO\r\nNOT WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MUCH MORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE LESLIE MOVES\r\nTHROUGH AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AND WARM WATERS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING A STEADY STATE\r\nCYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE\r\nSURPRISING IF LESLIE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT DURING THAT TIME.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST STILL LEAVES OPEN THE CHANCE THAT CYCLONE WILL RECOVER IN\r\nA FEW DAYS TIME DUE TO A POSSIBLE LESSENING OF THE SHEAR.  \r\n\r\nVISIBLE FIXES GIVE A MOTION OF ABOUT 295/16.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC REASONING AS LESLIE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BY\r\nLATE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES AROUND A WEAKENING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE GLOBAL MOTION ARE THEN CONSISTENT ABOUT THE\r\nCYCLONE TURNING BY EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.  THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT THE TRACK A BIT FASTER AND LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS.  THE LONG RANGE\r\nFORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE IT INVOLVES THE INTERACTION OF MANY\r\nFEATURES...INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC...A CUTOFF LOW OFFSHORE\r\nOF FLORIDA...AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED TOWARD THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...WHICH ENDS UP BEING A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 19.2N  57.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 20.3N  59.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 23.6N  62.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 24.9N  62.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 26.3N  62.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 27.5N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 29.0N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO 15-20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT\r\nFROM SAB.  DATA FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER NEAR 1630 UTC\r\nSUGGESTED AN INTENSITY NEAR 55 KT.  SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 55 KT.\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 305/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS\r\nIT MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 28N72W AND A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nNORTH OF 35N BETWEEN 55-75W. AFTER THAT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nAGREES THAT LESLIE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY IN A GENERALLY NORTHWARD\r\nDIRECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THE\r\nREMANTS OF ISAAC...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND A\r\nSHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES PASSING NORTH OF THE STORM. THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON\r\nFORECASTING INCREASING SHEAR OVER LESLIE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR...\r\nAND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 25 KT.  DESPITE\r\nTHIS...MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE EITHER MAINTAINS THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE OR FORECASTS INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS\r\nTIME.  BASED ON THE FORECAST SHEAR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR SLIGHT WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...WITH THE\r\nFORECAST NEAR THE THE LOWER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nSHEAR MAY START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 48 HR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST LESLIE TO GROW IN BOTH SIZE AND DEPTH DURING THAT TIME. \r\nTHIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT IS WEAKER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 20.2N  58.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 21.3N  60.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 23.1N  61.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 24.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 25.8N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 27.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 28.0N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF LESLIE REMAINS SHEARED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY BEEN\r\nDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB HAVE BEEN VARYING BETWEEN T3.0/45 KT\r\nAND T3.5/55 KT. A 02/0134 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A PEAK WIND\r\nVECTOR OF 51 KT SURROUNDED BY SEVERAL 50-KT VECTORS. ADJUSTING FOR\r\nTHE KNOWN LOW BIAS OF ASCAT WINDS YIELDS SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF\r\nNEAR 60 KT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/13 KT. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LESLIE GRADUALLY TURNING\r\nNORTHWARD AND ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BETWEEN 60-65W LONGITUDE. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE BROAD\r\nTROUGH/UPPER LOW CREATING THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nLIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL ALLOW A TRAILING SHORTWAVE\r\nRIDGE TO BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF LESLIE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A BLOCKING FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING AROUND THE\r\nCYCLONE THAT WILL CAUSE LESLIE TO SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 5 KT...AND\r\nPOSSIBLY EVEN BECOME STATIONARY DURING THE LATTER FORECAST PERIODS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD CAP ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION. AT 36 AND 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO\r\nWEAKEN SOME. ASSUMING LESLIE SURVIVES THE DAY 2 HOSTILE SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO\r\nIMPROVE AND BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO\r\nOCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW MUCH LESLIE WILL\r\nWEAKEN OVER THE DAY 2-3 TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ALONG\r\nTHE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SHIPS-LGEM\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE INCREASED BASED ON WIND\r\nDATA FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS...WHICH CAPTURED THE\r\nENTIRE CIRCULATION OF LESLIE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 20.8N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 22.0N  60.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 23.7N  62.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 25.0N  62.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 25.9N  62.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 26.9N  62.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 28.0N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 29.2N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nBECAME WELL-SEPARATED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO\r\nA NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER.  EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF STRONGEST\r\nWINDS WAS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER AND THEY HAVE LIKELY\r\nPASSED VERY CLOSE TO NOAA BUOY 41044 THIS MORNING.  THE BUOY HAS\r\nREPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE WINDS OF 43-47 KT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  HOWEVER...SINCE STRONGER WINDS MAY BE OCCURRING IN THE\r\nCONVECTION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 55 KT.\r\n \r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PLAGUING LESLIE\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IN FACT...IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nSTRONGER BETWEEN 24 AND 60 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO\r\nWEAKEN A LITTLE. DURING THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH TYPICALLY HANDLES THE INTENSITY OF TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES BETTER IN EVOLVING SHEAR CONDITIONS.  AT DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX AND LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN\r\nA MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.  AS A RESULT...THE\r\nNHC FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT LESLIE WAS LOCATED A LITTLE\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THAT IT HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON MOVING LESLIE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURNING IT\r\nNORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER THAT TIME...A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BY-PASS LESLIE WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE\r\nMORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION.  THE NEW TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 21.3N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 23.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  63.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 25.5N  63.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 26.2N  63.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 27.3N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 28.3N  63.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 29.5N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nDURING THE DAY...AS THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nAN ASCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS WELL TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON ASCAT DATA...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE LESLIE HAS SUCH A LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION AND WIND FIELD...IT IS LIKELY TO CHANGE LITTLE IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND THE REMAINING ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS BRING LESLIE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 3-4 DAYS AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ALSO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPING BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HOURS\r\nAND REMAINS SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE SINCE IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF LESLIE WILL EVOLVE IN THE SHORT-TERM.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSEST THE LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH IS HISTORICALLY\r\nTHE BEST PERFORMING INTENSITY MODEL.\r\n \r\nAFTER HESITATING THIS MORNING...LESLIE HAS RESUMED A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION AT AROUND 9 KT.  THE TROPICAL STORM SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS\r\nAS IT MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THERE IS MORE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE AFTER 48 HOURS THAN THERE WAS THIS MORNING.  THE ECMWF AND\r\nGFS MODEL TRACKS ARE NOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES APART...WITH THE GFS\r\nALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE ECMWF THE\r\nWESTERNMOST MODEL.  GIVEN THIS SPREAD...THE UPDATED TRACK IS\r\nBETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\nBECAUSE OF THE INCREASED SPREAD...THERE IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENCE\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST THAN BEFORE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 22.4N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 23.3N  62.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 24.6N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 25.5N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 26.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 26.9N  62.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 28.0N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 29.5N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS ARE QUITE COLD...SUGGESTING VIGOROUS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES AS\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN AMORPHOUS BLOB.  SINCE\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 50\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROHIBITIVE\r\nFOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nAFTERWARDS...DYNAMICAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nWILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH INCREASING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN\r\nCLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nAN SSM/IS IMAGE FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS\r\nLOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE\r\nWORKING BEST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.  EVEN WITH THE\r\nSLIGHT NORTHWARD RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...\r\n325/9...IS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LESLIE IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...HOWEVER...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE STORM IS LIKELY TO SLOW DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT TOO\r\nDIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCA.  THIS IS BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN FORECASTS AND THE ECMWF TRACK...WITH THE LATTER MODEL BEING\r\nFASTER THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 23.4N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 24.4N  62.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 25.4N  62.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 26.0N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 26.6N  62.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 27.5N  62.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 28.5N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 30.0N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nA TREMENDOUS BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTAINING CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES OF -84C TO -88C HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS. THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS\r\nGRADUALLY BEEN EXPANDING NORTHWARD...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nINDICATING. RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED JUST INSIDE THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE MASSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES USING A SHEAR PATTERN ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nT3.0/45 KT FROM SAB...PLUS AN ADT ESTIMATE T3.2/49 KT. GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER...THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/07 KT. OTHER THAN A FEW WOBBLES\r\nHERE AND THERE...LESLIE HAS REMAINED BASICALLY ON TRACK. OVER THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nTHAT LESLIE WILL MOVE TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nIS BEING INDUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 65W. AS THE\r\nTROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE IT TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY ON\r\nDAYS 3 AND 4. HOWEVER...BY DAY 5...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER-LOW\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND\r\nACT TO LIFT LESLIE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FAIRLY\r\nTIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY INDICATING MORE THAN 20 KT OF\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE...WHICH APPEARS TO\r\nBE OVERDONE DUE TO THE 500 KM RADIUS USED BY THAT MODEL TO COMPUTE\r\nSHEAR. THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY ABOUT 15\r\nKT OF SHEAR...WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS\r\nAMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE TO\r\nNEAR 30 KT FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHESE SHEAR VALUES MAY BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE...EVEN AN INCREASE IN\r\nTO AROUND 20 KT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HINDER THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER LESLIE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES BETWEEN THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 50W ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CREATE CONDITIONS MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT AT DAY 5 WHERE THE\r\nFORECAST IS HIGHER...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 23.8N  62.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 24.7N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 25.5N  62.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 26.1N  62.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 26.6N  62.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 27.6N  62.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 28.7N  63.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 30.8N  64.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...ACCORDING TO ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS. THIS SHEAR HAS CAUSED\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE COLD CLOUD TOPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS THIS CYCLE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50\r\nKT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING A LITTLE OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO RELAX AND GIVEN THAT THE OTHER ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...LESLIE WILL LIKELY HAVE AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO GAIN STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF LESLIE WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK. BLENDING THE MICROWAVE DATA WITH EARLIER SATELLITE FIXES\r\nYIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/7. LESLIE IS CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE EAST...CAUSING THE STEERING CURRENTS TO\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE...LESLIE IS ONLY\r\nEXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE 24 TO 72 HOUR TIME PERIOD.\r\nLATE IN THE WEEK...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST OF LESLIE\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD\r\nAT A FASTER PACE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nLARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT\r\nBERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 24.4N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 25.2N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 25.8N  63.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 26.3N  63.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 26.8N  63.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 27.7N  63.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 29.0N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 31.5N  64.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nLESLIE RECENTLY...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL HIGHLY\r\nASYMMETRIC DUE TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO LET UP\r\nMUCH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...SO LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE\r\nLITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN THAT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nINTENSIFY. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nLESLIE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND MOST OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n330/3. A VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS AS LESLIE REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. BY THE END OF THE\r\nWEEK...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WHICH SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT A\r\nFASTER PACE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE WEST AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...AND THERE IS NOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT AT DAY 5. THIS FORECAST LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.\r\n  \r\nDUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CYCLONE AND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nLARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT\r\nBERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 1340 UTC\r\nASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 24.0N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 24.6N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 25.3N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 25.8N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 26.3N  63.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 27.0N  63.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 28.1N  63.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 30.5N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO KEEP THE STORM FROM BECOMING\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION.  HOWEVER...A\r\nRECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING HAS\r\nOCCURRED...AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 55 KT.  THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS.  LATER ON...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nINSISTENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS THE GFS DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED AND\r\nSYMMETRICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE BECOMING ESTABLISHED\r\nOVER LESLIE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE LATEST LGEM AND SHIPS PREDICTIONS.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE STORM\r\nHAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...IF AT ALL...SO THE INTIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS STATIONARY.  LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUITE SLOWLY IN A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION WHILE IT REMAINS IN VERY WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY ABOUT 5\r\nDAYS...THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nU.S. AND AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD INDUCE A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n \r\nBUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT WAVES GREATER THAN 12 FEET HIGH EXTEND\r\nSOME 300-400 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS\r\nPROPAGATING AWAY FROM LESLIE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 24.0N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 24.6N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 25.3N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 25.8N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 26.3N  63.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 27.2N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 28.5N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 31.0N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSHEARED CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD HAS TAKEN ON A SMOOTHER\r\nAPPEARANCE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCI-VALUES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES THAT ARRIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT LESLIE HAD...IN FACT...MOVED LITTLE...BUT WAS ALSO LOCATED A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST. THE GENERAL MOTION TREND OF THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD MASS NOW SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE HAS RESUMED A SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION OF 360/03 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE-DERIVED\r\nWINDS INDICATE A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LESLIE HAS\r\nBYPASSED THE CYCLONE WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OFF THE CAROLINAS IS\r\nBUILDING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE INCREASED RIDGING\r\nTO THE NORTH OF LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nFORWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...A LARGE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS\r\nFORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY DAY 5\r\nAND GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH DAY 3...AND THEN IS BACK ON TRACK AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.\r\n\r\nLITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 36 HOURS DUE TO\r\nMODERATE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IMPINGING ON THE\r\nCYCLONE. HOWEVER...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT 48 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND AS THE SHEAR DECREASES AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE BUILDS OVER LESLIE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG 50W LONGITUDE...IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE ON DAY 5. THE GFS-BASED\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK\r\nAT DAYS 4-5 CAUSED BY 200/250 MB WARMING DUE TO THE GFS MODEL\r\nMAKING LESLIE A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. IN\r\nFACT...THE ECMWF ALSO IS FORECASTING SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nLESLIE ON DAYS 4-5...AS INDICATED BY 130-KT 850 MB WINDS ON DAY 5.\r\nTHE GFS IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTH WITH 115-KT 850 MB WINDS ALSO ON DAY\r\n5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS \r\nADVISORY...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY ON DAY 5...WHICH\r\nIS CLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON.\r\n \r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN ALL QUADRANTS BASED ON A 04/0054 UTC\r\nASCAT OVERPASS AND A 37-KT WIND REPORT FROM SHIP DPJK...WHICH WAS\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 180 NMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER. DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF\r\nLESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY\r\nFROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 24.7N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 25.3N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 25.9N  62.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 26.4N  62.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 26.7N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 27.6N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 29.1N  64.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 32.0N  65.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF ABOUT 20 KT OF\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURE NOW MORE\r\nRESEMBLES A CURVED BAND PATTERN. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO CAUSE THE\r\nCIRCULATION TO BE VERTICALLY TILTED AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nDISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE WEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nPOOR VERTICAL ALIGNMENT OF LESLIE AND THE FORECAST SHEAR...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN HIGH DURING THAT TIME. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN AND THE NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH\r\nMORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR LESLIE TO GAIN\r\nSTRENGTH. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS BETWEEN LGEM AND HWRF GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT AND IS LOCATED\r\nIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE STEERING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEREFORE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE DRIFTING NORTHWARD DURING THAT TIME. BY THE END OF THE\r\nWEEK...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF LESLIE. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO FIRST TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TV15 AND TVCA.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nLARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 25.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 25.5N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 26.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 26.5N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 26.8N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 27.5N  63.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 29.2N  64.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 33.0N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF LESLIE\r\nDURING THE DAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISPLACED\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER. THE CI-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB REMAIN 3.5 AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED\r\nBIAS-CORRECTED WINDS OF 50-55 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 55 KT. 20 KT OF WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS\r\nANALYZED BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSIS...CONTINUES TO BE\r\nTHE PRIMARY INHIBITING FACTOR FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY...THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI-RSMAS OCEAN\r\nANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE HEAT CONTENT OF THE OCEAN BELOW LESLIE\r\nIS HIGH...WHICH MAY LIMIT THE IMPACTS OF COLD WATER UPWELLING FROM\r\nTHE SLOW-MOVING CYCLONE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION AFTER 36 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM MODEL\r\nFORECAST. BY DAY 5...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF\r\nTHE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT AROUND THE CYCLONE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED DOWN AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST DURING THE\r\nDAY...LESLIE CONTINUES TO DRIFT GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND THE LONG-\r\nTERM INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/3. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL A RIDGE BEGINS TO\r\nBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...IMPARTING A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY MOTION. LESLIE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS\r\nIT MOVES AROUND THIS RIDGE ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WESTWARD TRACK\r\nTHIS CYCLE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n\r\nTHE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON A 1320 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF LESLIE AND ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nLARGE SWELLS PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 25.3N  62.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 25.7N  62.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 26.1N  62.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 26.5N  62.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 26.9N  62.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 27.5N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 29.5N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 34.0N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN BURSTING NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nLESLIE FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CONVECTION HAS TAKEN ON THE\r\nSHAPE OF A NASCENT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...BUT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT CONTINUES TO PUSH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS\r\nEASTWARD.  TRMM AND SSM/IS IMAGES...FROM 2223 AND 0013 UTC\r\nRESPECTIVELY...SUGGEST SOME RECENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AS\r\nEVIDENCED BY THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THIS\r\nFEATURE CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED 20-30 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A\r\n0000 UTC SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nA SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS A LARGE-SCALE\r\nANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER LESLIE. THE DEEP OCEANIC MIXED LAYER ALONG\r\nTHE TRACK OF THE SLOW-MOVING STORM SHOULD ALSO MINIMIZE THE EFFECTS\r\nOF UPWELLING.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AROUND THE TIME\r\nTHE SHEAR RELAXES...BUT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD INITIALLY\r\nBE SLOW DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nLESLIE APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED A BIT TO THE LEFT TODAY...AND IS\r\nPLODDING ALONG TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 345/02.  THE CYCLONE IS IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES. \r\nWHILE THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A NET NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW OVER\r\nLESLIE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE STORM IS LIKELY TO MAKE ONLY\r\nSLOW PROGRESS DUE TO A WEAK BLOCKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nSLIDING BY TO THE NORTH.  AS THAT RIDGE SHIFTS AND BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST IN 48-72 HOURS...LESLIE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD MORE\r\nQUICKLY.  THE FLOW BETWEEN THIS SAME RIDGE AND AN AMPLIFYING\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST ON DAYS\r\n4-5 WILL BEGIN TO EJECT LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BIT\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 48 HOURS IN DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nLATEST GFS RUN...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE EAST AT LATER TIMES. \r\nTHIS IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL TVCA CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nLESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECAST TO GROW FURTHER\r\nIN SIZE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...IN COMBINATION WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP\r\nTO GENERATE LARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES EAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 25.2N  62.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 25.6N  62.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 26.1N  63.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 26.7N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 27.5N  63.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 30.0N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 35.0N  65.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER DEVELOPING A CDO-LIKE FEATURE EARLIER...THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nNOW DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...LIKELY\r\nDUE TO CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 20 KT. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB. ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nBELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STEADIER INTENSIFICATION AFTER THAT TIME...AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nIT STILL APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED A BIT TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL ROTATION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BUT THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF 340/02 IS UNCERTAIN GIVEN A LACK OF\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FOR THE TRACK FORECAST. LESLIE IS CAUGHT IN A REGION OF\r\nWEAK STEERING BETWEEN TWO WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...A TROUGH BEGINS TO AMPLIFY OVER\r\nEASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST OF\r\nLESLIE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD ACCELERATION. WHILE\r\nTHERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND HEADING LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED\r\nTOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESLIE TURNING A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE EAST OF DUE NORTH BY DAY 5 WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE RIGHT AT DAY 5. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE LATEST TVCA CONSENSUS AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE\r\nDURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nCOMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE\r\nLARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED\r\nON OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 25.4N  62.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 25.8N  63.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 26.2N  63.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 26.6N  63.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 26.9N  63.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 28.2N  64.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 31.5N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 37.5N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING LESLIE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING\r\nTHIS MORNING...WHICH HAS ALLOWED A BANDING EYE FEATURE TO DEVELOP\r\nIN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER...A 0944 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE WAS DISPLACED ABOUT\r\n12-18 NMI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nLATEST ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.3/72 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT\r\nIS A BLEND OF THESE VALUES...AND LESLIE IS BEING HELD JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY DUE TO THE EASTWARD-TILTED VORTEX COLUMN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 BASED ON MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE FIXES. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WOBBLE SLOWLY\r\nALONG A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR\r\nSO DUE TO A BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nAFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF\r\nSOUTHERN CANADA AND DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE U.S. EAST COAST...\r\nWHICH SHOULD ACT TO ACCELERATE LESLIE TOWARD THE NORTH BY 96\r\nHOURS...AND TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT ONLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND\r\nREMAINS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS VERY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR\r\nTHROUGH AT LEAST 96 HOURS. THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR IS\r\nCOLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD\r\nSPEED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT LESLIE COULD INTENSIFY MORE QUICKLY THAN\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN LEVEL OFF IN 72-96\r\nHOURS DUE TO UPWELLING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nSYMPTOMS OF NEGATIVE FEEDBACK CAUSED BY THE GFS MODEL 200 MB\r\nWARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE GFS...ECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS\r\nGENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THIS STRENGTHENING TREND HAS BEEN FOLLOWED IN THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nCOMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE\r\nLARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 25.7N  62.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 26.0N  62.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 26.5N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 26.8N  63.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 27.2N  63.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 29.0N  64.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 32.4N  64.7W   95 KT 110 MPH...NEAR BERMUDA\r\n120H  10/1200Z 39.5N  62.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CIRRUS OUTFLOW OF LESLIE HAS EXPANDED BY MORE THAN 100 NMI TO\r\nTHE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...INDICATING THAT THE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE HAS DECREASED. A BANDING EYE\r\nFEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 1700\r\nUTC...BUT A RECENT BURST OF EYEWALL CONVECTION HAS OBSCURED THE\r\nEYE. SSMIS AND TRMM MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE HAS DEVELOPED AND A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE COULD\r\nBE UNDERWAY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN\r\nAVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE OF T4.3/72 KT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/02 KT. LESLIE HAS WOBBLED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THAT\r\nERRATIC MOTION IS LIKELY JUST DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE EYE. THE\r\nLATEST GFS FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST...WHILE\r\nTHE ECMWF FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. SINCE THESE TWO MODELS\r\nARE NOW CONVERGING CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH\r\nLIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 96 HOURS. COLD WATER UPWELLING\r\nBENEATH THE CYCLONE DUE TO ITS VERY SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR LURKING JUST TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE NEGATIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES AS A\r\nRESULT OF THE GFS MODEL CREATING A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE...WHICH\r\nFURTHER GENERATES SIGNIFICANT 200 MB WARMING AFTER 72 HOURS. THE\r\nECMWF... UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A STRONG\r\nHURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS\r\nREMAINS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nCOMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE\r\nLARGE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TOWARD BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST FOR THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 25.9N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 26.1N  62.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 26.5N  63.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 26.8N  63.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 27.2N  63.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 29.3N  64.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 34.0N  64.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 42.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nRECENT TRMM AND SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS NOT\r\nFORMED A CLOSED EYEWALL...AND IN FACT...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION\r\nHAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED.  THERE IS STILL SOME INDICATION OF\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AS WELL...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nLOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING HELD AT 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.7/4.3.\r\n\r\nBASED ON RECENT TRMM MICROWAVE FIXES...THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n010/2 KT.  LESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW NORTHWARD CREEP FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD GAIN SOME NORTHWARD MOMENTUM BY DAY 3 ONCE A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFS MODEL HAS\r\nSHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST ON THIS CYCLE AND IS THE EASTERNMOST AND\r\nSLOWEST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  SINCE THIS\r\nHAS NOT YET TURNED INTO A CONSISTENT TREND...THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nBEING KEPT CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO DRY AIR LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  A CROSS SECTION BASED ON GFS MODEL DATA SHOWS AIR WITH\r\nRELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT ABUTTING AGAINST THE\r\nCIRCULATION IN THE 250-500 MB LAYER.  SINCE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO AFFECT LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE DRY\r\nAIR COULD CONTINUE TO SEEP INTO THE CIRCULATION.  IN ADDITION...\r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATES THAT THE SEA SURFACE BENEATH LESLIE IS\r\nCOOLING DUE TO UPWELLING...AND THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CHANGE AS LONG\r\nAS THE HURRICANE MOVES SO SLOWLY.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nMOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND INDICATES GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nLESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE WIND FIELD OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nCOMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...WILL HELP TO GENERATE\r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nFOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 26.2N  62.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 26.4N  62.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 26.8N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 27.1N  63.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 27.7N  63.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 30.5N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 35.5N  63.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 44.0N  59.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE REMAINS RAGGED...WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF THE CENTER. THE OUTFLOW\r\nAPPEARS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nFROM AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF LESLIE.\r\nIN ADDITION...THE LACK OF MOTION IS RESULTING IN SOME COOLING OF THE\r\nSEA SURFACE NEAR THE CYCLONE...AS EVIDENCED BY A 1C SST DECREASE IN\r\nTHE LAST 24 HOURS AT NOAA BUOY 41049. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n65 KT BASED ON THE LASTEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. \r\n\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR...AND\r\nUPWELLING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR BEGINS TO DECREASE AND\r\nLESLIE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AS IT BEGINS TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS HARDLY MOVED OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 360/01 AS THE CYCLONE IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A SLOW NORTHWARD TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND THE TREND OF\r\nTHE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF LESLIE\r\nEARLY ON AND A SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND/OR LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS IS ON THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS THE TROUGH MISSING\r\nLESLIE ENTIRELY. AT THE OTHER EXTREME IS THE GFDL...WHICH IS A FAST\r\nOUTLIER THAT SHOWS LESLIE BEING CAPTURED BY THE TROUGH AT END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD. THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS WELL TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nAND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE\r\nNHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS STILL FASTER\r\nAND TO THE LEFT OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-\r\nRANGE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 0153 UTC ASCAT PASS\r\nAND DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 40149. LESLIE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO GROW IN SIZE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE\r\nWIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 26.3N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 26.5N  62.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 26.7N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 27.1N  62.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 27.7N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 31.0N  63.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 36.5N  61.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 43.0N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE IS BARELY A\r\nHURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. LESLIE HAS A VERY\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION BUT LACKS AN INNER CORE.  MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO WESTERLY WIND SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN VERY STUBBORN IN FORECASTING A RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...\r\nALTHOUGH THAT HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET.  HOWEVER...GIVING CREDIT TO\r\nTHESE MODELS...AND THE FACT THAT THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS ALSO DECREASE THE SHEAR...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED\r\nBY THE FACT THAT LESLIE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE COOLER WATERS\r\nWHICH RESULTED FROM THE UPWELLING.   \r\n\r\nLESLIE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE OR MEANDERING NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT\r\nFORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO REDEVELOP THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nEAST OF LESLIE AND BRING A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LESLIE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORWARD SPEED...\r\nTHE GENERAL MODEL TREND IS FOR A NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS NEAR BERMUDA\r\nBUT THE CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS SHOW A\r\nTRACK EAST OF BERMUDA. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 26.4N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 26.5N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 26.8N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 27.3N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 28.2N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 31.2N  62.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 35.0N  61.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 40.0N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":30,"Date":"2012-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION DURING THE DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION THAT THE OVERALL\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE SMALLER. THERE IS A CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nWRAPPING AROUND A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHICH GIVES THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF BETTER ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA DOES NOT\r\nSHOW A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE AT THIS TIME. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS.\r\nSINCE LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...IT IS PRODUCING UPWELLING\r\nRESULTING IN LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA. THE\r\nUPWELLING IN COMBINATION WITH THE SHEAR WOULD NOT FAVOR ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING UNTIL LESLIE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER\r\nUNDISTURBED WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING BEGINNING IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLESLIE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING\r\nCURRENTS...AND CONSEQUENTLY IT HAS REMAINED PRACTICALLY STATIONARY\r\nALL DAY. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS OR OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE THAT LESLIE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE FASTER ANY TIME SOON. IN\r\nFACT...THE NHC FORECAST MOVES LESLIE NORTHWARD ONLY 120 NAUTICAL\r\nMILES IN TWO DAYS.  BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AND THIS FEATURE IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORCE THE\r\nHURRICANE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK...AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF\r\nGLOBAL MODELS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE WHOLE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT EASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...BUT THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO MAKE THAT EASTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT MORE GRADUALLY.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 26.5N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 26.6N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 27.0N  62.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 27.5N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 28.5N  62.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 32.0N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 35.5N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 41.5N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":31,"Date":"2012-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF\r\nLESLIE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING\r\nTO FEATURE A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER\r\nTHAN -70C.  HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGES PRIOR TO 0000 UTC DID NOT\r\nSHOW A WELL-DEFINED EYE OR EYEWALL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT...WHILE SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE 60-65 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND IMPROVING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nLESLIE HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT REMAINS\r\nIN AN AREA OF LIGHT-TO-NON-EXISTENT STEERING CURRENTS.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR AND ALLOW LESLIE TO BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION.  IN THE\r\nLONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND REACH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 72 HR. \r\nTHIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE NORTHWARD AND THEN EVENTUALLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL NOTABLY\r\nFASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...AND THE GFS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HR COMPROMISES\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...\r\nAND THUS THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nLESLIE HAS MOVED SLOWLY ENOUGH FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS TO HAVE\r\nUPWELLED COLD OCEAN WATER TO THE SURFACE.  REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY\r\n41049 INDICATE THAT THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE HAS DECREASED FROM\r\n29C TO 26C-27C...WHILE MICROWAVE-BASED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST TEMPERATURES OF 24C-25C UNDER THE CORE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  AT BEST...LITTLE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL\r\nLESLIE MOVES NORTH OF THE COLD WATER...AND SOME WEAKENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FROM 12-36 HR IS REDUCED FROM\r\nTHAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE PRESENCE OF THE COLD\r\nWATER.  FROM 36-72 HR...LESLIE SHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER WATERS AND\r\nSTRENGTHEN...AND THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST DURING THIS TIME.  INCREASING SHEAR AND THE START OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING AFTER THE 72 HR\r\nPOINT.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 26.5N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 26.8N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 27.2N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 28.0N  62.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 29.3N  62.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 33.0N  61.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 37.0N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 43.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Leslie","Adv":32,"Date":"2012-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF LESLIE HAS DEGRADED SOMEWHAT OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. THE EARLIER CDO FEATURE HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED AND\r\nMOST OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER IN SOME RAGGED BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65\r\nKT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. A NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING LESLIE LATER THIS\r\nMORNING AND PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE WINDS AND ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT SOME LIGHT\r\nTO MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE CYCLONE. THE \r\nSHEAR ALONG WITH THE DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE INNER CORE AND\r\nCOOLING SSTS DUE TO UPWELLING SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE\r\nBEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD WARMER WATERS...THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE\r\nNEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT\r\n48 AND 72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST IVCN CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES AND WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 SUGGEST\r\nTHAT LESLIE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. A STEADIER NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY 24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE NORTH OF LESLIE BEGINS\r\nTO MOVE EASTWARD AND AMPLIFY. AFTER 48 HOURS...AN ACCELERATION\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS LESLIE\r\nINTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE STILL SHOWS SOME SPREAD IN FORWARD SPEED AND HEADING...\r\nESPECIALLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH THE GFDL...WHILE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS\r\nTRENDED FASTER AND LEFT TOWARD THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE END\r\nRESULT IS THAT THE LATEST TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND\r\nGFS MODELS. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 26.7N  62.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 26.9N  62.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 27.6N  62.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 28.6N  62.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 30.1N  62.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 33.7N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 38.5N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 46.0N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":33,"Date":"2012-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY TOO LONG AND THE OCEAN BENEATH HAS\r\nCOOLED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN FACT...ONE OF THE AXBT SONDES LAUNCHED FROM\r\nTHE NOAA PLANE CURRENTLY IN LESLIE MEASURED A SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE OF 24.5 DEGREES CELSIUS. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS DIMINISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. THE\r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n981 MB...BUT BOTH SFMR AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS ONLY SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS.  ONCE LESLIE MOVES AWAY FROM THE\r\nCOOL POOL IT HAS CREATED FOR ITSELF...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE THE\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE LOW.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LESLIE SHOULD HAVE\r\nLOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A STRONG POST-TROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO RESULTING IN\r\nLESLIE BEING NEARLY STATIONARY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT\r\nEVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH THIS\r\nSOLUTION PRIMARILY IN THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE\r\nECMWF.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 26.8N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 27.1N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 28.0N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 29.0N  62.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 30.5N  61.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 33.3N  60.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 39.0N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 45.5N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":34,"Date":"2012-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT LESLIE HAS BEGUN\r\nTO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nESTIMATED TO BE AT 55 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS PASSING JUST EAST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 WHICH REPORTED\r\nNORTHERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB.\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CLEARLY SHOW A LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nWITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT LESLIE STILL LACKS AN INNER CORE.  SHIP AND BUOY\r\nOBSERVATIONS...AS WELL AS SST MICROWAVE DATA...ARE INDICATING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS TO THE NORTH OF\r\nLESLIE. SINCE THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED...ONCE LESLIE MOVES OVER\r\nTHESE WARMER WATERS IN A DAY OR SO...THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD\r\nTHAT IT WILL REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH. IN FACT...MOST OF THE\r\nCYCLONES IN THE ATLANTIC THIS YEAR THAT HAVE REACHED HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY HAVE DONE SO AS THEY APPROACH 30 DEGREES NORTH AND NOT IN\r\nTHE DEEP TROPICS.            \r\n\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND CANADA. THIS TROUGH SHOULD ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW\r\nTHAT EVENTUALLY WILL FORCE LESLIE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nSINCE THE GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 27.4N  62.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 28.0N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 28.8N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 30.2N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 31.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 35.0N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 41.0N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 47.0N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":35,"Date":"2012-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM NOAA P-3 AND G-IV HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF LESLIE THIS\r\nEVENING.  THE STORM CURRENTLY LACKS AN INNER CORE...AS THE RADIUS\r\nOF MAXIMUM WINDS IS NOW ON THE ORDER OF 75 N MI.  IN ADDITION...\r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WELL-DEFINED CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AT A LARGE DISTANCE\r\nFROM THE CENTER.  DROPSONDE DATA AND SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT\r\nAND NOAA BUOY DATA.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/3.  LESLIE IS STILL EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENTS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE WEST OF LESLIE TO BREAK DOWN AS A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR\r\nLESLIE SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...WITH THE CENTER PASSING EAST OF BERMUDA BETWEEN\r\n36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nLESLIE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THERE IS SOME\r\nSPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW LESLIE\r\nSLOWING AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A FASTER\r\nMOTION.  THE LATTER PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPROMISES\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  IT IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR AND A LITTLE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED.  ON THE PLUS SIDE...\r\nLESLIE SHOULD BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE COLD WATER IT HAS UPWELLED...\r\nAND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR.  ON THE MINUS SIDE...THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IS LIKELY\r\nNOT CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE ISSUES WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. \r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOW A SLOWER RATE OF DEVELOPMENT TO THE\r\nPEAK INTENSITY IN 72 HR THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  AFTER 72 HR...\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nCOMPLETE BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 27.6N  62.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 28.2N  62.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 29.5N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 31.0N  61.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 32.7N  61.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 37.0N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 43.0N  55.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 48.0N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":36,"Date":"2012-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE SHOWED SOME SIGNS OF PERHAPS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER\r\nTONIGHT...WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME\r\nMORE RAGGED AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE DISPLACED WEST AND NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER LOCATION. DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT MISSIONS LAST\r\nNIGHT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE\r\nSOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY HINDERING\r\nINTENSIFICATION FOR THE TIME BEING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS DRY AIR AND\r\nRELATIVELY COOL WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...AS LESLIE MOVES OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS...STEADIER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 LESLIE SHOULD WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR INCREASES WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nLESLIE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. LESLIE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH\r\nTHE PERIOD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT WITH A SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED. THIS REPRESENTS A TREND TOWARD THE LATEST\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH FOR THIS CYCLE GENERALLY SHOWS MORE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN LESLIE AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT TRIES TO CUT\r\nOFF EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. HOWEVER...THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nIS STILL A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND LIES ALONG THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE LATE IN THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE WAVES AND\r\nLIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 28.1N  62.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 28.9N  62.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 30.3N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 31.9N  61.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 33.6N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 38.5N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 44.5N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0600Z 48.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":37,"Date":"2012-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. LESLIE DOES NOT HAVE AN INNER CORE AND MOST OF\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS REMOVED\r\nFROM THE CENTER. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS\r\nBEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING AND REPORTED THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ARE ABOUT 55 KNOTS...AND THE PRESSURE HAS\r\nRISEN TO\r\n988 MB. SINCE LESLIE IS STILL FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES...THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST FOR TODAY.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS PLENTY OF WARM WATER AHEAD OF LESLIE...AND AS\r\nSOON AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THESE WATERS...THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nLESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS WILL INCREASE. LESLIE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD AT 5 TO 7 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nAPPROACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN A DAY OR SO...AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE\r\nAND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...WHICH IN FACT IS VERY TIGHT...REMAINS WELL EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS AND\r\nTHERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE\r\nWAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT\r\nWEEK.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 28.6N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 29.5N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 31.2N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 32.8N  61.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 34.5N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 40.5N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 45.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1200Z 47.0N  51.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":38,"Date":"2012-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME\r\nSYMMETRIC AROUND A LARGE CLOUDLESS CENTER OF CIRCULATION...\r\nCOMMONLY REFERRED TO AS A TRUCK TIRE/DOUGHNUT-TYPE PATTERN. SINCE\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT\r\nINCREASED YET...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS.\r\nGIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS PERFECTLY ESTABLISHED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...AND THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WARM\r\nWATERS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LESLIE TO REGAIN HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS IN A DAY OR SO.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD OCCUR BY\r\nDAY 4 WHEN LESLIE IS NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS. A LARGE\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH IS RAPIDLY AMPLIFYING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE LESLIE TO RECURVE AND INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS...BUT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IN SPEED\r\nBY 96 HOURS WHEN LESLIE IS ABOUT TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS DURING THE FIRST THREE\r\nDAYS...AND THEN LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE\r\nWAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT\r\nWEEK.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 29.4N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 30.4N  62.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 32.2N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 34.0N  61.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 36.0N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 44.0N  56.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 46.0N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1800Z 48.0N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":39,"Date":"2012-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nLESLIE HAS AGAIN BECOME ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION\r\nCURRENTLY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS SATELLITE\r\nCONSENSUS ESTIMATE WAS 58 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/7.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ARE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  INCREASING SOUTHERLY AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER LESLIE TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A MUCH\r\nFASTER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AS LESLIE UNDERGOES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ENOUGH THAT IT\r\nIS IMPOSSIBLE TO FOLLOW IT AND MAINTAIN ANY CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  THUS...THE 72-120 HR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE SLOWER PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MUCH FASTER MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nLESLIE CURRENTLY HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND\r\nIT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WARM WATER/LIGHT WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRENGTHENING...\r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STORM STRUCTURE AND ISSUES WITH DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT ARGUE AGAINST RAPID DEVELOPMENT.  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE LESS STRENGTHENING THAN 6 HR AGO...SO THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n75 KT IN 48 HR.  THIS PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN AFTER 48 HR AND BE COMPLETE\r\nBY 72-96 HR...WITH LESLIE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THIS PROCESS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND FIELD OF LESLIE...COMBINED WITH ITS EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE LONG-PERIOD SWELLS THAT WILL PRODUCE LARGE\r\nWAVES AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH\r\nOF THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT\r\nWEEK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 30.1N  62.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 31.3N  62.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 33.2N  61.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 35.3N  60.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 38.5N  59.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 46.0N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 49.0N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/0000Z 51.5N  40.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":40,"Date":"2012-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE DECREASED IN COVERAGE LATE\r\nIN THE EVENING...HOWEVER A NEW BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND IT IS NOW WRAPPING AROUND THE \r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED \r\nA LARGE AREA OF 40-45 KT WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED\r\nAT 55 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nAS LESLIE MOVES NORTHWARD IT SHOULD FINALLY LEAVE THE AREA OF COOLER\r\nWATERS CAUSED BY UPWELLING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  AS THIS\r\nOCCURS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THESE CONDITIONS FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...HOWEVER\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AND ISSUES WITH DRY \r\nAIR ENTRAINMENT...LESLIE MAY HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY IN STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST CALLS SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEED...BUT LESS\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LESLIE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN\r\nINTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN 48 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLY TUESDAY. THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW IS PREDICTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  LESLIE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST AS A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS AND THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN TRENDED TOWARD\r\nA FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE 3 TO 5 DAY FORECAST PERIODS.  THIS HAS\r\nRESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST AT 72\r\nTHROUGH 120 H.  HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nPORTION IS STILL SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO\r\nMAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF\r\nAND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 30.8N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 32.4N  62.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 34.5N  61.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 37.5N  60.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 42.0N  58.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 52.0N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 59.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/0600Z 61.0N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":41,"Date":"2012-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS A VERY BROAD EYE AS EVIDENCED BY BERMUDA RADAR\r\nOBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWED 40-45 KT WINDS...AND ENHANCED IR DATA SHOWED\r\nSOME INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS SURROUNDING THE\r\nCENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nSINCE LESLIE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...IT MAY HAVE\r\nDIFFICULTY RE-INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COOLER\r\nWATERS IT UPWELLED.  HOWEVER...UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nREGAINING HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS\r\nALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT LESLIE TO BE QUITE DEEP BUT\r\nBECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE...SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 2-3 DAYS AS IT MOVES\r\nOVER THE ATLANTIC.  BY DAY 5 THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A\r\nLARGE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF SCANDANAVIA.\r\n\r\nLESLIE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INTIAL\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 010/9.  AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nMOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN 3-4 DAYS...THE POST-\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE HIGHER\r\nLATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAST AS THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.   \r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF\r\nAND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 32.0N  62.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 33.6N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 36.3N  60.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 40.2N  59.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 46.5N  55.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 58.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 62.0N  20.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/1200Z...MERGED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":42,"Date":"2012-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.5 AT\r\n18Z...SINCE THEN THE COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT AND THE\r\nBANDING HAS BECOME LESS SOLID.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n50 KT.  LESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD MITIGATE AGAINST OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  BOTH THE TROPICAL AND\r\nGLOBAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT LESLIE WILL BE AT OR AT LEAST NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...SSTS COOL AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES MARKEDLY...BUT\r\nTHE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LESLIE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A\r\nVIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS. \r\nBASED ON THE GFS AND ECMWF FIELDS...LESLIE WILL BE MERGING WITH A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM ABOUT THE TIME IT REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/12. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  AS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN 3-4\r\nDAYS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN\r\nTHE HIGHER LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  \r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF\r\nAND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 33.4N  62.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 35.1N  61.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 38.5N  60.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 44.1N  56.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 51.0N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 60.0N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 63.5N   9.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":43,"Date":"2012-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FRIDAY TO MONDAY IN LAST PARAGRAPH \r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF LESLIE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY ERODE\r\nAND CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO WARM SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT AND T3.5/55\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/14. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING. LESLIE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS EAST. BY 24 HOURS...LESLIE IS\r\nFORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM\r\nTHE WEST AND THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE EAST. BY DAYS 3-4...\r\nLESLIE WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nEASTWARD IN THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. ABSORPTION BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BY DAY 5 OVER THE NORTH SEA.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLESLIE CONTINUES TO LACK ANY INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION AND ALSO HAS\r\nA BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD...THE ADDITIONAL\r\nFORWARD SPEED COMPONENT SHOULD INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE LESLIE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AT NEARLY\r\n35 KT BY 36 HOURS...THIS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO ACHIEVE\r\nHURRICANE STATUS AGAIN BEFORE THE CYCLONE AFFECTS SOUTHEASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nLESLIE WILL TRANSITION INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AFTER\r\nIT MERGES WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BY DAY 2. LESLIE WILL REMAIN\r\nA POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON DAY 5.\r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF\r\nAND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OWING TO THE INCREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF LESLIE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...A HURRICANE WATCH\r\nWILL LIKELY REQUIRED EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...INCLUDING THE AVALON PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 34.4N  61.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 36.8N  60.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 41.3N  58.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 47.5N  53.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 54.1N  46.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 62.5N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 62.5N   3.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":44,"Date":"2012-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM DURING\r\nTHE PAST SIX HOURS AND THE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONE PRIMARY BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENT\r\nASCAT DATA AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. LESLIE HAS ABOUT 12-18 HOURS OVER\r\nWARM WATERS AND IN FAVORABLE SHEAR CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...HOWEVER...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE\r\nWIND FIELD AND LACK OF AN INNER CORE SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION. LATER TODAY...LESLIE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ITS\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT LESLIE COULD GAIN STRENGTH FROM BAROCLINIC\r\nPROCESSES. THE NHC FORECAST...THEREFORE...CALLS FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND ALTHOUGH NOT\r\nEXPLICITLY SHOWN...THE CYCLONE COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY\r\nBEFORE IT NEARS NEWFOUNDLAND. IT IS AROUND THAT TIME THAT LESLIE\r\nIS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KT. INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEARING THE\r\nEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE LESLIE TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD IN STRONG\r\nWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN LATITUDES.\r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF\r\nAND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE CANADIAN HURRICANE CENTER HAS ISSUED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  WARNINGS MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 35.7N  61.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 38.8N  59.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 44.5N  56.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 51.9N  50.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 58.5N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 63.0N  20.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":45,"Date":"2012-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE NEVER DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...AND CONTINUES AS A LARGE\r\nSPRAWLING CYCLONE WITH MOST OT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nWITHIN A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  GIVEN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS.\r\nLESLIE NEVER INTENSIFIED AS SUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS A FEW DAYS\r\nAGO...AND THERE IS LITTLE TIME REMAINING FOR LESLIE TO INTENSIFY AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE SINCE IT IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WINDS BY 10 KNOTS...BUT THIS\r\nINTENSIFICATION...IF IT OCCURS...WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION OF 030 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. \r\nSINCE LESLIE IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FAST SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW AHEAD OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH...THIS GENERAL TRACK\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING THE CENTER OF LESLIE\r\nACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  IT IS AROUND\r\nTHAT TIME THAT LESLIE IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...AND THEN REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH SURF\r\nAND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 37.0N  60.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 41.4N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 48.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 55.0N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 60.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":46,"Date":"2012-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED\r\nVERY MUCH...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A NEARBY SHIP REPORT\r\nINDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS WINDS OF 60 KNOTS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT\r\nTHE WINDS ARE DECREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ASYMMETRY\r\nOF THE WINDS AND THE RAIN SHIELD SUGGEST THAT LESLIE IS BEGINNING\r\nTO SLOWLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN\r\nINTENSITY ARE ANTICIPATED BEFORE LESLIE REACHES SOUTHEASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND EARLY TUESDAY. ONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...\r\nIT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT \r\nFEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS ACCELERATED AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAT ABOUT 30 KNOTS...EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LEVEL JET EAST OF THE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO\r\nCROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS. THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH\r\nSURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 40.0N  59.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 44.4N  56.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 51.5N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 58.0N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 62.5N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 62.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":47,"Date":"2012-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY OTHER THAN CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT\r\nLESLIE HAS WINDS OF AT LEAST 60 KT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT DATA FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44139 LOCATED\r\nABOUT 100 NMI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE HAVE LIKELY SHIFTED TO THE\r\nEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SINCE THE WINDS AT THAT BUOY HAVE\r\nNOT INCREASED TO MORE THAN 25 KT. THE ASYMMETRY OF THE WINDFIELD\r\nAND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS MORE INDICATIVE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nRATHER THAN A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO A STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nNOW LOCATED ONLY ABOUT 100 NMI WEST OF THE CENTER. IT IS QUITE\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER BEFORE LESLIE REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND.\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE STATUS OF THE CYCLONE AT LANDFALL TUESDAY\r\nMORNING...IT WILL STILL BE A POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.\r\nONCE LESLIE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...IT WILL REMAIN A VERY STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE COLD WATERS OF\r\nTHE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nLESLIE HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW AHEAD OF A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY\r\nTILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ORIENTED NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST\r\nACROSS MAINE AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...AND THE CENTER OF LESLIE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL\r\nOVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE\r\nTO THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.\r\n \r\nLONG-PERIOD SWELLS FROM LESLIE ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ROUGH\r\nSURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ON BERMUDA AND ALONG MUCH OF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE CANADIAN ATLANTIC PROVINCES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 42.7N  57.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 47.6N  54.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 54.2N  47.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 59.8N  38.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 62.5N  29.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 62.5N  10.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Leslie","Adv":48,"Date":"2012-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nLESLIE IS RAPIDLY TRANSFORMING INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS \r\nTHE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER...AND COLD AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  DATA FROM CANADIAN BUOY 44139\r\nHAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER AND DETERMING THAT\r\nTHE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED.  THE BUOY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 47 KT WITH A GUST\r\nTO 60 KT AROUND 0600 UTC...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971.5 MB ABOUT\r\nAN HOUR LATER.  THE BUOY REPORTS INDICATE THAT LESLIE IS ALSO\r\nLOCATED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE EARLIER POSITION ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT AND IS BASED ON ASCAT DATA\r\nTHAT SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 50 TO 55 KT WINDS. \r\n\r\nLESLIE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 35 KT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nACCELERATE TODAY.  THE CENTER WILL BE PASSING OVER EASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND VERY SOON AND WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING ALONG THE\r\nCOAST.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE\r\nWESTWARD INITIAL POSTION.  \r\n\r\nLESLIE SHOULD COMPLETE ITS TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTHIS MORNING AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. \r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...THEN EASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN JUST OVER 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON RECENT\r\nASCAT AND SURFACE DATA. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 45.7N  56.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 51.0N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 57.5N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 61.5N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 63.5N  25.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 61.5N   9.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Leslie","Adv":49,"Date":"2012-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LESLIE HAS\r\nBECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON\r\nLESLIE.  THE STRONG POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL\r\nPRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS PRIMARILY TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\n\r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30\r\nDEGREES AT 39 KNOTS.  THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A STRONG\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nEAST OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 49.4N  53.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 54.4N  48.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 60.1N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 62.5N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 63.0N  21.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 61.5N   5.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC...WHICH DEVELOPED FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...HAS\r\nGRADUALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND\r\nAN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER AND RELIABLE WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 30 KT SINCE ASCAT HAS A KNOWN LOW BIAS AND\r\nBECAUSE THE RESOLUTION OF THE INSTRUMENT LIKELY CAN NOT RESOLVE THE\r\nSMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES BENEATH A TROUGH AXIS...WHERE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR RELATIVELY LIGHT. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nTROUGH AND THE CYCLONE MOVING IN TANDEM...WHICH KEEPS THE\r\nDEPRESSION IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN FOR A\r\nDAY OR SO. THEREFORE...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT\r\nAND WEAKEN. THIS WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM IS \r\nEXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE\r\nERODES.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 25.6N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 25.8N  42.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 26.4N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 27.3N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 28.0N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 28.5N  44.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 29.5N  44.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1800Z 30.5N  44.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN\r\nORGANIZATION THIS EVENING. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO\r\nBE NEAR OR JUST UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RATHER LINEAR BAND OF\r\nSHALLOW CONVECTION...SUGGESTIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE AT 2.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS HELD AT 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS AND\r\nREMAINS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WHERE THE SHEAR IS\r\nRELATIVELY LOW.  AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS OUT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES IS FORECAST TO\r\nIMPINGE ON THE DEPRESSION.  THIS IS EVIDENCED BY CROSS-SECTION\r\nANALYSES OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS WHICH SHOW A CONSIDERABLE\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT.  THE ABRUPT INCREASE\r\nIN SHEAR SHOULD BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE WEAKENING...\r\nESPECIALLY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM SUCH AS THIS ONE.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CONSERVATIVELY\r\nSHOWING REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/04.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST...AND SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH AND ERODES THE RIDGE FURTHER. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS\r\nAND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT AFTER THAT...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST HWRF MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 25.9N  42.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 26.3N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 27.0N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 27.8N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 28.5N  44.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 29.5N  44.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 31.0N  44.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nSMALL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE DEPRESSION AND NIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER\r\nIS JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST BAND. INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35\r\nKT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB/SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT AN EASY PREDICTION AS\r\nIT IS VERY CLOSE TO SOME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE\r\nBULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THAT THIS SHEAR WILL\r\nSTAY AWAY FROM THE CYCLONE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT\r\nPROBABLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER\r\nWARM WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST BY MANY GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO CUT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IN A FEW\r\nDAYS...WHICH COULD CREATE A FAVORABLE WIND PATTERN FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. WITH THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST LARGE-SCALE\r\nENVIRONMENT...IT DOES NOT SEEM AS LIKELY THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW ANYTIME SOON...AND THE NEW FORECAST NO LONGER\r\nSHOWS THAT TRANSITION. THE LATEST PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IF THE DEPRESSION WERE TO TRACK FARTHER TO THE\r\nLEFT THAN ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...THEN MORE WEAKENING THAN\r\nSHOWN BELOW IS LIKELY...WHICH COULD ALSO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24H OR SO AS IT\r\nMOVES AROUND A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN. STEERING CURRENTS ARE QUITE LIGHT AFTER THAT TIME...WITH THE\r\nMIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IN A FEW DAYS THAT COULD CAUSE A SLOW NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD. THE LATEST NHC FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE\r\nNORTH AND WEST AT LONG RANGE...ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TVCA MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 26.5N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 26.9N  43.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 27.6N  44.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 28.3N  44.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 28.8N  44.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 30.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 31.5N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 33.0N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN AREA\r\nOF CONCENTRATED DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...HOWEVER...EXISTS ONLY ON THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...\r\nSAB AND CIMSS ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nMICHAEL...THE 13TH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 SEASON. ONLY 2005 AND\r\n2011 HAD THE 13TH NAMED STORM FORM EARLIER THAN 4 SEPTEMBER.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS A VERY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.\r\nIN FACT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE SHEAR COULD LEAD TO\r\nWEAKENING. IF MICHAEL SURVIVES A COUPLE OF DAYS...THERE IS AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LOW FORMS SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NOT MUCH CHANGE IN INTENSITY AND ALLOWS\r\nSLIGHT INTENSIFICATION BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST...BUT NOT\r\nAS HIGH AS INDICATED BY THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 4\r\nKNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENTS WEST OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A SHORT WAVE\r\nTROUGH TO BYPASS MICHAEL...LEAVING THE STORM WITHIN A WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP MICHAEL MEANDERING BETWEEN THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD THROUGH FIVE DAYS. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY IN SPEED...MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS MOVE MICHAEL ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD TREND. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 27.0N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 27.7N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 28.5N  44.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 29.0N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 29.5N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 30.5N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 31.5N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 33.0N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE DAY.  ALTHOUGH\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE SOME WARMING OF THE CLOUD\r\nTOPS DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT A CURVED BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 45 KT...BASED ON\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND DATA FROM AN\r\nEARLIER PARTIAL ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A COUPLE OF 35 TO 40 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  ONLY SLIGHT ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE SMALL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCUT OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MICHAEL.  AS THAT OCCURS...A NARROW\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A\r\nREDUCTION OF VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nINCREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO...BUT\r\nA LITTLE LOWER THAN...THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nMICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...BUT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN A DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nMOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THIS TOUGH\r\nBYPASSES MICHAEL...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  AS THE RIDGE SLIDES\r\nEASTWARD IN A FEW DAYS...IT SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON \r\nTHIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 27.5N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 28.1N  43.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 28.8N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 29.4N  43.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 29.9N  42.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 30.9N  43.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 32.0N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 33.5N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT 45 KT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT THAT VALUE. \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER MICHAEL IS PREDICTED TO STAY MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CUTTING OFF AND\r\nMOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS COULD RESULT\r\nIN DECREASING SHEAR AND AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS NEAR A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES IN THE\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW... AND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  THE STORM SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE\r\nAREA IN 48-72 HOURS...HOWEVER...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL THERAFTER.  THESE CHANGES IN THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT\r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nEVENTUALLY MOVE AROUND THE EASTWARD-MOVING ANTICYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS CONFIRM THAT MICHAEL IS A VERY\r\nSMALL TROPICAL STORM. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 27.4N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 28.1N  43.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 28.9N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 29.6N  42.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 30.0N  42.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 31.2N  43.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 32.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 33.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSATE NEAR AND EAST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER LOCATION...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY IS SOMEWHAT\r\nELONGATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nUW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT WEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOF ABOUT 20 KT IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AND THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. DURING THAT TIME...ONLY SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THIS\r\nTREND IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST. THE SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nDECREASE BY 48 HOURS...AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSOME INTENSIFICATION BY THAT TIME. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/04...AS MICHAEL APPEARS TO BE\r\nRESPONDING TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. ONCE THE\r\nTROUGH MOVES BY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A RIDGE\r\nBUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG BUT A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE\r\nNHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 28.1N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 28.6N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 29.4N  43.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 30.0N  42.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 30.7N  42.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 31.8N  43.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 33.0N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 34.0N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1102 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BIT\r\nLESS OF A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TILT WITH HEIGHT...AND IMPROVED\r\nCURVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER...DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS AND A 0800 UTC UW-CIMSS\r\nSATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORTS HOLDING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT...AT LEAST FOR THIS ADVISORY.  MODERATE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  HENCE...STRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS\r\nFORECAST AT THAT TIME.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nPERIOD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...AND IT IS BASED ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS MADE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/05.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE THROUGH THE 36 PERIOD.  AFTERWARD...A RATHER ABRUPT\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nQUICKLY BUILDS IN NORTH OF MICHAEL.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION PERSISTING THROUGH DAY\r\n5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FORECAST...AND SPLITS THE SEAM BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 28.3N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 29.0N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 29.7N  42.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 30.3N  42.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 31.0N  42.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 32.1N  44.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 33.3N  45.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 34.7N  46.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-09-05 17:30:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n130 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MICHAEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH A EYE FEATURE INDICATED IN\r\nMICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A FORMATIVE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. BASED\r\nON THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n55 KT AND MICHAEL IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12\r\nHOURS. THE INCREASED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY IS THE BASIS\r\nFOR THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE 12 AND 24 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS\r\nHAVE BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD.  NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED\r\nFOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1730Z 28.5N  42.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 29.0N  42.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 29.7N  42.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 30.3N  42.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 31.0N  42.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 32.1N  44.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 33.3N  45.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 34.7N  46.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n \r\nA RECENT 1818 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS FROM THE NRL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WEBSITE REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE 85\r\nGHZ COMPOSITE AND MUCH IMPROVED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  THE EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...HOWEVER...HAS BECOME\r\nA LITTLE LESS DISTINCT THAN EARLIER NOTED...AND HAS BEEN REPLACED\r\nBY A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5...55 KT...FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 60 KT BASED ON THE\r\nWELL-DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED SOME\r\nTODAY...BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...BUT THIS COULD BE A TEMPORARY TREND. THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...AS WELL AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS...INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD.\r\nTHEREFORE...FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH DAY 5 AS THE WELL-\r\nDEVELOPED OUTFLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE BEGINS TO\r\nIMPEDE THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OUTFLOW OF MICHAEL. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nIS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/6...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AROUND 36-48 HOURS...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS STILL SHOW MICHAEL RESPONDING TO THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BUILDING IN TO THE NORTH BY TURNING THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST.  THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...MICHAEL\r\nIS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 28.8N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 29.3N  42.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 30.0N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 30.6N  41.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 31.0N  41.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 32.1N  42.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 33.2N  44.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 34.8N  46.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012\r\n\r\nAN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT...\r\nMAKING MICHAEL THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. \r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE\r\nTRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27.5-28.0 DEG C FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  ASSUMING THAT MICHAEL WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID THE\r\nUNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE\r\nLESLIE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...OR 050/6...APPARENTLY DUE\r\nTO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS\r\nNORTH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM\r\nTHE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING MICHAEL BEHIND IN A\r\nREGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 2- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME. \r\nTHERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST\r\nTRACKS...WITH THE GFS TAKING MICHAEL SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTH\r\nAND EAST BY DAY 5 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...ALBEIT JUST A\r\nTAD SLOWER.  THIS IS USUALLY THE BEST STRATEGY WHEN CONFRONTED WITH\r\nA LARGE MODEL SPREAD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 29.3N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 29.8N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 31.0N  41.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 31.5N  42.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 32.7N  43.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 34.0N  44.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-09-06 05:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED WITH A SMALL WELL-DEFINED EYE\r\nBECOMING EVIDENT IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS SET TO 90 KT...IN LINE WITH SPECIAL 0415 UTC DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD...AND IS\r\nCLOSEST TO THE EXPERIMENTAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BASED OFF OF THE\r\nECMWF FIELDS. THE FORECAST IS THEN BLENDED BACK TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nBY DAY 5. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED...AND ONLY\r\nSMALL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII WERE REQUIRED THROUGH 36 H.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0500Z 29.4N  42.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 29.8N  41.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 31.0N  41.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 31.5N  42.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 32.7N  43.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 34.0N  44.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n\r\nMICHAEL HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH\r\nTHE EYE BECOMING WARMER AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION STAYING STRONG. \r\nWHILE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES WERE NEAR 90 KT AT 0600 UTC...OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES FROM ADT AND THE GOES-R HIE PRODUCT HAVE RECENTLY BEEN\r\nBETWEEN 107 AND 110 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVE AN INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED OF 100 KT...MAKING MICHAEL THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE...\r\nCATEGORY THREE OR HIGHER...OF THE SEASON.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY BEFORE\r\nIT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A TROUGH DROPPING TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS...A COMBINATION OF COOLING SSTS\r\nAND INCREASE IN SHEAR FROM THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE COULD WEAKEN\r\nMICHAEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nTHE NEWEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE THAN AVERAGE\r\nIN THE LONG-TERM INTENSITY FORECAST OF THIS CYCLONE DUE TO IT\r\nDEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF BOTH MICHAEL AND LESLIE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE APPEARS ON TRACK...MOVING 045/6.  A TURN TO THE NORTH\r\nAND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nMICHAEL BEGINS TO BE STEERED AROUND A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW.  HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS LARGE DISAGREEMENT WITHIN\r\n48H AS TO WHETHER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT BETWEEN A\r\nMID-LATITUDE RIDGE AND THE LOW...LIKE THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS...\r\nOR IF THE RIDGE MISSES MICHAEL AND THE STORM CONTINUES NORTHWARD...\r\nMORE LIKE THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST\r\nWILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK WAS MADE AT DAY 5 TO COME CLOSER TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nWITH MICHAEL BECOMING THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON EARLIER\r\nTODAY...IT MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE SEVENTH\r\nHURRICANE IN A YEAR...ONLY BEHIND 1886 AND 1893. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 29.6N  41.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 30.3N  41.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 30.9N  41.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 31.4N  41.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 32.0N  42.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 33.1N  43.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 34.5N  44.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 36.0N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING OF THE EYE EVIDENT IN ENHANCED\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ADT VALUE IS THE BASIS\r\nFOR MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KT.  THERE IS A\r\nRELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT\r\nBECOMES LESS FAVORABLE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING WILL BE EITHER DUE TO A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST...OR THE RATHER LARGE OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE\r\nLESLIE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS\r\nAND THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.  OF COURSE...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW BOTH HURRICANES TRACK\r\nWITH TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/6.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH AND THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL LOW. \r\nSUBSEQUENTLY...AN INCREASING SPREAD IN THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS...RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS RESPECTIVELY...STILL EXISTS\r\nBEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE ECMWF SHOWS MORE INFLUENCE FROM A\r\nMID-LATITUDE RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS\r\nINDICATES MORE RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND SIDES WITH THE TVCA CONSENSUS...WHICH BASICALLY IS BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 30.1N  41.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 30.6N  41.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 31.2N  41.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 31.9N  42.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 32.4N  42.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 33.4N  44.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 35.2N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 38.0N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE\r\nSOME WEAKENING OF THE INNER CORE...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE FINAL SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES HAVE DECREASED TO 77 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED JUST A BIT TO 95\r\nKT IN CONSIDERATION OF THE 105 KT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST...PRIMARILY DUE TO EITHER A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...OR THE LARGE\r\nOUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE LESLIE.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 5 DAYS AND IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE BETWEEN THE IVCN CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nUNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/6...WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH AND\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL\r\nAND HURRICANE MODELS HAVE BECOME MUCH MORE ALIGNED WITH A SIMILAR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...ALBEIT WITH\r\nSIGNIFICANT FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE NOW APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING MORE TO A STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT PRODUCED BY A SIGNIFICANT BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE NEAR 45W AND THE AZORES HIGH ANCHORED TO THE EAST.  THE GFS\r\nAND THE GFDL MODELS ARE QUITE A BIT FASTER BEYOND DAY 4 WHILE THE\r\nREMAINING AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AGREE MORE ON A SLOWER 5-7 KT FORWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PAST 6 HOUR TRACK\r\nFORECAST...BUT A LITTLE FASTER AT DAY 5 IN ORDER TO HEDGE CLOSER TO\r\nTHE TVCA CONSENSUS WHICH INCORPORATES THE FASTER GFDL AND GFS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 30.6N  41.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 31.1N  41.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 31.7N  41.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 32.2N  42.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 32.8N  42.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 34.0N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 36.2N  45.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 40.0N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 06 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE COLD TOPS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND\r\nTHE EYE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT MICHAEL POSSESSES A THIN BUT CLOSED EYEWALL.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 90 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.9/5.2.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED A BIT TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.\r\n\r\nMICHAEL HAS FOUND ITSELF STUCK BETWEEN TWO MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...\r\nEACH ROUGHLY EQUIDISTANT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nHURRICANE.  THE COMPETING FLOWS AROUND THE LOWS HAVE CAUSED MICHAEL\r\nTO SLOW DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/4 KT. \r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN WEAK...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO CREEP NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN\r\nAGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD BY DAY 5 AHEAD OF\r\nAN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF HURRICANE LESLIE.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE 21Z FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...AND IS THEN\r\nA LITTLE TO THE WEST AND FASTER BY DAY 5 TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n\r\nACCORDING TO THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS...MICHAEL SHOULD BE IN A\r\nRELATIVELY SHEAR-FREE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS\r\nCOMPLEX...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD\r\nAFFECT MICHAEL SOONER THAN SHOWN BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 4 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\nFASTER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 5 ONCE THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR\r\nBECOMES DECIDEDLY STRONGER...AND MICHAEL COULD BE CLOSE TO BEING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME AS WELL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 30.8N  40.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 31.2N  40.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 31.7N  41.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 32.3N  42.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 33.0N  42.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 34.5N  44.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 36.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 43.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED FOR NOW.\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED\r\nAROUND THE EYE...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO. IN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT\r\nWAS LAST NIGHT. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED AT 90 KT...BUT MICHAEL COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT. THE STEERING FLOW\r\nIS QUITE WEAK AT THE MOMENT WITH A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nMICHAEL AND A PAIR OF CUT OFF LOWS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nFOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A STRENGTHENING\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF MICHAEL AND A TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO ACCELERATE TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nAIDS...TVCA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH OR SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nMICHAEL MOVES OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND REMAINS IN GENERALLY LOW\r\nWIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nBENEATH THE CYCLONE LOWER AND THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...IN PART\r\nDUE TO THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE LESLIE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED UPWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY DUE TO THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE\r\nORGANIZATION OF MICHAEL...BUT IS OTHERWISE UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nMICHAEL COULD BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 31.0N  40.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 31.4N  41.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 31.8N  41.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 32.4N  42.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 33.0N  42.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 34.3N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 45.5N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SMALL CHANGES WITH MICHAEL DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME SOMEWHAT OBSCURED WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS...THE EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE DEEPER.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nBETWEEN 90-100 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY\r\nKEPT AT 90 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MICHAEL\r\nSLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LIGHT OR MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS\r\nTHE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION WHICH IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  A COMBINATION OF COLD WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THIS\r\nGENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nWHILE WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD REBUILD TO THE EAST OF MICHAEL IN A FEW DAYS...CAUSING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nAT LONG RANGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF MICHAEL\r\nWITH LESLIE AS THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES.  FOR NOW...THE NEW FORECAST WILL ASSUME THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL STAY MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM LESLIE AND ENDS UP ONLY A\r\nLITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IF THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS\r\nCORRECT...THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TOO SLOW AND NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS\r\nWOULD HAVE TO BE MADE LATER TODAY.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 31.2N  41.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 31.5N  41.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 32.0N  41.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 32.7N  42.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 33.3N  43.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 34.7N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 39.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 48.5N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MICHAEL HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH PERHAPS THE OVERALL SYSTEM LOOKING A BIT\r\nLESS ORGANIZED THAN SIX HOURS AGO.  ALTHOUGH THE RECENT T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE DECREASED...CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 90-102\r\nKT...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 90 KT.  THE STATISTICAL\r\nAND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING MICHAEL SLOWLY WEAKENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE NEGATIVE PRIMARY FACTORS BEING\r\nSOME WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLING WATERS.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS ON THE LOW\r\nSIDE OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nMICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THIS GENERAL TRACK IS PROBABLE FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME HINT IN THE GUIDANCE THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE COULD MOVE BRIEFLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A SHORTWAVE\r\nRIDGE BUILDS.  THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE\r\nWEST IN THE 48-96 HR TIME RANGE TO COME CLOSER TO THE TVCA\r\nCONSENSUS.  THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE LONG-TERM\r\nFORECAST...WITH MORE OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS KEEPING ENOUGH\r\nSEPARATION FROM LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL CURVES TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OUT TO SEA.  THIS SOLUTION IS FAVORED BY THE LATEST GFS\r\nAND ECMWF RUNS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 31.4N  41.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 31.8N  41.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 32.3N  42.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 33.1N  42.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 33.6N  43.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 35.4N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 42.0N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 52.5N  43.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nDEGRADE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE RING OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER IS OPEN\r\nON THE WEST SIDE.  THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE T4.0/5.0\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND HAVE FALLEN TO T4.4/4.8 FROM THE\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT.  THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 85 KT.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN SQUEEZED A BIT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST BY THE SURROUNDING UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH COULD BE\r\nCONTRIBUTING TO THE SLIGHT WEAKENING.  HOWEVER...THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND MICHAEL\r\nIS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME.  THE\r\nOUTFLOW FROM LESLIE SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ON THE\r\nORDER OF 30-40 KT NEAR THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND MICHAEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SUFFER MARKEDLY GIVEN ITS SMALL SIZE.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS THEN SHOW MICHAEL RUNNING INTO A WARM FRONT BY DAY 4...WHILE\r\nOVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20 DEGREES CELSIUS...SO THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE POST-TROPICAL AT 96 HOURS AND ABSORBED BY\r\nTHE FRONT AT 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/4 KT.  MICHAEL WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS WHILE BEING\r\nTRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A DEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTH.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AND IT IS FORECAST TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL\r\nZONE.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH\r\nOTHER DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE ONLY REAL UPDATE NEEDED\r\nTO THE FORECAST WAS A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE 72-HOUR\r\nPOINT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 31.8N  41.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 32.2N  42.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 32.9N  42.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 33.5N  43.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 33.9N  43.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 36.0N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 44.0N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. A RAGGED EYE HAS\r\nBEEN OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS\r\nLAST NIGHT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85 KT...WHICH IS\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ONLY\r\nA LITTLE WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS\r\nTHE COMPACT HURRICANE REMAINS OVER 27 TO 28C WATERS AND IN A LOW\r\nWIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING MICHAEL IN 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS AND SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MICHAEL MERGING WITH A WARM FRONT TO THE EAST\r\nOF LESLIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT ON\r\nWEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND CALLS FOR MICHAEL TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nBY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH RECENTLY...BUT A LONGER TERM\r\nMOTION IS 330/4. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO AS MICHAEL REMAINS IN WEAK STEERING SURROUNDED BY A\r\nTROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST...A RIDGE TO IS SOUTHEAST...AND A\r\nDEVELOPING RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFT\r\nEASTWARD...AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS...MICHAEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND IN A\r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nNORTHWARD ACCELERATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3 AND 4 TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF RUNS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 32.2N  41.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 32.6N  42.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 33.1N  42.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 33.5N  43.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 33.9N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 36.7N  47.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 45.0N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A\r\nSMALL EYE THAT HAS RECENTLY WARMED AND BECOME MORE DISTINCT.   \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 90 KT...WHICH ALSO MATCHES\r\nTHE ADT ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS...SO THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO\r\nTHAT VALUE.  THE BIGGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR MICHAEL OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS IS PROBABLY ITS SLOW FORWARD MOTION...WHICH IS\r\nUPWELLING SOME COOL WATER AND LIMITING ANY INTENISIFICATION.  THIS\r\nCAN BE SEEN IN A RECENT BUOY NEAR THE CENTER THAT SHOWED AN SST OF\r\nABOUT 78F.  OTHERWISE...AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLING SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WEAKENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW AN\r\nINCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM\r\nLESLIE...ALONG WITH MICHAEL MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  THUS A MORE\r\nRAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE COLD WATER SHOULD\r\nTURN MICHAEL INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST\r\n24H...THEN IS BLENDED BACK WITH THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AND THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nA LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/4.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE A STRONGER RIDGE\r\nTHAN YESTERDAY...AND EVEN SHOWING A WESTWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  LATER ON...THIS HIGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO THE\r\nEAST OF MICHAEL...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO THEN TURN TO THE NORTH AND\r\nACCELERATE BY DAYS 3-4.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND\r\nWESTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. \r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN MICHAEL\r\nAND LESLIE SO THAT MICHAEL IS STEERED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH INTO A\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND ABSORBED IN ABOUT 5 DAYS TIME.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 32.6N  42.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 33.0N  42.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 33.4N  42.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 33.6N  43.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 33.8N  45.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 38.2N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 48.0N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-ORGANIZED HURRICANE WITH A CLEAR\r\nEYE...PERHAPS A LITTLE LARGER THAN BEFORE...AND A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ABOUT THE\r\nSAME SO THE WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 90 KT.  MICHAEL WILL MOST\r\nLIKELY MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH OR SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS WITH\r\nLIGHT SHEAR.  AN INCREASE IN SHEAR IS PROBABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN\r\nTHE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE...ALTHOUGH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN HOW STRONG THE SHEAR WILL BE.  IN\r\nANY EVENT...THE SHEAR ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE A\r\nMORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LGEM MODEL.  I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED\r\nIF MICHAEL MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY BETTER THAN EXPECTED OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BASED ON ITS OVERACHIEVING HISTORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER...335/5.  MICHAEL SHOULD EXECUTE A HARD LEFT TURN BY TOMORROW\r\nAS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  WHILE ALL MODELS\r\nSHOW THIS CHANGE IN TRACK...THERE ARE LARGE SPEED DISAGREEMENTS THAT\r\nMANIFEST THEMSELVES EVEN WITHIN 24H.  THESE DIFFERENCES CAUSE\r\nMICHAEL TO EITHER COME CLOSE TO LESLIE...LIKE THE GFS...OR FOR A\r\nMUCH SLOWER MOTION LIKE THE ECMWF SHOWS AS ONLY A MID-LATITUDE\r\nRIDGE STEERS THE CYCLONE.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS TRENDED A BIT\r\nSLOWER AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IT MUST BE\r\nCONSIDERED AN UNCERTAIN PREDICTION.  DESPITE THE INITIAL\r\nDISAGREEMENTS...ALL MODELS EITHER SHOW MICHAEL AS EXTRATROPICAL BY\r\nDAY 5...OR ABSORPTION WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  I WILL STAY WITH\r\nCONTINUITY AND SHOW DISSIPATION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 33.1N  42.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 33.6N  42.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 33.9N  43.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 34.0N  44.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 34.5N  45.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 41.0N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 50.0N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BUT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS\r\nBEEN DECREASING.  BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FINAL T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE COME DOWN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 85 KT.  THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CI\r\nNUMBER GIVEN BY THE UW-CIMSS ADT.  MICHAEL COULD FLUCTUATE IN\r\nINTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SINCE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THEIR CURRENT STATES.\r\nHOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM LESLIE COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT\r\nMICHAEL BY 48 HOURS...AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING\r\nTO NEARLY 20 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE...FASTER\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THE INCREASINGLY\r\nUNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE MICHAEL TO BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT BY DAY 4...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL UNCLEAR\r\nIF THE CULPRIT WILL BE THE WARM FRONT TO THE EAST OF LESLIE...AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE GFS...OR THE COLD FRONT TRAILING LESLIE...AS SHOWN BY\r\nTHE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS MAINTAINED ITS MOTION OF 335/5 KT...BUT THE HURRICANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A LOW-/MID-\r\nLEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS TO ITS NORTH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nIS INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TO THE WEST THAN IT HAS IN PREVIOUS\r\nDAYS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH AND\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE MAINLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS.  THIS SOLUTION\r\nIS STILL TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS/ECMWF/TVCA CLUSTERING AT THOSE\r\nTIMES.  THE MODELS COME BACK TO BETTER AGREEMENT BY 72 HOURS ONCE\r\nMICHAEL IS ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-\r\nLATITUDE TROUGH...EVEN THOUGH THAT IS A CASE WHERE YOU WOULD\r\nNORMALLY EXPECT TO SEE BIGGER TIMING DIFFERENCES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 33.4N  42.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 33.8N  42.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 33.9N  43.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 34.1N  45.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 35.2N  46.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 42.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF THE SMALL HURRICANE REMAINS DISTINCT AND COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nSURROUND THE CENTER...THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY BREAKS IN\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. RECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL IS A LITTLE WIDER THAN IT\r\nWAS LAST NIGHT. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED...THEREFORE...THE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 85\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL STILL LIES OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN...BUT THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES AND SATELLITE\r\nDERIVED WINDS SHOW STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...IN PART ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE OUTFLOW OF LESLIE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED N MI TO THE WEST\r\nOF MICHAEL. THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE HURRICANE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. IN 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS NORTHERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO\r\nNEAR 30 KT AND MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOL WATERS BY THEN.\r\nTHESE HOSTILE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING\r\nAND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND\r\nTONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD.\r\nMICHAEL IS FORECAST TO THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES\r\nINTO STRONG SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE\r\nTO THE EAST OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nMICHAEL BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE WEST AND LIES FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE TVCA CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 33.8N  42.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 33.9N  43.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 34.0N  44.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 34.6N  46.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 36.5N  47.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 45.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS\r\nMORNING...THERE SEEM TO BE SOME CHANGES OCCURRING WITHIN THE INNER\r\nCORE OF MICHAEL.  THE EYE HAS INCREASED IN DIAMETER FROM 10 TO 25\r\nN MI AT THE SAME TIME CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED...POSSIBLY\r\nINDICATIVE OF A MIXING EVENT WITHIN THE EYE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nBOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES ARE AT 4.5 AT 1200 UTC...AND AN AVERAGE OF\r\nRECENT ADT VALUES IS 5.2.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO 80 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA\r\nAND IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER\r\nCORE.\r\n \r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW 275/04. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE EAST OF\r\nMICHAEL DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. WHILE THIS FEATURE SHOULD HAVE\r\nNO DIRECT EFFECT ON THE CYCLONE...RISING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE\r\nSHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLOW WESTERLY TO WEST- NORTHWESTERLY\r\nCOURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BY 48 HOURS... MICHAEL SHOULD\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS IT REACHES THE FAST-PACED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS AND SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST BY 72 HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST NEAR\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE WATERS ALONG THE TRACK OF MICHAEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE\r\nWARM ENOUGH...THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR IS\r\nABOUT TO CHANGE.  WITHIN 24 HOURS...STRONG NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR\r\nOVER MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE CYCLONE PASSES FROM\r\nSOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS TO A POSITION UNDERNEATH THE OUTFLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH LESLIE.  ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR SHOULD BE CONFINED TO\r\nA NARROW LAYER IN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...IT  COULD BE OF A\r\nMAGNITUDE THAT WOULD INDUCE A FASTER WEAKENING THAN FORECAST.  A\r\nBRIEF REDUCTION IN SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AFTER THIS TIME BEFORE MICHAEL\r\nENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nSTRONG MID-LATITUDE JET.  A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND RAPIDLY\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE TRACK SHOULD MEAN\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES FRONTAL AROUND 72\r\nHOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT AND\r\nTHE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 33.7N  43.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 33.8N  43.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 34.0N  45.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 35.1N  47.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 38.1N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 46.5N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHE MIXING EVENT ACTIVE WITHIN THE INNER CORE OF MICHAEL APPEARS TO\r\nBE NEAR COMPLETION....AND A TRANSFORMATION HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE EYE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED AND CLOUD- FILLED SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH ITS DIAMETER MEASURING 30 N MI AFTER BEING AROUND 10\r\nN MI ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NO LONGER\r\nSYMMETRIC...AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED AT 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE ADT CI\r\nVALUE IS 5.2. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 80 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH A BLEND OF THESE DATA.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING DUE WEST SINCE THIS MORNING...AND HAS\r\nEVEN WOBBLED A BIT SOUTH OF WEST IN RECENT HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE...A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE...IS 270/04.  SOUTH OF A\r\nSMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE...MICHAEL SHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nTO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AROUND THAT TIME\r\nAND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED IN 36-72 HOURS...AS THE SAME SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUSING\r\nLESLIE TO RECURVE APPROACHES MICHAEL.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nAGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT THROUGH 48 HOURS...FOLLOWING\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND TO THE RIGHT AT 72 HOURS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.\r\n\r\nMICHAEL SHOULD LEAVE THE LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND BEGIN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF\r\nLESLIE.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY OVER A NARROW LAYER\r\nIN THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE...AND MICHAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER ONLY\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nBY 48 HOURS HOURS ONCE MICHAEL ENCOUNTERS A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nCROSSING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nREDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 33.6N  43.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 33.6N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 34.2N  46.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 36.4N  47.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 39.9N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 47.2N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHE ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS EVENING INDICATES\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE INNER CORE OF MICHAEL...WITH AN\r\nOPENING OF THE EYE WALL IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. IT APPEARS THAT\r\nTHE MUCH ANTICIPATED INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR IS FINALLY\r\nBEGINNING TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTS LOWERING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR...PRIMARILY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE...SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DOWNSTREAM FROM A\r\nDEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AND COOLER SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY. SUBSEQUENTLY...\r\nMICHAEL IS FORECAST TO LOSE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND\r\nBECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS...THEN TRANSITION TO AN\r\nEXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS. MICHAEL SHOULD ULTIMATELY\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM AROUND DAY 4...OR EARLIER. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/5.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AFTERWARD...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW\r\nMICHAEL TURNING NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE\r\nRIDGE.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE ATLANTIC CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS HEDGED TOWARD THE TVCA CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 33.6N  44.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 33.8N  45.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 34.8N  47.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 37.3N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 40.9N  46.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 48.0N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MICHAEL HAS INCREASED\r\nRECENTLY...THE EYE APPEARS LESS DISTINCT AND IT HAS BEEN\r\nOCCASIONALLY CLOUD FILLED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A\r\nLITTLE TO 70 KT...WHICH IS NEAR THE AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nFINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nABOUT 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING MICHAEL CURRENTLY. THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH\r\nSHOULD PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MICHAEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 26C AND BE\r\nNEARING A COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING AND A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MODELS\r\nARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE POST-TROPICAL LOW\r\nMERGING WITH THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/6. A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY A FASTER\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TONIGHT...AS MICHAEL MOVES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED IN STRONG FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nRIDGE AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE\r\nMICHAEL...OR THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS\r\nSHORTLY AFTER 0000 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 33.5N  45.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 34.0N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 36.0N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 39.1N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 43.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":30,"Date":"2012-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF MICHAEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN\r\nORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  WHILE THE EYE HAS CLEARED\r\nAND BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER DEFINED...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE\r\nNOT COOLED APPRECIABLY.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC...BUT THERE IS STILL EVIDENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE.  SINCE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE UNCHANGED SINCE\r\n0600 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 70 KT. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST AS MICHAEL ENCOUNTERS INCREASING\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...EVEN\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD HASTEN\r\nTHE TRANSITION OF MICHAEL TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A BIT LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT AS\r\nWELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nMICHAEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...THOUGH\r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST A MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING\r\nNOW. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...REPRESENTING A LONGER-TERM\r\nAVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES...IS 270/07.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-18\r\nHOURS AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR\r\n38N 46W.  BEYOND THIS TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED.  THIS\r\nSHOULD OCCUR AS MICHAEL BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE\r\nRIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE\r\nCANADIAN MARITIMES.  WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN RELATIVELY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 33.6N  46.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 34.8N  47.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 37.5N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 41.2N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 45.9N  42.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 54.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":31,"Date":"2012-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF MICHAEL HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND MORE RAGGED DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  NORTHERLY SHEAR MAY BE INCREASING AS EVIDENCED\r\nBY THE APPROACH OF A CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH OUTFLOW OF LESLIE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nASYMMETRIC AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...WITH THE BULK OF\r\nTHE CLOUDINESS AND DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  A\r\nBLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS...AS WELL AS RECENT\r\nADT CI VALUES...SUGGESTS THAT MICHAEL HAS WEAKENED. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN LINE WITH THESE DATA. \r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nARE EXPECTED TO TAKE A TOLL ON MICHAEL DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.  AS A RESULT...CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY PRIOR TO THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMING A FRONTAL WAVE JUST BEFORE 48 HOURS. POST-TROPICAL\r\nMICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS. \r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE BETTER PERFORMING INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING OF MICHAEL HAS BEGUN TO QUICKLY SHIFT TOWARD THE RIGHT\r\nAND THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  BASED\r\nON THE RECENT CENTER FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.\r\nMICHAEL IS ROUNDING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH\r\nCENTERED NEAR 39N 45W...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND\r\nTHEN THE NORTH WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS.  AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nIS EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS MICHAEL BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A FAST-PACED\r\nFLOW IN BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A RAPIDLY ADVANCING\r\nSHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS...VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL TVCA CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 34.4N  47.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 36.2N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 39.8N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 44.2N  44.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 49.6N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/1800Z...ABOSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Michael","Adv":32,"Date":"2012-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF MICHAEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. A\r\nRATHER ASYMMETRIC SHAPE EXISTS...SOUTHEAST-TO-NORTHWEST\r\nORIENTATION...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION LOCATED JUST IN THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE -60C CLOUD TOP CANOPY. SUBJECTIVE AND\r\nOBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE\r\nCYCLONE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 65 KT. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN\r\nINHIBITING COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING AND CAUSE MICHAEL TO LOSE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERWARD...\r\nMICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE LARGE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE\r\nLIFE-SPAN AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE BRIEF...\r\nHOWEVER...AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED BY THE FRONT AT THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE IVCN CONSENSUS\r\nAND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/11. A 2302 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS FROM THE NAVY FNMOC SATELLITE DATA TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWEBPAGE PROVED TO BE BENEFICIAL IN DETERMINING THE 6-HOUR MOTION.\r\nMICHAEL IS MOVING IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED BY A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST...OVER THE NORTHERN CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC. DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nTURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nFROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nRAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTWARD MOVING\r\nTROUGH BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE FRONT. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TOWARD THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 35.3N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 37.7N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 42.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 47.2N  41.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 52.2N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":33,"Date":"2012-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL IS WEAKENING QUICKLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH\r\nINTENSITY AND COVERAGE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND MICROWAVE\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE\r\nFALLEN BY A T-NUMBER...AND MICHAEL IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WITH A WIND SPEED OF 55 KT...WHICH COULD STILL BE GENEROUS.\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY AS THE STORM MOVES OVER\r\nSUB-26C WATERS AND REMAINS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME POST-TROPICAL TONIGHT\r\nOR EARLY WEDNESDAY WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES NEAR 20C AND IN STRONG SHEAR. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE POST-TROPICAL LOW MERGING WITH A COLD\r\nFRONT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GUIDANCE PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS MOVING\r\nFASTER...360/16. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS MICHAEL...OR ITS POST-TROPICAL LOW...BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED\r\nIN STRONG FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS EAST AND A TROUGH TO ITS\r\nWEST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 37.1N  47.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 40.2N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 45.1N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 50.9N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Michael","Adv":34,"Date":"2012-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS VANISHED...AND MICHAEL CONSISTS OF A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT MICHAEL WAS A HURRICANE...AND\r\nWINDS TAKE TIME TO SPIN DOWN...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS. IN FACT...THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECENT\r\nASCAT PASS A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER\r\nCOOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED...AND MICHAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nLATER TODAY. IT SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 020 DEGREES AT 20 KNOTS.  MICHAEL IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE\r\nEAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT\r\nIN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED\r\nBY A FRONT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 39.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 43.0N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 48.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Michael","Adv":35,"Date":"2012-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nMICHAEL CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN DEVOID\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE DAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MICHAEL IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nSTRONG SHEAR...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. MICHAEL IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 27 KNOTS.  MICHAEL IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE\r\nEAST AND A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT\r\nIN AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES ABSORBED\r\nBY A FRONT.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON MICHAEL ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER. \r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 41.4N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 45.0N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL\r\nATLANTIC...AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN\r\nTO T2.5 FROM TAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB...SUPPORTING THE DESIGNATION OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WESTWARD...OR 275/9 KT.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD BE TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS IT\r\nMOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH\r\nCURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AFRICA WESTWARD TO 50W.  THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE BEING ERODED BY A\r\nLARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE\r\nAZORES...AND THE DEPRESSION SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWARD BY\r\nDAY 4 AND NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS WHEN THE ECMWF MODEL BEGINS TO LAG\r\nBEHIND THE OTHER MODELS...BUT THIS IS COMPENSATED FOR IN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS BY THE FASTER GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nFORECAST INDICATES A TRACK LEANING TOWARDS THE SLOWER SCENARIO...\r\nAND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BORDERED BY DRY\r\nSAHARAN AIR TO ITS NORTH AND WEST...BUT THE CYCLONE IS ALSO DRAWING\r\nIN MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH.  SINCE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER IS SCANT...IT MIGHT TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN UNTIL IT CAN MIX OUT SOME OF THE DRY AIR.  SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND STRENGTHENING IS\r\nINDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST UP TO THAT TIME.  STRENGTHENING\r\nCOULD BE ARRESTED IN 4-5 DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR.  THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY\r\nMODELS AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS BEING 20-25 KT DIFFERENT FROM EACH OTHER.  SINCE\r\nTHE LGEM MODEL...WHICH IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO...IS DESIGNED TO\r\nBETTER HANDLE CHANGES IN THE SHEAR AT THE LONGER FORECAST TIMES...\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD BE WEAKER THAN INDICATED IN\r\nTHE FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 16.3N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 17.0N  44.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 18.3N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 19.8N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 21.4N  51.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 25.0N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 28.5N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 30.5N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nSOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF TD\r\nFOURTEEN...AND CLOUDINESS HAS INCREASED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. \r\nHOWEVER...THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH\r\nFROM THIS MORNING...AND DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS REMAIN T2.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND T2.0 FROM SAB.  SINCE THERE IS NOT YET CONSENSUS FROM BOTH\r\nAGENCIES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER MAY BE AN INDICATION\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STRENGTHENING SOON.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nHAVE GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO DUE TO LIGHT \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SYSTEM\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN THAT TIME SPAN.  THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC BY DAY 4.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE WILL BE AFFECTED BY\r\n20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  IN FACT...THE LGEM MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LEAST\r\nAMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING OF ALL THE INTENSITY MODELS AND BARELY\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE TO 50 KT.  THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING ON DAY 5 DUE TO THE\r\nEXPECTED SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED MORE QUICKLY THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nANTICIPATED...AND IT NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 305/10 KT. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING...WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE ONE NOTEWORTHY POINT IS THAT THE\r\nNEW ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO DIVERGE FROM THE OTHER TRACK MODELS...\r\nTHIS TIME SHOWING A STRONGER EASTWARD MOTION AND A SHARPER\r\nRECURVATURE.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST STILL LIES TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 17.5N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 18.5N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 19.9N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 21.4N  50.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 23.2N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 27.0N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 30.0N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 31.5N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 11 2012\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE AND A CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED\r\nIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A\r\nCONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nNADINE...THE FOURTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2012 ATLANTIC SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 KT. NADINE MADE A SLIGHT JOG\r\nTO THE WEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nTRANSIENT MOTION DUE TO REFORMATION OF THE CENTER WITHIN THE LARGER\r\nCYCLONIC ENVELOPE. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE\r\nCENTER...THE VORTEX COLUMN SHOULD BECOME VERTICALLY DEEPER AND MORE\r\nSTABLE...RESULTING IN LESS WOBBLE IN THE TRACK MOTION. OTHERWISE...\r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS ON\r\nNADINE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nALONG ROUGHLY 55W LONGITUDE. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY ON HOW SOON AND HOW MUCH NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE ON DAYS 3-5. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION\r\nAND STRENGTH OF DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK INDICATES ONLY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON DAY 4...AND TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST ON DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS...AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF AND\r\nSLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATED NADINE HAD DEVELOPED A TIGHT\r\nINNER-CORE CIRCULATION. NOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION AND A POSSIBLE CDO\r\nFEATURE HAVE FORMED OVER THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS EXISTS OWING TO THE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND OTHER FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE\r\nA SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOT AS ROBUST AS THE\r\nHWRF MODEL...WHICH MAKES NADINE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 96 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 17.8N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 18.9N  46.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 20.5N  49.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 22.2N  51.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 24.4N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 28.0N  53.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 30.0N  51.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 31.5N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE FORMATION OF A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB.  IN ADDITION...RECENT AUTOMATED\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE NEAR 45 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/15.  NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS BREAK TO BECOME EVEN MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED BY 72 HR AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS NEAR\r\nOR NORTH OF BERMUDA.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER NADINE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH.  THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ALONG\r\n20N...LEAVING NADINE IN WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOMES MORE DIVERGENT\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD.  THE UKMET SHOWS NADINE GOING NORTHWARD AND\r\nBECOMING ENTANGLED WITH THE DEEP-LAYER LOW...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS AN\r\nEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN\r\nTHESE EXTREMES.  THIS PORTION OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED\r\nA LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS AND THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nOVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE\r\nQUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS LAST?  THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL FORECASTS WESTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 15 KT TO DEVELOP WITHIN 24\r\nHR...ALTHOUGH THE SOURCE OF THIS IS NOT READILY APPARENT IN THE GFS\r\nMODEL FIELDS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW NADINE BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE IN 36-48 HR DESPITE THE SHEAR FORECAST...SO THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE.  THERE IS AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO\r\nFOR THIS PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS THE SHEAR\r\nDOES NOT OCCUR AND NADINE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS.  THIS IS SOMEWHAT\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL...\r\nWHICH SHOWS ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...FROM 72-120 HR NADINE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER AT LEAST 20-25\r\nKT OF WESTERLY SHEAR NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION AND START A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 18.6N  46.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 19.7N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 21.4N  50.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 23.3N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 25.4N  53.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 29.0N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 31.0N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 32.5N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE SHOWS A CONTINUED INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION...WITH A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES IN ALL QUADRANTS.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  USING A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. \r\nANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHEAR OVER NADINE WITH\r\nA WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN.  A BROAD TROUGH WELL TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE STORM MAY BE ASSISTING THE OUTFLOW TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST.  NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...FROM\r\n72 HOURS AND BEYOND NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A BELT OF\r\nSTRONG WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THE\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO 25-30 KT DURING\r\nTHIS TIME FRAME.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM AND CONSENSUS MODEL GUIDANCE.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL SHOWING A\r\nSIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nCOULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES SHOW A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST...\r\nAND THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13.  NADINE CONTINUES TO\r\nHEAD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND TAKES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nNADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERLIES BEYOND 72 HOURS...SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nCURRENT NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF...AND ITS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN...AND THE QUICKER 0600 UTC GFS SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1215 UTC ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS...WHICH SAMPLED THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND\r\nREVEALED A LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 19.1N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 20.3N  49.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 22.1N  51.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 24.1N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 26.3N  53.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 30.0N  52.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 32.5N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 34.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROTH/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE ASYMMETRIC...WITH A COMMA-TYPE\r\nCLOUD APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DRY AIR ROTATING AROUND THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE COULD BE ERODING CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS\r\nINCREASED SOMEWHAT IN SIZE AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT\r\nFROM BOTH AGENCIES.  ON THIS BASIS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.  CIRRUS CLOUD MOTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE\r\nA WELL-DEFINED UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS NADINE\r\nMOVES NORTH OF 30N LATITUDE...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT\r\nINCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW NEAR AND OVER NADINE. \r\nTHEREFORE...STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE EARLY PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD AND A WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE LGEM GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nMORE WEAKENING THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF\r\nTHE PERIOD.  WHILE THE 1200 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION SHOWS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...THE MAJORITY OF THE 1200 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT. \r\nUNTIL THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...THIS\r\nTRANSITION WILL NOT BE INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING OF THE STORM HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND THE\r\nMOTION IS NOW ABOUT 310/14.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  NADINE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AFTER MOVING NORTH OF THE RIDGE\r\nAXIS.  THE GLOBAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF..\r\nHAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE 4- AND 5-DAY NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\nTHIS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN A STRONG PERFORMER FOR TRACK PREDICTION THIS\r\nYEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 20.0N  48.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 21.3N  50.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 23.3N  52.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 25.5N  53.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 28.0N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 31.0N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 32.5N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 33.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROTH/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW WRAPS ALMOST COMPLETELY AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER. THE CDO HAS ALSO INCREASED IN SIZE AND TOPS HAVE COOLED\r\nBELOW -80C NEAR THE CENTER...AND IN MOST OF THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS T3.5/55 KT AT 00Z...\r\nBUT THE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE SINCE THEN. THE LATEST\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T3.9/63 KT. HOWEVER...WITH NO\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA THAT WOULD BE USEFUL IN DETERMINING IF NADINE\r\nHAS AN EYE UNDERNEATH THE COLD CLOUD CANOPY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS BEING HELD JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD...OR 305/14 KT. OTHER THAN\r\nMINOR WOBBLES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...NADINE HAS BASICALLY BEEN\r\nON TRACK. FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-WEST ALONG\r\n32-33N LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO COME UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE\r\nOF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED\r\nOFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK HAS REMAINED UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15 THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nLIES WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE MODELS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING\r\nA SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH ITS FAST NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 4/5.\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AT JUST BELOW\r\nTHE RATE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE POSSESSES AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND AS NADINE\r\nMOVES BETWEEN A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST AND A\r\nSMALLER LOW TO ITS WEST. THE COMBINATION OF A FAVORABLE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN AND RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...A SHARP INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING\r\nFROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CAPPING OF THE INTENSITY BY\r\n36 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 48 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL IVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 20.7N  50.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 22.1N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 24.2N  53.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 26.4N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 28.6N  53.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 30.9N  50.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 31.8N  44.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 32.9N  38.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 13 2012\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF NADINE IN INFRARED IMAGERY HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A RECENT AMSU IMAGE SHOWS A\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE DISPLACED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF OF THE APPARENT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THIS MAY BE DUE TO 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR DIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM\r\nCIMSS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND A ASCAT OVERPASS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY SUPPORTS WINDS OF AT LEAST 55-60 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII\r\nHAVE BEEN REVISED A LITTLE BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/14.  NADINE IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND DURING THE NEXT 48 HR THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THIS PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  AFTER 48 HR...THE\r\nGUIDANCE BECOMES SERIOUSLY DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL FORECASTS A\r\nNORTHWARD MOVEMENT TOWARD NEWFOUNDLAND...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nFORECAST A GENERALLY EASTWARD MOTION.  THE OTHER DYNAMICAL AND\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS ARE SPREAD BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.  THIS SPREAD\r\nSEEMS TO RESULT FROM HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN\r\nNADINE...A DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO BE TO ITS EAST...AND A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERLIES NEAR\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH OF THE MODELS\r\nHAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THESE INTERACTIONS.  THEREFORE...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...AND IT LIES NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFS...ECMWF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  ADDITIONAL\r\nADJUSTMENTS OF THIS PART OF THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY WHEN THE\r\nMODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.\r\n\r\nTHE WINDOW FOR NADINE TO STRENGTHEN MAY BE CLOSING.  IN ADDITION TO\r\nTHE CURRENT INCREASE IN SHEAR...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST.  DESPITE THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...MOST OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHR...AND THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR NADINE TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nDURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 24 HR...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER AT LEAST 20-30 KT OF WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  THERE ARE HINTS THAT\r\nTHE SHEAR COULD SUBSIDE AFTER 72 HR...BUT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF\r\nHOW NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OTHER SYSTEMS IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nTHE FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW STRENGTHENING DURING THAT PERIOD.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT LESS INTENSE THAN...THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST USING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 21.5N  51.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 23.1N  52.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 25.4N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 27.6N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 29.3N  53.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 31.5N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 32.5N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 34.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 13 2012\r\n\r\nBASED ON VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...NADINE HAS NOT\r\nBECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  THERE IS\r\nA GOOD CONCENTRATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL AREA NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...BUT NADINE HAS YET TO DISPLAY ANY SIGN OF EYE FORMATION ON\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGES.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT\r\nASYMMETRIC...WITH MORE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN NOTED EMANATING NORTHWARD FROM THE STORM...\r\nSUGGESTING SOME INTRUSION OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.  DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS CYCLE...SO THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 60 KT.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT THAT EASY TO LOCATE...MOST RECENT\r\nSATELLITE FIXES GIVE A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/14.  THE STEERING\r\nSCENARIO AND TRACK FORECAST FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS APPEAR TO BE\r\nRELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  NADINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE...AND THE TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS.  LATER\r\nON...THE TRACK MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT...WITH A SPREAD OF OVER\r\n600 N MI BY DAY 5.  THE GFDL IS THE LEFT-MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nSUITE...AND IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.  THE MOST LIKELY\r\nOUTCOME DURING DAYS 3-5 SEEMS TO BE AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEASTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nCLOSE TO A SELECTIVE CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE GFDL.  THIS IS\r\nALSO ROUGHLY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE LONGER TIME RANGES.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SHEAR AXIS LOCATED\r\nA FEW HUNDRED MILES TO ITS WEST.  ANALYSIS OF THE GFS MODEL FIELDS\r\nREVEALS THE SHEAR IS MOST PROMINENT IN THE MID LEVELS AT THIS TIME. \r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SHEAR WILL BECOME RATHER STRONG BY 36\r\nHOURS AND BEYOND.  ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE...SOME OF THE BETTER-PERFORMING GUIDANCE SUCH AS\r\nSHIPS SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR NADINE TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING PREDICTED AS SHEAR INCREASES BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 22.6N  52.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 24.2N  53.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 26.4N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 28.6N  53.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 30.1N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 31.8N  48.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 32.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 34.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BURKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE APPEARANCE OF A STRONG TROPICAL\r\nSTORM PER SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THIS IS CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM A\r\nRECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASS.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE EXHIBITS A\r\nFAIRLY WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...NO EYE IS APPARENT IN\r\nEITHER VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT VERTICAL SHEAR HAS NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVELY STRONG OVER THE\r\nSTORM.  THE SHEAR HAS...HOWEVER...BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT\r\nNADINE FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT\r\nSHOW AS MUCH SHEAR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IN PREVIOUS\r\nCYCLES.  THIS LIKELY RESULTS FROM THE PREDICTION OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS THAT A TROUGH TO THE WEST OF NADINE WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND\r\nPHASE WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE EXITING EASTERN CANADA.  THIS WOULD\r\nLEAVE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SOUTH OF AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE...IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR. \r\nTHEREFORE...NADINE MAY STILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...AS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THE TIMING AND DURATION OF A POTENTIAL STRENGTHENING EPISODE\r\nIS UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TO BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT...AND IS NOW NEAR\r\n325/14.  THE SYNOPTIC TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nFORECASTS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS A LEFT\r\nOUTLIER...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR LEFT AS IN ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE...EXCEPT TO LOOP\r\nJUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...BEFORE\r\nRETURNING TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FOR DAYS 3-5.  THIS FALLS\r\nBETWEEN THE LATEST TVCN CONSENSUS AND THE GFS/ECMWF TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED A MUCH LARGER TROPICAL CYCLONE THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD AT LEAST 200 N MI.  THIS\r\nIS CONSISTENT WITH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IN WHICH NADINE IS\r\nSEEN TO HAVE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS WELL TO\r\nTHE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 24.0N  53.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 25.7N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 28.0N  54.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 30.1N  53.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 31.3N  52.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 32.0N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 33.0N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 35.0N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BURKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 13 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...AS THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY A\r\nCDO-LIKE PATTERN WITH NO EVIDENCE OF AN EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES. THE SIGNALS FOR THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ARE MIXED. RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT\r\nTHE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SUGGEST THAT\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF 10 TO 15 KT IS AFFECTING NADINE...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY THAT SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nLOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS NADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE\r\nBY 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE CYCLONE MAY BE IN A SLIGHTLY\r\nMORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nWARM SSTS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD THIS CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AT DAYS\r\n3 THROUGH 5. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE BUT IS BELOW THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/13...AS NADINE IS NOW SITUATED ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE\r\nOVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AS NADINE WILL MOVE\r\nAROUND THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN TURN EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THAT\r\nTIME. A LARGE SPREAD PERSISTS IN THE TRACK MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH\r\n5. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE SUITE WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE A FAR LEFT\r\nOUTLIER SHOWING NADINE TURNING NORTHWARD AFTER 3 DAYS. THE NHC\r\nTRACK LATE IN THE PERIOD IS SOUTH OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERNMOST MODEL GROUP. THROUGH\r\nMOST OF THE PERIOD THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 25.0N  53.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 26.8N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 29.1N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 30.7N  52.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 31.4N  50.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 32.3N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 33.5N  38.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 35.5N  32.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS.  THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED IN BOTH\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE HAS ALSO DIMINISHED.  THIS CHANGE MAY BE DUE TO 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nBY CIMSS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55\r\nKT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.\r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n340/13.  THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED...AS\r\nNADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES. THE GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE THROUGH THAT TIME.  A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD PERSISTS IN THE TRACK\r\nMODELS AFTER THAT TIME.  THE NOGAPS IS A FAR LEFT OUTLIER...SHOWING\r\nA NORTHWARD MOTION BY 120 HR.  THE UKMET AND GFDL ARE ON THE\r\nNORTHERN OR LEFT EDGE OF THE MAIN TRACK GUIDANCE CLUSTER...WHILE\r\nTHE THE ECMWF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE REMAIN NEAR THE SOUTHERN OR\r\nRIGHT EDGE OF THE MAIN CLUSTER.  THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE.  THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD\r\nSHIFTED OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HR IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD...WHERE IT\r\nLIES NEAR THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD INCREASE TO 30-40 KT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  WHILE MUCH\r\nOF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTS STRENGTHENING...THIS\r\nLOOKS OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR VALUES.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST KEEPS THE WINDS AT 60 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HR...AND IT WOULD\r\nBE NO SURPRISE IF NADINE WEAKENED INSTEAD.  THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO\r\nSLOWLY DECREASE AFTER 48 HR...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WARM\r\nWATER.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLGEM MODEL AND IS WEAKER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 26.3N  54.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 28.1N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 30.1N  53.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 31.1N  51.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 31.4N  48.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 32.0N  43.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 33.5N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  THE LOW CLOUD LINES ON VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB REMAIN AT 65 AND 55 KT...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 60 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR\r\nNADINE HAS BEEN A BIT CHALLENGING AS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED IN A\r\nMARGINAL ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.  A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF 65-70W LONGITUDE HAS BEEN\r\nPRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER NADINE.  AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nMOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL DIMINISH.  THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN\r\nSHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING MORE OR LESS IN TANDEM WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THESE MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR IS LIKELY IN A FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD\r\nGIVE NADINE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS ALSO IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT A CONSENSUS THAT INCLUDES GUIDANCE FROM THE HURRICANE\r\nFORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM...HFIP...MODELS.  \r\n\r\nNADINE HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE NORTH AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 360/14.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN EASTWARD IN\r\nTHE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE LEFT AS IT INTERACTS\r\nWITH A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE AZORES.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nIS BRACKETED BY THE ECMWF TO THE RIGHT/SOUTH AND THE GFDL TO THE\r\nLEFT/NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN.     \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 28.0N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 29.6N  53.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 31.0N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 31.8N  46.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 32.5N  40.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 34.5N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 36.5N  30.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/HAMRICK/FRACASSO\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n \r\nA 1624 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CORE CONVECTION MAY BE\r\nIMPROVING IN ORGANIZATION...BUT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED\r\nABOUT HALF A DEGREE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR.  DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND THE MOST RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE HAS ACTUALLY FALLEN\r\nTO 55 KT.  THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE SEEMS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING AND DOES NOT LEAD ME TO BELIEVE THAT NADINE HAS\r\nWEAKENED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO CHANGE FROM\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY IN A DAY OR TWO...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF STRONG SHEAR BEING CANCELED OUT\r\nBY THE POSITIVE CONTRIBUTIONS OF A MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR DIRECTION. \r\nAS A RESULT...THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY OVERALL...BUT DOES STILL PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nNADINE BECOMING A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE HWRF\r\nSHOWS NADINE STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT\r\nTHIS SCENARIO APPEARS LESS LIKELY SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING COLDER WATER.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING BY\r\nDAY 5 THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A MOTION OF 015/12 KT. \r\nTHE STORM IS ENTERING THE BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND IT\r\nSHOULD TURN EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTURN IS THEN FORECAST BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS NADINE APPROACHES A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW NEAR THE AZORES.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD BEYOND 24 HOURS...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN MOVED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD AS WELL...SHOWING A MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED DUE-EAST MOTION FOR A TIME.  THE NHC TRACK LIES VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 28.8N  53.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 30.1N  52.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 30.9N  50.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 31.0N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 31.1N  44.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 32.5N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 35.0N  33.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 37.0N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE CORE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SYMMETRICAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB TO 77 KT FROM SAB AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. GIVEN THAT SOME\r\nTILT STILL APPEARS TO EXIST IN THE CIRCULATION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE BASED ON THE MORE CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25 TO 30 KT IS AFFECTING\r\nNADINE...AND THIS MODERATE TO STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT...ONLY\r\nMINIMAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY\r\nSHIPS MODEL THROUGH 72 HOURS AND TRENDS TOWARD THE LGEM BY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/12...AS NADINE IS MOVING AROUND\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nENTER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A QUICK EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL ABOUT DAY 3. A SLOWER\r\nMOTION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WHILE\r\nTHE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS AT THIS TIME.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT\r\nWITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND THE GEFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nNADINE MARKS THE THIRD-EARLIEST FORMATION OF AN EIGHTH HURRICANE FOR\r\nTHE SEASON IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...BEHIND 1893 AND 2005.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 30.0N  52.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 30.8N  51.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 31.2N  48.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 31.1N  45.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 31.2N  42.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 33.0N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 35.5N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 37.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THE HURRICANE IS MAINTAINING CENTRAL CONVECTIVE BANDING...\r\nALTHOUGH A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE\r\n76 AND 73 KT RESPECTIVELY. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE\r\nORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nINTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES ITS RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 050/13.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EASTWARD IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT\r\nCOULD MOVE A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST AS SHOWN BY THE ECMWF.  AFTER\r\nTHREE DAYS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS TO THE WEST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF...UKMET...AND FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE ARE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...\r\nAND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THESE MODELS. THE NEW FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE OLD FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...AND THEN IS SHIFTED\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO AN OVERALL SHIFT IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE 25-35 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...AND IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITSELF SO WELL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. ALL GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS AT LEAST 25-35 KT OF SHEAR TO CONTINUE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET FORECAST A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES TO INTERACT WITH NADINE IN 72-96 HR...\r\nWHICH COULD CHANGE THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE. HOWEVER...THE\r\nRESULTS OF THIS INTERACTION ARE NOT CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN ANY OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 30.7N  51.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 31.1N  49.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 31.1N  46.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 31.0N  43.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 31.4N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 33.0N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 35.5N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 37.5N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NADINE IS STILL A TILTED HURRICANE...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION IS IMPROVING.  A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM\r\nIN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEARLY SURROUNDING THE CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT FROM SAB...SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT UW-CIMSS\r\nADT ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS QUICKLY RECURVING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF\r\n070/13 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS ENTERING THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nCOMPLEX DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR THE AZORES...\r\nAND NADINE SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...A BLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 3 WITH ANOTHER\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ON DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\nTHIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nBECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MANY OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE SHOWING A\r\nFASTER FORWARD SPEED WHILE NADINE IS WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW...AND\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  THE FORECASTS ARE VERY\r\nSIMILAR ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE NEW ONE LYING BETWEEN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCA AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING\r\nTHE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS SUCH THAT\r\nIT SHOULD TEMPER SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THEREFORE...THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS NADINE AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 3 DAYS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  COLDER WATER SHOULD ULTIMATELY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 30.9N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 31.0N  47.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 30.9N  44.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 31.0N  40.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 31.7N  37.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 34.0N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 36.5N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 37.0N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS BEGUN TO LOOK A LITTLE MORE RAGGED THIS AFTERNOON. RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. DESPITE THE MORE\r\nDISHEVELED APPEARANCE...THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 70 KT BASED\r\nON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 77 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND A 70-KT ESTIMATE FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/14 KT.\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING\r\nON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF NADINE...AND THE HURRICANE MAY RESPOND IN\r\nTHE SHORT TERM BY MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST. HOWEVER...A\r\nGENERAL EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE\r\nNADINE MOVES TOWARDS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE\r\nAZORES. THIS COMPLEX LOW IS FORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE AZORES IN A FEW DAYS...WHILE ANOTHER LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THESE FEATURES\r\nWILL CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AND\r\nBECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE AZORES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE FASTER MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS...\r\nECMWF...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING\r\nNADINE COULD LIGHTEN UP A BIT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND\r\nTHE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FLATLINES THE INTENSITY FOR ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3 AS THE SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES AND NADINE MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COLDER\r\nTHAN 26C. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND JUST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING AT THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 30.8N  48.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 30.7N  45.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 30.7N  41.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 31.3N  38.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 32.4N  35.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 35.0N  32.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 37.0N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 38.0N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER BY ABOUT 30 N\r\nMI...LIKELY DUE TO THE 30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY\r\nUW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES AND THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nESTIMATE AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. NADINE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD JUST A LITTLE...BUT STILL KEEPS NADINE AS A HURRICANE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 095/15...AS NADINE HAS MOVED A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF DUE EAST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SHORTWAVE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED ALONG 50W SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH NADINE SOUTH OF DUE\r\nEAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. NADINE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW NEAR THE AZORES. THIS LOW THEN MOVES EASTWARD AND\r\nWEAKENS AS A COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN EVOLVES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC. NADINE SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD BY DAY 4 AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES SITUATED BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST...A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND A SECOND RIDGE BUILDING TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. BY DAY 5 ANOTHER MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF NADINE. THERE HAS BEEN LARGE RUN-TO-RUN\r\nVARIABILITY WITH THE INTERACTION OF NADINE AND THIS LOW. SOME\r\nSOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN NADINE MERGING WITH THE LOW...WHILE THE LATEST\r\nRUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS KEEP THE LOW FARTHER EAST AND TURN NADINE\r\nSOUTHWARD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...\r\nGFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD...WHICH RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK SHOWS A SHARPER NORTHWARD TURN\r\nAT DAY 4 BUT INTRODUCES A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5. THIS\r\nMOTION IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LARGE\r\nUNCERTAINTY AT THESE TIME RANGES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 30.6N  46.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  43.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 30.9N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 31.8N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 33.0N  34.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 35.5N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 37.0N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 36.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE LOOKS A LITTLE RAGGED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...AS\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION LOOKS MORE SHEARED THAN IT DID EARLIER.  AN\r\nAMSU OVERPASS AT 0448 UTC SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM REMAINS TILTED\r\nVERTICALLY...WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED EAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO 25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND AN AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 72 KT. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 095/15.  NADINE IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE FORMATION OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW WEST OF\r\nNADINE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE\r\nINTERACTION OF NADINE WITH AN MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS SHOW\r\nNADINE TRYING TO MERGE WITH THIS LOW.  THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW A\r\nMERGER AND TRAPS NADINE SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE.  THE UKMET SHOWS\r\nTHE LOW MOVING FARTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS...AND AS\r\nA RESULT...FORECASTS NADINE TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER TO THE EAST THAN\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE BY 120 HR...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING A SLOW MOTION.  OVERALL...THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FULL OF ISSUES.  THE FIRST IS THE WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...WHICH LIKELY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HR AND COULD\r\nCAUSE WEAKENING.  THE SECOND IS THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST TWO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WEST OF NADINE TO OVERTAKE THE\r\nHURRICANE BETWEEN 24-72 HR.  THIS COULD DECREASE THE SHEAR...\r\nPROVIDE AN IMPROVED OUTFLOW...AND PERMIT SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nTHIRD IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A MERGER WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n120 HR...WHICH...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF NADINE.  FINALLY...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  DESPITE THIS\r\nCOMPLEXITY...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT NADINE SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHR...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nIT IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 30.5N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 30.5N  42.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 31.3N  38.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 32.3N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 33.5N  34.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 36.0N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 36.5N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 36.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nFIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE INNER-CORE BANDING\r\nFEATURES OF NADINE HAVE IMPROVED...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTWARD TILT TO THE EYE HAS DECREASED.\r\nSINCE A BANDING EYE HAS BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 70 KT.\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE NADINE HAS\r\nACCELERATED EASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/20 KT. NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nNORTH OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BE STEERED QUICKLY\r\nEASTWARD WITHIN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW FOR NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS REMAIN IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW TO THE WEST\r\nOF NADINE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THE CYCLONE OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...NADINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH COULD RESULT IN ERRATIC\r\nMOTION OCCURRING WHEN THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nAZORES. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT MERGING COULD\r\nOCCUR WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED NON-TROPICAL LOW...THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST IS DISCOUNTING THAT SCENARIO AT THIS TIME...AND ONLY\r\nBINARY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD\r\nINITIAL POSITION...AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND\r\nTVCA...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...\r\nSO THE MAIN WEAKENING FACTOR WILL BE COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES\r\nAHEAD OF THE CYCLONE. AFTERWARDS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG NORTHEAST\r\nATLANTIC LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD AND IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE...AND MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nSHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 30.5N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 30.9N  39.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 31.7N  36.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 32.8N  34.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 34.0N  32.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 36.3N  31.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 37.0N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 37.0N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NADINE NO LONGER HAS A\r\nTILTED EYE. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS WANED SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BECOME A\r\nLITTLE MORE FRAGMENTED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO\r\n65 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 080/20 KT. NADINE IS ON TRACK\r\nAND...THEREFORE...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS\r\nAHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF\r\nNADINE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...A SLOW TURN TO THE\r\nEAST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nUNDERGO BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SEPARATE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nTHAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA...AND\r\nTHE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL \r\nTO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS...MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...\r\nINSTABILITY...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASE. THE LATTER UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND\r\nOCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...AND CONTINUE AFTER THAT AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE STRONG NORTHEAST ATLANTIC LOW. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nFOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 30.8N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 31.5N  36.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 32.6N  34.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 33.8N  32.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 34.9N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 36.9N  31.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 37.5N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR AZORES\r\n120H  21/1800Z 37.5N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR AZORES\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS DEGRADED SINCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON WITH LESS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A MORE\r\nASYMMETRIC APPEARANCE.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PRIMARY\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND.  AS A RESULT...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF \r\nTHE LATEST AND T- AND CI-NUMBERS.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.\r\nTHE SHEAR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SOME\r\nWEAKENING...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THE LACK OF WEAKENING COULD BE DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF\r\nNADINE AND A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE\r\nWEST.  THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nONLY PREDICTS A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS. \r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 6-12 HOURS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE\r\nIS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AND HAS TURNED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/16 KT.  AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF NADINE AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BECOME QUITE\r\nDIVERGENT AS THEY DEPICT VARYING INTERACTIONS OF NADINE AND THE\r\nUPPER-LOW.  GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NADINE HAS RECENTLY TAKEN ON A LESS TROPICAL APPEARANCE IN\r\nSATELLITE DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHIS TROUGH WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE NADINE TO TRANSITION\r\nINTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  INSTEAD...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nINDICATE THAT AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE CUT-OFF\r\nLOW IN A FEW DAYS...NADINE WILL THEN TRANSITION INTO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS TRANSFORMATION IS FORECAST TO \r\nBE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 31.4N  38.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 32.1N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 33.2N  33.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 34.4N  32.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 35.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 37.0N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 37.5N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 37.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 17 2012\r\n\r\nAIRMASS IMAGERY FROM EUMETSAT INDICATES THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW INTERACTING WITH NADINE...WITH A TONGUE OF\r\nDRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nTHIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASE IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN\r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE TROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSUBTROPICAL 55-65 KT FROM SAB.  A RECENT OSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED\r\nSEVERAL 55 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...WHILE RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 77-79 KT. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 065/15.  AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF NADINE...AND A CUT-OFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST\r\n48-72 HR...AND THIS PART OF THE NEW FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER THAT TIME...ANOTHER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nTOWARD NADINE...WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS LIKELY TO STRONGLY INTERACT\r\nAFTER 96 HR.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE\r\nDIVERGENT DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THEY DEPICT THIS\r\nINTERACTION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING A SLOW\r\nMOTION...WHICH SMOOTHS THROUGH SOME POSSIBLY VERY ERRATIC MOTION\r\nDURING THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH THE\r\nCURRENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND A SECOND TROUGH APPROACHING FROM\r\nTHE WEST...DURING THE NEXT 48 HR.  THESE INTERACTIONS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nNADINE TO INGEST UPPER-LEVEL COOL/DRY AIR...WHICH COULD START\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT\r\nTHERE IS NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR TO COMPLETE TRANSITION...AND THEY\r\nMAINTAIN NADINE AS A WARM-CORE SYSTEM THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR...\r\nPOSSIBLY WITH SOME HYBRID CHARACTERISTICS.  THE FORECAST OF NADINE\r\nBECOMING EXTRATROPICAL AT 120 HR IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE NORTH ATLANTIC LOW WILL BRING A LARGER BATCH\r\nOF COLD AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE\r\nTRANSITION FORECAST.  REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CYCLONE IS\r\nTROPICAL...EXTRATROPICAL...OR HYBRID...ALL OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS NADINE TO REMAIN A LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 32.0N  36.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 32.8N  34.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 34.0N  33.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 35.2N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 36.3N  32.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 37.0N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 37.0N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 37.0N  27.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AS DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR HAS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM\r\nFROM THE WEST AND SOUTH. RECENT AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 63 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE 12Z TAFB CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE WAS T3.5/55 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE ESTIMATES SUPPORTS\r\nMAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/13 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS NADINE IS INFLUENCED BY\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED TO\r\nITS WEST. AFTER DAY 3...NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH A DEEP MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND\r\nDROP SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE AZORES ON DAY 5. THE EXPECTED BINARY\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS COULD RESULT IN SOME ERRATIC\r\nMOTION...WITH NADINE POSSIBLY EVEN BECOMING STATIONARY AT TIMES IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF THE AZORES. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nMUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO AS COMPARED TO\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS TVCA AND THE HFIP MODEL TV15...AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INTRUSIONS OF DRIER...STABLE AIR IS BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY THE\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW REGIME THAT HAS FORMED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...\r\nAS SUGGESTED BY A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS\r\nDEVELOPED JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...COOLER\r\nSSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND\r\nSHOULD STEADILY TAKE THEIR TOLL...CAUSING NADINE TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN. BY 96 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE\r\nNORTH OF NADINE...COUPLED WITH SSTS COOLER THAN 22C...IS EXPECTED\r\nTO RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TRANSITIONING INTO A SIGNIFICANT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW...OR POSSIBLY EVEN A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND\r\nICON... WHICH ARE ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 32.9N  35.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 33.7N  34.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 34.7N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 35.9N  32.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 36.9N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 37.3N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 36.8N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1200Z 36.5N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nA SIGNIFICANT FLARE UP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN\r\nA SATELLITE INTENSITY CLASSIFICATION OF T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND DEVELOP\r\nCLOSER TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SINCE THAT TIME...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS ONLY BEEN DECREASED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS...\r\nEXCEPT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY RESTRICTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/10 KT. THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON NADINE GRADUALLY TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTH WITH A CONTINUED REDUCTION IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH DAY 3.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON NADINE NOT\r\nMOVING AS FAR NORTH AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED IN THE LATTER FORECAST\r\nPERIODS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE ITS INTERACTION WITH A\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE HIGH LATITUDES\r\nON DAYS 3-5. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK AT 96- AND\r\n120-HOURS HAS BEEN SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHWEST AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nNHC ADVISORY TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GFS...\r\nECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS\r\nTHE EXACT TIMING AND AMOUNT OF INTERACTION EXPECTED TO OCCUR\r\nBETWEEN NADINE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW. \r\n\r\nNADINE MAY BE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE INTRUSIONS OF DRIER AND STABLE\r\nAIR...AND COOLER SSTS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO DUE TO ITS LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION. BY DAY 3... HOWEVER...SSTS LESS THAN 24C ALONG WITH\r\nINCREASING SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO\r\nGRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BY DAY 5\r\nAS NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER SSTS...THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nTRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE EXACT\r\nSTATUS OF NADINE AFTER DAY 3...HOWEVER...IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE\r\nIF ANY EFFECT ON ITS INTENSITY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 33.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 34.3N  33.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 35.4N  32.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 36.5N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 37.1N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 37.0N  30.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 35.5N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1800Z 33.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nAN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT FORMED NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED THIS EVENING.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF\r\nCOLDER CLOUD TOPS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  ONCE\r\nAGAIN THIS EVENING NADINE WAS NOT SAMPLED BY THE ASCAT INSTRUMENT\r\nSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.\r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED...AND IT IS NOW MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR 045 DEGREES AT 8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A\r\nDEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO THE WEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nPREDICTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY FOR A DAY OR SO TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE NHC TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS IS NEAR\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF\r\nSHOWING LESS DIRECT INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE TROUGH LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NADINE IN \r\n3 TO 4 DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD....THEN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEVELOPING\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE\r\nSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE AND LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nGFS...WHICH HAS PERFORMED QUITE WELL WITH NADINE SO FAR.\r\n\r\nNADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER A LITTLE COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE STORM ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME STRENGTH AS THE CYCLONE DERIVES SOME ENERGY FROM MID-\r\nLATITUDE SOURCES.  WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A PUSH OF COOLER AND DRIER\r\nAIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO\r\nTRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN NADINE MOVES SOUTHWARD...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND NADINE\r\nCOULD BEGIN THE TRANSITION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 33.9N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 34.6N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 35.9N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 36.9N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 37.2N  32.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 36.7N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 35.0N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/0000Z 32.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE HAS\r\nDIMINISHED...AND THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS LOCATED WITHIN A BAND TO\r\nTHE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THIS COULD SUGGEST THAT\r\nNADINE IS BEGINNING TO LOSE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM SAB\r\nAND T3.5 FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nJUST ABOUT EVERY ASPECT OF THE FORECAST IS COMPLICATED.  THERE IS\r\nRELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 2\r\nDAYS...WITH ALL OF THE MODELS SHOWING A SLOW NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AS NADINE MOVES ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS INCREASES\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY BEYOND 3 DAYS.  THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nNADINE INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW TO ITS NORTH AND\r\nEITHER MOVING EASTWARD AS ITS OWN ENTITY...OR IN THE CASE OF THE\r\n00Z GFS...MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE CUT-OFF LOW. \r\nON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE CUT-OFF LOW BYPASSING\r\nNADINE AND BEING REPLACED BY AN ANTICYCLONE...WHICH PUSHES NADINE\r\nBACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST.  DUE TO THE IMMENSE UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE MOTION AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  AT THIS POINT...THE STEERING PATTERN IS TOO\r\nCOMPLEX TO KNOW EXACTLY WHICH SCENARIO WILL VERIFY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH NADINE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...BAROCLINIC PROCESSES ARE LIKELY TO OFFSET ANY\r\nWEAKENING THAT THE COLDER WATERS WOULD INDUCE.  THE GUIDANCE AS A\r\nWHOLE AGREES THAT NADINE SHOULD CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nONLY SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NADINE BECOMING FULLY INVOLVED\r\nWITH A FRONT...MAKING IT EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE OTHER\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...SHOW NADINE STAYING AWAY FROM THE\r\nSTRONGEST TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND MOVING BACK TO THE SOUTH AS A\r\nNON-FRONTAL CYCLONE.  EVEN IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFIES...NADINE\r\nIS STILL LIKELY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL DUE TO A LACK OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER COLD WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NADINE\r\nBECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 3 DAYS...WITHOUT SPECIFYING WHETHER OR\r\nNOT THE CYCLONE WILL BE FRONTAL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 34.3N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 35.1N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 36.2N  32.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 36.9N  32.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 36.8N  31.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 35.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 35.0N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  23/0600Z 35.0N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING SOME...NOT MUCH...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 50 KT\r\nBASED ON A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF SHEAR OVER NADINE DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS...THESE HIGHER-LATITUDE SYSTEMS ARE KNOWN TO BE MORE\r\nRESILIENT TO SHEAR. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH MORE OR LESS MAINTAINS THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS INDICATED BELOW...NADINE IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE MUCH FARTHER NORTH OVER THE PERIOD. THEREFORE IT IS NOT LIKELY\r\nTO ENCOUNTER ENOUGH BAROCLINICITY TO UNDERGO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSFORMATION. HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATERS IT COULD...AT SOME POINT...LOSE ENOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION SO THAT IT NO LONGER WOULD QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH SHOWS\r\nPOST-TROPICAL STATUS BY DAY 3. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHE SPECIFIC TIMING OF SUCH A TRANSITION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS COMPLICATED AS A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS\r\nBLOCKING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS\r\nOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...HOWEVER...HAVE\r\nCOME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE GFS 3-5 DAY PREDICTIONS NOW SHOW NADINE...OR ITS\r\nPOST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...BEING DRIVEN SOUTHWARD BY THE FLOW\r\nBETWEEN AN INTENSE 500 MB TROUGH TO THE WEST OF EUROPE AND A VERY\r\nSTRONG ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NORTH OF 40N OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\nBY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GFS SHOWS THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE. THE\r\nECMWF SHOWS A SIMILAR BEHAVIOR...BUT TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER WEST\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHIFTS THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD\r\nAT DAYS 3-5 BUT DOES NOT YET COMMIT TO THE WESTWARD TURN. THIS IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE\r\nLATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 34.4N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 35.4N  32.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 36.4N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 36.7N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 36.5N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 35.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 34.0N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  23/1200Z 33.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":30,"Date":"2012-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nHAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT...AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM\r\nSUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.  SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH SINCE THAT OVERPASS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN AT 50 KT.  BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...NADINE SHOULD NOT\r\nMOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS...AND THESE HIGHER-LATITUDE CYCLONES\r\nTEND TO BE MORE RESILIENT TO VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.  THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IF IT LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THIS\r\nTRANSITION OCCURRING BY DAY 4.  HOWEVER THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY\r\nAS TO THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THIS EVENT AND NADINE COULD LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS MUCH SOONER...OR MUCH LATER.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THE\r\nMOTION IS NEAR 030/7.  FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE A GREAT CHALLENGE.  A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS BLOCKING\r\nPATTERN IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP AROUND NADINE\r\nIN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING TO A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND AN\r\nINTENSE TROUGH/CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THIS HIGH.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN FLIP-FLOPPING ON WHETHER NADINE...OR ITS\r\nPOST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART...WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE HIGH OR BE DRAWN EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH IN 3-5\r\nDAYS.  THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE FAVORING THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE NEW ECMWF FORECAST SHOWS THE INTENSE\r\nTROUGH/CYCLONE ABSORBING NADINE WITHIN 3-4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nBUT...IN AN ATTEMPT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY...IS NOT NEARLY AS FAR\r\nEAST AS THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 35.2N  32.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 36.2N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 36.9N  32.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 36.8N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 36.1N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 34.8N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 34.0N  27.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  23/1800Z 33.5N  25.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":31,"Date":"2012-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NADINE HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING\r\nAND THE CYCLONE NOW HAS ONE RAGGED BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nDECREASED AND A BLEND OF THE FINAL T- AND CI-NUMBERS YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT. NADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND\r\n25 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IT SHOULD MOVE OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PREDICTED SLOW MOTION OF NADINE\r\nCOULD ALSO CAUSE SOME UPWELLING...WHICH IS LIKELY TO REDUCE THE\r\nSSTS A LITTLE MORE. ONE WOULD EXPECT THE COOL WATER AND MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO CAUSE NADINE TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...MUCH OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE GLOBAL MODELS ACTUALLY PREDICT SOME\r\nINCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE AS A\r\nLARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NADINE COULD\r\nBECOME POST-TROPICAL IF IT LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION DURING\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE\r\nTIMING OF WHEN THIS COULD OCCUR.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGE AS DIFFERENCES EXIST IN THE\r\nMODELS AS TO HOW THE STORM WILL INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH THAT AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. NADINE IS FORECAST SLOW DOWN AND MEANDER SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nAZORES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE DIFFERS ON WHETHER THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nTHEN EASTWARD AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...OR TURN SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED THE LATTER SCENARIO...BUT MOST OF THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER EASTWARD SOLUTION. THE\r\nNEW NHC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE EASTWARD SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT NOT AS FAST AS MUCH OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND THE TVCA CONSENSUS. THIS MAINTAINS SOME CONTINUITY\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND SHOWS SOME RESPECT FOR THE ECMWF\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 35.8N  32.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 36.5N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 36.9N  31.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 36.4N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 35.3N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 34.4N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 34.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  24/0000Z 34.0N  24.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":32,"Date":"2012-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TYPICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE.\r\nTHE CENTER IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND MOST OF THE\r\nASSOCIATED WEATHER IS WITHIN A CURVED BAND WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45\r\nKNOTS.  \r\n\r\nIF THE DIAGNOSIS OF NADINE IS DIFFICULT...THE FORECAST IS EVEN MORE\r\nSO AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN A STRONGLY\r\nSHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOL WATERS.  THIS NORMALLY WOULD LEAD\r\nTO WEAKENING. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nKEEP NADINE AS A STRONG CYCLONE...AND EVEN STRENGTHEN IT A LITTLE\r\nBIT. I AM ASSUMING THAT THIS IS DUE TO THE FORECAST INTERACTION\r\nWITH A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE...WHICH IN FACT...THE GFS ASSUMES\r\nWILL BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM. ON THE CONTRARY...THE ECMWF MAKES\r\nNADINE THE PREVAILING ONE. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL\r\nBE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM...POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW DRIFTING EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AZORES FOR\r\nA FEW DAYS. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SOME CONTINUITY\r\nAND ASSUMES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LOSE ALL ITS ASSOCIATED\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IN 48 HOURS OR SO.  \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT IS GRADUALLY\r\nTRENDING TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD-MOVING\r\nOR MEANDERING CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH OR EAST OF THE AZORES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 36.4N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 37.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 36.6N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 35.5N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 34.5N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 34.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 34.0N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  24/0600Z 34.0N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":33,"Date":"2012-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 19 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECLINING AND IS BECOMING FARTHER\r\nREMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  AMSU DATA SHOWED A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWARM CORE STRUCTURE...BUT THE LACK OF CENTRAL CONVECTION IS\r\nINDICATIVE OF A DECAYING TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 KT BUT SINCE THIS IS SUCH A MARGINAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...THESE ESTIMATES MAY BE PROBLEMATIC.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS\r\nSHOWED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD WINDS TO 45 KT.  HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nCURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...NADINE WILL SOON NO LONGER\r\nQUALIFY AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 24 HOURS BUT\r\nTHIS TRANSITION COULD OCCUR EVEN EARLIER THAN THAT.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS THE 45-KT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS\r\nSINCE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY FIND SOME SOURCES OF\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION IS BECOMING ERRATIC AND THE CURRENT ESTIMATE IS 020/04.\r\nMOST OF THE BETTER-PERFORMING DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD SOON TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AS IT\r\nBECOMES CAUGHT IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE MODELS BECOME MORE DIVERGENT WITH THE U.K.\r\nMET. OFFICE MODEL TAKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD...THE\r\nECMWF SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED...AND THE GFS MOVING\r\nTHE SYSTEM QUICKLY TOWARD PORTUGAL.  AS A COMPROMISE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MOVES THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM DAYS 3 TO 5.  THIS\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 37.2N  31.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 37.4N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 36.6N  30.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 35.5N  28.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 34.5N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 34.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 34.5N  22.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  24/1200Z 34.5N  21.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":34,"Date":"2012-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE EARLIER TODAY...AS IT CONTINUES TO\r\nMAINTAIN MINIMAL DEEP CONVECTION...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE CONTINUES TO UNDERESTIMATE THE\r\nINTENSITY OF THIS MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS THE LATEST CI\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM\r\nTHIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NEAR 45 KT...AND\r\nSINCE THE CONVECTION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THAT\r\nTIME...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT THE LATTER VALUE.  AMSU\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE MIGHT EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER. \r\nSINCE NADINE HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH SO LITTLE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AND SUBSTANTIAL SHEAR...IT IS PROBABLY DERIVING\r\nSOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nASSUMES THAT THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IT IS PRESUMED\r\nTHAT WITHIN A DAY OR SO NADINE WILL LOSE MOST OF ITS DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THEREFORE BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GLOBAL\r\nMODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT\r\nAROUND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ABOUT FOR MOST OF THE DAY...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  FORECASTING THE TRACK OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING.  A PROMINENT\r\nBLOCKING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS\r\nOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A COMPLICATED STEERING\r\nPATTERN.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS HAVE HARDLY BEEN A MODEL OF\r\nCONSISTENCY FOR NADINE.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE 5-DAY FORECAST POSITION\r\nFROM THE 1200 UTC RUN OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A MERE 900 N MI TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE 0600 UTC RUN.  THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE IN THE 3-\r\nTO 5-DAY RANGE IS APPARENTLY VERY SENSITIVE TO HOW NADINE INTERACTS\r\nWITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND A MASSIVE\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  IN ONE SCENARIO...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS PULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH... AND IN ANOTHER IT MOVES\r\nSOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE\r\nANTICYCLONE.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHICH SCENARIO SHOULD BE FAVORED AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSLOWS THE MOTION TO A CRAWL IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  THIS IS A LITTLE SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NORTH OF THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.      \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 37.1N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 36.7N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 35.9N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 34.6N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 33.5N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 33.5N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 33.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  24/1800Z 33.5N  22.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":35,"Date":"2012-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 19 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO BE A RESILIENT TROPICAL CYCLONE...AS AN AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 45\r\nKT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT THE VALUE.  ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE VERY MUCH DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...WITH NADINE STAYING OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE\r\nSUGGESTED BY GLOBAL MODELS.  WITH THE RECENT INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION...IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER NADINE WILL LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AS QUICKLY AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nTHE TRANSFORMATION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS SOMETHING THAT IS\r\nDIFFICULT TO PREDICT...AND THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AS TO WHEN THIS\r\nWILL OCCUR.\r\n \r\nAFTER MEANDERING DURING MOST OF TODAY...SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST\r\nTHAT NADINE IS STARTING TO TURN EASTWARD.  HOWEVER...USING A LONGER\r\n12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOVEMENT OF EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT\r\nABOUT 3 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN\r\nTAKING NADINE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IN\r\nSTRENGTHENING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A DEEPING TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS.  ONE SOLUTION...IS FOR NADINE TO BE\r\nPULLED EASTWARD BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE SECOND SCENARIO IS FOR\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL-ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO\r\nREMAIN BETWEEN THESE PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS...BUT THE NEW TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS\r\nIS THE RESULT OF A FASTER SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION PREDICTED BY THE\r\nGUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  AT DAY 3 AND BEYOND...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL MOTION FOR NOW.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 37.1N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 36.6N  30.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 35.5N  28.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 34.2N  27.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 32.8N  26.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 32.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 31.5N  25.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  25/0000Z 31.0N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":36,"Date":"2012-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012\r\n \r\nIT IS HARD TO SAY MUCH MORE ABOUT NADINE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nCONTINUES AT 45 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH...PRELIMINARY DROPSONDE DATA FROM\r\nTHE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT WINDS COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS\r\nTHE INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHIS SUGGESTS THAT NADINE IS NOT BECOMING POST-TROPICAL AT THIS\r\nTIME...AND IN FACT...IT LOOKS MORE TROPICAL NOW THAN 24 HOURS AGO.\r\nHAVING SAID THAT...NADINE IS STILL FORECAST TO TRANSFORM INTO A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GIVING THAT IS MOVING OVER COOL WATERS.\r\nTHE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS VERY LOW.\r\n \r\nAS ANTICIPATED BY GLOBAL MODELS...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORCING NADINE TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. AS THE TROUGH SWINGS\r\nEASTWARD...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWING THE TROUGH WILL STEER\r\nNADINE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. BY THEN...THE\r\nTROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A STRONG RIDGE...AND NADINE WILL LIKELY\r\nBECOME TRAPPED SOUTH OF A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE. IN THE LONG\r\nRANGE...BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS KEEP CHANGING THEIR\r\nTUNES...AND WHEN THE GFS SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN...THE ECMWF SHOWS AN\r\nEASTWARD MOTION...AND VICEVERSA. SINCE THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN\r\nTONIGHT...THE NHC FORECAST PREFERS TO KEEP NADINE NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 36.8N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 36.2N  29.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 35.0N  27.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 33.5N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 32.5N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 32.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 32.0N  25.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  25/0600Z 32.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":37,"Date":"2012-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 20 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO HAVE A TROPICAL-TYPE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  IN FACT...THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED\r\nSOMEWHAT AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE\r\nBECOMING APPARENT ON ENHANCED IR IMAGES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 45 KT WHICH IS ABOVE THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE\r\nNASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT AND AMSU ESTIMATES.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL DEFINED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS ARE\r\nEVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE GFS\r\nSHOWS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THIS REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE DRAWING SOME ENERGY FROM\r\nBAROCLINIC SOURCES AS WELL AS FROM LATENT HEAT...AND SHOULD BE ABLE\r\nTO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nEITHER AS A TROPICAL OR A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS BEEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 120/9...IN THE FLOW\r\nON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND LEAVE NADINE IN A REGION OF WEAKER\r\nSTEERING WINDS.  THE LONGER-RANGE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS\r\nUNCLEAR...AS THE NORMALLY-RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY\r\nINCONSISTENT.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME NOW...THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IN THE 3-5 DAY TIME\r\nFRAME.  THE LATEST GFS RUN LIES WELL WEST OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND\r\nECMWF MODEL POSITIONS AT 4 AND 5 DAYS.  IN THESE SITUATIONS IT IS\r\nUSUALLY BEST TO MOVE THE SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS NO MOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 36.2N  29.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 35.4N  27.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 34.1N  26.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 32.9N  25.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 32.3N  25.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 32.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 32.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  25/1200Z 32.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":38,"Date":"2012-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF NADINE OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. AFTER INCREASING A LITTLE EARLIER...CONVECTIVE TOPS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER HAVE WARMED AND DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS NADINE WILL BE IN A\r\nMARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION VIA LATENT\r\nHEAT RELEASE WHILE LACKING ANY SIGNIFICANT SOURCE OF BAROCLINIC\r\nINTENSIFICATION. ADDITIONALLY...NADINE COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL AT \r\nJUST ABOUT ANYTIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD IF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDISSIPATES. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nNADINE HAS JOGGED EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LONG TERM\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 110/09. OTHER THAN AN EASTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. DURING THIS\r\nTIME NADINE SHOULD BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE LATEST GFS NOW SHOWS A QUICKER EASTWARD\r\nMOTION...AS NADINE ACCELERATES AHEAD OF ANOTHER DIGGING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. WHILE THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS AN EASTWARD\r\nMOTION BY DAY 5...THIS MODEL HAS TRENDED ABOUT 500 MILES WESTWARD\r\nCOMPARED TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...THE HWRF SHOWS A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD\r\nWHILE THE UKMET SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. THE LATEST ECMWF AND\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REMAIN ALMOST EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN AN \r\nEASTWARD AND WESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION BY DAY 5. GIVEN THE\r\nPERSISTENT UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW NO\r\nMOTION BEYOND 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 36.1N  28.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 35.3N  27.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 34.0N  26.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 32.9N  25.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 32.5N  24.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 32.5N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 32.5N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  25/1800Z 32.5N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":39,"Date":"2012-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 20 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASING NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF NADINE DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION...HOWEVER...IS LIKELY\r\nRELATED TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES SINCE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nTHE AZORES AND AN 2224 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE A FRONTAL ZONE\r\nIMPINGING ON THE CORE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT DATA WHICH SHOWED SEVERAL 50 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND\r\nBARBS NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE PRESUMABLY\r\nRELATED TO AN INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE NORTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK OF NADINE MAY BE\r\nVEERING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT A LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 120/08.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL BE STEERED SOUTHEASTWARD AND SLOW DOWN\r\nTHROUGH 36-48 HOURS.  AFTER THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS A LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  AS IN THE LAST FEW RUNS...THE GFS\r\nSHOWS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING\r\nNORTH OF THE STORM WHICH RESULTS IN NADINE MOVING MORE RAPIDLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF/UK MET HAVE A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WITH LESS AMPLITUDE AND EITHER\r\nKEEP NADINE MEANDERING OR MOVING MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nTHAN THE GFS. SINCE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A STARK DICHOTOMY IN THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ONLY A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST\r\nIS DEPICTED DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE ATTEMPTING TO OUTRUN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE\r\nENCROACHING ON IT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BUT THIS MAY BE\r\nOPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE CURRENT SEPARATION BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES.\r\nTHE TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW COULD NOW BE MORE\r\nIMMINENT...AND POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SOONER\r\nTHAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEN AGAIN...NADINE COULD TEMPORARILY\r\nFIND ITSELF SECLUDED FROM THE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT...OVER\r\nRELATIVELY WARMER WATERS...AND IN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nDUE TO A STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF NADINE...THE LATTER POSSIBILITY IS TREATED AS A LOWER\r\nPROBABILITY ALTERNATE SCENARIO.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 35.4N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 34.5N  27.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 33.2N  26.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 32.5N  25.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 32.4N  24.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 32.4N  24.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 32.4N  23.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  26/0000Z 32.4N  23.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":40,"Date":"2012-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE...AND ITS\r\nFUTURE IS AS UNCERTAIN AS IT WAS LAST NIGHT. THE CENTER IS DEVOID\r\nOF THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE ONLY CONVECTION IS WITHIN A BAND IN THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SINCE I DO NOT HAVE ANY NEW DATA...AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE VIGOROUS ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. NADINE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH AN APROACHING COLD FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nOVER COOL WATERS. \r\n \r\nNADINE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7\r\nKNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH. THIS SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AZORES\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. NADINE WILL LIKELY\r\nBECOME TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW AND BEGINS TO MEANDER AGAIN.\r\nTHE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY IS TO FORECAST IF NADINE WILL BE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...SUBTROPICAL...OR WILL ACQUIRE AGAIN MORE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES THAT NADINE\r\nWILL BE A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT ANY SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 35.1N  27.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 34.0N  26.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 33.0N  25.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 32.5N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 32.5N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 32.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 32.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  26/0600Z 32.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":41,"Date":"2012-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 21 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE REMAINS A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE. MODEL ANALYSES AND PHASE\r\nSPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS WARM CORE...WHILE\r\nSURFACE DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nNADINE IS SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AZORES.\r\nHOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH ONLY A RAGGED BAND OF WARMING CLOUD\r\nTOPS REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DECREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION IS LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MARGINAL SSTS AND DRY\r\nAIR THAT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE INNER PART OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nA 1224 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED SOME 40 TO 45 KT WINDS NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO\r\n50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. TRANSITION TO POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS\r\nEXPECTED SOON...POSSIBLY BY LATER TODAY IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDOES NOT RETURN. AFTER TRANSITION...ONLY SLIGHT WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nNADINE MOVED A LITTLE WEST OF DUE SOUTH EARLIER THIS MORNING...\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\nHOWEVER...NADINE HAS TURNED SOUTHWARD RECENTLY...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 180/09. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO\r\nTHE EAST...NADINE SHOULD TURN SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS. AFTERWARD NADINE WILL AGAIN BE CAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW EASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. THIS FOLLOWS THE GENERAL\r\nTREND SEEN IN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT AT A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\nTHIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM LARGE RUN-TO-RUN AND MODEL-TO-MODEL\r\nVARIABILITY IN THE DETAILS ABOUT HOW MUCH NADINE WILL INTERACT WITH\r\nANOTHER TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD. DUE TO THE RECENT SOUTHWARD JOG OF NADINE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED ABOUT 60 TO 70 NAUTICAL MILES TO THE WEST\r\nAND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED\r\nON THE ABOVE-MENTIONED ASCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 34.1N  27.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 32.9N  26.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 31.8N  25.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 31.4N  25.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 31.4N  24.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 31.6N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 32.0N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  26/1200Z 32.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":42,"Date":"2012-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS UNDERGONE AN INTERESTING TRANSFORMATION DURING THE PAST\r\nDAY OR SO.  WHILE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED OVERALL...A BAND OF\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nSTORM.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS ALSO DEVELOPED CLOSE TO THE CENTER\r\nOF NADINE...A RESULT OF ALL OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH INTERACTIONS\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS HAD RECENTLY.  THE STORM HAS A LARGER-THAN-\r\nAVERAGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND AN ASYMMETRIC WIND\r\nDISTRIBUTION.  ALTHOUGH IT IS TEMPTING TO DECLARE NADINE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL WITH THE DECAYING CONVECTION...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO\r\nFIT MOST OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT\r\nFROM AN UNUSUAL WAY OF GETTING THERE.  THE BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS\r\nTIME IS THAT NADINE HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A\r\nSUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nREMAINS 50 KT.  \r\n\r\nNADINE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KT.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST AS IT IS STEERED BY\r\nA TROUGH OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  AFTER THE\r\nTROUGH MOVES AWAY...HOWEVER...VERY LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED IN A\r\nCOUPLE DAYS TIME AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. \r\nTHE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NEXT TROUGH IN ABOUT 5\r\nDAYS WILL FINALLY CAUSE THE STORM TO MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND LOSE ANY REMAINING TROPICAL CHARACTERSTICS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GEFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLES.  THIS RESULTS IN A MORE SOUTHWARD\r\nTRACK EARLY ON...SMALL CHANGES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST...AND\r\nAN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT DAY 5.  \r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CHALLENGING AND IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. \r\nVERY COLD UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTING THE\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL SSTS...\r\nALTHOUGH THE WATERS SHOULD BE WARMING WITH TIME.  MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OR A SLIGHTLY WEAKER\r\nSYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS BUILD AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR NADINE...WHICH COULD\r\nFACILITATE A TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WHILE THE SYSTEM\r\nIS OVER MARGINAL SSTS.  IT WOULD ALSO NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT\r\nDECAYED INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 33.0N  27.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 31.6N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 30.6N  25.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 30.5N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 30.8N  24.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 31.7N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 32.5N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 32.5N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Nadine","Adv":43,"Date":"2012-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 21 2012\r\n\r\nWHILE NADINE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A WARM CORE AND A VIGOROUS\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FOR THE PAST 15 HOURS OR SO.  WHAT\r\nCONVECTION THAT CURRENTLY REMAINS IS IN POORLY-DEFINED BANDS TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE SYSTEM DOES NOT\r\nREALLY FIT THE DEFINITION OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AND SO IT IS\r\nDECLARED TO BE POST-TROPICAL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50\r\nKT DUE TO A LACK OF DATA NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THIS COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 165/11.  NADINE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY\r\nA DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NORTHEAST.  A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THERE ARE TWO FUTURE TRACK SCENARIOS FOR\r\nNADINE OR ITS REMNANTS.  THE FIRST IS THAT ENOUGH TROUGHING REMAINS\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO STEER IT GENERALLY EASTWARD.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE SECOND IS THAT DEEP-LAYER RIDGING\r\nDEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND STEERS IT IN A GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION.  THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MODELS.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF...GFS...\r\nUKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE SPLIT BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nSCENARIOS... MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO TELL WHICH WILL COME TO PASS. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE EASTWARD SCENARIO FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A SLOW FORWARD MOTION DUE TO THE VERY\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS MAY NOT BE THE LAST HURRAH FOR NADINE.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nSYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN AND RE-ACQUIRE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nCHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW\r\nA TRANSITION BACK TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TURNS WESTWARD UNDER THE\r\nRIDGE.  EVEN IF THIS TRANSITION DOES NOT OCCUR...THE MAJORITY OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS MAINTAIN NADINE AS A VIGOROUS CYCLONE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THUS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BY THE LAST ADVISORY ON NADINE BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 31.9N  26.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 31.0N  26.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 30.5N  25.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 30.7N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 31.4N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 32.5N  24.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 32.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  27/0000Z 33.0N  20.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":44,"Date":"2012-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 23 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NADINE HAS\r\nINCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER HAS THINNED A BIT THIS\r\nMORNING...THE LOW HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE YESTERDAY\r\nAFTERNOON. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN AN INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE PRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPS ABOUT HALF WAY\r\nAROUND THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE\r\nAND TROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS OF 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nNADINE IS CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. DROPSONDE DATA\r\nFROM AN ONGOING NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS ARE NEAR 50 KT. A DROPWINDSONDE NEAR THE CENTER AROUND 1030\r\nUTC MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 989.9 MB WITH STRONG WINDS...SO THE\r\nESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 986 MB.\r\n \r\nNADINE DRIFTED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...BUT A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE STARTED.  UNLIKE SEVERAL DAYS AGO...THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT NADINE WILL MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE EASTWARD\r\nNEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES\r\nINTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNADINE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND 26 DEGREES CELSIUS AND IN\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME.  IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND NADINE SHOULD BE\r\nMOVING OVER SLIGHTLY  WARMER WATER BY THEN.  AS A RESULT...GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BY 48 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS NADINE ATTAINING HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS...AND THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY BOTH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 30.6N  25.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 30.7N  26.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 31.0N  27.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 31.4N  28.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 31.5N  30.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 30.9N  31.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 30.5N  33.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 32.5N  36.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":45,"Date":"2012-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012\r\n \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE HAS GRADUALLY WANED\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INGESTION\r\nOF SOME DRY AIR INTO THE CIRCULATION AND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND\r\nEVENING DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nNUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 50 KT. NADINE HAD BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD...BUT IS\r\nNOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE TURNS NADINE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD WHILE A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN 4\r\nTO 5 DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...AS NADINE REMAINS IN MODERATE SHEAR AND OVER MARGINAL\r\nSSTS.  IN ADDITION....DRY AIR APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED AROUND MUCH\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION AND IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY TO REDEVELOP. ONE POSSIBLE SCENARIO IS FOR NADINE TO NOT\r\nREGAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION...AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL ONCE AGAIN.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES NADINE WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF WARMER SSTS...LESS SHEAR...AND SLIGHTLY\r\nMORE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...BUT IS THE SAME AS THE EARLIER FORECAST BY DAY 5. \r\nTHIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...BUT IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 31.0N  26.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 31.2N  26.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 31.5N  28.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 31.7N  29.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 31.6N  31.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 30.9N  32.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 31.0N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 33.5N  37.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":46,"Date":"2012-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2012\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS NOT VERY ABUNDANT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM\r\nAND IT IS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS TC INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS...SATCON...WHICH IS A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE DVORAK AND\r\nMICROWAVE ESTIMATES.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A MARGINAL\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH ABOUT 25 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR INFLUENCING THE CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SOON BECOME\r\nMORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A 200 MB\r\nTROUGH TO THE WEST OF NADINE CUTTING OFF AND SHIFTING SOUTHWARD IN\r\nA DAY OR SO...WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE SHOW THE SHEAR\r\nDIMINISHING SUBSTANTIALLY IN 36-48 HOURS.  THUS...ASSUMING THAT\r\nNADINE IS ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO SURVIVE AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SYSTEM HAS AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NEAR 290/3.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS MORE OR LESS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST- TO SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED RIDGE\r\nOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESS IS LIKELY\r\nTO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nAS A RESULT...NADINE IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY\r\nDAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nBETWEEN THE LATEST GFS DETERMINISTIC RUN AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 31.0N  26.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 31.4N  27.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 31.6N  28.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 31.6N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 31.3N  31.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 30.5N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 31.0N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 33.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":47,"Date":"2012-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND\r\nSHEAR PATTERN SATELLITE INTENSITY ANALYSES...SCATTEROMETER DATA...\r\nAND PRESSURE REPORTS FROM NEARBY BUOY 41676 INDICATE NADINE HAS\r\nWEAKENED SLIGHTLY.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 295/05\r\nKT.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF NADINE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO YET ANOTHER\r\nHIGH-OVER-LOW BLOCKING PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE\r\nRESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK STEERING PATTERN THAT WILL FORCE\r\nNADINE ON A WEST TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHORUS...BEFORE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY ND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...COLD WATER UPWELLING...AND MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...DECREASING SHEAR COMBINED WITH\r\nWARMER SSTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST INTENSIFICATION. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND IVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 31.4N  26.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 31.6N  27.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 31.7N  29.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 31.5N  30.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 30.9N  31.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 29.5N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 30.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 33.0N  35.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":48,"Date":"2012-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 24 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A BAND OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS MORNING.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS SHORTLY\r\nBEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING INDICATED 35-40 KT WINDS...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS NADINE REMAINS OVER\r\nMARGINAL SSTS...IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND WITHIN A\r\nFAIRLY DRY AIR MASS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHEN THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AND NADINE MOVES OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD....IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO\r\nTHE AMOUNT OF SHEAR NADINE WILL EXPERIENCE. THE GFS WHICH KEEPS\r\nNADINE FARTHER SOUTH...SUGGESTS A LESS FAVORABLE UPPER-AIR PATTERN\r\nTHAN THE ECMWF WHICH TAKES THE STORM MORE NORTHWARD AND CLOSER TO\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.  GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE\r\nLATTER PORTION OF THE PERIOD...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND JUST BELOW THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/6. NADINE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...NADINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE DEVELOPS\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE\r\nDIVERGENT THAN YESTERDAY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND\r\nHWRF KEEP NADINE IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND SHOW LITTLE OVERALL\r\nMOTION FROM 72 TO 120 HOURS. ON THE OTHER EXTREME...THE ECMWF AND\r\nUKMET TAKE NADINE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. FOR\r\nNOW...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nAND IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 31.7N  27.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 31.9N  28.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 31.7N  30.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 31.2N  30.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 30.6N  31.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 29.8N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 30.0N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 32.0N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":49,"Date":"2012-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012\r\n \r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nPORTION OF NADINE TODAY...AND THERE ARE SOME LOOSE CONVECTIVE BANDS.  \r\nHOWEVER...DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE THE WINDS THAT\r\nHAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES.  THE MOST\r\nCURRENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM THE OCEANSAT-2 SATELLITE INDICATED\r\nSIMILAR PEAK WINDS AS IN THE MORNING ASCAT PASS.  THEREFORE... THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 45 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING\r\nIS UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING.  NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A\r\nMARGINAL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER A LITTLE WARMER WATER AND\r\nINTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS VERTICAL SHEAR...SO MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRONGER\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nAND THIS SHOULD HALT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED.\r\n\r\nNADINE APPEARS TO BE TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n280/6.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN A DAY OR SO\r\nAS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE BLOCKING\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TAKING\r\nNADINE ALMOST DUE SOUTHWARD FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AS IT COMES UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED RIDGE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE EASTWARD WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN\r\nTRENDED TOWARD A SLOWER MOTION NEAR THE END FORECAST PERIOD...THUS\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS SLOWER AND SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 31.7N  28.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 31.7N  29.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 31.4N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 30.7N  30.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 29.8N  30.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 28.7N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 29.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 30.0N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":50,"Date":"2012-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 24 2012\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION...EXTENT...AND\r\nINTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE.  BANDING\r\nFEATURES REMAIN ILL-DEFINED AND THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE FOUND IN\r\nA CLUSTER TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  A RECENT\r\nSCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED HIGHEST WINDS OF 35 KT AND...EVEN\r\nACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF THESE DATA...IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nSUPPORT AN INTENSITY HIGHER THAN 40 KT AT THIS TIME.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO THE LATTER VALUE...WHICH REMAINS ABOVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THERE IS INCREASED OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW CUT OFF TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF NADINE.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH AND THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD TRAVERSE A WARMER OCEAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHEREFORE...STRENGTHENING IS STILL ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT\r\nNOW APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A WESTWARD COURSE WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF ABOUT 280/6.  FORECASTING THE TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS A CHALLENGE.  A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE WILL APPARENTLY CAUSE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND...BRIEFLY...SOUTHWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD...\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT AND HEAD NORTHWESTWARD IN\r\nTHE FLOW ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE\r\nDIVERGENT AT DAYS 4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF\r\nRATHER LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 32.2N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 32.2N  29.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 31.5N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 30.7N  30.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 29.9N  30.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 29.0N  31.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 29.5N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 31.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":51,"Date":"2012-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCLOUD FIELD...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED BECOME A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED. UW-CIMSS ADT AND NHC AODT SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE\r\nT2.6/37 KT AND T2.5/35 KT...AND A 25/0054 UTC OSCAT OVERPASS THAT\r\nARRIVED AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED SUPPORTS MAINTAINING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED\r\nTO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 260/5. OVERALL...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF NADINE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAMPLIFY AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE\r\nINCREASE IN NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DRIVE NADINE SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN\r\nTHE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT MOTION...THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED OF NADINE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER SLOW AT AROUND 5 KT. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN QUITE DIVERGENT AT DAYS\r\n4-5...SO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...IN CONJUNCTION WITH\r\nNADINE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD...SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS. AFTER 96 HOURS OR SO...SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE UNITED STATES.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 32.1N  29.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 31.8N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 31.1N  30.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 30.0N  30.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 29.0N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 29.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 30.0N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 32.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":52,"Date":"2012-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS A CLOUD FREE REGION NEAR THE CENTER IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IN THE SURROUNDING RING IS NOT\r\nVERY DEEP.  THIS YIELDS DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT STILL SEEM TO BE\r\nUNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF NADINE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nREMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT UW/CIMMS AMSU\r\nAND ADT ESTIMATES.  NADINE CONTINUES TO INGEST SOME DRY AIR EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE\r\nMOVES SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS.  THESE FACTORS FAVOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS FORECAST\r\nTO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTH IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS\r\nLIKELY TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nONLY CALLS FOR A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 2-3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n250/5.  THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A DEEPENING\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONG RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD IN A FEW DAYS...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD AS THE LARGE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN\r\nTHE TRACK PREDICTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 31.9N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 31.2N  30.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 30.4N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 29.5N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 28.6N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 28.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 30.0N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 32.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":53,"Date":"2012-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nA BAND OF CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nHAS WRAPPED AROUND ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE SEEN IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER\r\nOF 3.0 FROM SAB AND RECENT RAW T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS ADT SUGGEST\r\nTHAT NADINE COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER...BUT FOR NOW I PREFER TO\r\nKEEP THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT TO SEE IF THE CONVECTION CAN PERSIST.  \r\n\r\nNADINE APPEARS TO HAVE HESITATED FOR A TIME EARLIER TODAY...BUT \r\nTHE LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 4 KT. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING SINCE \r\nTHIS MORNING.  NADINE SHOULD TURN SOUTHWARD VERY SOON AS NORTHERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD...THEN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT WESTWARD NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD...BUT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MORE EASTERN GFS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...THE NEW TRACK HAS NOT BEEN ADJUSTED VERY\r\nFAR.\r\n\r\nEXCEPT FOR SOME DRY AIR THAT NADINE COULD INGEST DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER\r\nSSTS AND VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW.  THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IS IN LINE WITH\r\nTHE LATEST SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE NADINE TO\r\nWEAKEN.  HOWEVER...THE LONG-RANGE GLOBAL MODEL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE ALREADY TWO-WEEK-OLD CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER \r\nTHE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC FOR A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 31.7N  30.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 31.1N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 30.2N  30.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 29.3N  31.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 28.8N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 29.2N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 31.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 33.5N  35.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":54,"Date":"2012-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTRAL REGION OF NADINE CONTINUES TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY A\r\nBROAD CONVECTION-FREE AREA...WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS NOW SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT WHICH IS\r\nBETWEEN THE LATEST ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A\r\nLARGE FIELD OF STRATIFORM CLOUDS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF NADINE\r\nWHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A STABLE AIR MASS...AND NOT A CONDUCIVE\r\nFACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...VERTICAL SHEAR OVER\r\nNADINE IS NOT STRONG AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY\r\nWARM...AND SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE WARMER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nFARTHER SOUTH.  A MODEST INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nHALT STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nABOUT 210/4.  THIS MOTION...OR EVEN A SOUTHWARD MOTION...IS LIKELY\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A\r\nWELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nA STRONG TROUGH TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.  IN 2-3 DAYS...AS THE TROUGH\r\nMOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD...NADINE\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST.  NEAR THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE HIGH.  HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WILL MOVE TO A HIGH ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BRING ABOUT ITS\r\nDEMISE ANY TIME SOON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 31.2N  30.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 30.5N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 29.6N  30.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 28.7N  31.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 28.4N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 29.0N  34.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 31.0N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 33.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":55,"Date":"2012-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012\r\n \r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS FORMED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nBANDING HAS BECOME LESS WELL-DEFINED.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS\r\nKEPT AT 40 KT...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH EARLIER OSCAT DATA. PERHAPS\r\nTHIS NEW BURST IS A SIGN THAT NADINE IS ENTERING A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES OVER WARMER SSTS AND THE\r\nSHEAR STAYS MODEST.  HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL LIKELY BE FIGHTING\r\nSOME DRY STABLE AIR AS SUGGESTED BY A NEARBY STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK. \r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AT LONG RANGE...THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ALONG WITH A DECREASE IN SSTS...SO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL REDUCE THE WINDS SOMEWHAT AFTER DAY 3.  \r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. \r\nGLOBAL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE STORM\r\nGRADUALLY TURNING FROM A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nHEADING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE BUILDING\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  HOWEVER...IMPORTANT SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES BECOME VERY CLEAR...WITH THE GFS MODEL AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN NOT MOVING NADINE AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM.  THIS SOLUTION TRANSLATES INTO NADINE BEING FAR ENOUGH\r\nTO THE NORTH BY DAY 4 TO AVOID BEING CAUGHT BY YET ANOTHER\r\nRIDGE...AND FINALLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER COLD\r\nWATERS BY DAY 5.  OTHER MODELS...SUCH AS THE UKMET AND ECMWF...SHOW\r\nTHE STORM BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE...AGAIN...WITH LITTLE\r\nMOTION BY 120H.  THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SEEM OPTIMISTIC GIVEN THE\r\nPAST PERFORMANCE OF NADINE...BUT OVERALL THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS\r\nMOVING THE STORM A LOT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS CYCLES. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SPED UP FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 30.9N  30.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 30.2N  30.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 29.2N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 28.6N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 28.8N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 30.8N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 33.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 35.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":56,"Date":"2012-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 26 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.  VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS INCREASING CONVECTIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...\r\nALONG WITH DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONIC CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  A RECENT ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS SHOWED SEVERAL 40-KT VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...\r\nAND SUGGESTS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WIND HAS CONTRACTED TO\r\nABOUT 40 N MI.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KT...BASED\r\nON THE ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION 180/3.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...FORECASTING NADINE TO TURN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD...WESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE BECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 72 HR DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN\r\nTHE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED OF NADINE AND WHETHER THE STORM WILL\r\nRECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE CANADIAN MODEL SHOWS THE TROUGH\r\nACCELERATING NADINE TO THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS...GFDL...\r\nAND HWRF SHOW THE CYCLONE STALLING NEAR THE 120 HR POINT.  THE\r\nUKMET AND ECMWF SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING NADINE TO THE NORTH...\r\nWITH RIDGING BEHIND THE TROUGH CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO AGAIN MOVE\r\nSOUTHWARD.  THE GFS...IN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM ITS PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW MOTION AFTER THE\r\n96 HR POINT.  THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS MOVING OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS IN A\r\nLIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT SOME NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING\r\nTHE OUTFLOW.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS A RELATIVELY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT 36 HR...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. \r\nAFTER 36 HR...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A MOTION OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS SHOULD HALT INTENSIFICATION AND CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HR...AND IS LOWER THAN THOSE MODELS AFTER\r\nTHAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 30.6N  30.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 29.8N  30.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 28.9N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 28.7N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 29.4N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 32.0N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 35.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 36.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":57,"Date":"2012-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDING...NOW\r\nPRIMARILY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  AN EARLIER OSCAT\r\nOVERPASS SHOWED 40 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...AND THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATED FROM TAFB HAS INCREASED TO 45 KT. \r\nBASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.  NADINE IS\r\nPRODUCING GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT FOR THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  HOWEVER...DROPSONDES FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT\r\nNORTH OF NADINE SHOW 35-40 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING DRY AIR\r\nTOWARD THE STORM.  LATER DROPSONDES SHOULD HELP DETERMINE HOW MUCH\r\nOF THESE WINDS/DRY AIR ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE CORE OF NADINE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 200/4.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HR...FORECASTING NADINE TO TURN\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD...WESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AGAIN BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT AFTER 72 HR.  WHILE THE\r\nMODELS NOW AGREE THAT NADINE WILL NOT RECURVE AHEAD OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THERE CONTINUE TO BE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN\r\nTHE DIRECTION OF MOTION AFTER 96 HR.  THE GFDL...GFS...AND GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS SHOW A TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST\r\nDUE TO RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH.  FINALLY...THE HWRF AND\r\nTHE CANADIAN SHOW LITTLE MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS MINOR\r\nADJUSTMENTS DURING THE FIRST 48 HR...AND THEN IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  GIVEN THE MODEL SPREAD AFTER 96\r\nHR...THE NEW FORECAST IS FOR A VERY SLOW MOTION DURING THIS TIME. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A COMPLICATED UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWIND PATTERN NEAR NADINE.  FIRST IS THE 400 MB NORTHERLY WINDS\r\nMENTIONED ABOVE AND THEIR POSSIBLE IMPACT ON THE STORM.  SECOND...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N47W...WITH A\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF NADINE.  STRONG UPPER-\r\nLEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE OCCURRING JUST SOUTH OF THE TROUGH...BUT\r\nARE CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ALL FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NEAR NADINE AFTER\r\n36 HR.  HOWEVER...THEY ALL SHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD\r\nCONTINUE TO SHELTER NADINE FROM THE WORST OF THE SHEAR. FINALLY...\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW NADINE MERGING WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW BY 120 HR...WHICH COULD CHANGE THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nPROBABLY THE LEAST COMPLICATED PART OF THIS FORECAST IS THAT NADINE\r\nSHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE GENERALLY SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48-72\r\nHR.  DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY THAT SHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL AFFECT\r\nNADINE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SHORTER WINDOW FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY IN 24-36 HR.  IT ALSO CALLS\r\nFOR LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 30.2N  30.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 29.4N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 28.8N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 29.0N  34.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 29.7N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 32.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 35.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 36.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":58,"Date":"2012-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  58\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 26 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO A BAND\r\nCURVING AROUND THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS\r\nDROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK...SUPPORT HOLDING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. WHILE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SURROUND\r\nNADINE...THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF WARMER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD TO LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE LGEM MODEL AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nNADINE CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE\r\nLOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 220/5. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT NADINE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  BY DAY 4...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nAWAY FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WEAK\r\nENVIRONMENTAL STEERING CONDITIONS. THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY AT THIS POINT...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST A\r\nSLOW EASTWARD MOTION WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO\r\nSOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS IV15 AND FSSE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON A 2338 ASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 29.5N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 28.8N  32.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 28.6N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 29.1N  34.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 30.0N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 33.0N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 35.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 36.0N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":59,"Date":"2012-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  59\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION IN THE\r\nNORTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES.  DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA\r\nGLOBAL HAWK SHOWED A LAYER OF 65-70 KT WINDS BETWEEN 850 AND 950 MB\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  THESE DATA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE IMPROVED\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE A BIT\r\nHIGHER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.  FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH ONLY\r\nTHE HWRF MAKES NADINE A HURRICANE AGAIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nONLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...A BIT ABOVE THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS THIS\r\nFORECAST SEEMS CONSERVATIVE.  SOME WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN A FEW\r\nDAYS WHEN NADINE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 220/5.  THE STORM SHOULD TURN\r\nWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ON FRIDAY AS IT REMAINS\r\nSTEERED BY A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  WHILE THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST THREE\r\nDAYS...THE SPREAD INCREASES GREATLY BY DAY 5.  THIS SPREAD IS DUE\r\nTO DIFFERENCES IN HOW NADINE INTERACTS WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW NADINE\r\nRECURVING AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS\r\nINSTEAD SHOW NADINE MOVING SOUTHWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nAS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED BY THE TROUGH.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST SPLITS\r\nTHE DIFFERENCES AND SHOWS LITTLE MOTION AT DAY 5...ALTHOUGH I FEAR\r\nTHAT NADINE WILL FIND A WAY TO LINGER EVEN LONGER OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.   \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 28.9N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 28.5N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 28.6N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 29.4N  34.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 30.7N  35.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 33.5N  36.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 35.4N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 35.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":60,"Date":"2012-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  60\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 27 2012\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE\r\nHAS MOVED CLOSER TO THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN IS A LITTLE RAGGED AT THIS TIME.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 6 HR\r\nAGO...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nIS FAIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 240/6.  THE STORM IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HR.  THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N48W.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  AFTER THAT...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT.  THE\r\nGFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE\r\nSLOWLY EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nWESTERLIES AS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE UKMET...\r\nECMWF...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH\r\nWOULD STEER THE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES AND SHOWS A SLOW MOTION AT 96-120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK LIES NEAR THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 72 HR...AFTER\r\nWHICH IT LIES WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 29N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH\r\nTHE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR.  IN ADDITION...SMALL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH\r\nTHE STORM.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS NEAR NADINE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD\r\nPARTLY SHIELD NADINE FROM THE RESULTING SHEAR.  THE STATISTICAL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING A STRONGER STORM THAN IT DID\r\nDURING THE LAST ADVISORY CYCLE...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS NOW\r\n5-10 KT HIGHER THAN THEY WERE 6 HR AGO.  DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN\r\nTHE AMOUNT OF SHEAR...AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NADINE WILL MOVE OVER\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER 36 HR...THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CONSERVATIVELY STAYS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST IS STRONGER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...BUT\r\nIS WEAKER THAN SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 28.7N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 28.6N  33.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 29.0N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 30.1N  35.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 31.5N  35.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 34.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 35.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 36.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":61,"Date":"2012-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  61\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE HAS CHANGED FROM RAGGED TO\r\nWRAPPED-UP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH FORMATION OF A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN EARLIER ATTEMPT AT EYE FORMATION. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n55 KT...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THIS COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE...AS RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND\r\nCIRA HAVE BEEN 55-65 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...BUT IT IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE WHERE THERE ARE SIGNS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 255/6.  NADINE IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48-72 HR.  THIS WILL ALLOW NADINE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 30N48W.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN ITS DIVERGENCE.  THE GFS...GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...GFDL...AND HWRF FORECAST NADINE TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES\r\nAS A TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STORM.  THE UKMET...ECMWF...\r\nCANADIAN...AND NOGAPS FORECAST A RIDGE TO BUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF NADINE IN THE WAKE OF THE WESTERLY TROUGH...WHICH WOULD STEER\r\nTHE STORM BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST.  SINCE THERE IS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH A\r\nFORECAST SLOW MOTION AFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO INTERACT WITH THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N48W DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH\r\nTHE TWO SYSTEMS POSSIBLY MERGING BY 96-120 HR.  IN ADDITION...SMALL\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE LOW COULD ALSO INTERACT WITH\r\nTHE STORM.  WHILE IT IS EXPECTED THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nINCREASING SHEAR...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COULD\r\nPARTLY SHIELD THE STORM...AS WELL AS PROVIDE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE\r\nTHAT COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR\r\nAGREEMENT ON FORECASTING A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION BEFORE\r\nNADINE REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH SHEAR\r\nNADINE COULD ENCOUNTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 28.6N  32.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 28.8N  33.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 29.7N  34.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 31.2N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 32.9N  36.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 35.5N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 36.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 36.5N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":62,"Date":"2012-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  62\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT ON IR IMAGES IS THE\r\nBEST IT HAS BEEN IN A WEEK.  NADINE LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FAIR\r\nOUTFLOW. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE...INDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. NADINE\r\nHAS MANAGED TO AVOID OR REPEL THE SHEAR AND SURVIVED THE COOL\r\nWATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF\r\nSLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...BUT NOT MUCH...SHOULD THEN BEGIN IN 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER\r\nSHORTWAVE APPROACHES NADINE AND INCREASES THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.\r\nTHIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS SPENT A LARGE PORTION OF ITS LIFE TRAPPED WITHIN A\r\nBLOCKING PATTERN. IT IS NOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE...AND IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. SOON IT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE STORY DOES NOT END THERE...AND IT IS DEJA\r\nVU ALL OVER AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL\r\nAPPROACH NADINE...BUT IT WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...LEAVING\r\nNADINE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING FLOW AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DRIFTING\r\nAIMLESSLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR FROM AZORES. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...BOTH TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 28.8N  33.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 29.0N  34.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 30.4N  35.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 32.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 34.0N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 36.5N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 36.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 37.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":63,"Date":"2012-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  63\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nHAVING HINTS OF AN EYE ON THE INFRARED CHANNEL DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER\r\nCORE AND A MOSTLY CLOSED EYEWALL.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO\r\n60 KT...NEAR THE LATEST CIMSS MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.  WHILE THE SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK TO MODERATE...SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nCOOL...WHICH WILL PROBABLY PREVENT SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE NHC FORECAST LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY AT\r\n60 KT...ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING\r\nIF NADINE BECAME A HURRICANE AGAIN LATER TODAY OR SATURDAY.  IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE STORM SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH.  NADINE WILL ALSO BE MOVING\r\nOVER COLDER WATERS....AND THESE FACTORS SHOULD START A WEAKENING\r\nTREND.  THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nIN THE LONGER RANGE...CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  \r\n\r\nNADINE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KT.  A RIDGE\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON SATURDAY. \r\nGLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST\r\n48H OF THE FORECAST AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nPREDICTION.  AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT\r\nNADINE WILL STALL FOR A DAY OR SO AS IT WAITS FOR A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH.  THE FORECAST AIDS HAVE GENERALLY SHIFTED EASTWARD IN THE\r\nLONGER RANGE...WITH THE UKMET NOW JOINING A PACK OF MODELS THAT\r\nINCLUDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THIS SOLUTION.  THE\r\nNOTABLE OUTLIER IS THE ECMWF...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UNUSUAL\r\nSOUTHWARD CYCLONIC LOOP DUE TO NADINE MOVING WITHIN A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW.  GIVEN THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE\r\nAND THE FACT THAT MORE MODELS ARE TRENDING EASTWARD...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST WILL BE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTIONS FOR DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...BUT IS STILL CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE LATEST DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 29.0N  34.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 29.6N  34.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 31.1N  35.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 32.9N  36.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 35.0N  36.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 36.4N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 36.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 37.0N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":64,"Date":"2012-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  64\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 28 2012\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS DEVELOPED AN\r\nEYE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THIS FEATURE ALSO\r\nAPPEARING IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KT...WHILE RECENT AMSU-BASED\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA HAVE BEEN IN THE 60-75 KT\r\nRANGE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...NADINE HAS REGAINED HURRICANE STATUS\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/7.  FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO NADINE\r\nSHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED NEAR 32N48W.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO MERGE OR\r\nMOVE UNDER THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY\r\nIN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BRANCH\r\nOF THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH\r\n48 HR...BUT DIVERGES THERAFTER.  THE NOGAPS AND THE CANADIAN MODELS\r\nSHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR.  THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SHOW SOME TYPE OF EASTWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME...WITH THE\r\nECMWF AND UKMET NOW SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...SHOWING A NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nAND EASTWARD DRIFT.  THE NEW TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SHEAR NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR...AS SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE HURRICANE THAT COULD\r\nSHIELD IT FROM THE WORST OF THE FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE\r\nSHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS SHOW MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES IN 24 HR OR SO...WHICH SHOULD STOP INTENSIFICATION. \r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING NORTHERLY SHEAR AND\r\nEVEN COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO A STEADY\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON A\r\nRECENT ASCAT OVERPASS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 29.6N  34.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 30.5N  35.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 32.3N  36.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 34.2N  36.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 35.7N  37.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 36.5N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 36.5N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 36.5N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":65,"Date":"2012-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  65\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. \r\nAN EYE HAS MADE OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. \r\nHOWEVER...THE EYE AT THE MID-LEVEL SEEMS TO BE ABOUT 25 N MI NNE OF\r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR ANALYZED BY CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL.  REGARDLESS OF\r\nTHE TILT AND THE SHEAR...THE CURRENT DVORAK-BASED AND MICROWAVE-\r\nBASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65\r\nKT...AS DOES THE CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS METHOD.  THE CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY GOOD IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nRESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST SEMICIRCLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/7.  FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO NADINE\r\nSHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED NEAR 32N47W.  THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST NADINE TO MERGE OR\r\nMOVE UNDER THIS LOW IN 48-72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY\r\nIN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE MAIN BRANCH\r\nOF THE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW MOTION FROM\r\n48-96 HR IN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NADINE\r\nCOULD PERFORM AN CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THIS TIME AS SHOWN BY THE\r\nECMWF...UKMET...AND GFDL MODELS.  AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE WESTERLIES TO SINK SOUTHWARD TOWARD NADINE...WHICH\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE OLD THROUGH 96 HR...AND IS A\r\nLITTLE FASTER AT 120 HR.  HOWEVER...THE 120-HR POINT IS NOT AS FAR\r\nEAST AS MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SOME ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY\r\nIF THE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n\r\nIT NOW APPEARS THAT NADINE WILL ENCOUNTER 15-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-36 HR...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NO\r\nLONGER SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME.  A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY INTERACT WITH\r\nNADINE AROUND 48-72 HR...WHICH COULD PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS\r\nCURRENTLY IN TOO POOR OF AGREEMENT ON THIS TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  AFTER 72 HR...INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nAND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 30.1N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 31.3N  35.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 33.2N  36.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 35.1N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 36.1N  37.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 36.5N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 36.5N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 36.5N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":66,"Date":"2012-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  66\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON NADINE THIS EVENING.\r\nALTHOUGH A LITTLE BIT TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...THE CENTER CONTINUES\r\nTO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR TO\r\nTHE WEST AND RESTRICTED EVERYWHERE ELSE. BASED ON DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KNOTS. NADINE HAS\r\nOVERCOME THE SHEAR SO FAR...AND THERE IS NO REASON TO THINK THAT IT\r\nIS NOT GOING TO SURVIVE THE CURRENT 15 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR AND STAY\r\nAS A HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH...THE STRONGEST ONE SO FAR...IS DANGEROUSLY APPROACHING\r\nNADINE. MOST LIKELY...THE INTERACTION WITH THIS TROUGH...AND THE\r\nEFFECTS OF COLD WATERS...WILL RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\nHOWEVER...NADINE COULD ESCAPE THE TROUGH AGAIN AND MANAGE NOT TO\r\nWEAKEN AS MUCH AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. \r\n\r\nNADINE IS ALREADY ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THIS MOTION\r\nFOR ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF\r\nTHE FORECAST IS HIGH. AFTER THAT...NADINE WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE\r\nBASE OF THE WESTERLIES AND VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW. AT THAT\r\nTIME...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT...AND NADINE COULD THEN\r\nBEGIN TO MEANDER AIMLESSLY FOR A DAY OR TWO. A SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS ANTICIPATED BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOPEFULLY...NADINE WILL BE CARRIED\r\nEASTWARD BY THESE WINDS AND EVENTUALLY BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL \r\nCYCLONE. FOR NOW...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL HAVE TENACIOUS\r\nNADINE FOR AT LEAST 5 MORE DAYS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 31.0N  35.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 32.4N  36.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 34.6N  36.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 36.0N  37.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 36.5N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 36.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 36.5N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 37.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":67,"Date":"2012-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  67\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT VERTICAL SHEAR IS STARTING TO WEAKEN NADINE. ALMOST\r\nALL OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW AN INCREASING SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTERS.  WITH THE DEGRADATION IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...A BLEND OF THE T AND CI\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  WHILE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nMODERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SSTS SHOULD DECREASE AS NADINE\r\nGAINS LATITUDE.  NORMALLY THIS PATTERN WOULD CALL FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING...BUT UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO\r\nCOOL...WHICH COULD HELP THE CYCLONE KEEP ITS STRENGTH.  VERY LITTLE\r\nCHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE\r\nSLIGHTLY WEAKER INITIAL STATE. \r\n\r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE PASSES GIVE A CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n340/10.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR A DAY OR SO UNTIL\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS BREAK DOWN TO THE NORTHWEST OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  MODEL GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT IS GENERALLY SHOWING MORE\r\nINTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WHICH CAUSES NADINE TO UNDERGO A CYCLONIC\r\nLOOP IN 2 TO 4 DAY TIME FRAME.  THE ECMWF MODEL HAS BEEN FAIRLY\r\nCONSISTENTLY SHOWING THIS LOOP...AND NOW MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW IT\r\nBESIDES THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TRENDED\r\nTOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FIRST DAY\r\nOR SO...AND A SMALL SOUTHWARD LOOP IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.  A RATHER\r\nLARGE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN AT BY DAY 5...WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY CAUSE NADINE TO FINALLY\r\nLEAVE THE SUBTROPICS.  MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE STORM\r\nBECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5 DUE TO COLDER WATERS AND STRONGER\r\nSHEAR...BUT GIVEN PAST EXPERIENCE...I HAVE ELECTED NOT TO SHOW THIS\r\nTRANSITION YET.  \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 31.9N  35.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 33.5N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 35.4N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 36.4N  37.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 36.2N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 35.5N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 35.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 37.5N  33.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":68,"Date":"2012-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  68\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 29 2012\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW 20\r\nKT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NADINE HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AN EYE HAS RE-APPEARED IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY...AND AN SSM/IS OVERPASS AT 1112 UTC SHOWED THAT\r\nTHE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE NOW MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KT. \r\nALSO...CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES ARE NEAR 80 KT...AND A RECENT CIMSS AMSU\r\nESTIMATE IS 64 KT.  BASED ON THESE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 65 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/12.  NADINE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO MERGE WITH THE LOW BETWEEN\r\n24-72 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM THEN CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING\r\nCURRENTS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NADINE\r\nWILL SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR. \r\nTHE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS THE LARGEST LOOP...WITH THE CENTER OF\r\nNADINE MOVING SOUTH OF 30N BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE LOOP SCENARIO...BUT TO KEEP CONTINUITY\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT SHOWS LESS OF A SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE GUIDANCE.  AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A LARGE BAROCLINIC CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST 30N.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER NADINE TO THE\r\nEAST OR NORTHEAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS ROTATING AROUND\r\nTHE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NOW APPROACHING NADINE FROM THE SOUTH.\r\nIT IS POSSIBLE THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE\r\nTO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY DESPITE THE SHEAR...SO THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS NADINE A HURRICANE THROUGH 24 HR.  NADINE\r\nCOULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SHEAR AS IT MERGES WITH THE LOW. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS...WITH\r\nTHE GFS SHOWING CYCLONIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE STORM AT 36 HR\r\nAND THE ECMWF SHOWING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THE MERGER BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT IT\r\nWILL AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE OF NADINE.  LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND THE BAROCLINIC\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR THIS AT 120 HR...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE DELAYED IF NADINE\r\nIS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST POSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 33.3N  36.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 34.8N  36.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 36.4N  37.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 36.7N  38.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 36.3N  38.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 35.5N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 35.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 38.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":69,"Date":"2012-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  69\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\n20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...NADINE HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  THE EYE HAS BECOME MORE APPARENT IN\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN\r\nBANDING AROUND THE EYE.  A RECENT SSM/IS OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE\r\nEYE IS TILTED TOWARD THE NORTH...BUT THE TILT IS LESS THAN THIS\r\nTIME YESTERDAY.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...THE CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS NEAR 80 KT...THE LATEST\r\nAMSU ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AND CIRA ARE IN THE 70-80 KT RANGE...AND\r\nTHE LATEST CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE IS 78 KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A\r\nLITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/13.  NADINE IS BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nTO THE EAST AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO MERGE WITH THE LOW BETWEEN 24-72\r\nHR...WITH THE SYSTEM THEN CAUGHT IN AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING\r\nCURRENTS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT NADINE\r\nWILL SLOW DOWN AND MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP DURING THE NEXT 96 HR.\r\nTHE CANADIAN MODEL FORECASTS THE LARGEST LOOP...WITH THE CENTER OF\r\nNADINE MOVING SOUTHWARD TO 30N BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION DURING THE LOOP THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL NOT AS MUCH AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  AFTER 96 HR...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A LARGE\r\nBAROCLINIC CYCLONE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITH\r\nTHE ASSOCIATED WESTERLY WINDS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO AT LEAST 30N. \r\nTHIS SYSTEM SHOULD STEER NADINE TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST NEAR THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nNADINE DOES NOT APPEAR AS SHEARED AS THE CIMSS/SHIPS-ANALYZED SHEAR\r\nSUGGESTS...AND IT MAY BE THAT A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY SHELTERING IT.  THIS\r\nTROUGH COULD ALSO PROVIDE SOME FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE...\r\nAND THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HR.  FROM 24-72 HR...NADINE\r\nCOULD ENCOUNTER DECREASING SHEAR AS IT MERGES WITH THE\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  HOWEVER...THIS MERGER IS LIKELY TO AT LEAST\r\nSOMEWHAT DISRUPT THE STRUCTURE...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR WEAKENING DURING THIS\r\nTIME.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION BETWEEN NADINE AND\r\nTHE BAROCLINIC CYCLONE SHOULD LEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. \r\nTHE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AT 120 HR...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE\r\nDELAYED IF NADINE IS SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 34.4N  36.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 35.8N  37.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 36.7N  38.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 36.5N  38.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 35.9N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 35.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 35.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 38.5N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":70,"Date":"2012-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  70\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 29 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN MICROWAVE DATA AND\r\nCONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY\r\nRELATIVELY DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE\r\nPRIMARILY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THE BLEND OF\r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. NADINE COULD EXPERIENCE SOME SMALL\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE\r\nENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE\r\nTO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY...WITH LOW SHEAR BUT A RELATIVELY\r\nCOOL OCEAN.  AFTER THAT...NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A\r\nLARGE TROUGH AND GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nNADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO APPROACH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING\r\nCURRENTS AND CONSEQUENTLY...NADINE WILL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nSOON. ANOTHER SHORT-LIVED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FORM NORTHWEST OF\r\nNADINE...AND THIS PATTERN WILL AGAIN TRAP THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP\r\nTHROUGH THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE FLOW AROUND THIS TROUGH WILL\r\nFINALLY KICK NADINE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH AROUND THE\r\nDEEPENING TROUGH.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE HOW THE TRACK MODELS\r\nUNANIMOUSLY INSIST ON LOOPING NADINE BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH AND THEN\r\nTURN THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS...THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 35.6N  37.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 36.8N  38.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 37.0N  39.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 36.5N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 35.5N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 35.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 36.0N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 41.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":71,"Date":"2012-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  71\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE APPEARS TO HAVE GAINED A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH THIS MORNING.\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nEXPANDED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE RAGGED EYE DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T4.5/77 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 4.7/82 KT. BASED ON\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 80 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN. THE STEERING CURRENTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN LATER TODAY AS NADINE BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN A PAIR OF\r\nRIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS COMPLEX\r\nPATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OR\r\nMOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DURING THAT TIME. AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE\r\nREMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HOW\r\nNADINE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nANTICIPATED. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...\r\nFOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE WHEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARS THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW NADINE\r\nTRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 36.6N  37.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 37.2N  38.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 36.9N  39.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 36.1N  39.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 35.4N  38.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 35.4N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 38.5N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 46.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":72,"Date":"2012-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  72\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME A LITTLE SMALLER AND BETTER DEFINED\r\nTHIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nSOMEWHAT.  THIS RESULTS IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MOST RECENT\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS...AND A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 80 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A\r\nLOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE NADINE\r\nIS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT MOVE VERY FAR...THERE COULD BE\r\nSOME UPWELLING WHICH WILL CAUSE THE ALREADY MARGINAL SSTS TO COOL.\r\nAT THE SAME TIME...THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO COOL WHICH\r\nCOULD OFFSET THE COOLER WATER.  THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER\r\nALONG THE PATH OF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND NADINE\r\nIS PREDICTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12-18\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER THE HURRICANE SHOULD SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY LATER\r\nTODAY AS THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN ONCE AGAIN.  NADINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO COMPLETE A COUNTERCLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS IT REMAINS BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND\r\nWEST AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE\r\nCOAST OF CANADA.  THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND CUT OFF\r\nAS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 4-5 DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD FINALLY CAUSE NADINE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...HOWEVER\r\nTHERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD\r\nAS TO WHETHER NADINE CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nATLANTIC OR TURNS WESTWARD AND IS ABSORBED BY THE UPPER-LOW.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 37.1N  38.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 37.3N  39.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 36.6N  39.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 35.9N  39.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 35.6N  38.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 36.3N  35.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 40.8N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 48.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":73,"Date":"2012-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  73\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE EYE OF NADINE HAS BECOME MORE\r\nRAGGED AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED. HOWEVER...\r\nDVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 4.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 80 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING MARKEDLY FROM\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. UNTIL THAT TIME...NADINE IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER AND SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY...AND SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BECOME MUCH\r\nCOLDER. FASTER WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AT THE LATTER PART\r\nOF THE FORECAST...AND NADINE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT \r\n5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS SLOWING DOWN AND BEGINNING ITS COUNTERCLOCKWISE TURN. THE\r\nESTIMATED MOTION IS 290/6...BUT THE HURRICANE WILL SOON BE SLOWING\r\nDOWN FURTHER AND TURNING TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE SHOULD BEGIN FEELING THE PRESENCE OF\r\nSTRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AT WHICH TIME\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW. THERE ARE STILL SOME MODEL\r\nDIFFERENCES BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS\r\nNADINE CONTINUING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION UNTIL IT BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE\r\nCYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AND REVOLVING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN\r\nTHESE TWO SCENARIOS...LYING CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 37.2N  39.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 37.0N  39.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 36.2N  39.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 35.7N  38.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 35.5N  37.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 37.0N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 43.5N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 49.5N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":74,"Date":"2012-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  74\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED...AND\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING. THERE HAS ALSO\r\nBEEN AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION...\r\nWITH THE BULK OF WHAT REMAINS PIVOTING FROM WEST TO SOUTH AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND\r\nOF T- AND CI-NUMBERS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT.\r\nA SLOW BUT STEADY DECAY OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS AS NADINE ENCOUNTERS GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR AND THE\r\nCOLD WAKE THAT THE CYCLONE GENERATED YESTERDAY. FROM 24-72 HOURS...\r\nA MARKED INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SHEAR AND EVEN\r\nCOOLER WATERS COULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING TREND. PROHIBITIVELY HIGH\r\nSHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS MIGHT RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE STORM...\r\nAND NADINE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER...IN 96\r\nHOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A\r\nCYCLONIC LOOP...AND THE SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n230/06. THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE NORTH OF NADINE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN NADINE\r\nSLOWING FURTHER AS IT HEADS BACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-\r\nEASTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD TURN EASTWARD\r\nAND NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE\r\nMOVING OUT OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD THE RIGHT...BUT\r\nIS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 36.7N  39.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 36.3N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 35.7N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 35.2N  37.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 35.4N  36.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 38.0N  31.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 44.6N  26.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  06/0000Z 50.0N  27.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nadine","Adv":75,"Date":"2012-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  75\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nSHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND A RATHER THIN BAND OF\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS ONLY WRAPS ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED AND SUPPORT\r\nLOWERING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED TO 65 KT...AND EVEN THAT COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS. NADINE HAS MOVED OVER COOLER WATERS...WHERE THE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 22C ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS.\r\nTHESE COOL WATERS ARE AT LEAST IN PART CAUSED BY NADINE ITSELF THAT\r\nWAS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION ABOUT A DAY\r\nAGO. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN\r\nFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS AIDS. NADINE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND DAY 4...WHEN IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS BELOW 20C AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF\r\nABOUT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT...STEERED BY\r\nNORTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TURN TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS NADINE BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSTRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE IN THE SHORT TERM...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE...BUT\r\nIS GENERALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND THAT.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 36.3N  39.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 35.6N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 35.1N  38.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 34.9N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 35.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 38.5N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 46.0N  26.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  06/0600Z 50.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":76,"Date":"2012-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  76\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NADINE\r\nCONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN\r\nAND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF\r\nSATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS\r\nADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT...MAKING\r\nNADINE A TROPICAL STORM...AGAIN.\r\n \r\nNADINE IS NEARING THE END OF ANOTHER LOOP AS IT MOVES TO THE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED\r\nAS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...NADINE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND BEGIN\r\nACCELERATING TO THE NORTH BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME\r\nDISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER NADINE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE\r\nTROUGH...OR WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW. \r\nTHE FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF\r\nNADINE SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 5...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME ABSORBED\r\nBEFORE THAT.\r\n \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 23 C...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 4...\r\nNADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  IN\r\nFACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE\r\nFSSE CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD\r\nTHE ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 35.8N  39.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 35.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 34.9N  37.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 34.9N  36.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 35.4N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 40.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 47.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  06/1200Z 49.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":77,"Date":"2012-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  77\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE NEARLY THREE-WEEK-OLD NADINE HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...AND DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nCONFINED TO A SINGLE BAND WHICH IS SLOWLY ROTATING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE FALLEN TO 3.5 AND\r\n3.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT\r\nBASED ON THESE...AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED WINDS OF\r\n45-50 KT IN A CONVECTIVE-FREE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS DRIFTED TO THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE LONG-TERM\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 180/4. WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY\r\nCAUGHT IN WEAK STEERING FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...IT IS EXPECTED TO PICK UP SPEED AND TURN TO\r\nTHE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. BY DAY 3...MOST\r\nOF THE MODELS SHOW NADINE BEING ADVECTED QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AS A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL LOW...BEFORE BECOMING COMPLETELY ABSORBED BY THE\r\nTROUGH. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER FROM THIS SOLUTION...AND\r\nSHOWS THE RESILIENT CIRCULATION OF NADINE PUSHING EASTWARD ALL THE\r\nWAY TO GREAT BRITAIN. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nPOSSIBILITIES...HOWEVER...IT NOW SHOWS NADINE BEING ABSORBED BY DAY\r\n5. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THIS\r\nCYCLE...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS NADINE EXPERIENCES AN\r\nINCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENOUGH OF A\r\nPRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT TO MAINTAIN GALE-FORCE WINDS...\r\nEVEN AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES POST-TROPICAL. THE NEW FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 35.4N  39.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 35.0N  38.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 34.7N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 34.7N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 35.8N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 42.4N  27.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 47.5N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  06/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":78,"Date":"2012-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  78\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 01 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF NEVER-ENDING NADINE HAS MADE A\r\nCOMEBACK THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF CONVECTION...\r\nWITH CLOUD TOPS TO NEAR -60C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND THE OLD EYE\r\nFEATURE. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO CONFIRMS THIS RECENT\r\nRE-DEVELOPMENT TREND. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nHAVE DECREASED TO 3.0/45 KT...THE RECENT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF EYEWALL\r\nCONVECTION ARGUES THAT THE INTENSITY BE MAINTAINED AT 55 KT...\r\nESPECIALLY SINCE THE CYCLONE IS JUST NOW ENTERING THE NOCTURNAL\r\nCONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED IN\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE BASED ON TWO CONSECUTIVE 34-KT WIND REPORTS\r\nFROM SHIP VRBU6...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH 01/2210Z SSMIS-DERIVED\r\nSURFACE WINDS CO-LOCATED IN THAT SAME AREA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 125/05 KT. NOMADIC NADINE HAS\r\nFINALLY MADE THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN EASTWARD AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND. AS THE TROUGH/LOW DEEPENS WHILE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE AZORES...THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON\r\nTHE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE NADINE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST ON DAYS 2 AND 3. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A\r\nCOUNTERCLOCKWISE MOTION AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE AMPLIFYING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW ON DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY THE\r\nLARGER SYSTEM ON DAY 5. THE NHC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT NADINE HAS FOUND A SWEET SPOT OF\r\nLOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED BENEATH\r\nTHE AXIS OF A BROAD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. HOWEVER...THIS \r\nSHELTERING OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED\r\nAS THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY EASTWARD AND EXPOSES NADINE TO\r\nHOSTILE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nTROUGH AXIS AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE INCREASING SHEAR COUPLED\r\nWITH DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 20C...\r\nWHICH SHOULD FINALLY BRING ABOUT THE PERMANENT DEMISE OF THIS\r\nRESILIENT AND LONG-LASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 34.7N  38.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 34.2N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 34.2N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 34.9N  34.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 36.7N  31.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 44.0N  26.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 48.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":79,"Date":"2012-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  79\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MAINTAINING A RING OF MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A\r\nRAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 55 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A REGION OF\r\nRELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH.  HOWEVER AS NADINE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...AND\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nBELOW 20 DEG C.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3\r\nDAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY 72 HOURS...GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD\r\nSSTS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO HAVE UNDERGONE THE TRANSFORMATION INTO\r\nA POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING\r\nFRONTAL IN NATURE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR TO\r\nMERGE WITH...A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC. \r\n \r\nNADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING EASTWARD...AND THE MOTION IS NOW AROUND\r\n105/6.  FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nFORECAST...AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.  A\r\nVIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IS\r\nFORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND RESULT IN A LARGE AND STRONG\r\nDEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.  NADINE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN\r\nTHE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS\r\nOR SO.  AFTERWARDS...IF POST-TROPICAL NADINE HAS STILL MAINTAINED\r\nITS IDENTITY...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE AROUND THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CYCLONE UNTIL BECOMING COMPLETELY\r\nABSORBED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 34.5N  38.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 34.3N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 34.7N  35.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 35.9N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 38.8N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 45.5N  26.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 49.0N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":80,"Date":"2012-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  80\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF NADINE\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A RING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS\r\nWRAPS AROUND A RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB...SUGGESTING THAT NADINE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN\r\nBEFORE.  HOWEVER...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS MAINTAINED.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE\r\nHOSTILE OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED \r\nTO INCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  AS A RESULT...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED IN THE NHC\r\nFORECAST...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.  NADINE\r\nSHOULD LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER SSTS BELOW 20C AFTER\r\nPASSING THE AZORES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE POST-TROPICAL LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE\r\nEAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nNADINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 6 KT...BUT AN\r\nEASTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED VERY SOON.  BY WEDNESDAY...THE STORM \r\nSHOULD BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH THAT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  NADINE \r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE\r\nTROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nNEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT DATA.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 34.2N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 34.4N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 35.3N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 37.1N  31.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 40.7N  28.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 46.5N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":81,"Date":"2012-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  81\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nWARMING AND BANDING FEATURES BECOMING LESS PRONOUNCED.  DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO\r\n50 KT.  AS NADINE BEGINS TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NADINE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND FINALLY\r\nLOSE ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED BY A VERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nLOW OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS TURNED EASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 090/6 KT.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE TURNING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT \r\nIS STEERED AROUND A LARGE TROUGH/CUT-OFF LOW THAT WILL MOVE\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 34.4N  36.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 34.9N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 36.0N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 39.0N  29.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 43.2N  26.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 48.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  06/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":82,"Date":"2012-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  82\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 02 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING SHEARED APART AS\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN PROTECTING IT MOVES OFF TO\r\nTHE EAST...EXPOSING THE CYCLONE TO INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nT-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WIND RADII WERE\r\nADJUSTED INWARD SLIGHTLY BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 02/2317\r\nUTC...WHICH CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF NADINE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NADINE GRADUALLY TURNING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL\r\nOR WESTERN AZORES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS. IN THE 36- TO 72-HOUR TIME\r\nFRAME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AS IT IS STEERED\r\nAROUND A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC AND AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR PATTERN COULD BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. AS NADINE APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NORTH OF THE\r\nAZORES ISLANDS...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL SHARPLY DECREASE TO\r\nLESS THAN 20C. THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WOULD\r\nNORMALLY PRODUCE RAPID WEAKENING AND/OR DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. IN THIS CASE...HOWEVER...THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TROPOSPHERE\r\nIS ALSO FORECAST TO COOL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH\r\nINSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AND ALLOW NADINE TO\r\nHANG ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES.\r\nBY 48 HOURS...HOSTILE VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nAMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE\r\nOF NADINE BY DAY 3...WITH ITS REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED INTO A VERY\r\nLARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 34.4N  35.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 35.2N  33.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 37.2N  30.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...SOUTHWEST OF AZORES\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 40.8N  28.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...NORTH OF AZORES\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 44.6N  26.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 48.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":83,"Date":"2012-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  83\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012\r\n\r\nNADINE IS SHOWING A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING...WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION DUE TO 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nT-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nNOW 075/9.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND\r\nASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NADINE FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE THE MUCH SMALLER NADINE TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT 48 HR...AND DURING THIS TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE BECOMES\r\nDIVERGENT BETWEEN 48-72 HR...WITH THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE NOW\r\nFORECASTING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CALL\r\nFOR NADINE TO TURN WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW.  THIS\r\nPART OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n\r\nNADINE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE STORM REACHES THE\r\nAZORES...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME WEAKENING OCCURRED. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING ABSORBED\r\nWITHIN THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AFTER 72 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON INPUT FROM THE\r\nOCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 34.9N  34.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 35.8N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 38.7N  29.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 42.7N  27.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 46.8N  25.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":84,"Date":"2012-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  84\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG SHEAR CONTINUES OVER NADINE...AND THE CENTER IS NOW\r\nCOMPLETELY SEPARATED FROM A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND RECENT ASCAT DATA\r\nSUGGEST WINDS ARE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING. STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATER SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...\r\nAND NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS OR MUCH EARLIER BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nNADINE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST OR 080 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS AHEAD OF\r\nAN APPROACHING FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT. THE TROPICAL STORM IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...BUT SOON NADINE SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nNORTH AROUND THE LOW WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. TRACK\r\nMODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO PRIMARILY FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS. MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH NADINE IS SOUTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE\r\nAZORES TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 35.1N  33.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 36.8N  31.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 40.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 44.5N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 47.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 48.0N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":85,"Date":"2012-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  85\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP\r\nCONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED\r\nA POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS\r\nIT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nNADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16\r\nKT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE\r\nSHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS\r\nEMBEDDED. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 36.1N  31.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 38.0N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 43.0N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 46.5N  25.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 48.0N  25.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  06/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":86,"Date":"2012-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  86\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE IS A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS CURRENTLY\r\nSITUATED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN EXTREMELY LARGE OCCLUDED\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH NADINE IS NOT A\r\nCLASSICAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...RECENT SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AND WELL-PRONOUNCED BAND OF SHALLOW\r\nTO MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...DESPITE\r\nTHE RATHER DEGRADED AND POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY CI-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND A 36-KT WIND REPORT\r\nFROM SHIP BATFR18 LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT AT 0200 UTC. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21 KT. NADINE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nFLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MUCH LARGER DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE CURRENT NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN 48\r\nTO 72 HOURS...THEN POST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL NADINE IS FORECAST\r\nTO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW IN\r\nWHICH IT IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY..AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCA.\r\n\r\nTHE 36-KT SHIP REPORT AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IN EXCESS OF 20 KT\r\nARGUES FOR KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT FROM NOW THROUGH LANDFALL\r\nIN THE AZORES. NADINE COULD MERGE WITH EITHER A COLD FRONT\r\nAPPROACHING FROM THE WEST OR CATCH UP TO AND MERGE WITH A WARM\r\nFRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. BUT BY 24\r\nHOURS...CLEAR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY. REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nSTATUS OF NADINE...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE\r\nTROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AZORES\r\nLATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BASED\r\nON SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS FROM SHIPS WITH CALL\r\nSIGNS BATFR13...BATFR15...AND BATFR18...WHICH HAVE BEEN NAVIGATING\r\nTHROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION OF NADINE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 37.4N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 40.2N  28.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 44.5N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 47.0N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 49.0N  27.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nadine","Adv":87,"Date":"2012-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  87\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012\r\n \r\nNADINE IS LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS THIS MORNING.  THERE\r\nIS NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER...AND WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS\r\nIN A BAND WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...A\r\nCOLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE WEST.  RECENT AMSU DATA\r\nINDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A WARM CORE...SO IT WILL BE\r\nKEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGERY CAN BETTER REVEAL\r\nTHE STRUCTURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A\r\n37-KT WIND REPORT AT LAJES AIR FORCE BASE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/20.  NADINE IS BEING STEERED BY A\r\nLARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HR...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES THE NORTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE LOW.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nNADINE SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION DURING THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HR...MAINTAINING GALE-FORCE WINDS DURING AND AFTER THE\r\nTRANSITION.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BEING ABSORBED INTO\r\nTHE PREVIOUSLY-MENTIONED EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 48-72 HR...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 38.4N  28.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 41.9N  26.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 45.2N  26.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 47.0N  26.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 48.5N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Nadine","Adv":88,"Date":"2012-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  88\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012\r\n \r\nBYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE\r\nEASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC\r\nADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. SATELLITE IMAGES AND\r\nASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT BY 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...NADINE NO\r\nLONGER HAD A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HAD BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nCOLD FRONT. PENDING A POST-STORM ANALYSIS...NADINE WILL TIE GINGER\r\nOF 1971 AS THE SECOND-LONGEST-LASTING ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ON\r\nRECORD AT 21.25 DAYS. AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH INCLUDES THE\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE...IT IS THE FIFTH-LONGEST-LASTING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD IN THE BASIN...AT 21.75 DAYS.\r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS KEEP A VORTICITY MAXIMUM...ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF NADINE...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE IN\r\nA DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 40.0N  26.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...THERE WERE CONFLICTING SIGNALS CONCERNING\r\nTHE EXISTENCE AND LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC.  VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT A MORE DEFINITIVE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS TAKEN SHAPE...CONSISTING OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS\r\nROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nDISPLACED FROM THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH ORGANIZATION\r\nTO DEEM THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 30\r\nKT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED\r\nNORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.  SINCE A CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT\r\nTO TRACK...THE INITIAL MOTION OF 320/13 KT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE ANTICYCLONE AND GETS\r\nPICKED UP IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW\r\nOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nDEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ALREADY INCREASING NEAR THE DEPRESSION AND IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHEREFORE...VERY LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  IN FACT...EVERY GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC LOW BY 72 HOURS...AND THAT RESULT IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 17.3N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 19.1N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 20.6N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 22.2N  41.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 24.3N  38.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DEFINED BY SEVERAL SWIRLS\r\nREVOLVING AROUND A COMMON POINT...WHICH IS DISPLACED ABOUT 80 N MI\r\nTO THE WEST OF A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS\r\nARE 2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE CYCLONE REMAINS A 30-KT\r\nDEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR\r\nINFILTRATING THE CIRCULATION FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN A DAY OR\r\nSO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRADDLES THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nTHRESHOLD...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF STRENGTHENING DID NOT\r\nOCCUR. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING\r\nINTO A TROUGH IN 48HR...AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/12 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR THE CAPE VERDE\r\nISLANDS AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD\r\nISLANDS. A NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IN 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS MOTION SHOULD THEN\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 18.6N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 19.7N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 21.2N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 22.9N  40.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS MORPHED INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF\r\nCOLD-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND\r\nCOVERAGE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI WEST OF THE NEAREST DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. AT\r\n0000 UTC...DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 2.0 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND A 0030 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED SEVERAL\r\nUNCONTAMINATED 35 KT WIND BARBS ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nBASED PRIMARILY ON THE ASCAT PASS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM OSCAR WITH A CONSERVATIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 35\r\nKT. OSCAR IS ON THE CUSP OF ENTERING AN EVEN HIGHER SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT OSCAR OPENING\r\nUP INTO A TROUGH AND THEN LOSING ITS IDENTITY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT\r\nIN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS.  \r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF OSCAR HAS SLOWED SOME IN RECENT HOURS...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/10.  STEERED BY THE FLOW IN\r\nBETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND A\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...OSCAR\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS\r\nIT DECELERATES FURTHER.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED IN A STRONG AND DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A\r\nLARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...WHICH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SHARP RECURVATURE AND A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACCELERATION.  ONLY SMALL ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST THROUGH 24 HOURS...WITH THE TRACK SHIFTED A BIT TOWARD THE\r\nRIGHT PRIOR TO DISSIPATION...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 19.3N  42.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 20.5N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 22.0N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 23.8N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...IT REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS DUE TO\r\n15-20 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35\r\nKT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND THE\r\nLATEST SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS. LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS OSCAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING OSCAR OPENING INTO A\r\nTROUGH ON FRIDAY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF OSCAR IS QUITE BROAD WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS\r\nEVIDENT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/8. THE LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD CAUSING OSCAR TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY. BY FRIDAY...A FASTER\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS OSCAR...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL\r\nLIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE\r\nLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES\r\nCLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 20.0N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 21.1N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 22.7N  40.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 24.9N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012\r\n \r\nABOUT 20 KT OF DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ABOUT 100 N MI EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DESPITE THE\r\nHOSTILE CONDITIONS...OSCAR HAS STRENGTHENED...AND A 1300 UTC ASCAT\r\nPASS INDICATED THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 40 KT.  THE\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  STRONG SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE AFFECTING OSCAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR OSCAR TO\r\nDISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS WHEN IT GETS OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT...\r\nMATCHING THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nOSCAR HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n020/8 KT.  THE STORM IS APPROACHING STRONGER MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR\r\nADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50\r\nLFPW.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 20.6N  41.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 21.8N  40.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 23.8N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012\r\n \r\nOSCAR IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM.  SEVERAL LOW CLOUD\r\nSWIRLS ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHAT CENTER.  SINCE THE STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED SINCE THE 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 40 KT.  STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE\r\nCYCLONE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nTHEREFORE ANTICIPATED.  OSCAR IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 36 HOURS\r\nNEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE\r\nUKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL PROVE TO BE RIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/10 KT.  OSCAR HAS BEGUN TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS ANTICIPATED...AND IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSPEED UP AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nDIGGING DEEP-LAYER LOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nUNTIL THE EXPECTED DISSIPATION...EVEN IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THE\r\nUPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...LIKELY TO GALE FORCE...ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR\r\nADDITIONAL FORECAST INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS\r\nISSUED BY THE METEO FRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50\r\nLFPW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 21.3N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 22.8N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 26.0N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n1100 PM AST THU OCT 04 2012\r\n \r\nOSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nTHIS EVENING.  THE LARGE SYSTEM HAS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ALONG WITH AN EXPOSED CENTER.  A\r\nLARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER...HAS FORMED A LITTLE\r\nCLOSER TO THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A RECENT ASCAT\r\nPASS HAD A SIZABLE AREA OF WINDS OF AROUND 40 KT ABOUT 90 N MI\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT\r\nAFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE LOW BIAS OF ASCAT.  DESPITE OSCAR MOVING\r\nFASTER OVER WARM WATERS...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED\r\nDUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE\r\nSAME TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT\r\n24H AS SUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/10 KT.  THE STORM SHOULD ACCELERATE SOON\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE SYSTEM SHOULD ABSORB OSCAR IN ABOUT A DAY.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A SHADE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nPREDICTION.\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF\r\nTHE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST\r\nINFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO\r\nFRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 22.0N  40.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 24.0N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Oscar","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n500 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012\r\n \r\nOSCAR REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\nDUE TO CONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED BEFORE OSCAR IS ABSORBED BY AN ONCOMING COLD FRONT LATER\r\nTODAY OR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nOSCAR IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF\r\nA LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT OSCAR\r\nSHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED BY THE COLD\r\nFRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW...WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF\r\nTHE COLD FRONT AFTER OSCAR DISSIPATES.  FOR ADDITIONAL FORECAST\r\nINFORMATION...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE METEO\r\nFRANCE MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 23.0N  38.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 25.5N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Oscar","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF OSCAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152012\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 05 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELITE IMAGES AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT OSCAR NO LONGER\r\nHAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE CONVECTION IS LINEAR AND IS LIMITED TO\r\nTHE AREA SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH. ON THIS BASIS...THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE REMNANTS OF OSCAR WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY.    \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 24.1N  37.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS OF OSCAR\r\n 12H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n1100 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012\r\n \r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED LONG ENOUGH IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nBAHAMAS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK\r\nESTIMATE. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCOLDEST CLOUD TOPS DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A BUILDING LOW-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE INCREASES THE NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHILE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PERSIST. THIS INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW SOUTHWARD DRIFT...180/01.\r\nAS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION A\r\nSLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS THROUGH THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE TRACK FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH DISSIPATION...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH IS NOT NEEDED FOR THOSE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 25.4N  72.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 25.1N  73.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 24.9N  73.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patty","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS\r\nSHEARED...CONVECTION IS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN EARLIER\r\nTODAY.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45\r\nKT...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT IS AT 35 KT.  WHILE THE SUBJECTIVE VALUES\r\nLOOK A BIT HIGH...GIVEN THE STEADY CONVECTION TODAY...IT SEEMS\r\nLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED SINCE THE 30-KT ASCAT PASS\r\nFROM LAST NIGHT.  THUS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY SET\r\nTO 35 KT...MAKING PATTY THE SIXTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON.  \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE ON BORROWED TIME AS THERE ARE A\r\nCOUPLE OF FACTORS COMING TOGETHER THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. \r\nFIRST...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO DUE TO A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nPERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  SECOND...A COLD FRONT\r\nIS LOCATED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND SOME OF\r\nTHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL LIKELY ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER. \r\nTHESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN\r\nBY TOMORROW...AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE PATTY TO SHEAR APART INTO A\r\nTROUGH.  THIS SCENARIO IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nFORECASTS...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INITIAL WINDS.  \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TODAY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE CENTER\r\nMAINTAINING VERTICAL COHERENCE IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT PATTY WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST BY\r\nTOMORROW AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nINITIALLY...THEN IS BLENDED NEAR THE LATEST CONSENSUS AT 24H. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY\r\nTHAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND\r\nTHEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 25.8N  72.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 25.4N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 24.9N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patty","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE TIGHT\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCOLDEST CLOUD TOPS...JUST INSIDE THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY...DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR. THIS SHEAR PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN CONSENSUS 00Z DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT\r\nESTIMATE OF T2.9/43 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nCONSERVATIVELY INCREASED TO 40 KT.\r\n\r\nRECENT SSMIS...TRMM...AND WINDSAT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE PATTY HAS\r\nREMAINED ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LITTLE\r\nMOVEMENT...OR PERHAPS A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP...IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN NORTHEASTERLY\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW AND BENEATH UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BY 36\r\nHOURS AND BEYOND...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE LOW-/MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASING AND\r\nFORCING PATTY IN A SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC. THE EXPECTED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL ALSO FORCE\r\nPATTY INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nSYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH THAT GETS ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD OR\r\nWESTWARD BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. SINCE PATTY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nEXPECTED...ADDITONAL FORECAST POINTS HAVE BEEN ADDED. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...\r\nAND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS...SINCE THOSE MODELS REFLECT A MORE\r\nROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nA FORTUITOUS 11/2031 UTC DROPSONDE REPORT RECEIVED FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ENROUTE TO THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN REGION INDICATED THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM 850-300 MB\r\nWAS MUCH LESS THAN THE 28-30 KT 850-200 MB SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE\r\nGFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL. THIS MIGHT EXPLAIN WHY PATTY HAS REMAINED\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED TODAY DESPITE WHAT OTHERWISE APPEARS TO BE RATHER\r\nHOSTILE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT NORTHWARD AND TO\r\nTHE EAST OF PATTY...WHICH ACTS TO DECREASE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nACROSS THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE\r\nCYCLONE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO WEAKEN THE\r\nSYSTEM AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE LGEM\r\nAND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...IT IS UNLIKELY\r\nTHAT PATTY COULD REACH THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL STORM...AND\r\nTHEREFORE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 25.9N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 25.8N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 25.7N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 25.5N  72.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 25.0N  73.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 24.0N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 23.0N  81.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patty","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PATTY CONTINUES TO\r\nGENERATE A LARGE MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...AN EARLIER\r\nSSMIS PASS AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER EXPOSED ABOUT 60 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE NEAREST\r\nDEEP CONVECTION AS A CONSEQUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY DECREASED TO 2.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE\r\nAGENCIES...AND A BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nLOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT.\r\n \r\nPATTY IS NOT LIKELY TO HANG ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MUCH\r\nLONGER.  AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE STORM DUE ITS PROXIMITY TO A FRONT.\r\nIN ADDITION...A BUILDING LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN EVEN STRONGER\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OVER PATTY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE FACTORS\r\nSHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING...AND PATTY IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED APART\r\nAND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24-36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A\r\nBIT LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY IS FARTHER SOUTH\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWEST...OR 200/03...DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CYCLONE BEING PUSHED\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD BY THE BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nMODELS THAT DISSIPATE THE STORM RELATIVELY SOON.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A BIT FASTER TOWARD\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 25.1N  72.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 24.9N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 24.6N  73.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 24.3N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 23.9N  74.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 23.0N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patty","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF PATTY REMAINS EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH SOME\r\nBANDING FEATURES FORMING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER THAN BEFORE...A\r\nBLEND OF THOSE VALUES STILL SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS A MARGINAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL BE IN\r\nTHE AREA LATER TODAY TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED DATA.  THE PERSISTENT\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE WINNING THE BATTLE WITH PATTY...\r\nAND THIS SHEAR SHOULD ONLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHUS...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SLOWLY SPIN DOWN AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nWINDS.  PATTY WILL PROBABLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\r\n36H DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STRONG SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF\r\nDRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY SINCE FORMATION...PRIMARILY\r\nDUE TO ITS VARYING DEPTHS OF CONVECTION.  LITTLE NET MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TODAY...AND AFTER THE SHEAR INCREASES TONIGHT...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BEGIN TO DOMINATE AND CAUSE A\r\nSHALLOWER PATTY TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE NHC TRACK IS\r\nADJUSTED A BIT TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY ON TO CAPTURE A RECENT DRIFT\r\nIN THAT DIRECTION...THEN IS BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST IN 36H.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 25.5N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 25.7N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 25.6N  71.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 24.5N  73.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 23.5N  75.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patty","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n500 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT\r\nPATTY HAD MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nSINCE THAT TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DECOUPLED FROM\r\nTHE WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR. BASED ON THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 30 KT AND PATTY IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nA SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS OR SOONER. \r\n \r\nPATTY HAS BEEN STATIONARY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME A\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS PATTY IS STEERED BY A\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH\r\nDISSIPATION...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 25.5N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 25.4N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 25.0N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 24.2N  74.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patty","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 12 2012\r\n \r\nDESPITE A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT UW-CIMSS AMSU-A\r\nESTIMATION.  PATTY...HOWEVER...IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN\r\nAND DISSIPATES IN 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nPATTY HAS MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...POSSIBLY AN ERRATIC\r\nDRIFT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  PATTY SHOULD...HOWEVER...BEGIN A\r\nGRADUAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE WEST ATLANTIC EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE\r\nTVCA MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 25.4N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 25.3N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 24.7N  73.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 23.9N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patty","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n500 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH PATTY WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KNOTS. SINCE THAT TIME...NIGHT-\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING\r\nELONGATED AND LOSING ORGANIZATION. THE CONVECTION IS RAPIDLY MOVING\r\nAWAY FROM THE CENTER. PATTY IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOST LIKELY...THE CYCLONE WILL DEGENERATE\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nPATTY HAS BEEN MEANDERING FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nHIGH WHICH IS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 25.5N  71.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 25.4N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 24.0N  74.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Patty","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF PATTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162012\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES AND SATELLITE DERIVED LOW-LEVEL WINDS INDICATE THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF PATTY HAS BECOME HIGHLY ELONGATED AND IT APPEARS THAT\r\nIT IS NO LONGER CLOSED. THEREFORE...PATTY DOES NOT QUALIFY AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE REMNANTS OF PATTY...WHICH ARE\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE BASE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ARE MOVING\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE UNTIL THE TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER OR NEAR THE CENTRAL\r\nBAHAMAS BY THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF PATTY PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 24.8N  72.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-12 23:30:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n730 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012\r\n \r\nA COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA HAS FORMED A CLOSED CIRCULATION...ALBEIT ONE WITH A\r\nLARGE AREA OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE SYSTEM NOW MEETS THE CRITERIA TO BE CONSIDERED A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 43 KT AND SMFR WINDS OF 35 KT NEAR ST. VINCENT...AND BASED ON\r\nTHESE DATA THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL.  MOST OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE EAST SIDE\r\nOF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO. THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR PERSISTING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE\r\nRELAXING A BIT AS THE UPPER-LOW SHEARS OUT AND LIFTS NORTHWARD.\r\nONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY...AS THE SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LOW DECREASES...THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RECENT FORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 320/8. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nTHEN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS SHOWN AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THERE IS A LARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN...AND HWRF/GFDL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING AHEAD OF\r\nA CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE\r\nECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN\r\nSOLUTION THAT FAILS TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AS QUICKLY. THE NHC\r\nTRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORWARD SPEED...BUT\r\nIS FASTER THAN A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2330Z 15.0N  63.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 16.2N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 18.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 19.6N  64.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 21.4N  65.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 25.0N  67.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 32.5N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 43.0N  57.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 12 2012\r\n\r\nRAFAEL HAS A RATHER DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nTHIS EVENING.  THE BROAD LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR.  LESS CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS OCCURRING TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO OBSERVATIONS OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT IT IS\r\nLIKELY THAT SUCH WINDS ARE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 325/9.  RAFAEL IS CURRENTLY\r\nSOUTHEAST OF A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATTY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD STEER RAFAEL GENERALLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH THE CENTER PASSING\r\nNEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BRIEFLY BUILD NORTH OF RAFAEL AT\r\nABOUT 48 HR...WHICH WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BREAK DOWN AS A POWERFUL\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TROUGH\r\nSHOULD RECURVE RAFAEL INTO THE WESTERLIES.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE ON THIS...THEY DIFFER ENOUGH ON THE DETAILS THAT THE GFS AND\r\nCANDIAN SHOW A MUCH FASTER FORWARD MOTION AFTER RECURVATURE THAN\r\nTHE ECMWF AND UKMET.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST IN SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES. \r\nOVERALL...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE OLD TRACK AND NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST 12 HR DUE TO\r\nCONTINUED SHEAR.  AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR FROM 24-48 HR...WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWING INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AGREE ON INCREASING SHEAR AFTER 48 HR.  DESPITE THIS...THE\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND SHIP MODELS FORECAST RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN INTO A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL RELY MORE ON THE FORECAST\r\nSHEAR AND SHOW ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT AFTER 48 HR.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION SHOULD BEGIN BY 120 HR AND LIKELY BE COMPLETE SHORTLY\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 15.4N  63.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.6N  63.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 18.4N  64.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 20.3N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 22.1N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 26.0N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 34.5N  63.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 44.5N  55.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n \r\nRAFAEL CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A LARGE CLOUD\r\nSHIELD...DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED EAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO PERSISTENT STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND\r\nCOVERAGE IN A BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE\r\nFLYING AT 5000 FT WERE 40 KT AND PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE BETWEEN 35-40\r\nKT...THOUGH SEVERAL OF THE HIGHER VALUES COULD BE RAIN\r\nCONTAMINATED.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...\r\nWITH THE LONG-TERM AVERAGE MOTION STILL TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR\r\n320/08.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED\r\nSLOWLY POLEWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A\r\nMID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH ATLANTIC CANADA.  BETWEEN\r\n36-72 HOURS...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS RAFAEL JOGGING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM.  BY DAY 3...A COMPLEX\r\nBUT PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHOULD CAUSE\r\nRAFAEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nACCELERATION.  WHILE THE CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS GENERALLY MINIMAL...THE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IS RATHER\r\nSUBSTANTIAL.  ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM IS THE GFS WHICH MAINTAINS\r\nA STRONGER REPRESENTATION OF RAFAEL THAT IS CAPTURED BY THE ABOVE-\r\nMENTIONED SHORTWAVE.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET...ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...HAVE WEAKER VERSIONS OF THE STORM THAT ARE STEERED MORE\r\nSLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD BY A WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM. \r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AS A RESULT OF SOME WEIGHT GIVEN TO THE ECMWF/UKMET\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS GREATER-THAN-NORMAL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAFAEL IS\r\nFORECAST TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE COLD LOW\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE SHEARS OUT.  THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD\r\nOF INTENSIFICATION FOR A DAY OR TWO...THOUGH THE ECMWF SHOWS\r\nENOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING TO PRECLUDE MUCH\r\nSTRENGTHENING. REGARDLESS OF THAT...ALL MODELS SHOW INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS AS WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE\r\nSHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AROUND THAT TIME. \r\nDESPITE THIS...HWRF...GFDL...AND SHIPS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nRAFAEL REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nINCREASED A BIT OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS INDICATED AT\r\nDAY 5 IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 15.7N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 17.0N  64.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 18.8N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 20.5N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 22.2N  66.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 26.4N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 35.8N  62.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 45.0N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL HAS BEGUN TO IMPROVE A\r\nLITTLE...WITH DEEP CONVECTION MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER\r\nAS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. DATA FROM THE\r\nLATEST AIRCRAFT MISSION SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS ARE NO HIGHER\r\nTHAN 35 KT...WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINING 1006 MB. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO BEGIN STRENGTHENING GRADUALLY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS INTENSIFICATION CONTINUING THROUGH 72 HOURS DESPITE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO MODERATE VALUES BY THAT TIME...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RAFAEL BECOMING A HURRICANE IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR INCREASES ABOVE 40\r\nKT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS...AND A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 330/08. EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE\r\nIS SOME SIZEABLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS SHOWS A DUE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION AS IT MAINTAINS THE UPPER-LOW WEST OF RAFAEL A\r\nLITTLE LONGER WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET WEAKEN THE LOW FASTER AND\r\nSHOW A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES\r\nIN BETWEEN...SHOWING A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT LEFT TURN ON DAY 2 AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nREBUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF RAFAEL. THE NHC FORECAST DURING THIS\r\nTIME REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE\r\nTRACK UNCERTAINTY GROWS LARGER. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER\r\nCOMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...\r\nSHOWING RAFAEL ACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO SHOWN BY THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF...WHOSE LARGE-SCALE FIELDS ARE DRIVEN BY THE GFS OUTPUT. ON\r\nTHE OTHER HAND BOTH THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW RAFAEL INTERACTING\r\nWITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND\r\nINDICATE A SLOWER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC FORECAST DURING\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5 REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF AND SLOWER THAN MULTI-\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...GIVEN THAT THE GFS APPEARS TO BE A LEFT OUTLIER\r\nCOMPARED TO EVEN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN. NEEDLESS TO SAY...\r\nCONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WITH THE 96-HOUR POSITIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MORE THAN\r\n800 MILES APART.\r\n \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS\r\nEXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 15.9N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 17.4N  64.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 19.2N  65.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 21.0N  66.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 22.6N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 28.0N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 38.0N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 45.0N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nRAFAEL HAS BEEN REFORMING CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB\r\nAND A PEAK 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 56 KT. BASED ON THAT DATA\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE...WITH A\r\nLARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS NOTED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION AND A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE NOTED TO THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT STEADY STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO\r\n3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NHC FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE OBSERVED\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINCREASE MARKEDLY AS RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AS THE CYCLONE UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH\r\nSHOULD BE COMPLETE BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nWITH THE RECENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 015/10 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND\r\nADDITIONAL JUMPS IN THE CENTER LOCATION ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT\r\nFEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES. WHILE THE OVERALL TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER\r\nHAS RESULTED IN AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BY\r\nABOUT A DEGREE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE FIRST 12\r\nHOURS OR SO AND THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AS\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nLARGE ALONG-TRACK SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...DUE TO DETAIL\r\nDIFFERENCES IN HOW RAFAEL INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. GIVEN THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY...THE\r\nONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 WAS AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NEW MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE EVELOPE AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nTHROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS\r\nEXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 17.3N  63.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 18.7N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 20.9N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 22.6N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 24.4N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 31.5N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 43.0N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 50.5N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF\r\nRAFAEL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THESE REMAIN RATHER LOOSELY ORGANIZED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB BASED ON DATA\r\nFROM ST. MARTIN...WHICH IS UNCHANGED FROM THE LAST HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT FIX.  BASED ON THESE DATA AND A 45 KT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nFROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS JUMPED AROUND SOME DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL MOTION IS NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.  RAFAEL\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS AS A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  AFTER THAT...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED\r\nSURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nINTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL BREAK THE RIDGE AND ALLOW\r\nRAFAEL TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  WHILE ALL THE MODELS AGREE\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS...\r\nESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO THE FORWARD SPEED AFTER RECURVATURE.  THE\r\nECMWF...WHICH HAS THE WEAKEST DEPICTION OF THE STORM...REMAINS THE\r\nSLOWEST AND FARTHEST SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS AND THE\r\nCANADIAN MODELS...WHICH FORECAST A MUCH STRONGER RAFAEL...REMAIN\r\nTHE FASTEST AND MOST NORTHERLY.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN COMPROMISING BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IT\r\nLIES NEAR...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN...THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nRAFAEL IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...RAFAEL SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR WHICH SHOULD HALT\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND START A WEAKENING TREND.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HR...AND THIS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER IF\r\nTHE FASTER AND MORE NORTHERLY MOTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS\r\nOCCURS.\r\n \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS\r\nEXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 18.4N  63.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 19.9N  64.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 21.6N  65.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 23.4N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 25.8N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 33.5N  62.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 44.5N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 50.0N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE\r\nRAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN ALSO INDICATES A\r\nNARROW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS GETTING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. FURTHERMORE...INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS EXPANDED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...WHICH IS AN INDICATION THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS\r\nLESSENED. HOWEVER...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STILL ELONGATED IN A \r\nNORTH-SOUTH CONFIGURATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AT 45 KT...GIVEN THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL\r\nAND THE ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN STEADY AT T3.1/47 KT\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/11 KT. A FAIR PRESENTATION IN THE\r\nREFLECTIVITY AND DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM SAN JUAN SUGGEST THAT\r\nRAFAEL HAS STARTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS A DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE AND GRADUALLY SLIDES\r\nEASTWARD. AFTER THAT...A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND AN\r\nASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 48 HOURS. THESE FEATURES ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAFAEL...AND ALLOW\r\nCYCLONE TO RECURVE INTO THE HIGH-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING SCENARIO...\r\nEXCEPT FOR SLIGHT SPEED DIFFERENCES. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE A\r\nSLIGHT OUTLIER AFTER 72 HOURS...AND IS THE RIGHTMOST OF ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS DUE ITS MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL REMAINS IN A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE MAY BRIEF PERIODS WHERE THE SHEAR ABATES...SUCH AS\r\nHAS BEEN HAPPENING SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THAT WILL ALLOW\r\nFOR RAFAEL TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTHE STRENGTHENING TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR INCREASES SHARPLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 120 HR...IF\r\nNOT SOONER...WHEN THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...SINCE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS\r\nEXTEND WELL EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 19.4N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 20.7N  64.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 22.5N  65.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 24.1N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 27.1N  65.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 36.2N  60.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 46.1N  52.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 50.4N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF RAFAEL IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING.  THE\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION WITH SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS EVIDENT OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION.  A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 997 MB...WHICH IS SEVERAL MILLIBARS LOWER THAN 12 HOURS AGO.  \r\nTHE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY SAMPLING THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nSTORM. FOR THE FIRST TIME...STRONG WINDS WERE MEASURED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER ON A PASS EARLIER THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 57 KT...AND\r\nRAIN CORRECTED SFMR VALUES OF AROUND 45 KT.  BASED OF THIS\r\nDATA...AND THE ASSUMPTION THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.  NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS RAFAEL TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\r\nSOME WEAKENING.  RAFAEL WILL LIKELY BEGIN ITS TRANSITION TO AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD BE COMPLETE WITHIN 96\r\nHOURS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10 KT. RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND AN\r\nASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nAND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO BEGIN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD IN THE STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH\r\nSLOWER THAN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AS IT KEEPS RAFAEL WEAKER AND\r\nSHALLOWER.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...BUT LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER GFS/GFDL SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 20.0N  64.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 21.5N  65.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 23.2N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 25.5N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 29.1N  64.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 38.7N  58.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 48.5N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  19/1200Z 50.5N  40.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER IMPROVING DURING THE MORNING...THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION\r\nOF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON.  SHORTLY AFTER \r\nTHE RELEASE OF THE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 64 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 45 TO 50 KT.  BASED ON THESE \r\nDATA AND 1800 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50\r\nKT.  RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE STILL CALLS FROM RAFAEL TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  GIVEN THE LACK OF A TIGHT INNER CORE AND THE\r\nMARGINAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN...HOWEVER...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE THAT\r\nRAFAEL WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS\r\nCLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND TO THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/9 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  RAFAEL SHOULD\r\nMOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BY TUESDAY...A\r\nSTRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF THE FRONT/TROUGH.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS OVERALL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST RAFAEL WILL GAIN LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE 1200 UTC GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SLOWER\r\nECMWF SOLUTION AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.  THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK\r\nAFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 20.7N  64.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 21.8N  65.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 23.5N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 26.0N  65.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 29.3N  64.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 39.5N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 48.5N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  19/1800Z 49.0N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MORE\r\nDISTINCT CURVED BAND FEATURES NOTED TO THE NORTHWEST...NORTH...\r\nNORTHEAST...AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTERS MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 71 KT AND AN\r\nSFMR SURFACE WIND OF 59 KT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. \r\nCORRECTING FOR RAINFALL REDUCES THIS SFMR VALUE TO 54 KT...BUT IT\r\nIS PRESUMED THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT.  \r\n\r\nRAFAEL HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nAND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ITS CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND\r\nTHE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE\r\nTHAT RAFAEL COULD STRENGTHEN SOME MORE IN THE SHORT TERM.  IN 2-3\r\nDAYS...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 KT\r\nAS A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHES THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  BY 96 HOURS...GLOBAL\r\nMODEL OUTPUT SHOWS CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 330/9...AND THE FORECAST\r\nSTEERING SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  RAFAEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES BETWEEN A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  BY LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED PREDICTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OVER THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS OR SO...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A SUBSTANTIALLY SLOWER MOTION\r\nTHAN MOST OF THE OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nLATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 21.6N  64.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 22.8N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 24.8N  65.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 27.5N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 31.5N  62.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 40.5N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 48.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/0000Z 49.0N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAFAEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND\r\nA LARGE CDO FEATURE HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB...T3.5/55 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES ARE T3.4/53 KT...BUT WITH RAW DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS OF T4.3/72 KT. ALTHOUGH IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT\r\nRAFAEL COULD ALREADY BE A HURRICANE BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THIS\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nINVESTIGATING RAFAEL AROUND 1200 UTC...AND DATA FROM THAT MISSION\r\nWILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09 KT. THERE REMAINS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING...\r\nAND THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE 72\r\nHOUR FORECAST PERIOD. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF\r\nTHE U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY...RAFAEL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nACCELERATE. AFTER 72 HOURS...THERE IS GREATER SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE AS SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC. DESPITE THESE SPEED DIFFERENCES...THE MODELS ARE\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THEN EXTRATROPICAL RAFAEL TURNING EASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE COLD WATERS OF THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AND POSSIBLY BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE 21 KT OF SHEAR ASSESSED BY THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL...\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND\r\nIMPROVE...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST WHERE THE OUTFLOW IS BEING\r\nENHANCED BY A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ALONG 40W\r\nLONGITUDE.  THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nWILL INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...SO AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM. BY DAYS 2-3...\r\nHOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30 KT AS\r\nTHE U.S. DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES RAFAEL...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING. BY DAY 4...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING\r\nRAFAEL TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS\r\nWITH A COLD FRONT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nSPECIAL THANKS TO THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS WHO PULLED\r\nDOUBLE DUTY YESTERDAY BY HELPING LOCATE A LIGHT AIRCRAFT AND ITS\r\nPASSENGERS THAT WENT DOWN NEAR THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. WELL DONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 22.5N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 23.9N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 26.3N  65.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 29.6N  63.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 33.8N  60.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 42.6N  50.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 48.2N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/0600Z 49.3N  24.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 15 2012\r\n \r\nRAFAEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE\r\nCENTER EMBEDDED IN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO HINT OF AN EYE IN EARLY MORNING VISIBLE\r\nSATELITE IMAGERY...BUT EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED A RAGGED\r\nBANDING EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RAFAEL IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\nTHE PLANE MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 81 AND 75 KT\r\nDURING PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH MAXIMUM\r\nCORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF 55-57 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.  THE OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT\r\nRESTRICTED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM DUE TO MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THAT TIME. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70\r\nKT WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...RAFAEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATER AND THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE.  THIS SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING...BUT RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A\r\nPOWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 KT. THE STORM SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD VERY SOON AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN\r\nACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THIS\r\nTROUGH LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH...RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD\r\nIN A FEW DAYS IN MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND TRACK OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 23.0N  65.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 24.5N  65.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 27.4N  64.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 30.9N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 35.4N  59.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 43.5N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 47.0N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/1200Z 47.0N  20.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rafael","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF RAFAEL HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWEST\r\nTO NORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ONCE AGAIN\r\nSUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF IMPROVED\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT SFMR SURFACE \r\nWIND MEASUREMENTS...RAFAEL REMAINS A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.  NOAA AND\r\nU.S. AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE EN ROUTE TO THE STORM\r\nAND SHOULD PROVIDE VALUABLE DATA THIS EVENING.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE SHEAR...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR\r\nRAFAEL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.  HOWEVER... \r\nTHE OPPORTUNITY FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE\r\nLESSENING AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND RAFAEL WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER DECREASING SSTS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAFAEL WILL BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STATUS WITHIN 48 HOURS...AS IT STARTS TO INTERACT\r\nWITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST...THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND ATLANTIC\r\nCANADA.  THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nCOMPLETE WITHIN 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT RAFAEL HAS MADE THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWARD TURN.  THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN EASTWARD IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS\r\nIT IS STEERED BY MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE...AND VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 24.1N  65.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 26.1N  65.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 29.4N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 33.7N  61.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 39.0N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 47.0N  41.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 48.0N  27.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/1800Z 48.0N  25.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rafael","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 15 2012\r\n\r\nAFTER CHANGING LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...RAFAEL HAS UNDERGONE A\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING EPISODE THIS EVENING.  FLIGHT-LEVEL...\r\nSFMR...AND DROPSONDE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO ABOUT 75 KT.  THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY\r\nVIGOROUS CONVECTION AS EVIDENCED BY ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AND\r\nREPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS OF SEVERE TURBULENCE\r\nNEAR THE CORE.  RAFAEL CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT WELL-DEFINED UPPER-\r\nLEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF ITS\r\nCIRCULATION...EVEN IN THE PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR. \r\nSOME ADDITIONAL SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ON\r\nTUESDAY...AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 35 KT IN 24 HOURS...AND THIS...ALONG\r\nWITH COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING TO\r\nCOMMENCE BY WEDNESDAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  A STRONG COLD\r\nFRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH RAFAEL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LIKELY TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS SHORTLY\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR ABOUT 010/10.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE.  A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS APPROACHING\r\nRAFAEL...AND THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS\r\nTROUGH SHOULD CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...POST-TROPICAL\r\nRAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN\r\nTHE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN OVER THE NORTHEAST\r\nATLANTIC AS IT INTERACTS WITH...AND ABSORBS...ANOTHER LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THAT REGION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE ONE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 25.1N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 27.6N  64.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 31.6N  62.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 36.4N  59.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 41.2N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 48.0N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 48.5N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/0000Z 49.5N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rafael","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS OCCURRED\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THERE IS ONE NOTICEABLE CHANGE...\r\nHOWEVER...AND THAT IS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHIFTED INTO\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN\r\nTHE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT...\r\nT4.0/65 KT...AND ADT CI OF T4.8/85 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS...RESPECTIVELY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF MORE THAN 25 KT.\r\n\r\nRAFAEL IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED...OR 015/14 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK AND RATIONALE\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FEW ADVISORIES. RAFAEL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST ALONG 33-34N LATITUDE.\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z FROM BERMUDA INDICATED 24-HOUR HEIGHT FALLS\r\nOF 40-60 METERS FROM 700-400 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE RIDGE IS\r\nERODING AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST APPROACHES RAFAEL LATER\r\nTODAY...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nPASS JUST EAST OF BERMUDA BY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY 48\r\nHOURS...RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND MERGE\r\nWITH A STRONG COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTRANSITION INTO A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT WILL\r\nTHEN MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC AND WELL AWAY FROM\r\nCANADA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nDUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE MERGES\r\nWITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND MOVES OVER SUB-20C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AND ABUNDANCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE\r\nSTRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING...WHICH WILL KEEP RAFAEL AS A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 26.6N  65.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 29.4N  63.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 33.8N  61.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 38.8N  56.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 43.3N  49.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 49.7N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 49.3N  28.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/0600Z 46.5N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rafael","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nDESPITE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...RAFAEL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES WITH A SOLID CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA SHOW THE PRESSURE FELL TO 970 MB A\r\nFEW HOURS AGO...WITH THE MOST RECENT MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n90 KT AND SFMR DATA OF 70-75 KT.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO\r\n80 KT AS A BLEND OF THESE DATA.  WEAKENING SHOULD START FAIRLY SOON\r\nWITH STRONG SHEAR APPROACHING THE CYCLONE.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nKEEPS THE INTENSITY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...BUT\r\nIT IS HARD TO BELIEVE RAFAEL WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY WITH\r\nPREDICTED SHEAR VALUES OF AROUND 40 KT.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE\r\nINITIAL WINDS.  \r\n\r\nRAFAEL IS MOVING A BIT FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/21. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE HURRICANE\r\nPASSING TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA TONIGHT...THEN MOVING FASTER TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A\r\nRIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THERE ARE SOME MINOR SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES IN HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE MOVES...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nLIES ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE\r\nINTERPOLATED PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS LIKELY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS DUE TO\r\nVERY COLD WATER AND INTERACTION WITH A COLD FRONT.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 28.6N  64.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 31.7N  62.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 36.5N  59.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 41.5N  53.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 45.5N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 50.5N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/1200Z 44.0N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rafael","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY TRANSITIONED FROM A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST TO AN EYE PATTERN...WITH A RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nPASS SHOWING A SOLID INNER CORE.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING...BUT THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS\r\nREPORTED THAT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAD COME DOWN A BIT\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE PLANE DATA SUGGEST AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF ABOUT 75 KT...WITH A LITTLE HIGHER UNCERTAINTY THAN\r\nAVERAGE GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND.  A NOAA AIRCRAFT WILL BE\r\nIN THE AREA THIS EVENING FOR ANOTHER LOOK AT THE INTENSITY. \r\nHOWEVER...SLOW WEAKENING SEEMS LIKE THE BEST BET DUE TO GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLING WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE LGEM MODEL BUT A BIT BELOW\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGESTS EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION BETWEEN 24-36H DUE TO INTERACTION OF RAFAEL WITH A COLD\r\nFRONT AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW THAT RAFAEL HAS RECENTLY BEEN MOVING A BIT LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 020/23. \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO PREDICTED STEERING FLOW WITH THE\r\nHURRICANE MOVING BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAFAEL TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AND TO MOVE FASTER.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND EVEN THE SPEED\r\nDIFFERENCES ARE LESS NOTICEABLE THAN ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nCYCLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT STILL LIES ON THE SPEEDIER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO.  AFTERWARD...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL WILL COMPLETE A LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nLOOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 30.6N  63.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 34.0N  61.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 38.8N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 43.1N  50.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 46.6N  40.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 52.5N  29.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 50.5N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/1800Z 44.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rafael","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nNOAA HURRICANE HUNTER OBSERVATIONS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED\r\nTHAT RAFAEL WAS MORE OR LESS MAINTINING ITS INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CYCLONE WAS BECOMING TILTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nTILT OF THE VORTEX SUGGESTS THAT WEAKENING WILL SOON OCCUR.  COOLER\r\nWATERS LIE AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD ALSO INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE LATEST GFS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS RAFAEL BECOMING\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE BY 36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 24 HOURS...BASED ON THE PRESUMPTION\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC\r\nSOURCES.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nNOW 030/25.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS BASICALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  RAFAEL OR ITS POST-TROPICAL\r\nCOUNTERPART SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN THE FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nROTATE CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE LOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS\r\nPREDICTION...AS WELL AS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 32.4N  62.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 36.2N  59.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 40.9N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 44.9N  46.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 48.5N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 53.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 49.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/0000Z 43.0N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rafael","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012\r\n \r\nRAFAEL IS STARTING TO TAKE ON SOME EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\nMOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH AN\r\nINTRUSION OF DRIER AIR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nONLY A SLIGHT WEAKENING HAS PROBABLY OCCURRED SINCE THE LAST\r\nAIRCRAFT MISSION...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 70 KT.\r\nWITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS...SOME DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24H AND SHOULD\r\nCOMPLETE THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF RAFAEL. HOWEVER...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS KEEP A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH\r\nTHE AID OF BAROCLINIC FORCING...SO THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON\r\nTHESE MODELS AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO PICK UP SPEED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 030/29. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT \r\nON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. IN A FEW\r\nDAYS...POST-TROPICAL RAFAEL SHOULD MOVE IN A LARGE CYCLONIC LOOP\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AS IT WHIPS AROUND A DEVELOPING LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT IT WILL REMAIN\r\nTHE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...AND THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO TRACK THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW CENTER THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 35.2N  60.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 38.8N  57.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 43.0N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 46.5N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 49.0N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 54.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 50.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/0600Z 43.0N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rafael","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 17 2012\r\n \r\nRAFAEL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL CLOSE\r\nTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nSHIFTING TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  RAFAEL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCOMPLETE THE TRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW LATER TODAY. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE GRADUALLY DECREASED AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE REDUCED TO 65 KT.  GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD....HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nREMAIN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL IS RACING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 30 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nSHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AND THEN COMPLETE A\r\nCYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE NHC TRACK IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  GUIDANCE FROM THE\r\nOCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WAS HELPFUL FOR BOTH THE TRACK AND WIND\r\nRADII FORECASTS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 37.5N  59.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 41.0N  54.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 44.8N  45.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 48.0N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 51.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 54.0N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 47.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1200Z 43.5N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Rafael","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172012\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 17 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nRAFAEL THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBECOME THAT OF AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  EARLIER ASCAT\r\nDATA SHOWED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IMPINGING ON THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT IS\r\nANALYZED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...RAFAEL\r\nHAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE ASCAT DATA INDICATED A LARGE AREA\r\nOF 50-60 KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT. SOME\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nBUT THE LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND POWERFUL SYSTEM OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nRAFAEL HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEN\r\nCOMPLETE A CYCLONIC LOOP AROUND A DEEP-LAYER LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 40.2N  56.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 42.9N  50.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 46.0N  41.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 49.0N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 52.0N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 54.0N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 47.6N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1800Z 43.0N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS ACQUIRED\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\nTHE EXACT CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT...BUT THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS\r\nINCREASED MARKEDLY SINCE OVERNIGHT.  REFINEMENTS TO THE POSITION\r\nCOULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ONCE THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nPLANE INVESTIGATES THE SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 230/4 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS\r\nACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nAFTER 24 HOURS...A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CUBA\r\nSHOULD PULL THE DEPRESSION NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD JAMAICA AND\r\nEASTERN CUBA.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW VARYING SCENARIOS BY\r\nTHE END OF THE WEEK...THEY ALL AGREE ON A PERSISTENT NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH DAY 5.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...AT LEAST DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  IN\r\nFACT...THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL STRENGTHEN\r\nBY AT LEAST 25 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BASED ON THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nFAIRLY QUICK STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD BE ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A HURRICANE AS IT IS\r\nAPPROACHING JAMAICA.  AFTER 48 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY...AND NEARLY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL TAKE ON MORE HYBRID\r\nCHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD TO THE NORTH AND\r\nITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL STORM\r\nBY DAY 5. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 13.5N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 13.7N  78.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 14.3N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 15.7N  77.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 17.4N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 20.5N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND OVER CUBA\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 24.5N  74.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  27/1200Z 27.0N  73.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND A BAND OF SURFACE WINDS NEAR\r\n35 KT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...SO THE SYSTEM\r\nIS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SHEAR...AND THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM\r\nWATERS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS COULD BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE...HOWEVER...AS THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL REGION OF THE STORM IS\r\nCHARACTERIZED BY A FAIRLY FLAT PRESSURE FIELD...BUT THE CENTER\r\nAPPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  HOWEVER...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TAKEN\r\nPLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nTO BEGIN MOVING NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD SOON.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT\r\nNOT AS FAR WEST AS THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST.  THIS IS ONLY A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 12.5N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 13.6N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 14.9N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 16.4N  77.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 18.2N  77.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 25.0N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 27.5N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2012\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT INTO SANDY AROUND 20Z...THE EARLIER\r\nAMORPHOUS MASS OF CONVECTION EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER HAS\r\nBECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST FEATURE APPEARS TO BE FORMING. IN ADDITION...INNER-CORE\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE CENTER...\r\nWITH OUTER BANDING FEATURES ALSO DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS EXPANDED AND IMPROVED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHWEST WHERE IT HAD BEEN\r\nRESTRICTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT\r\nIS BASED ON A BLEND OF EARLIER SFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF\r\n42 KT AND 38 KT AROUND 20Z...AND THE RECENT INCREASE IN INNER-CORE\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY. UPPER-AIR DATA AT\r\n23/00Z INDICATED THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF SANDY FROM\r\nPUERTO RICO NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HAVE NOT CHANGED\r\nOVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS SUGGESTS...AT LEAST IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...THAT LITTLE POLEWARD MOTION IS LIKELY. BY 12-24 HOURS AND\r\nCONTINUING THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION TOWARD JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST AND WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT\r\nCURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...HOWEVER...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE\r\nNORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF TAKING SANDY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD CLOSER TO\r\nTHE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST...WHEREAS THE GFS...HWRF...GFDL...AND\r\nOTHER LESS RELIABLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.\r\nGIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE ECMWF MODEL...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND\r\nLIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TVCA AND TV15 CONSENSUS MODELS...AND\r\nTHE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n\r\nREMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WARM WATERS OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA IS NEVER A GOOD SIGN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.\r\nTHE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL IS INDICATING THAT SANDY SHOULD REMAIN IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR LESS THAN 5 KT...MID-LEVEL\r\nMOISTURE GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT...OVER SSTS OF 29-30C...AND OVER\r\nUPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES GREATER THAN 70 UNITS FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS ARE GENERALLY\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR...AND THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nREFLECTS THIS WITH A 64 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY\r\nINCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN\r\nTHE INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NOW FORECASTS\r\nSANDY TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES\r\nJAMAICA. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH JAMAICA AND CUBA... \r\nCOMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 120 HOURS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINTERACT WITH A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT COULD INDUCE\r\nTRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ICON...IV15...IVCN\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 12.7N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 13.6N  78.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.8N  77.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 16.6N  77.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 18.5N  77.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND OVER JAMAICA\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 22.7N  75.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 25.7N  75.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 28.2N  73.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n \r\nBANDS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO\r\nBE VERY LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE DURING\r\nTHE PAST 12-18 HOURS...AS AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT\r\nSANDY STILL HAS A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE T2.5...AND THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD\r\nPROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM.\r\n\r\nSANDY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A FASTER NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION BEGINNING TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY\r\nWEAKENS.  THE CENTER OF SANDY SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER\r\nJAMAICA ON WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. \r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 96 HOURS WITH\r\nA TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THERE IS\r\nSIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF ALONG THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE HWRF ALONG THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE.  THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND THE FLORIDA STATE ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW SHEAR...WARM WATERS...\r\nAND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT \r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  IN FACT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS BRING \r\nSANDY TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS AND SO DOES\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST.  AFTER SANDY CROSSES EASTERN CUBA...THE \r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY...HOWEVER THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A DEEPENING CYCLONE...POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING.  THE NHC FORECAST STILL INDICATES THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMING SUBTROPICAL LATE IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME\r\nINDICATIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT SANDY COULD BE TRANSITIONING \r\nTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 13.3N  78.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 14.1N  78.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 15.6N  77.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 17.6N  77.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 19.6N  77.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 24.0N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 26.8N  74.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 30.0N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND FEATURE EVIDENT OVER THE\r\nEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  USING A BLEND OF\r\nSFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS...THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS WELL\r\nDEFINED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CYCLONE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.  GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND HIGH OCEANIC\r\nHEAT CONTENT...SANDY IS LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE IN 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.  THE INTERACTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF SANDY WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN CUBA\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT WHICH SHOULD\r\nLIMIT RE-INTENSIFICATION.  AROUND DAY 5...THE GFS OUTPUT SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT SANDY WILL BE DERIVING ENERGY FROM BAROCLINIC SOURCES...AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL BY THAT TIME. \r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...OR ABOUT\r\n020/4.  AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  IN AROUND 2-3\r\nDAYS...THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DUE TO THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE WEST OF SANDY.  THIS\r\nIS SHOWN MOST PROMINENTLY IN THE 0600 UTC GFS RUN...WHICH HAS\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS SOLUTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE 48 TO 72\r\nHOUR TIME FRAME.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL TRACK\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nPREDICTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 13.8N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 14.9N  77.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 16.9N  77.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 18.9N  77.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 21.4N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON NORTH COAST OF CUBA\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 25.6N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 28.5N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 31.0N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE STORM.  THE CENTER OF SANDY IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST FEATURE...WHICH IS INDICATIVE OF A BIT OF WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nIS EXPECTED TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH\r\nLAND INTERACTION BEING THE PRIMARY IMPEDIMENT.  BY 72 HOURS...\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 30\r\nKT AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE DERIVING SOME ENERGY FROM\r\nBAROCLINIC SOURCES AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POST-TROPICAL\r\nSTATUS AT DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nOR 020/5.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FORECAST.  AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY\r\nCONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN 2-3 DAYS...A SHARP\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO WEST OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE\r\nSTORM ON A NORTHWARD TRACK...NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.  LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA\r\nAND THE KEYS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 14.3N  77.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 15.7N  77.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 17.9N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 20.3N  76.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 22.8N  76.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 26.3N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 29.5N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 32.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW\r\nTHAT SANDY IS STRENGTHENING.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 850-MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES NEAR 50\r\nKT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 989 MB.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO\r\nREPORTED THAT A RAGGED EYE WAS FORMING.\r\n\r\nSANDY IS NOW MOVING FASTER WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/9.  THE\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED\r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH AN\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  AFTER 72 HR...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...WITH A TIGHT CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE THROUGH 72 HR\r\nAND SOME SPREAD THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nOVER THE CARIBBEAN...SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MAKING SANDY A HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE THE CENTER REACHES JAMAICA AND CUBA.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nBECOMES MUCH MORE COMPLEX AFTER THE CYCLONE EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA. \r\nWHILE ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW STRONG SHEAR OVER\r\nSANDY...THEY ALL ALSO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE AND AN INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD.  THIS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE DUE TO BARCLINIC ENERGY FROM INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL LOSE\r\nSOME OF ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PROCESS.  THAT BEING\r\nSAID...NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE ACTUALLY BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING A 60-KT\r\nINTENSITY AFTER 36 HR AND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120\r\nHR.  HOWEVER...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE\r\nINTENSITY AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND EXPANDING WIND RADII SUGGEST THAT A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA\r\nAND THE KEYS EARLY WEDNESDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 15.2N  77.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 16.7N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 19.0N  76.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 21.7N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 24.3N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 27.0N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 30.5N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 33.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ABOUT \r\n4 HOURS AGO INDICATED 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KT AND\r\nSFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 MB. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWITH CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -90C HAVE ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED\r\nTHE CENTER OF SANDY AND NOAA BUOY 42058 RECENTLY REPORTED A\r\nSUSTAINED WIND OF 49 KT WITH A GUST TO 64 KT MORE THAN 160 N MI\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 60 KT.\r\n \r\nSANDY IS MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH NOW...OR 010/12 KT. THE\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH\r\n48-72 HOURS. SANDY SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS OR MERGES WITH A POTENT MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH THAT IS SLIDING EASTWARD. AFTER 72 HR...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND DIGGING TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTH AND WEST AFTER 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCA AND TV15...AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UP UNTIL SANDY MAKES LANDFALL ON\r\nJAMAICA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...LAND INTERACTION WITH\r\nJAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA...COMBINED WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\nHOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF WEAKENING THAT TYPICALLY OCCURS UNDER SUCH\r\nNEGATIVE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG\r\nBAROCLINIC INTERACTION/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN SHOWING A 60-KT INTENSITY AFTER 36 HOURS\r\nAND THE CYCLONE BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HOURS.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE AFTER 48-72 HOURS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE AMOUNT OF BAROCLINIC INTERACTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 16.3N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 17.9N  76.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR JAMAICA\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 20.6N  76.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND EASTERN CUBA\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 23.3N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 25.7N  76.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 28.2N  76.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 31.0N  73.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 33.4N  70.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS\r\nREACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED A PEAK\r\n700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 86 KT...AND BLENDING THAT WITH THE PEAK\r\nSFMR WINDS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT. THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE HAS ALSO FALLEN TO 973 MB BASED ON DATA FROM THE PLANE.\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION UNTIL\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES NEAR OR OVER EASTERN JAMAICA...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING AT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nADDITIONAL LAND INTERACTION WITH EASTERN CUBA AND STRUCTURAL\r\nCHANGES DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAKE THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. INCREASING SHEAR SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION VIA LATENT HEAT\r\nRELEASE...BUT THIS COULD BE COMPENSATED FOR BY BAROCLINIC\r\nPROCESSES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED AT 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...SHOWING SANDY BECOMING A\r\nPOWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 015/11. THE SHORT-TERM TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AS SANDY\r\nSHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nITS WEST. LATE IN THE PERIOD...THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN HOW MUCH SANDY INTERACTS WITH\r\nANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE\r\nECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE INTERACTION AND A TRACK\r\nFARTHER WEST...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS SANDY TURNING EAST AND MISSING\r\nTHE TROUGH. OVERALL MORE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARD\r\nSHOWING MORE INTERACTION WITH THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD. GIVEN THIS TREND...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE\r\nTVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nUNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LATEST NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED\r\nFOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...AND THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA\r\nCOAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 17.1N  76.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 19.1N  76.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 21.9N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 24.4N  76.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 26.3N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 28.7N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 32.0N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 35.5N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF SANDY MADE LANDFALL OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN JAMAICA AROUND 1900 UTC. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nDEGRADATION TO THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE LANDFALL...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 MB IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT OBSERVATION OF\r\n972 MB AT KINGSTON WITH 38 KT OF WIND. ASIDE FROM LAND\r\nINTERACTION...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SANDY TO AT LEAST\r\nMAINTAIN INTENSITY UNTIL IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CUBA...WHERE SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE HURRICANE AND GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nCYCLONE INTENSIFYING OVER THE BAHAMAS AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SANDY\r\nREGAINING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ONLY\r\nA LITTLE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS SANDY IS MAINTAINED AS A STRONG\r\nCYCLONE WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM BAROCLINIC PROCESSES\r\nTHROUGH DAY 5...WHEN POST-TROPICAL STATUS IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12...AS SANDY IS MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nINTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A\r\nLITTLE FASTER IN THE SHORT TERM AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\nON DAY 2...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED ARE SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AFTER THAT TIME...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A LARGER UPPER-TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE THERE IS STILL QUITE A\r\nBIT OF EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE GFS\r\nHAS TRENDED TOWARD THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN BY THE ECMWF OF\r\nMORE INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. WHILE THE GFS TRACK HAS SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF HAS ALSO SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS\r\nCYCLE. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AS WELL...AND\r\nLIES ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND\r\nTHE FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nLONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY HIGH...AND IT IS TOO EARLY\r\nTO DETERMINE SPECIFIC IMPACTS FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF\r\nFLORIDA.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED\r\nFOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 18.3N  76.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 20.3N  76.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 23.5N  76.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 25.8N  76.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 27.3N  77.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 30.0N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 33.5N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 37.0N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-10-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nCUBAN RADAR DATA AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS EVENING.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN RAPIDLY TO 954 MB...\r\nAND A 20-25 N MI WIDE EYE HAS DEVELOPED.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED\r\n700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE\r\nESTIMATES OF 75-80 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF THESE DATA...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  IT SHOULD\r\nBE NOTED THAT SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS...ARE\r\nAT OR ABOVE 100 KT.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SANDY IS LIKELY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN FURTHER BEFORE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/11.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST SANDY TO MOVE AROUND AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE\r\nLOW...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A NORTHWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR OR SO\r\nFOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  FROM 48-96 HR...A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD\r\nSTEER THE MERGED SYSTEM GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD.  THE GUIDANCE\r\nBECOMES DIVERGENT AFTER 96 HR...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL/NOGAPS TURNING\r\nTHE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE GFS/HWRF SHOWING A\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS IS IN PART\r\nDUE TO A LARGE CHANGE IN THE GFS FORECAST AFTER 72 HR.  THUS...THE\r\nNEW FORECAST WILL SHIFTED ONLY A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THIS\r\nTIME...AND IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  HOWEVER...\r\nIT REMAINS EAST OF THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR SANDY TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WHILE CROSSING CUBA.  WHEN\r\nTHE CENTER EMERGES NORTH OF CUBA...IT IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PROVIDE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nDIVERGENCE AND BAROCLINIC ENERGY.  WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW SANDY TO\r\nSTAY AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE WIND\r\nFIELD WILL SPREAD OUT AND THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE SOME OF ITS\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTER IN THE PROCESS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 24 HR.  THE FORECAST WILL\r\nSTILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 120 HR...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 19.4N  76.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 21.6N  76.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 24.4N  76.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 26.3N  76.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 27.6N  77.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 30.5N  74.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 33.5N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 37.0N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-10-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012\r\n \r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING...SANDY MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF SANTIAGO DE\r\nCUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. CUBAN RADAR DATA AND\r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED\r\nTHAT SANDY HAD A WELL-DEFINED 20-24 N MI DIAMETER EYE WHEN IT MADE\r\nLANDFALL. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 117 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE ESTIMATES OF 91-92 KT. A\r\nBLEND OF THESE DATA YIELDS A SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE OF 99 KT...JUST\r\nBELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS. THE MAIN REASON WHY SANDY WAS HELD\r\nJUST BELOW MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WAS DUE TO THE SUSTAINED 68-KT\r\nWIND AND GUST TO 99 KT THAT OCCURRED AROUND 0517Z. HOWEVER...\r\nSTRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE OCCURRED LATER WHEN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE EYEWALL MOVED ONSHORE...WHICH IS THE QUADRANT WHERE\r\nTHE 117-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND WAS OBSERVED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n90 KT IS BASED ON WIND DECAY MODELS FOR HURRICANES OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/16 KT. AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST VERY EARLY THIS MORNING...SANDY APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nRESUMED A NORTHWARD MOTION...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN U.S. AND A SIMILAR DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC EAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND ARE FORECAST TO AMPLIFY...\r\nWHICH WILL INDUCE MID-LEVEL RIDGING NEAR THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST\r\nBETWEEN THOSE TWO SYSTEMS. THAT RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE SANDY TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN 24-36 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS AN\r\nAPPROACHING DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES BY 72 HOURS AND BEGINS TO ACCELERATE SANDY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nDEVELOPING SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND NOGAPS TAKING SANDY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND INLAND OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 120\r\nHOURS...WHEREAS THE GFS MODEL KEEPS SANDY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY\r\nFROM THE U.S. AND OVER THE OPEN NORTH ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES.\r\nGIVEN THE HISTORICAL RELIABILITY OF THE VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF MODEL\r\nOVER THE PAST 2 DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS TURNED SLIGHTLY\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 120 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN...AND THE FSU TRACK MODEL.\r\n\r\nOWING TO THE HIGHER CURRENT INTENSITY OF SANDY...THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ALSO HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...AND THEN IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST AS INCREASING SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE MAIN\r\nFORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING JUST HOW MUCH BAROCLINIC\r\nINFLUENCE THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL HAVE ON\r\nSANDY...AND ALSO WHAT THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF SANDY WILL BE AFTER\r\n48 HOURS. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL\r\nAMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES NEAR THE CENTER THROUGH 120 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SUGGESTS THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION AND\r\nPOSSIBLY AN INNER-CORE WARM STRUCTURE THAT WOULD KEEP SOME TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY MODELS.\r\nTHE FORECAST WILL STILL CALL FOR SANDY TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY\r\n120 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 20.9N  75.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 23.1N  75.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 25.4N  76.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 26.8N  76.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 28.1N  76.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 31.2N  73.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 34.5N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 37.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-10-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS\r\nIMPRESSIVE AFTER MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA. THE EYE IS NO LONGER\r\nAPPARENT IN IMAGERY OR IN OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT...AND THE\r\nCDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT DISRUPTED ON THE WESTERN SIDE BY\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY\r\nREMAINS QUITE STRONG...WITH A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 700 MB OF\r\n126 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 964 MB. DATA FROM THE SFMR AND\r\nDROPSONDES SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL ARE NOT\r\nCURRENTLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AT THE TYPICAL RATIO...SO A\r\nBLEND OF THE DATA SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...DURING THIS TIME THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF\r\nSANDY IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND...AND SANDY IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE\r\nCYCLONE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AFTER A BIT OF A JOG TO THE\r\nRIGHT EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE REASONING FOR THE SHORT-TERM\r\nPORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. SANDY SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHWARD TODAY AND SLOW DOWN AS IT TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON\r\nFRIDAY WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW.\r\nSANDY SHOULD THEN TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HOURS AHEAD OF A\r\nLONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN\r\nSIGNIFICANT DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THIS\r\nINTERACTION AND WHERE THE NORTHWEST TURN WILL OCCUR. THE ECMWF AND\r\nGFDL MODELS SHOW A QUICKER TURN...BRINGING THE CENTER INLAND BY DAY\r\n5. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE GRADUAL TURN\r\nWITH THE CENTER STILL OFFSHORE AT 120 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND LIES ABOUT HALFWAY\r\nBETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT\r\nIS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nNOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT\r\nDESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH\r\nSANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES\r\nWILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER OF SANDY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 22.4N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 24.4N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 26.2N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 27.4N  76.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 28.9N  76.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 32.0N  73.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 36.0N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 39.5N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-10-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT STRUCTURAL CHANGES ARE ALREADY\r\nOCCURRING WITH SANDY. DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR WESTERN CUBA ARE\r\nIMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-\r\nLEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE STILL 109 KT AT THE END OF THE\r\nLAST MISSION AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS AT 963 MB. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME DECREASE IN\r\nTHE MAXIMUM WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nSANDY BECOMES MORE ENTANGLED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...HOWEVER THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW SANDY REMAINING A VERY DEEP CYCLONE AND THE WIND\r\nFIELD EXPANDING DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY DEEPENS AGAIN OFF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH.\r\nREGARDLESS...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE CYCLONE AT OR NEAR\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/17...AS SANDY HAS BEGUN TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHWARD DUE TO THE UPPER LOW. THE REASONING FOR THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. SANDY WILL BE PULLED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN ON FRIDAY WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW. THEN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS\r\nEXPECTED BY SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS NOW SHOW A TURN BACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO SANDY INTERACTING\r\nWITH AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS AND\r\nMID-ATLANTIC STATES. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN SOME SIGNIFICANT\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THIS INTERACTION...AS THE ECMWF HAS\r\nSANDY FARTHER WEST AND INTERACTING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SOONER\r\nRELATIVE TO MOST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOWS A WIDER\r\nTURN AND A TRACK FARTHER NORTH. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF SANDY...IT IS\r\nLIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL BE FELT OVER PORTIONS OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nNOTE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES ARE NOT\r\nDESIGNED TO HANDLE THE TYPE OF STRUCTURAL CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH\r\nSANDY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THESE PROBABILITIES\r\nWILL UNDERESTIMATE THE ACTUAL RISK OF STRONG WINDS AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER OF SANDY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 24.5N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 26.0N  76.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 27.4N  77.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 28.3N  77.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 29.8N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 33.0N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 37.5N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 40.5N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-10-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2012\r\n\r\nREPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT SANDY\r\nHAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING.  THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nAT 8000 FT WERE 90 KT...AND DROPSONDES IN WHAT REMAINED OF THE\r\nEYEWALL SUGGESTED 70 KT SURFACE WINDS.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD\r\nRISEN TO 968 MB.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 80 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO\r\nEXPAND...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nSANDY HAS BEGUN ITS ANTICIPATED LEFT TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nNOW 335/11.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS IT INTERACTS\r\nWITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...A DEEP-LAYER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD. \r\nAFTER 72 HR...SANDY SHOULD INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING\r\nTHROUGH THE LARGER LONGWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nBACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...A TRACK THAT SHOULD BRING THE CENTER\r\nONSHORE IN THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR\r\nTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS...AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR A LITTLE MORE\r\nWESTWARD POSITION AT THE 24 HOUR POINT THAT LIES BETWEEN THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\nOTHERWISE...THE TRACK IS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER AND NEAR SANDY...WHICH IS HELPING TO\r\nKEEP THE STORM GOING DESPITE 35 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE\r\nRESULT OF THIS INTERACTION IS THAT SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND\r\nIN SIZE...WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN THE CENTRAL WINDS.  LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...INTERACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE CYCLONE STARTS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THIS PROCESS IS LIKELY TO BEGIN AS EARLY\r\nAS 96 HR...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR IT WILL HAVE PROCEEDED\r\nBEFORE THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL.  THUS...THE FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE POST-TROPICAL IN 120 HR...WITH A VERY\r\nLOW CONFIDENCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH SOME MODIFICATION TO THE FIRST 36 HR DUE\r\nTO THE OBSERVED WEAKENING THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 25.3N  76.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 26.6N  76.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 27.6N  77.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 28.9N  76.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 30.4N  75.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 34.0N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 37.5N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 40.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-10-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF SANDY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE...AS SHEAR AND DRY AIR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST HAVE DISPLACED MOST\r\nOF THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AIRCRAFT DATA SHOW THAT\r\nWHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE PRESSURE\r\nGRADIENT AND WIND FIELD HAVE BROADENED SUBSTANTIALLY. AS A\r\nRESULT...WINDS FROM FLIGHT LEVEL DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MIXING DOWN TO\r\nTHE SURFACE VERY EFFICIENTLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 70 KT. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTERWARD...SOME RE-\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH...GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LARGE CYCLONE\r\nDEEPENING OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IT\r\nAPPEARS THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF WARM SECLUSION\r\nSTRUCTURE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT SANDY COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL A LITTLE SOONER THAN\r\nINDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325/11. AS\r\nSANDY CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LOW IT WILL SLOW DOWN\r\nTODAY AND TONIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD...WHILE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SANDY TURNING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE SPREAD IN THE EXACT\r\nTRACK. THE ECMWF...GFDL...HWRF...AND SOME OF THE HFIP GUIDANCE SHOW\r\nA SHARPER TURN TOWARD THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WHILE THE GFS AND\r\nUKMET SHOW A WIDER TURN WITH A TRACK FARTHER NORTH TOWARD LONG\r\nISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN THE ECMWF\r\nAND THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS\r\nSANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE EXPECTED GROWTH IN THE SIZE OF\r\nTHE OUTER WIND FIELD...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR\r\nPORTIONS OF THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 26.3N  76.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 27.2N  77.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 28.3N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 29.7N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 31.4N  74.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 35.5N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 38.5N  74.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 40.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-10-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND THE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR\r\nCONTINUES TO AFFECT THE HURRICANE...AS VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION.  USING A BLEND OF FLIGHT-LEVEL AND\r\nSFMR WINDS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT YIELDS A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AT\r\nLEAST SLIGHT WEAKENING.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS VERY\r\nLIKELY DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES.  BY 72 HOURS...THE MODELS SHOW\r\nSIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...WHICH SHOULD HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nPROCESS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS POST-TROPICAL\r\nAT 96 HOURS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF\r\nTHE TRANSITION.  REGARDLESS...WHETHER SANDY IS OFFICIALLY TROPICAL\r\nOR POST-TROPICAL AT LANDFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE BEARING ON THE\r\nIMPACTS.\r\n \r\nLATEST FIXES FROM HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW A VERY SLOW MOTION\r\nWITH THE CENTER APPEARING TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD.  THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5.  SANDY IS EXPECTED TO ESCAPE THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND TO BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC\r\nNORTHWEST COAST IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND DIG AS\r\nIT APPROACHES THE EASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72 HOURS.  THE FLOW ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST SIDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ALSO VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  USERS ARE REMINDED TO NOT\r\nFOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS\r\nSANDY IS EXPECTED TO BRING IMPACTS TO A LARGE PART OF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 26.7N  76.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 27.6N  77.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 28.9N  76.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 30.5N  75.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 32.2N  73.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 36.0N  72.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 39.0N  75.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  31/1200Z 40.5N  78.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-10-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF SANDY REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nMAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AS STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE\r\nTHE SYSTEM.  THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE SUGGESTED THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE DROPPING BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STATUS.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT PENDING\r\nTHE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION SCHEDULED FOR A 0000\r\nUTC CENTER FIX.  THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nREMAIN QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THEREFORE THE NHC\r\nFORECAST INDICATES WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE\r\nPRESUMABLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING.  THIS IS ALSO INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FOREACST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST\r\nTHAT SANDY COULD TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 3\r\nTO 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TO BE RATHER SLOW AND...IN FACT...RECENT\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST LITTLE SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT OF THE CENTER. \r\nHOWEVER A MORE REPRESENTATIVE ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION IS NEAR 360/6. \r\nAFTER SANDY ESCAPES THE INFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nITS WEST...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BY AROUND 72\r\nHOURS...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD AND OVER THE\r\nU.S. COAST.  INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM SINCE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM\r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 27.3N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 28.3N  77.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 29.7N  76.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 31.3N  74.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 33.1N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 37.0N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 39.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/1800Z 41.0N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-10-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012\r\n\r\nSANDY IS SHOWING CHARACTERISTICS OF A HYBRID CYCLONE THIS EVENING. \r\nOVERALL...THE SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A LARGE OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW. \r\nHOWEVER...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW STRONG TEMPERATURE\r\nGRADIENTS...AND CENTRAL CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN BANDS TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM NEAR 2000\r\nUTC INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAD A DEEP WARM CORE. \r\nDROPSONDES AND SFMR DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nSHOWED A LARGE AREA OF 60 KT WINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND BASED ON THIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT STRONGER WINDS\r\nWERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.  AN\r\nINTERESTING NOTE IS THAT THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES THAT THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS IN THE CONVECTION AT FLIGHT-LEVEL ARE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nLESS THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE EVENING...WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 010/6.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AND THIS MOTION\r\nSHOULD PERSIST FOR 48 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...A NEGATIVELY-TILTED\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST AND A RIDGE OVER EXTREME\r\nEASTERN CANADA SHOULD CAUSE SANDY TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST...TOWARD AND OVER THE U.S. COAST.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST DURING THE FIRST 48\r\nHR...AND THE FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  HOWEVER...THERE\r\nWAS LITTLE CHANGE AFTER THAT TIME...AND THE LANDFALL AREA AND TIME\r\nIS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSANDY IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 50 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWHICH IS DISRUPTING THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.  HOWEVER...VERY\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS LIKELY SUSTAINING THE CYCLONE.  WHILE THESE\r\nCONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE...IT IS LIKELY THAT SANDY WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH WILL CAUSE SANDY TO RE-INTENSIFY PRIMARILY DUE TO\r\nBAROCLININC ENERGY PROCESSES.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SANDY\r\nREGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48-72 HR.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THIS HAPPENS...AND\r\nWHEN THIS PROCESS WILL BE COMPLETE IS UNCERTAIN.  REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nEXACT STRUCTURE AT LANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM\r\nTHE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 27.7N  77.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 28.8N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 30.4N  75.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 32.0N  73.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 33.8N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 37.5N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 40.0N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/0000Z 42.0N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandy","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVERNIGHT. THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE. HOWEVER...DRY AIR AT THE MID\r\nAND UPPER LEVEL IS FULLY ENTRAINED INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE REMAINS STEADY AROUND 969 MB...\r\nBUT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE PEAK WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO\r\nAROUND 60 KT WHILE THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE. THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO BE LOCATED IN THE CONVECTIVE BAND WEST\r\nAND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...WHERE RECENT SFMR AND DROPSONDE DATA\r\nSHOWED A LARGE AREA OF WINDS AROUND 55 KT.\r\n \r\nWHILE A LITTLE WEAKENING OF THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nWEST OF SANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CENTRAL PRESSURE.\r\nAS SANDY INTERACTS WITH A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENING DUE TO\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING WHILE THE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO GROW IN SIZE.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST SHOWS SANDY AGAIN REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH AT\r\n48 HOURS...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL\r\nDURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT SANDY\r\nWILL BE EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSANDY HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n020/09. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS\r\nSANDY WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SHARP\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TURN TOWARD THE U.S. EAST COAST IS EXPECTED AFTER 48\r\nHOURS AS SANDY INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVING\r\nINTO THE CAROLINAS. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL...BUT THE MOST\r\nNOTABLE TREND THIS CYCLE IS TOWARD A FASTER MOTION AS THE CYCLONE\r\nTURNS NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION AND SHOWS THE CENTER INLAND AT 72 HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE\r\nNEW NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF AND THE GFS THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE AND LANDFALL LOCATION...SANDY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE WITH SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPACTS EXTENDING WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nNOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 28.6N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 29.8N  75.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 31.4N  74.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 33.2N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 35.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 40.0N  75.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 41.5N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/0600Z 43.5N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012\r\n \r\nNOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN\r\nSAMPLING THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING.  THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FOUND\r\nAN AREA OF HURRICANE-FORCE SFMR WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 91 KT.  A\r\nDROPSONDE RELEASED FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT IN THE SAME AREA ALSO\r\nSUPPORTED WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE.  THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT ALSO\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 956 MB FROM A DROPSONDE\r\nAROUND 1200 UTC...BUT THE PRESSURE IS UP A COUPLE OF MILLIBARS ON\r\nTHE LATEST FIX.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INTENSITY WAS\r\nINCREASED ON THE 8 AM INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AND SANDY IS ONCE AGAIN\r\nA 65-KT HURRICANE.  WHILE SANDY COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE AT\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nMOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY LATE SUNDAY...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE PREPVIOUS FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN \r\nAFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX SHOWS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nMADE A JOG TO THE EAST DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THE LONGER\r\nTERM MOTION YIELDS AN INTIAL MOTION OF 030/8 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 TO 48 HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW SHARP A\r\nWESTWARD TURN THE CYCLONE MAKES BEFORE REACHING THE EAST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE GFS...\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 48\r\nHOURS AND THEN A VERY HARD TURN TO THE WEST...MEANING THAT SANDY\r\nWOULD LIKELY COME ASHORE MOVING FROM EAST TO WEST...RATHER THAN\r\nFROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS SUGGESTED BY DRAWING A STRAIGHT LINE\r\nBETWEEN THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS.  HAVING SAID THAT...IT\r\nIS STILL TO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER...BOTH\r\nBECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE IMPACTS ARE GOING\r\nTO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nNOTE THAT WIND HAZARDS FOR SANDY NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA ARE BEING HANDLED BY HIGH WIND...STORM...AND GALE WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.  GALE\r\nCONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE\r\nSUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 29.0N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 30.4N  75.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 32.2N  73.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 34.2N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 36.4N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 39.8N  77.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 40.8N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/1200Z 43.8N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012\r\n \r\nFIRST A NOTE ON THE NWS WARNING STRATEGY FOR SANDY.  IN ORDER TO\r\nAVOID THE RISK OF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO\r\nNON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND\r\nHAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nCONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS WARNINGS ISSUED BY\r\nLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.  \r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAS WRAPPED AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY\r\nHAVE CAUSED THE RECENT WEAKENING OF THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION.  THE\r\nAIR FORCE AIRCRAFT MADE ITS FINAL PASS THROUGH SANDY AROUND 1800\r\nUTC AND REPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF AROUND 961 MB.  WIND DATA\r\nFROM THE AIRCRAFT AND A RECENT DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT\r\nCONDUCTING A SURVEILLANCE MISSION AROUND SANDY SUPPORT MAINTAINING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREASONING. SANDY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nINTERACT WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT\r\nMOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN DUE TO BAROCLINIC\r\nPROCESSES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 48 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS SHOW COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTH PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND SANDY IS LIKELY TO HAVE COMPLETED ITS\r\nTRANSFORMATION TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT THAT TIME.\r\nAFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nWITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. SANDY IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN WESTWARD AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH. ONCE AGAIN...DRAWING A\r\nSTRAIGHT LINE BETWEEN THE 48- AND 72-HOUR FORECAST POINTS DOES NOT\r\nQUITE DEPICT HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO COME TO LONG\r\nISLAND.  HAVING SAID THAT...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE\r\nEXACT TRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE\r\nIMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 30.2N  75.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 31.5N  73.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 33.4N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 35.4N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 37.9N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 40.0N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 42.5N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/1800Z 45.5N  74.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nSANDY HAS INCREASED DURING THE EVENING.  IN ADDITION...DATA FROM AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION AT 10000-12000 FT IS STRONGER THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND\r\nTHERE ARE INDICATIONS OF AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM NEAR THE CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED\r\nPRESSURE IS ABOUT 960 MB. \r\n\r\nSANDY HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 040/12.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE\r\nIS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  SANDY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...\r\nSTEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  AFTER THAT...A DEVELOPING MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHEASTERN CANADA AND INTERACTION WITH THE U. S. TROUGH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND\r\nEVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER\r\nINLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS.  AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE U. S. TROUGH TO FORM\r\nA LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH THE RESULTING SYSTEM\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.  AS NOTED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT\r\nTRACK...BOTH BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AND BECAUSE THE\r\nIMPACTS ARE GOING TO COVER SUCH A LARGE AREA AWAY FROM THE CENTER.\r\n\r\nSANDY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE CAUSED BY\r\nA TROUGH TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THIS IS LIKELY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE\r\nHURRICANE DESPITE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  WHILE THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS...\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY\r\nTHE SHEAR COULD DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...AND IF THAT HAPPENS\r\nSANDY COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  AFTER 36\r\nHOURS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL FORECAST THAT INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nU. S. TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE SOME INTENSIFICATION ALONG WITH\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETE BY 48\r\nHOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL HAVE LITTLE\r\nEFFECT ON THE SIZE AND IMPACTS OF THIS LARGE AND VIGOROUS SYSTEM. \r\nAFTER LANDFALL...THE FORECAST AGAIN CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nSTEADILY WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nAS ALSO NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN ORDER TO AVOID THE RISK\r\nOF A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL\r\nWARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED\r\nTHROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 30.9N  74.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 32.2N  72.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 34.1N  71.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 36.3N  71.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 38.7N  72.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 40.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 43.5N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0000Z 47.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012\r\n \r\nTHE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT MISSION DID NOT\r\nFIND WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY.\r\nHOWEVER...EARLIER DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT WINDS TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH WERE OCCURRING WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...BEYOND THE RADIAL LEGS COVERED BY THIS AIRCRAFT.  ALTHOUGH\r\nIT COULD BE GENEROUS...THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  AIRCRAFT AND DROPSONDE DATA LATER TODAY SHOULD PROVIDE\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY OF SANDY.  THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR HAS DECREASED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THEREFORE...THERE IS STILL\r\nSOME SHORT-TERM POTENTIAL FOR SANDY TO INTENSIFY AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE GULF STREAM\r\nTODAY.  IN THE 24 TO 48 HOUR TIME FRAME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nINTENSIFICATION OF THE CYCLONE WHICH IS UNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO\r\nBAROCLINIC PROCESSES...AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH\r\nCOLDER WATERS BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE\r\nTRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS HAS LITTLE OR NO BEARING ON THE OVERALL\r\nIMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...SHOW RAPID\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FIX FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MOTION HAS REMAINED\r\nNEARLY THE SAME...OR 040/12.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THIS ADVISORY.  AS SANDY INTERACTS\r\nWITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAXIMUM APPROACHING THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IT SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD.  AFTERWARDS...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND A\r\nHIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE 0000 UTC RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nMODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THIS GUIDANCE AND THE LATEST\r\nFLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE\r\nCHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 31.9N  73.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 33.2N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 35.2N  70.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 37.7N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 39.5N  73.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 40.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 44.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0600Z 47.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-10-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nMISSIONS THIS MORNING HAVE REVEALED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nINTENSITY OR OVERALL STRUCTURE OF SANDY...EVEN THOUGH SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A BANDING EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BENE AS LOW AS 951 MB. THE AIRCRAFT DATA...\r\nALONG WITH DATA FROM SHIPS...BUOYS...AND SURFACE OBSERVATION SITES\r\nINDICATE...HOWEVER...THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS CONTINUED TO EXPAND.\r\nHURRICANE-FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 150 N MI TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...AND THE 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO ABOUT\r\n200 N MI IN THAT SAME QUADRANT. BASED ON THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND\r\nSFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AT 65 KT.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME TRACK WOBBLES BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS 045/12 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A\r\nSTRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE\r\nTENNESSEE VALLEY THAT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVED EASTWARD TOWARD THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AS THE TROUGH UNDERCUTS\r\nSANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND POSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS WITHIN 48 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE IN THE 12 TO 36-HOUR\r\nPERIOD AND SANDY IS EXPECTED MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE HURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS\r\nGREATER THAN 25C. AS A RESULT...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR\r\nSANDY TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY WHEN\r\nIT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE WARM GULFSTREAM TONIGHT. BY 36 HOURS...\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEEPENING OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS\r\nUNDOUBTEDLY DUE TO STRONG BAROCLINIC FORCING...AND A TRANSITION TO\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE\r\nOVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...INDICATE\r\nRAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE\r\nCHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 32.5N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 34.0N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 36.4N  70.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 38.7N  72.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 40.1N  76.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 41.3N  77.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 44.5N  76.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/1200Z 46.6N  73.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-10-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012\r\n \r\nDATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY OF SANDY HAS OCCURRED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY AT\r\n951-952 MB SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWINDS OF 78 KT WERE MEASURED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...BUT NO\r\nSFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE WERE DETECTED IN ANY\r\nQUADRANT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD OF\r\nSANDY...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE AIRCRAFT MISSED SOME OF THE POCKETS\r\nOF STRONGER SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/13 KT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS COME IN NEARLY ON TOP OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...SO THERE\r\nREMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.\r\nSANDY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nTENNESSEE VALLEY...AND WILL REACH THE U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO UNDERCUT SANDY TO ITS SOUTH...THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THAT\r\nRIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...ALBEIT\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER AFTER 24 HOURS...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODEL FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN\r\nDECREASING...AND SOME WEAK OUTFLOW IS NOW APPARENT IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND AS A RESULT SANDY IS EXPECTED\r\nMAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHILE THE\r\nHURRICANE REMAINS OVER SSTS GREATER THAN 25C. IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME BAROCLINIC DEEPENING AS SANDY\r\nBEGINS ITS TURN TOWARD THE COAST. A TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nTRANSITION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS OF THIS DANGEROUS\r\nWEATHER SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE\r\nCHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 33.4N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 35.0N  70.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 37.7N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 39.5N  74.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 40.2N  76.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 42.7N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 44.7N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/1800Z 45.6N  71.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-10-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTING A 25-35 MILE WIDE EYE WITH AN OPEN EYEWALL.  HOWEVER...\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE STORM ARE NOT OCCURRING IN THE\r\nEYEWALL...AS THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT FOUND A LARGE\r\nAREA OF AT LEAST 60 KT SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 100-120 N MI SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...THE AIR FORCE PLANE REPORTED 700-MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 102 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...AND THE\r\nLIKELIHOOD THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.\r\n\r\nSANDY HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 035/12.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE OR THE FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nWITH SANDY EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAND NORTHWESTWARD ON MONDAY.  THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER\r\nNEAR OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN ABOUT 30 HOURS...\r\nAND IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS AN EARLIER\r\nLANDFALL TIME THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTER LANDFALL...SANDY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MERGE WITH THE DEEP-LAYER BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD.  A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE EAST IS LIKELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF SANDY\r\nSURVIVES THAT LONG.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER SANDY...AND THE CENTER IS\r\nMOVING OVER A LOCALLY WARMER PATCH OF WATER.  THESE CONDITIONS MAY\r\nHAVE ALLOWED THE EYEWALL FORMATION...AND THEY COULD LEAD TO SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN ADDITION TO THAT CAUSED BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. \r\nHOWEVER...SURFACE AND UPPER-AIR DATA SHOW THAT THE PROCESS OF\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS BEGINNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL COLD\r\nFRONT NOW INTERACTING WITH THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THIS\r\nTRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS...BUT IT WILL\r\nNOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAINS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.  SANDY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE\r\nCHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 34.5N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 36.4N  70.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 38.7N  73.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 39.8N  75.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 40.6N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 43.5N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 45.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  03/0000Z 46.0N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-10-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012\r\n \r\nSANDY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...WITH AN EYE OCCASIONALLY VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. \r\nALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE...SFMR MEASUREMENTS...FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...AND DROPSONDE\r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT THE WINDS\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 KT.  SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL TRAVERSE\r\nTHE GULF STREAM THIS MORNING...AND THE SHEAR IS NOT TOO STRONG AT\r\nTHIS TIME...SOME MORE STRENGTHENING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nPOSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN MECHANISM\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION LATER TODAY SHOULD BE BAROCLINIC FORCING.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS PREDICTION\r\nAS THAT MODEL SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TYPE\r\nOF SYSTEM FAIRLY WELL.\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT A WELL-MARKED WARM AND COLD FRONT LIE NOT\r\nFAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CENTER OF SANDY.  AS THE\r\nCIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THESE FRONTS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LATER TODAY.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE COMPLETE BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS\r\nTRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE OVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING\r\nRAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS WEATHER SYSTEM.  BASED ON THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR ABOUT\r\n360/13...AS IT BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  AS IT MOVES BETWEEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE AND A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE NEAR\r\nATLANTIC CANADA...SANDY SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHIS TRACK SHOULD RESULT IN THE CENTER MAKING LANDFALL IN THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA\r\nSEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT\r\nNECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE\r\nCHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 35.9N  70.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 37.8N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 39.5N  75.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 40.0N  77.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 40.5N  77.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 44.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 45.5N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  03/0600Z 46.5N  70.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-10-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012\r\n \r\nSANDY IS MAINTAINING A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...WITH BOTH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nAND VARIOUS MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATING A 20 N MI DIAMETER\r\nEYE HAS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM 700 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BEEN 94 KT IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT...AND\r\nSFMR-ADJUSTED SURFACE WINDS OF 80-83 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT MORE THAN 90 N MI FROM THE CENTER.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A\r\nLITTLE...TO ABOUT 943 MB.  BASED ON THE LATEST RECONNAISSANCE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT.\r\n \r\nRECONNAISSANCE CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT SANDY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nTURNING TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT\r\n330/16 KT. THE LATEST RECON FIXES HAVE BEEN FALLING ON THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK...AND SO HAVE THE LATEST 12Z NHC FORECAST MODELS.\r\nTHEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ADVISORY PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nOR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. SANDY IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF THE AXIS\r\nOF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON. LANDFALL ALONG OR\r\nJUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST IS EXPECTED LATE THIS\r\nEVENING...AT WHICH TIME A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED.\r\nAFTER MOVING INLAND OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. BY 48 HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nNHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND\r\nLIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCN.\r\n \r\nSANDY IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A NARROW RIDGE OF WARM SSTS AROUND\r\n27C...WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF STREAM. THIS EXTRA\r\nLOW-LEVEL HEAT INPUT HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT INCREASE\r\nIN CONVECTION AROUND THE EYE. HOWEVER...SANDY WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nTHE NORTH WALL OF THE GULFSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS...WHICH\r\nWILL BRING A HALT TO ANY SIGNIFICANT INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE\r\nDEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE\r\nOVERALL INTENSITY OR THE SIZE OF THE EXTREMELY LARGE WIND FIELD\r\nTHAT IS NOW MORE THAN 1000 N MI IN DIAMETER. AT THE MOMENT...\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE COULD SPREAD INTO\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT WELL-DEFINED WARM AND COLD FRONTS LIE\r\nVERY NEAR THE CENTER OF SANDY...AND THE COMBINATION OF COLDER OCEAN\r\nWATER AND NEARBY FRONTAL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE REACHES\r\nTHE COAST.  HOWEVER...THIS TRANSFORMATION WILL NOT DIMINISH THE\r\nOVERALL IMPACTS FROM WINDS TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...LIFE-THREATENING\r\nSTORM SURGE... AND FLOODING RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DANGEROUS\r\nWEATHER SYSTEM.  BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY AFTER LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE CENTER OR THE EXACT\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SINCE STRONG WINDS COVER AN AREA\r\nSEVERAL HUNDRED MILES ACROSS...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL NOT\r\nNECESSARILY BE NEAR THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET\r\nABOVE THE GROUND.\r\n \r\nAS NOTED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...TO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE\r\nCHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL WARNINGS WHEN SANDY BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...THE WIND HAZARD NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING\r\nAREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WATCHES AND\r\nWARNINGS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 37.5N  71.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 39.0N  74.0W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 39.9N  76.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 40.4N  77.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 41.5N  77.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 44.5N  75.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 45.9N  72.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  03/1200Z 47.5N  68.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandy","Adv":30,"Date":"2012-10-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCB\r\n \r\nHURRICANE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF SANDY HAS DETERIORATED TODAY...EVEN AS\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY FALL...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nTHE CONVECTION IS NO LONGER DRIVING THE BUS.  THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nOBSERVED THIS MORNING WAS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WINDS OCCURRING TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...OUTSIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORE...AND WAS\r\nALMOST CERTAINLY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING.  IN ADDITION...AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE STRONG TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS VERY NEAR\r\nA MODEST RESIDUAL WARM CORE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nSANDY IS BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION.  ALL OF THESE CONSIDERATIONS LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT\r\nTHE MOST APPROPRIATE CLASSIFICATION AT ADVISORY TIME IS\r\nEXTRATROPICAL.  HOWEVER...FOR CONTINUITY OF SERVICE NHC WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES THROUGH LANDFALL.  A POST-STORM\r\nANALYSIS WILL RE-EXAMINE THE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  \r\n\r\nWE ANTICIPATES THAT THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON SANDY WILL BE ISSUED AT\r\n11 PM EDT TONIGHT. SINCE ALL COASTAL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE\r\nBEEN DISCONTINUED...THERE WILL BE NO INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORIES\r\nISSUED BETWEEN NOW AND THE 11 PM NHC ADVISORY.  TO PROVIDE A\r\nCONTINUOUS FLOW OF INFORMATION...NHC WILL ISSUE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nUPDATES AT 7 PM AND 9 PM EDT...AND AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THESE\r\nUPDATES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT63...AND AWIPS HEADER\r\nTCUAT3...AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE ON THE NHC WEBSITE.  BEGINNING\r\nAT 5 AM EDT TUESDAY...PUBLIC ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE\r\nHYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...HPC...UNDER THE SAME WMO\r\nAND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC ADVISORIES...WHICH WILL ALSO BE\r\nAVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE POST-LANDFALL TRACK OR\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  DESPITE THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION TODAY...SANDY\r\nIS EXPECTED TO STALL INLAND TOMORROW.  THIS...COUPLED WITH THE VERY\r\nLARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...WILL MEAN THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW\r\nTO IMPROVE IN THE AFFECTED AREAS.  STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG\r\nTHE COAST AND SPREAD FARTHER INLAND THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.  OF\r\nPARTICULAR CONCERN ARE THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS...AS\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS JUST A FEW HUNDRED FEET IN\r\nALTITUDE ARE VERY MUCH STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR THE SURFACE.  EVEN\r\nAS SANDY WEAKENS...HEAVY RAINS WILL PERSIST OVER A LARGE\r\nAREA...POSING A VERY SIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOOD RISK.\r\n\r\nTO AVOID A HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE CHANGE FROM TROPICAL TO NON-TROPICAL\r\nWARNINGS AS SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...THE WIND AND OTHER\r\nHAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE CONVEYED THROUGH HIGH WIND WARNINGS\r\nISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 38.8N  74.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 39.8N  76.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 40.4N  78.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 41.3N  78.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 42.8N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 45.1N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 46.3N  72.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  03/1800Z 47.5N  65.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Sandy","Adv":31,"Date":"2012-10-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL182012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...SURFACE...AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY\r\nAROUND 0000 UTC.  THE INTENSITY OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WAS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 80 KT AT LANDFALL WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF\r\n946 MB.  AT LANDFALL...THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER\r\nWATER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HURRICANE-FORCE\r\nWINDS GUSTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND THE NEW YORK\r\nMETROPOLITAN AREA THIS EVENING.  IN ADDITION...A SIGNIFICANT STORM\r\nSURGE HAS OCCURRED ALONG A LONG STRETCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND\r\nSOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER\r\nINLAND....CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS STRONG WINDS AND\r\nELEVATED WATER LEVELS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE COAST FOR ANOTHER DAY\r\nOR SO.  HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER A LARGE\r\nAREA OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...POSING A VERY\r\nSIGNIFICANT INLAND FLOOD RISK.  SANDY TOOK A NORTHWARD JOG BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL THIS EVENING AND HAS ALSO SLOWED DOWN.  THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHWARD...THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND\r\nGFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT SANDY IS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE NEXT PUBLIC\r\nADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...HPC...AT 500 AM EDT TUESDAY.  THE PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE\r\nISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE NHC PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES...AND WILL ALSO BE AVAILABLE VIA THE NHC WEBSITE.\r\nHIGH WIND WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\r\nFORECAST OFFICES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE\r\nMID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\nTHANKS GO OUT TO THE CREWS OF THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS FOR PROVIDING CRITICAL MEASUREMENTS IN AND AROUND\r\nSANDY DURING THE LAST SEVEN DAYS.  THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER\r\nWOULD ALSO LIKE TO THANK THE LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS\r\nTHE COUNTRY THAT HAVE CONDUCTED SPECIAL RADIOSONDE RELEASES AS SANDY\r\nAPPROACHED THE COAST.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 39.8N  75.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 40.5N  77.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 41.3N  78.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 42.6N  77.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 44.0N  76.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 46.5N  74.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 48.5N  70.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nDAY...AND BOTH TAFB AND SAB PROVIDED 1800 UTC DVORAK ESTIMATES OF\r\nT2.0.  ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION NINETEEN WITH 30-KT WINDS.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO...SO SOME STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY.  AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 30 KT...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A\r\nFRONTAL LOW...AND A WEAK ONE AT THAT...BY 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A PEAK IN INTENSITY OCCURRING IN\r\n48 HOURS WITH STEADY WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  INTERESTINGLY...THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5 EVEN IN THE FACE OF MORE HOSTILE CONDITIONS.  GIVEN THAT\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST THAT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WILL FEED\r\nOFF OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS LOWER THAN MOST\r\nOF THE HURRICANE MODELS.  DISSIPATION IS ANTICIPATED BY DAY 5 WHEN\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE WEST OF THE AZORES.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n350/6 KT.  THE CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BE PICKED UP\r\nBY FASTER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE\r\nGFS MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 22.3N  51.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 23.7N  51.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 25.4N  51.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 26.7N  49.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 27.7N  47.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 30.0N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 33.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. THE\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO BROKEN BANDS TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 2.3/33 KT FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR\r\nAND OVER WARM WATER...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SIMILAR\r\nCONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING SEEMS\r\nLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AIDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A\r\nCOLD FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL LOW OVER COOLER WATER IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH OR\r\nBECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHAT SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST\r\nAND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS\r\nTHE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...A FASTER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 23.0N  51.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 24.3N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 26.0N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 27.3N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 28.3N  45.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 31.2N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 35.0N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED BD-CURVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING...WITH ISOLATED\r\nPATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND SURROUNDING THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION.  WATER VAPOR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW SOME DRY AIR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE\r\nINTRUDING IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE TAFB\r\nFINAL-T NUMBER HAS DECREASED TO 30 KT WHILE THE SAB ESTIMATE\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED AT 35 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS AGAIN HELD\r\nAT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36-48 HR BEFORE INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO NEGATIVELY AFFECT THE CYCLONE. THE FSU\r\nCYCLONE PHASE EVOLUTION FORECAST...BASED ON THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS...INDICATES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 72 HR.\r\nAFTERWARD...THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF...SHOW THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BECOMING ABSORBED BY A\r\nLARGE BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN AROUND 5 DAYS.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON\r\nTHE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nWITH SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE\r\nILL-DEFINED CENTER THIS MORNING.  IN FACT...AN EARLIER METOP-A\r\nAMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTED THAT THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTERS.  WITH THAT...THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON\r\nA MEAN CENTER AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 015/10. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PRODUCED BY A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SITUATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.  THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEPRESSION MAKING A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING AROUND THE 36-HR PERIOD\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.  THROUGH THE\r\nREMAINING PERIOD...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE IN A GENERAL\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TVCA CONSENSUS MODEL AND A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT CLOSER TO THE MODEL\r\nCLUSTER AT DAY 4.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 24.1N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 25.3N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 26.6N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 27.5N  47.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 28.5N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 31.6N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 36.4N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A SMALL BUT PERSISTENT\r\nCLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REGENERATING NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION AND AN OUTER BAND FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.\r\nUW-CIMSS AMSU AND ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD HAVE REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...BUT\r\nSUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.0.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS BEING HELD AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION UNTIL WE GET MORE\r\nCONSENSUS AMONG THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE \r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nWILL INCREASE TO OVER 50 KT IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nTHEREFORE ONLY HAS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME IN WHICH CONDITIONS ARE\r\nMOST FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A FRONTAL LOW\r\nBY 72 HOURS WITH NO SUBSEQUENT INFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY TO\r\nSUPPORT A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nTHEREFORE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS ON DAYS 3\r\nAND 4.  THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THE LOW\r\nWILL DISSIPATE...WITH THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWING DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS\r\nWHILE THE UKMET MAINTAINS A LOW BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS...WHICH IS THE SAME\r\nSOLUTION SHOWN BY THE GFS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD A LITTLE FASTER\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n015/13 KT.  THE FORWARD SPEED SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS THE DEPRESSION TRANSITIONS FROM A POSITION TO THE EAST OF A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CUTOFF LOW INTO THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION SHOULD\r\nTHEN OCCUR AFTER 24 HOURS UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A GENERAL SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 25.7N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 26.7N  50.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 27.8N  48.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 28.5N  45.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 29.5N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 32.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 38.0N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE INCREASING NEAR THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  CLOUD LINES WITHIN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION ARE PEEKING OUT FROM UNDER THE DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH\r\nHAS ALSO LOST SOME OF ITS CURVATURE AND IS A LITTLE MORE LINEAR.\r\nDVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE STILL T2.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  EVEN THOUGH THE MAGNITUDE OF\r\nTHE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ABOVE 30 KT IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR PROFILE AND SHEAR DIRECTION SHOULD NOT BE TOO PROHIBITIVE FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING.  EVEN STILL...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS\r\nWELL BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BEYOND 12 HOURS AND INDICATES A PEAK\r\nOF 40 KT IN A DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY\r\nWARM WATER.  THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS AS IT BECOMES INVOLVED WITH A FRONT LOCATED TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST...AND IT COULD STRENGTHEN A BIT BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY\r\nA LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF THE AZORES BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/12 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS APPROACHING\r\nSTRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO ITS NORTH...AND IT SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...HAVE TRENDED\r\nA LITTLE FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nTHEREFORE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD BY DAY 4 WHEN IT BEGINS\r\nTO INTERACT WITH THE COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE\r\nAZORES.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF\r\nWIND WAVES GENERATED BY THE DEPRESSION INTERACTING WITH\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 26.3N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 27.4N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 28.8N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 29.8N  42.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 30.7N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 33.5N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 40.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tony","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 23 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED AND BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE BANDING\r\nFEATURES ARE NOW BETTER DEFINED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 35 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE\r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY.\r\n \r\nTONY ONLY HAS A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO STRENGTHEN. THE STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A DRIER AIRMASS AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO TRACK OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C BY LATE WEDNESDAY.\r\nTHESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO LEVEL OFF IN\r\nINTENSITY. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED\r\nN MI NORTHWEST OF TONY IS ANTICIPATED TO INTERACT OR MERGE WITH THE\r\nSYSTEM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS THEREFORE\r\nSHOWN AT 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATION IS NOW PREDICTED TO OCCUR BY\r\nDAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN\r\nAN AMPLIFIED TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO ITS EAST. THE\r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING\r\nTONY TO TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE IN THE MORE ZONAL\r\nFLOW. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST IN A FEW DAYS AS THE\r\nFORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-FT SEAS DENOTED IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY ARE THE RESULT OF\r\nWIND WAVES GENERATED BY TONY INTERACTING WITH SWELL FROM THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 26.7N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 27.7N  47.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 28.8N  44.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 29.9N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 31.1N  38.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 35.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tony","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TONY HAS STRENGTHENED\r\nA BIT THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS SITUATED\r\nJUST BENEATH THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...DUE TO\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...THE CLOUD CANOPY HAS EXPANDED AND\r\nTHE TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -70C.  BASED ON THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nIMPROVEMENT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT...AND ALSO\r\nCORRESPONDS WITH A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  THEN...TONY SHOULD COMMENCE A SPIN DOWN TREND DUE TO THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS.  THE MET-9 RGB AIR MASS\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A COLD STABLE MID-LATITUDE AIR MASS WITH DRY\r\nDESCENDING AIR ALOFT PRECEDING A RAPIDLY APPROACHING FRONTAL\r\nBOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. CONSEQUENTLY...\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST IN 36\r\nHOURS...AND AGREES WITH THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS. DISSIPATION OF THE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND THE 96 HOUR\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/14.  TONY IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN\r\nTHIS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER IN THE STRONG\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. AFTERWARD...TONY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII AT DAY 2 AND 3 HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY BASED ON\r\nINPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 27.4N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 28.5N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 29.7N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 30.7N  38.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 31.9N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 36.0N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tony","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF TONY HAS\r\nINCREASED SOME IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS COMPRISED OF AN ELONGATED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...A\r\nWELL-DEFINED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND A DRY SLOT\r\nFORMING IN BETWEEN.  A 1123 UTC SSMI/S IMAGE SHOWED A PARTIAL\r\nMID-LEVEL EYE BUT SUGGESTED THAT THIS FEATURE WAS WAS DISPLACED A\r\nLITTLE TO NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES\r\nAND UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 2.8.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nTONY IS ENCOUNTERING IN EXCESS OF 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO GREATLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS.\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A FRONTAL ZONE ENCROACHING ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TONY...SUGGESTING THAT\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION HAS LIKELY ALREADY BEGUN OR WILL BEGIN\r\nSOON. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nSHOULD BE COMPLETE IN AS SOON AS 24 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS JUST BELOW THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...\r\nSHOWING TONY AS POST-TROPICAL BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTONY HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 055/17. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EMBEDDED IN A\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE IS A\r\nSPLIT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 36 HOURS...WITH A FEW MODELS\r\nSWINGING TONY AROUND A LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER NORTH\r\nATLANTIC. HOWEVER...A MAJORITY SHOW POST-TROPICAL TONY BYPASSING\r\nTHIS FEATURE AND CONTINUING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST-\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD AFTER 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 28.5N  45.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 29.5N  42.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 30.8N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 32.1N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 33.7N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 37.0N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tony","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED RAPIDLY DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS TAKEN ON A COMMA-LIKE\r\nSHAPE MORE BEFITTING OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY. SATELLITE DATA ALSO SHOW THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 2.5 AND 3.0 FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CI VALUES. THE COLD FRONT SEEN APPROACHING\r\nTONY FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLIER APPEARS TO BE OVERTAKING IT...WITH\r\nRELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nIS UNDERWAY AND WILL BE COMPLETE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LAST ONE...WITH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nNOW SHOWN WITHIN 12 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.\r\n \r\nTONY HAS ACCELERATED FURTHER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n065/22.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE \r\nROTATES CYCLONICALLY AROUND A LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS JUST AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 29.6N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 30.7N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 31.9N  35.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 33.4N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 35.0N  28.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 38.0N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tony","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-10-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 24 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...A STRONG BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE CENTER OF TONY DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nIS MAINTAINING SOME INNER-CORE STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE\r\nBASICALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL WINDS WILL REMAIN 45 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  A COLD FRONT IS TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...ALTHOUGH THIS MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT THE\r\nFRONT EXTENDS FROM IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH IS CAUSING THE FRONT TO BE WEAKENING WITH TIME. \r\nWHILE A COMBINATION OF STRONG  SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS WOULD\r\nNORMALLY WEAKEN TONY PRETTY QUICKLY...THE UPPER-ATMOSPHERE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO COOL QUITE A BIT...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MAINTENANCE\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  ALTHOUGH THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE\r\nQUICK EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...I DO NOT HAVE\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRANSITION TIMING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...070/20. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS STORM\r\nKEEPING THE SAME GENERAL TRACK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH\r\nA SLIGHT DECELERATION AS THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS SOMEWHAT.  A\r\nDEEP LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD THEN TURN TONY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36H...THEN IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST BY 72H AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW\r\nSHOWING MORE OF A POLEWARD MOTION BEFORE IT DISSIPATES WITHIN THE\r\nVERY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 30.1N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 31.1N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 32.3N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 33.5N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 34.5N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 37.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tony","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-10-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012\r\n \r\nMET-9 AND GOES-13 IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TONY IS FINALLY SHOWING\r\nSIGNS OF WEAKENING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nIS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ALSO REFLECT THIS TREND...AND SO DOES THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WHICH IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  CONVERSELY...THE COLD AIR\r\nMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM A MID-LATITUDE\r\nLOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AFFECTED THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY\r\nTONY AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW.  FURTHERMORE...THE SOUTHWESTERLIES\r\nHAVE NOT SUBSTANTIALLY SEPARATED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FROM THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CANOPY...ALTHOUGH A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nWATERS HAS WEAKENED THE DEEP CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY...TONY WILL\r\nREMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST... HOWEVER...WILL STILL CALL FOR TONY TO COMPLETE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER TODAY AS A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST...AND DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS.  A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CERTAINLY HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS...070/20.  TONY IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE PERIPHERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND AGREES WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 30.4N  38.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 31.5N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 32.5N  31.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 33.4N  29.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 34.4N  27.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 37.0N  26.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tony","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-10-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TONY HAS DETERIORATED SINCE LAST\r\nNIGHT.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION  DUE TO NEARLY 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE MAIN CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE\r\nTYPICAL BAROCLINIC LEAF...SUGGESTS THAT EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS\r\nNEARLY COMPLETE. THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED UPON A\r\nBLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  EVEN STRONGER SHEAR\r\nAND MUCH COLDER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE TONY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  TONY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY AND SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW FORMING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/20. EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP LAYER\r\nOF WESTERLY FLOW...TONY IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON AN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 31.0N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 31.6N  33.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 32.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 33.2N  27.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Tony","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-10-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL192012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 25 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF TONY\r\nREMAINS COMPLETELY EXPOSED DUE TO OVER 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS ALSO GRADUALLY BEEN LOSING\r\nDEFINITION AS THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD SEPARATES FARTHER FROM\r\nTHE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nLATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS. GIVEN THE DECAYING STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...TONY IS BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS\r\nADVISORY. POST-TROPICAL TONY SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE\r\nBAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING OF TONY HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/19. TONY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO IN A DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW\r\nOVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE BEFORE\r\nLOSING ITS IDENTITY. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO BUT AGAIN SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 31.2N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 31.8N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 32.5N  28.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 33.2N  25.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-05-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 AM PDT MON MAY 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE DISTURBANCE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS\r\nBEEN GRADUALLY ACQUIRING ORGANIZATION...AND FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY AND AN OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1200 UTC WERE T2.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS NOW ENOUGH CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE SYSTEM. THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST\r\nREPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS...WITH MORE\r\nWEIGHT GIVEN TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS LESS\r\nINTENSIFICATION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/04. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION BEING STEERED ON A WESTWARD COURSE AT A FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER THE EASTERN END OF A\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. AFTER WEAKENING...THE\r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z  9.8N 105.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 10.2N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 10.6N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 10.8N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 11.1N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 11.8N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 12.2N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-05-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED.  THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS HAS PERSISTED AND EXPANDED...\r\nWHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN RECENT HOURS.  THERE IS ALSO\r\nEVIDENCE OF INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING...THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS BELIEVED TO BE LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE NAMED ON THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY PACKAGE.  THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TO INTENSIFY. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL\r\nPASS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...ACCOMPANIED BY A CONSIDERABLE\r\nINCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INCREASING SHEAR\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WHICH\r\nCONTINUES TO FORECAST LESS INTENSIFICATION THAN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 280/07.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING\r\nUNDER THE EASTERN END OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC...WHICH SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION\r\nON A GENERALLY WESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER WEAKENING\r\nCOMMENCES...THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DECREASE...\r\nWITH THE GFS HINTING THAT THE WEAKENED CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nCOULD EVEN TURN EASTWARD INTO AN ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nTHAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BY LATE THIS WEEK. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL NHC IS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.\r\n  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 10.0N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 10.3N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 10.7N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 11.0N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 11.3N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 11.6N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 12.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-05-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 PM PDT MON MAY 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FARTHER EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE AT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nUPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS MODEST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH.  BASED\r\nON THE MODEL PREDICTIONS...ALETTA HAS ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS WITHIN\r\nWHICH TO INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nBEGINS TO ADVERSELY IMPACT THE STORM.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE...AND TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  LGEM INDICATES DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD....AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST CENTER FIXES...INCLUDING ONE FROM A RECENT SSMIS\r\nOVERPASS...ALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER CLIP OR\r\n280/10.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS PREDICTIONS...AND IS NOT FAR FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 10.5N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 10.8N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 11.1N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 11.4N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 11.7N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 12.0N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-05-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT ALETTA'S CLOUD PATTERN\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nEMBEDDED JUST WITHIN THE COLD CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  UW-CIMSS\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WV/IR WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ALETTA IS SITUATED\r\nJUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS CREATING A\r\nDIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  ENHANCED BD-CURVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS RESIDE IN THIS\r\nPARTICULAR QUADRANT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE T2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 24 HOURS BEFORE\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINS TO IMPEDE ANY\r\nFURTHER DEVELOPMENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS...SUGGESTING GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/8...WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LITTLE CHANGE IN MOTION AND\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...AS DEPICTED BY\r\nA MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED\r\nIS FORECAST AS THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STEERING CURRENT WEAKEN IN\r\nRESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY A REPRODUCTION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND\r\nTHE FSSE SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 10.8N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 11.1N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 11.4N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 11.6N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 11.9N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 12.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 13.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-05-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ALETTA HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 12\r\nHOURS OR SO. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITH THE CENTER APPARENTLY ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 FROM BOTH\r\nSAB AND TAFB AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN MAINTAINED AT\r\n35 KT.  ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nOVER WARM SSTS THAT COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE 12 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...AN APPROACHING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE AN INCREASE\r\nIN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INCREASING SHEAR AND SOME DRIER AIR\r\nTHAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO INITIATE WEAKENING WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.  ALETTA IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nALETTA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/8 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT REMAINS SOUTH OF A STRONG\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONSIDERABLE SLOWING OF THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THERE IS SOME SPREAD AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME AS SOME OF THE MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD BY THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.  FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ALLETTA\r\nMAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\nHOWEVER... THE UPDATED FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 3 AND 4...IN DEFERENCE TO THE SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED SHOWN BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 10.6N 109.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 11.0N 111.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 11.3N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 11.6N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 12.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 12.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 13.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-05-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE IMPROVED AROUND THE TIME OF\r\nTHE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A 1528 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGE SHOWED A BAND OF CONVECTION THAT WRAPPED AROUND THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  VERY RECENTLY...A NEW BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  OBJECTIVE\r\nAND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3.0 YIELD AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR\r\nMARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n12 HOUR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME\r\nDRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE CYCLONE.  THE GFS\r\nAND SHIPS OUTPUT SUGGEST A LITTLE LESS SHEAR THAN THE ECMWF AND\r\nUKMET MODELS WHICH SHOW STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nIMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE LATTER TWO\r\nMODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nALETTA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS LOCATED WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN.  THERE IS NOW CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE ECMWF TURNS ALETTA NORTHWARD\r\nAND THEN EASTWARD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE GFS AND UKMET SHOW ALETTA MOVING FARTHER\r\nWESTWARD BEFORE DECELERATING AND TURNING NORTHWARD.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nOVERALL TRENDS OF THESE MODELS IS TOWARD THE EAST.  BECAUSE OF\r\nTHIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWED DOWN AND SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS/UKMET MODELS.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST LIES SIGNIFICANTLY WEST OF THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ADDITIONAL EASTWARD SHIFTS MAY BE\r\nREQUIRED IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 11.2N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 11.4N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 11.8N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 11.9N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 12.3N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 12.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 13.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-05-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE MAY 15 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...ALETTA HAS\r\nRECENTLY BECOME RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING.  BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nBECOME ILL-DEFINED...AND ARC CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EMANATING FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH IS USUALLY INDICATIVE\r\nOF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ENTERING THE CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM.  THE LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO\r\nTHE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ALETTA IMPLIES A MORE STABLE AND DRIER\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD\r\nCAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nCLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN\r\n285/9.  ALL OF THE RECENT DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE NOW SHOW A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR TO THE EAST AS SOME OF\r\nTHE MODELS AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 11.7N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 12.0N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 12.4N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 12.7N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 13.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-05-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE\r\nCENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES BUT RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SUGGEST THAT IT COULD BE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN AREA\r\nOF CONVECTION. NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AWAY FROM\r\nTHE ALLEGED CENTER...BUT ARE NOT SHOWING ANY SIGNS OF INCREASING\r\nORGANIZATION. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE BECOMING ADVERSE FOR INTENSIFICATION AS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND DRY AIR APPROACHES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING...CLOSE TO THE RATE SUGGESTED BY THE LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE\r\nIS 285/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NEW GUIDANCE\r\nINSISTS ON A TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS\r\nAS ALETTA BECOMES STEERED BY THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK WAS\r\nALREADY INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST AND IS\r\nEMPHASIZED IN THIS ONE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MEANDERS INSTEAD AS IT DEGENERATES\r\nINTO A REMANT LOW.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 11.9N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 12.0N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 12.4N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 12.8N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 13.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 14.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 15.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-05-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 AM PDT WED MAY 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ALETTA DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nDIFFERENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR SOME NEW\r\nCONVECTIVE GROWTH NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. INTERESTINGLY...THE\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT SUGGESTIVE\r\nOF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSED BY THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE\r\nSAME AS EARLIER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT. THE\r\nENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nUNFAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO INGEST A MUCH DRIER...STABLE AIR MASS AND BE AFFECTED\r\nBY PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. THESE NEGATIVE\r\nFACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY OR PERHAPS EVEN RAPID WEAKENING\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW INDICATES THAT\r\nALETTA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ALETTA WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE OVERNIGHT...BUT A 1145\r\nUTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED FARTHER SOUTH\r\nTHAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08...AND\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. ALETTA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER 12\r\nHOURS OR SO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE COMBINATION OF A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE AND ANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH\r\nOF MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN EASTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT AFTER THAT IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nAT THOSE TIMES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 11.8N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 12.1N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 12.6N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 13.0N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 13.5N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 14.1N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 14.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-05-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME DISORGANIZED OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW CONSISTS OF A SHRINKING BALL OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A DISCONNECTED BAND TO THE EAST.\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...INDICATIVE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nMAY FINALLY BE TAKING A TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 2.5 AT 1800 UTC...IT APPEARS AS IF A WEAKENING\r\nTREND MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED A BIT\r\nSINCE A 1643 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A COUPLE OF 40-KT VECTORS.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nPERSISTING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS ALETTA MOVES INTO A\r\nREGION DOMINATED BY AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS. \r\nTHESE TWO SIGNIFICANT NEGATIVE FACTORS SHOULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR ALETTA TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES FROM SEVERAL MICROWAVE PASSES THIS MORNING AND RECENT\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ALETTA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING\r\nA MORE WESTERLY MOTION...270/08...THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORIES.  UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...\r\nALETTA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE STORM ERODING AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS SOUTH OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK OF THE STORM TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD WITHIN 36 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST AS IT BECOME EMBEDDED IN\r\nANOMALOUS LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF MAINLAND MEXICO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS AND A BIT MORE EASTWARD/FASTER AT LATER FORECAST TIMES...IN\r\nLINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT\r\nPASS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 11.4N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 11.7N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 12.4N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 13.1N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 13.6N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 14.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 14.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-05-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO HAVE A DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE ON\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. \r\nA STRONG BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER A SMALL\r\nAREA JUST NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON DVORAK RULES AND THE ASCAT PASS\r\nFROM EARLIER TODAY...WHICH INDICATED THAT ALETTA WAS A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN IT LOOKED.  DRY AIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO\r\nTAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ALETTA SHOULD WEAKEN TO\r\nA TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN 48 HOURS OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MOST RECENT LGEM RUN AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD...280/8...FOR THE TIME BEING.  A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  AFTERWARDS...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IS LIKELY TO CARRY ALETTA...OR ITS\r\nREMNANT...EASTWARD OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS\r\nIDENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 11.5N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 12.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 12.6N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 13.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 13.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 14.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 13.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-05-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012\r\n \r\nCORRECTED STATUS AT 96H IN TABLE\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS VANISHED AND ONLY A FEW SMALL CELLS REMAIN\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...WHICH IN FACT...IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. A\r\nRECENT ASCT PASS MEASURED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ONLY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE AND GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN...OR THE LACK\r\nOF...ALETTA HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. DRY\r\nAIR AND SOUTHERLY SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE\r\nCYCLONE RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...PERHAPS FASTER THAN\r\nINDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 295/03. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL SOON\r\nDEVELOP SOUTH OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION OF THE CYCLONE LATER TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD DRIFT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 11.7N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 12.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 12.5N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 13.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 13.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-05-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012\r\n \r\nDURING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...A NEW BURST OF SHOWERS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER\r\nOF ALETTA.  THE BURST IS LIKELY TO BE TRANSIENT...AS ALETTA IS\r\nEXPERIENCING 20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR TO THE WEST BEING ENTRAINED INTO\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  BASED ON THIS COMBINATION...ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H OR LESS.  ONE CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY IS TO ADD A 96 H POINT...AS THE LATEST DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL RUNS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW REMAINING IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/4.  ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 H...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS A LARGER\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING MECHANISM.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 12.1N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 12.4N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 12.8N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 13.3N 114.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 13.5N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 13.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 12.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-05-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN RAGGED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER OF ALETTA\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION CAN\r\nPERSIST IS UNCERTAIN...SINCE ALETTA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE \r\n20 KT OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR\r\nLESS.  FINAL DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 72-96 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW\r\nBECOMES ABSORBED BY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nALETTA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/5.  ALETTA IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nOR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND EASTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOR SOUTH AS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE BECOMES THE MAIN STEERING\r\nMECHANISM.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 13.1N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 13.4N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 13.8N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 14.0N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 13.9N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 12.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-05-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 PM PDT THU MAY 17 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION INCREASED OVER AND AROUND THE CENTER OF ALETTA A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE ON THE WANE.  THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES TO LACK BANDING FEATURES...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB GIVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND VERY DRY AIR LIES\r\nJUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  AS THIS AIR BECOMES MORE\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ALETTA...CONVECTION SHOULD\r\nDIMINISH ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN A DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR\r\nSOONER AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS\r\nEAST.\r\n\r\nTHE HEADING OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO VEER TO THE RIGHT...\r\nWITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW ABOUT 020/5.  STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE WEAK AND THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THAT ALETTA\r\nOR ITS REMNANT WILL TURN EASTWARD DUE TO LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nAND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A LARGER\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 13.6N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 13.9N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 14.1N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 14.1N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 13.7N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 12.8N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-05-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND DRY AIR...ALETTA\r\nHAS SURVIVED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND IN FACT...\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORTED TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AT\r\n0600Z. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY\r\nBECAUSE SINCE THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION...CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEGUN TO DIMINISH.  THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL EXPECTED\r\nTO PREVAIL...SO I HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST WEAKENING. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN 3-4 DAYS OR SOONER AS IT\r\nBECOMES ABSORBED INTO A LARGE DEVELOPING CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT\r\n3 KNOTS. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY DIVERGENT...PROBABLY MEANING\r\nTHAT THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS\r\nTHAT ALETTA OR ITS REMANTS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND THEN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW OF A THE LARGE CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION WHICH ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING EAST OF ALETTA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 13.8N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 14.0N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 14.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 14.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 13.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 12.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-05-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012\r\n\r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ALETTA IS\r\nEXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO 20-25 KT OF\r\nSOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n30 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 30 KT.  THE COMBINATION OF CONTINUED SHEAR AND MID/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DECAY INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12-24 H...WITH THE REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED\r\nBY A LARGER DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IN 72-96 H.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/5.  ALETTA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 H AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 14.2N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 14.4N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 14.4N 112.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 14.0N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 13.1N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 11.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-05-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ALETTA REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SEVERAL\r\nCLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO 25 KT OF SOUTHERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM\r\nSAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWS A FEW\r\n25-30 KT VECTORS EAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS AGAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE COMBINATION OF\r\nCONTINUED SHEAR AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOULD CAUSE ALETTA TO DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS...WITH THE REMNANTS BEING ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nDISTURBANCE TO THE EAST IN 48-72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/3.  ALETTA REMAINS IN AN AREA OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.  THE DEPRESSION OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST BECOMES THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 14.4N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 14.5N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 14.2N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 13.6N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 12.7N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-05-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI MAY 18 2012\r\n \r\nALETTA HAS ONE WEAKENING PATCH OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SO IT STILL QUALIFIES...ALBEIT BARELY...AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  CONTINUED\r\nSTRONG SHEAR AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AS\r\nSEEN IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...SHOULD LEAD TO THE\r\nDEMISE OF THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TOMORROW.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD...045/03...IN A\r\nREGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE OR REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN EASTWARD...AND THEN\r\nSOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 14.5N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 14.5N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 14.0N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 13.3N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 12.4N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-05-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012\r\n \r\nALETTA CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS IN THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. DUE TO PREVAILING\r\nSHEAR AND DRY AIR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nALETTA IS DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO MEANDER\r\nSOUTHWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 14.6N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 14.5N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 14.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 13.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 12.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Aletta","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-05-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP012012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT MAY 19 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ABOUT 60 TO 90 N MI TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER OF ALETTA...THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS NOT\r\nENOUGH TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...\r\nALETTA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12\r\nHOURS. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW\r\nAND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FUTURE\r\nINFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF ALETTA PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. \r\n\r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING EAST-NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY...AND\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT GENERAL\r\nDIRECTION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 14.8N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 14.4N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 13.5N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 12.7N 112.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-05-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN MAY 20 2012\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS\r\nWELL SOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS SUFFICIENT CENTER DEFINITION AND\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND...CONSISTENT WITH MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB.\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM WATERS THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE FIRST DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT...AND THEN STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIS SHOWN AS THE CYCLONE TURNS NORTHWARD...MOVES TOWARD COOLER\r\nWATERS AND ENCOUNTERS A LITTLE STRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE HWRF THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS AND CLOSER TO THE LGEM AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/04...AS THE CENTER\r\nWAS NOT VERY WELL DEFINED EARLIER IN THE DAY. A SLOW WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE\r\nDEPRESSION MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EAST\r\nPACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE WILL TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS LEFT BY THE RETREATING PACIFIC RIDGE. A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ARE EXPECTED DURING\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nAMPLIFYING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA...WHICH SHOULD\r\nIMPART INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE EAST OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE FAST MOTION\r\nOF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SEEMS A BIT UNREALISTIC...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE SLOWER ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS PARALLEL\r\nTHROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS\r\nARE 175 TO 225 MILES. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z  9.3N  99.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z  9.5N 100.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 10.2N 100.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 11.0N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 12.0N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 13.5N 103.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 17.5N 101.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-05-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PART\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION HAS PROPAGATED WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER WHILE A\r\nNEW BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE LARGE DEPRESSION.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CIRCULATION IS NOT\r\nVERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED WELL TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION DUE TO MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT...WHICH IS A\r\nCOMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND\r\nTAFB...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOULD BE GRADUAL. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE AND THE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY AT A FASTER RATE AS SHOWN\r\nBY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  IN FACT...ALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/6. THE\r\nDEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS AS IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS\r\nTHE RIDGE WEAKENS AND A TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY\r\nDURING THE 72-120 HOUR TIME PERIOD WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO TURN NORTHWARD...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES ON HOW FAR WEST THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL MOVE BEFORE RECURVING. OVERALL...THE 0000 UTC MODEL\r\nRUNS HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH THE GFS PARALLEL AND UKMET MODELS\r\nALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE AND THE GFDL...HWRF...AND\r\nGFS ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD AND LIES ALONG EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\n   \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS\r\nARE 175 TO 225 MILES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z  9.4N 100.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z  9.7N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 10.5N 101.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 11.6N 103.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 12.7N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 15.0N 104.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 17.0N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 19.0N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-05-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 AM PDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWITH NO DISTINCT PATTERN...AND THEY ARE REVOLVING AROUND A CENTER\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  MICROWAVE DATA HAS SUGGESTED\r\nTHAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...BUT\r\nUNTIL WE GET SOME ADDITIONAL VISIBLE IMAGES NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE\r\nBEING MADE.  DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nT2.0...AND THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD WITH A LONG-TERM MOTION OF 270/7 KT\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO...BUT THE HIGH IS NOT THAT STRONG AND IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nREPLACED BY A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY.  AS A RESULT OF\r\nTHIS...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...AND THEN RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO BY FRIDAY WHEN\r\nA LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD...AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST LIES ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF.  DESPITE THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...\r\nTHE MODELS ARE MORE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THAN USUAL...ESPECIALLY AT 72\r\nAND 96 HOURS...AND THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nWILL RECURVE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE SHORT TERM SINCE\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS NOT YET COALESCED AROUND THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION DUE TO DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND\r\nINCREASING OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.  THE FORECAST\r\nINTENSITIES SHOWN BY THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS DIVERGE AFTER ABOUT\r\n12 HOURS...WITH SHIPS BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL MODELS THROUGH\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY CLOSER TO THE\r\nSHIPS SOLUTION AT 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...NEARLY ALL THE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES A DECREASE IN INTENSITY...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS AT\r\nTHE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE.\r\n \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS\r\nARE 175 TO 225 MILES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z  9.2N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z  9.6N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 10.6N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 11.8N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 12.9N 105.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 15.0N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 19.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-05-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nA 1640 UTC ASCAT PASS HAS MADE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MORE\r\nREADILY APPARENT...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS A BIT OF A NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT.  THE ASCAT DATA IS ALSO SHOWING WINDS NO HIGHER THAN\r\n25-30 KT...SO THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nTHE ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER LOCATION HAS RESULTED IN A LONG-TERM\r\nMOTION OF 290/5 KT.  THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD TURN AS A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER MEXICO.  THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5...WITH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF \r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE MAY NOT BE FULLY PICKED UP BY A\r\nDEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND\r\nINSTEAD SLOWS DOWN AND STALLS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SYSTEM PLOWING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS\r\nMEXICO...AND THOSE SOLUTIONS ARE DISREGARDED.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO...ENDING UP ALONG THE COAST ON DAY 5.\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND THE ANTICIPATED INTENSIFICATION OF THE DEPRESSION MAY\r\nBEGIN SOON.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX HAS\r\nINCREASED TO 56 PERCENT FOR THE 25-KT THRESHOLD AND 40 PERCENT FOR\r\nTHE 30-KT THRESHOLD DUE TO THE SEEMINGLY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST THEREFORE INDICATES THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A HURRICANE BY\r\n36 HOURS...WHICH IS CLOSE TO WHAT IS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND HWRF.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY AROUND 72 HOURS...BUT THERE\r\nIS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THE CYCLONE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN SOME FASHION BY THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND AND NOW\r\nINDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE A HURRICANE ON DAY 5. \r\nBUT...AS ALREADY STATED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. \r\n \r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK FORECAST...\r\nESPECIALLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 WHERE AVERAGE NHC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS\r\nARE 175 TO 225 MILES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z  9.6N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 10.2N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 11.3N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 13.6N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 15.5N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 17.0N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 18.0N 102.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...ON THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-05-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 PM PDT MON MAY 21 2012\r\n \r\nWHILE THE OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS MORE\r\nORGANIZED THAN SEVERAL HOURS AGO...MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS TO THE EAST OF A LARGE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nSINCE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS\r\nAGO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.  IT SEEMS PROBABLE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SOON BECOME A TROPICAL STORM...ALTHOUGH\r\nEARLIER ASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nIS ELONGATED TO THE WEST.  THIS STRUCTURE...ALONG WITH A\r\nCONTINUATION OF EASTERLY SHEAR...COULD SLOW THE SHORT-TERM\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...ALL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH\r\nA LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE SITUATED NEAR OR NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...CAUSING SHEAR TO DIMINISH.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nFAST RATE OF STRENGTHENING AFTER 24 HOURS...AND ENDS UP CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL AT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND DAY 3...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nCOULD INCREASE AND SOME WEAKENING IS SHOWN...WHICH IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER NOW...ABOUT\r\n290/8.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nTRACK CHANGING TO NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST ON\r\nWEDNESDAY AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES DUE TO\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE DEPTH OF A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT SLOWER AND\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ONE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE...AND\r\nFURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE IF MODEL TRENDS\r\nCONTINUE. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST AFTER DAY 3...AND LARGE\r\nERRORS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z  9.8N 101.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 10.5N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 11.6N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 12.7N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 13.8N 105.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 17.5N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 18.0N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-05-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A\r\nLARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nIS LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN MASS OF CONVECTION DUE\r\nTO MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE ASCAT DATA SHOWED 30 TO 35 KT\r\nWINDS IN A SMALL AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS DATA THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...\r\nTHE SECOND OF THE 2012 EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.\r\n\r\nTHE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD FROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY TODAY.  BY\r\nTONIGHT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS\r\nNEAR OR JUST EAST OF BUD.  NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nBRINGS BUD TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AND SO DOES\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nINDUCE SOME WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS...BUT THE NHC FORECAST\r\nSHOWS LESS WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT 96 AND 120\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF ASCAT PASSES DURING THE PAST\r\n12-18 HOURS SHOWS THAT BUD IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER...295/10 KT. \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER\r\nTODAY AS A WEAKNESS DEVELOPS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  BUD IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DEEPENS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND BECOMES QUITE LARGE.  THERE ARE\r\nBASICALLY TWO CAMPS OF MODELS IN THE LONG RANGE...THOSE THAT SHOW A\r\nDEEPER TROUGH WHICH CAUSES BUD TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO\r\nMEXICO...AND A SECOND GROUP THAT TURNS BUD NORTHEASTWARD...BUT\r\nSHOWS THE CYCLONE DECELERATING AS IT NEARS SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. \r\nFOR NOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION\r\nWHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nWITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF BUD...THIS IS THE EARLIEST DATE ON RECORD\r\nFOR THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN THE EAST PACIFIC. IT\r\nSURPASSES THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST DATE OF MAY 29.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 10.4N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 11.3N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 12.4N 105.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 13.3N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 14.3N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 16.3N 105.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 17.5N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-05-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012\r\n \r\nWITHOUT RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...IT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE\r\nCENTER OF BUD.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED PRIMARILY ON AN\r\nEXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH DOES KEEP THE CENTER\r\nALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  MANUAL AND\r\nAUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL YIELD AN INTENSITY AROUND 35\r\nKT...AND THAT WILL REMAIN THE INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11 KT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IS RETREATING WESTWARD...AND BUD IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT THERE IS MORE DIVERGENCE IN THE\r\nMODELS FROM 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.  BUD SHOULD STILL TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 3 WHEN IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEPENING\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...BUT SEVERAL OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...PREVENTING\r\nBUD FROM REACHING THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE ECMWF IS THE BIGGEST\r\nOUTLIER ON DAY 3...BEING SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MAIN\r\nCLUSTER OF MODELS...BUT THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TRENDING\r\nTOWARDS BUD STALLING BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS BASED\r\nON A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ON THOSE DAYS.\r\n\r\nAPPROXIMATELY 10-15 KT OF DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO\r\nAFFECT BUD.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT\r\nWILL BE DECREASING DURING THAT PERIOD AS THE STORM MOVES FARTHER\r\nNORTH.  THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IN PARTICULAR CONTINUES TO TONE\r\nDOWN THE AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTICS SHOW\r\nRELATIVELY WARM UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE BIGGEST\r\nLIMITING FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE PEAK INTENSITY SHOWN IN THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT STILL\r\nSHOWS BUD REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. \r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE STAYING OFF\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH THE COAST. \r\nWIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN ERRORS STILL SHOW\r\nA 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS\r\nIN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...COLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 11.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 11.9N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 12.8N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 13.7N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 14.6N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 18.0N 104.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 18.0N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-05-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012\r\n \r\nBUD CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED BENEATH A RECENT BLOW-UP OF CONVECTION.  A\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...BUT AN APPARENT DRY SLOT HAS WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED\r\nFROM EARLIER TODAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n \r\nBUD HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD AND SPED UP A BIT WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 305/12 KT.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST\r\nREASONING...AND THE CYCLONE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THAT TIME...BUT THE ENVELOPE\r\nOF SOLUTIONS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nTHROUGH DAY 3 IS LIKEWISE NUDGED TO THE WEST...LYING ON THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS...THE\r\nMODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION OF BUD WILL BE IMPEDED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE NHC DAY 4 AND 5 FORECAST\r\nPOSITIONS ARE NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND KEEP\r\nTHE CENTER OF BUD OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE ANALYZED VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT THAT BELLIGERENT AT THE\r\nMOMENT...AND IT IS SOMEWHAT OF A QUANDARY WHY BUD HAS NOT BEEN ABLE\r\nTO STRENGTHEN.  THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX FURTHER OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...BUT THE AMOUNT OF TIME AVAILABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS DECREASING.  ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THAT MAY BE\r\nA DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 250 MB THAT WILL BE\r\nIMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION IN A FEW DAYS...AS\r\nSHOWN BY FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE VORTEX WEAKENING AS IT HEADS\r\nTOWARD MEXICO...AND THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS BUD\r\nTO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS BUD\r\nGRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS FOLLOWED\r\nBY WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THIS SOLUTION IS HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL FORECAST TIMES.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAKER CYCLONE\r\nSTAYING OFF THE MEXICAN COAST...EFFECTS FROM BUD COULD STILL REACH\r\nTHE COAST.  WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES BASED ON NHC 5-YEAR MEAN\r\nERRORS STILL SHOW A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS AT COASTAL LOCATIONS IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF JALISCO...\r\nCOLIMA...AND MICHOACAN.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 12.0N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 12.6N 106.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 13.5N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 14.4N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 15.4N 106.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 18.5N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-05-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nBUD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...A 2243 UTC TRMM OVERPASS\r\nSUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NEW\r\nCONVECTIVE GROWTH.  THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NOR HAVE SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WHICH ARE AT T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE\r\nLACK OF CHANGE SINCE THAT TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n35 KT.\r\n \r\nIT REMAINS A BIT PUZZLING AS TO WHY BUD HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE\r\nCURRENT SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO INDICATE LESS SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER BUD THAN WHAT THE CURRENT CLOUD PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST. \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE TRAVERSING WARM WATERS\r\nAND ENCOUNTERING EVEN LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING. AS BUD\r\nAPPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY\r\nTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR IMPINGING\r\nON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE A DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nFLOW FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH\r\nCOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AT THAT TIME. THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND NO LONGER CALLS FOR BUD TO BECOME A HURRICANE. THE NEW\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AT NEARLY ALL\r\nTIMES.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/12.  BUD SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN\r\n24-48 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE SLOWING DOWN AND\r\nTURNING NORTHWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALONG\r\n107W AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nA DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AS BUD\r\nAPPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 72-120 HOURS...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD COME TO A HALT AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A\r\nPRESUMABLY WEAKER AND INCREASINGLY SHALLOWER SYSTEM BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AROUND A RIDGE TO ITS WEST. \r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS NOW ON\r\nTHE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 72 HOURS AND\r\nREPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS ON DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 12.9N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 13.7N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.5N 107.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 15.4N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 18.5N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 18.5N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-05-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BUD HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATED IN\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT.  A FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES\r\nFROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN T2.5 AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT\r\nSURPRISING THAT BUD HAS NOT INTENSIFIED AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.\r\nOVERALL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS\r\nCERTAINLY LESS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING BUD AND NOW THE ONLY\r\nMODEL THAT SHOWS SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS THE GFDL.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS...BUT SHOWS A SLIGHTLY LOWER PEAK INTENSITY THAN\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN 2-3 DAYS...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS...AND DRIER AIR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10.  IT APPEARS THAT BUD IS\r\nBEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS EXPECTED.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE LATER TODAY AS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENS.  IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  AS\r\nBUD MOVES NORTHEASTWARD IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM.  AFTER THIS OCCURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD...THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nNORTHEASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LIES BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME \r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON KEEPING THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nOFFSHORE...THERE IS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FUTURE TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY OF BUD THAT INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 13.3N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 14.9N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 15.7N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 16.8N 106.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 18.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 18.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 18.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-05-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 AM PDT WED MAY 23 2012\r\n \r\nRECENT 0843 UTC AMSU-B AND 1055 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOW\r\nTHAT BUD HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER ENCIRCLED BY A RING OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...SO IT WOULD SEEM THAT THE CYCLONE IS FINALLY\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 AND 45\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE UW-CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nOF ABOUT 50 KT...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE ASSUMING A CENTER TOO FAR TO\r\nTHE EAST.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF AMSU ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN\r\nINTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nTHEREFORE RAISED TO 55 KT AS A CONSENSUS OF THE VARIOUS ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nBUD IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...OR 310/8 KT...INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS\r\nDUE TO A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nHOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE LOWER\r\nMISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THAT FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE BUD TO STALL OFF\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST BY 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL ENDS UP A LITTLE CLOSER\r\nTO THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST ONLY DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nNEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR BUD HAS BEEN DIFFICULT. \r\nBECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS NOW STRENGTHENING...THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST REQUIRES AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT AND AGAIN BRINGS BUD TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE CYCLONE PEAKING NEAR\r\n70-75 KT IN 24-36 HOURS...AND THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER DAY 2 DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR AND POSSIBLE INGESTION OF DRIER AIR FROM THE\r\nWEST INTO THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC FORECAST ON DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE\r\nLGEM.\r\n\r\nTHE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AT LOCATIONS ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS NOT DECREASED...AND INTERESTS IN\r\nTHAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 13.4N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 14.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 14.7N 108.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 16.8N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 17.0N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-05-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH BUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO AN ELONGATED\r\nSPIRAL BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.  TWO SEPARATE CIRA AMSU ESTIMATES OF WIND\r\nRADII FROM THIS MORNING ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WIND FIELD\r\nIS LARGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.\r\n \r\nBUD HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 325/6 KT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL TURN NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nA BUILDING MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL THEN CAUSE\r\nBUD TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST ON DAY 3.  THERE HAS\r\nNOT BEEN ANY APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...AND THE\r\nUPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\nTHE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MODEL THAT MOST CLOSELY APPROACHES\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEREFORE LEANS ON\r\nTHE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  ON DAYS 4 AND 5...A\r\nSLOW SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE GFS AND ECMWF IS FAVORED\r\nOVER THE NORTHWARD MOTION TOWARDS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA SHOWN BY\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF.\r\n \r\nBUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 48\r\nHOURS OR SO...SO GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C.  AFTER 48 HOURS...A\r\nCOMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR...ENVIRONMENTAL DRY AIR...WARM\r\n200/250 MB TEMPERATURES...AND COOLER SSTS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE\r\nWEAKENING.  IN FACT...ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING INDICATED BY THE\r\nLGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BUD.  BUD IS GROWING IN SIZE...AND EVEN IF\r\nTHE CENTER DOES NOT REACH THE COAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nAND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD STILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE JALISCO...\r\nCOLIMA...AND MICHOACAN COASTS ON SATURDAY.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 16.7N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 17.8N 106.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 18.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-05-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 23 2012\r\n \r\nBUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY ORGANIZE. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nREVEALED THE FORMATION OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTED AT A\r\nFORMATIVE BANDING-TYPE EYE. OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN\r\nINCREASING. IN ADDITION...A 0050 UTC SSMIS PASS INDICATED A\r\nCLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nWERE A CONSENSUS T3.5 AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES IN THE NEWLY-FORMED CDO HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH\r\nA WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY APPEARING. THE LATEST 3-HOURLY AVERAGED\r\nADT VALUES HAVE ALSO INCREASED TO T4.2.  BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS..\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT.\r\n \r\nOVER WARM WATERS AND IN A LIGHT-SHEAR AND RELATIVELY MOIST\r\nENVIRONMENT...BUD SHOULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH SHORTLY. BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND SOME MARGINAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nLIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK TO SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO IN 48-72 HOURS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION\r\nAND AN EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN PREDICTED. EITHER THE LESS\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OR INTERACTION WITH THE MEXICAN COAST SHOULD\r\nCONTRIBUTE TO WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE OFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSEST TO THE FSSE MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK OF BUD HAS BENT TO THE\r\nRIGHT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE NOW 350/05.  RESPONDING TO\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...BUD\r\nHAS GRADUALLY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AT A CONSIDERABLY SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nCOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD\r\nFROM THE BAJA PENINSULA.  IN 48-72 HOURS...THE CENTER OF BUD IS\r\nFORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND SLOW DOWN\r\nFURTHER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT AND LEAVES THE\r\nCYCLONE IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING.  THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF BUD WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE COAST AROUND THIS TIME...POSSIBLY EVEN ONSHORE. THESE MODELS\r\nTHEN DEPICT A WEAKER AND SHALLOWER SYSTEM...POSSIBLY AS THE RESULT\r\nOF ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...BEING STEERED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO WHILE THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING NORTHWARD.  THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE SPREAD INCREASES\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY THEREAFTER.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO\r\nDISSIMILAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS LARGELY A BLEND OF THE\r\nWEAKER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.2N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 15.0N 107.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 16.1N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 17.5N 106.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 18.4N 105.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 19.0N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 18.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 18.0N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-05-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT BUD HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO QUICKLY ORGANIZE.  A WELL-DEFINED EYE WAS SEEN IN THE\r\nLAST COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES BETWEEN 0300-0500 UTC...AND MORE\r\nRECENTLY A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM UW/CIMSS HAVE INCREASED\r\nTO T4.6 AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5\r\nAND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nBUD APPEARS TO HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS IN FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...COOLER WATERS...INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND A DRIER\r\nAND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.  AS BUD\r\nAPPROACHES SOUTHWEST MEXICO...LAND INTERACTION IS LIKELY TO\r\nHASTEN THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT TERM DUE TO THE HIGHER INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.  THEREAFTER...IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND IS CLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBUD HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH OVERNIGHT...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 010/6.  THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nUNITED STATES.  AS BUD APPROACHES THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. \r\nHOWEVER...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONGER\r\nCYCLONE MOVING MORE QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO MEXICO.  THE TYPICALLY\r\nRELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST BUD IS LIKELY TO DECOUPLE\r\nWITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER CONTINUING NORTHWARD...WHILE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nRELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER\r\nTHERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST AS THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE NEW FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF\r\nMEXICO.  BECAUSE OF THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK\r\nAND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED\r\nFOR THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST\r\nOF SOUTHWEST MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 15.0N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 15.9N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 17.1N 106.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 18.2N 106.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 18.9N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 19.0N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 18.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-05-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 24 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ITS INFRARED SIGNATURE IS A LITTLE RAGGED...BUD HAS A\r\nWARMING EYE ALMOST COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -60C.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T5.0...AND\r\nTHE UW-CIMSS ADT IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER AT T5.2.  THE INTENSITY IS\r\nTHEREFORE RAISED TO 90 KT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY INTO BUD THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE\r\nVALUABLE DATA ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. \r\n \r\nBUD HAS ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE\r\nIT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND DRIER MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nAIR.  IN FACT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE\r\nWEST OF THE HURRICANE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND LIMITING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\nALSO...BUD WILL BE SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...\r\nAND SINCE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE RATHER LOW OFF THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST...THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO\r\nMIX COLDER WATER TO THE SURFACE.  GIVEN THESE CONSIDERATIONS...A BIT\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED\r\nBY GRADUAL WEAKENING TO TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY BY 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS CLOSELY\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN ROUGHLY MIMICS THE WEAKENING\r\nTREND SHOWN BY THE LGEM MODEL.  THIS FORECAST ONLY DIFFERS FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...AND BY SHOWING BUD\r\nDEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nBUD HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n030 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL HEADING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...BUT BUD IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nBECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR OR JUST OFF THE MEXICAN COAST.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS.  THERE IS MORE DISAGREEMENT AFTER 48 HOURS...\r\nWITH THE HWRF AND GFDL ACCELERATING BUD TO THE NORTH...THE GFS\r\nBRINGING THE HURRICANE SLOWLY INLAND...AND THE ECMWF TURNING IT\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  IN FAVOR OF CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS...THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND\r\nSTILL SHOWS BUD GETTING PRECARIOUSLY CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST ON\r\nDAY 3.\r\n \r\nDUE TO FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY UNCERTAINTIES...THERE IS STILL A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE COAST ON\r\nSATURDAY.  DEPENDING ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WARNING\r\nCOULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 15.7N 106.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 17.7N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 18.7N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 19.0N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 18.0N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/1200Z 17.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-05-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING\r\nBUD...AND ON THE FIRST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER THE PLANE MEASURED A\r\nMAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 108 KT AND A MAXIMUM SFMR\r\nESTIMATE OF 89 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THE PLANE COULD FIND STRONGER WINDS ONCE IT FLIES\r\nTHROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nBUD HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN AS HAD BEEN SHOWN BY THE MODELS.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 8 KT...AND BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES.  SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS NOT SLOWED DOWN...THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER WILL REACH\r\nTHE COASTLINE BEFORE IT IS IMPEDED BY A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN AND SHOWS THE CENTER\r\nOF THE CYCLONE REACHING THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEVEN IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND STRONGER WINDS...THE HURRICANE STILL\r\nHAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.\r\nDUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND PROBABLE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR TO ITS WEST...BUD IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING BY\r\n24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS ALL BRING\r\nBUD TO THE COAST AS A HURRICANE...AND THAT IS SHOWN IN THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  FASTER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR ONCE THE CENTER\r\nMOVES INLAND...AND THE FORECAST SHOWS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER.  IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCOMPLETELY DISSIPATE THE VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE IN\r\n3-4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE FORECAST BRINGS BUD TO THE COAST AS A HURRICANE...THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST\r\nFROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 16.4N 106.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 17.4N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 19.8N 105.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 20.5N 105.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 19.5N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 19.0N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-05-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BUD HAS\r\nEVOLVED INTO AN ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH LITTLE TO NO OUTER BANDING\r\nFEATURES. DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING\r\nWITH AN EYE BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...T5.5/102 KT FROM SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES HAVE BEEN\r\nAVERAGING T5.7/107 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS. ALSO...AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ON ITS FINAL OUTBOUND LEG\r\nOBSERVED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 120 KT IN THE EASTERN\r\nQUADRANT. SFMR SURFACE WINDS IN THAT SAME AREA WERE ONLY AROUND 85\r\nKT...WHICH IS MUCH LOWER THAN ONE WOULD EXPECT USING THE STANDARD\r\n90 PERCENT REDUCTION FACTOR. THIS WAS LIKELY DUE TO SOME\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TILT TO AND ELONGATION OF THE EYE...AND THE LACK OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS\r\nINCREASED MARKEDLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A 24/2229Z TRMM\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED A CIRCULAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 NMI DIAMETER.\r\nALTHOUGH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT...\r\nTHERE IS LIKELY ENOUGH CONVECTION TO MIX DOWN AT LEAST 85 PERCENT\r\nOF THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MAKING BUD A 100-KT\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030 DEGREES AT 9 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nTO ITS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS WEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON BUD\r\nMAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN 24-30\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH THE\r\nGFS AND THE REGIONAL MODELS TAKING BUD INLAND OVER MEXICO WHILE THE \r\nECMWF AND UKMET BRING THE EXPECTED REMNANTS OF BUD BACK OVER WATER\r\nBY 48-72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY\r\nCAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF BUD TO DECOUPLE\r\nSHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL...WITH THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nCONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACKS AND THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS BY\r\nTURNING BUD SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BY 36 HOURS AFTER IT MAKES LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nBUD HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE\r\nBY 12 HOURS OR SO AS MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL\r\nAIR IMPINGE ON THE SMALL INNER CORE OF THIS ANNULAR HURRICANE.\r\nHOWEVER...BUD IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY THE TIME IT\r\nMAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. FASTER WEAKENING WILL\r\nOCCUR ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BUD DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAYS 3-4...\r\nIF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES APPEARS LIKELY\r\nACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF\r\nMICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 17.1N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 18.1N 105.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 19.4N 105.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 20.2N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 20.3N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 19.5N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 19.1N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-05-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF BUD IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND\r\nTHE COLDEST CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC AROUND THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS A RESULT...\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK\r\nFINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. BUD IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN UNTIL LANDFALL AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND MORE\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENTAL AIRMASS. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE OVER THE\r\nHIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO. BUD IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 4...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR\r\nSOONER. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/07...AS BUD IS BEING STEERED\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A BROAD TROUGH\r\nALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...AS BUD SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE SPREAD...HOWEVER THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW-\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF BUD WILL DECOUPLE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND BACK OFFSHORE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH LANDFALL...DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION. AT 48 THROUGH 72 HOURS...A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nSHOWN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER RE-EMERGES\r\nOVER THE WATER. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY\r\nACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF\r\nMICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 17.6N 105.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 18.6N 105.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 19.7N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 19.9N 105.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 19.8N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 19.5N 105.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-05-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nWEAKEN THIS MORNING.  BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE\r\nSIGNIFICANT WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER\r\nCORE OF THE CYCLONE.  IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BASICALLY\r\nBECOME AN AMORPHOUS BLOB OF CONVECTION.  AN EARLIER AMSU-B\r\nMICROWAVE PASS WAS CERTAINLY TIMELY IN PINPOINTING THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION AND REVEALING AN APPARENT TILT OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE SHIPS AND THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR\r\nPRODUCT BOTH INDICATE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NOW SITUATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTH.  BASED ON THESE CHANGES IN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND A BLEND\r\nOF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 85 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST EITHER AT OR JUST\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  AFTERWARD...RAPID DECAY IS EXPECTED AS\r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO DECOUPLES THE THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  BUD IS THEN FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 96 HOURS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL\r\nAND THE LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06. BUD REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A\r\nMID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM\r\nTHE U.S. WEST COAST TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY...BUT DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AS\r\nIT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO. AFTER LANDFALL...OR ITS CLOSEST\r\nAPPROACH TO THE COAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY...\r\nWITH A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES WITH A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...THE GFS ENSEMBLE...AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK IN SHOWING A SHALLOW CIRCULATION DRIFTING\r\nSLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY\r\nACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF\r\nMICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 18.4N 105.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 19.9N 105.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 20.0N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 19.8N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 19.4N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-05-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BUD THIS\r\nAFTERNOON FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD WEAKENED TO A CATEGORY ONE\r\nHURRICANE...AT BEST...WITH A MEASURED MAXIMUM 850-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND OF 80 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. GIVEN THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. SUBSEQUENT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INDICATE DRIER AIR PENETRATING\r\nTHE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY/STABLE AIR MASS INTRUDING FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AND MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE CERTAINLY INDUCED\r\nRAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...AND BUD COULD WEAKEN BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...RAPID DECAY\r\nIS EXPECTED AS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO SEPARATES THE\r\nMID- AND SURFACE-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. BUD IS THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 72-96 HOURS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BLEND THE LGEM AND THE DECAY SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/06. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nAFTER BUD MAKES LANDFALL...THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT\r\nSLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST AS A DEPRESSION AND\r\nULTIMATELY A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SLOW FORWARD SPEED OF BUD WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL...\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINFALL CAUSING DANGEROUS MUDSLIDES APPEARS LIKELY\r\nACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF\r\nMICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT...REGARDLESS OF\r\nTHE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 19.2N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 19.9N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 20.1N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 20.1N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 19.9N 105.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 19.4N 106.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-05-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI MAY 25 2012\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BUD HAS BECOME VERY\r\nDISORGANIZED...WITH NO CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AND WELL-DEFINED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL EXISTS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT...BASED MAINLY ON\r\nEXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND THIS COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  BUD SHOULD CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nTONIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO.  AFTER 12-24 H...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE\r\nCOAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF BUD.  THIS MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nA COMBINATION OF MODERATE SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DRY AIR\r\nENTRAINMENT...AND INTERACTION WITH THE COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CAUSE\r\nBUD TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 24 H AND A REMNANT LOW BY 48\r\nH.  IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN...BUD COULD DISSIPATE FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION...THERE IS STILL THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS AND DANGEROUS MUD SLIDES ACROSS PORTIONS\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE STATES OF MICHOACAN...COLIMA...\r\nJALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 19.7N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 20.3N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 20.3N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.2N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 19.7N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-05-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012\r\n \r\nTHE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nHAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BUD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. A\r\nFORTUITOUS ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0405Z INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF BUD WAS EITHER INLAND OVER MEXICO OR VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCOAST AND THAT WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WERE 25 KT AT\r\nMOST. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE AT PUERTO VALLARTA HAS BEEN\r\nRISING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...DESPITE BUD MOVING WITHIN ABOUT\r\n40 NM OF THE CITY. THUS WHILE BUD WAS LIKELY STILL A MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM AT 06Z...THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS\r\nINDICATED BY ALL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHORTLY.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 350/5 AS THE LAST RELIABLE CENTER\r\nFIX WAS FROM A 0026Z SSMIS IMAGE FROM THE NRL WEBSITE. THE\r\nSOON-TO-BE REMNANT LOW OF BUD SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE\r\nSTALLING AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS OF NOTE\r\nTHAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THAT BUD LIKELY HAS DECOUPLED\r\nAND THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW DISPLACED INLAND WELL EAST OF\r\nTHE SURFACE CIRCULATION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 20.3N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 20.7N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Bud","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-05-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP022012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 15 HOURS...BUD IS\r\nASSESSED TO BE A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. \r\nTHE CENTER...IF THERE IS ONE...IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE...AND THE\r\nADVISORY POSITION WAS DETERMINED LARGELY FROM CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND MODEST HINTS IN A COUPLE OF OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES.  THE CENTER COULD BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH...NOT THAT IT\r\nMATTERS MUCH.  ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH\r\nBUD...BUT THAT THREAT IS ALSO RAPIDLY DIMINISHING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 20.6N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 20.8N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-06-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012\r\n \r\nSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nGUATEMALA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\nSINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ALL\r\nOF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANE ENVELOPE...\r\nBETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nOVER WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HWRF BEING THE\r\nMOST AGGRESSIVE.  EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING\r\nOF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nRELATIVELY SMALL AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS.  THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A\r\nHURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS\r\nTYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80-110 N MI.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z  9.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 10.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 11.9N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 13.5N  95.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 15.0N  96.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 17.2N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-06-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHREE-E HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND UW-CIMSS ADT. IN ADDITION...A 14/0409Z ASCAT OVERPASS CAUGHT\r\nTHE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL 34-KT\r\nUNFLAGGED SURFACE WIND VECTORS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA. THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS BASED ON VALUABLE REPORTS FROM SHIP\r\nV7DI7 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/09 KT. CARLOTTA IS MOVING ON A\r\nSTEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTER THAT...\r\nHOWEVER...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A\r\nRIDGE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. THIS BLOCKING\r\nPATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FORCE CARLOTTA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nWESTWARD AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND POSSIBLY STALL IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF ACAPULCO BY\r\n96 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE OCEAN. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS NEW\r\nTREND AS WELL. AS A RESULT...96- AND 120-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS\r\nHAVE BEEN ADDED TO THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS...AND IS THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...AND\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND\r\nHWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO\r\nINTERACT WITH LAND. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SMALL CYCLONE IS A VERY DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER INTO THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THIS\r\nSCENARIO WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ALREADY ABOUT 10 KT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS WELL THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH IS\r\nPLENTY ROBUST FOR ONLY A SECOND ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER...EVEN\r\nTHE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS MAKE CARLOTTA A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS...\r\nWHICH ADDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NEW HIGHER INTENSITY FORECAST. AT\r\n72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN\r\nDUE TO HOW MUCH CARLOTTA WILL INTERACT WITH THE COASTAL SIERRA\r\nMADRE DEL SUR MOUNTAIN RANGE. IF CARLOTTA MOVES FARTHER INLAND THAN\r\nEXPECTED...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST...AND\r\nVICE VERSA IF IT SHOULD INSTEAD REMAIN OFFSHORE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...HURRICANE AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING\r\nFOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE WATCH AREA. USERS ARE AGAIN\r\nREMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC\r\nFORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80 TO 110 N MI.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 10.3N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 11.4N  94.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 12.8N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 14.3N  96.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 15.5N  97.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 16.6N  99.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 16.8N 100.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  19/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-06-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012\r\n\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...CARLOTTA HAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTIVE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLEX OF OUTER RAINBANDS. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND A RECENT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS IS 50 KT. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH\r\nQUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/8.  CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR\r\n48 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY AND IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR\r\nOR ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE WEST...BUT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO.  THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WITH A VERY SLOW MOTION.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nAND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS\r\nFOR CARLOTTA TO REACH AN INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 48 HR.  THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50-60 PERCENT\r\nCHANCE OF 25-KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A\r\n25 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING...SO THE EARLY PART OF THE\r\nCURRENT FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  AFTER 48 HR...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS LIKELY TO BE CONTROLLED BY HOW CLOSE THE CENTER IS TO\r\nTHE COAST.  IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND WEAKEN AS SHOWN\r\nBY THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS...AND THAT IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nUSERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS\r\nTYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80-110 N MI...\r\nAND ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD\r\nBRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 10.9N  93.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 11.9N  94.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 13.3N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 14.6N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 15.6N  97.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 16.5N  99.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n120H  19/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-06-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT\r\nCONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLEX OF OUTER RAIN BANDS.\r\nHOWEVER...A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU OVERPASS DOES NOT YET SHOW AN\r\nEYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT\r\nTHE EAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nMOTION.  CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR PERHAPS \r\n36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION FROM 36-72 HR.  THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HR...AND IT REMAINS\r\nIN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AND\r\nMOTION.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS\r\nSHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...\r\nWHICH IS REFLECTED IN A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nAND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nINDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25-KT\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE\r\nOF 40-KT STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR\r\nCARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR...AND THIS PEAK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. \r\nAFTER 36 HR...LAND INTERACTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR\r\nON THE INTENSITY.  IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND\r\nWEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND THAT SCENARIO IS USED\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nUSERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 11.8N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 12.9N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 14.2N  96.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 15.3N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 16.1N  98.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 16.0N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 15.5N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-06-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...AND WELL-DEFINED\r\nCURVED BANDS CONTINUE TO COIL AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS DEFINED IN MOST OF THE QUADRANTS.  RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED BUT AN EYEWALL HAS NOT FORMED YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE RESULTING IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.\r\nCARLOTTA IS ON AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND...AND MOST OF THE\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE\r\nHIGH TERRAIN...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nBEGIN. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR MORE\r\nRAPIDLY.     \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND CARLOTTA\r\nIS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS. THE NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO EXPAND IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE\r\nCARLOTTA ON A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF CARLOTTA MOVING\r\nVERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE THERAFTER...AND CARLOTTA\r\nWILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT...\r\nPRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nUSERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 12.5N  94.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 13.5N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 14.8N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N  97.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 16.2N  98.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-06-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND A\r\nSMALL BUT RAGGED CDO HAS FORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF AT LEAST HALF AN EYEWALL IN A 15/0348Z AMSU OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/09 KT. CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING IN A NORTHWESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...A BLOCKING\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL\r\nAND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE STORM ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY 36 HOURS...AND WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS BUT\r\nAT A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE\r\nBLOCKING RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO BREAK DOWN AND\r\nGIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE U.S.\r\nSOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL RESULT\r\nIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMEANDER NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nDURING DAYS 3-5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nDEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nEASTWARD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW\r\nTHAT WOULD FORCE CARLOTTA INLAND OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN RANGE OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF\r\nCARLOTTA JUST OFFSHORE AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAGGED AND\r\nELONGATED APPEARANCE OF THE CDO FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST EASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCURRENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND OTHER FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND\r\nENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AT A\r\nNORMAL RATE OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY...AND THAT EXPECTATION\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nCARLOTTA COULD PEAK AT 85-90 KT BETWEEN THE 24- AND 36-HOUR\r\nFORECAST PERIODS BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS WHEN THE CYCLONE INTERACTS\r\nWITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...\r\nHWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nUSERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY\r\nDEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY TRACK WOULD BRING\r\nTHE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 13.2N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 14.1N  96.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 15.2N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 15.9N  98.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 16.3N  99.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 16.5N  99.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 16.2N  99.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n120H  20/0600Z 16.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-06-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012\r\n\r\nCONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS\r\nBECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND\r\nEYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN\r\nALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN\r\nAS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND\r\nTHE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC\r\nLOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS\r\nIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO.  THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA\r\nCOULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. \r\nAFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT\r\nCARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nUSERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY\r\nDEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER\r\nOF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST\r\nSLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 14.0N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 14.9N  96.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 15.9N  97.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 16.4N  98.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 16.6N  99.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 16.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 16.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-06-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 99 KT IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...AND SFMR WIND\r\nESTIMATES OF 90-98 KT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS.  THE\r\nLATEST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW\r\nGOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR 12-24 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 48 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN\r\nAS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND\r\nTHE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN\r\n12-24 HR.  IF IT SURVIVES THAT...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE\r\nOVER THE PACIFIC AND MAKE A SLOW HAIRPIN TURN NEAR THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL\r\nTHE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS\r\nTO DISRUPT THE STORM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE\r\nPREMISE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER 6 HR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS AND THAT\r\nTHE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE NEAR 90 KT.  THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\nAFTER THIS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT\r\nREVISION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS NOW A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN TWO EXTREMES.  THE FIRST EXTREME... SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER\r\nTHE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE SECOND EXTREME...SUPPPORTED\r\nBY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS THAT CARLOTTA\r\nWILL STAY OVER ENOUGH WATER TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY\r\nRAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 14.8N  96.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 15.7N  97.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  98.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 16.7N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 16.8N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 16.5N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 16.0N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-06-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION OF CARLOTTA IS INTERACTING WITH\r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE DISTINCT EYE OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY HAS\r\nBECOME OBSCURE. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 80 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE\r\nEYE OR THE CENTER MOVES COMPLETELY INLAND...WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST...AND THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO TO OCCUR. CARLOTTA\r\nCOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR LESS.\r\nHOWEVER...ONE HAS TO BE CAUTIOUS...AND IF THE CENTER MOVES ALONG\r\nTHE COAST INSTEAD...CARLOTTA WOULD NOT WEAKEN AS FAST AS INDICATED.\r\nGIVEN SUCH UNCERTAINTY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS MAINTAINED\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT\r\n9 KNOTS STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nGULF OF MEXICO. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WILL COLLAPSE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY MEANDER OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nTURN CARLOTTA EASTWARD VERY SLOWLY IN THE LONG RANGE. \r\n \r\nEVEN IF CARLOTTA BECOMES A WEAK SYSTEM...THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION\r\nCOULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 15.9N  97.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 16.5N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 17.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 17.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 17.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 17.0N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z 17.0N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-06-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA IS LOCATED LESS THAN 30 N MI INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE OF\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IS\r\nSTEADILY TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY BOTH\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY. THE PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR KEEPING\r\nCARLOTTA AS A HURRICANE IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nRECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH INDICATED THAT 65- TO 70-KT\r\nSURFACE WINDS WERE LOCATED ABOUT 40 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHIS WOULD PLACE THESE WINDS ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS OCCURRING IN\r\nTHAT AREA AS NOTED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/11 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY ON A\r\n16/0328Z AMSU EYE POSITION AND ANIMATION OF THE ACAPULCO MEXICO\r\nRADAR DATA. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FORCE CARLOTTA TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD. STEERING CURRENTS ARE THEN\r\nFORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS CARLOTTA BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE\r\nCYCLONIC GYRE OVER MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY DAYS\r\n3-5. THE RESULT IS THAT CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER INLAND OVER\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO AND STEADILY WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48\r\nHOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK\r\nMODELS TVCN...TVCE...AND TVCC.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS MAY EXIST ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE THE \r\nCOAST OF MEXICO...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND CARLOTTA SHOULD\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND A DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT DUE\r\nTO INTERACTION WITH THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH ONSHORE\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF CARLOTTA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nGENERATE SQUALLS WITH GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE\r\nPRIMARY THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS...DUE TO THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND ITS\r\nREMNANTS. THIS COULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS\r\nCAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS A LARGE\r\nPORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 16.6N  98.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 17.1N  99.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 17.6N  99.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 17.8N 100.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 17.7N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 17.4N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 17.4N  99.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z 17.4N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-06-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012\r\n\r\nCORRECTED TO REFLECT DISSIPATION AT 72 HR\r\n \r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO HAS DISRUPTED THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nOF CARLOTTA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS ARE\r\nDECREASING RAPIDLY. HOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY\r\nA LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS AND A FEW SQUALLS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS\r\nCOULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS\r\nA LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO FIND...APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING\r\nFLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMANTS SHOULD\r\nSLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SYSTEM MOST LIKELY WILL MEANDER OVER\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 17.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 18.0N 101.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-06-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION...AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT WINDS ARE\r\nMOST LIKELY NEAR 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW TONIGHT. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THIS COULD RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS\r\nAND MUDSLIDES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER...ALTHOUGH DIFFICULT TO FIND...APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. THE STEERING\r\nFLOW HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY MOVE\r\nLITTLE FOR A DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 17.9N  99.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 18.0N 101.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-06-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP032012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA IS STILL NOTICEABLE\r\nIN VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE SURFACE\r\nCENTER IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST MUCH OF ITS\r\nORGANIZATION.  CARLOTTA HAS THEREFORE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW IS MOVING AT 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT AND SHOULD KEEP THIS MOTION\r\nUNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT ANY LEFTOVER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE COULD\r\nMERGE WITH OR BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER CIRCULATION FARTHER WEST OVER\r\nTHE PACIFIC IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nVERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER MOST OF SOUTHERN AND\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.  EVEN THOUGH CARLOTTA\r\nSHOULD DISSIPATE...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND COULD LEAD TO LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 18.1N 100.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 18.2N 100.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH\r\nOF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED A SUFFICIENTLY WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZATION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE ASCAT\r\nDATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nSINCE THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE \r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND\r\nBUILD WESTWARD DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.  THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD IN A COUPLE OF \r\nDAYS AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN \r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT\r\n2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO PERSIST DURING MOST OF THAT TIME.  AS A RESULT...ONLY GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.  SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS SHOWN BY DAY 5 AS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 12.3N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 13.0N 106.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 13.8N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 14.4N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 14.7N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 15.0N 116.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 15.2N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 15.8N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 04 2012\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS THE \r\nCONVECTION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE AND FIRST DAYLIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE A FEW SMALL SWIRLS HAVE POPPED OUT THE NORTH SIDE\r\nOF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE\r\nCENTER SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS ASSUMED TO BE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL\r\nSWIRLS AND JUST INSIDE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CIRRUS CLOUD\r\nSHIELD...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED\r\nON THE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE...PLUS A\r\nT2.0/30 KT UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 KT...BASED ON CONTINUITY WITH\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DEEPER EASTWARD\r\nSTEERING FLOW OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS\r\nNORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND LIES CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE\r\nNORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY ALLOW FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION. AFTER\r\nTHAT...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE SHEAR TO\r\nWEAKEN CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE GFS...ECWMF...AND HWRF MODELS\r\nDEVELOP A RATHER ROBUST TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE 200 MB LEVEL\r\nBY 72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION\r\nSTRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE AT THAT TIME BASED UPON THESE MODEL\r\nDEPICTIONS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nDESPITE RELATIVELY LOW WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 13.1N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 13.8N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 14.4N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 14.9N 112.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 15.0N 114.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 15.1N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 15.2N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 15.9N 127.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 04 2012\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS NOW THAT THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nBEGINNING TO ABATE AS MODEST CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEGUN TO\r\nDEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nALSO HAVING DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nSTILL DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE...BUT A FORTUITOUS 1628Z ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION WAS\r\nLOCATED VERY NEAR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND T2.4/34 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA THAT ONLY\r\nSHOWED 25-KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. EVEN ALLOWING FOR THE\r\nLOW BIAS OF ASCAT...THE SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/11 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nMOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS NORTH. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SITUATED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TV15.\r\n \r\nMODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS\r\nBEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST\r\nBY ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE...AND\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 10 KT. THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS AND IN MOIST MID-LEVEL\r\nCONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND REMAINS ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF\r\nTHE HWRF AND GFS MODELS...WHICH INDICATE A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 13.5N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 14.0N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 14.5N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 14.8N 113.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 14.9N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 15.0N 119.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 15.3N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 16.1N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 04 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE STILL HAVE NOT BEEN ANY FUNDAMENTAL CHANGES TO THE STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION.  THE OVERALL CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND WELL\r\nDEFINED...BUT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY LOOSELY ORGANIZED.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS INCREASING\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WHILE CONFLUENCE OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE MAY BE LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INTENSITY IS BEING KEPT AT 30 KT SINCE\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO DEFINITIVE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT THE SYSTEM AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THE\r\nCURRENT MOTION IS 290/10 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FAIRLY CONSTANT SPEED THROUGH DAY 5. \r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST...AND\r\nTHE NEW ONE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY PROHIBITIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A ZONE OF\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE COULD CONTINUE NEAR THE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE\r\nMORE DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST THEREFORE ONLY SHOWS GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 3.  THIS SCENARIO IS\r\nHIGHER THAN THAT SHOWN BY THE STANDARD INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS\r\nONLY ECLIPSED BY THE VERSION OF THE HWRF THAT USES THE ECMWF AS ITS\r\nBACKGROUND.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nINTO A DRIER...MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AFTER DAY 3...AND WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 13.6N 108.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 14.0N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 14.5N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 14.9N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 15.1N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 15.2N 121.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 16.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION \r\nTHIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH A LACK OF RECENT MICROWAVE OR\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA.  GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED AND BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED\r\nNEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT\r\nDOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT \r\nIN STRUCTURE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT\r\n11 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY...THEN\r\nTURN MORE WESTWARD BY FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND\r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN \r\nIS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION AND \r\nIS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS.  BY 72 HOURS...THE \r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING IN THE LATTER\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 13.9N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 14.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 14.8N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 15.2N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 15.3N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 15.5N 122.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 15.8N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 16.3N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 05 2012\r\n \r\nA 0930Z AMSU PASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN SHOWING THE LOCATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AND INDICATED THAT A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED ABOUT\r\nHALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED OVER THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION AND THE\r\nOUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED\r\nON THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KT BASED\r\nON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...AS THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR RELAXING A BIT WHILE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nGIVEN THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...AND SHOWS A PEAK OF 60 KT IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE HWRF. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY\r\nWEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AT DAYS\r\n3 THROUGH 5 BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF DANIEL IS\r\nLOCATED A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 285/10. THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO...AS DANIEL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE END OF\r\nTHE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A BLEND OF\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 14.2N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 14.6N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 15.0N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 15.3N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 15.5N 118.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 16.0N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 16.5N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT\r\nALONG WITH A RATHER SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.  A BLEND OF THE\r\nTAFB/SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50\r\nKT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATER.\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS INDEX\r\nGIVING A 26 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES\r\nNEAR THE SHIPS MODEL.  IN A FEW DAYS...DANIEL WILL LIKELY BE MOVING\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE WEST...WITH AN\r\nESTIMATE OF 280/11.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS WELL CLUSTERED ON A\r\nTRACK TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A RIDGE\r\nBUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER\r\nIS THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  WITH\r\nLITTLE CHANGE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS...THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN BEFORE.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 14.2N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 14.5N 113.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 14.8N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 15.1N 117.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 15.3N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 15.7N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 05 2012\r\n \r\nA WINDSAT OVERPASS FROM 0116 UTC AND GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT\r\nDANIEL IS TILTED A BIT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH HEIGHT.  DESPITE THE\r\nTILT...DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED...AND THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55\r\nKT BASED ON CONSENSUS DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED MOTION IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...280/11 KT.  A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING DANIEL\r\nON A WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS\r\nHIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST SINCE THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  SINCE THE RI INDEX\r\nSHOWS A 3 IN 10 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...BUT DANIEL WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 26C AND THROUGH A MORE STABLE AIR\r\nMASS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFROM DAY 2 AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 14.4N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 14.6N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 14.9N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 15.1N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 15.4N 121.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 16.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 16.5N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 17.0N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS NOT STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  A TIMELY\r\nAMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 0455 UTC SHOWS THAT THERE IS QUITE A BIT\r\nOF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTERS.  OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nALL AROUND T3.5...SO THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KT.  \r\n\r\nIT IS A RATHER TRICKY INTENSITY FORECAST THIS MORNING.  DANIEL \r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATER\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH FAVORS STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE IT MAY TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO RESPOND TO THESE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.  THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF AND NOW KEEP DANIEL JUST BELOW\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE GFDL AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE STILL\r\nMAKE THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE AND SO WILL THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nHOWEVER...THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN LOW...DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS IN 36-48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. \r\nDANIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AT A FASTER RATE LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE NHC FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS MUCH MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  DANIEL IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.  A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD \r\nCOURSE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 14.6N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 14.9N 115.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 15.2N 118.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 15.3N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 15.5N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 16.0N 127.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 16.7N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INFRARED PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS AS A RAGGED CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED SOUTH OF\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSTILL SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF DANIEL IS TILTED\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD WITH HEIGHT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE 1200Z TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DANIEL CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING AND IS ABOVE MOST OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN CONSENSUS FROM\r\n48 HOURS ONWARD...AND SHOWS DANIEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING\r\nDANIEL TURNING WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER IN\r\nTHE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 14.8N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 15.1N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 15.2N 118.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 15.4N 120.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 15.6N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 16.3N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 16.5N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF DANIEL HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...WITH A CDO PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER BUT NO SIGNS OF AN\r\nEYE FORMING YET IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 18Z DVORAK FIXES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB. WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...DANIEL HAS ABOUT 24 HOURS\r\nLEFT BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS IS STILL SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH HAS THE\r\nSUPPORT OF MORE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THE LGEM THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF DANIEL IS LOCATED SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES AND HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WEST OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AT AROUND 10 KT.\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nWITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AS\r\nDANIEL MOVES SOUTH OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ADJUSTED FOR THE MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION AND THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS\r\nRESULTS IN A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF 15 TO 20 NM THROUGH THE PERIOD\r\nCOMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 14.4N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 14.6N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 14.8N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 15.0N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 16.0N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 06 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL WAS SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE A FEW HOURS AGO IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...AND THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY A\r\nRECENT SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 75 KT...AND DANIEL IS UPGRADED TO A\r\n65-KT HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.  ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE DANIEL IS\r\nIN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26C. \r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDER AND THE\r\nATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE WHEN DANIEL MOVES FARTHER WEST.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING FROM 36 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND\r\nTHE LGEM ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND DANIEL SHOULD\r\nRESPOND BY MOVING FASTER TO THE WEST...ESPECIALLY BY DAYS 3 THROUGH\r\n5 WHEN IT BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES\r\nTO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST LIES ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.  DANIEL\r\nHAS NOT BEEN GAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...AND\r\nTHE ECMWF MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN DOING THE BEST JOB IN\r\nCAPTURING THAT MOTION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 14.5N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 14.7N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 14.9N 120.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 15.2N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 15.6N 125.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.0N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 16.0N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 16.0N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012\r\n \r\nHINTS OF AN EYE ARE APPARENT IN THE LAST FEW GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES. THIS EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SINCE ABOUT 0000 UTC...AND A SSMIS PASS AROUND 0400 UTC\r\nINDICATED THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS RAGGED. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED A LITTLE TO 70 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF \r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS\r\nADT ESTIMATES. DANIEL WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 18 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THESE\r\nCOMBINED FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING STARTING IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT AN ESTIMATED 10 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nMOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE\r\nNEXT FIVE DAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST ECMWF TRACK HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE NORTH...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND AND IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WERE MODIFIED\r\nSLIGHTLY BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.6N 118.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 14.8N 119.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 15.1N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 15.4N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 15.7N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 16.2N 133.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 16.3N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012\r\n\r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE\r\nOF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH AN EYE AGAIN\r\nTRYING TO BECOME EVIDENT ON ENHANCED IR AND VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS INCREASED A LITTLE MORE...TO 75 KT...BASED ON\r\nA SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND ADVANCED DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL LATER TODAY AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nSOON ENCOUNTER A DRIER AIR MASS.  THEREFORE....IT IS PRESUMED THAT\r\nDANIEL HAS REACHED...OR IS VERY NEAR...ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nIS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SINCE THE GLOBAL MODEL SHOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL SUITE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.9N 119.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 15.0N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 15.2N 123.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 15.5N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 15.8N 128.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 16.4N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD A LITTLE...TO 80\r\nKT...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  DANIEL MOVED OVER A SLIGHT\r\nRIDGE IN THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THIS PROBABLY\r\nCONTRIBUTED TO THE RECENT STRENGTHENING EPISODE.  AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES WEST OF 120W LONGITUDE...DANIEL WILL ENCOUNTER AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR\r\nMASS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND BEGINNING TOMORROW. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOT QUITE AS FAR\r\nNORTH AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MOTION CONTINUES\r\nTO BE WESTWARD...OR 270/10.  DANIEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE AND STRENGTHENS A\r\nLITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHT\r\nSOUTHWARD RELOCATION.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 14.6N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 14.8N 122.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 15.0N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 15.2N 127.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 15.3N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 15.5N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FORMING\r\nAROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE 77 KT AND 90 KT AT 00 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ABOUT\r\n105 KT.  GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nDANIEL WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12\r\nHOURS...SO THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.  THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES A\r\nGRADUAL DECAY IN WINDS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL DURING THE FIRST\r\n2 DAYS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE DANIEL HAS\r\nSTRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10 KT.  DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH\r\nBUILDS WESTWARD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  ALSO...IN\r\nDIRECT CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW ON THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE\r\nMODELS...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE THROUGH DAY 4.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 121.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 15.7N 125.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 16.1N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 16.3N 131.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 16.5N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 16.0N 150.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED SOME MORE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD TOPS\r\nSURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -75C AND THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nMORE DISTINCT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED\r\nTO 100 KT...MAKING DANIEL A MAJOR HURRICANE. IT IS SOMEWHAT\r\nSUPRISING THAT DANIEL IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH AS THE EYE HAS\r\nCROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM. I CAN ONLY ASSUME THAT THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nREACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS THESE LOW WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nTYPICALLY CAUSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO LESSEN...RESULTING IN A\r\nDECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nOF THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS AND SHOWS DANIEL STEADILY WEAKENING\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATER\r\nAND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 5\r\nDAYS AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A TAD SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS\r\nAT 0554 UTC. THIS SCATTEROMETER PASS CONFIRMED THE COMPACT WIND\r\nFIELD OF DANIEL.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 15.1N 122.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 15.3N 124.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 15.9N 129.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 16.1N 132.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 16.2N 138.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 16.2N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 16.0N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 90 KT...AND\r\nTHIS IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED.  SINCE DANIEL WILL BE\r\nTRAVERSING COOLER WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM AND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...275/12. \r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD FORCE A CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 15.1N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 15.3N 125.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 15.6N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 15.9N 131.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 16.0N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 16.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n\r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION HAD BEEN DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...\r\nALTHOUGH RECENTLY CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE EYEWALL HAVE COOLED.  THE EYE\r\nIS STILL APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND IS CLOUD FILLED ON THE\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES.  THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 90 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. \r\nALTHOUGH DANIEL SHOULD REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND THROUGH A STABLE AIR\r\nMASS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM PREDICTION\r\nAND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES ITS PERSISTENT WESTWARD TREK AND THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 275/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY STEERING\r\nCURRENT FOR THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONES AND\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 15.2N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 15.3N 127.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 15.6N 129.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 15.7N 132.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 15.8N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 15.9N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 16.0N 153.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER SUB-25C WATERS.\r\nHOWEVER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO WARM...AND\r\nTHE CLOUD-FILLED 10-15 N MI WIDE EYE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nOBSCURED IN LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE AT T5.0/90 KT AT 0000 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 85 KT BASED ON THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SINCE THAT TIME. WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nLOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE MAIN CONTRIBUTION TO\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BE THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS. TOWARD THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nSOMEWHAT WARMER WATERS. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LGEM\r\nAND INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nDANIEL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A STEADY MOTION OF 275/12. THE WESTWARD\r\nEXTENSION OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER DANIEL WESTWARD AT A SIMILAR\r\nFORWARD SPEED THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTER WEAKENING TO A SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE COULD INDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CONTINUES\r\nTO LIE BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 15.3N 126.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 15.4N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 15.6N 131.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 15.7N 134.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 15.7N 137.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 15.9N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 15.7N 149.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0000Z 15.5N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS AS\r\nDANIEL MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nCONSENSUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\nT4.0/65 KT AND T5.0/90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THIS INTENSITY IS\r\nALSO SUPPORTED BY THE MOST RECENT CIRA/NESDIS AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF 82 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A STEADY 275/13 KT. DANIEL IS ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE STRONG AND EXTENSIVE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.\r\n\r\nDESPITE BEING IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSTEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nRELATIVELY COOL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 24C AND INGESTS\r\nMORE STABLE AIR. DURING THE 48-72 HOUR TIME PERIOD...THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KT...WHICH COULD INDUCE\r\nMORE RAPID WEAKENING THAN EXPECTED...CAUSING DANIEL TO BECOME A\r\nNON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOONER THAN INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DECAY SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 15.4N 127.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 15.5N 129.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 15.6N 132.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 15.7N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 15.8N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 15.8N 144.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 15.6N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0600Z 15.4N 156.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHIS MORNING...DANIEL HAS SHOWN AN EYE INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN A SMALL\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY INFRARED IMAGERY. A\r\n0912Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM THE NRL SITE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE MAY HAVE DEVELOPED A SECONDARY EYEWALL AT A RADIUS OF\r\nABOUT 30 NM WITH A REMNANT INNER EYEWALL STILL APPARENT AT A 10 NM\r\nRADIUS. BOTH SAB AND TAFB PROVIDE DVORAK NUMBERS UNCHANGED AT\r\n4.0/5.0...YET THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS WEAKENED BY ABOUT 10 KT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A\r\nBLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES PROVIDES OUR 75 KT INTENSITY ANALYSIS.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL\r\nAND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nDANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT\r\nPROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS\r\nVERY LOW.  AROUND 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE\r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE.  IT IS LIKELY THAT\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL METHODS AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE ANALYSIS OF THE INITIAL SIZE OF DANIEL WAS ASSISTED BY A 0530Z\r\nASCAT PASS AND A 1029Z AMSU CIRA WIND RADII ESTIMATE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 15.3N 129.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 15.4N 131.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 15.5N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 15.6N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 15.7N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 15.6N 146.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 15.5N 151.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/1200Z 15.0N 158.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nIS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AND EXHIBITING WARMER CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE SAB AND TAFB DVORAK FIXES HAVE\r\nDROPPED TO 3.5/4.0. LIKEWISE...THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 60 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY\r\nIS SET TO 65 KT...MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.\r\n\r\nDANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN\r\nIN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL\r\nAND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT\r\nPROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS\r\nVERY LOW. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE\r\nEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nLOSE THE VORTEX COMPLETELY BY DAY FIVE AND DISSIPATION IS INDICATED\r\nAT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS\r\nSTATISTICAL SCHEME AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nAN 1806Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ASSISTED WITH THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS\r\nFOR DANIEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 15.4N 130.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.5N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 15.5N 147.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 15.5N 154.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Daniel","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF DANIEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE SMALL CDO REMAINING\r\nNEARLY STEADY. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 4.0/65 KT\r\n...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. DANIEL WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nSSTS OF 24-25C FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS\r\nSOME INCREASE IN NORTHERLY SHEAR IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW DECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3\r\nAND DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE DUE WESTWARD...AND IS NOW A\r\nLITTLE FASTER AT 15 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...AS A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF DANIEL WILL KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 15.4N 132.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 15.4N 134.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.5N 137.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE WEST...OR 270/14 KT. THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. DANIEL SHOULD MOVE\r\nWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nSITUATED TO ITS NORTH...ALTHOUGH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE\r\nVERTICALLY SHALLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD MOVE ACROSS 140W\r\nLONGITUDE AND PASS INTO THE NOAA CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER\r\nAREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nDANIEL HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND AN EYE HAS EVEN OCCASIONALLY BEEN\r\nEVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE\r\nEYE FEATURE HAS BECOME INDISTINCT IN BOTH INFRARED AND MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. DANIEL SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN AS THE\r\nCYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nINTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS DUE TO\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DESPITE\r\nMOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS BY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 15.4N 133.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 15.4N 136.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.5N 139.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 15.2N 157.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF DANIEL CONTINUES TO\r\nSHRINK AND WARM.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65\r\nKT...AND THE OBJECTIVE SCHEME FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN\r\nESTIMATE OF ABOUT 45 KT.  BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THESE NUMBERS...\r\nTHE WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 55 KT.  DANIEL IS MOVING ACROSS A\r\nSOUTHWARD-PROTRUDING TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS OF ROUGHLY 24C...BUT THE\r\nSTORM WILL ACTUALLY BE REACHING SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS THE FARTHER\r\nWEST IT MOVES.  HOWEVER...NORTHERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THAT SHOULD CURB ANY RE-STRENGTHENING OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY MIRRORS THE GRADUAL DECAY\r\nSHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  DANIEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...OR 270/14 KT...TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOWER SYSTEM...A TRACK ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS FAVORED.  THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 15.3N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.3N 137.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.3N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.3N 143.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 15.2N 146.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 15.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nA RATHER SMALL AMORPHOUS BLOB IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DANIEL.  A BLEND OF THE LOWERED CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY AND FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH AGENCIES RESULTS IN\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN\r\nAS IT TRAVERSES COOLER 24-25C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT.  THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF DANIEL IS FORECAST TO\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD HEADING UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AND THE GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 15.3N 136.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 15.3N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 15.3N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 15.3N 144.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 15.3N 147.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 15.0N 154.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED SWIRL OF LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE\r\nAND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS.  DANIEL IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION VERY SOON AND BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS IT ENCOUNTERS\r\nINCREASING NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND REMAINS OVER \r\nSSTS OF 24-25 DEGREES CELSIUS.\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nIN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THE UPDATED TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE EVENLOPE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WEDNESDAY\r\nMORNING.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.4N 138.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 15.5N 140.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 15.5N 143.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 15.5N 146.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 15.5N 149.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Daniel","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP042012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012\r\n \r\nDANIEL IS ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT\r\nABOUT 14 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SMALL CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SITUATED TO ITS NORTH\r\nAND NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. ON\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...DANIEL SHOULD CROSS OVER INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC BASIN LATER THIS MORNING.\r\n\r\nONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS...WHICH IS SHEARED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF DANIEL. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.6/37 KT. DANIEL SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER AS\r\nIT MOVES OVER RELATIVELY COOL WATERS AND INTO A REGION OF STRONGER\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DANIEL WILL LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AND A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...WHICH SHOW DISSIPATION BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE ADVISORIES AND DISCUSSIONS\r\nWILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU\r\nHAWAII.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 15.4N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 15.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 15.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 15.4N 151.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 14.8N 157.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012\r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO.  VISIBLE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THUS...THE LOW IS NOW BEING\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND GIVEN AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT BASED ON A T2.0 FROM TAFB. \r\n\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH VERY WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY...WITH THE SHIPS\r\nINDEX INDICATING A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING.  IT IS\r\nPUZZLING WHY THE GFDL/HWRF DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING WITH THIS\r\nCYCLONE GIVEN SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND IN ABOUT\r\nFIVE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.  A LARGE RIDGE OVER MEXICO\r\nAND THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IN A FEW\r\nDAYS TIME...SOME OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE AROUND 115W...WHICH\r\nCOULD RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SLOWER AND MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE MODEL SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AT LONG RANGE...AND THUS\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE TRACK MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...TVCN.  \r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z  9.9N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 10.4N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 11.1N 106.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 11.8N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 12.5N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 13.7N 114.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 15.0N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 16.0N 121.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP NEAR THE CENTER AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE BANDING STRUCTURE ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nWAS IMPRESSIVE. BASED ON THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM EMILIA IN THIS\r\nADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THERE IS NOTHING\r\nAPPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL KEEP EMILIA FROM INTENSIFYING\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN 36 HOURS OR PERHAPS EARLIER...AND SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nSTRENGTHENING THEREAFTER. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX INCREASED FROM A 42 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY TO A 73 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT. IN\r\nADDITION...MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER...WHICH IS COMMONLY AN INDICATION OF INTENSIFICATION AT A\r\nFASTER PACE. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14. THE GOOD NEWS FOR\r\nMEXICO IS THAT THERE IS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A VERY STEADY STEERING\r\nFLOW WHICH WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A\r\nGOOD CLIP WELL AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. SINCE THE HIGH\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...EMILIA WILL\r\nPROBABLY DECREASE SOME IN FORWARD SPEED. GIVEN THE WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nSTEERING FLOW...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nFOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD IS NOT VERY TIGHT...BUT STILL ALL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE EMILIA WESTWARD OVER WATER. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS\r\nNOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 10.7N 103.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 11.3N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 12.0N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 12.8N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 13.5N 112.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 14.5N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 16.5N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERNS HAVE BECOME ELONGATED NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST DUE TO THE\r\nCYCLONE GETTING PINCHED BETWEEN MODEST EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO\r\nITS EAST AND THE IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM MAJOR HURRICANE DANIEL\r\nLOCATED TO ITS WEST. DESPITE THIS SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nFLOW PATTERN...UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO \r\nINCREASE AND ARE NOW AT T3.0/45 KT. SUBJECTIVE ANALYSES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS INDICATE EMILIA HAS\r\nBEEN WOBBLING ALMOST DUE WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. TRENDING\r\nTHROUGH THESE WOBBLES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN AVERAGE\r\nMOTION OF 285/12 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. HOWEVER...THIS STILL PLACES THE INITIAL POSITION SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE FAIRLY\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST WHILE THE\r\nNOGAPS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE MORE NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nTHE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ONLY GRADUALLY TURN EMILIA WESTWARD AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MASSIVE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S. ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE MORE RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW...WHICH WOULD\r\nGENERALLY FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR. IN FACT...THE\r\nGFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING A 66 PERCENT\r\nPROBABILITY OF 30-KT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DUE TO THE\r\nILL-DEFINED INNER CORE DEPICTED IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL PINCHING EFFECT NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO\r\nIMPROVE AS DANIEL AND ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WEAKEN AND NO LONGER\r\nIMPINGES ON EMILIA. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nEMILIA TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND IT WOULD\r\nNOT SURPRISE ME IF EMILIA BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THAT\r\nTIME. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 10.7N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 11.4N 106.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 12.1N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 12.8N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 13.5N 113.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 14.7N 116.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 15.7N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 16.5N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INFRARED SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF EMILIA REMAINS ELONGATED DUE TO\r\nA SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW SINK FROM\r\nHURRICANE DANIEL.  HOWEVER...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE\r\nSIGNIFICANT CURVED BANDING FEATURES BENEATH THE CLOUD CANOPY WITH\r\nSOME EVIDENCE OF A PRIMITIVE INNER CORE.  SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT...WITH AMSU AND ADT\r\nESTIMATES FROM CIMSS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE RAISED TO 45 KT CONSIDERING THE ORGANIZATION SEEN\r\nON MICROWAVE DATA.  \r\n\r\nASSUMING THAT EMILIA DOES NOT GET TOO CLOSE TO THE UPPER OUTFLOW\r\nFROM DANIEL...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A\r\nDISTINCT POSSIBILITY...THE NHC FORECAST WILL NOT EXPLICITLY SHOW\r\nTHIS DUE TO THE DISSIPATION OF THE MICROWAVE RING FEATURE SEEN\r\nOVERNIGHT AND THE LURKING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  HOWEVER THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE TOP OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  WEAKENING SHOULD START IN\r\nABOUT THREE DAYS WHEN SSTS BEGIN TO FALL ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS\r\nA RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA.  THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THIS TROUGH IS THE\r\nBIGGEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE\r\nFORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SUGGESTING IT WILL CAUSE A MORE\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION OF EMILIA BEYOND THREE DAYS.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN\r\nMUCH CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND ANY MODIFICATIONS TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC IN NATURE...WITH THE FINAL\r\nTRACK GENERALLY LYING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND TVCN. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 11.2N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 11.7N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 12.5N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 13.2N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 13.9N 114.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 15.0N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 15.8N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 16.5N 126.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF EMILIA HAS BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME ELONGATION TO THE\r\nNORTH...BANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE PROMINENT AND CURVED\r\nAROUND THE CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS\r\nSUGGESTED A BANDING EYE WAS ATTEMPTING TO FORM.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT...WHICH CONTINUES TO LEAN ON SOMEWHAT\r\nHIGHER MICROWAVE-BASED ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT THE INNER CORE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...IT APPEARS THAT\r\nEMILIA COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT ANY TIME WITH WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nNEAR 29C AND VERY LITTLE SHEAR.  THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nINDEX ALSO SUGGESTS A 54 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 30 KT CHANGE OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE PRECISE TIMING OF THE EVENT IS\r\nDIFFICULT...IT IS PROBABLE THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR\r\nSOMETIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  WEAKENING COULD BEGIN IN\r\nABOUT THREE DAYS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN\r\nSSTS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 285/13.  EMILIA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS IT LIES SOUTH OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC.  WHILE A TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL TO INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nBULK OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW RIDGING BUILDING IN BETWEEN THAT\r\nFEATURE AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS RIDGE WOULD CAUSE EMILIA TO\r\nTURN WESTWARD IN THE LONGER RANGE...BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE\r\nUNCERTAINTY AT THAT TIME FRAME.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 11.4N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 12.1N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 12.7N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 13.4N 113.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 13.9N 115.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 14.3N 118.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 14.8N 122.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 15.5N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 08 2012\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT EMILIA MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF\r\nFORMING AN EYE...AND A TIMELY 0105 UTC SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS THAT AT\r\nLEAST HALF OF AN EYEWALL HAS FORMED NEAR VERY DEEP CONVECTION EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE IMPROVEMENTS IN CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 60 KT. CONDITIONS\r\nAPPEAR FAVORABLE FOR EMILIA TO INTENSIFY STEADILY...IF NOT\r\nRAPIDLY...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 28C FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...AN ENHANCED OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS FORMED\r\nIN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT DOWNSTREAM OF THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE\r\nDANIEL. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS EMILIA BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 12\r\nHOURS AND REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER COOLER SSTS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS SHOWN BY THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT EMILIA SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING EMILIA MOVING WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.\r\nBEYOND THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN\r\nHOW MUCH EMILIA WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nMOVING WESTWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE GFS\r\nSHOWS THE MOST INTERACTION AND MORE OF A WEST-NORTHEST MOTION AT\r\nDAY 2 AND BEYOND...AS IT HAS THE DEEPEST REPRESENTATION OF THE\r\nEMILIA VORTEX. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE UKMET SHOWS A MUCH\r\nSHALLOWER REPRESENTATION OF EMILIA THAT DOES NOT FEEL THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH AND THEREFORE MOVES SOUTH OF DUE WEST AFTER\r\n48 HOURS. GIVEN THAT EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO REACH MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS...SOME INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH SEEMS LIKELY. THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST REFLECTS THAT SCENARIO AND LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE\r\nTVCE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 11.6N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 12.1N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 12.7N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 13.3N 114.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 13.6N 115.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 14.2N 119.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 16.0N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND\r\nA LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED. A 09/0330 UTC\r\nSSMIS OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED A LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD\r\nDEVELOPED. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND A CONSENSUS T4.0/65 KT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB...EMILIA HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTRENDING THROUGH ALL OF THE WOBBLES IN THE CONVENTIONAL AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS YIELDS AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/10 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS\r\nTHE HURRICANE MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...BUT THEN\r\nDIVERGES AFTER THAT WITH THE UKMET TAKING EMILIA DUE WEST AND THE\r\nGFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKING THE HURRICANE MORE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS NOW SHIFTED FROM SOUTH OF\r\nTO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GIVEN THE\r\nDISTINCT NORTHWARD-BIAS OF THE GFS MODEL WITH HURRICANE DANIEL...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS WELL SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TV15. \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE TIGHT INNER CORE NOTED IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...\r\nLOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS...AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN THAT CONTINUES TO EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SHIPS AND FSSE/FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE MODELS...WHICH ARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 32 KT\r\nAND 33 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AT LEAST 15\r\nKT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO LEVEL OFF THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS UNTIL\r\nEMILIA REACHES COOLER WATERS BY ABOUT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...\r\nTHE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CLOSE FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSSE\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 11.9N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 12.4N 110.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 13.0N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 13.5N 114.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 13.9N 116.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 14.6N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 15.4N 124.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 16.4N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...EMILIA HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY FROM A\r\nCATEGORY ONE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH A RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION EPISODE HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED...SPECIFYING THE\r\nPRECISE TIMING OF THIS EVENT IS ALWAYS DIFFICULT.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 85 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT ADT ESTIMATES\r\nSUGGEST THAT EMILIA MIGHT BE STRONGER.  HOWEVER THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nLESS WELL-DEFINED ON RECENT IR IMAGES...SO IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO\r\nBE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE ON THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT THIS TIME. \r\nEMILIA SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS AND IN RELATIVELY LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING SEEMS\r\nLIKELY...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS IS ABOVE ALL OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  ASSUMING AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS FORECAST TO LEVEL OFF AND SLOWLY DECREASE IN 24-36\r\nHOURS.  AS ALWAYS...HOWEVER...OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE LIMITED.\r\n\r\nEMILIA CONTINUES ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION IS ABOUT 290/10.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nWITH A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKELY NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL TRACK PREDICTION.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 12.6N 109.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 13.0N 111.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 13.6N 113.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 14.1N 115.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 14.6N 117.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 15.4N 120.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 16.3N 124.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 17.0N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n\r\nAFTER A VERY RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE EARLIER TODAY...EMILIA\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT AT A\r\nSOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE.  USING A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK VALUES...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT...PUTTING\r\nEMILIA ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  AN SSMIS IMAGE FROM\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AGO SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL IN MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY WITH AN ESTIMATED EYE DIAMETER OF 20 N MI.  THE SHIPS-RI\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNIFICANT PROBABILITY OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ABOVE THE EXPLICIT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS...OWING TO THE RI PROBABILITIES...AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFDL MODEL THEREAFTER.  IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE INTENSITY WILL\r\nLEVEL OFF AND PROBABLY DECREASE SOMEWHAT WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nDUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR INTENSE\r\nHURRICANES.\r\n\r\nTHE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING A BIT TODAY BUT SMOOTHING THROUGH THE\r\nSHORTER-TERM MOTION FLUCTUATIONS LEADS TO A MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n295/11.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING BEHIND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.  EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nBE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS SCENARIO IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nMAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A MORE WESTWARD TURN\r\nINDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nLATEST GFS TRACK AND IS CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 13.1N 111.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 13.5N 112.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 14.0N 114.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 14.5N 116.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.0N 118.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 16.0N 121.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 17.0N 126.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 17.5N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C WRAPPING\r\nTHE ENTIRE WAY AROUND THE EYE. THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES\r\nOF THE DAY SHOWED A DISTINCT EYE THAT WAS OCCASIONALLY CLOUD FREE.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T5.5 OR 102\r\nKT...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR T6.0 OR 115 KT. BASED ON\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS RAISED TO 105 KT...MAKING\r\nEMILIA A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nAS THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nFAVORABLE. A WEAKENING TREND IS SHOWN THEREAFTER DUE TO GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES AND A DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN NEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR\r\nTHE FIRST 2 DAYS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS FROM DAY 3 TO 5. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS COMMON IN MATURE HURRICANES LIKE\r\nEMILIA. IF ONE OCCURS...IT WOULD LIKELY PLAY A DOMINANT ROLE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY EVOLUTION OF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. EMILIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS. BEYOND THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED\r\nAS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 13.3N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 13.9N 113.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 14.6N 115.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.2N 117.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 16.3N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 17.5N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED IN THE CENTER OF A NEARLY CIRCULAR MASS\r\nOF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ADT SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T6.2/120 KT...WHICH HAS BEEN STEADY SINCE 0500 UTC.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 290/10 KT. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON EMILIA CONTINUING TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY DAY 4...HOWEVER...THE\r\nHURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT INTERACTS MORE WITH\r\nTHE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCN CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERING LESS FAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS. COLD UPWELLING...WHICH IS A\r\nVERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY GIVEN THAT UPPER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT\r\nVALUES ARE ONLY ABOUT 12 UNITS OR LESS...COULD INDUCE MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING THAN INDICATED AFTER 36 HOURS HOURS WHEN HEAT CONTENT\r\nVALUES BENEATH THE HURRICANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO ZERO. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 13.5N 113.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 14.0N 114.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 14.6N 116.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.1N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 15.5N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 16.3N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 17.1N 128.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 17.7N 134.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE CENTRAL FEATURES BECAME A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED-LOOKING ON ENHANCED IR IMAGERY.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS DERIVED\r\nFROM SUBJECTIVE CLASSIFICATIONS BY TAFB AND SAB HAVE DIMINISHED\r\nSOMEWHAT...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO 115 KT.  EMILIA IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW BEING\r\nIMPEDED SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS REGIME WILL MORE OR LESS CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT THE SHEAR WILL BE RELAXING\r\nSOMEWHAT IN 3 TO 5 DAYS.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR THE\r\nMAINTENANCE OF A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nWEAKENING...BUT NOT AS QUICKLY AS CALLED FOR BY THE SHIPS/LGEM AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 285/9.\r\nGLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THAT A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nSHOULD BE MAINTAINED TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE PREDICTS A CONTINUED WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY SLIGHT\r\nCHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE MODELS ARE IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON A WESTWARD TURN...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nTYPICALLY TOP-PERFORMING ECMWF MODEL. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 13.7N 113.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 14.1N 115.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 14.6N 117.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.1N 118.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 15.6N 120.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 16.5N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nINNER CORE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT IN COVERAGE AND\r\nBECOME A LITTLE MORE RAGGED-LOOKING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  USING\r\nA BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES YIELDS A\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY OF 110 KT.  EMILIA CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IMPEDED OUTFLOW\r\nTO THE EAST...AS MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE\r\nHURRICANE.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX WITHIN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS BY 24-36 HOURS FROM NOW.  SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING\r\nIS LIKELY DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nPREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST SHOWS A MUCH FASTER RATE\r\nOF WEAKENING THEN SHOWN HERE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED A BIT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 285/8.  THERE ARE NO REASONS TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  A PRONOUNCED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nALONG ABOUT 30N LATITUDE SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO CONTINUE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT\r\nTO THE NORTH OF EMILIA...AND THIS WOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD TURN\r\nAT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF\r\nPREDICTION. \r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON A \r\n1744 UTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 13.9N 114.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 14.3N 115.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 14.8N 117.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 15.3N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 15.7N 121.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 16.8N 125.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD-FILLED\r\nIN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IN\r\nADDITION...THE LATEST MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS\r\nWEAKENED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN TO 5.0 OR 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nTHE UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 100 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT. THE LIKELY CAUSE OF THE\r\nWEAKENING IS MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AFTER 36 HOURS...EMILIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C BY THEN AND\r\nTRACK INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...A LONGER TERM MOTION IS 290/10. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. EMILIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BEYOND\r\nA FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF EMILIA. THE NHC\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 14.4N 115.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 14.7N 117.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 15.1N 118.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 15.6N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 16.0N 122.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 17.0N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 17.7N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 18.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY DANIEL THREE\r\nDAYS AGO WHEN THAT CYCLONE WAS A 70-KT HURRICANE. HOWEVER...DANIEL\r\nLIKELY DID NOT CREATE ANY COLD UPWELLING BECAUSE EMILIA HAS\r\nRECENTLY MADE A CONVECTIVE RESURGENCE WITH A RING OF CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -70C HAVING DEVELOPED AROUND AN EYE FEATURE THAT HAS\r\nBECOME MORE DISTINCT IN INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT\r\nADT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.1/92 KT...AND THE IMPROVED EYE\r\nFEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09 KT. EMILIA REMAINS ON TRACK\r\nAND THE FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nTHE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SKIRTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nA DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO\r\nTHE WEST IS EXPECTED BY DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND\r\nBUILDS SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF\r\nMODEL AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS MODEL TRACKS.\r\n \r\nANY INTENSITY GAINS MADE BY EMILIA THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER...INTO A\r\nDRIER AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY\r\nWEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER 48 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE IN\r\nUNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 14.6N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 14.9N 118.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 15.4N 119.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 15.8N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 16.3N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 17.2N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 17.8N 133.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 18.3N 138.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 11 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT\r\nCONSISTS OF AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND\r\nNO BANDING FEATURES.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT ANNULAR\r\nSTRUCTURE ON SATELLITE...EMILIA WILL PROBABLY NOT CHANGE MUCH IN\r\nINTENSITY TODAY...BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER\r\nWATERS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED EITHER...AND EMILIA CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE\r\nIS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST BY\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST. THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP\r\nEMILIA MOVING ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK UNTIL THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WITH NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BECAUSE\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE WELL ESTABLISHED...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING\r\nCYCLONE PROGRESSING WESTNORTHWESTARD AND WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT TOO FAR FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 14.6N 117.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 15.1N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 15.5N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 16.0N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 17.5N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA MADE A LITTLE BIT OF A COME BACK THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPED\r\nA SOLID RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A DISTINCT EYE.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED\r\nAND NOW SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS. OBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS PROBABLY LED TO A HIGHER INTENSITY EARLIER...BUT SINCE\r\nTHE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED\r\nA LITTLE BIT. THERE COULD SOME ADDITIONAL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nTODAY BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN AS THE CIRCULATION STARTS TO INTERACT WITH COOLER WATERS IN\r\n12 HOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nEMILIA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 8 KNOTS...TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NO\r\nIMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF THE RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED SO\r\nEMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD\r\nTRACK AROUND THE RIDGE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS HAVE A WEAKENING CYCLONE PROGRESSING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nWESTWARD. GIVEN THAT THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO\r\nCHANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN EXTRAPOLATION OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 14.8N 118.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 15.1N 119.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 15.7N 121.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 16.2N 124.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 16.5N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 17.0N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 17.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 17.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 11 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE 25-30 N MI\r\nEYE REMAINS QUITE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGES. THE CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BEEN SYMMETRIC UNTIL THE LAST HOUR OR TWO WHERE\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVER THE EASTERN EYEWALL. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FIXES...THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 100 KT. THE OUTFLOW OF THE MAJOR HURRICANE IS WELL\r\nESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 15 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...BUT EMILIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB 26C WATERS AND\r\nINTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE BY THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nIS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING A SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT THEME.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 8 KT ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH\r\nOF EMILIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD AND GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 15.0N 119.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 15.3N 120.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 15.7N 122.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 16.1N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 16.5N 127.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 17.0N 132.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 17.5N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF EMILIA IS 280/11 KT. THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nADVERTISED TURN TOWARD THE WEST HAS FINALLY OCCURRED AND EMILIA\r\nREMAINS ON TRACK. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT\r\nON EMILIA MAINTAINING THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF EMILIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT WARMING OF THE INNER CORE\r\nCLOUD TOPS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED EMILIA WAS AN\r\nANNULAR HURRICANE AND THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO POSSESS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB. EMILIA IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF OF A NARROW\r\nSEA-SURFACE THERMAL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD BE A LITTLE\r\nSLOWER THAN USUAL FOR A HURRICANE THAT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-25C\r\nWATERS DUE TO THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT. BY 72 HOURS...EMILIA WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-23C\r\nSEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THOSE COOLER WATERS...IN COMBINATION\r\nWITH MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 15.2N 120.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.5N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 16.3N 126.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 17.1N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 17.5N 139.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/0600Z 17.5N 144.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE WINDS ARE\r\nAGAIN 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS A DISTINCT WARM EYE SURROUNDED\r\nBY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND NO BANDING FEATURES. THIS\r\nANNULAR PATTERN NORMALLY WOULD SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...COOL WATERS ARE NEARBY...AND EMILIA\r\nSHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH HAS EXPANDED AND HAS FORCED EMILIA\r\nTO MOVE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK...270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST OR\r\nEVEN STRENGTHEN A LITTLE. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD AND IS NOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 15.1N 121.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.3N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 15.5N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 16.0N 128.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 16.0N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 16.0N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 16.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/1200Z 16.0N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE COOL WATERS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO AFFECT EMILIA. THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...\r\nRESULTING IN LOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 90 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ATTEMPTS FOR THE\r\nCONVECTION TO REDEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMILIA COULD BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN FOUR DAYS OR EARLIER.\r\n\r\nEMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WOULD\r\nFAVOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO IMPORTANT\r\nCHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...EMILIA WILL LIKELY BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY\r\nTHE TRADE WINDS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 15.1N 122.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 15.4N 126.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 15.6N 128.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 15.9N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Emilia","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING...WITH THE EYE FILLING \r\nIN BOTH VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORTLY BEFORE 0000\r\nUTC.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ONLY THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS.  THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 75 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS AND\r\nSUPPORTED BY A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 73 KT.  THE\r\nHURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 24-25 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT \r\nWITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  EMILIA\r\nIS FORECAST TO CONTINUE HEADING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REMAINS TO ITS NORTH.  LITTLE CHANGE\r\nWAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE NEW TRACK IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS...ECWMF...AND THE\r\nGFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 15.4N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 15.5N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 15.8N 127.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 16.2N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 16.4N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 16.3N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0000Z 16.3N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA CONTINUES ITS RAPID DEMISE WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  A BLEND\r\nOF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n60 KT.  PERHAPS SOME OF THE WEAKENING IS DUE TO EMILIA MOVING JUST\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF DANIEL.  IN ANY CASE... A FURTHER\r\nDECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER\r\nSSTS OF 24-25C AND FARTHER INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST BLENDS THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS WEAKEN\r\nTHIS STORM FASTER THAN FORECAST BELOW.\r\n\r\nEMILIA HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED A LITTLE...NOW 275/12.  WITH A\r\nSTOUT RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...A\r\nWESTWARD TRACK AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE THE FORWARD SPEED BASED UPON THE\r\nLATEST GUIDANCE.  THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT STILL LAGS A FAIR DISTANCE BEHIND THE ECMWF TRACK.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 15.4N 124.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 15.6N 126.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 15.8N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 16.3N 140.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0600Z 16.3N 150.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EMILIA IS GONE...WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF A SMALL CELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I WILL NOT\r\nBE SURPRISED IF ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SINCE EMILIA WAS A\r\nSTRONG HURRICANE...IT IS ASSUMED THAT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE\r\nWINDS TO SPIN DOWN...AND THE INTENSITY IS STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 55\r\nKNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND EMILIA IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...OR EARLIER.   \r\n\r\nEMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN TRACK OR FORWARD\r\nSPEED ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS A WEAKENING CYCLONE OR A\r\nREMNANT LOW PROGRESSING WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 15.6N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 15.7N 127.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 16.0N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 16.2N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 16.5N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 16.5N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1200Z 16.5N 152.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nEMILIA CONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A PATCH OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED\r\nTO 45 KNOTS BASED ON A DECREASE OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS. SINCE MOST OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER\r\nCOOL WATERS...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND EMILIA COULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EVEN EARLIER. SOME INTERMITTENT\r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE EMILIA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL MOST LIKELY MOVE WESTWARD AT 12 TO 14 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 15.5N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 15.6N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 15.8N 132.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 15.8N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 15.8N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 15.5N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 15.0N 150.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z 15.0N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND OF EMILIA HAS TEMPORARILY HALTED THIS EVENING.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRAVERSING A SMALL TONGUE OF SLIGHTLY\r\nWARMER WATER....25 TO 25.5 DEGREES CELSIUS.  THIS HAS CAUSED A\r\nBIT OF AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SEVERAL BANDS THAT ARE\r\nWRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS\r\n45 KT...AND IS BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND RECENT SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK SATELLITE CI NUMBERS OF 3.0.  WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME \r\nSATURDAY MORNING AS EMILIA PASSES WEST OF THE AXIS OF THE\r\nWARMER WATER AND INTO A STABLE AND DRIER AIRMASS.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE WESTWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nIS NEAR THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 15.5N 128.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 15.5N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 15.6N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 15.6N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 15.6N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 15.3N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 15.0N 151.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0000Z 15.0N 157.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF EMILIA.  HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM SHORTLY BEFORE\r\n0600 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE STILL ABOUT 45 KT...SO\r\nTHIS VALUE WILL STAY AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD RESUME LATER TODAY AS EMILIA MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THIS TRANSITION \r\nCOULD OCCUR SOONER.  \r\n \r\nEMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE TO\r\nTHE WEST NEAR OR SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT SPEED DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AS IT IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nSTAYING ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 15.5N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 15.5N 132.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 15.6N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 15.6N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 15.5N 140.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 15.5N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 15.0N 153.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z 15.0N 158.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":28,"Date":"2012-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED RECENTLY AS EMILIA MOVED OVER A TONGUE OF\r\nRELATIVELY WARM WATERS. EMILIA HAS NOT WEAKENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nEXPECTED TODAY WHILE EMILIA IS STILL INFLUENCED BY THE WARMER\r\nWATERS.  THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE BACK OVER COOL WATERS ON SUNDAY...\r\nAND THE EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD RESUME.  EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS A SHALLOW CYCLONE WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROPICAL TRADE\r\nWINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK TO THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14\r\nKNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 15.5N 131.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 15.5N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 15.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 15.5N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 15.5N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 15.5N 147.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 15.5N 153.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z 15.5N 159.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":29,"Date":"2012-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE BEGINNING\r\nTO BECOME DETACHED...AND MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED\r\nIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO BE VERY\r\nTIGHT AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY STILL NEAR 45 KNOTS. IN FACT...THAT\r\nINTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSURROUNDED BY DRY AIR...AS INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGES...AND IS\r\nMOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR WEAKENING AND EMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.\r\n \r\nEMILIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL TROPICAL TRADE WINDS. THEREFORE...A GENERAL TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 12 TO 14 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.5N 132.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 15.5N 137.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 15.5N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 15.2N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 15.0N 148.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 15.0N 153.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":30,"Date":"2012-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF EMILIA HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE\r\nREMAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AN ASCAT PASS\r\nAROUND 1800Z SUGGESTED THAT PEAK WINDS AT THAT TIME WERE AROUND 40\r\nKT. GIVEN THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE ASCAT PASS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND\r\nOF THE LATEST TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS EMILIA WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS AND\r\nBECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nSSTS AROUND 24C AND THROUGH A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WESTWARD AT 14 KT...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT NEXT FEW DAYS AS EMILIA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 15.7N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 15.7N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 15.6N 139.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 15.5N 142.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 15.3N 145.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 15.0N 150.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 15.0N 156.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Emilia","Adv":31,"Date":"2012-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012\r\n \r\nVERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND IS PRIMARILY OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED\r\nON A RECENT ASCAT PASS THAT SHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT VECTORS OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  AS EMILIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO\r\nSPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION AND BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMANANT LOW\r\nIN 24 HOURS...OR SOONER.\r\n\r\nEMILIA CONTINUES WESTWARD AT AROUND 14 KT.  A WESTWARD TO SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 15.7N 136.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 15.5N 138.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 15.3N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 15.1N 143.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 15.0N 146.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 15.0N 152.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 15.0N 158.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Emilia","Adv":32,"Date":"2012-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP052012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS LINGER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THIS\r\nACTIVITY IS NOT CONSIDERED SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO MAINTAIN\r\nEMILIA AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THE CYCLONE HAS LACKED\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS. EMILIA IS\r\nTHEREFORE CLASSIFIED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW WITH AN\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW OF EMILIA HAS GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED...AND THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS THE WEAKENING\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATING IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...BUT THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR SOONER AS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nEMILIA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 15.6N 138.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 15.5N 140.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 15.4N 143.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 15.3N 146.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 15.2N 149.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 15.0N 155.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 15.0N 161.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF\r\nMANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION THIS\r\nMORNING TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A SERIES OF\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ESPECIALLY A 0430\r\nUTC AMSU OVERPASS...INDICATED THE INNER CORE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME\r\nBETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 290/06 KT. THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS BEEN WOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ASYMMETRY IN THE CENTRAL\r\nDEEP CONVECTION CAUSED BY NORTHEASTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED OVER MEXICO. AFTER THAT...\r\nHOWEVER...A WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE AXIS OVER\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST DIGS\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE TURNING MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nBE ACCOMPANIED BY A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL FOR STEADY DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH\r\nCOOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING DESPITE THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING INTO A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY 96 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 13.6N 106.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 13.9N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 14.5N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.3N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 16.0N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 16.7N 114.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 20.7N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND AN\r\n1121 UTC SSMI PASS REVEALED THAT THE CYCLONE IS DEVELOPING A NEARLY\r\nCLOSED LOW-LEVEL CLOUD RING UNDERNEATH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY.\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS 35 KT...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM ON THAT BASIS.\r\n\r\nA LARGE AND PERSISTENT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS STEERING FABIO ON A WESTWARD\r\nCOURSE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/8 KT.  THE\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SPLIT IN HALF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A\r\nCOUPLE OF CUT-OFF LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST. \r\nUNLIKE ITS PREDECESSORS DANIEL AND EMILIA...FABIO SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BY\r\nDAY 5...INSTEAD OF MAINTAINING A WESTWARD TRACK.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST EXHIBITS\r\nLITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BECOME IDEAL FOR AN\r\nINTENSE STORM...BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE JUST LOW ENOUGH TO\r\nALLOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE.  BASED ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...FABIO SHOULD REACH WATERS COLDER THAN 26C IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS...AND BE OVER 22-23C WATER BY DAY 5...SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE LONGER-RANGE PART OF THE FORECAST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS JUST UNDER THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 13.6N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 14.1N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 15.0N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 16.0N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 19.0N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 21.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO CONSISTS OF AN ELONGATED SPIRAL CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS\r\nFROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE\r\nCOMPLETELY EMBEDDED BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION...THE BAND IS\r\nLONG ENOUGH FOR TAFB AND SAB TO YIELD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0.\r\nTHE WINDS ARE THEREFORE RAISED TO 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A MOTION OF\r\n290/9 KT.  THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING IS THE SAME AS EARLIER\r\nTODAY...WITH FABIO EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nINTO A DEVELOPING BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE MODEL\r\nENVELOPE IS GENERALLY BOUNDED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TO THE EAST AND\r\nTHE GFS AND HWRF FARTHER WEST BY DAYS 4 AND 5...BUT THE SPREAD\r\nAMONG THE MODELS IS QUITE NEGLIGIBLE.  CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS\r\nHIGHER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...\r\nWHICH LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nFABIO APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF SOME NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THE SHEAR RELAXING MUCH\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED\r\nTO OCCUR...HOWEVER...AND FABIO COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN\r\nTHE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE IS THEN EXPECTED TO CROSS A\r\nTIGHT SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT TOWARD COLDER WATER IN ABOUT\r\n3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN QUICKLY TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT\r\nTHE UPPER BOUND OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 14.2N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 14.9N 109.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 15.6N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 16.1N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 16.4N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FABIO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR THAT WAS INHIBITING\r\nDEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST FORMING OVER THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A\r\n13/0015Z SSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED THE PRESENCE OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL\r\nIN THE EAST QUADRANT. A BLEND OF THE SAB AND TAFB FINAL-T NUMBERS\r\nSUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FABIO\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD....THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN QUICKLY AS IT MOVES\r\nOVER MUCH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE SHIPS...HWRF...AND THE LGEM MODELS\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES AND A COUPLE OF TIMELY MICROWAVE OVERPASSES SHOWED\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION WAS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT THAN BEFORE...280/9.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE\r\nIN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWITH TIME DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE ARE EXHIBITED IN THE\r\nAMPLITUDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THE ECMWF AND THE\r\nGFDL INDICATE AN EARLIER AND FASTER TURN INTO THE WEAKNESS...AROUND\r\nDAY 3 OR 4...WHILE THE GFS/HWRF/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW\r\nLESS INFLUENCE AND A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR\r\nDAY 4.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION ADJUSTMENT...AND\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO...BUT TO THE LEFT OF...THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 13.9N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 14.4N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 15.1N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 15.6N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 16.0N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 17.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CDO FEATURE PRESENT ALONG\r\nWITH A LARGE CURVED BAND.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB ARE\r\nBOTH 55 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCDO...LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.   GUIDANCE HAS\r\nBEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATING THAT FABIO WILL BECOME NO MORE THAN A\r\nLOW-END HURRICANE...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CONTINUED\r\nSHEAR.  WEAKENING WILL PROBABLY BEGIN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO\r\nCOOLER WATERS...ALTHOUGH THE WIND SHEAR MIGHT DECREASE AROUND THAT\r\nTIME TO MODERATE THE EFFECT OF THE SSTS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...RESULTING\r\nIN AN INTENSITY PREDICTION THAT ENDS UP A LITTLE LOWER BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8.  A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD STEER FABIO TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A RATHER DEEP TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF\r\nTHE YEAR IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...WHICH CAUSES THE RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN.  FABIO SHOULD RESPOND\r\nBY GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN...BUT\r\nTHERE ARE SOME LARGE TIMING DIFFERENCES ON WHEN THIS WILL OCCUR.  \r\nTHE BULK OF THE COMPUTER MODEL TRACKS HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED TO THE\r\nLEFT...DELAYING THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nSHIFTS WESTWARD AS WELL...AND LIES NEAR A BLEND OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE DUE TO ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 14.2N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 14.8N 110.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 15.4N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 15.8N 113.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 16.0N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 17.1N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 19.3N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 22.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nRECENT SSMI AND SSMIS DATA INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nCLOSED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE HAS\r\nBEEN OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nAT 1200 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAINED AT T3.0...OR 55 KT...AND THE\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT JUMPED TO ABOUT 75 KT WHEN AN ADJUSTMENT FOR THE\r\nMICROWAVE DATA WAS APPLIED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT\r\n60 KT FOR NOW...AND FABIO APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA HELPED TO MORE ACCURATELY LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND FABIO IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT.\r\nA DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS\r\nBEGINNING TO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FABIO...\r\nAND A DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE OREGON COAST SHOULD\r\nHELP TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGH NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT FABIO WILL\r\nULTIMATELY TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH BY DAY 5.\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCE AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING FABIO...BUT IT DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  ALTHOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED\r\nOUT...THE SHIPS RI INDEX FOR A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS IS ONLY AT 2 PERCENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL THEREFORE NOT SHOW RAPID INTENSIFICATION...BUT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS STILL EXPECTED BEFORE FABIO REACHES COLDER WATER\r\nIN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 15.0N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 15.6N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 16.1N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 16.8N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 18.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 20.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF FABIO IS\r\nDISPLACED ABOUT 20 N MI TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...SUGGESTING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE\r\nCYCLONE.  IN SPITE OF THE SHEAR...FABIO HAS STILL BEEN ABLE TO GAIN\r\nSTRENGTH.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 65 KT...AND\r\nTHE UW-CIMSS ADT IS AROUND 75 KT.  IN ADDITION...AMSU DATA FROM\r\nEARLIER TODAY YIELDED AN ESTIMATE OF 72 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS RAISED TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING FABIO FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 2 DAYS.  SINCE THE SHEAR DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE BEEN TOO\r\nMUCH OF A LIMITING FACTOR THUS FAR AND FABIO WILL STILL BE OVER\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE SHIPS RI INDEX IS STILL ONLY 2\r\nPERCENT...SO RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.  FABIO\r\nSHOULD MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE UPDATED\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...AND ONLY ENDS UP BEING A BIT HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFABIO IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO\r\nUNTIL THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST DEEPENS ENOUGH TO SEVER\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALIGNED ALONG 28N.  AT THAT POINT...FABIO\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY DAY 5. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFABIO HAS BECOME A MORE SYMMETRIC CYCLONE...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A 1642 UTC ASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 15.6N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 16.1N 112.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.5N 114.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 16.8N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 19.0N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 24.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 13 2012\r\n \r\nINFRARED BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT AND A 2220 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE PASS\r\nSHOW THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH\r\nOVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURES IN THE EYEWALL OF -80 TO -90C.\r\nJUST RECENTLY...AN OFF-WHITE RAGGED EYE HAS APPEARED IN THE\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 80 KT...SINCE\r\nTHE 75 KT ESTIMATE EARLIER SUPPORTED BY THE TAFB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nAND UW-CIMSS ADT DID NOT INCLUDE THE RECENT APPEARANCE OF THE\r\nRAGGED EYE.  FABIO IS APPARENTLY FENDING-OFF THE NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR THIS EVENING BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED CLOUD PATTERN.  THE\r\nSHIPS RI INDEX INDICATES THAT THE PROBABILITY FABIO WILL UNDERGO\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION HAS INCREASED FROM 2 TO 17 PERCENT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONSIDERS THIS POSSIBILITY AND SHOWS AN INCREASE\r\nTO 95 KT IN 12 HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FABIO PEAKING SHORTLY\r\nTHEREAFTER.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nDECREASING SSTS AND STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.  FABIO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/9 KT.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS\r\nFORECAST TO STEER FABIO IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES...CAUSING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND\r\nALLOWING FABIO TO ULTIMATELY TURN NORTHWARD AROUND DAY 4.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON...BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF...THE TVCE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL...AND CLOSE TO THE GFS-HYBRID. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 15.7N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 16.1N 113.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 16.8N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 17.4N 118.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 19.5N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 21.8N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE WITH FABIO DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...THE EARLIER EYE ATTEMPT ON CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY WAS\r\nUNSUCCESSFUL.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM\r\nEARLIER...SO 80 KT REMAINS THE CURRENT WIND SPEED.  FABIO HAS ONLY\r\nA SHORT WINDOW LEFT TO STRENGTHEN WITH COOLER WATERS ON THE HORIZON\r\nFOR TOMORROW.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HURRICANE IS NEAR\r\nITS PEAK INTENSITY...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE IN THE NEAR-TERM.  A COMBINATION OF COOLER WATERS AND\r\nA STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OF FABIO BY\r\nMONDAY.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT FOUR DAYS DUE TO COLD WATERS AROUND 20C. \r\n \r\nA TIMELY TRMM IMAGE FROM 0615 UTC WAS A GREAT HELP WITH THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITIONING...RESULTING IN A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/9.  THIS\r\nGENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  THIS RIDGE SHOULD BREAK AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO A DEEP\r\nTROUGH FORMING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES...CAUSING FABIO TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN THE LONG-RANGE.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NUDGED A BIT\r\nTO THE EAST AFTER DAY 3 BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nECMWF MODEL.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 16.0N 113.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 16.2N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 17.1N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 17.7N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 19.6N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO IS DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY...AND RECENT\r\nAMSU DATA INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO HAVE A CLOSED\r\nEYEWALL.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KT BASED\r\nON DVORAK NUMBERS AND ESTIMATES OF 76 AND 80 KT FROM THE AMSU DATA.\r\nTHE IMPACTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ON FABIO SHOULD LESSEN AFTER\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT BY THAT TIME...THE HURRICANE WILL BE LOCATED\r\nOVER OVER SUB-26C WATER.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nOVER THE COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY.  THE CYCLONE COULD THEN\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/9 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HEADING\r\nIS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE FABIO REMAINS TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST\r\nCOAST SHOULD PRODUCE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BY DAY 2...AT WHICH TIME\r\nFABIO WILL BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD.  THERE\r\nIS SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS AND THE ECMWF.\r\nTHE LATTER SHOWS A SHARPER AND SLOWER TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.  BUT\r\nALL IN ALL...THE MODELS ARE GREATER-THAN-NORMAL AGREEMENT...AND THE\r\nNHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 16.2N 114.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 16.8N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 17.3N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 18.2N 119.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 23.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO STILL HAS A RAGGED EYE...AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED\r\nOVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SINCE THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STEADY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING HELD AT 80 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF FABIO IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE\r\nTHE HURRICANE ON A TEMPORARY WESTWARD MOTION...OR 280/9 KT.  A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND HELP TO ERODE THE RIDGE OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...AND FABIO SHOULD RESPOND BY TURNING NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTHWARD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.  WHEN FABIO DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW IN\r\n4-5 DAYS...ITS NORTHWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE IMPEDED BY\r\nNORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE FORECAST HEDGES\r\nON THE SIDE OF THE MORE SOUTHERN ECMWF AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26-27C WATER...AND EVEN COLDER WATER LOOMS\r\nAHEAD.  DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE\r\nGRADIENT NEAR FABIO...THE HURRICANE MAY ACTUALLY REACH COOLER\r\nWATERS SOONER THAN EARLIER FORECAST GIVEN ITS RECENT WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY...AND\r\nFABIO COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY IN WINDS SHOWN BY THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS...WHICH ARE IN ALMOST PERFECT AGREEMENT. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 16.2N 115.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-07-15 00:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n500 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FABIO HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME MORE\r\nCIRCULAR AND DISTINCT...AND CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE\r\nCOOLED AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC. A SPECIAL DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT STRENGTHENING...THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD.\r\n \r\nNO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND WIND RADII\r\nFORECASTS...OTHER THE ADDITION OF 64-KT RADII AT 36 HOURS. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0000Z 16.4N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 17.0N 118.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 18.6N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 21.0N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE RELEASE OF THE SPECIAL ADVISORY\r\nAROUND 0000 UTC. THE 20 N MI EYE REMAINS CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...AND THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN IS FAIRLY\r\nSYMMETRIC. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 90\r\nKT...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT THAT VALUE.\r\n \r\nIT SEEMS LIKELY THAT FABIO IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AS THE EYE\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE 26C ISOTHERM. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER SUB-26C WATERS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...AND THE SSTS ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK STEADILY DECREASE BEYOND THAT TIME. THESE\r\nUNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH A DRIER AIR MASS\r\nAHEAD OF FABIO SHOULD CAUSE SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4\r\nDAYS WHEN IT IS OVER WATERS OF ABOUT 20C AND ENCOUNTERS AND AN\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nLGEM.\r\n \r\nFABIO IS STILL MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nHANGS ON TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO BREAK DOWN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE\r\nFABIO TO SLOW DOWN AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST LIES CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 16.4N 115.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 16.7N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 17.2N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 18.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 19.0N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 23.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z 25.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO IS MAINTAINING A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN \r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS OF -50 C OR COLDER.  USING DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS\r\nKEPT AT 90 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO MAINTAIN THIS\r\nINTENSITY MUCH LONGER...AS IT WILL BE TRAVERSING PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND MOVING INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.  FABIO SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 1-2 DAYS AND DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4...OR SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM RUN AND IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE ANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS TAKING PLACE...AND THE MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 285/8.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY DIGGING NEAR\r\nAND OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CREATE A BREAK OR WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 120W LONGITUDE.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...FABIO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD WITH\r\nDECREASING FORWARD SPEED AS IT NEARS THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT\r\nFAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 16.6N 116.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.0N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 17.8N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 18.8N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 22.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 25.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z 26.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO HAS NOT YET BEGUN TO WEAKEN.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS RATHER\r\nSYMMETRIC WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS OF -50\r\nTO -60 DEGREES CELSIUS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI-NUMBERS AND A RECENT\r\nCIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED AT 90 KT.  FABIO WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.  FABIO IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY AND DEGENERATE TO A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE TRACK\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FABIO IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...THEN NORTHWARD...AS A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA PRODUCES A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON \r\nTHIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE \r\nPREDICTED FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD.\r\nTHE HWRF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. \r\nFOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND THE SLOWER ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 16.9N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 17.4N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 18.3N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 19.4N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 20.6N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 23.3N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 25.2N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z 26.0N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nLESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A FEW BREAKS OR DRY\r\nSLOTS EVIDENT OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nESTIMATE OF 85 KT. THE WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS FABIO MOVES OVER MUCH COLDER WATER\r\nAND INTO A PROGRESSIVELY DRIER ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND\r\nBRINGS FABIO BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3 WHEN IT\r\nWILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C. DISSIPATION IS NOW\r\nSHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD\r\nCAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN. THIS STEERING PATTERN\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FABIO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...AND THEN NORTHWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A BIT TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF RUN AND THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 17.4N 118.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 18.0N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 19.0N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 20.2N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 21.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 24.4N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 26.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 15 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE NORTH SIDE OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED AS CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES AROUND THE EYE WARM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS FABIO MOVES\r\nACROSS A SHARP SST GRADIENT. FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER THAT\r\nTIME AS THE CYCLONE REACHES SUB-23C WATERS BY 24 HOURS WITH EVEN\r\nCOOLER SSTS AHEAD. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFTER 48 HOURS\r\nSHOULD SHEAR OFF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND FABIO IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN 4\r\nOR 5 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 300/09. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nFABIO WILL GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD INTO AN EXPANDING BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD\r\nINTO A TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST. AFTER THE CYCLONE SHEARS\r\nAPART...THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 17.8N 119.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 19.6N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 20.9N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 22.3N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 25.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 26.2N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012\r\n\r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND CONTINUES AS DEEP CONVECTION IS DECREASING IN\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE HURRICANE.  THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 70\r\nKT REPRESENTS A BLEND OF DVORAK FINAL T AND CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  FABIO IS PROJECTED TO REACH OCEAN\r\nWATERS COOLER THAN 29 DEG C WITHIN LESS THAN 48 HOURS...AND AS A\r\nRESULT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW SHOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 2...AND THIS IS IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH LGEM GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE VERY COOL WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES...FABIO COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN SHOWN\r\nHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM\r\nMOTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS PRODUCING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE ALONG 20-25N LATITUDE...AND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nFABIO SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD INTO THE BREAK.  LATER...THE CYCLONE\r\nCOULD SLIDE SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF NORTH AS IT BEGINS TO FEEL THE\r\nEFFECT OF THE TROUGH.  BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE TOP PORTION OF\r\nTHE WEAKENING CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nTHIS WOULD LEAVE THE REMAINING REMNANT LOW MOVING SLOWLY IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA UNTIL IT LOSES ITS\r\nIDENTITY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n\r\nSOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF\r\nFABIO SHOULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 18.3N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 19.0N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.3N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 23.0N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 25.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fabio","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF FABIO REMAINS EVIDENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...\r\nALTHOUGH IT HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD FILLED IN EARLY\r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE\r\nEYE IS GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 23 TO 24 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...WHICH IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB.  THE RATE\r\nOF WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN AS FABIO MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER\r\nWATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nON TUESDAY SHOULD ALSO ASSIST IN THE RAPID DEMISE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMANT LOW IN 48\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED AS\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  A WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nALONG THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...FABIO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOME A \r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nSOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF\r\nFABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 18.9N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 19.9N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 21.4N 120.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 23.0N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 24.4N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES NEAR 23C. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE EYEWALL OF FABIO HAS\r\nERODED...BUT A PERSISTENT CURVED BAND EXISTS OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nESTIMATE OF 60 KT. THIS MAKES FABIO A TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE\r\nIS INGESTING DRIER AIR TO ITS WEST AS SEEN IN VISIBLE AND TOTAL\r\nPRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS STABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH EVEN\r\nCOOLER WATER AHEAD SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO. FABIO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS\r\nAND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO TURN NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/8\r\nKT. A CONTINUED TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSOME MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF\r\nFABIO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE\r\nADJUSTED INWARD BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 1718 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 19.7N 120.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 20.7N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 22.4N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 23.9N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 25.1N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 26.8N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 16 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FABIO HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS THE CLOUD STRUCTURE STEADILY DEGENERATES DUE\r\nTO THE CYCLONE INGESTING COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND ALSO\r\nMOVES OVER SUB-22C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 55 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.6/57 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/07 KT. FABIO HAS MADE A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT IS ORIENTED EAST-TO-WEST ALONG 20N\r\nLATITUDE. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST EXPECTED\r\nAFTER THAT AND CONTINUING UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.\r\n\r\nFABIO WILL CONTINUE TO INGEST DRIER AND INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE AIR\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES COLDER THAN 20C BY 24 HOURS OR SO. THESE UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD COMBINE WITH INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. FABIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH\r\nDISSIPATION COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND\r\nSOUTHERN NEVADA IN 48-96 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL\r\nPOTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 20.3N 120.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 21.4N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 23.0N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 24.3N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 25.4N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nFABIO. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS STILL VIGOROUS...AND THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS.  BECAUSE FABIO IS\r\nALREADY MOVING OVER 22C WATERS...WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS...OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nFABIO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTH AND A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO. THIS GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST THEREAFTER. BY THEN...FABIO WILL BE A REMNANT LOW\r\nAND PROBABLY MOVES ERRATICALLY EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS\r\nTHOSE AREAS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 21.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 22.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 24.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 25.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 26.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO IS SPINNING DOWN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 22C. ONLY\r\nA SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION IS LINGERING TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS CONTINUE\r\nTO FALL...AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED TO 40 KT. THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS APPEAR TO BE\r\nDECOUPLING DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE EXPECTED\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR...ALONG WITH EVEN COLDER WATERS AHEAD AND A DRY\r\nAIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER\r\nTODAY AND A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE REMNANT LOW LOSING ITS\r\nIDENTITY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO\r\nIS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE THE\r\nRAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 22.3N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 23.6N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 25.2N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 26.5N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 27.6N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fabio","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...HOWEVER IT IS STILL PRODUCING\r\nAN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWING\r\nDECREASING AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  INCREASING SHEAR...COOL WATERS...AND AN UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD CAUSE FABIO TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SOON...AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING WELL WEST OF THE CENTRAL COAST\r\nOF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nFABIO IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER \r\nSPEED THAN BEFORE.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD TO\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 6 TO 8 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE UPDATED\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO...BUT A LITTLER SLOWER THAN...THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FABIO\r\nIS STILL EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS MOISTURE COULD ENHANCE\r\nTHE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THAT REGION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 23.0N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 24.2N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 25.7N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 27.0N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 28.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 17 2012\r\n \r\nFABIO HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AND IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STATUS OWING TO A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS TO -50C LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. FABIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT...AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH\r\nA LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFABIO IS NOT LONG FOR THIS WORLD SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-20C SSTS AND INTO A STRONG SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE...FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND\r\nFABIO SHOULD BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY COMPLETE DISSIPATION IN 48-72 HOURS...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SLOWER MOVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS...THE DECOUPLED REMNANT MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN\r\nTHE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...WHICH COULD ENHANCE RAINFALL POTENTIAL\r\nACROSS THOSE AREAS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 23.9N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 25.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 26.4N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 27.6N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fabio","Adv":26,"Date":"2012-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012\r\n\r\nFABIO CONTINUES TO GENERATE A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION\r\nABOUT 130 N MI NNW OF THE CENTER.  A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED\r\n30 KT WINDS EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT.  THE CENTER IS NOW OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20C...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT FABIO WILL\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST\r\nTO TOTALLY DISSIPATED AFTER 48 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BEFORE\r\nTHE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER\r\n48 HR...THE REMNANT MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED\r\nMOISTURE PLUME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA AND NEVADA IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THIS COULD ENHANCE\r\nRAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 24.9N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 25.9N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 27.0N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 27.9N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 28.6N 119.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fabio","Adv":27,"Date":"2012-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP062012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 18 2012\r\n \r\nCORRECTED TYPOS IN THIRD PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nTHE REMAINING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH FABIO ARE DISPLACED OVER 100 N\r\nMI TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND THIS SYSTEM\r\nNO LONGER HAS THE CRITERIA NEEDED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHEREFORE...FABIO IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 25 KT. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT\r\nREMAINS OVER COLD WATER AND IN A STRONG WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. \r\n\r\nTHE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR 9 KT. A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nTHE CYCLONE OPENS INTO A TROUGH. \r\n\r\nDOPPLER RADAR IMAGES FROM SAN DIEGO SHOW SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY\r\nAPPROACHING THE AREA. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE RAINFALL\r\nPOTENTIAL IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES IN THAT REGION. MARINE\r\nFORECASTS OF THE REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS PRODUCTS\r\nISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 25.7N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 26.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 27.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 28.3N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MEXICAN COAST\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO GAIN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SOMEWHAT\r\nSMALL...TAFB AND SAB WERE ABLE TO PROVIDE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0.\r\nTHE LOW IS THEREFORE BEING UPGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 295/10 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nBEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND\r\nEXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO HOLD FIRM IN THE VICINITY OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE\r\n5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nBROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST\r\nON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AND POTENTIALLY SLOW THE WESTWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST INDICATES A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOVEMENT DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A DECELERATING\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THEREAFTER.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nHIGH GIVEN THE LESS-THAN-NORMAL SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS OVER WATER OF ABOUT 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nLIGHT SHEAR.  A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA IS MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE DEPRESSION TO EXPAND WESTWARD. \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AT THE HIGHER END\r\nOF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nLOCATED IN A MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...AND THE\r\nCIRCULATION COULD BECOME DECOUPLED WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nTUGGED BACK TO THE EAST.  WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED AT THE\r\nLATTER STAGES OF THE FORECAST.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.3N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 14.9N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 15.7N 114.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 16.5N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 17.0N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 17.0N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n\r\nCORRECTED DEPRESSION TO STORM IN SECOND PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nFIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E\r\nHAS DEVELOPED A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND AN OUTER CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nIN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200\r\nUTC WERE 30 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB.  BASED ON THE INCREASED\r\nORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 295/10.  THE STORM IS CURRENTLY\r\nBEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CURRENT MOTION TO CONTINUE.  IN\r\nTHE LONGER TERM...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF\r\nBROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST\r\nFROM 72-120 HR...POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM\r\nERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS CROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE\r\nPACIFIC.  THE UKMET AND ECMWF SHOW GILMA TURNING EASTWARD IN\r\nRESPONSE TO THIS DEVELOPMENT...WHILE THE GFS AND NOGAPS SHOW A\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN SHOWING A DECELERATING WESTWARD\r\nMOTION FROM 72-120 HR.  THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DURING THE\r\nFIRST 48 HR...THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nGILMA IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF ABOUT 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nLIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...REACHING WATERS\r\nOF 26C IN ABOUT 72 HR.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST UP TO THE PEAK INTENSITY AT 72 HR...AND SHOWS A FASTER\r\nWEAKENING RATE AFTER THAT TIME. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.8N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 15.5N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 16.3N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 17.0N 117.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 17.3N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 17.5N 121.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 17.0N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n\r\nGILMA HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH\r\nA CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER.  THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO A POSSIBLY CONSERVATIVE 40 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/10.  GILMA IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE\r\nHAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE FOR 36-48 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC\r\nFLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC...POSSIBLY IN\r\nRESPONSE TO ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO OR ITS REMNANTS\r\nCROSSING MEXICO AND RE-DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC.  WHILE THE UKMET\r\nSTILL SHOWS GILMA TURNING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THIS\r\nDEVELOPMENT...THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT THAT GILMA WILL CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK NOW CALLS FOR AN\r\nERRATIC WESTWARD DRIFT AFTER 72 HR AND IS NUDGED A LITTLE NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH DURING THE\r\nFIRST 36 HR...THEN DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nGILMA IS CURRENTLY OVER WATER OF NEAR 29C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nLIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  WHILE THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE STORM IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...REACHING WATERS\r\nOF 26C IN ROUGHLY 48 HR.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GILMA TO PEAK IN\r\n36-48 HR...AND THEN AGAIN SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING RATE AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.  IF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT RATE CONTINUES...GILMA COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 15.1N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 15.7N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 16.9N 118.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 17.2N 119.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 17.5N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 07 2012\r\n \r\nGILMA IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM\r\nCONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 3.0 OR 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE NEAR 50\r\nKT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THE HIGH END OF THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES GIVEN THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT OF ITS APPEARANCE IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS AS GILMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM\r\nWATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR. AFTER 36 HOURS...\r\nGILMA WILL BE MOVING OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nINDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS GILMA REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE\r\nIT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 11 KT ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...GILMA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DUE TO THE\r\nPOTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...IN PART\r\nASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WILL BE THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE\r\nERNESTO...NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND\r\nLIES CLOSE TO THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...TV15.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 15.4N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 15.9N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 17.0N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.5N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 18.2N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 19.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n \r\nA 0512Z METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE CONVECTION\r\nOF GLIMA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A PARTIALLY\r\nCLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND A WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BAND TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nIMPROVED MICROWAVE PRESENTATION SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 60 KT.  THE WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS\r\nLOW...THEREFORE...GILMA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS. LATER ON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C AND INTO A\r\nMORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WHICH AGREES WITH A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE LGEM...SHIPS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING IN\r\nTHE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PRODUCED BY A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED...DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW INTERACTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE\r\nERNESTO...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN\r\nPACIFIC AROUND DAY 3.  THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW CONSIDERABLY OR STALL...AND THIS\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HOUR FORECAST POINTS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TVCE AND HFIP TV15 CONCENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 15.6N 116.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 16.2N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 16.8N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 17.4N 119.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 17.9N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 19.5N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 20.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n\r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GILMA HAS A WELL-DEVELOPED\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENT IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 60 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nIS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED\r\nBY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nSHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A DECREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INTERACTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF\r\nATLANTIC HURRICANE ERNESTO...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE\r\nPACIFIC IN 60-72 HR.  THE GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY DIVERGENT BY 120\r\nHR...WITH THE ECMWF AS FAR WEST AS 126W...THE UKMET AS FAR EAST AS\r\n116W...AND THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SCATTERED BETWEEN THESE\r\nEXTREMES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THIS TIME CALLS FOR A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH THE\r\nNEW TRACK LYING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nGILMA IS CURRENTLY NEAR SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 28C...AND\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER WATERS.  FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN FOR\r\nANOTHER 12-24 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LOWER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GILMA TO BE\r\nA HURRICANE FROM 12-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION BY 96 HR.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 16.0N 117.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.5N 118.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 17.1N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 17.6N 120.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 18.2N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 19.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n\r\nGILMA HAS BEEN ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE\r\nDAY...SHOWING MIXED SIGNALS ABOUT ITS INTENSITY.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB. \r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nAND CIRA AT COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY HAVE BEEN 57-63 KT. \r\nALSO...EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED AT BEST A PARTIAL EYEWALL\r\nUNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WHILE LATER VISIBLE IMAGES HAVE\r\nHINTED AT EYE FORMATION.  GIVEN THE AMBIGUITIES...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nWHILE THE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...A\r\nBAND OF CIRRUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THE STORM FROM THE NORTHEAST\r\nSUGGESTS SOME LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OCCURRING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/9 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED\r\nBY A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nSHOULD KEEP GILMA ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AT A DECREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF BROAD LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONIC FLOW...POSSIBLY INCLUDING THE REMNANTS OF ATLANTIC\r\nHURRICANE ERNESTO...FORMING TO THE EAST OF GILMA.  THE LATEST\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS FEATURE HAVING LESS OF AN IMPACT ON\r\nGILMA THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND AS A RESULT THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN\r\nBEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS MODEL.\r\n \r\nGILMA IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 27C...AND\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS.  A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR GILMA TO BECOME A HURRICANE. \r\nSTEADY WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 24 HR...WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BY 96 HR AND TO DEGENERATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...\r\nBUT A LITTLE ABOVE...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 16.1N 117.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.5N 118.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 17.2N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 17.8N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 18.4N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 20.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 20.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gilma","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 08 2012\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\nTHE COVERAGE OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND\r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE OCCASIONAL HINTS OF AN EYE IN VISIBLE AND\r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE\r\n77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nVALUES ARE CONSIDERABLY LOWER...NEAR 50 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE\r\nESTIMATES ARE THE BASIS FOR INCREASING GILMA TO A 65-KT HURRICANE. \r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT AS IT\r\nWILL REMAIN OVER WATER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 26C AND IN A\r\nGENERALLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED BEYOND 12 HOURS AS GILMA MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS INSIST THAT GILMA WILL SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\nTHIS CHANGE IN MOTION IS LIKELY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST ALONG 130W LONGITUDE AND A\r\nWEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SLOW WESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS SHOWN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHEN GILMA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.1N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 16.6N 119.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 17.4N 120.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 18.6N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 19.6N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 20.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 20.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gilma","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nYESTERDAY AFTERNOON...A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM THE FNMOC\r\nSATELLITE DATA TROPICAL CYCLONE PAGE INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL OF\r\nGILMA WAS PARTIALLY OPEN IN THE NORTH PORTION.  RECENTLY...A 0400\r\nUTC SSMIS OVERPASS REVEALED A FULLY CLOSED EYEWALL...ALBEIT...A\r\nLITTLE THIN IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. BASED ON THE INNER CORE\r\nIMPROVEMENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND A BLEND OF THE TAFB\r\nAND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO 70 KT.  THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE IN 24 HOURS\r\nOR SO AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SSTS\r\nAND MOVES INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE\r\nLGEM AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS AND CALLS FOR GILMA TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 DAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6.  A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA APPEARS TO\r\nBE ERODING THE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF GILMA. \r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE HAS CAUSED THE CYCLONE TO SLOW\r\nITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THIS WEAKENED STEERING PATTERN WILL PERSIST\r\nTHROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  A SUBSEQUENT TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS ALSO EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A RESULT OF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED GROWING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  AROUND DAY 4...GILMA\r\nIS FORECAST TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE\r\nEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AS A WEAK...SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY LIES BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE\r\nTVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT AND 50-KT WIND RADII WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON A\r\n0452 UTC ASCAT PASS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 16.2N 118.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 17.4N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 18.1N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 18.8N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 19.9N 121.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 20.6N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0600Z 20.6N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gilma","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nAN 0826 UTC TRMM PASS INDICATED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GILMA\r\nIS LOCATED ABOUT HALF A DEGREE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED...AND THE CIRCULATION IS TILTED TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH\r\nHEIGHT.  WITH THIS STRUCTURE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nWEAKENED A BIT.  THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES...WITH CI NUMBERS FROM BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nMETHODS RANGING BETWEEN 55 AND 75 KT.  IN ADDITION...TWO RECENT\r\nAMSU PASSES YIELDED ESTIMATES OF 60 AND 71 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.  THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE SUBSEQUENT WEAKENING COULD BE FAIRLY QUICK.  THERE IS GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AMONG THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS GILMA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW AS EARLY AS DAY 3 AND DISSIPATING\r\nBY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS NOW NORTHWESTWARD...OR 305/6 KT.\r\nGILMA IS LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT 3 DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. \r\nONCE A REMNANT LOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN WESTWARD UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nSIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BEING THE MOST NORTHERN\r\nAND SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS...RESPECTIVELY.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS BUT NOT QUITE AS FAST...AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 16.9N 118.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 17.4N 119.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 18.1N 119.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 18.9N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 19.6N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 21.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF GILMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEGRADE. \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION NO LONGER\r\nCOMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS\r\nARE ALSO SLOWLY COMING DOWN AND SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 60 KT. \r\nGILMA IS MOVING TOWARDS INCREASINGLY COLDER WATER AND APPEARS TO BE\r\nINGESTING MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST...SO CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON A STEADY\r\nDOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY...AND GILMA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nGILMA HAS TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWED DOWN WITH A MOTION OF\r\n310/5 KT.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE\r\nBROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST OF\r\nMEXICO.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD STEER GILMA GENERALLY NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT FOR THIS CYCLE...\r\nAND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS NUDGED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 17.2N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 17.7N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 18.4N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 19.2N 120.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 19.9N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 20.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF GILMA HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE\r\nINTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM AND WILL MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2 TO\r\n3 DAYS. GILMA SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS IDENTICAL\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS. \r\n\r\nGILMA APPEARS TO HAVE JOGGED A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/05. OVERALL THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE NHC TRACK PHILOSOPHY. GILMA SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE LEFT\r\nOF THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 17.6N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 18.2N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 19.6N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 20.3N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n\r\nCOLD WATERS APPEAR TO BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON GILMA.  WHILE THE\r\nREMNANTS OF AN EYE ARE STILL PRESENT...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS\r\nWEAKENED AND BECOME ASYMMETRIC DURING THE PAST FEW HR.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB.  BASED\r\nON THE DECAY OF THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nGILMA HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HR...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 355/5. AS\r\nMENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GILMA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM DISSIPATES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nGILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...WITH THE WEAKENING RATE INCREASING\r\nAFTER 36 HR DUE TO AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GILMA TO BECOME A DEPRESSION BY 48 HR\r\nAND A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HR...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO\r\nDISSIPATE COMPLETELY AFTER 72 HR AS IT GETS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER\r\nWEATHER SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 18.4N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 18.9N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 19.7N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 20.3N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 20.8N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 21.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-08-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER OF GILMA OVER THE LAST\r\nFEW HOURS...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT\r\nMAINTAINING THE INTENSITY AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GILMA IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE COLDER WATER AND\r\nINCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGIN TO TAKE THEIR TOLL. GILMA IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY SATURDAY EVENING AND\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY MORNING AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO ITS EAST. \r\n\r\nGILMA HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WEST OF NORTH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/4 KT. GILMA IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH RETREATS EASTWARD. THE\r\nLATEST FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST EARLY IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD BASED ON THE CURRENT MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nREASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 18.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 19.4N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 20.1N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 20.6N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 21.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 21.7N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER SCHAUER/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-08-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE STILL SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 1800 UTC STILL SUPPORT AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS BUT SINCE THEN...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO\r\nGRADUALLY DIMINISH...AND WINDS ARE PROBABLY DOWN TO 50 KNOTS. GILMA\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKEN.\r\nMOST LIKELY...GILMA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO. \r\n\r\nGILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND MOVE\r\nMORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 19.2N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 19.8N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 20.5N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 21.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 21.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 22.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-08-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 10 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE MIDDLE- AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nOF GILMA ARE BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE.  SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nSTILL SUPPORT 50 KT AT THIS TIME...BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE\r\nSOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF COOLING WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 36 HR...AND IT\r\nCOULD OCCUR SOONER GIVEN THE 23C SSTS ANTICIPATED AT THAT TIME.  \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THAT GILMA IS MOVING AROUND 340/4. \r\nA GRADUAL LEFTWARD BEND IN THE TRACK AT ABOUT THE SAME SPEED SHOULD\r\nOCCUR AS GILMA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nLIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...JUST\r\nA BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 19.5N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 20.0N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 20.6N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 21.1N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 21.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gilma","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-08-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GILMA HAS COMPLETELY WITHERED AWAY\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nFALLING QUICKLY...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 40 KT\r\nBASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GILMA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER COLD WATER AND IN A RELATIVELY STRONG\r\nWIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO DEGENERATE\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES\r\nTHIS COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT\r\nLOW OPENING INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nGILMA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST AS THE\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME\r\nINTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS AT 0552 UTC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 20.0N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 20.6N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 21.2N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 21.6N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 21.8N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gilma","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-08-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n \r\nGILMA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...AND GILMA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 4 KNOTS. NOW\r\nTHAT GILMA HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 20.2N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 20.7N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 21.3N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 21.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Gilma","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-08-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP072012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n \r\nGILMA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS THAT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS...AND IT IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE HAD A VIGOROUS CIRCULATION\r\nEARLIER...WINDS COULD STILL BE AT 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO SUBSIDE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS. NOW\r\nTHAT GILMA IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED MORE\r\nTO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER ON GILMA.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 20.6N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 21.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-11 17:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n1000 AM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF\r\nERNESTO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS INDICATED BY MICROWAVE DATA\r\nAND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS STILL\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THERE IS ENOUGH CIRCULATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO\r\nBE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THERE\r\nIS VERY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE DEPRESSION...AND\r\nCONSEQUENTLY ONLY A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. \r\n\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE....AND GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY.\r\nTHEREFORE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD\r\nOR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD THE CYCLONE WILL BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND IT COULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1700Z 17.5N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 17.7N 106.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 17.7N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 17.5N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 18.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION IS LARGE AND WELL\r\nDEFINED...THE CENTER IS STILL A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  THE\r\nLARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS WANED A\r\nBIT...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 30 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR NOW...BUT RECENT SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM MANZANILLO AND AN OFFSHORE SHIP SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS PROBABLY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 280/9 KT.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND\r\nBUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN OFF THE U.S.\r\nWEST COAST ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESPOND BY\r\nTURNING BACK TO THE WEST OR EVEN NORTHWEST.  SINCE THE ECMWF\r\nDEPICTS A STRONGER STORM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT\r\nPULLS THE STORM FARTHER NORTH INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE COMPARED\r\nTO THE OTHER MODELS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TV15 AND IS JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF THE DEPRESSION\r\nARE ABOUT 28-29C AND MORE THAN WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW THE RATE OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE NEW WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS STILL WELL ABOVE THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...NONE OF WHICH INDICATE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING ON THIS\r\nFORECAST CYCLE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 17.7N 107.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 17.9N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 17.9N 110.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 17.6N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 17.3N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 20.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 11 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED NEAR AND\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF THE LARGE CYCLONE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS\r\nALONG WITH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL STORM...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAFFECT HECTOR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE\r\nAMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING THAT CAN OCCUR. AFTER THAT TIME...WHILE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COULD WEAKEN...HECTOR WILL NEAR VERY\r\nCLOSE TO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS\r\nABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE FORECAST\r\nSIZE OF THE STORM HAS BEEN INCREASED.\r\n\r\nIT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT HECTOR\r\nAPPEARS TO BE MOVING 290/11...A BIT FASTER AND MORE TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST THAN EARLIER. A RIDGE OVER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THAT TIME. IN A FEW DAYS...THE RIDGE COULD\r\nWEAKEN AND STEER THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC\r\nPATTERN...THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES EVEN BY 24 HOURS AS TO HOW\r\nQUICKLY THE STORM WILL TURN SOUTH OF WEST...MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF HECTOR INTERACTING WITH THE ACTIVE ITCZ NEAR MEXICO.\r\nWITH THE MODEL DIVERGENCE...IT IS USUALLY BEST TO STAY NEAR THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC\r\nFORECAST THIS CYCLE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 18.5N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 18.8N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 18.5N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 18.4N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 18.8N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED\r\nCONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER...AND\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME ILL-DEFINED.  USING A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 40 KT.  THE RATHER SHARP EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS\r\nIS HIGHLY SUGGESTIVE OF EASTERLY SHEAR...AND IN FACT THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL DIAGNOSES THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF HECTOR WEAKENING...RESULTING IN A\r\nREDUCTION OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 72 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME... HOWEVER...\r\nHECTOR SHOULD BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS WHICH\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN MOST OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nWITH INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER VERY\r\nPRECISELY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/10. \r\nMUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nAND A TURN TOWARD THE LEFT AS HECTOR APPEARS TO BE INTERACTING WITH\r\nA BROADER CYCLONIC GYRE OR A TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD THIS INFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN...AND THE\r\nMOTION SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF TRACKS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 18.6N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 18.7N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 18.5N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 18.4N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 18.5N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 19.4N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 21.5N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL STORM. CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nAND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO\r\nTHE EAST OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH\r\n45 KT AT 1200 UTC...BUT GIVEN THE POOR STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN\r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40\r\nKT. ALTHOUGH HECTOR IS OVER WARM WATER...THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR SHOULD PREVENT THE STORM FROM STRENGTHENING SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ONLY SHOWING\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST DURING THAT TIME PERIOD CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND A FEW DAYS...HECTOR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AND WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOLDER WATERS AFTER THAT. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 3.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES AND A SSMIS OVERPASS AT 1140 UTC SUGGEST THAT HECTOR\r\nWAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION...ALBEIT UNCERTAIN...IS 270/9. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED AFTER 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF HECTOR WEAKENS DUE TO A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL MOTION AND\r\nPOSITION AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 18.3N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 18.3N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 18.2N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 18.3N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 18.7N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 19.4N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 20.3N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012\r\n \r\nHECTOR REMAINS A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE \r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW EXPOSED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE \r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME EVEN MORE SEPARATED FROM THE CENTER\r\nAND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.  A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT DVORAK\r\nDATA T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT\r\n40 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AND IT APPEARS THAT HECTOR WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED AND DOES NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nHECTOR HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 270/6.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTH.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS WELL WEST OF CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE HECTOR TO DECELERATE EVEN MORE AND TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER  \r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THOSE\r\nMODELS DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 18.1N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 18.1N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 18.1N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 18.2N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 18.4N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 18.9N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 20.3N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 12 2012\r\n\r\nSTRONG EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO PUSH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE CENTER OF HECTOR...LEAVING IT EXPOSED. ALTHOUGH\r\nSATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING...SOCORRO ISLAND RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 995 MB AND 25 KT...SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE STRONGER EARLIER TODAY. THEREFORE\r\nTHE INITIAL WINDS ARE LEFT AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MODERATE OR\r\nSTRONG SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE SINCE SSTS ONLY\r\nGRADUALLY COOL ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THIS THINKING IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nHECTOR IS LIKELY TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 4 OR 5 DAYS...\r\nIF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED CENTER HAS PROVIDED A RELIABLE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 270/5. HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...CAUSING HECTOR TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IT HAS SHRUNK SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE\r\nLATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPREDICTION...AND LIES NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL AND HFIP CONSENSUS\r\nAIDS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 18.1N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 18.1N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 18.2N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 18.3N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 18.4N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 19.1N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 19.8N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012\r\n \r\nHECTOR CONTINUES TO BE BLASTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE\r\nLIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE\r\nCENTER IS QUICKLY BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW STORM\r\nSTRENGTH...BUT THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT BASED ON CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY VALUES FROM TAFB.  DYNAMICAL MODELS NOW INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS\r\nHECTOR DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS. HOWEVER...\r\nUNLESS THE CYCLONE DEVELOPS A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LATER TODAY...HECTOR COULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE SUN HAS SET OVER THE AREA...THE CENTER IS MUCH MORE\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AUTOMATED STATION AT\r\nSOCORRO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER RECENTLY PASSED TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE ISLAND.  BASED ON THESE SYNOPTIC DATA AND SATELLITE FIXES...MY\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/6.  A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF HECTOR SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY AROUND 72\r\nHOURS...A MID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COULD\r\nINDUCE A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD THE REMNANT LOW OF ERNESTO SHOULD TURN BACK TOWARD\r\nA WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SHALLOW CYCLONE FOLLOWS THE\r\nLOWER-LAYER FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 18.1N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 18.1N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 18.1N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 18.3N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 18.6N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 19.4N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 13 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...BUT IT REMAINS DISPLACED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500\r\nUTC SUGGESTED THAT HECTOR COULD HAVE BEEN A LITTLE WEAKER THAN\r\nESTIMATED EARLIER...BUT SINCE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE\r\nSINCE THEN...HECTOR IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. THIS INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT DVORAK SHEAR-PATTERN\r\nESTIMATES OF 35 KT. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN\r\nSHOWING HECTOR GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nTREND IN THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS HECTOR WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND TO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nHECTOR IS STILL MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS IT LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE\r\nRIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL\r\nHUNDRED MILES WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 18.1N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 18.1N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 18.2N 114.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 18.3N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 18.6N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 19.5N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 20.3N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012\r\n \r\nHECTOR HAS MADE A LITTLE COMEBACK. DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED\r\nDURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THERE IS NOW LESS SEPARATION\r\nBETWEEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS. AN ASCAT PASS\r\nAT 1740 UTC SHOWED RELIABLE MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KT.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 40 KT. THIS\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH HECTOR HAS\r\nRESTRENGTHENED TODAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS\r\nUNCHANGED. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE LITTLE IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE. HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nSUB-26C WATERS IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING\r\nTREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE\r\nRECENT STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 270/6. A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR POSSIBLY NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS.\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT THIS CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT LIES ON THE\r\nWEST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE MODIFIED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT\r\nPASS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 18.0N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 18.1N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 18.3N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 18.5N 115.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 18.8N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 19.7N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 20.5N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 13 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HECTOR HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME EXPOSED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE LARGE AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER TODAY HAS SINCE WEAKENED\r\nAND BEEN PUSHED WESTWARD BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.  ALTHOUGH\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 40 KT BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT DATA AND BECAUSE A NEW BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION HAS VERY RECENTLY REDEVELOPED SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE\r\nCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DURING THIS TIME...HECTOR IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND THIS IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS..HECTOR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE.\r\n \r\nAS THE CENTER BECAME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...IT APPEARS THAT IT WAS\r\nLOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. RECENT CENTER\r\nFIXES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER OR\r\n270/5 KT.  AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR WEAKENS...A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER THAT.  THE ECMWF AND GFDL\r\nMODELS DEPICT A SHARPER AND FASTER NORTHWARD TURN IN 36-48 HOURS\r\nTHAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...CLOSE TO THE HFIP\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TV15.  THE NEW FORECAST IS SLOWER AND\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 18.0N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 18.0N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 18.2N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 18.5N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 19.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 20.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0000Z 21.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME OBSCURED BY CIRRUS\r\nCLOUDS...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT IT IS STILL\r\nDISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...SO THE INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING HELD AT 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  HECTOR HAS ANOTHER 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO OVER WATERS WARMER THAN 26.5C...BUT THE STORM WILL BE\r\nSUSCEPTIBLE TO DRIER AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY DAY 3.  SOME OF THE INTENSITY MODELS HINT THAT IT COULD\r\nOCCUR EVEN SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN MOVING JUST SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST...AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/5 KT.  AS A LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST AMPLIFIES OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND ALLOW\r\nHECTOR TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY.  THIS MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL HECTOR DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...AT WHICH\r\nPOINT IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND TURN BACK TO THE\r\nWEST BY DAY 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT\r\nHAD BEEN...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE ON DAYS 4 AND 5 TO BE CLOSER TO THE GFS...ECMWF...\r\nAND HFIP CONSENSUS TV15.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 17.9N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 18.1N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 18.4N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.8N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.1N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 21.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z 21.0N 121.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER OF HECTOR...AND IT HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE LAST HOUR OR TWO. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE ABOUT THE SAME AS EARLIER...THEREFORE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 40 KT. HECTOR CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...WHICH HAS KEPT THE CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALTHOUGH HECTOR CURRENTLY LIES\r\nOVER 28C WATER TEMPERATURES...IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C\r\nWATERS IN ABOUT 2 DAYS. GIVEN THESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS...HECTOR IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE\r\nPERIOD AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3. DISSIPATION IS NOW\r\nSHOWN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR IS NOW GAINING SOME\r\nLATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/5. A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENS DUE TO A\r\nDEEPENING DEEP-LAYER LOW SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A\r\nTURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nHECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 18.7N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.1N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 19.7N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-08-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER AN EARLY MORNING BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY HAS BEEN ON THE WANE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON\r\nTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP HECTOR FROM STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND COOLER SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nIN THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/4. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT HECTOR HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF WEST SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AS THE CONVECTION\r\nWAXES AND WANES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A SLOW ERRATIC MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nDECOUPLES COMPLETELY FROM ANY CONVECTION. AFTER THAT OCCURS...\r\nHECTOR WILL BE A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 17.6N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.9N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 18.4N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 19.6N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 20.5N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 14 2012\r\n \r\nDURING THE AFTERNOON...THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATED...LEAVING THE CENTER\r\nOF HECTOR EXPOSED ONCE AGAIN.  AS THIS OCCURRED...THE CYCLONE MOVED\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A FEW HOURS. MORE RECENTLY IT APPEARS THAT\r\nHECTOR HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  A NEW BAND OF CONVECTION HAS\r\nDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 35 KT. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS AND WILL ALSO BE MOVING OVER SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS.  THESE\r\nFACTORS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE INSISTS THAT HECTOR WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY\r\nSOON AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO.  AS HECTOR WEAKENS...IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD\r\nIN THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE UPDATED TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 17.2N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 17.5N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 19.4N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 20.5N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 21.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 15 2012\r\n \r\nAN 0428 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT HECTOR IS BARELY HOLDING ON AS\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WITH A FEW 30-35 KT WIND BARBS NOTED IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE ASCAT PASS MISSED THE CONVECTIVE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL-STORM-\r\nFORCE WINDS ARE STILL OCCURRING THERE AS WELL.  HECTOR WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY 15-20 KT OF EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nINGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR AND WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nSSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS OBSCURED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS MOVED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY.  THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 270/2 KT.  HECTOR IS TRAPPED\r\nWITHIN A WEAK STEERING REGIME BETWEEN A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nWELL TO ITS EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nINSIST THAT HECTOR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...ALBEIT\r\nSLOWLY...LATER TODAY.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO\r\nTHE EAST AND NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.9N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 18.7N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 19.6N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 20.6N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 23.0N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hector","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 15 2012\r\n\r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HECTOR REMAINS A SHEARED\r\nCYCLONE...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  IN ADDITION...RECENT AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE NEAR 37 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS FARTHER\r\nNORTH...AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE EAST...OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 360/4.  A COMBINATION\r\nOF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD STEER HECTOR SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION...AND IT LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nHECTOR IS OVER A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TONGUE OF 27C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD REACH 26C\r\nSSTS IN ABOUT 12 HR AND 24C SSTS BY 48 HR.  THIS...COMBINED WITH\r\nCONTINUED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR HECTOR TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24\r\nHR AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 36 HR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 17.8N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 18.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 19.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 20.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 21.3N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012\r\n\r\nHECTOR IS WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CENTER REMAINS\r\nEXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF DISORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVECTION...AND\r\nAN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1658 UTC SHOWED WIND VECTORS OF AT MOST 25 KT\r\nTO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...HECTOR\r\nIS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THIS INTENSITY\r\nCOULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/6.  A COMBINATION\r\nOF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA SHOULD STEER HECTOR SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nAGAIN  SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION.  IT LIES ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 24 HR AND NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE ENVELOPE THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR HECTOR TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS\r\nWHILE CONTINUING TO EXPERIENCE SHEAR.  THUS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nAFTER 36 HR...AND THIS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 18.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 19.3N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 21.5N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 22.3N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 23.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HECTOR REMAINS EXPOSED...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED TO A SINGLE BURST NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE-BASED\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT HECTOR HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO WEAKEN...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.\r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND SEEN TODAY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nHIGH...AND HECTOR WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BASED ON THESE FACTORS...\r\nHECTOR IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF HECTOR IS\r\nSLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE LATEST FIXES\r\nSUGGEST AN INITIAL MOTION OF 355/5. THE FORECAST REASONING IS\r\nOTHERWISE UNCHANGED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A\r\nGENERAL NORTH-NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF\r\nA WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH LOCATED WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE NEW CENTER LOCATION...AND\r\nIS NEAR THE MIDDLE THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 18.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 20.8N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 21.7N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 22.5N 116.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 23.5N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\nONE BAND HAS DEVELOPED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF HECTOR...ENOUGH TO\r\nKEEP IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE\r\nMAINTAINED AS A 25 KT SYSTEM...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  HECTOR IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER SSTS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BENT A LITTLE\r\nMORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335/4.  THIS GENERAL PATH IS\r\nFORECAST UNTIL THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DISSIPATES IN A FEW DAYS OR\r\nSO...AND ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE WITH THE LATEST\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 19.0N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 19.9N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.8N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 21.7N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 22.4N 117.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 23.0N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\nSPIRAL BANDING ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HECTOR HAS\r\nPERSISTED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND A BLEND OF A 0402 UTC AMSU\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE AND THE TAFB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION SUPPORTS\r\nMAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT.  HECTOR SHOULD DECAY TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...OR POSSIBLY EARLIER...AS IT\r\nTRAVERSES COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND REMAINS IN A MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 335/4 KT.  A GENERAL\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW GENERATED BY HIGH\r\nPRESSURE TO THE EAST.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 19.7N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 20.1N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 21.8N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\nALL THAT REMAINS OF HECTOR IS A RELATIVELY SHAPELESS BLOB OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DISPLACED ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF THE NOW LESS-DEFINED\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 KT\r\nBASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  AS HECTOR\r\nCONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM MODERATE EASTERLY WIND SHEAR...AN\r\nINTRUDING STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS... AND GRADUALLY DECREASING\r\nSSTS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN LESS THAN\r\n24 HOURS AND DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 335/4 KT...AND THIS GENERAL\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...OR UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE HFIP TV15 MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 19.9N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 20.6N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 21.6N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 22.4N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 23.2N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Hector","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 16 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HECTOR DIMINISHED AROUND 2100\r\nUTC...REDUCING THE CYCLONE TO NOTHING MORE THAN A SWIRL OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS. HOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS NOT YET BEEN ABSENT LONG\r\nENOUGH FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. HECTOR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW SOON AS IT CONTINUES TO\r\nENCOUNTER PERSISTENTLY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...LOWER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND A DRY AND STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS\r\nASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DISSIPATION IS\r\nFORECAST IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/04 KT.  HECTOR SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN\r\nBETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nCYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES WEAKER/SHALLOWER IN\r\nNATURE...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND MEANDER AS IT ENCOUNTERS A\r\nBROAD CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 20.2N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 20.9N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 21.9N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 22.9N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hector","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP082012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2012\r\n \r\nONLY A FEW WIMPY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER OF\r\nHECTOR DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN\r\nUNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE DURING THAT TIME.  THUS...\r\nHECTOR NO LONGER MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 25 KT ON THE BASIS OF A 0528 UTC ASCAT PASS.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH.  \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON HECTOR.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 20.8N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 21.6N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 22.6N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 23.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW\r\nHUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN\r\nADDITION...RECENT MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. THEREFORE...THE LOW IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE NINTH OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT...THOUGH SOME ESTIMATES SUGGEST IT COULD\r\nBE A LITTLE STRONGER. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GAIN STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE. AFTER DAY 4...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE OVER COOLER WATERS...AND THAT SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING\r\nTREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AS THE\r\nRIDGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE RIDGE WEAKENING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCES OF\r\nATLANTIC TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.\r\nAND A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE RIDGE\r\nCOULD REBUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD CAUSING IT TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15...AND\r\nKEEPS THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 15.1N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 15.6N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 16.2N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 16.6N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 17.4N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 19.0N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 20.4N 113.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 27 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM SAB/TAFB RESPECTIVELY\r\nAT 0000 UTC...AND 40 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS RATHER\r\nIMPRESSIVE WITH LIGHT SHEAR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND\r\nILEANA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE BEEN UNTOUCHED BY ANY\r\nRECENT CYCLONE ACTIVITY.  THUS STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST...\r\nAND THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nCLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE LGEM MODEL AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN\r\nTHE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...BUT I WANTED TO KEEP SOME\r\nCONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.  WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN IN\r\nABOUT 4 DAYS AS ILEANA MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 290/10 KT.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE THE PRIMARY\r\nSTEERING CURRENT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING ILEANA TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.  HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES\r\nINITIALLY ON HOW ILEANA INTERACTS WITH THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\nTHE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWS A\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CYCLONE BREAKING FREE\r\nFROM THE ITCZ AND HEADING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE GFS SOLUTION SEEMS\r\nLESS REALISTIC...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT IN THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS.  A LEFTWARD BEND SHOULD OCCUR IN\r\nA FEW DAYS TIME AS ILEANA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AT THE LONGER RANGE...AND IS NOT TOO FAR FROM\r\nTVCN.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 15.5N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 16.0N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 16.6N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 18.1N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 19.5N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 22.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 0458 UTC METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ALSO SHOWS THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION RESIDES NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nCLOUD CANOPY.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  LOW VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PROVIDE AN\r\nENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. \r\nAFTERWARD...A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES\r\nCOOLER WATER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE IVCN\r\nMULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10 KT. A MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO\r\nSTEER ILEANA IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. THROUGH DAY 4...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW ILEANA\r\nDECREASING IN FORWARD SPEED AND TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST\r\nOF THE U.S. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THIS CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN\r\nSHOULD INITIATE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 15.5N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 16.2N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 17.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 17.8N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 18.6N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 19.9N 114.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 21.2N 116.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 22.3N 120.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN A LARGE CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. T-NUMBERS\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM\r\nWATERS AND WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR FOR THE NEXT TWO\r\nDAYS. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING...AND ILEANA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER\r\nTHAT...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS ILEANA MOVES OVER LOWER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nBASED ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. ILEANA IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nRIDGE AND A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nSTEER ILEANA ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nWITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO FOUR DAYS.\r\nSINCE ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE CYCLONE IS ANTICIPATED TO TURN MORE TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 16.0N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 16.5N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 17.5N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 18.5N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 19.0N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 22.0N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 23.0N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE OR MICROWAVE DATA \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS ESTABLISHED AND\r\nTHERE ARE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT 3.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING THAT THE WINDS ARE\r\nSTILL 45 KNOTS. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A LOW-SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT BUT WILL BEGIN TO REACH LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nIN ABOUT 3 DAYS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR ILEANA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO AND THEN WEAKEN\r\nGRADUALLY.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER\r\nWESTERN MEXICO. ILEANA COULD TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AS\r\nA MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\nHOWEVER...SINCE ILEANA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD TURN MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF\r\nWHICH IS NORTH OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS/HWRF PAIR TO\r\nTHE SOUTH.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 16.3N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 16.9N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 18.0N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 18.5N 114.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 19.5N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 20.5N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 21.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 22.0N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012\r\n \r\nILEANA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...AND\r\nCONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS...ALTHOUGH BROKEN AND NOT VERY DEEP...EXIST\r\nIN MOST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 45 KT\r\nAND 50 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADT VALUES FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS WERE NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nSEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ILEANA REMAINS IN A\r\nLOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AND OVER WARM\r\nWATER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...ILEANA IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO MODERATE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THESE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF\r\nABOUT 9 KT. THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD CALIFORNIA. A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS AS ILEANA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 17.0N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 17.8N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 18.7N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 19.6N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 20.3N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 21.5N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 22.2N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE\r\nSTORM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM\r\nWATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND BRINGS\r\nILEANA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK COMBINED WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nWEAKENING TREND. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 TO\r\n5 DAYS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR\r\n22C.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL\r\nHEADING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...ILEANA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE REBUILDS\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 17.6N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 18.5N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 19.5N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 20.3N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 20.9N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 21.9N 118.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AND CONSISTS OF A ROUND AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OR \r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST NEAR THE CENTER WITH SOME CURVED BANDS. AN\r\nAVERAGE OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS. BOTH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS\r\nFAVOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND ILEANA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nAT ANY TIME TODAY. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING. \r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL\r\nLGEM. \r\n\r\nILEANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD AN\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP\r\nILEANA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. DURING THE LAST\r\nPORTION OF THE FORECAST...ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO BE A WEAK SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD FOLLOWING THE\r\nSOLUTION OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n\r\nAN AUTOMATIC STATION IN SOCORRO ISLAND OPERATED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT HAS\r\nEXPANDED.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 18.2N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 19.0N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 20.0N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 21.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 21.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 23.0N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 23.5N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n\r\nILEANA CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED CURVED BAND CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO WRAP UP AN EYEWALL AND EYE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 62 KT.  SINCE\r\nTHE CENTRAL CONVECTION DOES NOT QUITE WRAP ALL THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT.  THE STORM IS\r\nIN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nIN ALL DIRECTIONS.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING TODAY...THE OVERALL MOTION\r\nREMAINS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...320/7.  FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE COMBINATION OF A\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS SHOW\r\nA MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THIS TIME.  AFTER 72 HR...THE\r\nGUIDANCE DIVERGES FURTHER...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ILEANA TURNING TO\r\nTHE NORTH BEFORE IT WEAKENS...AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER\r\nSCENARIO...SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 72 HR.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES\r\nSOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ILEANA OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IT PROBABLY HAS 12-24 HR LEFT TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT STATUS THROUGH 24 HR. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING...\r\nWITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 96 HR\r\nAND A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 18.5N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 19.3N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 20.2N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 21.1N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 21.8N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THERE\r\nIS AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BOTH OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE...ARE\r\n4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT ILEANA HAS REACHED\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS APPROACHING LOWER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THE CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN\r\nAT THE SAME INTENSITY FOR ONLY 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT ILEANA\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nILEANA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN\r\nEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A GENERAL\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THE\r\nTROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nAS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN THE LONG RANGE...THE GFS\r\nAND THE ECMWF ARE IN DISAGREEMENT. THE GFS FORECASTS ILEANA TO\r\nCONTINUE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT ILEANA WILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST. REGARDLESS OF WHICH\r\nSOLUTION IS CORRECT...ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW\r\nBY THAT TIME PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 19.1N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 20.0N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 20.8N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 23.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 24.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0000Z 25.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE FEATURE IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS TIME...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nA FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS.  T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS AT 65 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS\r\nAPPROACHING COOLER WATERS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...AND ILEANA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72\r\nHOURS. \r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325 DEGREES AT 7\r\nKNOTS.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY AN\r\nEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AS\r\nTHE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND ILEANA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND BECOME STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IN THE LONG\r\nRANGE...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE ONCE AGAIN IN DISAGREEMENT AS IN \r\nTHE PREVIOUS RUNS.  THE GFS INSISTS ON MOVING ILEANA MORE NORTHWARD\r\nAHEAD OF THE TROUGH...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS INDICATING THAT ILEANA\r\nWILL MISS THE TROUGH AND TURN WEST.  FORTUNATELY...ILEANA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE A WEAK REMNANT LOW BY THAT TIME PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 19.7N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 20.6N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 22.3N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 24.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 24.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF ILEANA HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE\r\nOVERNIGHT...WITH A WARM SPOT OCCASIONALLY EVIDENT IN THE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  A 1043 UTC AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS SHOWS A RAGGED\r\nDOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\n4.0 FROM TAFB AND 4.5 FROM SAB...AND A BLEND OF THESE SUBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 70 KT.  THERE IS A SMALL\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TODAY.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...ILEANA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND\r\nINTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BE WITHIN\r\n24 HOURS AND ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS. \r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS ILEANA MOVES\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS\r\nAND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD BEND MORE WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nREMAIN AT ODDS WITH THE GFS SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHILE\r\nTHE ECMWF PREDICTS A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...BUT\r\nFAVORS THE MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOWN BY THE\r\nEUROPEAN MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 20.2N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 20.9N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 21.7N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 22.5N 116.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 23.3N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 24.0N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 24.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE SINCE THIS MORNING. A CURVED\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION NOW WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER...AND A\r\nRAGGED BANDED EYE HAS APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST\r\nHOUR OR TWO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO A\r\nCONSENSUS T4.5...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\nILEANA IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS IT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE\r\nOVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...ILEANA WILL MOVE OVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING AFTER THAT\r\nTIME. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nILEANA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 5 KT.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS ILEANA MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL AT ODDS OVER\r\nTHE TRACK OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS.  THE GFS DEPICTS\r\nA DEEPER TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONE THAT RESULTS IN A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nMEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW OF ILEANA TURNING\r\nWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS \r\nTOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION...WHICH IS THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY\r\nFAVORED TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 20.5N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 21.1N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 21.9N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 22.8N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 23.4N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 24.3N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 25.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1800Z 25.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2012\r\n \r\nILEANA HAS SPORADICALLY DISPLAYED A RAGGED EYE THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVER PASS ALSO\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL STRUCTURE. \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT A 4.5 AND 4.0 CI NUMBER\r\nRESPECTIVELY...WHICH SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY CURRENTLY AT 75\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING AT 335/5 AS IT IS APPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WEST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA WOULD ACT TO RECURVE THE HURRICANE TOWARD MEXICO OR THE\r\nUNITED STATES IF THE CYCLONE RETAINED A DEEP STRUCTURE OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...ILEANA SHOULD WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AS IT IS STEERED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND\r\nFLOW.  THE MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED THIS CYCLE AS THE GFS...WHILE\r\nSTILL THE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION...IS NOW SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER\r\nSOUTH.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nIT IS LIKELY THAT ILEANA HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS RATHER HOSTILE\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS ARE SOON TO BE EXPERIENCED.  SO WHILE THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR REMAINS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE WATER TEMPERATURE\r\nCOOLS BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND THE MOISTURE DROPS CONSIDERABLY IN ABOUT\r\nA DAY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS IVCN AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0300Z 21.2N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 21.8N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 22.6N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 23.1N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 23.6N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 24.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/0000Z 24.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nA LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF ILEANA IS ALREADY OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS...AND CONSEQUENTLY MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING\r\nIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT\r\nILEANA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND BECOME INVOLVED WITH STABLE AIR...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n\r\nILEANA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. \r\nTRACK MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT AT ALL...WITH SOME MOVING ILEANA\r\nNORTHWARD AND OTHERS KEEPING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. SINCE ILEANA IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THERE IS A STRONG\r\nLIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL TURN WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 21.8N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 23.1N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 23.5N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 24.0N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 24.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 24.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/0600Z 24.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ileana","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF ILEANA IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...\r\nBUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI\r\nNUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS\r\nILEANA BEGINS TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A STABLE\r\nAIRMASS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/07...AS ILEANA HAS JOGGED A\r\nLITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTURN GRADUALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES NUDGES WEST TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS ILEANA BECOMES A\r\nREMNANT LOW AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION BUT NOW LIES A LITTLE NORTH OF THE SOUTHWARD-SHIFTING TVCE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ALSO FASTER AND CLOSELY\r\nFOLLOWS THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 22.0N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 22.6N 116.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 23.5N 119.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 23.8N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 24.3N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 24.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1200Z 24.5N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ILEANA HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS...WITH AN OVERALL COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nAND SIGNS THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nFINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS ILEANA MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONESNUS. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 5 DAY IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nMORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOON AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS\r\nTHE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD\r\nAGAIN THIS CYCLE AND SO HAS THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED\r\nTOWARD THE NEW TVCE CONSENSUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND\r\nSHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 22.4N 116.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 22.8N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 23.3N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 23.6N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 23.8N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 24.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH\r\nILEANA...THE TROPICAL STORM STILL HAS WELL-DEFINED BANDING\r\nFEATURES. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND THE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER. BASED\r\nON THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 55 KT. ILEANA IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C\r\nWATERS...AND THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOLDER WATER AND MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WITH\r\nDEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME\r\nILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS NEAR 21C.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WEST IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE LOCATED OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ONCE\r\nILEANA BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT WILL LIKELY TURN A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 22.6N 116.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 23.0N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 23.3N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 23.5N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 23.6N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS OVER COOL WATERS...ABOUT 24 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...AND ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN A FEW BANDS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEAKENING TREND...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE\r\nESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ILEANA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SOONER.\r\n\r\nILEANA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM...IT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 22.7N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 23.0N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 23.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nILEANA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS NOW DISAPPEARED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES...BUT THIS COULD\r\nBE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 23C\r\nISOTHERM SOON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST\r\nAS THE REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nFOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CYCLE OF GLOBAL MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 23.0N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 23.1N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 22.8N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 22.5N 129.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 22.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nILEANA IS NOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL CELLS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER. THE 35-KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ILEANA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. ILEANA SHOULD TURN SOUTH OF\r\nDUE WEST IN A DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY THE\r\nNORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nSHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 23.1N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 23.1N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 23.0N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 22.4N 126.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 21.5N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 20.5N 133.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ileana","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ILEANA IS OVER WATERS NEAR 22C...A SMALL AREA OF COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER. A\r\nBLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING ILEANA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER EVEN COLDER\r\nWATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH STABLE\r\nAIR TO ITS WEST SHOULD CAUSE ILEANA TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE IN\r\n4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ILEANA IS NOW MOVING DUE\r\nWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. ILEANA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 23.1N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 23.0N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 22.8N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 22.1N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 21.0N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ileana","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ONLY A SMALL AREA OF\r\nCONVECTION REMAINING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF ILEANA.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A 0450 UTC\r\nASCAT OVERPASS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND ILEANA IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...WITH DISSIPATION\r\nOCCURRING AROUND THE 96 HOUR PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WESTWARD OR 265/9...WITH A SLIGHT\r\nADJUSTMENT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE BASED ON THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED ASCAT OVERPASS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nJUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS IT BECOMES\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 22.6N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 22.5N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 22.3N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 21.8N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 21.3N 127.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 20.2N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ileana","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP092012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nILEANA HAS LACKED SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS. \r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE IS OVER VERY COOL WATERS...REGENERATION OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION SEEMS HIGHLY UNLIKELY. THEREFORE...\r\nILEANA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...\r\nAND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE \r\nNATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. DISSIPATION IS\r\nFORECAST TO OCCUR IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THIS OCCURRING SOONER.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 22.6N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 22.4N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 22.1N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 21.7N 127.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 21.2N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 19.5N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED. IN\r\nADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KT. THIS INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY 15 TO 20 KT OF NORTHEASTELY SHEAR.\r\nTHESE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVENT THE CYCLONE\r\nFROM STRENGTHENING QUICKLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM...AND\r\nTHAT SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSEST TO SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nBASED ON RECENT SATELLITE FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n290/15. A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A\r\nGRADUAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND\r\nFIELD...AND THOSE DATA WERE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT FOR THE FORECAST\r\n34-KT WIND RADII. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.3N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 20.7N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 21.9N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 24.6N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 25.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z 26.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 02 2012\r\n \r\nMODERATELY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE\r\nDEPRESSION ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS/CIMSS UW SHEAR ANALYSES.\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN GIVES EVIDENCE OF THIS SHEAR...WITH THE CENTER\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND COVERING THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION.\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.0 AT 0000 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION HAS\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE\r\nINTO A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME.  SINCE THE SHEAR SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  STEADY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD ENSUE AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE CYCLONE REACHES\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS...AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN\r\n72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE IN RECENT CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE RELIABLE 300/15. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ASSUME AN\r\nINCREASINGLY MORE WESTERLY HEADING AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOME\r\nSHALLOWER IN NATURE AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR BUT LEFT OF A BLEND OF THE\r\nTRACKS FROM THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS...BOTH OF WHICH APPEARED TO\r\nHAVE THE BEST REPRESENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 19.0N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 20.1N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 21.4N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 22.6N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 24.8N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 25.4N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nA BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 02/1730 UTC ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS INDICATED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXISTED WITH THE\r\nSYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT CONVECTION HAD WANED SHORTLY\r\nTHEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BASED ON THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...ALONG WITH AN ADT ESTIMATE OF\r\nT2.5/35 KT...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOHN.\r\nMODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAFFECT THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. JOHN IS ALSO\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH SUB-24C SSTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AS A RESULT...\r\nLITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...\r\nWITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10.\r\nSINCE JOHN IS ON TRACK...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. JOHN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nTHE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 19.4N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 20.4N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 21.7N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 22.8N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 23.7N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 25.0N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 26.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF JOHN IS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CLUSTER\r\nOF CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 35 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE CI-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMMS ARE T2.5.\r\nBASED ON THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS\r\n35 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN MORE\r\nHOSTILE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH JOHN MOVING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING. \r\nAS A RESULT...A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  JOHN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nWEAKEN TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TUESDAY MORNING...AND SHOULD \r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nJOHN WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...BUT\r\nTHE OVERALL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS JOHN MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...DUE TO THE MORE NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL POSTION.  THE\r\nLATTER PORTION OF THE TRACK SHOWS SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS JOHN BECOMES A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THAT \r\nPORTION OF THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE CLOSE TO THE ECMWF MODEL...WHICH WAS A VERY GOOD \r\nPERFORMER FOR THE WEAKENING PHASE OF ILEANA.\r\n\r\nSOME MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE \r\nBAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 20.5N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 21.3N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 22.7N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 26.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 27.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"John","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF JOHN IS \r\nGRADUALLY DECLINING WITH THE CENTER EXPOSED WELL TO THE NORTH \r\nOF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE BAND.  RECENT ASCAT DATA WERE NOT \r\nHELPFUL FOR DETERMINING THE CURRENT INTENSITY AS THE OVERPASS ONLY\r\nSAMPLED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  A SHIP OBSERVATION\r\nOF 28 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nSUGGESTS THAT 30 TO 35 KT WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING NEARER\r\nTO THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE SHIP OBSERVATION AND A DVORAK\r\nCI-NUMBER OF T2.5 FROM SAB...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT \r\n35 KT.  THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING JOHN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nWITHIN 12 HOURS...AND A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nJOHN HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nSOME MOISTURE FROM JOHN WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 21.1N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 22.1N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 23.4N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 24.6N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 25.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 27.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST BY STRONG\r\nNORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.  A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES IS THE BASIS\r\nFOR LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KT.  JOHN IS NEARING THE\r\n26C-ISOTHERM...AND SHOULD REACH A SHARP GRADIENT OF DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 12-24 HOURS.  AN INCREASINGLY STABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND A CONTINUATION OF AT LEAST MODERATE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD MEAN A QUICK DEMISE OF JOHN.  THE NEW\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS STEADY WEAKENING IN BASIC AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11...THOUGH RECENT CENTER FIXES\r\nSUGGEST A SOMEWHAT SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nSHOW JOHN DECELERATING ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nCOURSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nONCE THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES AND BECOMES SHALLOW...ITS FORWARD MOTION\r\nSHOULD SLOW FURTHER AND THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE NORTH OR\r\nPOSSIBLY THE NORTHEAST.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A HAIR TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THEN\r\nMORE SO BEYOND 72 HOURS.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 21.7N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 22.7N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 23.9N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 25.0N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 25.8N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 27.0N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF JOHN REMAINS FULLY EXPOSED WITH NO SIGNS OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC INDICATED THAT THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED REMAINS ABOUT 30 KT. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS IS LIKELY...AND JOHN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nLATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS BEFORE...310/11. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS LIKELY\r\nIN A FEW DAYS AS JOHN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...MOVES AROUND A\r\nWEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES A BIT TO THE WEST OF TVCN. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 22.5N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 23.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 24.6N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 25.6N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 26.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 28.5N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"John","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN DISSIPATED AROUND 0600 UTC\r\nAND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.\r\nIT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL REFORM AND\r\nJOHN IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...AND IS BASED ON A\r\nCOUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF AROUND 25 KT OVER THE OUTER PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/12.  JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 23.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 24.5N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 25.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 26.4N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 27.3N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 29.0N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"John","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP102012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 04 2012\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION FROM MORE THAN 12 HOURS...JOHN\r\nHAS BEEN DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT AND IS BASED\r\nON A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION WELL EAST OF THE CENTER.  A GRADUAL\r\nSPINDOWN IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT.  A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD \r\nTHE NORTH BEFORE DISSIPATION OCCURS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORCAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BETWEEN THE\r\nLATEST GFS AND ECWMF MODELS.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 24.3N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 25.2N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 26.1N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 27.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 27.8N 121.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 12 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF\r\nTHE COAST OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE POSITION OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS UNCERTAIN...AND IT IS A BLEND BETWEEN ASCAT DATA HOURS\r\nAGO...AN AMSU-B PASS AT 1002 UTC...AND RECENT VISIBLE PICTURES.\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN...ALTHOUGH LARGE...DOES NOT HAVE ORGANIZED BANDING\r\nFEATURES YET...BUT THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. BOTH GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST AN INCREASE\r\nIN THE SHEAR FAVORING ONLY SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO UNCERTAIN...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED\r\nSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THIS\r\nSTEERING PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION THROUGH 5 DAYS WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND HEAVILY BIASED TO THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. \r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.7N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 17.1N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 17.7N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 18.2N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 19.0N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 21.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDE OF THE CENTER. BASED ON ASCAT\r\nRETRIEVALS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS.  KRISTY ONLY\r\nHAS A COUPLE OF DAYS WITHIN RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR BEFORE THE\r\nCIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATER. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THESE TWO DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODEL LGEM. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...KRISTY\r\nSHOULD HAVE BECOME A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER BECAME MORE VISIBLE IN MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY\r\nTODAY...AND IT WAS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. KRISTY IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST\r\nTO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. ACTUALLY...THERE IS NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST\r\nSINCE THE GFDL AND THE GFS ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RATHER\r\nWIDE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF ARE ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE.  THE NHC FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE BIT\r\nNORTHWARD FROM THIS MORNING BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION...BUT IN\r\nGENERAL IS BIASED TOWARD THE ECMWF/HWRF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 18.2N 106.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  17/1800Z 26.0N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 12 2012\r\n\r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT\r\nINDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND BANDING IS IMPROVING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE\r\nEASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT...AND THIS AGREES WITH A BLEND\r\nOF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\nSATELLITE-DERIVED WINDS FROM UW-CIMSS REVEAL A QUITE IMPRESSIVE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL STORM. THIS WIND ANALYSIS\r\nCONTRADICTS THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL SOLUTION...WHICH INDICATES\r\n15-20 KT OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY JUST THE STRONG\r\nOUTFLOW OF THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. KRISTY SHOULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING MUCH\r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST INDICATES A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY OF 60 KT AT THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. HOWEVER...FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A LOW-END HURRICANE IS POSSIBLE...AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE SHIPS AND THE HWRF MODELS. SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOCCUR AFTER THAT...AND KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nAROUND DAY 4...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED\r\nPRIMARLY ON THE IVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/8. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF\r\nMODEL ALL SHOW THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER KRISTY GENERALLY\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY THE\r\nGFDL MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN\r\nPORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN 48-72 HOURS. IN PREVIOUS YEARS...THIS\r\nPARTICULAR MODEL HAS EXHIBITED A NORTH OR RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS FOR\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES LOCATED SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE TVCE CONSENSUS...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 18.0N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 18.5N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 19.2N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 20.0N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 21.1N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 23.5N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 25.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0000Z 25.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE EARLY EVENING HAVE BEEN\r\nVERY HELPFUL IN DETERMING THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION OF\r\nKRISTY.  THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGE...A 0428 UTC AMSU PASS...\r\nINDICATED SOME NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TILT OF THE CIRCULATION...AND\r\nRECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SHARPER NORTHWESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS...ALONG WITH ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND CIMSS...SUGGESTS SOME NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED\r\nAFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  THE LATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  \r\n\r\nKRISTY IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND THIS\r\nIS FORECAST TO KEEP THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE SHEAR SHOULD RELAX AND KRISTY WILL STILL BE OVER WARM\r\nWATER AND IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK\r\nINTENSITY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS KRISTY WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATE AFTER THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKT.  KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS IT IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL MODEL WHICH REMAINS AN\r\nOUTLIER AS IT SHOWS A TRACK TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC \r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR\r\nTHE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...UKMET...AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 18.5N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 19.0N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 19.6N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 21.7N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 23.9N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 25.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0600Z 25.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012\r\n \r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. IN FACT...IT COULD HAVE DETERIORATED A LITTLE\r\nBIT...AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE...KRISTY IS HEADING\r\nTOWARD COOL WATERS AND APPROACHING A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. ON THIS\r\nBASIS...THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND KRISTY IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THERE\r\nIS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE...AND KRISTY\r\nWILL PROBABLY DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW. THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGH SINCE MOST OF\r\nGUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF...AGREE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST SOLUTION. IN FACT...THIS PATH IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nCLIMATOLOGY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 18.9N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 19.5N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 20.2N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 24.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1200Z 26.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KRISTY HAS BECOME EXPOSED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...WITH NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING MOST OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nDVORAK CURRENT-INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...\r\nSO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE\r\nCENTER OF KRISTY CROSSES THE 26C SST ISOTHERM TOWARD COLDER WATER.\r\nIT IS UNLIKELY THAT KRISTY WILL STRENGTHEN WHILE THE SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINNING\r\nBY 48 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS 295/9 KT...AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER KRISTY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS. THEREAFTER...A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nLOCATED OVER THE PACIFIC OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST SHOULD STOP\r\nKRISTY FROM MOVING IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION...WITH THE REMNANT LOW\r\nLIKELY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST. THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE FROM 36 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND...HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFDL TAKING A COURSE MUCH\r\nCLOSER TO THE BAJA COAST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ONLY AT 96 AND 120\r\nHOURS WHEN KRISTY IS A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 19.3N 110.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 19.8N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 20.5N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 21.8N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 22.9N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 26.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z 27.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 13 2012\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nKRISTY HAS BEEN NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nOR BRIEFLY EXPOSED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0000 UTC\r\nWERE A LITTLE LOWER THAN EARLIER...BUT CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY\r\nREFORMED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL\r\nREMAIN 45 KT.  A SLOW WEAKENING OF KRISTY SEEMS LIKELY DUE TO\r\nDECREASING SSTS AND PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WHILE THE\r\nSHEAR COULD LESSEN IN A DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE WILL ALREADY BE\r\nMOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO TAKE\r\nADVANTAGE OF THE CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT.  THUS THE NHC FORECAST WILL\r\nBASICALLY BE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWING GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...AND IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST LGEM MODEL.  KRISTY\r\nSHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 OR 3 DAYS DUE TO COLD WATER.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...MOVING 295/5. A GRADUAL BEND TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS KRISTY IS STEERED AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS TRACK IS LIKELY\r\nTO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A\r\nFEW DAYS. ONLY A SMALL RIGHTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nWAS MADE FOR THE FIRST 48 H TO COME CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW COULD MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nEAST AS IT BECOME STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AT DAYS\r\n4-5...BUT THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF KRISTY AT THAT\r\nPOINT. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 19.7N 111.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 20.2N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 21.2N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 22.4N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 23.5N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 25.3N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN UNDERGOING A BURSTING\r\nPATTERN.  CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES THAT WERE COOLING EARLIER HAVE\r\nSINCE BEGUN TO GRADUALLY WARM...AND THE CLOUD CANOPY IS NO LONGER\r\nEXPANDING. THE CENTER NOW APPEARS TO BE NEAR OR JUST UNDERNEATH THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. A 0402 UTC ASCAT PASS\r\nSHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...\r\nAND DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE A CONSENSUS 3.0 AT 0000 UTC. BASED ON THE\r\nASCAT PASS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\nKRISTY SHOULD SLOWLY BUT STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nMOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO INDICATE\r\nREMNANT LOW STATUS A BIT SOONER.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF KRISTY JOGGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT EARLIER\r\nTHIS EVENING...THE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL\r\n295/09.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW KRISTY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK OF KRISTY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nITS FORWARD SPEED TO SLOW DOWN PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST DIFFERS LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN BETWEEN THE\r\nGFS/ECMWF MODELS...VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 20.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 20.6N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 21.8N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 24.0N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 25.8N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 27.0N 119.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. LATEST\r\nSSMI/SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A\r\nCOMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED ON THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 45 KNOTS...BASICALLY THE SAME AS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. SINCE A\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY REACHING COOL WATERS...THE\r\nNHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BE A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS A STEADY 295/9. A WEAK TO\r\nMODERATE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL KRISTY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. IT SHOULD\r\nTHEN BEGIN TO MEANDER WITHIN WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...IT IS CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nONCE KRISTY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...THE GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY\r\nREPRESENTATIVE OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE NHC TRACK\r\nFOLLOWS BAM SHALLOW...WHICH MORE APPROPIATELY DEPICTS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 20.4N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 21.3N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 22.5N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 23.5N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 24.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 26.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 27.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n \r\nKRISTY IS RESILIENT...AND DESPITE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BEING\r\nOVER COOL WATERS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT DETERIORATED YET. A\r\nCOMMA-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER...AND\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AND INTENSITY OF 45\r\nKNOTS. THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATERS...AND\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE ENTIRE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER MUCH\r\nLOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY OR EARLIER.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT KRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AT 7 KNOTS. THERE IS ENOUGH RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO KEEP KRISTY ON A SLOW TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...KRISTY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND WILL BE STEERED BY A WEAK\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND MOST LIKELY...THE REMANT LOW WILL BEGIN TO\r\nMEANDER NORTHWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST...AND ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE WEAKER THAN\r\nINDICATED BY MOST MODELS AND BECOME STEERED BY VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 20.6N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 21.1N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 22.3N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 23.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 24.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 27.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS OF KRISTY HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE ONLY NOTABLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN\r\nA SMALL BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUPPORT 40 OR 45 KT...AND THE LOWER VALUE IS CHOSEN AS\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED BASED ON THE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS KRISTY MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 36H.\r\n\r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT KRISTY HAS TURNED TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THIS GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED ARE \r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED\r\nAROUND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT\r\nLOW...A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW EASTWARD\r\nDRIFT WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE RIGHT BEYOND 24H...BUT IS STILL TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 21.2N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 22.0N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 24.2N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 25.1N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 26.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nKRISTY HAS MADE A BIT OF A COMEBACK DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nWITH DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE STORM. DESPITE HAVING REACHED SUB-26C WATERS...THE CYCLONE MAY\r\nBE HOLDING ITS OWN PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF A DECREASE IN\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND CI- NUMBERS...AS WELL\r\nAS THE LATEST ADT CI VALUES...IS THE BASIS FOR MAINTAINING THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 40 KT. THE CIRCULATION OF KRISTY\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND INGESTS A DRIER...STABLE AIR MASS.\r\nREMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS IVCN AND ICON.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES MOVING ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08.  GUIDED BY THE FLOW AROUND A\r\nWEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...KRISTY SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS THE LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nKRISTY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN\r\nAND TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EASTWARD PRIOR TO\r\nDISSIPATION AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST DIFFERS LITTLE\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 21.8N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 22.6N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 23.8N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 24.8N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 25.7N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 27.2N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP...KRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED CLOUD PATTERN WITH A TIGHT CIRCULATION AND BANDING\r\nFEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nINDICATE THAT KRISTY IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOTS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND IT WILL BE\r\nHARD TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER WITH SUCH A COOL\r\nOCEAN BENEATH. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR WEAKENING...AND KRISTY IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR EARLIER. \r\n\r\nKRISTY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO.\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A WEAK SHALLOW LOW\r\nLINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF BUT AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 22.4N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 23.3N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 25.0N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 26.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nKRISTY HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL BUT VERY TIGHT CIRCULATION...AND THE\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY STRONG FOR A CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOL\r\nWATERS. AN ASCAT PASS AT 1756 UTC SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS...AND SINCE\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS SET TO 40 KT. THE GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST INSISTS ON WEAKENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT\r\n8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN\r\nMEXICO. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A\r\nWEAK SHALLOW LOW LINGERING FOR A FEW DAYS TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 23.2N 115.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 24.0N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 25.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 26.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 26.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAS BEEN ON A GRADUAL DECLINE...WITH THE\r\nCENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nTHERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME SUGGESTION RECENTLY ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nAND LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nBEGINNING TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES ARE SLOWLY DROPPING...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT.  THE STORM IS MOVING OVER RATHER COOL WATERS AND\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE EARLY IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KT\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER WESTERN MEXICO. \r\nKRISTY SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TOMORROW AS IT\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...THEN MEANDER OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS NEAR OR JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 23.7N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 24.5N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 25.6N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 26.4N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 27.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nKRISTY HAD BEEN MAINTAINING A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.\r\nHOWEVER...CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK AND\r\nADT CI NUMBERS SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KT...AND\r\nTHIS SEEMS JUSTIFIED GIVEN THE LINGERING CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nSTRONGER NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM.  THE SPIN-DOWN OF THE\r\nSTORM CIRCULATION SHOULD ACCELERATE NOW THAT KRISTY HAS REACHED 23C\r\nWATERS.  NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH\r\nKRISTY EXPECTED TO BE A CONVECTION-FREE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KRISTY MAY HAVE WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT SINCE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY...BUT THE LONGER-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS\r\n315/08. AS THE CYCLONE DECOUPLES ON SUNDAY...A SHIFT IN THE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE TRACK\r\nTO BEND NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT TO ADJUST THE\r\nFORECAST TO THE EAST AFTER 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TREND IN\r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 24.1N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 24.9N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 25.8N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 26.6N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nA 0955 UTC AMSU-B MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION HAS BECOME PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF WHAT REMAINS\r\nOF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY...\r\nHOWEVER...REMAINS AT 35 KT BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT AMSU-A\r\nUW-CIMSS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. KRISTY SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION\r\nLATER TODAY AS IT REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION AND\r\nCONTINUES TO TRAVERSE SSTS OF 22-23C. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AS A SHALLOW...WEAK SYSTEM...THEN DRIFT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS.  THE NHC\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 24.5N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 25.3N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 26.1N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 26.8N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 27.2N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF KRISTY HAS\r\nDECAYED RATHER QUICKLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH JUST A SMALL\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED\r\nCENTER OF CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT\r\nBASED ON THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES 22C\r\nWATER...AND MOVES FARTHER INTO A STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS. \r\nKRISTY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW MONDAY MORNING...AND\r\nDISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6.  KRISTY IS MOVING IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW GENERATED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nEAST...AND A CUT-OFF LOW SITUATED NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT KRISTY WILL BEND TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES STEERED\r\nIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE\r\nTVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 25.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 25.7N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 26.5N 118.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 27.0N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n\r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF KRISTY...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING\r\nEXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT\r\n30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  KRISTY SHOULD\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12H OR SO...WITH A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN WINDS AS THE CYCLONE SPINS DOWN OVER COLD WATERS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/6...ALTHOUGH A SHORTER TERM\r\nMOTION IS PROBABLY A LITTLE TO THE LEFT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION TURNING TO THE NORTH AND EAST  \r\nAS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED SOLELY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nNHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS PRIMARILY BASED ON THE TVCE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS BUT IS A BIT WEST OF THAT AID.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 25.3N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 25.9N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY DISSIPATED SEVERAL HOURS AGO.\r\nHOWEVER...A 0448 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS SHOWED STILL SHOWED A SWATH OF\r\n25-30 KT WINDS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF CIRCULATION....WHICH\r\nSUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  SURROUNDED BY A STABLE AIR\r\nMASS OVER 21-22C WATERS...KRISTY SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW TODAY. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO AS THE CIRCULATIONS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/06.  THE TRACK OF\r\nKRISTY SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AS THE REMNANT\r\nCIRCULATION TRAVELS AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS NEAR BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE LASTEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 25.9N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 26.3N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 26.7N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 27.0N 117.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kristy","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP112012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012\r\n\r\nKRISTY HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND\r\nIS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. \r\nBASED ON THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER OBSERVATIONS...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nSPIN DOWN...AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING AT ABOUT\r\n340/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 26.2N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 26.7N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 27.0N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 27.2N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HAS\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION...AND MICROWAVE DATA\r\nSHOW THAT THERE IS NOW A WELL-DEFINED CENTER. ON THIS BASIS...\r\nADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAVE BEEN INITIATED.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE\r\nVERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM...BUT AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO\r\nBE REMOVED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY\r\nOVER THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO ABATE...AND WHILE THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS OVER WARM WATERS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF STRENGTHENING. IN\r\nABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS...BOTH SHEAR AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE...AND WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVING SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. AS THE CYCLONE REACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE RIDGE...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY\r\nTHE ECMWF AND THE GFS. BEYOND 48 HOURS...AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...IT\r\nSHOULD BECOME STEERED SLOWLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 14.0N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 14.1N 124.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 14.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 15.3N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 16.4N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 19.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 20.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS NOW\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT INCREASING THE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS. THERE\r\nIS NOTHING APPARENT IN THE ENVIRONMENT THAT WOULD IMPEDE GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE CIRCULATION\r\nWILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. THE\r\nFORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH BOTH STATISTICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER EITHER REFORMED WITHIN THE CONVECTION OR THE PREVIOUS\r\nLOCATION WAS TOO FAR NORTH...MOST LIKELY IT IS A COMBINATION OF\r\nBOTH. TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION THESE UNCERTAINTIES...THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245\r\nDEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...WITH THE CURRENT STEERING\r\nPATTERN...LANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST LATER TONIGHT\r\nAND TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AS IT REACHES THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nUNANIMOUSLY MOVES LANE NORTHWESTWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. ONCE LANE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 12.8N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 12.8N 124.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 13.7N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 14.8N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 16.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 19.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z 19.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 15 2012\r\n\r\nA LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE\r\nCENTER OF LANE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED OF 35 KT...ALTHOUGH THE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE A\r\nBIT HIGHER.  THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL STORM SEEMS\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT TIME...LANE SHOULD CROSS A SHARP\r\nSST GRADIENT AND QUICKLY WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AT 36-48H...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT A FEW MODELS...SUCH AS THE HWRF/GFDL\r\nAND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...NOW SHOW LANE REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. \r\n \r\nA FEW MICROWAVE OVERPASSES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THE CENTER IS MOVING\r\nWESTWARD...OR 280/6.  A GRADUAL BEND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS LANE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TAKE A\r\nSHARP WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES A WEAKER SYSTEM MORE DOMINATED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD IN THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nSUIT...ALTHOUGH THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS STILL LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 13.3N 124.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 13.7N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 14.5N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 15.6N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 16.9N 128.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 19.3N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 20.0N 131.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nLANE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A BALL OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION\r\nTONIGHT...BUT IS LARGELY ABSENT SIGNIFICANT BANDING FEATURES.\r\nWHILE A 0506 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS...MICROWAVE IMAGES WOULD PLACE\r\nTHE CENTER CLOSER TO THE EDGE.  SATELLLITE CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...\r\nSEVERAL BELIEVABLE 45-50 KT WIND VECTORS WERE PRESENT IN THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT PASS...AND BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MICROWAVE AND ASCAT CENTER FIXES MAKES THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE RATHER UNCERTAIN.  A BLEND OF THESE\r\nESTIMATES SUGGESTS A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OF 280/06. LANE IS\r\nNEARING THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTH OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA WHICH HAS BEEN ERODED BY A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW OVER\r\nSUBTROPICAL PACIFIC NEAR 34N 137W.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LANE QUICKLY\r\nGAINING LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO\r\nTHE WEAKNESS CREATED BY THIS CUT-OFF FEATURE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE\r\nTRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE WEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS WEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS...ON THE\r\nLEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nLANE HAS A LIMITED WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE WATERS WARM FOR ANOTHER 36-48\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CAUSE IT TO REACH A SHARP BOUNDARY OF SSTS.  SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST UP TO 72 HR\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED HIGHER EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...IT IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 13.3N 124.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 14.0N 125.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 14.9N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 16.2N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 17.8N 128.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 20.0N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 20.0N 132.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z 19.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS INDICATED ON\r\nA RECENT MICROWAVE OVERPASS. BD-CURVE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nALSO SHOWS THAT THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS EXIST NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN\r\nEARLIER UW-CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE SUPPORTS INCREASING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT\r\nLANE COULD STRENGTHEN TO A LOW-END HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER COOLER\r\nWATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH EXPECTED AROUND THE 24-HOUR PERIOD...AND A WEAKENING TREND\r\nEXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINING TIME PERIODS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. LANE IS NOW MOVING WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS. IN THE LATER\r\nFORECAST PERIODS...LANE IS FORECAST TO TURN ABRUPTLY TOWARD THE\r\nWEST AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON THE TVCE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON SCATTEROMETER\r\nDATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 13.8N 125.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 14.5N 125.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 15.7N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 17.2N 128.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 18.6N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 20.2N 131.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 20.0N 134.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z 19.3N 138.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A DEVELOPING\r\nSMALL DENSE OVERCAST.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n55 KT...AND COINCIDES WITH THE SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR LANE TO BECOME A HURRICANE...AND THIS SHOULD OCCUR\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE...AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD INDUCE\r\nRAPID WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND THE LGEM...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE IVCN\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/7. LANE IS MOVING WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STRETCHING\r\nWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE ON\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...LANE\r\nIS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AS A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY STEERING FLOW.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS\r\nBASED ON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 14.4N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 15.3N 126.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 16.7N 127.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 18.3N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 19.7N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 20.7N 131.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 20.2N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH\r\nA MORE SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HINTS OF AN EYE ON\r\nTHE LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES.  MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW A SMALL\r\nINNER CORE WITH PERHAPS A PINHOLE EYE FORMING.  WHILE THE\r\nSUBJECTIVE-BASED DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT...MICROWAVE-BASED\r\nESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL BE\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT\r\n24H OR SO WHILE LANE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LOW SHEAR.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...FAIRLY STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO A SHARP\r\nDECLINE IN SSTS AND A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  LANE SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN   \r\nDAYS 2-3 DUE TO COLD WATERS BELOW 23C.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE POSITIONS GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/8. \r\nTHIS GENERAL COURSE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE LANE\r\nIS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO.  A SHARP\r\nWESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED AFTER 48H AS THE STORM WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.  THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK\r\nINVERTED TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGES TO THE NORTH OF LANE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A SMALL AMOUNT EASTWARD THROUGH\r\n72H....BUT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 15.0N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 16.0N 126.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 17.7N 127.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 19.2N 128.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 20.3N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 20.7N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 20.0N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE HAS EVOLVED INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER FULLY\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN\r\nORGANIZATION SINCE LATE YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED\r\nTO A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE BASIS OF THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 65 KT. LANE IS\r\nAPPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nCOLDER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH LIMITS THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE COLDER WATERS AND A SIGNIFICANT\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS SHOULD HASTEN\r\nWEAKENING...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT\r\n72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH FSSE/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT\r\nTO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08.  LANE\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SHARPLY TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  BASED LARGELY ON THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL MOTION...THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE\r\nFIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 15.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 18.6N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 20.0N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 20.7N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 20.9N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nAN EYE WAS APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AROUND 1200 UTC...BUT\r\nHAS SINCE BEEN OBSCURED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IT IS ASSUMED\r\nTHAT OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO LANE WILL BE OVER WATERS\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM TO ALLOW A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER...\r\nIN 24 HOURS THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nCOOL TO LESS THAN 24 DEG C...SO STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE BEGUN\r\nBY THAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE LATEST STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE. LANE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nLANE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF ABOUT 330/9.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE WEST OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE WEST OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nLANE SHOULD DRIVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE EARLIER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND\r\nABOUT THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE LATTER PART.  THIS IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION AND CLOSE TO THE HURRICANE\r\nFORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM...HFIP...CONSENSUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 16.7N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 17.9N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 19.4N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 20.7N 129.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 21.4N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 21.4N 133.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nINNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...AND\r\nA NARROW RING OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW COMPLETELY ENCIRCLES THE\r\nSLIGHTLY CLOUD-FILLED EYE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nT4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB...T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND RECENT NHC AODT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.3/73 KT. AN AVERAGE OF THESE VALUES\r\nSUPPORTS INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/08 KT. HURRICANE LANE IS ON TRACK\r\nAND THE LATEST 12Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING. LANE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nA DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS UNTIL THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS INTO A POST-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE. AFTERWARD...THE\r\nSHALLOW REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STEERED WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.\r\n\r\nLANE HAS LIKELY PEAKED OR WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6\r\nHOURS SINCE THE HURRICANE IS NOW OVER 26C SSTS...AND WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A COOLER...DRIER...AND\r\nMORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE RESULT SHOULD BE STEADY\r\nWEAKENING BEGINNING BY THE 12-HOUR FORECAST TIME...AND CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY 48 HOURS...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR \r\n30 KT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LANE BECOMING A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT\r\nLOW SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 17.6N 127.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 18.8N 127.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 20.2N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 21.2N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 21.6N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 21.2N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 19.9N 138.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 17 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE IN THE\r\nEYEWALL OF LANE...ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED.  MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SHOWS THAT THE MID-LEVEL EYE IS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER...AN INDICATION THAT SOUTHERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN. \r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY THE SAME AS 6 HR AGO...SO THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 70 KT.  LANE SHOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN ON\r\nTUESDAY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nRATHER COLD WATERS.  THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE LANE TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/9.  LANE SHOULD TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE REMNANTS OF LANE SHOULD MOVE A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST DUE TO A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC OCEAN.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...STAYING ON THE GFS AND ECMWF SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 18.4N 127.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 19.5N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 20.6N 129.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 21.3N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 21.4N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 20.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 19.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\n\r\nA FEW HOURS AGO...SSMIS AND AMSU MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED AN EYE\r\nFEATURE. SINCE THAT TIME...CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE AND DEEP CONVECTON IS\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASING. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUPPORT LOWERING THE\r\nINTENSITY TO 65 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. LANE IS ALREADY MOVING OVER\r\nCOOL WATERS...AND THE SHEAR IS INCREASING.  ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING. IN FACT...MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL...SHIPS...AND LGEM MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS\r\nOR EARLIER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS ON THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS LANE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A\r\nSHALLOW CYCLONE...IT WILL MOST LIKELY TURN TO THE WEST STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 19.3N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 20.3N 128.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 21.0N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 21.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 20.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF LANE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT...ALBEIT OPEN TO THE\r\nSOUTH...IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS...WHICH HAS MADE LOCATING THE CENTER EASIER. ALTHOUGH THE EYE\r\nHAS BECOME MORE EVIDENT...THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE\r\nHAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A REDUCTION IN THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nT3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. GIVEN THAT LANE RECENTLY SHOWED AN EYE\r\nFEATURE...THE INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING LOWERED TO 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/8. LANE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE\r\nNORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AS A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE LIFTS IT POLEWARD. HOWEVER...THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM MOTION SINCE THE LOW-LEVEL AND\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING ENSUES. BY\r\n24 HOURS...THE SHALLOW VORTEX OF A SEVERELY WEAKENED LANE IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE NORTHWARD\r\nINITIAL POSITION...AND LIES CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HURRICANE\r\nFORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM TV15.\r\n\r\nSTEADY OR POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE\r\nPERIOD AS LANE MOVES OVER SHARPLY COOLER SSTS OF LESS THAN 22C...\r\nAND ALSO ENCOUNTERS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF\r\nMORE THAN 25 KT. LANE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT\r\nLOW BY 48 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER FOR\r\nBOTH SCENARIOS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 20.1N 127.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 20.9N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 21.5N 129.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 21.5N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\nTHE WHEELS ARE QUICKLY COMING OFF NOW THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM BARELY MEETS THE CONVECTIVE CRITERION FOR CLASSIFICATION\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS A RESULT. THE STORM IS IN THE FAST LANE OF\r\nRAPID WEAKENING AS IT INGESTS COOL...STABLE AIR TO ITS WEST AND\r\nSOUTH...AND ALSO MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A FASTER WEAKENING TREND THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY\r\nMODELS...WHICH SOON MAKE LANE JUST A FADED MEMORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/7. WHAT APPEARED TO BE A\r\nSLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ACTUALLY JUST\r\nTHE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHEARING AWAY...AND THOSE FEATURES\r\nARE NO LONGER EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS ALMOST FULLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOME\r\nRESIDUAL CONVECTION...AND LANE SHOULD BECOME A MORE SHALLOW VORTEX\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THAT IS STEERED WESTWARD UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF DEEP EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCE AND THE HFIP TV15.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 20.6N 129.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 21.1N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 21.4N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 21.4N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 21.2N 134.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 20.8N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 18 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LITTLE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED NORTHEAST AWAY\r\nFROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF LANE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nDECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB. A QUICK DEMISE TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS EXPECTED BY\r\n24 HOURS AS LANE MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 22C. THE REMNANT LOW\r\nSHOULD DISSIPATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF AND\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DECAYING VORTEX WILL BE\r\nSTEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 20.8N 130.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 21.1N 131.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 21.2N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 21.0N 134.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 20.7N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lane","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012\r\n \r\nLANE STOPPED PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nAND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE CENTER IS NOW\r\nOVER 21-22C WATER...AND LANE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW LATER THIS MORNING.  THE LOW SHOULD BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH BY 48\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR EVEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/8.  LANE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND THEN TURN WESTWARD TONIGHT DUE TO THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL TRADE WINDS.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 20.8N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 21.1N 131.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 21.0N 133.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 20.8N 135.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Lane","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP122012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012\r\n \r\nLANE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nNOW...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT\r\nLOW. BASED ON A 19/0546 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION TO WITHIN 25 N MI OF THE\r\nCENTER...SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH AN EXTENSIVE FIELD\r\nOF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND REMAINS OVER SUB-22C SSTS.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nWESTWARD AT ABOUT 280/5. THE VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF EASTERLY\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS\r\nROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO\r\nHEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 20.9N 131.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 21.0N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 20.9N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 20.8N 135.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 21 2012\r\n \r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 375 N MI\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD HAVE A FEW\r\nDAYS TO GAIN STRENGTH AS IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C\r\nWATERS AND STAY IN AN FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. IN\r\nFACT...THE SHIPS MODEL RI INDEX INDICATES ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE\r\nOF 30-KT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER A FEW\r\nDAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.\r\nTHESE LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER\r\nWATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nIN A FEW DAYS...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A THREAT TO LAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 13.7N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 13.9N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 14.3N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 14.9N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 15.7N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 17.5N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 18.5N 118.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 19.5N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE\r\nCONVECTION IS RAGGED NEAR THE CENTER...BUT THERE ARE BANDING\r\nFEATURES DEVELOPING IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE OUTFLOW IS FAIR\r\nINDICATING THAT THE SHEAR IS LOW. IN FACT...SHIPS MODEL MAINTAINS\r\nVERY LOW SHEAR THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30\r\nKNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS. DUE TO THE LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE WARM OCEAN...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CIRCULATION WILL BE NEARING\r\nCOOL WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE BIT UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER IS\r\nSTILL IN FORMATIVE STAGE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 6\r\nKNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED\r\nACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE FLOW\r\nAROUND THE RIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTO NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...AN EASTWARD\r\nMOVING SHORTWAVE WILL ERODE THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nMORE THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT BOTH THE GFS AND THE\r\nECMWF GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE HWRF/GFDL PAIR...TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE BULK OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS RECURVE THE CYCLONE EAST OF 118 DEGREES WEST.     \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 13.7N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 14.0N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 14.5N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 19.5N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED...WITH AN AREA OF COLD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER AND A\r\nLARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ALL SUPPORT NAMING THE\r\nSYSTEM AT THIS TIME...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT.\r\nMIRIAM IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATERS...SO\r\nSTEADY STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nWHILE THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF AN INNER-CORE STRUCTURE THAT WOULD\r\nSUGGEST RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS IMMINENT...THAT IS POSSIBLE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO IF AN INNER CORE CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE\r\nNEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH\r\nTHE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...SHOWING MIRIAM BECOMING A HURRICANE BY\r\n36 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS. LATE IN THE PERIOD...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nINCREASES. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS SLOWER WEAKENING BY DAY 5 AS\r\nMIRIAM SHOULD JUST BE NEARING THE 26C ISOTHERM AT THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS\r\nWHILE IT ORGANIZES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN 285/04. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...\r\nAS MIRIAM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nON THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE\r\nTO THE NORTH WITH A FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE TVCE\r\nCONSENSUS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO\r\nTHE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A MORE\r\nPOLEWARD MOTION. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BY THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOWING A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET TURN MIRIAM WESTWARD. LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD THE NHC TRACK SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION...CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A LITTLE\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE TVCE CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 13.9N 107.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 14.4N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 15.4N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 16.5N 111.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 17.5N 113.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 21.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESETNATION OF MIRIAM HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THERE ARE NOW SEVERAL CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO\r\nAN AREA OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER...AN ASCAT\r\nPASS FROM AROUND 1730 UTC SUGGESTED THAT MIRIAM WAS NOT AS STRONG\r\nAS EARLIER SATELLITE ESTIMATES INDICATED...SHOWING ONLY A COUPLE OF\r\n30 KT WIND VECTORS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE IMPROVING\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.\r\nMIRIAM APPEARS POISED FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH SOME SIGNS OF A\r\nDEVELOPING INNER CORE AND A TRACK OVER VERY WARM WATERS IN A LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. IN FACT...THE SHIPS\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS THAN A 25-KT INCREASE IN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS IS LIKELY AND A 30-KT INCREASE IS ABOUT A 50/50\r\nPROPOSITION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED IN\r\nTHE SHORT RANGE AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS MODEL AND\r\nCLOSE TO THE HWRF THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...MIRIAM WILL\r\nBE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING BY THE\r\nEND OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS AND VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE POSITION FROM\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY. DUE TO THE RELOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY-UNCERTAIN 300/08. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nMIRIAM SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC. THROUGH 48 HOURS THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT\r\n40-50 N MI TO THE RIGHT OF THE OLD ONE DUE TO THE REPOSITIONING OF\r\nTHE CENTER AND AN ADJUSTMENT HALFWAY TOWARD THE NEW TVCE MULTI-\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 AN AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL WEAKEN THE\r\nRIDGE...BUT THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT AS TO\r\nHOW MUCH LATITUDE MIRIAM WILL GAIN. AT ONE EXTREME...THE GFDL AND\r\nGFS SHOW A MOTION EAST OF DUE NORTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD AS\r\nMIRIAM INTERACTS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR 30N/130W BY DAY 5. ON\r\nTHE OTHER EXTREME THE ECMWF AND HWRF SHOW MIRIAM TURNING WESTWARD\r\nAND BYPASSING THE SHORTWAVE. SINCE MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BE A DEEP\r\nCYCLONE IT SHOULD GAIN AT LEAST SOME LATITUDE IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE. GIVEN THIS REASONING...AND A DESIRE TO MAINTAIN\r\nCONTINUITY DUE TO THE INCREASING MODEL SPREAD...THE NHC TRACK AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5 SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 14.3N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 14.8N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 16.1N 110.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 17.2N 111.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 18.2N 113.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 19.3N 115.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 20.2N 116.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 22 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE MORE DISTINCT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER...AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED IN THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...3.0/45 KT\r\nFROM SAB...AND 3.3/51 KT FROM UW-CIMSS. SINCE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER\r\nDATA INDICATED THAT THE STORM WAS WEAKER THAN ITS SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION SUGGESTED...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS ONLY INCREASED\r\nTO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR MIRIAM TO GAIN MORE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS MORE THAN A 50\r\nPERCENT CHANCE OF A 30-KT INTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE LOWER\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE HIGHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...LEANING\r\nTOWARDS THE HIGHER END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE SUPRISING IF MIRIAM STRENGTHENS MORE THAN\r\nFORECAST. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER\r\nWATERS OF ABOUT 26C AND INTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.\r\nTHESE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING\r\nTREND...AND CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nAFTER MOVING ERRATICALLY EARLIER TODAY...IT APPEARS THAT MIRIAM IS\r\nMOVING MORE STEADILY NOW. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n300/7. THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS STEERED BY\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK\r\nBECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND SOME\r\nOF THE HFIP GUIDANCE PREDICT MIRIAM TO TURN TO THE NORTH OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS\r\nSHOW A TURN TO THE WEST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nLATEST SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS ABOUT 1000 N MI BY DAY\r\n5. THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE LARGE MODEL DIVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE DUE\r\nTO DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST AND THE VERTICAL DEPTH OF MIRIAM. OVERALL...THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 14.9N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 15.6N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 16.8N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 18.5N 114.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 19.4N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 20.3N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A SMALL CDO\r\nFEATURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS\r\nALSO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A\r\nCONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nVALUES WERE T3.5/55 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS INCREASED TO 45 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS...AND CONTINUES TO EXPAND AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THE\r\nCENTER HAS DEVELOPED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n310/07 KT. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. BY DAYS 4 AND\r\n5...HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN\r\nDUE TO A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE NEW 23/00Z ECMWF\r\nMODEL MADE A MAJOR TRACK SHIFT TO THE EAST AND IS NOW THE RIGHTMOST\r\nOF ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS\r\nGFS MODEL RUNS. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS HAVE\r\nCONTINUED THEIR MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LATTER PERIODS. GIVEN\r\nTHAT MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FAIRLY ROBUST HURRICANE BY 72\r\nHOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS SINCE BOTH OF THOSE MODELS DEVELOP A DEEPER VORTEX\r\nTHAT IS LIFTED NORTHWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5 BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nFORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nIN FACT...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW \r\n5 KT FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION OCCURS AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. DUE\r\nTO MIRIAM FORECAST TO BE FARTHER EAST AND OVER WARMER WATERS THAN\r\nPREVIOUS EXPECTED ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE INTENSITY WAS NUDGED UPWARD\r\nSLIGHTLY AT THOSE LATTER TIME PERIODS...AND MIGHT NEED TO BE\r\nINCREASED ON SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES IF A FURTHER EASTWARD SHIFT IN\r\nTHE FORECAST IS WARRANTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE HWRF AND FSSE MODELS...\r\nBOTH OF WHICH ARE ABOVE THE REMAINING NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 16.2N 110.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 18.1N 113.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 18.7N 114.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 19.8N 115.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 20.8N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 21.8N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF MIRIAM\r\nCONTINUES TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION.  A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST HAS FORMED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST 6-12\r\nHOURS.  THERE IS ALSO PLENTY OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE...AND BANDING HAS BEEN INCREASING.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND UW-CMSS ADT\r\nCI VALUES ARE AT 3.6.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS RAISED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/07.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO\r\nMAINTAIN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT TURNS\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  BY 48 HOURS...MIRIAM SHOULD ENCOUNTER A\r\nWEAKNESS ALONG 115W AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD\r\nTURN AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY\r\nPERIOD.  THERE REMAINS A NOTABLE SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER\r\n72 HOURS...PARTIALLY DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION OF MIRIAM\r\nWITH A CUT-OFF LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT\r\n4 DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST HAS SHIFTED TOWARD THE EAST...FOLLOWING\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO REMAINS\r\nON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS\r\nTHE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nMIRIAM SHOULD BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SSTS...A VERY\r\nMOIST MID-TROPOSPHERE...AND LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX RESPONDS TO THESE FAVORABLE\r\nPARAMETERS BY SHOWING A 75% CHANCE OF A 30 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...MIRIAM SHOULD BE NORTH OF\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR ALONG WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nAT THAT TIME...BUT THE RATE OF WEAKENING SEEMS DEPENDENT ON THE\r\nEXACT TRACK OF THE CYCLONE AS WELL AS ITS POTENTIAL INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE AFORMENTIONED CUT-OFF LOW. A TRACK FARTHER EAST COULD KEEP\r\nMIRIAM OVER WARMER WATER LONGER AND AWAY FROM EVEN STRONGER SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUT-OFF LOW. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS INCREASED A BIT IN THE SHORT TERM RELATIVE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BUT IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 15.6N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 16.5N 110.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 17.6N 112.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 18.5N 113.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 20.2N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 21.4N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH COLD CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPEATURES. A 1554 UTC SSMIS PASS SHOWED A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL\r\nEYE...AND A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION WAS EVIDENT IN AN\r\nEARLIER WINDSAT PASS.  IN ADDITION...TIGHTLY COILED BANDS DOMINATE\r\nTHE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 3.5\r\nAND 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CI\r\nVALUES ARE AT 4.4.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 60 KT.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS BEEN\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE. A LONGER-TERM\r\nAVERAGE OF FIXES SUGGESTS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/08.\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION\r\nAS MIRIAM ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ARE EXPECTED FROM 48-96 HOURS\r\nAS MIRIAM MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 115W...CREATED BY A SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE LATTER PART\r\nOF THE FORECAST PARTIALLY HINGES ON THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION WITH\r\nA MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO FORM WEST OR NORTHWEST OF\r\nMIRIAM. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS STILL RATHER SIGNIFICANT...\r\nESPECIALLY BEYOND 96 HOURS...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IS NOTED BETWEEN\r\nTHIS CYCLE AND THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ON THE RIGHT\r\nSIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...CLOSEST TO THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nMIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIROMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE RATE OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION COULD POTENTIALLY BE RAPID AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nSHIPS RI INDEX.  IN 2-3 DAYS...MIRIAM SHOULD CROSS THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AXIS AND SHOULD ALSO INTERACT WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE.  AN INCREASE IN SHEAR RELATED TO\r\nTHE ABOVE FACTORS AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD PROMOTE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY\r\nPERIOD...WITH EVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MIRIAM DECOUPLING ENTIRELY AS\r\nDEPICTED BY ECMWF. A CRITICAL ELEMENT OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCOULD BE THE LONGITUDE WHERE MIRIAM TURNS NORTHWARD...SINCE THE\r\nEXACT TRACK OF THE CYCLONE WITH RESPECT TO A STRONG GRADIENT IN\r\nSSTS COULD DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY THE CYCLONE WEAKENS.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS AND IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 16.1N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 16.8N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 17.9N 113.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 18.7N 114.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 19.4N 115.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 20.7N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 22.3N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 23 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS STRENGTHENED RAPIDLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO. AN\r\nEYE...WHICH HAD BEEN EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE DATA EARLIER TODAY...\r\nBECAME APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES A FEW HOURS AGO.\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS WELL ORGANIZED WITH COLD CLOUD TOPS\r\nSURROUNDING THE RAGGED EYE AND BANDING FEATURES LOCATED IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.0/65\r\nKT FROM TAFB...4.5/77 KT FROM SAB...AND 4.7/82 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 80 KT...NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE\r\nESTIMATES GIVEN THE IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE TIME\r\nOF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nMIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF\r\n27-28C AND IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...MIRIAM IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS\r\nAND IN MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR. THESE UNFAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD END THE STRENGTHENING TREND...AND CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO WEAKEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS AND THEN FALLS IN LINE WITH THE\r\nOLD ONE AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nMIRIAM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THIS GENERAL HEADING\r\nWITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF MIRIAM WEAKENS.\r\nAFTER THAT...A TURN TO THE NORTH AT AN EVEN SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST AS THE HURRICANE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS NEAR THE RIGHT SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS AIDS TO THE WEST AND\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 16.8N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 17.6N 112.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 18.5N 113.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 19.2N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 19.8N 115.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 21.2N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 22.5N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN. A SMALL 10 N MI DIAMETER\r\nCOULD-FILLED EYE IS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF A COLD\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE THAT HAS BECOME MORE CIRCULAR OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS\r\nT5.0/90 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ESTIMATE IS\r\nT5.6/105 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 90 KT...WHICH COULD BE ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 305/11 KT. MIRIAM IS BASICALLY ON\r\nTRACK...SO THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nTO THE EAST OF AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE\r\nTO MIRIAM FORECAST TO BE A DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST CYCLONE SIMILAR\r\nTO WHAT THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING. THE UKMET MODEL\r\nWAS COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED SINCE IT WAS WAS POORLY INITIALIZED AND\r\nIS ONLY FORECASTING A VERY WEAK AND SHALLOW CYCLONE THAT DISSIPATES\r\nAND MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWEST AND WESTWARD WITH TIME...WHICH HAS\r\nRESULTED IN A DEGRADATION OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND TVCE. A\r\nBROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND CREATE A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 48 HOURS. THIS CHANGING FLOW PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN MIRIAM NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nRECURVE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nON DAYS 4 AND 5. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WEST BIAS OF THE UKMET...\r\nGFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT\r\nSLOWER THAN A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF\r\nFORECAST TRACKS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE SMALL-DIAMETER EYE AND LOW SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS OR SO...ADDITIONAL RAPID STRENGTHENING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSEEMS HIGHLY PLAUSIBLE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MIRIAM COULD EVEN REACH\r\nCATEGORY 4 INTENSITY...BUT THE RATHER SMALL EYE COULD NEGATE THAT\r\nPOSSIBILITY DUE TO A PROBABLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SOMETIME\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND...MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS FAST AS INDICATED IN\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES NOW THAT MIRIAM IS FORECAST TO BE FARTHER EAST\r\nAND...THEREFORE...OVER WARMER SSTS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN FOLLOWS\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS TV15 AND IVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 17.3N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 18.0N 113.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 18.8N 114.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 19.6N 114.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 20.4N 115.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 25.5N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 24 2012\r\n \r\nTHE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT MIRIAM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING\r\nCONTINUES.  THE HURRICANE HAS MAINTAINED A COMPACT AND FAIRLY\r\nSYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A PINHOLE EYE...EVIDENT\r\nIN FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY...HAS ALSO BEEN WARMING. A 0829 UTC\r\nTRMM PASS SUGGESTED THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING AT A\r\nLARGE RADIUS...BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF IT CONTRACTING.  DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE 5.5 AND 5.0 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE\r\nLATEST ADT CI VALUES ARE 5.8.  A BLEND OF THESE DATA YIELD AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 105 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF MIRIAM HAS BEEN WOBBLING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH THESE WOBBLES GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\nOF 305/10.  MIRIAM IS ABOUT TO MOVE AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 115W. \r\nTHIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AND\r\nA REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A MID-/\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE FORMS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNA COAST\r\nON DAYS 4-5 AND SLIDES EASTWARD...MIRIAM SHOULD BE PUSHED NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR EVEN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nLARGELY UNCHANGED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE FORECAST\r\nREMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...HEAVILY\r\nWEIGHTED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.\r\n \r\nBARRING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...MIRIAM COULD STILL INTENSIFY A\r\nBIT MORE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND\r\nOVER WARM WATERS.  A GRADUAL DECAY IS LIKELY FROM 24-48 HOURS AS\r\nMIRIAM MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS...FOLLOWED BY A STEADIER\r\nDECLINE AFTER THAT AS MIRIAM ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY FLOW.  BY DAYS 4-5...A FURTHER INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED AS MIRIAM INTERACTS WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO ITS WEST. \r\nTHIS SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND PERHAPS A DECOUPLING\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...AS DEPICTED IN THE ECWMF.  ALTHOUGH THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE GUIDANCE...IT IS LOWER\r\nCOMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FROM DAYS 3-5.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 17.7N 112.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 18.4N 113.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 19.1N 114.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 20.9N 115.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 22.8N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 24.8N 114.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 26.1N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  12...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2012\r\n \r\nCORRECTED STATUS AT DAY 5\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT MIRIAM HAS BEEN UNDERGOING HAS COME\r\nTO AN END...AS THERE HAS BEEN A DEGRADATION IN THE SATELLITE\r\nAPPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IN THE LAST FEW HOURS. CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN WARMING AND THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nLESS DISTINCT.  A 1640 UTC TRMM IMAGE INDICATED THAT AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT COULD BE UNDERWAY...WITH A SMALL INNER EYEWALL EVIDENT\r\nAND AN OUTER EYEWALL HAVING CONTRACTED SLIGHTLY TO A RADIUS OF 50 N\r\nMI. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE LEVELED OFF AT 5.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE\r\nAGENCIES...AND UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES HAVE DECREASED TO 5.6. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 105 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHESE DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF MIRIAM HAS WOBBLED A BIT TO THE LEFT DURING THE LAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND HAS SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED.  A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF\r\nCENTER FIXES GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 305/08.  MIRIAM\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...MIRIAM SHOULD MOVE INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS ALONG 115W AND TURN NORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW FORMING OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST FROM DAYS 3-5 SHOULD PUSH THE TRACK OF\r\nMIRIAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...OR EVEN NORTHEASTWARD...DURING THAT\r\nTIME.  NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WHICH IS WEIGHTED HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND\r\nGFS MODELS.  AS IN PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS...THIS IS NEAR THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nIT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT WILL\r\nCONTINUE.  IN ANY EVENT...A COMPLETION OF THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR BEFORE MIRIAM REACHES MARGINALLY WARM\r\nWATERS AND SOME INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE INTERIM AND AFTERWARDS AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES CLOSE TO A STRONG GRADIENT OF SSTS AND EXPERIENCES\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED THE ABOVEMENTIONED CLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TO\r\nTHE WEST OF MIRIAM WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THERE IS\r\nNOW A GENERAL AGREEMENT OF BOTH THE ECWMF AND GFS GUIDANCE THAT\r\nTHIS WILL RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE AND A RAPID\r\nWEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED RELATIVE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...REPRESENTING AN AVERAGE OF THE SHIPS/LGEM AND\r\nTHE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IN\r\nINDICATED ON DAY 5.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 18.1N 113.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 18.5N 114.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 19.3N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 20.1N 115.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 21.1N 115.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 23.4N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 25.5N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 27.5N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 24 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE EYE HAS BECOME\r\nOVERCAST AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER RECENTLY.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYEWALL...WHICH WAS\r\nEVIDENT IN A TRMM PASS AROUND 17Z...HAS COLLAPSED. IN ADDITION...\r\nTHE LATEST SSMI OVERPASS SHOWED AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE...WHICH IS\r\nLIKELY THE RESULT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED THIS CYCLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nLOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS. \r\n\r\nA GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF MIRIAM...INCREASES A LITTLE. LATER IN THE\r\nWEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nDEVELOPING NEAR 30N 130W. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE A FURTHER INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. IN FACT...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TITLED VORTEX THAT IS BEING AFFECTED\r\nBY A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR AND WESTERLY FLOW IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n\r\nMIRIAM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BUT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER\r\nFORWARD SPEED. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS MIRIAM MOVES TOWARD A TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES. BEYOND THAT TIME...A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST AS MIRIAM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS\r\nBETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 18.5N 113.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 19.0N 114.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 19.8N 114.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 20.7N 115.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 21.8N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 23.7N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 25.5N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 27.0N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE MIRIAM HAS\r\nCOMPLETED ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND A 30 N MI DIAMETER EYE\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAROUND THE EYE OVER THE PAST 4 HOURS...AND UW-CIMSS ADT AND NHC\r\nAODT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T5.3/97 KT AND\r\nT5.6/105 KT...RESPECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING MAINTAINED AT 90 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/05 KT. MIRIAM IS ON TRACK AND...\r\nAS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TURN NORTHWARD IN 24-36 HOURS\r\nAS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN WEAK SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW\r\nBETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE EAST AND A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE UKMET MODEL\r\nREMAINS A SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER WITH A STRONG WEST BIAS AND HAS...\r\nTHEREFORE...BEEN DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE. AS A RESULT...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS TV15 AND TVCE...AND IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BETTER DEPICT A STRONGER AND MORE\r\nVERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE AS CURRENTLY ANALYZED.\r\n \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MIRIAM\r\nIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. BY DAYS 3-5...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING NEAR 30N 130W.\r\nTHIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR ABOVE 30 KT...\r\nWHICH SHOULD INDUCE MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND POSSIBLE DISSIPATION\r\nBEFORE MIRIAM REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 18.7N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 19.3N 114.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 20.1N 115.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 21.1N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 22.1N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 24.0N 115.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 25.7N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 27.2N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MIRIAM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH\r\nDURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL\r\nORGANIZED...CONSISTING OF A CIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nCOMPRISED OF PLENTY OF OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST\r\nTHAT AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS STILL ONGOING...WITH A\r\nFRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL LIKELY REMAINING AND AN OUTER EYEWALL\r\nAT ABOUT 30 N MI RADIUS GRADUALLY CONTRACTING. DVORAK T- AND\r\nCI-NUMBERS ARE 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES\r\nARE AT 5.6. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT...BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF THE ABOVE DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF MIRIAM HAS BEEN SLOWING DURING THE LAST 12-24\r\nHOURS.  A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF CENTER FIXES GIVES AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/04. MIRIAM SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nSOON AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG\r\n115W. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW FORMING OFFSHORE OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2-3 DAYS COULD ALLOW FOR A NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST MOTION BY DAY 3. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VIRTUALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCE THROUGH 36 HOURS AND IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AT\r\nLATER TIMES.\r\n \r\nTHE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL NOT LIKELY COMPLETE ITSELF BEFORE\r\nMIRIAM MOVES OVER MARGINAL SSTS AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS.  DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...A PREVAILING MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN A STEADY\r\nWEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE.  A FURTHER INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF MIRIAM SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 72 HOURS.  RAPID WEAKENING\r\nIS FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME AND MIRIAM COULD DECOUPLE ENTIRELY...AS\r\nDEPICTED IN BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LOWER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT AS LOW AS\r\nTHE SHIPS... LGEM AND FSSE OUTPUT SUGGESTS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 18.7N 114.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 19.3N 114.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 20.2N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 21.2N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 22.2N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 23.9N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 25.3N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z 26.7N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF MIRIAM HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN DECREASING...WHILE THE CENTRAL FEATURES OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAVE BECOME LESS DISTINCT.  UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A DEVELOPING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY NEAR 26N111W IS ALREADY IMPINGING ON MIRIAM...WITH SHIPS\r\nAND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING 20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE AT 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB...WHILE ADT CI VALUES ARE RUNNING A BIT HIGHER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 75 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHESE DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE ABOVEMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MIRIAM WILL\r\nPRODUCE PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS.  AS A RESULT...\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AS THE SHEAR\r\nBECOMES MORE EXTREME BY DAY 3...THE GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT MIRIAM\r\nDECOUPLING AND LIKELY DISSIPATING BY DAY 5.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS REDUCED AGAIN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ONE IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM OUTPUT.  GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL\r\nAGREEMENT...REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...ON DAY 3.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/04.  MIRIAM IS ABOUT TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD COMMENCE BY TOMORROW AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 115W.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE IN THE SHORT TERM...\r\nPARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION THAT HAS\r\nPERSISTED LONGER THAN EXPECTED.  SINCE IT APPEARS THAT MIRIAM WILL\r\nBECOME A SHALLOW VORTEX SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...THE NHC\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 18.9N 114.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 19.6N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 20.7N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 21.9N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 24.2N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 25.5N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Miriam","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 25 2012\r\n \r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS CONTINUING TO TAKE ITS TOLL\r\nON MIRIAM THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTION IS LOSING ITS CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST AND BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE OF A SHEAR PATTERN. DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM\r\nSAB WHILE A 2214Z AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS WAS 72 KT. A\r\nBLEND OF THESE GIVES 70 KT AT THE ADVISORY TIME. \r\n\r\nTWO FORTUITOUS AMSU AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES PROVIDE A RELATIVELY\r\nCONFIDENT ESTIMATE THAT THE MOTION OF MIRIAM IS NEAR 310/4. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nWEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS EAST. A CONTINUED SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AS\r\nTHE SYSTEM TRANSFORMS INTO A REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHWEST WHILE BEING ADVECTED ALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE\r\nTRACK PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW FORECAST IS ALSO CLOSE TO THE TRACK\r\nCONSENSUS EXCLUDING THE UKMET...AS THIS MODEL HAS AN\r\nUNREALISTICALLY SLOW SPEED IN COMPARISON TO ALL OF THE REMAINING\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nMIRIAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNDER THE COMBINED\r\nINFLUENCE OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...COOLING SSTS AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW AROUND\r\nTHREE DAYS AS THE SSTS BY THAT TIME SHOULD BE AROUND 24C.  THE\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS STATISTICAL\r\nMODELS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 19.1N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 19.8N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 21.0N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 22.2N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 22.9N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 24.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 26 2012\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF MIRIAM HAS GONE RAPIDLY DOWNHILL OVER\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS ALSO\r\nBECOME RATHER ELONGATED...AND AN EARLIER EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER\r\nAPPARENT ON MICROWAVE DATA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 55-72 KT...AND GIVEN THE POOR SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 60 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...GRADUALLY\r\nCOOLING SSTS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF A MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nAN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/5.  ALMOST ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE MOVE MIRIAM TO THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TODAY IN\r\nRESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH SEEN ALONG 120W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES. \r\nAS THE TROUGH DROPS SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR\r\nTWO...MIRIAN WILL PROBABLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO THE\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...LITTLE\r\nMOTION IS INDICATED AS THE WEAK REMNANT SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED\r\nIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 19.5N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 20.3N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 22.4N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 22.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 23.2N 116.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 23.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 26 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF MIRIAM HAS BECOME POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST HAS DEGENERATED INTO A LONG BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. SATELLITE DATA ALSO INDICATE AN\r\nINCREASING SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO\r\n20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nROTATING AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STORM. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE\r\nDETERIORATING SATELLITE APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 55 KT. FURTHER GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS MIRIAM\r\nENCOUNTERS CONTINUED MODERATE OR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS...AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nTHE LONG-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/05...BUT RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE SHORT-TERM MOTION COULD BE FARTHER\r\nTO THE RIGHT. AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS TO\r\nTHE WEST OF MIRIAM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. A BEND OF THE TRACK\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST WHEN THE SHORTWAVE REACHES A\r\nPOSITION TO THE SOUTH OF STORM IN 24-36 HOURS. IF MIRIAM DECOUPLES\r\nSOONER THAN EXPECTED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER COULD MOVE MORE TO THE\r\nLEFT THAN FORECAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSENSEMBLE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND\r\nTHEN CLOSE TO THE GFS AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 20.0N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 20.9N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 22.0N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 22.6N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 23.2N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.4N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MIRIAM CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AS THE\r\n20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DIAGNOSED OVER THE CYCLONE IS\r\nGRADUALLY TAKING A TOLL.  INNER CORE CONVECTION IS MINIMAL...AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN A BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.   \r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE SLOWLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND OF T-\r\nAND CI-NUMBERS IS USED TO ARRIVE AT THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF 50 KT.\r\n \r\nNO DECREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nPREDICTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE COMBINATION OF THE\r\nSHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF A\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD PROMOTE\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST ABOUT THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS LINE WITH THE SHIPS...LGEM...\r\nAND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS INDICATED IN 48\r\nHOURS...THOUGH IT COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE USED TO MAKE AN\r\nEASTWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER....AND HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN\r\nESTABLISHING A MORE CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION OF 350/06. SO LONG AS \r\nAS THE CIRCULATION OF MIRIAM MAINTAINS VERTICAL INTEGRITY...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD MOVE CYCLONICALLY AROUND A PIECE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND THE STORM. AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nMORE SHALLOW IN NATURE AND RESPONDS TO THE LOW- LEVEL FLOW...A\r\nWESTWARD BEND IS ANTICIPATED. THIS BEND COULD EVEN BE TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...AS DEPICTED IN SEVERAL MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS. THE NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 24\r\nHOURS...NEAR BUT TO THE NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 20.8N 115.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 21.6N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 22.4N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 22.8N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 22.9N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 22.9N 117.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 22.9N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 26 2012\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLIMITED TO A BAND LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK NUMBERS HAVE DROPPED TO T3.0/4.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nT2.0/3.0 FROM SAB.  BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FINAL-T AND CI\r\nNUMBERS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY A CI NUMBER OF 2.8 FROM THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nESTIMATE.\r\n\r\nMIRIAM WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF DEEP-LAYER\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE COMING DAYS...AND THE CENTER IS\r\nBEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WATER THAT IS COLDER THAN 26C.  THIS\r\nENVIRONMENT IS NOT LIKELY TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nAND MIRIAM COULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL AS EARLY AS THURSDAY IF\r\nCURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS HOLD.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SAME WEAKENING SHOWN BY THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nMIRIAM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT AS IT ROTATES\r\nAROUND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC LOW LOCATED NOT TOO FAR TO ITS WEST.  THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL SOON BE RUNNING INTO A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nCENTERED TO THE WEST OF CALIFORNIA...AND IT IS LIKELY TO BEGIN\r\nMOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. \r\nALMOST ALL THE TRACK MODELS SHOW THE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING MIRIAM\r\nSOUTHWARD BEFORE IT DISSIPATES...AND THAT SCENARIO IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 21.5N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 22.7N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 22.8N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 22.9N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 22.9N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 22.5N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM IS BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED BETWEEN 75 AND 105 N MI N OF THE CENTER.\r\nALTHOUGH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE LOWER THAN\r\nEARLIER...AN ASCAT PASS AT 0440 UTC HAD WINDS STILL HAD WINDS OF\r\nABOUT 40 KT.  IN CONSIDERATION OF THE LOW BIAS OF THAT SATELLITE...\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KT.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST BY\r\nALL GUIDANCE DUE TO MODERATE OR STRONG SHEAR AND COOL SSTS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT SHOWS\r\nMIRIAM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.  IF CURRENT\r\nCONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE...IT COULD BE SOONER THAN THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT MIRIAM IS MOVING AT ABOUT 330/5.\r\nTHE STORM SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD WITH\r\nTIME AS BECOMES STEERED BY THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT NOT\r\nAS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 21.8N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 22.3N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 22.5N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 22.5N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 22.4N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 27 2012\r\n \r\nENHANCED AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MIRIAM IS\r\nWEAKENING RAPIDLY...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS A SMALL PATCH LOCATED ABOUT 110 MILES TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT...\r\nWHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.  SHARPLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND A RATHER HOSTILE WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN THE CYCLONE TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.  MIRIAM IS THEN\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH\r\nDISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3 DAYS OR LESS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL AND THE LGEM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/5.  DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nMIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY THE EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  AFTERWARD...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT A LITTLE\r\nLEFT OF DUE WEST IN THE WEAK EAST-NORTHEASTERLY MARINE-LAYER\r\nSTEERING CURRENT BEFORE DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS...OR LESS.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE TVCE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 22.2N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 22.5N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 22.5N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 22.4N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 22.3N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 22.0N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Miriam","Adv":24,"Date":"2012-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LAST BIT OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DISSIPATED AROUND 1200 UTC THIS MORNING.  A 1708 UTC\r\nASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW WIND VECTORS JUST BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  GIVEN THE LACK OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION HAS LIKELY BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENING DURING THE DAY.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY SET AT 30 KT.  SUBSEQUENTLY...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO REDEVELOP SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL REMAIN OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 25C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONSISTING OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND A\r\nSURROUNDING STABLE AIR MASS.  MIRIAM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING IN 3\r\nDAYS OR LESS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/4...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  AFTERWARD...THE\r\nREMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AND\r\nTHEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AROUND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD IN THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADEWIND STEERING FLOW.  THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE TVCE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 22.1N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 22.0N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 21.7N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 21.4N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 21.2N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Miriam","Adv":25,"Date":"2012-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP132012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132012\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 27 2012\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS NOT PRODUCED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 TO 15 HOURS...\r\nAND IT THEREFORE NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MIRIAM\r\nHAS BECOME A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY THAT NHC\r\nWILL ISSUE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON\r\nAN EARLIER ASCAT PASS...BUT THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER COLD WATER.  DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nMIRIAM HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...BUT THE\r\nREMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nSINCE IT IS BEING BLOCKED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE\r\nUPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF MIRIAM WAS LOWERED DUE TO A REPORT OF 1000.2\r\nMB AND 24 KT OF WIND FROM THE SHIP MONTE VERDE...DCPC2.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 22.0N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 21.7N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 21.4N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 21.2N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 20.9N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA NOW HAS A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION. SHIPS OBSERVATIONS\r\nOF 45 TO 50 KT FROM ELEVATED ANEMOMETERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS AROUND 40 KT...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN AT THIS TIME. NORMAN IS SITUATED IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF 15 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT A\r\nDEGREE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES\r\nINLAND...SO THE NHC FORECAST ONLY SHOWS A LITTLE INTENSIFICATION\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...QUICK WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/14...AS NORMAN IS SITUATED\r\nBETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A\r\nMID-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND NORMAN IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MAY TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nUSERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE\r\nCENTER SINCE NORMAN HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO\r\nEXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND FAR\r\nWESTERN DURANGO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 22.8N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 24.8N 108.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 26.5N 109.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 27.5N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LESS-ORGANIZED CLOUD\r\nPATTERN THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH NORMAN IS WELL-DEFINED IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM\r\nGUASAVE MEXICO. BASED ON THE DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT. NORMAN IS IN A RATHER HARSH\r\nENVIRONMENT OF 30 TO 40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS INDICATED ON\r\nTHE UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR PRODUCT. AS A RESULT...THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nSEVERELY TILTED IN THE VERTICAL...WITH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY\r\nDISPLACED ABOUT A DEGREE TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOW THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASING AND BECOMING MORE WESTERLY AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER NORMAN MOVES INLAND...\r\nAND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/14. NORMAN IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED NORTHWARD BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWARD HEADING THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 24.4N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 25.6N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 26.2N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 28 2012\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF NORMAN IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...BUT MEXICAN RADAR FROM GUASAVE SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF ROTATION IS ABOUT 20 N MI OFF THE COAST OF SINALOA.  THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED...WITH ALL\r\nOF THE DEEP CONVECTION NOW TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE\r\nTO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.  BASED ON THIS...IT IS ASSUMED THAT\r\nNORMAN IS NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nAND HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A CONTINUED INCREASE IN\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD CAUSE NORMAN TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY\r\nSUNDAY MORNING...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nNORMAN IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN\r\nESTIMATED MOTION OF 345/9 KT.  LOW-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING\r\nACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD\r\nCAUSE NORMAN TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE IT\r\nDISSIPATES.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE WEST OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE SEVERAL OF THE MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...AND GFDL...SHOW NORMAN SKIRTING THE COAST AND TURNING\r\nWESTWARD BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  IF THAT HAPPENS...THE\r\nCHANCES FOR REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ARE EXTREMELY LOW.\r\n\r\nEVEN IF NORMAN DOES NOT ACTUALLY MAKE LANDFALL...MOST OF THE\r\nINCLEMENT WEATHER IS LOCATED EAST OF THE CENTER AND WILL STILL\r\nLIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ACROSS SINALOA AND\r\nWESTERN DURANGO THROUGH SATURDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 25.2N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 26.0N 109.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 26.3N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER MOVING ASHORE ABOUT 10 N MI WEST OF TOPOLOBAMPO AROUND 0500\r\nUTC...THE CENTER OF NORMAN IS BACK OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\nHOWEVER...THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED WITH ONLY A\r\nSMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINING.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE\r\nREDUCED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  STRONG\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NORMAN...WITH THE DEPRESSION LIKELY\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE\r\nTURN THE SMALL CYCLONE WESTWARD AND DISSIPATE IT WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS SINALOA\r\nAND WESTERN DURANGO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 25.9N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 26.1N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012\r\n \r\nNORMAN HAS LACKED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER SINCE 0400 UTC...AND IF\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nLATER TODAY. THE ONLY AREA OF NOTABLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CONFINED\r\nTO A DISORGANIZED BAND ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THIS ACTIVITY...WHICH IS EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM\r\nGUASAVE MEXICO...APPEARS TO BE OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT. DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS\r\nFORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nIN A HOSTILE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS ALL SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA. NORMAN...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES NEAR OR OVER THE BAJA\r\nPENNISULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE BAMS\r\nMODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 26.2N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 26.4N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Norman","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP142012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 29 2012\r\n \r\nNORMAN HAS BEEN DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST\r\n15 HOURS OR SO...AND IT IS NOW CLASSIFIED A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT\r\nLOW.  THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED WESTWARD...AND A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL IT DISSIPATES OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA\r\nPENNISULA BY EARLY SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nNORMAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nRADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO INDICATE THAT DISORGANIZED SHOWERS\r\nAND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LINGERING NEAR LOS MOCHIS. THIS\r\nACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 25.9N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 25.7N 111.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW ENOUGH CONVECTION AND ORGANIZATION FOR\r\nTHE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...BOTH TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY\r\nMARGINAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY\r\nFOLLOWS THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS\r\nFORMATIVE STAGE...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280/10. THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nLEAVING THE DEPRESSION IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE GENERAL SLOW\r\nWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 3 OR 4 DAYS...AND\r\nSO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES AND PERHAPS MICROWAVE DATA LATER TODAY WILL GIVE US\r\nA BETTER DESCRIPTION OF THE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. SOME\r\nADJUSTMENTS COULD BE NECESSARY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 14.0N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 15.0N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 16.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 16.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. A CONVECTIVE CLOUD BAND HAS GAINED CURVATURE OVER THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CIRCULATION AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nHAS PERSISTED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0/45 KT\r\nFROM SAB...T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...AND T2.4/34 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.\r\nBASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS\r\n40 KT...AND THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA.\r\n \r\nOLIVIA HAS A COUPLE OF DAYS TO STRENGTHEN AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE OVER WATERS AROUND\r\n28C DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO INCREASE...AND VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX BECOMING SHALLOWER WITH DEEP-LAYER\r\nDRY AIR IMPINGING ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS\r\nAIDS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS PREDICTED TO OCCUR AROUND DAY 5...A\r\nLITTLE LATER THAN IN THE OLD FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA\r\nMOVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA TO\r\nTURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY TUESDAY...THE WEAKENING\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST OR POSSIBLY EVEN\r\nSOUTHWEST AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 13.9N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 14.4N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 15.2N 121.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 15.8N 122.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 16.1N 122.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 16.1N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 15.5N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 06 2012\r\n\r\nOLIVIA IS STRENGTHENING THIS EVENING.  THE CLOUD PATTERN SHOWS A LOT\r\nOF CURVATURE WITH MANY BANDING FEATURES AND PERHAPS A DEVELOPING\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE BOTH 45 KT...SO THAT VALUE WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. \r\nTHERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT\r\nTO PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF OLIVIA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER PRESENT.  AFTER THAT TIME...AN\r\nINCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO START A\r\nWEAKENING TREND...WHICH COULD BE AIDED BY PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nIN THE FIRST 48 H AND NOW SHOWS OLIVIA BECOMING A HURRICANE...NOT\r\nTOO FAR FROM THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND LGEM MODELS.  IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISING...GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...IF\r\nTHE HIGHER PEAK INTENSITIES OF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND HWRF\r\nMODELS ENDED UP CLOSER TO REALITY. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST AT ABOUT 9 KT\r\nBENEATH A LARGE FLAT RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE RIDGE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AND SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO A\r\nSTRONG LOW DIVING DOWN THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nPATTERN CHANGE WILL LIKELY STEER OLIVIA MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nAND NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE\r\nMID-LEVEL STEERING AND BECOME SHALLOWER...WHICH WOULD CAUSE OLIVIA\r\nTO TURN TO THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE LONGER RANGE.  THE\r\nFORECAST MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH\r\nTHE BIGGEST DISCREPANCY BEING HOW LONG THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nCONTINUES.  SINCE OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN\r\nLAST TIME...THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE GAINING A BIT\r\nMORE LATITUDE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT STILL ENDS UP ALONG THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 14.0N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 14.6N 121.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 15.4N 122.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 16.0N 122.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 16.3N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.0N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 15.5N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 15.0N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012\r\n \r\nWINDSAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE DATA FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATE\r\nTHAT OLIVIA HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...AND RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BROKEN AND SOMEWHAT\r\nDISCONNECTED FROM THE INNER CIRCULATION.  NONETHELESS...DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T3.5 FROM SAB...AND A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THESE NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.\r\n\r\nOLIVIA IS MOVING OVER VERY WARM 29C WATER AND HAS RELATIVELY GOOD\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.  THE CYCLONE IS IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO BEFORE\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nALLOW OLIVIA TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ALTHOUGH\r\nONLY THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND HWRF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA REACHING\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY...THEIR SOLUTIONS SEEM REASONABLE SINCE STORMS\r\nWITH COMPACT INNER CORES TEND TO STRENGTHEN MORE EASILY THAN THOSE\r\nWITH BROADER CIRCULATIONS.  AFTER 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BECOME DECOUPLED.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nLIES NEAR THE HIGHER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n295/7 KT.  A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND\r\nBEING ON ITS WESTERN FLANK...OLIVIA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY THIS\r\nTIME TOMORROW.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...LED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nWHICH SHOW THE MOST PRONOUNCED NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE NHC TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION...NOT GOING AS FAR AS THE ECMWF AND\r\nGFS BUT ENDING UP NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCE.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.4N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 15.1N 121.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 16.0N 121.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 17.0N 122.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 16.5N 123.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 16.0N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 15.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH OLIVIA HAS LOST ITS BANDING FEATURES DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED. A RECENT\r\nTRMM PASS AND SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES SHOW A DISTINCT MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED ABOUT 30 N MI TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL FEATURE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR. ALTHOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE THIS\r\nCYCLE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT SINCE THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED RECENTLY.\r\n \r\nOLIVIA COULD GAIN SOME STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS IN ABOUT 10 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND STAYS\r\nOVER WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 28C. BY LATE TOMORROW...HOWEVER...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE...WHICH COULD LEAD\r\nTO THE DECOUPLING OF OLIVIA. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LOWERED A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nREMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/5. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND A DEEP-LAYER LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST OF\r\nNORTHERN CALIFORNIA SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TUESDAY...OLIVIA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN SOUTHWEST\r\nAS THE WEAKENING SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE AND IS STEERED BY\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A\r\nTAD TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...TRENDING\r\nTOWARD THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.5N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 15.2N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 16.1N 121.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 16.6N 121.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 16.8N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 16.4N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 15.9N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 15.3N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT OLIVIA HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER\r\nORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST FEATURE NOW A LITTLE LARGER AND CLOUD TOPS COLDER NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT IMPROVED STRUCTURE...A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS\r\nSUPPORT HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT.\r\n \r\nOLIVIA COULD STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND\r\nTHE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK.\r\nVERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW OLIVIA\r\nBEGINNING TO TILT NORTHEASTWARD WITH HEIGHT IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...\r\nAND BECOME COMPLETELY DECOUPLED IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT\r\nREMAINS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF OLIVIA HAS EITHER JUMPED OR REFORMED TO THE NORTH DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n340/5. DESPITE THE CENTER RELOCATION...THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING IS UNCHANGED. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS A DEEP-LAYER LOW MOVES\r\nTOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS STEERING FLOW SHOULD CAUSE OLIVIA\r\nTO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT...\r\nHOWEVER...MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SHALLOW CYCLONE TURNING\r\nWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...MAINLY BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION....AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS\r\nAIDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 15.5N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 16.2N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 16.9N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 17.2N 121.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 17.2N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 17.0N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 16.3N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 07 2012\r\n \r\nIT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE STRUCTURE AND PRECISE LOCATION\r\nOF OLIVIA IN GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES THIS EVENING.  THE MOST\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A SOUTHWEST-TO-\r\nNORTHEAST TILT BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS DUE TO\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  HOWEVER...THE RESOLUTION OF THE DATA\r\nDO NOT ALLOW A CLEAR PEEK OF THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THIS SMALL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THIS AFTERNOON...AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE-BASED\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING OLIVIA IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...SO THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT OR EARLY\r\nMONDAY AS IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  IN A DAY OR SO...THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO INCREASE...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT THE LOW-\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE LIKELY TO DECOUPLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS OLIVIA REACHING PEAK INTENSITY VERY\r\nSOON AND CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nPREDICTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER THAN IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nOLIVIA IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 KT. THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE\r\nCENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nAND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE FORWARD SPEED OF OLIVIA TO DECREASE.\r\nAFTER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM...\r\nIT IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 16.2N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 16.8N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 17.3N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.2N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 16.9N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 16.0N 125.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012\r\n \r\nASCAT DATA FROM 0552 UTC WAS INCREDIBLY HELPFUL FOR DETERMINING THE\r\nCENTER LOCATION OF OLIVIA AND ADJUSTING THE WIND RADII.  THE ASCAT\r\nAND OTHER MICROWAVE DATA CONFIRM THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND MOST OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WITH\r\nTHE ASCAT DATA SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT...AND TAFB AND SAB\r\nANALYSTS YIELDING 55 KT.  THE LOW BIAS AND RESOLUTION PROPERTIES OF\r\nASCAT WOULD SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 50 KT...WHICH WILL REMAIN\r\nTHE ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF OLIVIA.\r\n\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT OLIVIA...AND IT SEEMS\r\nTO HAVE BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  WHILE\r\nTHE WINDOW FOR STRENGTHENING IS CLOSING...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE MUCH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE INTENSITY OF\r\nOLIVIA SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE DURING THAT TIME.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nINCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 24 HOURS...AND OLIVIA IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN QUICKLY AS THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS BECOME\r\nDECOUPLED.  OLIVIA COULD BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY 48 HOURS AND IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE INTO A TROUGH BY 96 HOURS.\r\n\r\nOLIVIA HAS BEEN SLOWING DOWN...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4 KT. \r\nTHE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO WHILE IT REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE...BUT IT SHOULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY 24 HOURS AS\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE.  ONCE THE SHEAR INCREASES...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF THE TRADE WINDS.  THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FROM 24\r\nHOURS AND BEYOND...SO THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nSOUTHWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE BULK OF THE TRACK MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 16.4N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 16.9N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 16.9N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 16.7N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 16.5N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 15.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 08 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND A TRMM OVERPASS AROUND 1000 UTC INDICATE THAT\r\nOLIVIA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY WERE\r\nEARLIER...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 50 KT. GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE OF OLIVIA...AND BECAUSE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY INCREASE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY\r\nWEAKENING. OLIVIA WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS...WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS\r\nCOMPLETELY DECOUPLED. THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE TRMM PASS INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT\r\nRECENTLY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/3. LITTLE\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE STORM REMAINS IN WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS. A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON\r\nTUESDAY AS OLIVIA WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS\r\nAIDS AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 16.6N 121.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.8N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 16.8N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 16.6N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 16.2N 123.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 15.2N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2012\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND 1400 UTC. SINCE THEN...THE STORM HAS\r\nDECOUPLED FURTHER...AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 N\r\nMI AWAY FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN SHARPLY\r\nTHIS CYCLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40\r\nKT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS\r\nTHE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A DRIER AND \r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...\r\nOLIVIA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW EVEN SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM HAS MOVED LITTLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A WEST TO WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY\r\nAS A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF OLIVIA\r\nBECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK... AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.4N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.3N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 16.0N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 15.6N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 14.7N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 08 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS CAUSED THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS\r\nOF OLIVIA TO DECOUPLE DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS.  LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY SHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...WITH\r\nTHE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER NOW LOCATED A\r\nFEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHEAST.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO\r\nQUICKLY DECREASE...AND A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGESTS AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT.  OLIVIA SHOULD CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SPIN DOWN\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A RELATIVELY\r\nDRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND EVEN STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THE NEW NHC FORECASTS CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 12 HOURS...AND DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS SEPARATED EARLIER TODAY...THE\r\nMOTION HAS RESPONDED TO THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BY BECOMING MORE\r\nSOUTHERLY 190/04.  NOW A SHALLOW CYCLONE...OLIVIA SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL IT\r\nDISSIPATES.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE BETTER\r\nPERFORMING GFS AND ECWMF MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 15.7N 121.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 15.5N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 14.5N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 13.8N 125.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Olivia","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP152012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 09 2012\r\n \r\nOLIVIA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE\r\nPAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS MOVING FARTHER\r\nAWAY FROM WHATEVER FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS REMAIN.  THE SYSTEM NO\r\nLONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND HAS BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT BASED ON CI NUMBERS OF 2.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...ALLOWING THE CIRCULATION SOME TIME TO SPIN\r\nDOWN.  CONTINUED SHEAR AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CAUSE THE\r\nWINDS TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS NOW BEING STEERED SOUTHWESTWARD...OR\r\n220/6 KT...AROUND A LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nREMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nAS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A MORE PRONOUNCED TRADE WIND REGIME.  THE\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST STILL LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS AND\r\nIS JUST A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 15.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 14.8N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 14.2N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 13.6N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED\r\nSEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND SUFFICIENT\r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE...MAKING THE SYSTEM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL. THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A\r\nPARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC...WHICH SHOWED RELIABLE WIND\r\nVECTORS AROUND 30 KT.\r\n \r\nPAUL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AS TROUGHING BECOMES BETTER\r\nESTABLISHED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD ON SUNDAY AND THEN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY.\r\nALTHOUGH THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nCHANGE IN HEADING...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN WHERE THE\r\nTURN TAKES PLACE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS...TVCE AND TV15...BRINGING THE SYSTEM NEAR THE BAJA\r\nPENNISULA IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR PAUL\r\nTO GAIN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE\r\nAND WATERS COOL TO MARGINAL LEVELS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK. THESE\r\nFACTORS SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND...AND MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nSHOW PAUL LOSING STRENGTH ON ITS APPROACH TO BAJA. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODELS...AND IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL AIDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 14.0N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 14.1N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 14.9N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 16.4N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 18.2N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 23.0N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 26.5N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 28.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF PAUL IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED RATHER\r\nQUICKLY THIS EVENING.  A TIGHTLY CURVED AND COLD CONVECTIVE BAND ON\r\nTHE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS FURTHER INTENSIFIED. \r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE AT 45 KT...A CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBER OF 3.0...WHILE A 2215Z AMSU INTENSITY ANALYSIS\r\nFROM CIMSS WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 45\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/11...AS MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY WAS SOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS AS TO THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE\r\nSTORM.  PAUL IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  A DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH BY MONDAY DUE TO THE\r\nCOMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE RIDGE AND THE SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH.  THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO COME OVER OR\r\nNEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS.  BY DAY FIVE...THE\r\nWEAKENING REMNANT LOW OF PAUL IS PROJECTED TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE\r\nLOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MINUS THE HWRF MODEL.\r\n\r\nPAUL IS QUICKLY INTENSIFYING DUE TO THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF WARM\r\n28C WATERS...VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. \r\nTHESE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE\r\nBECOMING MORE HOSTILE.  BY TUESDAY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED SHEAR...SOMEWHAT COOLER SSTS...AND A MUCH\r\nDRIER ATMOSPHERE.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM\r\nAND SHIPS STATISTICAL MODELS AND THE GFDL DYNAMICAL MODEL...AND IT\r\nIS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT THE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SUGGESTS A 66% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 30 KT\r\nINTENSITY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE\r\nINNER CORE DEVELOPS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 14.2N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 14.6N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 15.8N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 17.7N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 24.6N 114.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 27.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER LAND\r\n120H  19/0000Z 29.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS A BIT\r\nMISLEADING. A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAS FORMED IN RECENT HOURS...AND A WELL-DEFINED CURVED\r\nBAND IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...MICROWAVE AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THERE\r\nREMAINS A CONSIDERABLE WESTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX....WITH THE LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATED BY 20-30 N MI. WHILE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 3.0 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES...THE 0526 UTC\r\nASCAT PASS ONLY SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THESE DATA.\r\n \r\nPAUL HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WESTERLY HEADING BUT AT A SLOWER FORWARD\r\nSPEED...AND THE LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nREACHING A REGION OF WEAK STEERING FLOW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN\r\nEND OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR\r\n26N 122W SHOULD APPROACH THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...\r\nCAUSING PAUL TO TURN ABRUPTLY NORTHWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. AFTER 96 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nWESTWARD AROUND THE CLOSED LOW...ASSUMING THAT IT MAINTAINS ITS\r\nVERTICAL INTEGRITY. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE OVERALL SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IS FAIRLY\r\nLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE EASTERLY SHEAR PLAGUING PAUL HAS APPARENTLY NOT SUBSIDED...EVEN\r\nTHOUGH SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST OTHERWISE.\r\nHOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. A\r\nSHARP INCREASE OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY IN 48-72 HOURS AS PAUL\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARING IT...AND STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST EVEN THOUGH SSTS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY BE\r\nDECREASING. BY 96 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER\r\nWATERS...AND COULD DECOUPLE ONCE THE SHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY\r\nHIGH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE LGEM AND INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS ICON AND IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 14.3N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CURVED BAND WITH\r\nVERY COLD CLOUD TOPS THAT ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE\r\nUNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n45 KT.\r\n \r\nVERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ANALYSES INDICATE THAT\r\nPAUL IS TITLED WESTWARD WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO MID-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS SHOW THE VORTEX\r\nBECOMING BETTER VERTICALLY ALIGNED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nGIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE...AND BECAUSE PAUL IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A MOIST\r\nENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM. BY LATE\r\nMONDAY...HOWEVER...SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO\r\nINCREASE AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER ALONG THE TRACK. THESE\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND PAUL IS NOW\r\nFORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE MAKING ITS TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.\r\nTHE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8. THE FEATURES THAT ARE\r\nSTEERING PAUL ARE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO. THESE SYSTEMS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...CAUSING PAUL TO TURN NORTHWARD BY TONIGHT AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. THE WEAKENING STORM IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...TRENDING TOWARD THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 14.8N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nPAUL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTIVE CLOUD BANDS HAVE GAINED\r\nCURVATURE...AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE HAS BEEN\r\nPERSISTING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 3.5/55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 3.5/55 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 50\r\nKT.  THIS INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nSATCON DATA FROM UW-CIMSS. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nPAUL REMAINS OVER WATERS THAT ARE RELATIVELY WARM AND IN A\r\nCONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  BY MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL MOVING INTO INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE LESS CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS\r\nCOMBINED WITH COOLER WATER ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK SHOULD CAUSE\r\nPAUL TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES NEAR THE THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. PAUL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nPAUL REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS CONTINUING TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TO\r\nTHE RIGHT. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/6. A NORTHWARD\r\nTO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES IN THE FLOW BETWEEN A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THE WEAKENING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE BAJA PENNISULA ON\r\nTUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT TURNS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.\r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.4N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.4N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 18.4N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 20.8N 114.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 26.5N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 29.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2012\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF PAUL HAS IMPROVED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE LAST FEW PASSES REVEALING A NEARLY CLOSED\r\nEYEWALL.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IN INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR QUITE AS WELL STRUCTURED...BUT DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB.  BASED\r\nON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  \r\n\r\nPAUL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-28C FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  GIVEN THE\r\nIMPROVED STRUCTURE...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THAT\r\nTIME.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A BIT MORE STRENGTHENING ON\r\nTHIS CYCLE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE...\r\nAND THE PEAK INTENSITY IS VERY CLOSE TO THAT SHOWN BY THE ICON\r\nCONSENSUS.  STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP\r\nIN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS...AND PAUL IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nQUICKLY AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  WITH\r\nTHE ADDED EFFECT OF COOLER SSTS...PAUL COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nBETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nPAUL IS ENTERING THE AREA BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO AND A DEVELOPING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE PAUL\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS TOWARD THE BAJA PENINSULA. \r\nAFTER THAT TIME...PAUL IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GETS\r\nFLUNG AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WOULD\r\nREMAIN OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...A NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF THE CYCLONE...WOULD\r\nLIKELY REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 15.8N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 17.2N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 19.6N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 22.1N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 24.2N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 27.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 29.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012\r\n \r\nPAUL IS ON A STRENGTHENING TREND. THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING CLOUD\r\nTOPS AS COLD AS -85C NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE\r\nTHAT INNER CORE OF PAUL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE\r\nEYEWALL WIDENING ON THE WEST SIDE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE\r\nT4.0/65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 65 KT...MAKING PAUL A CATEGORY ONE\r\nHURRICANE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WHILE THE\r\nHURRICANE IS OVER 26C TO 28C WATERS. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND THAT\r\nCOMBINED WITH STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO LOSE\r\nSTRENGTH. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT IN THE FLOW BETWEEN\r\nA RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW A FEW HUNDRED N\r\nMI WEST OF THE BAJA PENNISULA. THIS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nCAUSING PAUL TO ACCELERATE NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE WEAKENING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW. DISSIPATION IS NOW SHOWN BY DAY 4...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF\r\nTHE MODELS. THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND\r\nTHE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ABOUT 30 N MI IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST\r\nTRACK AS TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS ARE ABOUT 80 N MI AT 48 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 16.2N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 15 2012\r\n \r\nPAUL IS INTENSIFYING. THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE IS BECOMING\r\nAN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH VERY COLD\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES. AN EYE SEEN IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY EARLIER\r\nHAS BECOME INTERMITTENTLY VISIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO T4.5 FROM BOTH SATELLITE AGENCIES\r\nAT 1200 UTC...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 80\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nPAUL HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWARD\r\nOR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF A\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC LOW CUTTING OFF NEAR 23N 118W DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER 48 HOURS...PAUL SHOULD DECELERATE AND\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTARD AROUND THE CLOSED\r\nLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND\r\nHAS AGAIN SHIFTED FARTHER EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION BUT IS NOT QUITE AS FAR EAST AS THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH PAUL ARE ALREADY GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING...ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL AND EVEN COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN STEADY WEAKENING. THE WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AFTER 48\r\nHOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD DECOUPLE AT THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSIFICATION.\r\n  \r\nTHE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND\r\nRADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 17.3N 114.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012\r\n \r\nPAUL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TODAY.  THE ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND NOW CONSISTS OF A\r\nSYMMETRIC AND COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE EYE HAS ALSO\r\nWARMED CONSIDERABLY WHILE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE ABRUPTLY INCREASED\r\nTO 5.5 AND LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT CI VALUES ARE 6.1. BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105\r\nKT...MAKING PAUL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 015/11. PAUL SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nCYCLONICALLY AROUND A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY FORECAST\r\nTO CUT OFF TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND DRIFT\r\nNORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD CARRY PAUL\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEND NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...IT CONTINUES ITS TREND OF SHIFTING EASTWARD.  THE\r\nNEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE RAPID INTENSIFICATION EPISODE THAT PAUL HAS UNDERGONE TODAY\r\nSHOULD SOON COME TO A CLOSE.  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST OF PAUL IS FORECAST TO\r\nMARKEDLY INCREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE SLOWLY DECREASE.  GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS...BUT THE RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY AFTER 36 HOURS ONCE THE\r\nSHEAR BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY HIGH.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nINCREASED AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS BUT\r\nIS NEARLY UNCHANGED AFTER 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nTHE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...ALONG WITH THE FORECAST WIND\r\nRADII...REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION\r\nOF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND AN EXTENSION OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND WARNING. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 18.4N 114.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2012\r\n \r\nAFTER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING EARLIER TODAY...PAUL ALREADY APPEARS TO\r\nBE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.  INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE COLD RING\r\nSURROUNDING THE CENTER HAS WARMED...AND THE EYE HAS FILLED IN\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE\r\nUNANIMOUSLY T5.0/5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE FINAL-T NUMBERS\r\nFROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAVE FALLEN TO T5.3.  BASED ON THESE\r\nNUMBERS...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 95 KT.\r\n\r\nPAUL HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/15\r\nKT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nBEGINNING TO CLOSE OFF TO THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THE\r\nFLOW TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE IS CAUSING PAUL TO MOVE FASTER\r\nTOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE\r\nCOMPLETELY CUT OFF IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...LEAVING PAUL IN A COL REGION\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY DAYS 2 AND 3.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 24\r\nAND 48 HOURS...AND NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS NOW SHOW PAUL MAKING\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE HWRF IS THE\r\nOUTLIER AMONG THE PACK BY SHOWING PAUL MOVING INLAND ACROSS\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO...INSTEAD OF SHOWING THE CYCLONE MOVING BACK TO\r\nTHE WEST OVER THE PACIFIC.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS BUT IS NOT AS FAR EAST AS\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...WHICH IS BEING INFLUENCED BY THE HWRF.\r\n\r\nTHE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS PAUL OVER RELATIVELY\r\nWARM WATERS UP UNTIL LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING TO ABOUT 30 KT\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SHOULD TAKE A SIGNIFICANT TOLL ON THE\r\nHURRICANE.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY EXACTLY WHAT INTENSITY PAUL WILL\r\nHAVE WHEN IT REACHES THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST...BUT ENOUGH OF THE\r\nMODELS...PARTICULARLY THE SHIPS AND LGEM...SUGGEST THAT PAUL COULD\r\nSTILL BE A HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.  THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS\r\nPAUL MAKING LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE BUT THEN SHOWS RAPID\r\nWEAKENING ON DAYS 2 AND 3.  PAUL SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...OR\r\nCOMPLETELY DISSIPATED...BY 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 20.0N 113.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 22.2N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 24.8N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 26.7N 112.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 28.1N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 30.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE OF PAUL HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT IN RECENT\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE COOLED AND\r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED THIS CYCLE...AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 95 KT.\r\n \r\nPAUL IS MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...020/17...STEERED BY\r\nTHE FLOW TO THE EAST OF A SHARP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF\r\nTO THE WEST OF PAUL. AFTER THAT...A SLOWER NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nFORECAST AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE LOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nTAKES THE CENTER OF PAUL NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAJA\r\nPENNISULA LATER TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...ECMWF...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE VORTEX IS TILTED TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR. IN ADDITION...VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE HURRICANE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TILTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR PICKS UP. THIS INCREASE\r\nIN SHEAR...ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR...SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO\r\nWEAKEN SOME ON ITS APPROACH TO THE BAJA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...PAUL\r\nIS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER\r\nBAJA. AFTER INTERACTING WITH LAND...ABRUPT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nAND PAUL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IT LIES AT THE HIGH\r\nEND OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 21.9N 112.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 23.8N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 25.9N 112.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 27.3N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-10-16 12:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n500 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nTHIS IS SPECIAL ADVISORY TO UPDATE THE TRACK FORECAST FOR\r\nPAUL...WHICH IS MOVING FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. THIS MEANS THAT LANDFALL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR WITHIN THE\r\nWARNING AREA AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT\r\nLIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1200Z 22.9N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 25.8N 111.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 28.6N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 31.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL WAS MOVING TOWARD BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THAT PROMPTED AN\r\nSPECIAL ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT 17\r\nKNOTS. PAUL IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER MEXICO\r\nAND A CUTOFF LOW WEST OF PAUL. AS THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...\r\nPAUL SHOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE LOW AND\r\nDECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD KEEP A\r\nWEAKENING PAUL OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA FOR A DAY OR TWO. MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER VISIBLE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT IT IS HIDDEN UNDER THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nTHIS IS AN INDICATION THAT A WEAKENING PROCESS HAS ALREADY BEGUN.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS...AND ALTHOUGH\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...PAUL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A\r\nHURRICANE AND REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN\r\nAND COOL WATERS WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING...AND PAUL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW AFTERWARD. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 23.8N 112.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nSTRONG WIND SHEAR HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER PAUL...AND THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS RAPIDLY BECOMING SEPARATED FROM THE CONVECTION.\r\nGIVEN THE DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS. THESE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS\r\nARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nAND ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. WITH THE CURRENT SHEAR\r\nAND THE INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN...WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST...AND PAUL WILL PROBABLY BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS OR EARLIER.\r\n \r\nAFTER A RAPID MOTION TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING...PAUL HAS SLOWED\r\nDOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT ONLY 13\r\nKNOTS. THIS SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WAS ACTUALLY\r\nANTICIPATED BY MODELS AND INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. PAUL\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD...WITH AN\r\nADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AROUND A CUTOFF LOW LOCATED\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS TRACK WILL KEEP\r\nPAUL OR ITS REMANTS OVER OR NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE RAPID WEAKENING TREND...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY\r\nBE DISCONTINUED AND BE REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 24.7N 112.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 16 2012\r\n \r\nVERY LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS WITH PAUL...AND THE HEAVIEST\r\nRAINFALL ACTUALLY APPEARS TO BE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  HOWEVER...PAUL IS STILL PRODUCING SOME\r\nLOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CLOSER TO ITS CENTER.  THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nGROUND TRUTH TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF PAUL...AND DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES ARE SLOW TO COME DOWN DUE TO CONSTRAINTS.  GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 50 KT\r\nIS ESTIMATED BY ASSUMING A FAIRLY QUICK RATE OF DECAY.\r\n \r\nPAUL HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS MOVING PARALLEL TO THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WITH A MOTION OF 350/10 KT.  THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF A\r\nCUT-OFF LOW LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND PAUL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nCUT-OFF LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE NEW SUITE OF TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS THE CENTER OF PAUL JUST GRAZING THE COAST AND BARELY\r\nMOVING INLAND...IF AT ALL...SO THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AFFECTING PAUL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SO RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE\r\nDECAY SHOWN BY THE DSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND SHOWS PAUL WEAKENING\r\nBELOW TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH BETWEEN 12 AND 24 HOURS.  THE REMNANT\r\nLOW SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA BY 48 HOURS AS ADVERTISED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 25.6N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRIPPED AWAY DUE TO 30-35 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SHALLOW CONVECTION AND A ROBUST LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL VORTEX STILL EXISTS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN \r\nTHAT PAUL WAS NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST 24 HOURS AGO.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ADT DATA-T\r\nVALUES...AND MICROWAVE WIND DATA. WIND RADII IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE ARE BASED ON A 17/0427Z ASCAT PARTIAL OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATE OF 325/11 KT ARE BASED\r\nPRIMARILY ON RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO\r\nCHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. PAUL SHOULD\r\nMOVE NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...CROSSING THE BAJA\r\nSPUR IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AS THE WEAKENING\r\nTROPICAL STORM MOVES WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGER\r\nLOW-LATITUDE CYCLONE THAT IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 N MI SOUTHWEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA. BOTH PAUL AND THE LARGER CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nSHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH PAUL DISSIPATING OR\r\nBECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE NHC\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA...AND SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 24C SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PAUL COULD\r\nWEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND TOTALLY DISSIPATE IN\r\n24-36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND FOLLOWS THE WEAKENING TRENDS OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 26.4N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 27.5N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 28.6N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 29.8N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2012\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF PAUL SINCE ABOUT\r\n0200 UTC.  THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS WAS FROM AN OSCAT OVERPASS ABOUT 8 HOURS AGO...AND GIVEN THE\r\nLACK OF CONVECTION AND LAND INTERACTION SINCE THAT TIME IT IS\r\nESTIMATED THAT PAUL HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  A\r\nCOMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION SHOULD CAUSE PAUL TO\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THE LOW SHOULD\r\nDISSIPATE COMPLETELY IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A\r\nDEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF PAUL IS MOVING PARALLEL TO AND VERY NEAR THE COAST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 315/10.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES...AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 27.0N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 28.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 29.3N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 30.5N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Paul","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP162012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2012\r\n\r\nPAUL HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 18 HOURS...\r\nWITH ONLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING AT THIS\r\nTIME.  IN ADDITION...THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  BASED ON THESE FACTORS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT\r\nPAUL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW.  A RECENT SHIP REPORT AND\r\nASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT 25-30 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT SOUTH AND\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT. \r\nWHILE SOME WEAK CONVECTIVE BURSTS MAY OCCUR...PAUL GENERALLY SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WEAKEN...AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE IN 24-36\r\nHOURS AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO A TROUGH WEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/10...AND A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW DISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nPAUL.  FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE... UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 27.7N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 28.7N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 29.8N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2012-10-30 10:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n300 AM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED WELL\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED RATHER\r\nQUICKLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE T2.0 FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEPRESSION IS SITUATED IN AN AREA OF\r\nGENERALLY LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...BUT THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS\r\nARE ONLY EXPECTED TO LAST FOR 36 TO 48 HOURS BEFORE STRONGER\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SINK SOUTHWARD.  THE NHC FORECAST THEREFORE\r\nSHOWS MODEST STRENGTHENING...WHICH IS ACTUALLY MORE THAN IS\r\nINDICATED BY ANY OF THE INTENSITY MODELS.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS\r\nAND DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 295/7 KT.  LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHIS MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...ANOTHER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD FORCE IT TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nTHEN TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE GFS IS THE FASTEST\r\nOF THE TRACK GUIDANCE WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE SLOWEST...AND THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS PLACED BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND A LITTLE\r\nSOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1000Z 14.4N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 14.7N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 15.1N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 15.4N 119.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 15.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 14.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":2,"Date":"2012-10-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT STRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nALONG WITH INCREASED BANDING FEATURES.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES TO CONFIRM THIS\r\nAPPEARANCE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 35 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND THUS THAT IS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A LITTLE BIT OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO WHILE ROSA REMAINS WITHIN LIGHT WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGES INDICATE THAT HIGHER SHEAR IS NOT FAR AWAY WITH\r\nWESTERLY WINDS LOCATED ONLY A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER THESE STRONGER WINDS ON\r\nTHURSDAY...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE INITIALLY THEN BLENDED BACK TOWARD THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nAN UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nMOVE FAIRLY SLOWLY TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...ANOTHER RIDGE FORMS TO THE NORTHWEST OF A WEAKENING ROSA...\r\nWHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE GFS REMAINS\r\nON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH MOST OF THE\r\nOTHER AIDS BEING A BIT SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 14.5N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 14.8N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 15.1N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 15.4N 119.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 15.4N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 15.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 13.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":3,"Date":"2012-10-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012\r\n \r\nROSA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT WHILE\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE CENTER...A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nRESPECTIVELY...SO A BLEND OF 40 KT IS USED FOR THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF ROSA REMAINS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...A SIGN OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST ROSA WILL STAY JUST SOUTH OF A BAND OF STRONG SHEAR\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE INTENSITY MODELS NOW SHOW THE\r\nSTORM GETTING A LITTLE STRONGER BEFORE THE SHEAR ARRIVES...SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE DATA GIVE A MORE CERTAIN MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n280/5...A BIT SLOWER AND WEST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. A WEAK RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE STORM SLOWLY WESTWARD\r\nTHROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE TRACK FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY\r\nMORE UNCERTAIN AFTER THAT TIME...WITH DIFFERENCES IN BOTH THE DEPTH\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING\r\nAPPARENT. THE GFS MODEL HAS JOINED THE GFDL SOLUTION OF A DEEPER\r\nSTORM...WHICH FEELS THE EFFECT OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AND CAUSES\r\nROSA TO SLOW DOWN OR EVEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. SINCE THE\r\nGFS FORECAST MADE SUCH A LARGE CHANGE AND IS AT ODDS WITH ITS MORE\r\nWESTWARD ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY\r\nCLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND NEAR A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN. THE FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHEASTWARD BY A FAIR\r\nAMOUNT...BUT IS WELL WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 14.4N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 14.6N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 14.9N 118.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 15.0N 119.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 15.0N 119.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 14.5N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 13.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1800Z 13.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":4,"Date":"2012-10-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 30 2012\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ROSA HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS ARE\r\nSEEN IN A CDO-LIKE FEATURE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE BANDING ELSEWHERE. DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nREMAIN 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE VALUES. WESTERLY\r\nFLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF ROSA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCING THE OUTFLOW\r\nIN THAT SEMICIRCLE...BUT THE SHEAR IS DISPLACING THE CONVECTION\r\nEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS AND THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW WESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nWHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONLY LIMITED STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM. AFTER 24 HOURS...A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO\r\nWEAKENING AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. \r\n \r\nA 2231 UTC AMSU PASS SHOWED THAT ROSA IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF EARLIER ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n275/04. ROSA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE....WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEN...AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES INTO\r\nTHE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERGENT. THE ECMWF...UKMET...\r\nAND NOGAPS SHOW A WEAKENING ROSA TURNING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BY DAY\r\n4. ALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS AND GFDL SHOW A DEEPER REPRESENTATION OF\r\nROSA TURNING NORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IN RESPONSE TO A MID-\r\nLEVEL CUTOFF LOW THAT FORMS OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\nGIVEN THAT ROSA IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE\r\nFOR MUCH STRENGTHENING...THE GFS/GFDL SEENARIO SEEMS A LITTLE\r\nLESS LIKELY...ALTHOUGH THIS SOLUTION NOW HAS THE SUPPORT OF A FEW\r\nOF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. GIVEN THAT THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOW VERY LITTLE MOTION AT\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN\r\nCONSIDERABLY...BUT STILL SHOWS A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO\r\nPROVIDE SOME CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FURTHER\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IN THE NEXT CYCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0300Z 14.5N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 14.6N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 14.7N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 14.8N 118.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 14.9N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 14.2N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/0000Z 14.0N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":5,"Date":"2012-10-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2012\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nOF ROSA IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STEADY FROM 6 HOURS\r\nAGO...AND A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AT 0434 UTC REVEALED A BAND OF 35-40\r\nKT WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  ROSA APPEARS TO HAVE 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nBEFORE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SAG SOUTHWARD CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THAT PERIOD...BUT THE NHC FORECAST LEAVES OPEN\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY THAT ROSA COULD GET JUST A BIT STRONGER LATER\r\nTODAY.  EVEN THOUGH THE STORM WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nSHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nROSA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD...OR 275/4 KT.  A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 130W APPEARS TO BE IMPEDING THE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION OF ROSA...AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...THE ANTICYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MIGRATE NORTHWESTWARD WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS JUST WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS EVOLVING\r\nPATTERN SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO DRIFT WESTWARD OR BE NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nOVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE OUTLIER SOLUTION\r\nBY SHOWING A STRONGER ROSA GETTING PICKED UP BY THE CUTOFF LOW AND\r\nMOVING NORTHEASTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...\r\nA BULK OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE SLOW WESTWARD MOTION\r\nSHOWN BY THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS.  PERHAPS IN CELEBRATION OF\r\nHALLOWEEN...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS IN THE SHAPE OF A\r\nSQUASHED SPIDER...WHICH IS NORMALLY INDICATIVE OF VERY LITTLE\r\nMOTION.  AS WAS FORESHADOWED IN THE 8 PM PDT DISCUSSION...AN\r\nEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nMADE...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL\r\nAND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 14.5N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 14.6N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 14.7N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 14.7N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 14.7N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 14.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 14.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/0600Z 15.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":6,"Date":"2012-10-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE NEAR THE CENTER OF ROSA\r\nWITH A BIT MORE CURVATURE SEEN IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN. AN\r\nOSCAT PASS FROM OVERNIGHT SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS MORE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION...WHICH SUGGESTS THE STORM IS\r\nPROBABLY A LITTLE STRONGER. THE WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT...\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE MOST RECENT SAB SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION. ROSA\r\nHAS ABOUT 24 HOURS BEFORE WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO HALT ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A STEADY WEAKENING AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE TREND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST INTENSITY CONSENSUS AID.\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nROSA APPEARS TO BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WESTWARD...OR 275/3. THE STORM\r\nIS WITHIN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LIGHT STEERING DUE TO A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 130W AND A FLAT TROUGH OVER MEXICO. LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE NHC FORECAST WILL JUST CONTINUE THE\r\nSLOW WESTWARD MOTION. IN THE LONG RANGE...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nTO FORM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND DROP\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD WHILE THE ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS. THERE CONTINUE TO BE\r\nLARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE TIMING OF THIS LOW...WITH\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TOTALLY AT ODDS WITH THE FORECAST MOTION BEYOND A\r\nDAY OR TWO. THE GFS MODEL HAS A MUCH STRONGER LOW THAN MOST OF THE\r\nOTHER GUIDANCE...AND CONSEQUENTLY TURNS ROSA TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD\r\nOF THE LOW. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE GFS\r\nDETERMINISTIC FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT OF AN OUTLIER...WITH THE MAJORITY\r\nOF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CLOSER TO THE MORE WESTWARD ECMWF OR HWRF\r\nMODEL SOLUTIONS. GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION...REMAINING WEST OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 14.5N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 14.6N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 14.7N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 14.7N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 14.6N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 14.4N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 14.5N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1200Z 15.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":7,"Date":"2012-10-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nROSA REMAINS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...WITH A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40\r\nKT. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT. WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE TOMORROW...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING. THIS SCENARIO HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED BY\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE AND REGIONAL GUIDANCE...AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSTILL SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF ROSA IS ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 260/3...WITH THE\r\nASCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE DATA SHOWING PRETTY CLEARLY THAT THE\r\nSTORM HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT SOUTH OF WEST TODAY. THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS CAUGHT WITHIN LIGHT STEERING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH LOCATED NEAR 130W AND FLAT TROUGHING NORTH OF ROSA. OTHER THAN\r\nACCOUNTING FOR A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK OF ROSA IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THIS CYCLE IS EERILY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A HUGE DISPARITY BETWEEN THE BEST PERFORMING\r\nMODELS. THE KEY TO THE FORECAST COULD LIE IN THE EVOLUTION OF A\r\nSIGNIFICANT CUTOFF LOW THAT IS PREDICTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TO\r\nFORM WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A FEW DAYS. THE MODELS THAT FORM A\r\nSTRONGER LOW FASTER...SUCH AS THE GFS/GFDL/HWRF...SHOW ROSA TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH BEYOND DAY 3 AS IT GETS CAUGHT BY THE TROUGH.\r\nHOWEVER...ANOTHER CAMP OF MODELS...INCLUDING THE ECMWF/UKMET/GEFS\r\nMEAN AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...SHOW A SLOWER AND MORE POSITIVELY\r\nTILTED TROUGH...WHICH CAUSES ROSA TO SHEAR OUT SOONER AND CONTINUE\r\nMOVING WESTWARD. THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT THE\r\nWESTWARD MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO\r\nLEAN IN THAT DIRECTION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 14.2N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 14.3N 118.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 14.3N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 14.2N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 14.0N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 13.8N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 14.5N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1800Z 15.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":8,"Date":"2012-11-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 31 2012\r\n\r\nA 0145Z SSMIS PASS SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF ROSA IS STILL DISPLACED\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION BY ABOUT 10 KNOTS OF WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR. HOWEVER...CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 3.5/55\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND 3.0/45 KT FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT. ROSA SHOULD BE PEAKING IN\r\nINTENSITY SOON AS THE SHEAR ALREADY APPEARS TO BE RESTRICTING\r\nOUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASING TO OVER 20 KT BY 12 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING. DECAY TO REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST BY 96\r\nHOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES EVEN MORE LATE IN THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/02. A SLOW WESTWARD OR WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS\r\nROSA IS SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE WEST AND A BROAD\r\nFLAT TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS QUITE LARGE AFTER THAT TIME. THE GFS AND HWRF SHOW ROSA\r\nMOVING EASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD AS THE CYCLONE COMES\r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL LOW THAT FORMS WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE ECMWF\r\nSHOWS A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS ROSA INTERACTS WITH\r\nA WEAKER POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH...ENDING UP ABOUT 500 MILES\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE GFS AT DAY 5. GIVEN THAT THE GFS/HWRF SOLUTION\r\nSTILL APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED TO THE GEFS AND ECMWF\r\nENSEMBLE MEMBERS...THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE MORE\r\nWESTWARD SOLUTION. THE NEW NHC TRACK LIES ROUGHLY BETWEEN...BUT IS\r\nA BIT SLOWER THAN...A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS LOWER THAN NORMAL LATE IN THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 14.1N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 14.1N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 14.1N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 14.0N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 13.9N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 14.0N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0000Z 16.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":9,"Date":"2012-11-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2012\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF ROSA HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN UNCHANGED FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE LAST 24 HOURS AS MICROWAVE IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM TAFB\r\nWHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS BETWEEN 50 AND 55 KT.  THE\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT BASED ON THESE DATA.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE SHIFT IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH\r\nIN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS IT IS NOT VERY SIGNIFICANT SINCE ROSA\r\nIS NOT EXPECTED TO GET VERY FAR DURING NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE CURRENT\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/2 KT.  ROSA IS LOCATED IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nREGIME AT THE MOMENT...BUT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH A MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST WILL EXERT JUST ENOUGH INFLUENCE TO CAUSE\r\nROSA TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BY DAY\r\n3...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OR CUTOFF\r\nLOW WILL DEVELOP JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND THAT\r\nFEATURE SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND\r\nMOVE A LITTLE FASTER BY DAY 5.  THE DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO\r\nBE THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIER...BUT ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ABOUT 3/4 OF\r\nTHE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE PACK.  THE UPDATED\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST THEREFORE STILL FAVORS A MORE WESTERN\r\nSOLUTION...AND IT ENDS UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE ECMWF AND TVCE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nWITH THE SOUTHWARD MOTION FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...ROSA MAY BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO\r\nITS NORTH FOR A LITTLE WHILE LONGER.  THE INTENSITY MODELS APPEAR\r\nTO BE RESPONDING TO THIS AND ARE UNANIMOUS IN WEAKENING ROSA AT A\r\nSLOWER RATE DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BE\r\nUNAVOIDABLE AFTER 48 HOURS...AND ROSA IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY DAY 3 AND A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 14.1N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 14.0N 118.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 13.9N 118.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 13.5N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 13.4N 118.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 14.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 15.0N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0600Z 17.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":10,"Date":"2012-11-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2012\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ROSA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS\r\nORGANIZED WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED...WITH THE CENTER REMAINING ON\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 35 TO 55 KT...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE BROUGHT DOWN SLIGHTLY\r\nTO 45 KT. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY. THE STORM COULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER 48H DUE\r\nTO STRONG WIND SHEAR...AS LONG AS IT DOES NOT END UP FARTHER SOUTH\r\nTHAN FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL NHC PREDICTION CALLS FOR BASICALLY THE\r\nSAME GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS STILL MORE LIKELY THAN NOT\r\nIN ABOUT 72H DUE TO STRONG SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR LIKE THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO\r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE CONSISTENT ON\r\nTHE STORM DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 36H OR\r\nSO DUE TO NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL STEERING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE\r\nWESTERN PART OF THE BASIN. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nA VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CUTOFF LOW TO THE\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHICH INFLUENCES HOW QUICKLY ROSA TURNS\r\nTO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW. THERE HAVE BEEN NO\r\nNOTABLE SHIFTS IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THE LONGER RANGES...SO\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 13.9N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 13.8N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 13.6N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 13.5N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 14.2N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 15.5N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z 17.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":11,"Date":"2012-11-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE WITH ROSA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH\r\nPERHAPS A LITTLE MORE OF THE OVERALL CIRCULATION APPARENT IN THE\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS...AND THIS VALUE REMAINS THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED. SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A BIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUS\r\nFORECASTS...ROSA HAS TEMPORARILY MISSED THE STRONGEST SHEAR.\r\nHOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A LARGE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH WILL GREATLY INCREASE THE SHEAR IN ABOUT 48H AND CAUSE\r\nROSA TO TRANSITION INTO A REMNANT LOW IN AROUND 3 DAYS. THUS THE\r\nNHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...A LITTLE BELOW\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT ROSA HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTODAY...AND MAYBE EVEN SOUTHWARD RECENTLY. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD\r\nREMAIN QUITE WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND LITTLE NET MOTION\r\nWILL LIKELY OCCUR. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AS A CUTOFF LOW FORMS TO THE WEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKE LOOKING AT A BROKEN RECORD\r\nSINCE YESTERDAY...WITH MOSTLY THE SAME GFS-BASED GUIDANCE ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE...AND THE GEFS/ECMWF/UKMET/HWRF ON\r\nTHE LEFT SIDE. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...THE HFIP\r\nCONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE ARE NOW IN CLOSER\r\nAGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THESE\r\nAIDS...RESULTING IN ONLY SMALL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 13.5N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 13.3N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 13.1N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 13.1N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 13.3N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 14.1N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 15.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":12,"Date":"2012-11-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2012\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH ROSA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nMICROWAVE AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS STILL LOCATED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE\r\nTO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST...AS ROSA SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE THE SHEAR INCREASES DUE TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY...AND LITTLE NET MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS ROSA IS SITUATED EAST OF A\r\nWEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND SOUTH OF A FLAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING AS A MID-LEVEL LOW FORMS WEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA AND RETROGRADES TO THE NORTH OF ROSA. WHILE THERE IS\r\nSTILL SOME LATERAL SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THE SPREAD HAS\r\nDECREASED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW CYCLES. SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE NHC TRACK. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS\r\nAT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 13.7N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 13.6N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 13.5N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 13.5N 118.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 13.7N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 14.9N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 16.7N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z 19.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":13,"Date":"2012-11-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012\r\n \r\nBASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0533 UTC...ROSA IS ONLY PRODUCING\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN ITS NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND HAS\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 40 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT\r\nSTRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ARE CUTTING INTO THE CYCLONE\r\nBELOW THE CIRRUS LAYER...AND THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE ABOUT 20 KT.  WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL ONLY INCREASE\r\nFROM THIS POINT FORWARD AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES WEST OF\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA...AND ROSA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENING.  THERE IS STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG THE INTENSITY AND\r\nGLOBAL MODELS THAT ROSA WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS\r\nAND THEN DISSIPATE BY DAY 5.\r\n\r\nROSA HAS BEEN MEANDERING LATELY...BUT THE ASCAT CENTER FIX SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION IS A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT.  A WEAK\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 21N SHOULD NUDGE ROSA SOUTHWESTWARD AND\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO\r\nBREAK DOWN BY DAY 3 AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH DEEPENS WEST\r\nOF THE BAJA PENINSULA...AND ROSA SHOULD RESPOND BY GRADUALLY\r\nTURNING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME ACCELERATION.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE\r\nTRACK MODELS HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD ON THIS\r\nCYCLE.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS MODEL AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 13.3N 118.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 13.1N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 13.0N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 13.0N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 13.2N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 14.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 15.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":14,"Date":"2012-11-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012\r\n \r\nROSA IS SLOWLY LOSING THE BATTLE WITH SHEAR. SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS DISORGANIZED...WITH\r\nOCCASIONAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DECREASING...AND THE WIND\r\nSPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN THE STORM. THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE\r\nNHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SUGGEST THE STORM CONTINUES TO DRIFT\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD. FINALLY...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE REASONABLY CLOSE ON\r\nTHE FUTURE COURSE OF ROSA...WITH A SLOW SOUTHWEST TO WEST TRACK\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD PATH.\r\nONLY THE GFDL AND HWRF ARE OUTLIERS NOW...BUT THOSE MODELS ARE\r\nPROBABLY TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST GIVEN THEIR LONG-TERM BIASES IN\r\nTHAT DIRECTION. THE NEW FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...GENERALLY WITH A SMALL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT AT MOST FORECAST\r\nPOINTS...AND LIES A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 13.2N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 13.0N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 13.0N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 13.1N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 13.4N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 14.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 16.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":15,"Date":"2012-11-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ROSA HAS BECOME EXPOSED THIS AFTERNOON...AN INDICATION\r\nTHAT MODERATE-TO-STRONG SHEAR IS BECOMING DETRIMENTAL TO THE\r\nCYCLONE.  HOWEVER...ASCAT DATA FROM 1805 UTC DID SHOW QUITE A FEW\r\nWIND VECTORS OF 35 KT OR GREATER...SUGGESTING PEAK WINDS OF 40 KT. \r\nTHE LATTER VALUE WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  WITH\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL MODELS...ROSA WILL\r\nLIKELY WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON SATURDAY...AND TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...A BIT BELOW THE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nASCAT AND WINDSAT DATA SHOW THAT ROSA HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER\r\nTO THE SOUTHWEST...235/3.   LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE STORM SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nAND NORTHWEST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nAS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nNOTICEABLY SHIFTED WESTWARD SINCE 6H AGO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL FOLLOW THAT TREND...STAYING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 12.7N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 12.6N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 12.6N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 12.8N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 13.1N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 14.0N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 15.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":16,"Date":"2012-11-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 PM PDT FRI NOV 02 2012\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ROSA BECAME COMPLETELY EXPOSED TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS EARLIER TODAY...AND CONVECTION HAD BEEN\r\nDECREASING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. A NEW AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...HOWEVER...DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AROUND 0000 UTC...AND IT HAS BEEN EXPANDING RECENTLY.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL WINDS COMBINED WITH DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR THAT IS\r\nNEARING THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE ROSA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nCALLS FOR ROSA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARD THE WEST...LIKELY\r\nDUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF\r\nROSA. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODELS IS QUITE LARGE WITH THE GFS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS SHOWING THE STORM TURNING NORTHWARD SOON...WHILE\r\nTHE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THOSE SCENARIOS AND IS\r\nNUDGED TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE\r\nTO THE SOUTH OR LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 12.7N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 12.7N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 12.8N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 13.1N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 13.5N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 14.5N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 15.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":17,"Date":"2012-11-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ROSA MAINTAINING A SHEARED\r\nSCENE TYPE THIS MORNING...WITH A SMALL AREA OF -80C OVERSHOOTING\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE PARTLY EXPOSED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.\r\nALTHOUGH THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.5/35 KT\r\nFROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN THE SAME\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...40 KT...DUE TO LITTLE OR NO CHANGE IN\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN FROM 6 HOURS AGO. UW-CIMSS SHEAR PRODUCT AND\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW ROSA MOVING IN AN UNFORGIVING ENVIRONMENT\r\nCONSISTING OF 30-40 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND AN INTRUDING\r\nDRY/STABLE MARINE-LAYER AIR MASS. THESE TWO INHIBITING\r\nCONTRIBUTIONS SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ROSA INTO A DEPRESSION WITHIN\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND ULTIMATELY TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW\r\nIN 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALSO REFLECTS\r\nDISSIPATION BY DAY 4 WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A PERSISTENT 260/4...OR TOWARD THE\r\nWEST. A LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC NARROW RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS\r\nSTEERING THE CYCLONE ON ITS CURRENT HEADING. A MAJORITY OF\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT ROSA WILL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN\r\nAMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE GUIDANCE SPREAD...UNFORTUNATELY...REMAINS QUITE LARGE.\r\nTHE UKMET IS SHOWING A FLATTER TRACK...A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION WITH TIME...WHILE THE GFS IS TO THE FAR\r\nRIGHT OF THE MODEL CLUSTER AND INDICATES A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH IN 12 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST RESEMBLES THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS\r\nESSENTIALLY BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED OUTLIERS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 12.6N 119.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 12.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 12.8N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 13.1N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 13.5N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rosa","Adv":18,"Date":"2012-11-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ROSA HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nCIRRUS DEBRIS CLOUDS...THE REMNANTS OF A FORMER CONVECTIVE BURST.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS REDUCED TO 35 KT...IN LINE WITH THE\r\nRECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  ROSA WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLUDGEONED BY\r\nSTRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nAND A TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LATEST NHC\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE LOWER\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND THE HIGHER INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nROSA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT ABOUT 4 KT.  LOW-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME\r\nWOBBLES IN THE TRACK DUE TO HOW MUCH CONVECTION ROSA IS PRODUCING\r\nBECAUSE OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...WITH MORE A\r\nNORTHWARD WOBBLE OF ROSA LIKELY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE AND A\r\nMORE SOUTHWARD DEVIATION WHEN THE CENTER IS EXPOSED.  OVERALL...THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS SHIFTING WESTWARD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED FOLLOWING THAT TREND. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 12.7N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 12.8N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 13.0N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 13.3N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 13.7N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 14.3N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":19,"Date":"2012-11-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012\r\n \r\nTHE END APPEARS TO BE NEAR FOR ROSA.  THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SWIRL\r\nOF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT CONTINUE\r\nTO BE SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLY WINDS.   A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF ROSA SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...SO\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 12\r\nHOURS...OR LESS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE GENEROUS\r\nAS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION IN ONLY\r\n24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nROSA HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/3.  MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS\r\nFOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS TO THE LEFT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE FAIRLY SOON.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nFORECAST...AND NOT FAR FROM THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 12.7N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 12.9N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 13.2N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 13.6N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 13.8N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 14.6N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":20,"Date":"2012-11-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n800 PM PDT SAT NOV 03 2012\r\n\r\nROSA IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE IS A\r\nTIGHT SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS. IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN\r\nSOON...ROSA WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT\r\n12 HOURS. EVEN IF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE\r\nQUICKLY SHEARED OFF DUE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nAND SHOWS A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT STEERED BY \r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INSIST THAT ROSA...OR\r\nITS REMNANT LOW...WILL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE HAD A NORTHWARD AND\r\nSLOW BIAS...AND SINCE ROSA IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 12.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 12.9N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 13.2N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 13.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 13.9N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":21,"Date":"2012-11-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n200 AM PDT SUN NOV 04 2012\r\n \r\nROSA STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BASED ON\r\nCONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 04/0452 UTC\r\nASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 KT IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE\r\nEXPANDED OUTWARD TO ABOUT 60 NMI. HOWEVER...SINCE THE ASCAT PASS...\r\nA CURVED BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...AND A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALSO\r\nDEVELOPED OVER AND JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THE\r\nRECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT ROSA IS HEADING\r\nINTO THE NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AS A 25-KT TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY WESTWARD...OR 270/03 KT. ROSA\r\nMADE A SLIGHT SOUTHWESTWARD JOG SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nTHIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPORARY. A WESTWARD OR EVEN A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME AND CONTINUE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE AND ITS REMNANTS ARE STEERED\r\nBY WEAK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK TRACK...AND\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES ROSA IS MOVING WESTWARD INTO STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES IN\r\nEXCESS OF 40 KT...AND ALSO INTO AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS.\r\nOTHER THAN BRIEF BURSTS OF MODERATE CONVECTION...THESE UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN ROSA DEGENERATING INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DISSIPATION\r\nEXPECTED BY 72 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 12.5N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 12.6N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 12.8N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 13.0N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 13.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rosa","Adv":22,"Date":"2012-11-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n700 AM PST SUN NOV 04 2012\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF ROSA OF THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...THIS RECENT\r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY AS STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHOVE THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY\r\nRAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  DVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB\r\nAND A RECENT ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN\r\nAROUND 25 KT.  THE STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A FAIRLY QUICK DEMISE OF ROSA.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nROSA APPEARS TO HAVE DRIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD RESUME A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...AND THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION.  THE UPDATED TRACK\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF\r\nMODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 12.5N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 12.6N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 12.9N 121.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 13.0N 122.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 13.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Rosa","Adv":23,"Date":"2012-11-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP172012","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172012\r\n100 PM PST SUN NOV 04 2012\r\n \r\nROSA HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME...AND\r\nTHE SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING HAS\r\nSINCE DISSIPATED.  THE SYSTEM IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND NO\r\nLONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BASED ON THIS...ROSA IS\r\nDECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM.  A 1724 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE\r\nAROUND 25 KT.  THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS.\r\n \r\nROSA HAS NOT MOVED VERY MUCH TODAY.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 12.6N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 12.9N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 13.2N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 13.4N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 13.5N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-06-05 22:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n600 PM EDT WED JUN 05 2013\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nLARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS\r\nFOUND A CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nLARGE MASS OF THUNDERSTORMS.  THIS CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE FORMED\r\nVERY RECENTLY SO THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT MEASURED AN EXTRAPOLATED SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1002\r\nMB...PEAK 1000 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 47 KT...AND BELIEVABLE\r\nBIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT.  THESE DATA\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH...EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nANDREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT...THEN\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHEY ALSO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF JUMPS OR REFORMATIONS OF THE\r\nCENTER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF THE\r\nFLORIDA BIG BEND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING IS EXPECTED.\r\nAFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  THERE WILL BE SOME\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING BY THAT TIME...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR WHEN ANDREA\r\nWILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL.  THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ANDREA REMAINING\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT THE TRANSITION TO A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST. THE\r\nPRIMARY EFFECTS FROM ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG\r\nPORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE\r\nTONIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nTHE PRONUNCIATION OF THIS NAME IS ANN- DREE UH.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2200Z 25.3N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 26.5N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 28.3N  85.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 31.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 34.5N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 43.0N  67.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 45.0N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1800Z 47.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-06-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUN 05 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRUCTURE OF ANDREA HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS DISPLACED IN BANDS AND CLUSTERS WELL TO THE EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO APPROXIMATELY 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 1002 MB IS SUPPORED BY A RECENT OBSERVATION OF 1003 MB WITH 20\r\nKT OF WIND FROM NOAA BUOY 42003. ANOTHER AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE SAMPLING ANDREA OVERNIGHT AND\r\nPROVIDE INFORMATION ON THE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. \r\n\r\nWHILE ANDREA WILL REMAIN IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BAROCLINIC FORCING AHEAD OF AN UPPER-\r\nTROUGH WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS\r\nFORCING SHOULD RESULT IN SOME DEEPENING FROM A PRESSURE\r\nSTANDPOINT...BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PEAK WINDS IS EXPECTED BEFORE\r\nOR AFTER ANDREA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 010/05...GIVEN THE\r\nRELATIVELY RECENT REFORMATION OF THE CURRENT CENTER EARLIER TODAY. \r\nA GRADUAL ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nWHILE OVERALL THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...THERE REMAIN SOME SIZEABLE DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nIN PARTICULAR...THE GFS REMAINS QUITE FAST AND SHOWS A SOMEWHAT\r\nDISCONTINUOUS TRACK OF THE LOW COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF\r\nAND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD. \r\n  \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE\r\nPRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY\r\nACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 26.0N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 27.3N  85.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 29.6N  83.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 33.0N  80.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 37.5N  75.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 44.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 44.5N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0000Z 47.5N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-06-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUN 06 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS STRONGER. THE PLANE REPORTED\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 63 KNOTS AT 5000 FEET AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR\r\nWINDS OF 49 KNOTS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. THE CENTRAL PRESSURES\r\nREPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WERE 997 MB FROM A DROP AND 996 MB\r\nEXTRAPOLATED. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KNOTS. WE MUST EMPHASIZE THAT THESE STRONG WINDS\r\nARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nANDREA IS PROBABLY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE STRONG SHEAR SHOULD\r\nHALT ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. ANDREA WILL \r\nINTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO AFFECT THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES. \r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. GIVEN THE FORECAST\r\nSTEERING PATTERN PROVIDED BY GLOBAL MODELS...ANDREA SHOULD SOON\r\nBEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE FASTER GFS\r\nMODELS.  \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE\r\nPRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 27.0N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 32.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 36.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 39.0N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 46.5N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0600Z 52.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-06-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUN 06 2013\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ANDREA HAS BEEN IMPROVING\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF CIRCULATION HAVE BEEN WARMING.  THE STRONGEST CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nLOCATED IN A BAND THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA\r\nAT THIS TIME...AND THE TAMPA WSR-88D HAS BEEN SHOWING 65-70 KT AT\r\nABOUT 6500 FT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 50 KT\r\nPENDING THE NEXT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION THIS AFTERNOON.\r\n \r\nANDREA HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AND IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/13 KT.  THE STORM IS LOCATED JUST TO THE\r\nEAST OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND IT IS GETTING\r\nCLOSER TO FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW LOCATED OVER THE TENNESSEE\r\nVALLEY.  THIS FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANDREA TO RACE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...AND ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA...THERE IS\r\nNO STRONG EVIDENCE THAT ANDREA WILL STRENGTHEN MUCH BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES THE COAST LATER TODAY.  AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...\r\nSOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...BUT MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATE THAT ANDREA WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL-STORM INTENSITY THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE.  THE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS DO NOT SHOW\r\nSTRONG BAROCLINICITY UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THE FSU PHASE-SPACE\r\nDIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GFS SUGGEST THAT THE TRANSITION COULD BE\r\nCOMPLETE BY 36 HOURS.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL KEEP\r\nANDREA AS TROPICAL UNTIL 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE\r\nTROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.  OUR CURRENT\r\nINTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA\r\nPENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE\r\nPRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 28.2N  84.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 30.3N  82.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 33.4N  80.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 37.3N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 41.8N  70.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 46.5N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 47.0N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1200Z 52.0N  20.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-06-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ANDREA IS NOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND\r\nREGION.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY\r\nSINCE THIS MORNING...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nFOUND AN INNER WIND CORE...WITH SFMR SURFACE WIND ESTIMATES OF 55\r\nKT ABOUT 20 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER AND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 71 KT.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 993 MB.  ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT THERE WAS A SHOALING CONTRIBUTION TO THE SFMR\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.  NO ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/15.  ANDREA SHOULD ACCELERATE INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND MOVE QUICKLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE U. S. EAST COAST AND NEAR THE CANADIAN\r\nMARITIMES.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nEASTWARD AND MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC...WITH THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL DISSIPATION.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND SPEED...THERE IS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD ONE.\r\n \r\nANDREA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT MOVES OVER AND\r\nNEAR THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS AN EXTRATROPICAL GALE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION AROUND 120 HOURS.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE\r\nCONVECTION COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS\r\nCOMPLETE...WHICH COULD CAUSE ANDREA TO HAVE A POST-TROPICAL PHASE\r\nBEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL/EXTRATOPICAL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO\r\nEXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST.\r\nOUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM\r\nTHE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY\r\nLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANDREA...THE\r\nPRIMARY EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST\r\nCOAST OF FLORIDA...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES TONIGHT FROM THE FLORIDA\r\nPENINSULA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF GEORGIA...SOUTH\r\nCAROLINA...AND NORTH CAROLINA.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 29.5N  83.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR COAST\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 31.9N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 35.6N  78.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 39.8N  73.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 43.8N  67.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 46.6N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 46.0N  29.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-06-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUN 06 2013\r\n \r\nANDREA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE MOVING INLAND EARLIER THIS\r\nEVENING. THE ONLY REPORT OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ON LAND OR\r\nOVER WATER HAS COME FROM A SHIP OBSERVATION EAST OF SAINT\r\nAUGUSTINE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT.\r\nANY WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN RANBANDS OFFSHORE TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ANDREA BEARS\r\nLITTLE RESEMBLANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A PRONOUNCED DRY\r\nINTRUSION NOTED OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IN A BAND WELL REMOVED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. GIVEN\r\nTHAT ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nINTERACTION WITH BAROCLINIC FEATURES WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME THE\r\nMECHANISM SUPPORTING THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS\r\nANDREA IS ABSORBED BY A LIFTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE NEW NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS THINKING...AND SHOWS\r\nANDREA BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR SOONER IF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DOES NOT IMPROVE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/13...AS THE CENTER SLOWED A LITTLE WHILE\r\nMOVING ONSHORE. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT SHOWING THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND THEN TURNING\r\nQUICKLY EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE NEW NHC FORECST IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS DUE\r\nTO THE INITIAL MOTION AND IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE AFTERWARD. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF AND ALSO LIES NEAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS\r\nANY FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT\r\nANY HAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD\r\nTO NEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\r\nWARNING PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 30.3N  82.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 33.0N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 36.8N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 41.0N  70.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 44.7N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 45.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 45.5N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-06-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013\r\n \r\nANDREA IS RAPIDLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MOST OF THE RAIN\r\nIS NOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE IS AN\r\nINTRUSION OF DRY AIR BETWEEN THE CENTER AND A CONVECTIVE BAND TO\r\nTHE EAST. BUOY AND RADAR DATA STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 40 KNOTS....BUT THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. ANDREA IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES AND THE TRANSFORMATION PROCESS INTO A POST-\r\nTROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TODAY.\r\n \r\nANDREA HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 23 KNOTS EMBEDDED IN THE FAST FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS AND TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE FURTHER AS IT MOVES\r\nALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN TURN TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER\r\nTHE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS\r\nSOLUTION. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR SO.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL THIS\r\nMORNING...AND THAT THE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...WE DO NOT EXPECT TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL WARNINGS ANY\r\nFARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST. OUR CURRENT INTENTION IS THAT ANY\r\nHAZARDOUS WIND CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO\r\nNEW ENGLAND WOULD BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE\r\nWARNING PRODUCTS.\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 32.4N  80.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 35.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 39.5N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 43.5N  67.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 46.5N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andrea","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-06-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013\r\n \r\nANDREA CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...BUT IT IS NOT\r\nYET FRONTAL AND SOME CONVECTION IS STILL FORMING NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED\r\nBY A RECENT SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 KT AT THE OCEAN CREST PIER ON OAK\r\nISLAND NORTH CAROLINA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IT IS STILL ASSUMED THAT\r\nANDREA WILL BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL\r\nFORM AND BECOME THE DOMINANT SYSTEM NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND...AND ANDREA\r\nSHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THIS LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nACCELERATION CONTINUES...AND ANDREA HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 035/24\r\nKT.  THERE IS NOT MUCH SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...HOWEVER\r\nTHE ENTIRE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST\r\nAND NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN SHIFTED\r\nWESTWARD...AND THIS SCENARIO KEEPS THE CENTER OF ANDREA...AND\r\nPOTENTIALLY SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS...CLOSER TO THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO\r\nNEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE HANDLED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 34.4N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 37.5N  76.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 41.8N  70.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 45.3N  63.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 46.8N  54.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Andrea","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-06-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT ANDREA IS\r\nNO LONGER TROPICAL.  DEEP CONVECTION OVER NORTH CAROLINA\r\nAPPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAN THE\r\nCYCLONE ITSELF...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEGUN TO LOSE\r\nDEFINITION.  HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS BEING DECLARED\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...ADVISORIES FROM NHC WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nNO LONGER POSES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE U.S. EAST COAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A\r\nPARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 1448 UTC. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE\r\nPRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COASTAL AREAS OF\r\nNORTH CAROLINA AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ANDREA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH AS IT\r\nMOVES UP THE U.S. EAST COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nSHOWING ANDREA BEING STRETCHED OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 24-48\r\nHOURS...WITH A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMING THE MORE\r\nDOMINANT SYSTEM AND ABSORBING ANDREA BY 72 HOURS EAST OF\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/24 KT.  ANDREA WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT BECOMES INCREASINGLY\r\nEMBEDDED IN STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY SMALL...AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nIT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT EVEN THOUGH ANDREA HAS BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...THE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND\r\nLOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS\r\nTHE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND.  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM\r\nTHE DELMARVA PENINSULA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nCOMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING\r\nPRODUCTS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 36.1N  77.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 39.3N  74.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 43.4N  67.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 46.0N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 46.9N  51.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Andrea","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-06-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 07 2013\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS SOMEWHAT\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND THIS IS\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE CYCLONE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL ZONE. \r\nHOWEVER OUR BEST CENTER LOCATION ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT.  NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL\r\nACCELERATION IS LIKELY AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN\r\nEASTWARD IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IN A DAY OR TWO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO\r\nCLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH REMAIN IN\r\nFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT.   \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE AVAILABLE WIND OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST HAVE\r\nDROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE...STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY STILL\r\nOCCURRING FARTHER OFFSHORE.  GIVEN THE 30-KT FORWARD MOTION...\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY STILL CLOSE TO 40 KT. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BECOMING ABSORBED OR MERGING WITH\r\nANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITHIN 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL\r\nFLOODING WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY ACROSS NEW JERSEY AND NEW ENGLAND. \r\nHAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nCOMMUNICATED THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING\r\nPRODUCTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 38.5N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 41.7N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 45.4N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 46.8N  55.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 47.0N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Andrea","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-06-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013\r\n \r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED AND\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE. THE CENTER HAS BEEN PLACED NEAR THE AREA OF\r\nMINIMUM PRESSURE AND USING CONTINUITY. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 30\r\nKNOTS. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS...BUT THESE WINDS ARE\r\nOCCURRING PRIMARILY WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nI DO NOT HAVE MUCH MORE TO SAY ABOUT THIS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE HIGH LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\n \r\nTHE THREAT FOR HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LOCALIZED COASTAL\r\nFLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HAZARDOUS\r\nCONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE COMMUNICATED THROUGH\r\nLOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING PRODUCTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 40.9N  72.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 44.0N  67.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 46.5N  60.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 47.5N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Andrea","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-06-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012013\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 08 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO RACE UP THE\r\nEASTERN SEABOARD AND IS LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MAINE.  ALL\r\nGALE-FORCE WINDS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE U.S. COAST\r\nOVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE\r\nWILL BE COMING TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY FROM NHC.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nWILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH\r\nSUNDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/34 KT...AND THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IN 36\r\nHOURS.  THIS WILL TAKE THE CENTER ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA AND THEN\r\nOVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW IN 48\r\nHOURS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BEFORE\r\nABSORPTION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION\r\nFOR ATLANTIC CANADA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECASTS ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT\r\nCANADA AT WEATHER.GC.CA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 43.6N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 45.9N  63.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 47.0N  55.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 47.7N  47.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/1200Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-06-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1100 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013\r\n\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION HAS FORMED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.   THEREFORE THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nDEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CENTER IS NEARING THE COAST OF\r\nBELIZE AND THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY\r\nIF THE SYSTEM EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON TUESDAY AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE NHC FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 290/11.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW\r\nAN EAST-WEST RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WEAKENS SOMEWHAT IN\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF TRACKS.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD\r\nCAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 16.2N  87.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 16.9N  89.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 18.0N  91.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 18.8N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 19.3N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 19.7N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-06-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n500 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN HARD TO LOCATE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHERN BELIZE. THE SYSTEM DID NOT STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...AND\r\nIN FACT BECAME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST.\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MIGHT BE\r\nGENEROUS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER LAND...SOME OF IT\r\nMOUNTAINOUS...FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS\r\nCONCEIVABLE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE IN THAT TIME\r\nFRAME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nAN EAST-WEST RIDGE WEAKENING...BUT REMAINING IN PLACE...OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS.  THE 1800 UTC TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nSOMETHAT SLOWER THAN THAT FROM THIS MORNING...AND SO IS THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LATEST GFS...HOWEVER THE NEW ECMWF MODEL RUN IS FARTHER SOUTH\r\nAND SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM MIGHT NOT BE ABLE TO EMERGE INTO THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD\r\nCAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 16.4N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.2N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 17.9N  91.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 18.4N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 18.8N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 19.3N  96.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 19.5N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-06-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS CONTINUED MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT\r\nAROUND 8 KT THIS EVENING OVER BELIZE...AS BEST CAN BE DETERMINED\r\nFROM THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND SPARSE OBSERVATIONAL DATA.\r\nA CONTINUED TRACK IN THIS DIRECTION...THOUGH SLOWER...SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A WEAK DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT\r\nABOUT DAY THREE...A BEND TO THE WEST OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWEST IS\r\nANTICIPATED...WHICH IS COMMON FOR CYCLONES REACHING THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE BECAUSE OF THE HIGH TOPOGRAPHY OF MEXICO. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT JUST SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS BASED PRIMARILY UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL\r\nMODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE A 96 HR FORECAST POINT IS PROVIDED TO SHOW \r\nCONTINUITY OF THE TRACK OVER MAINLAND MEXICO...IT IS NOT LIKELY\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE QUITE THAT LONG OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE LIMITED SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25\r\nKT.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT BEFORE LANDFALL A 1904Z AMSU PASS INDICATED\r\nA MODEST UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED...WITH THE CIMSS\r\nINTENSITY ANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BRIEFLY REACHED\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN OVER LAND\r\nFOR ABOUT THE NEXT 36 HR...SO GRADUAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  AS THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK NOW ONLY BRIEFLY HAS THE CYCLONE REACHING THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE WHILE MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nCONTINUING...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL OVER\r\nMEXICO.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE\r\nEARLIER WHILE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD\r\nCAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 16.7N  88.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 17.2N  90.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 17.8N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 18.2N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 18.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 18.8N  96.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 18.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-06-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED...\r\nAND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO\r\nFIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED\r\nSOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN\r\nGENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR\r\nNORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED\r\nA LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH\r\nOF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER\r\nOFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN\r\nSHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nBEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD\r\nCAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nEASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 17.0N  89.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 17.5N  90.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 18.1N  92.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 18.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 18.6N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 18.7N  96.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-06-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE\r\nDEPRESSION STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ACCOMPANIED BY A\r\nLARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER COVERING MOST OF THE YUCATAN\r\nPENISULA. BASED ON THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...THERE IS A\r\nLIKELIHOOD THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN\r\nTROUGH LATER TODAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER LAND.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.  EVEN IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER AS\r\nFORECAST...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED SINCE A\r\nLARGE PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN OVER LAND.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 300\r\nDEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF\r\nMEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW\r\nRIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY \r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY\r\nOF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE CONSENSUS WHICH IN FACT\r\nHAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT NORTHWARD. GIVEN THE HISTORICAL SLIGHT\r\nNORTHWARD BIAS OBSERVED IN THE MODELS IN THIS AREA...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS PLACED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nALTHOUGH A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH\r\nCOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nAND EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 17.9N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.1N  91.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 18.7N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 19.0N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 19.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 19.2N  96.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-06-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013\r\n \r\nA FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT\r\nLOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA\r\nFROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS\r\nTIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE\r\nREDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS\r\nCURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO\r\nBE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE\r\nCURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD\r\nOVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR\r\nSO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE\r\nDISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH\r\nCOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nAND EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 18.3N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 18.7N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 19.0N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 19.0N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-06-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE \r\nDEPRESSION HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF \r\nCAMPECHE THIS EVENING.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS\r\nREDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  A SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nOF 25 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINSISTS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE AND\r\nBEND WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. \r\nTHE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AT 12 AND 24 HOURS DUE TO A MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL\r\nPOSITION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS A RESULT...THE \r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND ALTHOUGH IT IS\r\nNOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION COULD ATTAIN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. IN FACT...BASED ON THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AND TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS ABOUT\r\nA 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 24\r\nHOURS. BECAUSE OF THAT POSSIBILITY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS\r\nISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE\r\nSIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND \r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 18.9N  92.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 19.2N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.2N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 19.0N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 19.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-06-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n400 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING FEATURE BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE DISTINCT OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB ARE 25 KT...AN ASCAT PASS FROM A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO...THAT CAUGHT A PORTION OF THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION...SUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...HOWEVER THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nALSO...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER THE SYSTEM WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nMOST RECENT STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EASY TO LOCATE ON\r\nNIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 300/8.  A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER\r\nTEXAS SHOULD INDUCE SOME ADDITIONAL DECELERATION ALONG WITH A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER.  THIS IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST ECMWF MODEL FORECAST...AND DELAYS THE TIME OF LANDFALL\r\nIN MEXICO A LITTLE IN COMPARISON TO THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS\r\nREPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WITH A WARNING FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE STATE OF VERACRUZ.  \r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE\r\nSIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 19.3N  93.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 19.4N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 19.4N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 19.3N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 19.2N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-06-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1000 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS INCREASED THIS\r\nMORNING AND THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A\r\nTROPICAL STORM...IF IT IS NOT ONE NOW. IN FACT...A MEXICAN NAVY\r\nMETEOROLOGICAL STATION MEASURED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN\r\nGUSTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION EARLIER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL\r\nGIVE US A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE CURRENT\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO ABATE AS A\r\nSMALL UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMS OVER THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS\r\nROOM FOR SOME STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO ON THURSDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE WEST AND IS NOW MOVING 280 DEGREES\r\nAT 8 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NARROW\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FLOW\r\nPATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A\r\nSLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE\r\nSIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY THE\r\nSTATE OF VERACRUZ DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 19.6N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 19.5N  95.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 19.5N  96.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 19.5N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND\r\nNAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON.  SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR\r\nVALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN\r\nCONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO\r\nSTRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18\r\nHOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES\r\nINLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE.\r\n \r\nBARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...\r\nAND THIS GENERAL MOTION  WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER\r\nBECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION\r\nWILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND\r\nWHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE\r\nPORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER\r\nLOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 19.6N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 19.6N  96.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 19.6N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. \r\nLATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE\r\nEARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000\r\nUTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC\r\nINTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA\r\nAND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH\r\nAT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS.  A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF\r\nVERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.\r\n\r\nBARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE \r\nTHROUGH LANDFALL.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE\r\nTHE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER LANDFALL \r\nWEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nTHE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL \r\nTHAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A \r\nLARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 19.6N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 19.6N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 19.5N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 19.5N  98.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LAGUNA VERDE...VERACRUZ HARBOR AND\r\nSACRIFICE ISLAND STATIONS NEAR THE CITY OF VERACRUZ INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY NEAR THE COAST...AND BARRY SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL\r\nIN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ SHORTLY. THERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY SEEMS LIKELY IN THE\r\nSHORT TIME REMAINING BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BE RAPID AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND THE CIRCULATION\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE EXTREMELY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOWLY WESTWARD OR ABOUT 270/4. \r\nA WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF BARRY SHOULD MAINTAIN THIS\r\nWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT POSED BY THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY\r\nRAINS THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A\r\nLARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 19.6N  96.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 19.6N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 19.6N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barry","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1000 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF BARRY\r\nMADE LANDFALL BETWEEN 1200 AND 1300 UTC JUST NORTH OF VERACRUZ\r\nMEXICO WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40 KNOTS. SINCE THAT\r\nTIME...WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING OVER\r\nWATER NEAR THE COAST.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS ALREADY INLAND...THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCOAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN\r\nADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS WELL EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD\r\nWESTWARD PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS...PRIMARILY OVER THE STATE OF\r\nVERACRUZ FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE\r\nSIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF\r\nSOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\nBARRY IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS TRAPPED SOUTH OF NARROW\r\nHIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 19.6N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 19.6N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 19.6N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barry","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BARRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE WELL\r\nINLAND OVER MEXICO. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AVAILABLE IN THE AREA\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...AND MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN\r\nRAINBANDS OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE HIGH\r\nTERRAIN AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. \r\n\r\nDESPITE THE WEAKENING...THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT STATES FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING\r\nAND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 19.6N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 19.6N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Barry","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-06-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013\r\n1000 PM CDT THU JUN 20 2013\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION OF BARRY IS\r\nLOSING DEFINITION AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF\r\nEASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.  IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION REMAINING NEAR THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS...BARRY IS\r\nESTIMATED TO HAVE DEGENERATED TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA.  THE LOW WILL\r\nLIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 12-18 HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING\r\nCOMPLETELY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/5...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD\r\nPERSIST UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nWHILE THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BARRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nHURRICANE CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nPRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT\r\nSTATES FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 19.6N  98.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 19.6N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN JUL 07 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS INCREASED IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION HAD\r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED SINCE THIS MORNING....WITH SEVERAL\r\nUNCONTAMINATED 35-KT WIND VECTORS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  BASED ON THE ASCAT AND AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE\r\nDATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/23.  A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO STEER CHANTAL ON A\r\nWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nWITH LITTLE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  A SECOND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP CHANTAL ON THE SAME HEADING\r\nUNTIL A WEAKNESS BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...THE TRACK OF CHANTAL SHOULD BEND MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN POSSIBLY NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO\r\nTHROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS BUT THEN BEGINS TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD ALLOW CHANTAL TO INTENSIFY SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION WITH HISPANIOLA AND CUBA IN\r\nABOUT 72-96 HOURS COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST BUT IS LIKELY\r\nTO RESULT IN WEAKENING...ESPECIALLY SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW\r\nIS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AFFECT CHANTAL BY THAT TIME.  THIS\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY FLOW AND LAND INTERACTION COULD EVEN CAUSE\r\nCHANTAL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nGUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z  9.8N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 10.8N  50.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 12.1N  55.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 13.9N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 15.6N  65.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 18.4N  73.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 22.0N  77.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 25.0N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n500 AM EDT MON JUL 08 2013\r\n \r\nCHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL\r\nDEFINED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS CURRENTLY A LITTLE\r\nRAGGED-LOOKING IN APPEARANCE.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN 2.5...SO THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE AREA IS NOT STRONG AT THIS\r\nTIME...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT WESTERLY SHEAR WILL\r\nINCREASE IN 1-2 DAYS.  ALSO...CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES THAT MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE\r\nDEEP TROPICS HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS.  BEYOND\r\n2 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT CHANTAL WILL HAVE INTERACTED WITH THE\r\nLAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING IN THE 3-4 DAY TIME FRAME.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES OVER\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING. \r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE 3-5 DAY INTENSITY FORECAST...HOWEVER...IS NOT\r\nHIGH.\r\n\r\nLATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT A RAPID WESTWARD MOTION...\r\n280/23...IS CONTINUING.  THERE ARE NO BIG CHANGES TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  CHANTAL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nPRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A STRONG HIGH\r\nPRESSURE CELL OVER THE SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLANTIC SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nCONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN 2-3 DAYS.  THEREAFTER...A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD LEAD TO A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND TO THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS...THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.  AT 3-5 DAYS...THE NHC TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE GFS...ONE OF THE FEW DYNAMICAL MODELS TO\r\nMAINTAIN A COHERENT VORTEX THROUGH DAY 5...IS FARTHER TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 10.4N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 11.4N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 12.9N  57.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 14.6N  62.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 16.2N  66.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 19.0N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 22.5N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 25.5N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n1100 AM AST MON JUL 08 2013\r\n \r\nCONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS\r\nDEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...ALTHOUGH THE CORE\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF TAFB...SAB...ADT...AND AMSU SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES. VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATE THAT\r\nCHANTAL HAS DEVELOPED SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS A RATHER BRISK 280/23 KT. NO\r\nCHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. CHANTAL IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BY DAY 3\r\nAND BEYOND...A VIGOROUS MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF\r\nTHE BAHAMAS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD AND MERGE WITH A\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH...CREATING A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THIS\r\nDEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND LIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...CLOSE TO THE GFS AND FSSE MODELS.\r\n \r\nOTHER THAN THE FAST FORWARD SPEED OF CHANTAL...ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS UNDERNEATH A 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. INTERACTION WITH\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA IN ABOUT\r\nTHREE DAYS...COUPLED WITH INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSED TO CHANTAL TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BY\r\nDAY 3...AND CONTINUE INTO DAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nUNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL AND THE FSSE MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 10.9N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 12.0N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 13.6N  59.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 15.2N  64.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 16.8N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 19.8N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 23.3N  76.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 26.0N  78.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n500 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013\r\n \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF CHANTAL HAS OCCURRED\r\nTODAY...SO THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. HOWEVER...AN\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO THE CYCLONE\r\nAND IT WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY SHORTLY.\r\nVISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW PATTERN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/23 KT. CHANTAL IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN SOUTH OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT\r\n2 DAYS...SO A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHAT TIME. BY DAYS 3-5...A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND PHASE UP WITH A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AXIS AND PRODUCE\r\nA WEAKER STEERING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE\r\nBAHAMAS. AS A RESULT...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS IT APPROACHES THE WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE...AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD ON\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 AS THE STEERING FLOW COLLAPSES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK...BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR RIGHT AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AROUND AND AHEAD OF CHANTAL FAVOR AT LEAST\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...AND\r\nCHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE IT REACHES\r\nHISPANIOLA. AFTER CHANTAL MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA ON DAY 2/3...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS FLORIDA...\r\nWHICH IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 11.8N  53.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 13.0N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 14.6N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 16.2N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 17.8N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 21.0N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 24.3N  76.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 26.7N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n1100 PM AST MON JUL 08 2013\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF CHANTAL HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY SINCE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...WITH MORE BANDING FEATURES EVIDENT IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINVESTIGATING CHANTAL FOUND A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT NORTHWEST AND\r\nWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND WERE THEREFORE ABLE TO CLOSE OFF\r\nA CIRCULATION.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n58 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 40 TO 42 KT.  A BLEND OF THE\r\nSFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KT.\r\nTHE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A SURPRISINGLY HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010\r\nMB.\r\n \r\nCHANTAL CONTINUES TO RACE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KT. THE\r\nSTORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SOME DECELERATE\r\nEXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES HISPANIOLA IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...A NORTHWESTWARD TURN AND A FURTHER REDUCTION IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS FORECAST AS A BREAK IN THE RIDGE DEVLOPS OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS AND WESTERN ATLANTIC\r\nBETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS OR SO OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...BUT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT THEREAFTER.  THE LATEST GFS HAS\r\nSHIFTED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED NORTHWARD AND\r\nEASTWARD TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IT LIES\r\nSOUTH AND WEST OF THE LASTEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES HISPANIOLA.  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND THE\r\nUPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nADVISORY.  AFTER CHANTAL INTERACTS WITH HISPANIOLA...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST BECOMES QUITE UNCERTAIN.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE \r\nIT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MUCH\r\nLESS FAVORABLE.  ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE FORECAST...\r\nCHANTAL COULD WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR PERHAPS EVEN\r\nDISSIPATE IN THE 3 TO 4 DAY TIME PERIOD.  NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR RESTRENGTHENING IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST ASSUMES THAT CHANTAL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nRE-INTENSIFY UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS AROUND DAY 5.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 12.4N  56.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 13.7N  59.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 15.3N  63.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 17.1N  67.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 19.0N  71.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 22.5N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 25.5N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 27.5N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n500 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013\r\n \r\nCHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nRADAR DATA FROM BARBADOS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS LOCATED ON THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE COLDEST CLOUD\r\nTOPS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY.  OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT VERY\r\nWELL ORGANIZED AND LACKS WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 45 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AND ASCAT DATA.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE CHANTAL LATER THIS MORNING AND\r\nWILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF ITS INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WITH THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 290/23.  A CONTINUED FAST\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nTHE STORM REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THIS MOTION SHOULD TAKE CHANTAL ACROSS THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES LATER THIS MORNING...AND NEAR HISPANIOLA ON\r\nWEDNESDAY.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A TROUGH\r\nMOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTHE RIDGE AND CAUSE CHANTAL TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST.  A SLIGHT LEFT TURN IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS THE MODELS SHOW A RIDGE REBUILDING TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF CHANTAL BY THAT TIME.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST THEREAFTER...TO COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS CHANTAL\r\nREMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE WIND\r\nSHEAR.  PRONOUNCED WEAKENING IS THEN EXPECTED WHEN CHANTAL MOVES\r\nOVER OR INTERACTS WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA.  IF THE\r\nCYCLONE SURVIVES ITS TREK ACROSS HISPANIOLA...IT COULD RE-INTENSIFY\r\nAS THE ENVIRONMENTAL WIND PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM REACHES THE BAHAMAS.  ONLY SLIGHT\r\nMODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS IN\r\nLINE WITH THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 13.3N  58.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 14.6N  61.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 16.3N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 18.2N  69.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 20.1N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 23.5N  74.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 26.5N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 28.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n1100 AM AST TUE JUL 09 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT DISTINCT BUT EXCELLENT RADAR DATA\r\nFROM BARBADOS AND MARTINIQUE SHOW THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF\r\nCHANTAL MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ABOUT 25 KNOTS BETWEEN MARTINIQUE\r\nAN ST. LUCIA. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF\r\n70 TO 75 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY WITH A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 1003 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS LEVELED OFF\r\nTO ABOUT 1006 MB. BASED ON MORE REPRESENTIVE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE\r\nPLANE...AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50\r\nKNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF CHANTAL IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS IS\r\nFORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE IN THE AREA OF THE BAHAMAS FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...AND ONLY SMALL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED AFTER THE CYCLONE CROSSES HISPANIOLA.  THIS IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS.\r\n\r\nCHANTAL IS RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 25\r\nKNOTS. I AM SURPRISED THE SYSTEM EVEN HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nMOVING AT THAT SPEED. CHANTAL IS BEING STEERED BY A RATHER STRONG\r\nEASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN\r\nAND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. BY DAY 4 AND 5 THE STERING CURRENTS WILL BE WEAK AND\r\nCHANTAL WILL PROBABLY MOVE VERY SLOWLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS BASICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 14.4N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 15.8N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 17.4N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 19.3N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 21.3N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 24.5N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 26.5N  77.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 27.5N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n500 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013\r\n \r\nCHANTAL PRODUCED TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH\r\nTHE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE HIGHEST OBSERVED WIND\r\nGUST...68 KT...WAS REPORTED BY METEO-FRANCE AT LAMENTIN AIRPORT IN\r\nMARTINIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE\r\nRAGGED...THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SMALL CENTER OF CIRCULATION AS\r\nINDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 55 KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE\r\nWINDS IS FORECAST BEFORE CHANTAL CROSSES HISPANIOLA...WHERE\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED. AFTER THAT...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY FAVORABLE...BUT COULD ALLOW MODEST RESTRENGTHENING AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nCHANTAL CONTINUES RACING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT\r\n23 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE STORM MOVES OVER THE\r\nEASTERN CARIBBEAN AND HISPANIOLA...THE HIGH TO THE NORTH IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND THE STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WEAKEN. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE SHIFTED WESTWARD IN THE LAST\r\nRUN AND CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IF THIS WESTWARD\r\nMODEL TREND CONTINUES IN THE NEXT CYCLE...I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED\r\nIF ANOTHER WESTWARD SHIFT WILL BE REQUIRED.  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 15.2N  63.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 16.5N  66.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 18.0N  70.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 20.0N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 22.0N  75.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 26.0N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 28.0N  78.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 31.1N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n1100 PM AST TUE JUL 09 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF CHANTAL BECAME LESS ORGANIZED DURING\r\nTHE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT THERE HAS BEEN A BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION RECENTLY NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  THE PLANE\r\nHAS HAD DIFFICULTY FIXING A CENTER...WITH THE WIND FIELD RESEMBLING\r\nAN OPEN WAVE RATHER THAN A CLOSED CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER...AIR SPACE\r\nRESTRICTIONS PREVENTED THE PLANE FROM SAMPLING THE AREA FARTHER\r\nSOUTH...SO IT IS INCONCLUSIVE AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nSTILL EXISTS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS\r\nTAKEN PLACE...WITH PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR\r\nWINDS OF 50 AND 42 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE RAPID FORWARD MOTION OF CHANTAL COULD SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE CYCLONE...AS SHOWN BY SHIPS AND\r\nUW-CIMSS ANALYSES.  THE SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO THE CENTER MOVING OVER OR NEAR HISPANIOLA. \r\nINTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THAT ISLAND SHOULD\r\nDISRUPT THE CIRCULATION ENOUGH TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OR\r\nEVEN POSSIBLY DISSIPATION.  WHATEVER REMAINS OF CHANTAL AFTER THAT\r\nWILL ENCOUNTER HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nATLANTIC IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE GFS SUGGESTS A DECOUPLING OF THE\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL CENTERS...WHILE ECMWF MAINTAINS MORE VERTICAL\r\nINTEGRITY.  IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES INTERACTION WITH LAND AND\r\nSTRONG SHEAR...IT COULD REGENERATE OR RESTRENGTHEN LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD.\r\n \r\nABSENT RELIABLE CENTER FIXES...THE SPEEDY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...\r\n285/25...OF CHANTAL IS QUITE UNCERTAIN.  BASED ON AVAILABLE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA THE CENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE SOUTH RELATIVE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH HAS A RESULTED IN SOUTHWARD AND\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS.  A STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE GUIDING CHANTAL RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS\r\nFORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS\r\nDEVELOPS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD\r\nINTO FLORIDA.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE TRACK OF CHANTAL BENDING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST LEANS ON THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION WHICH HAS A\r\nSHALLOWER CYCLONE BEYOND 48 HOURS.    \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 15.3N  66.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 16.7N  69.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 18.6N  72.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 20.6N  75.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER LAND\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 22.6N  76.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 26.5N  78.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 29.0N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n500 AM AST WED JUL 10 2013\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION AND NOAA DATA BUOY\r\n42059 INDICATE THAT CHANTAL MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM HAS ALSO\r\nDETERIORATED MARKEDLY THIS MORNING...AND IS BARELY CLASSIFIABLE BY\r\nTHE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.  FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS DO NOT\r\nSUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF MORE THAN 40 KT...AND THE CURRENT WIND\r\nSPEED IS SET AT THAT VALUE.  EVEN IF CHANTAL DOES NOT CEASE ITS\r\nEXISTENCE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS STRONG\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nSHEAR...ALONG WITH LAND INTERACTION...SHOULD CAUSE FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\nTHAT CHANTAL MOVED VERY RAPIDLY WESTWARD...NEAR 28 KT...OVER THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A MORE CONSERVATIVE...LONGER-TERM...ESTIMATE\r\nOF INITIAL MOTION IS 285/25.  A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE STORM HAS BEEN STEERING IT QUICKLY WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY OF THE\r\nEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nCHANTAL...OR ITS REMNANT...TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH\r\nOVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SINCE THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SUBSTANTIALLY WESTWARD IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY... THIS NECESSITATES A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK.  NONETHELESS...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS STILL\r\nON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CYCLONE MAY BE OPENING UP INTO A WAVE...ADVISORIES MAY BE\r\nDISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 16.5N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 17.8N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 19.5N  75.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 21.5N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 23.8N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 27.5N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 31.0N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 32.5N  82.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Chantal","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 10 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAD A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION THIS MORNING...THANKS TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING CHANTAL...WE WERE\r\nABLE TO LOCATE ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION TO MAINTAIN ADVISORIES.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS BUT GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG THE PATH OF CHANTAL...ALONG WITH THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF SURROUNDING LAND...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING. CHANTAL WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS...OR\r\nPERHAPS MUCH EARLIER.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CENTER DEFINITION\r\nIS POOR. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 25 KNOTS. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH TO THE\r\nNORTH MOVES EASTWARD AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMANTS DURING THE 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT PRIMARILY WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 16.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 18.1N  75.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 20.0N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 22.5N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 25.0N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 30.0N  80.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Chantal","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME\r\nAIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING\r\nTHE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST\r\nLONGITUDE.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE\r\nAXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT\r\nOF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\nTHIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER\r\nJAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE\r\nHEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT.\r\nNEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY\r\nMONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 16.5N  73.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL\r\n 12H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC\r\nHAS INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.  EARLIER SCATTEROMETER\r\nDATA INDICATED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285 DEGREES AT \r\n17 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD OR WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER \r\nTHE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE \r\nSOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAST THE CYCLONE MOVES WESTWARD.  THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF SHOW A FASTER FORWARD MOTION THAN MOST OF THE OTHER \r\nTRACK MODELS.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THESE\r\nTYPICALLY RELIABLE MODELS AND SHOWS A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION THAN\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nWATERS AND INTO A LITTLE DRIER ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nIN THE NHC FORECAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC WHICH COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. \r\nBECAUSE OF THIS...THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 13.9N  28.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 14.6N  30.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 15.5N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 16.2N  37.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 16.8N  41.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 18.2N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 19.3N  56.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 20.0N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 24 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAND HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM DORIAN. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A 38-KT ASCAT SURFACE WIND AT\r\n1111Z... AND VARIOUS OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\nABOUT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS TRACK SCENARIO...WITH THE ONLY DIFFERENCES BEING SLIGHT\r\nVARIATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCN.\r\n \r\nFOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nVERY LOW WHILE DORIAN REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...\r\nDURING THE 24-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER 25C\r\nSSTS...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FAVORABLE EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF\r\nWARM UNSTABLE AIR THAT IS OFFSETTING THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIR\r\nBEING INGESTED FROM THE NORTH...AND THAT COULD OFFSET THE EFFECTS\r\nOF DORIAN PASSING OVER COOLER WATERS. FOR THAT REASON...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST ONLY SHOWS SLIGHT WEAKENING AT 36- AND 48-HOURS. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER BOTH WARMER WATER\r\nAND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD\r\nSTEADY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE HIGHER\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY...BUT THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND OF CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 14.3N  29.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 15.0N  32.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 15.8N  36.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 16.4N  39.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 17.1N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 18.3N  51.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 19.3N  58.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 20.1N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 24 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF DORIAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS\r\nIMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/17 KT. DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN SOUTH OF AND MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD IN TANDEM\r\nWITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH. THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED...WHICH IS DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH\r\nOF DORIAN. THE GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS MAINTAIN A ROBUST\r\nAND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE...WHICH GETS STEERED MORE SLOWLY\r\nBY THE DEEPER MEAN FLOW. IN CONTRAST...THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nWEAKEN DORIAN SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE CYCLONE PASSES OVER COOLER WATER\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH RESULTS IN A SHALLOWER AND WEAKER\r\nVORTEX BEING STEERED MORE RAPIDLY WESTWARD BY THE STRONGER EASTERLY\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW. GIVEN THAT DORIAN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER\r\nAT A BRISK 18 KT FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...MY FEELING IS THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS THE SOME OF THE MODELS ARE\r\nFORECASTING...AND AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE SLOWER GFS...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nDORIAN IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REMAIN OVER COOLER WATERS NEAR 25C FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO...WHICH COULD INDUCE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. HOWEVER...BY 36-48\r\nHOURS...DORIAN WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 26C AND IN\r\nA VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR.  THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nARE SHOWING A LESS HOSTILE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...WITH MORE RIDGING AND LESS INFLUENCE FROM AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS.  IN CONSIDERATION OF THAT...\r\nTHE FORECAST INTENSITIES AT DAYS 4-5 HAVE BEEN INCREASED RELATIVE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 14.6N  31.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 15.3N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 16.1N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 16.8N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 17.5N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 18.7N  51.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 19.6N  58.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 20.0N  64.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 PM AST WED JUL 24 2013\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nDORIAN HAS BECOME MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS.\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW A CONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT\r\nWHILE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 50-55 KT.\r\nBASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA...HOWEVER...DORIAN MAY NOT BE PRODUCING\r\nSURFACE WINDS ANY HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT.  THIS COULD BE DUE TO\r\nTHE RESOLUTION OF ASCAT SINCE DORIAN IS A SMALL CYCLONE...SO THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION REMAINS 285/17 KT WITH DORIAN LYING ON THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DETACH FROM THE RIDGE AND MOVE\r\nWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nKEEPING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A QUICK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD TRAJECTORY.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK\r\nMODELS ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nAN ANIMATION OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE FIELDS INDICATES THAT THE\r\nWATERS AHEAD OF DORIAN HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nDAYS...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER\r\nWATERS A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  IN\r\nADDITION...DORIAN SHOULD BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH THAT UPWELLING OF\r\nCOOLER WATER SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF A FACTOR.  THEREFORE...THE NEW\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST NO LONGER SHOWS SHORT-TERM WEAKENING AND\r\nINSTEAD INDICATES SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGH DAY 5.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT NOT NEARLY AS HIGH\r\nAS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER LOW AT THIS POINT UNTIL WE KNOW\r\nHOW DORIAN FARES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.1N  33.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.7N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 16.5N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.9N  46.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 19.0N  54.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.0N  60.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 20.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013\r\n\r\nDORIAN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH\r\nSTRONGER CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER. A RECENT AMSU\r\nOVERPASS SHOWED A MID-LEVEL EYE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CONVECTION...\r\nALTHOUGH IT WAS UNCLEAR IF THIS FEATURE WAS DIRECTLY OVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND A RECENT AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM CIMSS WAS 48 KT.  BASED ON THIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nINCREASED TO 50 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/15.  DORIAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...DORIAN SHOULD\r\nAPPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A DECREASED FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE NORTH SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  BASED ON THIS...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IT LIES SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLEX AND OF LOW CONFIDENCE. DORIAN\r\nSHOULD MOVE OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT\r\n2-3 DAYS...BUT DURING THIS TIME IT ALSO MAY ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR AT THE MID-LEVELS. IN\r\nADDITION...THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECASTS FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nBECOME QUITE DIVERGENT BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS...WITH THE\r\nPOSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nTO SHEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE DORIAN TO WEAKEN. OVERALL...THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING THE\r\nNEXT FIVE DAYS...AND THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL AND IS STRONGER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 15.6N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 16.3N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 17.0N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 17.8N  44.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 18.3N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 19.5N  55.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 20.5N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 21.5N  67.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 AM AST THU JUL 25 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OR\r\nSTRUCTURE OF DORIAN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE COMPACT\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED A SMALL BUT SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN...ALONG WITH GOOD LOW-LEVEL EQUATORIAL INFLOW.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...\r\nSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 50 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIX\r\nPOSITIONS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/15. THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO\r\nCHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON DORIAN MOVING IN\r\nA GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO BE THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF DORIAN...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF BEING THE FASTEST\r\nMODELS WITH A WEAKER CYCLONE...WHILE THE GFS AND GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nMODELS ARE THE SLOWEST DUE TO THEIR FORECASTING A STRONGER VORTEX.\r\nBASED ON THE BETTER PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS MODEL INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION AND SHOWS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED TO BEGIN BY 48-72 HOURS AS DORIAN APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO BUT SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.\r\n \r\nDORIAN APPEARS TO HAVE SURVIVED PASSAGE OVER THE REGION OF COOLEST\r\nSSTS OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW MOVING OVER AND TOWARD WARMER WATERS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED EQUATORIAL INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR\r\nLIKELY HELPED OFFSET THE COOLING BENEATH DORIAN...THAT LIFELINE IS\r\nFORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO BE CUT OFF DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH WILL RESULT IN THE COMPACT CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH A\r\nREGION OF DECREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MORE STABLE AIR...\r\nPRODUCING SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15\r\nKT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IF THE\r\nINNER CORE CONVECTION CAN REMAIN INTACT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM SOLUTIONS...AND ASSUMES\r\nDORIAN WILL SURVIVE ITS TREK THROUGH UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nCONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 16.0N  35.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 16.6N  38.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 17.4N  42.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 18.0N  46.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 18.7N  49.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 19.8N  57.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 20.7N  63.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 21.5N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 PM AST THU JUL 25 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...DORIAN HAS MADE A COMEBACK WITH A BURST OF\r\nCOLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1728Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A\r\nNEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nEYE FEATURE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT\r\nAND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT-B\r\nOVERPASS AT 1230Z INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 48 KT NORTH\r\nOF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16. SEVERAL OF THE MORE RELIABLE\r\nMODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS RUN OFF THE NEW WCOSS SUPERCOMPUTER...MADE\r\nA SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD SHIFT ON THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. HOWEVER...THE\r\nOVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DID NOT SHIFT SOUTHWARD...BUT RATHER\r\nCONVERGED EVEN MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST\r\nTRACKS. AS A RESULT...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS\r\nDISCUSSIONS...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO\r\nBE THE FORWARD SPEED OF DORIAN. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE FASTER\r\nMODELS SINCE IT WEAKENS DORIAN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND MOVES IT\r\nQUICKLY IN THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...WHEREAS THE UKMET\r\nAND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE... WHICH MOVES SLOWER IN THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING\r\nFLOW. GIVEN THAT THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS\r\nHAVE HANDLED THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF DORIAN THE BEST THUS\r\nFAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE\r\nNEW ADVISORY TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND\r\nIS IDENTICAL TO BUT REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS\r\nTRACK MODEL TVCN.\r\n \r\nAFTER SURVIVING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD...DORIAN IS\r\nNOW MOVING OVER 26C SSTS AND TOWARD EVEN WARMER WATERS...AND ALSO\r\nINTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN\r\nA LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 72-96 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME\r\nAT LEAST SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C. BY DAY 5...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN\r\nIS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH DORIAN POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SOME MODERATE\r\nTO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS.  GIVEN THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND MAINLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 16.5N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 17.2N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 17.8N  44.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 18.5N  48.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 19.2N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 20.4N  59.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 21.1N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 21.9N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 PM AST THU JUL 25 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF DORIAN HAS NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY\r\nORGANIZED THIS EVENING...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  A 2340 UTC ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATES THAT DORIAN HAS\r\nWEAKENED A BIT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOW 45 KT.\r\n \r\nDORIAN IS BEING DRIVEN QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND ITS ESTIMATED\r\nMOTION IS 285/17 KT.  THE ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nIN TANDEM WITH DORIAN THROUGH DAY 3...BUT THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN\r\nSUGGEST THAT THIS FEATURE WILL EVOLVE INTO A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST\r\nORIENTED RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\nBECAUSE OF THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE.  THE 18Z RUN OF THE GFS\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z RUN AND IS THE SOUTHERNMOST AND SLOWEST\r\nTRACK MODEL WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE NORTHERNMOST AND FASTEST.  THE\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TO FOLLOW THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE...BUT IT ENDS\r\nUP CLOSE TO THE ECMWF TRACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nDORIAN IS EMBEDDED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAST EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nAND RELATIVELY LIGHT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...WHICH APPEARS TO BE\r\nINDUCING SOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE LAYER BELOW\r\nTHE CIRRUS OUTFLOW.  SINCE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ANY TIME SOON...DORIAN COULD EXPERIENCE\r\nPERSISTENT SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON TOP OF THAT...MID-LEVEL\r\nRELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE...AND THE DRY AIR\r\nCOULD INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCH\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL KEEP THE WINDS FLATLINED AT 45 KT THROUGH DAY 3 WITH\r\nNOT MUCH STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THIS FORECAST IS A BIT LOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...PARTIALLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.6N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.2N  42.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 17.8N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 18.3N  50.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 19.0N  54.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 20.0N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 20.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 21.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DORIAN HAS LOST ORGANIZATION SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY...POSSIBLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION...AND THE CONVECTIVE AREA HAS BECOME ELONGATED FROM\r\nNORTH TO SOUTH.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON A\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT AMSU ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS.\r\n \r\nDORIAN IS BEING DRIVEN QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION REMAINS 285/17.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING OR THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD NORTH OF\r\nDORIAN...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD PATH\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE GFS...NAVGEM...AND HWRF ARE THE\r\nSOUTHERNMOST OF THE MODELS...FORECASTING THE STORM TO PASS NEAR OR\r\nOVER HISPANIOLA IN 4-5 DAYS.  THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN\r\nMODELS ARE THE NORTHERNMOST...FORECASTING A POSITION NEAR THE\r\nBAHAMAS IN 5 DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE\r\nSCENARIOS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nDORIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY\r\nAIR ENTRAINMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.   AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DORIAN\r\nSHOULD INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS.  WHILE\r\nTHE GFS SHOWS CONTINUING SHEAR DURING THIS INTERACTION...THE ECMWF\r\nAND UKMET SHOW A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  BASED ON THE PREMISE\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL...THE FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AT 96 HOURS. \r\nAN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD DISSIPATE...EITHER\r\nFROM LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA OR FROM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE\r\nDUE TO THE CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 17.1N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 17.6N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 18.3N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 18.9N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 19.5N  56.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 20.0N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 20.5N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 21.5N  73.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DORIAN IS\r\nRATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT DORIAN WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AND THIS...ALONG WITH MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  LATER\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW THE STATISTICAL-\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW\r\nSOUTH OF A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS. \r\nTHIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 17.7N  43.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 18.1N  46.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 18.7N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 19.2N  54.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 19.7N  58.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 20.2N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 20.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 21.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n \r\nUNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR...DORIAN HAS\r\nBECOME EVEN LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY.  VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME\r\nDISPLACED TO THE WEST OF AN AREA OF WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nALSO...ANIMATION OF THE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CIRCULATION IS BARELY\r\nCLOSED AT THIS TIME.  USING A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB\r\nAND TAFB...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST NOW SHOWS GRADUAL WEAKENING WITH\r\nDISSIPATION BY DAY 5...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nGUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nDEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN WAVE MUCH SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS MOVING RAPIDLY\r\nWESTWARD...SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  A STRONG\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF DORIAN IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH\r\nBUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT INITIALIZE NOR FORECAST A CLOSED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 17.8N  45.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 18.2N  48.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 18.6N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 19.0N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 19.5N  60.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 20.0N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 20.5N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 PM AST FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n \r\nDORIAN APPEARS TO STILL HAVE A VIGOROUS LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS\r\nMEASURED BY A RECENT ASCAT PASS...BUT IT HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS. I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE DORIAN A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nLESSEN...NEW CONVECTION COULD REDEVELOP. THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE FOR A COUPLE OF MORE ADVISORY CYCLES AND MONITOR THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION. SHIPS AND LGEM RE-INTENSIFY THE\r\nCYCLONE A LITTLE BIT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE\r\nECMWF GLOBAL MODELS WHICH GRADUALLY WEAKEN DORIAN.  \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND AS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH...IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...OR HOPEFULLY SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 17.9N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 18.3N  51.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 18.8N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 19.3N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 20.0N  63.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 21.0N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013\r\n\r\nDISORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF DORIAN\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nWIDESPREAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR NEAR THE CYCLONE...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION COULD BE SHORT-LIVED.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KT BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RECENT\r\nOSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DORIAN NO LONGER HAS A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/19.  A STRONG LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH\r\nOF DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE CYCLONE QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nDORIAN IS FORECAST TO EXPERIENCE 15-20 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS WELL AS MOVE THROUGH A DRY\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY 36 HR.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SYSTEM COULD\r\nDEGENERATE TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 72 HR...\r\nAND THUS DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWINDS IN THE AREA WEST OF THE FORECAST POINT OF DISSIPATION ARE NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR RE-GENERATION AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 18.2N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 18.6N  53.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 19.2N  57.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 19.8N  61.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 20.4N  64.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 21.0N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dorian","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 AM AST SAT JUL 27 2013\r\n\r\nDORIAN HAS A VERY DISORGANIZED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...WITH DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS AND NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A DRY\r\nAIR MASS...AND SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST OF DORIAN SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE\r\nSYSTEM SOON.  GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO.  ALTERNATIVELY...SINCE\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BARELY CLOSED...\r\nDORIAN COULD OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AT ANY TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW\r\nAND CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WESTWARD...OR 280/20.  THERE ARE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR FORECAST REASONING.  A\r\nMID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN A\r\nMOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOUT IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...ALONG WITH THE WEAK WIND\r\nFIELD OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...WATCHES OR\r\nWARNINGS ARE NOT NEEDED FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 18.5N  52.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 18.9N  55.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 19.5N  59.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 20.2N  63.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 20.7N  66.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 21.5N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Dorian","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 PM AST SAT JUL 27 2013\r\n \r\nASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT DORIAN NO\r\nLONGER HAD A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THUS...THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO THE HARSH ENVIRONMENT AND HAS DEGENERATED\r\nINTO A TROPICAL WAVE.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS STILL ABOUT 35 KT\r\nACCORDING TO THE ASCAT PASS.  REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS\r\nUNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND VERY DRY AIR IN\r\nTHE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.  THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN SHOULD\r\nPASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND BE IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE WAVE TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 18.9N  54.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS OF DORIAN\r\n 12H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dorian","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE REMNANTS\r\nOF DORIAN...LOCATED EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA HAS INCREASED\r\nAND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ASCAT-B\r\nAND ASCAT-A OVERPASSES AT 0200 UTC AND 0244 UTC...RESPECTIVELY...\r\nDEPICTED A LARGE AREA OF 30-KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\nALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED 35- TO 36-KT VECTORS. IN\r\nADDITION...DOPPLER VELOCITY DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D\r\nRADAR HAS OCCASIONALLY BEEN INDICATING PATCHES OF 35- TO 40-KT\r\nWINDS WITH ISOLATED VALUES TO 45 KT AT 5000-5500 FT ON THE SOUTH\r\nSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN.\r\n \r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BEING ASSIGNED TO DORIAN BASED ON\r\nTHE LARGER-SCALE WIND FIELD NOTED IN ASCAT DATA. ALTHOUGH DORIAN\r\nCOULD BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...I HAVE OPTED TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nANY HIGHER WINDS BY INCREASING THE GUST FACTOR FROM THE STANDARD 40\r\nKT UP TO 45 KT. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...EXCEPT FOR THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR OF ABOUT 20 KT...WHICH IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN\r\n30 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRONGER WIND\r\nSHEAR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD SHEAR APART AND\r\nWEAKEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nBUT SLIGHTLY BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/05 KT. THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE STRONG BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH...AND THEN TURNING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. BY 72\r\nHOURS...DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY THE FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nWHEN IT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCA.\r\n \r\nIT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF DORIAN DOES BECOME A MINIMAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nWHICH WOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS OR\r\nWATCHES FOR ANY LAND AREAS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 28.7N  79.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 29.9N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 31.4N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 33.0N  72.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 35.2N  67.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dorian","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nSTRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION DURING THE EARLY MORNING...AND FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SEPARATED FROM THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONSISTS OF A TIGHT CIRCULATION OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS NOT MORE THAN 30 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS\r\nARE OCCURING IN A FEW SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. GIVEN\r\nTHE PREVAILING STRONG SHEAR...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAND BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR MERGE WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH LATER\r\nTODAY. THE DEPRESSION OR THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST ABOUT 12 TO 15 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES\r\nSOUTHEAST COAST.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 30.6N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 32.1N  77.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 34.0N  73.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 37.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Dorian","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042013\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MOST OF THE\r\nDAY...AND IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN IF A CLOSED CIRCULATION\r\nSTILL EXISTS. ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS NOW CONSIDERED A\r\nREMNANT LOW. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER\r\nTROUGH. THE LOW COULD STILL DEVELOP INTERMITTENT CONVECTION BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATION IN A DAY OR SO. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM\r\nCAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 31.7N  77.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 33.0N  75.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013\r\n \r\nASCAT DATA FROM EARLIER THIS EVENING INDICATED THAT THE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS AN INNER CORE REGION OF\r\nLIGHT WINDS SURROUNDED BY A BAND OF STRONGER WINDS NEAR 30 KT...BUT\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS SUFFICIENTLY WELL DEFINED TO FIT THE DEFINITION\r\nOF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE ONLY T1.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC...BUT GIVEN RECENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS\r\nAND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...CHARACTERIZED BY LOW WIND SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND A\r\nMOIST AIR MASS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BECOME A LITTLE\r\nLESS FAVORABLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REACH\r\nSLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  IN ADDITION...\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO BE CUT OFF FROM ITS DEEP MOISTURE\r\nSOURCE TO THE SOUTH IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  THEREFORE...MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS WITH SOME WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND IT HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/12 KT.  THE\r\nRIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A\r\nCLOSED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF THE AZORES...AND\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRAJECTORY THROUGH THE FIRST 3 DAYS.  ONCE WEAKENING BEGINS IN 4 TO\r\n5 DAYS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AND SHOULD STEER THE\r\nSYSTEM ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL\r\nMODEL...WHICH SHOWS A SLOWER AND MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION...THE\r\nOTHER TRACK MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS THEREFORE VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 14.0N  23.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 14.5N  25.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 15.1N  27.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 15.7N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 16.5N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 17.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 17.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 17.5N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFIVE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.  A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C HAS FORMED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER...AND\r\nTHERE IS OUTER BANDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH...SO THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN A 30-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  HOWEVER...THIS INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...AND\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nGUIDANCE DIVERGES.  THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE\r\nCANADIAN MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TURNING WESTWARD.  THE ECMWF...THE\r\nUKMET...AND THE GFDL SHOW A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...WITH THE CYCLONE MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS\r\nSHOWN A NORTHWARD SHIFT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  SINCE THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DURING\r\nTHIS TIME...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A WESTWARD TURN IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HR...IT IS WELL TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE ECMWF...THE UKMET...THE GFDL...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS IN 48 HR OR\r\nSO.  WHILE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LEAVE THE COOLER WATERS AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nIT SHOULD ENCOUNTER VERY DRY AIR AND WEAKEN...WITH THESE MODELS\r\nSHOWING THE SYSTEM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE BY 120 HR.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT YET FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO...AS THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOW A STEADY-STATE OR STRENGTHENING SYSTEM. \r\nINSTEAD...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEAKENING AS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 14.4N  25.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 15.0N  27.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 15.7N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 16.4N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 17.2N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 18.0N  39.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 18.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 18.0N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS SITUATED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nPOSITION...WITH A SMALL BANDING FEATURE EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS SUPPORTED BY A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 1102 UTC\r\nASCAT-A PASS THAT SHOWED WINDS OF 32 KT. ERIN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT THAT SUPPORTS SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WITH SSTS OF 26-27C...LOW SHEAR...AND A MOIST\r\nENVIRONMENT. BY DAY 3...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nWEAKENING. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF SHOW A WEAK OR\r\nDISSIPATING SYSTEM BY DAY 5...HOWEVER THE SHIPS AND LGEM SHOW\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OR EVEN STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD THE WEAKER SOLUTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WAS ALSO HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE\r\nCENTER OF ERIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES. BASED ON A SOUTHWESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE CENTER\r\nPOSITION THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. ERIN IS CURRENTLY\r\nBEING STEERED BY A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 3...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nINCREASES. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THE GFDL...\r\nGFDL ENSEMBLE MEAN...ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A NORTHWESTWARD OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE FIM...GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND\r\nHWRF ALL SHOW A WESTWARD TRACK...CONSISTENT WITH A SHALLOWER SYSTEM\r\nBEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC FORECAST AT DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5 CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THIS SOUTHERN CAMP OF MODELS AND IS\r\nLARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 14.4N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 15.0N  28.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 15.7N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 16.7N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 17.4N  35.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 18.0N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 18.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 18.0N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF ERIN HAS EVOLVED INTO ONE THAT FEATURES\r\nMORE BANDING AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND WARMER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE\r\nCENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE\r\nLATEST TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED. FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE MOVING THROUGH A MOIST LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH SSTS OF\r\n26-27C...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT MODEST STRENGTHENING. LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...ALTHOUGH SSTS INCREASE...ERIN WILL BE MOVING INTO A DRIER\r\nMORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THEN FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nOF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHOWING GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12...AS THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE TURNED A BIT TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS\r\nBEEN A SIZEABLE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE THIS CYCLE. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW A DEEPER\r\nREPRESENTATION OF ERIN MOVING MORE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT WILL\r\nBE MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE AZORES. AS A RESULT...THE MODELS SHOW\r\nERIN GAINING MORE LATITUDE DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A TURN BACK TOWARD THE LEFT IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS\r\nAS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. FOR THIS CYCLE A NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT HAS\r\nBEEN MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST...BUT THE NHC TRACK IS ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3\r\nTHROUGH 5. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF THIS\r\nNORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE PERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 15.0N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 15.6N  29.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 16.7N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 17.5N  34.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 18.3N  36.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 19.0N  40.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 19.5N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 20.0N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 15 2013\r\n\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIN HAS BEEN ON THE WANE DURING MOST OF\r\nTHE EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH RECENTLY A SMALL BURST HAS FORMED EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL\r\nORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPARENTLY WEST OF THE MID-\r\nLEVEL CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 35 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  THE OVERALL\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SEEMS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITH THE SHEAR FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BUT A LIMITING\r\nFACTOR OF MARGINAL SSTS. IN A FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE FORECAST\r\nTO INCREASE...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...WHICH\r\nWOULD FACILITATE RATHER DRY AIR ALOFT ENTRAINING INTO THE CENTRAL\r\nCORE OF ERIN.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING\r\nAFTER DAY 3...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND\r\nTHE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES GIVE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 295/13. THIS GENERAL\r\nCOURSE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nFROM A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC \r\nWILL ALLOW THAT TRACK TO CONTINUE.  IF THE STORM IS SHALLOW\r\nENOUGH...IT WILL PROBABLY MISS THE WEAKNESS AND INSTEAD TAKE A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TURN BECAUSE OF A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nNEW NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...IT IS STILL WELL\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS\r\nCOULD STILL BE NECESSARY IF THIS NORTHWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nPERSISTS IN FUTURE CYCLES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 15.5N  29.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 16.3N  31.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 17.5N  33.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 18.6N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 19.6N  37.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 20.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 21.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 22.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013\r\n\r\nERIN REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nPARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM\r\nSAB...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE NEAT 0400 UTC WAS 31 KT.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14.  ERIN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERIN WILL\r\nCONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD\r\nAS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.  SUBSEQUENTLY...THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NAVGEM\r\nMODELS FORECAST A SECOND WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN\r\n50W-60W BY 120 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ERIN TO TURN MORE\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS LIKEWISE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nWHILE ERIN IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C...AND METEOSAT AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE\r\nCYCLONE IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF DRIER AIR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HOURS\r\nAGO...AND THUS THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THAT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN THE LONG TERM...AFTER 72 HOURS...ERIN IS\r\nFORECAST TO REACH INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...\r\nIT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND\r\nMORE DRY AIR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST IN SHOWING WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME.  AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE\r\nBEFORE 120 HOURS...AS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT\r\nTHE GFS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 16.3N  30.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 17.3N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 18.6N  34.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 19.6N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 20.3N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 21.0N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 22.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 24.5N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH A COUPLE OF\r\nSMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN...AND ERIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IS\r\nLIKELY THE RESULT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STABLE AIR...\r\nAS SEEN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND AIRMASS PRODUCT. ALTHOUGH ERIN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER IN A FEW DAYS...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE WHILE THE DEPRESSION\r\nREMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION CALLS\r\nFOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS\r\nPOSSIBLE THAT ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN\r\nTROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS...LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE SYSTEM...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED WHEN THE WEAK\r\nCYCLONE MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 16.9N  32.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 17.9N  34.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 19.1N  36.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 19.9N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 20.2N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 21.1N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 23.5N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 25.5N  52.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF ERIN THROUGHOUT THE\r\nDAY. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL\r\nWITH SMALL PATCHES OF CONVECTION. SINCE THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY LIES OVER 25-26C WATERS AND IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A FAIRLY STABLE AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH ERIN WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER WARMER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN A\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE...AND KEEPS ERIN STEADY STATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...ERIN COULD\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...AS SHOWN BY SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nERIN REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT\r\nABOUT 15 KT.  A SLIGHTLY SLOWER MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWEST IS FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE DEPRESSION FEELS\r\nSOME INFLUENCE FROM A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SLIGHT\r\nBEND TO THE LEFT IS PREDICTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN ERIN LIES\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD\r\nANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED\r\nNORTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 17.7N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 18.8N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 19.8N  37.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 20.4N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 20.9N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 22.7N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 25.0N  50.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 28.0N  53.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013\r\n\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS HAVE MARKEDLY INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF A LARGE COLD CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  SHIP MGSG6 PASSED NEAR THE CENTER\r\nRECENTLY AND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 KT.  A REVIEW OF THE\r\nHISTORY OF THE SHIP WIND DATA SUGGESTS THE REPORT IS PROBABLY A FEW\r\nKNOTS TOO HIGH...BUT IT EASILY SUPPORTS A 35 KT INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\nCONVECTION WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE\r\nERIN MOVES OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AND IN A MODERATE SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BY 36H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR...WHICH WOULD PROMOTE THE MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT INTO\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH THE SSTS NOTABLY INCREASE IN A\r\nFEW DAYS...A COMBINATION OF THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...STRONG SHEAR AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ERIN TO DEGENERATE INTO\r\nA REMNANT LOW BY 96H.  THIS SOLUTION IS CONSISTENT WITH THE\r\nRELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THESE MODELS DISSIPATE\r\nTHE CYCLONE EVEN EARLIER THAN THE NEW NHC FORECAST. \r\n\r\nERIN APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KT...\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS HARDER TO LOCATE NOW DUE TO ALL OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED\r\nAS ERIN ENCOUNTERS A REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHROUGH 72H.  THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST\r\nWHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH\r\n36H...THEN IS SHIFTED WESTWARD NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 18.5N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 19.5N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 20.2N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 20.7N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 21.0N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 22.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 24.5N  51.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF ERIN IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER FROM\r\nTHE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE\r\nTHE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ERIN GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED\r\nBY A TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHROUGH 72H.  THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST\r\nWHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN 50W-60W. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...\r\nUKMET...CANADIAN..AND NAVGEM MODELS.  THE TRACK LIES WELL TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH RECURVES ERIN THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE.\r\n\r\nERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C.  WHILE\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS AS SEEN\r\nIN WATER VAPOR AND METEOSAT AIR MASS IMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR ERIN TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96\r\nHOURS.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DISSIPATES EARLIER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nEXCEPT THE GFS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 18.9N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 19.7N  37.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 20.4N  38.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 20.9N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 21.4N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 23.0N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 25.5N  52.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS. ERIN IS STILL OVER 25-26C WATERS...AND ALTHOUGH THE\r\nSSTS INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CONTINUED IMPACT OF\r\nDRY STABLE AIR COMBINED WITH EVEN STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS ERIN DEGENERATING\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5...HOWEVER...THIS\r\nCERTAINLY COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY AT LEAST A FEW MODELS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS JOGGED TO THE NORTH\r\nDURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. A SMOOTHED INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n315/10. A TURN TO THE LEFT...OR WEST-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WHILE A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM. IF ERIN\r\nSURVIVES BEYOND A FEW DAYS...IT WILL LIKELY TURN BACK TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD...MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 19.8N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 20.5N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 21.1N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 21.8N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 22.6N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 25.0N  47.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 28.5N  50.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erin","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERIN CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED...AND IS\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT ERIN SHOULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION\r\nSOON IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SUB-26C WATER AND IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOF AROUND 15 KT. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nWARMER WATERS IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...A DRY STABLE AIRMASS AND\r\nMODERATE SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN EVENTUAL WEAKENING TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS REMNANT LOW STATUS IN 3 DAYS AND\r\nDISSIPATION AT DAY 4...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS SHOWN BY\r\nSEVERAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nERIN HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW SOUTH OF\r\nTHE AZORES. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ERIN HAS TURNED BACK\r\nTOWARD THE LEFT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11. THE\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS INSISTENT ON ERIN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 24N/49W. IF ERIN SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...IT\r\nWILL LIKELY TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS BY 72 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. THE NHC TRACK LIES\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE FSU \r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 21.0N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 21.5N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 22.2N  40.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 23.0N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 24.0N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 26.5N  49.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF ERIN HAS RECENTLY DEGRADED WITH THE\r\nCIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE\r\nCENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2310 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\n30-35 KT...AND GIVEN THE DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT\r\nSATELLITE TRENDS...30 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INTITAL INTENSITY.\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN\r\n48 HOURS.  THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW ERIN DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER OF ERIN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 290/10.  A SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED\r\nTHE LEFTWARD TURN AND SHOULD STEER ERIN ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY\r\nSOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOWING A DUE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK.  ASSUMING A WEAKER ERIN WOULD BECOME MORE STEERED\r\nBY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nSOUTH.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 20.7N  37.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 21.3N  39.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 21.9N  41.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 22.5N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 23.0N  46.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERIN CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE WITH THE CYCLONE\r\nONCE AGAIN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. ERIN IS\r\nON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A REMNANT LOW...AND THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...STABLE AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD PROMOTE ITS DEGENERATION TO OCCUR IN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...OR EVEN SOONER. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS\r\nOF ERIN DISSIPATING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITHIN A\r\nFEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT...SINCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BECOME VERTICALLY SHALLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 280/8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO COME IN\r\nLINE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 20.7N  38.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 21.0N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 21.4N  41.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 21.7N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 22.0N  46.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erin","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 18 2013\r\n\r\nERIN CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A SMALL PATCH OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION LOCATED OVER 150 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE CENTER\r\nSINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED...\r\nPERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 30 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN\r\nHOSTILE TO REGENERATION...WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING\r\nPERSISTENTLY STRONG SHEAR AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS...OR SOONER.  \r\n\r\nERIN IS MOVING WESTWARD...OR 260/9...WITHIN THE MODERATE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODELS SHOWS THIS MOTION OR A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WESTWARD\r\nMOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON\r\nTHE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 20.5N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 20.5N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 20.5N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 20.5N  44.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 20.5N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Erin","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052013\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013\r\n \r\nERIN HAS LACKED DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 120 N MI OF ITS CENTER FOR\r\nOVER 12 HOURS...AND NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHEREFORE...ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY DRY LOW- TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR\r\nIN THE PATH OF THE REMNANT LOW WHICH SHOULD DISCOURAGE ATTEMPTS AT\r\nREGENERATION.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST...OR 260/7...WITHIN\r\nTHE TRADEWIND FLOW.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES ITS IDENTITY IN A FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERN SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 20.4N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 20.2N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 20.0N  43.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 19.7N  45.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 19.4N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013\r\n400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013\r\n \r\nANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM\r\nVERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED\r\nENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nPLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. \r\nTHERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. \r\nWEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH\r\nTHE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nDISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.  THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nAREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE GUIDANCE\r\nDOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT\r\nTHE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 19.5N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 19.9N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 20.4N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 21.1N  99.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernand","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-08-25 23:00:00","Key":"AL062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013\r\n600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR\r\nSURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40\r\nKT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF\r\n1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND\r\nMAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON\r\nTHE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN\r\nUNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A\r\nSLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE\r\nTO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE\r\nBEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE\r\nORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED\r\nINTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2300Z 19.2N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 19.5N  96.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 20.1N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 20.9N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernand","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT...AND MEXICAN COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS SACV4 AND VERV4\r\nIN VERACRUZ HARBOR HAVE REPORTED 10-METER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT\r\nAND 44 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THAT WIND DATA...THE INTENSITY OF\r\nFERNAND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN A FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY\r\nBE ONGOING BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE REPORTS AND A RECENT\r\nBURST OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/08 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY\r\nON MODEL GUIDANCE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nFERNAND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES PARALLEL TO\r\nRATHER THAN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL\r\nMOUNTAIN RANGE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FERNAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS\r\nTHE VERACRUZ METROPOLITAN AREA TONIGHT AND BE INLAND BY 0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF\r\nVERACRUZ AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH FERNAND.  THESE RAINS COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 19.3N  96.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 19.7N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 20.3N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 21.0N  99.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 48H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernand","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013\r\n400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013\r\n \r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. \r\nWIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL\r\nOCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT.\r\n\r\nWHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING\r\nINLAND.  THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED\r\nTROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST.  SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nFARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY\r\nA LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND.  THIS WOULD\r\nRESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.  THESE\r\nRAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 19.8N  96.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 20.4N  98.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 21.1N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fernand","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013\r\n1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND\r\nOVER EASTERN MEXICO.  ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A\r\nLARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN\r\nDISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO \r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT.  THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.   \r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER\r\nEASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 20.3N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 20.9N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 21.4N  99.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Fernand","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062013\r\n400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nOF FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM.  THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 20.6N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE DATA FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT THE\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS JUST ENOUGH OF A\r\nCIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT BASED ON A 41 KT\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WIND FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT REMAINS FAR ENOUGH\r\nAWAY FROM HISPANIOLA.  ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST DUE\r\nTO THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED INITIAL STATE OF THE DEPRESSION.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...A COMBINATION OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND\r\nPOSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION COULD SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.  THE\r\nWIND SPEED PREDICTION ALSO FITS THE GENERAL IDEA OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...WHICH SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRUGGLE AFTER IT\r\nLEAVES THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  SOME INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS DUE TO\r\nBAROCLINIC PROCESSES...IS POSSIBLE AT LONG RANGE AS THE CYCLONE\r\nINTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING ROUGHLY 305/8 AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC OCEAN.  A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE RIDGE TO BREAK ALONG ABOUT 70W...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD IN TWO OR THREE DAYS. ONE\r\nCOMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE LARGER DISTURBANCE LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED\r\nMILES NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE INTERACTION OF THESE TWO\r\nFEATURES MAKES THIS TRACK FORECAST MORE UNCERTAIN THAN WOULD BE\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE OVERALL MODEL SPREAD.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NOT TOO\r\nFAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS EARLY ON...AND THEN IS A BIT SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT TIME...PUTTING LESS WEIGHT ON THE\r\nNORTHWARD GFDL/HWRF SOLUTIONS.  \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 16.5N  66.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 17.4N  67.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 18.6N  68.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 19.7N  68.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 20.9N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 23.1N  69.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 25.3N  68.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 29.0N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SMALL AREA\r\nOF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER\r\nWHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXCELLENT WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SEEN IN WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT...AND THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE.\r\n \r\nDROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...\r\nWITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D\r\nRADAR. THIS TILTED STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nBY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nDROPSONDE DATA SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE\r\nAROUND GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED\r\nSTATE OF THE CIRCULATION...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION...AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OF\r\nGABRIELLE...NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nAIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSUMING\r\nTHAT GABRIELLE SURVIVES...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN\r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW MUCH OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH GIVEN\r\nTHE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AFTER\r\nGABRIELLE MOVES NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE GLOBAL\r\nHAWK DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST IT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE\r\nCENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/7. THE\r\nSYNOPTIC-SCALE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS GABRIELLE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AHEAD\r\nOF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS\r\nAND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING\r\nTHIS PERIOD. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 17.0N  66.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 17.8N  67.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 19.0N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 20.1N  69.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 21.2N  69.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 23.3N  69.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 25.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 29.5N  63.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT...\r\nSURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS \r\nBEEN ANY IMPROVEMENT OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...MICROWAVE OR\r\nDOPPLER RADAR DATA DO NOT SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT OF AN INNER\r\nCORE...ALTHOUGH RADAR IMAGES SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CENTER\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOCATION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF\r\nTHERE IS A REFORMATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER. A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE LATER THIS MORNING WILL HELP US TO DETERMINE IF THIS IS THE\r\nCASE. SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AS WELL AS OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...CIMSS...ARE 2.5 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35\r\nKNOTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA\r\nNEAR THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. MOST\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A WEAK CYCLONE FOR A FEW DAYS WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF WHICH DISSIPATES GABRIELLE JUST NORTH OF\r\nHISPANIOLA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nWHICH IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ALONG THE FORECAST PATH OF\r\nGABRIELLE...THE DISSIPATION OPTION OF THE ECMWF IS NOT OUT OF THE\r\nQUESTION. AT THIS TIME...THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS SHOWING SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING GIVING CREDIT TO THE\r\nOTHER MODELS.   \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SURFACE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON IR IMAGES...IT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320\r\nDEGREES AT 7 KNOTS.  GABRIELLE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING\r\nFLOW SOUTH OF A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. IN A DAY OR TWO...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nFROM THE UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...CAUSING\r\nGABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE OPEN ATLANTIC. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nNOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n  \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS\r\nOF PUERTO RICO AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 17.5N  66.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 18.5N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 19.7N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 20.9N  69.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 21.8N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 24.0N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 27.0N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 31.5N  62.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013\r\n\r\nA COMBINATION OF SATELLITE...SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR...RAWINSONDE...\r\nAND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE HAS BECOME VERY\r\nDISORGANIZED.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHICH IS POORLY DEFINED...IS\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF THE MONA PASSAGE ABOUT 130 N MI FROM THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER THAT IS LOCATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. \r\nTHIS STRUCTURE MAY BE DUE TO SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE TOO LIGHT TO HAVE SUCH A DRASTIC\r\nEFFECT ON THE CYCLONE.  NONE OF THE DATA CURRENTLY SUGGEST TROPICAL\r\nSTORM FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING...SO GABRIELLE IS DOWNGRADED TO A\r\n30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...SO THERE IS STILL A\r\nCHANCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REFORMING IN THAT AREA.  IF THAT\r\nDOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS\r\nWITH THE TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ENCOUNTERS\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE REVISED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nIN 24 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY THEREAFTER.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/8.  LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW THIS GENERAL MOTION TO\r\nCONTINUE UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES\r\nLONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST IT\r\nWILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.\r\n\r\nA HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 17.5N  68.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 18.3N  68.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 19.6N  69.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013\r\n\r\nGABRIELLE IS BEING GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT\r\nTHIS TIME...AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION TO KEEP IT FROM BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS VERY BADLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nNOW SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER BY ABOUT 180 N MI.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT BASED ON EARLIER\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1010 MB BASED\r\nON MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.\r\n \r\nWHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...THERE ARE NO\r\nSIGNS AT THIS TIME THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS TRYING TO RE-FORM\r\nTHERE.  IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE\r\nTERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER 24\r\nHOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA DURING THE\r\nNEXT 2-4 DAYS.  WHETHER THIS WILL VERIFY...AND WHETHER THE LOW\r\nDEVELOPS FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE OR FROM ANOTHER DISTURBANCE\r\nTO ITS NORTHEAST...IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8.  LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nOR NORTH-NORTHWEST TO OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  \r\n \r\nA HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 18.2N  68.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 19.2N  69.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 20.8N  70.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL\r\nCIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE\r\nLANDMASS OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD\r\nCYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND\r\nHISPANIOLA...HOWEVER THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL\r\nTO THE EAST...OVER AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS. \r\n\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE MOVING GENERALLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND\r\nINTERACTING WITH OR POSSIBLY MERGING WITH THE LARGE AREA OF\r\nDISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER\r\nANTILLES. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OR\r\nSOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE\r\nFORMATION OF THIS LOW ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...THE REMNANTS OF\r\nGABRIELLE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND USERS SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS\r\nFROM THE NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN FOR MORE\r\nINFORMATION ON THAT HAZARD. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 19.0N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AND PERSISTED OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS\r\nCONTAINED SOME 34- TO 36-KT WIND VECTORS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER\r\nAND OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED MORE THAN 100 NMI\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING TO AT LEAST\r\n31 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...ADVISORIES\r\nHAVE BEEN RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO RECONNOITER THE CYCLONE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT\r\nLOCATION AND STRENGTH OF GABRIELLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10 KT...WHICH IS BASED MAINLY ON\r\nLIMITED MICROWAVE FIXES. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nSLOWING DOWN DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nAROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A RETROGRADING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ON THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER OR NEAR BERMUDA IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO LIFT OUT\r\nAND ACCELERATE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BUT\r\nOVER 28-29C SSTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW\r\nFOR SOME ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE INTENSITY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF BY 48 HOURS AS SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nAPPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...GABRIELLE WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER SUB-25C SSTS AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HOURS WHEN WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nWILL BE LESS THAN 20C. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL ICON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 29.6N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 31.1N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 32.7N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 33.7N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 34.5N  66.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 37.7N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 46.8N  58.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/0600Z 56.5N  41.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES TO FEATURE VERY COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS IN A CDO TYPE FEATURE. MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS\r\nSTRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 25 KT OR SO OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM BY UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT\r\nLOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS GABRIELLE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C WITH\r\nMODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING\r\nAND AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 96\r\nHOURS. GABRIELLE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...AS THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY\r\nSITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE FORWARD MOTION OF GABRIELLE WILL SLOW AS\r\nTHE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GABRIELLE\r\nWILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING\r\nINTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IN 3-4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TRENDS A\r\nLITTLE SLOWER AT DAYS 3 AND 4...LYING BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND\r\nTHE SLOWER TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 30.6N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 31.9N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 33.1N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 34.0N  65.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 35.2N  66.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 39.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 49.0N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-09-10 17:30:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n130 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nA PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM 1342Z AND 1436Z INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE\r\nIS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. BOTH PASSES SHOWED SEVERAL\r\n45-KT WIND RETRIEVALS...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS\r\nSPECIAL ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nAT 12 AND 24 HOURS TO 50 KT BASED ON THE INCREASE IN THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. THE ANALYZED 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nOUTWARD BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA...AND THEIR FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nMODIFIED AS WELL TO REFLECT THE LARGER WIND FIELD. AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO\r\nPROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nNO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY. \r\n\r\nNOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 200 PM\r\nAST/1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1730Z 30.9N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 31.9N  64.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 33.1N  65.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 34.0N  65.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 35.2N  66.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 39.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 49.0N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING\r\nGABRIELLE FOUND PEAK SFMR WINDS OF 45-50 KT NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER ON THEIR FIRST PASS THROUGH THE STORM...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB IS BASED ON A DROPSONDE FROM THE\r\nAIRCRAFT. GABRIELLE HAS BEEN ABLE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY DESPITE THE\r\nPRESENCE OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS EXPOSED THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. WHILE\r\nMODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR EVEN INCREASE OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. THIS SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED\r\nBY MARGINAL SSTS AND AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IN ABOUT 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/09. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nOVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AS GABRIELLE IS TUGGED WESTWARD BY A\r\nWEAKENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED EAST OF FLORIDA.\r\nAT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND...AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS\r\nEXPECTED AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH\r\nAMERICA. THE TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nOVERALL SCENARIO...HOWEVER MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT THIS CYCLE. OVERALL...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND AFTERWARD HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT...BUT STILL LIES EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 31.5N  64.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 32.6N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 33.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 34.3N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 35.7N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 42.0N  63.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 52.0N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE HAS BECOME DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER THIS EVENING...DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  RADAR IMAGES FROM BERMUDA HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN\r\nTRACKING THE PROGRESS OF THE STORM THIS EVENING.  THE RADAR DATA\r\nSHOW THAT GABRIELLE HAS DECELERATED AND THAT SOME SHALLOW\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 50 KT...WHICH IS\r\nBASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF 35\r\nTO 45 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT WEATHER STATIONS ON BERMUDA.  ANOTHER\r\nAIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/7 KT. GABRIELLE SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF\r\nFLORIDA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW OFF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AND\r\nSTRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nGABRIELLE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE. THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...THE UPDATED\r\nNHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nGABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER BUT WITHIN \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND \r\nTHE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY LOWER.  IF ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CYCLONE...\r\nGABRIELLE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 32.0N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 32.8N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 33.6N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 34.5N  66.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 36.3N  66.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 44.5N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 54.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GABRIELLE IS COMPRISED OF A SWIRL\r\nOF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ONGOING AFFECT OF 15-20 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS...\r\nRECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT...AND OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE\r\nDECREASED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 45 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TO THE LEFT SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/7.  THIS IS PARTLY DUE TO AN UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF GABRIELLE AND A STRENGTHENING\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD STEER\r\nGABRIELLE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO RECURVE ON THE EASTERN SIDE\r\nOF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  WHILE THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...IT HAS SHIFTED QUITE A BIT TO\r\nTHE LEFT/WEST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nALSO SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DURING THAT TIME...BUT STILL LIES TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nGABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM SEA SURACE TEMPERATURES\r\nFOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CALL FOR\r\nCONTINUED STRONG SHEAR...WITH THE UKMET...NAVGEM...AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nFORECASTING THE CYCLONE TO DECAY TO A TROUGH DURING THIS TIME. \r\nAFTER THAT...WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MERGE\r\nWITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE GFS SCENARIO THAT GABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE UNTIL IT MERGES WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE NEW FORECAST A\r\nLITTLE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  HOWEVER...AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE DECAYS TO A REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A LACK OF CONVECTION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 32.5N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 33.1N  66.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 33.7N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 34.7N  67.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 37.2N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 46.5N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE IS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...WITH A SMALL\r\nAREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE 15-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE. THE INTITAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY\r\nLOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS MODERATE SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES...BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN AT 48 HOURS AS AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION. BY 72 HOURS...GABRIELLE SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nAND BE ABSORBED OR DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ALTERNATIVELY...IF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES ENTIRELY...GABRIELLE COULD BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IS\r\nNOW DRIFTING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 3 KT. HOWEVER THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DEVELOPING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF GABRIELLE AND A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.\r\nRECURVATURE IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE\r\nLEFT THIS CYCLE AND SO HAS THE NHC TRACK WHICH NOW LIES ALONG...BUT\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER THAN...THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 32.5N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 33.1N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 33.8N  67.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 35.5N  67.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 38.6N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 48.5N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK DATA-T NUMBER FROM TAFB. LITTLE CHANGE\r\nIN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS MODERATE\r\nSHEAR CONTINUES...BUT SOME INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN FROM 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SOME BAROCLINIC SUPPORT\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION. GABRIELLE SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND MAY BE DISSIPATED ENTIRELY BY THEN...HOWEVER A 72-HOUR\r\nPOINT WAS PROVIDED IN THIS FORECAST FOR CONTINUITY.\r\nALTERNATIVELY...IF DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES ENTIRELY...GABRIELLE\r\nCOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AT ANY TIME DURING THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE HAS MOVED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/04. THIS MOTION IS PROBABLY DUE\r\nTO THE SHALLOW CYCLONE NOT FEELING THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW\r\nCOMING FROM A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INSIST ON A NORTHWARD TURN SOON...WITH A\r\nMOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN\r\nEASTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  DUE TO THE WESTWARD MOTION\r\nTODAY...AND A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TOWARD\r\nTHE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES ABOUT A DEGREE WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST BY 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 32.8N  66.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 33.2N  67.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 34.4N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 37.1N  67.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 41.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 51.5N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GABRIELLE HAS DISSIPATED \r\nAGAIN THIS EVENING...LEAVING THE CYCLONE AS A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL\r\nCLOUDS...EXCEPT FOR ONE SMALL THUNDERSTORM THAT HAS RECENTLY\r\nDEVELOPED WELL EAST OF THE CENTER.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...\r\nAND BASED ON THESE DATA THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE REMAINS WITHIN AN AREA OF MODERATE\r\nWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRY MID-LEVEL AIR.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AS GABRIELLE INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SOME\r\nBAROCLINIC FORCING AND SHOULD ALSO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BECOME\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 2 DAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE ABSORBED\r\nBY A FRONT OVER NOVA SCOTIA SHORTLY THEREAFTER...HOWEVER A 72-HOUR\r\nPOINT WAS PROVIDED ONCE AGAIN FOR FORECAST CONTINUITY.  WITH THE\r\nLACK OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS\r\nTHAT GABRIELLE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY OR\r\nBECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AS IT BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY AS IT IS STEERED AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  AFTER 24 HOURS...GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO AND THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 33.0N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 33.7N  67.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 35.7N  67.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 39.4N  66.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 44.4N  62.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 54.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n\r\nA NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF\r\nGABRIELLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 30 KT...AND AN EARLIER OSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED\r\n25-30 KT WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  ALTHOUGH GABRIELLE REMAINS\r\nSHEARED...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR HAS DECREASED\r\nTO 10-15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS SHOW A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD\r\nFRONT MOVING INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST A LOW TO FORM ON THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS\r\nEVOLUTION SHOULD CREATE A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND ALLOW GABRIELLE TO RECURVE INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...CALLING FOR A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION TOWARD\r\nATLANTIC CANADA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK IS AGAIN AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE TRICKY.  ON ONE SIDE...THE\r\nDECREASED SHEAR...24 HOURS BEFORE CROSSING THE NORTH WALL OF THE\r\nGULF STREAM...AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A BAROCLINIC TROUGH\r\nSUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH THE NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM IN 36-48\r\nHOURS...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE\r\nCYCLONE DECAYING TO A TROUGH IN 36 HOURS OR LESS.  ON THE PREMISE\r\nTHAT THE PROS WILL OUTWEIGH THE CONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE\r\nALTERNATIVE SCENARIO REMAINS THAT GABRIELLE COULD DECAY TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW OR TROUGH AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS WILL QUICKLY\r\nBE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 33.5N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 34.4N  67.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 36.9N  67.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 41.2N  65.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 46.7N  61.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED\r\nNEAR THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE\r\nCENTER AND THE CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND TO THE EAST...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS ARE UP TO 35\r\nKNOTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT...AND CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE REMOVED AGAIN. ON THAT\r\nBASIS...GABRIELLE COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nAS IT MOVES NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AHEAD\r\nOF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 33.9N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 35.0N  67.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 38.0N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 43.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS STILL PRODUCING\r\nINTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nEARLIER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A FEW 35-KNOT WIND\r\nVECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THIS VALUE IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND GABRIELLE WILL LIKELY\r\nBE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nGABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AHEAD\r\nOF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.\r\nTHIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 34.4N  67.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 36.3N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 40.5N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nONCE AGAIN DEEP CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISAPPEARED NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF GABRIELLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT THIS COULD\r\nBE GENEROUS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR\r\nPERHAPS A LITTLE SOONER.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 9 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES. GABRIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 35.1N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 38.0N  66.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 43.8N  64.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF\r\nGABRIELLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES. AN\r\nASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30\r\nKT RANGE...AND ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 30 KT OR LOWER. BASED ON THESE DATA...GABRIELLE IS\r\nONCE AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nGABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 015/15. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WHEN IT\r\nBECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA.\r\nGABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nBEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW DISSIPATION OCCURRING EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 36.5N  67.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 40.5N  65.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nAMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE VERY\r\nLITTLE...IF ANY...NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nSINCE THAT TIME...REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NORTH WINDS ARE\r\nPRESENT.  HOWEVER...A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS AT LEAST MAKES IT PLAUSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS\r\nCLOSED...AND SO GABRIELLE IS BEING HELD AS A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS IS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF GABRIELLE HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/20. ALL OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nAND CANADA.  THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GABRIELLE WILL OPEN UP INTO\r\nA TROUGH LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONSERVATIVELY SHOWS A 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...GABRIELLE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET ABSORBED BY AN\r\nAPPROACHING COLD FRONT.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 39.1N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 43.2N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Gabrielle","Adv":22,"Date":"2013-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072013\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nTHE STORM-MOTION-RELATIVE CENTER OF GABRIELLE BECAME A LITTLE EASIER\r\nTO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA THAT INDICATED THE\r\nCIRCULATION WAS NO LONGER CLOSED. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ARE MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES AND CANADA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE BEING\r\nABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE GALE\r\nCONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY\r\nAND TOMORROW.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 42.0N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-09-06 18:30:00","Key":"AL082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082013\r\n130 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013\r\n\r\nCORRECTED SPELLING OF TAMAULIPAS IN THE LAST PARAGRAPH\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVED MORE\r\nSLOWLY THAN ORIGINALLY PREDICTED...AND THIS ALLOWED MORE TIME FOR\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO BECOME ORGANIZED BEFORE REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nWITH THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE BANDING NOTED TODAY...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNOW CLASSIFYABLE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NO ADDITONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER IS NOW MOVING INLAND NEAR\r\nTAMPICO MEXICO. FROM THIS TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND\r\nDECAY TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND\r\nDISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 36 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/5.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STEER IT GENERALLY\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE MEXICAN\r\nSTATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS...ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1830Z 22.3N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 22.1N  98.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 21.9N  99.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082013\r\n400 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL IN THE TAMPICO MEXICO\r\nAREA AROUND 1800 UTC.  WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT WINDS FROM THE MEXICAN COASTAL STATIONS...TAMPICO\r\nREPORTED A PRESSURE OF NEAR 1009 MB AS THE CENTER PASSED OVER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT SINCE A LARGE AMOUNT OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS STILL OVER WATER.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL\r\nIT DISSIPATES COMPLETELY IN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 250/5.  A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STEER IT\r\nGENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION IS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE MEXICAN\r\nSTATES OF VERACRUZ AND TAMAULIPAS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 22.2N  98.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 21.9N  98.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082013\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 06 2013\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR INITIAL MOTION \r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND. THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF\r\nCONVECTION IS GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY EARLY SATURDAY AND DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 24 HOURS\r\nOVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235/07. A\r\nGENERAL SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nAS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. \r\n \r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAIN OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ...TAMAULIPAS AND SAN\r\nLUIS POTOSI...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD\r\nSLIDES.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 21.7N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 21.2N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082013\r\n400 AM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS WEAKENED AND IS NOW A REMNANT LOW LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER\r\nTHE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12\r\nHOURS OR SO AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND. \r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES\r\nOF VERACRUZ...TAMAULIPAS AND SAN LUIS POTOSI...ALONG WITH THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 21.4N  99.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 21.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BETWEEN THE\r\nCAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA HAS DEVELOPED\r\nENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T1.5 FROM SAB.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE\r\nTO A LITTLE BIT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/9 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR\r\nTHE AZORES...AND THE CURRENT WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE\r\nANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW DEVELOPS NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AND A RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD\r\nFROM AFRICA.  THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO TURN RATHER\r\nSHARPLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AFTER 48 HOURS AND CONTINUE THAT\r\nTRAJECTORY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SURPRISINGLY...\r\nTHE LARGEST SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE OCCURS WITHIN THE FIRST\r\n48 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE MODELS SEEMS TO CONVERGE BY 72 HOURS.  THE\r\nNHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nA MOIST AIR MASS...WARM WATERS...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN AT LEAST GRADUALLY DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...MAINLY THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...ARE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION RATE AFTER 24 HOURS.  SHIPS AND LGEM HAVE TENDED TO\r\nHAVE A HIGH BIAS THIS HURRICANE SEASON...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS KEPT A BIT LOWER.  THE FORECAST DOES...HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST...AND THE UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW BIG THE WIND FIELD\r\nWILL GET ONCE THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 13.1N  20.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 13.2N  22.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 13.5N  24.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 13.9N  26.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 14.5N  27.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 17.5N  29.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 21.0N  31.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 23.5N  32.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 08 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS INCREASED OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION THIS EVENING.  RECENT ASCAT DATA WAS EXTREMELY HELPFUL\r\nIN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS STILL LOCATED NEAR\r\nTHE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO SOME\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE ASCAT DATA AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nWIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 30 KT.   \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW...CURRENTLY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nTO DROP SOUTHWARD...CREATING A BREAK IN THE RIDGE ALONG 30W. THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN ON THAT GENERAL HEADING THROUGH\r\nMUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS...BUT AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THERE IS A BIT MORE SPREAD THAN NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nCYCLE. THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nNORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK ALONG OR EAST OF 30W...WHILE THE\r\nECMWF SHOWS A FASTER NORTHWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THESE\r\nDIFFERENCES AND REMAINS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE\r\nDEPRESSION WILL BE IN A MOIST AIRMASS AND OVER WARM WATERS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE UPDATED NHC\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS\r\nARE LIKELY TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 13.2N  21.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 13.4N  23.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 13.7N  25.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 14.2N  27.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 15.2N  28.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 18.5N  30.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 22.0N  31.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 23.7N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...DEEP CONVECTION WITH A LARGE AREA OF\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C HAS DEVELOPED MAINLY WEST THROUGH NORTH\r\nOF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH A FEW STRONG CELLS HAVING RECENTLY\r\nFORMED VERY NEAR THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 34-KT ADT ESTIMATE. AS A\r\nRESULT...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED HUMBERTO. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nGOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHEAST WHERE SOME MODEST\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS RESTRICTING THE OUTFLOW.\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO IS MOVING AT 280/10 KT...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nTHIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...THE GLOBAL\r\nAND REGIONAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nOVER THE IBERIAN PENINSULA DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CANARY\r\nISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND ERODING THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM THE AZORES SOUTHEASTWARD TO\r\nWESTERN AFRICA. THIS RADICAL CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO MAKE A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST IN 36-48 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT MOTION THROUGH 96\r\nHOURS...AFTER WHICH THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RE-BUILD TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE AND TURN HUMBERTO WESTWARD OVER HIGHER LATITUDES AND\r\nCOOLER WATER. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A SIGNIFICANT\r\nSHIFT TO THE EAST THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT AS A RESULT...BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE RIGHT AS\r\nSOME OF THE MORE RELIABLE MODELS LIKE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSSE.\r\n \r\nMODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF ABOUT 12 KT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF\r\nMODELS TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 8 KT AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH AT LEAST\r\n72 HOURS. SUCH WEAK SHEAR CONDITIONS EXISTING WITHIN A VERY MOIST\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER ABOVE AVERAGE SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C WOULD TEND\r\nTO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. IN FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS DEVELOP AN IMPRESSIVE 200 MB CYCLONIC OUTDRAFT PATTERN BY 72\r\nHOURS...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A MAJOR HURRICANE. AS A RESULT...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT 72\r\nHOURS...SIMILAR TO THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON\r\nTHE CONSERVATIVE SIDE SINCE HUMBERTO WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C\r\nSSTS AT THAT TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE THAN INDICATED PRIOR TO THE 72-HOUR TIME PERIOD. BY\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS\r\nSHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 13.4N  22.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 13.6N  24.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 14.1N  26.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 14.9N  27.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 16.2N  28.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 20.0N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 23.5N  30.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 25.2N  33.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS AN\r\nELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY TWO ASCAT\r\nPASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO\r\nINDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT.  THIS\r\nESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH AND\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE 280/10 KT.  THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...GIVING WAY TO TWO CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL\r\nDEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY DAY\r\n3.  AFTER THAT TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS NEAR THE\r\nAZORES...FORCING HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY\r\n5.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS...FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND HWRF INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH.  THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO ABATE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR\r\nSUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE\r\nMOST AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT IS COUNTERED BY THE\r\nHWRF...GFDL...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH EITHER DO NOT OR\r\nJUST BARELY MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL\r\nLIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS JUST A TAD HIGHER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS UNCHANGED FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 13.6N  24.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 13.9N  25.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 14.5N  27.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 15.5N  28.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 17.3N  29.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 21.5N  30.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 24.5N  31.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 26.0N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nHUMBERTO IS SHOWING MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING...AND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER IS BECOMING MORE EMBEDDED BENEATH THE COLD CLOUD TOPS. \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND\r\nT3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB...AND THE LATEST SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS 47 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN MOVING A BIT FASTER TO THE WEST...AND\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/11 KT.  THE MID-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nCONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING HUMBERTO TO\r\nTURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...ANOTHER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE AZORES AND\r\nFORCE HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY 5.  THE\r\nNHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST AND\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS DUE TO AN OVERALL\r\nEASTWARD TREND IN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING TREND...AND CONDITIONS\r\nFAVOR THIS INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nCYCLES...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS SHOWING THE MOST\r\nSTRENGTHENING AND THE HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BARELY BRINGING\r\nHUMBERTO TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nTHEREFORE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A PEAK\r\nIN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS BEFORE HUMBERTO\r\nREACHES COLDER WATER AND CONTENDS WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. \r\nTHEREFORE...ALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 13.7N  25.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 14.1N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 14.8N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 16.1N  28.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 18.2N  29.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 22.5N  30.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 25.5N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 26.5N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF HUMBERTO REMAINS NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE\r\nMASS OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTERLY SHEAR REMAINS OVER THE CYCLONE...ALTHOUGH RECENT\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS BEGINNING TO \r\nEXPAND OUTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STORM. THE ASCAT\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 50\r\nKT...AND THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAS ALSO\r\nEXPANDED SINCE THIS MORNING.  \r\n  \r\nSATELLITE CENTER FIXES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO\r\nIS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER TODAY...WITH A MOTION OF\r\n285/9 KT.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN VERY SOON AS A COUPLE OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOWS MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nHUMBERTO TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE\r\nWILL REBUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES AND THIS SHOULD TURN\r\nHUMBERTO BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.  \r\n\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER HUMBERTO SHOULD DECREASE\r\nSOON...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS HUMBERTO TO HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL IT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nQUITE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE \r\nSIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 13.9N  25.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 14.4N  27.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.4N  28.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 16.9N  28.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 19.1N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 23.0N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 25.2N  32.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 26.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE ASSOCIATED BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAND MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE CENTER...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR IS DECREASING OVER THE CYCLONE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH T3.5 AND UW-CIMSS ADT VALUES ARE ABOUT\r\nTHE SAME. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nEXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS\r\nABRUPT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST STORM MOTION IS DUE TO A BREAK DOWN\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND\r\nANOTHER LOW BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A SHARP\r\nWESTWARD TURN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN THE RIDGE\r\nBECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT\r\nGIVEN THE PRONOUNCED HEADING CHANGES...AND THE LATEST OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 36\r\nHOURS WHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND WITHIN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LOW WIND SHEAR AND HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DRIER AIR AND SOUTHERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO. THESE UNFAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nSYSTEM TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 14.4N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 15.0N  27.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 16.2N  28.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 17.9N  28.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 20.0N  29.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 23.7N  30.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 25.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 26.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO HAS STOPPED INTENSIFYING...\r\nAT LEAST FOR THE MOMENT.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWED THAT THE\r\nSTORM HAD A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE OVERNIGHT...BUT THAT FEATURE HAS\r\nSINCE DISSOLVED AND HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A LARGER BUT BROKEN INNER\r\nBAND OF CONVECTION.  IN SOME SENSE...THIS SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT...EXCEPT THAT HUMBERTO IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO HAS MAINTAINED A MOTION OF 295/8 KT...BUT THE STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY DUE TO A WEAKENING\r\nAZORES HIGH TO THE NORTH.  TWO DEEP-LAYERED LOWS ARE FORECAST TO\r\nDEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE FEATURES...ALONG WITH A RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTH AFRICA...SHOULD STEER HUMBERTO\r\nNORTHWARD IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD\r\nNORTH OF HUMBERTO BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nWESTWARD BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS\r\nFORECAST IS HIGH SINCE THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WERE\r\nREQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.\r\n\r\nONCE THE INNER CORE OF HUMBERTO REORGANIZES...THERE IS A WINDOW OF\r\nABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR INCREASES AND THE STORM REACHES A MORE HOSTILE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HUMBERTO\r\nREACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY...BUT THE FORECAST PEAK\r\nINTENSITY IN A DAY OR TWO HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD JUST A BIT\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 14.6N  27.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.3N  28.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 16.6N  29.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 18.5N  29.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 20.5N  29.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 23.5N  31.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 24.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 25.0N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nHAS BEEN EXPANDING WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T3.5/55 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 60 KT.  THE MAIN\r\nIMMEDIATE NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE\r\nDRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF HUMBERTO THAT MAY\r\nBE GETTING INTO THE INNER CORE...BUT OTHERWISE LOW VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAND WARM WATERS FAVOR AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION FOR ANOTHER 36\r\nHOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...HUMBERTO WILL BE STRADDLING THE 26C\r\nSST ISOTHERM...BUT IT WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\n20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  WEAKENING IS THEREFORE\r\nANTICIPATED AFTER DAY 2.  THE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE\r\nON A PEAK INTENSITY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 70 AND 80 KT...WITH THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOT NEARLY AS AGGRESSIVE AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. \r\nSUBSEQUENTLY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/7\r\nKT.  THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS NOW WEAKENING...AND THE\r\nEVOLVING PATTERN WILL ALLOW HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HOURS. \r\nTHEN...JUST AS SHARPLY AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE TURNING NORTHWARD...\r\nIT WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD BY DAY 5 WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE\r\nREBUILDS NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nBE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 15.0N  28.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 15.9N  28.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 17.6N  29.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 19.6N  29.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 21.5N  29.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 24.0N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 24.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 24.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 10 2013\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS BEEN SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY THIS EVENING IN\r\nHUMBERTO...BUT HAS NOT PERSISTED.  MOREOVER...THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BEEN SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC AND IS NOT MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST CONTINUOUSLY.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB HAVE REMAINED THE SAME OVER THE LAST SIX\r\nHOURS...AVERAGING AT 60 KT...WHILE ADT AND CIMSS AMSU SUGGEST A\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER CYCLONE.  IN DEFERENCE TO THE SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ANALYSES AND THE INTERMITTENT EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 60 KT.  WHILE NO NEW ASCAT OBSERVATIONS WERE AVAILABLE...A\r\n2240Z CIRA AMSU SIZE ANALYSIS SUGGESTED A SLIGHTLY LARGER RADIUS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHICH HAS BEEN SO ADJUSTED.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO SHOULD STILL REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY...AS IT HAS ABOUT\r\n24-36 HOURS TO GO WHILE TRAVERSING LUKEWARM WATER AND AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  BUT IN ABOUT 36-48\r\nHOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DUE TO\r\nHUMBERTO APPROACHING CLOSER TO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE\r\nAT THE SAME TIME THE SSTS SHOULD DROP TO A COOLISH 25-26C. \r\nGRADUAL...IF NOT RAPID...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND\r\n4.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS RATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NHC\r\nPREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS MOVING AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD 315 DEGREES...PRIMARILY DUE\r\nTO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST.  WITH THE\r\nRIDGE WEAKENING...THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD IN ABOUT A DAY\r\nAND CONTINUE THIS MOTION FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  AROUND DAY\r\n3...HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN AGAIN...THIS TIME TOWARD THE WEST...AS A\r\nSTRONGER DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN NEAR THE AZORES.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...AND IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH\r\n48 HOURS AND THEN SLIGHTLY SOUTH THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.4N  28.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 16.4N  28.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 18.3N  29.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 20.2N  29.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 21.7N  29.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 23.5N  32.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 24.0N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 24.5N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n \r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH HUMBERTO DURING THE\r\nLAST FEW HOURS...WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nCYCLONE ALSO BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.  THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 6Z\r\nSUPPORTED ANYTHING FROM 55-65 KT...AND GIVEN THE NOTABLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL INCREASE\r\nIN ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL WINDS ARE RAISED TO 65 KT.  HUMBERTO\r\nHAS ABOUT A DAY TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND\r\nCOOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND.  IN A FEW DAYS...\r\nALTHOUGH WATER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE...STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nAND ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE WELL\r\nCLUSTERED...SO THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO APPEARS TO BE TURNING TO THE RIGHT...NOW MOVING 330/7.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH SOON AND ACCELERATE SOME WHILE IT\r\nMOVES BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...HUMBERTO IS\r\nLIKELY TO TAKE A HARD LEFT TURN DUE TO IT RUNNING AGAINST A RATHER\r\nSTOUT RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC.  WITH HUMBERTO\r\nBECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IN THE LONGER RANGE...IT MAKES SENSE\r\nTO STAY ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE GIVEN THE\r\nSTRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...STAYING EQUATORWARD OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0900Z 16.0N  28.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 17.2N  29.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 19.0N  29.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 20.9N  29.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 22.5N  30.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 23.8N  33.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 24.2N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 25.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN REVEALING AN INTERMITTENT RAGGED EYE...\r\nWHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED AT THE MID-LEVELS ON A SSMI/S PASS EARLY\r\nTHIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BEEN APPARENT WITHIN A SMALL CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST WHICH IS SURROUNDED BY A COUPLE OF DISTINCT\r\nCYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 4.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN HAVE REACHED 4.4 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.\r\nON THIS BASIS..THE INITIAL INTENSITY AS BEEN SET AT 70 KNOTS.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE IT\r\nREACHES COOLER WATER AND INCREASING SHEAR IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AS\r\nDIAGNOSED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. \r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN AS INDICATED IN THE NHC\r\nFORECAST. \r\n\r\nAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...HUMBERTO HAS MADE THE EXPECTED SHARP TURN\r\nTO THE NORTH...AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEEN STEERED BY THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL\r\nLOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND\r\nHUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND THIS IS THE GENERAL SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY\r\nPROVIDED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT\r\nSCENARIO AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS TRACK\r\nWILL KEEP HUMBERTO MOVING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WATERS FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/1500Z 16.7N  29.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 18.2N  29.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 20.0N  29.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 21.5N  30.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 23.0N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 24.0N  35.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 24.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 26.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON IN BOTH MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THE\r\nEYE...ALTHOUGH RAGGED AND INTERMITTENT...IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SMALL\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER PRIMARILY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND ON\r\nTHIS BASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75\r\nKNOTS. HUMBERTO HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE\r\nBEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR IN ABOUT A DAY.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR\r\n350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE\r\nSOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nAND A RIDGE OVER AFRICA. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE LOW TO WEAKEN AND HUMBERTO WILL ENCOUNTER\r\nSTRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE\r\nHUMBERTO TO MAKE A HARD LEFT TURN AND THIS SCENARIO IS UNANIMOUSLY\r\nSHOWN BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO WILL\r\nLINGER OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/2100Z 18.0N  29.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 19.5N  29.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 21.3N  29.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 22.8N  30.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 24.0N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 24.5N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 25.5N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 27.0N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 11 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF HUMBERTO IS EXHIBITING QUITE\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS WITH A SMALL EYE INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING.  DVORAK\r\nSUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT ABOUT \r\n75 KT...WHILE ADT IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND CIMSS AMSU SLIGHTLY LOWER. \r\nTHE INTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 75 KT.  A DIRECT HIT BY AN ASCAT\r\nSCATTEROMETER SATELLITE AT 2250Z PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THAT\r\nHUMBERTO IS LARGER IN ITS TROPICAL STORM AND 50-KT WIND RADII THAN\r\nEARLIER ESTIMATED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE CDO AND\r\nINDEPENDENT ANALYSES FROM CIRA AMSU SIZE VALUES.\r\n\r\nCURRENTLY...HUMBERTO HAS BEEN TRAVERSING OVER WATERS OF 26C AND\r\nTHROUGH AN ATMOSPHERE OF WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AS WELL AS\r\nMOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT HUMBERTO MAY BE\r\nAT ITS PEAK INTENSITY. AS HUMBERTO TRACKS NORTHWARD THEN WESTWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE WILL APPROACH A STRONG\r\nTROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL INDUCE\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR BEGINNING IN ABOUT\r\nA DAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nHOSTILE SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS SHOULD INDUCE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING.\r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSEST TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSEST TO THE DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL MODEL\r\nTHEREAFTER. THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS BY THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT\r\nHUMBERTO MAY ATTEMPT A COMEBACK STARTING AROUND DAY 5...BUT IT IS\r\nQUITE UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE REMAINING AT\r\nTHAT TIME AFTER EXPERIENCING SUBSTANTIAL VERTICAL SHEAR FOR NEARLY\r\nFOUR DAYS.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS MOVING DUE NORTH AT 11 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE\r\nSTEERING INDUCED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST AFRICA TO ITS EAST. \r\nIN ABOUT TWO DAYS...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE\r\nAZORES AND FORCE HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE TRACK PREDICTION IS\r\nNEARLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0300Z 19.1N  29.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 20.7N  29.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 22.3N  29.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 23.5N  31.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 24.2N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 25.2N  37.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 27.5N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF HUMBERTO REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST COMPRISED\r\nOF COLD CLOUD TOPS AND OCCASIONAL HINTS OF A WARM SPOT OR EYE.  THE\r\nOUTER CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF SEVERAL WELL-DEFINED\r\nBANDS...AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS. \r\nHOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA IN THE LAST FEW HOURS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC\r\nAND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DETERIORATION OF THE EYEWALL JUST RECENTLY. \r\nTHESE DEVELOPMENTS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO MAY HAVE PEAKED IN\r\nINTENSITY.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T4.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB...AND ADT VALUES ARE RUNNING AROUND 4.5.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT.\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY NORTHWARD...005/12....AND A\r\nNORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS\r\nIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\nAFTER THAT...A WEAKENING HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nTHEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN BETWEEN A BLOCKING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nTHE WEST UNTIL ABOUT DAY 4. BY DAY 5...HUMBERTO SHOULD REACH A\r\nREGION OF WEAK STEERING AND SLOW DOWN WHILE IT TURNS NORTHWARD OR\r\nPERHAPS EVEN NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nADVANCING ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA.  THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE\r\nRIGHT THIS CYCLE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOW FAST AND IN WHAT\r\nDIRECTION THE CYCLONE IS STEERED LATE IN THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS MORE UNCERTAIN\r\nTHAN NORMAL AT THE MOMENT.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HUMBERTO IS ALREADY OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26C...\r\nSUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE ALLOWED THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED SOON AS\r\nA RESULT OF INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE\r\nENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR. SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS THE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASING TO GREATER THAN 40 KT IN 2-3 DAYS\r\nWHILE HUMBERTO IS STILL OVER COOL WATERS...WHICH COULD RESULT IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW A RESILIENT HUMBERTO...PERHAPS BECAUSE OF THE LARGE\r\nSIZE OF ITS CIRCULATION...SURVIVING TO REACH WARMER WATERS BY DAY\r\n4. SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD AND POTENTIAL\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MIGHT ALLOW\r\nFOR SOME RE-STRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN\r\nIN THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD AND LIES IN BETWEEN THE LOWER SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSMBLE OUTPUT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/0900Z 20.5N  28.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 22.0N  29.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 23.5N  30.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 24.5N  31.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 25.1N  33.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 26.1N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 27.3N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 28.5N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE SYSTEM...HUMBERTO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CONTINUED\r\nHINTS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nINCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE\r\nWARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN\r\nSTRONG...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST DSHIPS AND LGEM PREDICTIONS. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...OR\r\n360/13.  A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF\r\nTHE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WHILE A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  BY THIS TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING STEERING\r\nCURRENT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION.  THIS IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nA RECENT ASCAT OVER PASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER HURRICANE\r\nTHAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED\r\nACCORDINGLY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/1500Z 21.8N  29.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 23.3N  29.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 24.6N  31.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 25.4N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 26.0N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 27.5N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 29.0N  43.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 31.0N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nTHE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THERE\r\nCONTINUES TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE\r\nHURRICANE. DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB HAVE NOT YET DECREASED...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n75 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT\r\nTIME FRAME. LATER ON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE\r\nWARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX A LITTLE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT\r\nSOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED\r\nHERE AT DAYS 4-5.\r\n\r\nTHE NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT 350/12 KT. A LARGE MID-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD\r\nCAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT\r\nWITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nMOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE\r\nNEW TRACK GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE\r\nECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 23.1N  29.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 24.1N  30.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 25.2N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 26.0N  34.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 26.8N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 28.8N  40.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 30.5N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 33.0N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...FROM METOP AND SSMIS...INDICATE THAT THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS BECOMING DISLOCATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF\r\nHUMBERTO. SO WHILE THE HURRICANE IS STILL PRODUCTING QUITE COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS...WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS APPARENTLY BEGUN. THE\r\nINTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH THE LOWER ADT. A\r\nRECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO GROW LARGER...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nEXTENDING OUT ALMOST 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING CAUSED BY\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF OVER 30 KT...PRIMARILY\r\nDUE TO A RATHER ROBUST TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE\r\nWEST OF HUMBERTO.  THIS STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL\r\nTHERMODYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING.  AT THE LONGER\r\nTIME RANGE...THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO LESSEN DUE TO THE FILLING OF\r\nTHE UPPER TROUGH WHILE HUMBERTO ALSO REACHES WARMER WATERS.  THE\r\nGFS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS REDUCTION IN SHEAR WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT\r\nTHREE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL WAITS UNTIL FOUR OR EVEN FIVE\r\nDAYS FOR THIS TO OCCUR.  THIS DIFFERENCE LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER IT\r\nWILL SIGNIFICANTLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS AND BELOW IT THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING AT 10 KT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS IT\r\nIS PROGRESSING THROUGH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  IN ABOUT A\r\nDAY...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE REBUILDS NEAR THE AZORES AND\r\nSHOULD ABRUPTLY TURN HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  BY DAY\r\nFIVE...HUMBERTO SHOULD BE ROUNDING THIS RIDGE AND BEGINNING\r\nRECURVATURE.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...BUT ARE\r\nSOMEWHAT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LAST ADVISORY AND AN AVERAGE OF\r\nTHE GFS/ECMWF/FIM GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 23.4N  29.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 24.4N  30.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 25.3N  32.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 26.2N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 27.4N  37.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 29.5N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 31.5N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 34.5N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Humberto","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS BARELY HANGING ON TO\r\nHURRICANE STATUS. LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN\r\nAVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AS THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10.\r\nA TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST\r\nTO OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN HUMBERTO MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE\r\nHUMBERTO REMAINS OVER 25-26C WATERS AND MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER\r\nSHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO LESSEN WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THESE MORE\r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IN\r\nADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO DEEPENING IN 3\r\nTO 5 DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS.\r\nTHE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 24.4N  30.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 25.2N  31.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 26.0N  33.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 27.1N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 28.2N  38.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 30.3N  41.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 32.5N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 35.5N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON HUMBERTO.  ALL OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION...LEAVING AN \r\nEXPOSED CENTER WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MESOVORTICES.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...BASICALLY AS FAST AS THE DVORAK\r\nCONSTRAINTS ALLOW.  FURTHER WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS. \r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nDIMINISH WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...WHICH COULD\r\nALLOW FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nSTORM WILL UNDERGO A TROUGH INTERACTION IN THE LONG RANGE...LEAVING\r\nIT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 36 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE RATHER STRONG\r\nSHEAR FORECAST.  AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF HUMBERTO IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY DAYS 4-5\r\nWHILE IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.  THE ONLY\r\nSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAST THE STORM\r\nACCELERATES INTO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH DEPENDS ON\r\nWHAT PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. \r\nTHE NEW NHC PREDICTION WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR\r\nTHE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 24.7N  31.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 25.4N  32.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 26.3N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 27.4N  37.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 28.5N  39.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 30.7N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 32.8N  45.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 36.5N  44.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO REDEVELOP NEAR HUMBERTO IN\r\nTHE FACE OF SOME RATHER STRONG SHEAR.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS SUGGEST\r\nAN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS COULD BE REFINED\r\nA BIT AFTER THE NEXT SCATTEROMETER PASS.  AN EXTREMELY LARGE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR \r\nHUMBERTO.  THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE FOR A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HUMBERTO DROP TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL FIND A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS HUMBERTO AS A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 5.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED IN THE SHORTER TERM...BUT IS\r\nKEPT THE SAME AT THE END.  \r\n\r\nTHE MOTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE LEFT...NOW 290/10. \r\nTHERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nWHILE A STRONG RIDGE STEERS THE STORM BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. \r\nTHERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO\r\nRECURVES OUT TO SEA...WITH THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTING A MUCH FASTER\r\nTRACK THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS.  OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nTRENDING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED IN THAT WAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 25.0N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 25.4N  33.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 26.3N  36.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 27.3N  38.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 28.2N  40.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 30.4N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 32.5N  45.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 36.0N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":22,"Date":"2013-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH HUMBERTO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN\r\n10 HOURS...A 13/2307Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 37-38 KT\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE MISSING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE\r\nSTRONGER WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN PRESENT. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS\r\nONLY LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY CYCLE. HOWEVER...INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG WITH SUB-26C SSTS\r\nSHOULD COMBINE TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. HUMBERTO IS THEN\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN A REMNANT LOW FOR ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...AT WHICH\r\nTIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SHARPLY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS\r\nMOVING OVER 28C SSTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION BACK INTO\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 3...WITH HUMBERTO POSSIBLY REGAINING\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT. THERE REMAINS NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC\r\nREASONING. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THEN GRADUALLY\r\nRECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAYS 3/4 AS A STRONG\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE OFF OF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 24.8N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 25.4N  34.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 26.3N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 27.2N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 28.2N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 30.3N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 32.6N  45.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 36.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":23,"Date":"2013-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A\r\nCONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN\r\nSOON IT WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER\r\nTODAY. EVEN THOUGH HUMBERTO LACKS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IT\r\nCONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nAND IT IS LIKELY STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT...ASSUMING A SPIN DOWN FROM THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING HUMBERTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDURING THAT TIME. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE BY MONDAY...AND ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW\r\nHUMBERTO GAINING STRENGTH IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SOME OF THE EXPECTED\r\nINTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE TROUGH\r\nINTERACTION.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS ON A WESTWARD PATH...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 275/8. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS\r\nFORECAST WHEN THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.\r\nHUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE IN ABOUT 4\r\nDAYS WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN\r\nTHE RIDGE AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS\r\nOVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED DURING THE RECURVATURE STAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST\r\nAND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN\r\nTHOSE MODELS AND LIES VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 25.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 25.3N  35.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 26.2N  38.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 27.2N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 28.1N  41.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 30.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 33.0N  44.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 37.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Humberto","Adv":24,"Date":"2013-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION...BUT HAS BEEN WITHOUT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...HUMBERTO IS\r\nBEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ON THIS ADVISORY...WITH\r\nWINDS ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS.  VERY\r\nSTRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR...AND A\r\nTRACK OVER MARGINALLY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT IN\r\nA CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN-DOWN OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nPOSSIBLY TWO.  AFTER THAT...REGENERATION OF HUMBERTO INTO A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SEEMS LIKELY SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nWARMER WATERS AND EXPERIENCING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHEAR.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW HUMBERTO INTERACTING WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nIN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS INTERACTION COULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR A FASTER\r\nRATE OF INTENSIFICATION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION IS KEPT HIGHER INITIALLY ASSUMING A SLOWER\r\nRATE OF DECAY.  THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS KEPT THE SAME AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY ABOVE THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/11...\r\nAROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION OF HUMBERTO SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND\r\nSLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN IT MOVES INTO A\r\nWEAKNESS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A STRONG TROUGH IN THE\r\nWESTERLIES APPROACHING HUMBERTO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS SHOULD LEAD TO A\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD WITH ACCELERATION ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT SLOWER ON DAYS 3 TO 5...\r\nLYING IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HUMBERTO CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 25.4N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 25.8N  37.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 26.7N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 27.5N  41.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 28.6N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 30.9N  44.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 33.7N  44.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 37.5N  41.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":25,"Date":"2013-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO\r\nHAS BEEN BURSTING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND THE DISTANCE\r\nBETWEEN THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING. THE SYSTEM NOW HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nBE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ON HUMBERTO HAVE\r\nBEEN RESTARTED.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON\r\nTWO ASCAT PASSES FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT INDICATED WINDS TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE.\r\n \r\nA CONSERVATIVE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06. HUMBERTO IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE INTO A COL AREA IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC\r\nCANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCA AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND\r\nMORE-EASTERLY ECWMF AND THE FASTER AND MORE-WESTERLY GFS.\r\n \r\nVERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO\r\nRELAX SOME AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND SHIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE RELATIVE RELAXATION IN SHEAR FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...ALONG WITH A TRACK OVER WARMER WATERS...SHOULD\r\nALLOW HUMBERTO TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\nA POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON\r\nDAYS 3-5 IS LIKELY TO SPEED UP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION.\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED BY DAY 5. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND\r\nLGEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 27.2N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 28.2N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 29.5N  44.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 30.2N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 31.1N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 33.1N  44.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 36.7N  40.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 44.7N  32.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":26,"Date":"2013-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTIVE CANOPY THAT WAS NEARLY COVERING THE CENTER\r\nEARLIER HAS BEEN SHEARED EASTWARD WHILE THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nHAVE BEEN WARMING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A FRAGMENT OF A BAND\r\nLIES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT IT TOO IS BEING SUBJECTED\r\nTO STRONG SHEAR OF ABOUT 30 KT ACCORDING TO SHIPS/UW-CIMSS\r\nANALYSES. NEVERTHELESS...A MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED AT LEAST\r\n40-KT WINDS ABOUT 60 N MI NORTH OF THE CENTER. DESPITE THE\r\nDEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN IN RECENT HOURS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS.\r\n\r\nSEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER OF HUMBERTO TODAY...MAKING AN ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION MORE DIFFICULT THAN NORMAL. A LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF\r\nFIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 300/05. THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY IS NO\r\nDIFFERENT THAN EARLIER. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS INTO A COL REGION IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER\r\nATLANTIC CANADA. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO\r\nRECURVATURE AND ACCELERATE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO\r\nLIE CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA...IN BETWEEN THE\r\nMORE-WESTERLY GFS AND THE MORE-EASTERLY ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR OVER HUMBERTO IS STILL FORECAST TO DECREASE SOME DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE STORM SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE RELAXATION OF SHEAR AND WARMER\r\nWATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SUGGEST AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE INTERACTION\r\nOF HUMBERTO WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES SHOULD ALLOW\r\nA FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION UNTIL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nOCCURS BETWEEN DAYS 4-5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE HIGHER SHIPS OUTPUT AND THE LOWER INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS/LGEM\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF ALL THE GUIDANCE AT LATER\r\nTIMES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 27.3N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 28.4N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 29.5N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 30.4N  45.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 31.2N  45.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 33.5N  44.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 38.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 47.0N  30.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":27,"Date":"2013-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 60\r\nNMI TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\nAROUND 25 KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PASS\r\nFROM EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT...ASSUMING THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING\r\nIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHICH WAS NOT CAPTURED BY THE ASCAT\r\nDATA.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS\r\nIT IS CURRENTLY ENTANGLED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT\r\nOR EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY\r\nWHEN IT MOVES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WHEN\r\nTHE STORM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE\r\nEAST SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nREMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nSTRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING HUMBERTO.\r\nTHIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC PATTERN FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nRECENT WEAKENING AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST GUIDANCE. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 27.0N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 28.0N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 29.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 30.0N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 30.9N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 33.7N  43.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 40.0N  37.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 52.0N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":28,"Date":"2013-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH CYCLES OF HAVING DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR ITS CENTER TO BEING SHEARED WITH ALL THE CONVECTION DISPLACED\r\nWELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AS OF RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION\r\nHAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR MAY BE RELAXING.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM\r\nTAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA.  THE LOWEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A\r\nDROPSONDE FROM A RECENT NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION WAS 1009 MB WITH A\r\nSURFACE WIND OF 15 KT...INDICATING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS\r\nPROBABLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.\r\n \r\nTHE WAXING AND WANING OF CONVECTION HAS CAUSED THE SURFACE CENTER TO\r\nJUMP AND MEANDER FOR THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS\r\nTHAT HUMBERTO IS NOW MOVING AGAIN...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE\r\nYIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 020/4 KT.  THE STORM IS LOCATED TO\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES\r\nAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING\r\nOFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA.  THE RESULTANT STEERING FLOW\r\nIS FORECAST TO PUSH HUMBERTO GENERALLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST BEGINNING ON DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER.  THE HWRF\r\nIS THE MAIN OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER\r\nMOTION AND A TRACK TO THE EAST BY DAY 5.  THE REST OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO DOWNPLAY\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF THE HWRF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nTHE CIRCULATIONS OF HUMBERTO AND A NEARBY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nARE BECOMING COLLOCATED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THEREFORE...\r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  HUMBERTO IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE BY DAY 4...AND EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nMUCH COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES COULD ALLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER.  A 5-DAY POSITION IS STILL\r\nSHOWN FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE\r\nABSORBED BY ANOTHER LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 27.8N  42.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 28.9N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 29.8N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 30.7N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 31.9N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 35.5N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 45.0N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/0600Z 54.0N  26.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":29,"Date":"2013-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO HAS BEEN WELL OBSERVED BY DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA\r\nGLOBAL HAWK AND ASCAT DATA...WHICH SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS\r\nUNDERGONE AN INTERESTING EVOLUTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND\r\nIS ARGUABLY MORE SUBTROPICAL THAN TROPICAL.  OVERNIGHT...THE SYSTEM\r\nWAS CHARACTERIZED BY AN EXPOSED CIRCULATION WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF\r\nMAXIMUM WIND...ABOUT 130 N MI.  THE SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION\r\nBEING TRACKED OVERNIGHT DISSIPATED THIS MORNING AND A NEW CENTER\r\nFORMED WELL TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION BUT ALSO\r\nDIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW.  WITH THE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM HUMBERTO WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...THIS VERTICAL STRUCTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST. CONSEQUENTLY WE HAVE CHOSEN TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL\r\nCLASSIFICATION FOR CONTINUITY AND TO MINIMIZE CONFUSION...AT LEAST\r\nFOR NOW.  \r\n\r\nTHE ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 40 KT.\r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nNORTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE SOME...THEN INCREASE FURTHER IN 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. \r\nAS A RESULT...ONLY SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES.  \r\n\r\nBECAUSE OF THE CENTER REFORMATION...A CONFIDENT INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nIMPOSSIBLE TO DETERMINE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT HUMBERTO WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE\r\nUPPER LOW.  IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...HUMBERTO SHOULD TURN\r\nNORTHWARD...THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT HUMBERTO COULD BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH IN\r\nABOUT 72 HOURS...WITH A SEPARATE EXTRATROPICAL DEVELOPMENT\r\nOCCURRING ALONG A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF\r\nHUMBERTO.  FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST WILL KEEP CONTINUITY WITH THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES BY INDICATING THAT HUMBERTO WILL BECOME THE\r\nMAIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/1500Z 29.4N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 29.7N  43.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 30.6N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 31.6N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 33.0N  42.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 36.7N  39.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 47.5N  30.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1200Z 60.0N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":30,"Date":"2013-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013\r\n \r\nHUMBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...AND IT STILL HAS\r\nSOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN BAND THAT EXTENDS ABOUT\r\nTHREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nIS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS\r\nALLOWED THE SHEAR TO RELAX A LITTLE. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...\r\nAND HUMBERTO COULD LOSE SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS\r\nWHILE THAT OCCURS. REGARDLESS...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC\r\nENVIRONMENTS FAVOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\nHUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...\r\nALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING\r\nINTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. A SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDDED IN THE\r\nSTRONGER FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 30.3N  42.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 30.9N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 32.0N  43.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 33.3N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 35.0N  42.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 40.7N  37.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 51.5N  27.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":31,"Date":"2013-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  ONLY SOME\r\nFRAGMENTED BANDS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ELONGATED\r\nCIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCONVECTION.  AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS...\r\nAND 35 KT IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  SOME INCREASE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND HUMBERTO\r\nREMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SHIPS/\r\nLGEM ARE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOW HUMBERTO CLOSE\r\nTO A HURRICANE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SSTS FROM\r\nSHIPS SEEM TOO HIGH COMPARED WITH AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS.  THUS...\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE SINCE THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS NOT VERY COMPACT...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 345/6. A\r\nTROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD TURN HUMBERTO TO THE\r\nNORTH THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE 48-72H PERIOD. MOST OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT\r\n3 DAYS...AND ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 4-5 DAYS.\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE\r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 30.8N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 31.6N  43.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 32.8N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 34.3N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 36.3N  41.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 43.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 54.5N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":32,"Date":"2013-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013\r\n \r\nIF I JUST WENT BY THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...I WOULD\r\nPROBABLY DOWNGRADE HUMBERTO TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  HOWEVER...\r\nTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS MIGHT NOT BE PURELY APPLICABLE IN THIS\r\nCASE...AND I WOULD RATHER WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE ADDITIONAL\r\nSUPPORTING DATA BEFORE DECREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  AN\r\nARGUMENT COULD ALSO BE MADE THAT MORE DISTINCT BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE BEGUN TO FORM ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DURING\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IN SOME SENSE HUMBERTO LOOKS A\r\nLITTLE MORE ORGANIZED NOW THAN IT DID LAST EVENING.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN INCREDIBLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...\r\nPARTIALLY BECAUSE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAVE\r\nBEEN MASKING THE LOW CLOUD MOTIONS.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT...BUT HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHWARD VERY SOON BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AZORES AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE STORM\r\nSHOULD START FEELING THE EFFECTS OF FASTER MID-LATITUDE FLOW IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO...AND WILL ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH ATLANTIC BY 48 HOURS.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nFAIRLY NARROW...AND NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nWERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE DIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL REGIME IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO AT\r\nLEAST ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY.  EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 48 HOURS...SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DUE TO BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES.  WITH\r\nTHE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT HUMBERTO\r\nCOULD BE ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY DAY 4...AND THAT IS\r\nNOW INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 31.4N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 32.2N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 33.6N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 35.1N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 37.1N  41.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 45.0N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":33,"Date":"2013-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013\r\n\r\nHUMBERRTO APPEARS DISORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. \r\nTHE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS IN BANDS LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS\r\nNEAR THE CENTER.  IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nBECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  WATER\r\nVAPOR AND AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL\r\nCLOSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH MAY BE HINDERING THE CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION.  WHILE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES DURING THE NIGHT\r\nSUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS THUS HELD...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY..AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...WHICH IS A\r\nLITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NOW 335/4.  HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THE SPREAD\r\nOF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY NARROW...AND THE NEW\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL TIME FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO\r\nA MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW.  HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nCALLING FOR HUMBERTO TO BE A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72\r\nHOURS...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...FAVORED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...\r\nAND CANADIAN MODELS...IS THAT LITTLE STRENGTHENING OCCURS AND THAT\r\nHUMBERTO DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH AS IT ENOUCNTERS THE FRONTAL\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 31.3N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 32.3N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 33.8N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 36.1N  42.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 38.7N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 51.0N  27.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Humberto","Adv":34,"Date":"2013-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO...\r\nMAINLY IN SKELETAL BANDS IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  WATER\r\nVAPOR AND AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL\r\nIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THIS MAY BE SLOWING\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION.  RECENT OSCAT DATA\r\nSHOWED A FEW 30-35 KT WIND VECTORS ABOUT 150 N MI FROM THE CENTER\r\nIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  IN ADDITION...RECENT AMSU INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS ARE 37 KT AND 32 KT RESPECTIVELY. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS A POSSIBLY\r\nGENEROUS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO HAS MADE ITS EXPECTED NORTHWARD TURN WITH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION NOW 355/5.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS STILL TIME FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO\r\nA MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD APPROACH A FRONTAL ZONE IN\r\n36-48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT ON WHETHER\r\nHUMBERTO WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...OR WHETHER IT WILL\r\nDEGENERATE TO A TROUGH AS ANOTHER LOW BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT\r\nSYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN\r\nCALLING FOR HUMBERTO TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48 HOURS.  THAT\r\nBEING SAID...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION THERE IS LIKELY TO\r\nBE A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR THE 72 HOUR POINT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 31.8N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 33.0N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 34.9N  42.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 37.4N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 41.6N  37.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 54.0N  23.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Humberto","Adv":35,"Date":"2013-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 18 2013\r\n\r\nHUMBERTO IS LOSING ORGANIZATION THIS EVENING.  SHORTWAVE-IR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME STRETCHED FROM\r\nTHE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nTAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE.  WHILE THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME TIME\r\nOVER MARGINAL SSTS AND IN LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR...THE POOR INITIAL\r\nSTRUCTURE WILL LIKELY PREVENT HUMBERTO FROM SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM.  AFTER 24H...THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST...AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW SOME\r\nINCREASE IN STRENGTH DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  AFTER\r\nACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS...THE LATEST NHC FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nSINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 010/8.  GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON HUMBERTO TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATING\r\nAHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THE CYCLONE WILL DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72H.  THE NHC PREDICTION WILL GO ALONG WITH\r\nTHE ABSORBED SCENARIO...THOUGH IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF\r\nHUMBERTO OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 32.5N  43.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 33.7N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 35.7N  41.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 38.6N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 43.0N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Humberto","Adv":36,"Date":"2013-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS LIMITED TO A CLUSTER OF\r\nCELLS LOCATED 100-200 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMAINTAINED AS A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nIT COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING POST-TROPICAL.  THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nHAVE ALL TRENDED TOWARDS SHOWING THE SURFACE WIND FIELD OF HUMBERTO\r\nOPENING UP INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN WE HAVE BEEN\r\nINDICATING.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS POINTS OUT TO 36 HOURS.  IF IT DOES LAST THAT LONG...HUMBERTO\r\nSHOULD ULTIMATELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL ZONE BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nA MORE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER HAS FORMED...BUT THAT NOW PUTS\r\nHUMBERTO ABOUT A DEGREE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.\r\nREGARDLESS...THE DEPRESSION IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY NORTHWARD\r\nAROUND 7 KT.  AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE WITHIN 24\r\nHOURS AND THEN MAINTAIN THAT HEADING UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADJUSTED INITIAL POSITION...BUT\r\nOTHERWISE THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 33.0N  44.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 34.5N  43.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 36.3N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 38.6N  38.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Humberto","Adv":37,"Date":"2013-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 19 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH HUMBERTO IS SPUTTERING THIS MORNING\r\nAND BARELY MEETS THE CRITERION NEEDED FOR MAINTAINING THE SYSTEM AS\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WHILE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nATMOSPHERIC STABILITY ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION...DRY CONDITIONS\r\nAND STRONG NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TOWARD THE\r\nSYSTEM BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. \r\nADDITIONALLY...ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING\r\nLARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF HUMBERTO IN ABOUT A DAY. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS HUMBERTO AS A 30 KT CYCLONE UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION...AS INDICATED BY THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD\r\nOVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH A LONGER TERM MOTION ESTIMATED AT 25\r\nDEGREES AT 5 KT.  HUMBERTO SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT\r\nGETS SWEPT UP IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE BEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nONE IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL TRACK\r\nENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 32.8N  43.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 34.2N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 36.8N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Humberto","Adv":38,"Date":"2013-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 19 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HUMBERTO HAS OPENED UP INTO A TROUGH AS IT BECOMES\r\nABSORBED WITHIN AN APPROACHING LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nINTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 30 KT...CONSISTENT WITH THE ASCAT\r\nPASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO HAVE BEEN MOVING AT 80 DEGREES AT 8 KT.\r\nTHESE SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS THEY GET SWEPT UP IN THE\r\nWARM SECTOR OF THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 33.6N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS\r\nAND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nSTEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nTHE HWRF.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL\r\nBE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  12/2100Z 19.7N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 19.7N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 19.5N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 19.3N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 19.3N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 20.7N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 22.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND\r\nSOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE\r\nOVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY\r\nBECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST\r\nSTRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A\r\nBIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT\r\nBOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE\r\nSHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT\r\nTIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT\r\nWEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA...\r\nBUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nSTILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nLARGER THAN USUAL. \r\n\r\nTHE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL\r\nBE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 19.7N  94.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 19.6N  94.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 19.4N  94.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 19.4N  94.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 19.8N  94.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 21.5N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 23.0N  98.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED\r\nLITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE\r\nASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n30 KT FROM SAB.  THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS\r\nFROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING\r\nABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED\r\nERRATIC MOTION.  AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW\r\nOVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS\r\nPREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS\r\nSHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...\r\nWHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE\r\nTURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD.  THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL.\r\n \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME.  CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  NONE\r\nOF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL\r\nBE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 19.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 19.7N  94.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 20.0N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 20.6N  95.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 21.5N  95.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 23.0N  97.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 23.5N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN\r\nSIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45\r\nKNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR\r\nWINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO\r\n40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.\r\nALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE\r\nA LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nA LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nAS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING\r\nERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER\r\nTEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...\r\nSHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES\r\nTHE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE\r\nNORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER.\r\nEVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nAND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nIT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 19.4N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 19.5N  95.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 20.5N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 21.3N  96.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 22.0N  97.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 23.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS\r\nCAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED\r\nON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED\r\nFROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB.\r\nSINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE\r\nNHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL\r\nSHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE\r\nTIME OF LANDFALL. \r\n \r\nINGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT\r\n6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY\r\nTHE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER\r\nTEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF\r\nINGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.       \r\n\r\nIT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM\r\nBOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS\r\nTIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 19.2N  95.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 19.5N  95.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 20.8N  95.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 21.7N  96.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 22.3N  97.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 22.5N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-09-14 00:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nDATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nFALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA\r\nFROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO\r\nIMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A\r\nCDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nOBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY IN 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN\r\nSIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nOUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\nNO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS\r\nBEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO\r\nTHE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW\r\nFROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nWILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER\r\nEASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nNOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM\r\nCDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0000Z 19.2N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 19.5N  95.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 20.8N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 21.7N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 22.3N  97.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 22.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER...THE INTENSITY OF INGRID APPEARS TO\r\nHAVE LEVELED OFF. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z WAS 993 MB...AND THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT GOTTEN TOO MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE\r\nTO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE FLYING INTO INGRID OVERNIGHT.\r\nTHE OBSERVED SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT TO STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPROVING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS BOTH SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nINGRID SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS IT MOVES\r\nINTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. \r\n\r\nAIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SHOW LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD...A\r\nSLOW NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON\r\nSUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL\r\nTREND...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND\r\nSHARPNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A WIDER TURN WHILE THE HWRF HAS ONE OF THE\r\nTRACKS FARTHEST TO THE LEFT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND\r\nLOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE\r\nUNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE\r\nMOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-\r\nTHREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nHAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 19.3N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 20.0N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 21.1N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 21.9N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 22.3N  97.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 22.4N  99.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER\r\nTHAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL\r\nQUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED\r\nA PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM\r\nTHE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN\r\nTRANSIENT.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\n45 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS\r\nCONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n \r\nINGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nGENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE\r\nISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH\r\nMODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE\r\nGUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH\r\nOF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\nHOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE\r\nIN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nEXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nMODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE\r\nTHE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND\r\nSUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL.  SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS\r\nNOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND\r\nMAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT\r\nTHE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 19.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 21.5N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 22.2N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 22.4N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 22.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS\r\nINTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE\r\nWAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON\r\nTHIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.  AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES\r\nPROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nINGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES\r\nIN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO\r\nMOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD\r\nTURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL\r\nMODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nVARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS\r\nINGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID\r\nNEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 20.6N  94.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 21.4N  94.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 22.0N  94.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 22.5N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 22.5N  97.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 22.0N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 21.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nTHE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA\r\nOF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS\r\nBEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF\r\nTHE 2013 SEASON.\r\n \r\nBOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...\r\nBEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF\r\nTHE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nINGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY\r\nFROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL\r\nBECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE\r\nTHE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE\r\nTHE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE\r\nMODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS\r\nCONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR\r\nABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO\r\nTHE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN\r\nINDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 21.3N  94.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 22.0N  94.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 22.7N  95.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 22.8N  97.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 22.5N  98.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 22.0N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 21.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING INGRID THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE NOAA P-3 REPORTED SEVERAL SFMR\r\nWINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE AFTER CORRECTING FOR THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nRAIN...AND DATA FROM TWO DROPSONDES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM\r\nTHE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB IS BASED ON A\r\nDROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND THAT\r\nVALUE HAS RISEN A BIT SINCE 00Z. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nIMPROVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN EXPANDING CDO FEATURE.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL...WHICH\r\nWAS ALSO NOTED BY PERSONNEL ON THE NOAA AIRCRAFT. \r\n \r\nINGRID HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR...AND\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST\r\nTO THE LGEM MODEL. QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT INGRID IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/07. A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THIS\r\nCYCLE...WITH THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A FASTER MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED NORTHWARD IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION.\r\nTHIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD DIP\r\nIN THE TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF\r\nMEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO BAHIA\r\nALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH TO\r\nRIO SAN FERNANDO.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW\r\nRESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL\r\nIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A\r\nSIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 22.0N  95.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 22.4N  95.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 23.0N  96.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 23.0N  97.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 22.7N  98.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF INGRID IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 75 KT.  A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING INGRID AND WILL SOON PROVIDE MORE PRECISE\r\nINFORMATION ABOUT THE INTENSITY...BUT PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM\r\nTHAT AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT INCREASE IN THE\r\nWINDS.  INGRID WAS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME\r\nRELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...A VERY RECENT CENTER FIX FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATES\r\nTHAT INGRID HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH A MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 315/6.  FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nAS IT APPROACHES THE COAST.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW\r\nRESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL\r\nIN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A\r\nSIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 22.4N  95.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 22.9N  96.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 23.1N  97.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 23.1N  98.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 22.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nNOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF\r\nINVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE.  THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR\r\nOBSERVATION WAS 58 KT.  A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED\r\nWITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54\r\nKT.  THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT\r\nTHE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED\r\nTO 65 KT.  THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF\r\nRESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A\r\nLONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  THE\r\nTIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE\r\nSHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST\r\nWHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE\r\nLANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT\r\nFLOODING.  WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM\r\nMANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 22.5N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 22.8N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 23.0N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 22.8N  98.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 22.5N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV\r\nMISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR.\r\nALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF RECONNAISSANCE PLANES...ONE\r\nFROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE...AND THE OTHER A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH\r\nMISSION...SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH AND\r\nSIZE OF INGRID THIS EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DECREASE ABOUT THE TIME\r\nOF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH INGRID COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER\r\nBETWEEN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO.\r\n \r\nINGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\nINGRID SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTEXAS TONIGHT...THEN BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL.  THERE\r\nIS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...\r\nAND THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS\r\nFROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ARE\r\nEXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE \r\nOF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 22.7N  96.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 23.0N  97.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 23.0N  98.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 22.6N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 22.2N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS\r\nINDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME.\r\nAROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987\r\nMB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989\r\nMB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850\r\nMB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER\r\nWINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT...\r\nWHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS.\r\n \r\nAFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE\r\nOF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nA BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.\r\n \r\nA COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nSURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL\r\nTILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME\r\nOF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES\r\nINLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS\r\nFROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE\r\nEXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 23.1N  96.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 23.2N  97.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 22.9N  98.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 22.5N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS \r\nRELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE\r\nHAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH\r\nTHE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nRANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES\r\nINLAND.  THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nLGEM PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE\r\nBROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A\r\nLITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. \r\nHOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE\r\nFLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.  THE LATTER FEATURE\r\nTYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST\r\nHWRF MODEL TRACK.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS\r\nFROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST\r\nOF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS WILL\r\nLIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 23.4N  97.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 23.3N  98.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 22.8N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 22.3N  99.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE\r\nHUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT INGRID MADE LANDFALL\r\nNEAR LA PESCA MEXICO SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE\r\nAIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND\r\nBIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT.  THESE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT INGRID WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF\r\nLANDFALL. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED IN MEXICO WAS FROM AN AUTOMATED\r\nSTATION NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO THAT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT\r\nWITH A GUST TO 56 KT AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM IS\r\nEXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. INGRID\r\nIS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRE MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS\r\nWITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nINGRID HAS NOT YET MADE THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN...AS THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD SOON...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nTO BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INGRID WEAKENS OVER LAND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nINGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS\r\nACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 23.8N  98.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 23.4N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 22.8N 100.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INGRID CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER\r\nEASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 30 KT BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN\r\nDECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE\r\nSIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD. A\r\nTURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THIS MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nINGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS\r\nACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 23.7N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WSR-88D\r\nDOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE\r\nCOOLED TO -80C AND COLDER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR\r\nDATA. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE...INGRID IS BEING MAINTAINED\r\nAS A 25-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS FRICTION WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD\r\nWHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS DISRUPTED BY THE SIERRA MADRE\r\nORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF INGRID.\r\n \r\nINGRID HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING 270/04 KT.\r\nTHE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE\r\nHIGH SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED...CAUSING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE WEST\r\nOR EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INGRID IS\r\nFORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nINGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING\r\nTORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF\r\nEASTWARD-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER.\r\nTHESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND\r\nMUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 23.7N  99.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Ingrid","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013\r\n400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN\r\nMEXICO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CENTER AND CIRCULATION OF INGRID HAVE BEEN\r\nDESTROYED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THEREFORE...INGRID HAS\r\nDISSIPATED...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH INGRID HAS DISSIPATED...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nPROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD\r\nSLIDES IN THE AREA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 23.7N  99.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 28 2013\r\n \r\nTHE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION...THE ELEVENTH ONE OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE\r\nSEASON. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON EARLIER\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT ON THE WEST SIDE OF\r\nA DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nSOON AS A LARGE TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CAUSING\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THEN EASTWARD LATE\r\nSUNDAY. THE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABSORB OR PICK UP THE\r\nDEPRESSION...INSTEAD THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING\r\nTHE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR AT LEAST\r\nA FEW DAYS. THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL INFLUENCE ON THE STEERING FLOW\r\nWILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER TROUGH THAT WILL BE APPROACHING THE\r\nDEPRESSION AROUND THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE NHC FORECAST\r\nSHOWS THE SYSTEM MAKING A CLOCKWISE LOOP AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY ABOUT 15 KT OF\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH HAS DISPLACED MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nLESSEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...AN INCREASE IN\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR ARE EXPECTED TO END THE\r\nSTRENGTHENING TREND AND LIKELY INDUCE WEAKENING. THE NHC WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM AND THEN LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE\r\nANTICIPATED HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 25.2N  50.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 26.1N  49.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 27.0N  48.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 27.1N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 26.6N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 26.2N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 27.2N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 29.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 29 2013\r\n \r\nNIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THE DEPRESSION HAS A ROBUST\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nSHEARED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SOME WEAK\r\nCURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRYING TO GET BETTER\r\nORGANIZED. FOR NOW...HOWEVER...AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM\r\nTAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE SMALL\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOW DOWN AS IT\r\nMOVES AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHILE A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT. THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A\r\nNEW RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO BUILD IN AND BECOME\r\nHIGHLY AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY 48\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO TURN THE CYCLONE WESTWARD THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS...COMPLETING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP IN THE PROCESS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...A SECOND AND STRONGER MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE\r\nEASTWARD FROM THE UNITED STATES...AND ACT TO LIFT OUT THE CYCLONE\r\nAND ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES\r\nCLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE GFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS ONLY INDICATING 9 KT\r\nOF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE DEPRESSION...WHICH\r\nIS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN IT WAS ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER...\r\nLIKELY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ONLY\r\nABOUT 300 NMI TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. THAT LOW IS FORECAST\r\nBY MOST OF THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF...TO MOVE IN\r\nTANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO AS IT MAKES A\r\nCLOCKWISE LOOP. AS A RESULT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE PLAGUED BY\r\nAT LEAST MODERATE SHEAR FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND REMAINS\r\nCLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL...ICON. HOWEVER...IF THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN THE SYSTEM COULD BE\r\nSOMEWHAT STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST ON DAYS 4 AND 5.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 25.6N  49.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 26.4N  48.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 27.0N  47.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 26.8N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 26.4N  46.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 26.3N  47.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 27.7N  48.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 30.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 29 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES THIS MORNING.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A NARROW BAND OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nSUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 25-30 KT...SO THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.  AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  LATER ON...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR SO SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO.  THE LATEST GFS RUN DOES\r\nNOT SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nMAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 050/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND \r\nTURN TOWARD THE RIGHT.  THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS\r\nTHE HFIP STREAM 1.5 MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nEXECUTING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SO\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  BY LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY\r\nEASTWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 26.0N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 26.7N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 26.8N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 26.5N  46.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 26.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 26.5N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 27.5N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 29.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nPOORLY-ORGANIZED AND IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB.  AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nJUST TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUES TO IMPART STRONG SHEAR OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM BECAME EXPOSED\r\nEARLIER TODAY.  MORE RECENTLY...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nOBSCURED THE CENTER.  ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING...THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO...AND THIS IS ALSO SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...\r\nHOWEVER...THAT THE LATEST HWRF AND ECMWF MODEL FORECASTS SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO\r\nTHIS IS A LOW-CONFIDENCE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...OR 050/9.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DEPICT A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING TO THE WEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION AND...ACCORDING TO\r\nSOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...A CLOCKWISE LOOP.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...AS BEFORE...ALSO INDICATES A LOOPING TRACK.  LATE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...A BROAD MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM\r\nTHE WEST SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST GFS\r\nPREDICTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 27.2N  47.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 27.3N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 27.3N  46.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 26.9N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 26.7N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 27.0N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 29.0N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 31.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED\r\nSLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nREMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...IT\r\nHAS LESS OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 30\r\nKT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DECREASING SOME\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE DRIER AIR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHESE MIXED SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS\r\nLIKELY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN INCREASE\r\nIN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME\r\nWEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW END OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE\r\nRIGHT...AS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n065/8. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS\r\nGRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE\r\nSYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 27.0N  47.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 27.1N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 26.9N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 26.6N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 26.4N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 27.0N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 29.5N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 31.5N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD REMAINS SHEARED NORTHEAST THROUGH\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN\r\nLIGHTNING ACTIVITY DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH IS OFTEN\r\nINDICATIVE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH SAB\r\nREPORTED A DATA T-NUMBER OF T2.5/35 KT. ADT VALUES ARE T2.8/41 KT\r\nAND A 02032Z OSCAT PASS CONTAINED SOME RAIN-FREE 30-35 KT WIND\r\nVECTORS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE IS\r\nVERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HISTORY OF\r\nTHIS SYSTEM GOING THROUGH SPORADIC CONVECTIVE BURSTING PHASES...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT WITH THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL\r\nBEING INCREASED TO 45 KT UNTIL A MORE PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nBECOMES ESTABLISHED.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED EASTWARD AND HAS SLOWED DOWN...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 090/04 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE MAKING A SLOW CLOCKWISE\r\nLOOP OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING OFF TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A BROAD\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND DUE TO A\r\nSIGNIFICANT WESTWARD BIAS CAUSED BY THE HWRF MODEL.\r\n \r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN MODERATE SHEAR\r\nCONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE. THE EXCEPTION IS\r\nBETWEEN 48 TO 72 HOURS WHEN THE SHEAR COULD LESSEN SOMEWHAT AS THE\r\nCYCLONE BRIEFLY MOVES UNDERNEATH A NARROW UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AS A\r\nTROUGH BYPASSES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING BETWEEN THOSE TWO FORECAST TIME PERIODS BEFORE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN AT AROUND 72 HOURS AND\r\nBEYOND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL...AND REMAINS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 26.9N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 26.9N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 26.6N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 26.4N  46.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 26.3N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 27.4N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 29.5N  48.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 32.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 30 2013\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE PERSISTENT...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE BOTH 35 KT...AND THE CYCLONE IS BEING UPGRADED TO\r\nA TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS\r\nDIFFLUENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE STORM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  AT\r\nTHIS TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HOSTILE ENOUGH TO\r\nPREVENT AT LEAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nIN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF\r\nSPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THEREFORE THE WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST FOR THAT TIME IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM\r\nHAS MOVED A LITTLE MORE TO THE EAST THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 090/6.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nPREDICT AN AMPLIFYING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTH OF JERRY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS STEERING SCENARIO\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN THE STORM DECELERATING AND MOVING IN A CLOCKWISE\r\nLOOP DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nSUGGESTING THAT JERRY MAY NOT GET PICKED UP BY THE NEXT TROUGH IN\r\nTHE WESTERLIES...AND THIS IS ALSO REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 27.0N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 26.6N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 26.3N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 26.2N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 26.3N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 27.3N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 28.5N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 30.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...SOME CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE FORMED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE CENTER IS NOT READILY DISCERNABLE...BUT IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CLOUD\r\nMASS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nENVIRONMENT...IN PARTICULAR THE VERTICAL SHEAR...IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE.  THIS IS INDICATED IN\r\nTHE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  LATER IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE\r\nSEEMINGLY OVER-AGGRESSIVE LGEM AND THE GLOBAL AND HWRF MODELS\r\nTHAT SHOW DISSIPATION OR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM BY 5 DAYS.\r\n\r\nJERRY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE EASTWARD...085/6...BUT THIS MOTION IS\r\nNOT LIKELY TO CONTINUE MUCH LONGER.  THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF JERRY OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...MUCH OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN JERRY MOVING IN A\r\nCLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE CYCLONE COULD BE CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE NEXT 500\r\nMB TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES JERRY\r\nWILL REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 4-5 DAYS...AND RESPOND TO\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...SHOWN BY\r\nTHE ECMWF MODEL...IS FOR JERRY TO WEAKEN TO A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH BY\r\nTHAT TIME AND DRIFT GENERALLY WESTWARD.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 27.3N  44.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 27.0N  44.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 26.7N  45.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 26.7N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 27.2N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 28.5N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 30.0N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 32.0N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 30 2013\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF JERRY HAS EVOLVED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. EARLIER TODAY THE CLOUD PATTERN RESEMBLED A SHEARED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY CONFINED TO THE\r\nEASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENTLY...BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOW MUCH MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON\r\nA DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE STORM DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS HAS APPARENTLY SLACKENED...GIVEN THE MORE SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE.\r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON JERRY. THESE\r\nUNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD LIMIT SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AFTER 72 HOURS...\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE DUE TO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR. IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE SINCE THERE\r\nIS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE RANGING FROM DISSIPATION WITHIN A\r\nFEW DAYS...AS SHOWN BY THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS...TO A HURRICANE \r\nAS INDICATED BY THE LGEM.\r\n \r\nJERRY IS STILL MOVING EASTWARD...BUT IT WILL SOON SLOW DOWN AND\r\nMEANDER WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON WEDNESDAY WHEN SOME RIDGING BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO RECURVE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT LIES\r\nTO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 27.4N  43.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 27.2N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 27.1N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 27.3N  45.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 27.9N  46.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 29.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 30.5N  45.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 33.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR HAS COMPLETELY SQUASHED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF JERRY. A\r\nSHARP MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JERRY IS DROPPING\r\nSOUTHWARD AND IS INCREASING THE SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE...AND ALSO\r\nLIKELY ADVECTING DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. A 0042Z PARTIAL ASCAT-B\r\nSCATTEROMETER OVERPASS...WHICH WAS UNAVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...INDICATED A COUPLE OF 38-KT SURFACE WIND VECTORS IN THE\r\nWESTERN QUADRANT. IT IS ASSUMED THAT SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS EXIST\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE VIGOROUS CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY EXISTED...\r\nSO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN THE MOTION OF JERRY DUE TO THE LACK OF\r\nCONTINUITY IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...0559Z ATMS\r\nAND 0608Z AMSU OVERPASSES SUGGEST THAT JERRY IS MOVING LITTLE. THE\r\nGLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINING IN WEAK STEERING CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24-36\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME ERRATIC MOTION. BY 48 HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER...THE NEXT MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS JUST MOVED OFF\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT JERRY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...AND THAT MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 120\r\nHOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN SHIFTED TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...BUT IT REMAINS WEST OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT THE\r\nJERRY BRIEFLY BECAME ENTANGLED WITH DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 30 SEP\r\nIS NOW EXITING THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG SHEAR ACROSS\r\nTHE CYCLONE CREATED BY THAT LOW AND THE UPPER-TROUGH TO THE NORTH\r\nCOULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING TODAY. HOWEVER...BY 36-48\r\nHOURS...AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR\r\nSOME SLIGHT RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. AFTER THAT...INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE INTENSITY TO LEVEL\r\nOFF...AND POSSIBLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING BY DAY 5. THERE REMAINS A\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE RANGING FROM A WEAK TROPICAL\r\nSTORM IN THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS TO A HURRICANE IN THE LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF DRY\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR AND EXPECTED MODERATE SHEAR FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE\r\nSIDE AND IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 27.2N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 27.2N  43.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 27.5N  44.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 28.2N  44.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 29.0N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 30.7N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 32.0N  37.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 33.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON\r\nDATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40\r\nKT.  ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO\r\nSTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT\r\nMUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.  BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR\r\nIS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR\r\nSOONER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF\r\nWEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTERWARD...THE\r\nSTORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS\r\nIT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES\r\nBETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 28.1N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 28.1N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 28.7N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 29.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 30.3N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 31.5N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 32.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 33.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER BEING SERIOUS DISRUPTED EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nOF THE STORM HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK IN TERMS OF\r\nORGANIZATION.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED SLIGHTLY WITHIN\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THERE IS JUST A LITTLE EVIDENCE\r\nOF BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT JERRY SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO LITTLE OR NO\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO WEAKEN THE\r\nCYCLONE...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST NUMERICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO MOVEMENT SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS STATIONARY.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...JERRY SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD\r\nAND THEN A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN MID-LEVEL\r\nHIGH PRESSURE AREAS TO ITS WEST AND SOUTHEAST.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE\r\nHIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 4 AND 5...AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF\r\nSOLUTION.  THE NEW GFS FORECAST IS EVEN FASTER AND THIS IS A FAIRLY\r\nDRASTIC CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THIS MODEL.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 28.1N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 28.4N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 29.1N  43.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 30.0N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 31.0N  41.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 33.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 34.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 37.0N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 01 2013\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE \r\nAND ORGANIZATION ONCE AGAIN...WITH RECENT SATELLITE DATA ONLY\r\nSHOWING A SMALL BAND OF MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  A TIMELY 2356 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING \r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT. \r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS WHILE JERRY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR.  AFTER THAT TIME...JERRY WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO AN AREA OF STRONG\r\nWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  THIS IS LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING AND\r\nDEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  AN\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD SUCCUMB TO THE\r\nSHEAR AND DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BELOW. \r\n\r\nAFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...IT APPEARS THAT\r\nJERRY HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH TONIGHT AND\r\nWEDNESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nAFTER THAT TIME...JERRY SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN \r\nACCELERATE IN THE MID-LATITUDE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nREMAINS LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF JERRY IN A FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...\r\nOUT OF RESPECT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 28.1N  43.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 28.6N  43.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 29.5N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 30.6N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 31.8N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 34.0N  34.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 37.0N  29.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 41.0N  23.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS\r\nMORNING...MAINLY IN BANDS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND EXPERIMENTAL MULTISPECTRAL AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS UNDERNEATH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WITH DRY\r\nAIR ENTRAINING INTO THE CIRCULATION IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. \r\nTHERE ARE NO RECENT SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES...AND THE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM 6 HOURS AGO.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A WESTWARD DRIFT OR 270/1.  JERRY IS CURRENTLY\r\nSOUTH OF A RIDGE IN THE WESTERLIES.  A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE\r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF EASTERN CANADA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND\r\nWEAKEN THIS RIDGE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JERRY TO BECOME\r\nEMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AS SHOWN BY\r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nIN TERMS OF DIRECTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN SPEED\r\nBETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE FORECAST MOTION BRINGS JERRY OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE SYSTEM TO DECAY.  INDEED...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT JERRY WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY THE 72 HOUR POINT. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST IN SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH 72\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY DISSIPATE.  AN ALTERNATIVE\r\nSCENARIO IS THAT JERRY DISSIPATES MUCH EARLIER AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 28.1N  44.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 28.9N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 29.9N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 31.1N  40.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 32.2N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 34.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 38.0N  27.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 02 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JERRY IS NOT VERY EXTENSIVE AND\r\nCONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE STORM\r\nIS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nMAY NOT BE FULLY TROPICAL.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nCONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT.  JERRY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND EXPERIENCE INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS JERRY\r\nMAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE SUCCUMBING\r\nTO THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A\r\nLITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LGEM GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT JERRY WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN SHOWN\r\nHERE...AND THIS IS CERTAINLY QUITE POSSIBLE.   \r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES ARE ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE EARLIER THIS MORNING...SO THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING.  JERRY IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE 500-MB WESTERLIES.  A BROAD TROUGH IS\r\nAPPROACHING THE AREA...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN\r\nMOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  LATER ON...THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD\r\nCARRY JERRY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE CLOSE TO THAT FROM THE LATEST RUN\r\nOF THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 28.2N  43.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 29.1N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 30.3N  41.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 31.4N  39.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 32.4N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 34.7N  31.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 37.5N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jerry","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY\r\nFROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nGRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nIS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nMODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS\r\nINDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z\r\nAMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER\r\nNORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY\r\nBETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE\r\nLATEST GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 29.3N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 30.2N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 31.5N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 32.6N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 33.6N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 35.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 38.0N  26.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jerry","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...CEASED WITHIN JERRY\r\nTHIS EVENING.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nCORRESPONDINGLY DROPPED...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT\r\n30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION CAN BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT RELIABLY AS THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER CAN BE SEEN IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY NOW\r\nTHAT THE DEEP-LAYER CLOUDINESS HAS SUBSIDED.  THE POSITION\r\nINDICATES A CURRENT MOTION OF 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT.  JERRY IS LOCATED\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT\r\nGETS PICKED UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK MODELS\r\nARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND ARE CENTERED JUST SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS CYCLE...AS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO RESUME TONIGHT DURING THE LATE\r\nNIGHT-EARLY MORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  HOWEVER...AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES NORTHEASTWARD...THIS WILL BRING IT OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS...THROUGH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND INTO STRONGER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC VERTICAL SHEAR.  THUS THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nREINTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO BE SLIM.  AFTER ABOUT TWO DAYS...JERRY\r\nWILL BE TRAVERSING 24C WATERS AND IT SHOULD LOSE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nPERMANENTLY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW.  JERRY IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY DAY FIVE...THOUGH SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT THIS COULD OCCUR A DAY OR TWO SOONER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWRF AND GFDL HURRICANE MODELS AND THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...AND IT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 29.7N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 30.6N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 31.9N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 32.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 33.4N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 36.0N  29.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 38.5N  25.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jerry","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013\r\n \r\nA FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING AROUND THE WELL-\r\nDEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF JERRY EARLY THIS MORNING.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY MAINTAINING ITSELF...\r\nPROBABLY DUE TO DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS CAUSED DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS TO DROP FURTHER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS KEPT AT 30 KT...BASED PRIMARILY UPON PERSISTENCE AND CONTINUITY.\r\nINCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS...AS WELL A RATHER DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG THE PATH\r\nOF THE STORM SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS NOW INDICATED SOONER...AND THERE IS SOME\r\nCHANCE OF THE SYSTEM OPENING UP AS A TROUGH WITHIN TWO DAYS AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE UKMET/ECWMF MODELS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE BEYOND 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE HEADING OF THE STORM IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...BUT THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION IS A BIT FASTER. A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE OF FIXES\r\nSTILL YIELDS A NORTHEASTERLY MOTION ESTIMATE OF 050/08.  JERRY\r\nSHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD\r\nOF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  THE TRACK OF JERRY SHOULD BEND BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND DECELERATE ONCE IT BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE AND MOVES IN\r\nBETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nREPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nGFS...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY STRONGER VORTEX.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 30.2N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 31.3N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 32.4N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 33.4N  34.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 34.4N  32.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 37.5N  28.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Jerry","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013\r\n \r\nJERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT\r\nCONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND\r\nEXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE\r\nENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW\r\nABOUT 050/10.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JERRY SHOULD MOVE\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD\r\nSPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  AFTER\r\nTHE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT\r\nAND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 31.0N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 31.9N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 32.9N  35.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 33.9N  33.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 35.2N  31.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 38.5N  27.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Jerry","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013\r\n \r\nJERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...\r\nALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.  THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS.  REGENERATION IS\r\nUNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12.  POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A\r\nBROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nCENTER.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS \r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 31.8N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 32.6N  36.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 33.7N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 34.8N  32.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 36.0N  30.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-10-03 13:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n800 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOUND A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND SURFACE\r\nWINDS AROUND 50 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nINITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM KAREN. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nDISPLACED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE\r\nINTENSIFY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ONLY SUPPORT\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH SOME\r\nWEAKENING EXPECTED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE\r\nSTORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/11 GIVEN THE RECENT\r\nFORMATION OF THE CENTER. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nNORTHWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THEN\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...HOWEVER THERE IS SIGNIFICANT WEST/EAST\r\nSPREAD IN THE TRACKS...WITH THE ECMWF ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE GFS FARTHEST EAST. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCA\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH LANDFALL. NOTE THAT A TRACK FARTHER\r\nEAST WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER STORM...WHILE KAREN WOULD\r\nLIKELY BE WEAKER IF IT TAKES A TRACK FARTHER WEST. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1300Z 22.0N  87.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 23.4N  88.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 25.4N  88.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 27.0N  88.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 28.3N  88.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 31.0N  87.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 34.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/0600Z 38.5N  77.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n1000 AM CDT THU OCT 03 2013\r\n \r\nKAREN CONTINUES TO HAVE A SOMEWHAT SHEARED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 20 OR SO KT OF SHEAR\r\nANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON SEVERAL BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS IN\r\nTHE 50-55 KT RANGE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT. WITH MODERATE SHEAR\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED\r\nBEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS KAREN APPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT\r\nTHE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE INVOLVED WITH A FRONTAL ZONE BY DAY 4 AND\r\nABSORBED BY THE FRONT BY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STILL A RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN 330/10.\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONINS HAS NOT CHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE\r\nAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS REMAINING WELL EAST OF THE OTHER GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. NOTE THAT A STRONGER STORM WOULD\r\nLIKELY MOVER FARTHER EAST...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD BE MORE\r\nLIKELY TO TAKE A TRACK FARTHER WEST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 22.2N  87.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 23.8N  88.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 25.4N  89.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 26.9N  89.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 28.2N  89.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 31.0N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 35.0N  81.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n400 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KAREN REMAINS LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE...AS\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE REMAINING\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO ANALYZE ABOUT 20 KT\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER KAREN...AND DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN THE\r\nMID/UPPER LEVELS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. DESPITE THESE NEGATIVE\r\nFACTORS...KAREN CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTERS JUST MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 999 MB...AND\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS FROM BOTH THE NOAA AND AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE AIRCRAFT SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 55\r\nKT. MODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...AND ONLY GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS THEN ANTICIPATED AS KAREN\r\nAPPROACHES THE GULF COAST...BUT THE STORM COULD STILL BE NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH AT LANDFALL. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AND THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD. KAREN SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY ABOUT 4 DAYS AND ABSORBED\r\nBY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 330/10 BASED ON\r\nAIRCRAFT FIXES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED...AS KAREN WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. A NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AFTER 48\r\nHOURS AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS\r\nAGAIN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THERE REMAINS\r\nCONSIDERABLE EAST/WEST SPREAD...WITH THE HWRF AND GFS TO THE EAST\r\nAND THE ECMWF TO THE WEST. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nWEST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE BUT STILL LIES A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE LATEST TCVA CONSENSUS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nTHROUGH LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 23.3N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 24.6N  89.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 26.2N  89.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 27.6N  89.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 28.8N  89.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 32.0N  86.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 36.0N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n1000 PM CDT THU OCT 03 2013\r\n \r\nKAREN CONTINUES TO BE A SHEARED CYCLONE WITH A VIGOROUS\r\nCIRCULATION...AND WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE\r\nNORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THERE HAS BEEN AN EXCELLENT COVERAGE\r\nBY BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. BASED ON THAT RECONNAISSANCE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE SHEAR AFFECTING\r\nKAREN IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING. IT\r\nIS BECOMING LESS REALISTIC THAT KAREN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE IN A\r\nDAY OR TWO...BUT GIVING CREDIT TO SOME DYNAMICAL MODELS...LIKE THE\r\nHWRF...WHICH DO SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT KAREN WILL BE ON A WEAKENING\r\nTREND BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4. \r\n\r\nFIXES FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES INDICATE THAT KAREN IS MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. AS A NARROW\r\nRIDGE OVER FLORIDA WEAKENS OR SLIDES EASTWARD...AND A LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OVERALL TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS A TYPICAL RECURVATURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND\r\nSO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. IN FACT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS VERY CLOSELY THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST...NO CHANGE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS\r\nIS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE REVISITED AS KAREN\r\nPROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 24.2N  89.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 25.5N  89.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 26.9N  90.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 28.0N  90.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 29.2N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 32.5N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 36.5N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013\r\n \r\nKAREN IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER.  REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS\r\nRISEN TO 1002 MB...AND THAT BOTH THE FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS\r\nHAVE DECREASED.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS REDUCED TO A POSSIBLY GENEROUS 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9.  KAREN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS\r\nRIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES\r\nEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD\r\nCAUSE KAREN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD...WITH\r\nTHE BIG QUESTION BEING THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN.  THE\r\nUKMET...NAVGEM...AND CANADIAN MODELS DELAY THE TURN UNTIL AFTER\r\nKAREN MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.  THE GFS SHOWS THE\r\nSHARPEST TURN...AND IT CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.  THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF ARE\r\nBETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH LANDFALL FORECASTS FROM THE MOUTH OF\r\nTHE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.  OVERALL...\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS SLOWER THAN IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO...AND THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST DURING THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THESE TRENDS WITH A SLIGHT\r\nWESTWARD SHIFT AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  GIVEN THE SPREAD OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE...THE FORECAST OF THE LANDFALL POSITION IS LOW\r\nCONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER PROBLEMATIC.  FIRST...KAREN IS\r\nLIKELY TO INTERACT WITH A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS...WHICH MIGHT PROVIDE SOME SUPPORT FOR RENEWED CONVECTION.\r\nSECOND...THE SHEAR MAY DIMINISH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH\r\nCOULD ALLOW FOR INTENSIFICATION...ESPECIALLY IF KAREN TURNS\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WHILE STILL OVER WATER.  THE ECMWF SHOWS ABOUT 10 MB\r\nOF DEEPENING AFTER RECURVATURE...AND THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL\r\nMODELS SHOW MORE.  BASED ON THESE MODELS AND CURRENT TRENDS...THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH\r\nTHROUGH 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY 48 HOURS.  AFTER LANDFALL...KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN AND\r\nEVENTUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT MERGES WITH THE DEEP-LAYER\r\nTROUGH.  \r\n \r\nSINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...NO\r\nCHANGE IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS IS NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.  THIS\r\nWILL BE REVISITED AS KAREN PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 24.9N  89.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 25.9N  90.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 27.0N  90.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 28.0N  90.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 29.1N  89.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 32.5N  84.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 37.5N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER BEING DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN...\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...BUT THE CYCLONE IS STILL BEING\r\nAFFECTED BY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED\r\nINTO THE CYCLONE. THE LAST CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE\r\nAIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...AND BASED ON THE LATEST ROUND OF AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 45 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT DOES\r\nNOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...WITH MODERATE\r\nSHEAR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...IF\r\nTHE SHEAR DOES LESSEN...EVEN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...DEEP\r\nCONVECTION COULD RE-DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE CENTER AND ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION...BY 48 HOURS UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO 55 KT BY 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN 325 AND 330 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 9 OR 10 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE FUTURE TRACK WILL BE\r\nQUITE SENSITIVE TO THE STRUCTURE OF KAREN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. IN THE SHORT TERM A WEAKER SHALLOWER SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED\r\nMORE TOWARD THE LEFT BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE A DEEPER MORE\r\nVERTICALLY COHERENT CYCLONE WOULD TURN NORTHWARD MORE QUICKLY DUE\r\nTO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT APPEARANCE OF\r\nKAREN AND THE CONTINUED SHEAR...THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS TOWARD THE UKMET AND\r\nECMWF MODELS...WHICH SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A NORTHEASTWARD TURN IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...BUT WITH LARGE\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE TURN OCCURS AND\r\nSIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. AT 36\r\nHOURS AND BEYOND THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD AND THE DEPENDENCE OF THE TRACK ON\r\nTHE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF KAREN...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS\r\nALONG THE COAST...IS LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR KAREN AND\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT. THESE DATA WILL BE\r\nINCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE...AND HOPEFULLY IMPROVE THE\r\nANALYSIS OF THE ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE STORM.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE NHC TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. GIVEN\r\nTHE WEAKENING TREND AND THE REDUCTION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...IT\r\nHAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS LIKELKY THAT KAREN WILL REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...THE HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE\r\nCHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING LATER TODAY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 25.6N  90.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 26.6N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 27.7N  90.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 28.6N  90.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 29.8N  88.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 33.5N  83.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n400 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER EARLIER\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN IS AGAIN EXPOSED\r\nWEST OF THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY OF KAREN\r\nREMAINS 45 KT...AND A CENTER DROP FROM THE PLANE REPORTED A PRESSURE\r\nOF 1003 MB. MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN LITTLE\r\nOVERALL INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH\r\nSHORT TERM CHANGES IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN SOME\r\nSHORT TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLUTION...AND SHOW THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WEAKENING OR DISSIPATING ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO. IN PARTICULAR THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH ITS FORECAST OF KAREN\r\nAFTER DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET...WHICH SHOWED 200-MB\r\nWINDS WEST OF KAREN STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WERE\r\nINCORPORATED INTO THE 12Z ANALYSIS. AFTER 24 HOURS...KAREN COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE DUE TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE\r\nAHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...BUT SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS\r\nNOT EXPECTED. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT KAREN COULD BECOME\r\nCOMPLETELY DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKEN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF KAREN HAS VARIED DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THE\r\nCONVECTION WAS TO THE CENTER. AFTER MOVING MORE NORTHWARD EARLIER\r\nTHE AFTERNOON THE CENTER HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD AS IT BECAME EXPOSED.\r\nSMOOTHING THROUGH THESE SHORT TERM VARIATIONS...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 335/06. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE HEADING OF THE STORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...IN PARTICULAR THE GFS HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AND IS NOW\r\nCLOSER TO THE ECMWF. HOWEVER...THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED WITH THE GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND SLOWER OVERALL.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 24 HOURS AND THEN\r\nA SHARP NORTHEASTWARD TURN BY 36 HOURS AS KAREN FEELS THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nTOWARD THE SLOWER MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS FASTER AND TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE ECMWF AND GFS AFTER 24 HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS\r\nOF THE TRACK FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE DISTRIBUTION OF IMPACTS\r\nALONG THE COAST...REMAINS LOW.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN\r\nCHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER\r\nTO DESTIN FLORIDA...AND DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE 12Z HWRF RUN SHOWED CONSIDERABLY LESS INTENSIFICATION WITH KAREN\r\nCOMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AFTER ASSIMILATING DATA FROM THE FROM THE\r\nNOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR. THIS MARKS THE FIRST TIME DOPPLER\r\nRADAR DATA HAVE BEEN ASSIMILATIED INTO AN OPERATIONAL HURRICANE\r\nMODEL IN REAL TIME. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 25.9N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 26.9N  90.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 27.9N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 28.8N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 29.9N  87.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 33.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013\r\n \r\nKAREN HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND NOW\r\nCONSISTS OF A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME LINEAR\r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANES INDICATE THAT THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...BUT THE \r\nWINDS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. TROPICAL\r\nSTORMS RARELY RECOVER AFTER BEING STRONGLY DAMAGED BY\r\nSHEAR...ESPECIALLY IF THE ENVIRONMENT IS AS DRY AS IT IS OVER THE\r\nWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE VIGOROUS CIRCULATION...AND THE\r\nLOW PRESSURE...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS KAREN WITH 40 KNOTS THROUGH\r\n24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...WHEN THE CYCLONE TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST...\r\nTHERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR KAREN TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSLIGHTLY IF THE SHEAR RELAXES AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT KAREN\r\nREMAINS DECOUPLED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND WEAKENS AT A FASTER\r\nPACE. THE LATTER SCENARIO IS BECOMING MORE REALISTIC GIVEN THE\r\nCURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST\r\nOPTED TO FOLLOW THE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING INDICATED BY THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS. KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 72 HOURS\r\nAND THEN ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nKAREN HESITATED A FEW HOURS AGO...BUT NOW IT HAS BEGUN TO MOVE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. KAREN\r\nIS ABOUT TO BE INFLUENCED BY THE FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL MAKE A SHARP TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nTHERE IS CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS \r\nAGREE WITH THIS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY.  \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 26.4N  90.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 27.1N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 28.1N  90.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 29.0N  88.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 30.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 34.5N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n400 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013\r\n \r\nKAREN REMAINS A SHEARED CYCLONE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTIVE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 80 N MI SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nEARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE WINDS OF AT BEST 35 KT IN THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THERE ARE RECENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE\r\nRESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OF STRONGER WINDS IN THE\r\nCONVECTION...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR HOW REPRESENTATIVE THESE WINDS ARE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT BASED ON THE\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA.\r\n \r\nKAREN JOGGED A BIT NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...BUT\r\nIT APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF 330/7.\r\nTHE LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY STEERING KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nTODAY AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE\r\nEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nKAREN TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD ON THE TIMING OF THE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TURN.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD\r\nBASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IT CALLS FOR THE\r\nCENTER TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN\r\n24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A FINAL LANDFALL IN ALABAMA OR THE\r\nWESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 36-48 HOURS.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SEVERAL POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR THE LOW CONFIDENCE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.  THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...AND THE ONE USED IN\r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...IS THAT KAREN REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM\r\nWITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH UNTIL FINAL LANDFALL.  ONE\r\nALTERNATIVE IS POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO\r\nRE-DEVELOPED CENTRAL CONVECTION.  WHILE THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN...THEY\r\nARE FOR THE MOST PART SHOWING NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS KAREN\r\nAPPROACHES LANDFALL.   A SECOND ALTERNATIVE IS THAT KAREN WEAKENS\r\nBELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO EITHER LACK OF\r\nCONVECTION OR THE START OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...KAREN SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT\r\nMERGES WITH THE COLD FRONT.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 27.1N  91.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 27.6N  91.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 28.4N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 29.5N  89.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 31.2N  86.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 35.5N  80.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF KAREN REMAINS EXPOSED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON SEVERAL SFMR\r\nWINDS AROUND 35 KT FROM THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT MISSIONS IN KAREN\r\nEARLY THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT. THE NEXT\r\nAIRCRAFT MISSIONS INTO KAREN THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP DETERMINE IF\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS\r\nUNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM WEAKENING\r\nTO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HOURS. THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN IMPACTS\r\nBETWEEN A 30-KT DEPRESSION AND A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM...AND\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE GUSTS COULD EASILY OCCUR IN CONVECTIVE BANDS.\r\nKAREN SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT SHORTLY AFTER\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nKAREN HAS BEEN MOVED QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS TO THE LEFT AND AHEAD OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW\r\n355/07...AS KAREN HAS NOW TURNED NORTHWARD. A SHARP NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTURN IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WITH AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. THE MORE\r\nNORTHERLY INITIAL POSITION RESULTS IN A NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE NHC\r\nTRACK...WHICH NOW TAKES THE CENTER OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND\r\nTHEN ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH 36 HOURS BEFORE MOVING FARTHER\r\nINLAND. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS PERFORMED\r\nQUITE WELL WITH KAREN...TAKES A WEAKER SYSTEM ALMOST DUE EASTWARD\r\nAFTER 24 HOURS...AND THIS MOTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF THE CYCLONE\r\nDECOUPLES AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n \r\nUSERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST NOW THAT\r\nKAREN IS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH THE CONVECTION WELL REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER...SINCE THE TRACK OF THE CENTER WILL HAVE LESS BEARING ON\r\nWHERE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL OCCUR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 27.9N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 28.7N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 29.4N  90.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 30.3N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 31.3N  85.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karen","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013\r\n \r\nKAREN HAS NOT GOTTEN ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRY\r\nAIR AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION\r\nRE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FOR A TIME...THE CENTER HAS ACTUALLY\r\nBECOME LESS DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF\r\nHOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nFOUND A VERY SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE SFMR\r\nNORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO KAREN IS MAINTAINED AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION ALOFT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN...WITH PEAK 850-MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN KAREN LOSING STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION STATUS IN 24 HOURS. AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...\r\nREMNANT LOW STATUS IN EXPECTED IN 36-48 HOURS...AND KAREN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IF THE CENTER OF KAREN\r\nLOSES DEFINITION...THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER.\r\n \r\nTHE MOTION OF KAREN CONTINUES TO BE IRREGULAR. AFTER MOVING NEAR \r\n10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE STALLED THIS AFTERNOON AS\r\nCONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE\r\nTRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS CYCLE...WITH THESE MODELS ALL SHOWING\r\nKAREN TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD\r\nOF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nSOUTHWARD TOWARD THESE MODELS AND SHOWS A TRACK NEAR OR OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF\r\nCOAST THROUGH DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 28.1N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 28.6N  91.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 29.3N  89.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 29.6N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 29.7N  84.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karen","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013\r\n \r\nKAREN HAS ESSENTIALLY REMAINED STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nAND THAT LACK OF MOTION...COUPLED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nAHEAD OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH...HAS INCREASED THE\r\nSHEAR SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THE RESULT IS THAT\r\nCONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SATELLITE\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB SUPPORTED KEEPING KAREN AS A BORDERLINE\r\nTROPICAL STORM AT 00Z...BUT THE LACK OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nSINCE THEN REQUIRES A DOWNGRADE TO DEPRESSION STATUS AT THE 03Z\r\nADVISORY TIME. GIVEN THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nGET EVEN STRONGER OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS...RE-STRENGTHENING BACK TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS IS NOT LIKELY...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE\r\nMID-LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRIER AS\r\nWELL...PREVENTING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE\r\nCENTER. AS A RESULT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nTHE STATIONARY MOTION OF KAREN THE PAST 6-9 HOURS HAS BEEN DUE TO A\r\nNORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH HAS\r\nBLOCKED ANY EASTWARD MOTION BY THE CYCLONE. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN\r\nIS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...\r\nALLOWING KAREN OR ITS REMNANTS TO MOVE IN A EASTWARD TO \r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD DIRECTION UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES IN 48-72\r\nHOURS OR IS ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL TVCA...AND SHOWS KAREN PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nEXTREME SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND\r\nREMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AFTER THAT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 28.1N  91.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 28.7N  90.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 29.1N  88.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 29.3N  86.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 29.5N  83.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karen","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nDISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SURFACE\r\nSYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25\r\nKT.  GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND\r\nDRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND\r\nDISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nIT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2.  KAREN\r\nOR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 28.3N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 29.0N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 29.8N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 30.4N  85.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Karen","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013\r\n \r\nEARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nKAREN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED. AS A\r\nRESULT...KAREN IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF KAREN HAVE BEEN MOVING QUICKLY\r\nEASTWARD THIS MORNING AT AROUND 11 KT...AND SHOULD CONTINUE ON A\r\nGENERAL EASTWARD TRACK AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT UNTIL THEY ARE OVERTAKEN BY THE\r\nFRONT IN A DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nTHE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE REMNANT CENTER...AND REGENERATON IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO EVEN\r\nHIGHER VALUES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ADVECTING EASTWARD\r\nACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. \r\n\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF KAREN CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. INTERESTS ALONG THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN GULF COAST CAN FIND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IN PRODUCTS\r\nFROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 28.1N  89.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nBERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LONG CURVED BAND OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN\r\nASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS BECOMING BETTER\r\nDEFINED...AND THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS\r\nINITIATING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM. A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nOF T2.0 FROM TAFB IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/07.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-\r\nLEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR 27N 47W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL\r\nFLOW ALONG 30N AND TURN EAST-NORTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NEAR BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE\r\nOF AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE POSITION OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR LOW ENOUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TO ALLOW\r\nFOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM\r\nWATERS.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR THAT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE.\r\nDISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD OCCUR\r\nSOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT\r\nTHROUGH 36 HOURS AND THE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 28.0N  55.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 28.9N  54.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 29.6N  52.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 30.1N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 30.4N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 31.4N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING. A CURVED BAND CONSISTING OF COLD-\r\nTOPPED CONVECTION HAS LENGTHENED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED...EVEN\r\nTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED AT THE\r\nWESTERN TIP. IN ADDITION...A 1254 UTC ASCAT-A PASS HAD A COUPLE OF\r\n34-KT WIND VECTORS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE ASCAT PASSES AND FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY HAVE\r\nALLOWED FOR A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION WHICH IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 030/06...TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.\r\nTHE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME.  LORENZO SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nAROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NEAR 30N.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A MORE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTERLY INITIAL MOTION...AND IS JUST AHEAD OF THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BETTER MATCH THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nSOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE IS OVER WARM WATERS AND IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. BY 36 HOURS...SHIPS OUTPUT SHOWS A\r\nCONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS RAISED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS\r\nGENERALLY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A BIT LOWER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 28.9N  54.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 29.5N  53.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 29.9N  52.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 30.3N  51.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 30.9N  49.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 33.0N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH LORENZO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED CURVED\r\nBAND...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAS A RESULT OF 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES WHICH SHOWED\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT.  ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER SHEAR AFFECTING LORENZO SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nAND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP\r\nDRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE TO INFILTRATE THE CIRCULATION. \r\nTHEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER.  THE SHEAR...COLDER\r\nWATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.  IF THE ECMWF AND UKMET\r\nMODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE ABOUT A DAY\r\nEARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 055/8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT JUST OUTSIDE\r\nOF THE STRONGEST STEERING FLOW.  THEREFORE...LORENZO IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nACCELERATE JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT QUITE AS\r\nFAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 29.3N  53.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 29.7N  52.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 29.9N  50.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 30.2N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 30.7N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 32.5N  45.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS DEEP CLOUDINESS.  THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nSUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 35 KT.  LORENZO COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY.  THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VERTICAL\r\nCIRCULATION BECOMING HIGHLY TILTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE\r\nSTRONG SHEAR.  IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF LORENZO SHOULD AID IN THE\r\nWEAKENING PROCESS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS OCCURRING SOONER.\r\n\r\nLORENZO IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7.  AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES IN THE\r\nWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE\r\nWEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 29.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 29.7N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 29.9N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 30.2N  49.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 30.8N  48.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 32.8N  45.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT\r\nAND THIS MORNING.  A BURST OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS\r\nMORPHED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BAND WRAPPING AROUND\r\nTHE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  A SERIES OF MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES HAVE ALSO SHOWN A MID-LEVEL EYE THAT IS NOT COINCIDENT WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR.  UNLIKE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nUNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY.  A BLEND OF TAFB/SAB DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES IS USED TO RAISE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LORENZO...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO OCCUR\r\nSOON SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVE OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDISRUPT THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF CIRCULATION AND CAUSE A\r\nDECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY\r\nBECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONT BY 72 HOURS. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT\r\nFOR THE GREATER INITIAL WIND SPEED...BUT LIKE THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING BY 48 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS NOW\r\nFORECAST A DAY SOONER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nLORENZO HAS BEEN MOVING WITH MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF\r\nMOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/07. THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED EAST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO\r\nBETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO\r\nTHE NORTH. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN ABOUT\r\n48 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A\r\nCOLD FRONT. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR RIGHT AS THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 29.5N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 29.6N  50.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 29.8N  49.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 30.3N  48.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 31.3N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n \r\nTHE EARLIER TREND OF ORGANIZATION ENDED LATE THIS MORNING...AND\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN SOME DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO\r\nSINCE THAT TIME. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE\r\nASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45\r\nKT. A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD\r\nREACH LORENZO WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO SHEARING APART IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE REMNANT CIRCULATION BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 48 AND 72\r\nHOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO IS LIKELY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE\r\nEAST OR 085/08. HOWEVER...CIRRUS CLOUD DEBRIS HAS BEEN OBSCURING\r\nTHE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING...MAKING THE INITIAL POSITION AND\r\nMOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RATIONALE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED. LORENZO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK\r\nSHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY INITIAL MOTION\r\nAND NEAR BUT RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 29.4N  51.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 29.5N  50.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 29.8N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 30.5N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 31.7N  46.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n \r\nSHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT\r\nDEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR LORENZO HAS TURNED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nINCREASED TO NEARLY 25 KT.  AS A CONSEQUENCE...MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO ASCAT PASSES OVER LORENZO SINCE THIS\r\nTIME YESTERDAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON\r\nESTIMATES FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT OUT OF THE NORTH\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS...AND WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BEGIN VERY\r\nSOON.  THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER\r\nWATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48\r\nHOURS.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND\r\nIT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nLORENZO IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND JUST\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF FAST MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH ARE STEERING\r\nTHE CYCLONE EASTWARD AT 085/8 KT.  WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD\r\nEXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE ON STEERING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE\r\nSHALLOW...AND LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 36 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THERE ARE\r\nSOME SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MODELS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION COMPARED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL\r\nSCENARIOS AND IS THEREFORE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCA...ESPECIALLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 29.6N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 29.8N  49.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 30.3N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 31.4N  47.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 32.6N  45.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013\r\n \r\nA TRMM PASS FROM 0247Z NICELY SHOWED THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW- AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  DESPITE THE\r\nSHEAR...LORENZO IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0...45 KT.  AN ASCAT\r\nPASS FROM 00Z MISSED THE CENTER BUT DID INDICATE THAT\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND VERY FAR IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nINCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SHARPLY DECREASING...\r\nHOWEVER BY THAT POINT LORENZO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATERS.  CONSEQUENTLY...A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED. \r\nLORENZO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND WITH\r\nANY LUCK...SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST THINKING IS UNCHANGED.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  AS THE SHEAR INCREASES\r\nAND THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINLY BLENDS THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 29.6N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 30.0N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 30.6N  47.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 31.6N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 32.7N  45.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS.  BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND\r\nCI-NUMBERS...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX BRIEFLY IN\r\n24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND COMES\r\nIN PHASE WITH LORENZO.  BY THAT TIME HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTHAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT IT WILL\r\nBE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE\r\nCOMPLETELY THEREAFTER.  THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL\r\nGUIDANCE.   \r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING\r\nEASTWARD NEAR 5 KT.  LORENZO IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN\r\nSIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  ASIDE FROM THE SLOWER\r\nMOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE MOSTLY THE SAME. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST\r\nOF LORENZO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS...ALONG WITH FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO OR ITS\r\nREMNANT LOW TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 29.5N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 29.9N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 30.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 31.5N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 32.7N  44.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013\r\n \r\nLORENZO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...\r\nWITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT\r\n40 KT WHICH IS THE MEAN OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nBECOME EVEN HIGHER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE\r\nTEMPORARILY RELAXING WHEN A 200-MB ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER LORENZO\r\nIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nPROBABLY HAVE BEEN SO DISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE\r\nTO MAKE A COMEBACK.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nLATEST HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS...AND LORENZO\r\nSHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF NOT\r\nSOONER.  \r\n\r\nLORENZO HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY AND JUST SOUTH OF EAST TODAY. \r\nNONETHELESS...ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST WITHIN 12 HOURS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT\r\nBUILDING OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LORENZO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 29.3N  48.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 29.9N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 30.8N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 31.8N  46.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 33.1N  44.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013\r\n \r\nLORENZO IS ALMOST DONE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nBLASTED BY 30 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nESSENTIALLY VANISHED WITHIN THE PAST HOUR.  BASED ON A\r\nCONSENSUS OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND THE OBJECTIVE ADT...LORENZO IS NOW DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE SHEAR IS ACTUALLY FORECAST TO DIMINISH DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE WEST OF LORENZO\r\nSLIDES EAST AND BECOMES COLLOCATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...\r\nCOLDER WATERS AND DRY AIR SHOULD PREVENT RESTRENGTHENING.  ASSUMING\r\nSIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...LORENZO WOULD LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON THURSDAY. \r\nTHE LOW SHOULD THEN DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME\r\nLATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 085/4 KT.  LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN SITUATED NORTH OF LORENZO IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE REPLACED BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT\r\nVERY SOON.  THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAINTAIN THAT HEADING\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BETWEEN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 29.5N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 30.1N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 31.0N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 32.0N  45.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 33.1N  43.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013\r\n \r\nLORENZO IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE\r\nDEPRESSION WAS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING\r\nYESTERDAY...BUT A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS RECENTLY\r\nDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED\r\nREMAINS 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES\r\nTO AFFECT LORENZO...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE CONVECTION FROM\r\nORGANIZING. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SLACKEN DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...DRY AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO LOSE STRENGTH. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS TURNING TO THE LEFT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/4. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN\r\nAPPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nUNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nLATEST ECMWF RUN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 29.8N  47.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 30.4N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 31.4N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 32.5N  44.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Lorenzo","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132013\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013\r\n \r\nDRY AIR AND NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON LORENZO.  THE\r\nSYSTEM HAS NOT HAD ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS\r\nAND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS.  AS A RESULT...LORENZO HAS\r\nDEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25\r\nKT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A\r\nRECENT ASCAT PASS.  ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nDECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DRY AIR AND COOLING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW\r\nTO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING\r\nEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION AS IT REMAINS\r\nWITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 30.2N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 31.0N  46.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 32.0N  45.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 33.0N  44.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-11-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 AM EDT MON NOV 18 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER OF A LARGE GALE-AREA LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC WELL TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.  FRONTAL BOUNDARIES\r\nNEAR THE CENTER APPEAR TO HAVE DISSIPATED AND SO ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.  ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAVING RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION...THE SYSTEM IS STILL WELL-EMBEDDED WITHIN AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW AND THE MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. \r\nAS A RESULT...THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM\r\nRATHER THAN A TROPICAL STORM...AT LEAST FOR NOW.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD...OR 320/08 KT. NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE\r\nRIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE AZORES. THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nPOSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ON TUESDAY WHEN THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES UNDERNEATH A 200 MB LOW/TROUGH. HOWEVER...BY 48 HORUS\r\nAND BEYOND...A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS\r\nOF CANADA AND THE UNITED SATES IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE MELISSA TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...MELISSA IS FORECAST OT INTERACT\r\nWITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPENING TROUGH AND TURN BACK TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND NORTHWEST OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.\r\n\r\nMELISSA HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN...AND THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THE WEAKENING SHEAR SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER...BUT ALSO ALLOW FOR THE\r\nTRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE ICON INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT\r\nOUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MELISSA COULD ATTAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN\r\n36-48 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS AT A MINIMUM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 29.3N  53.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 30.2N  54.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 31.3N  54.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 33.6N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 36.6N  48.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 42.8N  39.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 50.0N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/1200Z 55.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-11-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n500 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF MELISSA...ALBEIT\r\nSOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED. WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME\r\nESTABLISHED IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE INNER-CORE REGION...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. IN ADDITION...EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES AT 1314Z AND\r\n1408Z INDICATED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED\r\nDOWN TO LESS THAN 80 NMI AND MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 50-51 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER...BOTH OVERPASSES MISSED THE INNER\r\nCORE WIND FIELD...WHICH MEANS THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS COULD\r\nBE SMALLER AND THE PEAK WINDS COULD BE STRONGER. AFTER MELISSA\r\nPASSED JUST EAST OF DRIFTING BUOY 41999 AT 1000Z...WHICH REPORTED A\r\nPRESSURE OF 989.4 MB...THE PRESSURE AT THE BUOY HAS REMAINED AT OR\r\nBELOW 993 MB SINCE ABOUT 1400Z AS MELISSA HAS MOVED FARTHER\r\nAWAY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STILL BE DEEPENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING THROUGH 36 H.\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA MOVING\r\nSLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THEN\r\nACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 H. MELISSA WILL LIKELY REMAIN A\r\nSEPARATE ENTITY THROUGH 120 H AND NOT BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nLIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.  THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRACK IS BASED ON INPUT FROM THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n \r\nMELISSA HAS ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SO TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER. ALTHOUGH SSTS WILL BE\r\nDECREASING FROM THE CURRENT 27C TO AROUND 22-23C BY 36-48 H...THE\r\n500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR -13C...WHICH IS MUCH COLDER THAN A\r\nTYPICAL TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE...AND THAT SHOULD HELP TO MAINTAIN \r\nUNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND THE FORMATION OF ADDITONAL CONVECTION IN\r\nTHE INNER CORE REGION. AS A RESULT...MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...THE\r\nGFS-BASED SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS NOW INDICATING THAT THE 850-200\r\nMB VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DROP SHARPLY FROM THE CURRENT 30 KT TO\r\nLESS THAN 10 KT IN THE 18-24 H TIME FRAME...AND THAT IS WHEN THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN OBTAIN\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS AS\r\nMELISSA MOVES OVER SSTS LESS THAN 20C...INTO A DRIER AND MORE\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS...AND EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR\r\nAHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EAST COAST\r\nOF NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 29.8N  54.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 30.7N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 32.3N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 34.9N  50.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 38.0N  46.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 44.5N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 50.0N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  23/1800Z 57.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-11-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 PM AST MON NOV 18 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN MELISSA REMAINS QUITE ASYMMETRIC WITH A NARROW\r\nBAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 60-90 NM ALONG\r\nWITH A LARGER BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE A FEW HUNDRED MILES\r\nFROM THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MELISSA REMAINS\r\nINTERTWINED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...THUS A SUBTROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS STILL APPEARS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.  A TIMELY 0030 UTC\r\nPARTIAL ASCAT-A PASS PROVIDED PEAK WINDS OF ABOUT 45 KT.  THIS\r\nALONG WITH THE TAFB HEBERT-POTEAT SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION OF\r\n3.0...45-50 KT...HELPED TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nMELISSA IS MOVING AT 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD VEER\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS A\r\nSHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA CURRENT HELPS KICK OUT MELISSA\r\nINTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR...BUT THEN DIVERGES DEPENDING IN PART ON\r\nHOW MUCH EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS.  THE GFS AND DEPENDENT\r\nMESOSCALE HURRICANE MODELS INDICATE AN EARLIER TRANSITION...WHICH\r\nTHEN WRAPS MELISSA NORTHWARD QUICKER.  THE ECMWF AND NAVGEM KEEP\r\nMELISSA FARTHER EAST IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW AND DISSIPATE IT BEFORE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH THREE DAYS...BUT THEN FASTER AND\r\nFARTHER EAST THEREAFTER.  THE EXTRATROPICAL TRACK IS BASED IN LARGE\r\nPART UPON INPUT FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nMELISSA HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE SHEAR IS PROJECTED TO LESSEN FOR ABOUT A DAY\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER LUKEWARM WATERS.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nENOUGH CONVECTION TO FORM OVER THE CENTER AND A DEEP WARM CORE TO\r\nDEVELOP FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION TO OCCUR...AS ALSO INDICATED BY THE\r\nFSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS.  IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE\r\nRAPIDLY DROPPING SSTS THAT MELISSA WILL ENCOUNTER COUPLED WITH MUCH\r\nSTRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO CEASE. \r\nTHUS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW IS INDICATED AT 48\r\nHOURS...EVEN THOUGH A FULL EXTRATROPICAL STAGE IS PREDICTED TO\r\nOCCUR AROUND THREE DAYS.  BY DAY FIVE...MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR A MORE CONFIDENT\r\nASSESSMENT OF THE 34 AND 50 KT WIND RADII.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 30.3N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 31.3N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 33.6N  52.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 36.4N  48.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 39.8N  43.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 46.0N  33.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 53.5N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-11-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n500 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013\r\n \r\nMELISSA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS NOT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION...A FEW\r\nBANDS HAVE BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER\r\nDURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD\r\nTO 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING MORE CIRCULAR AND THE CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO BE\r\nCONTRACTING WHILE IT SEPARATES FROM THE NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A\r\nDECREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS COULD ALLOW\r\nMELISSA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE AND TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD COME TO AN END IN 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nWHEN THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER\r\nAND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. MELISSA IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME\r\nPOST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 18 C.\r\n \r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH...WITH THE LATEST\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 360/8 KT. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE\r\nMOVING CLOSER TO MELISSA...AND WILL HELP ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...THERE IS A NOTABLE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW THE POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT OF MELISSA INTERACTS WITH THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE GFS\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW THE CYCLONE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE TROUGH OR LOW...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING MORE EASTWARD IN THE WESTERLIES. THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE\r\nTO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED SCENARIOS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 31.2N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 32.6N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 35.3N  50.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 38.4N  45.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 41.3N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 46.5N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 52.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-11-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 AM AST TUE NOV 19 2013\r\n \r\nVARIOUS SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MELISSA\r\nIS LOCATED ABOUT 20 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATIONS. HOWEVER...SOME WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IN THE INNER\r\nCORE REGION HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE APPEARS TO BE SEPARATING FROM THE ELONGATED PARENT CLOUD\r\nBAND THAT IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF MELISSA. THESE INDICATORS\r\nSUGGEST THAT MELISSA IS TRYING TO MAKE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT BASED\r\nON A 55-KT SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY APPROACHING BERMUDA FROM THE\r\nWEST SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MELISSA NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE\r\nNEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND CONTINUE THAT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. BY\r\n96-120 HOURS...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM...AND CEASE TO EXIST\r\nAS A SEPARATE ENTITY. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nJUXTAPOSED DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS WHEN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE AT ITS LOWEST VALUE OF AROUND 10 KT. THIS SHOULD\r\nHELP MELISSA TO TRANSITION FROM A SUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IT IS\r\nSTILL POSSIBLE THAT MELISSA COULD OBTAIN HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE\r\nTHE CYCLONE REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MOVES INTO A\r\nDRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.\r\n\r\nTRACK...INTENSITY...AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STAGE AT 48 HOURS AND BEYOND WERE COORDINATED WITH\r\nTHE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 31.9N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 33.9N  52.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 36.6N  48.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 39.5N  43.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 42.2N  37.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 46.5N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 53.2N  26.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-11-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n500 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013\r\n \r\nMELISSA APPEARS TO BE ON THE CUSP OF MAKING THE TRANSITION FROM A\r\nSUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. TWO EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASSES\r\nCAPTURED THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...WHICH INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD HAD WEAKENED AND THAT THE INNER-CORE WIND\r\nFIELD HAD CONTRACTED INWARD WITH THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS NOW AT\r\nABOUT 40-50 NMI. IN ADDITION...AN 1119 UTC AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED\r\nTHAT A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER. THESE SATELLITE INDICATORS WOULD SUGGEST THAT\r\nMELISSA WAS NOW A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE AMSU DATA ALSO\r\nREVEALED THAT THERE WAS STILL A STRATOSPHERIC CONNECTION TO THE\r\nWARM CORE. THIS...PLUS THE LACK OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nWELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...ARGUES FOR KEEPING MELISSA A\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE ASCAT PASSES MISSED THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE LIKELY OCCURRING IN SOME\r\nVIGOROUS CONVECTION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 55 KT\r\nBASED ON A SUBTROPICAL SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...AND\r\nEARLIER 53-56 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM CIRA AND CIMSS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 040/14 KT. MELISSA HAS FINALLY\r\nMADE THE MUCH ANTICIPATED TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A STRONG\r\nCOLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE CYCLONE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AND MERGING WITH A\r\nFRONTAL SYSTEM IN 4-5 DAYS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCA AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DROPPED SHARPLY TO ABOUT 7 KT...WHICH HAS\r\nALLOWED THE LOW- AND MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS TO\r\nFINALLY BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THE ONLY THING PREVENTING\r\nMELISSA FROM MAKING THE TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE\r\nLACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZING AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...SHALLOW TO MODERATE CONVECTION HAS BEEN \r\nDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nINCREASE IN THE DEPTH AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION WOULD ALLOW\r\nMELISSA TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND ALSO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATER\r\nAND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN 24-36 HOURS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. BY 48 HOURS...INCREASING VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR SHOULD ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS AND ALSO CAUSE\r\nMELISSA TO TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.\r\n \r\nTRACK...INTENSITY... AND WIND RADII FORECASTS DURING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STAGE WERE COORDINATED WITH THE NOAA OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 33.0N  53.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 34.9N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 37.4N  46.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 40.1N  41.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 42.4N  35.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 47.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 53.5N  24.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-11-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 PM AST TUE NOV 19 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MELISSA IS LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN A FEW\r\nHOURS AGO...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION FORMING NEAR AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY MORE\r\nTROPICAL THAN EARLIER...SO IT IS BEING KEPT AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH ASCAT\r\nDATA AND THE LATEST TAFB SATELLITE ESTIMATE.  ALTHOUGH MELISSA IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS SOON...A LARGE INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AND SOME NON-TROPICAL FORCING COULD OFFSET THE\r\nDECREASING WATER TEMPERATURES.  THUS LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nNHC PREDICTION...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MELISSA COULD\r\nSTILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE MOVING\r\nOVER COLDER WATERS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER 48 HOURS DUE\r\nTO EXTREMELY COLD WATER AND LOSS OF BAROCLINIC FORCING.  MELISSA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS\r\nDUE TO THE COLDER WATERS...AND INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 15 KT.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON MELISSA ACCELERATING TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 48H AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE LATEST CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD...\r\nAND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.  THE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE\r\nABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW AND/OR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WITHIN\r\n96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 33.6N  52.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 35.7N  49.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 38.4N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 40.8N  37.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 43.0N  31.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 48.0N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 54.0N  23.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-11-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n500 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CENTER OF MELISSA SINCE ABOUT 0400 UTC. THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT MELISSA COULD BE NEARING THE EXPECTED TRANSITION FROM A\r\nSUBTROPICAL TO A TROPICAL STORM. NONETHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS NOT CHANGED...BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nFROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nNOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AS MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATER AND REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FOLLOWING THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE. POST-TROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOCCUR IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHEN THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 20C.\r\n \r\nMELISSA IS ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/20. A CONTINUED FAST NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHILE MELISSA REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  DISSIPATION IS NOW\r\nPREDICTED TO OCCUR IN 4 DAYS...IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 34.8N  50.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 36.8N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 39.3N  40.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 41.4N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 43.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 45.0N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-11-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 AM AST WED NOV 20 2013\r\n \r\nMELISSA HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TRANSITION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN EXHIBITS CURVED BANDS WITH UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC\r\nOUTFLOW...AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MELISSA HAS WEAKENED. \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ALSO CHANGED FROM\r\nSUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL STATUS AND SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n50 KNOTS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SHEAR. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT MELISSA SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nGRADUALLY ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS NOW ACCELERATING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nA MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 060 DEGREES AT 26\r\nKNOTS. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH AND THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL KEEP MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nIN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE NHC FOREAST FOLLOWS THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH\r\nIN FACT IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 35.6N  47.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 37.6N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 40.0N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 41.5N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 42.5N  24.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 42.0N  18.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-11-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n500 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING.\r\nTHERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER WHICH IS\r\nWRAPPED BY A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED BANDS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS\r\nEARLIER TODAY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS...AND ALSO\r\nINDICATES THAT THE WIND FIELD IS ASYMMETRIC WITH THE LARGEST AREA OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEGUN TO COME DOWN A LITTLE\r\nSUPPORTING THE REDUCTION OF THE WINDS. MELISSA IS MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERIES. ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED...\r\nMELISSA IS EXPECTED TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN\r\nABOUT 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nMELISA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060 DEGREES AT\r\n26 KNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH. SINCE THIS STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE\r\nMUCH...THE NHC FORECAST KEEPS MELISSA ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS OR\r\nSOONER. THE NHC FOREAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 37.2N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 39.0N  40.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 41.0N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 42.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 43.5N  23.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 42.0N  17.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-11-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 PM AST WED NOV 20 2013\r\n\r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION IS PERSISTING NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nMELISSA... THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS A BIT WEAKER THAN EARLIER\r\nTODAY.  THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT KEEPING\r\nTHE WINDS AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT\r\nSHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STRENGTH OF MELISSA FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO...DESPITE THE STORM MOVING OVER RATHER COLD WATERS. \r\nTHIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE MITIGATING FACTORS OF A DIVERGENT AND\r\nCOLD UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH LOW SHEAR.  NONETHELESS...\r\nIT IS HARD TO SEE MELISSA REMAINING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THIS TIME\r\nTOMORROW WHILE IT MOVES ACROSS SUB-18C WATERS.  EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS EXPECTED IN 36H OR SO AS MELISSA ENCOUNTERS A MORE\r\nBAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT AND A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE\r\nLATEST NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nMELISSA IS ZIPPING ALONG TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26 KT. \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE TRACK SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM MOVES SOUTH OF\r\nA CUTOFF LOW IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  GUIDANCE IS\r\nTRENDING SOUTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.\r\n \r\nGALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL AZORES LATE TOMORROW AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 38.1N  42.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 39.6N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 41.2N  31.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 42.4N  25.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 42.8N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 41.0N  16.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-11-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n500 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH MELISSA IS CURRENTLY OVER QUITE COOL 21 C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...THE STORM IS STILL PRODUCING DEEP CONVECTION AND IS\r\nHOLDING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. THE MAIN REASONS THE STORM IS\r\nABLE TO REMAIN TROPICAL OVER THE COOL WATER IS BECAUSE OF THE\r\nCOMBINED FACTORS OF A COLD AIRMASS ALOFT AND FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR.\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF FRAGMENTED CURVED BANDS MAINLY\r\nCONFINED TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT. MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS SHOW MELISSA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE LOSING ITS TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES OVER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LOWER THAN 20 C. AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nPOST-TROPICAL...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WITH DISSIPATION\r\nEXPECTED IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nMELISSA CONTINUES TO RACE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 28 KT EMBEDDED IN\r\nTHE STRONG MID-LATITUDE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A LARGE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TO\r\nTHE EAST AND THEN SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD...FOLLOWING THE LATEST\r\nTREND IN THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nGALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL AZORES LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT AFTER MELISSA LOSES TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 39.1N  38.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 40.2N  33.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 41.5N  27.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 42.2N  22.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 42.2N  19.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 40.0N  16.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-11-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 AM AST THU NOV 21 2013\r\n \r\nMELISSA REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MORNING...AS SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES SHOW A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT SOME COLD AIR\r\nHAS WRAPPED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...\r\nBUT THERE IS NO INDICATION THAT IT HAS PENETRATED THE INNER CORE.\r\nMELISSA WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 17-18\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS LATER TODAY AND THE DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE SHOULD WRAP FURTHER AROUND THE CIRCULATION...CAUSING\r\nMELISSA TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY\r\nTO CHANGE LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS EAST-NORTHEAST AT 28 KT. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD WITHIN THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD IN WEAKER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPORTION OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND LITTLE\r\nCHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nGALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE\r\nWESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 40.0N  34.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 41.1N  30.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 42.0N  24.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 42.2N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 41.2N  17.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Melissa","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-11-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n500 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013\r\n\r\nMELISSA IS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE IT MOVING OVER\r\nCOLD WATERS.  SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT CONVECTION CONTINUES\r\nNEAR THE CENTER AND IN ONE PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nCONVECTION IS ON THE WAY DOWN...WITH THE BAND ALSO BECOMING A BIT\r\nMORE RAGGED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 55 KT IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH EARLIER ASCAT DATA.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY START TO WEAKEN\r\nTOMORROW WHEN IT ENTERS A HIGHER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCONVERGENCE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A MIX OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS INTERPOLATED OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  \r\nIT IS STILL ANTICIPATED THAT MELISSA WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THIS EVENING OR EARLY TOMORROW...AND EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY\r\nOR SO WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALL OF THE MODELS\r\nSHOW MELISSA OPENING UP INTO A TROUGH WITHIN 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST MOTION IS A BIT SLOWER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...AROUND 24\r\nKT.  MELISSA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD TOMORROW AND SLOW AS IT MOVES\r\nAROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A RIDGE INTO WEAKER STEERING FLOW.  THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL LIKELY TAKE A TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAROUND THAT RIDGE BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE ECMWF SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nGALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE\r\nWESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 40.9N  32.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 41.7N  27.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 42.2N  22.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 41.8N  18.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 40.5N  16.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Melissa","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-11-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MELISSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142013\r\n1100 PM AST THU NOV 21 2013\r\n \r\nMELISSA HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 9 HOURS.  IT\r\nIS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE THAT WAS\r\nHELPING TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTION...AND IT IS NOW OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF 17C-18C.  BASED ON THIS...MELISSA HAS BECOME A\r\nGALE-FORCE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nREDUCED TO 45 KT BASED ON TWO RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES...AND THE\r\nINITIAL WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED USING THESE DATA. WHILE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS POST-TROPICAL...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 070/24. MELISSA SHOULD TURN EASTWARD AND\r\nDECELERATE ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE INTO WEAKER STEERING FLOW.  THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY\r\nTURN SOUTHEASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS IT REACHES THE EASTERN END OF THE\r\nRIDGE.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL ON FRIDAY AS IT\r\nMERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nMELISSA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nFQNT50 LFPW.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 41.5N  29.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 42.1N  25.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 42.2N  20.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 41.4N  17.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 39.9N  15.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-05-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n800 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013\r\n \r\nTHE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON HAS WASTED NO TIME\r\nGETTING STARTED.  THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WE HAVE BEEN\r\nMONITORING SOUTH OF THE MEXICAN COAST BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nOVERNIGHT...AND A NEARLY UNBROKEN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NOW WRAPS\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW T2.0 FROM TAFB AND\r\nT1.5 FROM SAB...SO THE SYSTEM IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A 30-KT\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT\r\nEXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC\r\nWATERS.  EVEN THOUGH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS LIKELY TO AMPLIFY IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF CALIFORNIA IN THE COMING DAYS...THE DEPRESSION IS SO\r\nFAR SOUTH THAT ANY EFFECTS ON STEERING SHOULD BE MINIMAL.  A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS POSSIBLE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS ONCE THE SYSTEM\r\nREACHES THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT\r\nAMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW A\r\nSTRONGER SYSTEM...SPECIFICALLY THE GFS...BAM MEDIUM...AND BAM DEEP.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A ZONE OF UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO\r\nTHE EAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET...AND IT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE\r\nWARMEST WATERS OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHIS SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES AND\r\nAPPROACHES COOLER WATERS.  SINCE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE...IT\r\nSEEMS REASONABLE THAT THE DEPRESSION SHOULD AT LEAST BE ABLE TO\r\nKEEP UP WITH A CLIMATOLOGICAL INTENSIFICATION RATE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST THEREFORE SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING AND A HIGHER PEAK\r\nINTENSITY THAN SHIPS AND LGEM SINCE THE CLIMATOLOGY-PERSISTENCE\r\nMODEL SHIFOR IS HIGHER THAN EITHER OF THOSE TWO MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z  8.2N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z  8.6N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z  9.1N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z  9.5N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 10.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 11.5N 113.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 15.5N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-05-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n200 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013\r\n \r\nASCAT DATA FROM AROUND 1612 UTC SHOWED THAT THE DEPRESSION HAD WINDS\r\nVERY NEAR THE THRESHOLD FOR A TROPICAL STORM.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED SINCE THE TIME OF THAT\r\nPASS...AND IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM.  THE INTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE ASCAT PASS ALSO HELPED TO BETTER LOCATE THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290 DEGREES AT 11\r\nKT.  ALVIN IS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM MAINLAND MEXICO OVER THE\r\nPACIFIC...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE STORM\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO AMPLIFY NEAR CALIFORNIA COAST IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...CREATING\r\nA WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT SPLIT IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE WITH THE STRONGER GFS AND GFDL SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH AND THE WEAKER ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SOMEWHAT SPLITS\r\nTHE DIFFERENCE BUT DOES FAVOR THE SCENARIO OF A STRONGER\r\nNORTHWESTWARD-TURNING STORM.\r\n\r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS ALVIN REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE THE\r\nMOST AGGRESSIVE...BUT EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS ALVIN GETTING\r\nSTRONGER THAN WE INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\nALVIN IS ABOUT TO MOVE OVER A WARM POOL OF WATER WITH SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AROUND 30.5C...AND VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE MINIMAL\r\nFOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES\r\nTO SHOW A STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND HAS BEEN BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY 3.  FASTER STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE...AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX NOW SHOWS A 1 IN 3\r\nCHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY IN 4 TO 5 DAYS MAINLY DUE TO STRONGER\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z  8.7N 105.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z  9.3N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 10.6N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 11.1N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 12.5N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 14.0N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 15.5N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-05-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 15 2013\r\n \r\nALVIN IS STRENGTHENING. SATELLITE DATA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS\r\nSHOWS A WELL-DEFINED BAND WRAPPING A LITTLE MORE THAN HALFWAY\r\nAROUND THE CIRCULATION. A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO RECENTLY\r\nFORMED NEAR THE CENTER...POSSIBLY THE BEGINNINGS OF A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 2.5\r\nAT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION OF ALVIN HAS INCREASED FURTHER. ON THIS BASIS...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11. ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAS A RESULT OF DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF\r\nTHE VORTEX AND THEIR HANDLING OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nPASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS DEPICTS A\r\nSTRONGER SYSTEM THAT FEELS THE EFFECT OF A MORE AMPLIFIED EXTENSION\r\nOF THE ABOVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALVIN.  ON THE OTHER HAND...\r\nTHE UKMET AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A WEAKER SYSTEM AND A LESS AMPLIFIED\r\nTROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...AND HENCE HAVE A MORE WESTERLY\r\nCOURSE.  ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE...IT CONTINUES TO LEAN SOMEWHAT\r\nMORE ON THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION...PLACING THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nSLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCE. GIVEN THE DISPARATE TRACK GUIDANCE...HOWEVER...THE\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN NORMAL.\r\n \r\nALVIN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SHOULD\r\nPROVIDE A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER VERY WARM\r\nWATERS...LIKELY RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT...\r\nTHE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICATES A NEARLY 1 IN 2 CHANCE OF\r\nA 30-KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE GFS KEEPS ALVIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER SLOWLY\r\nDECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNTIL DAYS 4-5...WHEN THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES ABRUPTLY. THE ECMWF/UKMET SHOW ALVIN ENCOUNTERING\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR MUCH SOONER...WHICH WOULD STIFLE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON\r\nTHE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE LATEST\r\nSHIPS...DYNAMICAL...AND FSSE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z  9.0N 105.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z  9.5N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 10.2N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 10.9N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 11.6N 111.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 13.0N 114.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 14.7N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 16.0N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-05-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013\r\n \r\nALVIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WITH SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING\r\nVERY DEEP CONVECTION RESEMBLING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES...HOWEVER...SHOW A LESS ORGANIZED SYSTEM THAN A QUICK GLANCE\r\nWOULD SUGGEST...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED A FAIR DISTANCE\r\nWEST OF THE STRONGEST BURST.  ASCAT AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST\r\nAN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...SO THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED. \r\n\r\nCURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A LOT OF UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS\r\nHEADED TOWARD THE CYCLONE...WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF THE FLOW ALREADY\r\nIMPINGING ON THE CENTER.   THE FUTURE STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nNOT AN EASY FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SHEAR IN\r\nMOST OF THE MODEL FIELDS THAN YESTERDAY.  ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME INTENSIFICATION...ONLY THE GFDL\r\nMODEL REALLY SHOWS ALVIN BECOMING ANY MORE THAN A LOW-END CATEGORY\r\nONE HURRICANE.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST 24H...THEN IS REDUCED FOR THE REST OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nGUIDANCE.  WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS DUE TO\r\nINCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS.\r\n\r\nA BEVY OF ASCAT AND OTHER MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT ALVIN IS\r\nMOVING A BIT SLOWER...290/9.  THIS GENERAL MOTION SEEMS PROBABLE\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nGENERALLY SHOWING LESS OF AN INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND ALVIN...WHICH RESULTS IN LESS OF A \r\nTURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE LONGER RANGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING THE\r\nTREND OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IS GENERALLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AFTER 24H.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z  9.1N 106.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z  9.5N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 10.2N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 11.0N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 11.6N 112.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 14.0N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 14.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-05-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 16 2013\r\n \r\nALVIN APPEARS TO HAVE DEGRADED IN STRUCTURE OVERNIGHT.  INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION HAS HAD DIFFICULTY SEPARATING FROM THE ITCZ...AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LIKELY LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON THE\r\nEARLIER ASCAT DATA...BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT ALVIN\r\nCOULD BE A BIT WEAKER.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE HISTORICALLY TWO BEST GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF...HAVE HAD SOME DISAGREEMENT ON ALVIN...EACH APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nBEEN RIGHT TO SOME DEGREE.  THE GFS HAD A BETTER HANDLE ON\r\nGENESIS...BUT THE ECMWF MAY HAVE BEEN RIGHT THAT ALVIN WOULD NOT\r\nSTRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY.  AS OPPOSED TO YESTERDAY...THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE NOW INDICATES THAT 15 TO 20 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR WILL\r\nAFFECT ALVIN DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND NEITHER OF THE\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS NOW SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH.  THE PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION APPEAR TO\r\nBE DWINDLING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE\r\nINTENSITY STEADY FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  A MORE PRONOUNCED INCREASE\r\nIN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND BY DAY\r\n3...AND ALVIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED...THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST WITH\r\nTHE ASSUMPTION THAT LOWER-LEVEL FLOW WILL HAVE A GREATER INFLUENCE\r\nON STEERING.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nGENERAL DIRECTION TODAY ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A SPEED\r\nDISCREPANCY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z  9.4N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z  9.9N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 10.7N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 11.2N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 11.6N 113.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 13.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 13.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-05-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013\r\n \r\nTHERE IS SOME QUESTION WHETHER ALVIN STILL HAS A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  THE STORM IS STILL FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND\r\nIS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DISTINGUISH FROM ANOTHER CLUSTER OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION A FEW HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  SINCE\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS WORSENED SINCE THIS MORNING...AND\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM\r\nSAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  THIS COULD BE\r\nOVERLY GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nALVIN ACCELERATED A BIT THIS MORNING BUT HAS AN AVERAGE MOTION OF\r\n285/10 KT.  SINCE THE STORM HAS BEEN UNABLE TO DETACH ITSELF FROM\r\nTHE ITCZ...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT ALVIN WILL MAKE MUCH NORTHWARD\r\nPROGRESS.  IN DIRECT CONTRAST TO YESTERDAY...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nNOW IN FULL AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING\r\nTHE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE\r\nINDIVIDUAL MODELS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nTHE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT ALVIN IS BEING AFFECTED\r\nBY 20-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR...AND IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SHEAR\r\nWILL ABATE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE\r\nSTORM DOES NOT SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY...AND THE NEW\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN LOWERED.  THIS FORECAST\r\nESSENTIALLY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS. \r\nALVIN IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...ADVISORIES COULD BE TERMINATED AT ANY TIME IF IT IS\r\nDETERMINED THAT THERE IS NO LONGER A CLOSED CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z  9.5N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z  9.8N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 10.8N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 11.5N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 12.0N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 13.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 13.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1800Z 13.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alvin","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-05-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n800 PM PDT THU MAY 16 2013\r\n \r\nALVIN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN BROKEN\r\nBANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ AND COULD BE IN THE\r\nPROCESS OF DEGENERATING INTO AN OPEN TROUGH. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 1.5 AND 2.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. DESPITE\r\nTHE RAGGED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS CONSERVATIVELY REDUCED TO 35 KT UNTIL\r\nTHERE IS MORE DEFINITIVE PROOF THAT ADDITIONAL WEAKENING HAS\r\nOCCURRED.\r\n \r\nALVIN IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BELT OF STRONG WESTERLY\r\nFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED\r\nMILES WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...UW-CIMSS\r\nSHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO DIAGNOSE 20-25 KT OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF/UKMET MODELS\r\nWHICH HAVE MORE ACCURATELY FORECAST THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN NEAR\r\nALVIN THAN HAS THE GFS. IT IS THEREFORE DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE ALVIN\r\nSTAGING A COMEBACK IN WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE AN INCREASINGLY HOSTILE\r\nENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT\r\nLOWER THAN THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE. ALVIN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN TROUGH IN THREE DAYS...IF\r\nNOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12. ALVIN SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS THEN SHOW THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ALVIN BEING CARRIED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nNEAR 120W...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT VORTICITY CENTER LIKELY\r\nSEPARATING FROM IT AND MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE IN THE\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WELL ON THIS SCENARIO...\r\nAND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS \r\nONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z  9.8N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 10.2N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 11.0N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 11.7N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 12.1N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 12.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 12.3N 121.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0000Z 12.0N 123.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Alvin","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-05-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP012013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013\r\n \r\nASCAT AND OSCAT DATA SHOW THAT ALVIN LACKS A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN\r\nITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ALSO INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITHOUT A WELL-DEFINED CENTER\r\nAND FURTHER EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.  THEREFORE...ALVIN IS NO\r\nLONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. \r\nALTHOUGH THE REMNANTS WILL BE OVER WARM WATER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW PERSISTENT WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY REGENERATION ATTEMPTS.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0900Z 10.3N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN MEANDERING NEAR THE GULF OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DEVELOPED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nHAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0 FROM TAFB AND T2.5 FROM SAB.  THEREFORE...\r\nTHIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW BEING CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ILL-DEFINED UP UNTIL NOW...BUT THE BEST\r\nGUESS IS A NORTHWARD DRIFT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT FEELS\r\nTHE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE TRACK FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nBRINGS THE CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THE\r\nSYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS AT THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS THE\r\nCYCLONE INTERACTS WITH RUGGED TERRAIN. DUE TO THE LARGE CLOUD FIELD\r\nAND EXPECTED SLOW MOTION...THE BIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 14.2N  96.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 14.9N  96.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 16.2N  95.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 17.6N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 18.6N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE MAY 28 2013\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY SINCE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY...AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE EVEN SHOWN AN\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 35 KT AT 0000 UTC...BUT THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY SINCE THAT TIME TO START\r\nWITH AN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\n \r\nA LITTLE BIT OF RELOCATION OF THE CENTER WAS REQUIRED BASED ON\r\nRECENT SATELLITE DATA...BUT IT APPEARS THAT BARBARA NOW HAS A\r\nMOTION OF 030/3 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO\r\nA BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND IT SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nACCELERATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE\r\nCENTER OF BARBARA INLAND ALONG THE SHORE OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC\r\nIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT BARBARA IS EMBEDDED IN A NARROW\r\nZONE OF NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR...AND THE CYCLONE IS OVER EXTREMELY WARM\r\nWATER ON THE ORDER OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.  GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE OF BARBARA...ITS RELATIVELY SMALL INNER CORE...AND THE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...A FAIRLY STEEP INCREASE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER OF THE STORM REACHES THE\r\nCOAST.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSTATISTICAL GUIDANCE...FOLLOWING A TREND OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN\r\nTHE VERY SHORT-TERM...AND BRINGS BARBARA TO 55 KT IN 12 HOURS. \r\nBARBARA COULD GAIN A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH JUST BEFORE REACHING THE\r\nCOAST...BUT TIME WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR.  QUICK WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE EXPECTED SLOW MOTION OF BARBARA AND ITS REMNANTS...AS\r\nWELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...THE\r\nBIGGEST HAZARD WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR\r\nFLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 14.5N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 15.3N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 16.7N  94.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.9N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n200 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE STRUCTURE OF BARBARA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN\r\nORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT.  THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...COMPRISED OF COLD-TOPPED DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nBANDING HAS INCREASED...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT BAND WRAPPING\r\nALMOST ENTIRELY AROUND THE CIRCULATION.  MORE RECENTLY...A PARTIAL\r\nEYEWALL HAS BEEN NOTED IN RADAR IMAGERY...WITH THE EYEWALL BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS WERE 3.0 FROM TAFB\r\nAND 3.5 FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS THEREFORE BEEN\r\nRAISED TO 50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/04. BARBARA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER...THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD DRAW THE CYCLONE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nTODAY. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nCOAST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. AFTER\r\nCROSSING THE COAST...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE NEAR OR WEST\r\nOF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH AN OUTSIDE\r\nCHANCE OF THE REMNANTS ENTERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFS AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nSHEAR ANALYSES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL SHOW ONLY LIGHT SHEAR\r\nOVER BARBARA AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS AROUND 30C. \r\nTHESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN\r\nPLACE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  IN ADDITION...AN EARLIER SSMI/S PASS\r\nSHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY A HARBINGER\r\nOF A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE ABOUT TO OCCUR. THE LACK OF TIME\r\nOVER WATER IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS INCREASED FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE AND WELL AS THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS AIDS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nBARBARA COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  FOR THIS\r\nREASON...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR\r\nA PORTION OF THE COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN IN AND NEAR THE LANDFALL AREA...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...WHICH COULD RESULT IN\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 14.8N  95.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 15.7N  95.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 17.0N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 18.0N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-05-29 12:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n500 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013\r\n \r\nRECENT RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO INDICATE THAT BARBARA HAS\r\nBEEN TRYING TO FORM AN EYE...AND HAS APPARENTLY INTENSIFIED.  BASED\r\nUPON THE CURRENT TRENDS...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS WARRANTED TO\r\nINCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST OF BARBARA TO INDICATE HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  BASED ON RECENT CENTER FIXES...THERE\r\nHAS BEEN A SLIGHT EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST\r\nTRACK.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE 1200 UTC\r\nINTERMEDIATE ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1200Z 15.2N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 15.7N  94.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 17.0N  94.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 18.0N  94.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n800 AM PDT WED MAY 29 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION EPISODE EARLIER THIS\r\nMORNING...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A\r\nBANDING-TYPE EYE AS OPPOSED TO A CLOSED EYEWALL.  BASED ON A\r\nCOMPARISON OF VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TO THE PUERTO ANGEL MEXICAN\r\nRADAR IMAGES...THE CENTER IS TILTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT. \r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nDIAGNOSED BY THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 55 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\nTHE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...BUT\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO FAVOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE\r\nCENTER CROSSES THE COASTLINE. ALTHOUGH NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE\r\nWIND SPEED FORECAST...WE STILL ANTICIPATE THAT BARBARA WILL BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BE RAPID LATER TODAY\r\nAND TONIGHT AS THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN\r\nOF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO REACH\r\nTHE EXTREME SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 36 HOURS...THE CURRENT\r\nTHINKING IS THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL HAVE BEEN SO SEVERELY\r\nDISRUPTED BY THAT TIME THAT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THIS IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH ALSO SHOW STRONG VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/11. THE ACCELERATION APPEARS TO BE\r\nDUE TO A BELT OF MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES THAT EXTENDS FROM THE\r\nLOW LATITUDES OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO EXTREME EASTERN MEXICO\r\nAND CENTRAL AMERICA. WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE ISTHMUS OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER A WEAKER STEERING CURRENT AS IT\r\nMOVES AWAY FROM THE BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLIES AND APPROACHES A BROAD\r\nRIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A DECREASING\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 15.7N  94.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 16.9N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 17.9N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 18.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Barbara","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n200 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013\r\n \r\nBARBARA RECENTLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE MEXICAN STATE OF CHIAPAS AS A\r\nCATEGORY 1 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. \r\nTHIS IS THE EASTERNMOST LANDFALL LOCATION FOR AN EASTERN NORTH\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE SINCE RELIABLE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1966.  IT IS ALSO\r\nTHE SECOND-EARLIEST HURRICANE LANDFALL IN THE RELIABLE RECORD.\r\n\r\nBARBARA SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS IT CROSSES THE ISTHMUS OF\r\nTEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO A REGION OF\r\nWEAKER STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nNOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND\r\nBARBARA WILL PROBABLY BE REDUCED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 12\r\nHOURS OR SO...AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT ENTERS THE GULF\r\nOF MEXICO.  THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE SO DISRUPTED\r\nBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THAT REGENERATION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO IS UNLIKELY.  IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nGLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS\r\nLIKELY TO INCREASE IN THE GULF...WHICH WOULD ALSO DISCOURAGE\r\nREDEVELOPMENT.  ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT EXPECTED...SHOULD BARBARA\r\nMAINTAIN TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF\r\nMEXICO...IT WOULD RETAIN ITS NAME.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nASSOCIATED WITH BARBARA OR ITS REMNANTS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WOULD\r\nEXACERBATE AN ALREADY DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT OVER THE REGION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 16.2N  94.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 17.3N  93.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 18.8N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 19.3N  94.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Barbara","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 29 2013\r\n \r\nBARBARA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY WEAKEN WHILE MOVING FURTHER INLAND OVER\r\nTHE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.  CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nCONSIDERABLY...AND WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY RECENT REPORTS OF\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 45 KT BASED ON A NORMAL INLAND DECAY RATE.  THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS LIKELY BEING DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND BARBARA IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS BARBARA EMERGING OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF\r\nOF MEXICO AS A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...NONE OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW A CLOSED SURFACE WIND CIRCULATION AT\r\nTHAT POINT...AND IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT BARBARA WILL DISSIPATE\r\nBEFORE REACHING WATER.  IN ANY CASE...ONCE THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA\r\nREACH THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEY WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF\r\nREGENERATION.\r\n \r\nOF MORE IMMINENT CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT IS FALLING OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  EVEN THOUGH BARBARA IS\r\nWEAKENING...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS IS\r\nLIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL\r\nAMERICA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS.  THIS WILL CONTINUE A HEIGHTENED\r\nRISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE REGION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 17.1N  93.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 18.1N  93.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 18.8N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barbara","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013\r\n \r\nBARBARA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER MOVES NORTHWARD OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. BASED ON THE TIME SPENT OVER LAND AND THE\r\nLACK OF ANY REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FOR SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISSIPATING\r\nSOON...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FOLLOW THAT\r\nREASONING. A REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST AT 12 HOURS OVER THE EXTREME\r\nSOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH DISSIPATION SHOWN AT 24 HOURS.\r\nHOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION NORTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. IF ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION ARE MAINTAINED...BARBARA\r\nCOULD EMERGE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER\r\nTHIS MORNING. PLEASE NOTE THAT IF THIS OCCURS...THE NEXT ADVISORY\r\nWOULD BE ISSUED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE PRODUCTS AND\r\nHEADERS.\r\n\r\nDESPITE THE WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO\r\nBE HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. DISTURBED\r\nWEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY\r\nTO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA\r\nFOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS\r\nFLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 17.8N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 18.7N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Barbara","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013\r\n \r\nFINDING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN A REAL\r\nCHALLENGE THIS MORNING.  THE CENTER OF ROTATION THAT IS EVIDENT ON\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH SURFACE WIND\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM STANDARD AND AUTOMATED MEXICAN WEATHER STATIONS. \r\nIN FACT...THERE IS SOME DOUBT THAT A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER\r\nEVEN EXISTS.  HOWEVER...WE THINK THE MOST PRUDENT ACTION AT THIS\r\nTIME IS TO MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL ADDITIONAL\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA BECOME AVAILABLE.  THE CURRENT\r\nADVISORY POSITION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND\r\nDATA.    \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/3.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR INTO THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO.  SINCE THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BECOME VERY DISRUPTED\r\nAND IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR FROM LAND...THE FORECAST SHOWS THE\r\nSYSTEM DISSIPATING IN A DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE SOON...HEAVY RAINS REMAIN A\r\nSERIOUS CONCERN.   DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS\r\nOF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND\r\nPORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND A\r\nHEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES WILL CONTINUE\r\nOVER THIS REGION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 18.5N  95.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 18.7N  95.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 18.8N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Barbara","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-05-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP022013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF BARBARA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022013\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 30 2013\r\n\r\nTHREE SURFACE OBSERVING SITES NEAR COATZACOALCOS MEXICO HAVE BEEN\r\nPERSISTENTLY REPORTING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...YET\r\nHIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING A\r\nWEAK CIRCULATION CENTERED TO THE EAST OF THESE SITES.  APPARENTLY\r\nTHE LATTER CIRCULATION IS EITHER NOT AT THE SURFACE OR IS EXTREMELY\r\nWEAK AND ILL DEFINED.  SINCE BARBARA DOES NOT HAVE A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCENTER OF SURFACE CIRCULATION AND LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED.  OUR OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT IS\r\nTHAT BARBARA DID NOT MAKE IT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED...DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE REMNANTS OF BARBARA IS LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER SOUTHEASTERN\r\nMEXICO AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...AND A HEIGHTENED RISK OF DANGEROUS FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES\r\nWILL CONTINUE OVER THIS REGION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 18.5N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-06-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LARGE AREA OF LOW\r\nPRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS FINALLY ACQUIRED ENOUGH OF A CENTER TO\r\nBE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A SMALL\r\nAREA OF CENTRAL CONVECTION...WITH LARGE BANDING FEATURES TO THE\r\nNORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30\r\nKT...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES AND\r\nEARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHER THAN THE LARGE SIZE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENTS TO THIS DEPRESSION\r\nSTRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER\r\nWARM WATER WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS. WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN\r\nTHE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN MOVING MUCH DURING THE PAST 12-24 HR\r\nWHILE IT HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL EXIT THE ITCZ BY TOMORROW AND\r\nBE STEERED BY A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. THUS...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST ON\r\nMONDAY AND CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR 4-5\r\nDAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME\r\nA SHALLOWER CYCLONE AND TAKE A WESTWARD TURN AS IT BECOMES STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FOR A FIRST ADVISORY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nRATHER TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT TOO\r\nDISSIMILAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 11.8N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 12.2N 104.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 13.4N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 15.2N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 16.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 19.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 20.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-06-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SOME SMALL CHANGES WITH THE DEPRESSION DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT WHILE\r\nSOME OF THE OUTER BANDING HAS DIMINISHED...THE EARLIER CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MORPHING INTO A CURVED BAND JUST SOUTH OF\r\nTHE CENTER.  ASCAT DATA SUGGESTS THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 25-30 KT...\r\nSO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT.  ALMOST ALL OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE HAS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT MOVES OVER VERY WARM WATER WITH\r\nLIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR CONDITIONS.  THE LARGEST NEGATIVE FACTOR IS\r\nPROBABLY THE LARGE SIZE OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD KEEP IT\r\nFROM RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...NEAR THE SHIPS MODEL...AND A BIT HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER MUCH COLDER\r\nWATER IN 3-4 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE IT TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nBY ABOUT 120 H.\r\n \r\nTHE ASCAT DATA HELPED LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...JUST A\r\nBIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE DEPRESSION ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY\r\nTOMORROW DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nLIKELY TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE\r\nRIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nHAS A RATHER NARROW SPREAD...AND OTHER THAN A SLIGHT EASTWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 H...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 12.0N 103.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 12.7N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 14.3N 105.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 15.7N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 16.6N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 18.1N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 20.0N 120.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 20.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-06-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 23 2013\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO APPRECIABLE INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN OF THE CYCLONE...WITH A LACK OF WELL-DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nKEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK DATA T-NUMBER\r\nFROM TAFB.  ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS CURRENTLY\r\nFAVOR STRENGTHENING...THE BROAD NATURE OF THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY\r\nHINDERING THE PACE OF DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE\r\nENVIRONMENT...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY A\r\nBLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS.  INTERESTINGLY...THE DSHIPS FORECAST CALLS FOR A\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER INTENSITY IN 2-3 DAYS THAN DOES LGEM.  BY 72\r\nHOURS...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE\r\nWEAKENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES HAVE SIGNIFICANT SCATTER BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 315/6.  OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...A PRONOUNCED \r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 1-2 DAYS.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS. \r\nMOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 12.6N 104.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 13.5N 105.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 15.1N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 16.2N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 17.0N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 20.5N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-06-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND SEVERAL SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM COSME. IN FACT...ASCAT-B AND ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASSES AT\r\n0404Z AND 0450Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED SEVERAL 34- TO 37-KT\r\nWIND VECTORS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO\r\nREVEALED THAT COSME HAD MOVED MORE WESTWARD SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AND THAT THE CENTER AS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A\r\nSMALL CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/09 KT. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT AS INDICATED IN UW-CIMMS SHEAR ANALYSES\r\nIS THE LIKELY REASON FOR THE RECENT WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...\r\nTHIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION AND COSME IS FORECAST TO\r\nBEGIN TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AS THE\r\nCYCLONE GRADUALLY MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF COSME\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY 48\r\nHOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EXPECTED WEAKENING\r\nAND VERTICALLY SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD WITHIN\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. SINCE COSME IS ALREADY AT\r\nLEAST 30 NMI TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...THE NEW\r\nADVISORY TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH...\r\nAND BASICALLY LIES ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHERN EDGE OF TIGHTLY\r\nPACKED MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN UNDERCUTTING THE\r\nOTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS BEEN\r\nHINDERING THE  DEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...AS COSME CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL ENTER A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL\r\nALLOW FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR UNTIL THE SYSTEM\r\nREACHES MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 72 HOURS.  DESPITE VERY FAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...THE\r\nLARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF AT LEAST 90 NMI SHOULD KEEP\r\nINTENSIFICATION SLOWER THAN THE AVERAGE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER\r\nDAY. BY 72 HOURS...COSME WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nRAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND SHIFOR INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 12.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 13.9N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 15.2N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 16.2N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 18.5N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 19.7N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 20.0N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-06-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013\r\n \r\nA LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF COSME BEGAN JUST\r\nAFTER 0600 UTC AND HAS PERSISTED SINCE THAT TIME.  SOME NORTHERLY\r\nTO NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR STILL APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE\r\nCYCLONE...YET TAFB AND SAB BOTH PROVIDED INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45\r\nKT.  THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE IS EVEN HIGHER AT 50 KT.\r\nEITHER WAY...COSME IS STRENGTHENING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nBEING SET AT 45 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS JUST RECENTLY BECOME EASIER TO LOCATE BASED ON A 1241\r\nUTC SSMIS OVERPASS AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE BLOW-UP\r\nOF CONVECTION APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO JUMP\r\nTO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...BUT SMOOTHING THE TRACK YIELDS A 12-HOUR\r\nMOTION OF 315/11 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO.  ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WILL\r\nTEND TO STEER COSME WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS.  THERE IS VERY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG THE TRACK\r\nMODELS...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT\r\nAROUND COSME SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR THE CYCLONE TO\r\nCONTINUE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS PERIOD\r\nALSO HAPPENS TO COINCIDE WITH THE TIME THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER\r\nWATER WARMER THAN 26C.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN\r\nINCREASED DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS MAINLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nRECENT STRENGTHENING...AND THEY ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST\r\nSHOWN BY THE LGEM.  WEAKENING SHOULD STILL BEGIN BY 72 HOURS...WITH\r\nTHE CYCLONE LIKELY DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 14.1N 105.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 15.0N 107.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 16.0N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 16.7N 112.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 17.5N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 19.0N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 20.0N 125.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-06-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF COSME IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LARGE\r\nAREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME\r\nCONVECTIVE BANDING NOW DEVELOPING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND THERE IS NOW A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE TO THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS NEAR THE CENTER ITSELF. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE\r\nNEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nTO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A MORE CONFIDENT 310/12...AS THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO TRACK FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS IN VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT ASIDE FROM THAT\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\nCOSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEXT 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nBUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. LATE IN THE PERIOD...AS THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES...COSME\r\nIS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WHILE IT WEAKENS TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nAND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 15.0N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 16.0N 108.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 17.0N 111.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 17.7N 113.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 19.5N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 20.5N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 20.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-06-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 24 2013\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE INNER-CORE BANDING STRUCTURE OF\r\nCOSME HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND\r\nA BANDING FEATURE NOW WRAPS ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CENTER. \r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND OBJECTIVE\r\nESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS SUPPORT INCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 55 KT. \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR \r\nCONTINUED INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MUCH COLDER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES. COSME IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY\r\n96 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nDSHP AND LGEM MODELS...BUT LEANS CLOSER TO THE WEAKER LGEM FORECAST\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nNO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST.  COSME\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/12...ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE THE RIDGE BUILDS DURING\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS...COSME SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND\r\nREMAIN ON THAT HEADING FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF COSME ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD...FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.9N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 16.7N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 17.4N 112.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 18.7N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 20.0N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z 20.5N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-06-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE INTERNAL\r\nAND OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD STRUCTURES HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE\r\nLEVELED OFF AT ABOUT T3.6/57 KT FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS. THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS RECENTLY BECOME ELONGATED NORTH-TO-SOUTH AND THE CENTER\r\nIS LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS. A\r\nBLEND OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...RECENT ADT VALUES...\r\nAND CIRA AND CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 47 KT AND 49 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...YIELDS AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 55 KT...WHICH WAS\r\nUSED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS\r\nSYMMETRICAL AND CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nWERE USED TO DETERMINE THE LOCATION OF COSME...WHICH YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 290/14 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. COSME IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG AND WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...A RAPIDLY WEAKENING COSME\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE...AND FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA.\r\n\r\nUW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT COSME\r\nHAS AGAIN MOVED INTO A MODERATELY UNFAVORABLE MID-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...WHICH MAY BE THE CAUSE OF THE RECENT DISHEVELED\r\nLOOKING INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO MORE FAVORABLE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW\r\nREGIMES LATER TODAY...ALLOWING COSME TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES SUB-25C SSTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. STEADY TO\r\nRAPID WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST TO BEGIN AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nOVER MUCH COOLER WATERS BY 48 HOURS...AND COSME IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 72 AND 96 HOURS. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE DECAY-SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL\r\nFLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL IN TURN AFFECT MUCH OF\r\nTHE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS THE LARGE SWELLS PROPAGATE NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 16.5N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 17.2N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 17.9N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 18.5N 116.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 19.3N 118.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 20.4N 124.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 20.9N 129.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0600Z 20.9N 134.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cosme","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-06-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT COSME HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND PATTERN AND OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES OF AN EYE. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 65 KT.\r\nIN ADDITION...A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS SHOWED AN ALMOST-CLOSED\r\nEYEWALL WITH AN ACCOMPANYING INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KT.  BASED ON\r\nALL OF THE ABOVE...COSME IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nCOSME HAS JOGGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WITH\r\nA 12-HOUR MOTION OF 305/16.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  COSME IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTWARD-EXPANDING MID-LEVEL\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  AFTER THAT TIME...COSME SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT WEAKENS.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS PARALLEL TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK LIES NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WHICH IS MORE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED THAN NORMAL.\r\n\r\nCOSME IS IN A LIGHT/MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS IT REACHING 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS SHOWS SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12 HOURS...FOLLWED BY STEADY\r\nWEAKENING OVER DECREASING SSTS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL STORM IN 24-36 HOURS...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT\r\n72 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DECAY INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96\r\nHOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDED BY\r\nTHE TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH SOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL\r\nFLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE PACIFIC\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 17.7N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 18.2N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 18.9N 114.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 19.6N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 20.4N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 21.5N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z 21.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cosme","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-06-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT AN EYE HAS\r\nFORMED...THOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY ONLY PERIODICALLY SHOWS THIS\r\nFEATURE.  CORRESPONDINGLY...THE TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE VALUES HAVE\r\nINCREASED AND SUGGEST A RANGE OF 65 TO 77 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 70 KT...SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nOVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...COSME JOGGED BACK TO THE LEFT SOME AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ANALYZED TO BE 295/15.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS\r\nPRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  AS COSME GRADUALLY SPINS DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS...THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY AT A SOMEWHAT\r\nSLOWER SPEED AS IT IS ADVECTED ALONG BY THE MID TO LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION AT THE\r\n12 AND 24 HOUR POINTS AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK THEREAFTER.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GLOBAL AND\r\nREGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS.\r\n\r\nWHILE WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OCCURRING NOW AND FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...\r\nCOSME INSTEAD WILL LIKELY BE PEAKING SHORTLY IN INTENSITY DUE TO\r\nITS TRAVERSING RAPIDLY COOLING WATERS.  ALONG THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK...COSME SHOULD PASS THE 26C ISOTHERM TONIGHT AND REACH\r\nSUB-22C SSTS BY THURSDAY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE CYCLONE\r\nPEAKING SHORTLY FOLLOWED BY RATHER QUICK WEAKENING DUE TO RATHER\r\nHOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS.  THE PREDICTION ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO\r\nBECOME A REMANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...BUT THIS COULD EVEN OCCUR\r\nSOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISSIPATES EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nCLOSEST TO THE LOGISTIC GROWTH EQUATION MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF THE CYCLONE PROVIDED BY TAFB IS THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH\r\nSOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH\r\nWILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AND\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 17.9N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 18.5N 114.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 19.3N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 20.3N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 20.9N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 21.8N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z 22.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cosme","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013\r\n \r\nA BANDING EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY PRESENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES\r\nTHAT COSME NEARLY HAD A CLOSED EYEWALL AROUND 0000 UTC.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT ARE IN VERY GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 75 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...THE WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE CLOSING.\r\nCOSME IS LOCATED OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND IS MOVING INTO A HOSTILE OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT.\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT...AND COSME IS\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCOSME CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED AT 290/12.  WHILE THIS RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER\r\nCOSME GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS...THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE MAY LIFT SLIGHTLY\r\nNORTHWARD...ALLOWING COSME TO GAIN A LITTLE LATITUDE.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES\r\nINCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS VERY NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH\r\nSOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 17.9N 113.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 19.5N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 20.9N 123.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 21.7N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ZELINSKY/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cosme","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013\r\n \r\nCOSME LIKELY PEAKED WITH AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT AT 0000 AND 0600 UTC\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF AN 18 NMI DIAMETER EYE IN WINDSAT...SSMIS...AND AMSU-B\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0100 UTC AND 0430 UTC. OVER THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS SINCE THE 0600 UTC SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE OF T4.5/77 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE CONVECTION ON\r\nTHE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ERODED SIGNIFICANTLY AS COSME\r\nHAS BEGUN ITS TREK OVER COLDER WATERS. AS A RESULT...THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 70 KT.\r\n\r\nAFTER THE MULTIPLE JOGS AND WOBBLES IN THE TRACK OVER THE PAST TWO\r\nDAYS...HURRICANE COSME APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED INTO A NICE SMOOTH\r\nMOTION OF 290/12 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MASSIVE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO ITS NORTH...\r\nAND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER THAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE LATEST NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED AND IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN\r\nEXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n\r\nCOSME IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE 26C SST ISOTHERM AND WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATER...REACHING SUB-22C SSTS BY 36\r\nHOURS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND THE ROBUST\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT FOR AT\r\nLEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FACTORS THAT COULD POSSIBLY HELP COSME\r\nRETAIN HURRICANE STATUS FOR ANOTHER 6-12 HOURS. BY 18-24 HOURS...\r\nHOWEVER...THE MUCH COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING COLD UPWELLING\r\nBENEATH THE CYCLONE SHOULD INDUCE RAPID WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE...\r\nWITH DEGENERATION INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...\r\nIF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL...WHICH\r\nINDICATES DISSIPATION OF THE CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH\r\nSOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 18.4N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 19.9N 118.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 20.6N 121.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 21.1N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 21.7N 129.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 21.7N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z 21.7N 138.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 26 2013\r\n \r\nCOSME HAS BEGUN ITS WEAKENING PHASE...AS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATE THAT THE EYE IS NO LONGER CLOSED. BASED UPON THE INFRARED\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE TAFB AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE DROPPED TO 3.0/4.0...WHILE THE CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nINDICATES T3.7 OR 55-60 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 60\r\nKT...JUST BELOW HURRICANE FORCE. A 0937Z AMSU SATELLITE PASS\r\nPROVIDED GUIDANCE ON THE TROPICAL STORM WIND RADII...WHICH HAS BEEN\r\nEXPANDED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY BASED UPON THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSIS.\r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED AMSU PASS ALONG WITH AN 1106Z SSMI PASS ALLOW FOR\r\nA FAIRLY CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION OF COSME. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT...DUE TO THE STEERING\r\nINFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  COSME SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS BEFORE BENDING\r\nWESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND\r\nHAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD...IN PART DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nINITIAL POSITION.  THE TRACK PREDICTION IS LIKEWISE SLIGHTLY NORTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nWHILE COSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nWITHIN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY DECAY DUE\r\nTO TRAVERSING COLD WATER.  EVEN THOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nCURRENTLY QUITE VIGOROUS...WHEN COSME REACHES 22C SSTS TOMORROW THE\r\nCONVECTION IS LIKELY TO COLLAPSE...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS A BIT BELOW THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH\r\nSOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 19.1N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 19.9N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 20.8N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 21.8N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 22.3N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 22.5N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 22.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-06-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013\r\n\r\nCOSME CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  A COMBINATION OF CONVENTIONAL AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL HAS\r\nDISSIPATED...AND THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED\r\nTO 50 KT BASED ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INTENSITY AND THE DECAY OF\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THAT TIME.  THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH ARE\r\nCURRENTLY CONSTRAINED BY THE DECAY RULES OF THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11.  A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST OF COSME SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nEXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME.  SOME DECELERATION MAY OCCUR AROUND\r\n96-120 HOURS AS THE REMNANTS OF COSME APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nCOSME SHOULD CONTINUE TO QUICKLY WEAKEN OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF 21C-24C.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DECAY TO A\r\nCONVECTIONLESS REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS...AND THIS COULD OCCUR\r\nEARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE THROUGH\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE EXTENSIVE 12-FT SEAS RADII ARE THE RESULT OF LONG-FETCH\r\nSOUTHERLY CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW GENERATING LARGE SWELLS...WHICH\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 19.3N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 19.9N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 20.8N 121.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 21.6N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 21.9N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 22.0N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z 22.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-06-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 26 2013\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS BEEN DECREASING IN\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM WAS BEGINNING TO BECOME DECOUPLED IN THE\r\nVERTICAL.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB.  COSME WILL SOON BE\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-22C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...SO CONTINUED STEADY\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE DSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...295/12.  COSME IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING FLOW ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE\r\nNORTH OF COSME...OR ITS REMNANTS...FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 24\r\nTO 48 HOURS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE RIDGE\r\nIS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A\r\nDECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST REMAINS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 19.6N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 20.4N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 21.3N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 21.7N 125.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 22.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 22.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 22.0N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z 22.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013\r\n \r\nALL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH COSME HAS DISAPPEARED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW AND\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTERS OF COSME HAVE DECOUPLED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 40 KT...NEAR AN AVERAGE OF A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES\r\nFROM 0445 AND 0530 UTC.  WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24H...COSME IS PROBABLY\r\nFINISHED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION UNLIKELY\r\nTO REDEVELOP.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY LATE TODAY ALONG WITH A\r\nSLOW WEAKENING OF THE WINDS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A BIT FASTER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...290/14.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES ON TRACK AS IT REMAINS\r\nSOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE REMNANTS OF COSME\r\nWILL PROBABLY TURN WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...AND SLOW SOMEWHAT IN A COUPLE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC TRACK CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 20.1N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 20.7N 121.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 21.4N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 21.8N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 21.8N 130.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 21.8N 134.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cosme","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 27 2013\r\n\r\nCOSME HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT MOVES OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF\r\n22-23C.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 35 KT BASED ON\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THIS COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS.  BARRING AN UNEXPECTED RETURN OF THE CONVECTION...THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY DECAYS TO A TROUGH IN ABOUT\r\n120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/14.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW\r\nTHEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 20.4N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 20.9N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 21.4N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.5N 128.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 21.5N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 21.5N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 22.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Cosme","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP032013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032013\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013\r\n\r\nCOSME CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH\r\nISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  PASSIVE WIND DATA FROM\r\nA SERIES OF SSM/IS OVERPASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE\r\nDROPPED BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE LACK OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT COSME HAS DEGENERATED TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/15.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW\r\nTHEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nAND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 20.9N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-06-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 29 2013\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS NOW ACQUIRED\r\nENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN FEATURES A SMALL AREA OF CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH SOME RAGGED CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT ELONGATED...BUT IT APPEARS TO BE\r\nSITUATED NEAR OR JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/09...GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES. THE SYNOPTIC\r\nSITUATION FEATURES A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST. THESE FEATURES\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\nTHEN THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN\r\nTHE CYCLONE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS...FOLLLOWED BY \r\nA GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE GFS MODEL TRACK THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD. WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE\r\nEVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN...SEVERAL OF THEM DO NOT\r\nINITIALIZE THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL. GIVEN THIS...CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nDETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HOURS OR SO...AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM\r\nWATERS AND IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE APPARENTLY\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE HIGH END OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72\r\nHOURS...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND HWRF MODELS. BY DAY\r\n4...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN SLOW WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nAFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH AND WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 13.7N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 14.9N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 16.1N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 17.1N 104.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 17.9N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 19.2N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-06-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE\r\nMORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. ON THIS\r\nBASIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 35 KNOTS.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL IS CURRENTLY DIAGNOSING SMALL SHEAR OVER\r\nDALILA...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A SOUTHERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE\r\nCYCLONE CAUSING SLIGHT SHEAR. AS THE UPPER-TROUGH PRESENTLY LOCATED\r\nWEST OF DALILA WEAKENS...THE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST. SHIPS MODEL IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC WITH DALILA...AND\r\nONLY SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. HWRF AND FL STATE SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nMODELS FORECAST A STRONGER CYCLONE.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/9 KNOTS.\r\nHOWEVER...DALILA WILL SOON ENCOUNTER A LARGE DEVELOPING HIGH\r\nPRESSURE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST AND THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.\r\nIN FACT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS RUN...AND MOST OF THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE\r\nTO THE LEFT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS MODEL TREND...BUT\r\nSINCE IT IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A\r\nSLIGHT SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY\r\nLATER TODAY.       \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 14.6N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 15.9N 103.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 16.8N 104.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 17.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 19.3N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 19.3N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.   THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB.  DALILA IS EXPERIENCING SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUT\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nABOVE THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION IS NOW NORTH-NORTHWEST\r\nOR NEAR 340/8.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A\r\nSTRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ONLY A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND IS NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN SIZE AND TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING AND WATCH HAVE BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 15.5N 103.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 16.4N 103.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 17.3N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 18.0N 105.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 18.6N 106.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH SITUATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS CONDUCIVE TO\r\nINTENSIFICATION...DALILA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  IN FACT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE\r\nEARLIER TODAY...AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT IMPRESSIVE.  A RECENT\r\nASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS OF MARGINAL TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH...SO THE CURRENT WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35\r\nKT.  SINCE CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS\r\nAPPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL\r\nHURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.\r\n\r\nEVEN WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES...THE CENTER HAS BEEN VERY\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY. THANKS TO THE TIMELY\r\nASCAT OVERPASS...A GOOD CENTER FIX WAS OBTAINED...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NEAR 330/8. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nHIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD...WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...AND\r\nEVENTUALLY WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE\r\nEARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND SLOWER IN THE LATTER PART.\r\nTHIS IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATEST GFS\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 16.2N 103.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 17.0N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 18.8N 106.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 19.0N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 19.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 19.0N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 30 2013\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF DALILA HAS IMPROVED. IN\r\nFACT...37 GHZ AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM A 30/1857Z TRMM OVERPASS\r\nREVEALED THAT A 70 PERCENT CLOSED LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYEWALL HAD\r\nDEVELOPED. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED...ESPECIALLY IN\r\nTHE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF 45 KT...30 KT...AND 47 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND UW-CIMSS ADT...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS BEEN\r\nWOBBLING ABOUT A MEAN MOTION OF 315/09 KT. THE MASSIVE HEAT WAVE\r\nRIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN\r\nAND CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ALSO WESTWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS\r\nSTAGNANT STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP DALILA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE\r\nMONDAY AND TO THE WEST BY TUESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF AND HWRF MODELS TAKING DALILA\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE GFS\r\nAND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS...WHICH HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STABLE THE\r\nPAST FEW CYCLES...KEEP DALILA MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nDIRECTION LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A ROBUST TROPICAL STORM OR\r\nHURRICANE...AND THAT TRACK SCENARIO WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AT ONLY 3 KT...THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS FROM A\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND\r\nSOME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS KEPT MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...RECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY INDICATE THAT MORE INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO\r\nDEVELOP AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...WHICH\r\nCOULD BE A SIGNAL THAT AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION SHOULD\r\nOCCUR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE STRONGER SHEAR KICKS IN.\r\nDALILA IS A COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THAT IT IS\r\nSUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID CHANGES CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND\r\nDOWN. SO FOR NOW...A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST IS THE BEST COURSE OF\r\nACTION UNTIL A SOLID INTENSIFICATION SIGNAL HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW SHOWS DALILA REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE \r\nNHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 16.8N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 18.3N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 18.7N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 18.9N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 19.0N 109.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW FEW HOURS AS INDICATED BY IR IMAGERY. THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nLIMITED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THERE ARE NO WELL DEFINED\r\nBANDING FEATURES. A BLEND OF T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB\r\nSUPPORTS KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40 KNOTS. DALILA STILL\r\nHAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nBEFORE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\nNEITHER SHIPS NOR LGEM MODELS ARE VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT\r\nDALILA...AND IN FACT...THE LATEST HWRF ONLY INCREASES THE WIND\r\nSLIGHTLY. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS\r\nFOR DALILA TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS...BUT THIS IS BECOMING LESS\r\nLIKELY TO OCCUR.  \r\n\r\nDALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. A\r\nSTRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SOON FORCE DALILA TO TAKE A\r\nMORE WESTERLY TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE BECOMES HIGHLY DIVERGENT SINCE\r\nSOME MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST OF DALILA...AND\r\nSUGGEST THAT DALILA WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NEW DISTURBANCE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES...BEYOND 3 DAYS...THAT DALILA INSTEAD\r\nWILL CONTINUE SLOWLY WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\n\r\nIF THE TREND TOWARD THE WEST CONTINUES AND DALILA DOES NOT INTENSIFY\r\nMUCH MORE...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MEXICO WILL LIKELY NO\r\nLONGER BE REQUIRED.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 17.2N 105.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 18.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 18.8N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 18.9N 108.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 19.0N 109.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 19.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 19.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 01 2013\r\n \r\nA 0949 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED THAT THE INNER CORE OF DALILA HAS BECOME\r\nA LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A RAINBAND NOW WRAPS MOST OF THE\r\nWAY AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES HAVE INCREASED...AND SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 50 KT.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED WITHIN A\r\nSYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY SLIGHT\r\nINTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE\r\nUPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND\r\nDALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT\r\nDALILA WILL ENCOUNTER A LAYER OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN STEADILY.  \r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND IR-BASED CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT DALILA CONTINUES\r\nTO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 310/8.  A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY AFTER TWO DAYS...EXEMPLIFIED BY THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF FORECASTS.  THE GFS IS FORECASTING A DEEPER VORTEX WHICH\r\nMOVES FARTHER NORTH...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A SHALLOW VORTEX\r\nMOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IN LINE\r\nWITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST...SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND CALLS\r\nFOR A STEADY WESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 17.8N 105.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 18.2N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 18.6N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 18.8N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 18.9N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 19.0N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 19.0N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013\r\n \r\nTHE INNER CORE OF DALILA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...\r\nAND UW-CIMSS HAVE CONVERGED TO A CONSENSUS T-NUMBER OF 3.5...SO THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 55 KT. ALTHOUGH DALILA IS\r\nLOCATED IN A SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT CONSISTING OF VERY WARM SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...A\r\nPRONOUNCED DRY SLOT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF\r\nTHE STORM WHICH SUGGESTS THAT DRY AIR MAY BE ENTRAINING INTO THE\r\nCIRCULATION. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS DALILA TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE SPREAD\r\nAMONG THE MODELS IS HIGH...ESPECIALLY REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE DRY\r\nAIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE\r\nTO WEAKEN IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND NOW LIES\r\nVERY NEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DALILA HAS BEEN OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nFEATURE. MICROWAVE-BASED CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBEGUN TO TURN AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS 295/6. WHILE THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED...THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY HIGH. THE\r\nECMWF FORECASTS A NEARLY DUE SOUTH TRACK...WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS\r\nA GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 120 HOURS. THESE DISCREPANCIES\r\nAPPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nVORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH\r\nHAS A STRONGER VORTEX...MORE IN LINE WITH THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE\r\nDEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO VERY HIGH.\r\n \r\nSINCE DALILA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE AWAY FROM MEXICO...THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THAT COUNTRY HAVE BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED. HOWEVER...THE OUTER RAINBANDS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO\r\nTHROUGH TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 17.9N 106.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 18.2N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 18.4N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 18.5N 109.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 18.5N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 18.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 01 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BANDING PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA HAS GRADUALLY\r\nMORPHED INTO A SMALL CDO FEATURE OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...WITH CLOUD\r\nTOPS OF -80C AND COLDER ALMOST COMPLETELY ENCIRCLING THE CENTER. A\r\n01/1801 UTC TRMM OVERPASS THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nALSO REVEALED A CLOSED 10-15 NMI DIAMETER MID-LEVEL EYE. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB REMAIN AT T3.5/55 KT...BUT THE DATA-T\r\nNUMBER FROM TAFB WAS 4.0/65 KT. A RECENT CIRA INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\n62 KT...ALONG WITH THE TRMM MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE...JUSTIFIES\r\nINCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 60 KT. ALTHOUGH DALILA HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASING AT THE RATE OF ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY OR 20 KT EVERY 24\r\nHOURS...THAT INTENSIFICATION TREND IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST MUCH\r\nLONGER. THE VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN\r\nMODEST AT 12-15 KT FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOFFSET THE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS OF 27-28C SSTS. NOW THAT\r\nDALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...COLD UPWELLING BENEATH THE\r\nCYCLONE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BECOME A FACTOR SINCE UPPER-OCEAN HEAT\r\nCONTENT VALUES ARE QUITE LOW AT ONLY 3-5 UNITS. EVEN THOUGH THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 5 KT OR SO AFTER 24 HOURS...COOLER\r\nWATERS AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ARE EXPECTED TO HINDER THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT PROCESS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND\r\nFSSE INTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT DALILA HAS SLOWED\r\nDOWN CONSIDERABLY AS EXPECTED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\nNOW 290/05 KT. THE EXTENSIVE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF DALILA\r\nIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD AND\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION. BY 48\r\nHOURS...HOWEVER...THE GFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT A\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD OCCUR DUE TO SOME BINARY INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE DEVELOPING LARGE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE EAST\r\nOVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE\r\nDEVELOPMENT OF AND INFLUENCE BY THE LATTER FEATURE...BOTH THE\r\nREASONING AND THE FORECAST TRACK REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 18.2N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 18.3N 107.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 18.4N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 18.4N 108.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 18.3N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 18.3N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 18.4N 112.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 18.5N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0000-0400 UTC INDICATES THAT\r\nDALILA HAS LOST ORGANIZATION...POSSIBLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF\r\nMODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTER HAS DECREASED...WITH THE\r\nCENTER NOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KT...AND USING THIS\r\nALONG WITH THE DECREASED ORGANIZATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH REQUIRES A RE-LOCATION FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 270/4.  DALILA\r\nIS IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENT BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO ITS EAST...AND A LARGE\r\nAREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THE LATTER DISTURBANCE\r\nIS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD DALILA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD...MAKING THIS A\r\nLOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST.  THE NAVGEM...GFDL...AND GFDN FORECAST THE\r\nSTORM TO MOVED NORTHWESTWARD WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE ECMWF\r\nAND UKMET FORECAST A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION DUE TO INTERACTION WITH\r\nTHE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.  THE GFS AND THE HWRF FORECAST A SLOW\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...AND THIS IS THE BASIS FOR\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND\r\nSLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION AND\r\nMOTION.\r\n\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK COMPLICATES THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  ON ONE\r\nSIDE...THE SLOWER AND MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nOVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  ON\r\nTHE OTHER SIDE...THE ECMWF..UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL\r\nFORECAST DALILA TO DISSIPATE BEFORE 120 HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION\r\nWITH THE DISTURBANCE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST COMPROMISES BETWEEN\r\nTHESE POSSIBILITIES...SHOWING LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR 36-48\r\nHOURS FOLLWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE NEW DISTURBANCE GETS\r\nCLOSER.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 17.7N 106.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.7N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 17.7N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 17.5N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 17.2N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 17.0N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-07-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF DALILA IS HIDDEN BENEATH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND\r\nHAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS.  A 0319\r\nUTC SSM/I IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS DISPLACED NEARLY HALF A\r\nDEGREE SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER NO MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES OF THE CENTER HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE THAT TIME.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/2.  A SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AS DALILA REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nDALILA.  THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nREMAINS HIGH AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE ECMWF FORECASTS THAT A LAYER OF\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN DALILA...AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE ALMOST DUE SOUTH.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE GFS FORECASTS THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT ENTRAIN INTO THE\r\nCENTER OF DALILA...AND A DEEPER VORTEX WILL TRACK WESTWARD AFTER 48\r\nHOURS.  IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK\r\nPROCESSES ARE ARTIFICIALLY MOISTENING THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT IN\r\nTHE GFS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSOUTHWARD...A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FORECAST...AND IS ROUGHLY\r\nA CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT...BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR.\r\nMOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF\r\nDRY AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND NOW CALLS FOR DALILA\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.7N 106.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 17.6N 107.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 17.2N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 17.0N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-07-02 18:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF DALILA.  A\r\nCOUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL EYE...AND A FAINT\r\nEYE IS SEEN IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  BASED ON THE\r\nNUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO\r\nAS IT INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR AND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC\r\nCIRCULATION TO ITS EAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A\r\nLITTLE.  OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1800Z 18.3N 107.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-07-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013\r\n \r\nA COUPLE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES...RECEIVED SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF\r\nTHE 1500 UTC ADVISORY...SHOWED THAT THE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF\r\nDALILA BECAME SUBSTANTIALLY BETTER DEFINED DURING THE MORNING\r\nHOURS. IN PARTICULAR...1335 UTC WINDSAT MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED THAT\r\nTHAT AN EYE HAD DEVELOPED.  THAT PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF DALILA WAS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED POSITION.  A\r\nRAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE IS STILL PRESENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME FAIRLY SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 65 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THERE HAS BEEN A LARGE UPWARD\r\nSHIFT IN THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD...ALTHOUGH IT\r\nNOW LIES ON THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE RANGE.  DALILA IS STILL\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A\r\nDRIER ENVIRONMENT AND OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN EASIER TO LOCATE...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN.  IN THE SHORT RANGE...A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE\r\nNORTH OF DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED TO IMPART A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THERE REMAINS A VERY\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT...AND THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nHAVE NOT COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. THE GFS STILL SHOWS A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD-MOVING STRONG CYCLONE...WHILE THE ECMWF\r\nFORECASTS A SOUTHWARD-MOVING WEAK LOW.  GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF\r\nDALILA...MORE CREDENCE IS BEING GIVEN TO THE FORMER SCENARIO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.4N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 18.3N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 18.0N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 17.7N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 17.5N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 18.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF DALILA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION\r\nDURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE STILL MAINTAINING A\r\nSMALL AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO. A 0016 UTC SSMI/S PASS DID...\r\nHOWEVER...SHOW A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE INNER CORE...WITH THE\r\nEYEWALL OPEN TO THE EAST. THE MID-LEVEL CENTER ALSO WAS DISPLACED\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT\r\nAT 65 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT4.0/65 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DALILA CHANGING LITTLE IN\r\nSTRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE\r\nSHOULD BE PASSING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO\r\nANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY RELATED TO MODERATE EAST-\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE ECMWF SHOWS DALILA QUICKLY WEAKENING AS A RESULT\r\nOF THE ENTRAINMENT OF A LAYER OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF DALILA. IT\r\nIS DIFFICULT...HOWEVER...TO IMAGINE THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THAT THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE EAST.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO LEAN ON THE GFS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN NEAR THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nDALILA IS NOT MOVING MUCH. A LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF SATELLITE FIXES\r\nYIELDS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/02.\r\nHOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTO SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT MAY HAVE COMMENCED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nCREATED A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE\r\nSTRONG HEAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nDALILA TO TURN SOUTH OF WEST WITH SOME MINOR INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERSE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL\r\nFORECASTING A WEAK CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATING.  THE\r\nGFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY\r\nTRACK. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO WEIGH THE GFS\r\nSOLUTION MORE...AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CLOSER TO THE GFS\r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 18.3N 107.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 18.1N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 17.7N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 17.4N 108.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 17.4N 109.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 17.6N 111.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013\r\n\r\nEARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CORE CONVECTION OF\r\nDALILA HAD AGAIN BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...POSSIBLY DUE TO\r\nSHEAR INDICATED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE\r\nEAST.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN PERSISTENTLY\r\nNEAR OR COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 65 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHIS IS GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/2.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nEITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY.  A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES SHOULD BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF EASTERN MEXICO MOVES TOWARD\r\nDALILA.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERSE AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH\r\nFORECAST TRACKS SPREAD BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK WILL SHOW A\r\nGENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DALILA TO DISSIPATE\r\nCOMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM\r\nMODEL SHOW IT SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nFOR 5 DAYS.  THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SEEN\r\nNEAR THE CYCLONE IN MICROWAVE DATA...WHILE THE SURVIVAL SCENARIO IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS\r\nOF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE\r\nSURVIVAL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR DALILA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH FOR 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO MATCH THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 18.1N 107.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 17.8N 107.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 17.2N 109.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 17.2N 110.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 17.5N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dalila","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013\r\n \r\nDALILA APPEARS TO HAVE UNDERGONE ANOTHER STRUCTURAL\r\nTRANSFORMATION...AND A 0935 UTC MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM TRMM INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE INNER-CORE HAD BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  A\r\nCONSENSUS OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT\r\n1200 UTC IS ABOUT 70 KT...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A\r\nLITTLE SINCE THEN...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 65\r\nKT.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH...AND SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT DALILA WILL REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE FIRST 48\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT...STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE DALILA\r\nMOVES INTO AN AREA OF COLDER WATER AND STRONGER SHEAR...AS\r\nINDICATED BY THE SHIPS DIAGNOSTIC OUTPUT.  DALILA IS STILL EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF DALILA REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIND...HOWEVER\r\nEXTRAPOLATING THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS\r\nINDICATED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM PASS YIELDS AN ESTIMATED\r\nMOTION OF 240/3.  DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE TURNING TO THE\r\nWEST AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO\r\nITS NORTH PROPAGATES EASTWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE STILL\r\nVARIES GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY DALILA WILL TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY NEAR THAT OF\r\nTHE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN A GOOD PERFORMER FOR THIS STORM THUS FAR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 17.8N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 17.6N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 17.2N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 17.1N 111.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 19.0N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013\r\n \r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING RECENTLY...AND THE CDO HAS TAKEN ON A\r\nPATTERN THAT IS MORE INDICATIVE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DECREASING FOR THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SUBJECTIVE DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO\r\nDECREASED.  BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...DALILA HAS BEEN\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.  THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY COULD FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A LITTLE TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE NEW INITIAL INTENSITY...AND STILL SHOWS DALILA\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL OBSCURED...A COUPLE OF\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT IT IS DISPLACED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE CDO.  THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN\r\nDRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE DAY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 230/3.  DALILA IS BEING STEERED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.  A TURN TOWARD THE WEST...AND\r\nEVENTUALLY THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE\r\nPROPAGATES EASTWARD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL DOES NOT AGREE ON\r\nHOW QUICKLY THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...AND THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD AT\r\n3-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH...BUT REMAINS NEAR THE FSSE AND GFS MODEL PREDICTIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 17.4N 108.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 17.1N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 16.8N 109.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 16.8N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 16.9N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 17.6N 114.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 18.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 18.5N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 03 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS REVEALS THAT THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN OF DALILA IS DETERIORATING FAST. AN SSMI/S MICROWAVE\r\nPASS...AROUND 0000 UTC...SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nREMOVED FROM A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...\r\nLATEST AVAILABLE SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS COULD BE\r\nLOWER THAN INDICATED. HOWEVER...SINCE I INHERITED A 60-KNOT\r\nSTORM...I WOULD RATHER LOWER THE WINDS GRADUALLY...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KNOTS. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AND STABLE AIR IS\r\nALREADY AFFECTING THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS\r\nINCREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING...BUT THIS PROCESS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.\r\n\r\nDALILA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE DAY...TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nON A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nTRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 17.6N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 17.4N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 17.6N 112.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 18.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0000Z 19.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013\r\n\r\nDALILA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO ONGOING MODERATE\r\nEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT...WITH THE\r\nCENTER NOW ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE REMAINING CONVECTION.  BASED\r\nMAINLY ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO AN UNCERTAIN 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 265/4.  A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEER DALILA GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD\r\nINTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nSOUTHEAST.  SHOULD THIS INTERACTION OCCUR...DALILA COULD MOVE MORE\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHWEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING DALILA TO STEADILY WEAKEN.  IN\r\nADDITION...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nDALILA TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND\r\nTO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT BOTH OF THESE EVENTS COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 17.5N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 17.4N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 17.4N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 17.5N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 17.9N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013\r\n \r\nDRY AIR AND EASTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON DALILA AS THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM HAS DIMINISHED VERY QUICKLY\r\nOVERNIGHT.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO\r\n35 KT WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE LATEST T-NUMBERS AND EARLIER\r\nOSCAT DATA.  ALTHOUGH DALILA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER MARGINALLY\r\nWARM SSTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THE DRY AIR AND SHEAR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  DALILA IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.\r\n \r\nDALILA APPEARS TO BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR 265\r\nDEGREES AT 6 KT. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nIS FORECAST AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSHIFTS EASTWARD.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT DALILA OR ITS REMNANTS COULD INTERACT WITH THE NEW\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST.  BECAUSE OF THIS POSSIBILITY...\r\nTHE TRACK DURING THE POST-TROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 17.4N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 17.3N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 17.4N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 17.7N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 18.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 18.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 18.8N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dalila","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON...DALILA BARELY QUALIFIES\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT \r\nAND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA AND A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS\r\nDVORAK T- AND CI-NUMBERS.  DRY AIR AND MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN EVEN\r\nTHOUGH IT WILL REMAIN OVER SSTS OF 26 TO 27 DEGREES CELSIUS FOR\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.  DALIA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nDALILA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT. A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  \r\nTHE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS AT MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN DALIA AND \r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  THIS IS LIKELY TO \r\nCAUSE THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECELERATE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  \r\nTHE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ONCE AGAIN SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AFTER 36 TO 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 17.3N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 17.3N 111.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 17.5N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 17.8N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 18.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 18.3N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 18.3N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":22,"Date":"2013-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013\r\n \r\nDALILA CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nINTERMITTENT PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION. GIVEN THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE PROBABLY CONFINED TO\r\nAREAS OF CONVECTION. \r\n\r\nDALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR\r\nAND STABLE AIR...AND MOST LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A REMANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE IF A FEW MORE\r\nROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...AS DALILA\r\nMOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND BEFORE\r\nTHE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 17.3N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 17.5N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 17.7N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 17.8N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":23,"Date":"2013-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n \r\nDALILA STUBBORNLY PERSISTS IN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION...THOUGH\r\nIN A LIMITED AREA...DESPITE THE 12-15 KT SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND MINIMAL 27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  A PERFECTLY PLACED\r\nASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0424Z INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT PEAK WINDS\r\nFOR THE SYSTEM...MATCHING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY VALUES.  DALILA MAY HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 12-18\r\nHOURS OR SO AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE THE OUTFLOW OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM ERICK...DRY STABLE AIR...AND COOLER SSTS CAUSE THE CONVECTION\r\nTO CEASE FOR GOOD.  AFTERWARDS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE AS A\r\nREMNANT LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.  THE FORECAST MAINTAINS DALILA\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE SLIGHTLY LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE ASCAT PASS ALSO PROVIDED FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE\r\nPOSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF DALILA...WHICH IS WEST AT 7 KT. THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BUT AT A SLOWER RATE\r\nOF SPEED...PRIMARILY BY A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT REMAINS\r\nNORTH OF DALILA. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 17.2N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 17.3N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 17.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 17.3N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 17.1N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":24,"Date":"2013-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AND INCREASED IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T2.8/41 KT...\r\nT2.5/35 KT...AND T1.0/25 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...TAFB...AND SAB...\r\nRESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH DALILA CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE A SHEARED\r\nTROPICAL STORM...THE CYCLONE IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT\r\nDEPRESSION SINCE THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD IS JUST NOW\r\nENDING AND THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE TEMPORARY.\r\nHOWEVER...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONGER WINDS EXISTING\r\nWEST OF THE CENTER...THE GUST DIFFERENTIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED FROM\r\nTHE USUAL 40 KT TO 45 KT IN THE FORECAST/ADVISORY PRODUCT.\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DALILA DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO HAVE MUCH OF A FUTURE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO\r\nMODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEING CREATED BY THE\r\nOUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM ERICK...WHICH IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 NMI\r\nTO THE EAST. AS ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE CLOSER TO\r\nDALILA...ITS UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL ALSO INCREASE AND INDUCE EVEN\r\nGREATER SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO HASTEN THE DEMISE OF DALILA\r\nWITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nCONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN.\r\n \r\nEARLIER ASCAT PASSES AND NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT\r\nDALILA HAS SLOWED DOWN MARKEDLY...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nIS NOW 265/03 KT. AS DALILA UNDERGOES SOME BINARY INTERACTION WITH\r\nERICK TO ITS EAST AND ENCOUNTERS A STRENGTHENING MID-/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO ITS WEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD REMAIN TRAPPED IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW REGIME AND ONLY DRIFT\r\nSLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 17.1N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 17.1N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 17.1N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 16.9N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":25,"Date":"2013-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A\r\n1654Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 26-KT WIND VECTORS JUST WEST\r\nOF THE CENTER WHEN AT LEAST SOME MODEST CONVECTION WAS STILL\r\nPRESENT. GIVEN THE WORSENING APPEARANCE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nTONIGHT...THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM\r\nERICK LOCATED TO THE EAST. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY 24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE\r\nTHE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03 KT. NOW THAT THE LOW- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...DALILA SHOULD BE\r\nINFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nFLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nERICK. AS ERICK DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE...DALILA COULD TURN\r\nMORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DALILA\r\nWILL NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 17.1N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 17.1N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 16.9N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":26,"Date":"2013-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n \r\nDALILA NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS AS SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATED SINCE\r\nABOUT 18Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. BECAUSE OF\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A\r\nCOOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...LONG-LASTING DEEP CONVECTION IN DALILA\r\nIS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS.\r\n\r\nDALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE WEAK.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nBASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 17.1N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 17.1N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 17.1N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 17.1N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":27,"Date":"2013-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nSTUBBORNLY...DALILA REFUSES TO FADE. THIS EVENING...PERHAPS IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH THE LATE NIGHT-EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE\r\nMAXIMUM...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RETURNED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THUS THE ANTICIPATED DEGENERATION OF DALILA INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IS DELAYED...TEMPORARILY. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nINDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE\r\nAIRMASS...THIS REFOUND CONVECTION IN DALILA SHOULD NOT BE\r\nLONG-LASTING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW\r\nSHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nDALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY\r\nSTEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE HAS NEARLY COLLAPSED.  EITHER\r\nA CONTINUED VERY SLOW WESTWARD MOVEMENT OR ERRATIC MOTION IS\r\nANTICIPATED TO OCCUR UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nBASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE\r\nTRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 17.0N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 17.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 17.0N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":28,"Date":"2013-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nFINALLY...THE ROLES HAVE BEEN REVERSED...DALILA GETS SHEARED. THERE\r\nIS VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING WITH THE CYCLONE...AND WHAT\r\nCONVECTION THAT DOES EXIST IS RATHER SHALLOW AND LIMITED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS AT 0728 UTC INDICATED\r\nUNFLAGGED WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION NEAR 25 KT...AND THAT IS THE\r\nINTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING SHEAR CAUSED BY THE\r\nOUTFLOW FROM NOW HURRICANE ERICK LOCATED ABOUT 500 NMI TO THE EAST\r\nOF DALILA...WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INCREASE...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN DALILA BECOMING A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE\r\nAREA LATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nDALILA HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND\r\nLITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED NOW THAT DALILA HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE\r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM\r\nWILL BE THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE ERICK...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE DALILA AND ITS REMNANT CIRCULATION TO MEANDER IN\r\nTHE SAME GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE\r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF ERICK AS IT\r\nPASSES TO THE NORTH OF DALILA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 17.0N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 17.0N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 17.0N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":29,"Date":"2013-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nDALILA IS ON THE CUSP OF BECOMING A REMNANT LOW.  THERE IS A SMALL\r\nBURST OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS\r\nBARELY ORGANIZED.  IN FACT...THE WIND SPEEDS ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA\r\nHAVE EITHER BEEN STEADY OR GRADUALLY COMING DOWN DURING THE PAST\r\n24 HOURS.  THIS TREND SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE NOT\r\nPARTICULARLY ORGANIZED...AND ARE MORE LIKE RANDOM PUFFS OF\r\nDISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CHARACTERISTIC OF A REMNANT LOW.  IF THE\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...DALILA IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nDECLARED A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING.  THE INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...\r\nAND A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS PROBABLE GIVEN INCREASING SHEAR FROM\r\nHURRICANE ERICK.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.  DALILA SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO BE DRAWN EASTWARD THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nTHE MUCH LARGER ERICK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL A BIT\r\nEAST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 17.0N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 17.0N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 17.1N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 17.3N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Dalila","Adv":30,"Date":"2013-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nA LITTLE BIT OF DEEP CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DALILA EARLIER...BUT THE LAST SIGNIFICANT BURST\r\nDISSIPATED A FEW HOURS AGO.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND\r\nSUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW OF HURRICANE ERICK IS\r\nSQUELCHING THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nDO SO ACCORDING TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS\r\nABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH LONGER...IT WILL LIKELY BE\r\nDESIGNATED A REMNANT LOW.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...BUT THE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER IF NO NEW CONVECTION\r\nREFORMS SOON.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS BEFORE...AND\r\nIN LINE WITH THE BULK OF THE MODEL INTENSITY OUTPUT.\r\n \r\nDALILA DRIFTED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nBUT APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED ITS HEADING TOWARD THE EAST OR EAST-\r\nSOUTHEAST MORE RECENTLY.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS GRADUALLY BEING ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF\r\nHURRICANE ERICK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FIRST MOVING\r\nEASTWARD AND THEN TURNING NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS GENERALLY\r\nLEFT OR NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 16.8N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 16.8N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 16.9N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 17.4N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 18.0N 112.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/0000Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Dalila","Adv":31,"Date":"2013-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP042013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013\r\n\r\nDALILA LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO. ALTHOUGH A\r\nSMALL PATCH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REDEVELOPED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...THIS CERTAINLY DOES NOT MEET THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION\r\nREQUIREMENT FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...DALILA HAS NOT\r\nPRODUCED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR SOME TIME. THEREFORE...DALILA\r\nIS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 25 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM\r\nAROUND 0430 UTC. \r\n\r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nEASTWARD LATER TODAY...AND THEN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY AS IT GETS\r\nDRAWN INTO THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 16.8N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 16.8N 112.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 17.1N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 18.0N 112.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 04 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE.   THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB DVORAK\r\nESTIMATE AND AN EARLIER OSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nMODERATE-TO-STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE\r\nDEPRESSION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY NOT ALLOW\r\nFOR MUCH INTENSIFICATION.  A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nAFTER THAT TIME WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A BIT WHILE THE\r\nSYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM WATER.  ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN AT LEAST MODERATE...LIKELY INHIBITING\r\nANY RAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION BECOMING A MID-RANGE TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/9.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW ENOUGH RIDGING OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE DEPRESSION OFFSHORE. \r\nTHE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nA MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT THAT TIME.  EXCEPT FOR THE THE\r\nGFDL AND ITS ENSEMBLE...WHICH BRING THE STORM CLOSER TO MEXICO... \r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS\r\nBEEN A TOP PERFORMER THIS SEASON.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 13.4N  98.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 14.3N  99.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 15.3N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 16.1N 102.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 16.6N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 18.9N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 19.5N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SHOWING BANDING SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  AN EARLIER MICROWAVE PASS...HOWEVER...SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM LACKED ANY INNER CORE FEATURES...WITH A LARGER-THAN-AVERAGE\r\nAREA OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nWILL STAY 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH THE INCREASING DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUGGEST IT WILL SOON BECOME A STORM.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...310/9.  A WEAK\r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM ON THIS GENERAL\r\nCOURSE FOR THE DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WILL BUILD\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MEXICO...CAUSING THE DEPRESSION TO TURN\r\nMORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...EXACTLY WHEN THE DEPRESSION MAKES THAT\r\nTURN IS UNCERTAIN.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE\r\nMEXICAN COAST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.  THE FORECAST CHANGE REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nA PORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...AND A WARNING COULD\r\nBE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT IF A NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES.\r\n \r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION AS LONG AS\r\nTHE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE.  CONDITIONS COULD GET MORE\r\nFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES AWAY FROM\r\nMEXICO IN A FEW DAYS...BUT THEN IT WILL BE QUICKLY APPROACHING\r\nCOOLER WATER.  THUS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...WHICH LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nLGEM/SHIPS MODELS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 14.2N  99.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 15.0N 100.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 16.1N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 16.8N 103.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 17.7N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 19.1N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 04 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK IS DOMINATED BY A MASS OF COLD-TOPPED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE ALSO INCREASED AND GAINED SLIGHTLY MORE CURVATURE\r\nDURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A PAIR OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES WITHIN\r\nINDICATED THAT THE CENTER IS BETTER DEFINED BUT EXPOSED NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE NEAREST DEEP CONVECTION. A BLEND OF A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB OF T2.5/35 KT...MICROWAVE-ADJUSTED\r\nOBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS OF 3.0...AND AN\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nIT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE INITIAL MOTION...BUT RECENT FIXES SUGGEST\r\nA MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/10. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nCARIBBEAN SEA AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THE HEADING OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD IN 2-3 DAYS IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAT RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SLIDING EASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE MAIN SYNOPTIC\r\nFEATURES...THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT EXACTLY WHEN THE\r\nCHANGE IN TRACK WILL OCCUR.  THIS DETAIL TO THE FORECAST HAS\r\nIMPLICATIONS ON HOW FAR OFFSHORE ERICK WILL TRACK FROM THE COAST OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE RIGHT AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ECMWF AND THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nMODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR PREVAILS OVER THE STORM...\r\nACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INTENSIFICATION THAT CAN OCCUR DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...DESPITE FAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS. WHILE THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES MAY WEAKEN AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL HAVE\r\nLIKELY ALREADY REACHED COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\nTHEREFORE...STEADY TO RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...WITH REMNANT LOW STATUS FOREAST BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE LATEST TREND AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS...IVCN AND ICON. \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO\r\nHAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE\r\nSOUTWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 14.9N 100.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 15.8N 101.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 16.6N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 17.4N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 18.3N 105.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 19.9N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 21.2N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n\r\nERICK IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH A LARGE AREA OF\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C NEAR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...\r\nAND IN A BAND NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND TWO RECENT\r\nASCAT OVERPASSES SUGGEST THE WINDS ARE AT LEAST 35 KT.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS AND CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE SCATTEROMETER DATA...RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND DATA FROM\r\nTHE ACAPULCO RADAR INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION 300/11.  OTHER THAN THIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  A COMBINATION OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE\r\nERICK TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 72-96 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION.  THE\r\nBIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL THE CENTER BE TO THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH THE\r\nGFDL...GFDN...AND CANADIAN MODELS TO THE RIGHT OF IT.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\nANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SUCH AS FORECAST BY THE\r\nABOVE-MENTIONED MODELS...WOULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITION ONTO\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n\r\nERICK IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO PERSIST WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN AMOUNT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS\r\nARE FORECASTING A STRONGER ERICK THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND SHOW THE\r\nCYCLONE BECOMING A HURRICANE IN 36-48 HR.  ALSO...THE SHIPS RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A BETTER THAN 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25\r\nKT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...\r\nIF THE CENTER GETS TOO CLOSE TO THE COAST...LAND INTERACTION COULD\r\nRESULT IN A WEAKER CYCLONE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT DOES NOT CALL FOR ERICK\r\nTO BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE SHIPS/LGEM\r\nMODELS AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 15.2N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 15.9N 102.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 16.8N 103.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 17.6N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 18.6N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 20.5N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 21.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 22.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n \r\nERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED...WITH TIGHT BANDING IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT SOME INNER\r\nCORE FEATURES HAVE FORMED WITH PERHAPS THE START OF AN EYEWALL ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT... A BIT\r\nBELOW THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION FROM\r\nOVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE\r\nLEADING THE INTENSITY CHANGE.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH CONSIDERABLY\r\nLESS SHEAR FORECAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24H FOLLOWS THE TREND\r\nOF THE SHIPS/LGEM/FSSE MODELS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\nGIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND...THIS FORECAST COULD BE TOO\r\nCONSERVATIVE. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY\r\nCLOSE TO SOME COOLER WATERS THAT DALILA UPWELLED A FEW DAYS\r\nAGO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS FROM THE\r\nTYPICAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AFTER 24H AND THEN STARTS A MORE RAPID\r\nDECLINE...SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/9.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL STAY OVER\r\nMEXICO TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING ON ABOUT THE SAME PATH FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH\r\nTHE FIRST 48H...KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT LEAST 90 NMI OFFSHORE OF\r\nMEXICO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER\r\nRIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STAY FIRM OR IF AN UPPER LOW\r\nWILL ERODE PART OF THE RIDGE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD\r\nTO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS STILL KEEP THE STORM OFFSHORE OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 15.8N 102.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS INTENSIFYING WITH A\r\nDEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES.\r\nMICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM...ALTHOUGH\r\nIT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ITS PRIMITIVE STAGES. OBJECTIVE AND\r\nSUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 55-60 KT FOR THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED...AND 60 KT IS CHOSEN BASED ON THE CONTINUED UPWARD\r\nTREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL\r\nFORWARD MOTION OF 300/9...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHEASTWARD\r\nSHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHIFT\r\nAPPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSOLUTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM. WHILE THIS CHANGE STILL KEEPS ERICK OFFSHORE OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT\r\nTO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS\r\nSTILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE. THIS LOWERING COULD BE DUE TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY\r\nOF MORE LAND INTERACTION AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO COOLER\r\nWATERS A BIT FASTER. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS DECREASED\r\nSOMEWHAT AFTER 24H TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...AND IS NEAR OR A\r\nBIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 16.2N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE HINT OF AN EYE OBSERVED EARLIER IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY\r\nIS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL\r\nDEFINED RING OF CONVECTION WHICH NORMALLY LEADS THE FORMATION OF AN\r\nEYE. A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE\r\nTHAT ERICK IS NOT A HURRICANE YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nAT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON IR AND\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...ERIC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON.\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS A MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36\r\nHOURS...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH COOLER\r\nWATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.\r\n \r\nERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AND\r\nTHIS BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...PRIMARILY\r\nTHE GFS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST RUN.\r\nIN FACT...THE GFS MADE A BIG CHANGE IN THE 1800 UTC RUN AND NOW HAS\r\nERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...AND IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. BEYOND\r\n36 HOURS...ERICK WILL BE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THIS PATTERN WOULD\r\nFORCE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT\r\nBASED ON A SHIP REPORT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING TO CABO CORRIENTES.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 16.7N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 17.5N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 20.2N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 21.4N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nERICK CONTINUES TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH TOPS\r\nCOLDER THAN -80C NEAR ITS CENTER...AND THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL\r\nATTEMPTS TO FORM AN EYE.  HOWEVER...ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE DATA\r\nDURING THE PAST 12-18 HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS HAVING TROUBLE\r\nBECOMING VERTICALLY ALIGNED...WITH THE MID-LEVEL EYE CONSISTENTLY TO\r\nTHE WEST OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS\r\nAND THE OBSERVED STRUCTURE IN MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON\r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 315/7.  A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH THE MOTION\r\nBECOMING MORE WESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS A STRONGER RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  WHILE\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A\r\nFAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD AND SOME SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER MODELS.  THE GFS\r\nMOVES THE STORM ONSHORE SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES...WHILE THE UKMET\r\nAND GFDL MODELS BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BASED IN THE SHORT-TERM ON THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION AND IN THE LONGER TERM BY A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE.  WHILE IT KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ON TO THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST SIMILAR TO THE GFS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nIF THE CYCLONE DOES NOT HIT THE MEXICAN COAST...IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN\r\nTO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...ERICK SHOULD\r\nMOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD BE AS\r\nCOLD AS 20-21C BY THE 96 HOUR POINT.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW AROUND 96 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA SAN\r\nTELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 17.3N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 18.0N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 19.0N 105.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 20.3N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 21.5N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 23.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 24.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0600Z 24.0N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erick","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE.  THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH\r\nLITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ\r\nMICROWAVE CHANNELS.  IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE\r\nFORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70\r\nKT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE\r\nWEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX.  \r\n\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8.  THERE IS NO\r\nCHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A\r\nSTRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION.  THE BULK OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST\r\nSTILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nTRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.  \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT\r\nFAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO.  THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE\r\nMORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR. \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE\r\nTO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH\r\nLAND.  A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND\r\nWITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR.  THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erick","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERICK\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BANDING EYE\r\nFEATURE HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nWHILE A MID-LEVEL EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS\r\nADT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A STEADY 310/08 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR\r\nREASONING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP\r\nERICK MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER\r\nTHAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF AND UKMET MODELS TAKING ERICK OVER\r\nOR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...\r\nAND NAVGEM MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING ERICK MORE WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS.\r\nGIVEN THAT ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-23C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS\r\nAND LIKELY BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS MORE\r\nTOWARD THE WEAKER AND WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS MODEL. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF ERICK OFFSHORE...ANY\r\nDEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER AND\r\nSTRONGER WINDS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.\r\n \r\nERICK COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO...BUT THE NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nSHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID STRENGTHENING FROM\r\nOCCURRING. BY 36 HOURS... HOWEVER...SHARPLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE STEADY\r\nIF NOT RAPID WEAKENING DESPITE THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE LOW\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT ERICK WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN AND ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 18.1N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erick","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013\r\n \r\nTHE PROXIMITY OF ERICK TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO APPEARS TO BE TAKING SOME TOLL ON THE CYCLONE.  RECENT\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN AND INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nDEGRADED SOME THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nNUMBERS REMAIN BETWEEN T4.0 AND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR NOW.  ERICK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN\r\nINTENSITY SINCE LAND INTERACTION AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOLDER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE.  THIS\r\nSHOULD HASTEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE UPDATED INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON.\r\n \r\nERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME.  AFTER 24 HOURS...\r\nTHERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE \r\nWITH THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nINDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA.  FOR NOW THE NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND\r\nIS CLOSE TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nBASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS\r\nISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSUR.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 18.7N 105.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Erick","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING\r\nFEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A\r\nBLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL\r\nBE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO\r\nA REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nBLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 310/9.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS\r\nIS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF\r\nTHE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO. \r\nALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL\r\nMOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM\r\nMANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS WEAKENING. THE CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND NO\r\nSIGNS OF AN EYE IN THE LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 60 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nTAFB/SAB/CIMSS DVORAK ESTIMATES. IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT ERICK HAS\r\nPEAKED IN INTENSITY WITH THE CYCLONE NOW CROSSING OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED IS FORECAST...A BIT BELOW\r\nTHE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION. THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER SUB-22C WATER...IF NOT SOONER.    \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 310/9.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED\r\nTO HOLD FIRM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING ERICK TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD...THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS IT BECOMES A\r\nMORE SHALLOW SYSTEM.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE STORM\r\nPASSING SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS TO THE COAST.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BETWEEN THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\nBECAUSE ERICK IS MOVING AWAY FROM MAINLAND MEXICO...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES HAS BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 20.0N 107.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 20.8N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 21.9N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 23.0N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 24.0N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 25.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK REMAINS VIGOROUS...THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS LOST MOST OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.\r\nRECENTLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  THE NEW NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nSHOWING A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND\r\nENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR.  ERICK SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 300/9.  A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH\r\nAMERICA.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE\r\nMODELS ON THIS ADVISORY CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS\r\nTREND BY BEING JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. \r\nAS ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TURN AND SLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 20.3N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 21.0N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 22.9N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 23.9N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013\r\n \r\nTHE BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON HAS PERSISTED INTO\r\nTHIS EVENING...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY STARTED TO WARM.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nVARIOUS DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS A RESULT...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING. THE \r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/8.  ERICK IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND\r\nECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 20.8N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ERICK HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING IN\r\nBANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND\r\n0415 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT.  BASED ON THE ASCAT DATA AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED A BIT TO 45 KT.  ERICK IS ALREADY\r\nOVER WATER TEMPERATURES BELOW 26C AND IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE\r\nUNFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A DRIER AND MORE\r\nSTABLE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CAUSE ERICK TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36\r\nHOURS...WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nNEAR 20C.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nTHE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...\r\n305/8.  THIS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ERICK WILL BE MAKING ITS CLOSEST\r\nAPPROACH TO THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS\r\nMORNING.  ONCE ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS FORECAST TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH THIS\r\nCYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION BUT LIES TO THE SOUTH OF SOME OF THE TYPICALLY\r\nBETTER-PERFORMING MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 21.3N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 22.1N 110.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 25.2N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013\r\n \r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF ERICK HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER\r\nTHE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nHAVE DECREASED...AND AN 0502 ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER ARE PROBABLY NO GREATER THAN 40 KT. BASED ON ALL OF\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40\r\nKT. ERICK IS TRAVERSING OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE...AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY BENEATH THE\r\nCYCLONE IS LESS THAN 25C. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND INTO A DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSTILL INDICATES THAT ERICK WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE 0502 ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF ERICK IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY\r\nESTIMATED...HOWEVER THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY\r\nUNCHANGED. ERICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...LOCATED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE REMNANTS WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nWHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE NEW INITIAL POSITION...THE NHC FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 22.2N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 23.2N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 24.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 25.1N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erick","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013\r\n \r\nERICK HAS TAKEN ON A SHEARED APPEARANCE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nHAS BECOME EXPOSED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE NOT CHANGED...AND A\r\n1730Z ASCAT PASS ALSO SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 40\r\nKT. THE APPARENT DECOUPLING OF THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS IS\r\nLIKELY THE RESULT OF SUB-24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH\r\nERICK...AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO ITS CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.\r\n\r\nERICK HAS PROBABLY MADE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA COAST AND THE ESTIMATED MOTION IS 310/9. A RIDGE OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON\r\nTHIS GENERAL HEADING FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO MAKE A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND HAS NOT\r\nCHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 22.6N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 23.6N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 24.7N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 25.4N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 25.7N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erick","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 08 2013\r\n \r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 2239 UTC SSM/I IMAGE\r\nSHOWED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ERICK TO BE PARTIALLY EXPOSED...WITH\r\nDEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. A BLEND OF\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGESTS AN INTENSITY OF 35\r\nKT AT 0000 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH ERICK HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED...AND ERICK IS\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS BASIS. STEADY\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE SINCE ERICK IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE\r\nINCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND ENTER AND AN EVEN MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS...IN\r\nLINE WITH THE LATEST INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF ERICK IS GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/09.\r\nA MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER\r\nERICK ON A SIMILAR HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE SHALLOW CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE\r\nWESTERLY AND DECELERATE PRIOR TO DISSIPATION.  THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 23.2N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 24.1N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 25.1N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 25.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 26.0N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Erick","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...PRACTICALLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH ERICK HAS DISSIPATED.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY OVER COOL\r\nWATERS AND WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING EVEN LOWER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nUNLIKELY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT ALTHOUGH THIS MAY\r\nBE GENEROUS.  ERICK SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND WILL PROBABLY BE\r\nDESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  THIS IS ALSO\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE AND\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE BEST GUESS IS\r\nTHAT IT REMAINS ON COURSE WITH A MOTION OF ABOUT 310/9.  THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAND DECELERATE WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 23.9N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 24.8N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Erick","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP052013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 09 2013\r\n \r\nERICK HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR AT LEAST \r\n12 HOURS NOW...WHICH MEANS THE SYSTEM HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7-8 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL\r\nKEEP THE SYSTEM OVER 20-21C SST WATER. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE\r\nREMNANT LOW OF ERICK DISSIPATING WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW...PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 24.4N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 25.1N 114.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 25.7N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 26.3N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 24 2013\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nTRACKING FOR A FEW DAYS ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HAS\r\nFINALLY DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND CIRCULATION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN FACT...A LARGE AREA OF DEEP\r\nCIRCULAR CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER\r\nSUGGESTING AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND. BOTH TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS.\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER... IT IS TOO LATE FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL BE REACHING\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN.     \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE THE CIRCULATION HAS JUST BEGUN\r\nTO CONSOLIDATE. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS\r\nGENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST SINCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AMPLIFY THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE A MORE WESTWARD STEERING IN\r\nTHE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH IS VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.       \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.9N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 16.5N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.5N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 18.5N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 20.0N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 21.0N 147.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN BOTH\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE LASTEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE NUDGED\r\nUPWARD TO 2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. IN ADDITION...A RECENT\r\nASCAT PASS SHOWED RELIABLE WINDS AROUND 35 KT. BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE.\r\nCONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN A\r\nLOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER\r\nWATERS THAT ARE COOLER THAN 26C ON FRIDAY. THESE LESS FAVORABLE\r\nOCEANIC CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A MORE STABLE AIRMASS AND SOME\r\nINCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN BEYOND 36 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES GENERALLY NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS CYCLE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 15.5N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 15.9N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 16.4N 129.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 17.3N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 18.0N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 19.6N 141.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 20.5N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 21.0N 151.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 25 2013\r\n \r\nSINCE THE BIG BURST OF CONVECTION ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. IN FACT...\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY...BUT\r\nFLOSSIE STILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME BEFORE THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE\r\nEFFECTS OF COOLER WATERS AND ADVERSE SHEAR MOST LIKELY WILL RESULT\r\nIN WEAKENING THEREAFTER...AND FLOSSIE IS FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA AROUND 1200 UTC INDICATE THAT THE CENTER WAS A LITTLE\r\nBIT SOUTH OF PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE OVERALL \r\nMOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS. FLOSSIE IS FULLY EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS STEERING\r\nPATTERN SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...KEEPING FLOSSIE\r\nON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A\r\nWEAKER FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADE WINDS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 15.3N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 15.5N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 16.2N 131.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 17.8N 137.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 19.0N 143.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 20.0N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 20.5N 154.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER AND THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE\r\nAPPEAR TO BE BETTER DEFINED...THE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED DURING\r\nTHE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  NONETHELESS...1736 UTC ASCAT DATA INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 40 KT...AND THAT WILL BE\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  FLOSSIE IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME FOR MUCH\r\nMORE STRENGTHENING SINCE THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO REACH COOLER\r\nWATERS IN ABOUT A DAY.  THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WINDS IS\r\nSHOWN IN THE FORECAST FOLLOWING THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY\r\nDAY 5...IF NOT SOONER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE DEGENERATED INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW OR A TROUGH.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nWESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS.  IT APPEARS THAT BECAUSE\r\nFLOSSIE IS A RELATIVELY SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS BEING STEERED\r\nWESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THERE IS A STRONG AND PERSISTENT\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP FLOSSIE ON A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE SLIGHT SHIFT OBSERVED IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.3N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 15.5N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 16.0N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 17.0N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 18.5N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 25 2013\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BANDS OVER THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION AND IN A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 00 UTC WERE UNCHANGED FROM\r\nEARLIER...AND A BLEND OF THE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT STILL SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT. THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS AS IT REMAINS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN FAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED WHILE FLOSSIE MOVES OVER WATERS THAT\r\nARE COOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS. THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS MORE OR LESS\r\nIN LINE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN ON A DUE WEST PATH TODAY...AND THE LATEST\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/15. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION AT\r\nABOUT THE SAME SPEED IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD AS\r\nFLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 15.1N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 15.4N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 16.0N 134.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 16.5N 138.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 17.1N 141.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 18.0N 147.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 18.5N 153.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 19.0N 159.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FLOSSIE HAS CONSOLIDATED SINCE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY. THE MOST PROMINENT AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED\r\nNEAR AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS AT 0600 UTC HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB...AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE ABOUT THE SAME. A\r\nRECENT ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KT\r\nRANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED\r\nUPWARD TO 45 KT. FLOSSIE HAS ABOUT ANOTHER DAY OVER RELATIVELY WARM\r\nWATER...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM. AFTER THAT TIME...HOWEVER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS\r\nEXPECTED DUE TO COOLER WATER...DRIER AIR...AND SOME INCREASE IN\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE IS ON A WESTWARD COURSE WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE BEING 275/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nFOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE FLOSSIE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nTIME FLOSSIE NEARS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE\r\nWILL LIKELY BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE LATEST NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 15.4N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 15.8N 133.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 16.5N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 17.2N 139.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 17.9N 143.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 18.6N 149.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH FLOSSIE DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW SOME INNER CORE\r\nFEATURES TRYING TO FORM.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE THE SAME AS 6 HOURS\r\nAGO...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL STAY 45 KT.  FLOSSIE STILL HAS\r\nSOME CHANCE TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER WHILE IT REMAINS OVER\r\nMARGINALLY WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCOMMENCE IN A DAY OR SO AS FLOSSIE MOVES FARTHER INTO AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT...MARGINALLY WARM SSTS AND LIGHT TO\r\nMODERATE SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nASCAT AND TRMM DATA SHOW THAT FLOSSIE HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. \r\nFLOSSIE SHOULD MOVE MORE TOWARD THE WEST AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO THE\r\nRIDGE STRENGTHENING NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHWARD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT STILL REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 16.1N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.7N 134.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 17.5N 138.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 18.3N 141.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 19.0N 144.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 19.5N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 19.5N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  31/1200Z 20.5N 161.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS WITH A MORE SYMMETRICAL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND BETTER\r\nDEFINED CENTRAL FEATURES ON MICROWAVE IMAGES.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 50 KT...A BLEND OF THE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND AMSU ESTIMATES.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF\r\nFLOSSIE SHOULD COMMENCE TOMORROW AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS...INTO DRIER AIR ALOFT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHEAR.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  ALL\r\nOF THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...NOW SHOW \r\nFLOSSIE DISSIPATING WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY 120H DUE TO\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE CONTINUES MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...NOW 285/17.  THERE\r\nHAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING WITH A FIRM RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TO THE\r\nWEST IN 24-48H AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT.  THE LATEST\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...BUT IS NOW TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nAROUND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THUS...NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.5N 134.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 17.1N 136.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 17.9N 140.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 18.6N 143.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 19.1N 146.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 19.5N 152.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 19.5N 158.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 26 2013\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF FLOSSIE SINCE THE\r\nLAST ADVISORY. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN STILL CONSISTS OF A CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST AND BROKEN CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 50 KT. THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM IS OVER 26C WATERS AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER\r\nEVEN COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE LESS\r\nFAVORABLE OCEANIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE FLOSSIE TO HOLD STEADY IN\r\nSTRENGTH OR WEAKEN. EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE\r\nALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE LATER IN THE FORECAST...\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFLOSSIE REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...WITH THE\r\nLATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 285/16. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nBRINGS THE WEAKENING STORM NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 17.0N 135.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 17.6N 138.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 18.4N 141.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 19.0N 144.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 19.5N 147.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 19.8N 153.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 20.0N 160.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013\r\n \r\nFLOSSIE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL EYE A LITTLE BEFORE\r\n0600 UTC...AND GLIMPSES OF THAT FEATURE HAVE BECOME APPARENT IN\r\nRECENT GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 3.5/55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION\r\nSINCE THEN...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 60 KT. FLOSSIE HAS\r\nCROSSED THE 26C ISOTHERM AND IS HEADED FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THESE COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO HOLD STEADY IN STRENGTH OR BEGIN TO\r\nWEAKEN.  EVEN THOUGH THE WATER TEMPERATURES INCREASE ALONG THE\r\nEXPECTED TRACK OF FLOSSIE BEGINNING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.\r\nTHE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM REMAINS ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PATH AT\r\nABOUT 17 KT. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER\r\nDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND\r\nLITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. FLOSSIE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...FLOSSIE WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AROUND 1800 UTC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 17.5N 137.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 18.1N 140.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 18.9N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 19.4N 146.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 19.7N 149.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 20.0N 155.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 20.5N 162.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Flossie","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP062013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 27 2013\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FOR CPHC HEADER INFORMATION\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLOSSIE HAS STARTED TO WEAKEN.  THERE\r\nARE NO SIGNS OF THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE THAT WAS APPARENT\r\nEARLIER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED AND BECOME SOMEWHAT\r\nELONGATED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  MARGINAL SSTS...DRY AIR\r\nALOFT...AND INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY KEEP THE\r\nSTORM ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE\r\nNHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES\r\nNEAR THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...285/17.  THE\r\nSTORM SHOULD SLOW A BIT TOMORROW AND TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DUE\r\nTO A RETROGRADING RIDGE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  ALMOST ALL\r\nOF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE SOUTHERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN\r\n60-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  \r\n\r\nFLOSSIE SHOULD BE ACROSS 140W LONGITUDE BY 1800 UTC...SO THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. \r\nPUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP1 AND WMO\r\nHEADER WTPA31 PHFO.  FORECAST DISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER\r\nHFOTCDCP1 AND WMO HEADER WTPA41 PHFO.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 17.8N 139.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 18.4N 141.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 19.1N 145.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 19.4N 148.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 19.6N 151.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 20.2N 157.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 20.6N 164.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-07-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SMALL\r\nAREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE\r\nZONE ABOUT 700 N MI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA QUICKLY BECAME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND\r\nIT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING SET AT 25 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND T1.0 FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS BEING STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY AN ANOMALOUSLY\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO...GIVING THE CYCLONE AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/14 KT.  THE\r\nHIGH IS EXPECTED TO STAY RATHER STRONG FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO AND\r\nTHEN WEAKEN BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS.  THE DEPRESSION IS ALSO FORECAST\r\nTO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD CAUSE IT TO DECELERATE BUT MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY BETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MODEL\r\nIS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE OTHER DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS DURING THE FIRST 4 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE\r\nCYCLONES USUALLY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ESCAPING FROM THE ITCZ...THE\r\nNHC OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF AND IS JUST A LITTLE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE FOR MOST FORECAST TIME\r\nPERIODS.\r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR THE FACT THAT THE DEPRESSION IS STILL EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nITCZ...WHICH OFTEN INHIBITS SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR\r\nIS LIGHT...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 29C...AND THERE IS\r\nPLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.  THE INTENSITY MODELS ALL INDICATE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND IN FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX\r\nIS INDICATING A 1 IN 3 CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WINDS DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST INDICATES STEADY\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH THE SYSTEM HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 12.2N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 12.9N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 13.6N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 14.2N 121.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 14.8N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 15.7N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 16.5N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 17.0N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-07-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....WITH CURVED BANDING FEATURES\r\nBECOMING NOTICEABLY BETTER DEFINED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE\r\nIS 35 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB...AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED AT THIS TIME.  ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH\r\nSUFFICIENTLY WARM WATERS...WEAK SHEAR...AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE\r\nLIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND\r\nSPEED FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN CLOSE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL DSHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 285/13.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING\r\nWESTWARD FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES SHOULD MAINTAIN THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING\r\nMUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nAPPROACHING A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN A DAY OR TWO...SOME DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND NOT FAR FROM THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/2100Z 12.7N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 13.2N 117.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 13.9N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 14.5N 122.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 15.0N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 15.8N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 16.5N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 16.5N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-07-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 30 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW\r\nINCREASED ORGANIZATION OF BOTH THE INNER CORE CONVECTION AND\r\nOUTER CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES. A RECENT AMSU OVERPASS AT\r\n30/2227 UTC INDICATED A LARGE CURVED BAND OF CONVECTION WRAPPING\r\nMORE THAN 70 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB AND ADT...AND A 2124 UTC AMSU\r\nESTIMATE OF 48 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS SYMMETRICAL AND\r\nEXPANDING...WITH A WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAVING BECOME\r\nBECOME ESTABLISHED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REAMINS 285/13 BASED ON VISIBLE AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE FIX DATA.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nTO THE NORTH OF GIL. THIS VERY STABLE STEERING FLOW PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST THEREAFTER. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS\r\nFORECAST BY 24-36 HOURS AS GIL APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY JUST AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A CDO-LIKE\r\nFEATURE DEVELOPING...PLUS THE PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURE NOTED IN\r\nTHE LATEST AMSU MICROWAVE DATA...GIL APPEARS POISED TO STEADILY\r\nINTENSIFY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GIVEN THE CURRENT OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN THAT IS FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP\r\nAND EXPAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE TOO LOW.\r\nREGARDLESS...OF THE DEVELOPMENT RATE...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST MODEST STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS. AFTER A\r\nSHORT LEVELING OFF PERIOD...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND BY 96 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER WATER AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0300Z 13.1N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 13.6N 119.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 14.2N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 14.7N 123.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 15.2N 125.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 15.9N 128.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 16.4N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 16.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-07-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013\r\n \r\nGIL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWING A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AT LEAST 3/4 OF THE\r\nWAY AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T3.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND THE OBJECTIVE UW-CIMSS ADT...WARRANTING AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 45 KT.  NEGLIGIBLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...WARM SSTS...AND\r\nA MOIST ENVIRONMENT FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIL COULD BEGIN\r\nTO INGEST A LITTLE MORE STABLE AIR...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIKELY\r\nBEGIN TO INCREASE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...SHOWING GIL REACHING HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS IN 36 HOURS AND THEN WEAKENING ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13 KT.  STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD\r\nINTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE GIL WESTWARD TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nRIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND GIL\r\nSHOULD RESPOND BY SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM DAY 3 THROUGH 5. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY THE STRONGER GFS SOLUTION\r\nON THE NORTHERN EDGE AND THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nEDGE...AND THE ENTIRE SUITE OF MODELS HAS SHIFTED A BIT TO THE\r\nSOUTH ON THIS CYCLE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ALSO NUDGED\r\nSOUTHWARD...ENDING UP CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 13.3N 118.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 13.8N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 14.4N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 14.8N 125.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 15.2N 127.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 15.7N 130.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 16.0N 133.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 16.0N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-07-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 31 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER\r\nORGANIZED...WITH A DISTINCT AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND A\r\nFEW HOOKING BANDS.  MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN OR VERY NEAR THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A\r\nBLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nYIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS\r\nWARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GIL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN\r\nA DAY OR SO. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FORECAST AN\r\nINCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OR NEAR THE CYCLONE\r\nDURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN...IN\r\nCOMBINATION WITH COOLER WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING.      \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE BEST\r\nESTIMATE IS 285/12. GIL IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW\r\nSOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. BOTH THE\r\nGFS AND THE ECMWF MODELS DEVELOP A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS WOULD OFTEN IMPLY A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK. HOWEVER...THESE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED AND A WEAKENED LOWER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...\r\nWHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHWARD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST KEEPS GIL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH IS IN FACT\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE WESTWARD MOTION OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL VORTEX IMPLIED BY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 13.6N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 14.1N 121.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 14.6N 124.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 15.0N 125.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 15.3N 127.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 15.8N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 16.0N 134.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 16.0N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL A RAGGED EYE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...CDO. IN ADDITION...THERE\r\nARE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES WRAPPING AROUND THE CDO. ON\r\nTHIS BASIS...GIL HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS IN THIS\r\nADVISORY. GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR GIL TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FORECAST AN INCREASE IN THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES OVER OR NEAR THE CYCLONE DURING THE LATTER\r\nPART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS PATTERN...IN COMBINATION WITH\r\nCOOLER WATERS...SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING BEYOND 36 OR 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nGIL HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. GIL CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST\r\nTO PERSIST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GIL ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...BOTH THE GFS AND\r\nTHE ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL BECOME VERTICALLY DECOUPLED\r\nAND A WEAKENED LOWER-LEVEL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SOLUTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TURNING GIL MORE TO\r\nTHE WEST BEYOND 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nA RECENT ASCAT-B PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND RADII\r\nASSOCIATED WITH GIL WHICH IN FACT IS A SMALL HURRICANE.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 13.9N 120.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 14.3N 122.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 15.0N 126.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 15.3N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 15.5N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 15.5N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 31 2013\r\n\r\nGIL HAS BEEN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING FOR THE PAST 24-30 HR.  A SMALL\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED WITH EYEWALL CLOUD TOPS COLDER\r\nTHAN -80C...AND THERE ARE RAGGED OUTER BANDS NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CDO.  HOWEVER...THE EYE SEEN PREVIOUSLY HAS DISAPPEARED...\r\nSUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE INTENSIFICATION RATE HAS\r\nSLOWED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65\r\nKT FROM SAB.  BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n70 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10.  GIL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY\r\nTHE FLOW SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP GIL ON A GENERAL WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRACK.  AFTER THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nMODELS SHOW A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF 20N NEAR 140W THAT\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE GIL TO SLOW ITS FORWARD\r\nMOTION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS.  THE FIRST IS\r\nTHAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE GRADIENT.  A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE\r\nGFS...WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO STRONGER\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER 24-48 HR.  A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION...\r\nSIMILAR TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...WOULD KEEP GIL OVER\r\nWARMER WATER AND IN A LESS HOSTILE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE SECOND\r\nFACTOR IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nOVER OR NOT...WITH THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWING A DECREASED CHANCE OF CONTINUED RAPID STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...\r\nEXCEPT AT 24 HR WHEN THE FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY IS A LITTLE ABOVE\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT GIL CONTINUES TO\r\nRAPIDLY INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR AND GETS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 14.2N 121.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 14.6N 123.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 14.9N 125.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 15.2N 127.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 15.4N 128.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 15.5N 132.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 15.5N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT GIL IS NO LONGER RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING.  THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CANOPY HAS BECOME QUITE COMPACT WITH NO INDICATION OF AN\r\nEYE...AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE MORE OR LESS DISSIPATED. \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AT T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND T4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10 KT DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A\r\nSTRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE US/MEXICAN BORDER WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC.  GIL WILL BE REACHING A BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND SHOULD HAVE A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION\r\nBETWEEN DAYS 3 AND 5.  IT SEEMS THAT GIL HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO FREE\r\nITSELF FROM THE ITCZ...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE FROM\r\nGAINING MUCH LATITUDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED A BIT MORE TO THE SOUTH MAINLY BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH RAPID INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED...GIL\r\nSTILL HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SOME MORE.  DEEP-LAYER\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS...AND THE\r\nMORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER SSTS. \r\nDESPITE THIS ENVIRONMENT...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE LIMITS ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING WITHIN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE BIGGEST INHIBITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE INCREASINGLY\r\nSTABLE AIR AROUND THE CYCLONE AND A LESS FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE TOP END OR A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT THEN FOLLOWS A\r\nWEAKENING RATE SIMILAR TO SHIPS...LGEM...AND THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 14.3N 122.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 14.6N 124.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 14.9N 126.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 15.3N 130.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 15.3N 133.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 15.1N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 15.0N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 01 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS IT WAS 12 OR 18 HOURS\r\nAGO...AND THE RAGGED EYE THAT WAS BRIEFLY OBSERVED YESTERDAY IS NO\r\nLONGER APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY. OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAINED UNCHANGED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70\r\nKNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES FOR INTENSIFICATION\r\nAPPEAR TO BE DIMINISHING...GIVEN THE PREVAILING LOW SHEAR...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST SINCE\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH GIL.\r\nTHIS IS SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF\r\nTHE HWRF MODEL THAT DELAYS THE WEAKENING BY A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nGIL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS...EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT\r\nNOW APPEARS THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD...AND THE\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST WILL NOT AFFECT THE\r\nMOTION OF GIL TOO MUCH. THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK\r\nMODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS THAT BOTH DEPICT\r\nA WESTWARD-MOVING CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THOSE GLOBAL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 14.5N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 14.7N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 14.9N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 15.0N 129.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 15.2N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 15.0N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 15.0N 137.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 15.0N 141.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013\r\n \r\nI WAS TEMPTED TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 75 KNOTS GIVEN THAT THE\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 4.5 ON THE DVORAK\r\nSCALE AT 1800 UTC. SINCE THAT TIME...THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER HAS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 70 KNOTS. \r\n\r\nGIL HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THIS MOTION\r\nIS NOW MORE TOWARD THE WEST THAN EARLIER AND IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE\r\nEXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS NOW BUILD THE\r\nRIDGE EVEN FATHER WEST AND STRONGER THAN BEFORE...KEEPING GIL ON A\r\nSTRAIGHT WESTWARD PATH FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. SOME OF THE MODELS\r\nEVEN HINT AT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ON THIS BASIS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST MAINTAINS GIL ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SHOW SOME INCREASE IN THE EYE OR CENTER DIAMETER.\r\nTHIS PERHAPS COULD LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INNER CORE. THE\r\nCHANGE FOR A WESTWARD TRACK IN THE FORECAST INDICATE THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL REMAIN OVER WARMER WATERS LONGER...AND THE WEAKENING\r\nPROCESS SHOULD BE MORE GRADUAL.  \r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 14.3N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 14.5N 128.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 14.5N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 14.5N 132.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 14.5N 134.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 14.5N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 01 2013\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER\r\nOF GIL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER\r\nTHAN -80C.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS A\r\nLITTLE RAGGED.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 77 KT FROM SAB.  DUE TO THE RAGGED APPEARANCE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ONLY SLIGHTLY INCREASED TO 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER.  GIL IS\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO\r\nPERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THIS\r\nSHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE.  ONE CHANGE FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST IS TO NOW SHOW A SOUTH OF WEST MOTION BETWEEN\r\nDAYS 4-5...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS...THE UKMET...THE\r\nECMWF...AND THE GFS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CURRENTLY\r\nFORECASTING INTENSITIES 10-20 KT STRONGER AT ALL FORECAST TIMES\r\nTHAN THOSE FROM 6 HR AGO.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A CHANGE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL\r\nNOT TOTALLY FOLLOW THIS CHANGE...BUT IT WILL SHOW MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS\r\nOVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  AFTER THAT...GIL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO APPROACH COOLER SSTS NEAR 140W...WHICH IS FORECAST TO CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  WHILE THE NEW FORECAST INCREASES THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST INTENSITIES BY 5-10 KT...IT LIES WELL BELOW THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 14.4N 126.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 14.5N 127.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 14.7N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 14.7N 132.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 14.5N 135.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 14.5N 138.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 14.0N 142.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013\r\n \r\nGIL HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH THE\r\nCOVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION SHRINKING. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A TONGUE OF DRIER AIR WRAPPING INTO THE EAST SIDE OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION...WHICH IS LIKELY THE CAUSE OF THE DEGRADED\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 75 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES...BUT\r\nTHIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GIL IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN IN SIMILAR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BEYOND A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...SLOW WEAKENING IS PREDICTED WHEN GIL MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SLIGHTLY\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nINTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...A\r\nHEADING A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS ANTICIPATED AS THE RIDGE\r\nEXPANDS SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ONLY SMALL\r\nCHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE LATEST NHC\r\nFORECAST LIES VERY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 14.6N 127.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 14.7N 128.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 14.9N 130.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 15.0N 133.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 14.5N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 14.0N 139.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 14.0N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gil","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND I DO NOT HAVE\r\nA GOOD REASON TO EXPLAIN IT SINCE BOTH SHEAR AND SSTS HAVE BEEN\r\nRULED OUT AS THE CAUSE. THE SHEAR IS LOW ACCORDING TO THE DIAGNOSIS\r\nPROVIDED BY THE SHIPS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND GIL IS MOVING\r\nOVER 27.5 DEGREES CELSIUS WATERS. \r\n\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE DUE TO DVORAK\r\nCONSTRAINTS...BUT GIVEN THE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 65 KNOTS AND THAT IS PROBABLY\r\nGENEROUS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HOSTILE...GIL\r\nIS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL\r\nAPPROACHES COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.    \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES BUT \r\nRECENT SSMI MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT GIL IS RIGHT ON TRACK. THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW...A GENERAL\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF DUE WEST. THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE BECOMES MUCH LARGER\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS...WITH SEVERAL MODELS TAKING GIL TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND OTHER MODELS FORECASTING GIL TO MOVE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. THIS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE TRACK FORECAST HIGHLY\r\nUNCERTAIN.\r\n  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 14.6N 128.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 14.6N 129.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 14.5N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 14.5N 132.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 14.5N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 14.5N 137.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 14.0N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 13.5N 143.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE. GIL CONSISTS OF AN\r\nIRREGULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVOID OF BANDING FEATURES WITH\r\nLIMITED OUTFLOW. SINCE THE SATELLITE INTENISTY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN\r\nGRADUALLY DECREASING...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN\r\nTO 60 KNOTS. GIVEN THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY\r\nHOSTILE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS INDICATED IN THE THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS GIL BEGIN TO\r\nAPPROACH COOLER WATERS AND MORE STABLE AIR.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nEARLIER...BUT WITH THE HELP OF RECENT MICROWAVE DATA...WE HAVE\r\nDETERMINED THAT THE LOW AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS ARE VERTICALLY\r\nDISPLACED...BUT STILL EMBEDDED OR VERY NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION. IN\r\nADDITION...MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY LEAD TO AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 270 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. GIL IS BEING STEERED BY A\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW...AND SINCE THIS FLOW PATTERN IS NOT\r\nFORECAST TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. AS GIL WEAKENS AND BECOMES\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...IT COULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE\r\nWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS INDICATED BY THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF MODEL.\r\n   \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 14.6N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 14.7N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 14.7N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 14.7N 133.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 14.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 13.5N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 02 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT GIL HAS SHEARED APART...WITH THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A DECAYING\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO 20 KT OF\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS ANALYZED BY CIMSS.  AT\r\nTHIS TIME...THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH MAKES THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 55 KT FROM SAB RATHER UNCERTAIN.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS\r\nGENEROUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  GIL IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE STORM.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSOME DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEASTWARD\r\nAND WEAKENS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER GIL GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nFOR 24-36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION.  A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  THE\r\nONE EXCEPTION IS THE GFS...WITH SHOWS GIL SLOWING AND TURNING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AFTER 72 HR DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE TO\r\nITS EAST AND NORTH.  THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND\r\nLIES A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 36 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.  FIRST...WHILE ALL THE\r\nGUIDANCE FORECASTS WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR...THE\r\nSHIPS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE BASED ON LESS SHEAR THAN WHAT IS\r\nCURRENTLY OCCURRING.  THUS...THE SHIPS FORECAST OF KEEPING GIL A\r\nTROPICAL STORM FOR 5 DAYS COULD BE OPTIMISTIC.  SECOND...WHILE THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT BY 72 HR...NONE OF THEM SHOW MUCH\r\nINTENSIFICATION AS A RESULT.  THIRD...SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE DISTURBANCE EAST OF GIL DEVELOPING AND BECOMING THE\r\nMORE DOMINANT SYSTEM IN THE AREA.  FINALLY...THERE IS AN INCREASING\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THIS VERY SMALL CYCLONE MAY NOT SURVIVE TO REACH\r\nTHE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HR...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A SLOWER WEAKENING THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH LGEM THROUGH 48 HR...THEN IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 14.9N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 14.9N 131.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 14.8N 133.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 14.6N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 14.3N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 13.5N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 13.0N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK OVERNIGHT...IT LACKS\r\nBANDING FEATURES AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SHEARING APART. THERE IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT\r\nRANGE FROM 35 TO 65 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 50 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT\r\nGIL FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS ARE\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING BEYOND A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...GIL IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATER AND INTO A DRIER AIRMASS. THEREFORE...SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nPREDICTED THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD.\r\n \r\nGIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD FOR ABOUT ANOTHER DAY...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC. THERE REMAINS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE...DUE IN PART TO DIFFERENCES IN\r\nHOW GIL INTERACTS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ITS EAST. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST LIES MORE OR LESS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 14.9N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 15.0N 132.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 14.8N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 14.5N 135.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 14.0N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 13.3N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 13.0N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 13.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH SEVERAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE OCCURED NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF GIL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE STRUCTURE IS STILL\r\nBEING DISTRUPTED BY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS AVERAGE TO ABOUT 50 KT...AND GIVEN\r\nTHAT THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT AT THAT VALUE. ALL OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE THAT GIL WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST. AFTER THAT TIME...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT GIL\r\nWILL QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW...WHILE THE STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT SOME RESTRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY DUE TO\r\nDECREASING SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO\r\nPOSSIBILITIES AND IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nGIL HAS BEEN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS FORECAST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLOENN TO TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED AS GIL\r\nWEAKENS AND IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AND THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS CENTERED AROUND THE PAST COUPLE NHC FORECASTS. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST IS THEREFORE MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 15.0N 132.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 15.0N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 14.8N 135.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 14.4N 136.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 14.0N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 13.2N 140.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 13.0N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 13.0N 147.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO BURST INTERMITTENTLY NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF GIL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  DVORAK CI ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 35 TO 65 KT...A DISCREPANCY THAT CAN BE EXPLAINED IN\r\nPART BY THE PULSATING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.  THE INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN HELD AT 50 KT AS A CONSERVATIVE COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE\r\nESTIMATES...HOWEVER BASED ON LONG-TERM TRENDS...THIS MAY BE\r\nGENEROUS.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS NOT COME INTO BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT.  THE STATISTICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE INTENSITY WILL\r\nNOT CHANGE MUCH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THAT\r\nSTRENGTHENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THAT.  THE UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR IS SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nANALYSIS INDICATES...WHICH MAY EXPLAIN WHY THE STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN\r\nCHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY...AND LEANS TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS FORECAST OF GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nGIL CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A STEADY WESTWARD HEADING AT 11 KT...\r\nSTEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OVER\r\nTHE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS ONCE AGAIN A\r\nLARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  IN FACT...THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF MODEL DAY 5 FORECAST POSITIONS ARE NEARLY 600 MILES\r\nAPART.  THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE MODELS SEEMS TO BE THE\r\nDEPTH OF THE CIRCULATION. THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MUCH SHALLOWER\r\nSYSTEM THAT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES...WHILE\r\nTHE GFS FORECASTS A DEEPER CYCLONE THAT SLOWS AND TURNS TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS...\r\nAND CALLS FOR WESTWARD MOTION AFTER DAY 3...IN LINE WITH THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOR A WEAKER CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 15.3N 133.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 15.3N 134.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 14.8N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 14.4N 137.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 13.9N 139.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 13.0N 142.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 13.0N 145.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 13.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GIL HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A SMALL CLUSTER NEAR THE\r\nCENTER AND IN SMALL BANDS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. \r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 45 KT...AND DATA FROM THE INDIAN OSCAT SCATTEROMETER\r\nSUGGESTS THIS COULD BE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED AND IS NOW 275/8.  GIL IS BEING\r\nSTEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT\r\nTHESE FEATURES WILL BUILD TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT\r\n48 TO 72 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST.  AFTER THAT...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN\r\nTURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS MAY BE DUE IN PART TO THIS\r\nMODEL MAINTAINING A STRONGER CYCLONE AND IN PART TO THE MODEL\r\nFORECAST FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...CURRENTLY ABOUT 575 N MI\r\nEAST-SOUTHEAST OF GIL.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST RELIES ON THE OTHER\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOW A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AFTER 72 HR.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES CLOSE\r\nTO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.\r\n\r\nGIL IS ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA OF VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nJUST TO ITS NORTH.  HOWEVER...AS THE STORM TURNS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nIT SHOULD MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. \r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...\r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS\r\nSUGGESTING THAT GIL COULD INGEST DRIER AIR.  ON THE OTHER HAND...\r\nTHE STATISTICAL SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT BY FORECASTING RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS AND FORECASTS A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n5 DAYS...AND IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT THAT GIL COULD DISSIPATE BEFORE\r\nTHAT TIME.  THE NEW FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 15.3N 134.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 15.0N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 14.4N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 13.9N 138.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 13.4N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 13.0N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 13.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 13.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gil","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n \r\nGIL HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT\r\nSEVEN HOURS NOW.  A RECENT ASCAT PASS JUST CLIPPED THE EASTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION...AND WHILE IT DID NOT CAPTURE WHERE THE\r\nSTRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE...IT SHOWED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nBECOMING INCREASINGLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.  THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING LOWERED TO 35 KT MAINLY BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  DUE TO\r\nSTABLE AIR...20 KT OF SHEAR...AND BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...\r\nGIL MAY NOT SURVIVE MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND IF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...GIL COULD BE DECLARED A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AS SOON AS LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GIL HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...AND A RELATIVELY MINOR RELOCATION WAS\r\nREQUIRED ON THIS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 250/8 KT.\r\nWITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION...THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE\r\nSHALLOW AND IS BEING STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nCENTERED WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH\r\nON THIS CYCLE WITH MOST OF THE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS HAVING\r\nTO DO WITH THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE ECMWF IS THE MAIN OUTLIER...\r\nSHOWING GIL BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH IN 3-4 DAYS AND MOVING MUCH\r\nMORE QUICKLY TO THE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT\r\nNEARLY AS FAST AS THE ECMWF...BUT IT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCE SINCE GIL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 14.6N 135.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 14.2N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 13.7N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 13.1N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 12.6N 141.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 12.0N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 11.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0600Z 11.5N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n\r\nA SMALL BAND OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF GIL.  OTHERWISE...THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nMOSTLY COMPRISED OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND SOME STABLE STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUDS.  SATELLTE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING...AND\r\nSUPPORT MAKING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 30 KT.  THERE APPEARS TO BE\r\nENOUGH STABLE AIR AND SHEAR NEAR GIL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW DURING THAT\r\nTIME.  WHILE THE LGEM/SHIPS/GFDL ARE SHOWING THE CYCLONE EVENTUALLY\r\nRESTRENGTHENING IN A FEW DAYS DUE TO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nTHERE PROBABLY WILL NOT BE MUCH LEFT OF THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF\r\nGIL BY THAT TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR THE WEAKER INITIAL WINDS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...250/8.  \r\nA LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER\r\nGIL ON THIS GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nFLATTEN OUT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...PERHAPS CAUSING A MORE WESTWARD\r\nTURN.  THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND ONLY A SMALL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION AT 96 AND 120H.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 14.3N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 13.9N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 13.4N 138.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 12.9N 139.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 12.4N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 12.0N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 12.0N 148.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1200Z 12.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":22,"Date":"2013-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SHOW THE CENTER OF GIL MOSTLY EXPOSED ON THE\r\nNORTHEAST SIDE OF A WEAKENING AREA OF CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  GIL WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY\r\nOR SO DUE TO STABLE AIR NEAR THE CENTER AND PERSISTENT SHEAR. \r\nTHERE REMAINS A REMOTE CHANCE THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN A\r\nFEW DAYS WHEN IT MOVES INTO A MORE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT...BUT IT\r\nIS DOUBTFUL THE SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT THAT LONG.  THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n\r\nA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH GIL FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS BENEATH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE\r\nREMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY TURN WESTWARD BEYOND THAT TIME\r\nWHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.  ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES\r\nWERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST TRACK\r\nCONSENSUS GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 14.2N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 13.8N 137.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 13.2N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 12.7N 140.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 12.4N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 12.3N 145.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 12.4N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1800Z 12.5N 153.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":23,"Date":"2013-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n\r\nGIL IS MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS...FOR NOW.  A SMALL BURST\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nDATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT OVERPASS AND A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THAT\r\nTIME FRAME.  LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD\r\nBECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR REINTENSIFICATION SO THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT GIL COULD MAKE A COMEBACK IN SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nHOWEVER...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS SMALL SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT\r\nTHAT LONG.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED AND\r\nLIES BETWEEN THE HWRF AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...255/7...CONTINUES.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF GIL...OR ITS REMNANT\r\nLOW...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN A COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS NOT\r\nFAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE\r\nECMWF MODEL PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 14.0N 137.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 13.6N 138.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 13.0N 139.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 12.6N 141.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 12.4N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 12.5N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 12.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/0000Z 12.5N 153.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":24,"Date":"2013-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n\r\nLIMITED AND WEAK CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE IN THE VICINITY OF AN\r\nOBSCURRED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO\r\nINGEST STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE...AND HAS BECOME\r\nADVERSELY AFFECTED BY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM NEARBY TROPICAL\r\nSTORM HENRIETTE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON\r\nRECENT DVORAK INTENSITY TRENDS AND THE DEGRADED SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION. IN ADDITION...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE\r\nMARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD HELP GIL TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nLATER TODAY.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/06 KT. GIL HAS BEEN INFLUENCED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL\r\nSTORM HENRIETTE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY WHILE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST UNDER THE CONTINUED\r\nINFLUENCE OF HENRIETTE AND THE TRADE WINDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 13.9N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 13.5N 138.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 13.1N 140.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 12.8N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 12.6N 143.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 12.7N 147.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 12.7N 150.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":25,"Date":"2013-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n \r\nGIL HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 6-12\r\nHOURS TO RESET THE REMNANT LOW CLOCK BACK TO ZERO...AND A PAIR OF\r\nASCAT PASSES AROUND 07Z SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM STILL HAS WINDS OF\r\n25-30 KT.  THE ASCAT PASSES WERE ALSO HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING THE\r\nCENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION...NOW ESTIMATED AT 250/7...AND\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENTAL THERMODYNAMICS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO\r\nSTRENGTHENING...EASTERLY SHEAR IS NOT PROHIBITIVE AND THE\r\nUNDERLYING SSTS OF 27C COULD SUPPORT INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OVER\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A\r\nROUGHLY STEADY STATE FOR GIL DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE \r\nSHIPS AND LGEM SHOW THE SYSTEM ULTIMATELY REGAINING TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS.  WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACTIVE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nDELAYS DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW UNTIL TOMORROW. \r\n\r\nTHE LATEST TRACK FORECAST ASSUMES A LITTLE MORE INTERACTION WITH A\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH AFTER ABOUT 36 HOURS...AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE\r\nCURRENT DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  BASED ON THE CURRENT PROJECTION...\r\nGIL WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF\r\nRESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 06/09Z ADVISORY PACKAGE.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 13.4N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 13.0N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 12.6N 140.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 12.5N 142.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 12.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 13.0N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 13.5N 151.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1200Z 14.0N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":26,"Date":"2013-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTING FOR THE PAST 10\r\nHOURS OR SO NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GIL. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ASSUMING\r\nTHAT THE WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER DUE TO THE\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS GIL CHANGING\r\nLITTLE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHILE IT REMAINS OVER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 27C...AND WITHIN MODERATE\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. GIL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS...THE SAME AS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS ON TRACK...AND IS MOVING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO\r\nOCCUR BY LATE TUESDAY WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN LOW TO\r\nMID-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...GIL WILL\r\nMOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF\r\nRESPONSIBILITY FOR THE 06/09Z ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 13.2N 139.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 12.9N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 12.6N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 12.6N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 12.8N 144.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 13.5N 147.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1800Z 14.0N 155.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Gil","Adv":27,"Date":"2013-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP072013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072013\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECAME PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nMAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSATING...SOME BANDING\r\nFEATURES HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nA DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW\r\nTHE SYSTEM DISSIPATING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  INDEED...THE\r\nSTATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM MODEL SHOWS GIL REGAINING TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  ALTHOUGH THIS IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBLE SCENARIO...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THAT AND MERELY SHOWS GIL\r\nMAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST\r\nHWRF MODEL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nLATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...AND A FIX FROM AN\r\nEARLIER TRMM IMAGE...INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS TURNING TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/8.  A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF GIL SHOULD BE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...AND NOT AS FAST AS THE ECMWF\r\nSOLUTION.\r\n\r\nGIL HAS JUST MOVED WEST OF 140W LONGITUDE...SO THE NEXT ADVISORY\r\nWILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE\r\nPUBLIC ADVISORIES ON GIL CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO\r\nAND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.  FUTURE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS ON GIL CAN\r\nBE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA42 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCDCP2.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 13.4N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 13.2N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 13.1N 142.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 13.3N 143.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 13.6N 145.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 14.5N 148.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 14.5N 152.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 14.5N 155.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A\r\nLOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN TRACKED FOR SEVERAL DAYS HAS\r\nCONSOLIDATED NEAR A LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION\r\nIS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION ON SATELLITE...THE\r\nLOW CAN BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS WITH AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATERS BUT THE\r\nSHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONSEQUENTLY\r\nONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED. \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270 DEGRES AT 8 KNOTS.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS PATTERN\r\nWOULD SUGGEST A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nWITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF\r\nSOLUTION...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS.     \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 13.0N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 13.0N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 13.0N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 13.0N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 14.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 16.0N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 17.5N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE WINDS REMAIN AT 25 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL\r\nPARTIALLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nARE ONLY MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nBY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS TRAPPED SOUTH OF A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION\r\nMOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AND A GRADUAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN. THE\r\nGFS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION FARTHER TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS\r\nTHE CYCLONE BASICALLY MOVING WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 12.9N 123.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 12.7N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 12.5N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 12.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 13.0N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 14.5N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 16.5N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 18.0N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 03 2013\r\n \r\nSTRONG CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS.  LIGHT-TO-MODERATE\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR...PARTIALLY FROM OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM\r\nGIL...APPEARS TO BE CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN TO BE LOPSIDED\r\nON THE SOUTH SIDE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE RISEN TO 30 AND 35\r\nKT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 30 KT.  \r\n\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD\r\nTO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH\r\nWOULD LIKELY INDUCE A MORE CONDUCIVE LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  PERHAPS REFLECTING THIS SHEAR FORECAST...THE BULK OF\r\nTHE MOST RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THE DEPRESSION BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE IN 48-72H WHILE THE WATERS REMAIN WARM.  GIVEN THE\r\nSOMEWHAT INEXPLICABLE STRUGGLES OF GIL IN THIS SAME AREA...I AM NOT\r\nABOUT TO BITE OFF ON THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE YET...BUT\r\nWILL INCREASE THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS\r\nADJUSTED HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STILL ABOUT 10 KT\r\nLOWER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS BEYOND 48H...AND ON THE LOW END\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/9.  A WESTWARD MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ERODE\r\nTHE WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE AFTER THE WEEKEND...CAUSING THE\r\nSYSTEM TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT\r\nOF UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THIS TURN WILL OCCUR...WHICH CAUSES THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE TO FAN OUT NOTICEABLY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THEN IS NUDGED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NEW\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 12.7N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 12.5N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 12.5N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 12.6N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 13.1N 130.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 14.5N 133.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 16.2N 137.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 17.5N 141.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR\r\nIS KEEPING WHAT LIMITED CONVECTION THERE IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF THE CENTER...AND A 0542 UTC AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED VERY LITTLE\r\nIN THE WAY OF BANDING FEATURES. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM SAB.\r\nGIVEN THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT BASED PRIMARILY ON\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES. A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SHORT-TERM TRACK SCENARIO...BUT THEN DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nAFTER THAT DUE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES\r\nMORE WESTWARD AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...WHEREAS THE\r\nGFS AND HWRF ARE FORECASTING A STRONGER AND DEEPER STORM THAT MOVES\r\nPOLEWARD OUT OF THE ITCZ. GIVEN THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL AND\r\nOCEANIC CONDITIONS AFTER 18-24 HOURS THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE\r\nTO INTENSIFY POSSIBLY TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE...AND HWRF\r\nSOLUTIONS...AND LIES NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.\r\n\r\nTHE MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING\r\nTHIS SYSTEM FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS\r\nTHAN 5 KT BY 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES UNDER A RIDGE AXIS THAT\r\nLIES ALONG 130W LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE 28C AND WARMER AND THE MIDDLE\r\nTROPOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BE MOIST WITH HUMIDITY VALUES IN EXCESS\r\nOF 70 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nSUB-26C SSTS BY 96 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE IS STILL FORECASTING THE DEPRESSION TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nBY 48 HOURS...WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MOIST EQUATORIAL INFLOW PATTERN.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 12.8N 125.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 12.8N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 12.9N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 13.6N 131.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 14.9N 134.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 16.1N 138.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 17.3N 142.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n \r\nOVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE\r\nIS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS. \r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ALL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM\r\nINTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE ESTIMATES\r\nRANGING FROM 35 KT FROM SAB...53 KT FROM UW/CIMSS ADT...TO\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT CENTER\r\nLOCATION AND OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  NORTHEASTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nHENRIETTE TO AT LEAST GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  HENRIETTE SHOULD BE TO CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE \r\nREACHING COOLER WATERS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT 8 KT AND THIS\r\nMOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nPACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE.  IN RESPONSE...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THE 36 HOUR\r\nTIME PERIOD...BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT TIME.  THE GFS IS\r\nALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AS IT TAKES A STRONGER\r\nAND MORE VERTICALLY DEEP CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD.  THE REMAINDER OF \r\nMODELS GENERALLY KEEP A SOMEWHAT WEAKER CYCLONE MOVING WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD.  THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST IS BETWEEN\r\nTHESE SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 12.9N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 12.9N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 12.9N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 13.3N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 14.1N 131.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 15.7N 135.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 17.2N 142.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE CENTER OF HENRIETTE IS LOCATED A BIT SOUTH OF THE EARLIER\r\nESTIMATES.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THIS IS DUE\r\nTO A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER OR IF THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING.  THE SMALL\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE NOW HAS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAPS\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT THERE IS\r\nSTILL A LACK OF CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PARTS\r\nOF THE STORM...DUE TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A\r\nMORE CONSERVATIVE 40 KT.  THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD\r\nALLOW FOR STRENGTHENING.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS\r\nHENRIETTE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE\r\nUPDATED NHC FORECAST.  HENRIETEE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 4 DAYS...AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED LATE IN\r\nTHE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7 KT.\r\nHENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS AS A RIDGE REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE\r\nPACIFIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE\r\nTO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS\r\nLESSENED THIS CYCLE...WITH THE 1200 UTC GFS SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND\r\nCLOSER TO REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE\r\nSOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/2100Z 12.2N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 12.2N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 12.5N 129.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 13.1N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 13.9N 132.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 16.0N 139.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 16.5N 143.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 04 2013\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED RECENTLY...VISIBLE AND\r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGES INDICATE THAT BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nBECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN DOES STILL SHOW SIGNS OF EASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE\r\nMAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 45 KT...WHICH IS ON THE\r\nLOW END OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO LESSEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED TO\r\nBEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER WATERS\r\nCOOLER THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT ON\r\nTHE LOW SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MOVING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST FOR\r\nMUCH OF THE DAY...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/7\r\nKT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON MONDAY\r\nWHEN THE STORM APPROACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...\r\nINDUCED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF CALIFORNIA. A\r\nTURN BACK TO THE WEST IS PREDICTED BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS THE WEAKENING CYCLONE BECOMES MORE INFLUENCED BY A LOW-\r\nTO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0300Z 12.0N 127.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 12.2N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 12.8N 130.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 13.5N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 14.2N 133.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 15.5N 136.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 16.0N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF\r\nHENRIETTE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ALSO REMAIN UNCHANGED. THE INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 45\r\nKT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A 0522Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS THAT SHOWED\r\n40-KT WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THE 34-KT\r\nWIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE ASCAT WIND DATA.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL WOBBLES IN THE MOTION OF HENRIETTE DURING\r\nTHE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE SETTLED DOWN ON\r\nA WESTWARD COURSE OF 275/06 BASED ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES.\r\nHENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY\r\nAS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nBETWEEN 135W-140W LONGITUDE. AS THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nINDUCING THIS WEAKNESS LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY 72 HOURS...\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST ON DAYS 3-5 AS\r\nTHE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE MADE A NOTICEABLE\r\nSHIFT TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nWAS ALSO SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND LIES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE APPEARS POISED TO UNDERGO AT LEAST A TYPICAL RATE OF\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 175 NMI TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN STEADILY\r\nWEAKENING AND MOVING CLOSER TO HENRIETTE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.\r\nTHAT SYSTEM SHOULD MORPH INTO AN OUTER RAIN BAND IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...ALLOWING THE PREVIOUSLY DIVERTED EQUATORIAL INFLOW TO\r\nBE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER OF HENRIETTE. THIS INFLOW OF WARM UNSTABLE\r\nAIR...COUPLED WITH 28C SSTS...ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...SHOULD INITIATE THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS LATER\r\nTODAY. IN FACT...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT TO\r\nOCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWAS INCREASED AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL ICON...BUT IS\r\nBELOW THE HWRF MODEL...WHICH BRINGS HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST 90 KT IN\r\n48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 12.1N 127.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 12.5N 128.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 13.3N 130.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 14.3N 132.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 15.1N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 17.0N 141.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 17.5N 145.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED THIS MORNING.  A BAND OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NOW WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION AND BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT...A CONSENSUS\r\nOF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270/4 KT.  THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS DEEPENING WELL WEST OF THE\r\nCOAST OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO\r\nTURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY AND REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL\r\nHEADING FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS\r\nSHIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND NOW LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE TROUGH IS FORECAST\r\nTO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD ONCE AGAIN.  AS A\r\nRESULT...HENRIETTE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AND STAY ON THAT GENERAL\r\nHEADING DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF HENRIETTE APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nTHAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CYCLONE SHOULD DECREASE AS HENRIETTE\r\nMOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. DURING THAT TIME...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE OVER WARM WATERS...SO STEADY STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO CROSS\r\nA TONGUE OF COOLER WATERS...WHICH IS LIKELY TO HALT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT\r\nWHEN THE CYCLONE TURN WESTWARD IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND MOVES ALONG\r\nTHE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM.  THE COOLER WATERS AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IF\r\nHENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK IT COULD WEAKEN MUCH\r\nFASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.  CONVERSELY...IF HENRIETTE IS SOUTH OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK... THE RATE OF WEAKENING COULD BE SLOWER.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 12.1N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 12.6N 129.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 13.6N 130.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 14.7N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 15.6N 134.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 16.9N 137.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 17.0N 146.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON.  \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE...\r\nWITH RECENT HINTS OF AN EYE.  AN EARLIER 1414 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGE REVEALED A MID-LEVEL EYE WITH A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nRING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT.  LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS AHEAD OF\r\nHENRIETTE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY.  IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...HENRIETTE\r\nWILL BE CROSSING A TONGUE OF COOLER SSTS THAT WILL LIKELY SLOW OR\r\nHALT THE STRENGTHENING.  LATER IN THE PERIOD... COOLER WATERS AND A\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  IF\r\nHENRIETTE MOVES NORTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IT WOULD\r\nENCOUNTER MUCH COOLER SSTS AND LIKELY WEAKEN FASTER THAN INDICATED\r\nBELOW.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE HAS MADE ITS MUCH ANTICIPATED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. IT\r\nHAS ALSO GAINED SOME FORWARD SPEED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8\r\nKT.  HENRIETTE SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD ONCE\r\nAGAIN TO BE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS PRODUCING THE WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD\r\nONCE AGAIN.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE\r\nWEST DURING THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME PERIOD.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE MORE QUICKLY\r\nWESTWARD IN THE BRISK LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nPACIFIC. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 12.8N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 13.6N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 14.8N 131.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 16.7N 134.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 17.5N 138.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 17.3N 142.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henriette","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 05 2013\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS EVENING WITH A\r\nCENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE GROWING NEAR THE CENTER.  MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL FEATURES CONTINUE TO BECOME BETTER\r\nDEFINED...WITH WHAT RESEMBLES AN EYEWALL PRESENT ON THE LATEST\r\nPASSES.  DUE TO THE INCREASE IN INNER-CORE ORGANIZATION...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT.  FURTHER STRENGTHENING SEEMS\r\nLIKELY WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER IN THE PATH OF THE STORM FOR\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW...\r\nHENRIETTE WILL BE HEADING INTO MORE STABLE AIR AND ACROSS COOLER\r\nWATERS...WHICH SHOULD START A WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...RELYING ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nTREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE LATEST MICROWAVE FIXES SHOW THAT HENRIETTE IS MOVING FASTER AND\r\nHAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...305/10. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE AFTER THAT TIME...CAUSING\r\nTHE STORM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN A FEW DAYS.  THIS SCENARIO\r\nIS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS\r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE LATEST NHC FORECAST LIES CLOSE\r\nTO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 13.5N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 14.4N 131.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 15.6N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 16.6N 134.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 17.3N 136.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 17.9N 139.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 17.1N 144.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 17.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER A BRIEF CONVECTIVE RESPITE...A PRONOUNCED CDO FEATURE WITH\r\nCLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -80C HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER DURING THE\r\nPAST 4 HOURS. VARIOUS MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS\r\nINDICATE THAT A WELL-DEFINED AND VERTICALLY ALIGNED EYE HAS\r\nDEVELOPED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WAS\r\nEVEN BRIEFLY EVIDENT IN NIGHT TIME VISIBLE IMAGERY AROUND 0500 UTC.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.4/75 KT FROM UW-CIMSS ADT...\r\nAND T4.0.65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THEREFORE...HENRIETTE IS\r\nUPGRADED TO A 65-KT HURRICANE...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES HENRIETTE HAS WOBBLED TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS IS\r\nBELIEVED TO BE A TEMPORARY MOTION DUE TO RE-ORGANIZATION OF THE\r\nINNER CORE AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE EYE....AND HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO RESUME A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE MID-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG\r\n136-137W LONGITUDE. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD\r\nBACK WESTWARD AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INDUCING THE WEAKNESS LIFTS\r\nOUT TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD...HENRIETTE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ON DAYS 4/5.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTO OCCUR FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY GIVEN\r\nTHE VERY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS AND IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE RELIABLE MODEL GUIDANCE BRINGS\r\nHENRIETTE MUCH ABOVE 75 KT...INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\nTHESE LOWER INTENSITY VALUES MAY BE THE RESULT OF THOSE MODELS\r\nUSING SST VALUES THAT ARE ABOUT 0.5C LOWER THAN WHAT IS NOTED IN\r\nTHE MOST RECENT SST ANALYSES. GIVEN THE 20-25 NMI DIAMETER EYE\r\nNOTED IN A RECENT 0555Z AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nFORECAST TO INCREASE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BY 36 HOURS...\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS HENRIETTE MOVES OVER OR\r\nNEAR SUB-26C SSTS AND INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE WEAKENING MIGHT NOT OCCUR AS QUICKLY OR AS MUCH AS\r\nFORECAST DUE TO THE VERY LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nEXIST THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND\r\nLGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 13.8N 130.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 14.7N 132.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 15.8N 133.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 16.7N 135.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 17.3N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 17.8N 141.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 17.0N 145.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 16.8N 150.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS\r\nMORNING.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A WELL-DEFINED \r\nEYE...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN INTERMITTENTLY IN NIGHT TIME \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY \r\nESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB...77 KT FROM TAFB...AND 82 KT FROM\r\nUW/CIMSS ADT.  BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY \r\nIS RAISED TO 70 KT. \r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.  SMOOTHING THROUGH THE WOBBLES...THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 305/9 KT.  HENRIETTE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL HEADING AND SPEED FOR THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS AS IT MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nBETWEEN 135W AND 140W LONGITUDE.  IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE WHICH \r\nWILL CAUSE HENRIETTE TO TURN WESTWARD...AND POSSIBLY WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 72 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR SOME DIFFERENCES IN\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE SPREAD\r\nBECOMES LARGER WITH THE MODELS THAT WEAKEN HENRIETTE SOONER SHOWING\r\nA MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  THE NHC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS AND IN A MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS CALLS\r\nFOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF 25 TO 26 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE REMAINDER\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 14.2N 131.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 15.1N 132.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 16.0N 134.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 16.9N 136.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 17.3N 138.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 17.3N 142.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 16.8N 146.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 16.5N 151.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013\r\n \r\nRECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE ORGANIZATION\r\nOF THE SMALL HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A SMALL\r\nEYE BECOMING EVIDENT.  A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE\r\nPAST 12 HOURS OR SO HAVE CLEARLY SHOWN A CONTRACTING EYE.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KT...WHICH IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT\r\nAND 85 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...SLIGHTLY\r\nCOOLER SSTS AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE DURING THE FIRST 12 TO 24 HOURS...\r\nTHEN LIES BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nTHERAFTER.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY NORTHWESTWARD HEADING AT\r\nABOUT 9 KT TODAY.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEN TURN WESTWARD AS A\r\nRIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nAGAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 TO 72 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR\r\nSOME FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES.  THE NHC TRACK DURING THIS TIME\r\nSPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER ECMWF\r\nAND LIES NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5 SHIFTED SOUTHWARD THIS CYCLE AND\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION...BUT IT\r\nREMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AT THOSE\r\nTIMES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 14.7N 132.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 15.5N 133.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 16.4N 135.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 17.3N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 16.8N 143.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 16.0N 147.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 15.5N 152.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 06 2013\r\n \r\nWHILE THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...THE \r\nCLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH A\r\nSMALL AREA OF DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE\r\nSOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT BASED ON\r\nA BLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND ADT ESTIMATES. SOME\r\nLIMITED STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS WEAKENING AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 HOURS AND FOLLOWS\r\nTHE DECAY SHIPS MODEL AFTER THAT TIME. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09...AS HENRIETTE IS CURRENTLY\r\nSITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST\r\nIS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND A MOTION TO THE SOUTH\r\nOF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED AS HENRIETTE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE LATEST\r\nTVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS LATE IN THE PERIOD.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 15.1N 133.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 15.8N 134.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 16.6N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 17.1N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.3N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 15.5N 148.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 15.0N 153.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS IT WAS 6-12 HOURS AGO.  THERE\r\nHAVE NOT BEEN ANY RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE\r\nCOULD BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR.  DVORAK FINAL\r\nT-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SOME...AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND T4.4 FROM THE ADT.  BASED ON THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE AND DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nLOWERED TO 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE RECENT WEAKENING COULD BE SHORT LIVED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HENRIETTE TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN\r\nITS INTENSITY FOR 24 HOURS OR SO.  MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING SHOULD\r\nCOMMENCE WITHIN 36 HOURS AS HENRIETTE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nINGESTS MORE STABLE AIR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST A\r\nLITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS\r\nAND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DURING THAT TIME. \r\nAFTER 36 HOURS...THE WEAKENING RATE MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHIPS...HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE IS MAINTAINING A MOTION OF 300/9 KT AS IT HEADS TOWARD A\r\nBROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH NORTHEAST OF HAWAII.  A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD IN THE\r\nCOMING DAYS...AND HENRIETTE SHOULD ALSO BECOME STEERED BY LOWER-\r\nLEVEL RIDGING AS IT WEAKENS.  THEREFORE...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS\r\nANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  A NOTEWORTHY OUTLIER AMONG THE\r\nTRACK MODELS IS THE ECMWF...WHICH IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE.  FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW\r\nSPEEDS SIMILAR TO THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 15.6N 133.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 16.3N 135.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 17.0N 137.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 17.3N 139.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 17.1N 141.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 16.3N 145.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 15.5N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 14.5N 156.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 07 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION AND THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS.  IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...HENRIETTE IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTERACT WITH\r\nMORE STABLE AIR. ON THIS BASIS...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR NO\r\nCHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WITH A GRADUAL \r\nWEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9\r\nKNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND\r\n36 HOURS...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...FORCING HENRIETTE TO MOVE ON MORE\r\nWESTERLY TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE TURN. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN PERFORMING QUITE WELL SO FAR THIS SEASON.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 16.2N 134.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 16.8N 136.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 17.5N 138.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 17.2N 142.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 16.0N 146.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 15.0N 152.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 13.5N 159.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST\r\n6 HOURS.  AN EYE IS TRYING TO APPEAR IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST...WHILE AN APPARENT DRY SLOT IS WRAPPING BETWEEN THE\r\nCDO AND THE OUTER BANDING IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THERE WAS\r\nA 70 KT AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM CIMSS A FEW HOURS AGO.  BASED\r\nON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10.  THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY MOVING\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nCYCLONE AFTER 24-36 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE OLD TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nHENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS AND INTO SOMEWHAT\r\nSTRONGER WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 12-48 HOURS. \r\nTHIS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...WITH THE GFS...THE\r\nUKMET...AND THE CANADIAN MODELS FORECASTING THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nPART OF THE CIRCULATION TO DISSIPATE DURING THIS TIME.  THE NEW\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLIGHTLY FASTER WEAKENING THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nOVER WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DECREASED SHEAR. \r\nHOWEVER...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nAFTER 48 HOURS...APPARENTLY DUE TO INCREASED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. \r\nTHE LATTER PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL\r\nTREND...BUT WITH A SLOWER WEAKENING RATE THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 16.7N 135.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 17.3N 137.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 17.7N 138.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 17.6N 140.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 17.1N 142.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 16.0N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 14.5N 154.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 13.0N 160.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 07 2013\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF HENRIETTE HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. WHILE AN EYE IS NOT SEEN IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...A\r\n2134Z AMSR-2 PASS FROM THE GCOM-W1 SATELLITE SHOWED A SMALL MID-\r\nLEVEL EYE. HOWEVER...THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED AN\r\nEASTWARD TILT OF THE CIRCULATION WITH HEIGHT CONSISTENT WITH\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 75 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS OF\r\n4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\nAFTER THAT TIME...HENRIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER\r\nWATERS...BUT IN A DRIER ATMOSPHERE. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN SLOW WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO A\r\nBLEND OF THE DECAY SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09. A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nBUILDING TO THE NORTH OF HENRIETTE WILL RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST. THIS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW\r\nNHC FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE LATEST\r\nTVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 17.0N 136.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 17.4N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 17.4N 139.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 17.2N 141.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 16.7N 144.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 15.5N 149.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 13.0N 162.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013\r\n \r\nAN EYE HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF HENRIETTE IS SHRINKING. \r\nTHE WIND FIELD HAS ALSO SHRUNK BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.  DVORAK\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T4.2\r\nFROM THE UW-CIMSS ADT...SO THE WINDS ARE BEING HELD AT 75 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...WEAKENING APPEARS IMMINENT NOW THAT\r\nHENRIETTE IS MOVING OVER WATER THAT IS COLDER THAN 26C AND IS\r\nEXPERIENCING 10-15 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW WEAKENING AND IS MOSTLY\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS. \r\nAFTER THAT...HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4\r\nAND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5 WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFT AND HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 290/8 KT.  A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO TURN THE HURRICANE WESTWARD WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO.\r\nTHEN...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...LOWER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINDUCE A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 36 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND\r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 17.2N 137.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 17.4N 138.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 17.3N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 16.8N 142.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 16.2N 145.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 15.3N 150.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 14.0N 157.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 08 2013\r\n \r\nSOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...HENRIETTE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS MORNING.\r\nENHANCE IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE EMBEDDED IN A SMALL CDO WITH CLOUD\r\nTOPS COLDER THAN -50 DEG C.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGE FROM 77 KT TO 90 KT AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED\r\nTO 85 KT.  SINCE THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER MARGINAL\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO\r\nINCREASE...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING.  THIS\r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL\r\nPREDICTION AND NOT FAR FROM THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nCENTER FIXES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE MOTION IS NOW WESTWARD\r\nOR 280 AT 9 KT.  A NARROW MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF HENRIETTE IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO TURN A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nWEST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nALSO SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE SHOULD CROSS 140W INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY WITHIN \r\n12 TO 18 HOURS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 17.3N 139.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 17.0N 141.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 16.5N 143.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 16.0N 146.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 15.0N 152.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 14.0N 158.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":22,"Date":"2013-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER\r\nRESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15\r\nHOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE\r\nSTRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE\r\nLASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nREMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR\r\nMASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY\r\nFROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE\r\nTO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE\r\nBUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE\r\nCENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE \r\n09/0600 UTC.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Henriette","Adv":23,"Date":"2013-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP082013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082013\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013\r\n \r\nHENRIETTE APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AS THE EYE IS NO\r\nLONGER APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN\r\nHAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI-NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AND THEN ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A\r\nBIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A LITTLE ABOVE THE LATEST\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/10...AND THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE THROUGH 48 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION AND A FASTER\r\nTREND IN THE GUIDANCE. AT DAYS 3 AND 4 THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED FASTER AND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH TOWARD THE LATEST TCVE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nPASSES FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B AT 1832Z AND 1926Z...RESPECTIVELY...\r\nINDICATE THAT THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF HENRIETTE IS QUITE SMALL.\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA THE 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT HENRIETTE HAS CROSSED 140W INTO THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC\r\nBASIN...THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER WILL ISSUE THE NEXT\r\nADVISORY. FUTURE PUBLIC ADVISORIES CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nWTPA33 PHFO AND AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP3. FUTURE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nDISCUSSIONS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA43 PHFO AND AWIPS\r\nHEADER HFOTCDCP3.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 17.0N 140.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 16.6N 142.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 16.0N 144.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 15.5N 147.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 15.0N 149.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 14.0N 156.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 13.5N 162.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN\r\nLUCAS...AND IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A BAND\r\nTHAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...BUT IT HAS A\r\nDISTINCT WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MEETS THE\r\nQUALIFICATIONS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE\r\nIT REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND\r\nINDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A LOW- TO\r\nMODERATE-STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS.  WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO THE COLDER WATER...\r\nSTABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY\r\nDAY 4.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD\r\nA BREAK IN THE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.  A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DIG\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE IN PLACE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME MODELS MOVING THE\r\nWEAKENING CYCLONE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA COAST AND OTHERS\r\nTURNING IT SOUTHWESTWARD.  DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND WEAKENING\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW\r\nBECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON DAY 5.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nHEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 17.5N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING.  THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED\r\nJUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND\r\nTHERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nSYSTEM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AND THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.  THERE IS A RELATIVELY SHORT\r\nWINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...SINCE SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HOURS\r\nOR LESS.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nLATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...330/5...CONTINUES.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE...AND TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCAUSED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  THE GFS IS\r\nSLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST...AND SLOWER.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nHEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 17.7N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 19.7N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 21.1N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 22.7N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 25.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...THE\r\nOVERALL CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE\r\nCIRCULATION...AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAINS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND IT HAS THE\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS\r\nBEFORE THE CIRCULATION REACHES THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE\r\nCYCLONE ABOVE 40 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE\r\nLONG TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330\r\nDEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS HEADING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nCAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP\r\nTHE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 4 DAYS...BRINGING THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA. THE NHC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND HAS GIVEN A LITTLE LESS WEIGHT TO THE GFS WHICH\r\nSHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE PENISULA.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN SURGING\r\nNORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...\r\nINCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 17.9N 112.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 18.7N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 26.0N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013\r\n \r\nTHERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW TWO\r\nSEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF WHICH IS DIRECTLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OTHER CONVECTIVE AREA IS\r\nLOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED\r\nFROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. ONLY A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...\r\nDESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...DUE TO THE\r\nLARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD PATTERN. WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nAND STABLE AIR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SSTS OF AROUND 23C.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPERSIST AND BECOME REINFORCED BY A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA\r\nTHIS WEEKEND. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE\r\nSTEADILY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF\r\nAND UKMET MODELS.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 18.7N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 19.7N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 21.2N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 22.8N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 24.5N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 27.0N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE\r\nCENTER NOW EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST.  ASCAT DATA LAST\r\nNIGHT SHOWED SOME 35 KT VECTORS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. \r\nBASED ON THESE DATA AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT.  THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED\r\nTHAT IVO HAS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF MONSOON CYCLONES OF THE\r\nEASTERN HEMISPHERE...INCLUDING A VERY LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS\r\nTO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.  IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTER TO JUST NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN 360/4.  IVO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD AN AREA OF\r\nSOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nUNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS\r\nCOMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT... THERE IS\r\nSIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS...HWRF...NAVGEM...\r\nAND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IVO TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHEAR\r\nAPART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SCENARIO\r\nAND CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HR.  THE\r\nNEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nBASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.\r\n \r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL IVO REACHES COLDER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE COLD WATERS\r\nWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 18.7N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 19.8N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 23.3N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 25.1N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 27.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IVO\r\nHAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE\r\nASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO\r\n40 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY IN AN AREA ABOUT 150 N MI FROM\r\nTHE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES.\r\n\r\nTHE REFORMATION MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION VERY UNCERTAIN...WITH THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF 360/5.  IVO REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD\r\nAN AREA OF SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...\r\nTHERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nGFS...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IVO TO MOVE NORTHWARD\r\nACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE SYSTEM TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING OVER\r\nTHE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NAVGEM\r\nSPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING A CONTINUED\r\nSLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE TRACK FORECAST STILL FOLLOWS\r\nTHE ECMWF/UKMET SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF\r\nIVO TO STALL WEST OF BAJA AFTER 48 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE POSITION OF\r\nTHE REFORMED CENTER.\r\n \r\nGRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL IVO REACHES COLDER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE COLD WATERS\r\nWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO IT.\r\n \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD REQUIRE\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...\r\nNORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH\r\nFLOODING.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 19.5N 111.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 20.6N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 22.6N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 24.4N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 26.1N 114.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 28.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...AND IVO STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION\r\nDEVOID OF AN INNER CORE. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OR THE\r\nAREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN PIVOTING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC\r\nGYRE. IN ADDITION...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY\r\nDIMINISHING...AND THERE IS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES SUGGEST LOWER WINDS...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP\r\nREPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS. THESE\r\nSTRONG WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. IVO HAS A SMALL\r\nOPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER.  \r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IVO CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS\r\nINDUCED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IVO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS...BECOMES SHALLOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER WITHIN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE\r\nWITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK AND OTHERS A TURN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST. THE LATTER SCENARIO...WHICH INCLUDE THE ECMWF...IS\r\nPROBABLY THE RESULT OF THE MODELS ASSUMING IVO TO BE A MUCH WEAKER\r\nAND SHALLOW CYCLONE. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 20.7N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 22.1N 112.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 23.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 25.5N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013\r\n\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF IVO HAS EVOLVED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS GAINED CURVATURE AND BECOME MORE\r\nSYMMETRIC...THE INTENSITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECREASING.\r\nGIVEN THESE MIXED SIGNALS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40\r\nKT...IN AGREEMENT WITH A SHIP REPORT OF 40 KT TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND THE UW-CIMSS ADT. IVO IS MOVING OVER A SHARP SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND IT SHOULD BE OVER WATERS COOLER THAN 26C\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS NARROWING...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED\r\nTO COMMENCE BY TONIGHT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS NEAR 20C AND IN A\r\nSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.\r\n\r\nIVO HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS EXPECTED...AND HAS SPED\r\nUP SOME...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 345/12. A CONTINUED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A\r\nPERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A SIGNIFICANT SLOW\r\nDOWN IS FORECAST BEYOND A COUPLE OF DAYS ONCE THE CYCLONE BECOMES\r\nSHALLOW AND IS INFLUENCED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD\r\nACROSS THE BAJA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY\r\nRAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 22.4N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 23.6N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 25.3N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 26.8N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 27.6N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 28.3N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013\r\n\r\nEVEN WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE DATA...THE CENTER OF IVO HAS BEEN\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING.  OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA DURING\r\nTHE NIGHT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO\r\nSOUTH...AND A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT MULTIPLE\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS WERE PRESENT. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY SUPPORTS A CENTER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NEAR THE\r\nNORTHERNMOST OF THE TWO MAIN CONVECTIVE MASSES.  THERE IS NO CHANGE\r\nTO ANY OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 40 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/10.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO\r\nTHE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER\r\nPOSITION AND INITIAL MOTION.  IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nOVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR\r\nAPART IN 24-48 HR...WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PORTION CONTINUING\r\nNORTHWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING WEST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND IT IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION.\r\n \r\nIVO SHOULD START WEAKENING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE\r\nCOLDER WATER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE\r\nCOMPLETELY BY 96 HR.\r\n \r\nRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 22.5N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 23.8N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 25.4N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 26.6N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 27.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivo","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...WITH THE REMAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW IN THIN\r\nBANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  BASED ON THIS AND THE CONTINUED\r\nMOTION OVER COLDER WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35\r\nKT.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS PRESENT...WHICH CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE\r\nTHE CENTER FINDING.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.  IVO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHEARS APART IN\r\n24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STALL WEST OF\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS\r\nCONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA\r\nAND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nIVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST\r\nOF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY\r\n96 HR.\r\n \r\nRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  EVEN THOUGH IVO IS WEAKENING...MOISTURE\r\nFROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 22.9N 114.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 24.2N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 25.6N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 26.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 26.8N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THERE ARE STILL\r\nA FEW PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT LOWERING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS\r\nAND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BECOME DECOUPLED. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS UNTIL IVO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. BY THEN...\r\nIVO WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO MEANDER IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. \r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE\r\nTHE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 23.5N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 24.6N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 25.8N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013\r\n \r\nDESPITE BEING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C...IVO HAS BEEN PRODUCING A\r\nBAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS...\r\nWHICH STILL SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF 25- TO 30-KT WINDS TO THE EAST\r\nAND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AS IVO MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nIVO HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE BIT OF SPEED AND IS MOVING 335/9 KT...AND\r\nTHIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO.  LOW-LEVEL\r\nNORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO STALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS\r\nAND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nMOISTURE FROM IVO IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN\r\nPORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH\r\nFLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 24.4N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 25.7N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 26.8N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 27.1N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivo","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013\r\n \r\nCOOL WATER AND STABLE AIR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON IVO...AS THE\r\nINTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THIS\r\nMORNING.  NEARLY ALL OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW\r\nLOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A\r\nRECENT SHIP OBSERVATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA.  IVO IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  IVO SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY\r\nOR TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8 KT.  IVO IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nBECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD IN\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE FROM IVO CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS\r\nAND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 25.1N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 26.1N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 26.7N 115.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 26.7N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ivo","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP092013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013\r\n \r\nIVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME\r\nWEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12\r\nHOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS.  AS A\r\nRESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND\r\nIVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW.  THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC\r\nADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT\r\nAND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN\r\nAND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nMOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD\r\nNORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE \r\nFLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013\r\n \r\nA RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.  THE INSTRUMENT MEASURED A SMALL AREA OF\r\n40 KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY\r\nASSIGNED TO THE CYCLONE.  CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  JULIETTE IS A VERY SMALL\r\nCYCLONE WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT ONLY 30 TO 40\r\nN MI EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE TROPICAL STORM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH\r\nTIME IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA PENINSULA AND REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS\r\nWEST OF THE PENINSULA.  AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS\r\nEXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED THERAFTER.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nSOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE\r\nCYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOWER...IT SHOULD TURN WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE.\r\n\r\nTHE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 21.5N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 25.6N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 26.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 26.8N 117.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nJULIETTE IS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.  RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION\r\nHAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SMALL CENTER\r\nNEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE MASS.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CABO PULMO MEXICO.\r\n \r\nJULIETTE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/21...AS IT IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH\r\nSOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE GYRE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nNORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 12 HR...AND IT LIES A LITTLE\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nA COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN\r\n24 HR OR LESS.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW OVER COLD WATER IN ABOUT 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BETWEEN\r\n48-72 HR.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THIS SMALL CYCLONE WOULD\r\nDISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY DEGENERATING TO AN\r\nOPEN TROUGH.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 23.0N 110.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 24.7N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 27.1N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 27.6N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013\r\n \r\nWIND REPORTS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA LATE LAST EVENING INDICATED THAT JULIETTE WAS A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED.  AN ELEVATED SENSOR AT CABO\r\nPULMO MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 KT AND A GUST TO 72 KT AROUND\r\n0500 UTC...AND ANOTHER ELEVATED STATION FURTHER UP THE WEST COAST\r\nAT EL PESCADERO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 KT WITH A GUST TO\r\n60 KT AROUND 0430 UTC.  BASED ON AN ADJUSTMENT OF THESE DATA...AND\r\nTHE FACT THAT JULIETTE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/19 KT.  JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO\r\nAND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nWITHIN 36 HOURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND\r\nEAST ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEPS THE\r\nCENTER OF JULIETTE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nJULIETTE HAS BEEN BENEFITTING FROM A SMALL TONGUE OF WARM WATER THAT\r\nEXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA...BUT THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MUCH COLDER\r\nWATER.  THE COLD WATER...AS WELL AS CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN VERY SOON.  THE\r\nUPDATED INITIAL INTENSITY CAUSED AN UPWARD BUMP IN THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW KEEPS JULIETTE AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE ICON INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE UPDATED\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST NOW PUTS MORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT RISK FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS.  THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS THEREFORE EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 24.4N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 26.1N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 27.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 28.5N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 28.9N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Juliette","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013\r\n \r\nINTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS ARE TAKING A TOLL ON\r\nJULIETTE.  THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DEGRADED...WITH ONLY\r\nA SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES\r\nOVER COLDER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.  AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE\r\nSMALL CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER\r\nTODAY OR TONIGHT.  EITHER WAY...JULIETTE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH LONGER.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 19 KT.  \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 25.7N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 27.1N 114.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 28.2N 117.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 29.0N 119.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Juliette","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED\r\nTO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.  BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF \r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT.  THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS WEST \r\nOF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE CYCLONE \r\nSHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DECELERATED AS\r\nANTICIPATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR EARLY\r\nFRIDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE MODELS\r\nREMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 26.1N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 27.2N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 28.2N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Juliette","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP102013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102013\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013\r\n \r\nALL THAT REMAINS OF JULIETTE IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH NO\r\nASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  BASED ON THE LACK OF ORGANIZED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...JULIETTE IS\r\nDECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS BASED ON\r\nA PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nWEAKEN OVER COLD WATERS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND\r\nALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN\r\n24-36H.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 26.7N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 27.6N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RRA\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013\r\n\r\nA SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE ITCZ\r\nCIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE\r\nORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ASCAT DATA\r\nSUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.  WHILE THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS FAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING....IT WILL REACH COOLER WATERS IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  IN ADDITION...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR\r\nTWO.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED AT ALL ABOUT THE PROSPECTS\r\nOF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HIGHEST RELIABLE MODEL\r\nSUGGESTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 46 KT.  GIVEN THE TIME OF\r\nTHE YEAR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM.  \r\n\r\nBEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6.  THE LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...\r\nWHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN A\r\nDAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON\r\nWHETHER THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR TURN\r\nBACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ENHANCED ITCZ REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF\r\nMEXICO.  GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND STEERED\r\nMORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG RANGE...THE NHC FORECAST WILL\r\nPUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE EQUATORWARD SOLUTIONS.  ALL GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN 120 HR...AND SO DOES THE NHC PREDICTION\r\nBELOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0300Z 18.3N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 19.1N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 21.3N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013\r\n \r\nA 0407 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nLOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THIS\r\nSTRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE\r\nANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST\r\nTAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND A 0445Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE DEPRESSION\r\nHAS ONLY A DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nIMPART MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME...WHICH\r\nSUGGESTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS\r\nTRENDED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING THE\r\nDEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD BUT STILL REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND\r\nDISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-\r\nLEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME. THEN AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...MOST\r\nOF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AND\r\nA TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY DAY 4 AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE\r\nDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI-\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/0900Z 18.8N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 19.5N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 21.3N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 21.3N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 20.9N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS AMBIGUOUS ON THE EXACT\r\nPOSITION OF THE CYCLONE.  FORTUNATELY...A 0938Z NOAA-19 AMSU AND A\r\n1217Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN MORE ACCURATELY LOCATING\r\nITS CENTER.  THESE INDICATE A MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF 325/6...\r\nPRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE.  AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE\r\nDAYS...IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nTHE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD\r\nINITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE\r\nCONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z\r\nESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY\r\nSHORTLY.  HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL\r\nLIKELY BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED...AS COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN\r\nABOUT A DAY AND A HALF.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN\r\nNOT BRINGING THE CYCLONE HIGHER THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nINTENSITY PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE\r\nREMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013\r\n \r\nSURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS\r\nAFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO.  A RAGGED EYE HAS\r\nINTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS\r\nALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING.  HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT.  EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45\r\nKT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY.  BASED\r\nUPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE\r\nINTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY.\r\n \r\nTHE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE\r\nMOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE\r\nAT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR\r\nSO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO\r\nDAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE\r\nIS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN.  HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH\r\nAS IT DID.  GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED\r\nTO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1\r\nHURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC.  COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN\r\nABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH\r\nSTRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR\r\nDAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013\r\n \r\nKIKO IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE.  MICROWAVE IMAGES\r\nINDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE...AND EVEN THE LAST FEW\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITHIN A MORE\r\nSYMMETRICAL CDO.  THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT...A BIT HIGHER THAN\r\nTHE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HARD TIME\r\nKEEPING UP WITH THIS CYCLONE.  THE PACE OF STRENGTHENING SHOULD\r\nDIMINISH SOON AS KIKO IS MOVING ACROSS COOLING WATERS...AND WILL BE\r\nCROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12-24H.  AFTER THAT TIME...A MORE\r\nSTEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR\r\nALOFT.  THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n\r\nKIKO HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY MOVING A BIT EAST OF NORTH DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS...010/6.  IT APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST\r\nSIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A NOTABLE SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND\r\nTHE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 30-45 NMI AT MOST TIME\r\nPERIODS ON THIS PACKAGE.  IN 36-48H...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY\r\nDECOUPLE VERTICALLY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS IN LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0300Z 20.0N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013\r\n \r\nTHE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO SEEMS TO HAVE HALTED TONIGHT.\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A\r\nTIGHT INNER CORE...BUT THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SYMMETRIC\r\nWITH THE CENTER NOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEER OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 60\r\nKT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA.\r\n \r\nKIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE\r\n26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 24 HOURS.  AS A RESULT...KIKO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nPEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AND COULD STILL BECOME HURRICANE THIS\r\nMORNING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO LONGER EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE\r\nUPDATED FOREAST.  COOLER SSTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR\r\nSHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT.\r\nKIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS\r\nAND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 010/6 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE EASTERN\r\nPORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOME A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN\r\nTHE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS\r\nKIKO GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN.  AS A\r\nRESULT...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.  HOWEVER...THE UPDATED\r\nTRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF\r\nSOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 20.6N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013\r\n \r\nA TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 1122Z INDICATED THAT KIKO POSSESSED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THERE WAS NO CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE\r\nBENEATH IT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A CIRA AMSU\r\nESTIMATE OF 42 KT TO AS HIGH AS 72 KT FROM BOTH CIMSS AMSU AND ADT\r\nESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH KIKO COULD HAVE BRIEFLY BEEN A HURRICANE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY\r\nHIGHER THAN THE T3.5/55 KT ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/06 KT.  KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nWEAKENS AND MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW.  AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE VERTICALLY\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD GET TRAPPED AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE\r\nWEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC\r\nTHE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCE.  \r\n \r\nKIKO IS STILL OVER SSTS NEAR 27C...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nSUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ACT TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nIS LOW...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH\r\nOF THE CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE\r\nLOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE AFTER THE SYSTEM LOSES\r\nMOST...IF NOT ALL...OF ITS CONVECTION OVER 23-24C SSTS BY THAT\r\nTIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL\r\nINTENSITY MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 21.3N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 21.9N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 22.6N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 23.4N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 23.8N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013\r\n \r\nSINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KIKO HAS\r\nDEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS THAT\r\nREMAINS...IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEVERTHELESS...\r\nKIKO REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 47-KT\r\nSCATTEROMETER WIND REPORT FROM A 1653 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS. AS A\r\nRESULT OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY\r\nBEING DECREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. KIKO IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND\r\nGRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS\r\nKIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nBECOME STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE\r\nNHC FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.\r\n \r\nKIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHORTLY. IN ADDITION...\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO INGEST\r\nCOOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF THESE TWO UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nHASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RESULT IN\r\nA NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...\r\nAND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS...\r\nWHICH ARE FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN 48 AND 96\r\nHOURS...RESPECTIVELY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 21.8N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 22.5N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 23.1N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 23.5N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 23.7N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 24.0N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kiko","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO IS FADING...AND DVORAK DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN FAST.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE EARLIER\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY RULE...THE\r\nADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 45 KT.  KIKO\r\nIS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nAIR MASS.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OR THE\r\nPREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nLAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS\r\nALREADY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nABOUT 340/5.  A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW\r\nCYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO...THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW TO A\r\nCRAWL WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO THE WEST OF\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST A TAD TO THE\r\nWEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 22.5N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 23.1N 116.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 23.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 24.1N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 24.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED\r\nOVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nCLOUDS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND\r\nA BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF 30 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT.  DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED \r\nDOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES \r\nSITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.    \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kiko","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013\r\n \r\nKIKO HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0700 UTC\r\nAND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nIN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS BEING MAINTAINED AS\r\nA 30-KT DEPRESSION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALL\r\nAVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAVE NOW DECOUPLED...SO KIKO SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A\r\nMORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED\r\nBY 48 HOURS...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/02 KT. AS INDICATED IN\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORIES...KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. THE\r\nCYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BASICALLY MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA\r\nWITHIN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL IT\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 22.9N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kiko","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP112013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112013\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2013\r\n \r\nKIKO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12\r\nHOURS AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO INGEST DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL\r\nAIR AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER COOL WATERS THE PAST 6\r\nHOURS. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A\r\nPOST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE LACK OF\r\nCONVECTION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nIS STILL QUITE ROBUST...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT KIKO HAS BECOME A SHALLOW VORTEX\r\nEMBEDDED IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO SPIN\r\nDOWN OVER 24C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 22.9N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 22.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 22.8N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 22.7N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013\r\n\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE\r\nSOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVERNIGHT...\r\nAND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ENOUGH\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR IT TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...WHICH IS\r\nSUPPORTED BY THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND RECENT DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nFORWARD SPEED AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO.  WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WITHIN AN AREA OF\r\nWEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.  THE NHC TRACK IS ALONG THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH \r\nIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND IN LOW\r\nSHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE SPRAWLING\r\nNATURE AND LACK OF AN INNER CORE SUGGEST THAT ANY INTENSIFICATION\r\nSHOULD BE GRADUAL.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nINGEST STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THIS SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS.\r\n\r\nINTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR\r\nTHE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/0900Z 17.6N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 18.4N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 19.7N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 20.8N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2013\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF A LARGE CLUSTER OF\r\nCONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nSUGGEST 30-35 KT...AND BECAUSE OF THE POOR SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THE INITIAL\r\nSTRUCTURE AND THE PROXIMITY TO SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO ARE LIKELY TO\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE FROM INTENSIFYING TOO QUICKLY. WHILE THE\r\nSTATISTICAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION\r\nBECOMING A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS DO NOT SUGGEST MUCH STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE LATEST FORECAST IS KEPT BASICALLY THE SAME THE\r\nAS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND STAYS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nBASED PRIMARILY ON EXTRAPOLATION...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. A\r\nLARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MEXICO SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION...BUT IS STILL SOUTH OF THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/1500Z 18.0N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 20.3N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 21.4N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 22.3N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 22.9N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 23.5N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY HAS NOT BEEN AS HELPFUL AS IT USUALLY IS IN LOCATING\r\nTHE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE CONVECTIVE BURST OBSCURING\r\nTHE CIRCULATION FEATURES.  ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER IS A BIT\r\nELONGATED...AND THE INITIAL POSITION IS RELOCATED NORTHWARD...\r\nCLOSER TO A CENTER INDICATED ON MICROWAVE PASSES.  STILL...THE\r\nSURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED A FAIR DISTANCE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35\r\nKT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE WOULD NOT SEEM TO FAVOR RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION...BUT WITH LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATERS...SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT 36H OR SO. LAND\r\nINTERACTION AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENA TO WEAKEN AFTER\r\nTHAT TIME.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS STAYING ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE PLUME...GIVING SOME WEIGHT TO THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH\r\nGENERALLY DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING.  \r\n\r\nRECENTLY LORENA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...PERHAPS DUE\r\nTO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TEMPORARILY\r\nWEAKENING THE RIDGE.  A LONG-TERM MOTION IS 325/10...NOTABLY TO THE\r\nRIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  THE LOW SHOULD MOVE FARTHER AWAY\r\nFROM LORENA...ALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST\r\nTOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO\r\nTREND A BIT FASTER AND NORTHWARD...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED\r\nIN THAT WAY.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN\r\nPART OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  05/2100Z 19.2N 106.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 20.3N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 21.6N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 22.5N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 24.5N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013\r\n \r\nFOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF LORENA WAS NOT WELL\r\nDEFINED AND WAS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. HOWEVER...TWO SSMI/S PASSES\r\nWITHIN THE PAST 3 HOURS CLEARLY SHOW THAT A NEW CENTER HAS FORMED\r\nFARTHER NORTH AND IS DISPLACED JUST SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nTHE CONVECTION ITSELF WANED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT A\r\nRECENT BURST HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE NEW CENTER POSITION. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN...BUT A 12-HOUR MOTION YIELDS 325/11 KT.  LORENA\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO A LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. \r\nGLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS...BUT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS LEFT BEHIND IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  AS A RESULT...THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY 36\r\nHOURS...LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FOR A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LEFT OF THE TVCE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN AN ATTEMPT TO DISCOUNT THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nTHE HWRF...WHICH MAINTAINS A DEEP VORTEX THAT MOVES UP THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nSEPARATE...LORENA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN MUCH\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nREMAINS GOOD AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY\r\nWARM...SO THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MAINTAIN TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH FOR 36 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...LORENA WILL BE\r\nINTERACTING WITH LAND...AND THE INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CIRCULATION\r\nWILL LIKELY SPIN DOWN QUICKLY.  THE UPDATED FORECAST NOW SHOWS\r\nLORENA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nTHE NORTHWARD REFORMATION OF THE CENTER MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WARNING.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN\r\nISSUED NORTH OF THE WARNING AREA ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE\r\nWINDS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0300Z 20.4N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 21.6N 108.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 22.5N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 23.2N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 23.8N 110.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 25.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013\r\n \r\nLORENA IS DISPLAYING A LIMITED AMOUNT OF RAINBANDS AND THUNDERSTORMS\r\nTHOUGH THESE HAVE QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB...WHILE ADT VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AS WELL AS TWO SHIPS NEAR THE CENTER DO NOT\r\nSUGGEST A WELL-DEVELOPED INNER CORE. THE INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nSTANDARD INFRARED...SHORTWAVE INFRARED...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY THIS\r\nEVENING ARE AMBIGUOUS ABOUT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.  THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT...WITH A MORE\r\nTHAN USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.  LORENA IS PRIMARILY BEING\r\nSTEERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTHEAST.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AFTER INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND...LORENA SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD IN\r\nTHE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS PRIMARILY BASED\r\nUPON THE GFS..GFS ENSEMBLE..AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLORENA DOES HAVE SOME OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE INTERACTING\r\nWITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT TIME IS RUNNING\r\nSHORT.  THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN A MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND IS\r\nTRAVERSING SSTS OF 29C.  HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF LORENA WILL BE IMPACTED BY BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nRESTRICT ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nIS ANTICIPATED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS..AND HWRF MODELS AND\r\nIS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AN ALTERNATIVE...BUT\r\nUNLIKELY SCENARIO...IS FOR LORENA TO TRAVERSE THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA AND RETAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR AN ADDITIONAL\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/0900Z 21.3N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 22.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 23.2N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 23.7N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 24.3N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013\r\n \r\nRADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS SUGGEST THE CENTER OF LORENA IS\r\nAPPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  SOME BANDING\r\nIS EVIDENT...ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT THAT\r\nIMPRESSIVE IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES.  DVORAK ESTIMATES STILL\r\nSUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE LORENA\r\nINTERACTS WITH LAND DURING THE NEXT 6-12 H.  AFTER THAT TIME...\r\nENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND CONTINUED LAND INTERACTION\r\nSHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CYCLONE.  SINCE IT IS SUCH A\r\nWEAK SYSTEM TO BEGIN WITH...LORENA SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nAND/OR DISSIPATE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE WEEKEND.  THE LATEST\r\nNHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL PREDICTIONS...THE LATTER OF WHICH HAVE DONE A FINE JOB ON\r\nANTICIPATING THE LACK OF STRENGTHENING.\r\n \r\nLORENA APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER PACE...315/10.\r\nA DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AT A DECREASING FORWARD SPEED....AND AS THE\r\nSTORM WEAKENS...IT SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD.  THE PRIMARY\r\nDISAGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE\r\nGETS BEFORE IT DECOUPLES VERTICALLY.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PROBABLY STAY SOUTH OF THE GFDL/HWRF\r\nFORECASTS WHICH SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...GENERALLY LYING NEAR\r\nOR SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/1500Z 22.3N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 23.1N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 23.8N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 24.3N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 25.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013\r\n \r\nCABO SAN LUCAS RADAR HAS BEEN USEFUL IN TRACKING THE CENTER OF\r\nLORENA THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWING IT PASS SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nTIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE CENTER HAS ALSO BECOME MORE DEFINED\r\nON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES NEAR\r\nAND EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  A SOMEWHAT ELEVATED REPORT FROM CABO\r\nPULMO HAD SUSTAINED WIND OF 41 KT A FEW HOURS AGO...AND GIVEN THE\r\nINCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT. \r\nWEAKENING WILL PROBABLY BEGIN BY TOMORROW DUE TO MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND SOME LAND INTERACTION.  \r\nTHE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR\r\nOR BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8.  LORENA SHOULD SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT WEAKENS.  GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO THE MODELS\r\nREALIZING THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT IN WEAKER LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST IN LINE WITH THE MODEL TREND.  REMNANT LOW STATUS IS\r\nLIKELY ON SUNDAY DUE TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AND LAND\r\nINTERACTION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 22.8N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 23.4N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 23.9N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 24.2N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lorena","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR DATA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS INDICATE THAT\r\nLORENA HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS MORE ELONGATED...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN DIMINISHING AND IS NOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION. THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE DECREASED...AND\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 35 KT. CONTINUED\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LORENA TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION\r\nIN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS. THIS FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE TREND SEEN IN THE GFS\r\nAND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT ON THE SOUTHWEST\r\nSIDE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED\r\nSTATES. LORENA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IT WEAKENS...AND ITS\r\nREMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY CLOSE TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA COAST BY SUNDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 23.2N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 23.6N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 24.0N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 24.3N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 24.5N 112.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorena","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS NOW BECOME SPORADIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH LORENA\r\nAS THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE\r\nARE TAKING THEIR TOLL.  USING A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK\r\nFINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nWEAKENED TO ABOUT A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION...WHICH IS THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY.  \r\n\r\nSTANDARD INFRARED AND SHORT-WAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DO NOT PROVIDE FOR\r\nAN ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE...DUE\r\nTO THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. \r\nFORTUNATELY...0054Z TRMM AND 0312Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES ALLOW FOR\r\nA MUCH BETTER DETERMINATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION OF LORENA. \r\nTHESE INDICATE A MOTION OF THE CYCLONE OF 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT. \r\nLORENA SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AND TURN TO THE NORTH AS IT IS\r\nSTEERED BY THE RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. \r\nTHE PREDICTED TRACK IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND\r\nIS JUST WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nLORENA SHOULD NOT LAST MUCH LONGER AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO\r\nINCREASINGLY HOSTILE THERMODYNAMICS.  ALL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGEST A GRADUAL WINDING DOWN OF THE CYCLONE...WHICH IS\r\nALSO INDICATED IN THIS INTENSITY PREDICTION.  TRANSITION TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN ABOUT A DAY...BUT THIS COULD\r\nOCCUR SOONER IF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP\r\nSHORTLY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 23.2N 111.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 23.6N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 23.8N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 24.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorena","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION BRIEFLY REDEVELOPED NEAR LORENA...\r\nPROBABLY JUST AN ARTIFACT OF THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD...AND THE\r\nCENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING EXPOSED ON FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY. \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 30 KT IS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY.  AS THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO MORE STABLE AIR...IT\r\nSHOULD LOSE ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN.  THE LATEST NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.   LORENA WILL\r\nPROBABLY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 12H.\r\n \r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5.  LORENA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE IT GETS CAUGHT IN\r\nRATHER LIGHT LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.  THE LATEST FORECAST SHOWS\r\nLITTLE NET MOTION AFTER 12H...AND THE SMALL CIRCULATION SHOULD\r\nDISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 23.8N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 24.0N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 24.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 24.0N 112.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lorena","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013\r\n\r\nALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF LORENA.\r\nTHE CURRENT INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES. BARRING A SERIOUS COMEBACK IN THE CONVECTION...THIS\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW THIS EVENING DUE TO DRY\r\nSTABLE AIR AND COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO ABOUT\r\n3 KT AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AND LITTLE NET MOTION IS LIKELY AS\r\nTHE SHALLOW CIRCULATION GETS CAUGHT IN LIGHT STEERING ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE DISTANT EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS\r\nMADE TO EITHER THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST. THE REMNANTS OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A SURFACE TROUGH IN A DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 23.9N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 24.1N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 24.0N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Lorena","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP122013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 07 2013\r\n\r\nLORENA HAS BEEN DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12\r\nHOURS...THUS IT NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS\r\nIS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANT LOW STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND IS PRODUCING WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT. A GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT\r\nDRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OVER COOL WATERS NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE BY EARLY MONDAY.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 24.3N 112.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 24.4N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 24.6N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nSOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB.  THE DEPRESSION IS IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER\r\nWARM WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  THE MAIN\r\nINHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND\r\nITS INITIAL STRUCTURE WHICH IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF THE ITCZ.  THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/3. THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SOON DUE TO A\r\nDEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO.  THIS WARNING MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER\r\nTODAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 15.7N 101.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 16.0N 101.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 16.8N 101.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 17.7N 101.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 18.7N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nWEST THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BALL OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nWERE ABOUT 35 KT...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. \r\nWHILE THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS SMALL...THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC\r\nGYRE THAT CONTAINS LOTS OF STRONG WINDS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS STRUCTURE MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nTRICKY SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nFROM ASCAT...MANUEL SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND\r\nTHE NHC PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT THE UPPER END\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM.  \r\n\r\nINSTEAD OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING...IT SEEMS\r\nLIKE MANUEL IS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/5. MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE STORM SHOULD TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN\r\nRELATIVELY SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...\r\nTHE MODEL SPREAD HAS GROWN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE\r\nNORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE OVER\r\nMEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID. THE NEW\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE\r\nECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISING\r\nIF FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE\r\nIMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND RECENT\r\nPASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL\r\nEYELIKE FEATURE. FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH ADT ESTIMATES\r\nARE AROUND 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40\r\nKT BASED ON THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYELIKE FEATURE. THE 34-KT WIND\r\nRADII WERE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BASED ON WIND\r\nREPORTS FROM SHIP DFZB2.\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.\r\nMANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE\r\nTHAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS\r\nMEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM\r\nINGRID LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE GYRE COMPLEX TO SHIFT SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN MANUEL GRADUALLY ASSUMING A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL\r\nIN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MANUEL HAS A\r\nSMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRMM\r\nAND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING AN EYELIKE FEATURE. SINCE\r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 18-24\r\nHOURS...MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nMODEL ICON. HOWEVER...IF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 15.3N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS\r\nORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS\r\nEARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...\r\nSO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT.\r\n \r\nMANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.\r\nALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL\r\nTHEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT\r\nGENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES\r\nLANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n \r\nSTRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO\r\nGENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD\r\nBE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nHAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n\r\nMANUEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION ON THE\r\nUPSWING.  A CURVED BAND IS NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nCENTER...WITH AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING.  WHILE\r\nTHE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE DUSSELDORF EXPRESS\r\nREPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 997 MB WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF MANUEL OF 994 MB OR SO. \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT...A BIT ABOVE THE DVORAK \r\nESTIMATES AND NEAR THE KNAFF-ZEHR-COURTNEY WIND-PRESSURE\r\nRELATIONSHIP.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MANUEL COULD GET A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN THE 50 KT SHOWN BELOW BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.   \r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 355/5.  MANUEL SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS\r\nSLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE\r\nFORECAST PATH...AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  \r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nHAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 16.2N 102.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 17.0N 102.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 18.3N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 20.5N 104.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF MANUEL HAS\r\nBECOME MORE SYMMETRIC WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nDVORAK...ADT...AND AMSU-BASED MICROWAVE ESTIMATES ALL SUGGEST AN\r\nINTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...WHICH WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY...\r\nALTHOUGH IT COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. SOME STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL GIVEN THE WARM WATER AND RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nPREDICTION. MANUEL SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO...AND IT COULD EVEN DISSIPATE BY 36H.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS GRADUALLY TURNING LEFTWARD...NOW 345/6.  MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...CAUSING MANUEL\r\nTO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AND ACCELERATE.  THERE HAS BEEN\r\nNO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NHC FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY AN UPDATE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THERE IS SOME INDICATION\r\nTHAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL MIGHT MAKE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC\r\nAGAIN SOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A\r\nREMOTE POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED GREATLY IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON THE LATEST ASCAT/SHIP DATA...\r\nALTHOUGH THESE WINDS/SEAS ARE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-\r\nSCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN.\r\n \r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT\r\nHAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 16.8N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.7N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 19.1N 103.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 20.3N 104.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. AN ELONGATED CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED AND CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER\r\nEYE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND A 14/2215Z\r\nCIRA AMSU OVERPASS...AND T3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE\r\nDATA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE\r\nCONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN\r\nSTRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES.\r\nMANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...BUT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT\r\nMANUEL HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY NORTHWARD COURSE FOR THE PAST 5\r\nHOURS. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. WESTWARD OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO...FORCING MANUEL TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE\r\nEAST DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT OTHERWISE\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.\r\n\r\nSOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL\r\nOCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING\r\nA HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...VERY WARM\r\nWATER...MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ONCE THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES INLAND...HOWEVER...RAPID WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD SHOULD\r\nOCCUR OWING TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.\r\nALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL\r\nCOULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE SO DISRUPTED THAT\r\nREGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND SOUTHEAST BASED ON SHIP REPORTS IN THOSE QUADRANTS.\r\n\r\nIN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE\r\nCOMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF\r\nCAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 17.2N 102.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 19.4N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 20.6N 104.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nMANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY.  IN FACT...THE MOST\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE MAY NOT BE QUITE\r\nAS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS LAST EVENING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM\r\nSAB...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nAFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE EAST LAST EVENING...MANUEL HAS TURNED\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7 KT...TOWARD A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  MANUEL IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOON...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. \r\nA NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFTER LANDFALL...\r\nKEEPING THE CENTER OF MANUEL OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY\r\nOR TWO.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT FEW HOURS...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IS QUICKLY DWINDLING.  NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAS REACHED LAND.  RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER\r\nMOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE BY 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS\r\nDISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...BUT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD CONTINUE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nREGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY.\r\n\r\nASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWIND FIELD OF MANUEL HAS DETACHED FROM THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO ISOLATE THE\r\nSTORM-SCALE CIRCULATION AND WAVE FIELD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.9N 102.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 18.9N 103.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 19.9N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 20.6N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR\r\nDENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND\r\nEXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS\r\nSHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS...\r\nAND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE\r\nLATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60\r\nKT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE\r\nLEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nBE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nLARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS\r\nMOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nSOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY\r\nTO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE\r\nNORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nWITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nDISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  \r\n\r\nANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF\r\nLANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS\r\nEXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS\r\nA CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nAMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nMANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS\r\nALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD\r\nTOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE\r\nSTRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE\r\nCOAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE\r\nSIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08.  MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE\r\nSTEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST.  THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nTHAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION\r\nREMAINS INTACT.  THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME\r\nMODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA.  HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING\r\nDISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS\r\nSEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL\r\nDISSIPATES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013\r\n \r\nMANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6\r\nHOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM.\r\nTHE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE\r\nMINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO\r\nWHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER\r\nTERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO\r\nPRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND\r\nOFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM\r\nCONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO\r\nOCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE\r\nSYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING...\r\nWHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Manuel","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO\r\nLONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS\r\nWILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY\r\nNEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS\r\nAREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS\r\nOF REGENERATION.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR\r\nSO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND\r\nMUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH \r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER \r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nREMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE\r\nPRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION.  A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL.  THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A\r\nCOUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER\r\nEARLIER TODAY.  MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND OVER WARM WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE\r\nHIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.  AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE\r\nBAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE\r\nPENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING.  MANUEL IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT.  A SLOW\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE\r\nOVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN\r\nWESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE\r\nTYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE MODEST EASTERLY\r\nDOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM MAZATLAN BRINGING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SIERRA\r\nMADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING FEATURES\r\nHAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THE INNER-CORE\r\nCONVECTION WEST OF MAZATLAN HAS BEEN DECREASING. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF T1.0/25 KT FROM SAB...T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...AND A\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT VALUE OF T2.4/34 KT.  \r\n\r\nMANUEL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...OR 315/05 KT.  A\r\nSLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS MANUEL MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED \r\nOVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BY\r\n48-72 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF OF THE COASTS OF\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE STEERING FLOW TO\r\nALSO WEAKEN. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO\r\nTHE COLD WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nMANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nWHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C SSTS. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE RUGGED TERRAIN\r\nOF SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER PASSING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA...MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH MANUEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96\r\nHOURS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANUEL COULD PEAK AT A\r\nSLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0300Z 23.0N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 23.4N 108.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 23.9N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 24.3N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 24.6N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 23.9N 111.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Manuel","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013\r\n\r\nMANUEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT RAGGED AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF CURVATURE...AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR\r\nAND WARM SSTS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD RESULT\r\nIN WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER THE MUCH COOLER PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF\r\nTHE PENINSULA...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE THROUGHOUT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/04.\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TONIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER\r\nWAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A\r\nRIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN BY 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS. AS A RESULT...MANUEL WILL SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD\r\nBY 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS AS A WEAK RIDGE\r\nREBUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE\r\nRIGHT DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE\r\nGFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN\r\nMANUEL REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT WITH A MORE GRADUAL BEND IN\r\nTHE MOTION...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THOSE AIDS AT\r\nDAYS 3 AND 4. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/0900Z 23.2N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS\r\nMORNING.  THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT A BAND OF SHOWER AND\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOSELY WRAPS AROUND MUCH OF THE \r\nCIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME\r\nA TROPICAL STORM AGAIN.  THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.  AFTER 72\r\nHOURS...LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANUEL TO WEAKEN AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.   \r\n\r\nTHE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY\r\nNORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER\r\nFORECASTS.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING \r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES\r\nQUITE LARGE...WITH THE HWRF LYING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE...SHOWING\r\nLANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY\r\nOR SO.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS MANUEL BECOMING\r\nSTATIONARY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING WEST AND MOVING OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT\r\nLEAST PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED DEPTH OF MANUEL...SINCE A\r\nDEEPER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  FOR\r\nNOW...THE NHC FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A BEND TO THE WEST AS THE\r\nSYSTEM WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE\r\nFOREAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-09-18 18:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MANUEL\r\nHAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SPECIAL\r\nADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO RAISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST\r\nINTENSITY.  BASED ON SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT.  GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR\r\nAND WARM WATERS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE\r\nINNER CORE INTERACTS WITH LAND.  SINCE THE UPDATED INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MANUEL TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN\r\nIT NEARS THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nMANUEL CONTINUES MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER\r\nFORECAST.  THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nEASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS MANUEL MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS\r\nTHAT NOW TAKES MANUEL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.\r\nADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED IF SOME\r\nOF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE\r\nADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/1800Z 23.6N 107.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013\r\n\r\nTHE INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LASTEST MICROWAVE IMAGES.  A\r\nRAGGED EYE HAS ALSO RECENTLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE STATELLITE\r\nPICTURES.  THE LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB AND 3.4 FROM UW/CIMSS ADT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nTO 60 KT...A LITTLE ABOVE THESE ESTIMATES...BASED ON THE IMPROVED\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  GIVEN THE\r\nCONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER...\r\nMANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT DAY \r\nOR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE INNER CORE IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT\r\nWITH LAND WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING.  SINCE THE NEW NHC\r\nFORECAST SHOWS MANUEL NEARING THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A\r\nHURRICANE...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF\r\nTHE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON A TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. THE\r\nGFS SHOWS LANDFALL IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THE HWRF IS FASTER\r\nTO THE COAST. THE ECMWF TAKES MANUEL TO THE COAST BEFORE IT TURNS\r\nWESTWARD. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD ONCE AGAIN AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MANUEL TURNING WESTWARD AT THE\r\nCOAST...OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE MODELS THAT KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nMEANDERING OFFSHORE.  MODEL TRENDS...HOWEVER...SUGGEST THAT FURTHER\r\nEASTWARD SHIFTS ARE LIKELY.  \r\n \r\nBECAUSE OF THE ANGLE OF APPROACH OF MANUEL TO THE COASTLINE OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO...THERE IS A LARGE UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE AND WHEN\r\nWITHIN THE WARNING AREA THE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL REACH THE\r\nCOAST.  RESIDENTS WITHIN THE ENTIRE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD\r\nPREPARE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 23.9N 108.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 24.5N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 25.0N 108.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 25.3N 108.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 25.4N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 25.4N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Manuel","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 18 2013\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SHOWED A RAGGED EYE. ON THAT BASIS...MANUEL WAS UPGRADED TO A\r\nHURRICANE WITH 65-KNOT WINDS. SINCE THAT TIME...THERE HAS BEEN NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND BECAUSE THE NORTHERN\r\nEYEWALL AND A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION ARE ALREADY INTERACTING\r\nWITH LAND...THE INTENSIFICATION OBSERVED EARLIER HAS ENDED. \r\n \r\nMANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT ABOUT 3\r\nKT. THIS SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH SMALL...HAS BROUGHT THE\r\nCENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nREDUCED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...MANUEL COULD EASILY\r\nDEVIATE A LITTLE BIT TO THE LEFT..AND THE CENTER COULD REMAIN OVER\r\nWATER A LITTLE LONGER. THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE RATE OF\r\nWEAKENING. \r\n\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE IN AS MUCH\r\nDISAGREEMENT AS POSSIBLE. THIS OCCURS...IN GENERAL...WHEN THE\r\nSTEERING FLOW IS NOT WELL ESTABLISHED. THE NHC FORECAST WHICH...IN\r\nFACT...IS ALSO HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...HAS OPTED FOR THE SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nTRACK BRINGING A WEAKENING CYCLONE FATHER INLAND. THIS IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0300Z 24.6N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 24.8N 108.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 25.1N 108.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 25.5N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 25.5N 108.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Manuel","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER A SERIES OF MICROWAVE\r\nPASSES AND RADAR DATA FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAS REMAINED OFFSHORE THUS FAR...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EYEWALL HAS\r\nBEEN OVER LAND FOR SEVERAL HOURS. MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED\r\nSOME TILT TO THE CIRCULATION...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED\r\nA BIT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE\r\nCENTER STILL APPEARS TO BE OFFSHORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 65 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/03. THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nMICROWAVE FIXES SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND\r\nSOUTH THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. WITH WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE STEERING...\r\nTHE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LARGE SPREAD. THE NHC\r\nFORECAST WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY AND SHOW THE CENTER OF MANUEL\r\nMOVING SLOWLY INLAND NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nTHIS GENERAL IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFS...ECMWF...FIM...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF\r\nMANUEL COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND\r\nLINGER OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS...AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE UKMET. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW\r\nIN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nAS MORE OF THE CIRCULATION MOVES OVER LAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. WITH THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWING THE\r\nCYCLONE REMAINING INLAND...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS. IF THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER...THE CIRCULATION COULD PERSIST\r\nLONGER AND WEAKEN SLOWER THAN SHOWN HERE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/0900Z 24.8N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 25.3N 108.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 25.5N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 25.6N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 25.7N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Manuel","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 19 2013\r\n \r\nAN AMSR2 MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 0854 UTC INDICATED THAT THE LOW-\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CENTERS OF MANUAL WERE STILL VERTICALLY ALIGNED...\r\nAND STILL LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\nSINCE THAT TIME...RADAR IMAGES FROM GUASAVE MEXICO SHOW THAT\r\nCENTER CROSSED THE COAST TO THE WEST OF CULIACAN JUST AFTER 1200\r\nUTC...WITH AN ESTIMATED 65-KT INTENSITY.  THE EYE REMAINS FAIRLY\r\nWELL INTACT AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65\r\nKT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM THE RECENT MICROWAVE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT\r\nMANUEL IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND MANUEL\r\nSHOULD MOVE FARTHER INLAND.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND MANUEL\r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER\r\nPORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF SINALOA DURING THE NIGHT.\r\nADDITIONAL RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN PORTIONS\r\nOF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/1500Z 25.0N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 25.4N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 25.9N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 26.5N 107.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Manuel","Adv":22,"Date":"2013-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013\r\n \r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF MANUEL HAS\r\nDEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO\r\n40 KT.  MANUEL WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO SHORTLY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN....\r\nAND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MANUEL DISSIPATES. \r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD\r\nINLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  19/2100Z 25.7N 107.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 26.3N 106.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Manuel","Adv":23,"Date":"2013-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP132013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132013\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT\r\nMANUEL HAS LOST ORGANIZATION AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD AREA\r\nOF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.  \r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD\r\nFARTHER INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nMANUEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 26.2N 106.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS BECOME PERSISTENT AND\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED IN A BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA WELL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT2.0 FROM TAFB AT 1800 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nGENERALLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND\r\nOVER SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THIS SHOULD GIVE\r\nTHE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN AT NEARLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL\r\nRATE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nEXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ASSOCIATION WITH\r\nA LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FORMING OVER THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SO STRONG BY\r\nDAYS 4-5 THAT SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY...PERHAPS EVEN\r\nRESULTING IN DISSIPATION.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS BUT IS A\r\nBIT LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nSINCE THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEWLY FORMED...THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 275/10. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE ON\r\nA WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nAROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA THAT SHIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nLATER IN THE PERIOD...THE AFOREMENTIONED LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH\r\nDIGGING NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST SHOULD CAUSE A BREAK IN THE RIDGE.\r\nIN RESPONSE...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD...SLOW DOWN\r\nCONSIDERABLY...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD AFTER WEAKENING. THE NHC\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH DAY 3\r\nBUT GIVES THE ECMWF MODEL MORE WEIGHT ON DAYS 4-5. THIS TREND IS\r\nBASED ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN DRASTICALLY\r\nAND BECOME MUCH SHALLOWER THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS-BASED MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  06/2100Z 12.9N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 13.2N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 13.5N 122.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 14.1N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 14.9N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 16.0N 126.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 16.5N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 16.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 06 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN INCREASING NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER AND IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES HAVE NUDGED UPWARD...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT\r\n35 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND A\r\nCIRA AMSU ESTIMATE. THIS MAKES THE CYCLONE TROPICAL STORM NARDA.\r\nTHE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE SHEAR\r\nFORECAST TO BECOME QUITE LOW BY 48 HOURS WHILE NARDA REMAINS OVER\r\nWARM WATER. BEYOND 72 HOURS...A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRIER AIR...AND SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER SHOULD\r\nPROMOTE WEAKENING. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNARDA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN AND\r\nSHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING NARDA TO\r\nSLOW DOWN A LITTLE AND TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODELS BECOME\r\nQUITE DIVERGENT IN ABOUT 3 DAYS WHEN THE STORM MOVES INTO A REGION\r\nOF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND RIDGES TO\r\nITS EAST AND WEST. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW NARDA BEING PICKED\r\nUP BY THE TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FIM SHOW THE SYSTEM\r\nSTALLING AND THEN TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nBUILDING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LATTER SOLUTION IS\r\nPREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHOSE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0300Z 13.2N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 13.5N 121.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 14.0N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 14.8N 125.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 15.5N 126.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.1N 127.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 16.4N 128.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 16.7N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS BEEN GETTING MORE\r\nORGANIZED.  A LONG CURVED BAND WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND CONNECTS TO AN INNER RING OF CONVECTION THAT IS\r\nOPEN TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED\r\nTO 40 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nT2.5/35 KT FROM SAB...AS WELL AS ADT AND AMSU ESTIMATES NEAR 40 KT. \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR IS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 10 KT\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS NARDA MOVES BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  OCEAN WATERS ARE PLENTY WARM AT AROUND 28C...AND THE\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE FAVORS CONTINUED STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT\r\n2 TO 3 DAYS.  GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nGENERALLY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL MODELS...WHICH LIE AT THE UPPER\r\nRANGE OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN\r\nINDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR SHOULD\r\nCAUSE NARDA TO WEAKEN BY DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12 KT.  NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON THIS TRAJECTORY\r\nFOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE STEERING PATTERN\r\nIS FORECAST TO COLLAPSE DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT\r\nWILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE U.S. WEST COAST...CAUSING\r\nNARDA TO SLOW TO A CRAWL BEGINNING IN 72 HOURS AND LASTING THROUGH\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THERE IS SOME SIGNIFICANT SPREAD\r\nAMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE GFS MAINTAINS A\r\nSTRONGER CYCLONE THAT GETS PULLED NORTHWARD BY THE AMPLIFYING\r\nTROUGH WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM BEING ADVECTED MORE\r\nQUICKLY TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW MOTION BETWEEN\r\nDAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THIS SOLUTION IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE NOAA FIM MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/0900Z 13.2N 120.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 13.6N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 14.2N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 15.0N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 15.5N 127.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 15.7N 129.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 15.8N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 15.9N 130.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013\r\n \r\nNARDA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING...WITH A LONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND\r\nWRAPPING AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A\r\nPOSSIBLE PARTIAL EYEWALL BUT WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW-\r\nAND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC ARE\r\n45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON SOME\r\nFURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE HIGHER OF\r\nTHE TWO DVORAK ESTIMATES IS SELECTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nRECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13.\r\nNARDA SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE\r\nOF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST IN A FEW\r\nDAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE\r\nECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM SUCCUMBING TO SHEAR AND TURNING\r\nWESTWARD SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE GFS\r\nPREDICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND\r\nTURNING WESTWARD. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT\r\nTO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL NORTHWARD RELOCATION AND TO BE CLOSER TO\r\nTHE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ASSUMES A DEEPER CYCLONE THAN\r\nFORECAST BY THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nNARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PASSING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nAXIS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW\r\nNARDA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE SOON.  IN ABOUT TWO\r\nDAYS...WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD BECOME EVEN\r\nSTRONGER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE NARDA TRAVERSES\r\nCOOLER WATERS.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAY 4...AND\r\nNARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON CURRENT\r\nTRENDS AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM.  WHILE\r\nTHE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS UNCHANGED AT LONG RANGE...IT IS VERY\r\nSENSITIVE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A DEEPER/STRONGER CYCLONE\r\nLIKELY MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR\r\nSOONER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/1500Z 14.0N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 14.4N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 15.1N 126.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 15.6N 127.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 16.1N 128.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 16.5N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 16.7N 130.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...NARDA APPEARS\r\nTO HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A 1625 UTC\r\nSSMI/S PASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nCHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nHAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIURNAL\r\nCONVECTIVE MINIMUM. SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS NOT BEEN DEGRADED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 55 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE FIXES DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT...AND MAKE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT\r\n285/13. NARDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A\r\nSLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT NEARS\r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM\r\nMEXICO.  AFTER THAT...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE\r\nGUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT AN\r\nAMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL HAVE LESS\r\nEFFECT ON NARDA WHILE IT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMES A\r\nSHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nTO THE LEFT AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS MUCH FASTER LATER IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n\r\nNARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES WHILE IT PASSES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  EXCEPT FOR THE PROXIMITY\r\nOF A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LURKING TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST...THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nNARDA TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  AFTER A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE U.S.\r\nWEST COAST TROUGH AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING...\r\nWITH THE SHEAR BECOMING QUITE STRONG AND LIKELY CAUSING NARDA TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM...BUT HIGHER THAN THE\r\nREGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 14.4N 123.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 14.8N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 15.4N 127.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 15.8N 128.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 16.0N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013\r\n \r\nCOMPARED TO 12 HOUR AGO...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NARDA LOOKS\r\nSOMEWHAT DISHEVELED. HOWEVER...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS\r\nPERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A\r\nT3.5/55 KT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE\r\nINTENSITY STEADY AT 55 KT. DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE.\r\nHOWEVER...UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/10 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT NEARS\r\nA WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 130W. AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE IS\r\nFORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD\r\nBACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NARDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH FORCE\r\nTHE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nNARDA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C\r\nSSTS IN 12-18 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO\r\nLESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NARDA TO MAKE ONE\r\nMORE INTENSIFICATION EFFORT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT CAN MIX OUT\r\nTHE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DESK THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INGESTED\r\nTODAY. BY 36-48 HOURS...NARDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR SHOULD GENERATE EVEN GREATER WEAKENING...AND NARDA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE\r\nSHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT\r\nGUIDANCE THERAFTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0300Z 14.6N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 15.5N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 15.8N 129.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 15.9N 130.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 16.0N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 15.9N 134.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF NARDA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL\r\n55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM SAB HAS\r\nFALLEN TO 35 KT.  IN ADDITION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON\r\nESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE AROUND 45 KT.  BASED\r\nON THESE NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT...BUT\r\nTHIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nA SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS REQUIRED IN THIS\r\nADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR\r\nANOTHER 36 HOURS...NARDA APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT DUE TO A\r\nMARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  AS THE STORM CONTINUES\r\nWESTWARD...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE\r\nAIR MASS...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HAVE\r\nDECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY.  IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NARDA\r\nIN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO\r\nDECOUPLE.  AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER SHOWS ANY\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS AN\r\nINTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nREMAINS LOW...BUT THEN SHOWS RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TO REMNANT\r\nLOW STATUS BY DAY 4.\r\n\r\nNARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND\r\nITS CURRENT MOTION IS 290/11 KT.  A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS\r\nFORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...LEAVING NARDA IN A COL REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH\r\nAND BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST.  THE\r\nLACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD BY 48 AND 72 HOURS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...NARDA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD\r\nACCELERATE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/0900Z 15.3N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 15.7N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 16.1N 128.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 16.3N 129.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 16.3N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE\r\nNORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE\r\nINTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION HAS ALSO DECREASED THIS\r\nMORNING...AND OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY\r\nFALLEN.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT... WHICH IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nTHE UNEXPECTED WEAKENING OF NARDA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS APPEARS\r\nTO BE THE RESULT OF AN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR...AND\r\nINTO AN AREA OF INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE NARDA TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...\r\nAND THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nNARDA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT.\r\nTHE STORM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A\r\nLARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF\r\nTHE UNITED STATES.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD BEGIN MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST AS\r\nIT IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/1500Z 15.6N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 16.1N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 16.3N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 16.4N 129.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 16.4N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 16.3N 131.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 133.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1200Z 15.5N 135.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Narda","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013\r\n \r\nNARDA IS QUICKLY ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING NADA.  SATELLITE PICTURES\r\nSHOW AN EXPOSED SWIRL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DROPPING...AND\r\nSUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF ABOUT 35 KT...WHICH COULD BE\r\nGENEROUS.  DRY AIR ALOFT...INCREASING WIND SHEAR...AND MARGINAL\r\nSSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NARDA.  THE NHC WIND FORECAST\r\nIS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF\r\nIT BECOMING A REMNANT LOW HAS BEEN ADVANCED SIGNIFICANTLY GIVEN\r\nRECENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/11.  THE STORM\r\nSHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY TOMORROW AS IT BECOMES MORE STEERED\r\nBY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES.  THE BIGGEST FORECAST DIFFERENCE IS IN HOW\r\nMUCH IT SLOWS DOWN BY EITHER BECOMING ENTRAINED WITHIN THE\r\nITCZ...LIKE THE ECMWF FORECAST...OR STAYING SEPARATE...LIKE THE GFS\r\nSOLUTION.  THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AND FARTHER\r\nSOUTH...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 16.6N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.7N 129.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 16.6N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 16.4N 130.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Narda","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013\r\n \r\nNARDA IS BARELY HANGING ON TO ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nLAST CLUSTER OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DISSIPATED A FEW HOURS\r\nAGO...AND LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES THE CONVECTION-FREE CIRCULATION\r\nMOVING INTO A STRATOCUMULUS FIELD. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nCONTINUE TO DECREASE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE\r\n30 KT...WHICH COULD BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH MOVING OVER MARGINALLY\r\nWARM WATERS...NARDA IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR WHILE IT SIMULTANEOUSLY MOVES INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS. IF NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION RETURNS\r\nSOON...NARDA IS LIKELY TO BE DECLARED A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR\r\nLESS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...295/10. NOW THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION OF NARDA HAS BECOME SHALLOW...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTARD\r\nIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADES UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0300Z 16.9N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 17.1N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 129.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 16.7N 130.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 16.4N 131.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 15.6N 132.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Narda","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013\r\n \r\nA BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION\r\nOF NARDA DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THIS SMALL\r\nAREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nMAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A BIT LONGER.  RECENT ASCAT\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE AROUND 30 KT.  NARDA IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS\r\nAND WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE \r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN...AND\r\nNARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS\r\nMORNING AND DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES AND THE ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT NARDA HAS\r\nSLOWED DOWN AND TURNED WESTWARD.  THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD TURN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/0900Z 16.8N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 16.8N 128.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 16.3N 129.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 15.9N 130.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 14.8N 133.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Narda","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013\r\n\r\nA LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO\r\nFALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nBECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD\r\nCONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING.  NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE\r\nTO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nNARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nLATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Narda","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013\r\n \r\nNARDA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR\r\nAND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND IS THUS CLINGING TO TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STATUS FOR NOW.  ALSO...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES\r\nTHAT NARDA HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED\r\nAND THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 30 KT.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A STABLE AIR MASS AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT\r\nINDICATES INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM... WEAKENING AND\r\nDEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW ARE FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT\r\nIT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nSTATIONARY.  NARDA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...ARE LIKELY TO SOON BEGIN\r\nMOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADEWIND FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT\r\nGIVEN BY THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  09/2100Z 16.9N 128.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 16.1N 129.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.1N 132.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Narda","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013\r\n\r\nNARDA CONTINUES TO GENEATE DEEP CONVECTION IN A SMALL BAND TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SCATTEROMETER OVERPASSES 6-9 HOURS AGO\r\nINDICATED 30-35 KT WINDS WEST OF THE CENTER...AND THE MOST RECENT\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS 30 KT.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  WHILE THE FORECAST\r\nTRACK TAKES THE CENTER OVER INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE\r\nNARDA TO WEAKEN.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nNARDA NOW APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 245/2.  A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nIS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 16.2N 129.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.7N 130.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.1N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 14.7N 132.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Narda","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND NARDA CONTINUES TO\r\nCLING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR\r\nAND DRY AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NARDA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW LATER\r\nTODAY...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGERY...BUT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 240/02...AND A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGH DISSIPATION AS NARDA IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nTRADE WIND FLOW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/0900Z 16.4N 128.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 16.1N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.6N 130.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 14.5N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Narda","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP142013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 10 2013\r\n \r\nNARDA HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAS DEGENERATED INTO A\r\nREMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE\r\nASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPORADIC AND LESS PERSISTENT.\r\nALSO...THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW WHAT WOULD BE\r\nEXPECTED FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW COULD STILL OCCASIONALLY\r\nGENERATE A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE\r\nSYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF HIGH SHEAR AND STABLE\r\nAIR...IT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO WHILE IT DRIFTS\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/1500Z 16.3N 129.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 12 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED STRONG\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n30 KT FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET\r\nAT 30 KT...AND THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/10.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS CURRENTLY BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST AND AN\r\nAREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST THAT A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nNEAR 21N 124W...SHOULD WEAKEN THE RIDGE AND ALLOW THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND START TO RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART\r\nAFTER 36-48 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER MOVING VERY SLOWLY\r\nNEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 24 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST WITH A DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED.  THE FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD\r\nALLOW CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nAND ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nWEAKENING...WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nAFTER 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BEFORE REACHING COLDER\r\nWATER.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY DO NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON\r\nSUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.1N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 17.4N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 19.4N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 21.1N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 22.4N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 25.5N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0000Z 26.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER\r\nESTABLISHED...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT\r\nELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS AROUND 0500 UTC\r\nSHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 35 TO 40 KT RANGE...AND ON THAT BASIS\r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...MAKING THE CYCLONE\r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE. THIS INITIAL WIND SPEED ESTIMATE IS ALSO IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. \r\n\r\nOCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nAND OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATER FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS...THE STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO AN\r\nATMOSPHERE OF QUITE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER AIR.\r\nTHESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...\r\nAND OCTAVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 11 KT ON THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OCTAVE...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...THE SHALLOW SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER\r\nWHEN IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT REQUIRE ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR\r\nTHE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED\r\nFOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA IF THE CYCLONE GETS STRONGER THAN\r\nPREDICTED.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/0900Z 17.1N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 18.6N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 20.5N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 22.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 23.2N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 24.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 25.5N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR AND\r\nAROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER OF OCTAVE. IN ADDITION...THE PRESSURE\r\nAT SOCORRO ISLAND...LOCATED ABOUT 80 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL\r\nSTORM...FELL TO AS LOW AS 1001.4 MB AROUND 11Z...WHICH INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE CYCLONE IS BELOW 1000 MB. BASED ON\r\nPRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIPS AND A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF\r\nT3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/12 KT. THE DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD COVER HAS ALLOWED FOR THE CENTER OF OCTAVE TO BE BETTER\r\nDETERMINED...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A MORE WESTWARD LOCATION. OTHER\r\nTHAN THAT...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY TRACK OR REASONING. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE\r\nAROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 22N FROM CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO INTO THE EXTREME EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD ON MONDAY...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST ON\r\nTUESDAY. AS OCTAVE WEAKENS...THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY\r\nSHALLOW AND SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER WHEN IT APPROACHES THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE AND THE\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL FSSE.\r\n \r\nANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD RESULT IN SOME\r\nSLIGHT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS OVER\r\nRELATIVELY WARM WATER AND IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS.\r\nHOWEVER...THE RECENT INGESTION OF COOLER AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IN\r\nTHE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING\r\nFROM OCCURRING FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...OCTAVE\r\nWILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...WHICH SHOULD\r\nINDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING BY MONDAY. ON TUESDAY...STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30 KT SHOULD STRIP AWAY ANY\r\nREMAINING CONVECTION...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nCONSENSUS INTENSITY MODEL ICON.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/1500Z 18.3N 112.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 19.9N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 21.7N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 23.3N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 24.3N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 25.1N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 26.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...OUTER BAND CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WHILE\r\nINNER CORE CONVECTION HAS MADE SOMEWHAT OF A COMEBACK.  THE INNER\r\nCORE CONVECTION NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL RING OF CONVECTION ABOUT\r\n100 NMI IN DIAMETER WITH A 25 NMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED\r\nNEARLY IN THE CENTER OF THE CONVECTIVE RING.  HOWEVER...SEVERAL\r\nPASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL EYE\r\nFEATURE IS TILTED MORE THAN 20 NMI TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE JUMPED SHARPLY TO\r\nT4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...BUT A 1639Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS ONLY REVEALED 35-40 KT\r\nWINDS WITHIN 20 NMI EAST OF THE CENTER...AND A 1725Z ASCAT-A\r\nOVERPASS ONLY INDICATED 45 KT IN THE EASTERN EYEWALL. THIS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT OCTAVE MIGHT NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE SATELLITE SIGNATURES\r\nINDICATE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE ESTIMATES AND IS\r\nGENEROUSLY SET TO 55 KT. UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES INDICATE THAT\r\nOCTAVE IS EXPERIENCING 15-20 KT OF SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR THAT\r\nIS UNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE 6 KT OF 850-200 MB SHEAR...\r\nWHICH EXPLAINS THE NORTHWARD TILT OF THE EYE FEATURE. SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR\r\nSO...BUT THE TILTED EYE FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE RATHER COMPACT\r\nSIZE OF THE CYCLONE...MEANS THE OCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN ONCE\r\nIT MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 18-24 HOURS. AFTER\r\nTHAT...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD DECOUPLE THE\r\nLOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS...RESULTING IN OCTAVE BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/11 KT. OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SLOW\r\nDOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD BY MONDAY AND TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST\r\nAND NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY...A VERTICALLY SHALLOW AND\r\nWEAK OCTAVE COULD BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT APPROACHES THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND COMPLETELY DECOUPLES.\r\nTHE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS AND THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE\r\nPLUME...HOWEVER...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND SPREAD\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS BAJA AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN U.S.  THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE TCVE AND FSSE\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE RECENT STRENGTHENING OF OCTAVE...THE CURRENT TRACK\r\nAND INTENSITY FORECASTS...PLUS AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...DOES\r\nNOT WARRANT ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  13/2100Z 19.2N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 20.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 23.7N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 24.6N 113.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 25.1N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 13 2013\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF OCTAVE HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION SINCE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY. THE CLOUD PATTERN IS STARTING TO TRANSITION INTO\r\nA SHEAR PATTERN...WITH LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEPEST CONVECTION. A 0006 UTC SSMI/S PASS ALSO SUGGESTED AN EAST-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TILT OF THE VORTEX WITH HEIGHT...PRESUMABLY DUE TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED SINCE 1800 UTC...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS ALREADY REACHED THE 26C-\r\nISOTHERM AND SHOULD MOVE OVER SHARPLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE COOLING SEA SURFACE UNDERNEATH THE CYCLONE...\r\nALONG WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SHEAR IN 24 HOURS...SHOULD LEAD TO\r\nSLOW WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE BULK OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...WITH OCTAVE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW\r\nIN 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE SOON AFTER THAT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nOCTAVE HAS MAINTAINED ABOUT THE SAME MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX\r\nHOURS...335/13.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHILE IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THE WEAKENING\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE TO\r\nDECELERATE WHEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SEPARATE FROM\r\nONE ANOTHER...LEAVING THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CENTER NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND MUCH FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST\r\nBUT NOT AS FAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF OCTAVE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0300Z 20.6N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 22.3N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 23.9N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 25.0N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 25.8N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nOCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH. ALTHOUGH THE STORM\r\nHAS MORE OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE THAT IT DID EARLIER...IT STILL IS\r\nPRODUCING A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0430 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS NEAR 50 KT...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 45 TO 65 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE DATA...THE INITIAL WIND\r\nSPEED ESTIMATE REMAINS 55 KT. OCTAVE HAS NOW CROSSED THE 26C\r\nISOTHERM AND IS MOVING INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRIER AIR. THESE EXPECTED HOSTILE\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE OCTAVE TO STEADILY WEAKEN...AND THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BAJA\r\nPENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. \r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 12 KT. A\r\nSLOWER NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR LATER TODAY WHILE\r\nOCTAVE ROUNDS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ON\r\nTUESDAY...THE WEAK SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN EVEN FURTHER AND\r\nTURN NORTHEASTWARD IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS RUN.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS DO NOT WARRANT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA.  HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS STORM. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE\r\nIS BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE FOR A DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 21.6N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 23.2N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 24.8N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 25.9N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 26.5N 112.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11 KT. OCTAVE IS ON OR JUST NORTH\r\nOF THE LATITUDE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS\r\nEAST. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS\r\nEXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ON\r\nTUESDAY AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND A BROAD\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT REMAINS\r\nALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nOCTAVE IS MOVING OVER A NARROW TONGUE OF COLD WATER LESS THAN 24C...\r\nAND DEEP CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME LESS ORGANIZED AS A\r\nRESULT. AVERAGE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO\r\n45-50 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT.\r\nOCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD AS IT REMAINS OVER SUB-24C SSTS AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN 30 KT BY 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL ALSO BE PASSING CLOSE ENOUGH TO A TIGHT SST GRADIENT\r\nAND WARMER WATER JUST TO ITS EAST THAT COULD KEEP AN INFLUX OF\r\nMOIST UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH\r\nWOULD HELP MAINTAIN CONVECTION AND TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY A\r\nLITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...SHIP PINX-\r\nWESTERDAM THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nBAJA THIS MORNING HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 31-KT WINDS...INDICATING\r\nTHAT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF THE WIND FIELD IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE IS NOW OCCURRING. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT\r\nTIMING...STRENGTH...AND SIZE OF THE OUTER WINDFIELD OF OCTAVE AT\r\nLANDFALL...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR POTIONS OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\nEVEN IF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE\r\nIMMEDIATE COAST...STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR AT HIGHER\r\nELEVATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\nTHEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nTHE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 22.6N 113.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 24.2N 113.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 25.4N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 26.0N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 26.0N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 015/08 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE THE\r\nANTICIPATED TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND A GRADUAL TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS OCTAVE\r\nCOMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSITUATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT ONCE AGAIN...AND LIES\r\nIN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE NOW A\r\nCONSENSUS T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. TWO PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES\r\nONLY CAUGHT THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND SHOWED 40-KT WIND SPEEDS IN\r\nTHAT PART OF THE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH\r\nTHE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SUB-24C\r\nSSTS AND SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF MORE THAN\r\n30 KT BY 12 HOURS. SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE APPEARS TO HAVE HELP MAINTAIN AN INFLUX OF MOIST\r\nUNSTABLE AIR THAT HAS BEEN FEEDING THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...THAT FAVORABLE CONNECTION SHOULD CEASE BY 24\r\nHOURS...IF NOT SOONER...WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A RAPID DEMISE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...AND OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT\r\nLOW BY 36 HOURS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\nIF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOT OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE\r\nCOAST...STRONGER WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD\r\nLEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN. THEREFORE...INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA\r\nAND MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED\r\nBY THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 24.1N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 25.1N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 25.8N 112.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 26.2N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 26.0N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Octave","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nRECENT GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER OF OCTAVE IS DECOUPLING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO\r\nSTRONG SHEAR AND COOL WATERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE DVORAK FINAL-T AND\r\nCI-NUMBERS FROM SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CENTER\r\nINTERACTS WITH LAND AND THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. OCTAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 12 HOURS...AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24\r\nHOURS. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF OCTAVE IS A LITTLE EAST\r\nOF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A\r\nSOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 025/10. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD STEER THE\r\nCYCLONE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CENTER REACHES\r\nLAND...WITH LITTLE OR NO MOTION EXPECTED AFTER THAT TIME AS THE\r\nCIRCULATION WEAKENS OVER THE TERRAIN OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS AGAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHALLOW BAM THROUGH LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OCTAVE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD\r\nLEAD TO FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN. INTERESTS ACROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY\r\nTHE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 25.1N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 25.9N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 26.1N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 26.3N 111.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Octave","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME DETACHED\r\nFROM THE CONVECTION. IN FACT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MEXICO\r\nINDICATE THAT CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS STILL\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO. THE STRONG WIND SHEAR AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE TERRAIN\r\nWILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE BY\r\nWEDNESDAY.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025 DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS.\r\nGIVEN THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM...LITTLE\r\nMOTION OR PERHAPS A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 25.5N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 26.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 26.5N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Octave","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF\r\nOCTAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SYSTEM HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT 5 HOURS...AND TWO ASCAT\r\nSCATTEROMETER PASSES THAT CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nINDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE STILL CONTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE\r\nWINDS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND ALSO TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...\r\nAN INTENSITY OF 30 KT AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS ARE BEING\r\nMAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/04 KT. OCTAVE HAS MADE AN\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD JOG ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER...MOST OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT OCTAVE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE\r\nNEXT 12 HOURS...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DECOUPLING FROM THE\r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DURING THAT TIME DUE TO STRONG\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR OF AT LEAST 35 KT. THE RESULT IS THAT\r\nOCTAVE SHOULD QUICKLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM\r\nLATER TODAY...AND MEANDER AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE GULF OF\r\nCALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 25.4N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 26.0N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 26.7N 109.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Octave","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP152013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013\r\n \r\nOCTAVE HAS MOVED MUCH FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...AND THE\r\nCENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE ROUGH\r\nTERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS...COUPLED WITH\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR OF 40 KT...HAS WEAKENED AND DISPLACED THE REMAINING\r\nMODERATE CONVECTION MORE THAN 150 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS A\r\nRESULT...OCTAVE NO LONGER MEETS THE CRITERIA OF A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS FINALLY SEPARATED FROM THE MID- AND\r\nUPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. THE LATTER FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED\r\nMOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND\r\nTHE UNITED STATES SOUTHERN PLAINS...ENHANCING RAINFALL ACROSS THOSE\r\nREGIONS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THOSE AREAS\r\nSHOULD MONITOR RAINFALL STATEMENTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE\r\nOFFICE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 26.9N 109.4W   20 KT  25 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nLOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE\r\nCLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...A COUPLE OF ASCAT\r\nPASSES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THE RESEARCH VESSEL MELVILLE...\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF 35 KT.  AS A\r\nRESULT...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL STORM\r\nPRISCILLA...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON IN THE\r\nEASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.   \r\n\r\nOVERNIGHT SATELLITE FIXES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER RATE THAN WAS OBSERVED DURING THE\r\nDAY YESTERDAY...HOWEVER THE INITIAL MOTION OF 015/10 KT IS A BIT\r\nMORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.  PRISCILLA SHOULD MOVE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES\r\nAROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO. IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHICH SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  AS PRISCILLA\r\nWEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER CYCLONE LATER IN THE PERIOD...IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING\r\nFLOW WELL WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nPRISCILLA IS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS.  EAST-NORTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...BUT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.\r\nALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE\r\nIN 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE APPROACHING COOL WATERS AND\r\nA MORE STABLE AIRMASS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING \r\nBY 48 HOURS...AND PRISCILLA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN 3 TO 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/0900Z 14.3N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 15.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.0N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.1N 115.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.2N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 21.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF PRISCILLA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nEDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nARE BETWEEN 30-35 KT...THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS BETWEEN\r\n35-40 KT...AND THE MOST RECENT OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATE IS T2.9/43\r\nKT. THE LATTER TWO ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.\r\n \r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DUE TO 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST TO RELAX IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO...AND PRISCILLA SHOULD\r\nREMAIN OVER WATER OF AT LEAST 26C THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT THE SAME\r\nTIME...HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD BE LIMITED BY\r\nINGESTION OF DRIER AIR WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTHWARD.  BY DAY\r\n3...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COLDER WATER...AND MORE\r\nSTABLE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL INDUCE QUICK WEAKENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE FOR THIS FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS\r\nCYCLE...AND IN FACT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BRING PRISCILLA NEAR\r\nOR AT HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS.\r\n \r\nPRISCILLA HAS TURNED NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER EASTERN MEXICO...AND ITS\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 010/9 KT.  THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nMOVING NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE ALONG 120W FILLS IN AND FORCES PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD.  A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE OCCURRED ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE...WHICH REQUIRED A FAIRLY\r\nSIZEABLE WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AS\r\nWELL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UPDATED NHC FORECAST STILL LIES\r\nEAST OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...SO\r\nAN ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/1500Z 15.2N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 16.2N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 17.3N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 18.2N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 19.0N 118.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 119.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 21.0N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z 20.5N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT\r\nAS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...AND IT REMAINS LOCATED ALONG\r\nTHE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A 1706 UTC ASCAT PASS\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MAY HAVE\r\nSHRUNK SINCE LAST NIGHT...BUT A FEW VECTORS WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nQUADRANT APPEAR TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO EKE OUT AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT. \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nAFFECT PRISCILLA FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...BUT THEN SHOULD\r\nDECREASE TO POSSIBLY SUPPORT SOME STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...\r\nPRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO\r\nITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTHWEST...SO THE POOR THERMODYNAMIC\r\nENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH MAY BE THE STRONGEST LIMITING FACTOR FOR\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR AND COLDER WATER ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PRISCILLA BY DAY\r\n3...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEREFORE WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY\r\n4...IF NOT SOONER.  THE 12Z GFDL AND HWRF RUNS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nWEAKER THAN THE 06Z RUNS...AND NO LONGER SHOW PRISCILLA REACHING\r\nNEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD ON THIS CYCLE.\r\n\r\nPRISCILLA IS SLOWING DOWN AND HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/8 KT. \r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WHICH CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS MEXICO IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS TROPICAL\r\nSTORM OCTAVE DISSIPATES NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE\r\nRIDGE WILL FORCE PRISCILLA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  AS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL...HAS AGAIN\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD.  THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO SHIFTED\r\nIN THAT DIRECTION...BUT THE ADJUSTMENT IS NOT AS BIG AS WHAT WAS\r\nNEEDED EARLIER THIS MORNING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.7N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.6N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 17.3N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 18.0N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 18.8N 119.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 19.8N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 19.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z 18.3N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 14 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME ORGANIZATION DURING THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NEW BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER...THE OVERALL\r\nCONVECTIVE MASS HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED\r\nSOME SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35\r\nKT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS DUE NORTH OR 360/07. THE CYCLONE HAS\r\nBEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST\r\nTO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF PRISCILLA SOON...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST ONCE THE SYSTEM DECOUPLES AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LEFT AND\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nMODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN ABOUT 12 HOURS\r\nWHILE PRISCILLA MOVES OVER WARM BUT SLOWLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES. DESPITE THE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nAHEAD...PRISCILLA IS ALREADY INGESTING MORE AND MORE OF A\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS FIELD INTO ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE NORTH. THIS\r\nNEGATIVE FACTOR WOULD LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY SHORT-TERM\r\nINTENSIFICATION. WEAKENING LIKELY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS DUE TO A\r\nSUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN WESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER WATERS. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED RELATIVE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nIS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE BULK OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. DISSIPATION\r\nIS NOW SHOWN SOONER...BY 96 HOURS...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL\r\nMODEL SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 16.2N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 16.9N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 17.6N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 18.4N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 19.2N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PRISCILLA HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY\r\nAND SEPARATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS.  THE LATEST DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM\r\nTAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...WHICH\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN\r\nPLAGUING PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TODAY BUT AT THE SAME\r\nTIME THE CYCLONE WILL BE INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  THESE UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE\r\nPRISCILLA TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN...AND PRISCILLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME\r\nA REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDOES NOT RETURN LATER TODAY...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A REMNANT\r\nLOW MUCH SOONER. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/7 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT PRISCILLA WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD VERY SOON AS THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE \r\nNORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED BY\r\nWEDNESDAY AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH SOME DECREASE IS FORWARD\r\nSPEED SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK IS\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...DUE TO A LITTLE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.1N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.7N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 18.5N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 19.3N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 19.8N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013\r\n \r\nA BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES RANGE BETWEEN 30-35 KT AND SUPPORT MAINTAINING PRISCILLA\r\nAS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM.  DEEP-LAYER EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nDECREASING TO BELOW 10 KT...BUT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT\r\nPRISCILLA CONTINUES TO INGEST MORE STABLE AIR TO ITS NORTHWEST.\r\nSINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE FOR ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...PRISCILLA SHOULD EITHER MAINTAIN MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DURING THAT TIME.  INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD THEN CAUSE PRISCILLA\r\nTO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nPRISCILLA APPEARS TO BE TURNING AND NOW HAS AN ESTIMATED INITIAL\r\nMOTION OF 330/6 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nWHILE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO.  THE\r\nUPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nTVCE AND NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/1500Z 17.4N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 17.9N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 18.6N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 19.2N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 19.7N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 19.6N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013\r\n \r\nPRISCILLA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH EACH\r\nA LITTLE BIT SMALLER IN COVERAGE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  DVORAK\r\nDATA-T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE CYCLONE\r\nIS BEING INITIALIZED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION.  NOW THAT THE DEEP-\r\nLAYER SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS A LITTLE BIT\r\nLESS EXPOSED FROM THIS LATEST ROUND OF CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DRIER\r\nAND MORE STABLE AIR SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO\r\nHAMPER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  PRISCILLA IS FORECAST\r\nTO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COLDER WATER...AND THEN DISSIPATE BY 96\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nPRISCILLA HAS MADE A HARD LEFT TURN AND IS NOW MOVING 300/7 KT.\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER IT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.  THE TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT WESTWARD...WITH\r\nTHE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LYING ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...SO THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION AS WELL. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/2100Z 17.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 18.1N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 18.7N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 19.2N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 19.4N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 18.7N 123.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 15 2013\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nOF THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA. THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS\r\nNOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB. PRISCILLA WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN A DRY ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. THESE FACTORS...IN COMBINATION WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nSHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN PRISCILLA BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS\r\nAND DISSIPATING AFTER 72 HOURS. \r\n\r\nBASED ON A 2315Z AMSU PASS...THE CENTER OF PRISCILLA WAS LOCATED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 290/06. PRISCILLA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS PRISCILLA\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND\r\nFLOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. MUCH OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...OR SOUTH...OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...AND THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER AFTER\r\n24 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FOLLOWING THOSE\r\nTRENDS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF FORECAST...BUT SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE GFS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0300Z 17.7N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 18.1N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 18.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 19.0N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 18.8N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013\r\n \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO PULSE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.\r\nHOWEVER...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER\r\nTHE PAST 12H...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED AT 30\r\nKT...WHICH IS AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT\r\nFROM UW-CIMSS ADT...30 KT FROM TAFB...AND 25 KT FROM SAB.\r\n \r\nPASSIVE MICROWAVE FIXES INDICATE THAT PRISCILLA IS STILL MOVING AT\r\n290/06 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24H OR SO DUE TO A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH\r\nAND EAST OF PRISCILLA. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND BECOMES\r\nA VERTICALLY SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS\r\nFORECAST BY 36H...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AT 48H\r\nAND BEYOND AS THE WEAKENED SYSTEM GETS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nNORTHEASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.\r\n \r\nTHE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 12-18H WHILE\r\nPRISCILLA REMAINS OVER MARGINALLY WARM SSTS. HOWEVER...BY 24H AND\r\nBEYOND...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO A REGION OF MODERATE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR AND DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR...WHILE ALSO\r\nMOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS. THIS COMBINATION OF UNFAVORABLE\r\nCONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE PRISCILLA TO WEAKEN AND DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 36H AND DISSIPATE AFTER 72H...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/0900Z 17.9N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 18.6N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 18.7N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 18.5N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 17.7N 125.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 16 2013\r\n \r\nA SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO BANDING FEATURES\r\nIS OCCURRING OVER AND TO THE WEST OF PRISCILLA.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN UNCHANGED.  A 0534Z\r\nASCAT PASS WAS A BULLSEYE PROVIDING BOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF\r\nPRISCILLA AND ALSO SHOWING MULTIPLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS.  THE\r\nINTENSITY ANALYSIS REMAINS 30 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE MAINLY DUE TO IT\r\nTRAVERSING LUKEWARM 26-27C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY\r\nAIR...AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS BEEN QUITE LOW.  ALONG ITS\r\nPROJECTED PATH...HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME MUCH\r\nSTRONGER OUT OF THE WEST STARTING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE SSTS\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY COOL.  THUS GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST AS WELL AS A TRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL\r\nREMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS SCENARIO IS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT DEPICTED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nPRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 7\r\nKT...PRIMARILY THROUGH THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  AS THE CYCLONE COMPLETELY\r\nLOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED ALONG IN THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE\r\nTVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THAT\r\nINDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/1500Z 18.1N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 18.4N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 18.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 18.5N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 18.4N 124.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 18.0N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013\r\n \r\nTHE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN PRISCILLA HAS VANISHED...LEAVING\r\nBEHIND ONLY A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL SWIRL OVERLAID BY MID-LEVEL\r\nDEBRIS CLOUDINESS. A TIMELY 1717Z ASCAT-B PASS HELPED TO PROVIDE\r\nBOTH AN ACCURATE POSITION OF PRISCILLA AND ALSO TO SHOW PEAK\r\nSURFACE WINDS OF 20-25 KT. THE INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS REDUCED TO 25\r\nKT.\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTIVE STRUGGLES OF PRISCILLA ARE DUE TO IT TRAVERSING\r\nLUKEWARM 26C WATER AND BEING EMBEDDED IN FAIRLY DRY AIR. ALONG ITS\r\nPROJECTED PATH...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME STRONG OUT OF THE\r\nWEST SHORTLY...AND THE SSTS SHOULD GRADUALLY COOL. THUS A\r\nTRANSITION TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW IS INDICATED IN A DAY.\r\nHOWEVER...THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT\r\nRE-EMERGE SOON.\r\n \r\nPRISCILLA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 8 KT. AS THE\r\nCYCLONE COMPLETELY LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION...IT WILL BE CARRIED\r\nALONG IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED\r\nUPON THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT\r\nINDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  16/2100Z 18.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 18.7N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 18.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 18.5N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 18.3N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Priscilla","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP162013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PRISCILLA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162013\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 16 2013\r\n\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM PRISCILLA FOR ABOUT\r\n12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...PRISCILLA NO LONGER MEETS THE DEFINITION OF\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IS NOW A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW. GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR EVEN\r\nSOONER. \r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF PRISCILLA HAS LOST SOME DEFINITION DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN\r\n285/06. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SOON TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN\r\nTHE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  17/0300Z 18.7N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 18.8N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 18.7N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 18.4N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 18.0N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-10-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 19 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED\r\nSOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING.  RECENT MICROWAVE AND INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN BANDING AROUND THE CENTER.\r\nBASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.0 FROM TAFB...ADVISORIES ARE BEING\r\nINITIATED ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n30 KT.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF WARM WATER...\r\nA MOIST LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND\r\nSHEAR....SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BRINGS THE CYCLONE\r\nTO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND SO DOES THE NHC\r\nFORECAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...INTERACTION WITH LAND AND SOME DRIER\r\nMID-LEVEL AIR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE COULD CAUSE SOME\r\nWEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE IS\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS IT IS CONTINGENT UPON HOW MUCH THE CYCLONE\r\nINTERACTS WITH LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 KT.\r\nA SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nMAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO ALLOW FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...THERE IS A HIGHER THAN NORMAL AMOUNT OF\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW THE\r\nSYSTEM TURNING NORTHWARD...THEN NORTHEAST AND MAKING LANDFALL ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.  THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...\r\nINCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS...INDICATE THAT THE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN U.S. WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  THIS WOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN\r\nBACK WESTWARD LATER IN THE PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK BRINGS THE\r\nCYCLONE VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...\r\nTHEN SHOWS IT TURNING WESTWARD OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF SOLUTIONS.  \r\n \r\nBASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A\r\nTROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO. \r\nA HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON\r\nSUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD\r\nNORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0300Z 14.0N 100.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 14.5N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 15.2N 101.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 15.8N 101.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 16.1N 101.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 16.7N 101.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 17.1N 101.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 17.0N 103.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-10-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED UP A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF HOURS...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATE THAT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nIMPROVED. BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS...\r\nTHE 17TH NAMED STORM OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON.\r\n\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS SHOULD FAVOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION PRIMARILY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHEN\r\nRAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE. AFTER THAT...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE OCEAN IS WARM...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE A LITTLE BUT\r\nSTILL ALLOWING RAYMOND TO REMAIN A 65-KT HURRICANE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE \r\nCONSENSUS AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODEL PAIR. THERE IS NO SCATTEROMETER\r\nDATA NEARBY TO DETERMINE THE WIND RADII...BUT RAYMOND APPEARS TO BE\r\nA SMALL-SIZE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\nBASED ON IR AND MICROWAVE FIXES...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 315 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS.  A LARGE MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH IS CURRENTLY AMPLIFYING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND THIS\r\nPATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE RAYMON TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nNORTHWARD FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...STEERING CURRENTS\r\nARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND RAYMOND WILL\r\nPROBABLY MOVE VERY LITTLE. BEYOND 4 DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS REBUILD A STRONG RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND THE FLOW AROUND THE\r\nRIDGE WILL STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN COAST. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nTURN WESTWARD. LATEST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTWARD\r\nTURN WILL LIKELY OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND\r\nBEFORE THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...\r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A\r\nHURRICANE MEANDERING NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND BEYOND.   \r\n\r\nHEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS\r\nCOULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/0900Z 14.5N 101.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 15.1N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 15.6N 102.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 16.0N 102.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 16.2N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 16.5N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-10-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER...AND A 1018 UTC TRMM PASS SHOWED SIGNS OF AN INNER\r\nCORE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO\r\n45 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. AN ENVIRONMENT\r\nOF WARM WATER AND LOW SHEAR APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...SOME\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR MAY RESULT IN A LITTLE WEAKENING...BUT\r\nRAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE THROUGH THE END OF THE \r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND AN UPWARD TREND\r\nIN THE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM AT DAYS 4 AND 5. \r\n \r\nTHE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF RAYMOND IS\r\nA LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 315/06. AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER\r\nCENTRAL NORTH AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...RAYMOND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD OR\r\nEVEN A LITTLE EAST OF DUE NORTH. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW\r\nAND ERRATIC MOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...A\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF RAYMOND...WHICH\r\nSHOULD IMPART A STEADIER WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AWAY\r\nFROM THE COAST. WHILE THE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS\r\nOVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES IN THE\r\nTRACK OF RAYMOND...ESPECIALLY HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LITTLE MORE OF A NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IN 24 TO 48 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST TRENDS IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION...BUT REMAINS WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DURING THAT TIME.\r\nWHILE THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF RAYMOND\r\nOFFSHORE...IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE MEANDERING\r\nNEAR THE COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.\r\n \r\nHEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS\r\nCOULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/1500Z 14.9N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 15.4N 102.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 15.9N 102.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 16.4N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-10-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY QUICKLY. THE SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A BAND OF COLD CONVECTIVE\r\nTOPS WRAPPING AROUND THE THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF T3.5\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST BEFORE 1600 UTC\r\nSUPPORTED AN INTENSITY OF 55 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. HOWEVER...AN EYE\r\nFEATURE HAS SINCE BEEN DEVELOPING IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY...AND\r\nTHE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH SOON...AND PEAKS\r\nTHE SYSTEM AT 85 KT FROM 24 THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE\r\nTHAT RAYMOND COULD GET STRONG THAN THIS IF RAPID INTENSIFICATION\r\nCONTINUES. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM THROUGH 36 HOURS\r\nAND NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM AFTER THAT TIME. THIS\r\nFORECAST IS A QUITE A BIT HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS\r\nAIDS...SINCE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS BOTH SHOW WEAKENING AFTER\r\nMOVING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND INLAND.\r\n \r\nA BLEND OF RECENT FIXES AND THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION OF 340/06...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. RAYMOND SHOULD TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER\r\nCENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WILL WEAKEN ON DAYS 2 AND 3...WITH A SLOW AND ERRATIC\r\nMOTION LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. CONSIDERABLE DETAIL DIFFERENCES\r\nREMAIN IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY CONCERNING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER\r\nWILL GET TO THE COAST...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR. THE HWRF\r\nAND GFDL NOW BOTH SHOW THE CYCLONE MOVING INLAND BY 36 HOURS...\r\nWHILE THE GFS CONTINUES TO BRING THE CENTER OF RAYMOND VERY CLOSE\r\nTO THE COAST AROUND THAT TIME. THE NHC TRACK DOES NOT SHOW\r\nLANDFALL...BUT HAS BEEN NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...AND IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE TVCE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS AND THE\r\nLARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS OF THE\r\nTRACK...AND WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND WILL REACH THE COAST...\r\nREMAINS QUITE LOW...AND ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT\r\nFORECASTS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE NEW NHC FORECAST AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF\r\nRAYMOND...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH FROM ACAPULCO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER OF RAYMOND MOVES INLAND...HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS\r\nCOULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 15.6N 101.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 15.9N 101.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 16.3N 101.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 16.6N 101.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 16.8N 101.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 16.5N 102.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 16.0N 104.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-10-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 20 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING AT AN ASTOUNDING RATE SINCE THIS\r\nAFTERNOON.  THE EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES...AND WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR SO THE SMALL EYE HAS CLEARED\r\nAND WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY.  ALTHOUGH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AT\r\n0000 UTC WERE 65 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AN EARLIER CIMSS AMSU\r\nINTENSITY INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 74 KT.  GIVEN THE MUCH\r\nIMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE EARLY THIS EVENING...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...WHICH MIGHT BE CONSERVATIVE. \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED.  THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nNOW CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 12\r\nHOURS...AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. LATER IN THE\r\nFOREAST PERIOD...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND IS LIKELY TO INITIATE\r\nWEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/5 KT.  RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS WHILE A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL UNITED STATES.  IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH LIFTS\r\nOUT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND RAYMOND IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.  THE PRIMARY\r\nDIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO CENTER AROUND HOW\r\nCLOSE RAYMOND WILL GET TO THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WHETHER LANDFALL WILL OCCUR.  THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE RAYMOND TO THE COAST WITHIN 48\r\nHOURS....WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW VERY LITTLE ADDITIONAL\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION.  THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN LIE IN BETWEEN AND\r\nSO DOES THE NHC FORECAST.  IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT ONLY A\r\nSMALL NORTHWARD DEVIATION OF RAYMOND FROM THE NHC FOREAST WOULD\r\nBRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE COAST.  THE UPDATED\r\nNHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND\r\nGFS MODELS.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...RECENT STRENGTHENING...AND POSSIBLE\r\nEXPANSION OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM TECPAN DE\r\nGALEANA TO LAZARO CARDENAS.  HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0300Z 15.9N 102.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 16.3N 102.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 16.6N 101.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 16.8N 101.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 17.0N 101.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 16.7N 103.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 16.2N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 16.0N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW A CIRCULAR AND DISTINCT EYE WITH A SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT\r\n105 KT...FOLLOWING THE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT. THIS MAKES RAYMOND A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...THE FIRST\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC 2013 SEASON. IT IS\r\nINTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THIS CYCLONE HAS EXHIBITED AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nPERIOD OF STRENGTHENING...AS IT WAS ONLY A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM\r\nAT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE HAS COME TO A HALT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS ABOUT 100\r\nN MI SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE STEERING CURRENTS HAVE\r\nCOLLAPSED WITH A TROUGH LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND AND A RIDGE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO STAY WITHIN THESE\r\nWEAK CURRENTS FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...THEREFORE...LITTLE MOTION IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY LATE TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE\r\nCURRENTLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME THE\r\nMORE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING RAYMOND TO MOVE WESTWARD\r\nOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE LATEST \r\nGLOBAL MODEL RUNS SHOW A TRACK FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER...KEEPING\r\nTHE CORE OF THE HURRICANE OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN\r\nFACT...GUIDANCE NO LONGER BRINGS THE HURRICANE INLAND AND IF THIS\r\nTREND CONTINUES THE WARNINGS FOR MEXICO COULD BE ALTERED.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY AS THE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM\r\nINTENSITY CHANGES WILL LIKELY BE PRIMARILY CONTROLLED BY EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLES AND INTERNAL DYNAMICS. SLOW WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MUCH OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE\r\nAND HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE\r\nOVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING\r\nLIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/0900Z 16.0N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 16.3N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 16.5N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 16.5N 102.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 16.4N 102.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 16.0N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 15.7N 106.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 15.5N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 21 2013\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. THE\r\nEYE HAS SHRUNK A LITTLE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND IS\r\nSURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS. THE LATEST DVORAK\r\nDATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE T5.5/102 KT...WHICH SUPPORT\r\nAN INTENSITY OF 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR\r\nFAVORABLE FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER...AN \r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO\r\nSHORT-TERM FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO THAT\r\nARE NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...LIKELY DUE TO SOME\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND A TRACK OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM...WHICH IS ON THE HIGH SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND DRIFTED NORTHWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BUT NOW APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AGAIN. LITTLE NET MOTION\r\nIS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STEERING CURRENTS\r\nREMAIN WEAK. IN FACT...THE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE\r\nDURING THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO\r\nBRING RAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE THE LATEST\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE\r\nNHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36\r\nHOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS CERTAINLY\r\nPOSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. AROUND 48 HOURS...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL\r\nBEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC TRACK AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5 IS LARGELY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PART OF THE FORECAST IS ALSO LOWER\r\nTHAN NORMAL...WITH CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nTRACKS.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS\r\nTO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/1500Z 16.3N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 16.5N 102.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 16.5N 102.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 16.4N 102.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 15.5N 107.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 15.5N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013\r\n \r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE\r\nMORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IN FACT...EARLIER MICROWAVE AND\r\nGEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWED A VERY SMALL EYE AROUND 15Z...SO\r\nPERHAPS THE STORM HAS GONE THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACMENT CYCLE\r\nTODAY. DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES AT 18Z WERE T6.0/115 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB...AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAYMOND IS NEAR ITS PEAK...ALTHOUGH EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE AND INNER-CORE DYNAMICS COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM\r\nFLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS THAT ARE\r\nNOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...AS THE SHEAR VECTOR BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY AND\r\nRAYMOND MOVES OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS LATER IN THE PERIOD. THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n\r\nRAYMOND HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW...AND LITTLE\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK. THE GFDL AND HWRF CONTINUE TO BRING\r\nRAYMOND NORTHWARD CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW A SLOW SOUTHWARD OR\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. THE NHC TRACK INDICATES LITTLE MOTION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND SOME ERRATIC\r\nMOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF THE\r\nCYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE NORTH/SOUTH\r\nSPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE LATER IN THE PERIOD...SO\r\nCONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BY DAY 5. \r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS\r\nTO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH\r\nFLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  21/2100Z 16.3N 102.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 16.4N 102.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 16.3N 102.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 16.2N 103.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 15.5N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2013\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DISTINCT IN INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING AS SOME MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS\r\nHAVE OBSCURED IT A BIT.  HOWEVER...THE EYE IS STILL VERY WELL\r\nDEFINED IN THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM AROUND 0000 UTC.\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED A\r\nLITTLE...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 105 KT. \r\nALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...SOME FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AS AN\r\nEYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR.  THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE HURRICANE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND BY\r\nWEDNESDAY SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CAUSE AN ADDITIONAL\r\nDECREASE IN STRENGTH.  HOWEVER....RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH RAYMOND HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD SINCE THE RELEASE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IS\r\nFORECAST TO LIFT OUT...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN WESTWARD...WITH A\r\nWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nTHIS CYCLE ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME\r\nDIFFERENCES ON HOW CLOSE RAYMOND GETS TO THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE\r\nSHORT TERM...AND HOW FAST THE STORM MOVES ONCE IT TURNS WESTWARD IN\r\nA COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE ECMWF...GFS...HWRF...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND IS ALSO\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT GETS\r\nTO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING\r\nFLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0300Z 16.4N 101.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 16.3N 101.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 16.2N 101.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 16.0N 102.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 15.9N 103.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 15.8N 105.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 15.5N 108.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF THE HURRICANE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY...AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND\r\nINTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS\r\nREDUCED TO 100 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS.  AN\r\nAIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE\r\nRAYMOND AROUND 1800 UTC TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE INTENSITY.  THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED\r\nOVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND\r\nSHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS.  THEREFORE IT IS\r\nEXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING\r\nTHE EARLIER PART OF THE PERIOD.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LATEST HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM MODEL ENSEMBLE\r\nPREDICTION.\r\n\r\nASIDE FROM SOME MEANDERING...THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  RAYMOND IS LOCATED NEAR A COL IN THE\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...AND IT IS LIKELY TO REMAIN SO THROUGH\r\nTODAY.  THEREFORE LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A\r\nNORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE TO THE COAST.  IN 36-48\r\nHOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BEGINNING\r\nTO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND...WITH THIS RIDGE\r\nBEING MAINTAINED THROUGH 5 DAYS.  THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE HURRICANE TO BEGIN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nTOMORROW...AND TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n2-5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT\r\nCOMES TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE\r\nCONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/0900Z 16.5N 102.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 16.5N 102.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 16.4N 102.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 16.1N 103.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 15.9N 104.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 15.6N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 15.5N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 15.5N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PRESENTATION OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...AS\r\nTHE COVERAGE AND SYMMETRY OF THE COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS HAS\r\nDECREASED. ALSO...A 1032Z SSM/I PASS SHOWED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS\r\nERODED ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 90 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR\r\nFORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE\r\nRAYMOND AROUND 1800Z TODAY...AND SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INTENSITY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH\r\n72 HOURS AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM THROUGH THAT TIME. AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF\r\nWEAK STEERING BETWEEN A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WELL TO THE EAST\r\nAND WEST. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT\r\nIT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A NORTHWARD JOG TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSE\r\nTO THE COAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO\r\nBUILD NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A SLOW WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT BEGINNING BY 24 HOURS. AS\r\nTHE RIDGE STRENGTHENS...A STEADIER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT\r\nGETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE\r\nCONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/1500Z 16.5N 101.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 16.4N 102.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 16.2N 102.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 16.0N 103.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 15.8N 104.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 16.0N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n \r\nDATA FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT\r\nRAYMOND IS MUCH WEAKER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. WHILE THE PEAK\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 80 KT AT 700 MB...DROPSONDE DATA SHOW THAT\r\nTHESE WINDS ARE NOT DOWN TO THE SURFACE VERY EFFECTIVELY...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH THE DOWNWARD TREND IN THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION\r\nSEEN TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED AN OPEN EYEWALL...AND CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NEAR THE CENTER AND THE COLDEST TOPS ARE\r\nNOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...A\r\nLITTLE BELOW THE TYPICAL RATIO OF PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL TO SURFACE\r\nWINDS. MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nAND AFTER A LITTLE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IS INDICATED DURING THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE\r\nRAYMOND REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nWHILE RAYMOND DRIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD A LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN. LITTLE\r\nMOTION IS EXECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO WHILE THE STEERING\r\nFLOW REMAINS WEAK...BUT AFTER THAT TIME A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL\r\nBEGIN TO BUILD NORTH OF RAYMOND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FASTER\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD MOTION THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH\r\nTHE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAY 5 A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO ERODE\r\nTHE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW RAYMOND TO GAIN\r\nSOME LATITUDE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AFTER THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE PRECISE TRACK OF THE HURRICANE AND HOW CLOSE IT\r\nGETS TO THE COAST...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...BRINGING THE\r\nCONTINUED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  22/2100Z 16.3N 101.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 16.1N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 15.9N 103.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 15.7N 104.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 15.5N 105.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 15.3N 108.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN\r\nTHE CLOUD STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DEFINED.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 65 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH\r\nDVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  MODERATE\r\nSOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO\r\nTHE WEAKENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE\r\nAFFECTING RAYMOND DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS LIKELY\r\nTO CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE LATEST\r\nGFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS ALL WEAKEN RAYMOND TO A LOW-END\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN A FEW DAYS.  MEANWHILE...THE ECWMF...GFS...AND\r\nSHIPS MODELS ALL MAINTAIN A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE NHC FORECAST\r\nLEANS TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION SINCE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN OVER WARM WATER AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nDECREASE IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT RAYMOND HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVERNIGHT...BUT\r\nA MORE PRONOUNCED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO\r\nCOMMENCE BY TOMORROW MORNING.  RAYMOND SHOULD THEN CONTINUE HEADING\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE\r\nNEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND THERE IS NOW MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE\r\nFORECST TRACK THAN THERE HAS BEEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nLATE IN THE PERIOD...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF\r\nCALIFORNIA SHOULD WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING\r\nRAYMOND TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE CLOSER\r\nTO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM MEXICO ON\r\nWEDNESDAY...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF\r\nSOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE THE THREAT\r\nOF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS REACHING THE COAST OF MEXICO APPEARS TO BE\r\nDECREASING....THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE\r\nWARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 101.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 15.9N 102.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 15.7N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 15.5N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 15.3N 106.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 14.9N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 14.8N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 16.0N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013\r\n \r\nSATELLITE DATA SHOW THAT THE STRUCTURE OF RAYMOND HAS DEGRADED A\r\nLITTLE TONIGHT. THE EYE IS NO LONGER DISCERNABLE IN THE LATEST\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME LESS DEFINED\r\nOVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS DEGRADED\r\nAPPEARANCE COULD BE THE RESULT OF COOL WATER THAT HAS BEEN UPWELLED\r\nBENEATH THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 65 KT BASED\r\nON THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...BUT THIS ESTIMATE IS PROBABLY\r\nGENEROUS. SOME WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO DUE TO WESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nDURING THAT TIME. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN\r\nWHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND PLACES MORE WEIGHT ON THE DYNAMICAL-STATISTICAL\r\nAIDS AND TRENDS IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nRAYMOND HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT\r\nREMAINS LOCATED IN WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAND A RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY CAUSE RAYMOND TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TURN\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN RAYMOND REACHES\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED\r\nA LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE\r\nGFS AND ECMWF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/0900Z 16.0N 101.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 15.8N 102.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 15.5N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 15.3N 105.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 15.1N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 14.6N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 14.5N 114.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 16.0N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":15,"Date":"2013-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2013\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS FINALLY STARTED TO MOVE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS NOT HANDLED THIS\r\nTRANSITION WELL...WITH RAYMOND BECOMING RATHER DISORGANIZED ON THE\r\nLATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY.  A REMNANT MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nDISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH\r\nLITTLE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nBROUGHT DOWN TO 50 KT...ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. \r\nFURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS MODERATE\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THAT TIME...BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE LOW\r\nENOUGH GIVEN THE POOR INITIAL CONDITION OF THE STORM. \r\nTHEREAFTER...SOME RESTRENGTHENING SEEMS POSSIBLE DUE TO DECREASING\r\nSHEAR AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS.  THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST\r\nSHOWS AN INCREASING TREND IN THE DAYS 3-5 PERIOD...ON THE\r\nCONSERVATIVE SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nBEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 255/7.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO\r\nFAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TRACK CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A\r\nRIDGE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AFTER DAY 3...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST DUE TO A TROUGH\r\nDIGGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS DELAYING\r\nTHIS TURN A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...PROBABLY DUE TO MORE\r\nSEPARATION BETWEEN RAYMOND AND THE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  IT\r\nWOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nWERE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC FORECASTS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/1500Z 15.4N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 15.1N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 14.9N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 14.7N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 14.4N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 13.8N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 14.2N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 16.0N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":16,"Date":"2013-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013\r\n \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF A SHRINKING AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO\r\nFALL...AND THE WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nCONTINUES TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE...WITH A LARGE ARC CLOUD IN THE\r\nWESTERN SEMICIRCLE PROVIDING EVIDENCE OF DRY AIR CLOSER TO THE\r\nCENTER.  WHILE THE SHEAR SHOULD ABATE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO...THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME OF THAT DRIER AIR WILL\r\nSERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME RESTRENGTHENING IN THE LONG-\r\nTERM...IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...BUT IS A BIT\r\nLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS NHC PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A MORE CONFIDENT 250/8.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE\r\nNEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A HIGH SOUTHWEST OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA.  IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC IS NOW FORECAST TO DIG A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN\r\nPREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.  THIS SYNOPTIC CHANGE HAS THE EFFECT OF\r\nDELAYING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FROM TURNING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR\r\nNORTHWEST UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL NHC\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTH FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS COULD STILL BE REQUIRED FOR LATER NHC\r\nFORECASTS. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  23/2100Z 15.0N 103.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 14.8N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 14.6N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 14.4N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 13.9N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 13.2N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 13.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 15.0N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":17,"Date":"2013-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 23 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH RAYMOND DOES NOT RESEMBLE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR IMAGES\r\nTONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A VIGOROUS LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A\r\nLARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE \r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB AND THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...THE\r\nWINDS HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. MY BEST GUESS\r\nIS THAT RAYMOND WILL RE-INTENSIFY A LITTLE IN A DAY OR SO...SINCE\r\nTHE ECMWF AND THE GFS REVERSE THE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT INTO A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. IN\r\nADDITION...RAYMOND IS MOVING TOWARD A WARMER OCEAN. WITH THIS IN\r\nMIND...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND EXPANDED AND HAS FORCED THE\r\nCYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nAMPLIFY EVEN MORE...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nTRAPPED ON A WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WESTWARD TRACK WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONLY BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD WILL RAYMOND LIKELY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY GAIN\r\nLATITUDE. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS...BUT IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE FLOW PATTERN WHICH BOTH THE\r\nRELIABLE GFS AND THE ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE PREDICTING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.7N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.5N 105.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 14.3N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 14.0N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 13.5N 111.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 13.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 13.0N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 14.5N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":18,"Date":"2013-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND HAS BEEN\r\nEXPANDING...IT IS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR. A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM\r\nTAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nAT 40 KT. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING THAT TOOK PLACE\r\nDURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS MIGHT BE ENDING. THE WESTERLY SHEAR\r\nTHAT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WHILE\r\nRAYMOND REMAINS OVER WARM WATER. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW THE\r\nSTORM TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD...RAYMOND COULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED\r\nFAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST LIES NEAR THE\r\nHIGH END OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT IS LOCATED ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH. THE CYCLONE IS THEN FORECAST TO\r\nTURN NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN A TROUGH ERODES\r\nTHE RIDGE. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE\r\nMID-LEVEL PATTERN...THERE IS A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IN THE 3- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME. THE REASON FOR THE SPREAD\r\nIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED VERTICAL DEPTH\r\nOF RAYMOND. THE GFS SHOWS A SHALLOWER SYSTEM AND A SOUTHERLY TRACK.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE ECMWF SHOWS A DEEPER CYCLONE AND A MORE NORTHERLY\r\nTRACK. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE ECMWF...AND THE\r\nLATEST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THAT MODEL AND THE CONSENSUS AID...TVCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/0900Z 14.7N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 14.6N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 14.4N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 14.1N 110.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 13.7N 112.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 13.5N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 13.5N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 15.5N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":19,"Date":"2013-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2013\r\n \r\nA BURSTING PATTERN OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE\r\nAPPARENT CENTER OF RAYMOND DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH\r\nOVERNIGHT MICROWAVE AND EARLY-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DO NOT\r\nDEFINITIVELY SHOW THE CENTER...IT APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO THE\r\nSOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG AREA OF CONVECTION.  SUBJECTIVE/OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST 35-45 KT AS A CURRENT WIND SPEED...AND\r\nWITH THE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE INITIAL POSITION I HAVE ELECTED TO\r\nKEEP 40 KT AS THE INTENSITY.  \r\n \r\nRAYMOND SEEMS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD...WITH NO SIGN OF THE\r\nSOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION OBSERVED YESTERDAY.  AS A RIDGE BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE DO SUGGEST A RETURN\r\nTO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD ERODE THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND INDUCE A MORE POLEWARD MOTION OF\r\nRAYMOND.  THE ECMWF IS BASICALLY ON ITS OWN SHOWING A SHARP\r\nRECURVATURE OF THE CYCLONE BY 120W...WHILE MOST OF THE OTHER\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE ONLY SHOW A NORTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5.  SINCE THE\r\nECMWF HAS BEEN THE BEST-PERFORMING SINGLE MODEL IN THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC THIS SEASON...IT SEEMS WISE TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEW 12Z MODEL\r\nRUNS COME OUT BEFORE MAKING ANY LONG-RANGE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC\r\nPREDICTION...BETWEEN TVCE AND THE ECMWF.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PERPLEXING THIS MORNING.  WHILE ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN SHEAR WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER\r\nWARM WATER...NONE OF THEM SAVE THE GFDL SHOW SIGNIFICANT\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR AND SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nWILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTORS...BUT THESE DO NOT SEEM NEGATIVE\r\nENOUGH TO CAP STRENGTHENING THAT MUCH.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS\r\nBASICALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE...AND IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE FORECAST HAD TO BE\r\nRAISED LATER TODAY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/1500Z 14.8N 105.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 14.7N 107.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 13.6N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 13.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 14.7N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 16.0N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":20,"Date":"2013-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013\r\n\r\nCLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nRAYMOND...BUT APPARENTLY HAVE NOT RESULTED IN ANY INTENSIFICATION\r\nYET WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWING MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT\r\n35 KT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 40 KT AS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN THE ASCAT AND 45-KT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB SINCE\r\nTHE ASCAT DID NOT COVER THE WHOLE CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY NEAR\r\nRAYMOND...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A LOWER-SHEAR PATTERN.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE LAST CYCLE...WITH THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL JOINING THE GFDL IN FORECASTING RAYMOND TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nAGAIN.  WHILE I AM NOT QUITE READY TO BELIEVE THOSE MODELS\r\nVERBATIM...I THINK THEY HAVE THE RIGHT TREND GIVEN THE EVOLVING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS RAISED ABOVE THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BETWEEN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL. \r\nWEAKENING WILL PROBABLY COMMENCE BY DAY 5 DUE TO INCREASING\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR AND COOLING SSTS. \r\n \r\nTHE ASCAT PASS HELPED TO SOLIDIFY AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n270/9.  THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nWITH A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION LIKELY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE\r\nTO A RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE ECMWF\r\nCONTINUES TO BE ON ITS OWN IN FORECASTING A RECURVATURE OF RAYMOND\r\nEAST OF 119W AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WITH THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE ENDING UP MUCH FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN ANY OTHER\r\nMODEL BY DAY 5.  THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...BUT IS STILL WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST.  FOR NOW THE NEW NHC PREDICTION WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE...AND IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF LATER RUNS OF\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS SHIFT TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION.   \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  24/2100Z 14.8N 106.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 14.6N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 14.2N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 13.7N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 13.4N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 13.5N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 15.0N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 16.5N 120.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":21,"Date":"2013-10-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2013\r\n\r\nRAYMOND HAS MADE A COMEBACK TONIGHT. A LARGE CLUSTER OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KNOTS...BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE\r\nT-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND\r\nTHE ECMWF...HAVE DONE A REMARKABLY GOOD JOB IN FORECASTING THE\r\nCHANGE FROM UNFAVORABLE TO FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. NOW THAT\r\nTHIS FAVORABLE PATTERN HAS MATERIALIZED...AS SEEN BY A WESTWARD\r\nEXPANSION OF THE OUTFLOW...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR RAYMOND TO\r\nREACH HURRICANE STRENGTH AGAIN IN A DAY OR SO OVER OPEN WATERS.\r\nTHIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND WITH THE UPWARD\r\nINTENSITY TREND SHOWN BY GUIDANCE TONIGHT. THE HWRF APPEARS TO BE\r\nALONE IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE...KEEPING RAYMOND ON A GRADUAL STEADY\r\nDECAY OR WITH NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...WHEN THE SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER WATERS...WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD THEN BEGIN. \r\n\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF RAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nEXPAND AND IS FORCING THE CYCLONE TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST OR 265\r\nDEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL KEEP\r\nRAYMOND ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM MEXICO. BY DAY 4\r\nAND BEYOND...THE SAME APPROACHING TROUGH WHICH WILL INDUCE THE\r\nSHEAR WILL ALSO ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nTHEN SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WESTWARD MOTION TROUGH DAY 3 OR\r\nSO...BUT AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRACK BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH\r\nSOME MODELS KEEPING THE CYCLONE MEANDERING...AND OTHERS MOVING IT\r\nNORTHWARD A LITTLE FASTER. THE FIRST SOLUTION IS THE MOST LIKELY\r\nSCENARIO TO OCCUR SINCE BY THAT TIME...RAYMOND SHOULD BE WEAKER AND\r\nSTEERED BY A MUCH LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0300Z 14.6N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 14.5N 109.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 14.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 13.7N 113.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 13.5N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 14.0N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 17.0N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":22,"Date":"2013-10-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY OF RAYMOND IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN TONIGHT. WHILE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION...A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES BETWEEN\r\n04Z AND 05Z INDICATE THAT RAYMOND IS WEAKER THAN WOULD BE SUGGESTED\r\nBY A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. THE HIGHER OF\r\nTHE TWO ASCAT PASSES SHOWED ONLY A FEW 35-40 KT WIND BARBS EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...AND BASED ON THESE DATA THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY. DESPITE THE WEAKER INITIAL INTENSITY...\r\nCONDITIONS STILL APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n2 TO 3 DAYS...AS RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM\r\nWATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY...\r\nBUT STILL SHOWS RAYMOND REACHING HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 RAYMOND WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND\r\nSHEAR WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING\r\nSOUTHWARD OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING.\r\nTHROUGH THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AID. \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN GEOSTATIONARY\r\nIMAGERY. HOWEVER...MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT\r\nPASSES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF\r\nPREVIOUS ESTIMATES WITH A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION\r\nOF 260/09. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE SHORT\r\nTERM...AND THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nRAYMOND WILL MOVE WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 48 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME...THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE TO THE\r\nADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES...WITH LARGE RUN-TO-RUN\r\nVARIABILITY SEEN IN THE MODELS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE\r\nABOVE-MENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS MOVE THIS TROUGH EASTWARD MORE QUICKLY AND RECURVE\r\nRAYMOND AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY DAY 5. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY\r\nIN THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...AND THE EXPECTATION THAT RAYMOND\r\nWILL BE A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...I HAVE\r\nADJUSTED THE TRACK ONLY A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5\r\nTO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. THE NHC\r\nTRACK AT THESE TIMES IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/0900Z 14.2N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 13.9N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 13.5N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 13.4N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 13.4N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 14.5N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 16.5N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":23,"Date":"2013-10-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND FIRST-LIGHT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY SHOWS RAYMOND TO HAVE\r\nA LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES.\r\nADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST SSMIS MICROWAVE PICTURE APPEARS TO DEPICT\r\nDEVELOPING INNER CORE FEATURES.  THE INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT AT\r\nADVISORY TIME...WHICH MATCHES A BLEND OF THE TAFB AND SAB INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE CURRENT POSITION IS SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN. THE MOTION IS ANALYZED AT 240 DEGREES AT 7 KT...AND\r\nRAYMOND IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS.  BY DAY THREE...RAYMOND WILL BEGIN TO BE INFLUENCED\r\nBY A DIGGING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  THIS COMPLEX TROUGH SHOULD BOTH TURN THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE NORTHWARD AS WELL AS INCREASE THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nADVECTION OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM.  BY DAY FOUR OR\r\nFIVE...RAYMOND IS ANTICIPATED TO RECURVE OFF TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST AT A QUITE LOW LATITUDE...BUT STILL REMAIN WELL\r\nOFFSHORE OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO THAN PREVIOUSLY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN\r\nTHAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A THREE MODEL...\r\nGFS...ECMWF...AND FIM...BLEND AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE TVCE\r\nMULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND SHOULD INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...AS IT IS\r\nMOVING OVER WARM 28C WATERS AND MOVING THROUGH A MOIST UNSTABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE WITH VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR. SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY...\r\nTHE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY BULLISH WITH RAYMOND FOR THE\r\nNEXT TWO DAYS...ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX\r\nSHOWS ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  BY DAY THREE TO FOUR...THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nINCREASE QUICKLY FOLLOWED SHORTLY IN TIME BY A DRIER MORE STABLE\r\nATMOSPHERE AND COOLER SSTS.  AROUND DAY FIVE...THESE HOSTILE\r\nFACTORS MAY CAUSE RAYMOND BEGIN TO DECOUPLE WITH THE MID-LEVEL\r\nVORTEX SEPARATING FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nCLOSEST TO THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/1500Z 13.7N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 13.5N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 13.5N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 13.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 15.5N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":24,"Date":"2013-10-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE STORM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE\r\nEARLIER TODAY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 45 KT AND 55 KT\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS KEPT\r\nAT 50 KT...BUT DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT THIS\r\nMIGHT BE GENEROUS. RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF\r\nLOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IS STILL PREDICTED. LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...INCREASING SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER FIXES HAVE SOME SCATTER...MY BEST ESTIMATE IS\r\nTHAT THE MOTION CONTINUES AT 240/7.  RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTERWARD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD AND\r\nMOVE THROUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST.  NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A VERY SLOW MOTION SINCE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nOF RAYMOND COULD BE SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...LEAVING THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL VORTEX TO MEANDER IN THE VICINITY OF 18-20N LATITUDE. \r\nTHAT IS THE SCENARIO WHICH IS BEING SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND GFS\r\nMODELS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT STILL WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  25/2100Z 13.6N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 13.4N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 13.4N 113.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 13.6N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 14.1N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 16.2N 117.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":25,"Date":"2013-10-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 25 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAYMOND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS MAINTAINING A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND...\r\nWITH THE CENTER UNDERNEATH THE NORTHERN TIP.  A WELL-ESTABLISHED\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALSO PREVAILS OVER THE STORM. HOWEVER...THE\r\nAREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS SHRUNK AND CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. A\r\nBLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES IS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND CONTINUES TO MOVE ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD COURSE AT A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS\r\n245/09. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 20N\r\n120W SHIFTS EASTWARD. WHEN RAYMOND REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE SAME\r\nRIDGE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS...A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN A NORTHWARD TURN\r\nARE EXPECTED WITH A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE\r\nAPPROACH OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A\r\nRECURVATURE SCENARIO BY 96 HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE SHEARING APART.\r\nAFTER THAT.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS...CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION.  \r\n \r\nTHE LACK OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY HAS BEEN BAFFLING...ESPECIALLY\r\nSINCE RAYMOND HAS BEEN MOVING OVER WARM WATERS IN A LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT.  PERHAPS THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE IS INGESTING\r\nRELATIVELY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST. WITH SHIPS MODEL\r\nOUTPUT SHOWING GENERALLY FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE CONDITIONS PERSISTING\r\nFOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...RAYMOND IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW- TO\r\nMID-LEVEL CENTERS TO SEPARATE BY 96 HOURS.  RAYMOND IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...\r\nBUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE SHEAR IS HIGHER THAN FORECAST.\r\nTHE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE BUT WITH A\r\nFASTER WEAKENING TREND IN 72 TO 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0300Z 12.9N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 12.9N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 12.9N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 14.1N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 16.5N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 18.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":26,"Date":"2013-10-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF RAYMOND HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN AND\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES WITH THE COLDEST TOPS DISPLACED EAST OF THE\r\nCENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM SAB. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO APPEAR\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE OVER WARM WATERS AND IN LOW SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS\r\nSEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT HAS NOT RESULTED IN MUCH\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM...AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...RAYMOND WILL MOVE OVER COOLER SSTS AND\r\nEXPERIENCE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.\r\nTHESE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL DECAY\r\nTO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND IS NOW MOVING WESTWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF\r\n265/11. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF RAYMOND WILL BE AT PEAK\r\nSTRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUED\r\nWESTWARD MOTION. AFTER THAT TIME...THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A LARGE\r\nTROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW DIGS SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHWEST OF RAYMOND. THIS PATTERN SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO RECURVATURE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE IN 72 TO\r\n96 HOURS. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED\r\nAS RAYMOND DECOUPLES FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nTRENDED FASTER AND SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL RECURVATURE THIS CYCLE...\r\nAND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE\r\nTRENDS. THE NHC TRACK REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE\r\nECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/0900Z 13.1N 111.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 13.1N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 13.3N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 14.0N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 15.1N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 17.1N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 18.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":27,"Date":"2013-10-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND CONSISTS OF A LARGE\r\nCURVED BAND WITH INDICATIONS FROM MICROWAVE IMAGERY OF A\r\nDEVELOPING INNER CORE.  OF COURSE...THAT IS WHAT THE INTERPRETATION\r\nOF THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS YESTERDAY AS WELL...AND YET THE STORM\r\nHAS NOT INTENSIFIED.  THE TAFB AND SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY VALUES REMAIN AT 3.5 AND 3.0...OR 55 AND 45 KT...\r\nRESPECTIVELY...WHILE ADT IS AT 43 KT AND CIMSS AMSU IS AT\r\n50 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE GIVES THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT.  THE\r\n0926Z AMSU PASS ALSO ALLOWED FOR AN ADJUSTMENT OUTWARD OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII FROM THE CIRA SIZE ANALYSES.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO\r\nTHE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE SHOULD SLIDE EASTWARD AS A ROBUST MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGINS TO TURN\r\nRAYMOND NORTHWARD IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nFAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...THE MODELS FASTEST WITH RECURVATURE...\r\nSUCH AS THE ECMWF...HAVE A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHING RAYMOND. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE WHEN RAYMOND IS LIKELY\r\nTO BE A REMNANT LOW...THE CYCLONE SHOULD MEANDER EASTWARD IN THE\r\nWEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR MODERATELY CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF WITH 28C\r\nWATER...INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. \r\nTHE ONLY IDENTIFIABLE FACTOR SOMEWHAT HOSTILE FOR DEVELOPMENT IS\r\nTHE WARM UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES.  GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nIS LIKELY WITH RAYMOND PEAKING AT OR NEAR CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE\r\nINTENSITY.  BEGINNING AROUND 48 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR ABRUPTLY\r\nINCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  IT IS ANTICIPATED\r\nTHAT THE STRONGER SHEAR AND LESS CONDUCIVE THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD\r\nLEAD TO THE CYCLONE BECOMING DECOUPLED WITH THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION ADVECTING OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND DAY FOUR. \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAND IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE HWFI...DSHP...AND GFSI MODELS.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/1500Z 13.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 13.3N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 13.7N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 14.4N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 15.6N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 17.5N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 18.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":28,"Date":"2013-10-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LARGE CURVED BAND WITH THE CENTER TUCKED\r\nINTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BAND...WITH CONVECTION RECENTLY ON\r\nTHE INCREASE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE NOT YET CHANGED\r\nAPPRECIABLY...SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 45 KT.  IT IS A\r\nLITTLE BIT OF A MYSTERY WHY RAYMOND HAS NOT INTENSIFIED MUCH...BUT\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATER...LOW SHEAR...AND RELATIVELY MOIST AIR\r\nSHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE\r\nINCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER COULD ALSO PORTEND ANOTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING EPISODE...GIVEN INNER CORE FEATURES SEEN ON EARLIER\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGES.  AFTER THE WEEKEND...DECREASING SSTS AND\r\nINCREASING SHEAR WILL LIKELY INDUCE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN.  DESPITE\r\nSEEMINGLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN\r\nNOTABLY FROM SIX HOURS AGO WITH NO RELIABLE MODELS SHOWING RAYMOND\r\nBECOMING A HURRICANE AGAIN.  GIVEN HOW RELUCTANT RAYMOND HAS BEEN\r\nTO STRENGTHEN...THE NHC FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT MODEL TREND...BUT\r\nSTAY AT OR A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS TO PRESERVE\r\nSOME CONTINUITY.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 9 KT.  THE STORM SHOULD\r\nTURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN 24 HOURS AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD SOON\r\nAFTERWARD WHILE IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF A RIDGE.  AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH...THERE\r\nIS A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS ON WHAT HAPPENS TO A MUCH-WEAKENED\r\nRAYMOND.  A MAJORITY OF THE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A SLOW EAST TO\r\nSOUTHEAST MOTION IS THE BEST IDEA...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THAT\r\nRAYMOND WILL LIKELY BE A REMNANT LOW AT THAT TIME.  THE LATEST NHC\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AT\r\nLONG RANGE.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  26/2100Z 13.1N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 13.2N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 13.8N 116.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 14.7N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 15.8N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 17.1N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1800Z 17.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":29,"Date":"2013-10-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 26 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSHOWED AN INCREASE OF CONVECTIVE BANDS SINCE EARLIER TODAY...WITH A\r\nPRIMARY BAND NOW WRAPPING MORE THAN THREE QUARTERS OF THE WAY\r\nAROUND THE CIRCULATION.  THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS\r\nTAKEN ON A MORE CIRCULAR SHAPE...AND A 2249 UTC TRMM PASS ALSO\r\nSHOWED A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL RING OF CONVECTION...SIGNALING THE\r\nFORMATION OF AN EYEWALL.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM\r\nTAFB WAS 3.5 AT 0000 UTC...AND ADT VALUES ARE ON THE RISE.  BASED\r\nON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 55 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. RAYMOND SHOULD MOVE WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF STORM\r\nSHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN REACH A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CURRENTLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA EJECTS\r\nEASTWARD. AT THIS POINT...RAYMOND MAY ATTEMPT A RECURVATURE BEFORE\r\nSHEARING APART...WITH THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE REMNANT CIRCULATION\r\nMOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OR EVEN SOUTHWARD...LIKELY BE DRAWN\r\nIN THIS DIRECTION DUE TO A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST.\r\nEVEN THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE\r\nTHIS CYCLE...THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HOLDS THE LINE BY FAVORING THE\r\nMORE EASTERN ECWMF SOLUTION UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT A DEEPER\r\nCYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE SHARPLY AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND FINALLY APPEARS TO BE RESPONDING TO FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE\r\nFACTORS FOR INTENSIFICATION. SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE UNDER\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND OVER\r\n27-28C WATERS...THE CURRENT STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITHIN THE INNER\r\nCORE SUGGEST THAT RAYMOND WILL LIKELY ACHIEVE HURRICANE STRENGTH\r\nDURING THIS TIME.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE SUBJECTED\r\nTO A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE OF DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR RELATED\r\nTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A\r\nDECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN AS SOON AS 72 HOURS.  GIVEN RECENT\r\nTRENDS...THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE...BUT IS LITTLE CHANGED LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0300Z 13.2N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 13.5N 115.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 14.4N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 15.3N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 16.2N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 17.0N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 16.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z 16.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":30,"Date":"2013-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT. A CDO FEATURE HAS\r\nDEVELOPED RECENTLY...AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE BENEATH THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CANOPY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. NOW\r\nTHAT RAYMOND HAS DEVELOPED AN INNER CORE...IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO\r\nTAKE ADVANTAGE OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED STRENGTHENING AND IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AID IVCN. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAYMOND\r\nCOULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN SHOWN HERE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE\r\nCYCLONE EXPERIENCES MODERATE SHEAR...MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS...AND\r\nBEGINS TO INGEST AIR FROM A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE NORTH.\r\nRAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD.\r\n\r\nRAYMOND HAS BEGUN TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 285/09. AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND RETREATS\r\nWESTWARD...RAYMOND SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN POLEWARD AND SLOW DOWN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE THIS CYCLE HAS TRENDED A BIT\r\nFASTER IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND\r\nAND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. LATER\r\nIN THE PERIOD...A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED\r\nAS RAYMOND WEAKENS AND DECOUPLES FROM THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW. MUCH OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE NOW TAKES RAYMOND FARTHER NORTH BY 72 HOURS...AND THE\r\nSPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE ECMWF IS WELL\r\nEAST OF THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...AND SHOWS A FASTER RECURVATURE\r\nAS IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHE GFS HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH THIS CYCLE AS WELL...WHILE THE\r\nREMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN BY THE END OF THE\r\nPERIOD. WITH RAYMOND NOW EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER IN 2 TO 3\r\nDAYS THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SOME ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD MOTION\r\nSEEMS REASONABLE...BUT THE NHC FORECAST STOPS SHORT OF TAKING\r\nRAYMOND AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...AND IN AN\r\nEFFORT TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/0900Z 13.5N 115.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 14.2N 116.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 15.0N 117.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 16.1N 117.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 17.0N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 117.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":31,"Date":"2013-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013\r\n \r\nSEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES HAVE SHOWN THAT RAYMOND HAS A CLOSED\r\nAND WELL-DEFINED EYE...BUT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS MOSTLY BEEN\r\nOBSCURING THAT FEATURE IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY.  STILL...\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE RISEN TO T4.5/77 KT AND\r\nT4.0/65 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN\r\nADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES ARE 82 KT AND 77 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS THEREFORE RAISED TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nSINCE RAYMOND WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE HAD AN INTENSITY OF 45 KT ONLY\r\n18 HOURS AGO...THE HURRICANE IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THIS STRENGTHENING TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR A\r\nLITTLE LONGER WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE...BUT\r\nDEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO LIKELY\r\nBECOME LESS FAVORABLE WHILE RAYMOND MOVES CLOSER TO A DRIER AND\r\nMORE STABLE AIR MASS AND COOLER WATERS LOCATED TO ITS NORTHWEST. \r\nTHE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT\r\nINTENSIFICATION TREND BUT THEN IS NEARLY IDENTICAL ON DAYS 2\r\nTHROUGH 5.  THIS FORECAST IS RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY\r\nCONSENSUS ICON AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nRAYMOND IS STILL LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT\r\nTHAT FEATURE IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN DUE TO AN AMPLIFYING\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/9 KT...BUT RAYMOND SHOULD BE TURNING\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE\r\nTROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER.  ONCE RAYMOND WEAKENS TOWARD THE LATTER\r\nPART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE LEFTOVER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKER STEERING\r\nREGIME.  THE 06Z GFS RUN NOW AGREES WITH THE EARLIER 00Z ECMWF RUN\r\nIN SHOWING RAYMOND MAKING MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS ON DAYS 3 THROUGH\r\n5...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE NOW THAT RAYMOND IS STRONGER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nTHEREFORE A LITTLE EAST AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...\r\nESPECIALLY ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...AND LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/1500Z 14.2N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 14.9N 116.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 16.0N 117.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 17.1N 117.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 17.9N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 18.8N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 19.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 20.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":32,"Date":"2013-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH THE EYE CLEARING OUT IN\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND T4.8/85 KT FROM\r\nTHE ADT AT 18Z...AND GIVEN THAT THE PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nORGANIZED EVEN IN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nRAISED TO THE UPPER BOUND OF THE ESTIMATES.  RAYMOND SHOULD BE ABLE\r\nTO AT LEAST MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO\r\nBEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR INCREASES TO ABOUT 20 KT.  AFTER THAT\r\nTIME...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID WEAKENING WHEN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nBECOMES MORE HOSTILE.  SINCE RAYMOND STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE\r\nTHAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING SHOULD ALLOW IT\r\nTO MOVE FARTHER NORTH THAN INDICATED IN EARLIER FORECASTS. \r\nIRONICALLY...THIS WILL MOVE THE CYCLONE INTO A HIGHER-SHEAR AND\r\nLOWER-SST ENVIRONMENT MORE QUICKLY...AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST NOW SHOWS A MORE SUDDEN DROP OFF IN THE WIND FORECAST\r\nAFTER 36 HOURS.  RAYMOND COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND\r\nDISSIPATED BY DAY 5.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS\r\nGENERAL SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND APPEARS TO BE TURNING NORTHWESTWARD NOW THAT THE LARGE\r\nMID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS SHUNTING THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EASTWARD OVER MEXICO.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS NOW 305/8 KT...AND THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD\r\nBY 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH.  ONCE ALL THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY IN A FEW DAYS...THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DRIFT NORTHWARD OR BECOME NEARLY\r\nSTATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS TVCE IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFS...ECMWF...AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  27/2100Z 14.5N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 15.2N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 17.3N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 17.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 18.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":33,"Date":"2013-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 27 2013\r\n \r\nTHE RAPID INTENSIFICATION PHASE THAT RAYMOND UNDERWENT DURING\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS HAS PROBABLY ENDED.  THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED...CONSISTING OF A NEARLY\r\nCIRCULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A CLOUD-OBSCURED EYE.  HOWEVER A\r\nSHARP EDGE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT\r\nIS SUGGESTIVE OF INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBER FROM TAFB AT 0000 UTC WAS 5.0...AND ADT VALUES HAVE\r\nRECENTLY LEVELED OFF AROUND THAT VALUE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING SHARPLY POLEWARD...AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/08.  THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND SLOW DOWN SOON...IN RESPONSE TO A SIGNIFICANT\r\nBREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE\r\nLATTER FEATURE SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN\r\n36 TO 48 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE FAIRLY\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THAT TIME. THE FORWARD MOTION COULD SLOW\r\nTO A CRAWL AFTER 48 HOURS...AND INCREASING SPREAD IN THE MODEL\r\nSOLUTIONS MAKES CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST LOW.  THE ONLY\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS A SMALL SHIFT TO THE\r\nRIGHT...TOWARD THE ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS.  THIS IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS...ALONG WITH A\r\nSIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS.  ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE PERSISTENCE AND\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A RAPID DECOUPLING OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  THIS WOULD LEAD TO A VERY QUICK\r\nDEMISE AFTER THAT TIME...WITH RAYMOND LIKELY DEGENERATING INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS OR PERHAPS SOONER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0300Z 15.3N 116.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 16.1N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 17.1N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 17.8N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 18.3N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":34,"Date":"2013-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013\r\n \r\nTHE EYE OF RAYMOND IS NO LONGER APPARENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY...\r\nHOWEVER A LARGE AREA OF VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS IS STILL PRESENT IN A\r\nCDO FEATURE...MAINLY TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T NUMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO COME\r\nDOWN A BIT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85 KT.\r\nUW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES AND THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATE ABOUT 20\r\nKT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING RAYMOND...AND THIS IS EXPECTED\r\nTO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR...\r\nCOOLER SSTS...AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD\r\nTO GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME. THE GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND SHOW THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF RAYMOND DECOUPLING FROM\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY 48 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE IVCN\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS. RAYMOND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 3\r\n...AND DISSIPATE IN 4 OR 5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF RAYMOND HAS BEEN MORE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE\r\nEYE DISAPPEARED...BUT THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED NORTHWARD\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 350/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED. RAYMOND SHOULD SLOW DOWN DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WEAKENS WHILE THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED TROUGH APPROACHES THE CYCLONE. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...AS RAYMOND WEAKENS AND\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND\r\nTHE NEW NHC TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nCLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DURING THAT PERIOD. AFTER 48\r\nHOURS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES...AND THE NHC FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE MOTION...ASSUMING THAT RAYMOND WILL BE A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM MEANDERING IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL AND FORECAST 34-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REDUCED BASED ON\r\nDATA FROM ASCAT-A AND ASCAT-B PASSES OVER RAYMOND AT 0444Z AND\r\n0538Z...RESPECTIVELY. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/0900Z 16.0N 116.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 16.7N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 17.5N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 18.2N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 18.6N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 19.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Raymond","Adv":35,"Date":"2013-10-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 28 2013\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY NEAR RAYMOND...AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nEXPOSED JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T\r\nAND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT SUPPORT\r\nAN ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 75 KT.  RAYMOND WILL BE MOVING NORTHWARD\r\nINTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF EVEN STRONGER SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND\r\nDRIER AIR...ALL OF WHICH SHOULD CONSPIRE TO CONTINUE A QUICK\r\nWEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE\r\nIN AGREEMENT IN SUGGESTING A FAIRLY PRECIPITOUS DECREASE IN WINDS\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT TO REFLECT THIS TREND.  RAYMOND\r\nWILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY\r\nDAY 5.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 355/6 KT...THROUGH A BREAK IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nEXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR HAWAII.  THE\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE EXTENDS DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE\r\nATMOSPHERE...SO EVEN AS RAYMOND WEAKENS...THE SURFACE CIRCULATION\r\nSHOULD STILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...ALBEIT MORE SLOWLY DUE TO\r\nWEAKER STEERING CURRENTS.  THERE IS RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND THE\r\nUPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/1500Z 16.4N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 17.2N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 18.0N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 18.7N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 19.2N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":36,"Date":"2013-10-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND IS STILL PRODUCING A SIZEABLE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...BUT\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE DUE TO\r\nSTRONG VERTICAL SHEAR.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\nPLUMMETING...AND A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT SUPPORTS DOWNGRADING RAYMOND TO A\r\n60-KT TROPICAL STORM.  THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ABATE...AND\r\nRAYMOND SHOULD CONTINUE A RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TREND FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO.  COUPLED WITH COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...THE\r\nSHEAR SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND\r\nTO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.  ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A\r\nRAPID DECREASE IN WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THE UPDATED\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT TO KEEP\r\nPACE WITH THE RECENT WEAKENING TREND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS ICON...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS...IN\r\nPARTICULAR THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...SHOW EVEN FASTER WEAKENING THAN\r\nINDICATED BELOW.\r\n \r\nRAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD...OR 005/6 KT...AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nLOCATED NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST.  ONCE THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS\r\nBEEN SHEARED AWAY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSTEERED A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST\r\nBEFORE DISSIPATION.  THE 12Z CYCLES OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH\r\nFASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS AND SHOW THE REMNANT LOW MOVING FARTHER\r\nNORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nNUDGED NORTHWARD...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 36 HOURS...BUT IT IS NOT AS\r\nFAR NORTH AS SHOWN BY THESE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  28/2100Z 16.8N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 17.7N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 18.6N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 19.4N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 20.1N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":37,"Date":"2013-10-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 28 2013\r\n\r\nRAYMOND IS SHOWING THE AFFECTS OF 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS DECREASED DURING THE\r\nEVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION NOW IN A RAGGED BAND ABOUT\r\n50-80 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 50 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AS WELL AS CONTINUITY\r\nFROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/5.  RAYMOND IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nEND OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT\r\nNORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  WHILE RAYMOND IS EXPECTED TO SHEAR APART...\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO KEEP RAYMOND\r\nMOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. \r\nTHERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED...WITH THE ECMWF AND\r\nGFS AGAIN BEING FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nECMWF AND GFS.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES RAYMOND INTO INCREASING SHEAR...OVER COLDER\r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INTO DRIER AIR.  THE CYCLONE IS THUS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND\r\nTO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS DISSIPATING BY 96 HOURS...AND THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0300Z 17.2N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 17.9N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 18.9N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 19.6N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 20.1N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 20.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":38,"Date":"2013-10-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013\r\n \r\nTHE RAPID WEAKENING OF RAYMOND APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY SLOWED\r\nTHIS MORNING AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE\r\nDATA REVEALS THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE\r\nOF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DUE TO 25-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK FINAL-T AND\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING\r\nAN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 50 KT.  THE WEAKENING PROCESS SHOULD RESUME\r\nSHORTLY AND CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE RAYMOND\r\nREMAINS IN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVES OVER DECREASING SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW\r\nSHORTLY THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nRECENT CENTER FIXES FROM SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT\r\nRAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST\r\nTO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES\r\nBETWEEN A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM\r\nMEXICO AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. \r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IS\r\nRATHER WEAK...SO ONCE RAYMOND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT IS\r\nFORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE NEW NHC\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE\r\nCONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/0900Z 17.6N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 18.3N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 19.2N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 19.8N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":39,"Date":"2013-10-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013\r\n \r\nDESPITE RECENTLY PRODUCING A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION...\r\nRAYMOND IS STILL A HIGHLY SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY AND CLOUD-DRIFT WINDS SHOW THAT THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR\r\nTHE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A STRONG JET STREAK...AND ANALYSES FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR IS ABOUT 30 KT FROM\r\nTHE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE FALLEN TO 3.0\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE THEREFORE LOWERED TO\r\n45 KT.  THE RAPID WEAKENING THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY HAS SLOWED DOWN...\r\nBUT STRONG SHEAR...COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD ALL\r\nCONTRIBUTE TO A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION.  THE NHC\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND SHOWS\r\nRAYMOND BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND DISSIPATING IN\r\nABOUT 4 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BENEATH THE\r\nCONVECTIVE CLOUD SHIELD...BUT RAYMOND STILL APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nGENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 005/5 KT.  THE STORM IS LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE...BUT WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS SHOULD ONLY INDUCE A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO\r\nNORTHEASTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE REMNANT LOW IS\r\nTHEN LIKELY TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN 2 TO 3 DAYS WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST WERE REQUIRED ON THIS CYCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/1500Z 18.3N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 18.8N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 19.6N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 19.9N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 20.0N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":40,"Date":"2013-10-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013\r\n \r\nA CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PERSIST TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER...BUT RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ILL DEFINED AND\r\nSTRETCHED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE\r\nASCAT DATA AND IS CORROBORATED BY A BLEND OF FINAL-T AND CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE ADT.  THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nDIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR MAY HAVE LET UP JUST A LITTLE\r\nBIT TODAY...WHICH IS ALLOWING RAYMOND TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT\r\nCONVECTION.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN EARNEST\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND IT WILL BE HARDER AND HARDER FOR\r\nRAYMOND TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WHILE IT MOVES OVER\r\nCOOLER WATER AND TOWARD DRIER AIR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS\r\nRAYMOND ON A STEADY WEAKENING TREND...AND THE CYCLONE COULD BE A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN 36 HOURS.  DISSIPATION IS INDICATED BY DAY\r\n3...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER COULD LAST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\n\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT RAYMOND HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-\r\nNORTHEAST...OR 020/5 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BUT ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECOUPLED BY\r\nTHE SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DRIFT NORTHWARD OR\r\nMEANDER WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE...AND NOT TOO DIFFERENT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  29/2100Z 18.5N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 19.2N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 19.9N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 20.3N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 20.5N 115.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Raymond","Adv":41,"Date":"2013-10-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 29 2013\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH RAYMOND HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS\r\nEVENING AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO FEEL THE IMPACT OF 25-30 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  A RECENT TRMM OVERPASS SUGGESTS\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME ELONGATED WITH POSSIBLE\r\nMULTIPLE VORTICITY CENTERS.  SINCE THERE IS NO DATA FROM THE\r\nCYCLONE CORE AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  THIS COULD BE GENEROUS\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/6.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD MOVE\r\nGENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A\r\nTOUCH FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nA COMBINATION OF STRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT SHOULD CAUSE RAYMOND TO\r\nDECAY TO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT CONVECTION WILL RE-DEVELOP DURING THE\r\nMORNING DIURNAL MAXIMUM AND SLOW THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.  IF\r\nTHIS DOES NOT HAPPEN...RAYMOND SHOULD DISSIPATE FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0300Z 19.1N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 19.8N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 20.4N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 20.8N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 21.0N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Raymond","Adv":42,"Date":"2013-10-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 30 2013\r\n \r\nRAYMOND HAS DECOUPLED OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOW\r\nLOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED NAUTICAL MILES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nSMALL AREA DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BECOME QUITE ELONGATED...AND\r\nPOSSIBLY LOCATED A LITTLE EAST OF THE EARLIER CENTER ESTIMATES. \r\nTHE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE MOST RECENT DVORAK FINAL-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. \r\nSTRONG SHEAR...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND DRY AIR\r\nMAKE IT UNLIKELY THAT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL RETURN....AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.  THE\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO...AND IT SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY WITHIN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/5.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE\r\nNORTHEASTERLY TODAY...THEN TURN NORTHWARD AND DECELERATE AS IT\r\nMOVES INTO AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE NEW NHC TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/0900Z 19.6N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 20.1N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 20.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 20.8N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 21.0N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Raymond","Adv":43,"Date":"2013-10-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP172013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172013\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 30 2013\r\n \r\nA 1235 UTC SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nRAYMOND IS ELONGATED...AND THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED.  IN\r\nADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN NO DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR\r\nABOUT 15 HOURS.  THEREFORE...RAYMOND IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A\r\nREMNANT LOW...AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY.  THE INTENSITY IS HELD\r\nAT 30 KT...BUT WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS THE CIRCULATION\r\nSPINS DOWN.  THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...MICROWAVE IMAGES\r\nSUGGEST THAT IT IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS\r\nESTIMATES.  RAYMOND IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 055/5 KT...BUT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE\r\nTO WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THE REMNANT\r\nLOW IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE\r\nRE-LOCATION OF THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  30/1500Z 19.7N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 20.1N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 20.4N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 20.6N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2013-11-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n200 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED\r\nAND BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  IN ADDITION...AN\r\nASCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF THE LOW\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED.  THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM IS BEING\r\nDESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  BASED ON A DVORAK\r\nESTIMATE FROM TAFB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 30\r\nKT.  THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE\r\nWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION BUT OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED\r\nTO THE EAST.  THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH MOST OF THE MODELS ONLY MAKING THE CYCLONE A\r\nLOW-END TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nBY 72 HOURS OR SO...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE BEGUN WEAKENING\r\nBY THAT TIME.\r\n \r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF FIXES FROM GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY AND\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/6.  A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A BROAD\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD INDUCE A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/0900Z 16.4N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 17.3N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 17.8N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 18.2N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 19.0N 110.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 24.5N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2013-11-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n800 AM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION.  EVEN WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nPICTURES...THE CENTER IS HARD TO FIND...AND THERE APPEARS TO BE\r\nMULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ENVELOPE.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL\r\nSTAY 30 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM HAS SOME CHANCE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER WITH LIGHT SHEAR.  ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS SUGGEST THE DEPRESSION WILL GET\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER DURING THAT TIME...MOST OF THE OTHER\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN WINDS.  GIVEN THE LARGE SIZE\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION AND THE POOR INITIAL STRUCTURE...THE WEAKER IDEA\r\nSEEMS MORE REASONABLE.  THE NHC FORECAST IS REDUCED SLIGHTLY FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 24H...AND IS BASICALLY THE SAME\r\nTHEREAFTER...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD COMMENCE AFTER 48H DUE TO AN INCREASE IN SHEAR...AND THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL PROBABLY NOT LAST LONG AFTER LANDFALL DUE TO STRONG\r\nSHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL...THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MAKING A\r\nLEFTWARD TURN...AND IS NOW MOVING ROUGHLY 345/6.  RIDGING SHOULD\r\nTEMPORARILY BUILD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO\r\n36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...A LARGE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING FROM THE\r\nWEST SHOULD INDUCE A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT TO THE WEST DURING THE\r\nFIRST 48H TO BETTER FIT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT IS VERY\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER THAT TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 17.4N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 18.4N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 19.6N 110.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 27.0N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2013-11-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n200 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF\r\nMULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS WITHIN A LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. A\r\nCURVED BAND FEATURE IS ATTEMPTING TO REFORM WEST OF THE CENTER...\r\nALTHOUGH THE BAND HAS BEEN BROKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS\r\nWITH LIGHT OR MODERATE SHEAR. THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS HAVE\r\nBACKED OFF ON THEIR STRONGER STORM SOLUTIONS...AND HAVE COME MORE\r\nINTO LINE WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...SHOWING ONLY MODEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nFIXES SUGGEST THE CENTER WAS A BIT SOUTHEAST OF MY PREVIOUS\r\nPOSITION...GIVING A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/3...A BIT\r\nSLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST BY TOMORROW DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER MEXICO.\r\nHOWEVER...THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED WITH A LARGE CLOSED LOW\r\nLIKELY CAUSING A SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARD\r\nSINALOA...AND PERHAPS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nSUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN SHIFTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...THOUGH IT STILL LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL PROBABLY BE DISSIPATED BY 96H...BUT A POINT IS\r\nGIVEN FOR CONTINUITY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  01/2100Z 16.7N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 17.1N 108.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 17.6N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 24.7N 107.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 28.0N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2013-11-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n800 PM PDT FRI NOV 01 2013\r\n \r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. THE CYCLONE STILL HAS AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE\r\nPATTERN WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS CONFINED TO THE\r\nWESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER IS\r\nELONGATED WITH MULTIPLE SWIRLS EVIDENT IN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE\r\nIMAGES OF THE DAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 30\r\nKT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. A RIDGE\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND\r\nWESTWARD...CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON\r\nSATURDAY. THAT MOTION SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A LARGE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 25N 125W MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.\r\nTHIS CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO\r\nTURN NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND\r\nEARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ABOUT 2 DAYS AND OVER WEST-\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.\r\n \r\nEASTERLY SHEAR OF 15-20 KT IS LIKELY THE REASON FOR THE POOR\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE\r\nDURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATERS\r\nOF ABOUT 28C...AND THESE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST\r\nAFTER THE CYCLONE MAKES LANDFALL...AND IT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE\r\nOVER THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0300Z 16.9N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 17.2N 109.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 17.9N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 19.1N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 21.0N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 26.1N 106.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2013-11-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n200 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH LIMITED CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE PRESUMED CENTER AND A CIRCULATION THAT SCATTEROMETER DATA\r\nINDICATE IS STRETCHED NORTH TO SOUTH. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS\r\nMISSED THE WESTERN AND STRONGER SEMICIRCLE...AND THE DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN BELOW STORM STRENGTH...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED. A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0441Z\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED PERHAPS ABOUT 50 NMI TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE MORE SOUTHERN MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...WHICH YIELDS AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/4.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO WILL NUDGE THE CYCLONE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THAT A LARGE APPROACHING\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE AND RECURVE THE SYSTEM AFTER THAT. \r\nTHE GUIDANCE IS FASTER ON THIS CYCLE...THE GFS PARTICULARLY\r\nSO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  EVEN WITH THIS ADJUSTMENT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SLOWER THAN THE TVCE CONSENSUS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE NEW ECMWF.\r\n\r\nDEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN HINDERED BY EASTERLY WIND SHEAR AND...\r\nPOSSIBLY...THE SPRAWLING AND RELATIVELY ILL-DEFINED CIRCULATION.\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL LESSEN BRIEFLY AS IT SWITCHES FROM EASTERLY TO\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY IN 24-36 HOURS...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH STORM STRENGTH.\r\nHOWEVER...ONLY THE HWRF MAKES THE SYSTEM A STORM AND THEN ONLY\r\nBARELY.  STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nINDUCE WEAKENING ON THE APPROACH TO BAJA AND MAINLAND MEXICO...AND\r\nBOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE CENTER LOSING DEFINITION\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENEROUSLY INCLUDES A 72-HR\r\nFORECAST POINT TO ALLOW THE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST...BUT IT IS\r\nUNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STILL EXIST IN THREE DAYS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/0900Z 17.2N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.7N 109.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 18.8N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 20.6N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 23.1N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 27.5N 105.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2013-11-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n800 AM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ON THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES STILL SHOW THAT THE CENTER\r\nOF THE CYCLONE REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CONVECTIVE\r\nMASS.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME EXPANSION OF THE CIRRUS CLOUDS EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...SO PERHAPS THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS ON THE WAY DOWN.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL\r\nREMAIN 30 KT AS A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK ESTIMATES.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT.  A TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS DUE TO AN APPROACHING CLOSED LOW.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON THIS TRACK...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE\r\nMADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  A 72H FORECAST IS INCLUDED FOR\r\nCONTINUITY...BUT THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE DISSIPATED BY THEN.\r\n \r\nIT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nBECOME A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM...AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES HAVE\r\nA COUPLE OF MORE MODELS THAT SHOW THIS SOLUTION.  THUS THE NEW\r\nFORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MODEST STRENGTHENING.  SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nWIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE AFTER 36H...WHICH SHOULD\r\nCAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN WHILE ITS APPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. \r\nTHE NEW NHC FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITHIN A\r\nFEW KNOTS OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION AND THE LOW CHANCES OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE\r\nTROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER MEXICO.  THUS...IT IS PRUDENT TO\r\nWAIT FOR ANY TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER\r\nINTERESTS IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SINALOA SHOULD MONITOR THIS\r\nSYSTEM.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.6N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.3N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.6N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 21.9N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 24.8N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 28.5N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2013-11-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n200 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS\r\nCLOSER TO THE DEEP CONVECTION THAN EARLIER...ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL\r\nDIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL\r\nWIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT...BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER. MICROWAVE AND OTHER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THIS\r\nMOTION SHOULD BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER...AS A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN IT TOWARD THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST BY LATE SUNDAY. ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE LATEST ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM. WIND SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO...WHICH WILL PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.\r\nHOWEVER...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE BY\r\n36H...WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE WEAKENING WHILE THE CYCLONE\r\nAPPROACHES MAINLAND MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE\r\nGUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nA TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MEXICO GIVEN THE SMALL...\r\nBUT NOT NEGLIGIBLE...CHANCES OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS\r\nOCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  02/2100Z 17.7N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 18.5N 110.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 20.3N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 22.9N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 25.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2013-11-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n800 PM PDT SAT NOV 02 2013\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS. THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVE MOVED FARTHER AWAY FROM THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER POSITION...AND THE TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS. THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAD NOT BECOME ANY BETTER DEFINED...WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD SWIRLS\r\nNOTED WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\n30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE CYCLONE\r\nIS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE THE SHEAR DECREASES IN THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD\r\nOF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT\r\nSHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRENGTHENING...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSTILL SHOWS THE CYCLONE REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WHEN THE CYCLONE APPROACHES\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES FURTHER.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS...BUT A BLEND OF THE LATEST FIXES AND CONTINUITY PROVIDES AN\r\nUNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 320/5. THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nRECURVE AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AND AHEAD OF THE\r\nABOVE-MENTIONED TROUGH IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS PATTERN\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO A NORTHWARD TURN IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY\r\nAN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE MODELS ARE IN\r\nGENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC TRACK IS\r\nLARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0300Z 18.3N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.4N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 21.6N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 24.1N 107.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 26.5N 106.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sonia","Adv":9,"Date":"2013-11-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n100 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013\r\n \r\nAFTER HAVING GONE THROUGH SEVERAL PULSING PHASES OF CONVECTIVE\r\nDEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...MORE PERSISTENT AND\r\nORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nDUE TO A SHARP DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ASCAT-A AND\r\nASCAT-B OVERPASSES AT 0421Z AND 0514Z...RESPECTIVELY...INDICATED\r\nBELIEVABLE 30-34 KT WIND VECTORS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE\r\nWINDS ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT\r\nFROM TAFB AND 36 KT FROM THE UW-CIMSS SATCON. AS A RESULT...THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM SONIA. THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS\r\nOR SO...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING\r\nTHAT TIME. HOWEVER...BY 24 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE WIND SHEAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT MORE THAN 25 KT...\r\nCAUSING RAPID WEAKENING TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE\r\nSYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\nALTHOUGH A POSITION IS SHOWN AT 48 HOURS...MAINLY FOR CONTINUITY...\r\nTHE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY HAVE DISSIPATED INLAND BY THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/06 KT. THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED\r\nASCAT OVERPASSES...ALONG WITH PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...HAVE HELPED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE CENTER LOCATION THIS\r\nMORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE THE OVERALL INNER-CORE WIND FIELD IS STILL\r\nBROAD AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER AND NORTH OF THE\r\nALLEGED CENTER...SOME ERRATIC MOTION IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD\r\nDIRECTION COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. BY 12 HOURS\r\nAND BEYOND...SONIA WILL GRADUALLY COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING\r\nBROAD MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING 120W\r\nLONGITUDE. AS A RESULT...SONIA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND\r\nCONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL OCCURS ON MONDAY. THE NHC MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO....AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR\r\nTO BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND TO\r\nTHE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE.\r\n\r\nBASED ON THE UPDATED TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...THE GOVERNMENT\r\nOF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF\r\nWEST-CENTRAL MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/0900Z 18.8N 110.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 20.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 22.6N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 24.9N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 27.0N 105.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sonia","Adv":10,"Date":"2013-11-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n700 AM PST SUN NOV 03 2013\r\n\r\nTHE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION\r\nWITH SONIA HAS EXPANDED THIS MORNING.  EARLY MORNING VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST BENEATH \r\nTHE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS.  BASED ON THE\r\nSLIGHTLY IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND 3.0\r\nFROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS\r\nINCREASED TO 40 KT.  THE RECENT STRENGTHENING APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nRESULT OF DECREASING SHEAR AS SONIA MOVED BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT.  THIS RELAXATION IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CAUSE A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN SHEAR\r\nTONIGHT....AND NO SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.   \r\nSOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME SONIA REACHES THE COAST\r\nAS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS TO\r\nDECOUPLE.  SONIA IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL\r\nOVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL NORTHWARD OR 005 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  SONIA\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD VERY SOON AS DEEP LAYER\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING\r\nINTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  SONIA\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE LATER TODAY AND MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE\r\nCOAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO MONDAY MORNING.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE \r\nREQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC ADVISORY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/1500Z 19.9N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 21.6N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 23.7N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 25.9N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sonia","Adv":11,"Date":"2013-11-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n100 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013\r\n \r\nSONIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER THE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY BE BECOMING ELONGATED IN A\r\nNORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  IT APPEARS THAT SONIA\r\nHAS REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY SINCE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED\r\nTO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.  THIS IS\r\nLIKELY TO CAUSE SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE SONIA MAKES LANDFALL.\r\nRAPID WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER LANDFALL AND SONIA IS FORECAST TO\r\nDISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY EVENING.\r\n \r\nSONIA HAS TURNED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGUN TO ACCELERATE...WITH \r\nAN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/12 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AHEAD OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND THE NHC FORECAST IS AGAIN ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SONIA IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF \r\nWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  03/2100Z 21.4N 109.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 25.3N 106.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sonia","Adv":12,"Date":"2013-11-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n700 PM PST SUN NOV 03 2013\r\n \r\nMUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA IS BEING DISPLACED\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION DUE TO\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nBECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS REDUCED\r\nTO 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB. \r\nSONIA COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...\r\nAND RAPID WEAKENING WILL ENSUE AFTER THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND DUE\r\nTO MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND PROHIBITIVELY HIGH SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A 24-HOUR FORECAST POINT FOR A REMNANT LOW OVER\r\nMEXICO...ALTHOUGH IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE ABLE TO\r\nACTUALLY MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY FOR THAT LONG.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER LOCATION IS RATHER UNCERTAIN...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 030/15. \r\nTHIS MOTION SHOULD BE MORE OR LESS MAINTAINED FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS WHILE SONIA IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A BROAD\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION.  THIS IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT FROM SONIA CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL\r\nTHAT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0300Z 23.2N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 25.0N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 27.0N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sonia","Adv":13,"Date":"2013-11-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n100 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013\r\n \r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF SONIA REACHED THE\r\nCOAST OF SINALOA NEAR THE CITY OF EL DORADO ROUGHLY AROUND 0500\r\nUTC...AND THE CYCLONE WAS STILL PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 35-KT\r\nWINDS NEAR THE COAST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT THAT TIME. \r\nNOW THAT THE CENTER AND ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE MOVED\r\nINLAND...SONIA IS PROBABLY NO LONGER PRODUCING SUSTAINED TROPICAL-\r\nSTORM-FORCE WINDS...AND IT IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION ON\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED FROM THIS POINT FORWARD\r\nDUE TO INTERACTION WITH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND VERY STRONG SHEAR. \r\nEVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST PROVIDES A 12-HOUR REMNANT LOW\r\nPOSITION...SONIA COULD VERY WELL HAVE DISSIPATED BY THAT TIME AS\r\nSHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nSONIA WAS MOVING QUICKLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN 15-20 KT BEFORE\r\nIT REACHED LAND...BUT IT IS NOW SLOWING DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH AN\r\nESTIMATED MOTION OF 030/8 KT.  AN EVEN SLOWER NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED BEFORE DISSIPATION DUE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nBECOMING BLOCKED BY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH SONIA IS WEAKENING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND\r\nSOUTHERN CHIHUAHUA THROUGH THE DAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/0900Z 24.6N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 25.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Sonia","Adv":14,"Date":"2013-11-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP182013","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nREMNANTS OF SONIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182013\r\n700 AM PST MON NOV 04 2013\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SONIA HAS QUICKLY DIMINISHED DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS...AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL\r\nMOUNTAINS.  AS A RESULT...THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY ON\r\nTHIS SYSTEM.  ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING\r\nHAS DIMINISHED...MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO SPREAD\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  04/1500Z 25.5N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nConvection associated with the area of low pressure off the east\r\ncoast of Florida has increased and become a little more organized\r\nduring the past few hours. Radar data shows that the convection has\r\ndeveloped into a band over the southeastern and southern portions of\r\nthe circulation.  Based on these data, advisories are being\r\ninitiated on the first tropical depression of the 2014 Atlantic\r\nhurricane season.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is\r\nin agreement with data from the earlier Air Force reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft mission.\r\n\r\nThe south to southwest motion of the cyclone over the past couple of\r\ndays seems to have slowed this evening.  The initial motion\r\nestimate is 225/2 kt. The model guidance indicates that the\r\ndepression should begin to move slowly westward tonight and early\r\nTuesday.  After that time, a building mid-level ridge over the\r\nwestern Atlantic will begin to steer the cyclone northwestward\r\nthen northward.  A large deep-layer trough that is forecast to\r\napproach the eastern United States in a couple of days, should\r\ncause the cyclone to turn northeast and accelerate.  The model\r\nguidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there is\r\nstill significant uncertainty on how close the system will get to\r\nthe coast of the southeastern United States.\r\n\r\nLow shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track\r\nare expected to allow gradual strengthening during the next few\r\ndays. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on\r\nTuesday and this is in line with all of the reliable intensity\r\nguidance.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of the\r\nSHIPS/LGEM guidance.  Late in the forecast period, the cyclone is\r\nforecast to interact with the aforementioned trough and become\r\nextratropical by day 5.\r\n\r\nDue to the expected close approach of the system to the coast of\r\neast-central Florida and likely strengthening during the\r\nnext day or two, a tropical storm watch has been issued for portions\r\nof that area. Interests elsewhere along the coast of the\r\nsoutheastern United States should monitor the progress of this\r\nsystem.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 27.6N  79.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 27.6N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 28.0N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 28.8N  79.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 30.1N  79.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 33.0N  78.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 38.0N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 43.0N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nRadar and satellite imagery show little change in the organization\r\nof the tropical cyclone over the past few hours.  The main area of\r\ndeep convection remains situated over the southern portion of the\r\ncirculation, and banding features are not yet very prominent in\r\nenhanced infrared images.  Surface observations and Doppler radar\r\nvelocities suggest that little strengthening has occurred thus far,\r\nand the current intensity is held at 30 kt.  This is also in\r\nagreement with the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, and\r\nobjective estimates from UW/CIMSS.\r\n\r\nThere hasn't been much motion early this morning, but the best\r\nguess is that the cyclone is now drifting mainly westward, or about\r\n260/2.  The overall steering scenario seems relatively\r\nstraightforward.  A mid-tropospheric trough that is currently over\r\nthe north-central United States is predicted by the global models\r\nto move eastward and dig a bit over the next several days.  This\r\nshould cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and\r\nnorth-northeastward with some acceleration during the next 2-3\r\ndays, followed by a turn toward the northeast with an additional\r\nincrease in forward speed later in the forecast period.  The\r\nofficial forecast track is similar to the previous one, close to\r\nthe model consensus, and to the left of the latest ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nNumerical guidance shows favorable conditions for intensification\r\nwith weak shear and developing upper-level outflow over the cyclone\r\nduring the next 72 hours or so.  The official intensity forecast\r\nnow shows the system becoming a hurricane, which is similar to the\r\nlatest intensity model consensus.  By the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, the global guidance indicates that the cyclone will merge\r\nwith a baroclinic zone near Nova Scotia, which should result in\r\nextratropical transition.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 27.6N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 27.9N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 28.5N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 29.5N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 30.8N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 34.3N  76.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 39.5N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 44.0N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nRadar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective\r\norganization of the cyclone has improved since the previous\r\nadvisory, and the cyclone is being upgraded based on a sustained\r\nwind report of 33 kt from Settlement Point (SPGF1) on Grand Bahama\r\nIsland earlier this morning that was outside of the deep convection.\r\n\r\nAfter remaining nearly stationary earlier this morning, Arthur\r\nappears to to be drifting northwestward now with an uncertain motion\r\nof 315/02 kt. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the\r\nprevious forecast track. The latest model guidance has continued the\r\ntrend of a pronounced mid-tropospheric trough digging southeastward\r\nfrom the upper-midwest into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic region\r\nof the United States by 72 hours. The 500 mb flow pattern is almost\r\nidentical in the GFS and ECMWF models, which increases the\r\nconfidence in this evolving pattern. As a result, a steady increase\r\nin southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States\r\nis expected to gradually turn the tropical cyclone northward over\r\nthe next 24-36 hours, and then accelerate the system faster toward\r\nthe northeast on Thursday and Friday. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is\r\nforecast to move over the far north Atlantic as an extratropical\r\ncyclone. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory track, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed\r\nguidance envelope close to the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nNorthwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast by the models to\r\ngradually subside over the next 48 hours, which should allow the\r\ncyclone to develop its own upper-level outflow pattern. In fact,\r\nlatest visible and water vapor imagery indicates that cirrus\r\noutflow has been expanding on the north side of the system during\r\nthe past few hours, suggesting that the shear conditions could\r\nalready be subsiding. The low shear conditions and warm\r\nsea-surface temperatures should allow for at least steady\r\nstrengthening, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane by\r\n72 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nlatest intensity model consensus IVCN through 36 hours, and then\r\nslightly higher after that.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 27.6N  79.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 27.8N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 28.7N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 29.8N  79.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 31.2N  78.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 35.4N  75.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 40.8N  67.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 45.5N  59.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough radar and satellite imagery indicate that the convective\r\npattern of Arthur has changed little since the previous advisory...\r\nan Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the\r\ncyclone this afternoon has found that flight-level and SFMR surface\r\nwinds in the southeastern quadrant that support increasing the\r\nintensity to 45 kt. In fact, the flight crew has been been bounced\r\naround pretty good by strong thunderstorms in that area and have\r\nbeen forced to climb to a higher altitude in order to avoid\r\nsignificant turbulence.\r\n\r\nArthur has been drifting northwestward at 325/02 kt. No significant\r\nchange has been made to the previous forecast track or reasoning.\r\nThe latest reliable numerical models remain in good agreement on\r\nlarge mid-level trough digging southeastward into the northeastern\r\nand mid-Atlantic states during the next 72 hours, while a\r\nsubtropical ridge east of the Carolinas gradually strengthens. The\r\ncombination of these two systems is expected to steadily increase\r\nthe southwesterly steering flow over the southeastern United States\r\nand the extreme western Atlantic. By Days 4 and 5, Arthur is\r\nforecast to accelerate rapidly northeastward ahead of the\r\naforementioned trough as an extratropical cyclone. The official\r\nforecast track is again just an update of the previous advisory\r\ntrack, and remains in the middle of the tightly packed guidance\r\nenvelope and close to the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nNorthwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to gradually abate\r\nover the next 48 hours, allowing Arthur to develop an upper-level\r\noutflow pattern that is conducive to strengthening. The primary\r\ninhibiting factor will be the occasional intrusions of dry mid-level\r\nair to the north of the cyclone penetrating into the center and\r\nbriefly disrupting the inner-core convection. However, the global\r\nand regional models are forecasting the inner core region to\r\nmoisten significantly by 36-48 hours, which should allow Arthur to\r\nstrengthen into a hurricane while the cyclone is over warm SSTs and\r\nin light shear conditions. After 72 hours, Arthur will be be moving\r\nover cooler water and is forecast to experience vertical wind shear\r\nin excess of 30 kt, which should induce at least steady weakening.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 27.8N  79.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 28.3N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 29.2N  79.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 30.4N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 32.1N  78.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 36.6N  73.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 42.2N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  06/1800Z 46.8N  57.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nData from the Melbourne WSR-88D radar indicates that Arthur has a\r\ncomplex structure this evening.  A mid-level cyclonic circulation\r\naccompanied by a possible eye feature is clearly evident near 27.8N\r\n78.8W.  However, the motions of the light showers/low clouds seen in\r\nthe radar data suggest that the low-level center is about 25-30 n mi\r\nwest of the mid-level center. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Arthur early Wednesday\r\nmorning to see if the center has re-formed to the east. Pending the\r\narrival of the aircraft, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/2.  The track guidance\r\nmodels remain in good agreement on a large mid/upper-level trough\r\ndigging southeastward into the northeastern and mid-Atlantic states\r\nduring the next 72 hours, while a subtropical ridge east of the\r\nCarolinas gradually strengthens. The combination of these two\r\nsystems is expected steer Arthur generally northward for 24 hours or\r\nso, followed by a turn toward the northeast and gradual\r\nacceleration. The combination of the lack of motion over the past\r\n6-12 hours and the slightly more eastward initial position have\r\nresulted in some eastward shift of the track guidance envelope.  As\r\na result, the new forecast track is also shifted slightly to the\r\neast from the previous forecast. The official forecast is near the\r\ncenter of the track guidance envelope and remains close to the\r\nvarious consensus models.\r\n\r\nArthur is expected to be in an environment of light northwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear for the next 60-72 hours.  This should allow for\r\ncontinued development.  However, satellite total precipitable water\r\ndata suggests that pockets of dry air remain near the cyclone, and\r\nthese could hinder development.  Given these competing factors, the\r\nnew intensity forecast is changed little from the previous forecast\r\nand calls for Arthur to become a hurricane in about 36 hours and\r\nreach its peak intensity in about 72 hours.  After that time, the\r\ncyclone should undergo extratropical transition and weaken as it\r\nmerges with the mid/upper-level trough.\r\n\r\nBased on the new forecast track, additional watches and warnings\r\nare not necessary for the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts\r\nat this time.  However, tropical storm or hurricane watches will\r\nlikely be required for portions of these areas on Wednesday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 27.9N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 28.6N  79.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 29.7N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 31.0N  78.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 32.8N  77.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 37.5N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 43.0N  64.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/0000Z 47.5N  57.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nDespite a somewhat ragged appearance on satellite imagery, Arthur\r\nhas strengthened overnight. Data from two ASCAT passes between 02\r\nand 03 UTC showed a broad area of 45-50 kt winds east and northeast\r\nof the center. In addition, NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft have found surface winds in the 45-50 kt range to\r\nthe south and northeast of the center, while also finding the\r\ncentral pressure has fallen to about 996 mb. Based on all of\r\nthese data, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nArthur is still suffering the effects of dry air aloft being\r\nentrained into the western half of the circulation, which\r\nfeatures only limited cold cloud tops. The primary convective band\r\nis situated east and southeast of the center, and some semblance of\r\nan eye has been visible in satellite and radar imagery and was\r\nreported by the aircraft. This lopsided structure suggests that\r\nArthur will not strengthen quickly in the short term. However, given\r\nan otherwise favorable environment of warm water and weak wind\r\nshear, all of the intensity guidance shows the cyclone becoming a\r\nhurricane in 24 to 36 hours, and so does the official forecast. By\r\n72 hours, Arthur will be moving into a high shear environment ahead\r\nof an advancing mid/upper-level trough, which should result in\r\nweakening during the extratropical transition process.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus aid IVCN\r\nthrough the period.\r\n\r\nArthur has begun moving steadily northward at around 5 kt. The\r\noverall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the tropical\r\ncyclone should continue northward for the next 12 to 24 hours\r\nand then gradually accelerate northeastward between the\r\naforementioned trough and a strengthening ridge to the east. The\r\ntrack guidance envelope has shifted back to the west a little for\r\nthis cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that\r\ndirection, but now lies on the eastern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope through 48 hours.\r\n\r\nGiven the new NHC forecast, hurricane and tropical storm watches\r\nhave been issued for portions of the coasts of South and North\r\nCarolina. Warnings may be required for portions of these areas\r\nlater today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 28.4N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 29.3N  79.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 30.5N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 32.1N  78.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 34.2N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 40.0N  69.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 46.0N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/0600Z 50.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-07-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 AM EDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nBoth NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes were sending\r\nobservations from Arthur during the past several hours. The data\r\nindicate that Arthur remains with an initial intensity of 50\r\nknots. These strong winds are currently confined to the eastern\r\nsemicircle. Although the cloud pattern on satellite is somewhat\r\nragged, the radar presentation is fair with numerous rainbands.\r\n\r\nThe presence of mid-level dry air is limiting the intensification in\r\nthe short term. However, given an otherwise favorable environment of\r\nwarm water and weak wind shear, all of the intensity guidance shows\r\nthe cyclone becoming a hurricane in about 36 hours, and so does\r\nthe official forecast. By 72 hours, Arthur will be moving into\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone is forecast to lose\r\ntropical characteristics thereafter.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nvery similar to the consensus of the models.\r\n\r\nArthur is moving northward at around 6 kt.  The synoptic reasoning\r\nfrom the previous cycle is unchanged and Arthur will likely\r\naccelerate to the north and northeast over the next couple days.\r\nSince there has been no significant change in the track guidance,\r\nthe official forecast is similar to the previous one. Given the new\r\nNHC forecast, only a tropical storm warning has been issued for the\r\ncoast of North Carolina. However, any deviation to the left of the\r\nforecast track or an increase in the size of the wind field would\r\nrequire the issuance of a hurricane warning for all or part of the\r\narea under hurricane watch.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at:\r\nhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/114756.shtml?\r\ninundation#contents\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 29.1N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 30.1N  78.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 31.5N  78.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 33.5N  76.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 36.0N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 42.0N  66.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 47.0N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/1200Z 51.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-07-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nBoth NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance planes are once again\r\nsending data from Arthur. The data suggest that the cyclone is\r\ngradually strengthening and the wind field is expanding. Satellite\r\nimages indicate that the cloud pattern is becoming better organized\r\nwith an eye feature surrounded by moderate convection. Based on the\r\nabove information, the initial intensity has been increased to 60\r\nknots at this time. There is still some mid-level dry air in the\r\nvicinity of Arthur that is currently limiting significant\r\nintensification. However, given an otherwise favorable environment\r\nof warm water and weak wind shear, the NHC forecast calls for\r\nArthur to become a hurricane within the next 12 hours. Global\r\nmodels, primarily the ECMWF and the GFS intensify the cyclone\r\nsignificantly, and also expand the wind field as the center moves\r\nnear the North Carolina coast.\r\n\r\nArthur has been steered northward or 360 degrees at 6 knots,\r\nsteered by a weak flow on the western side of the subtropical\r\nridge. In about 24 hours, the cyclone will recurve and\r\nmove northeastward with increasing speed as it becomes embedded\r\nwithin the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. Since most of the\r\nguidance has shifted a little bit to the west, the official\r\nforecast was adjusted westward, and it now brings the core of\r\nArthur close to the coast of North Carolina. This prompted\r\nthe issuance of a hurricane warning for a portion of the coast.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at:\r\nhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 29.7N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 30.7N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 32.4N  78.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 34.5N  76.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 37.2N  72.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 43.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 49.0N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/1800Z 53.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 PM EDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nReports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft,\r\nalong with satellite data, indicate that Arthur is very near\r\nhurricane strength.  On one side, the central pressure has fallen to\r\n988 mb, there were a few estimates of hurricane force winds from\r\nthe SFMR instrument on the Air Force plane, and there are several\r\nsatellite intensity estimates of 65-75 kt. On the other side, the\r\nflight-level winds from the two aircraft did not support hurricane\r\nstrength, and the SFMR winds from the NOAA plane were also below\r\nhurricane strength.  Given the conflicting data, the initial\r\nintensity is held at 60 kt.  Another aircraft is scheduled to\r\ninvestigate Arthur around 06Z.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 360/7.  Arthur is moving through a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge towards the westerlies over the\r\neastern United States. During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone\r\nshould recurve northeastward ahead of a deep-layer baroclinic\r\ntrough moving eastward through the Great Lakes and New England.\r\nWhile the guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, the\r\ncenter of the guidance envelope has again shifted a little westward\r\ntoward the North Carolina coast.  The GFS has made a rather\r\nsignificant shift since the previous run, and it now brings the\r\ncenter of Arthur across eastern North Carolina.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is shifted a little closer to the coast, but it will stay in\r\nthe center of the guidance envelope to the east of the GFS.\r\n\r\nCoastal radar data shows that Arthur is having trouble maintaining a\r\nclosed eyewall, which is likely due to continued entrainment of dry\r\nair. However, the storm should remain in an area of light vertical\r\nwind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 36\r\nhours or so. Thus, the new intensity forecast calls for additional\r\nstrengthening during that time similar to the previous forecast.\r\nAfter 48 hours, Arthur should merge with the baroclinic trough over\r\nthe Canadian Maritimes and become extratropical.  The intensities\r\nand wind radii during the extratropical phase have been modified\r\nbased on input from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at:\r\nhttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 30.6N  79.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 31.7N  78.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 33.5N  77.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 36.0N  74.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 39.0N  70.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 45.5N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 51.0N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/0000Z 55.5N  50.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nData from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft\r\nshowed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center,\r\nand the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at\r\n8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65\r\nkt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty\r\nmaintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level\r\nair being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar\r\npresentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some\r\ngradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while\r\nthe cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm\r\nwaters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically\r\nas Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off\r\nof the east coast of North America, and global model fields show\r\nArthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close\r\nto the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little\r\nbelow the consensus after that time.\r\n\r\nRadar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is\r\nnow a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur\r\nshould begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer\r\ntrough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this\r\nscenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and\r\nremains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close\r\nto the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the\r\ncenter of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks\r\nlate tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate\r\nnortheastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the\r\nnortheastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the\r\nCanadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end\r\nof the period.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the\r\nextratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 31.3N  79.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 32.5N  78.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 34.7N  76.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 37.5N  72.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 40.9N  67.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 47.5N  60.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 54.0N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/0600Z 60.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nData from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show\r\nthat Arthur continues to strengthen this morning.  The Air Force\r\nplane has reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 83 kt.  The\r\nNOAA aircraft reported 91 kt from 8,000 ft, and both aircraft have\r\nmeasured surface winds of around 80 kt from the SFMR. Based on these\r\ndata, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt. Arthur is\r\nforecast to remain in low shear and move over warm water during the\r\nnext 24 hours.  This should allow for some additional\r\nintensification.  The updated NHC intensity forecast now calls for\r\nArthur to reach category two strength prior to its landfall or\r\nclosest approach to the coast, in agreement with tightly clustered\r\nintensity guidance.  After that time, Arthur will be moving over\r\ncooler waters north of the Gulf Stream, and the shear is forecast to\r\nincrease as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer trough that will be\r\nmoving off the east coast of the United States. Arthur is forecast\r\nto become a strong extratropical cyclone in 48 hours and should\r\nsteadily weaken after that.\r\n\r\nAircraft and radar data indicate that Arthur is moving a little\r\nfaster and appears to have turned north-northeastward, although\r\nthe motion over the last hour or two was northward.  The hurricane\r\nshould turn northeastward later today and accelerate ahead of the\r\ndeep-layer trough nearing the U.S. east coast.  The models are in\r\ngood agreement in showing the center of Arthur grazing the North\r\nCarolina coast during the next 24 hours, however only a slight\r\nwestward shift in the track would bring the strongest winds inland\r\nover eastern North Carolina. After 24 hours, the spread in the\r\nmodels increases some with the GFS and HWRF faster and along the\r\nwestern side of the guidance.  The ECMWF is a bit slower and to the\r\nright.  The NHC forecast leans toward the faster GFS solution, but\r\nhas been adjusted a little to the east at days three through five.\r\nThe forecast track brings the center of the cyclone near or over\r\nportions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in two to three days.\r\n\r\nUsers are reminded to not focus of the exact forecast track since\r\nthe associated hazards extend well away from the center.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 32.4N  78.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 33.8N  77.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 36.3N  74.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 39.4N  70.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 42.7N  66.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 48.5N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 55.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1200Z 60.0N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe eye of Arthur has become more distinct in visible satellite\r\nimagery this afternoon, although the overall radar presentation has\r\nchanged very little. The latest flight-level and SFMR wind\r\nobservations are 84 kt and 82 kt respectively.  These data support\r\nmaintaining the 80-kt initial intensity. Environmental conditions\r\nare expected to remain conducive for strengthening during the next\r\n12 to 18 hours and Arthur is still forecast to reach category two\r\nintensity as it nears the North Carolina coast.  Vertical shear is\r\nforecast to increase significantly by Friday night and weakening\r\nshould commence by that time.  Arthur is expected to interact with\r\nan approaching deep-layer trough and should become a post-tropical\r\ncyclone within 48 hours. Steady weakening is anticipated after\r\nArthur becomes post-tropical.\r\n\r\nAircraft and radar fixes indicate that the initial motion is 020\r\ndegrees at 11 kt, a little faster than before.  Arthur is expected\r\nto turn northeastward and accelerate ahead of a deep-layer trough\r\nthat will move into the eastern United States during the next day\r\nor so.  Although the models still remain in good agreement on the\r\ntrack of Arthur during the next couple of days, there has been a\r\nwestward shift this cycle.  The new NHC track has been shifted\r\nwestward and lies between the GFS and ECMWF models through 36\r\nhours.  The updated track now shows landfall in eastern North\r\nCarolina or the Outer Banks later tonight.   Beyond 36 hours, the\r\nNHC track has been adjusted about a degree westward, but it is not\r\nas far west as the GFS and ECMWF model trackers.\r\n\r\nWhile in most cases this westward shift in the track will be\r\nimmaterial to impacts, it does mean that the hurricane's strongest\r\nwinds are now more likely to be experienced along the Outer Banks,\r\nrather than remain offshore.\r\n\r\nNHC public advisories will be issued every two hours beginning at 7\r\npm EDT this evening and Tropical Cyclone Updates will be issued\r\non the hour between each Public Advisory to provide hourly position\r\nupdates.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 33.4N  77.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 35.3N  76.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 38.2N  72.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 41.9N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 45.2N  64.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 50.4N  56.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 56.5N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1800Z 60.0N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe eye of Arthur is about to make landfall near Cape Lookout,\r\nNorth Carolina.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nreported 700-mb flight-level winds of 94 kt and SFMR winds of 79 kt\r\nin the southeastern eyewall.  The lowest reported central pressure\r\nwas 976 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity was\r\nincreased to 85 kt.  Coastal radar data indicates a well-defined\r\n20-25 n mi diameter eye is present, and the eye is also apparent in\r\ninfrared satellite imagery.\r\n\r\nArthur is accelerating toward the northeast due to the approach of\r\na baroclinic trough over the northeastern United states, and the\r\ninitial motion is now 035/16.  A continued northeastward motion and\r\nacceleration are expected during the next 24-36 hours.  The\r\nforecast track calls for the center to cross coastal North Carolina\r\nduring the next several hours, pass southeast of New England in\r\nabout 24 hours, and be near or over western Nova Scotia in about 36\r\nhours.  After that, the westerlies are expected to steer Arthur or\r\nits remnants across Newfoundland into the North Atlantic.  The\r\nforecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the\r\ncenter of the guidance envelope for the first 72 hours.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is expected during the next 12 hours\r\nas the eye of the hurricane crosses coastal North Carolina and the\r\nadjacent northwestern Atlantic.  After that, Arthur is expected to\r\nundergo extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete\r\nby the time the cyclone reaches Nova Scotia.  After passing Nova\r\nScotia, a post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the\r\nNorth Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 34.6N  76.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 36.7N  74.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 40.0N  70.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 43.7N  66.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 46.2N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 51.5N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 57.5N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0000Z 60.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nArthur still has a well-defined eye in radar imagery, and the\r\ncloud pattern features an area of cold cloud tops wrapping around\r\nthe northern and western portions of the circulation as some dry air\r\nworks its way into the southern semicircle. Before the Air Force\r\nHurricane Hunters left Arthur, they measured flight-level winds of\r\n91 kt and SFMR winds of 82 kt, which support maintaining the initial\r\nintensity at 85 kt. The central pressure is set to 973 mb based on\r\na measurement of 975.5 mb at an NOAA National Ocean Service station\r\nat Oregon Inlet with a wind of 35 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft will be sampling Arthur later this morning. Gradual\r\nweakening is expected today and tonight, and Arthur will complete\r\nextratropical transition by 36 hours. After passing Nova\r\nScotia, post-tropical Arthur should weaken rapidly over the North\r\nAtlantic.\r\n\r\nArthur is accelerating northeastward, with an initial motion\r\nestimate of 040/20, and a northeastward motion is expected to\r\ncontinue for the next 48 hours as Arthur recurves ahead of an\r\nadvancing mid-latitude trough. The track model guidance is in good\r\nagreement in taking the center of Arthur well offshore of the U.S.\r\nmid-Atlantic coast today and southeast of New England tonight before\r\nmoving over Nova Scotia in about 36 hours. After that time, Arthur\r\nis expected to continue across Newfoundland and into the North\r\nAtlantic. The NHC track forecast is near the center of the guidance\r\nenvelope through 72 hours and is close to the GEFS ensemble\r\nmean at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is\r\navailable at: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 36.0N  75.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 38.4N  72.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 42.2N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 45.5N  64.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 47.5N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 53.5N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 59.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0600Z 63.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nThe eye of Arthur remains evident in geostationary satellite imagery\r\nalthough the cloud tops surrounding the eye have warmed this\r\nmorning.  The U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has\r\nmeasured 94-kt 700 mb flight-level winds in the southeastern\r\nquadrant, but it appears that these winds are not effectively mixing\r\ndown to the surface, as peak SFMR surface winds have been 68 kt.\r\nUsing a blend of the these data, the initial intensity has been\r\nreduced to 80 kt.  Arthur will be moving over cooler water and the\r\nshear will be significantly increasing through tonight, which should\r\ncause gradual weakening. The hurricane will also interact with a\r\ndeep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be moving off\r\nthe United States east coast later today.  This should cause the\r\nhurricane to complete transition into an extratropical cyclone in\r\nabout 24 hours.  After that time, continued weakening is expected\r\nwhile the post-tropical cyclone moves over the North Atlantic.\r\n\r\nArthur is moving northeastward with an initial motion of 040/21 kt.\r\nThe hurricane should continue moving northeastward during the next\r\n24 to 36 hours ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough. The\r\ncenter of the cyclone is forecast to move over Nova Scotia on\r\nSaturday and track models are in good agreement on this portion of\r\nthe forecast.  The track guidance become very divergent after 48\r\nhours, with the ECMWF taking the cyclone northward and northwestward\r\nwhile the GFS shows an east-northeastward motion near Newfoundland.\r\nOut of continuity for the previous forecasts, the NHC track\r\ncontinues to follow the eastward scenario shown by the GFS and GFS\r\nensemble mean, but it now shows a somewhat slower motion by day 5.\r\nIt is possible that this portion of the track will need to be\r\nadjusted in future forecasts.\r\n\r\nHourly position updates and two-hourly intermediate advisories have\r\nbeen discontinued.  Three-hourly intermediate advisories will\r\ncontinue as long as coastal warnings remain in effect.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 37.7N  73.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 40.2N  70.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 44.0N  66.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 46.1N  63.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 48.0N  59.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 55.0N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 59.0N  46.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1200Z 62.0N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Arthur remains very symmetric with a hint of an\r\neye remaining in visibile and infrared satellite imagery, although\r\nthe cloud tops have continued to gradually warm during the day.\r\nRecent reconnaissance data show that the radius of maximum winds has\r\nincreased, which is likely the first sign that the hurricane is\r\nbeginning the transition to a post-tropical cyclone. The aircraft\r\ndata also indicate that the winds aloft are not mixing down as\r\nefficiently as they were overnight and this morning. In fact, during\r\nthe latest pass through the southeastern quadrant the aircraft\r\nmeasured a peak 700-mb flight level wind of 103 kt, but the surface\r\nwinds underneath were only 63 kt. Based on these data, the initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 70 kt.  Arthur is now located over sea\r\nsurface temperatures of around 24C. The hurricane will be moving\r\nover progressively colder waters and into an area of increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear, which should result in continued weakening.\r\nGlobal model guidance indicates that Arthur should become\r\npost-tropical tomorrow morning.  After the extratropical transition,\r\nthe cyclone is forecast to continue weakening as it moves over the\r\nNorth Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 040/23 kt. The hurricane should\r\ncontinue to move northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours in\r\ndeep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer\r\ntrough. After that time, the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to\r\nslow down and eventually turn east-northeastward.  There is still\r\na large amount of spread in the track guidance after 48 hours. The\r\nupdated NHC forecast is between the ECWMF and GFS models, and leans\r\ntoward guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nWinds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected\r\nover portions of eastern Maine on Saturday.  Because Arthur is\r\nexpected to be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the\r\nstrong winds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being\r\nhandled by high wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 39.4N  71.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 42.2N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 45.3N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 47.0N  61.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 49.4N  57.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 56.0N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 60.0N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1800Z 61.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Arthur","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite and radar data indicates that Arthur has begun\r\nextratropical transition.  The eye feature seen previously has\r\ndissipated, and the remaining convection is now displaced somewhat\r\nto the northeast of the low-level center.  In addition, microwave\r\ntotal precipitable water data from a recent SSM/IS overpass shows\r\nvery dry air entraining into the west and south sides of the\r\ncyclone.  SFMR data from the previous Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter flight showed maximum winds of 60-65 kt, and based on this\r\nthe initial intensity is reduced to a possibly generous 65 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 045/27 kt.  Arthur should continue to move\r\nnortheastward during the next 24-36 hours in deep-layer\r\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough over the\r\nnortheastern United States.  After that time, the post-tropical\r\ncyclone is forecast to slow down and eventually turn\r\neast-northeastward.  Based on the current motion and model trends,\r\nthis part of the forecast has been nudged a little to the east of\r\nthe previous track.  There remains a large amount of spread in the\r\ntrack guidance after 48 hours on whether the former Arthur will turn\r\nmore northward or turn east-northeastward out into the Atlantic. The\r\nnew official forecast during that period has been revised based on\r\na blend of input from the Ocean Prediction Center along with the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nArthur is expected to complete extratropical transition in about 12\r\nhours.  After transition, the former tropical cyclone should\r\nsteadily weaken, with winds dropping below gale force by 96 hours.\r\nThe intensity forecast has been revised downward based on input from\r\nthe OPC, as well as from the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nWinds in excess of gale/tropical storm force are expected over\r\nportions of eastern Maine on Saturday.  Because Arthur is expected\r\nto be extratropical by Saturday morning, and because the strong\r\nwinds in Maine will be post-frontal, this threat is being handled by\r\nhigh wind warnings issued by local NWS offices.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 41.2N  68.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 44.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 46.5N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 48.5N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 51.5N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 58.0N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 60.0N  49.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/0000Z 61.5N  44.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arthur","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n500 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane\r\nindicate that Arthur is rapidly losing tropical characteristics. The\r\nlow-level center is now displaced from the convection, and the rain\r\nshield has expanded significantly toward the northwest. However,the\r\ncirculation is still vigorous given that there was a peak wind of\r\n83 knots at 850 mb reported by the Air Force plane. These strong\r\nwinds are not reaching the surface, and the initial intensity is set\r\nat 60 knots based on SFMR reports. Arthur should complete\r\nextratropical transition later today and should weaken.\r\n\r\nArthur has slowed down as anticipated and is moving toward the\r\nnortheast at 19 knots. The cyclone should continue on this\r\ngeneral track steered by the southwesterly flow ahead of a\r\nmid-latitude trough. In fact, most of the global models show Arthur\r\nbecoming associated with this trough in about 12 to 24 hours.\r\n\r\nBoth intensity and track forecasts during the post-tropical\r\nstage have been adjusted based on input from the OPC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 43.1N  66.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 45.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 47.0N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 49.5N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 52.5N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 60.0N  51.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 58.5N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/0600Z 62.1N  43.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Arthur","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012014\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014\r\n\r\nSurface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data\r\nindicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC\r\nthis morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind\r\nobservations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the\r\ninitial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone\r\nshould continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are\r\nexpected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours.  The cyclone is\r\nnow forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt.  A\r\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward\r\nspeed is expected during the next day or so.  A turn toward the\r\nnorth and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few\r\ndays.  The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous\r\nforecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward\r\nthereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance.\r\n\r\nThis will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur.  For additional\r\ninformation, including warnings, consult products issued by the\r\nCanadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html\r\n\r\nStatements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by\r\nthe Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in\r\nFrench at WOCN41 CWHX.  For marine interests, additional\r\ninformation can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the\r\nNational Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO\r\nheader FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 45.0N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 47.0N  63.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 52.0N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 56.0N  53.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 60.5N  54.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 60.5N  52.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown/Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an\r\nincrease in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the\r\nconvection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and\r\norganization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT\r\npass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the\r\nsurface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the\r\nconvection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and\r\nare initiating advisories at this time.\r\n\r\nThe initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass.\r\nThe environment is marginal, at best, for development during the\r\nnext couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal\r\nSSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it\r\napproaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and\r\nthe HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72\r\nhours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could\r\ndissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity\r\nforecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given\r\nmuch weight in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The\r\ncyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its\r\nlife span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward\r\nheading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is\r\nclose to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that\r\nthe global models are having a difficult time tracking the small\r\nvortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower\r\nthan usual.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 11.6N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 11.9N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 12.3N  48.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 12.8N  51.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 13.4N  54.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 15.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n1100 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014\r\n\r\nThe compact depression has not changed much during the past several\r\nhours.  The system is producing a small area of deep convection near\r\nthe center and a few fragmented bands mainly on the south side of\r\nthe circulation.  An ASCAT pass around 0010 UTC captured the western\r\nhalf of the system and indicated that winds are light and variable\r\nto the south of the center, suggesting that the system has not\r\nbecome better defined.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models, both regional and global, are in good\r\nagreement in showing the system weakening into a trough by the time\r\nit reaches the Lesser Antilles.  The primary reasons for the\r\nweakening in these models appear to be dry air and possibly\r\nmid-level shear.  The SHIPS and LGEM models show the cyclone gaining\r\nstrength, but this scenario seems unlikely given the\r\nexpected unfavorable environmental conditions.  The official\r\nintensity forecast follows the trend in the dynamical model\r\nguidance, and is the same as the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that depression has moved a little to the\r\nnorth of the previous track, and the latest initial motion estimate\r\nis 280/14.  A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should\r\nkeep it moving westward to west-northwestward during the next few\r\ndays.  This track takes the depression, or its remnants, over the\r\nLesser Antilles in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC track forecast is a little\r\nto the north of the previous one, primarily to account for the\r\ninitial position, and lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus\r\nTVCA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 12.0N  45.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 12.5N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 13.0N  49.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 13.5N  52.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 14.5N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 16.7N  63.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n500 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the appearance of the depression in\r\novernight infrared satellite imagery.  The cyclone continues to\r\nproduce a small area of convection that is organized into a band\r\nover the western and southwestern portions of the circulation. The\r\ninitial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, which is\r\nsupported by a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 2.0.\r\n\r\nAs previous advisories have noted, the environment ahead of the\r\ndepression does not favor strengthening.  Dry air and an increase in\r\nshear are expected to cause weakening during the next day or two,\r\nand all of the dynamical models show the system becoming a trough of\r\nlow pressure by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles.  The NHC\r\nforecast follows this reasoning and calls for dissipation in 2 to\r\n3 days.\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression has been difficult to locate overnight,\r\nbut it appears to still be moving westward or 280 degrees at 14 kt.\r\nThe depression or its remnants are forecast to continue moving\r\nwestward to west-northwestward to the south of a strong deep-layer\r\nridge during the next few days.  The track guidance is tightly\r\nclustered, but has shifted southward this cycle.  As a result, the\r\nnew NHC track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 12.2N  46.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 12.5N  48.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 13.0N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 13.5N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 14.5N  58.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n1100 AM AST TUE JUL 22 2014\r\n\r\nThe depression continues to produce deep convection in a band to the\r\nwest and southwest of the center and the initial intensity remains\r\n30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. There is\r\nno change to the intensity forecast reasoning, as the cyclone will\r\nbe moving through an environment of dry air and increasing shear\r\nthat will not favor strengthening. The global models and the HWRF\r\nshow the vortex weakening and opening up into a trough near the\r\nLesser Antilles by 48 hours or shortly thereafter. The NHC forecast\r\nincludes a 48-h point as a remnant low, but it would not be\r\nsurprising if the system had already dissipated by that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/15, as the depression continues\r\nto be steered by a deep-layer ridge to the north. A quick westward\r\nto west-northwestward motion is expected to continue through\r\ndissipation. The dynamical track model guidance remains in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the new NHC track is largely an\r\nupdate of the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 12.6N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 12.9N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 13.3N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 13.9N  56.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 14.8N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n500 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the depression has become less\r\nimpressive this afternoon. The coverage and structure of the cold\r\ncloud tops has decreased, and visible imagery suggests that the\r\nlow-level center is located on the east side of the convective\r\ncanopy. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest TAFB\r\nDvorak classification. The intensity forecast reasoning remains\r\nunchanged, as the dry air surrounding the cyclone already appears to\r\nbe taking a toll on the system. The dry air and an increase in shear\r\nshould result in gradual weakening and the cyclone opening up into a\r\ntrough in a couple of days near the Lesser Antilles, although a\r\n48-hour remnant low point is provided for continuity. It is also\r\npossible that the system could dissipate even sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/16, and a quick westward to\r\nwest-northwestward motion is expected to continue through\r\ndissipation as the depression is steered by a deep-layer ridge to\r\nthe north. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one and is\r\nclose to the latest GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 12.9N  49.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 13.2N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 13.8N  55.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 14.5N  58.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 15.5N  62.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n1100 PM AST TUE JUL 22 2014\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression is producing a little more deep convection\r\nthan it was earlier today.  Satellite images indicate that the\r\nconvective pattern consists of a small circular area of\r\nthunderstorms near the estimated center, with limited banding\r\nfeatures surrounding it.  The initial wind speed remains 30 kt\r\nbased on a Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from\r\nUW-CIMSS.\r\n\r\nThe global models show the depression becoming highly titled in the\r\nvertical during the next day or so due to a substantial increase in\r\nshear.  These unfavorable environmental winds combined with a dry\r\nair mass should prevent significant strengthening.  The cyclone is\r\nforecast to become a remnant low or open into a trough in 36 to 48\r\nh, but this could occur sooner as suggested by some of the models.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at about 16 kt.  An even\r\nfaster westward to west-northwestward motion is predicted, taking\r\nthe depression, or its remnants, across the the Lesser Antilles\r\nlate Wednesday or on Thursday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 13.4N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 13.7N  53.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.4N  57.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 15.1N  61.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 15.9N  65.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n500 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014\r\n\r\nThe small tropical depression has maintained an area of deep\r\nconvection overnight. However, recent microwave imagery indicates\r\nthat the convection is not particularly well organized.  An AMSR2\r\nimage from 0435 UTC also shows that the circulation may be losing\r\ndefinition.  The depression is currently passing just south of\r\nNOAA Buoy 41040 which has recently reported a peak one-minute\r\nwind of 27 kt and a minimum pressure of 1013.8 mb.  Based on a TAFB\r\nDvorak classification and the buoy observations, the initial wind\r\nspeed remains 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe environment ahead of the depression is forecast to become even\r\nmore hostile than it has been, due to increasing vertical shear and\r\ndry air.  These conditions should cause the depression to weaken\r\nduring the next day or so, and the cyclone is expected to degenerate\r\ninto a trough of low pressure within 48 hours.  All of the\r\ndynamical models show the depression becoming an open trough before\r\nreaching the Lesser Antilles, and it is quite possible that the\r\ncyclone will dissipate sooner than shown below.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is west-northwestward at 17 kt.  The\r\ndepression or its remnants will continue moving west-northwestward\r\nto westward with some increase in forward speed during the next day\r\nor so.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and is near the consensus of the ECMWF and GFS models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 13.9N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 14.3N  56.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 14.9N  59.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 15.4N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Two","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022014\r\n1100 AM AST WED JUL 23 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery indicate that the depression has weakened\r\novernight, with only a weak swirl remaining with no deep\r\nconvection.  Low-level cloud motions show no evidence of a closed\r\nsurface circlation so this is the last advisory on this system\r\nissued by NHC.  The remnants of the depression are expected to move\r\nthrough the Lesser Antilles this evening with some areas of gusty\r\nwinds and showers.\r\n\r\nFurther information on this system can be found in High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 14.0N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF TWO\r\n 12H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 PM AST THU JUL 31 2014\r\n\r\nReports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier\r\nthis afternoon and evening indicated that the well-defined low\r\npressure system located about 250 nmi east-southeast of Barbados had\r\nsurface winds of about 40 kt north and northeast of the center.\r\nSince the departure of the aircraft, a band of deep convection has\r\ndeveloped near and to the north and east of the low-level center,\r\nand now has enough organization to consider this system a tropical\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Bertha is moving along\r\nthe southern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge located to the\r\nnorth based on earlier dropsonde data obtained by a NOAA\r\nGulfstream-IV jet aircraft. The NHC model guidance is in excellent\r\nagreement on the cyclone maintaining a general west-northwestward\r\nmotion for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a gradual turn\r\ntoward the northwest after that through 96 hours. By Day 5, Bertha\r\nis expected to turn northward as it moves around the western portion\r\nof the ridge. The official forecast track is similar to but slightly\r\nnorth of the consensus model, TVCA.\r\n\r\nThe environment surrounding Bertha is not particularly favorable\r\nfor significant strengthening during the next two days due\r\nto modest westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture. However,\r\nthe cyclone will be moving over increasing SSTs and within an\r\nupper-level atmosphere that is slightly cooler than normal. The\r\nresultant increase in instability could allow for some slight\r\nstrengthening to occur before Bertha interacts with Puerto Rico\r\nand eastern Hispaniola in about 48 hours or so. After the cyclone\r\nclears land, some slight re-strengthening is possible based on the\r\nSHIPS model indicating that the vertical shear decreasing to less\r\nthan 10 kt and SSTs increasing to near 29C. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the consensus model ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 12.3N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.2N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 14.5N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 16.1N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 17.9N  67.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 26.8N  75.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 32.0N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nBertha is a sheared tropical cyclone with the center located on the\r\nwestern edge of the deep convection as indicated by satellite. The\r\nlow-level circulation continues to be vigorous, but given the\r\ncurrent westerly shear the outflow is very limited. There are no\r\nreasons to change the initial intensity which is kept at 40 knots.\r\nAnother Air Force reconnaissance plane will investigate Bertha in\r\nthe next several hours.\r\n\r\nThe current shear environment is not particularly favorable for\r\nstrengthening, but there are some indications by the global models\r\nthat the shear could decrease some as Bertha moves across the\r\nnortheastern Caribbean Sea. This should allow some slight\r\nintensification during the next 24 to 36 hours. Once Bertha's\r\ncirculation moves away from Hispaniola beyond 48 hours, there is an\r\nopportunity for additional strengthening if the shear becomes\r\nlighter as suggested by global and statistical models. At this time,\r\nthe NHC forecast keeps Bertha with 45-knot winds over the\r\nwestern Atlantic until it becomes more certain that the shear could\r\nsubside.\r\n\r\nBertha continues racing toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees\r\nat 17 knots. The cyclone is being steered by the flow around the\r\nAtlantic subtropical ridge which is forecast to persist. Once in\r\nthe western Atlantic near the eastern Bahamas, Bertha will be\r\nsteered by the southerly flow between the subtropical high\r\nand a mid-level trough over the eastern United States. This pattern\r\nwill force Bertha to turn northward with a decrease in forward speed\r\nand to eventually recurve northeastward over the Atlantic. The\r\nconfidence in the track forecast, primarily in the next 2 to 3\r\ndays, is high since most the guidance is tightly clustered. The\r\nconfidence decreases after 3 days when the guidance becomes\r\ndivergent. The track envelope, however, brings Bertha northward\r\nand then northeastward over the Atlantic, and the NHC forecast\r\nfollows closely the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 13.0N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 14.0N  59.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 15.5N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 17.2N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 19.5N  68.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 24.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 29.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 35.0N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nBertha is disorganized this morning.  While satellite imagery shows\r\na well-defined low-cloud swirl exposed just west of the main\r\nconvective mass, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\r\nAircraft show that the wind field more resembles that of an open\r\nwave. The aircraft did report 56 kt winds at 1500 feet to the\r\neast-northeast of the center, along with an area of SFMR surface\r\nwinds in excess of 40 kt.  Based on this, the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 295/18, and over the past few hours\r\nBertha may be moving even faster.  The cyclone is currently being\r\nsteered by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge and this\r\nshould continue for the next 48 hours or so.  After that time, the\r\ncyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge\r\ncaused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States.  This\r\nshould be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over the\r\nAtlantic north of Bermuda.  The track guidance remains in good\r\nagreement with this scenario, and it has changed little since the\r\nprevious advisory.  The new forecast track is therefore an update of\r\nthe previous forecast.\r\n\r\nBertha is currently experiencing about 15-20 kt of southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear. and water vapor imagery shows dry\r\nmid-/upper-level air near the storm.  The forecast track calls for\r\nBertha to interact with one or two upper-level troughs during the\r\nnext 48-72 hours, which should cause some shear and dry air\r\nentrainment to continue.  This, combined with the current lack\r\nof organization, suggests little change in strength should\r\noccur during  the next 48 hours or so. After that time, Bertha is\r\nexpected to move into an environment of less shear and greater\r\nmoisture.  The intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening\r\nduring that time, but it is weaker than all of the guidance except\r\nthe Florida State Superensemble. An alternative scenario is that a\r\ncombination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction\r\ncauses Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48\r\nhours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when\r\nthe system reaches the more favorable environment.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 14.0N  58.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 15.0N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 16.6N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 18.6N  67.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 20.9N  70.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 26.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 31.5N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 36.5N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nEarlier observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft and recent surface observations from Martinique indicate\r\nthat Bertha still has a closed circulation, although the area of\r\nwesterly winds south of the center is rather small.  The aircraft-\r\nreported pressures were 1006-1007 mb, and the Martinique data\r\nsuggests a current central pressure of 1007 mb.  Based on this and\r\nthe aircraft wind data, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  New\r\nconvection is currently developing in this bands near the center,\r\nwith a more solid area of convection farther east.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 290/21.  Bertha continues to be steered\r\nwest-northwestward by the flow around the Atlantic subtropical ridge\r\nand this should continue for the next 36-48 hours.  After that time,\r\nthe cyclone is expected to turn northward into a break in the ridge\r\ncaused by a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States.  This\r\nmotion should be followed by recurvature into the westerlies over\r\nthe Atlantic between Bermuda and New England, and then by a\r\nnortheastward motion over the open North Atlantic.  While the track\r\nguidance has nudged a little to the left since 6 hours ago, it\r\nremains in good agreement with this scenario.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is therefore tweaked just a little to the left of the previous\r\ntrack, and it is a little faster than the previous track after\r\nrecurvature.\r\n\r\nBertha continues to experience about 15 kt of southwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear, and a combination of water vapor imagery and microwave\r\ntotal precipitable water shows abundant dry air near the storm.  The\r\nforecast track calls for Bertha to interact with one or two upper-\r\nlevel troughs during the next 48 hours or so, which should cause\r\nsome shear and dry air entrainment to continue.  This, combined with\r\nthe current lack of organization, suggests little change in strength\r\nshould occur during that time.  This part of the new intensity\r\nforecast is unchanged from the previous forecast. Subsequently,\r\nBertha is expected to move into an environment of less shear and\r\ngreater moisture.  The intensity guidance responds to this by\r\nforecasting significant intensification, with several models showing\r\nBertha becoming a hurricane during recurvature.  Based on this, the\r\nlatter part of the intensity forecast is nudged upward from the\r\nprevious forecast, although it is still weaker than most of the\r\nguidance.  An alternative scenario remains possible: that a\r\ncombination of shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction\r\ncauses Bertha to degenerate to a tropical wave during the next 48\r\nhours, followed by possible regeneration in the 72-120 hours when\r\nthe system reaches the more favorable environment.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 14.9N  61.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 16.0N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 17.8N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 19.9N  69.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 22.4N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 27.5N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 33.5N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 38.5N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nWhile some convection developed near the estimated center during the\r\npast few hours, the circulation of Bertha remains disorganized. In\r\nfact, the Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been unable to find a center\r\nat 5000 ft this evening. However, surface observations suggested\r\nthat there was still a small closed surface circulation when Bertha\r\nmoved between Martinique and Dominica a few hours ago. The estimated\r\ncenter position is on the southwestern edge of the convective\r\ncanopy, consistent with the 16 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed by\r\nthe SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on\r\nseveral SFMR winds of 40-45 kt reported by the aircraft east and\r\nnortheast of the center.\r\n\r\nWhile the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing on Saturday, Bertha\r\nwill continue moving through a dry environment during the next 24 to\r\n36 hours. There is also the potential for land interaction with\r\nPuerto Rico and Hispaniola during this time, which could disrupt the\r\nsmall circulation. Given all of these factors, little change in\r\nintensity is expected through 36 hours. After that time, if Bertha\r\nsurvives, the environment is expected to become more favorable for\r\nintensification with warming SSTs, increasing moisture, and lower\r\nvertical shear. Much of the intensity guidance shows Bertha reaching\r\nhurricane strength in 72 to 96 hours, and the official forecast\r\nfollows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted\r\nupward from 48 to 96 hours, but remains a little below the IVCN\r\nintensity consensus. Note that it is possible that the combination\r\nof shear, dry air, and land interaction could cause Bertha to\r\ndegenerate to a tropical wave during the next 36 hours, followed by\r\npossible regeneration when the system reaches the more favorable\r\nenvironment later in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/19, as Bertha is being steered\r\nwest-northwestward by a deep-layer subtropical ridge over the\r\nwestern Atlantic. The ridge will begin to erode after 24 hours as a\r\nmid- to upper-level trough moves through the eastern United States,\r\nwhich should allow Bertha to turn northwestward and then northward\r\nby 3 days. After that time, Bertha is expected to complete\r\nrecurvature and accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic.\r\nThe track model guidance remains in good agreement on this general\r\nscenario, however, there is a fair bit of spread in how sharply\r\nBertha will recurve. The GFS and GEFS ensemble mean lie on the\r\neastern edge of the guidance envelope, with the ECMWF, HWRF, and\r\nGFDL showing a more gradual turn and a track a little farther west.\r\nThrough 36 hours the new NHC track is an update of the previous one.\r\nAfter that time, the official forecast has been nudged toward the\r\nleft, but lies a little to the right of the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 15.7N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 16.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 19.0N  68.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 21.4N  71.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 24.0N  73.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 30.0N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 35.5N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 40.0N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nBertha is a disorganized tropical cyclone, but based on earlier\r\nreconnaissance aircraft data, it is still producing winds of 40 to\r\n45 knots.  Satellite data show that the low-level center is exposed\r\nwith most of the showers and squalls to the north and east. San Juan\r\nPuerto Rico radar also shows the circulation associated with the\r\ncyclone.  Another plane will be investigating Bertha in a few hours.\r\nThe shear has not decreased, but global models insist on forecasting\r\na little more conducive upper-level environment in 24 hours or so.\r\nIf the cyclone survives the current shear, and the interaction with\r\nPuerto Rico and Hispaniola, it could strengthen slightly over the\r\nopen Atlantic as indicated in the NHC forecast. In fact, this is the\r\nsolution of the SHIPS and HWRF models.\r\n\r\nBertha continues to be embedded within a strong easterly flow south\r\nof the subtropical ridge, and the cyclone is racing toward the\r\nwest-northwest of 295 degrees at about 19 knots. However, in about\r\n24 to 36 hours, Bertha will reach the southwestern edge of\r\nthe ridge and will likely slow down a little. The cyclone will then\r\nmove northward and northeastward over the Atlantic, steered by the\r\nsoutherly flow between the ridge and a trough over the eastern\r\nUnited States. This is the solution of most of the dynamical models\r\nwhich indeed are in pretty good agreement. The NHC forecast follows\r\nthe multi-model consensus and is very similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 16.3N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.8N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 20.0N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 22.5N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 25.0N  73.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 31.0N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 36.0N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 40.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nBertha remains a disorganized tropical cyclone this morning, as\r\neven with the aid of Doppler radar data it is difficult to find\r\na closed circulation.  The low-level center is near the western edge\r\nof the main convective mass, which indicates the system is still\r\naffected by vertical wind shear.  However, the convection has become\r\na little better organized during the past 24 hours, and the outflow\r\nis improving over the eastern semicircle.  The initial intensity\r\nremains 45 kt based on a combination of continuity and Doppler radar\r\ndata.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/19.  Bertha is approaching the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn\r\nnorthwest during the next 6-12 hours.  A turn toward the north\r\nshould occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the ridge\r\nand a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States.  After\r\nthat, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance is in excellent\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is generally\r\nsimilar to the previous track.  There has been a small westward\r\nshift during the first 12-24 hours, with the center now forecast to\r\nmake landfall over the eastern Dominican Republic.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is expected during the next 36 hours or\r\nso as Bertha deals with lingering shear, dry air entrainment, and\r\npassage over the mountains of Hispaniola.  After that, the cyclone\r\nis expected to move into a more favorable environment that could\r\nallow strengthening.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged from\r\nthe previous advisory, calling for Bertha to become a hurricane\r\nfor a short time after recurvature.  It is possible that passage\r\nover the Dominican Republic could cause Bertha to degenerate to a\r\ntropical wave.  Should that happen, there would be a chance for\r\nregeneration when the system reaches the more favorable environment\r\nto the north.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.2N  66.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.8N  68.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 21.2N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 23.6N  73.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 26.4N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 32.5N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 37.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 42.0N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nBertha has maintained some organized convection over the eastern\r\nsemicircle during the past several hours.  However, the system\r\nbarely qualifies as a tropical cyclone, as a combination of NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft and surface data cannot definitively close\r\noff the circulation.  The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt\r\nbased on a combination of surface observations and data from the San\r\nJuan WSR-88D Doppler radar.  It should be noted that Bertha\r\ncontinues to suffer from dry air entrainment and northwesterly\r\nvertical shear, and advisories could be discontinued tonight or\r\nSunday if the system becomes any less organized.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 300/19.  Bertha is approaching the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and should turn\r\nnorthwestward during the next several hours.  A turn toward the\r\nnorth should occur in about 48 hours as Bertha moves between the\r\nridge and a deep-layer trough over the southeastern United States.\r\nAfter that, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance remains in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the new forecast track is\r\nagain generally similar to the previous track.\r\n\r\nThere are now three possible scenarios for the intensity of Bertha.\r\nThe scenario for the official forecast is that Bertha survives its\r\ncurrent lack of structure, land interaction, and dry air\r\nentrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in\r\nabout 36 hours.  At that point, it would likely intensify until\r\nthe onset of extratropical transition in 96-120 hours.  Using this\r\nscenario, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nforecast and calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in about 96\r\nhours.  The second scenario is that Bertha degenerates to a tropical\r\nwave as it passes over Hispaniola, with possible regeneration later\r\nwhen the system reaches the more favorable environment.  A new third\r\npossibility involves a low pressure area currently developing over\r\nthe northwestern Bahamas.  The UKMET and NAVGEM forecast this low to\r\nget strong enough to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the\r\nother models are less bullish on the its development.  Later model\r\nruns should help determine the likelihood of this scenario.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.4N  68.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 20.0N  70.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 22.5N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 25.1N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 28.0N  74.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 34.0N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 38.5N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 43.5N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nWhile there has been some increase in the coverage of cold\r\nconvective tops associated with Bertha this evening, the cyclone\r\nremains disorganized. Surface observations from the Dominican\r\nRepublic have not definitively shown a closed circulation, and it is\r\npossible that what surface circulation there was has been disrupted\r\nby land interaction. We will maintain Bertha as a tropical cyclone\r\nfor now, but advisories could be discontinued on Sunday if the\r\norganization of the system does not improve. The initial intensity\r\nremains 40 kt based on rain-adjusted SFMR winds reported by the Air\r\nForce Hurricane Hunter aircraft well east of the center prior to 00\r\nUTC.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate of 310/19 is based on a blend of the\r\nlatest satellite imagery and continuity. The synoptic reasoning\r\nfor the track forecast remains unchanged. Bertha will continue\r\nmoving northwestward along the southwestern periphery of the\r\nsubtropical ridge tonight and Sunday. Then the cyclone will\r\nturn northward on Monday between the ridge and a deep-layer trough\r\nover the southeastern United States, followed by a northeastward\r\nacceleration into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model\r\nguidance remains in good agreement on this general scenario.\r\nHowever, the models have shifted to the left this cycle at 48 hours\r\nand beyond, showing a more gradual recurvature. The NHC track\r\nthrough 36 hours is largely an update of the previous one. After\r\nthat time, the official forecast has been adjusted to the left of\r\nthe previous one, but now lies along the right side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nThere continue to be three possible scenarios for the intensity of\r\nBertha. The official forecast assumes that Bertha will survive its\r\ncurrent lack of structure, land interaction, shear, and dry air\r\nentrainment long enough to reach a more favorable environment in\r\n24-36 hours. At that point, the environment would likely allow for\r\nintensification until extratropical transition begins after 96\r\nhours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in 4 days, and is close\r\nto the latest IVCN intensity consensus. An alternate scenario is\r\nthat Bertha degenerates to a tropical wave in the next 12 to 24\r\nhours, with possible regeneration later when the system reaches the\r\nmore favorable environment. A third possibility involves a trough of\r\nlow pressure currently situated over the central and northwestern\r\nBahamas. The 1200 UTC runs of the UKMET and NAVGEM forecast the\r\nlow to absorb Bertha in 48 hours or so, while the latest GFS and\r\nECMWF runs keep this system weaker and maintain Bertha through the\r\nforecast period. Later model runs should help refine the likelihood\r\nof this scenario.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 19.5N  69.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 21.5N  71.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 24.1N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 27.2N  74.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 30.4N  73.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 36.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 41.0N  60.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 45.0N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe overall convective pattern of Bertha has changed little since\r\nthe previous advisory.  The center position has been difficult to\r\ndetermine and is based on a blend of the past motion and available\r\nreconissance data.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance was able to\r\nclose off an 850 mb center around 0200 UTC, and a dropsonde released\r\nto the southeast of the alleged center indicated a surface wind of\r\n210 degrees at 21 kt, which implies a west wind of at least 10\r\nkt somewhere in the southern quadrant.  These data are the basis\r\nfor keeping Bertha as a tropical cyclone for this advisory.  Also\r\nduring the outbound leg, the aircraft found rain-contaminated SFMR\r\nsurface winds of 53, 57, and 48 kt in the southeastern quadrant.\r\nAfter adjusting those wind speeds due to rain enhancement yields a\r\nconsecutive 3-bin average speed of about 42 kt, which justifies\r\nmaintaining the intensity at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/18 kt. The NHC model guidance\r\nremains in excellent agreement with Bertha gradually moving\r\nnorthward and then northeastward around the periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer subtropical ridge located along 28N latitude and ahead\r\nof an broad mid-level trough that is located over the eastern\r\nUnited States through 72 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected\r\nto become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate\r\nnortheastward and east-northeastward as it becomes extratropical or\r\nmerges with a frontal system in 96-120 hours. The NHC track forecast\r\nis essentially just an update of the previous advisory, only\r\nslightly faster, and follows the trend of the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nIt is possible that Bertha could briefly open up into a wave this\r\nmorning due to strong northwesterly shear of at least 25 kt.\r\nHowever, the environment ahead of the cyclone for about the next 48\r\nhours is expected to become increasingly more conducive for at\r\nleast gradual strengthening to occur, especially at 36-48 hours when\r\nthe vertical shear is expected to decrease to near 10 kt while SSTs\r\nand mid-level moisture reach their peak. By 96 hours, extratropical\r\ntransition over sub-23C SSTs and/or merger with a frontal system is\r\nexpected. The ECMWF indicates frontal merger in about 72 hours, but\r\nthis appears be premature based on other available model guidance\r\nand input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC). The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is consistent with the previous advisory, which\r\nnow calls for Bertha to reach hurricane strength by 72 hours.\r\nHowever, this could occur sooner than indicated given that the most\r\nfavorable oceanic and atmospheric conditions become juxtaposed by 48\r\nhours or so. Intensity forecasts during the extratropical phase are\r\nbased on input from OPC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 20.9N  71.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 22.8N  72.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 25.6N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 28.8N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 32.0N  72.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 37.8N  66.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 42.5N  58.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/0600Z 46.0N  47.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of Bertha is\r\nbecoming a little better organized, with some banding features\r\napparent over the eastern portion of the system.  Also, reports\r\nfrom a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low-level\r\ncirculation is becoming better defined.  The current intensity\r\nestimate is held at 40 kt, in agreement with SFMR-observed surface\r\nwinds from the aircraft well to the northeast of the estimated\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate continues to be northwestward, or\r\n320/18 kt.  The track forecast and reasoning are mostly unchanged\r\nfrom the previous advisory.  Over the next couple of days, Bertha\r\nshould move around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric\r\nanticyclone at a slightly slower forward speed.  Thereafter, the\r\ntropical cyclone is likely to turn northeastward and\r\neast-northeastward while accelerating as it moves into the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The current official forecast is fairly\r\nclose to the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nCirrus motions and animation of water vapor imagery show that the\r\nshear over Bertha has begun to relax a little, and this, along with\r\nan increase in mid-level moisture, should allow for some\r\nstrengthening.  In the latter part of the forecast period,\r\nwest-southwesterly shear increases significantly, but by that time\r\nit is anticipated that Bertha will have become an extratropical\r\nstorm over the North Atlantic.  The official wind speed forecast is\r\nthe same as in the previous advisory, and quite similar to the\r\nlatest intensity model consensus, ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 22.2N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 24.3N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 27.4N  74.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 30.7N  73.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 33.7N  71.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 39.5N  64.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 44.0N  55.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1200Z 47.5N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nAfter Bertha's cloud pattern became a little better organized\r\nearlier today, there has been little change in its overall\r\nappearance over the past several hours.  There are limited banding\r\nfeatures over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the\r\ndeep convection is a little ragged-looking.  The upper-level outflow\r\nis becoming a little better defined, but there is still some\r\nnorthwesterly shear over the system.  The current intensity is kept\r\nat 40 kt based on earlier observations from the Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft.  The numerical guidance has become a little less bullish\r\non future strengthening, but the Decay-SHIPS model still calls for\r\nthe cyclone to become a hurricane in 60-72 hours, as does the\r\nofficial forecast.  It should be noted, however, that the intensity\r\nmodel consensus no longer predicts Bertha to become a hurricane.\r\n\r\nBased on an earlier center fix from the aircraft, the working best\r\ntrack has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous\r\nestimates.  The center location is not obvious on the latest\r\nvisible imagery, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat\r\nuncertain 325/16 kt.  The track forecast for the next 48 hours or\r\nso is slightly complicated by a low- to mid-level disturbance that\r\nis currently near Florida.  The U.K. Met. Office global model\r\nforecast shows Bertha interacting with this disturbance and\r\nmoving a little closer to the United States east coast than earlier\r\nruns.  Other global models such as the GFS do not show as much\r\ninteraction and keep Bertha farther offshore.  The new official\r\ntrack forecast has been nudged a little to the left of the previous\r\none and is very close to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 23.3N  73.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 25.8N  73.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 29.0N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 32.6N  73.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 35.7N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 40.5N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 46.0N  53.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1800Z 50.0N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nRecent satellite and aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the\r\ncirculation of Bertha has become much better defined this evening.\r\nThe tropical cyclone has also quickly strengthened as convection\r\nhas increased and become organized in a band around the eastern\r\nportion of the circulation.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft\r\nhas measured peak believable SFMR winds of around 55 kt. Although\r\nthe flight-level winds would support a little lower initial\r\nintensity, a recent dropsonde measured winds in the lowest 150\r\nmeters that also supports an initial wind speed of 55 kt.  The\r\naircraft data also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to\r\naround 1007 mb.\r\n\r\nThe strong northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting\r\nBertha is forecast to decrease further during the next 24 hours.\r\nThis should allow for additional strengthening, and the updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in a day\r\nor so.  In 36 to 48 hours, strong west-southwesterly upper-level\r\nwinds are forecast to cause a significant increase in vertical\r\nshear. The shear, along with decreasing sea surface temperatures,\r\nshould cause some weakening before Bertha becomes an extratropical\r\nlow over the North Atlantic in three to four days.\r\n\r\nBertha is moving north-northwest at 15 kt.  The cyclone should turn\r\nnorthward and then north-northeastward during the next day or so\r\nwhile it moves between a subtropical high to its east and a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough over the eastern United States.  In a couple of\r\ndays, Bertha is expected to accelerate northeastward and then turn\r\neast-northeastward when it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies.\r\nThe model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario\r\nthrough 72 hours, and the new NHC track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory during that time.  There is increasing spread in\r\nthe track guidance after three days with the ECMWF and UKMET models\r\npredicting a much faster motion over the North Atlantic than the\r\nlatest GFS.  The four- and five-day forecast positions are close to\r\nthe model consensus and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 24.9N  73.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 27.3N  73.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 30.8N  73.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 34.1N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 36.9N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 42.2N  59.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 47.5N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0000Z 49.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nConvection has been pulsing near the center, but the overall\r\nconvective cloud pattern of Bertha has changed little since the\r\nprevious advisory due to moderate northwesterly wind shear. Earlier\r\nAir Force Reserve reconnaissance wind data around 0500 UTC supported\r\na 55-kt intensity, especially since the pressure had decreased 3 mb\r\ndown to 1004 mb. However, a NOAA research aircraft has just started\r\nits investigation of the cyclone, and surface wind data support\r\nincreasing the intensity to 60 kt along with a central pressure\r\nfall to about 999 mb.\r\n\r\nBertha is now moving northward or 350/14 kt. There remains no\r\nsignificant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The\r\nlatest NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered and in\r\nexcellent agreement on Bertha continuing to move around the western\r\nperiphery of the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge for the next 36\r\nhours or so, followed by a northeastward acceleration into the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough and frontal\r\nsystem currently approaching the U.S. east coast. The official\r\nforecast track is just a tad to the left of the previous advisory,\r\nand is close to the consensus model TVCA. The 72-, 96-, and 120-hour\r\npositions are based on a blend of input from the NOAA Ocean\r\nPrediction Center. On the forecast track, Bertha is expected to\r\npass about midway between the U.S. coast and Bermuda on Tuesday.\r\n\r\nThe northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Bertha\r\nfor the past few days is now decreasing and is gradually backing\r\naround to a southwesterly direction. In fact, the global models\r\nindicate that Bertha will move underneath a 200 mb ridge axis in\r\n18-24 hours, at which time we should see the cyclone reach hurricane\r\nstatus. That intensity should be short-lived since the shear is\r\nforecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 48 hours and beyond,\r\nwhich should induce at least steady weakening. The intensity,\r\nhowever, has been held higher than normal due to Bertha's expected\r\ntransition to an extratropical cyclone with possible baroclinic\r\nenergy keeping the system fairly strong. Extratropical transition is\r\nexpected by 72 hours, but it could occur sooner due to 50 kt or\r\nmore of shear and SSTs around 20C by that time. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, remaining above the\r\nconsensus models ICON and IVCN, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM intensity models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 26.1N  73.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 28.6N  73.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 31.9N  72.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 35.0N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 37.7N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 43.4N  57.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 47.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0600Z 49.5N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nIn spite of its unimpressive appearance on satellite imagery, with\r\nscant evidence of banding features and relatively disorganized deep\r\nconvection, aerial reconnaissance data indicate that Bertha has\r\nintensified into a hurricane.  Flight-level, dropsonde, and SFMR\r\nwinds from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter planes support an\r\nintensity of 70 kt for this advisory.  Bertha does have well-defined\r\nanticyclonic upper-level outflow over the eastern and southern\r\nportions of the circulation.  Recent infrared imagery shows warming\r\ncloud tops, so the intensity is probably leveling off.  Dynamical\r\nguidance predicts a very large increase in shear beginning in 24-36\r\nhours, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin around that time.\r\nIn about 72 hours, the global models show the cyclone interacting\r\nwith a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Newfoundland, so the NHC\r\nforecast shows Bertha becoming extratropical by that time.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the\r\nmotion is now 360/15 kt.  The track forecast remains relatively\r\nstraightforward.  Over the next couple of days, Bertha should turn\r\ntoward the northeast and accelerate in the flow between a\r\nmid-tropospheric anticyclone over the southwestern Atlantic and a\r\nbroad trough moving off the United States east coast.  Later in the\r\nforecast period, the cyclone should continue moving quickly to the\r\nnortheast or east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerlies.\r\nThe official forecast track is not much different from the previous\r\none, and close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 27.6N  73.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 30.0N  73.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 33.4N  72.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 36.3N  69.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 39.0N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 45.0N  55.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 49.0N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1200Z 49.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nBertha continues to have a disorganized appearance on satellite\r\nimagery.  A small burst of deep convection is occurring just east\r\nof the center, and the system continues to have well-defined\r\nupper-level outflow over the southeastern quadrant.  A NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the tropical\r\ncyclone, and we shall soon see if Bertha is maintaining hurricane\r\nstatus.  Based on wind data from an Air Force mission earlier this\r\nafternoon, which showed a slight decrease, the current intensity is\r\nreduced to 65 kt.  Flight-level wind data from that earlier mission\r\nalso showed that the circulation had a very small extent over the\r\nnorthwestern quadrant, and high-resolution visible imagery shows low\r\nclouds moving northwestward, away from the center, not far from the\r\ncenter over that quadrant.  This suggests that, if the environmental\r\nlow-level flow increases, Bertha may have a difficult time\r\nmaintaining a closed circulation.  For now, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast calls for gradual weakening, and is a little below most of\r\nthe guidance since the shear is predicted to become prohibitively\r\nstrong, 50 kt or more, in just 36 hours.\r\n\r\nFixes from the aircraft showed a gradual increase in forward speed\r\nand the initial motion is around 360/15.  There are no important\r\nchanges to the track forecast or reasoning.  During the next couple\r\nof days, Bertha will be moving between a mid-level high pressure\r\narea over the southwestern Atlantic and a broad trough moving off\r\nthe northeast United States coast.  This should result in a gradual\r\nturn toward the north-northeast and northeast with additional\r\nacceleration during the next 24-48 hours.  Later in the forecast\r\nperiod, Bertha or its post-tropical counterpart should accelerate\r\neast-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north\r\nAtlantic.  The official forecast is similar to the previous one and\r\nlies between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 29.4N  73.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 31.8N  72.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 34.7N  70.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 37.5N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 40.0N  62.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 47.0N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 49.0N  37.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1800Z 49.0N  24.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bertha","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nBertha certainly does not look like a typical hurricane in satellite\r\nimagery this evening.  The center has become partially exposed to\r\nthe northwest of the deep convection.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft that recently investigated the cyclone observed\r\nflight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde winds that all supported hurricane\r\nintensity late this afternoon.  Since that time, the organization\r\nhas degraded a little and it is possible that Bertha has weakened\r\nbelow hurricane strength.  However, new convection has recently\r\nformed just east of the center near where the strongest winds were\r\nmeasured earlier.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 65\r\nkt. This could be generous, but it is best to maintain hurricane\r\nstatus until the the next Hurricane Hunter aircraft examines the\r\nstorm around 0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nBertha is forecast to gradually weaken during the next day or two\r\nwhile it moves into an area of increasing southwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear and over decreasing sea surface temperatures.  On\r\nWednesday, the cyclone is expected to interact with an approaching\r\nmid-latitude trough and Bertha is forecast to become an\r\nextratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic shortly thereafter.\r\n\r\nFixes from the aircraft show that Bertha is moving a little faster\r\nand has turned north-northeastward this evening. The track forecast\r\nreasoning remains unchanged. Bertha is expected to accelerate\r\nnortheastward during the next day or two between a mid-level ridge\r\nover the western Atlantic and a deep-layer trough moving off the\r\nnortheast United States coast.  After Bertha becomes a post-tropical\r\ncyclone in 48 to 72 hours, it is forecast to turn east-northeastward\r\nin the mid-latitude westerly flow over the north Atlantic.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 31.3N  73.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 33.7N  71.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 36.6N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 39.3N  64.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 42.1N  58.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 47.5N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 48.5N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/0000Z 49.5N  15.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate\r\nthat Bertha's winds have decreased below hurricane strength, which\r\nis logical given that little deep convection now exists near the\r\ncenter. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, which\r\ncould generous given that only 45-kt surface winds have been\r\nreported thus far. However, the recon aircraft has not yet completed\r\nits entire mission, so I do not want to bring the intensity\r\ntoo quickly in the event stronger winds are found east of the center\r\nand/or deep convection redevelops.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 015/19 kt. Bertha\r\nbriefly accelerated to about 21-22 kt after losing its deep\r\nconvection a few hours ago, but recon fix data suggests that the\r\ncyclone's motion has settled down to around 19 kt now. Overall, the\r\nofficial track forecast and philosophy remains basically unchanged.\r\nThe NHC model guidance remains in very good agreement on Bertha\r\ncontinuing its northeastward trek around the western periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then\r\naccelerate eastward after getting caught up in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies by 36-48 hours. The official forecast track is similar to\r\nbut slightly west of the previous advisory track to account for the\r\nmore westward initial position, and closely follows the consensus\r\nmodel TVCA.\r\n\r\nBertha is forecast to experience increasing vertical wind shear\r\nover the next two days, with the shear reaching 50 kt or more by\r\n24-36 hours. The combination of the strong shear and decreasing SSTs\r\nshould induce steady weakening and cause extratropical transition\r\nby 36 hours or so. However, not as much weakening is expected with\r\nsuch strong shear conditions due to the expected infusion of\r\nbaroclinic energy associated with a strong mid-latitude trough that\r\nis forecast to capture Bertha by 48 hours, which will help maintain\r\nthe cyclone's intensity. The intensity forecast during the\r\nextratropical phase closely follows input from the NOAA Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 33.4N  72.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 35.9N  70.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 38.6N  66.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 41.3N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 44.1N  56.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 48.5N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 49.3N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/0600Z 50.3N  14.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nIncreasing westerly vertical shear is displacing deep convection to\r\nthe east of the low-level center of Bertha, which is clearly exposed\r\nin visible satellite images.  The current intensity is adjusted down\r\na bit in accordance with observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter\r\nplane a few hours ago.  Since the shear is forecast to become even\r\nstronger over the next couple of days, additional weakening would be\r\nexpected due to those conditions. However, the cyclone might be able\r\nto draw energy from baroclinic process associated with a frontal\r\nzone not far to its north, and maintain at least some of its\r\nintensity.  The system is forecast to merge with that front and\r\nbecome an extratropical cyclone within 36 hours. It is also\r\npossible, however, that the shear will become so strong that Bertha\r\nwould be reduced to a convection-free post-tropical cyclone before\r\nextratropical transition takes place. The NOAA Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter has provided input to the official intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nBertha continues moving north-northeastward near 19 kt.  The\r\ntropical, or post-tropical, cyclone is forecast to accelerate\r\nnortheastward ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough near the\r\nUnited States east coast during the next couple of days. Thereafter,\r\nthe system should move quickly east-northeastward to eastward in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies over the North Atlantic. The track forecast\r\nfor 36 hours and beyond is also based on input from the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 34.8N  71.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 37.1N  69.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 39.8N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 42.5N  59.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 45.0N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 49.0N  40.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 49.0N  22.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1200Z 51.0N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection redeveloped over the center earlier today, but\r\nthat convection was subsequently sheared off to the east-northeast.\r\nAn ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago indicated that, although\r\nBertha still had a well-defined surface circulation, the maximum\r\nwinds were no more than 45 kt, Based on this, and a Dvorak\r\nclassification of T3.0 from TAFB, the advisory intensity is\r\nset at 45 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated that there\r\nwere no winds to tropical storm force over the western semicircle of\r\nthe circulation.  The SHIPS model predicts that west-southwesterly\r\nshear will increase greatly over the next day or two, and these\r\nconditions could cause more weakening than indicated by the\r\nofficial forecast.  However, it is possible that the system may\r\nmaintain more of its intensity by extracting energy from baroclinic\r\nprocesses associated with the frontal system just to its north.  In\r\nany event, global models show the system becoming embedded within\r\nthe frontal zone within 36 hours, so the official forecast indicates\r\nthat the transition to a post-tropical/extratropical cyclone will\r\nbe complete by that time.\r\n\r\nBertha's heading is gradually shifting to the right and the motion\r\nis now 030/18 kt.  There is little change to the track forecast\r\nphilosophy.  Over the next couple of days, the tropical, or\r\npost-tropical, cyclone should turn toward the northeast and\r\naccelerate ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough moving off the\r\nnortheast United States coast.  Later in the forecast period, the\r\nsystem should move swiftly east-northeastward to eastward in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies over the North Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe track and wind radii forecast for 36 hours and beyond have been\r\ncoordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 36.2N  70.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 38.2N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 41.0N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 43.7N  55.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 46.0N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 48.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 49.0N  20.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1800Z 51.0N   1.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nBertha briefly became devoid of thunderstorm activity late\r\nthis afternoon, however a new burst of deep convection has\r\ndeveloped to the northeast of the center this evening.  The initial\r\nwind speed remains 45 kt and is based on a Dvorak classification of\r\nT3.0 from TAFB.  The vertical shear over Bertha has increased to\r\nmore than 40 kt and is expected to increase even further by\r\nWednesday.  Despite the shear, little overall change in strength is\r\npredicted during the next 24 hours since Bertha will transform into\r\nan extratropical low and gain some energy from baroclinic processes\r\nduring that time.\r\n\r\nThe latest fixes indicate that Bertha has turned northeastward\r\nwith a motion of 045/20 kt.  The cyclone should continue\r\nnortheastward during the next 48 hours ahead of a mid-latitude\r\ntrough that is moving off the northeast United States coast.  Later\r\nin the forecast period, the post-tropical cyclone is predicted to\r\nmove east-northeastward to eastward in mid-latitude westerly flow\r\nover the North Atlantic.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 37.5N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 39.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 42.2N  58.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 45.0N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 47.3N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 48.5N  33.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 48.5N  17.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bertha","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 06 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to pulse downshear of the center of\r\nBertha, as the tropical cyclone is situated in a favorable region\r\nfor forced ascent in the equatorward entrance region of an upper-\r\nlevel jet streak. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the\r\nDvorak classification from TAFB and an earlier ASCAT pass that\r\nshowed some 40-45 kt winds east of the center. As Bertha becomes\r\nembedded in the jet, the vertical shear will increase in the next 12\r\nto 24 hours. This should result in the low-level circulation\r\ndecoupling from the convection while the cyclone becomes embedded in\r\na baroclinic zone. Bertha should be post-tropical by 24 hours, and\r\nthen gradually decay as an extratropical cyclone. Bertha is\r\nexpected to be absorbed by day 5, although this could occur sooner.\r\n\r\nThe latest satellite fixes indicate an initial motion of 055/24.\r\nBertha is well embedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a\r\nmid-latitude trough, and will continue moving northeastward over the\r\nnorth Atlantic for the next day or so before turning eastward by 72\r\nhours. The new NHC track is largely an update of the previous one,\r\nand is close to guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 39.0N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 40.8N  61.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 43.6N  55.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 46.0N  49.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 48.0N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 48.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 48.5N  12.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Bertha","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032014\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 06 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Bertha has become associated with a\r\nfrontal system and has acquired extratropical characteristics. The\r\nlow-level center is devoid of deep convection and is on the cold air\r\nside of a frontal cloud band or trough extending from Nova Scotia\r\nsouthwestward to the Bahamas. In addition, there is a strong\r\nwesterly upper-level jet over the system.\r\n\r\nThe low is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 27 knots\r\nsteered by the mid-latitude westerlies. Most of the global models\r\nkeep the post-tropical cyclone moving rapidly northeastward and\r\nthen eastward over the North Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the NHC on Bertha. Additional\r\ninformation on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts\r\nissued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 40.2N  62.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 42.3N  58.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 45.0N  52.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 47.5N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 48.5N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 48.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 48.5N   8.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1200Z...Absorbed\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nThe Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the\r\ndisturbance near the southeastern Bahamas found a well-defined\r\ncirculation this afternoon. Even though the convective presentation\r\nis somewhat ragged, there is enough organization to classify the\r\nsystem as a tropical cyclone. The intensity is set to 30 kt based\r\non flight level wind data from the aircraft and an earlier ASCAT\r\npass, and the central pressure of 1005 mb is based on a recent\r\nsurface observation from Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos. The\r\nSHIPS model shows light to moderate shear over the cyclone for the\r\nnext couple of days, which should allow for intensification given\r\nthat the cyclone will be moving over waters of 29 to 30C. The NHC\r\nforecast shows slow strengthening in the first 24 to 36 hours as\r\nthe cyclone organizes. Global models show more favorable upper-\r\nlevel winds over the system in a couple of days, which should allow\r\nfor strengthening to a hurricane in by 3 days. The official forecast\r\nis close to the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 310/10 given\r\nthe recent formation of the center. The cyclone should continue\r\nmoving northwestward and north-northwestward into a developing break\r\nin the subtropical ridge cause by a mid/upper-level trough off the\r\nU.S. east coast. As the trough begins to lift out and steering\r\ncurrents weaken, a slow motion is expected in 36 to 48 hours. Then\r\nas a subtropical ridge rebuilds to the east of the cyclone later in\r\nthe period, the system is expected to turn northward and then\r\nnortheastward. However, there is significant disagreement in\r\nthe timing and sharpness of the turn in this and previous dynamical\r\nmodel cycles. Currently the GFDL and GFS are along the western\r\nedge of the guidance envelope showing a more westward track and\r\na slower motion at day 5. The ECMWF, GEFS mean, and HWRF show a\r\nsharper turn and a more northeastward motion by day 5 on the east\r\nside of the guidance envelope. The NHC forecast is near the TVCA\r\nmulti-model consensus through most of the period and a little to the\r\nleft of it at day 5. Given the spread in the guidance and the recent\r\nformation of the system, confidence in the details of the track\r\nforecast is lower than normal.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 21.8N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 22.9N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 24.0N  74.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 24.6N  74.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 25.0N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 26.5N  76.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 29.0N  77.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 32.0N  76.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Four has\r\nchanged little in organization during the past several hours.\r\nWhile the convection remains somewhat ragged, a persistent area of\r\nstronger convection has formed near the center.  Data from NOAA and\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum\r\nsustained winds are near 30 kt, which is in agreement with the\r\nsatellite intensity estimate from TAFB.  The cirrus outflow is good\r\nover the eastern semicircle and poor elsewhere.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 320/8.  The cyclone\r\nshould continue moving northwestward and north-northwestward into a\r\ndeveloping break in the subtropical ridge cause by a mid- to upper-\r\nlevel trough off of the U.S. east coast. As the trough begins to\r\nlift out and steering currents weaken, a slow motion is expected in\r\n36 to 48 hours.  The track guidance becomes very divergent at that\r\ntime. The UKMET and the NAVGEM models build enough ridging north of\r\nthe cyclone to steer it across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.\r\nThe Canadian model currently forecasts a quick right turn with the\r\ncyclone moving well out to sea.  The ECMWF and the GFS keep a\r\nstronger ridge east of the cyclone and thus forecast a more\r\nnorthward motion east of the southeastern United States, followed by\r\na northeastward turn. However, the GFS does show a westward wobble\r\njust north of the Bahamas before the turn.  The new forecast track\r\nis nudged a little to the east of the previous track, and it lies a\r\nlittle to the left of the TVCA consensus and the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.  As mentioned in the previous discussion, the\r\nconfidence in the track forecast is lower than normal.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale models suggest that the cyclone should experience\r\nlight to moderate westerly or northwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nthroughout the forecast period.  The intensity guidance forecasts\r\nless strengthening than earlier, which necessitates some downward\r\nadjustment of the new intensity forecast.  Even with this change,\r\nthe new forecast is on the upper edge of the intensity guidance.\r\nOverall, the forecast is close to the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 22.3N  72.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 23.1N  73.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 23.9N  74.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 24.4N  74.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 24.8N  74.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 27.0N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 29.5N  77.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 32.5N  75.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the tropical depression has gradually\r\nimproved overnight.  Convection has increased to the northeast\r\nof the center and a little more banding is noted.   Although the\r\npressure has dropped a few millibars during the past 6 to 12 hours,\r\ndata from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicate that the cyclone remains a 30-kt tropical depression.\r\n\r\nFixes from the aircraft yield an initial motion of 325/8 kt. The\r\ncyclone is expected to slow down and turn north-northwestward today\r\ninto a break in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough\r\nthat is currently moving off the U.S. east coast.  This trough is\r\nforecast to dig southeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours before\r\nlifting northeastward on Tuesday.  The track guidance has shifted\r\nsignificantly eastward this cycle, with the exception of the latest\r\nECMWF, which is very similar to its 1200 UTC run.  The eastward\r\nshift in most of the models appears to be the result of increased\r\ninteraction of the cyclone with the aforementioned trough during the\r\nnext 48 hours.  This leads to a more north-northwestward or\r\nnorthward motion during the next day or so.  Once the trough lifts\r\nout, most of the guidance shows a bend back toward the northwest,\r\nbefore the cyclone turns northward and northeast around a\r\nsubtropical ridge to its east.  The NHC track has been shifted\r\neastward, but it remains along the western side of the\r\nguidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF and continuity of the\r\nprevious forecasts. The new track forecast is closest to the HWRF,\r\nbut is well west of the latest multi-model consensus.  Future\r\neastward adjustments may be required if the eastward model trend\r\ncontinues.  Given that a large spread remains in the guidance,\r\nthe confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.\r\n\r\nLight to moderate northwesterly shear is expected during the next\r\nfew days.  However, the shear is not expected to be strong enough to\r\nprevent strengthening, and the official forecast calls for gradual\r\nintensification throughout the forecast period. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to the SHIPS guidance and the intensity\r\nconsensus ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 22.9N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 23.7N  73.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 24.4N  73.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 25.0N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 25.9N  74.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 28.5N  75.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 31.5N  75.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 34.0N  70.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nThe overall cloud pattern of Cristobal has changed little since\r\nthe previous advisory. Flight-level wind data from the Air Force\r\nReserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft investigating Cristobal\r\nearlier this morning indicated that the low-level and mid-level\r\ncirculations were not vertically aligned, suggesting that the\r\ninner-core wind field of the cyclone is still trying to form. The\r\ninitial intensity of 40 kt is based on 1000-ft flight-level winds of\r\n49 kt and a few reliable SFMR winds of near 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is an uncertain 345/6 kt. There are significant\r\ndifferences noted between the various NHC models. The GFS model and\r\nthe GFS ensemble mean shear the mid-level circulation southward from\r\nthe current position, and take the remaining shallow and weak\r\nlow-level circulation quickly northeastward, which seems unlikely at\r\nthis time given the overall large structure of the cyclone noted in\r\nrecon, satellite, and upper-air data. In contrast, the ECMWF, UKMET,\r\nand NAVGEM models keep Cristobal as a deeper, stronger, and more\r\nvertically coherent cyclone, moving the system only slowly\r\nnorth-northwestward or northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as\r\na strong mid-latitude trough over the Carolinas lifts out to the\r\nnortheast. As the trough lifts out, the subtropical ridge is\r\nexpected to build back in to the north of Cristobal until a second\r\ntrough moves off the U.S. east coast in 4-5 days and weakens the\r\nridge again, allowing Cristobal to move slowly northward and then\r\naccelerate off to the northeast. More weight has been placed the on\r\nthe ECMWF-UKMET-NAVGEM solutions, and the official forecast track\r\nremains near the left side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nLight to moderate northwesterly to northerly shear is expected to\r\naffect Cristobal throughout the forecast period. However, the shear\r\nis not forecast to be strong enough to prevent at least slow\r\nstrengthening, especially given that the upper-level flow is\r\nexpected to be quite diffluent and divergent through at least 48\r\nhours, which will act to enhance convective development. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast remains close to SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 23.6N  73.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 24.2N  73.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 24.9N  73.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 25.7N  73.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 26.6N  74.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 29.3N  74.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 32.2N  73.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 35.0N  67.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal's convective cloud pattern has not changed much during the\r\npast 6 hours, other than cloud tops having warmed some. Aircraft and\r\nsatellite data indicate that the inner-core wind field is still\r\nbroad, with multiple small swirls rotating around a mean center. Air\r\nForce Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate the\r\ncentral pressure has remained steady at 1001 mb, so the initial\r\nintensity will be kept at 40 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is northward or 360/7 kt. The NHC model guidance\r\nhas come into much better agreement on this cycle with the GFS track\r\nhaving shifted westward and the ECMWF model having shifted eastward.\r\nThe rest of the models are reasonably close to the GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions. There is one main difference, however, which is the track\r\nspeed, with the GFS model lagging behind the ECMWF model and some\r\nof the other models by more than 500 n mi at 120 hours. Cristobal\r\nis expected to continue moving northward through a weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge and slow down over the next 72 hours as a strong\r\nupper-level trough east of North Carolina lifts out to the\r\nnortheast. A second trough currently over the upper Midwest is\r\nforecast to dig southeastward along the U.S. east coast by Days 4\r\nand 5 and accelerate the cyclone northeastward over the north\r\nAtlantic. The official forecast track has been shifted eastward\r\nthrough 72 hours, and then shows a faster forward speed similar to\r\nthe ICON consensus model at 96 and 120 hours.\r\n\r\nLight to moderate northwesterly to northerly shear is forecast to\r\naffect Cristobal through 72 hours, which should allow for only slow\r\nstrengthening to occur. When Cristobal makes a northeastward turn\r\nand accelerates after that time, the shear is expected to decrease\r\nwhile the cyclone is over near-29C SST, which should allow Cristobal\r\nto strengthen into a hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus\r\nintensity model ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 24.5N  73.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 24.9N  73.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 25.7N  73.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 26.6N  72.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 28.4N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 31.9N  71.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 35.0N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 39.5N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal is not a well-organized tropical cyclone at this time.\r\nThe deep convection has a ragged appearance, with little or no\r\nbanding features evident, and this convection is mainly\r\noccurring well to the south of the estimated center location.\r\nAfter adjusting for rain inflation, SFMR winds from aircraft\r\nobservations a few hours ago, indicated that the intensity is no\r\nmore than 40 kt.  Also, the fixes from the Air Force and NOAA\r\nplanes, which were flying at altitudes of about 1000 and 8000 feet\r\nrespectively, indicated a southward tilt of the center with height.\r\nThis is consistent with some northerly shear over the storm as\r\nsuggested by water vapor imagery.  Given the currently disorganized\r\nstate of Cristobal, not much intensification seems likely for the\r\nnext 12 hours or so.  Afterwards, the global models are predicting a\r\nlittle more favorable upper-tropospheric environment with\r\nincreasingly diffluent flow over the tropical cyclone.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nguidance, and only a little above the model consensus.  By 120\r\nhours, the global models depict the cyclone embedded within a\r\nbaroclinic zone, so extratropical transition should have occurred by\r\nthat time.\r\n\r\nThe motion has been rather erratic over the past several hours, but\r\nmy best estimate is about 350/4 kt.  Cristobal is currently situated\r\nnear a col between 2 anticyclones in the mid-level flow, one over\r\nthe United States, and one over the central subtropical Atlantic.\r\nThe dynamical models indicate that, within a couple of days,\r\nthe steering of the tropical cyclone will become dominated by flow\r\non the northwest side of the Atlantic anticyclone and on the\r\nsouthern side of a mid-latitude trough.  Therefore, the motion is\r\nexpected to gradually bend to the right with some acceleration over\r\nthe next several days.  The official track forecast is somewhat\r\nfaster than the previous one after 48 hours, but not as fast as the\r\nlatest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 24.8N  73.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 25.4N  73.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 26.4N  72.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 27.8N  72.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 29.8N  71.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 33.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 37.5N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 44.0N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal is a sheared tropical cyclone with all of the associated\r\nconvection located over the southeastern portion of the\r\ncirculation. During the past few hours, deep convection has formed a\r\nlittle closer to the center and reconnaissance aircraft data\r\nindicate that Cristobal has strengthened a little.  The Air\r\nForce Reserve aircraft has measured peak 850 mb flight-level winds\r\nof 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45 kt.  Therefore, the\r\ninitial wind speed is set at 45 kt for this advisory.  The north\r\nto northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting the\r\ncyclone is forecast to decrease during the next day or so.  This\r\nshould allow a more favorable environment for strengthening.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast brings Cristobal to hurricane intensity in\r\na couple of days, which is close to the SHIPS guidance and model\r\nconsensus.  Late in the forecast period, Cristobal is expected to\r\nbecome an extratropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes between 0000 and 0600 UTC showed that the cyclone\r\nmeandered southeastward or a center reformation occurred. The last\r\nfew fixes indicate that Cristobal has resumed a slow northward\r\nmotion of about 3 kt.  The tropical storm is expected to begin\r\nmoving north-northeastward today ahead of a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough between Bermuda and the United States east coast.  By\r\nTuesday the trough is forecast to lift out and Cristobal should\r\nbegin moving faster north-northeastward around the western\r\nperiphery of a building ridge over the central Atlantic.  Later in\r\nthe period, the cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate\r\nwhen another trough approaches the coast of the northeastern United\r\nStates.  The track guidance has shifted eastward during the first\r\n48 hours, and the official forecast has been adjusted accordingly.\r\nAfter that time, the track is similar to, but faster than, the\r\nprevious advisory since the track guidance has once again trended\r\ntoward a faster northeastward motion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 24.5N  72.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 25.2N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 26.8N  71.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 29.3N  70.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 31.5N  70.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 35.2N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 40.5N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 48.5N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level\r\ncenter fully exposed on the north side of the deep convective cloud\r\nmass. Earlier reconnaissance data indicated maximum 850 mb\r\nflight-level winds of 61 kt in the southeast quadrant where SFMR\r\nwinds of near 50 kt were observed. Therefore, the initial intensity\r\nhas been increased to 50 kt. A NOAA aircraft reported a central\r\npressure of 996 mb, but the dropsonde also reported a 33-kt surface\r\nwind. As a result, the central pressure is estimated to be 993 mb.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is moving erratically\r\nnorth-northeastward or 015/02 kt. Strong northerly shear has been\r\nimpeding the forward motion of Cristobal for the past several hours\r\nby keeping the deep convection displaced to the south of the center,\r\nand this is expected to continue through today. On Tuesday, however,\r\na deep trough just of the U.S. east coast is forecast to capture\r\nCristobal and gradually lift out the cyclone to the northeast while\r\nthe Bermuda-Azores ridge builds westward to the south of the system.\r\nThe NHC model guidance is in very good agreement on this developing\r\nscenario with only minor differences in forward speed. The official\r\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies\r\nclose to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nThe GFS-based SHIPS model indicates northerly shear of 23 kt has\r\nbeen affecting Cristobal. The shear is forecast to gradually subside\r\nto around 10 kt during the next 12-24 hours, during which time some\r\nslight strengthening could occur. However, by 48-72 hours, the shear\r\nis forecast to decrease more significantly, allowing Cristobal to\r\nstrengthen further, becoming a hurricane as the cyclone passes to\r\nthe west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. On Days 4\r\nand 5, Cristobal will be passing over much cooler waters and\r\nencountering strong southwesterly wind shear as the cyclone becomes\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which will result in\r\nextratropical transition by 120 hours.\r\n\r\nOwing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible\r\nflooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the\r\nTurks and Caicos through Tuesday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 24.6N  72.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 26.0N  72.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 27.8N  71.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 30.0N  70.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 32.2N  69.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 36.5N  63.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 42.7N  50.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 49.5N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM cca\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nCorrected forecast motion through 72 hours\r\n\r\nCristobal remains in a moderate shear environment with the low-level\r\ncenter still fully exposed on the north side of the deep convection.\r\nA recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight indicated maximum\r\n850 mb flight-level winds of 65 kt in the southeast quadrant where\r\nSFMR winds of 51 kt were noted, and the central pressure has\r\nremained at 993 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity has\r\nbeen held at 50 kt.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes indicate that Cristobal is now moving at a more\r\nreliable north-northeastward motion of 020/04 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The\r\nlatest NHC model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement on\r\nthe subtropical ridge to the north of Cristobal slowly eroding\r\ndue to a strong mid/upper-level trough just off the U.S. southeast\r\ncoast continuing to dig southward as noted in water vapor imagery.\r\nThe combination of increasing southwesterly flow on the east side of\r\nthe trough and a building ridge to the south of the cyclone should\r\nact to lift Cristobal slowly northeastward over the next 72 hours.\r\nAfter that, Cristobal is forecast to become embedded in deep\r\nmid-latitude westerlies and accelerate off to the northeast and\r\neast-northeast, becoming a large and powerful extratropical cyclone\r\nover the far north Atlantic by 120 hours. The official forecast\r\ntrack is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track,\r\nand lies just to the right of the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nThe shear is forecast to ebb and flow over the next 48 hours or so,\r\nand the intensity forecast has followed this trend with\r\nstrengthening indicated during the periods when the vertical shear\r\nsubsides. Cristobal is still expected to become a hurricane when the\r\ncyclone passes to the west and north of Bermuda on Wednesday and\r\nThursday. On Days 4 and 5, Cristobal will be passing over much\r\ncooler waters and encountering strong southwesterly wind shear as\r\nthe cyclone becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, which\r\nwill result in extratropical transition by 120 hours. However, the\r\nsystem is likely to receive a boost from baroclinic effects,\r\nremaining as a strong extratropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nOwing to the slow motion of Cristobal, heavy rainfall and possible\r\nflooding will remain a threat for the southeastern Bahamas and the\r\nTurks and Caicos through Tuesday. Heavy rainfall is expected to\r\ncontinue across Bermuda through Wednesday ahead of Cristobal.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 25.3N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 26.6N  71.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 28.9N  71.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 31.2N  70.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 33.4N  68.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 38.1N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 44.3N  47.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 51.5N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nBased on a blend of SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind data\r\ncollected by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft a little earlier this\r\nevening, Cristobal was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.  Similar to\r\nHurricane Bertha earlier this year in roughly the same location,\r\nthis system's cloud pattern does not resemble that of a hurricane,\r\nwith little or no evidence of banding on satellite images.  Some\r\nadditional strengthening is expected, however, since the SHIPS\r\nguidance shows a decrease in vertical shear during the next few\r\ndays, and an increase in upper-level divergence is indicated by the\r\nglobal models.  The official intensity forecast is a little higher\r\nthan the previous one, and is close to the latest LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe center fixes by the NOAA aircraft indicated an eastward wobble\r\nseveral hours ago, but recent satellite imagery hints that a slow\r\nnorth-northeastward motion has resumed.  The initial motion estimate\r\nis a rather uncertain 030/2 kt.  In spite of the erratic motion and\r\neastward shift of the center, the track model guidance remains in\r\ngood agreement that Cristobal will move along a track similar to the\r\nprevious NHC forecast.  Over the next couple of days, the hurricane\r\nis expected to move through a weakness between two mid-level high\r\npressure areas.  Thereafter, as Cristobal begins to enter the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies and a shortwave trough moves off the\r\nnortheast United States coastline,  the tropical cyclone should\r\naccelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic. The current\r\nofficial forecast is not much different from the previous one, and\r\nclose to the GFS ensemble mean solution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 25.1N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 26.9N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 29.3N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 31.8N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 34.0N  68.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 39.0N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 45.0N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/0000Z 51.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nAs indicated by my predecessor, Cristobal's cloud pattern is not\r\ntypical of a hurricane on IR images. The convection is quite\r\nlinear and the system appears to be embedded within the tail of a\r\nfrontal zone. However, an reconnaissance planes recently measured\r\nwinds of 73 kt at flight level and a minimum central pressure of 987\r\nmb. This supports an initial intensity of 65 knots. Most of the\r\nglobal models intensify the cyclone, and given that the\r\nshear is gradually decreasing, the NHC forecast calls for some\r\nstrengthening at a rate very close to the latest intensity consensus\r\nmodel ICON. By day 4, Cristobal is expected to be over cooler waters\r\nlosing tropical characteristics.\r\n\r\nCristobal has been meandering during the past 12 hours or\r\nmore, but recently, it has begun to move toward the north at about\r\n10 knots. The cyclone is located at the base of a narrow\r\nmid-latitude trough, and squeezed between the Atlantic subtropical\r\nridge and a high pressure over the United States. Most of the global\r\nmodels show that the flow around the western side of the Atlantic\r\nridge will steer the cyclone northward for the next 36 hours or\r\nso. Cristobal will then encounter the mid-latitude westerlies and\r\nturn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The\r\nguidance in general shifted slightly to the west in the latest run\r\ndue to a small expansion of the Atlantic ridge. The NHC track\r\nforecast was also adjusted slightly westward during the\r\nnext 24 to 36 hours, following the multi-model consensus, and\r\nplaced very close to the consensus between the EMCWF and the GFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 26.0N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 28.1N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 30.6N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 32.6N  70.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 35.0N  68.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 41.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 48.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/0600Z 57.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nThe center of Cristobal is partially exposed to the northwest of the\r\ndeep convection. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model show\r\nabout 20 kt of west-northwesterly shear over Cristobal and dry air\r\nhas wrapped into the southwestern quadrant of the circulation as the\r\ncyclone interacts with a mid/upper-level trough to its west. The\r\ninitial intensity remains 65 kt based on data from the last NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft mission. Model guidance indicates that the\r\nupper-level winds will become less hostile during the next day or so\r\nas Cristobal moves underneath and then north of the aforementioned\r\ntrough, which should allow for some intensification. The NHC\r\nforecast shows Cristobal peaking in 36-48 hours in agreement with\r\nthe latest IVCN intensity consensus. After that time, Cristobal\r\nwill be moving over cooler waters and into a higher shear\r\nenvironment, which should result in the system losing tropical\r\ncharacteristics in about 3 days. However, as this occurs the global\r\nmodels show Cristobal moving in a favorable position for baroclinic\r\nintensification ahead of a mid-latitude trough. This should result\r\nin Cristobal transitioning to a powerful extratropical cyclone over\r\nthe north Atlantic late in the period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 010/10, as Cristobal is currently\r\nbeing pulled slowly northward by the mid/upper-level trough situated\r\neast of Florida. During the next day or so Cristobal will begin\r\nmoving north-northeastward around the western side of the Atlantic\r\nsubtropical ridge. Then the cyclone should accelerate into the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies during the remainder of the forecast period.\r\nOverall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement on this\r\nscenario. The new NHC track has been shifted a little to the west,\r\nor left, of the previous one through 48 hours and lies along the\r\neastern edge of the guidance envelope. After that time, the NHC\r\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 27.2N  71.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 29.4N  71.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 31.9N  70.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 33.9N  69.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 36.4N  65.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 43.0N  51.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 50.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/1200Z 58.0N  26.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nAs Cristobal has moved northward around the eastern side of the\r\nupper trough it is currently interacting with, the shear has\r\ndecreased over the cyclone and deep convection has redeveloped near\r\nthe center. The latest NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that\r\nthe pressure had fallen to 984 mb and reported a partial eyewall.\r\nThe initial intensity of 65 kt is based on a peak 8,000-ft\r\nflight-level wind of 75 kt and SFMR winds around 60 kt. Aircraft\r\ndata and a partial ASCAT pass show that the wind field of Cristobal\r\nhas expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle, and the\r\ninitial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted outward.\r\n\r\nConditions should be favorable for some strengthening as a tropical\r\ncyclone during the next couple of days before the cyclone moves over\r\ncooler waters and into a higher shear environment. After that time,\r\nthe GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all show an impressive extratropical\r\ntransition of Cristobal, as it interacts synergistically with a\r\npowerful mid-latitude trough in about 3 days. This should result in\r\nCristobal maintaining hurricane-force winds for a time as an\r\nextratropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 010/12. Cristobal jogged north-\r\nnortheastward earlier today, but is now moving a bit more to the\r\nleft. The dynamical model guidance shows a bit of a northward jog\r\ntonight as the cyclone moves east of the upper-trough. After that\r\ntime an acceleration toward the northeast is expected as the\r\nsubtropical ridge to the southeast propels Cristobal into the mid\r\nlatitudes by 48 hours. A quick northeastward motion is expected to\r\ncontinue through 4 days with a bend back toward the north-northeast\r\nshown at day 5. The track model guidance has shifted a bit to the\r\nwest this cycle in the short range, and the NHC forecast has been\r\nnudged in that direction for the first 36 hours, but lies on the\r\neast side of the guidance envelope. At 48 hours and beyond the NHC\r\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one and is close to a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 28.8N  71.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 30.7N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 32.9N  70.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 35.2N  67.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 38.0N  62.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 45.5N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 52.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  31/1800Z 60.0N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Cristobal earlier\r\nthis evening, and found that the hurricane had strengthened a bit.\r\nBased on SFMR-observed surface winds and dropsonde data from the\r\naircraft, the intensity was increased to 70 kt.  Since the time of\r\nthe aircraft mission, the convective cloud tops have warmed\r\nsomewhat -- but this is likely a diurnal fluctuation.  The\r\ndynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Cristobal\r\nwill remain modest through about 36 hours, but increase\r\nsubstantially thereafter.  Therefore the hurricane has a window of\r\nopportunity for strengthening that should last through tomorrow\r\nnight.  The official wind speed forecast is close to the latest\r\nintensity model consensus.  Later in the forecast period, as\r\nCristobal nears and undergoes extratropical transition, strong\r\nbaroclinic forcing should result in a powerful post-tropical storm\r\nwith hurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes indicate a northward motion of about 360/13 kt.  The\r\ntrack forecast philosophy is essentially unchanged from the\r\nprevious advisory package.  Over the next day or two, Cristobal\r\nshould move through a weakness between 2 subtropical anticyclones.\r\nThereafter, the cyclone should turn northeastward ahead of a\r\nmid-tropospheric shortwave trough moving off of the northeastern\r\nUnited States, and accelerate in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\r\nlatest track model guidance has shifted a bit to the left, and the\r\nofficial forecast remains near the right side of the guidance suite.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 30.4N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 32.0N  71.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 34.3N  69.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 36.6N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 39.5N  60.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 47.5N  45.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 54.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/0000Z 62.0N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has changed from 12 hours ago when there was deep\r\nand symmetric convection near the center. Currently, the satellite\r\npresentation resembles a subtropical cyclone with weak convection\r\nwhich is not concentrated near the center. However, an Air Force\r\nplane recently penetrated Cristobal and found a minimum pressure of\r\n983 mb and a partial eyewall. The strong winds of 75 to 80 kt\r\nmeasured by the plane at flight level were not observed at the\r\nsurface during this time. Given such uncertainty, the initial\r\nintensity has been kept at 70 kt at this time. The hurricane has a\r\nsmall window of opportunity for strengthening before it moves to\r\nhigher latitudes and over cooler waters in a couple of days. The NHC\r\nwind speed forecast is close to the latest intensity model\r\nconsensus and similar to the previous official one. After that time,\r\nCristobal is forecast to become a strong post-tropical storm with\r\nhurricane-force winds over the north Atlantic later this week.\r\n\r\nAircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Cristobal slowed down\r\nearlier this morning, but as anticipated, it has resumed a northward\r\nmotion or 010 degrees at 10 knots. The steering pattern has not\r\nchanged and Cristobal should begin to move toward the northeast in\r\nabout 24 hours with an increase in forward speed as it becomes\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is very\r\nclose to the multi-model consensus and similar to the GFS ensemble\r\nmean AEMI, which has been performing quite well with this storm so\r\nfar. The forecast beyond 72 hours follows the input from the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 30.9N  71.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 32.4N  71.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 34.7N  69.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 37.5N  63.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 40.5N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 48.0N  43.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 53.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nSome deep convection has redeveloped near the center of Cristobal\r\nduring the past few hours, mainly in the western semicircle.\r\nSatellite imagery shows dry air wrapping south and east of the\r\ncenter interspersed with a couple of convective bands. The initial\r\nintensity remains 70 kt, and another aircraft will be investigating\r\nthe cyclone this afternoon. There is still some potential for\r\nCristobal to strengthen as a tropical cyclone during the next day or\r\nso before it begins extratropical transition, which should be\r\ncomplete shortly after 48 hours. Cristobal is expected to be a\r\npowerful extratropical cyclone by Friday night or Saturday, and then\r\nslowly weaken before being absorbed by another cyclone at the end of\r\nthe period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\none and close to the IVCN intensity consensus while Cristobal\r\nremains a tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nCristobal has wobbled a little to the left this morning, with an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 355/10. All of the guidance is unanimous\r\nin turning Cristobal north-northeastward and then northeastward\r\nduring the next 24 hours and accelerating the cyclone into the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies. A continued northeasterly motion is\r\nexpected through the remainder of the cyclone's life cycle. The\r\ntrack model guidance is tightly clustered, but the NHC forecast has\r\nshifted to the left of the previous one by about a half a degree due\r\nto the initial position and motion being to the left of the previous\r\ntrack. The new NHC track is close to a consensus of the GFS and\r\nECMWF models through 72 hours, and a little south of that consensus\r\nat 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with\r\nthe Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 31.8N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 34.0N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 39.6N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 43.5N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 50.0N  40.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 56.0N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to be confined mostly near and to the west\r\nof the center of Cristobal, with dry air persisting in the eastern\r\nsemicircle. After rising a bit earlier this afternoon, the central\r\npressure has fallen back down to 984 mb. The initial intensity of 65\r\nkt is based on several 60-65 kt SFMR winds from the hurricane hunter\r\naircraft. The intensity forecast shows gradual intensification to 75\r\nkt in 36 to 48 hours, as Cristobal will have the opportunity to\r\nintensify as a tropical cyclone and then via baroclinic processes\r\nduring extratropical transition. Global model fields show Cristobal\r\ndeepening during transition and acquiring a warm seclusion structure\r\nin 48 to 72 hours. Slow decay is expected after 72 hours before the\r\ncyclone is absorbed at high latitudes.\r\n\r\nCristobal has begun moving north-northeastward, with an initial\r\nmotion estimate of 030/13. The cyclone should continue to accelerate\r\naround the subtropical ridge into the mid-latitude westerlies\r\ntonight and remain on a general northeastward heading through 72\r\nhours before bending northward. The track model guidance remains in\r\ngood agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track is close to the\r\nprevious forecast and the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe extratropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with\r\nthe Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 32.7N  71.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 34.4N  69.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 37.3N  63.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 41.0N  55.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 45.3N  47.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 53.5N  34.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 60.0N  27.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  01/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal has a fairly circular area of deep convection over the\r\nestimated low-level center, with cloud tops occasionally to -70 deg\r\nC.  The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt, in agreement with a\r\nDvorak estimate from TAFB.  The symmetric appearance of the cloud\r\npattern suggests that vertical shear has not yet become very\r\nstrong, but the latest SHIPS guidance indicates a significant\r\nincrease in shear in 18-24 hours.  The hurricane could strengthen\r\nsome over the next day or two as a tropical cyclone, or due to\r\nbaroclinic processes.  The official intensity forecast is close to\r\nthe intensity model consensus through 36 hours, and a little above\r\nit thereafter. Extratropical transition is likely to have occurred\r\nby 48 hours since the global models depict the system as fully\r\nembedded within a frontal zone by that time. Post-tropical Cristobal\r\nis likely to be an intense extratropical cyclone with winds to\r\nhurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is beginning to accelerate northeastward, and the\r\nmotion estimate is 050/17.  The track forecast is unchanged from\r\nthe previous advisory.  Cristobal is currently rounding the\r\nnorthwestern periphery of a subtropical anticyclone over the\r\nwest-central Atlantic.  A mid-latitude shortwave trough to the\r\nnorthwest of the hurricane should cause the hurricane, or its\r\npost-tropical counterpart, to accelerate further and move into the\r\nhigher-latitude westerlies.  The official forecast track is in good\r\nagreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity and wind structure forecasts have been\r\ncoordinated with the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 34.1N  69.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 36.1N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 39.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 43.4N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 47.5N  44.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 56.0N  32.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 62.5N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal's satellite presentation is more typical of a tropical\r\ncyclone tonight than yesterday at this time. There is a symmetric\r\narea of very deep convection concentrated near the center, and\r\nDvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of\r\n65 kt. There is a small opportunity for intensification as\r\nindicated by some models, but it is becoming more likely that it\r\nwill be enhanced by baroclinic processes as the cyclone interacts\r\nwith a frontal zone.  Cristobal will move over 17-degree Celsius\r\nwaters and lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours. It\r\nshould then become an intense extratropical cyclone with winds of\r\nhurricane force over the north Atlantic in a couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is already embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies\r\nand is moving toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 25 knots and\r\naccelerating. There is no reason to change the track forecast from\r\nthe previous one, and the official forecast track continues to be in\r\ngood agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCA and the GFS\r\nensemble mean.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity and wind radii forecasts have been coordinated\r\nwith the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 35.6N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 37.8N  63.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 41.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 46.0N  47.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 50.0N  40.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 59.5N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 63.0N  21.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Cristobal has become much more\r\nsymmetric than at any earlier time during its life. The center is\r\nembedded within an area of deep convection and a warm spot has\r\nbecome evident in recent visible satellite images. T-numbers from\r\nboth SAB and TAFB are 4.0 on the Dvorak Scale and the initial\r\nintensity is set at 65 kt. Some strengthening is expected\r\ntoday while the hurricane remains over warm water.  The cyclone will\r\nbegin to interact with a frontal zone tonight and should complete\r\nextratropical transition on Friday.  The global models indicate that\r\nthe extratropical low will remain a powerful cyclone over the north\r\nAtlantic during the next few days.  The low is forecast to merge\r\nwith another large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic in\r\n3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nCristobal is moving northeastward at about 23 kt.  The cyclone\r\nshould continue to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies during the next day or so.  The updated NHC track is\r\nclose to the previous advisory and near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  The track, intensity and wind radii forecasts of the\r\nextratropical low have been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 36.9N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 39.7N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 43.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 48.0N  43.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 51.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 61.1N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Cristobal looked its best in visible\r\nimagery shortly after the release of the previous advisory, when the\r\neye became more apparent.  Since that time, the eye has become a\r\nlittle more ragged, but a blend of the latest subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak intensity estimates yields an initial wind speed\r\nof 70 kt.  Although the official forecast does not explicitly show\r\nany additional intensification, there is a small window of\r\nopportunity this evening for the hurricane to get a little\r\nstronger.  After that time, Cristobal will be moving across the\r\nnorth wall of the Gulf Stream -- and over much colder waters.  An\r\nupper-level trough and cold front approaching the cyclone from the\r\nnorthwest should cause Cristobal to transform into an extratropical\r\ncyclone on Friday.  The extratropical cyclone is expected to\r\ncontinue to produce hurricane-force winds during the next couple of\r\ndays before it merges with another large extratropical cyclone over\r\nthe north Atlantic in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving\r\neast-northeastward at 31 kt.  The cyclone should continue to\r\naccelerate tonight and remain on an east-northeastward to\r\nnortheastward heading during the next 2 to 3 days.  The updated NHC\r\ntrack is in good agreement with the tightly clustered guidance,\r\nbut the forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right due to a\r\nmore eastward 1800 UTC initial position.  The track, intensity and\r\nwind radii forecasts of the extratropical low have been coordinated\r\nwith the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 38.5N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 41.0N  54.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 45.2N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 49.3N  38.4W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 54.0N  31.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 62.0N  23.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  01/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nRemarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on\r\nsatellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding\r\nfeatures.  The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in\r\nagreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The\r\nhurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause\r\nsignificant weakening as a tropical cyclone.  However, it is\r\nexpected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of\r\nits strength due to baroclinic forcing.  Post-tropical Cristobal\r\nwill likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over\r\nthe north Atlantic through Saturday.  Beyond that time, the system\r\nis forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and\r\nlose its identity.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now\r\nnear 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies.  Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward\r\nthe northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts\r\nwith the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and\r\nECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT\r\noverpass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 40.2N  56.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 43.1N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 47.5N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 51.5N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 56.5N  27.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal has begun extratropical transition.  The cloud pattern has\r\nbecome much less symmetric and central convection has decreased,\r\nalong with dry air eroding the southern flank of the cyclone. Dvorak\r\nclassifications are a little lower and support an intensity of about\r\n70 kt for this advisory.  The hurricane has now moved across the\r\nnorth wall of the Gulf Stream over much colder waters.  This\r\nchange in environment usually causes a significant weakening of\r\na tropical cyclone, but in this case strong baroclinic forcing\r\nshould delay the cyclone's demise.  Post-tropical Cristobal will\r\nlikely remain a powerful extratropical cyclone over the north\r\nAtlantic through early Sunday. Beyond that time, the system is\r\nforecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland\r\nand lose its identity.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to accelerate, and the motion is now\r\n055/43 kt with Cristobal moving rapidly within the mid-latitude\r\nflow.  Dynamical track guidance indicates that this general motion\r\nwill continue during the next couple of days with a decrease\r\nin forward speed and a small leftward turn due to Cristobal\r\ninteracting with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or\r\ntwo.  The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model\r\nconsensus and the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 42.1N  51.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 45.4N  45.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 49.3N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 52.9N  32.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 59.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  01/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Cristobal","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042014\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014\r\n\r\nCristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical\r\ncyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and\r\nnorthwest of the exposed center.  A frontal boundary has also\r\nwrapped around the southern portion of the circulation.  A recent\r\nASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast\r\nof the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at\r\n65 kt.  Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next\r\nday or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful\r\ncyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large\r\nlow near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the\r\npast 6 to 12 hours.  However, the low is expected to slow down some\r\nwhile it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer\r\nsouthwesterly flow during the next day or so.  The official track\r\nforecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been\r\ncoordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nThis is the last NHC advisory on this system.  Additional\r\ninformation on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts\r\nissued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header\r\nNFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 45.5N  47.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 48.2N  41.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 51.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 55.0N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n400 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the\r\nlow pressure area over the southwest Gulf of Mexico found a\r\nwell-defined center of circulation.  The system has a curved band of\r\ndeep convection that wraps around the southern and eastern portions\r\nof the circulation.  Thus the system is being designated as a\r\ntropical depression at this time.  The maximum winds reported by the\r\naircraft so far support an intensity of 25 kt.  Although the\r\ncyclone is situated over very warm waters of near 30 deg C, the\r\natmospheric environment is not ideal for strengthening.  Dynamical\r\nmodels indicate that significant northerly to northwesterly\r\nvertical shear should affect the tropical cyclone for the next 36\r\nhours and this is likely to limit intensification up to landfall.\r\nAfter landfall, dissipation should be quick due to the mountainous\r\nterrain of Mexico.  The official wind speed forecast is a little\r\nabove the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward or around 295/11.  The\r\nsteering scenario appears to be fairly straightforward.  The flow\r\nto the south of a mid-level ridge along the northern Gulf of Mexico\r\ncoast should maintain a west-northwestward track for the next 36\r\nhours, i.e. through the expected time of landfall.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is very close to the latest dynamical model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 20.1N  93.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 21.1N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 21.9N  96.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 22.4N  97.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n1000 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014\r\n\r\nThe depression appears to be gradually organizing this evening as\r\ndeep convection has developed over the eastern portion of the large\r\ncirculation.  Last-light visible satellite pictures suggested that\r\nthe center of the depression has likely reformed farther north,\r\nwhich is not surprising given that the depression is still in its\r\nformative stage.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is\r\nscheduled to investigate the depression in a few hours, and this\r\nshould assist in determining the center position overnight.  Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB still support an initial wind speed of\r\n25 kt.\r\n\r\nAlthough the depression is forecast to strengthen some on Tuesday,\r\nmoderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air are likely to\r\ninhibit significant intensification before landfall.  None of the\r\nreliable intensity models show much strengthening and the NHC\r\nforecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe somewhat uncertain initial motion is 310/9 kt.  The dynamical\r\nmodel guidance indicate that the depression will turn west-\r\nnorthwestward on Tuesday to the south of a mid-level ridge along the\r\nnorthern Gulf of Mexico coast.  The guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario and the NHC track is close to the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope.  The updated NHC forecast track is slightly north\r\nof the previous advisory due to the more northward initial position.\r\nOnce inland, the cyclone is forecast to quickly dissipate over the\r\nmountains of eastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall, which is likely to cause flash-flooding and mud slides\r\nover portions of eastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 21.0N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 21.7N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 22.3N  96.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 22.7N  98.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n400 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the\r\ncyclone early this morning found 925 mb flight-level winds of 50-53\r\nkt in the northeast quadrant and adjusted SFMR winds of at least 40\r\nkt.  In addition, two ASCAT overpasses at 0313 UTC and 0406 UTC\r\nindicated surface winds of 40-41 kt in the eastern quadrant. Based\r\non these wind data, the intensity has been increased to 40 kt,\r\nmaking the cyclone the fourth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic\r\nhurricane season. These wind data also required the initial\r\nposition to be relocated about 60 nmi north of the previous track.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is northwestward or 305/12 kt, which is\r\nbased on a blend of passive microwave, scatterometer, and\r\nconventional satellite fix data. Other than the northward relocation\r\nof the center position, the forecast track reasoning remains\r\nunchanged from the previous advisories. The tropical storm is\r\nexpected to gradually turn more toward the west-northwest as Dolly\r\nskirts along the southern periphery of a strong mid-level ridge that\r\nis located across most of the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern\r\nUnited States. Landfall along the northeastern coast of Mexico is\r\nexpected in about 24 hours, followed by dissipation in 48 hours\r\nover the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental mountains. The\r\nNHC forecast track is similar to the consensus model TVCA, and lies\r\nroughly in the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nAbout 20 kt of north-northwesterly vertical shear is affecting\r\nDolly, which has resulted in most of the convection being displaced\r\nwell to the south and east of the exposed low-level circulation.\r\nHowever, new convection has recently developed near and just to the\r\nsoutheast of the center, and with the shear forecast to decrease to\r\nabout 15 kt during the next 12 hours, some additional slight\r\nstrengthening is possible before Dolly makes landfall.\r\n\r\nThe surface wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft and the\r\ntwo scatterometer passes indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind\r\nfield has expanded significantly in the eastern semicircle. Since\r\nthe pressure gradient between Dolly and the large high over the\r\nGulf of Mexico is expected to remain quite strong for the next 36\r\nhours or so, the Government of Mexico has extended the tropical\r\nstorm warning area northward to Barra El Mezquital. However, no\r\nadditional northward extension of the warning area appears likely\r\nat this time.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall, which is likely to cause flash flooding and mud slides\r\nover portions of eastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 22.6N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 23.1N  95.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 23.7N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 24.1N  98.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014\r\n\r\nNorth-northwesterly vertical shear continues to affect the tropical\r\nstorm, and the low-level center is located near the northwestern\r\nedge of a large mass of deep convection.  Arc clouds are also noted\r\nto be propagating northward from the system which is indicative of\r\nthe presence of some dry air at mid levels.  Based on observations\r\nfrom the aircraft mission from earlier this morning, the current\r\nintensity is held at 45 kt, which is a little above the latest\r\nDvorak estimates.  Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into\r\nDolly is scheduled in a few hours to check the intensity.  Since the\r\nsystem has been able to intensify overnight in spite of the shear,\r\nsome additional strengthening is certainly possible before\r\nlandfall. Weakening after the center moves inland could be more\r\nrapid than indicated here, due to the mountainous terrain of\r\nnortheastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe motion has been somewhat faster than earlier estimates and is\r\nnow near 300/14 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of Dolly should\r\ncause a continued west-northwestward motion for the next 24 hours\r\nor so and, based on the faster initial motion, the center is likely\r\nto cross the coast somewhat earlier than indicated in previous\r\nadvisories.  The current official track forecast is a little ahead\r\nof the model guidance but still shows a decrease in forward speed\r\nthrough 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with\r\nprecipitation totals possibly approaching 10 inches in a few\r\nlocations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and\r\nmud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will\r\ncontinue even after the center moves inland.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 23.4N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 24.0N  97.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 24.5N  99.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 24.8N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n400 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014\r\n\r\nTracking the center of Dolly this afternoon has been, to say the\r\nleast, challenging.  Aircraft and scatterometer wind data show that\r\nthe center of the storm reformed to the south of the previous track\r\nand nearer to the middle of the deep convection.  Flight-level and\r\nSFMR observations support an initial intensity of about 40 kt.\r\nSince the center is expected to move inland in less than 12 hours,\r\nno significant change in strength is likely before landfall.  Once\r\ninland, Dolly should weaken fairly rapidly over the mountains of\r\nnortheastern Mexico and the system could dissipate even sooner than\r\nindicated by the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nWith the center relocation, it is extremely difficult to estimate\r\nthe initial motion, but my best guess is 270/10 kt.  Despite the\r\ncomplex small-scale motions, the large-scale steering pattern\r\nremains roughly the same.  A mid-tropospheric ridge near the\r\nnorthwestern Gulf of Mexico coast should drive Dolly in a generally\r\nwestward direction over the next day or two.  The official track\r\nforecast has been shifted southward due to the center reformation.\r\nThis lies about in the middle of the track guidance model suite.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with\r\nprecipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few\r\nlocations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and\r\nmud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will\r\ncontinue even after the center moves inland.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 22.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 22.0N  98.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 22.0N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014\r\n\r\nRadar and surface data from Mexico show that the center of Dolly is\r\nmoving ashore just south of Tampico.  The initial intensity remains\r\n40 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier aircraft observations.\r\nThe minimum pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb based on dropsonde\r\ndata from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and\r\nthe NASA Global Hawk.  Dolly should begin to weaken overnight while\r\nthe circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to\r\ndissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico within\r\na day or so.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt.  Dolly is forecast to\r\ncontinue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge\r\nuntil dissipation occurs.  The new NHC track is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory and is close to the GFS model.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with\r\nprecipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few\r\nlocations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and\r\nmud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will\r\ncontinue during the next day or so.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 21.9N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 22.0N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolly","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican\r\nradar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between\r\nTampico and Cabo Rojo.  The initial intensity is decreased to a\r\nsomewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in\r\nconvective bands over water to the northeast of the center.  Dolly\r\nshould continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system\r\nis expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of\r\ncentral Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 265/7.  Dolly is forecast to continue moving\r\ngenerally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it\r\ndissipates.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with\r\nprecipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few\r\nlocations.  These rains will likely cause flash flooding and\r\nmud slides in regions of mountainous terrain.  This threat will\r\ncontinue during the next day or so.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 21.8N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 21.8N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Dolly","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052014\r\n1000 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough there is still some disorganized deep convection,\r\nprimarily near the coast of northeastern Mexico, surface data and\r\nhigh-resolution visible satellite imagery indicate that there is no\r\nwell-defined center of circulation.  Therefore Dolly is declared\r\ndissipated and this is the last advisory.\r\n\r\nAlthough Dolly has dissipated as a tropical cyclone, its remnants\r\nshould continue to produce heavy rains, with the threat of\r\nflooding and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico through\r\ntomorrow.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 21.7N  99.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the\r\nlow pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined\r\ncirculation and organized convective banding near the center.  Thus,\r\nadvisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six.  The\r\ninitial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data\r\nand the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 310/12.  A low-/mid-level ridge north of the\r\ncyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward for the next 3-4 days.  After that, the track\r\nguidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between\r\nthe ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda.  There\r\nis a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should\r\noccur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near\r\n45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W.  The official forecast\r\nlies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly\r\nmotion between 51W-53W.  The forecast track keeps the cyclone well\r\naway from land for the next 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe depression is currently in an environment of light vertical\r\nwind shear.  The large-scale models forecast some increase\r\nin southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the\r\nend of the forecast period.  Despite the shear, the intensity\r\nguidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening.  The official\r\nforecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and\r\nthe intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 16.2N  37.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 17.1N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 18.2N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 19.3N  42.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 20.5N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 23.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 26.5N  51.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 29.0N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Six is slowly becoming better organized, with\r\nincreasing convective banding in the northwestern semicircle.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 30 kt\r\nrespectively, and a recent CIRA AMSU estimate was 32 kt.  The\r\ninitial intensity remains 30 kt.  The cirrus outflow is good in the\r\nnorthern semicircle and poor elsewhere.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 310/13.  A low-/mid-level ridge north of the\r\ncyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward for the next 3-4 days.  After that, the track\r\nguidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between\r\nthe ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda.  the\r\nguidance has come into somewhat better agreement that the northward\r\nturn should occur between 49W-55W, as the Canadian model has\r\nshifted westward since its previous run.  The official forecast is\r\nan update of the previous package, and it lies near the center of\r\nthe guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe depression remains in an environment of light vertical wind\r\nshear.  The large-scale models continue to forecast some increase in\r\nsoutherly shear after 24 hours, although less shear is forecast than\r\nseen for the previous advisory.  The intensity guidance responds to\r\nthis, and to increasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast\r\ntrack, by showing more intensification than previously, especially\r\nafter 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward from\r\n72-120 hours in best agreement with the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 17.0N  38.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 17.9N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 19.0N  42.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 20.1N  44.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 21.6N  46.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 24.5N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 27.5N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 30.5N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm\r\nEdouard, the fifth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane\r\nseason. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on satellite\r\nestimates of T2.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB, SAB and UW CIMSS.\r\nThe cloud pattern is now more symmetric with the low-level center\r\nembedded within the deep convection. The upper-level outflow is good\r\nin the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.\r\n\r\nAlthough the atmospheric environment--including increasing wind\r\nshear--is not ideal for strengthening, Edouard will be moving over a\r\npool of anomalous warm waters in the north central Atlantic during\r\nthe next few days. This will likely aid the intensification process,\r\nand the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time.\r\nThe NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nEdouard is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11\r\nknots. The subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone\r\non that general track is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a\r\nlarge mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. This new pattern\r\nshould force Edouard to turn northward by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, and eventually to recurve over the open Atlantic. There is\r\nconfidence in the northward turn since that is the solution of most\r\nof the track guidance. The NHC forecast follows very close the\r\nmulti-model consensus TVCA and an average of the GFS and the\r\nECMWF models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 17.3N  39.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 18.1N  41.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 19.0N  43.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 20.3N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 21.5N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 24.0N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 27.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 30.0N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard is feeling the effects of moderate vertical wind shear as\r\nthe center is on the southwest edge of the deep convection.  The\r\ncurrent intensity values from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the\r\ncyclone remains a low-end tropical storm and its intensity is kept\r\nat 35 kt.  While Edouard will be traversing progressively warmer\r\nwaters during the next three to four days, it may only gradually\r\nintensify due to the inhibiting effects of about 15 kt of deep layer\r\nshear and dry lower-tropospheric air. Indeed, dropsondes launched by\r\nthe unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft this evening showed very dry\r\nconditions just to the southwest of Edouard.  The official intensity\r\nforecast, based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical\r\nmodels and the HWRF dynamical model, is just slightly below the\r\nprediction from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nMicrowave passes by the TRMM and SSMI low-earth orbiting satellites\r\nassisted substantially in determining the initial position and\r\ncurrent motion, indicating that Edouard was a bit farther west than\r\nestimated earlier.  The tropical storm is moving west-northwestward\r\nat a faster rate of about 13 kt. Edouard should gradually turn\r\ntoward to the north by the end of the forecast period, as it moves\r\naround the periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north and through\r\na weakness in the ridge.  The official track forecast is based upon\r\nthe tightly clustered TVCA multi-model consensus and is slightly\r\nwest of the previous track prediction because of the more westerly\r\ninitial position.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 17.6N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 18.6N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 19.7N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 20.7N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 22.0N  49.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 24.8N  53.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 27.5N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 31.0N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is a little more organized, and microwave data\r\nsuggest that the center is more embedded within the deep convection.\r\nBased on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB,TAFB and objective\r\nnumbers from CIMSS the winds are increased to 40 kt. This intensity\r\nis confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has a large low-level circulation and the upper-level\r\noutflow has improved.  Most of the global models as well as SHIPS\r\nsuggest a decrease in the wind shear during the next few days.\r\nIn addition, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously\r\nwarm water. This should result in gradual strengthening as indicated\r\nin the NHC forecast, which in fact is very close to the intensity\r\nconsensus model ICON.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 knots steered\r\nby the flow around the periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.\r\nA gradual turn to the northwest and north is forecast in about 3 to\r\n4 days when the ridge weakens. The NHC forecast is basically on top\r\nof the multi-model consensus, which has remained in place from 06\r\nto 12 UTC. The guidance in general is tighly clustered, increasing\r\nthe confidence in the track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft is dropping numerous sondes\r\nnear and around Edouard and these data are being ingested by\r\nglobal models to help with the initialization.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 18.5N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 19.2N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 20.5N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 21.8N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 23.0N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 26.0N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 28.5N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 32.0N  55.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft dropped a sonde and measured\r\na minimum pressure of 999 mb with 23 kt near the center of Edouard.\r\nThis leads to a minimum central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Another\r\nsonde measured surface winds of 40 kt confirming earlier ASCAT data,\r\nand this value will be used as the initial intensity. After some\r\ndisruption of the cloud pattern a couple of hours ago, satellite\r\nimages indicate that there is some reorganization going on at this\r\ntime. It appears that the shear has begun to weaken and the outflow\r\nis expanding. Most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual\r\nstrengthening, and this is consistent with the decrease in shear,\r\nand the fact that Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously\r\nwarm water during the next few days. The NHC forecast is similar to\r\nthe intensity consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nEdouard has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11\r\nkt during the past few hours. Global models show an expansion of\r\nthe subtropical ridge to the north, and this pattern should force\r\nthe cyclone to move on a general west-northwest to northwest track\r\nduring the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the ridge is forecast\r\nto weaken, and a gradual turn to the north is anticipated.  There\r\nis high confidence on the northward turn over open Atlantic since\r\nthe dynamical guidance is tightly packed. The NHC forecast follows\r\nclosely the multi-model consensus TVCA and the average of the ECMWF\r\nand the GFS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 19.5N  44.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 20.5N  45.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 21.8N  47.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 23.2N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 24.5N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 27.5N  56.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 31.5N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 37.0N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since\r\nthe last advisory.  Moderately strong south-southwesterly shear is\r\nstill affecting the cyclone, as evidenced by the center location\r\nnear the southern edge of the main convective mass in microwave\r\nimagery.  However, convective cloud top temperatures have cooled\r\nsome, and the upper-level outflow has expanded to the north and\r\nwest. Dvorak intensity estimates range from T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and\r\nSAB, while an earlier AMSU estimate suggested an intensity of around\r\n45 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe center of Edouard was relocated a bit to the south and west\r\nbased on a 2113 UTC Windsat overpass.  That pass, in combination\r\nwith previous fixes, suggests an initial motion estimate of 295/11.\r\nEdouard should move generally west-northwestward for the next few\r\ndays under the influence of a mid-level ridge over the central\r\nAtlantic. In about 3 days, the cyclone should reach a significant\r\nbreak in the the same ridge and gradually turn northward between\r\n55-58w with some decrease in forward speed.  The cyclone should\r\naccelerate northeastward once it becomes embedded in deep-layer\r\nwesterly flow over the north Atlantic toward the end of the forecast\r\nperiod. The NHC track forecast is shifted to the left of the\r\nprevious one through 72 hours due to the the center relocation and a\r\nwestward trend in the track guidance this cycle.  The track forecast\r\nlies on the right side of the guidance envelope through 3 days and\r\nis near the center of it after that, close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nEdouard has been moving through a sheared environment over the\r\ntropical Atlantic, characterized by strong low- to mid-level\r\neasterly trades and southerly flow aloft. Global models generally\r\nforecast a reduction of this shear after another day or so, when\r\nupper-level anticyclonic flow develops over the storm.  In a couple\r\nof days, upper-level troughs to the east and west of Edouard could\r\nallow the formation of dual outflow channels while the cyclone is\r\nover sea surface temperatures around 30 deg C.  This should allow\r\nintensification to hurricane strength.  After recurvature, the storm\r\nmotion and shear vectors are likely to align which should allow\r\nEdouard to maintain its intensity until it encounters increasing\r\nshear and cooler waters by day 5. The NHC wind speed forecast is\r\nnearly unchanged relative to the previous, except to show a slightly\r\nhigher peak intensity in agreement with the latest guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 19.5N  45.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 20.4N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 21.8N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 23.1N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 24.6N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 27.9N  56.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 32.2N  56.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 37.0N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard is gradually intensifying as a prominent curved band winds\r\nmost of the way around the tropical storm. However, the convective\r\ncloud tops are warming and the central dense overcast is a bit\r\nskeletal.  Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as the\r\nCIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique have increased and all indicate\r\nmaximum winds of around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity.\r\nEdouard is still being affected by 15-20 kt of vertical shear,\r\nprimarily being induced the southwesterly flow around a very large\r\ntropical upper-tropospheric trough to its west. As Edouard moves\r\npoleward of the trough axis within the next day or so, the shear\r\nwill diminish.  As the waters the system will traverse are a quite\r\nwarm 29C, only the somewhat dry atmosphere will not be conducive for\r\na more rapid intensification.  Edouard is expected to become a\r\nhurricane in a couple of days.  After recurvature in three to four\r\ndays, the storm motion and shear vectors are likely to align which\r\nshould allow Edouard to maintain its intensity through day 5. The\r\nNHC wind speed forecast is nearly the same as that in the previous\r\nadvisory and is based upon a blend of the LGEM statistical model and\r\nthe GFDL and HWRF dynamical models.\r\n\r\nA GCOM/AMSR2 microwave pass helped to locate the center of Edouard\r\nand also indicated that the system was tilted northward with height\r\nbecause of the vertical shear.  Edouard is moving toward the west-\r\nnorthwest around 13 kt, under the influence of a mid-level ridge\r\nover the central Atlantic. In about 3 to 4 days, the cyclone will\r\nrespond to a break in the ridge by recurving and then accelerating\r\ntoward the northeast.  The track guidance is tightly clustered\r\nthrough the whole forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is based\r\nupon the TVCA multi-model ensemble and is just to the east of the\r\nprevious track prediction through 48 hours and just west thereafter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 20.7N  46.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 21.7N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 23.1N  49.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 24.7N  51.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 26.1N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 29.5N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 33.5N  56.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Edouard has lost most of the deep convection, it has a\r\nvigorous low-level circulation. Dvorak t-numbers still support an\r\ninitial intensity of 45 kt.  There are some arc clouds currently\r\nmoving away from the main circulation suggesting that no important\r\nchanges in intensity are expected during the next few hours.\r\nHowever, the shear is decreasing and this is already reflected in\r\nthe current better defined upper-level outflow. The low shear, in\r\ncombination with the pool of anomalous warm waters ahead of Edouard,\r\nshould result in strengthening, and the cyclone should become a\r\nhurricane on Sunday or early Monday. The NHC forecast follows the\r\nguidance and is very close to the intensity consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\r\n305 degrees at 11 kt. The steering environment has not changed, with\r\nthe cyclone's motion being controlled by the subtropical ridge.\r\nThis pattern will keep Edouard on the same general track for the\r\nnext 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken\r\nand move east allowing Edouard to turn north, and then recurve\r\ninto the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close\r\nto the multi-model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in\r\nturning the cyclone northward over the Central Atlantic for the past\r\nseveral model cycles.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 21.7N  46.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 22.7N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 24.2N  50.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 25.7N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 27.1N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 35.0N  55.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 40.0N  47.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Edouard has blossomed this afternoon. The\r\ncloud pattern has become more symmetric, and the outflow is fair\r\ntoward the northwest. The initial intensity has been increased to 50\r\nkt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The low shear, in\r\ncombination with a pool of anomalously warm waters ahead of Edouard,\r\nshould result in strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for the\r\ncyclone to become a hurricane on Sunday or early on Monday. The\r\nintensity forecast is very close to the consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\r\n310 degrees at 11 kt.  The cyclone's motion is being controlled by\r\nthe subtropical ridge to its north. It appears that this ridge\r\nis a little stronger, and that pattern supports keeping Edouard on\r\na west-northwestward to northwestward course for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken and move\r\neastward, allowing Edouard to turn north and then recurve into the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-\r\nmodel consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in turning the\r\ncyclone northward over the central Atlantic for the past several\r\nmodel cycles.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 22.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 23.7N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 25.0N  51.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 26.4N  53.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 27.6N  55.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 31.0N  57.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 36.0N  54.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 42.0N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nThe compact inner-core of Edouard has become a little more\r\norganized during the evening.  A low- to mid-level eye-like feature\r\nhas intermittently appeared in microwave imagery, however, a 2206\r\nGMI image suggests that the low-level center remains displaced\r\nslightly to the south of the mid-level center.  The intensity has\r\nbeen increased to 55 kt, based on the Dvorak classification from\r\nTAFB and a timely 2354 UTC ASCAT-B pass that showed believable wind\r\nvectors of 49-51 kt.\r\n\r\nUpper-level outflow has expanded to the west, and to a lesser\r\ndegree, the south, indicative of decreasing vertical wind shear.\r\nIntensification is expected due to a more conducive environment,\r\nwith the only obvious impediment being some marginally dry air,\r\nprimarily to the south and east of Edouard.  The intensity guidance,\r\nparticularly DSHP, is forecasting a higher peak intensity this\r\ncycle.  The intensity forecast has been increased slightly for the\r\nfirst 96 hours of the forecast and remains very close to the\r\nconsensus aid IVCN.  By day 5, Edouard will be well embedded within\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies, and weakening is expected while\r\nextratropical transition occurs.\r\n\r\nEdouard continues to move steadily toward the northwest and the\r\nestimated initial motion is 305/12. There has been remarkable\r\nrun-to-run consistency in the track guidance for the past 4 cycles.\r\nEdouard is still expected to move on a general northwestward track\r\nfor the next couple of days before reaching a weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge and recurving. The NHC forecast has not been\r\nchanged substantially and remains very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCA.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 23.4N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 24.5N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 25.9N  52.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 27.2N  54.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 32.2N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 38.0N  52.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 42.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard continues to gradually intensify, as a tightly curved band\r\nhas wrapped around the cyclone's center.  Dvorak classifications\r\nfrom both TAFB and SAB are a 4.0, or 65 kt, while the CIMSS Advanced\r\nDvorak Technique is substantially lower.  The current intensity of\r\nEdouard is assessed as a high-end tropical storm at 60 kt, but the\r\nsystem may already be a hurricane given the uncertainties.  The\r\nvertical shear - primarily induced by a large tropical upper\r\ntropospheric trough to its west-southwest - has begun to relax, now\r\nthat Edouard has moved poleward of the trough axis. Vertical shear\r\npredicted by the global models should further weaken to less than 10\r\nkt from 24 through 72 hours.  This along with quite warm 29C waters\r\nis likely to lead to continued intensification through three days.\r\nThe new NHC forecast peaks Edouard's intensity at 95 kt (slightly\r\nhigher than that in the previous advisory), based upon a blend of\r\nthe SHIPS statistical model and HWRF dynamical model. While the\r\nvertical shear picks up significantly between days 3 and 4 as\r\nEdouard recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies, the storm motion\r\nand shear vectors are likely to align which would allow Edouard to\r\nmaintain its intensity through day 4.  By day 5, cold waters and\r\nvery strong vertical shear are anticipated to cause substantial\r\nweakening.  Both the FSU Cyclone Phase Space analysis and the SHIPS\r\nstorm type indicate Edouard will transition to an extratropical\r\ncyclone by day 5.\r\n\r\nThe improved organization of the deep convection as seen in the\r\ninfrared imagery as well as a couple of microwave passes allow for a\r\nfairly confident assessment of the current position.  Edouard is\r\nmoving toward the northwest at about 12 kt, primarily due to the\r\nsteering induced by a mid-level ridge to its northwest.  Edouard\r\nwill round the western periphery of the ridge and recurve toward\r\nthe northeast about 3 days.  The NHC track prediction is based upon\r\nthe tightly clustered multi-model TVCA track ensemble and is\r\nslightly west of that shown in the previous advisory through 72\r\nhours and slightly east thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe tropical-storm-force wind radii of Edouard was based upon an\r\nearlier ASCAT pass, which indicated a substantially larger size than\r\nthat previously analyzed.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 24.0N  49.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 25.0N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 26.2N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 27.5N  55.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 28.9N  57.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 33.0N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 38.5N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 42.0N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard's inner core convective pattern has continued to improve\r\nsince the previous advisory, with a ring of deep convection\r\nsurrounding a brief appearance of a 20 nmi diameter eye around 1200\r\nUTC. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-covered with cirrus\r\nfrom a strong convective burst in the western eyewall. A 0924 UTC\r\nWindsat microwave overpass revealed good low-level structure and a\r\n15-20 nmi diameter eye. Satellite intensity estimates are a\r\nconsensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT values\r\nhave been T4.4/75 kt for the past few hours. However, due to the\r\neye recently becoming cloud-filled, the initial intensity is only\r\nbeing increased to 70 kt, which still makes Edouard the fourth\r\nhurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season.\r\n\r\nEdouard has made slight wobble to the right, possibly due to the\r\nformation of the eye, but a 12-hour-average yields a motion of about\r\n305/14 kt. A deep-layer subtropical ridge along 30N-32N latitude is\r\nexpected to steer the hurricane northwestward today, followed by a\r\nturn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, the cyclone\r\nis expected to accelerate to the northeast ahead of a strong\r\nmid-tropospheric trough that is forecast to move off of the U.S.\r\neast coast. By Days 4 and 5, Edouard is expected to get caught up\r\ninto the strong mid-latitude westerlies and turn toward the\r\neast-northeast. The NHC model guidance is in excellent on this\r\ndeveloping steering pattern, and the official forecast closely\r\nfollows the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nGiven the well-developed structure noted in the Windsat imagery, a\r\nvery favorable poleward outflow pattern forecast to develop by all\r\nof the models, and anomalously warm SSTs of 29.5C ahead of the\r\ncyclone, there appears to be no physical reason why Edouard should\r\nnot continue to strengthen and eventually become a major hurricane\r\nover the next 2 days or so. The only inhibiting factor could be the\r\ndry mid-level air surrounding the cyclone, and that is the only\r\nreason why rapid intensification is not being forecast at this\r\ntime. By Day 4 and beyond, Edouard will be moving over sub-24C SSTs\r\nand encountering vertical wind shear greater than 25 kt, which is\r\nexpected to induce significant weakening. By Day 5, Edouard is\r\nforecast to transition to an extratropical cyclone as the system\r\nbecomes embedded within the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous\r\nforecast and the SHIPS model, except that the timing of the peak\r\nintensity has been moved forward by 24 hours, in order to coincide\r\nwith the time that Edouard will be over the warmest water and in the\r\nlowest shear conditions.\r\n\r\nA NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is currently conducting a research\r\nmission into Edouard.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 24.7N  50.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 25.8N  52.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 27.1N  54.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 28.5N  56.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 30.1N  56.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 34.5N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 39.4N  47.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 41.7N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard has become better organized this afternoon.  The eye of the\r\nhurricane has again made an appearance in satellite images, and\r\ndeep convection surrounding the center has increased in intensity\r\nand coverage during the past few hours.  NOAA hurricane hunters\r\ninvestigated the system this afternoon and found maximum flight-\r\nlevel winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds of 68 kt.  These data and\r\nthe consensus Dvorak classifications of 4.5/77 kt at 1800 UTC,\r\nsupport raising the initial wind speed to 75 kt.  Additional\r\nstrengthening seems likely during the next couple of days while the\r\nhurricane remains over warm water and the shear lessens somewhat.\r\nThe only potential inhibiting factor is the influence of dry air\r\nthat is seen wrapping into the eastern side of the circulation.\r\nSteady weakening is expected beyond a couple of days when the\r\ncyclone moves over much cooler water and into a stable air mass,\r\nwhich will eventually cause extratropical transition to occur in\r\nabout 5 days. Little change was made to the previous intensity\r\nforecast, with the current forecast showing a peak intensity in\r\nabout two days followed by a steady decline after that.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300/13 kt, steered by\r\na subtropical ridge centered to its north.  This ridge is expected\r\nto weaken and shift eastward, and that should cause Edouard to\r\ngradually turn toward the north during the next couple of days.  By\r\nmid-week, Edouard is expected to become embedded in the mid-latitude\r\nzonal flow that will cause the cyclone to turn toward the east.  The\r\nNHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west for the next few\r\ndays, toward the latest guidance, and is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory at 96 and 120 h.\r\n\r\nThe NASA Global Hawk is currently dropping numerous dropsondes into\r\nand around the circulation of Edouard.  These data will be useful in\r\nanalyzing the intensity and structure of the hurricane, and should\r\nhelp the models better initialize the cyclone and its environment.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 25.4N  52.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 26.4N  53.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 27.8N  55.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 29.3N  56.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 31.2N  56.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 35.9N  53.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 40.1N  45.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 41.0N  37.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n \r\nEdouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this\r\nevening.  Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it\r\nhas recently disappeared.  Convective cloud top temperatures in the\r\ncentral dense overcast have also warmed during the past several\r\nhours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into\r\nportions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so\r\nthe initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt.\r\n \r\nThe environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive\r\nfor intensification during the next day or two.  While traversing\r\nwarm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48\r\nhours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental\r\nair wrapping around the circulation.  After achieving a peak\r\nintensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely\r\nto commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and\r\ndramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond\r\n72 hours. Edouard's interaction with a shortwave trough moving\r\nacross Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of\r\nextratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear\r\ncut on a completion of this process by day 5.  The intensity\r\nforecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72\r\nhours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n \r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on\r\na northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until\r\nthe ridge retreats eastward in a day or so.  This change in the\r\nsteering pattern should result in Edouard's turning sharply\r\nnorthward  in about 36 hours.  The hurricane should then be captured\r\nby a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward\r\nin 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward\r\nspeed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the\r\nleft this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in\r\nthat direction.  The new track forecast, however, lies on the far\r\nright side of the guidance envelope.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  15/0300Z 26.2N  53.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 27.2N  54.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 30.2N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 32.4N  56.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 37.4N  51.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 41.2N  42.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  20/0000Z 41.2N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nData from a NASA Global Hawk mission indicate that Edouard has\r\nstrengthened since yesterday's NOAA P-3 flight.  A dropsonde\r\nreleased in the eyewall measured a surface pressure of 969 mb at\r\n0424 UTC, and based on pressure-wind relationships, the\r\ncorresponding intensity would normally be near the threshold for a\r\nmajor hurricane.  This is supported by a 95-100 kt estimate from the\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT.  On the other hand, low-level wind data from the\r\ndropsondes, as well as Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, yield an\r\nintensity estimate between 75-80 kt.  As a compromise between the\r\ndata, the intensity is raised to 90 kt on this advisory.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions should support some additional\r\nintensification during the next couple of days.  Modest\r\nsoutheasterly shear could affect Edouard for the next day or so, but\r\nthe shear is expected to diminish by 36-48 hours.  In addition, the\r\nhurricane is forecast to remain over warm water for another 2-3\r\ndays, and the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Edouard reaching\r\nmajor hurricane status between 24-48 hours.  After that time, the\r\ncyclone will be moving over much colder water, and a fast weakening\r\ntrend is expected by day 3.  Edouard is forecast to be over 22C\r\nwater by days 4 and 5, which is likely to cause the system to lose\r\nits deep convection and become post-tropical.  At this point, it\r\nappears that Edouard will remain separate from any frontal zones\r\nover the north Atlantic and not become extratropical during the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 305/13 kt.  Edouard is expected to turn\r\nnorthward around a mid-tropospheric high located to its east and\r\nthen northeastward in 2-3 days when it becomes embedded in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The track guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, and there is very little spread among the various\r\nmodels.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the\r\nprevious one and is nudged in the direction of the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 26.9N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 27.9N  55.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 29.6N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 34.1N  55.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 39.1N  48.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 41.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images show that the eye of Edouard has become larger\r\nand more distinct during the past few hours, with a fairly\r\nsymmetric inner-core convective pattern.  Despite the improved\r\nstructure, Dvorak classifications were unchanged from earlier so\r\nthe initial wind speed is held at 90 kt.  Three NOAA hurricane\r\nhunter aircraft are currently en route to investigate Edouard and\r\nwill provide excellent data to help assess its intensity and\r\nstructure.\r\n\r\nEdouard has been moving on a steady northwestward path at about 13\r\nkt for the past 24 hours, but a gradual turn toward the north is\r\nexpected during the next day or so while the subtropical ridge to\r\nits north shifts eastward and weakens.  By late Tuesday and\r\nWednesday, Edouard is forecast to be embedded in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies, causing the cyclone to accelerate to the northeast.  A\r\ndecrease in forward speed and a turn to the east or southeast is\r\npredicted by the end of the forecast period when the system is\r\nsteered by the flow to the west of a deep-layer low over the\r\nnortheast Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is nudged to the left\r\nof the previous track through 72 hours, toward the latest TVCA\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nSome strengthening appears likely during the next 24 to 36 hours\r\nwhile the hurricane remains in favorable conditions.  Beyond that\r\ntime, cooler water, dry air, and a pronounced increase in shear\r\nshould cause the system to weaken steadily.  Post-tropical\r\ntransition is expected by day 4 when the cyclone is forecast to be\r\nover sea surface temperature below 23 C.  The post-tropical phase of\r\nthe track and intensity forecast is partially based on guidance from\r\nNOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 27.3N  55.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 28.6N  56.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 35.4N  54.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 40.0N  45.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 40.5N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard is approaching category 3 strength.  The eye of the\r\nhurricane has become circular this afternoon, and deep convection\r\nhas increased in the eyewall.  Flight-level and SFMR winds, as well\r\nas dropsonde data from two NOAA reconnaissance aircraft, indicate\r\nthat maximum winds are near 95 kt and the minimum pressure has\r\ndecreased to 963 mb.  Radar images from one of the NOAA aircraft\r\nindicate that the convective pattern is quite symmetric.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane could strengthen some more during the next day or so\r\nwhile both the atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain favorable.\r\nAfter that time, however, cooler water, drier air, and a notable\r\nincrease in shear should cause Edouard to weaken at a steady pace.\r\nThe cyclone is forecast to transition to a post-tropical cyclone by\r\nday 4 when it is expected to be over very cold water and interacting\r\nwith a frontal zone.  The NHC intensity forecast is at the high end\r\nof the model guidance for the next 36 hours, and then follows the\r\nintensity model consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nEdouard continues to move northwestward but at a slightly slower\r\npace than earlier, 305/11 kt.  Water vapor imagery and satellite-\r\nderived winds indicate that the western side of the ridge that has\r\nbeen steering the hurricane is eroding in response to a trough over\r\nthe western Atlantic.  This change in the large-scale pattern\r\nshould cause Edouard to turn northward during the next 24 hours.\r\nBy late Tuesday and Wednesday, the system is expected to accelerate\r\nnortheastward and then eastward when it becomes embedded in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  A slow down and a turn toward the\r\nsoutheast is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the\r\nweakening system is steered by the flow on the west side of a\r\ndeep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast\r\nhas again been nudged to the left to come into better agreement with\r\nthe latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 28.0N  56.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 29.5N  57.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 31.6N  57.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 34.0N  55.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 36.8N  52.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 40.6N  43.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 40.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard has not strengthened further.  While the eye has become\r\nsomewhat better defined and warmer since the last advisory, deep\r\nconvection in the central dense overcast is not quite as cold.  The\r\nintensification phase that the cyclone was experiencing earlier may\r\nhave been interrupted by 15-20 kt of southeasterly shear as analyzed\r\nby the SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS analyses.  Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while\r\nUW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt.  A blend of these data is\r\nused to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt.\r\n\r\nEdouard still has another 24-36 hours to intensify.  Moderately\r\nstrong southeasterly shear, resulting from the flow between\r\na low to the southwest and a high to the east at upper levels, is\r\nforecast to decrease as Edouard nears its point of recurvature.\r\nNear and immediately after that time, the shear and motion vectors\r\nshould align, which tends to favor more symmetric convection.  These\r\nfavorable factors, despite gradually cooler waters beneath the\r\ncyclone, should allow Edouard to reach major hurricane status.\r\nDrastically cooler waters and a substantial increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear beyond 48 hours suggest that a rapid decay of\r\nthe cyclone should occur by that time.  Interaction with a\r\nbaroclinic zone in 2-3 days should cause the beginning of\r\nextratropical transition, but this process is expected to become\r\ninterrupted when the cyclone shears apart and outruns this weather\r\nsystem.  Edouard is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 96\r\nhours, if not slightly sooner, and gradually spin down over the\r\nnortheastern Atlantic.  The NHC wind speed forecast is the same as\r\nthe previous one through 48 hours and is above all of the intensity\r\nguidance. The forecast is lowered relative to the last advisory\r\nafter that time and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nEdouard has recently turned north-northwestward and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is now 335/11.  The track guidance remains in\r\nexcellent agreement through 72 hours.  The cyclone is expected to\r\nturn northward in 12-18 hours when it rounds the western periphery\r\nof a subtropical ridge.  An acceleration toward the northeast, and\r\nthen east-northeast, is expected beyond 24 hours as Edouard is\r\ncaptured by a relatively fast-paced westerly flow over the north\r\nAtlantic.  Near the end of the forecast period, the increasingly\r\nshallow vortex should turn eastward and southeastward within the\r\nflow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast\r\nAtlantic.  The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the left on\r\nthis cycle.  However, to maintain continuity, the new NHC track\r\nforecast is only nudged to the left of the previous one, and lies on\r\nthe far right side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 29.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 30.5N  57.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 32.8N  56.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 35.5N  54.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 38.1N  50.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 40.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  21/0000Z 38.6N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nConvective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally\r\nbeen as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during\r\nthe past few hours.  In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that\r\nthe hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side.  The\r\nDvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but\r\ndecreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding\r\nsteady near T5.6/105 kt.  Due to the discrepancy between the various\r\nestimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt.\r\n\r\nAnalyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15\r\nkt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard.  The shear\r\nis expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will\r\nbe warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a\r\nchance to strengthen a bit.  The intensity guidance has decreased,\r\nwith none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard\r\nreaching major hurricane strength.  However, given the improving\r\nenvironment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the\r\npossibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours.  After\r\nthat time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water\r\nand increasing vertical shear.  The forecast continues to show\r\nEdouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin\r\nto struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3\r\nwhile it's over 22C water.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt.  Edouard\r\nis located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn\r\nnorthward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during\r\nthe next 24-36 hours.  An eastward acceleration is expected by 48\r\nhours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and\r\nslow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a\r\ndeep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The track guidance\r\ncontinues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast\r\nhas only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to\r\nbe closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 30.2N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 31.7N  57.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 37.1N  52.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 39.5N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 41.3N  39.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 40.5N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  21/0600Z 38.5N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images show that Edouard has an impressive\r\nsatellite presentation, displaying a well-defined eye within the\r\ncentral dense overcast.  Edouard is upgraded to a major\r\nhurricane based on a subjective Dvorak intensity estimate of 102 kt\r\nfrom TAFB, an ADT estimate of 107 kt, and a recent SFMR surface\r\nwind of 97 kt in the southwest eyewall.  Edouard is the first major\r\nhurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, and the\r\nfirst category 3 or greater hurricane in the basin since Sandy on\r\nOctober 25, 2012.\r\n\r\nEdouard is expected to reach its peak intensity within the next\r\n12-18 hours while it remains in light shear conditions and over warm\r\nwaters.  A combination of decreasing SSTs and increasing shear\r\nshould cause the hurricane to start a steady weakening by late\r\ntomorrow.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement, and the\r\nlatest NHC forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction and the\r\nintensity consensus.  Edouard is expected to become post-tropical by\r\nday 4, but this transition could even occur around day 3 due to\r\nrather cool waters in the cyclone's path.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is gradually shifting to the right, now 345/11.\r\nEdouard remains located to the west of the subtropical high and will\r\nturn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies\r\nduring the next 24-36 hours.   An eastward acceleration is expected\r\nby 48 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and\r\nslow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a\r\ndeep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores.  The interaction of\r\nthe low and the tropical cyclone is causing the model guidance to\r\nbecome more divergent at long range, with the GFS and the GFDL\r\nmodels taking the cyclone well north of the Azores.  However,\r\nthe GFS ensemble is much farther southwest than the deterministic\r\nGFS, and is much more consistent with the previous forecast and the\r\nbulk of the guidance.  Thus, I have elected to leave the NHC\r\nprediction virtually unchanged from the previous one, even though\r\nthe model consensus is a fair distance to the northeast of the new\r\nofficial track at long range.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 31.1N  57.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 33.0N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 38.4N  50.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 40.3N  45.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 41.0N  38.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 40.0N  35.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  21/1200Z 38.0N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave and NOAA Hurricane Hunter radar data suggest that Edouard\r\nhas begun an eyewall cycle, with a pair of concentric rings seen in\r\na 1605 UTC GCOM microwave image.  The last few passes from the\r\naircraft had a maximum flight-level wind of 93 kt, with 85 kt from\r\nthe SFMR observed a few hours ago.  These data suggest an initial\r\nwind speed of 90 kt for this advisory.  Since the hurricane has less\r\nthan 24 hours over warm water, it is not expected to complete its\r\neyewall cycle, and will probably slowly weaken.  After that time,\r\nEdouard should continue to lose strength when it moves over much\r\ncooler water and into higher shear.  The NHC forecast is lower than\r\nthe previous one, below most of the guidance for the first day in\r\nconsideration of the current structure, then is blended with the\r\nintensity consensus after that time. The cyclone is expected to\r\nbecome post-tropical in the day 3 or 4 time frame, and become\r\nextratropical by day 5 since most of the global models show it\r\ndeveloping frontal features by that time.\r\n\r\nEdouard has turned toward the north and is moving a little\r\nfaster at about 13 kt.  The hurricane will move northeastward into\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours while it\r\nmoves on the northwest side of the subtropical high.  An eastward\r\nacceleration is expected by 48 hours, and the cyclone is still\r\nforecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it\r\nmoves around a trough over the eastern Atlantic.  Model guidance is\r\nin much better agreement than the last cycle and the official\r\nforecast is very close to the previous one, near the model\r\nconsensus and the ECMWF model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 32.3N  57.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 34.3N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 39.7N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 40.9N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 40.2N  37.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 39.4N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  21/1800Z 36.0N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nA 2145 UTC WindSat 37 GHZ composite image revealed two concentric\r\nrings, with both the inner and outer rings containing hurricane\r\nforce winds as observed by a NOAA P-3 aircraft.  Therefore, the 64-\r\nkt wind radii have been adjusted outward to 70 n mi over the\r\nsoutheast and southwest quadrants.  Additionally, an earlier lower\r\nfuselage radar image from the NOAA P-3 indicated that the highest\r\nreflectivity DBZ values occurred in these quadrants. The initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 80 kt for this advisory and is a compromise\r\nof the highest SFMR-observed surface wind of 73 kt, a peak\r\nflight-level wind of 81 kt, and a blend of Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nGradual weakening is expected through the forecast period as the\r\ncyclone quickly moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and\r\nwithin increasing westerly shear. The intensity forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the previous package and closely resembles\r\nthe IVCN intensity consensus. Edouard should lose its tropical\r\ncharacteristics and become a post-tropical cyclone in 3 days, or\r\nless, due to the aforementioned cooler water and vertical shear.\r\nThrough the remainder of the forecast, the large-scale models all\r\nagree upon Edouard becoming absorbed within an extensive\r\nmid-latitude baroclinic zone.\r\n\r\nThe current motion of the cyclone is estimated to be northeastward,\r\nor 035/15.  Edouard will continue to accelerate northeastward to\r\neast-northeastward during the next 36 hours within the\r\nmid-tropospheric flow on the northwestern and northern side of a\r\nmid-Atlantic high pressure area. Afterward, an eastward motion\r\nis expected with further acceleration.  A rather abrupt reduction in\r\nforward speed with a turn toward the east-southeast is expected as\r\nEdouard rounds the western periphery of a large baroclinic low\r\nsituated to the west of the Iberian peninsula.  The official NHC\r\nforecast is nudged just a bit to the right of the previous forecast\r\ntrack at days 4 and 5, and is close to the TVCA multi-model\r\nconsensus and the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program\r\n(HFIP)/National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)\r\nproject 133 member multi-model ensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 33.5N  56.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 35.7N  54.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 38.4N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 40.2N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 40.5N  40.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 40.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 38.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  22/0000Z 35.5N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard's presentation on infrared satellite imagery has changed\r\nvery little during the past 6 hours, and recent microwave images\r\nindicate that the hurricane still has two well-defined low-level\r\nconcentric rings.  A dropsonde released into the southeastern\r\neyewall just after 0600 UTC during a NASA Global Hawk mission\r\nmeasured an average wind of 90 kt in the lowest 150 meters, which\r\nequates to an intensity of about 75 kt.  Edouard's initial\r\nintensity is being held at 80 kt under the assumption that the\r\ndropsondes did not sample the maximum winds in the eyewall.\r\nTwo dropsondes within the eye measured surface pressures of 960 and\r\n961 mb with some wind, supporting the previous estimated storm\r\npressure of 959 mb.\r\n\r\nEdouard is likely to reach water colder than 26C in about 12\r\nhours or so.  Just as the hurricane reaches the colder water,\r\nvertical shear is expected to increase, and the SHIPS guidance shows\r\nwesterly shear of 35 kt in about 48 hours.  With the environment\r\nbecoming so hostile, the hurricane is forecast to gradually weaken\r\nduring the next 24 hours and then more rapidly lose strength after\r\nthat.  The global models continue to show Edouard remaining separate\r\nfrom nearby frontal zones and not benefiting from baroclinic\r\nsupport, so the cyclone is likely to become a decaying post-tropical\r\nlow by day 3, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nEdouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 035/17 kt.\r\nThe hurricane is becoming partially embedded in faster mid-latitude\r\nwesterly flow, and it is expected to continue accelerating for the\r\nnext 24 hours or so.  However, the cyclone is forecast to stay\r\nsouth of the polar jet, and by 48 hours it will turn eastward and\r\nslow down as it moves around a mid-level ridge axis.  Toward the\r\nend of the forecast period, the remnant low should turn southward\r\nbefore it reaches the main islands of the Azores.  The track\r\nguidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but then\r\nshows some divergence during the post-tropical phase, with the\r\nECMWF and HWRF showing the sharpest southward turn.  The updated NHC\r\ntrack is very close to the multi-model consensus TVCA and not too\r\nfar from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 35.1N  55.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 37.2N  52.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 39.3N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 40.3N  42.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 40.3N  39.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 40.1N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 38.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  22/0600Z 35.5N  32.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard is maintaining two concentric rings as indicated in the\r\nlatest visible satellite images and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft wind data.  Even though the central pressure is rather low,\r\n958 mb, the pressure gradient is spread out over the large area\r\ncomprising the two rings, leading to a lower peak wind than a\r\ntypical cyclone would have. Flight-level and SFMR winds still\r\nsupport an intensity of about 80 kt, which is unchanged from the\r\nprevious estimate.\r\n\r\nEdouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt.\r\nThe hurricane is being steered by mid-latitude flow between the\r\nsubtropical ridge and a broad trough over the western Atlantic\r\nOcean.  This pattern should force Edouard to move faster toward the\r\neast-northeast by late tonight, and eastward by late tomorrow.   In\r\na couple of days, Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southward\r\nto the west of the Azores around a large trough over the eastern\r\nAtlantic Ocean.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered for\r\nthe first 48 hours but continues to show some divergence during\r\nthe post-tropical phase.  The ECMWF has remained consistent on a\r\nsharper southward turn, while the GFS is showing a more gradual\r\nequatorward motion.  Because of the consistency of the ECMWF during\r\nthe past few runs, the latest NHC track is staying on the southwest\r\nside of the model envelope at long range, roughly halfway between\r\nthe model consensus and the ECMWF.\r\n\r\nEdouard is moving quickly toward the northeast and should pass over\r\nwaters cooler than 26C in less than 12 hours.  Only a gradual\r\nweakening is shown during the first 24 hours due to cooler waters\r\nand moderate shear.  All of the global models show a sharp increase\r\nin shear after that time while the cyclone is moving over much\r\ncolder water.  Thus a more rapid weakening is shown beginning late\r\ntomorrow, which is similar to a blend of the previous NHC forecast,\r\nthe Florida State Superensemble, and the intensity consensus.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to become post-tropical in 2 or 3 days, which\r\nis in good agreement with the global models.  Although Edouard is\r\nexpected to traverse warmer waters by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, strong northwesterly shear is anticipated to hinder any\r\nredevelopment potential.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 36.4N  53.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 38.3N  49.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 39.8N  44.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 40.1N  40.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 39.7N  38.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 39.4N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 37.5N  33.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  22/1200Z 34.5N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nAn earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft research mission showed a\r\nmaximum 700 mb flight-level wind of 91 kt, with peak SFMR winds of\r\n71 kt. Since the plane left a few hours ago, the satellite\r\nappearance of Edouard has become less organized, with warming\r\nconvection in the eyewall and a cooling eye.  The initial intensity\r\nis set to 75 kt for this advisory, a blend of the SFMR data and the\r\nhigher satellite classifications.  A combination of cooling waters\r\nand increasing shear should keep Edouard on a general weakening\r\ntrend throughout the 120-hour period.  Post-tropical transition is\r\nindicated in the latest NHC forecast at 48 hours due to Edouard\r\nmoving over cold waters with strong shear. The cyclone is expected\r\nto dissipate by day 5, which is in good agreement with almost all of\r\nthe global models.\r\n\r\nEdouard is moving faster to the northeast, now 055/23.  A gradual\r\nturn to the east is expected, along with some decrease in forward\r\nspeed by late tomorrow, due to Edouard moving becoming more steered\r\nby the subtropical ridge rather than faster mid-latitude westerlies.\r\nEdouard (or its remnants) should turn southeastward in a few days\r\nwhile it moves around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic.\r\nAlthough the general synoptic pattern has not changed, the track\r\nguidance has taken a notable eastward shift in this cycle,\r\napparently due to the weaker low-level circulation decoupling from\r\nthe mid-level northerly flow.  Consequently, the latest forecast is\r\nshifted quite a bit to the east at day 4, although there probably\r\nwon't be much of Edouard by that point.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 37.8N  51.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 39.4N  47.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 40.4N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 40.2N  39.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 40.0N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 40.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard is maintaining its strength this evening despite being over\r\ncool waters.  Satellite pictures indicate that deep convection in\r\nthe inner-core region has increased a little during the past few\r\nhours, and microwave images continue to show concentric eyewalls.\r\nThe initial intensity is held at 75 kt, which is in agreement with\r\nthe Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.  Although the\r\nhurricane has not yet weakened, very cold water along the\r\nexpected track along with a substantial increase in westerly shear\r\nshould cause a steady weakening during the next couple of days.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and\r\nlies in the middle of the guidance envelope.  Post-tropical\r\ntransition is expected to occur in 36 to 48 hours, when Edouard is\r\nforecast to be over waters around 23 C.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is racing to the east-northeast in the strong\r\nmid-latitude flow across the central Atlantic, with the initial\r\nmotion estimated to be 060/26.  A turn to the east and then\r\nsoutheast with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the\r\nnext few days when the cyclone is steered by the weaker flow\r\nbetween a subtropical ridge to its southwest and a deep-layer low\r\nto its northeast.  The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast\r\nduring the post-tropical phase is close to the guidance provided by\r\nNOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 38.7N  48.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 39.8N  44.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 40.2N  40.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 40.1N  38.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 39.4N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 37.0N  29.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":28,"Date":"2014-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nAn 0426 UTC GCOM microwave pass showed that Edouard has a small,\r\nsolid inner eyewall surrounded by a thinning outer ring of deep\r\nconvection.  The infrared satellite presentation has not changed\r\nappreciably from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at\r\n75 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT.  Edouard is over 24C water, but there is still some\r\natmospheric instability available for the hurricane to maintain its\r\nconvective structure.  However, the SHIPS guidance shows the\r\ninstability decreasing and westerly vertical shear increasing over\r\n30 kt during the next 24 hours, so Edouard is expected to begin a\r\nfaster weakening trend later today.  The hostile conditions should\r\ncause Edouard to lose all of its deep convection in 36-48 hours,\r\nand the official forecast still calls for the system to be a\r\npost-tropical low in 48 hours and dissipate by day 5.  The NHC\r\nforecast is just an update of the previous one and closely follows\r\nthe ICON intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane appears to be slowing down just a little bit and has\r\nan initial motion of 065/24 kt.  Edouard is moving around the\r\nnorthern side of a mid-tropospheric high located over the central\r\nAtlantic, and it is forecast to turn eastward and then southeastward\r\naround this feature during the next 3 days.  Most of the track\r\nmodels are in good agreement on this scenario.  The two main\r\noutliers are the UKMET, which shows a sharper southward turn after\r\n12 hours, and the GFDL, which shows Edouard continuing to race\r\nnortheastward ahead of a cold front.  The updated NHC track forecast\r\nis close to a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models and is a\r\nlittle south and west of the previous forecast after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 39.6N  45.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 40.1N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 39.9N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 35.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Edouard","Adv":29,"Date":"2014-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nA 0906 UTC SSMIS pass showed that the eyewall of Edouard had opened\r\nup on the southwest side and the circulation was becoming somewhat\r\ntilted with height. This tilt was confirmed by an ASCAT pass around\r\n1230 UTC. The coverage of cold convective tops is gradually\r\ndecreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a\r\nblend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB,\r\nand UW-CIMSS. Given that the cyclone will be moving over cooler\r\nwaters and experiencing increased vertical wind shear, steady\r\nweakening is expected during the next 24 hours. Edouard should lose\r\nits deep convection in 36 to 48 hours and become post-tropical by\r\nthat time. Global model fields show the circulation of Edouard\r\ndissipating by the end of the period, and that is reflected in the\r\nofficial forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is an update of\r\nthe previous one and is close to the IVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now eastward, or 085/22, as Edouard\r\nis currently located north of a mid-level ridge over the central\r\nAtlantic. The cyclone will move eastward and then southeastward\r\naround this ridge during the next 72 hours, and then turn southward\r\nby day 4. Most of the track model guidance remains in good agreement\r\non this scenario, with the continued exception of the GFDL and\r\nUKMET which show a more northeastward and southward motion,\r\nrespectively. The new NHC track forecast is close to a consensus of\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF models, and is similar to the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii were modified based on data from the\r\nabove-mentioned ASCAT pass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 39.9N  42.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 40.1N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 40.0N  36.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 37.5N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 33.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":30,"Date":"2014-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nOver the past 6 hours, visible and microwave satellite imagery\r\nindicate that the upper-level and low-level circulations have\r\nstarted to decouple due to strong westerly vertical wind shear, with\r\nthe upper-level center having become displaced more than 60 nmi east\r\nof the low-level center. The initial motion of 090/14 kt is based\r\nmainly on microwave fixes. Edouard is forecast to move around the\r\nnorthern and eastern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located\r\nalong 30N-32N latitude. The models are in excellent agreement on\r\nthe cyclone moving eastward for the next 48 hours, followed by a\r\nturn to the southeast on Day 3 and to the south on Day 4. The new\r\nNHC forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track,\r\nand basically lies in the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nEdouard is forecast to remain over sub-24C SSTs and encounter\r\nincreasing westerly shear of near 35 kt in 12-24 hours. The\r\ncombination of these adverse conditions is expected to result in the\r\nrapid demise of Edouard, with the system becoming a post-tropical\r\ncyclone in 24 hours, if not sooner. The global models continue to\r\nshow the circulation of Edouard dissipating by Day 5 as it interacts\r\nwith and perhaps becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory\r\nand closely follows a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 39.9N  41.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 39.9N  39.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 39.8N  37.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 39.8N  35.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 39.8N  33.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 37.0N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 32.5N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":31,"Date":"2014-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard has not changed much during the past several hours.\r\nMicrowave images indicate that the low-level center is located on\r\nthe western side of the main area of deep convection due to about\r\n30 kt of westerly shear. Despite being in a strong shear environment\r\nand over cool waters, an ASCAT pass just before 0000 UTC indicated\r\nthat Edouard has not weakened significantly.  Maximum reliable winds\r\nseen in the ASCAT data are in the 55 to 60 kt range, and dropsonde\r\nwind reports from the NASA Global Hawk suggest a similar intensity.\r\nTherefore, the initial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  The storm is expected to remain in hostile conditions,\r\ntherefore, steady weakening is anticipated and Edouard is forecast\r\nto become post-tropical in about 24 hours.  The global models show\r\nthe post-tropical cyclone degenerating into a trough by 96 hours,\r\nand this is reflected in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that Edouard is moving eastward at about 15\r\nkt on the north side of a subtropical high.  A continued eastward\r\nmotion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted for the next\r\nday or so, followed by a turn to the southeast when the cyclone\r\nbecomes embedded in the flow between the subtropical high and a deep\r\nlayer low over the northeast Atlantic Ocean.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is nudged a little to the north of the previous one, and\r\nlies very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA.\r\n\r\nThe 34- and 50-kt wind radii were updated based on the ASCAT pass\r\nand the NASA Global Hawk dropsonde data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 39.9N  39.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 39.9N  37.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 39.9N  36.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 40.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 39.5N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 36.0N  29.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":32,"Date":"2014-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Edouard has become much less\r\norganized during the past several hours.  The low-level center is\r\nnow exposed with no associated deep convection, with the old mid-\r\nlevel circulation decoupled well to the southeast.  With the\r\nabsence of deep convection, Edouard is probably losing strength\r\nquickly, so the initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt, a little\r\nhigher than the average of the satellite estimates in consideration\r\nof the earlier Global Hawk/ASCAT data.  Edouard is unlikely to\r\nredevelop organized deep convection since it is over 23C water with\r\nstrong shear.  Thus, the storm should continue to weaken and will\r\nlikely become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  Extratropical\r\ntransition is indicated in a couple of days since most of the global\r\nmodels are now showing the former tropical cyclone developing\r\nfrontal features by that time.\r\n\r\nEdouard has slowed down considerably during the past few hours, with\r\ninitial motion estimate of 090/6 kt.   A continued eastward\r\nmotion is predicted for the next day or so, followed by a turn to\r\nthe southeast when the cyclone becomes embedded in the flow between\r\nthe subtropical high and a deep-layer low over the northeast\r\nAtlantic Ocean.  The latest NHC forecast is blend of the previous\r\nNHC prediction and the latest dynamical model consensus, which\r\nresults in a small westward shift in the 48-72 hour time frame.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 39.8N  38.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 39.7N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 39.7N  35.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 39.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 38.5N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 34.5N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Edouard","Adv":33,"Date":"2014-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 19 2014\r\n\r\nEdouard is weakening rapidly.  Strong northwesterly shear has\r\ncaused the low- and mid-level centers of the cyclone to decouple\r\nduring the last 12 hours. The system has also been devoid of any\r\ndeep convection for some time, and unless it returns, Edouard\r\nwill be declared a post-tropical cyclone later today. Using a blend\r\nof Dvorak CI and Final T numbers, the initial intensity estimate is\r\nlowered to 40 kt. A 1214 UTC ASCAT pass showed believable 33-kt wind\r\nvectors in the southwestern quadrant, suggesting that somewhat\r\nhigher winds are possible elsewhere in the southern half of the\r\ncirculation. Edouard is expected to spin down further during the\r\nnext couple of days due to a continuation of strong northwesterly\r\nshear and its passage over cold water.  Extratropical transition is\r\nindicated by the global models in about 48 hours.  The intensity\r\nforecast is a bit lower than the previous one and now shows\r\nremnant low status sooner.  Dissipation is expected in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nEdouard has significantly decelerated during the last 6-12 hours,\r\nand the initial motion estimate is 110/03.  The cyclone is expected\r\nto move eastward with some increase in forward speed during the next\r\nday or so as it rounds the northern side of a low-level ridge to\r\nthe south.  A turn toward the southeast and south is shown after\r\nthat time as the extratropical cyclone dives into the flow on the\r\nwest side of a low pressure area over the northeastern Atlantic.\r\nThe track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, only\r\nshifted a bit to the left but not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 39.5N  38.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 39.6N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 39.5N  35.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 38.9N  32.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 37.3N  30.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 33.0N  30.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Huffman\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Edouard","Adv":34,"Date":"2014-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062014\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 19 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Edouard consists of a large but\r\ntight swirl of low-level clouds.  Since the cyclone has been absent\r\nany deep convection for more than 12 hours, Edouard is being\r\ndeclared a post-tropical cyclone at this time.  A blend of the 1800\r\nUTC TAFB Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers suggests an initial intensity\r\nof 35 kt, which is in basic agreement with a morning ASCAT pass.\r\nPost-tropical cyclone Edouard should continue moving over cooler\r\nwaters and in an environment of strong northwesterly wind shear.\r\nThus, additional weakening is expected during the next day or so\r\nprior to Edouard becoming extratropical in about 36 hours when it\r\nmerges with a front.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center of the cyclone jogged southeastward earlier this\r\nmorning, it has since resumed an eastward motion at a faster forward\r\nspeed or 090/06.  Now a shallow feature, Edouard should accelerate\r\neastward on the north side of a low-level ridge of high pressure\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  The track should then bend southeastward\r\nand southward around the flow associated with a mid-latitude cyclone\r\nover the northeastern Atlantic. The track forecast is basically an\r\nupdate of the previous one, only shifted slightly to the left to be\r\nin line with the TVCA multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Edouard. Additional information on this system can be found in\r\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 39.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 39.4N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 39.0N  33.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 38.0N  31.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 36.3N  30.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Huffman\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 10 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located\r\nseveral hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands has\r\ndeveloped a large area of deep convection in a long curved band\r\nnorth and west of the center. First-light visible satellite imagery\r\nalso indicates that the low-level center of the low has become\r\nbetter defined since yesterday.  Satellite classifications are a\r\nsubtropical 1.5 from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, and the system's\r\ninvolvement with a nearby upper-level low and roughly 100 n mi\r\nradius of maximum winds also argue for a subtropical designation. An\r\nAir Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the depression\r\nthis afternoon to better assess its intensity and structure.\r\n\r\nThe protective cover of the nearby upper low will provide a\r\nrelatively low vertical wind shear environment in the short\r\nterm, with the cyclone over warm sea surface temperatures of 28-\r\n29 deg C.  The model guidance indicates that the depression should\r\nbecome embedded in increasing southerly vertical shear east of the\r\nsame upper-level trough after 24 hours, so the system has a\r\nshort window for intensification or transformation into a tropical\r\ncyclone.  Global models depict the cyclone becoming absorbed by a\r\nfrontal zone over the north-central Atlantic before 72 hours.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is close to the statistical-dynamical\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northwestward or 320/09 around the\r\nsouthwestern perhiphery of a mid-level ridge over the central\r\nAtlantic.  The deep-layer steering flow around this feature should\r\ncause the cyclone to turn northward within 24 hours, after which it\r\nwill turn northeastward in increasing southwesterly flow at the base\r\nof a longwave trough prior to absorption by the front. The NHC track\r\nforecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, TVCA, through-\r\nout the period and between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.\r\n\r\nThe Bermuda Weather Service has issued a tropical storm watch for\r\nBermuda.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 23.8N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 25.1N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 26.8N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 29.4N  64.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 31.5N  62.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance\r\naircraft indicate that the subtropical cyclone has become a little\r\nbetter organized since the previous advisory. Deep convection has\r\ngradually been developing closer to the low-level circulation\r\ncenter, and a maximum SFMR surface wind measured thus far by the\r\naircraft has been 35 kt. Based on this information, plus a\r\nsubtropical satellite classification of ST2.5/35 kt from TAFB, this\r\nsystem has been upgraded to Subtropical Storm Fay. The Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft will continue investigating Fay for the next hour\r\nor so.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 330/10 kt. Fay is expected to move\r\nsteadily northwestward and then northward around the western\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located along 29N-30N\r\nlatitude for the next 24 hours. By 36 hours, the cyclone is expected\r\nto recurve toward the northeast and accelerate when it becomes\r\nembedded in the strong mid-latitude flow ahead of an approaching\r\nshortwave trough that is currently located near the U.S. east coast.\r\nThe latest NHC model guidance has shifted somewhat to the west,\r\nespecially the ECMWF model, but the models remain tightly clustered\r\nand in good agreement on the aforementioned track scenario,\r\nincluding absorption by a frontal system by 72 hours. The official\r\ntrack has been shifted to the left of the previous forecast and lies\r\njust to the west of and a little slower than the consensus track\r\nmodel TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe large size of Fay, along with strong southeasterly to southerly\r\nvertical wind shear, should inhibit much in the way of\r\nintensification, despite the cyclone being over anomalously warm 29C\r\nsea-surface temperatures. If the recent trend in the development of\r\ninner-core convection continues, then Fay could transition into a\r\ntropical cyclone within the next 12 hours or so. However, this\r\ntransition would have virtually no effect on the size of the\r\ntropical-storm-force wind field. The NHC intensity forecast closely\r\nfollows a blend of the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS and LGEM.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 24.7N  64.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 28.5N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 31.7N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 33.7N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-10-10 23:30:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM FAY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n730 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014\r\n\r\nAs the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exited through\r\nan area of very deep convection in the northwestern quadrant of\r\nFay, they found a peak 5,000 ft flight-level wind of 75 kt and peak\r\nSFMR winds in the 50-55 kt range. Based on these data, this special\r\nadvisory is being issued to increase the initial intensity to 50\r\nkt, which could be a bit conservative. The aircraft also found that\r\nthe central pressure had fallen to 1000 mb on their last pass\r\nthrough the broad center. The intensity forecast has been adjusted\r\nupward through 36 hours, and shows the possibility for some\r\nadditional strengthening before gradual weakening begins after 24\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes and satellite imagery suggest that the initial\r\nmotion is 340/10, a bit to the right of the previous track. Based\r\non this, the 12-hour forecast position has been nudged a little to\r\nthe east, but no changes were made to the NHC track at 24 hours and\r\nbeyond.\r\n\r\nNote that this special advisory takes the place of the scheduled\r\n800 PM AST...0000 UTC...intermediate advisory. The next advisory\r\nissued on Fay will be the full advisory package at 1100 PM\r\nAST...0300 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2330Z 25.2N  64.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 26.0N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 28.5N  65.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 31.7N  63.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 33.7N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 10 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Fay features an area of deep convection\r\ndisplaced northwest of the low-level center by about 30 kt of\r\nsoutherly shear and a fractured convective band well east of the\r\ncenter. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on the earlier\r\naircraft data. Overall, the cloud pattern looks more tropical than\r\nit did a few hours ago, and Fay will likely transition to a\r\ntropical cyclone in the next 6 to 12 hours. Given that the shear is\r\nexpected to continue, only limited intensification is shown in\r\nthe next 12 to 24 hours, followed by slow weakening until the\r\ncyclone is absorbed after 48 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast\r\nis close to the latest IVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 345/11, as Fay continues to move\r\naround the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. There is no\r\nchange to the track forecast philosophy, with Fay expected to turn\r\nnorthward in the next 12 to 24 hours and then recurve into the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is a little to\r\nthe right of the previous one through 24 hours based on the initial\r\nposition and motion, and is largely an update of the previous\r\nforecast after that time. The NHC forecast is close to the latest\r\ndynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 25.9N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 27.7N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 30.8N  64.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 33.9N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 36.6N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014\r\n\r\nIt appears that Fay is gradually acquiring tropical characteristics\r\nas the convection becomes more symmetric and getting closer to the\r\ncenter, but it is not quite tropical yet.  There is a small window\r\nof opportunity for Fay to transition to a tropical cyclone during\r\nthe next 6 to 12 hours before the shear increases further. There\r\nis no data to change the winds at this time, and the initial\r\nintensity is kept at 50 kt. Another reconnaissance flight is\r\nscheduled for later this morning. Only a slight strengthening is\r\nanticipated before the system becomes absorbed by a strong cold\r\nfront in about 48 hours as indicated by most of the global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 355/10. Fay continues to move\r\naround the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, and is\r\nexpected to continue northward for 6 to 12 more hours. It should\r\nthen recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in\r\nforward speed. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\r\none, and follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 26.7N  64.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 29.1N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 32.2N  63.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 35.0N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 11 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Fay made the transition to a tropical cyclone around\r\n0600 UTC based on AMSU and other satellite data that arrived after\r\nthe previous advisory was released.  An Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft confirmed this transition had occurred, when\r\nit made a pass through the northwestern and northern quadrants\r\nindicating that the radius of maximum wind had decreased to about 40\r\nn mi. A blend of satellite intensity estimates, flight-level surface\r\nwind conversions, and reliable SFMR surface winds support increasing\r\nthe intensity to 60 kt. The latest center dropsonde data suggests a\r\ncentral pressure of about 991 mb.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 355/14. Other than the center\r\nredeveloping a little farther west and closer to the deep\r\nconvection, the overall track forecast and reasoning remains\r\nunchanged form the previous advisory. Fay is expected to continue to\r\nmove northward and then northeastward around the western periphery\r\nof a strong mid-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and then\r\nrecurve into the mid-latitude westerlies with an increase in\r\nforward speed by 36 hours. The official track forecast closely\r\nfollows the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe strength and direction of the current vertical wind shear is\r\nforecast to remain unchanged for the next 24 hours, so no change in\r\nintensity indicated during that time. By 36 hours, the shear is\r\nforecast to increase to more than 40 kt from the southwest, which\r\nshould induce a weakening trend until the cyclone is absorbed by a\r\nstrong cold front in about 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 27.9N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 30.1N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 33.0N  62.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 35.3N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Fay remains a sheared tropical cyclone with deep\r\nconvection persisting in the northwestern quadrant. A 1442 UTC\r\nASCAT-B overpass indicated several 50-52 kt surface wind vectors in\r\nthe northeastern and northwestern quadrants, and buoy 41936 measured\r\na pressure of 990.2 mb a few hours ago when the center passed just\r\nto its west. The initial intensity is being maintained at 60 kt for\r\nthis advisory given that the buoy pressure was similar to the last\r\nrecon reported surface pressure, and assuming that there is some\r\nundersampling by the ASCAT instrument. An Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the cyclone\r\naround 0000 UTC this evening.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 360/16 kt, based in large part on\r\nscatterometer and microwave satellite fixes. Fay is expected to\r\ncontinue moving northward around a deep-layer ridge this evening,\r\nand then turn toward the north-northeast by 0600 UTC, passing just\r\nto the southeast of Bermuda at that time. However, only a slight\r\ndeviation to the west of the forecast track would bring the center\r\nand core of strongest winds very close to or even over Bermuda, and\r\nfor that reason the Bermuda Weather Service has issued a hurricane\r\nwatch for the island. By 24 hours, Fay is expected to get caught up\r\nin the mid-latitude westerlies and recurve rapidly to the northeast\r\nor east-northeast before it merges with a frontal system by 48\r\nhours. The new NHC guidance has again shifted a little to the left,\r\nand the official forecast track has been shifted slightly westward\r\nthrough 12 hours, and closely follows the multi-model consensus\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nOverall, there is no significant change to the previous intensity\r\nforecast or reasoning. However, the current south-southeasterly\r\nvertical wind shear of 32 kt is forecast by the GFS-based SHIPS\r\nmodel to decrease to around 25 kt from the south-southwest in 12-18\r\nhours, which could allow for some slight strengthening during the\r\nconvective maximum period around 0600 UTC tonight, and it is\r\npossible that Fay could briefly reach hurricane status. After 24\r\nhours, the wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 40 kt\r\nfrom the southwest, which should induce a weakening trend up until\r\nthe time that Fay merges with a strong frontal system by 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 29.5N  65.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 31.7N  64.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 33.7N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 34.8N  56.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 11 2014\r\n\r\nFay's cloud pattern is that of a sheared cyclone, with deep\r\nconvection bursting west of the center and little in the way of\r\nbanding features. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\ninvestigating the cyclone this evening found peak flight-level winds\r\nof 79 kt at 5,000 ft, but these were in an area of limited deep\r\nconvection southeast of the center. Several SFMR winds of around 55\r\nkt in the convection support maintaining the initial intensity at 60\r\nkt for this advisory. The central pressure fell to 988 mb just\r\nbefore 0000 UTC, but ticked up to 989 mb on the final aircraft fix.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes indicate that Fay has turned to the east of due\r\nnorth, with an initial motion of 010/15. The cyclone should\r\ncontinue to accelerate northeastward and then east-northeastward\r\ninto the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 hours. The new\r\nNHC forecast track is close to the multi-model consensus and the\r\nprevious official forecast, taking the center of Fay just east of\r\nBermuda overnight tonight. This track will place the island in a\r\nregion with some of the strongest winds and deepest convection\r\nassociated with the storm.\r\n\r\nLittle change in intensity is expected during the next 12 to 24\r\nhours as Fay will continue to be embedded within a high shear\r\nenvironment. By 36 hours, Fay should be absorbed into a frontal\r\nsystem.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 30.9N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 32.7N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 34.6N  58.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe area of cold cloud tops associated with Fay has expanded\r\novernight, but radar imagery from Bermuda indicate that the\r\noverall convective structure of the cyclone has not changed much.\r\nSurface observations and the radar data show that the center of Fay\r\nhas passed over the island within the past hour.  Subsequently, a\r\nminimum pressure of 986 mb was reported at Bermuda airport observing\r\nstation.  The initial wind speed remains 60 kt and is based on the\r\nearlier aircraft and ASCAT data, and the 06z Dvorak classifications\r\nfrom SAB and TAFB. Little change in strength is expected during the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, Fay is expected to merge with\r\na frontal zone and become extratropical. The global models now keep\r\nthe post-tropical cyclone a distinct feature along the frontal zone\r\na little longer, so the new NHC forecast delays dissipation until\r\naround 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFay has not turned quite as sharp as predicted.  The initial motion\r\nestimate is north-northeastward or 015/17 kt.  Fay should turn\r\nnortheastward later this morning, and then accelerate\r\nnorth-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerly flow over the\r\nAtlantic tonight through Monday.  The updated NHC track is a little\r\nnorth of the previous track and near the middle of the tightly\r\nclustered guidance models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 32.4N  64.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 34.2N  61.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 35.8N  55.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 36.0N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Fay has become more symmetrical,\r\nand microwave data also reveal that the inner core structure is\r\nbetter than 12 hours ago, including the presence of a closed\r\nmid-level eye feature. I was tempted to classify the system as a\r\nhurricane, but the consensus of the Dvorak T-numbers still support\r\nan initial intensity of 60 kt. No significant change in strength is\r\nanticipated, but only a 5-kt increase in the winds will bring Fay to\r\nhurricane status.  A strong cold front is rapidly approaching the\r\ncyclone, and extratropical transition will most likely occur in\r\nabout 24 hours.\r\n\r\nFay has turned to the right as anticipated, and the best estimate of\r\nthe initial motion is toward the northeast or 055 degrees at 21 kt.\r\nFay should accelerate even further and turn more to the east while\r\nembedded in the fast mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is\r\nin the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the\r\nprevious forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 34.0N  62.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 35.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 36.0N  52.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 36.0N  46.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 34.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  15/1200Z...absorbed by a front\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fay","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014\r\n\r\nAfter 1200 UTC, subjective T-numbers from and TAFB and objective\r\nnumbers from the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS indicate that Fay\r\nhas reached hurricane status with an initial intensity of 65 kt.\r\nThis coincided with the presence of a closed mid-level eye feature\r\nin microwave imagery and a center surrounded by very deep\r\nconvection. Fay is the fifth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic\r\nhurricane season.\r\n\r\nGiven the strong shear and the expected interaction with a cold\r\nfront, Fay will probably weaken below hurricane status during the\r\nnext few hours and begin the expected extratropical transition.\r\n\r\nFay is already embedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies and is\r\nmoving toward the east-northwest or 070 degrees at 22 kt. Fay should\r\naccelerate even further and turn more to the east. The NHC forecast\r\nis in the middle of the guidance envelope, and is a blend of the\r\nprevious forecast and the Ocean Prediction Center input.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 34.7N  60.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 35.6N  56.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 36.0N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 35.0N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 33.5N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014\r\n\r\nFay's cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated in organization since\r\nthis afternoon due to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear.\r\nMicrowave and last-light visible satellite imagery indicate that the\r\nlow-level center has become exposed to the southwest of a large mass\r\nof very cold-topped convection. The same satellite data also\r\nindicate that the center has become increasingly deformed, making\r\nthe initial position more uncertain than normal.  This uncertainty\r\nhas resulted in a large scatter in Dvorak intensity estimates. The\r\ninitial intensity is lowered to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest\r\nDvorak estimate from SAB, which was closest to the estimated center\r\nposition.\r\n\r\nEven stronger west-southwesterly shear should affect Fay during the\r\nnext couple of days.  Meanwhile, much drier and more stable air\r\nbehind a cold front impinging on the storm from the northwest should\r\nbecome entrained within Fay's circulation.  The combination of these\r\nfactors should lead to additional steady weakening, with global\r\nmodels showing extratropical transition occurring in about 24 hours\r\n(or perhaps sooner). The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and in excellent agreement with the latest statistical-\r\ndynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe exposed center in the last few visible images was south of\r\nprevious estimates, and as a result the initial motion estimate is\r\nnow more sharply toward the east, or 080/21. Fay is expected to\r\ncontinue racing eastward or east-southeastward at the base of a\r\npotent shortwave trough moving through eastern Atlantic Canada and\r\nthe north Atlantic.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted toward\r\nthe right of the previous one, based primarily on the new center\r\nposition and motion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 34.1N  58.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 34.4N  53.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 33.9N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 33.4N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 33.0N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014\r\n\r\nA series of microwave images indicate that Fay has begun\r\nextratropical transition.  The cloud pattern has become quite\r\nasymmetric and the remaining central deep convection, situated well\r\nto the northeast of the center of circulation, is decreasing.  An\r\nearlier AMSU-B overpass showed significant erosion of the southern\r\nflank of Fay due to intruding cold, dry, low to mid-level air\r\nassociated with an approaching strong baroclinic frontal zone.\r\nFurthermore, the GFS model-forecast cyclone phase diagram shows Fay\r\ncompleting transition to an asymmetric cold core system in 12 hours\r\nor so.  A compromise of the objective and subjective satellite\r\nintensity estimates keeps the initial intensity at 55 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  Although the cyclone is expected to remain generally\r\nin warm water south of the Gulf Stream's north wall, strong,\r\npersistent, vertical shear is forecast to further weaken Fay through\r\nthe 72 hr period.  Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone should\r\ncontinue to decay and open up into a trough of low pressure within\r\nthe aforementioned frontal boundary and dissipate over the\r\nnortheastern Atlantic.  Based on a consensus of the global models,\r\nan adjustment to the length of the official forecast has been made,\r\nand it now postpones dissipation until day 4.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is gradually accelerating eastward and is now\r\nmoving at 23 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies.  Fay is\r\nforecast to slow a bit during the next 24 hours, in response to\r\ninteraction with the cold front, and track eastward to\r\neast-southeastward until dissipation.  The NHC forecast is close to\r\nthe TVCA multi-model consensus and the post-tropical cyclone\r\nforecast guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 34.3N  55.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 34.3N  51.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 33.7N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 32.7N  43.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 32.1N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 32.0N  32.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fay","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014\r\n\r\nFay is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone or even\r\ndissipating within a frontal zone. Satellite images and surface\r\nobservations indicate that a cold front is located just to the west\r\nof Fay, and cold air stratocumulus clouds are wrapping around the\r\nwestern side of the system.  In addition, deep convection is now\r\ndisplaced well to the northeast of what passes for a low-level\r\ncenter.  The Florida State University cyclone phase evolution\r\nanalyses indicate that Fay has a warm core, which is the reason why\r\nit is still designated as a tropical storm, but it won't be one for\r\nmuch longer.  The initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 50 kt,\r\nfollowing the decrease in the satellite intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving quickly eastward at about 25 kt as it is\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow.  Assuming it maintains a\r\nclosed circulation, a continued eastward motion at a slightly slower\r\nforward speed is expected.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 34.1N  52.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 33.7N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 32.9N  44.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 32.2N  40.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 31.8N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 32.0N  29.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Fay","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072014\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images and an ASCAT pass around 1300 UTC indicate\r\nthat the circulation of Fay has opened into a trough.  In addition,\r\nthe vorticity maximum associated with the remnants of this system\r\nare embedded within a frontal zone.  The initial wind speed is\r\nestimated to be 45 kt based on the ASCAT data.  The remnants of Fay\r\nare expected to move eastward or east-southeastward and weaken\r\nduring the next few days.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\r\nthis system.  For additional information on the remnants of Fay\r\nplease see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\r\nService...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 33.7N  49.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...DISSIPATED\r\n 12H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-10-12 17:30:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low\r\npressure system east of the Leeward islands found SFMR surface\r\nwinds of tropical storm force, and based on this information the\r\nlow has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gonzalo.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 kt. Due to a\r\nstrong ridge to the north of Gonzalo, the cyclone is expected to\r\nmove generally westward at around 10 kt for the next 24 hours or so,\r\nfollowed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest in the 36-72 hour\r\ntime frame. After that time, a deep-layer trough moving off of\r\nthe U.S. east coast is expected to erode the ridge, causing Gonzalo\r\nto move slowly northwestward to northward. The NHC track forecast\r\nclosely follows the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less\r\nthan 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady\r\nstrengthening throughout the forecast period. There will likely be\r\noccasional intrusions of dry mid-level air that may briefly slow\r\nthe intensification process, but those occurrences should generally\r\nbe short-lived. The intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS\r\nintensity model.\r\n\r\nNOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the\r\nNHC, but telecommunications problems are preventing the\r\ndissemination of these data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1730Z 16.4N  58.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 16.4N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 16.5N  61.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 17.2N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 18.2N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 20.5N  67.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 22.0N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 24.0N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo\r\nthis afternoon has found found 850-mb maximum flight-level winds of\r\n47 kt in the northeastern quadrant along with reliable SFMR surface\r\nwinds of 39-41 kt. The aircraft also measured a central pressure of\r\n1003-1004 mb and on-board radar indicated that a primitive eye with\r\na diameter of 10 n mi was developing. Based on these data, the\r\ninitial intensity has been increased to 40 kt, which could be a\r\nlittle conservative.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt based on reconnaissance\r\ndata. There is no significant change to the previous track forecast\r\nor reasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge to the north of Gonzalo\r\nshould keep the cyclone moving westward at around 10 kt for the next\r\n24 hours, followed by a gradual turn to the west-northwest by 36\r\nhours. By 72 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is expected to move\r\noff of the U.S. east coast and act to erode the ridge to the north\r\nof Hispaniola, allowing Gonzalo to move slowly northwestward to\r\nnorthward into the weakness in the ridge. The NHC model guidance is\r\nin general agreement on this developing track scenario, but there is\r\nconsiderable spread in the model tracks after 36 hours. The GFS and\r\nthe regional models keep Gonzalo weak until after 48 hours, and take\r\nthe system well to the east of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.\r\nIn contrast, the ECMWF and the UKMET show a vertically deep and more\r\nrobust tropical cyclone moving more westward in deep-layer easterly\r\nsteering flow. Since the official forecast calls for Gonzalo to\r\nbecome a hurricane within 48 hours, the NHC forecast track lies near\r\nthe extreme western edge of the model envelope and close to the more\r\nrobust ECMWF model solution.\r\n\r\nThe combination of the small size of Gonzalo, its precursor eye\r\nfeature, low vertical wind shear conditions, SSTs at least 29C, and\r\ncolder than normal upper-tropospheric temperatures support at least\r\na normal rate of intensification throughout the forecast period.\r\nAlthough occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air could briefly\r\ndisrupt the strengthening process, those occurrences should\r\ngenerally be short-lived due to the strong instability conditions\r\nthat will be present. In fact, rapid intensification is a very\r\ndistinct possibility, especially if the aforementioned eye feature\r\ncontinues to develop. The NHC intensity forecast is higher then the\r\nconsensus models and follows the a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nNOTE: Data from the reconnaissance aircraft has been received by the\r\nNHC, but telecommunications problems continue to prevent the\r\ndissemination of these data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 16.4N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 16.5N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 16.9N  63.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 17.9N  65.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 19.0N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 20.9N  67.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 22.6N  68.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 24.5N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe circulation of Gonzalo, which has shown some signs of inner-core\r\nfeatures, is apparent in radar imagery from Guadeloupe, but the\r\ncyclone's overall convective pattern is somewhat disorganized in\r\nsatellite imagery. A small area of central convection is noted near\r\nthe center, along with a rather linear convective band in the\r\neastern semicircle. Little deep convection is noted west of the\r\ncenter, perhaps due to westerly shear of around 10 kt and some dry\r\nair in the mid and upper levels seen in radiosonde data from St.\r\nMaarten. The initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier\r\naircraft data and a blend of the latest Dvorak data-T numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB. The SHIPS model shows the shear weakening in 12 to 18\r\nhours, and most of the intensity guidance shows Gonzalo reaching\r\nhurricane status in about 36 hours. Additional intensification is\r\nforecast after that time in a low-shear environment over warm\r\nwaters. The new NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the\r\nprevious one and is close to the IVCN consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/10, as Gonzalo is being steered\r\nby a mid-level ridge to its northeast. During the next 36 to 48\r\nhours, the cyclone will gradually turn northwestward as it moves\r\naround the western periphery of this ridge. Overall, the guidance\r\nenvelope has shifted a little to the right through the first 2 days,\r\nand the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction but lies\r\nsouth of the multi-model consensus and close to the ECMWF. After\r\nthat time, most of the guidance shows the cyclone turning northward\r\ninto a weakness in the ridge and then accelerating northeastward\r\nahead of a mid-latitude trough by day 5. There is still a large\r\namount of along-track spread at these time ranges, with the GFS,\r\nHWRF, GFDL, and GEFS ensemble mean showing a faster northeastward\r\nacceleration, and the slower ECMWF showing the trough missing\r\nGonzalo and leaving the cyclone moving slowly northeastward\r\nby the end of the period. At days 3 through 5, the NHC forecast is\r\nfaster and shows more of a northeastward motion compared to the\r\nprevious one, but is much slower than the GFS and south of the\r\nconsensus out of respect for the ECMWF model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.6N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.9N  61.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 17.7N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 18.8N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 20.0N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 22.5N  68.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 24.5N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 27.0N  66.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Gonzalo has gradually improved\r\novernight with increased banding features seen in both infrared\r\nsatellite images and Guadeloupe radar.  The small inner core has\r\nalso become a little better defined in the radar imagery.  Dvorak\r\ndata T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are 3.0 and 3.5, respectively, and\r\nthe initial wind speed has been increased to 50 kt. An Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the\r\ncyclone in a few hours, which should provide a better assessment of\r\nGonzalo's intensity and size.  Although some mid-level dry air is\r\nnoted to the west of the cyclone, low shear and warm water should\r\nfavor strengthening during the next several days.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast calls for steady intensification and Gonzalo is forecast to\r\nbecome a hurricane in 24 to 36 hours. The updated intensity forecast\r\nis close to the SHIPS model and is very similar to the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt.  Gonzalo is forecast to\r\nturn west-northwestward, then northwestward during the next day or\r\nso, while it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level\r\nridge over the central subtropical Atlantic.  Most of the track\r\nguidance has again shifted slightly eastward during the first 48\r\nhours, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that direction.\r\nThe NHC forecast is along the southern edge of the guidance envelope\r\nduring the first couple of days and is close to the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels.  After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn northward\r\nthen north-northeastward ahead of a deep-layer trough that\r\napproaches the east coast of the United States in about 4 days.\r\nAlthough the track guidance is in general agreement on this\r\nscenario, there remains large differences in the forward speed\r\nof the cyclone later in the period.  The GFS, UKMET, and HWRF\r\nshowing more north-northeastward acceleration than the ECMWF.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is near the GFS/ECMWF consensus, which\r\nis faster than the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 16.8N  60.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 17.4N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 18.6N  64.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 20.2N  65.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 21.5N  67.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 23.8N  68.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 26.0N  67.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 29.0N  65.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 13 2014\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Gonzalo\r\nthis morning found 850 mb maximum flight-level winds of 64 kt along\r\nwith reliable SFMR surface winds near 55 kt in the northeastern\r\nquadrant, plus a central pressure of 992 mb. In addition, the\r\nAntigua-Barbuda Meteorological Service recently reported a sustained\r\nwind of 58 kt and a gust to 76 kt. Based on these data, the\r\nintensity has been increased to 55 kt. Reports from the aircraft\r\nradar and Antigua-Barbuda also indicate the center of Gonzalo passed\r\nover Antigua between 1300-1400 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. Gonzalo is expected to\r\ncontinue to move west-northwestward today, and turn toward the\r\nnorthwest after 24 hours when the cyclone clears the northern Lesser\r\nAntilles. After that, the mid-level ridge to the north of Gonzalo is\r\nexpected to break down as a strong mid-latitude trough moving off of\r\nthe U.S. east and southeast coasts approaches the area north of\r\nPuerto Rico and Hispaniola in about 72 hours. The weakening ridge\r\nwill allow Gonzalo to move slowly northward, and then turn toward\r\nthe northeast and accelerate on Days 4 and 5. The latest NHC model\r\nguidance appears to have stabilized and has no longer made any\r\neastward shifts, so the official forecast track is just an update of\r\nthe previous advisory track, which lies close to a blend of the GFEX\r\nand TVCN consensus models.\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Gonzalo has continued to improve, and\r\nradar data from Guadeloupe indicates that a small but intense vortex\r\nmay have passed over Antigua earlier this morning. Overall, the\r\nimprovement in the horizontal and vertical structure of Gonzalo the\r\npast several hours, along with weak vertical wind shear and SSTs\r\ngreater than 29C, should allow for at least steady strengthening of\r\nthe cyclone through the next 96 hours. By 120 hours, southwesterly\r\nwind shear of around 20 kt is expected to affect Gonzalo, which\r\nshould induce a slow weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous forecast and the SHIPS intensity model.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is forecast to be reaching hurricane strength by the time it\r\npasses near the British Virgin Islands, and so a hurricane warning\r\nis in effect there.  Although hurricane conditions are not currently\r\nexpected in the U.S. Virgin Islands, only a slight deviation to the\r\nleft of the forecast track, or a more rapid strengthening of the\r\nstorm, would result in the need to extend the hurricane warning into\r\nthose areas. Interests in the hurricane watch area are reminded that\r\nthe watch means that hurricane conditions are possible...and in this\r\ncase within 24 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 17.2N  61.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 18.0N  63.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 19.4N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 20.8N  66.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 22.4N  67.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 24.8N  68.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 27.4N  66.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 31.7N  64.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014\r\n\r\nAnother Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating\r\nGonzalo this afternoon recently found 700-mb maximum flight-level\r\nwinds of 77 kt along with believable SFMR surface winds of 62-67 kt\r\nin the northeastern quadrant, plus a central pressure of 984 mb.\r\nBased on these data, the intensity has been increased to 65 kt,\r\nmaking Gonzalo the sixth hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane\r\nseason. Note that some higher SFMR winds were observed, but these\r\nwere believed to be contaminated by shallow-water shoaling.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. The center of Gonzalo has\r\nbeen developing northward on the Guadeloupe radar while the entire\r\ncirculation has been moving west-northwestward. The result is now\r\na northwestward motion, which is expected to continue for the next\r\n36 hours or so. After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to gradually\r\nturn northward as a break in the subtropical to its north develops\r\nby 48-72 hours. On days 4 and 5, the hurricane is forecast to\r\naccelerate to the northeast as the southwesterly flow ahead of\r\nfast-moving deep-layer trough and associated cold front that is\r\ncurrently located over the south-central United States. The models\r\nare in better agreement on this track scenario with only a minor\r\neastward shift noted through 36 hours. After that, however, the\r\nmodels have made a significant westward shift and now bring Gonzalo\r\nvery close to Bermuda in the 96-120 hour time period. The official\r\nforecast track lies close to a blend of the GFEX and TVCN consensus\r\nmodels through 48 hours, and is a little to the right of the\r\nconsensus models at 72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nBoth the radar and satellite presentations of Gonzalo continue to\r\nimprove, with a 20 n mi diameter eye noted in the radar data since\r\nabout 1400-1500 UTC. Gonzalo has been strengthening at a rate of\r\n20-25 kt since this time yesterday. Given that current environmental\r\nand oceanic conditions are expected to remain essentially unchanged\r\nfor the next 48 hours, a similar rate of strengthening is forecast\r\nduring that time, with Gonzalo forecast to become a major hurricane\r\nby 48 hours. After that, gradually increasing southwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer trough is expected\r\nto induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast remains\r\nabove the intensity consensus models, and closely follows the SHIPS\r\nintensity model.\r\n\r\nAlthough hurricane conditions are not currently expected in the U.S.\r\nVirgin Islands, only a slight deviation to the left of the forecast\r\ntrack, or a more rapid strengthening of the storm, would result in\r\nthe need to extend the hurricane warning into those areas. Interests\r\nin the hurricane watch area are reminded that the watch means that\r\nhurricane conditions are possible, and in this case within the\r\nnext 12-18 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 17.9N  62.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 18.8N  64.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 20.5N  65.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 22.2N  67.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 23.8N  68.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 26.3N  68.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 30.0N  66.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 35.0N  62.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014\r\n\r\nThe eye of Gonzalo moved just north of St. Maarten and over Anguilla\r\nearlier this evening. St. Maarten reported a peak 2-minute wind of\r\n55 kt and a gust of 65 kt with a minimum pressure of 994 mb. Data\r\nfrom the Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier indicated peak 700-mb\r\nflight-level winds of around 85 kt, which support an intensity of 75\r\nkt for this advisory. This intensity is also supported by the latest\r\nDvorak classification of T4.5 from TAFB. The next Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft will be investigating Gonzalo around 0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nGonzalo appears to be poised to intensify, perhaps rapidly, in the\r\nnext day or so. The inner-core features are quite distinct in\r\nrecent microwave imagery and a warm spot has recently developed in\r\ninfrared imagery with a more symmetric cloud pattern. Given these\r\ntrends and the overall favorable environment, the intensity\r\nforecast has been adjusted upward and is close to the the SHIPS\r\nmodel on the high end of the intensity guidance through the first 48\r\nhours, showing Gonzalo becoming a major hurricane in about 36 hours.\r\nAs Gonzalo gains latitude later in the period, southwesterly shear\r\nahead of a mid-latitude trough and cooler SSTs should result in\r\ngradual weakening.\r\n\r\nThe eye of Gonzalo is now evident in WSR-88D imagery from San Juan,\r\nand the initial motion estimate is 315/10. Overall, the track\r\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the hurricane will\r\nmove northwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge and\r\nthen accelerate northward and northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude\r\ntrough moving off the east coast of the United States. The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast has been shifted a little to the right in the first\r\n48 hours due to the initial position and motion and an adjustment\r\nand toward the latest multi-model consensus. Beyond that time, the\r\nnew NHC forecast is largely and update of the previous one and is\r\nclose to but a bit slower than a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models,\r\nespecially by day 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 18.7N  63.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 19.8N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 21.5N  66.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 23.1N  67.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 24.5N  68.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 27.3N  67.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 31.5N  65.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 37.0N  61.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014\r\n\r\nAir Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that Gonzalo\r\nhas continued to quickly strengthen overnight while the eye has\r\npassed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands.  The aircraft\r\nmeasured a peak flight-level wind of 116 kt in the northeastern\r\neyewall and SFMR surface winds of 92 kt. A blend of these data yield\r\nan initial intensity of 95 kt for this advisory.  The SHIPS model\r\nand a UW-CIMSS shear analysis show about 15 to 20 kt of south-\r\nsouthwesterly shear over Gonzalo, which may be why the eye has not\r\nbecome apparent in infrared imagery.  The shear is forecast to\r\ndecrease and remain low during the next few days while the hurricane\r\nmoves over warm water. This should allow for additional\r\nstrengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours. Eyewall cycles are\r\nlikely to cause some fluctuations in intensity after that time. In\r\nabout 3 days, gradual weakening is predicted to begin as Gonzalo\r\nwill be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures\r\nand into an area of increasing southwesterly shear.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance, and is a little\r\nhigher than the previous advisory through 72 hours due to the\r\nhigher initial intensity.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is moving northwestward or 315/11 kt.  The hurricane is\r\nexpected to remain on a northwestward heading during the next 24 to\r\n36 hours.  After that time, Gonzalo should turn northward, then\r\nnorth-northeastward ahead a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to\r\nmove off the east coast of the United States in 2 to 3 days. Late\r\nin the period, the hurricane should accelerate northeastward in\r\ndeep layer southwesterly flow over the North Atlantic.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there remains\r\nsome spread in the forward speed of the hurricane after 72 hours.\r\nThe new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and\r\nis close to the GFEX and TVCA consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 19.6N  64.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 21.0N  65.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 22.7N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 24.1N  68.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 28.9N  67.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 34.5N  64.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 43.5N  56.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2014\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the San\r\nJuan Doppler weather radar indicate that the earlier intensification\r\nprocess has abated, which is apparently due to some shear-induced\r\ndisruption of the eye. Maximum 700 mb flight-level winds observed\r\nthus far are 112 kt and maximum SFMR winds through most of the\r\nmorning have been around 93 kt. The central pressure has also\r\nleveled off during the past few hours at around 973 mb. A blend of\r\nthe flight-level surface-wind conversion and SFMR winds support\r\nmaintaining an intensity of 95 kt.\r\n\r\nGonzalo continues to move northwestward with a motion of 315/11 kt.\r\nThere is no significant change to the previous forecast track or\r\nreasoning. The NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on the\r\nhurricane continuing to move northwestward around the southwestern\r\nfor periphery of a deep-layer ridge the during the next 36 hours.\r\nAfter that, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken\r\nas a strong mid-latitude trough and associated cold front currently\r\nlocated over the southeastern U.S. moves eastward across the Bahamas\r\nby 48 hours. The increasing southwesterly flow ahead of those\r\nsystems should gradually accelerate Gonzalo toward the northeast,\r\nwith the cyclone potentially threatening Bermuda in about three\r\ndays' time. Gonzalo is expected to merge with the strong cold front\r\nor become extratropical by 120 hours. The new track forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of\r\nthe GFEX and TVCA consensus models.\r\n\r\nRecent radar and satellite data indicate that the eye of Gonzalo has\r\nbeen clearing out and gradually becoming better defined with a\r\ndiameter of about 20 nmi. Once the eyewall stabilizes again,\r\nintensification will likely resume, and in fact the reconnaissance\r\naircraft a few moments ago observed an SFMR wind of 99 kt that\r\nsuggests this intensification is beginning.  Buoy data indicate that\r\nwater temperatures are slightly cooler than what the SHIPS model is\r\nindicating, probably due to cold upwelling created by the wake of\r\nformer Hurricane Fay, but they are still sufficiently warm enough to\r\nsupport a category 4 hurricane. The best vertical shear conditions\r\nand upper-level outflow regime are expected to occur on Wednesday\r\nand into Thursday morning, and that is when Gonzalo is expected to\r\nstrengthen into a category 4 hurricane.  Afterwards, eyewall cycles\r\nand possible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to\r\ncause some fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing\r\nsouthwesterly wind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep trough and\r\nstrong cold front is expected to induce weakening. By 120 hours,\r\nGonzalo should be over cold waters of the North Atlantic and\r\nexperiencing vertical shear of more than 50 kt, which should result\r\nin the cyclone becoming a extratropical low. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above all of the\r\navailable intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 20.3N  65.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 21.7N  66.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 23.3N  67.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 24.6N  68.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 26.1N  68.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 30.4N  66.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 37.4N  62.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 46.8N  53.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier\r\ntoday indicated flight-level and SFMR wind data that were just below\r\nthe threshold of a major hurricane. On the last flight leg, the\r\naircraft measured a central pressure of 971 mb, which was down 2 mb\r\nfrom what was measured at the start of the mission. The eye had also\r\ncontracted from a 20 nmi diameter down to about 16 nmi on the last\r\nreport. Recent data from the NOAA Doppler radar in San Juan indicate\r\nthat the eye has contracted to about 15 nmi at an altitude of about\r\n36,000 ft since the aircraft departed a few hours ago, signifying\r\nthat the eye diameter is likely smaller at lower altitudes. In\r\naddition, satellite imagery indicates that the eye has cleared out\r\nand warmed while cloud tops have cooled significantly in the\r\nsurrounding eyewall. Based on the trends noted in the radar and\r\nsatellite data, the intensity has been increased to 100 kt, which is\r\nsupported by a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T5.4/100 kt.\r\n\r\nGonzalo continues to move steadily northwestward with a motion of\r\n320/11 kt. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed and remains is\r\nin excellent agreement on Gonzalo moving steadily northwestward\r\naround the periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north\r\nduring the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours, a deep mid-tropospheric\r\ntrough and cold front are expected to move eastward across the\r\nBahamas and weaken the western portion of the ridge. This should\r\nallow the cyclone to turn slowly northward, and then accelerate\r\nnortheastward by 72 hours ahead of the aforementioned trough and\r\nfront, with the hurricane potentially threatening Bermuda on Day 3.\r\nGonzalo is expected to merge with the cold front or become\r\nextratropical by 120 hours. The new track forecast is just an update\r\nof the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the\r\nGFEX and TVCA consensus models.\r\n\r\nWith the eye of Gonzalo having contracted and become more distinct\r\nin satellite, radar, and recon wind data, the system appears primed\r\nfor intensification into a category 4 hurricane later tonight or\r\non Wednesday. Sea-surface temperatures ahead of the cyclone are\r\nsufficiently warm enough at 28C-28.5C to support a category 4\r\nhurricane through at least the next 36 hours. The global models\r\ncontinue to indicate that the best vertical shear conditions and 200\r\nmb upper-level outflow pattern are expected to occur on Wednesday\r\nand continue into Thursday morning. Afterwards, eyewall cycles and\r\npossible cold upwelling beneath the hurricane are likely to cause\r\nsome fluctuations in the intensity. By 72 hours, increasing vertical\r\nwind shear ahead of the aforementioned deep trough is expected to\r\ninduce weakening. By 120 hours, Gonzalo will be over sub-20C SSTs in\r\nthe North Atlantic and experiencing vertical shear of 50-60 kt,\r\nwhich should result in the cyclone becoming an extratropical low.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and\r\nremains above all of the available intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 21.2N  66.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 22.5N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 24.0N  68.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 25.4N  68.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 27.2N  68.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 32.0N  65.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 39.9N  60.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 49.0N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft\r\nindicate that Gonzalo has continued to strengthen.  The plane\r\nreported maximum flight-level of 125 kt in the northeastern\r\nquadrant and peak SFMR winds of 108 kt. The minimum surface pressure\r\nalso has fallen about 17 mb during the last 9 hours to 954 mb.\r\nSatellite images show that the eye has warmed and shrunk to a\r\ndiameter of 8 n mi while the inner core has generally become better\r\ndefined. However, Gonzalo has been maintaining an asymmetric\r\ndistribution of convection, presumably due to around 15 kt of\r\nsouth-southwesterly shear of affecting the cyclone according to the\r\nlatest SHIPS and UW-CIMSS shear analyses. A blend of the flight-\r\nlevel and SFMR wind data is used to raise the initial intensity of\r\n110 kt.\r\n\r\nWater vapor imagery and cloud-tracked wind vectors show an upper-\r\nlevel trough between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. responsible\r\nfor the south-southwesterly shear over Gonzalo, but the shear should\r\nnot be enough to prevent additional intensification from taking\r\nplace over warm waters of 28-29 deg C during the next day or so.\r\nAt some point during this time, fluctuations in strength due to\r\ndifficult-to-forecast inner core evolution are probable. By 72\r\nhours, a significant increase in south-southwesterly shear should\r\ninduce a considerable weakening trend. Increasing baroclinicity in\r\nthe near-storm environment, much cooler waters, and drier and more\r\nstable air wrapping around the hurricane's circulation should result\r\nin extratropical transition by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nabout the same as the previous one, and is near or higher than the\r\nhighest intensity guidance (SHIPS/LGEM) through 36 hours but close\r\nto the multi-model consensus after that.\r\n\r\nGonzalo has continued to move on a northwestward course, or 320/11,\r\nthough the center has wobbled a bit toward the left during the\r\nlast couple of hours.  The hurricane should gradually turn north-\r\nnorthwestward and then northward and slow down as it moves around\r\nthe western periphery of an eastward-shifting central Atlantic ridge\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours.  By 48 hours, Gonzalo should\r\nencounter a deep-layer south-southwesterly flow associated with a\r\npotent mid-latitude trough swinging out of the east-central United\r\nStates. This flow pattern should turn Gonzalo north-northeastward\r\nwith increasing forward speed.  Although the track guidance is\r\ntightly clustered through 72 hours, there is still some along-track\r\nspread in the model solutions, with the ECMWF depicting a weaker and\r\nmuch-slower-moving cyclone.  The new NHC forecast places less weight\r\non the ECMWF, owing to Gonzalo's current intensity. The official NHC\r\nforecast lies on the far eastern side of the guidance envelope and\r\nto the right of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 22.2N  66.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 23.4N  67.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 24.9N  68.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 26.3N  68.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 28.5N  67.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 34.7N  64.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 45.1N  56.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/0000Z 52.5N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014\r\n\r\nThe small eye of Gonzalo has become a little less distinct in\r\ninfrared satellite imagery overnight.  It is possible that an eye\r\nwall replacement has begun, but there has been no recent microwave\r\nimages to assess the current structure of the inner core.  There\r\nhas been little change in the subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates overnight and the initial wind speed\r\nremains 110 kt for this advisory.  Another Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft is en route to the hurricane, which should\r\nprovide a better assessment of the intensity of Gonzalo this\r\nmorning.\r\n\r\nA UW/CIMSS shear analysis and the SHIPS model indicate that there is\r\nstill some light to moderate southerly shear over the hurricane, but\r\nthe shear is expected to decrease today.  This favors\r\nintensification, however difficult-to-predict eye wall replacement\r\ncycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity during the next\r\nday or two.  The NHC forecast calls for some slight intensification\r\ntoday followed by little change in strength in 24 to 48 hours.\r\nAfter that time, increasing southwesterly shear, drier air, and\r\ncooler sea surface temperatures should cause weakening.  Gonzalo is\r\nexpected to become extratropical by day 4, and the global models\r\nindicate that it will remain a powerful extratropical low through\r\nthe end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is moving northwestward or 320/11 kt.  The forecast track\r\nreasoning remains unchanged.  The hurricane should turn north-\r\nnorthwestward and northward during the next day or so as it moves\r\naround the western side of a mid-level ridge over the central\r\nAtlantic.  After that time, Gonzalo is forecast to turn\r\nnorth-northeastward and accelerate ahead of a mid-latitude trough\r\nthat will be moving off the east coast of the United States.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in excellent agreement on this scenario, however\r\nthe updated NHC forecast has been shifted a little west of\r\nthe previous advisory to be closer to the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 22.9N  67.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 24.0N  68.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 25.5N  68.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 27.3N  68.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 29.9N  67.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 37.5N  62.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 48.5N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/0600Z 54.0N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 15 2014\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that\r\nGonzalo has strengthened a little. The maximum 700 mb flight-level\r\nwind reported was 123 kt and the highest SFMR wind observation was\r\n116 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased to\r\n115 kt, making Gonzalo a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\r\nHurricane Wind Scale.  This is the first category 4 hurricane in the\r\nAtlantic basin since Ophelia in 2011.  The aircraft data and\r\nmicrowave images clearly show concentric eyewalls, with the\r\ninner radius of maximum wind now only about 4-5 n mi from the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\nSmoothing through the trochoidal oscillation of the eye yields an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 320/10 kt.  A high amplitude trough over\r\nthe eastern United States is expected to slowly move eastward during\r\nthe next couple of days, and will erode the subtropical ridge that\r\nis currently steering Gonzalo.  This change in the large-scale\r\npattern should cause the hurricane to turn northward by early\r\nThursday and north-northeastward Thursday night and Friday, likely\r\nbringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days.  Beyond 48 hours, the\r\nhurricane is forecast to accelerate generally northeastward.  The\r\ntrack model guidance remains tightly clustered, and the official\r\nforecast is near the GFS and ECMWF solutions and only slightly to\r\nthe left of the previous one.\r\n\r\nGiven the evidence of concentric eyewalls, and with the inner\r\neyewall already about as small as it can get, the current period of\r\nintensification could be about over.  The hurricane will likely\r\nfluctuate in strength while the environmental conditions remain\r\nfavorable during the next day or two.  After that time, weakening\r\nis forecast when the hurricane moves into an atmosphere of\r\nincreasing southwesterly shear and drier air, and over much colder\r\nwater.  Post-tropical transition will likely occur in 3 to 4 days\r\nwhen the cyclone is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf\r\nStream current.  Little change was made to the previous intensity\r\nforecast, and this one lies near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 23.5N  68.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 24.6N  68.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 26.3N  68.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 28.6N  68.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 31.6N  66.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 40.6N  60.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 50.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014\r\n\r\nGonzalo is not quite as well organized as it was this morning.\r\nSatellite images show that the eye of the hurricane appears less\r\ndistinct than it was earlier today, and radar images from a NOAA\r\nhurricane hunter aircraft earlier today suggested than the inner\r\neyewall could be eroding.  The initial wind speed is lowered\r\nto 110 kt based on the slightly degraded appearance of the\r\nstorm.  Another Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to\r\ninvestigate Gonzalo this evening and should provide a better\r\nassessment of its intensity and structure.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane remains on track and is moving northwestward at about\r\n9 kt.  Water vapor images show a large trough over the eastern\r\nUnited States.  This trough is expected to move eastward during the\r\nnext couple of days, which should cause Gonzalo to make a turn\r\ntoward the north on Thursday and north-northeast on Friday, likely\r\nbringing Gonzalo near Bermuda in about 2 days.  After that time, a\r\nfaster northeastward and then east-northeastward motion is\r\npredicted over the North Atlantic Ocean.  The track model guidance,\r\nin general, is a little slower than it was at 1200 UTC and the\r\nofficial forecast has been adjusted accordingly.  The guidance is\r\nalso not quite as tightly clustered as it has been, as the ECMWF\r\nhas shifted a bit west of the rest of the primary objective aids.\r\n\r\nThe large scale environmental conditions are expected to remain\r\nfavorable during the next day or so, and the intensity of Gonzalo\r\nwill likely fluctuate due to eyewall replacement cycles.  In\r\nabout 48 hours, the hurricane is expected to be moving into an\r\natmosphere of increasing southwesterly shear and drier air, and over\r\nsharply colder waters.  These conditions should cause weakening and\r\npost-tropical transition in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nNOAA buoy 41046 recently reported a pressure of 955 mb, and was\r\nquite useful in estimating Gonzalo's minimum pressure.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 24.1N  68.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 25.3N  68.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 27.2N  68.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 29.7N  67.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 32.9N  65.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 41.8N  58.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 51.0N  42.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/1800Z 54.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 15 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough satellite images have recently shown increased\r\norganization, aircraft data suggest that Gonzalo has actually\r\nslightly weakened.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nmeasured peak flight-level winds of 118 kt and a peak SFMR value of\r\n99 kt.  These data support an initial intensity of 105 kt.\r\n\r\nThe plane did report that the concentric eyewall cycle has finished,\r\nsuggesting that the weakening trend is probably over.  Little\r\nchange in strength is shown for the next 24 hours since the shear\r\nexpected to be weak or moderate while the hurricane traverses warm\r\nwaters. Gradual weakening is shown after that time due to the\r\ncyclone moving across cooler waters, some of which were upwelled by\r\nthe recent passage of Fay near Bermuda.  The official NHC forecast\r\nis a little lower than the previous one, although is on the higher\r\nside of the guidance during the first 36 hours.  Transition to a\r\npost-tropical cyclone is expected in about 72 hours with most of\r\nthe models showing Gonzalo becoming a large warm-seclusion low.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is turning northward as it feels the effects of a strong\r\ntrough over the eastern United States.  There is good agreement on\r\nthe cyclone moving toward the north-northeast tomorrow and northeast\r\non Friday, accelerating as it is steered by the trough.  The NHC\r\nforecast virtually unchanged over the first couple of days of the\r\nprediction, with most of the models showing Gonzalo near Bermuda in\r\na little over 36 hours.  At longer range, the extratropical cyclone\r\nshould move more to the east-northeast as it moves within the fast\r\nmid-latitude flow to the north of a central Atlantic ridge.  Only\r\nsmall changes were made to the previous forecast, which ends up\r\nbeing slightly slower at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 24.6N  68.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 25.8N  68.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 28.1N  68.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 30.7N  66.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 33.8N  64.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 43.8N  57.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 52.0N  37.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/0000Z 55.0N  17.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Gonzalo has improved during the past\r\nfew hours, with the eye warming and becoming more distinct since\r\nthe last advisory. The 0600 UTC Dvorak estimate from TAFB was\r\nT6.0/115 kt and the 0715 UTC ADT was T6.2/120 kt. The initial\r\nintensity is set to 120 kt for this advisory based on the improving\r\nsatellite appearance. The next Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be\r\ninvestigating Gonzalo around 1200 UTC to provide more information on\r\nthe storm's intensity.\r\n\r\nGiven the recent satellite trends, it seems that Gonzalo has\r\ncompleted the earlier eyewall replacement cycle. Some additional\r\nfluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 hours\r\nwhile Gonzalo remains over SSTs around 29C. Gradual weakening is\r\nforecast through 36 hours while SSTs slowly cool along the\r\ntrack and the shear begins to increase, and Gonzalo is expected to\r\nremain a dangerous hurricane as it passes near Bermuda on Friday.\r\nAfter 36 hours, faster weakening is shown as Gonzalo becomes\r\npost-tropical and then gradually decays as an extratropical cyclone\r\nlate in the period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above\r\nmost of the guidance in the short term and then trends toward the\r\nLGEM model while Gonzalo remains a tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 360/08, as Gonzalo is moving\r\nnorthward to the west of a subtropical ridge. The model guidance is\r\nin very good agreement on the track forecast scenario, with Gonzalo\r\nexpected to recurve ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving off the\r\neast coast of North America. The guidance this cycle has trended a\r\nlittle to the right through 48 hours and the NHC track has been\r\nadjusted 20-30 miles in that direction. This forecast is now a\r\nlittle to the left of the multi-model consensus and brings the\r\ncenter of Gonzalo very close to Bermuda in about 36 hours. Late in\r\nthe period, post-tropical Gonzalo is expected to pass south of\r\nNewfoundland and then accelerate northeastward and eastward across\r\nthe north Atlantic. At days 3 through 5, the new NHC forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 25.3N  68.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 26.8N  68.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 29.2N  67.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 31.9N  65.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 35.3N  63.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 45.5N  53.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 52.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/0600Z 55.0N  10.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 16 2014\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Gonzalo measured an\r\nSFMR surface wind of 135 kt, but this observation was not supported\r\nby the flight-level winds, which were only as high as 126 kt\r\nin the northeastern quadrant, or SFMR data in subsequent passes in\r\nthat portion of the storm. The initial intensity is raised to 125 kt\r\non this advisory based on a compromise between the flight-level and\r\nSFMR data, as well as satellite intensity estimates that range from\r\nT5.5/102 kt from SAB and T6.6/130 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nFluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 hours\r\nwhile Gonzalo remains in a relatively light-shear environment and\r\nover warm sea surface temperatures.  Some weakening is anticipated\r\non Friday once the vertical shear begins to increase, but Gonzalo is\r\nnot forecast to reach sub-26C water until about 48 hours.\r\nTherefore, the hurricane is expected to maintain major\r\nhurricane strength through the next 36 hours or so while it passes\r\nBermuda, with more rapid weakening forecast after 48 hours.  The\r\nofficial forecast is a little higher than the previous one during\r\nthe first 48 hours to account for the updated initial intensity.\r\nThis forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance for the next\r\n24 hours and then close to the intensity consensus thereafter.\r\nGonzalo is still forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone by day 3\r\nwhile it passes near Newfoundland, and at that point it\r\nshould also be very close to taking on frontal characteristics.\r\nGonzalo should dissipate by day 5 while it moves eastward over the\r\nnorth Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 005/6 kt.  Gonzalo is moving a little slower\r\nthan was previously forecast, which is having some downstream\r\neffects on the track forecast.  There is very little cross-track\r\nspread among the model guidance, but nearly all of the track models\r\nare slower than the previous forecast.  Gonzalo is moving northward\r\nto the east of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States,\r\nand the hurricane should begin to accelerate north-northeastward\r\nahead of this trough from this point forward.  Since this\r\nacceleration is somewhat delayed, the updated NHC track forecast is\r\na little slower than the previous one, and lies close to TVCA\r\nand a GFS-ECMWF blend.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 26.1N  68.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 27.5N  68.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 29.9N  66.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 32.6N  64.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 36.5N  62.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 46.5N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 52.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014\r\n\r\nRecent microwave data indicate that Gonzalo has a concentric\r\neyewall structure, with a small open inner ring of convection\r\nsurrounded by a larger closed ring.  The satellite presentation has\r\nnot changed appreciably since this morning, and the CI estimate from\r\nthe UW-CIMSS ADT supports maintaining the initial intensity at 125\r\nkt.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to\r\ninvestigate Gonzalo later this evening and should give us a better\r\nhandle on the hurricane's current intensity.\r\n\r\nLight westerly shear has been affecting Gonzalo, but it hasn't been\r\nenough to disrupt the hurricane's structure.  Vertical shear is\r\nforecast to increase slightly during the next 12-24 hours, and then\r\nincrease substantially after 48 hours.  Also, sea surface\r\ntemperatures along Gonzalo's forecast path are expected to be at\r\nleast 26C for the next 48 hours.  Therefore, only gradual weakening\r\nis anticipated during the next couple of days while Gonzalo moves\r\nnear Bermuda.  More rapid weakening should occur after 48 hours\r\nonce Gonzalo moves north of the Gulf Stream and is affected by\r\n40-50 kt of westerly shear.  The NHC intensity forecast closely\r\nfollows the intensity consensus ICON, and no significant changes\r\nwere required to the previous forecast.  The global models indicate\r\nthat Gonzalo will likely become extratropical by 72 hours, and that\r\nis now indicated in the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nGonzalo has turned north-northeastward and begun to accelerate with\r\nan initial motion estimate of 015/8 kt.  The hurricane is entering\r\nthe flow ahead of a deep-layer trough located over the eastern\r\nUnited States, and this pattern is expected to cause Gonzalo to\r\naccelerate further toward the north-northeast during the next 48\r\nhours.  After 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to turn\r\nnortheastward and east-northeastward over the north Atlantic.  The\r\ntrack guidance is tightly clustered for much of the forecast\r\nperiod.  However, the new models are again a little slower than the\r\nprevious forecast, and they have shifted northwestward between 48-72\r\nhours.  The updated NHC track forecast has also been shifted\r\nnorthwestward during that time toward the TVCA model consensus.\r\n\r\nSignificant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo\r\ncontinues on the current NHC forecast track.  Although specific\r\namounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an\r\nestimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a\r\nmajor hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with\r\nGonzalo.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 27.1N  68.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 28.7N  67.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 31.1N  65.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 34.3N  64.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 39.0N  60.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 50.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 55.0N  21.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 PM AST THU OCT 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe latest hurricane hunter mission into Gonzalo found peak\r\nflight-level winds of 136 kt, with SFMR values of 107 kt.  A blend\r\nof these winds gives a surface wind speed estimate of about 120 kt\r\nfor the current intensity, a bit lower than before.  This slight\r\nweakening is also suggested by the latest satellite pictures, which\r\nshow that the eye has become less distinct.\r\n\r\nNo significant change in strength is forecast for the next 12\r\nhours while Gonzalo remains over warm water with little shear,\r\nalthough some fluctuations are possible due to internal eyewall\r\ncycle dynamics.  A more steady weakening is expected by late\r\ntomorrow since the hurricane will be moving over substantially\r\ncooler SSTs.  However, any weakening is probably too late to spare\r\nBermuda, with almost all of the guidance showing the system as a\r\nmajor hurricane as it moves nearby.  In 36-48 hours, shear is\r\nforecast to increase dramatically which should continue the\r\nweakening process, and start extratropical transition over cold\r\nwaters.  The NHC forecast is about the same as the previous\r\ninterpolated forecast, and follows the trend of the intensity\r\nconsensus. Extratropical transition is still shown at day 3,\r\nalthough it could be close to losing tropical characteristics\r\njust after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving at\r\nabout 12 kt.  Global models are in good agreement on the hurricane\r\nentering the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough over the eastern\r\nUnited States, and this pattern is expected to cause Gonzalo to\r\naccelerate further toward the north-northeast during the next 48\r\nhours. All of the reliable guidance show Gonzalo passing over or\r\nwithin 30 nm to the west of the island, and little change has been\r\nmade to the forecast track through 2 days.  Gonzalo should race\r\nnortheastward and east-northeastward as an extratropical cyclone\r\nover the far north Atlantic.\r\n\r\nSignificant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo\r\ncontinues on the current NHC forecast track.  Although specific\r\namounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an\r\nestimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a\r\nmajor hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with\r\nGonzalo.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 28.0N  67.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 29.7N  66.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 32.5N  64.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 36.4N  62.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 42.0N  57.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 56.5N  12.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014\r\n\r\nGonzalo appears to be slowly filling. Satellite imagery shows a net\r\ndegradation in the organization of the cloud pattern over the last\r\n6 to 12 hours, with somewhat warmer cloud top temperatures within\r\nthe central dense overcast and some erosion of deep convection over\r\nthe western semicircle of the circulation. Satellite data suggest\r\nalso that current eyewall replacement is nearly complete, with the\r\nlast vestiges of the inner eyewall dissipating within a larger 30\r\nn mi diameter eye. The initial intensity has been lowered to 115\r\nkt, which is just a bit above the latest ADT estimate of 110 kt.\r\nThe next reconnaissance aircraft should arrive around 1200 UTC to\r\nbetter assess Gonzalo's intensity and structure.\r\n\r\nWith Gonzalo encountering slowly increasing shear and over\r\nsomewhat cooler waters, only gradual weakening is expected\r\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours.  Regardless, Gonzalo should remain a\r\ndangerous hurricane as it passes Bermuda later today. After 24\r\nhours, a steady increase in south-southwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nand sharply lower sea surface temperatures should contribute to a\r\nmarkedly faster weakening. Gonzalo is likely to transition into a\r\npost-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and become extratropical in 60-72\r\nhours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one,\r\nand is about halfway between the multi-model consensus and the\r\nSHIPS model through 24 hours and near the multi-model consensus\r\nafter that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 025/13, slightly faster than before.\r\nGonzalo should accelerate further on roughly the same heading\r\nduring the next couple of days as the hurricane is swept up in the\r\nsouth-southwesterly flow ahead of a deep-layer trough currently over\r\nthe eastern United States. A turn toward the east-northeast and\r\neast with an additional increase in forward speed is then forecast\r\nwhen Gonzalo nears Newfoundland in about 48 hours. The new NHC track\r\nforecast is along the previous one but a bit slower to account for\r\na slower trend in much of the track model guidance.\r\n\r\nSignificant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo\r\ncontinues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific\r\namounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an\r\nestimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a\r\nmajor hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with\r\nGonzalo.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 29.3N  66.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 31.3N  65.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 34.5N  63.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 38.9N  60.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 44.5N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 54.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 56.6N   6.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nGonzalo is under surveillance by a NOAA hurricane hunter plane and\r\nits eye is in the scope of the Bermuda radar.  Maximum winds\r\nmeasured so far by the SFMR on board the plane are 104 kt, and on\r\nthis basis the initial intensity is lowered to 110 kt. This slight\r\nweakening is in agreement with the fact that the eye on satellite is\r\nnot as distinct as it was 12 hours ago, and the Dvorak t-numbers are\r\ndecreasing.\r\n\r\nAlthough it appears that a gradual weakening has begun, Gonzalo is\r\nexpected to be a dangerous Category 3 hurricane as it\r\nmoves near or over Bermuda later today. After that time, increasing\r\nshear and cooler waters along the track of the hurricane should\r\nresult in a faster weakening.  Gonzalo is likely to transition\r\ninto a post-tropical cyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or\r\nsouth of Newfoundland, and become fully extratropical thereafter.\r\n\r\nRadar and aircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving\r\ntoward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should\r\naccelerate and turn to the northeast once it becomes completely\r\nembedded within the faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of\r\na deepening trough along the east coast of the United States. The\r\nguidance remains tightly clustered, and\r\nThere is no reason to deviate much from the previous NHC forecast\r\nwhich shows a powerful hurricane passing near or over Bermuda\r\nlater today, and a post-tropical cyclone passing south of\r\nNewfoundland in about 36 to 48 hours.\r\n\r\nSignificant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely if Gonzalo\r\ncontinues on the current NHC forecast track. Although specific\r\namounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an\r\nestimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a\r\nmajor hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with\r\nGonzalo.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 30.4N  66.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 32.6N  64.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 36.3N  62.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 41.5N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 48.0N  49.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 55.0N  25.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/1200Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014\r\n\r\nAnother reconnaissance plane has been in and around the eye of\r\nGonzalo and found no significant change in the structure of the\r\nhurricane. Maximum flight-level winds were 124 kt, but the highest\r\nSFMR wind was 88 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is\r\nestimated to be 100 kt. The minimum central pressure remains around\r\n949 mb. Although there has been a slight decrease in the surface\r\nwinds, no significant change in intensity is expected before the eye\r\ncrosses Bermuda in a few hours. Due to the large observed\r\ndifferential between the winds at the surface and aloft, a higher\r\nthan normal gust factor has been used in this advisory.\r\n\r\nAfter Gonzalo passes Bermuda, increasing shear and cooler waters\r\nalong the track of the hurricane should result in a faster\r\nweakening.  Gonzalo is likely to transition into a post-tropical\r\ncyclone by 36 to 48 hours as it moves near or south of Newfoundland.\r\nThis is the consensus of most of the global models.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving toward the\r\nnorth-northeast or 025 degrees at 14 kt. Gonzalo should accelerate\r\nand turn to the northeast once it becomes completely embedded within\r\nthe faster southwesterly mid-latitude flow ahead of a deepening\r\ntrough along the east coast of the United States. There has been no\r\nchange in the guidance, and the NHC forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nSignificant coastal flooding on Bermuda is likely. Although specific\r\namounts cannot be forecast for Gonzalo, Hurricane Fabian produced an\r\nestimated 10 feet of storm surge when it moved over Bermuda as a\r\nmajor hurricane in 2003, and similar values could occur with\r\nGonzalo.\r\n\r\nGiven the proximity of this dangerous hurricane to Bermuda, NHC will\r\nprovide hourly position updates until Gonzalo clears Bermuda.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 31.7N  65.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 34.1N  63.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 38.7N  60.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 44.7N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 50.5N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 56.5N  18.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-10-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 17 2014\r\n\r\nHurricane Gonzalo passed over the central portion of the island of\r\nBermuda at around 0030 UTC this evening based on Bermuda radar data,\r\nvarious surface observations on the island, and pressure reports\r\nfrom an amateur radio operator -- call sign VP9NI -- located in\r\nDevonshire Parish.  The initial intensity of 95 kt is based on\r\nrecent ADT values of 97 kt.\r\n\r\nRadar fixes indicate that Gonzalo is moving north-northeastward or\r\n030/13 kt. There is no significant change to the previous track\r\nforecast or reasoning based on the tightly packed NHC model\r\nguidance. The hurricane should begin to accelerate toward the\r\nnortheast as Gonzalo becomes embedded deeper within the increasing\r\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough located\r\noff of the U.S. east coast. By 36 hours, Gonzalo is expected to be\r\npassing just to the southeast of Newfoundland as a strong\r\npost-tropical cyclone. The official forecast track is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory and is near the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nSlow weakening is expected for the next 12 hours or so due to\r\ngradually increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear, followed by\r\nmore rapid weakening after that as Gonzalo moves over sub-24C SSTs\r\nby 24 hours, and moves over even colder ocean tempratures after\r\nthat. Gonzalo is forecast to transition into a post-tropical\r\ncyclone by 36 hours as it passes near or to the southeast of\r\nNewfoundland.\r\n\r\nThe following information is provided at the request of the Bermuda\r\nWeather Service -- damage to the old and new hospitals has been\r\nreported, the AWOS weather sensors at the Bermuda International\r\nAirport have been damaged due to saltwater inundation and are\r\ninoperable, and the RCC Bermuda Radio Maritime Operations Center at\r\nSt. Georges has been damaged and is inoperable.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 32.7N  64.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 35.9N  62.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 41.2N  57.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 47.0N  49.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 57.0N  11.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-10-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\nThe eye of Gonzalo is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery,\r\nbut an enhanced area of cold cloud tops is still noted near the\r\ncenter position. The initial intensity has been lowered to 90 kt\r\nbased on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB and a blend of the\r\nlatest ADT CI and final-T numbers. Steady weakening is forecast\r\nduring the next 24 hours while Gonzalo moves across cooler waters.\r\nThe cyclone will cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream by 24 hours\r\nand should be extratropical shortly after that time. Slow decay is\r\nforecast during the extratropical phase before the cyclone\r\ndissipates in about 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 030/19, as Gonzalo is embedded in\r\nsouthwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a\r\ndeep-layer trough moving offshore of eastern North America. Gonzalo\r\nshould pass near or just southeast of Newfoundland in 24 to 36 hours\r\nand then move rapidly eastward across the north Atlantic until\r\ndissipation. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of\r\nthe previous one through 36 hours due to a westward shift in the\r\ntrack guidance this cycle. After that time, the NHC forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 34.7N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 38.2N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 44.2N  54.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 49.7N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 53.0N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 56.0N   3.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-10-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\nGonzalo's convective canopy is becoming ragged and substantially\r\nasymmetric with the cold clouds primarily seen in the northern\r\nsemicircle.  Subjective Dvorak and the objective Advanced Dvorak\r\nTechnique suggest a range from 65 to 77 kt for the maximum sustained\r\nwinds, while the CIMSS Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit estimate\r\nindicates about 85 kt.  A blend of these gives 80 kt for the initial\r\nintensity, a considerable drop from the previous advisory.  As\r\nGonzalo will be moving north of the warm Gulf Stream waters and\r\nexperiencing increasingly hostile vertical wind shear over the next\r\nday, the hurricane should steadily weaken. In about a day,\r\nextratropical transition should occur, consistent with the FSU\r\nCyclone Phase Space and SHIPS diagnostic analyses. However, rather\r\nthan getting a baroclinic kick after ET, Gonzalo is anticipated by\r\nthe global model guidance to continue weakening until dissipation in\r\nabout three days.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN\r\nmulti-model intensity consensus while a tropical cyclone and upon\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF global models while the system is extratropical.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is moving toward the north-northeast at 22 kt, as it is\r\nbeing advected along in the south-southwesterlies north of the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  The system should accelerate as it gets picked\r\nup by the core of the jet stream and becomes extratropical.  The\r\nNHC track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus and is just slightly westward of the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii were\r\nanalyzed to be larger than previously indicated based on a\r\n0922Z AMSU pass, as indicated by the CIRA size analyses.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast has been coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 36.8N  61.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 40.8N  58.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 51.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 53.5N  23.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-10-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\nAfter an earlier degradation of the convective cloud pattern,\r\nGonzalo has made a recent comeback with the cloud shield having\r\nbecome more symmetrical and the eye a little better defined. The\r\ninitial intensity of 80 kt is being maintained at 80 kt based on an\r\n1443 UTC ASCAT-A overpass which showed a peak of 77 kt in the\r\neastern quadrant and the improved satellite presentation. The same\r\noverpass also indicated that the 64-, 50-, and 34-kt wind radii had\r\nexpanded, and this is indicated in the new initial wind radii.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is accelerating rapidly northeastward and is now moving\r\nat a brisk 035/31 kt. The hurricane has become deeply embedded\r\nwithin the strong southwesterly flow on the east side of a high\r\namplitude trough located over the northeastern United States\r\nand southeastern Canada. Gonzalo is expected to move northeastward\r\nfor the next 24 hours or so and then turn east-northeastward over\r\nthe far north Atlantic on Day 2. The official forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory track, and closely follows the\r\nconsensus model TVCA. The post-tropical portion of the track\r\nforecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nAs Gonzalo continues to gain latitude, the cyclone's wind field\r\nshould continue to expand, accompanied by only slow weakening.\r\nGonzalo will be moving over sub-20C SSTs by 12 hours and be under\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt, which is\r\nexpected to result in transition to a strong post-tropical\r\nextratropical cyclone by 24 hours. Gradual weakening is expected\r\nafter the transition occurs until dissipation occurs in about 72\r\nhours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model\r\nthrough 24 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 39.3N  60.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 44.0N  54.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 49.6N  45.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 52.5N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 55.5N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-10-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nGonzalo has been maintaining a central dense overcast feature over\r\nthe large eye feature noted in microwave satellite imagery since the\r\nprevious advisory. A 19/0116 UTC ASCAT-B high-resolution overpass\r\nindicated 78-80 kt surface winds in the eastern quadrant about 45\r\nnmi southeast of the center, so the intensity remains 80 kt for\r\nthis advisory, which could be a conservative estimate. The same\r\nASCAT pass also indicted that the wind field in the southeastern\r\nsemicircle had expanded significantly, and the respective wind radii\r\nhave been increased accordingly.\r\n\r\nGonzalo continues to accelerate toward the northeast and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 040/34 kt. The latest 0000 UTC model\r\nguidance remains tightly packed, so no significant changes were\r\nmade to the previous forecast track. Gonzalo should continue to move\r\nnortheastward and then east-northeastward in the flow between a\r\ndeep-layer trough to the west of the hurricane and a subtropical\r\nridge to its south. The NHC forecast track is just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCA.\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast track was coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nRecent SST analyses and the forecast motion indicate that Gonzalo\r\nshould continue to move over a thermal ridge for a few more hours,\r\nwhich should help the cyclone maintain status as a tropical\r\ncyclone. By 12 hours, however, SSTs less than 12C and increasing\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 30 kt should result\r\nin Gonzalo making the transition to a strong post-tropical\r\nextratropical cyclone.  Gradual weakening is forecast after the\r\ntransition occurs and to continue until dissipation occurs in by 72\r\nhours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model\r\nthrough 12 hours, and then is based on input from the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 42.3N  57.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 47.0N  50.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 52.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 54.0N  24.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 57.0N   8.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":28,"Date":"2014-10-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014\r\n\r\nA small CDO feature persists near the center of Gonzalo, although\r\ncloud tops have warmed a bit recently. The initial intensity has\r\nbeen nudged downward to 75 kt for this advisory, assuming some\r\nweakening now that the cyclone is moving over SSTs of less than 15\r\ndeg C. Gonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today and\r\nweaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, post-\r\ntropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain an intensity of 45 kt over\r\nthe north Atlantic until the system dissipates shortly after 48\r\nhours. The NHC intensity forecast is based on guidance from the\r\nglobal models and the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nGonzalo has accelerated over the past 6 hours and is now racing\r\nnortheastward with an initial motion estimate of 040/45 knots. The\r\nglobal models are in good agreement on the cyclone accelerating\r\neast-northeastward over the north Atlantic during the next couple of\r\ndays. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels through dissipation and is near the latest guidance from OPC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 46.3N  52.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 50.1N  44.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 53.4N  31.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 56.2N  15.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":29,"Date":"2014-10-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 19 2014\r\n\r\nDespite traversing across sea-surface temperatures less than 10C,\r\nGonzalo has been able to maintain convection near the center. A 0845\r\nUTC AMSU overpass also revealed that Gonzalo still had a deep warm\r\ncore that extended above the 200 mb level. Oil rigs in the\r\nsoutheastern quadrant have reported sustained hurricane-force winds\r\nduring the past few hours, with oil rig VEP717 reporting a sustained\r\nwind of 85 kt more than 80 nmi from the center of Gonzalo. Since\r\nthis report originated from a height of 130 meters, the initial\r\nintensity will remain at 75 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 055/45 kt. The global and regional\r\nmodels are in good agreement on Gonzalo turning east-northeastward\r\nduring the next 12 hours or so, and then maintaining that motion\r\nover the far north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates in 2-3\r\ndays. The official track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and\r\nECMWF models, and is near the latest forecast guidance from the NOAA\r\nOcean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nGonzalo is expected to become extratropical later today, and\r\ngradually weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time,\r\npost-tropical Gonzalo is forecast to maintain storm-force winds over\r\nthe north Atlantic until the cyclone dissipates. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 49.0N  47.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 52.0N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 54.5N  23.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 57.0N   6.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 62.1N   2.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Gonzalo","Adv":30,"Date":"2014-10-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GONZALO DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082014\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 19 2014\r\n\r\nThe combined effect of sea-surface temperatures around 10C and\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear of more than 40 kt has finally\r\ntaken its toll on Gonzalo. The upper-level circulation is tilted\r\nmore than 100 nmi to the northeast of the low-level circulation\r\ncenter, and an abundance of cold-air stratocumulus clouds has\r\nwrapped all the way around the entire low-level circulation. Gonzalo\r\nlooks like a frontal low in satellite imagery, suggesting that the\r\nsystem has completed its transformation into an extratropical\r\ncyclone. The initial intensity has been decreased to 70 kt, which is\r\nconsistent with various decay models. Only gradual weakening is\r\nexpected during the next 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 060/45 kt. Gonzalo has turned toward\r\nthe east-northeast, and that general motion is expected for the next\r\n24-36 hours, after which the cyclone is forecast to slow down\r\nconsiderably and turn northward and be absorbed by a larger low\r\npressure system north of the British Isles by 72 hours. The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and\r\nis near the latest forecast guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nThis is the last NHC advisory on Gonzalo.  Additional information on\r\nthis system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the\r\nNational Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO\r\nheader FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 51.6N  41.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 53.6N  31.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 56.5N  15.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 58.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 64.5N   1.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  22/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite and radar data from Mexico indicate that deep convection\r\nassociated with the small well-defined low pressure area over the\r\nBay of Campeche has become organized in bands over the eastern and\r\nnorthern portions of the circulation during the past few hours.\r\nThus the low is being designated as a tropical depression.  Earlier\r\naircraft data supported winds around 30 kt.  The depression is over\r\nwarm water and moderate southwesterly shear that has been over the\r\nsystem is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours.  This\r\nshould allow for some strengthening and the depression is expected\r\nto to become a overnight or early Wednesday.  The cyclone should\r\nweaken after it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday night.\r\nIf the small cyclone survives the passage across the Yucatan\r\nPeninsula, drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely\r\nto prevent strengthening.  The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration\r\nto a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving eastward at about 5 kt.  This general\r\nmotion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours and the\r\ncyclone is forecast to reach the west coast of the Yucatan\r\nPeninsula late tomorrow or tomorrow night.  After that time, the\r\ntrack forecast becomes much more uncertain since the small system is\r\nlikely to interact with a developing non-tropical low pressure over\r\nthe southeastern Gulf of Mexico.  The ECMWF shows the tropical\r\ncyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the\r\ndepression a separate system.  For now, the NHC forecast shows a\r\nweak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 19.4N  92.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 19.4N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 19.4N  91.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 19.4N  90.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 19.4N  88.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 19.0N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 18.5N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z 18.5N  83.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n400 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014\r\n\r\nAfter the increase of deep convection noted earlier, thunderstorm\r\nactivity associated with depression has leveled off, and recently\r\ncloud tops have warmed.  Also, the tropical cyclone's presentation\r\non the Sabancuy, Mexico radar imagery has become less organized.\r\nThe current intensity of the system is held at 30 kt.  An Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the\r\ndepression later this morning to check its intensity.\r\n\r\nThe depression continues to be affected by southwesterly shear, but\r\nthe dynamical guidance indicates some weakening of this shear within\r\nthe next 24 hours.  This should allow for some strengthening of the\r\nsystem over the warm waters of the eastern Bay of Campeche, prior to\r\nreaching the Yucatan Peninsula tonight.  After weakening due to its\r\npassage across Yucatan, drier air associated with a frontal system\r\nand west-southwesterly shear are expected to prevent\r\nreintensification.  The official intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous one.  Since the system is quite small, it might be\r\ndisrupted more than expected by its interaction with land -- and\r\nweaken or degenerate into a remnant low sooner than shown by the NHC\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone continues to move eastward, or 090/5 kt.  A generally\r\nwesterly mid-level environmental flow should carry the system\r\nacross the Yucatan Peninsula and into the northwestern Caribbean\r\nSea during the forecast period.  The official track forecast is\r\nnudged only slightly to the south of the previous one, but is north\r\nof the multi-model consensus.  It should be noted that due to the\r\npossible interaction with a baroclinic cyclone to the northeast in\r\nthe latter part of the period, the track forecast becomes more\r\nuncertain by days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 19.4N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 19.4N  91.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 19.3N  90.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 19.1N  89.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 18.9N  88.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 18.5N  86.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 18.5N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0600Z 18.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n1000 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nSatellite images and data from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane\r\nindicate that the depression has not strengthened since yesterday.\r\nThe circulation remains well defined but the convection is not well\r\norganized, although new thunderstom activity is currently developing\r\nnear the center. The cyclone continues to be affected by moderate\r\nwesterly shear which should limit development. However, it is still\r\nexpected to become a tropical storm before moving inland over\r\nthe Yucatan peninsula where weakening is anticipated. If the\r\ndepression emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in about 3\r\ndays, there is an opportunity for some strengthening. Most of the\r\nglobal models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable\r\nupper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the\r\nthe cyclone survives its path over land.  On this basis, the NHC\r\nforecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days.\r\n\r\nSteering currents are weak, and the depression has been meandering\r\nduring the past few hours. The cyclone is located at the base of a\r\nmid-level trough, and most likely the depression will drift eastward\r\nfor the next 3 days while on the south side of the trough. Once\r\nin the northwestern Caribbean Sea, the trough is forecast to lift\r\nout and a narrow ridge will develop to the north of the cyclone.\r\nThis synoptic pattern should keep the cyclone with little motion in\r\nthe northwestern Caribbean Sea late in the forecast period. However,\r\nthe final portion of the NHC forecast continues to be highly\r\nuncertain, and is based on the blend of the GFS, ECMWF and HWRF\r\nmodel solutions.\r\n\r\nRains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not\r\ndirectly related to the tropical depression.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 19.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 19.3N  91.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 19.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 18.8N  89.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 18.5N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 18.5N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 18.5N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 18.5N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n400 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014\r\n\r\nThe depression still has a well defined circulation, but the\r\nassociated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day.\r\nBased on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is\r\nkept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the\r\nshear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will\r\nattain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan\r\npeninsula in about 12 hours or less. The NHC forecast keeps the\r\ncyclone as a tropical depression through 5 days as it crosses\r\nYucatan and moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. There\r\nis also a chance that the system dissipates over land in about 24\r\nhours or so.  The GFS changed its tune significantly between the\r\n06z and the 12z runs. It developed a strong tropical storm in the\r\nCaribbean in the earlier run, and only a weak trough in the 12z one.\r\nOn the other hand, both the ECMWF and the HWRF maintain a cyclone\r\nfor the next few days. This makes the intensity forecast highly\r\nuncertain, primarily since the GFS model could redevelop a cyclone\r\nin the next run.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been moving slowly toward the east-southeast or\r\n115 degrees at 4 knots.  The cyclone is located at the base of a\r\nmid-level trough, embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. This\r\npattern will steer the depression on a general eastward track over\r\nYucatan, and as the trough lifts out the depression could meander\r\nin the northwestern Caribbean Sea.\r\n\r\nRains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not\r\ndirectly related to the tropical depression.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 19.2N  91.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 19.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 18.6N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 18.0N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 18.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 18.0N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 18.0N  85.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 18.0N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Nine","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014\r\n\r\nRadar data from Mexico indicates that the cyclone moved inland\r\nbetween Campeche and Ciudad del Carmen just after 0000 UTC this\r\nevening.  Surface and aircraft reconnaissance data suggest that the\r\nmaximum winds had decreased to around 25 kt and that the minimum\r\npressure was 1004 mb when the depression crossed the coast.  The\r\nsystem has not produced a significant area of organized deep\r\nconvection since late this morning and it is therefore being\r\ndeclared a remnant low at this time.  The low is expected to weaken\r\nduring the next couple of days while it moves over the Yucatan\r\nPeninsula.  If the low emerges over the northwestern Caribbean Sea,\r\ndry air and westerly shear are expected to prevent regeneration.\r\nThe new NHC forecast follows the last couple runs of the GFS and\r\ncall for dissipation in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving east-southeastward at about 5 kt. A slow\r\neast-southeast to southeast motion is expected to continue during\r\nthe next few days.  The updated NHC track has been shifted a little\r\nleft of the previous track to be closer the latest GFS guidance and\r\nthe multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nRains currently affecting western Cuba and south Florida are not\r\ndirectly related to this system.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non this system.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 18.9N  90.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 18.8N  90.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 18.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 18.2N  88.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 17.8N  88.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 17.3N  87.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression\r\nNine have persisted and become better organized since yesterday.\r\nIn addition, ASCAT data from overnight indicate that the system was\r\nproducing 30-35 kt winds to the west of the center, just off of the\r\ncoast of Nicaragua.  Therefore, advisories have been re-initiated,\r\nwith the system being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna.\r\n\r\nThe center of Hanna is very close to the coast of northeastern\r\nNicaragua.  The system is moving west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt,\r\nand should be inland over Nicaragua by this afternoon.  A similar\r\nmotion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the\r\ncyclone dissipating by late Tuesday.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard associated with Hanna will be very heavy rainfall.\r\nHanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of rain, with\r\nisolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across Honduras and\r\nnorthern Nicaragua. These rains will likely produce flash flooding\r\nand mud slides.\r\n\r\nSince Hanna is so close to the coast and about to move inland, this\r\nforecast advisory was sent a couple of hours earlier than usual to\r\nexpedite the release of forecast information.  An intermediate\r\nadvisory will be issued at 2 PM EDT, followed by a full advisory at\r\n5 PM EDT, as scheduled.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 14.5N  83.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 14.0N  83.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 13.3N  84.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014\r\n\r\nThe surface center of Hanna has been somewhat difficult to locate,\r\nbut based on visible satellite imagery, it appears to have moved\r\ninland over extreme northeastern Nicaragua.  For now, the intensity\r\nis held at 35 kt to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-\r\nforce winds still occurring to the north of the center near the\r\ncoast of eastern Honduras.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 260/6 kt.  Hanna's center is forecast to turn\r\nwest-southwestward and move farther inland over northern Nicaragua\r\nduring the next 12 hours, more or less in line with the GFS and\r\nECMWF solutions.  Interaction with more mountainous terrain should\r\ncause the system to weaken quickly, with the surface center\r\ndissipating by Tuesday afternoon.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard associated with Hanna continues to be very heavy\r\nrainfall.  Hanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of\r\nrain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across\r\nHonduras and northern Nicaragua.  These rains could produce flash\r\nflooding and mudslides.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 14.6N  83.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 14.2N  84.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Hanna","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092014\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014\r\n\r\nThe circulation of Hanna no longer appears to be well defined\r\nbased on satellite imagery and surface observations. Since the\r\ncyclone center has dissipated, this will be the final advisory on\r\nthe remnants of Hanna.\r\n\r\nWhile cloud top temperatures have warmed markedly near the earlier\r\nestimated center location, heavy rainfall remains a significant\r\nthreat. The remnants of Hanna could produce 3 to 5 inches (75 to\r\n125 mm) of rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches (230\r\nmm), across Honduras and northern Nicaragua. These rains could\r\nproduce flash flooding and mud slides.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 14.5N  84.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-05-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with an area of low pressure well to the\r\nsouthwest of Mexico has gradually become better organized during the\r\npast 12 to 24 hours, and a 1708 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the\r\nsystem has a sufficiently well-defined center.  Therefore,\r\nadvisories are being initiated on the first tropical depression of\r\nthe eastern North Pacific season.  The initial intensity is set at\r\n25 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite estimates of T1.5 from\r\nboth TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been moving slowly toward the west-northwest\r\nwhile located on the edge of a mid-level ridge extending west from\r\nMexico, and the initial motion estimate is 285/3 kt.  The depression\r\nis expected to remain just to the west of the ridge and to the south\r\nof a deep-layer cyclone centered over California, which will likely\r\nkeep it in a weak steering environment for the next 3 to 4 days.  In\r\nfact, the ECMWF model even shows the depression becoming nearly\r\nstationary or meandering for a few days due to the weak steering.\r\nThe official forecast shows a relatively slow track toward the\r\nwest-northwest during the next 5 days and is close to the model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe depression is embedded in an environment of light vertical\r\nshear, which will likely support at least gradual intensification\r\nduring the next few days.  There is some disagreement among the\r\nintensity models as to how much strengthening will occur, however.\r\nFor example, the statistical LGEM keeps the depression below\r\ntropical storm strength for about 48 hours.  On the other hand, the\r\nSHIPS RI index indicates a 42 hance of a 25-kt increase in winds\r\nwithin the next 24 hours.  With the RI index relatively high, the\r\nofficial forecast is higher than the LGEM for the first few days.\r\nBy days 4 and 5, vertical shear is expected to strengthen, and the\r\nintensity is forecast to level off or decrease by the end of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 10.3N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 10.5N 108.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 10.8N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 11.1N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 11.4N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 12.0N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-05-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective appearance of the depression is somewhat disheveled\r\nthis evening, as the coldest cloud tops are located north and\r\neast of the estimated center position. The initial intensity is held\r\nat 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB. The\r\nsatellite presentation, satellite analyses from UW-CIMSS, and the\r\nSHIPS model suggest that some southerly and westerly shear\r\nassociated with a mid/upper-level trough well to the north is\r\ncurrently affecting the cyclone. During the next day or so, this\r\nenvironment should support only gradual intensification. As the\r\ntrough moves away the shear should decrease, which should allow for\r\nmore strengthening later in the period while the cyclone is over\r\nwarm waters. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\none through 72 hours, and has been adjusted upward toward the IVCN\r\nintensity consensus after that time, and is close to a blend of the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression has been difficult to locate with\r\ngeostationary and microwave imagery. However, a blend of satellite\r\nfixes and continuity yields an initial motion of 290/04. The cyclone\r\nis expected to move slowly west-northwestward for the next couple of\r\ndays, as a mid-level ridge to the east weakens and the trough north\r\nof the depression moves eastward. Through 48 hours the new official\r\nforecast is a little faster than the previous one and is close to a\r\nblend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Later in the period much of the\r\nguidance has shifted northward, with the GFS, GEFS ensemble mean,\r\nand GFDL taking the cyclone sharply poleward by day 5 as a ridge\r\nrebuilds to the east. The HWRF also shows a northward turn but is\r\nslower, while the ECMWF shows a much slower motion farther to the\r\neast of the rest of the guidance. Given the large shift in the\r\nguidance this cycle, only small adjustments have been made to the\r\nNHC forecast late in the period. The NHC track is close to the\r\nprevious one at days 3 and 4, and has been adjusted a little to the\r\nnorth and east at day 5, but remains well south of the multi-model\r\nconsensus at that time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 10.6N 107.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 10.8N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 11.1N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 11.6N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 11.8N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 12.0N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-05-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014\r\n\r\nConvective banding is currently increasing near the center of\r\nTropical Depression One-E over the northern semicircle.  There have\r\nbeen multiple recent scatterometer overpasses, with recent ASCAT-A\r\ndata showing an area of 25-30 kt winds about 60-75 n mi from the\r\ncenter over the northeastern quadrant.  Based on this, the initial\r\nintensity is increased to 30 kt.  The cirrus outflow is good in\r\nall directions.  However, analyses from CIMSS at the University of\r\nWisconsin suggest some light southerly shear continues to affect the\r\nsystem.\r\n\r\nThe scatterometer fixes have helped pin down the center location,\r\nand the initial motion is estimated at 295/4.  The depression is\r\nsouth of a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer\r\ntrough over the western United States.  While the large-scale models\r\nforecast this trough to move eastward, the subtropical ridge is\r\nlikely to remain weak with the tropical cyclone remaining in an\r\narea of light steering currents for most of the forecast period.\r\nWhile the guidance shows a large spread, there is general agreement\r\nthat the depression should move slowly west-northwestward for the\r\nnext 2-3 days, followed by a turn to the north as a mid/upper-level\r\ntrough develops near 120W and a mid/upper-level ridge develops east\r\nof the cyclone.  The new forecast track is near the previous track\r\nthrough 72 hour and is nudged a little to the east of the previous\r\ntrack after that time.  The track lies north of the model consensus\r\nthrough 72 hours and west of the consensus at 96 and 120 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression is currently expected to be in an area of light/\r\nmoderate southerly vertical wind shear during the forecast period.\r\nThis should allow at least gradual strengthening, and the new\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and the\r\nintensity consensus.  There are two potential, and contradictory,\r\nissues with the intensity forecast.  The first is that the\r\nlarge-scale models forecast moderate to strong upper-level winds\r\nnear the cyclone during the forecast period, especially after 72\r\nhours.  If these winds get closer to the system than currently\r\nforecast, they could inhibit development.  The second is that the\r\nSHIPS rapid intensification index is showing a significantly above-\r\nnormal chance of rapid intensification, and the GFDL model forecasts\r\nthe depression to reach hurricane strength in about 72 hours.  If\r\nthe stronger upper-level wind do not impact the cyclone, it could\r\nstrengthen more than currently forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 10.8N 108.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 11.1N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 11.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 11.5N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 11.6N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 12.0N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 12.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 13.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-05-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM RRA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...RETRANSMITTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014\r\n\r\nConvection has been gradually filling in near the center and taking\r\non a more pronounced banding structure during the past few hours.\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt at 1200 UTC, but\r\nthe most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates are running around 40 kt.\r\nIn addition, recent AMSU intensity estimates yielded 38 kt and 44\r\nkt.  Based on the higher objective numbers, and the overall increase\r\nin convective organization since 1200 UTC, the depression is being\r\nupgraded to Tropical Storm Amanda at this time.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 35 kt based on a consensus of the subjective and\r\nobjective numbers.\r\n\r\nAmanda's initial motion is a slow 295/4 kt.  The storm is located to\r\nthe southwest of a fairly weak mid-level anticyclone over central\r\nMexico and to the south of a large deep-layer low over southern\r\nCalifornia.  The anticyclone is forecast to weaken during the next\r\ncouple of days, while the deep-layer low slides almost due eastward\r\nacross the southwestern U.S.  As a result, Amanda is expected to\r\nremain in weak steering flow, and its motion should remain less than\r\n5 kt during the next 5 days.  Amanda is now expected to turn\r\nnorthward by day 5 due to mid-level ridging redeveloping over\r\nMexico and a mid-level low forming near 130W.  The GFS has had the\r\nmost dramatic shift in track since yesterday and now shows Amanda\r\nturning northward by the end of the forecast period.  The updated\r\nNHC forecast has been shifted a bit to the right of the previous\r\none now that there is a little more agreement among the models on a\r\nnorthward turn.\r\n\r\nAmanda is expected to remain in a relatively light-shear\r\nenvironment for the next 3 days or so, and therefore at least\r\ngradual strengthening is anticipated.  Although upwelling of\r\ncold water could be a concern due to Amanda's slow forecast motion,\r\nupper ocean heat content is expected to increase along the\r\ncyclone's path.  Due to these favorable conditions, the SHIPS RI\r\nindex still supports a significant potential (about a 50 percent\r\nchance of a 25-kt increase over the next 24 hours) of rapid\r\nintensification.  All of the models have been trending toward a\r\nhigher peak intensity, led by the SHIPS and GFDL, which both make\r\nAmanda a hurricane by 48 hours.  The new NHC forecast is not quite\r\nthat aggressive, but it does now show Amanda reaching hurricane\r\nstrength in about 3 days or so.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 10.9N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 11.1N 108.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 11.5N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 11.9N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 12.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 13.5N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 15.0N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-05-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014\r\n\r\nVisible and microwave imagery suggest that Amanda's low- and\r\nmid-level circulation centers may be offset from each other due to\r\nsome southerly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.  However, convective\r\nbanding continues to increase, and overall the system is taking on a\r\nmore circular appearance.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nhave risen to T2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is held\r\nat 35 kt for this advisory.  With relatively light shear and sea\r\nsurface temperatures around 29C, Amanda is forecast to continue\r\nstrengthening at least for the next 3 days or so.  The intensity\r\nguidance has trended upward, and the LGEM and HWRF have now come in\r\nline with the SHIPS and GFDL models by showing Amanda reaching\r\nhurricane status in a few days.  The SHIPS RI index continues to run\r\nhigh, and several of the models suggest that Amanda could reach\r\nhurricane strength by 36 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast has been\r\nbumped upward, but further modifications may be required in future\r\nadvisories if faster intensification appears to be setting in.\r\n\r\nAmanda is moving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak\r\nmid-level anticyclone centered over Mexico, and the initial motion\r\nis 290/3 kt.  With the anticyclone expected to weaken further,\r\nAmanda is likely to creep west-northwestward for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays.  The global models indicate that a mid-level low will form\r\nalong 130W by day 3, and that feature should help turn Amanda toward\r\nthe north at a slightly faster speed by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  With the exception of the HWRF model, the remainder of the\r\ntrack guidance agrees on this slow northward turn.  The track\r\nguidance envelope has contracted a bit, and no significant changes\r\nto the previous NHC track were required.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 11.0N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 11.2N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 11.6N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 11.8N 110.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 12.0N 111.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 12.5N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 14.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 15.5N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-05-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda has organized quickly over the past few hours. Deep\r\nconvection now wraps more than halfway around the estimated center\r\nposition, and an AMSR-2 microwave pass a few hours ago showed the\r\ndevelopment of a mid-level eye feature. Based on the latest ADT\r\nestimate from UW-CIMSS the initial intensity has been increased to\r\n50 kt. Now that Amanda is developing inner-core structure, it seems\r\nlikely that the cyclone will be able to take advantage of the\r\nfavorable environment and intensify, possibly rapidly, during the\r\nnext day or so. The SHIPS model shows the shear remaining 10 kt or\r\nless for the next 36 hours, and the SHIPS RI index shows a 58\r\npercent probability of a 30-kt intensity increase in the next 24\r\nhours. The official intensity forecast has been adjusted sharply\r\nupward and shows Amanda becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. A peak in\r\nintensity is shown at 48 hours, however, it is possible that\r\nAmanda could strengthen more than indicated here. After 48 hours,\r\nthe shear will begin to increase ahead of an approaching trough and\r\nthe cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters, which should\r\nresult in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is a little above most\r\nof the guidance through 24 hours and is close to the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus after that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/04, as the cyclone continues\r\nto move slowly around the southwestern side of a weakening\r\nmid-level ridge centered over Mexico. This slow west-northwestward\r\nmotion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn\r\ntoward the northwest is shown around 48 hours, with a gradual\r\nnorthward acceleration expected late in the period as the ridge\r\nrestrengthens to the east and a mid/upper-level trough approaches\r\nfrom the west. The track model guidance has trended somewhat faster\r\nthis cycle, especially by day 5, and the official forecast has been\r\nadjusted in that direction. Otherwise, the new NHC track is largely\r\nan update of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 11.2N 109.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 11.4N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 11.7N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 11.9N 111.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 12.2N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 13.2N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 15.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 17.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-05-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda has continued to become better organized during the past 6\r\nhours, with the system now showing a well-defined central dense\r\novercast and increasing outer convective banding.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates are 55 kt and 45 kt from SAB and TAFB.  In\r\naddition, Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates from CIMSS are\r\nnear 60 kt, and a recent AMSU intensity estimate from CIRA was 76\r\nkt. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, and\r\nthis could be conservative.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/04.  There is little change to\r\nthe track forecast or the track forecast reasoning.  Amanda is\r\nmoving slowly around the southwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge\r\ncentered over Mexico. This current slow motion is expected to\r\ncontinue for the next 24 hours or so. A turn toward the northwest is\r\nshown around 36-48 hours, with a slight northward acceleration\r\nexpected late in the period as the ridge restrengthens to the east\r\nand a mid/upper-level trough approaches from the west.  The new\r\nforecast track is similar to, but slightly faster than, the\r\nprevious track.\r\n\r\nThe Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 50-70\r\npercent chance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours,\r\nwith Amanda expected to remain over warm water in a light vertical\r\nwind shear environment.  The SHIPS, GFDL, HWRF, and Florida State\r\nSuperensemble models also call for rapid strengthening.  Based on\r\nthis, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification for\r\n24-36 hours, and it is possible that Amanda could strengthen more\r\nthan currently forecast.  After 48 hours, a combination of\r\nincreasing shear caused by the approaching trough and decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track should cause steady to\r\nrapid weakening.  The new intensity forecast is a little stronger\r\nthan the previous forecast through 48 hours, and after that it shows\r\na faster weakening than the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 11.4N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 11.7N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 11.9N 110.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 12.2N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 12.7N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 15.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 17.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-05-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014\r\n\r\nAn eye has been observed sporadically in infrared satellite imagery\r\nduring the past few hours, and recent microwave data has also\r\nrevealed a small pinhole eye in the 85-GHz channel and a 12-15 n mi\r\neye in TRMM radar data. Satellite classifications are still rising,\r\nand Amanda is being initialized as a 65-kt hurricane based on Dvorak\r\nestimates of T4.0 from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Amanda is\r\nintensifying rapidly, strengthening by 35 kt over the past 24 hours.\r\n\r\nAmanda is located over very warm water and in an environment of\r\nlight vertical wind shear, and all indications are that this period\r\nof rapid intensification is likely to continue.  The operational\r\nSHIPS Rapid Intensification Index (RII) is indicating a 60 percent\r\nchance of a 40-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours,\r\nwhich is almost 15 times higher than normal.  An experimental Joint\r\nHurricane Testbed version of the RII product, which includes\r\nadditional environmental variables, is showing even higher chances\r\nof rapid intensification.  Based on this guidance, Amanda is\r\nforecast to continue strengthening rapidly, potentially reaching the\r\nthreshold for major hurricane in about 24-36 hours.  After 48\r\nhours, southerly vertical shear is expected to increase, which is\r\nlikely to cause Amanda's low- and mid-level circulations to\r\ndecouple.  Therefore, fast weakening is indicated toward the end of\r\nthe forecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is higher than the\r\nprevious one during the first 48 hours to account for the high\r\nlikelihood of continued rapid intensification, but it is largely\r\nunchanged thereafter.\r\n\r\nAmanda continues on its slow west-northwestward trek, and the\r\ninitial motion is estimated to be 290/4 kt.  A mid-level ridge\r\ncentered over Mexico should begin weakening soon, which will cause\r\nthe hurricane's forward motion to slow even further during the next\r\n24 hours.  In about 2 days, the mid-level ridge is forecast to\r\nrestrengthen over the western Gulf of Mexico while a mid-level\r\ntrough amplifies near 130W.  This pattern change should push Amanda\r\nnorthward between days 3 and 5, but the speed is still likely to be\r\nfairly slow.  The GFS and ECMWF models are located on the right side\r\nof the guidance envelope on this forecast cycle, and the NHC\r\nforecast has therefore been shifted a bit to the right as well,\r\nespecially beyond 36 hours.  This track is also to the right of the\r\nmodel consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 11.4N 109.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 11.6N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 11.9N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 12.4N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 13.1N 111.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-05-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda's eye is becoming more apparent in visible imagery.  The\r\nhurricane has a fairly small central dense overcast with one\r\nprominent convective band curving around the western and northern\r\nside of the circulation.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are\r\nT4.0/65 kt, and the objective ADT has been steady around 70 kt for\r\nthe past few hours.  The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based\r\non the ADT estimate and the development of an eye in visible\r\nimagery.\r\n\r\nAmanda likely has another 36 hours or so of favorable conditions\r\nfor intensification before southerly vertical wind shear begins to\r\nincrease.  The rate of intensification may have slowed down just a\r\nbit, but there's no real good reason not to expect further\r\nstrengthening in the short term.  One potential limiting factor\r\ncould be upwelling of colder ocean water due to the slow movement of\r\nthe hurricane during the next few days.  The intensity guidance has\r\nbacked off a bit on this cycle, with many of the models peaking the\r\nmaximum winds just below major hurricane strength.  Only the Florida\r\nState Superensemble explicitly shows Amanda becoming a major\r\nhurricane in 24-36 hours.  Nonetheless, Amanda is forecast to be\r\nright around the major hurricane threshold of 100 kt in a day or\r\nso.  After 36 hours, higher vertical shear should induce a fairly\r\nfast weakening trend, and the NHC forecast now shows Amanda\r\nbecoming a tropical depression by day 5.\r\n\r\nAmanda's motion remains 290/4 kt.  The hurricane should begin\r\nturning northwestward within 24 hours and then northward by 36\r\nhours as the mid-level ridge over Mexico weakens.  A slightly\r\nfaster motion may develop in about 48 hours due to a\r\nrestrengthening of the mid-level ridge over Mexico and an\r\namplification of a mid-level low near 130W.  The NHC forecast has\r\nagain been shifted a bit to the right toward the tracks of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF, both of which lie along the eastern edge of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 11.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 11.5N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 12.0N 111.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 12.6N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 13.5N 111.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 15.0N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 16.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 16.5N 111.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-05-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT MAY 24 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda has continued to rapidly intensify over the past few hours,\r\nwith the cloud pattern now featuring a ring of very cold cloud tops\r\nsurrounding an eye that has quickly cleared out and warmed in the\r\nlast several infrared images. The latest Dvorak satellite estimates\r\ninclude a T5.5/102 kt from SAB at 00Z, a T6.0/115 kt from a special\r\n02Z TAFB classification, and 92 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0200Z.\r\nBased on a blend of these, the initial intensity has been set to 100\r\nkt, and this could be conservative given the trends seen in the\r\nlatest infrared images.\r\n\r\nAdditional intensification appears likely over the next 12 to 24\r\nhours. The NHC forecast in the short term is above all of the\r\nguidance, but is closest to the FSU Superensemble. By 36 hours,\r\nsteady weakening is expected to begin as Amanda encounters\r\nincreasing shear ahead of an approaching mid-/upper-level trough and\r\nSSTs cool along the forecast track. The NHC forecast late in the\r\nperiod is close to the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/04. Amanda is expected to turn\r\nnorthwestward by 24 hours and northward by 48 hours as the mid-level\r\nridge centered over Mexico weakens. After that time, a continued\r\nslow northward motion is expected as a weakening Amanda moves\r\nbetween a re-building ridge to the east and a mid/upper-level\r\ntrough approaching from the west. The new NHC track forecast is\r\nclose to the previous one and remains along the east side of the\r\ntrack guidance envelope. At days 4 and 5 the NHC track is close to\r\nthe FSU Superensemble.\r\n\r\nThe operational intensity estimate of Amanda at 00Z was less than\r\n100 kt. Therefore, this makes Amanda the second earliest major\r\nhurricane on record in the eastern North Pacific basin, behind only\r\nHurricane Bud of 2012.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 11.6N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 11.8N 111.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 12.3N 111.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 12.9N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 13.8N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 15.0N 111.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 17.0N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-05-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda is still rapidly intensifying.  The eye has become more\r\ndistinct and a large ring of cloud tops colder than -70C\r\nsurround the center.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB\r\nand SAB are 6.5/127 kt and 6.0/115 kt, respectively.  A blend of\r\nthese estimates and the latest ADT values from UW-CIMSS support\r\nincreasing the initial wind speed to 120 kt, making Amanda a\r\ncategory 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\r\n\r\nThe major hurricane could gain some more strength today while the\r\natmospheric and oceanic environments remain conducive for\r\nintensification.  After that time, however, southerly shear is\r\nexpected to increase and that should start the weakening process.\r\nThe GFS and ECMWF models show Amanda beginning to tilt vertically\r\nin response to the shear in about 24 hours, with the low- and\r\nmid-level centers eventually decoupling.  Gradually decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures and drier mid-level air should also aid in the\r\nweakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the\r\nprevious one in the short term to account for the higher initial\r\nwind speed, but is otherwise unchanged and follows the intensity\r\nmodel consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving slowly west-northwestward, with the\r\ninitial motion estimate the same as before, 295/4.  A turn to the\r\nnorthwest is expected today followed by a northward motion tonight\r\nas Amanda gets embedded in the flow between a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough to its west and a mid-level ridge to its east.  A\r\nnortheastward turn is predicted in about 4 days when the trough to\r\nthe west of Amanda gets closer to the system.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is very close to the previous one and near the latest\r\nFSSE and TVCE guidance.\r\n\r\nBased on the current intensity of the system, Amanda is the second\r\nstrongest May hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin on record,\r\nbehind Hurricane Adolph in 2001.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 11.7N 110.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 11.9N 111.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 12.5N 111.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 13.4N 111.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 14.3N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 15.6N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-05-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda has continued to rapidly strengthen this morning, although\r\nthe hurricane is likely near its peak intensity. The 15 n mi\r\ndiameter eye remains quite distinct in infrared and first-light\r\nvisible satellite imagery, and a solid ring of cloud tops as cold\r\nas -75C surround the eye. Subjective classifications at 1200 UTC\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB were T7.0/140 kt and T6.5/127 kt, respectively.\r\nThe ADT estimate from UW-CIMSS was T6.6/130 kt, and those values\r\nhave continued to steadily increase to T6.8/135 kt as of 1330 UTC.\r\nA blend of these intensity estimates easily support increasing the\r\nintensity to 135 kt, which is just below category 5 strength on the\r\nSaffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\r\n\r\nAmanda appears to have stalled during the past few hours and is now\r\ndrifting slowly northward or north-northwestward at around 2 kt, a\r\nmotion that has been well forecast in previous advisories over the\r\npast 2 days. Amanda is expected to maintain a general northward\r\nmotion over the next 72 hours as the hurricane moves into a\r\ncombined southerly steering between a mid-/upper-level trough to its\r\nwest and a mid-level ridge to its east. By days 4 and 5, Amanda is\r\nexpected to be a significantly weakened and more shallow cyclone\r\nthat is forecast to slow down and turn westward under the influence\r\nof a large low-level subtropical ridge located from Baja California\r\nwestward into the central Pacific Ocean. The NHC track forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and lies near a blend of the FSSE\r\nand TVCE models.\r\n\r\nAmanda has likely reached its peak intensity, or is very close to\r\nit. Although the SHIPS intensity model indicates SSTs warmer than\r\n29C exists beneath and ahead of the hurricane, various SST analysis\r\nproducts at 1200 UTC this morning indicate that cold upwelling has\r\nalready begun beneath the cyclone, and this cold upwelling should be\r\nexacerbated even further now the cyclone is moving at a forward\r\nspeed of only 2 kt. As a result, steady weakening is expected within\r\nthe next 12 hours or so. By 36 hours and beyond, southerly to\r\nsouthwesterly winds shear is forecast to increase to more than 20\r\nkt, which should further enhance the weakening process. By day 5,\r\nthe global models are in good agreement on the low- and upper-level\r\ncirculations decoupling, which could result in Amanda becoming a\r\nremnant low at that time. The official intensity forecast is similar\r\nto the previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity model\r\nconsensus IVCN, which is well below the SHIPS and LGEM models\r\nthrough 36 hours.\r\n\r\nAmanda is now the strongest May hurricane on record in the eastern\r\nPacific basin during the satellite era. If Amanda were to reach an\r\nintensity of 140 kt, it would become the earliest category 5\r\nhurricane on record, beating out Hurricane Ava of 1973.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 11.8N 111.1W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 12.2N 111.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 13.0N 111.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 14.0N 111.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 15.0N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 16.5N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 17.6N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 18.6N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-05-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Amanda\r\nlikely peaked in intensity around 1200 UTC this morning and has\r\nstarted weakening since then. The CDO feature has decreased in size\r\nand become more ragged looking during the past few hours, and the\r\nsmall eye is becoming less distinct and cloud-filled in visible\r\nimagery. A 1459 UTC SSMI/S microwave image revealed that Amanda\r\npossessed a pinhole eye, which usually means that an eyewall\r\nreplacement cycle is not far behind. The initial intensity has been\r\ndecreased to 130 kt based on a blend of final T-numbers from TAFB\r\nand SAB ranging from T5.5/102 kt to T6.5/127 kt. Although UW-CIMSS\r\nADT estimates remain at T6.9/137 kt, the raw values have dropped to\r\nT6.1/117 kt, which further supports lowering the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nAmanda is now moving northward to north-northwestward or 350/04 kt.\r\nThe hurricane is forecast to maintain this general motion for the\r\nnext 3 days or so as the cyclone remains embedded in southerly\r\nsteering flow between a broad deep-layer trough to its west and a\r\nweak mid-level ridge to its east. After that time, Amanda is\r\nforecast to weaken fairly significantly and become a shallow cyclone\r\nthat could briefly stall before turning westward or southwestward\r\nwhen it comes under the influence of a large low-level subtropical\r\nridge to its north. The model guidance suite has shifted westward\r\nthis cycle, including the consensus model TVCE. However, the latter\r\nmodel is biased by a more westerly track of the UKMET model that\r\ninitialized a very weak cyclone instead of a more robust category 4\r\nhurricane. Therefore, the official track forecast remains similar to\r\nthe previous track and lies to right of TVCE, near the eastern\r\nportion of the guidance envelope and closer to the ECMWF model.\r\n\r\nCold upwelling and occasional intrusions of dry mid-level air should\r\nslowly erode the inner-core convection over the next 24 hours or so.\r\nAn eyewall replacement cycle is also possible, which would act to\r\nhasten the weakening process. By day 2 and beyond, the combination\r\nof cooler water, drier air, and increasing southerly vertical wind\r\nshear should induce more rapid weakening, and Amanda is forecast to\r\ndegenerate into a non-convective remnant low by day 5. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the\r\nintensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 12.3N 111.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 12.8N 111.4W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 13.6N 111.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 15.6N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 17.1N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 18.4N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-05-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN MAY 25 2014\r\n\r\nSince Amanda peaked in intensity earlier today, there has been\r\nsome erosion of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant\r\nof the cyclone, likely due to onset of moderate south-southwesterly\r\nwind shear.  A pronounced dry slot is also noted wrapping around the\r\nsouthern half of the circulation in geostationary and microwave\r\nimagery. Satellite intensity estimates have decreased slightly, and\r\nthe initial intensity is set to 125 kt, based on blend of Final-T\r\nand CI numbers.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 335/03.  The cyclone is located between a\r\nmid-level ridge to the east-northeast and a mid-/upper-level trough\r\nto the west.  A weak deep-layer south-southeasterly to southerly\r\nflow between these two features should steer Amanda north-\r\nnorthwestward and then northward during the next few days. A turn\r\ntoward the north-northeast is forecast in about 72 hours when the\r\naforementioned mid- to upper-level trough approaches the\r\ncyclone. After that time, a much weaker Amanda should stall or\r\nbegin to drift westward or southwestward as a shallow feature in the\r\ntrade wind flow.  The model guidance this cycle has shifted westward\r\nagain, and the official forecast is adjusted in that direction.  It\r\nlies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, nearly midway\r\nbetween the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus TVCE\r\nthrough 72 hours and south of the previous forecast late in the\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nModerate to strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear,\r\ncombined with gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures along\r\nthe forecast track, should cause Amanda to quickly weaken during the\r\nnext few days. In about 3 days, the model guidance shows the low-\r\nand mid-level circulations of Amanda decoupling as the cyclone\r\ninteracts with the trough to its west.  The entrainment of\r\nsubstantially drier and more stable air should then cause whatever\r\nremains of Amanda to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The\r\nofficial forecast is slightly lower than the previous one in the\r\nshort term and close to the multi-model consensus ICON.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 12.6N 111.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 13.0N 111.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 15.0N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 15.9N 112.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 16.6N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 18.0N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-05-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda has not changed much during the last several hours.  The\r\neye of the hurricane, although slightly ragged in appearance at\r\ntimes, remains evident with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding\r\nthe center.  Earlier microwave data showed a pronounced dry slot\r\nwrapping into the eastern portion of the circulation, however, the\r\nlatest images suggest it might be, at least temporally, moistening\r\nback up in that area.  An average of the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support\r\nan initial wind speed of 120 kt.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is expected to weaken at a rapid pace beginning\r\nlater today due to the combined influences of southerly to\r\nsouthwesterly shear, dry air intrusion, and decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures.  Amanda is forecast to weaken to a remnant low in 4\r\nto 5 days, when most of the models show the low- and mid-level\r\ncenters of the cyclone decoupling.  The NHC intensity forecast is an\r\nupdate of the previous one and is in line with the majority of the\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe system is moving slowly north-northwestward, and the latest\r\ninitial motion estimate is 340/4.  This general motion is predicted\r\nto continue for the next 48 hours while the hurricane remains\r\nembedded in the flow between a trough to its west and a ridge to its\r\neast over Mexico.  Beyond a couple of days, the weakening tropical\r\ncyclone is expected to drift northeastward or become stationary when\r\nit is forecast to be more influenced by the low-level steering flow.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is nudged to the west to be in better\r\nagreement with the latest consensus aids, TVCE and FSSE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 13.1N 111.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 13.8N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 14.8N 112.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 15.7N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 16.3N 112.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 16.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 17.3N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 17.8N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-05-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 AM PDT MON MAY 26 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda has changed little during the past 6 hours, including an\r\nintermittent eye embedded within a ragged CDO feature containing\r\ncloud tops colder than -70C. A blend of final T-numbers and current\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT value of T6.3/122\r\nkt, yields an average of 114 kt. Thus, the initial intensity of\r\nAmanda has been lowered to 115 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nSmoothing through the many fits and starts yields a 12-hour average\r\nmotion of 345/04 kt, which is used for the advisory motion.\r\nOtherwise, there are no significant changes to the previous\r\nadvisory track or reasoning. Amanda is expected to move slowly\r\nnorth-northwestward to northward between a broad mid-level trough\r\nto its west and a weak subtropical ridge situated to its east over\r\nMexico for the next 72 hours or so. After which some slow erratic\r\nmotion is possible when the cyclone is expected to weaken into\r\na shallow system and become trapped within weak steering currents.\r\nThe global and regional models are in good agreement on this\r\ndeveloping scenario. As a result, the official forecast track is\r\nessentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and is\r\nclose to the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model.\r\n\r\nThe deep-layer vertical wind shear across Amanda is assessed at\r\naround 25 kt by both the GFS-based SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS, and\r\nthese strong shear conditions are expected to continue for at least\r\nthe next 36 hours. As a result, steady to rapid weakening is\r\nforecast to begin later today, especially if significant cold\r\nupwelling develops beneath the slow-moving hurricane.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely\r\nfollows the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 13.2N 111.6W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 14.0N 111.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 14.9N 112.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 15.7N 112.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 16.1N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 16.8N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 17.1N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 17.3N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-05-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014\r\n\r\nAfter significant erosion of the deep convection in the southern\r\nportion of the eyewall, a resurgence of convective development has\r\noccurred in the past couple of hours, including the redevelopment\r\nof the CDO feature and a cloud-filled eye. However, an average of\r\nall available satellite intensity estimates indicates that Amanda\r\nhas still weakened and is now a 105-kt category 3 hurricane.\r\n\r\nA 12-hour average motion of 335/04 kt was used for the advisory\r\nmotion, in spite of the many wobbles in the track during the past\r\nfew hours. Although the model guidance isn't quite the proverbial\r\nsquashed spider pattern that typically suggests a slow and erratic\r\nmotion, it isn't far from it. Amanda is expected to move slowly\r\nnorthward into a broad weakness in the subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone during the next few days, during which time\r\nthe steering currents are forecast to collapse. While the steering\r\ncurrents erode, Amanda is also forecast to become a significantly\r\nweaker and more shallow cyclone during that time, resulting in the\r\ncyclone meandering south of Socorro Island as a remnant low by Day\r\n5, if not sooner. The official forecast track remains close to a\r\nblend of the consensus model TVCE and the FSSE model.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer shear of more than 20 kt is expected to continue to\r\naffect Amanda for the next 24 hours or so, resulting in steady to\r\nrapid weakening during the forecast period. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, and remains close to\r\nthe intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 13.4N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 14.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 14.8N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 15.4N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 15.9N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 16.4N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 16.7N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-05-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 PM PDT MON MAY 26 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda's cloud pattern had been reasonably well organized during\r\nthe day, with the cyclone maintaining a small Central Dense Overcast\r\nand an intermittent but faint eye.  The eye has since disappeared\r\nand the convective structure has become increasingly less symmetric,\r\npresumably as a consequence of an increase in southerly vertical\r\nwind shear.  The cloud pattern has also recently become elongated\r\npoleward, with little to no outflow noted to the south. Using a\r\nblend of Dvorak T- and CI numbers and recent satellite trends...the\r\nadvisory wind speed is reduced to 90 kt.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes indicate that Amanda has moved somewhat erratically\r\nduring the day...but smoothing through these yields an initial\r\nmotion of 340/04. The cyclone is embedded in a region of weak\r\nsteering flow between a mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico\r\nand a mid- to upper-level trough to the west.  This pattern should\r\nsteer the cyclone slowly northward during the next couple of days.\r\nAfter that time, the forecast becomes more challenging as the\r\nmodel spread increases significantly.  The GFS forecasts Amanda to\r\nremain a deeper cyclone longer and therefore moves it much farther\r\nnortheast, while the ECMWF shows the cyclone decoupling sooner and\r\ninteracting with a disturbance to the its east.  As a result, Amanda\r\nor its remnants in the ECMWF solution move generally eastward\r\nwithout gaining much latitude.  Given the uncertainty, the official\r\nforecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and a little to\r\nthe east of the previous forecast beyond 36 hours.\r\n\r\nGlobal models show the shear at its worst during the next 24 hours\r\nand then slowly decreasing as the mid- to upper-level trough\r\naffecting the cyclone lifts out.  Even though upper-level winds are\r\nforecast to become anticyclonic late in the period...what remains of\r\nthe Amanda should be moving over cooler waters and within a region\r\nof substantially drier and more stable air in the wake of the\r\naforementioned trough.  Thus, it would seem that the shear\r\ndebilitates Amanda and the other negative factors cause the cyclone\r\nto degenerate into a remnant low.  The official forecast is lower\r\nthan the previous one and is a blend of the multi-model intensity\r\nconsensus ICON and LGEM.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 13.7N 111.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 14.2N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 14.9N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 15.4N 112.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 15.9N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 17.0N 111.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z 16.9N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-05-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda apparently still has some gas in the tank.  The hurricane\r\nappeared to be succumbing to strong vertical shear on Monday, but\r\nits satellite presentation has improved markedly during the past\r\nseveral hours.  An eye has reappeared and is completely surrounded\r\nby convective tops as cold as -85C.  The shear is still affecting\r\nthe structure, however, with the clouds elongated from south to\r\nnorth.  Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have risen to T6.0/115 kt\r\nfrom TAFB, T5.5/102 kt from SAB, and T6.5/127 kt from the objective\r\nADT.  The initial intensity is therefore raised to 110 kt based on\r\na conservative blend of these data.\r\n\r\nThe recent reintensification has resulted in a somewhat significant\r\nchange to the official intensity forecast.  Weakening is expected\r\nto resume soon due to strong south to southwesterly shear, which\r\nshould persist for another 24 hours or so.  After that time,\r\nhowever, an upper-level shortwave trough currently to the northwest\r\nof Amanda is expected to lift northeastward and dampen, which\r\ncould leave the hurricane in a slightly more favorable upper-level\r\nenvironment for a few days.  Due to the higher initial intensity and\r\nthe more favorably evolving upper-level pattern, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast shows more gradual weakening than before, and Amanda may\r\nnot become a remnant low until the very end of the forecast period.\r\nDespite the adjustment, the updated forecast is near the lower end\r\nof the intensity guidance and matches best with the FSU\r\nSuperensemble.  The weakening trend could be even slower if the rest\r\nof the intensity models end up being correct.\r\n\r\nAmanda continues to move slowly north-northwestward...or 340/4 kt...\r\nbetween a weak mid-level ridge over Mexico and a mid-/upper-level\r\ntrough near 20N128W.  As the trough migrates eastward, Amanda is\r\nforecast to continue moving slowly northward and then turn\r\nnortheastward by 48 hours.  Once the cyclone weakens, however, weak\r\nlow-level flow off the coast of Mexico will likely cause it to\r\nstall or meander by days 4 and 5.  Although there is still a\r\nsignificant amount of spread in the track guidance, nearly all of\r\nthe models have shifted to the right, with the GFS and ECMWF lying\r\non the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.  The NHC track has\r\nalso been nudged eastward and lies to the right of the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 14.2N 112.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 14.6N 112.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 15.1N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 15.8N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 16.4N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 17.5N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-05-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda's eye has again disappeared from the infrared and\r\nfirst-light visible imagery from GOES-West this morning.  However,\r\nmicrowave imagery from the TRMM and SSMI polar-orbiting satellites\r\nstill indicated a small, complete eyewall was present.  Using\r\na blend of final T and Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB suggests an intensity of 100-105 kt, while the ADT estimate\r\nof 125 kt appears to be too high.  The initial intensity is set at\r\n105 kt, but this may be slightly too strong if the current\r\ndeterioration of the convective structure continues.  The initial\r\nwind radii are primarily based upon a 0518Z ASCAT-A scatterometer\r\npass.\r\n\r\nThe microwave imagery fixes allow for a fairly confident assessment\r\nof the initial position and motion of Amanda.  The hurricane is\r\nmoving toward the north-northwest - 340 degrees - at about 5 kt, due\r\nto the steering influence of an upper- to mid-level low to its\r\nnorthwest and a ridge to its northeast.  These features should\r\ncontinue to slowly advect Amanda toward the north or north-northeast\r\nfor the next three days or so, before a strong northeast-southwest\r\noriented ridge builds north of the tropical cyclone.  That ridge,\r\nalong with a weakening Amanda being steered by the low-level flow,\r\nshould result in Amanda turning to the southwest in the latter part\r\nof the forecast period.  The models are in generally good agreement\r\nwith this scenario, but differ some on when the turn occurs, and\r\nthus how far to the north Amanda reaches.  On the extremes, the GFS\r\nhas Amanda getting farthest to the north at 21N while the UKMET only\r\nhas the cyclone reaching 17N before the turn occurs.  The official\r\nforecast is a blend of the farther north TVCE variable consensus\r\ntechnique and the farther south previous official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe CIMSS analysis and the GFS-based SHIPS both indicate southerly\r\nvertical shear of about 20 kt affecting Amanda.  While the shear is\r\nanticipated to diminish quite a bit by all of the dynamical models\r\nin about two days, the moisture and instability should decrease\r\nsignificantly at the same time.  The dynamical models very quickly\r\nweaken Amanda, while the dynamical-statistical guidance shows more\r\ngradual weakening.  However, it appears that the SSTs being used in\r\nSHIPS/LGEM are biased high by about 1 degree C along the track of\r\nAmanda, which would suggest that these statistical techniques are\r\nsomewhat too strong. The official forecast is very similar to\r\nthe IVCN variable consensus model and the previous advisory.\r\nHowever, if current convective trends continue and the statistical\r\nmodels do indeed turn out to be biased high, then this forecast may\r\nbe conservative in how quickly Amanda falls apart.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 14.7N 112.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 15.2N 112.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 15.8N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 16.6N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 17.5N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 18.5N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 18.0N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Amanda","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-05-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda's cloud pattern has deteriorated in organization today.\r\nAlthough the cyclone is producing some very intense convection, the\r\nthunderstorms are not particularly well organized, and there is\r\nlittle evidence of banding features.  The current intensity\r\nestimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak\r\nestimate from NESDIS SAB - however, this may be generous.  The\r\nweakening of the hurricane may be partially due to its slow\r\nmovement, and the resultant upwelling of cooler ocean waters.\r\nAlthough the vertical shear is predicted to diminish over the next\r\nday or two, drier air and lower sea surface temperatures are\r\nlikely to induce continued weakening.  The official wind speed\r\nforecast is very close to the latest Decay-SHIPS and intensity\r\nmodel consensus guidance.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to plod north-northwestward at 4\r\nkt between a weak mid-level ridge to its northeast and a weak\r\ntrough to its northwest.  Steering currents are forecast to remain\r\nweak for the next several days, but most of the track models show\r\nthe tropical cyclone turning northward and then northeastward over\r\nthe next couple of days into a slight weakness in the ridge over\r\nnorthwestern Mexico.  Late in the forecast period, a northeast-\r\nsouthwest oriented ridge extending across the Baja California\r\npeninsula should cause Amanda to turn southwestward. The official\r\ntrack forecast is only slightly west of the previous one and close\r\nto the latest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 15.0N 112.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 15.6N 112.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 16.4N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 17.3N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 18.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 17.5N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-05-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE MAY 27 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda's cloud pattern continues to lose organization. Several\r\nmicrowave overpasses during the past 6 to 8 hours show that the\r\ncenter of the cyclone is exposed to the south of the nearest deep\r\nconvection and is located farther south than previous estimated.\r\nLate-afternoon visible imagery confirmed these findings, with\r\ngeostationary imagery also showing the convection warming and\r\nshrinking in coverage.  The degradation in organization has resulted\r\nin a significant decrease of satellite intensity estimates since\r\nthis afternoon.  The initial intensity is somewhat uncertain since\r\nthe Dvorak technique does not work well for rapidly weakening\r\ncyclones but is reduced to 60 kt based on a blend of T- and CI\r\nnumbers from TAFB and NESDIS SAB. Additional weakening is likely as\r\nsouth-southwesterly shear, the entrainment of drier and more stable\r\nair, and a cooler ocean surface take their toll on Amanda.  Even\r\nthough the shear is forecast to decrease in 24 to 36 hours, it\r\nappears that it will be too late for the cyclone to overcome the\r\ncombined effect of these negative factors for intensification.\r\nRemnant low status is now forecast in 72 hours, although it could\r\noccur sooner.  The official forecast is lower relative to the\r\nprevious one and near but a bit lower than a combination of the\r\nmulti-model consensus, Decay-SHIPS, and LGEM.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes suggest that the motion had been west-northwesterly\r\nthroughout the day, and the initial motion estimate is left of\r\nthe previous one or 305 degrees at 3 kt.  The cyclone remains\r\nembedded in a weak steering environment between a low- to mid-level\r\nridge to the east-northeast and a mid- to upper-level trough to the\r\nnorthwest.  This synoptic pattern should allow for a generally slow\r\nnorthward or north-northeastward motion for the next few days before\r\nAmanda degenerates into a remnant low and turns westward or\r\nsouthwestward.  Should Amanda weaken faster than forecast, little\r\nmotion is expected, and its remnants could turn eastward in an\r\nanomalous low-level westerly flow.  The official forecast is on the\r\nfar western side of the guidance envelope, and is much slower than\r\nthe previous forecast due primarily to the more southern initial\r\nposition.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 14.6N 112.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 15.0N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 15.8N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 16.5N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 17.0N 111.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 17.1N 111.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 16.8N 111.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-05-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014\r\n\r\nA 0457 UTC AMSU pass confirmed that Amanda is a sheared tropical\r\nstorm, with the low-level center displaced to the south of the deep\r\nconvection due to about 15 kt of southerly shear.  The convection\r\nitself increased beginning around 0100 UTC, and now the center is\r\nlocated beneath the cirrus canopy.  The initial intensity is held\r\nat 60 kt based mainly on SAB's Dvorak classification of T3.5/4.0\r\nusing a shear pattern.\r\n\r\nModest south to southwesterly shear is expected to continue\r\naffecting Amanda for the next 24-36 hours.  The shear could relax\r\nsomewhat after 36 hours, but Amanda will have moved into a less\r\nfavorable thermodynamic environment by that time.  Therefore,\r\ngradual weakening is expected, and Amanda is likely to degenerate to\r\na remnant low in about 3 days.  The NHC official forecast is\r\nunchanged from the previous advisory and is fairly close to the\r\nintensity consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nFixes based on microwave data indicate that Amanda's center began\r\nmeandering and drifting eastward during the past 12 hours.  The\r\ninitial motion is 050/2 kt, but that estimate is highly uncertain.\r\nThe steering pattern around Amanda is complicated at the moment.\r\nAn elongated mid-level ridge extends from the Four Corners region\r\nof the U.S. southeastward along the length of Mexico, while a broad\r\nmid-level trough covers much of the area west of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  These features should push Amanda slowly\r\nnortheastward during the next 48 hours while the cyclone still has\r\nsome vertical coherency.  Once it becomes a remnant low, Amanda\r\nwill be located in very weak low-level flow and will likely meander\r\nor drift southwestward on days 3 through 5.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is farther east than the previous forecast due to the\r\nrelocated initial position.  It is not, however, quite as far east\r\nas the GFS, ECMWF, or multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 14.6N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 15.0N 111.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 15.8N 110.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 16.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 17.2N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 17.0N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z 16.0N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 AM PDT WED MAY 28 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Amanda is producing a considerable amount of deep\r\nconvection, with cloud tops as cold as -85 C, the cloud pattern\r\nlacks organization.  Microwave images show that the\r\nlow-level center is located near the southern edge of the\r\nconvective area, indicative of the continued influence of\r\nsoutherly shear.  The latest Dvorak classifications have decreased\r\nslightly, and support lowering the initial wind speed to 55 kt.\r\n\r\nVertical cross sections from the GFS model show a pronounced south\r\nto north tilt of the vortex due to the shear.  Since the\r\nenvironmental winds are not expected to change much during the next\r\n24 hours, additional weakening is anticipated.  Even though the\r\nshear is forecast to lessen on Thursday, Amanda is expected to\r\ncontinue to lose strength due to dry air entrainment and lower sea\r\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast follows the trend in the guidance and calls for Amanda to\r\nbecome a remnant low in a few days.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving slowly northeastward in the flow\r\nbetween a trough to its west and a ridge to its east over Mexico.\r\nThis continued motion, with some increase in forward speed, is\r\nexpected during the next day or two.  After that time, however,\r\nAmanda is forecast to reverse its course and move slowly\r\nsouthwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of\r\nthe weakening system.  The NHC track forecast is close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus, and not too far from the previous\r\nofficial track forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 15.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 15.5N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 16.3N 110.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 17.1N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 17.5N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 17.0N 110.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z 16.0N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda continues to gradually lose strength.  Deep convection has\r\ndecreased in coverage during the last several hours, and the\r\ncloud tops are not as cold as they were this morning.  Dvorak\r\nFinal T-numbers were 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB,\r\nrespectively.  In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass at 1642 UTC showed\r\nmaximum reliable winds in the 45-50 kt range.  Based on these data,\r\nthe initial intensity is lowered slightly to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Amanda, which appeared somewhat elongated\r\nin the scatterometer pass, remains near the southern edge of the\r\nmain area of thunderstorms.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to\r\nabout 15 to 20 kt of south-southwesterly shear.  Slow weakening is\r\nexpected to remain the theme during the next few days due to the\r\ncombination of shear, dry air, and cooler water along the forecast\r\ntrack.  The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous\r\none and in line with most of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving a little faster to the northeast, with the\r\nlatest initial motion estimate being 035/7.  A mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough to the west of Amanda is expected to keep the cyclone moving\r\nnortheastward or north-northeastward during the next day or two.\r\nAfter that time, the weakening system is expected to reverse its\r\ncourse and turn southwestward when a low- to mid-level ridge builds\r\nto its north.  Only slight changes were made to the previous\r\nofficial track forecast and it lies fairly close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 15.8N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 16.3N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 16.9N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 17.6N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 16.7N 110.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud tops of Amanda have been warming during the past few\r\nhours with almost no deep convection near the center.  Although a\r\nwell-defined mid-level center is apparent on the latest satellite\r\nimagery, this feature is well to the northeast of the low-level\r\ncirculation as indicated by ASCAT data and a recent SSMI/S pass.\r\nBased on the current satellite trends, the initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 40 kt, a bit below the recent Dvorak estimates.\r\n\r\nThe microwave data show that Amanda is moving to the northeast at a\r\nlittle slower pace of about 5 kt.  This motion should continue on\r\nThursday ahead of a mid-level trough.  This trough is expected to\r\nmoving away from Amanda by Friday, which would leave the storm in\r\nlight steering currents.  After that time, the weakened storm will\r\nprobably turn to the west and west-southwest as a low- to mid-level\r\nridge builds over the eastern Pacific.  There have not been any\r\nsignificant changes to the guidance, and the latest NHC forecast is\r\nvery close to the previous one.\r\n\r\nAmanda should continue to weaken for the next couple of days due to\r\nmoderate shear, dry air aloft and marginal SSTs.  While the shear is\r\nforecast to weaken some in a day or so, the storm will likely have\r\nentrained a significant amount of dry air by then, and it probably\r\nwon't be able to take advantage of the decreased shear.  The cyclone\r\nshould become a remnant low in a couple of days due to these\r\nmarginal environment conditions. Most of the guidance shows steady\r\nweakening and the official NHC prediction follows suit, at or below\r\nthe intensity consensus throughout the period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 16.3N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 16.7N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 17.2N 109.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.5N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 17.6N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 16.5N 111.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Amanda","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014\r\n\r\nAmanda has come unglued during the past few hours, with the\r\nremaining deep convection now located more than 2 degrees to the\r\nnortheast of the low-level center. This weakening appears to be due\r\nto the usually potent combination of vertical wind shear and mid/\r\nupper-level dry air advecting over the cyclone. The initial\r\nintensity is decreased to 35 kt based on the degradation in the\r\nsatellite presentation and is a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T\r\nand CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nWhile the SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over Amanda during\r\nthe next day or two, the thermodynamic environment continues to\r\nworsen. Therefore, it seems unlikely that Amanda will be able to\r\nrestrengthen. The NHC forecast continues to show a weakening trend\r\nand is close to the intensity consensus. Remnant low status is\r\nforecast in 36 hours, although this could occur sooner, with\r\ndissipation expected in 4 or 5 days.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave imagery and multi-channel IR imagery suggest that\r\nthe low-level center is exposed to the southwest of the remaining\r\nconvection and that the center may be elongating. The initial motion\r\nestimate is a rather uncertain 045/05, but it does appear that\r\nAmanda has been moving a little to the left of the previous forecast\r\ntrack. The bulk of the dynamical guidance shows Amanda turning\r\ntoward the east-northeast and slowing down later today as an\r\nupper-level trough passes by to the north. By Friday, the guidance\r\nsuggests a slow eastward motion, followed by a westward turn in 72\r\nhours as Amanda becomes a shallow cyclone and is steered more by\r\nthe low-level flow. The new NHC track is a blend of the previous\r\nforecast adjusted for the initial position and motion and the latest\r\nguidance, and lies north of a blend of the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 16.8N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 17.1N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 17.4N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 17.5N 109.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 17.3N 109.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 110.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Amanda","Adv":28,"Date":"2014-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n800 AM PDT THU MAY 29 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Amanda has been deteriorating during\r\nthe last several hours.  The remaining deep convection is confined\r\nto a band that is about 150 n mi from the center, and even that\r\nfeature lacks curvature.  Dvorak classifications continue to\r\ndecrease, and on that basis, Amanda is downgraded to a tropical\r\ndepression with an initial intensity of 30 kt.  Continued weakening\r\nis forecast, and Amanda will likely become a remnant low in about a\r\nday or sooner.  Dissipation is predicted to occur in about 4 days,\r\nfollowing the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Amanda had been difficult to find\r\novernight, but recent microwave and visible images indicate that it\r\nis located to the south of the previous estimate.  In addition, the\r\ncenter itself has become increasingly elongated and diffuse.  The\r\ndepression, or its remnant low, is expected to move eastward or\r\neast-northeastward at a decreasing pace for the next 24 to 36 hours.\r\nBeyond that time, whatever is left of Amanda should turn\r\nsouthwestward when it is steered by a building low- to mid-level\r\nridge to its north.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted\r\nsouthward mainly to account for the adjusted initial position.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 16.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 16.5N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 16.6N 108.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 16.6N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 16.7N 108.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 16.1N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Amanda","Adv":29,"Date":"2014-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP012014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AMANDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012014\r\n200 PM PDT THU MAY 29 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the low-level center of Amanda has\r\nbecome diffuse and could be opening up into a trough.  In addition,\r\norganized deep convection has been absent near the center of\r\ncirculation for most of the day.  Therefore, Amanda is now declared\r\na remnant low, and this is the last advisory on this system issued\r\nby the National Hurricane Center.\r\n\r\nThe remnant low is moving eastward at about 7 kt.  The weak cyclone\r\nis expected to slow down and become nearly stationary on Thursday,\r\nbefore turning southwestward on Friday.  Dissipation is expected to\r\noccur in 3 to 4 days, following the guidance of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 16.2N 109.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 16.5N 108.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 16.8N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 16.8N 108.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 16.7N 108.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 16.0N 109.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-06-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014\r\n\r\nThe low pressure area located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec\r\nhas acquired enough organized deep convection to be classified as a\r\ntropical depression.  The initial intensity is set at 25 kt, which\r\nis based Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a ship\r\nobservation within the eastern portion of the circulation.\r\nEnvironmental conditions, consisting of low vertical wind shear and\r\nwarm sea surface temperatures, favor intensification during the next\r\nfew days.  The primary limiting factors are likely to be the\r\nlarge and sprawling structure of the cyclone and interaction\r\nwith land later in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 330 degrees at 3\r\nkt. The depression is forecast to move slowly northwestward to\r\nnorthward between a mid to upper-level ridge over the\r\nwest-central Caribbean Sea and a mid- to upper-level trough\r\nextending southwestward across the western Gulf of Mexico.  While\r\nmost of the global models agree on a general northwestward to\r\nnorthward motion during the next several days, there are large\r\ndifferences in the forward speed of the cyclone, and how soon\r\nthe center nears the coast in the model predictions. The GFS shows a\r\nfaster motion and brings the cyclone to the coast within 2 to 3\r\ndays.  On the other hand, the ECMWF keeps the depression offshore\r\nfor more than 5 days.  The NHC forecast generally lies between these\r\nscenarios and shows a slow motion toward the coast of the Gulf\r\nof Tehuantepec.  Due to the high amount of uncertainty on the\r\ntiming of the approach to southern Mexico, a tropical storm watch\r\nhas been issued for a portion of the coast of southeastern  Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 13.1N  94.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 13.5N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 14.0N  95.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 14.5N  95.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 15.0N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 15.3N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 15.6N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 16.0N  95.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-06-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 02 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become slightly better\r\norganized, with a more prominent banding feature over the eastern\r\nsemicircle of the circulation, and water vapor imagery shows an\r\nupper-level outflow anticyclone becoming established over the\r\ndepression.  Based on ship reports and a Dvorak intensity estimate\r\nfrom TAFB, the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.  The tropical\r\ncyclone should remain in a low-shear environment, and the main\r\nimpediments to strengthening appear to be the lack of a well-defined\r\ninner core and the proximity to land.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the latest LGEM guidance and the previous\r\nofficial forecast.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center is not easy to locate, geostationary and\r\nmicrowave satellite data suggest that is a little farther north than\r\nthe previous estimates.  The initial motion estimate is a rather\r\nuncertain 330 degrees at 4 kt.  Steering currents are not very\r\nwell-defined, but the cyclone is expected to move generally\r\nnorthward in the flow on the western side of a mid-level ridge\r\nextending from the Caribbean Sea westward into Central America.\r\nThe latest GFS deterministic and ensemble mean, and the HWRF model\r\npredictions are now in fairly good agreement that the center will be\r\nclose to the coast in about 36 hours.  The earlier ECMWF model run\r\nkept the cyclone well offshore through the forecast period.  The\r\nECMWF usually provides excellent guidance, but given the good\r\nagreement among the NCEP models it is felt that the most prudent\r\ncourse of action is to lean toward the latter models.  Therefore,\r\nthe official forecast brings the tropical cyclone to the coast\r\nsomewhat sooner than the previous NHC track.  This requires changing\r\nthe tropical storm watch to a warning for the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nAlthough some strengthening of the cyclone is anticipated during\r\nthe next day or so, the main threat from this system is likely to\r\ncome from very heavy rains, particularly near regions of high\r\nterrain.  This should result in significant and dangerous flooding\r\nand mud slides.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 13.8N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 14.3N  94.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 14.9N  94.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 15.4N  94.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 15.8N  94.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 16.1N  94.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 16.2N  94.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  08/0000Z 16.5N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-06-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the depression has not become any\r\nbetter organized during the past several hours. The cloud\r\npattern has become elongated and is possible that the\r\nlow-level center is on the southern edge of the convection due to\r\nwind shear. This is supported by a 0600 UTC TRMM pass which\r\nshows what appears to be a center located south of the\r\nthunderstorm activity. Dvorak intensity estimates from both\r\nTAFB and SAB suggest that winds remain at 30 knots. There is still\r\nan opportunity for the depression to reach tropical storm status\r\nlater today before the circulation becomes even more involved with\r\nland. A large portion of the convection is already over Mexico as we\r\nspeak. This convection is probably associated with a mid-level\r\ncirculation which is becoming detached from the low-level center.\r\n\r\nAlthough the low-level center is difficult to locate, the best\r\nestimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 350 degrees\r\nat 5 knots. There has been a significant change in the models\r\nin the last run, and now there is more agreement among them. The\r\nECMWF which in previous runs kept the cyclone meandering south of\r\nMexico is now in tune with the GFS and the HWRF.  These three\r\nreliable models are moving the cyclone northward over Mexico a\r\nlittle bit faster. On this basis, the official forecast has been\r\nadjusted to reflect this change in the models, but the confidence is\r\nlow. This solution is very close to the multimodel consensus.\r\n\r\nIf the circulation moves inland, as anticipated, weakening over the\r\nhigh terrain is expected. However, the main threat of very heavy\r\nrains will continue, particularly near regions of high terrain.\r\nThis should result in significant and dangerous flooding and mud\r\nslides.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 14.4N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 15.2N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 16.2N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 17.0N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 17.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 18.0N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-06-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe depression is not particularly well organized this morning with\r\nmicrowave and visible images suggesting that multiple low-level\r\ncenters are rotating within the circulation envelope.  A mean of\r\nthese swirls suggest the center is on the south side of a burst of\r\nconvection.  Despite satellite intensity estimates of tropical-storm\r\nstrength, the lack of the low-level organization leads me to believe\r\nthe system is still a depression, and 30 kt will stay the initial\r\nintensity.  Some strengthening is possible before landfall in a day\r\nor so, although significant strengthening is not expected due to\r\nland interaction and the poor initial structure.  The new NHC\r\nprediction is the same as the previous one, a bit above most of the\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nBest estimate of initial motion is north at 4 kt.  A mid- to\r\nupper-level low west of the depression should generally provide a\r\nsoutherly steering for the next couple of days.  The model\r\nguidance, however, is really struggling for this system with some\r\nreliable models again showing the cyclone south of Mexico for 5\r\ndays.  The interaction of the depression, upper-low, and a weak\r\nsystem over the Bay of Campeche is really producing a complicated\r\nscenario.  The official NHC forecast is just a little slower and\r\nleft of the previous one, but is highly uncertain.\r\n\r\nRegardless of where the center is or the exact track, the main story\r\nis the potential for extreme flooding over southeastern Mexico\r\nduring the next couple of days.  30 inches (750 mm) of rain or more\r\nare possible in the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, which will likely\r\ncause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, especially in\r\nareas of mountaineous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 14.6N  94.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 15.2N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 15.8N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 16.4N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 17.0N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 18.0N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-06-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough the satellite presentation of the tropical cyclone has\r\ndegraded during the past few hours, a couple of ASCAT passes\r\nat 1524 and 1618 UTC detected winds of 34 to 37 kt over the\r\nnortheastern portion of the circulation.  Based on the ASCAT\r\ndata, the system was upgraded to a tropical storm on the 1800 UTC\r\nIntermediate Public Advisory.  The initial intensity remains 35 kt,\r\nhowever, additional strengthening is not anticipated since a large\r\nportion of the circulation is already interacting with land.  Boris\r\nshould steadily weaken after landfall, and the low-level\r\ncirculation is expected to dissipate over the mountains of southern\r\nMexico in a couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains northward at about 4 kt.  Boris\r\nshould continue moving slowly northward around the eastern side of\r\na mid- to upper-level trough over Mexico.  The model guidance is in\r\nsomewhat better agreement on taking the system inland over southern\r\nMexico within the next 24 to 48 hours.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and is near the TVCE\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Boris continues to be very heavy rainfall\r\nand the resultant flooding over southeastern Mexico during the next\r\ncouple of days.  Rainfall totals could approach 30 inches (750 mm)\r\nin the states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, which will likely cause\r\nlife-threatening flash floods and mud slides in areas of mountainous\r\nterrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 14.9N  94.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 15.4N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 16.0N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 16.5N  93.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 17.0N  93.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Boris","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-06-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 03 2014\r\n\r\nBoris has a rather disorganized appearance on satellite imagery,\r\nand consists of a couple of clusters of very deep convection near\r\nthe coastline.  Although it is questionable as to whether the\r\ncyclone is still a tropical storm, the current intensity is\r\nmaintained at 35 kt as a precaution since the convection is still\r\nstrong.  This is also in agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity\r\nestimate from TAFB.  The cyclone will weaken after crossing the\r\ncoastline, presumably in a few hours, and the surface circulation is\r\nexpected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southeastern\r\nMexico in 36 hours - if not sooner.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center has been very difficult to locate on\r\ngeostationary imagery, an AMSR2 microwave image from earlier today\r\nprovided a fairly good center fix.  This enabled some adjustments\r\nto the working best track of Boris, and extrapolation into this\r\nevening suggests that the storm has moved closer to the coast than\r\nearlier estimated.  The cyclone should continue to move slowly\r\nnorthward on the western side of a mid-level ridge that extends\r\nwestward from an anticyclone centered over the western Caribbean\r\nSea.  The official forecast track is a little faster than the\r\nprevious one, and moves the center of Boris over southeastern\r\nMexico over the next day or so.  This is close to the latest\r\ndynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nAs the weakening tropical cyclone moves inland, it is likely to\r\ncontinue to produce very heavy rainfall.  These rains will cause\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding and mud slides over the mountainous\r\nregions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas over the next\r\ncouple of days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 15.7N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 16.3N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 16.8N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 17.4N  93.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-06-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014\r\n\r\nThe center or area of minimum pressure associated with Boris\r\napparently crossed the coast of Chiapas, Mexico near the city of\r\nTonala around 06 UTC. Since that time, satellite images and surface\r\nobservations indicate that the alleged center is rapidly losing\r\ndefinition, and it is taking the appearance of an elongated\r\nnorth-south trough of low pressure. I would not be surprised if\r\nthere are a couple of centers of circulation along such trough. I\r\nwas tempted to declare Boris a remnant low, but I would rather wait\r\nfor early morning visible images and keep the system as a tropical\r\ndepression at this time.\r\n\r\nThe depression appears to be moving northward or 360 degrees at 5\r\nknots. Most of the guidance suggests that Boris or its remnants will\r\ncontinue on this slow track over the high terrain of southeastern\r\nMexico and dissipate later today.\r\n\r\nBoris or its remnants, in combination with a trough of low pressure\r\nin the Bay of Campeche will continue to produce very heavy rainfall.\r\nThese rains will cause life-threatening flash flooding and mud\r\nslides over the mountainous regions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca\r\nand Chiapas over the next couple of days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 16.2N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 17.0N  93.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 18.0N  93.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Boris","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-06-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 04 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images and surface observations suggest that Boris\r\nhas not moved much this morning with a large increase of convection\r\nnear and south of the apparent center.  Since surface observations\r\nare inconclusive on whether a well-defined center still exists, it\r\nis best to keep advisories going for one more cycle.  It is likely\r\nthat Boris will dissipate later today while it moves slowly\r\nnorthward and becomes a part of a large trough of low pressure\r\nextending from across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec northward into the\r\nBay of Campeche.\r\n\r\nBoris or its remnants, in combination with a trough of low pressure\r\nover the Bay of Campeche, will continue to produce very heavy\r\nrainfall.  These rains will cause life-threatening flash floods and\r\nmud slides over the mountainous regions of the Mexican states of\r\nOaxaca, Chiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco over the next couple of days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 16.3N  94.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 16.8N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Boris","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-06-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP022014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022014\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 04 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images and surface observations show that\r\nBoris has degenerated into a trough of low pressure.  Thus, this is\r\nthe last advisory on this system. The remnants of Boris should move\r\nslowly northward and become part of a large trough of low pressure\r\nextending from across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec northward into the\r\nBay of Campeche.\r\n\r\nThe remnants of this system, in combination with the Bay of Campeche\r\ntrough, will continue to produce very heavy rainfall during the\r\nnext couple of days.  These rains will likely cause life-threatening\r\nflash floods and mudslides across the Mexican states of Oaxaca,\r\nChiapas, Veracruz and Tabasco, especially over mountainous regions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 16.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS OF BORIS\r\n 12H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-06-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with an area of low pressure to the\r\nsouthwest of Mexico has become much better organized during the\r\npast 12 hours, and 1554 UTC and 1640 UTC ASCAT-B and ASCAT-A\r\noverpasses, respectively, indicated that the system had\r\nuncontaminated surface winds of 30-32 kt in the northeast quadrant.\r\nTherefore, advisories are being initiated on the third tropical\r\ndepression of the eastern North Pacific season.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 30 kt based on the ASCAT data and satellite\r\nestimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt, based\r\nprimarily on microwave satellite data and ASCAT wind data.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer subtropical\r\nridge that extends westward from northern Mexico to Baja California\r\nand into the eastern Pacific. The global and regional models are in\r\nexcellent agreement on a westward to west-northwestward motion\r\nthroughout the forecast period, and the official forecast track is\r\nsimilar to but slightly faster the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nAlthough the cloud structure of the depression has improved markedly\r\nin visible imagery since this morning, several microwave images\r\nindicate that the low-level and mid-level circulations are not yet\r\njuxtaposed. Furthermore, ASCAT wind data suggest that the low-level\r\ncirculation is slightly elongated east-west, and a pronounced dry\r\nslot coming off of the mountains of Mexico is also evident in\r\nvisible and microwave satellite data in the western semicircle. As a\r\nresult, only gradual rather than rapid strengthening is forecast for\r\nthe next 24-48 hours while the cyclone remains over warm water\r\nand in a low environmental wind shear. By 96 hours, cooler SSTs less\r\nthan 26C, increasing southwesterly shear, and drier mid-level air\r\nare expected to produce steady weakening. The official intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the intensity consensus model ICON.\r\n\r\nGiven the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the\r\nGovernment of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or\r\nwarnings along the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 15.4N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 15.5N 102.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 15.6N 103.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 15.7N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 15.9N 106.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 16.6N 109.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-06-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 09 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough the intensity of the deep convection has not changed\r\nsignificantly during the last several hours, the cyclone has better\r\ndefined features with thunderstorms consolidating near the center\r\nand fragmented bands to the east and west of the center.  The\r\ninitial intensity estimate is 35 kt, based on a Dvorak\r\nclassification from TAFB, making the cyclone Tropical Storm\r\nCristina.\r\n\r\nCristina has a few days to gain additional strength while the\r\nenvironmental factors remain generally favorable, and the models are\r\nin fairly good agreement in showing Cristina being at or near\r\nhurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours.  Beyond a few days, the system\r\nis expected to move into a drier airmass with stronger southwesterly\r\nshear, and over marginal sea surface temperatures.  These conditions\r\nshould end the strengthening phase, and ultimately cause Cristina to\r\nweaken.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity\r\nconsensus model IVCN for the first 3 days of the forecast period,\r\nand then lies lower than consensus closer to the LGEM guidance at\r\ndays 4 and 5 when environmental conditions are expected to become\r\nmore hostile.\r\n\r\nThe storm had been drifting northwestward most of the day, but the\r\nlatest satellite images suggest that Cristina is likely now\r\nmoving slowly westward.  This westward turn is in response to a\r\nbuilding mid-level ridge to the northwest of the storm, and that\r\nfeature should keep Cristina on a westward to west-northwestward\r\npath away from the coast of Mexico during the next several days.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is close to the previous one in the short\r\nterm, and then is nudged northward trending toward the latest\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nGiven the forecast track and size of the tropical cyclone, the\r\nGovernment of Mexico does not anticipate the need for any watches or\r\nwarnings along the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 15.5N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 15.5N 102.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 15.5N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 16.0N 106.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 17.0N 109.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 18.1N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-06-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014\r\n\r\nThunderstorm activity associated with Cristina has decreased in\r\ncoverage and intensity since the evening diurnal convective\r\nminimum.  Inner core convection has also become less organized,\r\nand banding is now less defined. A 0348 UTC ASCAT overpass showed\r\naround 30 kt winds, and a blend of satellite intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB is slightly lower than six hours ago.  The\r\ninitial intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity from the\r\nprevious advisory, though this may be a bit generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a slow 275/03.  The track forecast is\r\ngenerally straightforward. Cristina is about to move out of a weak\r\nsteering environment and move westward under the influence of a\r\nbuilding mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico at a faster\r\nforward speed.  By 48 hours...the cyclone is expected to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward when it reaches the western end of the same mid-level\r\nridge.  The NHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and\r\nthe GFS solution but not as far left as the ECMWF.\r\n\r\nUW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model output indicate light to\r\nmoderate northerly shear currently over the cyclone which could be\r\ninterrupting further development.  However, global models show\r\nCristina moving into a moist and generally light shear environment\r\nwhile moving over warm waters during the next couple of days, all of\r\nwhich should promote intensification to hurricane strength.  In\r\nabout 48 hours, the cyclone should begin to ingest a pool of drier\r\nand more stable air to the west which should bring an end to any\r\nfurther strengthening.  An even drier and more stable environment,\r\nan increase in southwesterly shear, and marginally warm waters\r\nlate in the forecast period should contribute to a weakening trend.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is below the previous one, close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus through 72 hours but near the LGEM beyond\r\nthat time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 15.6N 102.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 15.6N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.7N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 16.1N 107.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 17.3N 109.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 18.4N 112.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-06-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014\r\n\r\nInner-core thunderstorm activity has increased during the past\r\nseveral hours and two overnight ASCAT passes indicate that the\r\nradius of maximum winds has contracted down to about 25 nmi, which\r\nis more than a 50 percent decrease from this time yesterday. The\r\nadvisory intensity estimate of 40 kt is based on a blend of\r\nsatellite intensity estimates of T2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMSS, T2.5/35\r\nkt from TAFB, and T2.0/30 kt from SAB, plus the appearance of a\r\npartial mid-level eye noted in 1237 UTC TRMM microwave imagery.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/04 kt.  Both the track forecast\r\nand reasoning remain unchanged. Cristina appears to have begun to\r\nmove out of a region of weak steering currents, and the cyclone is\r\nexpected to move steadily westward along the southern periphery of\r\na building deep-layer subtropical ridge located to its north. On\r\nDay 2, the cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward at a\r\nfaster forward speed as Cristina strengthens and becomes a more\r\nvertically deep system that will be influenced by stronger\r\ndeep-layer easterly steering flow. The NHC track forecast is\r\nessentially just an update of the previous advisory track, and\r\nfollows the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nA large nocturnal thunderstorm complex that developed over central\r\nMexico has ejected a large band of southward-moving cirrus outflow\r\nthat appears to have temporarily increased the northerly shear\r\nacross Cristina overnight. However, that thunderstorm complex\r\nhas dissipated and water vapor imagery and satellite-derived winds\r\nindicate that the upper-level shear has abated over the past\r\nseveral hours. As a result, the environmental shear is forecast by\r\nthe SHIPS model to weaken today and continue to decrease through\r\nat least the 72-hour period.  This should allow for Cristina to\r\ngradually strengthen despite being embedded within a relatively dry\r\nmid-level moisture environment. By 96 hours and beyond, the cyclone\r\nis forecast to move into a thermodynamically unfavorable\r\nenvironment, over SSTs cooler than 26C, and encounter increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear, a combination that should induce gradual to\r\npossible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory and follows the multi-model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 15.5N 102.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.6N 103.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.7N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.9N 106.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 16.4N 107.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 17.7N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 18.8N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 19.8N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-06-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough inner-core thunderstorm activity has increased at times\r\nsince the previous advisory, it has been unable to persist as a\r\ncentral dense overcast feature due to entrainment of dry mid-level\r\nair. The result is that Cristina looks much better in visible\r\nimagery than it does in IR data, and this is mainly due to the cloud\r\npattern being comprised of mostly dissipating cirrus clouds. Having\r\nsaid that, microwave and conventional satellite imagery have been\r\nhinting at the formation of a 30 nmi diameter eye-like feature\r\nduring the past several hours, but the cyclone has thus far been\r\nunable to sustain that development trend owing to the aforementioned\r\ndry air intrusions. The advisory intensity of 45 kt is based on a\r\nblend of satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from both TAFB\r\nand UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 270/04 kt. Cristina is expected\r\nto continue moving generally westward and accompanied by a gradual\r\nincrease in forward speed as the cyclone comes under increasing\r\ninfluence from a strengthening subtropical ridge that extends\r\nwestward from northern Mexico to west of Baja California. By 48\r\nhours, Cristina is forecast to turn west-northwestward around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of the ridge, and that motion is expected to\r\ncontinue through Day 5. The NHC track forecast is just an update of\r\nthe previous advisory track, and lies south and west of the\r\nconsensus model TVCE due to the GFDL model having a sharp\r\nright-of-track bias from the outset of the forecast.\r\n\r\nUpper-level shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt during\r\nthe next 72 hours while Cristina remains over SSTs warmer than 28C.\r\nThis should allow the cyclone to at least gradually strengthen for\r\nthe next 24 hours or so despite the occasional dry air intrusions\r\nthat will disrupt the inner core convection and the intensification\r\nprocess. However, if Cristina can somehow manage to close off an\r\neye despite the relatively dry mid-level environment, then rapid\r\nstrengthening during the next 24 hours or so would likely occur in\r\nsuch a low vertical wind shear regime. By 96 hours and beyond, the\r\ncombination of much cooler sea-surface temperatures, drier and more\r\nstable air, and increasing southwesterly wind shear should produce\r\ngradual to possible rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and follows the consensus intensity\r\nmodels IVCN and ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 15.5N 103.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 15.6N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 15.8N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 16.1N 107.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 16.7N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 18.1N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 19.2N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 20.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-06-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 10 2014\r\n\r\nCristina is intensifying this evening.  The compact central dense\r\novercast has become more circular, and hints of an eye have been\r\napparent in geostationary satellite images.  The initial\r\nintensity is increased to 55 kt, in agreement with unanimous Dvorak\r\nclassifications of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nAlthough the curved bands beyond the inner-core region remain\r\nfragmented, a considerable amount of lightning has been occurring\r\nin a rain band located about 120 n mi to the south-southwest of the\r\ncenter.  Recent research has documented that lightning in the\r\nouter bands of the tropical cyclone circulation is often a precursor\r\nof significant intensification.  The only apparent factor that could\r\nlimit strengthening during the next couple of days is mid-level dry\r\nair, which has been an issue for Cristina during the past day or so.\r\nIn about 3 days, Cristina is expected to move into an environment of\r\nstronger southwesterly shear and over cooler waters, which should\r\nend the strengthening trend and cause the cyclone to weaken.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and\r\nis pretty close to the intensity model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nCristina has wobbled a little south of due west during the past 6\r\nhours, and the latest initial motion estimate is 265/5.  A westward\r\nto west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so\r\nwhile the cyclone remains on the south side of a mid-level ridge\r\nover northwestern Mexico.  After that time, a turn to the northwest\r\nis predicted when the ridge weakens and shifts eastward.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is an update of the previous one, and close to a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.2N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 15.4N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 15.8N 106.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 16.5N 107.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 17.2N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 18.7N 111.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 19.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-06-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014\r\n\r\nCristina continues to intensify.  The cyclone consists of a small\r\ncentral dense overcast in geostationary satellite imagery with\r\ncold-topped convection to -80C in the northern semicircle. There\r\nhave been faint hints of eye or warm spot during the past several\r\nhours, and a 0329 UTC TRMM overpass showed a closed low- to mid-\r\nlevel ring of convection surrounding the center.  Satellite\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB supported an intensity of 60 kt at\r\nsynoptic time.  However, the initial intensity estimate is increased\r\nto 65 kt, based on UW-CIMSS ADT values now to 4.5/77 kt and the\r\npersistence of an eye feature that has warmed slightly and become\r\nbetter defined.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been moving south of due west in response to a\r\nstrong mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico, but the heading\r\nappears to have recently become more westerly.  The ridge is\r\nforecast to either remain in place or shift slightly eastward during\r\nthe next few days, which should cause the track of Cristina to\r\ngradually bend west-northwestward. The track guidance is in\r\ngenerally good agreement on this scenario, but small differences\r\nin the location of the ridge over Mexico lead to slightly different\r\nmotion headings.  The ECMWF maintains the center of the ridge a bit\r\nto the west of the GFS and other models, resulting in a solution on\r\nthe southern side of the guidance envelope. The NHC track forecast\r\nis adjusted a hair to the left of the previous one in the direction\r\nof the ECMWF, which has continued to correctly forecast a more\r\nsouthern track.\r\n\r\nThe environment in which Cristina is embedded remains ideal for\r\nintensification.  The cyclone is located underneath a mid- to upper-\r\nlevel ridge axis and over very warm waters.  The inner core\r\nstructure has also become better defined, with the closed ring\r\nseen in microwave imagery signaling that rapid intensification is\r\na possibility.  The NHC forecast is adjusted upward in the short\r\nterm based on current trends, and thee is some potential for\r\nCristina to become stronger than forecast. In about 60 hours,\r\nCristina should encounter increasing southwesterly shear associated\r\nwith an upper-level trough extending southwestward from California\r\ncoast and should reach markedly cooler waters in about 4 days.  This\r\nshould result in a pronounced weakening trend at the end of the\r\nforecast period and perhaps a quick demise.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to the multi-model consensus through 72 hours and\r\nnear the LGEM after that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 15.2N 104.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 15.3N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 15.7N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 16.4N 108.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 17.2N 109.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 18.6N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 19.2N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 19.6N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-06-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 11 2014\r\n\r\nAfter an overnight period of strengthening, conventional and\r\nmicrowave satellite imagery suggest that Cristina's intensity has\r\nleveled off. Recent SSMI/S and TRMM overpasses indicated a low-\r\nlevel eye feature, but the mid-level eye is no longer evident. The\r\ncyclone again appears to have ingested dry mid-level air, which has\r\neroded the convection in the western semicircle. The initial\r\nintensity of 65 kt is based on consensus Dvorak satellite intensity\r\nestimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nAfter a brief jog to the west-southwest, Cristina appears to have\r\nresumed a westerly motion of 275/05 kt. Other than to make just a\r\ntad right-of-track adjustment due to the initial position, the NHC\r\nofficial forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory\r\ntrack. Cristina is expected to move westward today, followed by a\r\nwest-northwestward motion around the southwestern periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer ridge in the 24- to 72-hour period, a scenario which\r\nmost of the reliable models strongly agree on. After that, however,\r\nthe models diverge significantly with the GFS, GFS Ensemble, NAVGEM,\r\nHWRF, and GFDL models taking a stronger Cristina more northward,\r\nwhereas the ECMWF and UKMET weaken the cyclone fairly quickly and\r\nmove it more westward. Given that the official intensity forecast is\r\ncalling for a weaker and smaller tropical cyclone by 96 and 120\r\nhours, the official forecast at those times is roughly an average of\r\nthe ECMWF and GFS models, which shows a weaker and more vertically\r\nshallow cyclone moving west-northward to westward.\r\n\r\nCristina has consistently been intensifying at night during the\r\nconvective maximum period, which seems likely to continue for\r\nanother 24-48 hours. However, the cyclone will still be battling\r\noccasional intrusions of dry mid-level air for the remainder of the\r\nforecast period, especially after 72 hours, so only gradual\r\nintensification is expected. After day 3, increasing southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear and SSTs cooler than 26C are expected to induce\r\nsteady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory, and closely follows the consensus intensity\r\nmodel ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 15.4N 104.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 15.7N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 16.2N 107.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 16.9N 108.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 17.7N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 19.0N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 19.5N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 19.9N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014\r\n\r\nAn intermittent eye feature has been noted in both conventional and\r\nmicrowave satellite imagery today, and Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nhave steadily increased as a result. However, a 1653 UTC AMSU pass\r\nindicated that the 15-20 nmi diameter eyewall was open to the east\r\nand that it was completely detached from any convective bands,\r\nsuggesting that the hurricane is probably not quite as strong as the\r\nT4.5 satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are indicating.\r\nTherefore, the initial intensity estimate is set to 70 kt.\r\n\r\nCristina is now moving at a fairly steady motion of 280/05 kt. The\r\nmodel guidance remains consistent on the hurricane moving westward\r\nthrough tonight, followed by a west-northwestward motion beginning\r\non Thursday and continuing through 72 hours. After that, a\r\nweakening Cristina is forecast to turn more westward as the cyclone\r\ngradually becomes more vertically shallow as it encounters\r\nunfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, and gets steered\r\nby the low-level easterly flow on the south side of broad ridge of\r\nhigh pressure. Although the new model tracks still diverge\r\nsignificantly at Days 4 and 5, the GFS and GFS-Ensemble models have\r\nnudged their tracks a little farther west and closer to the\r\nprevious NHC forecast. As a result, the official forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and remains a little to the left of the\r\nconsensus model TCVE due to the right-bias of the GFDL-member.\r\n\r\nIntermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air should continue to\r\ninterrupt the development of persistent eyewall convection for the\r\nnext 36 hours or so. However, given that Cristina will still be over\r\nnear 29C SSTs and in an extremely low shear environment, those\r\nconditions should allow for at least gradual strengthening during\r\nthat time. Around 72 hours or so, environmental and oceanic\r\nconditions are expected to become increasingly unfavorable, which\r\nshould combine to produce steady weakening, especially by 96 hours\r\nand beyond.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 15.6N 105.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 16.0N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 16.6N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 17.3N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 18.1N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 19.1N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 19.5N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 19.9N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-06-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 11 2014\r\n\r\nCristina continues to gain strength.  The eye has become more\r\ndistinct in recent satellite images, and cloud tops surrounding\r\nthe center have cooled.  In addition, the overall cloud pattern\r\nappears more symmetric than earlier this afternoon with better\r\norganized banding features.  Dvorak classifications were 4.5/77 kt\r\nfrom both TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC.  Since that time, the eye has\r\nbecome surrounded by white cloud tops on the Dvorak IR curve, which\r\nsuggests that Cristina's winds have increased to at least 85 kt.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane still has another day or so to gain additional\r\nstrength, since the vertical shear is expected to remain quite low\r\nwhile Cristina lies over warm 29 C waters.  In 2 to 3 days, the\r\nenvironment is expected to become less favorable as the cyclone\r\nbegins to move over cooler water and into westerly shear.  These\r\nhostile conditions should cause weakening, and Cristina is expected\r\nto become a remnant low in about 5 days.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is a little higher than the previous one in the short term\r\nto account for the observed strengthening trend, but is otherwise\r\nunchanged.\r\n\r\nThe eye of the hurricane has been wobbling, but a smooth initial\r\nmotion estimate is 290/5.  A slightly faster west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion is forecast during the next few days while\r\nCristina moves along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high\r\npressure system.  By the end of the forecast period, the weakening\r\nstorm is expected to turn back toward the west steered by the\r\nlow-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is nudged to the north of\r\nthe previous one trending toward the latest GFS and ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 16.0N 105.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 16.4N 106.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 17.1N 108.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 17.9N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 18.7N 110.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 19.6N 112.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 20.2N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 20.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-06-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Cristina has rapidly intensified\r\nduring the past several hours.  Convection around the center has\r\nbecome more intense and symmetric, with the eye also becoming better\r\ndefined and warmer.  Dvorak estimates range from 102-112 kt, and 105\r\nkt is chosen as the initial wind speed.  Cirrus clouds approaching\r\nthe storm from the southwest suggest an increase in shear is coming\r\nsooner rather than later, so only a small intensification is\r\npredicted today.  A weakening trend should begin on Friday due to\r\nincreasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters, with Cristina\r\nlikely transitioning into a remnant low over the cool eastern\r\nPacific waters by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is higher than\r\nthe previous one in the short term to account for the initial\r\nintensity, but is otherwise unchanged beyond 36 hours.\r\n\r\nCristina is moving at 295/7 around the southern periphery of a\r\nmid-level high over Mexico.  A west-northwestward to northwestward\r\nmotion is forecast during the next few days while the hurricane\r\nremains steered by the high.  Cristina should turn toward the west\r\nand decelerate over the weekend when the weakening cyclone becomes\r\nmore steered by the low-level flow.  Although there is still some\r\nmodel disagreement at long range, the model consensus is almost\r\nunchanged from the previous one, and the new NHC forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the last prediction.\r\n\r\nCristina is the earliest second major hurricane formation in the\r\neastern Pacific since reliable records began in 1971, eclipsing the\r\nformer record of Darby (2010) by 13 days.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 16.2N 106.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-06-12 12:30:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n530 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014\r\n\r\nCristina has continued to rapidly intensify overnight.  Its\r\nwell-defined eye is now completely surrounded by cloud tops as cold\r\nas -80C, and the current intensity is estimated to be around 125 kt\r\nbased mainly on objective ADT guidance.  This makes Cristina the\r\nsecond category 4 hurricane of the eastern North Pacific season.\r\n\r\nThis special advisory is being issued to update the initial\r\nintensity and the intensity forecast during the first 24 hours.\r\nThe remainder of the forecast remains unchanged from the 0900 UTC\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1230Z 16.4N 106.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 16.7N 107.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 17.5N 108.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 18.3N 110.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 19.0N 111.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 19.7N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 20.0N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-06-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 12 2014\r\n\r\nCorrected wording in last paragraph\r\n\r\nCristina has gone through an extraordinary, but not unprecedented,\r\nphase of rapid intensification during the past 24 hours, with its\r\nmaximum winds increasing by about 65 kt since this time yesterday.\r\nThe hurricane has a circular central dense overcast with very cold\r\ncloud tops to near -80C.  Water vapor images indicate that\r\nupper-level outflow is somewhat restricted in the southwestern\r\nquadrant but is good elsewhere.  Cristina has strengthened so fast\r\nthat TAFB and SAB satellite estimates are limited to T6.0/115 kt by\r\nDvorak rules.  The initial intensity is set at 130 kt, a little\r\nbelow the latest objective ADT estimate of T6.8/135 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity trend appears to have leveled off a bit, and no\r\nfurther significant strengthening is expected.  However, light\r\nvertical wind shear and a deep warm ocean should allow Cristina to\r\nmaintain major hurricane strength for another 36 hours or so.\r\nAfter that time, gradually increasing vertical shear and cooler sea\r\nsurface temperatures should induce significant weakening after\r\nabout 48 hours.  The official intensity forecast is fairly close to\r\nthe consensus ICON and is similar to that of the special advisory.\r\n\r\nCristina is located to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over\r\nnorthern Mexico, and the initial motion remains 295/7 kt.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to maintain a west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward heading during the next 4 days due to the ridge, and\r\nthe track guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario.\r\nThe GFDL model is the primary outlier, taking Cristina farther north\r\nafter 48 hours.  The official forecast sticks with the rest of the\r\nguidance, however, and is relatively unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nWith Hurricanes Amanda and Cristina reaching category 4 status, this\r\nis the first time there have been two category 4 hurricanes through\r\nJune in the eastern North Pacific basin since the beginning of the\r\nsatellite era in 1966.  Prior to Cristina, the earliest second\r\ncategory 4 hurricane was Hurricane Elida in 1984, which reached\r\nthat threshold on July 1.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.6N 107.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 17.2N 108.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 17.9N 109.5W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 18.7N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 19.2N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-06-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014\r\n\r\nCristina appeared to peak in intensity earlier this morning around\r\n1200 UTC.  Deep convection has become less symmetric since that\r\ntime, and the eye is somewhat cloud filled in the latest visible\r\nimages.  The initial intensity is lowered to 120 kt for this\r\nadvisory, which is close to a blend of current intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT.\r\n\r\nAlthough a UW-CIMSS shear analysis indicates that about 10 kt of\r\nwest-southwesterly shear is affecting Cristina, it is likely that\r\ninternal dynamics within the core of the hurricane are also\r\nmodulating the intensity.  Only gradual weakening is forecast\r\nduring the next 24-36 hours since vertical wind shear is expected to\r\nremain light and the ocean is sufficiently warm.  After 48 hours,\r\nenvironmental conditions become more hostile, and quicker weakening\r\nis anticipated after that time.  Given the hurricane's current\r\nstructure, the statistical models appear too sluggish in showing\r\nweakening in the short-term, and the NHC intensity forecast\r\ntherefore shows faster weakening during the first 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 295/7 kt with Cristina located to the\r\nsouth of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.  The track models\r\nare tightly clustered for much of the forecast period, showing\r\nCristina maintaining a northwestward to west-northwestward motion\r\nthrough the next 48 hours.  After that time, the weakening cyclone\r\nwill be steered to the west by lower-level flow.  The updated NHC\r\ntrack forecast is moved a little north of the previous forecast\r\nduring the first 48 hours in response to a general shift in the\r\nguidance envelope, but overall the change is quite negligible.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 16.9N 107.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 17.6N 108.9W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 18.4N 110.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 19.1N 111.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 19.5N 112.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 19.7N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 19.8N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-06-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUN 12 2014\r\n\r\nCristina has weakened during the last several hours.  The eye has\r\nlost definition and is now barely apparent in satellite images.  In\r\naddition, the cloud pattern has become asymmetric with the\r\nconvection being eroded to the west of the center, likely due to\r\nmid-level dry air and some westerly shear.  Dvorak intensity numbers\r\nfrom all agencies are decreasing, and the initial wind speed is\r\nlowered to 105 kt based on those estimates.  Cristina is expected to\r\ncontinue weakening as it moves toward a more hostile environment,\r\nincluding progressively colder waters during the next several days.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one to account\r\nfor the observed weakening, and is in good agreement with the\r\nintensity model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  A\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the\r\nnext couple of days as Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge over\r\nnorthern Mexico.  After that time, the weakening and shallower\r\nsystem should turn westward steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is once again nudged northward following the trend in\r\nthe latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 17.3N 108.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 18.0N 109.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 18.8N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 20.0N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 20.0N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-06-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014\r\n\r\nAfter going through a remarkable rapid intensification yesterday,\r\nCristina has now rapidly weakened at a similar rate.  Microwave\r\nimagery suggest that the eyewall is about 50 percent open, and\r\nonly occasional hints of an eye can be seen on conventional\r\nsatellite data.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt as a\r\nblend of the Dvorak estimates.  However this value is more uncertain\r\nthan normal owing to a rather large spread in the satellite\r\nintensity estimates from various agencies.\r\n\r\nDecreasing SSTS, along with increasing shear and dry air aloft,\r\nshould generally continue to weaken Cristina.  Most of the models do\r\nsuggest a slower weakening rate than what has recently been\r\nobserved, which seems reasonable since the environment isn't\r\nextremely hostile.  The NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the\r\nprevious one, mostly to account for the steep drop in the initial\r\nwind speed, and is close to the intensity consensus.   Transition\r\ninto a remnant low seems likely in about 3-4 days when Cristina is\r\nsurrounded by very dry air and over cool waters.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is now moving to the northwest at about 7 kt.  A\r\nnorthwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the\r\nnext day or two while Cristina is steered by a mid-level ridge\r\nover northern Mexico.  After that time, the weakened storm should\r\nturn westward, steered primarily by the low-level flow.  The only\r\nnotable change to the track guidance on this cycle is that Cristina\r\ncontinues the west-northwestward motion for a little longer before\r\ntaking the westward turn.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted\r\nslightly to the north beyond 48 hours, following the trend in the\r\nlatest guidance, but is otherwise virtually unchanged.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 17.7N 109.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 18.3N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 19.0N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 19.5N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 19.8N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 20.2N 114.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 20.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/0600Z 20.5N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-06-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014\r\n\r\nCristina appears to be in the latter stages of an eyewall\r\nreplacement.  A small part of the original eyewall is surrounded by\r\nan elongated spiral band, and the eye, as seen in microwave images,\r\nhas expanded to 25-30 n mi wide.  The satellite intensity estimates\r\nare still suggesting an overall downward trend, and the initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 85 kt based on a blend of the Final-T and\r\nCurrent Intensity numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT.\r\n\r\nCristina is approaching a tight sea surface temperature gradient,\r\nand the cyclone probably has another 36 hours or so before it moves\r\nover water colder than 26C.  In addition, upper-level winds are\r\nlikely to become more hostile in about 24 hours with the approach\r\nof a sharp upper-level trough from the west.  Therefore, it\r\nis unlikely that Cristina will recover much after the eyewall\r\nreplacement, and continued steady weakening is expected during the\r\nentire forecast period.  The new NHC forecast is mainly an update of\r\nthe previous one and is close to the intensity consensus during the\r\nfirst 24 hours and then a bit lower between 36-72 hours.\r\n\r\nA mid-level ridge located over northwestern Mexico continues to\r\nsteer Cristina northwestward at about 7 kt.  This motion should\r\ncontinue for another 24 hours while the cyclone remains a hurricane\r\nor strong tropical storm.  The weakening system is then expected to\r\nturn west-northwestward by 36 hours.  The track guidance once again\r\nshifted a little to the north on this advisory cycle, and the new\r\nNHC track forecast is also moved in that direction for much of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 18.0N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 19.4N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 20.1N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 21.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-06-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014\r\n\r\nA 1657 UTC AMSU pass suggests that Cristina's eyewall replacement\r\nis probably almost complete, and coincidentally, visible satellite\r\nimages show a ragged eye trying to re-form.  The convective pattern\r\nis somewhat lopsided, however, and objective ADT estimates have\r\ncontinued to slowly decrease.  Based on the latest Dvorak estimates,\r\nthe initial intensity is set at 80 kt.\r\n\r\nNow that the eyewall replacement appears complete, it is not out of\r\nthe question that Cristina could re-intensify a bit or at least\r\nmaintain its intensity in the short term while environmental\r\nconditions remain relatively favorable.  From this point forward,\r\nhowever, vertical shear will be gradually increasing and sea surface\r\ntemperatures will be decreasing.  Therefore, the gradual weakening\r\ntrend currently in progress is expected to continue during the next\r\nthree days, with Cristina likely to become a remnant low by day 4.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is between the intensity consensus and\r\nthe Florida State Superensemble, which dissipates Cristina by day 3.\r\n\r\nCristina is still moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  The cyclone\r\nis expected to begin slowing down in about 24 hours when the mid-\r\nlevel ridge to its north weakens.  Low- to mid-level ridging will\r\nthen steer Cristina west-northwestward through the remainder of the\r\nforecast period.  The guidance is in fairly good agreement on\r\nCristina's future track, and no significant changes to the NHC\r\nforecast were required on this advisory cycle.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 18.5N 110.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 19.1N 111.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 19.6N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 19.9N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 20.3N 113.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 21.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 21.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-06-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUN 13 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows that Cristina's inner core\r\nconvection has become somewhat better organized and colder than\r\nsix hours ago.  The eye is also slightly better defined and\r\nwarmer, though it was cloud-filled in last-light visible images.\r\nA 0045 UTC SSMIS overpass revealed that a new inner eyewall had\r\ndeveloped but was partially open to the southwest.  Although Dvorak\r\nCI- and Final-T numbers were a consensus 4.5/77 kt at 00z, the\r\ninitial intensity is kept at 80 kt, owing to the slight increase in\r\norganization of the the cloud pattern since the last advisory.\r\nDespite the recent uptick in organization, gradual weakening is\r\nindicated by the intensity guidance during the day or two as\r\nCristina encounters increasing southwesterly shear and moves over\r\ncooler waters.  Rapid weakening is likely by 48 hours, when the\r\ncyclone reaches a hostile environment of sea surface temperatures\r\nlower than 25C, greater than 20 kt of southwesterly shear, and\r\na substantially drier and more stable air mass.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is little changed from the previous one except to show\r\nremnant low status a day sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/06.  Global models show Cristina\r\nbeing steered around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical\r\nridge over northwestern Mexico in the short term.  This feature is\r\nforecast to weaken during the next couple of days as a longwave\r\ntrough becomes established over the western United States and\r\nextreme northern Mexico.  This pattern should cause the forward\r\nspeed of the cyclone to decrease while the the circulation weakens\r\nand becomes more shallow.  The shallow vortex should turn westward\r\nby 72 hours and move little as it becomes embedded in region of weak\r\nlow-level steering.  Given the good model agreement, the NHC\r\nforecast is nearly identical to the previous one and very near the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 18.9N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 19.3N 111.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 20.1N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 21.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 21.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0000Z 21.2N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Cristina","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-06-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014\r\n\r\nCristina has been on a weakening trend during the last several\r\nhours with warming cloud tops noted and less organization seen on\r\ninfrared satellite images.  In addition, microwave data suggest that\r\nthe mid-level center is displaced to the northeast of the low-level\r\ncirculation.  A blend of the T/CI numbers from TAFB/SAB gives an\r\ninitial wind speed of 70 kt.  The hurricane is expected to encounter\r\ncooler waters and increasing wind shear over the next few days.  In\r\ncombination with plentiful dry air aloft, these factors should\r\ncontribute to continued weakening.  Cristina will likely transition\r\ninto a remnant low in about two days when SSTs drop below 25C.\r\nGuidance is lower than the last cycle, and the NHC wind speed\r\nprediction is reduced from the previous one, a bit lower than the\r\nintensity consensus aids.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 310/6.  The cyclone should be\r\nsteered by a subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico for the next\r\nday or two, resulting in a slower track to the west-northwest.\r\nAfter that time, the model guidance is now showing less of a\r\nwestward motion when the cyclone is a remnant low, perhaps due to a\r\nweaker low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific.  No significant\r\nchanges were made to the first 48 hours of the NHC forecast, but\r\nafterwards the new forecast is shifted to the north, closer to the\r\nlatest guidance.\r\n\r\nThe 2014 eastern Pacific hurricane season is off to a record fast\r\nstart.  Up through today's date, it has the highest Accumulated\r\nCyclone Energy (ACE) value of any year since 1971-- over 6 times\r\nthe 1981-2010 average.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 19.3N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 19.7N 111.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 20.1N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 20.5N 113.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 20.8N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 21.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 22.0N 118.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-06-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014\r\n\r\nCristina's convective organization is degrading quickly, with the\r\nlow-level center located near the southwestern edge of an\r\nelongating convective band.  A blend of the Final-T and CI numbers\r\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and the ADT support downgrading Cristina to a 60-kt\r\ntropical storm on this advisory.  Vertical shear will continue to\r\nincrease during the next day or two, and Cristina will also be\r\nmoving over sub-26C water in about 12-24 hours.  Therefore, steady\r\nweakening is forecast to continue, and the cyclone will likely\r\nbecome a remnant low in 36-48 hours and dissipate by day 5.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast favors a fairly quick weakening rate and is\r\nclosest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HWRF model.\r\n\r\nCristina has slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is 310/5 kt.\r\nNow that vertical shear is decoupling the system, the cyclone is\r\nlikely to turn toward the west-northwest later today and maintain\r\nthat heading through 48 hours.  After that time, a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge should allow the remnant low to turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest before it dissipates.  This northward trend has\r\nbeen observed in several model cycles, and the NHC track forecast\r\nhas again been shifted northward on days 3 and 4.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 19.4N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 19.8N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 20.2N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-06-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014\r\n\r\nCristina's convective pattern continues to degrade, with the\r\nremaining deep convection located to the north and northeast of the\r\nlow-level center. The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt based\r\non a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates\r\nand data from a 1730 UTC ASCAT overpass. Moderate vertical shear and\r\nan increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic environment should result\r\nin continued weakening to tropical depression status in about 24\r\nhours. Cristina is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours and\r\ndissipate entirely by day 4. The NHC intensity forecast has been\r\nadjusted downward toward the new IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/05, and a general northwestward\r\nto west-northwestward motion is expected to continue as the\r\nweakening cyclone is steered around the southwestern side of the\r\nsubtropical ridge for the next couple of days. By day 3, the remnant\r\nlow should gain a little more latitude as it moves into a weakness\r\nin the ridge. The official track forecast is a little north of\r\nand faster than the previous one, trending toward the latest TVCE\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on the\r\naforementioned ASCAT pass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 19.7N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 20.1N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 20.6N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 21.1N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 21.7N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 23.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-06-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 14 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Cristina has dissipated during\r\nthe last several hours, with the circulation now just a swirl of low\r\nclouds.  Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased considerably,\r\nand, as a result, the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based\r\non a blend of CI- and Final-T numbers.  A continued rapid spin down\r\nof the vortex is forecast by all of the intensity guidance, and\r\nCristina should weaken to a remnant low within 24 hours.  Global\r\nmodels then show the remnant low degenerating into an open trough in\r\na few days.  The NHC intensity forecast now calls for Cristina to\r\nbecome post-tropical in 24 hours, though this could occur sooner.\r\n\r\nNow that Cristina is a shallow cyclone, its movement has become more\r\nwesterly as it is steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north.\r\nA longer-term average of center fixes, however, gives an initial\r\nmotion estimate of 295/05.  As the ridge to the north weakens during\r\nthe next day or so, Cristina is expected to resume a west-\r\nnorthwestward or northwestward motion at a slow forward speed until\r\ndissipation. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nbut adjusted slightly to the left during the first 24 hours as a\r\nresult of the more westward initial motion.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 19.8N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 20.0N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 20.6N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 21.2N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 21.8N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 23.0N 117.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cristina","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-06-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for about 12\r\nhours now, shallow to moderate convection has encircled the cyclone\r\ncenter with some cloud tops to -30C located about 60 nmi north of\r\nthe center. Given that Cristina is moving westward over SSTs near\r\n27C, tropical storm status is being maintained for this advisory in\r\nthe event that convection redevelops near the center later this\r\nmorning. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on an average of\r\nsatellite current intensity estimates of 35 kt from both TAFB and\r\nSAB, 31 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, and 36 kt from CIRA-AMSU.\r\n\r\nCristina has been moving westward, or 270/05 kt, for the past 6\r\nhours. However, this is likely only a temporary wobble due to the\r\nmid- and upper-level circulations having decoupled and sheared out\r\nto the north and northeast. The consensus of the model guidance\r\ncalls for Cristina and its remnant circulation to gradually turn\r\ntoward the west-northwest later today, followed by a turn toward the\r\nnorthwest on Monday as the cyclone moves slowly toward a developing\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge. The official forecast track is\r\nslightly to the left of the previous advisory to account for the\r\nmore westward initial position.\r\n\r\nWater vapor imagery indicates that the small, cold upper-low that\r\nhas induced southwesterly wind shear across the cyclone has recently\r\nbecome juxtaposed with Cristina's low-level circulation. Although it\r\nis doubtful that the tropical storm will regenerate into a\r\nvertically deep cyclone as a result of this short-lived interaction,\r\nthe cold air aloft associated with the upper-low could temporarily\r\nenhance the develop of some convection near the center today before\r\nCristina moves over sub-26C SSTs. Otherwise, a gradual spin down of\r\nthe cyclone is expected over the next 72 hours, and the official\r\nintensity forecast calls for Cristina to become a post-tropical low\r\nlater today and dissipate in about 3-4 days, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 19.8N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 20.2N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 20.9N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 22.2N 116.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 23.3N 117.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cristina","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-06-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014\r\n\r\nCristina continues to lack any deep convection, which is not\r\nsurprising given the hostile envirionment of strong shear, cool\r\nwaters and dry air. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Cristina will likely\r\nbe declared a remnant low later today, and global model fields\r\nshow the low dissipating around 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has turned back toward the west-northwest at 5\r\nkt. Cristina is expected to gradually turn poleward into a weakness\r\nin the subtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. The NHC track is\r\na little to the right of the previous one, following the latest\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 20.1N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 20.6N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 21.3N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 23.0N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Cristina","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-06-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP032014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 15 2014\r\n\r\nCristina has been devoid of deep convection since yesterday, and it\r\nonly consists of a tight swirl of low-level clouds.  Therefore,\r\nCristina is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last\r\nadvisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.\r\n\r\nThe remnant low is moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to turn northwestward tonight toward a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge, and continue in that direction\r\nuntil it dissipates in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 20.5N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 21.0N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 21.7N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 22.4N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 23.1N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-06-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the area of low pressure southwest\r\nof Mexico has enough banded convective organization and center\r\ndefinition to be declared a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity\r\nis set to 30 kt, in agreement with an ASCAT-B pass from 1602 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale environment looks favorable for strengthening, with\r\nan upper-level anticyclone located just east of the center, along\r\nwith plenty of warm water.  However, the depression has a rather\r\nlarge circulation envelope and radius of maximum winds, which could\r\npreclude anything more than gradual strengthening.  Guidance is\r\nsplit, with the LGEM/SHIPS showing a strong tropical storm, while\r\nthe HWRF/GFDL keep the system weaker through the first few days of\r\nthe forecast.  The NHC prediction is a little below the intensity\r\nconsensus at first to account for the initial structure, then is\r\nabove the consensus on Days 2/3 under the assumption the system\r\neventually consolidates.  Some weakening seems likely at longer\r\nranges due to cooler waters and possible dry air aloft.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion of the cyclone is 295/10.  A ridge currently\r\nover the eastern Pacific and northern Mexico is forecast to build\r\neastward and strengthen over the next couple of days, which should\r\ncause the cyclone to accelerate and take a slight leftward bend by\r\nMonday.  The guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track\r\nforecast is close to the model consensus during this time.\r\nAfterward, there is much uncertainty in the forecast due to\r\na possible interaction with invest EP97 to the east, along with the\r\nridge likely weakening along 120W.  The model solutions become\r\nrather divergent, ranging from a slow southward motion from the\r\nHWRF/GFDL to a moderate westward motion from the ECMWF/GEFS.  The\r\nNHC forecast at long range will show a slow westward course,\r\nmore in line with the ECMWF/GEFS solutions, and is west of the\r\ntrack consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 14.5N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 15.3N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 17.5N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-06-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 28 2014\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images show that deep convection associated with\r\nthe depression is only loosely organized in bands while a new burst\r\nof convection is developing about 100 nm north of the estimated\r\ncenter.  Since the structure has not improved much since the last\r\nadvisory, the intensity is being held at 30 kt, which is supported\r\nby a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.\r\n\r\nThe depression is located to the south of an anomalously strong\r\nmid-level ridge which runs east-west across northern Mexico and the\r\nadjacent Pacific.  As a result, the depression is moving quickly to\r\nthe west-northwest with an initial motion of 285/12 kt.  Further\r\nacceleration is anticipated in the next 12-24 hours as the\r\ndepression gets closer to the strongest part of the ridge.  After\r\n24 hours, the ridge is forecast to shift westward and become\r\nanchored near 25N 135W, which will tend to cause the depression to\r\nslow down in the latter part of the forecast period.  The track\r\nmodels are in generally good agreement in the eventual path of the\r\ncyclone but do diverge on forward speed by days 3 through 5.  The\r\nbiggest outlier is the GFDL, which turns the depression\r\nnortheastward toward Mexico in response to a more significant break\r\nin the ridge.  The GFDL solution is disregarded, and the updated\r\ntrack forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous one.\r\n\r\nRelatively low vertical shear, a moist environment, and warm sea\r\nsurface temperatures favor strengthening during the next few days.\r\nRapid intensification is not expected in the short term due to the\r\nsprawling nature of the depression, but once the cyclone becomes\r\nmore consolidated, strengthening should be a little quicker.  The\r\nupdated NHC forecast shows a slightly faster strengthening rate\r\nbetween 12-48 hours and is just under the SHIPS guidance.  By day 3,\r\na more stable and drier air mass, as well as cooler ocean water,\r\nwill likely end any intensification and then cause gradual weakening\r\nby the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 14.6N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 15.4N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 16.1N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 16.6N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 17.0N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 17.5N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 17.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-06-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone remains rather broad and sprawling early this\r\nmorning, with some deep convective banding features trying to\r\ndevelop.  Data from an ASCAT overpass suggests that the system does\r\nnot yet have strong winds very close to the center, and that it is\r\nbelow tropical storm strength.  This is also in agreement with\r\nDvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The current intensity\r\nis held at 30 kt based on those estimates.\r\n\r\nThe depression continues to move fairly quickly toward the\r\nwest-northwest, or about 290/14, due to a strong mid-level high\r\npressure area that is currently situated to the north of the\r\ncyclone.  Global models predict that this high pressure area will\r\nshift westward during the next few days, with a mid-level weakness\r\ndeveloping to the north of the tropical cyclone later in the\r\nforecast period.  Consequently, the system should gradually slow its\r\nforward speed within the next couple of days.  The official track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and fairly close to the\r\nlatest ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nThe broad nature of the cyclone and lack of an inner core argues\r\nagainst any rapid strengthening.  Nonetheless, vertical shear is\r\nforecast to remain low and the system will be traversing\r\nsufficiently warm waters to allow for strengthening during the next\r\nfew days.  The official wind speed forecast is very similar to the\r\nlatest Decay-SHIPS guidance through 72 hours and close to the\r\nintensity model consensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 15.3N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 16.0N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 16.7N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 17.2N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 17.6N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 18.0N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 17.5N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-06-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite pictures show that the cloud pattern of the cyclone has\r\ngradually been increasing in organization this morning.  A large\r\nband consisting of very cold-topped convection covers the western\r\nsemicircle of the circulation, and deep convection has also begun\r\nto develop around the center in what appears to be the beginnings\r\nof an inner core. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates remain at\r\n2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity estimate is\r\nkept at 30 kt for this advisory.  However, recent trends suggest\r\nthat the depression is very near tropical-storm strength.\r\n\r\nThe center position has been difficult to determine, which, in\r\nturn, makes the depression's initial motion rather uncertain. A\r\nsmoothing of the latest fixes suggests that the cyclone continues\r\nto move quickly toward the west-northwest, or 295/14, due to a\r\nstrong subtropical ridge located to the north of the cyclone. Global\r\nmodels show a weak mid- to upper-level trough extending southward\r\noffshore of the California coast during the next few days, which\r\nis forecast to cause this ridge to weaken.  This change in the\r\nsteering pattern should result in a substantial reduction in the\r\ncyclone's forward speed with the track bending toward the west once\r\nthe circulation becomes more shallow in nature.  The NHC forecast\r\ntrack is quite a bit faster and to the right of the previous one,\r\nprimarily due to the re-location of the center based upon\r\nfirst-light visible images. The forecast track lies on the far left\r\nside of the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions are favorable for strengthening during the\r\nnext couple of days, but the large size and slow evolution of the\r\ninner core of the depression suggests that only gradual\r\nintensification is likely to occur.  Beyond that time, the\r\ncyclone should reach cooler waters and move into a somewhat drier\r\nand more stable air mass, which should bring a halt to any further\r\nstrengthening. The large-scale conditions should not, however, be\r\nhostile enough to cause a rapid decay of the cyclone, so only slow\r\nweakening is indicated late in the forecast period.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus through 72 hours, but is a little lower\r\non days 4-5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 16.4N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 17.0N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 17.5N 114.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N 116.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 18.7N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 18.7N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-06-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images suggest that the depression's cloud pattern has not\r\nbecome better organized since this morning.  Deep convection near\r\nthe center has decreased, while convection remains concentrated in a\r\nlong band over the western semicircle of the circulation. A partial\r\nASCAT overpass at 1722 UTC continues to indicate a large and\r\nsprawling cyclonic envelope associated with the depression, with the\r\nstrongest winds well removed from the center of circulation. Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates are a 2.5 and 2.0 from TAFB and SAB,\r\nrespectively, at 1800 UTC.  Given the lack of change in the system's\r\norganization, the initial intensity estimate is maintained at 30 kt\r\nfor this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe center is still not obvious, even in visible satellite imagery,\r\nand thus the initial motion estimate, or 295/14, is as uncertain as\r\nit was previously. The cyclone should continue to move at a fast\r\nclip on the south side of a strong subtropical ridge.  This ridge is\r\nforecast to weaken and shift westward during the next couple of days\r\nwhen a mid- to upper-level shortwave trough moves into the\r\nCalifornia coast.  This should cause a notable reduction in the\r\nforward speed of the cyclone during this time, with the track\r\nbecoming more westerly after that once the storm becomes more\r\nshallow in nature.  The NHC track forecast remains on the left side\r\nof the guidance envelope, slightly to the left of and slower than\r\nthe previous one through 36 hours.  The forecast track is adjusted\r\nto the right and is slower beyond 36 hours but is not as far right\r\nas the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nLow shear and warm waters along the depression's track should favor\r\nintensification for another day or possibly two, but the large size\r\nand slow evolution of inner core suggests that any strengthening\r\nwill only be gradual. Cooler waters and a drier and more stable\r\natmosphere should bring any intensification to a halt in about two\r\ndays, with slow but steady weakening after that time in the absence\r\nof any significant shear.  The thermodynamics should become\r\nincreasingly unfavorable late in the forecast period, and remnant\r\nlow status is now forecast on day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\na bit lower than the previous one and close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus IVCN through 72 hours but a bit lower after that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 16.5N 111.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 17.0N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 17.6N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 18.3N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 18.7N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 18.8N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 18.9N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 18.8N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-06-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 29 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite appearance of the tropical cyclone has improved\r\nduring the past several hours.  Deep convection has increased near\r\nthe center and the primary band wraps farther around the southern\r\nand southwestern portions of the circulation.  Dvorak T-numbers are\r\na consensus 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 35 kt.  Douglas becomes the fourth tropical storm of\r\nthe 2014 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.\r\n\r\nAlthough Douglas has recently been moving more westward, the\r\nlonger-term initial motion estimate is 295 degrees at 14 kt.\r\nDouglas is expected to move west-northwestward during the next few\r\ndays while it remains to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge\r\nthat extends from the southwestern United States westward across the\r\neastern Pacific.  The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next\r\ncouple of days which should cause a reduction in forward speed of\r\nthe tropical cyclone.  Later in the period, Douglas should turn\r\nwestward as it weakens and becomes a more shallow system. Although\r\nthe track guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is\r\nquite a bit of spread later in the period as to how far north\r\nDouglas gets before making the westward turn.  For now, the NHC\r\ntrack forecast remains along the southern edge of the model\r\nenvelope.  This is close to the previous advisory and is in good\r\nagreement with the latest ECMWF.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for\r\nstrengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The main inhibiting\r\nfactor is still likely to be the large and sprawling structure of\r\nthe cyclone. After that time, Douglas will be moving over gradually\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures and into a more stable\r\nenvironment.  This should cause gradual weakening and the system is\r\nforecast to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 16.4N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 17.0N 114.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 17.9N 115.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 18.4N 116.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 18.6N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 18.8N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 18.8N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-06-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas has changed little in organization since the last advisory\r\npackage.  The tropical cyclone has some banding features, but\r\ncontinues to have limited deep convection near its center.  The\r\ncurrent intensity is held at 35 kt in agreement with Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB, SAB, and data from an ASCAT overpass.  This is\r\nonly slightly below the latest objective Dvorak estimate from\r\nUW/CIMSS.\r\n\r\nLatest center fixes show a considerable deceleration, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 300/8, much slower than previous\r\nestimates.  Apparently there has been a substantial weakening of\r\nthe mid-level ridge to the north of Douglas.  The global models\r\nshow a slight weakness in the mid-level ridge to the north of the\r\ntropical cyclone for the next 72 hours or so.  This should result\r\nin an even slower forward motion toward the west-northwest or\r\nnorthwest.  Late in the forecast period, the ridge strengthens\r\nsomewhat to the north of Douglas, and this, along with steering\r\nby the low-level flow, should cause the weakening cyclone to turn\r\ntoward the west with some increase in forward speed.  The latest\r\nofficial forecast is slower than the previous one, and quite close\r\nto the newest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe storm is already moving over slightly cooler waters, but there\r\nis well-defined upper-tropospheric outflow over the system.\r\nVertical shear should remain weak for the next few days, and given\r\nthe favorable dynamics, some strengthening is still forecast. The\r\nofficial wind speed forecast is a little above the latest intensity\r\nmodel consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 16.6N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 18.0N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 18.5N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 18.8N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 19.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 19.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 19.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas has changed little in organization during the past 6 hours.\r\nThe cyclone has maintained a broad inner core with most of the\r\nconvective banding features being well removed from the center.\r\nThe current intensity has been held at 35 kt, which is in agreement\r\nwith satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/08 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Douglas is\r\nexpected to move west-northwestward for the next 48 hours or so\r\ntoward a weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of the\r\ncyclone, which will result in a gradual decrease in Douglas'\r\nforward speed. By late in the forecast period, the ridge is\r\nexpected to strengthen, which should turn the cyclone more westward\r\nas it comes under the influence of moderate low-level trade wind\r\nflow. This motion will bring Douglas over cooler waters, causing the\r\ncyclone to gradually weaken. The official forecast track is a\r\nlittle to the right of the previous advisory track, but only to\r\naccount for the more northward initial position. Otherwise, the new\r\nforecast track closely follows the multi-model consensus TCVE.\r\n\r\nAlthough the vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak at less\r\nthan 10 kt for the next 3 days or so, the broad inner-core wind\r\nfield and sea-surface temperatures decreasing to less than 27C\r\nargues for only slight intensification over the next couple of days.\r\nAfter that, Douglas will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a\r\ndrier and more stable thermodynamic environment, which should\r\nresult in steady weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is similar\r\nto the previous advisory and follows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 17.4N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 18.1N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 18.7N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 19.1N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 19.5N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 19.5N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 19.5N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas is holding its own.  The main deep convection associated\r\nwith the storm is located in a long band wrapping around the\r\nsouthern semicircle of the circulation.  However, cloud top\r\ntemperatures in that band have been slowly warming.  A 1700 UTC\r\nASCAT pass winds showed around 30 kt winds, primarily in an area\r\nabout 100 n mi southeast of the center. Dvorak intensity are 2.5\r\nfrom both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC.  Based on these classifications\r\nand the assumption that there could be somewhat higher winds not\r\ncaptured in the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is held at 35 for\r\nthis advisory.  Time has run out for Douglas to intensify further.\r\nEven though there is virtually no shear, the system is already\r\ningesting drier and more stable air mass as it moves over\r\nincreasingly cooler waters.  The NHC intensity forecast is a bit\r\nlower than the previous one and shows remnant low status in 4 days,\r\nthough this potentially could occur sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 305/09.  Douglas is moving into a weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge to its north, which should result in a\r\ncontinued northwestward motion but at considerably slower forward\r\nspeed.  Once the cyclone decouples and become a shallow vortex, a\r\nturn toward the west is expected prior to dissipation. The NHC track\r\nforecast is adjusted only slightly to the north, closer to the\r\nmulti-model consensus as well as the ECMWF and GFS solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 17.7N 114.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 18.3N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 19.0N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 19.3N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 19.6N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 19.6N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 19.6N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Douglas has developed some well-defined inner\r\ncore banding features this evening, as seen in the GOES-West\r\ngeostationary imagery.  Correspondingly, the intensity estimates\r\nhave inched upward:  a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak\r\nclassifications averages 40 kt, the Advanced Dvorak Technique is at\r\n43 kt, and the CIMSS AMSU technique suggests 48 kt.  The initial\r\nintensity is thus set at 40 kt, but this could be slightly low.\r\n\r\nIt appears that Douglas may soon be at its peak intensity, as the\r\nsea surface temperatures and convective instability start dropping\r\nsteadily in about a day despite rather low vertical wind shear.  The\r\nintensity guidance is tightly clustered and suggests gradual\r\nweakening after 24 h until loss of deep convection in about 3-4\r\ndays causes the system to become a remnant low.  The intensity\r\nforecast is slightly above the previous advisory, mainly due to the\r\nshort-term intensity trend.\r\n\r\nDouglas is moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt.  The system is\r\nprimarily being steered by a broad ridge to its north, which should\r\nweaken within the next day or so as a short-wave trough approaches\r\nfrom the west.  When this occurs, the steering flow becomes almost\r\nnegligible and Douglas is likely to drift slowly west-northwestward\r\nbetween 24 and 72 h.  By days 4 and 5, the remnant low of Douglas\r\nwill accelerate westward in the low-level tradewind flow.  The\r\ntrack forecast is based upon TVCE - the variable consensus model -\r\nand is slightly north of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 18.4N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 19.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 19.4N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 19.6N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 19.7N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0000Z 21.0N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Douglas has not changed much over\r\nthe past few hours, with some broken convective bands seen\r\nsoutheast and west of the center. A blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT yields\r\nan initial intensity of 40 kt. While the shear is expected to remain\r\nlow, Douglas will be moving over cool sea surface temperatures and\r\ninto a more stable thermodynamic environment during the next few\r\ndays. This should result in a gradual spin down of the large\r\ncirculation, and Douglas is expected to weaken to a remnant low by\r\nday 4.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/06. As the ridge north of\r\nDouglas weakens later today, the cyclone should slow down and drift\r\nwest-northwestward and westward for the next 2-3 days. After that\r\ntime, the shallow cyclone will be steered more steadily westward by\r\nthe trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is largely an\r\nupdate of the previous one through the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 18.8N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 19.1N 115.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 19.4N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 19.6N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 19.7N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 20.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 20.5N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery indicates that the Douglas' cloud\r\npattern has not changed much this morning, except for some cooling\r\nof cloud top temperatures northwest of the center.  A blend of\r\nDvorak intensity estimates and an ADT CI value of 2.2 are used to\r\nlower the initial wind speed estimate to 35 kt on this advisory.\r\nAlthough the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low during\r\nthe next few days, Douglas will be traversing gradually decreasing\r\nsea surface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more\r\nstable air.  These factors should result in a gradual weakening of\r\nthe cyclone, and remnant low status is indicated by day 3.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is reduced slightly relative to the previous one\r\nand is near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/06.  The subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone is weakening, which should result in a further\r\nreduction of forward speed on a west-northwesterly heading during\r\nthe next couple of days.  Once Douglas becomes a shallower vortex in\r\n2-3 days, a bend of the track toward the west is expected, followed\r\nby some increase in forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the previous one, nudged slightly to the\r\nnorth in the direction of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 19.1N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 19.4N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 19.7N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 19.9N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 20.1N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 20.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 21.0N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z 21.5N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nSince the last advisory, deep convection associated with Douglas has\r\nconsolidated into a long band wrapping around the western and\r\nsouthern portions of the broad circulation. As a result, Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates have increased slightly to 3.0/45 kt from TAFB\r\nand SAB, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value is at 2.6/35 kt. A\r\nblend of these data is used to arrive at an initial intensity of 40\r\nkt for this advisory. Even though Douglas is in a nearly shear-free\r\nenvironment, the cyclone is traversing gradually decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures and ingesting somewhat drier and more stable\r\nair.  Given these negative thermodynamic factors, the intensity\r\nguidance shows a slow decay of the cyclone's winds during the next\r\nfew days. The NHC intensity forecast follows this philosophy and is\r\nabout the same as the previous one. The forecast is in basic\r\nagreement with the latest multi-model consensus, and still shows\r\nremnant low status on day 3 and dissipation just after day 5.\r\n\r\nThe latest fixes suggest that the cyclone's forward speed may be\r\ndecreasing, and the initial motion estimate is now 310/04.  A\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge north of Douglas should result\r\nin a further reduction in forward speed, with a possible bend of the\r\ntrack toward the north-northwest during the next day or so. As the\r\ncyclone becomes shallower, a turn toward the west-northwest and\r\nthen the west with some increase in forward speed should occur prior\r\nto dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the\r\nright on the basis of the latest multi-model consensus but is on the\r\nfar left side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 19.2N 115.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 19.5N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 19.9N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 20.5N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 21.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 21.6N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 21.8N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas has maintained a tight curved band of deep convection near\r\nits center, primarily within the western semicircle.  Consequently,\r\nthe TAFB and SAB Dvorak CI numbers have remained the same and thus\r\nthe intensity is kept at 40 kt.  While Douglas should remain under\r\nlight vertical shear for the next few days, the gradually cooling\r\nwaters and drier stable air that the cyclone will encounter\r\nshould cause the convection to diminish and, in about 36-48 hours,\r\neventually to cease.  The large size of Douglas suggests that it\r\nwill wind down gradually, even if the convection dissipates quicker\r\nthan expected. The intensity forecast is based upon the tight\r\nconsensus of intensity models and is nearly the same as that in the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nDouglas has been meandering this evening with a longer-term motion\r\nof 340/2.  The steering for the cyclone has nearly collapsed as the\r\nmid-level ridge to the north has weakened due to a short-wave\r\ntrough impinging upon it.  As Douglas becomes a weaker, shallower\r\nvortex, it should be advected faster toward the west-northwest\r\nin about 3 days and then westward by day 5 in the low-level\r\ntradewind flow. The track forecast is based upon the tightly\r\nclustered multi-model consensus - TVCE - with somewhat less weight\r\nplaced upon the ECMWF model, since this model has had a distinct\r\nequatorward bias for Douglas. This track prediction is slightly\r\npoleward of that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 19.4N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 19.7N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 20.8N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nA flareup of deep convection in the northern semicircle has\r\ndeveloped during the past few hours even though Douglas is now\r\nmoving over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures. A 02/0528 UTC\r\nASCAT-B overpass indicated a couple of 39-kt wind vectors in the\r\nnorthwestern quadrant of the cyclone, so the initial intensity is\r\nbeing maintained at 40 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nDouglas is moving slowly northwestward or 325/03 kt. Steering\r\ncurrents surrounding the cyclone are expected to remain weak for\r\nthe next couple of days as Douglas remains trapped in a weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge that extends from Baja California westward\r\nacross the eastern North Pacific. As the cyclone weakens over\r\ncolder water and becomes more vertically shallow, it should be\r\nsteered westward by the low-level trade wind flow by day 3 and\r\nbeyond. The track forecast is is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory track and is close to the consensus track model TVCE.\r\n\r\nDespite the recent aforementioned resurgence in convection and very\r\nlight vertical wind shear, Douglas is not long for this world. The\r\ncyclone is currently located over sub-26C SSTs, and the water ahead\r\nof the cyclone only gets colder while the surrounding air mass is\r\nbecoming drier and more stable as well. Therefore, gradual weakening\r\nis forecast by 12 hours and beyond, and Douglas is expected to\r\nbecome a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is identical to the previous forecast and closely follows\r\nthe intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 19.6N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 19.8N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 20.6N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 21.1N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 22.2N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 23.0N 122.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z 23.0N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-07-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas's structure has changed little since the last advisory.\r\nDeep convection associated with the storm is losing a bit of\r\norganization but remains compact near the low-level center.  A\r\nblend of Dvorak final-T and CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the\r\nobjective ADT supports maintaining an initial intensity of 40 kt.\r\n\r\nDouglas is trapped in an environment of weak steering and is\r\ndrifting northwestward...or 325/2 kt...toward a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  The subtropical high to the west of Douglas is\r\nexpected to remain in place for another 48 hours or so, which will\r\ncontinue a slow northwestward motion.  After 48 hours, the western\r\nsubtropical high weakens while mid-level ridging strengthens over\r\nthe western United States.  This pattern evolution should cause\r\nDouglas to turn west-northwestward and accelerate between 72-120\r\nhours.  The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the right of\r\nthe previous NHC forecast, especially through 24 hours and again\r\nbetween 96-120 hours.  The updated forecast is also moved to the\r\nright, lying near the ECMWF and just to the left of the model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nGiven Douglas's slow motion in the short term, sea surface\r\ntemperatures will only gradually decrease along the forecast track\r\nduring the next 24-36 hours.  Vertical shear is forecast to remain\r\nlow, and as a result, Douglas should be able to hang on as a\r\ntropical storm for another day or so.  The ocean becomes much colder\r\nonce Douglas accelerates to the west-northwest, and the cyclone is\r\nexpected to become a remnant low by 48 hours.  The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 19.7N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 20.0N 116.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 20.4N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 21.4N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 22.6N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 24.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z 24.5N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-07-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Douglas is quickly losing its\r\norganization.  In addition, a 1758 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that\r\nthe maximum winds have decreased slightly, and the initial\r\nintensity is set at 35 kt for this advisory.  Visible satellite\r\nimages show that dry and stable air continues to infiltrate into\r\nDouglas's circulation, and along with decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures, will contribute to additional weakening during the\r\nnext couple of days.  Douglas is now forecast to become a tropical\r\ndepression in 12 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 36\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nDouglas is creeping north-northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n330/2 kt.  However, the cyclone is expected to turn back to the\r\nnorthwest later tonight and eventually accelerate to the\r\nwest-northwest by 48 hours when mid-level ridging builds over the\r\nwestern United States.  Low-level ridging is forecast to steer the\r\nremnant low west-northwestward to westward between days 3 and 5.\r\nThe track guidance is tightly clustered on this advisory cycle, and\r\nno significant changes were required to the NHC track forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 20.0N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 20.2N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 20.6N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 21.0N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 21.5N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 22.8N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows that a convective band with\r\n-70C cloud top temperatures has persisted over the northeast\r\nportion of the cyclone.  A compromise of the Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB/SAB and the CIMSS ADT CI supports\r\nholding the initial intensity at 35 kt for this advisory. An\r\nintruding dry and stable thermodynamic air mass and decreasing\r\nsea surface temperatures of less than 25C should induce weakening\r\nthrough the forecast period.  The cyclone is forecast to\r\nbecome a depression on Thursday and weaken further into a remant low\r\nnear the 36 hr period.\r\n\r\nDouglas continues to move north-northwestward, or 330/2 kt, within\r\nthe weak steering flow produced by a mid-level ridge extending\r\nacross the eastern Pacific from the southwest United States.  A\r\nturn toward the northwest is forecast on Thursday with a slight\r\nincrease in forward speed as the aforementioned ridge gradually\r\nstrengthens.  By the 36 hour period, Douglas is expected to move\r\nwest-northwestward within the low-level tradewind flow as a\r\nremnant low and continue on this general track through the\r\nremainder of the forecast.  The official NHC forecast track is\r\nslightly to the right of the previous advisory and is close to the\r\nTVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 20.2N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 20.4N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 20.8N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 21.3N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 21.9N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 23.2N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nAfter an earlier burst of convection in the northern semicircle,\r\nthunderstorm activity has been gradually waning over the past few\r\nhours with cloud tops warming during the normal convective maximum\r\nperiod. However, TRMM and AMSU microwave satellite data indicate\r\nthat Douglas has maintained a tight low-level circulation,\r\nincluding a shallow eye-like feature, so the initial intensity is\r\nbeing maintained at 35 kt, which is consistent with satellite\r\nestimates of 35 kt from TAFB and 34 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nDouglas is moving slowly northwestward, or 315/03 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.\r\nDouglas is expected to steadily weaken and gradually become a more\r\nshallow vortex that will be steered toward the west-northwest or\r\nwest by low-level trade wind flow on the south side of the Pacific\r\nsubtropical ridge. The official NHC forecast track is basically\r\njust an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to but\r\njust south of the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nDouglas will gradually weaken throughout the forecast period as the\r\ncyclone ingests cooler and more stable air, and also moves over\r\nsub-24C sea-surface temperatures by 24 hours. Douglas should become\r\na depression later today, possibly even this morning, and degenerate\r\nfurther into a remnant low by Friday. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nconsistent with most of the available intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 20.4N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 20.7N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 21.1N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 21.6N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 22.3N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 23.4N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 24.3N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas is still producing a small but compact area of deep\r\nconvection.  Satellite intensity estimates are straddling the\r\ntropical storm threshold, so I am opting to maintain Douglas as a\r\ntropical storm until we get a few visible satellite images and\r\npossibly an ASCAT pass later today.  Regardless, cold water and dry,\r\nstable air should cause Douglas to weaken to a tropical depression\r\nsoon and degenerate into a remnant low in about 24 hours.\r\nDissipation is forecast by day 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is still slow...320/2 kt.  A mid-level high\r\ncentered just northeast of Hawaii continues to impede Douglas from\r\nmaking much westward progress, but this feature is expected to shift\r\nwestward during the next 48 hours.  At the same time, mid-level\r\nridging will build over the western United States.  Douglas is\r\ntherefore expected to turn west-northwestward and accelerate after\r\n36 hours.  The updated NHC track forecast has been shifted to the\r\nright a bit and lies fairly close to the model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 20.6N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 20.9N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 22.9N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 24.3N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 25.0N 125.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas's low-level center is located just to the west of a small\r\narea of deep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates have\r\ndecreased a bit since this morning, and a blend of the Final-T and\r\nCI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support\r\ndowngrading Douglas to a 30-kt depression.  Continued weakening is\r\nforecast while the depression moves over increasingly cooler\r\nwater and into a drier, more stable environment.  Douglas is\r\nforecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours, but it\r\ncould become one earlier if the deep convection diminishes soon.\r\nDissipation is still expected by day 5.\r\n\r\nDouglas continues to creep northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n315/2 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build over the\r\nwestern United States during the next 48 hours, which should cause\r\nthe remnant low to turn west-northwestward and accelerate by days 3\r\nand 4. The model guidance is in good agreement, and no significant\r\nchanges were required to the official NHC track forecast in this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 20.6N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 21.0N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 21.6N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 23.3N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 24.6N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 25.2N 124.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe center of Douglas is partially exposed to the west of a small\r\narea of deep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates are about\r\nthe same as earlier, so 30 kt is kept as the initial wind speed.\r\nDouglas should gradually lose strength over the next few days while\r\nit moves over cold water within a more stable environment.  The\r\nlatest NHC intensity prediction is about the same as the previous\r\none.  Douglas will likely become a remnant low on Friday while it\r\ntraverses sub-24C waters.  The low should dissipate in about 4 days\r\naccording to the global model guidance.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving a little faster toward the northwest at\r\nabout 4 kt.  Low- to mid-level ridging is expected to build somewhat\r\nover the western United States during the next 48 hours, which\r\nshould cause Douglas or its remnants to speed up a little bit.\r\nModel guidance is virtually unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the\r\nlatest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous\r\none.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 20.9N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 21.4N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 22.1N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N 119.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 23.7N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 24.8N 123.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas consists of a tight swirl of low clouds accompanied by\r\na small curved band of deep convection to the east of the center.\r\nNHC had estimated that the peak winds were 30 knots, but a\r\nrecent ASCAT-B pass shows numerous 35-kt wind vectors associated\r\nwith the circulation of Douglas. The initial intensity has thus been\r\nadjusted to 35 knots. This does not mean that Douglas has\r\nrestrengthened. Instead, the lack of data earlier led us to a lower\r\nwind estimate. Nevertheless, the cyclone is over 24 degree Celsius\r\nwater and weakening to a remnant low in a day or so is still\r\nanticipated.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 5\r\nknots. This general motion is expected to continue during the next\r\n24 to 48 hours with a gradual turn to west as the subtropical ridge\r\nto the north of the cyclone builds westward.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 21.3N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 21.8N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 22.4N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 23.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 24.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas may well have weakened to a tropical depression since the\r\ntime of an overnight ASCAT pass, given that deep convection\r\nassociated with the storm has shrunk in size and become displaced\r\nwell southeast of the center.  However, we'll hold Douglas as a\r\ntropical storm a while longer pending a more definitive indication\r\nof weakening. With some northwesterly shear and a forecast track\r\nthat takes Douglas over even cooler waters, the cyclone should\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low soon.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nthe same as the previous one and shows remnant low status within 24\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 310/05. A building low- to mid-level ridge\r\nover the western United States should steer the storm northwestward\r\nand then west-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed until\r\ndissipation in about 72 hours.  This is in agreement with the latest\r\nmodel guidance and just a bit slower than the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 21.6N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 22.1N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 23.0N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 23.8N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 24.6N 122.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 25.9N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nEven though Douglas has been devoid of deep convection for about six\r\nhours, a 1716 UTC ASCAT overpass indicated a patch of wind near\r\ntropical-storm strength north-northwest of the center.  Therefore,\r\nthe initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory.  With the\r\ncyclone now over 23-degree C water and embedded in a dry and very\r\nstable air mass, it seems unlikely that any deep convection would\r\nre-develop.  Douglas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low\r\nwithin 12 hours, and the circulation of the decaying cyclone should\r\ngradually spin down during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/05, a little to the left than\r\nbefore.  A low-level ridge of high pressure west of the southern\r\ntip of the Baja California peninsula should keep the cyclone moving\r\nwest-northwestward or northwestward until dissipation in about 3\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 21.8N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 22.4N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 23.3N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 24.1N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 24.9N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Douglas","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 04 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas is hanging on as a tropical storm.  After being devoid of\r\ndeep convection for much of the day, a small area has redeveloped to\r\nthe northeast of the center.  The initial wind speed is held at 35\r\nkt based on earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak pattern\r\nT-number of 2.5 from TAFB.  Douglas is currently over cold 23C\r\nwaters and in a stable airmass.  These hostile conditions should\r\ncause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low\r\nby 24 hours.  This is delayed slightly from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt.  A low- to\r\nmid-level ridge to the northeast of Douglas should keep the system\r\non a steady northwestward path until it dissipates in a few days.\r\nThe track forecast is nudged to the north of the previous one, and\r\nis very near the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 22.4N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 23.1N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 24.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 25.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 25.8N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Douglas","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014\r\n\r\nDouglas has once again lost its deep convection, likely now for the\r\nfinal time.  The small patch of showers and thunderstorms dissipated\r\naround 03Z and Dvorak intensity analyses from SAB and TAFB suggest\r\nthat Douglas has weakened to a tropical depression. With expected\r\ncontinued cool water and a stable atmosphere along its track, the\r\ncyclone should become a remnant low shortly.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northwestward at 8 kt.  A low to\r\nmid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast will continue to\r\nsteer Douglas toward the northwest or west-northwest at a slightly\r\nslower speed for the next two days until dissipation.  The track\r\nforecast is again nudged to the north of the previous advisory and\r\nis based upon the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 23.1N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 23.9N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 24.9N 121.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 25.8N 122.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Douglas","Adv":28,"Date":"2014-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP042014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCB\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014\r\n\r\nCorrected capitalization in last paragraph.\r\n\r\nDouglas remains devoid of deep convection, and since the sea\r\nsurface temperatures are below 22 deg C, there is little likelihood\r\nof the system making a comeback.  Therefore the system is being\r\ndeclared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory.  The large\r\ncirculation has been slow to spin down, but gradual weakening is\r\nanticipated with the cyclone expected to dissipate in about 72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion continues northwestward at about 8 kt.\r\nPost-tropical cyclone Douglas should continue to be steered by the\r\nflow on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.\r\nThe track guidance generally shows a turn toward the west-northwest\r\nwith a slight decrease in forward speed over the next couple of\r\ndays, and so does the official forecast.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low of Douglas, please see\r\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 23.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 24.4N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 25.4N 122.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 26.1N 123.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 26.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-06-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the low\r\npressure area offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico has\r\nbecome better organized overnight.  First-light visible imagery\r\nshows a partially exposed low-level center of circulation on the\r\nnorthwestern edge of a deep convective cloud mass due to strong\r\nnorthwesterly vertical wind shear.  In addition, ship A8ER9, the Zim\r\nSavannah, reported 50-knot winds somewhat above 10 meters at 0900\r\nUTC in the northwestern quadrant, and then reported 42 kt at 1200\r\nUTC in the southeastern quadrant after it passed through the center.\r\nBased primarily on the aforementioned ship data, the initial\r\nintensity estimate is set at 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/10.  Elida should move\r\nnorthwestward today, parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico,\r\nin response to a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending\r\nsouthwestward from the Gulf of Mexico. However, the forward motion\r\nof the storm should markedly decrease after that once the cyclone\r\nreaches a col area, with a west-southwestward or southwestward drift\r\nshown by global models in a day or two. The subtropical ridge is\r\nforecast to rebuild to the north of Elida later in the forecast\r\nperiod, which should allow for Elida to move westward away from the\r\ncoast at a faster forward speed.  The NHC track forecast is close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus TVCE but not as fast as the ECMWF by day\r\n5.\r\n\r\nAlthough the sea surface temperatures are very high along the track\r\nof Elida, strong upper-level northwesterly winds associated with an\r\nupper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should inhibit\r\nsignificant intensification during the next few days.  After about\r\n72 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease, but by then the cyclone\r\nshould be embedded in a somewhat drier and more stable\r\nenvironment. The NHC intensity forecast is near the multi-model\r\nconsensus IVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 17.3N 103.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 17.9N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 18.2N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 17.9N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 17.6N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-06-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the overall cloud pattern\r\nassociated with Elida has changed little, with the main convection\r\ndisplaced in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation due to\r\nmoderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. Despite the\r\nrather disheveled looking cloud appearance, two ASCAT passes at\r\n1606 UTC and 1700 UTC indicated that Elida still possessed a\r\nwell-defined circulation center and 45-kt winds in the southeastern\r\nquadrant. Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at\r\n45 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 295/03 kt. The\r\naforementioned ASCAT wind data indicate that Elida has slowed down\r\nconsiderably during the past 6 hours. Most of the reliable models\r\nhave been predicting that a sharp decrease in the forward speed\r\nwould occur in previous model runs, so the official forecast has\r\nfollowed this scenario for the next 48 hours since Elida now appears\r\nto be caught in a break in the east-west oriented subtropical ridge\r\nlocated across south-central Mexico. It is possible that Elida\r\ncould even stall and move erratically, but the cyclone and its\r\nstrongest winds are expected to remain offshore of the coast of\r\nMexico during the next 2 days. After that, the subtropical ridge is\r\nforecast to rebuild to the north of the cyclone, which should induce\r\na westward motion at a faster forward speed away from Mexico. The\r\nofficial track forecast is a little south of the previous advisory\r\ntrack, and is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nModerate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear is expected\r\nto affect the cyclone for at least the next 3 days, which should\r\nprevent any significant intensification from occurring despite the\r\nvery warm sea-surface temperatures and moist mid-level environment\r\nsurrounding the storm. By days 4 and 5, however, the shear is\r\nforecast to decrease significantly, which should allow for some\r\nstrengthening of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar\r\nto the multi-model consensus IVCN for the next 72 hours, and then\r\nfollows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance after that.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 17.4N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 17.6N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 17.6N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 17.5N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 17.2N 104.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 17.1N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 17.0N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 17.2N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-07-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 30 2014\r\n\r\nOverall, the organization of the tropical cyclone has changed little\r\nduring the past 6 to 12 hours.  The center briefly became exposed to\r\nthe northwest of the main convective mass this afternoon due to\r\nmoderate to strong northwesterly shear.  Since that time, a new\r\nburst of deep convection with very cold cloud tops has developed\r\nnear and over the the center.  The intitial intensity remains 45\r\nkt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number of 3.0 from TAFB\r\nand the earlier ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images show that Elida has slowed down considerably\r\ntoday, and the initial motion estimate is 290/2 kt.  The global\r\nmodel guidance indicates that Elida will remain within an area of\r\nweak steering currents during the next couple of days. During this\r\ntime, the tropical storm is expected to meander just offshore of the\r\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico. After that, a mid- to upper-level\r\nridge is forecast to build to the north of the cyclone, which should\r\ncause Elida to move westward at a faster forward speed.  The updated\r\nNHC track forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the\r\nprevious forecast during the first few days.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is expected during the next two to\r\nthree days while Elida remains within an area of moderate to\r\nstrong northwesterly shear.  After Elida begins moving westward\r\nlater in the period, the cyclone is forecast to move into an area\r\nof lower vertical wind shear, which could allow for some slight\r\nintensification.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the\r\nprevious forecast and is in good agreement with a blend of the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 17.4N 104.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 17.5N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 17.5N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 17.4N 104.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 17.3N 104.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 17.1N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 17.2N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-07-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Elida is that of a sheared cyclone, with cold\r\ncloud tops confined to an area just south of the center. This\r\nstructure is consistent with the 25 to 30 kt of northwesterly\r\nshear analyzed over the system. The initial intensity remains 45 kt\r\nbased on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nestimates. Overall, the environment is expected to remain marginal\r\nfor intensification for the next 2-3 days due to strong shear from\r\nthe outflow of Tropical Storm Douglas to the west and an upper-level\r\ntrough to the east of Elida. Most of the intensity guidance shows a\r\nweakening trend through about 72 hours, and this is reflected in the\r\nofficial forecast. After that time, there is the possibility for a\r\nlittle restrengthening as the shear decreases. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is a little above the latest intensity consensus and is\r\nclose to the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nIt appears that Elida has moved little over the past few hours,\r\nwith a southward drift seen in the latest geostationary imagery. The\r\ntrack model guidance is in reasonable agreement in showing a slow\r\nsoutheastward motion during the first 36 hours of the forecast\r\nperiod while steering currents remain weak. After that time, a\r\nmid-level ridge will build to the north of Elida, which should\r\ninduce a steadier westward motion by days 3 through 5. The NHC\r\nforecast is southeast of the previous one through 48 hours,\r\nfollowing the latest TVCE multi-model consensus, but is generally\r\nclose to the previous NHC track after that time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 17.4N 104.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 17.4N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 17.3N 104.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 17.1N 103.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 17.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 17.2N 105.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 17.3N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-07-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nStrong northwesterly wind shear continues over Elida, and\r\nsatellite imagery indicates that the low-level center is located on\r\nthe northern edge of the deep convection. Since the cloud pattern\r\nhas lost some organization since yesterday, the Dvorak T-numbers\r\nsuggest a weaker cyclone. The initial intensity has thus been\r\nlowered to 40 knots at this time. The shear over Elida is forecast\r\nto continue during the next couple of days, and consequently, no\r\nsignificant change in intensity is anticipated. Elida could\r\nre-strengthen a little when the shear relaxes beyond 72 hours. The\r\nofficial forecast is consistent with the intensity guidance which\r\nshows no important change in strength in 5 days.\r\n\r\nElida is trapped in very weak steering currents, and it has barely\r\nmoved during the past several hours. The steering flow is forecast\r\nby global models to remain weak during the next day or two, and\r\nlittle motion is anticipated during that period. A ridge is forecast\r\nto develop over Mexico beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force\r\nElida to begin slowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent\r\nwith the multi-model consensus trend.\r\n\r\nGiven the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has\r\nadjusted the area of the tropical storm warning, and if Elida\r\ncontinues to weaken as it moves away from the coast, the tropical\r\nstorm warning would likely be discontinued later today.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 17.4N 104.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 17.1N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 17.0N 104.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 17.0N 108.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 17.0N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Elida","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-07-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nStrong northwesterly wind shear persists over Elida, and the\r\ncyclone has become a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep\r\nconvection. Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and\r\non this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 knots.\r\nThese winds are probably confined to a small area to the north and\r\neast of the center. Global models indicate that the shear will\r\ncontinue and, in fact, most of them weaken Elida to a low or a\r\ntrough in a few days. The NHC forecast is along the line of such\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nElida continues to be trapped in very weak steering currents, and\r\nit has been drifting southeastward during the past several hours.\r\nThe steering flow is forecast by global models to remain weak during\r\nthe next day or two, and little motion is anticipated during that\r\nperiod. A ridge is forecast to develop over Mexico beyond 3 days,\r\nand this pattern should force Elida or its remnants to begin moving\r\nslowly westward away from Mexico. This is consistent with the\r\nmulti-model consensus trend.\r\n\r\nThe government of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm\r\nwarning, however, a few strong squalls could still affect the\r\ncoast during the next 12 to 24 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 17.2N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 17.0N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 103.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 16.9N 104.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 17.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 17.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Elida","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 01 2014\r\n\r\nElida remains a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of any deep\r\nconvection.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt,\r\nclose to a blend of the latest T/CI numbers from TAFB.  Strong\r\nnorthwesterly shear over Elida should continue to weaken the\r\nsystem.  Model guidance is in good agreement on this solution,\r\nand the new NHC intensity prediction is very close to the previous\r\none.  The only significant change is to show remnant low status\r\nwithin 24 hours.  Given the lack of convection, however,\r\nElida could become a remnant low even sooner than forecast.\r\n\r\nElida is moving a little faster toward the southeast this evening -\r\nroughly 135/3 - an unusual motion for an eastern Pacific cyclone\r\nin July.   The depression or its remnants will likely move\r\nsouthward by late tomorrow, then westward by Thursday due to a\r\nbuilding low-level ridge over the eastern Pacific.  Model guidance\r\nhas shifted southward on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is moved\r\nin that direction.  The small cyclone should degenerate into a\r\ntrough in 3-4 days, which is in line with the global models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 17.0N 103.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 16.7N 103.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 16.4N 103.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 16.2N 103.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 16.1N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Elida","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP052014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052014\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 02 2014\r\n\r\nElida has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more\r\nthan 12 hours, and there currently isn't even a thunderstorm within\r\n250 nmi of the center. Therefore, Elida is now declared a remnant\r\nlow, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane\r\nCenter on this system.\r\n\r\nThe initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on a 02/0348 UTC\r\nASCAT-B overpass, which indicated that 26-kt winds existed in the\r\nsouthern quadrant. The remnant low is drifting east-southeastward to\r\nsoutheastward at around 2 kt. The low is expected to meander\r\noffshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico today before turning\r\nwestward on Thursday, and continue moving in that direction until it\r\ndissipates in a couple of days. Although the ocean is very warm\r\nand the atmosphere is quite moist, hostile northwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear of near 30 kt is expected to prevent regeneration into\r\na tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header\r\nNFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 16.9N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 16.7N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 16.6N 102.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 16.6N 103.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-07-07 22:30:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n330 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure located about 1000 nmi southwest of the\r\nsouthern tip of Baja California has acquired enough organized\r\nconvection near the well-defined low-level circulation center to be\r\nclassified as a tropical cyclone. Although convection has been\r\nwaxing and waning over the past 12 hours or so, a new burst of deep\r\nconvection with cloud tops as cold as -83C have developed near and\r\njust south of the center. The system is being designated as\r\nTropical Storm Fausto based on wind data from two earlier ASCAT\r\npasses at 1704 UTC and 1757 UTC that indicated reliable wind speed\r\nof 35-38 kt in the southeastern quadrant. Upper-level outflow is\r\ngood and continues to expand in all quadrants.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt and is based primarily on\r\nmicrowave satellite data. Fausto is expected to move westward for\r\nthe next day or so and then turn toward the west-northwest after\r\nthat as the cyclone moves along the southern periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer subtropical ridge to its north. By Days 4 and 5, a\r\nweakness is forecast by all of the global models to develop between\r\n140W-150W longitude, which should allow Fausto to turn more toward\r\nthe northwest. Although some of the models show the cyclone turning\r\ninto the ridge and beginning to recurve, the official forecast only\r\nshows a slight stair-step in the track since the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels show the ridge building back westward at the end of the Day 5\r\nperiod. The official advisory track is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels since they have a better depiction of the small tropical\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nFausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment consisting\r\nof low vertical wind shear, a moist mid-level regime, and over\r\nsea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for at least the next 72\r\nhours. These conditions should allow for at least some gradual\r\nstrengthening to occur, and the official forecast closely follows a\r\nblend of the GFS-based SHIPS and LGEM models. However, those\r\nintensity forecasts are based on the medium BAM model, which takes\r\nthe cyclone well north of the official forecast track and into\r\nstrong shear conditions and over colder water by Days 4 and 5. If\r\nFausto fallows a low-latitude track as indicated by the NHC\r\nforecast, then strengthening rather than weakening could occur in\r\nthe latter periods.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2230Z  9.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z  9.7N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 10.0N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 10.7N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 11.5N 130.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 12.6N 136.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 14.7N 140.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 16.0N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 07 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern associated with Tropical Storm Fausto\r\nhas continued to improve with numerous small curved bands having\r\ndeveloped in the northern semicircle, while a large curved band has\r\npersisted in the southern semicircle. The upper-level outflow is\r\ngood to excellent, and it has continued to expand and become more\r\nsymmetrical. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt\r\nbased on the improved cloud pattern, a 1757 UTC ASCAT-B overpass\r\nthat showed a peak surface wind of 38 kt in the southeastern\r\nquadrant, and also the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT satellite intensity\r\nestimates of T2.8/41 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/10 kt. The forecast track was\r\nshifted to the right of the previous advisory track, but the\r\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged. Fausto should move westward to\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so as the cyclone skirts\r\nthe southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north\r\nalong 24N-25N latitude. By Days 4 and 5, a mid-tropospheric trough\r\nis forecast to dig southward from the north-central Pacific and\r\nweaken the ridge between 140W-150W longitude, causing Fausto to turn\r\nmore northwestward toward the weakness or break in the ridge. As the\r\ncyclone gains latitude, it is expected to encounter increasing\r\nwesterly to southwesterly vertical wind shear and cooler waters by\r\nDays 4 and 5, which should weaken the system and cause it to become\r\nmore shallow and be steered more westward by the strong low-level\r\neasterly trade wind flow. The official forecast track is south of\r\nthe consensus model TCVE due to expected weak northwesterly\r\nmid-level wind shear impinging on the vortex column and keeping it\r\nfarther south closer to the deep convection. This complex steering\r\npattern is depicted well by the HWRF model, which initialized Fausto\r\nmuch better than the other models, and shows a deeper vortex\r\nthroughout the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFausto is expected to remain in a favorable environment of wind\r\nshear less than 10 kt, mid-level moisture greater than 70 percent,\r\nand sea-surface temperatures in excess of 28C for the next 48 hours\r\nor so, which should result in at least gradual strengthening. The\r\nHWRF model makes Fausto a hurricane in about 48 hours, which isn't\r\nentirely out of the question if convection can wrap around the north\r\nside of the low-level center, resulting in a stronger and better\r\ndeveloped vortex column. For now, however, the official intensity\r\nforecast remains similar to the previous advisory and closely\r\nfollows the intensity consensus model IVCN due to modest mid-level\r\nshear undercutting the favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which\r\nis expected to inhibit development somewhat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z  9.6N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z  9.9N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 10.5N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 11.2N 127.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 12.1N 129.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 13.8N 135.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 15.5N 139.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 16.8N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's cloud pattern\r\nappears well organized, with plenty of cold-topped convection and a\r\nlong band wrapping around the western and southern side of the\r\ncirculation.  However, a couple of ASCAT passes suggest that the\r\ncyclone's satellite presentation is misleading, as the low-level\r\ncenter is located near or outside of the northwestern edge of the\r\nmain convective mass. This structure makes sense with UW-CIMSS shear\r\nanalyses that show 10 to 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear\r\naffecting the cyclone.  One of the ASCAT passes showed believable\r\n37-knot winds about 60 n mi southeast of the center, so the initial\r\nintensity is maintained at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/12.  Although Fausto has not\r\ngained much latitude yet, the track guidance shows the cyclone\r\nmoving west-northwestward while it approaches the western periphery\r\nof a subtropical ridge and nears a weakness along 130w longitude.\r\nThe latter feature is forecast to lift northward while retrograding,\r\nwhich should allow for enough ridging to keep Fausto on a west-\r\nnorthwestward heading until day 4 or 5.  By that time, the cyclone\r\nis expected to weaken considerably and become shallower, which\r\nshould result in a more westerly motion.  The NHC track forecast\r\nis only slighty to the left of the previous one and a bit faster.\r\nThe NHC track forecast continues to favor the left side of the\r\nguidance envelope and is closest to the HWRF, which had a better\r\ninitialization of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nExcept for some modest northwesterly or north-northwesterly shear,\r\nthe large-scale environment is generally expected to be suitable for\r\nintensification over the short term.  Beyond two days, thermodynamic\r\nconditions are forecast to gradually become less favorable and\r\nthe shear is likely to increase considerably after 72 hours.  These\r\nnegative factors should result in weakening after a couple of days.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is unchanged relative to the previous\r\nforecast and is near the mult-model consensus.  It should be noted\r\nthat the global models continue to depict Fausto as a weak feature\r\nthat does not intensify further during the forecast period.  Thus a\r\nplausible alternate scenario is for Fausto to degenerate into an\r\nopen trough within a few days for reasons unknown.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z  9.5N 122.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z  9.9N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 10.6N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 11.5N 129.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 12.3N 131.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 14.3N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 16.0N 141.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 17.0N 145.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014\r\n\r\nFausto's cloud pattern has not become better organized over the\r\npast few hours, with little evidence of banding features.  The\r\ncenter is not easy to locate, even on first-light visible images,\r\nbut microwave imagery suggest that it is near the northern edge of\r\nthe main area of deep convection.  The current intensity is held at\r\n40 kt, but this may be generous in light of the latest subjective\r\nand objective Dvorak estimates.  The upper-level outflow is\r\nwell-defined except over the northwest quadrant of the storm.  The\r\ntropical cyclone should be moving through a light vertical shear and\r\nwarm ocean environment for the next couple of days, which would\r\nfavor intensification. However, the air mass ahead of Fausto appears\r\nto be drier and more stable, and this would hinder strengthening.\r\nGlobal models such as the GFS and ECMWF continue to show the system\r\nweakening over the next several days, and this is likely due to the\r\nunfavorable thermodynamic factors. The official intensity forecast\r\nis a little more conservative than the previous ones, and close to\r\nthe model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be slightly north of west, or\r\n280/12.  There is little change to the track forecast reasoning.  A\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge to the north of Fausto should result in a\r\ngenerally west-northwestward track for the next several days.  By\r\ndays 3-5, a weakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees\r\nwest longitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to\r\nthe right.  At the end of the forecast period, it is expected\r\nthat Fausto will be weakening and turning more westward in the\r\nlower-tropospheric steering flow.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z  9.7N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 10.3N 125.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 11.0N 127.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 11.9N 130.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 12.9N 133.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 14.8N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 16.5N 142.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 17.5N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Fausto has changed little during the past\r\nseveral hours, with the low-level center located near the northern\r\nedge of the main convective mass.  A recent ASCAT overpass shows\r\nthat the circulation is poorly defined on the western side, and\r\nthere are no tropical-storm-force winds except in the southeastern\r\nquadrant. The initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt\r\nsince the ASCAT did not fully sample the southeastern quadrant.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 280/13.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of Fausto should continue to result in a generally\r\nwest-northwestward track for the next day or two.   By days 2-4, a\r\nweakness in the ridge in the vicinity of 140-145 degrees west\r\nlongitude should cause some deceleration and a slight turn to the\r\nright.  By the end of the forecast period, it is expected that a\r\nweakening Fausto will be turning more westward in the lower-level\r\ntrade wind flow.  The new track forecast is just a little to the\r\nleft of and slightly faster than the previous forecast, and it lies\r\nin the middle of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFausto should be over warm sea surface temperatures and in an area\r\nof light vertical wind shear for about 48 hours.  While these\r\nconditions are favorable, microwave satellite data and water vapor\r\nimagery show significant dry air near the cyclone.  This, combined\r\nwith the current structure, suggests that strengthening should be\r\nslow at best.  After 48 hours, increasing northwesterly shear and\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should\r\ncause Fausto to weaken.  The new intensity forecast calls for a\r\nslower strengthening and a quicker weakening than the previous\r\nforecast, which is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 10.0N 124.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 10.5N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 11.4N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 12.2N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 13.3N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 15.0N 140.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 17.0N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fausto","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 08 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery indicates that the center of Fausto has\r\npulled northwestward away from the main convective cloud mass and\r\nis now fully exposed in the middle of the larger scale cyclonic\r\ngyre. The initial intensity has been decreased to 35 kt based on\r\nsatellite current intensity estimates of 35 kt and 39 kt from TAFB\r\nand UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/16 kt, which is a 12-hour average motion.\r\nA recent northwestward jog in the track is believed to be a\r\ntemporary motion, and Fausto is expected to turn back toward the\r\nwest-northwest fairly soon. A strong ridge to the north of the\r\ncyclone is expected to keep Fausto moving west-northwestward for the\r\nfor the next 72 hours. After that, the cyclone is expected to\r\nweaken and become vertically shallow, being steered more westward\r\nby the brisk low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track\r\nis a little to the right of and faster than the previous advisory,\r\nmainly due to the more northward initial position, and is similar\r\nto the consensus model TCVE.\r\n\r\nFausto is experiencing light deep-layer vertical wind shear of less\r\nthan 5 kt and the mid-level shear is only around 5 kt, so the sudden\r\ndevelopment of an exposed low-level circulation is perplexing.\r\nHowever, various water vapor products and microwave satellite\r\nimagery suggest that dry mid-level air has intruded into the inner\r\ncore, disrupting the deep convection and allowing the low-level\r\nvortex to briefly decouple from the mid- and upper-level\r\ncirculations. Further exacerbating these unfavorable conditions is\r\na large disturbance located about 800 nmi to the northeast of the\r\ncyclone, which has been deflecting some of the southerly low-level\r\ninflow away from Fausto and into that system. The global models\r\nindicate that the shear will remain light for another 24 hours or\r\nso, and that Fausto and the aforementioned disturbance will begin to\r\nseparate from each other in about 12 hours or so, which could allow\r\nfor some slight re-strengthening. By 72 hours and beyond, however,\r\nnorthwesterly wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt,\r\ninducing significant weakening while the cyclone also moves over\r\ncooler water. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous\r\nadvisory forecast, and closely follows the intensity consensus\r\nmodels IVCN and ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 11.0N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 11.7N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 12.5N 131.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 13.4N 134.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 14.2N 137.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 16.0N 142.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 17.4N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0000Z 18.4N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fausto","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014\r\n\r\nFausto has continued to lose organization overnight.  The deep\r\nconvection associated with the tropical cyclone has become\r\ndisorganized and appears to be separated from the center that was\r\ntracked in the last few visible satellite images.  Recent ASCAT\r\ndata suggest that the circulation has become elongated from\r\nnortheast to southwest and that it has possibly become an open\r\ntrough of low pressure.  The highest believable winds from the\r\nASCAT passes were 25 to 30 kt to the northeast of the alleged\r\ncenter.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to\r\n30 kt.\r\n\r\nDespite being located in a low shear environment and over warm\r\nwater, Fausto has likely weakened during the past 24 hours due to\r\nthe entrainment of dry mid-level air.  Although Fausto is forecast\r\nto remain over warm water and in low shear for another 24 hours,\r\npoor thermodynamic factors should prevent restrengthening.  After\r\nthat time, westerly shear is forecast to increase which should\r\ncause the final demise of Fausto, if it does not occur sooner.  One\r\nvery possible scenario is for the circulation to dissipate and\r\nbecome an open trough within the next 24 hours.  This solution\r\nis generally favored by the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 285 degrees at 16\r\nkt. Fausto should continue moving west-northwestward to westward\r\nduring the next several days to the south of a strong low- to\r\nmid-level ridge.  The track guidance agrees on this scenario but has\r\nshifted southward this cycle.  Since the updated NHC intensity\r\nforecast predicts a weaker and shallower system, it is more likely\r\nthat Fausto or its remnants will move more westward.  As a result,\r\nthe NHC track has been adjusted southward.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 11.4N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 11.9N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 12.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 13.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 13.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 14.5N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Fausto","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP062014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062014\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 09 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery, overnight scatterometer data, and a recent GPM\r\nmicrowave overpass indicate that Fausto has degenerated to a trough\r\nof low pressure.  The remnants of the cyclone are expected to\r\ncontinue a general west-northwestward motion for the next several\r\ndays through an area of increasing vertical wind shear and\r\nmid-level dry air.  This combination is likely to prevent\r\nregeneration.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued on Fausto by the National Hurricane\r\nCenter.  For additional information on the remnants, please see\r\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 11.7N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection began developing near the center of the low\r\npressure system located near 134W roughly around 0000 UTC.  The\r\nconvection has persisted since that time, has become more organized,\r\nand appears to at least partially cover the low-level center.  A\r\n0553 UTC ASCAT-B pass suggests that the circulation may still be a\r\nlittle elongated from east to west, but the center is sufficiently\r\nwell defined.  The ASCAT data also showed an area of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds to the north and east of the center.\r\nBased on this information, advisories are being initiated on\r\nTropical Storm Genevieve.\r\n\r\nGenevieve is located to the south of a break in the subtropical\r\nridge and still appears to be embedded within the Intertropical\r\nConvergence Zone, which is probably preventing it from making much\r\nnorthward progress.  The initial motion is 275/9 kt.  The break in\r\nthe ridge should cause Genevieve to decelerate during the next 24\r\nhours, but it should then gradually regain speed after 36 hours.\r\nThere is some noticeable spread among the track models, with the\r\nGFDL and GFS taking a stronger Genevieve on a more northern track\r\nand the ECMWF showing the storm gaining very little latitude.  Given\r\nGenevieve's attachment to the ITCZ, a more southern track wouldn't\r\nbe surprising.  The official forecast is near the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope and just to the south of the model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe upper-level environment is only marginally conducive for\r\nfurther strengthening during the next 36 hours or so.  A band of\r\nstrong upper-level westerly winds is located not too far to the\r\nnorth of Genevieve, and any northward progress would likely bring\r\nthe storm into a higher-shear environment.  There is more certainty\r\nthat vertical shear will increase by 48 hours, and Genevieve is\r\ntherefore forecast to gradually weaken after that time, likely\r\nbecoming a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is very close to the intensity consensus\r\nICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 12.2N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 12.3N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 12.4N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 12.6N 137.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 12.9N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 13.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 14.0N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 14.5N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that upper-level westerly winds are\r\nimpinging on the cyclone, and the low-level center continues to\r\nbe located to the west of the convection as indicated by the latest\r\nSSMI pass.  Additional analysis of an earlier ASCAT data indicate\r\nthat winds associated with Genevieve are 40 knots in a small area to\r\nthe northeast of the center. This is the intensity assigned to the\r\nstorm at this time, and it was probably the intensity 6 hours ago.\r\nGenevieve appears to have reached it's peak intensity. No further\r\nstrengthening is anticipated since a band of very strong upper-level\r\nwesterly winds already to the north of the cyclone is forecast by\r\nmost of the global models to move closer to Genevieve. This should\r\nresult in shear and weakening. Neither statistical nor dynamical\r\nmodels forecast a significant intensification of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nGenevieve is moving westward at 9 knots. The cyclone is embedded\r\nwithin weak steering currents as a small trough in the westerlies\r\nswings eastward breaking the subtropical ridge. However, the ridge\r\nis forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves out, and this\r\npattern will keep Genevieve on a general westward track for the next\r\n5 days.  During the latter portion of the forecast, the cyclone will\r\nlikely become a shallow post-tropical cyclone, steered westward by\r\nthe low-level flow. This is the solution provided by most of the\r\ntrack models, and the official forecast is basically on top of the\r\nmulti-model consensus guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 12.3N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 12.4N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 12.6N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 13.0N 138.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 13.4N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 13.8N 143.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 14.0N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z 14.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of the cyclone is located to the west of the\r\nconvection due to westerly wind shear. The cloud pattern is not\r\nwell organized with the outflow very limited at this time.\r\nT-numbers are still 2.5 on the Dvorak scale, and a recent\r\nscatterometer overpass still indicates 35-40 kt winds.  The initial\r\nintensity is thus kept at 40 knots. Global models as well as\r\nstatistical guidance continue to forecast an unfavorable environment\r\nnear the cyclone. In addition, the cyclone is heading to an area of\r\nlower sea surface temperatures. This should result in gradual\r\nweakening during the next few days.\r\n\r\nGenevieve has slowed down a little bit and is now moving westward at\r\n6 knots.  An eastward-moving trough in the westerlies is weakening\r\nthe subtropical ride north of the cyclone, and consequently, the\r\ncyclone is forecast to decrease in forward speed during the next day\r\nor so. The ridge is forecast to rebuild westward as the trough moves\r\nout, and this pattern will keep Genevieve on a general west to\r\nwest-northwest track for the next 5 days.  During the latter portion\r\nof the forecast, the cyclone will likely become a shallow\r\npost-tropical cyclone, steered westward by the low-level flow. The\r\nofficial forecast continues very close to the multi-model consensus\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 12.2N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 12.3N 136.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 12.5N 137.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 12.9N 139.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 13.3N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 13.8N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 14.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z 14.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014\r\n\r\nGenevieve has a ragged appearance in satellite imagery this\r\nevening.  The central convection has diminished somewhat over the\r\npast few hours, and it is displaced to the east of the low-level\r\ncenter by 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear.  The initial\r\nintensity of 40 kt is based on earlier scatterometer data, along\r\nwith 35 kt satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The\r\nwind radii have been revised based on the scatterometer data.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a possibly generous 270/4, as the center has\r\nnot moved much since the last advisory.  A mid/upper-level trough\r\nnorth of the cyclone has broken the subtropical ridge and left\r\nGenevieve in an area of light steering currents.  The global models\r\nforecast the trough to move northeastward and weaken, allowing the\r\nsubtropical ridge to re-develop north of Genevieve.  The track\r\nguidance is showing a little more spread than 6 hours ago, as the\r\n18Z GFS is showing a more northerly motion than its previous run.\r\nHowever, the center of the guidance envelope is essentially\r\nunchanged from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is\r\nclose to the previous track.  The new track is also near the various\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast has become a little more puzzling.  The\r\nglobal models now forecast the current shear to diminish during the\r\nnext 24-36 hours, and by the end of the forecast period Genevieve\r\ncould be in an area of light northeasterly shear. However, the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM models do not respond much to the more favorable\r\nenvironment and generally call for the cyclone to gradually weaken.\r\nThe GFDL and HWRF models forecast a stronger storm than the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM, and the new GFS also shows a stronger cyclone than its\r\nprevious run. Given the divergent guidance, and the possibility that\r\nthe current shear could destroy the storm before it diminishes, the\r\nnew intensity forecast will change only slightly from the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 12.2N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 12.3N 136.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 12.5N 138.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 12.8N 139.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 13.1N 141.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 13.5N 145.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 14.0N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 14.0N 151.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nGenevieve's deep convection weakened considerably since the last\r\nadvisory up until about 0630 UTC when a new burst began developing\r\nto the east of the center.  Based on the poor convective\r\norganization, satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB have decreased,\r\nand the initial intensity is therefore lowered to 35 kt.\r\nGenevieve's future intensity remains highly uncertain.  Strong\r\nwesterly shear is likely to continue for another 36 hours or so,\r\nafter which time the upper-level environment could become less\r\nhostile.  The GFS and GFDL models continue to show Genevieve\r\nmaintaining or increasing in intensity while the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels suggest that the cyclone will become a remnant low or\r\ndissipate sometime during the next 5 days.  If Genevieve remains\r\nembedded within the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which is a\r\ndistinct possibility, then a weaker cyclone would be the more likely\r\nscenario.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the\r\nintensity consensus ICON and just a little lower than the previous\r\nforecast during the first 48 hours to account for the new initial\r\nintensity.\r\n\r\nGenevieve remains within the ITCZ and has been unable to gain any\r\nlatitude.  The initial motion is 270/4 kt, and the storm is likely\r\nto continue a westward heading and accelerate during the next day\r\nor so due to a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north.  There\r\nis not much spread among the track guidance although the models\r\nhave trended toward a faster forward motion.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast is therefore a bit faster than the previous forecast and\r\nthe model consensus TVCE, mainly during the first 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 12.2N 136.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 12.3N 137.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 12.5N 139.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 12.7N 141.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 13.0N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 13.5N 146.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 14.0N 149.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 14.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection to the east of the exposed low-level center has been\r\npulsating during the past several hours. Earlier ASCAT data suggest\r\nthat the circulation is becoming elongated, and based on Dvorak\r\nclassifications, the intensity has been lowered to 30 knots at this\r\ntime.  Most of the global models...primarily the ECMWF, show\r\nunfavorable upper-level winds over the depression, and this pattern\r\nshould result in gradual weakening. In addition, both intensity\r\nconsensus and LGEM models call for weakening, and so does the\r\nofficial forecast. Some small fluctuations in intensity are\r\npossible before the depression becomes a remnant low in about 3\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nThe depression is still embedded in the ITCZ, and has been moving\r\nslowly westward or 270 degrees at 4 knots. However, as the\r\ndepression weakens and becomes a shallow system, it should be\r\nsteered by the low-level flow on the south side of the subtropical\r\nridge with an increase in forward speed.  This forecast is very\r\nsimilar to the previous one and is very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 12.2N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 12.2N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 12.3N 139.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 12.4N 141.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 13.5N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 14.0N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1200Z 14.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nStrong westerly wind shear has become established over Genevieve\r\nand the low-level center is now completely detached from the\r\nremaining disorganized convection. The initial intensity is kept at\r\n30 knots at this time, but given the current satellite presentation\r\nand the hostile environment expected to prevail, the NHC forecast\r\ncalls for additional weakening. Genevieve could become a remnant low\r\nas soon as tonight.  If the low survives a few days, there is a\r\nsmall chance of regeneration in the Central Pacific where the\r\nupper-level environment could become a little more favorable.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at 7 knots, and since it has\r\nbecome a shallow cyclone, it is now being steered by the low-level\r\nflow south of the subtropical ridge. Global models indicate that\r\nthis subtropical ridge will not change much in position or\r\nstrength. This pattern should keep the depression or its remnants\r\nmoving generally westward for the next several days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 12.4N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 12.5N 139.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 12.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 12.7N 142.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 14.0N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 14.0N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1800Z 14.5N 153.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nThe circulation of Genevieve was briefly devoid of deep convection\r\nearlier this evening, however a recent convective burst near the\r\ncenter has allowed the depression to maintain its status as a\r\ntropical cyclone.  The initial intensity remains 30 knots based on\r\na Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Despite the recent slight increase in\r\nconvective activity, Genevieve remains embedded within a strongly\r\nsheared and drying environment and is forecast to become a\r\nremnant low as soon as tomorrow morning.  Several models, most\r\nnotably the GFS, HWRF and GFDL, suggest that regeneration is\r\npossible in a couple days after the low moves into the Central\r\nPacific and into a lower-shear environment.  However given the\r\nhostile current state of the near-storm environment, the official\r\nforecast reflects the UKMET and ECMWF forecast of a shallow remnant\r\nlow persisting throughout the next 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe depression is accelerating westward at 9 knots, and continues to\r\nbe steered by low-level easterly flow south of the subtropical\r\nridge.  The dynamical models unanimously suggest that this general\r\nmotion should continue for the next 48-72 hours.  After that, there\r\nis some disagreement whether the system will begin to turn toward\r\nthe northwest or remain on a westward heading.  The official\r\nforecast splits these scenarios and lies near the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nGenevieve is forecast to be located very near 140W at 0600 UTC.\r\nForecast advisories on Genevieve will be issued by the Central\r\nPacific Hurricane Center after that longitude threshold is crossed.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 12.5N 139.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 12.6N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 12.7N 142.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 13.0N 144.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 13.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 14.0N 148.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 14.5N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z 15.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Genevieve","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP072014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014\r\n\r\nGenevieve continues to battle westerly shear.  The low-level center\r\nremains exposed to the west of the deep convection, which has been\r\npulsating during the past several hours.  The initial intensity is\r\nheld at 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from\r\nTAFB.  The official forecast calls for little change in strength\r\nduring the next several days.  Although the strength of the system\r\nis not expected to change much, the depression is anticipated to\r\nbecome a remnant low in the next 24 h due to the continued\r\ninfluence of shear and dry air.  Regeneration into a tropical\r\ncyclone is possible, however, in a couple of days when the system\r\nmoves into a more favorable atmospheric environment.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side\r\nof a low- to mid-level ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is\r\nexpected during the next 24 to 48 hours, and that motion should\r\npersist through the remainder of the forecast period. The official\r\ntrack forecast is slightly slower than the previous one and near the\r\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nGenevieve has crossed 140W longitude and, therefore, the next\r\nadvisory on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center. Forecast discussions can be found under AWIPS\r\nheader HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA42 PHFO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 12.4N 140.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 12.4N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 12.7N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 13.1N 144.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 13.4N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 13.9N 148.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 14.3N 149.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z 14.9N 151.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that\r\nconvection associated with a low pressure system located about 350\r\nn mi southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has increased and banding\r\nfeatures have also improved during the past 6 hours. Therefore,\r\nadvisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The\r\ninitial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 28-30 kt surface wind\r\nvectors noted in the eastern quadrant of the low in 0350 UTC\r\nASCAT-B and 0436 UTC ASCAT-A scatterometer data. This intensity is\r\nalso supported by a T2.0 Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/12 kt, which is\r\nbased primarily on microwave fixes over the past 12 hours. The\r\ndepression is moving northwestward along the southwestern\r\nperiphery of a strong mid-level ridge located over the\r\nsouthwestern and south-central United States, and this general\r\nmotion is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or so. After\r\nthat time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over\r\nmuch cooler waters.  As a result, the system is expected to become\r\nmore vertically shallow and be steered westward by the strong\r\neasterly low-level trade wind flow. The official forecast track is\r\nsimilar to but a little north of the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Eight-E is currently in a low vertical wind\r\nshear environment and over SSTs greater than 29C. Those favorable\r\nconditions are expected to continue for at least the next 24-30\r\nhours, which should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen at the\r\ntypical rate of 20 kt per day. However, due to vertical shear values\r\nof less than 3 kt expected for the next 12-18 hours, it would not\r\nsurprise me if the system undergoes a period of rapid\r\nintensification during that time. The official intensity forecast is\r\nslightly higher than all of the available intensity guidance due to\r\nthe favorable shear and thermodynamic conditions expected during the\r\nnext 24 hours, and the current compact structure of the tropical\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 13.4N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 14.7N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 16.4N 110.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 17.9N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 19.2N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 21.2N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 22.0N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression has not changed much during the past\r\nseveral hours.  Although the system is producing a considerable\r\namount of deep convection, it is mainly confined to the north side\r\nof the cyclone and is not wrapping around the center.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates.  The environment is currently favorable for the\r\ndepression to strengthen, but it is not expected to remain that way\r\nfor very long.  In about 2 days, the cyclone will be moving over\r\ncooler waters and into an atmosphere of stronger shear and dry air.\r\nThe models show less strengthening this cycle, and the official\r\nintensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one based on\r\nthis guidance.\r\n\r\nThe system is moving northwestward at about 13 kt.  A slightly\r\nfaster west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during\r\nthe next couple of days while the cyclone remains embedded in the\r\nfast flow on the southwest side of a strong mid-level ridge over the\r\nsouthern United States.  A gradual turn toward the west with a\r\ndecrease in forward speed is expected beyond a few days when the\r\nweakening cyclone becomes steered by the lighter low-level flow.\r\nThe models are tightly clustered, and the official track forecast\r\nis essentially an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 14.4N 107.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 15.7N 109.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 18.7N 114.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 21.6N 120.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1200Z 22.0N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that the depression has strengthened.  The\r\ncloud pattern has become better organized during the past several\r\nhours with banding features now more distinct and symmetric around\r\nthe center.  A recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds near 35 kt,\r\nand Dvorak classifications from TAFB and UW-CIMSS also support a\r\nsimilar wind speed.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Hernan.\r\n\r\nSome additional strengthening appears likely during the next day or\r\nso while the environmental conditions remain favorable.  Beyond that\r\ntime, however, Hernan will be moving over cooler water and into an\r\natmosphere of stronger shear and dry air.  These expected hostile\r\nconditions should cause the storm to lose strength.  The intensity\r\nguidance has not changed significantly, and this forecast is an\r\nupdate of the previous one.\r\n\r\nHernan is moving northwestward at about 13 kt on the southwest side\r\nof a strong mid-level ridge centered over the southern United\r\nStates.  This steering pattern is expected to persist, and that\r\nshould keep the system moving west-northwestward to northwestward at\r\nabout the same speed for the next couple of days.  After that time,\r\na gradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is\r\nexpected when the weakening cyclone is steered by the lighter\r\nlow-level flow.  The models have shifted northward this cycle, and\r\nthe official track forecast is adjusted in that direction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 15.4N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 16.7N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 18.3N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 19.7N 114.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 20.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 22.6N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1800Z 23.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Hernan has become better organized\r\nthis evening.  A central dense overcast has formed with cloud tops\r\nto -75C, and a mid-level eye is present in recent AMSU and SSM/IS\r\noverpasses.  Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt and 45 kt from\r\nSAB and TAFB.  In addition, the ADT, AMSU, and SATCON techniques\r\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin all estimate an\r\nintensity of 45-50 kt.  The initial intensity is increased to 45 kt,\r\nand this could be a little conservative.  The cirrus outflow is good\r\nto excellent over the northern semicircle and fair to poor\r\nelsewhere.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 320/12, with Hernan being steered along the\r\nsouthwest side of a strong mid-level ridge centered over the\r\nsouthern United States.  This pattern is expected to persist, and\r\nit should keep Hernan moving northwestward to west-northwestward\r\nat about the same speed for the next couple of days. After that, a\r\ngradual turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is\r\nexpected as the weakening cyclone is steered mainly by low-level\r\nflow.  The models have again shifted a little northward, and the\r\nofficial track forecast is again nudged in that direction.\r\n\r\nThe forecast track keeps Hernan over sea surface temperatures of\r\n29C for the next 18-24 hours.  This, combined with a light vertical\r\nwind shear environment, should allow continued strengthening during\r\nthis time.  Based on current trends, the intensity forecast has\r\nbeen nudged upward and now shows Hernan near hurricane strength\r\nin 24 hours.  There is a possibility that the cyclone could get\r\nstronger than this, as the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS\r\nmodel shows a 30 percent chance of 30 kt of strengthening during the\r\nnext 24 hours. After 24-36 hours, decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures and increasing shear should cause Hernan to steadily\r\nweaken.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 16.2N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 17.5N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 18.9N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 20.2N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 21.5N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 23.0N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 23.5N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z 23.5N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate\r\nthat Hernan has continued to strengthen. A small central dense\r\novercast has persisted over the center during the past 6 hours, and\r\n0418 UTC and 0510 UTC ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B overpasses indicated\r\nsurface winds of 48 kt and 51 kt, respectively, were present just\r\neast of center. Assuming that the coarse resolution ASCAT data has\r\nunder-sampled the rather small and tight inner core wind field, the\r\ninitial intensity has been increased to 55 kt. This intensity is\r\nsupported by satellite intensity estimates of 55 kt from TAFB and 56\r\nkt from UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is northwestward or 310/12 kt. Hernan is\r\nbeing steered along the southwestern periphery of a strong\r\nsubtropical ridge located across the southwestern and southern\r\nUnited States. This persistent steering pattern is expected to\r\nkeep Hernan moving in a general northwestward direction for the\r\nnext 2-3 days, followed by a turn toward the west when the cyclone\r\nweakens and is steered primarily the by low-level easterly trade\r\nwind flow.  Although the models have again shifted slightly\r\nnorthward, the new NHC track forecast is just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track and lies along the southern edge of the\r\nguidance envelope due to the expected quicker weakening than what\r\nthe more northerly track GFS and GFDL models are forecasting.\r\n\r\nHernan has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12 hours, which is a\r\nfaster-than-normal rate of intensification. The cyclone has about\r\nanother 12 hours or so of favorable conditions that could allow\r\nHernan to achieve hurricane strength. After that, however,\r\nincreasing westerly vertical wind shear should induce at least\r\nsome weakening until around 48 hours, at which time more rapid\r\nweakening is expected as the the system moves over sub-25C SSTs.\r\nBy Days 4 and 5, decreasing sea surface temperatures and even\r\nstronger shear should cause Hernan to degenerate into a remnant low\r\npressure system.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 16.9N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 18.1N 111.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 19.6N 114.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 22.1N 118.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 23.3N 122.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 23.6N 125.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z 23.6N 128.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014\r\n\r\nEnhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and an earlier GCOM-W1 (AMSR2)\r\nmicrowave overpass indicate that Hernan has continued to strengthen\r\nthis morning.  The imagery shows an impressive well-developed\r\nbanding feature over the northwest quadrant of the cyclone with -80\r\nto -90 deg C cloud tops, while the microwave pass reveals a more\r\ndistinct inner core with a partial eyewall feature.  Based on a\r\nblend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and the\r\nlatest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate, the NHC initial intensity is raised\r\nto 60 kt.\r\n\r\nCurrent favorable environmental conditions should allow for further\r\nintensification during the next 8-12 hours, and Hernan still has a\r\nchance to become a hurricane today or tonight.  Afterward,\r\nincreasing westerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures\r\nare expected to weaken Hernan through the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The available statistical/dynamical guidance agree with\r\nweakening Hernan into a remnant low in 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/13 kt.\r\nHernan continues to be steered by the mid-level southeasterly flow\r\nproduced by a ridge over the southwestern United States.  The\r\ncyclone should move in this general direction through the 36 hour\r\nperiod, and then turn westward within the low-level trade wind flow\r\nas a degenerated, vertically shallow system.  The official NHC\r\nforecast is based on the multi-model consensus and is slightly to\r\nthe right of the previous forecast beyond 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 17.8N 111.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 19.0N 112.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 20.5N 115.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.9N 117.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 22.9N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 23.9N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 24.0N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1200Z 24.0N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014\r\n\r\nA faint eye was briefly apparent on visible satellite images, and\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB as well as objective Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates from UW-CIMSS support an intensity of 65 kt.\r\nTherefore, Hernan is being upgraded to the third hurricane of the\r\n2014 eastern North Pacific season.  The system has a quite\r\nimpressive and symmetrical upper-level outflow pattern at this time.\r\nSea surface temperatures will be decreasing along the path of the\r\ntropical cyclone, and vertical shear is expected to gradually\r\nincrease.  Therefore, a weakening trend should commence on Monday.\r\nThe official intensity forecast closely follows the latest model\r\nconsensus, ICON.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains northwestward, or 305/13.  There is no\r\nsignificant change to the track forecast or the reasoning behind\r\nit.  For the next few days, Hernan will continue to be steered by\r\nthe flow on the southwest side of a ridge associated with a\r\nmid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States.\r\nThis ridge is forecast to build westward somewhat, which should\r\ncause the track of Hernan to gradually shift toward the\r\nwest-northwest.  By the latter part of the forecast period, the\r\nweakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn\r\nwestward following the lower-tropospheric steering flow.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is very close to the track model consensus,\r\nTVCN, and is basically an update of the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nBased on a recent ASCAT overpass, only slight adjustments to the\r\nwind radii were required.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 18.6N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 19.7N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 21.2N 116.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 22.6N 118.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 23.4N 120.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 24.2N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 24.5N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z 24.5N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hernan","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014\r\n\r\nHernan's cloud pattern has already begun to deteriorate a bit since\r\nit reached hurricane strength this afternoon.  The last few visible\r\nimages showed arc clouds emanating away from the western semicircle,\r\nwhich could be an indication that drier air is getting into the\r\ncirculation.  Satellite intensity estimates are somewhat\r\nconflicting, with the subjective numbers from TAFB and SAB\r\nincreasing from 6 hours ago while the objective T-numbers from the\r\nADT have decreased.  Therefore, the intensity is being held at 65 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  Given the recent satellite trends, however,\r\nHernan may not last as a hurricane for much longer.  The cyclone\r\nonly has about 12-18 hours left before it crosses the 26C isotherm\r\nand plows over much colder water, leading to a quicker weakening\r\ntrend after 24 hours.  The main difference with the previous\r\nforecast is at 48 hours and beyond, with Hernan now expected to\r\nbecome a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5.\r\n\r\nHernan continues to move northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n310/13 kt.  This motion is being caused by a strong mid-level ridge\r\nlocated over Mexico and the southern United States and should\r\ncontinue for the next 36 hours.  After that time, the cyclone is\r\nforecast to turn west-northwestward and slow down considerably as\r\nit is left in an environment of weak low-level steering.  The\r\nupdated NHC forecast is nudged a bit north of the previous forecast\r\nbeyond 48 hours toward the model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 19.3N 113.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 21.8N 117.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 23.1N 119.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 23.9N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 24.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 24.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-07-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014\r\n\r\nHernan is now on a weakening trend.  The coverage of deep convection\r\nhas decreased markedly over the past several hours, and the cloud\r\npattern has a more elongated appearance than it did earlier.\r\nMicrowave images also show a pronounced vertical tilt of the vortex\r\ndue to about 15 kt of westerly shear.  Dvorak and ADT intensity\r\nestimates have decreased from all agencies, and using a blend of the\r\nCI- and T-numbers yields an initial intensity of 60 kt. A\r\ncombination of moderate shear, a dry stable air mass, and decreasing\r\nsea surface temperatures should cause Hernan to continue weakening\r\nduring the next few days.  The system is expected to become a\r\nremnant low in about 2 days when it is forecast to be over waters\r\ncooler than 23 C.\r\n\r\nThe storm has turned slightly to the left, and the latest initial\r\nmotion estimate is 300/13 kt.  This general motion should continue\r\nfor the next 24 hours while Hernan remains steered by a strong\r\nmid-level high over the southwestern United States.  After that\r\ntime, a gradual turn to the west with a decrease in forward speed\r\nis predicted when the shallow system becomes more influenced by the\r\nlighter low-level flow.  The official track forecast is just a\r\nlittle to the left of the previous one, and near the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 19.9N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 20.9N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 22.3N 118.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 23.4N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 24.1N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 24.5N 124.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 24.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-07-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 28 2014\r\n\r\nPersistent 15-20 kt of westerly shear is certainly deteriorating the\r\ncyclone's organization this morning. Conventional satellite imagery\r\nshows a rather shapeless cloud pattern with warming cloud tops.  A\r\nfortuitous 0934 UTC AMSU-A microwave pass indicated an eastward\r\nvertical tilt with the low-level center located near the western\r\nedge of the deep convection.  A compromise of satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB along with a 0933 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON\r\n(which includes ADT, and AMSU intensity estimates) of 54 kt supports\r\nan initial intensity of 55 kt for this advisory.  The large-scale\r\nmodels and the statistical/dynamical intensity guidance all show a\r\nmoderate shear environment through the forecast period.\r\nFurthermore, an increasingly stable air mass and decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures should ultimately weaken Hernan into a shallow\r\npost-tropical cyclone in 48 hours.\r\n\r\nHernan continues to move northwestward, with an initial motion\r\nestimate of 295/14 kt.  Global model guidance indicates that a\r\nmid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should steer Hernan\r\nin this general motion through the 36 hour period.  Afterward, a\r\nturn toward the west and a reduction in forward speed is forecast as\r\nthe remnant low moves within the lower tropospheric flow of the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to\r\nthe left of the previous track beyond 36 hours, and lies between the\r\nconsensus model and the ECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 20.5N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 22.9N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 23.8N 122.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 24.0N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 24.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 24.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-07-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Hernan continues to degrade in appearance,\r\nand what little deep convection remains is confined mainly to the\r\nsouth of the center.  The current wind speed estimate has been\r\nreduced to 45 kt based on a blend of intensity estimates from SAB\r\nand TAFB along with objective Dvorak numbers from UW-CIMSS.  The\r\nstorm is now moving over waters cooler than 26 deg C, and sea\r\nsurface temperatures should continue to decrease beneath the\r\ncyclone.  These hostile oceanic conditions, combined with moderately\r\nstrong south-southwesterly shear, are likely to bring about\r\ncontinued weakening.  The official intensity forecast shows Hernan\r\ndegenerating into a remnant low in 36 hours, but the latest\r\nintensity model guidance suggests that the system could weaken even\r\nfaster than indicated here.\r\n\r\nHernan continues on its west-northwestward trek, and the initial\r\nmotion is estimated to be 300/15 kt.  A mid-level ridge over the\r\nsouthwestern United States and northwestern Mexico should impart a\r\ncontinued west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days.\r\nThereafter, the dying cyclone is expected to turn westward since\r\nthe steering should become dominated by the low-level tradewind\r\nflow.  The official track forecast is quite similar to the previous\r\nNHC track and is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus\r\nforecast, TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 21.3N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 22.4N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 23.6N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 24.2N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 24.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-07-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 28 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection to the southeast of Hernan's center dissipated a few\r\nhours ago, but a new burst of activity has recently developed to the\r\nnorth of the center.  Still, subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nsatellite estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity\r\nis set at 40 kt based on a blend of these data.  Due to decreasing\r\nsea surface temperatures, increasing atmospheric stability, and\r\nstrengthening vertical shear, this new round of convective activity\r\nis likely to be short lived.  Based on the latest intensity\r\nguidance, the updated NHC forecast now shows Hernan weakening to a\r\ntropical depression in about 12 hours and becoming a remnant low by\r\n36 hours.  Dissipation is indicated by day 4, but some of the global\r\nmodels indicate that it could occur sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 300/15 kt.  Hernan is forecast to\r\ncontinue moving west-northwestward during the next 48 hours, but it\r\nshould also slow down as it comes under the influence of weaker\r\nlow-level flow.  A slow westward motion is expected just before the\r\nremnant low dissipates.  The model consensus TVCE has been trending\r\na little bit farther north, and the updated NHC track forecast is\r\nnudged in that direction primarily at 48 and 72 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 22.1N 118.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 24.0N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 24.6N 123.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 25.0N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 25.0N 127.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hernan","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-07-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014\r\n\r\nHernan continues to weaken.  Deep convection has been decreasing\r\nduring the past few hours and is now confined to a small patch to\r\nthe northeast of the exposed low-level center.  A blend of the\r\nlatest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS\r\nyields an initial wind speed of 35 kt.  The system is currently\r\nover cool 24 C waters and in atmosphere of fairly dry air and\r\nmoderate southwesterly shear.  These environmental conditions are\r\nexpected to become even more hostile, which should cause Hernan to\r\nweaken to a depression later today and to a remnant low by tonight.\r\nThe models are in good agreement in showing the remnant low\r\ndissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on\r\nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over\r\nnorthern Mexico and the southwestern United States.  Hernan, or\r\nits remnant low, is expected to slow down during the next couple of\r\ndays when it steered by the lighter low-level flow.  The model\r\nguidance has changed little this cycle, and the official track\r\nforecast is an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 22.8N 119.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 23.7N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 24.4N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 24.9N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 25.2N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 25.3N 127.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hernan","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-07-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP082014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014\r\n\r\nGOES-15 shortwave infrared imagery shows that Hernan's surface\r\ncirculation has become elongated (north to south) and ill-defined.\r\nThe post-tropical cyclone has been devoid of significant deep\r\nconvection for over 12 hours, and regeneration is not likely due to\r\nsea surface temperature of less than 24 deg C.  The winds associated\r\nwith the remnant low should continue to decrease, with dissipation\r\nof the system expected in a couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has been along a persistent west-northwest\r\ndirection, or 300/13 kt, within the low- to mid-level flow on the\r\nperiphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast.  This general\r\nmotion should continue until the system dissipates in 48 hours.  The\r\nNHC forecast is similar to that from the previous package and\r\nfollows the TVCE consensus.\r\n\r\nThis is the last NHC advisory on this system.  For additional\r\ninformation on the remnant low of Hernan, please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header\r\nNFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 23.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has been wrapping up quickly during the past few\r\nhours near the low pressure system located near 122W, and TAFB and\r\nSAB have both provided Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt.  In\r\naddition, a partial 1800 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that the low is\r\nalready producing winds to tropical storm force in the eastern\r\nsemicircle.  Therefore, advisories are being initiated on Tropical\r\nStorm Iselle, and the maximum winds are conservatively set at 35 kt.\r\n\r\nWith sea surface temperatures ahead of Iselle running between\r\n27-28C and vertical shear not expected to be a significant limiting\r\nfactor, the storm is forecast to strengthen for at least the next 3\r\ndays.  The strengthening rate could be quick for the next day or so,\r\nwith the SHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 44 percent\r\nchance of a 25-kt increase in winds by this time tomorrow.  The\r\nSHIPS guidance is the most aggressive of the intensity models and\r\nbrings Iselle to hurricane status within the next 24-36 hours.  The\r\nNHC official intensity forecast is not as high as the SHIPS model,\r\nbut since the environment looks favorable for strengthening, it does\r\nlie a little above the intensity consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nIselle is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends\r\nfrom northwestern Mexico southwestward to near 20N140W, and the\r\ncyclone's estimated initial motion is 295/9 kt.  In general, ridging\r\nis expected to maintain a relatively steady west-northwestward\r\nmotion for the next several days.  Some slight decrease in forward\r\nspeed is possible by day 4 when a weakness develops within the ridge\r\nnear 135W and ridging strengthens near the Hawaiian Islands.  The\r\ntrack guidance is tightly clustered for this forecast, and the NHC\r\ntrack forecast lies very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 122.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 13.4N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 14.2N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 14.8N 126.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 15.1N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N 135.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 16.0N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 31 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Iselle features an area of cold\r\nconvective tops mainly to the north and east of the estimated center\r\nposition, and the poleward outflow has been enhanced somewhat due to\r\nan upper-level trough to the northwest. The initial intensity has\r\nbeen raised to 40 kt based on a blend of the TAFB Dvorak estimate\r\nand the latest ADT from UW-CIMSS. Conditions appear favorable for\r\nsteady intensification during the next couple of days. In fact,\r\nrapid strengthening is a possibility during the next 24 hours with\r\nthe SHIPS RI index showing a 40 percent chance of a 25-kt increase\r\nin the next 24 hours. After 72 hours SSTs cool somewhat along the\r\nforecast track, which should result in gradual weakening. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast has been adjusted upward a little from the\r\nprevious advisory and is close to or just below the SHIPS model\r\nthrough the period and above the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10 given the\r\nrecent formation of the cyclone, and the initial position is a\r\nlittle to the south and west of previous estimates. Overall the\r\ntrack forecast reasoning has not changed, as Iselle will be steered\r\ngenerally west-northwestward south of the subtropical ridge for the\r\nnext 72 hours or so. After that time, the ridge weakens as a\r\nmid/upper-level trough digs equatorward along 135W, which should\r\nresult is a slower westward motion late in the period. The track\r\nguidance envelope remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours\r\nand the only change to the NHC track during that time is a westward\r\nadjustment due to the initial position and motion. Late in the\r\nperiod the spread of the guidance increases a little, and the\r\nenvelope has shifted northward this cycle. At days 3 through 5 the\r\nNHC track has been adjusted northward and westward, but still lies\r\nsouth of the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 13.2N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.8N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 14.6N 126.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 15.2N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 15.6N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 16.5N 134.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 16.5N 140.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nIselle is continuing on an intensification trend with very deep\r\nconvection in a central dense overcast feature.  A recent AMSU\r\nmicrowave pass also suggests that the inner core has become better\r\ndefined, with perhaps a partial eyewall in the eastern semicircle.\r\nThe initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt based on an ASCAT-B pass\r\nfrom 0507 UTC.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for further strengthening\r\nover the next couple of days with light-to-moderate northeasterly\r\nshear and warm water.  Although the SHIPS-RI index has decreased\r\nsomewhat from the last cycle, rapid intensification remains a\r\npossibility, especially given the recent development of inner core\r\nfeatures.  The NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, on the\r\nhigher side of the guidance envelope close to the SHIPS and FSSE\r\nmodels.  After 48 hours, Iselle should be moving into a more stable\r\nenvironment near cooler SSTs.  Thus, a gradual weakening is\r\nforecast, near or slightly above the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nIselle continues to move to the west-northwest while it remains to\r\nthe south of the subtropical ridge.  Global models are in excellent\r\nagreement on this general track for the next 3 days while the ridge\r\npersists.  After that time, the track uncertainty greatly increases\r\ndue to a trough digging into the eastern Pacific, near or east of\r\nthe forecast longitude of Iselle.  With many varying solutions from\r\nthe global models, it makes sense to stay close to the track\r\nconsensus, which generally moves Iselle westward at long range.\r\nSince this consensus is near the last NHC prediction, the new\r\nforecast is basically unchanged from 6 hours ago.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 13.5N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 14.1N 125.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 15.3N 129.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 15.8N 131.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 16.5N 134.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 16.8N 137.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 17.0N 140.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nRecent microwave data indicate that Iselle has a well-defined\r\nstructure with a nearly closed ring of deep convection around the\r\ncenter.  In infrared satellite imagery, hints of a possible ragged\r\neye have been noted although the convection is a little thin on the\r\nwestern side.  Dvorak intensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from SAB,\r\nT3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T3.9/63 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.  The\r\ninitial intensity is raised to 55 kt based on a blend of these data.\r\n\r\nThe subtropical ridge continues to propel Iselle west-northwestward\r\nwith an estimated motion of 295/9 kt.  This motion is expected to\r\ncontinue for the next 48 hours.  By day 3, however, a mid- to upper-\r\nlevel trough is forecast to amplify off the California coast while a\r\nfairly strong mid-level high becomes established just to the\r\nnortheast of Hawaii.  This pattern should cause Iselle to move more\r\nslowly toward the west between days 3 through 5.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement for the first 2 days of the forecast\r\nbut then diverges a bit thereafter, with the GFS and HWRF taking\r\nIselle on a more northern trajectory and the ECMWF and GFDL staying\r\nfarther to the south.  The NHC official track forecast is largely\r\nunchanged from the previous advisory and remains near the\r\nmulti-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nUW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that about 10 kt of northerly\r\nshear is affecting Iselle, which could be contributing to the thin\r\nconvection on the western side.  The shear is expected to change\r\nlittle for the next 24 hours but should then decrease thereafter.\r\nThe thermodynamic environment will become a little more marginal in\r\n2-3 days when Iselle approaches the 26C sea surface temperature\r\nisotherm and slightly more stable air.  Therefore, Iselle is likely\r\nto peak in intensity in the next 36-48 hours and then gradually\r\nweaken on days 3-5.  The intensity models have come into much better\r\nagreement compared to yesterday, and no significant changes were\r\nrequired to the official intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 14.1N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 14.6N 126.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 15.1N 128.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 15.5N 130.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 15.9N 132.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 16.5N 135.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 16.5N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Iselle","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nIselle has a well-defined structure in visible imagery and at times\r\nseems to have been trying to form an eye.  However, the convective\r\npattern as observed in infrared satellite imagery has been a little\r\nragged and not as well structured.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB are now unanimously T3.5/55 kt, but final-T estimates from the\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT have actually dropped to T3.1/47 kt since this\r\nmorning.  Based on these numbers, as well as a 50-kt estimate from\r\na recent ASCAT-B pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe strengthening trend may be taking a temporary respite, but\r\nenvironmental conditions should support further intensification\r\nduring the next 2-3 days.  Modest northerly shear appears to be\r\nimpinging on the storm, but that shear is expected to diminish in a\r\nday or two.  By that time, thermodynamic conditions will become a\r\nlittle more marginal as Iselle approaches the 26C sea surface\r\ntemperature isotherm.  The intensity models are in fairly good\r\nagreement in showing modest strengthening, although the peak\r\nintensities have decreased a bit.  Based on the latest guidance,\r\nthe updated NHC intensity forecast shows Iselle reaching a maximum\r\nintensity of 70 kt in 36-48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe track models are also in good agreement, showing very little\r\nspread during the first 3 days.  The subtropical ridge to the north\r\nof Iselle should keep the cyclone on a west-northwestward track\r\nduring that time.  Iselle's forward speed is then expected to slow\r\ndown on days 3 and 4 as it gets impeded by a mid-level ridge near\r\nHawaii, and then speed up again on day 5 when the ridge slides\r\neastward.  No significant changes were required to the official\r\ntrack forecast, and the NHC points continue to lie very close the\r\nmodel consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 14.5N 126.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 14.9N 127.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 15.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 15.9N 131.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 16.3N 133.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 16.6N 136.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 16.9N 138.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 01 2014\r\n\r\nIselle's cloud pattern has increased in organization since the last\r\nadvisory, transitioning from a banding to an eye pattern. Cloud top\r\ntemperatures have also generally cooled in a small central dense\r\novercast that has recently formed. Though ragged and occasionally\r\nobscured by high clouds, the 20 to 25 n mi diameter eye appeared\r\nwell defined in an earlier AMSR-2 microwave overpass.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates were 3.5 and 4.0 from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC,\r\nrespectively, with the latest ADT CI values at 4.0.  Based on these\r\ndata, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/10.  Iselle should move steadily\r\nwest-northwestward on the south side of a subtropical ridge until a\r\nmid- to upper-level trough digging along 130W in 2-3 days causes the\r\nridge to weaken.  Only a modest decrease in forward speed is\r\nexpected in at that time before the ridge re-strengthens over the\r\ncentral Pacific by day 4, resulting in Iselle's moving faster\r\ntoward the west. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 2\r\ndays but diverges some after that time, with the guidance shifting\r\nnoticeably to the south at later times this cycle.  The official\r\ntrack has been nudged a bit south in the short term and southward\r\neven more by days 3-5, but is not as far south as the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nIselle is likely to continue to intensify during the next day or\r\ntwo.  The closed low-level ring of convection in microwave imagery\r\ncould portend a period of rapid intensification in the short term.\r\nHowever, moderate north-northeasterly shear and marginal\r\nthermodynamic parameters suggest this to be a lower probability\r\nscenario.  After about 2 days, sea surface temperature drop below\r\n26.5C and the environment is expected to gradually become even\r\ndrier and more stable later in the forecast period.  The shear\r\ncould also increase substantially by days 4-5 in association\r\nwith an upper-level trough, but this will depend on how far north\r\nIselle tracks.  The intensity forecast is higher than the previous\r\none through about 2 days but is unchanged at later times,\r\nrepresenting a blend of the multi-model consensus and the FSU\r\nSuperensemble output.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 14.7N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 15.1N 128.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 15.5N 130.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 15.8N 132.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 16.2N 134.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 16.4N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 16.5N 139.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 17.0N 144.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Iselle continues to become better\r\norganized during the past several hours with a ragged eye feature\r\npresent on the shortwave infrared channel.  Microwave data also\r\nshow that the inner core has become better defined on the last\r\nSSMI/S pass.  There is quite a disparity, however, of current\r\nsatellite intensity estimates, ranging from 55 to 90 kt.  Since the\r\ncyclone appears somewhat better organized than 6 hours ago, the wind\r\nspeed is raised to 70 kt, but this estimate is more uncertain than\r\naverage.\r\n\r\nIselle has turned westward and appears to be moving 280/9,\r\nalthough recently has wobbled due westward.  The subtropical ridge\r\nto the northwest of the cyclone should remain firm for the next\r\nseveral days, continuing the general westward motion. There has been\r\na notable southward shift to most of the guidance overnight with\r\nless influence now expected from a digging trough along 130W in a\r\ncouple of days.  The ridge is expected to strengthen at long range,\r\ncausing a faster westward motion at that time.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is shifted southward at all times, especially at Day 3 and\r\nbeyond, close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough Iselle has good inner core structure, a combination of\r\nmoderate northeasterly shear and decreasing SSTs is expected to\r\nlimit the chance for significant strengthening over the next couple\r\nof days.  However, the overall environment is not that unfavorable,\r\nso little change in wind speed is forecast through 48 hours.  After\r\nthat time, the cyclone will likely encounter drier air aloft,\r\nmarginal SSTs and more significant shear by Day 5, which should\r\ncause weakening.   The new forecast is kept very similar to the\r\nprevious forecast, which lies near the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 14.8N 128.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 15.0N 129.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 15.4N 131.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 15.7N 133.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 16.0N 134.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 16.0N 138.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 16.0N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 16.5N 147.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nIselle has maintained an eye during the past several hours, but the\r\ndeepest convection has been unable to persist within the western\r\neyewall.  According to UW-CIMSS shear analyses, about 15 kt of\r\nnorth-northeasterly shear is affecting the hurricane, and a recent\r\nTRMM pass indicated that the mid-level center is displaced about\r\n10-15 n mi south of the low-level center.  The maximum winds are\r\nstill estimated to be 70 kt based on Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt\r\nfrom SAB and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB.\r\n\r\nModerate vertical shear is expected to persist for another 12 hours\r\nor so and then become negligible between 24-72 hours.  Even though\r\nsea surface temperatures are expected to stay near or just above\r\n26C through the next 5 days, oceanic heat content is forecast to\r\ndrop significantly in about 24-36 hours.  Therefore, mixing and\r\nupwelling of colder water is likely to limit significant additional\r\nstrengthening.  The intensity models are in good agreement in\r\nshowing Iselle leveling off around 75 kt during the next couple of\r\ndays, and the official forecast maintains that scenario.  Cooler\r\nocean water and increased shear are expected to cause weakening\r\nbeyond day 3.\r\n\r\nIselle is located to the south of a mid-level ridge, which is\r\nsteering the hurricane westward with an initial motion of 280/9 kt.\r\nA mid-level shortwave trough is still expected to develop to the\r\nnorth of Iselle in about 48 hours, but its only real effect will be\r\nto weaken the steering flow for a day or two.  After day 3,\r\nmid-level ridging is forecast to restrengthen to the north and\r\nnortheast of Iselle, causing the cyclone to accelerate westward by\r\nthe end of the forecast period.  There continues to be some\r\nlatitudinal spread in the track guidance, especially on days 4 and\r\n5.  The updated NHC track forecast is very near the previous\r\nforecast and the model consensus TVCE for the sake of continuity.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 15.0N 129.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 15.2N 130.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 15.6N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 15.9N 134.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 16.0N 135.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 16.0N 139.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 16.0N 143.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 16.5N 148.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nDespite continued north-northeasterly shear, Iselle has strengthened\r\nto category 2 strength during the past few hours.  The deep\r\nconvection remains a little asymmetric, favoring the eastern\r\nsemicircle, but Dvorak estimates have still risen to T4.5/77 kt from\r\nTAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  These data,\r\ncombined with an earlier AMSU estimate of 78 kt, support raising the\r\ninitial intensity to 85 kt.\r\n\r\nThe vertical shear, such as it is, is still expected to diminish\r\nduring the next 12-24 hours.  At the same time, Iselle will be\r\nmoving over decreasing oceanic heat content values, and the stronger\r\nwinds will likely lead to increased upwelling of colder water.  The\r\nofficial forecast allows for a little more intensification in the\r\nshort term, but after 24 hours the less favorable thermodynamic\r\nenvironment should induce gradual weakening.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast is a little bit higher than the previous one only\r\nduring the first 3 days to account for the higher initial intensity.\r\nBeyond day 3, the GFDL and HWRF keep Iselle near the threshold of\r\nhurricane intensity while the statistical models show a more marked\r\ndecrease in winds. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the\r\nLGEM and FSU Superensemble on days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nIselle's initial motion is 280/8 kt.  The hurricane is expected to\r\nmaintain a general westward motion but could slow down a bit in\r\n48-72 hours when the ridge to the north of Iselle weakens.  By days\r\n4 and 5, a mid-level high northeast of Hawaii is anticipated to\r\nstrengthen and slide eastward, which should impart a faster westward\r\nmotion at the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is\r\ntightly clustered during the first 72 hours, but most of the models,\r\nparticularly the ECMWF and GFDL, have shifted northward on this\r\ncycle.  The updated NHC track forecast is also nudged northward on\r\ndays 4 and 5 and lies close to the FSU Superensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 15.1N 130.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 15.4N 131.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 15.7N 133.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 15.9N 135.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 16.0N 137.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 16.5N 144.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 17.5N 150.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 02 2014\r\n\r\nIselle is still strengthening.  The central dense overcast has\r\nbecome more symmetric since the last advisory, with cloud top\r\ntemperatures cooling slightly. The eye was also becoming better\r\ndefined but has recently become obscured by overshooting convective\r\ntops.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 0000 UTC\r\nwere T5.0/90 kt and UW-CIMSS ADT values are at 5.4/99 kt.  These\r\ndata support increasing the initial intensity estimate to 95 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is just north of due west or 275/09. A\r\nsubtropical ridge north of Iselle should allow the current motion to\r\npersist in the short term.  However, a mid-latitude trough digging\r\nroughly along 130W should temporarily weaken the ridge during the\r\nnext day or two, causing the forward speed of Iselle to nominally\r\ndecrease.  When the subtropical ridge rebuilds over the central\r\nPacific after day 3, Iselle should move on a westward and then\r\nwest-northwestward heading a faster forward speed.  The track\r\nguidance is in relatively good agreement throughout the forecast\r\nperiod, and the forecast track is adjusted only slightly to the\r\nsouth in the direction of the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nIt is difficult to see Iselle strengthening much further.  Although\r\nnortheasterly shear over the cyclone is forecast to decrease during\r\nthe next couple of days, the thermodynamic contribution from the\r\nenvironment should gradually become less favorable.  This would\r\nsuggest that some additional intensification is possible in the very\r\nshort term, followed by slow weakening after 24 hours.  The one\r\ncaveat would be that with little shear and marginally favorable\r\nthermodynamic conditions Iselle could evolve into an annular\r\nhurricane and maintain a somewhat higher intensity during the next\r\nfew days.  By days 4 and 5, even less favorable thermodynamic\r\nfactors and an uptick in south-southwesterly shear should result in\r\nquicker weakening as Iselle approaches the Hawaiian Islands.  The\r\nintensity forecast is somewhat higher than the previous one in the\r\nshort term and represents a blend of the multi-model consensus and\r\nFSU Superensemble output.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 15.2N 131.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 15.4N 132.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 15.6N 134.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 15.7N 136.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 15.8N 137.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 15.9N 141.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 16.6N 146.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 17.8N 152.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe overall satellite presentation of Iselle hasn't changed much\r\nduring the past several hours with strong convection in the eyewall\r\nand an eye which is intermittently obscured by cirrus clouds.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates have not changed significantly, so\r\nthe initial wind speed will remain 95 kt.\r\n\r\nAlthough Iselle is probably near peak intensity, it still has a\r\nshort window of time today to become a major hurricane.  It is not\r\nlikely to strengthen much, however, due to Iselle moving closer to a\r\nless favorable thermodynamic environment. Since wind shear is\r\nforecast to remain low, only gradual weakening is anticipated after\r\ntoday while Iselle moves over marginal SSTs for the next couple\r\nof days. One possible pitfall of this forecast is that, given the\r\nforecast storm environment, Iselle could evolve into an annular\r\nhurricane, which could delay the weakening during that time.  Late\r\nin the period, an increase in both shear and drier air aloft will\r\nprobably help to weaken the storm while it approaches the Hawaiian\r\nIslands. The official NHC intensity forecast is close to the\r\nprevious one and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone continues to move westward or 275/9.  A subtropical\r\nridge north of Iselle should steer the storm on this general path\r\nfor the next few days, with a slight deceleration expected in a day\r\nor so due to the ridge temporarily weakening. Guidance is in very\r\ngood agreement through day 3, and the NHC forecast through that\r\ntime us basically an update of the previous one.  After that time,\r\nIselle should move on a more west-northwestward heading at a faster\r\nforward speed due to the ridge rebuilding.  The model guidance has\r\nshifted northward on this cycle, which seems reasonable given the\r\nforecast synoptic pattern, and the official forecast is moved in\r\nthat direction.  It should be noted that the bulk of the guidance is\r\nnorth of the latest NHC forecast at long range, and further\r\nadjustments in that direction could be required on later forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 15.3N 131.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 15.4N 133.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 15.6N 135.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 15.7N 137.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 15.7N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 16.0N 142.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 17.3N 147.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 19.0N 154.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nIt hasn't been particularly steady, but Iselle continues on a\r\ngradual strengthening trend.  The eye has cleared out in infrared\r\nsatellite imagery, and the overall presentation has become a little\r\nmore symmetric.  Dvorak estimates are now T5.5/102 kt from SAB,\r\nT5.0/90 kt from TAFB, and near 110 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\nTherefore, the maximum winds are set at 100 kt as a blend of these\r\nnumbers, making Iselle a major hurricane.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast has been complicated.  Iselle continues to\r\npush through the peak intensities shown in previous model cycles,\r\nso apparently the environment has been a little more favorable than\r\nexpected.  Vertical shear has decreased since yesterday, but still\r\nthe latest model runs do not show any additional intensification,\r\npresumably because the thermodynamic environment is becoming more\r\nmarginal.  The NHC forecast maintains Iselle at 100 kt for the next\r\n12 hours and then only gradually weakens it through 48 hours, but\r\ngiven the hurricane's history, I can't rule out some additional\r\nstrengthening in the short term.  Interestingly, the statistical\r\nmodels are stronger than the dynamical models during the first 48\r\nhours, but the scenario flip-flops on days 3 through 5 with the\r\ndynamical models maintaining a stronger cyclone as Iselle\r\napproaches the Hawaiian Islands.  For now, the NHC forecast closely\r\nfollows the intensity consensus ICON and is unchanged from the\r\nprevious advisory beyond 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 280/9 kt.  Ridging to the north of Iselle is\r\nexpected to maintain a westward heading for the next 3 days, but\r\nthe forward motion will decrease in about 36 hours as that ridge\r\nweakens.  After day 3, Iselle is forecast to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward and accelerate when a mid-level high develops halfway\r\nbetween Hawaii and California.  The track models are in good\r\nagreement for the entire forecast period, but as mentioned in the\r\nprevious advisory, a slight northward adjustment was needed in the\r\nofficial forecast on days 4 and 5 to account for recent model\r\ntrends.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 15.5N 132.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 15.6N 134.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 15.7N 136.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 15.7N 137.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 15.8N 139.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 16.5N 143.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 18.0N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 20.0N 156.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe cold cloud tops of Iselle's convection have suddenly begun to\r\nexpand during the past few hours, suggesting that vertical shear is\r\nrelaxing.  The eye has become a little more distinct, and the\r\nhurricane appears to be taking on a more circular, compact shape.\r\nCurrent intensity estimates remain unchanged from earlier this\r\nmorning, so the initial intensity is held at 100 kt.\r\n\r\nRegarding the compact shape of the hurricane, conventional and\r\nmicrowave images seem to suggest that Iselle is losing its\r\nconvective banding features.  And, for the first time, the Annular\r\nHurricane Index is indicating that Iselle has a marginal annular\r\nstructure.  If it does in fact become annular, then the hurricane\r\nis likely to only gradually weaken during the next couple of days\r\nin an environment of light easterly shear and slowly decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures.  Increasing vertical shear and even colder\r\nwaters should induce a faster weakening trend after 48 hours, but\r\nmost of the guidance still suggests that Iselle will maintain\r\ntropical storm status as it moves near the Hawaiian Islands on days\r\n4 and 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from\r\nthe previous one and lies very close to the LGEM and intensity\r\nconsensus ICON for the entire forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe latest center fixes suggest that Iselle jogged west-\r\nnorthwestward earlier today, but the estimated initial motion is\r\nnow westward, or 280/9 kt.  The hurricane is expected to slow down\r\na little during the next 36 hours coincident with a developing\r\nbreak in the subtropical ridge.  A mid-level high is then forecast\r\nto develop between Hawaii and California by day 3, which should\r\nsteer Iselle at a faster rate toward the west-northwest through the\r\nend of the forecast period.  There is very little spread among the\r\ntrack models, but the entire envelope has shifted northward on days\r\n3 through 5.  Further shifts could be required if the models\r\ncontinue their recent trends, but at this point Iselle is still a\r\npotential threat to the Hawaiian Islands later this week.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 15.7N 133.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 15.8N 135.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 15.8N 136.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 15.8N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 16.0N 140.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 17.5N 145.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 19.5N 151.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 21.5N 157.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nIselle's satellite appearance has essentially been steady state\r\nsince the last advisory.  The cyclone continues to exhibit many of\r\nthe characteristics of an annular hurricane, with a nearly\r\naxisymmetric convective structure and a curious lack of convective\r\nfeatures outside the well-defined cental dense overcast. A circular\r\nbut cloud-filled 20-25 n mi wide eye is also evident in last-light\r\nvisible imagery.  The initial intensity is reduced only slightly to\r\n95 kt in accordance with the latest CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a steady 280/10, with perhaps more of\r\na due-west wobble during the last couple of hours.  A mid-latitude\r\ntrough extending southwestward along 130w is forecast to weaken the\r\nsubtropical ridge north of Iselle during the next 24 hours.  The\r\neffect of the weakened ridge should be a decrease in the cyclone's\r\nforward motion for a brief period during the next day or two as it\r\napproaches 140w.  By day 3, the cyclone should find itself south of\r\na newly established central Pacific ridge, which should steer Iselle\r\nwest-northwestward at a considerably faster forward speed by days\r\n4-5.  The track forecast is little changed from the previous one\r\nand is in the middle of the guidance envelope, very close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nEven though Iselle is moving over marginally warm sea surface\r\ntemperatures, its current annular structure in a very light-shear\r\nenvironment suggests that the cyclone might retain a higher\r\nintensity than the guidance might suggest if the large-scale\r\nenvironmental conditions do not vary much at least during the next\r\nday or possibly two. After that, significantly less favorable\r\nthermodynamic factors, such as increasingly drier and more stable\r\nair and water temperatures just below 26C, should result in\r\nweakening while Iselle nears the Hawaiian Islands.  An accelerated\r\nweakening may take place as Iselle makes its closest approach to the\r\nHawaiian chain when environmental conditions become even more\r\nhostile.  The intensity forecast is about the same as the previous\r\none and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM\r\noutput.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 15.9N 134.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-08-04 06:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n1100 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Iselle has become much better\r\norganized over the past few hours with a warm, well-defined eye and\r\nstrong convection in the eyewall.  A special 0500 UTC Dvorak\r\nclassification from TAFB had a Data-T value of 6.0, or 115 kt,\r\nwith constraints suggesting a slightly lower final wind speed.\r\nCIMSS ADT values have been running near 110 kt for the past six\r\nhours, and this will be used as the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nWith Iselle's current annular structure, little change in intensity\r\nis foreseen in the near-term.  A slow weakening could begin by late\r\nMonday due to the hurricane encountering a somewhat less favorable\r\nthermodynamic environment.  The official NHC wind speed prediction\r\nhas been raised significantly from the previous one through 36\r\nhours due to the stronger initial intensity.  No changes have been\r\nmade to the intensity forecast beyond 72 hours at this time.\r\n\r\nNo changes have been made to the previous forecast track in this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0600Z 16.0N 135.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 16.0N 136.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 16.0N 137.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 16.0N 139.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 16.5N 141.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 18.1N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 20.1N 153.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 22.3N 159.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nIselle continues to show an annular hurricane structure with no\r\nouter banding around a symmetric inner core.  Satellite\r\nclassifications are about the same as a few hours ago, so the\r\ninitial wind speed will remain 110 kt.  Little change in intensity\r\nis likely today while a low-shear environment remains near the\r\nhurricane.  Iselle is likely to experience some shear on Tuesday,\r\nwhich should start a more consistent weakening. As the cyclone\r\nmoves deeper into the central Pacific basin, a combination of dry\r\nair aloft, westerly shear and marginal SSTs should continue the\r\nweakening process.  The latest NHC forecast is somewhat above the\r\nmodel consensus early on due to the annular structure, but ends up\r\nbelow the consensus at long range due to the unfavorable\r\nenvironment described above.\r\n\r\nIselle is moving westward at roughly 8 kt.  This general motion\r\nshould continue for a day or so with some acceleration after that\r\ntime due to a restrengthening of a ridge over the central Pacific.\r\nIselle should move more to the west-northwest in a few days due to\r\nthe cyclone moving around the southwestern portion of the ridge.\r\nModel guidance has not changed much during the past 6 hours, and\r\nthe latest NHC forecast is very close to the previous forecast and\r\nthe dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 16.0N 135.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 16.1N 136.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 16.1N 138.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 16.3N 140.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 16.9N 142.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 18.5N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 20.6N 155.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 22.7N 160.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nIselle continues to intensify and has reached category 4 strength.\r\nConvective cloud tops as cold as -75C surround the eye, which has\r\ngrown to a diameter of 25-30 n mi.  Dvorak estimates were a\r\nconsensus T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC, and the\r\nobjective UW-CIMSS ADT has crept up to T6.3/122 kt since that time.\r\nBased on these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 120\r\nkt. Vertical shear is expected to remain light for the next 24 hours\r\nor so while Iselle moves over gradually cooler SSTs.  Since Iselle\r\nhas some characteristics of an annular hurricane, it is likely to\r\nchange little in intensity during the next day or so, and even when\r\nit begins to weaken, the trend should be gradual.  On day 3, Iselle\r\nwill be moving over the coldest water (between 25 and 26C) along\r\nits forecast track, and vertical shear is expected to increase to\r\nabout 15-20 kt.  Both factors should induce quicker weakening at\r\nthat time.  The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the\r\ntypically used intensity models during the first 24 hours, is very\r\nclose to the consensus on days 2-3, and then more closely follows\r\nthe decay shown by the LGEM model toward the latter part of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nIselle's initial motion is 275/9 kt.  A mid- to upper-level\r\nshortwave trough is swinging by to the north of the hurricane and\r\neroding the subtropical ridge, which should cause Iselle to slow\r\ndown a bit during the next 24 hours.  After that time, a mid-level\r\nhigh is forecast to develop and strengthen between Hawaii and\r\nCalifornia, forcing Iselle to turn west-northwestward and accelerate\r\nas it approaches and moves near the Hawaiian Islands.  The track\r\nguidance has been stable and tightly clustered for a few cycles now,\r\nand no significant changes were required to the NHC track forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 16.2N 136.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 16.3N 139.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 16.8N 141.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 17.4N 144.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 19.0N 150.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...EAST OF HAWAII\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 21.0N 157.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR HAWAII\r\n120H  09/1200Z 22.5N 162.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...WEST OF HAWAII\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nCorrected quasi-annual to quasi-annular\r\n\r\nIselle has an impressive signature on visible satellite imagery\r\nwith a solid central dense overcast surrounding a 25 n mi wide eye.\r\nFinal-T estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT have fallen slightly, but\r\nthe CI number remains 6.3/122 kt.  Along with steady T6.0/115 kt\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is held at 120\r\nkt.  There is not much change to the intensity forecast.  Due to\r\nits quasi-annual structure, Iselle should only gradually weaken in\r\nthe short term while it moves over marginal sea surface temperatures\r\nand in a relatively light-shear environment.  For that reason, the\r\nNHC intensity forecast remains above the intensity guidance for the\r\nfirst 24 hours.  Faster weakening is expected thereafter while the\r\ncyclone spends about 24 hours over sub-26C water.  However, the\r\nocean warms again just to the east of Hawaii, which could allow\r\nIselle to maintain some intensity.  After 24 hours, the NHC\r\nintensity forecast more closely follows the intensity consensus ICON\r\nand the statistical LGEM, which tends to do a good job at the end of\r\nthe forecast period.\r\n\r\nIselle has been moving due westward, or possibly even wobbled just\r\nsouth of due west, during the past few hours.  The initial motion\r\nestimate is 270/9 kt, but Iselle's forward speed should begin to\r\ndecrease soon since the ridge to its north has weakened.  A\r\nmid-level anticyclone is expected to develop and strengthen between\r\nCalifornia and Hawaii in a day or two, forcing Iselle to turn\r\nwest-northwestward and accelerate starting in 36 hours.  The track\r\nguidance has change very little on this cycle, and the updated NHC\r\nforecast continues to bring the center of Iselle across the main\r\nHawaiian Islands between 72 and 120 hours.\r\n\r\nBased on this forecast, Iselle should be crossing 140W just\r\nbefore 1800 UTC on Tuesday.  If this forecast holds, then the\r\nCentral Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, would assume\r\nresponsibility for Iselle and begin issuing advisories at 2100 UTC,\r\nor 11 AM HST on Tuesday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 16.1N 137.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 16.2N 138.5W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 16.5N 140.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 17.1N 142.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 17.8N 146.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR HAWAII\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 21.0N 159.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII\r\n120H  09/1800Z 22.5N 164.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...WEST OF HAWAII\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nIselle's cloud pattern has been in a remarkably steady state since\r\nthe last advisory.  The hurricane continues to maintain a classic\r\nannular structure, with a large circular eye surrounded by a nearly\r\nuniform ring of convection.  Satellite intensity estimates were\r\nT6.0/115 kt at 0000 UTC from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT values\r\nhave also decreased to 6.0.  Based on these data and minor warming\r\nof the cloud tops since that time, the initial intensity estimate is\r\nlowered to 115 kt.\r\n\r\nIselle has jogged a little south of due west and slowed down during\r\nthe past six hours, and the initial motion estimate is 265/07. The\r\ncyclone is forecast to continue on a slow westward course for the\r\nnext 12 hours or so in response to a mid-latitude trough briefly\r\nweakening the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone.  After\r\nthat, Iselle should get caught under a building central Pacific\r\nridge with a slightly different orientation, which should result in\r\nthe cyclone's acceleration toward the west-northwest.  On the\r\nforecast track, the center of Iselle should move near or over\r\nportions of the Hawaiian Islands in 72-96 hours.  A slight\r\nsouthward adjustment was made to the previous forecast track in the\r\ndirection of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nIselle should retain its current annular characteristics during the\r\nnext 12 hour or so, and thus only slow weakening is likely.  After\r\nthat time, enough of an increase in southwesterly vertical shear and\r\nthe ingestion of drier and more stable air should disrupt the status\r\nquo and result in steadier weakening.  Even further weakening should\r\noccur by the time the center of Iselle approaches the Hawaiian\r\nIslands in 48-72 hours, mostly as a result of a very dry air mass\r\nin which the storm will be moving.  By 96-120 hours, the GFS/ECMWF\r\nsolutions show vertical shear increasing to nearly 30 kt which\r\nresults in a decoupling of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis lower than the previous one but above the multi-model consensus\r\nthrough 48 hours and is a blend of the multi-model consensus and\r\nLGEM output after that time.  Remannt low status is now indicated on\r\nday 5.\r\n\r\nInterests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the\r\nprogress of Iselle.  However, it is important not to focus too\r\nclosely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the\r\naverage track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average\r\nintensity error is about 15 kt, and because the hazards of a\r\ntropical cyclone can extend over a broad area often well away from\r\nthe center.\r\n\r\nIselle is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane\r\nCenter's area of responsiblity around 1800 UTC on Tuesday. Once\r\nthis occurs, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,\r\nHawaii, will begin issuing advisories on Iselle.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 16.0N 138.0W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 16.1N 139.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 16.5N 141.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 17.2N 144.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 17.9N 147.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 19.5N 154.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 21.0N 160.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 22.0N 165.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Iselle's eye remain large and distinct, cloud tops have\r\nbeen warming significantly since the previous advisory. Also, some\r\nwesterly shear is beginning to impinge on the cyclone, and the\r\nCDO has become elongated a little in a northeast-southwest\r\norientation. The aforementioned observations all suggest weakening,\r\nand this is noted by a decrease in the Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB\r\nand SAB. The initial intensity is, therefore, lowered to 110 kt for\r\nthis advisory, which is a blend of subjective and objective\r\nsatellite intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/07 kt. After a slight jog to\r\nthe west-southwest, Iselle appears to have returned to a due west\r\ncourse. The NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered and in\r\nexcellent agreement on Iselle moving slowly westward for another\r\n12-24 hours, and then turning more west-northwestward at a\r\nfaster forward speed as the ridge to its north gradually\r\nstrengthens. The new NHC forecast track is just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and is close to the very reliable consensus\r\nmodel, TVCA. On the forecast track, the center of Iselle should move\r\nnear or over portions of the Hawaiian Islands in 72-84 hours.\r\n\r\nSince Iselle is an annular hurricane, only slow weakening is\r\nforecast, especially since the vertical shear is forecast to remain\r\n5 kt or less for the next 72 hours or so. The GFS-based SHIPS model\r\nis showing more significant weakening and makes Iselle a tropical\r\nstorm in 36 hours, which seems premature. This is due in part to the\r\nSSTs being about 0.5 degree cooler in the model than what is\r\ncurrently observed along the cyclone's path. The official intensity\r\nforecast follows the consensus model, ICON, but is slightly higher\r\nto account for the low bias of the SHIPS model. Remnant low\r\nstatus is expected by Day 5.\r\n\r\nInterests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the\r\nprogress of Iselle.  However, it is important not to focus too\r\nclosely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the\r\naverage track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average\r\nintensity error is about 15 kt, and because the hazards of a\r\ntropical cyclone can extend over a broad area often well away from\r\nthe center.\r\n\r\nIselle is expected to cross into the Central Pacific Hurricane\r\nCenter's area of responsibility around 1800 UTC today. Once\r\nthis occurs, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu,\r\nHawaii, will begin issuing advisories on Iselle.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 15.9N 138.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 16.2N 140.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 16.7N 142.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 17.3N 145.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 18.1N 149.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 19.7N 155.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 21.1N 161.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 21.8N 166.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Iselle","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP092014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nIselle has changed little in organization during the past six\r\nhours.  The eye remains well defined, with cloud tops to -70C\r\noccurring in the eyewall.  Analyses from the SHIPS model and from\r\nCIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicate 15-20 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear over the system.  However, this\r\nhas not yet disrupted the inner core.  The initial intensity remains\r\n110 kt based on a combination of subjective and objective satellite\r\nintensity estimates.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nis scheduled to investigate Iselle near 06/0600Z, which will provide\r\nground truth for the intensity.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/8 kt.  The subtropical ridge to\r\nthe north of Iselle should strengthen during the next several days,\r\nwhich should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward with an\r\nincrease in forward speed.  The track model guidance remains\r\ntightly clustered and forecasts Iselle to pass near or over the\r\nHawaiian Islands in 72-84 hours.  Based on this, the new forecast\r\ntrack is again just an update of the previous track, and it lies in\r\nthe center of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe analyzed and 24-hour forecast shear have both increased since\r\nthe previous advisory, and it is likely that Iselle will lose its\r\nannular structure later today or tonight.  This should result in\r\nweakening along the lines of the previous forecast since a\r\nsignificant part of the circulation is over sea surface temperatures\r\nof less than 26C.  The intensity forecast becomes more uncertain\r\nafter 36 hours.  The cyclone will be moving over increasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures west of 152W.  The dynamical models are in poor\r\nagreement on how much shear the Iselle will experience, with the\r\nUKMET forecasting strong shear while the GFS/ECMWF forecast less\r\nshear.  One last factor is that the cyclone is likely to encounter a\r\nvery dry air mass as it approaches Hawaii.  The intensity guidance\r\nresponds to these factors by diverging.  The SHIPS and Florida State\r\nSuperensemble forecast an intensity near 40 kt when Iselle gets near\r\nHawaii, while the GFDL and HWRF forecast it to be a hurricane.  The\r\nintensity forecast from 48-120 hours has been nudged upward in\r\nagreement with the LGEM model and the intensity consensus, and it\r\ncalls for Iselle to be just below hurricane strength near Hawaii.\r\n\r\nInterests in the Hawaiian Islands should closely monitor the\r\nprogress of Iselle.  However, it is important not to focus too\r\nclosely on the exact track and intensity forecasts because the\r\naverage track error 72 hours out is about 100 miles, the average\r\nintensity error is about 15 kt.  In addition, the hazards of a\r\ntropical cyclone can extend over a broad area well away from the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\r\nIselle.  Future Public Advisories will be issued by the Central\r\nPacific Hurricane Center under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP3 and WMO header\r\nWTPA33 PHFO, while Forecast/Advisories will be issued under\r\nAWIPS header HFOTCMCP3 and WMO header WTPA23 PHFO.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 16.0N 139.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 16.3N 141.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 16.9N 143.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 17.6N 147.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 18.3N 150.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 20.0N 156.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 21.0N 162.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 21.5N 166.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 03 2014\r\n\r\nShowers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure\r\nseveral hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become\r\nmore concentrated this afternoon and evening.  The deep convection\r\nhas also become better organized, taking on the form of a band with\r\nincreasing curvature over the western half of the circulation.\r\nDvorak intensity estimates are at T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt from SAB\r\nand TAFB, respectively.  Based on these data, advisories are being\r\ninitiated at this time, and the initial intensity of the depression\r\nis set at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nSome scatter in center fixes over the last 24 hours has made the\r\ninitial motion more uncertain than normal, but an estimate of\r\n270/09 seems reasonable.  The depression is situated to the south of\r\na subtropical ridge extending west-southwestward from western\r\nMexico that should cause the depression to move westward or perhaps\r\neven west-southwestward during the next day or two at a faster\r\nforward speed. Later in the forecast period, the cyclone will become\r\ncaught under the eastern end of a subtropical ridge forming over the\r\ncentral Pacific, with an orientation of the ridge such that a\r\nwest-northwestward heading should commence.  This first NHC track\r\nforecast is close to the multi-model consensus TVCE and near but\r\nslightly south of the ECMWF/GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nPersistent moderate northeasterly shear has been affecting the\r\nsystem for a couple of days now, and according to SHIPS model output\r\nonly a marginal decrease in this shear is likely during the next 3\r\ndays.  Still the cyclone will be over warm waters and encountering\r\nan environment of higher moisture, so steady intensification is\r\nexpected.  Although sea surface temperatures will be gradually\r\ndecreasing after day 3, the shear should nearly diminish and\r\nthermodynamic factors are expected to still be favorable enough to\r\nallow for some additional strengthening or in the very least a\r\nsteady state cyclone.  One caveat to intensity forecast late in the\r\nperiod could be the effect of the cold wake left behind by Hurricane\r\nIselle.  The intensity forecast is close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus IVCN throughout the forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 13.5N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 13.3N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 13.1N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 13.0N 123.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 13.1N 126.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 13.8N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 14.5N 136.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 15.0N 142.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that, although that the cyclone has a\r\nlarge area of associated deep convection, it is somewhat lopsided\r\nwith most of the thunderstorms activity west of the center.\r\nHowever, Dvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB are both at 35 kt, and\r\ntwo ASCAT passes from a couple of hours ago indicate maximum winds\r\nof 35-40 kt.  The initial wind speed is, therefore, set to 40 kt in\r\nagreement with the ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nOnly a gradual intensification of Julio is shown over the next 36\r\nhours due to a continuation of moderate northeasterly shear that is\r\ncurrently affecting the cyclone.  While there is some suggestion\r\nthat this shear could abate after this time, there is enough\r\nuncertainty to only show steady strengthening.  At long range,\r\nthe cyclone will be close to the typical sharp SST gradient over\r\nthe eastern Pacific, as well as possibly a cold wake from Iselle,\r\nso no intensity change is indicated at that time.  The latest NHC\r\nforecast is only slightly higher than the previous one, between the\r\nlatest model consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nASCAT data show that Julio is moving westward at about 11 kt.  A\r\nstrong ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer the\r\nstorm westward at a slightly faster forward speed for the next\r\nseveral days.  Julio should gradually gain some latitude by the end\r\nof the forecast period due to the orientation of the ridge, and\r\nmodel guidance has shifted northward at long range on this cycle.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is also adjusted northward, but is still a\r\nbit south of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 13.4N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 13.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 13.2N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 13.3N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 13.6N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 14.4N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 15.2N 139.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nJulio remains sharply sheared from the northeast, and deep\r\nconvection is limited to the western half of the circulation. A\r\nblend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS supports\r\nholding the initial intensity at 40 kt.  The global dynamical\r\nguidance suggests that moderate northwesterly shear will continue\r\nfor at least the next 24 to 36 hours, which should limit the rate\r\nat which the tropical cyclone can strengthen.  After that, the\r\nenvironment is forecast to become more favorable, and the members of\r\nIVCN unanimously indicate that Julio will become a hurricane within\r\n72 hours.  By days 4 and 5, the intensity is expected to level off\r\nwhile the cyclone encounters cooler SSTs due to a combination of the\r\nsharp SST gradient to the northwest, and a possible cold wake from\r\nHurricane Iselle.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 270/11.  The track forecast reasoning is\r\nunchanged and Julio is still expected to be steered generally\r\nwest-northwestward by a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific.  A\r\nslightly more northward component to the motion is expected later\r\nin the forecast period while Julio encounters a slight weakness in\r\nthe mid-level ridge.  The track guidance has shifted north again so\r\nthe NHC track forecast has been nudged northward accordingly.\r\nHowever, it remains slightly south of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 13.5N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 13.3N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 13.4N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 13.7N 126.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 14.1N 129.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 15.0N 134.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 15.7N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 16.5N 146.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Julio has become substantially better organized\r\nduring the past several hours.  Dvorak intensity estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB have increased and now support an initial intensity of\r\n50 kt.  A band of deep convection is beginning to wrap most of the\r\nway around the circulation, and a 1730 UTC ASCAT pass shows that the\r\nlow- and mid-level centers are now close to being vertically\r\naligned.\r\n\r\nJulio has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now\r\n270/14.  A continued westward motion is expected for the next 5\r\ndays while the tropical cyclone moves along the southern periphery\r\nof a strong ridge over the eastern Pacific.  There has been no\r\nsignificant change in the model guidance for this forecast cycle,\r\nand the official forecast now lies very near the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast presents a larger challenge, and several of\r\nthe models now predict more intensification.  DSHP, LGEM, and the\r\nHWRF all suggest that Julio will become a hurricane by tomorrow\r\nafternoon, which seems reasonable given the recent vertical\r\nalignment of the vortex.  After that, there is considerable\r\nuncertainty as to how much additional strengthening will occur, with\r\nDSHP forecasting a 100-kt major hurricane, and GHMI peaking at 70\r\nkt.  The official forecast splits these scenarios and peaks at 85\r\nkt, near the intensity consensus.  Late in the forecast period,\r\nJulio is forecast to pass over cooler SSTs which should lead to\r\nweakening.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 13.5N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 13.4N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 13.7N 125.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 14.1N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 14.6N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 15.4N 136.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 16.0N 142.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 17.0N 149.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 04 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery and an earlier GCOM AMSR2 microwave\r\noverpass show that Julio's cloud pattern continues to\r\ngradually improve. Cold tops of -80 C are now evident in\r\nassociation with the developing banding feature south of the center.\r\nThe AMSR2 pass as well as visible imagery also indicated that deep\r\nconvection is now wrapping around the northeast portion of the\r\ncyclone despite the relatively moderate northeasterly shear.\r\nHowever, the Dvorak subjective and ADT objective satellite\r\nintensity estimates remain unchanged from the previous advisory and\r\nthe initial intensity is held at a conservative 50 kt.  No\r\nsignificant changes were made to the intensity forecast from the\r\nprevious package.  However, the forecast now shows a peak intensity\r\nof 90 kt at the 48- and 72-hour time frame to correspond more with\r\nthe SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nJulio has continued to move at a swift pace this evening and the\r\ninitial motion is estimated to be 270/14.  A mid-tropospheric ridge\r\nextending from the southwest United States and Mexico into the\r\neastern Pacific should steer the cyclone on the same heading and\r\nat a similar forward speed during the next 4 days. After that time,\r\nthe large-scale models show the western extent of the ridge\r\nweakening in response to a mid-latitude trough approaching the\r\nHawaiian Islands from the northwest.  This change in the steering\r\npattern should cause Julio to turn gradually toward the west-\r\nnorthwest, and the model guidance has shifted northward late in the\r\nperiod on this cycle.  The NHC track forecast is therefore\r\nadjusted northward, and lies just to the south of the TVCE multi-\r\nmodel consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 13.5N 122.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 13.7N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 14.2N 127.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 14.7N 130.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 15.2N 133.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 16.0N 138.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 16.5N 145.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nEnhanced BD-curve and shortwave infrared imagery reveal little\r\nchange in the overall cloud pattern of Julio this morning.  A\r\npartial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass caught the west side of the\r\ncyclone and indicated that the winds over the area have actually\r\ndecreased a bit from yesterday's overpass.  Evidently, the 10-15 kt\r\nof northeasterly shear continues to impede intensification of the\r\ncyclone.  Satellite intensity estimates are the same as 6 hours ago,\r\nso the initial intensity remains at 50 kt for this advisory.  The\r\nstatistical/dynamical guidance, however, still indicates\r\nstrengthening through 48 to 60 hours, and both the SHIPS and the\r\nFlorida State Superensemble (FSSE) show a maximum intensity of 80 kt\r\nat that time.  Late in the forecast period, Julio is expected to\r\ntraverse a rather steep sea surface temperature gradient and\r\nencounter a more dry and stable air mass intruding from the\r\nmid-latitudes of the central Pacific.  Both negative contributions\r\nshould promote a weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast\r\nfollows suit, and is based on a blend of the higher SHIPS and FSSE\r\nguidance, which is slightly above the IVCN model.\r\n\r\nA timely 0523 UTC AMSU MHS microwave image was quite helpful in\r\npinpointing the center of circulation.  Julio's initial motion is\r\nestimated to be 275/13 kt, within the mid-level easterly flow\r\nproduced by a mid-tropospheric ridge to the north.  This east-to-\r\nwest oriented ridge is expected to influence a generally westward\r\nheading for the next 3 days.  For the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod, global models show a mid-latitude shortwave trough\r\napproaching from northwest of the Big Island of Hawaii and eroding\r\nthe western extent of the ridge.  The weakening of the ridge is\r\nexpected to cause Julio to turn toward west-northwestward through\r\nday 5.  The NHC forecast is again adjusted slightly to the right,\r\nand is very close to the TVCE multi-model consensus and the FSSE\r\ncorrected consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 13.6N 123.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 13.9N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 14.6N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 15.1N 131.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 15.7N 134.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 16.4N 140.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 17.0N 146.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 19.0N 152.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery indicates that the center of Julio is located on\r\nthe northern edge of the convective canopy, consistent with 10 kt or\r\nso of northeasterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by UW-CIMSS\r\nsatellite analyses and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity\r\nremains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB. Conditions should support gradual strengthening\r\nduring the next 2 to 3 days, and the NHC forecast shows Julio\r\nbecoming a hurricane in about 24 hours. By day 4, the cyclone will\r\nbe moving over more marginal SSTs around 26C, but then back over\r\nwarmer water by day 5. Given that the shear remains relatively low\r\nlate in the period, only a little weakening is shown by day 4 with\r\nthe intensity leveling off afterward. The NHC forecast is a little\r\nabove the IVCN intensity consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and geostationary satellite fixes suggest that the center\r\nis located a little to the north of previous estimates, providing an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 275/11. The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains unchanged, as Julio will be steered generally westward\r\nthrough 96 hours by a mid-level ridge to the north. By day 5, the\r\ncyclone will be approaching the western edge of the ridge, which\r\nshould result in a turn toward the west-northwest. The combination\r\nof the more northward initial position and a northward shift in the\r\nguidance results in the NHC track forecast being nudged northward a\r\nbit. The official forecast close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS\r\nmodels on the south side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 14.0N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 14.4N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 15.1N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 16.1N 135.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 17.0N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 18.0N 147.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 20.0N 152.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery this afternoon indicates that Julio is becoming\r\nbetter organized, with increased convective banding and cloud tops\r\ncolder than -80C near the center.  Satellite intensity estimates are\r\n55 kt and 45 kt from TAFB and SAB respectively.  In addition, an\r\nearlier CIMSS AMSU estimate was 53 kt.  Based on these data, the\r\ninitial intensity is increased to 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 280/12.  A low/mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone should steer it westward to west-northwestward\r\nwith some increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days.\r\nAfter that, the dynamical models forecast the ridge to weaken,\r\nwhich would cause Julio to move more northward.  The track guidance\r\nenvelope is similar to the previous guidance through 72 hours, and\r\nthis part of the forecast is an update of the previous forecast.\r\nFrom 72-120 hours, the guidance envelope has shifted significantly\r\nto the north.  The new forecast track is also shifted northward,\r\nbut it still lies to the south of the consensus models and all of\r\nthe dynamical models except the GFDL/NAVGEM.  If the current model\r\ntrends continue, an additional northward adjustment may be\r\nnecessary in later advisories.  It should be noted that the NOAA\r\nG-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission for\r\nHurricane Iselle, and the data from this mission will hopefully\r\nhelp the subsequent forecasts for Julio.\r\n\r\nJulio is now in a light vertical wind shear environment, and the\r\ndynamical models suggest this will continue through the forecast\r\nperiod.  However, the forecast track takes the system over\r\ngradually decreasing sea surface temperatures during the next 48\r\nhours.  The consensus of the intensity guidance is for continued\r\nstrengthening for the next 36-48 hours, and the increased banding\r\nseen during the last few hours could be the start of a faster\r\nintensification rate.  The new intensity forecast continues to call\r\nfor a peak intensity of 75 kt, and at this time only the\r\nHFIP-sponsored University of Wisconsin model forecasts a higher peak\r\nintensity.  After 48 hours, gradual weakening is expected as the\r\ncenter moves along the 26C isotherm and this part of the new\r\nforecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 14.2N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 14.7N 128.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 16.0N 134.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 16.6N 137.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 17.5N 143.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 19.0N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 21.0N 153.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julio","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 05 2014\r\n\r\nAfter a decrease in the overall thunderstorm activity earlier today,\r\na new burst of deep convection has redeveloped near the center. The\r\noutflow remains fair in all quadrants suggesting that there is\r\nlittle wind shear over the cyclone. Based on satellite estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale, the initial\r\nintensity is been kept at 55 knots. Given the current structure in\r\nboth conventional satellite and microwave data, as well as the\r\nprevailing low shear, it is very likely that Julio will reach\r\nhurricane status within the next 6 to 12 hours. Some additional\r\nstrengthening is then forecast. However, despite the\r\nexpected light shear, the strengthening will be limited by the\r\ncooler ocean ahead of Julio, and the NHC forecast calls for\r\nweakening beyond 36 hours. This is consistent with the intensity\r\nmodels which have an upper intensity limit of 80 knots by the\r\nSHIPS model.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 285 degrees at 13 knots.\r\nJulio is well embedded within the easterly flow around the periphery\r\nof the subtropical ridge. Global models keep a strong ridge to\r\nthe north of the cyclone for the next 2 to 3 days, and forecast some\r\nslight erosion of the western portion of the ridge thereafter. This\r\npattern should keep Julio on a general west-northwest track through\r\nthe forecast period. Although the NHC forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous one, it has been adjusted slightly northward to be\r\nconsistent with the multi-model consensus TVCE and be more centered\r\nwithin the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 14.4N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 14.9N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 15.5N 133.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 16.3N 136.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 17.0N 139.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 18.0N 144.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 22.0N 154.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014\r\n\r\nA small burst of deep convection with cloud tops of -75C to -80C has\r\ndeveloped over the low-level center, resulting in the formation of a\r\ncentral dense overcast feature. In addition, passive microwave\r\nsatellite imagery has been indicating a 75-100 percent closed low-\r\nto mid-level eye feature since about 0100 UTC. Satellite intensity\r\nestimates are a consensus T4.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial\r\nintensity has been increased to 65 kt, making Julio the fifth\r\nhurricane of the 2014 eastern North Pacific season.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/15 kt based on a blend of\r\nconventional and microwave satellite fixes. The NHC model guidance\r\nremains in excellent agreement on Julio moving along the southern\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours\r\nor so. After that, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop north\r\nof the Hawaiian Islands on Days 4 and 5, and Julio is expected to\r\nturn more northwestward, passing just north of the Islands. However,\r\nthe new model runs, which have incorporated the 0000 UTC NOAA G-IV\r\njet dropsonde data are not showing as much erosion of the ridge as\r\nin previous runs, and the response has been a slight southward shift\r\nof the track guidance at 96 and 120 hours. The official forecast\r\ntrack is just an update of the previous advisory track through 72\r\nhours, and was shifted slightly southward after that, similar to the\r\nconsensus model TVCE, but not as far south as the ECMWF model. The\r\nlatter model brings Julio much closer to the Hawaiian Islands since\r\nit no longer develops a break in the ridge.\r\n\r\nThe developing eye feature, low shear of less than 5 kt, and a\r\nmoistening mid-troposphere argue for at least some modest\r\nstrengthening for the next 36 hours or so as Julio moves from a SST\r\ncold pool and over a warmer oceanic ridge. These condition also\r\ntypically favor rapid intensification, which would be a possibility,\r\nexcept for the occasional intrusions of cooler and more stable air\r\nfrom the north. However, it wouldn't be surprising if Julio\r\nreaches its peak intensity a little sooner than forecast while the\r\nupper-level outflow pattern continues to expand. By 48 hours, the\r\ncyclone will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable air\r\nmass, which should induce gradual weakening. The official intensity\r\nforecast is a little higher than the previous advisory and the\r\nconsensus model ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 14.8N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 15.4N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 16.1N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 16.7N 137.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 17.3N 140.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 18.5N 145.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 20.4N 151.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 23.0N 156.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 06 2014\r\n\r\nJulio has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery this\r\nmorning.  While cloud tops near the center are about -80C, AMSR-2\r\nmicrowave imagery a few hours ago showed that the eyewall was open\r\nto the north.  That, combined with a large arc cloud seen moving\r\nnorthward away from the center, suggests that dry air entrainment is\r\noccurring on the north side.  Satellite intensity estimates are 77\r\nkt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB.  Given the current appearance, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 65 kt.  The cirrus outflow is good over\r\nthe southwestern semicircle and poor elsewhere.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is still 285/15, and there is no change to the\r\nforecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  The NHC model\r\nguidance is in good agreement on Julio moving along the southern\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge to its north for the next 72 hours\r\nor so. After that, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop north\r\nof the Hawaiian Islands, and Julio is expected to turn more\r\nnorthwestward and pass north of the Islands.  There is some spread\r\nin the guidance by 96-120 hours.  The ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL are on\r\nthe south side of the guidance envelope forecasting a track closer\r\nto Hawaii, while the GFS, GFS Ensemble Mean, and Canadian models are\r\non the right side of the guidance envelope.  The center of the\r\nenvelope and the consensus models are very close to the previous\r\nforecast, and thus the new forecast track is almost identical to the\r\nprevious forecast.\r\n\r\nJulio is in an environment of light vertical wind shear, and it\r\nshould remain over sea surface temperatures of 26C or warmer for the\r\nnext 12-24 hours.  This should allow some strengthening if the\r\nstorm can fight off the current dry air intrusion.  After that, the\r\ncyclone is forecast to move over sea surface temperatures of\r\n25C-26C, which should cause some weakening.  There is disagreement\r\nin the dynamical models about how much shear Julio should encounter\r\nwhile over the cooler water, particularly near the Hawaiian\r\nIslands. The UKMET forecasts stronger shear, while the GFS/ECMWF are\r\nforecasting less shear.  The intensity forecast leans toward the\r\nGFS/ECMWF scenario and thus calls for Julio to slowly weaken after\r\n36 hours.  The new forecast has minor adjustments from the previous\r\nand is similar to the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 15.2N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 15.7N 132.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 17.0N 138.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 17.7N 141.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 19.0N 147.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 21.0N 152.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 24.0N 157.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows that Julio has become a little better\r\norganized, with multiple convective bands near the center and\r\nan eye possibly trying to form.  The latest SSM/IS overpass,\r\nthough, suggests the eyewall is still open to the north.  The\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 kt and\r\n65 kt, so the initial intensity remains at a possibly-conservative\r\n65 kt.  The cirrus outflow remains good over the southwestern\r\nsemicircle and poor elsewhere.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 290/15, which is a little to the right of\r\nthe previous advisory.  The NHC model guidance is in good agreement\r\non Julio moving along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge\r\nto its north for the next 72 hours or so. After that, a weakness in\r\nthe ridge is forecast to develop north of the Hawaiian Islands, and\r\nJulio is expected to turn more northwestward.  Based on current\r\ntrends, Julio is likely to be a little north of the previous\r\nforecast during the first 48 hours or so.  However, at the later\r\ntimes the dynamical models have shifted southward since their\r\nprevious forecasts, with the most notable shift by the GFS.  The\r\nconsensus models and the center of the guidance envelope have also\r\nshifted southward at 96-120 hours.  The new track forecast will\r\nalso be adjusted southward at those times, but it lies a little to\r\nthe north of the consensus models. The NOAA G-IV jet is currently\r\nflying a synoptic surveillance mission for Hurricane Iselle, and\r\nthis data is also expected to help subsequent forecasts of Julio.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models have come into reasonably good agreement that\r\nJulio will remain in a light vertical wind shear environment through\r\nthe forecast period.  Thus, the intensity is most likely going to be\r\ncontrolled by sea surface temperatures and nearby dry air.  While\r\nJulio is moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures,\r\nsome additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours\r\nor so.  After that, the cyclone is expected to traverse sea surface\r\ntemperatures of 25C-26C and gradually move into a drier air mass.\r\nThis should cause a gradual weakening for the rest of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The new intensity forecast is adjusted slightly from the\r\nprevious forecast and is in best agreement with the intensity\r\nconsensus.  It should be noted that despite the marginal sea surface\r\ntemperatures and moisture, none of the dynamical models forecast\r\nJulio to dissipate during the next 5 days.  Indeed, the GFDL and\r\nHWRF are stronger than the current forecast at 96-120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 15.8N 131.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 16.3N 134.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 16.9N 137.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 17.4N 140.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 18.0N 143.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 19.5N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 21.5N 154.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 24.5N 158.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 06 2014\r\n\r\nJulio has strengthened during the last several hours.  The eye of\r\nthe hurricane, which is quite distinct in microwave images, has\r\nrecently become apparent in infrared satellite images.  In addition,\r\nthe convective pattern is more symmetric about the center than it\r\nwas earlier today.  The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt, using\r\na blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS\r\nADT.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is currently over sea surface temperatures of about\r\n27 C, and in an atmosphere of low shear and relatively high\r\nmoisture. Therefore, some additional strengthening is possible\r\nduring the overnight hours.   After that time, however, Julio is\r\nexpected to cross the 26 C isotherm and should remain over 25-26 C\r\nwater for the next few days.  These cool waters combined with a\r\ndrier air mass should cause the system to slowly weaken.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 290/14.  A\r\ndeep-layer ridge to the north of Julio is expected to keep the\r\nsystem moving westward to west-northwestward for the next few days.\r\nBeyond that time, the models are in fairly good agreement in\r\nshowing a break in the ridge developing due to a large trough\r\nmoving eastward over the north Pacific.  This change in the\r\nsteering pattern should cause Julio to turn more toward the\r\nnorthwest in 4 to 5 days.  The track guidance has changed little\r\nthis cycle, and the NHC forecast is largely an update of the\r\nprevious one.  Based on the latest forecast, Julio will be near or\r\nto the north of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 16.4N 133.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 16.9N 135.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 17.4N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 17.9N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 18.5N 144.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 20.3N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 22.8N 155.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 25.5N 160.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014\r\n\r\nJulio's signature in infrared satellite imagery has improved since\r\nthe last advisory.  The hurricane is compact and symmetric, and the\r\neye has cleared out during the past few hours.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates have all increased and are now T5.0/90 kt from TAFB,\r\nT4.5/77 kt from SAB, and T5.2/95 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.  A blend\r\nof these data supports increasing the winds to 85 kt on this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nThe forward speed has increased a bit to 290/15 kt.  Julio is\r\nexpected to remain south of the subtropical ridge for the next few\r\ndays, which will keep it on a westward to west-northwestward\r\ntrajectory.  Global model fields are now indicating that a break in\r\nthe ridge currently to the north of Hawaii may fill in just enough\r\nover the next few days to keep Julio from turning northwestward at\r\nthe end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is tightly\r\nclustered for the first 48 hours.  After that time, the ECMWF model\r\nis a noticeable outlier compared to the rest of the models, showing\r\nJulio taking a more northern route as it is steered around a more\r\nstrongly depicted mid-level high northeast of Hawaii.  The updated\r\nNHC forecast is largely unchanged from the previous one and lies\r\njust to the northeast of the multi-model consensus TVCE after 72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nJulio is essentially straddling the 26C sea surface temperature\r\nisotherm and is expected to move over water between 25-26C during\r\nthe next 3 days or so.  Even though water temperatures are\r\nmarginal for strengthening, Julio has a few other factors going for\r\nit.  Vertical shear is expected to remain light for another 2 days,\r\nand Julio appears to be embedded within a much larger moisture\r\nenvelope than Iselle has had to work with.  In addition, Julio's\r\nfast motion may help to mitigate the negative influence of\r\nupper-ocean mixing of cooler waters.  Therefore, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast allows for the possibility of further strengthening during\r\nthe next 12 hours or so and keeps Julio at hurricane strength for\r\nthe next 2-3 days.  Only gradual weakening is anticipated at the end\r\nof the forecast period since Julio will be moving over increasingly\r\nwarmer waters to the north and west of Hawaii.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 16.8N 134.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 17.2N 137.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 17.7N 140.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 18.3N 143.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 19.0N 146.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 21.0N 151.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 23.5N 156.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 25.0N 161.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 07 2014\r\n\r\nDespite moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, Julio is\r\ncontinuing to strengthen.  The eye has become better defined during\r\nthe past few hours, and the cloud top temperatures in the eyewall\r\nhave cooled.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, and objective estimates from the\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT are near 100 kt.  The initial intensity is increased\r\nto 90 kt based on a blend of these data.  The cirrus outflow is good\r\nto excellent over the western semicircle and poor elsewhere.\r\n\r\nJulio has turned a little to the left and the initial motion is now\r\n280/16.  Julio is expected to remain south of the subtropical ridge\r\nfor the next few days, which will keep it on a westward to\r\nwest-northwestward trajectory.  During the first 72 hours, the\r\ntrack guidance is tightly clustered near the new forecast track with\r\nthe notable exception of the GFDL model, which forecasts a track\r\nnear the Hawaiian Islands.  After 72 hours, the guidance has come\r\ninto better agreement that the subtropical ridge north of Hawaii\r\nwill be stronger than earlier forecast, and that Julio should\r\ncontinue a west-northwesterly to westward motion.  This has reduced,\r\nbut not eliminated, the spread in the track guidance at 96 and 120\r\nhours. The new track forecast is just south of the previous forecast\r\nthrough 72 hours, then is adjusted farther south from the previous\r\ntrack at the later forecast times. The new forecast lies near or\r\njust to the north of the multi-model consensus and the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical\r\nwind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone\r\npasses over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C.  All of the\r\nintensity guidance forecasts a gradual weakening during that time,\r\nand the intensity forecast follows this scenario.  The intensity\r\nforecast becomes more uncertain after 72 hours as Julio starts\r\nmoving over warmer sea surface temperatures.  During this period,\r\nthe statistical guidance is forecasting a weaker storm than the\r\ndynamical guidance, and the the large-scale models have some\r\ndisagreement on how much shear Julio will encounter.  The later part\r\nof the forecast is nudged upward as a compromise between the two\r\nmodel camps.  Overall, the new forecast lies close to the intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 16.9N 136.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 17.3N 138.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 17.8N 141.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 18.5N 144.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 19.3N 147.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 21.5N 153.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 23.5N 158.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 24.5N 162.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014\r\n\r\nJulio has changed little in organization during the past several\r\nhours.  The eye has become a little better defined in visible\r\nimagery.  However, the temperature and symmetry of the eyewall\r\ncloud tops are about the same as they were 6 hours ago.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates remain 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB.  In\r\naddition, UW-CIMSS ADT/SATCON estimates are near 100 kt, and there\r\nwas a recent AMSU intensity estimate of 98 kt.  The initial\r\nintensity remains at a possibly conservative 90 kt.  The cirrus\r\noutflow is good to excellent over the western semicircle and poor\r\nelsewhere.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 280/15.  Julio is expected to remain south\r\nof the subtropical ridge for the next few days, which will keep it\r\non a westward to west-northwestward path.  During the first 72\r\nhours, the track guidance remains tightly clustered near the new\r\nforecast track with the notable exception of the outlier GFDL model,\r\nwhich still forecasts a track near the Hawaiian Islands.  After 72\r\nhours, the guidance has come into better agreement that the\r\nsubtropical ridge north of Hawaii will be stronger than earlier\r\nforecast, and that Julio should turn more westward.  However, there\r\nis still some spread in the guidance, with the UKMET forecasting a\r\ncontinued west-northwestward motion and the ECMWF forecasting a turn\r\ntoward the west-southwest.  The multi-model consensus lies near the\r\nprevious forecast track, so the new track is just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory.  The NOAA G-IV jet is currently flying a synoptic\r\nsurveillance mission for Julio.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast Julio to remain in a light vertical\r\nwind shear environment during the next 2-3 days as the cyclone\r\npasses over sea surface temperatures of 25C-26C.  The intensity\r\nguidance is in excellent agreement in showing a gradual weakening\r\nduring that time, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario.\r\nThe agreement breaks down after 72 hours as Julio starts moving over\r\nwarmer sea surface temperatures.  During that period, the SHIPS/LGEM\r\nmodels forecast Julio to be a moderate strength tropical storm,\r\nwhile the GFDL/HWRF models forecast it to be a hurricane.  In\r\naddition, the large-scale models have some disagreement on how\r\nmuch shear Julio will encounter.  The later part of the forecast is\r\nstill a compromise between the two model camps, and the new forecast\r\nlies close to the intensity consensus.  It is possible that Julio\r\ncould get a little stronger than forecast during the next 6-12\r\nhours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 17.1N 137.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 17.5N 140.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 18.1N 143.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 18.8N 146.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 19.8N 148.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 22.0N 154.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 24.0N 159.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 24.5N 163.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Julio","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP102014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102014\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 07 2014\r\n\r\nDespite a marginal environment, Julio has become better organized\r\nover the past several hours with warming temperatures in the eye\r\nand strong convection in the eyewall. Subjective and objective\r\nDvorak estimates from all agencies suggest that the intensity has\r\nincreased to at least 100 kt, so the initial wind speed is raised to\r\nthat value.\r\n\r\nWith few outer bands and a symmetric structure around the eye,\r\nJulio now appears to have become an annular hurricane, much like\r\nIselle in the same general area a few days ago.  While guidance\r\nis generally showing a steady or quick weakening, these hurricanes\r\nare known to be more resilent to marginal environments than most.\r\nSince little change is expected to the SSTs or shear for the next\r\nday or so, it makes sense to go above the model guidance at that\r\ntime with the current annular structure, and the NHC prediction is\r\nraised from the previous one.  An increase in westerly shear after\r\nthat time could cause Julio to transition into a more conventional\r\ncyclone structure, so the intensity forecast is blended with the\r\nprevious interpolated forecast and the model consensus.  At long\r\nrange, although the SSTs are forecast to rise, there could also be\r\nan increase in shear.  With the large uncertainty, little change is\r\nmade to the extended-range intensity prediction.\r\n\r\nJulio is moving at about 280/14.  There has been no change to the\r\nforecast synoptic pattern with the hurricane expected to remain\r\nsouth of the subtropical ridge for the next few days, with a\r\nwestward turn at long range due to the ridge strengthening.  Track\r\nguidance is in better agreement than the last cycle, with even\r\nthe GFDL model, formerly an outlier solution near Hawaii, shifting\r\nnorthward away from the islands.  The new NHC prediction is\r\nadjusted a bit to the north at longer range, close to the model\r\nconsensus, although most of the better performing individual models\r\nare still farther north.  It should be noted that data from a NOAA\r\nG-IV jet synoptic surveillance mission for Julio should be included\r\nin the 0000 UTC model runs.\r\n\r\nJulio is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane\r\nCenter's area of responsibility by 0900 UTC and will issue the next\r\nadvisory on this system.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 17.4N 139.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 17.8N 141.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 18.5N 144.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 19.4N 147.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 20.6N 149.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 22.9N 154.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 24.2N 159.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 25.0N 163.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-08-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of\r\nMexico has continued to become better organized this evening with\r\nconvection consolidating near the low-level center along with\r\nincreased banding features.  Since earlier scatterometer data\r\nindicated that the center had become well defined, the low now meets\r\nthe criteria for a tropical depression.  The initial intensity is\r\nset to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite estimate from\r\nTAFB.\r\n\r\nThe depression is likely to travel over warm waters for the next\r\nseveral days with light-to-moderate northeasterly shear.  There are\r\nno obvious factors that would preclude intensification, so steady\r\nstrengthening is shown in the official NHC forecast. This prediction\r\nis above the model consensus, but is not nearly as robust as the\r\nSHIPS model which makes the depression a hurricane in a couple of\r\ndays.  It is worth noting that this is a fairly conservative\r\nintensity forecast, especially if the more favorable upper-level\r\nenvironment predicted by the GFS model verifies.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 285/14.  A\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build\r\nwestward during the next couple of days, which should cause the\r\ndepression to turn toward the west.  Model guidance is generally in\r\ngood agreement through that time and the NHC forecast is close to\r\nthe model consensus.  Thereafter, the forecast is complicated by a\r\npossible disturbance within the ITCZ to the southeast of the cyclone\r\nand a potential break in the ridge along 130W.  While the former\r\nfeature would help bend the track of the tropical cyclone more\r\ntoward the southwest, the break in the ridge could cause a more\r\npoleward track.  The ITCZ disturbance interaction seems like the\r\nless dominant feature at this time, so the official forecast is\r\na little northwest of the model consensus at long range.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.5N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.8N 110.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 16.7N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 16.7N 117.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 17.0N 121.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-08-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has been gradually increasing near and to the west\r\nof the center of the depression during the last several hours.  The\r\nbanding features, however, have become a little less defined\r\nrecently.  ASCAT passes at 0420 and 0506 UTC showed maximum winds of\r\nabout 30 kt, and Dvorak intensity estimates also support an\r\nintensity of that value.  Therefore, the initial wind speed estimate\r\nremains 30 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt on the\r\nsouthwest side of a mid-level ridge centered over the south-central\r\nUnited States.  This ridge is expected to build over the Pacific\r\nOcean, which should steer the tropical cyclone westward away from\r\nMexico during the next several days.  The model guidance has shifted\r\na little to the north and is faster this cycle, and the official\r\ntrack forecast has been adjusted to account for these changes.  The\r\nECMWF is now in better agreement with the remainder of the guidance\r\nas the latest run shows less interaction with a developing\r\ndisturbance to the east of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nModerate northeasterly shear is currently affecting the system,\r\nwhich is likely the reason why the convection is currently displaced\r\nto the west of the center.  The shear is expected to lessen during\r\nthe next day or so, and the environmental winds are anticipated to\r\nremain conducive for development through the remainder of the\r\nforecast period.  In addition, warm water and a relatively moist\r\nair mass should also support strengthening.  The SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels respond to the favorable environment and show a steady\r\nstrengthening trend.  Conversely, the HWRF and GFDL models predict\r\nlittle or no strengthening of the system.  Given the aforementioned\r\nenvironmental conditions, the official intensity forecast remains\r\nhigher than the consensus in favor of the SHIPS and LGEM solution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 17.0N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 17.4N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 17.5N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 17.6N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 17.7N 118.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 18.2N 123.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 18.5N 126.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-08-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 13 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has continued to increase with cloud tops of -80C\r\nto -84C noted just west of low-level center. Satellite intensity\r\nestimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS\r\nADT. An earlier ASCAT overpass also indicated surface winds near\r\n34 kt. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to\r\nTropical Storm Karina.\r\n\r\nKarina is moving westward at 13 kt along the southwestern periphery\r\nof a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge anchored over the\r\nsouth-central and southwestern United States. The ridge is forecast\r\nby the global models to build westward to the north and northwest\r\nof the cyclone, which should keep Karina on a basic westward motion\r\nthroughout the 5-day period. The model guidance envelope has\r\nshifted a little to the south with increasing spread, especially\r\nbeyond 72 hours. This is mainly due to the significant southward\r\nshift by the ECMWF model, which shows a much weaker system being\r\nsteered more southwestward by moderate northeasterly trade wind\r\nflow. The ECMWF model is considered to be an outlier at this time,\r\nand the official track forecast is just a little faster than the\r\nprevious advisory and lies near the consensus model TCVE.\r\n\r\nKarina is experiencing northeasterly vertical wind shear of 12-14\r\nkt. Despite these modest shear conditions, the convective cloud\r\npattern of Karina has continued to develop into a classic hooked\r\nband appearance, plus a small central dense overcast feature.\r\nMicrowave satellite data also suggests that the inner core wind\r\nfield has tightened somewhat up since the previous advisory. With\r\nthe wind shear currently affecting the system forecast to slowly\r\nsubside over the next 4 to 5 days while the cyclone is over 28-29C\r\nSSTs, steady intensification appears likely. This development\r\nscenario is consistent with the trend of all of the NHC model\r\nguidance, and the NHC official intensity forecast indicates this by\r\nmaking Karina a hurricane by 48 hours, which is higher than the ICON\r\nintensity consensus model and closer to the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 17.2N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 17.4N 112.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 17.5N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 17.6N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 17.8N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 18.3N 124.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 18.5N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 18.5N 131.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-08-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014\r\n\r\nKarina is experiencing some issues with dry air entrainment and\r\nmodest north to northeasterly wind shear since the previous\r\nadvisory, which has resulted in some erosion of the large outer\r\nconvective band on the west side along with the central deep\r\nconvection. However, two recent scatterometer overpasses indicate\r\nthat Karina's circulation is well developed and compact, and that\r\nthe radius of maximum winds has decreased to around 10-15 nmi. The\r\ninitial intensity is set at 45 kt based on surface wind data of 40\r\nkt from a 1649 UTC ASCAT-B overpass and 41 kt from a 1736 UTC\r\nASCAT-A overpass, and assuming that the scatterometers are\r\nunder-sampling the very small inner-core wind field.\r\n\r\nKarina continues to move westward or 275/13 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.\r\nKarina is expected to maintain a general westward motion for the\r\nnext 5 days as the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of\r\na deep-layer subtropical ridge. The model guidance is tightly packed\r\nthrough 72 hours, with the models diverging significantly after\r\nthat. However, the model spread has decreased on this cycle now that\r\nthe new 1200 UTC ECMWF model run has shifted farther to the north,\r\ncloser to the other global models and the previous NHC forecast\r\ntrack. The new forecast is just an update of the previous advisory\r\ntrack and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nConvection has developed during the past few hours within the dry\r\nslot in the eastern semicircle, and a small burst of convection has\r\nalso developed very near the well-defined low-level circulation\r\ncenter. All of this would suggest that the aforementioned dry air\r\nissues will likely be short-lived. Over the next 3 days, the\r\nvertical shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt while the\r\ncyclone remains over SSTs of 28C-29C and within a fairly moist\r\nmid-level environment. Only the proximity to cooler and more stable\r\nair just west and northwest of the cyclone precludes a near-term\r\nforecast of rapid intensification. However, the trend over the next\r\n72 hours calls for at least steady intensification, with Karina\r\nreaching hurricane strength by 36 hours. After that, the cyclone\r\nwill be moving over cooler SSTS and into a more stable air mass,\r\nwhich should induce gradual weakening. However, the low vertical\r\nwind shear environment is expected to result in slower weakening\r\nthan normally would occur over such marginal SSTs on Days 4 and 5.\r\nThe NHC official intensity forecast remains higher than the ICON\r\nintensity consensus model, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and\r\nGFDL models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 17.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 17.3N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 17.4N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 17.6N 119.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 18.2N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 18.4N 129.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-08-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 13 2014\r\n\r\nAnalyses from the University of Wisconsin indicate that about 15 kt\r\nof east-northeasterly shear is affecting the cyclone, but recent\r\nmicrowave images suggest that Karina is succeeding in maintaining a\r\ntight inner core.  Maximum winds are held at 45 kt on this advisory\r\nbased on Dvorak estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB and\r\nT2.8/41 kt from the ADT.  Even though vertical shear is expected to\r\nonly gradually diminish during the next day or two, its easterly to\r\neast-northeasterly direction should still allow strengthening during\r\nthat time.  In fact, the SHIPS rapid intensification index is\r\nshowing a 1 in 3 chance of a 25-kt increase in winds during the next\r\n24 hours.  Since environmental conditions appear favorable for\r\ncontinued strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast is near the\r\nupper end of the guidance, closely following the SHIPS and FSU\r\nSuperensemble models during the first 3 days.  Only gradual\r\nweakening is indicated on days 4 and 5, mainly due to less favorable\r\nthermodynamic conditions.\r\n\r\nKarina continues moving westward, or 275/13 kt, to the south of the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected to continuing exerting\r\nits influence for the next several days, and the track guidance is\r\ntightly clustered on a westward trajectory through 48 hours.  The\r\nspread in the guidance beyond 48 hours appears to be the result of\r\nhow Karina interacts with two adjacent disturbances.  The GFS shows\r\nKarina interacting with a strengthening cyclone to its west, with\r\nthe resulting flow keeping it farther north and on the northern side\r\nof the guidance envelope.  The ECMWF, on the other hand, shows more\r\ninteraction between Karina and a possible cyclone to its east, which\r\nforces Karina southwestward and on the southern side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  Due to the high uncertainty in how the pattern will\r\nevolve by day 5, the official forecast maintains Karina on a general\r\nwestward, but decelerating, motion toward the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 17.4N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 17.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 17.6N 118.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 17.7N 120.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 18.0N 122.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 18.5N 127.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 18.0N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-08-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Karina has been expanding during\r\nthe last several hours, and microwave images suggest that the\r\nstorm is maintaining a tight inner core.  Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB were both 3.0/45 kt at 0600 UTC, but\r\nrecent ADT values from UW-CIMSS are a little higher.  The initial\r\nwind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt based on the latest trends.\r\n\r\nEast-northeasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt is currently affecting\r\nKarina, which is restricting the outflow on the east side of the\r\ncirculation.  Although the shear is not expected to change much\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours, it should lessen beyond that time\r\nperiod.  The official intensity forecast continues to call for\r\nsteady strengthening during the next few days while Karina remains\r\nover warm water and in a relatively moist air mass.  Gradual\r\nweakening is predicted in 4 to 5 days when the system moves\r\nover more marginal sea surface temperatures.  This forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and remains at the upper end of the\r\nmodel guidance.\r\n\r\nKarina is moving westward at about 12 kt on the southwest side of a\r\ndeep layer ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southwestern\r\nUnited States.  This ridge is expected to build westward over the\r\nPacific Ocean, which should keep the storm moving westward at about\r\nthe same forward speed for the next few days.  After that time, the\r\ntrack forecast is complicated by the potential interaction with\r\nother low pressure areas moving out of the Intertropical Convergence\r\nZone.  The GFS shows a more northerly track of Karina due its\r\ninteraction with a disturbance to the west of the storm, while the\r\nECMWF shows a more southerly track due to its interaction with the\r\ndeveloping system to the east of Karina. The NHC track forecast is\r\nbetween these scenarios, close to the model consensus, and is just a\r\ntad to the north of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 17.4N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 17.5N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.7N 119.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 18.2N 123.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 18.6N 128.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 18.2N 131.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 18.0N 133.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-08-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 14 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has continued to increase and expand into a large\r\ncanopy of cloud tops of -80C to -85C. Passive microwave satellite\r\nfixes indicate that the low-level center is located farther into the\r\nnortheastern portion of the convective cloud shield and that a\r\nmid-level eye feature has developed closer to the center of the\r\ncloud mass. However, the mid-level eye is displaced or tilted at\r\nleast 15-20 nmi southwest of the low-level center due to modest\r\nnortheasterly shear impinging on the cyclone. Despite the shear\r\nconditions, satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB are a\r\nconsensus T3.5/55 kt, and estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and AMSU are\r\n57 kt and 55 kt, respectively. Based on these data, the initial\r\nintensity estimate is raised to 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/09 kt and is based primarily on\r\nmicrowave satellite position fixes over the past 9 hours. The\r\nforecast track and reasoning remain unchanged over the past 24 hours\r\nwith Karina expected to move in a general westward direction during\r\nthe forecast period due to the presence of a strong subtropical\r\nridge located to the north of the cyclone. By Day 5, however, the\r\nforecast become a little murky due to several models developing\r\nmultiple tropical cyclones in the central Pacific and eastern\r\nPacific basins that begin to interact with Karina in some form or\r\nfashion. Rather than committing to any one particular solution, the\r\nNHC track forecast just shows a significant slow down in Karina's\r\nmotion. The official forecast track has been nudged slightly south\r\nof the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model\r\nTVCE, except at 120 hours due to the expected slower forward speed.\r\n\r\nNortheasterly shear of 10 to 15 kt has been affecting Karina during\r\nthe past 12 hours or so, and the shear is expected to increase\r\nslightly over the next 24 hours. However, other environmental and\r\noceanic conditions are expected to be favorable for additional\r\nstrengthening to occur, so the NHC intensity forecast still calls\r\nfor steady strengthening through the next 36 hours or so, followed\r\nby a leveling off of the intensity due to the cyclone moving over\r\nmarginal SSTs near 26C and into a more stable air mass. The official\r\nintensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous\r\nforecast, and remains above all of the available intensity guidance\r\nbut follows the development trend in the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 17.2N 115.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 17.4N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 17.9N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 18.1N 124.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 18.2N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 17.9N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 17.8N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-08-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014\r\n\r\nDespite moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear, Karina has\r\nmanaged to develop a closed mid-level eye with a diameter of around\r\n10-12 nmi since the previous advisory as noted in recent SSMI/S and\r\nAMSU microwave imagery. Visible satellite imagery also indicates\r\nthat a cloud-filled eye has appeared in the middle of the nearly\r\ncircular CDO during past hour or so. Satellite intensity estimates\r\nare a consensus T4.0/65 kt, and ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nhave been steady at T4.4/75 kt for the past couple of hours. As a\r\nresult of these data, the intensity has been increased to 65 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/13 kt, which is based primarily\r\non passive microwave satellite position fixes. Karina's apparent\r\nwestward acceleration is likely due to the low-level center moving\r\nor reforming underneath the well-defined mid-level eye. As a result,\r\nthis westward jog is expected to be a temporary motion, and Karina\r\nshould slow down somewhat in the near-term. Otherwise, the\r\nhurricane is expected to remain on a basic westward track for the\r\nnext 4 days as Karina is steered by a deep-layer ridge to its north.\r\nAfterwards, the cyclone is expected to slow down significantly and\r\nmake a turn toward the west-southwest or southwest as Karina begins\r\nto interact with possible multiple tropical cyclones developing in\r\nthe central Pacific and eastern Pacific basins. As mentioned in the\r\nprevious discussion, rather than committing to any one particular\r\nmodel solution this far out in time, the NHC track forecast instead\r\njust shows a significant slow down in Karina's motion. The official\r\nforecast track is just an extension of the previous advisory track,\r\nand lies south of the consensus model TVCE, near the extreme\r\nsouthern edge of the NHC guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe GFS-based SHIPS model indicates that the vertical shear is\r\nexpected to increase to near 20 kt during the 12-24 hour period,\r\nwhile the shear vector veers around to the east. Given the\r\nwell-defined and small eye mentioned previously, some additional\r\nstrengthening is expected while Karina remains in favorable\r\nthermodynamic and oceanic environments. By 36 hours and beyond, the\r\nshear is forecast to decrease significantly, but this will occur\r\nwhen the cyclone is moving over marginal SSTs. The result is that\r\na general leveling off of the intensity is expected, although there\r\ncould obviously be some fluctuations in the intensity due to\r\ninternal eyewall dynamics that can not be forecast this far in\r\nadvance. The official intensity forecast remains well above the\r\nconsensus model ICON due to the persistent weakening of Karina\r\nshown by the GFDL and HWRF models thus far, and instead follows the\r\ntrend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 17.1N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.4N 119.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 17.8N 121.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 18.1N 123.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 18.2N 125.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 18.1N 129.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 17.7N 132.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 17.6N 134.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-08-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 14 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's structure has degraded significantly since the last\r\nadvisory.  A 2326 UTC AMSU pass showed that the low-level center has\r\nbecome displaced from the deep convection due to 20-25 kt of\r\neasterly shear, as diagnosed by CIMSS at the University of\r\nWisconsin.  In addition, cloud top temperatures have warmed during\r\nthe past few hours.  The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on\r\nthe latest TAFB Dvorak estimate, but this could be a little\r\ngenerous.\r\n\r\nThe recent evolution of Karina's structure makes the intensity\r\nforecast quite tricky.  The SHIPS and LGEM models appear to be\r\nresponding to less of a positive contribution from persistence and\r\nGOES satellite predictors, and show much less strengthening than\r\nbefore.  The GFDL and HWRF, on the other hand, continue their\r\npattern of showing more immediate weakening.  Since vertical shear\r\nis expected to remain rather strong for another 36-48 hours, Karina\r\nmay have a difficult time recovering.  Therefore, the new NHC\r\nintensity forecast has been lowered for the entire forecast period\r\nbut still lies above all of the guidance, especially beyond 24\r\nhours.  If Karina cannot recover soon, however, subsequent forecasts\r\nwill likely require additional decreases to fall in line with the\r\npreponderance of the intensity model solutions.\r\n\r\nThe mid-tropospheric pattern consists of a mid-level high centered\r\nover the southwestern U.S. with a ridge extending west-southwestward\r\nover the Pacific.  The ridge is steering Karina westward, or\r\n270/11 kt, and the subtropical ridge is expected to keep the cyclone\r\non a westward or west-northwestward track through the forecast\r\nperiod.  Karina could begin to interact with one or two adjacent\r\ndisturbances toward the end of the forecast period, possibly forcing\r\nit to move west-southwestward and at a slower speed by day 5.  The\r\ntrack guidance envelope shifted to the north on this cycle, but it\r\nwas not enough to require a significant change from the previous\r\nofficial forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 17.1N 118.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 17.4N 119.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 17.9N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 18.3N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 18.4N 126.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 18.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 17.5N 133.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 17.0N 136.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-08-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014\r\n\r\nKarina continues to experience 20-25 kt of easterly vertical wind\r\nshear, which has caused the center to become partly exposed on the\r\neastern side of the deep convection.  Satellite intensity estimates\r\nare 65 kt from SAB and 55 kt from TAFB.  The initial intensity is\r\ndecreased to 60 kt, and this may a little generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 275/10.  Karina remains on the south side\r\nof a mid-level ridge that extends from the southwestern United\r\nStates westward over the Pacific.  This feature should steer the\r\nstorm generally westward to west-northwestward for the next 2-3\r\ndays.  After that time, the guidance becomes divergent, partly due\r\nto how the models show Karina interacting with other nearby tropical\r\ndisturbances.  The ECMWF and Canadian models forecast a low pressure\r\narea east of Karina causing the cyclone to turn generally west-\r\nsouthwestward.  The UKMET and NAVGEM also show a low to the east.\r\nHowever, they forecast it to have less influence on Karina, with the\r\nUKMET showing a continued westward track and the NAVGEM showing a\r\nturn toward the north.  The GFS shows less development east of\r\nKarina and instead forecasts the cyclone to interact with a\r\ndisturbance to the southwest, which causes Karina to continue\r\nwestward to west-northwestward.  Given the uncertainty, the new\r\nforecast track will follow the previous forecast in showing a\r\nwest-southwestward turn in best agreement with the ECMWF, HWRF, and\r\nthe Florida State Superensemble models.  The new track lies to the\r\nsouth of the center of the guidance envelope and the other consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models suggest the current shear could continue for\r\nanother 24-30 hours.  Based on this and the current structure of\r\nthe storm, the early part of the intensity forecast is revised\r\nsignificantly downward from the previous advisory.  After that time,\r\nthe forecast remains tricky.  The shear is expected to decrease\r\nwhile Karina moves over sea surface temperatures of near 26C.  This\r\ncould allow Karina to re-intensify as forecast by the GFDL and the\r\nNavy COAMPS models.  However, any deviation north of the forecast\r\ntrack would take the system over colder water, which would prevent\r\nstrengthening.  The possible interaction with the other disturbances\r\nwould also hinder re-intensification, and the Canadian model shows\r\nKarina starting to get absorbed by the eastern disturbance near the\r\nend of the forecast period.  Since there are so many possibilities,\r\nthe latter part of the intensity forecast is low confidence.  It\r\ncalls for Karina to maintain a 50 kt intensity from 24-120 hours,\r\nwhich is stronger than much of the guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.2N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.6N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 18.1N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 18.4N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 18.4N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 18.0N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 17.5N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 17.0N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-08-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014\r\n\r\nKarina is displaying quite vigorous convection with very cold cloud\r\ntops, but almost exclusively in the southwestern semicircle - a\r\nclassic symptom of moderate vertical shear.  The 15-20 kt deep layer\r\nshear continues to cause some weakening as the TAFB and SAB Dvorak\r\nand CIMSS AMSU estimates suggest an intensity of around 55 kt. The\r\nCIMSS ADT, on the other hand, does not recognize the shear pattern\r\nin the deep convection and is likely substantially too high.  The\r\ncurrent intensity is analyzed at 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe short-term trend in intensity - primarily driven by the hostile\r\nvertical shear - suggests some further weakening, which is\r\nconsistent with all the intensity guidance.  The official intensity\r\nforecast out through two days is thus slightly below that from the\r\nprevious advisory.  In about 36 hours, the shear should abate some,\r\nbut the SSTs and atmospheric instability should decrease along the\r\nforecast track.  The guidance responds by making almost no change to\r\nthe intensity out through three days.  At days four and five, some\r\nof the guidance suggests a re-invigoration of Karina.  However,\r\nbecause of the rather high uncertainty of Karina's position and\r\npossible interaction with other disturbances, the intensity forecast\r\nshows no change at the long-lead predictions.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 280/10.  Karina remains on the south side\r\nof a mid-level ridge that extends from the southwestern United\r\nStates westward over the Pacific.  This feature should steer the\r\nstorm generally westward for the next couple of days with a slight\r\nturn toward the west-southwest by day three.  After that time, the\r\nguidance becomes divergent, partly due to how the models show Karina\r\ninteracting with other nearby tropical disturbances.  The ECMWF\r\nmodel forecasts a low pressure area east of Karina causing the\r\ncyclone to turn farther west-southwestward.  The UKMET and NAVGEM\r\nalso show a low to the east. However, they forecast it to have less\r\ninfluence on Karina, with the UKMET showing a continued westward\r\ntrack and the NAVGEM showing a turn toward the north.  The new GFS\r\nhas changed and now also shows a northward turn at day five.  Given\r\nthe uncertainty, the new forecast track shows a west-southwestward\r\nturn at day three followed by a westward shift by day five in best\r\nagreement with the variable consensus model. The new forecast track\r\nis nearly the same as the previous advisory, except slightly slower\r\nto the west at days four and five.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 17.4N 120.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 17.8N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 18.1N 124.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 18.4N 126.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 18.4N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 17.7N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 17.5N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-08-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Karina has been gradually\r\ndeteriorating during the day. Microwave data reveal that the center\r\ncontinues to be located to the north of a small area of deep\r\nconvection. The upper-level outflow is very limited due to\r\nnortheasterly shear. Consequently, the Dvorak T-numbers have\r\ncontinued to decrease, supporting a generous initial intensity of 45\r\nknots. It appears that Karina will continue within an environment\r\nunfavorable for strengthening, but not hostile enough to weaken the\r\ncyclone either. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity\r\nduring the next 5 days, although there is a small possibility of\r\nslight strengthening beyond 4 days, when the cyclone reaches warmer\r\nwaters. In fact, this is the solution of the HWRF model.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 280 degrees at 10 knots.\r\nKarina continues to be steered by the flow around a persistent\r\nsubtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge\r\nwestward beyond 3 days, and this pattern should force Karina to move\r\non a more west to west-southwest track with a decrease in forward\r\nspeed. By day 5, Karina will probably begin to meander within a\r\nvery weak steering flow. The NHC forecast is similar to the previous\r\none and follows the trend of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 17.6N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 18.0N 122.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 18.3N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 18.3N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 18.1N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 17.0N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 17.0N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 15 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern of Karina continues to deteriorate, with the\r\ncoverage of cold cloud tops decreasing during the past few hours.\r\nThe low-level center is partially exposed on the northeastern edge\r\nof the convective canopy due to about 15 kt of easterly shear. A\r\nblend of the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB yields an\r\ninitial intensity estimate of 40 kt. Little change in strength is\r\nexpected during the forecast period. The vertical shear is expected\r\nto decrease a little by day 3, but the cyclone will be moving over\r\nsomewhat cooler SSTs by then. The NHC intensity forecast is close to\r\nthe IVCN intensity consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/09, as Karina is being steered\r\nby a subtropical ridge to the north. This ridge will build westward\r\nduring the next couple of days, followed by an amplification of a\r\nridge well north of the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in\r\nKarina's track bending a little south of due west during the middle\r\nof the forecast period. By day 5, the ridging north of Karina will\r\nweaken as a mid/upper-level trough amplifies off the west coast of\r\nNorth America. This should result in a collapse of the steering\r\ncurrents and a slow and perhaps erratic motion by the end of the\r\nperiod. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous\r\none and is close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 17.8N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 18.1N 123.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 18.2N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 18.1N 127.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 17.8N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 17.2N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 17.0N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 17.0N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014\r\n\r\nKarina continues to be affected by about 15 kt of easterly vertical\r\nwind shear, with the low-level center located just to the northeast\r\nof a burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -80C.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from\r\nSAB.  In addition, a recent ASCAT overpass showed 35-40 kt winds\r\nabout 40 n mi north of the center.  Based on these data, the initial\r\nintensity remains 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 285/9, with Karina continuing to be\r\nsteered by a subtropical ridge to the north.  This ridge will build\r\nwestward during the next couple of days, followed by an\r\namplification of a ridge well north of the Hawaiian Islands.  These\r\ndevelopments should result in Karina turning westward later today\r\nand then turning a little south of due west during the middle of the\r\nforecast period. The steering current are expected to collapse after\r\n72 hours as a mid/upper-level trough likely develops off the west\r\ncoast of North America and other areas of disturbed weather develop\r\neast and west of the cyclone.  During this time, the GFS and\r\nCanadian models forecast a loop back to the east, the ECMWF and\r\nUKMET models forecast a slow westward motion, and the NAVGEM and GFS\r\nensemble mean forecast a slow northward motion.  The official\r\nforecast track compromises between these forecasts by showing a\r\nwestward drift. Overall, the new track is again similar to the old\r\ntrack and near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale models forecast the shear to decrease during the\r\nnext 48 hours or so.  However, Karina will be moving over gradually\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures, and the forecast track keeps\r\nthe center near the 26C isotherm after 48 hours.  In the short\r\nterm, Karina is expected to weaken a little more.  While the\r\nofficial forecast keeps the system as a tropical storm,  an\r\nalternate scenario is shown by the SHIPS and LGEM models, which\r\nforecast it to weaken to a depression.  After 48 hours, the\r\nguidance suggests Karina could re-intensify if it is not absorbed\r\nby one of the nearby disturbances.  The latter part of the official\r\nforecast reflects this by showing modest strengthening.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 18.1N 122.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 18.2N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 18.0N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 17.6N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 16.5N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 16.5N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe center of Karina is located on the northeastern edge of a\r\ncircular area of very deep convection due to moderate easterly\r\nvertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\ncontinue to support an initial intensity of 40 knots. Most of the\r\nglobal guidance as well as the SHIPS model indicate that the shear\r\nwill persist for the next 24 to 36 hours while a portion of the\r\ncirculation is over relatively cooler waters. On this basis, the NHC\r\nforecast indicate some slight weakening during the next day or so.\r\nAfter that time, the shear could relax some and the cyclone\r\nwill likely turn west-southwestward toward warmer waters. This\r\nshould result in some intensification as suggested by the intensity\r\nconsensus. HWRF is the most aggressive model forecasting Karina back\r\nto hurricane status.\r\n\r\nIt appears that the expected amplification of the ridge to the north\r\nof Karina is already materializing, and the cyclone is now moving\r\ntoward the west or 270 degrees at 9 knots. The ridge will continue\r\nto build westward as indicated by global models, and this pattern\r\nwill force the cyclone to move toward the west-southwest for the\r\nnext 3 days or so. By then, the steering currents are expected to\r\ncollapse when several disturbances develop nearby. This will likely\r\ncause Karina to meander for the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod. Track guidance has not change and continues to support\r\nboth the west-southwest track and the decrease in forward speed\r\nindicated by NHC, which in fact, is very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 18.3N 124.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 18.4N 125.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 18.3N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 17.8N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 17.5N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 16.5N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate today, with the\r\nlow-level center now removed from the deep convection due to\r\nmoderate easterly shear. T-numbers have decreased to T2.0 and T2.5\r\non the Dvorak scale, and a recent partial ASCAT pass shows maximum\r\nwinds of 35 knots. On this basis, the intensity has been set at 35\r\nknots. Although Karina has weakened, it most likely will begin to\r\nre-strengthen in about 24 hours when the circulation moves over\r\nwarmer waters and into weaker shear. In fact, the HWRF insists on\r\nbringing Karina back to hurricane status in 3 days. The NHC forecast\r\nis not that aggressive and brings the winds only to 50 knots in\r\nagreement with the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and conventional fixes indicate that the center has been\r\nmoving just south of due west or 260 degrees at 10 knots. The ridge\r\nto the north of Karina is expected to amplify a little more forcing\r\nthe cyclone to move on a west-southwest track for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays. After that time, the steering currents are expected to\r\ncollapse due to the development of several disturbances nearby, and\r\nthat pattern will keep the cyclone meandering for the remainder\r\nof the forecast period. Most of the dynamical track guidance\r\nforecast a sharp but slow turn to the right before Karina arrives at\r\n132 degrees longitude. Given the weak steering flow, the NHC\r\nforecast shows little movement between 3 and 5 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 17.9N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 17.7N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 17.5N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 17.0N 129.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 15.5N 132.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Karina was exposed to the east of the deep\r\nconvection in the last-light visible images, consistent with the\r\nnearly 15 kt of shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS. Overall, the cloud\r\npattern remains relatively unimpressive, with little banding and a\r\ngeneral decrease in the cold convective tops during the past few\r\nhours. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest\r\nDvorak estimate from SAB. Little change in intensity is expected\r\nduring the next 24 hours, but some re-strengthening is forecast\r\nafter that time as SSTs along the forecast track begin to increase a\r\nlittle. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand is near or a bit above the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe latest satellite fixes yield an initial motion estimate of\r\n260/10. Karina will continue moving westward to west-southwestward\r\nfor the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the steering\r\ncurrents weaken as the ridge erodes and the global models show other\r\ntropical cyclones possibly forming east and west of Karina. Little\r\nnet motion is expected after 48 hours, and confidence in the details\r\nof the track forecast beyond that time is lower than normal. The new\r\nNHC track forecast is close to the previous one, but a little faster\r\nin the first 36 to 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 17.8N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 17.5N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 17.1N 129.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 16.6N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 16.0N 132.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Karina is producing a little more deep convection than it\r\nwas earlier this evening, the system has a sheared appearance with\r\nthe low-level center located near the eastern edge of the deep\r\ncloudiness.  A pair of ASCAT passes around 0600 UTC showed maximum\r\nwinds of around 35 kt to the west of the center, therefore, the\r\ninitial intensity is held at that value.  This wind speed estimate\r\nis also in fair agreement with Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT.  Only slight strengthening is forecast as the\r\nenvironmental conditions are not expected to change much during the\r\nnext several days, with the shear predicted to remain moderate and\r\nsea surface temperatures marginal.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nslightly lower than the previous one to be closer to the latest\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nKarina is moving just south of due west at about 9 kt.  A west to\r\nsouthwest motion is forecast during the next 2 to 3 days while the\r\nstorm remains steered by the subtropical ridge to the north of the\r\nsystem.  Beyond that time, the cyclone is likely to stall or move\r\nerratically when the steering currents significantly weaken in\r\nresponse to developing tropical disturbances both to the west\r\nand east of Karina.  Although a considerable amount of spread in\r\nthe models exist, they do agree on this general scenario.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast lies fairly close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 17.9N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 17.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 17.1N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 16.4N 131.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 16.1N 132.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 16.1N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 16.1N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 16.1N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014\r\n\r\nThere has been little change to Karina's convective organization\r\nsince the previous advisory. A large mass of deep convection with\r\ncloud tops to near -80C remains sheared to the west and southwest\r\nof the partially exposed low-level circulation center due to\r\nmoderate easterly vertical wind shear. The intensity was increased\r\nslightly to 40 kt based on ASCAT data that arrived after the\r\nprevious advisory had been issued, which showed reliable 38-39 kt\r\nwind vectors to the west of the low-level center.\r\n\r\nKarina has been moving due west or 270/10 kt over the past 6 hours.\r\nThere is no significant change to previous forecast track or\r\nprognostic reasoning. Karina is expected to gradually make a turn\r\ntoward the west-southwest over the next 24 hours, and then\r\nmaintain that motion accompanied by a decrease in forward speed\r\nthrough 72 hours as a large ridge to the north of the Hawaiian\r\nIsland builds southward to the west of the cyclone. After that, the\r\nlarge disturbance located about 700 nmi east of Karina is expected\r\nto develop and become a very large circulation, more than than\r\ntwice the normal size of a tropical cyclone. That system is\r\nforecast to dominate the steering flow across much of the eastern\r\nNorth Pacific, producing a long fetch of low- to mid-level\r\nsouthwesterly flow that is expected to gradually steer Karina back\r\ntoward the east and northeast on Days 4 and 5. It is possible\r\nthat Karina could stall on Day 3 when steering currents briefly\r\ncollapse. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory\r\ntrack and closely follows the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe GFS-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows only 7 kt of easterly\r\n850-200 mb wind shear currently affecting Karina, an analysis that\r\nappears to be too weak given the large westward displacement of the\r\ndeep convection. In contrast, UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate about\r\n15 kt of easterly mid-level shear is affecting the cyclone, which\r\nlikely better explains the very asymmetric convective cloud pattern.\r\nThe overall shear pattern is not forecast to change much for the\r\nnext 5 days, so little change in strength is expected during that\r\ntime, especially since Karina will be over or near marginal SSTs of\r\n26-26.5C throughout the forecast period. The official intensity\r\nforecast is just an update of the previous advisory, and closely\r\nfollows the ICON intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 18.0N 128.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 17.6N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 16.9N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 16.4N 132.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 16.2N 133.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 16.2N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 16.6N 133.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's convective pattern has continued to wax and wane over the\r\npast 6 hours. Another burst of deep convection with cloud tops to\r\n-80C has developed near and to the west through southwest of the\r\npartially exposed, well-defined low-level circulation center. Recent\r\nobjective intensity analyses from CIMSS AMSU and ADT yield estimates\r\nof 42-44 kt, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass at 1847 UTC indicated\r\nseveral 36-37 kt surface wind vectors northwest and west of the\r\ncenter. Based on a blend of these values, the initial intensity is\r\nheld at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nKarina appears to have made the much expected turn toward the\r\nwest-southwest, and the initial motion is now 255/11 kt. Karina is\r\nexpected to continue moving toward the west-southwest and slow down\r\nconsiderably over the next 72 hours as a broad high pressure system\r\nbuilds to the north and west of the cyclone. Karina could even stall\r\non Day 3 as steering currents collapse. After that, a large\r\ndeveloping disturbance located about 700 n mi east of the cyclone is\r\nforecast by all of the global models to evolve into an unusually\r\nlarge low pressure system that will gradually pull Karina back\r\nto the east-northeast and northeast on Days 4 and 5. The official\r\nforecast track has been shifted farther west, but not as far west\r\nas the consensus model TVCE due to the uncertainly involved in\r\nexactly how much influence and timing that the large disturbance\r\neast of Karina will have on the tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nModerate easterly mid- to upper-level shear is expected to affect\r\nKarina for the next 18 hours or so, which should inhibit any\r\nsignificant intensification. After that, however, the shear is\r\nforecast by the SHIPS model to decrease to less than 10 kt, during\r\nwhich time some intensification could occur while the cyclone\r\nremains over marginal SSTS of at least 26C. By 48 hours and beyond,\r\nthe easterly shear is expected to increase again due to strong\r\nupper-level outflow associated with the aforementioned large\r\ndisturbance to the east of Karina. The increasing shear, coupled\r\nwith decreasing SSTs, should cap any intensification that might have\r\noccurred. The GFDL and HWRF models bring Karina back to hurricane\r\nstrength at around 120 hours, but this seems unlikely due to the\r\ncyclone being over sub-26C SSTs at that time. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and TO the ICON\r\nintensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 17.7N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.3N 130.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 16.7N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 16.3N 133.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 16.3N 134.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 16.4N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 16.7N 135.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 17.1N 134.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over the\r\npast several hours.  The system remains a sheared tropical cyclone,\r\nwith all of the deep convection displaced to the west-southwest of\r\nthe low-level center.  The intensity is kept at 40 kt for this\r\nadvisory, which is only slightly above the most recent Dvorak\r\nestimates and is consistent with earlier scatterometer data.  The\r\neasterly shear over Karina is due to a combination of an\r\nupper-level anticyclone to the north-northeast and the outflow from\r\na developing system to the east.  The global models indicate that\r\nthe anticyclone will shift eastward and weaken, which could\r\nresult in some decrease in shear.  However since Karina will be\r\ntraversing marginal sea surface temperatures during the next\r\nseveral days, only slight strengthening is predicted.  This is the\r\nsame as the previous official wind speed forecast and very close to\r\nthe latest intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe storm continues to move west-southwestward with gradually\r\ndecreasing forward speed, and the initial motion estimate is 255/10\r\nkt.  A weak mid-level ridge to the north of the storm should\r\nmaintain a west-southwestward to westward heading for the next\r\ncouple of days.  However, the interaction with the developing\r\ncyclone to the east and another, weaker, disturbance to the west of\r\nKarina should result in a slowing of the forward motion.  Around\r\nthe end of the forecast period, a broad fetch of west-southwesterly\r\nflow feeding into the larger cyclone to the northeast should cause\r\nKarina to reverse its heading and move northeastward.  The new\r\nofficial track forecast is somewhat farther west of the previous one\r\nat days 2-5, but not as far west as the latest track model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 17.5N 130.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 17.0N 131.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 16.5N 133.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 16.4N 134.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 17.5N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Karina has been pulsing during the\r\nlast several hours and it remains displaced to the southwest of the\r\nlow-level center due to persistent shear.  The initial intensity\r\nremains 40 kt, but this could be a little generous based on the\r\nlatest Dvorak classifications.  The shear is expected to slacken\r\nsome during the next day or two, which could allow the storm to\r\nrestrengthen a little.  However, significant strengthening seems\r\nunlikely since Karina could be affected by some dry air to its west\r\nwhile it remains over marginal sea surface temperatures.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is an update of the previous one and near the\r\nconsensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nKarina is moving west-southwestward at about 10 kt, and this\r\ngeneral motion with a decrease in forward speed is predicted\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  The storm is likely to drift westward or\r\nbecome stationary by the middle to late portion of the week when the\r\nsteering currents collapse.  By the end of the forecast period, the\r\ncyclone is expected to get pulled northeastward when it begins to\r\ninteract with the large depression to its east.  The new official\r\ntrack forecast is essentially an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 17.1N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 16.7N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 16.4N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 16.3N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 16.3N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 16.5N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 17.6N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Karina has not changed much during\r\nthe past 2 or 3 days, and still consists of an area of deep\r\nconvection with the center on the northern edge due to shear. This\r\nwas confirmed by an AMSU pass earlier today. Given that the cloud\r\npattern has not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt.\r\nKarina has the chance to slightly strengthen since the circulation\r\nis moving over warmer waters and into weaker shear. By the end of\r\nthe forecast period, the outflow from larger Tropical Depression\r\n12-E to the northeast should induce stronger shear and prevent\r\nadditional strengthening.\r\n\r\nBest estimate of the initial motion is 255 degrees at 8 kt. Karina\r\nis trapped south of a strong subtropical ridge, and this pattern\r\nwill keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west or to the west\r\nfor the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this portion of the\r\nforecast is high with good guidance agreement. After that time,\r\nKarina's motion will be dominated by the larger-than- normal TD\r\n12-E, which is forecast to pass to the northeast. This should result\r\nin a collapse of the steering flow near Karina and very little\r\nmotion of the cyclone. By the end of the period Karina should begin\r\nto turn slowly to the northeast steered by the southwesterly flow on\r\nthe south side of TD 12-E. This later portion of the forecast is\r\nmuch less certain due to the large guidance spread. On the other\r\nhand, all dynamical models agree on the turn to the northeast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 16.8N 132.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 16.5N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 16.3N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 16.3N 135.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 16.3N 136.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 16.5N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 17.5N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nKarina has made a little bit of comeback this afternoon. Visible\r\nsatellite images indicate that the center is embedded within\r\nthe deep convection and there is a hint of a intermittent eye\r\nfeature. In addition, there is a cyclonically curved convective\r\nband to the the south of the center. The outflow has also become\r\nbetter defined. The latest intensity estimate from TAFB was T3.0,\r\nand given the improvement in the cloud pattern, the initial\r\nintensity has been increased to 50 knots. As mentioned in earlier\r\nforecasts, Karina has the opportunity to strengthen a little more as\r\nthe circulation moves over warmer waters and into weaker shear\r\nduring the next day or so. This is still the case, and it is\r\nindicated in the NHC forecast. By the end of the forecast period,\r\nthe outflow from larger Tropical Depression 12-E located to the\r\nnortheast should induce stronger shear and prevent Karina from\r\nadditional strengthening.\r\n\r\nBest estimate of the initial motion is 245 degrees at 6 kt.\r\nThere has been no changes in the steering flow around Karina. The\r\ncyclone continues to be trapped south of a subtropical ridge, and\r\nthis pattern will keep the cyclone moving slowly south of due west\r\nor to the west for the next 2 to 3 days. The confidence in this\r\nportion of the forecast is high with good guidance agreement.\r\nAfter that time, Karina's motion will be dominated by the\r\nlarger-than-normal TD 12-E, which is forecast to pass to the\r\nnortheast. This should result in a collapse of the steering flow\r\nnear Karina and very little motion of the cyclone. By the end of the\r\nperiod, Karina should begin to turn slowly to the northeast steered\r\nby the southwesterly flow on the south side of TD 12-E. This latter\r\nportion of the forecast is much less certain due to the large\r\nguidance spread.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 16.1N 133.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 16.1N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 16.1N 135.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 16.1N 136.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 16.3N 136.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 16.8N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nKarina has continued to become better organized over the past few\r\nhours.  A convective cloud band wraps about 80 percent around the\r\ncirculation, and the Dvorak data T-number from TAFB is now 3.5 which\r\ncorresponds to an intensity estimate of 55 kt.  The vertical shear\r\nover the storm has decreased and is forecast to stay low for another\r\n24-36 hours.  Upper-level outflow has also increased over the\r\ntropical cyclone.  Therefore, Karina has an opportunity to intensify\r\nsome more and it could become a hurricane tomorrow as indicated by\r\nthe official forecast.  Later in the forecast period, east-\r\nnortheasterly shear is predicted to increase, which should cause\r\ngradual weakening.  The official intensity forecast is close to the\r\nSHIPS model guidance through 36 hours, and close to the intensity\r\nmodel consensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe forward motion continues to slow and is now around 255/7 kt. A\r\nmid-level ridge to the north of Karina should push the tropical\r\ncyclone a little farther west over the next day or two.  However the\r\nwestward steering is likely to end in a couple of days as Karina\r\nbecomes more influenced by the large circulation of Tropical\r\nStorm Lowell passing to its northeast.  By late in the forecast\r\nperiod, a broad area of southwesterly low-level flow associated with\r\nLowell should start drawing Karina toward the northeast.  The\r\nofficial forecast takes the storm farther northeast late in the\r\nperiod than the previous one, but not as much as some of our better\r\ntrack guidance.  The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement\r\nwith latest Florida State University Superensemble prediction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 15.9N 133.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 15.9N 134.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 15.9N 135.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 15.9N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 16.0N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 17.5N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nKarina continues to be a difficult puzzle to solve.  The\r\nstrengthening trend observed on Monday has ceased, and the cyclone\r\nappears to have weakened a bit during the past few hours.  Water\r\nvapor imagery suggests that the outflow from Tropical Storm Lowell\r\nmay be helping to produce southeasterly shear over Karina, and the\r\nlow-level center is now exposed to the east of a small area of deep\r\nconvection.  The initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt based on a\r\nblend of CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, although this could be a\r\ngenerous estimate.\r\n\r\nKarina's sudden weakening has resulted in a significant change to\r\nthe intensity forecast.  The cyclone is expected to remain over\r\nwarm water for much of the forecast period, but the SHIPS\r\ndiagnostics indicate that easterly shear is likely to remain steady\r\nor increase through the next 5 days.  In addition, Karina will\r\nlikely start to ingest drier, more stable air in a couple of days.\r\nThe intensity models no longer show strengthening, and in fact, the\r\nFlorida State Superensemble and HWRF models weaken Karina to a\r\ntropical depression in about 72 hours.  The official forecast holds\r\nKarina steady at 50 kt for 36 hours while the thermodynamics remain\r\nfavorable, followed by steady weakening through the end of the\r\nforecast period.  This solution is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels, as well as the intensity consensus, but weakening could\r\ndefinitely occur sooner than indicated.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave fixes indicate that the initial motion is 255/6 kt.\r\nKarina is forecast to move westward and slow down during the next\r\n36-48 hours when it begins to feel the tug of larger Tropical Storm\r\nLowell to its east.  After 48 hours, Karina should begin moving\r\neast-northeastward and pick up speed within the southern part of\r\nLowell's circulation.  The official forecast is essentially\r\nunchanged during the first 48 hours.  However, the track guidance\r\nhas sped up after 48 hours, and the updated NHC forecast is faster\r\non days 3-5 to be closer in line with the multi-model consensus\r\nTVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 15.7N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 15.7N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 15.7N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 15.7N 136.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 15.6N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 17.0N 133.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 19.0N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Karina has changed very little\r\nduring the past few hours. There is a well-defined convective\r\nband wrapping around the center, but there is some dry air\r\nentraining into the cyclone. The convection is not very deep, and\r\nDvorak T-numbers are on a weakening trend supporting an initial\r\nintensity of 45 knots.  The outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell\r\nlocated to the east will likely induce some moderate shear over\r\nKarina, but should not be strong enough to weaken the cyclone\r\nsignificantly. Karina most likely will experience some fluctuations\r\nin intensity during the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time, as\r\nKarina gradually becomes pulled northeastward by the flow around\r\nLowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the cyclone will likely\r\nbegin to weaken.\r\n\r\nKarina is already slowing down and is moving westward at 4 knots.\r\nAn additional decrease in forward speed is anticipated as the\r\nsteering currents collapse further, and Karina is expected to drift\r\nwestward or even meander for the next 2 to 3 days.  Then, as\r\nLowell passes to the north, the cyclone should turn northeastward\r\nwith increased forward speed around the southwesterly flow\r\nassociated with the large circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast is\r\nvery close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models, which\r\nhas been performing quite well with Karina so far. It is also\r\nsimilar to the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 15.7N 134.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 15.7N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 15.8N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 16.0N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 17.7N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 21.0N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":28,"Date":"2014-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Dvorak T-numbers no longer directly support 45 knots,\r\nvisible satellite images show that Karina still has a vigorous\r\ncirculation. An 1807 UTC ASCAT-B overpass missed the low-level\r\ncenter and the western half of the circulation where stronger\r\nwinds could exist, but one 38-kt surface wind vector was indicated\r\nsoutheast of the center. Assuming that stronger winds could exist\r\nwest of the center, the initial intensity is being kept at 45 knots\r\nuntil we have more solid evidence of weakening.\r\n\r\nThe outflow of large Tropical Storm Lowell located to the east will\r\nlikely induce some moderate shear over Karina, but it should not be\r\nstrong enough to weaken the cyclone significantly. Karina most\r\nlikely will experience some fluctuations in intensity during the\r\nnext 2 to 3 days because of the marginal environment.  After that\r\ntime, as Karina gradually becomes pulled northeastward and northward\r\nby the flow around Lowell, it will encounter cooler waters and the\r\ncyclone will likely weaken.\r\n\r\nKarina is moving westward at 4 knots. The steering currents are\r\nforecast to collapse, and Karina is expected to drift westward or\r\neven meander for the next 2 to 3 days.  Then, as Lowell passes to\r\nthe north, the cyclone should turn northeastward with increased\r\nforward speed within the southwesterly flow associated with the\r\nlarge circulation of Lowell. The NHC forecast follows the trend\r\nof the dynamical guidance, which unanimously brings Karina\r\nnortheastward toward Lowell.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 15.7N 134.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 15.7N 135.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 15.7N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 15.8N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 15.8N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 16.5N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 18.5N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 23.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":29,"Date":"2014-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has redeveloped\r\nnear Karina's center, and convective banding features have improved\r\nduring the past 6 hours now that the cyclone is moving over a ridge\r\nof warmer sea surface temperatures. The result is that intensity\r\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB have increased to a consensus\r\nT3.0/45 kt, so the initial intensity is being held at 45 kt.\r\n\r\nKarina is moving slowly westward or 275/04 kt. There remains no\r\nsignificant change to the previous reasoning. Karina is forecast to\r\nstall and/or make a small loop in 24 to 48 hours when steering\r\ncurrents are forecast to weaken considerably. By 72 hours and\r\nbeyond, the cyclone is expected to come under the influence of\r\nsouthwesterly steering flow generated by the very large circulation\r\nof Tropical Storm Lowell, which is currently located well to the\r\neast of Karina. The NHC model guidance is actually in very good\r\nagreement on the development of this rather complex synoptic flow\r\npattern and eventual interaction between the two tropical cyclones.\r\nThe only significant difference since the previous advisory is that\r\nthe model guidance envelope has shifted well to the east. The\r\nofficial forecast track follows suit and has been shifted slightly\r\nto the east, but not nearly as far east as the consensus model TVCE\r\ndue to the uncertainty in which direction Karina will move after the\r\ncyclone stalls and/or completes a looping motion.\r\n\r\nThe outflow from Tropical Storm Lowell is expected to affect\r\nKarina within the next 12 hours, producing modest easterly to\r\nsoutheasterly vertical wind shear across the cyclone through 72\r\nhours. The result is that little change in intensity is forecast,\r\nalthough there will likely be some small fluctuations in the\r\nintensity during that time. By 72 hours and beyond, the shear is\r\nexpected to steadily increase as Karina moves closer to Tropical\r\nStorm Lowell, which should induce steady weakening. By Day 5,\r\nKarina will be moving over 22C SSTs, causing the system to\r\ndegenerate into a post-tropical remnant low pressure system. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and\r\nclosely follows the consensus intensity model ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 15.9N 135.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 15.9N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 16.0N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 15.8N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 15.6N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 16.7N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 19.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 24.0N 128.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":30,"Date":"2014-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Karina's low-level center is embedded beneath the cold\r\ncirrus canopy, microwave imagery indicates that it is located on\r\nthe northeastern edge of the deep convection.  TAFB and SAB Dvorak\r\nestimates have not changed from six hours ago, and a 0602 UTC\r\nASCAT pass confirmed that maximum winds are about 45 kt.  Moderate\r\neast-northeasterly to easterly shear is expected to continue\r\naffecting Karina during the next several days, and thermodynamic\r\nconditions will gradually become less favorable once the cyclone\r\nbegins gaining some latitude beyond day 3.  The official NHC\r\nintensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous forecast,\r\nholding Karina steady at 45 kt for the next 48 hours and then\r\nshowing weakening to a remnant low by day 5 over significantly\r\ncolder water.  This scenario is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels, as well as the ICON intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nKarina continues to move slowly westward with an initial motion of\r\n270/4 kt.  All of the track models now indicate that Karina will\r\nslow down and turn southward, making a small counterclockwise loop\r\nduring the next 48 hours as it comes under the influence of Tropical\r\nStorm Lowell's larger circulation.  Karina will then backtrack on\r\nits past track, accelerating northeastward and northward between\r\ndays 3 and 5 while it swings around the south and east sides of\r\nLowell.  As mentioned in the previous forecast, the track guidance\r\nhad been shifting eastward in recent cycles, and that trend has\r\ncontinued.  Therefore, the NHC track forecast is again pushed\r\neastward, although it still lies along the left side of the guidance\r\nenvelope near the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 15.9N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 15.9N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 15.5N 136.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 15.2N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 15.3N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 25.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":31,"Date":"2014-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's cloud pattern has become a little better organized with the\r\ncenter embedded within the deep convection. Satellite intensity\r\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB are T3.5 on the Dvorak scale at\r\n1200 UTC. Since that time, deep convection has decreased a little,\r\nand the initial intensity is set at 50 kt instead of the 55 kt\r\nsupported by the Dvorak numbers.\r\n\r\nAs long as Karina remains over warm waters and moderate shear, there\r\nwill be small fluctuations in intensity. Once the cyclone moves away\r\nfrom the deep tropics in 3 days or so, it will encounter cooler\r\nwaters and it will begin to weaken. The NHC forecast follows the\r\nintensity consensus model, which keeps Karina at 50 kt for at least\r\n3 more days.\r\n\r\nAs anticipated, Karina has moved very little and most likely will\r\nmeander or remain nearly stationary for the next 24 hours.  As soon\r\nas Karina begins to feel the influence of Tropical Storm Lowell's\r\nlarger circulation in 36 hours or so, it will begin to drift\r\neastward and then northeastward with an increase in forward speed\r\naround the south and east sides of Lowell. Guidance has not changed\r\nsignificantly, and the NHC forecast is very similar to the previous\r\none, and very close to the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 15.8N 136.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 15.8N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 15.2N 136.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 15.2N 135.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 17.0N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 26.5N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":32,"Date":"2014-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's cloud pattern has continued to become a little better\r\norganized today with a mid-level eye feature in microwave imagery\r\nand increasing convective bands. There are no signs of shear at this\r\ntime since the outflow is fairly symmetric. Based on satellite\r\nestimates of T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB and SAB, the initial\r\nintensity is set at 55 knots. As long as Karina remains over warm\r\nwaters and in a weak shear environment, there is a possibility of\r\nsome strengthening, but it is more likely that the storm will\r\nfluctuate in intensity during the next 24 hours as suggested by most\r\nof the intensity guidance. After that time, gradual weakening should\r\nbegin as the storm moves over cooler waters.\r\n\r\nKarina is embedded in very light steering currents, and consequently\r\nthe storm has barely moved today. Little motion is anticipated\r\nduring the next 24 hours. Karina will then begin to drift eastward,\r\nfollowed by a northeastward motion with a small increase in forward\r\nspeed around the south and east sides of the large circulation of\r\nTropical Storm Lowell. The guidance has been very persistent with\r\nthis scenario, and the NHC forecast follows the consensus of the GFS\r\nand the ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 15.7N 136.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 15.7N 136.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 15.2N 136.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 15.1N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 15.5N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 17.5N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 21.0N 128.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 27.0N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":33,"Date":"2014-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nAfter looking fairly robust on the previous advisory, 25-30 kt of\r\nvertical wind shear has left the convective cloud pattern looking\r\nrather disheveled over the past several hours. A 20/2318 UTC AMSU\r\noverpass indicated that the strong shear had displaced the\r\nmid-level circulation at least 45 nmi southwest of the now fully\r\nexposed low-level center. Satellite intensity estimates from both\r\nTAFB and SAB have decreased, yielding an average intensity estimate\r\nof 50 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory.\r\n\r\nAs expected, the steering currents have collapsed and Karina has\r\nbeen meandering in the same general area for the past 12 hours or\r\nso. Little motion is expected tonight, with a drift to the east or\r\neast-southeast forecast to begin on Thursday. After that, Karina is\r\nexpected to begin moving slowly northeastward as it comes under the\r\ninfluence of the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell located\r\nwell to the east of the cyclone. As the distance between the two\r\nsystems decreases, smaller Karina is expected to accelerate\r\nnortheastward and then northward within the eastern portion of\r\nLowell's circulation, gradually getting drawn closer to the center\r\nof Lowell.  NHC guidance remains in excellent agreement on this\r\ndeveloping track scenario, and the official forecast is similar to\r\nbut a little east of the consensus model TVCE in order to maintain a\r\nreasonable physical distance between the centers of the two tropical\r\ncyclones.\r\n\r\nFluctuations in the amount of Lowell-induced shear that will affect\r\nKarina will also result in fluctuations in the cyclone's intensity\r\nfor the 72 hours while it remains over 26C and warmer SSTs. But\r\noverall, no significant intensity changes are expected for the next\r\n2 to 3 days. After that, however, increasing shear as Karina moves\r\ncloser to Lowell's center, plus sharply decreasing sea-surface\r\ntemperatures, will induce weakening on Days 4 and 5. Karina is\r\nexpected to become a post-tropical remnant low pressure system by 96\r\nhours, but given the rather small size of the cyclone, it is\r\npossible that the system could degenerate into an open trough as it\r\ninteracts with the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 15.9N 136.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 15.7N 136.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 15.5N 135.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 15.6N 135.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 16.3N 134.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 18.3N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 21.4N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z 27.0N 129.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":34,"Date":"2014-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nKarina is being affected by moderate-to-strong vertical wind shear,\r\nwith the low-level center located on the northeastern edge of the\r\ndeep convection.  Subjective and objective T-numbers have decreased\r\nfrom 6 hours ago, and a blend of the T-numbers and CI numbers\r\nsupports bringing the maximum winds down to 45 kt.  Water vapor\r\nimagery shows an expansive area of dry mid-/upper-level air surging\r\nsouthward on the west side of Tropical Storm Lowell toward Karina.\r\nThis flow will likely continue to disrupt Karina's structure during\r\nthe next day or so, and drier air may also begin to infiltrate into\r\nthe cyclone's circulation.  In addition, Karina will be moving over\r\nsub-26C water in about 3 days.  All these factors argue for little\r\nchange in intensity during the next 48 hours, followed by weakening\r\nand degeneration to a remnant low by day 4.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, mainly\r\ndue to the lower initial intensity, and it is fairly close to the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images suggest that Karina has been drifting\r\neast-southeastward, and the initial motion estimate is 110/2 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is likely to drift southeastward and east-southeastward\r\nfor the next 24 hours.  After that time, the distance between\r\nKarina and Lowell will be decreasing, and Karina will respond by\r\naccelerating northeastward and then northward around the east side\r\nof Lowell beyond 48 hours.  The track guidance is in good agreement\r\non this scenario, and no significant changes from the previous NHC\r\nforecast were required on this advisory.  Although a 5-day point is\r\ngiven, Karina will likely be in the process of becoming absorbed by\r\nLowell, and it is possible that a surface center may no longer exist\r\nat that time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 15.6N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 15.3N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 15.1N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 15.6N 134.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 16.5N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 22.5N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z 28.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":35,"Date":"2014-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Karina's appearance on geostationary satellite imagery is\r\nnot very impressive, a recent GPM microwave satellite image showed a\r\npartial eyewall feature.  This indicates that the inner core is well\r\ndefined, and the intensity estimate is increased to 50 kt, which is\r\na little above the latest Dvorak estimates.  It appears that the\r\nvertical shear over the storm has relaxed a little, but Karina is\r\nover marginal sea surface temperatures and the forecast track takes\r\nthe cyclone over cooler waters.  A weakening trend is likely to\r\ncommence in 24 hours or so, as shown by the official wind speed\r\nforecast.  This forecast is a little below the intensity model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nBased on an excellent fix from the aforementioned microwave image,\r\nthe center has been repositioned a bit south of the previously\r\nestimated track.  This yields an initial motion estimate of 180/2\r\nkt.  Karina remains in an environment of weak steering currents at\r\nthis time.  However, as the larger Hurricane Lowell moves northwest,\r\nthe separation distance between Karina and Lowell will be\r\ndecreasing, which will increase the influence of the latter cyclone\r\non the former.  The flow over the southern and southeastern portions\r\nof Lowell's circulation should cause Karina to turn toward the\r\nnortheast with some acceleration over the next few days, and\r\neventually move northward to north-northwestward late in the period.\r\nThe official forecast is a little slower than the dynamical model\r\nconsensus, and similar to the latest Florida State University\r\nSuperensemble track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 15.0N 136.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 14.8N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 15.0N 135.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.6N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 16.4N 134.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1200Z 27.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":36,"Date":"2014-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nKarina has a fairly well-organized appearance on visible satellite\r\nimagery, and microwave images show that a partial eyewall structure\r\nis being maintained.  Based on these factors, the initial intensity\r\nis maintained at 50 kt for this advisory.  This is somewhat above\r\nthe most recent Dvorak estimates.  The storm should more or less\r\nmaintain its intensity for the next 24 hours or so.  Dry mid-level\r\nair near the cyclone is expected to cause a weakening trend to begin\r\ntomorrow and, later in the forecast period, cooler waters should\r\nalso result in weakening.  Karina is expected to degenerate into a\r\nremnant low after 72 hours.  The official wind speed forecast is in\r\nreasonable agreement with the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe center is easy to track in visible imagery and the motion\r\nestimate is 160/3.  The steering of Karina is likely to be\r\ndominated by the larger circulation of Hurricane Lowell, which\r\nshould be passing to the northeast of Karina in a few days.  The\r\nflow over the southern and southeastern portions of Lowell's\r\ncirculation should draw Karina northeastward and, eventually,\r\nnorthward during the forecast period.  The official track forecast\r\nis similar to the latest Florida State University Superensemble\r\nprediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 14.7N 136.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 14.7N 136.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 15.3N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 15.9N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 16.7N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 18.5N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 22.0N 128.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1800Z 26.0N 130.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":37,"Date":"2014-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has continued to develop near the center of Karina,\r\nespecially in the southern semicircle, and the low-level center is\r\nembedded in the middle of the more circular cloud shield. Two\r\nearlier ASCAT passes showed 50 kt and 52 kt peak surface winds to\r\nthe southeast of the center, so the intensity has been bumped up to\r\n55 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 090/02 kt based on microwave\r\nsatellite positions over the past several hours. After nearly three\r\ndays of saying the same thing in our discussions, there isn't much\r\nmore to add. Karina will gradually get pulled eastward and\r\nnortheastward by the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell, as\r\nthe latter cyclone passes to the northeast of Karina in 2-3 days.\r\nThe majority of the NHC track guidance is now indicating a\r\nconsiderably slower forward speed on Days 4 and 5 as Karina weakens\r\nover cold water and becomes more vertically shallow. The official\r\nadvisory track is similar to but a little faster than the consensus\r\nmodel TVCE out of respect for the faster GFS model.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images continue to show a partial eyewall\r\nstructure. The vertical shear is forecast to subside to around 5 kt\r\nduring the next 12 hours, so there is a brief window of opportunity\r\nfor Karina to strengthen. However, the vertical shear is forecast to\r\nincrease again at 24 hours and beyond as the cyclone begins to move\r\nover cooler water. This combination of unfavorable conditions should\r\ninduce gradual weakening, with the Karina becoming a non-convective\r\nremnant low pressure by 96 hours when the cyclone is moving over\r\n22-23C sea-surface temperatures and into a much cooler and drier\r\nairmass. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the intensity\r\nconsensus model ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 14.8N 136.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 15.1N 135.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.7N 135.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 16.4N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 17.3N 132.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 19.0N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 21.5N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z 25.5N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":38,"Date":"2014-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's convective structure has changed little during the past\r\nfew hours.  An 0613 UTC ASCAT-B pass just clipped the western\r\nportion of the cyclone's circulation and showed some reliable 50-kt\r\nbarbs.  Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.\r\n\r\nA 12-hour motion estimate yields 085/4 kt, although satellite\r\nanimation seems to suggest that the cyclone is beginning to be\r\npulled northeastward.  Karina's movement will be at the mercy of\r\nTropical Storms Lowell and Marie through the entire forecast\r\nperiod.  For the first 3-4 days, Karina is forecast to move\r\ngenerally northeastward on the southern side of Lowell.  The big\r\ndifference from previous model cycles is that the guidance no\r\nlonger shows Karina being absorbed by Lowell.  Instead, Karina\r\nslows down when it begins to feel the circulation of Marie.  The\r\ntrack guidance has slowed down and shifted significantly to the\r\nwest by days 4 and 5, and the updated NHC track forecast has been\r\npulled southward at those times, but it is still on the northern\r\nedge of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nKarina's updated track keeps it over waters warmer than 26 degrees\r\nCelsius for another 48 hours or so.  Vertical shear may increase a\r\nlittle, but overall little change in intensity is forecast during\r\nthe next day or two.  Weakening should commence by 48 hours\r\nwhen Karina moves over cooler water and into a drier air mass.\r\nHowever, since the forecast track has been pulled southward, Karina\r\nmay not weaken quite as fast as previously thought, and the updated\r\nNHC forecast keeps Karina as a tropical cyclone through day 4.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 14.8N 135.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 16.2N 134.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 17.6N 132.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 18.5N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 20.5N 129.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 22.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":39,"Date":"2014-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows that the cloud pattern of\r\nKarina has been improving during the past 6 hours, and a banding eye\r\nfeature is becoming apparent in the most recent images.  An ADT\r\nobjective intensity estimate and a Dvorak classification from TAFB\r\nsupport an intensity of 55 kt.  However, based on the forming\r\nbanding eye feature and an emerging small warm spot visible\r\nin the infrared BD-curve enhancement, the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 60 kt.  The official intensity forecast follows the\r\nIVCN intensity model blend, with little change in intensity expected\r\nthrough the next couple of days.  Beyond 48 hours, a weakening trend\r\nshould commence primarily due to the cyclone traversing cooler water\r\nand the intrusion of a stable and dry air mass from the northwest.\r\n\r\nThe current motion is estimated to be 055/3, or northeastward,\r\nwithin the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the larger tropical\r\nstorm Lowell to the north.  The deterministic models indicate that\r\nLowell will continue to influence Karina to move in a northeastward\r\nto east-northeastward fashion through day 3.  At days 4 and 5, a\r\nweakening Lowell is expected to pass to the north and northwest of\r\nKarina while a mid-level ridge builds in behind Lowell from the\r\nsouthwestern U.S.  The westward building ridge is expected to turn\r\nKarina toward the northwest and eventually toward the west by the\r\nend of the period.  This scenario and the official forecast is\r\nbased on the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus), and is close to the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 15.0N 135.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 16.6N 134.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 17.3N 132.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 19.0N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 20.7N 130.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 22.3N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":40,"Date":"2014-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nA symmetric convective ring or eye feature noted in a 1659 UTC SSMIS\r\nmicrowave overpass and a cloud-filled eye in visible images indicate\r\nthat Karina has regained hurricane status. Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates of T4.0/65kt from both TAFB and SAB are the\r\nbasis for raising the initial intensity to 65 kt. Karina is expected\r\nto maintain hurricane strength during the next 12 hours or so before\r\nthe cyclone moves over sub-26C sea surface temperatures and into a\r\nless conducive thermodynamic environment. Weakening is expected to\r\ncontinue through the remainder of the forecast period and Karina\r\nis forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC\r\nforecast is a little below the latest IVCN consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 050/5, or northeastward,\r\nwithin the mid-tropospheric flow of large Tropical Storm Lowell\r\nlocated to the north.  There is little change in the forecast track\r\nfrom the previous advisory.  Karina is expected to move\r\nnortheastward to east-northeastward during the next 48 hours under\r\nthe influence of Lowell's large circulation. Through the remaining\r\nportion of the forecast period, Karina should turn toward the\r\nnorthwest and ultimately toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds\r\nin behind Lowell from the southwestern U.S.  The NHC official\r\nforecast is basically an update from the previous package and is\r\nclose to the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF consensus) and the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 15.5N 135.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":41,"Date":"2014-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nKarina has completed a loop and at 0000 UTC, it was centered at\r\nnearly the same location as it was 3 days ago at the same time.  Its\r\nappearance on satellite has improved during the evening and a small\r\neye-like feature can be seen in visible imagery.  A corresponding\r\nwarm spot in IR imagery has also been intermittently present.  A\r\nblend of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB supports\r\nraising the initial intensity to 70 kt.  The UW-CIMSS ADT, CIRA\r\nSATCON product, and a 2255 AMSU pass all support intensities of at\r\nleast 70 kt.  The recent intensification trend is expected to be\r\nshort-lived since the cyclone is tracking toward cooler waters.\r\nThe GFS and ECMWF suggest that the environment for the next 48\r\nhours will otherwise be not particularly hostile, so only slow\r\nweakening is forecast.  After that, stronger shear and a drier\r\nenvironment should speed up the weakening process, and Karina is\r\nexpected to become a remnant low by 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 045/6.  There is very little\r\nchange to the forecast for the first 48 hours, and Karina is still\r\nexpected to move toward the northeast or east-northeast while\r\ninteracting with the large circulation of Tropical Storm Lowell.\r\nAfter Lowell passes in about 3 days, Karina is expected to turn more\r\ntoward the north.  There is considerably more uncertainty in the\r\nforecast beyond 72 hours.  Some models forecast that Karina will\r\nturn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge builds east of\r\nLowell.  Others forecast that Karina, or its remnants, will move\r\nclose enough to the circulation of Marie to initiate a second\r\nFujiwhara-like interaction, resulting in a more southerly motion.\r\nThe official forecast still shows a westward track, but has been\r\nslowed down and is now closer to splitting these two scenarios.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 134.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 16.8N 134.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 17.6N 132.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 18.2N 131.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 18.7N 129.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 20.0N 128.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 20.7N 130.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":42,"Date":"2014-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nKarina continues to show signs of an intermittent eye in shortwave\r\nand longwave IR imagery.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and\r\nUW-CIMSS are unchanged since the last advisory, and several recent\r\nAMSU passes have indicated an intensity of 70 to 75 kt.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial intensity is held at 70 kt.  No significant\r\nchange to the intensity forecast was made.  Karina continues to\r\nmarch steadily toward cooler SSTs and a subsequently more stable\r\nthermodynamic environment.  After 36 hours, the cyclone should\r\nencounter an increasingly dry mid-level environment and higher\r\nshear, resulting in an increased rate of weakening.  Most of the\r\ndynamical models forecast that the low- and mid-level centers will\r\nbecome decoupled within 96 hours, but that the low-level center\r\nwill persist for a day or two after that.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving toward the northwest at about 7 kt. There\r\nremains a high degree of confidence for the first 48 hours of the\r\ntrack forecast. A general east-northeastward track is still\r\nexpected while Karina interacts with the circulation of Lowell.\r\nAfter Lowell passes to the north, there is a considerable amount of\r\nuncertainty regarding the track of Karina and its remnants.  Not\r\nonly is the model spread very large, but the run-to-run consistency\r\nhas been remarkably poor. For instance, the 00Z and 18Z GFS 120-h\r\nforecast positions differ by over 700 nm.  The members of TVCE\r\ncurrently support three very distinct scenarios.  The GFS shows\r\nKarina wrapping around to the north side of Lowell and moving\r\nrapidly westward. The HWRF and GFDL models show a slower westward\r\nmotion, caused by a mid-level ridge that is forecast to build to the\r\neast of Lowell. Finally, the ECMWF and UKMET forecast that Karina\r\nwill be advected southward by the circulation of Marie. The official\r\nforecast has been shifted slightly northward, in part due to the\r\nextreme shift of the GFS, but remains closest to the middle ground\r\nsolution of the HWRF and GFDL.  If the models begin to converge on a\r\nsingle solution, it may necessitate a larger change to the forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 16.7N 134.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 17.4N 133.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 18.0N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 18.6N 130.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 19.2N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 20.6N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":43,"Date":"2014-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nThe compact hurricane is maintaining its strength this morning.\r\nThe eye of Karina has become a little more distinct during the past\r\nfew hours and cloud tops remain quite cold to the south of the\r\ncenter.  The initial wind speed is held at 70 kt based on a blend\r\nof the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values\r\nfrom UW-CIMSS.  The hurricane will soon cross the 26 C isotherm,\r\nand total precipitable water imagery shows some dry air beginning\r\nto wrap around the circulation.  These environmental conditions\r\ncombined with some increase in shear should cause the weakening\r\nprocess to begin later today or tonight.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis largely an update of the previous one and lies fairly close to\r\nthe intensity model consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nKarina is moving northeastward at about 6 kt in the broad\r\nsouthwesterly flow to the south of much larger but weaker Tropical\r\nStorm Lowell.  A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later\r\ntoday and that general motion should continue for the the next\r\ncouple of days.  Beyond that time, however, the models have\r\ndiffering solutions.  The previous discussion outlined the varying\r\nscenarios of what could drive Karina northward and northwestward as\r\nit interacts with what is left of Lowell, and the possibility that\r\nKarina stalls or is driven further eastward due to its interaction\r\nwith Hurricane Marie.  The models are trending toward the latter\r\nscenario, and the NHC official track forecast shows a slower forward\r\nspeed at days 3-5 to account for that information.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 17.2N 134.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 17.6N 133.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 18.2N 131.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 18.7N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 19.0N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 20.3N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 20.8N 130.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1200Z 21.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":44,"Date":"2014-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nThe eye of Karina has begun to fill during the past few hours, and\r\ndeep convection has decreased slightly on the north side of the\r\ncyclone. A blend of the 1800 UTC Dvorak CI- and T-numbers still\r\nyields an initial wind speed estimate of 70 kt.  Since that time,\r\nthe cloud pattern of the cyclone has begun to deteriorate,\r\nsuggesting that the predicted weakening trend may already be\r\noccurring.  The hurricane is currently crossing the 26 deg C\r\nisotherm and dry air is wrapping around the circulation, as seen in\r\ntotal precipitable water imagery.  The influence of these\r\nunfavorable thermodynamic factors should cause steady weakening to\r\nremnant low status in 3 to 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nagain an update of the previous one and lies close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nKarina is turning toward the right in the broad southwesterly flow\r\nto the south of Lowell, and the latest initial motion estimate is\r\n055/6. The models are coming into better agreement in showing\r\nKarina moving on a general east-northeasterly path with a decrease\r\nin forward speed before being absorbed into the much larger\r\ncirculation of Hurricane Marie in 4 to 5 days.  However, there is\r\nstill some guidance that shows Karina interacting with Lowell,\r\nwhich would result in a west-northwestward motion.  Since most of\r\nthe track guidance now favors the absorption of Karina by Marie, the\r\nNHC track forecast has been adjusted eastward and shows the cyclone\r\nbecoming stationary at days 3 and 4.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 17.3N 133.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 17.7N 132.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 18.3N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 18.6N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 19.0N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Karina","Adv":45,"Date":"2014-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nThe appearance of Karina in visible and infrared satellite imagery\r\nhas continued to deteriorate during the past several hours.  The\r\nhurricane no longer has an eye, and increasing shear is beginning to\r\nrestrict the upper-level outflow in the northeast quadrant of the\r\ncirculation.  Based on the degraded satellite appearance and a\r\ndecrease in satellite intensity estimates, the intensity has been\r\nlowered to 65 kt.  No significant changes were made to the intensity\r\nforecast.  Steady weakening is still expected for the next few days,\r\nparticularly in light of the fact that Karina recently passed over\r\nthe 25 deg SST isotherm.  The dynamical models are in good agreement\r\nthat only a low-level circulation will remain in about 72 hours.\r\n\r\nKarina continues to move toward the northeast at about 7 kt, and\r\nthis general motion should continue for the next day or two while\r\nthe cyclone remains embedded within a large area of southwesterly\r\nflow to the south of Lowell.  After 48 hours, the spread in the\r\ntrack guidance remains large.  Most of the dynamical models have\r\nconverged this cycle on the general solution that Karina will move\r\nclose enough to the circulation of Marie to be advected southward\r\nbefore being absorbed or sheared.  However, the extent and timing of\r\nthis interaction remains highly uncertain.  Since the track\r\nguidance has been exceptionally inconsistent from run to run over\r\nthe last several forecast cycles, the official forecast has been\r\nconservatively nudged only slightly toward the southeast at days 3\r\nand 4.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 17.8N 132.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 18.0N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 18.2N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 18.5N 128.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 18.3N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":46,"Date":"2014-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nKarina has the classic appearance of a sheared tropical cyclone,\r\nwith a strong IR brightness temperature gradient on the east side\r\nof the storm.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and\r\nUW-CIMSS have continued to decrease and the initial intensity has\r\nsubsequently been lowered to 60 kt.  Karina is turning toward the\r\neast and the initial motion is estimated to be 65/6, though the\r\nmotion is a little more uncertain for this forecast since the\r\nlow-level center has become obscured.  A general eastward motion is\r\nstill expected for the next 36 to 48 hours hours. After that, the\r\ndynamical models have finally come into complete agreement that\r\nKarina will turn more toward the south once it begins to interact\r\nwith, and circumnavigate, the large circulation of Hurricane Marie.\r\nShortly after this interaction begins, Karina will be assimilated or\r\ncompletely strained out by the larger vortex. The official forecast\r\nhas been shifted south, but still shows fairly slow movement at days\r\n3 and 4 since the model spread remains large.\r\n\r\nGiven the decreasing SSTs and increasing vertical wind shear that\r\ndominate the environment around Karina, continued weakening appears\r\nto be inevitable.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement that\r\nKarina will become a remnant low within the next 72 hours.  No major\r\nchanges were made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the\r\nintensity consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 17.9N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 18.0N 129.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 18.0N 128.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":47,"Date":"2014-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's deep convection has expanded some this morning, and the\r\nstrong temperature gradient in the infrared imagery on the east side\r\nof the cyclone has weakened.  Both would be indicative of the large\r\nvertical shear diminishing some, consistent with the CIMSS analysis\r\nof 5-10 kt shear.  The GFS-based SHIPS shear, on the other hand, is\r\ndiagnosed as being about 20 kt.  The intensity estimates widely\r\nrange from 45-75 kt, depending on whether a shear or embedded center\r\npattern is used in the Dvorak technique. The initial intensity is\r\nlowered slightly to 55 kt, but this estimate has more than the usual\r\nuncertainty.  Even if the shear has subsided some currently, this\r\nshould pick up more shortly as the outflow from major hurricane\r\nMarie affects Karina.  The combination of strong vertical shear,\r\nmarginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to at least a\r\ngradual - if not quick - weakening of the tropical cyclone.  The\r\nintensity forecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and\r\nHWRF models and is quite similar to that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT pass from late last night indicated tropical-storm-force\r\nwinds extending out about 60 nm on the eastern semi-circle.  The\r\ninitial size is assessed the same as that previously, and a gradual\r\nreduction in tropical-storm-force wind radii is anticipated as the\r\ncyclone weakens.\r\n\r\nKarina is being steered east-northeastward at 8 kt around the large\r\ncirculation of post-tropical Lowell to its north-northeast.  The\r\nabsence of microwave imagery over Karina and the lack of visible\r\nimagery before sunrise makes the current position and motion\r\nsomewhat unclear. The steering influence of Lowell will diminish in\r\nabout a day as the distance between the systems increases, and\r\nKarina should respond by slowing down and turning gradually to the\r\neast-southeast.  In about two days, Karina's track will mainly be\r\ninfluenced by the approaching very large and strong Marie.  Karina\r\nshould be accelerated along toward the east until it becomes\r\nabsorbed within Marie in about three to four days.  The forecast\r\ntrack is based upon a blend of the GFS, GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models\r\nand is slightly faster than that issued in the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 18.0N 131.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 18.0N 130.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 17.8N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 17.5N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 16.9N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":48,"Date":"2014-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nStrong vertical shear being induced by an upper-level high centered\r\nnortheast of Karina continues to weaken the tropical storm.  Deep\r\nconvection continues in association with the cyclone, though it is\r\noccurring only over the western semi-circle and it has decreased in\r\nareal extent.  In fact, in the last few visible images, the\r\nlow-level center is popping out from underneath the thinning cirrus\r\novercast.  A \"bulls-eye\" ASCAT-B hit at 1802Z indicated a peak\r\nsurface wind between 40 and 45 kt, so the initial intensity is set\r\nat 45 kt.  Strong vertical shear should continue to afflict Karina,\r\nas the outflow from major hurricane Marie will soon begin to reach\r\nthe tropical storm.  The combination of high vertical shear,\r\nmarginally warm SSTs, and fairly dry air should lead to a gradual\r\nweakening of the tropical cyclone.  Karina should become a remnant\r\nlow in about two days. However, the strong shear and mediocre\r\nthermodynamics may lead to remnant low status earlier. The intensity\r\nforecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM statistical\r\nmodels, and is a bit lower than that from the previous advisory due\r\nto the weakened initial condition of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe aforementioned ASCAT-B pass confirmed the rather small\r\ntropical-storm-force wind radii of Karina.  A gradual reduction in\r\nthe cyclone's size is anticipated as the cyclone winds down.\r\n\r\nKarina is being steered eastward at 8 kt around the large\r\ncirculation of post-tropical cyclone Lowell to its north-northeast.\r\nThe center of the system is now well known, due to the ASCAT-B pass\r\nand the visible appearance of the low-level center. The steering\r\ninfluence of Lowell will diminish by tomorrow as the distance\r\nbetween the systems increases, and Karina should respond by slowing\r\ndown and turning gradually to the east-southeast.  In about 36\r\nhours, Karina's track will mainly be influenced by the approaching\r\nlarge and powerful Marie. Karina or its remnant low should be\r\naccelerated toward the east until it becomes absorbed within Marie\r\nbetween two and three days.  The forecast track is based upon the\r\nTVCN multi-model track consensus technique and is slightly faster\r\nthan that issued in the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 17.8N 130.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 17.7N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 17.5N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 17.2N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 16.5N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":49,"Date":"2014-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nKarina's cloud pattern continues to rapidly degrade, with the\r\nremaining deep convection located about 90 miles west-northwest\r\nof the exposed center of circulation.  The initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 40 kt based on a blend of the subjective and objective\r\nsatellite intensity estimates and an earlier UW-CIMSS AMSU-A\r\nintensity estimation.  Moderate southeasterly vertical shear, as a\r\nresult of Marie's large upper-level anticyclone, should result in\r\ncontinued weakening to a depression in 12 hours.  The cyclone is\r\nforecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 24 hours and\r\nultimately dissipate or become absorbed by major hurricane Marie in\r\n3 days or less, as indicated by the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 095/8, within the\r\ndiminishing low- to mid westerly flow produced by post-tropical\r\ncyclone Lowell to the north. Karina should turn toward the\r\neast-southeast around the 24 hour period as the cyclone is steered\r\naround the southwest periphery of approaching Hurricane Marie.  The\r\nofficial NHC forecast track is nudged southward beyond the 24 hour\r\nperiod, following the trend in the GFEX and the TVCE guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 17.5N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 17.4N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 17.2N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 15.9N 125.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karina","Adv":50,"Date":"2014-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nA small area of convection has developed just to the southwest\r\nof the center, probably a product of the diurnal maximum cycle.\r\nHowever, the deep convection that was earlier displaced well to the\r\nwest-northwest has dissipated.  Dvorak satellite intensity\r\nestimates continue to decrease and a blend of the T- and CI-numbers\r\nsuggest an initial intensity of 35 kt.  Moderate east-southeasterly\r\nvertical shear produced by Marie's large upper-level anticyclone to\r\nthe east, is expected to further weaken Karina.  Consequently, the\r\ncyclone should continue to spin down and become a post-tropical\r\nremnant low within the next 24 hours.  The intensity forecast\r\ncorresponds with the large-scale models and the SHIPS/LGEM\r\nstatistical-dynamical guidance with dissipation or absorption\r\nforecast in 2-3 days.\r\n\r\nShortwave-infrared satellite images show that the best estimate of\r\ninitial motion is 110/9, and this general motion around the western\r\nto southwestern periphery of Marie is expected through the entire\r\nperiod before dissipation.  The official NHC forecast track is\r\nan update of the previous package and is based on a compromise of\r\nthe GFEX and TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 17.2N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 17.1N 127.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 16.7N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 15.6N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":51,"Date":"2014-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nThe upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing\r\nKarina, as only a small puff of deep convection remains in the\r\nsouthwestern quadrant of the cyclone.  Dvorak current intensity\r\nnumbers continue to drop, and a blend of the values from the ADT,\r\nSAB, and TAFB indicate that Karina has weakened to a 30-kt tropical\r\ndepression.  Despite the system heading toward warmer waters,\r\nhostile vertical shear should cause Karina to become a remnant low\r\nin about 12 hours.  Thereafter, Karina's remnant low should become\r\nabsorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about\r\ntwo days.  The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the\r\nHWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models and is the same as that from the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nWith Karina's very limited deep convection, finding the center this\r\nmorning is quite easy in the shortwave infrared imagery.  Karina\r\nis moving toward the east-southeast at 8 kt.  The cyclone will be\r\nadvected around the large circulation of Marie until absorption of\r\nKarina occurs.  The track forecast - based upon a blend of the TVCE\r\nmulti-model consensus and the previous advisory - is just south\r\nof the previous official prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 17.1N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":52,"Date":"2014-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nThe upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing\r\nKarina, though a persistent small area of deep convection continues\r\nin the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. A direct hit from\r\nthe ASCAT-B scatterometer at 1742Z indicates peak winds of about 30\r\nkt, which is the initial intensity of Karina. Despite the system\r\nheading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear and dry air\r\nshould cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours.\r\nKarina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation\r\nof the much larger Marie in about 36 hours.  The intensity forecast\r\nis based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models and\r\nis the same as that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe visible imagery and the ASCAT-B pass indicate that Karina is\r\nmoving toward the east at 5 kt.  This motion is somewhat unexpected\r\nas all of the guidance suggested an east-southeast to southeast\r\nheading today.  The cyclone will be advected around the large\r\ncirculation of Marie until Karina is absorbed.  The track forecast,\r\nbased upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the\r\nprevious advisory, is north of the previous official prediction\r\nbecause of the more poleward initial position than expected earlier.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 17.2N 127.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":53,"Date":"2014-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nThe upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie continues to strongly\r\nshear Karina, though a persistent area of deep convection continues\r\nin the western quadrant of the cyclone.  The initial intensity\r\nremains 30 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  Due to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate\r\ninto a remnant low in about 12 hours, and then be absorbed into\r\nthe much larger Marie in 24-36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 095/4.  A general east-southeastward motion\r\nwith some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone\r\nis absorbed.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 17.2N 127.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 16.9N 126.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 16.4N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":54,"Date":"2014-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nKarina continues to produce sufficient organized convection to be\r\nconsidered a tropical cyclone despite ongoing easterly vertical\r\nwind shear caused by the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie.\r\nThe initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with a partial\r\nASCAT pass and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due\r\nto the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a\r\nremnant low soon, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in\r\n24 hours or so.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 100/3.  The cyclone is embedded in westerly\r\nflow feeding into Marie, and a general east-southeastward motion\r\nwith some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone\r\nis absorbed.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 16.6N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":55,"Date":"2014-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nKarina has weakened overnight and has lost any associated deep\r\nconvection.  Although deep convection could re-develop today,\r\nincreasing easterly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane\r\nMarie should make it difficult for any new convective growth to\r\npersist.  Within 24 hours, the cyclone is expected to degenerate\r\ninto a trough well south of Marie.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is slowly southeastward or 135/02.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to orbit around the southern portion of the\r\nlarge circulation of Hurricane Marie during the next 12 to 24 hours\r\nuntil absorption.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 16.6N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.2N 126.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karina","Adv":56,"Date":"2014-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nAfter a brief convection hiatus, a small band of thunderstorms has\r\nredeveloped in the southwestern quadrant. As a result, tropical\r\ndepression status and a 25-kt intensity are being maintained for\r\nthis advisory. Although the easterly shear induced by the large\r\nupper-level outflow pattern of Hurricane Marie located well to the\r\nnortheast of Karina should act to suppress the development of any\r\npersistent deep convection after 12 hours, the cyclone could still\r\nproduce intermittent convective bursts until the system opens up\r\ninto a trough by Thursday.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is south-southeastward or 150/04 kt\r\nbased on a combination of conventional and microwave satellite\r\nfixes. The small circulation of Karina is expected to be advected\r\nsoutheastward and eastward within the southern semicircle of\r\nHurricane Marie over the next 24-36 hours as the the latter cyclone\r\ncontinues to lift out to the northwest. The only change to the\r\nprevious advisory track has been the addition of points at 24 and\r\n36 hours due to some of the models still depicting Karina as a small\r\nbut closed remnant low at those times periods.\r\n\r\nKarina is now the seventh-longest-lasting tropical cyclone in the\r\neastern North Pacific basin during the satellite era.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.2N 127.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 15.8N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 16.0N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 16.7N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  28/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Karina","Adv":57,"Date":"2014-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP112014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nKarina hasn't been producing a significant mass of deep convection\r\nfor 12-18 hours, and the last few visible images of the day suggest\r\nthat the circulation is already becoming stretched due to its\r\nproximity to Hurricane Marie.  Therefore, Karina is being declared\r\na remnant low, and this is the last advisory.  The official\r\nforecast shows the low opening up into a trough by 36 hours, but\r\nthis could occur earlier.\r\n\r\nKarina has turned southeastward, or 135/4 kt.  The remnant low will\r\nturn eastward and east-northeastward during the next day as it moves\r\nwithin the southern part of Marie's circulation.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 15.9N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 15.7N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 16.3N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 17 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images indicate that the large area of low\r\npressure located several hundred miles southwest of Mexico has\r\nacquired a well-defined center of circulation along with enough\r\norganized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone.  The\r\ninitial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement with a 28-kt ASCAT\r\npass from 1754 UTC and a more recent 30 kt estimate from TAFB.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions would seem to favor intensification due to\r\nwarm waters ahead of the depression during the next few days and\r\nrelatively low shear.  The biggest negative factor is the initial\r\nstructure of the cyclone, with a large radius of maximum wind and\r\noverall large sprawling circulation envelope.  Tropical cyclones\r\nwith this type of structure tend to intensify only gradually, and\r\nthis is reflected in the NHC wind speed prediction below.  The\r\nmodel guidance is also in relatively good agreement with the\r\nNHC forecast, with only the SHIPS model showing the depression\r\nreaching hurricane strength.  The system should begin to weaken in a\r\nfew days when it moves over much colder waters, although it could\r\nspin down more slowly than average due to its large size and a\r\nmid-latitude trough interaction.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of initial motion is 275/7.  The subtropical\r\nridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to remain for the next\r\nday or so, causing the depression to take a westward, then\r\nwest-northwestward, course.  However, an unusually deep trough for\r\nmid-August is forecast to dig just offshore of the southwestern\r\nUnited States, which will likely steer the tropical cyclone\r\nnorthward in two or three days, followed by a turn toward the\r\nnorthwest at long range as a result of a weakness left by the\r\ntrough.   Model guidance is in poor agreement at days 4 and 5 due to\r\nvarying predicted strengths of the trough, with the ECMWF taking\r\nthe cyclone significantly farther to the north of the rest of the\r\nmodels.  Since the ECMWF ensemble mean is very close to the model\r\nconsensus, for now the ECMWF operational solution is thought of as\r\nan outlier, and the NHC forecast is near the consensus at all\r\nforecast times.\r\n\r\nIt is worth noting that while the official forecast is well\r\noffshore of the southwestern United States, model guidance does\r\nsuggest a surge of moisture is possible in that region by Thursday.\r\nPlease monitor products issued by your local National Weather\r\nService office for more details on a possible heavy rain threat.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 16.1N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 16.3N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 17.6N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 18.4N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 19.8N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 22.4N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 26.5N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed significantly\r\nduring the last several hours.  The cyclone has a large\r\ncirculation, with its associated wind field extending several\r\nhundred miles across.  Curved banding is mainly confined to the\r\nwestern half of the system due to about 15 kt of east-northeasterly\r\nshear.  The latest Dvorak classifications continue to support an\r\ninitial wind speed estimate of 30 kt.   Some strengthening is\r\nlikely during the next few days while the cyclone remains over warm\r\nwater, within a moist air mass, and in an environment of moderate\r\nshear.  The system is expected to move over cooler water and into a\r\nmore stable atmosphere by the end of the week, and that should\r\ncause the cyclone to lose strength.  The weakening process over\r\ncold water could be slower than normal as large cyclones like this\r\none typically take longer to spin down.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 8 kt on the south side\r\nof a subtropical ridge.  This ridge is expected to shift eastward\r\nand weaken while a trough deepens over California.  This pattern\r\nchange should cause the tropical cyclone to make a gradual turn\r\ntoward the north during the next 2 to 3 days.  Beyond that time, a\r\nslight left turn is predicted as the trough lifts out.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is a little to the left and slower than the previous\r\none to come into better agreement with the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nIt is worth noting that while the official forecast is well\r\noffshore of the southwestern United States, model guidance does\r\nshow a surge of moisture partly associated with this system\r\nextending into that region late Wednesday and Thursday.  Please\r\nmonitor products issued by your local National Weather Service\r\noffice for more details on a possible heavy rain threat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 16.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 16.4N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 17.0N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 17.7N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 18.4N 120.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 19.7N 120.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 22.2N 122.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 25.5N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nThe unusually large depression, at least 800 nmi in diameter, has\r\nchanged little since the previous advisory. A 1047 UTC SSMI\r\nmicrowave overpass indicated that the depression has a well-defined\r\nbut fully exposed low-level circulation center, with a smaller\r\nsecondary circulation located about 120 nmi east of the main center.\r\nDeep convection has been unable to develop and persist near the main\r\nlow-level center, possibly due to the aforementioned secondary swirl\r\nand modest east-northeasterly mid- to upper-level shear undercutting\r\nthe otherwise favorable outflow pattern. A blend of the TAFB, SAB,\r\nand ADT satellite intensity estimates supports maintaining the\r\ninitial intensity at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nRecent passive microwave fix data suggest that the depression has\r\nturned toward the west-northwest and is now moving 290/07 kt. The\r\ncyclone is expected to turn northwestward later today as the\r\ndepression moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer\r\nridge located over the southwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico. A\r\nmid-latitude trough/low currently digging south-southeastward along\r\nthe U.S. west coast is expected to erode the ridge on Tuesday and\r\nWednesday, allowing the cyclone to move more northward. However, the\r\ntrough is forecast to shift eastward by late Wednesday, which will\r\nallow the ridge to build back in to the north of the cyclone and\r\nforcing it back on a northwesterly track toward colder water through\r\nDays 4 and 5. The new forecast track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory track, and lies in the middle of the NHC guidance envelope\r\nand close to the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe large circulation and associated radius of maximum winds, plus\r\nmodest easterly shear, are expected to hinder the intensification\r\nprocess for the next 72 hours or so despite the favorable outflow\r\nregime. After that, the system is forecast to move over sub-26C and\r\nprogressively cooler waters, which should induce slow weakening.\r\nThe intensity forecast closely follows the ICON consensus model\r\nthrough 72 hours, but is a little above ICON after that due to the\r\nlarge cyclone requiring more time than normal to spin down.\r\n\r\nAlthough the cyclone is forecast to remain well offshore of the\r\nsouthwestern United States, a northward surge of moisture partly\r\nassociated with this system could move into that region by late\r\nWednesday and Thursday.  Please monitor products issued by your\r\nlocal National Weather Service office for more details on a possible\r\nheavy rainfall threat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 16.7N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 17.1N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 17.7N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 18.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 18.9N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 20.4N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 22.8N 122.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nThe sprawling depression has been moving slowly west-northwestward\r\nor 285/05 kt over the past 12 hours. The large cyclone is expected\r\nto move slowly northwestward and then northward around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next\r\n72 hours or so. An unseasonably strong mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough dropping south-southeastward along the U.S. west coast,\r\nwhich is expected to induce the northward motion by weakening the\r\nridge, is forecast by most of the NHC models to shift eastward into\r\nthe southwestern U.S. by Thursday. This will allow the ridge to\r\nbuild back in to the north of the system, turning the cyclone back\r\nto a northwesterly and west-northwesterly track after day 4. The new\r\nforecast track is similar to the previous advisory track through 72\r\nhours, but was shifted westward after that time closer to the\r\nconsensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nSubjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are a\r\nconsensus T2.0/30 kt. Some of the objective satellite analyses,\r\nhowever, suggest that the cyclone could be a little higher.  The\r\nsprawling nature of the depression and moderate easterly shear of\r\n15-18 kt are expected to result in only slow strengthening for the\r\nnext 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move over\r\nsub-26C SSTs, which should induce a slow weakening trend.  The\r\nintensity forecast is just an update of the previous advisory and\r\nclosely follows the ICON consensus model.\r\n\r\nA northward surge of moisture into the southwestern United States,\r\npartly caused by the eastern portion of the depression's large\r\ncirculation, is still forecast by most of the global models to occur\r\nby late Wednesday and Thursday.  Please monitor products issued by\r\nyour local National Weather Service office for more details on a\r\npossible heavy rainfall threat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 16.6N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 17.6N 119.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 18.2N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 18.9N 120.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 20.6N 121.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 23.0N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 25.3N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 18 2014\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has become slightly better organized over the past\r\nseveral hours, although the center remains on the northeastern side\r\nof a large area of deep convection.  Dvorak estimates have risen to\r\n35 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed is raised\r\nto that value.  Lowell has a couple of days to intensify further\r\nwhile it remains over warm waters with moderate easterly shear.\r\nOnly gradual strengthening is anticipated due to the large size of\r\nthe system and its large radius of maximum winds.  In a few days,\r\nthe storm should traverse cooler waters and begin to slowly weaken.\r\nModel guidance is tightly clustered, and the new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast\r\nand the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe storm has turned a little more to the right and is now moving\r\n295/6.  Lowell is expected to move slowly northwestward and then\r\nnorthward over the next couple of days as it moves into a weakness\r\nin the subtropical ridge caused by an unseasonably strong deep-layer\r\ntrough across the U.S. west coast.  Little change was made to the\r\nprevious NHC forecast in the first 48 hours with model guidance in\r\nexcellent agreement.  The trough should pass the storm by late\r\nWednesday and then the subtropical ridge is expected to\r\nrestrengthen, forcing Lowell to turn to the northwest at an\r\nincreasing forward speed after day 3.  Similar to the last forecast\r\ncycle, the guidance has shifted westward at longer range, and the\r\nNHC track prediction is moved in that direction.\r\n\r\nA northward surge of moisture into the southwestern United States,\r\npartly caused by the eastern portion of the cyclone's large\r\ncirculation, is still forecast by most of the global models to occur\r\nby late Wednesday and Thursday.  Please monitor products issued by\r\nyour local National Weather Service office for more details on a\r\npossible heavy rainfall threat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 17.0N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 17.4N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 18.0N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 18.6N 120.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 19.3N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 21.0N 121.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 23.4N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 25.5N 127.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nLowell is on a strengthening trend.  The cloud pattern of the storm\r\nhas become better organized during the last several hours with the\r\nassociated banding features now beginning to wrap around the\r\ncenter. ASCAT overpasses around 0500 UTC showed maximum reliable\r\nwinds in the 40-45 kt range and a large radius of maximum winds of\r\nabout 80 n mi.  The initial wind speed is set at 45 kt, which is a\r\nlittle higher than the latest Dvorak classifications.  Lowell is\r\nexpected to remain in an environment of moderate shear, high\r\nmoisture, and over relatively warm water for another couple of\r\ndays. These conditions should allow for some additional\r\nstrengthening.  Beyond that time, Lowell will be moving over cooler\r\nwater and into a stable air mass, which should cause the system to\r\nweaken.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the\r\nprevious one and in good agreement with the model consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward, 295 degrees, at 6\r\nkt steered by a ridge to its northeast.  A gradual turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest is expected by tonight when a trough deepens over\r\nthe southwestern United States.  This trough is expected to lift out\r\non Thursday, allowing for some ridging to become re-established to\r\nthe north of Lowell.  This pattern change should cause the system to\r\nbend to the left at days 4 and 5.  The NHC track forecast is fairly\r\nclose to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nA northward surge of moisture over the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula and the southwestern United States, partly associated with\r\nthe eastern portion of the cyclone's large circulation, is still\r\nforecast by most of the global models to occur late Wednesday and\r\nThursday.  Please monitor products issued by your local National\r\nWeather Service office for more details on a possible heavy rainfall\r\nthreat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 17.3N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 17.7N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 18.3N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 18.9N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 19.5N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 21.6N 123.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 24.0N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 26.2N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nThe structure of Lowell has not changed much over the past few\r\nhours, with most of the deep convection located south and southeast\r\nof the center. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the\r\nearlier ASCAT pass, which is also in agreement with the latest\r\nDvorak classification from TAFB. Some strengthening is forecast in\r\nthe short term, as Lowell will be in an environment of moderate\r\nvertical shear and over warm waters. After that time, Lowell will\r\nbe moving over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable\r\nairmass, which should result in steady weakening to remnant low\r\nstatus by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest\r\nIVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThere is a fair bit of spread in the satellite fixes, which is not\r\nsurprising given the sprawling structure of the circulation. The\r\ninitial motion estimate of 300/06 is based on a blend of the fixes\r\nand continuity from the previous advisory. The track forecast\r\nreasoning remains unchanged. The subtropical ridge currently\r\nsteering Lowell will weaken as a shortwave trough digs southward\r\nalong the California coast in the next 24 to 36 hours. After that\r\ntime, some ridging rebuilds to the north, which should turn a\r\nweakening Lowell back toward the west-northwest by the end of the\r\nperiod. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand close to the TVCE consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 17.7N 119.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 18.2N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 18.8N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 19.4N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 20.1N 121.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N 124.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 25.0N 127.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 26.5N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nA recent ASCAT-B pass over Lowell around 1800 UTC confirmed that the\r\ncyclone still has a large wind field, with 34-kt winds extended out\r\nmore than 100 nautical miles in all quadrants. ASCAT showed some 40\r\nkt winds east of the center, and assuming a bit of a low bias, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory. Lowell will\r\nremain in a moderate shear environment for the next day or so while\r\nstill over SSTs above 27C, which could support a little\r\nstrengthening in short term, followed by little change through 48\r\nhours. After that time, gradual weakening is expected as Lowell will\r\nmove over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable airmass,\r\nand should become a remnant low by 5 days. In general the intensity\r\nguidance has trended lower this cycle, and so has the official\r\nforecast, which is close to the IVCN consensus.\r\n\r\nThe ASCAT pass and visible satellite imagery yield a little more\r\ncertainty with the center position and initial motion estimate of\r\n310/07. Lowell is expected to move slowly northwestward to north-\r\nnorthwestward over the next 48 hours while a shortwave trough\r\ndigs southward along the California coast and weakens the\r\nsubtropical ridge. As the trough moves eastward, some ridging will\r\nrebuild to the north, which should result in the weakening cyclone\r\naccelerating west-northwestward by the end of the period. The new\r\nNHC track is once similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 18.4N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 18.8N 120.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 19.3N 121.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 20.0N 121.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 27.5N 131.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 19 2014\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the organization of Lowell since\r\nthe last advisory, with multiple curved convective bands present\r\nmainly in the southwestern semicircle.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB remain 45 kt, and that is also the\r\ninitial intensity. The cirrus outflow is good to excellent in all\r\ndirections.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 315/6.  Lowell is expected to move slowly\r\nnorthwestward during the next 48 hours while a mid/upper-level\r\nshortwave trough digs southward along the California coast and\r\nweakens the subtropical ridge.  The trough should subsequently move\r\neastward allowing some ridging to rebuild to the north of the\r\nstorm. This is expected to cause Lowell to accelerate toward the\r\nwest-northwest by the end of the period.  The new forecast track is\r\nan update of the previous forecast and lies near the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.  It should be noted that Lowell and Karina are\r\nlikely to be close enough to interact by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  At this time, it appears that the smaller Karina should\r\nhave only a minor impact on the track of the larger Lowell.\r\n\r\nLowell is expected to remain in a light/moderate vertical wind\r\nshear environment for the next 4 days or so.  For the first 48\r\nhours, the forecast track keeps the cyclone over sea surface\r\ntemperatures of 26C-27C.  After that, the temperatures along the\r\ntrack are expected to decrease to near 22C by 120 hours.  Based\r\non these factors, the new intensity forecast is the same as the\r\nprevious advisory through 48 hours, then shows a slightly faster\r\nweakening thereafter.  The latter part of the intensity forecast is\r\na little below the intensity consensus and is in best agreement\r\nwith the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 18.7N 120.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 19.1N 121.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 19.6N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 21.5N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 24.0N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 26.0N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 28.0N 131.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nThe large tropical storm is maintaining its strength tonight.\r\nCurved convective bands remain well organized on the south side\r\nof the circulation, but deep convection is thin to the north of the\r\ncenter.  The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, in agreement with\r\nthe Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Lowell is currently over\r\n27 C waters, and in an atmosphere of fairly low shear and high\r\nmoisture.  Since the storm is expected to remain in these favorable\r\nconditions for another 36 hours, some strengthening is forecast.\r\nBeyond that time, however, Lowell will be moving over waters cooler\r\nthan 26 C and into a drier and more stable air mass.  These\r\nenvironmental conditions should cause the cyclone to gradually lose\r\nstrength.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and now\r\ncalls for Lowell to weaken to a remnant low by 96 hours.\r\n\r\nLowell has wobbled to the west recently, but a 12-h initial motion\r\nestimate is northwestward at about 4 kt.  The track forecast\r\nreasoning is unchanged from the previous advisories.  A mid- to\r\nupper-level low over southern California has produced a substantial\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge and should cause Lowell to move\r\nslowly northwestward to north-northwestward during the next day or\r\nso.  The upper low is expected to move northeastward and weaken\r\nlate Thursday or Friday, allowing the subtropical ridge to build to\r\nthe north of the storm.  This pattern change should cause Lowell to\r\nspeed up and gradually turn west-northwestward.  The track guidance\r\nhas shifted a little to the west this cycle, and the NHC forecast\r\nis adjusted slightly in that direction.\r\n\r\nA pair of altimeter passes around 0400 UTC provided excellent sea\r\nheight data for Lowell; therefore, there is high confidence in the\r\n12-ft sea radii for this advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 18.7N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 19.1N 121.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 20.5N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 24.0N 126.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 26.0N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Lowell has not changed much during the\r\npast few hours, with curved convective bands to the south and west\r\nof the center but little deep convection in the northern semicircle.\r\nThe initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement with the latest\r\nTAFB Dvorak estimate. Some strengthening is still possible in the\r\nnext day or so while the cyclone remains over marginal SSTs and in\r\nan in an environment of low to moderate shear. After that time, the\r\ncyclone will move over progressively cooler waters, which should\r\nresult in gradual weakening to a remnant low by day 4. The NHC\r\nforecast is close to the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/04, as Lowell continues moving\r\nslowly northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by\r\na mid/upper-level low over southern California. The upper low\r\nis forecast to fill and move eastward after 24 hours, but Lowell\r\nwill maintain a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed\r\nthrough day 3 as the rebuilding mid-level ridge to the north moves\r\nwestward. A weakening Lowell will then be steered toward the\r\nwest-northwest by an expansive low-level ridge over the north\r\nPacific. Overall, the track model guidance remains in good agreement\r\non this scenario. The new NHC track is similar to the previous one\r\nthrough 72 hours and has been adjusted a little to the left after\r\nthat time, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 19.1N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 19.5N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 20.2N 122.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 21.1N 123.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 24.5N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 26.0N 130.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1200Z 27.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nLowell continues to feature a large circulation center with a\r\nconvective band that wraps most of the way around the circulation.\r\nThe latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates are T3.5/55 kt, and that is\r\nthe initial intensity for this advisory. A little additional\r\nintensification is possible in the next 12 to 24 hours before the\r\ncyclone begins to move over cooler waters, and the NHC forecast\r\nreflects this possibility. After that time, a gradual spin down is\r\nforecast as the cyclone encounters increasingly hostile\r\nthermodynamic conditions. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the\r\nlatest IVCN consensus and shows Lowell becoming a remnant low by 4\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/4, as Lowell is moving slowly\r\nnorthwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by\r\na mid/upper-level low over southern California. The track forecast\r\nreasoning remains unchanged, with the cyclone expected to gain some\r\nforward speed after 12 hours while the trough lifts out and some\r\nridging rebuilds to the east. As Lowell weakens, the cyclone will\r\nturn west-northwestward as it comes under the influence of a low-\r\nlevel ridge over the north Pacific. Overall, the track model\r\nguidance remains in good agreement on this scenario. The new NHC\r\ntrack is generally an update of the previous forecast and is close\r\nto a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 19.4N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 19.8N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 20.6N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 21.6N 123.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 22.8N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 24.9N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 26.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1800Z 27.5N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 20 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery shows that Lowell has formed a ragged eye with a\r\ndiameter of about 90 n mi, with conventional satellite imagery\r\ncontinuing to show a complex of convective bands wrapped around the\r\neye.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt,\r\nand there was a recent CIMSS AMSU estimate of 64 kt.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 55 kt, although this could be a little\r\nconservative.  The cirrus outflow remains good to excellent in all\r\ndirections.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 320/3.  Water vapor imagery shows a\r\nmid/upper-level trough extending from a low over southern California\r\nsouth-southwestward into the Pacific.  This trough has weakened the\r\nsubtropical ridge north of Lowell and left the cyclone in an area of\r\nweak steering currents.  After 12 hours, the ridge is forecast to\r\nre-build as the trough moves eastward.  This should allow Lowell to\r\nmove somewhat faster toward the northwest.  Later in the forecast\r\nperiod, a weakening Lowell should turn west-northwestward as it\r\ncomes under the influence of a low-level ridge over the north\r\nPacific.  There is no significant change to the guidance since the\r\nlast advisory, so the new forecast track lies close to the previous\r\ntrack and in the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nA little strengthening is possible before Lowell crosses the 26C\r\nisotherm in about 24 hours, and there is a chance Lowell could\r\nbriefly become a hurricane during this time.  Thereafter, the\r\ncyclone should gradually weaken as it encounters colder water along\r\nthe forecast track.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the\r\nprevious forecast, and it is in best agreement with the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 19.6N 121.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 21.0N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 23.2N 125.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z 28.0N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nLowell continues to exhibit a rather large, but ragged eye in\r\nmicrowave and geostationary satellite imagery. The latest Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates are 55 kt from SAB and 65 kt from TAFB.  A\r\ncouple of recent ASCAT passes shows a large area of 50 to 55 kt\r\nwinds.  Based on a blend of the satellite estimates and the ASCAT\r\ndata the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt.  Although not\r\nexplicitly shown in the official forecast, Lowell could become a\r\nhurricane during the next 6 to 12 hours while it remains over 26\r\ndegree Celsius water and in a low-shear environment. After that\r\ntime, the shear is expected to remain low, but the cyclone will be\r\nmoving over progressively cooler waters and into a more stable air\r\nmass that should cause weakening. Given the large size of Lowell's\r\nwind field, the rate of weakening is likely to be slower than the\r\ntypical spin down of eastern Pacific tropical cyclones that move\r\nover cool water.  In fact, Lowell is likely to become a\r\nconvective-free post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in\r\na few days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/3.  A mid- to upper-level trough\r\nextending southwestward from southern California will weaken and\r\nmove eastward today.  This will allow the subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth and east of Lowell to rebuild, which will result in a slightly\r\nfaster northwestward motion during the next several days.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement during the first 2 to 3 days, and the\r\nNHC track is near the middle of the tightly clustered model envelope\r\nduring that time. Later in the period the spread of the models\r\nincreases, but for now the NHC track will remain near the model\r\nconsensus at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 19.7N 121.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 20.3N 122.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 21.3N 123.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 22.3N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 23.4N 126.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 25.3N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 27.0N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z 28.3N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lowell","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective ring surrounding the large ragged eye of Lowell has\r\nclosed off over the past few hours, and the eye has warmed a little.\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 65 kt based on the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, making Lowell the seventh hurricane of\r\nthe eastern North Pacific season. Little change in intensity is\r\nexpected in the next 12 hours, but Lowell should begin to slowly\r\nweaken after that time as it moves over progressively cooler waters\r\nand into a drier and more stable airmass. Since Lowell is such a\r\nlarge cyclone, it will likely take longer than average to spin\r\ndown. The NHC forecast shows Lowell becoming a post-tropical cyclone\r\nwith gale-force winds in 3 days and weakening to a remnant low\r\nafterward.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 315/03. As a mid/upper-level\r\ntrough over southern California weakens and moves eastward, a\r\nridge will rebuild to the north and east of Lowell. This should\r\nresult in a faster northwestward motion for the next 3 days,\r\nfollowed by a turn back toward the west-northwest as the cyclone\r\nbecomes a shallower system steered by the low-level ridge to the\r\nnorth. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous\r\none, and is very close to the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 20.0N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 20.7N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 21.7N 124.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 23.8N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 25.5N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 27.3N 132.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1200Z 28.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lowell","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nThe structure of Lowell continues to feature a large eye, however\r\nthe convective banding is a little more ragged than it was 6 hours\r\nago. The initial intensity remains 65 kt based on the latest TAFB\r\nand SAB Dvorak classifications. Lowell will be moving across the 26C\r\nisotherm in the next few hours, and gradual weakening should begin\r\nas the cyclone moves over cooler waters and into a more stable\r\nairmass. Since Lowell is such a large cyclone, it will likely take\r\nlonger than average to spin down. The NHC forecast shows Lowell\r\nbecoming a post-tropical cyclone with gale-force winds in 3 days and\r\nweakening to a remnant low afterward.\r\n\r\nLowell jogged a little to the right over the past few hours, but\r\nseems to have resumed a slow northwestward motion of 315/03. The\r\ntrack forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Lowell should move a\r\nlittle faster toward the northwest as a ridge rebuilds to the east\r\nand north of the cyclone. Late in the period a shallower Lowell\r\nshould be steered more toward the west-northwest by the\r\nlow-level ridge to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a\r\nlittle to the right of the previous one through 72 hours to account\r\nfor the initial position, but is otherwise an update of the\r\nprevious NHC track. The official forecast also lies very close to\r\na blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 20.3N 122.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 21.3N 123.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 22.3N 124.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 23.4N 126.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 24.5N 127.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 26.2N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 28.0N 133.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1800Z 29.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nLowell as now weakening as about half of the circulation is over\r\nsea surface temperatures of 26C or colder.  While microwave imagery\r\ncontinues to show a 75 n mi wide eye, the eyewall convection has\r\nwarmed and become asymmetric.  Satellite intensity estimates are now\r\n55 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB.  The initial intensity is\r\ntherefore decreased to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe storm is now moving 325/5.  The track forecast reasoning remains\r\nunchanged, as Lowell should move a little faster toward the\r\nnorthwest due to a ridge rebuilding to the east and north of the\r\ncyclone.  Late in the period a shallower Lowell should be steered\r\nmore toward the west-northwest by the low-level ridge to the north.\r\nThere is no significant change to the track guidance since the last\r\nadvisory, and the new forecast track lies close to the previous\r\ntrack and near the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nLowell is expected to remain in a light shear environment for the\r\nnext few days, with the intensity being controlled by decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous forecast and calls for Lowell\r\nto become a remnant low in about 72 hours.  It is possible that the\r\nassociated convection could dissipate earlier than currently\r\nforecast, with Lowell briefly becoming a gale-force post-tropical\r\nlow.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 20.9N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 21.7N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 23.9N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 25.0N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 26.5N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 28.5N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z 30.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nLowell continues to exhibit a large ragged eye-like feature in\r\nsatellite imagery, however the convection surrounding it has\r\ncontinued to warm and decrease in coverage overnight. The initial\r\nwind speed has been reduced to 55 kt, which is a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak T- and current intensity numbers.  Lowell will be moving over\r\nprogressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable\r\nenvironment during the next several days.  This should lead to\r\ngradual weakening, and Lowell is expected to become a gale-force\r\npost-tropical cyclone in a couple of days.  The cyclone should\r\ncontinue to spin down after that time.\r\n\r\nThe latest satellite fixes indicate that Lowell is moving a little\r\nfaster toward the northwest or 320/7 kt.  The storm should continue\r\nmoving northwestward around the western portion of a building\r\nmid-level ridge during the next couple of days.  After that\r\ntime, the weaker and more shallow post-tropical cyclone is expected\r\nto turn west-northwestward to the south of a low-level ridge.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and\r\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 21.5N 123.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 22.3N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 23.5N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 24.6N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 25.4N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 26.7N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 28.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0600Z 30.3N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to gradually decrease around the large\r\nragged eye-like feature of Lowell. The initial intensity has been\r\nlowered to 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and\r\ncurrent intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Lowell should\r\ncontinue to gradually weaken as it moves over cooler waters during\r\nthe forecast period, and the cyclone should become post-tropical by\r\n48 hours, and a remnant low by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 315/09. Lowell should continue moving\r\ngenerally northwestward during the next 48 hours as a mid-level\r\nridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening\r\ncyclone should turn more west-northwestward as it comes under the\r\ninfluence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one and is close to the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 22.1N 124.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 23.1N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 24.3N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 25.1N 127.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 25.9N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 27.2N 131.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 29.1N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1200Z 31.0N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nConvection continues to gradually wane around the large circulation\r\nof Lowell. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of\r\nthe latest Dvorak Final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB. The cyclone is now over waters around 25C and will be\r\nmoving over waters of 22-23C by 36 hours. This should results in\r\nLowell becomes a post-tropical cyclone by that time, followed by\r\nweakening to a remnant low in about 2 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 310/08. Lowell should continue moving\r\ngenerally northwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level\r\nridge to the east builds westward. After that time, the weakening\r\ncyclone is forecast to turn toward the west-northwest as it comes\r\nunder the influence of a low-level ridge to the north. The new NHC\r\nforecast is a little to the left of the previous NHC track to\r\naccount for the initial position and it close to a consensus of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 22.4N 124.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 23.3N 125.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 24.4N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 25.2N 128.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 25.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 27.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 29.0N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Lowell continues to decrease as the\r\ncirculation moves over decreasing sea surface temperatures, with\r\nthe surviving convection now in a band over the eastern semicircle.\r\nThe initial intensity is reduced to 45 kt based on a blend of\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Lowell is\r\nforecast to degenerate to a remnant low with the remaining\r\nconvection dissipating in about 36 hours.  However, since the sea\r\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track are 22-24 deg C,\r\nthis could occur anytime between now and then.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 305/7. Lowell should continue moving generally\r\nnorthwestward during the next 36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the\r\neast builds westward. After that time, the weakening cyclone is\r\nforecast to turn toward the west-northwest while it comes under the\r\ninfluence of a low-level ridge to the north.  The track guidance\r\nbetween 48-120 hours has shifted a little to the left since the last\r\nadvisory. The new forecast track is also nudged to the left, but\r\nlies a little to the right of the model consensus and the center of\r\nthe guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 22.9N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 23.7N 126.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 24.6N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 25.4N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 25.9N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 27.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 29.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z 31.0N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Lowell has continued to wane overnight\r\nwith only a small convective band noted well north of the center in\r\nthe most recent microwave image.  Recent ASCAT data supports an\r\ninitial wind speed of 40 kt.  Lowell should continue to gradually\r\nweaken during the next several days while it moves over colder\r\nwater and into a drier and more stable airmass.  The convection is\r\nlikely to dissipate later today, and Lowell is expected to become a\r\nremnant low within 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt.  The cyclone is forecast\r\nto continue moving northwestward today, but should turn west-\r\nnorthwestward in 24 to 36 hours when it comes under the influence\r\nof a low-level ridge to the north.  There is very large spread in\r\nthe track guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF taking the remnant\r\nlow northwestward, while most the other models show a westward or\r\nwest-southwestward track.  Since the majority of the guidance and\r\nthe TVCE consensus has shifted to the left, the NHC track at 72\r\nhours and beyond has been adjusted southward, but it still remains\r\nnorth of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 23.4N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 24.1N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 25.0N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 25.6N 129.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 26.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 27.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 28.5N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0600Z 30.0N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nLowell has been devoid of deep convection since around 1000 UTC. If\r\ndeep convection does not regenerate, which seems unlikely given that\r\nthe cyclone is moving over SSTs around 23C, Lowell could become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone by tonight. The initial intensity of 35 kt is\r\nbased on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The cyclone should\r\ngradually spin down during the next few days as it remains over cool\r\nSSTs and in a stable airmass.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 310/7 kt. Lowell is expected to\r\nturn west-northwestward tonight and continue moving generally\r\nwest-northwestward through the period under the influence of a\r\nlow-level ridge to the north. There continues to be a large spread\r\nin the track model guidance after 48 hours, with the ECMWF showing\r\nmore poleward motion at days 4 and 5 while the GFS and GEFS ensemble\r\nmean show a more westward track. The new NHC track forecast is\r\nbetween the two camps and a little to the left of the previous\r\nadvisory, trending toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 23.7N 126.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 24.4N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 25.1N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 25.4N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 25.8N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 27.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 28.5N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1200Z 30.0N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lowell","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nLowell is well on its way to becoming a post-tropical cyclone.\r\nThe storm has lacked significant deep convection for nearly 12\r\nhours and, if this trend continues, Lowell will likely be declared a\r\npost-tropical cyclone tonight.  The initial wind speed remains\r\n35 kt for this advisory based on the latest Dvorak CI number from\r\nTAFB.  The weakening system is currently over 23 C waters and in a\r\nstable air mass.  These unfavorable conditions should cause Lowell\r\nto degenerate into a remnant low soon.  The post-tropical cyclone is\r\nexpected to persist for several days while it gradually spins down.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt, steered by a\r\nlow-level ridge to its north.  A slight turn toward the west-\r\nnorthwest is expected tomorrow, and that general motion with an\r\nincrease in forward speed is predicted through the remainder of the\r\nforecast period.  There remains a considerable spread in the\r\nguidance due to model differences in forecasting the strength of\r\nthe low-level north of Lowell.  The GFS shows a more westward\r\ntrack while the ECMWF has a more northwestward motion. The NHC track\r\nforecast lies between these scenarios, and is close to the multi-\r\nmodel consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 24.0N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 24.5N 127.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 24.9N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 25.3N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 25.7N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 26.6N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 28.0N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1800Z 29.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Lowell","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP122014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LOWELL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nWhile the convection associated with Lowell is not totally gone,\r\nit is no longer organized enough spatially or temporally for the\r\nsystem to be considered a tropical cyclone.  Thus, Lowell has\r\ndegenerated into a remnant low.  The low is expected to persist\r\nthrough the forecast period with a continued slow weakening and a\r\ngenerally west-northwestward track.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non this system. For additional information on the remnant low please\r\nsee High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...\r\nunder AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 24.7N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 25.1N 128.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 25.4N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 25.7N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 26.0N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 27.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 28.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/0000Z 30.0N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 21 2014\r\n\r\nCORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER TO ADVISORY NUMBER 1\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite imagery, along with\r\nscatterometer surface wind data, indicate that the large low\r\npressure system located a few hundred miles south-southeast of\r\nAcapulco, Mexico, has become better organized during the past\r\nseveral hours. Curved bands of deep convection have developed near\r\nthe well-defined center, and the system now meets the criteria of a\r\ntropical cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a\r\nsatellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB, which is\r\nsupported by winds of 31 kt and 30 kt noted in two earlier ASCAT\r\noverpasses. Upper-level outflow is good in all quadrants and has\r\nbeen expanding.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate of 295/12 kt is based on microwave fix\r\npositions over the past 9 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly\r\nclustered and in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving\r\nwest-northwestward and remaining well offshore of the coast of\r\nsouthern Mexico throughout the forecast period.  This is due to a\r\nstrong subtropical ridge anchored over the southern U.S. and\r\nnorthern Mexico. The NHC track forecast closely follows the\r\nconsensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is expected to remain in very favorable thermodynamic\r\nand oceanic environments that will be conducive for development. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is fairly robust, but not nearly as\r\naggressive as the SHIPS model, which brings the system to category\r\n4 strength in 96 hours. The NHC forecast more closely follows the\r\nintensity consensus model ICON, making the cyclone a hurricane in\r\n48 hours and brings it to near major hurricane status by Day 5.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 12.4N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 13.1N 100.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 13.9N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 14.7N 105.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 15.3N 106.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 16.9N 109.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 20.9N 117.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nASCAT passes at 0338 UTC and 0430 UTC indicated that the cyclone\r\nwas producing winds of 35 kt in a small area to the north of the\r\ncenter.  Since that time, the convective pattern has become\r\nsignificantly better organized, and it is estimated that the system\r\nis now a 40-kt tropical storm.  Earlier microwave data indicated\r\nthat Marie has a well-defined low-level ring, which can often be a\r\nprecursor to rapid intensification if environmental conditions are\r\nfavorable.  With waters near 30 degrees Celsius, high levels of\r\natmospheric moisture, and favorable upper-level diffluence, it\r\nappears that RI is a definite possibility, and Marie could become a\r\nhurricane in about 24 hours.  Environmental conditions are\r\nexpected to remain conducive for strengthening for much of the\r\nforecast period, and in fact, the global models indicate significant\r\ndeepening of the cyclone through about day 4 before Marie reaches\r\ncooler waters.  The statistical-dynamical models are also\r\nincredibly aggressive, with the SHIPS model making Marie a category\r\n4 hurricane in 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is roughly\r\nbetween the SHIPS and LGEM models, which are the highest of the\r\nguidance.  This is higher than the previous forecast, and it now\r\nexplicitly shows Marie becoming a major hurricane later in the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nMarie's initial motion is 290/16 kt.  A mid-level high is centered\r\nnear the northern Gulf of Mexico coast with a ridge extending\r\nwestward into northern Mexico.  The ridge is expected to build\r\nwestward over the Pacific waters during the next few days, and this\r\npattern should keep Marie on a west-northwestward motion for much of\r\nthe forecast period.  The model guidance is tightly clustered, and\r\nthe NHC track forecast was only shifted slightly westward on this\r\nadvisory to follow the overall model trend.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that the global models show Marie becoming a\r\nlarge cyclone in a few days.  The forecast wind radii have been\r\nexpanded, but additional increases may be required in future\r\nadvisories.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 12.8N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 13.2N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 14.0N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 14.7N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 15.4N 108.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 19.0N 115.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 21.5N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nMarie continues to become better organized, with abundant deep\r\nconvection and banding features in all quadrants.  Additionally,\r\nwater vapor imagery shows that the upper-level outflow is becoming\r\nincreasingly well defined.  The current intensity estimate is set at\r\n45 kt in general agreement with objective Dvorak estimates from\r\nUW/CIMSS.  Since the tropical cyclone will be moving through an\r\nenvironment of low shear and very warm waters for the next several\r\ndays, continued strengthening seems inevitable.  Marie should become\r\na hurricane within 24 hours and will likely attain at least Category\r\n3 status during the forecast period.  This is suggested even by the\r\nglobal models such as the GFS, which predicts that Marie will deepen\r\nbelow 950 mb in a few days.  The official wind speed forecast, which\r\ncould be conservative, is based on a blend of the objective\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving west-northwestward or 290/15 kt.  The\r\nsteering/track forecast scenario appears to be straightforward at\r\nthis time.  Over the next several days, Marie should move along the\r\nsouthern periphery of a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge that will\r\nbe building westward from northern Mexico.  The dynamical track\r\nforecast models are tightly clustered, and the official forecast is\r\nvery close to the model consensus.  This is essentially an update of\r\nthe previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 13.1N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 13.6N 103.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 14.4N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 15.2N 107.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 15.9N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 17.5N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 19.5N 117.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 21.5N 121.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nMarie continues to intensify.  Satellite images show a well-\r\norganized cloud pattern, with considerable deep convection and\r\nnumerous rain bands surrounding the center.  The current intensity\r\nestimate is set at 50 kt, which is based on a blend of subjective\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, ADT values from UW/CIMSS, and\r\ndata from a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses.  The tropical cyclone\r\nwill be moving over very warm waters of almost 30 deg C and vertical\r\nshear is forecast to remain low throughout the period. Some of the\r\nintensity guidance is very aggressive in strengthening Marie.  In\r\nparticular the SHIPS model, which shows strengthening to Category 4\r\nstatus in 48 hours, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index, which\r\nshows a 59 percent chance of a 35-kt increase in winds over the next\r\n24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS\r\nguidance through 48 hours, and is a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS\r\nmodels thereafter.\r\n\r\nMarie continues its west-northwestward trek and the motion estimate\r\nis 285/12, which is close to the climatological mean for the basin.\r\nThe track forecast and forecast reasoning are basically unchanged.\r\nMarie should move along the southern periphery of a mid-\r\ntropospheric ridge that is forecast to build westward from northern\r\nMexico through the forecast period.  The official track forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one and remains close to the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe forecast wind radii at days 2-3 have been increased, based on\r\nthe global models, which depict a large hurricane by that time\r\nframe.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 13.4N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 13.8N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 14.4N 107.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 14.9N 109.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 15.8N 110.7W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 17.5N 114.0W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 20.0N 118.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014\r\n\r\nMarie appears to be on the verge of intensifying rapidly.  The\r\ncyclone is in the process of developing a central dense overcast,\r\nconsisting of very cold-topped convection.  Numerous outer bands are\r\nalso present.  The upper-level outflow over the storm is well\r\nestablished, suggesting an expanding warm core.  Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, with\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0.  A blend of these data are used to\r\nset the initial intensity to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nMarie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with the\r\ninitial motion estimated to be 285/13.  A continued west-\r\nnorthwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected\r\nthrough 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side\r\nof a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the eastern\r\nUnited States into the eastern Pacific.  A bend in the track toward\r\nthe northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches the\r\nwestern end of the aforementioned ridge.  The track guidance is\r\ngenerally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecast\r\nis little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift in\r\nthe guidance to the north this cycle.\r\n\r\nThe stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next day\r\nor two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environment\r\nfor strengthening.  The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea,\r\nindicating a 54 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  The official forecast is at or above the\r\nupper end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours.  Given the\r\nvery favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the\r\nintensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term.  Then\r\nagain, it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamics\r\nsuch as eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie from\r\nrealizing its full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marie\r\nover sharply lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening,\r\neven though the shear should be relatively low.  The intensity\r\nforecast late in the period remains above the nearly all the\r\nguidance but is closest to SHIPS model output.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 13.7N 104.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nMarie continues to quickly strengthen.  Enhanced BD-curve infrared\r\nimagery and a few microwave passes show significant improvement of\r\nthe inner core and outer rain band features.  Embedded center\r\ncloud tops continue to cool and are now around -82 degrees C.  The\r\ninitial intensity is raised to 65 kt and is based on a compromise of\r\nDvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and an\r\nobjective ADT current intensity of 72 kt.  The water is warm and the\r\nshear is low, and this ripe environment is expected to remain\r\nconducive for further significant strengthening.  In fact, the SHIPS\r\ncontinues to show Marie intensifying to a Category 4 hurricane in 48\r\nhours and the SHIPS RI Index indicates that the chance of a 35 kt\r\nincrease in winds during the next 24 hours is 4 times the sample\r\nmean.  The intensity forecast follows the SHIPS through day 3, then\r\nsides with the IVCN consensus model as the cyclone traverses sub-26C\r\nsea surface temperatures.\r\n\r\nMarie continues toward the west-northwest and the initial motion is\r\nestimated to be 285/11, similar to the climatological mean\r\nfor the eastern Pacific basin.  Marie is forecast to move along the\r\nsouthern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward over\r\nthe extreme eastern Pacific from the southwestern United States and\r\nnorthern Mexico.  The official NHC forecast is close to the previous\r\npackage and is hedged toward the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 14.0N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 14.6N 107.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 15.3N 109.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 16.6N 113.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 18.9N 116.6W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 21.3N 120.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 24.1N 125.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nMarie has been rapidly intensifying with a 30-kt increase since\r\nyesterday at this time.  Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting\r\nin association with the hurricane, though an eye has yet to make an\r\nappearance.  Dvorak CI numbers are increasing, and a blend\r\nof the ADT, SAB, and TAFB values indicate an intensity of 75 kt.\r\nContinued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly\r\nuncertain.  The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are\r\nlikely to continue being very conducive for the next three days.\r\nThe GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about\r\n10-15 kt of deep-layer shear currently and gradually increasing over\r\nnext three days.  However, the CIMSS shear analysis suggests\r\nsubstantially less shear now, which is more consistent with the\r\nsymmetric appearance to the convection and the observed rapid\r\nintensification.  The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS\r\nstatistical model through three days, which is higher than any of\r\nthe other guidance.  By days four and five, Marie should be passing\r\nover cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere.  The forecast\r\nintensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus.\r\nThis official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided\r\nin the previous advisory from 36 hours onward.  Unfortunately, no\r\nnew size information has been available and the wind radii analysis\r\nand prediction remain about the same.\r\n\r\nThe initial position is somewhat uncertain, due to no microwave\r\npasses recently and no eye being seen yet.  However, the available\r\nfixes suggest a somewhat farther northward position than earlier\r\nanalyzed.  The current motion is west-northwest at 9 kt, slightly\r\nslower than previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a\r\ndeep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the\r\nmain steering factor for the entire forecast time.  The track\r\nguidance is in very close agreement all the way to five days and\r\nsuggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track.  The\r\nofficial track prediction is just slightly northward of the previous\r\nadvisory because of the initial shift in position, but is otherwise\r\nquite close in longitude.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 14.6N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 15.2N 107.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 15.9N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 17.3N 113.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 19.7N 117.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 22.0N 121.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nMarie's rapid intensification has slowed some this afternoon.\r\nSymmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the\r\nhurricane and a ragged eye is just now starting to make an\r\nappearance in the visible imagery.  Dvorak CI numbers from ADT,\r\nSAB, and TAFB have not changed over the last six hours, but with an\r\neye evident the intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt. Continued\r\nintensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain.  The\r\nSSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue\r\nbeing very conducive for the next three days. However, the GFS-based\r\nvertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 15 kt of\r\ndeep-layer shear now and for the next three days.  The forecast\r\nintensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three\r\ndays, which is higher than any of the other guidance.  It is of note\r\nthat the GFDL dynamical model barely maintains Marie as a hurricane\r\nfor the next three days, though this is considered an unlikely\r\nscenario at this time. By days four and five, Marie should be\r\npassing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere.  The\r\nforecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN\r\nconsensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that\r\nprovided in the previous advisory from 48 hours onward.\r\n\r\nTRMM and SSMIS microwave imagery provided evidence of the developing\r\neye feature and allowed for a more accurate determination of the\r\ninitial position and motion. The current motion is west-northwest at\r\n10 kt, about the same as previously.  Marie is primarily being\r\nsteered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should\r\ncontinue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast\r\nperiod.  The track guidance remains in very close agreement through\r\nday 5 and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast\r\ntrack. The official track prediction at days four and five is\r\nshifted slightly westward compared to the previous advisory and is\r\nbased upon the multi-model TVCN consensus technique.\r\n\r\nIt is of note that small-sized Hurricane Karina is now expected by\r\nmost models to be absorbed into the circulation of Marie in about\r\nfour days.  While this process will lead to the dissipation of\r\nKarina, it should have little effect on the larger-sized Marie.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 15.1N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 15.6N 109.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 16.1N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 16.8N 113.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 17.8N 114.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 20.6N 118.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014\r\n\r\nMarie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last\r\nadvisory.  Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central\r\ndense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible\r\nsatellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye.  Several\r\nwell-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie.\r\nA 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the\r\norganization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a\r\nclosed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity\r\nestimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate\r\nfrom TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the\r\nupper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in\r\norganization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that\r\ntime.\r\n\r\nMarie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12,\r\nwith the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie\r\nshould be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive\r\nmid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the\r\neastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the\r\nhurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary\r\nslow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly\r\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period.  The track guidance\r\nremains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track\r\nwas shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue\r\nof Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion.\r\n\r\nWhile large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive\r\nfor additional intensification, there is some disagreement with\r\nregard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently\r\naffecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt\r\nof northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently\r\nindicated around 15 kt.  Regardless, the inner core structure\r\nof the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should\r\nallow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless\r\nits intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement.\r\nInterestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little\r\nadditional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in\r\nresponse to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is\r\nforecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along\r\nMarie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of\r\nthe cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the\r\nintensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but\r\napproaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 18.8N 115.6W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 21.4N 119.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 24.0N 124.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 26.7N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nMarie continues to rapidly intensify.  The eye of the hurricane has\r\nbecome much more distinct in recent satellite images, and very cold\r\ncloud tops surround the center.  The inner core convective pattern\r\nis also quite symmetric, and a large curved band exists well to the\r\nsouth of the center.  The initial wind speed estimate is 115 kt, a\r\ncategory 4 hurricane, which is based on a Dvorak classification of\r\nT6.0 from SAB.\r\n\r\nThe large scale conditions of low wind shear, high moisture, and\r\nwarm sea surface temperatures should favor additional strengthening\r\nduring the next day or so.  However, it should be noted that with\r\nmajor hurricanes like Marie, intensity fluctuations are common due\r\nto internal dynamics, or eyewall replacement cycles, that are not\r\neasily forecast.  The hurricane is expected to begin weakening in a\r\ncouple of days when there will likely be some decrease in moisture\r\nand sea surface temperatures gradually lower.  A more rapid\r\nweakening is predicted toward the end of the forecast period when\r\nMarie is forecast to move over water temperatures lower than 26\r\ndegrees Celsius.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the\r\nprevious one, given the observed strengthening, but shows a similar\r\ntrend.\r\n\r\nThe intense hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt on\r\nthe southwestern periphery of a deep layer ridge.  The track\r\nforecast is fairly straight forward.  A west-northwest to northwest\r\nmotion is predicted during the next 5 days as ridging to the north\r\nof Marie remains the primary steering mechanism.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nA partial ASCAT pass indicated that the wind field of Marie has\r\nexpanded significantly, and the wind radii have been adjusted\r\naccordingly.  Although Marie is expected to remain well off the\r\ncoast of Mexico, very large swells will continue to affect\r\nsouthwestern Mexico through tomorrow.  These swells, which are\r\nlikely to cause dangerous life-threatening surf, are forecast to\r\nspread northward along the Baja California coast during the next few\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 16.1N 109.9W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 16.6N 111.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 17.3N 113.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 18.4N 114.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 19.8N 116.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 22.4N 120.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 28.0N 130.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nMarie's eye has cleared out and warmed during the past few hours,\r\nwith very cold convective tops surrounding the center.  As a\r\nresult, TAFB and SAB measured data T-numbers of 7.0/140 kt, but both\r\nwere constrained by Dvorak rules and settled on final-T estimates of\r\nT6.5/127 kt.  Also, a UW-CIMSS intensity estimate from a 0938 AMSU\r\npass was 126 kt.  Based on these data, Marie's initial intensity is\r\nraised to 130 kt.\r\n\r\nThe 12-hour motion estimate is 285/13 kt, although Marie has\r\nactually been moving more westward during the past few hours.  The\r\nhurricane is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which\r\nextends from Texas to the northern Baja peninsula, and this feature\r\nshould propel Marie basically west-northwestward during the next 3-4\r\ndays.  Thereafter, Marie will be located between strengthening\r\nridging over northwestern Mexico and a weakness in the ridge\r\nleftover by Post-Tropical Cyclone Lowell, and it should begin to\r\nturn north-northwestward by day 5.  There is very little spread\r\namong the track guidance, and the updated NHC forecast essentially\r\nlies between the previous forecast and the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus, which has shifted a bit to the right beyond day 2.\r\n\r\nIntensity fluctuations are always possible once hurricanes like\r\nMarie get this strong.  Assuming unforeseen internal dynamics and/or\r\nan eyewall replacement do not take over soon, the environment\r\naround Marie should be able to support a little more strengthening\r\nduring the next 12-24 hours.  Thereafter, slow weakening is likely\r\nuntil about day 3 when Marie will begin weakening more quickly over\r\nwaters colder than 26C and in a more stable air mass.  The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity to\r\naccount for the recent strengthening rate, but otherwise no\r\nsignificant changes were required.\r\n\r\nAlthough Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,\r\nvery large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow\r\nand much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the next few days.  These swells will cause dangerous\r\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 16.0N 111.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 16.5N 112.9W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 17.6N 114.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 18.9N 116.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 20.3N 117.9W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 25.5N 127.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 28.5N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nMarie has developed a fairly steady-state structure, with a solid\r\narea of white (in the Dvorak satellite enhancement) surrounding a 10\r\nn mi wide eye.  Dvorak final-T numbers have risen to T7.0/140 kt\r\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT, and that value is set as the\r\ninitial intensity.  This makes Marie the first category 5 hurricane\r\nin the eastern North Pacific basin since Hurricane Celia in 2010.\r\n\r\nUnless Marie can develop even colder cloud tops in the convection\r\nsurrounding the eye, continued strengthening is probably not\r\nlikely.  The SHIPS model shows additional intensification for the\r\nnext 12-18 hours, but much of the contribution comes from\r\npersistence and not the environment itself.  Plus, a 1709 UTC AMSU\r\npass indicates that a secondary eyewall is already forming, making\r\nit likely that an eyewall replacement will occur during the next\r\nday or so.  Therefore, fluctuations in intensity are expected in\r\nthe short term, but the NHC intensity forecast keeps Marie as a\r\nmajor hurricane through 48 hours.  After that time, the hurricane\r\nwill quickly move over colder water, and it is likely to weaken to\r\na tropical storm between day 3 and 4, and then become post-tropical\r\nby day 5.  This scenario is not really different from the previous\r\nforecast, except maybe showing a little faster weakening after 48\r\nhours in line with the most recent SHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nTrochoidal motions appear to be influencing Marie's recent short\r\nterm movement, but the hurricane's longer-term 12-hour motion is\r\n270/12 kt.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered and\r\ninsists that Marie should resume a west-northwestward or even\r\nnorthwestward motion in the next 12-24 hours.  That general\r\ntrajectory should continue through day 4, with Marie turning\r\nnorth-northwestward by day 5 when it reaches the western edge of\r\nthe subtropical ridge.  As in the previous forecast, no significant\r\nchanges to the NHC track forecast were required on this advisory.\r\n\r\nAlthough Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,\r\nvery large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow\r\nand much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the\r\ncoast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening\r\nsurf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 16.0N 112.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 16.6N 113.7W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 17.9N 115.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 19.5N 117.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 20.7N 119.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 26.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 29.5N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 24 2014\r\n\r\nMarie has likely peaked in intensity. Deep convection in the\r\nhurricane's central dense overcast has warmed over the eastern\r\nsemicircle and become less symmetric.  The eye has also become\r\ncloud-filled in last-light visible satellite imagery, and has cooled\r\nsome in infrared imagery.  A 2332 UTC SSMI/S pass suggested that an\r\neyewall replacement is underway, with a secondary eyewall noted at\r\naround 60 n mi radius at that time.  The initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 130 kt for this advisory, based on a blend of Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates from 0000 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe ongoing eyewall replacement could result in fluctuations of\r\nintensity in the short term for which there is little to no\r\npredictability.  Regardless, Marie is expected to remain a major\r\nhurricane for the next day or two as it continues to move over\r\nrelatively warm waters and through a moist, low-shear environment.\r\nEven though the shear should remain quite low after that time, Marie\r\nwill be traversing considerably cooler waters and ingesting drier\r\nand more stable air.  These factors should result in a rapid\r\nspin-down of the cyclone late in the forecast period, and remnant\r\nlow status is now indicated on day 4.  Considering the current\r\nreduction in intensity, the NHC wind speed forecast is lower than\r\nthe previous one and lies between the multi-model consensus and the\r\nSHIPS model output.\r\n\r\nAfter wobbling a bit toward the west or west-southwest earlier\r\ntoday, the eye of Marie has resumed a west-northwestward motion of\r\n290/10.  There have been no significant changes regarding the track\r\nforecast philosophy.  Marie is expected to be steered on a west-\r\nnorthwestward to northwestward course during the next few days\r\naround the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge\r\nextending into the subtropical eastern Pacific. After becoming a\r\nremnant low late in the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to\r\nturn north-northwestward and slow down.  The latest track forecast\r\nis little to the right of the previous one, mostly as a result\r\nof Marie's discontinuous jog to the right earlier today.\r\n\r\nAlthough Marie is expected to remain well off the coast of Mexico,\r\nvery large swells will affect southwestern Mexico through tomorrow\r\nand much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the\r\ncoast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening\r\nsurf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 16.6N 112.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 17.5N 114.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 18.9N 116.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 20.2N 118.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 21.4N 120.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 23.9N 125.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 27.0N 129.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z 30.0N 131.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nMarie has an impressive concentric eyewall structure in recent\r\nmicrowave images.  The inner eyewall surrounds the 15 n mi diameter\r\ncircular eye, and the outer one extends about 40 to 50 n mi from\r\nthe center.  In addition, a large curved band exists beyond the\r\ninner core and wraps across the southern portion of the\r\ncirculation.  The initial wind speed is set at 125 kt, using a blend\r\nof the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  A pair\r\nof ASCAT passes around 0500 UTC confirmed the large wind field of\r\nMarie, with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 n mi\r\naway from the center.\r\n\r\nIntensity fluctuations are likely today due to the ongoing eyewall\r\nreplacement cycle.  As mentioned in previous discussions, these\r\ninternal dynamics are not predictable in terms of timing or how\r\nmany occur.  Regardless, Marie is expected to be a major\r\nhurricane for at least another 24 hours while it remains in an\r\nair mass of low shear and high moisture, and over 28-29 degrees\r\nCelsius water.  After that time, however, Marie will be moving over\r\nmuch colder water and into a more stable atmosphere.  These\r\nconditions should promote a steady or even rapid weakening.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and\r\nlies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nAfter the eye of the hurricane was wobbling around for much of the\r\nday yesterday, the cyclone seems to be on a smoother northwestward\r\ntrack now.  The initial motion estimate is 300/10.  A continued\r\nnorthwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is\r\nexpected during the next 3 to 4 days while Marie remains steered by\r\nridging to the north of the cyclone.  A turn to the north-northwest\r\nis predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening\r\nsystem begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge.  No\r\nsignificant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the\r\ncurrent track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus,\r\nTVCE.\r\n\r\nAlthough Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large\r\nswells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight\r\nand much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the\r\ncoast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening\r\nsurf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 17.3N 113.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 22.0N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 24.7N 126.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 27.8N 130.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  30/0600Z 30.2N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nThe area of the coldest cloud tops surrounding Marie's eye has been\r\ngradually shrinking in size while the eye has started to cool.\r\nHowever, Marie is still a powerful hurricane, and a blend of CI\r\nnumbers from TAFB, SAB, and the objective ADT support maintaining an\r\nintensity of 125 kt for this advisory.  A 1207 UTC SSMI/S pass\r\nindicated that Marie still has a concentric eyewall structure, so an\r\neyewall replacement has not yet occurred.  Upper-level outflow has\r\nbecome a little restricted on the northwest side of the hurricane,\r\nbut vertical shear is expected to remain light for much of the\r\nforecast period.  Internal dynamics, especially the continued\r\npotential of an eyewall replacement, will likely influence Marie's\r\nintensity during the next 24 hours.  After that time, quick\r\nweakening is expected since Marie will be moving over sub-26C\r\nwaters.  The intensity models are in good agreement in Marie's rate\r\nof weakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity\r\nforecast is therefore very close to the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMarie has turned northwestward with an initial motion of 305/11 kt.\r\nMid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the hurricane is\r\nexpected to steer Marie on a northwestward or west-northwestward\r\nheading through day 4.  The depiction of a developing mid-level\r\nhigh along the California/northwest Mexico coast in 3 days has been\r\na little stronger in recent model runs, and as a result, the track\r\nguidance for Marie has shifted westward.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast is close to a clustering of the GFS, ECMWF, and TVCE beyond\r\n48 hours.\r\n\r\nAlthough Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large\r\nswells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight\r\nand much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the\r\ncoast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening\r\nsurf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 17.9N 114.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 20.1N 118.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 21.2N 120.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 22.2N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 24.5N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  30/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nVisible and microwave satellite images indicate that Marie still has\r\nconcentric eyewalls, which are surrounded by another larger and\r\nalmost closed ring of deep convection.  Convective cloud tops have\r\ncontinued to gradually warm and become more asymmetric during the\r\npast few hours.  As a result, Dvorak estimates have dropped, and the\r\ninitial intensity is lowered to 115 kt based on a consensus of CI\r\nnumbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT.  A steady decrease in the winds\r\nis forecast to continue in the short term, but the weakening rate\r\nshould quicken after Marie moves over sub-26C waters in about 24\r\nhours.  As a result, the hurricane is now expected to weaken to a\r\ntropical storm in about 48 hours and become post-tropical by 96\r\nhours.  Marie will be over SSTs around 22 deg C in about 72 hours,\r\nso it is possible that it could become post-tropical sooner than\r\nindicated in the official forecast.  The weakening trend shown in\r\nthe current NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous\r\none and is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM models through 48\r\nhours.  Forecast intensities at the end of the period are based more\r\non the global models, which should have a better handle on the\r\nsystem during its post-tropical phase.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 305/11 kt.  Mid-level ridging will\r\ncontinue to steer Marie northwestward or west-northwestward through\r\nday 4.  Once it becomes a remnant low on day 5, Marie is likely to\r\nturn northward and slow down.  The track guidance has not changed\r\non this forecast cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nAlthough Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large\r\nswells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight\r\nand much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the\r\ncoast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening\r\nsurf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 18.4N 115.8W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 19.4N 117.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 21.7N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 22.7N 124.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 25.5N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 29.0N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  30/1800Z 31.0N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that Marie has gradually been weakening.\r\nInner-core deep convection has been slowly warming, with coldest\r\ntops now south of center.  Additionally, the eye has become less\r\ndefined and has cooled significantly since the last advisory.  A\r\n2210 UTC TRMM overpass shows that the hurricane has also been\r\nmaintaining a classic concentric eyewall structure - a double\r\neyewall within 60 n mi of the center, with the inner eyewall\r\npossibly in the process of collapsing. A third, less-defined eyewall\r\nwas noted at around 110 n mi radius, separated by a prominent dry\r\nslot. The initial intensity for this advisory is reduced to 100 kt,\r\nbased on the latest Dvorak CI numbers from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nContinued slow weakening is expected in the short term due to\r\ngradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and the possibility of\r\nthe current eyewall replacement evolving further. Even though the\r\nvertical shear is forecast to be light, Marie will be crossing the\r\n26 deg C isotherm in 12-18 hours and should reach sub-24 deg C\r\nwaters by 48 hours. With the thermodynamic environment worsening so\r\nquickly, near-rapid weakening is likely after about 24 hours until\r\nthe cyclone becomes post-tropical by day 3.  The cyclone will then\r\ncontinue to spin down over even cooler waters, but the remnant\r\ncirculation could linger beyond the end of the forecast period.  The\r\nintensity forecast has been lowered a bit relative to the previous\r\none due mostly to the greater rate of weakening observed since the\r\nlast advisory.\r\n\r\nMarie is continuing on a steady northwestward course of 305/11.\r\nMid-level ridging extending west-southwestward from the eastern\r\nUnited States in the subtropical eastern Pacific should continue to\r\nsteer Marie on a west-northwestward to northwestward path during\r\nthe next few days.  After losing its deep convection by day 3 or so,\r\nthe cyclone's track should bend north-northwestward or even\r\nnorthward and slow down.  There continues to be little change with\r\nregard to the track guidance and little in the way of modifications\r\nwas made to the previous track.  The new NHC track is in the center\r\nof guidance envelope and close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nAlthough Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large\r\nswells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight\r\nand much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the next few days.  Southerly swells will also reach the\r\ncoast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening\r\nsurf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 19.2N 116.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 20.2N 118.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 21.3N 120.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 22.4N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 23.5N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 26.5N 130.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 29.4N 132.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/0000Z 30.8N 133.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave images indicate that Marie still has a double eyewall\r\nstructure, though the outer eyewall is open on the north side.\r\nThe eye of the hurricane remains fairly distinct in satellite\r\nimages, but deep convection is not as intense as it was earlier.\r\nThe initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt, following the Dvorak\r\nCI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  An ASCAT pass around 0500 UTC\r\nindicated that despite the weakening, the wind field of Marie\r\nremains very large.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving across a sharp sea surface temperature\r\ngradient, and it is expected to cross the 26 degree C isotherm later\r\ntoday.  These cold waters, combined with a drier and more stable air\r\nmass, should cause Marie to continue weakening at a steady pace. The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and shows\r\nMarie becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 72 hours when it is\r\nexpected to be over water temperatures below 23 C.\r\n\r\nMarie is moving northwestward at 12 kt.  A west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast\r\nduring the next few days while the system remains steered by\r\nmid-level ridging to its northeast.  A slow down and turn toward\r\nthe north-northwest is expected by the end of the forecast period\r\nwhen the weak system is steered by the lighter low-level flow.  The\r\nNHC track forecast is nudged to the south this cycle, toward the\r\nlatest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nVery large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, and will soon reach the southern California\r\ncoast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days,\r\nand could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as\r\nminor coastal flooding.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 19.9N 117.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 21.9N 121.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 22.9N 124.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 24.2N 126.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 27.3N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 29.9N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/0600Z 30.5N 133.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave data show that Marie continues to have a complicated\r\ninner core structure, with an remnant inner eyewall surrounded\r\nby a pair of larger concentric eyewall rings.  Dvorak estimates are\r\nstill falling, so the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt.\r\nSteady-to-rapid weakening of Marie is expected with the cyclone now\r\ncrossing the 26.5C isotherm into much colder waters.  The intensity\r\nforecast is a blend of the previous NHC prediction, the intensity\r\nconsensus and the Florida State Superensemble.  Marie should become\r\na non-convective post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it moves\r\nover waters colder than 23C, although there will likely still be\r\ngale-force winds for some time after the transition.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 300/13 kt.  Model guidance is in excellent\r\nagreement on a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during\r\nthe next few days while the system remains steered by mid-level\r\nridging to its northeast.  Marie should slow and turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of\r\nthe ridge.  The remnants of the cyclone are then expected to drift\r\nwestward after that time within an area of light steering.  Only a\r\nsmall southwestward adjustment has been made to the official\r\nforecast at long range to come into better agreement with the\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\nVery large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, and will soon reach the southern California\r\ncoast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days,\r\nand could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as\r\nminor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 20.7N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 21.6N 120.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 23.7N 125.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 25.1N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 28.1N 131.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 30.5N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nInfrared satellite does not suggest much has changed with Marie\r\nduring the day, with the cyclone still displaying a small cloud-\r\nfilled eye.  Microwave data do show that the inner eyewall has\r\nbecome closed again, so it appears the recent weakening trend has\r\nhalted.  Satellite estimates are mostly unchanged from 6 hours ago,\r\nso the initial wind speed will stay 85 kt.  Although the inner core\r\nstructure appears to have improved, Marie is moving quickly across\r\nmuch cooler waters, which should cause the hurricane to weaken\r\nsoon.  Guidance shows a slower decay than the last cycle, which is\r\nhard to believe given that Marie will be moving over waters cooler\r\nthan 24C in 24 hours and will probably lose all convection within 48\r\nhours.  Thus the new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the last\r\none, but now lies on the lower side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has shifted a bit leftward--295/13 kt.  A\r\nmid-level ridge over Mexico should continue steering Marie on a\r\nwest-northwest to northwest track for the next couple of days.\r\nThe hurricane is expected to slow and turn toward the north-\r\nnorthwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of the\r\nridge, but then drift westward as the low-level ridge rebuilds to\r\nthe northwest of Marie or its remnants.  The official forecast is\r\nonly slightly modified to the west at long range to account for the\r\nlatest guidance.\r\n\r\nVery large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, and are now reaching the southern California\r\ncoast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days,\r\nand could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as\r\nminor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 21.1N 120.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 21.9N 122.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 23.1N 124.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 24.3N 127.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 25.8N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 28.9N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 30.2N 133.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/1800Z 30.0N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014\r\n\r\nMarie's eye has completely filled in and disappeared in infrared\r\nsatellite imagery while convective tops continue to warm.  Dvorak\r\nnumbers are slowly decreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered\r\nto 80 kt on this advisory.  Marie is now moving over SSTs near 25C,\r\nand the hurricane will be over water as cold as 22C in about 48\r\nhours.  Therefore, a gradual spin-down of the circulation is\r\nexpected during the next couple of days, and the cold water is\r\nlikely to cause Marie to lose its deep convection and become\r\npost-tropical by late Thursday.  The updated NHC intensity forecast\r\nis very similar to the previous one, and closely follows the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has continued to turn a little to the left, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  An unseasonably strong\r\nmid-tropospheric high is forecast to develop along the southern\r\nCalifornia/northern Baja coast during the next day or two, and this\r\nfeature should cause Marie to turn toward the north-northwest by\r\nday 3.  Once Marie becomes a remnant low, lower-level ridging to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone will cause it to slow down and turn westward\r\nby the end of the forecast period.  The track guidance is tightly\r\nclustered, especially through 72 hours, and no significant changes\r\nwere required to the official track forecast.\r\n\r\nVery large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and have reached the southern California\r\ncoast.  These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days\r\nand could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as\r\nminor coastal flooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 21.6N 121.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 22.4N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 23.6N 125.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 25.0N 128.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 26.5N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 29.5N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 30.0N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z 29.5N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nMarie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the\r\neyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops\r\nhave warmed outside of the inner core region.  In addition, a dry\r\nslot is now evident to the north of the center.  The initial\r\nintensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak classifications.   The hurricane is currently over 25 C water\r\nand it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few\r\ndays.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more\r\nstable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue.\r\nMarie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48\r\nhours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around\r\n22 C.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left\r\nof the previous forecast track.  The initial motion estimate is\r\n285/11.  A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is\r\nexpected during the next few days while the weakening system moves\r\naround a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the\r\nnorthern Baja California.  Beyond a few days, the shallow system is\r\nexpected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the\r\nlow-level flow.  The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward,\r\nmainly to account for the initial motion and position.\r\n\r\nVery large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the southern California coast.  These\r\nswells are expected to persist for another day or so and could\r\nproduce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor\r\ncoastal flooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 21.7N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 23.8N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 25.5N 129.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 27.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 29.5N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 29.8N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z 29.2N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marie","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nConvective cloud tops associated with Marie continue to warm and\r\nrecent microwave imagery shows the inner-core convection becoming\r\nless organized.  The initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt, which\r\nis a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB and objective ADT CI numbers from UW-CIMSS. Marie will\r\nbe moving over progressively cooler water and into a more stable\r\nenvironment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in\r\ncontinued weakening and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical\r\ncyclone within 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A west-northwestward\r\nmotion should continue today, followed by a turn toward the\r\nnorthwest while the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery\r\nof a mid-level high off the coast of the northern Baja Peninsula.\r\nAfter the system becomes shallow, it is expected to turn westward\r\nand then west-southwestward in northeasterly low-level flow.  The\r\nmodel guidance has trended toward a somewhat faster motion of Marie\r\nduring the first few days of the forecast period.  The NHC forecast\r\nhas been adjusted accordingly and is close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nVery large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the southern California coast.  These\r\nswells are expected to persist for another day or so and are likely\r\nto produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor\r\ncoastal flooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 22.3N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 23.3N 125.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 24.8N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 26.4N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 28.0N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 30.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 30.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1200Z 29.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Marie continues to degrade with\r\nconvection now confined to the southeastern portion of the\r\ncirculation.  The center has also become partially exposed.\r\nSubjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI- numbers continue to\r\ndecrease, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 55 kt.  This is\r\nalso supported by a recent partial ASCAT pass that showed winds to\r\n50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation. The cyclone is\r\nexpected to continue weakening while it moves over sea surface\r\ntemperatures of 22 to 23 degrees Celsius, and into a more stable\r\nenvironment during the next couple of days.  Marie should become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone by late Thursday.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 13 kt.  A\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward motion is forecast to continue\r\nduring the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is steered around\r\nthe western side of a mid-level high off the coast of the northern\r\nBaja California peninsula.  After Marie becomes a shallow system, it\r\nshould turn westward or west-southwestward in low-level\r\nnortheasterly flow.  The new NHC track is essentially an update of\r\nthe previous advisory.\r\n\r\nVery large southerly swells continue to affect much of the west\r\ncoast of the Baja California peninsula and the coast of southern\r\nCalifornia.  These swells are expected to persist for another day or\r\nso and are likely to produce life-threatening surf and rip\r\ncurrents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high\r\ntide.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 23.1N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 24.1N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 25.8N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 27.6N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 29.0N 133.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 30.0N 135.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 30.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z 29.5N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 27 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern has not changed since the last advisory.\r\nHowever, the center of Marie is now over SSTs less than 24C, and\r\nthe circulation continues to gradually spin down.  ASCAT data still\r\nshowed a sizable area of 50-kt winds several hours ago, so the\r\ninitial intensity is only lowered to 50 kt, which is on the higher\r\nside of the satellite intensity estimates.  Water temperatures\r\nbetween 22-23C and a stable environment will cause the cyclone to\r\ncontinue weakening, and Marie could become a convection-free\r\npost-tropical cyclone in about 24 hours.\r\n\r\nA strengthening mid-level high near the coast of California and\r\nthe Baja California peninsula has caused Marie to accelerate a bit,\r\nwith an initial motion of 300/14 kt.  Marie is forecast to turn\r\nnorthwestward around this high during the next 48 hours, but then\r\nslow down considerably and turn westward and west-southwestward by\r\nthe end of the forecast period when it is steered by lower-level\r\nflow.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little bit farther north\r\nthan the previous one beyond day 3 during the remnant low phase,\r\nbut otherwise there are no significant changes.\r\n\r\nLarge southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the coast of southern California will\r\ngradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce\r\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal\r\nflooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 23.8N 126.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 25.0N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 28.4N 132.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 29.6N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 30.5N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 30.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z 30.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection near Marie has significantly decreased in the past\r\nfew hours, with the low-level center becoming partially exposed on\r\nthe north side of the old central dense overcast.  The initial\r\nwind speed is reduced to 45 kt, on the higher side of the latest\r\nsatellite classifications.  Since Marie is now over sub-23C waters,\r\nit is no longer expected to produce organized deep convection and\r\nshould become post-tropical in about 12 hours.  The large\r\ncirculation will take some time to spin down even without\r\nconvection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows only a gradual\r\ndecay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMarie is moving to the northwest or 305/14 kt.  This general motion\r\nis expected for the next day or so while the cyclone remains under\r\nthe influence of a mid-level high near the coast of southern\r\nCalifornia.  Marie or its remnants are forecast to slow down\r\nconsiderably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of\r\nthe forecast period when it is steered by the lower-level flow.\r\nModel guidance has nudged a bit to the west in the first 48 hours,\r\nso the NHC track forecast is adjusted in that direction.  Beyond day\r\n3, the updated NHC track prediction, similar to the previous\r\nforecast, is a little bit farther north.\r\n\r\nLarge southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the coast of southern California will\r\ngradually subside through Friday.  These swells could still produce\r\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal\r\nflooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 24.4N 127.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 25.6N 129.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 28.9N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 30.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 30.7N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z 30.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nMarie has continued to produce a small area of convection south and\r\neast of the center for the past few hours, but the tops have been\r\nwarming recently. The initial intensity is set at 40 kt, a bit above\r\nthe latest satellite classifications. Deep convection should\r\ndissipate shortly now that Marie is moving over SSTs around 22C, and\r\nMarie should become post-tropical by tonight. Gradual weakening is\r\nexpected during the forecast period, as it will take the large\r\ncirculation some time to spin down even without convection. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/13. A general northwestward\r\nmotion is expected for the next couple of days while the cyclone\r\nremains under the influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the\r\ncoast of southern California. Marie is forecast to slow down\r\nconsiderably and turn westward and west-southwestward by the end of\r\nthe period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one after adjustment for the\r\ninitial position and motion.\r\n\r\nLarge southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the coast of southern California will\r\ngradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce\r\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal\r\nflooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 25.4N 128.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 26.7N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 28.2N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 30.8N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z 30.0N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":28,"Date":"2014-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has been absent from Marie since around the time of\r\nthe previous advisory. Convection seems unlikely to return given\r\nthat the cyclone is moving over waters of around 22C. If convection\r\ndoes not return, the cyclone will likely be declared post-tropical\r\ntonight. The vortex still has an impressive presentation in visible\r\nsatellite imagery, with a tight swirl of low clouds and a\r\ncirculation that spans about 10 degrees of latitude. The initial\r\nintensity of 35 kt is in agreement with the latest Dvorak\r\nclassification from TAFB. Only slow weakening is forecast during the\r\nnext few days given the scale of the circulation, and the remnant\r\nlow is expected to persist through the 5-day period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/14. A general northwestward\r\nmotion is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone remains under\r\nthe influence of a mid-level ridge centered near the coast of\r\nsouthern California. By 72 hours Marie is forecast to slow down\r\nconsiderably and turn westward and then west-southwestward by the\r\nend of the period as it is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous one after adjusting for\r\nthe initial position and motion.\r\n\r\nLarge southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the coast of southern California will\r\ngradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce\r\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal\r\nflooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 26.1N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 27.4N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 28.8N 133.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 29.8N 135.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 30.6N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 30.9N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 30.6N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marie","Adv":29,"Date":"2014-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014\r\n\r\nMarie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past\r\n12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows\r\nthat the center is approaching water as cold as 21C.  Since deep\r\nconvection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is\r\nexpected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already.  In\r\nthe meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt\r\nbased on an earlier ASCAT pass.  The large circulation will take\r\nsome time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is\r\nforecast through the 5-day period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the\r\nwestern edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of\r\nCalifornia and the Baja California peninsula.  Marie will slow down\r\nduring the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge.  Then,\r\nthe low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward\r\nand eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period.  The\r\nNHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nLarge southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the coast of southern California will\r\ngradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce\r\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal\r\nflooding around the time of high tide.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 27.0N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 28.2N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 29.4N 134.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 30.3N 135.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 30.8N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 30.8N 138.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 30.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z 30.0N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Marie","Adv":30,"Date":"2014-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP132014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 29 2014\r\n\r\nThere has been no organized deep convection within the circulation\r\nof the system for many hours now, so Marie has transitioned into a\r\npost-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed remains 35 kt in\r\nagreement with 30-35 kt winds noted in a 0530 UTC ASCAT-B pass.  The\r\nlarge circulation will gradually spin down over cold waters of the\r\neastern North Pacific, and the NHC intensity forecast is in good\r\nagreement with the global model guidance and the previous NHC\r\nprediction.\r\n\r\nMarie is moving northwestward at about 12 kt. The cyclone should\r\nslow down during the next day or so as it moves away from a\r\nmid-level ridge near California into an area of lighter steering\r\ncurrents.  The low-level ridge is forecast to build to the northwest\r\nof Marie after that time, causing the post-tropical cyclone to move\r\nwest-northwestward and eventually west-southwestward by the end of\r\nthe period.  The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous\r\none and is close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nLarge southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and the coast of southern California will\r\ngradually subside through tonight. These swells could still produce\r\nlife-threatening surf and rip currents.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Marie.  For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,\r\nplease see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\r\nService under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 27.6N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 28.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 29.7N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 30.4N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 30.7N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 30.7N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 30.3N 140.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z 29.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles southwest\r\nof Manzanillo now has enough organized convection to be considered a\r\ntropical cyclone.  Although moderate northeasterly shear is present,\r\nbanding features are in the southern semicircle of the cyclone along\r\nwith bursts of convection near the center.  The initial wind speed\r\nis set to 35 kt in accordance with earlier ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nNorbert has been moving toward the north-northeast or 020/12.\r\nAlmost all of the guidance show Norbert turning sharply northward\r\nand west-northwestward within 24 hours due to the cyclone leaving\r\nthe ITCZ and becoming steered by a mid-level high over Mexico.  The\r\nNHC prediction during this time is on the right side of the guidance\r\nenvelope, mostly because of the initial motion.  After that time,\r\nthere is some uncertainty in the strength of the ridge over\r\nnorthwestern Mexico, which causes some spread in the model tracks of\r\nNorbert while it approaches the southern Baja California peninsula.\r\nWhile the NHC forecast is close to the model consensus after 24\r\nhours, it would not be surprising to see later forecasts be\r\nadjusted a bit to the north at longer range, given model trends.\r\n\r\nThe environment near Norbert seems mostly favorable for\r\nstrengthening during the next few days with the cyclone forecast\r\nover warm waters with moderate shear.  Given this environment, it\r\nis a little surprising that none of the more reliable models makes\r\nNorbert a hurricane.  Since there is some possibility of land\r\ninteraction and higher shear, the NHC prediction will be a little\r\nabove the model consensus, but below the highest guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.6N 107.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.3N 108.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 21.8N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 23.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 23.5N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images suggest that Norbert has become a little better\r\norganized during the day since the center is no longer partially\r\nexposed and banding features have become somewhat better defined.\r\nIntensity estimates, however, are about the same as 6 hours ago, so\r\nthe wind speed is kept at 35 kt.  Except for moderate northeasterly\r\nshear, environmental conditions appear favorable for strengthening\r\nfor the next couple of days.  Intensity guidance is a bit higher\r\nthan 6 hours ago, with the HWRF now calling for Norbert to become a\r\nhurricane.  The new NHC forecast will follow the trend of the\r\nguidance and shows a higher peak intensity than the last one,\r\nbetween the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nNorbert has turned northward and has slowed, with an initial motion\r\nof about 360/8. The leftward turn should continue overnight, with a\r\nwest-northwestward track expected in about 24 hours as Norbert comes\r\nunder the influence of a mid-level high over Mexico. This high\r\nweakens somewhat in a couple of days, which could then force Norbert\r\non a more northwestward track.  While the bulk of the guidance still\r\nshows the center of Norbert passing south of the Baja California\r\npeninsula, there has been a northward trend noted in much of the\r\nguidance.  The NHC forecast is adjusted to the north and now lies\r\nnorth of the model consensus, but is still south of the latest ECMWF\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThe new NHC track forecast suggests an increasing chance of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds in southern Baja California Sur, and a\r\ntropical storm watch has been issued for the extreme southern part\r\nof the state.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 19.4N 107.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 20.5N 109.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 21.1N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 22.6N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 23.6N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 24.0N 116.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert has continued to slowly become better organized over the\r\npast few hours. Deep convection has increase near the center in a\r\nCDO-like feature, and a curved convective band extends into the\r\nwestern semicircle. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on a\r\nblend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, and\r\nthis could be a bit conservative. The SHIPS model shows some\r\nmoderate northeasterly to easterly shear over the cyclone for the\r\nnext 2 to 3 days, but otherwise conditions appear favorable for\r\nstrengthening. There is a fair bit of spread in the intensity\r\nguidance, in part due to variability in the track forecast. The\r\nHWRF model now shows the cyclone moving over the Baja peninsula, and\r\nhas trended a bit weaker. On the other hand, the SHIPS model now\r\nshows Norbert becoming a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours. The new NHC\r\ntrack takes Norbert over warmer SSTs closer to the Baja peninsula in\r\n2 to 3 days and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward,\r\nshowing Norbert becoming a hurricane in 48 hours. This forecast is\r\nclose to the SHIPS model and the FSU Superensemble. Gradual\r\nweakening is forecast at days 3 through 5 as the cyclone moves over\r\ncooler waters.\r\n\r\nNorbert has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with\r\nan initial motion estimate of 330/07. The dominant steering\r\nmechanism through the period will be a mid-level ridge centered over\r\nthe southern United States, which should generally steer Norbert\r\nnorthwestward during the next 72 hours and then west-northwestward.\r\nMuch of the track model guidance has shifted well to the right, or\r\nnorth, for this forecast cycle, especially at 48 hours and beyond.\r\nThe GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and GFDL are now north of the\r\nECMWF, which was previously along the right side of the guidance\r\nenvelope. This shift appears to be due to a deeper representation of\r\nNorbert and more erosion of the subtropical ridge to the north.\r\nThe NHC track has been shifted to the right this cycle, and now\r\nlies south of the multi-model consensus aid TVCE. The NHC track is\r\nclose to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF through 36 hours and is a\r\nlittle south of that model blend afterward.\r\n\r\nGiven the large shift in the guidance and the large spread,\r\nconfidence in the track forecast is lower than normal and additional\r\nadjustments may be needed in future forecast cycles. The rightward\r\nshift in the track increases the threat to the southern part of the\r\nBaja California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane warning\r\ncould be needed for this area tonight or early Wednesday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 19.2N 106.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.8N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 20.4N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 21.9N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 23.5N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 25.3N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern of Norbert has improved significantly\r\nsince the previous advisory. A pronounced CDO feature has developed\r\nwith two distinct convective bands wrapping into the center. A 0432\r\nUTC AMSU microwave indicated that a small mid-level eye feature\r\ncould be trying to form. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB were a consensus T3.0/45 kt at 0600 UTC, and UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nvalues have been steadily increasing and are now T3.7/59 kt. Based\r\non these intensity estimates, the continued improvement in the cloud\r\npattern, and the small radius of maximum winds, the advisory\r\nintensity is conservatively set at 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is still northwestward or 305/07 kt.\r\nNorbert is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction\r\naround the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge\r\nthat stretches westward across northern Mexico and Baja California.\r\nThis motion, accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed, is\r\nexpected to persist throughout the forecast period. The NHC model\r\nguidance has shifted slightly to the right again, but the size of\r\nthe guidance envelope has decreased, showing much less spread on\r\nthis cycle. The official forecast track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory track through 36 hours, and then is somewhat to right of\r\nthe previous forecast after that.\r\n\r\nThe combination of the small radius of maximum winds, 29.5C SSTs, a\r\nmoist mid-level environment, and vertical shear decreasing to\r\naround 10 kt suggests that Norbert should at least intensity at the\r\ntypical rate of 20-25 kt per day for the next 36 hours or so.\r\nHowever, if thew shear decrease more than currently expected, then\r\nrapid intensification during the next 24 hours is a very distinct\r\npossibility. By 96 hours and beyond, Norbert will be moving over\r\nSSTs less than 26.5C, which should induce slow weakening. NHC\r\nintensity forecast is above the previous forecast, and closely\r\nfollows the SHIPS intensity model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 19.6N 107.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 21.4N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 24.0N 112.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 25.1N 115.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 26.2N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert has become significantly better organized this morning.\r\nThe central dense overcast has become more symmetric with more\r\nprominent banding around the center.  Microwave images also show\r\nthat the inner core is becoming better defined, with the likely\r\nfirst stages of a primitive eye.  The initial wind speed is set to\r\n55 kt, at the top end of the subjective Dvorak estimates, although\r\nthe latest objective numbers are higher.  With the improvement in\r\nthe inner core, light-to-moderate shear, and very warm waters,\r\nfuture strengthening seems quite likely.  In fact, rapid\r\nintensification is a distinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI\r\nshowing about a 1-in-3 chance of Norbert becoming 30 kt stronger in\r\nthe next 24 hours.  Considering the environmental factors and the\r\nlow bias of the deterministic guidance so far, the new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is raised considerably from the previous one, about 5 kt\r\nabove the highest guidance through 48 hours.  After that time,\r\ncooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to weaken\r\nthe cyclone.  The NHC forecast is blended with the previous\r\nforecast and the intensity consensus at long range.\r\n\r\nWith recent microwave and visible imagery, it appears that Norbert\r\nhas been moving westward over the past few hours.  However, a more\r\nrepresentative long-term motion is 295/8.  Mid-level ridging is\r\nexpected to weaken later today over northwestern Mexico, which\r\nshould cause Norbert to turn more to the northwest.  While all of\r\nthe reliable guidance keeps the center of the storm offshore of Baja\r\nCalifornia Sur, Norbert should come close enough to bring tropical-\r\nstorm-force winds to the state.  The models have shifted somewhat\r\nsouthward since the last cycle, and with the recent westward motion,\r\nit makes sense to adjust the NHC forecast a little farther south for\r\nthe first day or so.  There hasn't been much change to the guidance\r\nbeyond day 3, so the new forecast is basically an update to the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 20.1N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 20.9N 110.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 21.8N 111.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 22.6N 111.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 24.4N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 27.0N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Norbert is still on an\r\nintensification trend.  While no eye is apparent in visible imagery,\r\nrecent microwave imagery indicates that an eye is trying to form.\r\nThe cyclone has a long curved band around the southern and western\r\nsemicircle wrapping into the small central dense overcast.  A blend\r\nof the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates gives 60 kt as the\r\ninitial wind speed.\r\n\r\nIt is hard to find a reason why Norbert will not significantly\r\nintensify during the next day or so since it will remain over very\r\nwarm waters, the shear does not appear to be that detrimental, and\r\nit already has many features of an inner core. Yet the best model\r\nguidance is lower than 6 hours ago, with no forecast above 80 kt for\r\na peak intensity.  With so many favorable environmental factors and\r\nthe low model bias observed this season (and this cyclone), the new\r\nNHC forecast will stay close to the previous one.  Weakening should\r\nbegin in a few days when Norbert moves over cooler waters and into\r\nthe more stable atmosphere of the subtropical eastern Pacific Ocean.\r\n\r\nAfter a brief westward track, Norbert appears to be moving more\r\nto the west-northwest, or 300/6.  Global models are in good\r\nagreement on a weakening ridge over northwestern Mexico forcing the\r\nstorm to move northwestward over the next few days.  Model guidance\r\nis well clustered on a track offshore of Baja Califoria Sur, except\r\nfor the GFDL which has a known northward bias in this region.\r\nNorbert is still expected to pass close enough to bring tropical-\r\nstorm-force winds to portions of the state. The new forecast is a\r\nlittle farther south of the previous one during the first 24 hours,\r\nmostly because of the earlier westward motion.  Little change has\r\nbeen made to the rest of the forecast, which is just to the west of\r\nthe dynamical track consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the combination of Norbert and the remnants of\r\nAtlantic Tropical Storm Dolly is expected to spread northwestward\r\nacross northern Mexico during the next couple of days, and into the\r\nsouthwestern United States over the weekend.  Heavy rain causing\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding are possible in those regions.\r\nPlease see information from your local weather office for more\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 19.6N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 20.1N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.9N 110.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 21.9N 111.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 23.0N 112.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 24.5N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 26.0N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 28.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 03 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert continues to intensify this evening.  Evening visible\r\nsatellite images showed a symmetric central dense overcast feature\r\nwith curved convective bands wrapping around the center. The latest\r\nDvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMMS ADT were\r\nbetween 65 and 77 kt, and the initial wind speed has been increased\r\nto 70 kt for this advisory.  Norbert is the ninth hurricane to form\r\nin the eastern Pacific basin this season.\r\n\r\nThe outflow has become well established, except over the\r\nnortheastern portion of the cyclone where there is a hint of light\r\nto moderate northeasterly shear. However, the shear is not expected\r\nto be strong enough to inhibit strengthening during the next day or\r\nso while Norbert remains over warm water. The NHC forecast is close\r\nto the SHIPS model through 36 h and is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory. After that time, Norbert will be approaching cooler waters\r\nand a drier and more stable airmass, which should cause weakening to\r\ncommence. A faster rate of weakening is forecast in 48 to 72 hours\r\nwhen the cyclone moves over SSTs below 26C.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane appears to have turned northwestward with an initial\r\nmotion of 305/7 kt.  Norbert should continue on a general\r\nnorthwestward motion during the next several days around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward\r\nacross northern Mexico.  The model guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthe general heading of the cyclone, although there are some\r\ndifferences in the forward speed of Norbert later in the period.\r\nMuch of the guidance now indicates a faster forward speed late in\r\nthe period, with the GFS showing a deeper cyclone moving even faster\r\nand farther north than the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF.  The updated NHC\r\ntrack forecast is a little faster than the previous advisory to be\r\nin better agreement with the multi-model consensus, but is not\r\nnearly as fast as the GFS.\r\n\r\nMoisture indirectly related to Norbert being pulled northward\r\naround the eastern side of cyclone's large circulation is expected\r\nto spread across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United\r\nStates during the next few days. This could result in heavy rains\r\nand life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 19.9N 109.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 20.7N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 21.7N 111.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 22.8N 112.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 23.7N 113.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 25.3N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 27.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 29.0N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images, including a NASA GPM overpass at 0516 UTC,\r\nindicate that Norbert has lost some organization during the past\r\nfew hours due to easterly vertical wind shear.  The low-level center\r\nis in the northeastern part of the central convection with a\r\nmid-level eye displaced to the southwest of the low-level center.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged at 77\r\nand 65 kt, and the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique estimates an\r\nintensity of 65 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity\r\nremains 70 kt.\r\n\r\nThe microwave data indicate that the center of Norbert made a\r\nnorthward turn since the previous advisory.  The initial motion is\r\na somewhat uncertain 325/5.  Norbert should continue on a general\r\nnorthwestward motion during the next three days around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends westward\r\nacross northern Mexico.  This part of the forecast track has\r\nbeen nudged to the east based on the current position and motion.\r\nAfter 72 hours, the guidance becomes more divergent due to\r\ndisagreements in how Norbert interacts with a mid/upper-level trough\r\nover the northeastern Pacific.  The GFS and NAVGEM forecast Norbert\r\nto turn northward, while the ECMWF is forecasting a westward turn\r\nand a slower forward speed.  The other models are spread between\r\nthese extremes.  The later part of the new track forecast is similar\r\nto the previous advisory, and is showing a slow northward motion as\r\na compromise between the extremes.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models now suggest that moderate shear should\r\ncontinue for the next 24-36 hours, and as a result the intensity\r\nguidance shows less strengthening than 6 hours ago.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is thus nudged downward.  Norbert should start\r\nweakening by 48 hours as it reaches cooler sea surface\r\ntemperatures, and the system is forecast to degenerate to a remnant\r\nlow by the end of the forecast period.  The new intensity forecast\r\nis in best agreement with the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture indirectly related to Norbert being pulled northward\r\naround the eastern side of the cyclone's large circulation is\r\nexpected to spread across northern Mexico and into the southwestern\r\nUnited States during the next few days. This could result in heavy\r\nrains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 20.5N 109.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 21.2N 110.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 22.2N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 23.1N 112.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 23.9N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 25.5N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 27.5N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 29.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 04 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert has become a little better organized overnight, with the\r\nTRMM and AMSR2 microwave sensors indicating that the low- and\r\nmid-level centers have become more vertically aligned.  The cyclone\r\nis still experiencing northeasterly shear though, given the\r\nasymmetric shape on the latest satellite images. Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates are all near 75 kt, so that will used as the initial wind\r\nspeed.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to\r\ninvestigate Norbert, and should provide a more precise estimate of\r\nits intensity.\r\n\r\nWhile moderate shear has been affecting the cyclone, it has not\r\nbeen strong enough to prevent slow strengthening.  Although the\r\nshear is not forecast to change much over the next few days,\r\nNorbert is expected to move into an environment characterized by\r\ncooler SSTs and drier, more stable air.  These negative factors\r\nshould cause some weakening on Friday, with a more significant\r\ndownward trend anticipated by late this weekend.  The latest NHC\r\nforecast is close to a blend of the previous interpolated forecast\r\nand the intensity consensus.  Norbert should become a remnant low in\r\nabout 4 days due to it moving over very cool waters west of Baja\r\nCalifornia.\r\n\r\nThe track of Norbert has been quite erratic over the past 24 hours,\r\nbut a 12-hour motion still appears to be northwestward at about 6\r\nkt.  A mid-level ridge is expected to remain over northwestern\r\nMexico, keeping Norbert on the same general course during the next\r\nfew days, offshore of Baja California.  At long range, model\r\nguidance remains divergent on how much of a northward turn that\r\nNorbert will take due to a mid-latitude trough weakening the ridge.\r\nThe 3-5 day track also partially depends on the intensity at that\r\ntime range, with a deeper system probably moving farther west, more\r\nlike the ECMWF solution.  Since there has not been much change to\r\nthe overall guidance, the new NHC forecast is about the same as the\r\nprevious one, and remains relatively close to the dynamical model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days.  Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 20.7N 110.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 21.5N 111.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 22.5N 112.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 23.5N 113.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 24.3N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 25.9N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 27.6N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1200Z 29.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert has changed little on satellite images today, with the\r\ncentral dense overcast remaining fairly solid, and only faint hints\r\nof an eye.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found\r\nmaximum 700 mb winds of 84 kt, with peak SFMR values of 78 kt. These\r\ndata support an initial intensity of 80 kt for this advisory, which\r\nhappen to correspond well to a blend of all the currently available\r\nDvorak estimates.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is probably near its peak intensity since it will soon\r\nmove over somewhat cooler SSTs and become more influenced by drier\r\nstable air from the subtropical eastern Pacific waters.  Model\r\nguidance is in fairly good agreement on the cyclone gradually losing\r\nstrength over the next few days, and little change has been made to\r\nthe previous forecast, which remains close to the model consensus.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to transition into a remnant low in about 4\r\ndays when it moves over waters cooler than 24C.\r\n\r\nNorbert is moving northwestward at about 7 kt. A mid-level ridge is\r\nexpected to persist over northwestern Mexico, keeping Norbert on the\r\nsame general course during the next few days.  Model guidance has\r\nshifted a bit closer to the southern Baja California peninsula\r\nduring the first couple of days, but all of the guidance keeps the\r\ncenter a relatively safe distance offshore.  Thereafter, the key to\r\nthe long range forecast appears to be how much ridging rebuilds in\r\nover northwestern Mexico in the wake of a weak shortwave.  The ECMWF\r\nand the UKMET have a stronger ridge, which keeps Norbert, or its\r\nremnants, farther offshore of southern California. The GFS-based\r\nguidance moves Norbert closer to northwestern Mexico or southern\r\nCalifornia, mostly due to a weaker ridge.  The dynamical model\r\nconsensus has changed little during the past few cycles, so I have\r\nelected to keep the previous forecast almost the same at days 4-5,\r\nwhich is just a bit south of the latest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days.  Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 21.2N 110.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 23.9N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 24.8N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 26.4N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 28.1N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/1800Z 29.0N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 04 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed much\r\nduring the past several hours.  There has been no evidence of an eye\r\nin either geostationary or recent microwave images, however the\r\ncentral dense overcast remains fairly symmetric with cloud tops\r\ncolder than -80C.  Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain\r\nunchanged and the initial wind speed is kept at 80 kt.  The\r\nhurricane has likely peaked in intensity and some slight weakening\r\nis predicted during the next 24 hours while the large circulation\r\ninteracts with land and begins to ingest some drier and more stable\r\nair from the west. After that time, Norbert is forecast to move over\r\nprogressively cooler waters and into a less favorable thermodynamic\r\nenvironment.  This should lead to a faster rate of weakening and\r\nNorbert is predicted to become a remnant low in about 4 days.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM models during the\r\nfirst day or so, and in good agreement with the intensity consensus\r\nthereafter.\r\n\r\nRecent satellite fixes indicate that Norbert is moving north-\r\nnorthwestward or 330/7 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move\r\ngenerally northwestward around the southwestern portion of a\r\nmid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days. The\r\nmodel guidance has once again shifted eastward during the first 48\r\nhours, which has required another eastward adjustment to the NHC\r\ntrack.  Although none of the guidance models show the center of\r\nNorbert crossing the coast of the Baja peninsula, the eastward shift\r\nmeans that the core of the hurricane is likely to pass closer to\r\nportions of the Pacific coast of Baja. Only a slight deviation to\r\nthe right of the track would bring hurricane-force winds to the\r\ncoast.  As a result, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane\r\nWarning for a portion of the Pacific coast of the Baja peninsula. As\r\nnoted in the previous discussion, large spread remains in the track\r\nguidance after 72 hours, and the NHC track lies near the multi-model\r\nconsensus at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days.  Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 22.0N 111.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 22.9N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 23.9N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 24.8N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 25.7N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 27.1N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/0000Z 29.0N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert has changed little in organization during the past several\r\nhours.  The hurricane continues to have a large central dense\r\novercast with cloud tops colder than -80C.  However, microwave data\r\nshows that the convection under the overcast is asymmetric and\r\noccurring mainly south of the center.  Subjective and objective\r\nDvorak estimates are unchanged and the initial intensity remains\r\n80 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/7.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern\r\nportion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next\r\n3 days or so. The track guidance for this part of the forecast has\r\nchanged little since the last advisory, with all of the models\r\nand the official forecast keeping the center offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  However, as mentioned in the previous\r\npackage, only a slight deviation to the right of the track would\r\nbring hurricane-force winds to the coast.  After 3 days, there\r\ncontinues to be a large spread in the guidance, with the GFS and\r\nNAVGEM calling for Norbert to recurve toward the northeast, while\r\nthe ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models forecasting it to stall west\r\nof the northern Baja California peninsula.  This part of the\r\nforecast again compromises between these extremes by showing a slow\r\nnorthward motion.\r\n\r\nNorbert should weaken during the forecast period as it moves over\r\ngradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and interacts with\r\nland.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nforecast in showing Norbert weakening to a tropical storm in about\r\n48 hours and degenerating to a remnant low by 96-120 hours.  The\r\nintensity forecast generally lies between the SHIPS model and the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days.  Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 22.5N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 23.4N 112.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 24.4N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 25.3N 114.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 26.1N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 28.5N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/0600Z 29.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern continues to be fairly well organized with a large\r\narea of deep convection near the center and an eye feature noted in\r\nmicrowave data. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have\r\nchanged little and still support an initial intensity of 80 kt.\r\n\r\nNorbert is moving over an area of above normal sea surface\r\ntemperatures and within an environment of low shear, so there is no\r\nreason for the cyclone to change much in intensity today. After that\r\ntime, the circulation will gradually begin to move over cooler\r\nwaters and into a more stable environment, resulting in a gradual\r\nweakening. Norbert's slow motion over cold water parallel to the\r\nBaja California Peninsula will tend to limit the cyclone's impact\r\nnorth of the current warning area. The new NHC forecast is similar\r\nto the previous one and follows the intensity consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nNorbert has been wobbling during the past 12 to 24 hours, but the\r\naverage motion is toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The\r\ncyclone is expected to continue on this general track around\r\nthe mid-level ridge over Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days.\r\nThereafter, the steering currents are forecast to weaken as a\r\ntrough in the westerlies swings by to the north of Norbert. The\r\ncyclone should then slow down and begin to meander. There is high\r\nconfidence in the first 3 days of the forecast since guidance is\r\ntightly clustered. After that time, there is less confidence due to\r\nthe large spread in model tracks, but the general trend is either\r\nlittle motion or a slow turn toward the northeast. By then, Norbert\r\nis expected to be a weak tropical storm or a remnant low.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days.  Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 23.2N 112.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 24.1N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 25.0N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 25.8N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 28.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 29.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1200Z 30.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014\r\n\r\nEven though Norbert's cloud pattern remains fairly well organized in\r\nsatellite imagery, cloud top temperatures in the central dense\r\novercast have been slowly warming since this morning. Nevertheless,\r\nan Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported maximum\r\nflight-level winds of 92 kt and peak SFMR winds of 76 kt in the\r\nnortheastern quadrant, with a minimum pressure of 966 mb. These data\r\nsupport an initial intensity estimate of 80 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nWhile Norbert will be moving over above-normal SSTs of 27-29 deg C\r\nwest of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day\r\nor so, some northeasterly shear and an influx of drier and more\r\nstable air over the western part of circulation should contribute to\r\na slow weakening. After that time, Norbert should reach\r\nsubstantially cooler waters and other thermodynamic variables should\r\nbecome much less favorable. These negative factors should result in\r\na near-rapid weakening of the cyclone in 2-3 days, and remnant low\r\nstatus is forecast in 3 days. Encountering even cooler waters on\r\nday 4-5 and an increase in shear, Norbert should spin down further\r\nand dissipate just beyond the end of the forecast period. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast has not changed from the previous one and is near\r\nthe multi-model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nSatellite and aircraft fixes indicate an initial motion toward the\r\nnorthwest or 325/7 kt. Some re-building of the mid-level ridge to\r\nthe north of Norbert should cause a slight bend of the track toward\r\nthe left during the next day or two.  After that time, Norbert is\r\nexpected to reach the western edge of the ridge and encounter a\r\nweakness caused by a mid-latitude trough advancing eastward from\r\noffshore of the California coast.  This synoptic pattern should\r\nresult in a gradual northward turn during with some decrease in\r\nforward speed. The mid-level center of the cyclone is likely to move\r\nrapidly northeastward into the southwestern United States on days\r\n3-4, leaving the low-level center meandering offshore the west-\r\ncentral Baja California peninsula until dissipation. The NHC\r\nforecast track is little changed from the previous one, and lies on\r\nthe far eastern side of the guidance envelope and east of the multi-\r\nmodel consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane-force wind radii have expanded in the northeastern\r\nquadrant based on SFMR data from the aircraft and now extend out 40\r\nn mi from the center. Any deviation to the right of the forecast\r\ntrack would bring hurricane conditions onshore in the hurricane\r\nwarning area.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days. Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 23.6N 112.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 24.3N 113.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 25.8N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 26.5N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 28.4N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 29.2N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1800Z 29.5N 117.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Norbert has improved dramatically\r\nsince the last advisory. A ragged eye is apparent in infrared\r\nimagery surrounded by a ring of cloud tops colder than -70C. Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB at 00Z were T5.5/102 kt, and the initial\r\nintensity is set a bit below that value at 95 kt for this advisory\r\ngiven the very rapid change in the satellite appearance and the\r\nearlier recon data. This recent intensification occurred as Norbert\r\nmoved over waters warmer than 29C, and some additional strengthening\r\nis still possible in the next few hours. However, SSTs steadily\r\ndecrease along the track going forward, which should result in\r\ngradual weakening beginning by 12 hours. Steadier weakening is\r\nexpected beyond 24 hours as SSTs fall below 26C and the cyclone\r\nmoves into a drier and more stable airmass. By 72 hours Norbert is\r\nexpected to become post-tropical and then weaken to a remnant low\r\naround day 4. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted\r\nupward by 10-15 kt through 24 hours to account for the current\r\nintensity trend, and is about 5 kt higher than the previous advisory\r\nafter that time. This forecast is a little above the intensity\r\nconsensus through 36 hours and close to the consensus afterward.\r\n\r\nSmoothing through some short-term wobbles, the initial motion\r\nestimate is 320/08. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged,\r\nas Norbert will be steered around the western periphery of a mid-\r\nlevel ridge centered over the southern United States through 48\r\nhours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a mid-latitude trough\r\nmoves into the U.S. West Coast. This should result in a weakening of\r\nthe steering currents, leaving the low-level center of Norbert to\r\ndrift slowly northward or move erratically at the end of the\r\nforecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one, but has been adjusted a little to the east to account\r\nfor the initial position and motion. This track is close to the\r\nTVCE multi-model consensus through 72 hours, and shows little net\r\nmotion after that time.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days. Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 24.2N 112.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 24.9N 113.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 25.6N 114.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 26.5N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 27.3N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 29.0N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0000Z 29.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert continued to rapidly intensify through about 06Z.  Since\r\nthen, the hurricane appears to have peaked in intensity, with the\r\neye becoming less distinct and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall\r\nbecoming asymmetric.  Satellite intensity estimates at 06Z were 115\r\nkt from TAFB and 102 kt from SAB, while the CIMMS ADT estimates\r\npeaked at 110 kt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 105 kt as a compromise between these estimates and the\r\ndecay of the cloud pattern since 06Z.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 315/7.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains unchanged, as Norbert will be steered around the western\r\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United\r\nStates through 48 hours. After that time, the ridge weakens as a\r\nmid-latitude trough moves into the U.S. West Coast, which should\r\nresult in a weakening of the steering currents.  The track guidance\r\nhas come into better agreement that Norbert should move\r\nnortheastward or eastward after 72 hours, with several of the models\r\nshowing the remnants making landfall over the northern portion of\r\nthe Baja California peninsula.  The new forecast track reflects this\r\nchange in the guidance by showing an northeastward and eastward\r\ndrift after 72 hours.  The new forecast track is a little to the\r\nright of the center of the guidance envelope through 48 hours, and\r\nafter that it is slower than the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe forecast track takes Norbert over steadily decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures.  The cyclone should thus weaken through the\r\nforecast period.  Despite the higher initial intensity compared to\r\n6 hours ago, the guidance is in good agreement that Norbert should\r\ndecay into a remnant low in about 3 days.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is increased from that of the previous forecast through 36\r\nhours, and then is similar to the previous forecast.  The new\r\nforecast is in best agreement with the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days. Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 24.6N 113.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 25.2N 114.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 26.0N 115.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 26.9N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 27.8N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 29.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 30.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0600Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014\r\n\r\nFirst visible images reveal a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep\r\nconvection. Nevertheless, after a rapid intensification observed on\r\nsatellite last night, objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers are\r\ndecreasing, and only support an initial intensity of 100 kt. A\r\nportion of the circulation is already reaching cooler waters and\r\nmoving into a more stable environment. This should result in a\r\ngradual weakening during the next 24 hours, with a faster rate of\r\nweakening thereafter. Norbert is expected to become a remnant low\r\nover the cold waters just west of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula in 3 days or so.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\r\n310 degrees at 7 knots. Norbert is forecast to be steered by the\r\nflow around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge\r\ncentered over the southwestern United States. In a 48 hours, the\r\ncyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude westerlies and\r\nwill begin to move northward and then northeastward. By then,\r\nNorbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone, moving little\r\nin a weak low-level flow. There is high confidence in the short-\r\nterm track forecast since there is a good guidance agreement. Beyond\r\n3 days, global models either forecast Norbert to dissipate in situ\r\nnear the west coast of the northern Baja California peninsula or\r\ncontinue to move the system eastward as a weak low or a trough. The\r\nNHC prefers the former global model solution.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days. Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 25.0N 114.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 25.6N 115.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 26.5N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 27.3N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 28.2N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/1200Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014\r\n\r\nThe eye continues to be evident on visible images, but the\r\nconvection is not as deep as it was earlier. In fact, the strongest\r\nconvection is limited to the southern semicircle where the ocean is\r\nstill warm. Dvorak T-numbers have continued to decrease, and based\r\non blend of these estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered\r\nto 90 kt. The northern portion of the circulation is already\r\nreaching cooler waters and moving into a more stable environment.\r\nThis should result in steady or even rapid weakening during the next\r\n24 hours, with a slower rate of weakening thereafter as the\r\ncirculation gradually spins down. Norbert is expected to become a\r\nremnant low over the cold waters just west of the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula in 3 days or so.\r\n\r\nNorbert has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 7\r\nknots. It is not necessary to make any significant adjustment to the\r\nprevious forecast track since the global models are not showing any\r\nchanges in the steering flow. As indicated earlier, Norbert is\r\nforecast to move with the flow around the southwestern periphery of\r\na mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern United States. In\r\n48 hours, the cyclone will reach the base of the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies and begin to move northward and then northeastward. By\r\nthen, Norbert is forecast to be a shallow cyclone and will be moving\r\nlittle in a weak low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the trend\r\nindicated by the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days. Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 25.3N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 25.8N 115.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 27.5N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 28.8N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 29.5N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 06 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Norbert has degraded significantly over the\r\npast few hours. The eye is no longer apparent, and in fact there is\r\nno deep convection north of the center where SSTs are below 26C.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial\r\nintensity of 75 kt is based on the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate and\r\nthe Dvorak estimate from SAB. Rapid weakening is expected to\r\ncontinue during the next 24 hours, as the cyclone will move over\r\ncolder waters and into a drier and more stable environment. Norbert\r\nshould then weaken more slowly to remnant low status in 2 to 3 days\r\nover the cold waters west of the northern Baja California peninsula.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nNorbert has jogged a bit to the left over the past few hours, with\r\nan initial motion estimate of 300/07. The synoptic reasoning for the\r\ntrack forecast remains unchanged. Norbert will be steered around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the\r\nsouthwestern United States, which should result in a turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest by 24 hours. By 48 hours, Norbert should turn\r\nnorthward as it moves into a break in the ridge at the base of a\r\nmid-latitude trough off the U.S. West Coast. A slow northeastward\r\nmotion is shown late in the period as the shallow cyclone will be\r\nembedded in weak low-level flow. The new NHC track is similar to the\r\nprevious one adjusted for the initial position and motion.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on data from a\r\nrecent ASCAT-B pass.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days. Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 25.5N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 25.9N 116.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 26.9N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 27.9N 117.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 28.8N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 29.7N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 30.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Norbert","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has continued to decrease significantly since the\r\nprevious advisory, and only a small area of thunderstorms exists\r\nnear the center and in the southeastern quadrant now. Due to the\r\nrapid erosion of the convection, satellite intensity estimates have\r\nsharply decreased, and the initial intensity of 65 kt is a\r\nconservative blend of the TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates.\r\n\r\nNorbert's initial motion estimate is 290/08, a little to the left\r\nof the previous advisory motion. No significant changes were made\r\nto the previous forecast track, and the forecast philosophy remains\r\nbasically unchanged. During the next 72 hours, Norbert is expected\r\nto move slowly northwestward and then northward around the western\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge located over the southwestern United\r\nStates. As the cyclone weakens over colder water, the low-level\r\ncirculation is expected to remain behind to the west of the high\r\nmountain ranges across northern Baja California, while the mid- and\r\nupper-level circulation decouples and moves northeastward into the\r\nsouthwestern United States. The official track forecast is similar\r\nto the previous advisory track, and closely follows the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nNorbert is currently located over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures,\r\nand the cyclone will be moving over even colder water and into a\r\ndrier and more stable air mass during the next 72 hours. The result\r\nis that rapid weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, with\r\nNorbert becoming a non-convective remnant low to the west of the\r\nnorthern Baja California Peninsula in 36 hours or so. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close the latest IVCN multi-model consensus\r\nand follows the rapid weakening trend indicated by the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being\r\nadvected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across\r\nnorthern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could\r\nresult in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these\r\nareas during the next few days. Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 25.7N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 26.4N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 27.4N 117.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 28.3N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 29.0N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 29.7N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 29.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has been decreasing quickly during the last several\r\nhours, and only a small area of cold cloud tops remains to the\r\nsouth of the center.  Satellite intensity estimates are falling, and\r\nthe initial wind speed is lowered to 50 kt using an average of the\r\nDvorak CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The quick weakening\r\nof Norbert is due to the influence of cool waters of around 25 C and\r\na dry stable air mass.  These factors will become even more\r\nunfavorable along the expected track of Norbert, and should cause\r\nthe cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 24 hours, or\r\nmaybe even sooner. Once Norbert becomes a remnant low, the cyclone\r\nis expected to slowly spin down and then open into a trough in about\r\n4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one,\r\nmainly due to the observed rate of weakening.\r\n\r\nNorbert is still moving west-northwestward, but it is expected to\r\nturn toward the northwest and then north during the next day or so\r\nwhen it feels the influence of a deep-layer trough west of\r\nCalifornia.  A slow down and turn toward the northeast or east is\r\nexpected after that time when the shallow system is steered by the\r\nlow-level flow toward the Baja California peninsula.  No significant\r\nchange was made to the previous track forecast, and it lies close to\r\nthe GFS/ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough the system is weakening quickly, tropical moisture\r\nassociated with Norbert and the Pacific ITCZ will continue to\r\nspread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United\r\nStates.  This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash\r\nflooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 26.0N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 26.9N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 27.9N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 29.1N 117.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 29.5N 116.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014\r\n\r\nA small patch of deep convection has been lingering just west\r\nof the center of Norbert during the last several hours.  Although\r\nthe cyclone is producing little deep convection, its circulation\r\nremains well established.  An ASCAT pass around 1800 UTC showed\r\nmaximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range, and the initial intensity\r\nis lowered to 45 kt based on that data and the Dvorak CI-numbers\r\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.  Norbert is currently over sea surface\r\ntemperatures of around 25 C and is embedded in a stable air mass, as\r\nindicated by the large field of stratocumulus clouds to the west of\r\nthe storm.  These unfavorable conditions should cause Norbert to\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and open into a trough in 3\r\nto 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous\r\none, and follows the global model guidance.\r\n\r\nNorbert is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial\r\nmotion estimate is 300/7.  A turn toward the north is expected\r\nduring the next 24 hours as the cyclone becomes influenced by a\r\ndeep-layer trough to the west of California.  After that time, a\r\nturn to the northeast or east toward the Baja California\r\npeninsula is predicted when the remnant low becomes steered by the\r\nweak low-level flow.  Little change was made to the previous track\r\nforecast, and this one is between the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nAlthough Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue\r\nto spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern\r\nUnited States.  This could result in heavy rains and life-\r\nthreatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two.\r\nPlease see information from your local weather office for more\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 26.5N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 27.2N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 28.1N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 28.7N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 29.1N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 29.5N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norbert","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014\r\n\r\nNorbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the\r\npast several hours.  Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in\r\nthe circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a\r\npost-tropical cyclone soon.  Based on a slow spin down of the\r\nmaximum winds analyzed from the ASCAT overpass from earlier today,\r\nthe current intensity is set at 40 kt.   Since the system has a\r\nsubstantial circulation, it should take a couple of days to\r\ndissipate.  The official wind speed forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one, and anticipates that the system will be very weak by\r\nthe time it nears the north-central Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone's heading is gradually turning to the right, and the\r\ninitial motion is now 320/6.  A mid-level trough near California\r\nshould cause Norbert, or the remnant low, to turn toward the north\r\nand northeast during the next couple of days.  By 48-72 hours, the\r\nweak cyclone will likely move slowly east-northeastward within the\r\nlow-level flow.  The official track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and essentially splits the difference between the\r\nlatest GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks.\r\n\r\nAlthough Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue\r\nto spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern\r\nUnited States.  This could result in heavy rains and life-\r\nthreatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two.\r\nPlease see information from your local weather office for more\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 27.1N 117.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 27.7N 118.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 29.0N 117.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 29.2N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 29.5N 115.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Norbert","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP142014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142014\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014\r\n\r\nThere has been no organized deep convection within Norbert's\r\ncirculation for more than 12 hours now, so the system is being\r\ndeclared a post-tropical cyclone.  The initial wind speed is lowered\r\nto 35 kt in basic agreement with a 0524 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that\r\nindicated wind vectors of around 32 kt in the southwestern quadrant.\r\nSince Norbert is expected to move over even cooler waters, it is\r\npresumed that a faster rate of decay should occur during the next\r\ncouple of days, with dissipation forecast in 2-3 days. The official\r\nwind speed forecast shows slightly faster weakening than the\r\nprevious one, with the expectation that the remnant low of Norbert\r\nwill be very weak when it approaches the north-central Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.\r\n\r\nNorbert has been moving northwestward or 320/5 kt.  The post-\r\ntropical cyclone should turn toward the north and northeast during\r\nthe next couple of days ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough advancing\r\neastward offshore of the California coast. In 2-3 days, the shallow\r\nremnant circulation should be pushed east-northeastward or eastward\r\nby the low-level flow toward the coast of the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula prior to dissipation.  The official track\r\nforecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in best\r\nagreement with the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nAlthough Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture should continue to\r\nspread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United\r\nStates.  This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash\r\nflooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Norbert.  For future information on the post-tropical cyclone,\r\nplease see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\r\nService under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 27.4N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 27.7N 118.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 28.5N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 29.0N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 29.3N 116.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased in association with the area of low\r\npressure located southwest of Acapulco, and the system is now\r\ndesignated a tropical depression. The convective pattern consists of\r\na large area of tops colder than -80C west of the center and some\r\ncurved bands forming to the north. The initial intensity of 30 kt is\r\nbased on data from a pair of ASCAT passes between 0300 and 0500 UTC.\r\nThe SHIPS model shows moderate easterly to northeasterly shear over\r\nthe cyclone, consistent with the location of the low-level center on\r\nthe eastern edge of the convective canopy as shown by the ASCAT\r\ndata.\r\n\r\nThe shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, which\r\nshould result in gradual strengthening as the cyclone is situated\r\nover very warm SSTs around 30C. By 48 hours, the shear is expected\r\nto decrease, allowing the cyclone to take better advantage of the\r\nfavorable oceanic conditions and intensify more quickly. There is\r\nconsiderable spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS model is\r\nthe most aggressive, showing the system reaching 90 kt by 72 hours.\r\nThe HWRF shows quick strengthening in the short term, but then\r\nweakens the cyclone due to land interaction. The GFDL model also\r\nshows land interaction and a weaker solution. Given that the NHC\r\ntrack keeps the center offshore, the official intensity forecast\r\nwill be above the intensity consensus but below the SHIPS model,\r\nshowing the cyclone reaching 70 kt in 72 hours and peaking at 80 kt\r\nat days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a north-northwestward drift, as the depression\r\nis situated in a region of weak steering south of a mid-level ridge.\r\nThe western part of the ridge will gradually erode over the next 48\r\nto 72 hours, which should allow the deepening cyclone to begin\r\nmoving slowly northwestward to north-northwestward. Later in the\r\nperiod, the cyclone should accelerate northwestward as the ridge\r\nstrengthens to the east. While overall the guidance is in general\r\nagreement on this scenario, there are significant detail differences\r\nthat will determine how close the system comes to the coast of\r\nsouthwestern Mexico in 72 to 96 hours. The ECMWF shows more\r\ninteraction with an upper-low retrograding westward across Mexico\r\nand pulls the cyclone farther to the east and closer to the coast.\r\nOn the other hand, the GFS has a track farther offshore showing\r\nless influence from the upper-level low and more interaction with\r\nthe disturbance currently situated about 1,000 miles west-southwest\r\nof the depression. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models through the period and is a little slower than and\r\nleft of the TVCE consensus at days 4 and 5. Given the present weak\r\nsteering currents and and spread of the model guidance, confidence\r\nin the details of the track forecast is lower than usual.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of\r\nsouthwestern Mexico later today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 14.4N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 14.7N 102.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.0N 102.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 15.4N 102.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 16.9N 103.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 23.0N 109.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased to the west of the center during the\r\npast few hours, and microwave images show increasing organization\r\nof the low-level center.  Dvorak classifications were 3.0/45 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and 2.0/30 kt from SAB.  Using a blend of these estimates\r\nyields an initial wind speed of 35 kt, making the cyclone Tropical\r\nStorm Odile.\r\n\r\nOdile has been moving slowly northwestward for the last several\r\nhours, and a continued northwestward or north-northwestward drift\r\nis forecast during the next day or two while the cyclone remains in\r\nweak steering currents.  In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone is anticipated\r\nto feel more influence from mid-level ridging to its north and\r\nnortheast, and that should cause Odile to move at a faster pace\r\nto the northwest.  Although the models are in fair agreement on\r\nthis overall scenario, the big question is how close to the\r\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico does the center of the storm get.  The\r\nECMWF and HWRF models are on the right side of the guidance and\r\nbring the center of Odile very near or over the coast of\r\nsouthwestern Mexico.  Conversely, the GFS and GFS ensemble mean,\r\nwhich are on the left side of the guidance, keep the center of Odile\r\nwell offshore.  The NHC track forecast is again between these\r\nsolutions and brings Odile just off of southwestern Mexico in\r\n3 to 4 days, and near the southern Baja peninsula by the end of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nSteady strengthening is expected for at least the next few days\r\nwhile the storm remains in low to moderate shear, a highly moist\r\nenvironment, and over very warm 30 C water.  The only limiting\r\nfactor could be land interaction.  The NHC intensity forecast shows\r\na slightly faster rate of strengthening than the previous one, but\r\nis lower than the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of\r\nsouthwestern Mexico later today.  Regardless, locally heavy rains\r\nare possible across that area later this week.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 14.9N 102.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 15.1N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.3N 103.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.5N 103.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 15.9N 103.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 17.6N 104.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 20.9N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014\r\n\r\nOdile is currently showing the effects of about 15 kt of\r\nnortheasterly vertical wind shear, with the low-level center partly\r\nexposed on the northeastern edge of the main area of convection.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates remain 45 kt from TAFB and 30 kt from\r\nSAB.  Based on these data, the initial intensity remains a possibly\r\nconservative 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 320/5.  The various large-scale models\r\nsuggest that Odile will be caught in an area of weak steering\r\ncurrents for the next 2-3 days, with a slow and erratic motion\r\nexpected during this time.  After that, a mid-level ridge north of\r\nthe cyclone should strengthen some and steer the cyclone toward the\r\nnorthwest at a faster forward speed.  There are two notable changes\r\nto the guidance since the last advisory.  First, most of the\r\nguidance suggests a westward or southwestward motion during the\r\nfirst 36 hours or so.  Second, the overall guidance envelope has\r\nshifted to the left.  This includes the latest ECMWF model, which\r\nforecasts a track farther from the coast of Mexico than its previous\r\nrun.  The new forecast track is shifted to the left in response to\r\nthese changes, although it lies to the right of the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.  It should be noted that the GFDL and HWRF\r\nmodels are still to the right of the new forecast, showing a track\r\nclose to mainland Mexico.\r\n\r\nOdile is expected to remain in an area of moderate shear for the\r\nnext 24 hours or so, after which the large-scale models suggest the\r\nshear should diminish.  This should allow at least steady\r\nstrengthening until the cyclone reaches colder water near the end of\r\nthe forecast period.  An alternative forecast scenario, supported by\r\nthe SHIPS and GFS models, is that Odile undergoes rapid\r\nintensification after 24-36 hours when the shear diminishes.  The\r\nnew intensity forecast shows an increased intensity after 36 hours\r\nin best general agreement with the intensity consensus.  However, it\r\nis well below the SHIPS model, which forecasts Odile to be a major\r\nhurricane by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm watch could be needed for a portion of the coast of\r\nsouthwestern Mexico tonight.  Regardless, locally heavy rains\r\nare possible across that area later this week.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 15.3N 103.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 15.5N 103.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 15.7N 103.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 15.8N 103.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 16.2N 104.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 17.5N 105.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 20.5N 108.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 24.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 10 2014\r\n\r\nOdile's low-level center remains exposed on the northeastern edge\r\nof the deep convection due to about 15 kt of north-northeasterly\r\nshear.  The Dvorak satellite estimate from TAFB is still 45 kt,\r\nwhile the estimate from SAB has increased to 35 kt, so the initial\r\nintensity is raised to 40 kt.  The vertical shear is expected to\r\ngradually abate during the next 24 or so, which should allow Odile\r\nto steadily strengthen.  After that time, low shear and very warm\r\nwaters should support a faster rate of intensification, and Odile\r\nis forecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours.  The SHIPS\r\nmodel is still the most aggressive intensity model, showing Odile\r\nreaching major hurricane status by day 3.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is very close to an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models\r\nand is only a little higher than the previous forecast at days 3\r\nand 4.\r\n\r\nOdile is slowing down in weak steering flow, and the initial motion\r\nestimate is 310/3 kt.  The cyclone is expected to remain in\r\nthis environment for another 48 hours and will likely meander or\r\ndrift generally west-northwestward during this time.  By day 3, a\r\nmid-level high over the northern Gulf of Mexico is forecast to\r\nexpand westward over Mexico and cause Odile to accelerate toward\r\nthe northwest through the end of the forecast period.  The track\r\nguidance has again shifted westward on this cycle, and now all of\r\nthe models, except for the GFDL, bring the center of Odile west of\r\nthe Baja California peninsula on days 4 and 5.  The updated NHC\r\ntrack forecast lies to the west of the previous forecast and the\r\nmodel consensus TVCE, especially after 48 hours.  However, the most\r\nreliable global models, the GFS and ECMWF, are even farther west,\r\nand additional adjustments to the NHC forecast may be required on\r\nfuture advisories.\r\n\r\nEven though the forecast track has shifted a little further away\r\nfrom the Mexican coast, there is a lot of uncertainty about how big\r\nOdile's wind field will get in a couple of days.  Most of the\r\nguidance shows a significant increase in the 34-kt wind radii, and\r\non this basis, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm\r\nwatch for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Lazaro Cardenas to\r\nManzanillo.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 15.6N 103.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 15.6N 104.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 15.7N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 16.2N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 21.0N 110.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 24.0N 113.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nOdile has a classic shear pattern in infrared imagery, with the\r\ncenter located along a very sharp gradient in cloud top temperatures\r\non the northeast side of the main convective cloud mass. Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.0/45 kt, and that is the\r\ninitial intensity for this advisory. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS\r\nsatellite analysis show moderate northeasterly shear affecting the\r\ncyclone, and this should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This\r\nshear will likely keep Odile from intensifying too quickly despite\r\notherwise favorable conditions. After that time, the shear should\r\nlessen and steadier intensification is expected. The SHIPS model\r\ncontinues to have the most aggressive forecast, and shows Odile\r\nreaching major hurricane intensity in about 72 hours. The official\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and is roughly between the\r\nSHIPS model and the IVCN consensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/02, as Odile appears to have been\r\ndrifting westward over the past few hours. Steering currents will\r\nremain weak for the next 24 to 36 hours, and during this time much\r\nof the GFS-based guidance now shows Odile making a small cyclonic\r\nloop with some southward component of motion. The ECMWF shows little\r\nmotion during the first 24 hours, and a northwestward motion\r\nstarting by 36 hours. The NHC forecast during the first 36 hours is\r\na blend of these solutions and shows a slow westward drift, although\r\nsome erratic motion is possible during this time. After 36 hours,\r\nOdile will come under the influence of a building subtropical ridge\r\nto its northeast, which should result in an acceleration toward the\r\nnorthwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance\r\nremains in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the\r\nGFDL, which continues to be a right outlier. The new NHC track\r\nforecast is a little to the left of the previous one, in part due to\r\nthe initial position and motion. The NHC forecast is close to the\r\nECMWF solution after 48 hours and is a little to the left of the\r\nTVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 15.5N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 15.5N 104.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 15.5N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 15.5N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 16.1N 105.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 21.5N 111.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nEarly morning GOES-E visible images and an 1148 UTC SSMIS microwave\r\noverpass indicate that the 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear continues\r\nto displace the surface circulation to the northeast of the\r\nconvective canopy.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity\r\nestimates are unchanged, and so is the initial intensity of 45 kt.\r\nStatistical and dynamical guidance agrees with the shear persisting\r\nduring the next 24 hours or so.  After that time, the upper wind\r\npattern becomes conducive for intensification through the remainder\r\nof the forecast period.  The intensity forecast is basically an\r\nupdate from the previous forecast, but now reflects strengthening to\r\na major hurricane at the 96 hour period, which is supported by the\r\nSHIPS intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/02, which is confirmed by the\r\nfortuitous microwave image.  This westward drift is should\r\ncontinue during the next 24 hours, although the motion could be\r\nsomewhat erratic, possibly a slight jog to the southwest as\r\nindicated by a number of the deterministic models.  Afterwards, the\r\ncyclone should begin a northwestward motion in response to a\r\nmid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  Odile will maintain a northwestward track and\r\naccelerate through day 5 which agrees with the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus and the ECMWF/GFS (GFEX) blend.  The official forecast is\r\nclose to the previous advisory and sides with the aforementioned\r\nTVCE and GFEX consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 15.3N 104.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 15.4N 104.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 15.4N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 15.7N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 16.4N 105.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 19.0N 108.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 22.0N 112.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows a sheared tropical storm with\r\nthe center of circulation just beneath the northeastern edge of the\r\ndeep convective cloud canopy.  Although the shear appears to have\r\nincreased a bit this afternoon, convective spiral banding features\r\nhave become better organized, and a blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates reflect this overall improvement.\r\nSubsequently, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt.  The\r\nintensity forecast remains unchanged for this advisory with the\r\nnortheasterly shear relaxing in 24-36 hours.  Through the remaining\r\nportion of the forecast, the global models and the SHIPS intensity\r\nmodel indicate an upper-wind environment conducive for strengthening\r\nthrough day 5.  The official intensity forecast shows this\r\nintensification trend with Odile becoming a major hurricane in 3\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is slightly left of the previous track and is\r\nestimated to be toward the west-southwest or 255/02.  This general\r\nmotion, although somewhat erratic, should continue during the\r\nnext 12-24 hours at which time Odile should begin a northwestward\r\nmotion in response to a mid-level ridge building to the northeast\r\nof the cyclone.  Odile is forecast to maintain this northwestward\r\ntrack with a gradual increase in forward speed through the\r\nremainder of the forecast period.  The official NHC forecast is\r\nagain shifted a bit to the left of the previous forecast track\r\nand splits between the TVCE and GFEX dynamical consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 15.1N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 15.1N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 15.3N 105.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 15.7N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 16.6N 106.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 19.4N 110.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 22.2N 113.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 24.0N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nStrong northeasterly shear continues to push nearly all of Odile's\r\ndeep convection to the southwest of its center.  The cyclone\r\nactually appears a little less organized than it did earlier today,\r\nand Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased from both TAFB and SAB.\r\nFor now, however, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on\r\nan average of the CI numbers.  The northeasterly shear over Odile\r\nis being caused by the flow on the west side of an upper-level low\r\nlocated over eastern Mexico.  This feature is forecast to move\r\nwestward, which should cause the shear over Odile to finally\r\ndecrease in about 24 hours.  Gradual strengthening is still forecast\r\nduring that time, but lower shear should support a faster rate of\r\nintensification after 24 hours.  The current shear has decreased\r\nthe amount of time that Odile has for significant strengthening,\r\nand the intensity models have responded by showing much lower peak\r\nintensities in a few days.  The updated NHC forecast has been\r\nadjusted downward for the entire forecast period and is near the\r\nSHIPS model solution, which is the highest of the reliable guidance.\r\n\r\nOdile has been meandering during the past few hours, and the\r\nestimated 12-hour average motion is 295/2 kt.  The sheared nature\r\nof the cyclone could cause the center to continue meandering, but\r\noverall Odile should drift westward or northwestward during the\r\nnext 24 hours.  After that time, a strengthening mid-level ridge\r\nover Mexico is expected to cause the storm to accelerate\r\nnorthwestward through day 5.  The track models have changed little\r\non this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is mainly an update\r\nof the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 15.5N 104.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 15.8N 105.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 16.4N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 17.5N 107.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 20.4N 111.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 24.5N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection has recently redeveloped closer to the center of\r\nOdile, as the shear is perhaps beginning to weaken a bit over the\r\ncyclone. Data from two ASCAT passes and a blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB support maintaining the initial\r\nintensity at 50 kt. The SHIPS model shows the vertical shear\r\ngradually decreasing over the cyclone during the next day or so,\r\nwhich should allow for gradual intensification in the next 12 hours\r\nand steadier strengthening after that time. The intensity guidance\r\ncontinues to trend lower this cycle, and the NHC forecast has again\r\nbeen adjusted downward, but still shows Odile becoming a hurricane\r\nin about 24 hours and reaching a peak intensity of 85 kt in 72\r\nhours. Late in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler\r\nwaters, which should result in steady weakening. The NHC forecast is\r\nabove the latest IVCN consensus and is close to the SHIPS model at\r\n36 hours and beyond.\r\n\r\nOdile has moved little since the previous advisory, as the cyclone\r\nremains in a region of weak steering currents. The best estimate of\r\nthe initial motion is a westward drift at 2 kt. A slow westward to\r\nwest-northwestward drift is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,\r\nfollowed by a gradual acceleration toward the northwest as a\r\nmid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. Overall,\r\nthe track guidance remains in general agreement on this scenario,\r\nbut much of the guidance has shifted to the right at days 4 and 5.\r\nThe new NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction and is\r\nclose to the EMCWF at the end of the period, but now lies to the\r\nleft of the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from\r\nthe aforementioned ASCAT passes, which show a large wind field in\r\nthe southern semicircle.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 15.5N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.4N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.6N 105.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 16.4N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 17.8N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 20.9N 112.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 23.5N 115.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 25.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nA recent SSMIS microwave overpass and Dvorak infrared BD-curve\r\nenhancement imagery show that deep convection, with associated -80C\r\ndegree cloud tops, continues to form over the surface center,\r\nindicative of the subsiding northeasterly shear. A blend of the\r\nsubjective intensity estimates yields an increased initial intensity\r\nof 55 kt.  It's worth noting that the SHIPS model indicates an\r\ninitial vertical shear of 17 kt, while the UW-CIMSS shear analysis\r\nonly shows only about 5-10 kt of shear. Additionally, GOES-13\r\nsatellite-derived 100-350 mb winds indicate a more diffluent\r\npattern over the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is basically an\r\nupdate with only a slight increase adjustment through 48 hours to\r\nreflect the increasingly more favorable upper-level wind\r\nenvironment.\r\n\r\nOdile continues to drift westward this morning within weak mid-level\r\nsteering flow.  Large-scale models continue to be in excellent\r\nagreement with a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and\r\nthe Baja California peninsula beyond the 24 hour period.  Odile is\r\nexpected to gradually accelerate northwestward through the remaining\r\nportion of the forecast in response to this change in the synoptic\r\nsteering pattern.  The NHC official forecast is very close to the\r\nprevious advisory and is based on a blend of the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus with emphasis on the ECMWF global model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 15.5N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.6N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 16.0N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 16.9N 107.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 18.5N 109.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 21.6N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 23.8N 115.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery indicates that the northerly shear\r\nhas shifted westward in tandem with the upper-level low over\r\ncentral Mexico, and is impeding the entire western portion of\r\nOdile.  TAFB and SAB current intensity estimates are 45 and 65 kt\r\nrespectively, and the objective ADT intensity estimate is 57 kt.  As\r\na compromise, the initial intensity remains at 55 kt.  The\r\nupper-level low over central Mexico is weakening and slowly lifting\r\nnorthwestward which should allow the cyclone to be in a more\r\nconducive environment with a more diffluent pattern aloft\r\nand decreased shear.  Therefore, strengthening is expected during\r\nthe next 48 hours or so.  Beyond that time, Odile will be traversing\r\ncooler sea surface temperatures, which should induce a steady\r\nweakening trend.  The intensity forecast is an update of this\r\nmorning's advisory and is near the SHIPS statistical/dynamical\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nOdile has temporarily halted, but the 12-hour averaged motion is a\r\nwestward drift at 2 kt.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over\r\nnorthern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula during the next\r\nseveral days, which is expected to cause Odile to accelerate\r\nnorthwestward through day 5.  The dynamical guidance remains\r\nrelatively unchanged on this forecast synoptic pattern, and the new\r\nofficial forecast is basically an update of the previous package.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 15.6N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 15.7N 105.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 16.4N 106.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 19.3N 109.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 22.4N 112.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 24.0N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nWhile the center of Odile is still outside of the main convective\r\narea, the cyclone has recently developed a strong curved convective\r\nband over the eastern semicircle.  This suggests that the vertical\r\nwind shear is decreasing.  The various subjective and objective\r\nsatellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 65 kt, and there has\r\nbeen little change in these estimates since the last advisory.\r\nBased on this, the initial intensity remains 55 kt.  The cirrus\r\noutflow is improving and is now good to excellent in all directions\r\nexcept the north.\r\n\r\nOdile has started a slow northwestward motion of 315/3 during the\r\npast several hours.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over\r\nnorthern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula soon, which is\r\nexpected to cause Odile to accelerate northwestward for the next\r\nseveral days.  The guidance shows a little more spread than before,\r\nand it is also showing a somewhat faster forward speed after 72\r\nhours. The new forecast track is adjusted to the right based on the\r\ncurrent position and motion, and is a little faster than the\r\nprevious forecast after 72 hours.  The new track forecast is in the\r\ncenter of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale models suggest that Odile should be in a light\r\nshear environment for the next 48 hours while the cyclone passes\r\nover sea surface temperatures near 29 deg C.  This should allow\r\nsteady strengthening.  Despite this, most of the intensity guidance\r\nshows less intensification than it did during the previous cycle.\r\nThe intensity forecast still calls for a peak of 90 kt in 48 hours,\r\nbut shows a slower development rate than before. After the peak,\r\nOdile should weaken when it encounters cooler waters.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.2N 105.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.6N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 18.9N 108.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 20.7N 110.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 23.5N 113.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 25.5N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 26.5N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Odile has changed quickly during the\r\npast few hours, and the convective pattern now consists of a CDO\r\npattern with the center underneath the convective canopy. Satellite\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 06Z, and\r\non this basis Odile is upgraded to a hurricane for this advisory.\r\nGiven that the shear has decreased and the cyclone is situated over\r\nSSTs of around 29C, conditions are favorable for at least steady\r\nintensification. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates a 57 percent\r\nchance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. However, most\r\nof the intensity guidance is less aggressive. Also, a TRMM pass\r\naround 04Z suggested that the low-level center was displaced a\r\nlittle to the west of the mid-level center, suggesting that the\r\ninner core of Odile may not be aligned. The NHC intensity forecast\r\nhas been adjusted upward in the short term to account for the\r\nobserved intensification, but still shows a peak at 90 kt in 48\r\nhours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler\r\nwaters and weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is near the high\r\nend of the intensity guidance and is close to the SHIPS model and\r\nthe FSU Superensemble.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/04. Odile should accelerate\r\nnorthwestward today as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast\r\nof the cyclone. However, significant spread develops in the model\r\nguidance after 24 hours, with the latest ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL\r\nsolutions show a track farther to the right, closer to or over\r\nportions of Baja California. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and\r\nHWRF are on the left side of the guidance envelope with a track\r\nwell west of Baja California. These differences appear to be due to\r\nvariability in the western extent of the subtropical ridge north of\r\nOdile and how fast a mid-latitude trough approaches the U.S. West\r\nCoast late in the period. The ECMWF model has shifted sharply to the\r\nright this cycle, with a more progressive trough turning Odile\r\ntoward the north-northwest late in the period. The new NHC track\r\nforecast is an update of the previous one through 48 hours, and is a\r\nlittle to the right of the previous track after that time, close to\r\nthe TVCE consensus and the FSU Superensemble. Given the spread in\r\nthe guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast,\r\nincluding the potential threat to Baja California, is below normal.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm watch has been issued for the southern part of the\r\nBaja California peninsula. Additional watches and/or warnings could\r\nbe needed for portions of Baja California later today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 16.4N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 16.8N 106.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 21.3N 110.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 23.8N 113.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 26.0N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nThe first-light visible satellite images show that Odile has\r\ncontinued to become better organized.  The central dense overcast\r\nhas become much more symmetric with some hints of an eye, which is\r\nconsistent with a TRMM microwave pass from around 1200 UTC.  A blend\r\nof the satellite intensity estimates gives 70 kt as the initial wind\r\nspeed.  Further strengthening seems likely over the next day or so\r\ngiven the very warm waters and low shear.  Steady or even rapid\r\nintensification appears to be most probable during that time, and\r\nthe NHC forecast continues the trend of the last forecast to be\r\nabove almost all of the guidance.  Odile could start to weaken on\r\nMonday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert,\r\nwith generally cooler waters expected after that time. The NHC\r\nforecast is blended with the previous NHC prediction and the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe TRMM pass gives a more confident initial motion estimate of\r\n310/5.  Odile should accelerate northwestward by late today as a\r\nmid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However,\r\nsignificant spread remains in the model guidance near and after 24\r\nhours, with a fair number of models close to Baja California Sur.\r\nThe subtropical ridge strength over the eastern Pacific, along with\r\nany potential interaction with Tropical Depression 16-E, is making\r\nthis forecast rather complicated.  With little change to the\r\nguidance this cycle, the new NHC forecast track will remain close to\r\nthe previous one.   Given the spread in the guidance, confidence\r\nremains below normal in the details of the track forecast, including\r\nthe potential threat to Baja California.  Depending on the 1200 UTC\r\nmodel cycle, additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for\r\nportions of the Baja California peninsula later today.\r\n\r\nMoisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific\r\nITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward\r\nacross Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next\r\nweek.   This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening\r\nflash flooding in those areas.  Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.  This is a similar pattern\r\nwhich occurred early this week with Norbert and the remnants of\r\nDolly.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 16.6N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nOdile is continuing to intensify this afternoon with visible\r\nsatellite pictures showing an intermittent eye.  The latest\r\nintensity estimates are between 77-84 kt, and 80 kt is chosen as\r\nthe initial wind speed.  With the hurricane moving over very warm\r\nwaters within light shear for the next day or so, steady or rapid\r\nintensification seems likely.  Despite the seemingly favorable\r\nenvironment, it is peculiar that none of the deterministic guidance\r\nbrings Odile to a major hurricane.  However, the SHIPS rapid\r\nintensification index shows about a 50/50 shot of Odile having a 30\r\nkt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours.  After\r\nconsidering the environment and the SHIPS-RI guidance, the latest\r\nNHC forecast is above all of the objective guidance during the\r\nfirst 24 hours, and could still be too low.  After that time, Odile\r\nis forecast to weaken by late Monday since it is forecast to\r\npass near the cold wake of Norbert, with cooler waters also expected\r\nafter that time.  The NHC forecast philosophy is the same as the\r\nprevious one, using a blend of the previous interpolated NHC\r\nprediction and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nAfter moving erratically earlier today, Odile appears to be\r\nmoving more steadily to the northwest at about 5 kt.  The hurricane\r\nshould accelerate northwestward by late today due to a ridge\r\nstrengthening over the southern United States.  Guidance has shifted\r\ntoward the northeast, closer to Baja California Sur, with generally\r\nless ridging predicted over northwestern Mexico.  The new forecast\r\nis adjusted in that direction, roughly 30 n mi to the north of the\r\nprevious forecast during Odile's closest approach to Baja California\r\nSur, and is close to a blend of the dynamical model consensus and\r\nthe ECMWF model.  The long-term forecast is also adjusted eastward\r\ncloser to Baja California, reflecting the latest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nA hurricane watch and tropical storm warning has been issued for\r\nportions of Baja California Sur.  A hurricane warning could be\r\nissued later tonight or early tomorrow if the northward trends\r\nin the model guidance continue.\r\n\r\nMoisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific\r\nITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward\r\nacross Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next\r\nweek.   This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening\r\nflash flooding in those areas.  Please see information from your\r\nlocal weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 17.0N 106.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 18.0N 107.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 19.8N 108.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 21.6N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 23.0N 112.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 25.0N 114.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 28.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Odile is undergoing rapid\r\nintensification.  Satellite intensity estimates at 00Z were 90 kt,\r\nwhich is an increase of 35 kt during the last 24 hours.  Since then,\r\nan eye has become apparent in infrared imagery with cloud tops\r\ncolder than -80C in the western eyewall.  The initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 95 kt...and this could be conservative.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has turned to the right and accelerated during the\r\npast several hours.  The initial motion is 335/10, and the motion\r\nover the past 4-5 hours is just west of due north.  Odile should\r\nturn back toward the northwest during the next several hours as it\r\nis steered between a strengthening ridge over the southern United\r\nStates and a mid-level low or trough west of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  The combination of the initial position and motion has\r\nlead to a significant northeastward shift in the track model\r\nguidance, which now calls for the center of Odile to pass near or\r\nover the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula from\r\n36-96 hours. Based on this, the new forecast track is shifted 30-50\r\nn mi to the northeast for the entire forecast period, and it lies\r\njust west of Baja California.  The new forecast track is in the\r\ncenter of the guidance envelope and is in good agreement with the\r\nTVCE consensus model and the Florida State Superensemble.  Further\r\nnortheastward adjustments of the track may be necessary if Odile's\r\nnorthwestward turn occurs later than currently forecast.\r\n\r\nRapid intensification is expected to continue until either the\r\nhurricane undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle or moves over the\r\nwake of cold water left by Hurricane Norbert.  The latter is likely\r\nto occur in about 18 hours.  The forecast peak intensity has been\r\nincreased to 110 kt at the upper edge of the guidance envelope, and\r\nit is possible Odile could get stronger than that.  After 18 hours\r\nor so, the center should move over cooler water, with land\r\ninteraction expected after about 36 hours.  This should lead to a\r\nsteady weakening through the remainder of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe new forecast track requires major changes for the warnings and\r\nwatches for Mexico, and a hurricane warning is now in effect for\r\nthe southern end of the Baja California peninsula.  If Odile strikes\r\nBaja California as a major hurricane, it will be only the fourth\r\ntime since since 1967 that such a hurricane has hit the peninsula.\r\n\r\nIn addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico\r\nand the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's\r\ncirculation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United\r\nStates for early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 17.9N 106.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 19.2N 107.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 21.4N 109.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 23.2N 111.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 24.6N 112.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 29.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nOdile has continue to rapidly strengthen overnight with the eye\r\nbecoming more distinct in infrared satellite imagery. Recent\r\nmicrowave imagery shows a well-defined eye, and a long convection\r\nband that appears to be beginning of a concentric eyewall.\r\nSubjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 115 kt,\r\nand the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is around 105 kt.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial wind speed is increased to 115 kt. Odile is\r\nthe seventh major hurricane to form in the eastern North Pacific\r\nbasin this season, which is only one shy of the record since the\r\nadvent of satellite imagery.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving north-northwestward a little faster than\r\nbefore, with an initial motion of 330 degrees at 13 kt.  Odile\r\nshould turn northwestward today as it is steered around the western\r\nportion of a strengthening ridge over the southern United States.\r\nThe track guidance is tightly clustered during the first 2 to 3 days\r\nof the forecast period and the NHC forecast is near the middle of\r\nthe guidance envelope.  The updated NHC track is very close to the\r\nprevious advisory through 72 hours.  Later in the period, the GFS\r\nand ECMWF show the cyclone continuing northwestward at a slower\r\nforward speed, while some of the models indicate a more\r\nnorth-northwestward or northward motion at days 4 and 5.  The NHC\r\ntrack leans toward the ECMWF and GFS solutions late in the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nWarm water and low shear during the next 12 hours should allow for\r\nsome additional strengthening, but the rate of intensification is\r\nexpected to slow later today.  In addition during the next day or\r\nso, an eyewall replacement cycle could cause some fluctuations in\r\nintensity.  By Monday, the hurricane will be moving over cooler\r\nwater and weakening should begin.  Rapid weakening is likely in a\r\ncouple of days as Odile moves over even colder waters and into a\r\nmore stable airmass as well as potential land interactions.  The\r\nupdated NHC forecast shows a higher peak intensity due to the higher\r\ninitial intensity.  After 24 hours, the NHC forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory and a little below the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as\r\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of\r\nOdile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern\r\nMexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's\r\ncirculation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United\r\nStates by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 19.1N 107.3W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 20.7N 108.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 22.7N 110.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 24.3N 112.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 25.6N 113.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 27.3N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 28.2N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 28.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nAfter rapidly strengthening during the past 24 hours, it appears\r\nthat the intensity of Odile has leveled off for now.  Microwave\r\nimages indicate that the cyclone has a double eyewall structure,\r\nwith the inner eyewall surrounding the 10-15 n mi diameter eye, and\r\nthe outer one located about 40-50 n mi from the center.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates remain 115 kt, and that value is kept for the\r\ninitial wind speed.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is\r\nscheduled to investigate Odile later today, and should provide a\r\nbetter assessment of the strength and structure of this hurricane.\r\n\r\nThe major hurricane is moving northwestward at about 12 kt, steered\r\nby a ridge located to its northeast.  A continued northwestward\r\nmotion is expected during the next 3 to 4 days with a gradual\r\ndecrease in forward speed due to a strengthening trough off the U.S.\r\nwest coast.  By the end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone\r\nis expected to become stationary or drift eastward in the low-level\r\nflow.  The models are tightly clustered for most of the forecast\r\nperiod, and the NHC track forecast is close to the consensus aids.\r\nThis track takes the center of Odile very near the southern Baja\r\nCalifornia west coast later today, and then just offshore\r\nand parallel to the coast for the next several days.\r\n\r\nThe observed concentric eyewall structure, which is fairly common\r\nin mature hurricanes like Odile, typically causes intensity\r\nfluctuations in the short term, and the NHC intensity forecast\r\nshows little change in strength during the next 24 hours.  Odile\r\nwill be moving over cool water and into a drier airmass in 36 to 48\r\nhours.  These unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the\r\ncyclone to quickly weaken. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous one, and not too different than the intensity model\r\nconsensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as\r\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of\r\nOdile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern\r\nMexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's\r\ncirculation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United\r\nStates by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 20.0N 108.2W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 21.7N 109.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 23.5N 111.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 24.9N 112.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 25.9N 113.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 28.1N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 28.3N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nOdile has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle since the\r\nprevious advisory, and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft\r\nhas found an inner eye of about 10-12 nmi diameter and an outer eye\r\nof 36 nmi diameter. Despite this normally unfavorable inner-core\r\nstructure, the central pressure has decreased to 922 mb and the 700-\r\nmb maximum flight-level winds have increased from 122 kt to 134 kt\r\nduring the two passes through the northeastern quadrant. The highest\r\nSFMR winds measured thus far have only been around 100 kt. However,\r\ngiven the strong flight-level winds and the very low central\r\npressure, the initial intensity has only been decreased slightly to\r\n110 kt, which is a blend of the SFMR winds and surface-adjusted\r\nflight-level winds.\r\n\r\nMajor Hurricane Odile is moving north-northwestward or 330/13 kt.\r\nThere is no significant change to the previous forecast track\r\nreasoning. A strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico is expected to keep\r\nOdile moving north-northwestward to northwestward during the next\r\n72 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to rapidly\r\nweaken, with the low-level circulation decoupling from the mid- and\r\nupper-level circulations. By Days 4 and 5, the shallow cyclone is\r\nexpected to become stationary or drift eastward within weak\r\nlow-level westerly flow. The models are tightly clustered through\r\n72 hours, but diverge significantly after that with the ECMWF model\r\ntaking Odile intact across northern Baja and into the southwestern\r\nU.S., while the GFS model keeps Odile's remnant low west of Baja\r\nCalifornia. The official forecast leans heavily toward the GFS model\r\non Days 4 and 5 due to the expected rapid weakening of Odile. The\r\nNHC track forecast has been shifted slightly closer to Baja\r\nCalifornia, but not as far eastward as the consensus model TCVE.\r\n\r\nGiven that the central pressure has continued to decrease, and\r\nsatellite imagery and recon data suggest that the concentric\r\neyewall cycle could be coming to an end, some re-strengthening\r\novernight during the convective maximum period is a very distinct\r\npossibility. During the 12-36 hour time frame, interaction with the\r\nmountainous terrain of Baja California should induce gradual\r\nweakening. By 48 hours and beyond, rapid weakening is expected due\r\nto sharply decreasing sea-surface temperatures and increasing\r\nsouthwesterly wind shear. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory and is close to the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as\r\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of\r\nOdile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern\r\nMexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's\r\ncirculation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United\r\nStates by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 21.1N 108.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 22.6N 110.1W  115 KT 135 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 24.2N 111.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 25.4N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 26.5N 113.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 27.8N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 28.3N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 28.5N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nCORRECTED STATUS FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS\r\n\r\nGeostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall\r\nof the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a\r\nradius of about 25 n mi.  This broadening of the inner-core wind\r\nfield normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the\r\nuncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt.  This is\r\nsomewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.\r\nSince the center will be moving over or at least very near land\r\nshortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract\r\nand complete the eyewall replacement cycle.  Weakening is expected\r\nto commence by early Monday.  The amount of weakening over the next\r\nseveral days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the\r\nBaja California Peninsula.  On the latest NHC forecast track, the\r\ncenter is expected to remain over land for much of the period.\r\nTherefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower\r\nthan the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier\r\ntoday.  Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted\r\naccordingly.  This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\nUsers are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as\r\nstrong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of\r\nOdile.  In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern\r\nMexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's\r\ncirculation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United\r\nStates by early next week.   This could result in heavy rains and\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite data showed that Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas\r\naround 0445 UTC.  The estimated intensity of 110 kt at landfall\r\nties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make\r\nlandfall in the satellite era in the state of Baja California Sur.\r\nSince landfall, the eye of Odile has filled in conventional\r\nsatellite imagery, but the inner-core convection remains strong and\r\nvery symmetric.  The initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt\r\nfor this advisory. The hurricane should steadily weaken during\r\nthe next few days while the circulation and inner-core continue to\r\ninteract with the Baja California peninsula.  The latest NHC\r\nforecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is lower than\r\nthe previous NHC advisory.\r\n\r\nOdile is moving north-northwestward at 14 kt.  The cyclone is\r\nforecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the\r\nwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the southern United\r\nStates during the next couple of days.  The forward speed of Odile\r\nshould slow down as the cyclone weakens and becomes a more shallow\r\nsystem.  In a few days, the low-level circulation is forecast to\r\nturn northward, then northeastward, and dissipate over northern\r\nMexico or the northern portion of the Gulf of California in 4 to 5\r\ndays. The NHC track forecast lies between the latest GFS and\r\nECMWF models.\r\n\r\nSince strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the\r\ncenter of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.\r\nMoisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the\r\nPacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation\r\nnorthwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States\r\nduring the next several days.  This could result in heavy rains and\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 23.7N 110.4W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 25.1N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 26.7N 112.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 29.0N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 30.0N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 30.7N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite images indicate that the center of Hurricane\r\nOdile is displaced southwest of the conventional fixes, placing the\r\ncenter just inland along the west coast of Baja California Sur\r\nnorth of Santa Fe. The eye is still apparent in the microwave data,\r\nso the intensity is being lowered slowly since much of the low-level\r\ncirculation is still over water on both sides of the Baja peninsula.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is northwestward or 325/12 kt, based mainly on\r\nmicrowave satellite positions. Odile is expected to move slowly\r\nnorthwestward to north-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours,\r\nessentially remaining inland over the Baja California peninsula. As\r\nOdile rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge located over\r\nnorthern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to emerge over the northern\r\nGulf of California as a severely weakened and shallow low pressure\r\nsystem on Day 3, and is expected to move inland over northwestern\r\nMexico as a remnant low on Day 4. The NHC track forecast is just an\r\nupdate of the previous advisory track and lies close to the\r\nconsensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nDue to the expected prolonged interaction with the mountainous\r\nterrain of the Baja California peninsula, the surface winds are\r\nforecast to rapidly decrease during the next 48 hours, and the\r\nofficial intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model.\r\nHowever, it is important to note that the circulation aloft will not\r\nweaken as quickly as the low-level flow and, as a result, wind\r\nspeeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains can\r\noften up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory. In\r\nsome elevated locations, the winds can be even greater.\r\n\r\nSince strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the\r\ncenter of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track.\r\nAlso, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the\r\nPacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation\r\nnorthwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States\r\nduring the next few days. These factors, in combination with\r\nOdile's eventual slow forward speed, will likely result in heavy\r\nrains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas.  Please\r\nsee information from your local weather office for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 24.7N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 27.5N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 28.6N 114.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 29.6N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 30.5N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 31.0N 112.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Odile","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images show that the center of Odile remains well\r\ndefined while inland over central Baja California Sur.  An Air Force\r\nplane flying over the Gulf of California recently measured surface\r\nwinds approaching hurricane strength.  While the Dvorak technique is\r\nnot valid for cyclones over land, using the inland Decay rate yields\r\na current intensity estimate of 70 kt.  It should be noted that\r\nthese highest winds are likely occurring over a very small area.\r\nThe official intensity forecast follows the Decay-SHIPS model\r\nvery closely and shows the system weakening to a tropical storm in\r\n12 hours and to a depression in 48 hours.  In 3-4 days, the system\r\nshould degenerate into a remnant low.  This is similar to the\r\nprevious NHC wind speed forecast.  Given the mountainous terrain of\r\nthe Baja California peninsula, the rate of weakening could be even\r\nfaster than anticipated.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues moving northwestward or 325/11 kt.  A\r\nmid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer Odile\r\nnorthwestward to north-northwestward for the next day or so.\r\nAfterwards, a low-level trough over southern California should\r\ncause the weakening cyclone to turn northward and then\r\nnortheastward.  The official forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious one and to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nforecasts.\r\n\r\nMoisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's\r\ncirculation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow\r\nmotion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally\r\nheavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern\r\nUnited States.  Please see information from your local weather\r\noffice for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 25.5N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 26.8N 112.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 29.0N 113.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 30.8N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 15 2014\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY TO 55 KT\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone continues to have a fairly well-organized\r\nappearance on satellite imagery, but deep convection has been\r\nthinning out.  Applying a typical inland decay rate, the current\r\nintensity is set at a rather uncertain 55 kt.  Continued weakening\r\nis forecast, and the system is likely to fall below tropical storm\r\nstrength in a day or so.  The official wind speed forecast is\r\nsimilar to the latest decay-SHIPS guidance and to the intensity\r\nmodel consensus, and now shows Odile becoming a remnant low by 72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nOdile's heading has shifted a little to the right, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 340/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the\r\neast of the cyclone should cause a turn toward the north in a day or\r\nso, and a low- to mid-level trough near southern California is\r\nlikely to turn Odile or its remnant low north-northeastward in 2-3\r\ndays.  The official track forecast is a little faster than the\r\nprevious one and is close to the latest dynamical model consensus\r\nforecast, TVCE.\r\n\r\nMoisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's\r\ncirculation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow\r\nmotion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally\r\nheavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern\r\nUnited States.  Please see information from your local weather\r\noffice for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 26.6N 112.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 27.8N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 28.8N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 29.7N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 30.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 32.0N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nOdile continues to have a well-organized appearance on satellite\r\nimagery with bursts of deep convection continuing near the center.\r\nA couple of ASCAT passes indicated a large area of 45-kt winds\r\nover the Gulf of California just off the east-central coast of\r\nthe Baja peninsula.  Based on these data and the possibility of\r\nstronger winds along the immediate coast of the Baja peninsula,\r\nthe initial intensity is set at 55 kt.  Odile should gradually\r\nweaken during the next 24 to 36 hours while the circulation\r\ncontinues to interact with land.  Odile is forecast to become a\r\ntropical depression in a day or so, and degenerate to a remnant low\r\nwithin 48 hours.  The new forecast now calls for dissipation within\r\n3 days.\r\n\r\nOdile is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The cyclone\r\nshould turn toward the north, then northeast during the next day\r\nor so as it moves between a mid-level ridge to its east and a\r\nmid-level trough near southern California.  The latest NHC track\r\nis again a little faster than the previous advisory and is close to\r\na blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nMoisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's\r\ncirculation over the next few days.  This, along with the slow\r\nmotion of Odile or its remnant low, will likely result in locally\r\nheavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the southwestern\r\nUnited States.  Please see information from your local weather\r\noffice for more details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 27.4N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 28.5N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 29.4N 113.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 30.4N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 31.5N 112.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern of Odile has become ragged looking\r\nsince the previous advisory, accompanied by significant warming of\r\nthe cloud tops. The low-level circulation is still inland near\r\nthe east-central coast of the Baja California peninsula with the\r\nmid- to upper-level circulations tilted to the northeast over the\r\nGulf of California. The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on\r\ninland decay models and an earlier ASCAT overpass.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 340/08 kt. Odile should move\r\nnorthward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge\r\nand later move over the Gulf of California later today, and turn\r\ntoward the northeast on Wednesday and move inland over northwestern\r\nMexico. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this\r\nscenario, and the new forecast track is just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory. A 48-hour remnant low position has been provided\r\nfor continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.\r\n\r\nOdile will be moving across very warm waters of near 31C over the\r\nnorthern Gulf of California in the 12-24 hour period, which is\r\nexpected to briefly slow the weakening process. In fact, the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM intensity models actually show some slight restrengthening\r\nin 24 hours.  By 36 and 48 hours, Odile is forecast to rapidly\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low inland over northwestern Mexico, with\r\ndissipation expected by 72 hours, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nMoisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation\r\nover the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile\r\nor its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and\r\npossible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.\r\nPlease see information from your local weather office for more\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\nIn addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the\r\nnorthern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San\r\nFelipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing\r\ntrapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf\r\nof California.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 28.4N 113.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 29.2N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 30.2N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 31.2N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 32.3N 111.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern of Odile has stabilized during the\r\npast 6 hours, due in part to the center moving closer to the very\r\nwarm waters of the Gulf of California. Visible and microwave\r\nsatellite imagery, along with surface observations from Bahia de\r\nLos Angeles, Mexico indicate that the low-level circulation center\r\nis located just inland along the east-central coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula very near Bahia de Los Angeles. A 1642 UTC\r\nASCAT-B partial overpass showed one 44-kt vector and two 42-kt\r\nvectors in the southeastern quadrant, so the advisory intensity is\r\nset to 45 kt. The same wind data were used to adjust the 34-kt wind\r\nradii over the Gulf of California and to remove the tropical storm\r\nwarning along the west coast of Baja California.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 360/06 kt. Odile appears to now be\r\nmoving northward around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge\r\nthat is situated over mainland Mexico. The cyclone should emerge\r\nover the Gulf of California later this evening, turn toward the\r\nnortheast on Wednesday, and move inland over northwestern\r\nMexico by Wednesday evening. The NHC model guidance remains tightly\r\nclustered, and the new forecast track is just an extension of the\r\nprevious advisory and closely follows the consensus model TVCE.\r\nRemnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours have been provided\r\nfor continuity purposes and to assist with rainfall forecasts.\r\n\r\nAs Odile moves across 31C SSTs of the northern Gulf of California,\r\nlittle change in intensity is expected. By 24 hours and beyond,\r\nrapid weakening is expected as the cyclone moves inland over the\r\nrugged terrain of northwestern Mexico. The system is expected to\r\ndissipate by 72 hours, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nMoisture is forecast to be advected northward by Odile's circulation\r\nover the next few days.  This, along with the slow motion of Odile\r\nor its remnant low, will likely result in locally heavy rains and\r\npossible flooding over portions of the southwestern United States.\r\nPlease see information from your local weather office for more\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\nIn addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the\r\nnorthern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San\r\nFelipe Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing\r\ntrapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf\r\nof California.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 29.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 29.9N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 31.0N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND NWRN MEXICO\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 32.1N 112.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 33.2N 111.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":28,"Date":"2014-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images show that Odile is maintaining its organization for\r\nnow, although most of the deepest convection is confined to the\r\nnortheastern quadrant of the circulation.  Since the center of\r\ncirculation appears to be over the waters of the Gulf of California,\r\nit is assumed that the winds have not decreased and the intensity\r\nestimate remains 45 kt.  No significant change in strength is\r\nanticipated until the center crosses the coast of northwestern\r\nmainland Mexico on Wednesday.  After that occurs, weakening should\r\nbe rapid and the system will likely degenerate into a weak remnant\r\nlow in 24-36 hours, and lose its identity by 48 hours.  The official\r\nwind speed forecast is similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nBased on geostationary and microwave imagery, the motion continues\r\nto be northward or about 360/6 kt.  A mid-level ridge extending from\r\nsouthern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn\r\ntoward the north-northeast over the next day or so.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is very similar to that from the previous advisory,\r\nand is also very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,\r\nTVCE.\r\n\r\nMoisture is being advected northward by Odile's circulation, and the\r\nmoisture associated with Odile or its remnant low will likely be\r\ncrossing the United States/Mexico border within 24 hours.  This,\r\nalong with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in\r\nlocally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the\r\nsouthwestern United States.  Please see information from your local\r\nweather office for more details.\r\n\r\nIn addition, a significant storm surge is possible along the\r\nnorthern Gulf of California from Puerto Penasco westward to San\r\nFelipe, Mexico, due to a long fetch of southeasterly winds forcing\r\ntrapped water into the concave coastal regions of the northern Gulf\r\nof California.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 29.7N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 30.4N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 32.8N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":29,"Date":"2014-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nThe center of Odile is currently crossing the northern Gulf of\r\nCalifornia, with satellite imagery and radar data from the Yuma,\r\nArizona, WSR-88D indicating that most of the associated convection\r\nis now occurring in the northeastern semicircle.  This is likely due\r\nto a combination of 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nand land interaction.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB are 45 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.  Little\r\nchange in strength is likely before landfall in northwestern Mexico\r\nlater today.  Rapid weakening should occur after landfall, with\r\nOdile expected to decay to a remnant low by 36 hours and completely\r\ndissipate shortly thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 015/5.  A mid-level ridge extending from\r\nsouthern Texas westward over Mexico should cause a gradual turn\r\ntoward the northeast over the next day or so, with the center of\r\nOdile expected to move slowly across the northern Gulf of\r\nCalifornia, northwestern Mexico, and southern Arizona before\r\ndissipation.  The new forecast track is an update of the previous\r\ntrack and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nA large area of moisture associated with Odile is crossing\r\nnorthwestern Mexico into the southwestern United States.  This,\r\nalong with the slow motion of the system, will likely result in\r\nlocally heavy rains and possible flooding over portions of the\r\nsouthwestern United States.  Please see information from your local\r\nweather office for more details.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 30.1N 113.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 30.9N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 32.2N 111.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 33.5N 110.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Odile","Adv":30,"Date":"2014-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nFirst-light visible and microwave satellite imagery, along with NOAA\r\nDoppler radar data from Yuma and Tucson, suggest that the low-level\r\ncenter of Odile is still over the northern Gulf of California while\r\nthe mid- and upper-level circulations are displaced well to the\r\nnortheast over northwestern Mexico. As a result, satellite intensity\r\nestimates have been rapidly decreasing, and the initial intensity\r\nestimate has been lowered to 35 kt. The combination of the low-level\r\nblocking effect of the mountains of northwestern Mexico, plus\r\nincreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and abundant dry air\r\nahead of the aforementioned trough noted in water vapor imagery, are\r\nexpected to induce continued weakening, and Odile could potentially\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low or dissipate as early as this\r\nafternoon.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 035/05 kt.  A strong ridge\r\nextending westward over Mexico, in conjunction with an approaching\r\nmid-/upper-level trough to the west of Baja California, should keep\r\nOdile moving toward the northeast over the next day or so. The\r\ncenter of Odile or its remnants is expected to move slowly across\r\nthe northern Gulf of California today, and move into northwestern\r\nMexico and southern Arizona tonight and Thursday.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is just an update of the previous track and lies near the\r\nconsensus model TVCE. Alternatively, the low-level circulation could\r\ncontinue to separate from the circulation aloft and remain behind\r\nover the Gulf of California.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat with Odile and its remnants will be heavy\r\nrainfall due to the large plume of deep tropical moisture that will\r\ncontinue to spread across northwestern Mexico and the southwestern\r\nUnited States over the next couple of days.  These heavy rains will\r\nlikely cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous\r\nareas. Please see information from your local weather office for\r\nmore details.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 30.6N 113.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 31.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 32.7N 111.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Odile","Adv":31,"Date":"2014-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP152014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152014\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite and surface observations indicate that the low-level\r\ncirculation of Odile is becoming elongated and losing definition\r\nover extreme northwestern mainland Mexico, with a number of small\r\ncloud swirls rotating within a broad cyclonic envelope. In addition,\r\nthe remaining deep convection is becoming increasingly displaced\r\nfrom the decaying surface center.  Based on these observations,\r\nOdile is no longer considered a tropical cyclone and this will be\r\nthe last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center.  Because\r\nthe remnants of Odile continue to represent a significant rainfall\r\nthreat, the NOAA Weather Prediction Center will issue public\r\nadvisories while that threat exists, beginning at 8 p.m. PDT under\r\nAWIPS header TCPEP5 and WMO header WTPZ35 KWNH.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 045/06 kt.  The remnants of\r\nOdile should continue to move toward the northeast or east-northeast\r\nacross extreme northwestern Mexico tonight, and across southeastern\r\nArizona on Thursday ahead of an eastward-moving mid-latitude trough\r\ncurrently approaching western Baja California.\r\n\r\nHeavy rainfall and flooding associated with the remnants of Odile\r\nwill continue to be a significant threat across northwestern Mexico\r\nand the southwestern United States during the next couple of days.\r\nThese heavy rains will likely cause flooding and mudslides,\r\nespecially in mountainous areas. For future details, please see\r\ninformation from your local weather office and the NOAA Weather\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 31.1N 112.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS INLAND\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 31.9N 111.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS INLAND\r\n 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-09-11 15:30:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nFirst-light visible satellite imagery and microwave data suggest\r\nthat the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the\r\nBaja California peninsula has become better organized.  Satellite\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.0/30 kt, and\r\nthus the system is being upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E\r\nat this time.\r\n\r\nThe best guess on the initial motion is 340/11.  The depression is\r\nforecast to continue north-northwestward or northward with a\r\nsignificant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours as\r\nit moves along the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge.\r\nAfter that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an\r\nincrease in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated\r\ninto the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east.  A\r\nmotion south of east is even possible prior to dissipation.  The NHC\r\nforecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope but not\r\ntoo far from the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nWhile the depression could strengthen a little and become a\r\ntropical storm in the short term, opposing low- and upper-level\r\nflow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours\r\nor so.  Global models show the depression losing its identity in\r\n2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system\r\nremains a coherent feature through at least day 3.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is slightly above the multi-model consensus out\r\nto 24 hours and near it beyond that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1530Z 16.1N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 16.7N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 17.3N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 17.1N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 16.3N 116.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 14.5N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery suggests that the depression has become somewhat\r\nless organized since this morning.  Cloud top temperatures have\r\ngenerally warmed, and the depression's center is nearly exposed\r\non the northern edge of the main convective mass.  Low-cloud motions\r\nalso indicate that depression's circulation remains rather\r\nelongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with\r\nthe 1800 UTC satellite classification from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe depression should struggle to survive during the next few days.\r\nModerate northeasterly shear should persist over the cyclone in the\r\nshort term, making any significant intensification unlikely. In\r\nabout a day or so, the depression should become embedded in an\r\nenvironment of low- to mid-level westerly flow and easterlies aloft,\r\nwhich should induce a stronger easterly shear.  The forecast shear\r\ncould be enough to cause the cyclone to shear apart, and remnant\r\nlow status is now indicated in 48 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast\r\nis slightly lower than the previous one and no longer shows the\r\ndepression reaching tropical storm strength, in accordance with the\r\nlatest multi-model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest fixes, the center of the depression was\r\nrelocated a little farther west than in previous advisory. The\r\ndepression is moving north-northwestward, or 335/07, around the\r\nnorthwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge.  As the cyclone moves\r\ninto a col region during the next 12 to 24 hours, the track should\r\nbend northward and northeastward while the forward speed decreases\r\nconsiderably. Global models then show the depression accelerating\r\non a general eastward course toward the large and intensifying\r\ncirculation of Odile. The same guidance shows the depression either\r\nbeing absorbed by Odile or succumbing to prohibitively high wind\r\nshear and losing its identity in 2-3 days.  The track forecast is\r\nsimilar to but just a tad to the right of the previous one, close\r\nto the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 16.3N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 16.8N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 16.8N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 16.0N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014\r\n\r\nEarlier microwave imagery indicated that the low-level center of\r\nthe depression was located near the northern edge of the deep\r\nconvection.  The convection itself is not all that organized, and\r\nthe cloud tops have recently been warming.  The system remains a\r\n30-kt depression based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The\r\nvertical shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase out of\r\nthe east during the next 12-24 hours, which should prevent\r\nstrengthening during the next couple of days.  The depression is\r\nlikely to become absorbed by the larger circulation of Tropical\r\nStorm Odile, and the NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by\r\nday 3.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is northward, or 360/5 kt.  Low clouds to the\r\neast of the depression are already being pulled eastward into\r\nOdile's circulation, and the depression is also likely to be pulled\r\nnortheastward and eastward during the next 24 hours.  The available\r\ntrack models are showing a faster eastward motion on this cycle, and\r\nthe updated NHC forecast is adjusted eastward near the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 16.6N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 16.7N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nA 0538 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicates that the center of the depression\r\nis still located on the northeastern edge of the remaining deep\r\nconvection, consistent with northeasterly shear of around 10 kt\r\nanalyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS model. The initial intensity\r\nremains 30 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass and the latest\r\nTAFB Dvorak estimate. Easterly vertical shear is expected to\r\ngradually increase today, which should prevent any intensification.\r\nThee official forecast continues to show the depression weakening to\r\na remnant low in a couple of days and dissipating as it is absorbed\r\ninto the circulation of Tropical Storm Odile by 72 hours. However,\r\nboth of these could occur sooner than indicated.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been drifting northward during the past few\r\nhours. The track guidance shows an eastward to east-southeastward\r\nmotion developing during the next day or so as the depression comes\r\nunder the influence of Odile's circulation. Given the recent lack of\r\nmotion and a trend toward a slower forward speed in much of the\r\ntrack guidance this cycle, the new NHC track forecast is slower than\r\nthe previous one through dissipation. This forecast is close to a\r\nblend of the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean and is on the fast side\r\nof the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 16.6N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 16.7N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 16.4N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.9N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 15.3N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nCORRECTED SPELLING IN FIRST PARAGRAPH.\r\n\r\nThe center of the tropical cyclone is very difficult to find on\r\ngeostationary images, but an SSMI image from 1056 UTC indicated\r\nthat it continued to be located near the northeastern edge of the\r\nmain area of deep convection.  However, first-light visible\r\npictures suggest that the low-level circulation is poorly defined.\r\nThe current intensity estimate is 30 kt which is consistent with the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, although this may be\r\ngenerous.  The unfavorable influence of the much larger circulation\r\nof Tropical Storm Odile, centered about 800 n mi to the east of the\r\ndepression, should prevent significant strengthening.  As in our\r\nprevious forecast reasoning, it is expected that the depression will\r\ndissipate in a few days, if not sooner, by being absorbed by\r\nOdile. This is similar to the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nGiven the difficulty in fixing the center, the initial motion\r\nestimate is a rather uncertain 360/2 kt.  An eastward motion is\r\nlikely to commence within a day or so while the tropical cyclone\r\nbegins to become entrained into Odile's circulation.  Some increase\r\nin forward speed is likely in a couple of days as Odile exerts an\r\nincreasing influence on the steering of the depression.  The latest\r\nofficial forecast is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecast\r\ntracks, with the former showing a more eastward motion and the\r\nlatter significantly slower.  This is somewhat slower than the\r\nprevious NHC track forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.6N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 16.5N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 16.2N 118.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 15.7N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 15.0N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nThe depression is not well organized with limited deep convection\r\nand little, if any, convective banding to be seen.  Earlier SSMI,\r\nSSMIS, and a more recent ASCAT overpass showed that the low-level\r\ncenter was displaced to the east-northeast of a small cluster of\r\nshowers.  The current intensity is kept at 30 kt based on the\r\nscatterometer data. The ASCAT overpass, however, also showed that\r\nthe low-level circulation was becoming elongated from southwest to\r\nnortheast.  The unfavorable low-level influence of the much larger\r\ncirculation of Tropical Storm Odile, located about 800 n mi to the\r\neast, is expected to become increasingly disruptive to the\r\ndepression.  The system is now forecast to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow sooner than shown in earlier advisories.\r\n\r\nBased on the microwave observations and visible satellite imagery,\r\nthe cyclone has been moving slowly east-northeastward or 070/3.\r\nThe depression or post-tropical cyclone should soon become\r\nentrained into the circulation of Odile and turn eastward to\r\neast-southeastward over the next day or so.  The official track\r\nforecast is between the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 16.9N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 16.7N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 16.4N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 15.9N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 12 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Sixteen-E has become poorly organized this\r\nevening. Deep convection is limited to an amorphous blob on the\r\nwestern side of the increasingly elongated low-level wind center.\r\nThe initial intensity for this advisory has been held at 30 kt based\r\non the Dvorak classification from TAFB.  The recent disruption of\r\nthe circulation is primarily due to the proximity of the depression\r\nto Tropical Storm Odile, located about 800 n mi to the east.  As a\r\nresult, the environment around the depression consists of increasing\r\nwind shear in the vertical and horizontal. The environment is\r\nexpected to become even more unfavorable while the depression moves\r\ncloser to Odile.  All of the global and regional dynamical models\r\nforecast that the depression will open up into a trough within 36\r\nhours, and some suggest that this could occur much sooner than that.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is beginning to accelerate toward the east and the\r\ninitial motion is 110/05.  The models remain in good agreement that\r\nthe depression, or its remnants, will accelerate toward Odile on a\r\nnearly straight line until dissipation.  No substantial changes\r\nwere made to the track forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.6N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.4N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 16.0N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Sixteen-E remains poorly organized.  Shortwave\r\nIR and microwave imagery from a 0315 UTC SSMI-S pass indicate that\r\nthe low-level center remains exposed to the east of a small area of\r\ndeep convection.  The estimated initial motion is 110/06, however\r\nthis is somewhat uncertain due to the the poor organization of the\r\ndepression and the lack of visible imagery.  Regardless, the track\r\nforecast reasoning is generally unchanged and a steady east-\r\nsoutheastward motion toward the larger Hurricane Odile is expected\r\nuntil the depression dissipates in 24 to 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe intensity has been held at 30 kt based on the most recent Dvorak\r\nclassification from TAFB.  Due to its close proximity to the much\r\nstronger circulation of Odile, the depression is embedded within an\r\nunfavorable environment consisting of increasing vertical wind shear\r\nand descending, dry air.  The environment should become more\r\nunfavorable as the two tropical cyclones draw nearer, ultimately\r\ncausing Sixteen-E to become a remnant low before being stretched out\r\ninto a trough by the low-level flow of Odile.  Although the models\r\nall forecast the circulation of Sixteen-E to dissipate within 36\r\nhours, some of the intensity guidance appears to forecast\r\nstrengthening for the next several days.  This is because the vortex\r\ntracker follows a remnant feature that wraps around Odile, long\r\nafter the dissipation of the depression's surface circulation.\r\nConsequently, the official forecast has not been changed\r\nsignificantly and is below most of the guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 16.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 16.2N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 15.8N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nA strong burst of deep convection with cloud tops colder than -80C\r\nhave developed during the past few hours near and to the southwest\r\nof the center of TD-16E. In addition, recent passive microwave\r\nsatellite images indicate that the low-level circulation remains\r\nwell defined despite the moderate northeasterly shear that has been\r\naffecting the small cyclone. The initial intensity of 30 kt is\r\nbased on consensus T2.0/30 kt classifications from TAFB and SAB.\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT estimates are T2.5/35 kt, but the intensity is being\r\nheld below this value due to the pulsing nature of the deep\r\nconvection. The initial position was adjusted slightly southward of\r\nthe previous track based on a 1040 UTC SSMI microwave overpass.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is toward the east-southeast or 110/06\r\nkt. The depression is forecast to gradually turn more eastward as\r\nit comes under the influence of increasing westerly flow on the\r\nsouth side of Hurricane Odile, which is located more than 700 nmi to\r\nits east. The only change to the previous forecast track was to add\r\nremnant low positions at 36 and 48 hours given that most of the\r\nglobal models are now maintaining a discrete circulation a little\r\nbit longer. By 72 hours, however, the small cyclone is expected to\r\nbe absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile.\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear is expected to remain moderate from the\r\nnortheast and east at 15-20 kt for the next 24 hours or so, followed\r\nby even stronger shear induced by the outflow from Odile as the two\r\ncyclones move closer to each other. As a result, the depression is\r\nforecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 24-36 hours. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and\r\nclosely follows the ICON consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 16.0N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 15.7N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 15.5N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 16.0N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 18.4N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/1200Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nRagged convection has persisted near the center of the depression\r\nsince the previous advisory, and a 1748 UTC ASCAT-B overpass showed\r\nstill showed a well-defined low-level circulation and three 28-kt\r\nsurface wind vectors in the southwestern  quadrant. Therefore, an\r\ninitial intensity of 30 kt is being maintained for this advisory,\r\nwhich is supported by a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is toward the southeast or 120/06 kt.\r\nThere is no change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The\r\ndepression is expected to gradually turn toward the east over the\r\nnext 12-24 hours as the small cyclone comes under the influence of\r\nincreasing westerly flow on the south side of Hurricane Odile, and\r\nbe absorbed into the outer circulation of Odile by 72 hours. The\r\nofficial forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track\r\nand is close to the consensus model TCVE.\r\n\r\nNortheasterly to easterly vertical wind shear is expected to\r\nsteadily increase throughout the forecast period owing to the strong\r\noutflow from Hurricane Odile. As a result, the depression is\r\nforecast to degenerate into a remnant low during the next 24 hours.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory\r\nand the ICON consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 15.5N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 15.4N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 15.7N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/1800Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE ODILE\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery suggests that the depression is actually somewhat\r\nbetter organized than it was 24 hours ago. Last-light visible images\r\nshowed a well-defined circulation within an elongated broader-scale\r\ncyclonic envelope, obscured by a thick veil of cirrus clouds. A band\r\nconsisting of intermittent, cold-topped convection also was noted\r\non the south side of circulation.  Since there have been no\r\nfundamental changes to the cloud pattern since the last advisory,\r\nthe initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nOpposing lower- and upper-level flow is creating a hostile\r\nenvironment of easterly shear over the depression, with global\r\nmodels showing the shear increasing while the depression nears\r\nHurricane Odile.  The model guidance shows that the shear will\r\nbecome so extreme that the depression will degenerate into an open\r\ntrough in about 24 hours, and the NHC forecast follows suit.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving faster toward the east-southeast or\r\n120/08.  The small cyclone is expected to accelerate eastward and\r\neast-northeastward during the next 24 hours while it is drawn into\r\nthe circulation of Hurricane Odile.  The system should turn\r\nnortheastward after that time before losing its identity altogether.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 15.1N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 15.2N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 16.2N 112.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nA 0246 UTC GMI overpass shows that the circulation of Sixteen-E may\r\nfinally be losing definition.  However, a burst of deep convection\r\nhas persisted on the western side of the circulation since that time\r\nand Dvorak estimates have actually increased to 30-35 kt. Since the\r\noverall shear cloud pattern has not changed substantially since the\r\nprevious advisory, the intensity has been held at 30 kt for now.\r\n\r\nAlthough regular convective bursts have helped to maintain a\r\ncirculation, this is not expected to continue for long.  The\r\ndynamical guidance continues to show that the depression will\r\nquickly open up into a surface trough as a result of strong vertical\r\nwind shear associated with the low-level inflow and upper-level\r\noutflow of Hurricane Odile.  It is worth noting that 24 hours ago,\r\nmany of those same models had forecast that Sixteen would have\r\nalready opened into a remnant trough by now.  Given the hostile\r\nenvironment, the NHC forecast still shows weakening into a remnant\r\nlow within 24 hours and complete dissipation by 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression is accelerating around the circulation of Hurricane\r\nOdile and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 080/10.  There\r\nis decent agreement among the models that the depression, or its\r\nremnants, will continue to rotate around Hurricane Odile during the\r\nnext day or so.  The official forecast is very close to the\r\nconsensus of the ECMWF and GFS models for the 24 hours before\r\ndissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 14.9N 115.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 15.5N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.1N 111.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Zelinsky/Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Sixteen-E has been hanging in there as a\r\ntenacious system despite strong easterly shear in excess of 25 kt.\r\nYet another burst of deep convection has developed over and west\r\nof the center, yielding intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from\r\nTAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, and T3.4/34 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\nHowever, the overall convective cloud pattern has not changed much\r\nsince the last ASCAT overpass yesterday, which indicated surface\r\nwinds of near 30 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain\r\nat 30 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe depression has continued to accelerate around the southern\r\nperiphery of major Hurricane Odile, and the initial motion is\r\n090/11 kt, which is based mainly on microwave satellite fix\r\npositions. The NHC guidance remains in fair agreement that the\r\ndepression and its remnants will continue to rotate around the\r\nsouthern and eastern periphery of Odile during the next couple of\r\ndays.  The official forecast track is just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory track and lies between a blend of the ECMWF and GFS models.\r\n\r\nThe strong low-level circulation of Odile, combined with its robust\r\neasterly outflow, is forecast to produce significant shear across\r\nthe depression during the next 48 hours. This is expected to\r\nresult in the depression degenerating into an open trough within\r\nthe next 24-36 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 15.0N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 16.1N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 18.3N 110.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of the depression has become easier to locate\r\nthis afternoon, since it is now partially exposed on the east side\r\nof the deep convection.  This asymmetric cloud pattern is due to\r\nabout 25 kt of easterly shear.  The initial intensity is held at 30\r\nkt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classifications and a\r\npartial ASCAT pass around 1730 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving east-northeastward at about 7 kt while\r\ncontinuing to be drawn into the large circulation of major Hurricane\r\nOdile.  A turn toward the northeast and then the north-northeast is\r\nexpected during the next 24 hours before the system opens up into a\r\ntrough.  Little change in strength is expected before dissipation.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.6N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.2N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 20.8N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP162014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014\r\n\r\nThe last few hours of visible imagery this evening suggested that\r\nthe circulation of the depression was becoming elongated along a\r\nnorth-south axis and losing definition, with definitive\r\nwestward-moving cloud elements near the alleged center hard to\r\nidentify.  In addition, the decaying circulation was becoming\r\nincreasingly separated from a limited patch of deep convection.\r\nBased on these observations, this will be the last advisory on this\r\nsystem.  The remnants of the depression are expected to turn\r\nnortheastward and become fully absorbed within the circulation of\r\nHurricane Odile over the next day or so.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnants of the depression, please\r\nsee High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 16.3N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...DISSIPATED\r\n 12H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Franklin\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nScatterometer data from earlier this evening indicated that the\r\ncirculation of the low pressure area south of Mexico has become\r\nbetter defined.  The ASCAT data showed several 35-kt wind vectors\r\nover the southeastern portion of the circulation.  In addition, a\r\nship about 50 n mi south-southeast of the center reported winds to\r\nnear 30 kt, which was in good agreement with the ASCAT data.\r\nBased on these data and the increase in organization of the\r\nconvection overnight, advisories are being initiated on Tropical\r\nStorm Polo.  Polo becomes the sixteenth tropical storm in the\r\neastern Pacific basin this season.\r\n\r\nThe center of the tropical storm is located near the northeastern\r\nedge of the deep convection due to about 15 to 20 kt of\r\nnortheasterly shear.  The shear is forecast to decrease somewhat\r\nduring the next couple of days, which should allow for gradual\r\nstrengthening.  After 72 hours, the global models suggest that\r\nupper-level easterly winds could increase resulting in increasing\r\nshear.  As a result, the NHC forecast shows little change in\r\nstrength late in the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is a little\r\nbelow the statistical guidance and is close to the intensity\r\nconsensus, ICON.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/8 kt.  Polo is\r\nforecast to turn northwestward today and continue in that\r\ngeneral direction during the next couple days while it moves around\r\nthe southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the northern Gulf\r\nof Mexico.  Although the global models generally agree on this\r\nscenario, there are differences in how close Polo moves to the\r\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico in a couple of days.  The ECMWF takes\r\nPolo inland while most of the remainder of the guidance keeps the\r\ntropical storm offshore.  The NHC forecast is near the middle of\r\nthe guidance envelope during the first 2 to 3 days.  After that\r\ntime, a building ridge over northern Mexico should turn the cyclone\r\nwest-northwestward.  Confidence in the track forecast, especially\r\nlate in the forecast period, is lower than normal.\r\n\r\nInterests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the\r\nprogress of Polo.  A tropical storm watch may be required for a\r\nportion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 11.9N  98.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 12.8N  99.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 14.1N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 16.9N 104.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 18.8N 107.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 19.7N 108.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave data earlier today indicated that the center of\r\nPolo was to the north of the main convection due to moderate\r\nnortheasterly shear.  Since that time, the thunderstorm\r\nactivity has increased near the center despite the shear, but\r\nthe cloud pattern is still somewhat disrupted. Dvorak intensity\r\nnumbers support an initial intensity of 35 kt. The ocean is plenty\r\nwarm in that area, and with the shear expected to decrease, the NHC\r\nforecast calls for strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about\r\n48 hours.  This is in good agreement with the intensity consensus\r\nICON.\r\n\r\nPolo is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at about 10\r\nkt. The flow around a mid-level ridge over the southwestern\r\nUnited States and northern Mexico is controlling the track of\r\nPolo. This ridge is forecast to persist, keeping Polo on a general\r\nnorthwestward track for the next 3 to 4 days. The ECMWF\r\nmodel forecasts the ridge to weaken faster than the GFS, bringing\r\nthe center of the storm closer to the coast. At this time, the NHC\r\nforecast follows the multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average\r\ntrack between the GFS and the ECMWF, keeping Polo on a track\r\nparallel to the southwest coast of Mexico. Polo is expected to turn\r\nto the west by the end of the forecast period as a ridge to the\r\nnorth rebuilds.\r\n\r\nThe government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a\r\nportion of the coast of southwestern Mexico from Zihuatanejo to\r\nCabo Corrientes.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 12.8N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 13.8N 100.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 15.0N 102.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 16.3N 103.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 19.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 21.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 22.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized, with very\r\nwell defined cyclonically curved convective bands wrapping around a\r\nsmall central dense overcast. An ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone\r\na few hours ago yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. The ocean is\r\nplenty warm south of Mexico, and the shear is expected to decrease\r\nduring the next day or two. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls\r\nfor strengthening, making Polo a hurricane in about 36 hours, in\r\ngood agreement with the model consensus ICON. After 48 hours, most\r\nof the guidance shows an increase in shear and no additional\r\ndevelopment is anticipated, and in fact, some gradual weakening\r\nshould then begin.\r\n\r\nPolo is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at about 10\r\nkt, steered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over the\r\nsouthwestern United States and northern Mexico. This ridge will\r\ncontinue to steer Polo on a track parallel to and not too far from\r\nthe southwest coast of Mexico, and take the cyclone well south\r\nof the Baja California peninsula. The ECMWF model, which\r\npreviously brought the cyclone closer to Mexico, has changed its\r\ntune, and now keeps the cyclone offshore like the solution of the\r\nGFS. This is reflected in a southward shift in the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCN, which is very close to the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 13.2N 100.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 14.2N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 16.8N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 19.5N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 21.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 22.5N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 16 2014\r\n\r\nPolo continues to gradually become better organized. The center is\r\nlocated on the northern edge of an area of deep convection, and a\r\ncurved convective band has become better established in the western\r\nsemicircle. The initial intensity has been set to 45 kt based on\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model shows the\r\nshear decreasing below 10 kt during the next 24 hours, which in\r\ncombination with very warm SSTs above 29C should allow for\r\nintensification in the short term. In fact, the SHIPS RI index\r\nshows a 66 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours.\r\nThe official forecast has been adjusted upward in the short range,\r\nand shows Polo becoming a hurricane by 24 hours. Easterly shear is\r\nforecast to increase after that time, which should slow the pace\r\nof strengthening. By the end of the period Polo will be moving over\r\ncooler waters in a moderate shear environment, and gradual weakening\r\nis expected. The new NHC intensity forecast is a a little above the\r\nlatest IVCN intensity consensus and is close to the SHIPS model\r\nthrough the period.\r\n\r\nA pair of timely SSMIS passes around 00 UTC were helpful in\r\nestablishing the initial position and the initial motion of 310/10.\r\nThe tropical cyclone will be steered northwestward for the next\r\nseveral days by a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. By\r\nday 5, the cyclone should turn toward the west as the ridge builds\r\nwestward to its north. The new NHC track is a little left of the\r\nprevious one through 24 hours due to the initial position and\r\nmotion, but is otherwise an update of the previous track. Through\r\nthe period, the official forecast is close to the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 13.8N 101.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 14.9N 102.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 16.2N 103.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 17.2N 105.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 18.2N 106.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 19.7N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 21.3N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 22.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nThe overall organization of Polo has changed little in conventional\r\nsatellite imagery during the past few hours.  However, an earlier\r\nSSMIS microwave overpass showed a low-level ring, which suggests\r\nthat the inner-core is becoming better defined.  The latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and UW/CIMSS still support an initial intensity\r\nof 45 kt.  Recent satellite imagery shows that upper-level outflow\r\nis becoming better established over Polo.  With the improved\r\ninner-core structure and low shear forecast, steady strengthening is\r\nexpected during the next day or so.  The statistical guidance\r\npredicts less intensification than previously, but this could be due\r\nto the lack of strengthening during the past 6 hours and its affect\r\non the persistence factor in the SHIPS model. Therefore, the new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one through 24 hours,\r\nbut shows a slightly lower peak to be in better agreement with the\r\nintensity consensus.  In a couple of days, strong upper-level\r\neasterly winds are expected to cause an increase in shear, which is\r\nlikely to halt further intensification. Weakening is expected later\r\nin the period, due to the shear and the cyclone moving over\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt.  Polo is forecast to move\r\nnorthwestward during the next few days around the southwestern\r\nportion of a mid-level ridge over northeastern Mexico.  Later in\r\nthe period, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward while\r\na ridge builds to its north.   Although the model guidance is in\r\ngeneral agreement on this scenario, there are large differences in\r\nhow sharp Polo turns west-northwestward.  The ECMWF and GFS show an\r\nearlier west-northwestward turn and are along the southern edge of\r\nthe guidance envelope, meanwhile the UKMET and GFDL are on the\r\nnorthern side.  For now, the NHC forecast lies near the latest\r\nmulti-model consensus, which is also similar to the previous NHC\r\nforecast track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 14.8N 101.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 15.8N 102.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 16.9N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 17.7N 105.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 18.5N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 19.9N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 21.1N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 22.0N 113.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has continued to become better organized, and\r\nthe center is now more embedded within the area of deep convection\r\nas indicated by satellite. The initial intensity has been increased\r\nto 50 kt based on estimates from TAFB and SAB. There is still\r\nsome shear over the cyclone, but not strong enough to halt\r\nintensification, and Polo is forecast to become a hurricane in 24\r\nhours or so. After an expected peak intensity in about 36 hours,\r\nstrong upper-level northeasterly winds should become established\r\nover Polo, resulting is gradual weakening. This is the solution\r\nprovided by most of the guidance, and the NHC forecast follows\r\nclosely the intensity consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nPolo is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 9 knots,\r\nsteered by the flow around a mid-level ridge over northeastern\r\nMexico.  Beyond 48 hours, most of the global models build the\r\nridge westward forcing Polo to move on a west-northwesterly track.\r\nThe bulk of the guidance keeps the core of Polo well south\r\nof the southern tip of Baja California peninsula, and so does the\r\nNHC forecast.  This forecast is not very different from the previous\r\none, and is placed between the multi-model consensus TVCN, and\r\nlies between the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nA small deviation to the north of the track could bring stronger\r\nwinds to portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Consequently,\r\nthe government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a\r\nportion of the coast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 15.7N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 16.6N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 17.5N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 18.8N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 20.0N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 22.0N 114.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nPolo is intensifying, given the improvement of the cloud pattern\r\nduring the past several hours. In fact, there was a hint of an eye\r\nfeature embedded within a circular area of deep convection around\r\n1800 UTC, but this feature has not been observed since then. Based\r\non the average of the T-numbers from SAB and TAFB, the initial\r\nintensity is increased to 60 kt. There is an opportunity for Polo to\r\nstrengthen before the strong upper-level northeasterlies become\r\nestablished over the cyclone in 48 hours as indicated by most of the\r\nglobal models. The NHC forecast is near the upper boundary of the\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\r\n310 degrees at 10 knots. Most of the global models indicate that\r\nthe mid-level ridge over Mexico will build westward, and this\r\npattern will gradually steer Polo toward the west-northwest. On the\r\nforecast track, the core of the cyclone will stay south of the\r\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. This\r\nofficial forecast is similar to the previous one, and follows both\r\nthe multi-model consensus TVCN, and the average of the GFS and the\r\nECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 16.4N 103.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 17.8N 106.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 18.5N 107.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 19.2N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 20.5N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 21.5N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Polo","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 17 2014\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better\r\norganized, with increased convective banding.  Subjective Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB as well as objective\r\nestimates from CIMSS are a consensus 65 kt.  Therefore Polo is being\r\nupgraded, and it becomes the eleventh hurricane of this active\r\neastern North Pacific season.  There is moderate northeasterly shear\r\nover the system, but the shear is not expected to be strong enough\r\nto prevent some additional intensification over the next 24 hours\r\nor so.  Later in the forecast period, a somewhat drier and more\r\nstable air mass is expected to cause slow weakening.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is close to the latest Decay-SHIPS model\r\nguidance, and is similar to the previous NHC wind speed forecast.\r\n\r\nBased on recent center fixes, Polo is located slightly to the south\r\nof the previous track, and the initial motion is west-northwestward,\r\nor 300/9 kt.  A mid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from\r\nnorthwestern mainland Mexico across the Baja California peninsula\r\nshould cause the tropical cyclone to move on a west-northwestward or\r\nnorthwestward heading for the next several days.  The official track\r\nforecast has been shifted slightly south of the previous one, mainly\r\ndue to the more southward position of Polo at this time.  The\r\ncurrent NHC track prediction lies quite close to the GFS/ECMWF\r\nconsensus and the Florida State University Superensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 16.4N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 17.7N 106.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 18.4N 107.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 19.2N 108.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 20.6N 111.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 21.6N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Polo","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nPolo has changed little in organization during the past several\r\nhours.  Satellite imagery indicates a small central convective\r\nfeature, with an area of outer banding over the southeastern\r\nsemicircle.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain\r\n65 kt, and that is the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 300/7.  A mid-tropospheric ridge extending\r\nwestward from northwestern mainland Mexico across the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula should cause the tropical cyclone to move on a\r\nwest-northwestward or northwestward heading for the next several\r\ndays.  While the overall track forecast philosophy is unchanged, the\r\nlatest track guidance has shifted to the north since the previous\r\nadvisory due mainly to forecasts of a northwestward motion during\r\nthe first 24-48 hours.  The new forecast track lies parallel to but\r\na little north of the previous track in best agreement with the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models.  However, the new track is south of the center of\r\nthe guidance envelope, as well as south of the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nAnalyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show that\r\nnortheasterly vertical wind shear is increasing over Polo.  The\r\nlarge-scale models forecast this to continue, with the shear\r\nbecoming quite strong after 24 hours.  The intensity guidance\r\nresponds to these developments by forecasting Polo to be weaker\r\nthan the guidance of 6 hours ago.  The intensity forecast follows\r\nthe trend of the previous forecast, with a little strengthening\r\nduring the first 24 hours followed by weakening as Polo encounters\r\nthe stronger shear and cooler water.  However, the forecast\r\nintensities are lowered from 24-120 hours.  It should be noted that\r\nthe new forecast is at the upper-level edge of the intensity\r\nguidance, and an alternative forecast scenario is that Polo does not\r\nstrengthen any more before the shear causes it to weaken.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 16.7N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 17.4N 105.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 18.2N 106.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 18.9N 107.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 19.6N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 22.0N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Polo","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Polo has not become any better\r\norganized during the past several hours. There is a small central\r\ndense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band.\r\nThe initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on Dvorak estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB. Polo has the opportunity to strengthen before the\r\nnortheasterly shear increases in 24 hours as indicated in the NHC\r\nforecast. After that time, most of the guidance shows gradual\r\nweakening, and in fact, the peak wind indicated by the intensity\r\nconsensus and the SHIPS models is lower than in previous runs.\r\nCooler waters from the upwelling caused by Odile will likely aid the\r\nweakening process.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 310/7.  A strong ridge\r\nof high pressure over Mexico is driving Polo west-northwestward and\r\nnorthwestward. Most of the global models amplify the ridge, and this\r\npattern will continue to steer Polo on the same general track for\r\nthe next 3 to 4 days. On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass\r\nwell south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and well south of the\r\nsouthern Baja California peninsula. The confidence in the track\r\nforecast is relatively high since both the multi-model consensus\r\nTVCN and the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models, GFEX, are\r\npredicting a track well removed from land.  By the end of the\r\nforecast period, a weaker Polo will probably meander embedded within\r\nthe low-level flow, well away from land.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 17.3N 105.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.0N 106.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 18.7N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 19.5N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 20.4N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 22.5N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nAn Air Force reconnaissance plane just traversed the core of Polo,\r\nand although a dropsonde measured a pressure of 983 mb with 25 kt\r\nwinds in the center, neither the flight-level nor SFMR-winds in any\r\nquadrant support keeping Polo at hurricane intensity. The\r\nmaximum winds have been lowered to 60 kt in this advisory. This\r\nis also reflected in the cloud pattern, which has become a little\r\nbit disrupted in the past few hours. Polo had the opportunity to\r\nstrengthen, but it appears that the northeasterly shear increased\r\nearlier than anticipated, halting the intensification. Little\r\nchange in strength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, but\r\na gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin in 24 hours, as\r\nindicated by most of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThere is no change in the forecast track, and as in previous runs,\r\nmost of the guidance maintains Polo moving toward the northwest or\r\nwest-northwest around the periphery of an amplifying mid-level ridge\r\ncentered over Mexico. On the forecast track, the cyclone will pass\r\nwell south of the southwestern coast of Mexico and well south of the\r\nsouthern Baja California peninsula.  The confidence in the track\r\nforecast is relatively high since both the multi-model consensus\r\nTVCN and the average of the GFS and the ECMWF models, GFEX, are\r\nkeeping Polo well removed from land.  However, any unexpected\r\ndeviation to the right of the track could require the issuance of a\r\ntropical storm watch for the southern portion of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 17.8N 105.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 18.5N 106.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 19.2N 107.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 20.0N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 20.8N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 22.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 18 2014\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in organization since the Hurricane\r\nHunters investigated the storm this afternoon.  A blend of\r\nsubjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, as well as\r\nADT numbers from UW-CIMSS, supports holding the intensity at 60 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  Not much change in strength is likely in the\r\nshort term.  However east-northeasterly shear, associated with a\r\nlarge upper-level anticyclone anchored over northwestern Mexico, is\r\nforecast to increase over Polo during the next several days.  This,\r\nalong with less favorable thermodynamic conditions, should lead to\r\ngradual weakening of the storm through the forecast period.  The\r\nofficial wind speed forecast is the same as the previous one.  This\r\nis not far from the Decay-SHIPS guidance for the first couple of\r\ndays of the forecast period, and a little above it thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe motion continues northwestward and, at least temporarily, a\r\nlittle faster or 320/8 kt.  Global models indicate that a ridge is\r\nforecast to develop westward from a mid-troposphere high pressure\r\nsystem over northern Mexico during the next several days.  This\r\nshould cause the track of Polo to gradually bend toward the\r\nwest-northwest. By late in the forecast period, the weakening\r\ncyclone should be drifting westward in the shallow low-level flow.\r\nThe official track forecast has been nudged just a little northward\r\non account of the recent faster northwestward motion.  This is close\r\nto a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF predictions, and slightly south\r\nof the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nAlthough the northward shift is not large, given the uncertainties\r\nin the track and future wind radii, it is prudent to issued a\r\ntropical storm watch for the extreme southern Baja California\r\npeninsula at this time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 18.4N 106.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 19.0N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 20.6N 109.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 21.3N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 22.2N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 22.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014\r\n\r\nPolo is showing a sheared cloud pattern this morning, with the\r\nlow-level center located near the northern or northeastern edge of\r\nthe convection.  This is consistent with analyses of 20-25 kt of\r\neasterly vertical wind shear impacting the cyclone.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates are 55 kt from TAFB and 65 kt from SAB, and a\r\n04Z ASCAT overpass showed 50-55 kt winds.  Based on these, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 315/7.  Global models continue to forecast a\r\nridge of high pressure to develop westward from northern Mexico\r\nduring the next several days.  This should cause the track of Polo\r\nto gradually bend toward the west-northwest. By late in the forecast\r\nperiod, the weakening cyclone should be drifting westward and\r\nsouthwestward in the shallow low-level flow.  The track guidance\r\nshows little change from the previous advisory through 96 hours, and\r\nthen shows a more southwestward drift than forecast earlier.  The\r\nnew official forecast follows this, and it is in best agreement with\r\nthe consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale models forecast the shear to continue through the\r\nforecast period as Polo moves over progressively cooler sea surface\r\ntemperatures.  This should lead to a gradual weakening as shown by\r\nall of the intensity guidance.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to that of the previous advisory, calling for Polo to\r\nweaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours and to degenerate to a\r\nremnant low by 120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 18.9N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 19.6N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 20.4N 108.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 21.0N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 21.7N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM  cca\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14...corrected\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014\r\n\r\ncorrected to initial intensity\r\n\r\nData from a SSMI/S satellite at 1144 UTC revealed that the center\r\nof Polo was a little farther to the southeast than previously\r\nindicated. The initial position has then been adjusted accordingly.\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has not changed very much, and a blend of\r\nsatellite intensity estimates with an earlier ASCAT pass is\r\nconsistent in keeping the winds at 60 kt. Most of the guidance\r\nshow a significant increase in the easterly shear over Polo, and\r\nwith cooler waters along the expected track of Polo, the NHC\r\nforecast calls for weakening. Polo will likely be a remnant low in\r\n96 hours or earlier.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a little uncertain given the small adjustment\r\nin the initial position. The best estimate is toward the west-\r\nnorthwest or 300 degrees at 6 kt.  The mid-level ridge over northern\r\nMexico is forecast to build westward, and this pattern should force\r\nPolo to move on a west-northwest to west track during the next\r\nseveral days. The NHC forecast is not very different from the\r\nprevious one, except during the first 12 hours or so due to the\r\nadjustment of the initial position. The rest of the forecast\r\nforecast is very close to the multi-model consensus and to the\r\naverage of the GFS and the ECMWF. These models, as well as the\r\nofficial forecast, keep the center of Polo well south of the the\r\nsouthern portion of the Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 19.3N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 19.8N 108.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 21.4N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 21.7N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 22.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014\r\n\r\nDespite the amount of microwave and ASCAT data available earlier, it\r\nwas difficult to precisely locate the center of Polo. It appears\r\nthat the cyclone spent several hours meandering or perhaps reforming\r\nwithin the convection. Currently, the cloud pattern is not very\r\ndifferent from 24 hours ago, and both ASCAT data around 1630 UTC and\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimates support an initial intensity of 60 kt.\r\nIn terms of the wind field, the same ASCAT data indicate that Polo\r\nhas a large area of tropical storm force winds in the southeast\r\nquadrant, but a much smaller area of 34-kt winds in the northern\r\nsemicircle.\r\n\r\nThe combination of strong unfavorable upper-level easterly winds\r\nover Polo and cool waters should result in gradual weakening.\r\nConsequently, the NHC forecast calls for Polo to become a depression\r\nor remnant low in about 3 to 4 days well to west of Baja California.\r\nThis is consistent with most of the guidance, primarily the\r\nintensity consensus ICON and LGEM model.\r\n\r\nPolo has resumed its northwest track at about 5 knots. A strong\r\nmid-level ridge, which is forecast to amplify to the north of the\r\ncyclone, will keep Polo on a general west-northwest to west track\r\nfor the next 3 to 5 days. NHC forecasts have been very consistent\r\nfor several cycles in bringing the cyclone well south of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, and this is the solution provided by the\r\nmulti-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 19.4N 108.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 20.0N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 20.7N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 21.4N 111.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 22.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 22.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1800Z 22.0N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 19 2014\r\n\r\nAn SSM/I pass around 2200 UTC and late-day visible imagery indicated\r\nthat the center of Polo was exposed on the northeastern edge of the\r\ndeep convection. The cloud pattern has deteriorated quite a bit\r\nduring the past few hours, with little structure seen in the warming\r\ncloud tops as they are pushed south and west of the center by about\r\n30 kt of easterly shear. The initial intensity has been lowered to\r\n50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB. Steady weakening is forecast as the shear is\r\nexpected to continue and the cyclone will be moving into a drier\r\nenvironment over gradually cooler SSTs during the next few days.\r\nPolo should become a remnant low in about 3 days west of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted\r\ndownward from the previous one and is close to the latest IVCN\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/07 given the erratic\r\nmovement of the center in the last 12 to 18 hours. Polo should\r\ngradually turn west-northwestward in the next 24 hours as a mid-\r\nlevel ridge builds north of the tropical cyclone. Late in the\r\nperiod, much of the guidance shows the shallow remnant low turning\r\nsouth-southwestward as a low-level ridge to the west becomes the\r\ndominant steering mechanism. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted\r\na little to the right in the first 48 hours given the center\r\nposition and motion, and lies a little north of a blend of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models. Late in the period, the NHC forecast has been\r\nadjusted toward the south, but not as far south as the GFS and ECMWF\r\ntracks.\r\n\r\nEven with the slight northward shift in the track, tropical storm\r\nforce winds are likely to remain south of the Baja California\r\npeninsula since Polo is now forecast to weaken a little faster.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 20.1N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 20.7N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 21.3N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 21.9N 111.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 22.3N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 22.4N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 22.0N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014\r\n\r\nPolo continues to lose organization due to the effects of 25-30 kt\r\nof easterly vertical wind shear.  The low-level center is exposed\r\nto the northeast of the convection, and the convection has\r\ndecreased in both coverage and intensity over the last 24 hours.\r\nIn addition, water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air moving\r\nover the low-level center.  Satellite intensity estimates are 55 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and 45 kt from SAB.  Based on these data and trends since\r\nthe last advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a somewhat\r\nuncertain 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 315/6.  Polo should gradually turn west-\r\nnorthwestward in the next 24-36 hours as a mid-level ridge builds\r\nnorth of the cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, the dynamical\r\nguidance shows the shallow remnant low turning south-southwestward\r\nas a low-level ridge to the west becomes the dominant steering\r\nmechanism.  During the first 48 hours, the new track forecast is\r\nagain a little to the north of the previous forecast, and it lies a\r\nlittle to the south of the center of the guidance envelope.  After\r\nthat time, the new forecast is similar to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale models forecast the shear to continue for the next\r\n72 hours while Polo moves over cooler sea surface temperatures and\r\ninto a dryer air mass.  This combination should cause steady\r\nweakening, with the cyclone forecast to weaken to a tropical\r\ndepression in about 36 hours and to degenerate into a remnant low by\r\n72 hours.  The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous\r\nadvisory and is a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and intensity consensus\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nBased on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force\r\nwinds are most likely to remain south of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  However, any deviation to the north of the forecast\r\ntrack could bring tropical storm force winds to the southern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 20.5N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 21.1N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 21.8N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 22.2N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 22.5N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 22.5N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 21.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough the convection has increased a little in the past\r\ncouple of hours, Polo is still a sheared cyclone. The cloud pattern\r\nconsists of a tight swirl of low clouds located on the northeastern\r\nedge of an area of intermittent deep convection. Based on the trend\r\nof satellite estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40\r\nkt, and these winds are probably occurring in the convection in the\r\nsouthwest quadrant. The shear is forecast to increase even further,\r\nand the cyclone is heading toward cooler waters. The combination of\r\nthese two factors should result in additional weakening, and Polo is\r\nexpected to become a tropical depression in about 24 hours. In fact,\r\nthe SHIPS and LGEM models dissipate the cyclone by 36 hours.\r\n\r\nPolo has been moving between the northwest and west-northwest since\r\nyesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an\r\namplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should\r\nforce Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track until\r\ndissipation in a few days. The NHC forecast has not changed, and\r\ncontinues to be very close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nBased on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force\r\nwinds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the\r\nforecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,\r\nthe government of Mexico has wisely opted to maintain the tropical\r\nstorm watch until Polo moves away from Baja California.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 20.9N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 21.3N 109.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 21.9N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 22.3N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 22.5N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 21.5N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1200Z 20.5N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014\r\n\r\nPolo is a sheared cyclone, and the cloud pattern consists of a tight\r\nswirl of low clouds with intermittent deep convection. The initial\r\nintensity is kept at 40 kt at this time, but given the hostile\r\nenvironment and the cooler waters, weakening is forecast. Polo will\r\nlikely become a remnant low in about 36 hours.\r\n\r\nPolo has been moving between northwest and west-northwest since\r\nyesterday at about 5 to 7 kt. The cyclone is trapped south of an\r\namplifying mid-level ridge over Mexico, and this pattern should\r\nforce Polo to move on a west-northwest to west track for the next 2\r\nto 3 days, and then the remnant low should meander until\r\ndissipation. The NHC forecast has not changed, and continues to be\r\nvery close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nBased on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force\r\nwinds are anticipated to remain south of the Baja California\r\npeninsula. Since any unexpected deviation to the north of the\r\nforecast track could bring tropical storm force winds to the coast,\r\nthe Government of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until\r\nPolo begins to move away from Baja California Sur.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 21.2N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 22.0N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 22.3N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 21.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 20.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 20 2014\r\n\r\nPolo continues to be buffeted by 25 to 30 kt of easterly shear, and\r\nthe cloud pattern features only small patches of disorganized deep\r\nconvection west of the center location. Dvorak estimates are slowly\r\ndecreasing, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt based on\r\nthe latest estimate from TAFB. Given the continued shear and a track\r\nover cooler waters, Polo is forecast to gradually weaken to a\r\ndepression and then to a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could\r\noccur sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/06. Polo moved a little to the\r\nright of the previous forecast track over the past few hours, but\r\nthe overall track forecast reasoning remains unchanged. The\r\nweakening cyclone will continue west-northwestward and then turn\r\nwestward as a mid-level ridge builds to the north during the next\r\ncouple of days. Afterward, the weak remnant low should turn\r\nsouthwestward under the influence of a low-level ridge to the west.\r\nThe guidance has shifted to the right this cycle, showing a broader\r\nwestward and then southwestward turn through dissipation. Based on\r\nthis shift, and the initial position and motion, the NHC track has\r\nbeen shifted about 30 miles to the right of the previous official\r\nforecast toward the latest TVCE multi-model consensus through 48\r\nhours, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after that\r\ntime.\r\n\r\nBased on the forecast track and wind radii, tropical storm force\r\nwinds are expected to remain south of the Baja California peninsula.\r\nSince any unexpected deviation to the north of the forecast track\r\ncould still bring tropical storm force winds to the coast, the\r\nGovernment of Mexico is keeping the tropical storm watch until Polo\r\nbegins to move away from Baja California Sur.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 21.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 22.1N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 22.5N 112.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 22.6N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 22.3N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 21.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 20.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014\r\n\r\nPolo has continued to be impacted by strong easterly wind shear of\r\naround 25 kt, which has severely weakened the associated convection.\r\nWhat little convection that does exist has been displaced into the\r\nwestern quadrant. A 0413 ASCAT-B overpass indicated several 33-kt\r\nwind vectors in the northeastern and southwestern quadrants. Since\r\nsome undersampling is possible, the initial intensity is being\r\nmaintained at 35 kt for this advisory, especially since some\r\nconvective redevelopment could return during the remainder of the\r\nconvective maximum period this morning while the cyclone is over\r\nSSTs near 28C.\r\n\r\nNow that Polo's low and upper-level circulations are beginning to\r\nweaken and decouple, the cyclone has made a westward jog and the\r\ninitial motion is now 285/06 kt. However, the track forecast and\r\nreasoning basically remain unchanged from the previous advisory.\r\nPolo is expected to continue to weaken and become more vertically\r\nshallow, being steered westward and eventually southwestward by a\r\nstrengthening low- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the\r\ncyclone. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory\r\ntrack and TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nStrong easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to continue for the\r\nnext 36 hours or so, which should cause Polo to continue to weaken.\r\nThe cyclone will likely become a tropical depression later today,\r\nand degenerate into a remnant low on Monday, if not sooner.\r\nAlthough the remnant circulation will be moving back over warm\r\nwater on Days 3 and 4, the surrounding airmass is expected to be\r\ndry and more stable, which should inhibit any persistent convective\r\ndevelopment from occurring.\r\n\r\nGiven that the size of Polo's wind field has decreased and that the\r\ncyclone is also now moving away from Baja California Sur, the\r\nGovernment of Mexico has discontinued the tropical storm watch for\r\nBaja California Sur.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 21.6N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 21.9N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 22.1N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 22.0N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 21.5N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 20.3N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014\r\n\r\nPolo is not in good shape.  Strong easterly shear continues to\r\naffect the cyclone, keeping the low-level center exposed to the east\r\nof the nearest deep convection.  The system has been producing\r\nsomewhat regular bursts of deep convection over the past couple of\r\ndays, with the latest burst currently on the increase.  The initial\r\nintensity is being held at 35 kt for this advisory in agreement with\r\nthe 1200 UTC TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate.  With no cessation of\r\nthe strong shear seen in the short term, further weakening seems\r\nlikely to occur. However, Polo will be moving over warm enough water\r\nto sustain additional bursts of convection, and thermodynamic\r\nvariables will only gradually become less conducive. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast, like the previous one, shows slow weakening but\r\nmaintains the system as a tropical cyclone longer. The new forecast\r\nis just above the latest intensity guidance and shows dissipation in\r\nabout 3 days in line with global model output.\r\n\r\nPolo is moving slowly west-northwestward or 290/06 kt.  A continued\r\nwest-northwestward and then westward track is expected during the\r\nnext day or so as a result of a westward building mid-level ridge\r\nover northern Mexico.  Once Polo becomes shallower in nature, a bend\r\nof the track toward the southwest and south-southwest is indicated\r\nas the cyclone is pushed by a north-northeasterly flow on the\r\neastern side of a low-level ridge.  The new track forecast does not\r\ndepart significantly from the previous one but is shifted slightly\r\nto the right in the direction of the well-performing multi-model\r\nconsensus, TVCE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 21.9N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 22.2N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 22.2N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 21.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 21.4N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 20.1N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014\r\n\r\nAfter an impressive burst of deep convection, strong easterly shear\r\nhas pushed the thunderstorm activity well west of the low-level\r\ncenter.  An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago indicated that the\r\nmaximum winds were still near 35 kt.  Since the shear is not\r\nexpected to abate much over the next day or two, and the\r\nthermodynamic environment is expected to gradually become less\r\nfavorable, weakening is likely.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one and is a blend of the latest\r\nDecay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  Polo should degenerate into a\r\nremnant low within a couple of days.\r\n\r\nBased on some microwave imagery and the scatterometer data, the\r\ncenter is located slightly north of the previous track.  The\r\ninitial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt.  A\r\nmid-level ridge to the north of Polo is expected to cause the\r\ncyclone to turn westward within the next day or so.  Thereafter, the\r\nweakening remnant low should turn west-southwestward and then\r\nsouthwestward within the shallow-layer northeasterly flow.  The\r\nofficial forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF\r\npredictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 22.3N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 22.5N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 22.5N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 22.1N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 21.7N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 20.6N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Polo","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014\r\n\r\nOnly a very small area of convection remains, and it is associated\r\nwith Polo's remnant mid-level circulation about 120 n mi\r\nwest-northwest of the exposed low-level center.  Despite the\r\ncurrent structure, the maximum winds probably have not decreased\r\nsignificantly since the earlier ASCAT data, so the initial\r\nintensity is held at 35 kt for now.  Although the cyclone could\r\nstill produce some bursts of convection since it will remain over\r\n26C water, persistent shear is likely to cause the winds to\r\ncontinue to decrease gradually during the next few days.  Polo will\r\nlikely become a post-tropical remnant low within the next 24 hours\r\nif deep convection doesn't redevelop soon.  Dissipation is expected\r\nby late Thursday.\r\n\r\nPolo appears to have sped up a bit, possibly due to the low-level\r\ncenter being tugged westward by the earlier burst of deep\r\nconvection, and the initial motion is 290/9 kt.  As the cyclone\r\nweakens, it will become increasingly steered by low-level northerly\r\nflow off the coast of the Baja California peninsula.  This will\r\nforce Polo to turn westward and slow down on Monday and then turn\r\nsouthwestward by late Tuesday.  The updated NHC track forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one and is close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 22.9N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 23.0N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 22.4N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 21.9N 116.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 20.3N 117.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Polo","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014\r\n\r\nPolo has been devoid of significant deep convection for about 10\r\nhours now.  Satellite images show that the cyclone consists of a\r\ntight swirl of low-level clouds with a few deeper clouds located\r\nover 100 n mi west of the center near the mid-level remnants.\r\nThe initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt, following the latest\r\nDvorak classifications, making Polo a tropical depression.\r\nContinued weakening is expected while the cyclone remains in an\r\nenvironment of strong shear, dry air, and over relatively cool\r\nwaters.  If deep convection does not return soon, Polo will likely\r\nbe declared a remnant low later today.  The remnant low is forecast\r\nto dissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe depression has moved west-southwestward during the past few\r\nhours, but a longer term motion is 270/7.  A slower westward motion\r\nis expected today, followed by a turn to the southwest on Tuesday\r\nwhile the shallow system is steered by a low-level ridge to its\r\nnorthwest.  The NHC track forecast is south of the previous one,\r\nmainly to account for the initial position, and is near the\r\nmulti-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 22.5N 113.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 22.4N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 21.2N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 20.0N 118.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Polo","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP172014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172014\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 22 2014\r\n\r\nPolo has been absent of any organized deep convection for more than\r\n12 hours.  Although a few sporadic showers have developed since 0900\r\nUTC over the western half of the circulation, strong east-\r\nsoutheasterly shear and unfavorable thermodynamic factors should\r\ninhibit any significant return of deep convection.  Based on the\r\nlack of deep convection for some time, the cyclone is being declared\r\na post-tropical remnant low on this advisory.  The initial wind\r\nspeed estimate presumes some spin-down of the vortex since late\r\nyesterday and is lowered to 25 kt on this advisory.  Global models\r\nshows Polo degenerating into an open trough by 48 hours, and so does\r\nthe official forecast.\r\n\r\nPolo has been moving west-southwestward or 250/07.  The now-shallow\r\nvortex is expected to turn southwestward or south-southwestward\r\non the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge over the subtropical\r\neastern Pacific prior to dissipation.  The track forecast is left\r\nof much of the guidance, including the multi-model consensus, given\r\nthe already greater southerly component of motion.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low of Polo please see\r\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 22.2N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 22.0N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 21.7N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 21.2N 116.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 24 2014\r\n\r\nConvection associated with the area of low pressure located south of\r\nMexico has increased and persisted overnight.  The convection is not\r\nextremely well organized due to strong northeasterly shear, however\r\nDvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both SAB and TAFB suggest that the\r\nsystem has enough organization to be classified as a tropical\r\ndepression.  The shear is causing the convection to be displaced to\r\nthe south and southwest of the low-level center.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest\r\nDvorak classifications and earlier ASCAT data.  Strong upper-level\r\nwinds over the cyclone are expected to continue during the next 24\r\nhours or so.  After that time, the depression is forecast to move\r\ninto an area of decreasing shear and some gradually strengthening is\r\npredicted.  Late in the period, the cyclone will move into a less\r\nfavorable thermodynamic environment and weakening should commence.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/12 kt.  The depression should\r\nmove west-northwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge over\r\nMexico during the next several days.  After 72 hours, the cyclone\r\nwill approach a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid-latitude\r\ntrough that will be moving into California.  This should cause the\r\ncyclone to slow down and turn northwestward by days 4 and 5. The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement with this scenario and the NHC\r\ntrack is a blend of the latest ECMWF and GFS model solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 15.0N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 15.7N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 16.7N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 17.7N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 18.6N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 20.0N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 21.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection formed closer to the center of the depression late\r\nthis morning, but recent satellite imagery suggests that strong\r\nupper-level winds are beginning to cause a separation between the\r\ncenter and the convection once again.  Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nwere unchanged at 1800 UTC and a recent ASCAT pass indicated\r\nmaximum winds of around 30 kt.  Strong upper-level northeasterly\r\nwinds are expected to prevent significant strengthening during the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours, however the depression could become a low-end\r\ntropical storm during this time.  The shear is forecast to decrease\r\nlate Thursday and Friday, which should allow for some modest\r\nstrengthening before the cyclone moves into less favorable\r\nthermodynamic conditions late in the period.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is again\r\nclose to the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/12, a little more westward than\r\nestimated earlier today.  The model guidance indicates that the\r\ncyclone should turn west-northwestward and continue on that general\r\nheading during the next several days, to the south of a mid-level\r\nridge over northern Mexico.  Later in the period, the cyclone\r\nshould turn northwestward as a weakness in the ridge develops along\r\n115W.  The GFS continues to show a slightly stronger cyclone\r\nturning northward, while the ECMWF takes a weaker system westward.\r\nThe NHC track lies between these solutions and is close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.  The updated track is a little west of\r\nthe previous advisory, primarily due to the more southward and\r\nwestward initial position.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 15.1N 106.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 15.7N 108.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 16.7N 110.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 18.5N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 19.7N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 20.5N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 21.5N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 24 2014\r\n\r\nVigorous deep convection has expanded in association with the\r\ntropical cyclone this evening, primarily in the southwestern\r\nsemicircle.  The asymmetric distribution of thunderstorms around the\r\nsystem is due to about 25 kt of northeasterly vertical shear being\r\ncaused by a strong upper-level anticyclone to its north.  The\r\ncurrent intensity is based upon 35 kt estimates from both the\r\nSatellite Analysis Branch and the Advanced Dvorak Technique, though\r\nthe Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch suggests a slightly\r\nstronger system.  Thus the cyclone is now named Tropical Storm\r\nRachel. The system may gradually intensify during the next two to\r\nthree days as the shear diminishes some.  However, Rachel should\r\nalso encounter cooler sea surface temperatures and drier low-level\r\nair as it moves toward the west-northwest.  The system is expected\r\nto peak in intensity as a moderate tropical storm around day 2 or 3,\r\nfollowed by a gradual weakening.  The NHC official intensity\r\nforecast is based upon the tightly clustered IVCN multi-model\r\nensemble and is about the same as the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass suggested a radius of maximum\r\nwind of around 40 nm, which helped to define the tropical-storm-\r\nforce wind radii now that the cyclone has strengthened.  The global\r\nand regional hurricane models suggest that Rachel will remain rather\r\nsmall in size.  A blend of these models with the climatology-\r\npersistence technique is the basis for the NHC wind radii\r\npredictions.\r\n\r\nA 2333Z SSMIS microwave image assisted in locating the center of\r\nRachel, as the low-level swirl has remain tucked just under the\r\nconvective overcast. Rachel is moving toward the west at about\r\n10 kt.  The tropical storm should turn toward the west-northwest\r\nduring the next two days as it moves around the periphery of the\r\nmid-level subtropical ridge.  In about three days, a strong\r\nshort wave trough will be passing north of Rachel over California.\r\nThe new 18Z GFS and the hurricane models run from it respond by\r\nturning Rachel northeastward toward Baja California, while the\r\nolder 12Z ECMWF and UK Met Office global models continue moving a\r\nweaker Rachel west-northwestward.  The NHC official track splits the\r\ndifference and is slightly eastward from that of the previous\r\nadvisory, but not as far eastward as the TVCE multi-model ensemble.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.3N 107.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.8N 108.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 16.9N 110.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.9N 112.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 18.6N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 19.7N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 21.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave data reveal that Rachel is still a sheared cyclone with\r\nthe center located to the northeast of the deep convection due to\r\nstrong upper-level northeasterly winds. The cloud pattern has\r\nchanged little, and Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB, SAB and ADT from\r\nCIMMS support an initial intensity of 35 kt. There is an opportunity\r\nfor Rachel to strengthen a little during the next 2 to 3 days as the\r\nshear decreases. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase\r\nagain, and the circulation will begin to move over cooler waters,\r\nresulting in gradual weakening.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and conventional satellite fixes indicate that Rachel is\r\nmoving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 11 kt. The ridge\r\nover Mexico which is controlling the track of Rachel is forecast\r\nto weaken as a strong mid-latitude trough approaches. This\r\nsteering pattern should favor a turn to the northwest and north\r\nbeyond 48 hours. In fact, track models are in better agreement and\r\nnow most of them favor a northward turn and a recurvature with a\r\ndecrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast period. By\r\nthen, Rachel is expected to be a weakening depression or a remnant\r\nlow. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one through 3\r\ndays. After that time, it was adjusted eastward a little bit to\r\nfollow the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 16.0N 108.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 16.8N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 17.8N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 18.7N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 19.5N 114.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 23.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014\r\n\r\nThe northeasterly shear that has been affecting the cyclone\r\nduring the past day or so appears to be decreasing, with the center\r\nof Rachel now located beneath the cold cloud tops.  Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB support an initial wind speed of 45\r\nkt for this advisory.  The shear is expected to further decrease\r\nover the next 24 to 36 hours and additional strengthening is likely\r\nduring this period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is above the\r\nprevious forecast and close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance.  After 48\r\nhours, Rachel will be moving over slightly cooler water and into a\r\ndrier airmass, which should cause steady weakening late in the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nA recent SSMIS overpass was very helpful in locating the center\r\nthis morning.  The fixes indicate an initial motion of 295 degrees\r\nat about 11 kt. Rachel should continue moving west-northwestward to\r\nthe south of a mid-level ridge over Mexico during the next 24 to 36\r\nhours.  After that time, a trough approaching the west coast of the\r\nUnited States will create a break in the ridge which should cause\r\nRachel to turn northwestward.  During the 3 to 5 day period, there\r\ncontinues to be large differences in the model solutions.  The GFS,\r\nGFDL, and HWRF take the cyclone northward, then northeastward, while\r\nthe ECMWF and UKMET show a weaker cyclone becoming nearly stationary\r\nwell southwest of the Baja peninsula.  The NHC track leans toward\r\nthe more northward solution, but it is not nearly as fast or as\r\nfar east as the GFS and GFDL models at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 16.3N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 17.1N 111.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 18.2N 112.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 19.0N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 19.8N 115.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 21.5N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 22.7N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 23.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014\r\n\r\nAfter strengthening earlier today, Rachel appears to have leveled\r\noff in intensity this afternoon.  The initial wind speed is held\r\nat a possibly generous 45 kt based on the latest satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.  The low-level center of the\r\nstorm is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep\r\nconvection due to about 15 kt of shear.  This shear is expected to\r\nlessen during the next couple of days, which should allow Rachel to\r\ngain strength.  By the end of the weekend and early next week, the\r\ncyclone is expected to move over cooler water, and into an\r\natmosphere of southwesterly shear and drier air.  These unfavorable\r\nconditions should cause a weakening trend.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term,\r\nbut is otherwise unchanged and is near the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nRachel is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by\r\nmid-level ridging to its north and northeast.  A large trough\r\ncurrently offshore of the west coast of the U.S. is expected to\r\nmove eastward causing the ridge to weaken and shift eastward as\r\nwell.  This change in the synoptic pattern should cause Rachel to\r\ngradually turn northward during the next few days.  By the end of\r\nthe forecast period, the weakening system is expected to slow down\r\nor become stationary when it becomes embedded in weak low-level\r\nsteering currents.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the left\r\nof the previous one and slower at the end of the period, following\r\nthe trend in the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 17.0N 110.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 18.7N 113.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 20.4N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 22.0N 116.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 22.8N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 23.1N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014\r\n\r\nWhile there is strong, deep convection associated with Rachel,\r\nmicrowave and last light visible imagery indicate that the tropical\r\nstorm is still being sheared with the center at the edge of the\r\nconvective overcast.  Subjective Dvorak assessments from TAFB and\r\nSAB as well as the CIMSS AMSU method suggest peak sustained winds of\r\nabout 45 kt, which is the initial intensity. While an upper-level\r\nanticyclone is contributing toward about 15 kt of northeasterly\r\nshear over Rachel currently, this should subside to quite low values\r\nfrom 24 through 72 hr.  However, at the same time, Rachel's track\r\nshould take it over gradually cooler waters and into much drier,\r\nstable air. The NHC intensity forecast calls for slow\r\nintensification through two days, followed by gradual weakening.\r\nThis prediction is based upon a blend of the LGEM and SHIPS\r\nstatistical and GFDL dynamical models and is about the same as in\r\nthe previous advisory.\r\n\r\nNo in situ observations were available for the tropical-storm-force\r\nwind radii, so no changes were made to the initial small size of\r\nRachel.  The global and regional hurricane models suggest that\r\nRachel will remain relatively small for the next few days, which is\r\nthe basis for the NHC wind radii forecast.\r\n\r\nRachel is moving toward the west-northwest at 13 kt, primarily being\r\nsteered by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its northeast.  The\r\ntropical storm should round the western periphery of the ridge in\r\nabout two to three days.  After that time, Rachel will meander as a\r\ndecaying vortex in the weak lower tropospheric flow.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is based upon the tightly clustered TVCE multi-model\r\nensemble and is about the same as that issued in the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 17.7N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 18.4N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 19.2N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.2N 115.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 20.9N 116.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave data indicate that Rachel's structure has changed\r\nlittle during the past few hours, and the maximum winds are\r\ntherefore held at 45 kt.  Deep convection remains limited to the\r\nsouthwest of the low-level center, although a recent expansion of\r\nthe cold cloud tops in infrared satellite imagery suggests that the\r\nnortheasterly shear may be relaxing just a bit.  The SHIPS guidance\r\nindicates that the shear should gradually diminish, reaching a\r\nminimum in about 36 hours, so gradual strengthening is anticipated\r\nup through that time.  After 36 hours, the shear is expected to\r\nincrease while Rachel moves over marginally cooler water and into a\r\ndrier, more stable environment.  Steady weakening is expected to\r\nbegin by 48 hours, with the cyclone likely becoming a remnant low\r\nby day 5.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is not too dissimilar\r\nfrom the previous one.  However, it should be noted that the\r\n60-kt forecast peak intensity is a little higher than all of the\r\nguidance except the HWRF.\r\n\r\nRachel's initial motion is 300/12 kt.  The track models are in good\r\nagreement during the first 36-48 hours, showing Rachel slowing down\r\nand turning north-northwestward toward a break in the subtropical\r\nridge.  There is significant divergence in the guidance after 48\r\nhours, however.  The notable outliers are the GFS and the GFDL\r\nensemble mean, which have a stronger cyclone being pulled\r\nnortheastward toward the Baja California peninsula by a deep-layer\r\ntrough over the southwestern United States.  The other models show\r\na weaker cyclone stalling and then turning southward or\r\nsouthwestward within the prevailing low-level flow.  Due to the\r\nmodel divergence, very slow motion is indicated between days 3-5,\r\nand Rachel is expected to become nearly stationary before drifting\r\nsouthwestward during its remnant low stage.  The guidance shifted a\r\nbit to the west on this cycle, and although the NHC forecast was\r\nalso nudged in that direction, it still lies on the eastern edge of\r\nthe envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 18.0N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 18.7N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 19.7N 115.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 20.6N 116.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 21.4N 116.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 22.7N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 23.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014\r\n\r\nThe organization of Rachel's cloud pattern has not changed this\r\nmorning. The center of the cyclone remains on the northeast\r\n(upshear) side and outside of a large mass of very cold-topped\r\nconvection, presumably a result of some northeasterly vertical wind\r\nshear. The deep convection continues to regularly burst, a trend\r\nthat has been observed for a few days now. The initial intensity\r\nestimate is held at 45 kt in agreement with the 1200 UTC Dvorak fix\r\nfrom TAFB.  Global models show Rachel moving underneath an upper-\r\nlevel ridge axis during the next 24 hours or so, which should result\r\nin a relaxation of the persistent shear and allow for some\r\nintensification since the storm will still be over warm enough\r\nwaters.  In 2-3 days, Rachel will have moved far enough to the north\r\nto experience an increase of southwesterly shear in response to a\r\nmid-latitude trough over the western United States.  That shear and\r\nincreasingly unfavorable thermodynamics factors, including somewhat\r\ncooler waters, are expected to hasten its weakening beyond 48 hours.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is not much different than the previous\r\none, and still shows remnant low status at the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nRachel continues on a west-northwesterly track of 295/12.  The\r\ncyclone is forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-\r\nnorthwest with a significant decrease in forward speed during the\r\nnext couple of days when it encounters a weakness caused by the\r\nearlier-mentioned western United States trough. By 48 hours, there\r\nis a rather distinct split in the track guidance, with the GFS-based\r\nmodel solutions carrying the cyclone quickly northward and\r\nnortheastward while the ECMWF/UKMET suggest a weaker cyclone\r\nsteered toward the west-northwest and west. The NHC track forecast\r\nstays left of but closer to the GFS through 48 hours due to Rachel's\r\nforecast intensification and then shows slow motion for the\r\nremainder of the forecast period.  The 48-120 hour portion of the\r\ntrack forecast is very near the multi-model consensus, TVCE, and it\r\ncould trend westward in future forecasts if confidence in a weaker\r\ncyclone at that time frame increases.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 18.2N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 19.0N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 20.0N 116.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 21.8N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 22.8N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.0N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 22.8N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014\r\n\r\nThe center of Rachel appears to be reforming a little closer to the\r\ndeep convection, and in fact looks somewhat elongated on the latest\r\nvisible imagery. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS satellite analyses\r\nstill show about 10 kt of shear affecting the cyclone, and overall\r\nthere has been little net change to the cloud pattern today. The\r\ninitial intensity remains 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate\r\nfrom TAFB. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over the next\r\n24 hours, which should allow for some gradual strengthening, but the\r\nSHIPS intensity forecast has trended downward this cycle along with\r\nthe GFDL. After 36 hours, gradual weakening is forecast as the\r\ncyclone moves into a drier and more stable environment over\r\nmarginal SSTs and decay to a remnant low is expected in 4 to 5 days.\r\nThe NHC forecast has been adjusted downward a little in the short\r\nrange toward the latest IVCN intensity consensus and is close to\r\nIVCN after that time.\r\n\r\nGiven the reformation of the center, the initial position is\r\nsouthwest of the previous advisory. Smoothing through this short-\r\nterm motion yields a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of\r\n295/10. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast has not\r\nchanged. Rachel is forecast to turn gradually northward into a\r\nbreak in the subtropical ridge with a decrease in forward speed\r\nduring the next couple of days. After that time, the decaying\r\ncyclone is forecast to move little in a region of weak steering\r\ncurrents, with a slow southwestward motion possible by the end\r\nof the period. There continues to be a large spread in the track\r\nguidance after 36 hours, with the GFS and GFDL taking the cyclone\r\nfarther north while the UKMET and ECMWF show a more westward to\r\nsouthwestward motion. The new NHC forecast track is generally\r\nbetween the two camps and is a little left of the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus and not far from the HWRF. This track is west of the\r\nprevious NHC advisory due to the initial position and motion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 18.1N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 18.7N 115.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 19.7N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 20.6N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 21.3N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014\r\n\r\nGeostationary and microwave satellite imagery show a much improved\r\nstructure for Rachel this evening.  A pronounced curved band has\r\ndeveloped and wrapped around the center of the cyclone, while a\r\nmid-level eye is seen in 2002Z AMSR-E, 2130Z AMSU, and 0127Z SSMIS\r\nmicrowave passes.  Correspondingly, the Dvorak classifications from\r\nTAFB and SAB have jumped up to a 3.5.  This supports a 55 kt\r\nintensity, which may be conservative as the CIMSS AMSU method\r\nsuggests maximum sustained winds of about 75 kt.  It appears likely\r\nthat Rachel is responding to a reduction in the vertical shear, as\r\nit has now dropped below 10 kt.  Rachel has about 24 to 36 hr of\r\nconducive environmental conditions remaining before the atmosphere\r\nthat it moves into becomes quite dry and stable. In about three\r\ndays, the vertical shear increases which should hasten the demise of\r\nthis system.  The NHC intensity prediction is based upon the IVCN\r\nmulti-model ensemble through 48 hr and upon the HWRF and GFDL\r\nhurricane models after that time. The peak intensity indicated here\r\nis above that from the previous advisory due to the jump in the\r\ninitial intensity.\r\n\r\nThe aforementioned AMSU pass also provided some guidance from the\r\nCIRA size technique for the initial tropical-storm-force wind radii,\r\nwhich have been expanded outward some as a result.  The forecast\r\nwind radii, however, are anticipated to not grow much, based upon a\r\nblend of the dynamical and climatological models.\r\n\r\nRachel's center apparently reformed southwestward closer to the\r\ndeep convection earlier today, as suggested by a late arriving\r\nWindSat microwave pass.  While the uncertainty in the initial\r\nposition is low, the current motion is a bit ambiguous due to the\r\nreformation.  It is estimated that the cyclone's center is moving\r\ntoward the west-northwest at around 10 kt, primarily due to\r\nsteering imparted by a mid-level subtropical ridge to its\r\nnortheast.  A vigorous shortwave trough near California is\r\nanticipated to induce a break in the ridge and allow Rachel to turn\r\ntoward the north-northwest at a slower rate of forward speed by\r\nSunday.  In about three days, a decaying Rachel will start\r\nmeandering in the weak low-level flow west of Baja California.  The\r\nNHC track forecast is based upon the TVCE multi-model ensemble,\r\nwhich shows substantial divergence in solutions late in the\r\nforecast period, and is slightly east of the track shown in the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 18.4N 115.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 19.1N 116.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 20.0N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 20.9N 116.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 21.5N 116.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 22.1N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z 21.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014\r\n\r\nRachel's convective structure has evolved since the last advisory.\r\nThe long curved band noted earlier has become broken and is\r\nseparated from a small, compact area of deep convection which has\r\ndeveloped over the low-level center.  An eye-like feature has\r\nalso occasionally appeared in infrared satellite imagery.  Maximum\r\nwinds are held at 55 kt based on a consensus of T3.5/55 kt Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.  Rachel is forecast to be in a\r\nlow-shear environment for the next 36 hours or so, and the\r\natmosphere should be sufficiently moist and unstable to support some\r\nstrengthening in the short term.  After 48 hours, southwesterly\r\nvertical shear of 15-20 kt is forecast to develop, and Rachel will\r\nbe moving into a much drier and stable environment.  The intensity\r\nmodels are in good agreement that Rachel should be at or just below\r\nhurricane intensity in 24 hours, which is indicated in the official\r\nforecast.  Thereafter, the dynamical models show a faster rate of\r\nweakening than the statistical models, and the NHC forecast closely\r\nfollows the multi-model consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nRachel has turned northwestward, or 315/7 kt, into a weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge caused by two deep-layer lows over California\r\nand the Rio Grande Valley.  As the low over California moves\r\neastward, steering currents are expected to collapse, and Rachel\r\nshould turn north-northwestward but slow down and become nearly\r\nstationary in 2-3 days.  Once vertical shear increases on day 3,\r\na less-vertically-deep Rachel is expected to begin drifting\r\nsouthwestward in the prevailing low-level flow.  The GFS, GFDL, and\r\nGFDL ensemble mean have begun to pull back a bit on their previous\r\ntrend of showing Rachel turning northeastward toward the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, although there is still considerable spread\r\nin the track guidance by days 4 and 5.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast essentially maintains continuity with the previous forecast\r\nand is not too far from the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 19.1N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 19.8N 116.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 20.7N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 21.5N 116.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 21.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 22.1N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 21.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014\r\n\r\nRachel continues to exhibit an occasional eye-like feature in\r\ninfrared satellite imagery, and this was also seen in an AMSR2 pass\r\njust after 0900 UTC. However, the overall convective pattern is not\r\nterribly impressive, with only a small area of deep convection near\r\nthe center and little in the way of banding. The initial intensity\r\nremains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB. With the inner core trying to organize, there is the potential\r\nfor Rachel to reach hurricane intensity during in the next 12 to 18\r\nhours before the thermodynamic environment becomes more hostile.\r\nAfter that time, Rachel will be moving over marginal SSTs and into\r\nan increasingly dry and stable atmosphere, which should result in\r\nsteady weakening. The new NHC forecast shows Rachel peaking in 12\r\nhours, and after that time is close to the IVCN intensity consensus\r\nwhile the cyclone decays.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 325/07. Rachel should continue\r\nturning poleward while it moves into a weakness in the subtropical\r\nridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the decaying\r\ncyclone will be caught in a region of weak steering currents, and a\r\nslow north-northwestward motion is shown at 36 to 48 hours. Later in\r\nthe period, the shallow cyclone should begin moving southwestward as\r\nit comes under the influence of a low-level ridge over the\r\nnortheastern Pacific. The track model guidance still shows a fair\r\namount of spread, but the GFS and GFDL models have continued to\r\ntrend southward this cycle. As a result, the TVCE multi-model\r\nconsensus has shifted to the left, and the latest NHC track has been\r\nadjusted in that direction at 36 to 48 hours. Otherwise, the new\r\nNHC forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory when\r\naccounting for the initial position and motion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 19.6N 116.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 20.3N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 21.2N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.7N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 21.7N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rachel","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014\r\n\r\nAn eye has become more persistent in geostationary imagery during\r\nthe past few hours, and cloud top temperatures have cooled in the\r\nconvective ring surrounding the eye. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB were both T4.0 at 1800 UTC, and the initial intensity is set to\r\n65 kt, making Rachel the 12th hurricane of the eastern North Pacific\r\nseason. The cyclone does not have much time to strengthen further,\r\ngiven that it will be moving over gradually cooler waters and into a\r\ndrier and more stable environment during the next day or so.\r\nWeakening is forecast to begin by 24 hours, and continue through the\r\nremainder of the period given the aforementioned unfavorable\r\nconditions and a forecast increase in shear. The cyclone should\r\nweaken to a remnant low in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis similar to the previous one and is close to the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now toward the north-northwest or 335/07.\r\nRachel is forecast to gradually turn northward by 24 hours as it\r\nmoves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Then, the decaying\r\ncyclone will be caught in a region of weak steering currents, and\r\nlittle net motion is expected on days 2 and 3. After that time, the\r\nremnant low should move southwestward as it comes under the\r\ninfluence of a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. There\r\ncontinues to be considerable spread in the track model guidance\r\nbeyond 24 to 36 hours, but the NHC forecast remains close to the\r\nprevious official forecast and is not too far from the TVCE\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on an ASCAT\r\npass around 18Z.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 20.3N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 21.1N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 22.0N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 22.3N 117.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 22.2N 117.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 21.7N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 20.8N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z 19.8N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rachel","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows that the eye of Rachel has become somewhat\r\nbetter defined during the past several hours, and that the cloud\r\ntops in the eyewall have cooled.  Satellite intensity estimates\r\nare now 77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate from the\r\nCIMSS ADT is 75 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 75 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 340/6.  Rachel is moving into a weakness\r\nin the subtropical ridge caused by a large deep-layer trough over\r\nthe western United States.  The large-scale models forecast the\r\ntrough to move eastward after 12-24 hours, leaving Rachel stuck in\r\nan area of weak steering currents for a day or two.  Beyond that\r\ntime, Rachel or its remnants should be steered southwestward by a\r\nlow-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific.  There is little\r\nchange in the guidance since the last advisory, and the new\r\nforecast track is almost identical to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nSome additional strengthening is possible tonight.  After that, a\r\ncombination of increasing shear and the entrainment of a dry and\r\nstable airmass should cause a quick weakening.  The new intensity\r\nforecast follows the previous forecast in calling for Rachel to\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low in about three days time.  The new\r\nforecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast from 12-48\r\nhours based on the initial intensity, and it is in best agreement\r\nwith the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 20.7N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 21.4N 116.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 22.1N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 22.0N 117.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z 19.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rachel","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014\r\n\r\nRachel's eye disappeared for a few hours, but it is now becoming\r\ndistinct again.  Final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB decreased at 0600\r\nUTC, but the initial intensity is held at 75 kt based on CI numbers\r\nof 4.5/77 kt and an ADT estimate of T4.4/75 kt.  If Rachel is going\r\nto strengthen further, it probably has another 6-12 hours to do so\r\nbefore vertical shear begins to increase out of the south and\r\nsouthwest.  In addition, Rachel will be moving into a drier\r\nenvironment over the next couple of days, and upwelling of colder\r\nocean water could have a greater-than-normal influence on the\r\nintensity since the cyclone will become nearly stationary in a day\r\nor two.  The SHIPS and LGEM models show Rachel increasing in\r\nstrength just a bit later today and then only gradually weaken the\r\nsystem through 48 hours.  In contrast, the GFDL, HWRF, and FSU\r\nSuperensemble show weakening beginning soon and predict a faster\r\nweakening rate during the next two days.  Given the hurricane's\r\nimproving appearance in satellite imagery, the official forecast\r\nstill allows some strengthening in the short term.  After 24 hours,\r\nthe NHC forecast shows steady weakening and essentially splits the\r\ndifference between the two model scenarios.\r\n\r\nRachel is moving slowly north-northwestward--335 degrees at 5 kt--\r\nthrough a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a deep-layer low\r\nover the western United States.  The steering currents near Rachel\r\nare forecast to collapse during the next few days after the\r\ndeep-layer low moves eastward, and the cyclone is expected to\r\nbecome nearly stationary in 36-48 hours.  Once the vertical shear\r\nincreases, the low-level circulation is expected to begin moving\r\nsouthwestward and west-southwestward in the trade wind flow.  The\r\ntrack guidance, in particular the ECMWF, is not as far south on\r\nthis cycle, and the new NHC track forecast is therefore shifted\r\nnorth and west during the remnant low phase.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 21.1N 117.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 21.6N 117.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 22.2N 117.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 22.4N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 22.2N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 21.6N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 21.3N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z 21.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rachel","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014\r\n\r\nRachel's cloud pattern has become much less organized. The central\r\ndense overcast has taken on a distorted appearance, with cold-topped\r\ndeep convection more asymmetrically distributed.  An intermittent\r\neye seen earlier in nighttime visible imagery disappeared several\r\nhours ago.  Although Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from\r\n0600 UTC, the initial intensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, given\r\nthe recent degradation of the cyclone's satellite signature.  A\r\nconsiderable increase in southwesterly shear is expected during the\r\nnext 24-48 hours in association with a deep mid-latitude trough\r\npassing through the western United States.  The increase in shear,\r\ncoupled with substantially less conducive thermodynamic factors, are\r\nexpected to result in steady weakening that could become more rapid\r\nthan indicated in the forecast.  The NHC wind speed forecast shows a\r\nfaster rate of weakening relative to the previous one, but remnant\r\nlow status is still indicated by day 3.\r\n\r\nRachel continues on a slow north-northwestward track, or 340/06, on\r\nthe western periphery of a mid-level ridge near western Mexico.\r\nThe cyclone's forward speed is expected to decrease further during\r\nthe next day or so as it reaches a col area, and Rachel may come to\r\na temporary halt in about 36 hours.  With significant weakening\r\noccurring during this time, a much-shallower Rachel should begin to\r\ncome under the influence of the low-level trade wind flow after\r\nthis time and turn southwestward and westward with increasing\r\nforward speed.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\r\none and the bulk of the track guidance but not as far south and\r\nwest as the ECMWF solution.  Only the GFS continues to insist on\r\na track farther to the right and faster as a consequence of a\r\nstronger and more coupled vortex, responding to the deep-layer flow\r\nassociated with the previously mentioned mid-latitude trough.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 21.5N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 22.0N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 22.4N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 22.3N 117.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 22.1N 117.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 21.3N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 21.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1200Z 20.5N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rachel","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Rachel has not changed very much in visible\r\nsatellite imagery during the past several hours.  A ragged\r\nbanded-type eye has occasionally been evident in visible imagery\r\nand recent microwave data has shown a similar feature.  The latest\r\nDvorak intensity estimates have decreased slightly so the initial\r\nwind speed has been reduced to 65 kt.  Increasing southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear and a less favorable thermodynamic environment\r\nare expected to cause steady weakening during the next couple of\r\ndays, and Rachel should weaken to a tropical depression in about\r\n48 hours.  The cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant\r\nlow shortly thereafter.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nRachel appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate\r\nof 340/4 kt.  The latest track guidance has become more divergent\r\nwith the GFS and HWRF taking Rachel more northward, then\r\nnortheastward in southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge over\r\nMexico and a trough moving across the western United States. On the\r\nother hand, the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean show less of a poleward\r\nmotion as the cyclone weakens and become a more shallow system. The\r\nNHC forecast leans toward the latter solution and shows Rachel\r\nmoving slowly northward during the next 24 hours, then turning\r\nwest-southwestward in the low-level flow after weakening occurs.\r\nThe new forecast is similar to, but a little slower than the\r\nprevious NHC advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 21.7N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 22.3N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 22.6N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.6N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 22.5N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 22.0N 118.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rachel","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 28 2014\r\n\r\nRachel has made a little bit of a resurgence since the previous\r\nadvisory, with a well-defined 15-20 nmi diameter low- to mid-level\r\neye apparent in various microwave satellite images. Visible\r\nsatellite imagery during the past few hours also indicates a small\r\nring of overshooting cloud tops beginning to encircle a ragged,\r\ncloud-filled eye. The only reason the initial intensity is being\r\nmaintained at 65 kt is due to the lack of persistence in the recent\r\nincrease in the inner-core convection.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 355/4 kt, which is based primarily on\r\nmicrowave satellite fix positions. The most recent NHC track model\r\nguidance has become less divergent since the previous advisory,\r\nwith the 18Z GFS model now taking Rachel more westward after 24\r\nhours. Overall, the models are in pretty good agreement on steering\r\ncurrents collapsing during the next 48 hours, resulting in Rachel\r\nbecoming nearly stationary during that time, followed by a westward\r\nor southwestward drift as a remnant low pressure system. The\r\nofficial forecast track is similar to the previous advisory\r\nadvisory track and the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nRachel is currently over 26C sea-surface temperatures, and the\r\nsmall cyclone will be moving over slightly cooler water during the\r\nnext 48 hours. The cooler water, in combination with increasing\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt by 36 hours,\r\nshould induce gradual weakening throughout the forecast period with\r\nRachel degenerating into a remnant low pressure system by 48 hours\r\nor so. This intensity forecast is consistent with a blend of the\r\nintensity consensus model IVCN and the Decay-SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 22.5N 117.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 22.8N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 23.0N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 22.8N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 22.5N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 22.4N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Rachel","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough Rachel's cloud pattern is still fairly circular on\r\nsatellite images, the area of deepest convection has been gradually\r\nshrinking.  The imagery also suggests increasing southwesterly\r\nshear, with high clouds extending farther to the northeast of the\r\ncyclone with time.  Dvorak intensity estimates remain at 65 kt from\r\nboth TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed also remains at that\r\nvalue.  Rachel is not likely to remain a hurricane much longer\r\nsince the global models show that southwesterly shear will persist\r\nand increase over the next day or two.  Steady weakening is\r\nforecast, and the official intensity forecast is the same as the\r\nprevious one and very close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to degenerate to remnant low status in a\r\ncouple of days.\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery indicates that the center of circulation is\r\ndisplaced a little to the south of the center of the cloud mass.\r\nBlending microwave and geostationary satellite fixes yields an\r\ninitial motion of about 360/4 kt.  With the system forecast to\r\nbecome increasingly shallow over the next few days, it will likely\r\nbe steered by the weak low- to mid-level flow, and decelerate even\r\nfurther.  Thus, Rachel is not expected to move much over the next\r\nday or so.  By the latter part of the forecast period, the\r\npost-tropical remnant low should move southwestward to\r\nwest-southwestward, following the tradewind flow.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is close to the previous one and is similar to the\r\nlatest ECMWF global model prediction.\r\n\r\nOnly slight adjustments to the wind radii were made, based on data\r\nfrom a couple of recent ASCAT overpasses.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 22.8N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 23.1N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 23.3N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 23.3N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 23.2N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 22.8N 118.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 22.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 29 2014\r\n\r\nRachel's cloud pattern has become considerably less organized.\r\nDeep convection associated with the cyclone has significantly\r\ndecreased in coverage and intensity during the past several hours.\r\nFirst-light visible images also indicate that the center has become\r\nexposed on the south side of the nearest convection, the remnants\r\nof what was a central dense overcast 6 to 12 hours earlier.  This\r\nchange in structure has resulted from strong upper-level south-\r\nsouthwesterly winds, which is confirmed by UW-CIMSS analyses and\r\nSHIPS model output diagnosing 20-25 kt of shear.  Satellite\r\nclassifications are decreasing, and were T3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt at\r\n1200 UTC from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  A blend of these yields\r\nan intensity of 50 kt, which is in line with data from an overnight\r\nASCAT pass.\r\n\r\nEven though Rachel will be over marginally warm waters during the\r\nnext several days, strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nassociated with a trough moving through the western United States\r\nshould cause the cyclone to decouple within 24 hours.  The shear, in\r\ncombination with increasingly less conducive thermodynamic factors,\r\nshould cause steady or even rapid weakening.  Rachel is likely to\r\nbecome a remnant low in about 24 hours, and dissipation is indicated\r\nafter 72 hours in agreement with the latest global model guidance.\r\n\r\nRachel's forward motion has decreased further, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 360/01.  While still a vertically coupled vortex,\r\nthe cyclone could inch northward or become stationary in a col area\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  Rachel should transition into a shallower\r\ncyclone after that time and be carried southwestward and westward\r\nwith some increase in forward speed by the low-level trade wind\r\nflow.  The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the\r\nprevious one but is adjusted slightly southward in light of the\r\ncyclone's reduction in forward speed.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 22.8N 117.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 23.1N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 22.9N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 22.7N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014\r\n\r\nRachel continues to slowly weaken. Visible satellite imagery shows\r\nits exposed low-level center located on the south side of a small\r\npatch of deep convection, with the remnant mid-level circulation\r\ndisplaced well to the northeast.  The cyclone's current ragged\r\nstructure is partly a result of persistent south-southwesterly shear\r\nof around 25 kt as diagnosed by UW-CIMSS analyses.  A 1715 UTC AMSU\r\nmicrowave pass also suggested that dry and stable air has been\r\nwrapping around the circulation of the storm. The initial intensity\r\nestimate is lowered to 45 kt based on peak winds of 43 kt from a\r\n1714 UTC ASCAT-B pass.\r\n\r\nWith strong southwesterly shear expected to continue and\r\nthermodynamic conditions likely to become even more unfavorable,\r\nfurther steady weakening is expected.  These hostile environmental\r\nfactors should cause Rachel to weaken to a remnant low in about 24\r\nhours and dissipate in 2-3 days, as shown in global model guidance.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast represents an update of the previous\r\none and is in good agreement with the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nRachel has been drifting steadily northward, and the initial motion\r\nestimate is 360/02.  In the next 12 hours or so, a slow northward\r\nmotion is likely to continue, so long as the cyclone maintains\r\nenough vertical integrity.  After that time, Rachel should\r\ntransition into a shallower vortex and be carried generally\r\nwest-southwestward with a modest increase in forward speed.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is adjusted a bit to the right and is somewhat south\r\nand west of the ECMWF, GFS, and multi-model consensus model, TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 23.0N 117.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 23.2N 117.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 23.1N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 23.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 22.8N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 22.6N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Lewitsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 29 2014\r\n\r\nA burst of deep convection with cloud tops of -70C to -75C\r\ndeveloped during the late afternoon in the same region where\r\nearlier ASCAT overpasses indicated several surface wind vectors of\r\n40-43 kt. As a result, the intensity at 0000 UTC synoptic time was\r\nmaintained at 45 kt. However, over the past couple of hours, cloud\r\ntops have warmed and decreased in areal coverage significantly, so\r\nthe advisory intensity has been lowered to 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt. Steering currents are\r\ncollapsing as Rachel moves into a large break in the subtropical\r\nridge created by a mid-latitude trough to the north of the cyclone.\r\nAs a result, Rachel is expected to become nearly stationary fairly\r\nsoon and meander in the same general area for the next 24 hours or\r\nso. After that, the ridge to the north of what should be a\r\nsignificantly weakened tropical cyclone is expected to build back\r\nin as the mid-latitude trough lifts out, driving Rachel or its\r\nremnants slowly toward the west or west-southwest until dissipation\r\noccurs in 72-96 hours. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory track and the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nRachel is not long for this world due to the combination of strong\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear, sea-surface temperatures less\r\nthan 26C, and a cooler and drier airmass working its way into the\r\ninner core region of the cyclone. As a result, the storm is expected\r\nto weaken to a remnant low pressure system within 24 hours and\r\ndissipate by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast closely\r\nfollows a blend of the Decay-SHIPS model and the consensus\r\nintensity model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 23.3N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 23.3N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 23.3N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 23.2N 118.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 23.1N 118.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 23.0N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rachel","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014\r\n\r\nRachel has lost all of its deep convection, although it is possible\r\nthat some sporadic bursts of showers and thunderstorms could return\r\nto the circulation today.  A couple of recent ASCAT passes missed\r\nthe radius of maximum winds, but using a blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set, perhaps\r\ngenerously, at 35 kt.  Southwesterly shear over Rachel is forecast\r\nto become even stronger, more than 30 kt, within a day or so and\r\ncontinued weakening is expected.  The system should degenerate into\r\na remnant low in 12-24 hours.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the model consensus, although just a little higher,\r\nsuggesting that the cyclone could weaken even faster than indicated\r\nhere.\r\n\r\nThere has been little movement over the past several hours, which\r\nwas anticipated by the track model guidance.  Rachel is in an\r\nenvironment of weak steering currents, and is expected to remain so\r\nthrough today.  A weak low-level ridge developing to the northwest\r\nand north is expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move\r\nvery slowly west-southwestward in 1-2 days, followed by a turn\r\ntoward the west.  The official track forecast is close to the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 23.3N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 23.2N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 23.1N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 23.0N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 22.8N 118.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 22.8N 120.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rachel","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that deep convection associated with\r\nRachel dissipated almost 12 hours ago, with the cyclone now\r\nconsisting of a tight swirl of low- to middle-level clouds. Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates continue to decrease, and the initial intensity\r\nis lowered to 30 kt in agreement with the latest satellite\r\nclassifications.  A continuation of southwesterly shear of around 30\r\nkt and very unfavorable thermodynamic factors suggest that deep\r\nconvection is unlikely to redevelop, and Rachel should weaken\r\ninto a remnant low later today.  Global model guidance shows the\r\nremnant low degenerating into an open trough in about 2 days and\r\ndissipating shortly thereafter.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the previous forecast and the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nRachel has been nearly stationary for the last 6-12 hours, trapped\r\nin an environment of weak steering.  The shallow cyclone should\r\ndrift west-southwestward and westward during the next couple of days\r\naround the eastern side of a weak low-level ridge until dissipation.\r\nThe track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one,\r\nnearly between the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 23.1N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 23.0N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 22.9N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 22.7N 118.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Ramos\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Rachel","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP182014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014\r\n\r\nRachel artfully draws to a close. Deep convection associated with\r\nRachel dissipated about 15 hours ago and it is unlikely to redevelop\r\ndue to unfavorable thermodynamic factors and strong shear.  Based on\r\nthese conditions, the cyclone is being declared a post-tropical\r\nremnant low at this time. Dvorak intensity estimates have decreased\r\nfurther and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. Global\r\nmodel guidance shows the remnant low degenerating into an open\r\ntrough by Friday.  The official intensity forecast is close to the\r\nprevious forecast and the GFS model.\r\n\r\nDuring the last couple of hours, the now-shallow vortex associated\r\nwith Rachel has taken on a southward drift.  A slow southwestward\r\nmotion is expected during the next two days as it continues to move\r\naround the eastern periphery of a low-level ridge.  The track\r\nforecast is essentially an update of the previous one, nearly\r\nbetween the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Rachel by the National Hurricane\r\nCenter. For additional information on the remnant low please see\r\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 22.9N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 22.8N 117.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 22.6N 118.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 22.4N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 22.2N 119.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Ramos\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure south of Manzanillo has become better\r\ndefined today and has enough organized deep convection to be\r\nconsidered a tropical cyclone. The cloud pattern consists of a\r\nsmall area of central convection west of the partially exposed\r\nlow-level center and a curved band wrapping around the north and\r\nwest side of the circulation. The initial intensity of 25 kt is\r\nbased on the latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The structure\r\nof the cyclone is consistent with moderate easterly shear as shown\r\nby the SHIPS model. This shear is forecast to diminish in the next\r\n12 to 24 hours, which should allow for some intensification while\r\nthe cyclone is moving over warm SSTs for the next couple of days.\r\nLater in the period, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler SSTs\r\nwest of the Baja California peninsula and encounter a somewhat drier\r\nairmass, which should lead to gradual weakening. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to the HWRF and the SHIPS model through 48 hours\r\nand is near the SHIPS forecast after that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 290/07, since the\r\ncenter has only recently been apparent in visible imagery. In the\r\nshort range, most of the track model guidance, with the exception\r\nof the GFDL and the GFDL ensemble mean, shows the cyclone moving\r\ngenerally west-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a\r\nsubtropical ridge. Model spread increases markedly beyond 36 hours.\r\nThe GFS and ECMWF are well to the left showing a more westward\r\nmotion, while the aforementioned GFDL and its ensemble mean show a\r\nnorthwestward and then northward motion well to the right of the\r\nrest of the guidance. The HWRF and UKMET models are in between these\r\nsolutions, showing a northward turn around day 3. The NHC track\r\nforecast is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus\r\nout of respect for the GFS and ECMWF solutions, but remains well to\r\nthe right of the consensus of those models at days 3 through 5.\r\nGiven the large spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of\r\nthe track forecast late in the period, including any potential\r\nthreat to the Baja California peninsula, is lower than usual.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 17.3N 104.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 17.8N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 19.2N 108.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 19.7N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 21.0N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 23.5N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 01 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with some\r\ndeveloping convective bands. The center, however, is still exposed\r\ndue to shear and is located on the northeastern edge of the\r\nthunderstorm activity. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on\r\nT2.0 Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB and the University of Wisconsin\r\nCIMMS. Global models and SHIPS guidance indicate that the shear will\r\nlikely diminish, and since the cyclone is heading toward a pool of\r\nwarm waters, some strengthening is forecast during the next 3 days.\r\nAfter that time, the cyclone should begin to interact with cooler\r\nwaters and a more stable environment, resulting in gradual\r\nweakening.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest\r\nor 295 degrees at 9 knots. A nearly permanent mid-level high\r\npressure system over northern Mexico has been controlling the\r\ntracks of many of the cyclones in this region, and this is same\r\nstory all over again. The NHC forecast calls for a west-northwest to\r\nnorthwest track during the next 3 days with a slow turn to the north\r\nthereafter. By then, the steering currents will probably collapse\r\nand the cyclone will meander while it weakens.  The NHC forecast is\r\njust a little bit to the south of the previous one following the\r\ntrend of the multi-model consensus TVCN, and considering that the\r\nECMWF and the latest GFS models are farther south than the\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 17.8N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 18.2N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 18.7N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 19.1N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 19.6N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 21.0N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 24.0N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that curved banding features have become\r\nbetter established during the last several hours, and the low-level\r\ncenter is now estimated to be located beneath the deep convection.\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the University of\r\nWisconsin-CIMSS all support raising the initial wind speed to 35\r\nkt, making the system Tropical Storm Simon.  This is the 18th named\r\nstorm of the busy 2014 hurricane season in the east Pacific basin.\r\nSimon is expected to strengthen during the next few days while the\r\nstorm remains over warm water and within a fairly low wind shear and\r\nmoist environment.  The combination of an increase in southwesterly\r\nshear and cooler water should stop the strengthening trend in about\r\n3 days, and induce a gradual weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis a little above the intensity model consensus, given the expected\r\nfavorable conditions during the next few days, leaning toward the\r\nmore aggressive SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nSimon is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt, and this general\r\nmotion is expected to continue for the next 2 to 3 days while the\r\nstorm is steered by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast.\r\nThe model guidance is in fair agreement during that time period,\r\nand the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  The guidance diverges significantly beyond that time\r\nperiod, however, with many of the models showing a turn to the\r\nnorth and then northeast toward large-scale troughing over the U.S.\r\nConversely, the ECMWF shows less interaction with the trough and\r\ntakes the storm farther west.  The NHC track forecast lies on the\r\nwestern side of the guidance envelope at days 4 and 5, similar to\r\nthe previous forecast, but confidence at the longer range is low at\r\nthis time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 18.1N 106.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 18.5N 107.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 18.9N 108.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 19.9N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 21.5N 114.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 23.2N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 02 2014\r\n\r\nFirst-light visible imagery shows that Simon is gradually becoming\r\nbetter organized.  The center is under a ragged central dense\r\novercast, and outer bands are occurring in all quadrants except the\r\nnorth.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt,\r\nwhile recent AMSU and SATCON estimates from CIMSS are 35-40 kt.\r\nThe initial intensity remains 35 kt, but this could be a little\r\nconservative.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/9, and this general motion is expected to\r\ncontinue for the next 2 days or so while the storm is steered by\r\nmid-level ridging to its north and northeast.  The model guidance is\r\nin fair agreement during that time period, and the NHC track\r\nforecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.  The\r\nguidance continues to show significant divergence after 48 hours.\r\nThe GFS, GFDL, and HWRF, show a northeastward turn between 72-120\r\nhours, while the the ECMWF and UKMET show a generally northward\r\nmotion.  In addition, the NAVGEM shows a west-northwestward motion\r\nthrough the entire forecast period.  The track forecast compromises\r\nbetween these extremes by showing a slow northward motion by 120\r\nhours.  Overall, the new forecast is similar to, but faster than,\r\nthe previous forecast.  However, it is notably slower than the\r\nconsensus model TVCE from 72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nSimon is forecast to remain in a light vertical wind shear\r\nenvironment and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the\r\nnext 48 hours.  This should allow at least steady strengthening, and\r\nthere is an above normal chance for rapid strengthening as shown by\r\nthe Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model.  After 48 hours,\r\nthe center is expected to move over cooler sea surface temperatures\r\nand into an area of westerly shear.  These conditions should cause a\r\nweakening trend, albeit at a slower rate than seen during Rachel a\r\nfew days ago.  The new intensity forecast is increased above that of\r\nthe previous forecast and is in best overall agreement with the\r\nSHIPS model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 18.4N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.9N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.3N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 19.8N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.4N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 24.0N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 25.0N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014\r\n\r\nThe center of Simon has either re-formed or has made a large wobble\r\nduring the past few hours, as a TRMM overpass at 1827 UTC suggests\r\nthe center is well southwest of the position seen in earlier SSM/IS\r\noverpasses.  This requires a southward adjustment of the initial\r\nposition.  The new advisory position is still north of the TRMM\r\nposition, and an additional adjustment may be required later if no\r\nsubsequent northward wobble occurs.  The initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 45 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB, along with CIMSS ADT and CIRA AMSU estimates.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 280/8.  For the next day\r\nor so, mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of the cyclone\r\nshould steer Simon generally westward to west-northwestward.  From\r\n24-72 hours, the cyclone should turn more northward as it approaches\r\nthe western end of the ridge.  The guidance continues to show\r\nsignificant divergence after that.  The GFS, GFDL, and HWRF, show a\r\nnortheastward turn between 72-120 hours and bring Simon close to\r\nBaja California in 96-120 hours.  On the other hand, the the ECMWF\r\nand UKMET show a generally northwestward motion that keeps the\r\ncenter well away from land.  The track forecast compromises between\r\nthese extremes by showing a slow northward motion by 120 hours.  The\r\nnew forecast is shifted to the south and west of the previous\r\nforecast based on current trends, and it is in best overall\r\nagreement with the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nSimon is forecast to remain in a light vertical wind shear\r\nenvironment and over sea surface temperatures of 28-29C for the\r\nnext 48 hours, which should allow at least steady strengthening.\r\nAfter that, movement over cooler water should cause weakening.  The\r\nnew intensity forecast is increased over the previous forecast in\r\nbest overall agreement with the SHIPS model, and it lies near the\r\nupper edge of the intensity guidance.  An alternative forecast\r\nscenario is that rapid intensification begins in the next 12-24\r\nhours, with Simon becoming significantly stronger than forecast.\r\nThis scenario is supported by above average probabilities in the\r\nRapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model, and by the TRMM\r\ndata, which suggests Simon is developing a small inner core.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.3N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 18.6N 109.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 19.0N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 19.7N 112.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 20.7N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 22.5N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 25.0N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 02 2014\r\n\r\nA series of microwave overpasses during the past few hours\r\nconfirmed that Simon is a little south and east of previous\r\nestimates, and that the cyclone is now moving westward or 270\r\ndegrees at 4 kt. Although the cloud pattern is gradually becoming\r\nbetter organized with more symmetric convection and better-defined\r\noutflow, Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB indicate that the winds\r\nare still 45 kt. The CIMSS-ADT indicate that Simon could be a little\r\nstronger.\r\n\r\nSimon is forecast to move soon over a pool of even warmer water\r\nand the shear is light. This should result in strengthening, and the\r\nNHC forecast calls for Simon to become a hurricane in about 24\r\nhours. In fact, rapid intensification is not out of the question\r\nsince the SHIPS-RI index has increased again tonight. After 3 days,\r\nthe circulation of the cyclone will begin to feel the influence of\r\ncooler waters and a stable environment, and gradual weakening\r\nshould commence.\r\n\r\nThere is high confidence that Simon will gradually turn to the\r\nnorthwest with an increase in forward speed during the next 3 days\r\nwhile the cyclone is located on the southwestern side of the high\r\npressure system over Mexico. Most of the track guidance agree with\r\nthis scenario. After that time, the confidence in the track forecast\r\nis quite low since the GFS together with its dependent models\r\nrecurve the cyclone toward the Baja California peninsula. On the\r\ncontrary, the ECMWF keeps Simon moving westward over open waters.\r\nThe NHC forecast is in the middle of these two extremes, and for now\r\nkeeps Simon drifting northward by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 18.1N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 18.3N 109.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 18.9N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 20.7N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 22.5N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 24.0N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite images early this morning indicate that the\r\ninner-core region of Simon is not particularly well organized. A\r\nlow-level eye feature has been intermittent since about 0000 UTC,\r\nbut the most recent images do not show the eye feature any longer.\r\nSubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest that\r\nSimon has strengthened to 55-60 kt based on a CDO feature. However,\r\ntwo ASCAT overpasses at 0412 UTC and 0504 UTC only indicated surface\r\nwinds of 39 kt and 41 kt, respectively. Even allowing for some\r\nundersampling due to the compact size of the cyclone likely only\r\nyields 45-50 kt. Owing to the lack of persistent central features,\r\nthe initial intensity is being held at 45 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is an uncertain 280/06 kt and is based primarily\r\non microwave satellite fixes. There remains high confidence that\r\nSimon will continue to move westward to west-northwestward for the\r\nnext 2-3 days as the cyclone navigates around the western periphery\r\nof a strong deep-layer ridge located north of the cyclone. After\r\nthat time, however, the model guidance diverges quite significantly.\r\nThe overwhelming majority of the guidance recurves Simon toward the\r\nnorth by Day 4 and toward the northeast by Day 5. However, the very\r\nreliable ECMWF model takes Simon farther west through Day 5 and\r\ndoes not recurve the cyclone until after this forecast period.\r\nOwing to the significant differences in the various model solutions,\r\nand out of respect for the ECMWF model, and given that mid-level\r\nnorthwesterly flow patterns are not conducive for recurvature\r\nscenarios, the official forecast was only nudged a little to the\r\nwest of the previous forecast track.\r\n\r\nSimon will be moving over warmer water with SSTs near 28-29C during\r\nthe next 24-36 hours while the deep-layer vertical shear is light.\r\nHowever, modest easterly mid-level shear that has been undercutting\r\nthe otherwise impressive outflow pattern may continue to\r\noccasionally disrupt the inner core convection before Simon reaches\r\ncooler water and a drier, more stable airmass by Days 4 and 5. As\r\na result, only slow steady strengthening is forecast, which is\r\nsimilar to the SHIPS intensity model and the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 18.3N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 18.7N 110.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 20.0N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 21.0N 115.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 22.5N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 24.0N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 25.0N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014\r\n\r\nFirst-light visible imagery and a 1205 UTC SSMI/S overpass indicate\r\nthat Simon has become a little better organized.  The storm has a\r\ncentral dense overcast with outer bands present in all quadrants,\r\nand the microwave data shows a mid-level eyewall forming near or\r\nover the low-level center.  However, the cloud pattern continues\r\nto show some signs of easterly shear.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates are 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and recent CIMSS ADT, AMSU,\r\nand SATCON estimates are 50-55 kt.  The initial intensity is thus\r\nincreased to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 285/8.  Simon should move generally\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as it is steered by\r\nthe subtropical ridge to the north and northeast.  After that time,\r\nthe track guidance becomes very divergent.  The GFS, GFS ensemble\r\nmean, and UKMET forecast Simon to recurve through a break in the\r\nridge near 115W and move inland over Baja California and\r\nnorthwestern Mexico. The ECMWF and the NAVGEM show Simon moving much\r\nfarther west, with a northward turn delayed until the cyclone is\r\nwest of 120W. Given the magnitude of the disagreement, the official\r\nforecast will follow the trend of the previous forecast in showing\r\na slow northward to northeastward motion from 72-120 hours.  The new\r\nforecast track is and update of the previous track and similar to,\r\nbut slower than, the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nSimon will be moving over warmer water with SSTs near 28-29C during\r\nthe next 24-36 hours while the deep-layer vertical shear is\r\nexpected to be light.  This should allow continued strengthening\r\nuntil the cyclone encounters cooler waters in 36-48 hours.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in\r\nbest agreement with the SHIPS model.  There are two major sources\r\nof uncertainty in the intensity forecast.  The first is that rapid\r\nintensification is still a possibility during the next 24 hours or\r\nso, although the probabilities shown in the SHIPS Rapid\r\nIntensification Index are slowly decreasing.  Second, how much cool\r\nwater Simon will encounter is dependent on the track. The GFS track\r\nwould keep the storm over relatively warm water, while the ECMWF/\r\nNAVGEM track would take it over much cooler water.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 18.6N 109.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 19.1N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 19.6N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 20.5N 115.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 21.5N 116.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 25.5N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014\r\n\r\nRecent visible imagery shows that Simon is getting better\r\norganized, with the inner core convection now wrapping around the\r\ncenter.  In addition, a recent TRMM overpass shows a well-defined\r\nlow-level circulation center, and a recent ASCAT overpass shows a\r\nfew vectors of 50-55 kt.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 285/8.  Simon should move generally west-\r\nnorthwestward for the next 24-36 hours as it is steered by\r\nthe subtropical ridge to the north and northeast.  After that time,\r\nthe track guidance remains very divergent.  The GFS, GFS ensemble\r\nmean, and GFDL forecast Simon to recurve through a break in the\r\nridge near 116W-117W and move inland over the Baja California\r\npeninsula and northwestern Mexico.  The GFS has shifted somewhat\r\nwestward since the last advisory, but this did not change its\r\nforecast scenario.  The ECMWF, NAVGEM, and Canadian models show\r\nSimon moving farther west, with a northward turn delayed until the\r\ncyclone is near 120W. The ECMWF and Canadian subsequently show Simon\r\ndissipating over water. Overall, the guidance envelope has shifted a\r\nlittle to the west at 48-120 hours since the last advisory, and the\r\nofficial forecast does as well.  The new forecast lies between the\r\nTVCE consensus and the Florida State Superensemble from 48-120\r\nhours, but is notably slower than both of those models.\r\n\r\nSimon will be moving over warmer water with SSTs near 28-29C while\r\nthe deep-layer vertical shear is expected to be light.  This should\r\nallow continued strengthening until the cyclone encounters cooler\r\nwaters in about 36 hours.  The new intensity forecast has been\r\nincreased over the previous forecast from 12-96 hours based on\r\ncurrent trends and the latest SHIPS model guidance.  There remain\r\ntwo major sources of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.  The\r\nfirst is that rapid intensification could occur during the next 24\r\nhours or so.  Second, how much cool water Simon will encounter is\r\ndependent on the track. The GFS/GFS Ensemble Mean/GFDL track would\r\nkeep the storm over relatively warm water, while the ECMWF/NAVGEM/\r\nCanadian track would take it over much cooler water.\r\n\r\nThe ASCAT data shows that Simon remains a very small cyclone in\r\nterms of size, with tropical-storm force winds extending no more\r\nthan 40 n mi from the center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 18.8N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 19.2N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.0N 114.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 20.9N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 21.9N 116.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 24.5N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 03 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nSatellite estimates from TAFB, SAB and University of Wisconsin\r\nCIMSS indicate that Simon has reached hurricane intensity with 65\r\nkt. Simon is the 13th hurricane of the quite active eastern North\r\nPacific hurricane season of 2014, and another cyclone moving very\r\nnear or over Socorro Island, Mexico. Hourly observations from that\r\nisland provided by the Mexican Navy have been very useful in\r\ndetermining the structure of Simon.\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is better organized tonight with a small but well-\r\ndefined inner core as indicated by the convective ring displayed in\r\nseveral microwave overpasses during the past several hours. Simon\r\nhas the opportunity to strengthen a little more during the next 24\r\nhours as it continues to move over a pool of 29.5 degree Celsius\r\nwater and extremely low shear. After 36 hours, the circulation of\r\nSimon will begin to weaken as it moves over cooler waters and into a\r\nmore stable environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the\r\ntrend of the guidance which suggests Simon reaching its peak\r\nintensity in a day or so.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest\r\nor 285 degrees at 10 kt. However, Simon is reaching the southwestern\r\nedge of the high pressure ridge centered over Mexico, and\r\napproaching a large mid-level trough over the Central Pacific. This\r\npattern calls for a gradual turn toward the northwest and north\r\nduring the next 3 days as indicated in the official forecast. Beyond\r\n3 days, the steering pattern becomes more complex, and the cyclone\r\neither recurves to the northeast as suggested by the GFS or begins\r\nto meander as forecast by the ECMWF. Since Simon is expected to be a\r\nweaker storm by the end of the forecast period, it will likely move\r\nlittle while embedded within the much lighter low-level flow. The\r\nlast portion of the forecast is highly uncertain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 19.2N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 19.9N 113.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 21.8N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 22.5N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 23.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 25.0N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite imagery between 0000 UTC and 0500 UTC indicate\r\nthat the inner-core convection had been unable to consolidate around\r\nthe center and maintain a closed eye feature. A 0442 UTC AMSU\r\noverpass revealed that the eye of Simon was open in the northwest\r\nquadrant. Since that time, however, infrared satellite imagery\r\nindicates that a warm spot has developed near the center of a more\r\nsymmetrical and growing CDO feature, suggesting that Simon might\r\nfinally be getting more vertically coherent. The initial intensity\r\nhas been increased to 75 kt based on a Dvorak intensity estimate of\r\nT4.5/77 kt from TAFB and the recent appearance of a warm spot in the\r\nCDO cloud canopy.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/10 kt, which is based on several microwave\r\nsatellite positions. There is basically no significant change to the\r\nprevious track forecast or reasoning. The 00 UTC model guidance\r\nshows less divergence than previous runs, especially through 36\r\nhours. After that time, the models show some noticeable difference\r\non when and where Simon is expected to gradually recurve to the\r\nnortheast when the cyclone nears the subtropical ridge axis that is\r\nsituated along 23N-24N latitude. The GFS, GFS-ensemble mean, and\r\nHWRF models show a sharper and earlier turn to the northeast by\r\nabout 48 hours due to a weaker ridge, whereas the ECMWF, UKMET,\r\nGFDL and NAVGEM models have Simon moving farther west and making a\r\nwider and slower turn. Given the high amplitude nature of the large\r\nmid-latitude ridge over the western U.S. and eastern Pacific and the\r\ndeepening trough over the eastern United States, which should help\r\nto sustain the current steering flow pattern, the official forecast\r\nleans more toward the farther west and slower recurvature model\r\nsolutions. The NHC forecast track is similar to but a little to the\r\nwest of the previous forecast track and the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe global models indicate that the current impressive outflow and\r\nlow vertical wind shear patterns surrounding Simon are expected to\r\npersist for at least the next 36 hours or so. However, the most\r\nsignificant strengthening, possibly even rapid intensification, is\r\nmost likely to occur during the next 24 hours while the hurricane\r\nremains over sea-surface temperatures of 27-28C and where the depth\r\nof the warm water is sufficient to prevent any significant cold\r\nupwelling beneath Simon. By 36 hours, passage over cooler SSTs\r\nshould induce gradual weakening, followed by more rapid weakening on\r\nDays 4 and 5 when southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to\r\nincrease to 25-40 kt. Simon is forecast to become a remnant low by\r\n120 hours, but this could occur sooner if the cyclone moves farther\r\nwest than the official forecast track is indicating, which would\r\nbring the cyclone over colder water. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft is scheduled to conduct a research flight into Simon around\r\n1800 UTC today, at which time a better estimate of the strength of\r\nthe hurricane will be obtained.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 19.5N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 20.2N 114.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 21.4N 116.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 22.3N 117.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 23.3N 117.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 24.4N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 25.2N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 26.3N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014\r\n\r\nInfrared satellite imagery indicates that Simon has undergone rapid\r\nintensification during the past several hours.  A small eye has\r\nformed, and the cloud tops surrounding the eye are in the -75C to\r\n-85C range.  Satellite intensity estimates have increased to 102 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and 90 kt from SAB, and the latest estimated from the\r\nCIMSS ADT is 90 kt.  Based on these, the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 95 kt, and this could be conservative.  A NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Simon later\r\ntoday.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 295/11.  Simon is expected to move\r\nwest-northwest to northwestward for the next 36 hours or so as is\r\napproaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge to its north.  After\r\nthat, the system is expected to turn northward and northeastward,\r\nalthough there remains significant spread in the track guidance on\r\nwhen and how fast this will occur.  The GFS, GFS ensemble mean,\r\nNAVGEM, and the GFDL show Simon moving quickly to the northeast,\r\neventually making landfall on the Baja California peninsula and in\r\nnorthwestern Mexico.  The ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models show the turn\r\noccurring later and farther west, and these models forecast the\r\ncyclone to dissipate over water west of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  The forecast track continues to compromise between these\r\ntwo extremes in showing a slow northeastward motion after\r\nrecurvature. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track\r\nand is slower than the model consensus.\r\n\r\nHow long the current rapid intensification will continue is\r\nuncertain, as Simon is now moving over decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures.  The new intensity forecast follows the guidance trend\r\nof showing 12 hours more strengthening.  Simon is now forecast to\r\nbecome a major hurricane, and it would not be a surprise if it\r\nreached a higher peak intensity than currently forecast. After 12\r\nhours, cooler waters under the forecast track should result in a\r\nweakening trend, and this should become more pronounced after 48\r\nhours due to increasing shear.  The new intensity forecast shows\r\nrapid weakening after 48 hours, with Simon expected to become a\r\nremnant low by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted\r\nthat, if Simon follows the GFS forecast track, it would likely\r\nweaken more slowly than currently forecast since it would stay over\r\nwarmer water and encounters less shear.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 20.2N 113.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 21.0N 115.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 22.2N 116.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 23.1N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 23.7N 117.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft, carrying meteorologists from the\r\nMeteorological Service of Mexico, reports that Simon has become a\r\nmajor hurricane.  The aircraft measured 700 mb flight-level winds of\r\n114 kt, and the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer estimated\r\nsurface winds of 104 kt.  The minimum reported pressure was 950 mb\r\ninside a 7 n mi wide eye.  Based on this information, the initial\r\nintensity is increased to 105 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/12.  Simon is expected to move generally\r\nnorthwestward for the next 24-36 hours or so as is approaches a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge to its north.  After that, the\r\nsystem is expected to turn northward and northeastward.  There have\r\nbeen some changes in the track guidance since the last advisory.\r\nThe ECMWF and Canadian models have shifted to the right and show a\r\nfaster northward motion, with the ECMWF now calling for landfall on\r\nthe Baja California peninsula in about four days.  The GFS, NAVGEM,\r\nand the GFDL continue show Simon moving quickly to the northeast,\r\nwith the GFS forecasting landfall on the Baja California peninsula\r\nin about three days.  The new forecast track has not changed much in\r\ndirection since the last advisory, but it has a faster forward\r\nspeed. That being said, the new forecast is still slower than the\r\nconsensus models, and additional adjustments to the speed could be\r\nrequired on later advisories.\r\n\r\nA combination of microwave imagery and aircraft data suggest that\r\nSimon is about to start an eyewall replacement cycle.  Some\r\nadditional strengthening could occur in the next few hours before\r\nthe eyewall replacement and decreasing sea surface temperatures end\r\nintensification.  A weakening trend should begin after 12 hours due\r\nto the cooler water, and this trend should accelerate after 36 hours\r\nas the cyclone encounters increasing shear and a very dry air mass.\r\nThe new intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous\r\nforecast in making Simon a remnant low by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  An alternative scenario is that Simon could make landfall\r\nin Mexico as a weakening tropical cyclone if it moves as fast as the\r\nGFS is forecasting.\r\n\r\nSimon is the eighth major hurricane of the 2014 Eastern North\r\nPacific Hurricane season.  This ties the record for major\r\nhurricanes set in 1983, 1992, and 1993.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 20.6N 115.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 21.5N 116.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 22.7N 117.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 23.5N 117.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 24.1N 117.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 26.5N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 27.5N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 04 2014\r\n\r\nAfter the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft left Simon earlier today,\r\nsatellite images revealed that the eye became quite distinct and\r\nsurrounded by very deep convection.  Dvorak subjective and\r\nobjective numbers from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS jumped to T6.0 on\r\nthe Dvorak scale. Based on this data, the initial intensity was\r\nadjusted upward to 115 kt. This makes Simon the 6th Category Four\r\nHurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale this season.\r\n\r\nSimon reached 115 kt just before entering a region of cool waters,\r\nand as we speak, a portion of the circulation is already doing so.\r\nMost of the global models increase the shear as the cyclone moves\r\nnorthward toward the mid-latitude westerlies.  Based on these two\r\nfactors, the NHC forecast calls for significant weakening during the\r\nnext few days.  In fact, if Simon reaches Baja California, it is\r\nlikely to be a weak tropical storm or a tropical depression.\r\n\r\nSimon is already turning and is now moving toward the northwest or\r\n315 degrees at 9 kt. The ridge that has been steering Simon is\r\nforecast to weaken and shift southward. This pattern will move Simon\r\nnorthward until the cyclone encounters the mid-latitude westerlies,\r\nand a recurvature toward Baja California will then begin in 48\r\nhours.  One large uncertainty is how fast Simon will move after\r\nrecurvature. The GFS and the ECMWF are now in better agreement in\r\naccelerating the cyclone, but many of the other models are not quite\r\nso fast. The NHC forecast is not as fast as the GFS/ECMWF pair at\r\nthis time, but I would not be surprised if a faster motion has to be\r\nindicated in the next forecast.\r\n\r\nThe trend of models suggests that moisture from Simon could bring\r\nanother heavy rain event to the southwestern United States in a\r\nfew days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 21.4N 115.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 22.4N 117.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 23.5N 117.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 24.4N 117.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 25.2N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 27.0N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 30.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014\r\n\r\nSimon peaked around 0000 UTC based on various satellite intensity\r\nestimates and microwave satellite imagery indicating that an eyewall\r\nreplacement was well underway at that time. Since then, more recent\r\nconventional and microwave satellite imagery indicates that the\r\ninner-core convection has eroded significantly, especially in the\r\nsouthwestern semicircle, and that the eye is rapidly becoming less\r\ndistinct. The initial intensity of 100 kt, which could be generous,\r\nis based on a blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. A steadily\r\nweakening Simon is forecast to move around the western periphery of\r\na deep-layer ridge that extends from central Mexico westward to\r\nsouthern Baja California Sur for the next 48 hours, and then recurve\r\nto the northeast as the cyclone comes under the influence of\r\nmid-level southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching weak shortwave\r\ntrough. As the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically shallow,\r\nthe system is expected to slow down until it reaches the latitude\r\nof recurvature along 24N-25N, after which a gradual increase in\r\nforward speed is expected. The official forecast track is just an\r\nupdate of the previous advisory track and is close to the consensus\r\nmodel TVCN.\r\n\r\nSimon is now located over sub-26C sea-surface temperatures and is\r\nheading for cooler water. The cyclone is expected to remain in\r\nunfavorable oceanic and thermodynamic conditions for at least the\r\nnext 72 hours, during which time southwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nis forecast to increase to more than 25 kt by 48 hours. These\r\nhostile conditions are expected to result in rapid weakening of\r\nSimon, with the cyclone becoming a remnant low pressure system by 96\r\nhours, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is a little lower\r\nthan the previous advisory, and essentially follows the intensity\r\nconsensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture\r\nassociated with the cyclone is expected to spread across northern\r\nBaja California, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger another heavy rain event in those\r\nregions in a few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 22.1N 116.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 23.0N 117.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 24.0N 117.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 24.9N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 25.6N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 27.6N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 28.9N 114.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/0600Z 30.6N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014\r\n\r\nSimon continues to weaken.  The distribution of deep convection has\r\nbecome more asymmetric during the last 12 hours, and there has been\r\na general warming of cloud top temperatures. The cyclone's cloud\r\ncanopy has also been expanding over the northern semicircle while\r\neroding some to the south.  This transformation of the cloud pattern\r\nis primarily related to an increase in southwesterly shear over the\r\nhurricane, as diagnosed by UW-CIMSS shear analyses and SHIPS model\r\noutput.  A blend of Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB\r\nis used to reduce the initial intensity to 85 kt.\r\n\r\nAs Simon gains latitude during the next couple of days, a\r\nfurther increase in shear is expected in association with a mid-\r\nto upper-level shortwave trough several hundred miles west of the\r\ncoast of southern California.  The abrupt and substantial increase\r\nin shear, combined with water temperatures around 25 deg C and other\r\nconsiderably less conducive thermodynamic conditions, should result\r\nin a rapid decay of the cyclone.  Global models show the low- to\r\nmid-level centers of Simon decoupling around 48 hours, and Simon\r\nshould become a remnant low in 72 hours, if not sooner. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast, like the previous one, shows rapid weakening\r\nover the next 48 hours and is in excellent agreement with the latest\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 325/09.  Simon is moving into a\r\nregion of weak steering on the western periphery of a subtropical\r\nridge centered near western Mexico.  This synoptic pattern should\r\nresult in the cyclone's gradual turning toward the north with a\r\ndecrease in forward speed over the next day or so.  The previously\r\nmentioned shortwave trough should cause Simon to turn northeastward\r\nwithin 48 hours, with Simon or its remnants likely moving over the\r\nnorth-central portion of the Baja California peninsula later in the\r\nforecast period.  The NHC forecast has not changed much relative to\r\nthe previous one and remains close to the multi-model consensus,\r\nsubstantially slower than the GFS solution which brings Simon inland\r\nover northwestern Mexico in 72 hours.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture\r\nassociated with the cyclone is expected to spread across the\r\nnorthern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into\r\nthe U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in\r\nthose regions in a few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 22.9N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 23.6N 117.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 24.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 25.4N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 26.2N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 28.2N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 29.7N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Simon","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Simon has found that\r\nthe cyclone's maximum winds continue to decrease quickly.  The\r\nplane measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 73 kt and\r\nsurface-based SFMR winds as high as 58 kt in the northeastern\r\nquadrant.  Based on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 65 kt, which could be generous.  UW-CIMSS analyses and\r\nthe SHIPS output indicate that southwesterly shear has increased to\r\nabout 20 kt, and satellite imagery suggests that Simon's circulation\r\nis beginning to decouple.  With the cyclone expected to remain over\r\n24-25C water and in a highly sheared environment during the next few\r\ndays, continued rapid weakening is anticipated.  The updated NHC\r\nforecast is lower than the previous forecast mainly due to the\r\nadjusted initial intensity, and Simon is likely to become a tropical\r\ndepression in 36 hours and a remnant low by 48 hours, before it\r\nreaches the Baja California peninsula.  Forecast fields from the\r\nglobal models indicate that the cyclone will have dissipated over\r\nnorthwestern Mexico by day 4, which is indicated in the official\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nSimon has turned north-northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n330/8 kt.  The hurricane is currently moving around the western\r\nperiphery of a mid-level high centered near the west coast of\r\nMexico, and it should turn northward and then northeastward\r\naround this feature during the next 48-72 hours.  The model\r\nguidance is in relatively good agreement on the future track of\r\nSimon, but there continues to be disagreement on how fast Simon or\r\nits remnants reach the Baja California peninsula.  For example, the\r\nGFS and ECMWF solutions are about 24 hours apart on when they bring\r\nthe center of Simon to the coast.  The updated NHC track forecast\r\nis a little faster than the previous one after 24 hours but is\r\nrelatively close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, deep moisture\r\nassociated with the cyclone is expected to spread across the\r\nnorthern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into\r\nthe U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in\r\nthose regions in a few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 23.4N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 24.2N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 25.2N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 26.2N 117.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 27.5N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 30.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 05 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Simon continues to slowly degrade\r\nthis evening.  The cloud tops have gradually warmed and recent\r\nmicrowave data indicate that the low-level center is located to the\r\nsouthwest of the main convective mass due to moderate southwesterly\r\nshear.  The latest Dvorak Data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are\r\n3.5, but current intensity numbers remain higher due to Dvorak\r\nweakening constraints.  The initial wind speed has been lowered to\r\n60 kt, closer to the data T-numbers and a little below what was\r\nsupported by the earlier NOAA aircraft data.\r\n\r\nIncreasing southwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures,\r\nand drier air should cause continued weakening during the next\r\ncouple of days.  Simon is forecast to become a tropical depression\r\nwithin 36 hours and should degenerate to a remnant low by Tuesday,\r\nbefore the center reaches the Baja California peninsula.  The\r\nupdated NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the\r\nSHIPS/LGEM guidance and is close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nSimon is moving north-northwestward or 345 degrees at about 6 kt.\r\nThe cyclone should turn northward, then north-northeastward during\r\nthe next 24 hours around the western side of a mid-level high\r\nlocated near the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Although the track\r\nguidance generally agrees on this scenario, there continues to be\r\ndifferences in how soon Simon or its remnants will reach the Baja\r\npeninsula.  The GFS takes the cyclone across the Baja peninsula in\r\nabout 48 hours, while the ECMWF and UKMET shows this occurring about\r\na day later.  The NHC track forecast remains in between these\r\nsolutions and is close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated\r\nwith this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during\r\nthe next few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 23.8N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 24.6N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 25.7N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 26.9N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 28.1N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 30.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014\r\n\r\nSimon's cloud pattern continues to deteroriate.  Microwave data\r\nindicate that the cyclone's low-level center is exposed to the\r\nsouthwest of the main convective mass due to strong southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear.  The remaining central convection is no longer\r\nvery deep either, with cloud top temperatures having risen to -50\r\nto -60 deg C.  A large plume of stratiform rain and high clouds\r\nalso extends well north and east of the center, though even this\r\narea has been shrinking.  The initial wind speed is reduced to 50 kt\r\nbased on a blend of Final T-numbers of 3.0/45 kt and 3.5/55 kt from\r\nTAFB and SAB, respectively, which should provide a reasonable\r\nestimate of the intensity in cases of rapid weakening.\r\n\r\nExtremely strong west-southwesterly vertical shear of 30-40 kt\r\nwill cause a decoupling of the cyclone during the next day or two,\r\nwhile very unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should result in a\r\nloss of deep convection.  This should cause the rapid weakening\r\ntrend observed during the past 24 hours to continue, and remnant low\r\nstatus is now predicted in 36 hours or perhaps sooner.  The remnant\r\ncirculation could dissipate prior to reaching the Baja California\r\npeninsula, as indicated by the latest SHIPS model output, or in the\r\nvery least arrive in a greatly weakened state.  The NHC wind speed\r\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one in agreement with\r\nthe latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nSimon has turned northward, or 360/06, around the western periphery\r\nof a subtropical ridge extending westward near the southwestern\r\ncoast of Mexico.  A shortwave trough moving toward southern\r\nCalifornia should turn the cyclone north-northeastward in the next\r\n12 to 24 hours, but Simon will have just begun to recurve when it\r\nshears apart.  The track guidance shows the remnant circulation\r\ncontinuing north-northeastward at varying forward speeds, with the\r\nGFS still much faster than the ECMWF and UKMET.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is very near the previous one and the multi-model consensus\r\nthrough 48 hours but is slower after that time to acknowledge the\r\npossibility that a weaker system than depicted in global model\r\nfields might not reach the northern Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated\r\nwith this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during\r\nthe next few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 24.4N 117.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 25.3N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 26.4N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 27.6N 116.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 28.8N 115.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 30.2N 114.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2014\r\n\r\nSimon's cloud pattern continues to deteriorate...with almost all of\r\nthe remaining deep convection displaced well to the east and north\r\nof the low-level center.  Using a blend of Dvorak T-numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB yields a current intensity estimate of 40 kt.  The\r\nvertical shear over the cyclone is currently near 25 kt, and is\r\nforecast to increase to 40-50 kt within the next couple of days.\r\nGiven the hostile dynamical environment, continued steady weakening\r\nis expected.  The official forecast shows Simon becoming a remnant\r\nlow in 36 hours, although this event may well occur sooner than\r\nthat.\r\n\r\nThe motion is now just east of due north or 010/6 kt.  Simon is\r\nmoving along the northwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level\r\nanticyclone.  An approaching shortwave trough should cause the\r\ncyclone to move north-northeastward, with the remnant low moving\r\nacross the northern Baja California peninsula and then into extreme\r\nnorthwestern mainland Mexico and the southwestern United States over\r\nthe next couple of days.  The official track forecast follows the\r\ndynamical model consensus, TVCE, rather closely.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated\r\nwith this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during\r\nthe next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local\r\nweather office for information on hazards specific to your area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 25.1N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 25.9N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 27.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 28.1N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 29.4N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 32.0N 112.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014\r\n\r\nAlthough the tropical cyclone has very little deep convection\r\nremaining, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that the system had\r\nnot weakened as much as earlier estimated.  Data from that pass\r\nshowed that the current intensity is about 45 kt.  Water vapor\r\nimagery shows quite a bit of southwesterly shear affecting Simon at\r\nthis time, and dynamical models show the shear becoming even\r\nstronger within a day or two.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nabove most of the numerical guidance and shows the system\r\ndegenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours.  However, since the\r\nASCAT data revealed a slightly larger and stronger cyclone, and\r\nconsidering the uncertainties in the forecast track, it is prudent\r\nto issue a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of\r\nthe Baja peninsula at this time.\r\n\r\nThe motion continues about the same as before, or 010/6 kt.  There\r\nis little change to the track forecast or reasoning.  Simon is\r\nmoving around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high\r\npressure area.  An approaching shortwave trough should cause the\r\ntropical cyclone or its remnant low to move north-northeastward\r\nover the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is a\r\nblend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, with the former\r\nguidance farther north and the latter guidance farther south.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated\r\nwith this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during\r\nthe next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local\r\nweather office for information on hazards specific to your area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 25.8N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Simon has changed little since the previous\r\nadvisory.  The tropical cyclone continues to produce a small area\r\nof deep convection well to the north of the exposed low-level\r\ncenter.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to\r\nslowly decrease and the initial wind speed has been lowered to 40 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  Westerly shear of 30 kt or more, along with\r\ncool water, and a drier mid-level atmosphere should cause the\r\ntropical storm to weaken during the next day or so.  Simon is\r\nexpected to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone by late Tuesday\r\nand dissipate within 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe latest satellite fixes indicate that Simon has turned\r\nnorth-northeastward or 015/7 kt.  Simon should move north-\r\nnortheastward to northeastward in southwesterly flow between a\r\nmid-level ridge to its southeast and an approaching mid-latitude\r\ntrough.  The NHC track forecast lies between the ECMWF and the more\r\npoleward GFS.  The new track is close to the previous advisory\r\nthrough 24 hours, but has been adjusted a little northward\r\nthereafter.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated\r\nwith this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during\r\nthe next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local\r\nweather office for information on hazards specific to your area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 26.5N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 27.5N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 29.8N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 30.9N 114.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Simon consists of a tight swirl of low\r\nclouds with some patches of convection to the northeast of\r\nthe center. A recent ASCAT overpass indicated that there are\r\n35-kt winds associated with the circulation. These winds were\r\nprimarily occurring to the southeast and northwest of the center. A\r\nstrong shear is forecast to remain over the cyclone, and Simon is\r\nexpected to become a post-tropical cyclone in about a day, and then\r\ndissipate over the rugged terrain of Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nSimon is moving toward the north-northeast or 015 degrees at 6 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is already embedded within the mid-latitude\r\nsouthwesterly flow and this general motion should continue until\r\ndissipation.  The NHC forecast is very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated\r\nwith this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during\r\nthe next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local\r\nweather office for information on hazards specific to your area.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 27.1N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 28.4N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 29.3N 115.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 30.5N 115.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Simon","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014\r\n\r\nThe deep convection associated with Simon has diminished even\r\nfurther, with only a small patch of showers remaining near the\r\nnorth-central Baja California peninsula.  Unless significant\r\nconvection returns to the circulation later today, the cyclone\r\ncould degenerate into a remnant low by tonight.  The intensity is\r\nmaintained at 35 kt for now, based mainly on continuity from the\r\nearlier ASCAT pass.  The surface circulation of Simon or its remnant\r\nlow is likely to dissipate while it moves into the southwestern\r\nUnited States, unless it fails to survive its passage over the\r\nmountainous Baja peninsula during the next day or so.\r\n\r\nThe motion is just slightly faster than before, or 025/8 kt.  With\r\nthe cyclone expected to remain embedded in low- to mid-level\r\nsouth-southwesterly flow, this motion should continue until the\r\nsystem loses its identity.  The official forecast is close to\r\nTVCN, the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the\r\nrugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated\r\nwith this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert\r\nSouthwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during\r\nthe next few days.  Please refer to statements from your local\r\nweather office for information on hazards specific to your area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 27.7N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 28.7N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 30.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 31.8N 113.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Simon","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT pass from a few hours ago indicates that there are no\r\nlonger winds of tropical storm force in the circulation.  Therefore\r\nthe system is being downgraded to a depression and the tropical\r\nstorm watch for Baja California is discontinued.  The current\r\nintensity is 30 kt, and since the wind shear over Simon is forecast\r\nto be very strong and even increase a little more over the next day\r\nor so, additional weakening is expected.  The interaction\r\nwith land could cause even more weakening than indicated here.\r\nIn any event, given the lack of deep convection, the system is\r\nlikely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight.\r\n\r\nThe north-northeastward motion continues, at around 030/6.\r\nA consensus of the dynamical guidance calls for this general\r\ndirection of motion with a little acceleration, for the next 24-36\r\nhours.  This will take Simon, or its remnant low, across\r\nnorth-central Baja California and into Mainland Mexico.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it\r\nacross the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture\r\nassociated with this system is expected to spread across the\r\nnorthern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into\r\nthe U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those\r\nregions during the next few days.  Please refer to statements from\r\nyour local weather office for information on hazards specific to\r\nyour area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 27.9N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 28.8N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 30.5N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 32.2N 113.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Simon","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP192014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192014\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014\r\n\r\nSimon has been devoid of organized deep convection for more than 12\r\nhours.  Strong shear and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment\r\nshould prevent any significant redevelopment of convection, and the\r\nsystem is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time.\r\nBased on earlier ASCAT data, the initial wind speed remains 30\r\nkt for this advisory.  The low should weaken during the next day or\r\nso, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will become\r\nan open trough within 24 to 48 hours as it interacts with land.\r\n\r\nThe low has turned northeastward this evening with an initial motion\r\nestimate of 040/6 kt. A northeastward motion with some increase in\r\nforward speed is expected until dissipation occurs.  This will take\r\nthe cyclone, or its remnant, across north-central Baja California\r\nand into Mainland Mexico.\r\n\r\nEven if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it\r\nacross the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture\r\nassociated with this system is expected to spread across the\r\nnorthern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into\r\nthe U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those\r\nregions during the next couple of days.  Please refer to statements\r\nfrom your local weather office for information on hazards specific\r\nto your area.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Simon.  For additional information on the remnant low please see\r\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 28.1N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP202014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014\r\n\r\nThe tropical disturbance south of Mexico has developed deep\r\nconvection organized in rainbands today.  Correspondingly, the\r\nsubjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have come in at\r\n1.5 and 2.0, respectively. Additionally, ship and ASCAT\r\nscatterometer observations suggest that a well-defined closed\r\ncirculation has formed.  Thus the system is being started as\r\na tropical cyclone in this advisory. The two ASCAT passes this\r\nafternoon suggest peak winds of 30-35 kt, though these are along the\r\nedge of the swath and may not be reliable.  Finally, a couple of\r\nships at 18Z indicated winds of 30-35 kt.  This relative bounty of\r\nobservations indicates an intensity of 30 kt, though this may be\r\nsomewhat conservative.\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression appears to be in an environment conducive\r\nfor further intensification in the short term, as water temperatures\r\nare near 30C, vertical shear is very weak, and the atmosphere is\r\nquite moist in the low levels and supportive of deep convection.\r\nIntensification is shown, quite similar to a blend of the SHIPS\r\nstatistical model and the GFDL and HWRF dynamical models.  A 48 hr\r\npoint is shown for continuity, but the system is unlikely to exist\r\nthat long as a tropical cyclone over the high terrain of Mexico.  An\r\nalternative scenario - supported by the ECMWF and GFDL models - is\r\nthat the cyclone reaches the coast, but does not press inland,\r\nmeandering just offshore as a tropical cyclone for a longer time\r\nthan indicated here.\r\n\r\nThe location and motion of the cyclone's center have substantial\r\nuncertainty, though it appears to be moving toward the north at\r\nabout 7 kt.  The tropical depression is being steered primarily due\r\nto the interaction of deep-layer southwesterlies equatorward of the\r\ncyclone with a weak ridge to its northeast.  The system should slow\r\nits forward speed during the next couple days as the steering flow\r\nweakens.  The NHC forecast track is based upon the TVCE multi-model\r\nensemble.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from this system is expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in\r\nportions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially\r\nnear areas of elevated terrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 15.4N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 16.1N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 16.7N  99.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 17.2N  99.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 17.5N  99.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Trudy","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-10-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP202014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 17 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the cyclone is becoming better\r\norganized with very deep convection near the center and significant\r\nbands in the southern semicircle.  Microwave satellite data and\r\nradar data from Acapulco also confirm this trend, with some evidence\r\nof some inner-core features forming.  Dvorak intensity estimates are\r\nincreasing, and the initial intensity is set to 35 kt, in best\r\nagreement with the Data-T number from TAFB.  Although the\r\nenvironment is quite favorable for intensification, the cyclone\r\ndoesn't have much time before it makes landfall.  Thus, the official\r\nforecast keeps the previous peak intensity prediction of 45 kt,\r\nwhich lies on the higher side of the consensus.\r\n\r\nBest estimate of initial motion is northward at about 4 kt.\r\nDeep-layer southerly flow should steer Trudy generally northward\r\nuntil landfall within 24 hours.  Guidance has trended a little\r\nslower after 12 hours, and the new NHC forecast reflects that trend.\r\nAlthough there is still some chance that the cyclone lingers near\r\nthe coast, the surface circulation will probably get disrupted by\r\nthe very high terrain, so dissipation is expected in 36-48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from this system is still expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall that will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides in\r\nportions of southern Mexico during the next few days, especially\r\nnear areas of elevated terrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 16.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 16.5N  99.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 16.8N  99.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 17.0N  99.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Trudy","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-10-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP202014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\nCorrected typo in sentence referring to rapid intensification\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery and radar data from Acapulco suggest that Trudy is\r\nintensifying. The cyclone has recently formed an inner core, and\r\nthe nascent central dense overcast (CDO) is quickly becoming better\r\ndefined. A 10 to 15 n mi eye feature within the CDO has also closed\r\noff and become more circular within the past few hours as seen on\r\nradar imagery. Dvorak intensity estimates are generally increasing,\r\nand the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt, slightly above the\r\nlatest UW-CIMSS ADT CI value. Trudy is embedded in a very moist and\r\nlight-shear environment over 30 deg C waters, all of which favor\r\ncontinued intensification.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a\r\nnearly 70 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity\r\nduring the next 24 hours. The only inhibiting factor is the\r\ncyclone's proximity to land, which would end the current\r\nintensification phase.  Given the current trend, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast is increased significantly over the previous one and is\r\nmuch higher than all of the available intensity guidance. A major\r\ncaveat to the forecast is that the predicted intensity could be too\r\nlow should the cyclone remain offshore longer than anticipated.\r\n\r\nRadar imagery shows that Trudy has been drifting slowly eastward,\r\nwith a rather uncertain initial motion estimate of 080/02. The\r\nsynoptic pattern suggests that Trudy should generally be steered\r\nvery slowly toward the northeast or east around the northern\r\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge located well to the southeast during\r\nthe next day or so. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the\r\neast of the previous one and is farther east than the HWRF and GFS\r\nensemble mean on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, with\r\nlandfall predicted in roughly 12 hours.\r\n\r\nBased on the revised track and intensity forecast, the government of\r\nMexico has issued a hurricane watch from east of Acapulco to Laguna\r\nde Chacahua.\r\n\r\nIt is worth emphasizing that the primary threat from this system is\r\nwill be the torrential rains, which will likely produce flash\r\nflooding and mud slides in portions of southern Mexico during the\r\nnext few days, especially near areas of elevated terrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  98.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 16.4N  98.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 16.6N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Trudy","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-10-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP202014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\nRadar from Acapulco Mexico and microwave data show that the center\r\nof Trudy crossed the coast about 60 n mi east of Acapulco around\r\n1000 UTC this morning. Since that time, surface observations and\r\nsatellite images indicate that the circulation is becoming disrupted\r\nby the high terrain. However, it is estimated that winds of 40 kt\r\nare still occuring near the coast associated with the southern\r\nportion of the circulation.\r\n\r\nTrudy has been moving northward or 360 degrees at 4 kt. The\r\nsteering currents are very weak and track guidance shows little\r\nmotion during the next 24 hours or so. On this basis, the NHC\r\nforecast calls for little motion.  Since Trudy is already inland\r\nover high terrain, additional weakening is anticipated, and the\r\ncyclone is forecast to be a remnant low by Sunday or even sooner.\r\n\r\nGiven that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to move little,\r\ntorrential rains are expected to continue during the next couple\r\nof days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in portions of\r\nsouthern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated terrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 17.2N  98.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 17.5N  98.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 17.5N  98.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Trudy","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-10-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP202014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\nRadar from Acapulco, surface observations, and satellite imagery\r\nindicate that the circulation of Trudy is becoming disrupted by the\r\nhigh terrain. While no direct measure of its intensity is available,\r\na reasonable spin down of the peak winds suggest about 30 kt at the\r\nadvisory time.  As the center will remain inland over high terrain\r\nfor the next day or so, Trudy should become a remnant low shortly\r\nand then dissipate.\r\n\r\nTrudy has been moving north-northeastward at about 5 kt, though the\r\ninitial position is quite uncertain.   The low-level steering\r\ncurrents become very weak and track guidance shows little\r\nmotion during the next 24 hours or so. Thus the NHC track\r\nforecast calls for little motion until dissipation.\r\n\r\nGiven that Trudy or its remnants are forecast to remain nearly\r\nstationary, torrential rains are expected to continue during the\r\nnext couple of days, resulting in flash flooding and mud slides in\r\nportions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of elevated\r\nterrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 17.2N  98.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 17.3N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 17.3N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Trudy","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-10-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP202014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF TRUDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 18 2014\r\n\r\nSurface observations and satellite imagery indicate that the\r\nlow-level circulation of Trudy has dissipated.  Thus, this will be\r\nthe last advisory on this system.  Even though the cyclone has\r\ndissipated, the global models only move the remnants slowly\r\nnortheastward over the next couple of days.  This pattern should\r\ncontinue the threat of heavy rains, resulting in flash flooding and\r\nmudslides in portions of southern Mexico, especially near areas of\r\nelevated terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 17.4N  98.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF TRUDY\r\n 12H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2014-10-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the low pressure area south of\r\nAcapulco, Mexico, has become more concentrated overnight, and recent\r\nmicrowave and conventional satellite imagery suggest that the\r\nlow-level center has become better defined.  Therefore, the system\r\nis being designated as a tropical depression.  The satellite data\r\nindicate that the center is located near the southern edge of the\r\nmain convective mass.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and\r\nSAB are 2.5 and 1.5, respectively.  A blend of these estimates\r\nsupport an initial wind speed of 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe depression is over warm water and expected to remain in a low\r\nshear environment during the next several days.  The main limiting\r\nfactor will be some drier air in the low to mid-levels.  As a\r\nresult, gradual strengthening is predicted during much of the\r\nforecast period.  The NHC forecast is a little above the intensity\r\nguidance through the first couple of days.  After 72 hours, the\r\nNHC forecast is in good agreement with the HWRF which brings the\r\ncyclone to hurricane strength in about 4 days.  Increasing\r\nsouth-southwesterly shear could halt any additional strengthening\r\nafter that time.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  The\r\ndepression is forecast to turn west-southwestward later today as a\r\nmid-level ridge builds to the north and northwest of the cyclone.\r\nThe ridge is forecast to shift eastward during the next few days,\r\nwhich should cause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward, then\r\nnorthwestward in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, the tropical\r\ncyclone is forecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough\r\napproaches the Baja California peninsula.  The track guidance is in\r\ngood agreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle\r\nof the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 11.0N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 11.1N 100.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 10.8N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 10.3N 102.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 10.1N 104.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 10.9N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2014-10-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 30 2014\r\n\r\nThe depression has become a little better organized with a more\r\nprominent central dense overcast feature forming overnight. However,\r\nrecent microwave images show that the center remains on the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the deep convection, suggesting that\r\nsouthwesterly shear continues to affect the depression.  Although\r\nthe overall satellite presentation has improved, Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed will\r\nconservatively remain 30 kt.\r\n\r\nAlthough the depression is over warm water, southwesterly shear and\r\ndry air in the low- to mid-levels are expected to continue for\r\nthe next day or two.  As a result, the latest model guidance does\r\nnot show a lot of strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues the\r\ntrend of showing only slow intensification.  After that time, the\r\nglobal models forecast a reduction in the shear, along with an\r\nincrease in moisture. These conditions should promote more\r\nsignificant strengthening at longer ranges.  The NHC forecast is\r\nclosest to the SHIPS models at days 3-4, and remains above the model\r\nconsensus after considering the favorable large-scale environment.\r\nIncreasing south-southwesterly shear could halt any additional\r\nstrengthening after that time.\r\n\r\nThe center appears to have reformed a little northeast of the\r\nprevious estimates closer to the stronger thunderstorm activity,\r\nleading to an uncertain initial motion estimate of west at 5 kt.\r\nThe depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward and\r\nsouthwestward during the next 36 hours while a mid-level ridge\r\nbuilds to the north and northwest of the cyclone. The ridge is\r\nforecast to shift eastward during the next few days, which should\r\ncause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward and then northwestward\r\nin 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is\r\nforecast to turn northward while a mid-latitude trough approaches\r\nthe Baja California peninsula.  The official NHC forecast is a\r\nlittle faster than the consensus after accounting for the\r\nunrealistically slow HWRF solution, and is very close to the\r\nprevious forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 11.5N 100.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 11.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 10.7N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 10.4N 103.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 10.4N 105.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 11.9N 108.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 20.0N 108.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":3,"Date":"2014-10-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images show that the center of the cyclone\r\nremains near the southwestern edge of the deep convection.  Still,\r\nthe convective organization has improved from a few hours ago, with\r\na distinct band on the northeast side of the system.  Dvorak\r\nestimates and scatterometer data support an initial wind speed of 35\r\nkt for this advisory.  Vance is the 20th named storm of the eastern\r\nNorth Pacific hurricane season, the most number of named storms in\r\nthe basin since 1992.\r\n\r\nThe scatterometer data suggests that Vance is now moving about\r\n260/4.  A southwestward motion is expected tomorrow as a ridge\r\nbuilds to the north of the cyclone.  The storm should turn westward\r\nand west-northwestward by 72 hours while it moves across the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of the ridge.  Vance will likely turn\r\nnorthward or north-northeastward at long range ahead of a\r\nmid-latitude trough diving over Baja California into the eastern\r\nPacific.  While there is broad agreement on the general synoptic\r\npattern, the models have a stronger ridge than the last cycle,\r\nleading to the storm moving farther to the west and south.  This\r\nshift in the steering has led to a slower solution at long range\r\nby almost every reliable model.  The official NHC prediction is\r\nshifted westward and southward throughout the forecast period, and\r\nfurther adjustments could be required on the next advisory if model\r\ntrends continue.\r\n\r\nAlthough Vance is expected to remain over warm water for the next\r\nseveral days, it is currently struggling with dry air entrainment\r\nand southwesterly shear.  Most of the models respond to this\r\nenvironment by showing little significant intensity change during\r\nthe next 24 hours, so the official forecast will follow suit.\r\nAfter that time, the global models continue to show reduced shear,\r\nwith an increase in low- to mid-level moisture.  These conditions\r\nshould allow for Vance to become a hurricane in a few days,\r\nalthough guidance is not in particularly good agreement on this\r\nscenario.  At long range, there is high uncertainty in the\r\nintensity forecast, with the models generally showing more shear\r\nthan the last cycle.  Thus the intensity prediction is lowered some\r\nfrom the previous NHC forecast, although it remains on the higher\r\nside of the guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 11.0N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 10.6N 101.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 10.1N 102.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z  9.9N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 10.1N 105.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 12.0N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":4,"Date":"2014-10-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 30 2014\r\n\r\nVance has strengthened a little this evening.  Infrared satellite\r\nimages indicate that deep convection has increased slightly to the\r\nnortheast of the center and in a band on the south and east sides of\r\nthe circulation.  A blend of the latest Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and the University of Wisconsin-CIMSS supports\r\nraising the initial wind speed to 40 kt.  Southerly to southwesterly\r\nshear and dry air in the low- to mid-levels of the atmosphere are\r\ncurrently affecting Vance, and these conditions are expected to\r\npersist for about another day.  Therefore, only slow strengthening\r\nis predicted during that time.  Over the weekend, however, the\r\natmosphere is expected to moisten near the storm while the shear\r\nlessens, providing a better opportunity for more significant\r\nstrengthening.  By the end of the forecast period, the global models\r\nshow a sharp increase in southwesterly shear, which should cause the\r\ncyclone to begin weakening.   The NHC intensity forecast lies\r\nbetween the SHIPS model and the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe storm has been moving slowly west-southwestward during the past\r\n6 to 12 hours.  A mid-level ridge located to the north and northwest\r\nof Vance is expected to steer the cyclone west-southwestward to\r\nwestward during the next day or two.  After that time, a gradual\r\nturn to the north and then northeast is forecast as the ridge\r\nweakens and shifts eastward in response to an approaching large\r\ntrough.  Although the models are in agreement in the large-scale\r\nsteering pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in where Vance\r\nturns northward.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little\r\nto the left of the previous one for the first 72 hours to be in\r\nbetter agreement with the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 10.8N 101.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 10.4N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 10.0N 103.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z  9.9N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 10.4N 107.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 12.9N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 17.1N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 20.5N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":5,"Date":"2014-10-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014\r\n\r\nSeveral overnight microwave images and ASCAT data indicate that the\r\ncenter of Vance is located farther south and east than previously\r\nestimated.  The center is near the southern edge of the large mass\r\nof deep convection due to moderate south-southwesterly shear.  The\r\nASCAT data and Dvorak satellite intensity estimates support\r\nmaintaining an initial wind speed of 40 kt.  The shear and some dry\r\nlow- to mid-level air are expected to continue to affect the\r\ntropical cyclone during the next 12 to 24 hours, and only gradual\r\nstrengthening is expected during that time. Environmental conditions\r\nare forecast to become more conducive for strengthening over the\r\nweekend, and most of the intensity guidance shows Vance becoming a\r\nhurricane in 2 to 3 days.  By day 4, increasing southwesterly\r\nupper-level flow ahead of a large mid-latitude trough is expected to\r\ncause a significant increase in shear.  This should cause weakening\r\nlate in the period.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory and is near the model consensus.\r\n\r\nDue to the center relocation, the initial motion is a highly\r\nuncertain 245/3 kt.  Vance is expected to move west-southwestward\r\ntoday around the southeastern portion of a mid-level ridge near the\r\nsouthern Baja California peninsula.  The ridge is forecast to shift\r\neastward during the next several days while the aforementioned\r\ntrough approaches the west coast of California.  This should cause\r\nVance to turn west-northwestward, then northwestward over the\r\nweekend.  After 72 hours, Vance is forecast to turn northward, then\r\nnortheastward ahead of the trough.  The track guidance remains in\r\nagreement on this scenario but there remains some spread in the\r\ntiming of the northward turn, and the forward speed of Vance later\r\nin the period. The updated NHC forecast is similar to the previous\r\ntrack through 72 hours, but is a little faster than the previous\r\nadvisory at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 10.5N 101.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 10.1N 101.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z  9.8N 103.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 10.0N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 10.9N 106.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 14.0N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 18.5N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 22.5N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":6,"Date":"2014-10-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014\r\n\r\nThere hasn't been a lot of significant change with the structure of\r\nVance during the past several hours.  While the central convection\r\nhas weakened some, the convection associated with a banding feature\r\non the east side has increased.  Dvorak estimates are similar to 6\r\nhours ago, so the initial wind speed will remain 40 kt.  Vance\r\ncontinues to struggle with southwesterly shear and dry air.  Most\r\nof the models, however, suggest that the shear should abate over the\r\nweekend, with increasing moisture and upper-level divergence\r\nexpected as well.  The latest model guidance generally shows a\r\nhigher peak intensity, and the NHC forecast is now a bit higher at\r\n48-72 hours.  After that time, a significant increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear is forecast, which will likely cause weakening\r\nwhile the cyclone approaches Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe center has not been easy to track with this cyclone, but the\r\nlatest microwave and visible satellite data suggest it has been\r\ncreeping toward the south-southwest.  A ridge over the eastern\r\nPacific is expected to move eastward over the next few days,\r\nsteering the cyclone more steadily west-southwestward by late today,\r\nwestward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this weekend. Vance\r\nis then forecast to turn northward and then northeastward ahead of a\r\ntrough moving over Baja California.  While the models are in good\r\nagreement on the overall track, there remains some spread in the\r\ntiming of the turn toward Mexico.  The guidance is generally faster\r\nthan the last cycle, so the updated NHC forecast follows that trend.\r\nOverall the forecast is also little east of the previous one, mostly\r\nbecause of the initial motion and position.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 10.1N 100.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z  9.7N 101.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z  9.6N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 10.2N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 11.4N 107.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 15.0N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 19.3N 107.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 23.5N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":7,"Date":"2014-10-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014\r\n\r\nVance has a peculiar structure this afternoon.  The central\r\nconvection has become somewhat skeletal with the center exposed at\r\ntimes, although there are still plenty of curved banding features in\r\nthe outer portion of the circulation. The culprit for this decrease\r\nin convection appears to be an influx of dry air moving into the\r\ncentral region of the tropical cyclone around the west and south\r\nsides.  Dvorak estimates still support an intensity of about 40 kt.\r\n\r\nSince the dry air is close to the center now, it will probably take\r\nsome time for this air to mix out.  Thus little change is shown in\r\nthe short term.  Afterward, models insist that the large-scale\r\nenvironment will become favorable for strengthening over the next\r\nthree days or so.  Strong southwesterly shear is anticipated for the\r\nbeginning of next week, which will probably cause Vance to weaken\r\nsignificantly at long range.  There has not been much change to the\r\nguidance suite, with the majority of the guidance still showing\r\nVance as a hurricane in a few days.  The NHC forecast is therefore\r\nvery close to the previous one, and generally lies between the\r\nintensity consensus and the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nIt seems that finally the motion of Vance has become more clear, now\r\nmoving west-southwestward at about 6 kt.  This general motion is\r\nexpected through tonight due to a ridge over the eastern Pacific.\r\nThis ridge should move eastward over the next few days, steering the\r\ncyclone more westward tomorrow, and to the northwest by late this\r\nweekend. Vance is then forecast to turn northward and then north-\r\nnortheastward ahead of a trough moving over Baja California. Subtle\r\ndifferences in the speed of the trough are leading to increased\r\nmodel spread at long range, with the faster ECMWF preferring a more\r\nnorth-northeast track, compared to the slower GFS solution of a\r\nsharper northeastward turn.  The NHC forecast is adjusted westward\r\nat day 3 and beyond, and is close to a dynamical model consensus\r\nexcluding the UKMET model, which has an improbable forecast due to a\r\nseemingly spurious interaction with a weak ITCZ disturbance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z  9.5N 101.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z  9.3N 102.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z  9.6N 104.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 10.5N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 11.7N 108.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 19.8N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 23.5N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":8,"Date":"2014-11-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 31 2014\r\n\r\nMost of the available intensity analyses indicate that Vance has\r\nweakened since the previous advisory and is barely holding on to\r\ntropical cyclone status at that. The initial intensity of 35 kt is\r\nbased on a blend of satellite intensity estimates of 35 kt, 30 kt,\r\nand 33 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, respectively.\r\n\r\nVisible and microwave fix positions over the past few hours suggest\r\nthat Vance has been moving slowly westward or just south of due\r\nwest, so the initial motion estimate is now 270/05 kt. Otherwise,\r\nthere is no significant change to the previous forecast track or\r\nreasoning. A general westward motion should continue through\r\nSaturday, followed by a turn to the west-northwest and northwest on\r\nSunday as Vance moves around the southwestern periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer ridge located to the north of the cyclone. As a\r\nmid-tropospheric trough approaches Baja California on Monday, Vance\r\nis forecast to move northward, followed by a turn and acceleration\r\ntoward the northeast on Tuesday. The latest model guidance is in\r\nbetter agreement for this forecast cycle and is more tightly packed\r\nas well. Therefore, the new NHC forecast track is basically just an\r\nupdate of the previous advisory track, and closely follows the TVCE\r\nconsensus track model.\r\n\r\nAlthough the convective cloud pattern of Vance has eroded\r\nsignificantly during the past several hours, a small burst of deep\r\nconvection has recently developed over the center. Overall, however,\r\nthe cyclone has maintained a well-developed low-level wind field.\r\nDry mid-level air that has been plaguing Vance from the outset is\r\nexpected to give way to a more moist environment in the 12-48 hour\r\ntime period while the vertical wind shear remains rather low at less\r\nthan 5 kt. The result is that Vance is forecast to gradually\r\nstrengthen and become a hurricane by late Sunday. By 72 hours and\r\nbeyond, southwesterly vertical shear is expected to sharply increase\r\nahead of the aforementioned trough, causing the cyclone to rapidly\r\nweaken. However, it is worth noting that Vance could reach a higher\r\npeak intensity between the 48- and 72-hour periods before the\r\nweakening trend begins. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory forecast, and is a blend of the SHIPS and HWRF\r\nintensity models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z  9.5N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z  9.5N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 10.0N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 12.6N 109.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 16.5N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.1N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 24.3N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":9,"Date":"2014-11-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n200 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014\r\n\r\nVance's structure has been improving since the last advisory.  A\r\ncluster of deep convection has developed near the center, and more\r\ndefined curved bands are forming on the outer edges of the\r\ncirculation.  The maximum winds are held at 35 kt based on a\r\nconsensus of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nThe first three days of the forecast are fairly straightforward.\r\nVance is expected to turn west-northwestward later today,\r\naccelerate northwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of\r\n110W by day 2, and curve toward the north on day 3.  The track\r\nguidance remains tightly clustered but has shifted westward after\r\n36 hours.  Therefore, the updated NHC track forecast is a little\r\nleft of the previous one from 36 to 72 hours.  While Vance turns\r\nnorthward, light vertical shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and\r\na moistening mid-level troposphere should allow the storm to reach\r\nhurricane strength in 2-3 days.  This part of the forecast closely\r\nfollows the SHIPS, HWRF, and Florida State Superensemble guidance.\r\n\r\nThe forecast is a little more complex after day 3.  Once Vance\r\nbegins to recurve, it will encounter southwesterly shear that\r\nincreases from 20-25 kt on day 3 to well over 40 kt on days 4 and\r\n5.  This environment is likely to cause the cyclone to decouple,\r\nwith the mid-level circulation being sheared off toward Mexico and\r\nthe low-level circulation being left behind south of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  While the operational GFS brings Vance to\r\nthe coast of Mexico in 96 hours, the parallel run of GFS and the\r\nECMWF model have much slower and weaker solutions and do not bring\r\nthe surface center to the Mexican coast.  As additional support for\r\nthis scenario, most of the GFS and European ensemble members show\r\nVance lingering or even dissipating offshore.  At this time, the\r\noperational GFS is considered an outlier solution, and the NHC\r\ntrack forecast is closer to a blend of the European and parallel\r\nGFS models.  Due to the shear, Vance is expected to weaken rapidly\r\nafter day 3, possibly becoming a remnant low near or offshore the\r\ncoast of Mexico by day 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z  9.4N 102.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z  9.7N 104.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 10.5N 106.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 11.6N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 13.2N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 17.1N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 20.5N 109.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":10,"Date":"2014-11-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n800 AM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014\r\n\r\nThe structure of Vance continues to improve, albeit slowly.  The\r\nfirst-light visible images show that the center is in the northern\r\nportion of the central dense overcast, with recent microwave data\r\nsuggesting the development of a more solid inner core.  A blend of\r\nthe latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support raising\r\nthe initial wind speed to 40 kt.  Vance has ample opportunity to\r\nstrengthen for about the next 2 days while it remains over very warm\r\nwaters with low shear conditions.  Little change is made to the\r\nforecast intensity during that time, which is just a bit higher than\r\nthe model consensus.  Thereafter, shear is forecast to increase\r\nmarkedly, with rather hostile conditions expected while the cyclone\r\napproaches Mexico.  Guidance has trended sharply downward at days\r\n3-5, and the latest NHC forecast is adjusted in that direction.\r\n\r\nVance is moving about 280/6 kt.  The cyclone is expected to move\r\nmuch faster toward the west-northwest later today, and then move\r\nnorthwestward toward a deepening mid-level trough west of 110W by\r\nday 2. Similar to the last advisory, the track guidance remains\r\ntightly clustered but has shifted westward during the first 2 days.\r\nThus, the updated NHC track forecast is a little left of the\r\nprevious one through 48 hours. After that time, the mid-level trough\r\nis expected to steer Vance to the north and north-northeast on days\r\n3 and 4. Guidance is coming into better agreement on this solution,\r\nwith the 06z GFS having trended left of its 00z solution, and no\r\nchanges were made to the official NHC forecast.  While the latest\r\nNHC prediction still shows Vance moving onshore of the coast of\r\nMexico around day 5, it is a distinct possibility that the\r\nlow-level center will remain offshore due to the cyclone decoupling\r\nfrom the mid-level flow.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z  9.6N 103.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 10.2N 104.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 11.1N 107.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 12.5N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 14.3N 110.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 18.1N 109.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 23.5N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":11,"Date":"2014-11-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n200 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014\r\n\r\nVance appears to be gradually organizing in satellite imagery. The\r\ncentral convection has increased a bit over the past few hours, and\r\nconvective banding has also increased in coverage. However,\r\nsatellite intensity estimates remain unchanged, and the initial\r\nintensity remains 40 kt. The increase in convective coverage is\r\nconsistent with a gradual moistening of the near-storm environment\r\nas seen in the SHIPS model analyses, and conditions appear conducive\r\nfor gradual strengthening during the next 48 hours. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and shows Vance\r\nreaching hurricane status in about 2 days. After that time, the\r\nshear increases dramatically, which should result in quick weakening\r\nto remnant low status by day 4. The NHC prediction is close to the\r\nDecay-SHIPS model and a little above the intensity consensus through\r\nthe period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Vance is feeling the\r\neffects of a strengthening mid-level ridge to the north. Vance\r\nshould move generally west-northwestward through 24 hours and then\r\nturn northward by 48 hours as it moves between the ridge and an\r\namplifying mid/upper-level trough digging southward over the\r\nsouthwestern United States and Baja California. Late in the period,\r\na weakening Vance is expected to turn north-northeastward as the\r\ncyclone decouples in the strong shear, leaving a remnant low\r\ndrifting erratically by the end of the forecast period. The guidance\r\nhas trended faster in the short term this cycle, and generally shows\r\na broader recurvature through 48 hours. The NHC forecast has been\r\ntrended in that direction, but lies a little east of the multi-model\r\nconsensus at 36 and 48 hours. After that time, the spread in the\r\nguidance increases. The ECMWF and UKMET models both show Vance\r\ninteracting to some degree with a disturbance moving northward\r\naround the eastern side of the tropical cyclone. In particular, the\r\nECMWF shows Vance weakening and then merging with the other system,\r\nresulting in a track far to the south of the rest of the models. The\r\nGFS remains farther north and east, but shows a westward turn by day\r\n5. The NHC forecast late in the period has been slowed down and\r\nshows the remnant low meandering between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo\r\nCorrientes at days 4 and 5. However, this forecast is east of the\r\nmulti-model consensus out of respect for continuity, and confidence\r\nin the details of the track forecast late in the period is quite\r\nlow.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 10.1N 104.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 10.8N 106.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 12.0N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 13.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 15.2N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 18.7N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 21.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 22.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":12,"Date":"2014-11-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n800 PM PDT SAT NOV 01 2014\r\n\r\nVance's convective organization has improved considerably since the\r\nprevious advisory with a central dense overcast feature having\r\ndeveloped during the past few hours. In addition, recent SSMI/S and\r\nWindSat microwave satellite imagery indicate that a small precursor\r\neye feature with a diameter 10-12 nmi has developed. The initial\r\nintensity has been increased to 45 kt based on consensus satellite\r\nintensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 290/11 kt. For the next 24 hours\r\nor so, Vance is expected to move west-northwestward along the\r\nsouthern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located to its north. After\r\nthat, a turn to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves around\r\nthe ridge and ahead of an approaching mid-tropospheric trough that\r\nwill be moving across Baja California in the 48-72 hour time frame.\r\nBy late in the forecast period, Vance is expected to weaken\r\nrapidly, with the low- and upper-level circulations decoupling. The\r\nremnant low is forecast to meander off of the southwestern coast\r\nof Mexico and the southern tip of Baja California. The NHC forecast\r\ntrack is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe mid-level moisture has apparently increased based on the recent\r\ndevelopment of significant inner-core convection. With such low\r\nvertical shear conditions and the aforementioned eye-like feature,\r\nrapid intensification is a very distinct possibility during the\r\nnext 24-36 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast has been\r\nincreased above the previous advisory forecast through 48 hours,\r\nwhich is above the intensity consensus model ICON and is about\r\nmidway between the GFDL and HWRF intensity forecasts. After that,\r\nthe intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory due\r\nto expected strong southwesterly vertical shear conditions of at\r\nleast 35-40 kt, which should result in rapid weakening of Vance and\r\ndegeneration into a remnant low on Days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 10.2N 105.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 11.2N 107.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 12.6N 109.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 14.3N 110.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 16.0N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 18.8N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 21.0N 108.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z 22.0N 108.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":13,"Date":"2014-11-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014\r\n\r\nAfter struggling to organize during the past couple of days, Vance\r\nis finally in the midst of a definitive strengthening trend, and\r\nclose to becoming a hurricane.  The low-level center is embedded\r\nbeneath very cold cloud tops, and the convective canopy has been\r\nexpanding due to good upper-level outflow to the north and west of\r\nthe cyclone.  The initial intensity is estimated to be 60 kt based\r\non a blend of Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, T4.0/65 kt\r\nfrom SAB, and T3.7/59 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nVance is likely going through a period of rapid intensification.\r\nAtmospheric and oceanic conditions are favorable for additional\r\nquick strengthening, and there is a 2 out of 3 chance of a 30-kt\r\nincrease in Vance's maximum winds during the next 24 hours based on\r\nthe SHIPS Rapid Intensification guidance.  The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast has been raised from the previous forecast during the first\r\n48 hours, and it is slightly higher than the most aggressive\r\nintensity models in light of the SHIPS RI numbers.  After 48 hours,\r\nVance is likely to weaken rapidly due to 30-40 kt of southwesterly\r\nshear and a drier mid-level environment.  The NHC forecast is\r\nessentially unchanged from the previous one on days 3-5 and closely\r\nfollows the SHIPS guidance and the trends noted in the GFS and ECMWF\r\nglobal models.\r\n\r\nVance is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, or\r\n295/12 kt.  The cyclone is moving along the southwestern periphery\r\nof a mid-level ridge centered over southern Mexico, and toward a\r\ndeep-layer trough located between 110W and 130W.  Vance is expected\r\nto turn northwestward and northward between these two features\r\nduring the next 2 days.  Thereafter, the strong shear is forecast\r\nto leave Vance's low-level circulation in a weaker steering\r\nenvironment south of the Baja California peninsula.  The track\r\nguidance has shifted westward, especially after 48 hours, and the\r\nNHC track forecast lies on the eastern edge of the envelope near the\r\nGFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 10.9N 106.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 12.0N 108.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 13.7N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 15.5N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 17.1N 110.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 18.9N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 20.5N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z 22.0N 111.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":14,"Date":"2014-11-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n700 AM PST SUN NOV 02 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images show that Vance has continued to strengthen this\r\nmorning.  The cyclone has a cold cloud-topped CDO, with some\r\novershooting tops near the center, surrounded by banding features.\r\nObjective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS now support an intensity of 70\r\nkt, which makes the system a hurricane.  Vance has fairly strong\r\nupper-level outflow over all but the eastern portion of the\r\ncirculation.  Additional strengthening is likely during the next 24\r\nhours, and the official intensity forecast is near the high end of\r\nthe numerical guidance in the short term.  By 36 hours, the\r\ndynamical guidance shows a large increase in southwesterly shear due\r\nto strong upper-level winds north of 15N latitude, and this should\r\nhalt any additional strengthening.  Vance is expected to weaken\r\nrapidly on days 2 and 3 of the forecast period, and is likely to\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low pressure system by day 4.  This is\r\nsimilar to the previous official wind speed forecast.\r\n\r\nLatest center fixes indicate that the hurricane is now moving\r\nnorthwestward, or 310/13 kt.  Vance is expected to round the\r\nwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge and turn northward to\r\nnorth-northeastward toward a trough over the southwestern United\r\nStates during the next couple of days.  By late in the forecast\r\nperiod, the cyclone is likely to become a shallow system that will\r\nturn to the left within the weaker low-level flow.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 11.9N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 13.1N 108.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 14.8N 110.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 17.8N 110.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 20.0N 109.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z 22.5N 111.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":15,"Date":"2014-11-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014\r\n\r\nVance continues to gain strength.  An eye has recently become\r\napparent in visible satellite images and the fairly compact inner\r\ncore of the hurricane is getting better organized.  In addition,\r\nbanding features are well established on the north and east sides\r\nof the circulation.  The initial wind speed is raised to 75 kt,\r\nfollowing the Dvorak intensity estimates of 4.5/77 kt from TAFB and\r\nSAB.  Vance is currently in favorable environmental conditions with\r\nsea surface temperatures near 29 C, wind shear less than 10 kt, and\r\nhigh amounts of moisture.  Since the hurricane is expected to remain\r\nin this environment for about another 12 to 24 hours, continued\r\nstrengthening is predicted in the short term, and the NHC forecast\r\nlies at the high end of the guidance during that time.  Beyond 24\r\nhours, however, a substantial increase in southwesterly shear and a\r\ndecrease in environmental moisture should cause a steady weakening\r\ntrend, and Vance will likely degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving northwestward at about 14 kt steered by a\r\nmid-level ridge situated to its northeast over the Gulf of Mexico.\r\nA turn to the north with a reduction in forward speed is expected\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours, followed by a northeastward motion\r\nas a large trough moves eastward toward the cyclone.  There has been\r\nan eastward shift in the guidance beyond 48 hours in this cycle, and\r\nthe NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii were modified based on a pair of ASCAT passes\r\nat around 1700 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 12.8N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 14.1N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 17.7N 110.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 19.3N 109.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 21.5N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":16,"Date":"2014-11-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n700 PM PST SUN NOV 02 2014\r\n\r\nVance has displayed a pinhole eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops\r\nboth in microwave imagery and sporadically in visible/infrared\r\nimagery.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB along with a\r\n2124Z AMSU objective analysis from CIMSS indicates an intensity of\r\n90 kt.  The combination of very low vertical shear, quite moist and\r\nunstable thermodynamics, warm SSTs, and large upper-level divergence\r\nhave contributed toward Vance's rapid intensification during the\r\nlast 24 hours, during which time the maximum winds have doubled.\r\nVince has about 12 hours of conducive conditions remaining before a\r\nhigh amplitude upper- to mid-level trough currently west of Baja\r\nCalifornia begins to adversely affect the tropical cyclone. Vertical\r\nshear should quickly ramp up while the moisture, convective\r\ninstability, and upper-level divergence drop during the next two\r\ndays.  Vance is predicted to peak in intensity shortly followed by\r\nrapid weakening, most similar to the LGEM and SHIPS statistical\r\nmodels during the next 24 hours and to the IVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus thereafter.  This forecast is higher than that in the\r\nprevious advisory due to the stronger initial intensity, but lower\r\nat days 2 and 3.\r\n\r\nVance is moving 310 degrees at 15 kt, as it is being advected around\r\nthe periphery of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast.  As the\r\naforementioned trough digs southward, Vance should undergo\r\nrecurvature beginning in about a day, at the very low latitude of\r\nabout 18 North.  The tropical cyclone should then turn toward the\r\nnorth-northeast on Tuesday and start approaching southwestern\r\nMexico.  However, the shear should become so severe that the\r\ntropical cyclone is likely to decouple in about three days with the\r\nremnant low not quite reaching the coast. The NHC official track\r\nprediction is based upon the TVCE multi-model consensus, and is\r\nfaster than the previous advisory but not as far northeast as the\r\nGFS-ECMWF combination.  An alternative scenario is that Vance\r\nreaches the southwestern Mexican coast as a tropical storm in about\r\nthree days, as seen in the deterministic ECMWF model run.  However,\r\ngiven the quite hostile vertical shear conditions expected, and that\r\nthe ECMWF solution appears to be an outlier compared to its ensemble\r\nmembers, this is not considered to be likely at this time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 13.7N 109.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 15.2N 110.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 17.1N 110.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 18.7N 110.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 20.4N 108.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 23.5N 107.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":17,"Date":"2014-11-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Vance is maintaining its intensity,\r\nwith very cold-topped inner core convection.  Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB remain at 90 kt, and the initial\r\nintensity is held at that value as well.  Vance's upper-level\r\noutflow is becoming slightly impeded over its southwest quadrant,\r\nsuggesting that southwesterly shear over the hurricane is already\r\nbeginning to increase.  The window of opportunity for additional\r\nstrengthening is quickly closing, since the SHIPS model indicates\r\nthe vertical shear increasing to 24 kt in 12 hours and to 30 kt in\r\n24 hours.  The NHC forecast shows only a slight increase in\r\nstrength today, with a weakening trend beginning in 12-24 hours,\r\nand is near or slightly above the intensity model consensus.\r\nAlthough the track forecast brings the cyclone near the coast by\r\n72 hours, the upper-level environment is expected to be extremely\r\nhostile and the system should be reduced to remnant low or even\r\ncompletely dissipate by that time.\r\n\r\nThere has been a little deceleration and the motion is now 320/12\r\nkt.  Over the next day or two, Vance should recurve around the\r\nwestern periphery of a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The cyclone is\r\nthen likely to move north-northeastward between the ridge and a\r\ntrough over extreme northwestern Mexico.  By the end of the\r\nforecast period, the motion could become erratic since the\r\ncirculation will probably become quite shallow and be steered by\r\nthe weaker low-level flow.  The official track forecast is very\r\nsimilar to the previous one and is close to the dynamical model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nSome additional adjustments to the wind radii were done based on\r\nASCAT data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 14.5N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 16.0N 110.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 17.9N 110.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 19.6N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 21.4N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 23.2N 107.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":18,"Date":"2014-11-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n700 AM PST MON NOV 03 2014\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images show that the inner core of Vance remains\r\nvertically aligned, however, the outflow is becoming increasingly\r\nrestricted over the southwestern portion of the circulation due to\r\nsouthwesterly shear.  Vance has likely peaked in intensity and the\r\ninitial wind speed is held at 90 kt for this advisory, which is in\r\nagreement with the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from both TAFB and SAB.\r\nThe vertical shear over Vance is forecast to dramatically increase\r\nduring the next 24 to 48 hours.  In fact, the SHIPS model predicts\r\nshear to increase to 37 kt in 24 hours, and to 54 kt in 48 hours.\r\nThese very hostile conditions should cause the hurricane to rapidly\r\nweaken during the next couple of days, and Vance is forecast to\r\nbecome a tropical depression in 48 hours. Although a 72-hour\r\nforecast as a remnant low is indicated, it is highly possible that\r\nthis system will have dissipated by that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is north-northwest or 345/10 kt.  Vance\r\nhas started its much anticipated northward turn ahead of an\r\napproaching mid-latitude trough.  Vance should turn northward this\r\nafternoon, and then recurve north-northeastward ahead of the trough\r\ntomorrow.  There continues to be some run-to-run inconsistencies in\r\nthe model guidance as to how vertically coherent Vance will remain\r\nand how fast it will move north-northeastward.  The GFS and ECMWF\r\nnow bring a weakening cyclone to the coast, meanwhile the HWRF and\r\nUKMET show a much slower, and more erratic motion in a couple of\r\ndays.  The updated NHC track has trended faster than the previous\r\nadvisory and is close to the multi-model consensus, however, the new\r\nforecast is slower than the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nMoisture from Vance and its remnants are likely to spread\r\nnortheastward across Mexico and into the south-central United\r\nStates during the next several days.  This is likely to produce\r\nheavy rains over portions of these areas through Thursday\r\nor Friday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 15.3N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 16.7N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 18.6N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 20.6N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 22.5N 107.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":19,"Date":"2014-11-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nEarlier today it appeared that Vance was beginning to weaken.\r\nHowever, that trend has ended and recent satellite images suggest\r\nthat the hurricane is a little better organized.  The eye is again\r\nevident in satellite images and the inner core of the cyclone is\r\nwell intact.  The initial intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt,\r\nusing a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is now moving northward at about 10 kt located on\r\nthe western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of\r\nMexico.  Water vapor images show a high amplitude trough digging to\r\nthe west of Vance.  This feature is expected to steer the system\r\nnorth-northeastward during the next couple of days, bringing a much\r\nweaker cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nEven though Vance has strengthened some this afternoon, steady or\r\neven rapid weakening is still anticipated due to a pronounced\r\nincrease in southwesterly shear and drier air.  In fact, the SHIPS\r\nmodel shows extremely hostile shear conditions with values near 30\r\nkt tonight and more than 40 kt tomorrow.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis the same as the previous one and lies very close to the model\r\nconsensus.  The current forecast calls for Vance to become a\r\ntropical depression offshore. However, if Vance does not begin to\r\nweaken soon, then the chances of tropical storm conditions reaching\r\nthe coast will increase.\r\n\r\nMoisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward\r\nacross Mexico and into the south-central United States during the\r\nnext several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over\r\nportions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 16.4N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 17.8N 110.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 19.6N 109.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 21.4N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 23.4N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 25.0N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":20,"Date":"2014-11-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n700 PM PST MON NOV 03 2014\r\n\r\nCorrected text to read tropical storm watch issued\r\n\r\nVance has maintained a well-defined central dense overcast pattern\r\nsince the previous advisory, although the eye has become less\r\ndistinct in infrared and recent SSMI/S microwave imagery. However,\r\ncloud tops colder than -80C now completely encircle the remnant eye\r\nfeature in infrared imagery. An average of Dvorak current intensity\r\nestimates yields a value of 96 kt, so the initial intensity is\r\nbeing maintained at 95 kt.\r\n\r\nVance has started to recurve to the north-northeast and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is now 020/11 kt. The hurricane is expected to move\r\nin a general north-northeastward to northeastward direction within\r\nsouth-southwesterly steering flow between the subtropical ridge to\r\nthe east and an approaching deep-layer trough to the west. As a\r\nresult, Vance is expected to pass just east of Socorro Island\r\ntonight and be near the southwestern coast of Mexico in 48 hours or\r\nso. The NHC model guidance is in decent agreement on this scenario,\r\nand the official forecast track is just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory track and lies close to the blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodel solutions.\r\n\r\nThe latest SHIPS guidance indicates south-southwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear of at least 30 affecting Vance. Although this estimate\r\ncould be a little overdone given the impressive infrared satellite\r\nsignature, a 0134 UTC SSMI/S microwave overpass suggests that the\r\ncirculation is starting to tilt downstream to the northeast due to\r\nthe shear. The vertical shear is forecast by all of the global\r\nmodels to steadily increase throughout the forecast period, which\r\nshould result in steady or rapid weakening until landfall occurs in\r\nabout 48 hours. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels, which is just slightly above the consensus model ICON. The\r\nforecast still calls for Vance to become a tropical depression just\r\noffshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. However, due to the\r\nuncertainty in the exact timing of the expected weakening trend, the\r\nGovernment of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for portions\r\nof southwestern mainland Mexico.\r\n\r\nMoisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward\r\nacross Mexico and into the south-central United States during the\r\nnext several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over\r\nportions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 17.4N 110.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 18.8N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.5N 109.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 22.7N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 24.6N 107.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 25.5N 108.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":21,"Date":"2014-11-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the anticipated weakening of Vance\r\nhas begun.  The cloud pattern has become decidedly less circular and\r\nmore ragged over the past several hours, and the overall coverage of\r\ndeep convection is gradually decreasing.  The current intensity is\r\nset at 90 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although\r\nthis may be generous given the most recent satellite presentation.\r\nMore than 30 kt of south-southwesterly vertical shear is currently\r\naffecting the hurricane, and this shear is forecast to increase to\r\nabout 45-55 kt in 24 to 36 hours.   Vertical cross sections from the\r\nlatest GFS model forecast show that most of the tropical cyclone's\r\ncirculation above 500 mb is removed within the next 24 hours,\r\npresumably due to the intense shear.  These very hostile dynamical\r\nconditions should result in a rather rapid rate of weakening before\r\nthe tropical cyclone nears the Mexican coast.  The official\r\nintensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS prediction.\r\nAlthough Vance could weaken to a depression by the time it reaches\r\nthe coast, given the uncertainties in intensity prediction, it is\r\nprudent to have a tropical storm watch at this time.\r\n\r\nIt is estimated that the low-level center is near the southwestern\r\nedge of the main convective mass, and the initial motion estimate\r\nof 025/11 kt is not much different from the previous package.\r\nVance is expected to continue moving north-northeastward to the\r\nsouth and southeast of a mid-level trough over the next day or two.\r\nThe official track forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\npredictions, and lies a little to the east of the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward\r\nacross Mexico and into the south-central United States during the\r\nnext several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over\r\nportions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 18.4N 110.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 19.8N 109.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 22.0N 108.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 24.1N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 26.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Vance","Adv":22,"Date":"2014-11-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n700 AM PST TUE NOV 04 2014\r\n\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite data indicate that Vance is\r\nlosing organization due to the effects of 35-40 kt of vertical wind\r\nshear.  The cloud pattern has become elongated, and the low-level\r\ncenter is near the southern edge of the convection.  The initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 75 kt based on various satellite intensity\r\nestimates, and this could be a bit generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 025/11.  The GFS, ECMWF, GFDL, and Florida\r\nState Superensemble models forecast Vance to move generally\r\nnortheastward and make landfall on the coast of Mexico in 24-36\r\nhours.  The official forecast does likewise, and the new forecast is\r\nsimilar to that of the previous advisory.  It cannot be ruled out\r\nthat Vance will completely shear apart before landfall, with the\r\nlow-level center moving slower toward the northeast than currently\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale models forecast even stronger shear over Vance\r\nduring the next 24-36 hours, and this should cause rapid weakening.\r\nThe new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is in best\r\nagreement with the SHIPS model.  Although Vance could weaken to a\r\ndepression by the time it makes landfall, given the uncertainties in\r\nintensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm\r\nwatch for portions of the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nMoisture from Vance and its remnants should spread northeastward\r\nacross Mexico and into the south-central United States during the\r\nnext several days.  This is likely to produce heavy rains over\r\nportions of these areas through Thursday or Friday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 19.3N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 21.0N 108.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 23.2N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 25.3N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":23,"Date":"2014-11-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014\r\n\r\nThe organization of Vance has decreased significantly over the past\r\nseveral hours due to the effects of 50-60 kt of vertical wind\r\nshear. The low-level center is now exposed to the southwest of\r\nthe main convective mass, and the convection has decreased in both\r\ncoverage and intensity.  The initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt,\r\nand this again could be a little generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 030/12.  The guidance has trended eastward and\r\nfaster since the last advisory, and the dynamical models now\r\nforecast the cyclone to make landfall over mainland Mexico in 18-24\r\nhours.  The new forecast track lies a little to the east of the\r\nprevious track, but is west of, and slower than, the consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nContinuing strong shear should cause additional rapid weakening.\r\nThe majority of the guidance forecasts Vance to weaken below\r\ntropical-storm strength before landfall, and the new intensity\r\nforecast follows that scenario.  However, given the uncertainties in\r\nintensity prediction it remains prudent to have a tropical storm\r\nwatch for portions of the coast of Mexico.  After landfall, Vance\r\nis expected to dissipate over the mountains of northwestern Mexico.\r\n\r\nMoisture from Vance and its remnants is spreading northeastward\r\nacross Mexico and into the south-central United States.  This is\r\nproducing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should\r\ncontinue through Thursday or Friday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 20.4N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 22.1N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 24.4N 106.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 26.5N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Vance","Adv":24,"Date":"2014-11-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n700 PM PST TUE NOV 04 2014\r\n\r\nThe convective organization of Vance has continued to erode\r\nsignificantly since the previous advisory due to strong\r\nsouth-southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 45 kt and\r\nentrainment of drier air. As a result, the initial intensity has\r\nbeen decreased to 45 kt based on a blend of various satellite\r\nintensity estimates. Additional rapid weakening is expected until\r\nlandfall occurs in about 18 hours or so, and Vance could be a\r\ntropical depression at that time. After landfall, Vance is expected\r\nto quickly dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northwestern\r\nMexico.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 025/12 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Vance is\r\nexpected to remain embedded within south-southwesterly flow on the\r\neast side of deep-layer trough for the next 24 hours, which should\r\nresult in a north-northeastward motion until landfall occurs.\r\n\r\nMoisture from Vance is spreading northeastward across Mexico and\r\ninto the south-central United States.  This is producing heavy rains\r\nover portions of these areas which should continue through Thursday\r\nor Friday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 21.5N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 23.1N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 25.3N 106.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Vance","Adv":25,"Date":"2014-11-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014\r\n\r\nThe end is near for Vance, as the vertical shear over the area is\r\nnow over 50 kt.  With the rapid spindown of the circulation, the\r\nmaximum winds are now estimated to be about 30 kt, making the\r\ncyclone a tropical depression.  Accordingly, the government of\r\nMexico has discontinued the tropical storm watch for their country.\r\nVance has been devoid of deep convection anywhere near its center\r\nfor about 6 hours, and it will likely become a remnant low after\r\nmoving inland later today.  Complete dissipation of the\r\nsurface circulation is expected within 24 hours or less.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and shortwave infrared imagery indicate that the\r\ncyclone center is located a little to the southeast of the\r\npreviously estimated track.  After some retrospective adjustments to\r\nthe working best track, the initial motion is estimated to be about\r\n050/11 kt.  This northeastward movement should continue until\r\ndissipation.\r\n\r\nAlthough the tropical cyclone will dissipate soon, moisture from\r\nVance or its remnants should continue to spread northeastward\r\nacross Mexico and into the south-central United States.  This is\r\nproducing heavy rains over portions of these areas which should\r\ncontinue through Thursday or Friday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 21.9N 106.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 23.0N 105.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Vance","Adv":26,"Date":"2014-11-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n700 AM PST WED NOV 05 2014\r\n\r\nVance is currently making landfall along the coast of Mexico to the\r\nsoutheast of Mazatlan as a tropical depression with maximum winds\r\nestimated to be 25 kt.  The cyclone barely meets the qualifications\r\nfor a tropical cyclone since the low-level center is becoming\r\nelongated.  Vance is producing a small area of deep convection to\r\nthe north of the center over western Mexico, and the larger swath of\r\nmoisture seen in satellite images to its southeast is not directly\r\nassociated with this system.\r\n\r\nThe weakening cyclone continues to turn to the right, and the\r\nlatest initial motion estimate is 055/11.  Although a 12-hour\r\nforecast position is shown, it would not be surprising if Vance\r\ndissipates over western Mexico before then.\r\n\r\nEven though the tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate soon,\r\nmoisture from the remnants of Vance and the area to its southeast\r\nshould continue to spread northeastward across Mexico and into the\r\nsouth-central United States.  This is producing heavy rains over\r\nportions of these areas, which should continue for another day or\r\ntwo.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 22.7N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 23.0N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Vance","Adv":27,"Date":"2014-11-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP212014","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF VANCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014\r\n100 PM PST WED NOV 05 2014\r\n\r\nVance made landfall along the coast of Mexico just southeast of\r\nMazatlan earlier today around 1400 UTC as a tropical depression.\r\nSince then, the low-level center of Vance has dissipated while it\r\nmoved farther inland and interacted with the rugged terrain.\r\nTherefore, this is the last advisory issued on Vance by the National\r\nHurricane Center.\r\n\r\nEven though the tropical cyclone has dissipated, moisture from the\r\nremnants of Vance and the area to its south should continue to\r\nspread northeastward across Mexico and into the south-central United\r\nStates.  This is producing heavy rains over portions of these areas,\r\nwhich should continue for another day or so.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 23.3N 105.2W   20 KT  25 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-05-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n1100 PM EDT THU MAY 07 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows some increase in deep convection this\r\nevening, and the low pressure system off the southeast U.S. coast\r\nis now being designated as a subtropical storm.  Based on adjusted\r\nSFMR winds from a hurricane hunter aircraft that has been\r\ninvestigating the system, the current intensity is set at 40\r\nkt.  Data from the aircraft also show that the radius of maximum\r\nwinds has decreased somewhat from earlier today, but at 80 n mi it\r\nis still too large to justify classifying Ana as a tropical cyclone\r\nat this time.  Since there has been more deep convection occurring\r\nnear the center over the past several hours, it is becoming more\r\nlikely that Ana will make the transition into a tropical storm\r\nwithin the next day or so.  The storm should remain situated near or\r\nover the Gulf Stream for the next 24-36 hours, which would allow for\r\nsome slight strengthening.  Later in the period, as the cyclone\r\napproaches the coast, weakening is expected due to the influence of\r\ncooler shelf waters.\r\n\r\nThe system has not moved much over the past 24 hours and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 350/2.  Ana is likely to remain located\r\nto the south of a stubborn mid-tropospheric blocking pattern for the\r\nnext 48 hours or so.  Global models show the block breaking down\r\nover the weekend, which should allow Ana to move inland over the\r\nsoutheastern U.S. Near the end of the forecast period, the system\r\nshould accelerate northeastward in the flow ahead of a broad trough.\r\nThe official track forecast is close to the dynamical model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nWe appreciate the assistance of the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for\r\nproviding valuable observations, given their limited resources\r\nprior to the start of the regular Atlantic Hurricane Season.\r\n\r\nNote that the name Ana is pronounced AH-nah.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 31.5N  77.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 31.6N  77.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 31.7N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 31.9N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 32.3N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 33.4N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 36.1N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  13/0000Z 41.0N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-05-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n500 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015\r\n\r\nSubtropical Storm Ana has remained convectively challenged\r\novernight with only a small cluster of thunderstorms noted revolving\r\nthrough the southern semicircle, and only shallow isolated\r\nconvection having recently developed in the inner-core region. The\r\ninitial intensity remains at 40 kt based on previous recon data and\r\nthe lack of any significant change in the overall convective\r\npattern since that flight.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion continues to be a slow drift to the northwest\r\nor north-northwest at only 1-2 kt. Ana is embedded in a blocking\r\npattern that is expected to persist for the next 3 days or so until\r\na strong mid-tropospheric low/trough currently located over the\r\nwestern U.S. moves into the central and southern Plains and nudges\r\nAna northward and eventually northeastward by early next week.\r\nDuring the next 48 hours, Ana is expected to move toward the\r\nsoutheastern U.S. at a very slow pace. The global and regional\r\nmodels are in remarkably good agreement on this weak steering\r\npattern persisting through the weekend so, the official forecast\r\ntrack is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track\r\nand lies close to the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nWater vapor imagery indicates that a tight mid-/upper-level low has\r\nfinally become juxtaposed with the surface low, and the two have\r\nremained nearly stationary over the relatively warm waters of the\r\nGulf Stream. However, intrusions of dry air into the inner core have\r\nbeen noted in satellite imagery and upper-air data during the\r\npast several hours, which have likely been the main reason for the\r\nlack of deep convection developing near the center. But with the\r\nlows now vertically stacked and expected to remain over SSTs of\r\nat least 25C for the next 24 hours, some slight strengthening is\r\nexpected. Ana could also transition to a tropical storm during\r\nthat time. By 48 hours and beyond, however, Ana's slow movement will\r\ntake the cyclone over colder shelf waters of around 20C-22C, and\r\nweakening is expected due to the air in the inner core becoming more\r\nstable. Most of the global models now show Ana remaining a distinct\r\nentity through the forecast period and accompanied by winds near\r\ngale force. As a result, the forecast calls for Ana to remain an\r\nextratropical low on Days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast\r\nis similar to the previous advisory and the Decay-SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 31.6N  77.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 31.7N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 31.9N  78.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 32.2N  78.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 32.8N  78.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 34.1N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 37.7N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0600Z 43.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-05-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Ana is starting to show signs of\r\ntransforming into a tropical storm, with a more compact structure\r\nand tighter convective bands near the center.  In addition,\r\naircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the maximum wind band is\r\nbecoming sharper and migrating inward.  The storm still has\r\nless-intense convection than most tropical cyclones, however, and is\r\nstill co-located with an upper-level low; consequently Ana remains\r\nbest classified as subtropical for now. The maximum winds are\r\nestimated to be 40 kt based on the SFMR and flight-level\r\ndata.\r\n\r\nAna has been meandering for the past several hours under a blocking\r\nridge along the U.S. east coast, although recently the storm has\r\ndrifted eastward toward a convective burst.  This ridge will\r\nslowly move eastward over the next couple of days, which\r\nshould steer the storm generally slowly northwestward.  Model\r\nguidance is in good agreement in bringing Ana to the coast of the\r\nCarolinas in about two days.  After that, a strong trough should\r\ncause Ana to move more quickly to the north and east late Sunday\r\nand into early next week. No significant changes were required to\r\nthe previous forecast track, which remains close to the model\r\nconsensus. Extratropical transition is anticipated in about four\r\ndays - in line with the global model guidance.\r\n\r\nSome strengthening of Ana is possible since the cyclone is embedded\r\nwithin an environment of cold upper-level temperatures, leading to\r\nmore thunderstorms than one would expect over the marginally warm\r\nwaters.  However, there is quite a bit of dry air around the storm,\r\nwhich could help limit convection.  Most of the guidance shows some\r\nintensification during the next day or so, and the official forecast\r\ndoes the same. As Ana approaches the coast, some weakening seems\r\nprobable due to the storm moving over cooler shelf waters. The\r\nlatest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, although a little\r\nhigher at 36 and 48 hr to reflect the latest guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 31.5N  77.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 31.8N  77.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 32.1N  77.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 32.6N  78.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 33.2N  78.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 35.1N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 39.0N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1200Z 44.5N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-05-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n500 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015\r\n\r\nAna is in the latter stages of tropical transition with curved deep\r\nconvection closer to the center, with some evidence of a shrinking\r\nradius of maximum winds.  Still, the convection isn't particularly\r\ndeep, and an upper-level low remains basically on top of the\r\ncyclone.  Ana will remain a subtropical cyclone on this advisory,\r\nbut it would not be surprising if the aircraft mission this evening\r\nfound enough tropical characteristics to signal a transition to\r\na tropical storm.  The maximum winds are kept at 40 kt, which is a\r\nblend of the satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nAna continues to meander beneath a blocking ridge along the U.S.\r\neast coast.  While the overall ridge pattern shifts slowly eastward,\r\nthe western part of the ridge is forecast to build slightly over the\r\nOhio Valley tomorrow.  This will help steer Ana more to the\r\nnorthwest, and model guidance continues to be in good agreement in\r\nbringing Ana to the coast of the Carolinas in about two days.  Only\r\na small eastward adjustment was required to the previous forecast\r\ntrack near the time of landfall.  A strong trough should then cause\r\nAna to move more quickly to the north and east late Sunday and into\r\nearly next week.   Extratropical transition should be complete by 96\r\nhr due to interaction of Ana with the trough and the cold waters of\r\nthe North Atlantic.\r\n\r\nSome intensification of Ana is still possible since the cyclone\r\nremains parked over the Gulf Stream with cold upper-level\r\ntemperatures promoting more convection than one would expect given\r\nthe marginally warm waters.  However, there is quite a bit of dry\r\nair around the storm, which seems to be limiting convection. Some\r\nweakening of Ana seems probable on Sunday due to the storm's motion\r\nover cooler shelf waters. The latest NHC forecast is close to\r\nthe previous one, near or slightly above the model consensus. Most\r\nof the global models show a little bit of strengthening of Ana in\r\nits extratropical phase, so the intensity was raised at 96 and 120\r\nhr.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 31.7N  77.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 31.9N  77.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 32.3N  77.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 33.0N  78.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 33.6N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 36.0N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 40.5N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/1800Z 46.0N  50.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-05-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 08 2015\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicate that Ana has intensified.  The strongest winds were\r\nmeasured in a band well to the east and northeast of the center.\r\nThe current intensity is set at 50 kt, a little below the highest\r\nSFMR winds which are believed to be slightly rain-inflated.\r\nThe satellite presentation of Ana is still somewhat subtropical,\r\nwith almost all of the deep convection in a band over the northern\r\nsemicircle of the circulation.  Moreover, observations from the\r\nHurricane Hunters indicate a radius of maximum winds of no less\r\nthan 50-60 n mi.  Therefore Ana is still being designated as a\r\nsubtropical cyclone at this time.  However, there is some indication\r\nthat deep convection is beginning to develop nearer to the center,\r\nand this is a sign that the transition to a tropical cyclone may\r\noccur not long from now.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes from the aircraft show a general northward drift of\r\n350/2.  There is little change to the track forecast reasoning from\r\nthe previous package.  Over the next few days, the presistent\r\nblocking ridge to the north of Ana is forecast to break down and\r\nshift eastward as a broad mid-tropospheric trough moves into\r\nthe U.S. Ohio Valley region.  This evolution of the steering flow\r\nshould cause Ana to turn northwestward and then northward at a\r\nslightly faster forward speed before crossing the coast in 36 to 48\r\nhours. Beyond that time, the flow ahead of the trough should carry\r\nAna or its remnants northeastward at a substantially faster forward\r\nspeed. The official track forecast is close to the previous one and\r\nalso close to the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nDynamical and statistical/dynamical intensity model guidance do not\r\nshow much additional strengthening.  In 24 hours or so, as Ana\r\nmoves northwest of the Gulf Stream, it should encounter\r\nprogressively cooler waters.  This, along with the entrainment of\r\ndrier air, should lead to weakening.  The official wind speed\r\nforecast is fairly similar to the intensity model consensus.  By 96\r\nhours, the latest global model runs show the system degenerating\r\ninto an open trough as Ana's post-tropical remnants merge with a\r\nlarge extratropical low over Atlantic Canada.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 32.1N  77.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 32.4N  77.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 32.9N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 33.6N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 34.3N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 37.0N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-05-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n500 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite and NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that Ana has likely\r\nmade the transition to a tropical cyclone based on the rapid decay\r\nof a previously persistent band of outer convection, recent\r\ndevelopment of inner-core convection within 30-40 nmi of the\r\ncenter, and weak anticyclonic outflow. Between 0500-0700 UTC,\r\naverage Doppler velocities of 58-60 kt with isolated peak values of\r\n63 kt were noted between 8,000-10,000 ft and within 30-40 dBZ\r\nechoes, which would correspond to about 53-54 kt surface winds.\r\nHowever, since that time, that outer band has weakened considerably,\r\nso the initial intensity will remain at 50 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate using a 12-hour motion is 340/03 kt.\r\nThere is no significant change to the previous forecast track or\r\nreasoning. The global and regional models are in very good\r\nagreement that Tropical Storm Ana will move slowly toward the\r\nnorth-northwest or northwest for the next 36 hours or so, followed\r\nby a gradual turn toward the north and northeast ahead of an\r\napproaching deep-layer trough. By 72 hours, Ana is expected to\r\nbecome extratropical and be absorbed by a much larger extratropical\r\nlow pressure system by 96 hours. The official track forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and lies close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe center and inner-core region of Ana currently lie along the\r\naxis of warmest Gulf Stream water of about 25C. Although inner-core\r\nconvection has been developing during the past few hours, it is\r\noccurring in a region where the last recon flight only found winds\r\nof 30-40 kt at the surface and around 45 kt at flight-level. As a\r\nresult, there could be some fluctuations in Ana's intensity in the\r\nnear term this morning. By 12-24 hours, the cyclone's slow forward\r\nspeed will take it over much cooler shelf waters. The combination of\r\nSSTs around 20C-22C and continued entrainment of mid-level dry air\r\nshould induce at least slow weakening until landfall occurs.\r\nAlthough inland at 36 and 48 hours, the intensity has been held up\r\nslightly in anticipation of a band of stronger winds lying just\r\noffshore. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nintensity consensus model ICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 32.4N  77.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 32.8N  77.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 33.5N  78.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 34.3N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 35.2N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 39.0N  73.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-05-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased somewhat near the center of the\r\nstorm, and SFMR observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters\r\ncontinue to support an intensity of 50 kt.  Ana will be moving\r\nover the cooler waters to the northwest of the Gulf Stream later\r\ntoday, and water vapor imagery shows a belt of upper-level\r\nnortherly flow advancing toward the tropical cyclone.  The\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing northerly shear\r\nshould cause Ana to weaken as it nears the coast.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is similar to that from the previous package,\r\nand very close to the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/3.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains basically unchanged from the past few advisories.  Global\r\nmodels continue to predict that the blocking mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of Ana will shift eastward and weaken over the next couple of\r\ndays.  These models also show a broad trough moving from the central\r\nto the eastern U.S. over the next 72 hours or so.  This should\r\nresult in the cyclone turning northward and north-northeastward with\r\na gradual increase in forward speed.  The official track forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one and in good agreement with the latest\r\ndynamical model consensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 32.7N  77.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 33.2N  78.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 33.9N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 34.9N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 36.1N  77.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 40.0N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-05-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n500 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015\r\n\r\nAna continues to maintain deep convection near and east of the\r\ncenter, although the convection is rather ragged-looking.  There is\r\nweak upper-level outflow over the southern portion of the\r\ncirculation.  The current intensity is held at 50 kt, in agreement\r\nwith data from an ASCAT overpass from several hours ago.  Since the\r\nstorm will be moving over progressively cooler waters as it departs\r\nthe Gulf Stream, and is being influenced by northwesterly shear and\r\nsome dry air, gradual weakening is forecast until landfall.  After\r\nAna crosses the coast, the weakening will of course be more rapid.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is again close to IVCN, the\r\nintensity model consensus.  Global model guidance indicates that\r\nAna or its post-tropical remnant will become absorbed by, or merge\r\nwith, a large extratropical cyclone over Atlantic Canada within 72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe center is a little difficult to locate, but my best estimate of\r\nthe initial motion is 320/3.  The track forecast philosophy\r\ncontinues unchanged.  The persistent mid-tropospheric blocking\r\nridge to the north of Ana is predicted by the global models to\r\nshift eastward and weaken during the next day or so.  The models\r\nalso depict a broad trough moving eastward from the central to the\r\neastern U.S. over the next 2-3 days.  This evolution of the\r\nsteering currents should cause Ana to turn northward and\r\nnortheastward.  The official track forecast is similar to the\r\ndynamical model consensus, IVCN, but leans a little more toward the\r\nlatest ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 32.9N  78.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 33.4N  78.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 34.2N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 35.2N  78.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 36.7N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-05-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 09 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structure\r\nincreased in organization during the late afternoon as banding\r\nincreased over the northeastern portion of the circulation.\r\nHowever, during the past few hours, the cloud top temperatures have\r\nwarmed and the convection has decreased in intensity.  Data from an\r\nAir Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the initial\r\nintensity remains at 50 kt, which is in best agreement with\r\nuncontaminated SFMR winds.  Ana is still forecast to weaken slightly\r\nwhile it moves over cooler waters near the coast overnight.\r\nAdditional weakening should occur once the center moves onshore\r\nSunday morning. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on\r\nMonday before it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over\r\neastern North America.\r\n\r\nRadar data and aircraft fixes indicate that Ana is moving north-\r\nnorthwestward, or 320/04.  The tropical cyclone should continue\r\nmoving slowly north-northwestward tonight as a mid-tropospheric\r\nridge to the north of Ana shifts eastward.  A broad trough moving\r\ninto the central and eastern U.S. during the next few days is\r\nexpected to cause the cyclone or its remnants to turn northward on\r\nSunday and then northeastward at a faster forward speed by Sunday\r\nnight.  The updated NHC track is similar to the previous advisory\r\nand is close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 33.2N  78.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 33.8N  78.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 34.7N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 35.9N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 37.8N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-05-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n500 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite and radar data indicate that Ana's convective structure\r\nand organization have continued to increase since the previous\r\nadvisory. Doppler radar data out of Wilmington, North Carolina\r\n(KLTX) indicate average velocities of around 60 kt just a few\r\nthousand a feet above the offshore waters, which would normally\r\nequate to 45-50 kt winds at the surface. However, observations from\r\nbuoys, ships, and coastal surface stations indicate that the\r\ntypically downward mixing of these stronger winds is not occurring\r\ndue to the cooler shelf waters stabilizing the boundary layer. The\r\ninitial intensity of 40 kt, which could be generous, is based on an\r\nearlier report of a 41-kt wind from Buoy 41013 during passage of a\r\nheavy rain band.\r\n\r\nDoppler radar data continue to indicate that Ana has been moving\r\nslowly north-northwestward at about 330/04 kt since the previous\r\nadvisory. The cyclone should maintain this general motion this\r\nmorning, and gradually turn more northward by this afternoon and\r\nevening. On Monday, an approaching large, deep-layer trough should\r\nturn Ana northeastward, accompanied by a marked increase in forward\r\nspeed of about 12-15 kt. The NHC track forecast is essentially just\r\nan update of the previous advisory track and lies close to\r\nthe TVCN consensus model.\r\n\r\nCold shelf waters of 20-21C have taken their toll on Ana's surface\r\nwind field even though the convective banding has improved. Rapid\r\nweakening of the inner-core wind field should occur after the center\r\nof Ana moves inland. However, some strong rain bands accompanied\r\nby tropical-storm-force winds are expected to persist near and just\r\noffshore the North Carolina coast today, and that is the reason for\r\nkeeping the system as a tropical storm for the next 12 hours or so.\r\nAfter that, slow weakening below tropical storm status is expected,\r\nalthough there could be gusts to tropical-storm-force in some of\r\nthe heavier rain squalls over water. Ana is forecast to become a\r\npost-tropical low on Monday, and be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical low by Tuesday when the cyclone is near or east of the\r\nDelMarVa peninsula. The intensity forecast closely follows the\r\nDecay-SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nSince Ana is moving onshore, the reconnaissance flight originally\r\nscheduled for this morning has been canceled. Special thanks for\r\nthe Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for their flights into Ana\r\nowing to their limited resources during the pre-hurricane season.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 33.8N  78.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 34.4N  78.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 35.6N  77.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 37.4N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 39.7N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ana","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-05-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015\r\n\r\nNOAA Doppler radar, surface data and visible satellite imagery\r\nindicate that Ana continues to move over land near the South\r\nCarolina-North Carolina border.  Surface observations suggest that\r\nthe cyclone is barely of tropical storm intensity.  Since the\r\ncenter is expected to be over land at least through tonight,\r\nweakening to a tropical depression is likely later today.  Ana is\r\nforecast to move back over the Atlantic in about 36 hours, but\r\nregeneration after that time is unlikely due to cool waters and\r\nstrong shear.  The global models show the system degenerating into\r\nan open trough and becoming absorbed by a large mid-latitude low\r\nover Atlantic Canada in about 60 hours.\r\n\r\nAna appears to have turned toward the north but the forward speed\r\ncontinues to be quite slow, around 4 kt.  The flow ahead of a broad\r\n500 mb trough should cause Ana or its remnant to turn toward the\r\nnortheast with some acceleration over the next couple of days.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,\r\nand is quite close to the latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nElevated water levels, high surf, and rip currents will continue\r\nto pose a threat over portions of the North and South Carolina\r\ncoasts today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 34.1N  78.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 34.9N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 36.2N  77.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 38.2N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 41.0N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ana","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-05-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012015\r\n500 PM EDT SUN MAY 10 2015\r\n\r\nSurface and radar data indicate that Ana is moving farther inland.\r\nThe estimated intensity is 30 kt, and these winds are confined to\r\nthe coastal areas of North Carolina.  Continued weakening is\r\nexpected, and the system should degenerate into a post-tropical\r\nremnant low within 24 hours.  Although a forecast track is shown\r\nthrough 48 hours, it should be noted that the global models show the\r\nsystem degenerating into an open trough sooner than that time.  In\r\nany event, the remnants of Ana are likely to be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical cyclone over Atlantic Canada.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 020/4 kt.\r\nThe steering flow associated with a large mid-level trough to the\r\nwest of Ana should cause the cyclone to turn northeastward with\r\nsome acceleration over the next day or two.  The official track\r\nforecast lies between the dynamical model consensus and the latest\r\nECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Ana.  Future information on this system can be found in Public\r\nAdvisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11\r\nPM EDT under AWIPS header TCPAT1 AND WMO header WTNT31 KWNH.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 34.4N  78.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 35.3N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 37.0N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 39.3N  73.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 42.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-06-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015\r\n1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and\r\nsurface observations indicate that the circulation associated with\r\nthe low located in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better\r\ndefined since earlier today.  While the circulation still appears to\r\nbe somewhat elongated, the center is defined enough to consider the\r\nsystem a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated on\r\nTropical Storm Bill at this time.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft data indicate an area of 40-45 kt winds north and\r\neast of the center, and the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for\r\nthis advisory.  Given the relatively broad nature of the system, the\r\nlarge radius of maximum winds, and the somewhat ragged convective\r\npattern, only a little strengthening is expected before the center\r\nreaches the coast tomorrow, and the NHC intensity forecast is close\r\nto the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  After landfall Bill is\r\nexpected to weaken to a depression after 24 hours, and the low-level\r\ncirculation is forecast to dissipate by 48 hours following the GFS\r\nand ECMWF solutions.  Note that the global models subsequently show\r\nthe low- to mid-level remnants of Bill moving northward and then\r\nnortheastward ahead of an upper trough into the southern Plains and\r\nmid-Mississippi Valley.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a relatively uncertain 320/10 given\r\nthe recent formation of the center.  The primary steering mechanism\r\nis a mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United\r\nStates, which should result in Bill moving northwestward toward the\r\nTexas coast in the next 12 hours and then inland over south-central\r\nTexas.  The track model guidance is in generally good agreement\r\nthrough landfall.  The NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the\r\nlatest model fields from the UKMET, ECMWF, and GFS models and is a\r\nlittle to the left of the multi-model consensus.  It is important\r\nnot to focus on the exact track of the center, given the large area\r\nacross which heavy rains and tropical storm conditions are expected\r\nto occur.\r\n\r\nGiven this forecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for\r\nmuch of the middle and upper Texas coast.  However, the main hazard\r\nassociated with Bill and its remnants will be heavy rainfall and\r\nflooding across portions of eastern Texas.  Please see products from\r\nyour local National Weather Service office for more information on\r\nthe flooding hazard.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 27.1N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 28.3N  95.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 29.7N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 31.5N  98.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-06-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015\r\n400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nBill has changed little in organization on satellite images over\r\nthe past several hours.  Most of the deep convection is occurring\r\nover the eastern semicircle.  Radar data show some banding features\r\nover the southern portion of the circulation.  Surface observations\r\nover the western Gulf of Mexico suggest that the intensity remains\r\nnear 45 kt.  Since there is little time remaining before the center\r\nreaches the coast, no significant increase in strength is likely\r\nbefore landfall.  Weakening will commence later today after the\r\ncenter moves inland over Texas.  There are some differences in the\r\nevolution of the cyclone over the U.S. in the global models over the\r\nnext few days.  The official forecast shows the circulation\r\ndissipating within 5 days, which is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\npredictions.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate, 310/11, has changed little from the\r\nprevious advisory.  Bill should be steered mainly by the flow\r\naround the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high\r\ncentered over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two.\r\nThereafter, mid-level westerlies should cause Bill's remnant low to\r\nturn northeastward to east-northeastward.  Most of the dynamical\r\ntrack models are in good agreement, and the official forecast is\r\nclosest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nGiven that Bill has a broad circulation, one should not focus on the\r\nexact track, since strong winds and heavy rains are occurring well\r\naway from the center.  To reiterate, the main hazard from Bill\r\nshould be heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern\r\nTexas over the next day or two.  Please see products from your local\r\nNational Weather Service office for more information on the flood\r\nthreat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 27.9N  95.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 29.0N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 30.6N  97.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 32.6N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 34.5N  96.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 36.3N  94.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 39.0N  88.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-06-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Bill is nearing the central Texas coast just south of\r\nPort O'Connor, and the cyclone should move inland shortly. Although\r\nthe satellite presentation isn't terribly impressive, NOAA Doppler\r\nradar data and SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind reports from\r\nan Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft support an intensity of\r\n50 kt.  After Bill makes landfall, steady weakening will begin as\r\nthe cyclone moves farther inland over Texas, although the GFS\r\nsuggests that baroclinic forcing will help maintain the\r\npost-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/09 kt. Bill is expected to move\r\naround the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high\r\nlocated over the southeastern U.S. during the next day or two. By\r\n48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to get caught up in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies, resulting in a turn and acceleration to the\r\nnortheastward to east-northeast. The global and regional models are\r\nin good agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast is\r\nvery similar to the previous advisory track and a consensus of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nAlthough the storm's strongest winds are located very close to the\r\ncenter, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains are occurring\r\nwell away from the center.  The main hazard from Bill is expected to\r\nbe heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and\r\neastern Oklahoma over the next day or two.  Please see products from\r\nyour local National Weather Service office for more information on\r\nthe flood threat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 28.2N  96.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 29.7N  97.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 31.6N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 33.4N  97.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 34.9N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 36.8N  92.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 39.3N  87.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-06-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015\r\n400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nAfter an earlier westward wobble, Bill is now moving toward the\r\nnorth-northwest or north based on Doppler radar data. My best\r\nestimate for a storm motion is 330/08 kt. Bill is expected to move\r\nnorth-northwestward tonight and turn toward the north over\r\nnorth-central Texas on Monday as the cyclone moves through a break\r\nin the subtropical ridge. By 36-48 hours, Bill is forecast to get\r\ncaught up into the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate off to the\r\nnortheast and east-northeast. By 120 hours, the remnant circulation\r\nis expected to merge with a frontal system across the Ohio Valley\r\nregion. The global models are in good agreement on this developing\r\nscenario and the NHC forecast track is just an update of the\r\nprevious one, and lies close to a blend of the slower GFS, ECMWF,\r\nand UKMET global models.\r\n\r\nAlthough the inner-core banding structure of Bill has improved in\r\nradar imagery, the cyclone is expected to slowly weaken as the\r\nsystem continues to move farther inland. Bill should weaken to a\r\ntropical depression by Wednesday morning and become a remnant low by\r\nWednesday evening when the system is moving across northern Texas.\r\nThe GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models now suggest that baroclinic forcing\r\nassociated with an upper-level trough will help maintain the\r\npost-tropical remnants as a distinct entity for a few days before\r\nbeing absorbed by a frontal system by day 5.\r\n\r\nTropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains continue to occur well\r\naway from the center.  The main hazard from Bill is expected to be\r\nheavy rainfall and flooding across portions of eastern Texas and\r\neastern Oklahoma over the next day or two.  Please see products from\r\nyour local National Weather Service office for more information on\r\nthe flood threat.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 28.4N  96.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 29.9N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 32.0N  97.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 33.6N  97.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 34.7N  95.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 36.7N  92.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 39.0N  86.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  21/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bill","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-06-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nBill has continued to weaken while it moves farther inland over\r\nTexas. The initial intensity is estimated at 35 kt, but surface\r\nobservations indicate that these winds are confined to a few\r\nrainbands over water to the southeast of the center. Because most\r\nof the circulation is already inland, additional weakening is\r\nanticipated, and Bill is expected to become a tropical depression\r\nWednesday morning, and a remnant low on Thursday.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north or 350\r\ndegrees at 10 kt, and this is based primarily on NWS Doppler Radar\r\ndata. Bill is forecast to move northward for the next day or so\r\naround the western periphery of high pressure centered over the\r\nsoutheastern United States. After that time, the cyclone or its\r\nremnants will move toward the northeast while embedded within the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies. Most likely the system will become absorbed\r\nby a front by day 4.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from Bill is expected to be primarily heavy rainfall\r\nand flooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma\r\nover the next day or two.  Please see products from your local\r\nNational Weather Service office for more information on the flood\r\nthreat.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 29.5N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 31.0N  97.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 33.2N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 34.8N  96.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 35.5N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 37.5N  90.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bill","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-06-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022015\r\n400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015\r\n\r\nWhile radar data show that Bill is maintaining a good\r\nconvective banding structure, surface observations indicate that\r\nthe cyclone has weakened to a tropical depression over central\r\nTexas.  The initial intensity is 30 kt, with these winds occurring\r\nin rainbands near and east of the center.  The large-scale models\r\nsuggest that only slow weakening will occur during the next 24-36\r\nhours, and Bill is likely to remain a tropical cyclone until the\r\ncenter moves into eastern Oklahoma on Thursday.  After that, the\r\ncyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low, with the low\r\nbeing absorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States\r\nin about 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 360/11.  Bill is expected to moved northward\r\nfor the next 12-24 hours on the west side of the subtropical ridge.\r\nSubsequently, the cyclone should turn northeastward as it enters\r\nthe westerlies.  The track model guidance is in good agreement with\r\nthis scenario, and the new forecast track lies close to the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from Bill is expected to be heavy rainfall and\r\nflooding across portions of eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma\r\nover the next day or two.  Please see products from your local\r\nNational Weather Service office for more information on the flood\r\nthreat.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Bill issued by the National Hurricane\r\nCenter.  Future information on this system can be found in Public\r\nAdvisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10\r\nAM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and on\r\nthe web at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 31.0N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 32.6N  97.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 34.3N  96.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 35.5N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 36.5N  93.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 38.5N  89.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-07-13 17:00:00","Key":"AL032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015\r\n100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nThe small low pressure area that moved off the coast of North\r\nCarolina over the weekend has lost its frontal characteristics and\r\nacquired organized deep convection overnight.  The convection,\r\nalbeit primarily over the eastern semicircle of the sheared system,\r\nhas persisted for more the 12 hours.  Recent ASCAT data indicated\r\nthat the cyclone has maximum winds of 40 to 45 kt and a well-defined\r\ncirculation.  Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on\r\nTropical Storm Claudette, the third tropical storm of the 2015\r\nAtlantic hurricane season.\r\n\r\nClaudette is expected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone since\r\nit will be moving over much cooler waters and into an area of\r\nincreasing southwesterly shear tonight.  The cyclone could\r\nstrengthen slightly in the very near term, but is expected to\r\nweaken later tonight and become post-tropical shortly thereafter.\r\nThe post-tropical cyclone is forecast to dissipate within 2 to 3\r\ndays as it accelerates northeastward. The global models are in good\r\nagreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the\r\ntightly clustered guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1700Z 37.4N  68.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 38.5N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 41.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 43.9N  61.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 47.2N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015\r\n500 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nClaudette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with the low-level center\r\nexposed to the southwest of the main mass of deep convection.  The\r\ncurrent intensity estimate is held at 45 kt, well above the Dvorak\r\nestimates, based on the earlier scatterometer data.  The numerical\r\nguidance indicates that the cyclone will be affected by vertical\r\nshear of greater than 30 kt over the next day or so, and this\r\nshould prevent significant strengthening.  Weakening should\r\ncommence tomorrow, and the system will likely become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone in 36 hours or sooner.  Both the ECMWF and\r\nGFS global models show the cyclone losing its identity in 48 hours,\r\nso the official forecast shows dissipation at that time.\r\n\r\nClaudette is beginning to accelerate and the motion estimate is now\r\n045/15.  An additional increase in forward speed is expected as the\r\nstorm moves in the flow ahead of a mid-level trough near the Great\r\nLakes.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand on the left side of the guidance envelope.  This is in best\r\nagreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 38.1N  66.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 39.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 42.6N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 45.7N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015\r\n1100 PM AST MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nClaudette has not changed much in strength this evening.  The cloud\r\npattern remains asymmetric with all of the deep convection confined\r\nto the northeast part of the circulation due to about 30 kt\r\nof southwesterly shear.  Continued strong shear combined with much\r\ncolder water along the expected track should cause Claudette to lose\r\nits tropical characteristics in 24 hours or less.  The global\r\nmodels show the post-tropical low dissipating on Wednesday.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that the center of the storm is located to\r\nthe southeast of the previous track.  The latest initial motion\r\nestimate is east-northeastward at 17 kt.  A turn to the northeast\r\nor north-northeast is expected to occur on Tuesday, and that general\r\nmotion should continue until the storm dissipates.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one and is\r\nin best agreement with the GFS model.\r\n\r\nThe intensity and wind radii forecasts are based on guidance from\r\nNOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 38.9N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 40.6N  62.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 43.2N  59.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 46.3N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015\r\n500 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nClaudette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the center\r\nlocated to the south of a new burst of deep convection that has\r\ndeveloped overnight.  Satellite intensity estimates suggest that\r\nthe tropical cyclone has weakened slightly, so the initial\r\nintensity has been lowered to 40 kt.  Claudette will be crossing\r\nthe north wall of the Gulf Stream and over much colder waters this\r\nmorning.  The unfavorable SSTs and strong southwesterly shear\r\nshould cause Claudette to lose its tropical characteristics later\r\ntoday.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate as it\r\napproaches or moves over Newfoundland on Wednesday.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 050/17 kt.  The cyclone is expected\r\nto move between northeast and north-northeast within deep-layer\r\nsouthwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.  The new NHC forecast\r\nis essentially an update of the previous advisory, and lies between\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 40.1N  63.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 41.9N  61.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 45.0N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 48.0N  55.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015\r\n1100 AM AST TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nClaudette's cloud pattern is rapidly becoming less organized. Deep\r\nconvection continues to burst northeast of the low-level center,\r\nwith the latter becoming increasingly exposed and diffuse this\r\nmorning. The cyclone's current structure is symptomatic of deep\r\nlayer of southwesterly shear of over 30 kt, as diagnosed by SHIPS\r\nmodel analyses. Dvorak classifications were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35\r\nkt from SAB and TAFB at 1200 UTC, respectively. The initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 35 kt, at the higher end of these estimates\r\ndue to the storm's increasing forward speed. Claudette has already\r\npassed the northern wall of the Gulf Stream and will be moving\r\nover sea surface temperatures below 20 deg C soon.  Cooler waters, a\r\nmuch more stable and drier atmosphere, and continued strong\r\nsouthwesterly shear should contribute to Claudette's weakening.\r\nGlobal models suggest that extratropical transition should occur in\r\nabout 24 hours, with the system opening up into a trough shortly\r\nafter that.  The official intensity forecast is in excellent\r\nagreement with the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 050/18.  Prior to dissipation\r\ntomorrow, Claudette's track should turn north-northeastward with\r\nsome additional acceleration while it rotates around large\r\ndeep-layer cyclone over eastern Canada.  The latest track forecast\r\nhas changed little from the previous one.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 41.4N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 43.6N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 46.7N  56.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Claudette","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015\r\n500 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nRecent visible satellite imagery indicates Claudette's circulation\r\nhas become shallow and disorganized, with the low-level circulation\r\ncompletely decoupled from the convection to the east-northeast.  An\r\nuncontaminated ASCAT pass at 1430 UTC observed winds of 42 kt in the\r\nsoutheast quadrant, which indicates that Claudette has maintained\r\nits intensity longer than expected.  Assuming some weakening has\r\noccurred since the ASCAT pass, the initial intensity estimate is set\r\nat 40 kt.  Further weakening should occur over the next 12 hours as\r\nthe system moves over progressively colder SSTs and transitions to\r\nan extratropical cyclone.  Global models show the system opening up\r\ninto a trough in 24 hours and the official forecast calls for\r\ndissipation by that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 050/18 kt.  Claudette is forecast to\r\ncontinue toward the north-northeast while it rotates around a large\r\ndeep-layer cyclone over eastern Canada.  The official track\r\nforecast is close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 42.5N  59.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 44.8N  57.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Claudette","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nClaudette has lacked organized deep convection for nearly 10 hours\r\nnow, and it only consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.  The\r\ncyclone is currently over SSTs near 17 C, so it is highly unlikely\r\nthat significant thunderstorm activity will return.  Therefore,\r\nClaudette is considered a post-tropical cyclone, and this is the\r\nlast advisory on this system issued by the National Hurricane\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical cyclone is moving quickly northeastward at\r\nabout 18 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue until\r\nthe cyclone dissipates on Wednesday.  The current wind speed is\r\nestimated to be 40 kt based on recent ASCAT data.  Environment\r\nCanada's buoy 44141 has been helpful in locating the center and\r\nestimating the minimum pressure.\r\n\r\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\r\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 43.8N  57.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 46.0N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe low pressure system that has been moving westward across the\r\neastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquired\r\nenough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical\r\ncyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has a\r\nwell-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-kt\r\nand greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so\r\nthe initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-level\r\noutflow is good to the south and fair to the north.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regional\r\nmodels are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving\r\nwest-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer\r\nsubtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by a\r\ndecrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness in\r\nthis ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back in\r\nas a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn more\r\nwestward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod. The official forecast track lies close to but a little\r\nfaster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slower\r\nGFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.\r\n\r\nThe overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding the\r\ncyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengthening\r\nthroughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will be\r\noccasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with the\r\nSaharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.\r\nHowever, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,\r\nthe convective structure is expected to steadily increase in\r\norganization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus\r\nmodel IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of the\r\nDecay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 10.6N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 11.0N  37.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 11.3N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 11.6N  40.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 12.1N  41.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 13.2N  44.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 13.7N  47.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 14.0N  52.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued\r\nto improve since the previous advisory, including the development of\r\ninterlocking curved convective cloud bands and the formation of an\r\nupper-level anticyclonic outflow pattern. Passive microwave images\r\nindicate that the cyclone has a well-developed low- and mid-level\r\nstructure. The intensity has been increased to 35 kt based on a\r\nDvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and a\r\nUW-CIMMS ADT estimate of T2.5/35 kt. As a result, the system has\r\nbeen upgraded to Tropical Storm Danny on this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 280/11 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The\r\nglobal and regional models remain in good agreement on Danny moving\r\nwest-northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge\r\nlocated along 45W longitude for the next 72 hours. After that time,\r\nhowever, there is some spread in the model guidance based on how\r\nmuch and how soon the ridge builds back in to the north of Danny.\r\nThe UKMET retains the weakness in the ridge longer, taking the\r\ncyclone northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In contrast, the ECMWF\r\nmodel strengthens the ridge sooner, which drives Danny more westward\r\nand considerably faster at 96 and 120 hours. The GFS poorly\r\ninitialized Danny this morning, and it is noticeably slower than\r\nall of the available model guidance and, therefore, has been given\r\nmuch less weight on this forecast cycle. The official forecast track\r\nis faster than the consensus model TVCN due to the much slower GFS\r\nmodel inducing a significant slow bias in the model consensus, and\r\nis roughly a blend of the ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS-Ensemble mean\r\nforecast solutions.\r\n\r\nAtmospheric and oceanic conditions surrounding Danny are expected\r\nto be favorable for slow but steady strengthening throughout the\r\nforecast period. The only inhibiting factor appears to be dry\r\nmid-level air located to the north and west of Danny occasionally\r\ngetting entrained into the circulation. However, the low vertical\r\nwind shear regime that Danny will be migrating through should allow\r\nthe convective structure of the cyclone to steadily increase in\r\norganization, which should enable the circulation to quickly mix out\r\nany dry air intrusions. The official intensity forecast is similar\r\nto but slightly lower than the intensity consensus model IVCN\r\nthrough 96 hours, and near the LGEM intensity model at 120 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 10.9N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 11.2N  38.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 11.6N  40.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 12.0N  41.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 12.5N  43.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 13.4N  46.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 13.9N  49.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 14.5N  54.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015\r\n\r\nDanny has become a little better organized since the last advisory,\r\nwith a central convective feature and some outer banding in the\r\nsoutheastern semicircle.  At 2200 UTC, PIRATA buoy 41026 reported\r\n42-kt sustained winds just north of the center, and an ASCAT-B\r\noverpass near 2330 UTC showed many 40-45 kt vectors.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt.  The ASCAT\r\ndata also showed that the storm was a little larger than previously\r\nthought.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 285/12.  Danny is on the south side of\r\nthe subtropical ridge.  The dynamical models forecast the ridge to\r\nweaken during the next 48-72 hours due to developing mid- to\r\nupper-level troughs near Bermuda and over the northeastern\r\nAtlantic.  This should result in Danny continuing on a\r\nwest-northwestward track with a decrease in forward speed.  After\r\n72 hours, the trough near Bermuda should move northward and allow\r\nthe subtropical ridge to intensify.  In response, Danny is expected\r\nto turn westward with an increase in forward speed.  The GFS had a\r\nbetter initialization of Danny on the 1800 UTC run, and it now\r\nforecasts a faster forward motion.  Otherwise, there are no\r\nsignificant changes in the track guidance since the last advisory.\r\nThus, the new forecast track is an update of the previous track and\r\nlies near the consensus models and the center of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nDanny is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind\r\nshear through the forecast period, and earlier Windsat data\r\nsuggest the storm has tight convective banding near the center.\r\nIn addition, the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model has\r\nabout a 50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening during the next\r\n24 hours.  However, there is abundant dry air near Danny,\r\nparticularly to the north of the storm, and the dynamical models\r\nforecast Danny to encounter increasingly drier air through the\r\nforecast period.  The intensity forecast, which follows the overall\r\ntrend of the intensity guidance, calls for continued strengthening\r\nthrough 96 hours, followed by a slight weakening due to dry air.\r\nThe new forecast has a higher peak intensity than that of the\r\nprevious advisory, but is not as intense as the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels.  There are two alternative possibilities for this forecast.\r\nThe first is that rapid intensification occurs in the next 24 hours\r\nbefore dry air entrains into Danny's core.  The second is that\r\nenough dry air starts entraining during the next 24 hours to cause a\r\nslower rate of development than currently forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 11.2N  38.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 11.6N  40.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 11.9N  41.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 12.3N  42.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 12.8N  44.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 13.5N  47.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 14.5N  51.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 15.0N  56.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the past few\r\nhours. The convection near the center has been intermittent,\r\nwhile a band of thunderstorm has been developing on the eastern\r\nsemicircle. The outflow to the west appears to be fair. Microwave\r\ndata do not show any significant increase in organization of the\r\ninner core at this time. The initial intensity has been kept at 45\r\nkt since the subjective Dvorak T-numbers have not changed.\r\n\r\nSHIPS model indicate that Danny will continue to be embedded within\r\nan environment of very light shear, and only dry air appears to be\r\nthe unfavorable factor for strengthening. In fact, the SHIPS rapid\r\nintensification index RI continues to be high, but not as much as\r\nit was indicated in the previous run. Most of the models call for\r\nintensification during the next 3 to 4 days, but none is as\r\naggressive as the LGEM model, which makes Danny and intense\r\nhurricane by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast\r\nis closer to the consensus, and calls for a more modest\r\nstrengthening with some slight decrease in intensity as Danny\r\napproaches the Lesser Antilles.\r\n\r\nThe center is difficult to locate on infrared images, and there are\r\nsome indications that Danny could be moving a little faster. Given\r\nthe uncertainties of the location of storm, and assuming that the\r\ncenter is still under the convective canopy, the best estimate of\r\nthe initial motion is toward the west, but still at 12 kt. The\r\npersistent subtropical ridge over the Atlantic will likely continue\r\nto steer Danny on a general west to west-northwest track during the\r\nnext five days. The guidance envelope shifted northward in the last\r\nrun, but the ECMWF still favors a more westward track.  The NHC\r\nforecast was shifted a little bit to the north, following the\r\nmulti-model consensus, and lies between the GFS and the ECMWF.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 11.3N  40.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 11.7N  41.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 12.2N  43.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 12.6N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 13.2N  46.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 14.5N  50.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 15.5N  54.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 16.5N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 19 2015\r\n\r\nWhile there has not been much overall change to Danny's curved-band\r\ncloud pattern, there is evidence in satellite imagery of\r\nincreased inner-core structural organization since yesterday.  Cloud\r\ntop temperatures, however, have warmed in recent hours. The initial\r\nintensity is held at 45 kt in agreement with the latest CI number\r\nfrom TAFB.\r\n\r\nThere is nothing obvious that would impede gradual intensification\r\nduring the next few days, except for the possible entrainment of\r\ndry air associated with a Saharan Air Layer following the cyclone\r\nto the north.  Around the time Danny approaches the Lesser Antilles\r\nin 3 to 5 days, global models have divergent solutions regarding the\r\nstrength and position of the mid-oceanic trough, which will\r\nultimately affect Danny's intensity.  The ECMWF shows upper-level\r\nwesterlies and even drier air associated with this feature holding\r\nsway over the Caribbean region, while the GFS shows a relaxation\r\nof the shear.  The statistical guidance, strongly dependent on the\r\nGFS forecast fields, continues to indicate a higher intensity, yet\r\nthe dynamical models suggest less overall intensification and even\r\nweakening late in the forecast period. The GFS-based guidance seems\r\nless likely relative to the other model solutions, especially given\r\nthe strength and persistence of the mid-oceanic trough thus far this\r\nseason.  The intensity forecast is therefore reduced throughout\r\nthe forecast period but especially at later times and is close to or\r\njust above the multi-model consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes indicate that Danny's forward speed has decreased\r\nslightly, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10.  An enhanced\r\nmid-oceanic trough, extending from the northeastern Atlantic to the\r\nCaribbean Sea, is forecast to keep the subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth of Danny somewhat weak over the next few days.  This should\r\nresult in Danny's continued movement toward the west or west-\r\nnorthwest across the tropical Atlantic, albeit at a less than\r\nclimatological rate of speed.  Later in the forecast period, large-\r\nscale models are in agreement that there should be some re-\r\nstrengthening of the subtropical ridge, which would result in\r\nDanny's moving at a slightly faster forward speed.  The cyclone's\r\nheading late in the forecast period should largely be a function of\r\nthe depth of the system. A weaker Danny would move westward faster,\r\nas is the case in the ECMWF solution.  A stronger system, like the\r\none that the GFS shows, would tend to gain more latitude.  The\r\ntrack forecast is adjusted southward this forecast cycle, based on\r\nan initial re-positioning of the cyclone and with the expectation\r\nthat Danny could be somewhat weaker later in the forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 11.2N  41.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 11.4N  42.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 11.9N  44.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 12.4N  45.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 13.1N  47.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 14.4N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 15.6N  56.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 16.6N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows that Danny's deep convection collapsed late\r\nthis morning, with the experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat\r\nimagery suggesting that dry-air entrainment could be the cause.\r\nAlthough visible satellite pictures still show a vigorous\r\ncirculation and some renewed convection, the system overall has lost\r\norganization and become more embedded in the Intertropical\r\nConvergence Zone since yesterday. With little change in the Dvorak\r\nclassifications, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt in agreement\r\nwith the latest CI number from TAFB.\r\n\r\nGiven the current appearance of the cyclone, it might be that\r\ndry air associated with the SAL intruding from the north and west\r\nhas become a greater impediment to intensification.  Dry air aside,\r\nother atmospheric parameters governing intensification would seem to\r\nfavor some strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days, and the\r\nofficial forecast shows modest strengthening.  After that time,\r\nsignificantly drier mid-tropospheric air and an increase in westerly\r\nflow aloft associated with an enhanced and persistent mid-oceanic\r\ntrough across the Caribbean region is expected to induce weakening\r\nas shown in the ECWMF solution.  There is a large discrepancy\r\nbetween the statistical and dynamical model guidance, with the\r\nGFS-based statistical guidance continuing to show more\r\nintensification and the regional hurricane models showing only\r\nmodest strengthening followed by weakening.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is similar to but a little lower than the previous one at\r\nlater times, consistent with the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been moving generally west but at a slower forward\r\nspeed (280/08) in response to a weakening subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone.  A west-northwestward motion is expected\r\nduring the next next 2 to 3 days, at which time an interesting\r\nsplit in the model guidance occurs.  The GFS shows a much stronger\r\nrepresentation of Danny moving west-northwestward near and north of\r\nthe Greater Antilles in 3 to 5 days.  The ECWMF solution, on the\r\nother hand, depicts Danny as a shallower feature from the start and\r\nas a weakening cyclone as it nears the Lesser Antilles on a westward\r\ntrack.  The new forecast track maintains the philosophy of the\r\nprevious one by showing a general westward track in the extended\r\nrange, giving more weight to the ECMWF solution that shows\r\nweakening.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 11.5N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 12.1N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 12.6N  44.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 13.1N  46.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 13.8N  47.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 15.0N  51.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 16.0N  56.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 16.8N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 19 2015\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Danny has increased in both coverage and\r\norganization during the past several hours.  Overall, though, the\r\nstorm still looks a little less organized than 24 hours ago.  The\r\nvarious satellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the last\r\nadvisory, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  The cirrus\r\noutflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere.\r\n\r\nDanny has turned to the right over the past several hours, and the\r\ninitial motion is now 295/9.  A weak subtropical ridge north of the\r\ncyclone is expected to steer Danny generally west-northwestward for\r\nthe next couple of days.  After that, the ridge is forecast to\r\nstrengthen as a mid- to upper-level low currently near Bermuda\r\nlifts out to the north.  This should cause Danny to turn more\r\nwestward at a faster forward speed, with the center forecast to be\r\nnear the Leeward Islands by 120 hours.  There is some spread in\r\nthe guidance during this time, with the UKMET, GFDN, GFDL and NAVGEM\r\nmodels showing a more northward motion than the other guidance.  One\r\nchange since the previous advisory is that the new GFS has shifted\r\nsouthward and now lies closer to the ECMWF forecast on the south\r\nside of the guidance envelope.  The new track forecast, which is on\r\nthe south side of the guidance near the ECMWF/GFS/HWRF/GFS Ensemble\r\nMean solutions, is similar to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nEarlier Windsat data shows that Danny has a well-defined inner\r\ncore, and this, combined with a light-vertical wind shear\r\nenvironment, should allow strengthening for the next three days or\r\nso.  However, experimental Saharan Air Layer (SAL) Meteosat\r\nimagery continues to show abundant dry air not far from the storm\r\nin the northern semicircle.  Entrainment of this air is expected to\r\nlimit intensification, and this is reflected by a downward trend in\r\nthe intensity guidance.  After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to\r\nencounter even drier air and southwesterly shear, which should cause\r\nweakening.  The new intensity forecast is identical to the previous\r\nforecast through 48 hours and then shows slightly lower intensities\r\nthereafter.  It should be noted that the ECMWF and Canadian models\r\nforecast Danny to weaken to a tropical wave by 120 hours, which is a\r\nplausible alternative scenario given the forecast environment and\r\nthe small size of the cyclone.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 12.1N  42.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 12.6N  43.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 13.1N  45.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 13.7N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 14.4N  48.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 15.5N  53.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 16.0N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 17.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern resembles a tropical cyclone much more than 12\r\nhours ago.  An irregular Central Dense Overcast(CDO) has formed, and\r\nthe center continues to be remarkably well depicted in microwave\r\nimages. In fact, it has a much better structure than earlier. The\r\noutflow remains fair. Dvorak numbers suggest that the winds are\r\nstill 45 kt. Danny has the opportunity to strengthen a little during\r\nthe next 2 to 3 days while embedded within very light shear. Models\r\nin general, however, no longer intensify the cyclone as much as they\r\ndid in earlier runs and, in fact, the GFS and ECMWF weaken Danny to\r\na tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast calls\r\nfor some intensification for the next 3 days, and calls for slight\r\nweakening as Danny encounters high shear and dry air in the eastern\r\nCaribbean Sea.\r\n\r\nMicrowave fixes indicate that Danny is moving toward the west or 280\r\ndegrees at 9 kt. A turn toward the west-northwest toward a weakness\r\nin the subtropical ridge is expected soon. After 48 hours, most\r\nof the global models forecast the subtropical ridge to expand\r\nwestward, forcing Danny to turn back to the west as indicated in the\r\nNHC forecast.  The multi-model consensus as well as the consensus of\r\nthe GFS and the ECMWF depict the expansion of the ridge, and bring\r\nDanny to the eastern Caribbean, while the UK and the GFDL models\r\ninsist on taking the cyclone north of the islands. In summary, it\r\nappears that a tropical cyclone or a perhaps a wave will be moving\r\nover the Leeward Islands between 4 and 5 days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 12.2N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 12.6N  44.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 13.5N  46.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 14.3N  47.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 15.0N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 15.5N  54.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 16.3N  60.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 17.0N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015\r\n\r\nDanny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous\r\nadvisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the\r\ncenter of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery\r\nindicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The\r\ninitial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak\r\nclassifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature.  Conventional and\r\nmicrowave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small\r\ntropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward\r\nor 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good\r\nagreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72\r\nhours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W\r\nlongitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast\r\nby the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120\r\nhours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nDanny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track\r\non days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an\r\nupdate of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a\r\nlittle north of the previous track after that in agreement with the\r\nconsensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nDanny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in\r\nstrength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously\r\ndifficult to forecast.  Low-shear conditions are expected to\r\ncontinue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further\r\nstrengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be\r\nsurrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core\r\nand disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the\r\nvertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly\r\nand increase to near 15 kt.  As a result, Danny is expected to be\r\nweakening as it approaches the Leeward Island.  The official\r\nintensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and\r\nearlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN\r\nconsensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 12.5N  44.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 13.1N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 14.0N  47.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 14.7N  49.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 15.2N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 16.0N  56.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 16.9N  61.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 18.0N  66.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall cloud pattern of Danny has continued to improve with the\r\ndevelopment of a tiny eye within a small central dense overcast,\r\nas well as some outer convective banding features. The\r\ninitial intensity of 70 kt is based on a blend of consensus Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB and\r\nan NHC objective Dvorak classification of T4.5/77 kt using the\r\npinhole eye scene type.  Satellite data continue to indicate that\r\nDanny is an unusually small tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/09 kt. NHC model guidance continues to be\r\nin good agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48\r\nhours or so, followed by a turn toward the west thereafter\r\nas a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W fills in. As the\r\nridge builds westward to the north of Danny, the cyclone is expected\r\nto accelerate and move a little faster during the 72-120 hour\r\nperiod. The official forecast track is essentially just an update of\r\nthe previous advisory and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nDanny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in\r\nstrength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are difficult, at\r\nbest, to forecast.  Low-shear conditions and SSTs near 28 deg C are\r\nexpected to continue along the forecast track for the next 24 hours\r\nor so, which should allow for some further strengthening during that\r\ntime. Although Danny continues to be surrounded by dry mid-level\r\nair, the recent development of outer banding features noted in\r\nsatellite images suggests that entrainment of this dry air might not\r\nbe as much of an inhibiting factor as it has been during the past\r\ncouple of days. However, by 36 hours and beyond, the 850-200 mb\r\nvertical wind shear is expected to increase from a southerly to\r\nsouthwesterly direction, which should induce weakening, especially\r\nas Danny approaches or moves through the Leeward Island. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and lies\r\nclose to the IVCN consensus model.\r\n\r\nBoth NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will be\r\ninvestigating Danny Friday afternoon, and that data will provide a\r\nbetter estimate of the hurricane's structure and strength.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 13.0N  45.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 13.6N  46.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 14.4N  48.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 15.0N  50.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 15.5N  52.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 16.2N  57.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 17.2N  62.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 18.0N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 20 2015\r\n\r\nDanny continues to produce a compact central dense overcast, and\r\ncloud tops are a little colder than earlier due to a recent burst of\r\nconvection in the eyewall.  Coincidentally, the convective canopy\r\nhas intermittently been obscuring the tiny eye that was observed\r\nearlier today.  The initial intensity remains 70 kt based on a blend\r\nof subjective Dvorak satellite estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and\r\nT4.5/77 kt from SAB.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to move west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt,\r\ntoward a break in the subtropical ridge located northeast of the\r\nLeeward Islands.  The track guidance shows this motion continuing\r\nfor another 36 hours, with Danny then turning westward and\r\naccelerating from 48 hours through day 5 while the ridge builds\r\nwestward north of the Greater Antilles.  With the exception of the\r\nGFDL, GFDN, and NAVGEM--which insist that Danny will turn\r\nnorthwestward before reaching the Leeward Islands--the other track\r\nmodels are in agreement on a future track near or just south of the\r\nnorthern Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles.  This clustering of\r\nthe guidance required no significant changes to the official NHC\r\ntrack forecast on this advisory cycle.\r\n\r\nAs has been mentioned in earlier discussions, Danny is susceptible\r\nto sudden and possibly unexpected changes in intensity due to its\r\nsmall size.  Since vertical shear is expected to remain low for\r\nanother 24 hours or so, Danny could certainly strengthen some more\r\nif it can avoid intrusions of dry air into the inner core.  After\r\n36 hours, an increase in westerly to southwesterly shear and a\r\ndecrease in mid-level relative humidities are expected to lead to\r\nweakening, and Danny is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm\r\nbefore it reaches the Leeward Islands.  The updated NHC intensity\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one and remains close to\r\nthe IVCN consensus.  It should be noted that given Danny's small\r\nsize, the weakening rate after 36 hours could be faster than\r\nindicated in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nA NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around\r\nDanny Friday afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance\r\naircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 13.4N  46.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 14.0N  47.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 14.7N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 15.2N  51.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 15.6N  54.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 16.5N  59.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 17.5N  64.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 18.0N  69.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015\r\n\r\nDanny has strengthened a little overnight.  The eye of the compact\r\nhurricane has become more distinct recently and the cloud tops have\r\ncooled in the eyewall.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB\r\nwere both T4.5 at 0600 UTC, and the initial wind speed has been\r\nnudged upward to 75 kt accordingly.  The eye of Danny passed about\r\n75 n mi south of NOAA buoy 41041 a few hours ago and winds at that\r\nlocation were only around 20 kt, indicative of the very small size\r\nof the wind field of this hurricane.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone continues to move west-northwestward at about 9 kt.\r\nThe relatively slow forward speed of the system is due to a trough\r\nover the western Atlantic, which has weakened the subtropical\r\nridge.  This trough is expected to lift northward in a couple of\r\ndays, allowing the ridge to build westward and strengthen.  The\r\nchange in the steering flow should cause Danny to turn westward and\r\nspeed up this weekend and early next week.  The track guidance\r\nremains in good agreement, and the NHC forecast lies closest to the\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.  The new forecast track is\r\njust a tad to the north of the previous one at days 4 and 5, but is\r\notherwise just an update.\r\n\r\nDanny is currently in a very low wind shear environment and over\r\nwarm water, and it is expected to remain in these favorable\r\nconditions for about another 12-24 hours.  Therefore, additional\r\nstrengthening is possible in the short term.  Beyond that time,\r\nhowever, the system is expected to move into an area of increased\r\nsouthwesterly shear and drier air.  These factors should induce a\r\nweakening trend.  The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement\r\nwith the intensity model consensus IVCN.  As mentioned in previous\r\ndiscussions, the small size of the hurricane makes it susceptible to\r\nsudden changes in intensity, which are difficult to predict.\r\n\r\nA NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around\r\nDanny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance\r\naircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon.  These data\r\nwill provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of\r\nthe hurricane.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 13.7N  47.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 14.3N  48.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 14.9N  50.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 15.5N  53.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 15.9N  55.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 16.7N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 17.8N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 18.5N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015\r\n\r\nDanny has continued to strengthen during the past several hours.\r\nThe small eye has become better defined, and it is now embedded in\r\na circular central dense overcast.  In addition, the ragged outer\r\nbanding has increased in coverage and now surrounds the central\r\nconvection.  The initial intensity is increased to 90 kt in\r\nagreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  It\r\nis notable that experimental multispectral METEOSAT imagery suggests\r\nthat low-level moisture has wrapped around the cyclone and pushed\r\nthe drier air farther away.  This could be helping both the\r\nintensification and the increase in outer banding.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/9.  The subtropical ridge north of Danny\r\nremains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over the\r\nwestern Atlantic.  This trough is expected to lift northward in a\r\ncouple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward and\r\nstrengthen.  This evolution should cause Danny to turn more\r\nwestward with some increase in forward speed.  The track guidance\r\nis in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be\r\nnear the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico in\r\nabout 96 hours, and near Hispaniola in about 120 hours.  The new\r\nforecast track, which is in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels, lies close to the previous forecast through 96 hours and a\r\nlittle to the north of the previous forecast at 120 hours.\r\n\r\nDanny is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear.\r\nHowever, it is about to encounter increasing upper-level\r\nsouthwesterly flow associated with a trough over the northeastern\r\nCaribbean, with the shear forecast to increase to over 20 kt by 96\r\nhours.  This, combined with the abundant dry air remaining along the\r\nforecast track, should cause Danny to weaken below hurricane\r\nstrength as it approaches the Caribbean islands.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is a little stronger than the intensity consensus through\r\n96 hours.  After that, it is weaker than most of the guidance due\r\nto the expected interaction with land.\r\n\r\nA NOAA aircraft will be conducting a research mission in and around\r\nDanny this afternoon, and an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance\r\naircraft will investigate Danny Saturday afternoon.  These data\r\nwill provide a better assessment of the intensity and structure of\r\nthe hurricane.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 14.0N  48.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 14.5N  49.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 15.1N  51.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.5N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 16.0N  56.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 17.0N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 18.0N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 19.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Danny around\r\n1600-1730 UTC.  It found winds as high as 111 kt at the 12,000 ft\r\nflight level and surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency\r\nMicrowave Radiometer as high as 104 kt.  It also reported a\r\ndropsonde central pressure of 974 mb.  Based on these data, Danny\r\nreached a 100-kt intensity at that time.  Since then, the eye has\r\ndisappeared in satellite imagery, and the cyclone is showing signs\r\nof being affected by southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The\r\ninitial intensity is 100 kt for this advisory based on an expected\r\nlag between the decay of the cloud pattern and the cyclone's\r\nweakening.  That being said, this intensity could be generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 295/9.  The subtropical ridge north of\r\nDanny remains weaker than normal due to a deep-layer trough over the\r\nwestern Atlantic.  This trough is expected to lift northward during\r\nthe next couple of days, allowing the ridge to build westward and\r\nstrengthen.  This evolution should cause Danny to turn more\r\nwestward with some increase in forward speed.  The track guidance\r\nis in good agreement with this scenario and forecasts Danny to be\r\nnear the Leeward Islands in about 72 hours, near Puerto Rico and\r\nthe Virgin Islands in about 84-96 hours, and in the vicinity of\r\nHispaniola by day 5.  The new forecast track has a noise-level nudge\r\nto the north of the previous forecast and is in best agreement with\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF models.  It lies just south of the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nDanny has likely peaked in intensity based on the signs of shear in\r\nthe cloud pattern, stronger upper-level winds present west of the\r\ncyclone, and abundant nearby dry air.  Although it starts from a\r\nhigher initial intensity than the previous forecast, the new\r\nintensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken below hurricane\r\nstrength at about 48 hours.  After that, the system should continue\r\nto weaken as it moves near or over the Greater Antilles in close\r\nproximity to an upper-level trough.  The GFS/ECWMF/UKMET models\r\nall forecast Danny to degenerate to a tropical wave by 120 hours, so\r\nthe new intensity forecast compromises between this extreme and the\r\nSHIPS/LGEM models, which forecast a stronger cyclone at that time.\r\n\r\nNOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft will\r\ninvestigate Danny again Saturday afternoon.  These data will provide\r\na better assessment of the intensity and structure of the hurricane.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 14.5N  49.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 15.0N  50.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 15.5N  52.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 15.9N  55.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 16.3N  57.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 17.5N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 18.5N  67.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 19.5N  71.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015\r\n\r\nAfter reaching its peak intensity earlier today, Danny appears to\r\nbe starting a weakening trend.  There has been no eye in infrared\r\nsatellite imagery since about 1800 UTC, and a 2136 UTC WindSat pass\r\nshowed that a narrow swath of drier air had worked its way into\r\nthe inner core, eroding the southern eyewall.  The shear analysis\r\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin indicates that a little\r\nover 20 kt of southwesterly shear is now affecting Danny, and\r\ndropsonde data from a NOAA G-IV surveillance flight revealed that\r\nthere was some light inflow into the western part of the circulation\r\nbetween 300 and 400 mb.  Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB\r\nwere steady or decreased slightly from six hours ago; therefore,\r\nthe initial intensity is lowered slightly to 95 kt.\r\n\r\nVertical shear is expected to increase further during the next\r\ncouple of days, which should allow drier air in the surrounding\r\nenvironment to penetrate into Danny's circulation.  Therefore,\r\nthere is no change in the thinking that Danny should weaken as it\r\napproaches and moves across the Leeward Islands and the Greater\r\nAntilles during the forecast period.  The SHIPS diagnostics is\r\ncurrently showing only 10 kt of shear affecting Danny, and if the\r\nshear is actually higher as shown by the UW-CIMSS product, then the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM solutions probably keep Danny's intensity too high\r\nduring the next few days.  The global models continue to depict\r\nrapid weakening and show Danny degenerating into a surface trough in\r\n3-4 days.  As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast is close to\r\nthe IVCN intensity consensus and a little bit lower than the\r\nprevious forecast.  Danny is still expected to weaken to a tropical\r\nstorm before it reaches the Leeward Islands between 48-72 hours.\r\n\r\nDanny's initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt.\r\nThe hurricane is forecast to accelerate and turn westward during\r\nthe next few days while the subtropical ridge builds westward over\r\nthe southwestern Atlantic.  The bulk of the track guidance is\r\ntightly clustered for the entire forecast period, and no\r\nappreciable changes to the previous NHC track forecast were\r\nrequired on this advisory cycle.\r\n\r\nNOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft are\r\nscheduled to investigate Danny and the surrounding environment\r\nSaturday afternoon.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 14.8N  49.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 15.1N  51.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.6N  53.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 16.0N  56.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 16.4N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 17.6N  63.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 19.0N  68.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 20.0N  73.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015\r\n\r\nDanny's cloud pattern consists of a central dense overcast with the\r\nlow-level center estimated to be on the southwestern side of that\r\nfeature due to southwesterly shear.  Some fragmented curved bands\r\nexist on the north side of the circulation as well. The initial wind\r\nspeed is lowered to 85 kt, but this could be generous as it\r\nis slightly above the Dvorak CI-numbers.  NOAA and Air Force Reserve\r\nUnit reconnaissance aircraft are scheduled to investigate Danny this\r\nafternoon and should provide a better estimate of its intensity.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  A turn\r\nto the west with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin\r\nlater today when the subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone\r\nbuilds westward and strengthens.  This general motion is expected\r\nto persist for the next several days taking Danny across the\r\nLeeward Islands in 2 to 3 days, and near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola\r\nin 3 to 4 days.  The track model guidance remains in good\r\nagreement, and the only change made to the previous forecast was a\r\nslight northward adjustment at the latter forecast points.\r\n\r\nStrong southwesterly winds aloft and a stable air mass are expected\r\nto cause Danny to continue losing strength during the next several\r\ndays. In addition, the potential land interaction with the Greater\r\nAntilles could contribute to the weakening. Although the guidance\r\nagrees on the overall trend, there remains a significant discrepancy\r\nbetween the dynamical and statistical model solutions on the\r\nweakening rate. The GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF models show Danny weakening\r\nquickly and opening up into a trough over the eastern Caribbean.\r\nConversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show a slower decay.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is between these scenarios and is in best\r\nagreement with the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nBased on the current forecast, tropical storm watches will likely be\r\nrequired later today for portions of the Leeward Islands and the\r\nVirgin Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 15.2N  50.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 15.4N  52.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 15.8N  55.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 16.3N  57.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 16.8N  60.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 18.1N  64.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 19.7N  69.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 21.0N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 22 2015\r\n\r\nDanny's cloud pattern is similar to that of six hours ago, with a\r\ncentral dense overcast and some outer banding in the northeastern\r\nsemicircle.  However, the size of the overcast has diminished with\r\nthe center getting closer to the edge.  The initial intensity is\r\ndecreased to 80 kt based on decreasing satellite intensity\r\nestimates and continuity from the previous advisory.  However, this\r\ncould be generous.  NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance\r\naircraft are scheduled to investigate Danny this afternoon and\r\nshould provide a better estimate of its intensity.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 285/10.  There is no change in the\r\nforecast philosophy from the previous advisory, with Danny expected\r\nto turn westward and accelerate later today as the subtropical ridge\r\nto the north of the cyclone builds westward and strengthens.  This\r\ngeneral motion is expected to persist for the next several days\r\ntaking Danny across the Leeward Islands in about two days, and near\r\nPuerto Rico and Hispaniola in 3 to 4 days.  The track model\r\nguidance remains in good agreement with this, and the forecast\r\ntrack lies near the center of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nDanny is expected to move through a dry and stable air mass and\r\nencounter moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear for\r\nat least the next three days.  This should cause continued\r\nweakening, and the cyclone is forecast to be a tropical storm as it\r\nmoves over or near the northeastern Caribbean Islands.  The\r\nintensity forecast becomes lower confidence at days 4 and 5 due to\r\nthe uncertainty in how much land Danny will encounter, disagreements\r\nbetween the dynamical models over the forecast shear, and continued\r\ndivergence between the models forecasting Danny to dissipate and the\r\nmodels forecasting it to survive.  The latter part of the forecast\r\ncompromises between these extremes by showing a continued weakening\r\ntrend.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm watch is being issued for portions of the Leeward\r\nIslands at this time.  Additional watches or warning may be\r\nnecessary for this area, as well as the Virgin Islands and Puerto\r\nRico, later today or tonight.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 15.4N  52.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.7N  53.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 16.1N  56.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 16.6N  58.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 17.2N  61.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 18.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 20.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 22.0N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Danny","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft show that Danny continues to weaken.  The\r\naircraft have reported that the central pressure has risen to at\r\nleast 991 mb, along with maximum surface wind estimates near 65 kt\r\nfrom the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.  Based on these\r\ndata, the initial intensity is decreased to 65 kt.  The aircraft\r\ndata indicate that the center of Danny is tilted to the north or\r\nnortheast with height, as dropsondes released at the calm\r\nflight-level center have consistently reported 50-60 kt easterly\r\nsurface winds.  In addition, satellite imagery suggests that the\r\ncenter is now at the southwestern edge of the convection.  These\r\nobservations are likely due to ongoing southwesterly vertical wind\r\nshear.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 285/12, a little faster than before.\r\nThere is again little change in the forecast philosophy, with Danny\r\nexpected to turn westward tonight as the subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone builds westward and strengthens.  This general\r\nmotion is expected to persist for the next several days taking Danny\r\nacross the Leeward Islands in about two days, and near Puerto Rico\r\nand Hispaniola in 3 to 4 days.  This part of the forecast track is\r\nnear the center of the guidance envelope and is similar to, but a\r\nlittle faster than, the previous track.  The dynamical models are\r\nforecasting a mid- to upper-level trough to move into Florida and\r\nthe southeastern United States by 120 hours, and the track guidance\r\nresponds to this by showing a northwestward turn.  The new forecast\r\ntrack also shows a more northward motion at 120 hours, but it lies\r\nto the south and west of the center of the envelope.\r\n\r\nDanny is expected to move through a dry and stable air mass and\r\nencounter moderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear for\r\nat least the next three days.  This should cause continued\r\nweakening, and the cyclone is forecast to be a tropical storm as it\r\nmoves over or near the northeastern Caribbean Islands.  The\r\nintensity forecast becomes lower confidence at days 4 and 5.  The\r\ndynamical models forecast an upper-level low to form near central\r\nCuba.  However, they do not agree on how this will change the shear\r\nover Danny.  The GFS continues forecasting significant shear, while\r\nthe ECMWF forecasts more favorable upper-level winds.  It should be\r\nnoted that even with its more favorable shear forecast, the ECMWF\r\nforecasts Danny to weaken to a tropical wave.  Based on this and\r\nthe expectation that dry air will continue to impact the cyclone,\r\nthe intensity forecast calls for continued weakening at days 4-5.\r\n\r\nThere are no changes to the watches at this time.  However,\r\nadditional watches or warnings may be necessary for portions of the\r\nLeeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico tonight or\r\nSunday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 15.8N  53.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 16.1N  55.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 16.6N  57.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 17.1N  60.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 17.8N  62.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 19.5N  68.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 21.0N  72.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 23.0N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 22 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and data from an earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft mission indicate that Danny has continued to quickly\r\nweaken.  The center has become exposed to the southwest of the\r\nremaining deep convection due to moderate southwesterly shear and\r\ndry air.  The earlier SFMR data supported an intensity of 50 to 55\r\nkt around 0000 UTC, and since the organization of Danny has\r\ncontinued to decrease the advisory intensity has been lowered to\r\n50 kt.  The next NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve reconnaissance\r\nmissions into Danny are scheduled for 0800 and 1200 UTC,\r\nrespectively.\r\n\r\nDanny is expected to remain within a hostile environment consisting\r\nof dry mid-level air and moderate to strong southwesterly shear.\r\nThis should result in additional weakening.  Due to the fast rate of\r\nweakening Danny experienced today, the new NHC intensity forecast\r\nis significantly lower than the previous advisory, and is in best\r\nagreement with the HWRF and LGEM guidance.  The NHC forecast now\r\nshows Danny weakening to a tropical depression within a couple of\r\ndays and dissipating by day 5.  Both of these events could occur\r\nsooner.  In fact, the ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET all show Danny\r\ndegenerating into a trough of low pressure by the time it nears\r\nHispaniola in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nDanny appears to have turned westward as anticipated, with an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 275/13.  The overall track forecast\r\nphilosophy remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone\r\nshould continue on a general westward motion during the next 24 to\r\n36 hours.  After that time, Danny is forecast to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward to the south of a low-level ridge over the western\r\nAtlantic.  The dynamical models are in relatively good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, and the updated NHC track is similar to, but a little\r\nsouth of, the previous advisory primarily due to the more southward\r\ninitial position and current westward motion.\r\n\r\nSince Danny has rapidly weakened today and there is a reasonable\r\npossibility that it will be below tropical storm strength while\r\nmoving through the Leeward Islands, the governments of the various\r\nislands have elected to maintain tropical storm watches at this\r\ntime. Additional watches or warnings could still be required for\r\nportions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico\r\non Sunday if Danny does not weaken as quickly as forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 15.6N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 15.9N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 16.4N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 16.9N  61.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 17.7N  64.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 19.5N  69.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 21.7N  73.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown/Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicate that Danny has changed little since the previous advisory.\r\nAlthough the center is partly exposed on the southern edge of the\r\ndeep convection, satellite images and data from the NOAA Hurricane\r\nHunters and an earlier Gulfstream-IV synoptic mission indicate that\r\nDanny remains a well-defined and vertically deep system through at\r\nleast the 400-mb level.\r\n\r\nDanny is moving westward and has maintained its previous motion of\r\n275/13 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains basically unchanged\r\nfrom the previous advisory, but the new forecast track is heavily\r\ndependent on Danny remaining a tropical cyclone as it moves through\r\nthe Leeward Islands and the northeastern Caribbean Sea. The model\r\nguidance, especially the GFS and ECMWF, made a significant\r\nsouthward shift on the latest cycle due to those models weakening\r\nthe cyclone fairly quickly after 24 hours, with Danny becoming a\r\nvertically shallow remnant low that then moves westward within the\r\neasterly trade wind flow and into the Caribbean Sea by 36 hours.\r\nGiven that the 18-20 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nthat is currently affecting the cyclone is not expected to change\r\nduring the next 48 hours, Danny is forecast to be a tropical cyclone\r\nduring that time and and not weaken as much of the global models\r\nare suggesting. As a result, Danny is forecast remain north of the\r\nGFEX and TVCN model consensus model tracks, and begin to make a\r\nturn toward the west-northwest after 24 hours. The NHC track\r\nforecast was nudged a little south of the previous advisory track,\r\nmainly due to the slight southerly initial position.\r\n\r\nAs previously mentioned, the current environmental conditions that\r\nDanny is experiencing are forecast by the SHIPS intensity model to\r\ncontinue for the next 48 hours, which means that Danny should remain\r\na small and sheared tropical cyclone during that time. The official\r\nintensity forecast still calls for Danny to weaken to a tropical\r\ndepression in 36-48 hours as it passes near or south of the Virgin\r\nIslands and Puerto Rico. Danny is expected to become a remnant low\r\nin 72 hours and dissipate by 120 hours, but interaction with the\r\nland masses of Puerto Rico and/or Hispaniola could result in Danny\r\ndissipating sooner than forecast.\r\n\r\nAdditional watches or warnings could be required for the Virgin\r\nIslands and Puerto Rico later this morning if Danny does not weaken\r\nas quickly as forecast or if the forecast track is not shifted\r\nfarther south on subsequent advisories.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 15.8N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 16.0N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 16.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 17.1N  63.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 17.8N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 19.6N  70.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 21.3N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015\r\n\r\nDanny appears to be maintaining its intensity for now.  The\r\nlow-level center is estimated to be near the southwestern edge of\r\nthe main mass of deep convection, and considerable lightning\r\nactivity has recently been occurring near the center.  The current\r\nintensity estimate is held at 45 kt in agreement with the latest\r\nDvorak estimates and earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft data.  The\r\ncenter of the storm should pass very near, or over, the French data\r\nbuoy 41300 shortly, and this should provide additional information\r\nabout the intensity.  Southwesterly vertical shear of nearly 20 kt\r\nalong with dry mid-level air should continue to affect Danny over\r\nthe next couple of days.  Both the GFS and ECMWF global models\r\ncontinue to depict the system opening up into a wave within 48\r\nhours.  Given these unfavorable signs, the official forecast shows\r\nweakening as in the previous advisories.  However, because of the\r\nuncertainties in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, it is\r\nprudent to issue a tropical storm watch for Puerto Rico and the\r\nU.S. Virgin Islands at this time.\r\n\r\nDanny continues westward, or 275/13 kt.  A westward to west-\r\nnorthwestward track is expected over the next few days as the\r\ncyclone moves on the southern side of a low- to mid-level ridge.\r\nThe track model guidance has shifted a little south on this cycle,\r\nand so has the official forecast.  This is close to the latest\r\ndynamical model consensus.  If Danny weakens faster than expected,\r\nit could move even farther south of this track.\r\n\r\nThe system could bring much-needed rainfall to Puerto Rico over the\r\nnext few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 15.8N  57.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 16.0N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 16.5N  61.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 17.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 17.5N  67.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 19.2N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 21.0N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015\r\n\r\nDanny has become decidedly less organized since earlier today.  The\r\nlow-level circulation center became exposed to the southwest of the\r\nmain area of deep convection, and that deep convection has become\r\nrather ragged-looking.  The current intensity estimate is set\r\nto 35 kt based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB.\r\nThis is also consistent with recent data buoy observations.  Danny\r\nshould remain in an environment of moderately strong shear and dry\r\nmid-tropospheric air for the next few days.  These unfavorable\r\nfactors should cause weakening to a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours,\r\nand dissipation thereafter.  If the global models are correct,\r\nhowever, Danny could dissipate sooner than shown here.\r\n\r\nDanny continues to move a little south of the previously estimated\r\ntrack, and the initial motion estimate is 260/14.  This is likely\r\ndue to the fact that it is becoming a shallow circulation.  A low-\r\nto mid-level ridge to the north of Danny should provide a continued\r\nwestward or a little north of westward motion for the next 72 hours\r\nor so.  The track models have shifted even a little farther to the\r\nsouth on this cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted\r\naccordingly.  This is close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough tropical storm watches or warnings are not in effect for\r\nGuadeloupe, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy, the government of France\r\nhas issued a warning for heavy rain and strong winds for those\r\nislands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 15.6N  59.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 15.8N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 16.2N  63.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 16.6N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 17.2N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 18.6N  73.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 23 2015\r\n\r\nDanny remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  The low-level center is\r\nexposed well to the southwest of a small of area of deep convection\r\nthat has formed within the past couple of hours.  An Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft that investigated Danny this\r\nevening measured tropical-storm-force winds on the SFMR over a\r\nsmall area close to the convection.  Based on these data, Danny\r\nremains a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory.  The environment\r\nahead of Danny is expected to remain unfavorable.  Moderate\r\nsouthwesterly shear and dry mid-tropospheric air should cause\r\nweakening, and Danny is forecast to become a tropical depression\r\non Monday, and degenerate into a remnant low or dissipate in a\r\ncouple of days.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone is moving westward or 270/13 kt. The track\r\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged as Danny is expected to move\r\nwestward to west-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level\r\nridge over the western Atlantic.  The new NHC track forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous advisory and lies along the\r\nsouthern edge of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nSince the chance of tropical-storm-force winds has decreased in\r\nPuerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, the tropical storm watch\r\nfor those areas has been discontinued.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 15.6N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 15.9N  61.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 16.3N  64.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 16.8N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 17.5N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danny","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015\r\n\r\nReports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Danny\r\nthis morning indicate that Danny still has winds that support\r\nkeeping the cyclone as a tropical storm. However, due to a strong\r\nburst of deep convection containing tops of -80 deg C and intense\r\nlightning activity that has developed near the alleged center, the\r\naircraft has been unable to provide an exact center fix. This\r\navoidance is for aircrew and aircraft safety reasons. However,\r\nsatellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB also\r\nsupport keeping Danny as a tropical storm.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a slower 275/08 kt. UW-CIMSS shear\r\nanalyses indicate that Danny is now encountering west-northwesterly\r\nmid-level shear of around 5 kt, which could explain the slow down\r\nin forward speed since the previous advisory. That being said,\r\nthere is no significant change to the previous track forecast or\r\nreasoning. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is\r\nexpected to remain strong for the next few days, which should force\r\nDanny on a westward to west-northwestward track until the system\r\ndissipates in about 72 hours. The official track forecast is\r\nbasically just an update and extension of the previous advisory,\r\nand lies close to the GFEX and TVCN consensus models.\r\n\r\nDanny is expected to remain a sheared tropical cyclone or low\r\nuntil dissipation occurs. In the short term, however, there could be\r\nsome minor fluctuations in intensity today as the deep-layer\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear decreases some before increasing\r\nagain and becoming stronger by Tuesday morning. Mid-level dry air\r\nwith humidity values decreasing to less than 40 percent should also\r\nenhance the weakening process. As result, Danny is expected to\r\nbecome a tropical depression by this evening, degenerate into a\r\nremnant low on Tuesday, and dissipate by Wednesday. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the ICON\r\nintensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 15.8N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 16.1N  62.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 16.5N  65.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 17.0N  67.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 17.4N  71.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Danny","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015\r\n\r\nAlthough an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a few light\r\nwesterly winds, they were neither strong nor extensive enough to\r\nsupport the existence of a well-defined circulation.  In addition,\r\nsurface synoptic data from the Lesser Antilles suggest that the\r\nsystem has degenerated into a trough.  The system also lacks\r\nsufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical\r\ncyclone.  Therefore, this is the last advisory on Danny.\r\n\r\nThe remnants of Danny should continue to move westward over the\r\nnortheastern Caribbean, and global model guidance show the system\r\nlosing its identity within 48 hours or less.\r\n\r\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\r\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 16.0N  62.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery, buoy observations, and a very recent ASCAT pass\r\nsuggest that the circulation associated with the area of low\r\npressure over the tropical Atlantic has become better defined.\r\nDeep convection also became better organized during the afternoon\r\nand has persisted in a band over the southeastern portion of the\r\ncirculation this evening.  The NOAA buoy reported peak south-\r\nsouthwesterly winds of 39 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1004 mb.\r\nBased on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 40-kt\r\ntropical storm.  Erika becomes the 5th tropical storm of the 2015\r\nAtlantic hurricane season.\r\n\r\nDuring the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through an\r\nenvironment characterized by warm water, a moist air mass, and\r\ngenerally low vertical wind shear.  These factors should allow\r\nstrengthening.  After 48 hours, Erika will be approaching an\r\nupper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, which\r\nis expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast calls for steady intensification during the\r\nnext 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensity\r\nconsensus.  After that time, the intensity guidance diverges with\r\nthe statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricane\r\nstrength.  Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS weaken the system in about\r\n3 days, due to the increasing shear. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nbetween these scenarios and shows no change in strength after 48\r\nhours.  Due to the large spread in the intensity guidance, the\r\nintensity forecast at days 3-5 is of low confidence.\r\n\r\nErika is moving quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic or\r\n275/17 kt.  The tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward to\r\nwest-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over the\r\ncentral Atlantic during the next few days.  The forward speed of\r\nErika should gradually decrease as the cyclone nears the western\r\nportion of the ridge.  The track guidance is tightly clustered\r\nthrough 72 hours, with more spread after that time.  The\r\nbifurcation appears to be the result of the future strength of\r\nErika.  The models that have a deeper depiction of the cyclone show\r\nmore of a northwestward turn late in the period, while the models\r\nthat weaken Erika indicate a more westward motion.  The NHC forecast\r\nis close to the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean, which is south of the\r\nconsensus but not as far south as the GFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 14.4N  47.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 14.9N  50.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 15.8N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 16.5N  56.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.1N  59.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 18.5N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 22.0N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Erika has not changed much overnight, with the\r\nconvection located near the center and in the southern semicircle.\r\nThe latest Dvorak estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and\r\nthe initial intensity remains 40 kt based on the earlier buoy data.\r\n\r\nErika will be moving over warming SSTs with light to moderate shear\r\nfor the next 36 to 48 hours, and the NHC forecast shows steady\r\nintensification during this time. After that, Erika could encounter\r\nincreasing westerly shear due to interaction with an upper-level low\r\nnear Hispaniola and there is the potential for land interaction with\r\nthe Greater Antilles. The HWRF and LGEM models show more\r\nstrengthening during this time, while the GFDL and SHIPS models are\r\nless aggressive. There is also disagreement among the global models.\r\nThe GFS weakens Erika to a trough by 5 days while the ECMWF has\r\ntrended stronger and the UKMET continues to show a more robust\r\ncyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward a bit\r\nat days 4 and 5 and is close to or a bit below the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus. Due to the large spread in the guidance, the intensity\r\nforecast at days 3-5 is of even lower confidence than usual.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate of 275/17 is based largely on\r\ncontinuity, given the difficulty locating the center with infrared\r\nimagery. The track guidance is in good agreement through 36 hours,\r\nas Erika should be steered westward to west-northwestward south of\r\nthe subtropical ridge. At 48 hours and beyond, there are two\r\ndistinct camps of track guidance. The UKMET, HWRF, and GFDL\r\nshow a deeper system that moves northwestward, while the GFS, ECMWF,\r\nand GEFS ensemble mean show a weaker cyclone and a more west-\r\nnorthwestward motion. The NHC forecast has been nudged a bit\r\nto the right this cycle and remains close to the ECMWF and GEFS\r\nensemble mean. This track is to the right of the GFS but well left\r\nof the TVCA multi-model consensus. Given the divergence in the\r\nguidance, confidence in the track forecast late in the period is\r\nlow.\r\n\r\nBased on the new forecast, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued\r\nfor portions of the Lesser Antilles.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 14.6N  49.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 15.2N  51.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 16.0N  54.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 16.9N  57.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 17.6N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 19.3N  66.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 21.5N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 24.0N  75.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the system has deteriorated this morning, and\r\ndeep convection is rather limited at this time.  Microwave and\r\nhigh-resolution visible imagery indicates that the center is to the\r\nnorth of the main area of deep convection, and the current intensity\r\nis maintained at 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT overpass.  The Air\r\nForce Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Erika later\r\ntoday and should provide a good estimate of the strength of\r\nthe system.  The dynamical guidance indicates that the future\r\nenvironment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by\r\nmarginal humidity and around 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear.  This\r\nshould allow for only slow strengthening at best.  The official\r\nforecast is similar to the HWRF guidance during the first half of\r\nthe forecast period, and close to the model consensus near the end\r\nof the period.  Given the current state of the system and the\r\npossibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual\r\nconfidence in the NHC intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is just north of west or 280/17 kt.  The track\r\nforecast reasoning is similar to that from the previous advisory\r\npackage.  Over the next couple of days, Erika should be steered\r\nwest-northwestward on the southern side of a subtropical ridge.\r\nLater in the forecast period, the track models diverge with the\r\nHWRF and U.K. Met. office models taking the system more to the\r\nnorth and east of the consensus and the ECMWF and GFS farther west.\r\nThe official forecast leans toward the latter guidance and is left\r\nof the multi-model consensus.  Given the significant spread in the\r\nguidance in 3 to 5 days, confidence in the track forecast late in\r\nthe period is low.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 15.2N  51.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 15.8N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 16.6N  56.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 17.4N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 18.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 20.0N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 24.5N  75.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nAfter becoming quite disorganized in appearance earlier today,\r\nErika has made a bit of a comeback with increased deep convection\r\nnear and to the south of the center.  Data from the Air Force\r\nHurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity is near 35 kt and\r\nthis is consistent with Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.\r\nErika has limited upper-level outflow over the northern semicircle\r\nof the circulation, and microwave data suggest that the cyclone has\r\nbeen ingesting some dry mid-level air.  As in the previous\r\nforecast, there is considerable uncertainty as to the future\r\nintensity of this tropical cyclone.  The SHIPS guidance indicates\r\nincreasing west-northwesterly shear over the next few days, and the\r\nGFS and ECMWF global models do not strengthen the system during the\r\nforecast period.  The HWRF and GFDL models do show strengthening,\r\nhowever, but along a track to the right of most of the guidance.\r\nThe official intensity forecast has been reduced a bit from the\r\nprevious one and is close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nA center fix from the aircraft indicates that the motion continues\r\nto be near 280/17.  A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nErika should steer the system on a west-northwestward track for the\r\nnext several days.  Late in the forecast period, there is\r\nsignificant spread in the models, with those models that depict a\r\nweaker system being farther south and west and those having a\r\nstronger cyclone farther to the north and east.  The official track\r\nforecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one\r\nand is in line with the latest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nSome of the tropical storm watches for the islands of the\r\nnortheastern Caribbean may need to be changed to warnings on the\r\nnext advisory package.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.6N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 16.1N  55.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 16.7N  58.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 17.4N  61.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 18.2N  64.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 20.3N  69.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 22.5N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 25.0N  78.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nBoth NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunter planes investigated Erika\r\nand found a disorganized storm. The central pressure rose to 1006\r\nmb, and the strongest winds were confined to the eastern semicircle.\r\nThe low-level center remains exposed to the north of the limited\r\nthunderstorm activity. Based on the current appearance on satellite\r\nimagery, and data from the plane, the initial intensity is\r\ngenerously kept at 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast continues to be highly uncertain. Erika\r\nhas a large cyclonic envelope, and this is a favorable factor\r\nfor the cyclone to strengthen. However, SHIPS model forecasts\r\na hostile west-northwesterly shear over the cyclone and, in fact, it\r\nonly strengthens Erika a little bit at the end of the forecast\r\nperiod. This coincides with the solution of the GFS and the ECMWF\r\nglobal models which either weaken the cyclone or show little\r\nchange in strength. The NHC forecast follows the intensity\r\nconsensus, and shows a modest strengthening beyond 3 days. By then,\r\nthe cyclone is expected to be near the Bahamas where the environment\r\ncould be a little more favorable for intensification. However, I\r\nwill not be a surprised if Erika dissipates like Danny in the\r\nthe northeastern Caribbean Sea where the environment is hostile.\r\n\r\nErika is embedded within the easterly flow south of a moderate\r\nsubtropical ridge which is covering the western Atlantic. This\r\npattern will likely continue to steer Erika between the west and\r\nwest-northwest at about 15 kt for the next 2 to 3 days. As the\r\ncyclone reaches the western edge of the ridge in the area of the\r\nBahamas, the cyclone is then expected to decrease in forward speed.\r\nThe NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows\r\nvery closely the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nTropical storm watches and warnings have been adjusted and added for\r\nsome of the islands of the northeastern Caribbean by the respective\r\nMeteorological Services.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.0N  54.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 16.4N  56.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 17.0N  60.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 17.8N  63.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 18.8N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 21.0N  70.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 23.0N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 26.0N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nConvection has increased near and to the east of the estimated\r\ncenter position of Erika during the past few hours. Subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak estimates remain T2.5/35 kt, and that is the\r\nintensity for this advisory. The central pressure of 1003 mb is\r\nbased on a dropsonde from a NOAA aircraft that reported 1004 mb and\r\n25 kt of wind south of the apparent surface center.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast remains very uncertain. Despite the recent\r\nimprovement in the convective pattern, the statistical guidance\r\nshows only very gradual strengthening during the forecast period\r\ndue to 15 to 25 kt of westerly to northwesterly shear. Another\r\nmajor negative factor in the SHIPS model is the weakening of the\r\nvortex in the GFS forecast. The HWRF is also very slow to\r\nstrengthen Erika in the short term, but continues to show\r\nintensification late in the period. The latest ECMWF run shows a\r\nmore robust cyclone in its latest forecast, while the GFS, as\r\nmentioned above, weakens the vortex to a wave in 2 to 3 days. Given\r\nthis uncertainty, the NHC forecast remains close to the intensity\r\nconsensus and shows very slow intensification in the first 2\r\nto 3 days followed by steadier strengthening at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/16. Erika will be steered\r\nwestward to west-northwestward over the next 2 to 3 days by the\r\nAtlantic subtropical ridge to the north, and the track model\r\nguidance is in good agreement on this scenario. After that time,\r\nthe track model guidance shows increasing spread with a lack of run\r\nto run consistency. For example, the latest run of the GFS takes a\r\nmuch weaker Erika west-northwestward while the new ECMWF run is\r\nstronger with Erika with a track farther to the right. Overall, the\r\ntrack guidance envelop has shifted a little to the left this cycle,\r\nwith the majority of the aids showing a west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion as the cyclone nears the western edge of the\r\nridge by day 5. The NHC forecast follows this trend and is close to\r\nthe HWRF and a little to the right of the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble\r\nmean at days 3 through 5. This track is left of the TVCA consensus,\r\nwhich has been pulled to the right by the outlier GFDL model this\r\ncycle. Given the uncertainty, this is a good time to remind users\r\nthat average NHC track forecast errors over the past 5 years are 180\r\nmiles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.\r\n\r\nNew tropical storm warnings have been issued for Puerto Rico, the\r\nVirgin Islands, and several other islands in the northeastern\r\nCaribbean by their respective Meteorological Services.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 16.1N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 16.5N  58.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 17.2N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 18.1N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 19.2N  67.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 21.4N  72.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 24.0N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 26.0N  79.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Erika has increased during the past\r\n24 hours, but the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has\r\nnot changed very much.  Reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that\r\nthe center is located near the northwestern edge of the thunderstorm\r\nactivity due to moderate northwesterly shear.  The aircraft has\r\nmeasured believable SFMR winds of around 40 kt this morning, and\r\nthe initial intensity is set at that value.\r\n\r\nErika is forecast to pass through an environment of moderate to\r\nstrong westerly vertical wind shear during the next two to three\r\ndays.  The shear will be caused by an upper-level low that is\r\nexpected to remain near eastern Cuba through Friday.  The upper low\r\nis forecast to weaken on Saturday, which should produce a more\r\nconducive upper-level wind pattern over the Bahamas. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast calls for little change in strength through 72\r\nhours, which is in line with the latest statistical guidance.  After\r\nthat time, strengthening is indicated due to the expected more\r\nfavorable upper-level environment.  The official forecast lies\r\nbetween the more robust HWRF/GFDL and lower statistical guidance.\r\nAn alternative forecast scenario, supported by the GFS model, is\r\nthat Erika weakens to a tropical wave due to the shear and\r\ninteraction with the Greater Antilles.  The amount of strengthening\r\non days 4-5 will be dependent in part on how Erika responds to the\r\nthe preceding unfavorable shear.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/15 kt.  Erika is expected to\r\nmove westward to west-northwestward during the next several days\r\nto the south of a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic.\r\nThe track guidance is in good agreement through much of the forecast\r\nperiod, with the exception of the GFDL model that takes a stronger\r\nstorm northwestward much sooner.  The new NHC track is essentially\r\nan update of the previous advisory and is close to a consensus of\r\nthe ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET.  This is also in good agreement\r\nwith the Florida State Superensemble.  One should remember to not\r\nfocus on the exact forecast track, especially at the long range\r\nwhere the average NHC track errors during the past 5 years are about\r\n180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles at day 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 16.1N  57.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 16.7N  59.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 17.6N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 18.7N  65.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 19.8N  68.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 22.0N  73.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 24.4N  77.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 26.5N  80.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the tropical storm has become less\r\norganized since the previous advisory, with the low-level center\r\nbecoming exposed to the northwest of the thunderstorm activity.\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Erika this afternoon\r\nhas not found flight-level or SFMR winds as strong as reported this\r\nmorning, but the aircraft did not sample much of the eastern portion\r\nof the circulation.  The initial intensity is held at 40 kt, but\r\nthis could be generous.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this\r\nmorning.  Erika is forecast to move through an area of moderate to\r\nstrong westerly shear during the next two to three days. Although\r\nthe NHC intensity forecast during that time shows no change in\r\nintensity, weakening is possible during the next couple of days.  In\r\nfact, Erika could degenerate into a trough of low pressure due to\r\nthe shear and interaction with the Greater Antilles.  After 72\r\nhours, the upper-level environment is forecast to become more\r\nconducive for development and all of the guidance, including the\r\nglobal models, shows intensification. Therefore, the days 4 and 5\r\nintensity forecast again calls for strengthening, but is below the\r\nintensity consensus and near the SHIPS model.  The official forecast\r\nleans toward the lower side of the guidance to reflect the\r\npossibility that the cyclone's structure would be too disrupted to\r\nfully take advantage of the more conducive environment late in the\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 280/15 kt.  Erika is forecast to move\r\nwest-northwestward during the next three to four days to the south\r\nof a subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic.  After that time,\r\nthe global models show a weakness in the ridge developing over the\r\nfar western Atlantic, which should cause Erika to turn\r\nnorthwestward.  All of the models have shifted eastward at days\r\nfour and five, but the normally reliable GFS and ECMWF define\r\nthe western edge of the guidance.  Out of respect of\r\nthese models and the previous NHC forecast, the updated track\r\nhas only been moved slightly eastward late in the period.  As a\r\nresult, the new forecast lies west of the multi-model consensus at\r\n96 and 120 h. One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast\r\ntrack, especially at the long range where the average NHC track\r\nerrors during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240\r\nmiles at day 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.6N  58.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 17.1N  61.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 18.1N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 19.2N  66.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 20.5N  69.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 22.7N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 25.0N  77.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z 27.5N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nErika is a very disorganized tropical storm. Although convection\r\nhas increased and is a little closer to the center tonight, data\r\nfrom both NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that\r\nthe surface pressure is not falling, and the maximum winds remain\r\nabout 40 kt. These winds are confined to squalls to the north and\r\neast of the center.\r\n\r\nErika will be moving through a hostile wind shear environment as\r\npredicted by global models and the SHIPS guidance. On this\r\nbasis, the NHC forecast weakens Erika to a 35-kt tropical storm\r\nand keeps that intensity for the next 48 hours. Erika, however,\r\ncould even degenerate into a trough during the next day or so. If\r\nErika survives the next 3 days and reaches the Bahamas, the\r\nenvironment is expected to become quite favorable. In fact, global\r\nmodels and the HWRF/GFDL pair forecast Erika to become a hurricane\r\nby the end of the forecast period. The NHC forecast is a little\r\nbelow the intensity consensus to reflect the possibility that the\r\ncyclone could dissipate before it reaches the Bahamas, and then it\r\nwill be too late to take advantage of the more conducive environment\r\nthere.\r\n\r\nFixes from the reconnaissance planes indicate that Erika is moving\r\ntoward the west or 280 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is embedded\r\nwithin well-established steering currents south of the Atlantic\r\nsubtropical ridge. This persistent pattern will likely keep the\r\ncyclone or its remnants, in case it weakens, on a west to\r\nwest-northwest motion for the next 3 days. After that time, the\r\nsystem will be in between the southwestern edge of the subtropical\r\nridge and a mid-level trough, which is forecast to be nearly\r\nstationary along the east-central portion of the United States.\r\nThis will force the cyclone to turn more to the northwest or even\r\nnorthward. Guidance shifted farther east tonight, and consequently,\r\nthe NHC track forecast was adjusted slightly eastward, and it is\r\nvery close to the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS models.\r\n\r\nOne should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track,\r\nespecially at the long range where the average NHC track errors\r\nduring the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240\r\nmiles at day 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 16.7N  60.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 17.4N  62.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 18.6N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 20.0N  67.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 21.2N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 23.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 26.0N  78.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 28.5N  79.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nData from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika has\r\nstrengthened overnight, although it is not clear as to how much. The\r\ncentral pressure dropped to around 1001 mb around 0540Z, but was\r\nup to 1003 mb on the next fix about an hour later. The highest\r\n850-mb flight-level winds sampled by the aircraft were 48 kt, which\r\nwould correspond to an intensity of around 40 kt. However, the\r\naircraft found SFMR winds of 45 to 55 kt near the center. Based on a\r\nblend of these data, the initial intensity has been conservatively\r\nraised to 45 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft will be investigating Erika again later this morning.\r\n\r\nAircraft data and satellite imagery show that Erika is still a\r\nsheared tropical cyclone, with the deepest convection found east and\r\nsoutheast of the center due to about 20 kt of westerly shear. The\r\nmodels show the environment remaining unfavorable for significant\r\nstrengthening in the first 48 hours, with shear associated with an\r\nupper-level trough west of Erika expected to increase to 25 to 30\r\nkt. Given this, most of the intensity guidance shows little change\r\nduring the first couple of days and so does the NHC forecast. After\r\nthat time, the upper trough weakens and Erika should encounter a\r\nmore favorable upper-level pattern and warmer SSTs, which should\r\nsupport intensification assuming that the cyclone survives the next\r\n48 hours. The HWRF and GFDL are much stronger than the statistical\r\nmodels this cycle, but the GFS and ECMWF now keep Erika weaker than\r\nthey did previously. The NHC forecast has been adjusted upward\r\nslightly late in the period, but is well below the intensity\r\nconsensus given the large uncertainty and spread in the guidance.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes and radar data from Guadeloupe were helpful in\r\nfinding the low-level center and determining an initial motion of\r\n280/14. The steering flow from the subtropical ridge to the north\r\nshould result in a west-northwestward heading for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays. After that time, the spread in the guidance increases as the\r\ncyclone moves between the southwestern edge of the ridge and a\r\nmid/upper-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and Gulf of\r\nMexico. The models are in poor agreement on the eventual structure\r\nand track of Erika late in the period. The ECMWF is weaker this\r\ncycle and is on the left side of the dynamical model envelope. The\r\nGFS, HWRF, and UKMET are all farther east but have trended west\r\nthis cycle. Given the large spread and the continued run-to-run\r\nvariability, little change was made to the NHC track forecast. The\r\nnew NHC forecast is closest to the latest GFS model prediction at\r\nday 3 and beyond.\r\n\r\nOne should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track,\r\nespecially at the long range where the average NHC track errors\r\nduring the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240 miles\r\nat day 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 16.8N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 17.6N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 19.0N  66.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 20.3N  69.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 21.5N  71.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 24.0N  76.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 26.5N  78.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 29.0N  79.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nErika is not well organized at this time.  Although deep convection\r\nincreased overnight and early today during the diurnal maximum,\r\nwith considerable lightning activity, banding features were\r\nlacking.  The convection is also not well organized on the\r\nGuadeloupe radar imagery.  Recent high-resolution visible imagery\r\nshows the low-level center becoming exposed, again, to the\r\nnorthwest of the main area of thunderstorms.  Data from the aircraft\r\ndo not indicate any strengthening, and the initial intensity is kept\r\nat 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe latest aircraft fixes show that the center has apparently\r\nreformed farther to the south of previous estimates.  With some\r\nadjustments to the previous location, the initial motion estimate is\r\nkept at 270/14.  For the next few days, Erika should move\r\nwest-northwestward to the south of a mid-level subtropical ridge.\r\nLater in the forecast period, as the tropical cyclone nears the\r\nwestern periphery of the ridge, a turn to the northwest and\r\nnorth-northwest should occur.  However there is uncertainty as to\r\nhow soon and how sharp this turn will take place.  The future track\r\nof Erika is also dependent on its intensity, with a weaker system\r\nlikely to move more to the west and a stronger cyclone more to the\r\neast.  There is substantial spread in the track models at days 3 to\r\n5, partially due to differences in model-predicted intensity.  The\r\nofficial track forecast has been shifted to the left of the previous\r\none mainly due to the adjustment in the current center position.\r\nThis is close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nAs expected, Erika is being disrupted by an unfavorable atmospheric\r\nenvironment, and this disruption is expected to continue for the\r\nnext couple of days.  No significant strengthening is expected until\r\nlater in the forecast period.  In addition, with the reformation of\r\nthe center to the south of the previous track, the likelihood of\r\ninteraction with the land mass of Hispaniola has increased.  This\r\nhas implications for Hispaniola, of course, but also for the track\r\nand intensity of Erika after that. In short, potential impacts for\r\nthe Bahamas and beyond are unusually uncertain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 16.4N  63.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 17.5N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 18.8N  67.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 20.0N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 21.4N  73.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 23.9N  77.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 26.5N  79.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 28.5N  80.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nThe center has been wobbling during the day, but the mean\r\nmotion is estimated to be 285/13.  In the mean, a west-northwestward\r\ntrack to the south of a subtropical ridge is likely to continue\r\nfor the next couple of days.  Later in the forecast period, the\r\ncyclone should turn to the right along the southwestern and western\r\nperiphery of the ridge.  There remains considerable spread in the\r\ntrack model guidance at days 3 to 5, partly due to differences in\r\nmodel-predicted intensities at those time frames.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model\r\nconsensus.  The NOAA Gulfstream-IV is currently conducting a\r\nsynoptic surveillance mission around Erika to provide the numerical\r\nmodels with a better depiction of the storm's environment.  These\r\ndata will be reflected primarily in the 00Z run of the GFS.\r\n\r\nVertical shear is expected to be fairly strong for the next couple\r\nof days and that, along with the interaction with land, should\r\npreclude significant strengthening for the next 48 hours or so.\r\nBeyond that time, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, and\r\nthis could allow for intensification assuming that the cyclone is\r\nnot too disrupted by the mountainous land mass of Hispaniola.\r\nBecause of the marginal upper-level wind environment and potential\r\ninteraction with land over the next few days, there is unusually\r\nhigh uncertainty in the forecast intensity, especially at days 3 to\r\n5.\r\n\r\nThe biggest short-term threat posed by Erika is very heavy rainfall\r\nover portions of the Leeward Islands, which should spread over the\r\nVirgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and early Friday.  These\r\nrains could produce flash floods and mud slides.  More than 12\r\ninches of rain has fallen in Dominica, with reports of fatalities\r\nin that island.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 16.6N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 17.9N  66.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 19.2N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 20.7N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 22.1N  74.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 24.9N  78.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 27.0N  80.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 29.5N  80.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of Erika is not easy to locate tonight, and it\r\nappears that a few smaller swirls are rotating within a larger\r\ngyre. In fact, one of these small swirls moved near St. Croix\r\nproducing tropical storm force wind gusts during the past few\r\nhours on the island. Due to the lack of an inner core, the initial\r\nposition is based on a mean center of circulation. Despite the poor\r\norganization, the reconnaissance plane currently in Erika was able\r\nto measure 700 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt well to the southeast\r\nof the alleged center. Based on the SFMR, these winds are not at the\r\nsurface, and the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt. The central\r\npressure is not falling, which is another indication that Erika is\r\nnot strengthening. The NHC forecast calls for no change in intensity\r\nduring the next 36 hours, given the fact that cyclone will be\r\nmoving through a very hostile shear environment, and will also feel\r\nthe effects of land. Once in the Bahamas, however, the upper-level\r\nflow is expected to become more favorable, and if Erika survives, it\r\nhas the opportunity to strengthen some. The NHC forecast is very\r\nclose to the intensity consensus and is similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 270\r\ndegrees at 15 kt, and this estimate is highly uncertain. Erika\r\nshould begin to turn toward the west-northwest during the next\r\nseveral hours around the periphery of the western Atlantic\r\nsubtropical ridge, and should reach the Central Bahamas between 36\r\nand 48 hours. By then, the cyclone will be located on the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the ridge, and should begin to turn to the\r\nnorthwest with decreasing forward speed. Most of the track\r\nguidance, including the ECMWF and the GFS global models, show a\r\ntropical cyclone approaching southeast Florida in about 3 days and\r\nmoving northward near or over the east coast of Florida during the\r\nlatter portion of the forecast period.  There is unusually high\r\nuncertainty in this forecast, especially at days 3 to 5, given that\r\nthe cyclone has to recover from shear and from the effects of\r\nland for this to occur.\r\n\r\nThe greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be\r\nvery heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Leeward Islands\r\ntonight, and over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday.\r\nThese rains could produce flash floods and mud slides.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 16.6N  65.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 18.2N  67.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 19.7N  70.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 21.1N  73.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 22.5N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 25.2N  79.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 27.3N  80.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 29.5N  80.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nErika remains disorganized, with the deep convection decreasing in\r\ncoverage and intensity to the east of the estimated center position\r\nduring the past few hours. Despite this, the cyclone continues to\r\nproduce a large area of tropical storm force winds east of the\r\ncenter, and the initial intensity of 45 kt and central pressure of\r\n1006 mb are based on recent surface observations from Puerto Rico.\r\n\r\nThe center of Erika continues to be rather disorganized, and the\r\ninitial position and motion of 290/15 are based on a blend of\r\nsatellite imagery and continuity. While the overall track forecast\r\nreasoning has not changed, the initial position and motion and\r\nan overall weaker depiction of Erika in the global models have\r\nresulted in a leftward shift in the track guidance this cycle and\r\nan increase in the forward speed. A west-northwestward motion is\r\nexpected for the first couple of days as Erika moves around the\r\nsouthern periphery of the subtropical ridge to the north. After that\r\ntime, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward\r\nspeed are forecast as Erika moves around the western edge of the\r\nridge. The new NHC track is to the left of and faster than the\r\nprevious advisory and is near the multi model consensus through 36\r\nhours. After that time, the NHC track is east of almost all the\r\nguidance out of respect to continuity. Needless to say, confidence\r\nin the track forecast, especially after 48 hours, remains very low\r\ngiven that the details of the track depend on how much the cyclone\r\nrecovers from the shear and the effects of land interaction in the\r\nshort term.\r\n\r\nStrong shear is expected to continue or even increase during the\r\nnext day or so. The combination of the shear and interaction with\r\nHispaniola suggests that Erika is likely to weaken and could even\r\ndissipate in the next 12 to 24 hours. Assuming that the cyclone\r\nsurvives, there is an opportunity for some intensification on days\r\n2 and 3 of the forecast period as the shear decreases, and that is\r\nreflected in the NHC forecast. After that time, since the NHC track\r\nnow takes Erika inland over the Florida peninsula, weakening is\r\nshown at days 4 and 5. Much of the guidance has trended weaker this\r\ncycle, and the NHC intensity forecast is close to the HWRF and the\r\nIVCN consensus. Confidence in the intensity forecast remains very\r\nlow.\r\n\r\nThe greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be\r\nvery heavy rainfall over portions of the the Virgin Islands, Puerto\r\nRico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti today. These rains could\r\nproduce flash floods and mud slides.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 17.7N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 18.8N  69.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 20.5N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 23.2N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 25.6N  80.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 27.7N  81.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  02/0600Z 30.0N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nMorning visible imagery shows that the broad low-level center of\r\nErika is exposed to the west of the main convective area due to the\r\neffects of 20-25 kt of westerly vertical wind shear.  An Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported a large area of\r\n40-45 kt surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency\r\nMicrowave Radiometer and 850 mb flight-level winds as high as 55 kt,\r\nso the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  The central pressure based\r\non the aircraft reports is 1008 mb.\r\n\r\nNow that the center is somewhat easier to locate, the initial motion\r\nis a somewhat more confident 285/16.  A generally west-northwestward\r\nmotion is expected for the next 48 hours or so as Erika moves around\r\nthe southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge. After that\r\ntime, a northwestward and northward turn and a decrease in forward\r\nspeed are forecast as Erika moves between the ridge and a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  The track guidance\r\ncontinues to show some spread based on the forecast strength of\r\nErika.  The models with a stronger cyclone, such as the GFDL and\r\nGFS, show a faster northward turn and are on the eastern side of the\r\nguidance envelope.  On the other hand, the ECMWF forecasts a weaker\r\nstorm and lies on the left side of the envelope.  An extra\r\ncomplication is that passage over Hispaniola is likely to disrupt\r\nthe circulation, with the possibility that the center could reform\r\nsomewhere northwest or west of the island.  Overall, the guidance\r\nenvelope has shifted a little to the west since the previous\r\nadvisory, and the new forecast track shows a similar nudge through\r\n96 hours.  The guidance is also showing a faster forward speed than\r\nsix hours ago, so the new track is also a little faster than the\r\nprevious track.\r\n\r\nWesterly to southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to\r\ncontinue or increase during the next 12 to 24 hours.  This,\r\ncombined with land interaction, suggests that the cyclone should\r\nweaken, and there is a chance the system could degenerate to a\r\ntropical wave while crossing Hispaniola.  Assuming the cyclone\r\nsurvives, the shear should decrease some after 36 hours, which\r\ncould allow some strengthening up to the time of possible landfall\r\non the Florida Peninsula.  The new intensity forecast is an update\r\nof the previous forecast, and like the previous forecast it is low\r\nconfidence.\r\n\r\nThe greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be\r\nvery heavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and\r\nHaiti today and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and\r\nmud slides.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 17.7N  69.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 19.3N  71.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 20.8N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 22.3N  77.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 23.5N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 26.0N  81.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 28.5N  82.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  02/1200Z 30.5N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Erika continues to be be located west of\r\nthe convection due to the impact of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical\r\nwind shear.  Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the circulation has\r\nbeen losing definition during the day and it is now barely\r\nclosed, at best.  However, clusters of strong convection continue in\r\nthe eastern semicircle, and the initial intensity is held at 45 kt\r\non the premise that the strong winds observed earlier are still\r\npresent. The central pressure of 1009 mb is based on observations\r\nfrom the Dominican Republic.\r\n\r\nErika has been moving more westward for the past several hours and\r\nthe initial motion is 280/17.  There is no change to the forecast\r\nphilosophy from the previous advisory.  A generally west-\r\nnorthwestward to northwestward motion is expected for the next 48\r\nhours or so as Erika moves around the southwestern periphery of the\r\nsubtropical ridge. After that time, a northwestward and northward\r\nturn and a decrease in forward speed are forecast as Erika moves\r\nbetween the ridge and a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of\r\nMexico.  While the track guidance is generally in good agreement, it\r\nshould be noted that the guidance has been consistently forecasting\r\na west-northwestward turn that has so far failed to occur.  On the\r\nother hand, there is still a chance for a center to re-form\r\nfarther to the north during the passage over Hispaniola.  So while\r\nthe forecast track has been shifted west of the previous advisory,\r\nit still lies near the northern edge of the guidance envelope for\r\nthe first 48 hours to maintain some continuity with the previous\r\nforecast. Additional adjustments may be necessary depending on how\r\nErika evolves during the next 12-18 hours.\r\n\r\nThe forecast intensity has been significantly changed to show a\r\nmuch weaker cyclone, with Erika now forecast to become a\r\ntropical depression in about 24 hours, followed by some slight\r\nintensification at 48 and 72 hours.  This represents a compromise\r\nbetween two scenarios.  The first is the increasing likelihood that\r\nErika will degenerate to a tropical wave during the passage over\r\nHispaniola, a scenario supported by the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF\r\nmodels. The second acknowledges that the shear is still expected to\r\nsubside after 36 hours and we're are not quite prepared to rule out\r\ntropical storm impacts in Florida.  The SHIPS and LGEM support this\r\npossibility.\r\n\r\nThe greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very\r\nheavy rainfall over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti\r\ntoday and tonight. These rains could produce flash floods and mud\r\nslides.\r\n\r\nAlthough this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical\r\nstorm watch for portions of southern Florida, following typical\r\ntimelines, we have elected to wait until we see what's left of\r\nErika after it passes Hispaniola.  There is a significant chance\r\nthat no watches or warnings for Florida will be required.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 17.9N  71.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 19.5N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 21.3N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 22.7N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 24.0N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 27.0N  82.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 29.0N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  02/1800Z 31.0N  82.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nDropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very\r\nhelpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation\r\nassociated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of\r\nHispaniola. There is plenty of deep convection associated with the\r\ncyclone, and gusts to tropical storm force are being reported\r\nin Barahona, on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Given\r\nthat the circulation is interacting with land, the initial intensity\r\nhas been set at 40 kt. Erika is fighting both land and a hostile\r\nwind shear environment, and it will be very difficult for the\r\ncyclone to recover. Consequently, weakening in the short term is\r\nindicated in the NHC forecast, and there is a strong likelihood\r\nthat Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during its interaction\r\nwith land. However, if it survives, there is a very small\r\nopportunity for Erika to regain tropical storm strength in the\r\nFlorida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where the\r\nenvironment is less hostile. It is interesting to note, and to\r\nremember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical\r\nmodels were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to\r\nyesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is uncertain, and the best estimate is toward the\r\nwest-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 kt. It seems that Erika has\r\nchanged very little in forward speed since its formation. However,\r\nthe cyclone is reaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical\r\nridge and the steering currents are weaker. Therefore, Erika is\r\nforecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days.\r\nOnce in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a more northerly track is\r\nanticipated. There is not much track guidance available tonight\r\nsince most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC\r\nforecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model\r\nfields.\r\n\r\nThe greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very\r\nheavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These\r\nrains could produce flash floods and mudslides.\r\n\r\nWe must emphasize that although this would normally be an\r\nappropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern\r\nFlorida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until\r\nwe see if Erika survives after it passes Hispaniola.  There is a\r\nsignificant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be\r\nrequired.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 18.5N  72.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 20.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 22.0N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 23.5N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 25.0N  82.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 26.5N  83.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 28.5N  84.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 31.0N  84.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Erika","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015\r\n\r\nErika remains very disorganized with the deep convection still\r\ndisplaced well east and southeast of the apparent center. The\r\ninitial intensity has been set at 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak\r\nclassification from TAFB, and these winds are likely occurring well\r\neast and northeast of the center. Erika will have to contend with\r\nland interaction and strong shear for the next day or so, which\r\nshould result in the cyclone weakening to a depression later today,\r\nif not dissipating entirely. Assuming Erika survives the next 24\r\nhours, some restrengthening is possible over the Gulf of Mexico in a\r\nless hostile environment. The low-confidence NHC intensity forecast\r\nis similar to the previous one and below the latest intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe disorganized center of Erika has been difficult to locate, but\r\nmy best estimate of the initial motion is 290/17, with the center\r\nmoving a little to the left of the previous forecast track. Erika\r\nshould gradually turn toward the northwest and decelerate during the\r\nnext 36 to 48 hours as it moves around the edge of the subtropical\r\nridge. After that time a northward motion at an even slower forward\r\nspeed is expected. The new NHC track has been adjusted to the left,\r\nespecially during the first 48 hours, due to the initial position\r\nand motion, and is largely an update of the previous forecast after\r\nthat time. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus\r\nthrough 48 hours and is between the consensus and the GFS model\r\nafter that time. Given the uncertainty in the initial position and\r\nmotion, and whether Erika even has a closed center, confidence in\r\nthe details of the track forecast remains low.\r\n\r\nThe greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very\r\nheavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These\r\nrains could produce flash floods and mudslides.\r\n\r\nAlthough this would normally be an appropriate time for a tropical\r\nstorm watch for portions of southern Florida following typical\r\ntimelines, we have elected to wait until later today to see if the\r\ncirculation of Erika has survived its interaction with Hispaniola.\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating\r\nErika later this morning. There is a significant chance that no\r\nwatches or warnings for Florida will be required.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 19.1N  75.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 20.3N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 22.3N  80.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 24.0N  82.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 25.3N  83.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 27.0N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 29.5N  84.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 31.0N  84.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Erika","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-08-29 13:30:00","Key":"AL052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015\r\n930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015\r\n\r\nSurface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from\r\nan Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika\r\nhas degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of\r\nthe center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba.  Winds of\r\nnear 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and\r\nthese conditions will likely continue through at least this\r\nafternoon.\r\n\r\nThe remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the\r\nnorthern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24\r\nhours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours.\r\nAfter that time, a more northward motion is expected over the\r\neastern Gulf of Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear\r\ncould relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and\r\nthere is a possibility that Erika could regenerate.  Regardless of\r\nregeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread\r\nacross portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during\r\nthe next couple of days.\r\n\r\nThis will be the last advisory on this system by the National\r\nHurricane Center unless regeneration occurs.  Additional information\r\ncan be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National\r\nHurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast\r\noffice products issued by the National Weather Service.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1330Z 21.5N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-30 05:30:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n130 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nThe well-defined low pressure system located to the west of Conakry,\r\nGuinea, has acquired sufficient organized convection to be\r\nclassified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity of 30 kt\r\nis based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and two earlier ASCAT scatterometer passes indicating at\r\nleast 30 kt in the southern semicircle.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/10 kt. The depression is\r\nlocated south of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends\r\nwestward across northwestern Africa and into the eastern Atlantic\r\nfor several hundred miles. However, a weakness is located in a\r\nportion of the ridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands due to\r\na pronounced mid-latitude trough noted in water vapor imagery\r\ndigging east-southeastward. This should allow the cyclone to move\r\nnorthwestward toward the Cape Verde Islands through 48 hours. After\r\nthat time, the NHC model guidance is in fair agreement on the\r\naforementioned trough lifting out, allowing the ridge to build\r\nback in, which is expected to force the cyclone on a more westward\r\ntrack. The NHC track forecast lies close to the consensus models\r\nTVCA and GFEX.\r\n\r\nThe depression is embedded within favorable environmental and\r\noceanic conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear of less\r\nthan 10 kt, a moist mid-troposphere, and sea-surface temperatures\r\ngreater than 28 deg C, which should allow for steady strengthening\r\nfor the next 48 hours or so. The main inhibiting factor is the\r\ndecreasing instability ahead of the cyclone after 24-36 hours.\r\nHowever, the possibility still exists for the system to reach\r\nhurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape Verde\r\nIslands in 36-48 hours. For this reason, the Meteorological\r\nService of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Watch and a\r\nTropical Storm Warning for all of the Cape Verdes.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is basically a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0530Z 12.1N  18.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 12.7N  19.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 13.9N  21.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 15.3N  23.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 16.6N  24.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 18.3N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 18.9N  32.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 19.3N  36.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has continued\r\nto improve this early morning with the development of a small CDO\r\nfeature and a tightly curved band in the western and southern\r\nquadrants. A 0542 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite image further\r\nindicated that the convective band wraps almost completely around a\r\nprimitive mid-level eye feature. The initial intensity is raised to\r\n35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, and\r\nthis intensity could be conservative based on the impressive SSMI/S\r\nsatellite signature. This makes Fred only the fourth Atlantic\r\ntropical storm to form east of 19W longitude in NHC's database.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 305/10 kt. There is no change to the\r\nprevious forecast track reasoning. Fred is expected to move\r\nnorthwestward toward a weakness just northwest of the Cape Verde\r\nIslands within a deep-layer subtropical ridge. The mid-tropospheric\r\ntrough that is responsible for the weakness is forecast by the\r\nglobal and regional models to shift eastward over the next 24-36\r\nhours, which should allow the ridge to build back in, forcing Fred\r\non a west-northwestward to westward track after 48-72 hours. The\r\nlatest NHC model guidance is tightly packed about the previous\r\nforecast track, so the new track forecast is essentially just an\r\nupdate of the previous advisory, and lies close to the GFEX and TVCA\r\nconsensus model solutions.\r\n\r\nFred is expected to remain in favorable environmental and oceanic\r\nconditions for the next 36 hours, characterized by vertical wind\r\nshear less than 10 kt, mid-level humidity values greater than 70\r\npercent, and sea-surface temperatures of 27.5-28 deg C. The main\r\ninhibiting factor is decreasing instability ahead of the cyclone\r\nafter 24 hours. However, there should still be enough available\r\ninstability to support deep convection that will allow at least\r\nsteady strengthening through 36 hours to occur, and Fred could still\r\nreach hurricane status before or while it moves through the Cape\r\nVerde Islands in 36 hours or so. After 48 hours, southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear is expected to begin affecting the cyclone while\r\nFred is moving over sub-27C SSTs. These less favorable conditions\r\nshould combine to induce a gradual weakening trend. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN\r\nintensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 12.4N  18.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 13.4N  20.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 14.6N  22.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 16.0N  23.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 17.0N  25.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 18.5N  29.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 19.2N  34.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 19.8N  38.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery indicates that convection associated\r\nwith the tropical cyclone continues to organize.  A curved band of\r\nconvection now wraps almost completely around the center and recent\r\nimages show that a small CDO feature has developed. An earlier\r\nWindSat microwave overpass also revealed a well-defined inner core.\r\nDvorak T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS are around 3.0, and based on\r\nthese the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe environment ahead of Fred appears conducive for strengthening\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours.  During that time, there will\r\nbe sufficient mid-level moisture, the shear is expected to remain\r\nlow, and the cyclone will be traversing sea surface temperatures\r\nof 27 to 28C.  Therefore, steady strengthening is anticipated and\r\nthe SHIPS and LGEM models bring Fred to hurricane status within\r\n24 hours.  Strengthening is also supported by the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels, which both show the cyclone deepening while it moves through\r\nthe Cape Verde Islands.  After 36 hours, lower sea surface\r\ntemperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and a more stable\r\nenvironment should cause weakening.\r\n\r\nFred is moving northwestward at about 11 kt. The tropical storm is\r\nforecast to move northwestward toward a break in the subtropical\r\nridge to the north of the Cape Verde Islands.  In a couple of days,\r\nthe ridge is forecast to build westward, which should cause Fred to\r\nturn west-northwestward.  As Fred weakens and become a more shallow\r\ncyclone late in the period, a westward to west-northwestward\r\nmotion is expected.  The NHC track is near the consensus of the\r\nECMWF and GFS models through 72 hours.  Later in the period, the NHC\r\nforecast shows a weaker system moving more westward, and this track\r\nis along the southern edge of the guidance in best agreement with\r\nthe ECMWF.\r\n\r\nBased on this track and intensity forecast, the Meteorological\r\nService of the Cape Verde Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning\r\nfor those islands.\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 13.4N  19.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 14.3N  21.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 15.7N  23.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 17.2N  25.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 18.3N  27.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 19.5N  31.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 20.5N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 21.0N  39.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nFred has continued to strengthen this afternoon.  A new burst of\r\ndeep convection has developed over the center, with the CDO becoming\r\nmore symmetric.  Late afternoon visible satellite pictures also\r\nreveal increased banding in all quadrants.  AMSR-2 and GCOM\r\nmicrowave data from late this morning indicated that Fred continues\r\nto exhibit a well-defined inner core with a closed low-level ring in\r\nthe 37 GHz imagery.  The initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt,\r\nwhich is in agreement with a subjective data T-number of 3.5 from\r\nTAFB and T3.4 from UW/CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nFred is forecast to remain in a favorable environment characterized\r\nby very low vertical wind shear, warm water, and sufficient\r\nmid-level moisture during the next day or so.  Therefore, additional\r\nstrengthening is expected and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to\r\nbecome a hurricane tonight or early Monday.  This is supported by\r\nthe statistical guidance and the HWRF model which bring Fred to\r\nhurricane status.  In about 36 hours, the tropical cyclone\r\nwill be moving into a more hostile environment of increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a more\r\nstable air mass.  This should result in weakening throughout the\r\nremainder of the forecast period, and the new NHC forecast weakens\r\nFred to a tropical depression by 120 h.\r\n\r\nFred has been moving faster than predicted today, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 310/14 kt.  The forecast track philosophy remains\r\nunchanged from before.  The cyclone should move northwestward toward\r\na break in the subtropical ridge during the next day or so.  In a\r\ncouple of days, Fred should turn west-northwestward as the ridge\r\nrebuilds to the north of the cyclone over the eastern and\r\ncentral Atlantic.  The updated NHC track forecast is a little north\r\nof the previous advisory after 48 hours to be in better agreement\r\nwith the GFEX (GFS and ECMWF) consensus model.\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 14.4N  21.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 15.6N  22.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 16.9N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 18.2N  26.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 19.2N  28.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 20.6N  31.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 21.8N  35.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 22.8N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nFred has been maintaining strong convection in its CDO, and\r\nmicrowave data show a well-defined inner core.  Subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak intensity estimates have not increased over the\r\npast several hours, however.  The current intensity estimate is 60\r\nkt, which is slightly above the most recent ADT values from\r\nUW-CIMSS.  Upper-level outflow is well-defined over the tropical\r\ncyclone.  The system should remain over marginally warm sea surface\r\ntemperatures with moderate vertical shear for the next day or so,\r\nand sounding data from Sal in the Cape Verde Islands indicate that\r\nthe Saharan Air Layer is not very prominent ahead of Fred.  Given\r\nthese conducive factors in the short term, the storm is likely to\r\nstrengthen into a hurricane overnight.  By 36 hours, vertical shear\r\nis forecast to increase significantly and a weakening trend should\r\nbe underway by that time.  Late in the forecast period, model\r\nguidance shows very dry low- to mid-level air affecting Fred with\r\nthe shear remaining strong.  This should result in the cyclone\r\ndegenerating to a depression by the end of the period.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is\r\nthe same as the previous one.\r\n\r\nGeostationary and microwave satellite imagery show that Fred\r\ncontinues on its northwestward trek.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nis unchanged from the previous package.  For the next few days,\r\na weakening mid-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic\r\nshould result in the tropical cyclone continuing northwestward with\r\ndecreasing forward speed.  Late in the forecast period, the ridge\r\nbuilds westward a bit and this, along with the weakening cyclone\r\nresponding more to the lower-level flow, is likely to result in a\r\nturn to the left with time.  The official track forecast is close to\r\na consensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions and lies on the southern\r\nside of the guidance suite.  This is basically an update of the\r\nprevious NHC track prediction.\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 15.3N  22.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 16.2N  23.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 17.5N  25.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 18.8N  27.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 19.6N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 20.8N  32.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 22.0N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 23.0N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nFred's overall cloud pattern has only changed slightly since the\r\nprevious advisory. However, the inner-core convection has increased\r\nmarkedly, including the development of a well-defined, vertically\r\ndeep, 15 n mi diameter eye as noted in recent AMSR and AMSU passive\r\nmicrowave satellite data. Upper-level outflow is good in all\r\nquadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based\r\non a blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB,\r\na UW-CIMSS ADT value of T4.4/75 kt, and a NHC objective Dvorak\r\nT-number of T4.5/77 kt.\r\n\r\nFred has maintained a steady northwestward motion but has slowed\r\ndown some, and is now moving 305/10 kt. The track forecast and\r\nrationale remain unchanged from the previous advisory. Water\r\nvapor-derived winds indicate that the break in the subtropical ridge\r\nto the northwest of the Cape Verde Islands is beginning to fill in\r\nbased on previous southwesterly winds now having been replaced by\r\neast-northeasterly mid- to upper-level winds. Fred is expected to\r\ncontinue its northwestward motion for the next 12-24 hours and pass\r\nnear or over the Cape Verde Islands of Boa Vista this morning, and\r\nover or near Sao Nicolau, Sao Vicente, and Santo Antao late this\r\nafternoon and into tonight. As the ridge builds steadily westward to\r\nthe north of Fred, the hurricane should gradually turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest by 36 hours and beyond. This will bring the cyclone\r\nover progressively cooler waters and into increasing vertical wind\r\nshear conditions. The official forecast track is just an update of\r\nthe previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF model tracks.\r\n\r\nThe vertical shear is expected to remain quite low at less than\r\n5 kt for the next 12 hours as Fred is passing through the Cape Verde\r\nIslands archipelago. With ocean temperatures remaining above 27 deg\r\nC during that time, some additional strengthening is possible. After\r\nthe hurricane clears the Cape Verde Islands, however, the\r\ncombination of decreasing SSTs, decreasing mid-level moisture, and\r\nincreasing west-southwesterly vertical wind shear should induce a\r\ngradual weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN consensus model\r\nthrough 36 hours, and is lower than IVCN from 48-120 hours.\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 15.6N  22.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 16.6N  24.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 17.9N  26.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 19.0N  28.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 19.7N  29.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 20.8N  33.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 22.0N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite pictures and earlier microwave data indicate\r\nthat Fred has a well-defined inner core.  The outer banding that\r\nwas noted yesterday is no longer evident, and the hurricane is quite\r\ncompact.  A well-defined eye was evident in both a 0904 UTC\r\nSSMIS and 1121 UTC AMSU microwave overpasses. The initial intensity\r\nis raised to 75 kt, which is between the latest objective and\r\nsubjective satellite estimates from UW/CIMSS and TAFB, respectively.\r\nSatellite data suggest that the eye of Fred passed just southwest of\r\nBoa Vista Island in the Cape Verde Islands, however the northeastern\r\neyewall likely moved over a portion of that island just before 1200\r\nUTC this morning.\r\n\r\nThe sea surface temperatures along the path of Fred are beginning\r\nto decrease, however, the vertical shear is expected to remain quite\r\nlow for another 12 hours or so.  Little change in strength is\r\nexpected today.  By Tuesday, Fred will be over SSTS of around 26C\r\nand southwesterly shear is forecast to increase.  This should cause\r\ngradual weakening, and a further increase in shear and a drier, more\r\nstable air mass should cause a faster rate of decay after 36 hours.\r\nThe tropical cyclone is now forecast to become a tropical depression\r\nin about 4 days, and degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nFred continues to move northwestward at about 10 kt. The hurricane\r\nshould maintain a northwestward heading during the next 12 to 24\r\nhours. During this time, the center of Fred is expected to pass over\r\nor very close to the northwestern Cape Verde Islands of Sao Nicolou,\r\nSanta Luzuia, Sao Vicente, and Sao Antao. On Tuesday, a west-\r\nnorthwestward turn is predicted as a mid-level ridge builds to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone.  Fred should then maintain a\r\nwest-northwestward heading during the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The NHC track remains on the south side of the guidance\r\nenvelope, in best agreement with a consensus of the typically\r\nreliable GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nAccording to the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record, which\r\nbegins in 1851, Fred is the first hurricane to pass through the Cape\r\nVerde Islands since 1892.  We caution, however, that the database is\r\nless reliable prior to the satellite era (mid 1960s onward).\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 16.4N  23.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 17.3N  25.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 18.6N  26.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 19.6N  28.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 20.3N  30.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 21.4N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 22.5N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 24.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fred","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nFred likely peaked in intensity this morning.  Microwave data\r\nreceived since the previous advisory shows that the eye has become\r\nopen over the southern semicircle, however, the center remains\r\nembedded in an area of cloud top temperatures below -70C.  Although\r\nDvorak T-numbers have changed little since the previous advisory,\r\nthe initial wind speed has been lowered to 70 kt, based on the\r\ndegraded inner-core structure.  The environment ahead of Fred is\r\nexpected to become increasingly hostile with marginal sea surface\r\ntemperatures, increasing southwesterly shear, and less favorable\r\nthermodynamic conditions.  As a result, steady weakening is\r\npredicted.  Since Fred is a small tropical cyclone, it is likely to\r\nsuccumb to the shear faster than indicated by the statistical\r\nguidance, and the NHC forecast is slightly lower than the SHIPS/LGEM\r\nmodels.  Despite warmer SSTs along the forecast track at days 4 and\r\n5, the shear and dry mid-level air are likely to cause Fred to\r\nbecome a remnant low by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/10 kt.  The center of Fred\r\nwill pass near or over the northwestern Cape Verde Islands through\r\nearly tonight.  A turn toward the west-northwestward is expected on\r\nTuesday as the subtropical ridge to the north of Fred builds\r\nwestward.  A west-northwestward heading should then continue during\r\nthe remainder of the forecast period.  The GFS and ECMWF models\r\nremain on the southern side of the guidance envelope and the NHC\r\nforecast is near a consensus of these typically reliable models.\r\nThe NHC forecast at the long-range leans a bit closer to the ECMWF,\r\nwhich shows a weaker Fred moving more westward.\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 17.2N  24.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 18.2N  25.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 19.2N  27.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 20.1N  29.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 20.8N  31.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 22.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 23.2N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 25.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nFred's inner-core deep convection has collapsed, and what\r\nthunderstorm activity remains is very ragged in appearance.\r\nAlthough the convection may make somewhat of a comeback on the\r\ndiurnal maximum tomorrow morning, the current degradation of the\r\ncloud pattern necessitates downgrading the system to a tropical\r\nstorm.  The current intensity estimate is a rather uncertain 60\r\nkt.  As Fred moves away from the Cape Verde Islands, the environment\r\nahead becomes increasingly unfavorable with increasing shear,\r\nprogressively drier mid-level air and increased stability.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM\r\nguidance.  Given the storm's current appearance and the hostile\r\nfuture environment, however, Fred may weaken faster than indicated\r\nhere.\r\n\r\nThe center has become difficult to track, and my best guess of the\r\ninitial motion is 310/10 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north of\r\nFred is forecast to build gradually westward.  This should cause\r\nthe cyclone to turn toward the west-northwest.  A more westward\r\ntrack with time is also consistent with Fred becoming a shallower\r\ncyclone steered more by the low-level flow.  The official forecast\r\nremains on the southern side of the guidance envelope and is mostly\r\na blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.  This is also very\r\nsimilar to the previous NHC track forecast.\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 17.9N  25.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 18.6N  26.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 19.6N  28.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 20.5N  29.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 21.1N  31.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 22.2N  34.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 23.5N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 25.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nAfter a brief convective hiatus between about 0000-0200 UTC, deep\r\nconvection has redeveloped over the center of Fred and also in the\r\nnorthern semicircle. Several passive microwave satellite images\r\nindicate that Fred's low-level center is a little south of the\r\nprevious advisory track, due to southerly vertical wind shear\r\ndisplacing most of the convection to the north of the center.\r\nHowever, that same imagery also indicated that Fred still has a\r\nlow-level circulation that is quite robust, including a nearly\r\nclosed 20 n mi diameter eye. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based\r\non a blend of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt based on microwave fixes.\r\nFred is expected to move between west-northwest and northwest for\r\nthe next 72 hours as a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone\r\ngradually builds westward. After that time, a turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest and north is forecast due to a deep-layer trough\r\ncurrently over eastern Canada that is expected to dig southeastward\r\nover the central Atlantic and erode the ridge. The NHC model\r\nguidance is in decent agreement on this developing pattern change.\r\nHowever, there are significant differences in the model solutions\r\nwith the HWRF, GFS, and GFDL models keeping Fred stronger and\r\nmaking the northward turn sooner, whereas the weaker solution\r\nmodels like the UKMET and ECMWF take a weaker and more vertically\r\nshallow cyclone farther west before turning it northward.\r\nThe official forecast track is a little south of the previous\r\nadvisory track, mainly due to the more southerly initial position,\r\nand follows a blend of the weaker UKMET and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFred is expected to gradually weaken throughout the forecast\r\nperiod as the cyclone moves into an environment of increasing\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind in excess of 20 kt and drier and\r\nmore stable air, and over SSTs of near 26 deg C. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is a little lower than the previous advisory, as well as\r\nthe consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nPlease note that the track/cone graphic, an automatically generated\r\nproduct, does not have the capability of displaying warnings for the\r\nCape Verde Islands.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 18.0N  26.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 18.8N  27.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 19.7N  29.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 20.3N  30.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 21.0N  32.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 22.3N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 23.7N  38.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 26.0N  40.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nFred continues to quickly weaken this morning as the associated\r\ndeep convection near the center has decreased in coverage and\r\nbecome less organized.  The center has also become exposed to the\r\nsouth of the remaining shower and thunderstorm activity.  The\r\ninitial intensity is reduced to 45 kt, which is based on an 1100 UTC\r\nASCAT pass that showed maximum winds of around 40 kt.  Additional\r\nweakening is predicted during the next few days while Fred moves\r\ninto a more hostile environment of increasing southwesterly shear,\r\nmid-level dry air, and marginal sea surface temperatures.  The\r\ntropical cyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in\r\n36 to 48 hours, and become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days, but this\r\ncould occur sooner.\r\n\r\nFred is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 9 kt.  The\r\ntropical cyclone is expected to be steered west-northwestward to\r\nthe south of a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic during\r\nthe next couple of days.  The western portion of the ridge is\r\nforecast to weaken after 72 hours when a large mid- to\r\nupper-level trough begins to deepen over the central Atlantic.\r\nThis should cause the remnant low to turn northwestward late in the\r\nforecast period.  The models that keep Fred stronger show the\r\nnorthwestward turn occurring much sooner than the NHC forecast.\r\nThe NHC track closely follows the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models that\r\nall take a weaker Fred more westward before turning it northwestward\r\nlate in the forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 18.3N  27.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 19.0N  28.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 20.5N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 21.1N  33.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 22.8N  36.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 24.4N  38.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nFred's weakening appears to have ceased for the moment.  Deep\r\nconvection developed just north of the center since the previous\r\nadvisory and the overall organization of the tropical cyclone has\r\nchanged little during the day.  A blend of the various Dvorak\r\nT-numbers and the earlier ASCAT data support maintaining an initial\r\nintensity of 45 kt.  The intensity forecast reasoning remains\r\nunchanged from the previous forecast.  Fred will be moving into an\r\narea of increasing southwesterly shear and a less conducive\r\nthermodynamic environment.  This should cause the tropical cyclone\r\nto gradually weaken during the next several days, and Fred is\r\nexpected to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/10 kt. Fred should continue\r\nmoving west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over\r\nthe eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3 days.  The global\r\nmodels predict that the western portion of the ridge will weaken\r\nafter 72 hours when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.\r\nAfter this occurs, the remnant low should turn northwestward and\r\nnorthward in the low-level southeasterly flow.  The model guidance\r\nhas shifted significantly westward this cycle, with most of the\r\nmodels showing a weaker Fred moving more westward.  The NHC forecast\r\nhas been adjusted accordingly, however it lies to the north of the\r\nmodel consensus after 36 hours to maintain some continuity from\r\nthe previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 18.8N  28.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 19.4N  29.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 20.6N  32.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 21.3N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 22.0N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 23.0N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 25.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe deep convection near the center of Fred has decreased during\r\nthe past few hours, with the low-level center now partially exposed\r\nto the west of the convection.  An ASCAT-B overpass near 0000 UTC\r\nprobed the western side of the circulation and showed 40-kt winds\r\nnear the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity remains 45\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 295/11.  There is no change to\r\nthe track forecast philosophy since the previous advisory.  Fred\r\nshould continue moving west-northwestward to the south of a low-\r\nto mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic during the next 2 to 3\r\ndays.  Thereafter, the western portion of the ridge is expected to\r\nweaken when a trough deepens over the central Atlantic.  This\r\nevolution should steer Fred or its remnants generally\r\nnorthwestward. There has been little change in the forecast guidance\r\nsince the last advisory.  Based on this, the new forecast track is\r\nan update of the previous track through 72 hours and lies just north\r\nof the consensus models.  After 72 hours, the track has been\r\nadjusted westward, but still lies to the east of the center of the\r\nguidance envelope as a compromise between the current guidance and\r\nthe previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred is over\r\nsea surface temperatures of about 26 deg C and is about to encounter\r\nstrong westerly vertical wind shear.  In addition, the cyclone is\r\nentraining a drier and more stable air mass.  This combination\r\nshould cause weakening over the next several days.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, and it\r\ncalls for Fred to weaken to a depression in 30 to 36 hours and\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 19.4N  29.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 19.8N  30.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 20.4N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 21.0N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 21.4N  34.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 23.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z 25.0N  43.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nFred has been devoid of significant deep convection near the\r\ncenter for almost 6 hours. The pronounced upper-level circulation\r\nand associated convection is displaced at least 150 n mi to the\r\neast of the now fully exposed low-level circulation due to strong\r\nwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity of 40 kt is\r\nbased on a gradual spin down of the 45-kt ASCAT-B vortex mentioned\r\nin the previous discussion, and a blend of 35-kt and 45-kt Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, respectively.\r\n\r\nNow that the upper-level circulation has decoupled from the low- and\r\nmid-level circulations, it is unlikely that Fred will restrengthen\r\nsince the cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs of about 26 deg C,\r\ninto even stronger shear in excess of 30 kt, and also into a much\r\ndrier airmass. Cloud top temperatures in the radius of maximum\r\nwinds are only in the -10 to -20 deg C range, which suggests that\r\nFred's circulation now likely only extends no higher than the 400-mb\r\nlevel, if that. As a result, Fred should continue to slowly spin\r\ndown and become a depression within the next 18-24 hours, and\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low within 36 hours, if not sooner. The\r\nNHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF\r\nmodels, which steadily weaken Fred, and is lower than the IVCN model\r\ndue to the GFDL model re-strengthening Fred into a 75-kt hurricane\r\nagain, which has created a high bias in the consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/09.  There remains no significant\r\nchange to the previous track forecast or reasoning. Fred is\r\nexpected to continue moving west-northwestward for the next 72 hours\r\nor so while it remains embedded within the trade wind flow south of\r\nthe Bermuda-Azores subtropical high. After that time, the models\r\ncontinue to forecast a mid-latitude trough to dig southward over\r\nthe central Atlantic and erode the western portion of the ridge,\r\nallowing Fred to turn slowly northwestward by 96 hours and\r\nnorthward by 120 hours. The new forecast track is a tad south of\r\nthe previous advisory track, mainly due to the more southerly\r\ninitial position. The track forecast also lies along the southern\r\nedge of the guidance envelope and is left of the TVCA consensus\r\nmodel due to the more northerly track created by the much stronger\r\nand vertically deeper GFDL model, which has strongly biased the\r\nconsensus model with a more northward and eastward track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 19.5N  30.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 20.0N  31.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 21.2N  34.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 21.6N  35.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 22.3N  39.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 23.5N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z 25.6N  43.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nFred has been without deep convection for about 12 hours and\r\nconsists of a tight swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The\r\ncirculation remains fairly strong and the initial wind speed is\r\nmaintained at 40 kt, which is in agreement with data from a recent\r\nASCAT overpass.  If organized deep convection does not return very\r\nsoon, which appears unlikely, Fred will become a post-tropical\r\ncyclone this afternoon.  Strong westerly shear, marginal sea surface\r\ntemperatures, and dry mid-level air should cause the circulation to\r\ngradually spin down during the next few days.  Very late in the\r\nforecast period, the remnant low could be over slightly warmer SSTs\r\nand in an area of lower shear.  Redevelopment appears unlikely,\r\nhowever, due to a dry and stable air mass over the east-central\r\nAtlantic.\r\n\r\nFred is moving west-northwestward at about 9 kt.  The forecast calls\r\nfor the cyclone to continue on a west-northwestward heading over\r\nthe next 72 hours to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over the\r\neastern Atlantic.  After that time, the remnant low is predicted to\r\nturn turn northwestward, and then north-northwestward while it\r\nmoves around the western periphery of a low-level high pressure\r\narea centered south of the Azores.  The new NHC track forecast is\r\nin good agreement with the latest ECMWF, which is along the\r\nsouthern edge of the model envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 19.8N  30.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 20.2N  32.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 20.9N  33.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 21.5N  35.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 21.9N  36.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 22.7N  39.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 24.2N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z 26.5N  42.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nThunderstorm activity has redeveloped about 70 n mi north of the\r\ncenter this afternoon.  Thus, the system remains a tropical cyclone\r\nfor a bit longer.  The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, partially\r\nbased on the earlier ASCAT data and an 1800 UTC Dvorak CI number of\r\n2.5 from TAFB.  Strong westerly shear and dry mid-level air\r\nshould cause Fred to weaken and become a remnant low within the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours.  Because Fred will remain over marginal SSTs\r\nfor the next couple of days, however, it is difficult to predict\r\nwhen the system will completely lose its organized deep convection.\r\nNear the end of the forecast period the cyclone could move into a\r\nslightly more favorable environment, but few of the statistical or\r\ndynamical models indicate restrengthening at this time.\r\n\r\nThe track forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  Fred should move\r\nwest-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over\r\nthe eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,\r\nthe cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward around\r\nthe western portion of a high pressure area located south of the\r\nAzores.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous forecast and\r\nis near the middle of the model envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 20.3N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 20.7N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 22.4N  37.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 23.4N  40.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 25.3N  41.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z 27.5N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nThe cluster of thunderstorm activity that developed before the\r\nprevious advisory has persisted, with cloud tops colder than -80C\r\nseen to the northeast of the partly exposed low-level center.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous\r\nadvisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThere is little change in either the forecast guidance or the\r\nforecast track since the last advisory.  Fred should move\r\nwest-northwestward to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge over\r\nthe eastern Atlantic during the next 2-3 days.  After that time,\r\nthe cyclone should turn northwestward, and then northward between\r\nthe ridge and a low- to mid-level trough over the central Atlantic.\r\nThe new forecast track lies near the center of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFred is experiencing 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind shear, and\r\nthe dynamical models suggest this will continue for the next 60-72\r\nhours.  This, in combination with dry air entraining into the\r\ncyclone, should cause it to degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36\r\nhours, if not earlier.  After 72 hours, the remnants of Fred are\r\nexpected to reach an environment of warmer sea surface temperatures,\r\ndecreasing shear, and increasing moisture.  In theory, this could\r\nallow the system to regenerate.  However, while the dynamical\r\nmodels show the remnant low persisting through 120 hours, none of\r\nthem show any significant intensification in the more favorable\r\nenvironment.  Based on this, the forecast will continue to show a\r\nweak remnant low through 120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 20.6N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 21.2N  33.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 21.8N  35.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 23.5N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 26.0N  42.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z 28.5N  41.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nFred has made a slight resurgence since the previous advisory with\r\nthe development of a large cluster of deep convection in the\r\nnortheastern quadrant, including a narrow band of cloud tops colder\r\nthan -80C having persisted very near the partly exposed low-level\r\ncenter. The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on a\r\nblend of satellite intensity estimates T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30\r\nkt from SAB, and T2.5/35 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate has slowed slightly to 295/07 kt.\r\nOtherwise, there remains no change to the forecast track or\r\nreasonings mentioned in previous advisory discussions. A shortwave\r\ntrough currently moving off of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast is\r\nforecast by the global and regional models to dig east-southeastward\r\ninto the central Atlantic during the next 5 days, and gradually\r\nerode the western portion of the Bermuda-Azores ridge. This will\r\nallow Fred to slowly turn northwestward in 48-72 hours, and turn\r\nnorthward at 96 and 120 hours. The NHC guidance is in much better\r\nagreement on this developing scenario compared to 24 hours ago. The\r\nnew official forecast track is essentially just an extension of the\r\nprevious advisory track and lies close to the consensus models.\r\n\r\nThe GFS and ECMWF models are indicating that more than 30 kt of\r\nwesterly deep-layer vertical wind shear is affecting Fred. However,\r\nthis has not kept deep convection from redeveloping near the center,\r\nat least for the time being. These strong shear conditions are\r\nforecast to persist and even increase during the next 48 hours and,\r\nwhen combined with increasingly drier mid-level air, should induce\r\ngradual weakening within the next 12 hours or so. Fred is forecast\r\nto weaken to a depression by late tonight or Friday morning, and\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low by Friday night. By 72 hours and\r\nbeyond, the remnant low is forecast to reach a more favorable\r\nenvironment of warmer sea surface temperatures, decreasing shear,\r\nand increasing moisture, which suggest that there is at least a low\r\nprobability that regeneration could occur. As a result, the official\r\nintensity forecast continues to show a remnant low through 120 h.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 20.8N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 21.4N  34.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 21.9N  36.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 22.2N  37.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 22.6N  39.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 24.0N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 26.5N  41.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0600Z 28.8N  40.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nAs anticipated, a surge of strong upper-level westerly winds removed\r\nmost of the convection from Fred overnight, and again the cyclone\r\nconsists of a very vigorous swirl of low clouds. Just like\r\nyesterday, a few new convective cells are redeveloping to the north\r\nof the center. Assuming that the winds are gradually decaying, the\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt. The strong upper-level\r\nwinds affecting Fred are forecast to continue creating a very\r\nhostile environment for the cyclone. Consequently, the NHC forecast\r\ncalls for Fred to become a remnant low in about 12 to 24 hours. By\r\nthe end of the forecast period, if Fred has not dissipated, models\r\nare showing less shear. This combined with the presence of anomalous\r\nwarm waters in the North Atlantic, will provide a small opportunity\r\nfor Fred to redevelop some as indicated in the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nA weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic\r\nis steering Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt.\r\nIn a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward the\r\nnorthwest and north. After 3 days, the system will then recurve\r\ntoward the northeast around the ridge. Although most of the track\r\nmodels provided this solution, the NHC forecast is very close to the\r\nconsensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 21.5N  34.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 21.9N  35.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 22.3N  37.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 22.6N  38.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 25.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1200Z 30.5N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nDespite the 35-kt westerly wind shear impinging on Fred, deep\r\nconvection, once again, regenerated near or over the center of the\r\nvigorous low-level circulation this afternoon. Given the lack of\r\nscatterometer data today, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt\r\nbased on the blend of Dvorak estimates. It will be very difficult\r\nfor Fred to survive the very strong westerly wind shear which is\r\nforecast to continue affecting the cyclone for the next couple of\r\ndays and the NHC forecast calls for Fred to become a remnant low in\r\nabout 24 hours. By the end of the forecast period, if Fred has not\r\ncompletely dissipated, the shear could be lighter. This combined\r\nwith the presence of anomalously warm waters in the North Atlantic,\r\ncould provide a very small opportunity for Fred to redevelop. The\r\n1200 UTC global models, however, show a less favorable environment\r\nfor Fred to redevelop than in earlier runs, and perhaps the\r\nregeneration will not materialize.\r\n\r\nA weak to moderate ridge of high pressure over the North Atlantic\r\ncontinues to steer Fred toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at\r\n10 kt. In a couple of days, Fred or its remnants will be located on\r\nthe southwestern edge of the ridge, and will begin to move toward\r\nthe northwest and north. After 3 days, the system will recurve\r\ntoward the northeast in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC\r\nforecast continues to be very close to the consensus of the GFS and\r\nthe ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 22.0N  35.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 22.4N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 22.7N  38.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 23.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 23.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 29.0N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1800Z 31.0N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has once again decreased markedly due to strong\r\nwesterly shear and marginal SSTs. The initial intensity remains 35\r\nkt based on a large area of 30-35 kt winds seen in a recent ASCAT-B\r\npass. While Fred is forecast to move over gradually warmer waters,\r\nthe strong shear will continue for the next couple of days and Fred\r\nis forecast to become a remnant low in about 24 hours. If the\r\nremnant low survives, there is a possibility of regeneration in\r\nabout 4 days when Fred will be moving into a more favorable\r\nenvironment, but this is uncertain.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/10, as Fred has been moving a\r\nlittle to the left of the previous forecast track. While the\r\noverall track forecast reasoning has not changed, there is a fair\r\namount of spread in the guidance as to how sharply Fred will\r\nrecurve around the subtropical ridge and into the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies. Overall, the guidance and the NHC forecast have shifted\r\na little to the left this cycle through 48 hours to account for the\r\ninitial position and motion. After that time, the NHC track is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one and is near the multi-model\r\nconsensus, between the faster ECMWF and UKMET and the slower GFS,\r\nGEFS mean, and HWRF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 22.0N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 22.2N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 22.5N  39.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 22.9N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 23.6N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 26.3N  42.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 29.5N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n120H  09/0000Z 32.0N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nFred continues to produce bursts of deep convection near and east\r\nof the center despite being affected by at least 30 kt of westerly\r\nvertical wind shear and dry air entrainment.  Various subjective\r\nand objective satellite intensity estimates range between 30 and 45\r\nkt, and based on these data the initial intensity remains 35 kt.\r\n\r\nFred has continued to turn a little to the left and the initial\r\nmotion is now 275/9.  The cyclone or its remnants is expected to\r\nrecurve between the subtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer\r\ntrough to the west during the forecast period.  While the track\r\nguidance agrees with this scenario, there remain some difference in\r\nthe speed after recurvature between the slower GFS and the faster\r\nECMWF and UKMET. The new forecast track is an update of the previous\r\ntrack with a small nudge to the east after 72 hours, and it splits\r\nthe difference between the faster and slower track guidance\r\nmentioned above.\r\n\r\nIt may sound like a broken record, but Fred is expected to remain\r\nin an environment of strong shear and dry air for the next 36-48\r\nhours.  This should cause the system the degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow within 24 hours.  The dynamical models suggests that the shear\r\nshould decrease after 48 hours, although there is poor agreement\r\nbetween them as to what the upper-level wind pattern will be near\r\nFred.  The GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models forecast Fred or its\r\nremnants to intensify during that time, while the ECMWF and NAVGEM\r\nmodels show little intensification.  Based on these forecasts and\r\nthe statistical guidance, the intensity forecast calls for Fred to\r\nregain tropical cyclone status at around 96 hours, albeit with a\r\nconsiderable amount of uncertainty.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 22.1N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 22.3N  38.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 22.6N  40.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 23.2N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 24.1N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 27.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 29.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n120H  09/0600Z 32.0N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fred","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nFred consists of a tight swirl of low clouds with intermittent\r\nbursts of deep convection. There has been no scatterometer data over\r\nthe cyclone for several hours, but it appears that the circulation\r\nis not as vigorous as it was yesterday. Dvorak T-numbers are\r\ngradually decreasing, and on this basis, the initial intensity has\r\nbeen lowered to 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe shear is forecast to remain high during the next 48 hours or so,\r\nresulting in additional weakening. Fred is expected to become a\r\nremnant low tonight or Saturday, however, most of the global\r\nmodels suggest that the shear near the system could relax in 3\r\ndays. If Fred still exists by then, and given that the ocean is\r\nanomalously warm in the North Atlantic, there is a chance of\r\nregeneration. This would likely occur after Fred or its remnants\r\nrecurve into the mid-latitude westerlies.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt,\r\nsteered by a subtropical high to its north. A strong mid-latitude\r\ntrough is forecast by the global models to deepen in the central\r\nAtlantic during the next 2 days, and this pattern will force Fred to\r\nrecurve northeastward. This is indicated in the NHC forecast, which\r\nfollows the reliable dynamical guidance very closely. It is\r\ninteresting to note that the GFS global model in the past couple of\r\nruns keeps Fred lingering across the North Atlantic for more than a\r\nweek.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 22.3N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 22.6N  39.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 23.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 24.0N  42.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 25.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 28.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 30.5N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n120H  09/1200Z 34.0N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fred","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression consists of a very tight circulation largely devoid\r\nof deep convection. Recently a convective band is forming east of\r\nthe center, but it appears that each new burst of convection is\r\nweaker than the previous one. It is estimated that the winds are\r\nstill 30 kt, and given the strong shear the NHC forecast calls for\r\nFred to become a remnant low in 24 hours or so. The GFS and UK\r\nglobal models, as well as the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity\r\nguidance, regenerate Fred by the end of the forecast period, and so\r\ndoes the official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe steering pattern has not changed yet, and the depression is\r\nstill moving on a general west to west-northwest track at 8 kt. In\r\nabout 48 hours, a strong mid-latitude trough is forecast by the\r\nglobal models to deepen in the central Atlantic. This pattern should\r\nforce the depression or its remnants to recurve and become embedded\r\nwithin the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC forecast is within\r\nthe guidance envelope during the next 2 to 3 days and then lies\r\nbetween the GFS and the multi-model consensus. The GFS insists on\r\nkeeping Fred meandering across the North Atlantic for more than a\r\nweek.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 22.6N  39.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 22.8N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 23.3N  41.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 24.0N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 25.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 28.5N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 31.5N  35.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n120H  09/1800Z 33.5N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT-A pass just before 0000 UTC showed a small area of 35-kt\r\nwinds northeast of Fred's center, and that is the basis for the\r\ninitial intensity, making Fred a tropical storm once again. The\r\ncentral pressure has been adjusted upward to 1009 mb based on\r\nobservations from drifting buoy 13519, as it appears Fred is now\r\nembedded in an environment of higher pressure.  Despite rather\r\nhostile vertical shear, Fred has managed to maintain enough\r\norganized deep convection during the past couple of days to stave\r\noff post-tropical status. The latest burst of convection is now\r\nmoving away from the low-level center, but this bursting pattern\r\nseems likely to continue for the next couple of days as the cyclone\r\nmoves over gradually warmer waters in moderate to strong shear.\r\nSince Fred has survived this long, it seems less likely that the\r\ncyclone will become post-tropical in the short term, and that is no\r\nlonger shown in the official forecast. However, given our limited\r\nability to predict convective scale changes, this still remains a\r\npossibility.\r\n\r\nLittle significant change in intensity is shown in the first 48\r\nhours, as the guidance shows Fred between 30 and 35 kt during that\r\ntime. Subsequently, as the shear weakens all of the guidance shows\r\nat least some strengthening. The NHC forecast shows only a modest\r\nre-intensification later in the period, given the possibility that\r\nthe circulation of Fred could open up or be absorbed in 4 or 5 days\r\nas shown by the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/09, and Fred should begin to move\r\naround the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the\r\nnext couple of days and then turn northeastward in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies. This cycle the models have trended faster with the\r\nforward speed of Fred, and have shown a northward shift after 48\r\nhours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for these\r\ntrends, but now lies on the right side of the guidance envelope at\r\ndays 3 through 5. Given the large spread at these time ranges, and\r\nthe possibility that Fred could be absorbed or dissipate late in the\r\nperiod, the extended portion of the track forecast is of lower than\r\nnormal confidence.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 22.8N  40.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 23.2N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 23.9N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 25.3N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 27.1N  41.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 30.5N  38.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 34.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 36.0N  30.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":26,"Date":"2015-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nFred continues to produce bursts of convection, although the bursts\r\nare smaller and farther from the center than they were 24 hours\r\nago. This suggests that the ongoing 35-40 kt of westerly vertical\r\nshear is causing a gradual weakening.  The initial intensity remains\r\n35 kt based on a subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB,\r\nas well as objective AMSU and satellite consensus estimates from\r\nCIMSS and CIRA.  The central pressure has been lowered a little\r\nbased on additional observations from drifting buoy 13519, which\r\nreported a minimum pressure of 1008.4 mb as the center of Fred\r\npassed to the north.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/10.  Fred is approaching a large break in\r\nthe subtropical ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough and\r\nassociated surface low centered several hundred miles east of\r\nBermuda.  The track guidance is in good agreement that this\r\nbaroclinic system will move eastward for the next several days, with\r\nFred recurving to the northeast between it and the subtropical\r\nridge.  After recurvature, there is some spread in the forecast\r\nforward speed, with the new track compromising between the faster\r\nECMWF/GFS models and the slower UKMET/Canadian models.  The new\r\ntrack is nudged slightly to the north of the previous track from\r\n36-96 hours, and then is nudged a little to the east of the previous\r\ntrack at 120 hours.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is low in confidence due to several possible\r\nscenarios.  First, although it is not explicitly forecast, Fred\r\ncould become a remnant low at any time during the next 24 to 36\r\nhours due to continued shear and dry air entrainment, followed by\r\nregeneration to a tropical cyclone when the shear subsequently\r\ndecreases.  Second, the dynamical models have two scenarios for Fred\r\nas it interacts with the above-mentioned trough and surface low\r\nafter recurvature. One possibility, supported by the GFS and the\r\nECMWF, is that a relatively weak Fred gets absorbed into the\r\nbaroclinic low and dissipates earlier than currently forecast.\r\nAnother possibility, supported by the UKMET and Canadian models, is\r\nthat Fred stays farther away from the baroclinic low and intensifies\r\nmore than is currently forecast. Given the uncertainty, the new\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast in calling\r\nfor slight weakening early in the forecast period followed by slight\r\nintensification after 36 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 23.2N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 23.7N  42.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 24.7N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 26.3N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 28.2N  41.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 31.5N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 35.0N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 36.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fred","Adv":27,"Date":"2015-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nFred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear.\r\nHowever, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The\r\ninitial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and\r\ncontinuity.  I will not speculate any more about the convection\r\nredeveloping or not. The NHC forecast calls for little change in\r\nintensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the\r\nnext day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as\r\nindicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the\r\nsteering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west-\r\nnorthwest at about 7 kt.   A turn to the northwest and north should\r\nbegin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it\r\nbecomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC\r\nforecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the\r\nGFS and the ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 23.4N  41.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 23.9N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 25.5N  43.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 27.5N  41.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 29.5N  40.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 31.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 33.0N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 33.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fred","Adv":28,"Date":"2015-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nData from an ASCAT this morning confirmed what was estimated with\r\nconventional visible images. Although Fred still has a very well\r\ndefined closed circulation, maximum winds have decreased to 30 kt.\r\nIn addition, the NASA Global Hawk has been been sending live\r\nphotographs of the tight circulation of low clouds associated with\r\nFred from 60 thousand feet. Fred has been devoid of deep convection\r\nfor a few hours, but as it occurred yesterday, new small convective\r\ncells are currently trying to pop. As stated in the previous\r\nforecast, if resilient Fred survives the strong shear during the\r\nnext 24 hours or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification\r\nafter recurvature. This is indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and\r\nSHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance, and the GFS global model.\r\n\r\nFred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the\r\nsteering currents are weaker, and the cyclone appears to be moving\r\ntoward the northwest at about 5 kt. A turn to the north around the\r\nridge should begin tonight or early Sunday. Fred should then\r\nrecurve as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly\r\nflow on Monday. The NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope, and\r\nis close to the multi-model consensus with more weight given to the\r\nGFS and the ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 23.8N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 24.5N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 25.6N  43.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 27.0N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 28.5N  40.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 31.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 32.5N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 32.5N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fred","Adv":29,"Date":"2015-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nAfter being devoid of convection for about the past 12 hours, a new\r\nburst of thunderstorms has begun near the center of Fred.  Cirrus\r\nclouds motions suggest that shear remains fairly strong near the\r\ncenter of Fred, although seemingly less than this time yesterday.\r\nThe initial intensity will remain 30 kt, in line with the TAFB\r\nsatellite estimate.  Shear is expected to diminish in about a day,\r\nwhich could allow the cyclone to reintensify around that time while\r\nit moves over warm waters. However, any intensification is expected\r\nto be short-lived with marginal water temperatures and increasing\r\nshear likely by Wednesday.  The NHC forecast is close to the\r\nprevious one through 48 h, and is reduced a little bit at long range\r\nto reflect the less favorable conditions.\r\n\r\nFred is moving northwestward at about 9 kt into a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge. The depression should turn to the north and then\r\nnortheast during the day on Sunday while the cyclone moves on the\r\nnorthwestern side of the ridge, with that motion expected to\r\ncontinue for a couple of days.  Model guidance is generally faster\r\nduring this time, and the new offical forecast is faster than the\r\nprevious one. The cyclone could turn then eastward and southeastward\r\non days 4 and 5 due to ridging building over the northeastern\r\nAtlantic.  The track forecast is of low confidence at long range\r\ndue to considerable uncertainty about the strength of the tropical\r\ncyclone and the evolution of the ridge.  There have not been any big\r\nchanges to the model consensus, so the official forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the previous one at 96 and 120 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 24.1N  43.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 24.8N  43.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 26.4N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 28.0N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 29.5N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 32.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 32.5N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 31.5N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fred","Adv":30,"Date":"2015-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nThunderstorm activity has continued to pulse near the center of\r\nFred overnight, however, strong northwesterly shear is causing\r\nthe cloud tops to be quickly shunted southeastward.  The initial\r\nintensity is maintained at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a\r\nDvorak T-number of 2.0 from TAFB.  Little overall change in strength\r\nis expected today.  In 24 to 36 hours the shear is expected to\r\ndiminish, which could allow a brief opportunity for Fred to\r\nrestrengthen.  After that time, the cyclone is expected to enter an\r\narea of stronger westerly upper-level winds and cooler SSTs, which\r\nshould halt further intensification. Late in the period, strong\r\nshear and marginal SSTs should cause weakening.  An alternate\r\nscenario shown by the ECMWF is for the shear to cause Fred to\r\nweaken and become a trough of low pressure within the next 12\r\nto 24 hours.\r\n\r\nFred has finally made its much anticipated northward turn.  A turn\r\ntoward the northeast should occur later today as the cyclone is\r\nsteered around the western periphery of a low-level ridge to its\r\nnortheast.  A turn toward the east and then southeast are forecast\r\nlate in the period as a high pressure ridge builds to the north of\r\nthe cyclone.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory\r\nand is in best agreement with the 0000 UTC GFS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 24.9N  43.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 26.0N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 27.5N  41.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 29.2N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 30.5N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 32.2N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 32.5N  33.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 31.5N  32.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fred","Adv":31,"Date":"2015-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nFred continues to linger as a tropical depression.  Visible\r\nsatellite images indicate that the center of Fred remains well\r\ndefined, but the outer circulation has become elongated likely due\r\nto the interaction with a frontal system to its northwest.  Deep\r\nconvection is disorganized, and consists of two patches to the\r\nnorth and south of the center.  The initial wind speed estimate\r\nremains 30 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak classification from TAFB\r\nand ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  Fred is\r\ncurrently battling about 20 kt of north-northwesterly shear and is\r\nin an environment of fairly dry mid-level air.  The shear is\r\nexpected to lessen some during the next day or so before it\r\nincreases again from the west in 48-72 hours, at which time the\r\ncyclone will begin to move over slightly lower SSTs.  Therefore, a\r\nlittle strengthening is possible during the next day or two before\r\nthe environment becomes more hostile.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nlies on the low side of the guidance, and is similar to the previous\r\none.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northward, or 005 degrees, at about 8 kt.\r\nA deep-layer trough to the northwest of the system should cause\r\nFred to turn northeastward and increase its forward speed during\r\nthe next day or two.  After that time, the trough is expected to\r\nflatten, and that should allow Fred to turn eastward and then\r\nsoutheastward by the end of the forecast period.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is a little faster than the previous one, trending toward\r\nthe latest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that an alternate scenario, provided by the\r\nECMWF model, is that circulation of Fred could open up into a trough\r\nwhen it interacts with the nearby frontal system during the next day\r\nor two.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 25.7N  43.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 27.0N  42.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 28.8N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 30.2N  38.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 31.4N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 32.8N  34.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 32.9N  31.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 31.5N  31.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Fred","Adv":32,"Date":"2015-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062015\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nHigh-resolution visible satellite imagery indicates that the\r\nlow-level circulation had become elongated and ill-defined.  This\r\nis further reinforced by a 37 GHz GCOM microwave image showing\r\nthat the system lacks a well-defined center.  Therefore, Fred is\r\nno longer a tropical cyclone and advisories are being discontinued.\r\n\r\nThe disturbance should continue on a general north-northeastward\r\nheading until it completely loses its identity in a day or so.\r\n\r\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 26.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and ship observations indicate that the\r\ndisturbance south of the Cape Verde Islands has become better\r\norganized, and is now Tropical Depression Seven. The convection is\r\nnot very deep at this time, but animation of visible images show a\r\ngood circulation. In fact, earlier microwave data clearly depict a\r\nmid-level center associated with the developing depression. Based on\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, the\r\ninitial intensity has been set at 30 kt. No ASCAT data were\r\navailable at the time of this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening\r\nduring the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global\r\nmodels forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt\r\nany additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will\r\nweaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280\r\ndegrees at 12 kt. A moderately strong subtropical ridge is centered\r\nnorth of the depression. This pattern calls for a continuation of\r\na general westward track for the next 3 days.  After that time,\r\nthe ridge is expected to weaken, and the cyclone will likely turn\r\nmore toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed.\r\nThis is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not\r\nacknowledge the existence of a cyclone.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 12.3N  25.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 12.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 12.8N  29.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 13.0N  32.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 13.5N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 14.5N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 15.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 15.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern has gradually increased in\r\norganization since the last advisory. A band over the southwestern\r\nportion of the circulation has taken more shape, with cloud tops\r\ncooling slightly during the last several hours. Microwave and\r\nconventional satellite imagery also suggest that some inner-core\r\nstructural organization has already developed. Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates were T2.5/ 35 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, so the\r\ninitial intensity estimate is 35 kt.\r\n\r\nLarge-scale conditions should be conducive for some intensification\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours, with the depression embedded in an\r\nenvironment of light easterly shear and over warm SSTs.  The one\r\ncaveat is that a general drying of the lower to middle troposphere\r\nin the near-storm environment is forecast, possibly due to\r\nincreasing subsidence, which could squelch additional strengthening.\r\nAfter 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to encounter westerly flow\r\naloft associated with an enhanced upper-level trough extending from\r\nnear the Antilles to the eastern tropical Atlantic.  This pattern\r\nshould produce enough vertical shear to cause weakening or possibly\r\neven dissipation by day 4 or 5 of the forecast.  The new intensity\r\nforecast shows slightly greater intensification in the short term\r\nrelative to the previous one, with a peak in 36 hours, and\r\ngreater weakening at the end of the forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/12.  A low- to mid-level ridge\r\nover the subtropical Atlantic should keep the cyclone on a westward\r\nto west-northwestward track throughout the forecast period.  The\r\nnew track forecast is faster than the previous one, especially at\r\nthe extended range, and on the south side of guidance envelope in\r\nbest agreement with the FSU Superensemble and ECMWF model solution.\r\nThis makes intuitive sense, since a weaker system would likely track\r\nfarther south and move faster.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 12.6N  26.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 12.9N  28.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 13.2N  30.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 13.5N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 13.9N  36.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 14.8N  42.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 15.1N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 15.7N  53.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nMost of the deep convection associated with Grace is located west\r\nand southwest of the estimated center position, consistent with\r\nlight-to-moderate easterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by\r\nUW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 35 kt\r\nbased on the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Grace\r\nwill be moving over warm waters and in a low shear environment for\r\nthe next 24 to 36 hours, which should support some strengthening.\r\nAfter that time, the shear becomes westerly and increases with the\r\ncyclone moving over slightly cooler waters. As a result, much of the\r\nintensity guidance suggests that Grace will weaken later in the\r\nperiod, with dissipation also possible. The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and is close to the latest\r\nIVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/12. Grace should continue moving\r\ngenerally westward to west-northwestward to the south of a\r\nsubtropical ridge for the next several days. The track model\r\nguidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is\r\nsome variability in forward speed. The new NHC track forecast is\r\nan update of the previous one and lies a little south of the\r\nconsensus given that Grace is forecast to be weaker by the end\r\nof the period. This track is close to the latest predictions from\r\nthe GFS model and the FSU Superensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 12.8N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 13.0N  29.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 13.3N  32.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 13.6N  35.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 14.1N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 14.8N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 15.3N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 16.0N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has become better organized during the past several\r\nhours, with a more pronounced curved band developing to the west\r\nand south of the center.  Recent microwave imagery, especially a\r\n0331 UTC GCOM pass, showed a surprisingly well-organized inner core,\r\nwith the low-level center located a little farther south than\r\nprevious estimates.  Subjective Dvorak estimates are T3.0/45 kt from\r\nTAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore\r\nraised to 40 kt.  If Grace is as well organized as suggested by the\r\nmicrowave data, this intensity could be conservative.\r\n\r\nWith the slight southward adjustment of the initial position, the\r\nestimated motion is now 270/11 kt.  Grace is located due south of a\r\nmid-tropospheric anticyclone, and a ridge axis extends westward\r\nacross the Atlantic to north of the Lesser Antilles.  This pattern\r\nis expected to change little during the forecast period, which\r\nshould keep Grace on a general westward path through day 5.  The\r\nguidance is in generally good agreement, and the updated NHC track\r\nis shifted a little bit south of the previous forecast, mainly to\r\naccount for the adjusted initial position.  This solution is a\r\nbit south of the TVCN model consensus and leans closest to the\r\nGFS, HWRF, and the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nGrace will be moving through a low-shear environment for the next\r\n36 to 48 hours, which is likely to support additional strengthening\r\nwhile it moves westward over the tropical eastern Atlantic.\r\nBetween days 3 through 5, while Grace is moving over the central\r\ntropical Atlantic, vertical shear is forecast to increase to over\r\n20 kt and veer from southwesterly to westerly by the end of the\r\nforecast period.  Such a hostile environment should induce weakening\r\nbeginning on day 3.  The new NHC intensity forecast indicates\r\ncontinued gradual strengthening through 36 hours while the shear is\r\nlow and shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous\r\nforecast.  Weakening could be fast once the shear sets in, and the\r\nday 4 and 5 intensities are unchanged from before.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 12.4N  28.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 12.6N  30.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 12.8N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 13.1N  36.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 13.4N  39.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 14.0N  44.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 14.5N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 15.5N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the storm has changed little in organization\r\nover the past several hours.  There are fairly well-defined curved\r\nbands over both the northern and southern portions of the\r\ncirculation.  The deep convection is not very impressive, however,\r\nwith a limited amount of cold cloud tops and there is a dry slot in\r\nthe western semicircle.  The current intensity is kept at 40\r\nkt, which is the average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\nOver the next 1 to 2 days, Grace is forecast to move through a low\r\nvertical wind shear environment with sea surface temperatures\r\nsufficiently warm for strengthening. Thereafter, the tropical\r\ncyclone should be encountering increasing west-southwesterly shear\r\nassociated with a large upper-tropospheric trough over the eastern\r\nCaribbean Sea.  So, whereas intensification is probable in the short\r\nterm, Grace is likely to weaken later in the forecast period. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is\r\nslightly above the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nVisible satellite fixes indicate that the westward motion\r\ncontinues.  The steering scenario appears to be straightforward.\r\nGrace should remain situated to the south of a subtropical ridge,\r\nand embedded in mid- to low-level easterly flow throughout the\r\nforecast period.  The track guidance is in good agreement on a\r\ncontinued westward motion for the next 5 days, and the NHC forecast\r\nis close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 12.9N  29.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 13.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 13.3N  34.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 13.6N  37.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 13.8N  40.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 14.3N  45.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 15.0N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 15.5N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nGrace is a fairly well-organized, compact tropical cyclone with\r\nbanding features and well-defined upper-level outflow to the north\r\nand south of the system.  Deep convection has been rather limited\r\ntoday, but recent imagery shows some cold cloud tops developing near\r\nthe center. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in agreement with\r\na subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB. Since the vertical wind\r\nshear is expected to remain modest for the next 24 hours or so,\r\nthere is window of opportunity for short-term strengthening.  Within\r\n36 hours, the dynamical guidance shows the shear increasing to over\r\n20 kt, and this should cause a weakening trend beginning around that\r\ntime.  The official intensity forecast is a little above the model\r\nconsensus for the first half of the period and close to, or a little\r\nbelow, the consensus thereafter. It is worth noting that the GFS\r\nshows significant weakening of the cyclone in 4 to 5 days, with the\r\nECMWF showing dissipation by that time.\r\n\r\nThe storm has accelerated a bit and is now moving at about 280/13.\r\nFor the next several days, Grace should continue to move within a\r\nmoderate low- to mid-level easterly flow on the south side of the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  The track guidance models are noticeably faster\r\nthan they were on the previous cycle, so the official forecast is\r\nadjusted accordingly.  The NHC track is not far from the latest\r\ndynamical model consensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 13.2N  31.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 13.3N  33.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 13.6N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 13.9N  39.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 14.3N  42.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 15.0N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 16.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 17.0N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nA partial ASCAT-B overpass at 2346 UTC, along with several passive\r\nmicrowave passes, indicates that Grace has a well-developed, compact\r\nlow-level circulation that extends upward into the mid-levels of\r\nthe cyclone. However, both conventional and microwave imagery also\r\nindicate that the inner-core convection has been significantly\r\ndisrupted by the entrainment of dry mid-level air into the western\r\nand southern quadrants of the circulation, and has penetrated into\r\nthe cyclone's center. The initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be\r\ngenerous, is based on Dvorak current intensity estimates of T3.0/45\r\nkt from both TAFB and SAB, which is supported by a 40-kt ASCAT-B\r\nwind vector.\r\n\r\nGrace's motion continues to be 280/13 kt. The small tropical cyclone\r\nis expected to move a little north of due west throughout the\r\nforecast period due to moderate low- to mid-level easterly flow on\r\nthe south side of a large subtropical ridge located to the north\r\nof Grace. The NHC model guidance is tightly packed around the\r\nprevious advisory track, so the new forecast is just an update and\r\nextension of the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus\r\nmodel, TVCN.\r\n\r\nGrace's fairly robust circulation should be able to mix out any dry\r\nair intrusions for the next 24 hours or so while the vertical wind\r\nshear remains low and, therefore, a return of inner-core deep\r\nconvection is expected later tonight. Shortly after that time,\r\nhowever, the vertical shear is forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels to increase to 25-30 kt from a westerly direction and for the\r\nmid-level humidity to decrease to near 40 percent, a combination\r\nthat will halt any intensification and induce a steady weakening\r\ntrend despite warm SSTs of near 28 deg C beneath the cyclone. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is a little below the previous advisory\r\nforecast, and is similar to the intensity consensus model, IVCN. It\r\nis worth noting that the GFS and ECMWF models show significant\r\nweakening of the cyclone in 4 to 5 days, with possible dissipation\r\noccurring by 120 h.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 13.3N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 13.5N  34.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 13.8N  37.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 14.0N  40.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 14.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 15.3N  50.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 16.1N  56.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 17.2N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has redeveloped near the center of Grace overnight,\r\nand an earlier SSMI microwave overpass showed that the convection\r\nwas organized in a couple of bands around the center.  There are\r\nindications in geostationary satellite imagery that the shear is\r\nbeginning to increase as the cirrus outflow has become restricted\r\nover the western portion of the system.  The initial wind speed\r\nremains 45 kt, which is in agreement with subjective Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Little change in\r\nstrength is expected today.  Environmental conditions are forecast\r\nto become less favorable by tonight as westerly vertical wind shear\r\nincreases and dry mid-level air over the tropical Atlantic impinges\r\non the circulation.  The shear is forecast to increase to 20-30 kt\r\nby late Tuesday, and weakening is expected to begin by that time.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is close to the LGEM model and the\r\nintensity consensus.  Given the strong southwesterly upper-level\r\nwinds expected near the eastern Caribbean late in the period, it is\r\nquite possible that Grace will degenerate to a tropical wave\r\nbefore it reaches the Lesser Antilles.\r\n\r\nGrace continues to move westward or 275/14 kt.  The tropical\r\ncyclone is forecast to move generally westward to the south of a\r\nlarge mid- to upper-level ridge over the central Atlantic. The\r\nmodel guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC\r\nforecast is once again essentially an update of the previous NHC\r\nadvisory.  The new track forecast is close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 13.5N  33.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 13.7N  36.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 13.9N  39.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 14.2N  42.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 14.7N  45.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 15.5N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 16.2N  57.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 16.8N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nGrace's cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat this morning, with\r\nthe deep convection becoming fragmented and banding features less\r\nevident than they were yesterday.  The initial intensity is\r\nadjusted downward to 40 kt in agreement with data from a recent\r\nASCAT overpass, and in line with the latest subjective Dvorak\r\nestimates from SAB and TAFB.  An upper-level trough to the northwest\r\nof the tropical cyclone is producing some west-southwesterly\r\nvertical shear on Grace.  The SHIPS model indicates that the shear\r\nwill increase over the next several days, which should inhibit\r\nstrengthening.  The official intensity forecast calls for little\r\nchange in strength during the next couple of days followed by\r\ngradual weakening.  Grace is expected to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow by the end of the forecast period.  This is similar to the\r\nintensity model consensus, IVCN, but given the current state of the\r\nsystem, Grace could weaken faster than indicated here.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving a little more quickly toward the west this\r\nmorning, and the motion estimate is 275/15 kt.  For the next several\r\ndays, Grace will continue to be steered by the low- to mid-level\r\nflow to the south of the subtropical ridge.  The GFS and ECMWF\r\nglobal models show a rather brisk westward motion, perhaps partially\r\nbecause the system opens up into a wave in the model predictions.\r\nThe official forecast is a bit faster than the previous one and\r\nclose to the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 13.7N  35.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 13.9N  38.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 14.1N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 14.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 14.9N  48.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 15.5N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 16.3N  61.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 17.0N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Grace has been waning today, and\r\nbanding features are not evident.  In fact, if the convection does\r\nnot make a comeback soon, the system will be too weak to classify\r\nusing the Dvorak technique.  The current intensity is held at 40\r\nkt, mainly based on the winds from an earlier ASCAT overpass.\r\nWesterly shear on Grace is forecast to increase over the next\r\ncouple of days, but assuming that the convection will make at least\r\na little comeback, the system is forecast to maintain tropical storm\r\nintensity for a day or two.  This is consistent with the latest\r\nintensity model consensus.  The new NHC intensity forecast shows a\r\nmuch sooner degeneration to a remnant low, compared to the previous\r\nadvisory. Clearly, Grace could dissipate much sooner than shown\r\nhere.\r\n\r\nThe storm continues its rapid westward motion, even a little faster\r\nthan earlier.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Grace\r\nshould maintain a swift motion toward the west or slightly north of\r\nwest over the next few days.  The official track forecast remains\r\nclose to the latest dynamical model consensus.  This is not quite\r\nas fast as the ECMWF, but that model opens the system up into a\r\nwave within 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radii have been modified, based on earlier\r\nscatterometer data that showed a lack of winds to tropical storm\r\nforce over the southern semicircle of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 14.0N  37.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 14.1N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 14.3N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 14.7N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 15.2N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nAfter being devoid of any significant convection near the center for\r\nalmost 6 hours, a small burst of deep convection with cloud tops\r\ncolder than -80 deg C has developed since 0000 UTC just south of and\r\nover the previously exposed low-level circulation center. This\r\nrecent convective development is the reason for keeping Grace as a\r\n35-kt tropical storm. This intensity is supported by a Dvorak\r\ncurrent intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and a couple of\r\n32-kt ASCAT-B wind vectors.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/17 kt. There is essentially no\r\nchange to the previous forecast reasonings over the past couple of\r\ndays. Grace is expected to gradually weaken and become more\r\nvertically shallow, and be steered quickly westward by the moderate\r\nlow-level easterly trade wind flow on the south side of a deep-layer\r\nridge. The official track forecast is just an update and extension\r\nof the previous advisory track, and lies close to the dynamical\r\nmodel consensus, TVCA.\r\n\r\nWith increasing southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear and an\r\nabundance of dry mid-level air ahead of Grace, steady weakening is\r\nexpected due to these hostile environmental conditions. The only\r\nsaving grace is the cyclone's robust low-level circulation, which\r\ncould force periodic bursts of deep convection for the next 24 hours\r\nor so, similar to the most recent convective development. However,\r\nby 36 hours and beyond, westerly shear in excess of 25 kt should\r\ncause the circulation to weaken significantly due to less frequent\r\nand shorter duration convective bursts. Degeneration into a remnant\r\nlow is expected by 48 hours, followed by dissipation in 96 hours.\r\nHowever, dissipation could occur sooner, similar to the ECMWF model\r\nsolution. The new NHC intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN\r\nconsensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 14.0N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 14.1N  41.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 14.3N  45.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 14.7N  48.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 15.1N  51.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 16.0N  58.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Grace","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nThe deep convection that developed during the evening hours has\r\nexpanded in coverage overnight, but very little banding or overall\r\norganization of the thunderstorm activity exists.  The initial wind\r\nspeed remains 35 kt, which is supported by a TAFB subjective Dvorak\r\nintensity estimate and a UW/CIMSS ADT current intensity number.  The\r\nintensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory.  Increasing southwesterly to westerly vertical wind shear\r\nand dry mid-level air along the forecast track should cause Grace to\r\nweaken during the next few days.  Grace is forecast to weaken to a\r\ntropical depression later today, and become a remnant low within\r\nthe next couple of days.  The system is expected to degenerate to a\r\ntrough by the time it reaches the eastern Caribbean.  Given the fast\r\nmotion of the system and the expected hostile conditions, this could\r\noccur much sooner than shown in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 275/17 kt. Grace or its remnant\r\nis forecast to continue moving quickly westward to the south of a\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge that is over the central Atlantic.  The\r\nmodel guidance is again tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 14.1N  41.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 14.2N  43.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 14.5N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 14.9N  50.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 15.3N  54.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 16.3N  60.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Grace","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nAfter the overnight burst of deep convection, thunderstorm activity\r\nhas diminished and the overall cloud pattern remains disorganized.\r\nData from a recent ASCAT overpass show that Grace's maximum winds\r\nhave decreased to near 30 kt, so the system is being downgraded to\r\na tropical depression on this advisory.  The cyclone is forecast\r\nto move through an environment of increasing vertical shear and dry\r\nmid-level air for the next few days.  These unfavorable factors\r\nshould cause the system to weaken further, and to degenerate\r\ninto a remnant low pressure area over the next day or two.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is\r\nslightly below the latest intensity model consensus.  It is\r\npossible that Grace could open up into a wave during the next few\r\ndays, as indicated by the global models.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone continues to move westward at a fairly rapid pace, with\r\nthe motion estimate remaining at 275/17 kt.  The steering pattern\r\nis expected to remain uncomplicated.  Grace or its remnant should\r\ncontinue to move west or slightly north of west, to the south of\r\na low- to mid-level subtropical ridge throughout the forecast\r\nperiod.  The official track forecast is an update of the previous\r\none and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 14.3N  42.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 14.4N  45.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 14.8N  48.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 15.3N  52.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 15.8N  55.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 16.6N  62.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Grace","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nA new burst of deep convection has occurred over the southern\r\nsemicircle but, like the previous one, it lacks any banding\r\nfeatures.  The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is a blend\r\nof the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Grace could\r\ncontinue to produce intermittent bursts of convection over the next\r\nday or two.  However, it will be moving through an environment of\r\nincreasing vertical shear and dry mid-level air over the next\r\nseveral days.  This should cause weakening, and the system is likely\r\nto become a remnant low in 36 hours if not sooner.  There is also\r\nthe possibility of the cyclone opening up into a wave during the\r\nforecast period, which is what the GFS and ECMWF models have been\r\ndepicting in their recent runs.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion continues westward, or 275/16 kt.  No changes\r\nare evident in the steering scenario for the next 3 days.  A low-\r\nto mid-level subtropical ridge should continue to provide a brisk\r\neasterly steering current for Grace or its remnants.  The\r\ndynamical track guidance has been in very close agreement for the\r\npast couple of days.  The official forecast is close to the\r\ndynamical model consensus and is basically and update of the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nThe center of Grace should pass very near NOAA data buoy 41041 in a\r\ncouple of hours, which should provide useful data about the tropical\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 14.4N  44.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 14.6N  46.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 15.0N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 15.5N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 16.8N  63.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Grace","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nGrace continues to produce disorganized bursts of convection near\r\nand south of the low-level center, and a recent ASCAT-B overpass\r\nshows that the cyclone still has a closed circulation.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 30 kt based on satellite intensity estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB, although the scatterometer data suggests this could be\r\na little generous.  The cyclone is likely to produce intermittent\r\nbursts of convection over the next day or two.  However, it is\r\nmoving through an environment of dry mid-level air and westerly\r\nvertical shear that is forecast to increase to 25-30 kt by 72\r\nhours - a combination that should cause further weakening. The new\r\nintensity forecast is unchanged from the previous forecast, calling\r\nfor Grace to become a remnant low in about 36 hours and to dissipate\r\ncompletely after 72 hours. There is a possibility, supported by most\r\nof the global models, that Grace could degenerate into an open wave\r\nbefore 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 275/16 kt.  A low- to mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge should continue to steer Grace or its remnants\r\nquickly westward until the system dissipates.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is again an update of the previous track and lies near the\r\ncenter of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 14.6N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 14.9N  48.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 15.3N  51.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 15.8N  55.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 16.3N  58.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 17.0N  65.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Grace","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nGrace is only producing a couple of small patches of disorganized\r\nconvection this morning.  An ASCAT-B overpass from several hours ago\r\nshowed that the circulation has become elongated from east to west,\r\nand is less defined than it was yesterday.  The scatterometer data\r\nalso showed that the maximum winds are around 25 kt, and NOAA buoy\r\n41041 has observed similar winds.  Based on these data, the initial\r\nwind speed is lowered to 25 kt, which is also close to the latest\r\nsatellite intensity estimates.  The depression continues to battle\r\nwest-southwesterly shear of about 20 kt and a fairly stable air\r\nmass. These conditions are expected to become even more hostile,\r\nwhich should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low or\r\nbecome a trough within the next day or two before it reaches the\r\nLesser Antilles. This scenario is supported by nearly all of the\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nThe center of Grace appears to be located a little to the south\r\nof the previous track, and the initial motion estimate is due\r\nwestward, or 270 degrees, at 15 kt. Grace, or its remnant, is\r\nexpected to continue moving westward at about the same speed until\r\nit dissipates in a few days or less. The new NHC track forecast is a\r\nlittle south of the previous one, based mainly on the more southward\r\ninitial position, and lies near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 14.3N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N  49.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 14.9N  53.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 15.4N  56.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 15.9N  60.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Grace","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072015\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nData from the Rapidscat instrument onboard the International Space\r\nStation showed that there were no longer any westerly surface winds\r\nin Grace.  This was confirmed by animation of high-resolution\r\nvisible imagery that showed no westerly low-cloud motions.  Since\r\nGrace has opened up into a wave, this is the last advisory.\r\n\r\nThe wave should continue moving rapidly toward the west, and it\r\ncould produce some gusty winds and showers over portions of the\r\nLesser Antilles within a couple of days.\r\n\r\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\r\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 14.5N  49.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-09 16:30:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n1230 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nA recent ASCAT-B overpass indicates that the low pressure area\r\neast-southeast of Bermuda has developed a well-defined circulation\r\nwith winds of at least 30 kt in the northeastern quadrant.  In\r\naddition, a strong cluster of convection has been persisting in the\r\neastern quadrant.  Based on these developments, advisories are\r\nbeing initiated on Tropical Depression Eight.  It should be noted\r\nthat the system has a large radius of maximum winds more\r\ncharacteristic of a subtropical cyclone.  However, data from the\r\nFSU phase space analysis and the strong convection suggest the\r\nsystem is more tropical than subtropical.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is currently nearly stationary.  A northward motion\r\nshould begin on Wednesday as a deep layer trough moves into the\r\neastern United States and weakens the subtropical ridge.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to enter the westerlies and turn toward the\r\nnortheast after 48 hours, with this motion continuing until\r\ndissipation.  The forecast track lies in the center of the track\r\nguidance envelope in good agreement with the various consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nAn upper-level trough just west of the cyclone is currently\r\nproviding upper-level difluence, and this is likely enhancing the\r\nconvection.  The dynamical models forecast the cyclone to become\r\nembedded in about 15 kt of southerly vertical wind shear on the\r\neast side of the trough.  While there is dry air entraining into\r\nthe cyclone, the environment should allow for some slow\r\nstrengthening through 72 hours while the system remains over warm\r\nwater.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for strengthening in best\r\nagreement with a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.  After 72\r\nhours, the cyclone is expected to merge with a frontal system and\r\nlose its identity by 120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0430Z 30.8N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 30.8N  61.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 31.6N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 33.4N  61.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 36.0N  62.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 43.0N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 48.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the\r\nlast several hours.  The system remains sheared with the low-level\r\ncenter located to the west of the main area of deep convection.\r\nThe initial intensity is maintained at 30 kt based on the steady\r\nstate nature of the system since the earlier scatterometer data.\r\nThe current shear of about 20 kt from the west-southwest is expected\r\nto continue through the day, therefore, only slow strengthening is\r\nexpected during that time.  The shear is anticipated to lessen in\r\n24-48 hours, which could provide a better opportunity for\r\nstrengthening before the cyclone crosses the north wall of the Gulf\r\nStream current in 2-3 days.  The cyclone is expected to lose\r\ntropical characteristics by 72 hours when it is forecast to be over\r\nsea surface temperatures below 20 deg C. The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis similar to the previous one and lies near the middle of the\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been nearly stationary since the previous\r\nadvisory.  A northward motion is expected to begin later today and\r\nthen increase in forward speed during the next couple of days as a\r\ndeep layer trough moves eastward toward the system.  The cyclone is\r\nforecast to become embedded in strong mid-latitude flow in a few\r\ndays, causing it to accelerate and turn northeastward and then\r\neastward. Only small changes were made to the previous track\r\nforecast, and it lies near the consensus aids.  The latter part of\r\nthe track forecast excludes the GFS, which dissipates the system\r\nbefore it becomes extratropical.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 30.9N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 31.3N  61.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 32.5N  61.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 34.7N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 37.7N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 44.5N  56.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 48.5N  42.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/0600Z 48.0N  22.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression remains sheared, with the low-level center located\r\njust to the west of the western edge of the main area of deep\r\nconvection.  The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt, which is in\r\nagreement with a Dvorak classification from SAB.  The vertical\r\nshear over the depression, which is currently near 20 kt, is\r\nforecast to diminish in 24 to 48 hours.  Therefore strengthening\r\nseems likely until the cyclone passes north of the Gulf Stream.\r\nBy 72 hours, the system is forecast to be over water temperatures\r\nnear 17 deg C, so it should be extratropical by that time.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been meandering this morning and the current\r\nmotion estimate is an east-southeastward drift, or 120/3 kt.  Over\r\nthe next couple of days, a mid-level high is forecast to build to\r\nthe east and northeast of the tropical cyclone while a shortwave\r\ntrough moves into the northeastern United States.  This should\r\nresult in a northward motion at an increasing forward speed\r\nbeginning within 12 hours.  After 48 hours, the system should turn\r\nto the right and move within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is east of the previous one, but in good\r\nagreement with the latest dynamical model consensus.  An\r\nalternative scenario, shown by the GFS, is for the system to become\r\nabsorbed by an extratropical cyclone centered near New England in a\r\ncouple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 30.7N  60.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 31.4N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 33.0N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 35.5N  61.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 38.8N  60.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 46.0N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 48.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/1200Z 48.0N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern has not become better organized so\r\nfar today, and the low-level center is exposed a short distance to\r\nthe west-southwest of the main area of deep convection.  The deep\r\nconvection itself is not well organized, with scant evidence of\r\nbanding features.  Final data T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support\r\nkeeping the intensity at 30 kt.  The vertical wind shear over the\r\nsystem, which is currently near 20 kt from the southwest, is\r\npredicted by the global models to relax somewhat over the next\r\n24 to 48 hours.  This would allow for some strengthening, as\r\nindicated in the official forecast.  By 72 hours, the cyclone\r\nshould be located over cold waters and the global models depict it\r\nas embedded within a baroclinic zone.  Therefore the system is\r\nforecast to be extratropical around that time.\r\n\r\nThe depression is still drifting east-southeastward or 115/3 kt.\r\nOver the next couple of days, a mid-level ridge is predicted to\r\nbuild to the east and northeast of the cyclone while a trough\r\ndrops into the eastern United States.  This evolution of the\r\nsteering pattern should cause the cyclone to move northward at an\r\nincreasing forward speed into Friday.  Afterwards, the flow ahead\r\nof the trough should cause the system to turn eastward at an even\r\nfaster forward speed within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical\r\nguidance suite.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 30.6N  60.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 31.9N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 33.9N  61.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 36.9N  60.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 40.7N  59.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 47.0N  51.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 48.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  14/1800Z 48.0N  18.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nRecently received ASCAT-B scatterometer data showed an area of 35-40\r\nkt wind vectors in the convection about 75-100 n mi east of the\r\ncenter. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to a\r\npossibly conservative 35 kt and the cyclone is upgraded to a\r\ntropical storm. Despite the upgrade, Henri remains a disorganized\r\nsystem, with the low-level center remaining exposed to the west of\r\nthe convection due to 15-20 kt of shear.  In addition, microwave\r\nsatellite data and experimental European multispectral satellite\r\nimagery suggest a tongue of dry air is entraining into the cyclone\r\naround the west, south, and southeast sides of the circulation.\r\n\r\nHenri has started its expected northward track with the initial\r\nmotion of 355/4.  For the next 36-48 hours, the cyclone should move\r\ngenerally northward with an increase in forward speed between the\r\nsubtropical ridge to the east and a deep-layer trough moving\r\neastward through the eastern United States.  After that time, Henri\r\nshould turn northeastward and eastward as it enters the westerlies.\r\nThe new forecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies\r\na little south of the center of the guidance envelope after 36 hours\r\ndue to a northward shift in the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models suggest that the shear should subside during\r\nthe next 36-48 hours, and that the dry air entrainment should also\r\ndecrease.  This combination should allow Henri to strengthen until\r\nit reaches colder sea surface temperatures north of the Gulf Stream\r\nin a little under 48 hours.  After that, the cyclone is expected to\r\nbecome extratropical as it merges with a frontal system.  The new\r\nintensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near 50 kt in 36-48\r\nhours, followed by gradual weakening.  The first 48 hours are in\r\nbest agreement with the SHIPS model, and the intensities after\r\nextratropical transition are based on input from the NOAA Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 31.3N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 32.8N  60.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 35.3N  60.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 38.6N  60.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 42.4N  58.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 47.5N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 47.5N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/0000Z 47.0N  17.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the cloud pattern of Henri since\r\nthe previous advisory.  The tropical storm remains sheared with the\r\nlow-level center displaced to the west of the main area of deep\r\nconvection.  The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, which could\r\nbe conservative based on the earlier scatterometer data.  This\r\nintensity estimate is on the high side of the latest Dvorak\r\nanalyses.\r\n\r\nHenri is currently being affected by 15-20 kt of west-southwesterly\r\nwind shear and dry air has wrapped around the west and south sides\r\nof the circulation.  The shear is expected to lessen later today,\r\nand that could allow Henri to gain some strength. However,\r\nsignificant intensification is not expected as the cyclone should\r\ncross the north wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours, where a\r\nsharp gradient in sea surface temperatures exist. Henri is forecast\r\nto lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days, when it is\r\nexpected to be over cold water.  Most of the guidance shows the\r\nextratropical low dissipating by day 5, and the NHC forecast\r\nfollows suit.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm has been moving erratically during the last\r\nseveral hours, but the general motion has been slowly northward.  A\r\nfaster northward motion is expected to begin later today and\r\ncontinue for the next 24 to 36 hours as a subtropical ridge\r\nstrengthens to the east of Henri.  After that time, an even faster\r\nnortheastward and then eastward motion is predicted when the cyclone\r\nbecomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The models are in\r\ngood agreement on this overall scenario, and little change was made\r\nto the previous track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be\r\npost-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 31.4N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 33.0N  61.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 35.9N  60.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 39.3N  59.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 43.0N  56.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 48.0N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 46.5N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 10 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Henri remains disorganized with most of the\r\nconvection sheared off to the east and northeast of the center.\r\nVisible images also indicate that the system has little organization\r\nin the central core, with multiple smaller vortices rotating around\r\na mean center.  The initial wind speed remains 35 kt, although some\r\nDvorak estimates suggest it could have weakened to a tropical\r\ndepression.\r\n\r\nSouthwesterly shear and dry air is currently limiting the amount of\r\ndeep convection near the center of the cyclone.  Global models,\r\nhowever, all weaken the shear later today, which could allow Henri\r\nto strengthen while it moves over warm waters before it crosses the\r\nnorth wall of the Gulf Stream in 36-48 hours.  Henri is still\r\nforecast to lose tropical characteristics in a little over 2 days\r\nand then weaken while it moves over very cold water with high\r\nshear.  The intensity guidance is in relatively good agreement on\r\nthis scenario and the NHC forecast is very close to the previous\r\none.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Henri is moving northward at about 8\r\nkt.  The storm should accelerate northward today and northeastward\r\ntomorrow as it encounters faster steering from the subtropical\r\nridge.  After that time, an even faster northeastward and then\r\neastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies.  There have been no significant changes\r\nto the guidance, and the NHC track forecast is basically just an\r\nupdate of the previous prediction.\r\n\r\nThe latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be\r\npost-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 32.6N  60.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 34.5N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 37.8N  60.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 41.4N  58.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 45.0N  53.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 49.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 45.5N  22.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015\r\n\r\nHenri continues to struggle with most of its deep convection well\r\nremoved to the northeast of the center.  In fact, it is taking on\r\nsome characteristics of a subtropical cyclone with recent\r\nscatterometer data indicating that the radius of maximum winds has\r\nincreased to a rather high value of 120 n mi.  The initial wind\r\nspeed will remain 35 kt on the basis of 30-35 kt winds observed in\r\npartial scatterometer pass that missed the area that likely\r\nhas the strongest winds.\r\n\r\nSoutherly shear is still forecast to relax overnight near Henri,\r\nwhich theoretically could result in intensification during the next\r\nday or so before the cyclone moves over cold water on Saturday.\r\nHowever, dry air aloft persists near the storm and the overall cloud\r\npattern is quite disorganized. The unfavorable factors are starting\r\nto outweigh the favorable conditions, so the official intensity\r\nforecast is reduced from the previous one, a little below the model\r\nconsensus.  Extratropical transition is expected within 2 days due\r\nto strong shear and very cold water.  A reasonable alternative\r\nsolution provided by some of the global models is that the cyclone\r\nstays weak and opens up into a trough during the day on Friday.\r\n\r\nHenri is moving faster to the north, now about 13 kt.  The storm\r\nshould continue to accelerate northward tonight and northeastward\r\ntomorrow due to it encountering faster steering from the subtropical\r\nridge.  After that time, an even faster northeastward and then\r\neastward motion is predicted when the cyclone becomes embedded in\r\nthe mid-latitude flow.   The guidance has trended to the left\r\nwith the track of Henri, perhaps due to a weaker forecast\r\nrepresentation of the storm.  The NHC forecast is shifted in that\r\ndirection, although remains on the right side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  If it survives, the cyclone should become absorbed by a\r\nlarger extratropical low by day 4 over the far North Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be\r\npost-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 33.9N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 36.1N  60.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 39.7N  59.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 43.5N  56.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 46.8N  51.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 48.5N  36.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 10 2015\r\n\r\nHenri has changed little in organization during the past several\r\nhours.  The system continues to have some characteristics of a\r\nsubtropical cyclone, with the convective banding and strongest\r\nwinds well away from the center in the northeastern semicircle.\r\nThe initial intensity remains 35 kt, as there has been no new\r\nscatterometer data from the area where the strongest winds are\r\nlikely occurring.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is northward or 005/12.  Henri should accelerate\r\nand turn to the northeast during the next 48 hours as it enters the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  After that time, a quick eastward motion\r\nis expected until the cyclone dissipates.  The new track forecast\r\nis an update of the previous forecast and is just to the right of\r\nthe various consensus models.\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear over Henri is diminishing, so there is a\r\nchance that the system could intensify a little before reaching cold\r\nwater north of the Gulf Stream in about 18 hours.  After that, the\r\nsystem should begin extratropical transition as it merges with a\r\nfrontal system, and this process is expected to be complete in about\r\n36 hours.  The cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical system between 72-96 hours.  An alternative scenario\r\nis that Henri could degenerate to a trough between 24-72 hours as\r\nindicated by several of the global models.\r\n\r\nThe latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be\r\npost-tropical, is based on guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 34.8N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 37.5N  60.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 41.2N  58.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 44.9N  54.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 47.6N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 48.0N  33.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015\r\n\r\nOverall, Henri's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized\r\nsince the last advisory.  While nearly all of the cyclone's deep\r\nconvection is still located well to the northeast of the center, a\r\nrelatively new convective burst over this area has grown in coverage\r\nand cloud tops have cooled.  Subjective Dvorak classifications\r\nremain below tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity held\r\nat 35 kt due to the cyclone's increasing forward speed and somewhat\r\nimproved satellite presentation.\r\n\r\nSoutherly shear appears to be diminishing over the cyclone, as has\r\nbeen forecast by the large-scale models.  The lower shear could\r\nallow for some additional intensification to take place during the\r\nnext 12 hours or so while it remains over warm-enough waters.\r\nHowever, the continued presence of dry air in the near-storm\r\nenvironment and Henri's disorganized appearance suggest that any\r\nintensification should be negligible. After the cyclone crosses the\r\nnorthern wall of the Gulf Stream in less than 18 hours,\r\nsubstantially lower sea surface temperatures and increasingly stable\r\nair should induce weakening soon after that.  A plausible alternate\r\nscenario, presented by some of the global models, is that Henri\r\ncould degenerate into a trough later today.  The cyclone or its\r\nremnants are forecast to undergo extratropical transition in about\r\n36 hours, with the system likely to be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical cyclone by 72 hours.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nvery similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 010/14.  Henri is expected to\r\naccelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the\r\nnext day or so as it encounters the fast-paced flow ahead of a deep\r\nlongwave trough digging into eastern North America and the western\r\nAtlantic. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants should then turn\r\neast-northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new track forecast\r\nis adjusted to the left of the previous forecast and lies on the\r\nright side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe latter part of this forecast, when the storm is expected to be\r\npost-tropical, is partially based on guidance provided by NOAA's\r\nOcean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 36.2N  60.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 39.0N  59.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 43.0N  56.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 46.5N  52.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 48.9N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Henri","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 11 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of\r\nHenri has become rather distorted this morning. Multiple low-level\r\nswirls can be seen in the circulation that is elongated from\r\nsoutheast to northwest, with some suggestion that the cyclone may no\r\nlonger be closed in the northwestern quadrant. The intensity is\r\nbeing held at 35 kt in agreement with the satellite estimate from\r\nTAFB.\r\n\r\nAlthough shear is somewhat lower over the cyclone, it appears that\r\nthe low-level structure is too poor to take advantage of the more\r\nfavorable environment. The intensity forecast has been lowered\r\na little to reflect the less conducive conditions. The cyclone or\r\nits remnants are forecast to undergo extratropical transition in\r\nabout 24 hours while moving over colder water with high shear,\r\nand the system is likely to be absorbed by a larger extratropical\r\ncyclone by 72 hours. An alternate scenario, one that is becoming\r\nmore likely, is that Henri could degenerate into a trough later\r\ntoday.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 020/17.  Henri is expected to\r\naccelerate north-northeastward and then northeastward during the\r\nnext day or so as it encounters increasing flow ahead of a deep\r\nlongwave trough digging into eastern North America and the western\r\nAtlantic. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants should then\r\nturn east-northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new track\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one and near or on the\r\nright side of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 38.0N  59.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 41.0N  57.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 44.9N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 48.0N  48.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 50.0N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Henri","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF HENRI DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082015\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 11 2015\r\n\r\nHenri is no longer a tropical cyclone.  Visible images clearly show\r\nthat Henri lacks a well-defined center, with scatterometer and\r\nsatellite data also suggesting the circulation has degraded into a\r\nsoutheast-to-northwest oriented trough.  The scatterometer did show\r\na small area of 35-kt winds, so that intensity is kept.\r\n\r\nThe remnants of Henri are expected to trek northeastward then\r\neastward over the North Atlantic and should transition into an\r\nextratropical low on Saturday.  Future information on this system\r\ncan be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\r\nService Ocean Prediction Center...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and\r\nWMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 40.0N  58.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS OF HENRI\r\n 12H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 16 2015\r\n\r\nOrganized convection associated with the area of low pressure in the\r\ncentral tropical Atlantic has now increased to the point that the\r\nsystem is considered a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is 25\r\nkt based on the latest Dvorak classifications and in agreement with\r\nearlier ASCAT wind data. Some southwesterly shear is already\r\naffecting the cyclone, with most of the convection displaced east\r\nand north of the estimated center position. The environment only\r\nbecomes less favorable from this point forward, with the shear\r\nforecast to quickly increase in 12 to 24 hours and remain high\r\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period. In addition, the\r\nsouthwesterly flow aloft will bring dry mid- to upper-level air over\r\nthe cyclone. As a result, only slight strengthening is shown in the\r\nNHC forecast following the trend of most of the intensity guidance.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to weaken to a remnant low by 72 hours.\r\nAfter that time, the GFS and ECMWF models show the system weakening\r\nand perhaps opening up into a trough in about 5 days, so the\r\nofficial forecast shows dissipation at that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 340/07, as the depression is moving\r\ninto a weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge. This north-\r\nnorthwestward to northwestward motion should continue for the next\r\n2 to 3 days, with a turn toward the west-northwest forecast by 96\r\nhours as the shallow cyclone comes under the steering influence of\r\nthe low-level trade wind flow. The NHC track forecast is close to\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope and near a blend of the GFS and\r\nECMWF forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 15.0N  43.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 16.0N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 17.3N  44.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 18.5N  44.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 19.7N  45.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 22.0N  47.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 24.0N  50.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the depression has degraded during\r\nthe past few hours, with dry air and southwesterly shear resulting\r\nin the convection become displaced from the low-level center. The\r\nconvection itself has not become better organized, and has a rather\r\nlinear shape to the east and northeast of the center. The initial\r\nintensity remains 25 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from\r\nSAB. The prospects for the cyclone to strengthen, or even survive,\r\nappear quite poor. The shear is forecast to increase markedly in the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours, and the shear in combination with dry air\r\nshould result in the cyclone weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours.\r\nThe NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by 5 days, in best\r\nagreement with the latest GFS forecast.\r\n\r\nThe exposed low-level center is located about a degree to the west\r\nof the previous advisory estimate, with an initial motion of\r\n310/07. The initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward\r\nadjustment to the track forecast this cycle of 1 to 2 degrees. The\r\nnew NHC forecast lies between the shallow BAM and to the left of\r\nthe rest of the model guidance in the short term given the sheared\r\nnature of the system and its current motion. After that time, the\r\nNHC forecast is close to the HWRF and GEFS ensemble mean and still\r\nleft of the multi-model consensus aids. Given the current\r\ndisorganized state of the depression, the track forecast is quite\r\nuncertain through the period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 15.2N  44.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 15.9N  45.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 17.0N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 18.0N  46.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 19.3N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 20.5N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 21.5N  52.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression continues to be sheared with the low-level center\r\nwell removed from the deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all\r\nagencies have decreased tonight, but still support an initial\r\nintensity of 25 kt. Most of the global models bring even stronger\r\nupper-level westerly winds over the cyclone, and this should result\r\nin weakening.  The depression could still produce intermittent\r\nbursts of convection near the center during the next day or so, but\r\nthe overall trend is for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low in\r\ntwo days or earlier.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center is difficult to locate on infrared images. The\r\nbest estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\r\n310 degrees at 6 kt, while embedded within light steering currents.\r\nSince the depression is becoming a shallow cyclone, it will likely\r\nbe steered toward the northwest and then west-northwest by the\r\nlow-level flow around the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is\r\nvery similar to the previous one, and is on the southern edge of the\r\nguidance envelope, leaning toward BAM shallow.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 15.8N  45.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 16.6N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 17.6N  45.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 18.8N  46.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 19.8N  47.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 21.0N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 22.0N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Nine continues to have a sheared appearance\r\nwith an area of strong convection located 75-100 n mi east of the\r\nlow-level center.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nhave increased to 30 kt, and reports from NOAA buoy 41041 indicate\r\nthat the center pressure has fallen below 1007 mb.  Based on these\r\ndata, the initial intensity is increased to 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe depression is located between a developing upper-level low to\r\nits northwest and a tropical disturbance to the southeast.  The\r\nglobal models are in poor agreement on how the depression will\r\ninteract with these systems, which makes for a low confidence\r\nintensity forecast.  The UKMET and Canadian models merge the\r\ndepression with the disturbance as the latter system intensifies.\r\nThe NAVGEM shows the depression surviving for several days as the\r\ndisturbance weakens.  The GFS weakens both the depression and the\r\ndisturbance while developing another low pressure area nearby.\r\nFinally, the ECMWF keeps the depression separate from the other\r\ndisturbance and forecasts it to survive for five days.  Even if the\r\ndepression and the disturbance do not merge, the upper-level low is\r\nlikely to cause 20-25 kt of shear over the depression for at least\r\n3-4 days.  The new intensity forecast follows the no merger scenario\r\nbut calls for no additional strengthening due to the shear.  The\r\ndepression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours\r\nand dissipate completely after 96 hours.\r\n\r\nAssuming that the depression and the disturbance do not merge, a\r\nweak low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should\r\nsteer it generally northwestward through the forecast period.  The\r\nnew forecast track is similar to the previous track, and it lies to\r\nthe south of the center of the guidance envelope between the\r\nconsensus models and the BAM shallow.  An alternative forecast\r\nscenario is that the depression could move erratically if it and\r\nthe disturbance get closer enough to try to merge.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 16.3N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 17.1N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 18.1N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 19.1N  47.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 20.0N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 21.0N  51.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 22.5N  53.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression can be seen in visible imagery exposed\r\nto the west of what remains of the deep convection, due to about\r\n25 kt of shear over the cyclone as indicated by UW-CIMSS satellite\r\nanalyses. The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on the latest\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The environmental conditions\r\nbecome even less favorable with time, with the shear forecast to\r\ncontinue while the cyclone moves into an increasingly dry\r\nenvironment. These factors should result in slow weakening, and the\r\nNHC forecast shows the depression becoming a remnant low by 36\r\nhours, with dissipation expected in 4 to 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial position of the depression is a little south of that\r\nfrom the previous advisory, as the partially decoupled low-level\r\ncirculation is moving northwestward at about 5 kt. The track\r\nforecast philosophy has not changed, as the weakening cyclone should\r\nmove generally northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours and then\r\nturn west-northwestward as a shallower system. The new NHC track is\r\nin best agreement with the GFS and shallow BAM and lies south of the\r\nmulti-model consensus. This forecast is similar to the previous\r\none updated for the initial position and motion. There are a couple\r\nof alternate scenarios, however. The depression or its remnants\r\ncould merge with the disturbance to its east as seen in the UKMET\r\nsolution or survive as its own entity a little longer as indicated\r\nby the latest ECMWF forecast. However, the NHC track forecast\r\ncontinues to favor a solution with a weakening cyclone that remains\r\nseparate from the disturbance to the east and dissipates by 5 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 16.1N  45.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 16.8N  45.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 17.8N  46.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 18.8N  47.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 19.5N  49.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 20.5N  51.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 22.0N  54.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression remains poorly organized, with the center still\r\nexposed to the west of the deep convection. A few bursts of\r\nconvection have been trying to redevelop closer to the center, but\r\nthe 20 to 25 kt of shear is keeping the convection more than a\r\ndegree from the center. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25\r\nkt based on ASCAT data from earlier today. The depression should\r\ncontinue to slowly spin down due to shear and dry air in the mid and\r\nupper levels. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in 24\r\nto 36 hours, although timing when deep convection will dissipate is\r\nhighly uncertain. The low-level circulation is forecast to dissipate\r\nin 4 to 5 days, in best agreement with the latest GFS forecast.\r\n\r\nThe motion of the center has been slow and erratic today, with an\r\nhas initial motion estimate of 005/03 reflecting a jog to the right\r\nduring the past few hours. All of the guidance, even the shallow\r\nBAM, is insistent on a turn back toward the northwest in the next 12\r\nto 24 hours, and that is reflected in the NHC track forecast.\r\nThrough 24 hours the NHC track is on the right side of the guidance\r\nto account for the initial motion. After that time, a gradual bend\r\ntoward the west-northwest is forecast as the shallow system becomes\r\nsteered by the low-level flow. Later in the period the NHC track is\r\nclose to the previous one adjusted for the initial position and\r\nmotion and is near the shallow BAMS and the GFS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 16.5N  44.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.2N  45.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 18.2N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 19.0N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 19.7N  49.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 20.7N  51.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 22.0N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression consists of a circulation of low clouds with a very\r\nsmall patch of deep convection to the north of the center. Based on\r\ncontinuity and a partial ASCAT pass, the initial intensity is kept\r\nat 25 kt. Given that 20 to 25 kt of shear and dry air are expected\r\nto continue in the vicinity of the depression, weakening is\r\nforecast, and the depression will likely become a remnant low in\r\nabout 12 hours or so.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes show a motion toward the north-northwest or 330\r\ndegrees at 6 kt. The depression has become a shallow cyclone,\r\nand the subtropical high is forecast to rebuild to the north.\r\nConsequently, the depression or the remnant low is forecast to turn\r\ntoward the northwest and then west-northwest. This turn to the left\r\nis the solution provided by most of the track models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 17.3N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 18.0N  45.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 19.7N  48.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 20.5N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 22.0N  53.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 23.0N  55.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015\r\n\r\nA burst of convection with cloud tops colder than -70C has\r\ndeveloped near and northeast of the center of Tropical Depression\r\nNine.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 25 kt,\r\nand that will be the initial intensity.  The depression continues\r\nto be in an environment of 25-30 kt of westerly vertical wind\r\nshear, and water vapor imagery shows mid- to upper-level dry air\r\nbeing advected into the system.  The dynamical models suggest these\r\nconditions should persist for at least 48 hours, and based on this\r\nthe depression is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure\r\narea in 24 hours or less.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 330/6.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of the depression is expected to steer it or its remnants\r\ngenerally northwestward for the next several days.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is similar to the previous track, with a little nudge toward\r\nthe south during the first 48 hours due to the initial position.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 17.6N  45.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 18.3N  46.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 19.2N  48.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 19.9N  49.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 20.7N  51.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 22.5N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 24.0N  56.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015\r\n\r\nAfter the burst of convection overnight, shear and dry air appear\r\nto be getting the best of the depression, with no deep convection\r\nremaining near the low-level center. If deep convection does not\r\nreturn, the depression could be declared a remnant low by tonight.\r\nWeakening is forecast as the depression and its remnant low\r\ngradually spin down and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nVisible imagery shows the low-level center has been moving toward\r\nthe west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 295/7. The\r\ninitial position and motion have resulted in a leftward shift of the\r\nNHC track forecast this cycle of about a degree. The NHC forecast\r\nshows the shallow cyclone moving generally west-northwestward\r\nthrough dissipation as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the\r\nnorth. The official forecast continues to favor the weaker models,\r\nsuch as the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean, on the left side of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 17.7N  47.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.2N  48.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 18.9N  49.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 19.6N  51.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 20.4N  52.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 21.5N  55.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has redeveloped north of the center of the\r\ndepression this afternoon, buying the system some more time as a\r\ntropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates. Given the unfavorable environment of shear\r\nand dry air, the system is still expected to become a remnant low in\r\n12 to 24 hours. After that time, the weakening low is expected to\r\nopen up into a trough as shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nforecasts.\r\n\r\nThe motion of the low-level center has been a little erratic during\r\nthe past few hours, but a long-term average yields a motion of\r\n300/05. A general west-northwestward motion driven by the\r\nlow-level ridge to the north is forecast until dissipation, in\r\nagreement with the GFS model. The new NHC track is similar to the\r\nprevious one adjusted for the initial position and motion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 18.0N  47.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 18.4N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 19.0N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 19.6N  51.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 20.2N  53.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015\r\n\r\nThere is little to add about the depression that has not been\r\nalready said, except that it is a resilient system. Satellite and\r\nbuoy data indicate that the depression has a well-defined cyclonic\r\ncirculation with winds of 25 kt, and is still producing bursts of\r\ndeep convection. Given the unfavorable shear environment surrounding\r\nthe depression, the NHC forecast insists on weakening, and calls for\r\nthe depression to become a remnant low on Saturday.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has been moving toward the west-northwest\r\nor 300 degrees at 8 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should\r\nkeep the depression on this general motion until dissipation in a\r\ncouple of days. No change in track or intensity from the previous\r\nforecast is necessary.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 18.3N  48.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 18.8N  49.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.4N  51.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 20.0N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 20.5N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Nine is\r\nbecoming less organized due to the ongoing 30-35 kt southwesterly\r\nshear.  The convection is weaker in both coverage and intensity than\r\nit was 24 hours ago, and the low-level circulation is losing\r\ndefinition.  The shear is expected to continue for at least the next\r\n48 hours, and based on this the depression is expected to degenerate\r\nto a remnant low pressure area in 24 hours or less.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/10.  The low- to mid-level subtropical\r\nridge north of the cyclone should steer it or its remnants toward\r\nthe west-northwest until the system dissipates completely in a\r\ncouple of days.  The new forecast track is an update of the\r\nprevious track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 18.5N  49.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 18.9N  50.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 19.5N  52.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 20.1N  53.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 20.9N  55.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery shows that the center of the depression\r\nis losing definition and becoming elongated. In addition, the\r\nsystem has been without organized convection since around 0700 UTC.\r\nGiven the continued influence of strong shear and dry air, the\r\nsystem is expected to become a remnant low within 12 hours or could\r\ndissipate as soon as later today if the center continues to lose\r\ndefinition.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has been slower over the past few hours, and the\r\ncurrent estimate is 285/05. The low- to mid-level subtropical ridge\r\nnorth of the cyclone should steer it or its remnants toward the\r\nwest-northwest until the system dissipates completely in the next 24\r\nto 36 hours. The new NHC track is close to the previous one adjusted\r\nfor the initial position and motion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 18.4N  49.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 18.8N  50.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 19.4N  52.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Nine","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015\r\n\r\nOrganized deep convection has been absent from the depression for\r\nmore than 12 hours, with Dvorak classifications of too weak to\r\nclassify at 12Z and 18Z. In addition, visible satellite imagery\r\nshows that the center of the depression has continued to become\r\nelongated today and is no longer well defined. As a result, the\r\nsystem is no longer a tropical cyclone and this will be the final\r\nadvisory. The remnants could continue to produce some intermittent\r\nbursts of convection during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe motion has been around 290/04 for the past few hours, and the\r\nremnants of the depression should continue to move generally\r\nwest-northwestward for the next couple of days. Additional\r\ninformation on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts\r\nissued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1\r\nand WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 18.8N  49.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF NINE\r\n 12H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that the area of low pressure over the\r\ntropical eastern Atlantic has acquired sufficient organization to be\r\nclassified as a tropical depression.  The low-level center appears\r\nembedded beneath a relatively small cluster of deep convection, but\r\nconvective banding is also increasing to the west and north.  The\r\ninitial intensity is set at 25 kt based on Dvorak estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB and recent ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nThe depression is located near the southwestern edge of a mid-level\r\nanticyclone, giving the cyclone an initial motion of 285/8 kt.  The\r\nanticyclone is expected to move westward in tandem with the\r\ndepression over the next couple of days, keeping it on a general\r\nwest-northwestward track for much of the forecast period.  By days 4\r\nand 5, however, there is significant uncertainty in the track\r\nforecast.  The GFS and GFDL show the cyclone feeling the influence\r\nof an amplifying deep-layer trough over the eastern Atlantic, which\r\nturns the depression northward.  The ECMWF and UKMET, on the other\r\nhand, keep the ridge as the dominant influence and continue a\r\nwest-northwestward motion.  Due to the large spread in the guidance,\r\nthe official forecast shows the cyclone slowing down considerably by\r\ndays 4 and 5, and is a little west of the model consensus aids at\r\nthose times.\r\n\r\nThe environment looks conducive for at least gradual strengthening\r\nduring the forecast period.  Sea surface temperatures are warm,\r\nvertical shear should remain generally low, and environmental\r\nmoisture patterns appear favorable for at least the next two days.\r\nBeyond 48 hours, most of the global models show the cyclone\r\nthreading the needle beneath a narrow upper-level ridge, with\r\nmid-level dry air possibly getting into the western part of the\r\ncyclone's circulation.  This pattern makes the intensity forecast\r\ncomplicated because hostile upper-level winds won't be too far away,\r\nand the ultimate strength of the cyclone will depend heavily on its\r\neventual track.  For now, the NHC official forecast shows only\r\ngradual strengthening through day 4, more or less in line with the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 13.1N  36.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 13.4N  37.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 14.2N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 15.2N  40.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 16.4N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 18.3N  46.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 19.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 20.0N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has continued to improve, with\r\nwell-defined convective banding wrapping around the center.  1800\r\nUTC Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB support tropical storm\r\nintensity, but since ASCAT data from earlier this morning only\r\nshowed 20 kt of wind in the inner core, the initial intensity is\r\nonly being raised to 30 kt for now.  Barring any unexpected\r\nchanges, the depression will likely be a tropical storm by this\r\nevening.  The environment appears generally conducive for gradual\r\nstrengthening during the next few days, but the global models\r\nshow that the cyclone will be located precariously beneath a narrow\r\nupper-level ridge, especially on days 3 through 5.  Even a slight\r\ndeviation from this pattern could put the cyclone in a higher-shear\r\nenvironment and thus limit intensification, or even induce\r\nweakening.  The NHC intensity forecast continues to show gradual\r\nstrengthening through the forecast period and is close to a\r\nconsensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 285/7 kt, with the depression being steered\r\nby a mid-level anticyclone to its northwest.  This anticyclone is\r\nexpected to move westward at the same pace as the depression during\r\nthe next few days, maintaining a west-northwestward motion through\r\n48 hours.  After that time, the steering currents are forecast to\r\ncollapse near the cyclone when a deep-layer trough amplifies over\r\nthe eastern Atlantic.  As a result, the models show very slow\r\nmotion occurring by days 4 and 5, and the updated NHC track\r\nforecast shows the cyclone becoming stationary at the end of the\r\nforecast period.  This forecast is largely unchanged from the\r\nprevious one and is near the middle of the tightly clustered\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 13.4N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 13.9N  38.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 14.9N  40.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 16.1N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 17.2N  44.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 19.5N  47.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 20.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 20.5N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern has been increasing in organization.\r\nA primarily convective band over the eastern half of the circulation\r\nhas been increasing in curvature and the cloud tops are cooling\r\nsignificantly. The initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt in\r\nagreement with the latest CI numbers from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS\r\nADT value.\r\n\r\nWesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough, extending\r\nfrom the eastern subtropical Atlantic into the eastern Caribbean,\r\ncould increase over Ida during the next day or so and slow the\r\ncyclone's rate of intensification.  Global models agree that a\r\nrelative reduction in the shear should occur in 2 to 3 days when a\r\npiece of the upper-level trough cuts off near the Greater Antilles,\r\nwhich could allow Ida to strengthen, perhaps even more than\r\nforecast.  Late in the forecast period, the uncertainty in the\r\nintensity forecast increases considerably, with the ECMWF calling\r\nfor more northwesterly shear and less favorable thermodynamic\r\nvariables in the storm's environment than in the GFS.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is only slightly higher than the previous one\r\nthrough 72 hours.  The forecast after that time is of low confidence\r\nand essentially levels Ida's intensity off in agreement with the\r\nSHIPS model output.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes suggest that the cyclone's motion has been more\r\nnorthwesterly (or 305/06) since earlier today.  Ida is being steered\r\nby east-southeasterly to southeasterly flow underneath a subtropical\r\nridge migrating westward with the cyclone, and some increase in\r\nforward speed is predicted by the models during the next day or so.\r\nIn about 48 hours, a deep-layer trough amplifying southwestward\r\nacross the eastern Atlantic will cause steering currents surrounding\r\nIda to collapse, which should result in the cyclone's forward motion\r\ncoming to a halt.  With increasing northerly or northwesterly flow\r\naloft, Ida should begin to meander in about 4 days and even\r\ndrift southward or southeastward by day 5.  The new track forecast\r\nis adjusted to the right some throughout the period, primarily due\r\nto the more northwesterly initial motion but also in the direction\r\nof the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 13.7N  37.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 14.7N  38.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 15.8N  40.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 16.9N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 18.1N  45.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 20.1N  47.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 20.7N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 20.3N  47.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall organization of Ida's cloud pattern continues to\r\nincrease.  Banding features are becoming more prominent in the\r\nsouthern part of the circulation, with a new band forming on the\r\nwest side.  In addition, a burst of convection has been ongoing\r\nduring the past few hours near the apparent center.  Satellite\r\nclassifications still support an intensity of 35 kt, and this value\r\nis used as the initial wind speed.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that the northwestward motion of Ida has\r\nsped up to 9 kt this morning.  A mid-level ridge is expected to\r\nremain the dominant steering mechanism for the next couple of days,\r\ncausing the storm to move to the west-northwest or northwest during\r\nthat time.  Models are in good agreement and only a slight\r\nnorthward adjustment was made to the official forecast then.  Beyond\r\n2 days, there is considerable uncertainty on how an amplifying\r\ntrough over the east-central Atlantic will affect Ida.  The cyclone\r\nseems likely to slow down due to steering currents collapsing, but\r\nthere is poor agreement on whether the trough will pick up Ida,\r\nsending the storm east-northeastward, or leave the storm behind. For\r\nexample, the normally reliable ECMWF and GFS models are going in\r\nopposite directions at day 5, with the ECMWF favoring a stronger\r\ntrough solution while the GFS has Ida missing the trough and\r\ndrifting westward.  With so much uncertainty, I have elected to show\r\na stationary Ida after day 3, preferring not to commit to\r\neither solution at this time. This forecast blends the previous\r\nforecast with the model consensus, although leans more heavily on\r\nthe former.\r\n\r\nWhile the shear near Ida is low for now, most of the global models\r\nshow an increase during the next day or so.  This is expected to\r\nsomewhat temper future strengthening, although since most of the\r\nother environmental factors are still favorable, a gradual\r\nintensification is forecast. The long-range intensity prediction,\r\nhowever, is very complex due to the potential interaction of the\r\ntrough, which yields very different shear profiles, along with dry\r\nair aloft and possible upwelling of cooler water as Ida moves\r\nslowly.  With the track more uncertain than average and these\r\nchallenging factors, it seems prudent to remain conservative with\r\nthe wind speed forecast. The official intensity forecast is close to\r\nthe previous one, which ends up on the low side of the guidance at\r\ndays 4/5.  It almost goes without saying that these conditions are\r\nleading me to have a rather low confidence in the intensity forecast\r\nat 72 hours and beyond.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 14.4N  38.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 15.3N  39.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 16.5N  42.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 17.6N  44.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 18.9N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 20.5N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 20.5N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 20.5N  47.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 19 2015\r\n\r\nAs was noted yesterday, Ida will have an obstacle course to navigate\r\nduring the next several days, and the storm already appears to have\r\nencountered its first hurdle.  Westerly shear, on the order of 20 kt\r\naccording to UW-CIMSS analyses, has begun to affect the cyclone, and\r\nthe low-level center is now exposed to the northwest of the deep\r\nconvection.  Dvorak CI numbers remain 2.5, and the initial intensity\r\ntherefore remains 35 kt.  The SHIPS guidance indicates that the\r\nvertical shear should be steady or even increase slightly during the\r\nnext 24 hours, so only slow strengthening is anticipated during that\r\ntime.  The best window for more significant intensification appears\r\nto be between 36 and 72 hours when the shear is forecast to\r\ndecrease.  Another round of increased shear on days 4 and 5 should\r\nlimit strengthening or induce weakening.  The intensity models are\r\nsplit on Ida's future intensity, with the SHIPS and LGEM models only\r\nmodestly strengthening the cyclone through day 5 while the GFDL and\r\nHWRF models bring Ida to hurricane strength by day 3.  Due to the\r\nuncertainty of how Ida will interact with the complex environment\r\naround it, the NHC intensity forecast is a bit below the intensity\r\nconsensus and is very similar to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nLow- to mid-level ridging to the north and northeast of Ida is\r\ninducing a slightly faster west-northwestward motion, or 295/10 kt.\r\nThe ridge is expected to weaken within the next 48 hours, leaving\r\nIda between two deep-layer lows, one located over the eastern\r\nAtlantic and the other northeast of the Leeward Islands.  This\r\nshould cause Ida to become nearly stationary or meander by days 3\r\nthrough 5. With the exception of the UKMET model, the other track\r\nmodels seem to be trending toward a solution in which the eastern\r\nAtlantic trough has at least some influence on Ida's motion, and the\r\nupdated NHC track forecast now shows a slow eastward drift on days 4\r\nand 5. Overall though, the NHC track forecast is very similar to the\r\nprevious one and is close to the model consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 14.8N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 15.7N  41.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 16.9N  43.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 18.2N  45.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 19.3N  46.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 20.5N  47.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 20.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 20.5N  46.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015\r\n\r\nIda's low-level center has been exposed northwest of the deep\r\nconvection all day due to about 20 kt of westerly shear, and the\r\ninitial intensity remains 35 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  Vertical shear is expected to be steady or increase\r\nslightly during the next 12-24 hours, so little, if any,\r\nstrengthening is anticipated in the short term.  The shear could\r\nthen decrease between 36-72 hours as Ida moves beneath a narrow\r\nupper-level ridge, but there is high uncertainty as to how the\r\nupper-level environment will evolve during the next few days.  The\r\nintensity models continue to disagree on the future intensity.\r\nWhile the GFDL and HWRF bring Ida to hurricane strength in 2 to 3\r\ndays, the SHIPS and LGEM models have actually backed off from this\r\nmorning's runs and show Ida getting no stronger than about 45 kt\r\nthrough day 5.  Since the upper-level environment only seems\r\nmarginally conducive for strengthening, the NHC intensity forecast\r\nremains closer to the statistical models and lower than the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nIda has sped up a bit, and the initial motion is 300/12 kt.  Low-\r\nto mid-level ridging will continue to steer the storm west-\r\nnorthwestward for the next 24 hours.  After that time, the ridge is\r\nexpected to weaken, the steering currents will collapse, and Ida\r\nwill meander between days 3 through 5.  The spread in the track\r\nmodels increases considerably beyond 48 hours, with the ECMWF, GFDL,\r\nand HWRF showing a northeastward turn by day 5, while the GFS and\r\nUKMET continue to show a westward motion.  Given the large spread\r\nin the models, very little motion is indicated in the official\r\nforecast at the end of the forecast period.  This scenario is the\r\nsame as that shown in previous forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 15.6N  40.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 16.4N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 17.6N  44.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 18.9N  46.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 19.9N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 20.5N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 20.0N  48.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 20.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015\r\n\r\nIda is badly sheared tropical cyclone.  The center, a well-defined\r\nswirl of low clouds, remains well removed from the nearest deep\r\nconvection to east.  This cloud pattern is consistent with UW-CIMSS\r\nshear analyses indicating about 20 kt of westerly vertical shear\r\nover the cyclone.  A partial ASCAT overpass at 0016 UTC showed\r\nbelievable 37-kt wind well east of the center, and the initial\r\nintensity estimate is kept at 35 kt.\r\n\r\nGlobal models show strong westerly shear persisting over Ida for\r\nthe next day or so.  With so much shear likely, little to no\r\nintensification is expected to occur.  A respite in the shear is\r\nforecast by 36 hours when a piece of an upper-level trough pinches\r\noff near the Greater Antilles and drifts westward, which may allow\r\nIda an opportunity to intensify some.  The lower-shear environment\r\nshould not last long, however, since a large mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough is forecast to dig southwestward into the central Atlantic on\r\ntop of Ida in 2 to 3 days, with the ECMWF model showing the\r\npotential for a complex trough interaction to take place. Assuming\r\nthat Ida survives, the environment looks less than ideal, with\r\nconfluent and strong northwesterly winds aloft and the possibility\r\nof enhanced oceanic upwelling underneath the cyclone. Weakening is\r\ntherefore considered the most likely scenario, and it would not be\r\nsurprising to see Ida become a remnant low during this time frame.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is lower than the previous one, closest\r\nto the HWRF model.  An alternate but less likely possibility is that\r\nIda could restrengthen due to baroclinic forcing as shown in the\r\nECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nIda has been moving faster and more westerly because of its more\r\nshallow nature, and the initial motion estimate is 290/13.  A\r\nsubtropical ridge migrating westward with the cyclone should keep it\r\non a general west-northwestward track for another day or so.\r\nSteering currents are expected to collapse in a couple of days in\r\nresponse to the large mid- to upper-level trough amplifying\r\nsouthwestward in the vicinity of Ida. The lack of steering should\r\ncause Ida to come to a halt in about 3 days, with the track\r\nforecast after that dependent on the depth of the storm. A deeper\r\ncyclone would move faster toward the north or northeast as shown in\r\nthe ECMWF, while a weaker and shallower cyclone would move westward\r\nad depicted in the GFS.  The official forecast is between these\r\ntwo extremes but leans more toward the GFS, given the current\r\nintensity forecast, and shows a slow northerly motion consistent\r\nwith the previous forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 15.8N  42.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 16.7N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 17.8N  46.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 18.9N  47.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 19.8N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 19.9N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 19.9N  48.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 20.3N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015\r\n\r\nIda remains a sheared tropical cyclone, but there are some\r\nindications that the mid-level and deep-layer shear is beginning to\r\nabate somewhat. A burst of deep convection has developed during the\r\npast few hours near the center and in the eastern quadrant, which\r\nso.me cloud tops near -80C. The initial intensity is being held at\r\n35 kt based on consensus Dvorak current-intensity estimates of\r\nT2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, but this could be a little\r\nconservative based on earlier partial ASCAT overpass that contained\r\nslightly higher wind speeds in the eastern quadrant.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. Ida is expected to move\r\nwest-northwestward and gradually slow down over the next several\r\ndays, possibly even stalling by days 4 and 5. Steering currents are\r\nforecast to weaken considerably after 72 hours as a strong mid- to\r\nupper-level trough digs southeastward across the central subtropical\r\nAtlantic and significantly erodes the ridge to the north of the\r\ncyclone. The global models are in good agreement on the developing\r\nsynoptic flow scenario through day 3, but then diverge significantly\r\nafter that with the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL models taking a deeper\r\nand stronger tropical cyclone more northward, whereas the GFS and\r\nHWRF models take a weaker and more shallow system westward. Given\r\nthe uncertainty in the expected strength and vertical depth of Ida\r\non days 3-5, the official forecast track lies down the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope, and is close to a blend of the consensus models\r\nTVCA and GFEX.\r\n\r\nThe moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear that Ida has\r\nbeen experiencing the past day or so is forecast by the GFS and\r\nECMWF models to gradually subside and become less than 10 kt by 24\r\nhours through 72 hours.  With such a robust low-level circulation\r\nand the mid-level humidity values expected to be near 70 percent,\r\nconvection should steadily increase and become better organized,\r\nproducing at least some slow intensification through the next 48\r\nhours. The leveling off of the intensity on days 3-5 is due to the\r\nuncertainty on whether or Ida moves beneath a small upper-level col\r\nregion with weak winds as indicated by the ECMWF model, which would\r\nsupport more strengthening than what the official forecast is\r\nindicating. The NHC intensity forecast lies essentially midway\r\nbetween the two intensity extremes of the weaker GFS-HRWF and the\r\nstronger ECMWF-GFDL model solutions, and is supported by the\r\nintensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 16.7N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 17.5N  45.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 18.8N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 19.8N  48.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 20.5N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 20.6N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 20.7N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 21.0N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 20 2015\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Ida remains exposed to the west of the deep\r\nconvection, due to moderate westerly shear that has been affecting\r\nthe tropical cyclone during the past couple of days. A recent ASCAT\r\noverpass revealed winds of 35 to 40 kt over the eastern portion of\r\nthe circulation so the initial intensity has been increased to 40\r\nkt.  The ASCAT data also indicate that the area of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds is larger than previous estimated, and\r\nthe wind radii have been adjusted accordingly.\r\n\r\nIda continues to move west-northwestward or 300 degrees at 13 kt.\r\nThe forward motion of the tropical cyclone is forecast to slow down\r\nduring the next day or two, as a blocking ridge strengthens to the\r\nnorth of the system over the central Atlantic.  All of the\r\ndynamical models show Ida becoming stationary or meandering over\r\nthe central Atlantic between 48 and 96 hours.  The NHC forecast\r\nfollows this scenario and shows the tropical cyclone stationary for\r\na couple of days.  Late in the forecast period, the ridge is\r\nexpected to weaken, which should allow a northwestward or northward\r\nmotion to begin, however, the track guidance is quite divergent at\r\nthat time.  Given the large spread in the guidance late in the\r\nperiod, the NHC forecast remains near the multi-model consensus at\r\ndays 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe westerly shear that has been affecting Ida is expected to\r\ndecrease during the next day or so.  This should allow for some\r\nstrengthening, and the NHC forecast is near the IVCN consensus\r\nmodel and the previous advisory.  After 48 hours, the global models\r\nare suggesting that an upper-level trough to the north of Ida may\r\ncause an increase in westerly shear.  As a result, the updated\r\nofficial forecast shows no change in intensity late in the period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 17.3N  44.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 18.2N  46.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 19.5N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 20.4N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 20.8N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 20.8N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 20.8N  48.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 21.2N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Ida has decreased in coverage and\r\nbecome somewhat less organized today.  The tropical cyclone remains\r\nsheared with a small band of convection located well east of the\r\nexposed center.  Although Dvorak satellite T-numbers have decreased\r\nthis afternoon, the initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is based\r\non the earlier ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nIda is moving northwestward or 305 degrees at 15 kt, a little faster\r\nthan this morning.  Despite the recent increase in forward speed,\r\nIda is expected to slow down during the next 24 hours, and become\r\nnearly stationary by Tuesday when a mid-level ridge builds to the\r\nnorth of the system.  Ida is then forecast to meander for a couple\r\nof days, before the ridge slides eastward and allows the tropical\r\ncyclone to resume a northwestward motion.  The track guidance is in\r\ngood agreement during the first few days of the forecast, but again\r\nbecomes quite divergent by the end of the forecast period.  The\r\nECMWF, which moves Ida more eastward during the next few days, is\r\nalong the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.  Meanwhile the\r\nUKMET and GFS show less of an eastern motion while the steering\r\ncurrents are weak, and take Ida more westward by day 5.  The updated\r\nNHC track is between these scenarios and remains close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus at 96 and 120 h.\r\n\r\nThe westerly shear is still expected to decrease during the next\r\nday or so, but given the current organization of the system, Ida\r\nmay not be able to take full advantage of the potentially more\r\nfavorable upper-air pattern.  Therefore, only a slight increase in\r\nintensity is predicted.  After 48 hours, upper-level westerly winds\r\nassociated with a trough are forecast to cause an increase in shear\r\nover the cyclone, which would likely cause weakening.  The global\r\nmodels, however, generally deepen the cyclone between 72 and 120 h\r\nwhen Ida interacts with an upper-level trough.  The official\r\nforecast shows little change in strength late in the period and\r\nlies between these differing possibilities.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 18.4N  46.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 19.6N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 20.9N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 21.5N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 21.5N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 21.0N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 20.9N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 22.5N  49.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 20 2015\r\n\r\nIda is showing new signs of life.  A new burst of intense convection\r\nhas developed over and east of the center, suggesting that westerly\r\nshear over the cyclone could be decreasing.  Although Ida's cloud\r\npattern has recently become better organized, an ASCAT pass from\r\n2358 UTC indicates that there has been no increase in winds, with\r\npeak uncontaminated winds of 37 kt.  Thus the initial wind speed\r\nis held at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nA large upper-level low northeast of the Lesser Antilles is moving\r\naway from Ida, resulting in a gradual relaxation of the westerly\r\nshear over the cyclone while the surrounding flow gradually becomes\r\nmore diffluent.  All other factors being equal, this change in the\r\nupper-air pattern should favor some intensification during the\r\nnext 24 hours or so, perhaps more than forecast.  After 36 hours, a\r\nmid- to upper-level trough amplifying southwestward from the eastern\r\nAtlantic should induce an inhospitable environment of strong\r\nnorthwesterly shear, drier mid-tropospheric air and confluence over\r\nIda.  The storm's slow movement by that time could also cause\r\nenhanced oceanic upwelling and locally cooler waters underneath the\r\ncyclone.  It is hard to imagine that these conditions would not\r\ninduce weakening, yet global models show Ida re-strengthening from\r\ndays 3 to 5 likely, probably due to a baroclinic forcing arising\r\nfrom the storm's interaction with the trough.  The new intensity\r\nforecast shows more intensification in the short term, and is above\r\nall of the intensity guidance.  Given the larger than normal\r\nuncertainty in the extended range, the intensity is essentially\r\nflatlined not far from the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes suggest that Ida's forward speed is decreasing, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 310/12.  Ida is quickly approaching a\r\nweakness in the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge along 50W,\r\nwhich should result in the cyclone's forward speed decelerating\r\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours.  Steering currents should collapse\r\nin about 36 hours in response to the eastern Atlantic trough\r\ndeepening southwestward, and Ida should suddenly come to a halt and\r\nthen meander with some eastward component of motion for a few days.\r\nAs the effects of the trough diminish by day 4, a majority of the\r\ntrack guidance shows Ida moving faster toward the north or north-\r\nnorthwest between two mid-level ridges.  The GFS is left of nearly\r\nall the guidance, however, showing Ida encountering a blocking ridge\r\nthat would cause a more westerly track.  The details of the track\r\nforecast between days 3 to 5 are still in greater than normal doubt,\r\nand thus the track is hardly adjusted through 72 hours, but is\r\nshifted toward the north and east after that time toward the\r\nmulti-model consensus without the GFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 18.9N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 20.2N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 21.0N  48.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 21.4N  48.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 21.2N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 20.6N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 21.3N  47.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 23.2N  48.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015\r\n\r\nA significant increase in the amount and organization of deep\r\nconvection has occurred during the past 6 hours. A large CDO-like\r\nfeature with a connecting curved band in the southern quadrant has\r\ndeveloped, and cloud tops have cooled significantly to colder than\r\n-80C. However, the low-level circulation center is not embedded in\r\nthe core of the main convective cloud mass, and is instead located\r\nabout 30 n mi inside the western portion of the cloud shield. This\r\nsuggests that some westerly vertical shear still exists. The initial\r\nintensity has been increased to 45 kt based on a Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB using a shear pattern.\r\n\r\nRecent AMSU and AMSR-2 microwave satellite fixes indicate that Ida's\r\nforward motion has continued to decrease and is now 330/07 kt.\r\nGlobal models indicate that the subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nIda is rapidly eroding as a broad mid-/upper-level trough to the\r\nnortheast and east of the cyclone slowly retrogrades westward.\r\nSteering currents are forecast to collapse within the next 12-24\r\nhours, resulting in Ida becoming nearly stationary during that time.\r\nBy 36-48 hours, Ida is expected to become embedded within the\r\nwestern portion of the aforementioned east-west oriented trough and\r\nmove slowly southeastward through 72 hours or so. After that time,\r\nthe trough is forecast to weaken, allowing the cyclone to move\r\nslowly north-northwestward to northward. The resultant model\r\nguidance more closely resembles the proverbial squashed spider\r\npattern, which is usually indicative of slow and meandering motion.\r\nThe NHC official track forecast follows suit, lying close to the\r\nprevious one and the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nOnce the low-level center becomes juxtaposed with the mid-/and\r\nupper-level circulations, significant strengthening should occur.\r\nGiven that vertical wind shear values are forecast by the GFS and\r\nECMWF models to decrease to near 5 kt within the next 12 hours or\r\nso, at least slow and steady intensification should continue for the\r\nnext 24-36 hours. After that time, the vertical shear is forecast to\r\nincrease from the west and northwest as the aforementioned trough\r\nbegins to interact with Ida. The intensity is forecast to decrease\r\nfrom 48-72 hours, followed by re-strengthening as the trough and its\r\nassociated upper-level shear lifts out to the northeast, leaving Ida\r\nin a weak col region. Given that Ida will be over SSTs of at least\r\n29C and within an upper-level cold pool by days 4 and 5, instability\r\nshould increase and act to regenerate vigorous convection despite\r\nmid-level humidity values of near 50 percent. The official intensity\r\nforecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast and the\r\nintensity consensus model IVCN, and is similar to a blend of the\r\nSHIPS/LGEM, GFDL, and ECMWF intensity forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 19.8N  47.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 20.7N  47.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 21.3N  48.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 21.4N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 21.1N  47.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 20.8N  47.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 21.8N  47.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 23.3N  48.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 21 2015\r\n\r\nIda has been producing a large cluster of very deep convection\r\novernight and this morning.  The tropical cyclone, however, is still\r\nbeing affected by shear as the low-level center can be seen in\r\nvisible satellite imagery just northwest of the convection, and this\r\nwas confirmed by a recent scatterometer pass. The initial wind speed\r\nis maintained at 45 kt, which is based on the latest TAFB Dvorak\r\nT-number and the recent ASCAT data that revealed winds of around\r\n40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe upper-level wind pattern is forecast to become a little more\r\nconducive for strengthening during the next 12 to 24 hours and the\r\nNHC forecast calls for some slight intensification.  After that\r\ntime, northwesterly shear is expected to increase as an upper-level\r\ntrough to the northeast of Ida retrogrades westward.  This could\r\ncause some weakening, but most of the intensity guidance shows\r\nlittle change in strength during this time, and the NHC forecast\r\nmaintains an intensity of 55 kt from 24 to 72 hours.  Later in the\r\nforecast period, the global models take the upper-level trough\r\nnortheastward and develop a more favorable upper-air pattern over\r\nthe tropical cyclone, which should allow for strengthening by\r\ndays 4 and 5.  The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory, and is close to the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nThe forward motion of Ida continues to decrease and is now 330/6\r\nkt.  The steering currents around the tropical cyclone are forecast\r\nto further weaken during the next day or so as the mid- to\r\nupper-level trough retrogrades westward.  Ida should become\r\nnearly stationary tonight, then meander eastward or east-\r\nsoutheastward on Tuesday and Wednesday as the mid- to upper-level\r\nflow becomes northwestward.  The dynamical models have come into\r\nbetter agreement on this scenario, including the latest GFS run\r\nthat shifted eastward and is now close to the ECMWF.  After 72\r\nhours, when the trough moves northeastward, Ida should turn\r\nnorthwestward at a faster forward speed.  The updated NHC\r\ntrack has been adjusted eastward and is close to a blend of the\r\nECMWF, GFS, and GFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 20.6N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 21.1N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 21.3N  47.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 21.2N  47.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 20.7N  46.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 20.8N  46.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 22.0N  46.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 24.0N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that the low- and mid-level centers of Ida\r\nhave become separated, with the low-level center exposed well to the\r\nnorthwest of the deep convection.  This appears to be the result\r\nof some unanticipated mid-level shear that is occurring below the\r\ntypical 200 mb outflow layer.  The latest TAFB Dvorak classification\r\nand objective ADT estimates from UW/CIMSS support an initial\r\nintensity of 40-45 kt, and based on the earlier ASCAT data the\r\nadvisory wind speed is held at 45 kt, although this could be\r\ngenerous.  The forecast upper-level wind pattern over the next\r\ncouple of days, which features continued mid-level shear along\r\nwith an increase in upper-level northwesterly winds, should prevent\r\nstrengthening.  In fact, Ida could weaken during the next 2-3 days,\r\nand perhaps not survive as a tropical cyclone.  The NHC forecast\r\nassumes that Ida will maintain tropical cyclone status, and that\r\nupper-level winds will become a little more conducive for\r\nstrengthening by late in the period.  The updated NHC intensity\r\nforecast is lower than the previous one, but still shows some\r\nincrease in strength at 96 and 120 h.\r\n\r\nIda continues to move north-northwestward, but recent visible\r\nsatellite imagery suggest that the forward speed is decreasing.\r\nThe track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory.  The steering currents around the tropical storm are\r\nexpected to weaken very soon, and Ida is expected to meander\r\neastward or east-southeastward over the next couple of days.  After\r\nthat time, Ida should begin a northwestward or north-northwestward\r\nmotion as a mid- to upper-level trough lifts out to the northeast.\r\nThe track guidance has become quite divergent this cycle with very\r\nlarge spread between a faster and more eastward ECMWF solution, and\r\na slower and more westward GFS track.  For now, the official\r\nforecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope, closest to\r\nthe GFS ensemble mean and FSU Superensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 21.2N  48.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 21.6N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 21.6N  48.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 21.1N  47.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 20.8N  46.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 21.5N  46.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 23.0N  47.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 25.0N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 21 2015\r\n\r\nIda's cloud pattern has become increasingly disorganized.  Satellite\r\ndata indicate that the large separation between the cyclone's low-\r\nto mid-level centers persists as a result of a strong west-\r\nnorthwesterly shear.  The nearest deep convection, coincident with\r\nthe mid-level center, remains well removed to the southeast.  The\r\ninitial wind speed is conservatively lowered to 40 kt and is above\r\nthe latest Dvorak intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nThe tail of a large mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern\r\nAtlantic is forecast to sweep southward over Ida during the next 24\r\nhours.  Even stronger deep-layer northwesterly shear and confluence\r\naloft associated with this feature should adversely affect the storm\r\nduring the next few days, and cause weakening. One could envision\r\nIda not surviving such a greatly inhospitable environment.  However,\r\nglobal models depict Ida remaining a coherent feature and eventually\r\nre-strengthening, though Ida's forecast intensification occurs in\r\ndifferent ways.  The ECMWF has consistently shown Ida re-\r\nstrengthening, seemingly as a consequence of baroclinic forcing from\r\nthe trough interaction.  Such an interaction could potentially\r\nresult in Ida's taking on the characteristics of a hybrid cyclone.\r\nThe GFS shows Ida becoming disentangled from the trough, and\r\nre-intensifying after the trough lifts out.  Regardless of which\r\nscenario occurs, any re-strengthening of Ida as a tropical cyclone\r\nwould likely be tempered by substantially drier air on the backside\r\nof the trough being entrained by the cyclone.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is lower than the previous one in the short term due to the\r\noverall harsh environment affecting the storm.  A modest increase in\r\nstrength is shown at the end of the forecast, similar to the\r\nprevious forecast.\r\n\r\nThe definition of Ida's center has been deteriorating, and it has\r\nthus become harder to track.  It appears though the the cyclone's\r\nforward speed has been decreasing, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis an uncertain 340/04.  The deep layer west-northwesterly to\r\nnorthwesterly flow, associated with the trough overtaking Ida, could\r\nimpart a slow eastward or east-southeastward motion for a couple of\r\ndays.  After that, the bulk of the track guidance shows Ida caught\r\nbetween two mid-level ridges, which should induce a north-\r\nnorthwestward and then northward motion at a gradually increasing\r\nforward speed. Only the GFS shows Ida encountering a blocking ridge\r\nwith a track much farther to the west, a solution very different\r\nthan its ensemble mean.  The new track has been adjusted somewhat to\r\nthe east overall through 72 hours and is a little faster than the\r\nprevious one, in good agreement with a model consensus without the\r\nGFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 21.7N  49.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 21.9N  49.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 21.5N  48.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 20.9N  47.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 20.9N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 22.3N  47.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 24.4N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 26.2N  48.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015\r\n\r\nShortwave infrared satellite imagery indicates that Ida's low-level\r\ncirculation center is now moving or developing east-southeastward\r\ncloser to the large mass of deep convection that has been persisting\r\nin the southeastern portion of the larger circulation. The initial\r\nintensity is being maintained at 40 kt, especially now that the\r\nlow-level center has moved closer to the mid- and upper-level\r\ncirculations as seen in microwave and conventional satellite images.\r\nThis intensity is supported by a Dvorak current intensity estimate\r\nof T3.0/45 kt from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 105/04 kt. The recent and much\r\nanticipated turn to the east-southeast appears to have occurred\r\neither due to actual storm motion or due to redevelopment of the\r\nlow-level center closer to the strong convection. Regardless of the\r\ncause in the Ida's recent motion change, the global and regional\r\nmodels are in very good agreement on a continued general slow motion\r\ntoward the east for the next 48 hours or so as the southern portion\r\nof a large mid- to upper-level trough moves across and captures the\r\ncyclone. By 72 hours, the trough lifts out to the northeast and\r\nreleases Ida, allowing the cyclone to move slowly toward the\r\nnorthwest by day 4 and toward the north on day 5. As would be\r\nexpected in such a weak flow regime, the model guidance is widely\r\ndivergent after 72 hours with the UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models\r\ntaking Ida more toward the west-northwest, whereas the GFS, ECMWF,\r\nGFDL, and Canadian models take Ida more toward the northwest and\r\nnorth. The one thing that the all of the models do agree on,\r\nhowever, is that Ida is not expected move very quickly during the\r\nnext 5 days. The NHC track forecast is similar to but slower than\r\nthe previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the\r\nconsensus models TCVA and GFEX.\r\n\r\nGiven the uncertainty in exactly when and where the low-level center\r\nof Ida will move underneath the mid/upper-level circulation due to\r\nfluctuations in the deep-layer vertical shear profiles during the\r\nnext 3 days, the intensity forecast calls for no significant\r\nchanges in the strength of the cyclone during that time. By days 4\r\nand 5, however, some gradual strengthening is expected as the\r\nvertical shear abates somewhat while Ida is moving over 29C\r\nsea-surface temperatures. The official intensity forecast is similar\r\nto the previous advisory, and closely follows the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 21.3N  48.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 21.3N  48.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 20.9N  47.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 20.6N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 20.8N  46.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 22.0N  46.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 23.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 25.2N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 22 2015\r\n\r\nIda continues to be a sheared cyclone with the low-level center\r\nlocated to the northwest of an area of very deep convection. The\r\nupper-level outflow in the southern half of the cyclone has become\r\nbetter defined since yesterday, but it is not existent elsewhere.\r\nDvorak numbers are decreasing and do not support 40 kt at this\r\ntime. However, I would wait for scatterometer or any other data, if\r\navailable, to reduce the winds, if necessary.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is embedded within an uncommon flow pattern. It is\r\nlocated at the southern end of a mid-level trough, which is forcing\r\nthe cyclone to move east-southeastward at about 7 kt, and also\r\ncausing shear. The evolution of this trough will be crucial for the\r\nfuture of Ida. Unanimously, global models keep the cyclone drifting\r\ngenerally eastward for the next 2 days or so, while embedded within\r\nthe trough. After that time, all models forecast the trough to lift\r\nout, leaving Ida south of an amplifying ridge. This forecast pattern\r\nshould result in a decrease of the shear with favorable conditions\r\nfor strengthening, and a slow motion of the cyclone toward the\r\nnorth-northwest. It is interesting to note the current agreement of\r\nall global models with this scenario, and at long range, the GFS and\r\nECMWF primarily forecast a significant strengthening of Ida.  Given\r\nthe uncommon pattern and the currently hostile environment, the NHC\r\nforecast keeps the cyclone with the same intensity for the next day\r\nor two, and allows for some intensification once Ida becomes\r\ndetached from the trough. The NHC track forecast is in the middle of\r\nthe guidance envelope, and follows the trend of the ECMWF and GFS\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 20.5N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 20.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 20.5N  46.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 20.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 20.5N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 22.0N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 23.5N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 25.5N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Ida has been placed in the middle of a gyre\r\ndefined by several small vortices. The cyclone is still sheared with\r\nthe strongest convection located within a cyclonically- curved band\r\nto the south of the center. Given the lack of scatterometer data,\r\nand little change in the satellite presentation, the initial\r\nintensity is kept at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nIda is embedded within the southern end of a mid-level trough, which\r\nis forcing the cyclone to drift east-southeastward at about 4 kt,\r\nand is also causing shear over the cyclone. The evolution of this\r\ntrough will be crucial for the future of Ida. Global models indicate\r\nthat Ida will drift generally eastward embedded in the trough for\r\nthe next 48 hours. After that time, most of the models lift the\r\ntrough out, leaving Ida south of an amplifying ridge. This long\r\nrange forecast pattern should result in the cyclone turning toward\r\nthe north-northwest as indicated in the NHC forecast, and also a\r\ndecrease of the shear with favorable conditions for strengthening.\r\nSince the environment is currently quite hostile, no important\r\nchange in intensity is indicated during the next 3 days. By the end\r\nof the forecast period, when the cyclone becomes detached from the\r\ntrough, some slight increase in strength is forecast.\r\n\r\nThe NHC track forecast continues to be in the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope, and is very close to the ECMWF and GFS consensus. If the\r\nglobal models are correct, Ida will be meandering over the Atlantic\r\nfor several more days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 20.5N  47.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 20.2N  47.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 20.0N  46.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 20.0N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 20.5N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 22.5N  45.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 24.5N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 26.5N  46.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 22 2015\r\n\r\nLast-light visible imagery, microwave imagery, and a timely ASCAT\r\npass around 00Z showed that the center of Ida is located on the\r\nnortheastern side of the larger gyre seen earlier today, just west\r\nof a new burst of deep convection. This structure is consistent with\r\nthe 30 kt of westerly shear seen in UW-CIMSS satellite analyses. The\r\ninitial intensity is set to 35 kt based on data from the ASCAT pass\r\nand in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.\r\nLittle change in intensity is expected during the next 48 hours,\r\nwith moderate to strong shear forecast to continue. By 72 hours the\r\nshear decreases a bit, which should allow for a little\r\nstrengthening. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of\r\nthe latest SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models.\r\n\r\nThe initial position results in a relocation of the center to the\r\nnortheast of the previous advisory with a slow east-southeastward\r\ndrift as the initial motion. Ida is currently embedded in the base\r\nof a mid-latitude trough which should result in a continued slow\r\neast-southeastward motion during the next day or so followed by a\r\ngradual turn toward the northeast and then the north by 48 hours as\r\nthe trough moves away. A slightly faster north-northwestward motion\r\nis forecast at days 3 through 5 as a mid-level ridge builds to the\r\nnorth of the tropical cyclone. During the latter portion of the\r\nforecast period much of the guidance has shifted westward, now\r\nshowing a weaker Ida remaining south of the mid-latitude westerlies\r\nthrough day 5. The NHC track during this time has been nudged to\r\nthe left of the previous one adjusted for the initial position.\r\nHowever, out of respect for continuity the NHC forecast remains\r\nclose to the ECMWF on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and\r\nis well right of the consensus aids. Given the large shift in the\r\nguidance this cycle, confidence is quite low in the track forecast\r\nlate in the period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 20.9N  46.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 20.7N  46.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 20.5N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 21.0N  45.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 21.6N  45.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 23.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 25.0N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 26.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015\r\n\r\nShortwave infrared satellite imagery and a 0413 UTC GCOM microwave\r\npass suggest that multiple low-level swirls are revolving around\r\nIda's center, which has been fixed to the west-northwest of an\r\nongoing burst of deep convection.  This pattern is the consequence\r\nof 30 kt of west-northwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS.\r\nMaximum winds remain 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT data, and it\r\nappears that Ida's intensity probably won't change much during the\r\nnext couple of days.  Vertical shear is forecast to gradually\r\nweaken, but it likely won't fall to less than 15 kt for at least\r\nanother 48 hours.  Some strengthening is possible beginning on day\r\n3 once the shear has decreased.  With the exception of the GFDL,\r\nthe intensity models are in close agreement through day 4, with\r\nsome more spread by day 5.  Based on this latest guidance, no\r\nchanges were made to the previous NHC intensity forecast for this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nAlthough Ida's exact center is difficult to locate, the entire\r\ncirculation has seemingly been drifting southward since the previous\r\nadvisory.  This is probably for good reason, as Ida is embedded\r\nwithin northerly flow near the base of a mid-tropospheric trough\r\nwhich stretches across the eastern Atlantic.  The estimated initial\r\nmotion is 180/2 kt, but Ida will likely gain an eastward component\r\nsoon while being tugged by the eastern Atlantic trough.  The\r\nsubtropical ridge is expected build westward over the eastern\r\nAtlantic by 48 hours, which should impart a slightly faster\r\nnorthward motion through the end of the forecast period.  The\r\nspread in the 00 UTC track guidance decreased on this forecast\r\ncycle compared to earlier runs, with the UKMET model being the only\r\nobvious outlier.  Given the tight clustering, the NHC official\r\ntrack forecast was again adjusted westward, mainly on days 3-5,\r\nand lies very close to the various multi-model consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 20.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 20.4N  46.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 20.5N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 21.0N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 21.7N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 23.0N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 25.0N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 26.0N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 23 2015\r\n\r\nIda's cloud pattern has deteriorated since yesterday, and the\r\nupper-level outflow is very disrupted due to shear. The center of\r\nthe cyclone has been placed in the middle of a couple of low cloud\r\nswirls, and to the west of a small area of deep convection. Based on\r\ncontinuity, the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt, however, a\r\nrecent partial ASCAT suggests that the winds could be lower.\r\n\r\nBoth ECMWF and GFS SHIPS intensity models indicate that the shear\r\nhas peaked, and a gradual relaxation should soon begin. However, it\r\nwill take 36 to 48 hours for the shear to be low enough to favor\r\nre-strengthening. On this basis, only a small increase in intensity\r\nis forecast beyond that time. This is consistent with the previous\r\nforecast and the intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone, as anticipated, has become well embedded in the base\r\nof an upper-level trough and is drifting eastward or 090 degrees at\r\n4 kt. Most of the global models lift the trough out and keep the\r\ncyclone moving very slowly within weak steering currents for the\r\nnext day or two. After that time, the subtropical ridge is forecast\r\nto build over the Atlantic, and this flow pattern will force the\r\ncyclone to move toward the north and then to the north-northwest.\r\nFor the next 3 days or so, the guidance is in good agreement showing\r\na northward turn. The model spread increases after four days, but\r\nthe general trend is to keep the cyclone moving slowly while is\r\ntrapped south of the subtropical ridge.  The NHC forecast is in the\r\nmiddle of the track envelope and is very similar to the previous\r\none.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 20.0N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 20.0N  46.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 20.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 21.0N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 22.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 23.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 25.0N  47.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 25.5N  48.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015\r\n\r\nIda's cloud pattern has not changed significantly during the day.\r\nThe center of the cyclone is located to the west of a small area of\r\ndeep convection, and the initial intensity is still estimated at 35\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nMost of the global models indicate that a gradual relaxation of the\r\nshear should begin in a day or two, resulting in a little more\r\nfavorable environment for Ida to re-strengthen. On this basis, the\r\nNHC forecast calls for a small increase in intensity beyond 48\r\nhours. This is consistent with the previous forecast and the\r\nintensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nIda has been drifting generally eastward embedded within the\r\nbase of a mid- to upper-level trough. This trough is expected to\r\nlift out and keep the cyclone moving very slowly toward the\r\nnortheast during the next 24 hours or so, while embedded within\r\nweak steering currents. After that time, Ida is forecast to turn to\r\nthe north and north-northwest as a subtropical ridge gradually\r\nreplaces the trough. The NHC forecast has changed very little from\r\nthe previous one, and is very close to multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nOne interesting change is that the ECMWF and GFS models had been\r\nforecasting Ida to linger for a week or more over the Atlantic as a\r\nstrong tropical cyclone.  However, the most recent runs of both\r\nmodels now show a much weaker system.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 19.9N  46.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 19.9N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 20.7N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 21.5N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 22.5N  46.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 24.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 25.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 25.5N  48.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 23 2015\r\n\r\nIda is not a well-organized tropical storm.  The center is on the\r\nwestern side of a small area of deep convection, with a few banding\r\nfeatures noted in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone.  The\r\ninitial intensity remains 35 kt since a recent partial ASCAT pass\r\nshowed maximum winds of 30-35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe storm continues to experience moderate-to-strong westerly shear.\r\nWhile the shear could relax somewhat over the next couple of days,\r\nvery dry air is present in the mid- to upper-levels near and to the\r\nnorthwest of the cyclone, which could prevent Ida from fully taking\r\nadvantage of the more favorable shear conditions for a few days.\r\nThe latest NHC intensity forecast is close to the previous one and\r\nthe intensity consensus.  At longer range, some of the models are\r\nshowing a resumption of the stronger shear, with only the GFDL\r\nforecasting significant intensification.  Overall, the trend has\r\nbeen toward a less favorable environment at day 5, and the NHC\r\nintensity forecast is reduced at that time.\r\n\r\nIda is moving eastward at about 4 kt while it remains embedded\r\nwithin the base of a mid- to upper-level trough.  This trough is\r\nexpected to lift out tomorrow with a ridge rebuilding over the\r\ncentral Atlantic.  This pattern should cause the storm to move to\r\nthe north by late Thursday, followed by a turn to the northwest on\r\nFriday around the ridge.  After that time, another mid-latitude\r\ntrough is expected to affect the cyclone.  This feature, however, is\r\nnot as deep as the last trough, and with the vertical representation\r\nof Ida being shallower in the model fields, much of the guidance is\r\nonly show Ida stalling for a short amount of time rather than\r\nturning with the trough.  Another ridge builds in by late weekend,\r\nwhich then forces Ida to move west-northwestward and westward by\r\nearly next week. The guidance has shifted notably westward on this\r\ncycle in response to this pattern, and the NHC forecast is shifted\r\nthat direction at long range, but is still pretty far east of the\r\nmodel consensus due to continuity concerns.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 19.9N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 20.3N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 21.0N  45.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 21.8N  46.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 22.7N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 24.2N  48.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 24.5N  49.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 24.5N  50.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ida","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015\r\n\r\nIda's low-level center is exposed to the west of a relatively small\r\ncluster of deep convection due to 25 kt of west-northwesterly shear.\r\nBy themselves, satellite intensity estimates would no longer\r\nsupport Ida's status as a tropical storm, but the partial ASCAT\r\npasses from last evening had just enough wind that I'm hesitant to\r\ndowngrade the system to a tropical depression just yet.  Vertical\r\nshear is expected to decrease only slightly during the next couple\r\nof days, and along with abundant mid-level dry air, the environment\r\nwill not be particularly favorable for strengthening.  The GFDL,\r\nwhich brings Ida to hurricane strength in 4 days, remains an outlier\r\nand is discounted as a reasonable solution.  Conversely, the ECMWF\r\nand GFS global models show Ida weakening as a result of the\r\nunfavorable environment, with the GFS even showing the cyclone\r\ndegenerating to a trough by day 4 or 5.  Because of these more\r\nbelievable scenarios, the NHC intensity forecast is a little lower\r\nthan the previous one at the end of the forecast period, and\r\noverall is very close to the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nIda had been moving east-southeastward during the past 12 hours,\r\nbut the current motion estimate is 090/5 kt.  Ida remains located\r\nwithin the base of a mid-tropospheric trough, but it should become\r\ndetached from the trough during the next 24 hours and turn\r\nnorthward as low- to mid-level ridging develops over the eastern\r\nAtlantic.  Now that the global models have been trending toward a\r\nweaker system by days 3 through 5, they show Ida becoming blocked\r\nby a surface high over the north Atlantic and moving westward at a\r\nfaster forward speed by the end of the forecast period.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is a little faster than and southwest of\r\nthe previous forecast at days 4 and 5 to account for the model\r\ntrends, but it is otherwise very similar before those times.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 19.6N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 20.2N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 20.8N  45.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 21.6N  45.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 22.5N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 23.8N  48.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 23.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 23.0N  52.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 24 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been no significant change in the satellite presentation\r\nof the cyclone. Ida is a sheared system and consists of a broad\r\ncirculation with a cyclonically curved convective band around the\r\neastern side.  Based on a recent ASCAT pass the initial intenisty\r\nhas been lowered to 30 kt. The hostile shear environment will likely\r\ncontinue today, but both the operational SHIPS and the experimental\r\nSHIPS based on ECMWF fields lower the shear allowing for some\r\nrestrengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for little\r\nchange in intensity during the next day or two, and some minor\r\nincrease of the winds after that time.\r\n\r\nIda has begun to move toward the north-northeast at 4 kt. The\r\ncyclone will become completely detached from the mid-level trough in\r\nabout 12 to 24 hours, and will be slowly steered toward the north\r\nand north-northwest by the flow surrounding a developing subtropical\r\nridge. After that time, a stronger ridge will force Ida to turn\r\nwestward with some increase in forward speed. Track guidance is very\r\nconsistent with this westward turn, however, by then, the status of\r\nIda is highly uncertain. Ida could still be a tropical cyclone as\r\nindicated in the NHC forecast or it will be degenerating into a\r\ntrough as indicated by the GFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 20.2N  44.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 20.8N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 21.5N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 22.5N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 23.5N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 24.5N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 24.5N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 24.0N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":26,"Date":"2015-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015\r\n\r\nIda is a sheared system and consists of a tight swirl of low clouds\r\nwith a comma-shaped convective band to the east of the center. Since\r\nthere has been no change in the satellite presentation, the initial\r\nintensity is kept at 30 kt. Global models no longer forecasting a\r\ndecrease in the shear, and in general, all models are showing a\r\ngradual decay of the cyclone. On this basis, the NHC forecast\r\nmaintains Ida as a depression through the forecast period.\r\n\r\nIda has been moving toward the north at about 4 knots. The mid-\r\ntropospheric trough, which was affecting Ida, is gradually moving\r\neastward away from the cyclone, and the subtropical ridge has begun\r\nto develop to the north of the cyclone. This pattern will favor a\r\nnorth-northwest to northwest track during the next 48 hours. After\r\nthat time, the cyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will\r\nlikely move westward as it is steered by the low-level easterly\r\nflow.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 21.2N  45.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 21.9N  45.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 22.5N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 23.5N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 24.5N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 25.0N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 25.0N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 24.5N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":27,"Date":"2015-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 24 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of Ida, like most of the Atlantic tropical cyclones this\r\nyear at some point, is exposed to southwest of a bursting area\r\nof deep convection.  The initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in\r\naccordance with the latest TAFB Dvorak classification. A combination\r\nof shear and dry air aloft is expected to persist near Ida for the\r\nnext few days.  These conditions are forecast to cause the cyclone\r\nto gradually weaken.  Although the cyclone could move into a\r\nslightly more favorable environment at long range, there isn't\r\nlikely to be much left of Ida to take advantage of the conditions.\r\nThe latest NHC forecast is close to the model consensus for the\r\nfirst few days, then is below that aid at days 3 and 4, leaning more\r\nheavily on the weaker solutions of the HWRF, GFS and ECMWF models.\r\nBoth the GFS and the ECMWF now show Ida opening up into a trough by\r\nday 5, and the official forecast follows that trend.\r\n\r\nIda is moving erratically north-northwestward at about 4 knots. The\r\ndepression should turn northwestward tomorrow and head in that\r\ngeneral direction for a couple of days due to a weak subtropical\r\nridge forming over the central Atlantic.  After that time, the\r\ncyclone is expected to be a shallow system, and will likely move\r\nto the west or west-southwest as it is steered by a strong low-level\r\nridge. The guidance has shifted leftward, which makes sense for a\r\nweaker cyclone, and the official NHC prediction follows suit.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 21.3N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 21.9N  45.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 22.8N  46.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 23.7N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 24.4N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 24.3N  49.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 24.0N  51.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":28,"Date":"2015-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015\r\n\r\nA few convective cells have been forming near Ida's center during\r\nthe past several hours, but most of the thunderstorm activity\r\nremains displaced more than 150 n mi to the east-northeast due to\r\n20 kt of shear.  Maximum winds remain 30 kt based on the latest\r\nDvorak CI number from TAFB, but it's clear from satellite imagery\r\nthat the shear and dry air has caused a steady degradation of the\r\ncyclone's structure during the past few days.  With moderate\r\nvertical shear expected to continue and the mid-level relative\r\nhumidity forecast to drop to between 30 and 40 percent, additional\r\nweakening is anticipated during the next couple of days, and Ida\r\ncould degenerate to a remnant low by 48 hours.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast shows the possibility of the maximum winds increasing again\r\nby days 3 and 4, but this is the result of a tight pressure gradient\r\nbetween the remnant low and strong high pressure over the north\r\nAtlantic--not a restrengthening of Ida's circulation.  Based on\r\nglobal model guidance, the remnant low could open up into a trough\r\nby day 5, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nIda is being steered generally north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt, by\r\na low-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  The depression should\r\nmove northwestward through 48 hours and then abruptly turn westward\r\nor west-southwestward during its remnant low stage when strong\r\nlow-level ridging develops over the north Atlantic.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is close to the various consensus aids and shows a slightly\r\nfaster motion of the remnant low after 72 hours compared to the\r\nprevious forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 21.7N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 22.4N  45.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 23.4N  46.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 24.4N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 25.0N  47.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 24.1N  49.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 23.2N  52.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":29,"Date":"2015-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is similar to 24 hours ago, and still consists of\r\na tight swirl of low clouds with a curved convective band to the\r\neast of the center. The overall circulation, however, appears to be\r\ndecaying. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and given\r\nthe strong shear and dry air affecting the cyclone, weakening is\r\nforecast. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow in about 36 hours or sooner.\r\n\r\nThe swirl defining the center has been moving northward at about 4\r\nkt. A high pressure system is forecast to develop over the North\r\nAtlantic, and this high will force the shallow depression, or its\r\nremnants, to move toward the northwest during the next day or two.\r\nA sharp turn to the west or southwest is expected on Sunday, and\r\nby then the cyclone could have opened into a trough.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 22.1N  45.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 22.9N  45.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 24.0N  46.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 25.0N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 25.5N  47.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 24.0N  49.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 23.0N  53.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":30,"Date":"2015-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015\r\n\r\nNot much has changed today and resilient Ida is still there. It\r\nconsists of a tight swirl of low clouds with a curved convective\r\nband to the east of the center.  The initial intensity is estimated\r\nat 25 kt. The overall circulation is expected to decay as the\r\ndepression continues to move within an environment of high shear and\r\ndry air. The depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low\r\nin about 24 hours or sooner.\r\n\r\nThe center has been moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt. A\r\nhigh pressure system is forecast to develop over the North Atlantic,\r\nand this high will force the shallow depression, or its remnants, to\r\nmove toward the northwest, and then, as the high to the north\r\nintensifies, a sharp turn to the west or southwest should occur\r\nSunday night or Monday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 22.5N  45.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 23.5N  46.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 24.5N  47.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 25.0N  47.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 24.6N  48.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 23.5N  51.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 22.6N  54.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":31,"Date":"2015-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression consists of a swirl of low clouds with pulsing\r\nconvection in the eastern part of the circulation.  Although Ida\r\nisn't very impressive on satellite imagery, the latest ASCAT data\r\nshowed a small area of 30-35 kt winds in the southeastern quadrant\r\nof the cyclone.  Since the convective structure has degraded since\r\nthe ASCAT pass and the Dvorak estimates are low, the initial wind\r\nspeed is conservatively set to 30 kt.\r\n\r\nIda is still forecast, albeit with low confidence, to decay into a\r\nremnant low in 24 h while the cyclone remains in a high shear, low\r\nmoisture environment during the next day or so.  Global and\r\nregional model guidance, however, are starting to suggest that Ida\r\nwill encounter a more favorable environment in 2-3 days with less\r\nshear and warmer waters, with only the GFS model now showing\r\ndissipation. In fact, most of the guidance brings the cyclone back\r\nto tropical storm strength by day 5.  I'd like to see more\r\nconsistent guidance before forecasting that solution, but as a\r\ncompromise, the new prediction calls for Ida to regenerate as\r\ntropical depression, but with limited strengthening.  While the new\r\nforecast is above the previous one, it is below almost all of the\r\nguidance except for the GFS.\r\n\r\nIda is moving faster toward the north-northwest tonight at about 7\r\nkt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward tomorrow,\r\nwestward on Sunday and then west-southwestward while Ida moves\r\naround a strengthening mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.\r\nModels have come into better agreement on this scenario, although\r\nthe ECMWF remains a bit of a slow outlier.  The official forecast is\r\nshifted southwestward, but lies on the northern side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 22.9N  45.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 23.6N  46.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 24.3N  47.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 24.3N  47.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 23.7N  48.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 22.7N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 22.1N  54.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 22.5N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":32,"Date":"2015-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015\r\n\r\nDespite continued westerly shear and abundant dry air in the middle\r\nand upper levels of the atmosphere, Ida continues to produce a\r\npersistent cluster of deep convection to the east of its center.\r\nThe intensity remains 30 kt based on ASCAT data from last evening.\r\n\r\nIda's future during the next several days is highly uncertain.\r\nSHIPS environmental parameters suggest that the worst might be over.\r\nThe vertical shear that has been affecting the cyclone could\r\nactually decrease gradually during the next couple of days, and sea\r\nsurface temperatures are forecast to remain at least 29 degrees\r\nCelsius.  Therefore, it is not a sure bet that the system will cease\r\nproducing organized deep convection, which is a necessary condition\r\nfor the cyclone to be declared a remnant low.  A more likely\r\nscenario would be that the circulation becomes elongated, the center\r\nbecomes ill defined, and Ida dissipates.  Therefore, the NHC\r\nofficial forecast no longer shows Ida becoming a remnant low,\r\nkeeping it as a depression for the next five days.  However, Ida\r\ncould also dissipate at any time if it no longer shows signs of a\r\nwell-defined center of circulation, as is suggested by the GFS in a\r\ncouple of days.  But, it bears repeating: this is a very uncertain\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nIda is being steered northwestward, or 325/7 kt, by a low-level\r\nridge to its northeast.  However, the depression is approaching a\r\nbreak in the ridge, and a stronger ridge is expected to slide\r\neastward from New England to the north Atlantic over the next few\r\ndays.  This pattern change should cause Ida to slow down during the\r\nnext 24 hours and then move westward or west-southwestward at a\r\nfaster speed during the remainder of the forecast period.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, except\r\nthat it is a little faster beyond 48 hours to be close to the\r\nvarious consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 23.4N  46.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 24.0N  46.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 24.4N  47.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 24.2N  48.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 23.6N  49.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 22.6N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 22.5N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 23.0N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":33,"Date":"2015-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 26 2015\r\n\r\nThere continues to be little change in the satellite appearance of\r\nIda with the low-level center exposed to the west of a persistent\r\narea of deep convection.  The circulation of the system remains\r\nlarge and well defined.  Recent ASCAT data suggest that the initial\r\nintensity is still 30 kt, which is a little higher than the Dvorak\r\nclassifications.\r\n\r\nThe strong westerly shear that has been affecting Ida during the\r\npast several days is expected to lessen by tomorrow.  Consequently,\r\nthe SHIPS guidance shows the system gaining strength.  However,\r\nnearly all of the dynamical models show little, if any,\r\nstrengthening of Ida.  The official forecast continues to prefer\r\nthe solution provided by the dynamical models due to the continued\r\ninfluence of dry air near the system. It is also possible that the\r\ndepression could dissipate in a few days when a frontal boundary\r\nstalls just to the north of Ida, which could cause the circulation\r\nto become elongated or open into a trough.  Given the various\r\nscenarios provided by the guidance, this forecast is quite\r\nuncertain.\r\n\r\nIda is still moving north-northwestward at about 7 kt, but it is\r\nexpected to turn west-northwestward by tonight and southwestward by\r\nlate tomorrow as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of\r\nthe system.  A general westward motion with some increase in\r\nforward speed is expected beyond that time.  Although there is some\r\nspread in the guidance, most of the models agree on this general\r\ntheme.  A small northward adjustment was made to the previous\r\nforecast track beyond 48 hours, to come into better agreement with\r\nthe latest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 24.0N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 24.7N  47.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 24.9N  47.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 24.4N  48.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 23.9N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 23.5N  53.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 23.7N  57.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 24.1N  60.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":34,"Date":"2015-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015\r\n\r\nThere continues to be little change associated with Ida.  A small\r\narea of pulsing convection is lingering to the east of the exposed\r\nlow-level center.  The circulation remains well organized, however,\r\nand mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.  Earlier ASCAT\r\ndata indicated that winds were in the 25-30 kt range, and since the\r\ncyclone has not changed much since then, the initial intensity is\r\nheld at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe models are quite divergent on the future intensity of Ida.  The\r\nSHIPS model suggests that the depression could strengthen since the\r\nshear is expected to lessen during the next 2-3 days.  Conversely,\r\nmost of the dynamical models show little, if any, strengthening\r\nlikely due in part to the abundant dry air near the cyclone.  In\r\nfact, the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models show Ida's\r\ncirculation becoming elongated or degenerating into a trough within\r\nthe next few days when a frontal boundary stalls just to the north\r\nof the system. The official forecast follows the previous couple of\r\nadvisories in maintaining Ida as a depression through the period,\r\nhowever, it would not be surprising if Ida dissipates before then\r\nlike the GFS and ECMWF models suggest.\r\n\r\nIda is gradually turning to the left as predicted, and the latest\r\ninitial motion estimate is now 320/7 kt.  A continued turn toward\r\nthe west and then southwest is predicted during the next\r\ncouple of days as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the north of\r\nthe cyclone. Thereafter, Ida, or its remnants, is expected to move\r\ngenerally westward at a slightly faster forward speed.  Although\r\nthere remains some spread in the guidance, most of the models agree\r\non this general theme.  The new official track forecast is a little\r\nfaster than the previous one and remains close to the consensus\r\naids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 24.4N  47.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 24.8N  47.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 24.6N  48.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 24.1N  49.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 23.6N  51.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 23.4N  55.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 23.9N  58.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 24.2N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":35,"Date":"2015-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 26 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection again pulsed near and to the east of the center of\r\nIda this evening, but is now waning as shear of around 20 kt\r\ncontinues over the cyclone. The most recent ASCAT missed Ida, so the\r\ninitial intensity remains 30 kt based on persistence.\r\n\r\nThe statistical models continue to suggest that Ida will intensify\r\nlater in the forecast period, while the GFS and ECMWF show the\r\ncirculation weakening and eventually elongating and dissipating by\r\nday 5 as a front impinges on Ida from the north. The NHC forecast\r\ncontinues to follow the solution of the global models given that the\r\ncyclone is currently embedded in a dry environment with moderate\r\nshear. It would also not be surprising if Ida were to dissipate\r\nsooner than forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has been to the left of and slower than the\r\nprevious advisory, and is estimated at 285/04. A continued bend of\r\nIda's track toward the left is forecast as the shallow cyclone comes\r\nunder the influence of an amplifying low-level ridge to the north.\r\nMuch of the guidance has trended to the left and faster this cycle,\r\nand given the change in the initial motion and the trend in the\r\nguidance, the new NHC track is faster and about a half degree south\r\nof the previous one. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF through 48 hours and not far from the GFS after that time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 24.3N  47.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 24.3N  48.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 23.8N  49.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 23.2N  50.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 22.8N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 23.2N  57.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 23.5N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":36,"Date":"2015-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nSince the larger convective burst late yesterday afternoon, Ida has\r\nonly produced a few small areas of showers and thunderstorms\r\novernight.  Satellite images also suggest that the center has become\r\nsomewhat less defined over the past 24 hours.  Based on the decrease\r\nin organization, the initial wind speed has been lowered to 25 kt,\r\nwhich is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity\r\nnumbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nIda is currently in an environment of moderate westerly shear and\r\ndry mid-level air, and little change in strength is anticipated\r\nduring the next few days.  By 72 hours, Ida is forecast to\r\nencounter strong upper-level northerly winds, which should cause\r\nthe system to finally degenerate to a remnant low, however, it would\r\nnot be surprising if this occurred sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/4.  Ida is forecast to turn\r\nwest-southwestward at a faster forward speed by tonight as a\r\nlow-level ridge strengthens to the north of the depression. When the\r\nridge moves eastward in a couple of days, Ida or its remnant should\r\nturn westward.  The new NHC track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 24.3N  48.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 24.2N  48.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 23.6N  50.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 23.2N  52.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 23.2N  54.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 24.0N  58.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 24.2N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ida","Adv":37,"Date":"2015-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nIda is very disorganized this morning.  Visible satellite images\r\nindicate that the circulation of the depression is becoming\r\nelongated from north to south, though the low-level center is\r\nstill distinct.  Deep convection is scattered and not organized,\r\nand this system is barely classifiable using Dvorak metrics.  The\r\ninitial intensity remains 25 kt.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is embedded in a dry atmosphere, which is likely\r\nthe reason why convection is limited.  In addition, the interaction\r\nwith a cold front about 350 n mi to the north of Ida is causing the\r\ncirculation to become stretched as described above.  Since the\r\nfrontal boundary is expected to move closer to Ida during the next\r\nday or so before stalling, it is possible that Ida could open up\r\ninto a trough during that time.  It is also possible that Ida could\r\nbecome a remnant low by then if organized deep convection does not\r\nreturn.  Based on the negative factors for the tropical cyclone,\r\nprediction of when Ida becomes a remnant low and dissipates have\r\nbeen moved up 24 hours from the previous advisory, and these could\r\noccur much sooner than forecast.\r\n\r\nIda has jogged a bit to the north recently, but a long-term motion\r\nis west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  A turn to the west-southwest\r\nis expected later today, followed by a faster westward motion\r\ntomorrow and Tuesday as a low to mid-level ridge builds to the north\r\nof the cyclone. The track guidance has changed little this cycle,\r\nand only small changes were made to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 24.8N  48.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 24.4N  49.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 23.9N  51.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 23.8N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 24.1N  55.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 25.0N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ida","Adv":38,"Date":"2015-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102015\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nIda has lacked organized deep convection for about 15 hours now, and\r\nit no longer meets the convective requirement of a tropical cyclone.\r\nTherefore, Ida is classified as a remnant low and this is the last\r\nadvisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.\r\n\r\nThe circulation of the low has become increasingly elongated today,\r\ndue to the interaction with a cold front a few hundred n mi to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone.  The front is expected to move closer to the\r\nremnant low tonight and Monday, and this will likely cause the\r\ncyclone to open up into a trough within the next few days.\r\n\r\nThe low is moving slowly westward.  A faster west-southwestward\r\nto westward motion is expected during the next couple of days as a\r\nlow to mid-level ridge builds to the north of the system. The latest\r\nofficial track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nAdditional information on the remnants of Ida can be found in High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\r\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 24.5N  48.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 24.1N  50.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 23.9N  52.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 24.0N  55.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 24.5N  57.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nLate-afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that the\r\ncirculation of the low pressure area located midway between the\r\nBahamas and Bermuda has become well defined.  Since the low has\r\nalready had persistent and organized deep convection, the system is\r\nbeing declared a tropical depression.  A 2312 UTC SSMI/S overpass\r\nindicated that the center of the depression has become at least\r\npartially exposed to the northwest of a large convective mass due to\r\nmoderate northwesterly shear.  The initial wind speed is set to 30\r\nkt, based on a T2.0/30 kt classification from TAFB.  The depression\r\nis expected to be blasted by strong north-northwesterly or northerly\r\nwinds associated with the tail of an upper-level trough over the\r\ncentral Atlantic beginning on Monday.  In fact, global models show\r\nthe shear being sufficiently strong enough to result in the cyclone\r\neither becoming a remnant low or dissipating within a few days.  The\r\nintensity forecast is below the multi-model consensus through the\r\nforecast period, closest to the HWRF solution.\r\n\r\nA low- to mid- level ridge north and northeast of the cyclone is\r\nsteering the lower half of the depression's circulation\r\nnorthwestward while increasing northwesterly winds aloft are\r\nopposing this motion.  The net deep-layer mean flow is therefore\r\nproviding for only a slow northwestward motion of 315/02 kt, a\r\nrather uncertain estimate considering the scatter of recent fixes.\r\nThis synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of\r\ndays, resulting in a the cyclone's drifting west-northwestward or\r\nnorthwestward.  The low- to mid-level ridge is forecast to shift\r\neastward in 2-3 days as a trough reaches the eastern seaboard of the\r\nUnited States, and the increasingly shallow system should turn\r\nnorthwestward and north-northwestward at a faster forward speed if\r\nit still exists.  The track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 27.5N  68.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 27.7N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 27.9N  69.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 28.2N  70.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 28.8N  70.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 31.0N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nShortwave and enhanced BD-Curve infrared imagery show little change\r\nin the depression's cloud pattern this morning.  Recently,\r\nhowever, a few bursts of deep convection are beginning to develop\r\nnear the surface center.  Subjective intensity estimates remain\r\nunchanged from the previous advisory as does the initial intensity\r\nof 30 kt. UW-CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model both indicate\r\n10-20 kt of northwesterly shear generated by a high amplitude\r\nupper-level ridge extending northward over the western Atlantic from\r\nthe western Caribbean. Large-scale models show this upper-wind\r\npattern persisting through day 3, which should inhibit any\r\nsignificant strengthening.  Afterward, increasing southwesterly\r\nshear is expected to spread over the eastern seaboard and extreme\r\nwestern Atlantic waters in response to a deep-layer mid-latitude\r\ntrough approaching from the west.  Despite a rather harsh forecast\r\nupper-wind environment, the IVCN intensity consensus model shows\r\nslight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours.  Beyond\r\nthe 96 hour period, the global models indicate either dissipation or\r\nthe cyclone quickly becoming absorbed by the aforementioned\r\nbaroclinic system.  The official forecast is based on the IVCN\r\nconsensus and indicates the cyclone merging with the frontal system\r\nin 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe depression's center has been a bit difficult to find this\r\nmorning, and has been moving erratically, drifting westward, or\r\n275/2 kt.  The cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest\r\nlater today and continue in this general direction for a couple\r\nof days due to high pressure extending over the western\r\nAtlantic.  After that time, a northward turn is forecast with an\r\nincrease in forward speed around day 3 in response to the\r\nabove mentioned frontal system approaching the east coast of the\r\nU.S.  The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the left of the\r\nprevious forecast and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 27.4N  68.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 27.6N  69.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 28.0N  70.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 28.5N  70.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 29.2N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 31.2N  72.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 36.2N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the depression's overall cloud\r\npattern has become better organized since yesterday despite\r\npersistent north- northwesterly shear of about 20 kt.  The exposed\r\nlow-level center is located near the northwestern tip of a curved\r\nband over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. However,\r\nsatellite data indicate that the low- to mid-level centers have\r\nrecently become more separated.  Dvorak intensity estimates are a\r\nconsensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is\r\nheld at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nSmoothing fixes over the last 12 hours yields an initial motion of\r\n300/04, a little faster than before.  The depression is embedded in\r\nlow- to mid-level southeasterly flow around a ridge to its\r\nnortheast, with northwesterly flow aloft.  This synoptic pattern\r\nshould only favor a slow northwestward motion for the next couple of\r\ndays.  After 48 hours, the cyclone should reach the western end of\r\nthe low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and begin to respond to the\r\nsoutherly and southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough\r\nnearing the U.S. east coast.  This change to the steering should\r\nresult in a gradual northward turn with increasing forward speed.\r\nThe new track forecast is a little left of the previous one at 48\r\nhours and a little faster, close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF\r\nmodel solutions.\r\n\r\nGFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model output indicates a continuation of\r\nmoderately strong north-northwesterly shear over the cyclone for the\r\nnext day or so.  Even though other large-scale factors are generally\r\nconducive for intensification during this time, shear of this\r\nmagnitude suggests that only slow intensification is possible. While\r\nthe shear should decrease some by 36 hours, other environmental\r\nfactors are not forecast to be as conducive and little further\r\nstrengthening is indicated.  Large-scale models depict the cyclone\r\nmerging with a frontal zone offshore of the Mid-Atlantic or New\r\nEngland coasts by 96 hours, and the system is therefore shown to be\r\npost-tropical at that time.  An alternate lower probability scenario\r\nis that the cyclone could race ahead of the frontal boundary and\r\nretain its tropical characteristics for a bit longer. The new\r\nintensity forecast is above the previous one through 24 hours and\r\nnear the multi-model consensus but below the statistical-dynamical\r\nguidance after that time due to more reliance on the global models\r\nwhich show little further intensification.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 27.8N  69.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 28.1N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 28.5N  70.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 29.1N  71.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 29.6N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 32.0N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 37.7N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has become well exposed due to continued\r\nnorthwesterly shear of 20 kt or more, with the mid-level\r\ncenter displaced well to the southeast of the low-level center.\r\nFlight-level and SFMR-observed wind data from an Air Force\r\nreconnaissance aircraft showed that the maximum winds remain near\r\n30 kt.  This is also consistent with the latest Dvorak estimates\r\nfrom SAB and TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression has been moving well to the left of\r\nthe previous track, with the initial motion estimated to be 270/05\r\nkt.  In addition to the more westward initial motion, there have\r\nbeen significant changes in the model guidance, with the latest\r\nECMWF forecast taking the cyclone much farther south and west than\r\nthe GFS in 3-5 days.  This appears to be the result of enhanced\r\nmid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone in the ECMWF at that\r\ntime frame.  This has necessitated a significant southwestward\r\nshift of the official forecast, although for continuity the new NHC\r\ntrack does not take the cyclone as far to the southwest as the\r\nECMWF.  Given the large spread now seen in the dynamical track\r\nguidance, confidence in the track forecast is rather low.\r\n\r\nThe strong shear over the system is likely to continue for at least\r\nthe next 12-24 hours and given the large displacement between the\r\nlow- and mid-level centers, no intensification is anticipated in\r\nthe short term.  The dynamical guidance indicates some relaxation\r\nof the shear in a day or two, so the official forecast shows the\r\ncyclone strengthening into a tropical storm later on Tuesday.  This\r\nis close to the intensity model consensus through 48 hours, and a\r\nlittle below it thereafter.  Given the large uncertainty in the\r\ntrack forecast, there is also uncertainty as to what kind of\r\nenvironment the cyclone will encounter during the forecast period,\r\nwhich also leads to low confidence in the official intensity\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 27.5N  70.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 27.7N  71.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 27.9N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 28.3N  72.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 28.6N  73.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 30.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 33.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 38.5N  73.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Hayes\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the shower and thunderstorm activity\r\nassociated with the depression has increased and become better\r\norganized during the past several hours.  In addition, the low-level\r\ncenter now appears to have moved closer to the convection than it\r\nwas earlier. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB\r\nwere 2.5/35 kt, and the initial intensity is set at that value,\r\nmaking the cyclone Tropical Storm Joaquin.  This intensity analysis\r\nalso agrees with the reconnaissance aircraft data from earlier today\r\nthat showed winds just under tropical-storm force.\r\n\r\nThe center of Joaquin has been moving southwestward during the last\r\nseveral hours, but it is expected to begin moving slowly westward\r\novernight.  This westward track is forecast to continue for a couple\r\nof days while a mid-level ridge remains to the north of the storm.\r\nAfter that time, a trough is anticipated to amplify over the eastern\r\nUnited States, which should cause Joaquin to turn northward and\r\naccelerate.  There is considerable spread in the models, mainly due\r\nto the timing of when and how fast the storm makes the northward\r\nturn, due to differences in the evolution of the trough.  In\r\ngeneral, the guidance envelope has shifted southward for the first\r\ncouple of days and then westward after that time.  The official\r\ntrack forecast has been adjusted accordingly, but additional\r\nsouthward and westward adjustment may be needed in subsequent\r\nadvisories.\r\n\r\nNorthwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Joaquin,\r\ncausing most of the thunderstorm activity to be located to the\r\nsoutheast of the center.  The shear is expected to lessen some\r\nduring the next couple of days, which in combination with warm water\r\nand high relative humidity values should allow Joaquin to\r\nstrengthen.  The official intensity forecast is raised from the\r\nprevious one, but is lower than the intensity model consensus at\r\ndays 3-5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 26.7N  70.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 26.9N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 27.1N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 27.2N  72.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 27.4N  73.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 28.6N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 32.4N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 38.0N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Joaquin remains exposed on the northwestern\r\nedge of the deep convection due to about 20 kt of shear. A pair of\r\nASCAT passes around 01-02Z showed peak winds of around 35 kt, and\r\nthat remains the intensity for this advisory, in agreement with the\r\nlatest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The ASCAT data were also used\r\nto adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii.\r\n\r\nAfter moving quickly southwestward earlier, the center of Joaquin\r\nappears to be moving more slowly westward at about 4 kt. The track\r\nforecast remains highly uncertain, and if anything, the spread in\r\nthe track model guidance is larger now beyond 48 hours due to\r\nuncertainty in the evolution of the synoptic-scale flow and the\r\nstructure of Joaquin. In particular, the global models are having\r\ntrouble with the evolution of a deep layer trough over the\r\nsoutheastern U.S. late in the forecast period, with added\r\nuncertainty about the structure of Joaquin and how it might interact\r\nwith the trough. The latest runs of the UKMET and ECMWF bring\r\nJoaquin farther southwest early in the period and then show a\r\nnorthward and northeastward motion, respectively, ahead of the\r\ntrough at days 4 and 5. The GFS shows a weaker Joaquin being\r\nabsorbed into a frontal zone off the U.S. east coast in 3 to 4 days,\r\nwhile the HWRF and GFDL continue to show a faster northward and\r\nthen northwestward track. In the first 48 hours, the new NHC track\r\nis a little to the south of the previous one accounting for the\r\ninitial position and motion and a trend toward the multi-model\r\nconsensus. At days 3 through 5, the official forecast is a little to\r\nthe right of and slower than the previous one given the large\r\nspread in the track guidance. Needless to say, confidence in the\r\ndetails of the track forecast, especially beyond 48 hours, is\r\nextremely low.\r\n\r\nThe SHIPS model output shows moderate to strong northerly shear\r\ncontinuing over the cyclone for the next 24 to 36 hours, which\r\nshould only allow for slow strengthening. After that time, the shear\r\ndecreases a bit and the cyclone could strengthen a little more while\r\nover warm waters. However, there is a lot of spread in the intensity\r\nguidance as well. As noted above, the latest run of the GFS\r\ndissipates Joaquin in 3 to 4 days. On the other hand, the ECMWF and\r\nUKMET show the cyclone deepening considerably in the short term,\r\nwhile the HWRF and GFDL show more strengthening later in the period.\r\nGiven the uncertainty in Joaquin's structure and track, the new NHC\r\nforecast remains conservative, and is closest to the SHIPS model and\r\nbelow the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 26.6N  70.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 26.6N  71.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 26.7N  72.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 26.8N  72.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 27.1N  73.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 28.5N  73.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 32.0N  73.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 36.5N  73.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nCORRECTED INTENSITY TO 40 KT IN FIRST PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern\r\nof the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24\r\nhours ago.  The low-level center is situated near the northern side\r\nof the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear.  The\r\nupper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of\r\nthe system, and restricted over the northern part of the\r\ncirculation.  The current intensity is conservatively set at 40 kt,\r\nwhich is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates.  An Air Force\r\nplane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should\r\nprovide a better estimate of intensity.\r\n\r\nBased on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues\r\nto be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt.  The forecast track in\r\nthis advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an\r\noverall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72\r\nhours.  Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern,\r\nbut a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should\r\nallow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward.  This\r\npushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the\r\ndeterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good\r\nlikelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas,\r\nand then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast.  The\r\n00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns\r\nthe storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond\r\n72 hours.  The official forecast is to the left of the previous\r\nforecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5\r\ndays.  It should be repeated that the confidence in the track\r\nforecast is very low.\r\n\r\nThe vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease\r\nin 1 to 2 days.  This should allow for additional strengthening,\r\nwhich is reflected in the official forecast.  The NHC wind speed\r\npredictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests\r\nthat Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 26.5N  70.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 26.4N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 26.3N  72.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 26.2N  73.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 26.1N  73.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 26.0N  74.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 29.0N  73.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Burke\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the storm has become better organized during\r\nthe day, with the low level center now embedded inside the northern\r\nedge of the main area of deep convection.  Animation of cirrus\r\nmotions suggest that upper-level outflow is becoming a little more\r\nprominent over the northern portion of the circulation, and this is\r\nconsistent with decreasing northerly shear.  Flight-level,\r\ndropsonde, and SFMR wind observations from an Air Force\r\nreconnaissance aircraft indicate that Joaquin has strengthened and\r\nthe intensity is now estimated to be 55 kt.  With a more favorable\r\nupper-level wind environment now expected to prevail, the official\r\nforecast calls for more strengthening than the previous advisories.\r\nJoaquin is expected to become a hurricane within 24 hours, with\r\nadditional intensification likely thereafter.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the latest SHIPS model output.\r\n\r\nFixes from the aircraft show a southward component of motion and\r\nthe initial motion estimate is now 240/4 kt.  Joaquin is currently\r\nsouth of the southwestern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge.  The\r\nECMWF model shows this ridging to the north of the tropical cyclone\r\nto be more prominent over the next few days than the other dynamical\r\nmodels.  Consequently, the ECMWF takes Joaquin more to the\r\nwest and southwest through 72 hours than any of the other available\r\nguidance.  Later in the forecast period, there is a significant\r\ndivergence in the track guidance.  The HWRF and U.K. Met Office\r\nmodels forecast Joaquin to move over the east coast of the United\r\nStates later in the period whereas the ECMWF and GFS keep the system\r\nwell offshore.  The official forecast lies between these\r\npossibilities and is similar to the latest Florida State University\r\nSuperensemble solution.\r\n\r\nInterests in the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this storm.\r\nWatches or warnings may be issued for portions of these islands\r\nlater this evening.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 26.0N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 25.8N  71.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 25.5N  72.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 25.1N  73.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 24.8N  73.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 25.0N  74.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 29.0N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to become better\r\norganized this evening.  The low-level center is located within the\r\nnorthwestern portion of the deep convection and the outflow has\r\ncontinued to expand over the northern semicircle, which suggests\r\nthat the shear continues to decrease.  The latest satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5 or 55 kt on the\r\nDvorak scale.  Based on the earlier reconnaissance aircraft data and\r\nthe continued increase in organization this evening, the initial\r\nwind speed has been raised to 60 kt.  Joaquin is forecast to be over\r\nwarm water and in an increasingly favorable upper-level wind pattern\r\nduring the next day or so.  These conditions favor intensification\r\nand the NHC forecast calls for Joaquin to become a hurricane within\r\nthe next 12 hours.  The upper-level winds are shown by the global\r\nmodels to become quite conducive for strengthening by 36 hours as an\r\nupper-level anticyclone builds over the system, and additional\r\nstrengthening is anticipated.  The new NHC forecast is a bit\r\nhigher than the previous advisory, and is close to the IVCN\r\nintensity consensus aid.  It should be noted, that the UKMET, GFS,\r\nand ECMWF models all significantly deepen Joaquin during the next\r\nfew days, and the NHC forecast could be somewhat conservative.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is moving west-southwestward at about 5 kt.  This general\r\nmotion is forecast to continue during the next 24-36 hours while the\r\ncyclone remains to the southwest of a weak mid-level ridge. During\r\nthis time, the center of Joaquin is forecast to move near or over\r\nportions of the Central Bahamas.  After 48 hours, a deepening mid-\r\nto upper-level trough over the southeastern United States is\r\nexpected to cause a turn toward the north or north-northeast with an\r\nincrease in forward speed.  There remains large spread in the\r\nguidance at days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF showing a northeastward\r\nmotion toward Bermuda.  Meanwhile, the 18Z GFS shifted significantly\r\nwestward and is close to the UKMET and HWRF, which are along the\r\nwestern edge of the guidance envelope.  The NHC track has been\r\nshifted westward, but it is not as far west as the multi-model\r\nconsensus. The new track is fairly close to the ECMWF-Ensemble Mean.\r\n\r\nThe government of the Bahamas has issued a Hurricane Watch for the\r\nCentral Bahamas.  Additional watches or warnings may be required\r\nearly Wednesday.\r\n\r\nAt this time it is very hard to gauge the long-range potential\r\nimpacts of Joaquin in the United States.  The environmental steering\r\ncurrents are complex and are not being handled in a consistent\r\nmanner by the forecast models.  A wide range of outcomes are\r\npossible and it is simply too soon to say what impacts, if any,\r\nJoaquin will have on the United States.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 25.8N  71.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 25.5N  72.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 25.2N  73.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 24.8N  74.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 24.9N  74.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 26.7N  74.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 31.3N  72.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 35.5N  72.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nThe coldest convective cloud tops are located to the east of the\r\nestimated center position, but there have been hints of an eye in\r\ninfrared imagery overnight. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 60 kt. An\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is on its way to\r\ninvestigate Joaquin this morning. Conditions are expected to be\r\nconducive for intensification during the next few days, with Joaquin\r\nmoving over very warm waters with shear steadily decreasing. The\r\nhurricane intensity guidance and the latest runs of the GFS, UKMET,\r\nand ECMWF all show Joaquin intensifying, and in fact, the global\r\nmodels show the central pressure in the 950s or lower. The NHC\r\nforecast is near the latest intensity model consensus, and has\r\nJoaquin peaking in 72 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be\r\nmoving into a higher shear environment and over cooler waters, which\r\nshould result in slow weakening.\r\n\r\nJoaquin continues to move west-southwestward under the influence of\r\na short-wave ridge to its north, and the initial motion estimate is\r\n245/05. This motion should continue for the next 24 hours, and\r\nJoaquin is expected to then turn slowly westward as the ridge\r\nweakens on Thursday. The UKMET and ECMWF continue to show Joaquin\r\nmoving farther southwestward into the central Bahamas than the rest\r\nof the guidance. The new NHC track in the short range is a little\r\nsouth of the previous one, but north of the UKMET/ECMWF solution.\r\nGiven this new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a\r\nHurricane Warning for the central Bahamas and a Hurricane Watch for\r\npart of the northwestern Bahamas.\r\n\r\nAfter 36 hours, Joaquin is forecast to turn northwestward and then\r\nnorthward as it interacts with a deep-layer trough that cuts off\r\nover the southeastern United States in about 3 days. Much of the\r\ndeterministic guidance shows Joaquin turning northwestward\r\ntoward the mid-Atlantic coast by days 4 and 5. However, the ECMWF\r\ncontinues to show an offshore solution with a track west of Bermuda,\r\nbut has shifted to the left this cycle by about 150 miles at day 5.\r\nWhile the overall synoptic pattern is similar between the models,\r\nthe eventual track of Joaquin appears sensitive to just how far\r\nsouthwest it moves in the first 36 to 48 hours and how this affect\r\nthe eventual interaction with the upper-level low. The GFS, HWRF,\r\nand GFDL show a sharp turn back to toward the coast in 4 days, while\r\nthe ECMWF is slower to bring Joaquin northward and ejects the\r\ncyclone toward the northeast. The UKMET is between those two\r\nscenarios with a broader turn back toward the coast by day 5. There\r\nis still ensemble support for a wide range of solutions, so\r\nconfidence in any deterministic model solution remains quite low.\r\nThe NHC track has been nudged a little to the left this cycle to\r\nreflect the westward shift in the guidance, but lies on the eastern\r\nside of the guidance envelope given the ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nConfidence in the details of the track forecast late in the period\r\nremains very low, since the environmental steering currents are\r\ncomplex and not being handled in a consistent manner by the models.\r\nGiven that a wide range of outcomes is possible, it is too soon to\r\nsay what impacts, if any, Joaquin will have on the United States.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 25.4N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 25.1N  73.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 24.7N  73.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 24.7N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 25.2N  74.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 28.3N  73.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 33.0N  73.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 37.0N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nJoaquin has continued to strengthen overnight.  Satellite imagery\r\nshows that the convection has become more symmetric, and recent\r\nvisible images show what might be an eye trying to form.  An Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb flight-\r\nlevel winds of 83 kt and estimated 70 kt surface winds from the\r\nStepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, with a central pressure of\r\n971 mb estimated from the aircraft data.  Based on these, the\r\ninitial intensity is increased to 70 kt.\r\n\r\nJoaquin has moved a little south of the previous track with an\r\ninitial motion of 230/5.  The shortwave ridge causing this motion\r\nis expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong\r\ndeep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States.\r\nThis is expected to cause the hurricane to turn northward by 72\r\nhours.  There is disagreement in the track guidance between the\r\nECMWF and the other dynamical models.  The majority of the guidance\r\nforecasts Joaquin to turn west of north after 48-72 hours, with the\r\nstorm moving inland over the mid-Atlantic states and merging with\r\nthe trough. On the other hand, the ECMWF forecast the hurricane to\r\nmove out to sea between North America and Bermuda.  The ECMWF\r\nforecasts Joaquin to move more to the south during the first 24-48\r\nhours than the other models.  In addition, it shows the hurricane\r\ninteracting with an upper-level low to its northeast that results in\r\na more eastward motion after 48 hours.  The new forecast track,\r\nwhich is similar to the previous track, leans more toward the\r\nnon-ECMWF guidance.  However, out of deference to the ECMWF, it\r\nlies to the east of the center of the guidance envelope and the\r\nconsensus models.  The NOAA G-IV jet is scheduled to fly a synoptic\r\nsurveillance mission this afternoon, which, along with special\r\nrawinsonde launches over the eastern U. S., hopefully will reduce\r\nthe spread of the guidance.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is expected to remain in an environment of moderate\r\nnortheasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours.  However,\r\nsince it has been steadily strengthening in such an environment,\r\nthere is no obvious reason to think it will stop doing so.  After\r\n36 hours, the hurricane is likely to move into an area of divergent\r\nsoutherly upper-level winds associated with the eastern U. S.\r\ntrough.  While there is uncertainty as to how much shear should\r\noccur, it is expected that additional intensification could occur\r\nthrough 72 hours.  Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for\r\nJoaquin to peak as a major hurricane in about 72 hours, and it is\r\npossible it could be stronger than currently forecast.  After 72\r\nhours, increasing shear and cold air intrusion should cause\r\nweakening and the start of extratropical transition.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. Confidence in the details of the track forecast late in the\r\nperiod remains low, since the environmental steering currents are\r\ncomplex and the model guidance is inconsistent.  A wide range of\r\noutcomes is possible, from a direct impact of a major hurricane\r\nalong the U.S. east coast to a track of Joaquin out to sea away from\r\nthe coast.  It is therefore way too soon to talk about specific\r\nwind, rain, or surge impacts from Joaquin in the U.S.\r\n\r\n2. Should the threat to the U.S. increase, any further adjustments\r\nof the forecast to the west would likely be accompanied by an\r\nincrease in the forecast forward speed, with impacts along the coast\r\noccurring sooner than currently forecast. A hurricane watch could\r\nbe required for portions of the U.S. coast as early as Thursday\r\nevening.\r\n\r\n3. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy\r\nrains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system.  This\r\ninclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,\r\nwhich could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head\r\ntoward the coast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 24.7N  72.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 24.3N  73.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 24.1N  74.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 24.4N  74.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 25.3N  74.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 28.5N  73.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 34.0N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 38.5N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the organization of Joaquin during\r\nthe past several hours.  While the hurricane continues to produce\r\ncloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not become\r\nbetter defined since the last advisory.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisory\r\nintensity is now 75 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 225/7.  The shortwave ridge causing this\r\nmotion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong\r\ndeep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States.\r\nThus, a generally southwestward motion is expected for the next 36\r\nhours or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the trough\r\nbecomes the dominant steering mechanism.  There is an increased\r\ndisagreement between the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and NAVGEM models\r\nversus the ECMWF since the last advisory.  The ECMWF has continued\r\nits forecast of showing a northeastward motion after 72 hours,\r\ntaking Joaquin just west of Bermuda and out to sea.  The other\r\nmodels have all shifted their forecasts to the left and now\r\ncall for landfall in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states,\r\nfollowed by merger with the baroclinic trough.  Given the shift in\r\nthe non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to\r\nthe forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of\r\nJoaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states.  Due to\r\nthe use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies\r\nnear the various consensus models.  However, it lies well to the\r\neast of the GFS and the other similar models.  The NOAA G-IV jet is\r\ncurrently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with\r\nspecial rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThere is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since\r\nthe last advisory.  Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment\r\nof moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours,\r\npossibly including strong winds seen at 400 mb in recent dropsondes\r\nfrom the G-IV aircraft.  However, since it has been steadily\r\nstrengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to\r\nthink it will stop doing so.  After 36 hours, the hurricane is\r\nlikely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds\r\nassociated with the eastern U. S. trough.  While there is\r\nuncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that\r\nadditional intensification could occur through at least 48 hours.\r\nBased on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a\r\nmajor hurricane in 48-72 hours, and it is possible it could be\r\nstronger than currently forecast.  After 72 hours, increasing shear,\r\ncold air intrusion, and land interaction should cause weakening and\r\nthe start of extratropical transition.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Preparations to protect life and property within the warning\r\nareas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.\r\n\r\n2.  A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this\r\nafternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic\r\nstates and the Carolinas.  However, confidence in the details of the\r\nforecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally\r\nexcellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States\r\neast coast.   The range of possible outcomes is still large, and\r\nincludes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the\r\nCarolinas.\r\n\r\n3.  Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with\r\nas much data as possible.  The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of\r\nmissions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service\r\nis launching extra balloon soundings.\r\n\r\n4.  Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days\r\naway, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge\r\nimpacts from Joaquin in the United States.   Even if Joaquin stays\r\nwell out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate\r\ncoastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and\r\nnortheastern states through the weekend.\r\n\r\n5.  A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be\r\nrequired as early as Thursday evening.\r\n\r\n6.  Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy\r\nrains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system.  This\r\ninclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,\r\nwhich could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head\r\ntoward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the\r\nhurricane.  Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas\r\neven if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 24.3N  73.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 24.0N  73.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 23.9N  74.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 24.5N  75.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 25.8N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 30.5N  74.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 36.0N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 38.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nJoaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the\r\nsatellite presentation continuing to improve this evening.  The eye\r\nhas recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric\r\ncentral dense overcast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has\r\nmeasured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface\r\nwinds from the SFMR.  These data support an initial intensity of\r\n100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015\r\nAtlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have\r\ndelayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data.\r\n\r\nJoaquin continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial\r\nmotion estimate of 220/5 kt.  The hurricane is forecast to move\r\nslowly southwestward or west-southwestward for another 24 hours or\r\nso while it remains to the south of a narrow northeast to southwest\r\noriented ridge.  This ridge is expected to weaken by Friday as a\r\ntrough deepens and cuts off over the southeastern United States.\r\nThis should cause Joaquin to turn northward within 48 hours. The 18Z\r\nruns of the GFS and HWRF remain in general agreement with the 12Z\r\nUKMET and Canadian models moving Joaquin around the northeastern\r\nportion of the cut-off low and bring the hurricane inland over the\r\nCarolinas or mid-Atlantic states.  The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier\r\nby showing a track toward the northeast out to sea.  The NHC\r\nforecast continues to follow the trend of the bulk of the guidance\r\nand takes Joaquin toward the U.S east coast. The NHC track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and is once again east of the\r\nmulti-model consensus.  The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently\r\ncompleted its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected\r\nduring this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models,\r\nhopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance.\r\n\r\nThe upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the\r\nglobal models to become even more conducive during the next couple\r\nof days.  This favors additional intensification, with the only\r\npossible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the\r\nslow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some\r\nfluctuations in intensity.  By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly\r\nshear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause\r\ngradual weakening.  The updated NHC intensity forecast has been\r\nsignificantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to\r\nthe higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the\r\nlower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first\r\n36-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Preparations to protect life and property within the warning\r\nareas in the Central Bahamas should be completed now.\r\n\r\n2.  Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains\r\nlow, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin\r\nfar away from the United States east coast.   The range of possible\r\noutcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major\r\nhurricane landfall in the Carolinas.\r\n\r\n3.  Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with\r\nas much data as possible.  The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of\r\nmissions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service\r\nhas begun launching extra balloon soundings.\r\n\r\n4.  Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days\r\naway, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge\r\nimpacts from Joaquin in the United States.  Regardless of Joaquin's\r\ntrack, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal\r\nflooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern\r\nstates through the weekend.\r\n\r\n5.  A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be\r\nrequired as early as Thursday evening.\r\n\r\n6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing\r\nheavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These\r\nheavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if\r\nthe center of Joaquin stays offshore.  The resulting inland flood\r\npotential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head\r\ntoward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is\r\npossible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 23.8N  73.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 23.5N  73.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 23.6N  74.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 24.7N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 26.6N  74.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 31.6N  74.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 36.2N  75.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 38.5N  76.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015\r\n\r\nData from the last aircraft mission indicated the Joaquin had\r\nstrengthened a little more, and the intensity of 105 kt is supported\r\nby flight-level, SFMR, and dropsonde data from the plane. The\r\ncentral pressure of 948 mb is based on a dropsonde that measured 950\r\nmb with 20 kt of wind. The satellite presentation of the hurricane\r\ncontinues to gradually improve, with cold tops expanding near and\r\nwest of the center, although the eye is not yet apparent in infrared\r\nimagery. Another hurricane hunter aircraft will be investigating\r\nJoaquin later this morning.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24\r\nhours while over very warm waters and with decreasing vertical\r\nshear. After that time, there could be some fluctuations in\r\nintensity due to eyewall replacement cycles and perhaps some\r\nupwelling of cold waters due to the slow motion of the hurricane.\r\nAfter 48 hours, cooler SSTs and increasing shear should result in\r\ngradual weakening as Joaquin moves northward. The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and close to the HWRF\r\nthrough 24 hours. After that time, the NHC prediction is above the\r\nintensity consensus since the official forecast keeps the cyclone\r\noffshore, while the remainder of the intensity guidance shows\r\nweakening due to decay over land.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion of the hurricane is still toward the southwest\r\nor 230/04 under the influence of a narrow ridge to the north. A\r\nslow motion with a bending of the track toward the west and then\r\nthe west-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours as the\r\nridge weakens. During this time the NHC track has been adjusted\r\nsouthward following the latest trend in the guidance. The slow\r\nmotion of Joaquin will mean a prolonged period of hurricane\r\nconditions in portions of the central Bahamas, along with very heavy\r\nrain and storm surge.\r\n\r\nBy 36 hours, Joaquin should begin to move faster toward the north as\r\nit comes under the influence of a deep-layer trough that cuts off\r\nover the southeastern United States. There have been big changes in\r\nsome of the track guidance overnight, perhaps due to data from the\r\nsynoptic surveillance mission flown by the NOAA G-IV jet for the 00Z\r\nmodel cycle. In particular, the GFS and UKMET have shifted eastward\r\nby several hundred miles in 3 to 4 days relative to their previous\r\nsolutions. Overall for this cycle there has been a spreading out of\r\nthe guidance envelope beyond 2 days, with a wide range of solutions\r\nshown. The HWRF and GFDL are the fastest to bring Joaquin north out\r\nof the Bahamas and still show a sharp westward turn taking the\r\ncyclone inland over the Carolinas in 3 to 4 days. The GFS has\r\ntrended slower coming out of the Bahamas and now shows a track\r\ntoward Long Island and southern New England in 5 days, with the\r\nUKMET farther offshore. The latest ECMWF is still the slowest and\r\nfarthest east with a track just west of Bermuda in 4 to 5 days.\r\nGiven the large shift in some of the guidance, the NHC track has\r\nbeen adjusted just a little to the east and slower at days 3 through\r\n5, and now lies on the left side of the multi-model consensus and\r\nleft of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF solutions. Confidence remains very\r\nlow in the eventual track of Joaquin and any potential impacts for\r\nthe United States, and further adjustments to the NHC track may be\r\nneeded later today.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas\r\nshould be complete.  The slow motion of Joaquin during the next 24\r\nto 36 hours will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds,\r\nstorm surge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands.\r\n\r\n2.  Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains\r\nlow, as there have been some large changes in the model guidance\r\novernight.  The range of possible outcomes is still large, and\r\nthe possibility of a hurricane landfall in the Carolinas still\r\ncannot be ruled out.\r\n\r\n3.  Efforts continue to provide the forecast models with as much\r\ndata as possible.  The NOAA G-IV jet flew the first in a series of\r\nmissions in the storm environment last night, and these missions\r\nwill continue today.  The National Weather Service also continues to\r\nlaunch extra balloon soundings.\r\n\r\n4.  Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days\r\naway, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge\r\nimpacts from Joaquin in the United States.  Regardless of Joaquin's\r\ntrack, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal\r\nflooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern\r\nstates through the weekend.\r\n\r\n5.  A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be\r\nrequired as early as tonight.\r\n\r\n6.  Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing\r\nheavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These\r\nheavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if\r\nthe center of Joaquin stays offshore.  The resulting inland flood\r\npotential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head\r\ntoward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is\r\npossible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 23.4N  73.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 23.1N  74.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 23.4N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 25.0N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 26.8N  74.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 32.5N  74.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 36.0N  74.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 39.0N  74.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported 700-mb\r\nflight-level winds of 119 kt in the northwestern eyewall, with a\r\n117 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave\r\nRadiometer in the southwestern eyewall.  The latest central\r\npressure was 942 mb.  Based on these data, the advisory intensity\r\nis increased to 110 kt.  Satellite imagery indicates that an eye is\r\ntrying to form in the central dense overcast, and that the cirrus\r\noutflow is good in all directions.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is expected to intensify a little more in the next 12 to 24\r\nhours as it remains over very warm waters and in an environment of\r\ndecreasing vertical shear.  After that time, there could be some\r\nfluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles.  There\r\nis some uncertainty in the intensity forecast in the 48-96 hour\r\nperiod.  The statistical models suggest that Joaquin should weaken\r\ndue to increasing shear.  However, several of the global models\r\nforecast the hurricane to move into an area of strong upper-level\r\ndivergence and show a falling central pressure.  The new forecast\r\nwill continue to show weakening during this time, but it would not\r\nbe a surprise if it is stronger than currently forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 220/5.  Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a developing\r\ndeep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern United States.\r\nThe dynamical models forecast this trough to become a cut-off low as\r\nit moves southeastward and weakens the ridge.  This pattern\r\nevolution should cause Joaquin to turn northwestward in 24 hours or\r\nso and then turn northward.  After 36 hours, the guidance remains\r\nvery divergent.  The Canadian, GFDL, HWRF, and NAVGEM models\r\nforecast Joaquin to turn northwestward and make landfall over the\r\nCarolinas and mid-Atlantic States.  The ECMWF continues to forecast\r\na slower northeastward motion taking Joaquin near Bermuda and out to\r\nsea. The UKMET and GFS are in between these extremes showing a\r\ngenerally northward motion.  Given the spread and the possibility\r\nthat the 1200 UTC guidance could show additional changes, the\r\nforecast track after 36 hours is nudged only slightly to the east at\r\nthis time. The new track lies to the east of the landfalling models,\r\nbut to the west of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF, and the various consensus\r\nmodels. Further adjustments to the track may be needed later today\r\ndepending on how the models do (or do not) change.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Preparations to protect life and property in the central Bahamas\r\nshould be complete.  The slow motion of Joaquin over the next day or\r\nso will bring a prolonged period of hurricane force winds, storm\r\nsurge, and very heavy rainfall to those islands.\r\n\r\n2.  Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours is\r\nstill low, since there have been some large changes in the model\r\nguidance overnight and a large spread in the model solutions\r\nremains, with potential impacts from the Carolinas through New\r\nEngland.  It is also possible that Joaquin will remain far from the\r\nU.S. east coast.  A hurricane watch for the U.S. coast would likely\r\nnot occur until at least Friday morning.\r\n\r\n3.  Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as\r\npossible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the\r\nstorm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.\r\n\r\n4.  It's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge\r\nimpacts from Joaquin in the United States.  Regardless of Joaquin's\r\ntrack, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal\r\nflooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern\r\nstates through the weekend.\r\n\r\n5.  Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing\r\nheavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These\r\nheavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if\r\nthe center of Joaquin stays offshore.  The resulting inland flood\r\npotential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head\r\ntoward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is\r\npossible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 23.0N  73.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 22.9N  74.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 23.7N  74.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 25.2N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 27.5N  73.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 32.0N  73.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 40.0N  72.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported\r\n700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt in the southwestern eyewall,\r\nwith a subsequent 114-kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped\r\nFrequency Microwave Radiometer in the southeastern eyewall.  The\r\nlast central pressure extrapolated from the aircraft data was 936\r\nmb.  In addition, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,\r\nand CIMSS are now in the 115-127 kt range.  Based on these data, the\r\nintensity was increased to 115 kt at 1800 UTC, making Joaquin a\r\nCategory 4 hurricane.  While this advisory will not increase the\r\nintensity any further, it is expected that the next aircraft\r\narriving in the hurricane near 0000 UTC will find a stronger system.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is expected to intensify a little more during the next 12\r\nhours or so as it remains over very warm waters and in an\r\nenvironment of decreasing vertical shear.  After that time, there\r\ncould be some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement\r\ncycles.  While there remains some uncertainty regarding the\r\nintensity in the 48-96 hour range, the new forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous forecast in calling for a steady weakening\r\nduring this period.  Overall, the intensity forecast lies near the\r\nupper edge of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nJoaquin has moved with a more westward component during the past few\r\nhours and the initial motion is now 235/5.  Water vapor imagery\r\nshows a mid- to upper-level ridge north of the hurricane, with a\r\ndeveloping deep-layer trough over the eastern and southeastern\r\nUnited States. The dynamical models forecast this trough to become a\r\ncut-off low as it moves southeastward and weakens the ridge.  This\r\npattern evolution should cause Joaquin to turn northward in 12-24\r\nhours. The guidance after 48 hours has changed somewhat since the\r\nlast advisory, with the GFS and the UKMET moving farther to the east\r\nand lying closer to the ECMWF.  In addition, the HWRF has made a\r\nbig jump to the east and now shows an offshore track.  These changes\r\nhave pushed the consensus models farther eastward.\r\nThe Canadian, GFDL, and NAVGEM models are holdouts, however - still\r\ncalling for Joaquin to interact with the United States trough and\r\nturn northwestward toward the U. S. coast.  The new forecast track\r\nis adjusted to the east of the previous forecast between 48-120\r\nhours, but it still lies well to the left of the GFS, UKMET, ECMWF,\r\nHWRF, and the consensus models. Further eastward adjustments to the\r\ntrack are likely.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions\r\nwill continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well\r\ninto Friday.\r\n\r\n2.  A strong majority of the forecast models are now in agreement on\r\na track farther away from the United States east coast.   We are\r\nbecoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states\r\nwill avoid the direct effects from Joaquin.  However, we cannot yet\r\ncompletely rule out direct impacts along on the east coast, and\r\nresidents there should continue to follow the progress of Joaquin\r\nover the next couple of days.\r\n\r\n3.  Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as\r\npossible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the\r\nstorm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.\r\n\r\n4.  Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds\r\nassociated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate\r\ncoastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and\r\nnortheastern states through the weekend.  In addition, very heavy\r\nrains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding\r\nover portions of the Atlantic coastal states.  Please see products\r\nissued by local NWS Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 23.0N  74.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 23.2N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 24.4N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 25.9N  74.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 28.4N  73.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 33.0N  72.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 37.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 41.0N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe eye of Joaquin contracted in satellite imagery late this\r\nafternoon, but has become obscured by cirrus clouds since that time.\r\nRecent microwave imagery and aircraft observations have not shown\r\nany indications of an eyewall replacement, but the intensity appears\r\nto have leveled off for now.  The aircraft has measured peak 700-mb\r\nflight-level winds of 123 kt and reliable SFMR surface winds of 116\r\nkt, which support an initial wind speed of 115 kt.  Satellite images\r\nshow that the outflow is well established over the hurricane and\r\nsome additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours\r\nor so.  After that time, there could be some fluctuations in\r\nintensity due to eyewall replacement cycles.  Joaquin is forecast to\r\nencounter increasing southwesterly shear in 2 to 3 days, which is\r\nexpected to cause some weakening during that time. However, Joaquin\r\nis expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane for the next\r\nseveral days. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of\r\nthe guidance in the short-term, and is close to the intensity\r\nconsensus throughout the remainder of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nRecent reconnaissance fixes suggest that Joaquin has turned westward\r\nand slowed down, with an initial motion of 260/3.  The mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge that has been steering Joaquin southwestward is\r\nexpected to quickly weaken overnight while a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough over the southeastern United States deepens and cuts off.\r\nThis should cause Joaquin to turn northward on Friday, and move\r\nnorth-northeastward at a faster forward speed Friday night and\r\nSaturday.  The model envelope has again shifted eastward, with the\r\nGFDL and NAVGEM models now joining the other dynamical models which\r\nkeep Joaquin offshore of the United States east coast.  This has\r\nrequired another eastward shift to the NHC forecast, but it still\r\nlies to the west of the multi-model consensus and the most recent\r\nruns of the GFS and ECMWF models.  The updated track is closest to\r\nthe GFS ensemble mean.  Additional eastward adjustments could be\r\nrequired to the official forecast overnight.\r\n\r\nSurface and reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Joaquin's\r\nwind field has expanded during the past 24 hours.  The initial and\r\nforecast wind radii have been adjusted outward accordingly.  The\r\nincrease in size has resulted in the issuance of a Tropical Storm\r\nWarning for eastern Cuba where wind gusts above tropical-storm-\r\nforce have already been observed.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions\r\nwill continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas well\r\ninto Friday.\r\n\r\n2.  The forecast models continue to indicate a track farther away\r\nfrom the United States east coast and the threat of direct impacts\r\nfrom Joaquin in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic states appears to be\r\ndecreasing.  However, the threat of impacts in Bermuda has increased\r\nand a Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for that\r\nisland on Friday.\r\n\r\n3.  Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as\r\npossible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the\r\nstorm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.\r\n\r\n4.  Even if Joaquin moves out to sea, strong onshore winds\r\nassociated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate\r\ncoastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and\r\nnortheastern states through the weekend.  In addition, very heavy\r\nrains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding\r\nover portions of the Atlantic coastal states.  Please see products\r\nissued by local NWS Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 22.9N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 23.2N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 24.7N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 26.6N  73.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 29.0N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 33.4N  70.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 37.0N  68.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 42.0N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015\r\n\r\nThe eye of Joaquin has not been apparent in recent infrared imagery.\r\nThe last pass of the Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the center\r\naround 04Z showed indications of a double wind maximum at flight\r\nlevel, which could indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle is\r\nunderway. The last report from the aircraft indicated that the\r\ncentral pressure still around 935 mb. The initial intensity remains\r\n115 kt pending the arrival of the next aircraft before 12Z. Some\r\nfluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 12 to 24\r\nhours due to eyewall replacement. After that time, gradual weakening\r\nis forecast as the cyclone encounters increasing southwesterly\r\nshear, but Joaquin is expected to remain a powerful hurricane for\r\nthe next several days. Faster weakening in shown late in the period\r\nas the cyclone is forecast move over cooler waters and the shear\r\nincreases further.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a slow drift toward the northwest, or\r\n315/03, with the hurricane now gaining a bit of latitude based on\r\nrecent center fixes. The ridge north of Joaquin will weaken in the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours as a mid/upper-level low moves in from the east,\r\nand the hurricane should begin to move more quickly northward today\r\nand then accelerate northeastward tonight and Saturday. The track\r\nmodel guidance is in reasonable agreement on this scenario, and the\r\nNHC forecast during the first 2 days is a little to the right of the\r\nprevious one, trending toward the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nAfter that time, there have been some changes in the latest models,\r\nwith the GFS trending west from its previous forecast with a track\r\nstill offshore but closer to Cape Cod in about 5 days. The ECMWF has\r\nalso trended westward this cycle away from Bermuda and now lies\r\ncloser to the middle of the guidance suite. The UKMET is now the\r\neastern-most model, but still shows a track west of Bermuda. The\r\nspread in the guidance at these time ranges appears to be due to\r\ndifferences in the strength and speed of the westward movement of\r\nthe upper-level low passing north of Joaquin in the next 2 to 3\r\ndays. The new NHC forecast at days 3 and 4 has been shifted a little\r\nto the east of the previous one and now lies near the latest\r\nconsensus aids. At day 5, all of the guidance shows the cyclone\r\naccelerating east-northeastward, and the NHC track reflects this\r\ntrend. Given the continued variability in the guidance from cycle to\r\ncycle, further adjustments will likely be needed to the NHC track at\r\ndays 3 through 5.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Joaquin's slow motion means that extremely dangerous conditions\r\nwill continue over portions of the warning areas in the Bahamas\r\ntoday.\r\n\r\n2.  The forecast models continue to indicate a track offshore of the\r\nUnited States east coast from the Carolinas to the mid-Atlantic\r\nstates, and the threat of direct impacts from Joaquin in those areas\r\nis decreasing.  However, there is still uncertainty in how close\r\nJoaquin could come to Bermuda, extreme southeastern New England/Cape\r\nCod, and Nova Scotia during the next several days, and interests in\r\nthose areas should continue to monitor the progress of the\r\nhurricane. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for\r\nBermuda later today.\r\n\r\n3.  Efforts to provide the forecast models with as much data as\r\npossible continue, with twice daily NOAA G-IV jet missions in the\r\nstorm environment, and extra NWS balloon launches.\r\n\r\n4.  Even if Joaquin remains offshore, strong onshore winds\r\nassociated with a frontal system will create minor to moderate\r\ncoastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and\r\nnortheastern states through the weekend.  In addition, very heavy\r\nrains, not associated with Joaquin, are expected to produce flooding\r\nover portions of the Atlantic coastal states.  Please see products\r\nissued by local NWS Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 23.3N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 23.9N  74.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 25.4N  74.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 27.4N  72.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 30.0N  70.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 34.8N  69.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 39.0N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 43.5N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported 700-mb\r\nflight-level winds of 124 kt in the southeastern eyewall, along\r\nwith an eyewall dropsonde that supports surface winds of 110-115\r\nkt.  Based on these data, the intensity remains 115 kt.  The latest\r\ncentral pressure indicated by the aircraft data is 939 mb.  While\r\nthe hurricane continues to produce cloud tops of -80C in the\r\neyewall, the eye is ragged and poorly defined in satellite imagery.\r\n\r\nJoaquin has turned northward during the past few hours and the\r\ninitial motion is now 360/3.  Water vapor imagery shows a mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane,\r\nwhile a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located\r\nover the southeastern United States.  This system is forecast to\r\nmove slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the\r\nfront during the next couple of days.  These developments should\r\nsteer Joaquin northward to northeastward during the next 12 hours\r\nor so, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast.  The GFS,\r\nUKMET, and ECMWF are now in better agreement that Joaquin will move\r\ngenerally northeastward through 48 hours, followed by a more\r\nnorthward turn between 48 and 72 hours.  This is then followed\r\nby movement into the westerlies and acceleration toward the east-\r\nnortheast after 72 hours.  The new forecast track is adjusted to\r\nthe east of the previous track after 24 hours, and it lies between\r\nthe previous track and the model consensus.  Some additional\r\neastward adjustments to the track may occur on the next advisory\r\nbased on the 1200 UTC model runs.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical\r\nwind shear for another 24 hours or so, and during this time some\r\nfluctuations in intensity are possible due to eyewall replacement\r\ncycles.  After 24 hours, the shear is forecast to increase, which\r\nshould start a steady weakening.  Extratropical transition is\r\nexpected to begin after 96 hours, but the dynamical models suggest\r\nit may not be complete before 120 hours.  Overall, the new\r\nintensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and lies\r\nnear the upper edge of the intensity guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas are likely to\r\ncontinue into this evening.\r\n\r\n2.  Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S.\r\neast coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current\r\nconditions.  Please see products from your local National Weather\r\nService forecast office.  For information on the heavy rains\r\noccurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated\r\nto Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather\r\nPrediction Center and your local forecast office.\r\n\r\n3. A Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watch could be required for\r\nBermuda this afternoon.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 23.5N  74.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 24.4N  74.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 26.1N  73.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 28.2N  71.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 30.6N  69.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 35.5N  67.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 39.5N  63.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 43.5N  49.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since\r\nthe last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb.\r\nBased on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt.\r\nSubsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from\r\na NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb.  While\r\nthe hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall,\r\nthe convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery,\r\nand only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 360/6.  Water vapor imagery shows a mid-\r\nto upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane,\r\nwhile a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located\r\nover the southeastern United States.  This system is forecast to\r\nmove slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the\r\nfront during the next couple of days.  While this occurs, a mid- to\r\nupper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move\r\nwest-northwestward to the north of Joaquin.  These developments\r\nshould steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by\r\na turn toward the northeast.  The track guidance is now in good\r\nagreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between\r\nthe United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in\r\nthe 48-72 hour period.  Eventually, the cyclone is expected to\r\nmove into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across\r\nthe North Atlantic.  The new forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious forecast and now lies near the consensus models.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical\r\nwind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some\r\nfluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is\r\nforecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening.\r\nExtratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be\r\ncomplete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an\r\nupdate of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should\r\ncontinue for several more hours.\r\n\r\n2.  Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S.\r\neast coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current\r\nconditions.  Please see products from your local National Weather\r\nService forecast office.  For information on the heavy rains\r\noccurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated\r\nto Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather\r\nPrediction Center and your local forecast office.\r\n\r\n3. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas\r\nis diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key\r\nmessages unless the threat increases.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 24.1N  74.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 25.1N  73.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 26.9N  72.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 29.2N  70.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 31.7N  68.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 36.5N  67.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 40.5N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 45.0N  46.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015\r\n\r\nFixes from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate the\r\ncore of Joaquin has gradually begun to move away from the\r\ncentral Bahamas. There were a couple of SFMR winds earlier which\r\nsuggested that the winds could be 115 kt in the southeastern\r\neyewall, but the cloud pattern has deteriorated since these winds\r\nwere measured. Therefore, the initial intensity is kept at 110 kt.\r\nThe eye was over San Salvador Island for several hours where the\r\npressure dropped to near 944 mb. The Director of the Meteorological\r\nService of the Bahamas reported to NHC that there was considerable\r\ndamage on some islands of the central Bahamas.  Joaquin could\r\nfluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24 hours, but given\r\nthat the shear is expected to increase, the NHC forecast calls\r\nfor very gradual weakening. Joaquin is anticipated to lose\r\ntropical characteristics by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nJoaquin has recurved and is now moving toward the northeast or 040\r\ndegrees at 9 kt. Joaquin is embedded within the southwesterly flow\r\nbetween a deepening trough over the eastern Unites States and a\r\na weakening subtropical ridge over the Atlantic. As the trough\r\nswings eastward, Joaquin will become fully embedded within the\r\nmid-latitude westerly flow. This flow pattern will steer Joaquin to\r\nthe northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed. The\r\nmulti-model consensus has shifted eastward tonight, and consequently\r\nthe NHC forecast was also shifted eastward a little. However, the\r\nNHC forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope,\r\nand additional eastward adjustments of the track could be necessary.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 24.7N  74.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 25.7N  72.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 27.9N  70.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 30.4N  68.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 33.0N  67.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 37.0N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 41.5N  54.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 46.5N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015\r\n\r\nThe eye of Joaquin has been intermittently seen in infrared\r\nimagery overnight. Overall, the convective pattern is similar\r\nto what it was when the previous aircraft indicated the intensity\r\nwas around 110 kt, so that will remain the intensity for this\r\nadvisory. Another aircraft will be investigating Joaquin later this\r\nmorning. The intensity forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with\r\nthe cyclone expected to slowly weaken in the first 24 hours followed\r\nby steadier weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters.\r\nLate in the period, Joaquin will slowly weaken as it undergoes\r\nextratropical transition. The new NHC intensity forecast is an\r\nupdate of the previous one and is close to the SHIPS model until\r\nextratropical transition.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 045/11, and Joaquin should continue to\r\naccelerate northeastward today in the deep-layer southwesterly flow\r\nbetween a deep trough over the southeastern U.S. and the Atlantic\r\nsubtropical ridge. The cross-track spread in the guidance increases\r\non days 2 and 3 due to differences in how much Joaquin is tugged to\r\nthe left by an upper-low passing to its north and northwest before\r\nthe cyclone accelerates into the westerlies over the north Atlantic.\r\nThe ECMWF has shifted left this cycle and is now along the left edge\r\nof the guidance, while the GFS continues to shift east with a track\r\ncloser to Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours. The net change in the guidance\r\nenvelope and the consensus aids is a slight shift to the east, and\r\nthe official forecast has been adjusted in that direction. The NHC\r\ntrack now lies close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Further\r\nadjustments to the forecast track may be needed later today, and a\r\nHurricane Watch and Tropical Storm warning continue for Bermuda.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 25.2N  73.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 26.7N  71.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 29.2N  69.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 31.8N  67.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 34.1N  66.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 38.0N  62.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 42.5N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 47.0N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation has improved during the past 12 hours.\r\nA distinct eye is clearly observed in conventional imagery, and it\r\nis surrounded by very deep convection. A blend of subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak estimates of 6.0 and 6.5 T-numbers, and a peak\r\nflight-level wind of 128 kt at 700 mb reported by a reconnaissance\r\naircraft yields an initial intensity of 115 kt.  The central\r\npressure has dropped to 936 mb in the last reconnaissance fix.\r\nDespite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC\r\nforecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus,\r\ncalls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler\r\nwaters. By the end of the forecast period, Joaquin is expected to\r\nhave lost tropical characteristics.\r\n\r\nReconnaissance and satellite fixes indicate that Joaquin is moving\r\ntoward the northeast or 050 degrees at an average speed of 12 kt.\r\nThe hurricane is currently embedded within the flow between a deep\r\neastward-moving trough over the southeastern United States and a\r\nsubtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. As the trough over the\r\nUnited States swings eastward, the hurricane will likely turn\r\nmore to the north-northeast with some increase in forward speed\r\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours. Then, as the trough weakens, the\r\nhurricane could slow down while moving west of Bermuda during late\r\nSunday. After that time, Joaquin is expected to become fully\r\nembedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and accelerate eastward\r\ntoward the northeast Atlantic.  The NHC forecast is very similar to\r\nthe previous one, on top of the multi-model consensus, and in the\r\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nAlthough the confidence in the track forecast has increased due to\r\nthe good agreement among models, a small deviation to the east of\r\nthe forecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with\r\nstronger winds closer to Bermuda.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 25.8N  72.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 27.9N  70.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 30.7N  68.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 33.0N  66.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 35.0N  65.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 39.0N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 43.5N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 48.5N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-10-03 16:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1200 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015\r\n\r\nThis special advisory is to adjust the initial and forecast\r\nintensity through 36 hours. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane\r\njust penetrated the eye of Joaquin and measured 144 kt at 700 mb and\r\nSFMR winds of around 135 kt. No change in the forecast track is\r\nnecessary.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1600Z 26.0N  71.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 27.9N  70.2W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 30.7N  68.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 33.0N  66.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 35.0N  65.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 39.0N  59.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 43.5N  45.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 48.5N  26.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM EDT SAT OCT 03 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was earlier today,\r\nbut the eye continues to be distinct. Both objective and subjective\r\nT-numbers are decreasing slightly, and on this basis, the initial\r\nintensity has been set at 130 kt. Another plane will investigate\r\nJoaquin in a few hours.  Despite the observed intensification this\r\nmorning, the NHC forecast still calls for gradual weakening due to\r\nincreasing shear and cooler waters. Joaquin is forecast to become a\r\nstrong extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nEarlier reconnaissance data and current satellite fixes indicate\r\nthat Joaquin is moving toward the northeast or 045 degrees at 15\r\nkt.  The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow between an\r\neastward-moving trough over southeastern United States and a\r\nweakening subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic. Joaquin is\r\nforecast to turn more to the north-northeast as the trough swings\r\neastward. Then, in about 3 days, the hurricane will be fully\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude flow and will turn to the northeast\r\nwith an increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is very similar\r\nto the previous one, primarily during the first 24 to 36 hours, and\r\nis on top of the multi-model consensus and the consensus of the\r\nECMWF and the GFS models.\r\n\r\nAlthough the confidence in the track forecast is quite high due to\r\nthe good model agreement, a small deviation to the east of the\r\nforecast track would bring the core of the hurricane with stronger\r\nwinds to Bermuda.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 27.0N  70.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 29.0N  68.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 31.5N  67.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 33.7N  66.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 40.0N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 45.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  08/1800Z 50.0N  25.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":26,"Date":"2015-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 03 2015\r\n\r\nWhile the cloud pattern has deteriorated a little this evening,\r\nreports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicate that Joaquin is still a Category 4 hurricane.  The\r\naircraft reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 131 kt southeast of\r\nthe center along with a central pressure near 944 mb.  Surface wind\r\nestimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer were as\r\nhigh as 126 kt, but it is uncertain how reliable these are.  Based\r\nmainly on the flight-level winds, the initial intensity is decreased\r\nto 115 kt.  The aircraft also reports that the size of the 50 kt and\r\n64 kt wind radii have expanded in the southeastern quadrant.\r\n\r\nJoaquin has moved a little to the right for the past several hours\r\nand the initial motion is now 050/17.  Water vapor imagery shows a\r\nmid- to upper-level low near 34N 71W and a mid- to upper-level\r\nridge east of 60W between 25N and 40N.  Joaquin is expected to turn\r\nnorth-northeastward between these features during the next 12 hours,\r\nwith this motion continuing through about 48 hours.  After that\r\ntime, the tropical cyclone is expected to recurve northeastward into\r\nthe westerlies and accelerate.  The forecast track, which has been\r\nshifted about 30 n mi eastward from the previous track, lies near\r\nthe center of the tightly clustered track guidance models.\r\n\r\nThe intensity guidance is in good agreement that Joaquin should\r\nweaken during the forecast period as it encounters episodes of\r\nmoderate to strong vertical wind shear.  However, it is likely to\r\nbe a Category 2 hurricane in 24-36 hours at the time of closest\r\napproach to Bermuda.  Extratropical transition should begin around\r\n72 hours and be complete by 96 hours, with the winds decreasing\r\nbelow hurricane force during the transition.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous forecast and lies near the\r\nupper edge of the intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nThe combination of the shift in the forecast track and the expansion\r\nof the hurricane-force winds requires a hurricane warning for\r\nBermuda at this time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 28.0N  68.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 29.9N  67.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 32.3N  66.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 34.3N  65.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 36.4N  62.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 41.0N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 45.5N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0000Z 50.5N  22.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":27,"Date":"2015-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Joaquin has continued to gradually deteriorate\r\novernight with most of the deep convection now located over the\r\neastern and southeastern portions of the circulation.  The earlier\r\nreconnaissance aircraft mission reported peak 700-mb flight-level\r\nwinds of 125 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 94 kt during its last\r\npass through the southeastern portion of eyewall just before 0500\r\nUTC.  Dropsonde and SFMR data suggest that the flight-level winds\r\nare not mixing down as efficiently as before, and the initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 105 kt, which is a blend of the various\r\nreconnaissance wind data.  Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft is currently en route to the storm and should\r\nprovide a better assessment of Joaquin's intensity this morning.\r\n\r\nRecent center fixes indicate that the motion of Joaquin has started\r\nto bend toward the north-northeast, but the longer term motion is\r\nstill northeastward or 040/17 kt.  The hurricane should turn\r\nnorth-northeastward this morning, and pass near Bermuda this\r\nafternoon as it moves between a large mid- to upper-level low to\r\nits west and a mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  After\r\npassing the Bermuda Joaquin is expected to turn northeastward, then\r\neast-northeastward after 48 hours when it reaches the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies.  The updated NHC track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and it remains near the center of the tightly cluster\r\nguidance models.\r\n\r\nModerate to strong southwesterly shear is expected to cause some\r\nweakening during the next 12 to 24 hours, but Joaquin is forecast to\r\nremain a strong hurricane while it passes near or over Bermuda later\r\ntoday.  Gradual weakening should continue after 24 hours, as the\r\nhurricane encounters cooler waters and remains within an environment\r\nof moderate shear.  Joaquin is expected to become an extratropical\r\ncyclone over the North Atlantic in a little more than 72 hours.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus\r\nthrough 72 hours, and is based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter at 96 and 120 h when the cyclone will be post-tropical.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 29.7N  67.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 31.6N  66.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 33.7N  65.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 35.5N  64.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 37.6N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 41.8N  49.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 45.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/0600Z 50.0N  21.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":28,"Date":"2015-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall cloud pattern of Joaquin has changed little since the\r\nprevious advisory. An Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft\r\nhas reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt and SFMR\r\nsurface wind values of 90 kt during its mission so far this morning,\r\nso the initial intensity has been decreased to 95 kt for this\r\nadvisory. A ragged eye feature is just becoming apparent on\r\nthe Bermuda radar, with strong inner-core rain bands currently\r\nlocated less than 50 nmi southwest of the island.\r\n\r\nRecon center fixes indicate that Joaquin has made the expected turn\r\ntoward the north-northeast, and is now moving 030/15 kt. Joaquin is\r\nforecast to move around the western portion of a modest mid-level\r\nridge to its east and ahead of an eastward-moving deep-layer low\r\nlocated over the southeastern United States. This is expected to\r\nresult in the hurricane moving toward the north-northeast today and\r\ntonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the\r\nshort term forecast track, the center of Joaquin is expected to pass\r\nabout 60 nmi west and northwest of Bermuda during the next 12-24\r\nhours. By days 2-5, Joaquin is forecast to accelerate to the\r\neast-northeast as the cyclone gets caught up in the fast\r\nmid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is essentially\r\njust an update of the previous advisory track, albeit slightly\r\nslower, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nExcluding a slight respite this afternoon, the vertical wind shear\r\nis forecast to increase during the next two days, with the mid-level\r\nenvironment expected to dry out with humidity values decreasing to\r\naround 50 percent. These less favorable conditions should result in\r\ngradual weakening for the next 48 hours or so, followed by more\r\nsignificant weakening on days 3-5 when Joaquin is expected to become\r\nan extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic where SSTs are\r\n20C-24C and vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. Extratropical\r\ntransition is forecast to occur by 96 hours, but it is possible that\r\nit could sooner by around 72 hours as per guidance from the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM statistical-dynamical models, and the EMCWF model. The\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the\r\nconsensus model IVCN through 72 hours, and is based on guidance from\r\nthe Ocean Prediction Center at 96 h and 120 h when the cyclone is\r\nexpected to be an extratropical low.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 31.0N  66.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 32.8N  65.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 34.8N  64.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 36.6N  62.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 38.4N  58.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 42.3N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 46.4N  29.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1200Z 51.4N  19.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":29,"Date":"2015-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite cloud pattern of Joaquin, especially the inner-core\r\nconvection, has continued to erode during the past several hours.\r\nThe Bermuda radar also indicates a very ragged-looking banded eye\r\npattern. The initial intensity has been decreased to 85 kt for this\r\nadvisory based on some dropsonde data from a WB-57 research\r\naircraft that is part of the NASA Tropical Cyclone Intensity\r\nExperiment.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is moving to the north-northeast at 015/12 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.\r\nJoaquin is expected to move toward the north-northeast tonight and\r\nand turn toward the northeast on Monday as the cyclone moves around\r\nthe western periphery of a ridge located to its east. By days 2-5,\r\nthe hurricane should accelerate to the east-northeast as the cyclone\r\nmoves into the strong mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track\r\nforecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory\r\ntrack, and lies down the middle of the tightly packed track model\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nJoaquin should continue to steadily weaken during the next 48 hours\r\nor so, followed by transition to an extratropical cyclone on\r\ndays 3-5 as the cyclone moves over the cold waters of the far north\r\nAtlantic where the vertical shear is forecast to be 45-50 kt. The\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the\r\nconsensus model IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance from\r\nthe Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5 when the cyclone is\r\nforecast to be an extratropical low.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 32.2N  66.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 33.8N  65.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 35.6N  64.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 37.3N  61.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 39.2N  56.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 42.5N  42.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 46.1N  27.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  09/1800Z 49.7N  18.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":30,"Date":"2015-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with the\r\nhurricane have diminished.  Microwave imagery indicates that the\r\ninner core has become less distinct, although the convective\r\nbanding features remain well defined.  An Air Force Reserve\r\nUnit Hurricane Hunter plane reported maximum 700 mb flight-level\r\nwinds of 87 kt over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.\r\nThis corresponds to an intensity of about 75 kt. Only slight cooling\r\nof waters along the path of the cyclone is indicated over the next\r\ncouple of days, since Joaquin will be moving along the Gulf Stream.\r\nDynamical guidance does not show the vertical shear becoming strong\r\nuntil about 48 hours.  Slow weakening is predicted for the next\r\ncouple of days, in general agreement with the SHIPS guidance.  By 72\r\nhours the sea surface temperatures should cool significantly, and\r\nthe global models depict the system as embedded within a baroclinic\r\nzone.  Therefore the forecast shows Joaquin becoming extratropical\r\nby that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion continues to be north-northeastward, or 025/11\r\nkt.  A short wave ridge ahead of the hurricane appears to have\r\ncaused some temporary slowing of the forward motion.  In a day or\r\ntwo, the ridge flattens out, and the cyclone should begin to\r\naccelerate within the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official\r\nforecast through 48 hours is close to the multi-model consensus.\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii for 72 hours and beyond are\r\nbased on the consensus as well as guidance from the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nTropical storm conditions are likely to continue on Bermuda for at\r\nleast the next several hours, with possible winds to hurricane\r\nforce in squalls especially at elevated locations.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 33.1N  65.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 34.5N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 36.2N  63.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 37.8N  59.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 39.5N  54.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 42.5N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 45.0N  23.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/0000Z 47.0N  16.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":31,"Date":"2015-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015\r\n\r\nThe weakening that Joaquin has experienced during the past day or\r\nso appears to have temporarily stopped overnight.  Deep convection\r\nhas increased near the center, and an eye has intermittently been\r\nseen infrared satellite pictures.  The initial wind speed of 75 kt\r\nis based on recent Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\nOnly a slight reduction in strength is expected during the next day\r\nor so while Joaquin remains within an area of light to moderate\r\nvertical wind shear and over sea surface temperatures of around 27C.\r\nAfter that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters\r\nshould cause gradual weakening. Joaquin is expected to interact with\r\na baroclinic zone in a couple of days and become an extratropical\r\ncyclone within 72 hours. The global models slowly weaken the\r\nextratropical low as it moves eastward over the central and eastern\r\nAtlantic later this week.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 025/11 kt. Joaquin should turn\r\nnortheastward and move at a slightly faster forward speed by\r\ntonight as a ridge to the northeast of the hurricane weakens.\r\nJoaquin should become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies\r\nin 36 to 48 hours and accelerate east-northeastward.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC\r\nforecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.  The track\r\nof the extratropical low is a blend of the previous advisory and\r\nguidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm force wind radii have been expanded outward\r\nbased on earlier ASCAT data.  Tropical storm conditions are likely\r\nto continue on Bermuda for a few more hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 34.1N  65.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 35.4N  64.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 37.1N  61.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 38.6N  56.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 39.9N  50.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 42.0N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 43.5N  23.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/0600Z 45.0N  17.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":32,"Date":"2015-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 05 2015\r\n\r\nJoaquin's cloud pattern and overall structure has remained intact\r\nbased on conventional and microwave satellite data. Recent SSMIS\r\nand SSMI microwave passes showed a well-defined small eye still\r\nexists, which is also indicated in reflectivity data from the\r\nBermuda Doppler radar. As a result, the intensity of Joaquin is\r\nbeing maintained at 75 kt, which is supported by Dvorak satellite\r\ncurrent intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 030/11 kt. The forecast track and\r\nreasoning basically remain unchanged. Joaquin is expected to turn\r\nnortheastward today and begin moving at a slightly faster forward\r\nspeed tonight and Tuesday as the hurricane rounds the northwestern\r\nperiphery of a weakening ridge and begins to feel the effects of the\r\nfaster flow in the mid-latitude westerlies. By 36 hours, Joaquin\r\nshould begin to accelerate east-northeastward at a faster forward\r\nspeed of more than 25 kt. The official forecast track is essentially\r\njust an extension of the previous advisory track guidance and lies\r\nclose to the consensus models TCVA and GFEX through 48 hours. After\r\nthat time, the extratropical forecast track is based on guidance\r\nprovided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nDeep convection has persisted and even expanded somewhat since the\r\nprevious advisory, with a small area of cloud tops colder than -70C\r\nhaving developed just west of the center. With the vertical wind\r\nshear expected to remain between 10 to 15 kt for the next 24 hours\r\nor so, only slight weakening is forecast. By 48 hours and beyond,\r\nhowever, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to\r\nmore than 30 kt when the cyclone will be moving over SSTs less than\r\n23C. The result should be steady weakening and a transition to a\r\nlarge and expanding extratropical low pressure system over the north\r\nAtlantic. Extratropical transition could occur sooner if Joaquin\r\ninteracts or merges with a frontal system currently located a few\r\nhundred n mi north of the hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and follows the intensity consensus\r\nmodel IVCN through 48 hours, and is based on guidance provided by\r\nthe Ocean Prediction Center for days 3-5.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm force wind radii were expanded outward slightly\r\nin the southwestern quadrant based on surface observation and radar\r\ndata from Bermuda.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 35.0N  64.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 36.3N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 38.0N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 39.3N  54.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 40.5N  47.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 42.5N  32.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 44.0N  21.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1200Z 45.1N  15.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":33,"Date":"2015-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015\r\n\r\nJoaquin's cloud pattern has actually improved somewhat since the\r\nprevious advisory with a cloud-filled eye having briefly appeared\r\nin visible satellite imagery. Also, the eye has remained distinct\r\non the Bermuda radar at an altitude above 32,000 feet. Satellite\r\nintensity estimates are T4.5/77 kt from SAB, T4.3/72 kt from the\r\nNHC AODT technique, and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB. Based on the distinct\r\neye feature noted in visible satellite imagery and radar data, the\r\nintensity is being maintained at 75 kt for this advisory. This\r\nintensity is also supported by dropsonde data from the NASA WB-57\r\naircraft, which has been conducting research in Joaquin for the\r\nOffice of Naval Operation's Tropical Cyclone Intensity experiment.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 030/10 kt. Joaquin is rounding the\r\nnorthwestern periphery of a weak ridge located to its southeast,\r\nand will be entering the faster mid-latitude westerlies by Tuesday\r\nmorning. The result should be a gradual turn toward the northeast\r\naccompanied by a modest increase in forward speed tonight and\r\nTuesday, followed by more significant acceleration toward the\r\neast-northeast at forward speeds of near 30 kt by Wednesday. The\r\nofficial forecast track is a tad to the left of the previous\r\nadvisory track, and basically lies down the middle of the tightly\r\npacked guidance envelope through 36 hours. At 48-120 hours, the\r\nextratropical forecast track is based on guidance provided by the\r\nNOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe deep-layer vertical wind shear is expected to remain at less\r\nthan 20 kt for the next 24 hours or so, which should allow for\r\nJoaquin to only slightly weaken. By 36 hours and beyond, westerly\r\nvertical wind shear is forecast by the global and regional models to\r\nincrease to more than 30 kt when Joaquin will be moving over sub-24C\r\nsea-surface temperatures. The expected result should be steady\r\nweakening and a transition to a large and expanding extratropical\r\nlow pressure system over the much cooler waters of the north\r\nAtlantic by 48 hours. However, the GFS and ECMWF models are\r\nsuggesting that Joaquin could get a baroclinic boost as it interacts\r\nwith a frontal system and strong jetstream and, as a result, the\r\nintensity forecast does not show the typical rapid decay rate of a\r\ntropical cyclone moving over 17C-20C SSTs on days 3-5. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows\r\nthe intensity consensus model IVCN through 36 hours, and then is\r\nbased on guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the\r\n48-120 hour period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 35.8N  64.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 37.1N  61.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 38.7N  57.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 40.0N  51.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 41.4N  43.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 44.0N  28.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 45.6N  20.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1800Z 48.0N  14.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":34,"Date":"2015-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015\r\n\r\nWhile Joaquin's eye is no longer present in the shortwave infrared\r\nimagery from the GOES-East geostationary satellite this evening, a\r\ndistinct eye has been visible in the microwave imagery from the\r\nSSMIS polar orbiting satellite passes at 2231Z and 2316Z.\r\nThere is even a suggestion of a concentric eyewall at about a 50 nm\r\nradius.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB remain\r\nat 4.5, supporting continuing with an intensity of 75 kt.  The wind\r\nradii were expanded slightly based upon a CIRA AMSU wind radii\r\nanalysis from 2104Z.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is currently embedded in moderate southwesterly vertical\r\nshear with somewhat dry mid-tropospheric air, and is traversing\r\nover SSTs near 27C.  During the next day, the shear picks up\r\nsubstantially.  However, with Joaquin moving in the same direction\r\nas the shear vector, the negative impact of the shear is lessened as\r\nindicated in the SHIPS output.  Within two days, Joaquin will move\r\nnorth of the Gulf Stream and will encounter very cold waters while\r\nthe shear increases even more.  This would typically lead toward a\r\nquick decay of a tropical cyclone, but Joaquin is expected to\r\ntransform into an extratropical cyclone in about 48 hours.  The\r\nbaroclinic processes should allow Joaquin instead to slowly decay.\r\nThe intensity forecast is based upon the tightly clustered IVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus through 36 hours, and then is based on\r\nguidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion of Joaquin is 35 deg/12 kt, fairly confidently\r\nknown because of the microwave fixes.  Joaquin is being swept up in\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies and should begin accelerating off toward\r\nthe east-northeast during the next two to three days.  The track\r\nprediction is based upon the tightly clustered TVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus through 36 hours, and then is based on guidance provided\r\nby the Ocean Prediction Center for the 48-120 hour period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 36.8N  62.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 38.1N  59.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 39.6N  54.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 41.0N  47.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 42.0N  38.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 45.0N  23.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 46.0N  17.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0000Z 48.0N  12.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":35,"Date":"2015-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the structure of Joaquin during\r\nthe past few hours.  An eye has occasionally appeared in microwave\r\nimagery, and recent AMSR-2 and GPM data continue to hint at the\r\npresence of concentric eyewalls.  The initial intensity remains 75\r\nkt based on a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB and continuity\r\nfrom the previous advisory.  The 34 and 50 kt wind radii were\r\nadjusted slightly based on recent ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 050/15.  Joaquin is entering the\r\nwesterlies, and the track guidance is in good agreement that the\r\ncyclone should move rapidly east-northeastward for the next three\r\ndays or so.  After that time, the guidance agrees on a slower\r\nmotion, but there there is some spread between the GFS/UKMET which\r\ncall for a northward turn and the ECMWF which turns the system\r\nsoutheastward.  This part of the forecast lies a little north of the\r\nprevious forecast near the average of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe forecast track carries Joaquin over colder sea surface\r\ntemperatures and close to a baroclinic zone in about 24 hours.\r\nThis combination should cause the cyclone to weaken and begin\r\nextratropical transition.  Transition should be complete between 36\r\nand 48 hours, with Joaquin expected to weaken below hurricane\r\nstrength by that time.  The global models are in good agreement\r\nthat Joaquin will produce gale- to storm-force winds as an\r\nextratropical low during the 48-120 hour period.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous forecast, with the\r\nextratropical portion based on guidance from the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 37.5N  61.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 38.8N  57.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 40.2N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 41.6N  43.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 42.8N  35.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 45.5N  23.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 47.5N  16.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0600Z 51.0N  12.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":36,"Date":"2015-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 06 2015\r\n\r\nJoaquin is in a state of gradual decay.  Although an eye feature is\r\nstill occasionally visible, there has been some erosion of the\r\ninner-core deep convection.  A series of microwaves images this\r\nmorning indicate some eastward tilt of the vortex with height, and\r\nthere is evidence of dry air entrainment into the inner core. Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates are slowly decreasing, and the initial wind\r\nspeed is reduced to 70 kt. An increase in southwesterly shear and\r\ncooler waters along Joaquin's track should cause further weakening\r\nduring the next few days. Cooler and drier air behind a low-level\r\nbaroclinic zone currently draped to the north of the cyclone should\r\ngradually be advected into Joaquin's circulation during the next 24\r\nto 48 hours, and extratropical transition is expected to be complete\r\nin about 36 hours.  The new intensity forecast is near the\r\nmulti-model consensus through 36 hours and then a bit above that\r\nafter that time.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes indicate that Joaquin has is accelerating\r\nnortheastward, and the initial motion estimate is 055/16.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to further accelerate toward the east-northeast\r\nas it becomes fully embedded in a belt of nearly zonal middle- to\r\nupper-tropospheric flow during the next few days.  After\r\nextratropical transition, Joaquin should experience a significant\r\ndeceleration when it approaches the British Isles.  The track\r\nguidance is tightly clustered through 48 hours, with somewhat\r\ngreater spread after that time.  The new track forecast is about the\r\nsame as the previous one and lies near the multi-model consensus for\r\nthe remainder of the forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 38.3N  59.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 39.5N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 40.8N  48.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 42.0N  40.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 43.3N  32.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 46.2N  21.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 49.3N  14.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1200Z 49.8N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":37,"Date":"2015-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  37...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FORWARD SPEED TO 20 KT IN SECOND PARAGRAPH\r\n\r\nJoaquin continues to have a very impressive cloud pattern with an\r\nintermittent eye on visible images. In fact, microwave data still\r\nshows a distinct eye feature surrounded by convective bands. Dvorak\r\nT-numbers have not changed today, and given the currently well-\r\norganized cloud pattern, the initial intensity is kept at 70 kt.\r\nBoth cold sea surface temperatures and strong shear should\r\ncause Joaquin to begin losing tropical characteristics between 24\r\nand 36 hours, and after that time, the hurricane is forecast to\r\nbecome a strong extratropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies and\r\nis racing toward the east-northeast at about 20 kt.  Track guidance\r\nis tightly packed, showing Joaquin moving on the same general track\r\nfor the next few days with some increase in forward speed.  However,\r\nJoaquin should decrease in forward speed by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The NHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model\r\nconsensus, and very near the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 39.0N  56.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 40.4N  51.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 42.0N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 43.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 44.0N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 46.5N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 48.0N  13.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1800Z 49.0N  10.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":38,"Date":"2015-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 06 2015\r\n\r\nUntil just a couple of hours ago, Joaquin continued to display\r\na tight inner core, with deep convection surrounding a 20\r\nn mi diameter eye.  The most recent geostationary infrared imagery\r\nis finally showing that the convection is becoming asymmetric with\r\nthe 25 kt of tropospheric vertical shear adversely affecting the\r\ncyclone.  The intensity remains 70 kt, since both the SAB and TAFB\r\nDvorak Current Intensity values are unchanged.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is about to cross over the north wall of the Gulf\r\nStream and will be traversing very chilly 21-22C waters by tomorrow.\r\nThe combination of cold SSTs, dry air, and strong vertical shear\r\nshould cause the deep convection to either completely dislocate or\r\ncease and the forecast calls for Joaquin to become a strong\r\npost-tropical cyclone in about a day.  The FSU Cyclone Phase Space\r\ndiagrams, based upon the global and regional models, suggest that\r\nJoaquin will gradually become more frontal and extratropical\r\ntransition is anticipated by Thursday.  Baroclinic forcing should\r\nallow for only a gradual winding down as depicted by the models, and\r\ndissipation is anticipated in about five days.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is moving toward the east-northeast at a rather quick pace\r\nof 25 kt, as it is being advected along by the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies.  The system should accelerate east-northeastward for\r\nabout 36 hours, before slowing down in the eastern north Atlantic.\r\nThe track forecast is based upon the tightly clustered global and\r\nregional models through 72 hours.  By day four, the guidance becomes\r\ndivergent with some solutions turning northeastward toward\r\nIreland and Great Britain, but most turning east-southeastward\r\ntoward Portugal and Spain.  This latter scenario is the basis for\r\nthe track forecast at day 4.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts from 36 hours and\r\nbeyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nA last-minute-arriving ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated that\r\nJoaquin continues to expand in size.  The 34- and 50-kt wind radii\r\nanalyses and forecasts were adjusted accordingly.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 40.0N  53.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 41.0N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 42.1N  39.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 43.4N  31.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 44.7N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 44.0N  17.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 43.0N  13.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0000Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":39,"Date":"2015-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015\r\n\r\nThe organization of Joaquin continues to slowly decrease, with the\r\ncentral convection now present only in the northeastern semicircle.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 65 kt, and\r\nthat is the advisory intensity.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is now moving over colder water north of the Gulf Stream,\r\nand the cyclone is gradually becoming embedded in a baroclinic zone.\r\nThis combination should cause continued weakening and eventual\r\nextratropical transition.  The current expectation is that the\r\ncentral convection will dissipate before the cyclone develops\r\nfronts, so the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become\r\npost-tropical for about 12 hours before becoming extratropical.\r\nThe new intensity forecast shows a slightly faster weakening than\r\nthe previous forecast, and calls for Joaquin or its remnants to\r\ndissipate by 120 hours.\r\n\r\nJoaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is\r\nembedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge.\r\nThis motion should continued for another 36 hours or so.  After\r\nthat time, the guidance is now in better agreement that the cyclone\r\nshould turn decelerate and turn east-southeastward as it comes under\r\nthe influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.\r\nThe new forecast track is an update of the previous track.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 24 hours and\r\nbeyond are based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 40.5N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 41.4N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 42.4N  35.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 43.3N  28.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 44.2N  23.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 44.0N  16.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 43.0N  12.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":40,"Date":"2015-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 07 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Joaquin continues to slowly weaken.\r\nThe low-level center is now about half a degree west of the\r\nmid-level circulation, with an area of deep convection noted.\r\nDvorak estimates are lower, so the initial wind speed is reduced to\r\n60 kt.\r\n\r\nA gradual spin-down of the cyclone is expected while Joaquin moves\r\nover colder waters north of the Gulf Stream.  Deep convection\r\nshould probably disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C, so\r\nthe intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to become post-tropical at\r\nthat time.  The cyclone will likely become a more classic\r\nextratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to\r\nform near the center. The official intensity forecast is very close\r\nto the previous one, and is in closest agreement with the GFS\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nJoaquin continues moving rapidly east-northeastward as it is\r\nembedded in strong westerly flow north of the subtropical ridge.\r\nThis motion should continue for another 24 hours or so.  After\r\nthat time, the guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone\r\nshould decelerate and turn east-southeastward due to it coming\r\nunder the influence of a developing deep-layer trough over western\r\nEurope. The official forecast is adjusted southward, and is near a\r\nblend of the GFS and the ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and\r\nbeyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 41.0N  45.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 41.8N  39.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 42.6N  32.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 43.5N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 44.2N  21.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 43.5N  15.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 42.5N  11.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":41,"Date":"2015-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015\r\n\r\nJoaquin has begun its transition into an extratropical cyclone.\r\nThe cyclone's cloud pattern has become rather asymmetric, with the\r\ncenter partially exposed on the west side of weakening deep\r\nconvection.  In addition, cold air is wrapping into the western\r\nperiphery of the circulation, with a warm frontal band becoming\r\nbetter defined well northeast of the center.  Earlier ASCAT data\r\nstill showed a large area of 55 to 60 kt winds, so the initial wind\r\nspeed is held at 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe storm should gradually lose strength while it moves over\r\nprogressively colder waters north of the Gulf Stream.  Deep\r\nconvection should disappear tonight when the SSTs drop below 20C,\r\nand Joaquin is expected to become post-tropical at that time. Global\r\nmodels are in good agreement on the cyclone becoming a large\r\nextratropical low on Thursday when frontal features are forecast to\r\nform near the center. The official intensity forecast is basically\r\nan update of the previous one, and remains in close agreement with\r\nthe GFS forecast.\r\n\r\nJoaquin is speeding eastward at 32 kt, embedded in strong westerly\r\nflow north of the subtropical ridge, which should keep the cyclone\r\nmoving to the east or east-northeast at a slower forward speed for\r\nanother day or two. Thereafter, the cyclone should slow down even\r\nmore and turn east-southeastward due to it coming under the\r\ninfluence of a developing deep-layer trough over western Europe.\r\nThe guidance continues to migrate southward, and the official\r\nforecast is moved in that direction, near a blend of the Florida\r\nState Superensemble and the ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for 12 hours and\r\nbeyond are primarily based upon guidance provided by the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 41.5N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 42.0N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 42.7N  28.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 43.6N  23.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 43.8N  19.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 43.0N  14.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 41.5N  10.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Joaquin","Adv":42,"Date":"2015-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 07 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the system no longer resembles a\r\ntropical cyclone, with a disorganized area of multi-layered\r\ncloudiness sheared off well to the northeast of the ill-defined\r\nlow-level center.  However, model analyses and surface data\r\nindicate that the cyclone is not yet embedded within a frontal\r\nzone, and therefore is not extratropical at this time.  Nonetheless,\r\nsince the system lacks sufficient organized deep convection to\r\nqualify as a tropical cyclone, Joaquin is being declared as a post-\r\ntropical cyclone, and advisories are being terminated.  Cyclone\r\nphase space analyses from Florida State University indicate that the\r\nsystem will become extratropical in about 12 hours, and this is\r\nalso shown in the official forecast.  The current intensity is set\r\nat 55 kt in agreement with a recent scatterometer overpass.  Global\r\nmodels show a gradual spindown of the cyclone over the next several\r\ndays, and so does the official forecast.\r\n\r\nPost-tropical Joaquin continues to move rapidly toward the east,\r\nor 080/30 kt, while embedded in strong mid-latitude westerlies.\r\nThe steering current is forecast to gradually weaken as a mid-level\r\ntrough deepens near the Greenwich meridian, and the cyclone should\r\nmove at a progressively slower forward speed over the period.  In\r\n2-3 days, the system is forecast to turn southeastward ahead of\r\nthe abovementioned trough.  There is fairly good agreement among\r\nthe global models on this scenario.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are primarily based\r\nupon guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 42.0N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 42.5N  32.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 42.8N  26.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 42.5N  22.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 42.5N  19.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 42.0N  14.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 40.5N  11.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  13/0000Z 39.0N  10.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-11-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n1000 PM EST SUN NOV 08 2015\r\n\r\nGeostationary satellite imagery during the late afternoon showed\r\nthat the circulation associated with the small low pressure area\r\nnear the southeastern Bahamas had become better defined. During the\r\npast few hours, thunderstorm activity has increased over the eastern\r\nportion of the circulation, and the system has acquired enough\r\norganization to be classified as a tropical depression, the twelfth\r\nof the 2015 Atlantic hurricane season.  The initial intensity is\r\nset at 30 kt, which is based a data T-number of 2.0 from TAFB and\r\nrecent ship observations.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance\r\naircraft is scheduled to investigate the tropical depression Monday\r\nmorning and should provide a better assessment of cyclone's\r\nintensity.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/12 kt.  The depression is\r\nforecast to move northwestward tonight, then turn north-\r\nnorthwestward and northward on Monday and Monday night while it\r\nmoves around the western portion of a low- to mid-level ridge over\r\nthe west-central Atlantic.  The tropical cyclone should accelerate\r\nnortheastward on Tuesday when it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.\r\nThe track guidance is good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC\r\nforecast is near the middle of the model envelope.\r\n\r\nThe depression is forecast to remain in a low shear environment and\r\nover warm sea surface temperatures during the next day or two.\r\nThis should allow for strengthening and the depression is forecast\r\nto become a tropical storm tonight or Monday. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is in good agreement with the SHIPS/LGEM guidance and the\r\nintensity consensus model IVCN.  The small tropical cyclone is\r\nexpected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low pressure area\r\nand frontal system that will be moving off the southeast United\r\nStates coast in a couple of days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 23.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 24.0N  74.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 26.2N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 29.1N  75.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 32.2N  71.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z...Absorbed by extratropical low\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-11-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n400 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased to the north and east of the\r\ndepression's center during the past few hours, with Dvorak estimates\r\nnow T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.\r\nBased on these data, the cyclone is maintained as a 30-kt\r\ndepression.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is\r\nscheduled to investigate the tropical depression later this morning\r\nand should provide a more definitive assessment of the cyclone's\r\nintensity.  Warm ocean waters and low vertical shear should support\r\nsome strengthening of the cyclone during the next day or two before\r\nit is absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the western\r\nAtlantic by 72 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from\r\nthe previous advisory and is very close to a consensus of the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression has been moving a little bit faster and\r\ntoward the west-northwest overnight, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis 295/13 kt.  The cyclone is forecast to move around the western\r\nperiphery of a low- to mid-level ridge located over the western\r\nAtlantic, and its motion should turn back to the northwest later\r\ntoday and north-northwest by tonight.  While the dynamical models\r\nall show this general scenario, the depression is already out of\r\nsync with the dynamical model trackers and more in line with the\r\nsimpler BAM trajectory models.  Therefore, the official forecast has\r\nbeen placed to the west of the various consensus models during the\r\nfirst 24-36 hours to lean closer to the BAM models and the solutions\r\nobserved in the dynamical model fields.  After 36 hours, the BAM and\r\ndynamical models are in much better agreement, and the official\r\nforecast is closer to the consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 23.6N  74.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 24.7N  75.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 27.0N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 30.0N  75.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 33.4N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg/Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-11-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n1000 AM EST MON NOV 09 2015\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate\r\nthat Kate has strengthened a little.  The advisory intensity of 40\r\nkt is based on peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 50 kt, and SFMR\r\nobservations of 40-42 kt.  Kate is a very small tropical cyclone,\r\nwith its associated central dense overcast extending no more than\r\nabout 40 n mi from the center.\r\n\r\nSatellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Kate is moving\r\nnorthwestward at about 13 kt, steered between a subtropical high\r\npressure system over the central Atlantic and a trough over the\r\neastern Gulf of Mexico.  A northward turn is forecast to occur\r\ntonight when the storm is near the northwestern Bahamas.  After\r\nthat time, an acceleration to the northeast is expected when the\r\ncyclone moves on the north side of the ridge and becomes embedded\r\nin the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official NHC track forecast is\r\nnudged to the right of the previous one at the 36- and 48-h forecast\r\ntimes, to come into better agreement with the consensus aids.\r\n\r\nKate is likely to strengthen some more during the next day or so\r\nwhile it remains in a low- to moderate-shear environment and over\r\nwarm water.  The official intensity forecast is higher than the\r\nprevious one, but is near the low end of the guidance envelope.\r\nAll of the models show Kate becoming absorbed by a much larger\r\nextratropical cyclone in 2-3 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 24.5N  75.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 26.1N  76.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 28.7N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 31.6N  72.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 34.4N  68.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-11-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n400 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015\r\n\r\nKate remains a compact tropical storm, consisting of a small central\r\ndense overcast and fragmented bands mainly to the north and east of\r\nthe center. Earlier radar images from the Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft indicated that a partial convective\r\ninner core was forming.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt for\r\nthis advisory, based on the earlier reconnaissance data, but the\r\nsystem could be a little stronger.  The NOAA hurricane hunters will\r\nbe investigating Kate shortly, and will provide a better assessment\r\nof its intensity.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is embedded in a low wind shear environment and\r\nover warm waters.  These favorable conditions should allow the storm\r\nto strengthen during the next day or so.  After that time, an\r\nincrease in shear and cooler waters along the expected track should\r\ncause the strengthening trend to end.  Kate is expected to be\r\nabsorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in 2-3 days.  The\r\nnew official intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one,\r\nand remains on the low end of the model guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nKate continues to move northwestward near the eastern edge of the\r\nBahamas.  The main steering features consist of a subtropical ridge\r\nover the central Atlantic and a trough over the Gulf of Mexico.  A\r\nnorthward turn is expected tonight when the storm reaches the\r\nwestern periphery of the ridge, followed by a faster northeastward\r\nmotion on Tuesday and Wednesday when the cyclone moves on the north\r\nside of the ridge and becomes embedded in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the\r\nprevious one, to come into better agreement with the latest\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 25.5N  76.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 27.5N  76.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 30.4N  74.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 33.6N  69.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 36.8N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-11-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n1000 PM EST MON NOV 09 2015\r\n\r\nKate's cloud pattern is well organized this evening.  The\r\ncenter is located beneath a small central dense overcast feature\r\nwith prominent banding features noted over the northern semicircle.\r\nEarlier NOAA reconnaissance data indicated that Kate had\r\nstrengthened to about 45 kt.  Since the plane departed the storm,\r\nthe satellite presentation has continued to improve, so the\r\nintensity is increased to 50 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to\r\nremain within a low-to-moderate shear environment and over warm\r\nwater for another 12 to 18 hours, which should allow for additional\r\nstrengthening. It is even possible that Kate will become a\r\nhurricane on Tuesday before the southwesterly shear becomes strong\r\nand the cyclone moves over cooler waters.  Kate is forecast to\r\nbecome a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days and is expected\r\nto be absorbed by a larger extratropical cyclone and frontal system\r\nover the north Atlantic by day 3.\r\n\r\nKate has made the expected northward turn, and will be steered\r\nnortheastward on Tuesday between a deep-layer ridge over the\r\ncentral Atlantic and a short-wave trough that is approaching the\r\neast coast of the United States. The cyclone should accelerate\r\nnortheastward or east-northeastward by Tuesday night as it becomes\r\nembedded in the fast mid-latitude westerlies.  The updated track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and near a blend of the GFS and\r\nECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 27.2N  76.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 29.5N  75.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 32.5N  71.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 35.3N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 38.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  13/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-11-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n400 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015\r\n\r\nKate's convective structure hasn't changed much from the previous\r\nadvisory.  The center is located beneath a small central dense\r\novercast with broken banding over the northeastern quadrant.  The\r\ninitial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of Dvorak numbers\r\nof T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.  A NOAA P-3\r\naircraft recently reached Kate, and on its first pass through the\r\ncenter it reported peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 45 kt and\r\nsurface winds between 40-45 kt.  In addition, the central pressure\r\nhas fallen to 1003 mb.  The plane will be making a few more passes\r\nthrough the center during the next couple of hours.\r\n\r\nAlthough vertical shear is forecast to increase during the next\r\ncouple of days and Kate will be moving over water colder than 26C\r\nwithin the next 12-24 hours, all of the reliable intensity models\r\nindicate that the cyclone should strengthen and reach hurricane\r\nstrength by 36 hours, if not sooner.  After 36 hours, the shear is\r\nexpected to increase to nearly 50 kt, which should cause Kate to\r\nbecome post-tropical.  One significant change on this cycle is that\r\nthe 00Z GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and to some extent the ECMWF now show\r\nKate becoming the dominant low pressure area over the north Atlantic\r\nin a few days instead of being absorbed by a separate extratropical\r\nlow.  Therefore, the updated NHC is now extended beyond 48 hours,\r\nshowing Kate as a growing extratropical low over the north Atlantic\r\non days 3-5.\r\n\r\nKate is accelerating northward with an initial motion of 010/15 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward and east-northeastward\r\nand accelerate further through Wednesday as it becomes embedded in\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies.  Kate is likely to slow down around\r\nday 3 when it becomes extratropical, but it should resume a faster\r\nnortheastward motion toward the far north Atlantic on days 4 and 5.\r\nThe new NHC track forecast is primarily an update of the previous\r\nforecast through 48 hours, and the extended extratropical portion\r\nbeyond day 3 is generally a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 28.8N  75.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 31.0N  73.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 33.9N  68.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 36.6N  60.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 39.2N  54.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 43.0N  48.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 46.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/0600Z 53.0N  27.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-11-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n1000 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015\r\n\r\nCorrected forecast motion at the end of the period to northeastward\r\nin third paragraph.\r\n\r\nData from both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\ninvestigating Kate this morning indicate that the storm has\r\ncontinued to strengthen. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt based\r\non a peak SFMR wind of 61 kt from the Air Force aircraft. Given the\r\nlatest dropsonde data, the central pressure is estimated at 999 mb.\r\nKate's center continues to be embedded within a small CDO feature,\r\nwith aircraft data indicating some tilt to the circulation,\r\nconsistent with 15 to 20 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over\r\nthe cyclone.\r\n\r\nDespite increasing shear and cooling SSTs along the track, all of\r\nthe guidance continues to suggest that Kate will strengthen during\r\nthe next 24-36 hours, likely due in part to very cold temperatures\r\naloft. The NHC forecast follows this trend, and is above the\r\nguidance in the short range given the initial intensity, and shows\r\nKate peaking at 70 kt in 24 to 36 hours. As the shear increases to\r\nover 40 kt, Kate should lose tropical characteristics by 48 hours\r\nand then weaken as it becomes fully extratropical by 72 hours. The\r\nofficial forecast carries Kate as the dominant feature through 5\r\ndays as it interacts with another extratropical low over the north\r\nAtlantic.\r\n\r\nKate continues to accelerate, with an initial motion estimate of\r\n035/18. A further acceleration toward the east-northeast is\r\nforecast during the next 24 to 36 hours as Kate becomes fully\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. A slowing of the forward\r\nspeed is expected in 48 to 72 hours while Kate interacts with an\r\nupper-level trough during extratropical transition, followed by a\r\nfaster northeastward motion over the north Atlantic at the end of\r\nthe forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update\r\nof the previous one. This forecast is close to the latest GFS track\r\nthrough 48 hours and a little to the north of that model afterward.\r\n\r\nThe extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 30.2N  74.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 32.5N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 35.3N  64.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 37.8N  56.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 40.5N  51.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 42.0N  47.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 47.0N  36.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/1200Z 55.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-11-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n400 PM EST TUE NOV 10 2015\r\n\r\nKate has not changed much in structure during the past few hours,\r\nwith the center still embedded with a small CDO. Dvorak estimates\r\nare T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity remains\r\n60 kt based on the earlier aircraft data. A NOAA hurricane hunter\r\naircraft will be investigating Kate again this evening. A pair of\r\nASCAT A/B passes at 14-15Z were helpful in analyzing the 34-kt wind\r\nradii.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast shows Kate reaching hurricane status in 12\r\nhours, and then remaining a powerful cyclone as it undergoes\r\nextratropical transition in 36 to 48 hours while it interacts with\r\nan upper-level trough and an east/west oriented low-level baroclinic\r\nzone. After transition, the baroclinic forcing weakens, and Kate is\r\nexpected to weaken to 40-45 kt at 72 hours and beyond. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus through\r\ntransition.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 050/26, as Kate continues to\r\naccelerate into the mid-latitude westerlies. The track model\r\nguidance is in generally good agreement showing a turn toward the\r\neast-northeast with a forward speed of 30 to 35 kt through 36 hours,\r\nfollowed by a slower northeastward motion as Kate interacts with an\r\nupper-level trough. After that time, a gradual acceleration toward\r\nthe east and then northeast is expected over the north Atlantic. The\r\nnew NHC track forecast is a little to the left of and faster than\r\nthe previous one through 48 hours, based on the initial position and\r\nmotion, and a faster trend in the guidance. After that time the NHC\r\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one. The NHC track is\r\nclose to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through 48 hours and\r\nis close to the GEFS ensemble mean after that time.\r\n\r\nThe extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 32.2N  72.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 34.3N  68.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 37.1N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 40.0N  53.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 42.0N  50.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 43.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 48.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  15/1800Z 58.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-11-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n1100 PM AST TUE NOV 10 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall structure of Kate has not changed much since this\r\nafternoon, however, the area of cloud tops has expanded and cooled\r\nwithin the past few hours. NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data from\r\naround 0000 UTC showed that the center remains embedded within the\r\ncentral dense overcast, but there was significant tilt between the\r\n700 mb and surface centers.  Although flight-level winds and 0000\r\nUTC Dvorak classifications support an intensity of 65 kt,\r\ndropwindsonde and SFMR data indicate that the winds aloft are not\r\nefficiently mixing down to the surface and the initial intensity\r\nremains 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThere is only a short window of opportunity for Kate to reach\r\nhurricane strength, before it moves over cooler waters and the\r\nshear increases to more than 30 kt by Wednesday morning.  Kate is\r\nexpected to remain a powerful cyclone as it becomes extratropical\r\nin about 36 hours.  Later in the period, Kate is forecast to\r\ngradually weaken as it loses baroclinic forcing.  The extratropical\r\nlow is forecast to be absorbed by a front over the north Atlantic in\r\n4 to 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 055/30 kt.  Kate should continue\r\nmoving rapidly northeastward or east-northeastward during the next\r\n24 hours, then temporarily slow down during the 36 to 48 hour time\r\nperiod while it interacts with an upper-level trough.  After that\r\ntime, the extratropical low should again accelerate northeastward\r\nover the north-central Atlantic.  The model guidance is in very good\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the updated track forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 33.9N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 36.0N  64.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 38.9N  55.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 41.6N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 42.6N  49.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 44.0N  41.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 50.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  16/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-11-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n500 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall structure of Kate has again not changed much in\r\nconventional satellite imagery since the previous advisory, with the\r\ncenter in an area of strong convection.  However, a just received\r\nAMSR microwave overpass shows that the convective banding has become\r\nbetter defined near the center.  Based on this and satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB of 65 kt, Kate is upgraded to\r\na hurricane.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 055/35.  Kate is now embedded in the\r\nwesterlies between the subtropical ridge and a baroclinic low near\r\nNew England.  The tropical cyclone should continue a general\r\neast-northeastward motion across the North Atlantic for the next\r\nseveral days.  However, a decrease in forward speed and some\r\nerratic motion are expected around 36-48 hours as Kate interacts\r\nwith, and eventually absorbs, the baroclinic low.  Despite the\r\ncomplexity added by the merger, the track guidance is in excellent\r\nagreement with only a small spread in direction and speed.  The new\r\nforecast track is a little north of the previous track and lies\r\nnear the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nA combination of increasing shear and decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures should prevent any additional intensification.  Kate\r\nshould begin extratropical transition in 12-24 hours and complete it\r\nby 36 hours as the cyclone absorbs the baroclinic low.  The\r\nresulting extratropical low is forecast to be absorbed by a front\r\nover the north Atlantic in 4 to 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe extratropical portion of Kate's forecast was coordinated with\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 36.0N  65.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 38.1N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 40.8N  53.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 42.3N  50.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 42.5N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 46.5N  36.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 54.0N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-11-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n1100 AM AST WED NOV 11 2015\r\n\r\nAn SSMIS microwave image from a few hours ago indicated that Kate is\r\nwell organized, with a large eye feature and a curved band that\r\nalmost completely surrounds it.  During the past few hours, however,\r\nthe cloud tops have been warming, likely due to its passage over\r\ndecreasing SSTs. The initial wind speed remains 65 kt, based on\r\nthe latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear is increasing over Kate, and it is expected\r\nto be in excess of 40 kt later today.  In addition, a strong\r\nmid-latitude trough is approaching the cyclone.  Based on these\r\nexpected conditions, it appears likely that Kate will transition to\r\nan extratropical cyclone tonight or early Thursday.  After the\r\ntransition, only a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong\r\nbaroclinic forcing.\r\n\r\nKate is racing east-northeastward, and the latest initial motion\r\nestimate is a speedy 065/39 kt.  The hurricane is expected to slow\r\ndown later today and move erratically northeastward to east-\r\nnortheastward during the next couple of days when it interacts\r\nwith, and ultimately absorbs, an extratropical low to its west.  A\r\nfaster northeastward motion is predicted by the weekend after the\r\nmerger of the weather systems.  The new track forecast lies in the\r\nmiddle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been expanded based on recent\r\nscatterometer data.  The extratropical portion of Kate's forecast\r\nwas coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 36.8N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 39.0N  55.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 41.1N  50.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 41.8N  47.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 42.4N  43.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 48.5N  29.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 56.1N  16.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kate","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-11-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n500 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015\r\n\r\nKate is not expected to be a tropical cyclone much longer. The\r\ncloud pattern has become asymmetric, due to very strong westerly\r\nshear, with the low-level center displaced to the west of the\r\nassociated deep convection.  In addition, stable stratocumulus\r\nclouds are wrapping around the south side of the circulation, and\r\nthere is some evidence of a developing warm front to the east of the\r\ncenter. The initial intensity is held at 65 kt, based on the\r\nDvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The combination of continued\r\nstrong shear and the interaction with an extratropical cyclone,\r\nlocated just to the west of Kate, should cause the hurricane to lose\r\ntropical characteristics tonight.  After extratropical transition,\r\nonly a slow decay is predicted due to fairly strong baroclinic\r\nforcing. The new intensity forecast is largely an update of the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nKate continues to race east-northeastward, and the latest initial\r\nmotion estimate is about the same as before, 065/38 kt.  A slowdown\r\nis expected to begin soon, and an erratic northeastward to\r\neast-northeastward motion is likely during the next couple of days\r\nwhile Kate interacts with, and then absorbs, the extratropical low\r\nto its west.  After Kate and the extratropical low merge Thursday\r\nnight or early Friday, a faster northeastward motion is expected.\r\nThe new track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nThis forecast was coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 38.2N  56.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 40.1N  52.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 41.5N  48.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 42.2N  45.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 43.9N  40.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 51.9N  25.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 57.7N  13.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kate","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-11-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n1100 PM AST WED NOV 11 2015\r\n\r\nKate continues to undergo extratropical transition. Satellite\r\nimagery show that Kate's cloud pattern has become increasingly\r\nelongated and asymmetric since the last advisory due to strong\r\nwesterly shear. The cloud pattern has also taken on a comma-shape\r\nappearance, typically a precursor to frontogenesis and a completion\r\nof extratropical transition.  The initial intensity is lowered to 60\r\nkt, based on a blend of Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  A mid-\r\nto upper-level trough is forecast to merge with Kate in about 12\r\nhours or so, which should result in Kate's becoming post-tropical.\r\nAfter this occurs, baroclinic forcing from the trough should allow\r\nthe post-tropical cyclone to maintain its intensity or perhaps even\r\nre-strengthen as indicated in the global models through about 24\r\nhours.  Beyond this time, a slow decay is forecast, with the post-\r\ntropical cyclone predicted to lose its identity in about 3 days\r\nwhen a new baroclinic development over the far north Atlantic\r\nbecomes more dominant.  The new intensity forecast represents an\r\nupdate of the previous one, with dissipation now shown a day sooner.\r\n\r\nKate continues to move rapidly east-northeastward but appears to\r\nhave slowed down some, and the initial motion estimate is 065/36.\r\nAs a post-tropical cyclone, Kate's motion is forecast to decrease\r\nfurther during the next during 24 hours while it merges with the\r\nextratropical system to the west.  A new and potent shortwave\r\ntrough reaching Atlantic Canada in 2 to 3 days should then cause\r\nKate to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward until\r\ndissipation. The new track forecast is generally slower relative\r\nto the previous one, consistent with the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 40.1N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 41.2N  50.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 42.2N  46.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 43.1N  43.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 45.3N  37.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 53.8N  22.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kate","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-11-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122015\r\n500 AM AST THU NOV 12 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Kate has merged with a baroclinic\r\nzone over the north Atlantic and is now an extratropical cyclone.\r\nThe advisory intensity is set at 60 kt based on earlier ASCAT-A data\r\nand continuity from the previous advisory.  The post-tropical\r\ncyclone should gradually weaken during the next 2-3 days as it\r\nmerges with a low pressure area currently located to its west.\r\nAfter that time, the global models show an intensifying baroclinic\r\nlow over the northeastern Atlantic, but it is unclear whether this\r\nlow is the re-intensification of the former Kate or a new low that\r\nabsorbs the remnants of Kate.  The official forecast follows the\r\nprevious forecast in using the latter scenario.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 060/23.  The post-tropical cyclone should\r\nslow its forward motion during the next 24 hours or so during the\r\nmerger with the low to the west, and some erratic motion is\r\npossible. Subsequently, the post-tropical cyclone should accelerate\r\ntoward the east-northeast and northeast.  The new forecast track is\r\nagain slower than the previous forecast and is in best agreement\r\nwith the consensus models.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on this system issued by the National\r\nHurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be\r\nfound in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,\r\nunder AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available\r\non the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 40.7N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 41.8N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 42.2N  45.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 43.3N  41.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 46.3N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 55.0N  19.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  16/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-05-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n300 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has become increasingly consolidated and organized\r\nin association with an area of low pressure located well to the\r\nsouthwest of the coast of Mexico.  Enough convective banding has\r\nformed to yield Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and\r\nT1.5/25 kt from SAB, and a 0459 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed maximum\r\nwinds near 30 kt.  The ASCAT data also showed that a center of\r\ncirculation appeared sufficiently well defined, allowing the\r\ndesignation of the low as a 30-kt tropical depression at this time.\r\n\r\nThe depression lies to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends\r\nfrom central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific, and\r\nits initial motion is 295/13 kt.  Global model fields show that the\r\nridge should remain firmly in place, especially to the northwest of\r\nthe depression, during the next several days.  This should force the\r\ncyclone to slow down considerably and move north-northwestward from\r\ndays 2 through 5.  There is good agreement among the track models\r\nduring the first 3 days of the forecast.  By days 4 and 5, however,\r\nthere is more uncertainty with the GFDL and HWRF models showing a\r\nnorthward motion while the GFS and ECMWF show a northwestward\r\nmotion.  The NHC track forecast currently lies closest to the GFS\r\nmodel and the TVCE multi-model consensus.  Regardless of the exact\r\ntrack, the cyclone is expected to stay well to the southwest of\r\nMexico during the entire forecast period.\r\n\r\nRelatively low shear and warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures\r\nshould support intensification during the next 3 days or so.  Of the\r\nintensity guidance, the SHIPS model is the most aggressive, making\r\nthe cyclone a hurricane by 36 hours with a peak intensity near 90 kt\r\nin 2-3 days.  The official intensity forecast isn't quite that\r\naggressive, but it does lie slightly above the ICON intensity\r\nconsensus.  Rapid intensification isn't out of the question, and in\r\nfact the RI guidance suggests that it may be likely during the next\r\n24 hours.  In light of that, some upward adjustment to the official\r\nforecast may be needed in subsequent advisories.  Weakening should\r\nbegin by day 4 once the cyclone reaches colder water.\r\n\r\nNote that beginning this year, Tropical Cyclone Public Advisories,\r\nDiscussions, and Updates for the eastern North Pacific will now use\r\ndifferent time zones depending on the cyclone's current location, as\r\nfollows:\r\n\r\nCentral Time:  east of 106.0W\r\nMountain Time: 106.0W to 114.9W\r\nPacific Time:  115.0W westward\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 11.0N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 11.7N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 13.4N 113.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 14.2N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 16.0N 115.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 19.0N 117.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n900 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the tropical cyclone has continued\r\nto expand this morning with a large area of cloud top temperatures\r\ncolder than -70 degrees Celsius.  The convection has also become\r\nbetter organized with an increase in banding and a developing\r\ncentral dense overcast.  Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and\r\nTAFB were T2.5, which support upgrading the depression to a 35-kt\r\ntropical storm.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/12. Andres is located to the\r\nsouth and southwest of a mid-level ridge that extends from\r\nsouth-central Mexico west-southwestward over the eastern Pacific.\r\nThis ridge is expected to be the main steering influence during the\r\nnext several days, and should cause Andres to move\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward.  After 48 hours, track guidance\r\nspread increases, with the GFDL, HWRF, and ECMWF models taking\r\nAndres on a more northerly track, while the GFS and GFS ensemble\r\nmaintain a northwesterly motion.  The NHC track forecast remains\r\nnear the multi-model consensus for now.\r\n\r\nWarm water and low shear during the next 2-3 days should allow for\r\nsteady strengthening.  In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 60%\r\nchance of at least a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours. The\r\nupdated NHC forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over\r\nthe next 36 h than the previous one. In 2 to 3 days, the cyclone\r\nwill be approaching slightly cooler waters which should induce\r\nweakening by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 11.6N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 12.3N 112.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 13.0N 113.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 13.8N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 14.8N 114.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 16.7N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 18.0N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown and Barack Obama (PRESIDENT)\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n300 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Andres continues to improve, with a\r\nband of convection now wrapping about three-quarters of the way\r\naround the center.  A recent ASCAT pass revealed maximum winds\r\nof about 50 kt, so the initial intensity has been increased\r\naccordingly.  The scatterometer data also provided a better\r\nestimate of the size of the tropical cyclone wind field, and the\r\ntropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted outward.\r\n\r\nThe satellite data indicate that the center is located a bit\r\nsouthwest of the previous estimate, but the overall initial motion\r\nremains west-northwest or 295 degrees at 10 kt.  The track forecast\r\nreasoning is unchanged from before.  Andres should move west-\r\nnorthwestward to northwestward around the southwestern portion of a\r\nmid-level ridge extending westward over the eastern Pacific from\r\ncentral Mexico.  The 1200 UTC global models show more ridging to the\r\nnorth of Andres late in the period than previous runs, which has\r\nresulted in a westward shift in the track guidance.  The NHC\r\nforecast has been adjusted westward, but it lies along the right\r\nside of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions consisting of warm water and low shear\r\nshould allow for continued steady strengthening during the next\r\ncouple of days.  Although the latest SHIPS RI index shows a lower\r\nchance of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours than this\r\nmorning, it would not be surprising if rapid intensification\r\noccurred.  The NHC forecast is near the upper end of the intensity\r\nguidance and is closest to the SHIPS model.  After 72 hours, Andres\r\nshould begin to weaken when it encounters slightly cooler sea\r\nsurface temperatures and a drier and more stable airmass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 11.6N 112.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 12.3N 113.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 13.1N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 13.9N 115.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 16.5N 117.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 17.5N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 18.0N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n900 PM MDT THU MAY 28 2015\r\n\r\nAndres is continuing to intensify.  Although the cloud tops\r\nnear the center have recently warmed, the latest microwave and\r\nconventional satellite images are now showing the formation of a\r\nragged eye.  An average of the latest intensity estimates is just\r\nbelow hurricane strength, so the initial wind speed is set to 60\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe storm appears to be moving to the west-northwest at about 9 kt,\r\na bit slower than before.  Andres should turn northwestward\r\ntomorrow as a result of a slight weakness in the subtropical ridge.\r\nIn a few days, the ridge restrengthens, which should then steer\r\nAndres more toward the west-northwest and west.  The latest models\r\nhave again shifted to the left, apparently due to a stronger ridge\r\nthan originally predicted, and the official forecast follows the\r\nwestward trend in the model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough it seems clear that the cyclone should strengthen over the\r\nnext couple of days with generally favorable environmental\r\nconditions, the amount of shear is a wild card for this forecast.\r\nMost of the global models are showing shear values that are higher\r\nthan ideal for rapid intensification, and the shear is the biggest\r\ninhibitor in the latest SHIPS RI index.  Andres has been moving\r\nleft of expected, however, which has been prolonging the lower shear\r\nand warmest water conditions.  Thus, the new NHC wind speed forecast\r\nwill remain above most of the guidance, similar to the previous\r\nprediction, and it would not be surprising if this forecast is too\r\nlow for the reasons given above.  After 48 hours, Andres should\r\nbegin to weaken when it encounters cooler waters and a more stable\r\nair mass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 11.8N 113.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 12.5N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 13.5N 115.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 14.4N 116.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 15.3N 116.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 16.7N 118.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 17.5N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 18.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n300 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015\r\n\r\nAndres's intensification trend appears to have ceased for the\r\nmoment.  Infrared satellite imagery suggests that the cyclone is\r\ntrying to develop a banded-eye structure, but the overall pattern\r\nreally hasn't improved much since the last advisory.  In fact, the\r\nDvorak final-T number from TAFB decreased to 3.5, and remained at\r\n3.5 from SAB, so the initial intensity is being held at 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving a little slower to the west-northwest, or 295/8\r\nkt, to the south of the subtropical ridge.  A slight weakness in the\r\nridge should allow Andres to move northwestward later today through\r\nSaturday night.  The ridge is forecast to rebuild, however, and the\r\ncyclone will likely move west-northwestward and then westward on\r\ndays 3-5.  There has been no apparent shift in the latest track\r\nguidance as there had been in previous cycles, and therefore the\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged from the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nThe SHIPS model diagnostics indicate that a modest amount of north-\r\nnortheasterly shear is affecting Andres, which could be the reason\r\nfor the temporary hiatus in strengthening.  SHIPS indicates that\r\nthe current level of shear should continue for the next 24 hours,\r\nand after that the thermodynamic environment becomes gradually less\r\nfavorable for significant strengthening.  Due to these less-than-\r\nideal conditions, the latest intensity guidance shows Andres peaking\r\nat a lower intensity compared to previous cycles, and the updated\r\nNHC intensity forecast has therefore been lowered a bit.  Even with\r\nthis adjustment, however, the official forecast is still higher\r\nthan most of the models, especially at 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 12.0N 113.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 12.8N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 13.8N 115.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 14.8N 116.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 15.7N 117.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 17.0N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 18.0N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 18.5N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n900 AM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015\r\n\r\n\r\nAndres is just below hurricane strength.  Although an eye feature\r\nis no longer apparent in infrared and visible satellite images, the\r\nassociated convection has been deepening during the past few hours.\r\nMicrowave images show that the structure of Andres is asymmetric\r\nwith well-defined banding to the south of the center and limited\r\nmore fragmented bands to the north of the center.  A blend of the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates and ADT values still yield an intensity\r\nestimate of 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe SHIPS model indicates that Andres is currently experiencing\r\nabout 15 kt of northerly shear, which is likely part of the reason\r\nwhy the storm has leveled off in intensity for the time being. This\r\nshear is expected to persist for another 12 to 24 hours, but it\r\nshould lessen some thereafter.  Therefore, slow strengthening is\r\nexpected during the next couple of days while the cyclone remains\r\nover warm water.  Beyond a couple of days, Andres is expected to\r\nmove over cooler water and into a drier and more stable airmass.\r\nThese unfavorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the system\r\nto weaken.  The official intensity forecast is a little lower than\r\nthe previous one, and lies at the high end of the model guidance.\r\n\r\nAndres continues on a west-northwestward track at about 8 kt.  A\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge should cause the storm to move\r\nnorthwestward during the next day or two.  After that time, a turn\r\nback to the west-northwest is predicted when the ridge restrengthens\r\nto the north of the storm.  The model guidance is in good agreement\r\noverall, and the official forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand lies close to the consensus aids.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 12.5N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 13.3N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 14.3N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 15.4N 117.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 16.2N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 17.3N 121.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 18.2N 124.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 18.8N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n300 PM MDT FRI MAY 29 2015\r\n\r\nCorrected to change NHC model to NHC model guidance\r\n\r\nConvective banding features have increased since the previous\r\nadvisory, and a tight banding eye feature has occasionally appeared\r\nin visible satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite estimates\r\nare a consensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS\r\nADT values are T4.3/72 kt. Based on these data, Andres has been\r\nupgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.\r\n\r\nAndres has made the anticipated turn toward the northwest, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is now 310/06 kt. This general motion is\r\nexpected to continue for about the next 36-48 hours as the\r\nhurricane moves around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge\r\nlocated across mainland Mexico and Baja California. The ridge is\r\nforecast to gradually build westward after 72 hours, forcing\r\nAndres to turn back toward the west-northwest. The NHC model\r\nguidance is in excellent agreement on this developing scenario, and\r\nthe guidance is tightly clustered around the previous forecast\r\ntrack. As a result, the official forecast track is just an update\r\nand extension of the previous advisory track.\r\n\r\nDespite moderate northerly vertical wind shear, Andres has\r\nmaintained a fairly impressive outflow pattern. However, the 850-200\r\nmb vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to\r\naround 15 kt during the next 24 hours, followed by decreasing shear\r\nat 36 to 48 hours. Now that Andres has established better inner-core\r\nconvection and a possible eye feature, at least modest strengthening\r\nshould occur during the next 48 hours or so. Thereafter, decreasing\r\nsea surface temperatures and cooler and more stable low-level air\r\nlying just to the northwest of the hurricane should begin to affect\r\nAndres. Visible satellite imagery already indicates that cold\r\nair stratocumulus clouds are being advected into the northwestern\r\nportion of the outer circulation, which should mitigate the\r\notherwise favorable thermodynamic conditions. As a result, a steady\r\ndecrease in the intensity should occur after 72 hours, despite the\r\nlow vertical wind shear regime through which the cyclone will be\r\nmoving. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory, and is above the intensity consensus model ICON and close\r\nto the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 12.8N 114.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 13.6N 115.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 14.7N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 15.7N 117.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 16.4N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 17.4N 121.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 18.5N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 18.8N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI MAY 29 2015\r\n\r\nAndres is gradually intensifying.  The cyclone is maintaining a\r\nsymmetric central dense overcast, consisting of plenty of\r\ncold-topped deep convection. A 2256 UTC GPM microwave pass showed\r\nnumerous, well organized convective bands and a closed low-level\r\nring of convection; in addition, a warm spot has recently become\r\nevident in infrared satellite imagery.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates at 0000 UTC were 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/75 kt from SAB and\r\nTAFB, respectively, and the latest ADT value from UW-CIMSS is 4.3/72\r\nkt. Since that time, Andres' cloud pattern has increased further in\r\norganization, and the initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.\r\n\r\nAndres' motion has shifted toward the right or northwest, 320/06, in\r\nresponse to a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 115w caused\r\nby a shortwave trough near the Baja California peninsula.  After\r\nthis feature moves eastward tomorrow, the ridge is forecast to\r\nrebuild which should result in the track's bending toward the west-\r\nnorthwest and west by 36 to 48 hours.  For this forecast cycle,\r\nthere has been a notable shift in the guidance to the left through\r\n48 hours, and the track has generally been shifted in that direction\r\nbut not as far left as the ECMWF and GFS solutions.  After 48 hours,\r\nthe spread in the guidance increases, with the GFS depicting a\r\nstronger cyclone on the northern end of the guidance envelope and\r\nthe ECMWF a weaker one on the southern edge.  The official NHC\r\nforecast track lies nearly between the two extremes, close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus (TVCE).\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is challenging. Despite moderate northerly\r\nshear, the cyclone has slowly strengthened during the past 24\r\nhours. Although this shear is forecast to persist through\r\ntomorrow, the cyclone's inner-core structure suggests that further\r\nintensification should occur. The official forecast exceeds the\r\nstatistical-dynamical guidance through 36 hours on the basis of\r\ncurrent trends and the hurricane's well organized inner core.\r\nAlthough the shear should lessen in a day or two, weakening should\r\ncommence as thermodynamics in the near-storm environment gradually\r\nbecome less conducive for intensification.  The official NHC\r\nintensity forecast shows steady weakening after 36 hours, very\r\nsimilar to the multi-model consensus (ICON).\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 13.4N 115.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 14.2N 116.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 15.1N 117.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 15.7N 118.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 17.4N 122.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 18.6N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 19.1N 128.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015\r\n\r\nAndres is producing a relatively compact area of strong convection,\r\nbut the high-level cirrus canopy continues to obscure an eye in\r\ninfrared satellite imagery.  A 0501 UTC AMSU pass showed that the\r\nbulk of the deep convection is located within the eastern and\r\nsouthern eyewall--probably the result of 15-20 kt of north-\r\nnorthwesterly shear.  Nonetheless, Dvorak estimates have notched\r\nupward just a bit (T5.0/90 kt from TAFB, T4.5/77 kt from SAB, and\r\nT4.5/77 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT), and the initial intensity is\r\ntherefore set at 80 kt.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is currently located due south of a weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge, resulting in a northwestward motion of 325/6 kt.\r\nMid-level ridging is expected to strengthen to the north and\r\nnorthwest of Andres during the next couple of days, which should\r\ninduce a west-northwestward turn by tonight.  The track guidance is\r\nin good agreement during the first 48 hours but then diverges\r\nthereafter.  The GFS appears to keep Andres as a hurricane for too\r\nlong after it reaches colder water, and its solution is therefore\r\nconsidered to be a northern outlier.  Otherwise, the remainder of\r\nthe guidance is in relatively good agreement, and the official track\r\nforecast is nearly on top of the previous one.\r\n\r\nGlobal model fields and SHIPS guidance suggest that the shear\r\naffecting Andres will continue for another 18-24 hours.  However,\r\nthe shear doesn't appear quite strong enough to significantly\r\ndisrupt the circulation, and the thermodynamic environment remains\r\nconducive for some further short-term strengthening.  After 24\r\nhours, the oceanic heat content falls to zero, so Andres will begin\r\nto upwell colder water and start a steady weakening trend that will\r\ncontinue through the end of the forecast period.  The intensity\r\nguidance is in general agreement of this scenario, and the new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is just an update of the 0300Z forecast, close\r\nto the multi-model consensus (ICON).\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 14.0N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 14.7N 116.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 15.4N 117.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 16.0N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 16.5N 120.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 17.8N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 19.0N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 AM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015\r\n\r\n\r\nAndres has strengthened a little more this morning.  The cloud\r\npattern has become better organized with the eye of the hurricane\r\nintermittently appearing in satellite images.  Recent microwave\r\ndata show a well-defined eyewall, but most of the banding features\r\nare concentrated on the east side of the circulation, likely due to\r\nnorthwesterly shear. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, in\r\nagreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, making\r\nAndres a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind\r\nScale.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane still has about another day over warm water and the\r\nSHIPS model lowers the current shear during that time. Therefore,\r\nsome additional short-term strengthening is possible even though\r\nnone of the models suggest intensification.  After that time,\r\nhowever, Andres is expected to move over progressively cooler\r\nwater and into a more stable airmass.  These unfavorable conditions\r\nshould promote a steady weakening trend.  The official forecast is\r\na little higher than the previous one during the next 36 hours to\r\naccount for the higher initial intensity.\r\n\r\nAndres is moving northwestward at about 6 kt toward a weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is expected to\r\noccur tonight or on Sunday when the ridge builds to the north\r\nof the hurricane, and that general motion should continue for the\r\nremainder of the forecast period.  Little change was made to the\r\nprevious forecast track, and it lies close to the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 14.5N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 15.1N 116.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 15.8N 118.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 16.3N 119.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 16.8N 120.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 18.2N 123.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 19.1N 127.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 19.2N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-05-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015\r\n\r\nAndres' cloud pattern has not changed much during the last several\r\nhours.  The eye of the hurricane remains evident in visible and\r\ninfrared satellite images, but it has been occasionally obscured by\r\nhigh-level clouds.  Recent microwave data show that the western side\r\nof the eyewall has eroded slightly, which is likely the result of\r\nnorthwesterly shear and drier air that is wrapping into that side of\r\nthe circulation.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and the\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT are all 5.0/90 kt, and accordingly, the initial wind\r\nspeed is held at that value.\r\n\r\nAndres continues on a northwestward track at about 6 kt toward a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge.  The models are in agreement\r\nthat the hurricane should turn west-northwestward tonight or early\r\nSunday when the ridge builds to the north of the cyclone. The 12Z\r\nGFS solution has changed considerably from the previous cycle, and\r\nnow shows Andres stalling and then moving eastward in the 96-120\r\nhour time frame in response to a mid- to upper-level trough.  That\r\nmodel is considered an outlier as it is likely keeping Andres too\r\ndeep over cool waters.  The official track forecast is a little to\r\nthe north and slightly slower than the previous one after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is forecast to maintain its strength for about a day\r\nwhile it remains over warm water and in an environment of\r\ndecreasing shear.  Steady weakening is anticipated beyond that\r\ntime, however, when Andres moves over progressively cooler water\r\nand into a much more stable air mass.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is basically an update of the previous one and is in good\r\nagreement with the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were expanded on the east side of\r\nthe circulation based on a 1650 UTC ASCAT-B pass. The 12-ft sea\r\nradii were also expanded based on a recent altimeter pass that\r\nshowed sea heights as high as 28 ft.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 14.8N 116.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 15.4N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 15.9N 118.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 16.9N 121.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 18.5N 124.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-05-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 PM PDT SAT MAY 30 2015\r\n\r\nAndres has strengthened further today despite moderate northwesterly\r\nshear. The cyclone had been maintaining a symmetric central dense\r\novercast (CDO), and the eye had slowly warmed until about 0000 UTC.\r\nOver the past few hours though, the CDO has become more irregularly\r\nshaped and the eye more indistinct. Dvorak T-numbers were 5.5/102 kt\r\nat 0000 UTC from both agencies, and UW-CIMSS ADT values leveled off\r\nat 5.7/107 kt. These data suggest that Andres may have been a major\r\nhurricane at that time, but satellite data suggest that the cyclone\r\nhas since begun to weaken. The initial intensity is set at 95 kt,\r\nslightly lower than 0000 UTC intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nAndres is still moving generally northwestward in response to a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge around 120w. Most of the track\r\nguidance shows a high pressure ridge north of the cyclone\r\nstrengthening on Sunday which should cause the cyclone to turn\r\nwest-northwestward. Beyond 48 hours, the track models significantly\r\ndiverge, with the GFS-based guidance depicting a stronger cyclone\r\nbeing steered northwestward over cool waters, followed by an\r\neastward turn. The ECMWF shows a weaker version of Andres eventually\r\nturning westward, with its solution on the southern side of the\r\nguidance envelope.  The official NHC forecast is close to the multi-\r\nmodel consensus (TVCE) through 36 hours.  After that, the overly\r\nstrong GFS run is disregarded, resulting in a track forecast\r\nrelatively far left of TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe shear over Andres is forecast to decrease dramatically within\r\n24 hours, but the cyclone will be moving over gradually cooler\r\nwaters and ingesting drier and more stable air during the next\r\ncouple of days.  This competition between dynamic and thermodynamic\r\nfactors should result in a slow weakening through 48 hours. After\r\nthat time, even more unfavorable thermodynamic conditions could\r\nresult in a quicker rate of weakening, and Andres is expected to\r\nbecome a remnant low by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nclose to LGEM and somewhat lower than the multi-model consensus\r\nICON.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 15.1N 116.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 15.6N 117.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 16.1N 119.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 16.5N 120.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 17.0N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 18.4N 125.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 19.3N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 19.3N 130.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-05-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015\r\n\r\nAndres appears to have peaked in intensity during the early evening\r\nhours.  Since that time, the eye has become obscured in infrared\r\nsatellite imagery and the cloud pattern has become somewhat less\r\nsymmetric. Dvorak data T-numbers from both SAB and TAFB have\r\ndecreased, and based on recent satellite trends the initial\r\nintensity has been lowered to 90 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is northwest or 305 degrees at 6 kt.\r\nAndres is forecast to turn west-northwestward today as a mid-level\r\nridge to the north of the hurricane strengthens. A west-\r\nnorthwestward motion should then continue during the next couple of\r\ndays.  By 72 hours, a deepening mid-latitude trough is forecast to\r\napproach the west coast of the United States.  The dynamical models\r\nthat maintain a stronger tropical cyclone, turn Andres northward and\r\nnortheastward ahead of the trough.  The GFDL and ECMWF which depict\r\na weaker Andres, show a continued west-northwestward track in the\r\nlow- to mid-level easterly flow.  The NHC forecast continues to lean\r\ntoward the latter solution, but shows a slower forward motion at\r\ndays 4 and 5 than the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nAlthough moderate west-northwesterly shear that is currently\r\nover Andres is forecast to decrease during the next 24 hours, the\r\nhurricane will be moving over cool water which should cause a\r\ngradual reduction in intensity.  A faster rate of weakening is\r\nexpected to begin in 36 to 48 hours after the cyclone moves over\r\nwaters less than 26C and into a drier and more stable environment.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 15.4N 117.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 15.8N 118.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 16.3N 119.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 16.8N 120.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 19.0N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 19.5N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-05-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 AM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015\r\n\r\nAndres appears to be maintaining its strength for now.  The cloud\r\npattern of the hurricane consists of a central dense overcast with\r\nan eye occasionally evident in infrared satellite images.  There is\r\nsome indication of drier air wrapping around the circulation as seen\r\nin total precipitate water imagery.  The Dvorak classifications from\r\nTAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS were generally the same as the previous\r\ncycle, so the initial wind speed estimate remains 90 kt.\r\n\r\nSteady weakening is anticipated to begin by tonight when the\r\nhurricane moves over progressively cooler water and into a much more\r\nstable air mass.  Andres is expected to become a remnant low by the\r\nend of the forecast period, when it is forecast to be over sea\r\nsurface temperatures cooler than 24 C.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is unchanged from the previous one and is in line with much\r\nof the guidance.\r\n\r\nAndres has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the\r\nlatest initial motion estimate is 290/7.  This general motion is\r\nexpected to continue for the next few days while the system remains\r\non the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge.  After that time,\r\nthere remains significant spread in the model guidance.  The\r\nGFS, GEFS ensemble mean, UKMET, and HWRF models show Andres stalling\r\nand then turning northeastward toward a mid- to upper-level trough.\r\nConversely, the ECMWF model shows Andres moving slowly westward\r\nduring the 72-120 hour time frame in the low-level flow.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is a little north of and slower than the\r\nprevious one at 72 hours and beyond.  This forecast continues to\r\nlean toward the ECMWF model, especially in the longer range, which\r\nappears to have the most realistic solution of a decaying tropical\r\ncyclone moving over cool water.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 15.5N 118.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 15.8N 119.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 16.4N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 17.0N 121.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 17.8N 123.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 19.3N 126.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 19.8N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 19.9N 127.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-05-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Andres has improved considerably since\r\nthis morning.  The eye has become more distinct and warmed in\r\ninfrared imagery, and is now surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of\r\nabout -60C to -70C.  Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have\r\nincreased, and currently range from T5.5/102 kt to T6.1/117 kt.  The\r\ninitial intensity has been raised to 110 kt for this advisory.\r\nBeyond the observed intensity increase today, the overall intensity\r\nforecast reasoning has not changed.  The cyclone will be moving over\r\ncooler waters during the forecast period, and should cross the 26C\r\nisotherm in about 36 hours, which should result in weakening.  More\r\nrapid weakening forecast at 48 hours and beyond, with Andres\r\nforecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days as the shear\r\nincreases over very cool SSTs.  The new NHC intensity forecast is\r\nhigher than the previous one through 48 hours to account for the\r\ninitial intensity, and is similar after that.  The official\r\nforecast is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has jogged to the left since this morning, with an\r\ninitial motion of 270/07.  Andres should gradually turn poleward\r\nduring the next several days as a weakness develops in the\r\nsubtropical ridge around 125W.  There remains a fair bit of spread\r\nin the track guidance throughout the period.  The UKMET and ECMWF\r\nare initially to the left of the rest of the guidance for the first\r\n12 to 24 hours, and the NHC forecast trends towards those aids given\r\nthe more westerly initial motion.  Late in the period, all of the\r\ndynamical models now show a turn toward the north and northeast, but\r\nsignificant spread remains.  Given that Andres should be sheared\r\napart by days 4 and 5, the NHC forecast shows only a slow northward\r\ndrift, in better agreement with the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean.\r\nThe GFS remains an outlier with a track that appears to go too far\r\nto the northeast for such a weak system.  Beyond 24 hours, the new\r\nNHC track is similar to or a little to the right of the previous\r\none, adjusted for the initial position and motion, and lies\r\na little to the left of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on a\r\nrecent ASCAT pass.\r\n\r\nAndres is only the fifth major hurricane to form in the basin in\r\nMay since reliable records began in 1970. Previous May major\r\nhurricanes were Adolph (2001), Alma (2002), Bud (2012), and Amanda\r\n(2014).\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 15.3N 118.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 15.5N 119.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 16.3N 121.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 20.0N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-06-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015\r\n\r\nThe rather unexpected intensification noted earlier today has\r\ncontinued into this evening.  Andres has a classic presentation on\r\nsatellite images, with a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye embedded\r\nwithin a symmetric mass of very deep convection.  The current\r\nintensity estimate is set at 120 kt, which is a blend of the latest\r\nsubjective and objective Dvorak analyses.\r\n\r\nAndres continues to move slowly westward, or 270/5 kt, in a weak\r\nsteering current.  Within 36 hours, the global models show a\r\nmid-tropospheric anticyclone building in the vicinity of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  This should cause Andres to turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest and northwest at a slightly faster forward speed.\r\nAfter 72 hours, a mid-tropospheric trough is predicted to dig near\r\nthe longitude of the cyclone.  Andres should be rapidly weakening by\r\nthat time, however, and will likely not respond much to the flow at\r\nthat level.  Therefore the official track forecast shows only a\r\nnortheastward drift at 96-120 hours.  This is similar to the\r\nprevious forecast and leans toward the ECMWF model track\r\n\r\nEven though Andres has intensified significantly today, the\r\nnumerical intensity guidance insists on a weakening trend beginning\r\nsoon.  The hurricane is likely to encounter a more stable and drier\r\nenvironment in the next day or two, and sea surface temperatures\r\nwill be gradually cooling.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the model consensus through 72 hours, and below it\r\nafterwards since the cyclone is likely to be reduced to a remnant\r\nlow over quite cool waters by that time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 15.3N 119.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 15.8N 120.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 16.7N 121.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 17.7N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 18.7N 124.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 20.0N 126.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0000Z 21.0N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-06-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite appearance of Andres has changed little overnight.\r\nThe hurricane is exhibiting characteristics of an annular hurricane\r\nwith a well-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye, a symmetric mass of deep\r\nconvection, and a lack of outer banding features.  A blend of the\r\nsubjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates support an\r\ninitial intensity of 125 kt.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving westward or 275 degrees at 5 kt. Andres\r\nshould turn west-northwestward, then northwestward during the next\r\ncouple of days while a mid-level ridge builds over northwestern\r\nMexico.  By day 3, a deepening mid-latitude trough is expected to\r\napproach the longitude of the tropical cyclone.  Andres should be\r\nmuch weaker by then, and will likely not respond as much to the\r\nmid-level southwesterly flow.  Therefore, the NHC forecast shows a\r\nslow northward to northeastward motion at days 4 and 5.  The\r\nupdated track is close to the Florida State Superensemble and is\r\nnear the middle of the model envelope.\r\n\r\nGiven the expected low shear conditions and annular characteristics\r\nof Andres, the hurricane is likely to weaken a little less than\r\nthe guidance indicates today.  After that, Andres will be moving\r\ninto a more stable environment and over cooler waters, which\r\nshould result in a faster rate of weakening.  By day 3, increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear is likely to cause the circulation to decouple,\r\nand Andres is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low\r\nshortly thereafter.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 15.5N 119.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 16.1N 120.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 17.1N 122.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 18.1N 123.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 19.0N 125.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 20.2N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 20.8N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0600Z 21.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-06-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nEnhanced infrared B-D curve imagery indicates that the eye\r\ntemperature has cooled considerably this morning to about 7 Celsius,\r\nwhich results in a decrease of the subjective satellite intensity\r\nestimates to T6.0 (115 kt).  Based on a compromise of these\r\nestimates and the objective data-T of 6.7 (132kt), the initial\r\nintensity is lowered slightly to 120 kt.  Earlier IR satellite\r\nimagery showed that Andres peaked around 0900 UTC at an estimated\r\n130 kt and it now appears that the expected weakening trend has\r\nbegun, likely due to the intruding stable atmospheric marine layer\r\nfrom the northwest. Andres should be moving over cooler waters\r\nduring the next 24 hours, which should result in a more rapid\r\nrate of weakening.  The aforementioned stable air mass, cooler\r\nwater, and increasing southwesterly shear by day 3, should cause the\r\ncyclone to become a tropical storm in 48 hours, and a remnant low in\r\n96 hours or less.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has made its expected turn toward the west-northwest\r\nand is now moving at 285/5kt.  Andres is forecast to turn toward the\r\nnorthwest in about 48 hours as the subtropical ridge begins to\r\nweaken with the approach of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough from\r\nthe northwest.  By day 3, the approaching trough is expected to\r\nresult in a gradual turn toward the north and northeast but with a\r\nsignificant reduction is forward speed because of the sheared,\r\nshallow structure of the cyclone.  The official forecast is similar\r\nto the previous advisory and is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus,\r\nGFEX.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 15.7N 120.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 16.5N 121.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 17.5N 123.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 18.5N 124.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 19.2N 125.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 20.3N 125.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 20.8N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z 20.8N 124.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-06-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nThis afternoon's satellite presentation continues to show\r\ndeterioration of the cloud pattern with significant warming of the\r\ncloud tops, particularly over the western portion.  The initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 110 kt based on a blend of Dvorak\r\nfinal-T and current intensity numbers of 5.5/6.5.\r\n\r\nThe intensity consensus model IVCN indicates Andres weakening to a\r\ntropical storm in 36 hours and further diminishing to a remnant low\r\nin 96 hours, and the official intensity forecast follows suit.  It's\r\nalso worth mentioning that a few of the statistical-dynamical\r\nintensity models show the cyclone dissipating in 4 days, which is\r\ncertainly possible.\r\n\r\nAndres has been moving a little to the left of its earlier track\r\nthis morning, with an initial motion of 285/7 kt.  A weakness in the\r\nmid-tropospheric ridge extending westward from northern Mexico is\r\nforecast to develop near 125W in 48 hours, prompting Andres to turn\r\nslowly toward the northwest.  After that time, the rapidly weakening\r\ncyclone is expected to drift to the north and northeast within a\r\nweak low to mid-level steering current until dissipation.  The\r\nofficial forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory\r\nand is close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus, GFEX.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent\r\nISS-RapidScat overpass, which showed a larger extent of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds over the southeastern quadrant than\r\nearlier estimated.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 15.9N 121.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 16.7N 122.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 17.8N 123.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 18.7N 125.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 19.5N 125.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 20.3N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 20.5N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 20.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-06-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows that the coverage and intensity of central\r\ndeep convection are gradually decreasing, especially over the\r\nnorthwest quadrant of the cyclone.  In addition, the eye has become\r\nmuch less apparent. The initial wind speed is set at 100 kt, which\r\nis a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers.  Andres will\r\nsoon be crossing the 26 deg C SST isotherm while continuing to\r\ninteract with a drier and more stable air mass.  These environmental\r\nfactors should cause continued weakening, and the cyclone is likely\r\nto drop below hurricane strength within 36 hours or less.  The NHC\r\nwind forecast closely follows the intensity model consensus.  Andres\r\nis forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 96 hours, but some\r\nof the guidance indicates that this event will occur sooner than\r\nthat.\r\n\r\nAfter jogging to the left earlier today, Andres has now jogged to\r\nthe right.  Smoothing out the jogs yields an initial motion of\r\n300/7 kt.  The mid-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone\r\nis forecast to gradually break down over the next couple of days,\r\nand this should induce Andres to turn toward the northwest and\r\nnorth.  Afterwards, a mid-level trough digs over the cyclone, but\r\nAndres should have become a shallower system and be steered slowly\r\neastward by the weaker lower-level flow.  The official forecast is\r\nvery close to the latest Florida State University Superensemble\r\ntrack through 48 hours and close to the multi-model consensus\r\nafter that.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 16.6N 121.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 17.3N 122.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 18.4N 124.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 19.3N 125.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 20.4N 124.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 20.4N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z 20.3N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-06-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that Andres continues to weaken.  The deep\r\nconvection has become less symmetric and the eye is no longer\r\napparent.  A blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from\r\nSAB and TAFB yield an initial intensity of 90 kt.  The hurricane\r\nwill be moving over sea surface temperatures of less than 26 degrees\r\nCelsius very soon, and into a drier and more stable environment.\r\nThese unfavorable conditions will cause steady weakening, and Andres\r\nis forecast to weaken to a tropical storm within 24 hours, and\r\nbecome a post-tropical cyclone in 72 hours, if not sooner.  The\r\nglobal models suggest that the circulation will become an open\r\ntrough in about 5 days, and the official forecast follows suit by\r\ncalling for dissipation by 120 h.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt.  The forecast reasoning\r\nfrom the previous advisory remains unchanged.  A mid-level ridge to\r\nthe north of Andres is forecast to shift eastward as a deepening\r\nmid-latitude trough approaches the west coast of the United States\r\nduring the next couple of days.  This should cause the tropical\r\ncyclone to move northwestward, then northward.  After 48 hours,\r\na weaker Andres is forecast to turn slowly eastward within the\r\nlow-level flow.  The new track forecast is essentially an update of\r\nthe previous advisory, but shows a slightly faster eastward motion\r\nlate in the period to be in better agreement with the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 17.2N 122.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 18.0N 123.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 19.0N 124.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 19.8N 124.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 20.1N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 20.3N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 20.2N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-06-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nAndres continues to deteriorate this morning with the coldest cloud\r\ntops limited to the eastern portion of the cloud pattern.  The\r\ninitial intensity is lowered to 80 kt based on a blend of Dvorak\r\nFinal-T and Current Intensity numbers of T4.0/5.0. Andres is\r\ntraversing cooler sea surface temperatures of 25 degrees Celsius\r\nwhile the drier, stable, marine layer intruding from the northwest\r\ncontinues to adversely affect the inner-core convection.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensus IVCN.\r\nAndres is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in 72 hours,\r\nhowever some of the deterministic and ensemble models indicate an\r\neven faster rate of weakening.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/9 kt.  The subtropical ridge to\r\nthe north of Andres should gradually weaken over the next couple of\r\ndays, causing Andres to turn toward the northwest and north.\r\nThrough the latter portions of the period, Andres is forecast to\r\nturn slowly east-northeastward and drift within the weak low to\r\nmid-level steering current produced by the aforementioned deep-layer\r\ntrough.  There are no significant changes to the previous advisory\r\nand the NHC forecast is based on a blend of the TVCE model consensus\r\nand the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT-B\r\noverpass which showed a decreased extent of tropical-storm-force\r\nwinds over the southeast and southwest quadrants than earlier\r\nestimated.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.8N 122.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.6N 123.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 19.5N 124.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.1N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 20.2N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 19.9N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-06-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nAndres continues to spin down this afternoon, and a timely 1553\r\nUTC SSMIS microwave overpass revealed a partial eyewall with the\r\nremaining portion located over the northern quadrant.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 75 kt which agrees with the Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The rate of weakening is\r\nexpected to increase as Andres moves over even cooler waters during\r\nthe next couple of days.  An inhibiting thermodynamic environment\r\nand anticipated southwesterly shear near the 48-hour period should\r\nalso contribute to the prompt demise of the cyclone.  Andres is\r\nexpected to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or so with\r\ndissipation in 4 days or less.  The NHC official forecast follows\r\na blend of the SHIPS model and the IVCN multi-model intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimated to be at 305/9 kt.  A break in the\r\nmid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast\r\nto develop during the next couple of days which should induce a turn\r\ntoward the northwest and north.  After the 36 hour period, Andres is\r\nexpected to turn northeastward, then east-northeastward on Thursday\r\nwhile moving slowly within the weak low- to mid-level flow as a\r\nshallow, sheared system.  For the remaining forecast period, Andres\r\nis expected to ultimately drift toward the east-southeast within the\r\nperipheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated several hundred miles\r\nto its east.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory\r\nand sides with the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 18.3N 123.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 19.1N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 19.8N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 19.9N 125.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 20.0N 124.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 19.9N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 19.2N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Andres","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-06-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nAndres continues to weaken this evening as it moves over sea\r\nsurface temperatures of 25C.  Although the vertical wind shear\r\nis light, several recent microwave images suggest that the system is\r\nno longer vertically stacked, with the mid-level center located\r\nnorth of the low-level center.  The initial intensity is reduced to\r\n70 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB, and this could be a little generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now estimated to be 305/7.  There is little\r\nchange to either the track forecast philosophy or the forecast\r\nguidance since the previous advisory. A developing break in the\r\nmid-level tropospheric ridge to the north of the cyclone should\r\ninduce Andres to turn northward and decelerate during the next 24\r\nhours. After that time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to\r\nturn eastward and east-southeastward as Hurricane Blanca to the\r\nsoutheast becomes the dominant steering influence.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is an update of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nA combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures along the\r\nforecast track, increasing vertical wind shear, and dry air\r\nentrainment should cause Andres to quickly weaken.  The cyclone is\r\nforecast to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less, a tropical\r\ndepression in about 36 hours, and a remnant low in about 48 hours.\r\nThe remnant low is expected to dissipate by 120 hours as it gets\r\ncloser to Hurricane Blanca.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 18.6N 124.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 19.2N 124.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 19.8N 125.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 19.8N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 19.8N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 19.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 18.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-06-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nThe coverage and intensity of convection associated with Andres\r\ncontinues to decrease as the cyclone moves over cooler waters.  The\r\ninitial intensity is lowered to 60 kt, which is a blend of the\r\nlatest Dvorak T- and Current Intensity numbers from SAB and TAFB.\r\nIncreasing vertical wind shear, decreasing sea surface temperatures\r\nalong the forecast track, and a drier and more stable airmass should\r\ncause steady weakening during the next couple of days.  Andres is\r\nexpected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 36 hours,\r\nand become a post-tropical remnant low shortly thereafter.  The\r\ncirculation is forecast to become an open trough before the end\r\nof the forecast period.\r\n\r\nAndres is moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  A deepening\r\nmid-level trough to the north of the cyclone is expected to cause\r\nAndres to turn northward and decelerate today.  As the cyclone\r\nbecomes a shallow system, it is forecast to turn eastward, then\r\neast-southeastward in the low-level flow.  The updated track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the\r\nECMWF/GFS consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 19.2N 124.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 19.8N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 20.0N 125.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 20.0N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 19.9N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 19.4N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 18.8N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":26,"Date":"2015-06-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nThe deep convection associated with Andres continues to shrink in\r\nsize and is limited to the northeastern semicircle.  Dvorak\r\nestimates correspondingly have fallen with a blend of the ADT,\r\nSAB, and TAFB numbers indicating an intensity of about 50 kt.\r\nAndres should continue to be convectively challenged because it\r\nis anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable\r\nair, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear.  Steady\r\nweakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by\r\nFriday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable\r\nintensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nAndres is moving toward the northwest at 7 kt, primarily due to\r\nsteering induced by a deep-layered ridge to its northeast.\r\nHowever, the cyclone will be situated Thursday and Friday within a\r\ncol region with little steering flow and Andres should\r\nmeander.  In about three days, the remnant low of Andres should\r\nmove east-southeastward as it gets swept up the by large\r\ncirculation of Hurricane Blanca to its east.  The official track\r\nforecast is based upon the multi-model variable track\r\nguidance - TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly\r\nclustered.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 19.6N 125.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 20.0N 125.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 20.1N 125.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 19.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 19.7N 124.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 19.0N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 18.4N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":27,"Date":"2015-06-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nDespite the limited and diminishing deep convection associated with\r\nAndres, a 1304Z RapidScat scatterometer pass indicated at least 50\r\nkt in the western - presumably the weaker - semicircle. Thus it\r\nappears that Andres was more intense earlier today than originally\r\nanalyzed.  Current subjective Dvorak and the ADT intensity estimates\r\nfor Andres have dropped to 35-45 kt.  Given the likely low bias\r\nindicated in the earlier Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is\r\nkept at 50 kt.\r\n\r\nAndres should continue to be convectively challenged because it\r\nis anticipated to remain over cool water, embedded in dry stable\r\nair, and affected by increasingly strong vertical shear.  Steady\r\nweakening is likely and the system should become a remnant low by\r\nFriday, if not earlier, and then dissipate in about five days.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is based upon the multi-model variable\r\nintensity guidance - IVCN - and is unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nIdentifying the center of Andres this afternoon is quite\r\nstraightforward as the center is exposed southwest of the remaining\r\ndeep convection.  The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest\r\nat 5 kt, primarily due to steering induced by a deep-layered ridge\r\nto its northeast. However, the cyclone will shortly be situated\r\nwithin a col region with little steering flow and Andres should\r\nmeander on Thursday and Friday.  In about three days, the remnant\r\nlow of Andres should move east-southeastward as it gets swept up the\r\nby large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to its east.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is based upon the multi-model variable track guidance\r\n- TVCN - of which the member models remain tightly clustered.  This\r\nnew track prediction lies just slightly south of that from the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 19.9N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 20.1N 125.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 20.0N 125.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 19.9N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 19.6N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 17.9N 121.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":28,"Date":"2015-06-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nAndres continues to generate a small area of convection to the\r\nnortheast of the center despite being over sea surface temperatures\r\nnear 24C.  Satellite intensity estimates continue to decrease, and\r\nthe initial intensity is set at 45 kt based on continuity from the\r\nprevious advisory and a 45-kt satellite intensity estimate from\r\nTAFB.  Cold water and increasing vertical wind shear should cause\r\nAndres to steadily weaken through the forecast period.  The cyclone\r\nis expected to weaken to a tropical depression within 24 hours,\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours, and dissipate\r\ncompletely after 96 hours.\r\n\r\nAndres has turned northward over the past several hours with the\r\ninitial motion of 010/3.  The cyclone is likely to be situated\r\nwithin a col region with little steering flow during the next 48\r\nhours or so with only a slow motion expected.  After that time, a\r\nsomewhat faster motion toward the southeast or east-southeast should\r\noccur as the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east\r\nbecomes the main steering influence.  The new forecast track has\r\nbeen nudged a little south of the previous track after 24 hours and\r\nlies near the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 20.2N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 20.3N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.1N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 19.8N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 18.5N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 17.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":29,"Date":"2015-06-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Andres is deteriorating quickly this morning\r\nwith the center of circulation becoming exposed well to the west of\r\nthe dissipating deep convection.   The ambiguity solution of an\r\nearlier 0222 UTC ISS-RapidScat pass showed a few believable 45 kt\r\nwinds to the northeast of the surface center.  Since that time,\r\nhowever, the deep convection in that particular area has decreased\r\nin coverage and the cloud tops have warmed considerably.  Therefore,\r\nthe initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt for this advisory, and\r\nalso agrees with a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  Since Andres is forecast to remain over sub-24\r\ndegrees Celsius waters and within a harsh vertical shear\r\nenvironment, the cyclone is expected to weaken and become a remnant\r\nlow in 24 hours or less.  The NHC intensity forecast, which is\r\nsimilar to the IVCN consensus, calls for Andres to further weaken\r\nand become a post-tropical remnant low within 24 hours, followed by\r\ndissipation in 4 days.\r\n\r\nAndres has barely moved during the past 6 hours, and appears\r\nto be drifting northeastward with an initial motion of 045/2 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is forecast to turn gradually eastward later today and\r\nthen east-southeastward tonight within a weak low to mid-level\r\nsteering current.  For the remaining portion of the forecast, the\r\nlow is expected to gradually accelerate and move toward the\r\nsoutheast within the peripheral flow of Hurricane Blanca situated\r\nseveral hundred miles to its east.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent\r\nISS-RapidScat overpass, which showed a slightly larger extent of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds over the northeast quadrant, and a\r\nsmaller area over the southern semi-circle.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 20.2N 124.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 20.2N 124.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 19.9N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 19.5N 124.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 19.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 18.0N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Andres","Adv":30,"Date":"2015-06-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUN 04 2015\r\n\r\nAndres continues to weaken. The mid-level center of the cyclone\r\nappears to have decoupled from the low-level circulation about 12\r\nhours ago, and only a small area of deep convection remains nearly\r\ntwo degrees removed from the center.  The initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 35 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates\r\nand on the assumption of some decrease in the winds since an\r\novernight ASCAT pass.  Strong west-southwesterly shear and very\r\nunfavorable thermodynamic factors should result in a continued spin\r\ndown of the cyclone, and global models show the circulation of\r\nAndres degenerating into an open trough between 48 and 72 hours.\r\nThe NHC official forecast shows remnant low status in 12 hours and\r\ndissipation a day earlier than the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nAndres is drifting toward the east, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis 095/03. Now that Andres has become fully decoupled and therefore\r\na shallow cyclone, it should be steered by the low-level flow which\r\nis partially controlled by a low-level ridge to its northwest.\r\nHowever, Andres should feel the tug by the large circulation of\r\nHurricane Blanca well to the east.  The resultant flow should\r\nproduce a general southeastward motion until dissipation.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 20.1N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 20.0N 124.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 19.7N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 19.1N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 18.7N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Andres","Adv":31,"Date":"2015-06-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP012015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012015\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUN 04 2015\r\n\r\nAlthough the low-level center of Andres remains intact, organized\r\ndeep convection has been absent from the center for more than 12\r\nhours.  In addition, what minimal convection remains is displaced a\r\nconsiderable distance to the northeast of the center.  On this\r\nbasis, Andres is being designated as a remnant low, and advisories\r\nare being terminated at this time.  Gradual weakening of the vortex\r\nis expected to continue during the next couple of days due to\r\nunfavorable environmental conditions, and global models show Andres\r\ndegenerating into an open trough by Saturday.  The NHC forecast\r\ncalls for dissipation between 48 and 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 095/03.  Now a shallow system, the\r\nremnants of Andres are expected to be primarily steered by the\r\ncombination of low-level ridging to the northwest, along with a tug\r\nby the large circulation of Hurricane Blanca to the east.  This\r\nshould induce a slow east-southeastward to southeastward motion\r\nuntil complete dissipation.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on this remnant low please see High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 20.1N 124.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 20.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 19.7N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 19.1N 123.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 18.7N 122.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-05-31 22:30:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n530 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images this afternoon indicate that deep\r\nconvection has developed over the center of the well-defined low\r\npressure system to the south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  Therefore the\r\nsystem qualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being\r\ninitiated at this time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/05.  The depression is located\r\nin a region of weak steering but with enough ridging in the short\r\nterm for the cyclone to drift generally west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward through Monday.  In 36-48 hours, a mid-level\r\nridge located west of the cyclone could impart an unusual southward\r\nmotion for a day or so.  After that time, global models show\r\nstronger ridging developing over northern Mexico and the\r\nsouth-central United States, which should result in a faster\r\nwest-northwestward or northwestward motion. The official NHC track\r\nforecast is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE) throughout the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nStrong northwesterly vertical wind shear associated with the\r\noutflow of Hurricane Andres should preclude significant\r\nintensification during the next day or two.  After that time, the\r\nshear is expected to become northeasterly and decrease\r\nsubstantially, while the cyclone moves slowly in a moist\r\nenvironment and over very warm waters of around 30 deg C.  These\r\nfactors should lead to a faster rate intensification, perhaps\r\ngreater than what is currently forecast.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is closest to the SHIPS and HWRF models, which show the\r\nmost strengthening of the intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2230Z 12.4N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 13.1N 103.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 13.8N 104.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 13.3N 104.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 12.3N 104.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 12.7N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 15.0N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-06-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the\r\npast few hours.  The center, a tight swirl of low clouds, has\r\ndisappeared underneath new convective growth and a veil of cirrus\r\nclouds.  Deep convection is primarily confined to the southeastern\r\nsemicircle of the depression's circulation, indicative of strong\r\nnorthwesterly shear associated with strong outflow of Hurricane\r\nAndres.  Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0 and T1.5 from TAFB\r\nand SAB, respectively, so the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/04.  A mid-level\r\nridge over Central America should give the depression a push toward\r\nthe west-northwest during the next 24 hours.  An erratic motion with\r\na turn toward the south or south-southeast is expected between 24\r\nand 72 hours, when the depression reaches a col area and then is\r\ncaught up in the weak flow around a mid-level anticyclone to its\r\nwest.  After this time, global models show a trough arriving along\r\nthe U.S. West Coast, which causes a ridge over Baja California to\r\nshift eastward into northern Mexico.  This change in the steering\r\nflow should result in a northwestward motion at a faster forward\r\nspeed toward the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast\r\nhas not changed much over the first 72 hours but is adjusted to the\r\nright after 96 hours to be in better agreement with the multi-model\r\nconsensus (TVCE).\r\n\r\nModerate to strong northwesterly shear over the depression should\r\ncontinue during the next 24 hours, but the shear appears to be\r\nconfined to the upper troposphere and not over a deep enough layer\r\nto prevent slow intensification.  Model guidance is unanimous in\r\nshowing the the shear diminishing to very low values by 36 to 48\r\nhours. The more conducive upper-level winds, combined with very warm\r\nsea surface temperatures of around 30 deg C as well as a very moist\r\nand unstable environment, favor a substantial intensification after\r\n48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is increased to nearly match\r\nthe SHIPS model output, at the upper end of the intensity guidance,\r\nand shows the cyclone reaching major hurricane status in 4 days.\r\nSome increase in easterly shear late in the period is possible, and\r\nthe intensity forecast is therefore leveled off after 96 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 12.7N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.1N 103.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 13.4N 104.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 13.2N 104.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 12.6N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 12.2N 104.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 13.5N 105.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-06-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression is producing a large area of deep convection\r\nwith very cold cloud tops, however, the convection does not appear\r\nto have become significantly better organized overnight.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates are T2.0 on the Dvorak scale and the initial\r\nintensity is held at 30 kt.  The strong northwesterly shear that is\r\ncurrently affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast to decrease\r\nsignificantly during the next 12 to 24 hours.  This should allow\r\nthe depression to strengthen into a tropical storm later today.\r\nBy Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to be within a low shear\r\nenvironment and over very warm waters.  These conditions favor a\r\nfaster rate of intensification and the NHC forecast follows the\r\nSHIPS guidance, which calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane\r\nin about 48 hours, and obtain major hurricane status in 3 to 4\r\ndays.  The intensity forecast is also supported by the global\r\nmodel guidance, which significantly deepen the cyclone in 2 to 3\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nThe center has been extremely difficult to locate overnight,\r\nso the initial motion of 305/5 is much more uncertain than normal.\r\nOverall, little motion is forecast during the next few days\r\nwhile the cyclone remains in an area of weak steering flow.  After\r\n72 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over northern\r\nMexico.  This should cause the cyclone to begin moving northwestward\r\nat a faster forward speed.  The NHC forecast is close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus and the GFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 13.3N 104.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 13.7N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 13.7N 104.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 13.6N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 13.4N 105.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 13.1N 105.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 14.5N 106.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-06-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern of the cyclone features a developing central\r\ndense overcast and an expansive convective band to the east and\r\nsoutheast of the center.  Based on the latest Dvorak classification\r\nof T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, the cyclone is upgraded to Tropical Storm\r\nBlanca on this advisory.  The SHIPS model and satellite analysis\r\nfrom UW-CIMSS show about 20 kt of shear currently affecting Blanca.\r\nHowever, the models show the shear quickly relaxing during the next\r\n12 to 24 hours, which should allow Blanca to take advantage of an\r\notherwise favorable environment.  As a result, steady if not rapid\r\nintensification is expected to begin soon.  In fact, the SHIPS RI\r\nindex shows a 74 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24\r\nhours.  The official forecast follows this trend and shows a quicker\r\nrate of intensification than the previous one through 48 hours.\r\nAdditional strengthening is expected later in the forecast period.\r\nThe new NHC forecast is close to the more aggressive SHIPS model and\r\nis well above the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery from AMSR2 on GCOM-W1 at 0743Z and from the GPM\r\nsatellite at 1031Z were helpful in establishing the initial\r\nposition, which is just a little to the right of the previous\r\nadvisory.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged.  A slow\r\nnorthwestward or west-northwestward motion is expected today,\r\nfollowed by a slow erratic motion through 72 hours as the steering\r\nflow weakens.  Late in the period, a ridge will amplify over\r\nnorthern Mexico which should result in a steadier motion toward the\r\nnorthwest at days 4 and 5.  The new NHC track is a little to the\r\nright of the previous one after an adjustment toward the latest TVCE\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nBlanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast\r\nof Mexico through the forecast period.  However, some rainbands on\r\nthe outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the\r\ncoast during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 13.5N 104.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 13.8N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 13.8N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 13.6N 105.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 13.4N 105.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 15.5N 107.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 18.5N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-06-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca continues to gradually organize, and satellite imagery shows\r\na developing CDO and numerous banding features. The initial\r\nintensity has been raised to 40 kt based on a recent ASCAT-B\r\npass and a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\nSteady if not rapid intensification is expected during the next\r\ncouple of days while the shear is forecast to decrease over the\r\ncyclone. In fact the SHIPS RI index has the highest probabilities\r\nthat I've seen, including an almost 90 percent chance of a 40-kt\r\nincrease in 24 hours. However, the regional hurricane models\r\ncontinue to be much less bullish. The NHC official forecast\r\ncontinues to be closest to the SHIPS model and shows Blanca becoming\r\na hurricane on Tuesday and nearing major hurricane intensity in 48\r\nhours. It is possible that the rate of intensification could be even\r\nfaster than indicated here. Some weakening is expected by day 5 as\r\nthe cyclone begins to encounter cooler waters accompanied by an\r\nincrease in shear.\r\n\r\nBlanca may have drifted a bit eastward over the past few hours, but\r\nthe initial motion estimate is stationary. Little net motion is\r\nforecast during the next 72 hours while the steering currents remain\r\nweak. At days 4 and 5 a northwestward track is expected to begin as\r\na ridge builds to the northeast of Blanca over northern Mexico. The\r\nlatest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one during the\r\nfirst 72 hours and has been adjusted eastward at days 4-5 following\r\nthe trend of the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nBlanca is expected to remain well offshore of the southwestern coast\r\nof Mexico through the forecast period.  However, some rainbands on\r\nthe outer periphery of the circulation could affect portions of the\r\ncoast during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 13.3N 103.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 13.4N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 13.3N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 13.1N 104.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 12.8N 104.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 13.2N 105.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 16.0N 107.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 19.0N 109.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-06-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca is gradually intensifying.  Satellite imagery shows the\r\ncyclone maintaining a small CDO dominated by very cold-topped deep\r\nconvection, with a vigorous primary band over the southeastern\r\nportion of the circulation.  Microwave satellite data, however,\r\nindicate that Blanca's developing inner core currently lacks much\r\norganization.  Regardless, anticyclonic flow over Blanca is also\r\nexpanding and becoming better established, indicative of a\r\ncontinued decrease in shear.  A blend of Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nis used to set the initial intensity to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nBlanca has been meandering southward, but the overall motion is\r\nessentially stationary.  The cyclone should remain trapped in a\r\ncol area during the next 36 hours, but there should be just enough\r\nnortherly or north-northwesterly flow to nudge the center of Blanca\r\non a general southerly course.  By 72 hours, the synoptic steering\r\nover the eastern Pacific should change as an unusually deep longwave\r\ntrough settles into southern California and weak mid-level ridging\r\nnear Baja California shifts eastward and strengthens. This pattern\r\nshould cause Blanca to accelerate on a heading between northwest and\r\nnorth-northwest beginning on Thursday.  Only small adjustments were\r\nmade to the NHC track forecast during the first 36-48 hours, but\r\nthe track has been shifted to the right of the previous one between\r\n72-120 hours, which is close to the multi-model consensus (TVCE).\r\n\r\nNorthwesterly shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease\r\nconsiderably within 24 hours and remain low for a couple of days\r\nafter that, while thermodynamic parameters in the near-storm\r\nenvironment should be exceptionally conducive for rapid\r\nintensification.  An eastward-traveling upper-level shortwave trough\r\nmoving through Mexico in 48-72 hours could also enhance Blanca's\r\noutflow, increasing the likelihood of a significant deepening during\r\nthis time.  Late in the forecast period, east-southeasterly shear\r\nand cooler waters should result in weakening, especially by day 5.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is increased above the previous one and\r\nis closest to the FSU Superensemble and SHIPS model output, and well\r\nabove the weaker regional model solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 13.2N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 13.0N 104.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 12.9N 104.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 12.7N 104.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 12.7N 104.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 14.5N 105.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 16.9N 107.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 20.1N 108.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-06-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Blanca has become a little better organized\r\novernight with increased banding and very deep convection over the\r\ncenter.  However, there has been no recent microwave imagery to\r\nassess the structure of the inner core.  Although the Dvorak\r\nT-numbers are a little higher, a recent ASCAT pass suggest that\r\nthe maximum winds are still 40 to 45 kt.  Therefore, the initial\r\nintensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe shear that has been affecting the cyclone during the past day\r\nor so appears to have decreased with better anticyclonic outflow\r\nnoted over Blanca.  The tropical storm appears to be poised to\r\nintensify as a favorable environment characterized by low shear,\r\nwarm water, and a moist atmosphere is expected during the next few\r\ndays.  The NHC forecast remains in good agreement with the SHIPS and\r\nFSU Superensemble guidance, which both predict rapid strengthening\r\nduring the next day or two.  Late in the forecast period, increasing\r\nshear and cooler SSTs should result in weakening.\r\n\r\nThe ASCAT data suggest that Blanca has drifted westward overnight,\r\nhowever, little overall motion is forecast during the next couple\r\nof days while the cyclone remains in an area of weak steering flow.\r\nAfter 48 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and\r\nshift eastward over northern Mexico.  This should cause Blanca to\r\nmove northwestward at a faster forward speed beginning Thursday.\r\nA northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue on\r\ndays 3 through 5 while Blanca moves around the southwestern\r\nperiphery of the ridge.  The model guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, but has shifted slightly westward this cycle. The\r\nupdated NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction, and lies\r\na little east of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 13.3N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 13.3N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 13.1N 104.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 12.9N 104.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 15.0N 106.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 17.9N 108.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 21.0N 110.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-06-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca is intensifying.  Geostationary imagery shows a CDO and\r\nprominent banding features, and a 0828Z AMSR-2 image from GCOM-W1\r\nshowed a low- and mid-level eye feature.  The latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and the latest ADT is\r\nT4.5/77 kt.  The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  Given that Blanca has developed the inner-core features\r\nseen in microwave imagery and the shear is now below 10 kt, the\r\ncyclone appears to be poised for a period of rapid intensification.\r\nThe NHC forecast is near the highest guidance, showing Blanca\r\nbecoming a major hurricane tomorrow, and conditions appear favorable\r\nfor continued strengthening through 72 hours, when the SHIPS, LGEM\r\nand FSU Superensemble all show a peak near 120 kt.  However, even\r\nthis forecast could be conservative given that the SHIPS RI index\r\nshows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the first 24 hours.\r\nThe shear increases while the cyclone moves over cooler waters at\r\ndays 4 and 5, which should result in steady if not rapid weakening\r\nby the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nBlanca has been moving little over the past few hours, and little\r\nmotion is expected through 36 hours while steering currents remain\r\nweak.  By 48 hours, a slow northwestward motion should begin as a\r\nridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and a faster\r\nnorthwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on days 4\r\nand 5.  The track model guidance is in general agreement on this\r\nscenario, but there continues to be some cycle-to-cycle variability\r\nlate in the period. The multi-model consensus has shifted to the\r\nright again this cycle at days 4 and 5, but only minor changes were\r\nmade to the NHC track, which now lies to the west of the consensus\r\naids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 13.1N 104.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 13.0N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 12.8N 104.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 13.3N 105.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 19.0N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-06-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca continues to strengthen, and although there are no signs of\r\nan eye yet in geostationary imagery, a low- to mid-level eye was\r\nevident on an SSMIS pass from 1413Z.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB are both T4.0/65 kt, and Blanca has been upgraded to a hurricane\r\nfor this advisory.  Blanca has strengthened 20 kt in the past 12\r\nhours and appears to be taking advantage of the favorable\r\nenvironment. There isn't much new to say about the intensity\r\nforecast, as very low shear and warm, deep ocean waters should\r\nsupport rapid strengthening over the next couple of days.  The NHC\r\nforecast follows this trend, forecasting Blanca to be a major\r\nhurricane in about 24 hours and peak near 120 kt in 2 to 3 days,\r\nand this could be conservative.  After 72 hours, the cyclone should\r\nbegin weakening as it moves over much cooler waters and the shear\r\nincreases.  The NHC forecast is close to the SHIPS and LGEM models\r\nthrough the period.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone is still stationary, and little net motion is\r\nexpected for the next 36 hours while steering currents remain weak.\r\nAfter that time, a ridge will build over Mexico to the northeast of\r\nBlanca, which should impart a northwestward track on days 2 and 3,\r\nwith the cyclone turning more toward the north-northwest at days 4\r\nand 5.  The spread of the track guidance increases markedly by day\r\n5.  The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF, and GFDL are faster and farther to the\r\nright, showing a track into the Gulf of California.  On the other\r\nside of the guidance, the ECMWF and especially the UKMET are much\r\nslower and farther to the left, keeping the center of Blanca\r\nsouthwest of the Baja California peninsula.  The NHC forecast has\r\nbeen adjusted a little to the east at days 4 and 5 and now is very\r\nclose to the TVCE multi-model consensus.  Note that it is too soon\r\nto determine what impacts Blanca will have on the Baja California\r\npeninsula, as 5-day track forecast errors average about 170 miles in\r\nthe east Pacific.\r\n\r\nBlanca marks the earliest formation of the second hurricane in the\r\neastern North Pacific basin since reliable records began in 1971.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 13.1N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 12.9N 104.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 13.0N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 14.0N 105.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 16.8N 107.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 20.0N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-06-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015\r\n\r\nAn 0100Z SSMIS pass revealed that the mid-level eye which was\r\nobserved earlier today has shrunk, and spiral convective bands are\r\nemanating away from the central convection, favoring the southern\r\nsemicircle.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to\r\nT4.5/77 kt, so Blanca's initial intensity is raised to 75 kt.  This\r\nis the first instance in which Blanca's intensity has increased by\r\nat least 30 kt over a 24-hour period, so it appears that the\r\nhurricane is now experiencing the period of rapid intensification\r\nthat has been forecast.\r\n\r\nRapid intensification is expected to continue for at least the next\r\n24-36 hours due to an environment of negligible vertical shear,\r\ndeep warm water, and abundant atmospheric moisture.  Because of\r\nthese conditions, the statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,\r\nand Florida State Superensemble) all show Blanca reaching major\r\nhurricane strength in the next 18-24 hours and then peaking at\r\ncategory 4 strength in about 48 hours.  Meanwhile, for reasons that\r\nare unclear at the moment, the HWRF and GFDL models keep Blanca\r\nessentially steady at category 1 strength for the next four days.\r\nSince there are no apparent reasons why the environment shouldn't\r\nsupport strengthening, the official forecast is a blend of the\r\nstatistical-dynamical models and is just a little higher than the\r\nprevious forecast during the first 48 hours.  By days 4 and 5,\r\nincreasing vertical shear and sub-optimal sea surface temperatures\r\nshould cause Blanca to weaken fairly quickly while it approaches\r\nthe Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nBlanca appears to have drifted southwestward during the past 12-18\r\nhours, and the hurricane is expected to move little during the next\r\n24 hours.  After that time, a deepening trough along the U.S. west\r\ncoast should cause Blanca to accelerate gradually and move north-\r\nnorthwestward between 36-120 hours.  With the exception of the GFDL\r\nand UKMET models, there is very little cross-track variability\r\namong the other reliable track models, but there are some\r\ndifferences in forward speed.  The GFS continues to be one of the\r\nfastest models, while the ECMWF is one of the slowest and doesn't\r\nshow Blanca reaching the Baja California peninsula during the\r\nfive-day forecast period.  Since the 00Z multi-model consensus\r\n(TVCE) is very close to the previous NHC forecast (OFCI), I elected\r\nnot to make any significant changes to the track forecast on this\r\ncycle.\r\n\r\nEven though Blanca's forecast track has not shifted eastward, there\r\nis the potential for the tropical-storm-force wind field to expand\r\nin that direction during the next few days.  Therefore, interests\r\nalong the west-central coast of mainland Mexico, especially in the\r\nstate of Jalisco, should monitor the progress of Blanca.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 12.8N 104.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 12.7N 104.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 13.4N 105.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 14.7N 105.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 17.5N 108.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 23.5N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-06-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that Blanca continues to rapidly\r\nstrengthen as a small eye has become apparent during the past\r\ncouple of hours.  This is consistent with earlier microwave data\r\nthat revealed a small pinhole eye, however there has been no recent\r\nmicrowave imagery to examine the current inner-core structure.\r\nDvorak Data T-numbers were 5.0 or 90 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but\r\nwith the recent satellite trends, the initial intensity is set at 95\r\nkt.  This is an increase in intensity of more than 40 kt over the\r\npast 24 hour period.\r\n\r\nRapid intensification is forecast to continue during the next 24\r\nhours while Blanca remains over very warm water and in a low shear\r\nenvironment.  The statistical-dynamical models (SHIPS, LGEM,\r\nand Florida State Superensemble) continue to show significant\r\nintensification during the next day or so, and all of these models\r\nbring Blanca to major hurricane status very soon. The official\r\nforecast is very close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance during the first\r\n2 to 3 days.  After 72 hours, increasing southerly wind shear and\r\ncooler waters are expected to cause fairly quick weakening as\r\nBlanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nBlanca has been nearly stationary overnight.  Little motion is\r\nexpected today, but a north-northwestward motion is forecast to\r\nbegin on Thursday when a mid-level ridge builds to the northeast\r\nof the hurricane.  Blanca is expected to accelerate north-\r\nnorthwestward in south-southeasterly flow between the aforementioned\r\nridge and a mid-level trough off the west coast of California.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but there\r\nremains some differences in the forward speed of the hurricane.  The\r\nGFS remains the fastest of the dynamical models, while the ECMWF is\r\nthe slowest.  The NHC forecast is again close to the previous\r\nadvisory and near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 12.6N 104.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 12.5N 104.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 13.7N 105.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 15.1N 106.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 18.1N 108.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 21.1N 109.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 24.0N 110.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-06-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 AM CDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca has rapidly intensified since yesterday and the initial\r\nintensity has been set at 115 kt. This is an increase in\r\nthe winds of 60 kt since yesterday at 1200 UTC. The initial\r\nintensity is based on objective and subjective T-numbers which have\r\nreached T6.0 on the Dvorak scale. The hurricane has developed a\r\ndistinct pinhole eye in both IR and visible images surrounded by\r\nvery deep convection.  There is an opportunity for Blanca to\r\nintensify further since the hurricane is located within an ideal\r\nenvironment of low shear and high ocean heat content as indicated by\r\nstatistical-dynamical models. In addition, the Rapid Intensification\r\nIndex remains extremely high, and this has been the case during the\r\npast 24 to 36 hours. Beyond 48 hours, the hurricane will encounter\r\nlower SSTs and a gradual weakening should begin.\r\n\r\nBlanca is currently trapped within weak steering currents and the\r\ncyclone has barely moved since yesterday and little motion is\r\nanticipated today. During the next 24 hours, the hurricane should\r\nbegin a northwestward track with some increase in forward speed as a\r\nhigh pressure system amplifies over the southwestern Unites States\r\nand Mexico, and a mid-level trough approaches from the northwest.\r\nThe NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and follows\r\nvery closely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF models.\r\nSince Blanca is a potential threat to Baja California in a few\r\ndays, a reconnaissance aircraft will likely investigate the\r\ncyclone on Friday.\r\n\r\nBlanca is the earliest second major hurricane to form in the\r\neastern North Pacific since reliable records began in 1971.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 12.4N 104.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 12.5N 104.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 13.1N 105.0W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 14.2N 105.9W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 15.7N 107.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 18.8N 109.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 21.5N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 24.3N 111.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-06-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nAlthough the convection is not as strong as earlier today, the eye\r\nis warmer and both objective and subjective T-numbers are\r\noscillating between 6.0 and 6.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,\r\nthe initial intensity is now 120 kt. Blanca has the opportunity to\r\nstrengthen further during the next 24 hours as the hurricane moves\r\nwithin an ideal environment of low shear and high ocean heat\r\ncontent. The intensity forecast continues to be based primarily on\r\nthe SHIPS and LGEM models. The HWRF and GFDL have consistently\r\nunder-forecast the intensity of Blanca and in fact, are forecasting\r\nrapid weakening during the next 24 hours. Beyond 48 hours, Blanca\r\nwill encounter lower SSTs, and a gradual weakening should begin.\r\n\r\nBlanca remains trapped within weak steering currents, and the\r\ncyclone has barely moved today. During the next 24 hours, the\r\nhurricane should begin a northwestward track with some increase in\r\nforward speed as a high pressure system over the southwestern United\r\nStates and Mexico amplifies, and a mid-level trough approaches the\r\ncoast of California.  Based on the latest consensus of the GFS and\r\nthe ECMWF models, the NHC forecast has been shifted slightly to the\r\nwest from the earlier one.  It appears that the high pressure over\r\nMexico will expand westward more than previously indicated,\r\nwhich has resulted in the small westward shift of the ECMWF/GFS\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 12.3N 104.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 12.4N 104.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 13.3N 105.4W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 14.5N 106.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 15.8N 107.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 109.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 22.0N 110.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 24.5N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-06-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca's convection has continued to decrease in intensity this\r\nevening, and the eye observed in infrared satellite imagery has been\r\nfilling.  Dvorak T-numbers have dropped across the board, but the\r\nintensity is being held at 120 kt based on a blend of current\r\nintensity numbers.  Microwave imagery does not show the development\r\nof concentric eyewalls, which often leads to disruptions in\r\nintensification, but an 0030Z SSMIS pass did indicate that some dry\r\nair may be wrapping into the circulation.  There's also the\r\npossibility that upwelling of cooler water could be an issue, but\r\nit's impossible to know that in real time.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has been drifting southwestward during the past 6-12\r\nhours.  Model guidance is in agreement that Blanca should begin\r\nto accelerate toward the northwest on Thursday in response to a\r\namplifying mid-level trough along the U.S. west coast and building\r\nhigh pressure over northern Mexico.  However, some of the track\r\nmodels (most notably the GFS, HWRF, and GFDL) have again shifted\r\nwestward a bit.  As a result, the updated NHC track forecast is\r\nslightly west of the previous forecast between 72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nDespite the hurricane's recent convective changes, the microwave\r\ndata showed that the eyewall remains intact, and low vertical shear\r\nand a generally moist environment should be conducive to support\r\nfurther strengthening during the next 36 hours.  In addition, once\r\nBlanca begins moving toward the northwest, it would escape any\r\npotential areas of upwelled cooler water.  The GFS, ECMWF, SHIPS,\r\nand LGEM all show Blanca peaking in intensity at 36 hours, and the\r\nupdated NHC intensity forecast follows suit by showing a maximum\r\nintensity right near the category 4/5 boundary Friday morning.\r\nAfter that, increasing shear, cooler water, and a drier, more stable\r\natmosphere should lead to rapid weakening, especially after 72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 12.0N 104.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 12.6N 105.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 13.7N 106.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 15.0N 107.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 16.4N 108.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 19.1N 110.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 21.9N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 24.9N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-06-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe small eye of Blanca has become less distinct in infrared\r\nsatellite images since yesterday afternoon.  Subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak T-numbers have subsequently decreased from their\r\npeak, so the initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt.  It is\r\nnot clear whether the slight decrease in wind speed is a result of\r\nan eyewall replacement cycle, drier air wrapping into the\r\ncirculation, or upwelling of cooler waters beneath the nearly\r\nstationary hurricane.  In any case, as the cyclone begins moving\r\nnorthwestward, low vertical wind shear and warmer water, along the\r\nforecast path of Blanca, favor strengthening during the next day or\r\nso.  The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance,\r\nbut shows a slightly lower peak intensity than the previous few\r\nadvisories.  After 48 hours, increasing shear and cool waters should\r\ninduce weakening.  A faster rate of weakening is expected after 72\r\nhours, when the hurricane is forecast to move over SSTs below\r\n26 deg C and into a drier and more stable air mass.\r\n\r\nBlanca has remained nearly stationary during the past few hours.\r\nThe model guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will\r\nbegin to move northwestward today while a mid-level ridge builds\r\nover northern Mexico.  Blanca should move northwestward to north-\r\nnorthwestward at a faster forward speed during the next few days\r\nbetween the aforementioned ridge and a mid-level trough extending\r\nsouthwestward from southern California.  The track guidance is\r\ntightly clustered, but there are still significant differences in\r\nthe forward speed of the hurricane.  As a result, the NHC track\r\nremains close to the model consensus, between the faster GFS, and\r\nthe slower ECMWF model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 11.9N 104.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 12.6N 105.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 13.9N 106.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 15.2N 107.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 16.7N 109.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 19.3N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 22.5N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 25.0N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-06-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015\r\n\r\nIt appears that the combination of upwelling and an eyewall\r\nreplacement cycle has resulted in significant weakening of\r\nBlanca during the past 18 hours or so. The eye is not as clear as\r\nit was yesterday, and the deep convection is no longer symmetric\r\naround what is left of the eye. Based on decreasing subjective and\r\nobjective T-numbers, the initial intensity has been adjusted down to\r\n95 kt at this time. However, as soon as Blanca moves out of the area\r\nwhere the upwelling has occurred in 12 to 24 hours, another round of\r\nstrengthening is anticipated, but not as much as indicated\r\nyesterday. The NHC forecast is consistent with the SHIPS intensity\r\nguidance, which still insists on forecasting restrengthening as the\r\ncyclone moves again over warm waters. Beyond 48 hours, increasing\r\nshear and cool waters should induce gradual weakening as Blanca\r\napproaches the Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Blanca has begun to move slowly toward\r\nthe northwest or 325 degrees at 3 knots. The subtropical ridge which\r\nhas been blocking the motion of the cyclone is forecast to shift\r\neastward by most of the global models while a trough approaches the\r\nwest coast of the United States. This steering pattern favors a\r\ngeneral northwest to north-northwest track during the next 5 days.\r\nThe NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows closely\r\nthe consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 12.3N 105.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 13.2N 105.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 14.5N 107.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 16.0N 108.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 17.5N 109.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 23.2N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 26.0N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-06-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has continued to weaken as it moves slowly over its\r\nown cold wake. Dvorak T-numbers are decreasing, and the current\r\nestimate of the initial intensity is 85 kt, which could be generous.\r\nMost of the deep convection has spread out and is concentrated in\r\nfew bands well removed from the center.  However, the hurricane\r\nstill has the chance to restrengthen as soon as it moves\r\naway from the area where the upwelling has occurred. The NHC\r\nforecast is again consistent with the SHIPS intensity guidance,\r\nand allows some intensification during the next 24 to 36 hours.\r\nThereafter, increasing shear and cool waters should induce gradual\r\nweakening as Blanca approaches the Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nBlanca is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 5 knots.\r\nThe subtropical ridge which has been blocking the motion of the\r\ncyclone is already moving eastward, and most likely the hurricane\r\nwill continue northwestward or north-northwestward with some\r\nincrease of forward speed around the periphery of the ridge. The NHC\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and is very close to the\r\nconsensus of the ECMWF and the GFS global models. However, it\r\nremains on the left side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 12.8N 105.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 13.7N 106.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 15.3N 107.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 16.7N 108.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 18.2N 109.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 21.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 24.0N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 26.8N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-06-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n1000 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015\r\n\r\nThe last available microwave data revealed that Blanca does not\r\nhave much inner core convection, and a band of deep convection was\r\nclosed off about 60 n mi from the center of circulation.  A large\r\neye is also noted in infrared satellite imagery, and it seems to\r\nhave a sharper edge than six hours ago.  A blend of Dvorak CI\r\nnumbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT supports keeping the\r\nmaximum winds at 85 kt for this advisory.  Vertical shear remains\r\nlow, as seen by expanding outflow in water vapor imagery, and sea\r\nsurface temperatures ahead of the hurricane will be sufficiently\r\nwarm for another 48 hours or so.  The difficulty in the intensity\r\nforecast is that Blanca's structure could limit significant\r\nstrengthening even with the favorable environment.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast allows for some modest strengthening during the\r\nnext 24-36 hours.  Fast weakening is expected after 48 hours due to\r\nincreasing shear, cooler water, and a drier, more stable atmosphere,\r\nand Blanca is likely to weaken to a tropical storm while it\r\napproaches the southern Baja California peninsula.  The official\r\nforecast is essentially a blend of the previous forecast and the\r\nintensity consensus (ICON).\r\n\r\nBlanca is accelerating toward the north-northwest, or 330/7 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to move northwestward or north-northwestward\r\nduring the entire forecast period while moving between a mid-level\r\ntrough west of the Baja California peninsula and high pressure over\r\nnorthern Mexico.  There is some model disagreement after 72 hours,\r\nwhich appears to be related to the westward extension of the ridge\r\nin each model.  For example, the GFS has a weaker ridge, allowing\r\nBlanca to move farther north and east than in the ECMWF.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous forecast\r\nduring the first 48 hours and then shifted slightly eastward from\r\n72-120 hours.  It has not been shifted as far to the east as the\r\nTVCE multi-model consensus, however.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help\r\nproduce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during\r\nthe next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 13.7N 105.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 16.2N 108.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 19.2N 109.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 22.5N 110.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 25.7N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 27.9N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-06-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 AM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective structure of Blanca has improved during the past few\r\nhours, with an increase in the coverage of cold cloud tops around a\r\nragged eye in geostationary imagery. The initial intensity is set to\r\n90 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB (77 kt) and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimates of around 100 kt.\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to\r\ninvestigate Blanca later today to provide more information on the\r\nintensity and structure of the cyclone. The initial 34-kt and 50-kt\r\nwind radii are based on data from ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes.\r\n\r\nThe environment of low shear and warm SSTs should support some\r\nadditional intensification during the next 24 hours or so. However,\r\ngiven the somewhat ragged appearance of the inner core on microwave\r\nimagery, only slight strengthening is shown in the official\r\nforecast, and even this is a bit above all of the guidance. By 36\r\nhours the shear increases while the cyclone begins to move over\r\ncooler SSTs and into a drier airmass. This combination of factors\r\nshould result in weakening, which should accelerate by 48 hours\r\nafter Blanca crosses the 26C SST isotherm.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/09. Blanca is forecast to move\r\ngenerally northwestward to north-northwestward during the next\r\nseveral days, as it is steered by a ridge centered over northern\r\nMexico and a trough west of the Baja California peninsula. There\r\ncontinues to be some spread in the guidance beyond 48 hours, likely\r\ndue to differences in the extent of mid-level ridging north of\r\nBlanca. The ECMWF has trended a bit to the right this cycle but is\r\nstill slower and west of the consensus, while the UKMET is even\r\nfarther to the west. The GFS, GEFS mean, HWRF and GFDL continue to\r\ncluster farther right and faster. The new NHC track forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one through 48 hours and has\r\nbeen shifted a little to the right after that time. The official\r\nforecast is close to TVCE multi-model consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help\r\nproduce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during\r\nthe next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 14.3N 106.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 15.4N 107.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 16.9N 108.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 18.4N 109.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 20.0N 110.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 23.7N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 26.5N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  10/0600Z 28.0N 113.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-06-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 AM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015\r\n\r\nThe intensity of Blanca has been oscillating around 85 and 90 kt\r\nsince yesterday. Latest satellite intensity estimates indicate\r\nthat there has been no change, and the winds are currently 85 kt.\r\nDeep convection is beginning to increase and is becoming better\r\norganized around the large circulation center. This could be an\r\nindication that some restrengthening is about to begin. The\r\nhurricane has about 24 hours to do so before the SSTs decrease,\r\nwhich should result in gradual weakening. In fact, Blanca is\r\nforecast to be a tropical storm as it moves near the southern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and become a remnant low over the high terrain\r\nof the peninsula. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is\r\nen route to investigate Blanca and will provide more information\r\nregarding the intensity and structure of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\r\n320 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is moving around the southwestern\r\nperiphery of a subtropical ridge over the United States and northern\r\nMexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will become steered by the\r\nsoutherly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and\r\nturn more toward the north. The dynamical guidance is now in much\r\nbetter agreement, bringing the cyclone near or over the southern\r\nBaja California peninsula beyond 48 hours or so. The NHC forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the very tight\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help\r\nproduce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during\r\nthe next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 15.1N 106.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 16.1N 107.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 17.6N 109.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 19.4N 109.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 27.0N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  10/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-06-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015\r\n\r\nAn Air Force reconnaissance plane reached the core of Blanca and\r\nmeasured with the SFMR a peak wind of 81 kt as it was flying across\r\nthe southeastern eyewall. These winds were confined to a very small\r\narea, and the surface winds were barely of hurricane force in\r\nthe remainder of the circulation. However, it measured 90 kt at\r\n700 mb as it was exiting the eye on the northwest side. On this\r\nbasis, the initial intensity has been set at 80 kt. Although the NHC\r\nintensity forecast does not show strengthening, Blanca has a small\r\nopportunity to do so before it moves over cooler waters in about a\r\nday. Thereafter, a gradual weakening should begin, and Blanca is\r\nexpected to be a tropical storm as it moves near or over the\r\nsouthern Baja California peninsula. It should then become a remnant\r\nlow when it encounters the high terrain. In fact, the statistical\r\nintensity guidance dissipates the cyclone beyond 72 hours.\r\n\r\nSatellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Blanca is moving\r\ntoward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is moving\r\naround the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the\r\nUnited States and northern Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will\r\nbecome steered by the southerly flow ahead of an approaching\r\nmid-latitude trough and turn more toward the north. The dynamical\r\nguidance continues to be in good agreement, bringing the cyclone\r\nnear or over the southern Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours\r\nor so. The NHC forecast follows very close the consensus of the GFS\r\nand the ECMWF and is basically in the middle of the very tight\r\ndynamical guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help\r\nproduce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during\r\nthe next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 15.3N 107.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 16.3N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 17.8N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 19.7N 110.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 21.5N 110.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 25.0N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 27.8N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-06-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca appears to have become a little better organized during the\r\npast few hours.  The eye does not look quite as ragged although it\r\nis becoming more cloud filled.  Deep convection is doing a better\r\njob of wrapping around the eye, but there is still some asymmetry\r\nwith very intense convection occurring within the southeastern\r\nquadrant.  As a result, Dvorak estimates have risen to T5.5/102 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB.  However, since the Hurricane\r\nHunters found Blanca's intensity to be on the low end of the earlier\r\nsatellite estimates, the maximum winds are conservatively raised to\r\n85 kt on this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/9 kt.  Mid-level\r\nhigh pressure over northern Mexico should keep Blanca moving\r\nnorthwestward in the short term, but the hurricane is forecast to\r\nturn north-northwestward in 24 hours due to a shortwave trough\r\napproaching from the west.  This north-northwestward motion should\r\nthen continue until dissipation, bringing Blanca near or over the\r\nsouthern Baja California peninsula in 48-72 hours.  The track\r\nguidance remains tightly clustered, with varying speeds being the\r\nmain issue, and the official track forecast is near the various\r\nmulti-model consensus models.\r\n\r\nIf Blanca is going to strengthen any further, it probably only has\r\nanother 24 hours to do so while vertical shear is low and sea\r\nsurface temperatures are over 26C.  After 24 hours, a more hostile\r\nenvironment should lead to fairly quick weakening, with Blanca\r\nbecoming a tropical storm between 36-48 hours while it approaches\r\nthe southern Baja California peninsula.  The cyclone is then\r\nexpected to become a tropical depression by day 3 and dissipate\r\nover the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula between days\r\n4 and 5.  The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM models and is not much different from the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, a tropical storm warning would likely\r\nbe required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula\r\nSaturday morning.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help\r\nproduce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during\r\nthe next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 16.1N 108.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 17.1N 109.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 20.1N 110.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 21.9N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 25.5N 112.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 28.4N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-06-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca has strengthened tonight, with infrared imagery showing a\r\nbetter defined eye surrounded by a symmetric convective ring with\r\ncloud top temperatures colder than -70C.  The 0600Z Dvorak estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB were both T6.0/115 kt, and the initial intensity\r\nhas been conservatively set to 105 kt for this advisory, assuming\r\nthat the wind field has not yet caught up to the rapidly improving\r\nsatellite presentation.  The environment appears conducive for\r\nBlanca to at least maintain its intensity during the next 12 to 18\r\nhours, with weakening expected to begin by 24 hours as the cyclone\r\nreaches cooler waters.  A quicker rate of weakening is forecast\r\nafter 24 hours due to moderate shear and even cooler SSTs.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast has been adjusted upward, especially in the first\r\n36 hours, to account for the higher initial intensity.  This results\r\nin the official forecast now showing Blanca weakening to just below\r\nhurricane intensity in 48 hours as it approaches the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  After landfall, Blanca should weaken to a depression and\r\nthen dissipate over the high terrain of the peninsula in about 4\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/10.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains unchanged, as Blanca should continue moving northwestward\r\ntoday and then turn north-northwestward under the influence of a\r\nmid-level high centered over northern Mexico and Texas and an\r\napproaching trough to the west of the hurricane.  The guidance\r\nremains in good agreement on this scenario, and only minor\r\nadjustments were made to the NHC track forecast, which is near the\r\nlatest multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nBased on the new NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has issued\r\na tropical storm warning for the southern portion of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, a hurricane watch from Cabo San Lucas to\r\nSanta Fe, and tropical storm watches farther north.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help\r\nproduce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during\r\nthe next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 16.9N 108.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 17.8N 109.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 19.3N 110.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 21.1N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 26.8N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-06-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca has made a significant comeback since yesterday. Satellite\r\nimages show a much better organized cloud pattern with a distinct\r\neye surrounded by very deep convection. The outflow is also well\r\nestablished in all quadrants. The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB indicate that the winds are up to 115 kt, making Blanca a\r\ncategory 4 hurricane again on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane wind\r\nscale. A weakening trend should begin tonight or early Sunday when\r\nthe hurricane encounters cool waters around 20 degrees North.\r\nThe weakening should occur even faster as the cyclone approaches\r\nthe west coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. The effect\r\nof the high terrain and increasing shear will cause the cyclone\r\nto become a remnant low in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that Blanca is moving toward the northwest\r\nor 325 degrees at 9 kt. The steering controlling the motion of\r\nof Blanca remains unchanged. The hurricane is expected to continue\r\ntoward the northwest and then north-northwestward around the\r\nperiphery of mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and\r\nsouthwestern Texas. The southerly flow ahead of an approaching\r\ntrough will also contribute to the northward motion of Blanca. The\r\nNHC forecast follows the track guidance which, in fact, continues to\r\nbe in very good agreement, and it gives more weight to the consensus\r\nof the GFS and the ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help\r\nproduce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during\r\nthe next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 17.7N 109.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 18.8N 110.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 20.5N 110.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 22.5N 111.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 24.5N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 28.5N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-06-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 PM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015\r\n\r\nLate this morning, satellite imagery began to show some decrease in\r\nthe deep convection surrounding the eye, and the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates suggest that the winds are probably down to 105 kt.\r\nLimited data from the reconnaissance plane, which had to return to\r\nbase, also indicate that the initial intensity is 105 kt. A portion\r\nof the circulation is already reaching cooler waters, and the NHC\r\nforecast calls for weakening.  This process should occur even faster\r\nas the cyclone approaches the west coast of the southern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula. The effect of the high terrain and increasing\r\nshear will cause the cyclone to become a remnant low in about 3 days\r\nor earlier. This is consistent with the intensity guidance which\r\nweakens the cyclone fast.\r\n\r\nBlanca is moving on a steady northwestward track or 320 degrees at 9\r\nkt. The steering currents controlling the motion of Blanca remain\r\nunchanged. The hurricane is expected to turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest tonight around the periphery of a mid-level high\r\ncentered over northern Mexico and southwestern Texas. The southerly\r\nflow ahead of an approaching trough will also contribute to the\r\nnorthward motion of Blanca. There is high confidence in the track\r\nforecast since the dynamical guidance has been consistently in very\r\ngood agreement. The NHC forecast is basically in the middle of the\r\ntight guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 18.3N 109.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 19.5N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 21.5N 111.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 23.8N 111.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 26.0N 112.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 29.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":26,"Date":"2015-06-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 PM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca's eye remains well defined, but the surrounding cloud-top\r\ntemperatures have continued to warm.  There has also been some\r\nerosion of the convective canopy on the southeastern side of the\r\nhurricane, suggesting that vertical shear is increasing.  Despite\r\nthe slightly worse satellite presentation, Dvorak CI numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB are the same as six hours ago, which supports\r\nmaintaining an initial intensity of 105 kt.  Data T-numbers are\r\ndecreasing, however, and Blanca will likely begin weakening soon due\r\nto the increasing shear and cooler sea surface temperatures.  The\r\nintensity models all weaken Blanca, but they do so at different\r\nrates.  The SHIPS model appears to weaken the cyclone a little too\r\nfast, showing dissipation in 48 hours.  On the other hand, the\r\nGFS--which seems to have been handling Blanca's intensity trends\r\nquite well--shows a much slower rate of weakening.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is therefore a little higher than the intensity\r\nconsensus (IVCN) between 12-48 hours, lying closest to the LGEM.\r\nBlanca should degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours and then\r\ndissipate by 96 hours, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nBlanca has turned north-northwestward, or 330 degrees at 9 kt.\r\nThis motion is expected to continue until dissipation as Blanca\r\nmoves between a mid-level high centered over northern Mexico and a\r\ndeep-layer trough extending from the western U.S. southwestward\r\nover the Pacific.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered,\r\nwith only a slight westward shift noted at 48 hours.  The updated\r\nNHC track forecast is just a little bit slower than the previous\r\nforecast in order to fall closer to the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe updated forecast does not require any changes to the watches or\r\nwarnings.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 19.2N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 20.4N 110.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 22.4N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 24.6N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 26.4N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 29.9N 114.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":27,"Date":"2015-06-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015\r\n\r\nRecent satellite imagery shows that cloud pattern of Blanca becoming\r\nless organized.  The eye has shrunk and become less distinct while\r\nthe convection has eroded in the eastern semicircle due to about 20\r\nkt of southeasterly shear.  Recent microwave imagery also suggests\r\nthat some tilt is developing between the low and mid-level\r\ncirculations.  The initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt based on a\r\nblend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\nThe pace of weakening should accelerate as the center of Blanca\r\ncrosses the 26 deg C isotherm later today, and the NHC forecast\r\nfollows this trend.  The official forecast continues to be a little\r\nhigher than the IVCN consensus aid and is closest to the LGEM.  The\r\nlow-level circulation of Blanca is expected to dissipate by 72 hours\r\nafter interacting with the topography of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 335/10, and this general motion is\r\nexpected to continue until the cyclone dissipates as Blanca moves\r\nbetween a mid-level anticyclone centered over northern Mexico and a\r\ntrough that extends from the western U.S. southwestward over the\r\nadjacent Pacific.  The track model guidance is in good agreement,\r\nand the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous\r\none and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to\r\naffect portions of the southwestern United States later this week.\r\nFor more information, please see products from your local National\r\nWeather Service office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 19.8N 110.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 21.2N 111.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 23.6N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 25.8N 112.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 27.7N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blanca","Adv":28,"Date":"2015-06-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 AM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Blanca continues to deteriorate, with\r\nthe eye no longer visible and the coverage and intensity of deep\r\nconvection diminishing.  The current intensity is set at 80 kt which\r\nis a blend of Dvorak T and Current Intensity numbers.  An Air Force\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft should provide a good estimate of the\r\nintensity in a few hours.  Under the influence of progressively\r\ncooler sea surface temperatures, southerly vertical shear, and the\r\nterrain of the Baja California peninsula, the cyclone should\r\ncontinue to weaken quickly.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the intensity model consensus and calls for the system to\r\nweaken to a tropical storm within 12 to 24 hours.  Blanca will\r\nlikely degenerate to a remnant low within a couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate, 340/10 kt, is about the same as in the\r\nprevious advisory.  Blanca should continue to move along the western\r\nperiphery of a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is very similar to the previous one and\r\nalso very close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to\r\naffect portions of the southwestern United States later this week.\r\nFor more information, please see products from your local National\r\nWeather Service office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 20.5N 111.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 22.2N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 24.5N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 26.7N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 28.7N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":29,"Date":"2015-06-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015\r\n\r\nObservations from an Air Force Reserve Unit reconnaissance aircraft\r\nindicate that Blanca has weakened quickly today.  The peak\r\nSFMR-observed surface winds were 57 kt over the northeast quadrant.\r\nOn this basis, Blanca is being downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm\r\nfor this advisory.  Continued weakening is likely as the system will\r\nbe moving over progressively cooler waters with fairly strong\r\nsoutherly to southwesterly shear, and interacting with the terrain\r\nof the Baja California peninsula.  The official wind speed forecast\r\nis in good agreement with the latest intensity model consensus.\r\nBlanca should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 to 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe motion, 345/8 kt, is a bit slower than previous estimates.\r\nOtherwise there is little change to the steering scenario.  Blanca\r\nor its remnant should continue to move along the western periphery\r\nof a mid- to low-level ridge until dissipation.  The official track\r\nforecast is a blend of the ECMWF and medium-depth BAM tracks to\r\naccount for the expected shallowness of the cyclone, and is a little\r\nslower than the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is expected to affect portions of\r\nthe southwestern United States in a couple of days.  For more\r\ninformation, please see products from your local National Weather\r\nService office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 21.3N 111.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 23.0N 111.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 25.3N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 27.5N 113.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 30.0N 113.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":30,"Date":"2015-06-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 PM MDT SUN JUN 07 2015\r\n\r\nVertical shear and cold water are taking their toll on Blanca,\r\nwith recent microwave data indicating that the low-level center is\r\nseparating from the mid-level rotation noted in geostationary\r\nsatellite images.  Maximum winds are now estimated to be 55 kt\r\nbased on a blend of Dvorak estimates of T3.5/4.5 from TAFB and\r\nT3.0/4.0 from SAB.  Continued shear, even colder water, and the\r\nterrain of the Baja California peninsula should lead to further\r\nweakening, and Blanca is forecast to become a tropical depression\r\nwithin 24 hours and dissipate by 48 hours.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is very close to the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 345/9 kt.  Blanca is expected to continue\r\nmoving north-northwestward between a mid-level high centered over\r\nnorthern Mexico and a deep-layer low located southwest of\r\nCalifornia.  As has been the case for days, there are still\r\nsome speed differences among the models, with the GFS being one of\r\nthe faster models.  The updated NHC track forecast is very close to\r\nthe ECMWF and the multi-model consensus (TVCE), which are\r\nessentially identical through 24 hours.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca is expected to affect portions of\r\nthe southwestern United States in a couple of days.  For more\r\ninformation, please see products from your local National Weather\r\nService office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 22.3N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 24.3N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 26.7N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 29.1N 113.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":31,"Date":"2015-06-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 AM MDT MON JUN 08 2015\r\n\r\nThe aerial coverage of Blanca's deep convection is decreasing due to\r\ncold waters and southerly shear of 15 to 20 kt.  The shear is also\r\nresulting in an increasing separation between the low- and mid-level\r\ncirculations.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 45 kt based\r\non a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB.\r\nThe above-mentioned negative factors and land interaction should\r\nlead to the demise of Blanca in the next day or so, with the cyclone\r\nforecast to become a depression in 24 hours and dissipate by 36\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe decoupling of the low-level circulation has increased the\r\nuncertainty in the center location, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis a somewhat uncertain 345/13.  A general north-northwestward\r\nmotion is expected to continue until Blanca dissipates as the\r\ncyclone moves between a mid-level high to the east and a deep-layer\r\nlow to the west.  The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of\r\nthe previous one and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to\r\nbegin affecting portions of the southwestern United States on\r\nTuesday.  For more information, please see products from your local\r\nNational Weather Service office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 23.8N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 25.5N 112.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 27.7N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blanca","Adv":32,"Date":"2015-06-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 AM MDT MON JUN 08 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images and surface observations indicate that Blanca made\r\nlandfall near Puerto Cortes on Isla Santa Margarita around 1200\r\nUTC with an estimated landfall intensity of 40 kt.  Since that time,\r\nsome weakening has likely occurred and the current intensity is\r\nreduced to 35 kt.  Blanca should continue to weaken over the next\r\nday or so as it interacts with the terrain of the Baja California\r\npeninsula and continues to be influenced by strong shear.  The\r\nsystem should become a tropical depression by this evening, and\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is close to the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe motion estimate remains at 345/13 kt.  This general motion,\r\nbetween a low- to mid-level high to the east of Blanca and a\r\nmid-level low to the west, is likely to continue until the cyclone\r\ndissipates.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous\r\none, and remains close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to\r\nbegin affecting portions of the southwestern United States\r\ntoday.  For more information, please see products from your\r\nlocal National Weather Service office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 25.1N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 26.7N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 28.5N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 36H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":33,"Date":"2015-06-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 PM MDT MON JUN 08 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca's cloud pattern continues to lose organization, and deep\r\nconvection is diminishing.  Assuming a continued spin down of the\r\ncirculation during the day, the current intensity is set at 30 kt.\r\nThis is also consistent with the Dvorak intensity estimate from\r\nUW-CIMSS.  Continued weakening should occur due to shear and\r\ninteraction with the Baja California peninsula, and Blanca is\r\nexpected to become a remnant low in about 12 hours.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a little faster, or 340/15 kt.  Over the next\r\nday or so, Blanca or its remnants should move north-northwestward to\r\nnorthward in the flow between a high to its east and a low to its\r\nwest.  The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to\r\naffect portions of the southwestern United States today and\r\nTuesday.  For more information, please see products from your\r\nlocal National Weather Service office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 26.7N 113.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 28.3N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 30.2N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 32.0N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blanca","Adv":34,"Date":"2015-06-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n900 PM MDT MON JUN 08 2015\r\n\r\nBlanca is currently a large swirl of low and mid-level clouds\r\ncentered over the central portion of the Baja California Peninsula,\r\nwith the remaining deep convection located well to the north of the\r\ncenter. The initial intensity is reduced to 25 kt based mainly on\r\ncontinuity from the previous advisory.  The cyclone should\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low pressure area in 12 hours or less,\r\nwith the remnant low forecast to dissipate completely between 24\r\nand 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 335/15.  Over the next day or so, Blanca or\r\nits remnants should move north-northwestward to northward in the\r\nflow between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid and\r\nupper-level low to its west.  The new forecast track is nudged a\r\nlittle to the east of the previous track based on a slight eastward\r\nshift in the model consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Blanca and its remnants is expected to\r\naffect portions of the southwestern United States tonight and\r\nTuesday.  For more information, please see products from your\r\nlocal National Weather Service office.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 27.8N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 29.3N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 31.1N 114.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 36H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Blanca","Adv":35,"Date":"2015-06-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP022015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022015\r\n300 AM MDT TUE JUN 09 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of Blanca is very difficult to locate. The circulation is\r\nbecoming rapidly disrupted by the effect of the high terrain, and\r\nthe system has degenerated into a remnant low.  Satellite and radar\r\nindicate that only a few patches of showers remain associated with\r\nthe low. A general northward motion about 10 kt should continue\r\nuntil dissipation later today.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with the remnants of Blanca is expected to\r\naffect portions of the southwestern United States tonight and\r\nTuesday.  For more information, please see products from your\r\nlocal National Weather Service office.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\r\nBlanca.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 29.0N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 30.0N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 24H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-06-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated\r\nwith the low pressure system located southwest of the Gulf of\r\nTehuantepec has become sufficiently well organized to designate the\r\nformation of a tropical depression.  Therefore, advisories are\r\nbeing initiated at this time.  The cyclone should remain in an\r\nenvironment of low vertical shear and over warm waters for the next\r\nseveral days, so steady strengthening seems to be a good bet.  The\r\nofficial wind speed forecast is generally above the intensity model\r\nconsensus.  There is significant uncertainty in the longer range\r\nintensity forecast, depending on how much the system interacts with\r\nland.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes have had a fair amount of scatter, and my best\r\nestimate of the initial motion is 315/8 kt.  During the next 72\r\nhours, the cyclone is likely to respond to a mid-level weakness over\r\nthe Gulf of Mexico by turning northward and north-northeastward.\r\nLater in the forecast period, a mid-level ridge to the northwest is\r\nexpected to cause the system to turn toward the west-northwest and\r\nmove parallel the coast.  The GFS model takes the system close to\r\nthe coast in 72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFDL model tracks keep the\r\ncyclone offshore and are much farther to the west than the GFS\r\nsolution.  As a compromise, the official track forecast is close\r\nto the model consensus TVCN albeit not as far west as TVCN by 120\r\nhours.  Given the large divergence of the model tracks, this is a\r\nlow confidence forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 12.4N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 13.0N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 13.4N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 14.0N  99.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 14.5N  99.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 15.5N  99.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 16.5N 100.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-06-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression\r\nThree-E is gradually becoming better organized. However, recent\r\nmicrowave imagery and data from the Rapidscat scatterometer on the\r\nInternational Space Station suggest that the low-level circulation\r\nis somewhat disorganized, being elongated from west-northwest to\r\neast-southeast and possibly having multiple vorticity centers.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 and 30 kt\r\nrespectively. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on these\r\nestimates and a lack of reliable tropical-storm wind reports from\r\nthe scatterometer.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/9.  The depression\r\nis currently being steered by a mid-level ridge over Mexico.  This\r\nfeature is forecast to weaken during the next 72 hours as a large\r\nmid to upper-level trough forms over the Gulf of Mexico.  This\r\nshould cause the cyclone to turn toward the north and north-\r\nnortheast.  While the track guidance generally agrees with this\r\nscenario, there are some important differences in the models. The\r\nCanadian, NAVGEM, and UKMET models show a fast enough forward motion\r\nthat the cyclone makes landfall in southern Mexico.  The latest GFS\r\nrun also takes the system close to the coast, but keeps it offshore\r\nat 72 hours.  The ECMWF keeps the system farther offshore during\r\nthis time.  After 72 hours, the ridge over Mexico is forecast to\r\nbuild, which should cause the tropical cyclone to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico if it is still\r\noffshore.  The new forecast track is west of the previous track\r\nbased on the initial position and motion, and as a result it is\r\nfarther from the coast of Mexico.  However, there is low confidence\r\nin how close the center will actually get to the coast.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is expected to be in an environment of warm sea surface\r\ntemperatures and light vertical wind shear during the next 48 hours,\r\nwhich favors steady intensification.  The intensity forecast calls\r\nfor the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours or less and a\r\nhurricane in about 48 hours.  After that, a combination of northerly\r\nshear and possible land interaction suggests that a slower rate of\r\nintensification is likely.  The new intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe intensity consensus during the first 48 hours and in best\r\nagreement with the LGEM model after that time.  An alternative\r\nforecast scenario is that the cyclone makes landfall in southern\r\nMexico, which would lead to rapid dissipation over the mountains of\r\nthat area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 12.9N  99.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 13.2N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 13.7N 100.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 14.2N 100.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 14.7N  99.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 15.5N  99.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 16.5N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-06-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015\r\n\r\n\r\nThe depression does not appear to be strengthening yet.  The\r\ncyclone has a broad circulation with some evidence of multiple\r\ncenters.  A pair of ASCAT passes at 0330 and 0415 UTC showed\r\nmaximum winds in the 25-30 kt range.  Given that the convective\r\npattern has not changed much since the time of the ASCAT data, the\r\ninitial wind speed is kept at 30 kt.  This intensity estimate is a\r\nlittle lower than the Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT which are all T2.5/35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 305/7.  The system is\r\nexpected to slow down and turn northward later today or tonight\r\nwhen a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico cuts off\r\nand drifts westward.  The low aloft is expected to weaken this\r\nweekend, which should allow ridging to become better established to\r\nthe north of the tropical cyclone.  This pattern change should\r\ncause the system to turn west-northwestward and increase in\r\nforward speed in a few days.  Although a fair amount of spread still\r\nexists in the model solutions, they have come into better agreement\r\ncompared to previous cycles.  In fact, most of the guidance has\r\nshifted south and west away from the coast of southern Mexico, and\r\nthe official track forecast follows that trend.\r\n\r\nThe depression is expected to remain over warm water and in a moist\r\nairmass for the next several days.  These conditions support\r\nsteady intensification.  A slightly inhibiting factor is vertical\r\nwind shear, which is forecast by the SHIPS model to be around 15\r\nkt for the next few days.  The official intensity forecast is just\r\nan update of the previous one and shows gradual intensification\r\nthrough the period.  This forecast lies at the high end of the\r\nguidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS model.  It should be\r\nnoted that the future intensity of the system is dependent on how\r\nmuch it interacts with land, so if the system gets closer to the\r\ncoast than predicted, the longer range part of the forecast could be\r\ntoo high.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 13.1N 100.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 14.1N 100.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 14.4N 100.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 14.7N 100.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 15.5N 100.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 16.5N 103.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 17.5N 105.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-06-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015\r\n\r\nThe organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased,\r\nwith a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way\r\naround the system's center.  The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt\r\nbased upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with\r\nconsideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently\r\na bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer\r\nwinds overnight.  Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third\r\ntropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific.\r\n\r\nEven though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely\r\nto continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of\r\nnortheasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three\r\ndays.  At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as\r\nCarlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge.\r\nHowever, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude\r\nsubstantial intensification.  Given that Carlos' track now is\r\nprojected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least\r\nthe short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect\r\nthe system.  The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend\r\nof the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly\r\nlower than that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nCarlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt.  Shortly, a\r\ndeveloping trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering\r\npattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the\r\nnext couple of days.  In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge\r\nwill become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it\r\nnorthwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed,\r\nparalleling the southwestern Mexican coast.  The official track\r\nprediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and\r\nis just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015\r\n\r\nA 1602 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed that Carlos has strengthened somewhat\r\nduring the day.  Based on the scatterometer data, the intensity is\r\nset to 45 kt.  This is in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate\r\nfrom TAFB.  The tropical storm is currently experiencing moderate\r\nnortheasterly shear, and convection is limited to a large band\r\nstretching around the western and southern portions of the\r\ncirculation.  Cloud tops have warmed a little during the day, though\r\na recent burst of convection, located just southwest of the center,\r\nsuggests that this is only a temporary trend.  The ECMWF and GFS\r\nforecast that the moderate shear will persist for the next day or\r\ntwo.  After that, a more favorable upper-level wind environment and\r\nwarm SSTs will likely support more strengthening.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory,\r\nand is near the intensity consensus, excluding the GFDL which shows\r\nsignificant land interaction and is considered an outlier.\r\n\r\nCarlos has been moving very slowly north-northwestward at about 2 kt\r\nfor the past several hours.  The motion is more certain now since\r\nthe ASCAT pass also provided an excellent center fix.  No\r\nsignificant changes have been made to the track forecast.  Carlos\r\nwill remain embedded within a weak steering pattern for the next 48\r\nhours, before a deep-layer ridge extending from the Gulf of Mexico\r\nto northwestern Mexico strengthens.  This should force the cyclone\r\nto begin moving west-northwestward, parallel to the coast of Mexico,\r\nat a slightly faster pace.  The forecast track is near the multi-\r\nmodel consensus, with a little extra weight given to the GFS and\r\nECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii were adjusted based on the extremely useful\r\n1602 UTC ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 14.1N 100.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 14.3N 100.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 14.6N 100.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 14.9N 100.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 15.1N 101.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 15.7N 102.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 17.0N 105.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 18.5N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Zelinsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-06-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has expanded near the center of Carlos this\r\nevening, but the overall appearance of the cloud pattern has not\r\nchanged much.  The initial intensity has been nudged up to 50 kt, a\r\nlittle below the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The\r\nintensity forecast reasoning has not changed, with some moderate\r\nshear expected to persist for the next couple of days.  As a result,\r\nonly gradual intensification is forecast during this time, but\r\nCarlos should still reach hurricane strength in a day or so.  Some\r\nadditional strengthening is forecast through 72 hours, with a little\r\nweakening shown late in the period as the cyclone begins to move\r\nover somewhat cooler waters.  The intensity guidance has trended a\r\nbit downward this cycle, but the NHC forecast is largely an update\r\nof the previous one and close to a consensus of the SHIPS, LGEM,\r\nand HWRF. The GFDL is still considered an outlier due to land\r\ninteraction not shown in the official track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 345/02, as Carlos has wobbled a bit\r\nnorth-northwestward this evening based on the latest geostationary\r\nand microwave satellite fixes.  A slow north-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion is expected during the next 36 to 48 hours\r\nwhile the steering currents remain weak.  After that time, a deep-\r\nlayer ridge will amplify over the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern\r\nMexico, which should result in Carlos moving more steadily west-\r\nnorthwestward after 48 hours, followed by a turn toward the\r\nnorthwest by day 5.  While the NHC forecast still keeps the center\r\nof Carlos offshore of the coast of southern Mexico, the forecast\r\ntrack has been nudged a little to the right through 48 hours and\r\nlies between the GFS, UKMET, and GEFS mean on the left and the ECMWF\r\nand HWRF on the right.  Later in the forecast, the NHC track is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one and is close to a blend of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nThe government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch from\r\nAcapulco and Zihuatanejo since the updated forecast brings tropical\r\nstorm force winds very close to the coast in 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 14.5N 100.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 14.8N 100.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 15.0N 100.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 15.2N 101.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 15.4N 101.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 17.5N 105.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 19.2N 107.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-06-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015\r\n\r\nCarlos has changed little in strength during the last several\r\nhours.  Infrared images and a recent GPM microwave image indicate\r\nthat the center is embedded within the deep convection. The latest\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT were\r\nunchanged from earlier, and support an intensity of 50 kt.\r\nNortheasterly shear of about 15 kt is expected to persist\r\nfor another day or two, so only gradual intensification is\r\npredicted.  Some weakening is forecast by the end of the period when\r\nCarlos is expected to approach a drier airmass and cooler sea\r\nsurface temperatures.  Little change was made to the previous\r\nintensity forecast, and it lies near the high end of the model\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is currently embedded in very weak steering\r\ncurrents and has generally been drifting northwestward during the\r\npast 6 hours or so.  The steering currents are expected to remain\r\nweak for another day or so, therefore, Carlos will likely continue\r\nto meander during that time.  Beyond 48 hours, mid-level ridging is\r\nexpected to build to the north of the storm resulting in a\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward motion at a faster forward\r\nspeed. This forecast will keep the core of Carlos on a track\r\nparallel to the coast of Mexico.  The model guidance has changed\r\nlittle this cycle. The official track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and is also close to the model consensus aids.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 14.7N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-06-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015\r\n\r\nCarlos continues to be affected by northeasterly shear with the\r\ncenter on the north side of the convection.  While an overnight\r\nmicrowave pass showed some increase in organization of the inner\r\ncore, radar from Acapulco and the latest satellite images\r\nsuggest that the system has become less organized since then.\r\nDvorak estimates are about the same as six hours ago, so the initial\r\nwind speed will remain 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe storm is essentially stationary, caught in an area of light\r\nsteering between a distant mid-level trough over the western Gulf of\r\nMexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico.  Little net motion is\r\nexpected until late this weekend, when the ridge builds over Mexico.\r\n This pattern change should cause Carlos to move toward the\r\nwest-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early\r\nnext week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the\r\nsouthwestern United States is forecast to dig into northwestern\r\nMexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the\r\nnorthwest by Tuesday.  The latest NHC forecast is very similar to\r\nthe previous one through three days, and then is adjusted a bit to\r\nthe east to reflect the latest consensus guidance.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is tricky because there are a lot of\r\ncompeting factors.  During the next day or two, the\r\nnortheasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a gradual\r\nintensification of Carlos is anticipated.  Thereafter, although the\r\nshear is expected to become light, warm upper-level temperatures and\r\ndrier air in the mid-levels could keep Carlos from significantly\r\nstrengthening.  By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere\r\nshould help to weaken Carlos.  The latest intensity guidance has\r\ncome down from the last cycle, which makes some sense given the\r\nlimiting factors above.  The official NHC wind speed prediction is\r\nreduced from the previous one, although it remains on the high side\r\nof the guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 14.7N 100.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 14.8N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 14.9N 100.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 15.4N 101.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 15.9N 102.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 17.0N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 18.7N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-06-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015\r\n\r\n\r\nCarlos looks a little better organized this afternoon with the\r\ncenter now fully embedded within a more symmetric and deeper central\r\ndense overcast. Microwave images show some evidence of inner core\r\nfeatures, but they remain fragmented.  Since Dvorak estimates are\r\nunchanged, the initial intensity will remain 50 kt, but this could\r\nbe a bit conservative based on recent trends.\r\n\r\nThe storm continues to be stationary within an area of light\r\nsteering between a mid-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico\r\nand a ridge over northwestern Mexico.  The ridge is forecast to\r\nbuild over central Mexico on Sunday, which should then cause Carlos\r\nto move toward the west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of\r\nMexico, into early next week at an increasing forward speed. A\r\ntrough over the southwestern United States should move into\r\nnorthwestern Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn\r\ntoward the northwest by Tuesday.  Model guidance remains in\r\nrelatively good agreement on this scenario, and the latest NHC\r\nforecast is close to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast continues to be challenging.  During the next\r\nday or so, northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a\r\nslight intensification of Carlos is anticipated.  Thereafter,\r\nalthough the shear is expected to become light, a combination of\r\nwarm upper-level temperatures, drier air aloft, and possible land\r\ninteraction could help keep Carlos from strengthening significantly.\r\nBy day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere should help to\r\nweaken Carlos.  Although most of the intensity guidance no longer\r\ncalls for Carlos to become a hurricane, this guidance has had a\r\nnoted low bias this season, and the GFS still shows quite a bit of\r\nintensificaton.  Thus, I am inclined to stay at the upper edge of\r\nthe guidance, and near the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 14.7N 100.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 14.9N 100.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 15.2N 100.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 15.6N 101.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 16.1N 102.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 17.3N 104.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 19.5N 106.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 22.0N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-06-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015\r\n\r\nCarlos has changed little in organization since the last advisory.\r\nThe deep convection in satellite imagery is asymmetric, with the\r\ncoldest cloud tops currently east of the center.  In addition,\r\ndata from the Mexican radar at Acapulco shows that the eyewall is\r\nhaving trouble becoming a closed ring around the 15-20 n mi wide\r\neye. These conditions are likely due to continued moderate\r\nnortheasterly vertical wind shear and perhaps some dry air\r\nentrainment.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain\r\n55 kt and 45 kt respectively, so the initial intensity remains 50\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe center of Carlos has made an eastward turn during the past\r\nseveral hours, and the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 045/2.\r\n Water vapor imagery shows a large mid to upper-level trough over\r\nthe Gulf of Mexico and eastern Mexico, and this may be the cause of\r\nthe current motion.  The large-scale models forecast a ridge to\r\nbuild over Mexico over the weekend, which should then cause Carlos\r\nto move west-northwestward nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico.\r\nEarly next week, a mid to upper-level trough over the southwestern\r\nUnited States is forecast to move into northwestern Mexico, which\r\ncould cause Carlos to turn northwestward toward the Gulf of\r\nCalifornia or the Baja California Peninsula by Tuesday.  The new\r\nforecast track is similar to but adjusted somewhat north of the\r\nprevious one, and it brings the center of Carlos a little closer\r\nto the coast of mainland Mexico.  It should be noted that any motion\r\nto the right of the forecast track could bring the center onshore in\r\nmainland Mexico as forecast by the latest GFS run.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale models suggest the current shear should abate after\r\n12-24 hours, which in theory should allow Carlos to strengthen.\r\nHowever, most of the intensity guidance forecasts only slow\r\nstrengthening during the next 72 hours, which may be due to a\r\ncombination of drier air aloft and possible land interaction.  After\r\n72 hours, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere are expected to\r\ncause Carlos to weaken.  The new intensity forecast is unchanged\r\nfrom the previous one, and it remains at the upper end of the\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 14.8N 100.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 15.0N 100.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 15.4N 100.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 15.8N 101.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 16.3N 102.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 17.5N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 19.5N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 22.0N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-06-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall structure of the cloud pattern has changed very little\r\nduring the past several hours. One can still observe an intermittent\r\nring of convection associated with the center of the cyclone on the\r\nAcapulco radar. However, Dvorak T-numbers and data from a recent\r\nASCAT pass suggest that the winds are now up to 55 kt. The moderate\r\nnortheasterly shear which is affecting the storm should begin to\r\ndecrease in about 24 hours, allowing some strengthening. Although\r\nCarlos is forecast to be over relatively warm waters in 72 hours,\r\nbut the shear will likely increase again. Consequently, most of the\r\nguidance weaken the cyclone after that time, and this is reflected\r\nin the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nCarlos has been meandering for the past 24 hours or so, but it\r\nappears that it now moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at\r\n2 kt.  Most of the global guidance show a ridge building over\r\nMexico, and this pattern should steer Carlos slowly toward the\r\nnorthwest or west-northwest nearly parallel to the coast of\r\nMexico during the next 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the\r\nridge over the Baja California peninsula should allow Carlos to\r\nmove on a more north-northwesterly track. The NHC forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope. It is, however, a little bit to the left of the GFS/ECMWF\r\nconsensus beyond 72 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 14.8N 100.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 15.1N 100.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 17.8N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-06-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that Carlos has strengthened with a ragged\r\neye becoming apparent on the latest visible imagery.  In addition,\r\nradar data from Acapulco show that an eyewall has become\r\nestablished, although it is still open on the north side.  Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB/SAB are 65 kt, so this will be the initial\r\nintensity.\r\n\r\nAfter an eastward jog overnight, Carlos appears to have resumed a\r\nnorthwestward drift.  For the rest of the weekend, a building ridge\r\nover Mexico is expected to steer Carlos generally to the\r\nwest-northwest.  Thereafter, a mid-level trough near the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula should cause Carlos to turn northwestward.\r\nHowever, the hurricane is now farther to the east than expected\r\nyesterday, which has moved the track closer to the southwestern\r\ncoast of Mexico.  Track guidance has been steadily shifting\r\neastward, and a few models are now showing landfall in Mexico. While\r\nI am not yet ready to show that solution, the NHC prediction has\r\nbeen shifted eastward to account for the greater threat to Mexico.\r\nAccordingly, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm\r\nwarning and hurricane watch for a portion of the southwestern coast.\r\n\r\nSince Carlos is expected to remain over very warm water with\r\ndecreasing shear, it seems likely that further intensification will\r\noccur over the next day or so.  However, there is very poor\r\nagreement on what will occur after that time due to competing\r\natmospheric factors and possible land interaction.  The new NHC\r\nforecast stays on the upper end of the guidance and is raised from\r\nthe previous one.  It is worth noting that the normally\r\nconservative HWRF is above the latest NHC prediction.\r\n\r\nWith Carlos becoming a hurricane, this is the second earliest on\r\nrecord that the third hurricane has occurred in the eastern\r\nPacific season, one day behind the third hurricane of 1956.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 14.9N 100.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 15.2N 100.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 15.8N 101.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 16.3N 102.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 16.9N 103.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 20.5N 106.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 22.5N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-06-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015\r\n\r\n\r\nSatellite images show that Carlos is becoming stronger.  The eye is\r\nbecoming better defined, with a more symmetric appearance on the\r\nlatest infrared pictures.  Radar data also shows a more complete\r\neyewall, although it is still open on the north side at times.\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB/SAB support an intensity of 75 kt for the\r\ninitial wind speed.\r\n\r\nOver the past 24 hours, Carlos has drifted northeastward toward a\r\nweakness in the mid-level ridge over Mexico related to a trough over\r\nthe Gulf of Mexico.  All models continue to insist that the ridge\r\nwill strengthen soon, forcing Carlos more toward the west-northwest\r\nor northwest over the next couple of days.  The ridge is expected\r\nto weaken again due to a trough over northwestern Mexico, which\r\nshould cause Carlos to turn more to northwest by late Monday.\r\nHowever, since any significant westward motion has yet to\r\nmaterialize, the guidance continues to show a greater threat to\r\nMexico, with many models now having a landfall within a few days\r\ntime. Thus, the NHC forecast is moved to the right in agreement with\r\nthe model consensus.  Although the center is still offshore of\r\nMexico through 36 hours, the hurricane-force wind radii are too\r\nclose for comfort, and therefore the government of Mexico has issued\r\na Hurricane Warning for a portion of the southwestern coast.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data show that the low- and mid-level circulations of\r\nCarlos remain a little displaced from one another due to\r\nnortheasterly shear.  However, this shear is forecast to get rather\r\nlight over the next 24 hours while the hurricane moves over waters\r\nnear 30C.  It appears that the environment overall is becoming more\r\nsupportive of significant strengthening than earlier anticipated,\r\nassuming that Carlos moves as forecast and does not suffer from its\r\nown cold wake.  This favorable environment is also reflected in the\r\nSHIPS rapid intensification index showing a 30 percent chance of a\r\n30 kt increase over the next 24 hours.  Thus, the NHC forecast is\r\nraised from the previous one, above most of the guidance, and is\r\nclosest to the LGEM model.  The intensity forecast at 72 hours and\r\nbeyond is quite uncertain since it depends on exactly how much land\r\ninteraction occurs with Carlos.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 15.2N 100.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 15.6N 100.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.1N 101.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 16.7N 102.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 17.3N 103.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 19.4N 104.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 21.0N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  18/1800Z 23.0N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-06-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015\r\n\r\nCarlos has a somewhat ragged appearance in satellite imagery at the\r\nmoment.  While an eye occasionally appears, the surrounding\r\nconvection is asymmetric with little convection to the northwest of\r\nthe eye.  This asymmetry is also seen in data from the Mexican\r\nradar at Acapulco, which shows strong bands to the east and weak\r\nbands to the west of the center.  Satellite intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB remain 77 kt, so the initial intensity remains 75\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 345/2.  Water vapor imagery suggests that the\r\nforecast mid to upper-level ridge is now developing over central\r\nMexico.  This should cause Carlos to turn northwestward or\r\nwest-northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours.  After a couple\r\nof days, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as\r\na mid to upper-level trough drops southward across northwestern\r\nMexico.  This should result in Carlos turning more northward on the\r\neast side of the trough.  While the dynamical models generally\r\nagree on the overall pattern, there is significant disagreement on\r\nwhether Carlos will make landfall in Mexico.  The GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels call for the center to turn northward quickly enough to make\r\nlandfall in the Manzanillo-Cabo Corrientes area.  On the other hand,\r\nthe Canadian, UKMET, and NAVGEM models keep the cyclone offshore.\r\nThe new forecast track, which is similar to the previous track,\r\ngenerally follows the GFS/ECMWF solutions, showing a landfall near\r\nCabo Corrientes in about 72 hours and a second landfall by 120 hours\r\nin northwestern Mexico.\r\n\r\nVertical shear is diminishing over Carlos, and the system is\r\nexpected to remain over warm water until landfall.  This should\r\nallow continued strengthening until landfall.  However, the\r\nintensity guidance does not show a lot of strengthening, and Carlos'\r\nstruggles to maintain an eyewall suggest some negative factor at\r\nwork such as dry air entrainment.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nslightly weaker than the previous forecast in calling for a peak\r\nintensity of 90 kt in about 36 hours.  Landfall in western Mexico\r\nshould cause considerable weakening and disruption of the\r\ncirculation, and thus the intensity forecast show significant\r\nweakening after 48 hours.  The intensity forecast is of low\r\nconfidence due to the uncertainly in the amount of land interaction\r\nand why Carlos is currently struggling to intensify.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 15.5N 100.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 15.9N 100.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 16.9N 102.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 17.5N 103.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 19.5N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 21.5N 106.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  19/0000Z 23.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-06-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Carlos has deteriorated overnight,\r\nwith a decrease of inner-core deep convection and less well-defined\r\nconvective banding features.  An eye is no longer present on\r\nsatellite images, and only about half of an eyewall was seen in the\r\nAcapulco radar data.  Dvorak T-numbers have decreased, and using a\r\nblend of final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB the current\r\nintensity is set at 70 kt.  Given that the hurricane has been over\r\nthe same general area for over a day, it is likely that the cyclone\r\nis being influenced by upwelled and cooled ocean waters.  This has\r\nprobably contributed to the weakening, as was also seen with\r\nslow-moving Hurricane Blanca over a week ago.  The\r\nnorth-northeasterly shear that had been affecting the system has\r\nlessened, and the shear should remain fairly weak for the next few\r\ndays.  Assuming that Carlos will be moving away from its cool wake\r\nsoon, restrengthening should begin later today.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is below the previous one, but above the\r\navailable guidance.  The intensity forecast in the latter part of\r\nthe forecast period is highly uncertain since it depends on the\r\nextent to which the circulation will interact with the Mexican\r\nlandmass in 1 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion continues to be quite slow, or 340/3 kt.  A\r\nmid-level ridge to the north of Carlos is expected to build a\r\nlittle over the next couple of days.  This should cause a turn\r\ntoward the northwest and west-northwest with some increase in\r\nforward speed in 1 to 2 days.  Beyond that time the ridge weakens,\r\nso in 3 to 5 days the tropical cyclone should turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest.  As noted earlier, while the dynamical models\r\ngenerally agree on the overall pattern, there is disagreement on\r\nwhere and when Carlos will make landfall in southwestern Mexico.\r\nThe latest ECMWF solution shows landfall within 3 days whereas the\r\nGFS shows landfall much sooner, within 1 to 2 days.  Some of the\r\nother guidance, such as the UKMET model, does not show landfall at\r\nall.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and\r\nis close to the ECMWF solution.  Based on the new forecast track,\r\nthe government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning westward\r\nto Punta San Telmo.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 15.8N 100.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 16.3N 101.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 16.9N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 18.0N 104.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 20.0N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 21.5N 105.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  19/0600Z 23.5N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-06-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern of Carlos has eroded slightly since the\r\nprevious advisory and AMSU microwave satellite imagery indicates\r\nthat the western half of the eyewall has deteriorated as well.\r\nBased on a blend of available satellite intensity estimates, the\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/02 kt. Steering\r\ncurrents are expected to gradually strengthen as a mid-level ridge\r\nover northern Mexico slowly builds to the north of Carlos. The ridge\r\nshould force the cyclone on a slow west-northwestward track just\r\noffshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or\r\nso. As Carlos nears the western periphery of the ridge by 72 hours,\r\nthe cyclone should turn northwestward to north-northwestward and\r\ncould move inland.  Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of\r\nthe Sierra Madre del Sur mountains would keep the main circulation\r\nof Carlos from moving very far inland on days 4 and 5. The global\r\nand regional models are in decent agreement on this scenario, and\r\nthe official forecast track lies close to but is a little slower\r\nthan the previous advisory track, following a blend of the consensus\r\nmodel TVCN and the FSSE model.\r\n\r\nSea-surface temperature data from Remote Sensing Systems this\r\nmorning indicate that a pool of cooler water has indeed upwelled\r\nbeneath Carlos, as alluded to in the previous discussion.  The\r\ncolder water, in combination with some dry mid-level downslope flow\r\nand modest northeasterly vertical wind shear, has likely caused the\r\nshort term weakening of the cyclone. However, with Carlos expected\r\nto begin moving away from the region of upwelling and into an\r\nenvironment of light shear later today, restrengthening back\r\nto hurricane status is forecast to occur by late tonight or Monday\r\nmorning. Further slow strengthening is expected until landfall\r\noccurs. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast\r\nperiod remains highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to\r\nwhich Carlos will interact with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and\r\nbeyond. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS intensity\r\nmodel and the previous intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 15.9N 100.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-06-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015\r\n\r\nAlthough the satellite and radar appearance of Carlos has improved\r\nslightly during the past few hours, including an intermittent\r\ncloud-filled eye feature, cloud tops have warmed by more than 10\r\ndegrees Celsius in the convection surrounding the ragged eye feature\r\nduring this time.  Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus\r\nT4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, but the intensity is being held\r\nslightly lower at 60 kt due to the warming cloud tops.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 310/05 kt. There is no change to\r\nthe previous forecast track or reasoning.  The mid-level ridge to\r\nthe north of Carlos is expected to strengthen and shift slowly\r\neastward during the next 48-72 hours, which should act to keep the\r\nsmall cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward direction, just\r\noffshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours. By\r\n72 hours, Carlos is expected to turn northwestward to north-\r\nnorthwestward around the western periphery of the ridge axis,\r\npossibly moving inland from near Manzanillo to Cabo Corrientes.\r\nAssuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of the Sierra Madre del\r\nSur mountains would keep the main circulation of slow-moving Carlos\r\nfrom penetrating too far inland on days 4 and 5 due to the lack of\r\nany strong steering flow.  The global and regional models remain in\r\ndecent agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track\r\nlies a tad to the left of the previous advisory track, following a\r\nblend of the consensus model TVCN and the FSSE model.\r\n\r\nNow that Carlos has begun to move away from the region of cold\r\nupwelling and into an environment of light vertical shear, some\r\nrestrengthening is expected and the cyclone is forecast to regain\r\nhurricane status by late tonight or Monday morning.  Further slow\r\nstrengthening is possible until landfall occurs, assuming that\r\nCarlos remains far enough offshore of Mexico.  The intensity\r\nforecast in the latter part of the forecast period continues to\r\nremain uncertain since it depends heavily on how much interaction\r\nCarlos has with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and beyond.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is above all of the available guidance and is\r\nvery similar to the previous intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 16.4N 100.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.8N 101.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 17.3N 102.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 17.6N 103.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 18.3N 104.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 20.2N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 22.4N 105.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  19/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-06-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation has not changed significantly during the\r\npast few hours. The convection surrounding the intermittent eye\r\nfeature has been fluctuating in intensity and is located mostly to\r\nthe east of the center. Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are lower\r\nthat earlier, but still suggest an initial intensity of 60 kt. The\r\nintensity forecast is uncertain. Most of the global guidance,\r\nespecially the GFS, basically dissipate the cyclone in the short\r\nterm, and none of the other models suggest any significant\r\nstrengthening. Given that Carlos will be moving into a low shear\r\nenvironment and over warm waters for the next day or so, the NHC\r\nforecast calls for a very slight strengthening, if at all. Beyond 3\r\ndays, the interaction of the circulation with the high terrain of\r\nMexico should result in weakening. The weakening could occur much\r\nfaster, if an earlier turn to the north-northwest toward land\r\nmaterializes, as indicated by the GFS.\r\n\r\nThe steering currents remain weak and Carlos is moving toward the\r\nnorthwest or 315 degrees at 5 kt. A weakness north of the cyclone\r\nshould encourage a gradual north-northwesterly turn, and this is the\r\nsolution of the ECMWF and the GFS. The NHC forecast is a little bit\r\nto the left of these two models and the previous official forecast,\r\nand is very close to the multi-model consensus. It is difficult to\r\nforecast if the cyclone will even exist beyond 3 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 16.7N 101.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 17.1N 102.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 17.4N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 18.0N 104.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 18.7N 104.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 20.5N 105.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z 24.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-06-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015\r\n\r\nEnhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that the cloud pattern of\r\nCarlos has diminished in size during the past 12 hours.\r\nA subsequent 0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass also indicated a decrease in\r\nthe overall extent of the tropical-storm-force winds.  The\r\nsubjective or objective T-numbers for this advisory remain unchanged\r\nas well as the initial intensity of 60 kt, although this could be\r\ngenerous.  The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain,\r\nespecially since the GFS continues to show Carlos dissipating over\r\nwater and offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico in less than 72 hours.\r\n On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical guidance continue to\r\nindicate gradual strengthening through 3 days before leveling off as\r\na category 1 hurricane.  The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise\r\nof both solutions, showing slight restrengthening to a hurricane in\r\n24 hours.  Afterwards, gradual weakening into a depression is\r\nexpected in 72 hours due to land interaction and an unfavorable\r\nthermodynamic environment.  Beyond the 72 hour period, the forecast\r\ncalls for further weakening into a remnant low in 96 hours and\r\ndissipation at day 5.\r\n\r\nIt appears as though Carlos is finally feeling the affects of the\r\nbuilding mid-tropospheric ridge over central Mexico, and is now\r\nmoving west-northwestward or 295/5 kt. The cyclone should continue\r\non this track through the 36 hour period.  Afterwards, the dynamical\r\nmodels show a weakness developing in the ridge to the north of\r\nCarlos which should turn the system more northwestward and toward\r\nthe coast of Mexico.  The official forecast reflects this expected\r\nchange in the steering pattern.  The NHC forecast is again shifted\r\nto the left of the previous advisory and is weighed heavily on a\r\nblend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate\r\nCarlos later today and should provide a good estimate of the\r\nintensity.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 16.7N 101.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-06-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015\r\n\r\nFirst-light visible satellite imagery indicates Carlos remains a\r\nvery small tropical cyclone. An earlier GCOM-AMSR microwave pass\r\nalso indicated the compact nature of the system, including a closed\r\n5-10 nmi diameter eye. The consensus of satellite intensity\r\nestimates is 55 kt, but we'll hold the initial intensity at 60 kt\r\npending the arrival of a United States Air Force Reserve hurricane\r\nhunter aircraft.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/05 kt.  Carlos is expected\r\nto maintain a slow west-northwestward motion and move essentially\r\nparallel to the south-central coast of Mexico for the next 24-36\r\nhours. After that time, there is a distinct bifurcation in the model\r\nguidance with how strong the mid-level ridge across northern Mexico\r\nand Texas is forecast to be. The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the\r\nBAM models keep the ridge stronger and also weaken Carlos, resulting\r\nin the cyclone moving westward at 48 hours and beyond. In contrast,\r\nthe ECMWF and GFDL models weaken the ridge and keep Carlos stronger,\r\nand gradually move the cyclone northwestward and then northward near\r\nthe southwestern coast of Mexico during that time. Given that the\r\nlarge low pressure system currently located over the central Gulf of\r\nMexico is forecast to move inland over Texas by 48 hours, which\r\nshould act to weaken the mid-level ridge to the north and northeast\r\nof Carlos, the ECMWF-GFDL solution is preferred at this time. The\r\nNHC official track forecast is essentially just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory, and lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, and\r\nGFDL forecast tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right\r\nof the forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the\r\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe very small size of Carlos makes the cyclone susceptible to small\r\nfluctuations in the vertical wind shear. However, the general trend\r\nin the GFS-based SHIPS intensity model is calling for the shear to\r\ndecrease to less than 5 kt by 48 hours and beyond, which should\r\nallow for some strengthening to occur over 29C SSTs . Carlos is\r\nexpected to weaken into a depression by 72 hours due to\r\nland interaction and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment,\r\nbecoming a remnant low by 96 hrs, and dissipating by 120 hrs. The\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely\r\nfollows the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 17.0N 102.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 17.3N 103.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 17.8N 104.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 18.4N 105.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 19.4N 105.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 21.2N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 22.8N 106.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-06-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015\r\n\r\nEarlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft\r\ninvestigating Carlos found 700 mb flight-level winds of 69 kt along\r\nwith SFMR surface winds of 64-67 kt in light rain areas. Two\r\ndropsondes released in the eyewall also reported surface winds of 62\r\nand 64 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity of Carlos\r\nhas been increased to 65 kt, making the cyclone a category 1\r\nhurricane once again.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/05 kt. The latest NHC model\r\nguidance has maintained a bifurcation in the track forecasts after\r\n36-48 hours. The UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the BAM models continue to\r\ntake a significantly weaker cyclone off to the west, whereas the\r\nECMWF and GFDL models, and now the GFS model as well, keep Carlos a\r\nlittle stronger and closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico.\r\nGiven the relative weakness of the mid-level ridge to the north and\r\nnortheast of Carlos, which is expected to further weaken as the\r\nlarge low pressure system currently located over the west-central\r\nGulf of Mexico moves across Texas in 24-48 hours, a forecast track\r\nto the west-northwest and closer to the coast of Mexico is the\r\npreferred scenario at this time. The NHC official track forecast\r\nlies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, GFDL, and GFS forecast\r\ntracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the\r\nforecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern\r\ncoast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe general trend in the models is for the vertical wind shear to\r\ncontinue to weaken to around 5 kt by 24 hours. The combination of\r\nlight shear and warm SSTs of around 29C could result in some slight\r\nstrengthening during the next day or so. However, given the compact\r\nnature of Carlos, any fluctuations in intensity should be\r\nshort-lived, so the official forecast calls for a steady intensity\r\nduring that time. By 72 hours, Carlos will be moving into\r\nunfavorable thermodynamic conditions and could also be interacting\r\nwith the higher terrain of Mexico, resulting in the cyclone\r\nweakening to a tropical depression by 72 hours, and degenerating\r\ninto a remnant low by 96 hours. Dissipation of the small storm is\r\nexpected by 120 hrs, if not sooner. The intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 17.0N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-06-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images suggest that Carlos is maintaining its intensity\r\nthis evening.  The center of the compact hurricane is estimated to\r\nbe embedded on the north side of a persistent area of deep\r\nconvection.  The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB\r\nsupport an intensity of 65 kt, which is what the earlier\r\naircraft data suggested as well.  Carlos remains a very small\r\ntropical cyclone.  The data measured by the Hurricane Hunters\r\nearlier today and a ASCAT pass from several hours ago indicated that\r\nthe tropical storm force winds extended no more than 40 n mi from\r\nthe center with hurricane force winds confined to a tiny area around\r\nthe center.\r\n\r\nThe northerly shear currently affecting Carlos is expected to lessen\r\ntomorrow while the hurricane remains over warm water.  These\r\nenvironmental factors would typically support strengthening.\r\nHowever, most of the models show Carlos weakening or dissipating\r\nduring the next few days.  This weakening shown in the models is\r\npossibly due to the interaction with land and the higher terrain of\r\nMexico and some drier air.  It is also possible that the models\r\nare having difficultly with Carlos given its small size compared to\r\ntheir resolutions.  The official intensity forecast is mainly an\r\nupdate of the previous one, but does show Carlos becoming a remnant\r\nlow sooner than previously predicted.\r\n\r\nCarlos is moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt.  A turn to the\r\nnorthwest is expected to occur on Tuesday followed by a north-\r\nnorthwestward motion on Wednesday when the storm moves toward\r\na weakness in the subtropical ridge enhanced by Tropical Storm Bill\r\nin the Gulf of Mexico.  The models that don't dissipate Carlos have\r\ngenerally shifted to the left, and the official forecast has been\r\nadjusted in that direction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 17.2N 103.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 17.5N 104.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 18.1N 104.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 18.9N 105.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 19.8N 106.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 20.5N 106.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 21.2N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-06-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation is somewhat improved this evening with\r\nthe clouds near the embedded center of circulation cooling to -80C.\r\nFurthermore, an earlier SSMI/S overpass revealed development of a\r\nsmall banding eye feature in the cloud pattern, despite the 8-10 kt\r\nof northerly shear.  Accordingly, the initial intensity is kept at\r\n65 kt for this advisory.  Little change in strength is expected\r\nduring the next 12-24 hours, then gradual weakening is anticipated\r\nthrough the remaining period as indicated by the SHIPS intensity\r\nmodel, the global models, and the Florida State Superensemble.  The\r\naforementioned weakening trend is based on the expectation that the\r\ncyclone will be moving into an area of large-scale subsidence\r\nand drier air spreading southward from Baja California and northwest\r\nMexico.  The increasingly unfavorable environment should result in\r\nCarlos becoming a remnant low in 3 days.\r\n\r\nCarlos has continued to move west-northwestward or 295/5 kt over\r\nthe past 12 hours.  A turn to the north-northwest is expected\r\nWednesday morning as the cyclone enters a growing weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge extending westward from central Mexico.  Carlos\r\nis forecast to continue on this general motion until dissipation in\r\n5 days.  The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a bit to the left\r\nof the previous advisory to side with the reliable TVCN model\r\nconsensus and the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 17.4N 103.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 17.8N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 18.5N 105.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 19.2N 106.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 19.8N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 20.6N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 21.4N 107.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-06-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nRecent microwave data show that Carlos remains a tiny but well-\r\norganized hurricane.  A well-defined eye was noted in the microwave\r\ndata, but no eye is apparent in early-morning visible satellite\r\nimages.  The initial intensity is kept at 65 kt based on satellite\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane\r\nshould provide a better estimate of the maximum winds in a few\r\nhours.  The intensity forecast remains a challenge, and with Carlos\r\nbeing such a small cyclone, sudden changes in intensity--up or\r\ndown--are a distinct possibility.  The SHIPS diagnostics don't show\r\nenvironmental parameters being too hostile, and both the SHIPS and\r\nLGEM keep Carlos in the 60-65 kt range for the next three days.  The\r\nglobal models, on the other hand, weaken the cyclone quickly, with\r\nthe ECMWF showing dissipation by the end of that same time frame.\r\nThe official forecast continues to hold on to the assumption that\r\ndry air and large-scale subsidence will become an issue in a few\r\ndays, and Carlos is forecast to weaken gradually to a remnant low by\r\nday 4.  As implied above, this intensity forecast is of low\r\nconfidence.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/4 kt.  A gradual turn toward the\r\nnorthwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days,\r\nwhich should keep Carlos just offshore the southwestern coast of\r\nMexico.  The updated NHC track forecast has again been shifted a\r\nbit westward, following the trend in the overall guidance envelope\r\nand the TVCN multi-model consensus.  Since the ECMWF dissipates the\r\ncyclone in about three days, the official forecast favors the GFS\r\nsolution after that time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 18.0N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 18.6N 105.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 19.1N 106.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 19.5N 106.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 20.1N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 21.2N 107.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-06-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nCarlos is a feisty little hurricane.  Despite the hurricane's\r\nsatellite presentation, the Air Force reconnaissance aircraft\r\nmeasured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 90 kt and SFMR winds\r\nbetween 80-85 kt. The maximum surface winds are therefore estimated\r\nto be 80 kt.  The flight meteorologist also indicated that Carlos's\r\neye was about 7-8 n mi wide.  There continues to be low confidence\r\nin the intensity forecast, since none of the models seem to be able\r\nto handle Carlos's size particularly well.  The statistical-\r\ndynamical models keep Carlos as a hurricane for another three days\r\nor so, while the global and regional dynamical models indicate fast\r\nweakening (the ECMWF shows dissipation within 24 hours!).  The NHC\r\nofficial intensity forecast indicates gradual weakening through day\r\n3, with dissipation by day 4.  However, Carlos's small size makes it\r\nsusceptible to large swings in intensity, and even a slight increase\r\nin shear or dry air could lead to faster weakening than indicated.\r\n\r\nBased on the aircraft fixes, Carlos appears to have turned\r\nnorthwestward, or 305/4 kt, toward a break in the subtropical\r\nridge located over northern Mexico and Texas.  Since the most\r\nreliable track models dissipate the cyclone so soon, the official\r\nforecast relies on the remaining available guidance (GFDL, NAVGEM,\r\nand GFNI) more than usual.  The updated NHC track forecast is\r\nessentially a blend of the available guidance and the previous\r\nofficial forecast.\r\n\r\nDue to the high uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts,\r\nthe tropical storm warning and hurricane watch for the coast of\r\nMexico will be unchanged.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 17.8N 104.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 18.2N 104.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 18.9N 105.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 19.6N 106.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 20.2N 106.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 21.6N 107.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlos","Adv":26,"Date":"2015-06-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015\r\n\r\nTiny hurricane Carlos' surface circulation is appearing to become\r\nunglued from its deep convection and its mid-level circulation.\r\nWhile a mid-level center may be co-located within the convection\r\nnear 17.5N 105.0W, the surface center is located substantially\r\nfarther northeast.  However, it is an open question as to where\r\nexactly it is currently located.  My best estimate shown below is\r\nbased upon last-light visible imagery and a very timely 0051Z\r\nWindSat microwave pass.\r\n\r\nThe initial position suggests a current motion of 315/4 kt.\r\nDecaying Carlos should continue to move toward the northwest at\r\nabout the same rate of speed, as it gets advected along by the\r\nlow-level flow.  As all of the global models lose the circulation\r\nof Carlos within a day, the track forecast is based upon a blend of\r\npersistence and the BAM advection models.  Due to the more northward\r\ninitial position, the track prediction is farther north than that\r\nfrom the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe areal extent of deep convection is also diminishing and the\r\nDvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are dropping in\r\nresponse.  The initial intensity of 65 kt is based upon a 4.0 CI\r\nnumber from both agencies, which represents a substantial drop\r\nfrom what the aircraft reconnaissance observed only several hours\r\nago.  It is quite possible that the tropical cyclone is even weaker\r\nthan indicated here, given the rather abrupt dislocation of the\r\nconvection from the center. Embedded within an increasingly dry and\r\nstable atmosphere coupled with moderate northerly vertical shear,\r\nCarlos should continue to weaken.  The official forecast is a blend\r\nbetween the LGEM and SHIPS statistical models (which slowly weaken\r\nCarlos) and the HWRF and GFDL dynamical models (which nearly\r\nimmediately dissipate Carlos).  This forecast is substantially below\r\nthe predictions from the last advisory due to the quick reversal\r\nfrom intensification to weakening.  Given the tiny size of the\r\nsystem, the very rapid dissipation indicated by the dynamical models\r\nis not out of the question.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 18.2N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 18.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 19.1N 105.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 19.5N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 19.8N 106.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":27,"Date":"2015-06-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite appearance of Carlos continues to rapidly deteriorate\r\nas the surface circulation separates further from the remaining\r\nless organized and shrinking deep convection.  Moderate northerly\r\nshear and mid to upper-level dry, stable, air penetrating the cloud\r\npattern from western Mexico has more than likely been the\r\ncontributing factor in the sudden weakening trend.  Small, compact,\r\ntropical cyclones such as Carlos are notorious for spinning down as\r\nquickly as they can rapidly intensify.  The initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 55 kt for this advisory and this could be generous given\r\nthat the Dvorak technique has been known to be imprecise with small\r\ntropical cyclones.  The NHC forecast calls for rapid weakening\r\nthrough the period as the cyclone interacts with the mountainous\r\nterrain of western Mexico before moving back over water around the\r\n24 hour period.  The current forecast philosophy is that\r\nCarlos' circulation will have been severely disrupted by the time of\r\nits expected to move offshore and into the southern Gulf of\r\nCalifornia.  Thus, regeneration is unlikely and dissipation should\r\noccur in 48 hours or less.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be around 330/6 kt.  The primary\r\nsteering mechanism through the forecast period is the\r\nsouth-southeasterly low-level flow produced by high pressure to the\r\neast-northeast of the cyclone and a trough of low pressure extending\r\nsouthward from the Gulf of California.  The official forecast,\r\nwhich is nudged to the right of the previous forecast, is based\r\nprimarily on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble, the GFS,\r\nand the shallow layer Beta and Advection Model (BAMS).\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 19.0N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 19.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 20.6N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlos","Adv":28,"Date":"2015-06-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n1000 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015\r\n\r\nAfter a brief burst of cold-topped convection early this morning,\r\nfirst-light visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that the\r\nconvection has started to wane once again. However, a 0950 UTC AMSU\r\noverpass indicated that Carlos has been able to maintain a small but\r\nwell-defined ring of convection around the center, despite its\r\nproximity to the coast of western Mexico. Satellite intensity\r\nestimates are coming down quickly and support an intensity of around\r\n40 kt, which was used for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 330/06 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings.\r\nCarlos is forecast to move north-northwestward along the coast of\r\nMexico around the southwestern periphery of a weak subtropical ridge\r\nand steadily weaken as the cyclone interacts with the rugged terrain\r\nof the Sierra Madre del Sur mountain range. Carlos is expected to\r\nweaken to a tropical depression by tonight, but that could occur\r\nsooner if the center moves onshore the coast of Mexico later this\r\nmorning, which is what the ECMWF and GFS models are forecasting to\r\nhappen. The NHC track forecast follows a blend of the FSSE and HWRF\r\nmodels, and the intensity forecast is similar to the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 19.6N 105.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 20.3N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 21.0N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 21.6N 106.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Carlos","Adv":29,"Date":"2015-06-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP032015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015\r\n400 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of the small low-level circulation of Carlos is difficult\r\nto locate, but it appears in visible satellite imagery to be located\r\nnear Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. Organized deep convection has been\r\nabsent from the center for more than six hours, and what little\r\nconvection that exists is quite shallow and is being disrupted by\r\nthe rugged terrain of western Mexico. On this basis, Carlos is being\r\ndesignated as a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued\r\nat this time. Steady weakening of the vortex is expected to continue\r\nduring the next day or so due to unfavorable thermodynamic\r\nconditions, and global model guidance shows degenerating into an\r\nopen trough by Thursday.  The NHC forecast, therefore, calls for\r\ndissipation within the next 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 330/06 kt. For the next 24\r\nhours, the remnant circulation of Carlos should continue to move\r\nslowly north-northwestward around the western periphery of a weak\r\nmid-level ridge that is located over central and eastern Mexico, and\r\nmove into the southern Gulf of California by Thursday morning where\r\ndissipation of the system is expected.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 20.2N 105.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP042015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042015\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 07 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images late this afternoon indicate that curved\r\nbands of convection have developed around the center of the\r\nwell-defined low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi\r\neast-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Therefore the system now\r\nqualifies as a tropical cyclone, and advisories are being initiated\r\nat this time. SAB/TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range\r\nfrom T1.5/25 kt to T2.5/35 kt, and the system has a pattern T-number\r\nof T2.0, so the initial intensity is set at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/15 kt. During the next 72 hours,\r\nthe cyclone is forecast to move in a general west-northwestward\r\ndirection along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer ridge\r\nlocated to its north. By 96 hours, the system is expected to weaken\r\nand become more vertically shallow, and be steered westward by the\r\nlow-level easterly trade wind flow. The models are in general\r\nagreement through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly after\r\nthat, with most of the NHC guidance moving the cyclone or its\r\nremnants west-northwestward to northwestward at 96 and 120 hours.\r\nThe exception is the ECMWF model, which turns the system\r\nwest-southwestward by 96 hours and beyond. The official forecast\r\ntrack is similar to the consensus model TVCE through 72 hours, and\r\nthen follows the ECMWF trend after that since this model maintains\r\na larger and more realistic vortex on days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe SHIPS guidance indicates that the deep-layer vertical wind\r\nshear is expected to remain below 10 kt while the system is over 26C\r\nor greater sea-surface temperatures for the next 24 hours or so,\r\nwhich should allow for gradual strengthening into a tropical storm.\r\nBy 48 hours, the shear is forecast to increase to more than 20 kt\r\nfrom the southwest, which should cap any intensification and induce\r\na steady weakening trend after that. However, the GFS-based SHIPS\r\nmodel is forecasting stronger vertical shear than the ECMWF model\r\nand, as a result, shows complete dissipation of the cyclone by 96\r\nhours. Given the reliability of the ECMWF, the official intensity\r\nforecast has incorporated a blend of these two models' shear\r\ncomputations, and maintains the system as a tropical cyclone through\r\n96 hours, and a remnant low at 120 hours. This scenario seems more\r\nlikely given the rather large size of the circulation, which will\r\nmake the vortex more shear resistant and also take longer to spin\r\ndown and dissipate.\r\n\r\nThe depression has crossed 140W longitude as of the 0300 UTC\r\nadvisory time, so this will be the last advisory issued by the\r\nNational Hurricane Center on this system. Future information on the\r\ndepression will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center\r\nin Honolulu Hawaii.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 15.4N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 16.6N 142.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 17.6N 144.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 18.6N 146.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 19.6N 148.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 21.5N 152.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 22.7N 156.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 23.0N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015\r\n\r\nCorrected for AWIPS header.\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the low pressure system located a\r\nfew hundred miles south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico now meets the\r\ncriteria to be classified as a tropical depression, the fifth one of\r\nthe 2015 eastern North Pacific season.  The initial intensity\r\nestimate is set at 30 kt.  The depression is producing a\r\nconsiderable amount of deep convection mainly to the north of the\r\nestimated low-level center with some of the outer rain bands\r\nalready affecting the coast of southern Mexico.\r\n\r\nWarm water, high moisture, and decreasing shear should allow the\r\ndepression to steadily strengthen during the next several days.  In\r\nfact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 50 hance of\r\nthe depression strengthening 25 kt during the next 24 hours.  On\r\nthe other hand, the GFDL/HWRF pair are not very aggressive.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast prefers the SHIPS solution, and\r\nlies at the high end of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/11, but this is fairly uncertain\r\ndue to the difficulty in locating the low-level center.  A motion\r\ntoward the west-northwest to northwest at about 10 kt is predicted\r\nfor the next couple of days while the cyclone is steered by a large\r\nsubtropical ridge centered over the south-central United States.  A\r\ndecrease in forward speed is expected by early next week when\r\nthe ridge weakens.  Although there is some spread in the models,\r\nthey agree on this general trend and the official track forecast is\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope. This forecast keeps the core of\r\nthe cyclone offshore of Mexico, but a small deviation to the north\r\nof this track could bring tropical storm conditions to the coast.\r\nInterests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should\r\nmonitor the progress of this system since watches or warnings\r\ncould be required.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 13.2N  98.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 14.0N 100.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 15.4N 102.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 16.6N 104.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 17.6N 106.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 18.9N 108.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 19.9N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 20.4N 111.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n400 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression appears to be gradually\r\norganizing.  Visible satellite images show banding features\r\nincreasing on the east side of the circulation and some of the outer\r\nbands are affecting the southern coast of Mexico.  The initial wind\r\nspeed estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the satellite\r\nclassifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  It should be\r\nnoted that recent ASCAT passes showed slightly higher winds, but\r\nthose appear to be partly associated with a Tehuantepec gap wind\r\nevent.\r\n\r\nThe depression is expected to strengthen during the next several\r\ndays while it remains over warm water and in atmosphere of low shear\r\nand high moisture.  The GFS and ECMWF models show the system\r\nsubstantially deepening during the next several days, and the SHIPS\r\nRapid Intensification Index shows a 63 percent chance of the system\r\nstrengthening by 25 kt during the next 24 hours.  Conversely, the\r\nGFDL and HWRF models continue to predict only slight strengthening.\r\nThe official forecast is a little higher than the previous one and\r\nlies at the high end of the model guidance, following the SHIPS\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/9.  A continued\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same speed\r\nis expected during the next couple of days while the system is\r\nsteered by a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States.\r\nAfter that time, a slower west-northwestward motion is forecast when\r\nthe ridge weakens. Little change was made to the previous forecast\r\nand it remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.  Although\r\nthe current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a small\r\ndeviation to the north of the projected track could require the\r\nissuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of the\r\nsouthwestern coast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 13.7N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 14.5N 101.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 15.7N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 16.8N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 17.7N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 18.7N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 19.7N 110.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 20.0N 111.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Five-E is gradually becoming better organized.\r\nA broad convective band is present in the northeastern semicircle,\r\nwith the coldest cloud tops currently in a cluster to the north of\r\nthe center.  Satellite intensity estimates are 30 kt from TAFB and\r\n25 kt from SAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The cirrus\r\noutflow is good in all directions except the southeast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 300/8.  The consensus of the track guidance\r\nis that the cyclone should move generally west-northwestward\r\nparallel to the coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or so,\r\nsteered by a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and the southern\r\nUnited States.  The guidance becomes divergent after that time due\r\nto the uncertainty in the evolution of a deep-layer trough over the\r\nnortheastern Pacific and the western United States.  The GFS and\r\nECMWF suggest that a ridge will build westward from Mexico between\r\nthe cyclone and the trough, and they thus forecast the depression\r\nto turn westward. The UKMET, GFDL, and GFDN forecast the trough to\r\nprevent the ridge from building, and thus show a northwestward\r\nmotion.  The new track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF scenario in\r\nshowing a westward turn, and it lies a little to the south of the\r\nprevious track.\r\n\r\nThe depression is expected to remain in a moist environment and over\r\nwarm sea surface temperatures for the next several days.  The\r\nvertical wind shear is currently light, and the environment is\r\nfavorable for rapid intensification during the next 24-36 hours as\r\nshown by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index.  However, the\r\ncyclone currently lacks a well-defined inner core, and the GFS and\r\nECMWF suggest that a period of moderate northerly shear may affect\r\nthe cyclone around 48 hours.  These factors could slow or stop any\r\nrapid intensification.  Overall, the intensity guidance is stronger\r\nthan that of the previous advisory, with the SHIPS model\r\nforecasting an intensity near 100 kt by 120 hours.  The intensity\r\nforecast calls for the same steady strengthening through 48 hours as\r\nthe previous forecast, then shows slightly higher intensities for\r\n72-120 hours. The forecast is in best agreement with the intensity\r\nconsensus through 72 hours, and is near the SHIPS model after that.\r\n\r\nAlthough the current track forecast remains offshore of Mexico, a\r\nsmall deviation to the north of the projected track could require\r\nthe issuance of tropical storm watches or warnings for a portion of\r\nthe southwestern coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 13.8N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 14.6N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 15.8N 103.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 16.6N 105.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 18.5N 108.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 19.5N 110.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 19.5N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n400 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that a CDO pattern is developing over the\r\nlow-level center of the tropical cyclone located south of Acapulco,\r\nMexico. A 0428 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated 40-43 kt\r\nwinds in the northern semicircle and the ship Seoul Express, call\r\nsign DHBN, which has been traversing the northeastern quadrant,\r\nreported 35-kt and 33-kt winds at 0300 UTC and 0600 UTC,\r\nrespectively. Based on these data, the system has been upgraded to\r\nTropical Storm Dolores.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 300/10 kt. There is no significant change to\r\nthe previous forecast track or reasoning. With the exception of the\r\nGFDL model, which has a known right-bias near Mexico, the remainder\r\nof the NHC model guidance is now tightly clustered about a general\r\nwest-northwestward motion for the next five days as a strong ridge\r\nto the north of Dolores remains entrenched across the U.S. southern\r\nPlains and northern Mexico. By day 3 and beyond, a gradual decrease\r\nin forward speed is expected as the western portion of the ridge\r\nweakens. The official forecast track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nDolores is expected to remain in a very favorable environment for\r\nsignificant strengthening to occur, especially with large\r\nupper-level lows located to the northwest and to the east of the\r\ncyclone helping to evacuate mass from the system. However, UW-CIMMS\r\nshear analyses indicate that southwesterly mid-level shear has been\r\nundercutting the otherwise favorable upper-level outflow pattern,\r\nwhich has resulted in most of the deep convection remaining in the\r\nnorthern semicircle of Dolores. This pattern is expected to continue\r\nfor the next 48 hours or so, followed by a more favorable outflow\r\nregime and lower shear. As a result, at least steady intensification\r\nis forecast throughout the 5-day period, with Dolores expected to\r\nbecome a major hurricane by 120 h. The official intensity forecast\r\nis a little above the previous advisory forecast, and is similar to\r\nthe intensity consensus model ICON through 96 hours and a little\r\nabove ICON at 120 hours.\r\n\r\nAlthough the current track forecast keeps the center of Dolores and\r\nthe core of strongest winds offshore of southern Mexico, only a\r\nsmall deviation to the north of the projected track and-or an\r\nexpansion of the 34-kt wind field would require the issuance of\r\ntropical storm watches or warnings for a  portion of the\r\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico. At the present time, however, the\r\nwind flow is expected to be from an easterly direction along the\r\nmountainous coastal areas of Mexico, which should act to keep the\r\ncurrent tropical-storm-force wind field just offshore.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 14.6N 101.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.4N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 17.0N 105.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 17.6N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 18.8N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 19.5N 110.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 20.0N 113.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been no appreciable change to the organization of\r\nDolores' cloud pattern during the past several hours.  Satellite\r\ndata show the cyclone maintaining a large mass of cold-topped\r\nconvection, primarily in a band over the northeastern semicircle of\r\nthe circulation. Microwave data and visible satellite imagery\r\nsuggest that the low-level center is located near a new convective\r\nburst, perhaps the beginning of a central dense overcast. Dvorak\r\nclassifications were T2.5 and T3.0 from SAB and TAFB, respectively,\r\nat 1200 UTC.  A blend of these satellite intensity estimates is used\r\nto keep the intensity at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is between west-northwest and northwest or\r\n305/09. A mid-level anticyclone over the south-central United\r\nStates should steer Dolores on a generally west-northwestward\r\nheading for the next 5 days, with some deceleration in forward speed\r\nby 48 hours.  Global models are in excellent agreement on this\r\nscenario, and the spread of the model guidance is generally low\r\nthrough 72 hours, except for the GFDL model that takes Dolores\r\ntoward the Baja California peninsula.  After 72 hours, the model\r\nsolutions diverge somewhat, with the GFS taking Dolores farther\r\nnorth due to a weaker subtropical ridge and the ECMWF showing the\r\ncyclone farther west due to a stronger ridge and a weaker trough off\r\nof the U.S. West coast. The NHC forecast track is along or just to\r\nthe left of the previous forecast, closely following the multi-model\r\nconsensus minus the GFDL solution.\r\n\r\nDolores seems poised to strengthen.  Atmospheric and oceanic\r\nthermodynamic variables are quite conducive for intensification\r\nthrough about 96 hours. In fact, the SHIPS RI index indicates a 70\r\npercent chance of a 25-kt increase by this time tomorrow. However,\r\nthe SHIPS model does indicate some light westerly or northwesterly\r\nshear in 24-48 hours, but it would appear that the shear is not\r\nenough to impede intensification.  Beyond 96 hours, water\r\ntemperatures are expected to be marginally warm and Dolores should\r\nhave already begun to ingest somewhat drier and more stable air,\r\nwhich should promote weakening.  The intensity at the end of the\r\nforecast period is very much dependent on how much latitude Dolores\r\ngains by that time.  Like previous forecasts, the current one is\r\nnear or above the multi-model consensus similar to SHIPS\r\nmodel guidance.\r\n\r\nThe government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along\r\nthe southwestern coast of Mexico due to the cyclone's expected\r\nintensification and associated increase in the size of the wind\r\nfield.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 15.4N 101.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 16.1N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 16.8N 104.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 17.3N 106.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 17.8N 107.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 18.8N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 19.7N 110.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 20.3N 113.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n400 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been no significant change in Dolores' organization\r\nduring the past several hours.  Satellite imagery continues to\r\nshow most of the cyclone's deep convection remaining in a band over\r\nthe northeastern semicircle of the circulation. This convective\r\nasymmetry is likely related to some west-northwesterly shear as\r\ndiagnosed by UW-CIMSS and SHIPS shear analyses. An ASCAT-B pass\r\nshowed the center barely underneath the convective mass, with peak\r\nuncontaminated winds around 45 kt. Based on the ASCAT data, the\r\ninitial intensity is raised to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe ASCAT pass showed the center of Dolores to be a bit farther\r\nsouth than previous estimates, and the heading is estimated to be\r\nmore westerly or 295/09.  A subtropical ridge over the south-central\r\nUnited States should guide Dolores generally west-northwestward\r\nwith a decrease in forward speed during the next 48 hours.  The\r\ncyclone's heading should become more northwesterly by 72 hours, when\r\nDolores reaches the western periphery of the ridge. Later in the\r\nforecast period, Dolores' track should bend back toward the west-\r\nnorthwest as the subtropical ridge reasserts itself.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is similar to but a little to the left of\r\nthe previous one through 48 hours and slightly to the right after\r\nthat.  The track forecast after 48 hours is near a multi-model\r\nconsensus that excludes the GFDL solution which unrealistically\r\ntakes Dolores toward the Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nThermodynamic variables in the near-storm environment are quite\r\nconducive for intensification, with sea surface temperatures of\r\n29-30 deg C and plenty of deep-layer moisture.  Some west-\r\nnorthwesterly shear is forecast to persist and perhaps even\r\nincrease over the next day or so before decreasing from 72 hours\r\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period.  However, the shear\r\nis not expected to be strong enough to impede steady\r\nintensification.  With a sharp gradient in SSTs along 20N, the\r\nintensity late in the period is very much dependent on how much\r\nlatitude Dolores gains by that time.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nabout the same as the previous one and is very similar to the\r\nmulti-model consensus (ICON) through 48 hours but above ICON\r\nafter that, closest to the SHIPS model guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 15.6N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 16.2N 104.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 16.8N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 17.7N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 18.9N 109.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 20.0N 112.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 20.9N 114.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Dolores has become a little better organized\r\nthis evening, with slightly more defined convective banding features\r\nover the eastern semicircle of the storm.  The current intensity is\r\nincreased to 50 kt, which is just a bit above the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates.  The tropical cyclone will be traversing very warm waters\r\nwith abundant mid-level moisture over the next day or so, and the\r\nonly obvious impediment to strengthening should be moderate vertical\r\nshear.  The shear is not expected to be a strong inhibitor for\r\nintensification, however.  The official intensity forecast is a\r\nblend of the Decay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance and is very similar to\r\nthe previous NHC forecast and shows Dolores strengthening close to\r\nmajor hurricane status.  Weakening should commence later in the\r\nforecast period, when the cyclone nears 20N latitude and the sea\r\nsurface temperatures begin to cool significantly.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion, 300/10 kt, is about the same as in the previous\r\nadvisory.  Most of the track guidance shows a continued\r\nwest-northwestward motion, albeit almost northwest at times,\r\nthroughout the forecast period.  A mid-tropospheric ridge to the\r\nnorth and northeast of Dolores is forecast by the global models to\r\nweaken over the next few days.  This should cause a decrease in the\r\nforward speed of the tropical cyclone.  Near the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, Dolores is expected to accelerate a bit as the ridge to the\r\nnorth builds back in.  The official track forecast lies roughly in\r\nthe middle of the guidance suite.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.2N 103.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 17.1N 106.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 17.4N 107.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 17.8N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 19.0N 110.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 20.4N 112.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n400 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nDolores' convective cloud pattern has continued to improve overnight\r\nwith a distinct CDO now evident along with a large curved band\r\nin the eastern semicircle. In addition, a warm spot has recently\r\nappeared near the center of the CDO, a possible precursor to the\r\ndevelopment of an eye.  The ship Asia Excellence, call sign C6AX5,\r\ntraversed the northeastern quadrant during the past several hours\r\nand reported winds of 55 kt. Based on that report and a UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nintensity estimate of T3.7/59 kt, the intensity of Dolores has been\r\nincreased to 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt, and is based on continuity\r\nwith the previous forecast and limited microwave fix data. The NHC\r\nmodel guidance is in decent agreement on Dolores maintaining a\r\nwest-northwestward motion along with a decrease in forward speed\r\nthrough the forecast period as a strong ridge to its north holds\r\nsteady. Some spread in the models occurs after 48 hours due to\r\ndifferences in how they handle the large trough along the U.S. west\r\ncoast and how much it erodes the western portion of the ridge over\r\nthe U.S. desert southwest and northwestern Mexico. The reliable\r\nECMWF and GFS global models, and the regional HWRF model, keep the\r\nridge intact across Baja California, and the official track\r\nforecast follows this scenario by keeping Dolores well to the south\r\nand southwest of Baja California.  The latest NHC forecast lies\r\nclose to a blend of those three model tracks.\r\n\r\nDolores is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 28C for the\r\nnext 48 hours or so, during which time the deep-layer vertical\r\nshear is expected to gradually weaken, especially after 24 hours\r\nwhen the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt. This\r\ncombination, along with a moist mid-level environment, should allow\r\nfor Dolores to continue to strengthen into a significant hurricane.\r\nAround 96-120 hours, Dolores is forecast to move over SSTs less\r\nthan 26C, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and follows the trend\r\nof the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which essentially brings Dolores\r\nto major hurricane status by 48-72 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 16.6N 105.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 16.9N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 17.1N 107.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 17.4N 108.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 17.9N 109.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 19.2N 111.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 20.6N 113.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 21.8N 116.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nDolores is gradually intensifying.  The cyclone is maintaining a\r\nsymmetric and very cold-topped central dense overcast, with the\r\ncenter fully underneath the deepest convection. Very recently the\r\ncyclone has also shed its outer bands while the inner core has\r\nincreased in organization.  The outflow remains somewhat restricted\r\nto the west, however, and there still is some evidence of west-\r\nnorthwesterly shear as a result of an upper-level trough to the\r\nnorthwest. Dvorak classifications were T3.5/55 kt from both TAFB and\r\nSAB at 1200 UTC. Since that time, there has been some further\r\nincrease in organization, and thus the initial intensity is set to\r\n60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate continues to be a steady 295/11. Dolores\r\nshould continue to be steered west-northwestward by a subtropical\r\nridge over the south-central United States during the next couple of\r\ndays. As the cyclone approaches the western periphery of this ridge,\r\nthe forward motion should decrease and the heading should become\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward in 48 to 72 hours. After that\r\ntime, the ridge should rebuild somewhat to the northeast, which\r\nshould result in a slightly faster forward speed late in the\r\nforecast period.  The GFS and ECMWF model solutions diverge\r\nconsiderably after 72 hours, owing to the strength of the\r\nsubtropical ridge. The official forecast is a little right of the\r\nprevious one through 36 hours and very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus after that time since the strength of the subtropical\r\nridge is still uncertain late in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nAlthough environmental thermodynamics are quite conducive for\r\nintensification, global models continue to show a persistent west-\r\nnorthwesterly shear over Dolores during the next 24 hours.  The\r\nshear, however, has not been enough to impede strengthening, with\r\nthe cyclone developing at about the standard T-number/day\r\nclimatological average.  SHIPS model output indicates a decrease in\r\nshear in about 36 hours, and Dolores is expected to become a major\r\nhurricane not long after that time.  With decreasing SSTs and a\r\ndrier and more stable atmosphere along Dolores' path after 96\r\nhours, the cyclone is forecast to gradually spin down.  Ultimately,\r\nthe rate of decay will depend on how quickly Dolores gains latitude\r\nlate in the forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is\r\ngenerally above the multi-model consensus and closest to SHIPS model\r\noutput.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 17.1N 106.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 17.8N 108.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 18.1N 109.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 18.4N 109.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 19.7N 112.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 21.2N 115.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 22.7N 118.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nDolores is strengthening.  Visible satellite imagery shows the\r\ninner core of the cyclone becoming better organized, and a ragged\r\neye has become evident during the past few hours.  There is also\r\na long curved band wrapping entirely around the circulation.  The\r\nupper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the west, likely\r\nthe result of a persistent west-northwesterly flow associated with\r\na trough to the northwest. A Dvorak classification of T4.0 from\r\nSAB and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.5 are used to raise the initial\r\nintensity to 65 kt.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes suggest that Dolores' forward speed has decreased\r\nconsiderably since this morning, and the initial motion estimate is\r\n295/08. Dolores is about to reach the western edge of a subtropical\r\nridge over the south-central United States, which should result in\r\ncontinued west-northwestward motion but at an even slower forward\r\nspeed.  The subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild some in 48 to\r\n72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFS are still at odds on exactly how\r\nmuch.  These models and the remaining model suite have track\r\nsolutions that are significantly divergent late in the period,\r\nand the official track forecast has been adjusted close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus, which is nearly midway between the ECWMF and\r\nGFS.  The track forecast has also been slowed down throughout the\r\nforecast period, following the trends of the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nNearly optimal thermodynamic parameters such as sea surface\r\ntemperatures of 29-30 deg C and high tropospheric moisture in the\r\nnear-storm environment should promote further strengthening.  Only\r\nsome west-northwesterly shear could slow the rate of intensification\r\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, Dolores seems\r\npoised to reach major hurricane strength and could potentially\r\nintensify more than forecast as a result of the very conducive\r\nenvironmental factors.  A gradual spin-down of the vortex is\r\nforecast after 72 hours once the cyclone reaches cooler waters\r\nand a drier and more stable atmosphere.  The statistical guidance\r\nhas responded to the current intensification and shows Dolores\r\nreaching a peak intensity of around 105 kt in 48-72 hours, and the\r\nofficial forecast follows suit.  The official forecast continues to\r\nbe above the multi-model intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 17.2N 106.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 17.5N 107.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 17.8N 108.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 18.1N 108.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 18.6N 109.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 19.8N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 21.0N 115.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 22.2N 118.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nAfter the strengthening episode noted earlier today, the intensity\r\ntrend has, at least temporarily, leveled off.  The cloud pattern\r\nhas not become significantly better organized, and Dvorak T-numbers\r\nhave not increased, over the past several hours.  Thus the current\r\nintensity estimate is held at 65 kt.  The dynamical guidance calls\r\nfor decreasing shear and the cyclone should continue to traverse a\r\nvery warm ocean during the next 48 hours.  So, although Dolores has\r\nnot been strengthening in the short term, there remains a high\r\nlikelihood for a significant increase in intensity over the next\r\ncouple of days.  The official wind speed forecast, like the\r\nprevious one, calls for the system to become a major hurricane\r\nby Wednesday.  This is similar to the latest LGEM model prediction.\r\n\r\nDolores has slowed down some more, and is moving a little to the\r\nleft of its earlier heading.  Satellite fixes yield a motion\r\nestimate of 285/05 kt.  The slow forward speed should continue as\r\nDolores moves near the periphery of a weak mid-tropospheric ridge\r\nto its north.  Little change has been made to the previous track\r\nforecast, and this official forecast is near the southern side of\r\nthe dynamical track guidance suite.  This is closest to the\r\nlatest ECMWF prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 17.2N 106.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 17.5N 107.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 17.9N 108.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 18.4N 109.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 18.9N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 20.2N 112.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 21.7N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation overnight shows an improved cloud\r\npattern with a well-developed symmetric Central Dense Overcast and\r\ncloud tops of -80 degrees C. Microwave overpasses also indicate\r\ndeveloping spiral bands over the western portion of the cyclone.\r\nObjective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates along\r\nwith an earlier AMSU-B estimate support increasing the initial\r\nintensity to 70 kt.  There is some northerly shear that appears to\r\nbe impinging on the northwestern quadrant of the system but,\r\nguidance indicates that the shear will relax within the next 12-24\r\nhours and the upper flow pattern over the southern half of the\r\nsystem is quite diffluent.  The intensity forecast continues to\r\nreflect strengthening to a major hurricane in 36-48 hours as\r\nindicated by the SHIPS model and the GFS, which has been exhibiting\r\nsome intensity skill this season.  Afterward, gradual weakening is\r\nforecast as the cyclone moves over cooler water and into the\r\nsouthern extent of a southward propagating stable air mass.\r\n\r\nA series of microwave overpasses suggest that Dolores is moving\r\nslightly to the left of track or, westward at 280/5 kt within\r\nthe weak peripheral flow of a ridge stretching over Texas and\r\nnorthern Mexico.  Dynamical guidance indicates that this current\r\nmotion is temporary, however, and a turn back toward the\r\nwest-northwest is expected later today and should continue during\r\nthe next couple of days.  Beyond the 48 hour period, the global\r\nmodels show the ridge strengthening and building westward into Baja\r\nCalifornia.  This change in the synoptic steering pattern should\r\ncause Dolores to gradually increase in forward speed while\r\ncontinuing on a west-northwest heading through 96 hours.  At the\r\nend of the period, the forecast indicates a turn toward the\r\nnorthwest which is based on the GFEX, a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nglobal models.  The NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the\r\nright of the previous forecast to correspond with the GFEX and TVCN\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 17.3N 107.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 17.5N 108.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 17.9N 108.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.4N 109.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.0N 110.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 20.4N 113.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 21.9N 116.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nDolores has continued to become better organized during the past\r\nseveral hours.  Microwave imagery indicates that a mid-level eye\r\nhas formed, and first-light visible images are showing a hint of\r\neye development as well.  The initial intensity is increased to 75\r\nkt based on a combination of subjective Dvorak Technique and AMSU\r\nintensity estimates.\r\n\r\nAfter its earlier westward turn, Dolores has resumed a\r\nwest-northwestward motion of 290/6.  The hurricane is currently\r\nbeing steered by a low- to mid-level level ridge over northern\r\nMexico.  The dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen\r\nduring the next 48 hours of so, which should cause the storm to\r\nmove a bit faster toward the west-northwest.  After 96 hours, the\r\nridge should weaken as a trough moves southward along the coast of\r\nCalifornia.  This evolution should allow Dolores to turn\r\nnorthwestward by 120 hours.  The new forecast track is similar\r\nto, but a little faster than, the previous forecast.  It lies near\r\nthe center of the guidance envelope through 96 hours and a little\r\nleft of the center of the envelope at 120 hours.\r\n\r\nDolores should continue to intensify through the next 36-48 hours\r\nin an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear, with\r\nthe biggest question being how strong will it get. The official\r\nintensity forecast during this time follows the SHIPS model, which\r\nis at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. However, the SHIPS\r\nRapid Intensification Index shows a 30 percent chance of a 30 kt\r\nincrease in intensity during the next 24 hours, so the current\r\nintensity forecast could be conservative.  Regardless of the actual\r\npeak intensity, the cyclone should start a steady weakening trend\r\nafter 48 hours as it encounters cooler waters.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 17.7N 108.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 18.0N 108.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 18.5N 109.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.0N 110.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 19.7N 111.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 22.5N 117.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 25.5N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nDolores is developing a cloud-filled 20 n mi wide eye in visible\r\nimagery, with the coldest cloud tops in the eyewall colder than\r\n-80C. The initial intensity remains 75 kt based on AMSU estimates\r\nand a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  While the hurricane has good\r\ncirrus outflow, water vapor imagery and earlier microwave imagery\r\nsuggest that mid-level dry air is entraining into the southwestern\r\nsemicircle, possibly to near the eyewall.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 295/6.  The hurricane is currently\r\nbeing steered by a low- to mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.\r\nThe dynamical models suggest the ridge should strengthen during the\r\nnext 48-72 hours, which should cause Dolores to move a bit faster\r\ntoward the west-northwest.  After that time, the ridge should weaken\r\nas a trough moves southward along the coast of California.  This\r\nevolution should allow Dolores to turn northwestward by 120 hours.\r\nThere is some spread in the model guidance during the 72-120 hour\r\nperiod, with the Canadian, GFDL, UKMET, and several of the consensus\r\nmodels showing a more northward motion than the GFS and ECMWF.  This\r\npart of the new forecast track will lean toward the GFS/ECMWF\r\nsolutions and thus lies to the left of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nDolores should continue to intensify through the next 36 hours or so\r\nin an environment of warm water and light vertical wind shear.  The\r\nSHIPS Rapid Intensification Index still shows a 30 percent chance of\r\na 30 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours.  However,\r\nthe dry air entraining into the cyclone makes it unclear whether\r\nrapid intensification will occur.  The new intensity forecast calls\r\nfor steady strengthening to a major hurricane in 36 hours, and it\r\nis possible this part of the forecast is conservative.  After 36-48\r\nhours, Dolores is expected to encounter decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures, which should cause steady or rapid weakening.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 18.0N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 18.4N 109.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 19.0N 110.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 20.3N 112.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 23.5N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 27.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nDolores has intensified, with an eye becoming more apparent while\r\nembedded within a very cold-topped central dense overcast (CDO), and\r\nthe only break in the CDO is over the northeastern quadrant.  Dvorak\r\nclassifications from both TAFB and SAB yield an intensity of 90 kt,\r\nand this will be the advisory intensity.  The upper-level outflow is\r\nbecoming better defined and the dynamical model guidance indicates\r\nthat the vertical shear will be fairly weak for the next several\r\ndays. Therefore, additional strengthening is likely until\r\nsea surface temperatures begin to cool in 48 to 72 hours.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is close to the Decay-SHIPS model and\r\nnow shows the system becoming a major hurricane sooner than in the\r\nearlier NHC forecasts.  This is consistent with the recently\r\nobserved strengthening trend, however.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion, based on reliable center fixes, remains 295/6\r\nkt. There is little change to the track forecast philosophy.  The\r\nhurricane should continue to be steered by the flow on the western\r\nside of a mid-tropospheric ridge, and continue to move on a\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward heading.  The official forecast\r\nis to the left of the dynamical model consensus, which favors the\r\nGFS and ECMWF solutions over the U.K. Met. Office and GFDL tracks\r\nsince the later two models appear to be unrealistically far to the\r\neast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 18.2N 109.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 18.6N 109.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 19.2N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 20.5N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 27.0N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nDolores has continued to strengthen overnight with conventional\r\nsatellite imagery revealing a clear 13 nmi eye and very cold\r\ncloud top temperatures of -80C over the western portion of the\r\neyewall.  The outflow pattern continues to improve, particularly\r\nover the northwestern and southeastern quadrants.  Accordingly, the\r\ninitial intensity is raised to 115 kt based on Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates of T6.0 from both TAFB and SAB.  Dolores should\r\npeak in about 24 hours as reflected in the statistical-\r\ndynamical intensity guidance, and the NHC forecast indicates a\r\nmaximum intensity of 130 kt at the time, which is just below the\r\nSHIPS model. Afterward, Dolores should gradually spin down\r\nthrough the remainder of the period and weaken to a depression\r\nby day 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 295/6 kt.  Dolores\r\ncontinues to move under the influence of the east-northeasterly\r\nmid-tropospheric flow produced by the subtropical ridge extending\r\nwestward from northern Mexico.  The large-scale models are in\r\nagreement with the aforementioned ridge strengthening between the 48\r\nand 72 hour periods which should induce a slightly faster\r\nwest-northwestward forward motion.  Afterward, Dolores is forecast\r\nto turn toward the northwest and slow a bit in response to a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough approaching the coast of California.  The NHC\r\nforecast is shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast\r\nbeyond the 24 hour period to coincide with a blend of the GFEX and\r\nTVCE consensus models.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on earlier ASCAT\r\noverpasses.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 18.3N 109.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 18.7N 110.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 19.3N 111.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 19.9N 112.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 20.4N 114.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 21.6N 117.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 AM MDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nDolores has stopped strengthening for the moment, with some warming\r\nof the convective tops noted within the northern semicircle since\r\nthe last advisory.  Although Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and\r\nSAB fell to 5.5, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt\r\nbased on the CI numbers.  Low vertical wind shear and very warm\r\nocean waters should support additional strengthening during the next\r\n12-24 hours, and the official forecast keeps Dolores as a category 4\r\nhurricane during this period.  Weakening is expected after 24 hours,\r\npredominantly due to gradually cooler waters and a more stable\r\nenvironment.  The NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of the\r\nguidance during the first 48 hours and then close to the IVCN\r\nconsensus thereafter.  As will be discussed below, Dolores's\r\nforecast track has been shifting southward, which would keep the\r\ncyclone over warmer water and possibly result in slower or delayed\r\nweakening.\r\n\r\nDolores's eye wobbled westward recently, but a longer-term motion\r\nis 290/5 kt.  A mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico\r\nshould propel Dolores west-northwestward or even westward during\r\nthe next 72 hours.  After that time, there are some model\r\ndifferences regarding the strength of the ridge and whether Dolores\r\nwill turn northwestward by the end of the forecast period.  At the\r\nextremes, the GFS maintains a strong ridge and keeps Dolores to the\r\nsouth, while the ECMWF weakens the ridge off the California coast\r\nand allows Dolores to turn northward.  Despite these differences,\r\nthe overall guidance envelope has continued to shift southward, and\r\nthe updated NHC track forecast follows that trend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 18.4N 110.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 18.8N 111.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 19.4N 112.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 19.8N 113.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 20.0N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 20.9N 118.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 25.5N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nConvective tops have been warming very gradually around Dolores's\r\neye since this morning.  Satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB are\r\nT5.5/6.0, and given the infrared satellite trends, the initial\r\nintensity is lowered slightly to 110 kt.  Dolores is moving over\r\nvery warm 29-30 degrees Celsius water, but it will soon be\r\ntraversing a tight SST gradient once it passes Socorro Island.\r\nThus, the hurricane only has a small window to re-intensify before\r\nreaching colder water.  Gradual weakening is now forecast during the\r\nnext 24 hours, followed by faster weakening for the remainder of the\r\nforecast period.  This forecast is very close to a blend of the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM models, especially early in the forecast period, and\r\nis lower than the previous forecasts since Dolores has not\r\nrestrengthened.\r\n\r\nDolores is located to the southwest of a mid-level anticyclone, and\r\nthe initial motion estimate is 290/5 kt.  A ridge is expected to\r\nbuild westward from the anticyclone during the next couple of days,\r\nwhich should force Dolores to turn westward by 48 hours.  After\r\nthat time, there remains a notable spread in the track guidance,\r\nwith the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL showing a sharper turn toward the\r\nnorth and the GFS and HWRF keeping the cyclone farther south.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the right\r\nand lies about midway between the previous forecast and the various\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 18.7N 110.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 19.2N 111.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 19.7N 112.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 20.1N 114.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 20.3N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 21.9N 119.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 24.5N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 28.0N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nDolores appears to be gradually losing strength, but it is still a\r\nmajor hurricane.  Although the eye of the hurricane remains quite\r\ndistinct, satellite images indicate that cloud tops in the eyewall\r\nhave warmed some during the past several hours.  The latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT support lowering\r\nthe initial intensity to 100 kt. Dolores is expected to remain over\r\nwarm water and in relatively favorable atmospheric conditions for\r\nabout another 24 hours.  Therefore, little change in strength is\r\nforecast during that time.  Afterwards Dolores is expected to move\r\nover cooler water and into an environment of stronger shear and\r\ndrier air.  These unfavorable conditions should cause a steady\r\nweakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely just an update of\r\nthe previous one and is in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe eye of the hurricane has been wobbling around quite a bit.\r\nSmoothing through the oscillations yields an initial motion estimate\r\nof 300/05 kt.  The subtropical ridge that is currently providing the\r\nsteering for Dolores is expected to build westward during the next\r\ncouple of days.  This pattern change should cause the cyclone to\r\nturn more toward the west with an increase in forward speed during\r\nthe next 48 hours. Dolores is expected to reach the western\r\nperiphery of the ridge in a few days, and that should cause the\r\ncyclone to turn northwestward well to the west of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula. The latest guidance has generally shifted a\r\nlittle to the northeast, and the official track forecast has been\r\nadjusted in that direction. This forecast is in good agreement with\r\na consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 19.1N 110.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 19.6N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 20.1N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 20.5N 114.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 20.9N 116.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 23.0N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 26.2N 122.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 29.0N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nEnhanced B-D curve infrared and microwave imagery show that Dolores\r\nis exhibiting annular hurricane characteristics this morning, with\r\nits distinctly symmetric, thick eyewall donut-shaped appearance,\r\nlarge 30 nmi eye, and a lack of well-defined rainbands.  Decreasing\r\n26-28C sea surface temperatures and light southeasterly shear appear\r\nto be promoting Dolores' cloud pattern.  For this advisory, the\r\ninitial intensity is held at 100 kt based on a blend of subjective\r\nand objective satellite intensity estimates.  Because of Dolores'\r\nannular structure, only slight weakening is expected through the\r\n36 hour period.  Afterward, a sharp decrease in SSTs, a more stable\r\nthermodynamic environment, and increasing vertical shear should\r\ncause the cyclone to weaken more quickly.\r\n\r\nAfter smoothing out the trochoidal oscillations, the long-term\r\nmotion is estimated to be 300/6.  There is no significant change to\r\nthe track forecast philosophy.  Dolores should continue to be\r\nsteered by the flow produced by the building subtropical ridge and\r\nmove on a west-northwestward to an eventual northwestward heading\r\naround the western periphery of the anticyclone.  Much uncertainty\r\nand large spread exists in the guidance suite beyond 72 hours.\r\nGlobal and hurricane models either show a turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest in response to the building ridge or, a northwest to\r\nnorth-northwest track due to a mid- to upper-level trough\r\napproaching from the northwest.  The NHC forecast basically splits\r\nthese two solutions and follows the GFEX and TVCN multi-models, and\r\nis a little to the right of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 19.5N 111.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 20.0N 112.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.6N 113.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 21.0N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 24.5N 120.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 28.0N 122.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 30.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 AM MDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nCloud tops have actually cooled around Dolores's eye during the\r\npast few hours, with a black ring completely encircling the eye in\r\nthe infrared Dvorak enhancement.  This would suggest that weakening\r\nis not occurring at the moment, and the initial intensity is held\r\nat 100 kt.  Dolores has another 24 hours or so before it reaches\r\nsub-26C water, and given the hurricane's marginal annular structure,\r\nonly gradual weakening is anticipated in the short term.  Much\r\ncolder water, increasing shear, and a drier, more stable environment\r\nshould induce a faster rate of weakening after 24 hours, and Dolores\r\ncould become a tropical storm within 48 hours.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to be a remnant low by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models for the first 36\r\nhours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter.  The\r\nSHIPS and LGEM dissipate the system by day 4 or 5, which seems\r\nunrealistic given that the global models maintain a cyclone for the\r\nentire forecast period.\r\n\r\nDolores has been moving northwestward, or 305/6 kt, but it should\r\nturn west-northwestward soon as a mid-level ridge axis builds\r\nwestward from northern Mexico.  A turn back to the northwest and\r\nthen north-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected\r\nbeyond 48 hours once Dolores reaches the western periphery of the\r\nridge.  The GFS and ECMWF models are in much better agreement than\r\nthey were yesterday, and the main outliers on this cycle are the\r\nUKMET and GFDL, which seem too far to the east.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast remains near the GFS-ECMWF consensus and is not much\r\ndifferent from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 19.9N 111.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 20.3N 113.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 21.3N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 22.3N 117.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 25.6N 120.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 29.5N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 30.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nDolores's satellite presentation is slowly deteriorating.  Cloud\r\ntops have been warming since the last advisory, and visible and\r\nmicrowave imagery indicate that dry air is wrapping into the\r\ncirculation.  The intensity is estimated to have decreased to 90 kt\r\nbased on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT.  Progressively cooler water, a drier and more stable\r\nenvironment, and increasing shear in about three days will all\r\ncontribute to continued weakening through the entire forecast\r\nperiod.  The intensity models are in good agreement on the rate of\r\nweakening during the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast\r\nis very close to the IVCN intensity consensus.  Due to the\r\nincreasingly hostile environment, Dolores could become a remnant\r\nlow by day 4.\r\n\r\nDolores has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n300/7 kt.  A building mid-level ridge to the northeast should keep\r\nthe cyclone moving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours,\r\nfollowed by a turn to the northwest and north-northwest once Dolores\r\nreaches the western periphery of the ridge.  The GFDL remains an\r\neastern outlier after 36 hours, but otherwise the rest of the models\r\nare in very good agreement on Dolores's future track. The NHC track\r\nforecast is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF, and no major\r\nchanges from the previous forecast were required on this cycle.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 20.2N 112.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 20.6N 113.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 21.7N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 23.0N 118.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 26.8N 121.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 30.0N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1800Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nDolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a\r\nsignificant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the\r\nwestern semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the\r\neyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted\r\ndown to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the\r\ninitial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a\r\nnoticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which\r\nwas likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has\r\ndeveloped. However, this should just be a short term motion and a\r\nturn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and\r\nthen continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is\r\nforecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores\r\nskirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that\r\nextends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico\r\nand Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the\r\nprevious advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly\r\ninitial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE\r\nand the FSSE model.\r\n\r\nDolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during\r\nthe 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or\r\nso and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result\r\nshould be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along\r\nwith steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low\r\npressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows\r\nthe ICON intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dolores","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n300 AM MDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Dolores has continued to deteriorate, with an\r\neye no longer apparent, and the coverage and intensity of deep\r\nconvection on the wane.  The current intensity estimate is 70 kt\r\nwhich is a blend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  This may\r\nbe generous, considering the data T-numbers from these agencies.\r\nThe tropical cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler sea\r\nsurface temperatures over the next few days, and into a more stable\r\nair mass.  Additionally, the dynamical guidance shows a significant\r\nincrease in vertical shear over Dolores in 48 to 72 hours.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast shows a steady weakening trend, but is\r\nstill somewhat higher than the latest intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nWith the eye no longer discernible, the center has become more\r\ndifficult to track.  The initial motion estimate is a somewhat\r\nuncertain 295/9.  Over the next several days, Dolores is expected to\r\nmove along the southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge extending from the southwestern United States.\r\nLate in the forecast period, the cyclone is forecast to become\r\nsteered by a cyclonic gyre to the southwest of southern California,\r\nand to move in a counterclockwise fashion.  The official track\r\nforecast is near the dynamical model consensus and is similar to the\r\nprevious NHC forecast.  This is also between the latest GFS and\r\nECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 21.2N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 21.4N 115.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 22.0N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 23.5N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 25.3N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 29.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 30.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0600Z 29.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":25,"Date":"2015-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of Dolores is now over water colder than 26C, and deep\r\nconvection continues to gradually wane.  Dvorak CI numbers ranged\r\nfrom 55-77 kt at 1200 UTC, and the advisory intensity is set at 60\r\nkt, which is in agreement with the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nestimate.  Steady weakening is expected to continue due to even\r\ncolder water and an increase in vertical shear in about 48 hours,\r\nand Dolores is likely to become a remnant low in a few days.\r\nDissipation is now forecast by day 5 based on the latest global\r\nmodel guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/8 kt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge\r\nextending from northern Mexico westward over the Pacific Ocean\r\nshould continue steering Dolores west-northwestward through\r\ntonight.  Starting on Saturday, the cyclone will accelerate\r\nnorthwestward and north-northwestward around the western periphery\r\nof the ridge.  By day 4, the remnant low will likely become nearly\r\nstationary well southwest of southern California due to weak\r\nlow-level steering flow.  The NHC track forecast is close to the\r\nmodel consensus and is not much different from the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 21.4N 115.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 21.9N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 22.9N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 24.7N 119.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 26.8N 120.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 30.7N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 31.0N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":26,"Date":"2015-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nDolores is producing a patch of deep convection to the west and\r\nnorthwest of its low-level center.  The maximum winds continue to\r\ndecrease, and the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt based on a\r\nblend of the decreasing Dvorak CI numbers.  A 1656 UTC ASCAT-B pass\r\nshowed a swath of 40-45 kt winds northwest of the center, and given\r\nthe instrument's resolution, it is possible that a small area of\r\n50-kt winds could still be occurring within the deep convection.\r\nColder water and increasing shear in the next 24-48 hours are\r\nexpected to lead to further steady weakening, and Dolores is\r\nforecast to become a tropical depression by 36 hours and a remnant\r\nlow by day 3.  The official intensity forecast is near the\r\nintensity consensus.  However, the recent rate of weakening has\r\nbeen faster than expected, and Dolores could become a remnant low\r\nsooner than shown below.\r\n\r\nDolores appears to have jogged westward today, and the longer-term\r\nmotion is 285/9 kt.  The cyclone will be approaching the western\r\nperiphery of the subtropical ridge during the next day or so, which\r\nwill cause it to turn northwestward and then north-northwestward by\r\n48 hours.  Once Dolores becomes a remnant low, weak low-level\r\nsteering should cause it to become nearly stationary on day 4 well\r\nsouthwest of the southern California coast.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast has been shifted slightly eastward, but still lies west of\r\nthe TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 21.3N 116.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 21.9N 117.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 23.3N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 25.2N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 27.5N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 30.6N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 31.0N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":27,"Date":"2015-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe coverage and intensity of deep convection associated with\r\nDolores continues to wane, with only patchy areas of cloud tops\r\ncolder than -50C remaining.  The initial intensity has been lowered\r\nto 40 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective\r\nDvorak estimates.  With the cyclone moving over steadily decreasing\r\nSSTs during the next couple of days, continued weakening is forecast\r\nand Dolores is now expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours,\r\nalthough this could occur even sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/09. The track forecast reasoning\r\nis unchanged, as the cyclone will be moving around the western\r\nperiphery of the subtropical ridge, resulting in a turn toward the\r\nnorthwest and north-northwest in the next 24 hours. After Dolores\r\nbecomes a remnant low, the system is forecast to turn northward and\r\nthen move slowly prior to dissipation in the weak low-level flow\r\nwell southwest of the coast of southern California. The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is very close to the previous one and continues to\r\nlie a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 21.8N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 22.5N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 24.2N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 26.2N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 28.3N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 30.7N 121.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 31.0N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":28,"Date":"2015-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015\r\n\r\nDolores' cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.\r\nThe cyclone has been maintaining a small area of relatively shallow\r\nconvection southwest of the partially exposed low-level center.  An\r\nASCAT pass at 0454 UTC showed peak winds of 34-kt winds over the\r\nwestern part of the circulation, and it is assumed that higher winds\r\nare still occurring closer to the center.  The initial wind speed is\r\nheld at 40 kt to be consistent with the earlier ASCAT pass.  The\r\ncyclone is temporarily passing over a narrow tongue of relatively\r\nwarmer water but should reach much colder waters within the next 12\r\nto 24 hours. Once this occurs, Dolores should lose any remaining\r\nconvection and become a post-tropical remnant low in another day or\r\nso.  The large circulation will take some time to spin down even\r\nwithout convection, so the NHC intensity forecast shows a gradual\r\ndecay, similar to the global models and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/09. Global models show Dolores\r\nturning northwestward and north-northwestward within 24 hours as it\r\nis steered between a subtropical ridge over the southern United\r\nStates and a mid- to upper-level trough offshore the California\r\ncoast.  Once the cyclone fully decouples and becomes shallow, it\r\nshould decelerate and move northward or northeastward in the low-\r\nlevel flow prior to dissipation.  The new track forecast is nudged\r\njust a bit to the right of the previous one to be closer to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Dolores should spread into southern and\r\ncentral California late this weekend and early next week, possibly\r\ntriggering isolated areas of heavy rains across the region.  Please\r\nrefer to statements from your local weather office for information\r\non hazards specific to your area.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 21.9N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 22.8N 118.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 25.0N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 27.4N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 29.5N 120.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 31.3N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":29,"Date":"2015-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015\r\n\r\nDolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from\r\nthe remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the\r\nwarmer water to the south.  Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt,\r\nand the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt.\r\nCold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current\r\nweakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24\r\nhours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates.  The\r\nremnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern\r\nCalifornia coast.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS\r\nand the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN).\r\n\r\nDolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between\r\na subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough\r\nwest of California.  The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward\r\nthe north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift\r\nnorthward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak\r\nlow-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of\r\nthe previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for\r\nthe recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very\r\nsimilar after 24 hours.  This solution is very close to the\r\nGFS-ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the\r\nsouthwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the\r\npossibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of\r\nArizona, southern California, and southern Nevada.  Please refer to\r\nstatements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for\r\nmore information.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dolores","Adv":30,"Date":"2015-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015\r\n\r\nASCAT scatterometer data indicate that Dolores still has a band of\r\ntropical storm force winds within its eastern semicircle, and the\r\ninitial intensity remains 35 kt.  However, deep convection continues\r\nto weaken, and the center of the cyclone is now over sea surface\r\ntemperatures between 22 and 23 degrees Celsius.  Maximum surface\r\nwinds should gradually decrease as the circulation spins down, and\r\nDolores could be a remnant low within 12 hours if it does not\r\nregenerate deep convection near the center.  Most of the global\r\nmodels then show the remnant low degenerating into a trough off the\r\ncoast of southern California by day 3, and dissipation is indicated\r\nin the official forecast at that time.\r\n\r\nDolores is now moving north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt, around the\r\nwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected\r\nto steer the remnant low north-northwestward and then northward\r\nuntil dissipation.  The track guidance envelope has shifted a bit\r\neastward, and the official forecast follows that trend, lying just\r\nto the west of the various multi-model consensus solutions.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern\r\nUnited States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and\r\nflash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,\r\nsouthern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah.  Please\r\nrefer to statements from your local weather office at\r\nwww.weather.gov for more information.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 24.3N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 25.7N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 28.4N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 30.8N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 32.2N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Dolores","Adv":31,"Date":"2015-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP052015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015\r\n\r\nDolores has been without organized deep convection for 12 hours, and\r\nthe center is now more than 150 miles away from the remaining\r\nshallow to moderate convection.  Based on the lack of convective\r\norganization, Dolores is now a post-tropical remnant low and this\r\nwill be the last NHC advisory.  With even colder waters ahead,\r\nthe remnant low should gradually spin down and dissipate in 2 or 3\r\ndays offshore of southern California.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 335/14, as the cyclone has accelerated since\r\nthe previous advisory.  Dolores should continue moving north-\r\nnorthwestward around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge\r\nand then turn northward and decelerate prior to dissipation.  The\r\nnew NHC track forecast is along but faster than the previous one and\r\nis close to the latest ECMWF and GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with Dolores is spreading over the southwestern\r\nUnited States and will increase the possibility of heavy rains and\r\nflash flooding during the next few days over portions of Arizona,\r\nsouthern California, southern Nevada, and southwestern Utah.  Please\r\nrefer to statements from your local National Weather Service office\r\nat www.weather.gov for more information.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 25.6N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 27.5N 119.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 30.2N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 32.1N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 33.3N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-07-12 16:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n900 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015\r\n\r\nConvection associated with the area of low pressure located\r\nwell southwest of the southern tip of Baja California has become\r\nbetter organized since yesterday, with a band now wrapping around\r\nthe western semicircle of the system.  Overnight scatterometer data\r\nand early morning visible satellite pictures indicate that the\r\ncirculation has become sufficiently well defined, therefore\r\nadvisories are being initiated on the sixth tropical depression of\r\nthe 2015 eastern Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity\r\nis set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with a TAFB Dvorak\r\nclassification of 2.0.\r\n\r\nThe depression is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low\r\nshear environment during the next few days, however, drier and more\r\nstable air to the northwest of the cyclone may prevent significant\r\nintensification.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual\r\nstrengthening during the next few days, and is in best agreement\r\nwith the SHIPS guidance.  The cyclone is expected to move over\r\ncooler waters which should induce some weakening at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/6.  The depression is\r\nforecast to turn west-northwestward as a ridge builds to its north\r\nduring the next day or two.  After that time, the cyclone should\r\nmaintain a general westward to west-northwestward track.  Later in\r\nthe period, global models suggest that the steering flow should\r\nweaken around the depression as Dolores' circulation approaches from\r\nthe west.  This pattern should cause the depression's forward speed\r\nto decrease.  Although the track guidance is in general agreement\r\nwith this scenario, there is some spread in how much latitude the\r\ndepression will gain during the next couple of days.  The NHC track\r\nis closest to the GFS ensemble mean, which is a little south of the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1600Z 13.6N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 15.6N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 16.3N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 16.8N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 17.8N 136.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 18.2N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective structure of the tropical cyclone has improved\r\nsomewhat today, with a band of deep convection wrapping around the\r\nsouth and southwestern portions of the circulation.  Although Dvorak\r\ndata T-numbers have increased to T2.5 from both agencies, a recent\r\nASCAT pass suggests that the system is still below tropical storm\r\nstrength.  Environmental conditions consisting of warm water and low\r\nvertical wind shear should allow for strengthening during the next\r\ncouple of days.  The primary inhibiting factor appears to be some\r\ndrier and more stable air to the north and northwest of the\r\ncyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and is in close agreement with the SHIPS guidance during\r\nthe first 48 hours.  After that time, increasing southerly shear,\r\ncooler waters, and a more stable airmass are expected to cause\r\nweakening.\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images indicate that the initial position of\r\nthe cyclone is a little south of the previous estimate.  As a\r\nresult, the initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 300/6.  The\r\ndepression is expected to move on a general west-northwest to\r\nnorthwest heading during the next several days while it remains to\r\nthe south of a narrow mid-level ridge.  Near the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, the global models continue to show weakening of the steering\r\nflow over the far eastern Pacific as the large circulation of\r\nDolores approaches from the east.  This is likely to cause\r\nthe cyclone's forward speed to decrease.  The track guidance remains\r\nin agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is close to the\r\nGFS ensemble mean, and just south of the model consensus.  The new\r\nNHC track is a little south of the previous advisory due to the more\r\nsouthward initial position.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 13.6N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 14.5N 127.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 15.3N 128.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 15.9N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 16.4N 130.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 17.0N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 18.0N 135.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 18.3N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 12 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the\r\nlast several hours.  Deep convection remains mainly confined to a\r\ncurved band to the south of the center and in an area over the\r\nnortheastern quadrant. Although the latest Dvorak classifications\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB support raising the intensity to minimal tropical\r\nstorm strength, 35 kt, I am maintaining the wind speed at 30 kt\r\nbased on the steady state nature of the system since the ASCAT pass\r\nearlier today.\r\n\r\nThe depression has wobbled northward over the past few hours, but a\r\nlonger term motion is west-northwestward at 5 kt.  A slightly\r\nfaster west-northwestward to northwestward motion is predicted\r\nduring the next 3 to 4 days while the cyclone is steered by a\r\nnarrow mid-level ridge.  Beyond that time, the system is expected\r\nto slow down when the steering currents collapse due to the\r\napproach of Dolores to its east.  The NHC track forecast has been\r\nnudged to the north of the previous one, primarily to account for\r\nthe more northward initial position.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has an opportunity to strengthen during the next\r\ncouple of days while it remains in low wind shear conditions and\r\nover relatively warm water.  There does appear to be a fair amount\r\nof stable air to the north of the system, however, and that could\r\nlimit the amount of intensification that occurs.  Beyond 48 hours,\r\nthe cyclone is expected to move over cooler water and into a drier\r\nair mass.  These conditions should provoke weakening.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and is in best\r\nagreement with the SHIPS model.  It is worth noting that none of the\r\nintensity guidance shows much strengthening of the system.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 14.0N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 15.0N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 15.7N 128.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 16.4N 129.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 17.7N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 18.5N 136.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 18.6N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the cyclone has become a bit better\r\norganized with a growing curved band in the southern semicircle and\r\nmore persistent convection near the center. Given the improved\r\nsatellite presentation and the 35-kt Dvorak estimates, I've elected\r\nto upgrade the depression to Enrique for this advisory.  The\r\ntropical storm has a day or two to strengthen before it moves into\r\nan area of cooler SSTs, drier air, and higher vertical wind shear.\r\nMost of the guidance support some intensification, so the intensity\r\nforecast will remain close to the previous one, on the higher side\r\nof the model envelope.\r\n\r\nAfter a bit of a northward jump, Enrique appears to be moving\r\nnorthwestward at about 9 kt.  The track should gradually bend back\r\nto the west-northwest over the next couple of days while the storm\r\nis steered by a building mid-level ridge. The long-range forecast is\r\nrather uncertain due to possible interactions with both Dolores to\r\nthe east and a mid-latitude trough to the north.  Overall, the\r\nguidance has shifted north and west at most of the forecast points,\r\nand the NHC track prediction follows suit, lying near or just to the\r\nsoutheast of the consensus at most forecast times.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 15.2N 126.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 16.1N 127.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 16.8N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 17.4N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 17.8N 131.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 19.3N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nEnrique's convective structure consists of a large band that wraps\r\nabout halfway around the cyclone in its southern semicircle.  Unlike\r\nthe convectively uninhibited nature of Tropical Storm Dolores to its\r\neast, the showers and thunderstorm activity of Enrique have warmer\r\ncloud tops and the band is somewhat fragmented.  As the TAFB, SAB,\r\nand ADT Dvorak classifications remain unchanged at 2.5, the\r\nintensity for Enrique remains 35 kt.\r\n\r\nIt appears that Enrique will continue to be convectively challenged\r\nas the atmosphere in which it is embedded has limited\r\nthermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below 26.5\r\ndeg C in less than two days.  Additionally, the vertical shear -\r\nwhich is low now - is anticipated to increase to 10-15 kt out of the\r\nsouth in about two days, as Enrique reaches the western periphery of\r\nan upper-level high.  The combination of these effects should result\r\nin gradual weakening of the cyclone after about two days and\r\nthe system becoming a remnant low in about five days.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is closest to the GHMI dynamical model - the\r\nmodel that anticipates the most development - but the NHC prediction\r\nrepresents a modest reduction from the forecast issued previously.\r\n\r\nEnrique is moving toward the north-northwest at about 9 kt,\r\nprimarily due to a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The dynamical\r\nmodels have been unanimously in agreement that Enrique should have\r\nalready taken a west-northwestward turn, which the cyclone has\r\nstubbornly resisted thus far.  Once such a turn does materialize,\r\nEnrique should move toward the west-northwest at about the same\r\nrate of speed for about three to four days.  After that time,\r\nit is anticipated that Enrique's movement should decrease as the\r\nsteering flow weakens.  The official track forecast is north of the\r\nconsensus at 12 and 24 hours due to the continued right-of-track\r\nmovement currently occurring and then close to the TVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus thereafter.  This NHC prediction is consistently north of\r\nthat from the previous advisory because of the continued\r\nunanticipated northerly movement of Enrique currently.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 15.9N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 16.9N 127.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 17.6N 128.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 17.9N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 18.3N 132.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 19.1N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 20.0N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nThe main convective band around Enrique is becoming increasingly\r\nfragmented.  Despite this, Dvorak current intensity estimates from\r\nADT, TAFB, and SAB remain at minimal tropical storm strength. Thus\r\nEnrique's maximum winds are assessed at 35 kt.  A partial pass by\r\nthe ASCAT-B scatterometer indicated that the tropical-storm-force\r\nwinds, if they exist, are within no more than 60 nm from the center.\r\n\r\nIt appears that Enrique will continue to have difficult maintaining\r\norganized convection, as the atmosphere in which it is embedded has\r\nlimited thermodynamical instability, and the SSTs should drop below\r\n26.5 deg C in less than two days.  Additionally, the vertical shear\r\n- which is low now - is anticipated to increase to about 15 kt\r\nout of the south in about 36 hours, as Enrique reaches the\r\nwestern periphery of an upper-level high.  The combination of these\r\neffects should result in gradual weakening of the cyclone after\r\na day or two and the system becoming a remnant low in about\r\nfour days.  The official intensity forecast is based upon the\r\nmultimodel consensus technique - IVCN - and is reduced somewhat from\r\nthe previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nEnrique is moving toward the northwest at about 10 kt, primarily due\r\nto a deep-layer ridge to its north.  The dynamical models have been\r\nunanimously in agreement that Enrique should have already taken a\r\nwest-northwestward turn, which has not yet materialized today.  It\r\nis possible though that in the last couple of hours that Enrique has\r\nbegun this turn toward the west-northwest.  After moving toward the\r\nwest-northwest at about the same rate of speed for the next\r\nthree to four days, it is anticipated that Enrique's movement as a\r\nremnant low should slow as the lower tropospheric steering flow\r\nweakens. The reliable dynamical models are tightly clustered on this\r\nscenario. The official track forecast is based upon the multimodel\r\nconsensus technique - TVCN - and is slightly north of the predicted\r\ntrack from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 16.7N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 17.4N 128.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 18.1N 130.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 18.4N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 18.8N 132.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 20.0N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 20.5N 137.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 13 2015\r\n\r\nEnrique continues to produce a limited amount of deep convection,\r\nlikely due to the stable air mass that it is embedded within.\r\nSatellite images show a small area of thunderstorms just north of\r\nthe center and a more organized band over the northeastern\r\nquadrant.  The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt, but Dvorak\r\nT-numbers suggest that this could be generous.  Little change in\r\nstrength is expected during the next day or two.  After that time,\r\nhowever, weakening is forecast when the storm moves over water\r\ncooler than 26 C and into an environment of higher wind shear.  The\r\nintensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, and is\r\nin good agreement with the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe storm has made the expected turn to the left, and the latest\r\ninitial motion estimate is 290/8 kt.  A continued west-northwestward\r\nmotion at about the same speed is predicted for the next 2 to 3 days\r\nwhile Enrique remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge.  After\r\nthat time, a considerable slowdown is expected, when the steering\r\ncurrents collapse in response to Hurricane Dolores to the east and a\r\ndeep-layer trough extending southwestward from the west coast of\r\nthe United States.  The new NHC track forecast is a little south of\r\nthe previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 16.8N 128.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 17.3N 129.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 17.9N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 18.3N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 18.8N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 19.9N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 20.0N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0000Z 19.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Enrique has increased in coverage\r\novernight, however, the overall organization of the system has not\r\nchanged appreciably.  A recent ASCAT overpass was very helpful in\r\nlocating the center, and indicated that the maximum winds remain\r\nnear 35 kt.  Little change in intensity is forecast during the next\r\nday or so. After that time, Enrique is expected to weaken while it\r\nmoves into an area of increasing southerly wind shear and over\r\ncooler waters.  The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low in\r\nabout 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/8 kt. Enrique is expected to\r\ncontinue on a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of\r\ndays to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days, the\r\ncyclone is forecast to decelerate as the low-level steering flow\r\nweakens over the far eastern Pacific due to the approach of Dolores'\r\nlarge circulation.  The updated NHC track forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory, but shows the remnant low becoming nearly\r\nstationary a bit east of the previous 4- and 5-day positions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 17.3N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 17.7N 130.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 18.2N 131.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.8N 132.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 20.3N 136.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 20.3N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z 19.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nThe center is now embedded within the deep convection, which, in\r\nfact, has increased during the past several hours. The upper-level\r\noutflow has also expanded westward and became better defined.\r\nConsequently, the Dvorak numbers are a little higher at 1200 UTC.\r\nData from ASCAT indicate that the cyclone's intensity is 40 kt, and\r\nthese winds are confined to a small area to the north and east of\r\nthe center. Enrique is now crossing a small tongue of warm waters,\r\nand this probably caused the slight increase in organization. Soon,\r\nthe circulation will move over cooler waters, and on this basis, the\r\nNHC forecast calls for little change in strength today with a\r\ngradual weakening thereafter. The cyclone is forecast to become a\r\nremnant low in about 72 hours or sooner.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 305/8 kt. The cyclone is\r\nis forecast to continue on a track between the northwest and the\r\nwest-northwest during the next couple of days, steered by the\r\nflow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge. In about 3 days,\r\nthese steering currents are forecast to collapse due to the approach\r\nof the larger circulation of Dolores, and most likely, Enrique\r\nwill meander until dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 18.1N 129.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 18.3N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.5N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 20.0N 134.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 20.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 20.5N 136.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z 20.3N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nWhile Enrique moved over a tongue of warm water, the cloud pattern\r\nbecame a little better organized. It now consists of a small central\r\ndense overcast surrounded by a cyclonically curved convective band.\r\nThe upper-level outflow remains well defined primarily on the\r\nwestern semicircle.  A recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds are\r\nat least 40 kt, and since Dvorak T-numbers from all agencies have\r\nincreased to T3.0, the initial intensity is now 45 kt.\r\n\r\nIn about 12 to 24 hours, the circulation will be over cooler\r\nwaters, and gradual weakening should begin. The shear is forecast\r\nto increase, adding to the weakening process, and Enrique should\r\nbecome a remnant low in 3 days or sooner.\r\n\r\nEnrique is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8\r\nkt, steered by the flow to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge.\r\nGlobal models indicate that in about 3 days, the steering currents\r\nwill collapse due to the approach of the larger circulation of\r\nDolores, and most likely Enrique will meander until dissipation.\r\nThis NHC track is consistent with the consensus of the GFS and the\r\nECMWF models primarily during the next 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 18.4N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 18.8N 131.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 19.5N 133.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 20.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 21.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z 20.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2015\r\n\r\nEnrique has not changed much during the last several hours.  The\r\ncyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast and rain\r\nbands over the northern portion of the circulation.  The initial\r\nintensity is held at 45 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  Enrique is\r\nheaded for cooler water, and it should have crossed the 26 C\r\nisotherm by Wednesday morning.  These cool waters combined with an\r\nincreasingly more stable air mass and southwesterly shear should\r\ncause steady weakening.  Enrique will likely become a remnant low\r\nin 2 to 3 days.  The intensity models are in good agreement, and\r\nthis forecast is close to the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe storm continues moving west-northwestward at about 8 kt.  This\r\nmotion is expected to continue during the next couple of days while\r\nthe system remains steered by a narrow mid-level ridge.  After that\r\ntime, the cyclone is forecast to decelerate and then drift southward\r\nwhen the steering currents collapse as Hurricane Dolores approaches\r\nfrom the east.  This track forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand is close to the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on an ASCAT\r\npass from earlier today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 18.7N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 19.2N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 19.8N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 20.4N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 20.9N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 21.0N 136.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 20.5N 136.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z 20.2N 136.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nMicrowave images during the evening indicate that Enrique's\r\ncirculation is tilted with the low-level center located near the\r\nsouthern portion of the main convective mass.  This is due to\r\nmoderate south-southwesterly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model\r\nand a UW/CIMSS shear analysis.  A blend of the latest satellite\r\nintensity estimates still support an initial intensity of 45 kt.\r\nThe moderate southerly shear and decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures along the forecast track should result in gradual\r\nweakening during the next couple of days, and Enrique is expected\r\nto become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/8 kt. The storm should continue\r\nto move west-northwestward to the south of a narrow mid-level ridge\r\nduring the next day or two.  After 48 hours, the large circulation\r\nof Hurricane Dolores is expected to cause the steering currents to\r\nweaken over the far eastern Pacific.  This should result in a\r\nreduction in Enrique's forward speed, and a southward drift later\r\nin the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory through 48 hours, and has been adjusted a little\r\nwestward thereafter, to be in better agreement with the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 18.8N 132.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 19.3N 133.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 20.0N 134.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 20.6N 135.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 20.9N 136.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 19.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z 19.3N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the cloud pattern is a little less\r\norganized than yesterday while microwave data show that Enrique's\r\ncirculation continues to be tilted. The low-level center remains\r\nlocated on the southern edge of the weakening deep convection.\r\nDvorak T-numbers from all agencies are lower than earlier, and the\r\nbest estimate of the initial intensity is 40 kt.   The circulation\r\nis already moving over 25 degree Celsius waters.  Most of the\r\nguidance shows weakening and then dissipation in about 48 hours,\r\nand so does the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nEnrique has been moving on a steady west-northwest track or 300\r\ndegrees at 7 kt steered by the flow to the south of a narrow\r\nsubtropical ridge. As Enrique weakens further and the steering flow\r\ncollapses, the cyclone should begin to drift westward or meander\r\nuntil dissipation. The NHC forecast and track guidance are in good\r\nagreement primarily during the next to 36 to 48 hours while Enrique\r\nis still expected to be a tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 19.0N 132.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 19.5N 133.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 20.2N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 20.7N 136.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 20.0N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 19.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nEnrique's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the\r\nupper-level outflow has become poorly defined. The area of deep\r\nconvection has shrunk while the low-level center remains located on\r\nthe southern edge of the thunderstorm activity.  The latest Dvorak\r\nestimates support lowering the initial intensity to 35 kt. Enrique\r\nis already over relatively cool waters and additional weakening is\r\nforecast, with the system becoming a remnant low by 48 hours. In\r\nfact, the SHIPS model, as well as the intensity model consensus,\r\ndissipate the cyclone in 36 hours or so.\r\n\r\nEnrique is still moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees\r\nat 7 knots. However, the narrow ridge to the north is forecast to\r\nweaken in a day or two and the steering currents are expected to\r\ncollapse. This steering pattern will likely keep Enrique and its\r\nremnants moving slowly toward the west-northwest or west,\r\naccompanied by a decrease in forward speed, until dissipation\r\noccurs in 4 or 5 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 19.0N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 19.5N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 20.3N 135.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 20.7N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 20.6N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 15 2015\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous track or intensity forecast reasonings. For\r\nthe next 96-120 hours, Enrique is forecast to remain in a sheared\r\nenvironment while it moves slowly west-northwestward to westward\r\nalong the south side of a weakening mid-level ridge, and gradually\r\nweaken as the cyclone moves over sub-25C SSTs and into a much drier\r\nairmass.\r\n\r\nEnrique is forecast to become a tropical depression on Thursday and\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low by Friday, after which the weak and\r\nvertically shallow cyclone could drift southward or stall due to\r\nweakening steering currents. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical\r\nintensity model shows Enrique completely dissipating by 36 hours.\r\nHowever, the tropical cyclone possesses a fairly large circulation,\r\nwhich should take a longer-than-average amount of time to spin down.\r\nAs such, the solution of the GFS and ECMWF models holding onto the\r\nremnant low through at least 96 hours has been preferred in this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 19.2N 134.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 19.8N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 20.3N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 20.5N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 20.3N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 19.7N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective organization of Enrique continues to wane with\r\nthe remaining thunderstorm activity located well to the north\r\nof the center.  A couple of recent partial ASCAT passes\r\nshowed winds to near 35-kt, so Enrique remains a tropical\r\nstorm for this advisory.  Gradual weakening is expected during the\r\nnext couple of days while the cyclone moves over cool water and\r\nin an environment of moderate south-southwesterly shear.  Enrique\r\nis forecast to become a remnant low within a day or so.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/6. A slow west-northwestward\r\nmotion should continue for another 24 hours, before steering\r\ncurrents weaken and the cyclone turns westward and slows down.\r\nMost of the global models take the remnant low slowly\r\nwest-southwestward, then southward in a few days.  The latest NHC\r\ntrack is close to the previous advisory and the GFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 19.5N 134.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 19.9N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.4N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 20.4N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 20.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nWhile the convection associated with Enrique continues to decrease,\r\ndata from the RapidScat instrument on the International Space\r\nStation suggest the system still had tropical storm force winds\r\nnear 1100 UTC.  Based on these data as well as Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 35 kt.\r\nEnrique is encountering cool sea surface temperatures and a drier\r\nair mass, and this combination should lead to the the cyclone's\r\ndissipation. Unless the convection makes an unexpected return,\r\nEnrique should weaken to a depression during the next several hours\r\nand degenerate into a remnant low in 24-36 hours, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/7. A slow west-northwestward motion should\r\ncontinue for another 24 hours or so.  After that, steering currents\r\nweaken, and the cyclone should turn westward and slow down.  Most of\r\nthe global models take the remnant low slowly west-southwestward,\r\nthen southward in a few days.  The latest NHC track is close to the\r\nprevious advisory and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 19.9N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 20.3N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 20.5N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 20.4N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 20.2N 138.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nEnrique has become a swirl of low- and mid-level clouds with\r\nisolated thunderstorm activity as the center moves over sea surface\r\ntemperatures of about 25C.  The initial intensity is decreased to\r\n30 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  The forecast track keeps the cyclone over cool waters,\r\nand it is expected to degenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours\r\nand dissipate completely between 96-120 hours.\r\n\r\nA jog to the north has occurred since the last advisory, and the\r\ninitial motion is now 300/7.  A west-northwestward motion should\r\ncontinue for another 12 hours or so.  After that, steering currents\r\nweaken, and the cyclone or its remnants should slow down as it\r\nturns westward and southward.  The global models agree that the\r\nremnants of Enrique will be slow moving during the 48-96 hour\r\nperiod, although there are differences in the details of the tracks.\r\nThe new forecast track is similar to the previous track in showing\r\na southward turn after 36 hours, followed by little motion from\r\n48-96 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 20.2N 135.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 20.6N 136.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 20.6N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 20.1N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 19.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2015\r\n\r\nEnrique is a well-defined vortex, mainly consisting of low-level\r\nstratocumulus clouds.  Although a small thunderstorm cluster has\r\ndeveloped north of the cyclone's center in the last couple of hours,\r\noverall Enrique has been devoid of any significant deep convection\r\nnear the center for about 12 hours.  Dvorak current intensity\r\nnumbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped to a 1.5, or 25 kt.  A 2024Z\r\nRapidScat pass suggested peak surface winds in Enrique of 40 kt,\r\nbut these winds are likely rain-inflated and may not be reliable.\r\nBased on the tight swirl remaining in the low cloud field, the\r\ninitial intensity remains at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nAs the cyclone should remain over cool 24-25 degree C water and\r\nembedded within dry stable air, it is anticipated that Enrique will\r\nsoon become a remnant low.  Due to the large size of the vortex,\r\nhowever, it will likely take four to five days for Enrique's remnant\r\nlow to spin down and dissipate, as indicated by the global models.\r\n\r\nEnrique is moving toward the northwest at 5 kt due to the steering\r\ninduced by a surface high to its north.  As Hurricane Dolores\r\napproaches from the southeast, the low-level steering near Enrique\r\nwill collapse in a day or so.  This should allow Enrique to meander\r\nuntil dissipation occurs.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 20.5N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 20.7N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 20.7N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 20.3N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 20.0N 137.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 19.9N 137.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 20.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nData from a recent ASCAT overpass showed that Enrique had not\r\nweakened quite as much as earlier estimated, and that there were\r\nstill tropical storm force winds over the northwest quadrant of the\r\ncyclone.  The current intensity estimate is set at 35 kt,\r\nresulting in the redesignation of the system as a tropical storm.\r\nSeveral hours ago, there was a small burst of deep convection over\r\nthe northern portion of the circulation.  Recently, however that\r\nconvection is dissipating.  Enrique should be traversing waters\r\ncooler than 25 deg C and entraining rather stable air.  Therefore,\r\nweakening is still anticipated and the system is forecast to\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low within 24 hours.  This is also\r\nconsistent with the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe center appears to be gradually turning to the left and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is now 290/5 kt.  Over the next few days,\r\nEnrique should continue to turn to the left, and move in a general\r\ncounterclockwise loop while embedded within a low- to mid-level\r\ncyclonic gyre.  The official track forecast is a blend of the\r\nlatest GFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 20.6N 136.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 20.7N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 20.5N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 20.0N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 19.9N 137.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 20.4N 137.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 21.5N 137.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Enrique","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nEnrique has changed little in organization over the past several\r\nhours as it continues to generate small bursts of convection north\r\nof the center.  There is no recent scatterometer data from the\r\ncentral core, so the intensity is held at 35 kt based on continuity\r\nfrom the previous advisory.  The cyclone should decay over sea\r\nsurface temperatures of 25C, and it is expected to degenerate into a\r\nremnant low pressure area in 24 hours or so.  It should be noted\r\nthat while the forecast calls for the remnant low to dissipate after\r\n96 hours, several dynamical models forecast it to last for more than\r\n120 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 270/3.  The track guidance suggests that\r\nEnrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during\r\nthe next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion.  The\r\nnew track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is a\r\nblend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 20.5N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 20.5N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 20.1N 137.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 20.0N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 22.5N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Enrique","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nRecently received ASCAT data shows that Enrique has weakened to a\r\ntropical depression with winds of 30 kt.  There is currently no deep\r\nconvection associated with the cyclone, although several bands of\r\nlow-topped showers are present.  Unless there is a significant\r\nincrease in convection, the cyclone should degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow pressure area in 24 hours or less. After that, the dynamical\r\nguidance suggests that the remnant low should persist for several\r\nmore days before dissipating.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 270/2.  The track guidance indicates that\r\nEnrique and its remnants should make a counter-clockwise loop during\r\nthe next three days or so, followed by a northwestward motion.  The\r\nnew track forecast is again similar to the previous forecast and is\r\nnear the center of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 20.5N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 20.3N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 19.9N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 19.9N 137.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 20.2N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 23.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Enrique","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP062015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 17 2015\r\n\r\nOrganized deep convection has been absent from the center for about\r\n12 hours now, and what little convection that does exist is\r\noccurring in a narrow band in the northwestern quadrant more than\r\n75 nmi from the center. Therefore, Enrique no longer meets the\r\ncriteria of a tropical cyclone, and the system is being designated\r\nas a remnant low and advisories are being discontinued at this time.\r\nThe intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on earlier ASCAT\r\nsurface wind data. Unfavorable thermodynamic and oceanic conditions\r\nshould inhibit the re-development of persistent deep convection, so\r\ngradual weakening and spin down of the large vortex is expected\r\nover the next several days. The NHC official forecast calls for\r\ndissipation by 120 hours, similar to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nglobal models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 225/02 kt. The preponderance of the NHC\r\nmodel guidance continues to indicate that post-tropical Enrique\r\nshould make a slow and tight counter-clockwise loop during the next\r\n48 hours or so, followed by a northwestward motion.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is essentially just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 20.3N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 20.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 19.8N 137.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 20.1N 137.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 20.6N 136.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 21.9N 137.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 23.4N 138.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n300 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the area of low pressure several\r\nhundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California\r\npeninsula has become better organized tonight, with a curved\r\nband wrapping around the southern semicircle of the circulation.\r\nBased on the increased convective organization, the system is now\r\nclassified as a tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set to\r\n30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.\r\n\r\nThere is not much of an opportunity for the depression to\r\nstrengthen, with moderate northerly shear expected to persist until\r\nthe system crosses the 26C isotherm in about a day. As a result,\r\nthe intensity guidance shows little strengthening and the NHC\r\nforecast follows this trend. However, it is possible that the\r\ncyclone could briefly reach tropical storm status even though that\r\nisn't explicitly forecast here. The cyclone should weaken to a\r\nremnant low by 48 hours due to cold waters and a dry, stable\r\nairmass. The low is forecast to dissipate by day 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 330/08. The depression should\r\nmove northwestward around the southwestern periphery of the\r\nsubtropical ridge for the next 24 hours and then turn westward under\r\nthe influence of the low-level ridge as it becomes a shallow system.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels through dissipation.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 18.0N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 20.2N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 21.3N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 22.1N 119.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 22.5N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 22.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n900 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2015\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery and a couple of recent microwave\r\noverpasses show that spiral banding has improved during the past\r\nseveral hours, particularly over the eastern and southern portions\r\nof the cyclone.  Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB\r\nare T2.5/35 kt, supporting an upgrade of the system to a tropical\r\nstorm.  Although Felicia has about 24 hours or so before\r\nmoving over cooler water and into a more stable environment,\r\npersistent northerly shear should impede any significant\r\nstrengthening.  The statistical-dynamical intensity guidance all\r\nshow Felicia weakening to a remnant low in 48 hours, and this is\r\nreflected in the official forecast.  Global models subsequently\r\nindicate the cyclone dissipating or opening up into a trough in 4\r\ndays or less.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 320/11.  Felicia is forecast\r\nto continue moving northwestward within the mid-level flow on the\r\nsouthwestern side of the subtropical ridge during the next 24-36\r\nhours.  Afterward, the dynamical models show Felicia gradually\r\nturning westward as the system degenerates into a remnant low and is\r\nsteered by the low-level tradewind flow.  The NHC forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the first advisory, and closely follows the\r\nGFEX and TVCN multi-model consensus forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 19.1N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 20.1N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 21.2N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 22.0N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 22.6N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Felicia","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015\r\n\r\nFelicia is apparently experiencing a less conducive environment\r\nsooner than anticipated.  The coverage and intensity of deep\r\nconvection has diminished since earlier today, and the center of the\r\nstorm has become exposed to the northwest of the main area of\r\nthunderstorms.  The current intensity is held at 35 kt in\r\naccordance with the Dvorak rules.  Over the next day or two, the\r\ncyclone is expected to move over cooler waters, and into a more\r\nstable air mass.  The latter is evidenced by the field of\r\nstratocumulus seen to its northwest.  Weakening to a depression is\r\nlikely to occur tomorrow, and Felicia should become a remnant low on\r\nSaturday.  If current trends continue, however, the system could\r\nweaken sooner than shown here.  The NHC intensity forecast is close\r\nto the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe motion, 310/11 kt, is about the same as before.  Over the next\r\nday or so, Felicia should be be steered by the flow on\r\nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone\r\ncentered over the Southern Plains of the United States.\r\nThereafter, the increasingly shallow vortex should move\r\nwest-northwestward to westward within the lower-tropospheric flow.\r\nThe official track forecast is similar to, but a little faster\r\nthan, the previous forecast.  This is slightly slower than the\r\nlatest consensus model guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 19.8N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 20.7N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 21.7N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 22.4N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 22.8N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 23.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Felicia is weakening.  The low-level\r\ncenter of the system is exposed and the associated deep convection\r\nis confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.  The\r\ninitial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of the\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  This\r\nmakes Felicia a tropical depression.  Since the depression is\r\nalready in a dry and stable airmass and will soon be over cool\r\nwater, continued weakening is predicted.  The official forecast\r\nshows Felicia becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could\r\noccur even sooner.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3\r\nto 4 days.\r\n\r\nFelicia is moving northwestward at about 11 kt.  The depression is\r\nexpected to turn to the west-northwest on Friday and to the west on\r\nSaturday steered by the low-level flow.  The official track forecast\r\nis similar to the previous one and in best agreement with a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 20.4N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 21.2N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 22.0N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 22.6N 121.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 22.8N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 23.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015\r\n\r\nFelicia remains a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds with a cluster\r\nof convection over the southeastern quadrant.  An ASCAT-B overpass\r\nat 0523 UTC showed an area of 25-30 kt winds in the northeastern\r\nsemicircle, and this is the basis for keeping the initial intensity\r\nat 30 kt.  The depression is entraining a dry and stable airmass and\r\nwill be passing over decreasing sea surface temperatures.  Thus,\r\ncontinued weakening is predicted.  The official forecast shows\r\nFelicia becoming a remnant low by 24 hours, with the remnant low\r\nexpected to dissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 310/10.  The cyclone is expected to turn\r\nwest-northwestward and then westward during the next 48 hours on the\r\nsouth side of a low- to mid-level ridge.  The track guidance has\r\nshifted a little to the north since the previous advisory, and\r\nbased on this forecast track is also shifted northward.  The new\r\ntrack lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 21.2N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 22.0N 118.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 22.7N 120.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 23.1N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 23.2N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 23.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015\r\n\r\nThe rather harsh thermodynamic atmospheric environment and\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures continue to have a substantial\r\neffect on Felicia's cloud pattern.  The cyclone's circulation\r\nconsists mainly of a swirl of stable stratocumulus low clouds with a\r\ndiminishing deep convective curved band displaced well to the east.\r\nThe initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory based on a\r\ncompromise of the final-T and CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB.\r\nFelicia should continue to spin down and become a remnant low either\r\ntonight or Saturday morning, with dissipation expected in 3 days or\r\nless.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/9 kt.\r\nThere are no significant changes to the forecast philosophy in this\r\nadvisory.  As Felicia continues to weaken into a shallow system, a\r\nturn toward the west within the low-level easterly flow of the\r\nsubtropical ridge is expected tonight.  The NHC forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous advisory but nudged\r\nslightly toward the right to side with a blend of the GFEX and TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 21.7N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 22.5N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 23.3N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 23.5N 123.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Felicia","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015\r\n\r\nFelicia consists of a swirl of low clouds with little or no deep\r\nconvection.  An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago suggested that the\r\nsystem may have weakened a bit, but the pass did not capture all of\r\nthe circulation.  Therefore, the intensity is held at 30 kt for\r\nnow.  Weakening is likely as the system traverses waters cooler\r\nthan 25 deg C and continues to ingest stable air.  The official\r\nforecast now shows remnant low status in 12 hours, and Felicia could\r\ndegenerate even sooner than that.\r\n\r\nThe motion continues toward the northwest or 310/10 kt.  There is\r\nlittle change to the track forecast philosophy from the last few\r\nadvisory packages.  Felicia or its remnants should be steered by the\r\nflow to the southwest of a mid-level high pressure area through\r\ntonight.  Thereafter, the system should turn westward and move\r\nwithin the low-level easterly flow.  The official track forecast is\r\nclose to the latest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 22.8N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 23.4N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 23.9N 121.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 24.0N 123.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 24.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Felicia","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP072015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 24 2015\r\n\r\nFelicia has been devoid of deep convection for nearly 10 hours, and\r\nsince the cyclone is over sea surface temperatures of around 23 deg\r\nC, there is little likelihood of the system making comeback.\r\nOn this basis, Felicia is being declared a remnant low with 25-kt\r\nwinds, and this is the last advisory. Continued weakening of the\r\ncyclone is expected while it remains over cool waters and ingests\r\ndrier and more stable air.  Dissipation is predicted in 2 to\r\n3 days, following the global models.\r\n\r\nThe remnant low is moving northwestward at about 11 kt.  The\r\nshallow system is expected to turn west-northwestward on Saturday\r\nand westward on Sunday within the low-level trade wind flow.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on this system please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI,  WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 23.4N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 23.9N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 24.2N 123.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 24.4N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 24.4N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015\r\n\r\nThe low pressure system located more than 1000 n mi west-southwest\r\nof the Baja California peninsula has finally acquired enough\r\npersistent deep convection near the center for it to be upgraded to\r\na tropical depression.  An 1831 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated a\r\nwell-defined circulation center and inner-core wind field containing\r\nseveral 30-31 kt surface wind vectors at a distance of 35-40 nmi to\r\nthe northeast and southeast of the center. Although the depression\r\nis a sheared tropical cyclone, a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite\r\nclassification from TAFB also justifies upgrading the low to a\r\ntropical depression at this time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt, which is based primarily\r\non microwave and ASCAT satellite fixes.  The NHC model guidance is\r\nin good agreement on the tropical cyclone moving toward the\r\nwest-northwest at 12-14 kt for the next 72 hours or so due to a\r\nstrong deep-layer ridge locate to its north.  After that, however,\r\nthe guidance diverges significantly with the ECMWF model taking a\r\nvery weak cyclone or trough west-southwestward, the GFS and HWRF\r\nmodels moving the system westward, while the GFS-ensemble mean and\r\nthe remainder of the models keep the depression on a slower\r\nwest-northwestward track.  The NHC official forecast track basically\r\nlies down the middle of the guidance suite throughout the forecast\r\nperiod and is close to the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is not expected to intensify much due to persistent\r\nmoderate northwesterly vertical wind shear and the cyclone moving\r\nover marginal sea-surface temperatures after 72 hours.  There will\r\nalso likely be occasional intrusions of drier and more stable air,\r\nwhich lies just to the north of the forecast track, into the\r\ncyclone.  However, the well-established southerly low-level inflow\r\nof unstable air should help to maintain enough convection to keep\r\nthis system as a tropical cyclone throughout the forecast period.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is similar to the ICON consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 15.6N 126.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 16.1N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 16.6N 130.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 17.0N 132.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 17.3N 134.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 17.9N 139.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 18.2N 145.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 18.4N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression has become somewhat less organized since the last\r\nadvisory.  The center has become exposed to the northwest of an\r\namorphous but persistent mass of deep convection.  According to the\r\nUW-CIMSS shear analyses, the cyclone's appearance is a result of\r\nnorthwesterly shear of around 20 kt associated with an upper-level\r\ntrough located to its northeast.  Last-light visible satellite\r\nimages also showed arc clouds on the fringes of the eastern half of\r\nthe circulation, indicative of dry air entrainment.  A satellite\r\nclassification of T2.0 from both SAB at 0000 UTC is used to maintain\r\nthe initial intensity at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nAny opportunity for the depression to strengthen is expected to be\r\nin the very short term.  Water vapor imagery shows the cyclone\r\nmoving into a region dominated by very dry mid- to\r\nupper-tropospheric air.  The dry air, in combination with lower sea\r\nsurface temperatures and greater atmospheric stability, should\r\nresult in weakening after 24 to 36 hours.  Global models show\r\nthe system opening up into a trough in about 3 days in an\r\nincreasingly unfavorable environment, around the time it crosses\r\n140W.  Like the previous forecast, this one shows little\r\nintensification, followed by weakening.  However, dissipation is\r\npredicted much sooner (by 96 hours) based on the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/12.  A low- to mid-level ridge\r\nover the subtropical eastern Pacific should steer the cyclone on a\r\nwest-northwestward course during the next few days.  The model\r\nsolutions diverge to some degree after 12 to 24 hours, due to\r\ntheir handling of the strength of this feature.  The GFS and its\r\nensemble mean have a weaker ridge and are farthest north while the\r\nECWMF, with a stronger ridge, is on the southern side of the\r\nguidance envelope.  The new forecast track results in little\r\noverall change from the previous one and is nearly split between\r\nthe ECMWF and GFS, near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 16.0N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 16.4N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 16.9N 131.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 17.2N 133.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 17.5N 135.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 18.0N 141.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-07-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015\r\n\r\nThere has not been much change with the depression during the last\r\nseveral hours.  Although an area of deep convection has been\r\npersisting near and to the south of the center, the cloud pattern\r\nlacks banding features.  The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt, in\r\nagreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB.\r\n\r\nThe depression is currently experiencing about 15 kt of\r\nnorth-northwesterly shear, which is the reason why most of the\r\nthunderstorms are located to the south of the center.  This\r\ncontinued shear, in combination with a stable air mass to the north\r\nof the cyclone should allow for only slight strengthening, if any,\r\nduring the next day or two.  After that time, weakening is expected\r\nwhen the system moves into an even more stable air mass and over\r\nslightly cooler water. None of the intensity models show significant\r\nstrengthening, and the NHC forecast lies near the ICON consensus\r\nmodel.  Most of the global models show the depression opening into a\r\ntrough in 3 to 4 days, and the NHC forecast follows that theme by\r\nshowing dissipation at 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at about 11 kt.  A\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge located to the north of the system should\r\ncause the cyclone to turn westward by tonight, and that general\r\nmotion is forecast to continue until the system dissipates.  The\r\nNHC track forecast is just a tad to the south of the previous one,\r\ntrending toward the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 16.2N 128.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 16.6N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 16.9N 131.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 17.2N 134.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 17.3N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 17.3N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-07-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression continues to lack banding features, and the low-level\r\ncenter is located near the northwestern edge of a recent flare-up of\r\ndeep convection.  Subjective Dvorak estimates are unchanged from six\r\nhours ago, while final-T numbers from the UW-CIMSS ADT have been\r\ndecreasing.  The initial winds are therefore kept at 30 kt.  The\r\nSHIPS diagnostics indicate that 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly\r\nshear is currently affecting the depression.  The shear is expected\r\nto decrease gradually after 12-24 hours, but then the cyclone will\r\nalso be moving into a drier air mass.  The intensity and global\r\nmodels show no or minimal strengthening, but the official forecast\r\nstill allows for the system to become a tropical storm sometime\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  Dissipation could occur earlier than\r\nshown below, with both the GFS and ECMWF showing the system becoming\r\nan open trough by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe subtropical ridge continues to steer the depression west-\r\nnorthwestward at about 11 kt.  The cyclone is expected to turn\r\nwestward later today and maintain that trajectory until it\r\ndissipates in three or four days.  No significant changes were made\r\nto the NHC track forecast, which lies very close to the GFS-ECMWF\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 16.4N 129.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 16.7N 130.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 17.0N 133.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 17.2N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 17.2N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 16.8N 144.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-07-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of the depression is exposed to the northwest\r\nof a small burst of deep convection, and arc clouds are emanating\r\noutward over the northern semicircle due to dry air in the\r\ncirculation.  The various Dvorak estimates were steady or decreased\r\nfrom this morning, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The\r\ncenter is exposed due to continued 15-20 kt of north-northwesterly\r\nshear, which is expected to begin diminishing in about 12 hours.\r\nAt the same time, however, the depression will be ingesting\r\nincreasingly drier air and moving over much lower oceanic heat\r\ncontent values.  Therefore, strengthening is no longer indicated in\r\nthe official forecast, following the trends noted in the intensity\r\nand global models.  The global models open the system up into a\r\ntrough by day 3, and dissipation is therefore expected by that\r\ntime.\r\n\r\nThe depression has turned westward, or 280/12 kt, steered by the\r\nlow- to mid-level subtropical ridge.  Due to its shallow nature,\r\nthe depression should continue to move quickly westward until it\r\ndissipates.  The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement on the future\r\ntrack, and the official forecast continues to closely follow the\r\nconsensus of those two models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 16.6N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 16.8N 132.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 17.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 17.0N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 17.0N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-07-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern is becoming less organized.  The\r\nlow-level center continues to be exposed, and the overall extent of\r\nthe cyclone's deep convection has diminished since yesterday.  What\r\nfew puffs of convection remain are shapeless and occurring in\r\nsporadic bursts. Satellite classifications are T1.5 and T2.0 from\r\nTAFB and SAB, respectively, suggesting that 30 kt is still a\r\nreasonable intensity estimate.\r\n\r\nA stiff northwesterly shear of 15 to 20 kt affecting the depression\r\nis supposed to decrease considerably during the next couple of days.\r\nHowever, cooler waters and increasingly unfavorable thermodynamic\r\nfactors such as even less available atmospheric moisture suggest\r\nthat weakening is likely. In fact, according to the global models,\r\nit would be optimistic for depression to survive another 48 hours.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the previous\r\none, and is in agreement with the unanimous model guidance calling\r\nfor dissipation in 2 days or less.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/10.  A low- to mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge north of the depression should direct it\r\nwestward during the next day or so. Once the weak system becomes\r\neven shallower, it is expected to trek westward or even west-\r\nsouthwestward in the low-level trade wind flow until dissipation.\r\nThe official forecast is almost identical to the previous one as\r\nwell as to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 17.0N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 17.1N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 17.2N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.3N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-07-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015\r\n\r\nMicrowave data show that the depression continues to be sheared\r\nwith the low-level center located to the northwest of a patch of\r\ndeep convection. Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB support\r\nkeeping the depression at 30 kt at this time. Although the shear is\r\nforecast to decrease, the depression is moving toward a dry and\r\nstable environment. Consequently, the NHC forecast calls for\r\ndissipation in about 48 hours. This is consistent with the trend of\r\nthe global models and the intensity consensus. In fact, global\r\nmodels depict the cyclone as a westward moving trough by 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 10 kt.\r\nBecause the depression is forecast to weaken and become a shallow\r\ncyclone, it is expected to be steered westward by the prevailing\r\nlow-level flow until dissipation.  There are no important changes to\r\nthe previous forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 16.9N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 16.9N 134.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 16.9N 136.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 16.7N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-07-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015\r\n\r\nA recent AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that the depression still\r\nhas a well-defined circulation and center, but the deep convection\r\nhas become less organized since yesterday.  The intensity remains at\r\n30 kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Vertical shear\r\nis out of the north-northwest at 10-15 kt, which is lower than\r\nyesterday, but the depression has been moving into an increasingly\r\ndrier air mass.  Therefore, the system is forecast to weaken and\r\ndegenerate into a trough by 48 hours, following the evolution\r\ndepicted in the global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 270/11 kt, with the depression being steered\r\nwestward by the low-level ridge to its north.  A westward motion\r\nwith some acceleration should occur during the next 36 hours before\r\nthe depression dissipates, and the updated NHC track forecast is\r\nshifted only slightly southward to follow the GFS-ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 17.0N 133.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 16.9N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 16.8N 138.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 16.6N 141.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-07-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the depression is becoming less\r\norganized and now consists of a nearly linear band through the\r\neastern and southeastern part of the circulation.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and\r\nSAB.  North-northwesterly vertical shear of 10-15 kt is expected to\r\ndiminish during the next 24 hours, but the circulation is moving\r\ninto a drier air mass and over lower oceanic heat content values.\r\nDegeneration into a trough is expected by 36 hours based on the\r\nlatest global model guidance.  Although not explicitly indicated in\r\nthe forecast, the depression could become a remnant low before\r\ndissipation occurs if it can't maintain organized deep convection.\r\n\r\nThe depression appeared to accelerate suddenly earlier today but has\r\nleveled out at a motion of 265/14 kt.  A low-level ridge to the\r\nnorth should keep the cyclone moving at this motion until\r\ndissipation, and the NHC track forecast follows the GFS-ECMWF\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 16.6N 135.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 16.5N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 16.3N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-07-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern consists of a swirl of low-level\r\nclouds with a few small patches of deep convection.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement with a\r\nDvorak CI number from TAFB.  North-northwesterly shear and dry air\r\ncontinue to affect the cyclone.  Although the shear is expected to\r\nlessen, even drier air lies ahead of the system.  The global models\r\nshow the depression opening into a trough in a day or so, and the\r\nofficial forecast follows that guidance.  The depression could\r\nbecome a remnant low before it dissipates if organized deep\r\nconvection does not return soon.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/14.  A low- to mid-level\r\nridge to the north of the depression should continue to steer the\r\ncyclone just south of due west until it dissipates.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is an update of the previous one and lies in the middle of\r\nthe guidance envelope.  This system is expected to cross into the\r\nCentral Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility on\r\nThursday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 16.6N 137.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 16.4N 139.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 16.2N 142.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-07-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression is devoid of deep convection, and is basically a\r\ntight swirl of low clouds. The initial intensity has been lowered to\r\n25 kt based on decreasing Dvorak numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The\r\ndepression is heading toward a hostile environment, and the official\r\nforecast calls for dissipation in about 36 hours, but this could\r\noccur later today.\r\n\r\nThe shallow depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt. The\r\ndepression is expected to continue on this general track steered\r\nby the low-level trade winds until dissipation. The depression or\r\nits remnants are forecast to cross into the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center's area of responsibility later today.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 16.5N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 16.3N 140.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 16.0N 143.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-07-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP082015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082015\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Eight-E has been devoid of organized deep\r\nconvection near the center for more than 18 hours, except for an\r\nisolated thunderstorm that has recently developed just south of the\r\nwell-defined circulation center.  However, the main band of\r\nconvection is located in the northeastern quadrant, but it is more\r\nthan 200 n mi from the center.  Therefore, this system no longer\r\nmeets the criteria of a tropical cyclone; it is being designated\r\nas a remnant low, and advisories are being discontinued at this\r\ntime.  The initial intensity remains at 25 kt based on an earlier\r\nRapidSCAT overpass. Since the remnant low is heading toward a more\r\nhostile environment, the new NHC official forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory, calling for dissipation in about 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe remnant low is moving at 270/11 kt. This general motion should\r\ncontinue today, followed by a turn toward the west-southwest by\r\nFriday morning. The remnant low is forecast to cross into the\r\nCentral Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility within the\r\nnext couple of hours.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on this remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 16.5N 139.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 16.3N 141.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-07-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and reports from NOAA buoy 51307 indicate that\r\nthe large low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of\r\nthe Baja California has a closed circulation and sufficient\r\nconvection to be considered a tropical depression.  Thus, advisories\r\nare being initiated on Tropical Depression Nine-E.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 30 kt, which could be conservative given the\r\ncurrent convective organization.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 280/13.  For the next three days or so, a\r\nstrong low- to mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it\r\ngenerally west-northwestward, and the forecast track is in the\r\ncenter of the guidance envelope during this period.  From 72-120\r\nhours, the dynamical models suggest a mid- to upper-level trough\r\nshould weaken the ridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.\r\nThe guidance becomes somewhat divergent during this time, with the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models showing a more northward motion, while the\r\nCanadian, UKMET, HWRF, and NAVGEM models show a continued\r\nwest-northwestward motion.  The track forecast follows the GFS/ECMWF\r\nsolutions in calling for a turn toward the northwest and a decrease\r\nin forward speed.\r\n\r\nThe depression is over warm sea surface temperatures and is expected\r\nto remain in a moist environment with light vertical wind shear for\r\nthe next 72 hours or so.  This should allow for steady\r\nstrengthening, and the forecast follows the intensity consensus in\r\ncalling for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in 12 hours and a\r\nhurricane in about 48 hours.  After 72 hours, a combination of\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track and\r\nwesterly shear is expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z  8.2N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z  8.9N 127.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z  9.9N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 10.9N 133.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 12.0N 136.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 13.5N 141.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 15.5N 145.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 17.5N 146.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-07-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015\r\n\r\nGOES satellite imagery show that the cloud pattern has become better\r\norganized with numerous cyclonically curved convective bands around\r\nthe center of circulation. The upper-level outflow has improved\r\nduring the past several hours. Dvorak T-numbers are now 3.0 and\r\n2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively. Thus, the depression has been\r\nupgraded to Tropical Storm Guillermo with an initial intensity of\r\n35 kt. Guillermo is the seventh tropical storm of the 2015 eastern\r\nnorth Pacific hurricane season.\r\n\r\nThe environment of low shear and warm SSTs is quite favorable for\r\nstrengthening, and Guillermo will likely become a hurricane in about\r\n36 hours. The probability of rapid intensification included in the\r\nSHIPS guidance is 32 percent. After 72 hours, both cooler ocean and\r\nincreasing shear will likely induce gradual weakening. The NHC\r\nforecast follows very closely the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-\r\nnorthwest or 285 degrees at 13 kt. Guillermo is well embedded within\r\nthe deep easterly flow south of a moderate subtropical ridge. There\r\nis high confidence that this pattern should keep the cyclone on this\r\ngeneral track for the next 2 to 3 days, given that the guidance is\r\ntightly clustered during that period. After that time, Guillermo\r\nwill reach the western edge of the ridge and will turn more to the\r\nnorthwest toward a mid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one and is basically on top of the consensus\r\nof the ECMWF and the GFS global models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z  8.5N 126.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z  8.9N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 10.1N 131.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 11.2N 134.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 12.2N 137.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 14.5N 141.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 16.3N 144.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 18.0N 146.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-07-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 30 2015\r\n\r\nGuillermo's convective pattern continues to improve, with a solid\r\nband curving about half way around the center of circulation.\r\nDvorak classifications were T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt\r\nfrom SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 40 kt.\r\nThis could be somewhat conservative, given that the latest objective\r\nADTs are around 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe environment ahead of Guillermo looks plenty favorable for\r\ncontinued strengthening.  Upper-level outflow is expanding around\r\nthe cyclone, and Guillermo should remain in a light-shear\r\nenvironment for at least the next 3-4 days.  In addition, sea\r\nsurface temperatures are about 29 degrees C, and the atmosphere is\r\nmoist and unstable.  Additional strengthening is anticipated during\r\nthe next few days, and there remains a 1 in 3 chance of rapid\r\nintensification during the next 24 hours.  Given the favorable\r\nenvironment, the official intensity forecast is a little above the\r\nintensity consensus for the entire forecast period.  It should be\r\nnoted that the HWRF model shows a stronger hurricane than is\r\nindicated in the official forecast, bringing Guillermo to category 2\r\nstrength in about 3 days.  Some weakening should occur by days 4 and\r\n5, mainly due to increased shear and lower oceanic heat content.\r\n\r\nGuillermo is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, to the south\r\nof the subtropical ridge.  The global models indicate that a mid-\r\nto upper-level low located about 1000 miles west of southern\r\nCalifornia will deepen and amplify during the next few days, which\r\nshould produce a break in the subtropical ridge.  The track models\r\nare in good agreement during the first 48 hours, and most of the\r\nspread beyond that time is due to speed differences.  An overall\r\nwestward shift in the guidance envelope necessitated an adjustment\r\nto the official track forecast from 48 hours and beyond, and it\r\nlies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z  9.1N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z  9.9N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 11.0N 132.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 12.0N 135.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 12.8N 138.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 14.6N 142.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 16.0N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 18.0N 148.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-07-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015\r\n\r\nGuillermo is quickly becoming better organized, and both microwave\r\nand visible imagery suggest that the cyclone is developing a ring\r\nof inner core convection.  Dvorak classifications at 1800 UTC were\r\nT3.0/45 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but given the quickly improving\r\nconvective structure, the advisory intensity is set at 50 kt.  This\r\nis close to the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T3.4/53 kt.\r\n\r\nThe upper-level outflow of Guillermo continues to expand, and the\r\nstorm is over very warm waters of around 29 degrees Celsius.  Global\r\nmodel guidance indicates that Guillermo should remain in a\r\nlight-shear environment for at least another 3 days, while also\r\nremaining over warm water and in a moisture-laden atmosphere.\r\nTherefore, continued strengthening is likely for the next 48 hours,\r\nand Guillermo could become a hurricane within the next 12-24 hours.\r\nGradual weakening is forecast from day 3 through 5 due to stronger\r\nupper-level westerly winds which could affect the cyclone.  The\r\nstatistical-dynamical guidance continues to show only modest\r\nstrengthening--barely taking Guillermo to hurricane status--but\r\nthis scenario seems low given the seemingly favorable environment.\r\nThe NHC official intensity forecast remains closer to the higher\r\ndynamical guidance and is largely unchanged from the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThe subtropical ridge is steering Guillermo west-northwestward, or\r\n295/12 kt.  The ridge is forecast to strengthen slightly, causing\r\nGuillermo to accelerate during the next 36 hours.  After that time,\r\na mid- to upper-level low well west of California is expected to\r\nproduce a break in the ridge, which should cause the cyclone to\r\nslow down and turn northwestward by day 5.  The latest track\r\nguidance ended up lying to the west of the previous official\r\nforecast track, and the updated NHC track has therefore been\r\nshifted a bit to the left, especially after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z  9.8N 128.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 11.5N 133.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 12.4N 136.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 13.2N 139.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 14.9N 143.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 16.5N 146.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 18.0N 148.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-07-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 30 2015\r\n\r\n\r\nMicrowave and conventional satellite imagery indicate that\r\nGuillermo is continuing to become better organized.  The microwave\r\nimagery shows a developing eye, which has occasionally appeared in\r\nvisible and infrared imagery.  Satellite intensity estimates are\r\n55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest intensity estimate from\r\nthe CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is 65 kt.  Based on these, the\r\ninitial intensity is increased to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nGuillermo has turned to the right during the past several hours\r\nwith the initial motion now 305/12.  Other than that, there is\r\nlittle change in the forecast philosophy.  The subtropical ridge\r\nnorth of the storm is forecast to strengthen slightly, causing\r\nGuillermo to accelerate west-northwestward during the next 36\r\nhours. After that time, a mid- to upper-level low well west of\r\nCalifornia is expected to produce a break in the ridge, which should\r\ncause the cyclone to slow down and turn more northward by day 5.\r\nThe forecast track from 0 to 72 hours has been adjusted northward\r\nbased on the initial position and motion.  After 72 hours, the\r\nforecast guidance has again shifted to the left or west, and the\r\nforecast track has also been moved in that direction.  However,\r\nthis part of the forecast lies to the north of the various\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\nThe developing eye seen in microwave imagery shows that the\r\nstructure of Guillermo is conducive for additional rapid\r\nintensification.  Also, the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS\r\nmodel shows a 50 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  Based on this, the intensities during the\r\nfirst 48 hours of the forecast have been increased over those of the\r\nprevious advisory, and this part of the forecast lies near the upper\r\nedge of the intensity guidance. After 48 hours, the cyclone will\r\nmove over decreasing sea surface temperatures and possibly encounter\r\nwesterly vertical wind shear.  This combination is expected to\r\ncause the cyclone to weaken below hurricane strength by 120 hours.\r\nIt should be noted that the early part of the intensity forecast is\r\nof low confidence due to the uncertainties associated with rapid\r\nintensification, and the later part is of low confidence due to\r\nuncertainties in how much shear Guillermo will encounter.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 10.8N 129.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 11.4N 131.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 12.3N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 13.1N 137.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 13.9N 139.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 15.5N 143.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 16.5N 146.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 18.0N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-07-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015\r\n\r\nGuillermo's cloud pattern has continued to become better organized,\r\nwith well-defined convective banding and a fairly symmetric\r\nupper-level outflow pattern.  A recent GMI microwave image showed a\r\nnearly closed low-level eyewall.  The current intensity is set to 70\r\nkt, based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.\r\nThis makes Guillermo the fifth hurricane of the 2015 eastern North\r\nPacific season.  Given that the hurricane should be moving over warm\r\nwaters, and in a moist mid-level environment with moderate shear,\r\nfurther strengthening is likely.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis near or above the latest model consensus.  Since the SHIPS-RI\r\nindex still indicates a significant probability of rapid\r\nintensification over the next 24 hours, the NHC forecast could be\r\nconservative.  There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity\r\nforecast beyond 48-72 hours, since Guillermo could encounter\r\nstronger shear,  depending mainly on how far north the cyclone moves\r\nlate in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nBased on geostationary and microwave center fixes, the initial\r\nmotion is west-northwestward or 300/14 kt.  A mid-tropospheric\r\nridge to the north of the tropical cyclone should maintain the\r\nwest-northwestward motion for the next several days.  In 48-72\r\nhours, Guillermo should encounter a weakness in the ridge which\r\nwill likely cause some slowing of forward speed.  However most of\r\nthe guidance does not show much of a turn to the right in response\r\nto this weakness.  The official track forecast is close to a\r\nconsensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, with the former\r\nmodel to the north of the latter near the end of the period.  This\r\nis similar to the previous NHC track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 11.5N 130.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 12.1N 132.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 12.7N 135.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 13.3N 138.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 14.1N 140.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 15.5N 144.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 16.5N 146.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 17.5N 150.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-07-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation has improved during the past several\r\nhours. The eye, however, is not completely closed on microwave\r\nimagery at this time. There are several cyclonically curved\r\nconvective bands around the center, and the outflow is symmetric.\r\nBoth objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have continued to\r\nincrease, and the average of these numbers leads to an initial\r\nintensity of 80 kt.\r\n\r\nThe current environment of low shear and warm ocean is quite\r\nfavorable for Guillermo to intensity further, and the NHC forecast\r\nbrings the winds up to 100 kt in about 24 hours.  This forecast is a\r\nlittle bit higher than the SHIPS guidance, but follows the\r\nupward trend of the consensus. Beyond two days, the hurricane will\r\nencounter a less favorable shear environment as Guillermo approaches\r\nthe prevailing upper-level westerlies. By the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, when Guillermo is expected to be nearing the Hawaiian\r\nIslands, the cyclone should have weakened to a tropical storm.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is racing west-northwestward or 285 degrees at about\r\n15 kt. The cyclone will likely continue on this track and speed for\r\nthe next day or two while embedded within a layer of deep easterlies\r\nto the south of the subtropical ridge. After 48 hours, the hurricane\r\nis expected to slow down as it approaches the southwestern edge of\r\nthe subtropical ridge. By then, the presence of weaker steering\r\ncurrents makes the track forecast uncertain, and even more uncertain\r\nas the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian islands in about five days.\r\nThe NHC forecast is consistent with the solution provided by global\r\nmodels. The forecast is also near the consensus, but heavily\r\nweighted on the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 12.4N 132.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 13.0N 134.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 13.6N 137.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 14.3N 140.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 15.0N 142.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 16.3N 145.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 17.5N 148.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 18.5N 152.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation has improved a little more during past\r\nfew hours. Although the eye is much better defined on microwave, it\r\nis not completely clear on visible or infrared imagery. The average\r\nof intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB and objective numbers from\r\nUW-CIMSS suggests an initial intensity of 90 kt. The current\r\nenvironment of low shear and a warm ocean is quite favorable for\r\nGuillermo to intensify further in the short term, and the NHC\r\nforecast brings the winds up to 100 kt within 12 hours.  Beyond two\r\ndays, the hurricane will begin to move into a less favorable shear\r\nenvironment as Guillermo approaches prevailing upper-level\r\nwesterlies. By the end of the forecast period, when Guillermo is\r\nexpected to be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, most of the guidance\r\nindicate that Guillermo should have weakened to a tropical storm,\r\nand so does the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to move west-northwestward or 285 degrees at\r\n16 kt. Guillermo will likely continue at this fast pace for\r\nanother 24 to 36 hours while embedded within a layer of deep\r\neasterlies to the south of the subtropical ridge. After that time,\r\nthe hurricane is expected to slow down as it approaches the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and encounters weaker\r\nsteering currents. The latest multi-model consensus GFEX has\r\nshifted considerably northward primarily due to the fact that the\r\nECMWF changed its tune, and is now closer to the northernmost GFS.\r\nOn this basis, the NHC forecast is adjusted northward a little bit,\r\nbut not as much as the consensus, in case the ECMWF changes its tune\r\nagain tonight. The NHC forecast is on southern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope, and perhaps will have to be adjusted farther northward\r\nwhen new model runs become available.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 12.7N 134.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 13.3N 137.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 14.0N 140.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 14.8N 142.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 15.5N 144.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 17.0N 147.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 19.5N 153.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 31 2015\r\n\r\nBoth microwave and conventional satellite imagery indicate that\r\nGuillermo has not become any better organized during the past\r\nseveral hours. In fact, the satellite presentation appears to have\r\ndeteriorated since earlier today with microwave data showing the\r\nnorthwestern portion of the eyewall eroding.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB and the latest objective intensity\r\nestimate from UW-CIMSS ADT suggest that initial intensity remains 90\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nGuillermo continues to move rapidly to the west-northwest, with an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 285/18 kt. Little change to this motion\r\nis expected for the next 24 hours, with the cyclone remaining to the\r\nsouth of a mid-level subtropical ridge. Beyond 24 hours to around\r\n72 hours, a deepening mid- to upper-level trough over the central\r\nPacific is forecast to create a break in the subtropical ridge,\r\nwhich should cause the tropical cyclone to slow down and turn more\r\ntoward the northwest. The spread in the guidance suite increases\r\nbeyond 72 hours, but most of the models maintain a general\r\nwest-northwestward motion.  The new forecast track is basically an\r\nupdate of the previous track through 72 hours, and is then nudged\r\nslightly to the right or north of the previous track toward the\r\nmulti-model consensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast has become somewhat problematic. The reason\r\nfor the recent arrested development is unclear, although it might be\r\nrelated to dry air entrainment into the northwestern quadrant of the\r\ncyclone. However, there is still the opportunity for Guillermo to\r\nstrengthen a bit more during the next 12 to 24 hours, while the\r\nsystem remains within a low-shear environment and over warm sea\r\nsurface temperatures. The new intensity forecast is adjusted\r\nslightly downward to 95 kt at the 12- and 24-hour forecast times.\r\nThereafter, the cyclone is forecast to move into an upper-level\r\ndeformation zone between subtropical ridges to the east and west,\r\nwhich is a less favorable environment.  Also, sea surface\r\ntemperatures gradually cool along the forecast track. We have\r\nfollowed the previous forecast trend of gradual weakening, which is\r\nin good agreement with the latest SHIPS/LGEM and IVCN consensus\r\nguidance. When Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian Islands, it is\r\nexpected to encounter increasing westerly shear, and the new\r\nintensity forecast follows the previous forecast in weakening\r\nGuillermo to tropical storm strength.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 13.2N 136.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.7N 138.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 14.3N 141.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 15.0N 143.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 15.8N 145.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 17.0N 147.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 19.0N 150.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 20.5N 153.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven/Jacobson\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015\r\n\r\nGuillermo's cloud pattern has changed little in organization over\r\nthe past several hours.  Convective banding features are not as\r\nwell defined as they were 24 hours ago, and the CDO lacks a circular\r\nshape.  Dvorak T-numbers remain unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory package, so the intensity estimate is held at 90 kt.\r\nUpper-level outflow has become restricted to the northwest of the\r\ncyclone.  The oceanic and atmospheric environment is not likely to\r\nbecome more conducive for strengthening over the next couple of\r\ndays, and the numerical intensity guidance generally shows a\r\ngradual weakening trend.  Near the end of the forecast period,\r\nglobal models indicate a significant increase in vertical shear\r\nassociated with strong upper-tropospheric westerlies near the\r\nHawaiian Islands.  The official forecast is near or slightly above\r\nthe intensity model consensus and shows, as in the previous\r\nadvisory, weakening to tropical storm status in 96 hours.\r\n\r\nBased on geostationary and microwave center fixes, in particular an\r\nearlier SSMI/S pass from 0424Z, the motion has slowed somewhat and\r\nis now estimated to be about 285/14 kt.  Guillermo is approaching a\r\nweakness in the zonally-oriented mid-level ridge to its north, and\r\nthis should result in further deceleration over the next couple of\r\ndays.  In 3-5 days, the steering currents become less well defined\r\nin the global models and there is a fair amount of spread in the\r\ndynamical track predictions.  The ECMWF model has been doing a bit\r\nof a flip-flop in its last few runs, and it has shifted back the\r\nsouth after shifting northward in the previous run.  The official\r\nforecast is held very close to the previous NHC track and is close\r\nto the latest track model consensus, TVCN, which combines not only\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF solutions but also the HWRF, GFDL, and U.K. Met.\r\nOffice model forecasts.\r\n\r\nDue to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is\r\nimportant for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96\r\nand 120 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 13.4N 137.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 13.9N 139.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 14.5N 142.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 15.1N 144.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 15.8N 145.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 17.3N 148.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 19.0N 151.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 20.5N 154.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday when\r\nthere was a hint of an eye on satellite imagery. However, Dvorak\r\nT-numbers from all agencies still support an initial intensity of 90\r\nkt. It appears that Guillermo has already peaked in intensity, and\r\nthe hurricane is heading toward an environment no longer favorable\r\nfor strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a\r\nsteady state during the next 12 hours or so, and a gradual weakening\r\nthereafter. By the time Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian\r\nIslands, the upper-level winds are forecast to be even more\r\nunfavorable, and by then, Guillermo is expected to have weakened to\r\na tropical storm. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity\r\nconsensus model ICON.\r\n\r\nThe steering currents have begun to weaken, and Guillermo is slowing\r\ndown. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or\r\n280 degrees at 12 kt.  The hurricane is already located on the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and there is a large\r\nweakness of the ridge to its northwest. This pattern should force\r\nthe cyclone to slow down even further and turn more to the\r\nwest-northwest. The GFS insists on a more northwesterly component\r\nbringing the center of Guillermo north of the Hawaiian Islands. The\r\nECMWF, on the other hand, brings the cyclone south or near the\r\nIslands.  The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one,\r\nand is basically on top of the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nDue to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is\r\nimportant for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96\r\nand 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72\r\nhours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at\r\nthose time periods.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 13.5N 139.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Guillermo","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP092015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092015\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015\r\n\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate, but it is organized\r\nenough to keep the same Dvorak T-numbers with an initial intensity\r\nof 90 kt. Guillermo is heading toward a shear environment, and on\r\nthis basis, the NHC forecast calls for a gradual weakening. By the\r\ntime Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian Islands, the upper-level\r\nwinds are forecast to be even more unfavorable, and by then,\r\nGuillermo is expected to have weakened to a tropical storm. The NHC\r\nforecast continues to be very close to the intensity consensus model\r\nICON.\r\n\r\nGuillermo is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12\r\nkt.  The hurricane is already located on the southwestern edge of\r\nthe subtropical ridge, and there is a large weakness in the ridge to\r\nits northwest. This pattern should force the cyclone to slow down\r\neven further and turn more to the west-northwest or northwest. The\r\nmost reliable track models are now in better agreement, and the\r\nmulti-model consensus brings Guillermo just north or very near\r\nthe Hawaiian Islands.  The NHC forecast follows the consensus and is\r\nvery similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nDue to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is\r\nimportant for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96\r\nand 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72\r\nhours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at\r\nthose time periods.\r\n\r\nSince Guillermo is now moving into the Central Pacific, future\r\ninformation will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane\r\nCenter at Honolulu, Hawaii.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 13.8N 140.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015\r\n\r\nConvection associated with the area of low pressure located well\r\nwest-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula\r\nhas organized into a couple of bands over the northern and eastern\r\nportions of the circulation.  Visible satellite data also indicates\r\nthat the circulation has become better defined and advisories are\r\nbeing initiated on the tenth tropical depression of the 2015\r\neastern North Pacific hurricane season.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward or 270/10 kt.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to continue heading westward to the south of a narrow mid-\r\nto upper-level ridge.  After 72 hours, a deepening mid-level trough\r\nwell to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to produce\r\na weakness in the ridge between 140W and 150W longitude. This should\r\nresult in the cyclone turning west-northwestward, then northwestward\r\nlate in the forecast period.  The dynamical models are in good\r\nagreement on this scenario and the NHC track is near the middle of\r\nthe guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is forecast to remain over warm waters and in a low\r\nshear environment during the next several days.  The primary\r\ninhibiting factor appears to be some mid-level dry air to the north\r\nof the system.  As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for\r\ngradual strengthening during the next 2 to 3 days.  After 72 hours,\r\nslightly cooler sea surface temperatures and increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear are expected to induce weakening.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 12.5N 129.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 12.5N 131.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 12.5N 133.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 12.6N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 12.9N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 14.2N 140.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 15.8N 143.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 17.8N 145.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015\r\n\r\nDry mid- to upper-level air from the south has wrapped into the\r\ncirculation and now surrounds the inner core, having completely cut\r\noff and weakened the convective band in the northern semicircle.\r\nHowever, a small concentration of deep convection has persisted\r\nnear and to the west of the well-defined low-level center as noted\r\nin recent passive microwave satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,\r\nand a partial ASCAT-B overpass around 0552 UTC indicated 27-kt\r\nsurface winds in the convection just west of the center. Therefore,\r\nthe initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe motion continues to be 270/10 kt.  The depression is forecast\r\nto maintain a general westward motion for the next 48 hours or so,\r\nfollowed by a turn toward the west-northwest by 72 hours as the\r\ncyclone reaches the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer\r\nsubtropical ridge located to its north. Most of the 0000 UTC global\r\nmodels, especially the GFS and ECMWF, have backed off somewhat on\r\ndeveloping a large break in the ridge to the northeast of the\r\nHawaiian Islands by days 4 and 5. This has resulted in a significant\r\nwestward and southward shift of the guidance envelope. The official\r\nforecast track follows suit and has been shifted to the left of the\r\nprevious advisory track after 72 hours, but not nearly as far left\r\nas the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. I would prefer to see a couple of\r\nmore model runs before making such a large shift in the forecast\r\ntrack, in case this is a diurnal fluctuation for only one cycle.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of at least 28C\r\nfor the next 72 hours, and in a low-shear environment of 5-10 kt for\r\nthe next 96 hours. These favorable factors would normally result in\r\nsignificant strengthening. Although proximity to the aforementioned\r\ndry air will likely inhibit and disrupt the normal intensification\r\nprocess, the cyclone is still forecast to achieve hurricane status\r\nby day 4. Westerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected\r\nto impinge on the system by day 5, resulting in steady weakening.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus\r\nmodel IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 12.5N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 12.6N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 12.6N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 12.9N 136.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 13.5N 138.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 14.7N 142.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 16.5N 145.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 18.3N 147.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015\r\n\r\nThe cyclone's cloud pattern has significantly increased in\r\norganization since late yesterday. There is now a small central mass\r\nof deep convection, with a band on the northern side of the\r\ncirculation.  The center, according to an 1132 UTC SSM/I pass, is\r\nalso directly underneath this central convection, and the same pass\r\nindicates increasing symmetry to the overall convective structure.\r\nSatellite classifications from 1200 UTC were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35\r\nkt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity estimate\r\nis set at the higher end of these estimates (35 kt), based on the\r\neven greater organization seen in satellite imagery since that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is toward the west or 275/11. The general\r\nforecast scenario is for a subtropical ridge north of the cyclone to\r\nsteer Hilda westward for the next couple of days with a slight bend\r\ntoward the west-northwest after 36 hours.  In about 72 hours, the\r\ncyclone should move around the western end of the ridge and\r\nencounter a break in this feature at the end of the forecast period.\r\nThis pattern should cause Hilda to turn northwestward with a\r\ndecrease in forward speed by 96 hours.  The GFS-based guidance shows\r\na stronger ridge and a west-southwestward to westward track during\r\nthe next 2 to 3 days, while the ECMWF has a weaker ridge and a\r\ntrack farther north. The official forecast is closer to the ECMWF\r\nsolution and near but faster than the previous one through 72 hours.\r\nOverall, the NHC forecast lies to the right of the multi-model\r\nconsensus, which is dominated by the GFS guidance. After 72 hours,\r\nthe official track is near the multi-model consensus but not as far\r\nwest as the GFS/ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nLarge-scale dynamic and thermodynamic factors are forecast to be\r\nconducive for intensification through for the next 72 hours or so,\r\nexcept for a somewhat drier lower to middle troposphere along\r\nHilda's path in 2 to 3 days.  When the cyclone gains latitude late\r\nin the forecast period, it should begin to weaken due to increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear associated with a mid- to upper-level trough\r\nexpected to be near the longitude of Hawaii.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is higher than the previous one through 72 hours and is\r\nhigher than the multi-model consensus, but little change was made to\r\nthe intensity forecast late in the period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 12.7N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 12.9N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 13.0N 135.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 13.5N 137.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 14.1N 139.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 15.4N 144.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 17.1N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 18.8N 149.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015\r\n\r\nHilda's cloud pattern has rapidly increased in organization during\r\nthe past 12 hours. Conventional satellite imagery reveals a tiny\r\ntropical cyclone with a nearly symmetric dense overcast and a\r\nprominent band over the northern half of the circulation.  A 1503\r\nUTC Windsat pass showed a closed low-level ring of convection,\r\nsuggesting that the inner core of the tropical cyclone is already\r\nwell established. The initial intensity estimate is raised to 50 kt\r\nin best agreement with an earlier AMSU pass.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has been due west or 270/11.  Nothing has\r\nchanged regarding the forecast philosophy in the previous advisory.\r\nHilda should continue moving westward and then turn west-\r\nnorthwestward in about 36 hours as it nears the western periphery of\r\na subtropical ridge to its north.  The cyclone should begin to\r\nrespond to a weakness in the ridge located to the east of the\r\nHawaiian Islands and turn northwestward at a significantly reduced\r\nforward speed by 96 hours.  The official track forecast has been\r\nshifted significantly to the left during the first 48 hours but\r\nstill lies on the right side of the guidance envelope.  The track\r\nforecast after 48 hours is also left of the previous forecast but\r\nis closer to the multi-model consensus late in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThere are no obvious obstacles to additional intensification in the\r\nshort term, except for somewhat drier and more stable air mass to\r\nthe north and west of the cyclone.  Given Hilda's small size, it is\r\nassumed that the entrainment of this air is not likely to be an\r\ninhibitor.  The SHIPS model output indicates less conducive\r\nthermodynamic variables in 2 to 3 days which should halt any further\r\nintensification.  Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in the\r\ncentral Pacific after 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear\r\nassociated with a mid- to upper-level trough near the longitude of\r\nHawaii should result in weakening.  In fact, the shear could be\r\nstrong enough late in the period to cause a decoupling of the\r\ncyclone as depicted in global model fields.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is boosted much higher in the short term to account for the\r\ncurrent strengthening trend and is closest to the LGEM.  The\r\nintensity forecast is near or below the multi-model consensus after\r\n72 hours to emphasize the weakening expected at that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 12.7N 133.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 12.6N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 12.7N 137.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 13.1N 139.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 13.7N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 15.5N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 17.2N 147.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Hilda has not changed much since the previous\r\nadvisory.  The cyclone has a couple of curved convective bands with\r\na small symmetric central dense overcast.  Recent microwave data\r\nalso indicates that the inner core has not become any better\r\norganized during the afternoon.  A blend of the subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak T-numbers support maintaining an initial intensity\r\nof 50 kt.\r\n\r\nHilda is expected to remain in an environment of low vertical wind\r\nshear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next couple\r\nof days.  These conditions favor intensification and the NHC\r\nforecast brings Hilda to hurricane strength within the next 24\r\nhours. The new official forecast shows a slightly higher peak\r\nintensity in about 48 hours, which is a blend of the latest\r\nstatistical guidance.  After that time, a drier and more stable air\r\nmass and increasing southwesterly shear around 96 h are expected to\r\ninduce weakening.  The NHC forecast is below the model guidance\r\nlate in the forecast period, since the small tropical cyclone is\r\nlikely to spin down more quickly as a result of the strong shear.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving due west or 270 degrees at 12 kt.\r\nThe forecast reasoning remains the same as before.  Hilda is\r\nexpected to turn west-northwestward in about 36 hours when it nears\r\nthe western periphery of a subtropical ridge to its north.  In\r\nabout 96 hours, Hilda is forecast to turn northwestward due to a\r\ndeveloping weakness in the subtropical ridge.  The model guidance\r\nis in good agreement through day 3, but diverge somewhat thereafter.\r\nThe ECMWF and UKMET show a faster forward motion and are along the\r\nwestern edge of the guidance envelope.  Meanwhile, the GFS and HWRF\r\nare along the eastern edge.  The updated NHC forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory and near the GFS ensemble mean late in the\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 12.7N 134.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 12.7N 136.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 13.0N 138.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 13.7N 140.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 14.5N 142.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 16.3N 146.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 17.8N 148.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015\r\n\r\nA GPM Microwave Imager pass from 0431 UTC revealed that Hilda's\r\ncenter was located just under the eastern edge of the deep\r\nconvection due to some easterly shear.  The overall cloud pattern\r\nhas not really improved since earlier advisories, and the initial\r\nintensity remains 50 kt.  This is supported by Dvorak estimates of\r\nT3.5/55 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.  Although Hilda's\r\nintensity has been steady for the past 12 hours, easterly shear\r\nis relaxing, and the cyclone should be able to strengthen soon.\r\nHilda is forecast to be in a low-shear environment and over sea\r\nsurface temperatures of 27-29C during the next three days or so,\r\nduring which time intensification is expected.  On days 4 and 5,\r\nweakening is anticipated as southwesterly shear of 25-35 kt begins\r\nto affect the cyclone.  The NHC intensity forecast is near the\r\nupper bound of the guidance and shows a peak intensity occurring in\r\nabout 48 hours.\r\n\r\nHilda is moving due west, or 270/11 kt.  The cyclone should turn\r\nwest-northwestward by 36 hours as it approaches a weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  Then, a mid- to upper-level low is expected to\r\ndevelop north of the Hawaiian Islands in about three days, which\r\nshould cause Hilda to turn northwestward and north-northwestward on\r\ndays 4 and 5.  The track guidance generally agrees on this scenario,\r\nbut there is significant discrepancy on how sharply Hilda will turn\r\nafter 72 hours.  The GFS and GFDL, which depict a stronger cyclone,\r\nhave sharper turns and end up on the east side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  The ECMWF, on the other hand, does not intensify Hilda as\r\nmuch and is well to the west of the other track models.  The updated\r\nNHC track forecast shows a sharper turn than in the previous\r\nadvisory, but the turn is not nearly as sharp as suggested by the\r\nGFS, GFDL, and the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 12.6N 135.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 12.8N 137.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 13.2N 139.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 13.9N 141.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 14.7N 143.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 16.1N 147.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 18.0N 149.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 20.5N 150.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hilda","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015\r\n\r\nInfrared satellite data, along with VIIRS moonlight visible imagery\r\nand a just received AMSR-2 overpass, show that Hilda is maintaining\r\nstrong convection near the center.  However, the system continues to\r\nhave a sheared appearence, which is somewhat surprising since the\r\navailable data show less than 10 kt of shear.  The various satellite\r\nintensity estimates range between 45-55 kt, so the initial intensity\r\nremains 50 kt.  The cirrus outflow is good to the west and poor to\r\nthe east.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/11.  For the next 48-72 hours, Hilda\r\nshould be steered westward to west-northwestward by the deep-layer\r\nsubtropical ridge to its north.  After that time, a mid- to\r\nupper-level low is expected to develop north of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands, which should cause Hilda to turn northwestward and\r\nnorth-northwestward.  The track guidance again generally agrees\r\non this scenario, but there remains a significant spread in how\r\nsharply Hilda will turn based on the strength of the cyclone after\r\n72 hours.  The GFS, GFDL, and GFDN, which depict a stronger cyclone,\r\nhave sharper turns and end up on the east side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  The ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean forecast a weaker\r\nHilda, and they show a more westward motion.  The UKMET and the\r\nvarious consensus models are between these extremes.  The new\r\nforecast track, which is little changed from the previous track,\r\nfollows this part of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models are in good agreement that whatever shear is\r\noccurring should diminish in 24 hours or less.  This should allow a\r\nfaster rate of development, with Hilda forecast to become a\r\nhurricane in 24-36 hours and reach its peak intensity in 48-72\r\nhours.  After 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong\r\nsouthwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures, and this combination should cause significant\r\nweakening.  The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from\r\nthe previous forecast and is in best overall agreement with the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 12.8N 136.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 13.0N 138.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 13.6N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 14.3N 142.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 15.1N 144.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 16.5N 147.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 18.5N 149.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 20.5N 150.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilda","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015\r\n\r\nHilda has undergone rapid intensification during the past several\r\nhours, with a small eye forming in the middle of the central dense\r\novercast.  The initial intensity, however, is somewhat uncertain due\r\nto a large spread in the satellite estimates.  Subjective Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt and 65 kt, while the latest\r\nAMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA are 75 kt and 60 kt.  In\r\naddition, there is a CIMSS Satellite consensus estimate of about 60\r\nkt.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 70\r\nkt.  The shear observed this morning seems to have diminished, as\r\nthe outflow is increasing in the eastern semicircle.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is slightly faster at 275/13.  For the next 48\r\nhours or so, Hilda should be steered westward to west-northwestward\r\nby the deep-layer subtropical ridge to its north.  After that time,\r\na mid- to upper-level low is expected to develop north of the\r\nHawaiian Islands, which should cause Hilda to turn generally\r\nnorthwestward.  The track guidance again generally agrees on this\r\nscenario, and while the GFDL and GFDN models remain right outliers\r\nthere is better overall agreement on how sharply Hilda will turn\r\nthan for the previous forecast.  The new forecast track is nudged a\r\nlittle to the west of the previous track based mostly on the\r\ncurrent position and motion, and it lies near the consensus models\r\nand the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nIt is unclear how long the current rapid intensification will last.\r\nThe Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows about a\r\n30 percent chance of a 25 kt increase in strength during the next\r\n24 hours.  However, the cloud pattern of the hurricane still has a\r\nragged appearance, and due to the small size of the system any\r\nunfavorable aspect of the environment could stop intensification.\r\nThe new forecast compromises between these extremes and calls for\r\ncontinued strengthening at a slower rate through 36 hours.  After\r\n48-72 hours, the cyclone is expected to encounter strong\r\nsouthwesterly vertical shear and decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures, and this combination should cause significant\r\nweakening.  The new intensity forecast remains in best overall\r\nagreement with the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 12.7N 138.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 13.0N 139.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 13.7N 142.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 14.4N 144.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 15.2N 145.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 17.0N 148.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 19.0N 150.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 20.5N 151.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hilda","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP102015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 07 2015\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to intensify at a rapid pace.  An earlier\r\nAMSR-2 microwave overpass revealed that Hilda's inner core was\r\nextremely compact.  In addition, visible and infrared geostationary\r\nsatellite imagery indicates that the system's eye has become better\r\ndefined, and the areal extent of cold cloud-top temperatures\r\nsurrounding the eye has increased over the past several hours.  The\r\ncurrent intensity estimate is raised to 90 kt, in accordance with a\r\nDvorak estimate from TAFB.  There is strong upper-level outflow\r\nassociated with the cyclone, particularly over the western\r\nsemicircle of the circulation.\r\n\r\nHilda's intensification is forecast to continue over the next 12 to\r\n24 hours, while vertical wind shear is expected to remain weak.  In\r\nabout 48 hours, the hurricane is forecast to begin encountering\r\nstronger shear associated with an upper-tropospheric trough near the\r\nHawaiian Islands. Global models predict that the shear will increase\r\ngreatly beyond 72 hours.  Therefore a weakening trend is forecast to\r\ncommence in 48 hours, with rapid weakening likely in the latter part\r\nof the forecast period.  The official intensity forecast is in good\r\nagreement with the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is slightly north of due west, or\r\n280/13 kt.  The track forecast reasoning has not changed much since\r\nthe last advisory.  Hilda's track should gradually bend toward the\r\nwest-northwest and northwest over the next 96 hours or so, as the\r\ncyclone moves to the south of a mid-level ridge and approaches a\r\ncyclonic circulation just to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.\r\nNear the end of the forecast period, the rapidly weakening system\r\nshould become a more shallow circulation, and turn more toward the\r\nwest within the low- to mid-tropospheric flow.  The official track\r\nforecast is in good agreement with the latest dynamical model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nSince Hilda will be moving into the central Pacific basin very\r\nsoon, future information on this system will be issued by the\r\nCentral Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 13.0N 139.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n900 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015\r\n\r\nThe last few hours of visible imagery indicated that the large low\r\npressure area located well to the south-southwest of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula had developed a sufficiently well-defined\r\ncenter of circulation, even if the overall circulation itself was\r\nstill somewhat elongated.  Also, deep convection has been forming\r\ncloser to this center over the past few hours, and Dvorak estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB were T2.0/30 kt and T2.5/35 kt, respectively.\r\nAdvisories have therefore been initiated, and the initial intensity\r\nestimate is 30 kt.\r\n\r\nSince the center has just recently become more apparent, the\r\ninitial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/10 kt.  The depression\r\nis being steered west-northwestward between a mid- to upper-level\r\nlow located to its southwest near 17N125W and a large mid-level\r\nhigh centered over the southwestern United States.  This pattern is\r\nexpected to cause the cyclone to accelerate northwestward within\r\nthe next 12 hours and continue that trajectory through day 4.  The\r\ncross-track spread among the track models is small, but there are\r\nsome speed differences.  For example, the ECMWF is the fastest model\r\nwhile the HWRF and GFDL are two of the slowest.  The official track\r\nforecast is a little faster than the TVCE model consensus and leans\r\ncloser toward the GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nThe depression only has another 24-36 hours before it reaches sea\r\nsurface temperatures colder than 26 degrees Celsius.  In addition,\r\nwater vapor imagery shows a large area of mid-/upper-level dry air\r\nimpinging on the southwestern side of the circulation.  Given the\r\nsystem's large and asymmetric appearance, and the short window of\r\nfavorable conditions, significant strengthening is not likely, and\r\nthe official forecast shows the depression just reaching tropical\r\nstorm intensity within the next day or so.  This forecast most\r\nclosely follows the intensity consensus.  The cyclone should become\r\na remnant low by day 3 and dissipate by day 5, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 16.8N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 18.1N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 19.8N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 21.8N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 23.7N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 26.4N 127.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 28.5N 131.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-08-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n300 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the depression is poorly organized\r\nwith an elongated cloud pattern from northwest to southeast and no\r\nappreciable banding near the apparent center.  Dvorak estimates,\r\nhowever, are unchanged from 6 hours ago, so the initial intensity\r\nwill remain 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression has not been easy to locate with\r\novernight satellite images, with little help from microwave data as\r\nwell. Consequently, the initial motion estimate of 305/14 is based\r\nprimarily on extrapolation from the previous forecast.  Despite a\r\nlarge initial position uncertainty, model guidance is in pretty good\r\nagreement on a northwestward track continuing for the next few\r\ndays.  This agreement is apparently due to a well-defined steering\r\npattern between a mid- to upper-level low located to the southwest\r\nof the depression and a large mid-level high centered over the\r\nsouthwestern United States.  While there are some speed differences,\r\noverall the model guidance hasn't changed much from the last cycle,\r\nand the latest NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous\r\none.\r\n\r\nAlthough the shear is not high, the cyclone only has about a day to\r\nstrengthen before it reaches cool waters.  Given the large size of\r\nthe depression, along with its poor initial structure, significant\r\nstrengthening seems unlikely. The intensity models are in fairly\r\ngood agreement with the latest official forecast that shows no big\r\nchanges in the next day or so.  Cooler waters, drier air, and an\r\nincrease in southeasterly shear should cause the cyclone to\r\ntransition into a remnant low by day 3.  The latest NHC intensity\r\nprediction is close to the previous one and the model consensus\r\nIVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 17.6N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 18.9N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.7N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 22.7N 121.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 24.3N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 27.0N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 29.0N 131.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-08-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015\r\n\r\nTropical Depression 11-E remains poorly organized with an elongated\r\ncloud pattern oriented from northwest to southeast, associated with\r\na decrease in convective intensity and coverage as well. Although\r\nthe depression barely meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone, a\r\nblend of available satellite intensity estimates support maintaining\r\nan intensity of 30 kt for this advisory,\r\n\r\nCirrus outflow has obscured the low-level center, so the initial\r\nposition and motion estimate of 305/15 kt are based on\r\nextrapolation, continuity with the previous forecast, and two\r\nrecent SSMI and SSMI/S microwave passes that showed a ragged-looking\r\ninner core. The depression is caught between converging\r\nsoutheasterly streamflows associated with a deep-layer anticyclone\r\nlocated over the southwestern United States and a mid-/upper-level\r\nlow located about 600 n mi west of the cyclone. The models are in\r\nexcellent agreement on this steering pattern remaining stable for\r\nthe next several days, which should keep the depression moving in a\r\nnorthwestward direction until dissipation occurs by 96 hours. The\r\nofficial forecast track is essentially just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and lies roughly midway between the\r\nconsensus models TVCE and GFEX.\r\n\r\nThe deep-layer 850-200 mb wind shear is relatively low, but recent\r\nUW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that the depression is moving into\r\na region of 15-20 kt southeasterly mid-level shear. The latter\r\nshear, in conjunction with much drier mid-level air, should cap any\r\nfurther intensification, and induce weakening by 24 hours when the\r\ncyclone moves over sub-26C SSTs. Transition into a remnant low in\r\nnow expected by 36-48 hours, with dissipation forecast to occur by\r\nday 4, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nIVCN intensity model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 18.5N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 19.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 21.8N 120.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 23.6N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 25.3N 125.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 27.6N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-08-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015\r\n\r\nConvection associated with the depression has continued to become\r\nfragmented and less organized. Multiple small swirls have been noted\r\nin visible satellite imagery rotating around the mean center of the\r\nlarger cyclonic gyre, with two notable vorticity centers located\r\nnear 19.4N 115.8W and 18.4N 117.7W. The initial position is roughly\r\nhalfway between those two vortices. The initial intensity remains at\r\n30 kt, which is consistent with available satellite intensity\r\nestimates.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 305/15 kt. The NHC model\r\nguidance remains in very good agreement on the depression\r\nmaintaining a northwestward motion for the next 72-96 hours, and the\r\nNHC forecast track is, therefore, just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe depression is expected to move over sub-26C SSTs after 12 hours\r\nand into a drier and more stable airmass, which should result in\r\nthe system degenerating into a remnant low within the next 24\r\nhours. Dissipation is forecast to occur by day 4, if not sooner. The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN intensity model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 19.3N 117.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 20.7N 119.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 22.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 24.3N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 25.7N 126.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 28.1N 130.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression is not very well organized.  Satellite\r\nimages indicate that the circulation is elongated from\r\nnorth-northwest to south-southeast with multiple centers along the\r\ntrough axis.  The associated deep convection has been shrinking, and\r\nonly a small patch remains on the west side of the circulation.  The\r\ninitial intensity estimate remains 30 kt, in agreement with the\r\nDvorak classification from TAFB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS.  The\r\ndepression is headed toward cooler water and an environment of\r\ndrier air and stronger shear.  These unfavorable conditions should\r\ncause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday and\r\nlikely dissipate in about four days, or possibly sooner.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and follows\r\nthe trend in the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe depression is situated between a mid- to upper-level low to its\r\nsouthwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United\r\nStates.  These features are expected to continue to steer the\r\ndepression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward\r\naway from land until it dissipates.  The NHC track forecast has\r\nbeen adjusted to the south of the previous one, mainly to account\r\nfor a more southerly initial position.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 19.7N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 21.2N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 23.3N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 24.9N 126.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 26.0N 128.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 27.7N 132.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015\r\n\r\nThere have not been many changes with the depression overnight.\r\nA small area of deep convection is lingering north of the apparent\r\ncenter, with the rest of the circulation looking rather stretched.\r\nA partial ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of about 30 kt, so this\r\nwill be the initial intensity. The depression is moving across\r\nmarginally warm waters, with shear and drier air forecast to\r\nincrease notably by Tuesday.  It will take some time for the large\r\ncirculation to spin down within these unfavorable conditions, so the\r\nofficial forecast only calls for gradual weakening, in agreement\r\nwith the previous forecast and the intensity consensus. Remnant low\r\nstatus is expected within 24 hours due to the cyclone passing over\r\ncooler waters.\r\n\r\nIt is difficult to locate the center with microwave data suggesting\r\nthat the circulation remains elongated from northwest to southeast,\r\nand the latest satellite fixes are roughly 100 nm apart. Thus the\r\ninitial motion estimate of 310/15 is primarily based on continuity\r\nfrom the previous forecast.  No changes to the synoptic pattern are\r\nexpected with the depression lying between a mid- to upper-level low\r\nto its southwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern\r\nUnited States.  These features are expected to continue to steer the\r\ndepression, or its remnants, west-northwestward to northwestward\r\naway from land until it dissipates.  The NHC track forecast is very\r\nclose to the previous one, leaning toward the GFS/ECMWF side of the\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 20.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 22.1N 122.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 23.9N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 25.2N 127.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 26.3N 129.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 28.0N 132.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 17 2015\r\n\r\nConvection associated with the depression is becoming sheared out\r\nto the northwest of the low-level center, the latter of which is\r\nbecoming increasingly difficult to locate since the circulation is\r\nelongated northwest to southeast. The intensity will remain at 30\r\nkt, based on continuity with the previous advisory and a Dvorak CI\r\nvalue of T2.0 from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate of 305/14 is based on continuity with\r\nthe previous forecast track and recent SSMI/S and AMSU overpasses.\r\nThe depression is expected to remain embedded within a deep\r\nsoutheasterly steering flow, which should cause the cyclone to\r\ncontinue on a northwestward to west-northwestward course until\r\ndissipation by 96 hours. The NHC model guidance is tightly clustered\r\nthrough 36 hours, and the official forecast track lies close to the\r\nconsensus models TVCE and GFEX.\r\n\r\nThe depression is now over sub-26 deg C sea-surface temperatures\r\nwith colder water ahead of the cyclone. The combination of colder\r\nocean conditions, drier mid-level air, and increasing southeasterly\r\nvertical wind shear should result in the system's rapid demise\r\nduring the next 12 hours or so. The cyclone is expected to become\r\na remnant low pressure system by 12 hours, and dissipate by 96 hours\r\nwhen the system will be over 22 deg C to 23 deg C SSTs. The official\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely\r\nfollows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 21.8N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 23.2N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 24.9N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 26.1N 127.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 27.1N 129.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 29.0N 131.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory\r\nand is now sheared more than 75 n mi northwest of the center, barely\r\nenough to produce a satellite classification of T1.5/25 kt, which\r\nis the intensity used for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/16 kt.  There is no change to\r\nthe previous forecast track or reasoning. The model guidance\r\nremains in excellent agreement on the cyclone moving northwestward\r\nto west-northwestward through the 72-hour forecast cycle. The\r\nofficial track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory\r\nand is similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCE and GFEX\r\nthrough 24 hours, and then lies close to the GFEX solution after\r\nthat.\r\n\r\nThe depression is now over sub-24 deg C sea-surface temperatures,\r\nwhich means that it is not long for this world. The cyclone is\r\nforecast to steadily move over colder ocean temperatures and into\r\na drier and more stable air mass, which should result in further\r\nerosion of the convective cloud pattern. Therefore, the cyclone is\r\nexpected to become a remnant low pressure system within the next 12\r\nhours, and dissipate by 96 hours as the system spins down over 22\r\ndeg C SSTs. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 23.1N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 24.4N 124.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 25.8N 127.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 26.9N 129.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 27.9N 130.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 29.8N 132.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression has lacked significant deep convection for about six\r\nhours now and is well on its way to becoming a remnant low.  The\r\ninitial wind speed estimate remains 25 kt for this advisory.  Since\r\nthe depression is over water temperatures of around 24C and well\r\nembedded in a stable air mass, significant convection is unlikely\r\nto return.  Therefore, degeneration to a remnant low is expected to\r\noccur within the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to\r\ndissipate in a few days.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving northwestward at a fairly quick 18 kt\r\nsteered by the flow between a mid- to upper-level low to its\r\nsouthwest and a subtropical ridge over the southwestern United\r\nStates.  A slower west-northwestward to northwestward motion is\r\nexpected until the cyclone dissipates.  The NHC official track\r\nforecast is a little to the north of the previous one, trending\r\ntoward the latest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 24.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 25.6N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 27.0N 128.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 28.1N 130.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 29.3N 131.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP112015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112015\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression has not had organized deep convection for quite some\r\ntime now and no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone.\r\nTherefore, this system has become a non-convective remnant low\r\nand this is the last advisory.  All of the models gradually weaken\r\nthe low during the next couple of days, and this is reflected below\r\nin the forecast.  A slower west-northwestward to northwestward\r\nmotion is expected until the cyclone dissipates in a few days, and\r\nthe track forecast is close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI,  WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 24.9N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 25.9N 127.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 27.0N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 28.0N 131.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 29.0N 132.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 24 2015\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows deep convection associated with\r\nthe area of low pressure located well southwest of the southern tip\r\nof Baja California has become better organized and increased in\r\ncoverage since yesterday.  Additionally, an 1852 UTC ASCAT-B\r\nscatterometer overpass indicated that the surface circulation has\r\nbecome sufficiently well defined.  Accordingly, advisories are being\r\ninitiated on the twelfth tropical depression of the 2015 eastern\r\nPacific hurricane season.  Dvorak intensity estimates support an\r\ninitial intensity of 30 kt.  The cyclone is expected to traverse\r\nwarm sea surface temperatures and move within a marginally conducive\r\nthermodynamic environment during the entire forecast period,\r\nresulting in only gradual intensification.  Around day 4, the\r\nlarge-scale guidance and the SHIPS model show increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear which should induce a weakening trend and this\r\nis also reflected in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be at 270/3 kt.  A low- to\r\nmid-level ridge extending westward to the north of the cyclone\r\nfrom northern Mexico should influence a generally westward motion\r\nduring the next couple of days.  Beyond the 48 hour period, global\r\nand hurricane models indicate a deep-layer trough weakening the\r\nridge to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands causing the\r\ndepression to turn toward the west-northwest and continuing in this\r\ndirection through day 5.  The NHC forecast is based on a blend of\r\nthe GFEX (GFS/ECMWF) and the TVCX multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 13.1N 130.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 13.0N 131.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 12.8N 132.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 12.8N 133.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 13.2N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 15.0N 139.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 16.6N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 17.8N 146.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern has not changed much during the last\r\nseveral hours.  Deep convection remains mainly confined to the\r\nwestern portion of the circulation due to southeasterly wind shear.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the\r\nUniversity of Wisconsin all support maintaining the initial wind\r\nspeed at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to lessen\r\nlater today and it should be relatively light for the next few\r\ndays.  In addition, sea surface temperatures along the expected\r\ntrack are between 28-29 deg C, which are favorable for\r\nintensification.  Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely\r\nduring the next 3 to 4 days.  The global models show an increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear by the end of the forecast period, and that\r\nshould cause the intensity of the system to level off. The GFDL and\r\nHWRF models are the most aggressive bringing this system to\r\nhurricane strength in a couple of days with continued strengthening\r\nthereafter.  Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show much less\r\nstrengthening.  Given the expected conducive environmental\r\nconditions, the NHC intensity forecast is increased a little from\r\nthe previous one and is good agreement with the intensity model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving slowly westward, 275/4 kt. A general westward\r\nmotion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the\r\nnext day or so while mid-level ridging builds to the north and\r\nnortheast of the system.  After that time, a west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion is predicted due to a large-scale trough\r\neroding the western periphery of the ridge.  The NHC track forecast\r\nis nudged to the left of the previous one and is close to the\r\nvarious consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 13.2N 131.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 13.0N 132.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 12.8N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 13.0N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 13.6N 137.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 15.3N 140.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 16.8N 144.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 18.5N 147.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression is exhibiting a sheared cloud pattern, with an\r\nasymmetric distribution of convection over the western semicircle\r\nof the cyclone's circulation.  The cyclone's current appearance\r\nmakes sense, given that SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS shear\r\nanalyses are indicating moderate southeasterly shear. Satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 2.0 and 2.5, respectively.\r\nAlthough the depression's cloud pattern has become somewhat better\r\norganized since late yesterday, the initial intensity is kept at 30\r\nkt until there is more definitive proof that the system has reached\r\ntropical storm strength.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/05.  A deep longwave trough over\r\nthe eastern Pacific has temporarily weakened the subtropical ridge\r\nwest of 130W, which has left the cyclone in a weak easterly steering\r\nflow. This synoptic pattern is expected to persist for the next\r\ncouple of days, which should maintain the slow westward motion. In\r\nabout 48 hours, the subtropical ridge is forecast to rebuild, which\r\nshould result in a west-northwestward track with an increase in\r\nforward speed. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a 290- to\r\n300-degree heading throughout the remainder of the forecast period.\r\nThe official forecast is very near the previous one, even though the\r\nmulti-model consensus has shifted toward the left. It has remained\r\nabout the same mostly because the GFS solution, which keeps the\r\ncyclone very weak with a track far to the south, has largely been\r\ndiscounted.\r\n\r\nThe shear currently affecting the depression is forecast to relax\r\nin about 24 hours and remain low through about 3 days. The decrease\r\nin shear, combined with anomalously warm waters of 28 to 29 deg C\r\nand a moistening environment along the cyclone's path, suggest that\r\nintensification is likely.  The one limiting factor could be how\r\nlong it takes for the inner core of the cyclone to become better\r\norganized.  By early next week, the cyclone should encounter\r\nwesterly shear associated with the mid-oceanic trough anchored near\r\nthe longitude of Hawaii, and the shear should be strong enough to\r\nresult in a leveling off of the intensity and then weakening.\r\nThere is a significant difference between the statistical and\r\ndynamical intensity guidance this cycle. The official intensity\r\nforecast is above the previous one and close to, but a little lower\r\nthan, the stronger dynamical model guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 13.2N 132.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 13.1N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 13.1N 134.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 13.4N 136.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 14.1N 138.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 15.8N 141.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 17.2N 145.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 18.7N 148.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe organization of the cyclone's cloud pattern has increased\r\nsignificantly since yesterday.  The center of circulation appears to\r\nbe near the eastern edge or barely underneath a small mass of deep\r\nconvection instead of being exposed to the east. Satellite pictures\r\nalso show increased banding, and low-cloud lines suggest a more\r\nvigorous circulation. Dvorak intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from\r\nTAFB and SAB reflect the increase in organization, and the initial\r\nintensity is raised to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/05.  A deep longwave trough over\r\nthe eastern Pacific has temporarily weakened the mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge west of 130W, which has left the cyclone in a weak\r\neasterly steering flow.  This synoptic pattern is expected to\r\npersist for the next day or so, which should should allow the slow\r\nwestward motion to continue.  After 36 to 48 hours, the longwave\r\ntrough over the eastern Pacific should lift out and the subtropical\r\nridge is forecast to rebuild westward into the central Pacific and\r\ncause Ignacio to move on a west-northwestward course. The track\r\nguidance has shifted significantly to the left and has been\r\nshifting toward the left during the past few cycles in response to\r\nthe better handling of the strength of the subtropical ridge.  The\r\nnew track forecast is adjusted significantly to the left but not as\r\nfar south as the multi-model consensus or the ECMWF and GFS ensemble\r\nmeans.  The official track forecast places much less weight on the\r\nECMWF solution that spuriously splits the mid-level vortex in 3 days\r\ntime, which results in a northward jump in the track.\r\n\r\nOn the large scale, global models show decreasing shear and enhanced\r\nlower to middle tropospheric moisture along the cyclone's path\r\nduring the next 2 to 3 days while it moves over anomalously warm\r\nSSTs of 28 to 29 deg C.  These favorable factors should lead to\r\nsteady if not quick intensification, with the one limiting factor\r\nlikely to be how quickly the cyclone can establish an inner core.\r\nThe intensity forecast late in the period depends very much on\r\nwhere Ignacio is, and the divergence in the track guidance makes\r\nthat intensity forecast after about 3 days of low confidence.  A\r\nmore southern track, as is now being shown in some of the guidance,\r\ncould result in an even stronger cyclone than indicated.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is increased again over the previous\r\none and is close to, but below, the dynamical model guidance and the\r\nFSU Superensemble output that has consistently been higher than the\r\nstatistical models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 13.0N 133.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 12.9N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 12.9N 135.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 13.2N 137.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 13.9N 139.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 15.4N 142.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 16.7N 146.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery and the latest UW-CIMSS shear\r\nanalysis indicates that the southeasterly shear has diminished this\r\nevening.  Subsequently, Ignacio had quickly become better organized\r\nthis evening with a small Central Dense Overcast forming over the\r\nsurface circulation.  Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB\r\nand SAB, and a recent objective ADT current intensity estimate\r\nyields an initial intensity of 40 kt for this advisory.  The shear\r\nis forecast to remain relatively light and from the east to\r\nsoutheast during the next 3-4 days.  Warm sea surface temperatures\r\nand an atmospheric environment conducive for further strengthening\r\nshould allow the cyclone to intensify during the next 96 hours and\r\nbecome a hurricane in 36 hours.  Afterwards, the upper level winds\r\nbecome less favorable as Ignacio approaches an established mid- to\r\nupper level trough near the Hawaiian Islands.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory and is based on a\r\ncompromise of the HWRF hurricane model and the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nBased on Visible imagery and a recent microwave image from the GPM\r\nsatellite, Ignacio appears to have been moving west-southwestward\r\nduring the past 12-18 hours, and has recently turned more toward the\r\nwest or, 260/05 kt.  Ignacio should continue moving in this general\r\ndirection during the next 24 hours or so within the southwestern\r\nperipheral flow of the subtropical ridge.  After that time, a\r\ngradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected as the cyclone\r\nrounds the southwestern extent of the ridge.  The official forecast\r\ntrack has again been shifted toward the left, primarily due to the\r\nprevious west-southwestward motion, and agrees with both the GFEX\r\n(GFS/ECMWF blend) and the TVCX multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 12.3N 133.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 12.2N 134.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 12.3N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 12.8N 138.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 13.6N 140.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 14.9N 143.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 16.4N 146.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 17.7N 150.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nIgnacio continues to gradually strengthen. Deep convection has been\r\npersisting mainly over the western half of the circulation and\r\nrecent microwave images show increased banding as well.  The Dvorak\r\nclassifications from all agencies have increased to T3.0/45 kt, and\r\nthe initial intensity is set at that value.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is currently in a generally favorable environment\r\nof about 10 kt of southeasterly wind shear and over 29 deg C waters.\r\nSince these conditions are not expected to change much during the\r\nnext few days, additional intensification appears likely.  Although\r\nall of the intensity guidance agrees on the strengthening trend,\r\nthey disagree on the intensification rate.  The HWRF model shows\r\nIgnacio strengthening fastest, while the SHIPS and LGEM models show\r\nthe cyclone gaining strength more gradually.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is between those scenarios and in best agreement with\r\nthe intensity model consensus.  Some weakening is possible by the\r\nend of the forecast period due to less favorable conditions.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of the storm is difficult to locate.  Using\r\nrecent microwave images and continuity, the initial motion estimate\r\nis 260/6 kt.  Mid-level ridging is expected to build to the north\r\nand northeast of Ignacio during the next several days.  This pattern\r\nshould cause the cyclone to move a little faster westward today and\r\nthen west-northwestward on Thursday.  A continued west-northwestward\r\nmotion is expected through the remainder of the forecast period.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and lies close\r\nto a consensus of the models with a little more weight on the ECMWF\r\nsolution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 12.3N 134.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 12.3N 135.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 12.6N 137.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 13.5N 139.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 14.4N 140.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 15.8N 144.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 17.1N 147.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 18.3N 151.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nConvection has been increasing near the center of Ignacio with a\r\ncentral dense overcast feature taking shape.  The latest microwave\r\nimages also show more organization, with signs of a primitive inner\r\ncore. A blend of the subjective Dvorak estimates gives an initial\r\nwind speed of 50 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nConditions appear favorable for strengthening of Ignacio, with a\r\nwarm and moist environment likely for the next several days in the\r\nstorm's path.  The biggest question mark is the vertical wind shear,\r\nwhich some models show increasing a bit in a day or two.  Perhaps\r\nthis is why none of the reliable models show any more than gradual\r\nstrengthening, although the SHIPS rapid intensification index shows\r\na 28 percent chance of a 30-kt change over the next 24 hours.\r\nConsidering most of the guidance has had a low bias this year, the\r\nofficial forecast will stay higher than the model consensus, but not\r\nquite as high as the Florida State Superensemble. Some weakening is\r\nanticipated by the end of the forecast due to increasing shear and\r\ncooler waters.\r\n\r\nA recent microwave pass shows that Ignacio is on track and is\r\nmoving about 265/8.  The storm should be moving around the\r\nsouthern and southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge for\r\nthe next several days, causing the storm to move westward today and\r\nthen west-northwestward on Thursday through late week.  The latest\r\nguidance has shifted a bit to the north at day 3 and beyond,\r\nperhaps due to a slightly weaker subtropical ridge to the northeast\r\nof Hawaii.  The official forecast is adjusted northward at long\r\nrange, although it remains south of the model consensus at 120\r\nhours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 12.2N 135.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 12.3N 136.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 13.1N 138.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 14.1N 140.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 15.1N 142.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 16.5N 145.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 18.0N 148.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 19.3N 151.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nIgnacio continues to strengthen with plenty of tightly curved bands\r\naround the center and an impressive outflow pattern.  Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB/SAB are both 55 kt, and this will be the initial\r\nintensity.  The environment appears favorable for further\r\nintensification with light-to-moderate shear and warm waters for the\r\nnext several days anticipated.  There remains some question as to\r\nthe amount of vertical shear expected, so it is prudent not to show\r\nrapid intensification at this time.  Still, the most likely scenario\r\nis continued strengthening, which is in line with the latest\r\nintensity guidance.  The NHC forecast is raised from the previous\r\none and lies above the intensity consensus, just a bit below the\r\nFlorida State Superensemble.  Most of the guidance is showing some\r\nweakening at long range due to an increase in shear and less\r\nfavorable thermodynamic conditions.\r\n\r\nScatterometer data indicate the center of Ignacio has continued\r\nmoving west-southwestward a little longer than anticipated, although\r\nrecent satellite images suggest a more westward track has started.\r\nThe current motion estimate is 270/10.  A west- northwestward track\r\nis likely to start overnight and continue for the next several days\r\nwhile Ignacio is steered around the subtropical ridge.  There is\r\nconsiderable uncertainty about the long-range forecast, with the\r\nmodels struggling on how intact the ridge remains to the northeast\r\nof Hawaii.  On this cycle, the ECMWF and HWRF models have shifted\r\nwell leftward, dragging the consensus a good bit south of the\r\nprevious forecast.  The official forecast is moved in that\r\ndirection, although remaining north of the model consensus at day 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 11.9N 136.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 12.3N 137.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 13.2N 139.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 14.1N 141.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 143.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 16.5N 146.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 17.8N 149.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z 19.0N 152.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nIgnacio's convective cloud pattern has continued to improve and\r\nrecent passive microwave satellite imagery indicates that the\r\ncyclone has developed a large but closed eye, which is embedded in\r\nthe center of a smooth CDO feature. Upper-level outflow is\r\nwell-defined in all quadrants and is expanding. The initial\r\nintensity of 65 kt is based on an average of satellite intensity\r\nestimates of T4.4/75 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT, T4.0/65 kt from TAFB,\r\nand T3.5/55 kt from SAB. This makes Ignacio the seventh hurricane of\r\nthe 2015 eastern North Pacific season.\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite fixes indicate that Ignacio has finally made\r\nthe expected turn toward the west-northwest, and the motion estimate\r\nis now 290/11 kt. A west-northwestward motion is expected to\r\ncontinue throughout the forecast period due to a strong subtropical\r\nridge to the north of Ignacio producing a deep layer of\r\neast-southeasterly steering flow. Although the GFS and ECMWF models\r\ndiffer widely on the track of the hurricane after 72 hours, the\r\nother reliable guidance models lie between those two aforementioned\r\nextremes. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the\r\nprevious advisory track and a blend of the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions are expected to generally be favorable for\r\nadditional strengthening throughout the forecast period. The main\r\nhindering factor will be modest vertical wind shear for the next\r\n24-36 hours, after which the shear is expected to decrease to less\r\nthan 10 kt. However, given the very impressive outflow pattern that\r\nhas developed, along with the aforementioned eye feature, rapid\r\nintensification is a distinct possibility during the next 24\r\nhours. By days 4 and 5, thermodynamic and oceanic conditions are\r\nexpected to become less favorable, and gradual weakening is\r\nexpected to occur during that time. The official intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is close to the\r\nconsensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 12.2N 137.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 12.8N 138.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 13.8N 140.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 14.6N 142.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 15.4N 144.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 16.7N 147.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 18.1N 150.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nVery cold cloud tops persist near the center of Ignacio, although\r\nthe overall cloud pattern is not very symmetric and no eye is\r\npresent in conventional satellite data. However, microwave images\r\nshow an eye beneath the cirrus clouds, but not well established\r\nin the low-level channel.  Current intensity estimates range from 75\r\nto 90 kt, and since the cloud pattern isn't particularly well\r\norganized, I've elected to go on the low end of the estimates with\r\n75 kt as the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 290/11.  A west-northwestward\r\nmotion is expected to continue throughout the forecast period due to\r\na strong subtropical ridge to the north of Ignacio producing a deep\r\nlayer of east-southeasterly steering flow.  Models are continuing\r\nto struggle with the strength of the ridge in the long range\r\nperiod, with a variety of solutions from the normally reliable\r\nglobal models.  Since the track consensus is virtually unchanged,\r\nthe NHC forecast will stay very close to the previous one and wait\r\nfor a stronger signal before making any significant modifications.\r\n\r\nFurther strengthening seems likely with Ignacio over the next couple\r\nof days with light-to-moderate easterly shear, warm water and a\r\nmoist atmosphere.  By days 3 and 5, thermodynamic and oceanic\r\nconditions are expected to become less favorable, with an increase\r\nin southwesterly shear, and gradual weakening is expected to occur\r\nduring that time. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory, and is close to the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 12.6N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 13.2N 139.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 14.2N 141.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 15.1N 143.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 15.9N 145.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 17.2N 147.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 18.5N 150.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 20.0N 153.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ignacio","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP122015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122015\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nIgnacio continues to produce cloud tops colder than -80C near the\r\ncenter.  A recent GPM over pass showed a 20-25 n mi wide eye\r\nforming under the overcast.  However, the eye is ragged, and the\r\ndeep convection in the eyewall is mainly southwest of the center.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 90 kt and 77 kt,\r\nand the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is estimating 80 kt.  Based\r\non these data, the initial intensity is increased to 80 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 285/11.  There is little change in the\r\nforecast philosophy since the previous advisory, with the\r\nsubtropical ridge north of Ignacio expected to steer the cyclone\r\ngenerally west-northwestward through the forecast period with a\r\ngradual decrease in forward speed.  Some spread in the track\r\nguidance develops by day 5, as the ECMWF turns a weaker Ignacio\r\nwestward while the GFS turns a stronger Ignacio northwestward.\r\nDespite this, the consensus models and the center of the guidance\r\nenvelope are near the previous forecast, and the new forecast is a\r\nslightly faster update of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nIgnacio should remain over warm sea surface temperatures and in an\r\nenvironment of light vertical wind shear for at least the next two\r\ndays, which should allow continued strengthening to a major\r\nhurricane.  After that time, the cyclone should encounter increasing\r\nwesterly shear and move over slightly cooler water, which should\r\nstart a gradual weakening.  The new intensity forecast follows this\r\nscenario and is basically unchanged since the previous advisory.\r\nOne note of uncertainty in the intensity forecast is that the GFS\r\nshear at day 5, which is used in the SHIPS and LGEM models, looks\r\nweaker than that forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET models. Should the\r\nlatter models verify, Ignacio could weaken faster than currently\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nIgnacio is expected to move into the Central Pacific basin at about\r\n1800Z.  Therefore, this is the last advisory on this system by the\r\nNational Hurricane Center.  Subsequent advisories will be issued by\r\nthe Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 12.9N 139.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 13.6N 141.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 14.5N 143.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 15.4N 144.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 16.1N 146.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 17.5N 149.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 20.5N 154.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n300 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure located well to the southwest of the coast\r\nof Mexico has become sufficiently well organized to be classified\r\nas a tropical depression.  Dvorak classifications were T2.0/30 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and the initial\r\nintensity is therefore set at 25 kt.  The environment ahead of the\r\ndepression is characterized by low shear, very warm waters, and a\r\nmoist atmosphere, so strengthening appears likely throughout the\r\nforecast period.  In fact, some of the intensity models are quite\r\naggressive.  Both the SHIPS and LGEM models strengthen the cyclone\r\nto category 3 or 4 intensity in five days, and the GFS deepens the\r\nsystem to a central pressure that typically equates to a category 3\r\nhurricane.  Therefore, the official forecast shows steady\r\nintensification, with the cyclone reaching major hurricane strength\r\nby day 5.  This forecast is slightly below the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe center has been somewhat difficult to locate, but the overall\r\nsystem has been moving quickly westward with a motion estimate of\r\n280/17 kt.  The depression is located to the south of a strong\r\nmid-level ridge located over northern Mexico and the adjacent\r\nPacific waters.  This ridge should continue steering the cyclone\r\nwestward--with a gradual decrease in forward speed--through day 4.\r\nA breakdown of the ridge by day 5 could then support a\r\nwest-northwestward motion at the end of the forecast period.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the\r\nofficial forecast is relatively close the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 10.8N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 11.5N 115.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 12.0N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 12.3N 120.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 12.4N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 12.4N 126.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 13.0N 130.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z 14.5N 134.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n900 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has improved significantly\r\nsince the previous advisory with the establishment of a\r\nwell-defined outflow pattern and several curved convective banding\r\nfeatures. However, the inner-core convection is rather paltry and\r\nlimited at this time, and that is the main reason why the system is\r\nstill a depression despite is otherwise impressive satellite\r\nappearance. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a Dvorak\r\nsatellite classification of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate of 285/15 kt is based on recent\r\nmicrowave satellite fixes. There is no significant change to the\r\nprevious forecast track or reasoning. The cyclone is expected to\r\nremain south of a deep-layer ridge located over northern Mexico and\r\nthe adjacent Pacific Ocean, and move generally westward along the\r\nsouthern periphery of the ridge for the next 3-4 days. By 96-120\r\nhours, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken as a\r\nmid-latitude trough drops southward, forcing the cyclone to move on\r\na slower west-northwestward track. The NHC track guidance remains in\r\ngood agreement on this developing scenario, and the official\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory track and follows the\r\nconsensus models GFEX and TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe environment ahead of the depression is expected to be quite\r\nfavorable for strengthening for the next 5 days or so due to low\r\nvertical wind shear, SSTs greater than 29 deg C, and moist\r\nmid-level air. Both the SHIPS and LGEM models remain fairly\r\naggressive by making the cyclone to category 3 or 4 hurricane,\r\nrespectively, by days 4 and 5. Given these favorable conditions and\r\nthe recent improvement in the depression's structure, the official\r\nintensity forecast has been nudged upward from the previous\r\nadvisory, and follows the IVCN consensus model through 96 hours,\r\nand uses a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models at 120 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 11.7N 114.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 12.1N 116.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 12.5N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 12.7N 121.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 12.9N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 13.0N 127.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 13.9N 131.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 15.5N 134.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has become better organized on satellite pictures\r\ntonight, with a ball of convection near the center and some banding\r\nfeatures.  In addition, microwave data show a better defined low-\r\nlevel inner core structure.  Dvorak satellite estimates from\r\nTAFB/SAB are both 35 kt and this will be the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and night visible images give an initial motion of 285/13.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to remain south of a deep-layer ridge\r\nlocated over northern Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean, and move\r\ngenerally westward along the southern periphery of the ridge for the\r\nnext 3-4 days.  By day 4, the western portion of the ridge is\r\nforecast to weaken some as a mid-latitude trough drops southward,\r\nsteering Jimena on a west-northwestward track.  Overall, the model\r\nguidance is just a bit faster by the end of the forecast period, and\r\nthe NHC forecast follows that trend.\r\n\r\nThere are no obvious impediments to intensification for Jimena\r\nduring the next several days, with very warm water, moist mid-level\r\nair and little significant shear.  The statistical and global models\r\nshow a very powerful hurricane developing in a few days, and that\r\nsolution seems likely given the large-scale environment.  Thus, the\r\nofficial intensity forecast has been raised from the previous one,\r\nand the new NHC forecast is near or above the intensity consensus\r\nthroughout most of the period.  This forecast could be conservative\r\nwith the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble showing an even\r\nstronger hurricane.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 12.3N 116.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 12.6N 118.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 13.0N 120.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 13.2N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 13.1N 125.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 13.5N 128.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 16.5N 137.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nJimena is steadily becoming better organized with deep convection\r\npersisting near the center and more pronounced banding developing\r\naround the circulation.  The initial intensity is 40 kt based on\r\nDvorak estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.\r\nEmbedded in an environment of low shear, high moisture, and very\r\nwarm ocean water, Jimena should have no problems continuing to\r\nintensify.  In fact, rapid intensification (RI) is a distinct\r\npossibility during the next 24 hours.  A low-level inner core ring\r\nwas noted in the 37-GHz channel of a 0946 UTC GPM microwave pass,\r\nand the SHIPS RI index is showing a 1 in 3 chance of a 30-kt\r\nintensity change during the next 24 hours.  Therefore, the NHC\r\nintensity forecast shows Jimena becoming a hurricane on Friday.\r\nAfter 24 hours, the overall environment should remain favorable for\r\nstrengthening, and Jimena is forecast to be a major hurricane from\r\nday 3 through day 5.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is a\r\nlittle higher than the IVCN intensity consensus and shows a bit\r\nmore strengthening than the previous forecast through 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe storm has been moving quickly west-northwestward with a 12-hour\r\nmotion of 285/15 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge extends from\r\nnorthwestern Mexico to just east of the Hawaiian Islands, and this\r\nfeature should steer Jimena generally westward during the next 48\r\nhours.  A weakness is expected to develop in the ridge by 72 hours,\r\nwhich should turn the cyclone west-northwestward through day 5.  The\r\ntrack guidance has shifted slightly southward during the first 48\r\nhours, and the updated NHC track forecast follows suit but still\r\nlies a little north of the model consensus.  The updated forecast is\r\nlargely unchanged from the previous one after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 12.4N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 12.7N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 13.0N 122.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 13.1N 124.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 13.1N 126.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 13.9N 129.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 15.5N 134.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 17.0N 137.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nVisible images show that Jimena has several spiral convective bands\r\nemanating away from the center, with the inner bands attempting to\r\nconsolidate into a ring of convection.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB,\r\nSAB, and UW-CIMSS range between 45 and 55 kt, so the initial\r\nintensity is set at 50 kt.  This estimate is also supported by a\r\n1750 UTC ASCAT-B pass, which showed a 45-50 kt wind barb near the\r\ncenter.  Jimena is in an environment of very low shear and abundant\r\nmoisture, and over sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees\r\nCelsius, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI) index now shows\r\nabout a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity change during the\r\nnext 24 hours.  Due to the very favorable conditions, RI is now\r\nexplicitly indicated in the NHC intensity forecast.  Environmental\r\nconditions remain conducive for strengthening after 24 hours, and\r\nJimena is expected to be a major hurricane from 48 hours through\r\nthe end of the forecast period.  Since the statistical models seem\r\nto have been doing a better job than the dynamical models on the\r\nrecent intensification rate, the updated NHC intensity forecast is a\r\nblend of the previous forecast and the SHIPS and LGEM solutions.\r\n\r\nJimena has turned westward as expected, with an initial motion of\r\n275/11 kt.  The cyclone remains located on the southern periphery\r\nof a strong mid-level ridge, and this feature should continue\r\nsteering Jimena westward for the next 36 hours.  After that time, a\r\nweakness in the ridge is expected to develop, which should cause\r\nJimena to turn west-northwestward through the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The track guidance agrees on this scenario and is tightly\r\nclustered for the entire forecast period.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast is close to the model consensus, and the only change from\r\nthe previous forecast is a slight southward shift during the first\r\n48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 12.4N 118.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 12.5N 120.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 12.5N 122.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 12.6N 124.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 13.0N 126.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 14.3N 130.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 16.0N 134.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 17.0N 138.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 27 2015\r\n\r\nJimena has continued to rapidly intensify. Several convective bands\r\nare tightly coiled and wrapping into the center where a small\r\ncentral dense overcast feature has developed during the past couple\r\nof hours. Upper-level outflow is nearly symmetrical and continues\r\nto expand. The initial intensity of 60 kt is based on a blend of\r\nconsensus Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.5/55 kt from\r\nTAFB and SAB, and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T3.9/63 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/12 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The NHC model\r\nguidance is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, and\r\nJimena is expected to move westward along the southern periphery of\r\na strong subtropical ridge for the next 36-48 hours. After that\r\ntime, a turn toward the west-northwest accompanied by a decrease in\r\nforward speed is expected as a mid-latitude trough digs southward\r\nalong 130-135W longitude, weakening the ridge and the steering\r\ncurrents. The new forecast track is essentially just an extension of\r\nthe previous advisory track.\r\n\r\nJimena has been rapidly intensifying for the past 24 hours, so the\r\nquestion now is how long will Jimena continue this develop trend.\r\nThe surrounding atmospheric and oceanic environments are quite\r\nconducive for additional strengthening.  Recent SSMI and SSMI/S\r\nmicrowave satellite images indicate that a nearly closed eye of\r\n15-20 nmi diameter has formed in the low- and mid-levels, which\r\nfavors continued rapid strengthening. Those same images also\r\nindicated that dry mid-level air had wrapped into the northern\r\nsemicircle and had penetrated the inner-core convective region,\r\nwhich could hinder development. However, this hindering factor\r\nshould be short lived given the very robust circulation noted in\r\nconventional satellite imagery, which should quickly mix out any\r\ndry. air intrusions. Therefore, since the vertical wind shear is\r\nforecast to remain less than 10 kt, rapid intensification is\r\nforecast to continue for another 36 hours or so. After that time,\r\nthe expected intense circulation of Jimena should begin to create\r\ncold upwelling since the cyclone will be moving over significantly\r\nlower upper ocean heat content values, which should cap the\r\nintensification process and induce slow weakening by days 4 and 5.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,\r\nand lies between the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which\r\nhave performed quite well thus far with Jimena.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 12.3N 119.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 12.3N 121.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 12.4N 123.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 12.6N 125.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 14.8N 131.7W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 16.5N 136.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 17.5N 139.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Jimena is continuing to rapidly\r\nintensify.  The overall cold cloud canopy has expanded, with well-\r\ndefined banding features around the central dense overcast, which\r\nhas occasionally showed hints of an eye.  The initial intensity is\r\nraised to 70 kt, a blend of the 65 kt subjective Dvorak estimates\r\nand a 77 kt objective value from the UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 270/12 kt.  Jimena is expected\r\nto move westward along the southern periphery of the subtropical\r\nridge for the next 24-36 hours.  After that time a turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest is expected, with some decrease in forward speed\r\nlikely late in the forecast due to a mid-latitude trough weakening\r\nthe ridge.  The track guidance continues to be in remarkable\r\nagreement on the forecast for the next several days, with the NHC\r\nmodel guidance tightly packed near the 0300 UTC forecast track, so\r\nthe new forecast is very close to the previous one.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions are quite favorable for further\r\nstrengthening, with very warm water, high mid-level moisture and\r\nlow shear forecast for at least the next 48 hours. In response to\r\nthese conditions, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is\r\nforecasting a 61 percent chance of a 30 kt increase during the next\r\n24 hours. Thus, the official NHC prediction will continue to\r\nexplicitly indicate rapid intensification for the first day of the\r\nforecast.  Most of the guidance shows the peak intensity around 48\r\nhours, so the NHC forecast will as well, although it remains below\r\nsome of the guidance.  Beyond that time, slightly cooler SSTs are\r\nexpected, along with lower upper-ocean heat content values.\r\nTherefore, slow weakening is indicated from days 3 to 5.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory\r\nafter adjusting for the initial strength, and lies between the\r\nforecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which continue to perform\r\nquite well with Jimena.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 12.1N 121.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 12.2N 122.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 12.3N 124.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 12.8N 126.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 13.6N 128.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 15.4N 133.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 16.9N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 17.8N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nRapid intensification of Jimena continues this morning.  Microwave\r\ndata has shown an eye beneath the central dense overcast, and a\r\nmore definitive eye is just now becoming apparent in infrared\r\nsatellite imagery.  With subjective Dvorak estimates of T4.5/77 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB, and an objective estimate of T4.6/80 kt from\r\nUW-CIMSS, Jimena's initial intensity is raised to 80 kt.\r\n\r\nJimena is expected to remain in an environment of low shear and\r\nover warm water for the duration of the forecast period.  Mid-level\r\nmoisture is high at the moment and is expected to only gradually\r\ndecrease during the next 2 to 3 days.  The SHIPS Rapid\r\nIntensification Index (RII) is showing a 54 percent chance of a\r\n30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours.  Therefore, a\r\ncontinuation of RI appears likely and is explicitly shown in the NHC\r\nintensity forecast.  A peak intensity is expected in about 48 hours,\r\nfollowed by gradual weakening through day 5 due to a slightly drier\r\nenvironment and lower oceanic heat content values.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast is generally a blend of the previous forecast\r\nwith the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  It should be noted that\r\nonce Jimena reaches its peak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in\r\nintensity that deviate from the official forecast are likely due to\r\npossible eyewall replacements.\r\n\r\nJimena appears to have slowed down a bit, and the initial motion is\r\n270/10 kt.  The hurricane remains to the south of an anomalously\r\nstrong ridge that extends southwestward from the southwestern\r\nUnited States, and this feature is expected to keep Jimena on a\r\nwestward course for the next 24 hours.  After that time, the ridge\r\nis expected to weaken, which will allow Jimena to turn\r\nwest-northwestward through day 5.  The track guidance remains in\r\ngood agreement and very close to the previous forecast.  Therefore,\r\nno significant changes are noted in the updated NHC track forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 12.4N 122.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 12.4N 123.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 12.6N 125.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 13.2N 127.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 14.1N 129.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 15.9N 133.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 17.0N 138.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 17.5N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nA distinct eye cleared out in both visible and infrared satellite\r\nimagery around 1800 UTC, and convective cloud tops surrounding the\r\neye are as cold as -75 degrees Celsius.  Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nwere T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.5/77 kt from SAB at 1800 UTC, and\r\nthe most recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T5.4/100 kt.  The initial\r\nintensity is therefore raised to 90 kt on this advisory.  Jimena\r\ncontinues to rapidly intensify, with the intensity having increased\r\nby 35-40 kt in the past 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe environment near Jimena remains conducive for further\r\nstrengthening.  Low shear and very warm ocean water could allow\r\nrapid intensification to continue, and the SHIPS Rapid\r\nIntensification Index is showing a 43 percent chance of a 30-kt\r\nincrease in intensity during the next 24 hours.  Based on the\r\nlatest statistical-dynamical guidance, a peak in intensity is likely\r\nto occur between 36 and 48 hours.  After that time, a slightly\r\ndrier air mass and decreasing oceanic heat content should lead to a\r\ngradual weakening through day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\ncontinues to be a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM guidance, which have\r\nperformed better than the dynamical guidance with Jimena's\r\nstrengthening.  As was noted earlier today, once Jimena reaches its\r\npeak as a major hurricane, fluctuations in intensity that deviate\r\nfrom the official forecast are likely due to possible eyewall\r\nreplacements.\r\n\r\nJimena is still moving westward, or 270/10 kt.  The strong\r\ndeep-layer ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to\r\nweaken within 24 hours, which should allow Jimena to turn\r\nwest-northwestward by this time tomorrow.  This trajectory should\r\nthen continue through day 5.  The track guidance remains tightly\r\nclustered, although the GFS and the ECMWF shifted a bit\r\nnortheastward on this cycle and lie near the edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  Due to this shift, the new NHC track forecast lies\r\nslightly right of and a little slower than the previous forecast\r\nthrough 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 12.3N 123.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 12.4N 124.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 12.9N 126.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 13.7N 128.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 14.6N 130.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 16.2N 135.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 17.2N 138.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 17.7N 140.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015\r\n\r\nJimena is rapidly intensifying.  Conventional satellite imagery\r\nshows that the hurricane's well-defined eye has warmed and\r\ncontracted since the last advisory.  Its central dense overcast,\r\nconsisting of very cold cloud top temperatures, has also become\r\nincreasingly more symmetric.  Aside from Jimena's core features,\r\nouter bands surrounding the cyclone have also increased and become\r\nbetter defined.  Dvorak classifications were T5.5/102 kt from TAFB\r\nand SAB at 0000 UTC and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is 6.2/120 kt.\r\nA blend of these data are used to arrive at an intensity estimate of\r\n110 kt, making Jimena the fourth major hurricane of the season.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/10, although the cyclone appears\r\nto have recently experienced a southward trochoidal wobble. Directly\r\nunderneath a subtropical ridge to the north, Jimena should maintain\r\na general westward course for the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that\r\ntime, Jimena's heading should become west-northwestward as it nears\r\na break in this ridge around 140W, created by a mid-level trough\r\nextending southwestward from California.  A significant decrease in\r\nforward speed is likely after 96 hours when the cyclone reaches the\r\nweakness around 140W.  The track guidance is tightly clustered\r\nthrough 3 days and is only slightly divergent after that time, with\r\nthe multi-model consensus trending southward during the last 24\r\nhours from days 3 to 5.  The new track forecast has been nudged\r\nslightly southward in the short term and a little bit more in the\r\nextended range, following the trend in the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe rapid intensification phase that Jimena is undergoing is likely\r\nto continue in the short term while it encounters relatively light\r\nshear and moves over anomalously high oceanic heat content. These\r\nvery conducive large-scale factors for intensification suggest that\r\nJimena should reach a peak intensity of near category 5 strength in\r\nabout 24 hours or so.  The hurricane could remain around its peak\r\nintensity through 48 hours, even though SHIPS model output shows\r\nsome drying of the lower to middle troposphere along Jimena's\r\ntrack. However, it should be noted that intense hurricanes such as\r\nJimena frequently experience eyewall replacements that can cause\r\nfluctuations in intensity, and their occurrence and evolution are\r\nnearly impossible to predict. After about 2 days, a slow decay is\r\nforecast since oceanic and atmospheric conditions will only\r\ngradually become less conducive.  Jimena's continued strenghtening\r\nhas required an upward adjustment of the intensity forecast in the\r\nshort term, and the new forecast is in excellent agreement with the\r\nstatistical guidance as well as the FSU Superensemble output. The\r\nnew forecast then trends toward the multi-model consensus from days\r\n3 to 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 12.3N 124.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 12.5N 125.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 13.0N 127.4W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 13.9N 129.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 14.9N 131.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 16.3N 136.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 17.3N 139.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 18.0N 141.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015\r\n\r\nJimena is an impressive hurricane on satellite imagery tonight with\r\na symmetric central dense overcast, warm eye, and fanning cirrus\r\noutflow in all quadrants.  The current intensity estimate is 130 kt,\r\na blend of the latest Dvorak values from TAFB, SAB and UW-CIMSS.\r\nWhile large-scale environmental factors are still favorable for\r\nfurther strengthening this weekend, Jimena will likely go through an\r\neyewall replacement cycle during the next day or so, which can cause\r\nfluctuations in intensity that are impossible to forecast. However,\r\nJimena is likely to remain a very powerful hurricane for the next\r\nseveral days.  A slow decay is forecast by late Sunday since oceanic\r\nand atmospheric conditions will only gradually become less\r\nconducive, with a more pronounced weakening expected by mid-week.\r\nThe new forecast is primarily a blend of the previous one and the\r\nstatistical models in the first two days, with a heavier weight on\r\nthe intensity consensus at days 3 to 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/8.  Jimena's heading should\r\nbecome west-northwestward later today and continue in that general\r\ndirection for the next several days while it moves around the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  As Jimena nears a break in the ridge around\r\n140W, a significant decrease in forward speed is likely after 96\r\nhours.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new\r\ntrack forecast has been moved only slightly southward, similar to\r\nthe adjustment made on the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 12.3N 124.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 12.5N 126.2W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 13.3N 128.2W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 14.2N 130.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 15.0N 132.8W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 16.2N 137.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 140.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 17.7N 141.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015\r\n\r\nConvective cloud tops in the central dense overcast have warmed\r\nsince the last advisory, but the 10-15 n mi wide eye remains\r\ndistinct.  An 0913 UTC GCOM overpass clearly indicated that the\r\nformation of a secondary outer eyewall was almost complete, which\r\ncould be a harbinger that Jimena will soon go through an eyewall\r\nreplacement.  Dvorak Current Intensity estimates at 1200 UTC were\r\n6.0/115 kt from TAFB, 6.5/127 kt from SAB, and 6.8/135 kt from the\r\nCIMSS ADT, and the initial intensity is held at 130 kt.\r\n\r\nThis advisory continues to show the possibility of Jimena reaching\r\ncategory 5 intensity during the next 24 hours since the environment\r\nremains conducive for strengthening.  However, if Jimena does go\r\nthrough an eyewall replacement soon, then fluctuations in intensity\r\nare likely to occur, and the hurricane could actually weaken a bit\r\nin the short term.  The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging\r\nafter 24 hours.  Vertical shear is expected to remain low, and sea\r\nsurface temperatures remain above 26C through the forecast period,\r\nbut the hurricane models show a general decay to a category 1 or 2\r\ncyclone by day 5.  On the other hand, the global models,\r\nparticularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to take more advantage of the\r\nfavorable environment and retain central pressures that would\r\nsupport a category 3 or 4 hurricane through day 5.  Therefore, the\r\nNHC intensity forecast shows a much slower decay than indicated by\r\nthe hurricane models, keeping Jimena as a major hurricane through\r\nday 4.\r\n\r\nJimena's eye has been wobbling around, but the longer-term motion\r\nestimate is 275/7 kt.  The ridge to the north of the hurricane\r\nappears to be weakening, and Jimena is expected to turn\r\nwest-northwestward later today.  This trajectory should continue\r\nthrough day 5, with a decrease in forward speed by days 4 and 5\r\nwhen the steering currents become much weaker.  The track guidance\r\nis still in good agreement on the future track, and the updated NHC\r\nforecast is similar to, but slightly faster than, the previous\r\nforecast after 24 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 12.5N 125.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 13.0N 127.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 13.9N 129.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 14.7N 131.5W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 15.4N 133.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 16.5N 137.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 17.1N 140.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 17.6N 142.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015\r\n\r\nRecent microwave imagery continued to show Jimena's eyewall nearly\r\nenclosed by a larger outer ring of convection, signaling that\r\nconcentric eyewalls may be developing.  A moat region is also\r\nevident in the latest visible images.  Cloud tops have gradually\r\nwarmed since this morning, and Jimena appears to have weakened a\r\nlittle.  The initial intensity is set at 120 kt based on a blend of\r\nCI numbers of 6.0/115 from TAFB, 6.5/127 kt from SAB, and 6.3/122\r\nkt from the CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nJimena may be in the early stages of an eyewall replacement, which\r\nmakes the short-term intensity forecast a little tricky.  The\r\noverall environment remains conducive for strengthening, so if an\r\neyewall replacement occurs, the hurricane has an opportunity to\r\nre-intensify during the next day or so.  The bottom line is that\r\nfluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24-48 hours,\r\nand Jimena is expected to remain a major hurricane during that\r\ntime.  After 48 hours, gradual weakening is indicated in the\r\nforecast, with the most likely reason being lower oceanic heat\r\ncontent.  The hurricane models continue to show a much faster\r\nweakening rate than the global models, and as a compromise, the\r\nupdated NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper end of the\r\ntypically skillful models.  This solution is closest to the SHIPS\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nJimena has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n285/8 kt.  The subtropical ridge north of the hurricane is\r\nweakening, and Jimena is expected to continue moving toward the\r\nwest-northwest through day 5.  However, the cyclone should slow down\r\nconsiderably by days 4 and 5 due to weakening steering currents.\r\nThe track guidance has continued to trend faster, and the updated\r\nNHC track forecast is again a little bit ahead of the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 12.8N 126.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 13.4N 128.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 14.2N 130.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 15.0N 133.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 15.6N 135.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 16.6N 139.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 17.4N 141.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 18.0N 142.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 29 2015\r\n\r\nJimena continues to undergo an eyewall replacement, with significant\r\ninner-core structural changes seen in satellite data throughout\r\nthe day.  Microwave images show a small inner eyewall rotating\r\naround an irregularly-shaped outer eyewall at about 60 n mi radius,\r\nthe latter which could be slowly contracting.  Although Jimena's\r\ncloud pattern has fluctuated some during this period of inner-core\r\nchange, its overall organization has remained about the same\r\nsince the last advisory.  Satellite classifications seem to bear\r\nthis out, with intensity estimates of T6.0/115 kt and T6.5/127 kt\r\nfrom SAB and TAFB, respectively, at 0000 UTC.  These are blended\r\nwith the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of 6.1/117 kt to keep the initial\r\nintensity estimate at 120 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is challenging.  The large-scale environment\r\nis forecast to remain relatively favorable during the next day or\r\ntwo, apart from some north-northwesterly shear associated with a\r\ncold low to the northeast of Jimena.  This could allow an\r\nopportunity for reintensification if the current eyewall\r\nreplacement fully plays out, but predicting intensity fluctuations\r\ndue to inner-core dynamics is nearly impossible and beyond the\r\nscope of this forecast. Thus, a slow decrease in intensity is\r\nindicated in the new forecast as large-scale conditions only\r\ngradually become less conducive.  This is a blend of the\r\nstatistical-dynamical guidance. As Jimena gradually gains latitude\r\nlater in the forecast period, global models show a minor increase in\r\nwesterly shear while other thermodynamic factor remain generally\r\nneutral, except for slowly decreasing SSTs.  These factors suggests\r\na slow decay of the cyclone, and the new intensity forecast is in\r\nagreement with the latest multi-model consensus that shows a\r\nmonotonic decrease in intensity from days 3 to 5.\r\n\r\nThe eye of Jimena has been wobbling quite a bit, but smoothing\r\nthrough these yields a faster initial motion estimate of 295/11.\r\nJimena should continue moving west-northwestward during the next few\r\ndays as it approaches the western end of a subtropical ridge around\r\n140W.  A weakness in the ridge around this longitude should induce a\r\nsignificant deceleration by days 4 and 5.  The track guidance is in\r\nexcellent agreement through the first 2 days, with less-than-typical\r\nspread beyond that time.  The new track forecast is faster and\r\nadjusted slightly southward and then westward after day 3, but not\r\nas far south or west as the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 13.3N 127.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 13.9N 129.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 14.7N 131.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 16.0N 136.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 16.9N 139.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 17.6N 141.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 18.1N 143.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall cloud pattern has degraded a little during the past few\r\nhours with some cooling of the eye of Jimena.  Microwave data\r\nconfirm the ongoing eyewall replacement, with some evidence that the\r\ninner eyewall is eroding at the expense of an outer eyewall.\r\nSatellite estimates have come down somewhat, so the initial\r\nintensity is reduced to 115 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast for the next day or so is primarily dependent\r\non when and if the eyewall cycle completes. After considering the\r\nlow-shear, warm-water environment, I will assume that Jimena will be\r\nable to complete the eyewall cycle and not lose much more intensity\r\nthis weekend. After that time, overall environmental conditions only\r\ngradually become less conducive. These factors suggest a slow decay\r\nof the cyclone then, although there is considerable uncertainty\r\nsince the intensity guidance is rather divergent by long range.\r\nThere has not been any significant change to the intensity\r\nconsensus and, given the uncertainties, the new forecast is kept\r\nnearly the same as the old one.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/11.  So far Jimena has been a\r\nwell-behaved cyclone as the subtropical ridge has provided a steady\r\nsteering current.  This ridge is forecast to remain firm for the\r\nnext few days, keeping the west-northwestward motion in place.\r\nAround the time Jimena reaches the central Pacific, it should slow\r\ndown considerably due to a weakening of the subtropical ridge, which\r\ncould allow a turn to the northwest by the end of the period.\r\nHowever, the bulk of guidance keep the hurricane moving slowly\r\nwest-northwestward through day 5, with some outliers.  No\r\nsignificant changes were made to the latest NHC prediction since the\r\nmodel consensus is very close to the previous official forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 13.7N 128.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 14.3N 130.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 15.1N 132.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 15.8N 135.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 16.3N 137.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 17.2N 140.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 17.9N 142.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 18.5N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nInfrared satellite images and a recent GCOM microwave pass indicate\r\nthat there is still some evidence of a double eyewall structure.\r\nThe southern portion of Jimena's inner eyewall has eroded a little\r\nduring the past few hours, causing a slightly asymmetric\r\npresentation.  The initial wind speed is maintained at 115 kt, based\r\non a blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and\r\nADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, though it is\r\npossible that Jimena could be a little less intense.\r\n\r\nThe atmospheric environment is expected to remain conducive for\r\nJimena to remain a strong cyclone for the next several days as\r\nthe SHIPS model shows the wind shear remaining less than 10 kt.  The\r\nonly negative environmental factor is cooler water with lower\r\noceanic heat content along the expected track.  Most of the guidance\r\nshows a slow decay of the hurricane during the next several days,\r\nand the NHC intensity forecast follows that theme.  This forecast\r\nis in best agreement with the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nJimena is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by a\r\nsubtropical ridge to its north and northeast.  This general motion\r\nis expected to persist for another day or two.  After that time,\r\nthe hurricane is expected to decelerate in response to weakening\r\nsteering currents caused by an amplifying trough extending\r\nsouthwestward from the western United States.  The new track\r\nforecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one to\r\ncome in better agreement with the latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 14.2N 129.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 14.9N 131.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 15.6N 134.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 16.2N 136.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 16.8N 138.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 17.7N 140.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 18.5N 142.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 19.2N 143.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nAfter Jimena's cloud pattern appeared somewhat ragged this\r\nmorning, it has recently become more symmetric and better organized.\r\nThe latest infrared images indicate that a ring of cloud tops colder\r\nthan -70 deg C surround the center, and the eye has increased in\r\ndiameter and become more distinct.  The larger eye suggests that\r\neyewall replacement could now be complete, and this is likely the\r\nreason why the hurricane has begun to re-intensify.  Dvorak\r\nclassifications at 1800 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from SAB and 6.5/127 kt\r\nfrom TAFB, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value between these two\r\nestimates. Based on the latest appearance of Jimena, the initial\r\nwind speed is set near the high end of the estimates at 125 kt.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned in previous discussions, Jimena is expected to remain\r\nin a low wind shear environment for the next several days.  However,\r\nthe cyclone is expected to track over progressively cooler water,\r\nwhich should cause the hurricane to slowly weaken.  The official\r\nintensity forecast shows some short-term strengthening, following\r\nthe current trend, and then predicts a slow decay.  This forecast is\r\nhigher than all of the guidance during the next day or so, but falls\r\nin line with the SHIPS model from 36-120 h.\r\n\r\nJimena is moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, 295/13\r\nkt.  This motion is expected to continue for about 24 hours while a\r\nsubtropical ridge remains to the north and northeast of the\r\ncyclone.  After that time, Jimena is forecast to decelerate as\r\nsteering currents weaken in response to an amplifying trough\r\nextending southwestward from the western United States.  There was\r\nlittle change in the latest model guidance, and the NHC forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one.  This forecast lies close to\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 14.7N 130.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 15.2N 133.0W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 16.0N 135.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 16.6N 137.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 17.1N 138.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 18.0N 141.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 18.8N 142.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 19.8N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 30 2015\r\n\r\nJimena's cloud pattern has been in a remarkably steady state since\r\nthe last advisory.  The hurricane continues to maintain a large\r\ncircular eye that has warmed slightly, surrounded by a nearly\r\nuniform ring of deep convection.  There is a faint asymmetry in the\r\nconvective distribution, suggestive of northerly or north-\r\nnorthwesterly shear as diagnosed by the SHIPS model output.\r\nSatellite classifications were T6.5/127 kt from TAFB and SAB, and\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT values have held steady at 6.7/132 kt.  A blend of\r\nthese data is used to set the initial intensity at 130 kt.\r\n\r\nEven though large-scale atmospheric conditions are forecast to\r\nremain relatively favorable around Jimena during the couple of days,\r\nthe intensity guidance indicates that Jimena should begin to weaken\r\nsoon. The weakening appears to largely be a function of slowly\r\ndecreasing SSTs along the cyclone's path.  Some westerly shear and a\r\nlarger drop-off in oceanic heat content later in the forecast period\r\nsuggest continued gradual weakening should occur, but neither the\r\natmosphere nor ocean should produce conditions hostile enough to\r\nresult in the cyclone's rapid decline.  The one caveat to the\r\nintensity forecast is that Jimena, already exhibiting some\r\ncharacteristics of an annular hurricane, could weaken more slowly\r\nthan forecast.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is somewhat above\r\nthe multi-model consensus and is in best agreement with the HWRF\r\nmodel that shows slower overall weakening.\r\n\r\nJimena's heading has been a bit more westerly since the previous\r\nadvisory, but a longer-term average motion estimate is 290/14. A\r\nlongwave trough, extending southwestward from the U.S. west coast,\r\nhas eroded the subtropical ridge ridge between 140-150W.  As Jimena\r\nnears this weakness during the next few days, its forward speed\r\nshould gradually decrease on a slightly more poleward heading.  In\r\nthe absence of much steering from days 3 to 5, Jimena should drift\r\nnorthwestward.  The latest NHC track forecast has hardly changed\r\nfrom the previous one.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 15.0N 132.5W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 15.4N 134.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 16.2N 136.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 16.8N 138.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 17.3N 140.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 18.3N 141.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 19.1N 143.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 20.2N 143.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nJimena has maintained a symmetric very cold CDO with a well-defined\r\n25 n mi diameter eye.  A 0307Z SSMIS pass indicated that a\r\nconcentric eyewall structure was in place with a secondary eyewall\r\nlocated about 30-40 n mi from the center.  A blend of subjective\r\nTAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications along with UW-CIMSS Advanced\r\nDvorak Technique are the basis for Jimena's 130-kt intensity.\r\n\r\nCurrently, Jimena is over warm 28 deg C water and is embedded in\r\nweak northerly vertical shear conditions.  While these should favor\r\ncontinuing an extreme intensity, the mid-level moisture is somewhat\r\ndry and the atmosphere not very unstable for deep convection. During\r\nthe next few days, the SSTs should gradually cool while the vertical\r\nshear should gradually increase as Jimena moves west-northwestward.\r\nComplicating the forecast is the possibility that Jimena may undergo\r\nanother concentric eyewall cycle, with short-term weakening followed\r\nby possible reintensification. However, such variations are\r\ndifficult to precisely predict. The intensity forecast is nearly the\r\nsame as from the previous advisory and is closest to the statistical\r\nSHIPS model from 12 to 36 hours, and is close to the IVCN consensus\r\ntechnique thereafter.\r\n\r\nJimena is moving quickly toward the west-northwest at 15 kt,\r\nprimarily through the steering induced by a deep-layer ridge to its\r\nnorth.  The ridge should weaken and become oriented\r\nnorthwest-to-southeast during the next couple of days.  This should\r\nresult in Jimena turning toward the northwest at a slower rate of\r\nspeed. The forecast track is nearly identical to the previous\r\nadvisory and is based upon the very tightly packed consensus of the\r\nskillful dynamical models.\r\n\r\nJimena's wind radii were significantly adjusted outward based upon\r\nan 0216Z CIRA AMSU pass and an 0536Z partial ASCAT pass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 15.3N 133.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 15.7N 135.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 16.3N 137.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 17.5N 140.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 18.5N 142.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 19.5N 143.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 20.5N 144.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nJimena continues to be a powerful hurricane.  Recent microwave data\r\nand infrared satellite images suggest that the system still has\r\nconcentric eyewalls.  The eye of the hurricane remains distinct and\r\nhas a diameter of about 20 n mi, and the convective pattern is\r\nslightly asymmetric with cloud tops slightly warmer west of the eye.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates were all 6.5 on the Dvorak scale,\r\ntherefore, the initial wind speed remains 130 kt.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is now moving westward at about 14 kt steered by a\r\nmid-level high pressure system to the north of the cyclone.  This\r\nridge is expected to break down during the next couple of days\r\nwhile a trough deepens near the west coast of the United States.\r\nThis pattern evolution should weaken the steering currents for\r\nJimena, causing a gradual slow down and a turn to the northwest\r\nduring the next several days.  The track model guidance is in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, and only minor tweaks were made to the\r\nprevious track forecast.  The new NHC track prediction lies close\r\nto the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nJimena is expected to more or less maintain its intensity during\r\nthe next day or so while it remains over 28 deg C water and in a\r\nvery low wind shear environment.  Fluctuations in strength are\r\npossible during that time due to the ongoing eyewall cycles.  After\r\nthat time, a slow weakening is expected while water temperatures\r\nlower along the forecast track.  The NHC intensity forecast lies on\r\nthe high side of the guidance and is a little above the previous\r\nintensity forecast, giving some weight to the global models which\r\nmaintain a very strong cyclone for the next several days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 15.6N 135.3W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 16.0N 137.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 16.6N 138.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 17.3N 140.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 17.8N 141.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 18.9N 142.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 19.9N 143.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 20.9N 143.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nJimena continues to exhibit a concentric eyewall structure around a\r\n20 n mi diameter eye.  The cloud tops have warmed a little during\r\nthe past few hours, and the overall satellite presentation is not\r\nquite as impressive as it was several hours ago.  The Dvorak Final\r\nT-numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased slightly, and the initial\r\nwind speed is lowered a little to 125 kt.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is still moving westward at about 14 kt, which is a\r\nlittle faster than previously predicted.  A mid-level high pressure\r\nsystem located to the north of the tropical cyclone should continue\r\nto steer Jimena west-northwestward in the short term, but this ridge\r\nis expected to weaken during the next day or two in response to an\r\namplification of a mid- to upper- level trough extending\r\nsouthwestward from the western United States. This pattern change\r\nshould cause the steering currents around Jimena to weaken,\r\nresulting in a gradual northwestward turn with a dramatic decrease\r\nin forward speed after 48 hours. The track model guidance has\r\nshifted a little to the left and is slightly faster than earlier,\r\nand the new NHC track forecast follows that theme.\r\n\r\nJimena is likely to fluctuate in intensity during the next 12 to 24\r\nhours while it remains embedded in a very low wind shear environment\r\nand over 28 deg C waters.  After that time, a slow weakening is\r\nexpected while SSTs decrease along the forecast track.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is just an update of the previous one and remains\r\non the high side of the intensity guidance, giving some weight to\r\nthe global models which maintain a very strong cyclone for the next\r\nseveral days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 15.9N 136.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 16.4N 138.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 17.1N 140.1W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 17.6N 141.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 18.2N 142.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 19.2N 143.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 20.2N 144.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 21.6N 144.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":22,"Date":"2015-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nJimena is experiencing another eyewall replacement.  Satellite data\r\nshow a double eyewall structure within the hurricane's inner core,\r\nwith the eye having become cloud-filled and less defined throughout\r\nthe day. There has also been a dramatic warming of cloud top\r\ntemperatures during the past 12 hours or so.  Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates have decreased substantially since the last advisory, and\r\na blend of latest Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB is used\r\nto lower the intensity to 115 kt.\r\n\r\nAlthough the vertical wind shear should be extremely low and Jimena\r\nshould still be moving over SSTs greater than 28 deg C during the\r\nnext 48 hours, the intensity guidance shows slow weakening.  Neutral\r\nthermodynamic conditions and a notable drop-off in oceanic heat\r\ncontent along the cyclone's track likely contributes to a decrease\r\nin intensity, at least in the statistical guidance.  Regardless,\r\ninternal dynamics in the hurricane's inner core are likely to\r\nbe key to the short-term intensity forecast, and given Jimena's\r\ncurrent structure of multiple wind maxima at large radii, it is\r\nreasonable to expect a slow decay during the next few days. Only at\r\ndays 4 and 5 does westerly shear increase and the waters become\r\nmarginally warm.  That being said, the large-scale factors do not\r\nsupport anything more than a slow filling.  The one caveat is that\r\nthe cyclone's slow movement could induce oceanic upwelling and\r\nresult in faster weakening.  The new intensity forecast is lowered\r\nsome from the previous one and is a bit lower than the multi-model\r\nconsensus after 24 hours, in best agreement with the FSU\r\nSuperensemble output.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/14.  The tail of a mid-latitude\r\ntrough, extending south-southwestward from the Pacific Northwest, is\r\nforecast to temporarily weaken the subtropical ridge between 140-\r\n155W during the next day or two.  As a result, Jimena's forward\r\nspeed should decrease very soon, and the cyclone should continue to\r\ngradually decelerate over the next couple of days. A northwestward\r\nto north-northwestward drift in response to the weakness in the\r\nridge is shown by the global models from days 3 to 5.  The new track\r\nforecast is close to the multi-model consensus, albeit not as far\r\neast as the consensus in the latter part of the forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 16.3N 138.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 16.6N 139.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 17.2N 140.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 19.2N 143.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 20.5N 144.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 22.0N 144.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":23,"Date":"2015-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nJimena has changed little since the previous advisory.  Microwave\r\ndata indicate that the hurricane has concentric eyewalls, and the\r\neye temperature has actually warmed a bit during the past few\r\nhours.  Since the overall satellite presentation has changed\r\nlittle, and Dvorak estimates are T6.0 from TAFB and SAB, the\r\ninitial intensity is held at 115 kt.\r\n\r\nJimena has an expansive outflow shield radiating outward 400 to 600\r\nn mi in all directions from the center, and the UW-CIMSS shear\r\nanalysis is currently showing less than 5 kt of shear affecting the\r\nhurricane.  The SHIPS guidance shows the shear staying 5 kt or less\r\nfor the next 48 hours, and less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours.\r\nSea surface temperatures gradually decrease ahead of Jimena, but\r\nthey are at least 26C for the entire forecast period.  Therefore,\r\nthere don't seem to be any egregiously hostile conditions during\r\nthe next few days to induce a quick weakening trend.  As has been\r\nthe case for days, the hurricane models show a gradual weakening\r\ntrend through the five-day period, while the GFS and ECMWF continue\r\nto maintain a much stronger hurricane.  As a compromise between\r\nthese scenarios, the NHC intensity forecast lies near the top end\r\nof the intensity guidance, or close to the SHIPS model.  This\r\nforecast is a little higher than the previous official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 280/11 kt.  Jimena is expected to turn\r\nwest-northwestward toward a break in the subtropical ridge within\r\nthe next 12 hours, and then northwestward and north-northwestward by\r\ndays 3 through 5.  This forecast reasoning is unchanged from prior\r\nadvisories, but the track guidance envelope did shift a little west\r\nafter 48 hours on this cycle.  The updated NHC track is therefore\r\nnudged westward as well and is close to the TVCN model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 16.4N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 16.9N 140.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 17.4N 141.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 17.9N 142.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 18.3N 143.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 19.4N 144.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 20.7N 145.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 22.5N 146.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Jimena","Adv":24,"Date":"2015-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132015\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nEnhanced BD-Curve infrared images and an earlier microwave\r\noverpass from the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite\r\ncontinue to show the presence of a double eyewall structure with\r\nevidence of erosion of Jimena's inner eyewall in the southern\r\nportion.  Since the overall presentation reveals decay of the\r\neyewall, the initial intensity is lowered to 105 kt and is based on\r\na blend of the TAFB and SAB Current and Final-T numbers. Although\r\nthe sea surface temperatures are expected to remain relatively warm\r\nahead of the cyclone through at least day 4, and westerly shear does\r\nnot appear to affect Jimena until near the end of the period, a\r\nmarginal thermodynamic atmosphere is most likely the cause of the\r\nweakening trend that has commenced.  The intensity forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the previous one and is weighed heavily on\r\nthe SHIPS model and the HWRF.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward or, 290/9 kt.  Jimena has\r\nmade its expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now moving\r\ntoward a growing weakness in the subtropical ridge.  A subsequent\r\nturn toward the northwestward and north-northwestward is forecast by\r\nthe 48 hour period and through the end of the period.  The NHC\r\nforecast is nudged slightly to the right of the previous package and\r\nsides with the TVCX multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nJimena has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is\r\nthe last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.\r\nSubsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 16.9N 140.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 17.3N 141.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 17.8N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 18.3N 142.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 18.8N 143.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 19.9N 144.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 21.5N 144.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  06/1200Z 23.4N 146.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":53,"Date":"2015-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015\r\nISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n1100 AM HST TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nJIMENA IS A SHEARED CYCLONE AND CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION OF\r\nLOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER. GIVEN THE LACK OF DEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO\r\nDECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SEPARATE THE LOW-LEVEL FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER AS\r\nQUICKLY AS 48 HOURS, AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT STRONG SHEAR\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. ON THIS BASIS...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR JIMENA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 48\r\nHOURS OR SO. THE LOW COULD REMAIN LINGERING FOR A FEW MORE DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE WEST OR 270\r\nDEGREES AT 6 KT. SINCE JIMENA IS BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT\r\nWILL LIKELY BE STEERED SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR EVEN\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS FOR THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY TURN MORE\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A NEW TROUGH\r\nAPPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nMULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 26.5N 153.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 26.3N 154.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 25.9N 156.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 25.6N 158.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 25.4N 159.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 25.5N 161.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 26.4N 163.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1800Z 31.2N 166.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Jimena","Adv":54,"Date":"2015-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP132015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC HFOTCDCP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JIMENA DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP132015\r\nISSUED BY NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL\r\n500 PM HST TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nTHERE HAVE NOT BEEN MANY CHANGES WITH JIMENA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS WITH THE CENTER MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF A BLOB OF\r\nCONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS NOT VERY\r\nIMPRESSIVE...AN EARLIER ASCAT-B PASS SURPRISINGLY SHOWED MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS OF ABOUT 50 KT.  ASSUMING SOME SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX SINCE\r\nTHEN LEADS TO AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SHEAR INCREASING TO RATHER HIGH VALUES OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...LIKELY CAUSING A DECREASE IN STRENGTH.  THE ONE\r\nCAVEAT IS THAT JIMENA IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS\r\nAND INTO A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALOFT AS WELL...WHICH COULD TEMPER\r\nTHE WEAKENING RATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWING SLOW\r\nWEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE VALUES ARE HIGHER BECAUSE OF THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO\r\nTHE PERSISTENT STRONG SHEAR.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nAND IS MOVING ABOUT 7 KT.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS LIKELY FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST WHILE THE STORM\r\nMOVES AROUND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  JIMENA...OR ITS REMNANTS...\r\nSHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND\r\nACCELERATE IN A FEW DAYS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE TROUGH\r\nSHOULD THEN ABSORB THE LOW BY DAY 5.  OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT ON THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH BASED ON THE LATEST CONSENSUS\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 26.0N 153.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 25.7N 155.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 25.3N 156.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 25.1N 158.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 25.1N 159.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 25.5N 161.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 28.0N 163.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n300 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nAnimation of recent visible satellite imagery indicates that the\r\nlow pressure area well to the south of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has a\r\nwell-defined circulation.  Recently, deep convection has formed\r\nnear and partially over the center.  On this basis, the system is\r\nbeing designated as a tropical depression.  The current intensity\r\nestimate is 30 kt, which is slightly above the subjective Dvorak\r\nestimates at 1800 UTC.  The tropical cyclone is not in an ideal\r\nenvironment for strengthening.  A broad upper-level cyclone to the\r\nnorthwest is producing southwesterly shear in the path of the\r\ndepression, and global models predict that this shear may briefly\r\nrelax in 1 to 2 days, but increase thereafter.  Although the\r\nofficial intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance,\r\nit nonetheless shows weakening to a remnant low by the end of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/9 kt.  A mid-level ridge\r\ncurrently to the north of the depression is forecast to shift\r\neastward over the next few days.  As a result, the tropical\r\ncyclone should turn toward the north in 48 to 72 hours.  There is\r\nsome spread in the model guidance, including significant\r\ndifferences in predicted forward speed.  As a compromise, the\r\nofficial track forecast is roughly in the middle of the guidance,\r\nand close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 12.4N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 13.5N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 16.3N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 18.3N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 21.2N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 23.3N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 24.6N 114.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n900 PM MDT MON AUG 31 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been little overall change in the cloud pattern of the\r\ndepression this evening.  The system is producing some very deep\r\nconvection over the southern portion of the circulation, with only\r\nslight evidence of banding features.  Upper-level outflow is rather\r\nlimited at this time, and mainly over the southern semicircle of\r\nthe circulation.  The current intensity estimate is kept at 30 kt,\r\nwhich is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  The\r\nenvironment is expected to be only marginally conducive for\r\nintensification over the next day or two.  A large upper-level\r\ntrough to the northwest of the tropical cyclone should produce\r\n15 to 20 kt of vertical shear on the cyclone for the couple of\r\ndays.  This could allow for some slow strengthening during the next\r\n36 to 48 hours, as shown in the official intensity forecast.  Late\r\nin the period, however, the shear is forecast to become\r\nprohibitively strong and the system is likely to degenerate into\r\nremnant low in 5 days or less.\r\n\r\nThe center is not easy to locate but based on the last-light\r\nvisible images, the motion is estimated to be 290/8.  A mid-\r\ntropospheric ridge currently to the north of the depression is\r\nforecast to shift gradually eastward while a trough becomes\r\nestablished to the west of California and the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  This evolution of the steering pattern is\r\nlikely to result in the cyclone turning northward and then north-\r\nnortheastward.  By the end of the forecast period, however, the\r\ncyclone will likely have become quite shallow and consequently move\r\nvery slowly within the weak low-level environmental flow.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is based largely on a dynamical model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 12.4N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.2N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 14.6N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 16.3N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 18.1N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 20.8N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 22.7N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 23.4N 114.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n300 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nA couple of ASCAT passes between 0400 and 0530 UTC showed that the\r\ncyclone was not quite yet producing tropical-storm-force winds--but\r\nit was close.  A burst of convection has recently developed near\r\nthe low-level center, but the overall convective pattern is\r\nsomewhat elongated.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based\r\non the scatterometer data.  The depression still appears to be\r\nexperiencing some vertical shear, but this shear should stay below\r\n15 kt for the next 36 hours or so.  Therefore, some gradual\r\nstrengthening is expected during that time.  Vertical shear\r\nincreases significantly after 48 hours due to the flow ahead of a\r\nlarge upper-level trough west of the California coast, and the\r\ncyclone should therefore weaken back to a depression by day 3 and\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low by day 4.  The updated NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to the intensity consensus and largely unchanged\r\nfrom the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe ASCAT data made the low-level center a little easier to locate,\r\nand the initial motion estimate is 295/7 kt.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to turn toward the northwest and north during the next\r\ncouple of days as it moves between a mid-level anticyclone over\r\nMexico and a deep-layer trough west of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  However, once it becomes a remnant low, the system is\r\nlikely to become trapped in weak low-level flow, meandering or\r\nbecoming nearly stationary southwest of the Baja California\r\npeninsula by day 5.  The NHC track forecast is closest to a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 12.6N 113.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 13.5N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 15.2N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 16.9N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 18.4N 115.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 20.9N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0600Z 22.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n900 AM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern continues to be elongated and the convection is\r\nnot very well organized at this time. Since the Dvorak T-numbers\r\nhave not changed, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.  The\r\ndepression has the opportunity to strengthen a little bit during\r\nthe next day or two, before stronger southerly upper-level winds\r\nahead of a trough impact the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the consensus and similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees at 7\r\nkt.  The depression is forecast to be steered toward the\r\nnorth-northwest and northward by the flow around a sharp trough\r\nlocated to the west of the cyclone, and eventually recurves toward\r\nthe north-northeast by day 3. After that time, the cyclone is\r\nexpected to be weaker and become steered by the low-level flow.\r\nLittle motion is then anticipated. This is the solution provided by\r\nmost of the dynamical guidance. The NHC forecast follows very\r\nclosely the consensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 13.0N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 14.0N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 16.0N 114.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 17.5N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 19.0N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 21.5N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 22.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n300 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows that the system has not become\r\nbetter organized and a recent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicates\r\nthat the cyclone remains at depression strength.  Therefore, the\r\ninitial intensity remains at 30 kt.  The environment is expected to\r\nbe only marginally conducive for some intensification during the\r\nnext couple of days.  An amplifying mid- to upper-level trough\r\nsituated to the northwest of the depression is forecast to produce\r\nmodest southwesterly shear during the next couple of days.  Beyond\r\nthe 48 hour period, the depression will be moving into a\r\nsignificantly more stable and drier air mass which should induce a\r\nmore rapid decay of the cyclone.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the IVCN intensity consensus and the Florida State\r\nSuperensemble and is essentially an update from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is northwestward or, 320/8 kt. The cyclone is\r\nexpected to gradually move between a mid-level high pressure system\r\nover Mexico and the aforementioned deep-layer trough west of the\r\nBaja California peninsula during the next 2-3 days.  Beyond the 72\r\nhour period, the depression is expected to degenerate into a\r\nshallow, weak, system and is likely to meander in very weak\r\nlow-level steering currents southwest of the Baja California\r\npeninsula until dissipation.  The NHC forecast is a little bit\r\nfaster than the previous advisory and follows the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF)\r\nconsensus closely.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 13.7N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 15.1N 114.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 16.8N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 18.5N 115.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 20.1N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 22.4N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 23.4N 113.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 24.0N 113.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n900 PM MDT TUE SEP 01 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression is no better organized than it was earlier today.\r\nSatellite imagery shows the cyclone with a couple of loosely\r\norganized bands without much curvature over the eastern half of\r\ncirculation.  This assymetric and disorganized cloud pattern is\r\nindicative of southwesterly shear induced by a mid- to upper-level\r\ntropospheric trough to the northwest of the depression. The initial\r\nintensity estimate is 30 kt, based on a blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates.\r\n\r\nA relative reduction in vertical shear is forecast in 24 to 36\r\nhours, when the trough to the west of the depression shears out. All\r\nother factors being equal at that time, this should present the\r\ncyclone with a limited opportunity for intensification. After 48\r\nhours, the cyclone should meet a harsh environment of very dry air\r\nand southwesterly shear associated with an unusually deep trough\r\ndigging along the U.S. west coast.  The global models indicate that\r\nthe shear should be strong enough that the low- to mid-level\r\ncirculations separate in about 72 hours, with dissipation by day 5.\r\nThe intensity guidance has decreased across the board, and the new\r\nintensity forecast shows less intensification but still with a peak\r\nin 24 to 36 hours.  This new forecast, however, is higher than the\r\nstatistical-dynamical guidance.\r\n\r\nThe depression's center is difficult to locate, but a blend of the\r\nlatest fixes and a continuity provide an initial motion estimate of\r\n325/08.  A south-southeasterly to southerly steering flow between a\r\nsubtropical ridge over Mexico and the trough to the west should\r\ncause the depression to gradually turn northward in 24 to 36 hours.\r\nOnce the cyclone crosses 20N, strong southwesterly flow ahead of\r\nthe amplifying western U.S. trough should cause recurvature.\r\nHowever, the decoupling of the system will leave the low-level\r\ncenter behind, moving slowly northeastward. By day 4, the remnant\r\nlow should drift erratically and then turn southward in the\r\nlow-level flow until dissipation.  The new track forecast is a\r\nlittle slower than the previous one based on a blend of the GFS and\r\nECWMF model solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 14.3N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 15.7N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 17.3N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 18.8N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 20.1N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N 114.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 22.8N 114.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased somewhat during the past few hours,\r\nbut it is oriented linearly north to south, displaced to the east\r\nof the low-level center.  Unfortunately ASCAT missed the\r\ncirculation tonight, and Dvorak final-T numbers from SAB and TAFB\r\nwere steady or decreased from six hours ago.  Therefore, the\r\ncyclone is being maintained as a 30-kt depression.\r\n\r\nThe depression is located just to the east of a sharp upper-level\r\ntrough, which is producing about 15 kt of southwesterly shear over\r\nthe cyclone.  The trough is expected to weaken soon, which should\r\nallow the shear to decrease slightly during the next 36 hours.\r\nHowever, dry mid-level air is located just to the west of the\r\ndepression, and the shear will likely not relax enough to prevent\r\nan asymmetric convective pattern.  The new NHC intensity forecast\r\ncontinues to show the possibility of the depression reaching\r\ntropical storm strength during the next 36 hours, but the peak\r\nintensity is a little bit lower than in the previous advisory.  An\r\nincrease in shear after 36 hours should cause deep convection to\r\nbecome significantly displaced from the center, leading to the\r\ndepression degenerating to a remnant low by day 3.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center has still been tough to pinpoint, the\r\ndepression appears to have turned north-northwestward with an\r\ninitial motion of 335/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge over Mexico and a\r\ndeep-layer trough west of the Baja California peninsula should\r\nsteer the depression generally northward through day 3.  Once it\r\nbecomes a shallow remnant low, it will likely meander or drift\r\nwestward in the low-level flow.  There are considerable speed\r\ndifferences between the track models, presumably a result of how\r\nsoon each depicts the cyclone becoming sheared.  The updated NHC\r\ntrack forecast is again a little slower than the previous one and\r\nis close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 15.2N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 16.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 17.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 18.9N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 20.0N 115.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 21.6N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 22.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nEnhanced IR and shortwave imagery continues to depict a relatively\r\nshapeless, asymmetric, convective mass sheared to the northeast of\r\nthe surface circulation.  Although deep convection has increased\r\nsomewhat since yesterday, objective and subjective satellite\r\nintensity estimates still yield an initial intensity of 30 kt.  The\r\nglobal models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance are\r\nindicating a small window of opportunity during the next 24-36 hours\r\nfor some strengthening.  Through the remaining portion of the\r\nperiod, weakening to a remnant low by day 3 is expected as the\r\ncyclone enters a region of high static stability and begins to\r\ntraverse cooler sea surface temperatures.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is based on a blend of the IVCN and FSSE\r\nforecasts and is quite similar to the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nA fortuitous 0849 UTC AMSR2 microwave overpass helped immensely in\r\nlocating the surface center and estimating the current motion of\r\nthe depression which now appears to be northward or, 350/8 kt.  The\r\ncyclone should continue moving in this general direction during the\r\nnext 36 hours or so.  After that time, a turn toward the\r\nnorth-northeast is forecast through day 3.  By that point in time,\r\nthe tropical cyclone should degenerate into a shallow swirl of\r\nlow-level clouds and basically drift within the weak steering flow\r\ncreated by an existing deep-layer trough west of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  The NHC forecast continues to follow closely to the\r\nmulti-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF blend) model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 16.2N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 17.2N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 20.6N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 22.1N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 23.1N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n300 PM MDT WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery shows that the system remains a sheared\r\ndepression with the center of circulation partially exposed to\r\nthe south of the cloud mass containing the coldest cloud tops.\r\nConvective banding is also a bit fragmented and thin to the east of\r\nthe cyclone's surface center.  Subsequently, the initial intensity\r\nremains at 30 kt and is based on a blend of Dvorak CI numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  Guidance still indicates that the depression could\r\nbecome a tropical storm within the next 12-24 hours.  Afterward, the\r\ncyclone is forecast to spin down to a remnant low by day 3 as it\r\nmoves over cooler waters and into a drier and more stable\r\nenvironment.  The NHC intensity forecast is again a compromise of\r\nthe IVCN and FSSE forecasts.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 360/7 kt.  The depression is\r\nforecast to move between a mid-tropospheric high pressure system\r\nover northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of the\r\nBaja California peninsula during the next 3 days.  As the tropical\r\ncyclone degenerates into a remnant low, and the steering flow\r\ncollapses, the shallow swirl of low clouds should either drift in a\r\ngenerally north-northwestward direction or meander until\r\ndissipation.  The NHC forecast is close to the previous advisory and\r\nis hedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFEX (GFS/ECMWF\r\nblend) model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 16.8N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 19.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 20.4N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 21.4N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 22.9N 114.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 23.5N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 02 2015\r\n\r\nBursts of convection continue to form near and north of the center\r\nof the depression.  Southerly shear, however, continues to prevent\r\nmuch organization, with the thunderstorms fading in the past hour.\r\nThe satellite classifications are the same as 6 hours ago, so the\r\ninitial intensity remains 30 kt.  I suspect this is on the\r\nconservative side given the curvature of the low clouds and the\r\nlatest microwave images, but would prefer to wait until there is\r\nmore concrete data to support an upgrade.  The cyclone has about a\r\nday to intensify before SSTs become more marginal and drier air\r\ninfiltrates the circulation.  Remnant low status is anticipated\r\nby day 3 due to more hostile environmental conditions.  The NHC\r\nwind speed forecast is similar to the previous advisory, just a bit\r\nhigher than the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 360/6 kt.  The global models\r\nare in good agreement on the depression moving between a mid-level\r\nhigh over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough west of\r\nthe Baja California peninsula during the next few days.  The\r\nbiggest forecast challenge is predicting exactly when the cyclone\r\nbecomes a more shallow system and takes a leftward turn in response\r\nto the low-level flow.  In general, the model guidance has trended a\r\nbit faster with the westward turn, and the latest NHC forecast is\r\nshifted in that direction, though still lies north of the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 17.0N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 18.0N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 19.2N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 20.3N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 22.3N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 22.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nRecent ASCAT data indicate that the cyclone is producing a sizable\r\narea of 35-kt winds, especially beneath a burst of deep convection\r\nwhich has persisted during the past few hours.  The scatterometer\r\ndata also indicated that the low-level center is now embedded\r\nbeneath the southeastern edge of the convective canopy, and Dvorak\r\nestimates are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on\r\nthese data, the cyclone is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Kevin.\r\nAlthough some southerly shear is expected to continue affecting\r\nKevin during the next several days, warm sea surface temperatures\r\nand a moist environment could support just a little more\r\nstrengthening during the next 24 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nhas been adjusted slightly upward during that period and shows a\r\npeak intensity close to the ICON intensity consensus and the Florida\r\nState Superensemble.  After 36 hours, the shear is likely to allow\r\ndrier air to get into the circulation, leading to weakening.  Kevin\r\nis forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 3 and dissipate\r\naround day 5.\r\n\r\nWith the help of the ASCAT data, the low-level center was adjusted\r\na tad west of where it was previously estimated, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 350/5 kt.  Kevin should continue northward\r\nbetween a mid-level anticyclone over Mexico and a deep-layer trough\r\noff the west coast of North America for the next 36 hours.  Once the\r\ncyclone weakens and is no longer producing significant deep\r\nconvection, the center is expected to turn westward in the low-level\r\nflow.  The global models appear to be in better agreement on when\r\nthis turn will occur, and the bulk of the guidance now shows a\r\nsharper westward turn after 48 hours.  The new NHC track forecast is\r\ntherefore a bit west of the previous forecast and is close to the\r\nTVCE dynamical consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 17.5N 115.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 18.4N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 19.6N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 20.6N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 21.3N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 22.1N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 22.1N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nKevin has been producing bursts of cold-topped convection this\r\nmorning, although banding features are limited.  The latest Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB are at 45 kt, and this\r\nwill be used for the advisory intensity.  The storm is in an\r\nenvironment of moderate south-southwesterly shear, which should\r\nprevent significant additional strengthening.  However a bit more\r\nintensification could occur, as indicated in the official forecast.\r\nIn a day or so, Kevin is likely to be ingesting drier and more\r\nstable mid-level air and that, along with the shear, should lead to\r\na weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe latest intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe center is difficult to locate on geostationary satellite images,\r\nand the initial motion is an uncertain 350/5.  Over the next couple\r\nof days, Kevin should turn toward the northwest while it moves to\r\nthe southwest of a mid-level anticyclone.  Afterwards, the weakening\r\nand increasingly shallow cyclone should turn westward following the\r\nlow-level steering flow.  The official track forecast is nudged a\r\nbit to the west of the previous one.  This is close to the latest\r\ndynamical model consensus, albeit a little slower in the latter part\r\nof the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 17.9N 115.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 18.8N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 19.9N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 20.9N 116.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 21.5N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 22.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 22.2N 120.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nThe intensity and coverage of deep convection being produced by\r\nKevin has been decreasing, although this may be a diurnal\r\nfluctuation.  There are some ill-defined banding features over the\r\nnorthern semicircle, and the cyclone still has some outflow over\r\nthe southern part of the circulation.  The latter is a bit\r\nsurprising, given the south-southwesterly shear over the system.\r\nThe current intensity is held at 45 kt which is consistent with the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  There is a narrow window of\r\nopportunity for intensification in the short term, i.e. during the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours.  Thereafter, the shear is forecast to increase\r\nand the cyclone should be ingesting drier and more stable air.  The\r\nofficial forecast shows slight strengthening overnight followed by\r\nweakening and eventual degeneration into a remnant low in about 3\r\ndays.  This is very close to the latest model consensus.  Some of\r\nthe guidance, such as the SHIPS model, show an even faster weakening\r\nthan indicated here.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave imagery has provided some good center fixes, and\r\nthe initial motion is a slightly faster 360/7.  Kevin should move\r\nnorthward to northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level\r\nsubtropical anticyclone for the next day or two.  Afterward, the\r\nweakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn toward\r\nthe west and be steered mainly by the low-level flow.  The GFDL and\r\nHWRF models show a much more northward track, and appear to be\r\nunrealistic.  The official track forecast is similar to the previous\r\none, and close to the latest ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 18.7N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 19.8N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 22.0N 116.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 22.3N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015\r\n\r\nIntense thunderstorms have been persisting near the center of Kevin\r\nduring the past several hours, with outflow continuing especially\r\nin the cyclone's northern semicircle.  Microwave data also show that\r\nthe inner core of the storm is better defined than earlier today.\r\nThe initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt, a blend of the 45\r\nkt classification from TAFB and the 55 kt one from SAB. The cyclone\r\nshould reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours or so while the\r\nshear remains low-to-moderate and waters are warm. Thereafter, the\r\nshear is forecast to strengthen and Kevin will encounter more\r\nmarginal SSTs and dry mid-level air, which should cause weakening.\r\nThe official forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the\r\nintensity consensus.  Degeneration into a remnant low in expected\r\nabout 3 days due to a continuation of the higher shear, low moisture\r\nand cool water environment.\r\n\r\nKevin is moving a little faster tonight, estimated at 360/8.  Over\r\nthe next day or so, while the system remains vertically intact, it\r\nshould move generally northward around the southwest side of a mid-\r\nlevel ridge.  Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow\r\ncyclone is likely to turn toward the northwest and west and be\r\nsteered mainly by the low-level flow.  Model guidance, however, is\r\nnot in good agreement on when this leftward turn will occur, with\r\nalmost all of the guidance delaying the turn a bit longer on this\r\ncycle, resulting in Kevin gaining more latitude.  Because Kevin has\r\nnow become a deeper cyclone, it makes sense to move the new NHC\r\nprediction north of the previous one given that Kevin should now\r\ntake a little longer to become a more shallow cyclone.  However, the\r\nnew forecast still lies south of most of the guidance and the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 19.7N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 22.7N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 23.3N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nKevin continues to produce a cluster of convection near the center\r\nwith cloud tops colder than -80C.  However, cirrus cloud motions in\r\ninfrared satellite imagery suggest that southerly vertical wind\r\nshear is increasing over the cyclone, and an AMSU overpass at 0458\r\nUTC suggests the low-level center is near the southern edge of the\r\nconvection.  The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend\r\nof intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite\r\nconsensus technique.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 360/7.  Kevin should move generally northward\r\nfor the next 12-24 hours.  After that time, the dynamical guidance\r\nsuggests that the top and the bottom of the cyclone will part\r\ncompany, with the mid- to upper-level center continuing northward\r\nand the low-level center turning northwestward and then\r\nwest-northwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious track through 48 hours and lies near the various consensus\r\nmodels.  After that time, it is nudged a little northward due to a\r\nnorthward shift in the track guidance.\r\n\r\nThe forecast track takes Kevin over decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures in an environment of increasing shear.  This\r\ncombination should cause steady weakening after 12 hours, with Kevin\r\nforecast to weaken to a depression in about 36 hours an to\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 20.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 22.2N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 23.4N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nKevin's cloud pattern consists of a large circular mass of very deep\r\nconvection, with the low- to mid-level centers nearly co-located as\r\nof several hours.  Since that time, satellite data indicate that the\r\ncyclone has begun the process of decoupling due to the 25 kt of\r\nsouth-southwesterly vertical shear affecting it. Although Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates were T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC,\r\nthe initial wind speed is kept at 50 kt due to the weakening that\r\nhas likely begun.\r\n\r\nEven stronger shear associated with a potent mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough to the northwest of Kevin should result in a complete\r\nseparation of the cyclone's low- to mid-level circulations within 24\r\nhours, according to global models. Substantially drier air behind\r\nthe trough should also be entrained by the cyclone, which should\r\ncause a collapse of deep convection during the next or so.  Global\r\nmodels depict Kevin becoming a remnant low in about 36 hours and\r\nshow dissipation by 72 hours.  The new intensity forecast shows\r\nfaster weakening than the previous one, with remnant low status and\r\ndissipation also indicated sooner.\r\n\r\nBased on fixes from a series of microwave passes overnight, the\r\ncyclone has been moving a little east of due north, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 010/07.  Kevin should turn due north soon when\r\nthe trough to its northwest sinks southward.  As Kevin decouples\r\nduring the next 24 hours, a deceleration is forecast by the model\r\nguidance. A bend in the track toward the northwest and west-\r\nnorthwest is also anticipated during this time, when Kevin meets\r\nthe opposing flow around the low-level subtropical ridge over the\r\neastern Pacific. The new track forecast is on the right side of the\r\nguidance envelope at first, primarily due to the north-northeasterly\r\nmotion overnight but is shifted a bit southward once Kevin becomes a\r\nremnant low.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 21.2N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 22.1N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 22.9N 116.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 23.3N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 23.4N 118.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nKevin is weakening. Its circulation center is on the southern edge\r\nof large circular mass of deep convection that the cyclone has\r\nmaintained since overnight. A sequence of microwave images shows a\r\ngradual dislocation of low- to mid-level centers, evidence that\r\nsouth-southwesterly shear is taking its toll. Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates are gradually decreasing, and a blend of these data is\r\nused to lower the intensity to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nQuick weakening is likely to continue.  A mid- to upper-level trough\r\nimpinging on Kevin from the west should produce even stronger shear\r\nsoon, and global models depict a decoupling of the cyclone in 12\r\nhours or less.  Much drier mid- to upper-tropospheric air associated\r\nwith the trough should also reach Kevin's circulation and result in\r\na collapse of deep convection during the next day or so. The new\r\nintensity forecast calls for a rapid decline, with remnant\r\nlow status by 36 hours and dissipation by 3 days.\r\n\r\nKevin has been moving due northward, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis 360/07.  This general motion is expected until the cyclone fully\r\ndecouples on Saturday.  After that time, the shallower cyclone\r\nshould gain a greater westerly component of motion as it meets the\r\nopposing flow around the low-level subtropical ridge over the\r\neastern Pacific.  The new track forecast is adjusted to the right\r\nagain due to a delay in the north-northwestward motion forecast in\r\nprevious model runs to have begun by now.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 22.0N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 22.8N 115.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 23.4N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 23.7N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 23.6N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the area of convection on the north\r\nside of Kevin continues to move farther away from the apparent\r\ncenter.  The low-level circulation also appeared to be elongating\r\nfrom north to south on the last light visible imagery, with a\r\nrecent microwave pass confirming that degraded structure.  A blend\r\nof Dvorak estimates supports lowering the intensity to 40 kt.\r\nRemnant low status is expected by 36 hours, with the circulation\r\nprobably degenerating into a trough by day 3.\r\n\r\nThe center is getting harder to track, but I don't see convincing\r\nevidence that the initial motion has changed from the previous\r\nadvisory, so it will remain 360/07.  A leftward turn should occur\r\novernight due to the cyclone decoupling from its mid-level center\r\nand being steered more by the low-level flow.  The shallower cyclone\r\nshould then gain a greater westerly component of motion this weekend\r\nas it moves around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern\r\nPacific.  The new track forecast is basically just an update of the\r\nprevious one, and is south of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 22.7N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 23.4N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 23.9N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 24.1N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 24.2N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kevin","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n300 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nSouth-southwesterly shear around 30 kt has displaced all remaining\r\ndeep convection northeastward over the central Baja California\r\npeninsula, more than 120 n mi northeast of the presumed low-level\r\ncenter.  A recent ASCAT pass sampled the western half of the\r\ncirculation and showed no tropical storm force winds.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 35 kt as a blend of the latest Dvorak numbers,\r\nwith the assumption that tropical storm force winds might still be\r\noccurring within the eastern side of the circulation, which wasn't\r\nsampled by the scatterometer.  Strong shear will continue advecting\r\nthe leftover convection away from the low-level circulation, and\r\nbarring redevelopment of new convection, Kevin will likely become a\r\nremnant low later today.  Winds are forecast to quickly decrease,\r\nand the NHC intensity forecast is very close to the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus.  Kevin is expected to dissipate by 48 hours, as shown by\r\nthe latest global model fields.\r\n\r\nThe center has been difficult to locate, but microwave images\r\nsuggest that it has been tugged northeastward by the convection.\r\nThe initial motion is 010/6 kt, but now that Kevin is becoming a\r\nshallow cyclone, it should be steered slowly northwestward and\r\nthen westward by 36 hours.  The latest NHC track forecast is a\r\nlittle east of the previous one, only because of the adjusted\r\ninitial position.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 23.0N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 23.6N 115.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 24.0N 115.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 24.1N 116.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kevin","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP142015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015\r\n900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nStrong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 30 kt\r\nremoved deep convection from Kevin's low-level circulation,\r\nbeginning around 0000 UTC.  The deep convection, along with Kevin's\r\nmid-level circulation, has since dissipated.  With no active\r\nconvection for some time, Kevin is being declared a post-tropical\r\nremnant low.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt in\r\naccordance with the latest satellite classifications and based on\r\nthe assumption that some spin down of the circulation has occurred\r\nsince the last advisory.  Global models depict Kevin degenerating\r\ninto a trough of low pressure in about 12 hours, and the official\r\nforecast indicates dissipation in about a day.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone was moving north-northeastward overnight while slowing\r\ndown, but has since turned northward and recently north-\r\nnorthwestward. The initial motion estimate is now 340/06.  A turn\r\ntoward the northwest is expected before the cyclone dissipates\r\ntomorrow in agreement with the track model guidance.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on this remnant low, please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\r\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 23.6N 114.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n900 PM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located\r\nsouthwest of Mexico now has a well-defined center and organized\r\ndeep convection.  Therefore, it is now a tropical depression, with\r\nthe current intensity of 30 kt based on the latest satellite\r\nestimate from TAFB.  Buoy 43546 also reported a pressure of\r\n1001.4 mb a couple of hours ago while the center passed.\r\n\r\nModerate northeasterly shear is forecast to decrease by the global\r\nmodels by late tomorrow, which should allow the depression to\r\nintensify into a tropical storm.  Thereafter, very warm waters, high\r\nvalues of mid-level moisture and light shear are expected through\r\nTuesday.  These conditions should promote strengthening to a\r\nhurricane early next week, with almost all of the guidance agreeing\r\nwith this general scenario.  Thereafter, SSTs are expected to become\r\nmarginal by day 4, with an increase in shear also in the forecast,\r\nlikely causing weakening by that time. The NHC wind speed prediction\r\nis near or above the model consensus for most of the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northwestward at about 9 kt.  This general\r\nmotion is expected for the next 2-3 days while the cyclone remains\r\non the southwestern side of a large mid-level ridge over Mexico.\r\nModels are in fairly good agreement on this scenario through that\r\ntime.  The forecast is more challenging in the longer range due to\r\nvarious depictions of the strength of the ridge over the eastern\r\nPacific and the vertical depth of the tropical cyclone.  Given the\r\nuncertainties, the official forecast stays fairly close to the model\r\nconsensus at days 4 and 5, but leans in the direction of the ECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 13.1N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 14.1N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 15.5N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 17.0N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 18.5N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 20.2N 115.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n300 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the depression has increased in\r\ncoverage overnight, but the overall organization of the cyclone has\r\nnot changed very much.  The center appears to be located near the\r\neastern edge of the deep convection due to moderate northeasterly\r\nshear.  An ASCAT overpass at 0416 UTC was very helpful in locating\r\nthe center and revealed wind speeds of around 30 kt, which is used\r\nas the initial intensity for this advisory. The shear is forecast\r\nto decrease during the next 24 hours, which should allow for steady\r\nstrengthening, and the depression is likely to become a tropical\r\nstorm very soon.  The cyclone is expected to remain in a favorable\r\nenvironment through late Tuesday, and the NHC forecast calls for\r\nthe system to become a hurricane within the next couple of days.\r\nThis is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM models.  After 72 hours,\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures and increasing shear should\r\ncause weakening by days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northwestward at about 10 kt.  The cyclone\r\nis expected to continue moving northwestward over the next 3 to 4\r\ndays while it remains on the southwestern side of a mid-level\r\nridge over Mexico.  The models are in relatively good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, but have trended a little northward after 72 hours\r\nand indicate a faster forward motion through much of the forecast\r\nperiod.  As a result, the new NHC forecast is faster than the\r\nprevious advisory, and has also been nudged northward after 48\r\nhours. The new forecast lies along the southern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope in best agreement with the GFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 13.7N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 14.9N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 16.4N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 18.2N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 21.7N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 23.0N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 24.0N 122.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n900 AM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that deep convection associated with the\r\ndepression has been increasing during the last several hours and\r\nbanding features are becoming better established on the west side\r\nof the circulation.  The Dvorak classifications have increased to\r\n3.0/45 kt from TAFB and 2.5/35 kt from SAB.  The latest ADT value\r\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin is 2.9/43 kt.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt, making the\r\nsystem Tropical Storm Linda.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images indicate that the center of Linda is located\r\non the northeast side of the main area of convection due to\r\nnortheasterly shear.  This shear, however, is not expected to be\r\nstrong enough to prevent strengthening while Linda remains embedded\r\nin a moist air mass and over 28-29 degree C waters during the next\r\ncouple of days.  After 48 hours, the atmosphere is expected to be\r\ndrier and more stable near Linda and water temperatures lower along\r\nthe forecast track.  These conditions should halt intensification\r\nand result in a gradual weakening of the cyclone.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is higher than the previous one and a little above the\r\nintensity model consensus, favoring the solutions of the SHIPS and\r\nLGEM models.\r\n\r\nLinda is moving northwestward at about 10 kt, steered by a mid-level\r\nhigh pressure system centered over northern Mexico and the southern\r\nUnited States.  The ridge is expected to more or less remain in\r\nplace during the next couple of days, which should keep Linda on\r\nthe same general course.  After that time, a slowdown is predicted\r\nas the ridge weakens some.  The NHC track forecast has again been\r\nshifted a little to the north and is faster than the previous one,\r\ntrending toward the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 14.1N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 15.5N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 17.3N 111.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 19.0N 113.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 20.3N 114.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 22.2N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 23.9N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 25.0N 122.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n300 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nLinda is strengthening.  Satellite images indicate that banding\r\nfeatures have become better defined during the last several hours,\r\nand deep convection has been persisting near the center.  The\r\ncirculation and cloud field of Linda are quite large, extending\r\nseveral hundred miles across.  The Dvorak classifications at 1800\r\nUTC have increased to 3.5/55 kt from TAFB, 3.0/45 kt from SAB, and\r\nADT values from UW-CIMSS are around 3.4/53 kt.  Based on these\r\nestimates, the initial wind speed is raised to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nAdditional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days as\r\nthe shear is expected to remain relatively light while the cyclone\r\nis embedded within a moist air mass and over warm waters. After 48\r\nhours, however, Linda is expected to move over progressively cooler\r\nwater and into a drier and more stable air mass.  These conditions\r\nshould end the strengthening trend, and induce a gradual weakening.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast shows a higher peak intensity than the\r\nprevious one and leans toward the upper end of the guidance, in best\r\nagreement with the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nLinda continues to move northwestward at about 9 kt on the\r\nsouthwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system located over\r\nnorthern Mexico and the southern United States. The ridge is\r\nexpected to be nearly stationary during the next couple of days,\r\nwhich should keep Linda moving northwestward at a similar or\r\nslightly faster forward speed.  After that time, a slowdown is\r\npredicted as the ridge weakens some and shifts westward.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast has again been shifted a little to the north of the\r\nprevious one, trending toward the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 14.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 16.1N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 18.0N 112.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 19.7N 114.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 21.1N 115.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 23.0N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 24.6N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 25.4N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n900 PM MDT SUN SEP 06 2015\r\n\r\nLinda has been rapidly intensifying.  Within the cyclone's sprawling\r\ncirculation, a relatively small central dense overcast (CDO) has\r\nformed during the last 6 to 12 hours over the estimated low-level\r\ncenter.  The deep convection within this feature has expanded in\r\ncoverage, the associated cloud tops have cooled considerably, and\r\nits shape has become increasingly more symmetric.  A 0110 UTC\r\nWindsat pass confirmed the rapid increase of inner-core structural\r\norganization, with a closed low-level ring of convection evident. A\r\nTAFB satellite classification of a T4.0/65 kt and the latest\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT value of 4.2/70 kt are used to raise the initial\r\nintensity to 65 kt.\r\n\r\nThe current rapid intensification is likely to continue for another\r\n24 hours or so, since Linda will be moving over anomalously warm\r\nwaters of 28 to 29.5 deg C and embedded in a very moist environment.\r\nThe only negative factor could be some northeasterly shear as\r\nindicated in SHIPS model output.  However, this shear has not\r\nprevented Linda from strengthening much faster than the\r\nclimatological rate of one T-number per day thus far.  A more\r\npoleward and faster track forecast (described below) should bring\r\nLinda over cooler waters sooner, and increasingly unfavorable\r\nthermodynamic factors should cause rapid weakening to begin in 2 to\r\n3 days.  Remnant low status is shown at day 5, but it would not be\r\nsurprising if it occurred earlier.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nhigher than the previous one and shows a peak intensity in 24 hours.\r\nOverall, it is just above the strongest guidance, the SHIPS and FSU\r\nSuperensemble output, in the short term and near the multi-model\r\nconsensus after that.\r\n\r\nLinda has been moving more poleward and faster, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 320/12.  Water vapor and upper-air analyses show\r\na large mid-level anticyclone near the Texas-Mexico border, with a\r\nweakness in the ridge between 120-130W.  Global models show Linda\r\nmoving northwestward to north-northwestward toward the break in this\r\nridge within a deep-layer southeasterly flow during the next couple\r\nof days.  As the ridge weakens and shifts westward over northern\r\nMexico in 2 to 3 days, Linda should continue northwestward but\r\ndecelerate.  The rapid weakening forecast to begin around that time\r\nshould make Linda a progressively shallower cyclone, and its track\r\nis forecast to bend west-northwestward and westward by days 4 and 5\r\nas it will then be under the influence of the low-level subtropical\r\nridge.  The new track forecast is shifted to the right and faster\r\nthan the previous one through 72 hours, and is close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.  By day 5, the track is slower and a bit to\r\nthe left of the old forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 17.3N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 19.2N 113.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 20.9N 114.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 22.1N 115.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 24.2N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 25.0N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 25.2N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n300 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nLinda has continued to rapidly strengthen overnight. An 0631 UTC\r\nGMI microwave overpass shows that a well-defined eye has developed\r\nwithin the very symmetric central dense overcast (CDO) feature that\r\nis seen in conventional satellite imagery.  The eye has not yet\r\nbecome evident in the infrared satellite data.  The initial wind\r\nspeed has been increased to 75 kt, which is in agreement with the\r\nlatest TAFB Dvorak classification and ADT intensity estimates from\r\nUW/CIMSS.\r\n\r\nLinda is likely to continue to rapidly strengthen today.  The\r\nhurricane will be traversing very warm water and remain in a\r\nmoist, low shear environment.  The NHC intensity forecast now brings\r\nLinda to major hurricane strength in 24 hours, which is slightly\r\nabove the intensity guidance.  After that time, decreasing SSTs and\r\nless favorable thermodynamic factors are expected to cause\r\nweakening. A faster rate of decay is likely after 48 hours when\r\nLinda moves over SSTs below 26C and into a much more stable\r\nenvironment.  The latter portion of the intensity forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to the\r\nSHIPS model.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/12.  The hurricane is forecast\r\nto move northwestward during the next 2 to 3 days around the western\r\nportion of a mid-level ridge that is centered over northern Mexico.\r\nAfter that time, a weaker Linda should turn west-northwestward,\r\nand then westward in the low to mid-level flow on the southern\r\nside of a low-level ridge.  The track guidance is in good agreement\r\non this scenario.  The guidance has shifted a bit to the north at\r\n72 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted\r\naccordingly.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 16.7N 111.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 18.2N 112.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 20.0N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 21.5N 115.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 22.8N 116.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 25.2N 118.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 26.0N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 26.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n900 AM MDT MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nLinda continues to gain strength.  The cloud pattern consists of a\r\nwell organized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops and\r\ncurved bands spiraling around it.  There is no eye feature evident\r\nin satellite images, but a recent SSMIS microwave pass did indicate\r\nthat an eye was present.  A blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers\r\nfrom TAFB/SAB and ADT values from UW-CIMSS support raising the\r\ninitial intensity to 85 kt, making Linda a category 2 hurricane on\r\nthe Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The rate of intensification\r\nof Linda has been an impressive 45 kt over the past 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane remains in a moist and relatively low wind shear\r\nenvironment and over 28-29 deg C waters.  These favorable\r\nconditions should allow Linda to strengthen some more today, and it\r\ncould reach major hurricane status by tonight.  After that time, the\r\nwaters begin to cool beneath the storm and environmental relative\r\nhumidity values decrease.  These more stable conditions should\r\ninduce a weakening trend, and the cyclone is expected to become a\r\nremnant low in 4-5 days when it moves over sea surface temperatures\r\nof around 24 deg C.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above\r\nthe guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the intensity\r\nmodel consensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nLinda has been on a steady northwestward track at about 12 kt for\r\nthe past 12-24 hours, steered by a mid-level high centered over\r\nnorthern Mexico and the southern United States.  This motion is\r\nexpected to continue for about another day as the steering pattern\r\nis maintained.  After that time, the storm is expected to\r\ndecelerate, as the high shifts westward and weakens, and then turn\r\ngradually westward once it becomes a shallow system by the end of\r\nthe forecast period.  The model guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous\r\ntrack forecast.\r\n\r\nAlthough Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions\r\nof the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 17.6N 112.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 19.2N 113.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 20.8N 114.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 22.2N 115.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 23.6N 116.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 25.7N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 26.3N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 26.1N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n300 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nAfter strengthening at a rapid pace for the past day or so, it\r\nappears that Linda's intensity is leveling off.  The cloud pattern\r\nhas not changed much since the last advisory and consists of a well\r\norganized central dense overcast with very cold cloud tops.  There\r\nremains no evidence of an eye in geostationary satellite pictures,\r\nalthough a ragged eye is apparent in microwave images.  The latest\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are both 5.0/90 kt, so the\r\ninitial wind speed is nudged upward to that value.\r\n\r\nLinda could strengthen a little more through tonight while it\r\nremains over warm water and in a moist and relatively low shear\r\nenvironment.  After that time, however, cooler water and a dry and\r\nstable air mass should promote steady weakening.  The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and is\r\nin fair agreement with the intensity model consensus.  This forecast\r\ncalls for Linda to degenerate into a remnant low in about 4 days\r\nwhen the cyclone is expected to be over sea surface temperatures of\r\nabout 24 deg C.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is still moving northwestward but at a slightly\r\nslower forward speed than earlier, 320/10 kt.  A continued\r\nnorthwestward motion at about the same forward speed is predicted\r\nfor the next 24 to 36 hours while a mid-level high pressure system\r\nremains centered over northern Mexico and the southern United\r\nStates. After that time, the storm is expected to decelerate, as the\r\nhigh shifts westward and weakens, and then turn gradually westward\r\nonce it becomes a shallow system by the end of the forecast period.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one,\r\nespecially at days 3-5, to come into better agreement with the\r\nlatest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nAlthough Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions\r\nof the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 18.3N 112.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 19.6N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 21.2N 114.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 22.7N 115.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 24.0N 116.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 25.8N 118.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 26.4N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/1800Z 26.4N 122.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n900 PM MDT MON SEP 07 2015\r\n\r\nLinda's cloud pattern has become less organized since earlier today.\r\n A 0116 UTC SSMIS pass showed the low-level center on the\r\nnortheastern tip of the deepest convection, to the northeast of\r\nprevious estimates.  The distribution of convection in the cyclone's\r\ncentral dense overcast has also become somewhat asymmetric. The\r\ncurrent structural organization of the cyclone suggests that\r\nmoderate northeasterly shear over the cyclone has been a factor in\r\nthe system's evolution today.  The initial intensity estimate is\r\nlowered to 80 kt, on the lower end of a blend of Dvorak Final T- and\r\nCI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Although most large-scale factors\r\ncould favor some additional intensification, the current arrested\r\ndevelopment is likely to continue as Linda continues to feel the\r\neffect of northeasterly shear associated with an upper-level\r\nanticyclone to its northeast.  Within 24 to 36 hours, Linda will be\r\ntraversing marginally cool waters and ingesting drier and more\r\nstable air, which should result in slow but steady weakening.  The\r\nrate of weakening should become rapid in 2 to 3 days once Linda\r\nreaches even colder waters and thermodynamic factors become\r\nincreasingly more hostile. Remnant low status is now predicted in 3\r\ndays. The new NHC forecast is lowered relative to the previous one\r\nand generally lies near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nLinda has been moving northwestward or 325/09 throughout the day.\r\nThe cyclone is moving in a deep-layer southeasterly flow on the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge located over northern\r\nMexico.  The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next couple of\r\ndays, which should result in a decrease in Linda's forward speed\r\nwhile it maintains about the same heading. The low-level trades\r\nshould begin to steer the cyclone west-northwestward in 2 to 3 days,\r\nand then westward after that time as Linda weakens and becomes an\r\nincreasingly shallower cyclone. The NHC track forecast has been\r\nadjusted to the right of the previous one, based on a re-positioning\r\nof the center based on recent microwave fixes.\r\n\r\nAlthough Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions\r\nof the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 18.8N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 20.4N 113.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 21.8N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 23.1N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 24.4N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 25.9N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 26.3N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0000Z 26.3N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n300 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nRecent microwave data indicate that the inner-core structure of\r\nLinda has improved since the previous advisory.  A couple of AMSU\r\noverpasses show that the primary convective band once again\r\nwraps around the center, and that a ragged eye is trying to\r\nform.  The microwave images and 0516 UTC ASCAT data were very\r\nhelpful in locating the center of Linda, and these data indicate\r\nthat the center is more embedded within the CDO than earlier\r\nin the evening.  The initial intensity is maintained at 80 kt, which\r\nis between the various Dvorak intensity estimates.  Given the recent\r\nincrease in inner core organization, the initial wind speed estimate\r\ncould be a little conservative.\r\n\r\nAlthough the official intensity forecast shows no change in\r\nstrength during the next 12 hours, environmental conditions\r\nconsisting of warm water and relatively low shear could allow\r\nfor a little intensification this morning.  After that time,\r\ngradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and less favorable\r\nthermodynamic factors should cause weakening.  The spin down should\r\nbecome more rapid in 36 to 48 hours when Linda moves over SSTs\r\nbelow 26 degrees Celsius and into a more stable environment.  The\r\ntropical cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low in about\r\n72 hours.\r\n\r\nLinda has been moving a little to the right of previous estimates,\r\nand the motion is now north-northwest or 335/9 kt. The model\r\nguidance suggests that the motion will bend back toward the\r\nnorthwest later today as the cyclone moves around the western\r\nportion of a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico.  After 72\r\nhours, the remnant low is expected to turn west-northwestward, and\r\nthen westward in the low-level flow to the west of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  The model envelope has again shifted to the\r\nright and the NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly.\r\n\r\nAlthough Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions\r\nof the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 21.1N 113.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 22.5N 115.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 23.8N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 25.0N 117.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 26.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 27.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n900 AM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Linda has improved this morning, with\r\nan eye becoming apparent in infrared imagery. Dvorak satellite\r\nclassifications were T6.0/115 kt from TAFB and T5.5/102 kt from\r\nSAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimates have increased to T5.9/112 kt.\r\nThe initial intensity is set conservatively to 105 kt given the\r\nrapid change in the satellite presentation and the variation seen in\r\nthe definition of the eye in recent images. This makes Linda the\r\nfifth major hurricane in the eastern North Pacific basin this year.\r\n\r\nIt would appear that Linda is peaking in intensity now, as the\r\ncyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a\r\ndrier more stable environment over the next several days. Slow\r\nweakening is forecast today, followed by more rapid weakening due to\r\nthe above-mentioned unfavorable factors. The new NHC forecast is\r\nhigher than the previous one through 24 hours to account for the\r\ninitial intensity, but is similar to the previous official forecast\r\nafter that time. Linda should become a remnant low in about 3 days\r\nover very cool waters west of the Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nLinda has been moving a little faster during the past few hours,\r\nwith an initial motion estimate of 335/12. The tropical cyclone\r\nshould turn toward the northwest later today under the influence of\r\na subtropical ridge centered over Mexico. The remnant low is then\r\nforecast to turn west-northwestward and westward by the end of the\r\nperiod as it is steered by the low-level flow. The track model\r\nguidance has continued to shift toward the right this cycle, and is\r\nalso a bit faster. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to account\r\nfor those trends, and now lies on the left side of the guidance\r\nenvelope, between the ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions\r\nof the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. The\r\nanalyzed 12-ft seas radii were increased based on data from a recent\r\nJason-2 satellite altimeter pass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 21.3N 113.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 22.3N 114.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 23.7N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 25.0N 117.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 26.1N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 27.3N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n300 PM MDT TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nLinda still has an impressive satellite presentation, and appears\r\nto have peaked shortly after the last advisory was issued. A\r\ndistinct eye in infrared imagery is surrounded by a CDO with cloud\r\ntop temperatures of -70 to -80C. The initial intensity is set to\r\n110 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimate of T5.5/102 kt\r\nfrom SAB and T6.0/115 kt from TAFB. The 34-kt wind radii were\r\nadjusted outward based on an ASCAT-B pass around 1700 UTC.\r\n\r\nLinda will be crossing the 27C SST isotherm soon, and the cyclone\r\nshould begin to slowly weaken. Rapid weakening is expected between\r\n24 and 48 hours as the cyclone moves over much cooler SSTs and into\r\na stable, dry environment. Remnant low status is forecast by 72\r\nhours. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and is close to the latest intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 325/12, as Linda has wobbled a bit\r\nto the left of the previous track. The overall track forecast\r\nreasoning remains unchanged, as a weakening Linda should move\r\nnorthwestward under the influence of a subtropical ridge centered\r\nover Mexico. The remnant low is then forecast to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward and westward by the end of the period as it is steered\r\nby the low-level flow. The new NHC forecast has been adjusted to\r\naccount for the initial motion through 36 hours, and is largely an\r\nupdate of the previous NHC track after that time. The NHC forecast\r\ncontinues to lie on the left side of the guidance envelope, between\r\nthe ECMWF and the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions\r\nof the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 21.9N 114.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 23.0N 115.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 24.4N 117.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 25.6N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 26.5N 119.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 27.4N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 27.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1800Z 27.5N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-09-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 08 2015\r\n\r\nCloud tops within Linda's CDO feature have warmed significantly\r\nsince the previous advisory, likely due to the erosion of eyewall\r\nconvection in the northern semicircle caused by the entrainment\r\nof dry mid-level air as noted in recent microwave satellite\r\nimagery. Although the 15 n mi diameter eye remains quite distinct,\r\nsatellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply. The initial\r\nintensity of 100 kt is based on an average of Dvorak satellite\r\nT-numbers and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 325/11 kt. The track and forecast\r\nreasoning remain unchanged. The NHC model guidance is in very good\r\nagreement on Linda moving northwestward for the next 48 hours,\r\nfollowed by a turn to the west-northwest by 72 hours. After that\r\ntime, the model tracks are widely divergent based on the intensity\r\nand resultant vertical depth of the cyclone on days 4 and 5. The\r\nECMWF takes a weak remnant low due west, whereas the stronger GFS\r\nand HWRF models take Linda more poleward. The official forecast at\r\n96 and 120 hours is a compromise of these extremes and lies close\r\nto the TCVE and GFEX consensus model tracks.\r\n\r\nLinda will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and over upper-ocean-heat-\r\ncontent (UOHC) values of near zero about 12 hours, while the\r\nhurricane is slowing down to less than 10 kt of forward speed. This\r\nshould result in significant cold upwelling beneath the cyclone and\r\ninduce a rapid weakening phase. As result, Linda is expected to\r\nweaken to a tropical storm by Thursday morning, a depression by\r\nThursday night, and a remnant low on Friday. The official intensity\r\nforecast follows the downward trend of the previous forecast and the\r\nIVCN intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nAlthough Linda is forecast to remain well offshore of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, large swells are expected to affect portions\r\nof the west coast of that peninsula during the next few days. In\r\naddition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is expected\r\nto spread northward into portions of the southwestern U.S. by day 2\r\nand beyond, which could help trigger locally heavy rainfall. For\r\nadditional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA\r\nWeather Prediction Center and your local weather forecast office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 22.7N 115.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 23.7N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 25.0N 117.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 26.1N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 26.9N 119.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 27.6N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 27.8N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0000Z 27.6N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-09-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nLinda's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate overnight, with\r\nthe eye becoming much less distinct and the surrounding cloud tops\r\nhave warmed.  The latest microwave imagery also shows that the\r\nnortheastern portion of the eye has eroded.  The initial wind speed\r\nhas been lowered to 85 kt, which is based on a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Linda will be moving\r\nover SSTs below 26C and into a drier and more stable air mass\r\ntoday. This should result in rapid weakening and Linda is forecast\r\nto become a tropical storm within 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant\r\nlow in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the\r\nSHIPS guidance and the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nLinda is moving northwestward or 325/10 kt. The cyclone is expected\r\nto continue moving northwestward with some reduction in forward\r\nspeed over the next couple of days.  After that time, the more\r\nshallow cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, and then\r\nwestward in the low-level flow west of the Baja peninsula.  The\r\nofficial track forecast lies between the GFS, which takes a stronger\r\nLinda more northward, and the ECMWF model that moves a weaker Linda\r\nmore westward.\r\n\r\nLarge swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central\r\nportions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula.\r\nThese swells are expected to spread northward into southern\r\nCalifornia by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and\r\nupper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into portions\r\nof the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which could\r\ntrigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please\r\nconsult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and\r\nyour local weather forecast office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 23.2N 116.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 24.2N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 25.4N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 26.3N 119.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 26.9N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 27.5N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 27.5N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0600Z 27.0N 124.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Linda","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-09-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to diminish in association with Linda,\r\nwith only a small area of cold cloud tops near and west of the\r\ncenter. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt based on a\r\nblend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\nFurther rapid weakening is expected as Linda moves over cooler SSTs\r\nand into a dry, stable air mass. Linda should become a remnant low\r\nby 48 hours, or even a bit sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 325/11. Linda should continue moving\r\nnorthwestward for the next 36 hours and then turn gradually more\r\nwestward as the cyclone becomes a shallow system steered by the\r\nlow-level flow. By the end of the period, a motion toward the\r\nsouthwest or south-southwest is possible. The new NHC track forecast\r\nis similar to the previous one but has been adjusted a bit to the\r\nright and faster to account for the initial position and motion and\r\nthe latest trends in the guidance. The NHC forecast is generally\r\nclose to or a little to the right of the ECMWF through much of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nLarge swells from Linda are affecting the southern and central\r\nportions of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula.\r\nThese swells are expected to reach the Pacific coast of the northern\r\nBaja California peninsula today and reach southern California by\r\nThursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture\r\nis expected to spread northward into portions of the southwestern\r\nU.S. during the next day or two, which could trigger locally heavy\r\nrainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued\r\nby the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast\r\noffice.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 24.2N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 25.2N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 26.3N 118.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 27.0N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 27.4N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 28.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 28.0N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/1200Z 27.5N 124.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-09-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nLinda continues to weaken, with the remaining deep convection\r\nbecoming displaced from the low-level center due to southerly shear.\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak Final-T and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Further weakening\r\nis forecast due to cool waters and a dry, stable air mass along the\r\ntrack of Linda. Linda is forecast to weaken to a depression by 24\r\nhours and become a remnant low by 36 hours. The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 325/09, and microwave imagery\r\nsuggests that the surface center of Linda is a little behind\r\nprevious estimates as it begins to separate from the convection.\r\nLinda is forecast to continue moving northwestward around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 24 to 36\r\nhours. Then the remnant low of Linda should gradually turn westward\r\nand then southward in the low-level flow before dissipating in about\r\n5 days. The new NHC track is along the previous one, but is a bit\r\nslower given the initial position and motion through 48 hours. After\r\nthat time, a slower motion and faster southward turn is shown before\r\ndissipation, in agreement with the latest trends in the track\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nLarge swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach\r\nsouthern California by Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid-\r\nand upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into\r\nportions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which\r\ncould trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information,\r\nplease consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center\r\nand your local NWS forecast office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 24.4N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 25.4N 118.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 26.4N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 27.0N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 27.3N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 27.6N 122.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 27.0N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-09-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 09 2015\r\n\r\nLinda's weakening trend continues. Most of the convection with cloud\r\ntops of -45 to -55 deg C has now been displaced primarily into the\r\nnorthern quadrant deep due to moderate southerly vertical wind\r\nshear. The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a consensus Dvorak\r\nCI-number of 3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. The NHC model guidance\r\nremains in fairy good agreement on Linda moving northwestward around\r\nthe southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge for the next 36\r\nhours or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest\r\nand west after that as the cyclone weakens into a shallow remnant\r\nlow and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The official\r\nforecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and lies down the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope near the consensus model, TCVE.\r\n\r\nA comparison of low-level positions from microwave imagery with the\r\nvisible and infrared location of the upper-level circulation clearly\r\nindicates that the surface and upper-level circulations continue to\r\ndecouple. Linda is currently crossing the 24 deg C SST isotherm and\r\nis headed for 23 C water, so additional weakening is forecast as\r\nconvection continues to wane due to rapidly worsening thermodynamic\r\nconditions. The cyclone is forecast to weaken to a depression within\r\nthe next 24 hours and become a remnant low by 36 hours, if not\r\nsooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and the IVCN intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nLarge swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, and these swells are expected to reach\r\nsouthern California on Thursday. In addition, some of Linda's mid-\r\nand upper-level moisture is expected to spread northward into\r\nportions of the southwestern U.S. during the next day or two, which\r\ncould trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information,\r\nplease consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center\r\nand your local NWS forecast office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 25.0N 117.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 25.8N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 26.6N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 27.1N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 27.3N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 27.4N 122.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 26.8N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-09-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015\r\n\r\nLinda continues to decay.  Much of the deep convection has now\r\ndissipated, and the cyclone is weakening over cool water and within\r\na stable air mass.  A pair of ASCAT passes recently sampled the\r\ncirculation of Linda and revealed that the winds and are near 40\r\nkt. This is in agreement with an average of the Dvorak Final T- and\r\nCI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The scatterometer data also\r\nindicated that the size of the tropical storm force wind field has\r\ndecreased considerably and is confined to an area within 60 n mi\r\nnorth of the center. Additional weakening is forecast since sea\r\nsurface temperatures are expected to decrease even more along the\r\nprojected path.  Linda will likely become a tropical depression\r\nlater today and a remnant low by tonight. Dissipation is forecast to\r\noccur in about 4 days, following the global model guidance.\r\n\r\nThe weakening storm is moving northwestward at 8 kt.  A gradual\r\nturn to the west-northwest and then west with a decrease in forward\r\nspeed is predicted over the next few days as the cyclone is steered\r\nby the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little\r\nto the right of the previous one and is very near a consensus of\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nLarge swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and southern California.  These swells could\r\ncontinue for another day or so.  In addition, some of Linda's mid-\r\nand upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the\r\nsouthwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For\r\nadditional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA\r\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 25.6N 118.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 26.3N 118.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 26.9N 119.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 27.3N 120.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 27.5N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 27.6N 122.3W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Linda","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-09-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015\r\n\r\nLinda remains void of any organized deep convection and the\r\nmid-level circulation is decoupling from the low-level vortex. The\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates and assuming some decay since last night's\r\nASCAT passes. Gradual spin down of the circulation is forecast as\r\nit moves over cool waters during the next few days, and if deep\r\nconvection does not return, Linda will likely become a remnant low\r\nlater today.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/06. A gradual turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest is forecast during the next day or so with a\r\ndecrease in forward speed as the shallow vortex is steered by the\r\nlow-level flow. Before the cyclone dissipates in 3 to 4 days, a\r\nmotion south of due west is possible. The new NHC track forecast is\r\nan update of the previous one and is close to the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nLarge swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and southern California.  These swells could\r\ncontinue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid-\r\nand upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the\r\nsouthwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For\r\nadditional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA\r\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 26.0N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 26.6N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 27.1N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 27.4N 121.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 27.6N 122.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Linda","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-09-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP152015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152015\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 10 2015\r\n\r\nLinda is now a swirl of low clouds that has been devoid of deep\r\nconvection for more than 12 hours. Based on the lack of convection,\r\nLinda is now a post-tropical cyclone and this will be the last NHC\r\nadvisory. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a blend of\r\nthe latest Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB. The circulation of Linda\r\nshould gradually spin down over the next 2 to 3 days until the\r\ncyclone dissipates.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 320/06. The remnant low should\r\ngradually turn toward the west-northwest and then toward the west\r\nover the next 2 days as the low becomes steered by the low-level\r\nflow. A turn to the south of due west is shown at 72 hours. The new\r\nNHC track forecast is a little to the north of the previous one\r\nbased on the latest trends in the track guidance.\r\n\r\nLarge swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and southern California. These swells could\r\ncontinue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid-\r\nand upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the\r\nsouthwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For\r\nadditional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA\r\nWeather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 26.4N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 26.9N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 27.4N 120.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 27.7N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 27.8N 122.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 27.2N 123.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP162015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015\r\n300 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015\r\n\r\nRecent ASCAT data indicate that the low pressure area off the west\r\ncoast of the Baja California peninsula has a low-level center\r\nlocated within a 30-45 nm wide area of light winds.  This area is\r\nsmall enough to meet the criterion of a well-defined center, and\r\nthe low is therefore being classified as a tropical depression.\r\nThe ASCAT data and a recent ship report indicate that the intensity\r\nis 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe depression is located between a mid-level ridge centered over\r\nthe northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a mid-/upper-level cut-off low\r\nlocated well west of the Baja California peninsula.  This pattern\r\nis steering the depression quickly north-northwestward with an\r\ninitial motion of 345/12 kt.  The depression is expected to turn\r\nnorthward soon and continue that heading through 36 hours.  The\r\ntrack guidance is tightly clustered, and the NHC official track\r\nforecast is very close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nThe depression will be moving across the Baja California peninsula\r\nby tonight, and southwesterly shear is expected to increase to near\r\n25 kt in 12 hours and 35-40 kt by 24 hours.  Therefore,\r\nstrengthening is not expected, and the system should remain as a\r\ntropical depression while it moves across the Baja California\r\npeninsula and the Gulf of California.  The associated deep\r\nconvection is likely to be sheared away from the center by 36\r\nhours, making the system a remnant low when it moves into southern\r\nArizona.  Dissipation is expected by 48 hours.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with the depression is expected to cause heavy\r\nrainfall across portions of the Baja California peninsula,\r\nnorthwestern mainland Mexico, southern California, and Arizona\r\nduring the next several days.  These rains could cause\r\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of\r\nmountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 25.0N 113.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 27.1N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 30.3N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 32.8N 112.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP162015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015\r\n900 PM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone has not intensified this evening, with much of\r\nthe deep convection being sheared off to the northeast of the\r\nestimated low-level center.  The current intensity estimate remains\r\nat 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak analyses from both SAB and TAFB.\r\nSince the center is expected to move over the south-central Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula tonight and move back inland later tomorrow\r\nwhile southwesterly shear is forecast to remain strong, no increase\r\nin strength is expected. The influence of land should reduce the\r\ncyclone to a remnant low pressure area over Arizona by late Monday,\r\nand the surface center should lose its identity shortly thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe center is not easy to locate on geostationary satellite\r\nimagery, so the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain\r\n010/13.  A mid-level ridge to the east of the depression along with\r\na cyclonic circulation to the west should induce a north-\r\nnortheastward motion through Monday.  The track guidance is\r\nin general agreement on a slight acceleration through tomorrow\r\nmorning, and is a little to the right of the previous model runs.\r\nThe official forecast is shifted slightly to the east of the\r\nprevious one.  This is close to the latest model consensus with a\r\nlittle additional weight given to the reliable ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with the depression is spreading northward, and\r\nexpected to cause heavy rainfall across portions of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, northwestern mainland Mexico, southern\r\nCalifornia, and Arizona during the next several days.  These rains\r\ncould cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially\r\nin areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 26.2N 113.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 28.7N 113.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 31.5N 112.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 34.0N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP162015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015\r\n300 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E moved inland a little\r\nbefore 0600 UTC over the south-central portion of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula with estimated maximum winds of about 30 kt. A\r\npair of ASCAT passes from around 0400 and 0500 UTC showed a narrow\r\nswath of southeasterly winds of 35-40 kt over the Gulf of California\r\nwell to the northeast of the circulation center. These winds were\r\nlikely being enhanced by the local terrain and may not directly be\r\nassociated with the depression.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is producing a considerable amount of deep convection,\r\nbut this activity is confined to the northeastern quadrant of the\r\ncirculation due to about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind\r\nshear. It appears that the low- and mid-level centers of the\r\nsystem have separated, and since even stronger shear and land\r\ninteraction with mainland Mexico is expected, weakening is\r\nforecast. The depression will likely become a remnant low or\r\ndissipate entirely in about 24 hours when it is forecast to be over\r\nthe southwestern United States.\r\n\r\nThe system is moving north-northeastward at about 15 kt, embedded in\r\nthe flow between a mid-level high pressure system over Mexico and a\r\ncut off low well to the west of Baja California.  This general\r\nmotion should continue until the cyclone dissipates.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is a little to the east of the previous one and close to a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from the depression is expected to be heavy rainfall\r\nover portions of northwestern Mexico, Arizona, and New Mexico.\r\nPortions of these areas could receive rainfall amounts of 3 to 5\r\ninches with isolated amounts of 12 inches possible during the next\r\nday or two.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods\r\nand mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 27.7N 112.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 29.9N 111.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 32.9N 110.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP162015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015\r\n900 AM MDT MON SEP 21 2015\r\n\r\nGOES-15 shortwave I/R and first visible images show that the\r\ndepression made landfall just to the northwest of Bahia Kino in the\r\nMexican state of Sonora.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt\r\nbased on the subjective intensity estimates and surface\r\nobservations along the coast of the Gulf of California.  Weakening\r\nis forecast as the cyclone moves further inland, and the depression\r\nis expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area, or\r\npossibly dissipate, later today.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving north-northeastward and a little faster\r\nnow, about 16 kt, and this general motion should continue until\r\ndissipation occurs.  The official forecast is a little faster than\r\nthe previous advisory and is nudged toward the multi-model consensus\r\nTVCX.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from the depression continues to be heavy rainfall\r\nproduced by the deep convection displaced well to the northeast\r\nof the surface circulation.  The depression is expected to produce\r\nrainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches across the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, the northwestern Mexican state of Sonora,\r\nand Arizona and New Mexico.  Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches\r\nare possible in Baja California and Sonora, Mexico.  Isolated\r\nmaximum amounts of 8 inches are possible in Arizona and New Mexico.\r\n1 to 2 inches of rain is expected over portions of southern\r\nCalifornia through Tuesday.  This rainfall could cause\r\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in\r\nmountainous areas.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 29.2N 112.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 31.7N 111.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 34.6N 109.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP162015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162015\r\n300 PM MDT MON SEP 21 2015\r\n\r\nSurface observations and conventional satellite imagery indicate\r\nthat the surface circulation of Sixteen-E has dissipated.\r\nTherefore, this will be the last advisory on this system from the\r\nNational Hurricane Center.  Although the depression has dissipated,\r\ndynamical guidance show the system's remnants moving\r\nnorth-northeastward into the southwestern U.S. during the next day\r\nor so and will continue to be a heavy rainfall and flash flooding\r\nevent.\r\n\r\nBecause the remnants of Sixteen-E continue to represent a\r\nsignificant rainfall threat, the NOAA Weather Prediction Center will\r\nissue public advisories while that threat exists, beginning at 8\r\np.m. PDT under AWIPS header TCPEP1 and WMO header WTPZ31 KWNH and on\r\nthe web at http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 30.7N 111.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E\r\n 12H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery suggests that the area of low pressure several\r\nhundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, has developed a well-\r\ndefined circulation and has enough organized deep convection to\r\nbe declared a tropical depression.  The initial wind speed is set to\r\n30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes suggest an initial motion of 345/03, but it would not\r\nbe surprising if the motion were actually even more northerly. A\r\nslow northward motion is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours as\r\nthe depression rounds the western side of a weak mid-level ridge\r\nalong 95W.  In about 36 h, the cyclone should encounter the\r\nincreasing westerly or west-southwesterly flow around a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and turn\r\nnortheastward, a motion that could bring the cyclone's center inland\r\nas predicted by the GFS and HWRF in 72 to 84 hours.  An alternative\r\nscenario, supported by the ECMWF, is for the shear to become\r\nprohibitively high just after 72 hours and result in a decoupling\r\nof the cyclone. The shallow remnant circulation would then likely\r\ndrift west-northwestward in the low-level flow away from the coast.\r\nThe official track forecast brings the center close to the coast in\r\n72 hours but does not explicitly show a landfall.  The overall track\r\nforecast is weighted more heavily toward the ECMWF solution which\r\nseems to have a better handle on the depression's initial motion.\r\n\r\nAlthough the waters are plenty warm and the atmospheric moisture\r\nhigh, westerly shear associated with the mid- to upper-level trough\r\nover the Gulf of Mexico is expected to be an increasingly important\r\nfactor in the cyclone's intensification.  The shear should not be\r\nhigh enough initially to prevent a climatological rate of\r\ndevelopment during the next day or so.  However, global models show\r\nat least 20 kt of shear in 36-48 hours, which makes significant\r\nintensification less likely after that time.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is between the statistical and dynamical guidance through\r\n72 h and above the multi-model consensus.  Rapid weakening is\r\nforecast after that time, either as a result of the cyclone's moving\r\ninland or the possible decoupling of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 13.3N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 14.0N 103.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 14.7N 103.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 15.4N 102.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 15.9N 102.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 16.6N 101.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 17.1N 102.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 17.2N 102.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has become better organized during the past several\r\nhours with a large burst of convection recently trying to form a\r\ncentral dense overcast.  In addition, the latest microwave images\r\nshow some structure to the inner core, along with more pronounced\r\nbanding features south of the center.  On the basis of the increased\r\norganization and the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, the initial\r\nwind speed is set to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nMarty is now moving northward at about 4 kt.  A turn to the\r\nnorth-northeast is forecast on Sunday due to the storm moving around\r\nthe western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the far eastern\r\nPacific west of Central America.  While Marty will get close to\r\nbeing caught by a trough over Mexico, most of the guidance suggest\r\nthat the cyclone will be left behind in a couple of days southwest\r\nof the coast of Mexico due to the trough moving away.  Marty would\r\nthen drift west-northwestward in the low-level flow as a weaker\r\ncyclone. The NHC forecast has shifted eastward in the first couple\r\nof days, then westward at longer range with more model guidance\r\nshowing the solution where the cyclone is left behind.  This is an\r\nuncertain forecast, however, and it wouldn't take much of a\r\ndeviation for stronger winds to approach the coast.  A tropical\r\nstorm watch could be issued for a portion of the coast of Mexico on\r\nSunday morning.\r\n\r\nMarty is currently in an environment of light wind shear, high mid-\r\nlevel moisture and very warm waters.  These favorable conditions\r\nshould last for the next 24-36 hours and promote intensification\r\nduring that time.  While none of the deterministic guidance shows\r\nrapid intensification, the SHIPS-RI index shows about a 70 percent\r\nchance of a 25-kt increase in the first 24 hours.  The intensity\r\nforecast is set at the upper end of the guidance, about 5 kt above\r\nthe previous prediction through 36 hours.  After that time, almost\r\nall of the global models show a significant increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear, which should cause Marty to weaken and probably\r\ndissipate by day 5.  The official forecast is very close to the\r\nprevious one and the intensity consensus after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 13.6N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 14.2N 102.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 14.9N 102.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 15.4N 102.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 15.8N 102.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 16.2N 102.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 16.5N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nASCAT data from a few hours ago indicate that Marty's maximum winds\r\nhave increased to 45 kt.  The center is embedded beneath a\r\npersistent burst of deep convection, and strong convective bands\r\ntrail to the south and southwest of the central dense overcast.\r\nThe structure suggests there could be a little bit of westerly\r\nshear, which UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS diagnostics are showing to be\r\nabout 10-15 kt.\r\n\r\nMarty is over sea surface temperatures of at least 30 degrees\r\nCelsius, and the vertical shear is expected to be steady for the\r\nnext 24 hours or so.  These conditions should allow the cyclone to\r\ncontinue strengthening, and in fact, rapid intensification is a\r\npossibility.  The SHIPS RI guidance is showing a 64 percent chance\r\nof a 25-kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours, and the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM models bring Marty at or just below hurricane\r\nintensity at that time.  The dynamical models are a little bit\r\nless aggressive with the future intensity, but given that Marty is\r\nalready a little stronger from the get-go, the more aggressive\r\nstatistical guidance seems to be the more likely scenario.\r\nVertical shear is expected to increase by 36 hours, which is\r\nexpected to lead to a quick weakening trend during the latter part\r\nof the forecast period.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is\r\nadjusted upward a bit through 48 hours to account for the higher\r\ninitial intensity and the latest guidance, and is actually very\r\nsimilar to the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nMarty is located to the west of a mid-level ridge which extends\r\nacross Central America, and to the south of a deep-layer trough\r\nlocated over Mexico and the southern United States.  This pattern\r\nis steering the cyclone northward, or 360/5 kt.  Marty should turn\r\nnortheastward but slow down during the next 48 hours as the\r\nsteering currents weaken.  After the vertical shear increases,\r\npossibly displacing the deep convection away from the center, the\r\ncirculation is expected to stall and then turn westward between\r\ndays 3 through 5, keeping the center just offshore of the coast of\r\nMexico.  The GFS and the NAVGEM are the only models that bring\r\nMarty inland over Mexico, but these solutions do not appear likely\r\nat this time, especially since even the GFS ensemble mean stays\r\noffshore.  Despite these model differences, no significant changes\r\nwere required to the NHC track forecast from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 14.3N 103.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 15.0N 102.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 15.6N 102.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 16.0N 102.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 16.2N 101.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 16.5N 101.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 17.0N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 16.5N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nFirst-light visible imagery shows that Marty has developed a\r\ncentral dense overcast with a large outer convective band in the\r\neastern semicircle.  A recent SSM/IS overpass showed a well-defined\r\nconvective band, but did not show an eye or eyewall underneath the\r\novercast.  Various subjective and objective satellite intensity\r\nestimates range from 35 kt to 65 kt, so the initial intensity is\r\nraised to 50 kt as a compromise.  The cirrus outflow is good to the\r\neast but non-existent to the west, likely due to the the effects of\r\n20 kt of westerly vertical shear.\r\n\r\nMarty remains in a moist airmass and over sea surface temperatures\r\nof near 30C.  However, all of the dynamical guidance suggests the\r\ncyclone should experience increasing shear during the next 72\r\nhours. The guidance is in agreement that Marty should strengthen\r\nfor another 24 hours or so, followed by significant weakening.\r\nBased on this, the new intensity forecast is an update of the\r\nprevious forecast.  However, it should be noted that this is a low\r\nconfidence forecast due to uncertainty over how much land\r\ninteraction may occur as Marty approaches the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 015/6.  Marty is located to the west of a\r\nmid-level ridge which extends across Central America, and to the\r\nsouth of a deep-layer trough located over Mexico and the southern\r\nUnited States.  The cyclone should turn northeastward at a slower\r\nforward speed during the next 24-48 hours based on the consensus of\r\nthe track guidance.  After that time, there is some divergence in\r\nthe guidance.  The GFS moves Marty northeastward over Mexico.  On\r\nthe other hand, the ECMWF and UKMET forecast Marty to shear apart,\r\nwith the low-level center turning westward and remaining offshore.\r\nBased on the guidance and the current trends, the new track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous forecast in that it keeps Marty\r\noffshore through the forecast period.  However, it is shifted\r\ncloser to the coast than the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm warning may be required for portions of the coast\r\nof Mexico later today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 14.9N 102.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 15.4N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 16.0N 102.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 16.3N 101.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 16.7N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 17.0N 102.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 17.5N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 17.0N 104.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nVisible imagery shows that Marty has lost organization during the\r\npast several hours due to 20-25 kt of westerly shear.  The low-level\r\ncenter is now partly exposed to the southwest of the convection, and\r\nthe thunderstorm activity has decreased in both coverage and\r\nintensity. A partial ASCAT-B overpass showed winds near 50 kt just\r\nnorthwest of the center, and based on this the initial intensity\r\nremains 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 005/3.  Marty is located\r\nto the west of a mid-level ridge which extends across Central\r\nAmerica, and to the south of a deep-layer trough located over Mexico\r\nand the southern United States.  The track guidance continues to\r\nforecast a slow northeastward motion during the next 36 hours or so.\r\nAfter that, there continues to be divergence in the guidance. The\r\nGFS, Canadian, and NAVGEM models forecast Marty to move inland over\r\nMexico, while the UKMET and ECMWF show the system shearing apart,\r\nwith the low-level center turning westward.  The track forecast\r\nfavors the latter scenario and shows Marty making a westward turn\r\nand staying offshore.  The new forecast track is again similar to\r\nthe previous advisory.\r\n\r\nMarty remains in a moist airmass and over sea surface temperatures\r\nof near 30C.  However, all of the dynamical guidance suggests the\r\ncyclone should experience significant shear during the next 72\r\nhours.  While several of the dynamical models still call for Marty\r\nto become a hurricane, the SHIPS and LGEM models now forecast a peak\r\nintensity of about 55 kt.  Given that the guidance and the current\r\ntrends, the intensity forecast is lowered from the previous forecast\r\nand no longer calls for Marty to become a hurricane.  From 36-72\r\nhours, all of the guidance forecast weakening, and the new forecast\r\nfollows suit in calling for Marty to become a depression by 72 hours\r\nand a remnant low by 120 hours.  The remnant low forecast is\r\nsomewhat uncertain, as there is a chance that the shear may decrease\r\nby 120 hours.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm warning may still be required for portions of the\r\ncoast of Mexico later tonight.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 15.1N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 15.6N 102.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 16.1N 102.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 16.5N 101.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 16.9N 101.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 17.0N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 17.0N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 17.5N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015\r\n\r\nRecent infrared and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a\r\nstrong burst of deep convection has developed in the northwestern\r\nquadrant of the circulation, with very cold cloud tops having spread\r\nsouthwestward over the previously exposed low-level circulation\r\ncenter.  This increase in Marty's cloud pattern suggests that the\r\ncyclone has strengthened despite moderate to strong westerly\r\nvertical wind shear. The initial intensity has been increased to 55\r\nkt based on a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from\r\nboth TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is an uncertain 360/02 kt. Overall, Marty doesn't\r\nappear to have moved much, if at all, since the previous advisory.\r\nSteering currents are weak since the cyclone is embedded in the base\r\nof a broad deep-layer trough that extends from the Texas coast\r\nsouthward across central Mexico and into the eastern North Pacific.\r\nOnly a slow north or northeastward drift if expected for the next\r\ntwo days. The high terrain of southern Mexico is likely helping to\r\ninduce a narrow ridge just offshore the Pacific coast, which should\r\nprevent the cyclone from gaining much latitude. The global and\r\nregional models, excluding the GFS model, maintain some degree of\r\nlow- to mid-level ridging throughout the forecast period, which\r\ngradually forces Marty on a westward track over water after 48\r\nhours. In contrast, the GFS model marches the cyclone inland over\r\nMexico in about 48 hours, but this is considered to be an outlier\r\nscenario since the GFS-Ensemble Mean keeps Marty well offshore\r\nsimilar to the ECMWF and the other model solutions. The official\r\nforecast track is essentially just an update of the previous track\r\nthrough 72 hours, and then is a little slower than the previous\r\nadvisory after that as per the latest TVCE consensus model solution.\r\n\r\nThe overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding Marty\r\nare expected to essentially remain unchanged for the next 24 hours\r\nor so. As a result, little change in intensity is expected during\r\nthat time. In the 36-48 hour time period, however, the global models\r\nare forecasting the vertical wind shear to back around to the\r\nsouthwest and increase to around 25 kt, which should induce steady\r\nweakening through at least 72 hours. By 96 hours, the shear is\r\nforecast to sharply decrease to around 10 kt or less, possibly\r\ngiving Marty a chance to re-strengthen on days 4 and 5 if a decent\r\nlow-level circulation still remains at that time. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory in\r\ncalling for Marty to become a depression by around 96 hours and a\r\nremnant low by 120 hours. However, the remnant low forecast is still\r\nsomewhat uncertain.\r\n\r\nGiven that Marty has slowed down considerably and is expected to\r\nmove somewhat little slower than indicated in the previous advisory,\r\na tropical storm warning is not necessary at this time. However, a\r\ntropical storm warning could be required for portions of the coast\r\nof Mexico by Monday morning.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 15.3N 103.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 15.7N 102.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 16.2N 102.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 16.6N 102.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 16.8N 102.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 16.9N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 17.0N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 17.2N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone is producing a large area of deep convection\r\nand cloud tops colder than -80 degrees Celsius.  Although the\r\nlow-level center is embedded within the cold cloud canopy, earlier\r\nmicrowave data showed that it was located slightly west of the\r\nconvection due to some westerly shear.  Subjective and objective\r\nT-numbers are between 3.5 and 4.0 on the Dvorak scale, so the\r\ninitial wind speed has been increased to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nBased on the recent satellite and microwave fixes the initial\r\nmotion is estimated to be 360/2 kt.  Marty remains in an area of\r\nweak steering currents, as the tropical cyclone is embedded within\r\nthe base of a mid- to upper-level trough that extends southwestward\r\nfrom the eastern Texas coast.  The tropical storm is forecast to\r\ndrift northward or northeastward during the next day or so.  The\r\nmodel guidance is in disagreement on how close Marty will get to the\r\ncoast of Mexico during the next 36-48 hours.  The GFS continues to\r\ntake Marty inland, while the GFS ensemble mean and the ECMWF show\r\nless of a northeastward motion and keep the tropical cyclone\r\noffshore.  The latest runs of the GFDL and HWRF have trended\r\neastward and both models show landfall in a couple of days.  The NHC\r\ntrack will remain between these various solutions, close to the GFS\r\nensemble mean and the Florida State Superensemble during the first\r\n36 to 48 hours.  After that time, the upper-level trough is forecast\r\nto lift northeastward, while a ridge builds over northwestern\r\nMexico. This should cause Marty to move westward or west-\r\nnorthwestward between 72 and 120 hours.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is expected to remain in an environment of\r\nmoderate westerly shear during the next 12-24 hours, and little\r\nchange in strength is expected in the short term.  Increasing\r\nvertical shear and potentially cooler SSTs due to upwelling are\r\nexpected to cause a gradual decrease in strength beginning on\r\nTuesday.  Weakening should then continue throughout the remainder of\r\nthe forecast period while Marty remains in an area of moderate to\r\nstrong southwesterly shear.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little\r\nbelow the statistical guidance during the first 24 hours, but\r\nfollows a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models during the remainder of\r\nthe period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 15.6N 103.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 16.0N 102.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 16.3N 102.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 16.6N 102.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 16.9N 102.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 17.0N 103.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 17.0N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 17.5N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nMarty continues to produce a large area of deep convection,\r\nalthough the overall convective appearance is a little stretched.\r\nMicrowave data show that, while the center is embedded within the\r\nconvection, the southwesterly portion of the circulation is\r\npartially exposed due to the southwesterly shear.  The initial wind\r\nspeed remains 60 kt, a blend of the TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates.\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the\r\narea for the afternoon advisory to get a better estimate of the\r\nwinds.\r\n\r\nThe storm is drifting northward, caught in an area of weak steering\r\ncurrents while embedded within the base of a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough that extends southwestward from the eastern Texas coast.  The\r\ntropical storm is forecast to drift northeastward during the next\r\nday or so, but the model guidance remains in disagreement on how\r\nclose Marty will get to the coast of Mexico during the next 36-48\r\nhours.  The GFS and HWRF take Marty inland, while the GFS and ECMWF\r\nensemble means keep the tropical cyclone farther offshore. Usually\r\nwith such different guidance from reasonable models it makes good\r\nsense to stay close to the model consensus, which results in little\r\nnet change to the NHC forecast during the first 36 to 48 hours.\r\nAfter that time, the mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to lift\r\nnortheastward, while a ridge builds over northwestern Mexico. This\r\nshould cause Marty to move westward or west-northwestward between\r\n72 and 120 hours, and the official forecast is a little farther\r\nwestward at those times.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is expected with Marty over the next day\r\nor so while the storm remains in an environment of moderate\r\nwest-southwesterly shear.  Increasing vertical shear and potentially\r\ncooler SSTs due to upwelling are expected to cause a gradual\r\nweakening to begin on Tuesday.  This trend should then continue\r\nthroughout the remainder of the forecast period while Marty remains\r\nin an area of moderate-to-strong southwesterly shear.  Most of the\r\nguidance, except the ECMWF, shows the cyclone dissipating by day\r\n5 due to the persistent shear.  The latest NHC forecast is a blend\r\nof the previous one and the intensity consensus, although I\r\nconsider it more uncertain than normal at long range due to the\r\ntrack uncertainities.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 16.1N 103.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 16.3N 102.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 16.6N 102.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 16.8N 102.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 17.0N 102.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 17.3N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 17.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 18.0N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data was very helpful with both\r\nthe positioning and intensity of Marty this afternoon.  The data\r\nshow that Marty has become a hurricane, with SFMR winds of 70 kt\r\nobserved, which will be used as the initial wind speed.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft fix position was about 30 n mi to the northeast of my\r\nprevious estimate.  Consequently, based on the aircraft fix data and\r\na longer-term motion -- Marty appears to be moving northeastward at\r\nabout 5 kt.  Guidance has all shifted northeastward, with the\r\nhurricane likely to move very near the coast of Mexico on Tuesday,\r\nand a number of models move the cyclone inland.  While the consensus\r\nis still offshore, the official forecast follows the trend of the\r\nguidance by bringing Marty within 20 n mi of the coast. This change\r\nnecessitates a Hurricane Warning for the coast of south-central\r\nMexico.  If the cyclone survives land interaction with the high\r\nterrain, a ridge is forecast to build over Mexico, which should\r\ncause Marty to move westward or west-northwestward after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nIncreasing vertical wind shear is expected to cause a gradual\r\nweakening of Marty by Tuesday. This trend should then continue\r\nthroughout the remainder of the forecast period while Marty remains\r\nin an area of moderate or strong southwesterly shear, and\r\npotentially interacts with land.  Most of the guidance, except the\r\nECMWF, continues to shows the cyclone dissipating by day 5 due to\r\nthe strong shear. The forecast intensity is raised in the short term\r\ndue to the initial increase in wind speed, then is blended with the\r\nintensity consensus at long range.  It is possible that Marty could\r\nweaken a lot faster than shown below if it gets closer to Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 16.7N 102.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 16.8N 101.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 17.3N 101.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 17.5N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 17.8N 105.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 18.0N 106.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Marty","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 PM CDT MON SEP 28 2015\r\n\r\nMarty's convective cloud pattern has been steadily shrinking over\r\nthe past few hours, accompanied by a sharp decrease in cloud top\r\ntemperatures. In addition, a 29/0002 UTC AMSU overpass indicates\r\nthat the low-level and mid-/upper-level circulations are starting to\r\ndecouple, with the low-level center lagging back to the west as a\r\nresult of strong westerly vertical wind shear impinging on the small\r\nhurricane. The initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based on\r\na blend of satellite intensity estimates of T4.0/65 from TAFB and\r\nT3.5/55 kt from SAB, and a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T4.0.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data over the past few hours indicate that Marty has\r\nslowed and turned toward the east-northeast, and is now moving\r\n070/03 kt. There remains a distinct bifurcation in the model\r\nguidance with the GFS, HRWF, UKMET, NAVGEM, moving a stronger Marty\r\nsteadily east-northeastward and inland over Mexico in 24-36 hours,\r\nwhereas the ECMWF, GFS-Ensemble Mean, GFDL, and GFDN models keep a\r\nweaker Marty offshore before turning it westward at around 48 hours.\r\nGiven the recent sharp downward trend in the convective structure of\r\nMarty, along with an expected increase in the deep-layer vertical\r\nwind shear to 25-30 kt by 18-24 hours, the official forecast leans\r\ntoward the weaker and more westward model solutions, which is\r\nconsistent with the previous advisory and the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nWith vertical shear values of 30 kt or greater expected in the\r\n12-36 hour period, steady weakening appears likely during that\r\ntime period. After that time, additional weakening is likely due to\r\nthe expected shallow vortex having a difficult time regenerating and\r\nmaintaining deep convection within a progressively drier mid-level\r\nenvironment. Proximity to the mountainous landmass of south-central\r\nMexico could also provide a potential weakening factor. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast follows the weakening trend of the previous\r\nadvisory, and lies close to the IVCN intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 16.7N 102.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 16.8N 101.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 16.9N 101.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.2N 101.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 17.4N 102.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 17.6N 103.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 18.0N 106.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows a rapid decay of the deep\r\nconvection overnight, and that convection is now separated to the\r\neast of the partially exposed surface circulation center. The 20-30\r\nkt of westerly shear indicated on the UW-CIMSS analysis is\r\ndrastically affecting the vertical structure of the cyclone as well,\r\nas seen in microwave imagery. As a result, the initial intensity is\r\ndecreased to 55 kt based on a compromise of the subjective and\r\nobjective satellite intensity estimates.  Strong, persistent,\r\nvertical shear and possibly upwelling of cooler waters should cause\r\nthe cyclone to quickly weaken to a depression in 36 hours, and\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low in 2 days. With the exception of the\r\nECMWF and UKMET models, which show the cyclone lingering as a\r\nremnant low beyond day 4, all of the other large- scale models, and\r\nthe statistical-dynamical guidance, show dissipation in 4 days or\r\nless. The NHC forecast follows the latter scenario, and also shows\r\nthe cyclone weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours.\r\n\r\nMarty has been moving a bit erratically during the past 6 hours, and\r\nthe best motion estimate is a temporary drift toward the east.\r\nDeterministic and ensemble guidance indicate that this motion,\r\nwithin the weak steering flow produced by a mid-level trough to the\r\nnorthwest of the cyclone, should continue through today.  Afterward,\r\nMarty is expected to turn back toward the northwest and west-\r\nnorthwest as a shallow, weaker cyclone, during the next 36 hours as\r\na low to mid-level high pressure ridge builds over southern Mexico.\r\nThe official forecast is weighted heavily on the TVCX multi-model\r\nconsensus and is a little bit faster and to the south of the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 16.4N 101.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 16.5N 101.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 16.7N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 16.9N 102.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 17.2N 103.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 17.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and data from the Mexican radar at Acapulco\r\nindicate that Marty continues to lose organization due to the\r\neffects of 30 kt of westerly shear.  The convection is occurring in\r\nepisodic bursts, and the low-level center is located near the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the bursts.  The initial intensity is decreased\r\nto 50 kt based on 1200 UTC satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB and the subsequent decay in the cloud pattern.\r\n\r\nMarty continues to drift erratically with the initial motion now\r\n120/3.  The mid- to upper-level trough north of the system is\r\nstarting to weaken and split, with an upper-level low developing\r\nnorthwest of Marty and a mid-level ridge developing north of the\r\nstorm.  This evolution should result in Marty beginning a west-\r\nnorthwestward to westward motion during the next 24-48 hours, and\r\nall the guidance that does not quickly dissipate the cyclone\r\nsupports this scenario.  The new forecast track is a little south of\r\nthe previous track based on the initial position, and it is also\r\nfaster in moving Marty westward.  However, it is slower than the\r\nmodel consensus.  On the new forecast track, it is less likely that\r\nthe center of Marty will make landfall on the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast the current shear to continue for the\r\nnext 36-48 hours, which should cause Marty to steadily, if not\r\nrapidly, weaken.  The new intensity forecast, which is in best\r\nagreement with the LGEM model, is an update of the previous forecast\r\nin calling for Marty to weaken to a tropical depression in 24-36\r\nhours and then degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours.  It\r\nshould be noted that this forecast lies on the upper edge of the\r\nintensity guidance envelope, so Marty could weaken faster than\r\ncurrently forecast.  One extra day has been added to the remnant low\r\nphase based on the forecasts from the ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 16.2N 101.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 16.4N 101.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 16.6N 102.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 16.8N 103.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 16.9N 104.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 17.0N 106.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 17.0N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nAnalyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin show that the\r\nwesterly shear over Marty has increased to 35 kt, which is\r\ndisrupting the structure of the cyclone.  Satellite imagery and\r\ndata from the Mexican radar at Acapulco indicate a new burst of\r\nconvection in curved bands has developed to the northeast of the\r\ncenter. However, so far this burst is smaller than the previous\r\none.  The initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt in agreement\r\nwith satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nAfter moving a little to the east earlier today, the latest\r\nsatellite and radar data suggest that the center is now drifting\r\nnorthward with an initial motion of 000/2.  The mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough north of the system is weakening and splitting, with an\r\nupper-level low developing northwest of Marty and a mid-level ridge\r\ndeveloping north of the storm.  This evolution should result in\r\nMarty beginning a west-northwestward to westward motion during the\r\nnext 12-24 hours, and all of the track guidance supports this\r\nscenario.  The new forecast track is similar to, but faster than the\r\nprevious track.  However, it is again slower than the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nContinued moderate to strong shear should cause maintain steady to\r\nrapid weakening.  The new intensity forecast, which is in best\r\nagreement with the LGEM model, is an update of the previous forecast\r\nand calls for Marty to weaken to a tropical depression in 24 hours\r\nand then degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours.  It should be\r\nnoted that this forecast again lies on the upper edge of the\r\nintensity guidance envelope, so Marty could weaken faster than\r\ncurrently forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 16.3N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 16.4N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 16.6N 102.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 16.7N 103.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 16.8N 104.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 17.0N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 17.5N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Marty","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015\r\n\r\nAfter an unusually long convective burst that began around 1800 UTC,\r\nthe convective pattern of Marty has deteriorated significantly over\r\nthe past couple of hours. However, a 2306 UTC GPM microwave overpass\r\nindicated that Marty still had a 60-70 percent closed low-level eye\r\nwith a diameter of 15 n mi. Based on the partial eye feature and a\r\nDvorak classification of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB, the initial\r\nintensity is being maintained at 45 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite images indicate that Marty has essentially been\r\nstationary since the previous advisory. However, as Marty's\r\nlow-level and mid-/upper-level circulations begin to decouple during\r\nthe next 12 hours or so due to increasing vertical wind shear, the\r\ncyclone is forecast to begin moving slowly westward tonight and on\r\nWednesday under the influence of a weak low- to mid-level ridge\r\nlocated over central Mexico. Although the spread in the track\r\nguidance is fairly large, the models are in generally good agreement\r\non a slow westward to west-northwestward motion throughout the\r\nforecast period. As a result, the official forecast track is similar\r\nto the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus\r\nmodels TVCE and GFEX.\r\n\r\nDespite strong shear conditions, the recent convective burst has\r\nbeen sustained by strong upper-level difluence created by\r\nsouthwesterly flow over the northwestern portion of the Marty's\r\ncirculation and westerly flow over the southeastern portion of the\r\ncirculation. However, this favorable upper-level pattern is expected\r\nto abate during the next 12 hours and be replaced by strong\r\nsouthwesterly unidirectional flow, which should create very\r\nunfavorable shear conditions across the cyclone. The result is that\r\nMarty should steadily or even rapidly weaken, becoming a tropical\r\ndepression in about 24 hours, followed by degeneration into a\r\nremnant low by 36-48 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows the\r\nweakening trend of the previous intensity forecast, and remains in\r\nagreement with the LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 16.3N 101.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 16.4N 101.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 16.6N 102.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 16.7N 104.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 16.8N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 18.5N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT pass several hours ago still indicated a few vectors with\r\ntropical storm force winds, but since that time, the cloud\r\npattern has rapidly degenerated into a swirl of low clouds. Most of\r\nthe associated convection has moved to the northeast over Mexico.\r\nOn this basis, the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt.\r\nStrong shear is forecast to continue over the cyclone, and the\r\nintensity guidance calls for weakening and so does the NHC forecast.\r\nThe depression is expected to become a remnant low later today or\r\nearly Thursday, but could still produce intermittent bursts of\r\nconvection.\r\n\r\nThe swirl of low clouds associated with the center has been moving\r\ntoward the west or 270 degrees at about 4 kt. Most of the models\r\nforecast a low or a trough moving westward away from the coast of\r\nMexico. This is the option indicated in the NHC forecast since the\r\ncyclone has become a shallow system and will be steered westward by\r\nthe low-level flow for the next few days.\r\n\r\nSince the cyclone has weakened and is moving away from the coast,\r\nthe government of Mexico has discontinued the watches and warnings.\r\nHowever, very heavy rainfall associated with this system will\r\ncontinue to affect portions of the state of Guerrero.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 16.1N 102.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 16.2N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 16.2N 103.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 16.2N 105.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 16.2N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 17.5N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1000 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nVisible and infrared imagery shows the exposed and small low-\r\nlevel circulation of Marty with a slight burst of deep convection\r\nalong the northern side of the center.  The current intensity\r\nis estimated to be 30 kt based mainly on continuity from the\r\nprevious advisory.  Nearly 20 kt of southwesterly vertical shear,\r\nassociated with an upper-level low near 19N 109W, is currently\r\naffecting Marty.  Global models forecast at least moderate\r\nsouthwesterly shear to continue over the cyclone for the next few\r\ndays.  Therefore, the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow within the next 24 hours, and to dissipate a couple of days\r\nlater.  The official intensity forecast is close to the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe depression continues to move slowly westward, or 275/5 kt.\r\nMost of the model guidance shows the cyclone continuing to move\r\nwestward for the next few days.  A breakdown of the mid-level\r\nridging over Baja California and northwestern Mexico should allow\r\nfor a more northward component of motion by 72 hours, if the system\r\nstill exists by that time.\r\n\r\nSince the deep convection over land has diminished, expected\r\nrainfall amounts have been decreased.  Also, since the cyclone is\r\nweakening, the swell and high surf threats should decrease over the\r\nnext day or two.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 16.2N 102.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 16.3N 103.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 16.4N 104.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 16.5N 105.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 16.6N 106.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 17.3N 109.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Gallina\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n400 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nMarty continues to produce minor, sporadic, bursts of deep\r\nconvection.  Data from a 1605Z ASCAT pass showed that the maximum\r\nwinds have decreased to near 25 kt over a small area of the\r\nnorthern semicircle.  Marty is now forecast to degenerate into a\r\nremnant low in 12 hours and the low is expected to dissipate a\r\ncouple of days thereafter.  However, the scatterometer data\r\nsuggested that the circulation was already becoming elongated and\r\nnearly open over the southwestern quadrant.  If this trend\r\ncontinues, the system could lose its identity as a surface cyclone\r\nsooner than indicated in this forecast.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the latest SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe slow westward motion of around 275/5 kt continues.  A\r\nmid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should push Marty westward,\r\nwith slight increase in forward speed, for the next couple of days\r\nbefore the circulation dissipates.  The official track forecast is\r\nroughly in the middle of the dynamical model guidance suite.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 16.3N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 16.4N 103.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 16.6N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 16.9N 106.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 17.2N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Gallina\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Marty","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n1000 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective organization has continued to deteriorate, but it\r\nhasn't quite reached the point for the system to be declared a\r\nremnant low pressure system. However, the current ragged appearance\r\nof the shallow convection coupled with west-southwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear of at least 20 kt should cause the depression to\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low within the next 6 to 12 hours. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and\r\nthe latest SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nMarty still possesses a fairly tight low-level circulation as noted\r\nin the last few visible satellite images and a 2132 UTC SSMI\r\nmicrowave image, which has made the system fairly easy to locate.\r\nAs a result, the initial motion is now 285/07 kt. A mid-level ridge\r\nlocated over northwestern and central Mexico is expected to force\r\nMarty on a west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple\r\nof days until the shallow cyclone dissipates by 72 hours. The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is essentially just an update of the previous track\r\nand lies close to the consensus model TCVE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 16.6N 103.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 16.7N 104.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 17.0N 106.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 17.2N 107.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 17.5N 109.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Marty","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP172015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172015\r\n400 AM CDT THU OCT 01 2015\r\n\r\nMost of the deep convection associated with Marty has dissipated,\r\nand a partial ASCAT pass suggests that the the low-level swirl is\r\nlosing definition or degenerating into a trough. Given that strong\r\nshear is forecast to continue, no regeneration is anticipated.\r\n\r\nThe remnant low is expected to move toward the west or west-\r\nnorthwest at about 5 to 10 kt steered by the low-level flow until\r\ndissipation in a day or so. For additional information on the\r\nremnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National\r\nWeather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01\r\nKWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 16.7N 104.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 17.0N 105.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 17.5N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP182015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the far\r\nsouthwestern portion of the eastern Pacific has become better\r\norganized.  Curved banding features have increased, along with a\r\ngrowing area of deep convection near the center.  Thus the system\r\nis declared a tropical depression, the 18th of the season. The\r\ninitial wind speed is set to 30 kt using the Dvorak estimate\r\nfrom TAFB.  The minimum pressure is 1008 mb on the basis of buoy\r\n43535 near the depression, which reported 1009 mb a couple of hours\r\nago.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is expected to be in a favorable environment for\r\nstrengthening for the next few days, with low wind shear, very warm\r\nwaters and high mid-level moisture.  Thus steady intensification is\r\nforecast until early next week.  Thereafter, an increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear and some cooler waters should cause the cyclone\r\nto weaken some by day 5.  The official intensity prediction is on\r\nthe high side of the intensity guidance, a reflection of both the\r\nconducive environment and the low bias of the guidance during this\r\nseason. It would not be surprising if the cyclone intensified more\r\nthan shown here given the large-scale environment, but timing this\r\nis not possible at this time.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 12 kt.  This general\r\nmotion is expected for the next 2-3 days while it remains under the\r\ninfluence of the subtropical ridge located over the eastern and\r\ncentral Pacific.  This pattern is expected to change quickly after\r\nday 3 when a mid-latitude trough erodes the ridge, causing the\r\ncyclone to recurve well east of the Hawaiian Islands.  For a first\r\nforecast, the guidance is in rather good agreement, and the\r\nofficial forecast is close to the overall consensus, with a bit more\r\nweight on the ECMWF model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 11.1N 132.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 11.3N 133.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 11.7N 136.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 12.0N 138.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 12.2N 140.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 12.8N 143.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 14.5N 145.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 17.0N 144.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP182015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression has not changed much since the previous advisory. The\r\nassociated deep convection is organized in a curved band to the\r\nnorth and west of the center with a more linear swath of clouds a\r\ncouple of hundred n mi to the northeast of the center.  The Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT remain 2.0/30 kt,\r\nand a recent ASCAT pass also showed winds around that value.  Based\r\non these data, the initial wind speed remains 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 14 kt steered by a\r\nsubtropical ridge to its north.  This general heading with a\r\ndecrease in forward speed is expected during the next 2-3 days while\r\nthe ridge weakens.  After that time, a turn toward the north and\r\nthen northeast is predicted when the system becomes embedded in the\r\nflow ahead of a large trough.  The official track forecast is a\r\nlittle to the south of the previous one in the short term, mainly\r\ndue to the more southward initial motion, and then slightly to the\r\neast of the previous track to come into better agreement with the\r\nlatest models.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions are expected to be conducive for\r\nstrengthening during the next few days, and accordingly most of the\r\nguidance shows the cyclone intensifying.  The SHIPS model shows the\r\nshear increasing in 4 to 5 days, and that, along with more stable\r\nair and decreasing SSTs, should end the strengthening trend and\r\ninduce weakening.  The official intensity forecast is unchanged from\r\nthe previous one, and remains near the high end of the guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 10.9N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 11.1N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 11.4N 137.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 11.6N 140.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 11.8N 141.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 12.5N 144.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 14.3N 144.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 17.3N 143.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP182015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 09 2015\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased a little since the last advisory,\r\nwith the center located on the southeastern edge of the convective\r\nmass due to light/moderate southeasterly shear over the cyclone.\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB, marking the formation of\r\nTropical Storm Nora, the 14th tropical storm of the eastern North\r\nPacific season.  Environmental conditions appear favorable for\r\ncontinued steady strengthening for the next 72 hours, with the\r\ncyclone moving over SSTs at or above 29C during that period and\r\nlight shear. By days 4 and 5 the SHIPS model and global model fields\r\nshow the shear increasing, which should result in weakening. The\r\nnew NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and is\r\nclose to or a little above the SHIPS model through the period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/14, as Nora is being steered\r\nquickly westward by a subtropical ridge to the north. A gradual\r\ndecrease in forward speed is forecast during the next 36 hours as\r\nthe ridge slowly weakens, and Nora should then turn west-\r\nnorthwestward as a weakness develops around 145W. Nora is then\r\nforecast to recurve between a deep-layer trough over the north-\r\ncentral Pacific and a strengthening ridge to the southeast by the\r\nend of the period. The track model guidance is in overall good\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the new NHC forecast is close to a\r\nblend of the GFS and ECMWF models through the period. The new\r\nofficial forecast is a little north of the previous one through 48\r\nhours, and then is a little to the left, showing a more gradual\r\nrecurvature following the latest trend in the guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 11.3N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 11.6N 137.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 11.8N 139.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 11.9N 141.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 12.3N 143.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 15.0N 145.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 18.5N 142.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP182015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182015\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015\r\n\r\nNora has changed little in organization during the past several\r\nhours.  The low-level center continues to be near the southeastern\r\nedge of the convection, and the strongest convection is currently\r\nin outer bands well northwest of the center. This is likely due to\r\nthe effects of light southeasterly vertical wind shear.  In\r\naddition, recent ASCAT data suggests the circulation is elongated\r\nnorth to south.  Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from both\r\nTAFB and SAB, and the ASCAT data also shows winds near 35 kt.  Based\r\non this, the advisory intensity remains 35 kt.\r\n\r\nNora is now moving 285/14, with the cyclone continuing to be steered\r\nby a deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north.  The dynamical\r\nmodels forecast the ridge to weaken during the next 36 hours, with\r\nNora moving generally westward with a decrease in forward speed.\r\nAfter that time, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northward\r\nand probably recurve as a deep-layer trough over the north Pacific\r\nbreaks the subtropical ridge.  The track guidance is tightly\r\nclustered for the first 36 hours, but subsequently there is an\r\nincreased spread on where and how fast Nora will recurve. The ECMWF\r\nshows a weaker Nora moving farther west and eventually turning\r\nnorthward along 149W by 120 hours.  The UKMET shows a stronger Nora\r\nmaking an earlier recurvature with the storm near 19N 138W by 120\r\nhours.  The GFS lies between these models and is near the center of\r\nthe guidance envelope.  The new track forecast is a little north of\r\nthe previous forecast for the first 48 hours, and then it is a\r\nlittle west of the previous forecast after that time. The new track\r\nis near the center of the guidance envelope and lies a little west\r\nof the GFS after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nNora is expected to remain in an environment of light shear and\r\nwarm sea surface temperatures for the next 2-3 days, which should\r\nallow strengthening.  After that, the cyclone is expected to\r\nencounter unfavorable conditions of strong southwesterly shear and\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures.  Based on this, the new\r\nintensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in\r\ncalling to Nora to peak as a hurricane in about 72 hours and\r\nsubsequently weaken to a tropical storm by 120 hours.  The new\r\nforecast is in best agreement with the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 11.6N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 11.9N 138.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 12.1N 140.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 12.4N 142.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 12.7N 143.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 13.5N 145.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 16.0N 145.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 18.5N 142.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP182015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182015\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015\r\n\r\nThe satellite appearance of Nora has improved slightly during the\r\npast several hours with deeper convection near the center and\r\nincreased banding features in the northwestward quadrant.  The\r\ninitial intensity is raised to 40 kt as a compromise between the\r\nTAFB and SAB satellite estimates.\r\n\r\nFurther strengthening seems likely over the next couple of days\r\nwhile Nora remains in a low shear, warm water environment.  The\r\nmodels, however, generally show a lower peak intensity with Nora,\r\nperhaps due to drier air in the mid-levels, so the new forecast will\r\nreflect this trend.  The most notable change to the forecast\r\nis at day 3 and beyond when the global models are predicting the\r\nvertical wind shear to increase earlier and be much stronger than\r\npredicted yesterday for the cyclone. Intensity guidance is notably\r\nlower during that period, with only the GFDL showing hurricane\r\nstrength. The latest NHC prediction is similar to the previous one\r\nthrough 48 hours, then is reduced afterward by about 10 kt. That's\r\nabout the largest change I feel comfortable making at long range due\r\nto continuity concerns, but most of the historically reliable\r\nguidance is still below my new forecast.\r\n\r\nNora is moving westward at roughly 12 kt.  The cyclone should move\r\nto the west or west-northwest for the next couple of days while it\r\nis steered by a ridge over the east-central Pacific.  This\r\nridge is forecast to weaken during that time, which should result in\r\nNora slowing down and gradually gaining latitude.  A mid-latitude\r\ntrough should help the ridge break down in a few days and turn Nora\r\nnorthward, although there remains some spread in the guidance when\r\nNora will recurve. The GFS and HWRF models have joined the ECMWF\r\nmodel in predicting a weaker Nora, which results in a delayed\r\nnorthward turn. The official forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nthrough 72 hours, then is shifted westward at long range in\r\naccordance with the new guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 11.7N 137.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 11.9N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 12.1N 140.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 12.3N 142.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 12.6N 143.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 13.6N 145.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 15.9N 145.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 18.0N 144.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP182015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182015\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015\r\n\r\nNora is small tropical cyclone with an irregular central dense\r\novercast and some banding features especially northwest of the\r\ncenter. Microwave data show that the inner core has improved in\r\norganization, with a mostly closed ring noted in the 37 GHz\r\nchannel. With the increasing inner core structure, the initial wind\r\nspeed is raised to 45 kt, at the higher end of the estimates near\r\nthe Dvorak value from TAFB. The initial 34-kt wind radii were\r\nadjusted inward based on an ASCAT-A pass from 1826Z.\r\n\r\nOver the next couple of days, the environment near the storm is\r\nexpected to generally be favorable for strengthening, with very warm\r\nwaters and low shear anticipated.  However, some dry air aloft is\r\nexpected to temper the intensification, and only a gradual increase\r\nin wind speed is expected at this time.  Still, with the inner core\r\ngetting better organized, a faster rate of intensification is\r\npossible, with the SHIPS-RI index showing a 25 percent chance of a\r\n30-kt change over the next 24 hours.  The intensity forecast will\r\nremain close to the previous one in the first 48 hours, above most\r\nof the guidance and closest to the GFDL and Florida State\r\nSuperensemble models.  Global models are increasing the wind shear\r\nnear Nora quite a bit in a few days and keeping it high for the\r\nremainder of the period.  This will likely cause significant\r\nweakening, and the NHC prediction is decreased a little bit at long\r\nrange, and is below the model consensus.\r\n\r\nNora continues moving westward at roughly 12 kt.  There has been no\r\nchange to the synoptic pattern with a ridge expected to gradually\r\nweaken to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next couple of\r\ndays.  This pattern should result in Nora decelerating during that\r\ntime, while generally moving a little north of west.  Thereafter,\r\nthe storm is expected to encounter a weakness in the ridge while a\r\nmid-latitude trough digs north of Hawaii.  These features should\r\nturn Nora to the north and northeast, well east of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands.  Model guidance has shifted a bit to the south and west on\r\nthis model cycle, in better agreement overall on a later northward\r\nturn.  The NHC forecast is shifted westward through 96 hours to come\r\ninto better agreement with the consensus-based guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 11.8N 138.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 11.9N 140.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 12.0N 141.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 12.1N 143.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 12.3N 144.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 13.8N 146.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 16.0N 145.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake/Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nora","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP182015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182015\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015\r\n\r\nNora's satellite presentation continues to feature an irregular CDO\r\nwith little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity\r\nremains 45 kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak\r\nclassifications. ASCAT data received around the time of the last\r\nadvisory suggested that Nora is a very small tropical cyclone, with\r\ntropical storm force winds only extending outward up to 30 n mi in\r\nthe northern semicircle. An AMSR2 microwave image from the JAXA\r\nGCOM-W2 satellite around 22Z clearly showed the low-level center on\r\nthe southeastern edge of the deep convection, but convection has\r\nformed closer to the center since that time.\r\n\r\nThe near-storm environment should be favorable for some\r\nstrengthening in the next 48 hours or so, with warm waters and low\r\nvertical shear, but there is some mid-tropospheric dry air in the\r\nenvironment that could limit strengthening. After that time, the\r\nvertical shear begins to increase as the cyclone recurves, and\r\nsteady weakening is forecast to begin after 72 hours. The NHC\r\nforecast generally follows the trend of the previous one, but no\r\nlonger explicitly shows Nora reaching hurricane strength. However,\r\nthis is certainly still possible. The NHC prediction is close to the\r\nFSU Superensemble through 36 hours and near the intensity consensus\r\nafter that time.\r\n\r\nThe ASCAT data and microwave fixes indicated that the center of\r\nNora was located a little southwest of the position in the previous\r\nadvisory, but the initial motion remains westward at 12 kt. The\r\nsynoptic reasoning for the track forecast has not changed, as Nora\r\nwill be steered westward at a decreasing forward speed for the next\r\n36 to 48 hours by a weakening ridge to the north. After that time,\r\nNora should begin to recurve into a break in the ridge and then turn\r\nnortheastward by the end of the period under the influence of a\r\nlongwave trough over the north-central Pacific. The new NHC track\r\nforecast has been adjusted to the south and west of the previous one\r\nthrough 72 hours to account for the initial position and motion, and\r\nis near the previous official forecast track after that time. The\r\nNHC forecast lies between the latest ECMWF forecast and the TVCE\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nWith Nora moving into the central North Pacific basin, this will\r\nbe the last advisory from NHC. Future information on Nora can\r\nbe found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane\r\nCenter beginning at 1100 PM HST (0900Z).\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 11.7N 139.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 11.8N 141.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 11.9N 143.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 12.0N 144.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 12.2N 145.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 14.0N 146.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 16.0N 145.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 17.5N 144.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 14 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the low pressure system located about\r\n1000 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula has become better organized.  The cloud pattern\r\nconsists of a large curved band on its western side and a central\r\ndense overcast feature. In addition, a partial ASCAT pass from\r\nearlier today suggested that the center of circulation has become\r\nbetter defined. On this basis, this system is classified as a\r\ntropical depression, the nineteenth one of the 2015 eastern North\r\nPacific season.  The initial wind speed is set at 30 kt, following\r\na Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB and the earlier ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving just south of due west at about 16 kt\r\nsteered by a subtropical ridge to its north.  A general westward\r\nmotion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next\r\nfew days while the ridge remains in place but weakens.  After that\r\ntime, a turn to the northwest is predicted as the cyclone moves\r\ntoward a weakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough.  The model guidance is in fair agreement, and the official\r\ntrack forecast lies near the consensus aids.\r\n\r\nLow wind shear, warm water, and a fairly moist environment should\r\nallow the system to strengthen during the next several days.  The\r\nSHIPS and LGEM models show significant strengthening, bringing the\r\nsystem to hurricane strength within 48 hours with continued\r\nintensification thereafter.  The official forecast is less\r\naggressive than those models, but still does call for the depression\r\nto strengthen steadily for the next few days.  This forecast is\r\nbetween the dynamical and statistical guidance, and a little lower\r\nthan the intensity model consensus.  It is interesting to note that\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF models also show the system deepening\r\nsignificantly toward the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z  9.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z  9.7N 120.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z  9.5N 122.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z  9.5N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z  9.6N 126.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 10.0N 130.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 11.4N 132.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 13.5N 135.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the\r\npast several hours.  A large area of convection remains near the\r\ncenter, with some banding features noted in the northwestern\r\nquadrant.  The initial wind speed estimate remains 30 kt in\r\nagreement with the TAFB/SAB Dvorak values and ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale environment seems favorable for strengthening\r\nover the next several days with low wind shear, very warm water and\r\nmoist mid-level conditions likely in the cyclone's path.  Thus\r\nstrengthening is predicted, similar to the previous forecast, and\r\nthe official forecast is near the intensity consensus. Rapid\r\nintensification seems like a reasonable possibility in the next few\r\ndays if the cyclone develops an inner core, and a few models are\r\nshowing the cyclone as a major hurricane in the 3-5 day time frame.\r\nAlthough a hurricane that strong would be quite rare so far west in\r\nthe eastern Pacific in late October, this season's storms have\r\npeaked quite a bit farther west than typical, so this scenario\r\nshould be mentioned.\r\n\r\nA pair of ASCAT passes indicates that the center of the depression\r\nwas a bit farther north than geostationary satellite suggested,\r\nalthough the initial motion remains west, now at about 14 kt.\r\nThis general motion with a decrease in forward speed is still\r\nexpected for the system during the next couple of days while the\r\nsubtropical ridge remains in place but weakens.  After that time,\r\nthe cyclone should gradually turn toward the northwest due to a\r\nweakness in the ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough. Model\r\nguidance remains in good agreement, and the official forecast is\r\nbasically an update of the previous one, with a slight northward\r\nadjustment to account for the initial position change.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 10.2N 119.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 10.0N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z  9.9N 123.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z  9.9N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z  9.9N 127.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 10.6N 130.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 12.1N 133.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 14.5N 135.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Nineteen-E's cloud pattern has changed little\r\nduring the past 6-12 hours and consists of a persistent cluster of\r\ndeep convection near the low-level center and a lengthening band\r\nextending to the north and northeast.  The maximum winds remain 30\r\nkt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB.  Although\r\nthe depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical shear, very\r\nwarm waters, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification\r\nthroughout the five-day forecast period.  As such, the NHC\r\nintensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and shows\r\nthe depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days.\r\nThe intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees,\r\nand the official forecast closely follows the intensity consensus\r\nthrough 48 hours but then is a little higher (close to the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM models) on days 3 through 5.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the\r\ndepression appears to be moving westward, or 270/11 kt.  An\r\nelongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain north of the\r\ndepression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected\r\nto weaken through the weekend as broad troughing develops west of\r\nthe Baja California peninsula.  This pattern change should cause the\r\ncyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3\r\nand northwestward by day 5.  With the exception of the UKMET model,\r\nwhich does not show a northwestward turn by day 5, the remainder of\r\nthe track models are tightly clustered.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast is close to the multi-model consensus and essentially\r\nunchanged from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 10.2N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images suggest that the depression is not very\r\nwell organized.  The circulation is still somewhat elongated, and\r\nthe low-level center is located near the eastern edge of a cluster\r\nof deep convection.  The convection itself also appears to have\r\nlost some organization since earlier today.  The maximum winds\r\nremain 30 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.0 from TAFB and SAB.\r\nEven though environmental conditions appear conducive for\r\nstrengthening, the depression is not in any hurry to intensify.\r\nThe hurricane intensity models and the global models all insist\r\nthat the depression will strengthen soon.  However, the one\r\nprominent difference in this afternoon's model suite is that the\r\nECMWF model does not deepen the cyclone for another 48 hours or\r\nso.  Since most of the guidance intensifies the system through 5\r\ndays, the NHC intensity forecast remains consistent with the\r\nprevious forecasts, making the cyclone a hurricane in about 2-3\r\ndays.  This is also consistent with the latest intensity consensus.\r\nHowever, given the latest ECMWF run and the current structure of the\r\ndepression, it's possible that intensification could be delayed.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 265/11 kt.  A mid-level ridge is steering the\r\ndepression westward, and this motion is likely to continue for at\r\nleast another 48 hours.  After that time, the ridge is forecast to\r\nweaken and give way to a broad trough west of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  This should allow the cyclone to turn west-northwestward\r\nand then northwestward by day 5.  Although the track models\r\ngenerally agree on this scenario, the system's weaker representation\r\nin the ECMWF during the first few days causes it to continue\r\nwestward beyond 48 hours and make a more gradual turn compared to\r\nthe other models.  This now places the ECMWF closer to the UKMET\r\nmodel, which was the only outlier on the previous forecast cycle.\r\nBased on the new guidance, the NHC track forecast has been shifted\r\nwestward and is a little bit slower than the previous forecast,\r\nespecially at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 10.1N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z  9.9N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z  9.9N 125.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z  9.8N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z  9.9N 128.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 10.7N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 12.5N 134.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 15.0N 137.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has appeared ragged in satellite\r\nimages most of the day, and the latest Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB\r\nand SAB have decreased to 1.5/25 kt.  The associated deep convection\r\ndoes not have much curvature and it is largely confined to areas to\r\nthe north and west of the estimated center.  Based on the degraded\r\nappearance, the initial wind speed is lowered slightly to 25 kt.\r\n\r\nIt is not clear why the depression has not strengthened today as the\r\nlarge-scale environmental conditions have been quite conducive for\r\nintensification.  The depression is expected to remain in a low wind\r\nshear and high moisture environment and over warm water for at least\r\nthe next few days.  Therefore, it is assumed that the system will\r\nhave the opportunity to gain strength.  The GFS, as well as the\r\nGFS-based SHIPS and LGEM guidance, are the most aggressive models\r\nand show the cyclone becoming a hurricane in a couple of days with\r\ncontinued strengthening thereafter.  Conversely, the GFDL and HWRF\r\nmodels show much less strengthening.  Given the poor initial\r\nstructure of the cyclone, the official intensity forecast has been\r\nlowered in the short term but remains relatively unchanged from the\r\nprevious prediction at the later forecast times.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 11 kt steered by a\r\nsubtropical ridge to its north.  A continued westward motion but at\r\na slower pace is forecast during the next couple of days while the\r\nridge weakens in place.  After that time, a turn to the northwest\r\nis expected as a weakness develops in the ridge east of the\r\nHawaiian Islands.  Although there is considerable spread in the\r\nguidance on when the northwestward turn should occur, the models\r\nagree on the overall theme. The new official track forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous one for the first couple of\r\ndays, but then is shifted westward to come into better agreement\r\nwith the latest model consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 10.2N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 10.1N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 10.0N 126.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z  9.9N 128.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 10.2N 129.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 11.1N 132.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 12.7N 135.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 15.1N 137.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern remains poorly organized and consists of a small\r\narea of deep convection with little or no banding features.\r\nMicrowave data suggest that the low-level center is still on the\r\neastern edge of the convective region.  Given that the Dvorak\r\nCI-numbers have not changed significantly, the initial intensity is\r\nkept at 25 kt.\r\n\r\nIt is surprising that the depression has not responded to the\r\nquite favorable environment of low shear and warm waters yet. In\r\nfact, most the guidance indicated that the depression should have\r\nbeen already a strong tropical storm or even a hurricane. Since\r\nthe opportunity for strengthening is still there, the NHC forecast\r\ninsists on intensification and calls for the depression to become a\r\nhurricane in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe depression is trapped south of strong subtropical ridge moving\r\ntoward the west at 12 kt. Global models indicate that the ridge will\r\ngradually move eastward. This steering pattern should allow the\r\ncyclone to turn more to the west-northwest in about 3 days, and\r\neventually to move northward by the end of the forecast period. The\r\nNHC forecast is basically on top of the multi-model consensus and\r\nthe GFS/ECMWF solutions. The spread in the guidance has decreased a\r\nlittle bit, and in general, most of the models now turn the cyclone\r\nnorthward around 140 W. This increases slightly the confidence in\r\nthe long range track forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 10.1N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 10.0N 125.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 10.0N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 10.0N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 10.3N 130.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 11.5N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 13.0N 136.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern consists of a recently formed cluster\r\nof deep convection and fragmented convective banding features around\r\nthe outer circulation.  An 0910 UTC AMSR-2 overpass suggested that\r\nthe center was underneath this newly formed convective burst, which\r\nwould place it a little south of previous position estimates and\r\nopen the possibility that the center recently reformed.  An\r\nexpansive upper-level outflow is also noted in association with the\r\ncyclone.  Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged from 6 hours ago,\r\nso the initial intensity estimate remains 25 kt.\r\n\r\nIt is unclear why the cyclone has not yet responded by intensifying\r\nin a large-scale environment of light shear, a relatively moist\r\nmid-troposphere, and very warm waters.  Perhaps the structure of the\r\ncirculation has been a limiting factor.  Regardless, global models\r\ncontinue to develop a hurricane in the far western portion of the\r\neastern Pacific basin within a few days.  The statistical and\r\ndynamical intensity guidance is quite similar this cycle, though the\r\nstatistical output is slightly lower than before as a result of the\r\ncyclone's not intensifying yet.  The official intensity forecast\r\ncontinues to indicate strengthening at a rate very similar to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a little faster and just south of due\r\nwest or 265/14.  The cyclone is forecast to maintain a generally\r\nwestward motion underneath a subtropical ridge to the north during\r\nthe next few days and decelerate as the tail of a mid- to upper-\r\nlevel trough extending from the U.S. west coast causes the ridge to\r\nweaken.  A further weakening of the ridge after 48 hours should\r\ncause the cyclone to begin to gain more latitude, and an encounter\r\nwith a more significant weakness west of 140W should result in an\r\neven more poleward track by 96 hours.  The track guidance has\r\nshifted significantly to the left this cycle and is a bit faster,\r\nand the official track forecast follows that trend but is on the\r\nright-side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z  9.7N 125.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z  9.6N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z  9.6N 129.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z  9.6N 130.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z  9.9N 132.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 10.9N 135.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 12.8N 137.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 14.9N 140.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern has increased in organization since\r\nyesterday. A small CDO-like feature appears to be forming over the\r\nestimated low-level center.  There has also been an increase in\r\nbanding features and their associated curvature, especially over the\r\nwestern half of the circulation.  Dvorak intensity estimates have\r\nincreased some, and the initial intensity estimate is raised to 30\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes suggest that the depression may be slowing down, and\r\nthe initial motion estimate could be slightly slower than the\r\nlonger-term motion of 265/13.  The cyclone is forecast to maintain a\r\ngeneral westward course underneath a mid-level subtropical ridge\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours but decelerate as the tail of a\r\nmid- to upper- level trough, extending from the U.S. west coast,\r\ncauses the ridge to weaken.  As the ridge weakens further by 36\r\nhours, the cyclone should begin to gain more latitude.  An even\r\ngreater in increase in latitude is expected after 96 hours when the\r\ncyclone encounters a more significant weakness west of 140W.  The\r\nofficial track forecast has changed very little compared to the\r\nprevious one and is near the multi-model consensus throughout the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nWith the increased organization of the cyclone's central features,\r\nintensification seems likely in an environment characterized by\r\nvery warm SSTs, low shear, and a moist mid-troposphere.  In fact,\r\nthe SHIPS RI index shows a 65 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in\r\nintensity during the next 24 hours.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis raised relative to the previous one, especially during the early\r\npart of the forecast. Given the very conducive large-scale\r\nenvironment for intensification, it would not be surprising to see\r\nmore occur than what is currently forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z  9.5N 126.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z  9.4N 127.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z  9.4N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z  9.5N 131.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 10.0N 132.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 11.3N 135.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 13.4N 138.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 15.5N 140.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Tropical Depression Nineteen-E has continued\r\nto become better organized during the past several hours.  There\r\nis now a persistent convective area near the center and ragged\r\nouter bands in the western semicircle.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates have increased to 45 kt from SAB and 35 kt from TAFB.  In\r\naddition, Rapidscat data from the International Space Station showed\r\nan area of 30-35 kt winds just north of the central convection.\r\nBased on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm\r\nOlaf with 35 kt winds.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 270/12.  Olaf is currently being\r\nsteered by a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The dynamical models\r\nforecast the ridge to persist but weaken during the next 72-96\r\nhours due to the influence of a strong deep-layer trough forecast\r\nto develop over the southwestern United States.  This evolution\r\nshould cause Olaf to continue westward with a decrease in forward\r\nspeed during the first 36-48 hours, followed by a west-northwestward\r\nmotion from 48-96 hours. After that time, the ridge is forecast to\r\nbreak to the east of the Hawaiian Islands, which should allow the\r\nstorm to turn more northward.  The track guidance is generally in\r\ngood agreement with this scenario, with the ECMWF, GFS, and the\r\nvarious consensus models rather tightly clustered.  The new\r\nforecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 hours,\r\nthen is nudged slightly westward thereafter.  The new track is\r\nclose to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nOlaf is expected to remain in an environment of good moisture,\r\nlight shear, and warm sea surface temperatures for at least the\r\nnext three days, so there is no obvious reason it should not\r\nstrengthen.  On one side of the guidance, the LGEM forecasts Olaf\r\nto become a major hurricane in 72 hours, and the Rapid\r\nIntensification Index of the SHIPS model shows a 30-35 percent\r\nchance of 30 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours.  On the\r\nother side, the GFDL and HWRF forecast a much slower rate of\r\nintensification. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward from\r\nthe previous forecast based on current trends and is a compromise\r\nbetween the SHIPS model and the Florida State Superensemble.  As\r\nstated in the previous advisory, given the very conducive\r\nlarge-scale environment, it would not be surprising to see more\r\nstrengthening than is currently forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z  9.7N 127.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z  9.7N 129.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z  9.7N 130.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 10.0N 132.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 10.5N 133.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 12.0N 137.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 14.0N 140.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 16.5N 141.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective organization of Olaf has continued to improve since\r\nthe previous advisory. A ragged CDO feature has developed, but very\r\ncold overshooting cloud tops with temperatures of -87C to -88C have\r\nalso developed near the low-level circulation center as depicted in\r\nrecent passive microwave satellite images. In addition, outer curved\r\nband features have also improved to the north and south of the\r\ncenter while the upper-level outflow pattern has expanded and become\r\nmore symmetrical. The initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt\r\nbased on a consensus satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from\r\nTAFB and SAB, which is supported by a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of\r\nT3.4/53 kt and an 0134 UTC AMSU intensity estimate of 59 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 270/10 kt. The NHC model guidance\r\nremains in excellent agreement on Olaf rounding the southwestern and\r\nwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge during the next five days,\r\naccompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. On day 5, the\r\ncyclone could begin to recurve and accelerate toward the\r\nnorth-northeast or northeast as suggested by the GFS model, but the\r\npreponderance of the guidance keeps Olaf south of ridge axis and\r\nmoving generally northward at that time, and this is reflected in\r\nthe official forecast. The new track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory, and essentially lies down the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope and close to the consensus models.\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery suggests that the aforementioned intense burst of\r\nconvection has likely tightened up the inner-core wind field and has\r\nreduced the size of the radius of maximum winds (RMW). Given the\r\nsmall RMW of about 20 nmi, the expanding outflow pattern, continued\r\ndeep-layer vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, and mid-level\r\nhumidity values expected to increase to around 70 percent, a period\r\nof rapid intensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours.\r\nAfter that, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening\r\nthrough 72 hours, followed by a leveling off in the intensity on\r\ndays 4 and 5 due to possible eyewall replacement cycles that are\r\nimpossible to forecast that far in advance. The new intensity\r\nforecast is close to the LGEM intensity model through 72 hours, and\r\nthen is lower than the LGEM model and closer to the SHIPS model on\r\ndays 4 and 5. As mentioned in previous advisories, it would not be\r\nsurprising to see more strengthening than is currently forecast\r\ngiven the very conducive large-scale environment, similar to the\r\n96-h GFS and ECMWF model forecasts of a 938-mb and 956-mb hurricane,\r\nrespectively.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z  9.5N 128.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z  9.5N 129.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z  9.7N 131.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 10.1N 133.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 10.7N 134.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 12.2N 137.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 14.2N 140.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 16.3N 141.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015\r\n\r\nOlaf's cloud pattern has not exhibited much overall change since\r\nthe last advisory in conventional satellite imagery.  The cyclone\r\nis characterized by a small CDO with one primary band over the\r\nwestern half of the circulation, though the band is detached from\r\nthe main convective mass and fragmented.  The convective\r\ndistribution is suggestive of some northwesterly shear, as shown in\r\nGFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS output, but a partial 1030 UTC AMSU pass\r\nindicated a mid-level eye, perhaps not completely coincident with\r\nthe low-level center.  Dvorak intensity estimates are consensus\r\nT3.0/45 kt, but the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt on the\r\nbasis of the greater organization seen in microwave imagery.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/11.  The mid-level subtropical\r\nridge steering Olaf westward is about to weaken in response to the\r\nlong tail of a mid- to upper-level trough near the U.S. west coast\r\nsettling southward to the north of the cyclone.  The weaker ridge\r\nshould induce a slower forward speed with a gradual increase in\r\nlatitude during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, a large\r\nanticyclone forming in the east-central subtropical Pacific near\r\n140W is forecast to shift eastward while a weakness develops along\r\n150W.  Global models show Olaf moving in the flow between these two\r\nsynoptic features, which should result in a northwestward and then\r\nnorth-northwestward turn after 96 hours.  The official track\r\nforecast is nearly unchanged through 36 hours.  After that time, the\r\ntrack forecast is shifted westward in agreement with a leftward-\r\nshifting multi-model consensus and a majority of ECMWF ensemble\r\nmembers that were farther west than the operational ECMWF solution\r\nthat lies east of the multi-model consensus.  The new track forecast\r\nis on the western side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nExcept for the northwesterly shear, there are no obvious impediments\r\nto continued strengthening for the next few days. Exactly how much\r\nthe shear is a factor, however, remains to be seen, but its most\r\nlikely effect would be to possibly slow the rate of intensification.\r\nAccording to the SHIPS output, the northwesterly shear diminishes\r\nafter 36 hours, and with all other large-scale factors favoring\r\nintensification, Olaf is likely to become a major hurricane in 2\r\nor 3 days.  Late in the forecast period, once Olaf gains enough\r\nlatitude, a drier environment with an increase in southerly or\r\nsouth-southwesterly shear should result in weakening.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is near the multi-model consensus through 36\r\nhours and generally above it after that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z  9.4N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z  9.5N 130.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z  9.8N 132.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 10.3N 134.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 11.0N 135.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 12.6N 139.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 14.7N 141.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 16.9N 142.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015\r\n\r\nThere appears to have been a temporary interruption to Olaf's\r\nintensification this morning, which could be related to a couple of\r\ndifferent factors.  Microwave imagery from earlier suggested that\r\nthe cyclone ingested a tongue of relatively drier air.  There is\r\nalso moderate northwesterly shear still affecting the system.\r\nNevertheless, there are some signs that Olaf could be about to\r\nresume an intensification.  The cyclone has maintained a small CDO,\r\nbut there is now greater definition to inner-core features than 12\r\nto 24 hours ago, and the convective bands have lengthened and gained\r\ngreater curvature.  While satellite classifications remain a\r\nconsensus T3.0/45 kt at 1800 UTC, the initial intensity estimate of\r\n50 kt from the previous advisory is maintained.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/11.  The mid-level subtropical\r\nridge steering Olaf westward should weaken soon in response to the\r\nlong tail of a mid- to upper-level trough near the U.S. west coast\r\nsettling southward to the north of the cyclone.  The weaker ridge\r\nshould induce a west-northwestward course at a reduced forward speed\r\nduring the 2 to 3 days.  After about 72 hours, a large anticyclone\r\nforming in the east-central subtropical Pacific near 140W is\r\nforecast to shift eastward while a weakness develops along farther\r\nwest.  Global models show Olaf moving in the flow between these two\r\nsynoptic features, resulting in a northwestward and then north-\r\nnorthwestward turn after 96 hours.  The guidance has shifted toward\r\nthe left again this cycle, especially later in the forecast period,\r\nand the official track forecast is moved in that direction.  Since\r\nmost of the global models depicted Olaf farther north than where it\r\ncurrently is, it would not be surprising if further leftward\r\nadjustments are necessary.\r\n\r\nOther than some northwesterly shear over Olaf during the next day or\r\nso, the large-scale environment is conducive for Olaf to intensify.\r\nThe shear could slow the rate of intensification, but it would not\r\nappear strong enough not to allow Olaf to strengthen at least at the\r\nclimatological rate of development of one Dvorak T-number per day.\r\nA diminution of the shear by 36 hours, in combination with other\r\nvery conducive environmental factors, should allow Olaf to\r\nstrengthen to near major hurricane strength in 2 to 3 days.  Olaf\r\nis also expected to become a much larger cyclone during the next\r\nseveral days, with an impressive expansion of the wind field\r\ndepicted in global models.  Late in the forecast period, once Olaf\r\ngains enough latitude, a drier environment with an increase in\r\nsoutherly or south-southwesterly shear should result in weakening.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is identical to the previous one and is\r\nclosest to the FSU Superensemble output and near the upper edge of\r\nthe guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z  9.2N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z  9.3N 131.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z  9.8N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 10.3N 135.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 11.0N 136.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 12.9N 139.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 15.2N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 17.3N 142.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-10-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2015\r\n\r\nAfter the pause noted in the previous advisory, Olaf has resumed\r\nintensification this evening.  Well-defined convective bands\r\nwith cloud tops colder than -80C have formed around the center, and\r\nmicrowave data show a developing 15 n mi wide eye.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates have increased to 55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and\r\nthere is a recent CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate of 52 kt.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 270/8.  Olaf is now moving slower as the\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north weakens in response to the influence\r\nof a mid- to upper-level trough near the U. S. west coast.  A\r\ngeneral west-northwestward motion is expected for the next two days\r\nor so as the cyclone moves on the south side of the weakened ridge.\r\nAfter that time, a second mid- to upper-level trough passing north\r\nof the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to cause a break in the ridge,\r\nallowing Olaf to turn northwestward by 72 hours and northward by\r\n120 hours. There is little overall change in the guidance since the\r\nlast advisory.  Thus, the new forecast track is very similar to the\r\nprevious track and lies near the center of the track guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nThere is still some light northwesterly shear over Olaf.  However,\r\nthis is forecast to diminish during the next 24 hours, and improving\r\ncirrus outflow suggests this may already be occurring.  Based on\r\nthis, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist environment,\r\ncontinued strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours.\r\nAfter 72 hours, developing southerly shear and dry air entrainment\r\nare expected to cause Olaf to weaken.  The new intensity forecast\r\nis similar to the previous forecast and is in best agreement with\r\nthe Florida State Superensemble.  It should be noted that the small\r\ninner core seen in microwave imagery could allow rapid\r\nintensification, and the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS\r\nmodel has a 25-30 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in intensity\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  Should this occur, Olaf could get\r\nsignificantly stronger than currently forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z  9.2N 131.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z  9.4N 132.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z  9.9N 134.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 10.4N 135.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 11.2N 137.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 13.5N 140.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 15.5N 142.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 18.0N 142.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-10-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015\r\n\r\nOlaf has intensified overnight.  Satellite images show that\r\nconvection has deepened with a sizable area of -90C cloud tops near\r\nthe center, along with an eye occasionally appearing on the\r\nnight-visible channel.  Microwave data also show that the eye has\r\nbecome better defined, and the feature has even become more distinct\r\nin the lower resolution AMSU data.  With the appearance of the eye\r\nin conventional satellite data and the increase in convection near\r\nthe center, the initial wind speed is set to 65 kt, near the Dvorak\r\nestimate from SAB. It is also worth noting that ASCAT data show that\r\nOlaf has also grown in size significantly from yesterday, and this\r\nis reflected in the larger initial and forecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nOlaf should continue to intensify during the next couple of days\r\nwith favorable environmental conditions of low shear, warm water and\r\nhigh mid-level moisture in the forecast. Rapid intensification is a\r\ndistinct possibility, with the SHIPS-RI index showing about a 40\r\npercent chance of a 30-kt increase in the next 24 hours.  The\r\nintensity forecast will bring Olaf up to major hurricane strength in\r\n36 hours, in line with the highest guidance from the LGEM model and\r\nthe Florida State Superensemble. In a few days, some southerly shear\r\nand dry air entrainment is possible, which could lead to Olaf\r\nbeginning a weakening trend.  Little change was made to the long\r\nrange intensity forecast, close to a blend of the previous NHC\r\nprediction and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nASCAT and satellite data were very helpful in determining an\r\ninitial motion of 275/8.  A motion to the west and then west-\r\nnorthwest is expected for the next two days or so while the cyclone\r\nmoves on the south side of the subtropical ridge.  After that time,\r\na mid- to upper-level trough passing north of the Hawaiian Islands\r\nis forecast to cause a break in the ridge, allowing Olaf to turn\r\nnorthwestward by 96 hours and northward by 120 hours.  Although\r\nguidance is in general agreement on the large-scale pattern, the\r\ntiming of the northward turn is in some question, especially since\r\nOlaf has been struggling to gain latitude.  Overall, the guidance\r\nhas generally been showing a later turn, with the ECMWF/UKMET models\r\nhaving a weaker trough and less of a ridge breakdown.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is shifted west toward the latest consensus aids, although\r\nit still lies east of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nAt 9.4N, Olaf is the lowest-latitude hurricane formation in the\r\neastern Pacific dataset.  Reliable records in the basin go back to\r\nabout 1971.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z  9.4N 131.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z  9.6N 133.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 10.0N 135.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 10.6N 136.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 11.3N 138.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 13.3N 141.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 15.0N 143.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 17.5N 143.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-10-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe could pattern of Olaf features a CDO with a primary convective\r\nband extending into the southern and western semicircles. A 0726Z\r\nGPM image showed a well-defined low- and mid-level eye, and the\r\ninitial intensity has been nudged upward to 70 kt, a little above\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Further strengthening\r\nappears likely for the next couple of days while the hurricane moves\r\nover warm waters and through a generally low-shear environment. The\r\nSHIPS RI index continues to suggest that rapid intensification is\r\npossible, with a 47 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next\r\n24 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\none and is along the upper edge of the guidance, closest to the LGEM\r\nforecast. By 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over somewhat\r\ncooler waters with a slight increase in shear, which should result\r\nin slow weakening late in the period.\r\n\r\nOlaf continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion\r\nestimate of 275/10. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged,\r\nwith Olaf expected to gradually turn poleward during the forecast\r\nperiod as the subtropical ridge initially to the northwest of Olaf\r\nlifts northward and weakens. The track model guidance is in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, but continues to trend toward a more\r\ngradual northward turn. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted\r\na little to the left of the previous one and is close to the latest\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z  9.5N 133.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z  9.7N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 10.2N 136.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 10.8N 138.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 11.6N 139.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 13.5N 142.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 15.5N 143.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 17.8N 144.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-10-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015\r\n\r\nOlaf hasn't changed much in organization during the past few hours,\r\nwith satellite imagery still showing a CDO and a large, but broken,\r\nconvective band in the western and southern semicircles of the\r\ncyclone. There appears to be a dry slot working into the western\r\nside of the circulation, and the eye has been less distinct in\r\nrecent microwave imagery than it was earlier. The initial intensity\r\nremains 70 kt, a little higher than the latest Dvorak estimates from\r\nTAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial 34- and 50-kt wind\r\nradii were adjusted based on a timely 1815Z ASCAT-B overpass.\r\n\r\nThe pause in strengthening could be due to the aforementioned dry\r\nair and moderate west-northwesterly to northwesterly shear analyzed\r\nover the cyclone by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS. Given the shear\r\nand an inner-core that may be a little less organized, the new NHC\r\nintensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening in the first\r\ncouple of days, and is now closer to the bulk of the intensity\r\nguidance. The forecast still shows Olaf becoming a major hurricane\r\nin 2-3 days followed by a slow decay as the hurricane moves over\r\nsomewhat cooler SSTs late in the period. The NHC prediction is close\r\nto the SHIPS model through much of the period, but a little above it\r\nat peak intensity.\r\n\r\nOlaf continues to move quickly westward, with a motion now estimated\r\nat 280/12. This continues a trend of the hurricane moving faster and\r\nto the left of the previous couple of forecasts. While the\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north weakens is still expected to weaken\r\nand lift northward, the track model guidance continues to shift\r\nwestward given the initial motion and Olaf failing to gain as much\r\nlatitude as previously thought in the short term. The new NHC track\r\nforecast has been adjusted to the left of the previous one,\r\nespecially at days 3 through 5, and is now close to a blend of the\r\nlatest ECMWF and GFS forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z  9.7N 134.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z  9.9N 135.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 10.3N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 11.0N 139.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 11.8N 140.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 13.7N 143.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 18.0N 145.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-10-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015\r\n\r\nOlaf's inner-core convective pattern has improved significantly\r\nsince the previous advisory. A cloud-filled eye about 15 n mi in\r\ndiameter has become apparent in visible, infrared, and passive\r\nmicrowave satellite data since around 18/2300Z, and cloud tops have\r\ncooled to below -80C almost encircling the eye during the past hour.\r\nThe initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt based on a blend\r\nof Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and\r\nT4.5/77 kt from SAB. This intensity is supported by NHC AODT\r\nsatellite intensity estimates of T4.8/85 kt and T5.2/95 kt using\r\nembedded-center and obscured-eye patterns, respectively.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/10 kt based on microwave and\r\nvisible eye fixes. Other than a slight southward adjustment due to\r\nthe recent eye positions, the previous forecast track and reasoning\r\nessentially remain unchanged. Olaf is expected to gradually round\r\nthe southwestern and western portion of a deep-layer subtropical\r\nridge, turning northward and slowing down considerably on days 4 and\r\n5 as the hurricane moves into a weakness in the ridge. The westward\r\nshift in the guidance as mentioned in the previous discussion\r\nappears to have settled down on this latest cycle with the UKMET and\r\nthe other models now having moved closer together. The new NHC track\r\nforecast has been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous\r\nadvisory track due to the more southward initial position, and lies\r\nbetween the consensus models and the more westward UKMET solution.\r\n\r\nAlthough Olaf has made a sharp intensity comeback, the proximity of\r\na pronounced dry slot that has worked its way completely around the\r\nsmall inner-core convective region of the hurricane precludes\r\nforecasting rapid intensification at this time. However, with the\r\nvertical shear expected to be near or below 5 kt for the next 72\r\nhours while Olaf remains over 29C or greater SSTs, at least steady\r\nstrengthening appears to be in order for the next 36 hours or so.\r\nAlthough the LGEM intensity guidance brings Olaf to category 4\r\nstrength (115-120 kt) in the 36-72 h period, the official forecast\r\nlevels off the intensity at 110 kt due to the likelihood of one or\r\nmore eyewall replacement cycles occurring during that time. By days\r\n4 and 5, a gradual weakening trend is forecast to occur as Olaf\r\nmoves into a region of much drier mid-level air with humidity values\r\nless than 50 percent, along with cold upwelling occurring beneath\r\nthe cyclone due to the hurricane's expected slower forward speed of\r\naround 5 kt.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z  9.7N 135.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z  9.9N 136.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 10.3N 138.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 11.0N 140.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 11.9N 141.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 13.7N 144.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 16.1N 145.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 18.2N 145.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-10-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015\r\n\r\nThe overall satellite presentation of the hurricane has not changed\r\nsince the previous advisory.  The ragged eye that was seen in the\r\nlast few visible satellite pictures has not become apparent in\r\novernight infrared images, but recent microwave data have indicated\r\nthe presence of a small well-defined eye. Objective and subjective\r\nDvorak satellite intensity estimates still support an initial wind\r\nspeed of 85 kt.  Olaf is expected to remain over warm water and in a\r\nlow vertical wind shear environment during the next several days.\r\nThese factors favor intensification and Olaf is expected to become a\r\nmajor hurricane during the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time,\r\nsome additional strengthening is forecast, but fluctuations in\r\nintensity are likely due to eyewall cycles.  The new NHC forecast is\r\nunchanged from the previous advisory and is near the upper-end of\r\nthe intensity guidance, closest to the SHIPS/LGEM models. Some\r\ngradual weakening is shown at days 4 and 5 when Olaf moves over\r\nslightly cooler waters and into an area of drier mid-level air.\r\n\r\nRecent satellite and microwave fixes show that Olaf is moving\r\nwestward or 280/10 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains\r\nunchanged, as Olaf is expected to move around the southwestern\r\nand western portions of a deep-layer subtropical ridge during the\r\nnext several days.  The hurricane is forecast to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward later today before it moves into the Central Pacific\r\nbasin tonight.  A northwestward motion is expected in 2 to 3 days,\r\nand a turn toward the north should occur late in the period when\r\nOlaf nears a break in the ridge along 145W.  The new NHC track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory through 72 hours, but has been\r\nadjusted westward at days 4 and 5 to be closer to the latest\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 10.0N 136.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 10.3N 137.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 10.8N 139.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 11.4N 141.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 12.3N 142.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 14.3N 144.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 16.5N 146.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 19.0N 146.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-10-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 19 2015\r\n\r\nA small eye is now apparent in infrared imagery, and the coverage\r\nand symmetry of the cold cloud tops has improved during the past few\r\nhours. The initial intensity is set to 100 kt based on the latest\r\nDvorak classification of T5.5/102 kt from SAB, making Olaf the 6th\r\nmajor hurricane in the eastern North Pacific this year. This is the\r\nfarthest south that a major hurricane has formed in the basin since\r\nreliable records began in 1971.\r\n\r\nFurther strengthening appears likely in the next day or so, and in\r\nfact the SHIPS RI index shows a 44 percent chance of a 25-kt\r\nincrease in the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast has been\r\nadjusted upward to account for the observed strengthening, and shows\r\na peak of 125 kt in 24 hours. Little change in intensity is then\r\nshown through 48 hours, however, there could be fluctuations in\r\nintensity due to eyewall cycles during this time that are not\r\nrepresented in the forecast. Later in the period, gradual weakening\r\nshould begin as Olaf moves over slightly cooler waters into a\r\nsomewhat drier environment. The new NHC forecast is above the\r\nguidance in the first 24 hours and close to the latest SHIPS model\r\nprediction thereafter.\r\n\r\nOlaf continues to move westward, with an initial motion of 280/12.\r\nThis continues a trend of a motion that has been a little faster and\r\nto the left of much of the guidance and the NHC forecast. While the\r\ntrack forecast reasoning has not changed, with Olaf expected to\r\ngradually turn northward through the forecast period as the ridge to\r\nthe north erodes, the guidance envelope has continued to shift\r\nwestward this cycle. In fact, the multi-model consensus has shifted\r\nwestward by about 2 degrees compared to 24 hours ago at days 4 and\r\n5. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the left this\r\ncycle by 60 to 90 n mi at days 2 through 5. The NHC track is now on\r\nthe left side of the guidance envelope and closer to the UKMET\r\nmodel, which has been the best performing track model so far for\r\nOlaf.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z  9.9N 137.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 10.2N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 10.8N 140.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 11.4N 142.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 12.2N 144.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 14.0N 146.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 16.7N 146.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-10-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015\r\n\r\nOlaf has continued to rapidly intensify today. The hurricane has a\r\nclassical appearance on satellite imagery with a small, clear eye\r\nsurrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of -70C to -80C. Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS were T6.0/115 kt, and these\r\nare the basis for the initial intensity. Olaf has strengthened 45 kt\r\nin the last 24 hours, and some additional strengthening is still\r\npossible in the next day or two. However, there could also be\r\nfluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are\r\nnot accounted for here. The new NHC forecast shows a peak of 125 kt\r\nat 12 h to 36 h and then a slow decay as the cyclone begins to move\r\nover slightly cooler SSTs and into a drier environment later in the\r\nperiod. The official forecast is above the intensity consensus and\r\nclose to the FSU Superensemble.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/10, as Olaf continues to move\r\nwestward to the south of a mid-level ridge centered near 30N/140W.\r\nThis ridge will gradually weaken as a trough advances over the\r\nnorth-central Pacific, and this will allow Olaf to finally begin\r\ngaining some latitude as it gradually turns northwestward and then\r\nnorthward during the forecast period. The UKMET model still is on\r\nthe left side of the guidance envelope for the first 48 hours, but\r\nhas shifted toward a sharper northward turn after that time. This\r\nputs the GFS and ECMWF now on the left side of the guidance\r\nenvelope. Overall, the new NHC track forecast is an update of the\r\nprevious one and is still left of the consensus. The official\r\nforecast is between the UKMET and the rest of the guidance in the\r\nfirst 48 hours, and then lies along the left side of the track model\r\nenvelope at days 3 through 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 10.0N 138.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 10.3N 140.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 10.9N 141.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 11.7N 143.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 12.6N 144.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 14.7N 146.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 17.7N 147.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Olaf","Adv":21,"Date":"2015-10-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 19 2015\r\n\r\nOlaf has maintained a small pinhole eye with a diameter of no more\r\nthan 10 n mi. Satellite intensity estimates were a consensus\r\nT6.0/115 kt from TAFB, UW-CIMSS ADT, and the NHC AODT algorithm at\r\n20/0000Z. However, since that time the eye has warmed a little and a\r\nring of cloud tops colder than -75C has developed around the eye, so\r\nthe intensity has been nudged slightly higher to 120 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/09 kt. Olaf is expected to\r\ncontinue moving westward to west-northwestward along the southern\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, and\r\nthen turn northwestward toward a developing weakness in the ridge on\r\ndays 2 and 3. By 96 and 120 hours, a series of fast-moving shortwave\r\ntroughs embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies is expected to\r\ngradually create a break in the mid-level ridge between 145W-150W\r\nlongitude, allowing Olaf to move northward and remain well east of\r\nthe Hawaiian Islands. The latest NHC model guidance is in much\r\nbetter agreement on this developing scenario compared to 24 hours\r\nago, and even the UKMET model has shifted eastward and is now on\r\nthe east side of the guidance envelope at 96 and 120 hours. The\r\nofficial forecast track lies a little to the left of the previous\r\nadvisory track, and follows the consensus models TVCE and GFEX.\r\n\r\nThere has been slight flattening of the CDO in the northwestern\r\nquadrant caused by some light to moderate northwesterly mid-level\r\nshear as noted in recent UW-CIMSS shear analyses, which could\r\ninhibit intensification some in the short term. However, some\r\nadditional strengthening is still likely over the next day or so\r\nsince Olaf will be affected by deep-layer shear of 5 kt or less and\r\nbe over 29C SSTs. As mentioned in the previous advisory, there could\r\nbe fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that\r\ncan not be forecast more than a few hours in advance. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast continues to indicate a peak of 125 kt at 12-36\r\nhours, followed by a slow decay by 48-72 as Olaf begins to move\r\nslowly over slightly cooler SSTs and into a moderate southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear regime. The official intensity forecast remains\r\nabove the intensity consensus, but below the LGEM and SHIPS\r\nforecasts, which bring Olaf to just below category 5 strength in\r\n36-48 hours.\r\n\r\nWith Olaf moving into the central North Pacific basin within the\r\nnext six hours or so, this will be the last advisory from NHC.\r\nFuture information on Olaf can be found in advisories issued by the\r\nCentral Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 PM HST (0900Z).\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 10.1N 139.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 10.4N 140.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 11.1N 142.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 12.0N 143.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 13.0N 145.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 15.4N 146.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 18.3N 146.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 20.9N 146.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":49,"Date":"2015-10-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 26 2015\r\n\r\nOlaf has become less organized over the past several hours.  The\r\nassociated convection has decreased and has been displaced\r\nnortheast of the center by 25 kt of vertical wind shear.  In\r\naddition, the low-level circulation has become elongated from\r\nnortheast to southwest.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB are 45 kt, so the initial intensity is reduced to that value.\r\n\r\nA combination of continuing shear, cool sea surface temperatures,\r\nand dry air entrainment should keep Olaf on a weakening trend.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to weaken to a tropical depression in about 24\r\nhours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48 hours, and both\r\nof these events could occur earlier than currently forecast if new\r\nconvection does not form near the center.  The new forecast is an\r\nupdate of the previous CPHC forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 060/16.  Olaf is currently being steered by\r\na strong deep-layer trough to the north of the cyclone.  This\r\ntrough is forecast to move quickly eastward, with a low-level ridge\r\nbuilding in its wake to the north of Olaf.  As Olaf weakens and\r\nbecomes a shallow system, this ridge should become the dominant\r\nsteering mechanism and cause the cyclone to turn southward and\r\neventually southwestward.  The new forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious track and lies near the various consensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 26.3N 137.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 27.2N 135.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 27.8N 133.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 27.3N 133.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 26.1N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 24.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olaf","Adv":50,"Date":"2015-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with\r\nOlaf is rapidly deteriorating due to the effects of southwesterly\r\nshear and cold water. The low-level center is becoming elongated and\r\nthe remnant convection is well removed from the center. Based on a\r\nrecent ASCAT data, the initial intensity is set at 40 kt. Global\r\nmodels indicate that the cyclone will continue to decouple fast, and\r\nmost likely the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low later\r\ntoday, and into a trough of low pressure in a day or two.\r\n\r\nThe overall circulation is moving toward the northeast at 10 kt.\r\nHowever, as the system becomes a shallow cyclone or a trough in\r\nabout a day, it will be steered west-southwestward by the low-level\r\nflow associated with an eastward moving high pressure system to the\r\nnorth of Olaf.  The NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and\r\nit follows the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 26.4N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 27.0N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 27.0N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 26.2N 134.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 25.5N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Olaf","Adv":51,"Date":"2015-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP192015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 27 2015\r\n\r\nGeostationary satellite imagery indicates that the system is devoid\r\nof deep convection, so Olaf is no longer a tropical cyclone and\r\nadvisories are being discontinued at this time.  Data from a recent\r\nscatterometer overpass showed that the low-level circulation\r\nis becoming elongated, but the system is still producing winds to\r\ngale force.  With the lack of convection or strong baroclinic\r\nforcing, the cyclone is likely to gradually spin down and dissipate\r\nin a few days.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical cyclone has been moving east-northeastward, or\r\n060/9 kt.  Global models show a low-level ridge building to the\r\nnorth of the system over the next couple of days.  This should\r\ncause a turn toward the southwest and west-southwest by tomorrow.\r\nThe official forecast also shows this turn, although it is not\r\nquite as fast as the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on Olaf, please see High SeasForecasts\r\nissued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header\r\nNFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 26.7N 135.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 26.9N 134.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 26.2N 134.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 25.4N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 25.0N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-10-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that deep convection associated with the\r\narea of low pressure a few hundred miles southeast of Puerto\r\nEscondido, Mexico, has become sufficiently well organized to\r\ndesignate the system as a tropical depression.  The circulation of\r\nthe low has also become better defined according to an overnight\r\nASCAT pass, though it could still be somewhat elongated to the\r\nsouth.  The depression's cloud pattern is characterized by\r\ninterlocking convective bands, with the estimated low-level center\r\nunderneath the eastward tip of the western band.  A Dvorak intensity\r\nestimate of T2.0 from TAFB is used to set the initial intensity at\r\n30 kt.\r\n\r\nSince the center location uncertainty has been high until\r\nvery recently, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain\r\n280/02.  The track guidance is in very good agreement that a\r\nmid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico with an east-northeast to\r\nwest-northwest orientation should impart a west-southwestward motion\r\nfor about 24 hours.  A turn toward the west and west-northwest\r\nwith some increase in forward speed is forecast by 36 hours once the\r\nridge over the Gulf of Mexico shifts eastward.  When the cyclone\r\nreaches the western edge of ridge around 72 hours, it should turn\r\nnorthwestward.  The evolution of a deep longwave trough over the\r\nsouthwestern U.S. and northwestern Mexico is of critical\r\nimportance to the track forecast after that time as the cyclone\r\nnears the southwestern coast of Mexico. There are differences\r\nbetween the models regarding the timing and strength of a shortwave\r\ntrough dropping into the southwestern U. S. during this period,\r\nresulting in increasing spread of the track guidance after 72\r\nhours.  The track forecast is close to the multi-model consensus,\r\nbut it is a little west of the GFS and ECMWF solutions beyond day 3.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale environment around the cyclone is forecast to be\r\nquite conducive for intensification during the next few days, with\r\nSSTs to above 30 deg C, a rich moisture supply in the lower to\r\nmiddle troposphere, and very light vertical shear.  The main\r\nlimiting factor should be how quickly the cyclone develops enough\r\ninner-core organization to potentially rapidly intensify.  Prior to\r\nlandfall, an increase in southwesterly vertical shear and drier air\r\nassociated with the mid-to upper-level trough to the northwest could\r\nresult in weakening, with a peak intensity mostly likely between the\r\n72- and 96-hour points.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the\r\nmulti-model consensus and in best agreement with the LGEM output\r\nuntil the forecast landfall.  Dissipation is shown after 96 hours,\r\nthough it could occur sooner over the high terrain of the Sierra\r\nMadre Occidental.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 13.3N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 13.0N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 12.8N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 12.9N  98.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 13.9N 101.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 16.3N 103.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 20.5N 104.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-10-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern associated with Tropical Depression Twenty-E\r\nis gradually becoming better organized, with a large band now\r\ndeveloping over the southeastern semicircle and a smaller band west\r\nof the center.  In addition, while the circulation continues to be\r\nelongated north-northeast to south-southwest, microwave imagery\r\nsuggests a small inner core is developing under the main convection.\r\nA recent Rapidscat overpass shows gale-force winds over the Gulf of\r\nTehuantepec.  However, these winds appear to be more related to flow\r\nfrom the Gulf of Mexico through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec than to\r\nthe tropical cyclone.  Thus, the initial intensity remains 30 kt in\r\nagreement with a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 265/3.  A mid-level ridge over the Gulf of\r\nMexico should steer the tropical cyclone west-southwestward to\r\nwestward for the next 24 hours or so.  After that time, the ridge is\r\nforecast to move eastward, with the cyclone being steered between\r\nthe ridge and a deep-layer trough over the southwestern U. S. and\r\nnorthwestern Mexico.  While there is some spread due to differences\r\nin how the dynamical models forecast the ridge and trough to evolve,\r\nthe guidance is in good agreement that the cyclone should turn\r\nnorthwestward by about 48 hours and northward after 72 hours, making\r\nlandfall in western Mexico between 72-96 hours. The new forecast\r\ntrack is nudged a little to the east of the previous track between\r\n48-72 hours, but at other times is little changed from the previous\r\ntrack.  The new track lies close to the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale environment around the cyclone is forecast to be\r\nquite conducive for intensification through about 72 hours, with\r\nSSTs to above 30 deg C, a generally rich moisture supply in the\r\nlower to middle troposphere, and light vertical shear.  The two main\r\nlimiting factors are whether the current inner core will develop\r\nfurther, and whether the flow through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec\r\nwill entrain a tongue of drier low-level air into the cyclone. Based\r\non the premise that the positive factors will outweigh the\r\nnegatives, the intensity forecast is unchanged from that of the\r\nprevious advisory and calls for the cyclone to become a tropical\r\nstorm in 12 hours and a hurricane before landfall in Mexico.  After\r\nlandfall, the cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate over the\r\nmountains of Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 13.2N  94.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 12.9N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 12.9N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 13.4N  99.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 14.5N 101.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 21.5N 104.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-10-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2015\r\n\r\nAlthough cloud tops have warmed since the previous advisory, the\r\noverall convective cloud pattern has become a little better\r\norganized. Dropsondes released from a NASA WB-57 aircraft conducting\r\nresearch in Patricia earlier this afternoon for the Office of Naval\r\nResearch's Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment was helpful\r\nin locating the low-level center, and also confirmed the development\r\nof a weak mid-level eye-like feature noted in recent passive\r\nmicrowave images. The initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt\r\nbased on a satellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and\r\nT2.9/43 kt from UW-CIMMS ADT, making the cyclone the 16th named\r\nstorm of the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. This\r\nintensity is also supported by dropsonde data in the southeastern\r\nquadrant of the cyclone between 2000-2200Z, which indicated surface\r\nwinds of 34-36 kt and also a fairly deep layer of 37-39 kt winds\r\nfrom 1000-925 mb. Winds west of the center were 30 kt, suggesting\r\nthat the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event may be subsiding.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 255/04 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Patricia is\r\nexpected to move west-southwestward to westward for the next 12\r\nhours or so as the aforementioned gap wind event forces the cyclone\r\na little southward. After that time, Patricia is forecast to turn\r\nwest-northwestward on Wednesday and northwestward on Thursday as the\r\ncyclone rounds the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge that\r\nextends from the central Gulf of Mexico southwestward into central\r\nMexico. Although there is some spread in the NHC track guidance, the\r\nmodels are in fairly good agreement that Patricia should turn\r\nnorth-northwestward to northward by 72 hours, making landfall in\r\nsouthwestern Mexico. The new forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious track and lies close to the consensus models TVCE and GFEX.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale environment of vertical shear less than 5 kt, very\r\nhigh mid-level humidity values in excess of 80 percent, and SSTs\r\ngreater than 30C support at least steady strengthening until\r\nlandfall occurs. The possibility of rapid intensification (RI)\r\nexists once a distinct eye feature develops, which could develop in\r\n36 hours or so. The intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory in calling for Patricia to become a hurricane before making\r\nlandfall in Mexico, and closely follows the LGEM intensity model.\r\nHowever, if RI should occur, then Patricia will likely be stronger\r\nat landfall than the current forecast is indicating. After landfall,\r\nthe cyclone should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains\r\nof Mexico.\r\n\r\nA tropical storm or hurricane watch may be required by Wednesday\r\nmorning for portions of southwestern Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 13.1N  95.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 13.0N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 13.3N  98.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 14.2N 100.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 15.5N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 18.8N 103.7W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND NEAR COAST\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 22.6N 105.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the storm is not well organized at this time,\r\nwith not much deep convection concentrated near the estimated\r\ncenter position.  There is also a lack of well-defined banding\r\nfeatures.  The current intensity estimate is held at 35 kt, in\r\nagreement with a Dvorak CI Value from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe center is not easy to track on nighttime imagery, with a\r\nsignificant spread in fix locations from TAFB and SAB, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 270/6 kt.  The\r\nprimary steering features over the next few days are a\r\nmid-tropospheric trough extending southward into extreme\r\nnorthwestern Mexico and a high over the Gulf of Mexico.  This flow\r\nregime should cause Patricia to turn gradually to the right over the\r\nnext few days, and cross the coast of southwestern Mexico within 72\r\nhours or so.  The official track forecast resembles the previous\r\none but is a little faster, and is close to the new model\r\nconsensus.  This is between the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nAlthough the tropical cyclone has not strengthened significantly\r\nthus far, the environment seems to be quite conducive for\r\nintensification.  With very warm sea surface temperatures near 30\r\ndeg C, light vertical shear, and a very moist atmosphere likely to\r\nprevail during the next couple of days, Patricia is forecast to\r\nstrengthen into a hurricane by tomorrow.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is close to the LGEM guidance, but it should be noted that\r\nif the system develops a well-defined inner core, rapid\r\nintensification is certainly possible.  Note that in the official\r\nwind speed forecast shown here, additional strengthening is implied\r\nafter the 48 hour forecast and up until landfall.\r\n\r\nBased on the new 48-hour forecast location and the predicted wind\r\nradii, A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Watch have been\r\nissued for portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 13.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 13.2N  97.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 14.0N  99.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite data show that Patricia\r\nremains poorly organized.  The low-level circulation is elongated\r\nfrom north to south, and there is little evidence of a tight inner\r\ncore.  While the convection is vigorous, it is occurring mainly in\r\nan almost linear area west and south of the center.  The latest\r\nsatellite intensity estimates are unchanged since the previous\r\nadvisory, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt.\r\n\r\nPatricia is moving faster toward the west with an initial motion of\r\n270/10.  There is no change to the track forecast philosophy.  The\r\ntropical cyclone is expected to initially move westward to\r\nwest-northwestward on the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge\r\nover the Gulf of Mexico.  After about 24 hours, Patricia is expected\r\nto turn northwestward and northward between the ridge and a deep-\r\nlayer trough over northwestern Mexico and the adjacent northeastern\r\nPacific.  The model guidance is in excellent agreement with this\r\nscenario and forecasts landfall along the coast of southwestern\r\nMexico between 48-72 hours.  The new forecast track is similar to,\r\nbut a little faster than, the previous track, and it lies in the\r\nmiddle of the tightly clustered track guidance.\r\n\r\nContinued light shear and warm sea surface temperatures are\r\nfavorable conditions for Patricia to strengthen if the storm can\r\novercome its current disorganized condition.  Based on the premise\r\nthat this will happen, the intensity forecast is identical to that\r\nof the previous advisory in calling for the cyclone to become a\r\nhurricane in about 36 hours and continue strengthening through\r\nlandfall.  Several of the guidance models forecast a higher peak\r\nintensity than the official, and rapid intensification remains a\r\npossibility given the favorable environment.  After landfall,\r\nPatricia should quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of\r\nwestern Mexico.\r\n\r\nThere are no changes to the watches for the coast of Mexico at this\r\ntime.  Warnings my be required for portions of the watch area later\r\ntoday or tonight.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that several of the global models develop a low\r\npressure area over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in four to five\r\ndays.  At this time, it appears that this system will be a\r\nnon-tropical low that absorbs the remnants and moisture of Patricia\r\nmoving northeastward across Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 12.9N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 13.4N  99.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015\r\n\r\nReports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that\r\nPatricia has become much better organized since this morning.  The\r\naircraft reported 850 mb flight-level winds of 59 kt about 15 n mi\r\nsoutheast of the center along with surface wind estimates of 50-55\r\nkt from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer.  The minimum\r\npressure estimated from the aircraft data is 995 mb.  Based on this\r\ninformation the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe storm has continued to accelerate, possibly aided be some\r\nreformation of the center, and the initial motion is now 275/14.\r\nOther than this, the track forecast scenario from the previous\r\nadvisory still looks good.  The tropical cyclone is expected to\r\ninitially move westward to west-northwestward on the south side of a\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico.  After 12-24 hours,\r\nPatricia is expected to turn northwestward and northward between the\r\nridge and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the\r\nadjacent northeastern Pacific.  While the model guidance remains in\r\nexcellent agreement with this scenario, there has been a westward\r\nshift since the previous advisory, and the forecast track is also\r\nadjusted westward.  However, the new forecast track is a little to\r\nthe east of the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nNow that Patricia has become better organized, it should strengthen\r\nfor the next 48 hours or so until a combination of increasing shear\r\nand land interaction halts intensification.  The intensity guidance\r\nis forecasting a stronger peak intensity than previously, and the\r\nnew intensity forecast is adjusted upward accordingly.  The new\r\nforecast is in good agreement with the intensity consensus. However,\r\nsome of the models continue to forecast a stronger peak intensity,\r\nand it is possible that Patricia could rapidly intensify into a\r\nstronger system than currently forecast.  After landfall, Patricia\r\nshould quickly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of western\r\nMexico.\r\n\r\nThe current forecast track requires a hurricane warning for the\r\nsouthwestern coast of Mexico at this time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 13.1N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 13.8N 101.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 14.8N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 16.3N 104.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 18.1N 104.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 23.0N 104.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Patricia","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern of Patricia has improved significantly\r\nsince the previous advisory. A large CDO feature and a pronounced\r\ncurved convective band in the western semicircle has developed, and\r\na primitive eye feature has been noted in recent passive microwave\r\nimagery.  The last report from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicated a SFMR surface wind value of 56 kt, which arrived\r\nafter the previous advisory had been issued. That data, along with a\r\n2056Z UW-CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate of 59 kt and the improved\r\nsatellite appearance, is the justification for increasing the\r\nintensity to a conservative 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt. The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory track except to widen the turn\r\ntoward the northwest slightly in 24-36 hours. The new 18Z GFS model\r\nshifted slightly westward and is now very close to the ECMWF\r\nsolution. As a result, the official forecast track has been nudged\r\nslightly westward at the 24-, 36-, and 48-hours, which delays\r\nlandfall by another 6 hours or so. Otherwise, the track forecast\r\nreasoning remains unchanged. Patricia is expected to move\r\nwest-northwestward along the south side of a deep-layer ridge over\r\nthe Gulf of Mexico for the next 24 hours, followed by a\r\ngradual turn toward the northwest, and a turn toward the north at\r\n36-48 hours. The model guidance remains in excellent agreement on\r\nthis track scenario, and the official forecast lies between the\r\nGFS-ECMWF (GFEX) and TVCE consensus model tracks.\r\n\r\nThe improved organization of Patricia along with favorable\r\nenvironmental and oceanic conditions consisting of low vertical\r\nwind shear of less than 5 kt, a very moist mid-level environment,\r\nSSTs in excess of 30 deg C, and high upper-ocean heat content values\r\nin excess of 60 units support rapid intensification of the tropical\r\ncyclone. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the IVCN\r\nconsensus model through 24 hours and then is above the consensus\r\nafter that, following a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models. The\r\njustification for going above the IVCN consensus is due to the low\r\nbias caused by the HWRF model, which moves Patricia inland sooner,\r\nresulting in a much lower intensity at 48 hours. As a result, rapid\r\nintensification is explicitly forecast for the next 36 hours, making\r\nPatricia a major hurricane by the end of that period. The intensity\r\nis then leveled off at 48 hours due to the possibility of modest\r\nsoutherly wind shear and some land interaction affecting the cyclone\r\nas Patricia nears the coast of southwestern Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 13.5N 100.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 14.2N 102.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 15.5N 103.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 17.0N 104.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 19.0N 105.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 24.1N 103.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015\r\n\r\nPatricia has become significantly better organized overnight, with\r\nan eye evident on infrared imagery, and the system now has\r\nwell-defined convective banding features.  The initial intensity\r\nestimate is set at 75 kt, which is above the Dvorak estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB at 0600 UTC to account for the increased organization\r\nsince that time.  This is also in good agreement with the most\r\nrecent ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS.  Upper-level outflow is strong,\r\nas evidenced by the expanding cirrus canopy.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has been moving a little faster toward the\r\nwest-northwest, or around 295/15 kt.  There has not been much change\r\nto the track forecast philosophy.  Patricia is likely to move around\r\nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area\r\nduring the next day or so.  By late Friday, the system should turn\r\ntoward the north-northeast as it moves between the high and a\r\ntrough over extreme northwestern Mexico.  The official track\r\nforecast is nudged very slightly to the west to account for a\r\nslight westward shift in the GFS/ECMWF consensus.  This is also\r\nvery close to the overall dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe environment appears to be very conducive for strengthening for\r\nthe next 24 hours or so, with some increase in south-southwesterly\r\nshear and some mid-tropospheric drying later on Friday.  An earlier\r\n37 GHz GPM image showed a cyan ring around the eye, which often\r\npresages rapid intensification.  Given that, and the currently\r\nfavorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, rapid strengthening\r\n(30 kt over 24 h) is forecast through tonight followed by a slower\r\npace of intensification up to landfall.  This is in good agreement\r\nwith the latest DSHIPS prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 14.3N 102.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 15.3N 103.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 16.5N 105.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 20.3N 104.8W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 25.0N 101.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015\r\n\r\nPatricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent\r\nmicrowave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery.\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little\r\nconservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery.\r\nEven so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and\r\nprovide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the\r\nhurricane.\r\n\r\nThe environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid\r\nstrengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of\r\nvery low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index\r\nshows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours.\r\nThe official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near\r\nthe LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this\r\nevening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little\r\nchange in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as\r\nsouthwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia\r\nshould rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should\r\ndissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy has\r\nnot changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then\r\nnorthward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery\r\nof a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the\r\nhurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and an\r\namplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track has\r\nagain been shifted a little to the left to account for the initial\r\nmotion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the western\r\nside of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a\r\nhurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo\r\nCorrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area.\r\n\r\nNote that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and\r\nmoisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of\r\nlow pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of\r\nMexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major\r\nrainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more\r\ninformation, please refer to products from your local National\r\nWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane\r\nFriday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and\r\nproperty in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as\r\ntropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area\r\ntonight or early Friday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-10-22 18:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015\r\n\r\nThis Special Advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of\r\nPatricia, based on a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft SFMR\r\nobservation of 114 kt. The aircraft reported that the central\r\npressure was around 958 mb. Some of the wind radii have also been\r\nadjusted outward. This Special Advisory replaces the 1800 UTC\r\nintermediate advisory.\r\n\r\nThe environment is expected to be conducive for continued\r\nstrengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of\r\nvery low shear and SSTs above 30C. Some slight weakening is shown on\r\nFriday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase,\r\nand Patricia could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. After\r\nlandfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level\r\ncirculation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before\r\n72 hours.\r\n\r\nNo change was made to the track forecast from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane\r\nFriday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and\r\nproperty in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as\r\ntropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area\r\ntonight or early Friday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015\r\n\r\nPatricia has an impressive satellite presentation, with a small\r\n10 n mi wide eye surrounded by convective cloud tops of -80C to\r\n-90C. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found that the pressure had\r\nfallen to about 953 mb on their final pass through the center, after\r\nindicating earlier that the intensity had increased to 115 kt, which\r\nremains the intensity for this advisory. Further strengthening is\r\nindicated by much of the intensity guidance given that the shear\r\nremains low and the hurricane is over SSTs of 30-31C. The official\r\nforecast shows the cyclone peaking at 135 kt in 12 hours, followed\r\nby a little weakening prior to landfall as the shear increases, and\r\nthis is close to the latest intensity consensus aids. Patricia could\r\nalso undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall that\r\ncould result in fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After\r\nlandfall, the hurricane should quickly weaken over the high terrain\r\nand dissipate by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has begun turning a bit more poleward and slowed down\r\nduring the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of\r\n300/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with\r\nPatricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during\r\nthe next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level\r\nhigh centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then\r\nforecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an\r\namplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track is\r\nagain a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the new\r\nGFS/ECMWF consensus along on the western side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has extended\r\nthe hurricane warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which\r\nincludes the Puerto Vallarta area.\r\n\r\nModel guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and\r\nmoisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of\r\nlow pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of\r\nMexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major\r\nrainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more\r\ninformation, please refer to products from your local National\r\nWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely\r\ndangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations\r\nto protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be\r\ncompleted today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect\r\nthe warning area tonight or early Friday.\r\n\r\n2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is\r\nlikely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the\r\nMexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning\r\nlate tonight and continuing into Saturday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W  100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015\r\n\r\nPatricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming\r\nwarmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C\r\ncloud tops in the eyewall.  Subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nestimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air\r\nForce Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the\r\nintensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have\r\nintensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a\r\ncategory 5 hurricane during that time.  This is a remarkable feat,\r\nwith only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite\r\nera.  The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday\r\nafternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous\r\nhurricane through landfall.  The latest forecast is close to the\r\nprevious NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed.\r\nAfter landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high\r\nterrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 330/9.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during\r\nthe next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level\r\nhigh centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then\r\nforecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an\r\namplifying trough over northwestern Mexico.  The latest NHC\r\nforecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to\r\nbetter reflect the latest consensus guidance.\r\n\r\nModel guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and\r\nmoisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of\r\nlow pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of\r\nMexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major\r\nrainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more\r\ninformation, please refer to products from your local National\r\nWeather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely\r\ndangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations\r\nto protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be\r\ncompleted as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect\r\nthe warning area overnight or early Friday.\r\n\r\n2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is\r\nlikely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the\r\nMexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning\r\nlate tonight and continuing into Saturday.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  145 KT 165 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-10-23 17:30:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015\r\n\r\nThe purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant\r\nincrease in the intensity of the hurricane.  Reports from the Air\r\nForce Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an\r\nincredible rate since yesterday.  The plane measured peak 700-mb\r\nflight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this\r\nmay be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone.  Using the 90\r\npercent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed\r\nyields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern\r\nnorth Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.\r\nA dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of\r\n894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface\r\nwinds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)\r\ngives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks\r\nthe record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.\r\nSome fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall\r\nreplacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through\r\nlandfall this afternoon or evening.\r\n\r\nNo changes are made to the track forecast from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nThis special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory\r\nfor Patricia.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely\r\ndangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening.  Preparations\r\nto protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be\r\ncompleted as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect\r\nthe area.\r\n\r\n2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is\r\nlikely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the\r\nMexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing\r\ninto Saturday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W  160 KT 185 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W  160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015\r\n\r\nData from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate\r\nthat the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and\r\nSFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt.  This makes Patricia\r\nthe strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's\r\narea of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the\r\neastern North Pacific basins.  The minimum central pressure\r\nestimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for\r\nour AOR.  It seems incredible that even more strengthening could\r\noccur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery\r\nshows hints of a concentric eyewall developing.  If the trend\r\ntoward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the\r\nintensity to at least level off later today.  The official forecast\r\nshows only a little more strengthening before landfall.  Given the\r\nvery mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after\r\nlandfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than\r\npredicted by the normal inland decay rate.\r\n\r\nRecent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning\r\ntoward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt.  The\r\ntrack forecast scenario remains about the same.  Patricia should\r\ncontinue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level\r\nanticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to\r\nthe northwest tonight and Saturday.  The official track forecast is\r\nsomewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nThe global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone\r\nnear the Texas coast over the weekend.  Based on the predicted\r\nupper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature.\r\nHowever this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of\r\nmoisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally\r\nheavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico\r\ncoastal area within the next few days.  Refer to statements from\r\nlocal National Weather Service forecast offices for details.\r\n\r\nWe would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters\r\nfor their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking\r\nhurricane.  Clearly, without their data, we would never have known\r\njust how strong a tropical cyclone it was.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely\r\ndangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.\r\nPreparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning\r\narea should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as\r\ntropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area.\r\nResidents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning\r\narea should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be\r\ncatastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes\r\nlandfall.\r\n\r\n2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is\r\nlikely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the\r\nMexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing\r\ninto Saturday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W  175 KT 200 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W  180 KT 205 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the satellite appearance of Patricia\r\nsince the earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft left the hurricane.\r\nBased on this, the initial intensity remains 175 kt.  Some\r\nfluctuations in strength are possible before landfall, but it is\r\nexpected that Patricia will make landfall as a Category 5 hurricane\r\nin southwestern Mexico in less than 12 hours.  After landfall, a\r\ncombination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing\r\nshear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system\r\nlikely to dissipate completely after 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has turned northward since the previous advisory\r\nand the initial motion is now 005/9.  Patricia is about to\r\nrecurve into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its\r\neast and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the\r\nsouthwestern U. S.  These features should steer the cyclone\r\ngenerally north-northeastward across western and northern Mexico\r\nuntil dissipation occurs.  The new forecast track is an update of\r\nthe previous track.\r\n\r\nThe global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone\r\nnear the Texas coast over the weekend.  This system should be\r\nnon-tropical in nature.  However, this cyclone is expected to draw\r\nsignificant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could\r\nresult in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern\r\nGulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to\r\nstatements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely\r\ndangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening.\r\nPreparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning\r\narea should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as\r\ntropical storm conditions are spreading across the area.  Residents\r\nin low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area\r\nshould evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be\r\ncatastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes\r\nlandfall.\r\n\r\n2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is\r\nlikely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the\r\nMexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing\r\ninto Saturday.\r\n\r\n3. At this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very\r\nsmall area near the center - about 15 miles across.  A NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Patricia\r\nbefore landfall to see what changes in intensity and structure have\r\noccurred.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 17.6N 105.5W  175 KT 200 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 19.8N 105.1W  130 KT 150 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 22.9N 103.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 25.7N 101.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed\r\nlittle in intensity through about 1800 UTC.  The aircraft measured\r\n192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall,\r\nwith a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency\r\nMicrowave radiometer.  The central pressure estimated from an eye\r\ndropsonde was 879 mb.  Since that time, the eye has become\r\ncloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an\r\nouter wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an\r\nincreasing central pressure.  All of these indicate that the\r\nhurricane is weakening.  The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt,\r\nand this could be generous.  Patricia is expected to remain a\r\nCategory 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few\r\nhours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of\r\nMexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly\r\nweaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36\r\nhours, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nPatricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion\r\nof 015/12.  The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a\r\nmid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over\r\nnorthwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion\r\ntoward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's\r\nlife.  The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the\r\nprevious track based on the initial position and motion. It lies\r\nnear the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to\r\nthe left of the center after that time.\r\n\r\nThe global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone\r\nnear the Texas coast over the weekend.  This system should be\r\nnon-tropical in nature.  However, this cyclone is expected to draw\r\nsignificant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could\r\nresult in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern\r\nGulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to\r\nstatements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the\r\nhurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely\r\ndangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours.\r\nPreparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning\r\narea should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as\r\ntropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and\r\nhurricane conditions are about to occur.  Residents in low-lying\r\nareas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate\r\nimmediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to\r\nthe east of where the center makes landfall.\r\n\r\n2.  In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is\r\nlikely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the\r\nMexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing\r\ninto Saturday.\r\n\r\n3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the\r\nCategory 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the\r\ncenter - about 15 miles across.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W  165 KT 190 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite and surface data indicate that the center of Patricia made\r\nlandfall at about 615 PM CDT (2315 UTC) near Cuixmala, Mexico with\r\nmaximum sustained winds estimated at 145 kt/165 mph.  Since that\r\ntime, the eye has become obscured, with a large circular area of\r\ndeep convection continuing near the center.  The initial wind speed\r\nis reduced to 115 kt in agreement with the TAFB Dvorak\r\nclassification. Rapid weakening should continue as the cyclone\r\ninteracts with the mountains of Mexico. The forecast intensity is\r\nlargely based on the Decay-SHIPS model, but is a little lower than\r\nthat model due to the very high terrain.  Patricia should move to\r\nthe north-northeast and northeast ahead of a mid-level trough over\r\nthe south-central United States until it dissipates in a day or so.\r\n\r\nThe global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone\r\nnear the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be\r\nnon-tropical in nature.  However, this cyclone is expected to draw\r\nsignificant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could\r\nresult in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern\r\nGulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days.  Refer to\r\nstatements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for\r\ndetails.\r\n\r\nAn unconfirmed sustained wind report of 185 mph and a gust to 211\r\nmph was received from a NOAA/NWS Hydrometeorological Automated Data\r\nSystem (HADS) elevated station (295 ft) at Chamela-Cuixmala, Mexico\r\nnear the time of landfall.  This observation should be considered\r\nunofficial until it has been quality controlled.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Now that Patricia has moved inland, while the coastal threat is\r\ndecreasing, strong and damaging winds, especially at higher\r\nelevations, will persist through Saturday morning.\r\n\r\n2.  Very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash\r\nfloods and mudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco,\r\nColima, Michoacan and Guerrero through Saturday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 20.2N 104.6W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 22.7N 103.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 25.0N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 36H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake/Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Patricia","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015\r\n\r\nPatricia has been weakening rapidly while moving farther inland over\r\nthe rugged terrain of western Mexico.  Although the circulation\r\nis still intact, the associated convection has lost a significant\r\namount of organization.  Based on the degraded appearance, the\r\ninitial intensity is lowered to 65 kt.  Patricia is moving quickly\r\nnorth-northeastward at about 18 kt embedded in the flow between a\r\ntrough over northwestern Mexico and an anticyclone over the Gulf of\r\nMexico. This motion is expected to continue until Patricia\r\ndissipates over the mountains of Mexico by tonight.\r\n\r\nThe global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone\r\nnear the Texas coast over the weekend and this system should be\r\nnon-tropical in nature.  However, this system is expected to draw\r\nsignificant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could\r\nresult in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern\r\nGulf of Mexico coastal area within the next couple of days.  Refer\r\nto statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices\r\nfor details.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii in the southeastern quadrant has been expanded\r\noutward significantly based on recent ASCAT passes, which indicated\r\nthat tropical-storm-force winds were still occurring in a convective\r\nband near the coast of southwestern Mexico.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Even though Patricia is weakening quickly, strong and damaging\r\nwinds at higher elevations could persist through this morning.\r\n\r\n2.  Continued very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-\r\nthreatening flash floods and mudslides in the Mexican states of\r\nNayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero through today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 22.3N 103.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 24.6N 101.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Patricia","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015\r\n\r\nPatricia continues to weaken rapidly over the mountains of central\r\nMexico.  Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that\r\nthe mid- to upper-level center is now displaced to the northeast of\r\nthe surface center, and there is little organized convection\r\nassociated with the cyclone.  The initial intensity is reduced to\r\n30 kt based mainly on surface observations, and this could be\r\ngenerous.  Patricia is likely to degenerate to a remnant low or\r\ntrough during the next 6-12 hours as it moves northeastward into\r\nnortheastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nA low pressure area is developing over southern Texas, with the\r\nsystem forecast to move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later\r\nin the weekend.  This system should be non-tropical in nature.\r\nHowever, the low is likely to absorb the remnants of Patricia along\r\nwith the associated moisture, and this is expected to result in\r\nlocally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of\r\nMexico coastal area.  Refer to statements from local National\r\nWeather Service forecast offices for details on this system.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Even though Patricia is weakening rapidly, continued very heavy\r\nrainfall is likely to cause life- threatening flash floods and\r\nmudslides in the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,\r\nMichoacan and Guerrero through today.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 23.9N 101.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 26.0N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Patricia","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP202015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015\r\n400 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and surface observations from northern Mexico\r\nindicate that Patricia has degenerated to a remnant low pressure\r\narea characterized by no organized convection and a poorly defined\r\nsurface circulation.  The remnant low is expected to move\r\nnortheastward and weaken to a trough during the next several hours,\r\nwith the trough being absorbed by a non-tropical area of low\r\npressure over southern Texas tonight or on Sunday.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Patricia.  However, a threat of heavy rains continues over\r\nportions of Mexico and the northwestern coastal areas of the Gulf of\r\nMexico. Future information on these rains can be found in statements\r\nissued by local National Weather Service forecast offices and the\r\nMeteorological Service of Mexico.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 25.3N 100.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-11-18 16:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n1000 AM MDT WED NOV 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe circulation associated with the low pressure system located\r\nseveral hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja\r\nCalifornia has become well-defined overnight according to\r\nscatterometer data.  These data and first-light visible satellite\r\nimagery also indicate the that center of the cyclone is near the\r\nsoutheastern edge of large mass of cold-topped convection,\r\nsuggesting the presence of some southeasterly shear.  A Dvorak\r\nclassification of T2.0 from TAFB, along with the earlier\r\nscatterometer data, is used to set the intensity to 30 kt.\r\n\r\nSince the history of fixes on this system is short, the initial\r\nmotion estimate of 360/02 is somewhat uncertain.  A deep trough over\r\nthe central United States has created a significant weakness along\r\n110W, which has made for a weak steering environment around the\r\ndepression.  However, a weak mid-level anticyclone to the south of\r\nmainland Mexico has been imparting a slow northward motion.  This\r\nmotion should continue for another 24 hours, at which time a\r\nmid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to build\r\nwestward into the eastern Pacific when the central U.S. trough lifts\r\nout.  The building ridge should result in a northwestward and then a\r\nwest-northwestward track through 72 hours.  After that time, a\r\ntrough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast\r\nto eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in its recurvature\r\nin about 96 hours.  The official forecast track is on the left side\r\nof the guidance envelope, closest to the ECMWF and GFS solutions,\r\nand generally near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThere are mixed signals on the potential for intensification in the\r\nshort term.  Although the waters are anomalously warm, some\r\nsoutheasterly shear is likely to continue to affect the cyclone over\r\nthe next day or two, along with some drying of the lower to middle\r\ntroposphere.  These large-scale conditions suggest that some\r\nstrengthening should occur, but it likely would be tempered by these\r\ntwo negative factors.  Around 72 hours, the cyclone should encounter\r\nan environment of increasing south-southwesterly or southwesterly\r\nshear associated with the trough advancing from the west and rapidly\r\nweaken, likely becoming a remnant low by day 5, if not sooner.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is a little above the multi-model\r\nconsensus and closest to the ECMWF SHIPS output.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1600Z 13.0N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 13.3N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 13.8N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 14.8N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 15.8N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 16.4N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 18.1N 114.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 20.5N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-11-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n200 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015\r\n \r\nOverall, the cyclone's cloud pattern has changed little in\r\norganization since the previous advisory.  The center of the\r\ndepression is on the southeastern edge of a large cluster of deep\r\nconvection, indicative of a continuation of moderate southeasterly\r\nshear.  A well-defined swirl is also seen in visible satellite\r\nimagery, rotating around the south side of the estimated mean\r\ncenter. Satellite intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0 from TAFB\r\nand SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 30 kt.\r\n \r\nThe center has been moving erratically during the last 6 to 12\r\nhours, with fixes during this time indicating a nearly stationary\r\ninitial motion.  The tail of a deep mid- to upper-level trough over\r\nthe central United States extends southwestward to just north of the\r\ndepression, which has created a weakness near 110W.  The weakness\r\nhas created a weak steering environment that should persist for\r\nabout the next 12 to 24 hours and result in the depression's moving\r\nerratically or slowly northward around a weak mid-level high to the\r\neast.  A turn toward the northwest and then west-northwest is\r\nexpected after that time with an increase in forward speed when a\r\nmid-level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico builds westward into\r\nthe eastern Pacific to the north of the cyclone.  After that time, a\r\ntrough currently between 130W and 140W in the subtropics is forecast\r\nto eject eastward toward the cyclone and result in a northward turn\r\nin 96 hours.  The new track forecast is much faster than the\r\nprevious forecast and adjusted to the left, especially beyond 48\r\nhours, but is not as far west as the multi-model consensus.\r\n \r\nSHIPS model output indicates a lessening of southeasterly shear over\r\nthe depression within 24 hours, with the shear remaining relatively\r\nlow through about 72 hours.  Meanwhile, the lower- to mid-\r\ntropospheric moisture is forecast to decrease some and be only\r\nmarginally conducive for strengthening.  However, since the cyclone\r\nshould be over anomalously warm waters during this period,\r\nintensification is forecast, especially after the shear decreases.\r\nAfter 72 hours, a tremendous increase in southwesterly shear ahead\r\nof the trough advancing from the west should result in rapid\r\nweakening, with remnant low status likely in 96 to 120 hours.  The\r\nnew intensity forecast is a bit higher than the previous one in\r\nagreement with the latest SHIPS/LGEM guidance and remains slightly\r\nabove the multi-model consensus.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  18/2100Z 12.8N 107.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 13.4N 107.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 14.3N 108.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 15.2N 110.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 15.6N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 17.2N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 18.6N 115.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 20.5N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-11-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n800 PM MST WED NOV 18 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression is poorly organized with the low-level center well\r\nseparated from the mid-level circulation as indicated by several\r\nmicrowave images. Similar to earlier today, the low-level center\r\ncontinues to be located to the southeast of the weakening\r\nconvection, indicating that southeasterly shear still prevails.\r\nInitial intensity remains at 30 kt based on satellite estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThere is an opportunity for the depression to strengthen slightly\r\nduring the next day or two, while a narrow ridge builds to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone and the shear decreases. Most of the intensity\r\nmodels forecast some increase in the winds, and so does the NHC\r\nforecast. In fact, the NHC forecast still brings the depression to\r\ntropical storm status in about 12 to 24 hours. However, by the end\r\nof the forecast period, the effects of cooler waters and dry air\r\nshould result in weakening.\r\n\r\nThe center has moved very little during the past several hours, or\r\nperhaps it has has been drifting eastward and then northward around\r\na larger cyclonic gyre. Most of the global models build a ridge to\r\nthe north of the cyclone soon, and this steering pattern should\r\nforce the depression to begin to move on a west-northwest track\r\nearly Thursday. It should then continue with this general motion for\r\nthe next 2 to 3 days. After that time, a new mid-latitude trough is\r\nforecast to approach from the west, weakening the ridge and inducing\r\na northward motion. However, there is little confidence in the track\r\nforecast by the end of the period due to large spread in the model\r\ntracks. The NHC forecast follows closely the multi-model consensus,\r\nand is a little to the east of the previous NHC forecast beyond 3\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 13.2N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 13.7N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 14.6N 108.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 16.0N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 19.0N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 21.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-11-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n200 AM MST THU NOV 19 2015\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Twenty-One-E remains poorly organized.  While\r\nthe convection has increased during the past several hours, the\r\nlow-level center appears to be east of the southern end of the\r\nconvective area due to ongoing southeasterly shear.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates are 30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and thus the\r\ninitial intensity is unchanged from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 355/5.  A developing mid-\r\nto upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the depression\r\nshould result in a turn toward the west-northwest during the next\r\n24 hours, with this motion continuing through 48 hours.  After that\r\ntime, a mid-latitude westerly trough moving into the northeastern\r\nPacific should break the ridge with the depression turning\r\nnorthwestward and northward.  While the guidance is in general\r\nagreement with this scenario, after 72 hours there is still a\r\nsignificant spread as to where the depression may make the\r\nnorthward turn.  The new forecast track is a little to the south of\r\nthe multi-model consensus through 72 hours, then is a little east of\r\nit after that time.\r\n\r\nThe depression is expected to remain over warm sea surface\r\ntemperatures for the next three days or so, and the current shear\r\nis forecast to subside to low values between 12-48 hours.  However,\r\ndespite these apparently favorable conditions, the intensity\r\nguidance forecasts only modest strengthening during the next couple\r\nof days.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures should cause the cyclone to\r\nweaken.  The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous\r\nforecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 13.7N 106.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 14.4N 106.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 15.2N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 18.0N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 21.5N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-11-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n900 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the cyclone is better organized than this time\r\nyesterday.  First-light visible imagery indicates that the low-level\r\ncenter is underneath a circular mass of deep convection, and there\r\nhas been an increase in banding features and their associated\r\ncurvature.  The increase in organization could be a sign of some\r\ndecrease of the southeasterly shear that has been affecting the\r\ncyclone.  A Dvorak intensity estimate of T2.5 from TAFB and an\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT value of 2.9 is used to raise the initial intensity\r\nestimate to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nSome further decrease in southeasterly shear is likely through\r\nearly Friday.  With large-scale environmental conditions otherwise\r\nlargely favorable, intensification is shown through about 24 to 36\r\nhours.  The window of opportunity for strengthening should be short-\r\nlived though, since west-southwesterly shear is forecast to increase\r\nby 48 hours when Rick moves north of the upper-level ridge axis.\r\nThe shear should become prohibitively high by 72 hours ahead of a\r\nshortwave trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics being ejected\r\neastward toward the cyclone.  The result should be rapid weakening,\r\nand remnant low status is likely by 96 hours, if not sooner.\r\nDissipation is now shown by 120 hours. The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is slightly above the previous one, and shows and earlier\r\npeak, with remnant low status indicated sooner.\r\n\r\nThe center has been difficult to locate but seems to be slightly\r\nfarther east than previous estimates based on a couple of microwave\r\npasses and visible imagery. The best estimate of the initial motion\r\nis north or 360/06. Global models show mid-level ridging building to\r\nthe north of the cyclone today, and the depression should be respond\r\nby moving more quickly toward the northwest and then west-northwest\r\nover the next day or two.  Rick should reach the western periphery\r\nof this ridge in 3 to 4 days and begin to move more poleward, but\r\nwill likely dissipate before responding to the trough in the\r\nsubtropics moving toward it.  The new track forecast is right of the\r\nprevious one, primarily due to the more eastward initial position\r\nestimate.\r\n\r\nOnly 3 tropical storms have formed later than this calendar date in\r\nthe eastern North Pacific since reliable records began in the early\r\n1970s.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 14.7N 105.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 15.2N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 16.2N 108.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 17.1N 110.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 17.7N 112.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 19.0N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-11-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n200 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015\r\n\r\nRick is exhibiting a shear pattern, with the low-level center of the\r\ncyclone estimated to be near the southeastern edge of a curved\r\nconvective band over the northwestern semicircle of the\r\ncirculation.  A 1616 UTC ASCAT-A overpass indicated peak\r\nuncontaminated winds of 36 kt, so the initial intensity is held at\r\n35 kt.  Some further reduction in southeasterly shear over the\r\ncyclone should occur tonight or early Friday while other large-\r\nscale factors remain generally favorable, which could allow for some\r\nadditional intensification over the next 24 hours or so.  However,\r\nthe broad nature of the cyclone's circulation shown by the\r\nscatterometer data is most likely to result in only slow\r\nstrengthening before a substantial increase in west-southwesterly\r\nshear occurs in about 36 to 48 hours.  Even higher shear is expected\r\nover Rick by 72 hours once the storm gains more latitude\r\nand a trough in the eastern Pacific subtropics nears the cyclone\r\nfrom the west.  A rapid decoupling of the cyclone should occur not\r\nlong after that time, and remnant low status is indicated in 96\r\nhours, though this could occur sooner.  The new intensity forecast\r\nis is a bit lower than the previous one and slightly lower than the\r\nmulti-model consensus through 48 hours.\r\n\r\nASCAT passes were quite helpful in determining that the location of\r\nRick's low-level center was farther south and west than previously\r\nestimated.  Those fixes indicate that Rick has turned northwestward\r\nwith an initial motion estimate of 320/07.  A mid-level ridge over\r\nmainland Mexico should build north of Rick tonight and tomorrow,\r\nresulting in a west-northwestward turn with an increase in forward\r\nspeed.  Once Rick reaches the western periphery of this ridge in\r\nabout 3 days, a more poleward track is forecast until dissipation.\r\nThe new track forecast is adjusted back to the left, primarily due\r\nthe center re-location.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 14.8N 107.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 15.5N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 16.2N 109.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 16.9N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 17.5N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 19.0N 114.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 21.2N 115.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-11-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n800 PM MST THU NOV 19 2015\r\n\r\nRick's cloud pattern has eroded some during the past 6 hours with\r\npreviously solid bands of convection in the northern semicircle\r\nhaving become more fragmented during the past few hours.\r\nIn addition, numerous small arc cloud lines have been noted\r\npropagating away from the cyclone, which is indicative of dry\r\nmid-level air having penetrated into the inner core region. This\r\nsupposition is further supported by a 20/0006 UTC AMSU pass\r\nindicating only a narrow fragmented band of convection is present\r\nin the northwestern quadrant of the storm. Therefore, the initial\r\nintensity of 35 kt remains unchanged for this advisory, which is\r\nlower than the available satellite intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/09 kt and is based primarily on\r\npassive microwave satellite data. A mid-level ridge over central\r\nMexico is forecast to build westward to the north and east of Rick\r\nduring the next 24-36 hours, while a large upper-level low located\r\nnear 27N 138W is expected to fill and gradually open up into a broad\r\ntrough by 48-72 hours. The combination of these two steering\r\nmechanisms should keep Rick moving west-northwestward for the next\r\n48 hours, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn\r\ntoward the northwest and north at 72 h and 96 h, respectively. The\r\nofficial forecast track was only nudged slightly to the left of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle of NHC\r\ntrack guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nRick is forecast to move into a weak vertical wind shear regime\r\nduring the next 24-36 hours while remaining over SSTs of 29 deg C.\r\nThese favorable conditions would normally support intensification of\r\na tropical cyclone. However, the ragged and elongated inner-core\r\nwind field, coupled with additional entrainment of drier mid-level\r\nair, is expected to inhibit any significant development and\r\norganization of deep convection. By 48 hours and beyond, an increase\r\nin southwesterly vertical wind shear to more than 25 kt is forecast\r\nto induce gradual weakening, with Rick becoming a remnant low by 96\r\nhours when the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters at that\r\ntime. Rick is expected to dissipate day 5, if not sooner. NHC\r\nintensity forecast is a little lower than the previous advisory and\r\nremains below the multi-model consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 15.2N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 15.9N 109.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 16.5N 111.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 17.2N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 17.8N 113.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 21.6N 115.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-11-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n200 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015\r\n\r\nRick is sending mixed signals tonight with regard to its\r\norganization and intensity.  On one hand, the convective banding is\r\na little better defined, and Dvorak T-numbers are now T3.0 from SAB\r\nand T2.5 from TAFB.  On the other hand, recent scatterometer data\r\nindicate that the maximum winds remain about 35 kt, with the\r\ntropical-storm-force winds confined to a small area west of the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 295/11 kt.  A\r\nmid-level ridge that extends westward across central Mexico is\r\nforecast to build farther westward over the Pacific waters during\r\nthe next 24 hours, which should keep the cyclone on a west-\r\nnorthwestward course for the next couple of days.  By Sunday, the\r\nwestern extent of the ridge will be eroded by a shortwave trough,\r\ncausing Rick to turn gradually northwestward and northward on days\r\n3-5.  The track models all agree on this general scenario, but the\r\noverall guidance envelope has shifted westward from the previous\r\ncycle, especially beyond 36 hours.  Therefore, the updated NHC track\r\nforecast is also shifted westward and lies very close to the TVCE\r\nmodel consensus and the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer shear near Rick is very low at the moment and should\r\nremain generally light for the next 36-48 hours.  In addition, sea\r\nsurface temperatures are sufficiently warm for intensification.\r\nHowever, a major limiting factor appears to be the presence of\r\nmid-level dry air, with the 700-500 mb relative humidity expected to\r\nremain around 50 percent for the next few days.  Therefore, only\r\nslight strengthening is anticipated in the short term.  After 48\r\nhours, a marked increase in southwesterly shear should cause Rick to\r\nweaken and degenerate to a remnant low, possibly as early as 72\r\nhours, when the associated deep convection is sheared away from the\r\nlow-level center.  The latest global models suggest that the remnant\r\nlow may now last through 120 hours.  There is not much spread among\r\nthe intensity models, and the official intensity forecast mainly\r\nfollows the IVCN model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 15.9N 109.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 16.5N 110.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 17.1N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 17.6N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 18.1N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 20.1N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 22.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0600Z 22.5N 117.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-11-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n800 AM MST FRI NOV 20 2015\r\n\r\nRick's convective pattern remains rather unimpressive, with some\r\nragged banding in the western semicircle and a small area of more\r\nconcentrated convection south of the estimated center position. The\r\ninitial intensity remains 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and\r\nthe latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB. While Rick is\r\nstill situated over warm waters in a low shear environment, mid-\r\nlevel dry air and relatively meager instability appear to be\r\nlimiting intensification. All of the intensity guidance suggests\r\nonly modest strengthening in the next 24 to 36 hours before the\r\nshear increases by 48 hours. The increasing shear and a track over\r\ncooler waters should result in Rick weakening to a remnant low by\r\nday 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/10. Rick is forecast to continue\r\nmoving west-northwestward for the next 36 hours while being steered\r\nby a mid-level ridge centered over southwestern Mexico. After that\r\ntime, the ridge will weaken as a deep-layer trough amplifies to the\r\nnorthwest of the tropical cyclone, and Rick should recurve late in\r\nthe period, albeit as a shallow cyclone. The new NHC track forecast\r\nis close to the previous one through 48 hours and then is a little\r\nto the left and slower, trending toward the weaker ECMWF solution.\r\nThe official forecast is much slower than the latest GFS solution at\r\ndays 3 through 5, which appears too strong with Rick at those times.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 16.1N 110.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 16.7N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 17.3N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 17.8N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 18.6N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 20.5N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 21.5N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1200Z 22.5N 117.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-11-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n200 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of Rick is now exposed to the northwest of the remaining\r\ndeep convection, and banding features have weakened during the past\r\nfew hours. A partial ASCAT-B pass from 1650Z showed a few 30-35 kt\r\nwind vectors to the east of the center. The initial intensity\r\nremains 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB\r\nand SAB, and this could be a little generous. Dry mid-level air\r\ncontinues to prevent Rick from intensifying, and much of the\r\nintensity guidance shows little change in strength during the next\r\n24 to 36 hours. After that time, the shear is forecast to increase\r\nand Rick will begin moving over cooler SSTs, which should result in\r\nremnant low status in 2 to 3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the latest intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nRick has moved to the left of the previous forecast, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is a more confident 285/10 since the center is now\r\nexposed. With the more westerly initial position and motion and a\r\nweaker trend in the guidance, the track models have shown a large\r\nwestward shift this cycle. Rick should continue moving generally\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn toward\r\nthe northwest in 3 days as the ridge to the north weakens. The\r\nremnant of Rick is then forecast to move slowly northward or meander\r\nbefore dissipating in about 5 days. The new NHC track is about a\r\ndegree to the left of the previous one, and is close to a blend of\r\nthe latest GFS and ECMWF model forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 16.3N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 16.6N 112.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 17.5N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 18.4N 117.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 20.5N 119.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 21.5N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-11-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n800 PM MST FRI NOV 20 2015\r\n\r\nRick remains a poorly organized tropical cyclone, with the low-level\r\ncenter exposed to the northwest of a small area of deep convection.\r\nThe initial wind speed estimate remains 35 kt, following the\r\nDvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but it would not be surprising\r\nif the system were a little weaker.  The continued influence of dry\r\nstable air and an increase in shear should prevent strengthening,\r\nor cause some weakening, of Rick during the next day or so.  In\r\nabout 2 days, Rick is forecast to become a remnant low when it\r\nis expected to be over cool waters and in hostile atmospheric\r\nconditions.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest\r\nconsensus prediction.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that the center of Rick has moved a little\r\nto the north and is slightly faster than the previous track, and\r\nthe latest initial motion estimate is 290/11 kt.  A motion toward\r\nthe west-northwest to northwest is expected during the next couple\r\nof days while the cyclone moves along the southwestern periphery of\r\na mid-level ridge.  After that time, the shallow cyclone will likely\r\ndrift northwestward or northward when it becomes embedded in weak\r\nsteering currents.  The latest NHC track forecast is slightly to the\r\nnorth of the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise\r\nlargely an update.  This forecast is in best agreement with GFEX, a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 16.7N 112.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 17.0N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 17.4N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 18.2N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 19.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 21.0N 119.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 21.8N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-11-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n200 AM MST SAT NOV 21 2015\r\n\r\nRick has been moving quickly west-northwestward into a drier air\r\nmass, with all its associated deep convection lagging to the south\r\nand southeast of the low-level center.  The initial intensity\r\nremains 35 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 2.5 from TAFB and SAB,\r\nbut if the convective organization doesn't improve, these numbers\r\nare likely to fall below the tropical storm threshold soon.\r\nVertical shear is expected to increase substantially in about 36\r\nhours, and the cyclone will continue to move toward cooler water and\r\ninto an environment where the mid-level relative humidity is less\r\nthan 50 percent.  Therefore, Rick will likely weaken to a tropical\r\ndepression sometime during the next 24 hours and degenerate to a\r\nremnant low by 48 hours.  The updated NHC intensity forecast closely\r\nfollows the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nA mid-level ridge extending westward from southern and central\r\nMexico is steering Rick west-northwestward with an initial motion\r\nof 285/10 kt.  A mid- to upper-level trough located between 125W\r\nand 140W is expected to move eastward and erode the western extent\r\nof the ridge during the next day or two, causing Rick to slow down\r\nand turn northwestward.  After 48 hours, the remnant low should\r\nturn northward and slow down further in a weaker lower-tropospheric\r\nflow regime.  No changes were required to the previous NHC track\r\nforecast, and the new one is close to the multi-model consensus of\r\nthe dynamical models, with extra weight given to the typically\r\nskillful ECMWF model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 16.9N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 17.2N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 19.0N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 20.1N 118.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 21.8N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-11-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n700 AM PST SAT NOV 21 2015\r\n\r\nThe center of Rick continues to be exposed to the northwest of\r\nbursting area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 35\r\nkt, perhaps generously, based on the latest Dvorak estimate from\r\nTAFB. The SHIPS model based off GFS model fields shows that the\r\nmid-level relative humidity is now below 50 percent and shear will\r\nbe increasing above 20 kt in the next 24 to 48 hours. These factors,\r\nalong with cooling SSTs along the track, should result in Rick\r\nweakening to a depression later today, and becoming a remnant low in\r\nabout 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/11, and Rick should gradually\r\nslow down and turn poleward during the next 2 to 3 days as the ridge\r\nto the north weakens due to an eastward moving mid/upper-level\r\ntrough. Late in the period, the shallow remnant of Rick should move\r\nslowly northward to northeastward in weak low-level flow prior to\r\ndissipation. The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the\r\nprevious one and is close to the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 17.3N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 17.7N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 19.8N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 20.8N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 22.0N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-11-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015\r\n\r\nMicrowave data and visible imagery indicate that the center of\r\nRick is located farther south than estimated on the previous\r\nadvisory. This places the center a little closer to the deep\r\nconvection, but there remains little in the way of convective\r\nbanding. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a blend of\r\nthe latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows dry, stable air working its way into the\r\nnorthwestern quadrant of the cyclone. This dry air plus shear\r\nincreasing above 20 kt tonight should result in weakening, and Rick\r\nis expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours. The remnant low\r\nshould gradually spin down and dissipate in about 4 days.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Rick has taken a westward jog during\r\nthe past 6 to 12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10.\r\nDespite this, the overall synoptic reasoning has not changed, and\r\nRick will gradually recurve in the next 2-3 days as it moves around\r\nthe western edge of the subtropical ridge. As Rick becomes a shallow\r\nremnant low, it should move slowly northward until dissipation in\r\nthe weak low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is to the left\r\nof the previous one due to the initial position and motion, and is\r\nclose to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 16.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 17.3N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 18.5N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 19.7N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 20.7N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Rick","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-11-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n700 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015\r\n\r\nRick has not changed much since yesterday.  Visible satellite images\r\nfrom earlier this evening and microwave data indicate that the\r\nlow-level center of the storm is located to the northwest of a\r\npulsing area of deep convection.  The initial intensity estimate is\r\nagain held at 35 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the\r\nUniversity of Wisconsin.\r\n\r\nDry and stable air has been entraining into the northwestern side of\r\nthe circulation for some time.  The continued effects of dry\r\nair, increasing shear, and cooler waters should result in Rick\r\nweakening during the next day or so.  The cyclone is expected to\r\nbecome a remnant low by Sunday night or early Monday when it moves\r\nover sea surface temperatures lower than 26 degrees C and is\r\nembedded in hostile atmospheric conditions.  The remnant low is\r\nexpected to gradually weaken and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nRick continues to move westward at about 10 kt, and the system is\r\na little left of the previous track prediction.  The guidance\r\ncontinues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down\r\nduring the next couple of days as the mid-level ridge to the north\r\nof the storm breaks down.  Little motion is expected beyond a\r\ncouple of days when the shallow cyclone becomes embedded in weak\r\nsteering currents.  The NHC official track forecast is shifted to\r\nthe west of the previous one, and is in best agreement with a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 17.0N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 17.8N 118.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 20.7N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 21.3N 121.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rick","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-11-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n100 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015\r\n\r\nRick is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. Convective cloud\r\ntops have warmed considerably since the previous advisory, and the\r\noverall convective pattern has become disheveled looking with the\r\nlow-level circulation center now fully exposed more than 60 nmi to\r\nthe northwest of the closest convective cells. The initial intensity\r\nhas been decreased to 30 kt based on 25-kt to 30-kt satellite\r\nintensity estimates, making Rick a tropical depression.\r\n\r\nRick has made the expected turn toward the west-northwest and is now\r\nmoving 290/10 kt. There is essentially no significant change to the\r\nprevious forecast track reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance\r\ncontinues to show Rick turning northwestward and slowing down later\r\ntoday, followed by a northward drift on Monday and Tuesday as the\r\ncyclone continues to weaken, becoming more vertically shallow and\r\ntrapped in weak steering currents within a break in a low- to\r\nmid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory track and lies close to the consensus of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF model tracks.\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite images indicate that dry and stable air has now\r\nwrapped all the way around the cyclone and has penetrated into the\r\ninner-core region, effectively cutting off convective development\r\nthere. The combination of even drier air and cooler sea-surface\r\ntemperatures, along with southwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nincreasing to more than 30 kt by late tonight or Monday morning, is\r\nexpected to produce further weakening for the rest of the forecast\r\nperiod. Rick should become a remnant low by tonight or early Monday,\r\nand dissipate by 96 h, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast\r\nclosely follows the the IVCN consensus intensity model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 17.3N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 18.0N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 19.2N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 20.3N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 20.9N 120.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 21.3N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Rick","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-11-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n700 AM PST SUN NOV 22 2015\r\n\r\nDry air and southwesterly shear has taken its toll on the tropical\r\ncyclone since yesterday.  Deep convection associated with Rick has\r\nbecome well separated from the low-level center and diminished\r\novernight, with the tropical cyclone becoming a swirl of mostly\r\nlow- to mid-level clouds.  The initial wind speed remains 30 kt,\r\nwhich is a blend of the Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.\r\nIncreasing shear, dry air, and decreasing sea surface temperatures\r\nare expected to cause the cyclone to spin down during the next\r\ncouple of days, and Rick is forecast to become a remnant low later\r\ntoday.  The remnant circulation should dissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nRick is moving northwestward or 305/8 kt.  The cyclone is predicted\r\nto turn north-northwestward and northward during the next 24 to 36\r\nhours as it is steered between a shortwave trough to its west and a\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge over western Mexico.  After that time, the\r\nlow-level steering currents are expected to weaken, and the remnant\r\nlow should become nearly stationary.  The updated NHC forecast track\r\nis similar to the previous advisory and is near the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 17.8N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 18.6N 119.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 19.7N 120.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 20.5N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 21.0N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 20.7N 119.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Rick","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-11-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP212015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015\r\n100 PM PST SUN NOV 22 2015\r\n\r\nRick has become a swirl of low clouds that has been devoid of\r\norganized deep convection for more than 12 hours.  As a result,\r\nRick is now a post-tropical remnant low, and this will be the\r\nlast NHC advisory on this system.  The initial intensity remains\r\n30 kt, which is in agreement with the latest Dvorak current\r\nintensity estimate from TAFB.  Dry air, strong southwesterly shear,\r\nand cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of the\r\nlow should cause weakening during the next couple of days, and\r\ndissipation is expected within 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt.  The low should turn\r\nnorthward during the next day or so, then become nearly stationary\r\nas the low-level steering flow weakens. After that time, the remnant\r\nlow is forecast to turn eastward or southeastward before dissipation\r\noccurs.  The new NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the\r\nlatest global model guidance and is similar to the previous\r\nNHC advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 18.1N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 18.9N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 19.8N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 20.5N 120.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2015-11-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n300 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015\r\n\r\nThe first few visible images of the day revealed that the\r\ncirculation associated with the low pressure area south of Mexico\r\nhad become better defined and likely received some help from an\r\nongoing gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  The center of\r\nthe circulation appears to have formed beneath a small cluster of\r\ndeep convection, with elongated convective banding extending to the\r\nnorth and northeast.  The initial intensity is 30 kt based on\r\nDvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5 from SAB.\r\n\r\nSince the center seems to have just formed, the initial motion is a\r\nsomewhat uncertain 265/16 kt.  The depression is being pushed\r\nquickly westward by the gap wind event, and it should begin to slow\r\ndown a bit as it moves farther away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward by 36 hours and\r\nthen recurve toward the north and north-northeast on days 4 and 5\r\nas it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The\r\ntrack models are in generally good agreement on this scenario, with\r\nthe exception of the HWRF model, which never really shows full\r\nrecurvature.  The NHC official track forecast is very close to a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nThe depression is located within a narrow zone of low shear and\r\nover very warm sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius.\r\nThese conditions are expected to be conducive for strengthening\r\nduring the next 72 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to reach\r\nhurricane intensity in a couple of days.  The SHIPS and LGEM models\r\nare fairly aggressive, bringing the depression just below major\r\nhurricane strength in about 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nnot quite as high as those models for the time being, but it is\r\nslightly higher than the IVCN model consensus through 72 hours.\r\nAfter that time, strong southwesterly shear should cause the system\r\nto weaken quickly, and it could be back to tropical depression\r\nstatus by day 5.  However, the intensity forecast at the end of the\r\nforecast period is of low confidence.\r\n\r\nAlthough there are no 12-foot seas directly associated with the\r\ndepression, there are high seas to its northeast due to gales\r\nover the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  Refer to High Seas Forecasts issued\r\nby the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO\r\nheader FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml for more\r\ninformation.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 10.8N 102.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 10.8N 105.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 11.4N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 12.4N 109.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 13.2N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 16.0N 112.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 24.5N 108.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2015-11-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n900 PM CST MON NOV 23 2015\r\n\r\nThe depression is gradually becoming better organized.  The cloud\r\npattern consists of a small central dense overcast with fragmented\r\nbands to the north and northeast of the center.  The latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T2.0/30 kt from SAB, and\r\nADT values of T2.3/33 kt from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\r\nBased on these data, the initial intensity is 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone lies on the south side of a mid-level high pressure\r\nsystem, and is moving quickly westward at about 17 kt, likely\r\ninfluenced to some degree by the Tehuantepec gap wind event.  The\r\nridge is expected to shift eastward during the next couple of days,\r\nwhich should cause the system to slow down and turn\r\nwest-northwestward on Tuesday and northwestward on Wednesday.  After\r\nthat time, a northward and northeastward motion toward the coast of\r\nMexico is expected when the system moves in the flow between the\r\nridge and a large trough.  The track models remain in fair\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the NHC official track forecast\r\nis largely an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nStrengthening seems likely during the next few days while the\r\ncyclone remains over very warm sea surface temperatures of 29-30\r\ndegrees C, and in an environment of less than 10 kt of shear.\r\nThe intensity models respond to these conducive conditions in\r\nshowing steady intensification, and the NHC intensity forecast lies\r\nnear the upper end of the guidance envelope given the expected\r\nfavorable conditions.  After about 3 days, southwesterly shear is\r\nforecast to significantly increase and mid-level humidity values are\r\nexpected to fall.  These hostile conditions should cause a quick\r\nrate of weakening when the cyclone approaches Mexico, although\r\nthere continues to be a significant uncertainty in the intensity\r\nforecast around 5 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 10.9N 104.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 11.4N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 12.0N 108.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 12.8N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 13.8N 111.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 17.1N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 21.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 25.0N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandra","Adv":3,"Date":"2015-11-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n300 AM CST TUE NOV 24 2015\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized during\r\nthe past 6 hours, with a large curved convective cloud band with\r\ntops colder than -80C and considerable lightning activity having\r\ndeveloped in the northern semicircle. In addition, a small CDO-like\r\nfeature has recently developed over the low-level center. The\r\ninitial intensity has been increased to 40 kt based on blend of\r\nsatellite intensity estimates of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T2.9/43 kt\r\nfrom UW-CIMMS ADT at 0600 UTC, and the improved convective\r\nappearance since that time. This makes Sandra the 18th named storm\r\nof the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.\r\n\r\nSandra's initial motion is now 275/11 kt. During the next 3-4 days,\r\nSandra is forecast to gradually slow down as it moves around the\r\nwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends\r\nfrom the southwestern Gulf of Mexico westward across central Mexico.\r\nOn days 4 and 5, the cyclone is expected to turn northeastward and\r\naccelerate ahead of a strong mid-latitude trough that will be moving\r\neastward toward the western coasts of the United States and Baja\r\nCalifornia. The NHC model guidance remains good agreement on this\r\ndeveloping steering flow scenario, and the official forecast track\r\nlies close to the consensus model, TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is a little less straightforward than the\r\ntrack forecast. Only the HWRF model shows Sandra reaching an\r\nintensity of 75 kt; all of the other guidance is below that value.\r\nThis is something of an enigma given that the cyclone will be (a)\r\nmoving over SSTs greater than 29C, (b) in a moist mid-level\r\nenvironment consisting of humidity values greater than 75 percent,\r\nand (c) in a very low vertical shear environment of less than 5 kt.\r\nThese three factors typically would result in rapid intensification,\r\nespecially since it appears that Sandra is in the process of\r\ndeveloping a tighter inner-core wind field. The GFS-based SHIPS\r\nintensity model indicates that the main inhibiting factors are the\r\nshear direction and warmer-than-average 200 mb temperatures.\r\nHowever, the latter doesn't appear to be a factor given the very\r\ncold cloud tops currently noted. The global models are all\r\nforecasting a pronounced upper-level anticyclone and a favorable\r\noutflow pattern to develop over Sandra in the 24-48 hour period,\r\nwhich should negate the negative shear direction parameter. As a\r\nresult, at least climatological development is forecast through 48\r\nhours. By day 4, strong southwesterly shear in excess of 30 kt is\r\nexpected to induce rapid weakening as Sandra recurves into the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to\r\nthe previous advisory, but now lies above all of the available\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 10.8N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 11.3N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 12.0N 108.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 12.9N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 14.1N 110.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 17.7N 110.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 22.0N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 25.5N 106.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandra","Adv":4,"Date":"2015-11-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 AM MST TUE NOV 24 2015\r\n\r\nSandra continues to gain organization, with the low-level center\r\nembedded beneath a growing CDO feature, and an elongated convective\r\nband wrapping around the northern semicircle.  In addition, a 0716\r\nUTC GPM overpass indicated that the cyclone has tight inner-core low\r\ncloud lines.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates\r\nrange from T2.5/35 kt to T3.5/55 kt, and the maximum winds are\r\ntherefore raised to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe synoptic pattern consists of a mid-level ridge extending\r\nwestward from southern Mexico to 110W and a low-amplitude trough\r\nnorth of 25N over the Pacific Ocean, with Sandra moving 280/11 kt\r\naround the southwestern portion of the ridge.  The trough is\r\nforecast to amplify and will cause Sandra to recurve around the\r\nridge during the next several days.  So far, the numerical models\r\nhave remained in excellent agreement for much of the forecast\r\nperiod, with only minor speed differences between days 3 through 5\r\nwhen Sandra gets picked up by the trough.  The NHC official track\r\nwas shifted only slightly westward beyond day 3 to fall closer to\r\nthe various model consensus aids, but otherwise no significant\r\nchanges to the previous forecast were required.\r\n\r\nThe environment appears well suited for Sandra to continue\r\nstrengthening during the next 48 hours.  Sea surface temperatures\r\nalong the forecast track will be between 29 and 30 degrees Celsius,\r\nand the vertical shear is expected to be less than 10 kt for the\r\nnext two days.  Therefore, steady strengthening is shown through 48\r\nhours, with Sandra potentially peaking as a category 2 hurricane\r\naround that time.  This forecast is near the HWRF and Florida State\r\nSuperensemble, which are at the upper end of the guidance envelope.\r\nQuicker strengthening than what is shown in the official forecast is\r\npossible, with the Rapid Intensification Index showing about a 50\r\npercent chance of a 30-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours.\r\nAfter 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to increase\r\nsubstantially, which should cause Sandra to weaken quickly while it\r\napproaches the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 11.2N 106.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 11.8N 107.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 12.6N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 13.6N 110.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 15.1N 111.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 19.1N 110.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 23.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 27.5N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandra","Adv":5,"Date":"2015-11-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2015\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery suggests that Sandra is strengthening\r\nquickly.  Deep convection has recently blossomed in a ring around a\r\nrelatively clear region near the center, with a warm spot also\r\nnoted in infrared imagery.  Dvorak intensity estimates have risen to\r\nT3.0/45 kt from SAB, T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and T4.0/65 kt\r\nfrom the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Therefore, the initial intensity is raised\r\nto 55 kt.\r\n\r\nSandra has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n290/12 kt.  A mid-level ridge currently extends from southern Mexico\r\nwestward over the Pacific Ocean but an amplifying mid- to upper-\r\nlevel trough near the U.S. west coast should erode the western\r\nportion of the ridge during the next 24-48 hours.  This should cause\r\nSandra to recurve to the north and northeast during the forecast\r\nperiod.  For the most part, the track guidance has been consistent\r\nand has not shifted much to the right or left from cycle to cycle.\r\nHowever, the latest guidance has trended a little faster than in\r\nprevious runs.  The updated NHC track forecast is pushed a little\r\nfaster close to the model consensus aids, and also a little bit\r\nwestward after 48 hours in deference to the ECMWF model, which is on\r\nthe western edge of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nBased on the recent evolution of Sandra's cloud pattern, it appears\r\nthe storm could be going through a period of rapid intensification.\r\nSandra is over sea surface temperatures around 30 degrees Celsius\r\nand in an environment of low shear, and the SHIPS RI index is around\r\n50 percent for a 30-kt increase in winds during the next 24 hours.\r\nTherefore, the NHC official forecast now shows the cyclone reaching\r\nhurricane intensity tonight and peaking as a category 2 hurricane\r\nin 36-48 hours.  Thereafter, vertical shear is expected to increase\r\nfrom around 10 kt at 48 hours to 50-60 kt at 96 hours, which should\r\ncause Sandra to weaken quickly as it approaches the coast of\r\nMexico.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the\r\nprevious forecast and is close to the HWRF model, which shows the\r\nhighest peak intensity among the guidance suite.\r\n\r\nIt is too soon to know exactly how Sandra will affect portions of\r\nthe southern Baja California peninsula or the west coast of\r\nmainland Mexico.  However, a watch may be required on Wednesday,\r\nand interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Sandra.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 11.9N 107.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 12.5N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 13.5N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 15.1N 110.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 16.9N 111.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 21.1N 110.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 25.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":6,"Date":"2015-11-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 PM MST TUE NOV 24 2015\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Sandra has continued to strengthen\r\nduring the past several hours.  The deep convection now wraps\r\naround the center, and there have been occasional attempts at eye\r\nformation.  The initial intensity is increased to 65 kt based on a\r\nsatellite intensity estimate from TAFB, a 65 kt estimate from the\r\nCIMSS ADT, and an earlier CIMSS AMSU estimate of 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/10.  The hurricane is currently being\r\nsteered by a mid-level ridge extending from southern Mexico\r\nwestward over the Pacific.  However, a strong deep-layer trough\r\nmoving southeastward over the western United States should erode the\r\nridge north of Sandra during the next couple of days.  This\r\nevolution should cause the cyclone to turn northward in about 48\r\nhours and recurve northeastward into the westerlies thereafter.\r\nThere has been little change in the track guidance since the last\r\nadvisory.  Thus, the new track forecast is similar to the previous\r\nforecast in calling for Sandra to pass near the southern end of the\r\nBaja California Peninsula in about 72 hours, followed by landfall in\r\nnorthwestern Mexico between 72-96 hours.  The new forecast lies near\r\nthe center of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nSandra has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours, and this\r\ntrend is likely to continue as the hurricane remains in a light\r\nvertical shear environment and over warm sea surface temperatures.\r\nThe Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model shows better than\r\na 60 percent chance of a 40 kt increase in strength during the next\r\n24 hours and an almost 80 percent chance of a 25 kt increase.  Based\r\non this, the intensity forecast has been adjusted upward to show\r\nSandra becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, and this part of the\r\nforecast could be conservative.  After 36 hours, the cyclone is\r\nexpected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear, and all\r\nof the guidance forecasts rapid weakening before landfall over\r\nmainland Mexico.  After landfall, Sandra should dissipate quickly\r\nover the mountains of northwestern Mexico.  Overall, the new\r\nintensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the guidance envelope\r\nand is in best overall agreement with the Florida State\r\nSuperensemble.\r\n\r\nIt is too soon to know exactly how Sandra will affect portions of\r\nthe southern Baja California peninsula or the west coast of\r\nmainland Mexico.  However, a watch may be required on Wednesday,\r\nand interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Sandra.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 12.0N 107.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 12.6N 109.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 14.0N 110.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 15.8N 110.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.7N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 22.0N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 26.0N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":7,"Date":"2015-11-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 AM MST WED NOV 25 2015\r\n\r\nAlthough an eye is not apparent on infrared imagery, the cloud\r\npattern has continued to become better organized with the center of\r\nthe cyclone embedded within an area of very deep convection. The\r\noutflow pattern continues to be established in all quadrants. Based\r\non the average of objective estimates from CIMSS and subjective\r\nDvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been\r\nincreased to 75 kt. The wind radii was adjusted based on a recent\r\nASCAT B pass, which shows that the cyclone is a little smaller in\r\nsize than previously estimated.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane will be within a very favorable environment of low\r\nshear during the next 36 hours. In fact, the Rapid Intensification\r\nIndex of the SHIPS model continues to show better than 60 percent\r\nchance of a 40 kt increase in the winds during the next 24 hours.\r\nThen, the NHC forecast calls for strengthening. Beyond 36 hours, the\r\nhurricane will encounter strong shear and a rapid weakening should\r\nbegin, and Sandra is forecast to be below hurricane strength before\r\nit reaches the coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 295 degrees at 9 kt. The\r\nsubtropical ridge which is controlling the west-northwest motion\r\nof Sandra will shift eastward and weaken. This forecast pattern\r\nshould force the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward around\r\nthe ridge later today. The cyclone is expected to reach the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies in about 48 hours, and it should then\r\nsharply turn to the north-northeast and northeast toward the coast\r\nof Mexico. This is the solution provided by most of the guidance and\r\nis very similar to the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nAlthough Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is too soon to know\r\nexactly how Sandra will affect portions of the southern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico. A watch\r\nmay be required later today for portions of Mexico, and interests in\r\nthose areas should monitor the progress of Sandra.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 12.5N 109.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 13.5N 109.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 15.0N 110.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 16.7N 111.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 18.7N 110.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 23.0N 108.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 26.5N 105.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":8,"Date":"2015-11-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 AM MST WED NOV 25 2015\r\n\r\nSandra's convective pattern continues to become better organized,\r\nand a pinhole eye was observed in a 1201 UTC SSMIS microwave pass.\r\nAn eye has also been apparent in the latest infrared satellite\r\nimages.  The intensity is increased to 85 kt based on Dvorak\r\nestimates of T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and T4.8/85 kt from the UW-CIMSS\r\nADT.  This intensity makes Sandra the strongest hurricane in the\r\neastern North Pacific Ocean for this late in the year (the previous\r\nrecord was Hurricane Winnie of 1983, which reached an intensity of\r\n80 kt on December 6).\r\n\r\nLow shear and warm sea surface temperatures should allow additional\r\nstrengthening, and the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index is still\r\nshowing a 3 in 4 chance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24\r\nhours.  Therefore, the NHC official forecast continues to show\r\nSandra reaching major hurricane strength during the next 12-24\r\nhours, in best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\nSouthwesterly shear is expected to increase to about 30 kt by 48\r\nhours, and even higher thereafter, which should induce a fast\r\nweakening trend as Sandra approaches the Baja California peninsula\r\nand west coast of Mexico.  The official intensity forecast after 24\r\nhours is generally an update of the previous forecast and very close\r\nto the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane appeared to take a short-term jog to the west during\r\nthe past 6-12 hours, but the longer-term average motion is still\r\n295/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge continues to extend from southern\r\nMexico westward to near 20N110W, but the ridge is expected to be\r\nshunted eastward during the next 24 hours by an amplifying mid- to\r\nupper-level trough near the west coast of North America.  This\r\nshould cause Sandra to turn northwestward and northward during the\r\nnext 36 hours and then northeastward by 96 hours.  The track\r\nguidance is tightly clustered for the first 36 hours, but the\r\nspread increases after that time.  The models which maintain a\r\ndeeper circulation (i.e., the GFS and HWRF) show a sharper and\r\nfaster recurvature, while the models which depict a weakening,\r\nshallower system (i.e., the ECMWF and UKMET) show a slower and more\r\ngradual recurvature.  Since fast weakening is expected after 48\r\nhours, the updated NHC track forecast is slowed down and shifted a\r\nbit westward during that period to be closer to the models that show\r\na faster weakening trend.\r\n\r\nAlthough Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is too soon to know\r\nexactly how Sandra will affect portions of the southern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico.  A watch\r\nmay be required later today or tonight for portions of Mexico, and\r\ninterests in those areas should monitor the progress of Sandra.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 12.6N 109.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 13.5N 110.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 15.1N 110.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 16.9N 111.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 18.7N 110.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 22.5N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 26.0N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":9,"Date":"2015-11-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015\r\n\r\nSandra's intensification has continued at a rapid pace.  The\r\nhurricane now has a clearer eye in infrared satellite imagery that\r\nis completely surrounded by a white ring on the Dvorak enhancement\r\ncurve.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T5.5/102 kt and\r\nT5.0/90 kt, respectively, although data-T numbers were up to 6.0.\r\nThe UW-CIMSS ADT scheme has been flopping between different scene\r\ntypes, but when it has used an eye pattern it has yielded estimates\r\nin the 5.5-6.0 range.  Based on these numbers, the initial intensity\r\nis raised to 100 kt, making Sandra a category 3 hurricane.  There\r\nhave now been 9 major hurricanes over the eastern North Pacific\r\nOcean during the 2015 season, which is a record for that basin.\r\n\r\nSome additional strengthening is anticipated since Sandra will be\r\nmoving over sea surface temperatures between 29 and 30 degrees\r\nCelsius and within a low-shear environment for another 24 hours or\r\nso.  However, it is hard to tell how much longer rapid\r\nintensification (RI) will last.  The SHIPS RI index has fallen a\r\nbit since earlier today, but it still shows about a 50 percent\r\nchance of a 30-kt increase in winds over the next 24 hours.\r\nStrengthening is still shown in the NHC forecast for another 12\r\nhours, with some weakening beginning in 24-36 hours once the shear\r\nincreases.  Southwesterly shear increases to well over 30 kt beyond\r\n48 hours, and rapid weakening is expected as Sandra approaches the\r\nBaja California peninsula and western mainland Mexico.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is a little higher than the guidance for the\r\nfirst 12-24 hours, but then it is very similar to the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nSandra appears to have turned northwestward with an initial motion\r\nof 305/7 kt.  The hurricane is beginning to move around the western\r\nextent of a subtropical ridge located over southern Mexico, and it\r\nshould recurve to the north and northeast during the next several\r\ndays as a mid-/upper-level trough pushes the ridge eastward.  The\r\ntrack guidance remains in relatively good agreement through 24\r\nhours, with some divergence thereafter as the ECMWF model (on\r\nthe western edge of the guidance) takes a wider and slower turn\r\nwhile the GFS (on the eastern edge) take a sharper and faster turn.\r\nThe difference in these models is due to their depiction of\r\nSandra's vertical integrity once the shear increases.  The ECMWF\r\nshows a strongly tilted and shallower system by day 3 while the GFS\r\nmaintains a deeper vertical circulation even in the face of 50 kt\r\nof shear.  The NHC track forecast remains close to the model\r\nconsensus aids, but it is a little slower than the previous\r\nforecast due to the latest ECMWF forecast, which seems like a more\r\nrealistic solution at this time.\r\n\r\nAlthough Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is too soon to know\r\nexactly how it will affect portions of the southern Baja California\r\npeninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico.  Since the forecast\r\nhas slowed down a bit, a watch may not be required until tonight or\r\non Thursday for portions of Mexico.  Regardless, interests in those\r\nareas should continue to monitor the progress of Sandra.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 13.0N 109.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 14.0N 110.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 15.7N 111.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 17.5N 111.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 19.3N 110.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 23.1N 108.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 27.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":10,"Date":"2015-11-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 PM MST WED NOV 25 2015\r\n\r\nThe intensification of Sandra seems to have slowed during the past\r\nfew hours.  The cloud tops in the eyewall have continued to cool\r\nwith temperatures now colder than -80C.  However, as this has\r\noccurred the eye has become less distinct.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates are 115 kt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and there is a\r\nrecent CIMSS ADT estimate of 110 kt.  A blend of these data is used\r\nfor the initial intensity of 105 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 320/7.  Sandra is moving around the\r\nwestern end of a mid- to upper-level ridge over southern Mexico, and\r\nduring the next 96 hours it should move into southwesterly flow\r\nbetween the ridge and a deep-layer trough over the western United\r\nStates.  While the guidance is generally in good agreement with\r\nthis scenario,  there remains some spread between the slower and\r\nfarther west ECMWF and the faster and farther east GFS.  As seen in\r\nthe previous advisory, this is due to the GFS keeping Sandra a\r\nstronger system than does the ECMWF.  The new track forecast is\r\nmore or less an update of the previous forecast, but remains slower\r\nthan the model consensus in deference to the ECMWF, whose weaker\r\nforecast again looks more realistic at this time.  The new forecast\r\nhas the center of Sandra passing near the southern end of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula between 48-72 hours and subsequently moving\r\ninto mainland Mexico between 72-96 hours.\r\n\r\nSome additional strengthening is possible tonight. After that,\r\nSandra is expected to encounter rapidly increasing southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear, which should cause rapid weakening as the\r\ncenter approaches Baja California and mainland Mexico.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is near the intensity consensus IVCN through 48\r\nhours, and then it is a little stronger than the guidance at 72\r\nhours.  After Sandra makes landfall in Mexico, it is forecast to\r\ndissipate quickly over the mountains.\r\n\r\nAlthough Sandra is forecast to weaken, it is still too soon to know\r\nexactly how it will affect portions of the southern Baja California\r\npeninsula or the west coast of mainland Mexico.  Watches will not\r\nbe required on this advisory.  However, interests in those areas\r\nshould continue to monitor the progress of Sandra.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 13.6N 110.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 14.9N 110.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 16.7N 111.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 18.5N 110.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 20.4N 110.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 24.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 28.0N 107.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":11,"Date":"2015-11-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015\r\n\r\nSandra has intensified during the past few hours. The eye has\r\nbecome quite distinct and is surrounded by an area of very deep\r\nconvection. CIMSS ADTs have been oscillating around 6.5, which\r\nis the same as the T-number provided by TAFB. On this basis, the\r\ninitial intensity has been increased to 125 kt, making Sandra a\r\ncategory 4 hurricane.\r\n\r\nMost likely, Sandra has already reached its peak intensity, and\r\nalthough the ocean is still warm, the hurricane is expected to\r\nsoon encounter very strong southwesterly shear, which should result\r\nin rapid weakening. This is reflected in both the GFS and the ECMWF\r\nglobal models which separate the mid-level circulation for the\r\nsurface center in about 36 to 48 hours due to shear. Sandra is\r\nexpected to be a weakening storm by the time its center passes south\r\nof the southern portion the Baja California peninsula in about 48\r\nhours. The cyclone is forecast to be a dissipating remnant low over\r\nmainland Mexico in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nAs anticipated, Sandra has turned northward, and the initial motion\r\nis now 350/10. The ridge that was controlling the motion of Sandra\r\nhas been eroded by an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This flow\r\npattern should force the hurricane to recurve soon, and then turn\r\neven more to the north-northeast toward mainland Mexico. The NHC\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one and is very close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus. The ECMWF, however, insists on a track\r\ncloser to Baja California and this is not out of the question.  A\r\nsmall deviation to the north of the track will require watches or\r\nwarnings for the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula\r\nlater this morning, and interests in this area should continue to\r\nmonitor the progress of Sandra.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 14.6N 110.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 16.1N 110.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 18.0N 110.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 19.5N 110.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 21.6N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 27.0N 106.5W   20 KT  25 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":12,"Date":"2015-11-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 AM MST THU NOV 26 2015\r\n\r\nSandra has begun to fill.  The well-defined eye seen in conventional\r\nsatellite imagery overnight has since disappeared while the shape\r\nand distribution of deep convection within the central dense\r\novercast has become asymmetric.  The onset of weakening coincides\r\nwith an increase in southwesterly vertical shear as depicted in\r\nUW-CIMSS shear analyses now that Sandra is well north of the\r\nupper-level ridge axis.  Dvorak intensity estimates are decreasing,\r\nand the initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt in agreement with the\r\nlatest TAFB satellite classification.\r\n\r\nSandra has begun to recurve, with an initial motion estimate of\r\n005/10.  The cyclone is currently being steered by the southerly\r\nflow on the western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over the\r\nwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Within 24 hours, Sandra should become\r\nembedded in the fast-paced and deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead\r\nof a trough over the western United States, which should result in\r\na north-northeastward motion that should continue until dissipation\r\nover northwestern Mexico.  The new track forecast is adjusted to the\r\nright of the previous one and is on the eastern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nAs Sandra gains latitude during the next 24 hours, a sharp increase\r\nin southwesterly shear should contribute to rapid weakening of the\r\ncyclone.  By the time Sandra reaches 20N latitude just after 24\r\nhours, very strong shear associated with the western United States\r\ntrough should result in an abrupt decoupling of the low- to mid-\r\nlevel circulations and a destruction of the cyclone's warm core by\r\n48 hours.  The remnant circulation, likely devoid of convection, is\r\nexpected to reach the coast of northwestern Mexico just beyond 48\r\nhours and quickly dissipate over the high terrain of the Sierra\r\nMadre Occidental after moving inland.  The new intensity forecast\r\nshows an even quicker rate of weakening than the previous one and is\r\nlower the the multi-model consensus and the remainder of the\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 15.7N 110.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 17.3N 110.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 19.3N 109.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 21.2N 108.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 23.4N 107.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 28.1N 104.9W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":13,"Date":"2015-11-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015\r\n\r\nSandra's satellite presentation features a large CDO and impressive\r\noutflow in the northern semicircle. However, increasing shear has\r\nbegun to restrict outflow in the southwestern quadrant. The initial\r\nintensity has been lowered to 105 kt based on a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak Final-T and CI numbers (T5.0/6.0) from TAFB and SAB. Further\r\nquick weakening is expected as the shear is forecast to increase to\r\nabout 35 kt in 24 hours and 50 kt by 48 hours. This should result in\r\nSandra's low-level circulation becoming decoupled as the mid- and\r\nupper-level warm core is sheared off to the northeast. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast closely follows the latest SHIPS model guidance,\r\nand shows Sandra weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours. A 72-h\r\npoint is shown for continuity, but the low-level center of Sandra\r\nshould dissipate quickly after it moves inland over mainland Mexico\r\nafter 48 hours.\r\n\r\nSandra has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast\r\ntrack, with an initial motion of 360/10. The track model guidance\r\nhas shifted to the left this cycle, and keeps Sandra on a northward\r\nheading for the next 12 to 24 hours before turning north-\r\nnortheastward between a mid-level ridge over Mexico and a broad\r\ndeep-layer trough over western North America. The new NHC track has\r\nbeen adjusted 30-45 n mi to the left given the initial motion and\r\nthe trend in the guidance, and now brings the center of a weakening\r\nSandra closer to the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula\r\nin 36-48 hours. The NHC forecast is close to the new latest multi-\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nGiven the updated forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a\r\ntropical storm watch for the southern tip of the Baja California\r\npeninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.\r\n\r\nNote that the remnant mid/upper-level moisture associated with\r\nSandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event\r\nexpected to occur over portions of the south-central United\r\nStates this weekend. For more information on this event, please see\r\nproducts from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS\r\nWeather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.8N 110.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 18.1N 110.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 19.8N 110.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 21.8N 109.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 24.2N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 27.0N 107.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":14,"Date":"2015-11-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 PM MST THU NOV 26 2015\r\n\r\nDespite the presence of at least 25 kt of southwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear, the satellite appearance of Sandra unexpectedly improved\r\nnear 0000 UTC when the eye became better defined.  Whatever\r\nre-intensification this represents has ended, however, as the eye\r\nhas again begun to lose definition.  The initial intensity will be\r\nheld at 105 kt for this advisory, and the hurricane could have been\r\na little stronger than that three hours ago based on satellite\r\nintensity estimates.\r\n\r\nAfter nudging to the left earlier, Sandra has turned a little to\r\nthe right with an initial motion of 010/11.  The cyclone is moving\r\ninto an area of low-level southerly flow west of a ridge over\r\nsouthern Mexico and an area of strong mid- to upper-level\r\nsouthwesterly flow between the ridge and a large trough over the\r\nwestern United States.  The track guidance indicates that a\r\ngeneral north-northeastward motion should continue until the center\r\nreaches mainland Mexico in about 48 hours, although there is some\r\nspread between the poorly initialized ECMWF on the left side of the\r\nguidance envelope and the better initialized GFS on the right side.\r\nThe new forecast track is nudged to the east based mainly on the\r\ncurrent position and motion, and it lies near the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.  It should be noted that some eastward component\r\nof motion is likely to continue as long as Sandra retains a deep\r\nvertical structure, which would help keep the cyclone east of the\r\nBaja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nSteadily increasing shear should cause Sandra to rapidly weaken\r\nuntil the center reaches mainland Mexico.  The new intensity\r\nforecast, which is in good agreement with all of the intensity\r\nguidance is unchanged from the previous forecast.  It continues\r\nto call for Sandra to weaken to a tropical storm before the closest\r\napproach to Baja California and to a remnant low before reaching\r\nmainland Mexico.\r\n\r\nGiven the eastward shift in the forecast track, the expected\r\nweakening, and the likely decay of the wind field to the west of\r\nthe center, a tropical storm warning will not be issued for\r\nsouthern Baja California at this time.  However, a warning could\r\nstill be required later tonight or on Friday.\r\n\r\nIn addition to heavy rains over portions of Mexico, the remnant\r\nmid-/upper-level moisture associated with Sandra will contribute to\r\na significant precipitation event expected to occur over portions of\r\nthe south-central United States this weekend. For more information\r\non this event, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction\r\nCenter and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 18.0N 109.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 19.3N 109.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 21.1N 109.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 23.2N 108.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 25.0N 108.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 28.0N 107.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":15,"Date":"2015-11-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015\r\n\r\nIt appears that the strong shear is finally affecting the structure\r\nof the hurricane. The cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated and the\r\neye is no longer observed. In fact, most of the deep convection is\r\nnow on the northeastern portion of the cyclone. Both objective and\r\nsubjective numbers are decreasing, and the initial intensity has\r\nbeen lowered to 90 kt.  The shear is forecast to increase even more,\r\nand most of the global models continue to separate the surface\r\ncenter from the mid-level circulation. As suggested by guidance, the\r\nNHC forecast calls for weakening and brings Sandra near the coast of\r\nmainland Mexico below tropical storm strength.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Sandra has been moving toward the\r\nnorth-northeast of 020 degrees at 10 kt. The cyclone is already\r\nembedded within the broad southwesterly flow ahead of a large\r\nmid-latitude trough, and no significant change in the steering\r\npattern is anticipated. On this basis, the NHC forecast keeps this\r\ngeneral motion until the center of the cyclone reaches the coast of\r\nMexico in about 36 hours. The NHC forecast is a little bit east of\r\nthe previous one, and is basically on top of the multi-model\r\nconsensus. The ECMWF model has shifted a little bit eastward\r\nin the last run, but still is on the western edge of dynamical\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nGiven the eastward shift in the forecast track, the expected\r\nweakening, and the likely decay of the wind field to the west of\r\nthe center, it is becoming less likely that a tropical storm warning\r\nwill be required for southern the Baja California peninsula later\r\nthis morning.\r\n\r\nRegardless of the intensity of Sandra, heavy rains over portions of\r\nMexico, the remnant mid-/upper-level moisture associated with\r\nthe cyclone will contribute to a significant precipitation event\r\nexpected to occur over portions of the south-central United States\r\nthis weekend. For more information on this event, please see\r\nproducts from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and local NWS\r\nWeather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 18.9N 109.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 22.3N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 24.2N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 26.5N 107.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":16,"Date":"2015-11-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015\r\n\r\nThe coverage of cold cloud tops within the CDO of Sandra continues\r\nto decrease, and the southwestern portion of the CDO has eroded due\r\nto about 30 kt of southwesterly shear. An 1133Z SSMIS image also\r\nshowed that the eye had become less distinct. Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates continue to decrease, and based on a blend of the latest\r\nFinal-T and CI numbers the initial intensity has been lowered to 85\r\nkt, and this could be a bit generous. Quick weakening is expected\r\nduring the next 24 hours as the shear is forecast to increase to 40\r\nto 45 kt. This should result in the low-level circulation of Sandra\r\ndecoupling from the mid-level circulation before it reaches the\r\ncoast. Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today\r\nand continue to weaken as it approaches the coast of Mexico in about\r\n24 hours, but is still expected to be a tropical storm.  After\r\nlandfall, the low-level circulation should quickly dissipate,\r\nalthough a 36-hour forecast point was provided to show the system\r\nmoving inland. The new NHC intensity forecast is close to a blend of\r\nthe HWRF, SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nSandra has moved to the right of the previous forecast track, and\r\nthe initial motion estimate is 030/10. Sandra should continue to\r\nrecurve between a mid-level ridge centered over the western Gulf of\r\nMexico and a broad deep-layer trough over western North America.\r\nGiven the initial motion, the new NHC track forecast has been\r\nadjusted to the right of the previous one and now lies to the right\r\nof the latest multi-model consensus. The official forecast favors\r\nthe GFS and HWRF models, which have the best handle on the initial\r\nmotion. This adjustment to the track will bring the center of Sandra\r\nto the coast of Mexico in about 24 hours.\r\n\r\nGiven the eastward shift in the forecast track and the expectation\r\nthat Sandra will still be a tropical storm as it nears the coast,\r\nthe Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for Las\r\nIslas Marias and part of the coasts of the states of Sinaloa and\r\nNayarit. Regardless of Sandra's intensity at landfall, the main\r\nthreat will be heavy rains across portions of several Mexican\r\nstates.\r\n\r\nThe remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated with Sandra\r\nwill contribute to a significant precipitation event expected to\r\noccur over portions of the south-central United States this weekend.\r\nFor more information, please see products from the NOAA Weather\r\nPrediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 19.6N 108.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 21.4N 107.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 23.5N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 25.8N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  29/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Sandra","Adv":17,"Date":"2015-11-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015\r\n\r\nGeostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the low-level\r\ncenter of Sandra has begun to separate from the mid-level\r\ncirculation. This is due to vertical shear of 30 to 35 kt, which is\r\nforecast to increase further tonight. Dvorak estimates continue to\r\ndecrease as the deep convection wanes and separates from the center,\r\nand the initial intensity has been conservatively lowered to 70 kt\r\nbased on a blend of the latest Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and\r\nSAB. Quick weakening is forecast, and Sandra should weaken to a\r\ntropical storm in the next 12 hours and become a tropical depression\r\nor remnant low in 24-36 hours before dissipating. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has wobbled to the left during the past couple\r\nof hours, but a long-term initial motion estimate is 020/09. As\r\nSandra shears apart, the guidance envelope has shifted to the left\r\nthis cycle, with the exception of the HWRF. The new NHC track has\r\nbeen adjusted a little to the left of the previous one now that the\r\ncyclone is starting to weaken more quickly, and the NHC forecast is\r\nclose to the latest ECMWF solution. If Sandra decouples faster than\r\nanticipated, the low-level circulation could move to the left of\r\nthe new forecast track and even dissipate entirely before the center\r\nreaches the coast. However, the main threat of heavy rainfall over a\r\nlarge part of west-central Mexico will occur regardless of the\r\ndetails of the track and intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nThe remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated with Sandra\r\nwill contribute to a significant precipitation event expected to\r\noccur over portions of the south-central United States this weekend.\r\nFor more information, please see products from the NOAA Weather\r\nPrediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 20.4N 108.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 22.1N 107.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 23.8N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 25.5N 106.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandra","Adv":18,"Date":"2015-11-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 PM MST FRI NOV 27 2015\r\n\r\nSandra has sheared apart since the last advisory, with the low\r\nlevel center now exposed well to the west of the remaining\r\nconvection by 40 kt of shear.  The initial intensity is reduced to\r\n55 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  The shear should increase during the next 24-36 hours,\r\nwhich should keep Sandra on a rapid weakening trend.  The cyclone\r\nis likely to weaken to a tropical depression, if not a remnant low,\r\nbefore the center moves into northwestern Mexico in 24 hours or so.\r\nThis is reflected in the new intensity forecast, which is an update\r\nof the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has been moving west of due north for the past\r\nseveral hours, with a longer-term initial motion of 005/9.  A\r\nlow-level ridge over Mexico should steer Sandra or its remnants\r\ngenerally northward for 24 to 36 hours into northwestern Mexico.\r\nThe track guidance has again shifted to the west, and the new\r\nforecast track lies to the west of the previous track based on this\r\nand the initial location and motion.  However, the new forecast\r\nlies to the east of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nTropical storm warning remain in effect for the Las Islas Marias and\r\nportions of the coast of mainland Mexico due to the possibility that\r\nthe tropical storm force winds could reach the coast before Sandra\r\nweakens to a depression.\r\n\r\nRegardless of how Sandra evolves during the next couple of days,\r\nheavy rains are expected over a large part of west central Mexico.\r\nIn addition, the remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated\r\nwith Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event\r\nthat has begun over portions of the south-central United States.\r\nFor more information, please see products from the NOAA Weather\r\nPrediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 21.2N 108.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 22.6N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 24.3N 108.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 25.9N 107.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Sandra","Adv":19,"Date":"2015-11-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n200 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015\r\n\r\nSandra was decapitated by very strong upper-level winds, and now\r\nconsists of a tight swirl of low clouds devoid of deep convection. A\r\nperfect ASCAT pass over the cyclone at 0454 UTC indicates that the\r\nwinds have decreased to 35 kt, and this is the value assigned\r\nto the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nSince the shear is anticipated to increase further, additional\r\nweakening is forecast. Sandra is expected to become a remnant\r\nlow late Saturday or early Sunday before it moves near the\r\ncoast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe shallow swirl has been moving little during the past several\r\nhours. However, it should begin to move toward the north and\r\nnorth-northeast embedded within the low- to mid-level flow. The NHC\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and very close to the\r\nconsensus of the GFS and the ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\nGiven that Sandra is forecast to weaken, the Government of Mexico\r\nhas discontinued the tropical storm warnings. However, heavy rains\r\nare still expected over a large part of west-central Mexico.\r\nFurthermore, the remnant mid- and upper-level moisture associated\r\nwith Sandra will contribute to a significant precipitation event\r\nover portions of the south-central United States. For more\r\ninformation, please see products from the NOAA Weather\r\nPrediction Center and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 21.4N 109.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 22.6N 109.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 24.5N 108.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 26.5N 108.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Sandra","Adv":20,"Date":"2015-11-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP222015","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDRA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222015\r\n800 AM MST SAT NOV 28 2015\r\n\r\nSandra has been devoid of organized deep convection since about\r\n0000 UTC, a little after the time that the low- and mid-level\r\ncirculations separated from one another. With west-southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear of nearly 50 kt and forecast to increase\r\nfurther, regeneration is unlikely. Sandra is therefore being\r\ndeclared a post-tropical remnant low, and this is the last advisory\r\non this system. Some spin-down of the vortex is assumed since the\r\novernight ASCAT pass that showed tropical-storm-force winds, and the\r\ninitial intensity estimate is lowered to 30 kt.  Global models show\r\nthe remnant low of Sandra weakening further and dissipating in about\r\n24 hours near the coast of Sinaloa.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion of the post-tropical cyclone is toward the north\r\nor 010/06. The remnant low should turn north-northeastward around a\r\nlow-level ridge located near the south-central coast of Mexico, and\r\nthis motion should continue until dissipation.  The new track\r\nforecast is adjusted slightly to the right of the previous one\r\ntoward the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nMoisture associated with the remnants of Sandra's mid- and\r\nupper-level circulations could still produce heavy rains over\r\nportions of central Mexico during the next day or so, potentially\r\ncausing localized flash flooding and mud slides.  The remnant\r\nmoisture could also contribute to the significant heavy rain event\r\nalready occurring over the south-central United States. For more\r\ninformation, please see products from the NOAA Weather Prediction\r\nCenter and local NWS Weather Forecast Offices.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low, please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEP1, WMO header FZPN01 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 22.0N 108.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 24.3N 107.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-01-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016\r\n\r\nCurved bands of cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms associated with\r\nthe low pressure system over the eastern subtropical Atlantic have\r\nbecome better defined over the past 24 hours.  Although the\r\nconvection is not very deep, it is likely of at least moderate\r\nintensity given the relatively shallow tropospause over the area.\r\nGiven the increased organization, and the apparent dissipation of\r\nnearby frontal features, advisories are being initiated at this\r\ntime.  The cyclone is co-located with an upper-level low, and\r\nappears to have only a weak warm core, so it is being designated\r\nas a subtropical storm.  The current intensity is set to 45 kt in\r\nagreement with an earlier scatterometer overpass.  A ship traversed\r\nthe northern portion of the circulation earlier today and did not\r\nobserve winds of tropical storm force and this is reflected in the\r\nadvisory wind radii.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been turning toward the left as it moves in the\r\nflow on the east side of a shortwave trough, and the initial motion\r\nis northeastward or 055/12 kt.  The trough is expected to continue\r\nto swing counterclockwise around a broader mid-latitude cyclonic\r\ngyre, and this should result in Alex turning northward and\r\nnorth-northwestward over the next several days.  The official\r\nforecast track follows the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough the shear is not forecast to become very strong over the\r\nnext several days, the cyclone will be moving over progressively\r\ncolder waters.  Therefore no increase in strength is shown for the\r\nnext day or so.  In the latter part of the forecast period, some\r\nstrengthening is possible due to baroclinic processes.  By 96\r\nhours, the global models show the cyclone merging or becoming\r\nabsorbed by another extratropical low at high latitudes.\r\n\r\nAlex is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the time it\r\npasses near or over the Azores, so no tropical storm warnings are\r\nbeing issued for those islands.  However, gale force winds are\r\nlikely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late on Thursday\r\nor early on Friday.\r\n\r\nAlex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January\r\nsince an unnamed system did so in 1978, and is only the fourth known\r\nto form in this month in the historical record that begins in 1851.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 27.1N  30.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 28.9N  29.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 32.0N  28.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 36.3N  27.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 42.3N  28.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 56.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-01-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n1100 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016\r\n\r\nEvening satellite imagery indicates that Alex continues to generate\r\na complex of curved convective bands, and an eye has been trying to\r\nform inside the innermost band.  Satellite intensity estimates are\r\n55-65 kt from TAFB and 55 kt from SAB.  In addition, recent ASCAT-B\r\ndata showed winds of 50 kt about 30 n mi southeast of the center.\r\nBased on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt,\r\nand this could be a little conservative.  Even though Alex has\r\nstrengthened, the system is still underneath an upper-level trough,\r\nand it has not yet developed the upper-level outflow characteristic\r\nof a tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nAlex has continued to turn toward the left and the initial motion\r\nis now 035/15.  The cyclone is expected to turn northward during\r\nthe next 12-24 hours due to the influence of a large extratropical\r\nlow over the northwestern Atlantic.  Alex is expected to turn more\r\nnorthwestward on the northeast side of this low after 48 hours,\r\nwith this motion continuing until the two system merge between\r\n72-96 hours.  The new forecast track is very similar to the\r\nprevious track, and it calls for Alex to pass near or over the\r\nAzores in about 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe subtropical storm is expected to move over colder sea surface\r\ntemperatures during the next day or so, and little change in\r\nstrength is expected during that time.  After that, the cyclone\r\nshould gradually intensify during and after extratropical\r\ntransition, which should be complete at about the time the cyclone\r\npasses near or through the Azores.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nstronger than the previous forecast and shows Alex as a storm-force\r\ncyclone for the next 72 hours.\r\n\r\nGale and storm force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, are\r\nlikely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late Thursday or\r\nearly Friday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 28.7N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 30.6N  28.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 34.2N  27.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 39.3N  27.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 45.7N  29.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 58.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-01-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n500 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016\r\n\r\nSince the previous advisory, the convective structure of Alex has\r\ncontinued to improve with a 15-nmi clear eye now embedded within a\r\nsolid cloud shield of tops colder than -50C, with a ring of cloud\r\ntops near -60C surrounding the eye in the northern semicircle. The\r\nintensity of Alex is difficult to ascertain due to its subtropical\r\ncharacteristics, and satellite intensity estimates range from\r\nST3.5/55 kt from TAFB to a tropical T4.5/77 kt from SAB. NHC AODT\r\nintensity estimates range from T4.0/65 kt to T4.5/77 kt using a\r\ntropical pattern and various eye scenes. Since the overall cloud\r\npattern of Alex has improved markedly since the earlier 50-kt\r\nASCAT-B scatterometer wind data, and a clear and distinct eye\r\nfeature is now evident, the intensity is being raised to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nAlex continues to gradually turn toward the left and the initial\r\nmotion is now 020/16 kt.  The cyclone is forecast to turn northward\r\nduring the next 12 hours or so as it is steered by deep southerly\r\nflow between a large extratropical low centered over the northwest\r\nAtlantic and a subtropical ridge over northwestern Africa. A general\r\nnorthward motion is expected to continue through at least 36 hours,\r\nwhich should bring the center of Alex through the central Azores in\r\nabout 30 hours or 1200 UTC 15 January. By 48 hours, Alex should\r\nstart to turn more toward the northwest and west as it moves closer\r\nto the center of a larger extratropical low forecast to be south of\r\nGreenland on days 3 and 4. The new forecast track is essentially\r\njust an update of the previous advisory track through 36 hours, and\r\nlies close to the consensus model TVCA.\r\n\r\nGlobal and regional models, plus geostationary and microwave\r\nsatellite data, indicate that Alex remains a vertically stacked\r\nlow pressure system up to the 200 mb level, suggesting that the\r\ncyclone is still primarily a subtropical storm. However, water vapor\r\nimagery during the past few hours has been hinting that some weak\r\nupper-level outflow might be trying to develop. GFS and NAM model\r\nforecast soundings indicate that the current inner-core region of\r\nAlex with Lifted Indices (LI) of -2 and CAPE values of 400-500 are\r\nonly expected to decrease to LI of -1 and CAPE near 300 as the\r\ncyclone nears the Azores islands in 24-30 hours. In addition, the\r\ninner-core region is forecast to remain saturated up to the 200 mb\r\nlevel, along with precipitable water values around 1.60 inches. This\r\nwould suggest that Alex could remain as a subtropical cyclone by\r\nthe time it reaches the Azores, and some slight strengthening is\r\neven possible as 300 mb temperatures are forecast to decrease from\r\n-40C to around -42C in the inner core. The official intensity has\r\nbeen nudged upward and is similar to a blend of the ECMWF and HRWF\r\nmodel intensity forecasts.\r\n\r\nGale- and storm-force winds, as well as locally heavy rains, are\r\nlikely to affect portions of the Azores beginning tonight and\r\ncontinuing into early Friday. Recent communications with the Azores\r\nMeteorological Office indicate that wind gusts to a least 70 kt (130\r\nkm/h) are forecast to occur across portions of the central and\r\neastern Azores islands. However, stronger gusts will be possible at\r\nhigher elevations, especially over mountain tops and ridges.\r\nInterests in the Azores should closely monitor the progress of Alex\r\nand official forecasts issued by the Azores weather office.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 30.1N  29.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 32.4N  28.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 36.4N  27.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 42.0N  28.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 49.1N  29.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 60.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/0600Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-01-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n1100 AM AST THU JAN 14 2016\r\n\r\nRemarkably, Alex has undergone the transformation into a hurricane.\r\nA distinct eye is present, embedded within a fairly symmetric mass\r\nof deep convection.  Water vapor imagery shows that the upper-level\r\ntrough is now west of the cyclone, with divergent flow over the\r\ncenter - indicative of a tropical transition.  It is very unusual to\r\nhave a hurricane over waters that are near 20 deg C, but the\r\nupper-tropospheric temperatures are estimated to be around -60 deg\r\nC, which is significantly colder than the tropical mean.  The\r\nresulting instability is likely the main factor contributing to the\r\ntropical transition and intensification of Alex.  With these\r\nchanges, the government of the Azores has issued warnings for most\r\nof the Azores islands.\r\n\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 75 kt in accordance with the\r\nanalyzed Dvorak T-number of 4.5.  Only slight additional\r\nintensification seems possible since the system will be passing\r\nover even colder waters during the next day or two.  In 36 hours,\r\nthe global models suggest that the cyclone will become\r\nextratropical as it begins to merge with a large low pressure area\r\nat high latitude.  The post-tropical cyclone is then likely to lose\r\nits identity after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is north-northeastward or 020/17 kt.  Alex is\r\nbeing steered by a shortwave mid-level trough that is rotating\r\naround a larger trough to the northwest.  This should cause the\r\ncyclone to turn northward and north-northwestward and accelerate\r\nover the next couple of days.  The official track forecast is very\r\nsimilar to the previous one and also quite close to the consensus\r\nof the tightly-packed dynamical model forecast tracks.\r\n\r\nAlex is the first hurricane to form in the month of January since\r\n1938, and the first hurricane to occur in this month since Alice of\r\n1955.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 31.5N  28.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 34.3N  27.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 38.9N  27.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 45.3N  28.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 53.0N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-01-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n500 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016\r\n\r\nAlex has been maintaining a fairly impressive appearance on\r\nsatellite imagery, with a well-defined 15-20 n mi diameter eye\r\nembedded within cold cloud tops.  Recent images do suggest some\r\nwarming/erosion of the tops over the southwest quadrant.  Dvorak\r\nT-numbers remain near 4.5 so the current intensity is held at 75\r\nkt.  Sea surface temperatures are now below 20 deg C and should\r\ncontinue to cool along the path of Alex.  This, along with a little\r\nincrease in southwesterly shear, should result in gradual\r\nweakening.  However, Alex is expected to maintain hurricane strength\r\nwhile passing near or over the Azores.  In 24 hours or so, the\r\nglobal models show a distinct warm front over the northeast portion\r\nof the circulation.  This suggests extratropical transition, and the\r\nofficial forecast reflects this.  Later in the forecast period, the\r\nglobal models show the system merging with another extratropical\r\ncyclone over the northern Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is slightly east of due northward or 015/19.\r\nThere is essentially no change to the track forecast reasoning.\r\nAlex continues to be steered by the flow of a shortwave\r\nmid-tropospheric trough that has been rotating around a broader\r\ntrough to its northwest.  This evolution should cause the cyclone\r\nto turn gradually to the left with increasing forward speed over\r\nthe next couple of days.  The dynamical track guidance models are\r\nin excellent agreement for the first 36 hours of the forecast, and\r\nthe official forecast is near the consensus of these models.  This\r\nis basically an update of the previous NHC track prediction.\r\n\r\nAlex's wind field is likely to expand as it nears and makes the\r\nextratropical transition.  The wind radii forecasts are based\r\nprimarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 33.6N  27.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 36.4N  27.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 41.8N  27.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 49.5N  29.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 56.5N  34.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-01-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n1100 PM AST THU JAN 14 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the convective structure of Alex\r\nhas decayed during the past 6 hours, with the eyewall breaking\r\nopen and the banding dissipating in the southeastern semicircle.\r\nBased on this, the initial intensity is lowered to 70 kt.  The\r\nhurricane is moving over colder sea surface temperatures of less\r\nthan 20C.  However, the cyclone should begin extratropical\r\ntransition in the next few hours, and the global models suggest\r\nthere will be enough baroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force\r\nwinds through and after the transition despite the cold water.\r\nBased on this and input from the Ocean Prediction Center, the new\r\nintensity forecast shows little change in strength until Alex is\r\nabsorbed by a large extratropical low in about 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 010/19.  There are no changes to the forecast\r\nphilosophy from the previous advisory and only minor tweaks to the\r\nforecast track.  Alex continues to be steered by the flow of a\r\nshortwave mid-tropospheric trough that is rotating around the\r\ndeveloping large baroclinic low to its west and northwest. This\r\nevolution should cause the cyclone to turn gradually to the left\r\nwith increasing forward speed over the next couple of days. The\r\ndynamical track guidance models remain in excellent agreement for\r\nthe first 36 hours of the forecast, and the official forecast is\r\nnear the model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlex's wind field is likely to expand as it undergoes extratropical\r\ntransition.  The wind radii forecasts are based primarily on\r\nguidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 34.7N  27.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 38.4N  27.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 45.0N  29.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 52.7N  32.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 59.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Alex","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-01-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n500 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016\r\n\r\nCorrected 48-hr forecast position\r\n\r\nThe overall convective pattern of Alex has continued to erode since\r\nthe previous advisory. However, conventional and microwave satellite\r\nimagery indicate that there is still enough inner-core convection\r\nand a small radius of maximum winds to warrant keeping Alex as a\r\nhurricane for this advisory. Satellite classifications continue to\r\ndecrease, and the initial intensity has been lowered to 65 kt based\r\non a blend of the TAFB current intensity estimate of T4.5/77 kt and\r\na current T-number of T3.5/55 kt.\r\n\r\nAlex has yet to make the turn toward due north, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 005/20 kt. Other than to nudge the forecast track\r\nslightly to the right based on the more eastward initial position,\r\nthere are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or\r\nreasoning. Alex is expected to be steered northward and then\r\nnorthwestward over the next couple of days within deep cyclonic flow\r\nin the eastern periphery of a large extratropical low centered over\r\nthe northwestern Atlantic near Newfoundland. On the forecast track,\r\nthe center of Alex and the core of strongest winds should reach the\r\ncentral Azores by late morning or early afternoon. The global and\r\nregional model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this\r\nscenario, and the official forecast track is a blend of the\r\nconsensus model TVCN and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nMost of the coldest cloud shield has now shifted into the western\r\nsemicircle, a signal that extratropical transition is likely\r\nbeginning. With Alex now moving over 16C sea-surface temperatures,\r\nand with colder water still ahead of the cyclone, transition to\r\nan extratropical cyclone should be complete within the next 12\r\nhours. However, global models suggest that there will be enough\r\nbaroclinic forcing to maintain hurricane-force winds after\r\ntransition occurs despite the cold waters of the north Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant\r\nbased on quality wind reports from ship BATFR17. The wind field is\r\nexpected to continue to expand as Alex undergoes extratropical\r\ntransition at higher latitudes. The wind radii forecasts are based\r\nprimarily on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 36.8N  27.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 41.4N  27.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 48.7N  30.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 56.0N  34.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 56.5N  47.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Alex","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-01-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI JAN 15 2016\r\n\r\nSurface observations, scatterometer, and geostationary satellite\r\ndata indicate that Alex has weakened, and the current intensity\r\nestimate is 60 kt.  Wind and pressure observations from Terceira\r\nalong with the scatterometer data indicate that the center is\r\ntilted north-northeastward with height, indicative of some\r\nsouth-southwesterly vertical shear.  The global models show\r\nsignificant thermal advection developing over the eastern portion\r\nof the circulation very soon, and observation from the western\r\nAzores show cold air advection.  These factors indicate that Alex\r\nwill likely become an extratropical cyclone later today.  Some\r\nrestrengthening due to baroclinic processes is possible in the short\r\nterm, but the post-tropical cyclone is forecast to merge with or\r\nbecome absorbed by another extratropical low within 48 hours.\r\n\r\nAlex continues to accelerate and is now moving about 360/24.  A\r\ngradual turn to the northwest is expected as the system rotates\r\naround a broader cyclonic gyre over the northern Atlantic.  The\r\nofficial forecast track is roughly in the middle of the dynamical\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe forecast points and wind radii are based mostly on guidance\r\nfrom the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 39.3N  27.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 45.1N  28.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 52.7N  31.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 57.0N  40.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Alex","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-01-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012016\r\n500 PM AST FRI JAN 15 2016\r\n\r\nGeostationary and low-level microwave satellite images show the\r\ncloud pattern becoming elongated and taking on a comma, i.e.\r\nfrontal, shape.  Short-term model forecasts show significant\r\nthermal advection in the circulation, and this is also suggested by\r\nsurface data.  An earlier scatterometer pass showed that the system\r\nwas losing its inner-core wind maximum, with the strongest winds\r\nwell-removed to the northeast of the center.  Therefore Alex has\r\nmade the transition to an extratropical cyclone, and this will be\r\nthe last advisory.\r\n\r\nMaximum winds are estimated to be just below hurricane strength,\r\nand the post-tropical cyclone could re-intensify slightly in the\r\nshort term due to baroclinic energy sources. Within 48 hours, the\r\nglobal models generally agree on the system merging with another\r\nextratropical low over the north Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has accelerated greatly during the day and is now moving\r\nslightly west of due north, or 350/35.  The dynamical guidance\r\nshows the system rotating counterclockwise around a large gyre over\r\nthe north Atlantic during the next day or so.  This is also shown\r\nin the official forecast, which is based mainly on input from the\r\nNOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header\r\nNFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml, and in high seas\r\nforecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and\r\navailable on the web at\r\nhttp://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 43.0N  27.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 49.2N  29.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 56.3N  36.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 56.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/1800Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-05-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating the low\r\npressure system located about 400 n mi southeast of Charleston,\r\nSouth Carolina, indicated that the system has developed a\r\nwell-defined closed circulation.  With this afternoon's increase in\r\nconvection near the center, the system is now a tropical cyclone\r\nand advisories have been initiated.  The strongest reliable SFMR\r\nsurface wind measured was 30 kt, and that is the intensity set for\r\nthis advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/11 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge\r\nto the northeast of the depression is forecast to remain\r\noriented northwest-southeast across the Carolinas through 36 hours\r\nor so, which should keep the depression moving in a general\r\nwest-northwestward direction during that time. By 48 hours, however,\r\na mid-level shortwave trough ejecting northeastward out of the\r\nsouth-central United States is forecast to erode the ridge,\r\nresulting in a significant weakening of the steering currents and a\r\nsharp decrease in forward speed as the cyclone is approaching the\r\ncoast of South Carolina. By day 3 and beyond, the cyclone is\r\nforecast to move slowly northeastward or eastward off of the coast\r\nof North Carolina as a weakening system. The models are in good\r\nagreement on this track scenario, with only small differences in\r\nforward speed. The official track forecast is close to the consensus\r\nmodel TVCN and has incorporated the slightly slower speed of the\r\nECMWF model.\r\n\r\nThe depression will be moving over somewhat cooler sea surface\r\ntemperatures of near 25C during the next 24 hours or so before\r\nmoving over the warmer Gulfstream by 36 hours, where SSTs are\r\n27C-28C.  Over the next day or so, the cyclone will also be moving\r\ninto weaker vertical wind shear conditions. The net result is\r\nexpected to be slow strengthening to tropical storm status prior to\r\nlandfall. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS model\r\nthrough 48 hours, and then closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model\r\nafter that.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 28.5N  74.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 29.5N  76.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 30.7N  78.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 32.0N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 32.8N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 33.6N  78.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 34.0N  77.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z 34.7N  75.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-05-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the\r\npast few hours, and the associated deep convection is confined to a\r\nsomewhat linear band north and northwest of the center. The initial\r\nintensity remains 30 kt, consistent with a blend of the latest TAFB\r\nand SAB Dvorak estimates. The biggest positive factor for the\r\ncyclone intensifying in the next 12 to 36 hours is its movement over\r\nthe Gulf Stream, where SSTs are above 27C. However, moderate to\r\nstrong vertical shear and dry air argue against significant\r\nstrengthening. Given these competing factors, the official forecast\r\ncontinues to show modest intensification during the first 24-36\r\nhours. This forecast is closest to the SHIPS model. After 36 hours,\r\na track over cooler shelf waters and an increase in shear should\r\nresult in slow weakening, with the system expected to become a\r\nremnant low in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/10, with the depression currently\r\nsituated between a mid/upper-level low over the northwest Bahamas\r\nand a narrow mid-level ridge extending east of the North Carolina\r\ncoast. These features should result in a continued west-\r\nnorthwestward track for the next 24 hours. After that time, both of\r\nthese synoptic steering features weaken while a broad mid/upper-\r\nlevel trough moves into the eastern United States. This pattern\r\nsuggests that the cyclone will slow down and gradually turn\r\nnorthward and then northeastward in 2-3 days. Through day 3 the NHC\r\ntrack is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, and lies a\r\nbit to the right of the previous official forecast, especially at 48\r\nand 72 hours. After that time the global model spread is larger. The\r\nECMWF shows the remnant low moving more quickly northeastward, while\r\nthe GFS and GEFS ensemble mean show a motion back toward the west at\r\ndays 4-5. The NHC forecast late in the period still favors the ECMWF\r\ntrack, but is slower given the latest GFS/GEFS trend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 29.0N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 30.0N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 31.3N  78.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 32.2N  79.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 32.7N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 33.5N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 34.0N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z 34.5N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-05-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression has not become any better organized since yesterday.\r\nThe convection is located to the northwest of the low-level center\r\ndue to southeasterly shear, and it is also limited due to the fact\r\nthat the cyclone has been moving over cooler waters. Dvorak\r\nT-numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 30\r\nkt based on continuity. The depression has a small opportunity to\r\nstrengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it moves over the\r\nwarmer waters of the Gulf Stream, although the shear is not\r\nfavorable for intensification. This is consistent with most of the\r\nintensity guidance, which do not show any notable increase of the\r\nwinds. In between 24 and 36 hours, the circulation will be\r\ninteracting with land, and weakening should begin. By 72 hours or\r\nsooner, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low.\r\n\r\nAlthough the low-level center is difficult to locate on satellite\r\nimagery, the best estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at\r\n12 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge\r\nof a mid-level ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer the\r\ncyclone on the same track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a\r\nshort wave trough is forecast to approach from the west and force\r\nthe cyclone to turn to the east-northeast at a very slow pace. The\r\nNHC forecast is an extrapolation of the previous one, and it\r\nfollows the trend of the GFS and the ECMWF models very closely. The\r\nNHC forecast brings the center of the cyclone near the South\r\nCarolina coast between 24 and 36 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 29.9N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 31.0N  78.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 32.4N  79.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 32.8N  80.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 33.0N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 33.5N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0600Z 35.0N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite and NOAA WSR-88D radar data indicate that deep convection\r\nhas increased in the northern semicircle of the depression's\r\ncirculation since the previous advisory. However, the depression\r\nremains a sheared tropical cyclone due to southeasterly upper-level\r\nwinds of 20-25 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft\r\ninvestigated the cyclone this morning and obtained reliable SFMR\r\nsurface winds of at least 30 kt.  Satellite intensity estimates\r\nwere also T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the intensity is\r\nbeing maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite and recon fix positions indicate that the\r\ncyclone has made a jog toward the west-northwest during the past six\r\nhours. However, smoothing through these short-term wobbles yields a\r\n12-hour motion of 310/11 kt. The ECMWF and GFS models actually did\r\nquite well in predicting this recent short-term wobble, and both\r\nmodels turn the depression more toward the right, accompanied by\r\na steady decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as the\r\ncyclone nears the South Carolina coast. As a result, the new NHC\r\nforecast track lies slightly to the left of the previous advisory\r\ntrack through 12 hours, primarily to account for the more westward\r\ninitial position, and then is near the previous track and a blend\r\nof the GFS-ECMWF model consensus track at 24 hours and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe depression is beginning to move over the eastern wall of the\r\nGulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are 27-28 deg C. Outer\r\nconvective bands have also developed over the slightly cooler shelf\r\nwaters between the South Carolina coast and the Gulf Stream, which\r\nimplies that there might not be as much of a weakening effect by\r\nthose cooler waters as previously anticipated. However, southerly\r\nvertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to\r\nmore than 20 kt before the cyclone reaches the coast, and that is\r\nexpected to inhibit any significant strengthening. It is possible\r\nthat the cyclone could peak at around 40 kt while it is over the\r\nGulf Stream this afternoon and evening, followed by slight weakening\r\njust before it reaches the coast. The official intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS\r\nintensity model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 30.3N  78.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 31.3N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 32.4N  80.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 32.7N  80.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 33.0N  79.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 33.6N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 34.4N  76.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1200Z 34.9N  75.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016\r\n\r\nA 1431Z ASCAT-B overpass indicated two 34-kt wind vectors existed in\r\nthe northwest quadrant of the tropical cyclone in a region of deep\r\nconvection that was not sampled during the earlier reconnaissance\r\nmission. Convection briefly weakened, but has redeveloped and\r\npersisted in that same part of the storm circulation for the past 5\r\nhours. Furthermore, NOAA Doppler velocity radar data from Charleston\r\nand Jacksonville have indicated winds ranging from 50-55 kt between\r\n15,000 and 20,000 feet in the same area of the 34-kt ASCAT wind\r\nvectors. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded\r\nto Tropical Storm Bonnie.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/09 kt. The exposed low-level\r\ncenter near the southeastern edge of the deep convective cloud\r\ncanopy has been easy to track over the past several hours, and has\r\nessentially been moving along the previous forecast track. The NHC\r\nmodel guidance remains in good agreement on Bonnie gradually turning\r\ntoward the north-northwest as it moves around the west side of a\r\ndeep-layer ridge, and moving onshore between Charleston and\r\nBeaufort, South Carolina, in about 18-24 hours. After landfall a\r\nmid-level shortwave trough moving northeastward out of the\r\nMississippi Valley region is expected to significantly weaken the\r\nridge, causing the steering to collapse. The result is that Bonnie\r\nis forecast to stall or meander along the coastal region of South\r\nCarolina in 24-36 hours before drifting off to the east or northeast\r\nby 48 hours. The NHC forecast track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory track, and closely follows a blend of GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nBonnie is currently moving over the axis of warmest Gulf Stream\r\nsea-surface temperatures of 27-28 deg C. Although slightly cooler\r\nshelf water lies ahead of the cyclone, those ocean conditions do\r\nnot appear to be sufficient to significantly weaken Bonnie based on\r\nrather vigorous convection that has developed just offshore of\r\nSouth Carolina today. However, southerly vertical wind shear of at\r\nleast 20 kt is expected to prevent any rapid or significant\r\nintensification before landfall. After 24 hours, land interaction\r\nand the aforementioned wind shear should induce slow weakening,\r\nalthough there could be some convective rain bands over water\r\nproducing wind gusts to tropical-storm force until about 48 hours.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory\r\nand follows the Decay-SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nThe primary impact from Bonnie is expected to be locally heavy\r\nrainfall.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 31.1N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 31.9N  80.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 32.8N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 33.2N  80.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 33.5N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 34.5N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 35.0N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z 35.7N  75.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe center of Bonnie has become exposed about 50 n mi to the\r\nsoutheast of a bursting area of deep convection due to strong\r\nsoutherly vertical wind shear. Despite this ragged appearance, data\r\nfrom an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found\r\nsome believable SFMR winds northwest of the center that support\r\nincreasing the initial intensity to 40 kt. Little change in\r\nintensity is expected before the center moves near or onto\r\nthe South Carolina coast on Sunday, with weakening to a tropical\r\ndepression expected in about 36 hours. Shear, dry air, and cool SSTs\r\nshould result in Bonnie becoming a remnant low by 72 hours, although\r\nI wouldn't be surprised if this occurred a little sooner.\r\n\r\nBonnie has moved little since the last advisory, with the 3 most\r\nrecent aircraft fixes all within about 5 miles of each other. The\r\ncyclone should begin to move north-northwestward and then northward\r\nduring the next 12-24 hours between a mid/upper-level trough\r\nadvancing into the eastern United States and a building ridge near\r\nand west of Bermuda. After that time, a weakening Bonnie should move\r\nslowly northeastward through the end of the period. The new NHC\r\nforecast is near the previous one through 12 hours. After that time\r\nthe official NHC track has been adjusted to the right of the\r\nprevious one but lies left of and a bit slower than the GFS/ECMWF\r\nconsensus out of respect for continuity. Note that the the shift in\r\nthe guidance envelope at 24 hours and beyond is largely due to the\r\nfact that Bonnie hasn't moved much this evening.\r\n\r\nThe primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which\r\nis already occurring over portions of coastal South Carolina.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 31.0N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 31.8N  80.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 32.7N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 33.1N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 33.5N  78.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 34.3N  77.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 35.0N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z 35.5N  75.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016\r\n\r\nShortly after Bonnie reached its peak intensity of 40 kt, water\r\nvapor imagery and satellite-derived winds indicate that a surge of\r\n40-60 kt upper-level winds passed over the center of the cyclone,\r\nwhich stripped away all of the associated deep convection. In\r\naddition, an intrusion of dry air has inhibited the redevelopment\r\nof significant deep convection near the center. Based on the erosion\r\nof the convective pattern, the intensity has been lowered to 35 kt\r\nfor this advisory.\r\n\r\nRadar and satellite imagery suggest that Bonnie is now moving due\r\nnorth or 360/07 kt. Bonnie has become a more shallow tropical\r\ncyclone due to the loss of all deep convection, and the system is\r\nexpected to be steered generally northward around the western\r\nperiphery of a low-level ridge for the next 24 hours or so. This\r\nshould bring the center of Bonnie near or just inland of the South\r\nCarolina coast this afternoon or tonight. After that, Bonnie is\r\nexpected to move slowly northeastward around the northern side of\r\nthe Bermuda-Azores High and emerge out over the Atlantic by 36 to\r\n48 hours, and continue moving northeastward or east-northeastward\r\nthrough the remainder of the forecast period. The NHC track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and closely\r\nfollows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model tracks.\r\n\r\nContinued strong southerly vertical wind shear, along with dry air\r\nin the mid- and upper-levels and proximity to land, should prevent\r\nany significant restrengthening from occurring. However, there\r\ncould be intermittent bursts of convection near the center of\r\nBonnie, keeping the cyclone as a tropical storm until landfall\r\noccurs later today. By 48 hours and beyond, environmental\r\nconditions worsen, and Bonnie is expected to degenerate into a\r\nremnant low pressure system by 72 hours, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nThe primary impact from Bonnie will be locally heavy rainfall, which\r\nis already occurring over much of South Carolina, eastern Georgia,\r\nand portions of southeastern North Carolina. These rains will\r\ngradually spread northeastward along the mid-Atlantic region over\r\nthe next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 32.1N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 32.6N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 33.3N  79.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 33.5N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 33.9N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 34.5N  76.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 35.2N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z 35.8N  74.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016\r\n\r\nMost of the deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone\r\nbecame separated from the center overnight, and Bonnie weakened to a\r\ntropical depression before reaching the south-central coast of South\r\nCarolina. Aircraft data indicate that Bonnie made landfall just east\r\nof Charleston near the Isle of Palms around 1230 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone has continued to move faster than expected,\r\nwith an initial motion estimate of 360/8 kt.  The global models\r\ninsist that a reduction in forward speed will occur today while the\r\ncyclone moves around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level\r\nridge over the western Atlantic.  As a result of the faster forward\r\nmotion, the NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward\r\naccordingly, and now shows the center moving farther inland during\r\nthe next day or so.  After 48 hours, a slightly faster northeastward\r\nmotion is expected to begin.  The updated NHC track is close to the\r\nGFS/ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nBonnie is forecast to weaken some during the next 12 to 24 hours,\r\nbut little change in strength is expected after that time since a\r\nportion of the circulation could be over water. A track farther\r\ninland than anticipated would result in a faster rate of weakening,\r\nand Bonnie would become a remnant low sooner in this scenario.\r\n\r\nThe primary impact from Bonnie will continue to be locally heavy\r\nrainfall, which is occurring over much of eastern Georgia, and\r\nportions of the Carolinas.  These rains will gradually spread\r\nnortheastward over the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple\r\nof days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 33.2N  79.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 33.6N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 34.0N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 34.1N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 34.1N  78.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 35.3N  76.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 36.5N  74.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1200Z 38.5N  72.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016\r\n\r\nThe much anticipated reduction in Bonnie's forward motion appears to\r\nhave occurred this afternoon.  Since the previous advisory, the\r\ntropical cyclone jogged westward and has become nearly stationary\r\njust northwest of Charleston, South Carolina.  The highest wind\r\nobservations this afternoon have been 25-30 kt at the Fort Pulaski\r\nC-Man site near the Georgia/South Carolina border around 1700 UTC.\r\nSince the time, the highest wind reports have been 20-25 kt over\r\nwater, and the initial wind speed has been reduced to 25 kt for this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nBonnie is expected to meander near the south-central coast of South\r\nCarolina overnight, before beginning a northeastward motion on\r\nMonday around the northwestern portion of a low- to mid-level ridge\r\nover the western Atlantic.  In 2 to 3 days, a slightly faster\r\nnortheastward or east-northeastward motion is forecast as the low-\r\nto mid-level westerly flow off the Mid-Atlantic coast strengthens.\r\nThe global models are in generally good agreement of this scenario,\r\nbut there are some forward speed differences, especially beyond 72\r\nhours.  The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is\r\nonce again close to the GFS/ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nSince a portion of the circulation is expected to remain over water\r\nduring the next few days, little change in strength is expected.\r\nAfter exiting the coast of North Carolina in about 72 hours, the\r\ncyclone will be moving over cool waters, which should cause Bonnie\r\nto become post-tropical.\r\n\r\nLocally heavy rains continue to be the primary concern from Bonnie.\r\nIsolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have already been\r\nreported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.\r\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 33.0N  80.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 33.2N  80.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 33.7N  79.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 34.0N  78.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 34.4N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 35.4N  76.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 37.0N  74.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Bonnie has been meandering over the Low Country\r\nof South Carolina this evening.  Satellite and radar data indicate\r\nthat the associated showers and thunderstorms have been shrinking\r\nin coverage and are primarily confined to the western side of the\r\ncirculation over portions of South Carolina, with some outer\r\nbands over eastern North Carolina.  The circulation of the system\r\nhas become a little less defined this evening with some evidence of\r\nmultiple vortices, and the overall appearance of the cyclone is\r\nquite ragged. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt, which is a\r\nlittle higher than reports from the nearby surface observations.\r\n\r\nBonnie has not moved much since the previous advisory, and the\r\nlatest initial motion estimate is a south-southeastward drift,\r\nor 160/1 kt.  The depression should move slowly northeastward or\r\neast-northeastward on Monday when a shortwave trough approaches\r\nthe cyclone.  After that time, a slightly faster northeastward or\r\neast-northeastward motion is predicted while Bonnie moves along\r\nthe northwestern side of a subtropical high pressure system.  This\r\nsteering pattern should take the depression, or its remnants,\r\nacross the coastline of the Carolinas during the next few days and\r\nthen offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean.  The new track\r\nforecast has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous one\r\nto come into better agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nLand interaction during the next few days combined with persistent\r\nsoutherly shear, dry air, and cool waters along the forecast track\r\nshould prevent Bonnie from restrengthening.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast calls for a steady state system through the forecast\r\nperiod, but Bonnie is likely to lose its convective organization and\r\nbecome a remnant low in about two days, or perhaps sooner. Another\r\npossibility, however, is that the circulation of the system opens\r\ninto a trough before it becomes a remnant low.\r\n\r\nThe primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy\r\nrainfall. Isolated rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have been\r\nreported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina.\r\nAdditional rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches are possible.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 32.8N  80.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 33.1N  79.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 33.5N  79.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 33.9N  78.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 34.4N  77.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 35.4N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 37.0N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0000Z 38.5N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016\r\n\r\nRadar and surface observations indicate that Bonnie has moved\r\neastward and is now located along the coastline just east of\r\nCharleston, South Carolina. A late-arriving RapidSCAT pass from 0029\r\nUTC showed several 25-27 kt surface wind vectors in a rain-free area\r\n50-80 nmi south-southwest of the center. Since that time, some\r\nmodest shower activity has developed in that same region, which\r\nsupports maintaining Bonnie as a 25-kt depression on this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 040/04 kt. Bonnie is expected to\r\nremain a vertically shallow low pressure system throughout the\r\nforecast period, and should be steered slowly northeastward to\r\neast-northeastward by an approaching 700-500 mb shortwave trough\r\nthat is expected to capture the small cyclone within the next 12\r\nhours or so based on recent trends in water vapor satellite imagery.\r\nBy Wednesday, Bonnie's forward speed is expected to increase as the\r\ncyclone moves along the northern side of the Bermuda-Azores\r\nsubtropical ridge. This steering pattern should take Bonnie and its\r\nremnants across the coastline of the Carolinas during the next 2-3\r\ndays, and then offshore into the western Atlantic Ocean by days 4\r\nand 5. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory\r\ntrack, and remains close to the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.\r\n\r\nBonnie has been convectively challenged for the past 12 hours. Only\r\nnarrow bands of weak to moderate convection have persisted near the\r\ncenter over land during the past 6 hours, and limited convection\r\nbeen developing over adjacent Atlantic waters. Furthermore, the 0000\r\nUTC Charleston, South Carolina upper-air sounding showed than Bonnie\r\nwas barely holding on to warm-core, tropical cyclone status with\r\nonly 1 deg C warmer temperatures than the surrounding environment\r\nindicated between 500-300 mb. Given the dry mid-level air that\r\noverlays the cyclone and continued moderate-to-strong southerly\r\nvertical wind shear for the next 48 hours or so, any significant\r\nre-strengthening appears unlikely while Bonnie remains over near the\r\ncool coastal shelf waters. The SHIPS and LGEM models re-strengthen\r\nBonnie back to tropical storm status by 36 hours, but this seems\r\nunlikely given that the cyclone will be over 22-24 deg C sea-surface\r\ntemperatures and in proximity to land. The official intensity\r\nforecast calls for Bonnie to maintain its current intensity of 25 kt\r\nthroughout the forecast period and become a remnant low pressure\r\nsystem by  48 hours. However, the latter could occur sooner than\r\nthe official forecast is indicating.\r\n\r\nThe primary concern from Bonnie continues to be locally heavy\r\nrainfall. Rainfall amounts of 6 to 8 inches have already been\r\nreported in portions of eastern Georgia and southern South Carolina,\r\nand additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 33.0N  79.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 33.3N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 33.5N  78.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 33.8N  77.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 34.4N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 35.7N  75.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 37.3N  72.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  04/0600Z 38.7N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016\r\n\r\nBonnie has been gradually weakening during the past 24 hours.  Deep\r\nconvection associated the depression dissipated around 0300 UTC, and\r\nthe central pressure has risen several millibars since this time\r\nyesterday.  Surface observations over land also indicate winds no\r\nhigher than 15 kt near Bonnie's center of circulation, however,\r\nwinds to around 25 kt are noted over water in a band well removed to\r\nthe east. Given the absence of deep convection for about 12 hours,\r\nBonnie no longer meets the criteria to be classified as a tropical\r\ncyclone and is being designated as a post-tropical/remnant low at\r\nthis time. Sporadic convection could re-develop in association with\r\nBonnie during the next few days, especially over land during peak\r\ndiurnal heating.  However, re-development into a tropical cyclone is\r\nnot anticipated.  Global models show the remnant low of Bonnie\r\ntransitioning into an extratropical cyclone along a frontal zone\r\njust after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 065/02, although visible\r\nsatellite imagery indicates little motion during the last few\r\nhours.  The track model guidance shows the post-tropical cyclone\r\ngenerally meandering slowly east-northeastward during the next day\r\nor so in a region of weak southwesterly steering flow.  A shortwave\r\ntrough entering the Midwest in 2 to 3 days should cause the post-\r\ntropical cyclone to move northeast and then east-northeastward into\r\nthe western Atlantic with an increase in forward speed.  The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is shifted a bit to the left of the previous one and\r\nkeeps Bonnie over land during the next 3 days.\r\n\r\nThere continues to be the potential for Bonnie to generate heavy\r\nrainfall and some flooding over portions of the Carolinas during the\r\nnext 2 to 3 days. Future information on Bonnie can be found in\r\nPublic Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning\r\nat 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and\r\non the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 33.4N  79.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 33.7N  79.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 33.9N  78.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 34.2N  78.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 34.8N  77.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 36.2N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 37.7N  73.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  04/1200Z 38.8N  69.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-06-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low\r\npressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent\r\norganized convection near the center.  Based on this, the system is\r\nagain being designated as a tropical depression.  The initial\r\nintensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on\r\nsurface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity\r\nestimate of 25 kt from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 055/5.  Bonnie is moving along the\r\nsouthern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone\r\nshould move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual\r\nincrease in forward speed during the next couple of days.  The\r\ntrack forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which\r\nare tightly clustered.\r\n\r\nThe center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters\r\nfor the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light.\r\nThus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during\r\nthat time.  After that, increasing shear and sea surface\r\ntemperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a\r\nremnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 35.1N  75.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 35.3N  74.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 35.8N  72.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 36.1N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 36.1N  66.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-06-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016\r\n\r\nCoastal observations, Doppler radar data, and reports from an Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Bonnie is a\r\nlittle stronger than on the previous advisory, and the Stepped\r\nFrequency Microwave Radiometer instrument on the aircraft has\r\nestimated surface winds as high as 39 kt.  However, these estimates\r\nare uncertain due to rain contamination and bathemetry issues.\r\nBased on other data, the initial intensity is increased to a\r\npossibly conservative 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 050/5.  There is little change in the\r\ntrack forecast philosophy since the last advisory.  Bonnie continues\r\nto move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and\r\nthe cyclone should move generally east-northeastward to eastward\r\nwith a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of\r\ndays.  The track forecast follows the various consensus models,\r\nwhich remain tightly clustered.\r\n\r\nThe center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters for\r\nthe next 12 hours or so while the vertical wind shear is light.\r\nThus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during\r\nthat time, bringing Bonnie back to a tropical storm.  After that,\r\nincreasing shear and sea surface temperatures below 24C should cause\r\nBonnie to again degenerate to a remnant low, with the system\r\nweakening to a trough in the westerlies by 96 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 35.4N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 35.8N  73.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 36.3N  70.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 36.5N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 36.5N  63.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 36.0N  55.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-06-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 PM EDT THU JUN 02 2016\r\n\r\nThe last observations from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft from several hours ago showed that Bonnie had changed\r\nlittle in intensity and remained just below tropical storm\r\nstrength. Since that time, the cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone\r\nhas not become better organized, and the center appears to be\r\nlocated on the southeast edge of the main area of deep convection.\r\nThe current intensity is held at 30 kt, and this is in agreement\r\nwith the latest Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB.  There is a\r\nshort window of opportunity for Bonnie to strengthen a bit as it\r\ntraverses the Gulf Stream and the vertical shear remains light\r\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours.  After that time, increasing shear\r\nand cooler waters should cause the system to weaken and degenerate\r\ninto a remnant low.  The official intensity forecast is the same as\r\nthat from the previous advisory. This is close to the model\r\nconsensus and somewhat below the DSHIPS and LGEM predictions.  By 96\r\nhours, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to become absorbed by\r\nan extratropical low over the north Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is about 055/5.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains basically unchanged from the previous couple of advisory\r\npackages.  Bonnie should continue to be steered by the flow on the\r\nsouthern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies and gradually turn\r\neastward with acceleration over the next few days.  The official\r\nforecast track is very similar to the previous one and close\r\nto a consensus of the dynamical models, which themselves are\r\nin good agreement.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 35.7N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 36.0N  72.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 36.4N  70.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 36.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 36.2N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 35.0N  54.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-06-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016\r\n\r\nBonnie's cloud pattern has become slightly better organized, with\r\na cluster of deep convection in the southwestern quadrant of the\r\ncyclone expanding in coverage and gaining greater curvature.\r\nHowever, nighttime visible satellite imagery and Doppler radar data\r\nfrom Morehead City, North Carolina, still show Bonnie's low-level\r\ncenter exposed to the northeast of this convective mass.  Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates are the same as those from 0000 UTC,\r\nand with the cloud pattern not fundamentally different since that\r\ntime, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Bonnie is currently\r\npassing over the relatively warm waters of the Gulf Stream that peak\r\naround 25.5 deg C, and the warmer water and a generally low-shear\r\nenvironment could allow the cyclone to re-attain tropical storm\r\nstatus today. By 24 hours, lower sea surface temperatures and a\r\nsubstantial increase in westerly shear should result in weakening,\r\nand Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a post-tropical cyclone\r\non Saturday. The new NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the\r\nprevious one and overall a little below the statistical-dynamical\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nBonnie has turned east-northeastward and begun to move a little\r\nfaster, with an initial motion estimate of 075/07.  Global models\r\nshow Bonnie turning eastward soon and accelerating further as it\r\nrides along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies for\r\nthe next couple of days.  The NHC track forecast is slightly to the\r\nsouth of and faster than the previous one, following the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 35.8N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 36.0N  71.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 36.1N  68.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 36.0N  64.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 35.6N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-06-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Bonnie has decreased this morning as the\r\ncenter moves over sea surface temperatures of less than 25C east\r\nof the Gulf Stream.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  While little\r\nchange in the wind speed is forecast during the next 48 hours,\r\nBonnie should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 hours or less due\r\nto the affects of the cold water and increasing vertical wind\r\nshear. The system is then expected to weaken to a trough by 72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 080/10.  The cyclone should move\r\ngenerally eastward along the southern edge of the westerlies with\r\nsome increase in forward speed until dissipation.  The new forecast\r\ntrack lies near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 35.9N  72.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 36.1N  69.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 36.0N  66.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 35.6N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 35.2N  59.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-06-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 PM EDT FRI JUN 03 2016\r\n\r\nSomewhat unexpectedly, the convection associated with Bonnie has\r\nincreased this afternoon to the point where the satellite intensity\r\nestimate from TAFB is now 35 kt.  In addition, an ASCAT-B overpass\r\nnear 1400 UTC showed several 35-kt vectors about 30 n mi southeast\r\nof the center.  Based on these data, Bonnie is again designated as\r\na tropical storm with an initial intensity of 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 090/11.  Bonnie should move generally\r\neastward to east-southeastward between the subtropical ridge to the\r\nsouth and a developing baroclinic low to the northeast.  The model\r\nguidance has shifted a little southward since the last advisory,\r\nand the new forecast track is nudged southward as well.\r\n\r\nThe current intensification is likely to be short lived, as Bonnie\r\nwill be moving over sea surface temperatures colder than 24C in\r\nabout 12 hours.  Thus, the intensity forecast calls for weakening\r\nthrough the forecast period, with Bonnie degenerating to a\r\npost-tropical low between 12 and 24 hours.  The low should\r\nsubsequently weaken to a trough between 48 and 72 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 35.9N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 35.9N  68.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 35.6N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 35.1N  61.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 34.6N  57.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-06-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI JUN 03 2016\r\n\r\nAfter the burst of deep convection noted earlier today,\r\nthunderstorm activity associated with Bonnie has diminished\r\nconsiderably with the only remaining convection occurring over a\r\nsmall area in the southeast quadrant of the circulation.  The\r\nmaximum wind speed is kept at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak\r\nCurrent Intensity number from TAFB.  Given the current lack of deep\r\nconvection, this intensity estimate may be generous.  Since the\r\nsystem will be traversing cool waters of near 22 deg C and vertical\r\nshear is forecast to increase to near 30 kt over the next 24-48\r\nhours, Bonnie is predicted to gradually weaken and soon become a\r\nremnant low. Global models show the cyclone becoming absorbed by\r\nanother low over the north Atlantic in 48 to 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 090/10.  Bonnie is moving along the\r\nnorthern side of a subtropical ridge and the southern edge of the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies, and this steering regime should continue\r\nfor the next couple of days.  The track model guidance is in\r\ngeneral agreement on a continued eastward motion with some\r\nacceleration over the next 48 hours.  The official track forecast\r\nis a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF output and similar to the\r\nprevious NHC track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 35.9N  69.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 35.7N  67.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 35.4N  64.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 34.8N  60.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 34.3N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-06-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection had essentially vanished, but a new puff of\r\nthunderstorms redeveloped east of the center during the last few\r\nhours.  The low-level circulation remains exposed west of the\r\nconvective mass due to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear.  An\r\nearlier ASCAT pass showed reliable 33-kt winds when the cyclone was\r\ndevoid of convection.  It is assumed that, with the new convective\r\nburst, tropical-storm-force winds still likely exist.  Thus, the\r\ninitial wind speed estimate is held at 35 kt.  A further increase in\r\nshear and Bonnie's movement over 22 deg C water should cause the\r\ncyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours.  Global models\r\nshow Bonnie opening up into a trough by 48 hours, with its remnants\r\nabsorbed by a frontal zone over the central North Atlantic soon\r\nafter that.  The new NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement\r\nwith the previous one and the latest statistical-dynamical guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 090/10. Bonnie continues to be\r\ncarried eastward along the southern edge of a nearly zonal flow\r\nover the western Atlantic.  The track model guidance shows Bonnie\r\nmoving just south of due east with additional acceleration prior to\r\ndissipation.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a bit southward and\r\nis slightly slower than the previous forecast, following the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 35.9N  68.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 35.5N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 34.9N  62.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 34.4N  58.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-06-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT JUN 04 2016\r\n\r\nBonnie appears to be weakening.  The small burst of deep convection\r\nthat occurred overnight has been shrinking, and the system is\r\nnow devoid of significant thunderstorm activity. Based on the\r\ndegraded structure of the system, the initial wind speed has been\r\nlowered to 30 kt, making Bonnie a tropical depression once again.\r\nThe depression is over cold water and in a high wind shear\r\nenvironment. Since these environmental conditions are not expected\r\nto change, Bonnie is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low\r\nby tonight. The remnant low will likely open into a trough within\r\nthe next couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe small cyclone is moving eastward at about 12 kt in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies. An eastward to east-southeastward motion\r\nat a slightly faster forward speed is expected until Bonnie\r\ndissipates. Little change was made to the previous track prediction,\r\nand the official forecast lies close to a consensus of the GFS and\r\nECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 35.6N  66.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 35.1N  64.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 34.6N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 34.1N  57.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-06-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n500 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016\r\n\r\nBonnie has lacked significant deep convection for several hours, and\r\nthe compact cyclone mainly consists of a swirl of low-level clouds.\r\nAn ASCAT pass from earlier today showed winds near 30 kt in the\r\nsoutheast quadrant of the circulation, and the initial intensity\r\nis held at that value.  Strong wind shear, dry air, and cold waters\r\nshould prevent the return of significant thunderstorm activity, and\r\nBonnie will likely degenerate into a remnant low tonight.  Most of\r\nthe models show the remnant low dissipating late Sunday or Monday.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been moving east-southeastward, 110 degrees, at\r\nabout 12 kt within the mid-latitude westerlies.  A general eastward\r\nto east-southeastward motion with a slight increase in forward\r\nspeed is expected until Bonnie dissipates.  The official track\r\nforecast is nudged a little to the south of the previous one, to\r\naccount for the more southerly initial position and motion, and\r\nlies close to the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 35.0N  65.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 34.5N  62.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 34.0N  59.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 33.3N  55.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Bonnie","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-06-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT JUN 04 2016\r\n\r\nBonnie has lacked organized deep convection since early this\r\nmorning and is basically only a swirl of low clouds.  Thus, the\r\ncyclone no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone and\r\nhas become a post-tropical remnant low.  Maximum winds are set to\r\n30 kt.  These winds should gradually weaken while the circulation\r\nopens up into a trough over the next day or so.  Model guidance is\r\nin good agreement on this system moving east-southeastward until\r\nthe low decays into a trough late Sunday or early Monday.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Bonnie.  Additional information on this\r\nsystem can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National\r\nWeather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header\r\nFZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 34.7N  63.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 34.3N  61.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 33.6N  57.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-06-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016\r\n\r\nThe low pressure area that moved across the Yucatan Peninsula\r\novernight has moved over the extreme southern Gulf of Mexico this\r\nmorning.  Satellite and surface data indicate that the circulation\r\nhas become sufficiently well defined to classify the low as a\r\ntropical cyclone.  The associated convective activity is located in\r\na band about 100 n mi to the east of the center due to moderate\r\nsouth to southwesterly shear.  NOAA buoy 42056 has reported 25\r\nto 30 kt winds during the past several hours, and this is the basis\r\nfor the initial intensity of 30 kt.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's\r\nintensity this afternoon.\r\n\r\nThe large size of the cyclone and continued moderate to strong wind\r\nshear over the eastern Gulf should limit significant strengthening.\r\nAlthough the statistical guidance only shows a slight increase\r\nin winds, the global models indicate some deepening. The NHC\r\nforecast is above the statistical guidance and calls for the\r\ndepression to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast\r\nof Florida.  The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical over\r\nthe western Atlantic in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 360/7 kt.  The depression\r\nis forecast to move northward, then northeastward at a faster\r\nforward speed tonight and Monday as it moves between a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough along the Texas coast and a ridge over the\r\nwestern Atlantic.  The track guidance is in good agreement during\r\nfirst 36-48 hours.  After moving over Florida, the cyclone should\r\nenter the mid-latitude westerly and continue a northeastward motion\r\nover the north Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding\r\nfrom heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 21.9N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 24.0N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 26.9N  86.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 29.6N  84.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 32.6N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 40.0N  63.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 46.5N  45.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1200Z 51.0N  32.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-06-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n400 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression has changed little in organization since this\r\nmorning.  The center is exposed well to the west of a linear band\r\nof deep convection that extends from the southeastern Gulf of\r\nMexico southward across western Cuba and into the northwestern\r\nCaribbean Sea.  The initial intensity has been held at 30\r\nkt.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently\r\nsampling the convective band to see if there are stronger winds.\r\n\r\nAlthough environmental conditions are not very conducive for\r\nstrengthening, the depression is expected to become a tropical\r\nstorm before it reaches the coast of Florida late Monday.  The NHC\r\nforecast is closest to the GFS and ECMWF models that indicate modest\r\ndeepening and bring the system to tropical storm strength tonight or\r\nMonday.  The system is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone\r\nover the western Atlantic in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northward at about 10 kt.  The track\r\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.\r\nThe depression is expected to move north-northeastward at a faster\r\nforward speed between a mid- to upper-level trough over eastern\r\nTexas and a ridge over the western Atlantic.  The track guidance\r\nremains in very good agreement through 48 hours.  Later in the\r\nforecast period, the cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward in\r\ndeep-layer southwesterly flow over the western Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazards with this system are expected to be flooding\r\nfrom heavy rains and some coastal flooding from storm surge.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 23.3N  87.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 25.1N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 28.0N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 31.0N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 34.0N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 41.9N  58.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 48.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  10/1800Z 53.5N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-06-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 05 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Colin remains not very well organized, and the\r\nlow-level center is impossible to discern from infrared imagery.\r\nThe imagery does show a mid-level center of rotation well to the\r\neast of where the low-level center was last found.  Another\r\nHurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate the storm\r\naround 0600 UTC, and this should be very useful for locating the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\nThe current intensity is kept at 35 kt based on earlier aircraft\r\nobservations and a Dvorak data T-number from TAFB.  Strong\r\nsouthwesterly shear should limit significant intensification of\r\nColin before it reaches Florida.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis similar to the previous one, and close to the latest model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nInitial motion is an uncertain 010/08.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nhas not changed from the previous advisory.  Over the next day or\r\ntwo, Colin should move north-northeastward to northeastward in the\r\nflow between a mid-level over the western and northern Gulf of\r\nMexico and a ridge over the subtropical western Atlantic.  Later,\r\nthe cyclone should move within the mid-latitude westerlies over\r\nthe north Atlantic.  The official track forecast is similar to that\r\nof the previous advisory and close to the latest GFS output.\r\n\r\nIt is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact\r\nforecast track of this system.  Strong winds, heavy rains and\r\ncoastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 23.6N  87.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 26.0N  86.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 29.1N  84.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 31.8N  79.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 35.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 43.3N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 49.0N  39.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0000Z 54.0N  33.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-06-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n400 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016\r\n\r\nColin remains poorly organized this morning.  Surface observations\r\nand data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nsuggest that at least two small-scale circulation centers are\r\npresent, one near an intense burst of convection around 24.5N 85.5W\r\nand the other well to the west-northwest near 25.5N 89W.  The low\r\nconfidence initial position splits the difference between these two\r\nfeatures.  The Air Force aircraft reported 850-mb flight-level\r\nwinds of 71 kt and estimated 60 kt surface winds on the SFMR\r\ninstrument.  However, these winds were measured in the\r\naforementioned convection, and it is unclear how representative they\r\nare.  There is sufficient data to justify increasing the initial\r\nintensity to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone appears to be moving faster, with the initial motion\r\nnow 015/12.  The track forecast reasoning again has not changed from\r\nthe previous advisory.  Over the next day or so, Colin should move\r\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward in the flow between a\r\ndeep-layer trough over the western and northern Gulf of Mexico and a\r\nridge over the subtropical western Atlantic.  After that time, the\r\ncyclone will become embedded in strong southwesterly flow associated\r\nwith a large baroclinic low over the eastern United States.  The\r\ntrack guidance has nudged northward since the previous advisory, and\r\nthe new forecast track, which lies near the consensus models, is\r\nalso nudged northward.\r\n\r\nThe poor organization and the presence of moderate vertical wind\r\nshear suggest that significant strengthening is unlikely before\r\nColin makes landfall in Florida in less than 24 hours.  The global\r\nmodels forecast winds of near 50 kt as Colin moves over the Atlantic\r\nand begins extratropical transition, and the latter part of the\r\nintensity forecast is based on this guidance.  The model guidance\r\nforecasts that extratropical transition should be complete by about\r\n72 hours.\r\n\r\nIt is important to emphasize that one should not focus on the exact\r\nforecast track of this system.  Strong winds, heavy rains and\r\ncoastal flooding are likely to occur well to the east of the center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 25.2N  87.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 27.6N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 30.7N  81.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 33.8N  76.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 37.6N  67.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 45.0N  50.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 50.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/0600Z 54.0N  29.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-06-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Colin does not resemble that of a\r\nclassical tropical cyclone, with the thunderstorm activity and\r\nstrong winds well to the east of the center.  Satellite, buoy, and\r\nthe earlier aircraft data indicate that the center, such as it is,\r\nis within a large area of light and variable winds. In fact, several\r\nsmall swirls are seen rotating within a larger cyclonic gyre.  The\r\ninitial wind speed is maintained at 45 kt, based on the overnight\r\naircraft observations.  The next reconnaissance aircraft will be in\r\nthe system around 18z.\r\n\r\nThe strong southwesterly shear and very poor organization of the\r\nsystem suggest that significant strengthening is not likely before\r\nColin reaches the coast of Florida later today.  The global models\r\nunanimously show some deepening when the cyclone moves near the\r\ncoast of the southeastern United States, likely due to\r\ninteraction with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern\r\nUnited States.  Colin is forecast to complete extratropical\r\ntransition in about 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 010/14 kt. Colin\r\nis expected to accelerate northeastward later today.  On Tuesday,\r\nColin is expected to move northeastward at an even faster forward\r\nspeed as it becomes embedded in strong southwesterly flow ahead of\r\na large deep-layer trough over the northeastern United States.  The\r\nNHC track forecast has been nudged slightly northward from the\r\nprevious advisory to be closer to the middle of the tightly\r\nclustered track guidance.\r\n\r\nDue to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from\r\nthe center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact\r\nforecast track, or on the time or location of landfall.  Heavy\r\nrainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding will begin affecting\r\nportions of the Florida Peninsula this afternoon well in advance of\r\nthe center's nearing the coast.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical\r\ncyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.  In this\r\ncase, NHC would anticipate continuing advisories and warnings on\r\nthe post-tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 27.0N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 29.6N  84.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 32.8N  79.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 36.3N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 40.2N  62.1W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 45.5N  43.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 50.0N  33.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1200Z 55.0N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-06-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016\r\n\r\nColin does not look much like a tropical cyclone in satellite\r\nimagery this afternoon.  The center remains well removed from the\r\nshowers and thunderstorms, and the reconnaissance aircraft data has\r\nfound the strongest winds about 200 n mi southeast of the center.\r\nThe highest flight level winds measured by the aircraft have been\r\n63 kt with SFMR surface winds of 40 kt.  Since the plane did not\r\nfully sample the convective band, the initial intensity is kept at\r\n45 kt.  The global models continue to significantly deepen the\r\ncyclone during the next 24 to 48 hours, which is likely due to the\r\ninteraction of the system with a mid- to upper-level trough that is\r\ncurrently moving southeastward over the Midwest.  The intensity\r\nforecast calls for an increase in wind speed during the next 24\r\nto 36 hours, then gradual weakening as an extratropical cyclone\r\nafter day 2.\r\n\r\nColin's initial motion is north-northeastward, or 030/20 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward as it moves\r\nalong the coast of the southeastern United States later tonight\r\nand Tuesday.  A continued rapid northeastward motion is expected as\r\nthe cyclone moves over the North Atlantic within strong\r\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned trough.  The\r\ntrack guidance has changed little during first 24 to 36 h, but\r\nhas shifted northwestward after that time. The NHC forecast has\r\nbeen adjusted accordingly, and is closest to the 12z ECMWF.\r\n\r\nDue to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy rainfall from\r\nthe center of Colin, it is important to not focus on the exact\r\nforecast track, or on the time or location of landfall.  Heavy\r\nrainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding are already affecting\r\nmuch of Florida and portions of the southeast United States.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical\r\ncyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.  In this\r\ncase, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on\r\nthe post-tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 28.8N  85.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 31.7N  81.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 35.2N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 39.4N  66.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 43.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 48.5N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 53.0N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  11/1800Z 56.5N  28.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-06-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n1100 PM EDT MON JUN 06 2016\r\n\r\nSurface observations and shortwave infrared imagery suggest that\r\nthe center of Colin is just offshore of the coastline in the Big\r\nBend region of Florida, and the system should make landfall very\r\nsoon.  Due to the displacement of the strong winds and heavy\r\nrainfall from the center of Colin, however, it is important to not\r\nfocus on the time or location of landfall, or on the exact\r\nforecast track. Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and coastal flooding\r\nhave been affecting much of Florida and these conditions should\r\nspread northward and northeastward over the southeast United States.\r\n\r\nThe intensity estimate remains at 45 kt, under the assumption that\r\nwind speeds near this value are still being experienced at some\r\nlocations along the coast.  Global models indicate that Colin will\r\ndeepen when it moves over the Atlantic, probably due to baroclinic\r\nenergetics.  Although Colin is expected to lose tropical\r\ncharacteristics within 24 hours, the models do not show it fully\r\nembedded within a frontal zone, i.e. extratropical, until about 48\r\nhours.  The official forecast goes with this scenario.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 050/19.  Colin should accelerate\r\nnortheastward ahead of a broad mid-level trough over the eastern\r\nUnited States for the next day or two.  After that, the forward\r\nspeed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a\r\ncouple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that Colin will probably lose its status as a\r\ntropical cyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.\r\nIn this case, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on\r\nthe post-tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 29.8N  83.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 32.9N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 36.5N  71.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 41.0N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 45.0N  55.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 49.0N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 54.0N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0000Z 56.0N  27.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Colin","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-06-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n500 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016\r\n\r\nSurface and aircraft data indicate that the center of Colin has\r\nmoved off of the coast of Georgia into the Atlantic.  Overall, the\r\nsystem does not look very tropical.  However, a large area of\r\ndeep convection has been persisting east and southeast of the\r\ncenter during the night.  Aircraft data and ship reports suggest\r\nthat the maximum winds remain near 45 kt, mainly to the southeast of\r\nthe center.\r\n\r\nColin has accelerated northeastward with the initial motion now\r\n050/27.  The cyclone is expected to move rapidly northeastward for\r\nthe next 24-36 hours due as it is steered by a large deep-layer\r\ntrough over the eastern United States.  After that, the forward\r\nspeed of the cyclone is likely to slow as it interacts with a\r\ncouple of other extratropical lows over the north Atlantic.  The\r\nnew forecast track is an update of the previous track, with a\r\nnorthward nudge at 72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nBaroclinic influences are expected to cause some strengthening\r\ntoday even as Colin loses its tropical characteristics.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to transition to a storm-force extratropical\r\nlow in about 36 hours, with gradual weakening thereafter.  The\r\nforecast intensities and wind radii have been modified based on\r\ninput from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that Colin could lose its status as a tropical\r\ncyclone while impacts are still occurring along the coast.  In this\r\ncase, NHC will continue to issue advisories and warnings on the\r\npost-tropical cyclone.  The current warnings are expected to remain\r\nin effect until it becomes clear that the center of Colin will not\r\nget closer to the coast than currently forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 31.6N  80.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 34.1N  75.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 37.8N  67.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 42.0N  58.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 45.2N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 50.5N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 54.0N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/0600Z 56.0N  28.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Colin","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-06-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite and surface observations indicate that Colin has become\r\npost-tropical.  A pressure minimum has recently passed near NOAA\r\nbuoy 41013, but the circulation has become so elongated and ill\r\ndefined that the system can no longer be considered a tropical\r\ncyclone.  However, strong winds are still occurring along the North\r\nCarolina Outer Banks, so advisories will continue on a post-tropical\r\ncyclone until these winds subside. The minimum pressure has fallen a\r\nfew millibars and recent buoy observations have recorded\r\ntropical-storm-force winds near the western portion of the deep\r\nconvection.  Assuming stronger winds are occurring within the deep\r\nconvection and given the fast translational speed of the system, the\r\ninitial wind speed is increased to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will\r\ndeepen due to baroclinic processes during the next day or so, and\r\nthe NHC intensity forecast calls for some additional strengthening.\r\nAfter that time, the low is expected to gradually weaken over the\r\nNorth Atlantic. The forecast intensities and wind radii of the\r\nextratropical low are based on guidance provided by the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical cyclone is moving northeastward at about 31 kt.\r\nThis general motion with some additional increase in forward speed\r\nis expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, the\r\ncyclone should slow as it moves around and is eventually absorbed\r\nby a larger low over the North Atlantic.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 34.0N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 36.9N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 41.0N  61.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 45.0N  53.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 48.0N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 51.5N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 53.5N  36.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  12/1200Z...Absorbed\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Colin","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-06-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032016\r\n500 PM EDT TUE JUN 07 2016\r\n\r\nColin is now being analyzed as a fully extratropical cyclone with\r\nfrontal features.  The gusty winds and rainfall has cleared the\r\ncoast of North Carolina; therefore this will be the final NHC\r\nadvisory on this system.  The low's intensity remains 50 kt, which\r\nis in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass that showed a large area\r\nof 40-45 kt winds well to the southeast of the center.  The\r\nextratropical cyclone will likely deepen tonight due to baroclinic\r\nenergetics, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday\r\nwhile the low moves over the North Atlantic.  The forecast\r\nintensities and wind radii are based on guidance provided by the\r\nOcean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is racing northeastward at about 35 kt, and this\r\ngeneral motion is expected to continue during the next day or so.\r\nAfter that time, the low should decelerate as it moves moves around\r\na couple of larger extratropical lows over the North Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Colin.  Future information on this system can be found in High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\r\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 36.5N  72.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 39.5N  65.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 43.5N  56.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 46.5N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 48.0N  43.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 53.0N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  11/1800Z...Absorbed\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016\r\n400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016\r\n\r\nThe low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has\r\nbecome sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical\r\ndepression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic\r\nhurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to\r\nthe center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now\r\na little better organized with some evidence of banding features on\r\nthe north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has\r\nmaximum winds near 30 kt.  This intensity is also supported by\r\nNOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt\r\nmost of the day.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a\r\nmid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States.\r\nThis general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is\r\npredicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24\r\nhours, or perhaps sooner.  The official NHC track forecast is close\r\nto the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the\r\ndepression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for\r\nslight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land.\r\nOnce inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it\r\ninteracts with rugged terrain.\r\n\r\nBased on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a\r\ntropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within\r\nthe state of Veracruz.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be\r\nheavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and\r\nmud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 19.9N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 20.0N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 20.3N  96.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 20.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression has changed little in overall organization since\r\nthe previous advisory.  Deep convection that developed near the\r\ncenter during the late afternoon has waned this evening, while\r\nshowers and thunderstorms over the far northern portion of the\r\ncirculation continue to exhibit some loose banding structure. Recent\r\nbuoy data and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB still\r\nsupport an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  Data from an Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is scheduled to investigate\r\nthe depression overnight should provide a better assessment\r\nof the cyclone's intensity.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 6 kt.  The track\r\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory.\r\nThe cyclone should move inland over Mexico within the next 12 to\r\n24 hours while it continues to move westward to the south of a\r\nlarge mid- to upper-level high that is located over the\r\nsouth-central United States.  The track guidance is in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near a blend\r\nof the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.\r\n\r\nModerate southwesterly shear and the sprawling structure of the\r\ndepression should prohibit significant strengthening before it\r\nreaches the coast of Mexico.  However, some slight strengthening\r\nis possible, and the system is still forecast to become a tropical\r\nstorm overnight or early Monday.  Rapid weakening is expected once\r\nthe center moves over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico, and\r\nthe system is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday.\r\n\r\nHeavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with\r\nthis system.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods\r\nand mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next\r\ncouple of days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 20.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 20.2N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 20.4N  97.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 20.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016\r\n400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016\r\n\r\nObservations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\ninvestigating the tropical cyclone indicate that it has not\r\nstrengthened, with no increase in flight-level winds and no\r\nsignificant fall in central pressure since the last mission on\r\nSunday afternoon.  Data from the aircraft show some elongation of\r\nthe circulation from northwest to southeast, and this elongation was\r\nalso suggested in a recent ASCAT overpass as well as in recent GFS\r\nmodel surface wind forecasts.  Very cold cloud tops developed near\r\nthe center, but the area of convection is rather shapeless with\r\nlittle evidence of banding features.  The current intensity is held\r\nat 30 kt.  There is now only a short time remaining for\r\nstrengthening but since the shear has relaxed somewhat over the\r\nsystem, it could still become a tropical storm before reaching the\r\ncoast.  The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest\r\nLGEM guidance.  After landfall, weakening over the mountainous\r\nterrain of eastern Mexico is likely, and the system should dissipate\r\non Tuesday.\r\n\r\nA slow westward motion, at around 280/6 kt, continues.  The track\r\nforecast and its reasoning are the same as in the previous package.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to continue to move generally westward to\r\nthe south of a large mid-level high pressure area.  The official\r\nforecast track is close to the latest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nHeavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with\r\nthis system.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods\r\nand mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico over the next couple\r\nof days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 20.2N  95.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 20.2N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016\r\n1000 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning measured\r\nan 850-mb maximum flight-level wind of 52 kt north of the center\r\nalong with an SFMR surface wind of 40 kt. Based on these data and\r\nthe overall improvement in the satellite presentation, the\r\ndepression was upgraded to a tropical storm. Danielle becomes the\r\nearliest fourth-named storm in the Atlantic basin, surpassing\r\nTropical Storm Debbie of 2012.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/06 kt. Recon wind data indicate\r\nthat Danielle made a jog to the northwest, probably due to\r\nreformation of the low-level center closer to an earlier burst of\r\nstrong convection. However, the general east-to-west deep layer\r\nsteering flow supports a slow but steady motion toward the west or\r\nwest-northwest for the next 24 hours, resulting in Danielle moving\r\ninland along the east coast of Mexico later today or tonight. The\r\nofficial forecast track lies close to the HWRF model.\r\n\r\nSome modest strengthening before landfall cannot be ruled out, but\r\nno rapid or significant strengthening is expected due to Danielle's\r\nimminent interaction with land. Rapid weakening of the wind field is\r\nforecast after landfall occurs, with dissipation expected by 36 h.\r\n\r\nHeavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with\r\nDanielle.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods\r\nand mudslides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple\r\nof days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 20.7N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 20.8N  97.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 20.8N  98.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Danielle","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016\r\n400 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/07 kt using a 12-hour average\r\nmotion. A 1638 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the center of\r\nDanielle has maintained a northwestward motion, which was indicated\r\nby earlier reconnaissance aircraft fix data. In contrast, satellite\r\nanimation shows that the larger scale cyclonic circulation has been\r\nmoving westward. Excluding some internal wobbles, the general\r\nforecast track motion should be toward the west or west-northwest\r\nfor the next 24 hours due to a large low- to mid-level ridge\r\nremaining anchored over the southern Plains and southern United\r\nStates. On the forecast track, which is similar to the HWRF model,\r\nthe center of Danielle should move inland this evening along the\r\neast coast of Mexico near Laguna Tamiahua.\r\n\r\nNo significant strengthening is expected before landfall occurs due\r\nto Danielle's interaction with the mountainous terrain of eastern\r\nMexico and dry mid-level downslope air being entrained into the\r\nsouthern and eastern portions of the circulation. Rapid weakening of\r\nthe cyclone is forecast after landfall occurs, with dissipation\r\nexpected by 36 hours.\r\n\r\nHeavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with\r\nDanielle. More than 8 inches of rain have already occurred at Pozo\r\nRica de Hidalgo, Mexico (station MMPA). These rains could cause\r\nlife-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of\r\neastern Mexico during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 21.3N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 21.4N  97.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 21.4N  98.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Danielle","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-06-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016\r\n1000 PM CDT MON JUN 20 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite and surface data indicate that Danielle made landfall\r\njust north of Tuxpan, Mexico, just before 0000 UTC.  Around\r\nthat time, a sustained wind of 30 kt with a gust to 40 kt was\r\nreported at Tampico in a convective band to the north of the\r\ncenter.  The associated deep convection has gradually weakened\r\nand become less organized during the past 6 to 12 hours.  As a\r\nresult, the initial wind speed was lowered to 35 kt on the\r\nintermediate public advisory at 0000 UTC, and to 30 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  Now that the center has moved over land, rapid weakening\r\nis expected overnight, and the circulation is very likely to\r\ndissipate over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico Tuesday\r\nmorning.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward or 280/7 kt, and this general\r\nmotion should continue until dissipation occurs.\r\n\r\nHeavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with\r\nthis system, and these rains are likely to continue over portions\r\nof eastern Mexico even after the cyclone dissipates.  These rains\r\ncould cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over\r\nportions of eastern Mexico during the next day or so.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 21.2N  97.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 21.2N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Danielle","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-06-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042016\r\n400 AM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016\r\n\r\nSurface data over east-central Mexico indicate that Danielle no\r\nlonger has a well-defined low-level circulation.  Satellite imagery\r\nalso shows that deep convection, primarily associated with the\r\ncyclone's mid-level center, has also vanished overnight.  Therefore\r\nDanielle is declared dissipated, and this is the last advisory.\r\nGlobal models show the remnants of Danielle quickly moving west-\r\nsouthwestward or southwestward across south-central and southwestern\r\nMexico today to the south of a strong mid-level ridge of high\r\npressure centered over the southwestern United States.  The\r\nremnants could emerge in the eastern Pacific waters to the southwest\r\nof Mexico on Wednesday before losing their identity.\r\n\r\nDanielle's remnants should continue to produce heavy rains over\r\nportions of south-central and southwestern Mexico today, especially\r\naround the time of peak diurnal heating.  These rains could cause\r\nlocalized flash flooding and mud slides across the region.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 20.6N  99.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-02 16:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the\r\nstrong wave we have been tracking for days has developed a closed\r\ncirculation center with an estimated pressure of 1001 mb. On this\r\nbasis, advisories on Tropical Storm Earl have been initiated.  This\r\nis the fifth tropical storm of the 2016 hurricane season.\r\n\r\nThe overall convective pattern was a little less organized this\r\nmorning, but recent images indicate that an area of deep convection\r\nis forming near or over the center. The upper-level outflow is not\r\nwell established yet in all quadrants due to some shear. Most of\r\nthe global models show that the upper-level environment should\r\nbecome more favorable with less shear. The NHC forecast calls for\r\nsome intensification, and Earl is expected to be near hurricane\r\nstrength by the time the center approaches the Yucatan peninsula.\r\n\r\nEarl has been moving westward rapidly around 19 kt embedded within\r\nvery strong easterly flow around the periphery of the Atlantic\r\nsubtropical high. The ridge extends westward across the southern\r\nUnited States, and this pattern should maintain the cyclone\r\non a general westward track across Belize and Yucatan during the\r\nnext couple of days. After that time, a weakened Earl should move\r\nover the southern Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico. The cyclone\r\nshould slow down during the next 12 to 24 hours since the steering\r\ncurrents are expected to be weaker. Most of the dynamical guidance\r\nagree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast very closely follows\r\nthe multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1600Z 16.3N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 16.3N  82.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 17.0N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 17.5N  87.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 18.0N  90.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 19.2N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 20.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force reconnaissance plane investigated Earl a few hours\r\nago and measured flight-level winds of about 54 kt in the northeast\r\nquadrant on its last leg. It also measured a minimal central\r\npressure of 1002 mb.  Another Air Force plane will be in Earl\r\ntonight along with the NOAA P3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The\r\nsatellite presentation has not changed significantly during the day,\r\nand Dvorak T-numbers, along with the plane data, yield an initial\r\nintensity of 45 kt. Global models have consistently forecast a\r\nlittle better environment, and the NHC forecast calls for some\r\nstrengthening. Earl could be near hurricane strength as it\r\napproaches the Yucatan peninsula and Belize.\r\n\r\nIt appears that Earl has slowed down as anticipated, and is\r\nnow moving westward or 275 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone is\r\nembedded within the deep easterly flow on the south side of a ridge.\r\nThis flow pattern will continue to steer Earl on a general west to\r\nwest-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed across\r\nBelize and the Yucatan peninsula during the next 2 days or so. After\r\nthat time, Earl will likely move over the southern portion of the\r\nBay of Campeche where it could re-intensify some. There is good\r\nconfidence with this track scenario, and the NHC forecast very\r\nclosely follows the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 16.4N  81.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 16.5N  83.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 17.0N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 17.5N  88.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 18.0N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 19.0N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 20.0N  98.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nDropsonde data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating\r\nEarl several hours ago indicated that the central pressure had\r\nfallen to 996 mb or even lower.  Therefore the intensity was\r\nincreased to 50 kt.  Some higher surface wind speeds were reported\r\nfrom the aircraft's SFMR instrument, but these are believed to have\r\nbeen rain-inflated. The storm is gradually becoming better\r\norganized, with some developing banding features seen on satellite\r\nimages. With low shear and SSTs approaching 30 C along the projected\r\ntrack, additional strengthening is likely and the NHC forecast calls\r\nfor Earl to become a hurricane prior to landfall.  This is in close\r\nagreement with the latest SHIPS guidance and only slightly above\r\nthe model consensus.  Weakening will occur after the cyclone makes\r\nlandfall over Yucatan, and the amount of restrengthening in 2-3\r\ndays is highly dependent on how far Earl moves into the southern Bay\r\nof Campeche.\r\n\r\nBased on aircraft and satellite center fixes, the initial motion is\r\nestimated to be 280/14 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is\r\nessentially unchanged from the previous advisory package.  A large\r\nand nearly stationary mid-tropospheric high pressure system\r\ncentered over the southern Great Plains should prevent the tropical\r\ncyclone from moving significantly northward.  The official forecast\r\ntrack is close to the model consensus for the first 48 hours and is\r\na blend of the GFS and ECMWF tracks thereafter, with the former\r\nmodel's track to the north of the latter one.  This is fairly\r\nsimilar to the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nThe new intensity forecast has necessitated the issuance of a\r\nhurricane warning for the coast of Belize and a portion of the coast\r\nof the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 16.4N  83.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 16.7N  84.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 17.1N  87.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 17.8N  89.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 18.4N  91.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 19.0N  95.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 19.5N  99.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery since 01Z indicates that Earl has formed a\r\nmid-level eye, and ASCAT data near 02Z and 03Z suggests that the\r\ncirculation center has reformed to the south of the previous\r\nforecast track underneath the eye feature.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are 55 kt, and that will be the initial\r\nintensity.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to\r\ninvestigate Earl.\r\n\r\nThe latest satellite imagery suggests that the track excursion\r\ncaused by the reformation is over, and that Earl is resuming a\r\nwestward motion of 280/12.  A large subtropical ridge centered over\r\nthe southern United States should steer Earl generally westward to\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the cyclone moving\r\nnear the Bay Islands of Honduras in 12-18 hours, near or over\r\nBelize and the southern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico in about 24\r\nhours, and over southeastern Mexico and possibly the Bay of\r\nCampeche thereafter.  The new forecast track is similar to, but\r\nsouth of, the previous track based mainly on the initial position,\r\nand it lies a little to the south of the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nEarl is expected to remain in a light to moderate vertical wind\r\nshear environment over very warm sea surface temperatures until\r\nlandfall.  This combination should allow continued strengthening,\r\nand the forecast intensity at landfall has been increased slightly\r\nfrom the previous advisory based on the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\nWeakening will occur after landfall as the cyclone passes over\r\nsoutheastern Mexico. The new forecast track has Earl spending less\r\ntime over the Bay of Campeche than the previous track, so the new\r\nintensity forecast shows less re-intensification than the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nA hurricane watch or warning could be required for the Bay Islands\r\nof Honduras later today due to the new forecast track being closer\r\nto the islands.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 16.1N  83.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 16.5N  85.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 17.0N  87.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 17.5N  90.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 18.1N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane left Earl about 3 hours ago, and\r\nfound that the cyclone was a little stronger. Since that time, the\r\ncloud pattern presentation on satellite has improved, and Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB suggest that Earl could be a hurricane.\r\nAn Air Force plane just reached the cyclone and measured a central\r\npressure of 991 mb with 26 kt from a dropsonde, but so far\r\nno hurricane-force winds. So, the initial intensity is kept at 60\r\nkt. The only factor which could inhibit additional strengthening\r\ntoday is the interaction of the circulation with Central America,\r\nbut nonetheless Earl is expected to increase a little in intensity\r\nbefore landfall in Belize early Thursday. After landfall, weakening\r\nis anticipated, and only slight strengthening is possible if the\r\ncenter of the cyclone moves over the Bay of Campeche.\r\n\r\nEarl has continued to move generally westward about 12 kt. The\r\ncyclone is well embedded within the deep easterly flow around a\r\nstrong and persistent high pressure system over the United States.\r\nThis pattern should continue to steer Earl on a general westward\r\ntrack over Belize and Yucatan, and the latest guidance suggests that\r\nthe cyclone will remain over land or very near the coast over the\r\nsouthern Bay of Campeche. The short time over water reduces the\r\nchances of re-intensification. The NHC forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and follows the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 16.5N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 16.8N  86.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 17.5N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 18.0N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 18.5N  93.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 19.0N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n400 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane which was recently in Earl\r\ndid not measure any hurricane-force winds, and the satellite\r\npresentation has not changed much during the past few hours. The\r\ncloud pattern continues to have a couple of cyclonically curved\r\nconvective bands with an intermittent banding type eye. On this\r\nbasis, the initial intensity is kept at 60 kt in this advisory.\r\nThe cyclone still has several hours over the warm waters of the Gulf\r\nof Honduras, and there are no apparent inhibiting factors to impede\r\nEarl to strengthen a little. The NHC forecast still calls for Earl\r\nto become a hurricane before landfall in Belize. NOAA and US Air\r\nForce Hurricane Hunter planes will be in the area later today.\r\n\r\nThere has been no significant change in track, and the best estimate\r\nof the initial motion is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt.\r\nSteering flow is very well established, and this pattern will\r\ncontinue to move Earl over Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.\r\nEarl is expected to be over water in the southern Bay of Campeche\r\nfor only a few hours, reducing the chances of re-intensification\r\nthere.\r\n\r\nEarl has become a larger system, and its hazards, primarily\r\nrainfall, will affect a large portion of Central America,\r\nthe Yucatan peninsula and eastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 17.1N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 17.5N  87.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 18.0N  90.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 18.2N  92.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 18.5N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 18.5N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1000 PM CDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nEarl has been under close surveillance by Air Force and NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter planes and the Belize Meteorological Service radar\r\nthis evening.  The Air Force Hurricane Hunters found peak 700 mb\r\nflight-level winds of 72 kt which converts to a surface wind of 65\r\nkt, and this is used for the advisory intensity.  Belize radar\r\nimagery shows that the eyewall has been fluctuating between an open\r\nand closed structure over the past several hours.  There is little\r\ntime left for Earl to strengthen before the center reaches the\r\ncoast, and no significant intensification is anticipated before\r\nlandfall.  A steady weakening trend will commence after the\r\ntropical cyclone moves inland.  Based on the latest track\r\nguidance, the center is forecast to only barely emerge into the\r\nextreme southern Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and this should limit\r\nreintensification at that time.  Earl is expected to become a\r\nremnant low and dissipate over the high mountains of south-central\r\nMexico by the weekend or sooner.\r\n\r\nEarl continues to move slightly north of due west or 280/13 kt.\r\nThe cyclone remains embedded in a well-defined steering flow to the\r\nsouth of a large and slow-moving mid-tropospheric high pressure\r\nsystem.  Little change has been made to the previous official\r\nforecast track and the current NHC forecast remains close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nAfter landfall, the biggest concern with Earl is rainfall.  Global\r\nmodels depict the system becoming enveloped within a much\r\nlarger-scale cyclonic gyre that will cover much of southern Mexico\r\nin a couple of days.  This weather pattern will likely lead to\r\ncopious rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches\r\npossible.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 17.4N  87.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 17.7N  89.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 18.2N  91.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 18.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 18.8N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 20.0N  98.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Earl","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n400 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe center of Earl made landfall just southwest of Belize City,\r\nBelize near 0600 UTC.  The last reports from an Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft included a 700-mb flight-level wind of 85\r\nkt, SFMR and dropsonde winds near 65 kt, and a minimum central\r\npressure near 979 mb.  Based on these data, the landfall intensity\r\nis estimated to have been 70 kt.  The initial intensity for this\r\nadvisory is reduced to 65 kt as Earl is now weakening over land.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/13.  A high pressure ridge to the north\r\nof the tropical cyclone should steer it generally westward to\r\nwest-northwestward for the next three days or so.  There is some\r\nspread in the track guidance that is significant for the chances of\r\nthe system emerging over the Bay of Campeche.  The ECMWF and the\r\nGFS show a more northward motion, which would bring the center over\r\nwater.  The UKMET shows a more westward motion, which would keep the\r\ncenter over southeastern Mexico south of the Bay of Campeche.  The\r\nnew forecast track is closer to the GFS and ECMWF in having the\r\ncenter traverse the southern Bay of Campeche between 36-48 hours.\r\nOverall, the new track is an update of the previous track that lies\r\nnear the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nEarl should weaken as it crosses Central America and Mexico, and it\r\nis expected to be a tropical depression by the time the center\r\nreaches the Bay of Campeche.  The cyclone is forecast to spend less\r\nthan 12 hours over water, so the intensity forecast shows no\r\nre-intensification during that time.  After 48 hours, Earl or its\r\nremnants should move over the mountains of central Mexico, which\r\nshould cause the low-level center to dissipate after 72 hours.  It\r\nshould be noted that several global models forecast the development\r\nof a tropical cyclone off the Pacific coast of Mexico during the\r\nnext five days.  If this occurs, it is likely to be associated with\r\nthe remnants of the hurricane, but not a direct continuation of\r\nEarl.\r\n\r\nThe biggest concern with Earl is rainfall.  Global models depict the\r\nsystem becoming enveloped within a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre\r\nthat will cover much of southern Mexico during the next few days.\r\nThis weather pattern will likely lead to copious rains, with\r\nisolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 17.3N  88.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 17.8N  90.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 18.3N  92.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 18.6N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 19.0N  96.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 19.5N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND/REMNANT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1000 AM CDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nEarl is already well inland over northern Guatemala, and although\r\nvisible satellite images still show a vigorous circulation, the\r\nconvection is rapidly decreasing. There are no wind observations\r\nnear the center, but the best estimate of the initial intensity is\r\n45 kt. Since most of the circulation of Earl is forecast to move\r\nover the high terrain of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico, rapid\r\nweakening is anticipated. Earl is expected to degenerate into a\r\ntropical depression tonight and into a remnant low in a day or\r\nso.\r\n\r\nEarl has been moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 10 kt. The\r\ncyclone is trapped south of a ridge, and given that the steering\r\nflow is not expected to change, a continued westward track is\r\nanticipated for the next day or two.  This forecast motion over land\r\nreduces the chances of reintensification in the extreme southern\r\nportion of the Bay of Campeche.\r\n\r\nDespite the current weakening, Earl is capable of producing very\r\nheavy rains over a large portion of Central America and southeastern\r\nMexico. In addition, global models continue to show a much\r\nlarger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern Mexico during the next few\r\ndays. This weather pattern will likely lead to torrential rains,\r\nwith isolated precipitation totals of 18 inches possible.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 17.2N  89.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 17.5N  91.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 18.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 18.5N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 19.0N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 19.5N 100.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n400 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nEarl has continued to spin down as it moves farther inland over\r\nGuatemala.  The coverage of cold convective tops has decreased and\r\nis limited to an area southeast of the center and a rain band about\r\n140 n mi northeast of the center.  Assuming a steady weakening, the\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt.  Earl is forecast to\r\nweaken to a tropical depression tonight and then could become a\r\nremnant low at any time in the next couple of days if the deep\r\nconvection dissipates.  The low-level circulation of Earl or its\r\nremnants should dissipate by 72 hours over the high terrain of\r\ncentral Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now a bit north of due west, 280/09.\r\nThe weakening tropical cyclone should continue moving westward to\r\nwest-northwestward for the next couple of days to the south of a\r\nmid-level ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico and southern United\r\nStates.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one,\r\nand shows the center moving near the coast of the extreme southern\r\nBay of Campeche in about 24 hours before moving back inland.  This\r\ntrack is close to the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nEarl is expected to produce very heavy rains over a large portion of\r\nCentral America and southeastern Mexico.  In addition, global models\r\ncontinue to show a much larger-scale cyclonic gyre over southern\r\nMexico during the next few days.  This weather pattern will likely\r\nlead to torrential rains, with isolated precipitation totals of 18\r\ninches possible.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 17.6N  90.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 17.8N  92.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 18.3N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 18.6N  95.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 19.0N  97.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1000 PM CDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nSomewhat surprisingly, Earl has maintained tropical storm intensity\r\nthis evening.  Observations from Ciudad del Carmen indicated a wind\r\ngust to 46 kt at 2348 UTC during heavy squalls, and the initial\r\nintensity is held at 35 kt.  Since the forecast track takes the\r\ncenter along the Bay of Campeche coast or just offshore during the\r\nnext 24 hours, this could allow the cyclone to at least maintain\r\nits strength on Friday.  Based on the new official intensity\r\nforecast, a tropical storm warning has been issued for the southern\r\nBay of Campeche coast of Mexico.  In 36 hours or so, the center of\r\nEarl should move inland for good over south-central Mexico, and the\r\nsystem is forecast to dissipate in about 48 hours.\r\n\r\nEarl jogged to the west-northwest over the past several hours and\r\nthe initial motion is estimated to be 285/9 kt.  A large mid-level\r\nridge near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should induce a\r\ncontinued west-northwestward to westward motion through the\r\nforecast period.  The official track forecast is close to the most\r\nrecent multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a\r\nlarge portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the\r\ncombination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre\r\nover the area enhances the rainfall potential.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 18.1N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 18.4N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 18.7N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 18.9N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n400 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery, along with Mexican surface and radar data, shows\r\nthat the center of Earl is now near the southern coast of the Bay\r\nof Campeche west-southwest of Ciudad del Carmen.  The associated\r\nconvection is poorly organized, although radar data shows bands of\r\nlow-topped showers that are not currently apparent in infrared\r\nimagery.  There are no recent observations near the area of maximum\r\nwinds over the Bay of Campeche, so the initial intensity is held at\r\n35 kt based on continuity from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 285/10.  A large mid-level ridge near the\r\nnorthern Gulf of Mexico coast should lead to a continued\r\nwest-northwestward to westward motion for the next 48 hours or so,\r\nwith this motion taking the center of Earl along the coast of the\r\nBay of Campeche into mainland Mexico.  The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous track and lies just north of the various\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\nThe center of Earl should emerge over the Bay of Campeche later\r\ntoday before final landfall in mainland Mexico.  However,\r\nsignificant strengthening is not expected due to the proximity to\r\nland and the current level of disorganization.  After landfall,\r\nEarl should weaken and dissipate over the mountains of central and\r\neastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a\r\nlarge portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the\r\ncombination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre\r\nover the area enhances the rainfall potential.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 18.4N  92.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 18.5N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 18.7N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 18.9N  97.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images and surface observations indicate that a large\r\nportion of the circulation is over the southern Bay of Campeche. It\r\nappears that the cloud pattern was beaten hard by the terrain,\r\nbut, one can still see a vigorous cyclonic rotation. This was also\r\nconfirmed by this morning's radiosondes from the area.  I prefer\r\nto keep the initial intensity generously at 35 kt at this time, and\r\nthen adjust it, if necessary, when an Air Force reconnaissance plane\r\nchecks the system later today.  Little change in intensity is\r\nexpected before Earl moves inland again later today or tonight.\r\nThe cyclone is forecast to dissipate on Saturday over the high\r\nterrain of southern Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 9 kt.\r\nA westward or south-of-due-west track is anticipated until\r\nlandfall and beyond. There has not been a change in the guidance,\r\nand the NHC forecast is similiar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains over a\r\nlarge portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico, and the\r\ncombination of Earl with a broader-scale low-level cyclonic gyre\r\nover the area enhances the rainfall potential.  The Mexican Weather\r\nService (SMN) relayed to NHC that about 7 inches (180 mm) of rain\r\nwere measured in Chiapas during the last 24 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 18.6N  94.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 18.7N  95.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 18.5N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 36H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n400 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Earl this\r\nafternoon found a maximum 850-mb-flight-level wind of 59 kt and a\r\npeak SFMR wind of 49 kt in the eastern semicircle. Based on these\r\ndata, the initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt. Additional\r\naircraft SFMR wind data and recent ASCAT surface wind data also\r\nindicate that the 34-kt wind radii have increased outward\r\nconsiderably in the northern semicircle, which has required a\r\nnorthward expansion of the tropical storm warning area along the\r\neast coast of Mexico.\r\n\r\nEarl is moving westward or 275/07 kt. A general westward motion is\r\nforecast to continue until landfall occurs in about 12 hours or so.\r\nAfter that time, a motion toward the west or west-southwest is\r\nexpected as Earl's center interacts with the high terrain of the\r\nSierra Madre Oriental mountains. There has not been any significant\r\nchange in the track guidance, so the new official forecast track is\r\nclose to the previous one and the TVCN consensus model.\r\n\r\nLittle change in intensity is anticipated before landfall occurs\r\nlater tonight. However, the intensity forecasts at 12 and 24 hours\r\nhad to be increased based on Earl's stronger initial intensity. Due\r\nto the large 34-kt wind radii, it is possible that Earl could still\r\nbe a tropical storm when it is located inland at 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe main threat from Earl continues to be heavy rains that could\r\ncause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of Central\r\nAmerica and southeastern Mexico.  The Mexican Weather Service (SMN)\r\nhas relayed several reports of rainfall totals already exceeding 5-7\r\ninches (125-180 mm) as of 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 18.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 18.8N  96.1W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 18.8N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1000 PM CDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern of Earl has changed little in both\r\nconventional and microwave satellite imagery since the last\r\nreconnaissance flight a few hours ago. Therefore, the initial\r\nintensity is being maintained at 50 kt for this advisory. Earl\r\nshould begin to weaken shortly after the center moves inland, and\r\ncontinue to weaken over the next 24 hours. The cyclone could\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low by 24 hours if it moves a little\r\nfaster than currently forecast, which would cause greater\r\ninteraction with the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico.\r\n\r\nEarl continues to move westward at about 275/07 kt. This general\r\nmotion is forecast to continue for the next 24 hours, and Earl is\r\nexpected to make landfall about midway between Veracruz and\r\nAlvarado, Mexico within the next hour. The official forecast track\r\nis similar to the previous advisory track and lies slightly north of\r\nthe consensus model, TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe main threat from Earl will continue to be heavy rainfall that\r\ncould cause flash floods and mudslides across a large portion of\r\nCentral America and southeastern Mexico.  The Mexican Weather\r\nService (SMN) recently relayed reports of additional rainfall totals\r\nof 2-4 inches (50-100 mm) since 8 am EDT/1200 UTC this morning\r\nacross portions of south-central Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 19.0N  95.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...NEAR VERACRUZ\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 19.0N  96.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 19.0N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Earl","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n400 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe center of Earl made landfall near 0200 UTC just south of\r\nVeracruz, Mexico.  Since then, the center has moved farther inland\r\nand the cloud pattern has decayed.  There is little data near the\r\ncenter at this time, so it is estimated that the intensity has\r\ndecreased to 35 kt.  Continued rapid weakening is expected, and the\r\nlow-level circulation of Earl should dissipate over the mountains of\r\nMexico after 12 hours.  The remnants of Earl are expected to move\r\nwestward and interact with an area of disturbed weather along the\r\nPacific coast of Mexico, which could lead to the formation of a\r\ntropical cyclone in that area in 2-3 days time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/9, and a general westward motion is\r\nforecast until the cyclone dissipates.\r\n\r\nThe main threat from Earl and its remnants will continue to be heavy\r\nrainfall that could cause flash floods and mudslides across a large\r\nportion of Central America and southeastern Mexico.  The rain\r\nthreat will continue after the cyclone dissipates.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 19.0N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 19.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Earl","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052016\r\n1000 AM CDT SAT AUG 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe circulation of Earl has become disrupted by the high terrain of\r\nMexico, and since the cyclone no longer has a well-defined surface\r\ncirculation, it is declared dissipated.\r\n\r\nThe remnants, however, should continue to move westward and interact\r\nwith an area of disturbed weather along the Pacific coast of Mexico,\r\nwhich could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone in that area\r\nin about 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center\r\non Earl.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 19.0N  98.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2016\r\n\r\nConvective activity associated with the tropical wave and associated\r\nlow pressure area over the tropical Atlantic has become more\r\nconcentrated and better organized this evening, and a recent ASCAT\r\noverpass indicates that the circulation has become better defined.\r\nBased on these data, this system has been designated a tropical\r\ndepression, and advisories are being initiated at this time. The\r\ninitial wind speed of 30 kt is supported by the scatterometer data.\r\nSome northeasterly shear is affecting the depression, with the\r\ncenter located near the northeastern edge of the primary convective\r\nmass.  The shear is forecast to decrease tonight and remain low\r\nduring the next couple of days which favors strengthening. However,\r\ndry mid-level air is lurking just to the north of the depression,\r\nand intrusions of this unfavorable airmass could arrest development.\r\nThe NHC forecast shows gradual strengthening during the next couple\r\nof days, but it is on the lower side of the guidance, closest to the\r\nLGEM and intensity consensus.  Later in the forecast period,\r\nincreasing southwesterly shear being produced by a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough over the central Atlantic is likely to weaken the\r\ntropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 310/12 kt.  The\r\ndepression is forecast to move generally northwestward into a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The\r\ntrack guidance is in relatively good agreement through 48 hours, but\r\nthere is a large spread between the GFS-based guidance and the ECMWF\r\nlater in the period. The ECMWF and the majority of its ensemble\r\nmembers depict a much weaker and shallower cyclone that turns\r\nwest-northwestward in the low-level flow after 48 hours.  On the\r\nother hand, the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, GFDL, and HWRF take a\r\nstronger cyclone more poleward.  For now, the NHC track is between\r\nthese two distinct solutions, and is located just south of the\r\nmulti-model consensus at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 12.6N  34.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 13.7N  35.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 15.2N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 16.8N  38.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 18.1N  40.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 20.0N  43.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 22.5N  46.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 25.0N  50.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern is gradually becoming better\r\norganized.  It consists of a central mass of deep convection and a\r\nnewly formed band over the northern half of the circulation.  The\r\nlow-level center appears to still be located near the northeastern\r\nedge of the main convective mass, likely due to some northeasterly\r\nshear. Satellite classifications are T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, and\r\nsupport maintaining the initial intensity estimate of 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe northeasterly shear is forecast to decrease while the cyclone\r\nmoves over marginally warm waters during the next 24 to 36 hours.\r\nThese two factors should favor some intensification during this time\r\nframe.  However, the global models, and the ECMWF in particular,\r\nshow the cyclone moving into a much drier environment after 48 hours\r\nand encountering strong southwesterly shear in association with a\r\nmid- to upper-level trough. Thus weakening is forecast to begin by\r\nday 3 despite the cyclone's trek over warmer waters, and there is\r\nthe possibility that the system could degenerate into a remnant low\r\nby day 4 or 5 as depicted in the ECMWF.  The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is somewhat higher than the previous one and the multi-\r\nmodel consensus in the short term but lower later in the forecast\r\nperiod and a little below most of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been responding to a weakness in the subtropical\r\nridge between 40w and 50w by moving on a northwesterly track, and\r\nthe initial motion estimate is 305/13.  The track guidance remains\r\nsplit into two distinct camps, with GFS-based deterministic models\r\nand GFS ensemble members showing a deeper system moving more\r\npoleward.  The ECMWF and its ensemble solutions are much farther to\r\nthe south as a result of the model's forecast of a weaker, shallower\r\nsystem moving on a more westerly course.  Based on the assumption\r\nof a weaker system, the NHC track forecast is adjusted toward the\r\nECMWF solution, and is well south of the previous one and a little\r\nto the left of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 13.2N  35.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 14.3N  36.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 15.5N  38.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 16.8N  39.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 17.8N  41.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 19.2N  44.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 21.6N  48.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 23.6N  52.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 17 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression's overall cloud pattern and low-level wind field have\r\ncontinued to improve, although cloud tops have warmed considerably\r\nnear the center since the previous advisory. An 1139Z ASCAT-B\r\noverpass showed a well-defined low-level circulation center with a\r\ntight radius of maximum winds of only 10-15 nmi. Although there were\r\na few vectors near tropical storm force, and satellite estimates at\r\n1200Z were T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, the intensity is being\r\nmaintained at 30 kt for this advisory due to the sharp decrease in\r\ndeep convection near the center during the past few hours.\r\n\r\nThe modest northeasterly vertical wind shear across the cyclone is\r\nforecast to weaken and veer to the southeast during the next 12\r\nhours, and remain less than 10 kt for the next 36-48 hours, which\r\ntypically favors strengthening. Sea-surface temperatures just below\r\n27C are marginal for intensification and the small cyclone will be\r\nmoving through dry mid-level air with humidity values dropping below\r\n50 percent by 48 hours and beyond, conditions that are generally not\r\nconducive for significant strengthening. But given the tight\r\ninner-core wind field noted in recent ASCAT data, the cyclone is\r\nexpected to be able to mix out any dry air intrusions and slowly\r\nstrengthen for about the next 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond,\r\nhowever, increasing southwesterly to westerly wind shear is expected\r\nto induce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and closely follows the intensity\r\nconsensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300 /13 kt, based primarily on\r\nmicrowave and scatterometer fixes. The NHC model guidance is in\r\ngood agreement on the cyclone moving west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward toward a weakness in the Bermuda-Azores ridge for the\r\nnext 48 hours or so. After that, however, there is significant\r\ndivergence in the models with the GFDL, GFS, and GFS-ensemble mean\r\nmodels taking a stronger and more vertically deep cyclone more\r\ntoward the northwest, whereas the HWRF, UKMET, NAVGEM, and ECMWF\r\nmodels show a weaker and shallower cyclone turning more westward\r\nand moving along the southern periphery of the low-level ridge. As\r\na result, the forecast track depends heavily on the strength and\r\nvertical structure of the cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is a\r\nlittle to the south or left of the previous advisory, but not nearly\r\nas far south as the ECMWF model due to expectations that the cyclone\r\nwill not weaken nearly as much as that model is indicating.\r\n\r\nThe forecast wind radii were decreased somewhat based on the smaller\r\nwind field depicted in recent ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 14.0N  36.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 14.9N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 16.0N  39.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 17.0N  40.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 17.9N  42.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 19.6N  45.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 21.8N  49.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 23.9N  53.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016\r\n\r\nDuring the past 6 hours, the tropical cyclone has made a transition\r\nfrom a large outer banding pattern to more of a CDO-type feature.\r\nAlso, a 1635Z SSMI overpass confirmed the tight inner-core structure\r\nnoted in the two earlier ASCAT passes. Dvorak satellite intensity\r\nestimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, and a 1225Z ASCAT-A\r\noverpass indicated winds of near 35 kt at that time. Based on these\r\ndata, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt and the cyclone is\r\nupgraded to Tropical Storm Fiona.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/14 kt. The latest model guidance\r\nhas come into much better agreement with the previous track\r\nforecast, with the GFS model shifting a little farther south and the\r\nECMWF making a significant shift to the north due to that model not\r\nweakening Fiona as much now as compared to previous forecast cycles.\r\nThese model changes have resulted in a northward shift in the\r\nconsensus models TVCN and GFEX. Given the much better agreement in\r\nthe NHC model guidance, the new track forecast was only shifted\r\nslightly southward of the previous advisory track after 72 hours in\r\norder to move closer to the consensus models.\r\n\r\nThere are no significant changes to the previous intensity forecast.\r\nFiona is a compact tropical cyclone with a radius of maximum winds\r\nof 15 nmi or less, which makes the storm susceptible to sharp\r\nfluctuations in intensity. The aforementioned SSMI satellite pass\r\nalso indicated that the small inner-core region of Fiona now appears\r\nto be insulated from the very dry mid-level air that had earlier\r\neroded the cyclone's convection. That, along with low shear\r\nconditions and marginal SSTs near 27C, should allow for some gradual\r\nstrengthening for the next 36-48 hours, assuming that the cyclone\r\ncan mix out any occasional intrusions of dry air. By 72 hours, the\r\nvertical shear is forecast to increase to around 20 kt from the\r\nsouthwest, which should act to arrest the intensification process\r\nand perhaps even induce some slight weakening. However, by 96 hours\r\nand beyond, the shear is forecast to steadily decrease when the\r\ncyclone will be moving over SSTs greater than 28C. These conditions\r\ncould allow for the compact cyclone to maintain a steady intensity\r\ndespite being embedded in mid-level humidity values of near 50\r\npercent. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and closely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN\r\nthrough 48 hours, and then lies just below the Decay-SHIPS model at\r\n72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 15.1N  37.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 16.0N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 17.0N  40.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 17.8N  42.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 18.7N  43.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 20.3N  47.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 22.6N  51.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 24.6N  55.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 17 2016\r\n\r\nFor a time late this afternoon, it seemed that Fiona might lose all\r\nits deep convection.  However, a new burst developed around 2300 UTC\r\nand has persisted since that time.  An 0026 UTC ASCAT-B pass\r\nrevealed that the cyclone is still producing a small area of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds, and the intensity remains 35 kt.\r\n\r\nFiona has a tough road ahead.  Vertical shear right now is\r\nrelatively low, but it is expected to begin increasing within the\r\nnext 24 hours and then become belligerent out of the southwest by\r\ndays 3 and 4.  In addition, the cyclone is surrounded by dry air,\r\nand any negative impacts that the dry air is already having on the\r\nconvection is likely to be compounded once the shear increases in a\r\nfew days.  With the exception of the GFDL, which makes Fiona a\r\nhurricane by the end of the forecast period, the rest of the\r\nintensity models respond to the unfavorable environment by showing\r\nrelatively little strengthening.  The NHC forecast follows this same\r\nthinking, and it shows Fiona only modestly strengthening during the\r\nnext 36 hours, with some weakening probable by day 3.  Based on the\r\nlatest intensity guidance, the new NHC forecast has been adjusted\r\ndownward from the previous forecast, but it still lies above the\r\nconsensus at most forecast times.\r\n\r\nThe recent ASCAT data helped to fix the center, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is now west-northwestward, or 300/14 kt.  A break\r\nin the mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of Fiona is expected to\r\nto migrate westward during the next few days, but the cyclone's\r\nshallow nature is expected to help maintain a west-northwestward\r\nmotion for much of the forecast period.  The bulk of the track\r\nmodels are tightly clustered on such a heading.  However, the GFDL\r\n(which makes Fiona hurricane) shows a sharp northward turn, while\r\nthe HWRF (which essentially shows no intensification) takes a much\r\nmore southern track.  Since these two scenarios appear to cancel\r\neach other out, the NHC official forecast closely follows the\r\nconsensus models, requiring a westward adjustment to the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 15.5N  39.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 16.3N  40.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 17.1N  41.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 17.8N  43.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 18.6N  45.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 20.6N  49.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 22.5N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 24.5N  57.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016\r\n\r\nCorrected track guidance discussion in third paragraph\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Fiona has increased with the\r\napproach of the diurnal convective maximum, and the cyclone's cloud\r\npattern is better organized than it was yesterday.  Satellite data\r\nsuggest that the low-level center is now located underneath an\r\nirregularly shaped central dense overcast, while a few broken\r\nbanding features have recently developed over the eastern semicircle\r\nof the circulation. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and\r\nT2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, while ADT values are\r\naround T3.0. A blend of these data is used to increase the initial\r\nwind speed to 40 kt.\r\n\r\nGlobal models indicate that large-scale conditions should be\r\nadequately conducive to support some additional strengthening during\r\nthe next 12 to 24 hours.  However, after that time, a substantially\r\ndrier atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear associated with\r\nthe mid-oceanic trough are expected to induce weakening, even though\r\nsea surface temperatures will be higher.  Although not shown\r\nexplicitly in the forecast, atmospheric conditions could become so\r\nhostile that Fiona would degenerate into a remnant low later in the\r\nforecast period as depicted in the ECMWF model. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and the\r\nbulk of the guidance in the short term but is a little lower after\r\n48 hours.\r\n\r\nFiona has been moving west-northwestward to northwestward into a\r\nweakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge between 40w and 50w,\r\nand the initial motion estimate is 300/14.  Fiona should maintain a\r\nsimilar heading but at a reduced forward speed once it becomes a\r\nshallower cyclone in a few days and is steered around the Atlantic\r\nlow-level subtropical ridge.  The NHC track forecast has been\r\nadjusted to the north of the previous one, mostly after 48 hours and\r\nlargely in response to a significant shift in the latest ECMWF\r\nsolution.  The forecast track lies on the western side of the\r\nguidance envelope, well to the left of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 16.2N  40.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 17.0N  41.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 17.9N  43.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 18.7N  44.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 19.8N  46.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 22.1N  50.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 23.8N  53.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 25.6N  56.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 18 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has decreased since the previous advisory due to\r\nFiona moving into the daytime convective minimum period, plus likely\r\nentrainment of dry mid-level air. Satellite classifications remain\r\nT3.0/45 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, but\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT values have increased to T3.2/49 kt. However, the\r\nrecent erosion of the inner-core convection argues for maintaining\r\nthe initial intensity at 40 kt despite the higher ADT value.\r\n\r\nThe forward speed has decreased sharply since the previous advisory,\r\nand Fiona is now moving at 300/07 kt. The recent decrease in forward\r\nspeed has been well advertised by the NHC track guidance for the\r\npast couple of days. The latest model guidance is in much better\r\nagreement on Fiona moving west-northwestward to northwestward toward\r\na break in the subtropical ridge between 50W-55W throughout the\r\nforecast period, and is now converging tightly around the previous\r\nforecast track. Therefore, the new official forecast track is just\r\nan update of the previous advisory track, and lies a little to the\r\nleft of consensus track model, TVCN, due to a strong right bias\r\ncaused by the much stronger and vertically deeper GFDL model.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is a little less straightforward than the\r\ntrack forecast due to mixed dynamic and thermodynamic signals. On\r\none hand, shear conditions are expected to increase to more than 20\r\nkt in 48-72 hours while the cyclone is moving into a much drier air\r\nairmass consisting of near 40 percent mid-level humidity values.\r\nThis combination of negative parameters generally supports\r\nsignificant weakening. However, Fiona will also be moving over\r\nwarmer SSTs of 28-29C and into a region of much cooler upper-level\r\ntemperatures, which will act to generate greater instability and\r\nlikely more vigorous and persistent convection despite the drier\r\nmid-level environment. Given these mixed signals, the new NHC\r\nforecast is an average of the various intensity models, which at 96\r\nhours ranges from hurricane strength in the GFDL model to a 25-kt\r\nremnant low in the Navy-CTCI and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 16.4N  40.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 17.2N  41.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 18.1N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 19.1N  45.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 20.3N  47.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 22.6N  50.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 24.4N  53.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 26.4N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016\r\n\r\nAfter a brief convective hiatus, deep convection with cloud tops of\r\n-70C to -75C has redeveloped into a small CDO feature directly\r\nover the previously exposed low-level circulation center. Satellite\r\nclassifications are T3.0/45 kt and T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB,\r\nrespectively, and UW-CIMSS ADT values have decreased to T3.0/45 kt.\r\nA blend of these values support an initial intensity of 40 kt.\r\n\r\nFiona is moving a little faster toward the northwest, or 300/09 kt.\r\nOther than minor fluctuations in the forward speed of the cyclone\r\ndue to intermittent periods of convective re-organization like the\r\nmost recent episode, the latest model guidance continues to be in\r\nstrong agreement on Fiona moving west-northwestward to northwestward\r\ntoward a break in the Bermuda-Azores High for the next 120 hours.\r\nGiven the tightly packed model guidance about the previous few\r\nforecast tracks, the new NHC track forecast is just an extension of\r\nthe previous advisory, and lies close to but a little slower than\r\nthe consensus model, TVCN.\r\n\r\nThere is no significant change to the previous intensity forecast or\r\nrationale. Despite the earlier sharp decrease in deep convection,\r\nthe inner-core wind field of the compact cyclone has remained quite\r\nrobust based on the lack of no arc cloud lines or outflow boundaries\r\nseen emanating outward from the center in visible satellite today.\r\nAs result, Fiona should be able to generate additional convection in\r\nthe short term and strengthen some during the next 12-24 hours.\r\nAfter that time, the global and regional models remain in good\r\nagreement on the cyclone moving through a band of strong\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt from 36-72 hours,\r\nwhich is expected to induce weakening. However, the amount of\r\nweakening remains uncertain due to continued mixed dynamic and\r\nthermodynamic conditions. Although Fiona will be propagating through\r\nsignificant shear and into a drier airmass, the small cyclone will\r\nalso be moving over warmer SSTs of 28C-29C and into a region of much\r\ncooler upper-tropospheric temperatures, which will produce greater\r\ninstability and generate fairly strong convection that could help\r\noffset the unfavorable shear conditions. Given these mixed signals,\r\nthe official intensity forecast remains an average of the various\r\nintensity models, which at 72 hours still ranges from hurricane\r\nstrength in the GFDL model to a 25-kt remnant low in the ECMWF and\r\nNavy-CTCI models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 17.0N  41.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 17.7N  42.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 18.5N  44.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 19.6N  46.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 20.8N  48.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 23.0N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 25.0N  55.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 27.2N  56.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 18 2016\r\n\r\nA sizable burst of deep convection has been ongoing since late this\r\nafternoon, and recent microwave imagery suggests that the low-level\r\ncenter may be a little closer to the thunderstorm activity than it\r\nwas for most of the day.  Still, Dvorak estimates are unchanged at\r\nT3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and the initial\r\nintensity remains 40 kt.\r\n\r\nFiona's window for any strengthening is narrowing.  SHIPS guidance\r\nis currently analyzing 10-15 kt of south-southwesterly shear, while\r\nthe UW-CIMSS analysis has the shear as high as 20-25 kt.  Despite\r\nthe discrepancy, these values suggest the shear is already\r\nincreasing, and it is expected to increase further and become more\r\nwesterly during the next three days.  Therefore, if the current\r\nburst of convection continues, Fiona has a chance to strengthen\r\nslightly during the next 12 hours and then gradually weaken through\r\ndays 3 and 4.  The forecast trends in the intensity models suggest\r\nthat Fiona could weaken to a tropical depression, which is now\r\nshown in the official forecast.  Environmental conditions appear to\r\nbe a little less hostile by the end of the forecast period, and the\r\nNHC forecast allows for the possibility that Fiona could\r\nrestrengthen after the shear lightens up.  The GFDL continues to\r\nbe an outlier by intensifying Fiona more than the other models, and\r\nthe official intensity forecast is therefore near or just below the\r\nintensity consensus for most of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nMicrowave fixes indicate that Fiona has been moving more slowly\r\ntoward the northwest, or 305/7 kt.  The cyclone is moving toward a\r\nbreak in the subtropical ridge located between 40W-55W, and an\r\namplifying deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic is expected to\r\nmaintain this break for the next several days.  By continuing on a\r\nnorthwestward heading, Fiona is expected to reach the axis of the\r\nsubtropical ridge and turn northward by day 5.  The GFDL is still\r\nwell to the northeast of the rest of the track guidance since it\r\ncarries a much stronger system, but the other models are otherwise\r\nin very good agreement.  Therefore, no significant changes were\r\nmade to the NHC track forecast, which remains close to the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 17.1N  41.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 17.8N  43.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 18.7N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 19.8N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 20.9N  48.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 23.0N  53.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 25.0N  56.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 27.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nFiona hasn't really changed much overall in the past several hours\r\nwith an earlier burst of convection having dissipated and a new\r\nburst taking its place.  Microwave data suggest the center is near\r\nor south of the main area of thunderstorms, which is a sign of\r\nthe ongoing southwesterly shear.  The initial wind speed is kept at\r\n40 kt for this advisory since the Dvorak estimates are the same as\r\nthe previous cycle.  Little significant change is expected with\r\nFiona's intensity today due to gradually increasing shear.  The\r\nstorm should weaken over the weekend as the shear further increases,\r\nalong with the likely entrainment of drier mid-level air.  While the\r\nenvironmental conditions might get less hostile at the end of the\r\nperiod, it is uncertain how much will be left of Fiona at that time\r\nto take advantage of that change, with some suggestion in the global\r\nmodels that Fiona could decay to a remnant low by then.  Thus,\r\nthe new NHC intensity forecast is a bit lower than the previous one,\r\nnear a model consensus than excludes the GFDL (which has looked\r\nconsistently too high).\r\n\r\nA timely AMSR2 pass helped show that Fiona has sped up, and is now\r\nmoving 300/9.  Fiona should move around the Atlantic subtropical\r\nridge for the next few days.  The biggest change to the track\r\nguidance is that all of the models have shifted a few degrees\r\nwestward at long range.  This appears to be due to less of a trough\r\nforecast over the central Atlantic and a weaker representation of\r\nFiona in the global models, both of which would cause the storm to\r\ncontinue moving northwestward for a longer period of time.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast follows the trend of the models, but remains a\r\nfair distance east of the model consensus at days 4 and 5 due to\r\ncontinuity constraints.  It would not be surprising if further\r\nwestward adjustments had to be made later today.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 17.6N  42.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 18.2N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 19.1N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 20.2N  48.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 21.3N  50.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 23.5N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 26.0N  57.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 28.0N  59.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nFiona continues to produce bursts of convection, mainly near and\r\nnorth of the center.  The current burst has weakened during the\r\npast few hours, leaving the low-level center partly exposed south\r\nof the convective area.  Various objective and subjective satellite\r\nintensity estimates range from 35-50 kt, and based on these, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/9.  A low- to mid-level ridge north of the\r\ncyclone is steering Fiona west-northwestward, and this motion\r\nshould continue with some increase in forward speed during the next\r\n48-72 hours.  After that time, a developing weakness in the ridge\r\nis expected to cause Fiona to turn northwestward.  The guidance has\r\nshifted a little westward between 72-120 hours.  Thus, that portion\r\nof the track is also nudged westward, but it lies to the east of\r\nthe various consensus models.\r\n\r\nA combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and\r\nconvergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to weaken for the\r\nnext 3-4 days.  The intensity forecast follows the guidance\r\nconsensus in calling for the cyclone to weaken to a depression by 48\r\nhours, and then remain at about a 30 kt intensity through the rest\r\nof the forecast period.  An alternative scenario is that the system\r\nweakens more than currently forecast and decays to a remnant low\r\nsometime before day 4.  As noted in the previous discussion, the\r\nenvironmental conditions might get less hostile by day 5.  However,\r\nit is uncertain how much of the cyclone might be left to take\r\nadvantage of these more favorable conditions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 17.8N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 18.4N  44.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 19.3N  46.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 20.4N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 21.6N  51.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 24.0N  56.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 26.0N  58.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 28.0N  60.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nFiona continues to produce bursts of convection north of the\r\ncenter, although the center is now mostly exposed to the south of\r\nthe latest burst.  An earlier RapidScat overpass suggested that\r\ntropical-storm-force winds were at best only occurring in the\r\nnorthwest quadrant, and based on these data and the loss of\r\norganization since this morning the initial intensity is decreased\r\nto 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/9.  A low- to mid-level ridge north of the\r\ncyclone is steering Fiona west-northwestward, and this motion\r\nshould continue with some increase in forward speed during the next\r\n48-72 hours.  After that time, a developing weakness in the ridge\r\ncaused by a frontal system moving eastward from the United States\r\nshould cause Fiona to turn northwestward and north-northwestward.\r\nThe guidance has again shifted westward between 72-120 hours.  Thus,\r\nas in the previous advisory that portion of the track is also nudged\r\nwestward, but it remains to the east of the various consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nA combination of a dry air mass, increasing vertical wind shear, and\r\nconvergent upper-level flow should cause Fiona to continue to\r\nweaken. The intensity guidance has mostly trended toward lower\r\nintensities since the last advisory, with the ECMWF model now\r\nforecasting Fiona to weaken to a trough before 120 hours.  Based on\r\nthis, the intensity forecast now calls for Fiona to become a\r\nremnant low after 72 hours.  That being said, the environmental\r\nconditions might get less hostile by 120 hours, and the UKMET/\r\nCanadian models suggest the possibility of re-intensification at\r\nthat time.  In deference to those models, the official forecast does\r\nnot call for dissipation during this forecast period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 18.1N  44.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 18.9N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 19.9N  48.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 21.1N  50.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 22.1N  53.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 24.5N  57.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 26.5N  60.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1800Z 28.5N  61.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nA 2346 UTC ASCAT-B overpass helped to locate the center, which is\r\nbeneath the cirrus canopy but along the southern edge of the deep\r\nconvection.  The scatterometer pass suggested that the maximum\r\nwinds could be as high as 40 kt, but the highest vectors had\r\nquestionable directions and were on the edge of the pass.\r\nTherefore, the intensity remains 35 kt, which is supported by\r\nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nSouthwesterly vertical shear has increased to about 20 kt and is\r\nforecast to go up further during the next 48 hours or so.  Given the\r\nincreasing shear, a relatively dry middle troposphere, and Fiona's\r\nsmall size, the cyclone is expected to gradually degrade during the\r\nnext few days.  The intensity and global models either maintain\r\nFiona's intensity or show weakening through the forecast period, and\r\nthe ECMWF even opens the system up into a trough by day 3 or 4.\r\nGiven that Fiona will likely struggle to maintain deep convection\r\nas environmental conditions worsen, the NHC forecast now shows the\r\ncyclone degenerating into a remnant low by day 3.  Although a\r\nremnant low is carried through day 5, dissipation is possible before\r\nthe end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains west-northwestward but a little faster\r\nat 295/10 kt.  The track models are in good agreement on Fiona\r\naccelerating a bit along this heading during the next 48 hours, and\r\nno significant changes to the NHC forecast was required during that\r\ntime.  After 48 hours, however, the track forecast is highly\r\ncontingent on Fiona's status as a tropical cyclone, a remnant low,\r\nor a trough.  The ECMWF, which dissipates the cyclone, has a track\r\nwell to the south and west of the other models, while the GFS, GFS\r\nensemble mean, and Florida State Superensemble still show a\r\nnorthward turn by day 5.  Regardless, the entire guidance envelope\r\nhas shifted westward significantly after 48 hours.  The NHC\r\nofficial forecast has been moved in that direction, but it still\r\nlies east of the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 18.7N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 19.4N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 20.5N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 21.6N  52.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 22.6N  54.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 24.6N  59.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 26.5N  62.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0000Z 29.0N  63.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nFiona is looking ragged this morning with only a small area of deep\r\nconvection on the northern side of the apparent center of the\r\ncyclone. Dvorak estimates are a bit lower than earlier, but I've\r\nelected to keep Fiona a tropical storm for this advisory given the\r\nearlier ASCAT data, perhaps generously. The cyclone is likely to\r\ngradually weaken for the next few days with strong shear, upper-\r\nlevel convergence, and dry mid-level air in its path. After\r\nconsidering the unfavorable environment ahead, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast is reduced from the previous one, and now shows Fiona as a\r\nremnant low in 48 hours and dissipating by day 5. This forecast\r\ncould be conservative since the ECMWF and UKMET now open up this\r\nsystem into a trough within 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 295/11,\r\nmostly based on extrapolation.  A subtropical ridge over the\r\ncentral Atlantic should keep Fiona moving west-northwestward for\r\nthe next few days.  The long-range track forecast remains highly\r\ncontingent on Fiona's status as a tropical cyclone, a remnant low,\r\nor a trough.  A deeper cyclone would likely take a more northern\r\nturn at the end of the period due to a mid-level trough, while a\r\nweaker cyclone would probably just continue moving to the\r\nwest-northwest (and not feel the trough).  Since the cyclone is now\r\nexpected to be a more shallow system in a few days, it makes sense\r\nto be on the western side of the guidance envelope, which requires\r\nthe new NHC track forecast to be shifted leftward beyond day 2.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 19.2N  46.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 20.0N  48.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 21.1N  50.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 22.1N  53.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 23.1N  56.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 25.0N  61.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 27.0N  63.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nFiona is fighting off southwesterly shear this morning as the center\r\nhas become embedded under the southwestern side of an area of deep\r\nconvection.  The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have held\r\nsteady, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.  Although a\r\nrecent ASCAT overpass missed the center of Fiona, the pass did show\r\n30-kt winds more than 50 n mi east of the center, suggesting that\r\ntropical-storm-force winds could be occurring closer to the center\r\nof circulation. Strong southwesterly shear of 25 to 30 kt is\r\nforecast to persist during the next few days. These unfavorable\r\nconditions combined with dry air along the path of the cyclone\r\nshould induce a gradual weakening trend, and Fiona is expected to\r\nweaken to a tropical depression by tonight or early Sunday morning.\r\nThe ECMWF and UKMET models continue to open this system into a\r\ntrough within 3 days, whereas, the other model guidance lessens the\r\nshear slightly toward the end of the 5-day period and allows Fiona\r\nto survive for the next several days. The official forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and leans toward the ECMWF and UKMET\r\nmodel solutions.\r\n\r\nThe initial position of Fiona is located slightly to the north of\r\nthe previous forecast track, based on recent microwave data. The\r\ntrack forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the low- to mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should keep Fiona moving\r\nwest-northwestward for the next several days.  There remains a fair\r\namount of spread in the guidance, which appears largely dependent\r\non the future strength and status of the cyclone.  The NHC track\r\nforecast lies on the western side of guidance, except for the short\r\nterm forecast positions where a slight adjustment to the north was\r\nmade due to the initial position and motion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 20.3N  47.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 21.2N  49.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 22.3N  52.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 23.3N  54.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 24.2N  57.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 26.2N  61.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 28.2N  63.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Latto\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nFiona's center has again become partially exposed this afternoon in\r\nresponse to strong southwesterly shear of about 30 kt. A blend of\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and ADT values from\r\nCIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, support holding the initial\r\nintensity at 35 kt for this advisory.  Continued hostile upper-level\r\nwinds along with dry air along the path of the storm should induce a\r\nweakening trend, and Fiona is still expected to weaken to a tropical\r\ndepression tonight or Sunday. The ECMWF model opens this system\r\ninto a trough during the next few days, while some of the other\r\nmodels hold onto a closed low through the period. If Fiona survives\r\nthe strong shear during the next 48 hours, there is a possibility\r\nthat the system could continue as a weak tropical cyclone for the\r\nnext several days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one, and leans toward the ECMWF model solution.\r\n\r\nFiona has jogged a bit to the right, and it is now moving\r\nnorthwestward at about 13 kt. The forecast reasoning remains\r\nunchanged from the earlier forecasts, as the low- to mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should keep Fiona moving\r\nwest-northwestward for the next several days.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and is in best agreement\r\nwith the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 21.2N  49.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 22.1N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 23.1N  53.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 24.1N  56.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 25.0N  58.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 27.0N  62.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 29.5N  65.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Latto\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nSomewhat surprisingly, two recent ASCAT passes showed that Fiona is\r\nproducing 45-kt winds in its northeastern quadrant.  This intensity\r\nis also supported by the latest ADT estimate.  Despite the increase\r\nin maximum winds, the next 36 hours will be critical for Fiona's\r\nsurvival as a tropical cyclone.  During this period, westerly shear\r\nof 30 kt will be at its strongest, and mid-level relative humidities\r\nwill be at their lowest.  Therefore, gradual weakening is\r\nanticipated, and it's entirely possible that Fiona could soon\r\nstruggle to maintain organized deep convection.  For now, the NHC\r\nofficial forecast shows Fiona becoming a remnant low by 72 hours.\r\nHowever, there is a lot of uncertainty in this forecast.  If Fiona\r\ncan survive the next 36 hours, it might persist as a weak tropical\r\ncyclone through the end of the forecast period since environmental\r\nconditions do become a little more favorable in a couple of days. It\r\nshould be noted that most of the global models hang onto a weak low\r\nfor at least the next 5 days, with the exception of the ECMWF which\r\nshows the low opening up into a trough by 48 hours.  For now, the\r\nNHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 5 as a compromise.\r\n\r\nFiona's motion has been wavering between west-northwest and\r\nnorthwest, and the latest estimate is 305/13 kt.  Low-level ridging\r\nshould keep Fiona on this general trajectory for the next 72 hours\r\nor so, followed by a northwestward turn with a decrease in speed by\r\nday 4 when the cyclone approaches a stalled frontal boundary off\r\nthe east coast of the United States.  The NHC official forecast has\r\nbeen nudged south and west to be closer to the TVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus, especially toward the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 21.7N  50.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 22.4N  52.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 23.3N  54.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 24.2N  57.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 24.9N  59.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 26.6N  63.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 29.0N  66.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nAfter the earlier convective bursting episode and resultant spin up\r\nof the low-level wind field, strong westerly shear of at least 30 kt\r\nhas stripped away the convective cloud shield, leaving a fully\r\nexposed low-level circulation center that is easy to locate.\r\nAssuming some spin down of the circulation due to the loss of\r\nconvection, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt.\r\n\r\nNow that Fiona's circulation has become a little more shallow, the\r\nlow-level center has turned more westward and the cyclone is now\r\nmoving 295/14 kt. The global models are in good agreement on a\r\nmid-level ridge to the north and northeast of Fiona remaining in\r\nplace for the next few days, which should keep the small cyclone\r\nmoving in a general west-northwest direction through 72 hours. After\r\nthat time, the western portion of the ridge is expected to weaken\r\ndue to an approaching frontal system, which should allow Fiona or\r\nits remnant circulation to slow down and turn northwestward. The new\r\ntrack forecast is essentially just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory track, and lies close to the TVCN consensus model forecast.\r\n\r\nDuring the next 24 hours or so, Fiona is forecast to traverse\r\nthrough a band of strong westerly to northwesterly vertical wind\r\nshear of 25-30 kt and dry mid-level air with humidity values near 40\r\npercent. As a result, gradual weakening is expected due to the small\r\ncyclone likely not being able to sustain deep convection for long\r\nperiods of time. The new intensity forecast holds onto the previous\r\ntrend of Fiona weakening into a remnant low by 72 hours. However, a\r\nlot of uncertainty remains with this intensity forecast. Strong\r\ninstability that will be present due to very warm SSTs of 29C-30C\r\nand a cool upper-level troposphere, which could produce periodic\r\nbursts of intense convection that could sustain the low-level vortex\r\nuntil environmental become more favorable for strengthening on days\r\n4 and 5. Most of the global models continue to depict a weak low for\r\nat least the next 5 days, except for the ECMWF model, which weakens\r\nFiona to an open trough by 48 hours. The NHC intensity remains a\r\ncompromise of these extremes and shows dissipation by day 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 22.2N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 22.9N  53.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 23.8N  56.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 24.5N  58.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 25.3N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 27.0N  64.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 29.7N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nStrong westerly shear continues to take a toll on Fiona.  After\r\nbecoming devoid of convection overnight, new convective cells have\r\ndeveloped around the small circulation, but there is not much\r\norganization to the thunderstorm activity.  Besides, the clouds tops\r\nare already being sheared eastward by strong upper-level westerly\r\nflow.  Satellite intensity estimates are gradually decreasing, so\r\nthe initial wind speed has been lowered to 35 kt.  Fiona will be\r\nmoving through a hostile environment consisting of strong westerly\r\nshear and dry mid-level air during the next day or two.  This\r\nshould result in some additional weakening, and Fiona is forecast\r\nto become a tropical depression during the next 24 hours, and a\r\nremnant low in a couple of days.  If the small circulation can\r\nsurvive the next 72 hours or so, environmental conditions could be\r\nconducive for regeneration late in the forecast period.  The GFS and\r\nUKMET models maintain a weak low over the western Atlantic through\r\nday 5, while the ECMWF depicts an open trough of low pressure by 72\r\nhours.  The NHC forecast maintains continuity with the previous\r\nforecast, and shows dissipation around day 5.\r\n\r\nFiona is moving west-northwestward or 295/14 kt.  A low- to\r\nmid-level ridge over the central Atlantic should continue steering\r\nthe cyclone west-northwestward during the next couple of days.\r\nFiona will be nearing a break in the ridge over the western Atlantic\r\nby mid-week which should cause a northwestward turn and reduction in\r\nforward speed.  The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted\r\nslightly southward and is located between the latest multi-model\r\nconsensus and the previous NHC track prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 22.9N  53.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 23.6N  55.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 24.3N  58.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 25.0N  60.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 25.8N  62.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 27.7N  65.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fiona","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to pulsate over the northern and eastern\r\nportions of Fiona's circulation.  However, there is very little\r\nbanding evident and the cloud tops are being advected quickly\r\neastward due to strong upper-level westerly winds over the cyclone.\r\nThis morning's ASCAT data that arrived just after the release of the\r\nprevious advisory indicated peak winds of 35 kt, which was in line\r\nwith the the earlier intensity estimate.  Since there has been\r\nlittle change in organization today, the initial wind speed will\r\nremain 35 kt for this advisory.  Strong westerly shear is forecast\r\nto persist during the next day or so.  This, combined with dry\r\nmid-level air, should result in weakening, and Fiona is expected to\r\nweaken to a tropical depression during the next 24 hours, and become\r\na remnant low in a couple of days.  If Fiona or its remnants survive\r\nthe next few days, conditions could become somewhat conducive for\r\nregeneration or restrengthening later in the forecast period.  The\r\nlatest runs of GFS and UKMET models continue to maintain a weak low\r\nthrough the 5-day forecast period, whereas the ECMWF shows\r\ndissipation in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC forecast continues to maintain\r\ncontinuity, and indicates dissipation by day 5.\r\n\r\nFiona continues to move quickly west-northwestward to the south of a\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic.  The cyclone will\r\nbe nearing the western portion of the ridge in a couple of days,\r\nwhich is expected to cause Fiona to slow down.  After 72 hours,\r\nFiona, or its remnants, should turn northwestward around the western\r\nportion of the ridge.  Due to model differences in the strength and\r\ndepth of Fiona after 48 hours, the spread in the track guidance is\r\nquite large beyond 3 days.  The updated NHC track is near the multi-\r\nmodel consensus, which is closer to the GFS and GFS ensemble mean\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 23.4N  54.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 23.9N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 24.7N  59.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 25.4N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 26.3N  63.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 28.4N  66.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 30.5N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fiona","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to sputter near the center of Fiona, with\r\neach successive burst a little smaller and less organized than the\r\nprevious ones that sheared off in the strong westerly upper-level\r\nwinds.  Given that earlier ASCAT data only showed a few 35-kt winds\r\nand the decrease in convective organization since that time, the\r\ninitial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is also in agreement with\r\nthe latest TAFB Dvorak estimate.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast remains tricky.  Fiona has been slowly\r\nweakening due to about 30 kt of westerly wind shear and mid-level\r\ndry air, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone becoming a remnant\r\nlow in the next 24 to 36 hours.  However, the shear is forecast to\r\ndecrease to 10 kt or less by 48 hours and the mid-levels begin to\r\nmoisten according to the SHIPS model forecast.  Therefore, if Fiona\r\ncan survive the next 24 to 36 hours, the environment will become\r\nmore conducive for restrengthening or maintaining the system as a\r\ntropical cyclone.  The global models still disagree on the fate of\r\nFiona, with the ECMWF showing dissipation in 2-3 days while the GFS\r\nand UKMET keep Fiona as a weak low through 5 days.  The NHC forecast\r\nmaintains continuity and indicates dissipation in 5 days as a\r\ncompromise between these possibilities.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/16, as Fiona continues to move\r\nquickly west-northwestward under the influence of a low- to mid-\r\nlevel ridge over the central Atlantic.  Fiona, or its remnants, will\r\nmove around the western side of the ridge during the next several\r\ndays, which should result is a poleward turn and a decrease in\r\nforward speed.  The new NHC forecast is largely an update of the\r\nprevious one through dissipation.  There continues to be a fair\r\namount of cross-track spread late in the period, and the NHC track\r\nstill favors the GFS solution and lies to the right of the multi-\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 23.8N  56.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 24.5N  58.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 25.3N  60.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 26.2N  62.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 27.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 29.0N  67.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 30.5N  68.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fiona","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough deep convection has continued to pulse near the center of\r\nFiona, recent scatterometer wind data and various satellite\r\nclassifications support maintaining the small but remarkably\r\nresilient cyclone as a 30-kt tropical depression. The intensity\r\nforecast still remains something of an enigma. Strong westerly wind\r\nshear is forecast to persist for the next 12-18 hours, after which\r\nthe upper-level winds relax somewhat and become a little more\r\nconducive for strengthening to occur. However, dry mid-level\r\nair of 40-50 percent humidity is also forecast to surround the\r\ncyclone, which could act to hinder the development of persistent\r\ndeep convection for the next 24-36 hours. Therefore, if Fiona\r\ncan survive the aforementioned hostile conditions during the next 24\r\nhours or so, then some restrengthening or maintaining the status as\r\na tropical cyclone is possible.  The global models still disagree on\r\nthe future of Fiona and have flipped-flopped, with the ECMWF no\r\nlonger showing dissipation in 5 days, which is similar to the UKMET\r\nsolution, whereas the GFS now shows Fiona degenerating into an open\r\ntrough between 96-120 hours. The NHC forecast maintains continuity\r\nand indicates dissipation in 5 days as a compromise between these\r\npossibilities.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 290/16 kt. Although there is\r\nuncertainty in the future status of Fiona, the NHC model guidance\r\nis in pretty good agreement on the track of the cyclone for the\r\nnext 72 hours. The small cyclone is forecast to move quickly\r\nwest-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer ridge for the next 3 days, and then slow down\r\nconsiderably on day 4 and turn northward into a weakness in the\r\nridge. The new official forecast track is basically just an update\r\nof the previous track through 72 hours, and then is a little to\r\nthe right of the previous forecast on day 4, which leans closer to\r\nthe solutions of the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 24.4N  58.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 25.0N  60.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 25.8N  62.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 26.6N  64.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 27.6N  65.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 29.8N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 31.3N  67.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fiona","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite depiction of Fiona currently features an exposed\r\nlow-level circulation with a few small areas of convection\r\nsoutheast of the center.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB are 30 kt, while the various objective estimates\r\nrange from 25-45 kt.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt based\r\nmainly on the subjective estimates.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast that the current westerly vertical\r\nshear will subside somewhat by 48 hours as Fiona moves under an\r\nupper-level trough into an area of easterly upper-level winds to\r\nthe north of the trough.  By 72 hours, the models forecast the\r\ncyclone or its remnants to encounter a second trough, which should\r\nproduce another round of strong southwesterly shear. Based on the\r\npremise that the cyclone will not be able to respond to the brief\r\nperiod of more favorable conditions, the new intensity forecast\r\ncalls for Fiona to gradually decay and become a remnant low in about\r\n36 hours. This would be followed by the system weakening to a trough\r\nafter 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 285/16.  The guidance remains in good\r\nagreement on the forecast track through 72 hours, with Fiona moving\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward toward a developing break in\r\nthe subtropical ridge.  Beyond that time, the guidance diverges,\r\nwith the ECMWF turning the remnants of the system northeastward\r\nwhile the GFS and UKMET show a westward turn.  The new forecast\r\ntrack will compromise between these extremes in showing a slow\r\nnorth-northwestward motion.  The new forecast track is shifted a\r\nlittle to the west of the previous track and lies near the various\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 24.6N  59.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 25.3N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 26.1N  63.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 27.0N  65.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 28.1N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 30.0N  68.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 31.5N  68.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fiona","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nA new burst of convection has developed near the center of Fiona\r\nduring the past several hours.  However, this increase was not\r\nsignificant enough to affect the subjective satellite intensity\r\nestimates, which remain at 30 kt.  This is also in good\r\nagreement with earlier ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast that the current westerly vertical\r\nshear will subside somewhat by 36-48 hours as Fiona moves under an\r\nupper-level trough into an area of easterly upper-level winds to\r\nthe north of the trough.  By 72 hours, the models forecast the\r\ncyclone or its remnants to encounter a second trough, which should\r\nproduce another round of strong southwesterly shear. The\r\nintensity forecast is still based on the premise that the cyclone\r\nwill not be able to respond to the brief period of more favorable\r\nconditions, and it calls for Fiona to gradually decay and become a\r\nremnant low in about 48 hours. This should be followed by the system\r\nweakening to a trough after 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 285/15.  The guidance remains in good\r\nagreement on the forecast track through 72 hours, with Fiona moving\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward toward a weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  Beyond that time, the guidance diverges,\r\nwith the ECMWF turning the remnants of the system northeastward\r\nwhile the GFS and UKMET show a westward turn.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is again a compromise between these extremes in showing a slow\r\nnorth-northwestward motion.  Overall, the track guidance has\r\nshifted westward since the previous advisory, and as a result the\r\nforecast track has also shifted a little to the west.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 25.1N  61.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 25.6N  63.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 26.5N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 27.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 28.3N  67.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 30.5N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 31.5N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fiona","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nFiona is a very disorganized tropical cyclone.  The associated deep\r\nconvection has been sputtering and lacking in organization.  The\r\ncurrent intensity is held at 30 kt in accordance with a Dvorak\r\nestimate from TAFB.  Strong westerly shear has been affecting the\r\ntropical cyclone, but this shear is forecast to abate in 12 to 24\r\nhours as the system moves away from an upper-level trough and into\r\na region of upper-level easterlies.  By 48 hours or so, however,\r\nthe shear over the cyclone should be increasing due to another\r\ntrough just off the U.S. east coast.  Given its current state,\r\nFiona is not expected to take much advantage from the reduced shear\r\nand instead will likely degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours,\r\nor sooner.  The official intensity forecast is below the consensus\r\nguidance, and follows the trend shown in the global models.\r\n\r\nThe center is not easy to locate on night time imagery, but the\r\nbest guess at the initial motion is a slightly slower 290/13 kt.\r\nFiona is expected to turn northwestward with some deceleration as it\r\nheads for a break in the subtropical ridge.  The official track\r\nforecast is very close to the latest dynamical model consensus,\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 25.5N  62.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 25.9N  63.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 26.7N  65.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 27.7N  67.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 28.7N  68.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 30.0N  70.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 30.5N  71.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fiona","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nFiona is barely holding on as a tropical cyclone with a small burst\r\nof deep convection confined mainly to the southeastern quadrant due\r\nto moderate to strong northwesterly vertical wind shear. The\r\ninitial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt based on a Dvorak\r\nintensity estimate of 2.0/30 kt from TAFB, and an ADT estimate of\r\nT2.2/32 kt from UW-CIMSS.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a little slower at 290/11 kt. Fiona is\r\nforecast to gradually turn northwestward and decelerate as the\r\nsmall cyclone moves toward and into a break in the Bermuda-Azores\r\nridge. The NHC forecast track is down the middle of the tightly\r\npacked model guidance, and lies close to consensus track model TVCN.\r\n\r\nStrong westerly to northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been\r\nplaguing Fiona for the past several days is forecast to weaken\r\nconsiderably during the next 36 hours, which would normally support\r\nsome strengthening. However, the small cyclone is expected to remain\r\nembedded in a region of dry mid-level air with humidity values\r\nless than 60 percent during that time, decreasing to less than 50\r\npercent by 72 hours, which should inhibit the development of\r\npersistent deep convection near the center. The result is that Fiona\r\nis forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 48 hours, if not\r\nsooner.  The official intensity forecast remains below the consensus\r\nmodel IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM models, and instead follows the\r\nweakening trend depicted in the global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 25.8N  63.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 26.2N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 27.1N  67.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 28.1N  68.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 28.9N  69.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 30.0N  70.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 30.6N  71.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Fiona","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062016\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Fiona has lost even more\r\norganization this morning with only a weak, elongated circulation\r\nand no organized deep convection.  Thus, Fiona no longer meets the\r\nrequirements of a tropical cyclone and this is the last advisory.\r\nThe initial wind speed is reduced to 25 kt in accordance with the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates.  While wind shear is forecast to decrease,\r\nthe low's structure has lost so much organization that it is not\r\nlikely to take advantage of the more conducive conditions.  In\r\naddition, dry mid-level air near the circulation is likely to limit\r\nany organized convection. Thus regeneration is not expected at this\r\ntime.  The low should move northwestward into a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge, then westward as the ridge restrengthens.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 26.1N  64.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 26.6N  66.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 27.5N  67.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 28.4N  69.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 29.0N  69.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 29.5N  71.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seven","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nThe low pressure area located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde\r\nIslands has developed a well-defined circulation and sufficient\r\norganized convection to be considered a tropical depression.\r\nMicrowave imagery suggests that the system is likely still\r\nconsolidating, with two or more vorticity centers rotating around\r\na mean center.  The initial intensity is set to 30 kt in agreement\r\nwith a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/16.  The cyclone is on the south side of\r\na deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and as a result it\r\nshould move generally west-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours.\r\nBeyond that time, the cyclone is forecast to turn northwestward\r\ntoward a weakness in the ridge over the central Atlantic.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the\r\nforecast track lies near the consensus models.\r\n\r\nThe depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate\r\neasterly vertical shear.  This, combined with warm sea surface\r\ntemperatures, should allow strengthening. One possible negative\r\nfactor, however, is a tongue of African dust/dry air wrapping\r\naround the west side of the circulation.  On that basis that the\r\ndry air will not stop development, the intensity forecast calls for\r\nsteady strengthening through 72 hours.  After that time, arrested\r\ndevelopment is likely due to the cyclone encountering moderate to\r\nstrong westerly vertical shear.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 12.1N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 12.4N  31.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 13.2N  34.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 14.5N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 16.2N  39.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 19.7N  44.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 23.8N  50.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 26.8N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven/Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective organization of the tropical cyclone has continued\r\nto increase this evening.  A couple of well-defined curved bands of\r\nconvection now wrap more than halfway around the center and some\r\ncold cloud tops have recently developed near the center.  As a\r\nresult, subjective Dvorak T-numbers have increased to T2.5 and\r\nsupport upgrading the system to a 35-kt tropical storm.  Gaston\r\nbecomes the seventh tropical storm of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane\r\nseason.\r\n\r\nGaston is forecast to move over warm water and remain in a low wind\r\nshear environment during the next couple of days.  These favorable\r\nconditions should allow for steady strengthening, and Gaston is\r\nforecast to become a hurricane in about 36 hours, which agrees with\r\nthe majority of the intensity guidance.  In about 3 days, the\r\nglobal models suggest that Gaston will be nearing an upper-level\r\nlow over the central Atlantic that could cause an increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear over the system.  This should halt\r\nintensification, and the NHC forecast calls for little change in\r\nstrength after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is being steered west-northwestward to the south\r\nof deep-layer ridge over the eastern Atlantic.  A west-northwestward\r\nmotion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the\r\nnext day or so.  After that time, a weakness in the subtropical\r\nridge over the central Atlantic should cause Gaston to turn\r\nnorthwestward.  The track guidance remains in very good agreement,\r\nand the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 12.6N  30.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 13.0N  33.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.0N  36.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 15.3N  38.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 17.1N  41.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N  46.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 25.0N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 28.0N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nThunderstorm activity has continued to become better organized since\r\nthe previous advisory, especially in the inner-core region. In\r\naddition, a 0556Z GPM microwave overpass indicated that a\r\n15-20-nmi-diameter, closed low-level eye feature had developed. The\r\ninitial intensity as been increased to 45 kt based on a consensus\r\nDvorak satellite intensity estimate of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB,\r\nwhich is supported by a UW-CIMSS ADT value of T2.9/43 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/17 kt. Gaston is expected to\r\nmove west-northwestward for the next 72 hours along the southern\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast\r\nof the cyclone. After that time, a gradual turn toward the\r\nnorthwest is forecast as Gaston moves into a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge. The models are in excellent agreement on this\r\ntrack scenario and are closely packed through day 3, with a large\r\nspread in the model tracks occurring after that time due to\r\ndifferences in the timing of when Gaston will make the poleward turn\r\nthrough the break in the ridge. The official forecast is similar\r\nto the previous advisory track, and lies a little to the left of the\r\nconsensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe aforementioned eye feature, in conjunction with low shear\r\nconditions, well-defined upper-level anticyclonic outflow, SSTs\r\nnear 28 deg C, and mid-level humidity values near 70 percent,\r\ngenerally would support a period of rapid intensification for the\r\nnext 24 hours or so. However, the current forecast follows the trend\r\nof the previous advisory and shows strengthening at a more typical\r\nrate of 20 kt/24h for the next 36 hours due to a narrow band of dry\r\nair that appears to have penetrated into the inner core, which will\r\ntake some time to mix out. After that time, the intensity is\r\nleveled off due to the cyclone moving through a band of strong\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear, which should disrupt both the\r\nconvective and upper-level outflow patterns. The initial intensity\r\nis near the IVCN intensity consensus model through 24 hours, and\r\nthen a little above that and near the SHIPS model. However, the\r\nnew intensity forecast lies well below the GFS model output, which\r\nis forecasting Gaston to become a major hurricane around 120 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 13.2N  32.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 13.9N  34.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 15.2N  37.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 16.8N  40.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 18.5N  43.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 22.6N  47.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 26.5N  51.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 29.4N  53.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nGaston continues to intensify.  The cyclone's cloud pattern has been\r\ngradually transitioning from a curved-band pattern to a central\r\ndense overcast (CDO).  Within the formative CDO, a ragged eye-type\r\nfeature has occasionally been evident during the last few hours.  A\r\nsatellite classification of T3.5 is used to increase in the initial\r\nintensity estimate to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest UW-CIMSS\r\nADT values.\r\n\r\nOnly light vertical wind shear is forecast to affect Gaston during\r\nthe next 24 to 36 hours while the cyclone moves over marginally\r\nwarm waters and through a generally moist environment.  These\r\nfactors suggest that further intensification is likely during this\r\nperiod of time.  By 48 hours, Gaston should encounter increasing\r\nsouthwesterly to westerly flow at upper-levels associated with a\r\npotent trough over the east-central Atlantic.  In the very least,\r\nthe forecast shear and a drier atmosphere associated with this\r\nfeature should result in an arrested development phase, if not\r\nweakening.  Late in the forecast period, global models indicate a\r\nreduction of the shear while Gaston is over warmer waters of 29 deg\r\nC, which could allow for some re-strengthening.  Through 36 hours,\r\nthe NHC intensity forecast is a bit above the multi-model consensus\r\nand closest to the FSU Superensemble output and the LGEM. After that\r\ntime, the forecast trends toward the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/18.  Gaston is being steered\r\nquickly toward the west-northwest around the western extension of\r\na mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from North Africa.\r\nThe ridge's orientation begins to change as Gaston approaches a\r\nsignificant break in the subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic,\r\nwhich results in a northwestward heading and a reduction in\r\nforward speed during the next few days.  A northward turn with an\r\neven greater decrease in forward speed is expected by 120 hours\r\nonce Gaston enters the weakness over the central Atlantic.  The\r\nlatest NHC track forecast is largely similar to the previous one\r\nand close to the model consensus aids.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 13.8N  34.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 14.6N  36.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 16.1N  39.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 17.8N  42.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 19.8N  44.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 24.2N  48.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 27.7N  52.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 30.7N  53.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Gaston has not changed much during the past\r\nseveral hours, although perhaps the convection has become more\r\nsymmetric.  Satellite classifications are about the same as before,\r\nso the initial wind speed remains 55 kt.  Gaston has about 24-36\r\nhours to intensify before southwesterly vertical wind shear\r\nassociated with a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to increase.\r\nThis shear should result in some weakening of the cyclone in the\r\n2 or 3 day time frame. Thereafter, Gaston moves away from the\r\ntrough, and since the cyclone should be over warm waters near 29C,\r\nsome restrengthing is likely.  Considering the complexity of the\r\nscenario, the guidance is in relatively good agreement on this\r\npattern.  The official forecast follows the trend of the previous\r\nforecast and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/16.  Gaston should gradually turn\r\nnorthwestward during the next couple of days as it moves around the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  Guidance is in very good agreement on the\r\nforecast during that time, and little change is made to the\r\nprevious NHC track in the shorter term.  Beyond 3 days, a break in\r\nthe subtropical ridge is forecast, although the models are not in\r\ngreat agreement on exactly what longitude Gaston reaches before its\r\nlikely recurvature.  Overall, the model guidance has shifted a bit\r\nwestward, and the latest NHC track forecast is shifted in that\r\ndirection.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 14.2N  35.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 15.2N  38.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 16.8N  40.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 18.7N  43.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 20.8N  45.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 25.5N  49.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 28.5N  53.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 31.0N  54.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nGaston's cloud pattern has a figure-nine appearance, with an\r\napparent dry slot over the southwest quadrant, and lacks a\r\nwell-defined CDO at this time.  The intensity is held at 55 kt in\r\nagreement with subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.  The\r\nsystem has fairly well-defined upper-level outflow and is expected\r\nto remain in a low-shear environment for the next day or so.\r\nTherefore, the cyclone is likely to intensify into a hurricane in 12\r\nto 24 hours.  In about 36 hours, however, Gaston should encounter\r\nincreasing southwesterly shear associated with an upper-tropospheric\r\ntrough near 50-55W.  This should at least temporarily halt the\r\nintensification process, and probably cause a little weakening.\r\nThe global models indicate that Gaston will pass by the trough in 72\r\nhours, and reintensification should commence around that time.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is near the high end of the guidance\r\nmodels through 72 hours, and close to the model consensus\r\nthereafter.\r\n\r\nThe motion continues toward the west-northwest, or 290/15 kt.\r\nGaston should gradually turn toward the northwest in response to a\r\nbreak in the subtropical ridge near 60W.  The official track\r\nforecast, which is very similar to the previous one, follows the\r\nlatest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.7N  37.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 15.8N  39.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 17.5N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 19.5N  44.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 22.0N  46.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 26.5N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 29.5N  54.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 31.5N  55.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016\r\n\r\nA 0414 UTC AMSR2 microwave image revealed that Gaston's structure\r\nhas improved with the development of a well-defined low-level cloud\r\nring and a mid-level microwave eye.  However, the mid-level center\r\nis displaced about 25 n mi to the northeast of the low-level\r\ncenter.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are both\r\nT4.0/65 kt, but objective numbers are still between 55-60 kt.  Given\r\nthe tilted structure of the cyclone, the initial intensity is only\r\nraised to 60 kt on this advisory.\r\n\r\nUniversity of Wisconsin CIMSS shear analyses indicate that 10 kt\r\nof southwesterly shear is affecting Gaston, which could explain\r\nthe cyclone's tilted structure.  The shear is expected to remain low\r\nenough during the next 24 hours to allow Gaston to strengthen to a\r\nhurricane later today.  However, the intensification trend should be\r\ninterrupted after 24 hours, continuing through day 3, when Gaston\r\nmoves into a higher shear zone to the east of a mid-/upper-level\r\nlow.  Some strengthening is then probable on days 4 and 5 when\r\nGaston moves north of the upper low into a lower-shear environment.\r\nThe intensity models are in very good agreement on this general\r\nscenario, and the official NHC forecast was only lowered a bit at\r\n36 and 48 hours to be more in line with the IVCN consensus.\r\n\r\nTracking the low-level center observed in microwave data yields a\r\nmotion of 290/15 kt.  Gaston is approaching a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge caused by the aforementioned mid-/upper-level\r\nlow, and the steering currents should cause the motion to become\r\nnorthwestward later today and continue along that heading for the\r\nnext four days.  By day 5, Gaston is expected to slow down and turn\r\nnorthward to the west of a mid-level high.  There is lower-than-\r\nnormal spread among the track guidance for the entire five-day\r\nforecast period, and the NHC forecast continues to closely follow\r\nthe TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 14.9N  38.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 16.2N  40.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 18.2N  42.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 20.4N  45.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 22.9N  47.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 26.9N  52.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 29.5N  55.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 31.5N  55.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL CCA\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 24 2016\r\n\r\nCorrected for initial intensity\r\n\r\nGaston's overall cloud pattern has not changed much in organization\r\nsince the last advisory.  The low-level center is located underneath\r\na small central dense overcast (CDO), with hints of a prototype eye\r\nwithin the convective mass.  A solid band, attached to the CDO,\r\nwraps around the eastern half of the circulation.  A 1234 UTC ASCAT\r\npass supports keeping the initial wind estimate at 60 kt.\r\n\r\nGaston could still reach hurricane strength today.  However, the\r\nshear associated with a potent mid- to upper-level trough along 52W\r\nis forecast to greatly increase over Gaston and peak in 36 to 48\r\nhours.  Even though the cyclone will gradually be moving over warmer\r\nwaters at that time, the shear should be enough to arrest its\r\ndevelopment or perhaps even result in weakening.  By 72 hours,\r\nGaston's involvement with the trough should lessen and the shear\r\nshould decrease.  Much lower westerly shear is forecast toward the\r\nend of the forecast period, which should give Gaston an opportunity\r\nto re-strengthen, and perhaps significantly, as it moves over waters\r\nof around 29 deg C.  The new NHC intensity forecast is reduced some\r\ncompared to the previous one through 48 hours, but shows slightly\r\ngreater intensification by 120 hours.  The official forecast is in\r\ngenerally in good agreement with the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe latest fixes indicate that Gaston's heading has a much greater\r\nnortherly component, and the long-term initial motion estimate is\r\n305/14.  Gaston is expected to move northwestward between a\r\nsubtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic and the aforementioned\r\ntrough to the west during the next 3 days.  After 72 hours, Gaston\r\nshould gradually turn north-northwestward and northward with a\r\nconsiderable decrease in forward speed, when it encounters a more\r\nsubstantial break in the Atlantic subtropical ridge along 60W.  The\r\nECMWF shows less ridging and makes Gaston vulnerable to the mid-\r\nlatitude westerlies earlier, with the model showing recurvature\r\nbefore 120 hours.  The bulk of the guidance, however, lies farther\r\nwest, with these models showing more ridging north of Gaston through\r\nday 5.  The new track forecast is a little right of the previous\r\none through 72 hours in response to the cyclone's abrupt change in\r\nheading since the last advisory and is close to a blend of the\r\nECMWF and GFS solutions.  The track beyond 72 hours was adjusted\r\nwestward and remains close to a ECMWF/GFS model blend.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 16.1N  39.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 17.5N  41.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 19.6N  43.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 21.9N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 24.3N  47.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 27.8N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 30.5N  55.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 32.2N  56.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016\r\n\r\nGaston is being affected by southwesterly vertical shear associated\r\nwith a strong mid- to upper-level trough and cut-off low seen in\r\nwater vapor imagery near 26n 51w.  The shear has caused the\r\nlow-level center to become partially exposed while much of the\r\ndeep convection has been shunted to eastern half of the circulation.\r\nIn spite of the degraded satellite presentation, dropsonde data\r\nfrom the unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft investigating Gaston\r\nsupport keeping the intensity at 60 kt.  In fact, additional\r\nobservations from the ongoing mission might reveal that the system\r\nis even a little stronger than this estimate.\r\n\r\nGaston is in for a prolonged period of strong southwesterly shear\r\nfor the next 36 to 48 hours, with the shear possibly peaking around\r\n30 kt during that time.  The considerable shear is expected to\r\ninduce weakening, and it is possible that more weakening could occur\r\nthan indicated in the forecast despite the cyclone's moving over\r\nwarmer waters.  Once Gaston's interaction with the trough lessens in\r\nabout 2 days, the cyclone should reach 29 deg C water when the\r\nshear diminishes.  This should give Gaston an opportunity to\r\nre-intensify for at least a couple of days before the models\r\nindicate an increase in shear at the end of the forecast period.\r\nThe intensity forecast is reduced relative to the previous one and\r\nis a little below the multi-model consensus through 48 hours, but\r\nthen reverses and is above the consensus aids from 72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nGaston's heading is now definitively northwestward, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 315/14.  A continued northwestward motion is\r\nlikely for the next few days as Gaston moves between one cell of the\r\nsubtropical ridge centered over the eastern Atlantic and the cut-off\r\nlow to the northwest.  After 72 hours, Gaston should approach a more\r\nsignificant weakness in the Atlantic subtropical ridge around 60w\r\nand slow while turning north-northwestward to northward.  There are\r\nsubstantial model differences again this cycle, with the ECMWF\r\nindicating a weaker subtropical ridge.  The weaker ridge makes\r\nGaston more vulnerable to the mid-latitude westerly flow over\r\nthe North Atlantic, which results in an earlier recurvature.\r\nHowever, the bulk of the guidance has a stronger ridge, and thus\r\nhave solutions that go much farther west.  No major changes have\r\nbeen made to the previous forecast in the short term but the track\r\nhas been adjusted much farther to the left after 72 hours, in the\r\ndirection of but not as far left as the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 17.4N  40.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 18.8N  42.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 21.0N  44.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 23.5N  46.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 25.7N  49.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 28.3N  54.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 30.1N  57.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 31.6N  58.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain/Franklin\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 24 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from all agencies, recent ASCAT\r\nmeasurements, and numerous dropsondes from the unmanned NASA\r\nGlobal Hawk aircraft indicate that the initial intensity of Gaston\r\nremains at 60 kt. Strong upper-level westerlies blowing around the\r\nbase of an upper low to the northwest of Gaston are already\r\naffecting the symmetry of the cyclone, and the low-level center is\r\non the western edge of the convection. This strong westerly shear is\r\nexpected to last for about 36 hours, resulting in some weakening.\r\nMost of the global models move the upper low toward the southwest,\r\nand in about 2 days, Gaston will again be in a favorable environment\r\nfor intensification.  On this basin, the NHC forecast weakens the\r\ncyclone during the next 24 to 36 hours, and then calls for Gaston to\r\nintensify and reach hurricane strength over the warm waters of the\r\ncentral Atlantic. The forecast follows closely the SHIPS model and\r\nthe intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nGaston is moving toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 15 kt\r\nsteered by the flow between the subtropical high and the same\r\nlow that is causing the shear. As the low moves southwestward and\r\nthe ridge to the north of the cyclone amplifies, Gaston should turn\r\na little more toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward\r\nspeed. The NHC forecast is the middle of the guidance envelope and\r\nis basically on top of the latest multi-model consensus. No\r\nsignificant changes were made to the previous track forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 18.6N  42.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 20.1N  44.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 22.3N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 24.5N  48.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 26.3N  51.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 28.5N  55.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 30.5N  58.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 32.0N  59.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nFor much of yesterday afternoon and evening, the NASA/NOAA Global\r\nHawk unmanned aircraft flew a mission through Gaston.  On the\r\naircraft's last pass through the storm, it released a dropsonde at\r\n0243 UTC that measured a mean boundary layer wind of 80 kt and an\r\naverage wind of 77 kt in the lowest 150 m of the sounding near the\r\ncenter of the cyclone.  These numbers both support an intensity of\r\n65 kt, and consequently Gaston was upgraded to a hurricane.  The\r\nsonde reported a minimum pressure of 995 mb with a 69-kt surface\r\nwind, which equates to a central pressure of about 988 mb.\r\n\r\nDespite Gaston becoming a hurricane, microwave data indicate that\r\nthe cyclone is tilted due to 20-25 kt of west-southwesterly shear.\r\nThe shear is expected to increase further during the next 12-24\r\nhours when Gaston moves around the eastern side of an upper-level\r\nlow, and as a result, the hurricane is forecast to weaken back to a\r\ntropical storm later today.  The shear is then forecast to subside\r\nin about 48 hours, and with sea surface temperatures expected to\r\nincrease, Gaston is likely to reintensify during the latter part of\r\nthe forecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is higher than the\r\nprevious forecast during the first 48 hours primarily to account for\r\nthe higher initial intensity.  After 48 hours, the official forecast\r\nis unchanged and closely follows the SHIPS model and the ICON\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nGaston continues to move northwestward, or 310 degrees at 15 kt,\r\nalong the southwestern edge of a mid-tropospheric high.  A fairly\r\nquick northwestward motion should continue for the next 36 hours,\r\nwith a turn toward the west-northwest expected by 48 hours when\r\nGaston moves around the north side of the aforementioned mid- to\r\nupper-level low.  Gaston is then expected to recurve toward the\r\nnorth-northeast by day 5 as it moves through a break in the ridge\r\nand toward the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track models are in\r\nagreement on this general scenario, although the ECMWF model is a\r\nlittle bit slower and to the east of the other models, showing a\r\nsharper turn by day 5.  The new NHC track forecast is therefore a\r\nlittle east of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5 and lies\r\nclosest to the HWRF and the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 19.5N  43.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 21.1N  44.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 23.4N  46.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 25.3N  49.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 26.7N  52.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 29.1N  56.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 31.0N  58.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 32.5N  57.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Gaston has degraded some since the\r\nprevious advisory, with deep convection bursting northeast of the\r\ncenter due to about 25 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by\r\nUW-CIMSS.  An ASCAT-B pass from 1212 UTC was helpful in locating the\r\ncenter and showed peak winds of around 55 kt, which support an\r\nintensity of 60 kt for this advisory, a little above the latest\r\nDvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt.  The strong shear is forecast to\r\ncontinue for the next 24 hours until Gaston moves poleward of an\r\nupper-level low currently located to its west.  Given the shear and\r\nSSTs around 27-28C, little change in intensity, or perhaps some\r\nslight weakening, is expected in the first 24 hours.  After that\r\ntime, the shear decreases and Gaston moves over SSTs of 29-30C,\r\nwhich should allow for strengthening through the rest of the\r\nforecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than\r\nthe previous one later in the period and is close to the SHIPS model\r\nand the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/15.  Gaston should continue\r\nmoving quickly northwestward for the next 24 to 36 hours around a\r\nmid-level ridge centered to its northeast.  Ridging then builds\r\nwestward to the north of the tropical cyclone, leading to a decrease\r\nin forward speed and a turn toward the west-northwest in 48 hours.\r\nLate in the period, Gaston will turn poleward into a weakness along\r\n60W and then begin to recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\r\ntrack model guidance agrees on this general scenario, however, there\r\nare some differences in the timing and sharpness of recurvature.\r\nThe GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and UKMET are on the left side of the\r\nguidance envelope with a broader turn, while the ECMWF, HWRF, and\r\nGFDL show a sharper turn on the right side of the guidance.  Given\r\nthe uncertainty, the NHC forecast remains near the previous one in\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope, and is close to the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial and forecast 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii were adjusted\r\nbased on data from the ASCAT pass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 20.4N  44.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 22.1N  45.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 24.4N  48.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 26.0N  50.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 27.1N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 29.4N  56.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 31.0N  58.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 33.0N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nStrong southwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Gaston.  The\r\ncloud pattern has become more assymetric with all of the deep\r\ncore convection located north and east of the center.  This was\r\nconfirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave overpass that showed\r\nsignificant southwest to northeast tilt between the low- and\r\nmid-level centers.  Objective Dvorak T-numbers have decreased and\r\nsubjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support an initial\r\nwind speed of 55 kt.  A large upper-level low near 23N 54W that is\r\nmoving southwestward is expected to continue to produce an\r\nunfavorable upper-level environment over Gaston for another 12 to\r\n18 hours.  Some additional weakening is possible tonight, but the\r\nofficial NHC forecast shows little change in strength through\r\nFriday.  After that time, Gaston should be moving around the\r\nnorthern portion of the upper-low and into a more favarable\r\nupper-level wind pattern.  This combined with warm SSTs and a moist\r\natmosphere should allow Gaston to re-strengthen over the weekend\r\nand once again become a hurricane.  The updated NHC intensity\r\nforecast is slightly above the previous advisory after 36 hours, and\r\nis in good agreement with the latest SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains northwestward at 15 kt.  Gaston should\r\nmove northwestward during the next day or so around a mid-level\r\nridge over the east-central Atlantic.  In 36 to 48 hours, a ridge is\r\nforecast to build to the north of Gaston, which should cause the\r\ncyclone to turn west-northwestward.  Early next week, the ridge\r\nis forecast to weaken and Gaston is expected to turn northward,\r\nthen recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies in 4 to 5 days.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement during the first 48 hours, but\r\nthere is some spread as to what longitude recurvature begins.  The\r\nECMWF shows a slower motion near the end of the forecast period and\r\na track along the eastern side of the guidance envelope, while the\r\nGFS and GFS ensemble mean are along the western edge.  The NHC track\r\nforeast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is in\r\nclosest agreement with UKMET, FSSE, and multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 21.6N  45.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 23.4N  47.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 25.5N  49.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 27.0N  52.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 28.1N  54.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 30.2N  57.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 31.8N  57.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 34.0N  55.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nGaston continues to have an asymmetric satellite appearance due to\r\nstrong southwesterly shear.  Still, the cyclone is producing\r\npersistent deep convection near the center, and Dvorak estimates\r\nsuggest the initial wind speed remains near 55 kt.  The shear\r\nshould decrease tomorrow due to Gaston moving into a favorable\r\nposition to the north of an upper-level low.  In addition, the\r\nwater temperatures are forecast to be warming up during the next\r\nfew days, which should also promote strengthening.  Due to recent\r\nmicrowave data showing that the inner core has been disrupted, only\r\na slow intensification is shown in this forecast.  In the longer\r\nterm, models are not in great agreement on the upper-level wind\r\npattern, and I have elected to level off the intensification.  The\r\nnew NHC prediction is a blend of the previous one and the model\r\nconsensus. It should be noted that, while not explicitly shown\r\nbelow, a majority of the guidance show Gaston becoming a major\r\nhurricane at some time in the day 3 to 5 period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains northwestward at 15 kt.  Gaston should\r\nmove northwestward during the next day or so around a mid-level\r\nridge over the east-central Atlantic.  In about 36 hours, the\r\nridge is forecast to build to the north of Gaston, which will likely\r\ncause the cyclone to turn west-northwestward.  Early next week,\r\nGaston should turn northward as the ridge weakens, then recurve into\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies in 4 days or so.  Model guidance,\r\nhowever, is not in good agreement on the exact details, with timing\r\nand speed differences in both the tropical cyclone's position and\r\nthe potential mid-latitude shortwave that causes recurvature.  Since\r\nthere have been no substantive changes to the model guidance in this\r\ncycle, the new NHC prediction is basically just an update of the\r\nprevious one.  It is fair to say that the end of this forecast is\r\nof pretty low confidence.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 22.8N  46.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 24.5N  48.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 26.2N  50.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 27.5N  53.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 28.6N  54.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 30.5N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 32.5N  57.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 34.5N  53.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nGaston is right in the thick of 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear,\r\nand the low-level center appears to be near or just inside the\r\nsouthern edge of a ragged central dense overcast.  Because Dvorak\r\nCurrent Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 3.5, the\r\ninitial intensity is held at 55 kt.  With Gaston now moving around\r\nthe northeastern side of a mid- to upper-level low, the vertical\r\nshear is expected to quickly decrease to below 10 kt within the next\r\n12-24 hours.  In addition, sea surface temperatures are forecast to\r\nincrease by another degree or two.  Therefore, Gaston is likely to\r\nbegin strengthening later today, and it should reintensify to a\r\nhurricane by tonight or on Saturday.  Strengthening is anticipated\r\nto continue through days 3 and 4, with Gaston nearing or possibly\r\nreaching major hurricane intensity, followed by some weakening on\r\nday 5 due to an increase in westerly shear.  The reliable intensity\r\nmodels are all within 10-15 kt of each other for the entire\r\nforecast period, and the NHC forecast is therefore very close to\r\nthe ICON intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nGaston continues to move northwestward, or 320 degrees at 15 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to maintain a generally northwestward track\r\nbut slow down considerably during the next few days after it moves\r\nnorth of the aforementioned mid- to upper-level low and enters a\r\nbreak in the subtropical ridge.  After 72 hours, Gaston is expected\r\nto reach the mid-latitude westerlies, and a sharp recurvature with\r\nacceleration is forecast at the end of the forecast period.  While\r\nall the track models agree on this scenario, there continue to be\r\ndifferences in the sharpness of Gaston's turn and its forward speed,\r\nespecially after the turn.  Still, the updated NHC track forecast\r\nis not too different from the previous one, and it is closest to a\r\nclustering of models that includes the GFS, the Florida State\r\nSuperensemble, and the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 23.9N  47.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 25.5N  49.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 27.0N  52.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 28.2N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 29.2N  55.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 30.8N  57.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 32.2N  55.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 34.0N  51.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nGaston continues to be adversely impacted by about 20 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly vertical shear because of a strong upper low to the\r\nsouthwest.  The shear is forcing the diminished deep convection to\r\nbe primarily located north of the center.  The TAFB and SAB\r\ncurrent intensities indicated 55 kt at 12Z, which is supported by a\r\n1330Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass which just became available.\r\n\r\nAs Gaston moves away from the upper-level low, the shear should drop\r\nfairly dramatically to between 5 and 10 kt by tomorrow.  The shear\r\nshould stay low through about 72 h while the cyclone traverses over\r\nquite warm waters.  After about three days, Gaston should encounter\r\nstrong mid-latitude upper-level westerlies and a return of hostile\r\nshear at the same time that SSTs steadily drop.  The official NHC\r\nforecast is for steady intensification between days one and three,\r\nwith gradual weakening thereafter.  This forecast is based upon the\r\nIVCN intensity model consensus and is very similar to that from the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nGaston's initial position is very well known, due to the center\r\nbeing along the edge of the deep convection.  The tropical storm is\r\nmoving toward the north-northwest at a rapid 15-kt clip, as it's\r\nbeing steered between the strong upper low and a subtropical ridge\r\nto its northeast.  Around 72 h, Gaston should slow to a crawl as it\r\nreaches a weak steering pattern.  But by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, the system should be accelerating northeastward as it enters\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies.  The track forecast is based upon the\r\ntightly clustered members of the TVCN track model consensus and is\r\njust slightly north of the previous advisory due to Gaston's initial\r\nposition being more north than previously anticipated.\r\n\r\nThe initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii were made slightly larger\r\nbased upon an AMSU satellite pass and the wind radii forecast is\r\nsimilar to the RVCN consensus technique.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 25.2N  48.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 26.7N  50.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 27.9N  52.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 29.0N  54.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 29.9N  55.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 31.2N  56.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 32.5N  54.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 34.5N  50.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe hostile vertical shear from an upper low to Gaston's southwest\r\nappears to be dropping with the SHIPS and CIMSS shear analyses down\r\nto about 15 kt.  The deep convection, however, is still mainly north\r\nof the center and lacks significant banding features.  SAB and TAFB\r\nDvorak current intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt, down\r\nslightly from earlier today.  In deference to the 1330Z ASCAT\r\nscatterometer pass and the very robust low-level circulation evident\r\nin the visible imagery during the day, the maximum winds are kept at\r\n55 kt.\r\n\r\nAs Gaston moves away from the upper-level low, the shear should\r\ncontinue to drop to values between 5 and 10 kt by tomorrow.  The\r\nshear should then stay low through about 72 h while the cyclone\r\ntraverses over quite warm waters.  A key uncertainty in the\r\nintensity forecast is from the environmental low-level moisture,\r\nwhich may decrease substantially during the next few days.  This\r\ncould reduce the otherwise quite conducive conditions that Gaston\r\nshould soon experience. After about three days, Gaston is likely to\r\nencounter strong mid-latitude upper-level westerlies and a return of\r\nhostile shear while SSTs steadily drop. The official NHC forecast is\r\nfor steady intensification between days one and three, with gradual\r\nweakening thereafter.  This forecast is based upon a blend of the\r\ntightly packed HWRF/COAMPS/SHIPS/LGEM models and is the same as in\r\nthe previous advisory.\r\n\r\nGaston's center is just tucked in on the southern edge of the deep\r\nconvection, allowing for a confident assessment of the initial\r\nposition. The tropical storm is moving toward the northwest at a\r\n15-kt clip, as it is being steered between the strong upper low and\r\na subtropical ridge to its northeast.  Around 72 h, Gaston should\r\nslow to a crawl as it reaches a weak steering pattern.  But by the\r\nend of the forecast period, the system should be accelerating\r\nnortheastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track\r\nforecast is based upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF global models\r\nand is nearly the same from that in the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii were only slightly tweaked\r\nbased upon the ASCAT scatterometer pass and the wind radii forecast\r\nis similar to the RVCN consensus technique.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 26.2N  49.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 27.4N  51.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 28.6N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 29.7N  54.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 30.4N  55.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 31.5N  56.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 32.5N  53.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z 34.5N  49.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe structure of Gaston appears to be slowly improving, with less\r\nevidence of vertical shear than earlier today.  Deep convection has\r\nbeen forming fairly close to the center in a more symmetric fashion,\r\nbut still hasn't been able to persist for very long.  Subjective\r\nestimates are a little higher than earlier, but still support an\r\ninitial wind speed of 55 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nGaston should move into a low-shear, warm-water environment during\r\nthe next 2 or 3 days, which would usually support a great deal of\r\nstrengthening.  However, a key hindering factor remains the nearby\r\nlow-level moisture, which is forecast to substantially decrease\r\nduring the next few days.  This should temper the expected\r\nintensification and reduce the chances for rapid strengthening.\r\nGaston is likely to encounter increasing upper-level flow beyond 3\r\ndays, which probably will start a weakening trend in combination\r\nwith gradually cooling SSTs.  Model guidance is generally in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, with less spread in the intensity\r\nmodels than is typically seen.  The new prediction is a blend of\r\nthe previous forecast and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data suggest that Gaston continues to move northwestward,\r\nnow at about 13 kt, a bit slower than before.  The cyclone is\r\nmoving between a strong upper low to the southwest and a subtropical\r\nridge to its northeast.  The ridge is forecast to gradually weaken,\r\nresulting in Gaston decelerating over the next couple of days.\r\nSteering currents get quite light in about 3 days, and the cyclone\r\nis expected to turn northeastward or east-northeastward it moves\r\naround the northwest side of a distant ridge over the eastern\r\nAtlantic.   Computer models are coming into better agreement on a\r\nsharper, slower recurvature, first suggested by the ECMWF yesterday.\r\nThe latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one for the first\r\nfew days, then is trended eastward to follow the model trend.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 27.0N  50.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 28.0N  52.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 29.2N  54.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 30.2N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 30.8N  55.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 31.8N  55.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 33.0N  52.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 35.0N  47.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nRecent microwave data indicate that Gaston's center is now well\r\nembedded near the middle of the central dense overcast.  The\r\nmicrowave images also show that a partial mid-level ring has formed,\r\nbut it remains open to the north-northeast.  Even though Gaston's\r\nstructure appears to be improving, the maximum winds remain 55 kt\r\nbased on Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nTwo outflow jets are emanating away to the east and southwest of\r\nGaston, but the outflow remains restricted to the south and\r\nnorthwest.  Still, the shear has decreased substantially from what\r\nit was a day or two ago, and it should remain generally low for the\r\nnext 48 hours.  In addition, sea surface temperatures ahead of\r\nGaston are expected to be at least 28C for several more days.\r\nTherefore, strengthening is anticipated through day 3, followed by\r\ngradual weakening on days 4 and 5 due to increasing westerly shear.\r\nAlthough the intensity models all agree on this general scenario,\r\nthere is a little more spread in the peak intensities than has been\r\nnoted in previous advisories.  On the high end, the Florida State\r\nSuperensemble still shows Gaston approaching major hurricane\r\nintensity, while the LGEM model is at the other extreme being about\r\n20 kt lower.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the middle\r\nof the guidance and ends up just a little lower than the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nGaston is moving northwestward, or 310 degrees at 13 kt, between a\r\nmid-tropospheric high to its northeast and a mid-/upper-level low\r\nto its southwest.  The cyclone is expected to maintain a\r\nnorthwestward heading but steadily decelerate during the next 48\r\nhours.  After that time, Gaston should recurve sharply\r\neast-northeastward and accelerate through the end of the forecast\r\nperiod as it gets picked up by the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\r\ntrack guidance has trended westward through 48 hours, delaying\r\nGaston's recurvature just a bit, and it is then a little faster by\r\ndays 4 and 5.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly\r\nand is close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 27.9N  52.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 28.8N  53.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 29.9N  55.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 30.6N  56.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 31.2N  56.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 32.5N  55.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 34.5N  50.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 37.0N  43.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nA 0954Z WindSAT microwave image indicated that Gaston had developed\r\na 15-nmi-diameter low-level eye that was embedded in the center of\r\nthe nearly circular central dense overcast. Subjective satellite\r\nintensity estimates are T4.0/65 kt and T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and\r\nSAB, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is T3.7/59 kt.\r\nAn average of these estimates supports increasing the initial\r\nintensity to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nAs anticipated, Gaston has slowed down and the motion estimate is\r\nnow 310/09 kt. The cyclone is forecast to maintain a northwestward\r\nmotion and continue to decelerate during the next 48 hours as Gaston\r\nmoves into a break in the subtropical ridge located to its north. A\r\nmid-level shortwave trough is forecast to dig southeastward from\r\nCanada and the northeastern United States by 72 hours, and force\r\nGaston to make a sharp turn toward the north and northeast when the\r\ncyclone is located several hundred miles east of Bermuda. On days 4\r\nand 5, Gaston is expected to get caught up in the deep-layer mid-\r\nlatitude westerlies and accelerate east-northeastward over the North\r\nAtlantic. The new official forecast track is a little slower than\r\nthe previous advisory track and has been shifted a little to the\r\neast, but not nearly as far east as the consensus model TVCN out of\r\nrespect for the ECWMF model, which is close to the previous\r\nforecast track.\r\n\r\nGaston has maintained two pronounced upper-level outflow jets to its\r\neast and southwest. These jets are flowing into large upper-level\r\nlows that are acting as significant mass sinks, a pattern that\r\nfavors intensification.  Although the mid-level environment is\r\nexpected to be characterized by low humidity values of 40-45 percent\r\nduring the next 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of\r\n29C and remain in a low vertical wind shear regime. Those latter\r\nconditions, along with the small eye feature and the outflow jet\r\npattern should allow Gaston to overcome the dry conditions and\r\nresult in strengthening at a typical rate of about 20 kt per day. By\r\ndays 4 and 5, the vertical shear is forecast to increase sharply and\r\nbecome westerly at more than 30 kt, which should induce a weakening\r\ntrend. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory, and lies close to the consensus model IVCN through 36\r\nhours, and a little above IVCN and close to the SHIPS/LGEM models\r\nafter that.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 28.4N  53.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 29.3N  54.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 30.1N  55.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 30.7N  56.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 31.3N  56.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 32.6N  54.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 34.2N  49.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 36.9N  43.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nThe inner-core convection of Gaston has continued to increase with\r\nthe CDO having expanded and become more symmetrical. Subjective\r\nsatellite intensity estimates remain T4.0/65 kt and T3.5/55 kt from\r\nTAFB and SAB, respectively, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value is\r\nT3.9/63 kt. An average of these estimates supports maintaining the\r\ninitial intensity at 60 kt, which could be conservative.\r\n\r\nGaston's initial motion estimate is 320/08 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track reasoning. Gaston\r\nis expected to continue moving northwestward and gradually\r\ndecelerate during the next two days as the cyclone moves into a\r\nbreak in the Bermuda-Azores ridge. A shortwave trough and associated\r\nfrontal system is forecast to approach Gaston by 72 hours and slowly\r\nlift out the tropical cyclone to the north and northeast. On days 4\r\nand 5, Gaston is expected to get caught up in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterly flow ahead of the aforementioned frontal system and\r\naccelerate east-northeastward. The new NHC track model guidance is\r\nin much better agreement now that the ECMWF model has made a\r\nsignificant eastward shift in its track forecast and is much closer\r\nto the previous advisory track. The new official forecast track was\r\nonly shifted eastward slightly to come more in line with the\r\nconsensus models TVCN and GFEX. However, the track shift also\r\nresulted in a significant decrease in the forward speed on days 3,\r\n4, and 5.\r\n\r\nThe global and regional models continue to indicate that Gaston\r\nwill remain in a very favorable upper-level outflow pattern for at\r\nleast the next 72 hours. In fact, the Navy-COAMPS, GFS, and ECMWF\r\nmodels forecast Gaston to become a major hurricane by 72-120 h, with\r\nthe ECMWF forecasting a central pressure of 945 mb on day 5. In\r\ncontrast, the HWRF and the statistical-dynamical models SHIPS/LGEM\r\nonly bring Gaston up to 85-90 kt. Due to the possibility of\r\noccasional dry air intrusions, with mid-level humidity values in the\r\n40-percent range, weakening the inner-core convection, the official\r\nintensity forecast remains unchanged and on the conservative side\r\nthrough 72 hours, which is slightly above the consensus model IVCN.\r\nOn days 4 and 5, strong westerly shear of about 30 kt should induce\r\nweakening, which also argues against this system becoming a major\r\nhurricane at that time like the ECMWF model is predicting, and the\r\nforecast is a little lower than the consensus on those days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 29.2N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 30.0N  54.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 30.7N  55.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 31.0N  55.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 31.4N  54.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 32.5N  53.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 34.0N  50.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 37.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nGaston has become a hurricane again with a well-defined eye on\r\nmicrowave images that has been occasionally showing up on\r\nconventional satellite pictures.  Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt\r\nfrom both TAFB and SAB, so the initial wind speed is increased to 75\r\nkt. The environment near Gaston, other than some dry mid-level air,\r\nlooks conducive for strengthening for the next day or so.  While\r\nthe environment doesn't change much in the next couple of days\r\noverall, Gaston is expected to move very slowly, which could upwell\r\nsome cooler water.  Thus the wind speed forecast will be leveled\r\noff after 24 hours.  A more consistent weakening trend is expected\r\nbeyond 72 hours when the cyclone moves over colder waters and\r\nexperiences stronger shear.  The latest NHC prediction is higher\r\nthan the previous one, mostly owing to the initial conditions, and\r\nis close to a blend of the FSU Superensemble and the intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes show that Gaston is moving slower to the northwest,\r\nat about 7 kt.  The storm should continue to decelerate over the\r\nnext day or so as it reaches a break in the subtropical ridge, and\r\nhave a slow motion to the north or northeast from 24 to 48 hours.\r\nThe next shortwave trough in the mid-latitude is forecast to reach\r\nGaston in about 3 days, which will likely cause the hurricane to\r\nrecurve to the east-northeast, albeit at a slower rate of speed than\r\nyou normally see over the North Atlantic.  Guidance has not changed\r\nmuch since the last cycle, and the official forecast is basically an\r\nupdate of the previous one, a bit slower than the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 29.6N  54.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 30.1N  54.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 30.7N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 31.0N  55.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 31.4N  54.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 32.6N  52.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 34.6N  48.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 37.5N  42.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nFor much of the night, there was little overall change in the\r\norganization of Gaston.  A ragged eye had occasionally been seen\r\nin infrared satellite imagery, and an 0529 UTC AMSR microwave\r\noverpass detected an eye that was open over the southwestern\r\nquadrant. However, within the past hour or so, the eye has become a\r\nlittle more apparent, with some cooling to the surrounding cloud\r\ntops. As a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 80\r\nkt, which is slightly above the latest subjective Dvorak estimates\r\nbecause of the recent increase in organization.\r\n\r\nGaston is forecast to remain in a low-shear environment and\r\nover warm water during the next 24 hours, which should allow for\r\nadditional intensification.  After that time, the NHC forecast shows\r\na leveling-off of Gaston's intensity due to the possibility of\r\nupwelling of cooler water resulting from the expected slow motion\r\nof the hurricane. Later in the period, increasing in southwesterly\r\nshear is likely to cause some weakening, but Gaston is predicted to\r\nremain a hurricane during the entire 5-day forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe forward motion of the hurricane appears to be slowing down\r\nas anticipated, with recent satellite fixes indicating an initial\r\nmotion of 325/5 kt.  Gaston should continue to decelerate during\r\nthe next day or so as it remains within an area of weak steering\r\nflow.  In a 2 to 3 days, a mid-latitude trough is forecast to dig\r\nsouthward off the northeastern United States coast, which should\r\nbegin to steer Gaston northeastward, but a a slower speed than that\r\nof typical recurving hurricanes over the North Atlantic.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track is\r\nnear the consensus of the dynamical models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 30.1N  54.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 30.6N  55.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 31.0N  55.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 31.3N  55.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 31.9N  54.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 33.3N  51.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 35.8N  46.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 38.5N  39.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye was fairly distinct a few hours ago, but recently it has\r\nbecome slightly cloud-filled and the inner-core convection has\r\nbecome less symmetrical.  The current intensity is set at 90 kt,\r\nin agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective ADT\r\nvalues from UW-CIMSS.  Assuming the slight degradation of the inner\r\ncore structure to be temporary, a little more strengthening is\r\nexpected within the next 12 to 24 hours.  Gaston should remain in a\r\nlow to moderate vertical wind shear environment for the next\r\ncouple of days, which would allow the hurricane to more or less\r\nmaintain its intensity through 36-48 hours.  By 72 hours and beyond,\r\nincreasing westerly shear should induce weakening.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nSteering currents are weak, and the initial motion is a\r\nnorthwestward drift or 320/4 kt.  Gaston's motion is being\r\npartially blocked by a narrow subtropical ridge, and this scenario\r\nshould continue for the next day or so.  The hurricane is expected\r\nto gradually work its way through the ridge and, in 24 to 48 hours,\r\nbegin to move northeastward and east-northeastward as it enters the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The official forecast is close to a\r\nconsensus of the ECMWF and GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 30.5N  54.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 30.8N  55.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 31.2N  55.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 31.6N  55.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 32.4N  53.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 34.3N  49.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 36.5N  44.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 38.5N  36.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe 15 n mi diameter eye has become more distinct on visible\r\nsatellite images today, and enhanced IR images show a cooling of the\r\ncloud tops surrounding the eye.  These features indicate\r\nstrengthening, and the current intensity is increased to 100 kt in\r\nagreement with the subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, as\r\nwell as objective ADT numbers from UW-CIMSS.  Upper-level outflow is\r\nwell-established both to the west and the east of the hurricane.\r\nBased on a consensus of the intensity models, not much additional\r\nstrengthening is anticipated.  When Gaston moves to a little higher\r\nlatitude, westerly shear on the system should increase, and steady\r\nweakening is expected to commence in about 48 hours.\r\n\r\nGaston continues to crawl northwestward while being partially\r\nblocked by a narrow mid-level subtropical ridge.  The hurricane is\r\nforecast to work its way through the ridge over the next day or so.\r\nBy Tuesday, an east-northeastward motion with gradual acceleration\r\nis likely as the system begins to feel the effect of the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  The official forecast track is shifted a\r\nlittle southward late in the forecast period, in line with the\r\nlatest global model guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 30.8N  55.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 31.0N  55.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 31.4N  55.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 32.0N  54.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 32.8N  52.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 34.9N  47.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 37.5N  40.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 37.5N  33.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nGaston remains a well organized hurricane. Satellite images indicate\r\nthat the eye remains quite distinct with a symmetric ring of deep\r\nconvection around it.  The upper-level outflow is well established\r\nboth to the west and the east of the system.  The latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB are 5.5/102 kt, and automated\r\nvalues from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are 5.9/112 kt.\r\nBased on these data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 105\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nGaston has not moved very little during the last several hours. A\r\ncontinued slow and likely erratic northward motion is forecast\r\novernight and Monday while Gaston remains in weak steering currents\r\ncaused by a blocking mid-level ridge to its northwest.  A trough\r\nthat is currently over eastern Canada is expected to dampen by the\r\ntime it nears Gaston, but it should be strong enough to erode the\r\nridge and allow the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies. This pattern change should result in Gaston's turning\r\neast-northeastward in about 24 hours, with the cyclone continuing in\r\nthat direction through the remainder of the forecast period.  The\r\nmodel guidance remains tightly packed, and little change was made to\r\nthe previous NHC track prediction.\r\n\r\nThe atmospheric conditions suggest that Gaston could maintain its\r\nstrength for the next day or so, however, given the expected slow\r\nmotion of the cyclone there is some chance that cold water upwelling\r\nwould counteract that.  Beyond that time, the hurricane is\r\nlikely to encounter an environment of increasing shear, drier air,\r\nand cooler water. Given these expected conditions, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast shows a gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday.  This\r\nprediction is in best agreement with the SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 30.6N  55.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 30.9N  55.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 31.4N  54.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 32.1N  53.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 33.0N  51.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 37.4N  38.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 37.7N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nGaston remains a well-organized hurricane.  However, the satellite\r\nappearance is slightly less impressive than 6 hours ago, with the\r\neye becoming less distinct and the deep convection eroding in the\r\nnorthwestern quadrant.  While the various satellite intensity\r\nestimates have changed little since the last advisory, the initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 100 kt based on the degraded appearance.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is currently drifting northward.  A slow motion is\r\nlikely to continue for the next 12 hours or so as Gaston is caught\r\nbetween two segments of the subtropical ridge.  After that time, a\r\nmid-latitude trough moving southeastward from eastern Canada is\r\nexpected to weaken the ridge northwest of Gaston, allowing the\r\ncyclone to move generally east-northeastward along the southern edge\r\nof the westerlies.  The model guidance remains tightly packed\r\nthrough 72 hours, and little change was made to the previous\r\nforecast for that time.  After 72 hours, the guidance envelope has\r\nshifted a little to the north, and the forecast track was likewise\r\nnudged to stay near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nGaston is expected to remain is a light shear/warm water\r\nenvironment for the first 24 hours.  During this time, the\r\nintensity forecast calls for slight weakening due to dry air\r\nentrainment and the possibility that the slow-moving hurricane will\r\nupwell cold water.  After 24 hours, Gaston is likely to move over\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasing shear,\r\nwhich should cause a gradual weakening.  The new forecast intensity\r\nis an update of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 30.8N  55.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 31.1N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 31.8N  54.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 32.5N  52.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 33.5N  50.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 36.5N  44.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 38.0N  36.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 38.5N  30.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nOver the past few hours, the satellite presentation of Gaston has\r\nbecome slightly less organized, with decreasing convection noted in\r\nthe eyewall.  Satellite estimates are a bit lower, so the initial\r\nwind speed is reduced to 95 kt.  Little change in intensity is\r\nexpected for the next couple of days while Gaston remains over warm\r\nwaters with light-to-moderate shear.  Thereafter, a gradual\r\nincrease in shear, along with a decrease in SSTs, should cause a\r\nmore significant weakening.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is\r\nsimply an update of the previous one since the guidance continues\r\nto be in fairly good agreement.\r\n\r\nGaston is still drifting northward. The steering currents should\r\nbecome better defined tomorrow as a ridge becomes established to\r\nthe south of the cyclone.  The ridge should cause Gaston to\r\naccelerate to the east-northeast over the next few days, although\r\nthe cyclone stays south of the main belt of mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies.  Guidance is coming into better agreement on the system\r\napproaching the Azores in about 5 days, although there are some\r\nspeed differences.  No significant changes were made to the\r\nprevious forecast, which lies near or just south of the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 31.0N  55.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 31.3N  55.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 31.9N  53.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 32.6N  51.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 33.7N  49.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 36.7N  42.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 38.0N  35.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 39.0N  30.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nGaston's satellite presentation continues to slowly degrade, with\r\nthe latest microwave data suggesting it could be undergoing an\r\neyewall replacement.  The initial wind speed is lowered to 90 kt in\r\naccordance with the latest satellite estimates.  Little change in\r\nintensity is expected for the next couple of days while Gaston\r\nremains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear, although the\r\neyewall cycle adds a wrinkle to the forecast.  In a couple of days,\r\na gradual increase in shear, along with a decrease in SSTs, should\r\ncause a more significant weakening. Intensity guidance is a bit\r\nlower than 6 hours ago, and the latest NHC intensity forecast\r\nfollows that trend.\r\n\r\nGaston appears to be moving a bit faster, now north-northeastward at\r\n3 kt. Due to a ridge becoming established to the southeast of the\r\ncyclone, Gaston should accelerate to the east-northeast over the\r\nnext few days.  The end of the forecast is tricky, with some\r\nuncertainties over how Gaston interacts with the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies and the strength of an eastern Atlantic ridge.  While\r\nthe overall guidance suite has shifted somewhat to the north at days\r\n4 and 5, the ECMWF has been more consistent during the past few\r\ndays and has stayed farther south.  Thus, the new forecast is on\r\nthe southern side of the guidance envelope, to the south of the\r\nmodel consensus at long range.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 31.2N  55.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 31.6N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 32.2N  52.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 33.2N  50.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 34.6N  48.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 37.7N  39.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 38.5N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 40.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Gaston has not changed much during\r\nthe last several hours.  The eye is ragged-looking in infrared\r\nsatellite images and recent microwave data indicate that there are\r\nsome signs of a double eyewall structure.  The initial intensity is\r\nheld at 90 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the Dvorak\r\nCI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Gaston will likely change little in\r\nstrength during the next couple of days while it remains in\r\ngenerally conducive environmental conditions.  However, fluctuations\r\nin strength are possible if the cyclone continues to undergo an\r\neyewall replacement. Beyond a couple of days, steady weakening is\r\nanticipated when the hurricane moves over cooler waters and into an\r\nenvironment of increasing shear and drier air. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is largely unchanged from the previous one.\r\n\r\nGaston has turned northeastward and is moving a bit faster, with the\r\ninitial motion estimated to be 045/5 kt.  A trough currently\r\nseen in water vapor images near Atlantic Canada is expected to\r\napproach Gaston during the next 12 to 24 hours, and that should\r\ncause the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies. This should result in Gaston turning east-northeastward\r\non Tuesday with a steady increase in forward speed during the next\r\nfew days.  The model guidance has shifted a little to the north this\r\ncycle, and the NHC track forecast has been nudged in that direction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 31.6N  54.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 32.1N  53.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 32.8N  51.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 34.0N  49.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 35.7N  45.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 39.0N  36.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 40.0N  29.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 41.0N  24.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nGaston is completing an eyewall replacement cycle and currently\r\nfeatures a well-defined 35 n mi wide eye.  The convective clouds\r\nhave eroded somewhat west of the eye since the last advisory, and\r\nthe various subjective and objective intensity estimates have also\r\ndecreased.  The initial intensity is thus lowered to 85 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 055/5.  A mid- to upper-level trough\r\ncurrently seen in water vapor images near Atlantic Canada is\r\nexpected to approach Gaston during the next 12 to 24 hours, and that\r\nshould cause the hurricane to become embedded in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies.  As a result, Gaston should accelerate generally\r\neast-northeastward through 72 hours.  At 96 hours, a building ridge\r\nsouthwest of Gaston may cause a more easterly motion as the cyclone\r\napproaches the Azores Islands.  This should be followed by a\r\nnortheastward turn by 120 hours as a second mid-latitude trough\r\napproaches the tropical cyclone.  The track guidance generally\r\nagrees with this scenario, although the model spread increases\r\nafter 72 hours.  The new forecast track is changed little from the\r\nprevious track and lies near the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe intensity guidance suggests that little change in strength is\r\nlikely for the next 36-48 hours as Gaston moves over relatively\r\nwarm water in a light or moderate westerly shear environment.\r\nAfter that time, increasing shear and decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures should cause a steady decay.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous forecast in best agreement\r\nwith the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 32.0N  54.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 32.4N  52.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 33.4N  50.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 35.0N  47.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 36.8N  43.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 39.5N  34.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 39.5N  28.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 42.5N  23.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite images indicate that Gaston has completed an\r\neyewall replacement cycle.  The eye is better defined than it was\r\novernight and it has contracted some.  In addition, the convective\r\npattern has gained symmetry, and dry slots that were apparent\r\novernight are no longer evident.  The initial intensity is\r\nincreased a little to 90 kt, in agreement with a Dvorak\r\nclassification of 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and slightly higher numbers\r\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.\r\n\r\nFluctuations in strength are likely during the next day or so\r\nwhile Gaston remains in generally conducive environmental\r\nconditions. After that time, the hurricane is expected to move\r\nover progressively cooler waters and into an atmosphere of\r\nincreasing shear and dry air.  These conditions should cause a\r\nsteady weakening trend likely beginning on Wednesday night or\r\nThursday.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the\r\nprevious one in the short term, but is largely unchanged otherwise.\r\nThis forecast is in good agreement with the intensity model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 060/7 kt.  A mid- to upper-level trough to\r\nthe northwest of Gaston should cause the hurricane to become more\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  As a result, Gaston will\r\nlikely accelerate east-northeastward during the next few days.\r\nBy the end of the forecast period, a large extratropical low\r\npressure area will approach Gaston and it should cause the hurricane\r\nto turn to the northeast and slow down.  The NHC track forecast is\r\na bit slower than the previous one at the longer range points, and\r\nbrings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 32.2N  52.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 32.8N  51.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 34.1N  49.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 35.9N  45.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 37.6N  41.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 39.0N  32.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 39.5N  28.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 42.0N  24.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nGaston appears to have strengthened some more.  The hurricane has\r\nbeen maintaining a large and well-defined eye with mesovorticies\r\nwithin it.  In addition, a ring of deep convection surrounds the eye\r\nwith little evidence of dry slots.  The Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nhave increased from both TAFB and SAB, and they support raising the\r\ninitial wind speed a little more to 95 kt. Gaston is likely to\r\nmaintain this intensity, or perhaps strengthen a little more, in the\r\nshort term while it remains in generally favorable environmental\r\nconditions.  The global models indicate that westerly shear should\r\nincrease over Gaston on Wednesday, and that should promote a gradual\r\nweakening trend.  More pronounced weakening is expected when Gaston\r\nmoves over cool waters in a couple of days. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is slightly higher than the previous one at 12 h, based on\r\nthe higher initial wind speed, but is otherwise largely unchanged.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 065/9 kt.  A faster east-northeastward\r\nmotion is expected during the next couple of days as the cyclone\r\nbecomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  A slower\r\nforward speed is forecast beyond a few days when a large\r\nextratropical low nears Gaston and eventually absorbs it in about\r\n5 days. The NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous\r\none, and brings a weaker Gaston near the Azores Islands in about\r\n3 days. Interests in that area should monitor the progress of this\r\nsystem.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii were modified based on ASCAT and AMSU data from\r\nearlier today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 32.6N  51.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 33.4N  50.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 34.9N  47.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 36.6N  43.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 37.9N  39.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 38.8N  31.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 40.0N  26.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nGaston's satellite presentation has continued to improve, with a\r\nlarge clear eye and cloud tops colder than -60C completely\r\nsurrounding the center.  Dvorak intensity estimates have risen to\r\nT5.5 from TAFB and SAB and are a little higher from the objective\r\nADT.  The initial intensity is therefore raised to 105 kt, making\r\nGaston a major hurricane again.\r\n\r\nGaston is expected to remain over waters warmer than 26C for at\r\nleast the next 36 hours.  In addition, vertical shear is not\r\nexpected to increase any further than what is already affecting the\r\nsystem.  Therefore, Gaston should be able to at least maintain its\r\nintensity in the short term, but weakening is likely to commence by\r\n24 hours.  Due to cooler waters, a rather fast weakening trend\r\nis expected after 36 hours, with Gaston likely to weaken to a\r\ntropical storm between 48 and 72 hours.  The cyclone is now\r\nexpected to become post-tropical by day 4 since it will be\r\ndifficult for it to maintain organized, deep convection over cold\r\nwater, and it should become absorbed by another extratropical\r\ncyclone by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the\r\nICON intensity consensus for the entire forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 070/9 kt.  Gaston is becoming embedded in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies, which should cause it to accelerate\r\ntoward the east-northeast during the next couple of days.  Some\r\nreduction in speed is then forecast to start by day 3 once Gaston\r\nbegins to interact with the separate extratropical cyclone.  The\r\ntrack guidance is tightly clustered, and no significant changes\r\nwere needed from the previous NHC track forecast.  The updated NHC\r\nforecast continues to show a threat to the Azores in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 32.9N  50.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 33.7N  49.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 35.4N  46.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 36.9N  41.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 37.9N  36.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 38.7N  29.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 40.5N  23.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":35,"Date":"2016-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nGaston's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. It\r\nconsists of a large and clear eye surrounded by rings of very deep\r\nconvection. Dvorak intensity estimates have remained steady and\r\nstill support and initial intensity of 105 kt.\r\n\r\nGaston is over warm waters and the shear is expected to increase\r\njust a little during the next day or two. Consequently, only a\r\nslight weakening is anticipated during the the day or so. After\r\nthat time, Gaston should encounter cooler waters resulting in a\r\nfaster weakening. By the end of the forecast period, Gaston should\r\nbecome absorbed by another extratropical cyclone.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 050/8 kt.  Gaston is already embedded in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies, and this pattern should steer the hurricane\r\ntoward the northeast and east-northeast with a gradual increase in\r\nforward speed. By day 3, the cyclone should reduce its forward\r\nspeed once it begins to interact with a separate extratropical\r\ncyclone. No significant adjustments were made to the previous NHC\r\ntrack forecast and it continues to be close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCN. Gaston continues to move in the direction of the\r\nAzores, and all interests in these islands should monitor the\r\nprogress of this cyclone.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 33.4N  50.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 34.5N  48.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 36.3N  44.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 37.5N  40.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 38.5N  35.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 39.5N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 41.5N  22.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  05/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":36,"Date":"2016-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite appearance of Gaston has degraded somewhat during the\r\npast few hours, with a slightly cooler eye noted.  A blend of the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates suggest an initial wind speed of 100 kt for\r\nthis advisory.  Only a slow weakening is anticipated over the next\r\ncouple of days while the hurricane moves over gradually cooling\r\nwaters in moderate shear conditions.  Almost all of the guidance\r\nshow Gaston near hurricane strength in a couple of days as it\r\napproaches the Azores.  The latest NHC intensity forecast is lower\r\nthan the previous one, and best fits the model consensus.\r\n\r\nGaston has begun to move faster toward the east-northeast, now at\r\nabout 13 kt.  The hurricane should accelerate in that general\r\ndirection over the next couple of days as it moves within the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  Most of the models have this system in\r\nthe vicinity of the Azores in about 2 days, and the official\r\nforecast will continue to show this solution.\r\n\r\nA hurricane or tropical storm watch will likely be issued for the\r\ncentral or western Azores this afternoon.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 34.0N  48.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 35.2N  46.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 36.9N  41.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 38.0N  36.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 38.8N  32.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 40.0N  24.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 43.0N  18.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":37,"Date":"2016-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Gaston has gradually decayed today,\r\nwith the eye becoming more ragged in infrared imagery.  The initial\r\nintensity estimate is 90 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nFinal-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Steady weakening is\r\nexpected during the next few days while SSTs decrease steadily along\r\nthe forecast track and the shear increases above 20 kt by 48 hours.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward and is\r\nclose to the latest intensity model consensus, and now shows Gaston\r\nweakening to a tropical storm as it approaches the Azores on Friday.\r\nGaston should lose tropical characteristics by 72 hours and\r\ndissipate by 96 hours as shown by the global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 055/16, and Gaston is expected to\r\nmove east-northeastward to eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies\r\nthrough dissipation.  The NHC track forecast is a little north of\r\nthe previous one and is along the middle of the guidance envelope\r\nbut faster than the TVCN consensus, trending toward the faster FSU\r\nSuperensemble.\r\n\r\nBased on the new forecast, a tropical storm watch has been issued\r\nfor portions of the western and central Azores.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 35.0N  46.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 36.3N  44.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 37.7N  39.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 38.5N  34.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 39.0N  30.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 41.0N  25.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":38,"Date":"2016-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nGaston's infrared satellite pattern has changed little since the\r\nprevious advisory.  The eye remains ragged but clear, and cold\r\nconvective tops continue in all quadrants.  Recent microwave\r\nimagery, however, does show that the southwestern eyewall is now\r\nopen, and there are some indications that the circulation is\r\nbecoming tilted due to west-southwesterly shear.  Still, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 90 kt based on a blend of final-T and CI\r\nnumbers from TAFB and SAB, which is also supported by the latest CI\r\nestimate from the objective ADT.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is expected to be over sea surface temperatures\r\nwarmer than 26C for another 12-18 hours while vertical shear is\r\nforecast to be at or above 20 kt for the next few days.  Therefore,\r\na gradual weakening trend is anticipated, and Gaston is forecast to\r\nlose hurricane intensity in about 36 hours while it approaches the\r\nwestern Azores.  After that time, continued weakening is expected,\r\nand Gaston is likely to become a remnant low in about 72 hours\r\nafter it has passed the Azores and loses its deep convection over\r\nvery cold water.  Dissipation is still expected by day 4.  The\r\nintensity models are in very good agreement on the weakening trend,\r\nand the updated NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains northeastward but a little faster at\r\n055/17 kt.  Gaston is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies, and\r\nit is expected to turn east-northeastward and accelerate during the\r\nnext 24 hours.  After that time, Gaston could slow down a bit while\r\nit moves across the Azores, and then turn back toward the northeast\r\nwhen it becomes a remnant low.  Like the intensity guidance, the\r\ntrack models are in very good agreement, and no significant changes\r\nwere needed from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 36.0N  45.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 37.2N  42.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 38.2N  37.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 38.7N  33.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 39.2N  30.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 42.1N  24.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":39,"Date":"2016-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nGaston has weakened a little overnight.  The cloud pattern has lost\r\nsome organization with the convection more asymmetric and not quite\r\nas deep as it was several hours ago. The Dvorak CI-numbers have\r\ndecreased to 4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, and the initial wind\r\nspeed is lowered to 80 kt based on that data. Gaston is expected to\r\ncross the 26 deg C isotherm later today while it remains in an\r\nenvironment of moderate southwesterly shear.  These conditions\r\nshould cause steady weakening, and Gaston will likely fall below\r\nhurricane strength by tonight. Continued weakening is forecast\r\nwhen the cyclone moves near the Azores on Friday.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is in best agreement with the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward about 17 kt. This\r\ngeneral motion is expected to continue during the next day while\r\nGaston remains embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  A decrease\r\nin forward speed is predicted after that time due to the approach of\r\na large extratropical low.  Gaston will likely be absorbed by the\r\nextratropical low in about 3 days. The NHC track forecast lies near\r\nthe middle of the tightly-packed models.\r\n\r\nBased on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has\r\nissued a Tropical Storm Warning for the western-most islands of\r\nFlores and Corvo.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 36.8N  43.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 37.9N  39.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 38.7N  35.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 39.2N  31.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 40.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":40,"Date":"2016-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nDespite a degraded satellite presentation, a 1302 UTC ASCAT-B pass\r\nover Gaston showed a large area of hurricane force winds southeast\r\nof the center and peak winds of 75 kt, and that will serve as the\r\ninitial intensity for this advisory.  Weakening is forecast as\r\nGaston moves across the 26C SST isotherm later today and the\r\nvertical shear is expected to increase to 20-30 kt by 48 hours.\r\nGaston should fall below hurricane strength tonight and gradually\r\nlose tropical characteristics by 48 hours.  The low is forecast to\r\ndissipate by 72 hours, as shown in the global models.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the new IVCN intensity consensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving quickly east-northeastward, 070/21.  Gaston\r\nwill continue moving generally east-northeastward within the mid-\r\nlatitude westerlies through dissipation.  The new NHC forecast is\r\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope and the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nBased on the current forecast, the Azores Meteorological Service has\r\nissued a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Faial, Pico,\r\nGraciosa, Sao Jorge, and Terceira in the central Azores.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 37.6N  40.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 38.4N  37.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 39.1N  32.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 39.7N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 41.0N  26.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":41,"Date":"2016-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Gaston is no longer visible in geostationary imagery,\r\nwhich shows the coldest convective tops are located west and north\r\nof the center.  Dvorak classifications have decreased to T3.5/4.5\r\nfrom TAFB and T3.0/4.0 from SAB.  Based on the winds seen in the\r\nearlier ASCAT data, the initial intensity is lowered conservatively\r\nto 70 kt for this advisory.  Steady weakening is forecast as Gaston\r\nis moving over waters below 26C and in an environment of 20-30 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly shear.  The NHC forecast is a little lower than the\r\nprevious one following the trend of all the guidance.  Gaston should\r\nbecome post-tropical in about 48 hours and dissipate shortly\r\nthereafter.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has accelerated east-northeastward this afternoon,\r\nwith an initial motion estimate of 075/25.  The track model guidance\r\nis in good agreement showing Gaston continuing east-northeastward\r\nwith a decrease in forward speed as the system weakens and decouples\r\nfrom the mid-level flow.  The new NHC track forecast is basically an\r\nupdate of the previous one and is very close to the latest multi-\r\nmodel consensus aid TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 38.3N  37.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 38.9N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 39.5N  30.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 40.3N  27.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 41.6N  25.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Gaston","Adv":42,"Date":"2016-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Gaston is becoming exposed in infrared\r\nsatellite imagery, with about 25 kt of westerly shear pushing the\r\ndeep convection out ahead of the cyclone.  Dvorak CI numbers remain\r\n4.5/77 kt from TAFB and 4.0/65 kt from SAB, while the objective ADT\r\nhas dropped well into tropical storm territory.  The initial winds\r\nare only lowered to 65 kt to allow for a gradual spin down of the\r\ncirculation, but this estimate could be generous.  Due to\r\nprogressively colder sea surface temperatures and persistent shear,\r\ncontinued weakening is forecast.  Gaston could lose its deep\r\nconvection in about 36 hours after it has passed the Azores, and\r\nthat's when it is expected to become post-tropical.  Dissipation is\r\nstill forecast by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of\r\nthe previous one and most closely follows the LGEM.\r\n\r\nNow that Gaston's center is exposed, there is more confidence in\r\nthe initial motion (075/20 kt).  Gaston is expected to move\r\neastward or east-northeastward at a slower forward speed near the\r\nwestern and central Azores during the next 36 hours.  After that\r\ntime, the shallow remnant low should turn northeastward ahead of an\r\napproaching cold front.  The track guidance remains in good\r\nagreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the TVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 38.3N  36.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 38.8N  33.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 39.4N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 40.6N  27.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 42.7N  23.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":43,"Date":"2016-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery and two earlier microwave images\r\nshow the center of circulation decoupled well to the west of the\r\nremaining deep convection.  The initial intensity is decreased to\r\n55 kt for this advisory and is based on a blend of the subjective\r\nand objective satellite intensity estimates.  Continued weakening is\r\nexpected as the cyclone traverses cooler oceanic sea surface\r\ntemperatures and remains in a strong vertical shear environment.\r\nGaston is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours,\r\nwith dissipation in about 48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and is close to the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus model.\r\n\r\nBecause Gaston's low-level circulation has decoupled from the\r\nmid-level flow due to the persistent strong shear, the cyclone's\r\nforward speed has decreased while moving eastward, or 080/13 kt.\r\nThis general motion is expected to continue during the next couple\r\nof days.  At the 36-hour period, Gaston should turn northeastward in\r\nresponse to a frontal system approaching from the northwest and\r\nopen up into a trough of low pressure in a couple of days.  The NHC\r\ntrack foreast remains near the middle of the tightly clustered model\r\nguidance and is similar to the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 38.5N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 38.9N  31.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 39.7N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 41.3N  26.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts/Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":44,"Date":"2016-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nData from a recent ASCAT overpass indicate that the storm\r\nis a little stronger than previously estimated.  The advisory\r\nintensity is set to 60 kt based on the scatterometer winds.\r\nVertical shear over the system is currently around 20 kt and is\r\nforecast to increase to near 30 kt within the next day or so, and\r\nthe cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler waters.\r\nWeakening is forecast in agreement with the IVCN intensity model\r\nconsensus.  Gaston should weaken to a remnant low before becoming\r\nabsorbed by a frontal system in 48 hours or less.\r\n\r\nBased on the scatterometer data and conventional geostationary\r\nsatellite fixes, the motion is east-northeastward or 070/16.\r\nGaston should continue on an east-northeastward track, following the\r\nflow on the south side of the mid-latitude westerlies, until\r\ndissipation.  The official track forecast is close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 39.1N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 39.5N  29.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 40.7N  27.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 42.5N  24.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":45,"Date":"2016-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nGaston is practically devoid of deep convection, and it is assumed\r\nthat a significant spindown has occurred today.  Under this\r\nassumption, the advisory intensity is set at 45 kt which is\r\nin agreement with a Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB.\r\nSince the cyclone will be moving over the colder waters to the\r\nnorth of the Azores and through an environment of strong shear, the\r\nforecast calls for the system to degenerate into a remnant low in\r\n24 hours, and this event may occur even sooner than that.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and geostationary satellite fixes, along with\r\nobservations from Flores in the Azores, indicate that the motion is\r\naround 070/15 kt.  Gaston should curve gradually toward the\r\nnortheast, ahead of a broad trough in the mid-latitude westerlies,\r\nuntil dissipation.  The official track forecast is very close to the\r\ndynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 39.6N  30.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 40.3N  28.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 42.1N  25.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 44.3N  21.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Gaston","Adv":46,"Date":"2016-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nA 2222 UTC ASCAT-B pass indicated that Gaston was producing maximum\r\nwinds of 30-35 kt in its southeastern quadrant.  The initial\r\nintensity is therefore lowered to 35 kt, but Gaston won't be a\r\ntropical storm for much longer.  The last bit of deep convection\r\ndissipated around 1800 UTC, so the cyclone is likely to be declared\r\npost-tropical Saturday morning.  The remnant low is likely to\r\nmaintain 30-kt winds until it dissipates in 36 hours, based on\r\nguidance from the global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 070/14 kt.  The remnant low is expected to\r\nturn northeastward and accelerate away from the Azores during the\r\nnext 24 hours ahead of an approaching cold front.  The track models\r\nagree on this scenario, and the NHC forecast remains close to the\r\nTVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 40.1N  28.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 41.1N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 43.3N  23.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Gaston","Adv":47,"Date":"2016-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL072016\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 03 2016\r\n\r\nGaston has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours,\r\nand is now a swirl of stratocumulus clouds. Since the cyclone is\r\nmoving over 22-23 deg C waters and embedded in northwesterly shear\r\nof about 35 kt, the likelihood that any new convection would reform\r\nis slim.  Given this, Gaston is being declared a post-tropical\r\nremnant low on this advisory. Without any new convection\r\nredeveloping the vortex is expected to spin down rather quickly, and\r\nglobal models show Gaston opening up into a trough in about 18\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 065/15.  The post-tropical cyclone\r\nshould accelerate east-northeastward at the base of the mid-\r\nlatitude westerlies today, and then turn northeastward ahead of a\r\ntrough digging over Atlantic Canada prior to dissipation on Sunday.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued on Gaston by the National\r\nHurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be\r\nfound in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header\r\nFQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at\r\nhttp://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 40.5N  26.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 42.4N  24.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure located west of Bermuda has been producing\r\nintermittent organized deep convection for the last 24 hours or so,\r\nand the convection has increased markedly since 06Z.  Given this,\r\nand the well-defined center shown by an overnight ASCAT pass,\r\nadvisories are now being initiated on this system as a tropical\r\ncyclone.  The initial intensity is estimated to be 30 kt based on\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimates of T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB.  An Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate\r\nthe depression this afternoon.\r\n\r\nThe environment is only expected to be marginally conducive for\r\nintensification, with moderate southeasterly to easterly shear\r\nexpected to become southwesterly and increase further in 36 to 48\r\nhours.  As a result, only modest strengthening is shown in the\r\nofficial forecast, with the depression expected to become a tropical\r\nstorm in the next day or two.  After that time, the global models\r\nshow the cyclone opening up along a frontal zone well offshore of\r\nthe northeastern United States.  However, there is some disagreement\r\nin when this will occur, with the GFS showing the cyclone\r\ndissipating in about 3 days, and the ECMWF hanging onto it until\r\naround day 5.  As a compromise, the NHC forecast shows dissipation\r\nafter day 4, but this timing is quite uncertain.\r\n\r\nThe depression is currently situated south of a mid-level ridge that\r\nextends from the Mid-Atlantic states into the western Atlantic, and\r\nthe initial motion estimate is 280/08.  The ridge is forecast to\r\nbreak down and shift eastward during the next 2-3 days, which should\r\nresult in the cyclone gradually turning poleward and then recurving\r\nduring the next 72 hours.  The NHC track forecast is close to a\r\nblend of the GFS and ECMWF models through dissipation.  This\r\nforecast keeps the center of the cyclone east of the Outer Banks of\r\nNorth Carolina, but a tropical storm watch may be needed for that\r\narea later today.\r\n\r\nBased on an evaluation of satellite imagery and data during the past\r\nfew days, it appears that the remnants of Tropical Storm Fiona are\r\nnot directly responsible for the genesis of this depression.  The\r\nFiona remnants were absorbed into a separate area of pre-existing\r\nvorticity, with the current depression developing out of the\r\ncombined system.  As a result, this is considered to be a new\r\ntropical cyclone, not a regeneration of a previous tropical\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 31.5N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 32.1N  71.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 32.9N  73.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 33.6N  74.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 34.2N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 36.5N  73.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 39.0N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of the depression is now exposed, with the deep\r\nconvection diminishing and displaced to the northwest of the center\r\ndue to about 15 to 20 kt of southeasterly shear.  Data from an Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft suggest that the intensity\r\nremains 30 kt based on the highest believable SFMR winds and peak\r\nflight-level winds of 32 kt.\r\n\r\nGiven the current satellite presentation and an environment that is\r\nonly expected to be marginally conducive for intensification, only\r\nmodest strengthening is shown in the official forecast, with the\r\ndepression expected to become a tropical storm in the next day or\r\ntwo.  After that time the shear should increase as the system\r\naccelerates northeastward, and the global models show the cyclone\r\nbeing absorbed by a front in about 4 days.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to the intensity consensus through 48 hours and a\r\nlittle below it at 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/08.  While the synoptic reasoning\r\nhas not changed, the sheared state of the cyclone could lead to some\r\nerratic motion if it remains a shallow system. Assuming deep\r\nconvection returns, the cyclone is expected to gradually recurve\r\nduring the next 48 to 72 hours, with a slow northwestward motion\r\nexpected in 24 to 48 hours, bringing the center just offshore of the\r\nOuter Banks of North Carolina.  Given the uncertainty in the\r\nintensity forecast and the timing of the approach to the coast, a\r\ntropical storm watch is not being issued at this time, but one may\r\nbe required later tonight.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 31.8N  70.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 32.2N  72.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 33.0N  73.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 33.7N  74.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 34.3N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 36.8N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows that Tropical Depression Eight is currently\r\ncomprised of a swirl of low-level clouds accompanied by minimal\r\nshower activity.  This structure is due to the impacts of 20-25 kt\r\nof southeasterly vertical wind shear and abundant mid- to\r\nupper-level dry air seen in water vapor imagery.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that is the\r\ninitial intensity for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 285/9.  For the next 48 hours, the depression\r\nis expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward toward a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.\r\nAfter that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through\r\nthe northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and\r\ncause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new\r\ntrack forecast lies near the consensus models through 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease during the\r\nnext 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist\r\nenvironment.  Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing\r\nstrengthening as the system approaches the coast of North Carolina.\r\nThe intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but it is on\r\nthe low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty about\r\nwhether the environment will become as favorable as the models are\r\nsuggesting.  After recurvature, the cyclone is forecast to merge\r\nwith a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe 48 hour position is about 35 n mi from Cape Hatteras.  This,\r\ncombined with the various uncertainties in the forecast, requires a\r\ntropical storm watch for portions of the North Carolina coast at\r\nthis time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 32.2N  72.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 32.8N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 33.5N  74.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 34.1N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 34.9N  75.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 37.6N  71.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the structure of the depression\r\nsince the last advisory, as it is comprised of a swirl of low-level\r\nclouds accompanied by minimal shower activity.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB remain 30 kt, so that again is the\r\ninitial intensity for this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion now is 300/9.  For the next 36-48 hours, the\r\ndepression is expected to move generally northwestward toward a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina coast.\r\nAfter that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving through\r\nthe northeastern United States is forecast to erode the ridge and\r\ncause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and no\r\nsignificant changes have been made to the forecast track through 48\r\nhours.  After that time, the guidance shows a more eastward motion,\r\nand the forecast has been nudged to the right of the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models still forecast the shear to decrease during\r\nthe next 48 hours and for the depression to move into a more moist\r\nenvironment.  Based on this, the intensity guidance is showing\r\nmodest strengthening as the system approaches the coast of North\r\nCarolina.  The intensity forecast also shows some strengthening, but\r\nit is on the low side of the guidance envelope due to uncertainty\r\nabout whether the environment will become as favorable as the models\r\nare suggesting, and about whether the cyclone will be able to\r\nmaintain organized convection.  After recurvature, the cyclone is\r\nforecast to merge with a cold front and dissipate after 72 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 32.6N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 33.2N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 33.8N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 34.4N  75.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 35.4N  74.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 38.0N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nThe Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not find many\r\nchanges to the depression this morning, with maximum believable SFMR\r\nwinds of about 30 kt.  This value will remain the initial wind\r\nspeed.  Satellite images indicate the cyclone continues to struggle\r\nto produce convection, likely due to moderate shear and plentiful\r\ndry air aloft.  The environment is forecast to become more conducive\r\nover the next 24 hours, with a slight decrease in shear and\r\nan increase in moisture.  Thus, the latest forecast still shows the\r\ndepression becoming a tropical storm by Tuesday.  Most of the\r\nguidance suggests the cyclone will strengthen in a couple of days\r\nwhile it moves northeastward away from the Carolinas as it moves\r\nright along the Gulf Stream.  Since the previous forecast is almost\r\nidentical to the new model consensus, no significant changes are\r\nmade to the final NHC intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northwestward, now at about 6 kt.  The\r\ncyclone should slow down and begin to turn to the north as it\r\nreaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the North Carolina\r\ncoast.  In 36 to 48 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave trough moving\r\nthrough the northeastern United States is forecast to erode the\r\nridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into the\r\nwesterlies.  The guidance is in fairly good agreement, and\r\nthe latest NHC track forecast is close to the previous one.  The\r\ncyclone should be absorbed within a large extratropical cyclone in\r\nabout 4 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 33.2N  73.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 33.8N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 34.4N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 35.1N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 36.2N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 39.0N  68.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite and radar images suggest that the depression is becoming\r\nbetter organized.  Convection has formed in the northwestern\r\nquadrant, with some banding features in the northern semicircle of\r\nthe cyclone.  Aircraft data, however, show that the pressure has\r\nstayed the same as 6 hours ago and the winds have not increased.\r\nThus the initial wind speed remains 30 kt.  This burst of convection\r\nshould eventually lead to some intensification as environmental\r\nfactors (less shear and more moisture) are forecast to become a\r\nlittle more favorable. Most of the guidance are in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario on gradual intensification, and the latest forecast is\r\nclose to the previous one and the model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe depression is still moving northwestward at about 6 kt.\r\nThere has been no change to the synoptic reasoning from the last\r\nadvisory cycle. The cyclone should slow down and turn northward\r\ntomorrow as it reaches a weakness in the subtropical ridge near the\r\nNorth Carolina coast.  In about 36 hours, a mid-latitude shortwave\r\ntrough moving through the northeastern United States is forecast to\r\nerode the ridge and cause the cyclone to recurve northeastward into\r\nthe westerlies.  The latest NHC prediction is very close to the\r\nprevious one, between the model consensus and the GFS model.  The\r\ncyclone should dissipate or be absorbed within a large extratropical\r\ncyclone in about 4 days.\r\n\r\nDue to the close pass of the cyclone to the Outer Banks, a Tropical\r\nStorm Warning has been issued for the coast of North Carolina from\r\nCape Lookout to Oregon Inlet, including Pamlico Sound.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 33.6N  74.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 34.0N  74.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 34.6N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 35.4N  74.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 36.7N  72.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 40.5N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nThe increase in convective organization that occurred earlier today\r\nhas not persisted, and the convection associated with Tropical\r\nDepression Eight is currently minimal and disorganized.  The\r\ninitial intensity will remain 30 kt, pending the arrival of the next\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near 0900 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear\r\nenvironment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest\r\nstrengthening is possible if convection can persist near the\r\ncenter.  After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due to\r\nbaroclinic influences as the cyclone begin to interact with a\r\nfrontal zone.  The new intensity forecast is the same as the\r\nprevious forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the\r\nLGEM model.  It should be noted that the system could dissipate\r\nbefore 72 hours as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/4.  The depression\r\nshould continue a slow northwestward to northward motion toward a\r\nbreak in the subtropical ridge for the next 24 hours or so.  After\r\nthat, it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies in\r\nadvance of an approaching baroclinic trough.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is an update of the previous track and lies near the center\r\nof the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 33.8N  74.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 34.2N  74.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 34.9N  74.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 36.0N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 37.5N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 41.5N  61.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nConvection has again increased in association with Tropical\r\nDepression Eight, with the data from the Morehead City, North\r\nCarolina, WSR-88D radar showing weak convective banding in the\r\nnorthern semicircle. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft up to this writing show flight-level winds\r\nof less than 30 kt and a central pressure near 1010 mb.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 30 kt, and this might be generous.\r\n\r\nThe depression should be in a moderate westerly vertical shear\r\nenvironment for the next 24 hours or so, but some modest\r\nstrengthening is possible if the current convection can persist near\r\nthe center.  After 24 hours, some strengthening is also possible due\r\nto baroclinic influences as the cyclone begins to interact with a\r\nfrontal zone.  The new intensity forecast is the same as the\r\nprevious forecast, and it is in best overall agreement with the\r\nLGEM model.  One change to the intensity forecast is to indicate\r\nthat the system will become an extratropical low at about 72 hours\r\nbefore the cyclone dissipates within the frontal zone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/5.  The depression\r\nshould start a slow northward motion toward a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge later today.  After that, it should recurve\r\nnortheastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching\r\nmid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front.\r\nThe new forecast track is nudged a little to the west of the\r\nprevious track during the first 24 hours based on the initial\r\nposition. After that time, it is similar to the previous track and\r\nlies near the center of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 33.9N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 34.4N  75.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 35.3N  74.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 36.5N  72.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 38.4N  69.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 43.0N  58.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression has been difficult to pinpoint even\r\nwith radar and aircraft data concurrently this morning, probably\r\ndue to the nearby thunderstorm activity.  Overall, the depression\r\nremains disorganized, with no significant wind or pressure changes\r\nnoted since the last advisory.  The initial wind speed remains 30\r\nkt. The environment seems conducive for some strengthening over the\r\nnext couple of days while the depression moves near the Gulf Stream\r\nin light-to-moderate shear.  Thus, the latest NHC intensity forecast\r\nshows gradual intensification, and is near, or slightly below the\r\nintensity consensus.  Global models indicate the system will become\r\nan extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone dissipates\r\nwithin the frontal zone.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a very uncertain 335/4.  The depression\r\nshould start a slow northward motion toward a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge later today.  After that, it should recurve\r\nnortheastward into the westerlies in advance of an approaching\r\nmid- to upper-level trough and an associated surface cold front.\r\nThe new forecast track is moved a little to the west of the\r\nprevious track during the first 24 hours based primarily on the\r\ninitial position, on the western side of the guidance envelope.\r\nAfter that time, it is similar to the previous track and is blended\r\nback toward the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 34.2N  75.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 34.8N  75.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 35.7N  74.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 37.2N  71.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 39.4N  67.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 45.0N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the depression remains disorganized.\r\nThe low- and mid-level centers are not well aligned, with\r\nconvection continuing only sporadically near the center.  The\r\ninitial wind speed remains 30 kt.  Despite the lack of\r\nstrengthening, the environment appears conducive for some\r\nintensification eventually over the next couple of days while the\r\ndepression moves near the Gulf Stream in light-to-moderate shear.\r\nThe intensity forecast is reduced a little in the short term to\r\naccount for the current disorganized structure, then no change was\r\nmade to the remainder of the intensity forecast. The system should\r\nbecome an extratropical low in 2 or 3 days before the cyclone\r\ndissipates within a frontal zone.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been drifting recently, but it should start a slow\r\nnorth-northeastward motion by tonight as it enters the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies.  The mid-latitude flow then increases, which should\r\ncause the depression to accelerate northeastward.  Model guidance is\r\ntightly clustered, and little change was made to the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nModel guidance indicates the system is nearing its closest point of\r\napproach to the Outer Banks.  We have elected to continue the\r\nTropical Storm Warning for this advisory, but this could be lowered\r\ntonight if a more consistent motion away from the coast becomes\r\nestablished.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 34.4N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 35.0N  74.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 36.3N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 38.3N  69.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 41.0N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 45.0N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters\r\nindicate that the center of the depression is located near the\r\nsouthwestern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection.  The\r\nplane did not find any stronger winds than in previous missions,\r\nand the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  Westerly vertical shear\r\naffecting the cyclone is not expected to decrease, and in fact it\r\nshould increase substantially from 24 hours and beyond.  Still, if\r\nthe system can maintain deep convection while it remains over warm\r\nsea surface temperatures for the next 36 hours or so, the mere fact\r\nthat it is expected to accelerate from this point forward could\r\nallow the maximum winds to increase.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nvery similar to the previous one, but it does allow for possible\r\nstrengthening to tropical storm strength in about 12 hours.  The\r\ncyclone should become extratropical by 72 hours, but after that\r\nthere is some uncertainty whether it will be absorbed by another\r\ncyclone or become the dominant system.  For now, the forecast\r\ncontinues to show it becoming absorbed, which is in line with the\r\nECMWF.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is beginning to\r\nmove away from the Outer Banks with an initial motion of 040/4 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to accelerate toward the northeast and then\r\neast-northeast through the forecast period.  The track models are\r\nin very good agreement, and no significant changes were required to\r\nthe official track forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 34.5N  74.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 35.4N  73.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 37.1N  71.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 39.3N  66.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 41.5N  59.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 45.1N  45.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe low-level center is difficult to find, but given the strong\r\nwesterly shear and continuity, it is assumed that it is located to\r\nthe west of a large area of deep convection devoid of banding\r\nfeatures. Dvorak numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity\r\nremains at 30 kt. Most of the guidance shows a significant increase\r\nin the shear, but at the same time forecasts a slight increase in\r\nintensity. The NHC forecast follows the guidance and the previous\r\nforecast showing a slight increase in the winds before the cyclone\r\nbecomes extratropical in 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving slowly toward the northeast at 4 kt, and\r\nis already embedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of an\r\namplifying mid-latitude trough. This pattern favors a continuation\r\nof the northeast track away from the U.S coast with a significant\r\nincrease in forward speed.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 34.8N  74.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 35.7N  72.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 37.7N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 40.0N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 42.5N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression looks a little better organized this morning, with a\r\nlarge band on the eastern side of the circulation.  However,\r\nsatellite classifications still support keeping the system as a\r\n30-kt tropical depression for now.  The cyclone has about 36 hours\r\nto intensify over warm water with moderate shear before the\r\nenvironment becomes less conducive.  The latest NHC intensity\r\nforecast blends the previous one with the new consensus guidance,\r\nwhich results in a slightly higher forecast.  The global models\r\nsuggest the system will become extratropical in about 48 hours, and\r\nbe absorbed within a larger frontal zone in 3 or 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe latest satellite fixes indicate that the depression has finally\r\nstarted to move faster toward the northeast.  The cyclone should\r\ncontinue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly\r\nflow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough.  This pattern\r\nfavors a continuation of the northeast track away from the U.S coast\r\nwith a significant increase in forward speed.  The guidance is well\r\nclustered, and the new NHC track prediction is basically an update\r\nof the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 35.5N  73.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 36.6N  71.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 38.8N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 41.0N  60.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 43.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 46.0N  40.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThis depression has been a challenging cyclone.  After the earlier\r\napparent improvement in the cloud pattern, recent satellite images\r\nindicate the system has actually become less organized.  While there\r\nis a broken band in the eastern semicircle, the depression looks\r\nelongated, with a less well-defined center.  The initial wind speed\r\nis reduced to 25 kt on this advisory, which is backed up by ASCAT\r\ndata of 20 to 25 kt.\r\n\r\nI'm beginning to think that the long-forecast intensification is not\r\ngoing to occur with this depression.  Other than persistence, this\r\nidea is supported by the higher shear values in the recent SHIPS and\r\nglobal model guidance.  While I'm not ready to totally abandon any\r\nstrengthening, the new NHC forecast is reduced 5 to 10 kt from\r\nthe previous one and is below the model consensus.  The cyclone\r\nshould become extratropical within 2 days, and be absorbed within a\r\nlarger frontal zone in 3 days.  An alternative, but realistic,\r\nscenario, is that the cyclone becomes a remnant low tomorrow due to\r\nmarginal environmental conditions causing a lack of organized deep\r\nconvection.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving northeastward at about 14 kt. It should\r\ncontinue to accelerate to the northeast within the southwesterly\r\nflow ahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough.  No significant\r\nchange to the previous forecast was made.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 36.3N  71.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 37.7N  69.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 39.9N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 42.0N  57.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 44.0N  51.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n1100 PM EDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection is becoming increasingly dislocated from the center\r\nof the tropical depression because of the strong westerly vertical\r\nshear.  Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB continue to drop\r\nas the convection becomes less organized.  The initial intensity\r\nremains 25 kt.\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression should not be long for this world.  Last-\r\nlight visible imagery suggests that the center may be becoming\r\ndiffuse. The deep convection may soon either dissipate or be located\r\nfar from the center.  The system may shortly become entangled in a\r\nfrontal boundary.  If the center is no longer well defined, if there\r\nis no associated organized deep convection, or if the cyclone\r\nbecomes frontal, then the system will no longer be a tropical\r\ncyclone.  One or more of these options should occur within about a\r\nday, if not sooner.  In about two days, the post-tropical cyclone is\r\nlikely to be absorbed in a separate extratropical low.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving toward the east-northeast at about 14 kt,\r\nas it is being swept up by the southwesterlies ahead of a\r\nmid-latitude shortwave trough.  The system should accelerate in the\r\nsame direction until dissipation.  The track is based upon the\r\nconsensus of the reliable global models and is nearly the same as\r\nthat from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 36.7N  70.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 38.2N  66.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 40.5N  60.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 43.0N  54.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Eight","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082016\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection is now displaced more than 100 nm east of the\r\nlocation suspected to be the center of the tropical depression.\r\nHowever, the 0224Z ASCAT scatterometer overpass showed that the\r\nsystem has opened up into a trough.  Thus the system is no longer\r\nconsidered to be a tropical cyclone.  Maximum winds continue to be\r\naround 25 kt, associated with the remnants of the tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nAdditional information on this system can be found in High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web\r\nat http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 38.2N  69.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nData from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the area of\r\nlow pressure located in the Florida Straits now has a well-defined\r\ncenter.  Satellite imagery shows a significant increase in the\r\nconvective organization today, and as a result the system is now\r\nclassified as a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set to\r\n30 kt based on the highest believable wind data from the aircraft,\r\nwhich reported a central pressure of 1009 mb.\r\n\r\nThe depression will be moving through a marginal environment for\r\nintensification during the next day or so, with vertical shear of\r\n15 to 20 kt.  As a result only slow strengthening is expected in\r\nthe short term.  Later on, the environment may improve a little as\r\nthe shear is forecast to decrease somewhat and become\r\nsouthwesterly, which should allow for a little more strengthening.\r\nHowever, there are mixed signals in the model guidance, with the\r\nECMWF now showing the cyclone dissipating in the Gulf, while the\r\nGFS delays development until 4-5 days.  Much of the tropical\r\ncyclone guidance is more aggressive.  Given this uncertainty, the\r\nNHC intensity forecast is quite conservative and shows the system\r\npeaking at 45 kt, below all the explicit intensity guidance in\r\nconsideration of the negative signal from the ECMWF.  Needless to\r\nsay, the confidence in the intensity forecast is even lower than\r\nusual for this system.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/09 given the recent\r\nformation of the center.  The cyclone will be steered in the short\r\nrange by a mid-level ridge centered over the southeastern United\r\nStates.  This ridge will weaken in 2-3 days, which will cause the\r\ncyclone to slow down and turn northward during this time.  Late in\r\nthe period a northeastward acceleration is expected ahead of an\r\napproaching mid-latitude trough.  There is reasonable agreement in\r\nthe track of the cyclone in the global model guidance, although\r\nthere is a fair bit of along-track spread late in the period.  The\r\nNHC forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through\r\nday 4 and is a little faster than the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean at\r\nday 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 23.7N  81.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 23.9N  83.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 24.3N  85.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 24.6N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 25.1N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 26.8N  87.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 29.0N  84.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 31.0N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nFlight-level wind data from an earlier NOAA reconnaissance mission\r\nalong with WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Key West indicate that\r\nthe depression had been moving southwestward between 1800-0000 UTC.\r\nHowever, the most recent radar data and nearby surface observations\r\nsuggest that the cyclone has now turned toward the west. The last\r\nreliable wind data from the NOAA WP-3 recon aircraft supported an\r\nintensity of 30 kt, and that intensity is being maintained for this\r\nadvisory given that the radar and satellite signatures haven't\r\nimproved. The central pressure of 1007 mb is based on a reliable\r\nobservation from ship WMKN, located just north of the center.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/08 kt. Now that deep convection\r\nhas waned, the system has turned westward and this motion is\r\nexpected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This short term\r\nmotion is supported by NOAA recon dropsonde data on the return leg\r\nhome, which indicated that 500 mb heights were 10-20 meters higher\r\nover the southeastern Gulf of Mexico than what the global models\r\nhave been forecasting. After that time, the global and regional\r\nmodels are in surprisingly good agreement on the cyclone slowing\r\ndown and turning toward the west-northwest and then northward in the\r\n36- to 48-hour periods as the depression moves around the western\r\nperiphery of a narrow subtropical ridge that is expected to be\r\nlocated over the Bahamas and South Florida at that time. By 72 hours\r\nand beyond, the tropical cyclone is forecast to lift out and\r\naccelerate to the northeast as a shortwave trough over the western\r\nGreat Lakes digs southeastward and captures the depression. The new\r\nNHC forecast track has been shifted to the right of the previous\r\nadvisory track mainly due to the more southerly initial position,\r\nand lies a little to the left of the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nStrong vertical shear that has been plaguing this system for the\r\npast week is expected to gradually subside to less than 10 kt in\r\n18-24 hours, which should allow for more organized deep convection\r\nto develop. However, the southerly low-level inflow will still be\r\ndisrupted by the terrain of western Cuba until the cyclone moves\r\nwest of 85W longitude, which will then provide a straight trajectory\r\nacross the Yucatan Channel and into the low-level center. By 36\r\nhours and beyond, the depression will moving over SSTs greater\r\nthan 30C and the light vertical wind shear is expected to back\r\naround from a northerly to a southwesterly direction, which usually\r\nfavors more significant intensification. However, dry air in the\r\nmid-/upper-levels noted in the recent 0000 UTC soundings from Key\r\nWest northward to the Gulf coast is expected be entrained into the\r\nnorthwestern semicircle of the cyclone's circulation by 48 hours\r\nand beyond, and this appears to be the main inhibiting factor to\r\nstrengthening by the global models. Given these mixed signals, the\r\nNHC intensity forecast remains conservative and closely follows the\r\nintensity model IVCN. The confidence in the intensity forecast\r\nremains lower than usual for this system.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 23.4N  82.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 23.5N  84.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 23.8N  85.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 24.4N  86.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 25.1N  87.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 27.0N  86.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 29.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 31.2N  78.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the depression is quite ragged this\r\nmorning, with little deep convection over the southeastern Gulf\r\nof Mexico or Straits of Florida.  The thunderstorm activity that was\r\nlocated to the east and southeast of the center yesterday afternoon\r\nand evening, has propagated southwestward and is now located over\r\nCuba and the extreme northern Caribbean Sea, well south of the\r\ncenter due to moderate to strong northerly shear.  Data from a NOAA\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft have been very helpful in locating the\r\nlow-level center overnight, and wind reports from the aircraft\r\nindicate that the depression still has winds of 25 to 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast for the depression remains of lower\r\nconfidence than normal.  The strong northerly upper-level winds\r\ncurrently over the system are forecast to decrease today, and the\r\ndepression should be in a more conducive upper-level environment\r\nfor a day or two.  However, the global models indicate that dry\r\nmid-level air will remain near and to the northwest of the system,\r\nand that, combined with the current poor organization of the\r\ndepression, suggests that any intensification should be slow to\r\noccur during the next day or so.  After 48 hours, the upper-level\r\nwinds should turn southwestward and become more diffluent over the\r\nsystem due to a mid- to upper-level trough that will be digging\r\nsouthward over the eastern United States.  This could result in a\r\nlittle more favorable environment, and the NHC forecast calls for\r\ngradual intensification between 72 and 120 hours.  The NHC forecast\r\nremains on the conservative side, and is between the more aggressive\r\nstatistical guidance and the global models, which do not\r\nsignificantly deepen the system until it moves into the western\r\nAtlantic.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft fixes indicate that the depression is moving generally\r\nwestward at about 8 kt.  The tropical cyclone should move westward\r\nto west-northwestward today to the south of a low- to mid-level\r\nridge.  The depression should turn northwestward and then northward\r\naround the western portion of the ridge on Tuesday.  After that\r\ntime, the aforementioned digging trough should begin to steer\r\nthe cyclone northeastward at a faster forward speed.  Most of the\r\ntrack guidance is in agreement with this scenario, although there\r\nare some differences on how fast the system will move northeastward\r\ntoward the Florida peninsula.  The update NHC track is close to a\r\nconsensus of the global models, and is not very different than the\r\nprevious NHC advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 23.5N  83.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 23.7N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 24.1N  86.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 24.7N  87.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 25.4N  87.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 27.8N  85.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 30.5N  81.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 33.0N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the tropical cyclone increased this\r\nmorning, especially around western Cuba where rainfall totals of up\r\nto 12 inches may have occurred.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\ninvestigated the system earlier this morning and did not find winds\r\nof tropical storm force.  Based on those observations, and Dvorak\r\nsatellite estimates, the current intensity is held at 30 kt.  An Air\r\nForce Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the\r\ndepression this afternoon, which should give a better estimate of\r\nthe strength of the system.  Vertical shear should remain modest\r\nfor the next couple of days, but begin to increase around 72 hours\r\nas the environment becomes more baroclinic with strong upper-level\r\nwesterlies prevailing over northern Florida.  This is likely to\r\ndiscourage significant strengthening as the cyclone nears landfall.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is close to the latest\r\nstatistical/dynamical LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe center is not easy to locate but is believed to be situated\r\nnear the northwestern edge of the cloud mass, and the motion is\r\nestimated to be 280/6 kt.  A mid-tropospheric shortwave trough\r\ndeveloping over the southeastern United States is expected to\r\ninduce a turn toward the north and northeast in 2 to 3 days,\r\nfollowed by acceleration toward the east-northeast late in the\r\nforecast period.  The official forecast is similar to that from the\r\nprevious advisory, and is mainly a blend of the latest GFS and\r\nECMWF solutions but leans toward the latter model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 23.6N  84.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 23.9N  85.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 24.4N  86.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 25.0N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 26.1N  86.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 28.6N  83.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 31.5N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 34.0N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nCORRECTED FIRST PARAGRAPH OCEAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone's cloud pattern has not become better organized\r\nthis afternoon, with the low-level center partially exposed just to\r\nthe north of a ragged-looking area of deep convection.  Observations\r\nfrom a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft support keeping the intensity\r\nat 30 kt at this time.  Given the system's currently disorganized\r\nappearance, it does not seem likely that there will be much\r\nstrengthening in the short term.  Since the cyclone will be moving\r\nover very warm waters and in an environment of moderate westerly\r\nshear, however, gradual intensification is expected during the next\r\ncouple of days.  When the system nears the Florida Gulf coast,\r\nincreasing upper-level winds should limit strengthening.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nBased on fixes from the NOAA aircraft, the motion is a slow 290/4\r\nkt.  There is little change to the expected steering flow evolution.\r\nIn 2-3 days, a mid-tropospheric trough is forecast to begin digging\r\nover the southeastern United States.  This feature should cause the\r\ntropical cyclone to turn toward the right while it moves over the\r\neastern Gulf, and to accelerate northeastward across northern\r\nFlorida.  The official track forecast is essentially a blend of the\r\nlatest ECMWF and GFS predictions.\r\n\r\nGiven the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may\r\nbe required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast as early as\r\ntomorrow morning.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 24.0N  84.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 24.2N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 24.6N  86.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 25.5N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 26.8N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 29.3N  83.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 32.5N  77.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 35.0N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1000 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nSince the previous advisory, the depression's convective pattern has\r\nimproved somewhat with the development of a cluster of deep\r\nconvection with tops to -80C having developed near and also east\r\nthrough south of the center. Reports from nearby ships WAHV, J8NY,\r\nand C6CL6, along with reconnaissance data indicate that the\r\nlow-level circulation is slowly improving. The central pressure of\r\n1003 mb is based on a recent NOAA dropsonde report of 1005 mb with\r\n20 kt of wind just north of the center. Since no winds of tropical\r\nstorm force were sampled, the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nSimilar to this time last night, the cyclone has made a jog to the\r\nwest during the earlier convective hiatus period. However, the past\r\ncouple of dropsonde reports suggest that the depression has resumed\r\na longer term motion of 280/06 kt. There is little change to the\r\nprevious forecast track reasoning. Other than having to adjust the\r\nforecast track southward slightly through 48 hours due to the more\r\nsoutherly initial position, the previous advisory track remains\r\nunchanged. The cyclone is forecast to move slowly around the western\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge located over southern\r\nFlorida for the next 36 hours or so. By 48 hours, the depression is\r\nexpected to accelerate northeastward across northern Florida ahead\r\nof a shortwave trough that is forecast to dig southeastward into the\r\nsoutheastern United States and northern Gulf Mexico. The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast lies between a blend of the GFS-ECMWF solutions and\r\nthe consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nData from the NOAA aircraft on its final outbound leg, along with\r\nthe latest 00Z upper-air observations indicate that mid-level\r\nmoisture north and northeast of the cyclone has increased since\r\nyesterday. However, water vapor imagery and upper-air data still\r\nindicate that very dry air lies just west of the cyclone across the\r\ncentral and western Gulf of Mexico. The global and regional models\r\ncontinue to indicate that some of that drier air will be entrained\r\ninto the western part of the cyclone's circulation by 24-36 hours,\r\noffsetting the otherwise favorable upper-level outflow pattern and\r\nvery warm SSTs of more than 30 deg C. Therefore, only gradual\r\nintensification is expected during the next 48 hours or so.  When\r\nthe cyclone nears the Florida Gulf coast, increasing upper-level\r\nwinds are expected to limit strengthening.  The official intensity\r\nforecast lies close to the previous advisory and consensus model\r\nIVCN.\r\n\r\nGiven the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may\r\nbe required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast by tomorrow\r\nmorning.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 23.9N  85.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 24.2N  86.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 24.9N  87.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 25.8N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 27.2N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 30.1N  82.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 33.1N  75.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  04/0000Z 35.8N  68.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n400 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough there has been an increase in convection over the\r\nsoutheastern portion of the depression's circulation, the system is\r\nstill being affected by westerly shear, with the low-level center\r\nexposed to the west of the deep convection.  Recent observations\r\nfrom a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the unmanned NASA Global\r\nHawk indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical\r\nstorm strength.  The NOAA aircraft has reported peak flight level\r\nwinds in the southeastern quadrant of 32 kt, and believable SFMR\r\nwinds of around 30 kt.  A dropsonde from the Global Hawk reported\r\n33 kt surface winds, but the mean-layer wind over the lowest 150 m\r\nsupport winds closer to 30 kt.  A very recent center drop from the\r\nunmanned aircraft indicate that the minimum pressure is 1003 mb.\r\n\r\nThe westerly shear over the depression is forecast to decrease\r\nsomewhat during the next day or so, however dry mid-level air is\r\nexpected to remain near and to the west of the system.  As a\r\nresult of the marginal environment, only gradual strengthening\r\nis predicted during the next couple of days.  This is supported\r\nby the global models which do not significantly deepen the system\r\nuntil is moves over the western Atlantic and interacts with an\r\nupper-level trough.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from\r\nthe previous advisory and remains near the intensity consensus\r\nmodel IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft fixes show that the depression has moved westward\r\nsince the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is\r\n275/6 kt.  The cyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward, then\r\nnorthwestward tonight around a low- to mid-level ridge over\r\nthe western Atlantic and Florida.  After that time, a deepening\r\nmid-latitude trough over the southeastern United States should\r\ncause the system to turn northeastward toward the Florida Big\r\nBend region.  The dynamical models continue to agree on this\r\nscenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of\r\nthe system after 36 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus\r\nof the GFS and ECMWF models.  The more westward initial position has\r\nrequired a westward adjustment to the track through 24 hours, but\r\notherwise, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nGiven the current forecast, a tropical storm or hurricane watch may\r\nbe required for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 23.8N  86.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 24.2N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 24.9N  87.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 26.2N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 27.7N  85.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 30.7N  81.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 33.2N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 35.5N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection once again increased in association with the\r\ncyclone this morning, and satellite images show that very heavy\r\nrains continue over portions of western Cuba, where significant\r\nflooding is likely occurring.  However, the overall organization of\r\nthe system has not changed much since last night.  Dvorak T-numbers\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB have not increased, so the intensity is kept at 30\r\nkt for this advisory.  Another NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft is\r\nscheduled to investigate the cyclone this afternoon to see if the\r\ndepression has become a tropical storm.  The dynamical guidance\r\nindicates that the vertical shear over the system will decrease\r\nslightly during the next day or so but, starting around 48 hours,\r\nwesterly shear is forecast to begin increasing.  This should limit\r\nstrengthening while the system approaches northern Florida.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast was lowered slightly around 48 hours, in\r\nagreement with the latest intensity model consensus.  At the\r\nmoment, there is no intensity guidance that makes this system a\r\nhurricane prior to landfall.\r\n\r\nVisible and microwave imagery, in particular a 1222 UTC SSMIS\r\noverpass, suggest that the center is located near the northern edge\r\nof the dense overcast, and the motion is estimated to be\r\nwest-northwestward or 290/6 kt.  There is little change to the\r\ntrack forecast philosophy.  A mid-tropospheric trough that is\r\nexpected to develop over the southeastern United States should\r\ninduce a turn toward the north, and then northeast, with a gradual\r\nincrease in forward speed over the next few days. This would bring\r\nthe center of the cyclone across the northern Florida peninsula\r\nwithin 60-72 hours.  The official track forecast is about the same\r\nas the previous one, and is mainly a blend of the GFS and ECMWF\r\npredictions.\r\n\r\nGiven the current forecast, a tropical storm watch may be required\r\nfor a portion of the Florida Gulf coast later today.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 24.0N  87.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 24.5N  87.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 25.4N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 26.9N  86.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 28.5N  84.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 31.6N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 34.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 36.5N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n400 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nThe system has still not become better organized on satellite\r\nimagery, with limited evidence of banding features.  There is an\r\napparent mid-level center of circulation located south of the\r\nlow-level center.  The highest flight-level wind reported by a\r\nNOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 34 kt and the highest\r\nSFMR-observed surface winds were 30 kt, which continues to be used\r\nfor the advisory intensity.  There is some evidence of increasing\r\nupper-level outflow to the north.  The latest intensity\r\nguidance is a little more aggressive than before, with a little less\r\nshear forecast over the northern Gulf coast region.  The official\r\nintensity forecast has been increased slightly in comparison to the\r\nprevious one, and is a little below the latest model consensus.\r\nGiven that a couple of the models show the system becoming a\r\nhurricane, and the 48-hour forecast point implies\r\ntropical-storm-force winds near the coast, it is prudent to issue a\r\nhurricane watch for a portion of the northeast Gulf of Mexico coast\r\nat this time.\r\n\r\nFixes from the NOAA aircraft show that the initial motion is\r\nnorthwestward, or 320/4 kt.  The global models continue to show a\r\nmid-tropospheric trough developing over the southeastern United\r\nStates during the next couple of days.  This should cause the\r\ntropical cyclone to turn toward the north and north-northeast in\r\n24-48 hours.  The dynamical track guidance models have shifted a\r\nbit to the west compared to their earlier runs, as has the\r\nmulti-model consensus.  Therefore the official track forecast is\r\nalso west of the previous one.\r\n\r\nIt is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this\r\nsystem.  Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is\r\nlikely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 24.4N  87.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 24.9N  87.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 26.0N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 27.5N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 29.0N  84.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 32.9N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 36.5N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 39.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective organization of the cyclone has improved markedly\r\nsince this time yesterday, and especially since the previous\r\nadvisory, with a large convective cloud mass having developed around\r\nthe well-defined low-level center. Ship C6FN5 located about 80 nmi\r\nsouth of the center at 00Z reported a 35-kt wind, but at an elevated\r\nheight of 43 meters, which adjusts down to a 10-meter wind of 30-31\r\nkt. The recent NOAA recon flight also confirmed that winds of about\r\n30 kt existed, so the intensity will remain unchanged at 30 kt for\r\nthis advisory.\r\n\r\nFixes from the NOAA aircraft indicated a west-southwestward motion\r\nover the previous 6 hours. However, this is believed to be a\r\ntemporary motion that was likely just the result of the center\r\nredeveloping closer to strongest convection in the southern\r\nquadrant. Since that time, little motion or just a slight drift\r\ntoward the north-northwest at 2 kt is indicated by satellite\r\nimagery. The latest 00Z upper-air data showed the depression is now\r\nlocated along or just north of the subtropical ridge axis that is\r\noriented east-west across the Florida Straits, a steering pattern\r\nthat favors a northward motion during the next 12 hours or so. After\r\nthat time, the NHC model guidance is in excellent agreement on a\r\nshortwave trough currently over the central U.S. digging\r\nsoutheastward to the northeast Gulf coast and lifting out and\r\naccelerating the cyclone toward the northeast by 36 hours. Due to\r\nthe uncertainty in the short term motion, the new official forecast\r\nwas not shifted as far west as the latest model consensus and\r\ninstead lies very close to the previous advisory track.\r\n\r\nUnlike the previous several days, deep convection has finally\r\ndeveloped north of the low-level center during the past 6 hours,\r\nand more recent satellite trends suggest that some inner-core\r\ncurved banding features may be developing. The upper-level outflow\r\nhas been improving and expanding in all quadrants now that the\r\nvertical wind shear has decreased to less than 10 kt and has shifted\r\nfrom a northerly to a westerly component. Some additional decrease\r\nin the shear is forecast to occur for the next 36 to 48 hours while\r\nthe cyclone remains in a modestly moist environment. The NHC\r\nintensity guidance has increased as a result of the improving\r\nenvironmental conditions, so the official intensity forecast has\r\nalso been increased, which now shows the cyclone near hurricane\r\nstrength just prior to landfall at 48 hours. No changes to the\r\nexisting hurricane and tropical storm watches are required at this\r\ntime. However, by Wednesday morning, a tropical storm watch may be\r\nneeded for the coasts of northeast Florida and Georgia.\r\n\r\nIt is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this\r\nsystem.  Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is\r\nlikely along the coast well to the east and south of the path of the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 24.3N  87.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 25.1N  87.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 26.3N  87.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 27.8N  85.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 29.6N  83.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 33.4N  77.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 37.1N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 39.0N  68.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n400 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough clusters of deep convection continue to pulsate near\r\nand to the southeast of the center of the tropical cyclone, there\r\nhas been little overall change in organization overnight.  A couple\r\nof ASCAT passes since the previous advisory revealed peak winds of\r\n30 kt, so the system remains a 30-kt tropical depression for this\r\nadvisory.  The upper-level outflow has expanded to the northwest\r\nand north of the cyclone, which suggests that the upper-level wind\r\npattern is becoming more favorable for strengthening.  The SHIPS\r\nmodel indicates that the shear should remain low during the next day\r\nor so, while the cyclone moves over warm water.  This should allow\r\nfor strengthening, and the NHC forecast calls for steady\r\nintensification during the next day or so, which is also supported\r\nby the global models.  The updated intensity forecast is in good\r\nagreement with the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe depresssion has been meandering overnight, but is expected to\r\nbegin a northward or northeastward motion later today.  A deepening\r\ntrough over the southeastern United States should cause the\r\ntropical cyclone to accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward\r\nby tonight.  Although the track guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, the model envelope has shifted slightly westward this\r\ncycle, and the NHC forecast track has been nudged in that\r\ndirection.\r\n\r\nThe new forecast has required the issuance of a Tropical Storm\r\nWarning for a portion of the Florida Gulf coast.  The Hurricane\r\nWatch remains in effect since there is still a possibility that\r\nthe system could become a hurricane before landfall. It is important\r\nnot to focus on the forecast landfall point of this system.  Among\r\nother reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely along the\r\ncoast well to the east and south of the path of the center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 24.5N  88.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 25.4N  87.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 26.9N  86.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 28.4N  85.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 30.3N  83.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 34.2N  76.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 37.0N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 39.0N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1000 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe system is producing vigorous deep convection, but there is\r\nlittle organization to the overall cloud pattern.  Using the Dvorak\r\nrules, a bursting but disorganized convective pattern would indicate\r\nlittle change in strength.  The intensity is held at 30 kt pending\r\nnew observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft in a few\r\nhours.  The tropical cyclone should be in a moderate shear\r\nenvironment, and over very warm water, for the next 36 hours or so.\r\nTherefore, strengthening is forecast and the official forecast\r\nremains close to the intensity model consensus.  Given the\r\nreasonably favorable environment, it is appropriate to maintain the\r\nhurricane watch for the northeast Gulf coast at this time.  The\r\nintensity forecast after 48 hours is problematic since the system\r\nwill be in a decidedly baroclinic environment and under strong\r\nupper-level southwesterly flow.  This means that any intensification\r\nthat occurs in 2-3 days will likely have a contribution from\r\nbaroclinic processes.  By 96 hours, the global models depict the\r\nsystem as embedded in a frontal zone, so extratropical transition is\r\nforecast to occur by that time.\r\n\r\nThe center is very difficult to locate, but observations from a ship\r\nsuggest that there has been little motion since earlier this\r\nmorning, so the initial motion estimate is stationary.  There has\r\nbeen little change to the track forecast guidance.  A 500-mb trough\r\nover the southeastern United States should cause the cyclone to move\r\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward across northern Florida and\r\nsoutheastern Georgia during the next couple of days.  Later in the\r\nforecast period there is uncertainty as to how far offshore the\r\ncenter will move, with some of the global models such as the GFS\r\nand the U.K. Met being close to the northeastern states, and the\r\nECMWF somewhat farther east.  The official track forecast lies\r\nbetween these two possibilities.\r\n\r\nIt is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this\r\nsystem.  Among other reasons, dangerous storm surge flooding is\r\nlikely to extend along the Gulf coast well to the east and south of\r\nthe path of the center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 24.6N  88.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 25.9N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 27.3N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 29.0N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 30.9N  82.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 35.0N  75.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 38.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  05/1200Z 40.0N  69.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n400 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe system appears better organized on satellite images than it was\r\nyesterday, with more evidence of convective banding features.\r\nHowever, based on the NOAA Hurricane Hunter data the center is\r\nstill situated near the northern edge of the main convective cloud\r\nmass.  Also, data from the aircraft show a very asymmetric wind\r\nfield with all of the strong winds occurring over the eastern and\r\nsoutheastern portions of the circulation.  The advisory intensity\r\nis set to 40 kt based on SFMR-observed surface winds from the\r\nHurricane Hunters.  Hermine should be in an environment of\r\nmoderate west-southwesterly shear until it nears the coast, when\r\nthe dynamical models show increasing shear.  The official intensity\r\nforecast has been nudged upward a bit, and there is a distinct\r\npossibility that Hermine could become a hurricane before landfall.\r\nThe predicted extratropical transition of the system is based on\r\nthe latest global model forecasts, which show the cyclone becoming\r\nembedded within a front over the eastern United States by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft data show a rather broad area of light winds near the\r\ncenter, making the actual center fixes a little uncertain.\r\nHowever, the best estimate of initial motion is north-northeastward\r\nor 030/6 kt.  A developing mid-level trough over the southeastern\r\nUnited States should cause Hermine to move north-northeastward at\r\nincreasing forward speed over the next couple of days.  The GFS and\r\nECMWF global models have shifted westward from their previous\r\npredictions, and so has the new official forecast.  This required a\r\nwestward extension of the hurricane watch and tropical storm\r\nwarning along the Florida panhandle.  Later in the forecast period,\r\nthere is significant uncertainty in the track of the system, which\r\nwill depend on how the post-tropical cyclone interacts with a\r\nmid-tropospheric cutoff low that develops over the northeastern\r\nUnited States.  The new official forecast keeps the cyclone closer\r\nto the east coast from 72-120 hours in deference to the latest GFS\r\nsolution.\r\n\r\nIt is important not to focus on the forecast landfall point of this\r\nsystem.  In addition to the normal uncertainty in track and\r\nintensity forecasts, dangerous storm surge flooding is likely to\r\nextend along the Gulf coast well to the east and south of\r\nthe path of the center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 25.5N  87.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 26.5N  87.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 28.1N  86.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 30.0N  85.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 32.0N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 36.5N  77.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 39.0N  74.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  05/1800Z 39.5N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1000 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nData from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this\r\nafternoon and evening indicate that Hermine has continued to\r\nstrengthen, based on maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 57 kt and\r\npeak SFMR surface winds of 52 kt. A recent dropsonde in the center\r\nof Hermine measured a pressure of about 998 mb, which is a decrease\r\nof 6 mb from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nRecon fixes over the past 4 hours indicate that the estimated motion\r\nis north-northeastward or 025/09 kt. An approaching mid-tropospheric\r\ntrough located over the southeastern United States and extending\r\nsouthward into the north-central Gulf of Mexico is expected to\r\ngradually lift out Hermine to the north-northeast tonight and\r\nThursday, and then northeastward after 24 hours. The NHC model is\r\nin very good agreement on this developing steering flow pattern.\r\nLater in the forecast period, significant uncertainty in the track\r\nforecast remains, depending on how much the post-tropical cyclone\r\ninteracts with a mid-latitude cutoff low that develops over the\r\nnortheastern United States. The new NHC forecast track has been\r\nshifted slightly to the east of the previous advisory track,\r\nprimarily due to the more eastward initial position determined from\r\nrecent recon fixes, and lies just to the left of the consensus model\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and the ECMWF models\r\nto shift from the current west-northwesterly direction to\r\nsouthwesterly by 18-24 hours at about 5 to 10 kt. SSTs are expected\r\nto be near 30C.  The intensity consensus IVCN again brings Hermine\r\nto hurricane strength prior to landfall and the offical forecast\r\nfollows this guidance, forcing the issuance of a hurricane warning\r\nwith this advisory.  The predicted extratropical transition of the\r\nsystem is based on the global model guidance, which show the cyclone\r\nbecoming embedded within a frontal zone over the eastern United\r\nStates by 72 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 25.8N  87.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 26.9N  86.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 28.7N  85.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 30.7N  83.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 32.8N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 37.0N  76.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 39.0N  74.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  06/0000Z 39.0N  71.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n400 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Hermine\r\nand measured 850-mb flight-level winds of 65 kt, but the SFMR winds\r\nare a little bit lower. These strong winds measured by the hurricane\r\nhunter plane are confined to the eastern half of the circulation. On\r\nthis basis, the initial intensity is kept at 50 kt. The lowest\r\npressure estimated from the plane was 996 mb. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is basically the same as the previous one, and\r\nbrings Hermine to hurricane strength near landfall. This forecast\r\ncontinues to be based primarily on the intensity consensus model\r\nIVCN. Once inland, Hermine should weaken, however, most of the\r\nglobal models expand the area of tropical storm force winds on the\r\neastern semicircle, and so does the official forecast. By the end of\r\nthe forecast period, most of the global models suggest\r\nstrengthening, but by then Hermine is expected to be an\r\nextratropical cyclone located offshore the U.S. east coast.\r\n\r\nHermine moved very little during the past couple of hours, but a\r\nrecent fix from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicates that\r\nthe cyclone has begun to move toward the north-northeast or 020\r\ndegrees at 10 kt. Hermine is already located at the base of a\r\nmid-latitude trough, and this flow pattern should steer the\r\ncyclone on a general north to northeast track with a slight\r\nincrease in forward speed. The NHC forecast follows very closely\r\nthe multi-model consensus TVCN, primarily during the first 2 to 3\r\ndays. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move little\r\nwhile it interacts with an upper-level trough as indicated by the\r\nGFS and the ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 26.4N  86.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 27.8N  85.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 30.0N  84.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 32.0N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 34.0N  78.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 36.5N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  06/0600Z 38.0N  72.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1000 AM CDT THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nHermine is gradually becoming better organized, with convective\r\nbanding developing over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.\r\nUpper-level outflow continues to be restricted to the northwest of\r\nthe storm by a cyclonic shear axis depicted by water vapor\r\nimagery.  The current intensity is set at 55 kt in agreement with\r\nSFMR-observed surface winds from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft.  The intensity forecast continues to show Hermine becoming\r\na hurricane before landfall which is in general agreement with the\r\nnumerical guidance.  The global models show Hermine embedded within\r\na frontal zone by 48 hours, so the forecast shows the system\r\nbecoming extratropical at that time.  There is some concern about\r\nthe evolution of the post-tropical cyclone later in the forecast\r\nperiod, since the shear starts decreasing after 72 hours.  This\r\ncould allow the system to reacquire some tropical characteristics in\r\n4-5 days, although it is not certain how close to the coast the\r\ncyclone will be by that time.\r\n\r\nBased on Hurricane Hunter aircraft fixes and a dropsonde from the\r\nNASA Global Hawk aircraft, the initial motion is estimated to be\r\n030/12 kt.  A mid-tropospheric trough should steer the system\r\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward for the next couple of days.\r\nLater in the forecast period, a developing mid-level cutoff low near\r\nthe northeast United States coast will cause a slowing of the\r\nforward speed as the cyclone interacts with the low.  The official\r\nforecast track is essentially a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions, with the former model showing a track closer to the\r\nnortheast coast and the latter taking the system farther offshore.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track.\r\nHermine is a rather asymmetric storm, with a large extent of\r\ndangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains\r\nwell to the east and southeast of the path of the center.\r\n\r\n2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a\r\nfrontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend.  It\r\nis a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the\r\nmid-Atlantic and northeastern states.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 27.4N  86.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 29.0N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 31.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 33.1N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 38.5N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  06/1200Z 39.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-09-01 17:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1200 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nReports from a hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that\r\nthe extent of tropical-storm-force winds has increased\r\nsignificantly in the eastern semicircle.  This requires an\r\nextension of the tropical storm warning southward along both\r\nFlorida coasts.  This Special Advisory is being issued to modify\r\nthe warnings, and to update the analyzed and forecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. It is important to not focus on the exact forecast track.\r\nHermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a large extent of\r\ndangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains\r\nwell to the east and southeast of the path of the center.\r\n\r\n2. Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a\r\nfrontal system when it reaches the Carolinas over the weekend.  It\r\nis a little early to say what the specific impacts will be for the\r\nmid-Atlantic and northeastern states.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1700Z 27.8N  85.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 29.0N  84.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 31.1N  82.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 33.1N  80.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 35.2N  76.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 38.0N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 38.5N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  06/1200Z 39.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Franklin\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hermine","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n400 PM CDT THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nHermine was recently upgraded to a hurricane based on an\r\nSFMR-observed surface wind from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft.  The initial intensity is set at 65 kt based on that\r\nobservation.  Satellite images show that the cloud pattern continues\r\nto gradually become better organized with more distinct curved bands\r\nof showers and thunderstorms, although the system currently lacks\r\nconcentrated inner-core convection.  Hermine has a little more time\r\nto strengthen, so the official forecast shows a slight additional\r\nincrease in intensity before landfall.  This is consistent with the\r\nlatest LGEM guidance.  Hermine is forecast to become extratropical\r\nat 48 hours when the global models forecast it to become embedded\r\nwithin a frontal zone.  Later in the forecast period,\r\nvertical shear decreases and the cyclone could be situated over\r\nmarginally warm waters.  Therefore there is the possibility of the\r\nsystem regaining some tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, although\r\nthis is speculative at this time.\r\n\r\nAircraft center fixes indicate that the motion remains 030/12 kt.\r\nThe flow on the eastern side of a mid-level trough over the\r\nsoutheastern United States should cause Hermine to move\r\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward with some increase in forward\r\nspeed during the next day so.  By 48 hours, the track guidance\r\nshows the system slowing down as it begins to interact with a\r\nmid-level cutoff vortex over the eastern United States.  In 3 days\r\nor so, the post-tropical cyclone merges with the cutoff low and a\r\nfurther slowing down of the motion is expected.  The official track\r\nforecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. As landfall nears, it is important to not focus on the exact\r\nforecast track.  Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a\r\nlarge extent of dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and\r\nflooding rains well to the east and southeast of the path of the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\n2. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still\r\nproducing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS policy\r\nallows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm\r\nwatches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system\r\ncontinues to pose a significant threat to life and property.\r\nNHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be\r\ninvoked for Hermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone,\r\nNHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning\r\nproducts for as long as the system remains a significant threat to\r\nland.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 28.5N  85.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 30.2N  83.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 32.4N  81.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 34.5N  78.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 36.3N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 38.5N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  06/1800Z 39.5N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hermine","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 01 2016\r\n\r\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicate that Hermine has gradually intensified since the last\r\nforecast advisory.  The plane measured 86-kt flight-level winds\r\nsoutheast of the center at 850 mb with SFMR and dropsonde data\r\nsuggesting winds of at least 65 kt.  Based on these data and a\r\nearlier 983 mb central pressure, the initial intensity is set at 70\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 030/12.  The flow on the eastern side of\r\na mid-level trough over the southeastern United States should cause\r\nHermine to move north-northeastward to northeastward with an\r\nincrease in forward speed during the next 36 hours.  The track\r\nguidance is tightly clustered during this period, and this part of\r\nthe forecast track is an update of the previous track.  At 48 hours\r\nand beyond, Hermine is expected to interact with a baroclinic trough\r\nover the northeastern United States.  The track guidance become\r\nrather divergent during this period, with the GFS and ECMWF models\r\nshowing a looping track close to the coast, while the UKMET and\r\nCanadian models show a slow motion somewhat farther offshore.  The\r\nnew forecast track compromises between these solutions and shows a\r\nslow northeastward motion during this time.  Regardless of the exact\r\ntrack, Hermine should linger for several days near the northeastern\r\nU. S. coast as a vigorous low pressure system.\r\n\r\nA little more strengthening is possible during the last few hours\r\nbefore landfall.  After landfall, Hermine is expected to weaken as\r\nit crosses the southeastern United States, eventually emerging from\r\nthe North Carolina coast as a tropical storm.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to re-intensify as an extratropical low during its\r\ninteraction with the baroclinic trough.  The forecast intensities\r\nhave been raised for this part of the forecast based on global model\r\nforecasts, and it is possible that they are a little conservative.\r\nLater in the forecast period, vertical shear decreases, and the\r\ncyclone could be situated over marginally warm waters.  Therefore\r\nthere is the possibility of the system regaining some tropical\r\ncharacteristics in 4-5 days, although this remains speculative.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. As landfall occurs, it is important to not focus on the exact\r\nforecast track.  Hermine is an extremely asymmetric storm, with a\r\nlarge extent of dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and\r\nflooding rains well to the east and southeast of the path of the\r\ncenter.\r\n\r\n2. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still\r\nproducing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS policy\r\nallows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm\r\nwatches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system\r\ncontinues to pose a significant threat to life and property.\r\nNHC and the NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be\r\ninvoked for Hermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone,\r\nNHC will continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning\r\nproducts for as long as the system remains a significant threat to\r\nland.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 29.7N  84.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 31.5N  82.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 33.6N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 35.6N  75.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 37.0N  73.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 38.0N  72.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 39.0N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/0000Z 39.5N  70.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nHermine made landfall near St. Marks, Florida, around 0530 UTC with\r\n70-kt winds. Since that time radar data and surface observations\r\nindicate that the center has continued to move inland. The radar\r\npresentation has deteriorated, and it is estimated that Hermine\r\nhas weakened to tropical storm status with 60-kt winds. Additional\r\nweakening is anticipated while the cyclone moves farther inland, but\r\nit could reinvigorate as an extratropical cyclone when it moves\r\nover water and interacts with a baroclinic trough in about 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion 025/12 kt. Hermine is\r\nembedded within the southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude\r\ntrough, and this flow pattern should steer the cyclone toward the\r\nnortheast with an increase in forward speed during the next day\r\nor two. Track models are in very good agreement during this\r\nperiod. After that time, when Hermine begins to interact with\r\na baroclinic trough, the cyclone should slow down significantly\r\nand begin to meander. On days 3-5, the track guidance becomes rather\r\ndivergent, decreasing confidence in the forecast.  The NHC\r\nprediction keeps an extratropical cyclone moving little or drifting\r\nnorthward a few hundred miles off the northeastern U.S coast during\r\nthat time. There is a possibility that the system could regain some\r\ntropical characteristics in 4-5 days, but this remains uncertain as\r\nindicated in the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGE:\r\n\r\n1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while\r\nstill producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS\r\npolicy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm\r\nwatches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system\r\ncontinues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and\r\nthe NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked\r\nfor Hermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC\r\nwill continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning\r\nproducts for as long as the system remains a significant threat to\r\nland.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 30.8N  83.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 32.5N  81.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 34.5N  77.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 36.0N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 37.0N  72.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 38.0N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 38.5N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  07/0600Z 39.0N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nHermine is moving over southeastern Georgia and has weakened\r\nsteadily since landfall.  Convective tops have warmed, but several\r\nland stations have shown sustained winds near tropical storm force\r\nnear the center with some gusts close to 50 kt.  Stronger winds are\r\nalso found over the Atlantic coastal waters, with buoy 41008\r\nreporting winds around 40 kt in the last hour.  Based on this, the\r\ninitial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory.  The central\r\npressure, based on surface data, is about 989 mb.  While the center\r\nof Hermine will remain over land for the next 24 hours or so, I\r\ndon't expect the winds over water to decrease much, so the NHC\r\nforecast shows no change during that time.  Strengthening through a\r\ncombination of diabatic and baroclinic processes is shown after the\r\nsystem moves offshore.  The GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET all show Hermine\r\ninteracting with a potent upper-level shortwave trough in 2-3 days,\r\nand the system could re-strengthen to near hurricane force at that\r\ntime.  Slow weakening is expected later in the period, but Hermine\r\nis expected to remain a dangerous cyclone through 5 days.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is based largely on global model guidance, and is\r\na bit higher than the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 040/16.  Hermine should continue\r\nmoving northeastward for the next 36 to 48 hours ahead of an\r\napproaching mid-latitude trough.  After that time, the cyclone\r\nshould turn northward and nearly stall out as it interacts with the\r\nupper-level shortwave off the mid-Atlantic coast.  A slow\r\nnortheastward motion is shown at days 4 and 5, but there is a fair\r\nbit of model spread late in the period and confidence in the details\r\nof the track forecast at those times remains low.\r\n\r\nNote that the NHC forecast shows Hermine as a post-tropical cyclone\r\nin about 48 hours, but model fields do not show it undergoing a\r\nfull extratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a\r\nwarm seclusion structure.  There is a possibility that the system\r\ncould regain some tropical characteristics in 4-5 days, but this\r\nremains uncertain.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches and warnings\r\nhave been expanded northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGE:\r\n\r\n1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while\r\nstill producing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS\r\npolicy allows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm\r\nwatches and warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system\r\ncontinues to pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and\r\nthe NWS Eastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked\r\nfor Hermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC\r\nwill continue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning\r\nproducts for as long as the system remains a significant threat to\r\nland.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 31.9N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 33.5N  79.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 35.4N  76.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 36.7N  73.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 37.5N  72.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 38.1N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 38.8N  71.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  07/1200Z 39.3N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nWhile the cloud pattern of Hermine has become elongated north and\r\neast of the center, and the central convective tops have warmed,\r\nnumerous surface observations of 40-kt winds along the South\r\nCarolina coast support maintaining an initial intensity of 45 kt for\r\nthis advisory.  While the center of Hermine remains over land for\r\nthe next 12 to 18 hours, little change in intensity is expected,\r\nas the strongest winds should remain over the coastal waters of the\r\nCarolinas.  After the center moves offshore, intensification is\r\nexpected through a combination of diabatic and baroclinic processes.\r\nThe global models continue to show Hermine interacting with a potent\r\nupper-level shortwave trough in 2-3 days, and the system is expected\r\nto restrengthen to near hurricane force in 48 to 72 hours.  As the\r\nupper-level forcing moves away, slow weakening is expected later in\r\nthe period.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the tropical\r\ncyclone guidance suite and is based largely on global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 055/17, as Hermine is currently\r\nembedded in deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a positively-\r\ntilted mid-latitude trough.  During the next 36 to 48 hours the\r\ncyclone should gradually slow down and then turn more poleward as\r\nthe shortwave trough amplifies over the central Appalachians and\r\nmid-Atlantic states.  This trough interacts with and superimposes\r\nitself on top of Hermine between 48 and 72 hours.  Not surprisingly,\r\nthere are differences in the details of how the model guidance\r\nhandles the motion of Hermine during this time, with the ECMWF and\r\nECMWF ensemble mean along the western side of the guidance by 72\r\nhours, and the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET farther to the east.  Note that\r\nthe interaction between Hermine and the upper trough could result in\r\nsome looping motions that are not captured by the 12 and 24 hour\r\nspacing of the official NHC forecast points.  Late in the forecast\r\nperiod, a northeastward motion is expected as the upper trough\r\nslides eastward.  Spread continues in the guidance at those times\r\nas well, with the HWRF joining the ECMWF on the left side of the\r\nguidance envelope at those times.  Overall, the new NHC forecast has\r\nbeen adjusted a bit to the left and is close to the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope.  This track is near the GEFS ensemble mean and a\r\nblend of the GFS and ECMWF.  Needless to say, small changes in the\r\neventual track of Hermine could result in large changes in impacts\r\nalong the mid-Atlantic coast.\r\n\r\nThe NHC forecast shows Hermine as a post-tropical cyclone in 36\r\nhours, but model fields do not show it undergoing a full\r\nextratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a warm\r\nseclusion structure with a strong low-level vortex underneath an\r\nupper-level low.  There is a possibility that the system could\r\nregain some tropical characteristics in 3-5 days, but this remains\r\nuncertain.  It is important to remind users that Hermine is expected\r\nto remain a dangerous cyclone through the forecast period regardless\r\nof the details of its structure.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, tropical storm warnings have been\r\nexpanded northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast to Sandy Hook,\r\nNew Jersey.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGE:\r\n\r\n1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still\r\nproducing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS policy\r\nallows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches\r\nand warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues\r\nto pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS\r\nEastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for\r\nHermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products\r\nfor as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 33.0N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 34.5N  77.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 36.1N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 37.1N  73.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 37.8N  72.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 38.4N  72.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 39.7N  71.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  07/1800Z 40.5N  69.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 02 2016\r\n\r\nRadar imagery and surface observations indicate that the\r\ncirculation of Hermine has become elongated from east-northeast to\r\nwest-southwest over the past few hours.  This is likely in response\r\nto the tropical cyclone encroaching on a developing frontal\r\nboundary that extends from eastern North Carolina eastward into the\r\nAtlantic.  However, buoy reports from the Atlantic southeast of the\r\ncenter remain in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial intensity\r\nremains 45 kt.\r\n\r\nDuring the forecast period, Hermine is expected to undergo a complex\r\ninteraction with a mid- to upper-level baroclinic trough that is\r\ndeveloping over the eastern United States.  During the first 36-48\r\nhours, the cyclone is likely to start extratropical transition as it\r\ntries to merge with the frontal boundary.  From 48-96 hours, the\r\ndynamical models forecast the upper trough to cut off directly over\r\nthe surface cyclone, and as this happens they forecast the surface\r\ncyclone to acquire a structure that resembles a tropical cyclone\r\nwith the strongest winds close to the center.  This suggests the\r\npossibility that Hermine could regain some tropical cyclone\r\ncharacteristics even though it would be under the upper-level low.\r\nFor all of this complexity, the dynamical guidance forecast Hermine\r\nto strengthen during this evolution regardless of its final\r\nstructure, so the new intensity forecast is an update of the\r\nprevious forecast.  Given the uncertainty in the structure and\r\nevolution, the forecast keeps the cyclone as post-tropical after 24\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 055/19 as Hermine is now embedded in\r\ndeep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of the above mentioned\r\nbaroclinic trough.  During the next 24-36 hours, the cyclone should\r\ndecelerate and gradually turn more toward the north.  The dynamical\r\nmodels agree that the surface center should make at least a partial\r\ncyclonic loop from 48-96 hours as it moves under the upper-level\r\nlow.  After 96 hours, there is spread in the guidance, as the GFS\r\nshows a very slow motion while the ECMWF/CMC/UKMET move the system\r\nsomewhat faster toward the east-northeast.  The new forecast track\r\nshows a little more bend back toward the west than the previous\r\ntrack, then it is a little slower to move the system to the\r\neast-northeast later in the period.  It should be noted that the\r\nGFS and ECMWF both bring the center of Hermine closer to the coast\r\nthan the current forecast, and if this trend continues it may\r\nrequire some adjustment to the track in later advisories.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still\r\nproducing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS policy\r\nallows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches\r\nand warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues\r\nto pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS\r\nEastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for\r\nHermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products\r\nfor as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.\r\n\r\n2. There is considerable uncertainty as to how many of the\r\ncharacteristics of a tropical cyclone Hermine will have while it is\r\noff of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England States.\r\nRegardless of its structure, Hermine is expected to be a vigorous\r\nstorm with a large wind field that will cause wind, storm surge and\r\nsurf hazards along the coast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 34.1N  78.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 35.5N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 36.8N  73.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 37.8N  72.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 38.4N  72.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 38.5N  73.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 39.5N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  08/0000Z 40.5N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hermine","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite, radar and surface observations continue to show that the\r\ncirculation of Hermine is elongated with most of the convection well\r\nremoved from the area of lowest pressure. It appears that Hermine\r\nhas already begun the process of extratropical transition. Based on\r\nearlier satellite-derived winds, the initial intensity remains 50\r\nkt. These winds are occurring over water well removed from the\r\ncenter in the southeast quadrant.\r\n\r\nAs indicated in the previous NHC discussion, during the next day or\r\ntwo, Hermine is expected to undergo a complex interaction with a\r\nmid- to upper-level baroclinic trough that is developing over the\r\neastern United States. After that time, the dynamical models\r\nforecast the upper trough to cut off directly over the surface\r\ncyclone, and the surface cyclone could regain some tropical cyclone\r\ncharacteristics, even though it would be under the upper-level low.\r\nBy then, the strongest winds are expected to be closer to the\r\ncenter. Nevertheless, the dynamical guidance forecasts Hermine to\r\nstrengthen during this evolution regardless of its final structure,\r\nand the NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one.\r\nGiven the uncertainty in the structure and evolution, the forecast\r\nkeeps the cyclone as post-tropical after 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is difficult to estimate given that Hermine's\r\ncirculation is elongated, but cyclone appears to be moving toward\r\nthe east-northeast or 060 degrees at 18 kt. The cyclone is forecast\r\nto turn more toward the northeast in about 24 hours, and then turn\r\nnorthward with a significant decrease in forward speed as\r\ninteracts with the upper-level trough, and the steering currents\r\nweaken. After day 4, the cyclone should then move eastward with the\r\nmid-latitude flow. The track forecast is a blend between the\r\nprevious NHC one and the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. Hermine is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone while still\r\nproducing hazardous winds and storm surge over land.  NWS policy\r\nallows NHC to write advisories on and issue tropical storm watches\r\nand warnings for post-tropical cyclones, when the system continues\r\nto pose a significant threat to life and property. NHC and the NWS\r\nEastern Region have decided that this option will be invoked for\r\nHermine.  After Hermine becomes a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products\r\nfor as long as the system remains a significant threat to land.\r\n\r\n2. There is still considerable uncertainty as to how many of the\r\ncharacteristics of a tropical cyclone Hermine will have while it is\r\noff of the coast of the Mid-Atlantic and New England States.\r\nRegardless of its structure, Hermine is expected to be a vigorous\r\nstorm with a large wind field that will cause wind, storm surge and\r\nsurf hazards along the coast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 35.4N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...ON THE COAST\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 36.5N  74.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 37.3N  72.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 38.0N  72.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 38.5N  72.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 39.0N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 39.5N  71.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  08/0600Z 40.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Hermine has become a post-tropical\r\ncyclone, with the coldest convective tops now located more than 200\r\nn mi northeast of the exposed center.  Despite this change in\r\nstructure, surface data from the Outer Banks indicate that some\r\nstrong winds persist near the center, and the initial intensity is\r\nset to 55 kt for this advisory.  During the next 48 to 72 hours,\r\nHermine will interact with a strong mid-latitude shortwave trough\r\nand all of the global models show the system re-intensifying during\r\nthat time and a redevelopment of a stronger inner core, albeit one\r\nsituated underneath an upper-level low. Regardless of its final\r\nstructure, Hermine is expected to remain a dangerous cyclone through\r\nthe 5 day period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 060/14.  Hermine\r\nshould continue moving northeastward in deep-layer southwesterly\r\nflow through 24 hours and then meander generally northward from 36\r\nto 72 hours while the cyclone deepens beneath the upper-level low.\r\nLate in the period, the guidance is in generally good agreement\r\nshowing a steadier motion toward the northeast, although there is\r\nsignificant spread.  The new NHC forecast is generally close to the\r\nprevious one and is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF through 3\r\ndays, and then favors the guidance that is a bit faster and farther\r\nnorth at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will\r\nresult in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the\r\nmid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the\r\nholiday weekend.\r\n\r\n2. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as\r\nlong as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.\r\n\r\n3. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding\r\nGraphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical\r\ncyclone.  The wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by\r\nthe P-surge model and as a result, recent Flooding Graphics have\r\nunderstated the inundation risk from the Carolinas northward.  NHC\r\nwill be discontinuing runs of the P-surge model for Hermine with\r\nthis advisory.  The NWS is attempting to substitute the GFS ensemble\r\nsystem for P-surge for the next issuance of the Potential Storm\r\nSurge Flooding Graphic, to provide a more realistic depiction of the\r\nthreat.  If this effort is unsuccessful, issuance of the Potential\r\nStorm Surge Flooding Graphic for Hermine will also be discontinued.\r\n\r\n4. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic does account for\r\nthe current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately\r\nidentifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.\r\nThis graphic will continue to be produced for Hermine.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 36.1N  75.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 37.1N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 37.9N  71.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 38.4N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 38.7N  71.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 39.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 40.4N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  08/1200Z 41.0N  67.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016\r\n\r\nHermine has the look of an extratropical cyclone this afternoon,\r\nwith most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the\r\ncenter and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern\r\nsemicircle.  This descending air resulted in a band of very strong\r\nwinds over portions of the Outer Banks of North Carolina today, and\r\nthose winds along with SFMR data from the aircraft support an\r\ninitial intensity of 60 kt for this advisory.  Hermine has an\r\nexpansive wind field, with 34-kt winds extending about 200 miles\r\nfrom the center.  Hermine is still expected to interact with a\r\nshortwave trough in the next couple of days over warm SSTs, which\r\nshould result in some intensification, although the global models\r\nare a little less bullish this cycle.  The NHC forecast continues to\r\nshow Hermine at or near hurricane intensity for the next 72 hours,\r\nwith slow weakening expected thereafter.\r\n\r\nAfter moving due eastward earlier today, the initial motion is now\r\nback toward the east-northeast at around 10 kt.  Hermine should turn\r\nnorthward and slow to a crawl as it merges with the upper-level\r\ntrough, and the NHC track shows only 2-3 kt of forward speed from 24\r\nthrough 96 hours.  The spread in the track model guidance has\r\nincreased this cycle, with the UKMET and GFS now showing more of a\r\nwestward motion and are slower to begin moving Hermine\r\nnortheastward.  The ECMWF has trended eastward and is much faster,\r\ntaking Hermine south of Cape Cod in about 4 days, while the GFS and\r\nUKMET are still centered offshore of New Jersey at that time. Given\r\nthe spread, and the possibility of looping motions during the\r\ninteraction with the upper trough, confidence in the details of the\r\ntrack forecast remains quite low.  The new NHC track tries to\r\nmaintain some continuity with the last one, but lies to the right of\r\nthe previous one in the first 12-24 hours due to the more easterly\r\nmotion of Hermine today.  The NHC forecast is close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus through 72 hours.  After that time, the NHC\r\ntrack is faster than the new consensus but slower than the previous\r\nforecast, reflecting the increasing spread at those times and low\r\nconfidence in any particular solution.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will\r\nresult in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the\r\nmid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the\r\nholiday weekend and into midweek.\r\n\r\n2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in\r\nlarge differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during\r\nthe next several days.  In addition, there could be multiple\r\noccurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within\r\nthe warning area during this time.\r\n\r\n3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as\r\nlong as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.\r\n\r\n4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding\r\nGraphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone.\r\nThe wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge\r\nmodel and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am\r\nEDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas\r\nnorthward.  The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of\r\nP-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding\r\nGraphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat.\r\n\r\n5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for\r\nthe current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately\r\nidentifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.\r\nThis graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 36.2N  73.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 36.8N  72.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 37.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 37.7N  71.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 38.0N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 38.8N  71.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  08/1800Z 41.0N  68.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 03 2016\r\n\r\nHermine has changed little in structure since the last advisory,\r\nwith most of the deep convection situated well northeast of the\r\ncenter and dry, subsiding air wrapping around the southern\r\nsemicircle.  Earlier data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft showed that the central pressure had risen to 998\r\nmb, and that 55-60 kt surface winds were present about 70 n mi\r\nnorthwest of the center.  Based on this, the initial intensity\r\nremains 60 kt.\r\n\r\nHermine continues to move east-northeastward with the initial\r\nmotion of 075/11.  During the next 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough currently moving through the northeastern United States will\r\nmove close to, and then over the top of, the post-tropical cyclone.\r\nDuring this evolution, Hermine is expected to move slowly northward\r\nand then northwestward as it makes at least a partial cyclonic loop.\r\nWhile the track guidance is in fair agreement for the first 48-72\r\nhours, there remains significant spread later in the period on how\r\nfast the cyclone will move out to sea after it merges with the\r\ntrough.  The UKMET is very slow to move the system out, while the\r\nECMWF is much faster.  The GFS is between these extremes, and the\r\ncurrent run shows a little faster motion than the previous run.\r\nThe new forecast track is similar to the previous forecast through\r\n72 hours, and then is somewhat faster in moving the system to the\r\neast-northeast.  Overall, there remains low confidence in any\r\nparticular model solution, and it should be noted that the GFS and\r\nUKMET both bring the center closer to land than the official\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is likely tonight.  On Sunday and Monday,\r\nthe interaction with the upper-level trough is expected to provide\r\nmore favorable conditions for strengthening while the system is\r\nover sea surface temperatures of 28C or warmer, and the dynamical\r\nmodels all show some deepening during this period. Based on this,\r\nthe intensity forecast calls for Hermine to become a hurricane-force\r\nlow.  The guidance is in good agreement that the system should\r\nslowly weaken after 48 hours, and this is indicated in the forecast\r\nas well.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will\r\nresult in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the\r\nmid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the\r\nholiday weekend and into midweek.\r\n\r\n2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in\r\nlarge differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during\r\nthe next several days.  In addition, there could be multiple\r\noccurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within\r\nthe warning area during this time.\r\n\r\n3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as\r\nlong as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.\r\n\r\n4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding\r\nGraphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone.\r\nThe wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge\r\nmodel and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am\r\nEDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas\r\nnorthward.  The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of\r\nP-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding\r\nGraphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat.\r\n\r\n5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for\r\nthe current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately\r\nidentifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.\r\nThis graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 36.5N  72.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 37.1N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 37.6N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 37.9N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 38.3N  71.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 39.0N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 40.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  09/0000Z 41.0N  66.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe overall structure of Hermine has changed little during the past\r\n6 hours. A ring of shallow convection has developed within 60-100\r\nn mi northwest through northeast of the center, possibly due to that\r\nportion of the circulation passing over the Gulf Stream, where water\r\ntemperatures are 29-30C. An earlier ASCAT-B pass indicated that\r\nwinds had decreased to 50-55 kt, and recent data from an Air Force\r\nReserve reconnaissance aircraft confirms that Hermine has peak\r\nwinds of 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 065/10 kt. Hermine is expected to\r\nmove slowly northward and perhaps erratically during the next 36\r\nhours as the post-tropical cyclone begins to interact with an\r\napproaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough that is\r\ngradually becoming more negatively tilted based on water vapor\r\nimagery. By 36-48 hours, Hermine is expected to become vertically\r\nstacked beneath a cut-off low, which could result in the cyclone\r\nbriefly stalling south of southern New England before lifting out to\r\nthe northeast by 72 hours. The models are in fairly good agreement\r\non this developing track scenario through about 36 hours, but then\r\ndiverge significantly after that with the UKMET model turning\r\nHermine farther west closer to the New Jersey coast while the ECMWF\r\nlifts out Hermine more quickly. The GFS solution lies between these\r\ntwo extremes, and the new forecast track closely follows that model.\r\nHowever, there remains low confidence in any particular model.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is likely today. However, by late tonight\r\nand on Monday, the models indicate that at least 6 deg C of cooling\r\nin the mid-/upper-levels will occur when Hermine's low-level\r\ncirculation moves underneath the cut-off low. The combination of the\r\nmuch cooler air aloft over SSTs of at least 27-28C should generate\r\nstrong instability and some inner-core convection, possibly\r\nresulting in a Hermine making the transition to a subtropical\r\ncyclone and strengthening back to hurricane force. The guidance is\r\nin good agreement that the system should slowly weaken after 48\r\nhours when the system will be moving over much cooler water north\r\nof the Gulf Stream. The intensity forecast closely follows a blend\r\nof the GFS-ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1. The slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will\r\nresult in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the\r\nmid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the\r\nholiday weekend and into midweek.\r\n\r\n2. Small changes in the meandering track of Hermine could result in\r\nlarge differences in the impacts along the mid-Atlantic coast during\r\nthe next several days.  In addition, there could be multiple\r\noccurrences of tropical storm conditions in some locations within\r\nthe warning area during this time.\r\n\r\n3. Although Hermine has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products as\r\nlong as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.\r\n\r\n4. P-surge, the model that drives the Potential Storm Surge Flooding\r\nGraphic, is designed for a wind field typical of a tropical cyclone.\r\nThe wind field of Hermine is very poorly represented by the P-surge\r\nmodel and as a result, Flooding Graphics prior to today's 11 am\r\nEDT advisory understated the inundation risk from the Carolinas\r\nnorthward.  The NWS is using the GFS ensemble system instead of\r\nP-surge for ongoing issuances of the Potential Storm Surge Flooding\r\nGraphic to provide a more realistic depiction of the threat.\r\n\r\n5. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic accounts for\r\nthe current wind structure of Hermine, and therefore accurately\r\nidentifies those areas at risk for life-threatening storm surge.\r\nThis graphic will also continue to be produced for Hermine.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 36.8N  70.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 37.2N  70.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 37.7N  70.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 38.0N  71.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 38.5N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 39.2N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 40.3N  68.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  09/0600Z 41.5N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 04 2016\r\n\r\nHermine continues to have the structure of a post-tropical cyclone,\r\nwith practically all of the deep convection well removed to the\r\nnorth-northeast of the center.  An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft\r\nmeasured peak surface winds near 60 kt, and that value is used for\r\nthe advisory intensity.  Since the cyclone is over warm\r\nwaters and the vertical shear may decrease somewhat during the next\r\ncouple of days, some partial transition back to a tropical cyclone\r\nis possible.  However, this is not explicitly indicated in the\r\nofficial forecast.  In any event, the intensity of the system\r\nshould be at or near hurricane force over the next 48 hours or so.\r\n\r\nBased on center fixes from the aircraft, the initial motion is\r\n060/9 kt.  A mid-tropospheric short wave trough will approach\r\nHermine within the next day or so, and the global models forecast\r\nthis vorticity maximum to merge with Hermine.  This interaction\r\nis expected to cause the post-tropical cyclone to move\r\nnortheastward, then northward, and then north-northwestward during\r\nthe next 36 hours or so.  Since the center has already moved a\r\nlittle to the east of the previous track, the official forecast has\r\nbeen adjusted eastward.  Later in the forecast period, the system\r\nshould move east-northeastward, and away from the northeastern\r\nUnited States.  The official track forecast is somewhat to the west\r\nof the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe slow motion and large wind field associated with Hermine will\r\nresult in a long duration of hazardous conditions along much of the\r\nmid-Atlantic coast extending into southern New England through the\r\nholiday weekend and into midweek.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 37.2N  69.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 37.6N  69.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 38.3N  69.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 38.7N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 39.0N  70.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 40.0N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 41.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  09/1200Z 42.0N  60.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images continue to show that practically all of the deep\r\nconvection continues to occur well to the north and northeast of\r\nthe low-level center of the cyclone.  This indicates that\r\nHermine remains a post-tropical cyclone.  The current intensity\r\nestimate remains 60 kt based on continuity from the previous\r\naircraft data.  Another Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled\r\nto investigate the system in a few hours.  The intensity trends\r\nshown by the global models suggest that a weakening trend should\r\nbegin in 24 hours or so, and this is reflected in the latest\r\nofficial forecast.\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images show that the center has continued to\r\ntrack farther east than previous estimates, and the motion is a\r\nrather uncertain 070/4 kt.  A shortwave trough is approaching\r\nHermine from the west, and the associated vorticity is predicted to\r\nmove just to the south of the post-tropical cyclone within the next\r\nday or so.  This should cause Hermine to turn toward the north and\r\nnorthwest while moving rather slowly over the next 24-48 hours.\r\nAfter that time, Hermine should begin to move east-northeastward\r\nwithin the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions,  with the former model much farther east than the latter\r\none.  The forecast for Hermine has been coordinated with the NOAA\r\nOcean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nAlthough the NHC forecast track has been shifted eastward today,\r\nthere is still a threat of tropical storm conditions, coastal\r\nflooding and large waves along portions of the mid-Atlantic and\r\nnortheastern United States coast during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 37.2N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 37.9N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 38.5N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 39.1N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 39.6N  70.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 40.2N  69.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 41.5N  65.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  09/1800Z 43.5N  61.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016\r\n\r\nHermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with all of the deep\r\nconvection located well north of the center.  Deep convection\r\nassociated with the system has increased over the northern and\r\nnorthwestern portions of the circulation this evening, but it does\r\nnot appear that there has been an increase in wind speed.  The\r\ninitial intensity is set at 60 kt, which is in agreement with\r\nrecent SFMR wind observations from an Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft.  The aircraft has also recently reported a\r\nminimum pressure of 997 mb.  Little change in strength is expected\r\novernight, but the global models indicate that weakening should\r\nbegin by late Monday.  Continued weakening is expected during the\r\nremainder of the forecast period, and both the ECMWF and GFS\r\ndissipate the cyclone by day 5, and this is now reflected in the\r\nofficial forecast.\r\n\r\nHermine has continued to move eastward since the previous advisory,\r\nbut the most recent fix from the aircraft suggests that the eastward\r\nmotion may be ending.  A shortwave trough moving off the coast\r\nof North Carolina should cause Hermine to turn northwestward later\r\ntonight, then a slow north-northwestward or northward motion should\r\ncontinue into Tuesday.  After that time, the cyclone should turn\r\nnortheastward around the western portion of the mid- to upper-level\r\nridge over the west-central Atlantic.  The NHC forecast track is\r\nonce again a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models, but has been\r\nadjusted slightly eastward based on the more eastward initial\r\nposition.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the\r\nreconnaissance aircraft and a recent ASCAT overpass.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 37.2N  68.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 37.9N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 38.7N  69.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 39.2N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 39.8N  69.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 40.6N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 42.5N  63.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  10/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nHermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with a cloud pattern more\r\nreminiscent of an extratropical low. However, moderate convection\r\nhas been developing just north of the surface center in the northern\r\nsemicircle during the past few hours within a region of increasing\r\nupper-level diffluence. Data from an earlier reconnaissance mission\r\nalong with recent scatterometer data suggest that the intensity\r\nremains unchanged at 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a slow northward drift 010/03 kt. Water vapor\r\nimagery indicates that an upper-level low has developed east of the\r\nDelMarVa peninsula and is dropping to the south of Hermine's surface\r\ncenter. The latest model guidance is forecasting the surface and\r\nmid- to upper-level lows to rotate counterclockwise around each\r\nother for the next 24-36 hours before becoming vertically stacked by\r\n36-48 hours. This cyclonic interaction has resulted in a significant\r\nwestward shift in the global model tracks, especially by the UKMET\r\nand ECMWF models. As a result, the official forecast has been\r\nshifted a little to the west of the previous advisory track, but\r\nlies along the extreme eastern side of the guidance envelope in the\r\nevent that the models shift back to the east since such complex\r\ninteractions are difficult to forecast from cycle to cycle.\r\n\r\nThe upper-level flow across Hermine is forecast by all of the global\r\nmodels to continue to become more difluent during the next 24 hours,\r\nwhich should aid in the development of deep convection near the\r\nlow-level center. By 36-48 hours, the deep-layer vertical is\r\nexpected to decrease from the current 45 kt to less than 10 kt, a\r\npattern that is usually conducive for intensification. However,\r\nthose favorable upper-level conditions will be negated by much\r\ncooler sea-surface temperatures of 23-25 deg C when Hermine will be\r\nnorth of the Gulf Stream at that time. The global models are in very\r\nagreement on both Hermine weakening and the 34-kt wind field\r\nsteadily shrinking by 24 hours and beyond. Further weakening is\r\nexpected through day 4, and both the ECMWF and GFS show Hermine\r\ndissipating by day 5 over the cold waters of the North Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe initial 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from\r\nthe reconnaissance aircraft and an earlier ASCAT overpass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 37.7N  68.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 38.0N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 38.6N  70.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 39.0N  70.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 39.7N  70.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 40.7N  67.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 43.0N  62.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nCorrected for initial motion in second paragraph\r\n\r\nHermine continues to exhibit a non-tropical cloud pattern with a\r\nbroad curved band of showers to the north of the center.\r\nHigh-resolution visible images show multiple low-level swirls\r\nrotating around the broad center of the cyclone.  An Air Force\r\nreconnaissance plane found highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface\r\nwinds of 52 kt, and highest 850 mb flight-level winds were 69 kt,\r\nboth north of the center.  The initial intensity estimate remains 60\r\nkt.  Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the\r\nsystem should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this\r\nshould result in a weakening trend.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis consistent with the trend depicted by the global models.  These\r\nmodels, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up\r\nto a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also\r\nreflected in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center\r\nposition from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of\r\n325/5 kt, which is rather uncertain.  Hermine is in a weak steering\r\nenvironment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone\r\nshould induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward\r\nspeed during the next 24 hours or so.  As this ridge breaks down by\r\nTuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the\r\nforecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine\r\noff to the east-northeast and northeast.  The track forecast has\r\nbeen shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to\r\nthe east of the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 38.8N  68.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 39.2N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 39.7N  70.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 40.0N  70.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 40.5N  70.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 41.0N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 44.5N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Hermine remains non-tropical, with\r\na rather linear band of deep convection situated north and northwest\r\nof the estimated center.  There continues to be multiple low-level\r\nswirls over the inner part of the circulation.  Overall, the\r\nappearance of the system is gradually losing organization.  The\r\nadvisory intensity remains at 60 kt based on earlier reconnaissance\r\ndata and a ship report from this afternoon.  The system is forecast\r\nto move over SSTs of 23 to 24 deg C on Tuesday and these cooler\r\nwaters should cause weakening.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the model consensus and, although this guidance may not be\r\nvery valid for a post-tropical cyclone, the NHC forecast is also\r\nconsistent with the trends shown by the global models.  Some of\r\nthese models, such as the ECMWF suggest that the cyclone could\r\ndissipate within 72 hours.\r\n\r\nEarlier aircraft center fixes and a more recent satellite-derived\r\nfix result in a motion estimate of 300/6 kt.  A weak mid-level\r\nridge to the north of Hermine should maintain the\r\nwest-northwestward motion overnight.  After that, the ridge breaks\r\ndown and the cyclone is expected to become trapped in a region of\r\nweak steering currents.  This should result in a slow and erratic\r\nmotion through 48 hours.  By the end of the forecast period, if the\r\ncyclone survives, a faster east-northeastward motion could occur\r\ndue to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is a little to the west of the previous one but\r\ngenerally to the right of the latest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 39.3N  69.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 39.7N  70.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 39.9N  71.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 40.0N  71.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 40.3N  71.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 42.0N  69.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  09/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":35,"Date":"2016-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nHermine is a large, occluded low that is beginning - finally - to\r\nspin down some.  While there is some convection associated with the\r\ncyclone, it is not deep and is displaced well southwest of the\r\ncenter.  Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate\r\nthat the peak winds have dropped to about 55 kt.  Given the lack of\r\ndeep convection and little baroclinic forcing, continued weakening\r\nand shrinking of the cyclone's wind field is anticipated.  It is\r\nforecast that Hermine will dissipate in about three days.  The NHC\r\nintensity prediction is similar to the previous advisory and is\r\nbased upon the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET global models.\r\n\r\nHermine is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt, primarily\r\ndue to the steering induced by an upper- to mid-level cutoff low to\r\nits south. As Hermine merges with this low in the next day, the\r\ncyclone's motion will slow to a crawl.  In about two days, an\r\nupstream shortwave trough in the westerlies will cause Hermine to\r\nbegin a northeastward motion until dissipation.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is shifted slightly southwestward, between that from the\r\nprevious advisory and the global model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe Air Force reconnaissance data as well as the Buzzards Bay and\r\nMontauk Point buoys have been crucial for determining the\r\ntropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii, which have been\r\ncontracted slightly.  The wind radii forecast is based upon the\r\nRVCN wind radii consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 39.6N  70.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 39.7N  71.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 39.7N  71.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 39.8N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 40.4N  71.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea/Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":36,"Date":"2016-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016\r\n\r\nHermine remains a post-tropical low pressure system with a few\r\nsmall patches of convection located to the south and west of the\r\ncenter. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory,\r\nbased on data collected by the Air Force Reserve hurricane hunters\r\nearlier this morning. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to\r\ngradually weaken during the next couple of days due to the lack of\r\nbaroclinic forcing and cool sea-surface temperatures. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is largely based on guidance from the global\r\nmodels, and shows dissipation by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is now moving westward, closer to the coastline, at\r\nabout 7 kt.  The system is primarily being steered by a mid- to\r\nupper-level low to its south.  Hermine is expected to slow down\r\nlater today, and it will likely stall tonight as it merges with the\r\nupper low. By Wednesday, a turn to the north and then northeast is\r\npredicted as a shortwave trough approaches the system. The NHC track\r\nforecast has been adjusted a little to the west this cycle to come\r\ninto better agreement with the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nThe 34- and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted inward based on\r\ndata from the Air Force reconnaissance plane, an ASCAT overpass, and\r\nsurface observations.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 39.6N  71.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 39.5N  72.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 39.6N  72.6W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 39.8N  72.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 40.3N  72.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":37,"Date":"2016-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the structure of Hermine since the\r\nlast advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system\r\nwith a few small patches of convection located to the south and west\r\nof the center.  Buoy data suggests the circulation is slowly\r\ndecaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 50\r\nkt.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken\r\nduring the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing\r\nand cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the\r\nnew intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm\r\nforce by 48 hours in agreement with the global models.  After that\r\ntime, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system\r\nmoving eastward across the New England States.\r\n\r\nHermine has slowed its forward motion, which is now 270/3.  A slow\r\nand erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is likely\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  After that, the cyclone should move\r\nnortheastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system.\r\nThe new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track\r\nafter 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm warning for Long island may be discontinued\r\nlater today if the winds north of the center continue to decrease.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 39.5N  71.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 39.3N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 39.4N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 39.9N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 40.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Hermine","Adv":38,"Date":"2016-09-06 18:00:00","Key":"AL092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016\r\n200 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2016\r\n\r\nBased on satellite imagery and surface observations, the risk of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds reaching the coastline appears now to be\r\nminimal.  This special advisory is being issued to discontinue the\r\nremaining coastal tropical storm warnings and to terminate National\r\nHurricane Center advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine.\r\n\r\nThere has again been little change in the structure of Hermine since\r\nthe last advisory, as it remains a post-tropical low pressure system\r\nwith a few small patches of convection located to the south and west\r\nof the center.  Buoy data suggests the circulation is still slowly\r\ndecaying, so the initial intensity is now a somewhat uncertain 45\r\nkt.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to continue to weaken\r\nduring the next couple of days due to the lack of baroclinic forcing\r\nand cool sea-surface temperatures along the forecast track, and the\r\nnew intensity forecast has the winds decreasing below tropical storm\r\nforce by 48 hours in agreement with the global models.  After that\r\ntime, the system is expected to be absorbed by a new frontal system\r\nmoving eastward across the New England States.\r\n\r\nAfter a brief slowing this morning, the center has moved a little\r\nfaster and the initial motion is now 265/6.  Other than that, the\r\ntrack forecast reasoning is unchanged since the last advisory.  A\r\nslow and erratic motion, possibly including a cusp or a loop, is\r\nlikely during the next 24 hours.  After that, the cyclone should\r\nmove northeastward in advance of the above-mentioned frontal system.\r\nThe new forecast track is a little faster than the previous track\r\nafter 24 hours, and it is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFor future information on Hermine, please see products issued by\r\nyour local NWS Forecast Office.  Additional information can be found\r\nin High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the\r\nWeb at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1800Z 39.4N  72.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 39.3N  72.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 39.4N  72.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 39.9N  72.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 40.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 12 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images and a recent ASCAT overpass show\r\nthat the low pressure system over the central Atlantic has now\r\nacquired a well-defined low-level circulation.  The scatterometer\r\ndata showed tropical-storm-force winds over the northern semicircle\r\nof the circulation, and the advisory intensity is set to 35 kt.\r\nIan is not a well organized storm, with the low-level center\r\nexposed and displaced about 70 n mi to the southwest of the main\r\narea of deep convection.  This is due to the effect of about 20 kt\r\nof vertical shear over the system, and this strong shear is\r\npredicted to persist for at least the next day or so.  In 36 to 48\r\nhours, the shear is forecast to relax somewhat, so some slow\r\nintensification could begin by tomorrow night.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is a little above the model consensus.  In 120\r\nhours, or sooner, the system should become embedded within a\r\nfrontal zone over north Atlantic and lose tropical characteristics.\r\n\r\nIan is moving northwestward, with initial motion estimated to be\r\nabout 320/11 kt.  The storm is currently moving through a break in\r\nthe subtropical ridge.  In the next few days, a 500 mb trough\r\napproaching from the west should cause Ian to turn northward and\r\nthen north-northeastward while accelerating.  The official forecast\r\ntrack leans toward the ECMWF solution, but is also not far from the\r\nlatest dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 21.8N  50.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 23.4N  51.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 25.4N  52.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 27.3N  53.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 29.7N  54.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 34.5N  53.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 42.5N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 53.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016\r\n\r\nIan remains poorly organized, with the bulk of the deep convection\r\ndisplaced well to the northeast of the low-level center due to\r\nstrong vertical shear.  The advisory intensity estimate remains at\r\n35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  The global\r\nmodels suggest that some decrease in shear will occur in 36 to 48\r\nhours, when the system moves on the northeast side of a partially\r\ncut off upper-level cyclone.  This could permit a little\r\nstrengthening to commence around that time, as reflected in the\r\nofficial forecast. This is slightly above the latest numerical model\r\nintensity consensus.  By the end of the forecast period, or sooner,\r\nIan should become embedded in a frontal zone over the north Atlantic\r\nand be transformed into an extratropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nIan has turned to the right, and the initial motion estimate is now\r\nabout 330/11 kt.  The storm continues to move through a break in\r\nthe subtropical ridge, and in a few days the flow ahead of a\r\nmid-tropospheric trough should cause Ian to accelerate\r\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward.  The official forecast lies\r\nbetween the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, and is also close to\r\nthe dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 22.9N  50.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 24.3N  51.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 26.2N  52.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 28.5N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 30.7N  54.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 35.7N  52.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 45.0N  42.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 54.5N  29.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 12 2016\r\n\r\nIan remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the strongest\r\nconvection displaced to the northeast and east of the center.\r\nHowever, moderate convection has recently developed over and just\r\nnorth of the center due to the vertical wind shear's backing\r\nfrom a southwesterly to southerly direction. Data from a recent\r\npartial ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the 34-kt wind field has\r\nexpanded to at least 200 nmi in the northeastern quadrant, and that\r\npeak winds have also increased to more than 35 kt. Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and T2.5/35 kt from\r\nSAB, and an average of these values yields an advisory intensity of\r\n40 kt.\r\n\r\nIan has maintained a steady motion of 330/11 kt. The latest NHC\r\nmodel guidance is in excellent agreement on the storm continuing to\r\nmove north-northwestward through a break in the Bermuda-Azores High\r\nfor the next 24 hours, followed by a turn to the north at 36-48\r\nhours. After that, Ian is expected to gradually accelerate as the\r\ncyclone gets captured by a strong mid-latitude shortwave trough. The\r\nnew official forecast track is essentially just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track and lies close to the GFS-ECMWF model\r\nconsensus, and the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe vertical shear is forecast to decrease to 15-20 kt in 36 to 48\r\nhours when an upper-level low, currently located about 400 nmi\r\nnorthwest of the cyclone, is forecast by the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF\r\nmodels to move over and become colocated with Ian's low-level\r\ncenter. The combination of decreasing vertical wind shear and some\r\ninfusion of baroclinic energy associated with this complex\r\ninteraction is expected to produce at least some slight\r\nstrengthening by days 2-3. Around 120 hours, Ian is forecast to\r\ninteract with a frontal zone over the north Atlantic and be\r\ntransformed into an extratropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 23.5N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 24.9N  52.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 26.9N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 29.4N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 31.8N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 38.0N  49.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 48.0N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 56.5N  25.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nIan is a strongly sheared tropical storm.  The low-level center of\r\nthe cyclone is completely exposed with the main area of deep\r\nconvection located about 120 n mi northeast of the center.  This\r\nasymmetric cloud pattern is the result of about 30 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear.  The initial intensity is held\r\nat 40 kt for this advisory, in agreement with the earlier ASCAT\r\ndata.  This estimate is a little higher than the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Ian has slowed down during the last\r\nseveral hours.  The initial motion estimate, using a 12-h average,\r\nis 335/8 kt.  The tropical cyclone is situated between a mid- to\r\nupper-level low to its west and a mid-level high to its east.  This\r\npattern is expected to persist for the next couple of days, and\r\nshould cause Ian to move north-northwestward to northward with a\r\nslight increase in forward speed.  After that time, a shortwave\r\ntrough is expected to approach the tropical storm, and it will\r\nlikely cause Ian to turn northeastward and accelerate as it becomes\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude flow.  The models are in fair agreement\r\nin this overall scenario, and only small changes were made to the\r\nprevious NHC track forecast.  This prediction is in best agreement\r\nwith the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nThe strong shear currently affecting Ian is expected to persist for\r\nanother 24 hours, so little change in strength is predicted during\r\nthat time.  The shear is forecast to lessen some in a couple of days\r\nwhile Ian is still over warm water.  These environmental conditions,\r\ncombined with some baroclinic forcing, could allow for slight\r\nstrengthening in the 36- to 72-h time period.  After that time, Ian\r\nis expected to move back into a strong shear environment and over\r\nprogressively colder water, which should lead to extratropical\r\ntransition in about 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely\r\nthe same as the previous one, and is in best agreement with the\r\nSHIPS guidance during its tropical phase and the global models\r\nduring the extratropical portion.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 24.0N  51.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 25.4N  52.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 27.8N  53.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 30.4N  53.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 33.2N  53.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 40.7N  46.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 50.7N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  18/0600Z 58.5N  18.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nIan remains a sheared tropical storm, with the low-cloud center\r\nexposed to the south of the main area of deep convection.  The\r\ncurrent intensity estimate remains 40 kt, since the system has not\r\nbecome better organized since the time of the last scatterometer\r\npass.  The strong shear over Ian is being produced by an upper-level\r\nlow a couple of hundred miles to the west-northwest.  The global\r\nmodels predict this low to open up into a negatively-tilted trough,\r\nwith some slight relaxation of the shear over the storm, in 24-36\r\nhours.  Therefore slight strengthening is shown by the official\r\nforecast after 24 hours, in line with the latest model consensus.\r\nThe global model guidance depicts the cyclone to become frontal over\r\nthe north Atlantic by 96 hours, and this is also reflected in the\r\nofficial forecast.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone is moving north-northwestward at a slightly\r\nfaster forward speed, or around 330/11 kt.  Ian is expected to\r\ncontinue to move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical\r\nridge over the next day or so.  Then, an approaching trough in the\r\nwesterlies should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward and\r\naccelerate.  The official track forecast is a little faster than\r\nthe previous one, but not as fast as the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodel predictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 25.4N  52.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 27.3N  53.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 29.9N  53.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 32.6N  53.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 35.5N  52.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 44.0N  42.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 54.0N  28.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  18/1200Z 62.0N  13.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nIan continues to be sheared, and the low-level center is estimated\r\nto be near the southern edge of a ragged-looking area of deep\r\nconvection.  Since there has been no appreciable increase in the\r\norganization of the tropical cyclone, the advisory intensity is held\r\nat 40 kt, which is the mean of Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  Given that the shear is forecast to remain strong enough\r\nto inhibit strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, with some\r\nrelaxation thereafter, the official intensity forecast shows some\r\nslow strengthening beginning tomorrow night.  The official forecast\r\nis in good agreement with the latest LGEM guidance.  In 72 hours,\r\nthe global models predict the cyclone to have a frontal structure\r\nover the north Atlantic, so the official forecast shows Ian as\r\nextratropical by that time.\r\n\r\nThe storm has sped up a bit, and the initial motion is now near\r\n340/14 kt.  Over the next day or so, Ian will continue to move\r\nthrough a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge.  Later, when\r\nthe cyclone moves into the mid-latitude westerlies, a shortwave\r\ntrough approaching from the west should cause Ian to accelerate\r\nnorth-northeastward to northeastward.  The official track forecast\r\nis faster than the previous one, but not quite as fast as the\r\nlatest ECMWF and GFS solutions.  This is close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus and the FSU Superensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 27.0N  52.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 29.1N  53.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 31.8N  53.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 34.5N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 37.5N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 48.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 58.0N  22.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  18/1800Z 64.5N   8.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nIan's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since this\r\nafternoon.  The low-level center remains exposed to the south of a\r\nfan-shaped mass of deep convection.  This structure is consistent\r\nwith a deep-layer southwesterly vertical shear of nearly 40 kt\r\nassociated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric cyclone to the\r\nwest of the cyclone. A 0018Z ASCAT pass showed reliable surface\r\nwinds near 45 kt well north of the center, which agrees with a TAFB\r\nsatellite classifciation of T3.0.  On this basis, the initial\r\nintensity is increased to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate has been nudged a little more to the\r\nright than earlier today and is now 345/11 kt.  Ian should continue\r\nto move generally northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge\r\nover the central Atlantic during the next 24 hours or so.  A\r\nsignificant acceleration toward the northeast should occur in about\r\n36 hours when a shortwave trough moving through Atlantic Canada\r\napproaches Ian.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of\r\nthe previous one, especially after 24 hours, and is in agreement\r\nwith the the latest track consensus aids.\r\n\r\nThe SHIPS output indicates that the shear should decrease,\r\nbeginning in about 12 hours, roughly around the time that Ian\r\nbecomes co-located with the upper low to its west.  The shear is\r\nforecast to reach a relative minimum 24 hours later while the flow\r\naloft gradually becomes more diffluent.  This baroclinic forcing is\r\nexpected to result in some intensification while Ian remains over\r\nwarm waters, though the cyclone could possess attributes of both a\r\ntropical and an extratropical cyclone. Extratropical transition is\r\nindicated in 2 to 3 days, with absorption by a larger extratropical\r\nstorm system over the North Atlantic likely around 72 hours.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and\r\nnear the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 27.6N  52.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 29.8N  53.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 32.3N  53.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 35.2N  51.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 39.4N  47.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 49.7N  33.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Ian has changed little during the past several\r\nhours.  The low-level center of the tropical storm is completely\r\nexposed and located more than 100 n mi south of the main area of\r\ndeep convection.  This poor structure is the result of about 30 kt\r\nof south-southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The initial intensity\r\nis held at 45 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data\r\nand a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.\r\n\r\nIan is moving northward at about 13 kt, and is being steered\r\nby the southerly flow between a mid- to upper-level low to its west\r\nand a ridge to its east.  A northward to north-northeastward motion\r\nat about the same forward speed is forecast during the next 24 hours\r\nas the steering pattern more or less persists.  After that time, a\r\nshortwave trough is expected to move east of Atlantic Canada, and\r\nthat should cause Ian to turn northeastward and sharply accelerate\r\nuntil the cyclone becomes absorbed by a large extratropical low in 3\r\nto 4 days. The models are in good agreement, and the official\r\nforecast lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe strong shear that has been affecting Ian since genesis is\r\nexpected to let up some during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The\r\npredicted lower shear, fairly warm water, and baroclinic forcing\r\nshould allow Ian to strengthen a little during the next day or two.\r\nBeyond a couple of days, Ian is forecast to move over sharply\r\ncooler sea surface temperatures and into an environment of strong\r\nshear.  These conditions should cause the cyclone to lose\r\nits tropical characteristics in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous one, and lies near the middle\r\nof the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 29.3N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 31.3N  53.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 34.0N  52.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 37.2N  49.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 41.6N  43.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 53.4N  28.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nIan's center has lost some definition and appears to have re-formed\r\nnorth of the feature we had been tracking.  The center remains\r\nexposed to the south and southeast of the deep convection due to\r\nalmost 30 kt of vertical shear.  Based on the Dvorak Current\r\nIntensity number from TAFB, the estimated maximum winds remain 45\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nDue to the center's re-formation, the initial motion is a faster\r\n355/17 kt.  However, unless the center jumps again, this motion is\r\nexpected to stabilize back to around 14 kt in the next 12 hours.  A\r\nmid-/upper-level low to the west of Ian and a mid-tropospheric high\r\nto the east should steer the cyclone northward and north-\r\nnortheastward during the next day or so.  After that time, Ian is\r\nexpected to accelerate toward the northeast as it gets picked up by\r\na progressive mid-latitude trough moving eastward from Atlantic\r\nCanada.  The new track guidance agrees on this scenario, although a\r\nslight westward shift in the official track forecast was required,\r\nprobably due to the updated initial position.  The new NHC forecast\r\nis very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough the vertical shear is expected to decrease only slightly,\r\nmarginally warm waters and Ian's baroclinic interaction with the\r\nmid-/upper-level low to its west are expected to foster some\r\nstrengthening during the next 36 hours.  Ian is then expected to\r\nlose the last of its tropical characteristics and become\r\nextratropical by 48 hours and then be absorbed by another\r\nextratropical low by 72 hours.  This forecast follows guidance\r\nprovided by the Ocean Prediction Center and is closest to the\r\nscenario shown by the ECMWF model.  There is still some uncertainty\r\nin this thinking, however, since the GFS, UKMET, and Canadian models\r\nmake Ian the dominant extratropical low over the far northern\r\nAtlantic.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 31.4N  53.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 33.7N  52.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 36.7N  51.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 40.2N  46.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 45.4N  39.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nIan does not look much like a tropical storm this afternoon with all\r\nof its convection well removed from a rather broad and disorganized\r\nlow-level circulation.  In fact, Ian has some subtropical\r\ncharacteristics, including its collocation with an upper-level low\r\nand a large radius of maximum wind.  However, these features could\r\nbe temporary. The initial wind speed remains 45 kt based on\r\ncontinuity.\r\n\r\nAn uncertain estimate of the initial motion is 350/15.  Ian should\r\nbe steered northward and northeastward during the next day or so as\r\nit moves around the subtropical ridge.  The cyclone is expected to\r\naccelerate quickly toward the northeast as it gets picked up by a\r\nmid-latitude trough moving eastward from Atlantic Canada. Similar to\r\nthe previous advisory, a slight westward shift in the official track\r\nforecast was required mostly due to the updated initial position.\r\nOtherwise, the forecast is a bit faster than the model consensus.\r\n\r\nIan does not have much time left to intensify as a tropical cyclone\r\nsince it should move over colder waters by tomorrow evening. It does\r\nhave a narrow window of lower shear during the next day, although\r\ngiven its current poor organization and structure, no significant\r\nintensification is forecast during that time.  Ian is then expected\r\nto lose its tropical characteristics by 36 hours and be absorbed by\r\nanother extratropical low by 72 hours.  The only significant change\r\nto the intensity forecast is for a stronger extratropical phase, but\r\nnot quite as strong as the 12 UTC GFS solution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 32.9N  53.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 34.8N  53.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 38.0N  50.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 42.7N  44.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 49.0N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nWater vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low has moved\r\nover and has become superimposed with Ian's low-level center. Broken\r\nconvective banding features, along with an abundance of lightning,\r\nhave developed northwest through northeast of the center. Drifting\r\nbuoy 41506, located about 20 nmi north of the center reported\r\n1001.5 mb pressure at 0100Z. Another drifting buoy located about\r\n150 nmi east of the center reported a pressure of around 1015 mb,\r\nand the pressure difference between Ian and that buoy supports a\r\ngradient wind of 50-52 kt. For now, the initial intensity of Ian\r\nwill remain at 45 kt since another scatterometer pass over the\r\ncyclone is due shortly. Ship BATFR13 has been reporting winds of 30\r\nkt about 250 nmi north-northeast of the center, which supports the\r\nprevious and current 34-kt wind radius of 200 nmi in that quadrant.\r\n\r\nIan has made the much anticipated turn toward the north-northeast,\r\nand the cyclone is now moving 015/12 kt. Ian should gradually turn\r\nmore toward the northeast during the next 24 hours and accelerate\r\nas the storm moves around the western portion of Bermuda-Azores\r\nHigh, and ahead of an advancing strong shortwave trough. The new\r\nforecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous\r\nadvisory track and lies down the middle of the tightly packed NHC\r\ntrack model guidance.\r\n\r\nIan is looking more like a subtropical cyclone on conventional\r\nsatellite.  However, the recent increase in deep convection near and\r\nwithin 75 nmi of the center, along with recent AMSU data indicating\r\nthat the system still has a mid- to upper-level warm-core structure,\r\nsupport maintaining Ian as a tropical cyclone. Ian has about 24\r\nhours or so remaining to intensify as a tropical cyclone while it is\r\nlocated south of the Gulf Stream and over warm waters. By 36 hours,\r\nIan will lose its tropical characteristics over cooler water, but\r\nsome baroclinic forcing is expected to help strengthen the cyclone.\r\nBy 72 hours, Ian is expected to be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical low. The intensity forecast remains unchanged from the\r\nprevious advisory and follows the trend of global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 33.9N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 36.3N  51.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 40.3N  47.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 45.8N  39.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 51.7N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nIan continues to have a structure somewhat resembling a subtropical\r\ncyclone, with the low-level center situated beneath an upper-level\r\nlow and a cloud pattern featuring a broken band of convection.\r\nHowever, there is still some moderate to deep convection not too far\r\nfrom the center, and the most recent AMSU pass still showed a deep\r\nwarm core structure.  The initial intensity remains 45 kt in\r\nagreement with the latest satellite classification of ST3.5 from\r\nTAFB.  Ian is running out of time to strengthen via diabatic\r\nprocesses, and most of the strengthening shown here is expected to\r\nbe due to baroclinic effects, especially given the current\r\nconvective structure.  By 24 hours, strong shear and cool SSTs\r\nshould result in Ian being post-tropical, and the cyclone should be\r\nfully extratropical by 36 hours.  The intensity forecast is based\r\nmainly on the global models and guidance from the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter, and shows the post-tropical cyclone intensifying to near\r\nhurricane strength before it's absorbed by a larger extratropical\r\nlow in 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 025/17.  Ian should accelerate\r\nnortheastward ahead of a large upper-level trough moving eastward\r\nacross the northwestern Atlantic during the next 36 hours before\r\nbeing absorbed.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on a partial ASCAT\r\npass from around 0100 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 35.5N  52.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 38.3N  49.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 43.0N  43.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 49.1N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/0600Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nAfter looking more like a subtropical cyclone than a tropical\r\ncyclone for most of the past 24 hours, there has recently been an\r\nincrease in convective banding over the eastern semicircle of Ian.\r\nThe initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a subtropical cyclone\r\nintensity estimate from TAFB.  Ian is forecast to merge with the\r\nwesterlies and undergo extratropical transition during the next\r\n36-48 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to at\r\nleast storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical\r\nlow. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous\r\nforecast based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center\r\n\r\nIan is accelerating northeastward and the initial motion is now\r\n040/21.  A northeastward motion with an additional increase in\r\nforward speed is expected before the cyclone is absorbed.  The new\r\nforecast track is near the center of the tightly clustered track\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 37.2N  50.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 40.3N  46.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 45.6N  39.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 51.5N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nA scatterometer overpass shows that the circulation of Ian is losing\r\ndefinition as the cyclone accelerates northeastward, with the system\r\nelongating north to south.  The scatterometer did not sample the\r\nmaximum winds, and the subtropical cyclone satellite intensity\r\nestimates are unchanged.  Based on this, the initial intensity\r\nremains a likely conservative 45 kt.  Ian is forecast to merge with\r\na baroclinic zone and undergo extratropical transition during the\r\nnext 12-36 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to\r\nat least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical\r\nlow. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous\r\nforecast based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nIan continues to accelerate northeastward and the initial motion is\r\nnow 040/30 kt.  A northeastward motion with an additional increase\r\nin forward speed is expected before the cyclone is absorbed.  The\r\nnew forecast track remains near the center of the tightly clustered\r\ntrack guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 39.6N  47.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 43.2N  42.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 49.5N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 55.5N  26.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 61.0W  18.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nIan has continued to accelerate northeastward within deep-layer\r\nsouthwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and strong\r\nshortwave trough, and this general motion is expected for the next\r\n2 days until the system becomes absorbed by a larger extratropical\r\nlow. The new track forecast is essentially just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track and remains near the center of the tightly\r\nclustered NHC model guidance, close to the GFS and ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial intensity remains at 45 kt based a 16/0034Z ASCAT-B\r\noverpass that contained few 43-kt wind vectors southeast of the\r\nwell-defined low-level center. Ian is forecast to merge with\r\na baroclinic zone and undergo extratropical transition during the\r\nnext 12-36 hours, and in the process it is expected to strengthen to\r\nat least storm-force before it is absorbed by another extratropical\r\nlow. The new intensity forecast is the same as the previous\r\nadvisory based on the global models and guidance from the Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 42.9N  44.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 46.9N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 53.3N  31.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 58.9N  23.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 63.3N  15.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ian","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nCloud tops have warmed near the center of Ian overnight, but the\r\ncloud pattern in geostationary imagery still resembles that of a\r\ntropical cyclone.  A small mid-level eye and a banding convective\r\nstructure are also seen in a 0417 UTC AMSR-2 overpass from GCOM-W1.\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 50 kt based on the latest ST3.0\r\nclassification from TAFB and the fast forward speed of the cyclone,\r\nwhich now exceeds 40 kt.  Ian should become extratropical within 12\r\nhours and then be absorbed by another front near or northeast of\r\nIceland in about 48 hours, as indicated by the latest ECMWF and\r\nUKMET model solutions.\r\n\r\nThe AMSR-2 pass mentioned above and a 0544 UTC SSM/I pass were\r\nhelpful in locating the low-level center of Ian, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 040/42.  The cyclone should\r\ncontinue moving quickly northeastward ahead of a large upper-level\r\ntrough until it is absorbed.  The new NHC track forecast is based on\r\na blend of the tightly clustered global model guidance.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts are based largely on\r\nguidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 45.2N  40.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 50.1N  34.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 57.2N  25.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 61.8N  18.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Ian","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nIan has transitioned into an extratropical low this morning.  Any of\r\nthe remaining weak-to-moderate convection is the northern side of\r\nthe circulation, with cold air wrapping into the center of the\r\ncyclone as it is overtaken by a cold front.  The initial intensity\r\nof 55 kt is based on ASCAT data.  Ian should move quickly\r\nnortheastward and gradually weaken before a larger extratropical low\r\nabsorbs it in about 2 days.  The track, intensity, and wind radii\r\nforecasts are based largely on guidance from the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 48.8N  36.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 54.0N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 59.5N  22.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 64.5N  14.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure that has been moving along the Florida\r\neast coast has managed to maintain persistent deep convection,\r\naccompanied by a small area of tropical-storm-force winds, close to\r\nthe area of lowest pressure for well over 12 hours now. And while\r\nthe winds to the west and south of the center are not more than\r\nabout 10 kt, they have defined a closed center for much of the\r\nafternoon and evening. Given this persistent organization, the\r\nsystem is classifiable as a tropical cyclone and advisories are\r\nbeing initiated on Tropical Storm Julia, the tenth named storm of\r\nthe 2016 Atlantic hurricane season.\r\n\r\nThe motion of the system has been north-northwestward today, with\r\nthe convective asymmetry likely contributing to a track to the right\r\nof much of the objective track guidance.  That trend is forecast to\r\ncontinue for the next day or so, and the official forecast lies to\r\nthe right of the model consensus - leaning in the direction of the\r\nHWRF.  With the center expected to remain over land, and westerly\r\nshear of about 20 kt expected over the next day or so, little change\r\nin strength is expected until the system pushes farther inland and\r\nbegins to weaken.  Nevertheless, a small area of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds should continue to push northward along\r\nthe coast within the warning area tonight and early Wednesday.\r\n\r\nThe slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally\r\nheavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near\r\n10 inches along and east of where the center moves. These rains\r\ncould result in flash flooding. Also, Doppler weather radar data\r\nduring the past few hours indicate a significant improvement in the\r\ncurved banding features to the north and east of the center. As a\r\nresult, an isolated tornado or two will be possible overnight and on\r\nWednesday when some of the stronger rainbands move onshore across\r\nnortheastern Florida and southeastern Georgia.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 30.3N  81.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 31.2N  81.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 31.8N  82.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 32.1N  82.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 32.3N  82.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart/Franklin\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nJulia continues to produce bands of showers and thunderstorms\r\nprimarily over water to the northeast of its center, but this\r\nactivity has become a little more separated from the center\r\novernight.  The strong winds that occurred during the evening along\r\nthe northeast Florida coast have spread northward along the coast\r\nof southern Georgia with recent surface observations reporting\r\nwind gusts to tropical storm force.  Julia should gradually weaken\r\nduring the next day or so due to continued land interaction and\r\nwesterly shear.  The updated intensity forecast calls for Julia to\r\nweaken to a tropical depression later today and become a remnant low\r\non Thursday.  This is supported by the global models, which show the\r\nlow filling and wind field gradually diminishing over the next 36\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nJulia is moving northward at about 6 kt.  The tropical cyclone is\r\nforecast to slow down later today, and drift northward over eastern\r\nGeorgia during the next couple of days.  The track guidance has\r\nshifted eastward this cycle, and the official forecast has been\r\nadjusted accordingly.\r\n\r\nThe slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally\r\nheavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts near\r\n10 inches along the Georgia and South Carolina coastlines. These\r\nrains could result in flash flooding.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 30.9N  81.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 31.6N  81.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 31.9N  81.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 32.1N  81.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 32.2N  81.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nJulia is estimated to be maintaining 35-kt winds, based on WSR 88-D\r\nDoppler velocity data, well offshore of the coast.  Since the\r\nsystem will continue to interact with land, weakening is forecast\r\nand the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low in a couple of\r\ndays.  The official intensity forecast is close to the latest\r\nD-SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  There is a possibility, however, that\r\nthe system could strengthen if it moves far enough out over water.\r\n\r\nThe center of Julia may be reforming closer to the Georgia coast,\r\nalthough the surface observations are not yet definitive, and the\r\ninitial motion is a highly uncertain 030/5 kt.  The tropical\r\ncyclone is likely to remain in weak steering currents near the axis\r\nof the subtropical ridge, and the track guidance models indicate\r\nthat some erratic motion is likely over the next couple of days.\r\nThe official forecast shows a very slow motion after 12 hours, and\r\nis east of the previous NHC track.\r\n\r\nThe slow forward speed of Julia is expected to result in locally\r\nheavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts near\r\n10 inches along portions of the South Carolina coastline.  These\r\nrains could result in flash flooding.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 31.4N  81.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 32.2N  80.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 32.3N  80.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 32.3N  80.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nThe storm continues to have an asymmetric cloud pattern, with\r\nlittle deep convection over the western and southern portions of\r\nthe circulation.  The current intensity estimate remains at 35 kt\r\nbased on WSR-88D Doppler velocity data.  Since the system is\r\nexpected to be over water for the next couple of days,  some\r\nstrengthening is now possible.  However the vertical shear, which\r\nis currently approaching 20 kt, is forecast by the dynamical models\r\nto increase to near 30 kt in 48 hours.  This strong shear should\r\nlimit significant intensification, as indicated in the latest\r\nofficial forecast.  The NHC forecast is also very close to\r\nthe latest intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images and surface observations indicate that the\r\ncyclone continues moving northeastward, or around 040/5 kt.\r\nJulia is likely to remain in a weak steering environment, near the\r\naxis of the subtropical ridge, for the next few days.  Most\r\nof the track guidance shows a slow and erratic motion, and the GFS\r\nand ECMWF global models depict the system looping back to the\r\ncoast in several days.  This is also shown in the latest official\r\ntrack forecast, which is shifted considerably east of the previous\r\nNHC prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 32.1N  80.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 32.3N  80.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 32.4N  79.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 32.3N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 32.2N  79.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 32.0N  80.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 32.2N  80.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 32.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nThe low-level circulation has become a little bit elongated, and\r\ndue to southwesterly shear most of the convection has shifted to the\r\nnortheast of the center. A convective band is still wrapping around\r\nthe eastern portion of the cyclone. Based on surface observations,\r\nWSR-88D Doppler velocity data, and satellite estimates, the initial\r\nintensity is kept at 35 kt.  Since the cyclone is over water, some\r\nslight intensification is possible during the next day or so before\r\nthe shear increases as forecast by global models. A gradual\r\nweakening should then begin in about 36 hours.\r\n\r\nJulia appears to be moving toward the east-northeast at about 4 kt.\r\nThe steering currents are forecast to collapse, and most of the\r\nmodels keep a weakening cyclone meandering during the next few days.\r\nThe NHC track forecast follows such a trend and predicts a very slow\r\neastward drift during the next 48 hours. Little motion is\r\nanticipated thereafter.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 32.1N  79.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 32.2N  79.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 32.2N  78.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 32.1N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 32.0N  78.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 32.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 32.0N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 32.0N  79.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nWesterly shear of about 25 knots has advected dry air over Julia\r\nand removed all of the deep convection from the cyclone center, with\r\nthe coldest cloud tops now more than 100 n mi to the east.  Coastal\r\nobservations have shown the winds decreasing overnight, with most\r\nlocations now reporting sustained winds of 20 to 25 kt.  Based on\r\nthese data, Julia is downgraded to a depression with an initial\r\nintensity of 30 kt, which is in agreement with a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Despite the\r\ncyclone being situated over warm SSTs, persistent shear and dry air\r\nshould result in little change in intensity during the next few\r\ndays.  Remnant low status is forecast at 72 hours, but this could\r\noccur much sooner if organized deep convection does not return.  The\r\nremnant low is forecast to dissipate in 4-5 days, consistent with\r\nthe latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nJulia has moved little overnight, and the initial motion estimate is\r\na slow eastward drift at 2 kt.  The shallow cyclone is expected to\r\ncontinue drifting eastward today and then meander in weak steering\r\ncurrents until dissipation.  This forecast is based on the latest\r\nGFS and ECMWF tracks and is similar to the previous official\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 32.0N  79.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 32.0N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 32.0N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 32.0N  78.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 31.9N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 31.9N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 32.0N  79.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nNew convection has formed near and east of the center of Julia\r\nduring the past few hours, although the low-level center remains\r\npartially exposed due to westerly vertical wind shear.  Subjective\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB are 30 and 35 kt\r\nrespectively, while various objective estimates are 35-45 kt.  The\r\ninitial intensity is kept at 30 kt pending the arrival of an Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft, but there is a possibility\r\nthat this is conservative.\r\n\r\nAfter not moving much overnight, the center of Julia has jumped\r\neastward this morning.  The overall long-term motion is 095/7, but\r\nthe short-term motion is significantly faster than that.  The\r\nforecast guidance is in good agreement that Julia should move little\r\nafter 12 hours, and the new track forecast is based on the premise\r\nthat the current forward speed will decrease by the 12 hours\r\npoint. The new forecast track has the same general idea as the\r\nprevious track, but the area where Julia will meander is now\r\nforecast to be about 90 n mi farther east than in the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nJulia is forecast to experience very strong westerly to\r\nnorthwesterly shear for the next four days or so, and this is\r\nexpected to cause a gradual weakening during this time.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast follows the previous one, as well as the GFS and\r\nECMWF models, in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant\r\nlow by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours.  It should be\r\nnoted that the shear could decrease after 96 hours, and the UKMET\r\nand Canadian models forecast re-intensification at that time.\r\nHowever, at this time it appears unlikely that the cyclone will\r\nsurvive long enough to take advantage of the possibly more\r\nfavorable environment.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 31.8N  78.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 31.8N  78.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 31.7N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 31.6N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 31.4N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 31.5N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 32.0N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Julia\r\nand reported estimated surface winds of 35-40 kt from the SFMR\r\ninstrument in the northeast quadrant, along with a central pressure\r\nof 1007 mb.  The maximum flight-level winds at 850 mb were 34 kt.\r\nBased on a blend of the surface estimates and flight-level winds,\r\nthe initial intensity is increased to 35 kt. The aircraft reported a\r\nsharp trough extending to the east of the center, and the storm is\r\nproducing vigorous convective bursts near the center and along the\r\ntrough.\r\n\r\nJulia continues to move generally eastward or 085/7, possibly due\r\nto the reformation of the center caused by the convective bursts.\r\nThe track guidance continues to forecast that the cyclone will slow\r\nits forward motion in the next 12 hours, after which it will move\r\nvery little through 72-96 hours.  Based on this premise, which so\r\nfar has not come to pass, the new forecast track will keep Julia\r\nmoving east for 12 hours and then show a loop from 12-96 hours. The\r\nnew forecast area of meandering is about 60 n mi east of that from\r\nthe previous forecast.\r\n\r\nJulia is likely to experience very strong westerly to northwesterly\r\nshear from 12-84 hours, and this is expected to cause a gradual\r\nweakening during this time.  The NHC intensity forecast follows the\r\nprevious one in calling for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant\r\nlow by 72 hours and dissipate completely by 120 hours.  If Julia\r\nsurvives the extended period of shear, the environment should become\r\nmore favorable after 84 hours, and the system could re-intensify as\r\nforecast by the UKMET and Canadian models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 32.1N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 32.0N  76.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 31.8N  76.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 31.5N  76.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 31.5N  76.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 32.0N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 32.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nJust like it occurred last night, a surge of strong upper-level\r\nwesterly winds removed the convection from the center of Julia again\r\ntonight. Satellite images show that the circulation is still\r\nvigorous, and it is generously assumed that tropical-storm-force\r\nwinds are occuring well to the east of the center. On this basis,\r\nthe initial intensity is kept at 35 kt. The strong shear is forecast\r\nto persist, and the most likely solution is for Julia to maintain\r\nthe same intensity for another 12 hours or so, and then gradually\r\ndecay as indicated in the previous NHC forecast. It is worth noting\r\nthat the SHIPS and LGEM models maintain Julia as tropical storm for\r\nthe next 3 days, but the given the strong shear predicted by these\r\nmodels, their solution does not appear to be realistic.\r\n\r\nThe tight swirl of low clouds defining the center of Julia has been\r\nmoving slowly toward the east-southeast or 120 degrees at 4 kt.\r\nHowever, the steering currents are expected to be weak, and the NHC\r\nforecast calls for Julia to meander during the next 2 to 3 days. By\r\nthen, Julia is expected to be a remnant low, and probably will\r\nbegin to drift northeastward, embedded within the mid-latitude flow.\r\nSince the steering currents are likely to be weak and poorly\r\ndefined, the track models are showing divergent solutions, varying\r\nfrom northeast to southwest tracks, and some show no motion at all.\r\nThe discrepancy in the models increases the uncertainty of the NHC\r\ntrack forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 31.5N  77.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 31.2N  76.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 31.0N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 31.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 31.5N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 31.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 32.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to burst 60 to 70 n mi east of the center\r\nof Julia and is then pushed farther to the east by 25 to 30 kt of\r\nwesterly shear affecting the cyclone.  The initial intensity is held\r\nat 35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, and this\r\ncould be a little generous.  The shear will remain strong for the\r\nnext 2-3 days, and the cyclone is expected to remain in a dry\r\nmid-level environment, which should result in a gradual spin down to\r\nremnant low status.  The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous\r\none and reflects this thinking.\r\n\r\nJulia has been moving southeastward tonight, and the initial motion\r\nestimate is 135/04.  The cyclone is expected to meander erratically\r\nfor the next 2-3 days in weak steering flow, while late in the\r\nperiod the remnant low should begin to move northeastward.  Not\r\nsurprisingly, the track model guidance shows a lot of spread in the\r\ndirection of motion and the forward speed, so the uncertainty in the\r\ntrack forecast remains large.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 31.1N  76.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 30.8N  76.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 30.9N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 31.0N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 31.2N  76.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 32.0N  76.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 32.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nJulia continues to feel the impact of 25 to 35 kt of westerly\r\nvertical wind shear, as the main deep convection remains about\r\n40 to 60 n mi east of the low-level center.  Various subjective and\r\nobjective satellite intensity estimates are near 35 kt, and that\r\nremains the initial intensity.  It is noted that buoy 41002 located\r\nabout 55 n mi northeast of the center is reporting winds of less\r\nthan 30 kt, so it is possible that initial intensity is a little\r\ngenerous.\r\n\r\nThere is decreasing confidence in the intensity forecast.  While\r\nJulia is expected to stay in a strong shear environment for the\r\nnext 60 hours or so, the dynamical models suggest that the\r\nupper-level winds over the cyclone may be less than forecast\r\nyesterday.  After 60 hours, all guidance suggests that the shear\r\nshould decrease, and at that time the Canadian and UKMET models show\r\nre-intensification.  On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF forecast\r\nJulia to continue to weaken even in the more favorable upper-level\r\nwinds.  The new intensity forecast stays with the scenario of the\r\nprevious forecast in calling for the shear to cause the cyclone's\r\ndemise.  However, this forecast is on the low edge of the intensity\r\nguidance, and the chances that Julia will survive and re-intensify\r\nare higher than they were 24 hours ago.\r\n\r\nJulia continues to move erratically east-southeastward with an\r\ninitial motion of 105/6.  The cyclone is expected to meander\r\nfor the next 2 days or so in weak steering flow.  In 3-4 days, a\r\nmid- to upper-level trough moving into the northeastern United\r\nStates should steer the cyclone or its remnants northeastward.\r\nThere remains a considerable amount of uncertainty in the track\r\nforecast due somewhat to the uncertainties in the intensity.\r\nA weaker Julia should be slower to move northeastward as shown by\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF, while a stronger Julia will move somewhat more\r\nquickly toward the northeast as shown by the Canadian.  Overall, the\r\nnew forecast track goes with the slower scenario and and is an\r\nupdate of the previous track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 31.1N  75.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 30.9N  75.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 30.8N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 30.9N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 31.2N  76.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 32.5N  76.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 33.0N  74.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Julia","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite data and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft indicate that Julia has lost organization since\r\nthis time yesterday.  The winds have decreased in most parts of the\r\ncirculation, and the center is now well exposed to the west of the\r\nmain area of convection.  The aircraft reported a central pressure\r\nnear 1008 mb and SFMR surface wind estimates of 35 kt within 30 n\r\nmi of the center over the northern semicircle.  These data are the\r\nbasis for keeping the initial intensity 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast remains low confidence.  Currently, Julia is\r\nin an environment of 25-35 kt of westerly vertical shear, and this\r\nhostile environment should continue for the next 48 hours.  After\r\nthat time, the guidance remains in good agreement that the shear\r\nshould decrease.  However, it is in poor agreement as to what that\r\nmeans for the cyclone.  The Canadian and UKMET continue to forecast\r\na stronger system, while the GFS, ECMWF, and HWRF forecast Julia to\r\ndissipate or remain weak.  Given the current trends, there is no\r\nchange to the dissipation scenario used in the intensity forecast.\r\nHowever, this forecast again is on the low edge of the intensity\r\nguidance, and there remains a chance that Julia will survive and\r\nre-intensify.\r\n\r\nJulia appears to finally have stopped its eastward motion, and the\r\ninitial motion is now a somewhat uncertain 190/3.  In the next day\r\nor so, the cyclone should be steered toward the southwest and west\r\nby the low-level ridge to the north.  After 36 hours, a baroclinic\r\ntrough moving into the northeastern United States should weaken the\r\nridge and allow Julia, or its remnants, to turn northward and\r\neventually northeastward.  There remains a significant spread\r\nbetween the much faster Canadian and ECMWF models and the slower GFS\r\nand UKMET models.  The new forecast track favors a lower solution\r\nand keeps Julia moving at less than 5 kt before dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 30.8N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 30.7N  75.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 30.8N  76.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 31.1N  76.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 31.5N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 33.0N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 33.5N  75.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nDeja vu all over again.  Julia lost all its deep convection tonight\r\nand now consists of a very tight swirl of low clouds.  Assuming\r\nthat the cyclone is spinning down, the initial intensity has been\r\nlowered to 30 kt. I would not be surprised if another round of\r\nconvection develops near the center despite the strong westerly\r\nshear, but the cyclone will likely become decapitated again by\r\nstrong upper-level westerlies.\r\n\r\nGiven that the strong shear will likely persist for the next 2 days\r\nor so, weakening is indicated in the NHC forecast. By the time the\r\nshear is expected to decrease, it is probably too late for the\r\ncyclone to recover, and in a couple of days, if not sooner, Julia is\r\nexpected to be a remnant low.\r\n\r\nThere has been no significant motion during the past day or so,\r\nand basically the cyclone has been meandering while it is trapped in\r\nvery light steering currents. This pattern is not expected to\r\nchange, and Julia or its remnants will likely continue milling\r\naround for the next 2 to 3 days until dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 30.2N  76.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 30.2N  76.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 30.5N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 31.0N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 31.5N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 32.5N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nJulia continues to consist of a swirl of low clouds, and although\r\nthere have been a few intermittent showers, the cyclone has been\r\nwithout organized deep convection since around 2100 UTC yesterday.\r\nA pair of ASCAT passes around 0200 UTC showed maximum winds of 26-27\r\nkt on the north side of the circulation, so the initial intensity is\r\nset to 25 kt for this advisory.  If organized deep convection does\r\nnot return, Julia will likely become a remnant low later today.\r\nGiven that shear of 20-30 kt is forecast to continue over Julia for\r\nthe next 36-48 hours, it seems unlikely that the cyclone will\r\nrecover, although occasional bursts of convection are possible.  The\r\nlatest ECMWF fields show Julia dissipating in a couple of days, with\r\nthe GFS holding onto a weak low into day 4.  As a compromise, the\r\nNHC forecast shows the remnant low dissipating in 72 hours, but this\r\ncould occur sooner.\r\n\r\nAfter drifting southwestward earlier, Julia has been stationary\r\nrecently.  Steering currents will remain weak, but the shallow\r\ncyclone should gradually turn northwestward and northward as a\r\nlow-level ridge currently north of Julia weakens during the next 48\r\nhours.  The new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the\r\nprevious one and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions near the\r\nmiddle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 30.1N  76.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 30.3N  76.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 30.6N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 31.1N  77.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 31.6N  77.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nConvection has increased somewhat over the eastern quadrant of\r\nJulia, both in a cluster about 150 n mi east of the center and in\r\nthin bands closer to the center.  This is just enough to keep the\r\ncyclone a tropical depression for this advisory.  In the short term,\r\nthe vertical wind shear is not favorable to sustain convection, and\r\nthe cyclone should decay to a remnant low in 12 hours or less.  The\r\ndynamical models forecast the shear to decrease after 36 hours, but\r\nit is likely that the remnant low will not be strong enough to take\r\nadvantage of the more favorable environment.  Thus, the intensity\r\nforecast continues to call for dissipation by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression is currently nearly stationary.  A low- to mid-level\r\nridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during\r\nthe forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the\r\neastern United States.  The flow between these features should steer\r\nthe cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for\r\nthe remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to, but a little east of, the previous forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 30.2N  76.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 30.4N  76.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 31.0N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 31.5N  77.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 32.2N  77.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nDespite ongoing vertical wind shear, Julia continues to produce\r\nenough convection to avoid decaying to a remnant low.  It appears\r\nthat a small upper-level trough located just northwest of the\r\ndepression is providing a more favorable environment for convection\r\nthan anticipated earlier.  The dynamical models forecast this\r\ntrough to move to the southeast of Julia during the next several\r\nhours, leaving the cyclone in an area of stronger shear and\r\nsubsidence that should bring an end to the convective activity.\r\nThe only change in the intensity forecast was to add a 72-hour\r\npoint, as the GFS and ECMWF models now forecast Julia to persist as\r\na remnant low through that time.\r\n\r\nJulia is now drifting northwestward.  A low- to mid-level ridge\r\nnorth of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during\r\nthe forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the\r\neastern United States.  The flow between these features should steer\r\nthe cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for\r\nthe remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is\r\nsifted a little west of the previous forecast based on a slight\r\nwestward shift in the guidance, and it lies near the various\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 30.5N  76.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 30.9N  76.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 31.5N  77.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 32.2N  77.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 32.7N  77.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 33.0N  78.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nI have two options this evening. The first one, which is very\r\nattractive, is to classify Julia as a remnant low and terminate\r\nadvisories. The second one is to keep Julia as a tropical depression\r\nin this advisory given that there was deep convection associated\r\nwith the center only a few hours ago. Although it lacks thunderstorm\r\nactivity, the convection has returned over and over again for the\r\npast day or so when we think it will not. I will then adopt the\r\nsecond option.\r\n\r\nStrong upper-level northerly winds are expected to continue\r\naffecting the circulation, and if the convection returns it will\r\nquickly be removed from the center. Therefore, Julia is forecast\r\nonce again to become a remnant low soon and gradually decay.\r\n\r\nJulia is drifting northwestward at about 3 kt embedded within very\r\nlight steering flow. Most of the global models keep a low meandering\r\nover water off the southeast U.S. coast, and so does the NHC\r\nforecast. Some global models actually regenerate the low, but given\r\nthe strong shear, this solution does not seem realistic.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 30.6N  76.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 30.9N  76.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 31.5N  77.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 32.0N  77.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 32.5N  77.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nSurprisingly, Julia is attempting a comeback. Thunderstorm activity\r\nhas fired near and southeast of the center, with the cyclone looking\r\nconsiderably better organized than any time in the last day or so.\r\nThe initial wind speed is kept at 25 kt in line with the TAFB\r\nsatellite classification.\r\n\r\nThe future of Julia looks less clear than it did yesterday.  While\r\nthere is currently strong shear affecting the cyclone, this shear\r\nis forecast to relax in about 24 hours as a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough moves over the southeastern United States.  Considering the\r\ncurrent appearance of Julia and the more favorable environment\r\nahead of it, Julia is no longer forecast to become a remnant low.\r\nInstead, a more likely scenario is that Julia holds its own or\r\nstrengthens some while it moves slowly northward near the Gulf\r\nStream. It is best to be conservative with the intensity forecast at\r\nthis stage, since this overnight convective trend could be\r\nmisleading. Nonetheless, the intensity forecast is raised from the\r\nprevious one, on the low side of the guidance near the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nJulia has started moving north-northwestward overnight at about 4\r\nkt. A slow motion toward the north is expected for the next couple\r\nof days while the cyclone moves between a weak west Atlantic\r\nsubtropical ridge and the southeastern United States trough.  The\r\nmodel guidance has shifted northward near the North Carolina\r\ncoast, although the GFDL and ECMWF remain offshore.  Given the\r\nuncertainty and continuity constraints, it would be preferable to\r\nwait another model cycle before making a larger northward change,\r\nand hence the current forecast is on the southern side of the\r\nguidance envelope. It would not be surprising if further northward\r\nchanges have to be made later today.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 31.3N  76.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 31.8N  77.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 32.4N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 33.3N  76.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 33.7N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 33.5N  77.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nAfter an early morning burst of deep convection, strong northerly\r\nshear and dry mid-level air have significantly weakened the\r\nconvection, leaving behind only shallow convection about 50-60 nmi\r\neast through southwest of the now fully exposed low-level\r\ncirculation center. The initial intensity is being held at 25 kt,\r\nwhich could be a little conservative, based on a TAFB satellite\r\nclassification of T1.5/25 kt.\r\n\r\nJulia has been drifting westward the past several hours, but a slow\r\nnorth-northwestward or northward motion is expected begin later\r\ntoday. This general motion is forecast to continue into Tuesday as a\r\nstrong shortwave trough currently over the central United States\r\nmoves quickly eastward, creating increasing southerly to\r\nsouthwesterly flow over the Carolinas. There are some notable\r\ndifferences between the models with the ECMWF forecasting Julia to\r\nweaken into a shallow remnant low and drift southwestward by 72\r\nhours, whereas the remainder of the global and regional models\r\nmaintain a somewhat deeper cyclone and lift it out poleward in the\r\ndeeper steering flow ahead of the aforementioned shortwave trough.\r\nThe NHC forecast track leans toward the model consensus and keeps\r\nJulia a little stronger and deeper, taking the cyclone northward and\r\nnear the coast of North Carolina by 48 hours. However, rapid\r\nweakening is likely by 72 hours due to strong southwesterly shear,\r\nleaving Julia as a remnant low near or over the coastal regions of\r\neastern North Carolina.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is a little tricky due to the rapidly\r\ndecreasing shear conditions that the models are forecasting to occur\r\nduring the next 24 hours or so. The current 25-30 kt of northerly\r\nvertical wind shear is expected to decrease to 10-15 kt from the\r\nsouthwest by Monday morning, which would support a repeat of strong\r\nconvective development and spinup of the vortex, similar to what\r\noccurred overnight, especially since Julia will be moving over the\r\nwarmer waters of the Gulf Stream at that time. The intensity\r\nforecast is identical to the previous advisory and remains on the\r\nlow side of the guidance near the LGEM model. However, due to the\r\npossibility of the cyclone being a little stronger than forecast,\r\nthe Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters have been tentatively tasked\r\nto investigate Julia tomorrow afternoon.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 31.8N  77.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 32.5N  77.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 33.4N  77.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 33.8N  77.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 34.2N  77.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 34.5N  77.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Julia","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nJulia's low-level circulation has continued to improve despite the\r\nlack of organized deep convection near the well-defined center.\r\nHowever, some tight curved banding features consisting of shallow to\r\nmoderate convection have developed within 100 nmi of the center\r\nduring the past few hours, a hint that the mid-level moisture is\r\nbeginning to increase. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on\r\non a TAFB intensity estimate of T1.5/25 kt, and a 1535Z ASCAT pass\r\nthat showed some surface winds near 25 kt just north of the center.\r\n\r\nJulia is moving northwestward or 330/06 kt. The cyclone is forecast\r\nto slow down and gradually turn toward the north-northwest and north\r\nlater tonight. A northward motion is then expected to persist, ahead\r\nof a strong shortwave trough that is forecast to move toward the\r\nwestern Carolinas, until Julia moves near or just onshore the the\r\nsoutheastern coast of North Carolina on Tuesday. After that time,\r\nit is uncertain whether or not a weakening Julia will lift out to\r\nthe northeast and merge with a frontal boundary, or drift\r\nsouthwestward as a remnant low. Regardless of the status of Julia by\r\n72 hours, the models are in good agreement that the system will not\r\nbe a tropical cyclone at that time or thereafter due to strong\r\nvertical wind shear and land interaction. The official track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, which is a compromise\r\nof the various global and regional model solutions.\r\n\r\nJulia has a narrow window of opportunity to strengthen tonight and\r\nMonday morning when the vertical wind shear is forecast to weaken\r\nsignificantly and the upper-level flow is expected to become more\r\nanticyclonic. These more conducive dynamics are forecast to coincide\r\nwith the nighttime convective maximum period and also during the\r\ntime when Julia will be over the Gulf Stream where SSTs are 29-30C.\r\nBuoy reports offshore the South Carolina coast indicate that surface\r\ndew points have increased to near 80F, a further indication that the\r\natmosphere surrounding Julia is becoming more conducive for\r\nregeneration of convection near the center later tonight. By Monday\r\nafternoon and evening, increasing southwesterly shear ahead of the\r\naforementioned shortwave trough should induce steady weakening,\r\nwhich is expected to continue as the cyclone approaches the coast\r\nof North Carolina. The intensity forecast remains unchanged is a\r\nlittle below the consensus model IVCN. However, due to the\r\npossibility that Julia could be a little stronger than currently\r\nexpected, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has\r\ntentatively been tasked to investigate the cyclone Monday afternoon.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Julia will be locally heavy rainfall from\r\neastern North Carolina northward to the Mid-Atlantic states and\r\nthe northeastern U.S. when moisture from the cyclone, or its\r\nremnants, will interact with an approaching frontal system.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 32.3N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 33.0N  78.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 34.0N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 34.6N  77.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 34.9N  77.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 34.2N  78.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Julia","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112016\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nStrong shear and dry mid-level air have continued to take a toll on\r\nJulia today.  The cyclone has become an exposed swirl of low clouds\r\ndevoid of significant deep convection for more than 12 hours. Based\r\non this, Julia is being designated a post-tropical remnant low, and\r\nthis will be the final NHC advisory on this system.  The initial\r\nwind speed is set to 25 kt, which is based on the earlier ASCAT\r\ndata, but this could be generous.  The cyclone may produce some\r\ndisorganized thunderstorms during the overnight convective maximum\r\nperiod, but increasing southwesterly shear on Monday should limit\r\nany organization or persistence of the activity.  The low should\r\ngradually spin down and dissipate in a couple of days.\r\n\r\nJulia is moving northwestward at about 6 kt.  A turn toward the\r\nnorth is expected overnight ahead of a shortwave trough moving into\r\nthe southeastern United States.  After that time, the remnant low\r\nis forecast to meander over eastern North Carolina until\r\ndissipation occurs.\r\n\r\nMoisture from the remnants of Julia are expected to interact\r\nwith a frontal boundary moving into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast\r\nUnited States.  This is likely to produce local heavy rainfall from\r\neastern North Carolina northward to the northeastern U.S. during\r\nthe next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 32.2N  78.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 33.2N  78.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 34.4N  77.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 34.9N  77.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 35.1N  77.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery, scatterometer data, and surface observations\r\nindicate that the low pressure area over the Cabo Verde Islands has\r\ndeveloped a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized\r\nconvection to be considered a tropical depression.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data along\r\nwith satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 300/12.  A low- to mid-level ridge should\r\nsteer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the\r\nforecast period, with some decrease in forward speed after 36 hours\r\nas the ridge weakens slightly.  The forecast track is near the\r\ncenter of the guidance envelope and close to the various consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nSome strengthening is expected during the next 12-24 hours.  After\r\nthat, the cyclone is likely to encounter strong westerly vertical\r\nwind shear while over sea surface temperatures of about 26C.  This\r\ncombination should lead to weakening, and the intensity forecast\r\nshows the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours.  Near\r\nthe end of the forecast period, the dynamical models diverge on the\r\nevolution of the upper-level winds, with the ECMWF and UKMET\r\nforecasting a more favorable pattern than the GFS. Based on this,\r\nthe forecast shows some re-intensification by 120 hours.  An\r\nalternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates to a tropical\r\nwave as forecast by the GFS.  Overall, the intensity forecast is on\r\nthe low side of the guidance in best agreement with the LGEM.\r\n\r\nLocally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible over the Cabo\r\nVerde Islands.  However, current indications are that the cyclone\r\nwill not reach tropical-storm strength until it has moved west of\r\nthe islands.  Therefore, watches and warnings are not required at\r\nthis time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 17.0N  25.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 17.5N  26.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 17.9N  29.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 17.9N  31.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 17.8N  34.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 17.5N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 17.5N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 18.0N  45.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression has not become better organized since the last\r\nadvisory, with the most concentrated convection now in a cluster\r\njust west of the estimated center position.  The initial intensity\r\nremains 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate\r\nfrom SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/13 kt.  A low- to\r\nmid-level ridge should steer the system west-northwestward and then\r\nwestward during the forecast period, with some decrease in forward\r\nspeed after 36-48 hours as the ridge weakens slightly.  The new\r\nforecast track is similar to, but a little north of, the previous\r\ntrack based on a slight northward shift in the track guidance.\r\n\r\nSome strengthening is expected during the next 12 hours or so. After\r\nthat, the cyclone will encounter strong westerly vertical wind shear\r\ncaused by a developing upper-level trough near and north of the\r\ncyclone.  This, combined with passage over sea-surface temperatures\r\nof about 26C-27C, should lead to weakening, and the intensity\r\nforecast shows the system weakening back to a depression by 36\r\nhours.  Near the end of the forecast period, the dynamical models\r\ncontinue to diverge on the evolution of the upper-level winds, with\r\nthe ECMWF and UKMET forecasting a more favorable ridge pattern near\r\nthe cyclone, whereas the GFS has an upper-level trough close by.\r\nBased on these conflicting models, the forecast leans toward the\r\nECMWF/UKMET scenario and shows some re-intensification by 120 hours.\r\nAn alternative scenario is that the cyclone degenerates into a broad\r\nlow pressure area or tropical wave as forecast by the GFS.  Overall,\r\nthe intensity forecast remains on the low side of the guidance in\r\nbest agreement with the LGEM.\r\n\r\nGusty winds remain possible over the Cabo Verde Islands tonight,\r\nwhereas locally heavy rains will remain possible through Thursday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 17.4N  26.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 17.9N  28.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 18.0N  30.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 18.1N  33.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 18.1N  35.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 18.0N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 17.5N  43.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 18.0N  47.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern of the depression has improved some since the\r\nprevious advisory with short curved bands having developed in all\r\nquadrants. In addition, the upper-level outflow has also improved\r\nand become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates range\r\nfrom 30 kt from TAFB and SAB, 37-41 kt in recent AMSU estimates, and\r\nan ADT value of T2.8/41 kt. Due to the lack of persistent inner-core\r\nconvection, the intensity is being maintained at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 280/12 kt.  A deep-layer ridge to the north\r\nof the cyclone is expected steer the system west-northwestward and\r\nthen westward during the next 48 hours, accompanied by some\r\ndecrease in forward speed as the ridge weakens slightly. By 72\r\nhours and beyond, the ridge is forecast to build southward slightly,\r\nforcing the cyclone on a west-southwestward track over warmer\r\nwaters. The new forecast track is basically just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models.\r\n\r\nSome strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours or so. After\r\nthat, the cyclone will encounter moderate to strong westerly\r\nvertical wind shear caused by a developing upper-level trough to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone.  The new intensity forecast continues to show\r\nthe system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. On days 4\r\nand 5, some slight re-strengthening is expected when the cyclone\r\nmoves over SSTs near 28 deg C and into more favorable mid- and\r\nupper-level environments as shown by the ECMWF and UKMET models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 17.6N  27.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 17.8N  29.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 18.0N  31.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 18.1N  34.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 17.9N  36.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 17.5N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 17.4N  44.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 17.9N  49.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nAMSR2 microwave data from a few hours ago indicated that the\r\ndepression's center was about a degree west of the deep convection\r\ndue to 20 kt of westerly shear.  Since the cyclone's structure has\r\nnot improved, and subjective Dvorak estimates have not changed from\r\nsix hours ago, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.  The westerly\r\nshear is expected to increase during the next 24 hours, and with a\r\nrelatively drier air mass surrounding the cyclone, any strengthening\r\nduring the next couple of days now appears less likely.  After 48\r\nhours, the shear is forecast to relax to some degree, but the global\r\nmodels disagree on exactly how much.  Nonetheless, if the depression\r\ncan survive the next couple of days, the environment should improve\r\nenough to allow for some strengthening by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The new NHC intensity forecast now holds the cyclone as a\r\n30-kt depression for the next 3 days, followed by slight\r\nstrengthening on days 4 and 5.  This forecast is in best agreement\r\nwith the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe microwave data indicate that the depression has been moving a\r\nlittle faster toward the west at 275/14 kt.  The Bermuda-Azores\r\nhigh is expected to steer the depression generally westward across\r\nthe tropical Atlantic during the entire 5-day forecast period.  A\r\nsouth-of-due-west motion is even possible on days 2 and 3,\r\nespecially if the cyclone remains weak.  With the exception of the\r\nGFDL, which shows more strengthening and is an outlier way to the\r\nnorth of the other models, the guidance envelope is relatively\r\ntight.  To account for the apparent north bias of the GFDL, the\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is a bit south of the TVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus.  The new forecast is also a little faster than and south\r\nof the previous forecast, especially on days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 17.6N  29.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 17.8N  31.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 18.0N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 17.9N  36.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 17.6N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 16.7N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 16.5N  49.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 17.0N  53.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images indicate that the depression has a rather\r\nimpressive low-level circulation, although all the deep convection\r\nis far removed from the center due to southwesterly shear.  Given\r\nsuch a well-defined circulation, the depression could have become a\r\ntropical storm overnight.  The initial wind speed, however, remains\r\n30 kt using a blend of the TAFB/SAB estimates with any of the more\r\nreliable ASCAT passes unfortunately missing the center during the\r\npast 18 hours.\r\n\r\nAn upper-level trough to the northwest of the cyclone is expected to\r\ncause an increase in shear during the next day or so, which will\r\nlikely cause the cyclone to weaken.  Beyond 48 hours, most of the\r\nmodels show the shear relaxing, with an upper-level high taking the\r\nplace of the trough, and the cyclone is forecast to move over warmer\r\nwaters.  This will probably promote a restrengthening trend,\r\nalthough guidance is in poor agreement on how much the winds could\r\nincrease.  Thus, the official forecast is reduced a little bit for\r\nFriday/Saturday due to the shear, then is the same as the previous\r\none, showing a slow restrengthening early next week. It is also\r\npossible the cyclone will degenerate into a remnant low for a while\r\ndue to the shear, although this isn't the likeliest scenario.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward at about 11 kt, and this general\r\nmotion should continue for a day or so while it moves around the\r\nAtlantic subtropical ridge.  This ridge is forecast by much of the\r\nguidance to strengthen and build westward, which would force the\r\ndepression to the west-southwest over the weekend.  Early next\r\nweek, the cyclone could begin to gain some latitude as it reaches\r\nthe southwestern periphery of the ridge.  Guidance is in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, except for the GFDL which appears to be\r\na northward outlier.  The official forecast track is very close to a\r\nblend of the other models in the TVCN consensus minus the GFDL, and\r\nis basically an update of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 17.7N  30.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 17.8N  32.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 17.9N  34.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 17.7N  37.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 17.4N  40.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 16.5N  45.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 16.7N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 17.5N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has redeveloped in the northeastern quadrant of the\r\ndepression, although it is still a good distance away from the\r\ncenter.  Consequently, Dvorak classifications are just about the\r\nsame as earlier, and the initial wind speed estimate is kept at 30\r\nkt.  Southwesterly wind shear is expected to continue for a day or\r\ntwo while the cyclone remains under the influence of an upper-level\r\ntrough.  This trough is then expected to be replaced by a ridge in a\r\ncouple of days, with generally lighter shear by early next week.\r\nWhile some weakening is still forecast, model guidance is in better\r\nagreement on the depression eventually reaching a more conducive\r\nenvironment for restrengthening, and the official intensity forecast\r\nis raised a bit in the long term.  This forecast could be\r\nconservative for next week if the rather conducive environments\r\nforecast by the ECMWF and UKMET models materialize.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone continues moving westward at 11 kt, and a west or\r\nwest-southwest motion is expected for the next few days while the\r\ndepression moves around a strengthening Atlantic subtropical ridge.\r\nThereafter, a turn to the west-northwest is forecast due to the\r\nsystem reaching the southwestern periphery of the ridge.  The model\r\nguidance has spread out some on this cycle, with the UKMET having\r\nshifted a fair distance north of its previous run.  A stronger\r\nsystem would probably turn a bit more to the west-northwest given\r\nthe forecast upper-level southeasterly winds.  Since the intensity\r\nprediction is higher than the last one, it makes sense to show the\r\ncyclone gaining some latitude by the end of the forecast period. The\r\nnew NHC forecast is adjusted to the north of the previous one, but\r\nstill lies on the southern side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 17.8N  31.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 17.9N  33.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 18.0N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 17.8N  38.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 17.5N  41.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 17.0N  46.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 17.5N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 18.5N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nDuring the past six hours, a significant increase in the amount and\r\nthe organization of the deep convection has occurred near and over\r\nthe well-defined low-level circulation center. The southwestern edge\r\nof the cold cloud canopy, characterized by tops as cold as -89C, has\r\ncontinued to expand southwestward over the center despite\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-25 kt. The initial intensity\r\nhas been increased to 40 kt based on a constrained Dvorak satellite\r\nestimate of 35 kt form TAFB, but with a data T-number of T3.0/45 kt\r\nusing a shear pattern. A 15/2247Z partial ASCAT-B pass indicated\r\nseveral 35-36 kt surface wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant\r\nmore than 60 nmi from the center. Based on continued improvement in\r\nthe satellite presentation since the ASCAT pass, the initial\r\nintensity is set at 40 kt, making Karl the eleventh named storm of\r\nthe season.\r\n\r\nKarl is moving westward or 275/11 kt. The cyclone is expected to\r\nmove westward and then west-southwestward around a strengthening\r\nAtlantic subtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours. After that\r\ntime, the ridge is forecast to weaken some, allowing Karl to turn\r\nback toward the west and then west-northwest by day 5. The new NHC\r\nforecast is essentially on top of the previous advisory track, and\r\nlies close to the multi-model consensus TVCX and the Florida State\r\nSuperensemble model.\r\n\r\nKarl is expected to remain in a moderate to strong vertical wind\r\nshear environment for the next 36 hours or so, which should inhibit\r\nsignificant intensification. After that time, however, the shear is\r\nforecast to decrease to around 5 kt for the remainder of the\r\n120-h period. That would normally result in more robust\r\nstrengthening while the cyclone is moving over 28-29C SSTs.\r\nHowever, Karl will also be moving through a very dry mid-level\r\nmoisture regime during that time, so the intensification trend is\r\nforecast to be much slower than the climatological rate of 20 kt\r\nper day, and lies close to the SHIPS intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nThe large 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern quadrant is based on\r\nthe aforementioned ASCAT wind data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 17.9N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 18.0N  34.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 18.0N  37.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 17.8N  39.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 17.5N  42.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 17.1N  47.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 17.8N  52.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 19.0N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nWater vapor satellite imagery indicates that Karl is moving directly\r\ntoward the base of a mid-/upper-level trough while being affected by\r\nat least 20 kt of westerly shear.  A recent SSMIS microwave pass\r\nshowed that the deep convection remains displaced to the northeast\r\nof the center.  Since the structure of the cyclone has not changed\r\nsince the last advisory, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe SSMIS data indicated that the center has moved a little north of\r\nprevious position estimates, and the initial motion is now 280/11\r\nkt.  Karl may gain a little more latitude during the next 12-24\r\nhours, but after that time a strong subtropical ridge is expected to\r\nforce the cyclone to move south of due west or possibly west-\r\nsouthwestward between 36-48 hours.  Once it reaches the western\r\nportion of the ridge and intensifies, Karl is likely to again gain\r\nsome latitude, turning west-northwestward by days 4 and 5.  The\r\ntrack models all agree on this scenario and keep Karl well to the\r\neast and northeast of the Leeward Islands during the five-day\r\nforecast period.  Mainly because of the adjustment in the initial\r\nposition, the new NHC track forecast is a little north of the\r\nprevious forecast, and it lies closest to an average of the GFS and\r\nECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nStrong to moderate vertical shear is expected to persist for the\r\nnext 24-36 hours, and little to no change in strength is anticipated\r\nduring that time.  Even after 36 hours, Karl will be moving through\r\na dry environment over the central tropical Atlantic, but lower\r\nshear and warming sea surface temperatures could allow for at least\r\ngradual strengthening.  The intensity models have trended a little\r\nbit higher at the end of the forecast period, and the new NHC\r\nforecast shows Karl potentially reaching hurricane intensity by day\r\n5.  This forecast is very close to the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe initial 12-ft sea radii have been expanded considerably on this\r\nadvisory based on recent altimeter wave height data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 18.3N  33.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 18.7N  35.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 18.7N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 18.3N  40.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 17.7N  43.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 17.6N  48.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 19.0N  53.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 21.5N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nKarl remains a sheared tropical cyclone this morning with all\r\nof its deep convection in the northeastern quadrant due to shear\r\nrelated to its interaction with a mid- to upper-level trough.  The\r\ninitial wind speed is kept at 40 kt for this advisory, a compromise\r\nbetween lower Dvorak estimates and higher, but noisy, scatterometer\r\nvalues.   Vertical shear is expected to decrease in about 36 hours,\r\nand, despite a somewhat dry environment, warming sea surface\r\ntemperatures should allow for at least gradual strengthening.  The\r\nintensity models continue to trend higher at the end of the\r\nforecast period, and the official forecast follows this trend.  This\r\nforecast is remains close to the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe center of Karl has become a little distorted due to the shear\r\nand convection, but it still seems to be moving about 280/11.\r\nKarl is forecast to turn more to the west and south-of-west this\r\nweekend as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of the\r\ncyclone. However, the current interaction of Karl with the mid- to\r\nupper-level trough has not been well forecast, and Karl probably\r\nwill not get as far to the south as expected yesterday. In a few\r\ndays, the storm should move to the west-northwest and eventually\r\nmore to northwest around day 5 as it reaches the edge of the ridge.\r\nThe new forecast is close to a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, plus\r\ntheir respective ensemble means, ending up a little north of the\r\nprevious NHC prediction at long range.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 18.4N  34.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 18.5N  36.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 18.4N  38.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 17.9N  41.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 17.7N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 18.3N  49.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 20.0N  54.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 22.5N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nConvection is quite strong in the northeastward quadrant of Karl,\r\nalthough the center has recently become exposed due to\r\nmoderate-to-strong westerly shear.  There has been little\r\nchange to the overall satellite presentation in the past several\r\nhours, and the initial wind speed is kept at 40 kt.  A continuation\r\nof the shear is forecast to keep Karl from strengthening much over\r\nthe next day or two. This shear is forecast to relax by all of the\r\nmodels by early next week, and some strengthening should then take\r\nplace while Karl moves over warmer waters.  The amount of\r\nintensification is a big question mark, with the GFS/ECMWF now\r\nshowing only a weaker tropical storm, while the rest of the standard\r\nintensity guidance (HWRF, GFDL, SHIPS and LGEM models) have Karl as\r\na hurricane by the end of the period.  Because of the uncertainty,\r\nthe intensity forecast is kept the same as the previous one, not too\r\nfar from the model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 280/12.\r\nModel guidance has made a large northward shift today due to the\r\nforecasted interaction of a mid/upper-level trough with Karl over\r\nthe next few days.  Initially, the tropical cyclone was expected to\r\nbe on the western side of the trough, which would have helped steer\r\nthe cyclone more to the west-southwest over the next couple of\r\ndays.  However, almost all of the guidance now show the trough\r\nstaying to the west of Karl, which would impart a west or\r\nwest-northwest motion during that time.  The lack of a\r\nwest-southwest track has large implications down the line, with the\r\ncyclone gaining a lot more latitude since Karl is closer to a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge.  Continuity dictates that the\r\nNHC forecast not be shifted as much as the guidance suggests for\r\nthis package, since the guidance could still shift back to the\r\nsouth.  A large northward adjustment is made to the NHC forecast at\r\nall times, but it remains south of the model consensus and the\r\nECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 18.8N  35.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 19.0N  37.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 19.0N  39.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 19.0N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 19.0N  45.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 20.0N  50.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 22.0N  55.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 25.0N  60.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nThe deep convection with Karl is limited to the northeastern\r\nquadrant because of the 20 kt westerly vertical shear currently\r\nafflicting the tropical storm.  Despite this, a 0007 UTC ASCAT\r\nscatterometer pass indicated maximum winds of about 40 kt, which is\r\nthe initial intensity.\r\n\r\nKarl should continue to struggle for the next day or so due to the\r\nhostile vertical shear.  The shear should relax as Karl reaches the\r\nwest side of an upper-level trough in about 36 to 48 hours.  From\r\nthat point in time onward, Karl should be experiencing more\r\nconducive conditions: gradually warming SSTs, a moist low to middle\r\ntroposphere, and low vertical shear.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nfor Karl to weaken slightly within the next day and then steadily\r\nstrengthen starting in about two days onward.  This is quite\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and is based upon the IVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.  However, confidence in Karl actually\r\nbecoming a hurricane in five days is low because of the spread in\r\nthe guidance.\r\n\r\nKarl is moving toward the west at 13 kt.  The Bermuda-Azores\r\nhigh will be building in north of the tropical storm, helping to\r\npropel Karl on a general westward track for the next couple of\r\ndays.  Beginning in about three days, Karl will reach the western\r\nperiphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and bend toward the\r\nwest-northwest.  The reliable track models have substantial spread\r\n- especially during days one to three - with some solutions\r\nshowing a west-southwesterly track, which is rarely seen in\r\nthis part of the Atlantic basin.  The NHC track forecast is\r\nslightly south of the previous advisory, and is based upon\r\nthe TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial size of Karl is determined by the recent scatterometer\r\npass, which showed a large area of tropical-storm-force winds in the\r\nnorthern semicircle, but none to the south.  The NHC wind radii\r\nforecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 18.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 18.5N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 18.5N  41.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 18.5N  44.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 18.5N  46.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 20.0N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 22.0N  57.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 25.0N  61.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nKarl is maintaining the status quo with its center at least 120\r\nn mi to the southwest of the deep convection.  Since the ASCAT pass\r\nfrom last evening showed a sizable area of 35-40 kt winds, and the\r\nDvorak estimates have been steady, the initial intensity remains 40\r\nkt.  Karl is located just to the south of an upper-level low, and\r\nthe resultant westerly shear should gradually relax and change\r\ndirection during the next few days once Karl moves away from this\r\nfeature.  Sea surface temperatures will be steadily increasing along\r\nKarl's forecast path, and mid-tropospheric moisture may begin to\r\nincrease after 48 hours.  Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast\r\ncontinues to call for little change in intensity during the next 48\r\nhours, followed by steady strengthening from day 3 to day 5.  This\r\nforecast closely follows an average of the SHIPS and LGEM models\r\nand still allows for the possibility of Karl becoming a hurricane\r\nby day 5.\r\n\r\nThere is no doubt that the center of Karl has been losing latitude\r\nduring the past 6-12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is\r\n265/12 kt.  A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge over the central\r\nAtlantic is expected to continue pushing Karl south of due west\r\nduring the next 36 hours.  After that time, Karl will begin to\r\napproach a weakness in the ridge located over the western Atlantic,\r\nand the tropical cyclone is forecast to move west-northwestward on\r\ndays 3-5 well to the northeast of the Leeward Islands.  Although\r\nthere is some uncertainty on how far south Karl will get before it\r\nturns west-northwestward, the spread among the track models is\r\nactually quite small.  The updated NHC track forecast essentially\r\nlies along the TVCN multi-model consensus line, which ends up being\r\na little south and west of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 18.2N  38.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 18.1N  40.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 17.9N  42.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 17.6N  45.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 17.8N  47.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 19.4N  53.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 22.0N  58.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 24.5N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nKarl has been in a fairly steady state during the past day or more\r\nwith convection periodically firing near the center and a larger\r\narea of more continuous thunderstorms far from the center.  Ship\r\nBATFR18 reported sustained winds of about 40 kt at 1100 UTC, which\r\nsupport keeping that wind speed for this advisory.  The shear that\r\nhas been affecting Karl should gradually diminish over the next\r\ncouple of days as it moves away from a nearby upper-level low.  A\r\nsmall amount of weakening is possible in the short term since the\r\nsystem is still struggling against the shear. Thereafter,\r\nstrengthening is anticipated due to Karl likely moving over\r\nvery warm waters concurrent with rather light shear. One question\r\nmark is the amount of available moisture in the mid-levels, with\r\nboth the ECMWF and the GFS showing a somewhat dry environment. While\r\na lot of the tropical-cyclone-specific intensity guidance shows a\r\nhurricane at long range, the marginal moisture environment forecast\r\nby those two global models makes me think twice about going too\r\nhigh.  The new forecast is very similar to the previous one and is\r\nsimilar to a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM models.\r\n\r\nKarl has been wobbling a little south of due west during the day,\r\ndepending on how much convection is near the center. A strengthening\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to\r\ncontinue pushing Karl south of due west during the next 24 hours.\r\nAfter that time, Karl should move more to the west-northwest around\r\nthe weakening ridge through day 4, well to the northeast of the\r\nLeeward Islands, and possibly turn northwestward by 120 hours while\r\nthe cyclone approaches a weakness in the ridge.  The spread in the\r\nmodels have increased since the last advisory, perhaps due to Karl's\r\ninteraction with the upper-low. The new model consensus and the\r\nprevious official forecast were very close to one another, so no\r\nsignificant changes are made in the new NHC forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 18.3N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 18.1N  40.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 17.8N  43.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 17.8N  46.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 18.3N  48.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 20.2N  54.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 22.5N  59.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 25.0N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nConvection continues to flare up and down near the center of Karl,\r\nwith a larger mass well to the northeast of the center.  In\r\naddition, the circulation looks more elongated than earlier today,\r\nperhaps due to the convective asymmetry.  The initial wind speed is\r\nheld at 40 kt since the system does not look all that different,\r\nalthough the satellite classifications are a bit lower.\r\n\r\nKarl could still weaken a little bit in the short term while the\r\ncyclone is in a recovery stage from its interaction with an\r\nupper-level low. Gradual strengthening is then forecast by early\r\nnext week as the storm encounters very warm water, low shear, and a\r\nmarginal moisture environment.  Model guidance is very similar to\r\nthe previous cycle, except for the ECMWF which shows a more powerful\r\ncyclone by day 5.  Very little change was made to the official\r\nforecast, which continues to be most similar to a blend of the\r\nSHIPS/LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is unchanged from the previous one,\r\n265/11.  Karl should begin to gain some latitude by Monday as it\r\nmoves around the southern side of the subtropical ridge.  A\r\nwest-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday due to\r\nthe orientation of the ridge, and this motion could continue for\r\nthe rest of the 5-day period.  The biggest change since the last\r\ncycle is that model guidance is showing a stronger ridge in the\r\ncentral Atlantic, which would prolong the west-northwestward\r\nmotion.  The track models have shifted westward at long range, and\r\nthe official forecast is moved in that direction, but not as far\r\nwest as the 12Z ECMWF/GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 18.1N  40.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.9N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 17.8N  45.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 18.1N  47.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 18.8N  50.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 20.6N  55.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 23.0N  60.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 25.0N  64.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nKarl continues to struggle.  The tropical storm is producing a few\r\npatches of deep convection to the north and east of the exposed\r\ncenter, but the cyclone lacks banding features.  An ASCAT-B pass\r\njust prior to 0000Z captured a portion of the circulation and showed\r\nthat the winds were lower there than they were in the previous pass.\r\nBased on that data and the Dvorak classifications, the initial wind\r\nspeed is lowered a little to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe poor structure of Karl is likely due to the combined effects of\r\nsouthwesterly shear and dry mid-level air.  These unfavorable\r\natmospheric conditions and marginally warm sea surface temperatures\r\nshould keep Karl relatively steady state for the next day or so.\r\nAfter that time, lower shear, slightly more moisture, and warmer sea\r\nsurface temperatures should allow the cyclone to strengthen.  The\r\nintensity models are a bit higher this cycle at the longer range,\r\nand the NHC forecast has been nudged upward.  This prediction lies\r\nnear the lower end of the guidance, in best agreement with the SHIPS\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nThe center of Karl is moving south of due west at about 10 kt.  A\r\ngeneral westward motion at a slightly faster pace is expected\r\nduring the next day or two while Karl is steered by the flow on the\r\nsouth side of a subtropical ridge.  A turn to the west-northwest is\r\npredicted beyond a couple of days as Karl moves on the southwestern\r\nperiphery of the ridge and toward a weakness.  There is not a\r\nsignificant amount of spread in the models, or the ensemble members\r\nof the GFS and ECMWF, and the official forecast is largely an\r\nupdate of the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 17.8N  41.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 17.9N  43.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 18.1N  46.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 18.6N  48.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 19.4N  51.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 21.2N  56.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 23.7N  61.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 25.8N  65.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nThe structure of Karl has kept a similar appearance for some time\r\nnow with a small area of convection flaring up and down near the\r\ncenter, with a larger mass of thunderstorms following the center in\r\nthe northeastern quadrant.  The initial wind speed is held at 35 kt\r\nusing the last TAFB satellite estimate.\r\n\r\nKarl's disorganized low-level structure will likely prevent much\r\nintensification in the short term.  However the environment\r\nnear the tropical cyclone is likely to become conducive for\r\nstrengthening within a couple of days due to lower shear, slightly\r\nmore moisture, and warmer sea surface temperatures.  The intensity\r\nguidance is very similar to the previous model cycle, and only\r\nsmall changes were made to the previous NHC wind speed forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 255/10.  A large subtropical high\r\nover the central Atlantic should provide a fairly well-defined\r\nsteering current for the tropical storm over the next several days.\r\nThis ridge will likely turn Karl to the west later today and to the\r\nwest-northwest by early Tuesday through the end of the period.\r\nOther than a small westward adjustment through 72 hours, the new\r\nNHC track is similar to the previous one, near a model consensus\r\nfavoring the faster GFS/ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 17.7N  42.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 17.7N  44.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 18.0N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 18.6N  49.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 19.3N  52.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 21.5N  57.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 23.9N  62.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 26.5N  66.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nThe overall appearance of Karl has changed little in satellite\r\nimagery since the previous advisory.  However, recent water vapor\r\nimagery suggest that the strong southwesterly shear that has been\r\nplaguing the cyclone for the past few days is beginning to relax.\r\nThe initial wind speed is held at 35 kt based on a TAFB satellite\r\nestimate of T2.5/35 kt.  Ship BATFR18, which has been skirting the\r\neastern portion of Karl's circulation the past 12 hours, has\r\nreported winds as high as 32 kt.  That data has been helpful in\r\ndetermining the extent of the 34-kt wind radius in the northeastern\r\nquadrant.\r\n\r\nKarl has trended westward and the initial motion estimate is now\r\n270/11 kt.  A deep-layer subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic\r\nto the north of Karl is expected to keep the cyclone moving in a\r\ngeneral westward direction for the next 48 hours or so, followed by\r\nwest-northwestward motion during the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory, and lies close to the various consensus model solutions.\r\n\r\nAlthough Karl's convective pattern is currently somewhat disheveled\r\ndue to the hostile shear and dry mid-level conditions that the\r\ncyclone has been encountering the past several days, the surface\r\nwind field has remained remarkably robust, including a tight\r\ninner-core.  The GFS and ECMWF models are forecasting the vertical\r\nwind shear to decrease to less than 5 kt from 24-120 hours, which\r\nfavors a strengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving\r\n29-30C SSTs during that time.  However, only a marginally moist\r\nmid-level environment is expected, a condition that could slow down\r\nthe intensification process.  The official intensity forecast\r\nfollows the trend of the previous advisory, showing gradual\r\nstrengthening throughout the forecast period, and remains on the\r\nconservative side close to the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 18.0N  43.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.2N  45.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 18.6N  48.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 19.3N  50.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 20.2N  53.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 22.3N  58.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 24.7N  63.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 27.3N  66.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has gradually been increasing and becoming a little\r\nbetter organized since the previous advisory now that light\r\nupper-level southeasterly flow has replaced the previous hostile\r\nvertical wind shear conditions. Visible satellite imagery and ASCAT\r\nsurface wind data from 1200Z-1300Z indicate that Karl's circulation\r\nremains well-defined, especially the inner-core wind field. The\r\nASCAT data also revealed a large patch of 35-kt winds 60-100 nmi\r\nnorth and northeast of the center, and that is the intensity used\r\nfor this advisory. The ASCAT data supports trimming back the 34-kt\r\nwind radius in the northeastern quadrant.\r\n\r\nKarl continues to move westward or 275/13 kt. Karl is expected to\r\nmove westward along the southern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores\r\nridge for the next couple of days, followed by a west-northwestward\r\nmotion on days 3-5 as the cyclone approaches a weakness in the ridge\r\nlocated between Bermuda and the Bahamas. The global and regional\r\nmodels are in general agreement on this track scenario through 72\r\nhours, After that time, the models diverge significantly with the\r\nGFS, Navy COAMPS, and GFDL models taking Karl farther west as a\r\nweaker and more shallow cyclone, whereas the ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF\r\nmodels move Karl more northwestward as a stronger and deeper system.\r\nFor now, the official forecast track remains a compromise between\r\nthese extremes, close to the consensus model solutions, due to the\r\nlack of a stable, consistent run-to-run forecast by the models.\r\n\r\nThe GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast the vertical wind\r\nshear to decrease to less than 10 kt from now through the end of the\r\nforecast period, with near-zero shear values occuring at times\r\nbetween 72-120 hours. Such low shear values continue to favor a\r\nstrengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving over 30C\r\nSSTs by days 4 and 5.  However, a somewhat dry mid-level environment\r\nis expected to temper the intensification process a little due to\r\noccasional intrusions of dry air into the inner-core region of\r\nKarl's circulation. Once the cyclone develops an eye feature, then\r\nstrengthening will become more robust due to the low wind shear\r\nconditions and high sea-surface temperatures. Since these\r\nparameters can not be forecast very far in advance, the official\r\nintensity forecast continues to show slow strengthening throughout\r\nthe period and remains close to the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 18.3N  45.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 18.5N  47.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 19.0N  49.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 19.7N  52.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 20.5N  54.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 22.9N  59.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 25.4N  64.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 28.0N  67.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nKarl is a poorly organized tropical storm.  Satellite data indicate\r\nthat the low-level center is exposed to the southwest of a few\r\npatches of deep convection.  The initial intensity is again held at\r\n35 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak\r\nclassification from TAFB.  The cyclone continues to struggle in an\r\nenvironment of southwesterly shear and dry air.  In fact, total\r\nprecipitable water imagery shows dry air wrapping around the west\r\nand south sides of the circulation.  The models indicate that the\r\nshear should lower on Monday, and remain relatively light during the\r\nnext several days.  Since Karl is expected to track over\r\nprogressively warmer waters, between 28-30 deg C, and move into a\r\nmore conducive atmospheric environment, strengthening seems likely.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one,\r\nbut it is a touch lower at the 12-h point given the current poor\r\ninitial structure of Karl. This forecast is in best agreement with\r\nthe SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nThe system is moving westward at 13 kt, and that general motion\r\nshould continue for the next 12-24 hours as Karl remains on the\r\nsouth side of a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.  A\r\nwest-northwestward motion is expected to begin by Monday night,\r\nfollowed by a turn to the northwest by mid-week when the cyclone\r\nmoves toward a weakness in the ridge.  Although the models\r\nagree on the overall scenario, there is a fair amount of spread by\r\nthe end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is slightly\r\nfaster than the model consensus, giving a little more weight to the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 18.3N  46.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 18.5N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.1N  50.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 19.8N  53.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 20.7N  55.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 23.1N  60.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 26.5N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 28.8N  66.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nKarl continues to have a rather disorganized appearance in satellite\r\nimagery.  The cloud pattern consists of a relatively small mass of\r\nconvection northeast of the center, with a separate shapeless\r\ncluster of convection farther to the northeast.  The initial\r\nintensity estimate is held at 35 kt in accordance with the Dvorak CI\r\nnumber from TAFB.\r\n\r\nKarl's current poor structure, proximity to an upper tropospheric\r\nlow near the Lesser Antilles, and large-scale subsidence/convergence\r\nover the tropical Atlantic suggest that the storm should only slowly\r\nstrengthen during the next couple of days.  The intensity forecast\r\nhas been modified downward a bit further to reflect the likelihood\r\nof a slower intensification.  After 72 hours, a notable increase in\r\nmoisture, waters of around 30 deg C, and low shear should promote\r\nstrengthening, perhaps more than indicated in this forecast.  The\r\nintensity forecast during this time has been increased over the\r\nprevious one, and is closest to the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/13. Karl should remain on the\r\nsouth and southwest side of a subtropical ridge the next couple of\r\ndays, with the flow around this feature steering the cyclone\r\nwestward and then west-northwestward.  From days 3-5, Karl will\r\nencounter a weakness in the ridge over the west-central Atlantic,\r\nwhich should cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward\r\nwith a substantial decrease in forward speed.  The new track\r\nforecast is nudged to the south of the previous one through 48\r\nhours, with more emphasis put on the weaker GFS solution.  The track\r\nforecast from days 3-5 has been adjusted to the east of the previous\r\none, and is consistent with the expectation of stronger cyclone as\r\ndepicted in the ECWMF solution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 18.2N  47.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 18.6N  49.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 19.1N  52.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 19.9N  54.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 21.0N  57.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 24.0N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 27.0N  65.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 29.5N  65.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM AST MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery shows Karl consists of a swirl of low\r\nclouds with nearly all of the associated deep convection located to\r\nthe northeast of the exposed low-level center.  The structure has\r\nchanged relatively little from six hours ago, and the initial wind\r\nspeed remains 35 kt based on the Dvorak Current Intensity estimate\r\nfrom TAFB.\r\n\r\nKarl is still being affected by 10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical\r\nshear, and with the mid-level relative humidity in the surrounding\r\nenvironment only 40-50 percent, the cyclone continues to struggle\r\nto produce deep convection near its center and over the western\r\npart of the circulation.  However, the SHIPS guidance indicates\r\nthat the shear should continue to decrease during the next few\r\ndays, and mid-level moisture is likely to increase over 60 percent\r\nby day 3.  Therefore, only slight strengthening is anticipated\r\nduring the next 48 hours, but that should be followed by quicker\r\nintensification on days 3-5, with Karl still expected to reach\r\nhurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period.  The updated\r\nofficial intensity forecast is very close to the SHIPS guidance for\r\nthe entire forecast period, and it is just slightly below the\r\nprevious forecast after 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is just a little slower at 275/11 kt.  Karl's\r\nwestward motion is the result of it being positioned south of the\r\nBermuda-Azores high.  However, the cyclone is expected to reach a\r\nbreak in the ridge located over the western Atlantic in a few days,\r\nwhich will cause it to turn northwestward by day 3 and then\r\nnorthward by day 5.  The track models are tightly clustered through\r\nday 3 before Karl makes its turn, but there is more spread on days\r\n4 and 5 regarding where the turn will occur.  The GFS and GFS\r\nensemble mean both take Karl farther west before it turns toward\r\nthe north, while the bulk of the other models make the turn east of\r\nthe previous forecast track.  For the sake of continuity, the\r\nupdated official track forecast is very similar to the previous\r\nforecast, and it lies relatively close to a consensus of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 18.6N  48.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 18.9N  50.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 19.5N  52.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 20.4N  55.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 21.6N  57.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 24.5N  62.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 27.5N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 29.5N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Karl has increased during the day,\r\nand the low-level center is now embedded beneath the convective\r\ncanopy.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB increased to\r\nT2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt, respectively, but these numbers do not\r\nyet support an increase in the initial intensity of 35 kt that has\r\nbeen carried in the previous few advisories.  SHIPS and UW-CIMSS\r\nshear analyses indicate that the southwesterly shear over Karl\r\nremains 10-15 kt.  However, the guidance shows the shear decreasing,\r\nand the improving structure of Karl suggests that this may be\r\nalready occurring.  In addition, moisture in the middle levels of\r\nthe atmosphere is expected to gradually increase, and SSTs will be\r\nbetween 28-30C for the next five days.  All these ingredients\r\nsuggest that strengthening is likely, and the official forecast\r\ncontinues to show intensification starting slowly at first and then\r\nbecoming faster after 48 hours.  This forecast is very close to a\r\nconsensus of the SHIPS and LGEM models, and the new official\r\nforecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe center of Karl jogged northwestward during the day, and the\r\nlong-term motion estimate is now west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt.\r\nA west-northwestward motion is expected to continue for the next\r\ncouple of days while Karl moves along the southern edge of the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  After that time, Karl is forecast to reach the\r\nwestern edge of the ridge and should turn northward and then\r\nnortheastward on days 4 and 5.  There is still some spread among\r\nthe track models when this turn is forecast to occur, and as a\r\nresult there is a lot of uncertainty on how much Karl will affect\r\nBermuda toward the end of the forecast period.  Still, the overall\r\nguidance envelope has not shifted much, and the updated official\r\nforecast is very close to the previous one.  This forecast is close\r\nto the various consensus models, but it should be noted that the\r\nGFS, GFS ensemble mean, and Florida Superensemble all show Karl\r\nmoving farther west before making the northward turn.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 19.3N  49.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 19.8N  51.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 20.6N  53.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 21.6N  56.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 22.9N  58.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 25.9N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 29.0N  65.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 31.0N  63.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg/Petersen/Chenard\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nKarl is a little better organized tonight.  An area of deep\r\nconvection has been persisting during the past several hours, and\r\nmicrowave images indicate that the center is located near the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the convective area.  The initial wind speed\r\nis nudged upward to 40 kt, following a blend of the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nKarl is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and it is being steered\r\nby the flow on the south side of a high pressure system over the\r\nsubtropical Atlantic.  The tropical cyclone is expected to move near\r\nthe southwestern periphery of the high in a couple of days and then\r\nhead toward a pronounced weakness in the ridge over the western\r\nAtlantic. This change in the steering pattern should result in Karl\r\nturning northwestward in about 48 hours, with a gradual turn to the\r\nnorth and northeast expected in 4 to 5 days.  Although the models\r\nagree on the overall theme, there is a fair amount of spread in the\r\nguidance associated with where and when Karl begins to recurve. The\r\nNHC official track forecast is near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope, and is in best agreement with the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear that has been affecting Karl for the past\r\nseveral days appears to be letting up some, and the SHIPS model\r\nsuggests that shear should be generally light during the next 5\r\ndays. In addition, Karl is currently over SSTs of around 28 deg C,\r\nand it is expected to move over even warmer waters throughout the\r\nforecast period.  The one unfavorable parameter for intensification\r\nis the dry mid-level environment surrounding the tropical storm,\r\nbut some of the guidance suggests that the air mass could moisten\r\nahead of the system later this week. Based on these large scale\r\nconditions, slow strengthening seems likely during the next day or\r\nso, followed by a faster rate of intensification thereafter.  The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, but is on\r\nthe conservative side of the guidance at the longer range forecast\r\npoints.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 19.7N  50.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 20.4N  52.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 21.3N  54.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 22.4N  57.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 23.9N  59.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 26.7N  63.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 29.5N  64.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 32.3N  60.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nKarl's satellite appearance late yesterday gave the impression that\r\nit had increased some in organization, with the low-level center\r\npartially underneath a large mass of deep convection.  Since that\r\ntime, the low-level center appears to have outrun the convection,\r\nbecoming exposed well to the west of the remnant convective mass\r\nwhose cloud top temperatures have warmed significantly.  The cloud\r\npattern is typical of a tropical cyclone undergoing significant\r\nwesterly shear.  Dvorak classifications have decreased to T2.5 from\r\nTAFB and SAB, and on this basis, the initial intensity estimate is\r\nlowered to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a faster and a more westerly 290/15.  Karl\r\nshould continue to be steered generally west-northwestward around\r\nthe southwestern periphery of well-defined low- to mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge over the central Atlantic during the next couple\r\nof days.  The cyclone should move into weakness in the ridge along\r\n65W in 48 to 72 hours, which should result in a gradual turn toward\r\nthe north with a considerable decrease in forward speed by day 4.\r\nAround 96 hours, Karl should become susceptible to the mid-latitude\r\nwesterly flow after it crosses 30N as it begins to undergo a sharp\r\nrecurvature.  The models vary tremendously on how quickly Karl will\r\nrecurve by day 5, with the GFS-based guidance whisking the cyclone\r\nrapidly northeastward in response to a deep-layer trough moving\r\nthrough the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada. The\r\nECMWF and the majority of its ensemble members show Karl lagging way\r\nbehind before being ejected northeastward by a slowly amplifying\r\ntrough.  The new track forecast is shifted to the left and\r\nis slightly faster through day 3, largely because of the initial\r\nre-positioning of the cyclone.  After that time, a compromise\r\nbetween the much faster GFS-based guidance and the ECMWF results in\r\na slower and somewhat more eastward forecast track.\r\n\r\nKarl can be seen approaching an upper-tropospheric cold low in water\r\nvapor imagery.  The unfavorable juxtaposition of Karl and this\r\nfeature should not result in much intensification for about the next\r\n36 hours, since the flow over Karl is convergent and there is some\r\ndeep-layer westerly shear.  This is the rationale for keeping the\r\nshort-term intensity forecast low.  By 48 hours and beyond, the\r\nshear is forecast to have finally decreased while the cyclone\r\nreaches near 30 deg C waters, and intensification is likely.  With\r\nthe flow becoming increasingly divergent over Karl around the time\r\nit recurves in 3 to 4 days, the intensification could occur more\r\nrapidly than this forecast indicates, and there is some chance that\r\nKarl could become a major hurricane.  Late in the period, increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear could become a mitigating factor and the\r\nintensity is shown to be leveling off by day 5.  The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is a little lower than the multi-model consensus\r\ninitially and about the same or a little lower at days 3-5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 20.2N  52.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 20.9N  54.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 21.7N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 23.0N  59.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 24.7N  61.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 27.4N  64.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 30.3N  64.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 34.0N  57.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nKarl's center remains exposed to the southwest of the deep\r\nconvection, as it appears that the cyclone has been unable to\r\nescape the influence of a mid-/upper-level low to its west.  Dvorak\r\nCurrent Intensity estimates remain 3.0 from TAFB and 2.5 from SAB,\r\nand the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T2.5.  The initial\r\nintensity is therefore held at 35 kt.\r\n\r\nSHIPS and UW-CIMSS shear analyses indicate that the vertical shear\r\nthat has been affecting Karl has not yet decreased, but it is now\r\nsoutherly at around 15 kt.  The global models continue to indicate\r\nthat the shear should decrease during the next few days, but this\r\nprobably won't happen until Karl becomes more separated from the\r\nupper-level low.  The thermodynamic environment has improved\r\nslightly since yesterday, as the cyclone appears to be associated\r\nwith a large moisture envelope with mid-level relative humidities\r\nincreasing into the 50 percent range.  Little change in strength is\r\nlikely during the next 24 hours, but after that time intensification\r\nis expected due to warm SSTs, more moisture, and lower shear.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast continues to show Karl as a hurricane in\r\nthe 3-5 day range, but the updated forecast has been nudged downward\r\nslightly based on the latest guidance.  The new forecast is very\r\nclose to SHIPS guidance and is near the upper end of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nKarl's center has been straddling the 20th parallel, but the\r\n12-hour motion estimate is 275/15 kt.  Karl should be reaching the\r\nwestern extent of the subtropical high during the next 48 hours,\r\nand its motion should therefore turn northwestward by day 2 and\r\nthen northward by day 4.  After that time, the cyclone is expected\r\nto accelerate toward the northeast when it gets picked up by the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies ahead of a trough.  The cross-track spread\r\nin the guidance has decreased since yesterday for the time period\r\nwhen Karl recurves, although there are significant speed\r\ndifferences after recurvature.  Most notably, the ECMWF is\r\nsignificantly slower than the other models and doesn't show Karl\r\nbeing picked up as quickly by the mid-latitude trough.  To split\r\nthe difference, the updated track forecast is very similar to the\r\nprevious one and is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 20.0N  54.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 20.7N  56.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 21.9N  58.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 23.5N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 25.1N  62.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 27.6N  65.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 31.0N  63.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 36.5N  54.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg/Krekeler\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nKarl's center had lost some definition throughout the day, but deep\r\nconvection has redeveloped near the center late in the afternoon.\r\nDvorak Current Intensity estimates were lowered to 2.5 from TAFB and\r\n2.0 from SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate is T3.2. A NOAA\r\nP-3 flight currently conducting a research mission into Karl has\r\nnot yet found tropical-storm-force winds, but it has not sampled\r\nthe entire circulation yet. The initial intensity is therefore held\r\nat 35 kt pending additional data from the P-3. The minimum pressure\r\nis lowered to 1005 mb based on dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV\r\njet, which is also flying near Karl.\r\n\r\nLittle to no change is expected in the strength of Karl over the\r\nnext 24 hours as the influence of an upper low continues to shear\r\nout the western side of the storm. The global models indicate that\r\nthe shear should relax in the next 24 to 36 hours allowing a slight\r\nstrengthening in that period. As Karl rounds the mid-level ridge\r\nit will find itself in a more favorable environment with warm\r\nSSTs and lower shear. An increased rate of intensification should\r\ntake place in the 48 to 72 hour time frame, and Karl is expected to\r\nreach hurricane strength by the end of that period. The official\r\nintensity forecast has been nudged slightly downward based on the\r\nlatest guidance, however it is still on the upper end of the\r\nguidance spread.\r\n\r\nThe center of Karl continues pushing west near the 20th parallel\r\nwith an initial motion of 275 at 12 kt.  Karl is expected to make a\r\nturn toward the west-northwest shortly and should reach the western\r\nedge of the subtropical high during the next 48 hours, turning to\r\nthe northwest by day 2 and to the north by day 4. Karl will then\r\naccelerate to the northeast as it gets picked up by the westerlies\r\nahead of an upper level trough. Global model guidance continues to\r\nshow considerable spread into the day 5 period. The ECMWF is\r\nsignificantly slower than the other models because the upper level\r\ntrough does not pick up Karl. The official track forecast follows\r\nclose to the previous forecast and remains near a consensus of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 20.1N  55.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 20.8N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 22.3N  59.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 24.1N  61.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 25.6N  63.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 28.5N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 32.5N  61.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 38.5N  51.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Krekeler/Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nKarl continues to struggle this evening.  Satellite images indicate\r\nthat the low-level center of the storm is completely exposed to the\r\nsouthwest of the main area of deep convection.  The NOAA Hurricane\r\nHunters investigated Karl earlier this evening and found that the\r\nmaximum winds were still around 35 kt, though a very recent ASCAT\r\npass suggests that this estimate could be a bit generous.\r\n\r\nDropsonde data and model vertical cross sections indicate that Karl\r\nis being affected by mid-level southwesterly flow and dry air\r\ninduced by a cut-off low pressure system located a few hundred\r\nmiles to the west.  These unfavorable atmospheric conditions have\r\nbeen affecting the cyclone during the past several days and until\r\nthese conditions abate, little change in the structure or strength\r\nof Karl is anticipated.  The models insist that environment should\r\nbecome less hostile in about 24 h, and Karl should have its best\r\nopportunity to intensify late this week and this weekend when it\r\nmoves into an area of baroclinic forcing.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is identical to the previous one, and lies near the middle\r\nof the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm has moved basically due west during the past 24\r\nhours.  A turn toward the northwest should occur on Wednesday\r\nwhen the cyclone nears the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer\r\nridge, followed by a northward motion in about 3 days when Karl\r\nrounds the ridge and moves into a pronounced weakness.  By the end\r\nof the forecast period, a sharp increase in speed and turn to the\r\nnortheast are expected as a large-scale mid-latitude trough\r\npicks up the tropical cyclone. There are significant forward speed\r\ndifferences in the models associated with how Karl interacts with\r\nthe large-scale trough in the 3 to 5 day time frame, and the\r\nNHC forecast is of low confidence during that period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 19.9N  56.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 20.9N  58.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 22.9N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 24.5N  62.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 25.9N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 29.0N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 32.9N  59.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  26/0000Z 39.2N  48.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nKarl's structure is very difficult to determine this morning.\r\nSatellite data indicate that the low-level center moved westward\r\nfar away from the convection, and currently it is hard to say if\r\nKarl possess a closed circulation or not. Assuming that it still\r\ndoes, the maximum winds are estimated generously at 30 kt, since the\r\ncloud pattern has become less organized. I would not be surprised if\r\nearly visible satellite images will reveal that the cyclone has\r\ndegenerated into a broad area of low pressure.\r\n\r\nGlobal models have totally failed so far in forecasting the\r\nupper-level winds surrounding Karl. The upper-low near Karl which\r\nunanimously all models have been forecasting to weaken is still\r\nstrong and producing shear over the cyclone. Given such a resilient\r\nshear pattern, additional weakening is anticipated today. However,\r\nmost of the models are still predicting a favorable pattern for\r\nintensification, and on this basis as well as continuity, the NHC\r\nforecast calls for some strengthening beyond 36 hours while Karl\r\nmoves away from the hostile tropics. By the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, Karl should be rapidly losing tropical characteristics\r\nwhile it interacts with the mid-latitude flow.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is also highly uncertain, giving that we have\r\nbeen following the low-cloud swirl defining the alleged center. The\r\nbest estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at 12 kt. Karl is\r\napproaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and this\r\npattern should result in a turn to the northwest and then north\r\nduring the following two days. After that time, a sharp recurvature\r\nis anticipated around the northwestern portion of the subtropical\r\nhigh and ahead of a mid-latitude shortwave. This sharp recurvature\r\nis the solution provided by most of the track models, and the NHC\r\nforecast is in the middle if the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 20.2N  57.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 20.9N  59.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 23.0N  61.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 25.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 27.0N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 30.0N  64.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 35.5N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  26/0600Z 43.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nA research flight by the NOAA P3 aircraft earlier this morning had\r\na difficult time closing off a well-defined center of circulation.\r\nHowever, we are able to track what looks like a reasonable center\r\non early-morning visible satellite imagery.  Based on the latest\r\nsatellite images and the P3 data, it does appear that the center\r\nhas wobbled toward the northwest and slowed down a bit.  However,\r\nthe longer-term 12-hour motion estimate is still west-northwestward,\r\nor 295/8 kt.  Most of the deep convection remains displaced well to\r\nthe east of the center, but new convection has recently been\r\ndeveloping just to the north and northwest.  The initial intensity\r\nis held at 30 kt based on earlier reports from the NOAA P3 and a\r\n1254 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass.\r\n\r\nKarl remains located to the south and southwest of a mid-level\r\nhigh.  However, the depression is expected to turn northwestward\r\nlater today when it begins to move between the high and a mid- to\r\nupper-level low located near the Carolina coast.  Karl should then\r\nturn northward and then accelerate toward the northeast from 48\r\nhours and beyond once it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude\r\nwesterlies.  The track guidance remains in generally good agreement\r\non this scenario, and the main differences appear toward the end of\r\nthe forecast period when the ECMWF remains much slower than the\r\nother models.  The new official forecast remains very close to a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, which did not require any\r\nsignificant changes from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe distance between Karl and the upper-level low that has been\r\nadversely affecting it during the past couple of days appears to be\r\nincreasing a bit, and the shear vector over the cyclone has become\r\nsouth-southeasterly.  Although the global models continue to\r\nindicate that the shear will decrease over the next few days, they\r\ndo not agree on the direction of that shear.  In addition, the\r\nmodels do not agree on how much moisture there will be in the\r\nmid-level environment around the cyclone.  As a result, the\r\nintensity forecast is complicated, and confidence is not very high.\r\nFor continuity's sake, the updated intensity forecast is very\r\nsimilar to the previous forecast during the first 3 days, and then\r\nit is a little lower at days 4 and 5 based on the latest guidance.\r\nKarl is expected to become extratropical by day 5, which agrees with\r\nthe latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 20.8N  57.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 22.1N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 24.0N  62.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 25.7N  63.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 27.2N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 31.0N  62.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 36.0N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  26/1200Z 44.0N  38.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg/Gallina/Veenhuis\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of Karl appears to have turned toward the\r\nnorthwest with a motion of 305/10 kt based on GOES-East visible\r\nimagery, recently tucking underneath the cirrus canopy of developing\r\nconvection.  Though strong at the moment, the deep convection\r\ncontinues to be inconsistent, making the intensity determination a\r\nbit muddled.  Proximity to NOAA buoy 41044 indicates the circulation\r\nappears closed with winds backing from east-northeast to northwest\r\nduring the past few hours, but there have been no significant\r\npressure falls.  ASCAT passes from this morning indicated a broad\r\narea of 30-kt winds about 150 n mi to the northeast and east of the\r\ncenter.  As such, the initial intensity remains 30 kts at this\r\ntime.\r\n\r\nKarl has turned toward northwest as it is being funneled between the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of subtropical ridge and the upper- to\r\nmid-level low located north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.\r\nThis northwest track should continue through Friday until Karl turns\r\nnorth and rapidly accelerates northeastward, becoming embedded in\r\nmid-latitude westerlies.  There has been little change in the\r\ntrack guidance, which remains in fairly good agreement through 48\r\nhours.   However, differences begin to appear toward the end of the\r\nforecast period as the ECMWF continues to be a bit slower. The\r\nofficial forecast remains close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF but\r\nhedges toward the faster GFS solution.  This is also in close\r\nproximity to the HWRF.\r\n\r\nKarl's environment continues to gradually improve as the upper low\r\nmoves westward, reducing vertical wind shear as well supporting a\r\nmore diffluent upper-level pattern for increased thunderstorm\r\ndevelopment.  However, mid-level moisture values are marginal and\r\nmay remain as a limiting factor for intensification during the\r\nnext day or so.  Based on the latest intensity guidance, the\r\nofficial forecast now brings Karl back to tropical storm strength\r\nover the next day, with intensification continuing through day 4\r\nafter the cyclone recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies.  Some\r\nweakening is possible by the end of the forecast period after Karl's\r\ntransition to an extratropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 21.9N  58.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 23.3N  60.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 24.9N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 26.5N  64.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 28.2N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 31.5N  61.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 36.6N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 44.5N  38.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Gallina/Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nWhile the convection associated with Karl has become more\r\nconcentrated to the northwest of the center during the past several\r\nhours, dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet indicates that the\r\ncyclone's circulation is at least somewhat disorganized.  A closed\r\ncirculation exists from the surface to 700 mb.  Above that, there is\r\na poorly defined trough at 500 and 400 mb with southwesterly winds\r\nof 10-15 kt above the low level center. Finally, the flow at 300 and\r\n200 mb is from the east and southeast. The maximum surface winds in\r\nthe dropsonde data were 25 kt, and recent ASCAT data implies\r\nmaximum winds near 30 kt.  Thus, the initial intensity remains 30\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 315/13 as Karl continues to move between the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of subtropical ridge and a upper- to\r\nmid-level low located north of Puerto Rico.  This northwestward\r\ntrack should continue for another 24 hours or so.  Beyond that time,\r\nKarl should turn northward, move through a break in the ridge, and\r\nthen accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded in the\r\nwesterlies. Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted\r\na little to the east during the first 72 hours, and the new forecast\r\ntrack for that period lies between the model consensus and the\r\nprevious forecast.  After recurvature, there remain some differences\r\nin the guidance regarding the forward speed of Karl, and the\r\nforecast track is in best agreement with a blend of the GFS and\r\nHWRF models.\r\n\r\nWhile the vertical shear is forecast to gradually decrease over\r\nKarl, mid-level moisture values to the southwest of the cyclone\r\nremain marginal according to the NOAA jet data.  In addition, the\r\ndisorganized circulation argues against any rapid strengthening.\r\nThe intensity forecast calls for slow intensification for the next\r\n36 hours, followed by faster strengthening until the 72 hour point\r\nwhen the cyclone is forecast to be a hurricane.  Karl should weaken\r\nas it begins extratropical transition between 72-96 hours, with the\r\ntransition to a storm-force extratropical low being complete by 120\r\nhours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 22.9N  59.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 24.2N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 25.9N  63.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 27.6N  64.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 29.7N  64.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 33.5N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 40.0N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 47.5N  33.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough Karl's cloud pattern is better organized than 24 hours ago,\r\nthe cyclone lacks an inner core, and there is no new data or\r\nintensity estimates suggesting that the winds have increased. Thus,\r\nthe initial intensity remains 30 kt. Karl is heading toward even\r\nwarmer waters, and the shear is expected to be light for the next\r\nday or two. These conditions should favor some slight strengthening\r\nduring that period. Model guidance suggests that additional\r\nintensification will likely occur after Karl's recurvature in a\r\ncouple of days. This is reflected in the NHC forecast which\r\nbring Karl to hurricane status as it moves northeastward over the\r\nopen Atlantic, and before it becomes extratropical.\r\n\r\nKarl continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 14\r\nkt.  The cyclone is about to reach the southwestern edge of the\r\nsubtropical ridge, and this pattern should force Karl to turn\r\nnorthward in about a day or so. Thereafter, the cyclone is expected\r\nto turn sharply toward the northeast while it becomes embedded\r\nwithin the southwesterly flow associated with an amplifying\r\nmid-latitude trough. The NHC track forecast follows very closely\r\nthe multimodel consensus, and is in the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope, which in fact is tightly packed at least for the next 3\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nAlthough Karl is expected to recurve over the open Atlantic\r\nsoutheast of Bermuda, interests in that island should monitor\r\nthe progress of Karl.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 24.0N  60.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 25.3N  62.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 27.0N  63.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 29.3N  64.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 31.5N  63.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 36.5N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 47.0N  34.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Karl","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nEven with visible satellite imagery this morning, Karl's center has\r\nstill been difficult to locate, and it's unclear exactly how well\r\ndefined it is.  Deep convection has increased markedly since\r\nyesterday, but the overall cloud pattern is rather elongated from\r\nthe east-southeast to the west-northwest.  In the absence of any in\r\nsitu data, the initial intensity remains 30 kt based on Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nKarl is moving northwestward and appears to have sped up\r\ntemporarily with an initial motion of 305/15 kt.  The cyclone is\r\nmoving between a mid-level high centered to its northeast and a\r\nmid-level low located north of Puerto Rico.  Karl is expected to\r\nmove around the western periphery of the high during the next few\r\ndays, turning northward by 36 hours and then accelerating\r\nnortheastward into the mid-latitude westerlies by 48 hours.  Based\r\non the adjustment of the initial position, the track guidance has\r\nshifted a bit left of the positions indicated in the previous\r\nadvisory.  As a result, the updated official forecast has been\r\nadjusted westward during the first 48 hours, lying close to the\r\nECMWF solution as well as the TVCN multi-model consensus.  Even\r\nwith this shift, the official forecast lies close to the eastern\r\nedge of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nKarl lies right along the edge of a zone of higher shear to its\r\nwest, and the various analyses are showing about 15 kt of\r\nsoutheasterly shear over the system.  The global models continue to\r\nshow the shear decreasing at least some during the next couple of\r\ndays, but there are differences.  For example, GFS fields show the\r\nshear decreasing below 10 kt for a day or two, while the ECMWF only\r\nshows the shear decreasing below 10 kt for about 12 hours.  This\r\ncontinues to make the intensity forecast difficult.  For now, the\r\nofficial intensity forecast remains close to the ICON intensity\r\nconsensus, and no significant changes were made to the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, the western edge of the\r\ntropical-storm-force wind field could begin to affect Bermuda\r\nduring the next 36 to 48 hours.  The Bermuda Weather Service has\r\ntherefore issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the island.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 25.0N  62.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 26.3N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 28.3N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 30.2N  64.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 32.3N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 38.0N  50.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 48.0N  32.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg/Campbell/Rubin-Oster\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nAir Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been\r\nflying in Karl, and the data indicate that the cyclone has\r\nre-intensified to a 35-kt tropical storm.  The maximum 850-mb\r\nflight-level wind so far is 45 kt, which equates to an intensity of\r\nabout 35 kt.  This is also supported by SFMR observations.  In\r\naddition, dropsonde data suggest lowering the central pressure down\r\nto 1005 mb. Combined with the aircraft data, scatterometer winds\r\nwithin the convective bands indicate that tropical-storm-force winds\r\nextend 120 nm to the north of the center of circulation.\r\n\r\nKarl has continued its northwestward progression at 305 degrees\r\nwith a speed of 14 knots.  The synoptic pattern around this system\r\nfeatures a mid-level high off to its northeast while a mid-level\r\nlow is positioned to the north of Puerto Rico.  Karl is forecast to\r\nmove around the western extent of the anticyclone which will make\r\nit turn more northward by 36 hours before accelerating\r\nnortheastward into the mid-latitude westerlies by 48 hours.  Based\r\non the adjustment of the initial position provided by the aircraft,\r\nthe track guidance has shifted a bit left of the positions indicated\r\nin the previous advisory.  As a result, the updated official\r\nforecast has been adjusted westward during the first 48 hours, lying\r\na bit closer to the GFS/GEFS mean clustering while giving some\r\ncredit to the TVCN multi-model consensus.  Later in the period, the\r\nECMWF solution was deemed too slow and was not weighted as heavily\r\nat that point.\r\n\r\nKarl lies right along the edge of a zone of higher shear to its\r\nwest, and the various analyses are showing about 15 to 20 knots of\r\nsoutheasterly shear over the system.  The global models continue to\r\nshow the shear decreasing at least some during the next couple of\r\ndays, but there are differences.  For example, GFS fields show the\r\nshear decreasing to around 5 knots or less by Friday morning\r\nthrough evening, while the ECMWF only shows the shear decreasing to\r\naround 10 knots during the same period.  This continues to make the\r\nintensity forecast difficult.  At this point, the intensity\r\nforecast was generally left unchanged which allows Karl to become a\r\nCategory 1 hurricane by Sunday.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, the western edge of the\r\ntropical-storm-force wind field could begin to affect Bermuda\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours.  The Bermuda Weather Service has\r\ntherefore issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the island.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 25.5N  63.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 26.8N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 28.8N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 30.8N  64.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 32.7N  61.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 39.7N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 49.0N  29.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Campbell/Rubin-Oster/Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":35,"Date":"2016-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nReports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nindicate that Karl has become significantly better organized during\r\nthe past 24 hours, with dropsonde data showing that a well-defined\r\ncirculation now exists from the surface to 400 mb.  The maximum\r\nflight-level winds were 56 kt at 8000 ft, and there were numerous\r\nSFMR surface wind estimates of 35-40 kt.  The minimum central\r\npressure estimated from the aircraft data is 1001 mb based on a 1003\r\nmb dropsonde with surface winds of 24 kt. Based on these data and\r\nobservations from NOAA buoy 41049, the initial intensity is now 40\r\nkt.  Additional aircraft data should be available starting at about\r\n0600 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 315/14 as Karl continues moving\r\nnorthwestward between the subtropical ridge and a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough north of Hispaniola and east of the Bahamas.\r\nDuring the next 24-36 hours, Karl should turn northward and then\r\nnortheastward as it moves through a break in the ridge into the\r\nwesterlies.  Subsequently, the cyclone should accelerate\r\nnortheastward.  The model guidance is in excellent agreement with\r\nthis scenario, although there remains some spread in the forecast\r\nforward speed late in the forecast period between the slower ECMWF\r\nand the other faster models.  The new forecast track remains down\r\nthe center of the guidance and overall is similar to the previous\r\ntrack.  The new forecast track is shifted a little closer to\r\nBermuda, with the closest approach now forecast between\r\n24 and 36 hours.\r\n\r\nWhile there remain some differences in the model details, Karl is\r\nexpected to move into an area of decreasing vertical shear during\r\nthe next 48 hours, which should allow continued development.  After\r\nthat, the cyclone should begin extratropical transition, which is\r\nlikely to be complete by 72 hours according the the latest dynamical\r\nmodel guidance.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious forecast and calls for Karl to steadily intensify to\r\nhurricane strength in about 48 hours, followed by rapid weakening\r\nafter extratropical transition.  The forecast also follows the\r\ndynamical models in calling for Karl to be absorbed by another\r\nextratropical low by 120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 27.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 28.4N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 30.5N  64.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 32.4N  62.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 35.2N  57.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 43.5N  41.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 53.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  28/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":36,"Date":"2016-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern on satellite is better organized than 24 hours\r\nago and much better than 2 days ago. Although the center is still\r\nlocated on the southern edge of the convection, the cloud pattern is\r\nmore symmetric, and the outflow is better defined.  Tonight's\r\nupward trend in organization was confirmed by data from an Air Force\r\nHurricane Hunter plane that just left the cyclone. The estimated\r\nminimum central pressure was 999 mb, and there were numerous\r\nreports of 45- to 55-kt winds with a peak of 60 kt at 850 mb.  A\r\nNOAA plane just arrived to the storm and measured a flight-level\r\nwind of 61 kt.  These winds support an initial intensity of 50 kt.\r\n\r\nKarl has the opportunity to strengthen during the next couple of\r\ndays while is moving over warmer water and relatively low shear.\r\nAfter that time, Karl should interact with the baroclinic\r\nmid-latitude flow, and in 3 days, Karl is expected to be a powerful\r\nextratropical cyclone. It will likely become absorbed by a\r\nmuch larger cyclone by day 5. The intensity forecast is very similar\r\nto the previous one, but this one reflects a little stronger cyclone\r\nin the short term based on the initial intensity and the current\r\norganization trend.\r\n\r\nFixes from a reconnaissance plane and satellite give a motion of\r\n325 degrees at 13 kt. Karl is already located on the western edge of\r\nthe subtropical ridge, and this pattern should force the cyclone to\r\nturn northward within the next 12 to 24 hours. Soon thereafter, Karl\r\nis forecast to become embedded within a fast-moving westerly flow\r\nahead of an amplifying mid-latitude trough. This should result in a\r\nsharp turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed. The\r\nnew track forecast brings the core of Karl a little bit closer\r\nto Bermuda in about 24 hours.  The NHC forecast is in the middle of\r\nthe tightly packed model guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 27.9N  64.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 29.5N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 31.5N  64.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 33.5N  61.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 37.0N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 48.0N  35.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":37,"Date":"2016-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nA NOAA P3 flight continued to fly through Karl for a few hours\r\nafter the release of the last advisory, and while it didn't find\r\nwinds higher than 50 kt, dropsonde data did indicate that the\r\nminimum pressure had fallen to 992 mb.  Microwave data indicate\r\nthat Karl is still under the influence of 15-20 kt of south-\r\nsoutheasterly shear.  The convective pattern has continued to\r\nimprove, however, with an elongated curved band extending to the\r\nnortheast and east of the central convection.\r\n\r\nWith sea surface temperatures running between 29-30C for the next\r\n24 hours and vertical shear expected to decrease slightly, it seems\r\nlikely that Karl will continue to strengthen during the next couple\r\nof days.  The intensity guidance is in fairly good agreement on the\r\nintensification trend, and in fact most of the models are showing\r\nKarl reaching a strength between 60 and 65 kt in about 24 hours.\r\nTherefore, the updated official forecast now shows Karl reaching\r\nhurricane intensity at that time.  Continued strengthening is\r\nlikely after that time, and the peak intensity shown in the\r\nofficial forecast is slightly higher than the previous forecast at\r\n48 hours, which is in line with the latest guidance.  Karl will be\r\nin the process of extratropical transition at that time, but the\r\nglobal models fields only agree that the transition will be\r\ncomplete by 72 hours.  Karl should then be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical low by day 4.\r\n\r\nThe last fix from the NOAA P3 was a little east of the previous Air\r\nForce fixes, so it's possible that Karl's center has begun to move\r\neast of due north.  Until we know for sure, the initial motion is\r\nset to be northward, or 360/10 kt.  Karl is located near the\r\nwestern edge of the subtropical ridge axis, and it should become\r\nincreasingly embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies during the next\r\ncouple of days. Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to turn\r\nnortheastward and begin accelerating within the next 24 hours, with\r\nthe motion becoming even faster by 72 hours. The spread among the\r\ntrack models is extremely tight on this forecast cycle, and very\r\nlittle change was required from the previous advisory.  The new\r\nofficial forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nSince Karl is now forecast to become a hurricane by 24 hours while\r\nthe center is passing just to the east of Bermuda, the Bermuda\r\nWeather Service has elected to issue a Hurricane Watch for the\r\nisland.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 28.6N  64.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 30.2N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 32.3N  62.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 34.9N  57.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 38.9N  49.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 50.7N  29.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  27/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg/Sullivan/Gerhardt/Schichtel\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":38,"Date":"2016-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\nISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery contintues to show a well-developed outflow\r\npattern around Karl with the center noted on the southeastern edge\r\nof the colder cloud tops.  Aircraft reconnaissance data has\r\nindicated a gradual drop in pressure to 988 mb, based on a\r\ndropsonde report of 989 mb with 12 kt of wind at the surface.  A\r\npeak 850-mb flight-level wind of 62 kt was measured, which equates\r\nto an surface intensity of 50 kt.  Reliable SFMR data also showed\r\nmaximum surface winds around 50 kt, and that will remain the\r\ninitial intensity.  Latest aircraft fixes had also indicated that\r\nKarl was beginning to turn more northward as it moves around the\r\nwestern edge of the mid-Atlantic subtropical ridge.\r\n\r\nKarl is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures of between\r\n29-30C for the next 24 hours or so while at the same time, some\r\nbrief relaxation in the vertical shear is forecast.  These\r\nconditions should favor some continued slow strenghthening, which is\r\ngenerally supported by a majority of models.  The models also\r\nsuggest that Karl could reach hurricane strength by 24 hours as the\r\nsystem moves to the east of Bermuda.  Continued strengthening of\r\nKarl is likely through 36 hours, then it is expected to gradually\r\ntransition to extratropical status by 48 hours as it becomes\r\nabsorbed by a rapidly approaching cold front.\r\n\r\nThe latest official forecast has shifted Karl slightly west of the\r\nprevious track during the next 12 hours, but otherwise, there are\r\nno significant changes from the previous advisory.  Karl should make\r\na sharp turn and acceleration to the northeast beyond 12 hours as it\r\nencounters increasing westerly flow in advance of an amplifying\r\nupper trough and associated cold front across the northwest\r\nAtlantic.  Karl should then become absorbed by another extratropical\r\nlow over the north Atlantic in 72 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 29.9N  65.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 31.3N  64.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 33.7N  60.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 37.1N  54.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 42.0N  44.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Sullivan/Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":39,"Date":"2016-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nA few hours ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported\r\nflight-level winds of 71 kt at 7800 ft about 30 n mi to the\r\nsouthwest of the center, along with SFMR surface wind estimates of\r\nnear 55 kt.  The minimum central pressure at the time was near 990\r\nmb.  Since then, the cyclone has gotten better organized, with\r\nradar data from Bermuda showing a strong convective band west and\r\nnorthwest of the center.  One caveat to the increased organization\r\nis that the center apparent in both radar and microwave imagery may\r\nbe a little to the northwest of the surface center.  Based on the\r\nearlier aircraft data, the initial intensity is set to 55 kt, and\r\nthis could be a little conservative.\r\n\r\nKarl is expected to remain over sea surface temperatures of between\r\n29-30C for the next 12-24 hours or so in an environment of moderate\r\nvertical wind shear.  This should allow the cyclone to strengthen\r\nto a hurricane in about 24 hours. After that, the cyclone should\r\nundergo extratropical transition as it merges with the cold front,\r\nand this should be complete by 48 hours.  The cyclone is likely to\r\nbe absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72 hours.  The\r\nnew intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, but it\r\nlies a little below the forecasts of the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 020/11.  Karl is about to enter strong\r\nsouthwesterly flow in advance of a deep-layer trough and associated\r\nsurface cold front moving eastward from the northeastern United\r\nStates.  This should result in a turn toward the northeast during\r\nthe next several hours and an increase in forward speed.  The new\r\ntrack forecast has changed little from the previous forecast, and\r\ncalls for Karl to make its closest approach to Bermuda during the\r\nnext 12 hours and then move rapidly away from the island.  Overall,\r\nthe forecast track is near the center of the tightly clustered\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii have been revised based on a recent scatterometer\r\noverpass and input from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 30.8N  65.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 32.5N  63.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 35.5N  57.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 39.5N  49.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 45.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  27/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":40,"Date":"2016-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft this morning\r\nindicate that Karl has made the much anticipated turn toward the\r\nnortheast, and that the center has also reached its closest point of\r\napproach to Bermuda. The strongest 825-mb flight-level wind measured\r\nthus far has been 66 kt and the highest SFMR surface wind measured\r\nhas been 49 kt. The central pressure of 994 mb is based on a\r\nrecent dropsonde report. An earlier dropsonde report indicated that\r\nthe flight-level center was tilted to the northeast of the surface\r\ncenter. Based on these data, the initial intensity is being\r\nmaintained at 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 035/15 kt. Karl is now coming under\r\nthe influence of deep southwesterly steering flow in advance of an\r\napproaching strong mid-latitude trough and surface cold front. This\r\nflow pattern should keep Karl moving northeastward away from Bermuda\r\nand steadily increase its forward speed to 40-45 kt by 36-48 hours.\r\nThe new forecast track is similar to but slightly to the left of the\r\nof the previous advisory track, and lies down the middle of the\r\ntightly clustered track guidance.\r\n\r\nKarl appears to have entrained some dry air in the mid- and low-\r\nlevels of the atmosphere based on reconnaissance data. However, the\r\ncyclone is forecast to remain over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the\r\nnext 24 hours or so within an environment of moderate vertical wind\r\nshear.  This should allow Karl to strengthen to a hurricane in about\r\n24-36 hours. After that, the cyclone is forecast to undergo\r\nextratropical transition as it merges with the cold front, and this\r\nshould be complete by 48 hours, if not sooner.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low between 48-72\r\nhours.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and lies close to the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 31.7N  64.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 33.5N  61.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 36.7N  54.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 41.6N  45.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 47.6N  36.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":41,"Date":"2016-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nData from the last NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission into Karl\r\nearlier this morning found peak flight-level winds of 63 kt at 8,000\r\nft and a peak SFMR wind of 47 kt.  Based on these data, the initial\r\nintensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory, but this could be a\r\nlittle generous.  The latest minimum central pressure based on a\r\ndropsonde from the aircraft is 994 mb.  Karl is still expected to\r\nstrengthen, but it seems likely that this will be at least partly\r\ndue to baroclinic effects, as the global models shows Karl\r\nintensifying while the shear increases to over 50 kt by 24 hours.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast follows this trend, and keeps Karl as\r\na 70-kt cyclone with a very large wind field when it becomes\r\npost-tropical in 36 hours.  The circulation of Karl should be\r\nabsorbed by a large extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic\r\nby 48 hours, as shown in the global model solutions.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft last fixed the center on the southeastern side of the\r\ndeep convection, and the initial motion estimate is now 050/16.\r\nKarl should accelerate quickly northeastward ahead of a broad\r\ndeep-layer trough moving into the Atlantic until it is absorbed,\r\nwith the forward speed expected to reach 50 kt by 36 hours.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near\r\nthe middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe track, intensity, and wind radii forecast of Karl's post-\r\ntropical phase has been coordinated with the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 32.8N  62.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 34.8N  58.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 38.9N  50.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 45.0N  39.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":42,"Date":"2016-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern of Karl has become less organized today and\r\ncurrently resembles a shear pattern, which isn't surprising given\r\nthe 35 kt of southwesterly shear analyzed over Karl by UW-CIMSS.  A\r\nGPM overpass from earlier today showed that the inner-core structure\r\nof the cyclone had degraded, and this was also noted by the last\r\naircraft flight this morning.  The initial intensity remains 55 kt\r\nbased on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to sample\r\nKarl and provide more data on its current intensity and structure.\r\nKarl is expected to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours, but\r\nmuch of this will be due to baroclinic effects as the cyclone will\r\nbe under very high shear and moving over cooler SSTs. The NHC\r\nforecast shows Karl reaching 70 kt at 24 h as a post-tropical\r\ncyclone based on the GFS and ECMWF guidance.  Karl should be\r\nabsorbed by a larger extratropical low over the north Atlantic by 36\r\nh, as indicated by global model fields.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 055/20.  Karl should continue to\r\naccelerate on an east-northeastward to northeastward heading ahead\r\nof a broad deep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed, and the\r\nforward speed is expected to be near 50 kt by 24 hours.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and remains near\r\nthe middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 33.6N  61.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 36.4N  55.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 41.9N  45.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":43,"Date":"2016-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nKarl continues to produce a large area of cold-topped convection\r\nto the northeast of the center.  However, data from the NOAA P-3,\r\nNOAA G-IV, and the NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft indicate that the\r\ncirculation is losing definition as the cyclone accelerates toward\r\nthe northeast.  The initial intensity of 55 kt is based on a\r\ncombination of dropsonde, flight level, and SFMR winds from the\r\nthree planes, and the central pressure of 992 mb is based on data\r\nfrom a Global Hawk dropsonde.  While Karl is expected to become\r\npost tropical by 24 hours, it should intensify to a hurricane-force\r\nsystem as it does so, and this is shown in the intensity forecast.\r\nBy 36 hours, the system should be absorbed into a larger\r\nextratropical low to its northwest.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 055/25.  Karl should continue to\r\naccelerate on a general northeastward heading ahead of a broad\r\ndeep-layer trough until the cyclone is absorbed, and the forward\r\nspeed is expected to be near 50 kt by 24 hours.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is an update of the previous one and remains near the\r\nmiddle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 35.0N  58.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 38.2N  51.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 44.6N  41.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  26/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Karl","Adv":44,"Date":"2016-09-25 09:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n500 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016\r\n\r\nKarl continues to produce a large mass of cold-topped convection\r\nsheared to the northeast of the low-level center. Some of the cloud\r\ntops are as cold as -83 deg C, which is unusual for that far north.\r\nEarlier NASA/NOAA Global Hawk aircraft dropsondes measured surface\r\nwinds as high as 54 kt, and recent satellite intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT are 60 kt and 57 kt, respectively. Based\r\non these data, and given that Karl is now moving at a forward speed\r\nof at least 40 kt, the initial intensity has been conservatively\r\nincreased to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 055/40 kt.  Karl should continue\r\nto move northeastward at 45-50 kt ahead of a broad deep-layer trough\r\nuntil the cyclone is absorbed by a larger extratropical low in about\r\n36 hours. The new official forecast track is just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory and remains near the middle of the tightly packed\r\nguidance envelope, close to the consensus model TVCN and the\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\nKarl is currently located over a ridge of anomalously warm water\r\nwith SSTs of 27C to 27.5C, which likely explains the unusually deep\r\nand cold-topped convection associated with the cyclone. Karl has\r\nabout another 6 hours or so over SSTs greater than 26C, which could\r\nallow the cyclone to strengthen into a tropical hurricane before it\r\nreaches much colder waters. By 12 hours and beyond, Karl will be\r\nmoving over sea-surface temperatures colder than 20C north of 40N\r\nlatitude, which will result in the cyclone losing its deep\r\nconvection and tropical characteristics. However, interaction with\r\nthe aforementioned deep-layer trough and associated baroclinic\r\nenergy should help Karl to strengthen into a powerful post-tropical\r\nlow pressure system possessing hurricane-force winds. By 36 hours,\r\nthe system should be absorbed into a larger extratropical low to its\r\nnorthwest. The new NHC intensity forecast and wind radii are based\r\non input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 37.5N  53.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 41.3N  46.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 48.3N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  26/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Karl","Adv":45,"Date":"2016-09-25 15:00:00","Key":"AL122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122016\r\n1100 AM AST SUN SEP 25 2016\r\n\r\nWhile Karl was producing a large shield of deep convection earlier,\r\nthe convective tops have since warmed substantially and decreased in\r\ncoverage. The cyclone's cloud pattern resembles a baroclinic leaf,\r\nwhich is the typical satellite signature of a system that has become\r\na frontal wave.  The leading edge of a stratocumulus cloud deck,\r\nindicative of cold-air advection, is also encroaching on the\r\nlow-level center.  Based on these developments and FSU Phase Space\r\ndiagrams that already show the cyclone as cold core, Karl is being\r\ndeclared an extratropical cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is\r\nheld at 60 kt in agreement with earlier Global Hawk sonde data and\r\nthe cyclone's rapid translational speed.  Global models show Post-\r\nTropical Karl being absorbed by a larger extratropical storm over\r\nthe North Atlantic after about 24 hours.\r\n\r\nA series of earlier microwave images showed that the center was\r\nrapidly becoming deformed due to nearly 50 kt of southwesterly\r\nshear.  Since this has made finding the location of the low-level\r\ncenter difficult, the initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain\r\n055/42.  The post-tropical cyclone is expected to accelerate a bit\r\nfurther toward the northeast and then turn north-northeast before\r\nlosing its identity.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 39.9N  47.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 45.0N  39.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 52.5N  31.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  27/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery, scatterometer data, and ship observations\r\nindicate that the large low pressure system located southwest of the\r\nCabo Verde Islands has maintained a well-defined circulation and has\r\ndeveloped sufficient organized convection to be considered a\r\ntropical depression. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on\r\nscatterometer wind data of near 30 kt along with Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates T2.5/35 kt and T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,\r\nrespectively. The central pressure is based on reports from ship\r\nD5ET2 during is traversal through the center of the cyclone over the\r\npast 12 hours. The depression is a large tropical cyclone with a\r\nwind field that is more than 400 n mi in diameter.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is an uncertain 280/10 kt, based\r\nprimarily on scatterometer and microwave satellite data.  The\r\ndepression is located along the southern periphery of a large\r\ndeep-layer ridge that is foreast to steer the cyclone westward for\r\nthe next 24 hours or so, followed by west-northwestward motion\r\nthrough 120 hours. The official forecast track lies close to the\r\nconsensus model TVCN through 96 hours, and then leans toward a blend\r\nof the ECMWF, UKMET, and CMC models since the GFS dissipates\r\nthe cyclone by 120 hours, a scenario that seems premature given the\r\ncurrent large size of the cyclone.\r\n\r\nVertical wind shear is forecast to remain low at less than 10 kt\r\nover the cyclone for the next 48 hours, which favors steady\r\nintensification. However, the mid-level moisture is only expected to\r\nbe marginal during that time, with humidity values around 60 percent\r\nor less. The drier air along with the large size of the cyclone are\r\nexpected to temper the development process, and this is reflected by\r\nthe slower-than-average intensification rate. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast closely follows the intensity model IVCN. This forecast is\r\nlower than the SHIPS, LGEM, and ECMWF models, which brings the\r\ncyclone to near hurricane strength by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 13.6N  28.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 14.3N  29.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 15.6N  31.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 16.7N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 17.6N  35.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 19.5N  38.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 21.5N  42.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 23.5N  44.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 PM AST MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nThe coverage of deep convection associated with the depression has\r\ndecreased somewhat during the past several hours, but the\r\ncirculation remains well established with several fragmented\r\ncurved bands. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nsupport maintaining the initial wind speed of 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving west-northwestward at 8 kt.  A weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge over the east-central Atlantic is expected to\r\npersist for the next several days due to a series of shortwave\r\ntroughs moving through the area.  As a result, a continued\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward motion at about the same forward\r\nspeed is expected throughout the forecast period. The models are in\r\nfair agreement, and the NHC track prediction lies on the left side\r\nof the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the ECMWF model.\r\n\r\nThe environmental conditions for strengthening during the next\r\nseveral days are mixed.  Although the shear is expected to be light\r\nand waters warm during the next couple of days, the atmosphere is\r\nnot overly moist in the vicinity of the depression.  These\r\nconditions should allow for slow strengthening during the next 48\r\nhours.  Beyond that time, however, the system is expected to move\r\nin less favorable conditions of stronger shear, even drier air, and\r\nmore marginal SSTs.  These conditions should halt strengthening\r\nand induce gradual weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast lies\r\nclose to the intensity model consensus for the first few days, but\r\nis lower than the consensus at days 4 and 5 given the expected\r\nhostile conditions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 14.2N  29.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 15.0N  30.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 16.1N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 17.2N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 18.1N  35.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 20.0N  38.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 22.0N  42.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 25.0N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi/Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression is only slightly better\r\norganized than yesterday, with some broken convective banding over\r\nthe northeastern portion of the circulation.  Overall, however, the\r\nsystem is elongated from southwest to northeast.  The initial\r\nintensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with Dvorak estimates from\r\nboth TAFB and SAB.  The tropical cyclone is expected to remain in a\r\nlow shear environment for the next 48 hours or so, and therefore\r\nsome strengthening is forecast during that time frame.  Later in\r\nthe period, the dynamical environment is likely to become hostile\r\nfor strengthening since shear associated with an upper-level trough\r\nis forecast to increase to around 30 kt in 3-4 days.  Given this\r\nexpected change in the large-scale environment, weakening should\r\nbegin in 2-3 days and the system is predicted to revert to tropical\r\ndepression status by the end of the forecast period. Although the\r\ndynamical guidance shows some relaxation of the shear at the end of\r\nthe period, the current thinking is that by that time the system\r\nwill be too disrupted to be able to recover.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is close to the LGEM guidance through 72 hours and a little\r\nbelow it at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThere is considerable spread in center fixes and the initial motion\r\nis an uncertain 295/8 kt.  A weakness in the subtropical ridge\r\nalong 30W-40W is likely to induce a more northwestward track\r\nduring the next day or so, followed by a return to a west-\r\nnorthwestward motion as the ridge rebuilds a bit to the north\r\nof the cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, the system is\r\nforecast to turn back toward the northwest due to another weakness\r\nin the ridge.  The official track forecast is somewhat slower and\r\nto the right of the previous one but close to the new dynamical\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 14.4N  29.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 15.4N  30.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 16.6N  32.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 17.5N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 18.4N  35.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 20.8N  38.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 23.4N  40.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 26.5N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 AM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nCORRECTED LISA TO BE TWELFTH NAMED STORM\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the cyclone has steadily improved, with long\r\ncurved bands having developed in the northern semicircle since the\r\nprevious advisory. Although Dvorak satellite classifications from\r\nTAFB and SAB were 30 kt at 1200Z, recent UW-CIMSS ADT values have\r\nincreased to 35 kt and AMSU intensity estimates range from 35-45 kt.\r\nTherefore the initial intensity has been increased to 35 kt, which\r\nis a compromise of these estimates, making the cyclone the twelfth\r\nnamed storm of the 2016 hurricane season.\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Storm Lisa is now\r\nmoving northwestward or 305/10 kt. Water vapor imagery and\r\nsatellite-derived winds indicate that a large mid-latitude trough\r\nextends from near the Canary Islands southwestward into the tropics,\r\nwhich has created a break in the subtropical ridge along 30W-40W\r\nlongitude. Lisa is forecast to move generally northwestward toward\r\nthe break in the ridge for the next 4 days, followed by a northward\r\nturn as the cyclone moves around the western periphery of the ridge\r\naxis. The latest model guidance remains in good agreement on this\r\ntrack scenario, and the new NHC forecast track is just a little to\r\nthe right of the previous advisory track, mainly to account for the\r\nmore northward initial position, and lies close to the consensus\r\nmodel TVCN.\r\n\r\nLisa has about 48 hours remaining to strengthen while the vertical\r\nwind shear and upper-level outflow pattern remain favorable, and\r\nsea-surface temperatures are above 27 deg C. However, a marginally\r\nmoist mid-level environment and the large size of the cyclone are\r\nexpected to prevent any rapid strengthening from occuring. After\r\nthat time, the atmosphere is expected to become quite hostile,\r\ncharacterized by southwesterly shear of 25-30 kt and much drier\r\nmid-level air, resulting in steady weakening from 72-120 hours.\r\nAlthough the dynamical guidance continues to forecast some\r\nrelaxation of the shear toward the end of the period, the cyclone\r\nwill likely be too degraded to recover. The official intensity\r\nforecast is close to the SHIPS model through 48 hours, and then lies\r\ncloser to the LGEM guidance after that.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 15.3N  30.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 16.2N  31.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 17.3N  33.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 18.2N  35.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 19.1N  36.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 21.7N  39.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 24.5N  41.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 28.3N  43.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nDuring the past six hours, a central dense overcast (CDO) feature\r\nhas developed over and to the east of Lisa's low-level center. The\r\nupper-level outflow has also improved, albeit elongated northeast-\r\nto-southwest.  The initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt,\r\nwhich is a blend of a Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35\r\nkt from TAFB, a UW-CIMSS ADT values of T2.9/43 kt, and a 1611Z AMSU\r\nestimate of 44 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/10 kt. Lisa has made a jog to the\r\nright of the previous forecast track and model guidance, which is\r\nmost likely due to the center reforming closer to the strongest\r\nconvection. Other than shifting the forecast track to the right of\r\nthe previous advisory track to account for the more eastward initial\r\nposition, the forecast rationale remains unchanged. The latest NHC\r\nmodel guidance continues to indicate a steady northwestward motion\r\nfor the next four days toward a break in the subtropical ridge\r\nbetween 30W-40W longitude.  On day 5, Lisa is expected to move\r\nnorthward as the ridge erodes eastward. The new NHC forecast track\r\nlies down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope through\r\nday 4, and then follows a blend of the ECMWF and HWRF models on day\r\n5 since those models maintain the cyclone longer.\r\n\r\nLisa has another 36 hours or so to strengthen some more before the\r\nlarge-scale environment becomes very unfavorable, which will be\r\ncharacterized by southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt,\r\ndrier and more stable air, and SSTs less than 27 deg C. It is\r\npossible that Lisa could end up being a little stronger between the\r\n24- and 36-hour forecast periods. By 48 hours, however, steady\r\nweakening is expected to ensue, with Lisa becoming a remnant low\r\npressure system by 120 hours. The intensity forecast closely follows\r\nthe intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 16.4N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 17.2N  32.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 18.1N  33.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 19.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 20.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 22.7N  39.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 25.2N  42.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  25/1800Z 29.2N  44.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased in coverage near and to the northeast\r\nof the center of Lisa this evening.  Although the exact center has\r\nbeen difficult to pinpoint in infrared satellite images, it appears\r\nthat it is located near the southwestern edge of the convection due\r\nto some southwesterly shear.  Satellite intensity estimates still\r\nsupport a wind speed of around 40 kt, so the initial intensity is\r\nunchanged for this advisory.  Lisa has about 24 hours over warm\r\nwater and in a marginally conducive upper-level wind environment in\r\nwhich to strengthen.  After that time, an upper-level low to Lisa's\r\nnorthwest is expected to produce strong southwesterly shear over\r\nthe cyclone, which should cause weakening.  As a result, the NHC\r\nintensity forecast calls for peak intensity in about 24 hours,\r\nfollowed by steady weakening thereafter.  The official forecast is\r\nnear the upper-end of the guidance at 24 hours, but is slightly\r\nlower than the consensus after that time.\r\n\r\nThe somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate is 315/9 kt.  The\r\ntrack forecast appears to be fairly straight forward as Lisa\r\nshould continue moving northwestward during the next several\r\ndays toward a break in the subtropical ridge.  Late in the forecast\r\nperiod, the cyclone should turn northward ahead of a deepening mid-\r\nto upper-level trough over the west-central Atlantic.  The dynamical\r\nmodels are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast\r\nis near a blend of the typically better performing ECMWF and GFS\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 17.1N  31.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 17.8N  32.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 18.6N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 19.4N  35.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 20.6N  36.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 23.6N  39.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 26.5N  42.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z 31.0N  43.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nLisa's cloud pattern has gradually become better organized into a\r\ncomma-like shape, although the system still appears to be somewhat\r\nelongated from southwest to northeast.  Upper-level outflow\r\nremains weak over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.\r\nDvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB yield an intensity\r\nestimate of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory.  The\r\nstorm has less than 24 hours before west-southwesterly shear\r\nassociated with an upper-level trough near 40W-50W longitude becomes\r\nprohibitively large for strengthening.  Therefore, some slight\r\nadditional intensification could occur today, but beyond 24 hours\r\nLisa is forecast to steadily weaken.  By days 4-5, although the\r\nshear is predicted to weaken when Lisa moves under the trough axis,\r\nthe cyclone should have been disrupted too much by the earlier\r\nhostile environment to make a recovery.  The official forecast is\r\nclose to the LGEM guidance through 48 hours and a little below that\r\nmodel thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe center is not easy to locate and the initial motion is a rather\r\nuncertain 315/8 kt, which is partially based on continuity from\r\nearlier estimates.  A weak mid-tropospheric ridge to the north and\r\nnortheast of Lisa should maintain a generally northwestward motion\r\nthrough 72 hours or so.  Later in the forecast period, an\r\napproaching trough in the westerlies, which is also expected to\r\naccelerate Karl to the northeast, should cause Lisa to turn\r\nnorthward over the eastern Atlantic.  The official track forecast\r\nis similar to the previous one and is close to a consensus of the\r\nECMWF, GFS, and UKMET global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 17.5N  32.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 18.2N  33.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 19.1N  34.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 20.1N  35.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 21.3N  37.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 24.1N  40.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 27.5N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z 32.5N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Lisa has not changed much since the previous\r\nadvisory.  A 0911 UTC SSMIS image suggested that the low-level\r\ncenter was located on the western edge of the central convection.\r\nThe 12Z Dvorak Data-T numbers from SAB and TAFB decreased and a\r\npartial ASCAT-B pass from 1115 UTC only showed 30-35 kt winds in the\r\nnortheastern quadrant.  However, the initial intensity is held at 45\r\nkt given the lack of clear evidence of weakening and in agreement\r\nwith the the latest Dvorak CI numbers of T3.0/45 kt.  There is only\r\na small opportunity for the cyclone to strengthen before the shear\r\nincreases even further in 24 to 36 hours.  Weakening is expected\r\nafter that time, and later in the period, as the mid-level\r\nenvironment becomes quite dry, the cyclone should weaken to a\r\nremnant low.  The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and is near the middle of the guidance in the first 36\r\nhours and then is near or below the weaker LGEM solution after that\r\ntime.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/07, given\r\nthe lack of confidence in the location of the center.  Lisa will\r\nmove northwestward during the next 72 hours into a weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge over the eastern Atlantic, and then recurve into\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies on days 4 and 5.  The global models are\r\nin generally good agreement on this scenario, with the ECMWF lying\r\non the left side of the guidance cluster and the GFS shifting to the\r\nright this cycle.  The new NHC track forecast is an update of the\r\nprevious one but has been adjusted for the initial position and\r\nmotion.  This forecast is near a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\ntracks and is well to the left of the GFDL and HWRF models, which\r\nlie nearly 200 n mi east of the rest of the guidance at days 3 and\r\n4.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 18.0N  32.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 18.6N  33.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 19.7N  34.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 20.9N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 22.3N  38.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 25.0N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 28.5N  43.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1200Z 34.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nVertical wind shear of 15-20 kt continues to take a toll on Lisa.\r\nThe coldest convective tops have moved farther east away from the\r\nestimated low-level center position today.  Dvorak estimates were\r\nT2.5/3.0 from both TAFB and SAB at 18Z, and based on these, the\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt for this advisory. Given\r\nthat Lisa has struggled to maintain itself today, and that the SHIPS\r\nmodel shows the shear increasing to 30 kt in the next 18 to 24\r\nhours, there seems to be little opportunity left for the cyclone to\r\nstrengthen.  Given this, the new NHC intensity forecast holds Lisa\r\nat 40 kt through 24 hours and then shows gradual weakening to\r\nremnant low status in 3 to 4 days as the shear increases to near 40\r\nkt and the mid-level relative humidity drops below 30 percent.  This\r\nforecast is closest to the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nAn AMSR-2 pass from GCOM-W1 from around 1430Z provided some guidance\r\non the center location, but it remains somewhat uncertain given the\r\nlarge spread in the satellite fixes.  However, it does appear that\r\nthe center is located a little to the east of previous estimates,\r\nand the initial motion is estimated to be 325/06.  The track\r\nforecast scenario has not changed, as Lisa is expected to move\r\nnorthwestward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge and then\r\nrecurve into the mid-latitude flow during the forecast period.\r\nOverall, the guidance envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, and\r\ngiven the eastward adjustment in the initial position, the NHC\r\nforecast has been shifted eastward by about a degree.  The official\r\nforecast track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF and lies to\r\nthe left of multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 18.5N  32.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 19.4N  33.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 20.8N  34.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 22.1N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 23.5N  37.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 26.0N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 30.0N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1800Z 36.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 21 2016\r\n\r\nLisa remains a sheared tropical cyclone.  Deep convection has\r\nexpanded in coverage this evening, but recent microwave imagery and\r\nASCAT data indicate that the low-level center is located near\r\nthe far western edge of the sharp gradient of cold cloud tops.  The\r\nASCAT pass did not cover much of the northeastern portion of the\r\ncirculation, but it did detected a large area of 35 kt winds to the\r\nnorth and north-northeast of the center.  Based on these data and\r\nsatellite estimates of 35 and 45 kt, from SAB and TAFB respectively,\r\nthe initial intensity remains 40 kt.  Lisa is already located\r\nwithin an area of strong upper-level southwesterly winds to the\r\nsoutheast of a large upper-level low.  During the next day or two\r\nthe tropical storm is forecast to approach the cut-off low, which\r\naccording to the SHIPS model will produce 30-40 kt of shear over\r\nLisa.  As a result, the tropical cyclone is expected to weaken\r\nand become a remnant low in about 3 days, and it could dissipate\r\nbefore the end of the foreast period.  The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast essentially an update of the previous forecast and is in\r\nbest agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe microwave and ASCAT fixes suggest that Lisa is moving\r\nnorth-northwestward at about 6 kt, which is a little right of the\r\nprevious forecasts.  The cyclone is expected to move northwestward\r\ntoward a weakness in the subtropical ridge currently between 30\r\nand 40W.  Later in the period, an amplifying mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough over the western Atlantic should cause Lisa or its remnants\r\nto turn northward and recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies by\r\nday 5.  The track guidance is in fairly good agreement, and only\r\na small eastward adjustment was required during the first 72 hours.\r\nThe updated track prediction is very close to the latest multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 19.2N  32.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 20.2N  33.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 21.6N  35.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 23.0N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 24.3N  37.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 26.7N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 31.0N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z 36.5N  37.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nAs anticipated, the southwesterly shear has been gradually\r\nincreasing, and the center of Lisa is located on the western edge\r\nof an area of very deep convection convection. Based on the average\r\nof Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 40 kt in this\r\nadvisory. Given that the shear is forecast to increase further, and\r\nthe fact that Lisa is heading for cooler waters, the NHC forecast\r\ncalls for weakening. The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low\r\nin about 3 days, but this process could even occur much sooner. The\r\nintensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nThe steering pattern has not changed, and Lisa is moving toward the\r\nnorthwest or 310 degrees around the western side of a weak\r\nsubtropical ridge. This general track should continue for the next\r\n2 to 3 days until a large mid-latitude trough amplifies and force\r\nLisa or its remnants to recurve. The NHC track forecast is an update\r\nof the previous one and follows very closely the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 19.9N  34.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 20.9N  34.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 22.3N  36.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 23.6N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 25.0N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 27.5N  41.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 31.5N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0600Z 35.0N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT-A pass from 1138Z showed that the center of Lisa is located\r\nnear the southwestern edge of an area of bursting deep convection.\r\nThe ASCAT data showed a cluster of 40-45 kt winds north of the\r\ncenter, so the initial intensity is set to 45 kt for this advisory,\r\nwhich is also in agreement with the latest Dvorak current intensity\r\nestimates of T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB.  The restrengthening\r\nappears to have occurred despite the shear increasing to 30-35 kt\r\nbased on the SHIPS model analyses and satellite analyses from\r\nUW-CIMSS, and the upper-level outflow has improved somewhat during\r\nthe past few hours.  However, the separation between the convection\r\nand the low-level center appears to be increasing, and Lisa will be\r\nmoving into a region of even stronger southwesterly shear in the\r\nnext 24 hours, which should result in weakening.  The shear is\r\nforecast to relax late in the period, but it is unlikely that Lisa\r\nwill be able to recover and the cyclone is forecast to become a\r\nremnant low in 3 to 4 days.  This is in agreement with the global\r\nmodels, which show the system decaying by that time.  The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one given\r\nthe higher initial intensity, and is closest to the statistical-\r\ndynamical SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nBased on the ASCAT data and earlier microwave fixes, my best\r\nestimate of the initial motion is 310/06, as the cyclone appears to\r\nhave slowed down some during the past few hours.  The track forecast\r\nreasoning remains the same, however, with Lisa expected to move\r\nnorthwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge for the next 48\r\nhours.  After that time, Lisa or its remnants should recurve ahead\r\nof a large mid-latitude trough.  The new NHC track forecast is an\r\nupdate of the previous one through 72 hours and has been shifted a\r\nbit to the right at days 4 and 5 following the latest model guidance\r\ntrends.  There is a fair bit of along-track spread in the guidance\r\nlate in the period, with the ECMWF much faster than the GFS and\r\nUKMET.  The NHC forecast favors the slower solution, in agreement\r\nwith the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe initial and forecast 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on\r\nthe above-mentioned ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 20.0N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 21.1N  35.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 22.5N  36.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 23.8N  37.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 25.0N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 28.0N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 32.0N  39.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1200Z 35.5N  37.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nStrong vertical shear from an upper-level low near 24N 40W continues\r\nto plague Lisa, with the low-level center located to the southwest\r\nof the deep convection as seen in a 1749Z SSMIS overpass.  The\r\ninitial intensity remains 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimate from SAB.  UW-CIMSS analysis shows that\r\nthe shear is already over 40 kt and the SHIPS model shows it near or\r\nabove this value for the next 36 hours, which should result in\r\nweakening.  The official forecast follows that trend and is close to\r\nthe latest SHIPS guidance through 48 hours.  After that time, Lisa\r\nis expected to remain a 30-kt post-tropical cyclone through 5 days.\r\nEven though the shear diminishes in about 72 hours, the mid-level\r\nrelative humidity remains below 50 percent, and it is assumed that\r\nLisa will be too weak to take advantage of the lower shear.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 320/07.  Lisa is expected to continue\r\nmoving northwestward into a break in the subtropical ridge for the\r\nnext 48 hours.  Beyond that time, Lisa or its remnants should\r\nrecurve ahead of a large mid-latitude trough.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is basically an update of the previous one and is along the\r\neastern edge of the latest guidance envelope.  There continues to be\r\na fair bit of along-track spread in the guidance late in the period,\r\nwith the GFS now faster than the other guidance.  The NHC forecast\r\nhas been adjusted a little faster this cycle but is slower than the\r\nGFS and close to the latest guidance from the Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 20.7N  34.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 21.8N  35.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 23.2N  37.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 24.4N  38.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 25.6N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 29.5N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 34.0N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/1800Z 42.5N  30.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 22 2016\r\n\r\nLisa continues to struggle in the face of strong deep-layer shear.\r\nAlthough the cyclone continues to pulsate convection, several\r\nmicrowave passes between 1900 and 2100 UTC indicate that the center\r\nhas become somewhat more removed from the deepest convection since\r\nthis afternoon.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt, in\r\nline with decreased Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  A 2344 UTC\r\nASCAT-B pass missed the center of Lisa, but showed that 35 kt winds\r\nare present 100-150 nm NE of the presumed center.\r\n\r\nLisa is forecast to remain in a high shear and increasingly dry\r\nenvironment, so further weakening seems inevitable.  The main\r\nquestion is how quickly will the deep convection cease to exist.\r\nThe GFS and HWRF both show mid- to upper-level dry air cutting over\r\nthe circulation in about 36 to 48 hours, suggesting a complete lack\r\nof deep convection in those models at that time. The official\r\nforecast now calls for Lisa to become post tropical within 48 hours,\r\nbefore being absorbed by an approaching front after 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThere is little change to the track forecast reasoning overall.\r\nLisa continues to move toward the northwest, or 320 degrees, at a\r\nrather uncertain 8 kt.  A lack of microwave or scatterometer data\r\nover the center since 2100 UTC has made the center difficult to\r\nlocate and introduces some uncertainty to the forecast. Regardless,\r\nLisa should continue moving northwestward around a low- to mid-level\r\nridge, located east of the Azores, before recurving ahead of an\r\napproaching front.  The first 48 hours of the forecast are near a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.  The 72 and 96 hour points\r\nincorporate guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 21.3N  35.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 22.4N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 23.6N  37.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 24.7N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 26.2N  40.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 30.5N  41.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 35.5N  37.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  28/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven/Zelinsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe center of Lisa has become fully exposed due to strong shear,\r\nlike so many Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2016.  Some convection\r\nremains, although well away from the center, in the northern\r\nsemicircle.  The initial wind speed is reduced to 35 kt, which is on\r\nthe high side of the latest Dvorak estimates.  Very strong shear\r\nshould cause further weakening, along with marginal SSTS and\r\nincreasingly dry air aloft.  Deep convection will likely be\r\nstruggling in that environment within 24 hours, and the new forecast\r\nhas Lisa becoming a remnant low in 36 hours.  Most of the global\r\nmodels now show Lisa decaying to a trough in 3 to 4 days before it\r\ngets absorbed by a cold front, but either way it should be a weak\r\nsystem by then.\r\n\r\nLisa continues moving northwestward at about 8 kt.  A track toward\r\nthe west-northwest or northwest is expected for the next couple of\r\ndays while the system moves around the subtropical ridge. Afterward\r\nthe post-tropical cyclone should turn northward as it gets caught up\r\nin southerly flow ahead of Karl.  The guidance has shifted westward\r\non this cycle, possibly due to a weaker Lisa being steered more by\r\nthe low-level subtropical ridge.  Thus, the official forecast\r\nis moved westward as well, near or just west of the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 21.8N  35.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 22.7N  36.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 23.6N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 24.6N  40.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 26.1N  41.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 30.5N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nLisa's center remains exposed to the southwest of the deep\r\nconvection due to around 40 kt of southwesterly shear as analyzed by\r\nUW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model fields.  The initial intensity remains\r\n35 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB, but this could\r\nbe a little generous.\r\n\r\nStrong shear is expected to continue for the next 24 to 36 hours.\r\nThis shear, in combination with a drying mid-level atmosphere and\r\nmarginal SSTs, should result in weakening.  Lisa is forecast to\r\nweaken to a tropical depression tonight, and become a remnant low in\r\n24 to 36 hours, as organized deep convection is expected to decay in\r\nthe harsh environment.  The remnant low of Lisa is forecast to open\r\nup into a trough in 3 to 4 days, in agreement with the latest GFS\r\nand ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/06.  Lisa should continue moving\r\ngenerally northwestward around the subtropical ridge for the next 36\r\nhours.  After that time, the decaying system should recurve ahead of\r\na deep-layer trough moving across the northern Atlantic.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is close to the previous one through 24 hours and\r\nhas been nudged westward at 36 and 48 hours following the latest\r\ntrend in the guidance.  This forecast is close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus aid TVCN and the GEFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 22.2N  36.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 23.1N  37.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 24.2N  39.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 25.4N  41.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 27.4N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 31.5N  40.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nAll of the deep convection has been removed far from the center of\r\nLisa by continued strong southwesterly shear of around 40 kt.  The\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on the latest\r\nDvorak estimate from TAFB.  At this point, with a combination of\r\nstrong shear, marginal SSTs and a drying mid-level atmosphere, it\r\nseems unlikely that Lisa will regain organized deep convection, so\r\nremnant low status is now indicated by 24 hours.  The weak cyclone\r\nshould dissipate by 72 hours in fast southwesterly flow ahead of an\r\napproaching deep-layer trough.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has been rather slow today, and is currently\r\nestimated as 310/06.  The increasingly shallow cyclone is expected\r\nto turn west-northwestward tonight and then recurve between 36 and\r\n48 hours as the deep-layer trough approaches from the west.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one after\r\n12 hours, reflecting a westward shift in the guidance that is\r\nprobably responding to Lisa's weakening.  This forecast is close to\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope and near the latest guidance\r\nfrom the Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 22.5N  36.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 23.4N  38.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 24.4N  40.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 26.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 27.9N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2016\r\n\r\nLisa continues to suffer from strong vertical wind shear. There has\r\nbeen no deep convection within 120 nm of the center for nearly 12\r\nhours now, though occasional bursts of convection have been noted a\r\nlittle farther than that to the north.  A 2324 ASCAT-B pass showed\r\nseveral 35-kt wind vectors between the center and the convection\r\nfarther to the north.  Based on this new information, it is believed\r\nthat Lisa was still a tropical storm at the time of the previous\r\nadvisory and at 0000 UTC.  Given the lack of deep convection since\r\nthat time, the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt. Regardless\r\nof the maximum winds, the dynamical guidance all suggest that the\r\nstrong shear and dry mid- and upper-level air will continue to\r\nsuppress convection near the center, and Lisa is forecast to be\r\ndeclared post-tropical within 12 hours. The remnant circulation\r\nshould last a day or two after that, before dissipating ahead of a\r\ndeep-layer trough approaching from the west.\r\n\r\nThe depression may finally be beginning to speed up, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is 315/07.  The low-level remnants of Lisa are\r\nstill forecast to move west-northwestward, with a gradual turn\r\ntoward the north in a day or two while it moves around the periphery\r\nof the subtropical high centered near the Azores.  The official\r\nforecast has again been nudged westward, but lies a little to the\r\nright of the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 23.2N  37.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 23.9N  38.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 25.0N  40.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 26.4N  42.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 28.8N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven/Zelinsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nA strong burst of convection has recently formed in the northeastern\r\nquadrant of Lisa. Overall, however, the system looks less organized\r\nthan it did yesterday, with the low-level circulation becoming\r\nelongated from north to south.  The initial wind speed is held at 30\r\nkt in agreement with the TAFB satellite classification. Although\r\nthere is only limited skill in forecasting deep convection, this\r\nburst is expected to be ephemeral due to strong shear and dry air\r\naloft.  Thus, Lisa is still forecast to be a remnant low by this\r\nevening.  The global models show Lisa weakening and opening up into\r\na trough within 2 days, and so will the NHC prediction.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a bit faster than earlier, now 315/08.  Lisa,\r\nor its remnants, are still forecast to move west-northwestward,\r\nwith a gradual turn toward the north in a day or two while it moves\r\naround the periphery of the subtropical high centered near the\r\nAzores.  The official forecast is close to the previous one and the\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 23.8N  37.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 24.6N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 26.0N  41.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 28.0N  42.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lisa","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective burst that occurred overnight has separated from the\r\nlow-level center of Lisa and is now nearly dissipated.  This leaves\r\nLisa as a tight swirl of low-level clouds once again.  An ASCAT-B\r\npass around 1200 UTC indicated that maximum winds were close to 40\r\nkt, but given the degradation of the cloud pattern since the pass\r\nthe initial wind speed is set at 35 kt.  This makes Lisa a tropical\r\nstorm again.  Even though Lisa is a little stronger than estimated\r\nearlier, the intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous\r\none.  Continued strong shear and dry air should cause a gradual\r\ndecay of the cyclone, and Lisa will likely become a remnant low by\r\ntonight.  The models are in good agreement in showing the remnant\r\nlow opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it becomes\r\nabsorbed by a cold front.\r\n\r\nLisa is moving northwestward at 9 kt.  A west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion at about the same speed is expected during the\r\nnext 24 hours as Lisa remains steered by a high pressure system to\r\nits north.  A motion more toward the north is forecast to occur on\r\nSunday as the high shifts eastward to near the Azores.  Only small\r\nadjustments were made to the previous NHC track prediction, and it\r\nlies close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 24.7N  38.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 25.7N  40.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 27.4N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 29.3N  42.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lisa","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-09-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n500 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nLisa has been devoid of thunderstorm activity since the convective\r\nburst dissipated shortly after 1200 UTC.  Assuming some additional\r\nspin down since the ASCAT pass this morning, the initial wind speed\r\nis lowered to 30 kt, making Lisa a tropical depression again.\r\nMeteosat dust product images from the GOES-R Proving Ground indicate\r\nthat a plume of Saharan dust is approaching Lisa from the east. This\r\ndry air combined with westerly shear should cause the depression to\r\ndegenerate to a remnant low by tonight and continue weakening during\r\nthe next day or two.  The global models are in fair agreement in\r\nshowing the low opening into a trough in 36 to 48 hours before it\r\ngets absorbed by a cold front.\r\n\r\nLisa is moving northwestward at 10 kt.  A gradual turn to the north\r\nis expected during the next day or two while the high pressure\r\nsystem to the north of Lisa shifts eastward.  The NHC track forecast\r\nis slightly to the left of the previous one, and is in best\r\nagreement with the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 25.3N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 26.4N  41.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 28.4N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 30.5N  42.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Lisa","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-09-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT SEP 24 2016\r\n\r\nNo deep convection was observed near the center of Lisa between\r\n1200 UTC yesterday and 0200 UTC today. Although one small areas of\r\nconvection has tried to develop since then, it is insufficient to\r\nmeet the organized deep convection requirement for a tropical\r\ncyclone.  Yesterday's overnight burst of convection seems to have\r\nbeen supported in part by an upper level low, however Lisa has now\r\nmoved farther to the west of that feature.  In the absence of any\r\nother synoptic-scale forcing, the redevelopment of widespread deep\r\nconvection is unlikely. No new scatterometer data is available\r\ntonight, so the initial intensity has been held at 30 kt.  Without\r\nany convection to maintain the circulation, Lisa should gradually\r\nspin down over the next day or so before dissipating ahead of a\r\ndeep-layer trough approaching from the west.\r\n\r\nThe low-level remnants of Lisa are moving around a high pressure\r\nsystem centered near the Azores.  The global models are in good\r\nagreement that this high will move retreat eastward over the next\r\nday or so, which should cause Lisa to turn toward the north in\r\n12-24 hours.  A turn toward the north-northeast ahead of the\r\napproaching front is possible before the circulation dissipates\r\nentirely.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 25.8N  40.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 27.2N  42.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 29.3N  42.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 31.4N  42.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven/Zelinsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM AST WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nSurface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical wave passing\r\nthrough the Windward Islands has acquired a closed circulation.  The\r\naircraft found peak flight-level winds of 64 kt, and SFMR surface\r\nwinds of around 50 kt over the northern portion of the circulation.\r\nAs a result, advisories are being initiated on a 50-kt tropical\r\nstorm. The current lack of inner core structure suggests that\r\nfurther strengthening should be limited today, but environmental\r\nconditions consisting of warm water and low shear ahead of Matthew\r\nfavor intensification throughout the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod. The NHC intensity forecast is more conservative than the\r\nstatistical guidance, but follows the trends of the global models\r\nin deepening the system.\r\n\r\nSince the center has very recently formed, the initial motion\r\nestimate is a highly uncertain 275/18 kt.  A strong deep-layer ridge\r\nover the western Atlantic should steer Matthew westward across the\r\neastern Caribbean during the next few days, and the track guidance\r\nis tightly clustered through 72 hours.  After that time, the\r\ntropical cyclone will be approaching the western portion of the\r\nridge and a northwestward turn is expected, although there are\r\nsignificant differences among the track models as to when the turn\r\ntakes place and how sharp it will be.  The GFS takes the cyclone\r\nnorthwestward much faster than the ECMWF with more troughing\r\ndeveloping over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  For now, the NHC track\r\nlies near a consensus of the faster GFS and slower ECMWF.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 13.4N  60.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 13.6N  63.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 13.9N  66.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 13.9N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 13.8N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 13.5N  74.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 14.8N  75.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 17.5N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nSurface observations and aircraft data from earlier this afternoon\r\nindicate that the circulation of Matthew has continued to become\r\nbetter defined.  There has also been an increase in convection\r\njust northeast of the center.  The initial intensity remains 50 kt\r\nbased on the earlier aircraft data.  The next Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter mission into Matthew is scheduled for this evening.\r\nAlthough the increase in convection suggests that the system may be\r\ntrying to establish an inner core, recent microwave and radar data\r\nhave not revealed a significant increase in organization or banding\r\nso far.  The aircraft also did not report any pressure fall during\r\nits mission. Based on these trends, little change in intensity is\r\npredicted in the short-range, but warm waters and low shear are\r\nexpected to allow for steady strengthening while Matthew moves over\r\nthe eastern and central Caribbean during the next few days.  The\r\nupdated NHC intensity forecast is a little below the intensity\r\nconsensus through 24 hours, but is close to the consensus and the\r\nstatistical models after that time.\r\n\r\nMatthew is moving westward to west-northwestward at about 16 kt.\r\nThe track forecast reasoning is unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory.  The tropical cyclone should move generally westward\r\nduring the next 2 to 3 days to the south of a strong deep-layer\r\nridge over the western Atlantic.  The new NHC track forecast has\r\nbeen nudged northward through 72 hours, to be closer to the new\r\nmodel consensus.  After day 3, Matthew is expected to turn\r\nnorthwestward as it nears the western portion of the ridge.  The\r\noverall track envelope has shifted slightly eastward at days 4 and\r\n5, and the NHC track has been adjusted accordingly.  It should\r\nbe noted that are still significant differences among the models in\r\nhow soon and how sharply Matthew turns northwestward and northward\r\nlate in the forecast period.  Users are reminded that the average\r\nNHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240\r\nmiles, respectively.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 13.8N  62.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 14.1N  64.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 14.4N  67.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 14.4N  69.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 14.1N  71.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 14.2N  73.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 15.8N  75.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 19.0N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nMatthew crossed a portion of the Lesser Antilles today, and\r\ntropical-storm-force winds were experienced in various islands for\r\nseveral hours.  The strongest winds appeared to have occurred in\r\nMartinique which was located in the northeastern quadrant of the\r\nstorm.  An Air Force plane currently investigating Matthew measured\r\na peak wind at 850-mb of 73 kt, while the SFMR instrument measured\r\n54 kt. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb. There are no signs\r\nof an inner core yet, but the cloud pattern has increased in\r\norganization, and the initial intensity was adjusted upward to 55\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nMatthew is forecast to move over warm waters and relatively low\r\nshear during the next few days, and these conditions should lead to\r\ngradual strengthening.  There is a possibility, however, that\r\nMatthew encounters some westerly shear in the central Caribbean well\r\nsouth of Haiti in a day or two. This is an area climatologically\r\nunfavorable for storms to intensify, and Matthew could reduce its\r\nrate of strengthening there.  After that, most of the models show a\r\nmore conducive upper-level environment, and Matthew could intensify\r\nat a faster rate. The NHC forecast is not very different from its\r\npredecessor and follows closely the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFixes from an Air Force plane indicate that Matthew is moving\r\ntoward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt.  A strong subtropical\r\nridge over the Atlantic is steering Matthew westward, and some\r\nmodels even move the cyclone south of due west. Most of the guidance\r\nis very consistent with this track during the next 48 hours. After\r\nthat time, guidance becomes more divergent, but in general, all\r\nmodels turn the cyclone toward the northwest and north. Of the\r\nhistorically reliable models, the westernmost track is the ECMWF\r\nensemble mean while the easternmost is the HWRF. The NHC track\r\nforecast is in the middle of the TVCX and TVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus, and does not depart very much from the previous official\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThere will be very interesting days ahead as Matthew moves toward\r\nthe central and western Caribbean Sea, and users are reminded that\r\nthe average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180\r\nand 240 miles, respectively.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 13.9N  63.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 14.3N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 14.4N  67.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 14.3N  70.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 14.1N  71.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 14.5N  73.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 16.8N  75.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 20.0N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nMatthew is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear, with the low-level center located near the\r\nwestern edge of the main convective mass.  An earlier Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter mission reported 850 mb flight-level winds\r\nof 65-70 kt and estimated surface winds of 50-55 kt from the SFMR\r\ninstrument.  Based on these data, the initial intensity remains 55\r\nkt.  The aircraft reported a central pressure of 1002 mb on its\r\nlast pass through the center.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/14.  Matthew is currently on the south\r\nside of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge.  This feature should\r\nsteer the storm westward or even south of west during the next 48\r\nhours.  After that time, Matthew is expected to approach the\r\nwestern end of the ridge as a mid- to upper-level trough develops\r\nover the Gulf of Mexico.  While this combination is expected to\r\ncause the cyclone to turn generally northward, there is significant\r\ndisagreement between the dynamical models on where the turn will\r\noccur and how fast Matthew will move northward.  The forecast track\r\nis in best agreement with the GFS and GFS ensemble mean in bringing\r\nthe center to eastern Cuba by 120 hours, although it is slower than\r\nthose models. The Canadian model is a little west of the forecast\r\ntrack. The ECMWF and UKMET are to the east of the forecast track and\r\nmuch slower, bringing the center to the island of Hispaniola.\r\nOverall, the new forecast track is nudged a little south of the\r\nprevious track for the first 72 hours, then is similar to the\r\nprevious track.  Users are reminded that the average NHC track\r\nerrors at days 4 and 5 are on the order of 180 and 240 miles,\r\nrespectively.\r\n\r\nThe current shear is likely to gradually diminish during the next\r\n72 hours, and this should allow continued gradual development.\r\nAfter that time, there is also disagreement in the models regarding\r\nthe forecast shear, with the GFS showing a more favorable pattern\r\nthan the ECMWF.  If the GFS upper-level winds are correct, Matthew\r\ncould strengthen more than currently forecast as show by the HWRF.\r\nHowever, given the uncertainty, the new intensity forecast is the\r\nsame as the previous forecast and is in best agreement with the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 14.0N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 14.1N  66.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 14.1N  69.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 13.9N  70.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 13.8N  72.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 14.5N  74.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 17.5N  75.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 20.5N  75.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Matthew","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM AST THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nThe center of Matthew is exposed to the southwest of the deep\r\nconvection due to moderate southwesterly shear.  Despite the shear,\r\ndata from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft show that\r\nMatthew is a little stronger this morning.  The aircraft has\r\nmeasured peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 80 kt, and believable\r\nSFMR winds of around 60 kt, which is the basis for the initial\r\nintensity.  The minimum central pressure reported by the aircraft\r\nis down to 996 mb.\r\n\r\nGiven the current shear and structure of Matthew, only slight\r\nstrengthening is predicted during the next 24 hours.  The shear is\r\nforecast to slowly decrease over the next few days, although there\r\nare some differences in the upper-level wind forecasts between the\r\nECMWF and GFS models.  The ECMWF keeps a band of southwesterly\r\nupper-level winds near Matthew, while the GFS generally shows lower\r\nshear.  The NHC forecast assumes that there will be a reduction in\r\nshear and calls for intensification similar to the previous\r\nadvisory. The official wind speed forecast is between the lower\r\nstatistical guidance and the more aggressive HWRF and GFDL models.\r\n\r\nMatthew is moving at 275/14 kt.  The tropical storm is expected to\r\nmove westward to the south of a mid- to upper-level ridge over the\r\nwestern Atlantic during the next couple of days. In about 48 hours,\r\nMatthew should turn northwestward when it approaches the western\r\nperiphery of the ridge.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is\r\nforecast to turn northward while a mid- to upper-level trough\r\ndevelops over the Gulf of Mexico.  The GFS is still much faster than\r\nthe ECMWF at taking Matthew northward. Although the east/west spread\r\namong the higher quality track models is somewhat smaller this\r\nmorning, there is still significant spread among the ECMWF ensembles\r\nbeyond 3 days, and the overall confidence in the track forecast is\r\nstill low.  The new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of\r\nthe previous forecast and is very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 14.2N  66.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 14.3N  68.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 14.1N  70.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 13.9N  71.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 13.9N  72.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 15.3N  74.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 18.0N  75.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 21.5N  75.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nAfter the low-level center became nearly exposed this morning, deep\r\nconvection has redeveloped over the center.  The overall cloud\r\npattern of Matthew has become better organized during the day, with\r\nsome banding features over the eastern and northern portions of the\r\ncirculation.  Thanks to some timely observations from the Air Force\r\nHurricane Hunters, Matthew was upgraded to a hurricane at 18Z.  This\r\nwas based on several believable SFMR-observed surface wind\r\nmeasurements from the aircraft.  Matthew is forecast to remain in an\r\nenvironment of 15 to 20 kt of shear into Friday, with some\r\nrelaxation of the shear expected by late Friday.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is\r\na little above the model consensus but close to the latest HWRF\r\nmodel prediction.\r\n\r\nMatthew has not slowed down yet, with the initial motion remaining\r\nwestward at 15 kt.  A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the\r\nhurricane should maintain a westward to slightly south of westward\r\nmotion for the next 48 hours or so.  Then, Matthew is likely to\r\nturn to the right as it nears the western periphery of the ridge,\r\nand head generally northward to the southwest and west of the high\r\nand east of a trough over the Gulf of Mexico late in the forecast\r\nperiod.  One should not focus on the details of the track at 72 to\r\n120 hours due to the inherent forecast uncertainties.  It should be\r\nnoted that the NOAA G-IV aircraft is currently doing a synoptic\r\nsurveillance mission to provide data in the environment of Matthew\r\nfor initializing the numerical models.  It is hoped that these\r\nadditional data will improve the accuracy of tonight's model\r\nruns.\r\n\r\nThe unusually far south track of Matthew has necessitated the\r\nissuance of a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast of\r\nColombia.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 14.1N  67.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 14.0N  69.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 13.8N  71.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 13.7N  72.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 13.7N  73.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 15.7N  75.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 18.6N  75.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 22.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nData from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is\r\nstrengthening. The estimated minimum pressure from a dropsonde\r\nis 983 mb. The SFMR instrument measured an isolated peak wind of\r\n77 kt in the northwest quadrant near the center. However, the\r\nflight-level winds measured in this mission so far only support an\r\ninitial intensity of 70 kt.\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is much better organized than 24 hours ago, and\r\na recent SSMIS pass showed an eye feature. This was confirmed by the\r\ncrew onboard the reconnaissance aircraft which reported a circular\r\n22 n mi eye open to the south.  Images from Curacao radar also show\r\nthe center of the cyclone becoming better defined.  However, since\r\nsome southwesterly wind shear is still affecting the cyclone, only a\r\nslight strengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours.\r\nAfter that time, the shear is forecast to relax some, and the\r\noverall environment is expected to be more conducive for\r\nintensification. The NHC forecast continues to be above the model\r\nconsensus, and is very similar to the forecast issued by my\r\npredecessor.\r\n\r\nFixes from a reconnaissance plane and radar from Curacao indicate\r\nthat Matthew is moving toward the west or perhaps just south of due\r\nwest at about 12 kt. A strong ridge to the north is forecast to keep\r\nMatthew moving westward across the southern portion of the Central\r\nCaribbean for the next 2 days. After that time, Matthew will be\r\nlocated on the western side of the high and ahead of a mid-latitude\r\ntrough over the Gulf of Mexico.  This steering pattern should force\r\nthe cyclone to turn toward the north at about 5 to 7 kt.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, which in\r\nfact has not changed very much today, and does not deviate much from\r\nthe previous forecast.\r\n\r\nGlobal models, primarily the GFS and the ECMWF, continue to show a\r\nstrong hurricane in the vicinity of Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti in 3 or\r\n4 days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 14.1N  68.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-30 06:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n200 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016\r\n\r\nThis special advisory is being issued in lieu of the scheduled\r\nintermediate advisory due to the rapid strengthening of Matthew\r\nduring the past few hours.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft reported flight-level winds of 99 kt in the northern\r\neyewall at 700 mb, along with surface wind estimates of 80-85 kt\r\nfrom the SFMR instrument.  In addition, the central pressure has\r\nfallen to 979 mb.  Based on these data, the initial intensity is\r\nincreased to 85 kt.  This also requires significant changes to the\r\nintensity forecast, which now calls for Matthew to reach major\r\nhurricane status in 24 hours and maintain it through 96 hours.  It\r\nis unclear how long the rapid strengthening will continue, and the\r\nrevised forecast could be conservative.\r\n\r\nThere are no changes to the forecast track from the previous\r\nregular advisory.\r\n\r\nIt should be noted that despite the rapid intensification, the\r\naircraft data, along with recent scatterometer data, show that the\r\ntropical-storm-force winds still extend only a short distance\r\nover the southern semicircle.  Based on this, no warnings are\r\nrequired for Aruba, Curacao, or Colombia at this time.  A warning\r\nmight be necessary if the southern radii expand or if the center\r\nmoves to the south of the forecast track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0600Z 14.1N  69.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 14.0N  70.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 13.9N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 13.8N  73.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 14.1N  74.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 16.4N  75.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 19.7N  75.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 23.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 30 2016\r\n\r\nThere are no data currently available from the inner core of\r\nMatthew, so it is unclear whether the earlier rapid intensification\r\nis continuing.  A well-defined elliptical eye is seen in data from\r\nthe Curacao radar.  However, the latest satellite imagery shows\r\nthat the central convection is somewhat asymmetric and that an eye\r\nis yet to form.  Satellite intensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB\r\nand 77 kt from SAB.  Based on continuity from the previous advisory\r\nand no improvement in the satellite signature, the initial intensity\r\nis held at a possibly conservative 85 kt.  It is notable that the\r\nrapid intensification has occurred despite an ongoing 20 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 265/12.  There is little change to the track\r\nforecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  A low- to\r\nmid-level ridge to the north of Matthew should keep it moving\r\nwestward or south of westward for the next 36 hours with some\r\ndecrease in forward speed.  From 48-120 hours, the ridge is\r\nforecast to weaken and shift eastward as a mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough moves into the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This\r\nevolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward and then\r\nnorthward.  There is a significant spread in where the turn will\r\noccur and how fast Matthew will move afterwards.  The ECMWF and\r\nUKMET are on the eastern side of the guidance envelope and slower\r\nthan the other models, while the GFS and Canadian models are to the\r\nleft of the center of the guidance envelope and much faster.  The\r\nvarious consensus models split these differences in both track and\r\nspeed, and the new forecast track lies close to them.  Overall, the\r\nnew track is a little south of the previous track through 48 hours\r\nand a little west of the previous track from 72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is very problematic.  The ongoing shear has\r\nso far done little to keep Matthew from intensifying.  Despite\r\nthis, the intensity guidance is in unanimous agreement that the\r\ncyclone should weaken from 12-48 hours, most likely due to shear.\r\nFrom 48-96 hours, the shear is expected to diminish, and during that\r\ntime Matthew is expected to intensify until it interacts with land.\r\nThe intensity forecast will smooth through what could be some ups\r\nand downs in intensity.  First, it assumes that the current\r\nstrengthening will continue for another 12-24 hours, with Matthew\r\nreaching major hurricane strength.  Then, it keeps the intensity at\r\n100 kt from 24-48 hours, followed by some intensification as the\r\nshear lets up.  Weakening due to land interaction is forecast after\r\n72 hours.  The intensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the\r\nintensity guidance, but it is less intense than the HWRF model from\r\n72-120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 14.0N  69.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 13.8N  71.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 13.7N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 13.9N  73.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 14.5N  74.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 17.0N  76.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 20.5N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  05/0600Z 24.5N  76.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016\r\n\r\nMatthew has continued to intensify this morning.  An Air Force\r\nReserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a peak SFMR wind\r\nof 99 kt and a 700-mb wind of 103 kt.  Based on these data, the\r\ninitial intensity is set to 100 kt for this advisory.  The aircraft\r\nreported that the central pressure had fallen to 968 mb, and also\r\nobserved a 16 n mi wide eye that is open to the southwest.  Water\r\nvapor imagery shows a well-established poleward outflow channel,\r\nwith outflow also expanding in the southwest quadrant.\r\n\r\nThis intensification has occurred despite analyzed southwesterly\r\nshear of around 20 kt.  The SHIPS model output shows this shear\r\ncontinuing for the next 36 hours or so, and as a result, the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM models show Matthew weakening during this time.  This\r\nweakening trend is also shown by the HWRF and COAMPS-TC hurricane\r\nmodels.  However, I am reluctant to show a decrease in intensity\r\ngiven that the environment around the cyclone does not appear to\r\nchange much.  Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are\r\ncertainly possible, but the official forecast remains above much of\r\nthe guidance in the short range and keeps the intensity at 100 kt\r\nthrough 72 hours. Some weakening is shown by days 4 and 5 due to\r\npotential land interaction.  Late in the period the NHC forecast is\r\nclosest to the HWRF model.\r\n\r\nMatthew has been moving west-southwestward during the past few\r\nhours, with an initial motion estimate of 255/10.  The cyclone\r\nshould continue moving south of due west for the next 12 hours to\r\nthe south of a mid-level ridge nosing into the northern Caribbean\r\nSea.  After that, Matthew should gradually turn poleward as the\r\nridge retreats eastward and a trough moves into the eastern Gulf of\r\nMexico.  There remains a large amount of spread in the guidance,\r\nboth along and across track.  The ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and\r\nthe UKMET are slower and on the right side of the guidance envelope\r\nat 48 hours and beyond.  The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and\r\nCOAMPS-TC are faster and farther to the left.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast has been adjusted a little to the south in the first 36\r\nhours due to the initial motion, and lies a little south of the\r\nconsensus and close to the GFS at this time range.  Beyond that\r\ntime, the official forecast is an update of the previous one and\r\nlies a little to the east of the latest multi-model consensus and a\r\nbit to the west of the GFS/ECMWF blend.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 13.7N  70.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 13.5N  71.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 13.5N  73.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 13.8N  74.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 14.7N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 17.5N  76.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 21.5N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 25.5N  75.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016\r\n\r\nMatthew has continued to rapidly strengthen at a remarkable rate\r\ntoday.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported a peak\r\nSFMR wind of 116 kt and flight-level winds of 121 kt.  A recent\r\ndropsonde from the aircraft indicated that surface winds are around\r\n120 kt.  Based on all of these data, the initial intensity is set to\r\n120 kt, an increase of 55 kt in the last 24 hours.  The latest\r\npressure estimate from the aircraft is 949 mb, a drop of 44 mb since\r\nthis time yesterday.\r\n\r\nSome additional strengthening is possible in the next 12 hours or\r\nso, and the NHC forecast reflects that possibility, showing 125 kt\r\nat that time.  Given the lack of skill of the intensity guidance\r\nthus far, this remains a low confidence forecast, and its possible\r\nthis could be conservative.  Since Matthew has now become a major\r\nhurricane, eyewall replacement cycles could occur that would lead to\r\nsome fluctuations in intensity not shown here.  After 12 hours, a\r\ngradual weakening is shown, following the trend of, but above nearly\r\nall of the intensity guidance.  Land interaction with Cuba should\r\nlead to additional weakening by day 4, but Matthew is expected to\r\nremain a strong hurricane through the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is still toward the west-southwest, but the\r\nforward speed has slowed a bit, to around 8 kt.  The track forecast\r\nreasoning has not changed, with Matthew expected to turn westward by\r\n12 hours and then gradually turn toward the north in the next 3 to 4\r\ndays as the cyclone moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.\r\nThe track model guidance is in slightly better agreement this cycle\r\nthrough 3 days, although the ECMWF remains right of and slower than\r\nthe rest of the guidance at days 4 and 5.  The GFS, HWRF, and\r\nCOAMPS-TC are faster and to the left late in the period, although\r\nthe GFS has trended slower this cycle.  The new NHC track has again\r\nbeen adjusted a little to the left through 72 hours given the\r\ninitial position and motion, and after that time is along the\r\nprevious official forecast but slower, following the slower trend in\r\nthe guidance this cycle.  The NHC forecast is near the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model\r\nconsensus at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 13.5N  71.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 13.3N  72.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 13.5N  73.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 14.1N  74.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 15.2N  75.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 18.2N  76.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 22.0N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 25.0N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind\r\nof 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.\r\nFurthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably\r\nwith a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.\r\nThe raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since\r\n2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to\r\n140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane\r\nWind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic\r\nbasin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.\r\n\r\nMatthew probably is near its peak intensity and will likely maintain\r\na similar strength during the next 12 hours or so. Data from the\r\nreconnaissance plane show an incipient outer band of maximum\r\nwinds, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle could occur\r\nsoon. This should result in fluctuations in intensity, and given\r\nthat southwesterly shear is still affecting the cyclone, some\r\nweakening is anticipated. However, Matthew is forecast to be a\r\ncategory 4 hurricane by the time it moves near Jamaica and eastern\r\nCuba. Some additional weakening is expected over the high terrain of\r\nCuba.  It is noted that none the guidance ever indicated the rapid\r\nstrengthening of Matthew.\r\n\r\nMatthew is still moving south of due west or 265 degrees at 6 kt\r\nsteered by a strong high pressure system over the western Atlantic.\r\nIn about 12 hours, the hurricane should be on the western edge of\r\nthe high and ahead of a deepening trough over the Gulf of Mexico.\r\nThis steering pattern should force Matthew to turn northwestward and\r\nthen northward at about 5 to 10 kt. The track guidance has been very\r\nconsistent with this scenario, and there are no reasons to deviate\r\nmuch from the previous NHC forecast. At the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, when Matthew is expected to be in the Bahamas, the track\r\nmodels are in less agreement with both track and speed, increasing\r\nthe uncertainty in the forecast. The NHC forecast follows closely\r\nthe multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 13.3N  72.3W  140 KT 160 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 13.3N  73.3W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 13.7N  74.2W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 14.6N  75.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 16.0N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 19.0N  76.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 23.1N  76.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  06/0000Z 26.0N  76.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016\r\n\r\nMatthew has changed little in organization since the past advisory,\r\nwith a small eye surrounded by a central dense overcast featuring\r\ncloud tops colder than -80C.  The eye has become a little less\r\ndistinct, suggesting at least that the hurricane is no longer\r\nintensifying.  In addition, the raw intensity estimates from the\r\nCIMSS ADT technique are slightly lower than they were six hours\r\nago.  Based on these trends, the initial intensity is reduced to\r\n135 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled\r\nto reach Matthew near 1200 UTC.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 270/6.  Matthew remains south of a low-\r\nto mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic.  The dynamical models\r\nforecast this ridge to weaken over the next 72 hours as a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough develops over the Gulf of Mexico.  This\r\nevolution should cause Matthew to turn northwestward after 24 hours\r\nand northward by 48-72 hours.  The guidance generally agrees with\r\nthis scenario.  However, there is a spread between the GFS forecast\r\nof landfall in Jamaica and eastern Cuba and the ECMWF forecast\r\nlandfall in southwestern Haiti.  The guidance becomes more divergent\r\nafter 72 hours.  The GFS shows a turn toward the north-northwest,\r\nwhich brings the center closer to the northwestern Bahamas and\r\nFlorida. This model is near the western edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  The ECMWF is near the eastern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope and shows the center east of the Bahamas by 120 hours.\r\nAdding to the uncertainty is the eastward shift of the Canadian\r\nmodel since its previous run.  Given the uncertainty, the 96 and 120\r\nhour forecast points are changed only slightly from the previous\r\nforecast.  This part of the forecast track lies to the east of the\r\nGFS, but to the west of the Canadian, ECMWF, and NAVGEM models.  It\r\nis also a little to the west of the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nMatthew should experience significant shear for the next 24 hours or\r\nso, as water vapor imagery shows westerly flow blowing into the\r\nhurricane underneath the impressive outflow pattern.  This should\r\ncause some weakening.  After that time, the dynamical models suggest\r\nthe shear should decrease, which should allow Matthew to at least\r\nmaintain its intensity.  The new intensity forecast shows a\r\nslightly weaker intensity than the previous advisory through 72\r\nhours based mainly on current trends.  Subsequently, the hurricane\r\nis likely to interact with the land masses of Jamaica, Cuba, and\r\nHispaniola, leading to some weakening and disruption of the\r\nstructure.  Between this and uncertainty about how much shear\r\nMatthew will encounter north of Cuba, the new forecast shows only\r\nmodest strengthening after Matthew reaches the Atlantic north of\r\nCuba.  There is also the possibility of fluctuations in intensity\r\ncaused by eyewall replacement cycles at any time during the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 13.3N  72.8W  135 KT 155 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 13.3N  73.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 13.8N  74.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 14.9N  75.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 16.2N  75.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 19.5N  76.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 23.0N  76.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  06/0600Z 26.0N  76.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Matthew has shrunk and become less distinct in\r\ngeostationary imagery during the past few hours.  Data from an Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a very sharp wind\r\nprofile near the center and a radius of maximum winds of 7 n mi. The\r\ncentral pressure has risen a little, to 947 mb on the last center\r\nfix.  The highest SFMR wind sampled by the aircraft was 118 kt, so\r\nthe initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 125 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  Its possible that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun,\r\nbut there is not much evidence of a secondary wind maximum in the\r\naircraft data yet, and we haven't had any recent microwave imagery\r\nto look at the inner-core structure.\r\n\r\nGradual weakening is expected in the next 24 hours, in agreement\r\nwith all of the guidance, but Matthew is expected to remain a\r\npowerful hurricane until it until interacts with the land masses of\r\nJamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in 2-3 days.  After that time,\r\nconditions appear conducive for restrengthening once Matthew moves\r\ninto the Bahamas late in the forecast period.  Note that there will\r\nlikely be short-term fluctuations in intensity due to possible\r\neyewall replacement cycles that are not shown here.\r\n\r\nMatthew has been moving westward at around 5 kt under the influence\r\nof a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda.  This ridge is forecast\r\nto gradually weaken and shift eastward, which should allow Matthew\r\nto turn northward while it moves into a weakness in the ridge during\r\nthe forecast period.  The track model guidance is in generally good\r\nagreement on this scenario through 48 hours, and during that time\r\nthe new NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right toward\r\nthe latest consensus aids, but remains to their left and lies near\r\nthe latest GFS track.\r\n\r\nLate in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF\r\non the right and the GFS well to the left.  The evolution of the\r\nwestern Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be\r\nsensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low\r\ncurrently centered over the Ohio Valley.  The ECMWF shows a weaker\r\nridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has\r\na stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward.  Given\r\nthe uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these\r\nfeatures from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in\r\nbetween the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the\r\nprevious official forecast.  The new NHC track is well east of the\r\nlatest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids.  Needless\r\nto say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4\r\nand 5 is quite low.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 13.4N  73.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 13.6N  73.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 14.5N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 15.7N  75.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 17.1N  75.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 20.5N  75.5W   95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 24.0N  76.0W   95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n120H  06/1200Z 26.5N  76.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016\r\n\r\nMatthew's cloud pattern has improved this afternoon, with the small\r\neye becoming more distinct.  A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft\r\nrecently found peak SFMR winds of around 130 kt, and a peak\r\n7,000-ft flight-level wind of 135 kt.  The initial intensity is\r\nraised to 130 kt for this advisory.  The wind field has contracted\r\ntoday, and the radius of maximum winds is now about 6 n mi.  The\r\nlatest minimum pressure based on a dropsonde from the aircraft is\r\n940 mb.  Radar imagery from the NOAA plane suggests that an outer\r\neyewall may be forming, but the current eye has been resilient\r\ntoday.  Some gradual net weakening is expected during the next day\r\nor so, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane until\r\nit begins to interact with the landmasses of Jamaica, eastern Cuba,\r\nand Hispaniola in 48 to 72 hours.  Some weakening is expected during\r\nthat time, but conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once\r\nMatthew moves into the Bahamas late in the forecast period.  The NHC\r\nforecast is well above the intensity consensus through much of the\r\nperiod.  Note that there will likely be short-term fluctuations in\r\nintensity like we've seen today due to internal dynamics, including\r\neyewall replacement cycles, that are not shown here.\r\n\r\nMatthew has made a small cyclonic loop since the last advisory, and\r\nthe initial motion estimate is a northwestward drift at around 3 kt.\r\nThe mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda is expected to weaken and\r\nshift eastward, causing Matthew to turn northward while it moves\r\ninto a weakness in the ridge during the forecast period.  The track\r\nmodel guidance has shifted a little to the east in the short range,\r\nand the NHC track during this time has been adjusted in that\r\ndirection, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nLate in the period the track model spread remains considerable, as\r\nthe global models continue to have issues depicting the synoptic-\r\nscale pattern over the eastern United States and western Atlantic in\r\n4-5 days.  The evolution of the mid/upper-level low currently\r\ncentered over the Ohio Valley and how it interacts with the western\r\nAtlantic subtropical ridge appear to be critical to the long-term\r\ntrack of Matthew.  The UKMET and ECMWF tracks have shifted westward\r\nand slower by day 5, while the GFS has trended east.  This has\r\nnarrowed the guidance envelope somewhat, but given the lack of\r\nrun-to-run consistency I'd hesitate to say that confidence in the\r\nlong-range track forecast has increased by any appreciable measure.\r\nThe new NHC track at these times leans heavily on continuity, and by\r\nday 5 is close to the GFS/ECMWF blend and left of the latest\r\nmulti-model consensus aid TVCN.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 13.5N  73.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 13.6N  73.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 14.8N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 16.1N  74.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 17.6N  75.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 21.0N  75.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 24.5N  75.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  06/1800Z 26.5N  76.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016\r\n\r\nRecent satellite images suggest that the structure of Matthew has\r\nchanged little, and the winds are still estimated at 130 kt. The\r\nhurricane should experience some weakening during the next couple of\r\ndays, but Matthew is forecast to remain a powerful hurricane until\r\nit interacts with the high terrain of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba in\r\nabout 48 hours or so. Once Matthew reaches the Bahamas, the\r\nupper-level environment and warm waters will favor some\r\nrestrengthening. In the mean time, some short-term fluctuations in\r\nintensity are possible due to internal dynamics, including eyewall\r\nreplacement cycles, that are not included here. A better estimate\r\nof the intensity can be obtained when the next Air Force plane\r\nreaches Matthew at about 1130 UTC Sunday.\r\n\r\nA very convenient SSMIS pass at 0006 UTC was helpful in locating the\r\neye of Matthew, and after a period of little or no motion, the\r\nhurricane has apparently begun a north-northwest track at about 6\r\nkt. The steering pattern has not changed, and the motion of the\r\nhurricane for the next 2 to 3 days remains controlled by a\r\nmid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing mid-level\r\ntrough in the southern Gulf of Mexico and the northwestern\r\nCaribbean Sea. This flow pattern will steer Matthew toward the\r\nnorth-northwest and north toward western Haiti, eastern Cuba,\r\nand Jamaica during the next day or so. This portion of the NHC\r\nforecast track was shifted eastward following the trend of the\r\noverall guidance, primarily the multi-model consensus. Beyond 72\r\nhours, given the large spread of the guidance, the confidence in the\r\ntrack is low.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 13.8N  73.6W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 14.2N  73.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 15.3N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 16.7N  74.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 18.3N  74.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 22.0N  74.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 25.0N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  07/0000Z 27.5N  75.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016\r\n\r\nThe overall organization of the hurricane has changed little\r\novernight, with the small eye remaining distinct in infrared\r\nsatellite pictures.  A very recent AMSR2 microwave overpass showed\r\nno indication of an eyewall replacement, but there was a notable dry\r\nslot between the inner core and the outer bands over the southern\r\nportion of the circulation.  Although Dvorak data T-numbers\r\ndecreased slightly at 0600 UTC, the objective and subjective CI\r\nnumbers are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will\r\nremain 130 kt for this advisory.  Another Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Matthew this\r\nmorning, which should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's\r\ncurrent strength and structure. Although some weakening is predicted\r\nduring the next couple of days, Matthew is expected to remain a\r\npowerful hurricane when it approaches the islands of the Greater\r\nAntilles in a couple of days. The upper-level wind environment is\r\nexpected to remain favorable over the Bahamas, and warm waters in\r\nthat area should allow Matthew to maintain much of its intensity\r\nwhile it moves over that area later in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nMatthew has been moving slowly west-northwestward during the past\r\nfew hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is northwest or 320\r\ndegrees at 4 kt.  The forecast track reasoning remains unchanged\r\nfrom before.  Matthew should move slowly northwestward today,\r\nand then turn northward tonight as a mid- to upper-level trough\r\ndevelops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.  This motion will take\r\nMatthew towards Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba over the\r\nnext couple of days.  After that time, the global models bend\r\nMatthew back toward the north-northwest between the aforementioned\r\ntrough and a developing ridge off the northeast United States coast.\r\nThe dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario through\r\n72 hours, with increasing spread thereafter.  The GFS, ECMWF, and\r\nUKMET are along the western side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,\r\nwhile the HWRF is along the eastern side.  The latest NHC track is\r\nclose to the model consensus through day 3, but is west of the\r\nconsensus at 96 and 120 h, to be closer to the typically better\r\nperforming global models.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 13.9N  74.1W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 14.6N  74.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 15.6N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 17.1N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 18.8N  74.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 22.6N  74.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 25.5N  75.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  07/0600Z 28.0N  76.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Matthew has become obscured on visible satellite images,\r\nwhich is often an indication of weakening.  Microwave images showed\r\na distinct dry slot over the southwestern and western portions of\r\nthe circulation.  Also there has been a persistent, but\r\ninexplicable, cluster of deep convection located a couple of degrees\r\nto the east of the hurricane and the effect of this feature on\r\nMatthew's intensity evolution is unknown.  An Air Force Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft investigated the northeastern eyewall, the strongest\r\npart of the circulation, and found that the winds had decreased\r\nsomewhat from earlier this morning.  The intensity is set to 120 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  The vertical shear is not forecast to become\r\nmuch stronger while Matthew is in the Caribbean, so the hurricane\r\nshould remain near category 4 status for the next 36-48 hours.  Once\r\nMatthew moves into the Atlantic, some increase in shear along with\r\na decrease in oceanic heat content should result in a little\r\nweakening.  However, there is significant uncertainty in the 3-5 day\r\nforecast intensities.\r\n\r\nAfter a northwestward motion, the center has meandered westward\r\nover the past few hours.  Matthew is expected to turn northward and\r\nmove between a mid-level ridge to the east and a weak trough over\r\nthe Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.  Later in the forecast\r\nperiod, the global models show a slight building of a ridge to the\r\nnortheast of Matthew which would induce a turn toward the left in\r\n3-5 days.  The timing and magnitude of this turn is still uncertain\r\nhowever.  Looking at the better-performing models, the track\r\nguidance suite is bracketed by the GFS model on the left and the\r\nHWRF model on the right.  The official forecast is slightly west of\r\nthe multi-model consensus and very similar to the previous NHC\r\ntrack.\r\n\r\nIt is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast\r\nerrors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.\r\nTherefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nfrom Matthew in Florida.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 14.0N  74.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 14.9N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 16.1N  75.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 17.7N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 19.5N  74.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 23.2N  75.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 26.5N  76.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  07/1200Z 29.5N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016\r\n\r\nAfter temporarily losing some of its organization this morning,\r\nMatthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance.  The\r\neye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more\r\ndistinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a\r\nbit more symmetric.  Consistent with these changes, observations\r\nfrom the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that some\r\nstrengthening has taken place.  The advisory intensity is set\r\nto 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed\r\nsurface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft.\r\n\r\nDynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew\r\nshould remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone\r\nmoves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in\r\nintensity.  However, interactions with land should cause some\r\nweakening during the next couple of days.  Aside from that, some\r\nfluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nEarlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours,\r\nbut recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is\r\nnorthwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt.  The track forecast\r\nreasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package.\r\nMatthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western\r\nside of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days.\r\nLater in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north\r\nof the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left.  In\r\ngeneral, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with\r\nthe exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an\r\noutlier.  The official track forecast is along essentially the same\r\ntrajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before.\r\nThis is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough the official forecast continues to show a track east of\r\nFlorida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible\r\nhurricane impacts there.  It is also too soon to know whether, or\r\nhow, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east\r\ncoast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 14.6N  74.8W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 15.4N  74.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 16.7N  74.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 18.3N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 20.1N  74.5W  110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 23.6N  75.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 26.8N  76.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 30.0N  76.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-10-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating\r\nMatthew this evening has yet to report flight-level or surface\r\nwinds anywhere close to the 130-kt winds measured in the previous\r\nflight, recent aircraft data have indicated that the surface\r\npressure and 700-mb height have both decreased since the previous\r\nflight. The eye has cleared out in infrared satellite imagery and\r\ncloud tops have cooled around the 8-12 nmi diameter eye. Given the\r\nlower central pressure of 943 mb, which corresponds to about 120 kt\r\non the Dvorak pressure-wind relationship, the small eye, and recent\r\nNHC objective T-numbers of T6.3/123 kt to T6.5/127 kt, the initial\r\nintensity will remain at 125 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nMatthew has continued to meander and wobble over the past several\r\nhours, but the best estimate of the forward motion based on recent\r\nrecon fixes is 360/04 kt. Although some erratic motion could still\r\noccur due to Matthew interacting with a large convective complex and\r\nmid-/upper-level vortex located about 150 nmi east of Matthew, the\r\ncyclone is expected to move in a general northward direction for the\r\nnext 48 hours or so. After clearing the northeastern coast of Cuba,\r\nMatthew is expected to turn toward the north-northwest within\r\nsoutheasterly flow between the western periphery of a strong ridge\r\nlocated over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak mid- to\r\nupper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of\r\nMexico. The 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now\r\nshow a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger\r\nstorm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is\r\nforecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected.\r\nThis has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over\r\nthe southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have\r\nresponded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been\r\nshifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track,\r\nmainly to account for the more westward initial position. However,\r\nthe forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and\r\nGFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model.\r\n\r\nMatthew is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear\r\nenvironment for the next 36-48 hours, with the shear reaching near\r\nzero values by 24 hours. This condition, along with the very\r\nfavorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery,\r\nshould allow for the cyclone to at least maintain its current\r\nintensity, barring the eye making any direct interactions with\r\nJamaica or Haiti. By 48 hours, however, land interaction with\r\neastern Cuba should induce more significant weakening. The official\r\nintensity forecast remains near or above the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough the official forecast continues to show a track east of\r\nFlorida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts\r\nthere.  It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might\r\naffect the remainder of the United States east coast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 14.7N  75.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 15.7N  75.1W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 17.1N  75.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 18.8N  74.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 20.6N  74.9W  105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 24.0N  75.6W  105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 27.1N  76.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 30.1N  76.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-10-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016\r\n\r\nThe Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission that ended shortly\r\nbefore 0600 UTC did not find flight-level or surface winds as high\r\nas reported during the previous flight yesterday afternoon.  It is\r\nnot clear from microwave imagery if the reduction in winds is the\r\nresult of an eyewall replacement.  There was no evidence of a double\r\nwind maximum in the aircraft data, but the crew reported that the\r\neyewall was open to the southwest.  Using a blend of the aircraft\r\ndata and recent satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity\r\nhas been reduced to 115 kt for this advisory.  The center of Matthew\r\nhas recently passed over NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean\r\nSea, which reported a minimum pressure of 943 mb and light winds\r\naround 0650 UTC.\r\n\r\nSatellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving northward\r\nor 360/5 kt.  The hurricane is expected to move generally northward\r\naround the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the\r\nwest-central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and little\r\nchange was needed to the NHC forecast through 48 hours.   Once\r\nMatthew moves near the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, it is\r\nforecast to turn northwestward or north-northwestward in\r\nsoutheasterly flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level\r\nlow/trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern\r\nCaribbean Sea.  The model guidance is in relatively good agreement\r\nthrough 72 hours, but begin to diverge by days 4 and 5.  The UKMET\r\nwhich was previously the western outlier, has shifted eastward this\r\ncycle, and is now close to the GFS.  The 0000 UTC ECMWF trended\r\nwestward and that model is now along the western edge of the\r\nguidance envelope.  The NHC track has been nudged westward at days\r\n4 and 5, and lies close to the GFS and UKMET solutions.  This is a\r\nbit west of the model consensus since the higher quality models\r\nare on that side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nMatthew is forecast to remain in low shear and over warm water\r\nwhile it moves northward toward the Greater Antilles.  Some\r\nrestrengthening is possible, but fluctuations in intensity are\r\nlikely due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. Some\r\nweakening is forecast when the hurricane interacts with land in a\r\ncouple of days, however Matthew is expected to remain a powerful\r\nhurricane throughout much of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nAlthough the official forecast continues to show a track east of\r\nFlorida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane\r\nimpacts there.  It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew\r\nmight affect the remainder of the United States east coast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 15.2N  74.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 16.2N  74.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 17.9N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 19.7N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 21.4N  74.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 24.6N  75.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 27.6N  76.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 30.8N  77.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-10-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016\r\n\r\nThe latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew\r\nfound peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak\r\nSFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z.  Based\r\non these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of\r\n14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central\r\npressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb.  Little overall change\r\nin intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the\r\nexception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with\r\nHaiti and eastern Cuba.  However, there could be fluctuations in\r\nintensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.\r\nWhile Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into\r\nthe Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat\r\ncontent decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous\r\nhurricane through the next 5 days.\r\n\r\nMatthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should\r\ncontinue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours\r\naround the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.\r\nDuring this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement\r\nand the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the\r\nconsensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope.  After that\r\ntime, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models\r\ncontinuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the\r\nridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large\r\namount of along and cross track spread at these times.  The ECMWF\r\nand UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,\r\nwith the other models farther east.  The new NHC track is a bit left\r\nof the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a\r\nlittle left of the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nWhile all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew\r\neast of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global\r\nensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out.  In\r\naddition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew\r\ncould affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 15.6N  75.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 17.0N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 18.9N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 20.8N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 22.6N  74.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 25.5N  76.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 28.5N  77.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 32.0N  77.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-10-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016\r\n\r\nMatthew's structure has not changed much today.  The most recent Air\r\nForce Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission found peak SFMR winds of 124\r\nkt on their last pass through the northeastern eyewall, and a peak\r\nflight-level wind of 118 kt.  Based on a blend of these data, the\r\ninitial intensity is held at 120 kt for this advisory. The central\r\npressure has been steady around 940 mb for much of the day.\r\nMatthew's satellite presentation remains impressive, with a 15 n mi\r\nwide eye surrounded by convective tops of -80C or colder and\r\nexcellent outflow, especially poleward.  Little change in intensity\r\nis expected during the next couple of days, with the exception of\r\nsome possible weakening due to land interaction with Haiti and\r\neastern Cuba.  However, there could be fluctuations in intensity due\r\nto eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. While Matthew is\r\nexpected to be a little weaker once it moves into the Bahamas as the\r\nshear increases somewhat and the ocean heat content decreases a\r\nlittle, it is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through the\r\nnext 5 days, as shown by the global models. The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to or a little above the latest intensity\r\nconsensus through 4 days and is closest to the GFDL model at day 5.\r\n\r\nMatthew is now moving a little to the east of due north, or 010/06.\r\nThe short term track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the\r\nhurricane will move generally northward for the next 24 to 36 hours\r\naround the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.  The\r\nnew NHC track forecast during this time has been nudged eastward\r\ntoward the latest multi-model consensus aids, and continues to show\r\nthe core of the dangerous hurricane moving near or over the\r\nsouthwestern peninsula of Haiti tonight and near or over eastern\r\nCuba on Tuesday.\r\n\r\nAt 48 hours and beyond, the GFS has trended sharply westward, and\r\nnow is in agreement with the UKMET and ECMWF in showing the western\r\nextent of the Atlantic subtropical ridge nosing north of Matthew\r\nacross the Carolinas in 3-4 days.  This results in Matthew taking a\r\nmore northwesterly track across the Bahamas, and closer to the\r\nFlorida peninsula during this time.  The UKMET is farthest west,\r\nwith a track over the east coast of Florida and into South Carolina\r\nin 4-5 days.  The GFS, ECMWF, and the GFDL model are a little\r\nfarther east and remain close to but offshore of Florida.  The GFDL\r\nand GFS are close to southeastern North Carolina by day 5, while the\r\nECMWF is slower. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted\r\nsignificantly westward at days 3-5, and now lies near the middle of\r\nthe guidance envelope and close to the ECMWF/GFS blend.  While there\r\nremains significant uncertainty in the track of Matthew in the long\r\nrange, the threat to Florida and the southeastern U.S. coast has\r\nincreased.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the\r\nBahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services\r\nand other government officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this\r\nweek.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches could be issued\r\nsometime tonight or early tomorrow for portions of the Florida\r\npeninsula and the Florida Keys.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of\r\nGeorgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this\r\nweekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too\r\nsoon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on\r\nthe remainder of the U.S. east coast.  At a minimum, very dangerous\r\nbeach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east\r\ncoast later this week and weekend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 16.3N  74.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 17.4N  74.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 19.2N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 21.0N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 22.8N  75.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 26.0N  78.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 29.5N  79.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 33.0N  78.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-10-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 03 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft this evening measured\r\ntwo peak SFMR winds of 125 kt in the northeastern eyewall, along\r\nwith a peak flight-level wind of 129 kt. The lowest pressure\r\nmeasured by a dropsonde has been 934 mb, down 6 mb since the\r\nprevious flight. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been\r\nincreased to 125 kt.\r\n\r\nMatthew continues to move a little east of due north, or 010/07 kt.\r\nThere is no change to the previous short-term track forecast\r\nreasoning. Matthew is expected to move northward around the western\r\nperiphery of a strong deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours,\r\nfollowed by a north-northwestward motion at 36 and 48 hours. That\r\nportion of the new forecast track is essentially the same as the\r\nprevious advisory, bringing Matthew over the southwestern peninsula\r\nof Haiti tonight and near or over eastern Cuba on Tuesday. Beyond 48\r\nhours, the GFS has again trended westward, and now lies closer to\r\nthe UKMET model track. This change might be related to the\r\nmid-/upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of\r\nMexico, which is now forecast to split, with the northern portion\r\nlifting out to the northeast and dissipating while the southern\r\nportion cuts of into a low pressure system that drops southward over\r\nthe northwestern Caribbean Sea by 36-48 hours.   The new track\r\nforecast has again been shifted westward closer to Florida, and lies\r\nnear a blend of the 18Z GFS and 12Z ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nOnly slight weakening is expected during the next couple of days due\r\nto Matthew interacting with the land masses of western Haiti and\r\neastern Cuba. After the hurricane emerges over the Atlantic waters\r\nbetween Cuba and the Bahamas, low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs\r\nof near 30C should help Matthew to recover some before southwesterly\r\nwind shear increases by 96-120 hours and induces a faster rate of\r\nweakening. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically identical to\r\nthe previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the\r\nBahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services\r\nand other government officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this\r\nweek.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely tomorrow\r\nmorning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of\r\nGeorgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this\r\nweekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too\r\nsoon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on\r\nthe remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north.  At a minimum,\r\nvery dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of\r\nthe U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 16.9N  74.6W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 18.3N  74.5W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 20.0N  74.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 21.8N  75.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 23.4N  76.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 26.6N  78.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 30.0N  79.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 33.3N  77.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-10-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Matthew remains very impressive this\r\nmorning. The eye was obscured during part of the night, but has\r\nbecome more distinct and slightly larger during the past couple of\r\nhours. Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, the Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb\r\nflight level wind of 142 kt, and SFMR winds of 127 kt in the\r\nnortheast quadrant.  During the final passage through the eye a\r\nlittle before 0500 UTC, the aircraft reported a minimum pressure of\r\n934 mb. These data still support an initial intensity of 125 kt.\r\nThe next reconnaissance aircraft mission is scheduled to be in\r\nMatthew before 1200 UTC this morning.\r\n\r\nRecent satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still\r\nmoving a little east of due north or 005/8 kt.  Matthew is expected\r\nto move generally northward around the western periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer ridge today and tonight.  This will bring the center of\r\nMatthew near or over the southwestern peninsula of Haiti within the\r\nnext few hours, and near the eastern tip of Cuba later today. After\r\nmoving north of Cuba, Matthew is expected to turn\r\nnorth-northwestward, then northwestward by 48 hours, as the western\r\nportion of the aforementioned ridge builds westward to the north of\r\nthe hurricane.  Between days 3 and 4, Matthew should round the\r\nwestern periphery of the ridge and turn northward, then\r\nnorth-northeastward ahead of a trough approaching the east\r\ncoast of the United States late in the period.  Most of the\r\ndynamical models shows a track near the east coast of Florida\r\nand the southeast United States from days 3 through 5.  The NHC\r\ntrack is largely unchanged through 48 hours, but has been adjusted\r\nslightly westward after that time, and is close to the consensus\r\nof the ECMWF and GFS.  Users are reminded not to focus on the exact\r\nforecast track since strong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous\r\nstorm surge will extend far from the center of Matthew.\r\n\r\nAlthough some slight weakening due to land interaction is possible\r\ntoday, warm waters and a favorable upper-level wind pattern should\r\nallow Matthew to remain a very strong hurricane during the next\r\ncouple of days.  Gradual weakening is predicted later in the\r\nforecast period due to an increase in southwesterly shear and\r\ncooler SSTs, however Matthew is forecast to remain a hurricane\r\nduring the entire 5 day period.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the\r\nBahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services\r\nand other government officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this\r\nweek.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches are likely later\r\nthis morning for portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida\r\nKeys.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of\r\nGeorgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this\r\nweekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too\r\nsoon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on\r\nthe remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north.  At a minimum,\r\nvery dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of\r\nthe U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 17.8N  74.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 19.2N  74.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 21.0N  74.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 22.8N  75.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 24.6N  76.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 28.0N  79.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 31.7N  79.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 35.5N  75.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown/Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Hurricane Matthew was quite distinct when it made\r\nlandfall near Les Anglais, Haiti at 1100 UTC this morning,\r\nbut since that time the eye has become obscured on conventional\r\nimagery. A reconnaissance plane measured SFMR winds of 118 kt\r\nearlier today, but the entire area has not been sampled yet by the\r\nplane. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt in\r\nthis advisory. Some slight weakening could occur today while Matthew\r\ninteracts with the high terrain of Cuba and Haiti, but the\r\nenvironment is favorable for the hurricane to maintain category 4\r\nstatus for the next 2 days.  Some weakening is anticipated by the\r\nend of the forecast period due to an increase of the wind shear.\r\n\r\nRadar fixes from Cuba and satellite data indicate that Matthew is\r\nmoving toward the north or 360 degrees at about 9 kt.  The hurricane\r\nis being steered by the flow around the western edge of a\r\nsubtropical ridge. Most of the global models build the ridge\r\nwestward, and this pattern should force the hurricane to turn\r\ntoward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the waters just east\r\nof Florida. Beyond 3 days, the ridge is forecast to shift eastward\r\nallowing Matthew to turn northward and then northeastward.\r\nUsers are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track since\r\nstrong winds, heavy rainfall, and a dangerous storm surge will\r\nextend far from the center of Matthew. Most of the models shows a\r\nstrong hurricane near the east coast of Florida and the southeast\r\nUnited States from days 2 through 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the watch and warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the\r\nBahamas.  Please consult statements from the meteorological services\r\nand other government officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  Direct hurricane impacts are possible in Florida later this\r\nweek.  Tropical storm and/or hurricane watches have been issued\r\nfor portions of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of\r\nGeorgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this\r\nweekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too\r\nsoon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on\r\nthe remainder of the U.S. east coast farther north.  At a minimum,\r\nvery dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of\r\nthe U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 18.9N  74.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 20.3N  74.3W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 22.0N  74.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 24.0N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 25.6N  77.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 29.5N  79.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 34.0N  78.5W   90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  09/1200Z 39.5N  72.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Hurricane Matthew is not as distinct as it was earlier\r\ntoday, and the change in the overall pattern suggests that the\r\ncyclone is a little weaker due to the interaction with the nearby\r\nhigh terrain. The initial intensity has been lowered to 120 kt and\r\nsome slight additional weakening could occur tonight while Matthew's\r\ncirculation continues to interact with Cuba and Hispaniola. Once\r\nMatthew moves into the Bahamas, the environment is favorable for the\r\nhurricane to maintain category 4 status for the next 2 days. Some\r\nweakening is anticipated beyond 3 days due to an increase of the\r\nwind shear.\r\n\r\nEarlier reconnaissance aircraft fixes, satellite and radar data from\r\nCuba indicate that Matthew is moving toward the north or 360 degrees\r\nat about 8 kt.  The hurricane continues to be steered by the flow\r\naround the western edge of a subtropical ridge. Most of the global\r\nmodels build the ridge westward, and this pattern should force the\r\nhurricane to turn toward the northwest across the Bahamas and to the\r\nwaters just east of Florida. The most interesting change this\r\nafternoon is that the ECMWF has forecast a stronger western Atlantic\r\nridge than in previous runs. This evolution resulted in an\r\nadditional leftward shift of the ECMWF track and consequently, the\r\nNHC forecast has also been adjusted to the left, necessitating the\r\nsouthward extension of the hurricane watch in Florida. Beyond 3\r\ndays, the ridge is forecast to move eastward, allowing Matthew to\r\nturn northward and then northeastward.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.\r\nPlease consult statements from the meteorological services and other\r\ngovernment officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this\r\nfar in advance.  For example, only a small deviation of the track to\r\nthe left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep\r\nall of the hurricane-force winds offshore.  It will likely take\r\nanother day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United\r\nStates to clarify.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of\r\nFlorida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South\r\nCarolina, and North Carolina  later this week or this weekend, even\r\nif the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to\r\nspecify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the\r\nremainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north.  At a\r\nminimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely\r\nalong much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 19.8N  74.3W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 21.1N  74.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 22.5N  75.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 24.0N  76.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 25.9N  78.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 29.5N  80.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 40.0N  71.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 04 2016\r\n\r\nHurricane Matthew made landfall along the extreme eastern coast of\r\nCuba near Juaco around 0000 UTC this evening, and the eye is just\r\nnow moving off of the northeastern coast of Cuba. Some weakening has\r\noccurred due to interaction with the mountains of eastern Cuba and\r\nwestern Haiti. However, latest reports from an Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft indicate that the central pressure hasn't\r\nrisen much and that the maximum winds have only decreased to an\r\nestimated 115 kt, keeping Matthew a dangerous category four\r\nhurricane.\r\n\r\nRadar and recon fixes indicate that Matthew is moving slightly west\r\nof due north, or 350/07 kt. Matthew is expected to begin turning\r\ntoward the north-northwest during the next 12 hours or so, followed\r\nby a northwestward motion in 24-48 hours as the large ridge to the\r\nnorth of the powerful hurricane begins to build westward across the\r\nsoutheastern United States in response to a broad trough over the\r\ncentral U.S. weakening and lifting out to the northeast. The next\r\nupstream weather system that will affect the steering currents\r\nsurrrounding Matthew is a large trough currently approaching the\r\nnorthwestern U.S. and southwestern Canada. That system is forecast\r\nto dig southeastward and amplify over the central U.S. during next\r\nseveral days, resulting in significant ridging downstream over the\r\nnortheastern United States. As the next ridge builds and lifts\r\nnorthward, Matthew is expected to turn northward as well by 72\r\nhours, and turn northeastward after that as the aforementioned\r\ntrough moves eastward into the eastern United States by 96-120\r\nhours.  The official forecast track remains close to a blend of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe current 10-15 kt of northwesterly vertical wind shear is\r\nforecast to weaken to around 5 kt by 36-48 hours while Matthew is\r\nmoving over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, where SSTs are\r\nexpected to be near 30 deg C.  That combination, along with high\r\nmid-level humidity, should enable Matthew to maintain category four\r\nstatus, although eyewall replacement cycles, which can not be\r\nforecast with any skill, could result in fluctuations in the\r\nintensity not shown by the official forecast. By 72 hours and\r\nbeyond, steadily increasing vertical wind shear is expected to\r\ninduce gradual weakening. The official intensity forecast is close\r\nto but slightly above the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.\r\nPlease consult statements from the meteorological services and other\r\ngovernment officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this\r\nfar in advance.  For example, only a small deviation of the track to\r\nthe left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep\r\nall of the hurricane-force winds offshore.  It will likely take\r\nanother day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United\r\nStates to clarify.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of\r\nFlorida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South\r\nCarolina, and North Carolina  later this week or this weekend, even\r\nif the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to\r\nspecify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the\r\nremainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north.  At a\r\nminimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely\r\nalong much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 20.4N  74.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 21.7N  74.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 23.3N  76.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 25.0N  77.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 26.7N  79.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 30.3N  80.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 33.2N  78.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 37.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Matthew has degraded since its\r\ninteraction with the mountains terrain of eastern Cuba with the\r\neye no longer discernible in infrared satellite pictures. Data from\r\nthe Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Matthew has\r\nweakened slightly.  The aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level\r\nwinds of 118 kt and SFMR winds of 109 kt to the northeast of the\r\ncenter. Based on these data the initial wind speed has been lowered\r\nto 110 kt.  Matthew will be moving over sea surface temperatures of\r\n29 to 30 degrees Celsius and the shear is expected to remain low\r\nduring the next couple of days.  These conditions should allow some\r\nslight restrengthening while it moves through the Bahamas.\r\nIncreasing shear later in the forecast period is likely to cause\r\ngradual weakening.\r\n\r\nMatthew is moving northward or 350/8 kt.  A northwestward turn is\r\nexpected to occur today as the ridge to the north of Matthew builds\r\nwestward.  This should steer the hurricane through the Bahamas and\r\nnear the east coast of Florida during the next 48 hours.  After that\r\ntime, the global models turn the hurricane northward, then\r\nnortheastward when a ridge to the northeast of Matthew shifts\r\neastward and a mid- to upper-level trough approaches the eastern\r\nUnited States.  The 0000 UTC GFS has shifted slightly west of the\r\nprevious run, and is now close to the UKMET and ECWMF tracks.  The\r\nnew NHC forecast is very similar to the previous advisory through\r\n72 hours, and shows a track very close to much of the east coast\r\nof the Florida peninsula.  Only a slight deviation to the west of\r\nforecast track could result in landfall in Florida. The last few\r\niterations of the global models have been trending toward a solution\r\nin which the trough is not deep enough to completely lift Matthew\r\nnortheastward.  As a result, the NHC track has been shifted\r\nsignificantly southward at day 5, but it remains well north of\r\nthe GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas.\r\nPlease consult statements from the meteorological services and other\r\ngovernment officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this\r\nfar in advance.  For example, only a small deviation of the track to\r\nthe left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep\r\nall of the hurricane-force winds offshore.  It will likely take\r\nanother day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United\r\nStates to clarify.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,\r\nSouth Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,\r\neven if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to\r\nspecify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the\r\nremainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north.  At a\r\nminimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely\r\nalong much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In\r\naddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\r\nout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding\r\npotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 21.1N  74.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 22.3N  75.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 23.9N  76.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 25.5N  78.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 27.2N  79.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 30.5N  80.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 32.8N  77.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 33.1N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nBoth NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes have been in the eye\r\nof Matthew during the past several hours.  Data from those planes\r\nindicate that the hurricane is gradually recovering from the\r\npassage over the mountains of eastern Cuba and Haiti. The eye is\r\nbecoming better defined on satellite. Based on SFMR winds of\r\n103 kt and a flight-level peak wind of 118 kt, the initial\r\nintensity is 105 kt.\r\n\r\nThe environment between the Bahamas and Florida is favorable for\r\nMatthew to restrengthen some during the next couple of days.\r\nAfter that time, the shear is forecast to increase, resulting in\r\ngradual weakening.\r\n\r\nFixes from the planes indicate that Matthew is moving toward the\r\nnorthwest or 325 degrees at about 8 to 10 kt. The subtropical ridge\r\nover the western Atlantic is amplifying as anticipated by the\r\nglobal models.  The flow pattern around this ridge should continue\r\nto steer the hurricane toward the northwest during the next day or\r\ntwo with no significant change in forward speed. After that time\r\nthe ridge will move east allowing Matthew to move northward very\r\nnear or over the Florida east coast and then near or to the east of\r\nthe Georgia and South Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, models have changed significantly since yesterday.\r\nSome track models keep the hurricane moving eastward across the\r\nAtlantic while the GFS and the ECMWF reduce the hurricane's forward\r\nspeed with a southward turn. This change in these two valuable\r\nmodels is reflected in the current NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in\r\nportions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas.\r\nPlease consult statements from the meteorological services and other\r\ngovernment officials in those countries.\r\n\r\n2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at\r\nany one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track\r\nto the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.\r\nHowever, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-\r\nforce winds offshore.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia,\r\nSouth Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend,\r\neven if the center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to\r\ndetermine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by\r\nMatthew next week.  At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating\r\nconditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the\r\nnext several days.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In\r\naddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\r\nout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding\r\npotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 21.8N  75.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 23.1N  76.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 24.8N  77.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 26.6N  79.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 28.2N  80.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 31.5N  80.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 32.5N  76.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 32.0N  74.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane a couple of hours ago\r\nindicated that the structure of Matthew had not changed very much,\r\nand the initial intensity remains at 105 kt. Another Hurricane\r\nHunter plane will be in the eye soon.   The environment continues to\r\nbe favorable for Matthew to restrengthen while it approaches the\r\nthe east coast of Florida during the next day or so.  After that\r\ntime, the shear is forecast to increase significantly, resulting in\r\ngradual weakening of the hurricane.\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Matthew is moving toward the\r\nnorthwest or 325 degrees at about 10 kt. The subtropical ridge over\r\nthe western Atlantic is still strong, and the flow pattern around\r\nthis ridge should continue to steer the hurricane toward the\r\nnorthwest during the next day or two with no significant change in\r\nforward speed. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward,\r\nallowing Matthew to move northward very near or over the north\r\nFlorida east coast, and then near or to the east of the Georgia and\r\nSouth Carolina coasts. By the end of the forecast period, models\r\ndiverge considerably, with the GFS moving the cyclone southwestward\r\ntoward land, and the ECMWF keeping Matthew over the Atlantic a good\r\ndistance from the coast. The NHC forecast keeps Matthew over water\r\nin the middle of these two model solutions.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas.  Please\r\nconsult statements from the meteorological service and other\r\ngovernment officials in that country.\r\n\r\n2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at\r\nany one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track\r\nto the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.\r\nHowever, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-\r\nforce winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in impacts are\r\npossible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and\r\nGeorgia.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South\r\nCarolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if\r\nthe center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to determine\r\nwhat, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next\r\nweek.  At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are\r\nlikely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several\r\ndays.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In\r\naddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\r\nout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding\r\npotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in\r\nFlorida and Georgia.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 22.5N  75.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 24.0N  76.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 25.6N  78.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 27.2N  79.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 29.0N  80.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 32.0N  79.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 32.6N  76.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 30.0N  74.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nData from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nshowed lower winds in Matthew than seen during the previous\r\nmission, with peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 103 kt and estimates\r\nnear 95 kt from the SFMR instrument.  Based on these, the initial\r\nintensity is reduced to 100 kt.  However, satellite imagery\r\nindicates that the hurricane is becoming better organized, with the\r\neye trying to re-appear and cooling cloud tops near the center.  In\r\naddition, the eye has contracted to 15 n mi wide and the central\r\npressure has fallen to 961 mb.  This suggests that the winds are\r\nabout to increase.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 320/9.  There is little change to the\r\nsynoptic reasoning or the forecast track through 48 hours.  Matthew\r\nis expected to move around the western side of the subtropical\r\nridge, which should move slowly eastward during the next couple of\r\ndays.  This evolution should steer Matthew generally northwestward\r\nfor the next 24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the\r\nnorth-northwest.  This forecast track takes the center near Andros\r\nIsland and New Providence in about 12 hours, and then very near the\r\neastern coast of the the Florida peninsula.  This part of the\r\nforecast track is west of the various consensus models, but it lies\r\nnear the GFS, ECMWF, and ECMWF ensemble mean.  From 48-72 hours, the\r\ncyclone is expected to recurve northeastward along the southern edge\r\nof the mid-latitude westerlies.  After 72 hours, the track guidance\r\nbecome very divergent, with solutions ranging from a continued\r\neastward motion out to sea to a turn back to the southwest.  The new\r\nforecast track shows a slow southeastward motion during this time\r\nin best agreement with the ECMWF.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned above, Matthew is getting better organized, and during\r\nthe next 36 hours or so it should be moving through an area of\r\nlight vertical wind shear.  This should allow strengthening, and\r\nthe new intensity forecast calls for the system to reach an\r\nintensity near 115 kt in about 36 hours.  This is near the upper\r\nend of the intensity guidance.  After 36 hours, proximity to land\r\nand increasing shear should cause weakening, and the cyclone is now\r\nexpected to be down to tropical storm strength by 120 hours.\r\nOverall, the intensity forecast is in best agrement with the SHIPS\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas.  Please\r\nconsult statements from the meteorological service and other\r\ngovernment officials in that country.\r\n\r\n2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at\r\nany one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track\r\nto the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.\r\nHowever, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-\r\nforce winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in impacts are\r\npossible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and\r\nGeorgia.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South\r\nCarolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if\r\nthe center of Matthew remains offshore.  It is too soon to determine\r\nwhat, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next\r\nweek.  At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are\r\nlikely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several\r\ndays.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In\r\naddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\r\nout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding\r\npotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in\r\nFlorida and Georgia.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 23.4N  76.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 24.6N  77.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 26.4N  79.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 28.2N  80.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 30.1N  81.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 32.5N  78.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 32.0N  75.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 30.5N  73.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Matthew has improved markedly\r\novernight with eye reappearing and warming within the past couple\r\nof hours.  The eye is also embedded within a very symmetric\r\ncentral dense overcast with cloud tops colder than -70C.  An Air\r\nForce Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunter that just flew through the\r\ncenter reported peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 132 kt, SFMR\r\nwinds around 103 kt, and a pressure of 944 mb, which is\r\ndown about 18 mb from last evening.  Using a blend of the\r\nflight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity is set at\r\n110 kt. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued\r\nstrengthening today and Matthew is expected to become an extremely\r\ndangerous category 4 hurricane while it moves over the northwestern\r\nBahamas and approaches the east coast of Florida.  After 24 hours,\r\nland interaction is likely to cause some weakening, and later in the\r\nperiod increasing shear should cause a more rapid decrease in\r\nwinds. The NHC forecast is above the most of guidance during the\r\nfirst 24 hours due to the recent increase in organization, but is\r\nclose to the consensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nAircraft and satellite fixes show that Matthew is moving\r\nnorthwestward or 320/10 kt.  Matthew is expected to move around\r\nthe western periphery of a subtropical ridge that is forecast to\r\ngradually retreat eastward during the next day or two.  This\r\npattern should steer Matthew northwestward over the northwestern\r\nBahamas today, then north-northwestward very near the east coast\r\nof Florida late today through Friday night. The models are tightly\r\nclustered through 48 hours, and the NHC track is near the consensus\r\nof the GFS and ECMWF models through that time.  After 48 hours, the\r\nhurricane should turn northeastward as a broad trough approaches\r\nthe Great Lakes region. The trough is expected to pass north of\r\nMatthew in about 72 hours, which is expected to cause the cyclone to\r\nturn eastward, then southeastward late in the forecast period.\r\nThere is still significant spread in the long-range guidance so\r\nthere is lower than normal confidence in the days 4 and 5 track\r\nprediction.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the central and\r\nnorthwestern Bahamas today, and along portions of the east\r\ncoast of Florida tonight.\r\n\r\n2.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at\r\nany one location.  For example, only a small deviation of the track\r\nto the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and\r\nGeorgia.  However, a small deviation to the right could keep the\r\nhurricane-force winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in\r\nimpacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northeast\r\nGeorgia and South Carolina.\r\n\r\n3.  Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect eastern\r\nNorth Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center\r\nof Matthew remains offshore.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In\r\naddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\r\nout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding\r\npotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in\r\nFlorida and Georgia.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 24.2N  77.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 25.5N  78.4W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 27.2N  79.9W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 29.0N  80.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 30.7N  80.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 32.4N  77.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 31.0N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 29.5N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to\r\nimprove, with a distinct eye surrounded by very deep convection,\r\nand T-numbers are oscillating around 6.0 on the Dvorak scale.  Data\r\nfrom an Air Force reconnaissance plane traversing the eye of the\r\nhurricane also indicate that Matthew has strengthened.  The initial\r\nintensity is estimated at 120 kt, based mainly on SFMR data\r\nand an eyewall dropsonde.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for additional\r\nintensification today while Matthew approaches the east coast of\r\nFlorida.  After 24 hours, land interaction is likely to cause some\r\nweakening, and later in the period increasing shear should cause a\r\nmore rapid decrease in winds. The NHC forecast is slightly above\r\nmost of the guidance during the first 24 hours due to the recent\r\nintensification, and follows the weakening trend of the consensus\r\nthereafter.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving toward the northwest or\r\n325 degrees at 10 kt. The steering flow has not changed and Matthew\r\nis expected to move around the western periphery of the subtropical\r\nridge located over the western Atlantic during the next 24 to 36\r\nhours. After that time, the ridge will shift eastward allowing\r\nthe hurricane to move northward and then sharply turn eastward\r\nwhile it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. By\r\nthe end of the forecast period the steering pattern is forecast\r\nto change again and a weakening cyclone is expected to turn\r\nsouthward.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas\r\ntoday, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida\r\ntonight.\r\n\r\n2.  Evacuations are not just a coastal event.  Strong winds will\r\noccur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile\r\nhomes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.\r\n\r\n3.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents\r\nof high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds\r\nat the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson\r\ncategory higher than the winds near the surface.\r\n\r\n4.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at\r\nany one location.  Only a small deviation of the track\r\nto the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and\r\nGeorgia.  Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the\r\nhurricane-force winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in\r\nimpacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in\r\nnortheast Georgia and South Carolina.\r\n\r\n5.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In\r\naddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\r\nout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding\r\npotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in\r\nFlorida and Georgia.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 25.1N  77.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 26.4N  79.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 28.3N  80.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 30.2N  81.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 31.7N  80.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 32.5N  76.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 30.5N  75.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  76.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":35,"Date":"2016-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane just reached Matthew and measured 121\r\nkt at the 700-mb level and a minimum pressure of of 936 mb. Until\r\nthe plane finishes sampling the circulation, the initial intensity\r\nis kept at 120 kt.  There some indications that an outer eyewall is\r\ntrying to form, and perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur. If so, some\r\nweakening could occur, but there could also be fluctuations in\r\nintensity while the hurricane moves toward the east coast of Florida\r\nthat are not explicitly shown here. After 24 hours, the combination\r\nof land interaction and a significant increase in the shear should\r\ncause weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the\r\nSHIPS guidance during the next day or so, and it follows the trend\r\nof the consensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nSatellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is still moving\r\ntoward the northwest or 325 degrees at 11 kt. The steering flow has\r\nnot changed, and Matthew should continue to move around the western\r\nperiphery of the subtropical ridge located over the western Atlantic\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours. This portion of the NHC forecast is\r\nvery close to the multi-model consensus. After that time, the\r\nhurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies\r\nand should turn sharply eastward for a day or so. Then the steering\r\npattern is forecast to change again, and the track forecast becomes\r\nhighly uncertain. Both the GFS and the ECMWF turn a much weaker\r\nMatthew southward and southwestward. The NHC forecast follows the\r\nsouthwestward trend, and is in the middle of these two global\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas\r\ntoday, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida\r\ntonight.\r\n\r\n2.  Evacuations are not just a coastal event.  Strong winds will\r\noccur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile\r\nhomes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.\r\n\r\n3.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents\r\nof high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds\r\nat the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson\r\ncategory higher than the winds near the surface.\r\n\r\n4.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel\r\nto a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through\r\nSouth Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at\r\nany one location.  Only a small deviation of the track\r\nto the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major\r\nhurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and\r\nGeorgia.  Modest deviations to the right could keep much of the\r\nhurricane-force winds offshore.  Similarly large variations in\r\nimpacts are possible in the hurricane watch and warning areas in\r\nnortheast Georgia and South Carolina.\r\n\r\n5.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.  In\r\naddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend\r\nout only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding\r\npotential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in\r\nFlorida and Georgia.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 26.2N  78.6W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 27.6N  79.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 29.6N  81.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 31.2N  81.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 32.1N  80.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 31.5N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 29.0N  76.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 27.5N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":36,"Date":"2016-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite appearance of Matthew has improved during the past\r\nseveral hours, with an eye embedded within a more circular central\r\ndense overcast and an increase in the outer banding.  Reports from\r\na NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and coastal radar data show the\r\npresence of centric eyewalls with diameters of about 8 and 60 n mi\r\nrespectively.  The NOAA aircraft earlier reported a minimum pressure\r\nof 937 mb, and an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter just reported\r\nestimated surface winds of 109 kt from the SFMR and a pressure of\r\n939 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is 115 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 325/11 kt. For the next 24-48 hours, Matthew\r\nshould move around the western end of the subtropical ridge, with\r\nthe motion gradually turning northward and then northeastward.\r\nDuring this time, the center of the guidance envelope and the\r\nvarious consensus models have shifted a little to the east. However,\r\nthe ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET continue to suggest the possibility of the\r\nhurricane making landfall in Florida and then moving near the coasts\r\nof Georgia and South Carolina.  This part of the forecast is nudged\r\na little to the east and lies between the model consensus and the\r\nprevious forecast. After 48 hours, a mid- to upper-level ridge is\r\nforecast to build north and west of Matthew, and the track guidance\r\nforecasts a southeasterly to southerly motion in response. While\r\nthere is still a large spread, the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are in\r\nbetter agreement that Matthew should move south between the ridge\r\nand Hurricane Nicole to the east.  This part of the forecast follows\r\nthis guidance and lies between the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nDuring the next 12-24 hours, Matthew will likely weaken a little as\r\nit undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle.  After that time, it is\r\nexpected to encounter strong southwesterly vertical shear, and later\r\nin the forecast period dry air is likely to entrain into the\r\ncyclone.  This combination should cause steady weakening, and\r\nMatthew is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by 72 hours.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the northwestern Bahamas\r\ntoday, and along extensive portions of the east coast of Florida\r\ntonight.\r\n\r\n2.  Evacuations are not just a coastal event.  Strong winds will\r\noccur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile\r\nhomes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.\r\n\r\n3.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents\r\nof high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds\r\nat the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson\r\ncategory higher than the winds near the surface.\r\n\r\n4.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to\r\na coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South\r\nCarolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one\r\nlocation.  Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the\r\nNHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore\r\nwithin the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia.  Modest\r\ndeviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds\r\noffshore.  Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the\r\nhurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South\r\nCarolina.\r\n\r\n5.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 27.1N  79.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 28.5N  80.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 30.3N  80.8W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 31.8N  80.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 32.6N  78.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 31.5N  75.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 29.0N  75.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 27.0N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":37,"Date":"2016-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite appearance of Matthew has become rather disheveled\r\nlooking in infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory.\r\nLand-based Doppler radar data indicate that Matthew has been going\r\nthrough an eyewall replacement cycle for the past 12 hours or so,\r\nbut the inner eyewall has yet to dissipate within the 35-40 nmi wide\r\nouter eyewall. Both Doppler velocity data and recon SFMR surface\r\nwinds and flight-level winds indicate that hurricane-force winds are\r\nand have been occuring within the outer eyewall just 5-10 nmi east\r\nof the Florida coastline. Although the central pressure has\r\nremained steady between 938-940 mb, the intensity has been lowered\r\nto 105 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and several\r\npatches of Doppler velocities of 120-122 kt between 5000-7500 feet.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 330/12 kt. For the next 48 hours,\r\nMatthew is expected to move northward and then northeastward around\r\nthe western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. After that\r\ntime, a weakening Matthew is expected to turn slowly southeastward\r\nand then southward as the cyclone gets cut off from the influence of\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies and becomes embedded within the\r\naforementioned large-scale high pressure ridge. The latest model\r\nguidance has shifted to the left of the previous forecast track\r\nafter 36 hours, and the official forecast has been nudged in that\r\ndirection, but remains well to the right of the model consensus and\r\nclose to the GFS-ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nMatthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12\r\nhours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement\r\ncycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is\r\nexpected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical\r\nshear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry\r\nmid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new\r\nintensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nSpecial thanks to the Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunters\r\nfor their tireless efforts in having already completed more than 90\r\ncenter or eye fixes.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm\r\nsurge, extreme winds, and heavy rains along extensive portions of\r\nthe east-central and northeast coast of Florida today.\r\n\r\n2.  Evacuations are not just a coastal event.  Strong winds will\r\noccur well inland from the coast, and residents of mobile\r\nhomes under evacuation orders are urged to heed those orders.\r\n\r\n3.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and residents\r\nof high-rise buildings are at particular risk of strong winds. Winds\r\nat the top of a 30-story building will average one Saffir-Simpson\r\ncategory higher than the winds near the surface.\r\n\r\n4.  When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to\r\na coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South\r\nCarolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one\r\nlocation.  Only a small deviation of the track to the left of the\r\nNHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore\r\nwithin the hurricane warning area in Florida and Georgia.  Modest\r\ndeviations to the right could keep much of the hurricane-force winds\r\noffshore.  Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the\r\nhurricane watch and warning areas in northeast Georgia and South\r\nCarolina.\r\n\r\n5.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 28.2N  80.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 29.6N  80.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 31.5N  80.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 32.6N  79.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 33.1N  77.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 31.5N  74.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 29.0N  75.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 27.0N  76.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":38,"Date":"2016-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation has degraded during the past several\r\nhours, and the eye is not very distinct. However, the SFMR and\r\nflight-level wind data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane\r\nindicate that the initial intensity is still 105 kt.\r\n\r\nMatthew is expected to change little in intensity during the next 6\r\nto 12 hours, but it should begin to weaken at a faster pace in\r\n24 hours while the shear increases, and by the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, Matthew is expected to become a tropical depression.\r\n\r\nFixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving\r\ntoward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 10 kt. Matthew is\r\nreaching the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and\r\nencounter the mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern should\r\nsteer the hurricane northward and then northeastward during the\r\nnext 36 hours. After that time, the flow pattern is forecast\r\nto change again and a weakening Matthew should then turn southward\r\nand southwestward. The NHC forecast is a little bit to the\r\nnorth from the previous one during the first 24 to 36 hour period\r\nfollowing the multi-model consensus. After 72 hours, models\r\ncontinue to vary the flow pattern and the confidence in the track\r\nforecast is low.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  We have been very fortunate that Matthew's category 3 winds have\r\nremained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far,\r\nbut this should not be a reason to let down our guard.  Only a\r\nsmall deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these\r\nwinds onshore.  The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains\r\nhurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the\r\ncoast of northeastern Florida and Georgia today.\r\n\r\n2.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants\r\nof high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular\r\nrisk of strong winds. Winds at the top of a 30-story building will\r\naverage one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the\r\nsurface.\r\n\r\n3.  The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains\r\noffshore.  These include the danger of life-threatening inundation\r\nfrom storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from\r\nFlorida to North Carolina.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 29.4N  80.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 30.8N  80.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 32.5N  79.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 33.5N  78.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 33.5N  76.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 32.0N  74.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 28.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 27.0N  76.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":39,"Date":"2016-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nData from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and satellite intensity\r\nestimates indicate that Matthew has weakened a little bit and the\r\nmaximum winds are 95 kt.  The hurricane is heading toward an area of\r\nincreasing shear, and this should result in gradual weakening.  The\r\nshear is forecast to continue during the next 5 days, so additional\r\nweakening is anticipated and Matthew is expected to be a tropical\r\ndepression by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nMatthew has begun to move northward at about 10 kt. In about 12\r\nhours, the hurricane will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies, and\r\nthis flow pattern should induce a northeastward and then eastward\r\nmotion during the next 2 days. During that time the core of the\r\nhurricane is expected to hug the coast from Georgia through\r\nsoutheastern North Carolina.  The confidence in this portion of the\r\ntrack forecast is high.  After that time, the steering flow becomes\r\nvery complex, and both the GFS and ECMWF models turn the cyclone\r\nsouthward and southwestward embedded within the flow on the west\r\nside of a mid-level trough. The NHC track follows these two models,\r\nbut the confidence is portion of the forecast is low.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  We have been very fortunate that Matthew's strongest winds have\r\nremained a short distance offshore of the Florida Coast thus far,\r\nbut this should not be a reason to let down our guard.  Only a\r\nsmall deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring these\r\nwinds onshore.  The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains\r\nhurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the\r\ncoast of northeastern Florida and Georgia through tonight.\r\n\r\n2.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants\r\nof high-rise buildings in the Jacksonville area are at particular\r\nrisk of strong winds.  Winds at the top of a 30-story building will\r\naverage one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the\r\nsurface.\r\n\r\n3.  The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains\r\noffshore.  These include the danger of life-threatening inundation\r\nfrom storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from\r\nFlorida to North Carolina.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 30.2N  80.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 31.7N  80.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 33.0N  79.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 33.8N  76.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 33.5N  75.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 30.0N  74.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 27.0N  76.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 26.0N  77.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":40,"Date":"2016-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nCoastal Doppler radar data this evening indicate that Matthew is\r\ngradually becoming less organized.  The eyewall has broken open\r\nwith the remaining deep convection in a band just north of the\r\ncenter, and there is now little precipitation in the southeastern\r\nquadrant.  A combination of radar winds and earlier aircraft data\r\nsuggests that the intensity has decreased slightly since the last\r\nadvisory, so the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 010/10 kt.  During the next 36 hours,\r\nMatthew should turn more northeastward as it moves along the\r\nsouthern edge of a mid-latitude trough.  The forecast track, which\r\nlies in the center of the track guidance envelope, has the center\r\nmoving near the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during the next\r\n12-18 hours, then near the North Carolina coast from 18-36 hours.\r\nWhile this occurs, the cyclone is forecast to encounter strong\r\nvertical wind shear and to entrain dry air associated with an\r\napproaching frontal system.  This should result in a steady\r\nweakening, and Matthew is now forecast to weaken to a tropical storm\r\nby 36 hours in agreement with the SHIPS model. It is possible that\r\nMatthew could merge with the frontal system at about 36 hours,\r\nalthough none of the available guidance currently forecasts the\r\nsystem to become an extratropical low.\r\n\r\nThe track and intensity forecasts become very low confidence after\r\n36 hours due to a large diversity of model solutions.  The GFDL and\r\nHWRF forecast Matthew to turn northeastward and become an\r\nextratropical low near the Canadian Atlantic provinces.  The UKMET\r\nmoves Matthew eastward and eventually has it absorbed by Tropical\r\nStorm Nicole.  The ECMWF, NAVGEM, and Canadian models show a\r\nsouthwestward turn, with the cyclone or it remnants near the Bahamas\r\nby 120 hours.  The GFS is between the UKMET and ECMWF, showing\r\nMatthew moving far enough to the east to interact with Nicole, then\r\nturning southward.  The new track forecast follows the previous\r\nadvisory in showing a southward/southwestward turn similar to the\r\nECMWF, but is east of the previous track due to an overall eastward\r\ntrend in the guidance.  Regarding the intensity, the GFS suggests\r\nthat Matthew could decay to a remnant low by 120 hours, while the\r\nECMWF suggests the system could still be a tropical cyclone.  Either\r\nway, continued weakening is likely due to shear and dry air\r\nentrainment, and the official forecast calls for Matthew to weaken\r\nto a depression by 96 hours.\r\n\r\nDue to the degradation of the radar signature of Matthew, the\r\nhourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will no longer be issued.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  We have been very fortunate that Matthew's strongest winds have\r\nremained a short distance offshore of the Florida and Georgia coasts\r\nthus far, but this should not be a reason to let down our guard.\r\nOnly a small deviation to the left of the forecast track could bring\r\nthese winds onshore.  The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains\r\nhurricane-force winds, is expected to move over or very near the\r\ncoasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight and Friday.\r\n\r\n2.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants\r\nof high-rise buildings along the coast are at particular risk of\r\nstrong winds.  Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average\r\none Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.\r\n\r\n3.  The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains\r\noffshore.  These include the danger of life-threatening inundation\r\nfrom storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from\r\nFlorida to North Carolina.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 31.2N  80.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 32.5N  79.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 33.6N  77.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 33.9N  75.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 33.0N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 30.0N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 27.5N  74.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 26.0N  75.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":41,"Date":"2016-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nCoastal Doppler weather radars this morning continue to depict a\r\n40-nmi wide eye with a band of intense convection located in the\r\nnorthwestern quadrant along the coasts of extreme eastern Georgia\r\nand South Carolina from Tybee Island northeast to near the entrance\r\nof Charleston Harbor. Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance wind\r\ndata, along with Doppler radar velocity data and surface\r\nobservations, indicate that hurricane-force wind gusts in excess of\r\n80 kt are occuring along the aforementioned coastal areas. Based on\r\n700-mb maximum flight-level winds of 108 kt, peak SFMR surface winds\r\nof 83 kt, and Doppler velocities of 100-102 kt between 8000-11000\r\nft, the initial intensity will remain at 90 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 015/10 kt. Matthew made a northward\r\njog since the previous advisory, but now appears to moving\r\nnorth-northeastward based on the latest radar and recon fixes.\r\nHowever, the more northward motion earlier has increased the\r\npossibility that the center of Matthew's eye will move onshore the\r\ncoast of South Carolina later this morning or early afternoon as the\r\ncyclone turns northeastward ahead of a strong shortwave trough.\r\nRegardless of whether or not the center makes landfall,\r\nhurricane-force winds in the northern eyewall will lash much of the\r\ncoast of South Carolina today as the center moves to a position just\r\neast of Charleston Harbor in about 12 hours. After that, the models\r\nare in fair agreement on Matthew turning eastward through 36 hours\r\nas the cyclone briefly gets captured by the aforementioned shortwave\r\ntrough. However, by 48 hours and beyond, Matthew is expected to\r\nturn southeastward and southward as the cyclone moves around the\r\neastern periphery of an amplifying ridge located east of Florida.\r\nIn the 48-72 hours time period, some erratic motion could occur as\r\nMatthew and Tropical Storm Nicole briefly undergo some binary\r\ninteraction before separating by 96 hours. The official forecast\r\ntrack closely follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt\r\nby 12 hours, which should induce steady weakening. At 48 hours and\r\nbeyond, the SHIPS model is forecasting the shear to increase to\r\nmore than 40 kt, resulting in rapid weakening to remnant low status\r\nby 120 hours. However, the shear forecast appears to be overdone\r\nsince both the GFS and ECMWF models indicate that Matthew and Nicole\r\nwill both be moving underneath a narrow 200 mb ridge axis, which\r\nshould act to reduce the shear across the two cyclones in the 48-96\r\nhour period. The official intensity forecast closely follows the\r\nconsensus model IVCN, and maintains Matthew as a tropical cyclone\r\nthroughout the forecast period.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  The western eyewall of Matthew, which contains hurricane-force\r\nwinds, is now moving over the northern coast of Georgia and\r\nthe southern coast of South Carolina and should spread up the coast\r\nduring the day.\r\n\r\n2.  Hurricane winds increase very rapidly with height, and occupants\r\nof high-rise buildings along the coast are at particular risk of\r\nstrong winds.  Winds at the top of a 30-story building will average\r\none Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface.\r\n\r\n3.  The water hazards remain, even if the core of Matthew remains\r\noffshore.  These include the danger of life-threatening inundation\r\nfrom storm surge, as well as inland flooding from heavy rains from\r\nFlorida to North Carolina.\r\n\r\n4.  The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for\r\nMatthew.  It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge\r\nFlooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation,\r\nbut rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -- the amount of\r\ninundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 32.0N  80.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 32.9N  79.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 33.7N  77.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 33.4N  75.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 32.6N  73.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 29.0N  73.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 26.0N  75.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 25.0N  76.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":42,"Date":"2016-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nAircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the\r\ncenter of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near\r\nthe Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge.\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Matthew is beginning to acquire\r\nsome extratropical characteristics. The wind field is expanding, and\r\nthe area of heavy rains is now northwest of the center.  Data from\r\nNOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft around 1200 UTC indicated\r\nthat the surface winds have decreased to around 65 kt. (Very recent\r\nSFMR winds of 78 kt were taken over shallow water where the\r\ninstrument is affected by shoaling and provides unreliable output).\r\nMost of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast\r\nthat Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new\r\nNHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this\r\nfrontal system within the next couple of days.  During the next 12\r\nto 24 hours, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on\r\na more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are\r\nexpected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and\r\ncontinue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area.\r\n\r\nMatthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and is\r\nmoving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 10 kt. The steering\r\npattern is forecast to persist for the next day or two, and on this\r\nbasis the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward until it becomes\r\nabsorbed.  Previous NHC official forecasts followed the EMCWF in\r\nkeeping the cyclone a distinct entity longer and looping it\r\nsouthward, but even if this the case the system will likely be only\r\na broad area of low pressure.\r\n\r\nDue to the degradation of Matthew's radar signature, the hourly\r\nTropical Cyclone Updates will not longer be issued.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds\r\nwill shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will\r\npersist over land even after the center begins to move away from the\r\ncoastline, and has also increased the threat of storm surge in\r\nportions of the North Carolina Outer Banks.  Please see the\r\nPrototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the\r\nareas at risk.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 33.0N  79.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 33.6N  78.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 34.0N  75.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 34.0N  73.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 33.0N  72.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":43,"Date":"2016-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with\r\nHurricane Matthew is gradually losing tropical characteristics\r\nwhile it becomes embedded within a mid-latitude trough. The\r\nhurricane is accompanied by a very extensive area of intense\r\nrains mostly located north of the center. Recent data from an Air\r\nForce reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the winds are still 65\r\nkt, and these winds are limited to a small area over water east of\r\nthe center. The low-level circulation is becoming separated from the\r\nmid-level circulation due to strong shear. Most of the global\r\nmodels, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will\r\nbecome entangled with a cold front, and the NHC forecast calls for\r\nMatthew to weaken and become absorbed within this frontal system\r\nwithin the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving\r\ntoward the east-northeast or 060 degrees at 10 kt while hugging the\r\ncoast of South Carolina.  During the next 12 hours or so, while the\r\nMatthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical\r\nstructure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and\r\nstrengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions\r\nof the coast within the warning area.\r\n\r\nSince Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow\r\nand the steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or\r\ntwo, the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward or east-\r\nsoutheastward until it becomes absorbed.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds\r\nwill shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will\r\npersist over land even after the center begins to move away from the\r\ncoastline, and have also increased the threat of storm surge in\r\nportions of the North Carolina Outer Banks.  Please see the\r\nPrototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the\r\nareas at risk.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 33.8N  78.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 34.5N  76.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 34.5N  74.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 34.0N  71.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 33.0N  70.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  11/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Matthew","Adv":44,"Date":"2016-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nA combination of satellite imagery, aircraft data, and coastal\r\nsurface and radar observations indicate that Matthew is undergoing\r\nextratropical transition, and there is barely enough convection\r\nnear the center to keep the system classified as a hurricane.\r\nHowever, SFMR data from an Air Force show hurricane-force winds to\r\nthe southwest of the center, and based on this and the marginal\r\nconvection Matthew remains a hurricane for this advisory.  The\r\ncyclone is likely to become post-tropical in 12 hours or less and\r\nbecome an extratropical frontal low by 24 hours. As this happens\r\nthough, a band of strong winds forming in the western semicircle\r\nnear eastern North Carolina and the adjacent waters should keep the\r\nintensity near 65 kt for the next 12 hours or so.  After that,\r\nMatthew should weaken and become absorbed within the frontal system\r\nbetween 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update\r\nof the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 070/12.  Matthew is embedded in the\r\nmid-latitude westerly flow and this steering pattern is forecast to\r\nmove the system east-northeastward and then eastward until\r\ndissipation.  The new forecast track is a little south of the\r\nprevious track for the first 12 hours and a little north of it\r\nafter that time.\r\n\r\nThe forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North\r\nCarolina coastal area requires a northward extension of the\r\nhurricane watch.  Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia\r\nare being handled by non-tropical wind warnings.\r\n\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds\r\nare shifting to the west side of the circulation.  The winds are\r\nexpected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of\r\neastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during\r\nthe next 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force\r\nwinds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico\r\nand Albemarle Sounds.  There is also an increased threat of storm\r\nsurge in these areas.  Please see the Prototype Storm Surge\r\nWatch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 34.1N  76.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 34.6N  74.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 34.4N  72.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 33.8N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 33.0N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Matthew","Adv":45,"Date":"2016-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite and radar imagery indicate that Matthew has become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone, with the closest deep convection now located\r\nmore than 150 nmi north and northeast of the exposed low-level\r\ncenter. Despite this change in structure, surface observations\r\nacross eastern North Carolina and an earlier ASCAT pass indicate\r\nthat strong winds persist northwest through southwest of the\r\ncenter. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission completed\r\nearlier this morning also indicated that hurricane-force winds\r\nwere occuring southwest of the center, so the initial intensity\r\nis being maintained at 65 kt for this advisory. Surface\r\nobservations indicate that a cold front should overtake Matthew's\r\ncenter shortly, resulting in extratropical transition. The global\r\nand regional models forecast Matthew to slowly weaken over the next\r\n48 hours, and that trend has been followed in the official\r\nintensity forecast. In the 48-72 hour time period, Matthew's\r\ncirculation is expected to dissipate within the frontal system.\r\n\r\nA combination of satellite and radar imagery, aircraft data, and\r\ncoastal surface observations indicate that Matthew is moving 065/12\r\nkt.  Matthew is now fully embedded within the mid-latitude westerly\r\nflow, and this deep-layer steering pattern is expected to move the\r\ncyclone east-northeastward and away from the coast of North\r\nCarolina today. An eastward motion is expected by tonight and\r\nshould continue until Matthew dissipates in 48 hours or so.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is a little north of the previous track and lies\r\nclose to a blend of the ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nRecent observations and the forecast strength of the band of winds\r\nover the eastern North Carolina coastal area requires maintaining\r\nthe Hurricane Watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of\r\nVirginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds\r\ncontinue to shift to the west side of the circulation.  The winds\r\nare expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of\r\neastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during\r\nthe next 6 to 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane\r\nforce winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the\r\nPamlico and Albemarle Sounds.  There is also an increased threat of\r\nstorm surge in these areas.  Please see the Prototype Storm Surge\r\nWatch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk.\r\n\r\n2.  Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products\r\nas long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 34.9N  75.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 35.2N  73.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 35.4N  70.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 35.9N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 36.5N  62.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Matthew","Adv":46,"Date":"2016-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite data and surface observations indicate that a cold\r\nfront has wrapped around the southwestern portion of Matthew's\r\ncirculation and the post-tropical cyclone is now analyzed as an\r\nextratropical low.  Despite the change in the cyclone's structure\r\nover the past 24 hours, Matthew continues to produce an area of very\r\nstrong winds to the southwest and west of the center. Sustained\r\nwinds of 55 to 60 kt with gusts above hurricane force were reported\r\nat several coastal marine observing stations near the Outer Banks of\r\nNorth Carolina this morning, and a recent dropsonde from the Global\r\nHawk unmanned aircraft reported surface winds of 58 kt.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial intensity remains 65 kt.  The global models\r\nindicate that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually weaken during\r\nthe next 24 to 36 hours, and be absorbed by a frontal boundary in\r\nabout 48 hours.\r\n\r\nMatthew is moving eastward at about 13 kt.  The low should continue\r\nmoving eastward within the mid-latitude westerly flow during the\r\nnext day or so.  The NHC forecast track is close to a blend of the\r\nECMWF, GFS, and UKMET models, and is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nStrong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled\r\nby non-tropical wind warnings.\r\n\r\nKEY MESSAGES:\r\n\r\n1.  Tropical-storm-force winds will continue over the North Carolina\r\nOuter Banks this afternoon, with gusts to near hurricane force\r\npossible during the next hour or two.  Storm surge flooding\r\ncontinues over portions of the Outer Banks.  Please see the\r\nPrototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the\r\nareas at risk.\r\n\r\n2.  Although Matthew has become a post-tropical cyclone, NHC will\r\ncontinue to issue its full suite of advisory and warning products\r\nas long as the system remains a significant threat to land areas.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 35.2N  73.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 35.3N  71.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 35.7N  68.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 37.0N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  11/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Matthew","Adv":47,"Date":"2016-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142016\r\n500 PM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016\r\n\r\nDropsonde data from a NASA Global Hawk mission into Matthew today\r\nindicate that the post-tropical cyclone has not weakened.  The\r\nobservations continue to show a band of 60-65 kt winds to the\r\nsouthwest and west of the center.  Matthew is moving east-\r\nnortheastward at about 13 kt, and an east-northeastward motion\r\nwithin the mid-latitude westerlies should continue through\r\ntonight.  Matthew is forecast by the global models to weaken and be\r\nabsorbed within a frontal boundary on Monday, and the NHC forecast\r\nfollows suit.  It should be noted that a strong baroclinic low is\r\nexpected to develop along the same frontal boundary near Nova\r\nScotia on Monday.\r\n\r\nWinds over the Outer Banks of North Carolina have gradually\r\ndiminished this afternoon, and the tropical storm warning has been\r\ndiscontinued. Dangerously high water levels over portions of the\r\nOuter Banks will gradually subside overnight and early Monday.\r\nBased on these trends, this will be the last NHC advisory on\r\nMatthew.  For additional information on the elevated water levels in\r\nthe Outer Banks and the ongoing freshwater flooding in eastern North\r\nCarolina, see products and warnings issued by your local National\r\nWeather Service forecast office.  Additional information on Matthew\r\ncan also be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National\r\nWeather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01\r\nKWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 35.4N  72.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 36.4N  69.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  10/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-10-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system to the\r\nnortheast of Puerto Rico has become better organized, with some\r\nbanding features having developed over the eastern portion of the\r\ncirculation, and ASCAT data indicates that the circulation is now\r\nwell-defined.  Therefore advisories are being initiated on this\r\nsystem.  Visible satellite images show that the low-level center is\r\nnear the western edge of the deep convection.  The scatterometer\r\ndata indicate that the maximum winds are near 45 kt.  Even stronger\r\nshear lies ahead for Nicole, and a weakening trend is likely to\r\ncommence by late tomorrow.  The official forecast is close to the\r\nLGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt.  Over the next few days,\r\nthe forward motion of Nicole is likely to become blocked by a\r\nmid-level high to the northwest.  Therefore the cyclone is likely\r\nto begin meandering later in the forecast period.  The official\r\nforecast track lies close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 23.8N  60.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 24.5N  61.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 25.5N  62.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 26.8N  63.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 28.2N  64.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 28.9N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 27.8N  64.2W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 27.5N  65.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-10-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since earlier today.\r\nAll of the deep convection is occurring over the eastern semicircle\r\nof the circulation as the storm continues to experience fairly\r\nstrong northwesterly shear.  The advisory intensity is held at 45\r\nkt based on continuity from the earlier scatterometer data.  Nicole\r\nis likely to continue to experience strong shear over the next\r\nseveral days, which should eventually result in weakening.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is close to the latest LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone continues moving northwestward, or 305/8 kt.\r\nNicole should continue moving northwestward for the next couple of\r\ndays, to the southwest of a mid-level high.  Later in the forecast\r\nperiod, another high builds to the northwest of the cyclone and\r\nthis would block the forward progress of Nicole in 4-5 days.  The\r\nofficial track forecast leans toward the latest ECMWF prediction.\r\nThis is a little faster than the previous forecast for the next few\r\ndays, and a little east of it in the latter part of the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 24.1N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 25.0N  62.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 26.5N  63.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 27.8N  65.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 29.0N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 29.0N  64.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 29.0N  64.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 30.0N  63.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-10-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 04 2016\r\n\r\nNicole has developed a comma-shaped cloud pattern this evening, with\r\nthe low-level center estimated to be about midway between the end of\r\na long curved band and the end of an associated dry slot.  Dvorak\r\nclassifications are T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and thus the\r\ninitial intensity is held at 45 kt.\r\n\r\nAlthough over waters around 29 deg C during the next few days,\r\nNicole is forecast to be affected by strong northwesterly to\r\nnortherly shear associated with the outflow of Hurricane Matthew to\r\nits east. While the shear may not be strong enough to induce much\r\nweakening, it very likely would prevent Nicole from intensifying.\r\nBy about 72 hours, the northerly shear should further increase, and\r\nit is possible that Nicole would degenerate into a remnant low by\r\nthat time or shortly thereafter.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nidentical to the previous one, and is close to the statistical\r\nmodel output that shows no change in strength through 36 hours and\r\nthen weakening. Nicole is shown to maintain tropical cyclone status\r\nthroughout the forecast period out of respect for the ECMWF\r\nsolution, which shows this possibility.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 300/05.  Nicole is expected to move\r\nwest-northwestward and then northward around a mid-level high\r\nlocated east of Bermuda for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, a\r\nmid-tropospheric cyclone near the northeastern United States coast\r\nis forecast to dive southeastward toward Nicole, which should cause\r\nthe cyclone to turn eastward or even southeastward from 72-96\r\nhours.  Should the cyclone survive, a turn toward the north is\r\nlikely by 120 hours ahead of another shortwave trough moving of the\r\nUnited States east coast.  The new track forecast is shifted to\r\nthe east after 36 hours in response to the track guidance, which has\r\nmoved in that direction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 24.2N  61.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 25.1N  62.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 26.5N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 27.7N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 28.5N  64.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 28.3N  63.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 28.3N  62.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 30.0N  62.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-10-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nNicole continues to hold its strength despite strong wind shear.\r\nSatellite images show a rather robust circulation, with a small area\r\nof deep convection near the center and a larger band to the east of\r\nthe center. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, based on Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB.  Nicole is expected to remain in\r\nstrong wind shear conditions caused by the outflow of Hurricane\r\nMatthew during the next few days, which should prevent the\r\nstorm from strengthening.  Beyond that time, Nicole is expected to\r\ninteract with a mid- to upper-level low and could acquire some\r\nsubtropical cyclone characteristics this weekend.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is higher than the previous one beyond 36 hours to come\r\ninto better agreement with the latest guidance, which generally\r\nshows Nicole staying relatively steady state through the period.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt on the\r\nsouthwest side of a subtropical ridge.  A turn to the northwest is\r\nlikely later today followed by a northward motion in 36 to 48 hours\r\nas the cyclone moves toward a weakness in the ridge. After that\r\ntime, a slow and erratic motion is expected as Nicole interacts with\r\nthe cut off upper-level low.  The NHC track forecast closely follows\r\na consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models, and is fairly similar to\r\nthe previous prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 24.3N  61.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 25.5N  63.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 26.8N  64.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 27.7N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 28.4N  64.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 28.0N  62.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 28.3N  62.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 30.0N  63.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-10-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nThunderstorm activity has been bursting since the overnight hours\r\nnear Nicole's center, which is located near the northwestern edge\r\nof the deep convection.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB\r\nand SAB remain 3.0, so Nicole's intensity is held at 45 kt.\r\nNicole's small circulation has found itself beneath an upper-level\r\nlow and shear axis, so the vertical shear affecting the system does\r\nnot seem as strong as various large-scale calculations of 25-30 kt\r\nfrom the north would suggest.  Nicole could continue to be situated\r\nunder the shear axis for another 24 hours or so.  But after that\r\ntime, the shear axis is forecast to dissipate, and the large-scale\r\nshear numbers indicated in the SHIPS diagnostics should be more\r\nrepresentative.  The intensity models show very little change in\r\nintensity during the next couple of days, and the NHC forecast\r\nholds Nicole's strength through day 3.  The models then show a\r\ngeneral weakening trend on days 4 and 5, and that's what is\r\nindicated in the advisory.\r\n\r\nNicole has picked up a little speed with an initial motion of 300/7\r\nkt.  The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward soon and\r\nmaintain its speed for the next 24 hours while it moves around a\r\nmid-level high.  After that time, a mid-latitude shortwave trough\r\ndrops southward from New England, causing Nicole to put on the\r\nbrakes.  While the UKMET and GFDL models show the trough pushing\r\nNicole southwestward, the remainder of the models induce a motion\r\nwith an eastward component.  The NHC forecast continues to favor the\r\neastern models, and the spread among the guidance suggests that\r\nNicole will meander during the day 2-5 time range.  Except for a\r\nslight westward shift in the track on days 3-5, the NHC track is\r\nfairly similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 25.0N  62.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 26.0N  63.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 27.3N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 28.1N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 28.3N  64.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 27.3N  63.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 27.5N  63.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 29.5N  64.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-10-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nA 1846 UTC SSMI microwave pass showed that Nicole has a\r\nwell-defined mid-level eye with the deepest convection to the\r\nsoutheast of the center.  Nicole's visible satellite presentation\r\nhas also improved, and there has been a recent burst of convection\r\nright over the center.  Dvorak intensity estimates are now T3.0\r\nfrom SAB and T3.5 from TAFB, so the initial intensity is raised to\r\n50 kt.  It's often difficult to estimate the strength of small\r\ncyclones like Nicole based on satellite alone, and it's possible\r\nthat the intensity could be higher.\r\n\r\nAs discussed this morning, Nicole is located beneath an upper-level\r\nshear axis, so the vertical shear directly over the cyclone is\r\nactually not that high.  Since Nicole could stay in this type of\r\nenvironment for another 12-24 hours, and due to the cyclone's small\r\nsize, the maximum winds could increase in the short term.  The new\r\nNHC intensity forecast is higher than the previous forecast during\r\nthe first 24 hours, and it is above all of the guidance during that\r\nperiod.  In fact, it would not be surprising if Nicole was to\r\nbecome a hurricane some time soon, especially since it already has a\r\neye in microwave imagery.  After 24 hours, a larger area of strong\r\nupper-level winds should overspread Nicole, and the maximum winds\r\nshould therefore decrease through the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 300/7 kt.  Nicole's forward motion is\r\nexpected to slow down to a crawl by 36 hours, and after that\r\ntime, there is considerable spread in the guidance.  For example,\r\nby day 5, the ECMWF pulls Nicole well northward, absorbed by\r\nMatthew and a nearby frontal zone, while the UKMET, HWRF, and GFDN\r\nmodels push Nicole southward or southwestward.  Given this\r\nuncertainty, the NHC track forecast continues to show a slow\r\nmeandering motion on days 2-5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 25.3N  63.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 26.3N  64.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 27.4N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 27.9N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 27.7N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 27.0N  64.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 27.5N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 29.5N  65.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-10-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 05 2016\r\n\r\nNicole has continued to become better organized during the past\r\nseveral hours with a warm spot appearing on the night visible\r\nimages.  The latest microwave data also show that the storm has\r\nmaintained a mid-level eye, although the eye still isn't very well-\r\ndefined in the low-level channels.  Subjective Dvorak estimates\r\nrange from 55 to 65 kt, so the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe storm is starting to take on a more asymetric appearance, a sign\r\nthat the long-awaited shear might finally be starting to impact the\r\ncyclone. Still, the shear is not forecast to increase much over the\r\nnext day or so, and Nicole has the opportunity to strengthen into a\r\nhurricane during that time, although not explicitly forecast below.\r\nVertical wind shear should become rather strong by the end of the\r\nforecast period, and Nicole's winds should gradually decrease by\r\nearly next week.  It is a little puzzling that, with such strong\r\nshear in all of the global models, a lot of guidance don't show much\r\nweakening. Given the likelihood of such an unfavorable environment,\r\nthe latest official forecast is very similar to the previous one, on\r\nthe low side of the guidance closest to the LGEM model.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has turned to the right, now 320/8.  Most of the\r\nguidance move the system to the north-northwest or north at a\r\ndecreasing forward speed over the next 36 hours as a ridge collapses\r\nto the north of Nicole.  After that time, northerly flow related to\r\na trough over the central Atlantic is forecast to steer Nicole\r\nslowly southward for a couple of days.  Up to about 72 hours, the\r\nmodel guidance is in reasonable agreement on this solution.\r\nThereafter, the model spread becomes increasingly large very\r\nquickly, with a massive 1000 mile spread between the HWRF and the\r\nECMWF models by day 5.  This appears to be related to Nicole's\r\npossible interaction with Matthew and/or the southern portion of the\r\ntrough, resulting in tracks primarily toward the southwest, west, or\r\nnortheast.  The latest long-range NHC forecast is very close to a\r\nblend of the GFS, UKMET and ECMWF ensemble means, with more weight\r\non the ECMWF solution.  This forecast shows a slow northward motion\r\nby the end of the period, ending up pretty close to the previous\r\nNHC prediction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 26.0N  64.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 26.9N  64.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 27.7N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 27.8N  65.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 27.5N  64.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 26.5N  64.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 27.5N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 29.0N  65.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-10-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nNicole is maintaining its intensity.  The cloud pattern has\r\ngenerally changed little since the previous advisory, and it\r\nconsists of a central dense overcast feature with some curved bands\r\nto the east of the center.  Earlier microwave data did show a\r\nmid-level eye, but this feature is not apparent in geostationary\r\nsatellite images.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB\r\nremain 4.0/65 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively, and therefore, the\r\ninitial wind speed is held at 60 kt.  Although not explicitly\r\nforecast, Nicole could reach hurricane strength today before it\r\nmoves into an area of stronger shear on Friday.  The expected\r\nincrease in shear and a drier air mass should lead to a slow\r\nweakening trend beginning in about 24 hours.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous one and is in line with the\r\nbulk of the guidance.\r\n\r\nNicole is still moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwest side\r\nof a mid-level ridge.  A trough currently off the coast of New\r\nEngland is expected to move southeastward and erode the ridge.\r\nThis pattern change will likely leave Nicole in weak steering\r\ncurrents beginning in about 24 hours.  As a result, the storm is\r\nexpected to move slowly and erratically throughout much of the\r\nforecast period.  The guidance is very divergent and shows solutions\r\nin nearly every direction.  The NHC official track forecast is\r\na little to the west of the previous one, trending toward the latest\r\nconsensus aids.  Given the large model spread, the NHC track\r\nforecast is of low confidence.\r\n\r\nThe 34- and 50-kt wind radii were modified based on an ASCAT pass\r\naround 0100 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 26.5N  64.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 27.3N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 27.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 27.8N  65.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 27.2N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 26.7N  65.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 27.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  11/0600Z 29.5N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-10-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since the last advisory,\r\nand consists of a ragged CDO with some banding features over the\r\nsoutheastern portion of the circulation.  Upper-level outflow is\r\nrestricted over the northern semicircle of the storm.  Dvorak\r\nclassifications are unchanged from SAB and TAFB, yielding intensity\r\nestimates of 55 kt and 65 kt, respectively, so the advisory\r\nintensity is held at 60 kt.  Although Nicole could reach hurricane\r\nstrength today, increasing north-northwesterly shear should lead to\r\na slow weakening trend, beginning tomorrow.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is a blend of the latest LGEM and SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe forward motion is slowing, and the motion is now estimated to\r\nbe about 325/5 kt.  A mid-level high pressure area to the northeast\r\nof Nicole should quickly collapse while a shortwave trough drops\r\nsouthward into the area.  This will leave the tropical cyclone in\r\nweak steering currents within the next day or so.  A high pressure\r\narea is forecast to build to the west and northwest of Nicole\r\nduring the next couple of days, and this should force some\r\nsouthward component of motion.  Overall, however, the official\r\nforecast, like the previous one, shows little overall motion\r\nthroughout the period.  This is in reasonable agreement with the\r\ndynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nSwells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting\r\nBermuda, and these conditions are likely to continue for the\r\nnext several days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 26.8N  64.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 27.5N  65.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 27.8N  65.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 27.3N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 26.9N  64.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 27.0N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-10-06 18:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n200 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nThis is a special advisory issued to upgrade Nicole to a hurricane.\r\nThe system's cloud pattern has become more symmetrical since this\r\nmorning, with an eye evident on visible satellite images.  The\r\nintensity is set to 70 kt, which is between the subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak intensity estimates.  Nicole has been able to\r\nstrengthen in an environment of shear on the order of 20 kt.  Since\r\nthe hurricane has been so resilient to the shear, some additional\r\nstrengthening seems likely.  By 48 hours, the shear is forecast to\r\nincrease to over 40 kt, so some weakening is forecast around that\r\ntime.  The official intensity forecast is above the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nguidance for the early part of the period, and a blend of those 2\r\nmodels thereafter.\r\n\r\nLittle or no change was made to the track forecast from the previous\r\nregular advisory, and the track forecast reasoning is unchanged.\r\nSteering currents are expected to become weak within the next 12 to\r\n24 hours, and Nicole should move slowly and erratically for the next\r\nseveral days.\r\n\r\nSwells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,\r\nand these conditions are likely to continue for the next several\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1800Z 27.3N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 27.7N  65.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 27.9N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 27.3N  64.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 26.9N  64.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 26.5N  65.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 27.0N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  11/1200Z 28.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-10-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern has continued to increase in organization\r\nthis afternoon.  A small central dense overcast has become even more\r\nsymmetric during the last few hours, with an eye intermittently\r\nvisible.  Dvorak classifications of T4.5 from TAFB and UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nvalues support increasing the intensity to 75 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole is being affected by northerly shear associated with outflow\r\nof Hurricane Matthew, but it is suspected that this shear is\r\nconfined to a narrow layer at upper levels since the cyclone has\r\nbeen unexpectedly strengthening.  Given the current trends,\r\nadditional intensification seems possible, at least during the short\r\nterm. However, a mid- to upper-level trough digging over the central\r\nAtlantic should cause the shear over Nicole to greatly increase in 1\r\nto 2 days and result in some weakening.  There could also be some\r\ninteraction of Nicole with a piece of the trough that breaks off in\r\n2 to 3 days, as shown in the global models, but it is unclear how\r\nthis could affect its intensity.  The large-scale environment\r\nis forecast to potentially become more conducive for re-\r\nintensification by days 4 or 5, and some restrengthening is shown\r\naround that time.  The new intensity forecast is above the\r\nmulti-model consensus and higher than the previous one at the end\r\nof the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 330/06.  Steering currents are likely\r\nto collapse very soon as Nicole finds itself in a col area, making\r\nan erratic northward motion likely for the next 12 hours or so.  A\r\nblocking ridge in the wake of the aforementioned trough should then\r\nimpart a slow southerly motion for a couple of days. By 72 hours, a\r\nturn back toward the northwest or north-northwest is forecast as a\r\nmid-level high builds to the east of Nicole.  Although there is\r\nconsiderable spread in the model guidance, this general scenario is\r\nshown except for the ECMWF, which is well to the right of the other\r\nmodel solutions through the next 3 days.  The new track forecast is\r\nof low confidence, is faster than the previous one, and is between\r\nthe previous forecast and an average of the ECMWF/GFS output.\r\n\r\nSwells associated with this slow-moving storm are affecting Bermuda,\r\nand these conditions are likely to continue for the next several\r\ndays.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 27.5N  65.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 27.9N  65.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 27.6N  65.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 27.0N  64.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 26.5N  64.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 26.4N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 27.4N  66.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 29.4N  67.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-10-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST THU OCT 06 2016\r\n\r\nNicole has rapidly intensified during the day, with a pinhole eye\r\napparent in satellite and microwave imagery.  Although the eye has\r\nrecently become obscured, Dvorak satellite estimates support an\r\ninitial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory.  All of the guidance\r\nsuggests that the shear near Nicole should increase during the next\r\ncouple of days since the tropical cyclone will be in an environment\r\nof increasingly strong upper-level northerly winds.  Thus Nicole\r\nis probably near its peak intensity, and slow weakening is forecast\r\nfrom Friday through the weekend.  The large-scale environment\r\ncould become more conducive for re-intensification by days 4 or 5,\r\nand some restrengthening is shown around that time.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is very close to the previous one, slightly above\r\nthe model consensus.\r\n\r\nNicole has moved very little during the past several hours.  The\r\nhurricane will likely begin to drift southward by tomorrow\r\nafternoon due to steering from the western side of a mid-level\r\ntrough.  Thereafter, Nicole could gradually turn toward the\r\nsouthwest, west, and northwest over the next few days around a\r\nridge over the western Atlantic Ocean.  There is better agreement in\r\nthe guidance than yesterday, although the ECMWF remains a bit of an\r\noutlier solution to the east.  Since a stronger system would likely\r\nrespond more to the deep-layer northerly flow, the new NHC track is\r\nshifted a bit to the south of the previous forecast in a couple of\r\ndays, but ends up close to the last NHC advisory by day 5.\r\n\r\nA climate note:  This is the first time since September 10, 1964\r\nthat two Category 2 (or stronger) hurricanes have occurred\r\nsimultaneously in the Atlantic basin west of 65W.  Interestingly,\r\nthose hurricanes in 1964, Dora and Ethel, were in similar positions\r\nas Matthew and Nicole are now.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 27.4N  65.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 27.3N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 26.8N  65.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 26.1N  64.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 25.5N  64.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 26.0N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 27.5N  67.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 29.0N  68.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-10-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nNicole no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery, and the\r\ncloud pattern suggests that 30 kt of northwesterly shear is\r\nbeginning to offset the deep convection to the southeast of the\r\ncenter.  Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased,\r\nso the initial intensity is set at 85 kt as a blend of the final-T\r\nand CI numbers.  Strong vertical shear is expected to persist over\r\nNicole, increasing and turning out of the north during the next\r\nseveral days.  As a result, continued weakening is anticipated, and\r\nthe intensity models indicate that Nicole's winds should gradually\r\ndiminish in strength through day 4.  By day 5, the vertical shear\r\nmay decrease, and Nicole could regain some strength at the end of\r\nthe forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows\r\nthe ICON intensity consensus, which puts it slightly below the\r\nprevious forecast for much of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThere has been no recent microwave data to help locate the center,\r\nbut cloud motions suggest that Nicole is drifting southward.  The\r\noverall steering currents are expected to remain weak for several\r\nmore days.  However, for the next 48 hours, Nicole will be situated\r\nbetween a digging shortwave trough and a mid-level high between it\r\nand Hurricane Matthew, which should cause Nicole to move slowly\r\nsouthward.  After that time, the cyclone could be close enough to\r\nMatthew's circulation to cause it to turn northward.  While the\r\ntrack models don't agree on how far south Nicole will move, they do\r\nall generally show the same solutions of very little net motion\r\nthrough five days.  The updated NHC track is adjusted from the\r\nprevious track forecast toward the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 27.3N  65.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 27.0N  65.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 26.1N  65.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 25.2N  64.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 24.8N  65.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 25.4N  65.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 27.5N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 30.0N  66.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-10-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nStrong shear has taken its toll on Nicole overnight.   The cyclone's\r\ncloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated, with the low-level center\r\nnow exposed to the northwest of a greatly reduced area of deep\r\nconvection. Dvorak Final T-numbers have decreased quickly to T3.5\r\nfrom SAB and TAFB, and a blend of these and CI-numbers was used to\r\nset the initial intensity to 65 kt at 1200 UTC. Since the cloud\r\npattern has degraded even further since that time, the advisory\r\nintensity is lowered to 60 kt, which could prove to be generous.\r\n\r\nNicole has barely been moving, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis nearly stationary.  Although Nicole remains in a region of weak\r\nsteering at the moment, a blocking mid-level high should build\r\nnorth of the cyclone soon, and impart a slow motion generally\r\ntoward the south for the next couple of days.  Around 48 hours, a\r\nmid-level ridge is forecast to develop to the east of Nicole, which\r\nshould result in the cyclone gradually turning northward with\r\nsome increase in forward speed through the remainder of the\r\nforecast period.  Most of the model guidance is in better agreement\r\nthan yesterday on this scenario, which increases the overall\r\nconfidence of the track forecast.  The new track forecast is based\r\non a consensus of the regional and global models minus the GFDL.\r\n\r\nA potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough digging to the east\r\nof Nicole should cause deep-layer northerly shear over the cyclone\r\nto increase further today.  In the wake of the shortwave, the shear\r\nshould veer to the north-northeast but remain just as strong\r\nthrough about 72 hours. Nicole is also shown interacting with a lobe\r\nof vorticity that fractures from the shortwave, but it remains\r\nunclear how this interaction would affect the cyclone's intensity or\r\nstructure. Regardless, the overall hostile environment should cause\r\nweakening, perhaps even more than indicated in this forecast.\r\nIndications are that late in the forecast period the large- scale\r\nenvironment should become more conducive for Nicole to re-intensify,\r\nbut to what extent is in doubt.  As a result of developments\r\novernight, the new intensity forecast is substantially lower than\r\nthe previous one and is below all of the intensity guidance through\r\n72 hours.  It is near the multi-model consensus after that time,\r\nalthough this part of the forecast is of low confidence.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 27.5N  65.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 27.0N  65.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 26.1N  64.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 25.4N  64.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 25.3N  65.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 26.6N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 28.8N  66.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 32.0N  65.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-10-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nNicole is a heavily sheared tropical cyclone.  The well-defined\r\nlow-level center is partially exposed on the northwest side of a\r\nbursting mass of deep convection.  Dvorak Final-T numbers have\r\ncontinued to decrease to T3.0 from both satellite agencies, and a\r\nblend of those with CI-numbers yields an initial intensity of\r\n55 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole has begun to move southward, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis 185/04.  A blocking high north of Nicole should continue to push\r\nthe cyclone slowly southward during the next couple of days.  After\r\nthat time, the mid-level ridge is forecast to rebuild east of\r\nNicole, and there is the potential for a binary interaction with\r\nweakening Matthew to the west in 2 to 3 days.  This should cause\r\nNicole to do an about-face and begin moving northwestward or\r\nnorth-northwestward from days 2 to 4.  A turn toward the north is\r\nexpected by day 5 once the binary interaction ends and Nicole is on\r\nthe cusp of entering a stronger mid-latitude southwesterly flow.\r\nAlthough the bulk of the model guidance is in basic agreement with\r\nthis scenario, there are speed differences amongst the models that\r\nmake the track forecast of lower confidence than average.\r\n\r\nGlobal models show no diminution of the northerly shear over\r\nNicole for the next two days or so.  A further complication is\r\nNicole's interaction during this same time period with a fractured\r\nlobe of vorticity from a shortwave trough to the east that wraps\r\naround the circulation.  The net result of all of this is that the\r\ncyclone could weaken a bit further or remain steady state as a weak\r\ntropical storm for 2 to 3 days, which is what the official forecast\r\nand SHIPS model output indicates.  After that time, the shear is\r\nforecast to decrease and the flow aloft is likely to become much\r\nmore diffluent, both of which support some re-intensification.  This\r\nis shown in the latter part of the forecast period, which likewise\r\nis in good agreement with SHIPS model output.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 27.0N  65.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 26.2N  65.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 25.4N  64.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 25.1N  64.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 25.5N  65.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 27.4N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 29.7N  66.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 32.6N  66.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-10-08 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016\r\n\r\nStrong northerly shear continues to cause all of Nicole's deep\r\nconvection to be located in the southern semicircle of the storm.\r\nThe deep convection has been going up and down, very typical\r\nfor this type of sheared tropical cyclone.  ASCAT showed a sizable\r\narea of winds near 45 kt, and after considering the low bias of\r\nthe instrument for a small tropical cyclone, the initial wind speed\r\nis reduced to 50 kt.  This is also consistent with a blend of the\r\nDvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.\r\n\r\nNicole is moving southward at about 6 kt.  A motion toward the south\r\nor south-southeast is anticipated for the next day or so while the\r\ntropical cyclone is steered on the east side of a mid-level high\r\nbetween Nicole and Matthew.  The forecast gets very tricky in a\r\ncouple of days, with the mid-level high breaking down and Matthew\r\nprobably moving toward Nicole.  The possibility of tropical cyclone\r\nbinary interaction appears to be increasing, which could cause\r\nNicole to move toward the north or north-northwest in the 3 to 5 day\r\nperiod. The details of this interaction, however, are very sketchy,\r\nwith models presenting a variety of fairly divergent solutions.  The\r\nnew NHC forecast is close to the ensemble means of the UKMET, ECMWF\r\nand GFS, which ends up south of the previous forecast at short\r\nrange, and to the east of the previous forecast at long range. These\r\nare relatively small changes since it is probably best not to move\r\nthe forecast very much until the models come into better agreement\r\non the final phase of Matthew.\r\n\r\nNortherly shear is forecast to continue near Nicole over the next\r\ntwo or three days.  Models do not show as much weakening as one\r\nmight think, perhaps due to the very warm water that Nicole will be\r\ntraversing, or due to Nicole's possible interaction with a shortwave\r\ntrough.  After that time, global models generally show a decrease\r\nin shear and a diffluent upper-level pattern, which would support\r\nsome restrengthening. The model guidance is slightly higher than the\r\nlast cycle, and the latest NHC prediction is nudged in that\r\ndirection, although the new forecast is on the low side of the\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nNeedless to say, this is a fairly uncertain forecast overall\r\nbecause Matthew could play a large role in a few days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 26.3N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 25.5N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 24.7N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 24.8N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 25.5N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 27.7N  65.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 30.5N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 33.5N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-10-08 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's structure has changed dramatically just within the past\r\nsix hours due to about 45 kt of northerly shear.  The deep\r\nconvection is now oriented linearly from east to west and is\r\ndisplaced more than 100 n mi to the south of the exposed low-level\r\ncenter.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers have dropped to 3.0 from\r\nTAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT, and Nicole's initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer northerly flow continues to push Nicole southward, and\r\nthe initial motion is estimated to be 190/6 kt.  The winds on the\r\nwest side of a mid-level low should continue forcing Nicole\r\ngenerally southward for the next 24-36 hours until these two\r\nsystems become collocated with one another.  After 36 hours, Nicole\r\nis expected to be steered back toward the north, ahead of Hurricane\r\nMatthew's remnant mid-level circulation.  There are some\r\ndifferences among the track models associated with exactly how\r\nthe interaction between Nicole and Matthew will play out.  The\r\nnotable outlier is the ECMWF model, which swings Nicole\r\nnorthwestward and then westward around the north side of Matthew\r\nafter 48 hours.  In deference to this model, the new NHC track\r\nforecast is a little west and slower than the previous forecast,\r\nand it lies very close to an average of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe vertical shear affecting Nicole is expected to remain high for\r\nseveral more days, possibly not dropping below 20 kt until after 72\r\nhours.  Still, sea surface temperatures will remain between 29 and\r\n30C, so Nicole may be able to continue producing bursts of deep\r\nconvection that will prevent its intensity from decreasing much.\r\nSome restrengthening at the end of the forecast period is possible,\r\nalthough trends are suggesting that the shear may once again\r\nincrease by day 5.  Based on the latest guidance, the official\r\nintensity forecast is lowered by 5 kt for much of the forecast\r\nperiod.  If the shear wins out, however, then Nicole's intensity\r\ncould end up being lower than shown in the forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 25.9N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 25.2N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 24.7N  65.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 24.8N  65.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 25.4N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 28.0N  66.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 30.0N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 32.5N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-10-08 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern has further deteriorated this morning.  The\r\nlow-level center has been exposed, with generally only shallow\r\nconvection on the southern and eastern periphery of the cyclone's\r\ncirculation.  A new burst of deeper convection has developed\r\nsoutheast of the center in the last couple of hours, however. Dvorak\r\nFinal-T numbers continue to decrease, and a blend of those data and\r\nCI-numbers support lowering the initial intensity estimate to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole is moving just west of due south or 190/06.  A blocking high\r\nnorth of the cyclone should continue to push it southward for about\r\n24 hours. Nicole should then reverse its heading and turn north-\r\nnorthwestward, when the mid-level high shifts to its northeast.  A\r\npotential complication to the track forecast is the degree to which\r\nNicole interacts with Matthew or its remnants, beginning in 2 to 3\r\ndays through the latter part of the forecast period.  The ECMWF\r\nshows a stronger binary interaction and draws Nicole much farther\r\nwest than the GFS after 72 hours, and the differences in the models\r\nby 96 hours become extreme. The track forecast philosophy continues\r\nto closely follow a blend of the ECMWF and GFS model solutions,\r\nthough slightly more weight has been placed on the GFS-based\r\nguidance since a sizable number of ECMWF ensemble members are east\r\nof its deterministic run. Admittedly, the forecast on days 4 and 5\r\nare of low confidence.\r\n\r\nThe shear is forecast to be so strong in the short term that one\r\nmight be tempted to call for Nicole to degenerate to a remnant low,\r\nespecially given its current satellite appearance.  However, the\r\nshear is forecast to nominally decrease, when the tail of a mid-\r\nto upper-level trough over the central Atlantic fractures and\r\nbecomes co-located with the tropical cyclone during the next day\r\nor so. How the merger of the two affects Nicole's intensity\r\nand structure remains unclear.  Nonetheless, the large-scale\r\nconditions are shown to become less hostile in 2 to 4 days, and it\r\nseems plausible that some re-intensification of the cyclone could\r\noccur before becoming less favorable again by day 5.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous one and below\r\nthe multi-model consensus, and continues to show a modest recovery\r\nafter 72 hours.  The intensity forecast continues to be of low\r\nconfidence in the long range.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 25.2N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 24.6N  65.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 24.2N  65.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 24.8N  65.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 25.7N  66.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 28.3N  66.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 33.4N  64.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-10-08 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nA tremendous burst of deep convection has developed this afternoon,\r\npartially covering and southeast of Nicole's low-level center. A\r\nlate-morning ASCAT pass indicated 41-kt uncontaminated wind vectors\r\neast of the center, and given the recent burst of convection, the\r\ninitial intensity estimate is increased to 45 kt. This is in\r\nagreement with latest Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 195/05.  A blocking ridge north of\r\nNicole should keep Nicole moving on this general course for another\r\n12 hours or so, though its forward speed should begin to decrease.\r\nAs the ridge shifts to the northeast of Nicole by late tomorrow, the\r\ncyclone should reverse its motion 180 degrees and begin moving\r\nnorth-northwestward.  The global models continue to show a binary\r\ninteraction between Matthew or its remnants in 2 to 3 days, but the\r\nECMWF no longer is drawing Nicole as far west as it was previously.\r\nA turn toward the north and then northeast is expected by days 4 and\r\n5.  The track guidance has come into much better agreement and has\r\nresulted in a more confident track forecast this cycle.  The new\r\nforecast track is slower than the previous one and shifted a bit to\r\nthe east but not as far east as the model consensus aids.\r\n\r\nAs high as the vertical shear has been over Nicole, it is puzzling\r\nthat no additional weakening has taken place.  At a minimum, the\r\nstrong northerly shear should preclude significant intensification\r\nin the short term.  A nominal decrease in the shear over the next\r\ncouple of days could allow Nicole to re-intensify, perhaps more than\r\nindicated in this forecast.  A more substantial reduction of the\r\nshear is forecast by 72 hours, and a re-intensification of the\r\ncyclone seems more likely than it did earlier on days 3 and 4,\r\nsimilar to what the global models have been showing.  By the end of\r\nthe forecast period, increasing shear could cause the intensity to\r\nlevel off. The new intensity forecast is higher than the previous\r\none and is generally near the multi-model consensus. It continues to\r\nbe of low confidence after 48 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 24.8N  65.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 24.2N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 24.2N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 24.7N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 25.7N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 27.5N  66.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 30.4N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 33.9N  62.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-10-09 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 08 2016\r\n\r\nStrong convection continues to fire near the center of Nicole,\r\nalthough microwave data still suggest the center is on the\r\nnorthern edge of the convection.  Dvorak estimates range from 37 to\r\n55 kt for this advisory, so the initial wind speed is held at 45\r\nkt. Northerly wind shear is forecast to continue for the next couple\r\nof days, perhaps at a slightly weaker value than the current 35 kt.\r\nBy about Tuesday, almost all of the global models drop the shear\r\nsignificantly, which will probably allow Nicole to restrengthen\r\nsince it will be moving over very warm waters.  The guidance is more\r\ninsistent on this cycle that Nicole will become a hurricane again by\r\nday 4, and the official forecast goes with this scenario.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 180/4, a little to the left of earlier.\r\nNicole should meander for a day or so before a ridge to the east\r\nbuilds, causing the tropical cyclone to move slowly northward until\r\nabout day 2.  Some interaction with the remnants of Matthew are\r\nlikely to steer Nicole to the northwest for about a day until Nicole\r\nturns back to the north and northeast in increasing southwesterly\r\nflow.  Models are in good agreement on this unusual Atlantic track\r\nscenario, so very little change was made to the previous NHC\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 24.4N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 24.0N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 24.4N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 25.2N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 26.3N  65.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 28.0N  66.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 30.5N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 34.0N  62.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016\r\n\r\nWithout any recent microwave data, it has been difficult to locate\r\nNicole's center.  However, the center is fully embedded beneath the\r\ndeep convection, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nsupport holding the maximum winds at 45 kt.  Northerly shear\r\naffecting the cyclone has decreased a little since this time\r\nyesterday and is now analyzed to be about 35 kt.  The magnitude of\r\nthe shear should continue to gradually decrease, reaching a minimum\r\nin about 2 to 3 days.  After that time, the shear could once again\r\nincrease when Nicole gets closer to the mid-latitude westerlies.\r\nDue to the ebbs and flows of the shear, the NHC intensity forecast\r\nshows little change in strength for the next 36 hours and then\r\nindicates gradual strengthening from day 2 through day 5.  This\r\nforecast shows the same general trend indicated in the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nNicole has been drifting southward but now appears to be almost\r\nstationary as it becomes collocated with a nearby mid-level low\r\npressure area.  Little motion is expected for the next day or so,\r\nbut Nicole should begin to move slowly northward after 24 hours\r\nwhen it is picked up by two shortwave troughs moving off the east\r\ncoast of the United States.  A northeastward acceleration is\r\nexpected by the end of the forecast period once Nicole becomes\r\nestablished within mid-latitude westerly flow.  The ECMWF model\r\nremains a western outlier since it shows a little more interaction\r\nbetween Nicole and Matthew's remnant mid-level circulation.\r\nHowever, the updated NHC track forecast is close to the previous\r\nforecast and remains between the GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 24.3N  65.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 24.3N  65.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 24.9N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 25.9N  65.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 26.9N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 28.4N  66.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 31.0N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 35.0N  60.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016\r\n\r\nOvernight microwave data indicated that Nicole had formed a\r\nwell-defined low- to mid-level eye, embedded within a significant\r\nconvective burst. Since then, the shear has caused the new\r\nconvective growth to diminish and pushed the coldest cloud tops\r\nsouth of the low-level center. Satellite classifications are T3.0\r\nand T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A blend of these is used\r\nto set the initial intensity estimate to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole appears to have drifted southeastward during the last\r\nseveral hours, but is now essentially stationary.  The blocking\r\nridge north of Nicole has begun to shift eastward, which should\r\ncause the cyclone to begin a slow motion, generally toward the\r\nnorth. Variations in the orientation and strength of this ridge in\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF solutions result in either a north-northeastward\r\nor north-northwestward motion, respectively, during the next couple\r\nof days, and these differences could have implications on Nicole's\r\ntrack longer term. A turn toward the northeast is expected late in\r\nthe period when Nicole reaches the mid-latitude westerly flow. The\r\nsplit in the track guidance over the forecast period is notable\r\nthis cycle, with the ECMWF and all but a few of its 0000 UTC\r\nensemble members even or left of the previous forecast track. All of\r\nthe other track guidance is to the east, including the GFS which is\r\nthe rightmost of the members in this camp.  The new forecast track\r\nis very near the previous one in deference to the ECMWF and its\r\nensemble output even though the model consensus aids are to the\r\neast through 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe strong northerly shear over Nicole has marginally decreased\r\nsince yesterday, but is forecast to remain at about the same\r\nmagnitude for another 24 hours. The shear should then gradually\r\ndiminish until about day 3, and Nicole is likely to find itself in\r\nthe lowest-shear environment it has seen in several days.  Since\r\nthe cyclone will be over anomalously warm waters at that time, in a\r\nmoist environment and under a somewhat diffluent flow aloft,\r\nintensification seems likely.  The intensity forecast is increased\r\nover the previous one and is slightly above the multi-model\r\nconsensus.  It should be noted that the global models show\r\nsignificant deepening of Nicole starting around this time,\r\npotentially much more than what is indicated in this forecast.\r\nSouthwesterly shear should greatly increase by day 4, which could\r\ncurb any additional intensification after that time unless the\r\ncyclone's intensification is being driven by baroclinic forcing.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 24.0N  65.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 24.4N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 25.2N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 26.1N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 27.0N  65.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 28.6N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 31.8N  64.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 34.9N  59.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern has become better organized this afternoon.\r\nDeep convection has been pulsing but, unlike yesterday, it has not\r\ndiminished.  The cyclone's maintenance of deep convection suggests\r\nthat the vertical shear has decreased, which is supported by the\r\nSHIPS analyses. In addition, the low-level center is underneath but\r\non the northwestern side of a formative and expanding central dense\r\novercast, consisting of cold cloud tops. Dvorak classifications are\r\nT3.5 from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity estimate is\r\ntherefore raised to 55 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole has been nearly stationary during the last several hours.  A\r\nslow motion generally toward the north or north-northwest is\r\nexpected to commence soon, now that the blocking high north of it\r\nhas slid to the northeast of Nicole. A shortwave trough currently\r\nover the northeastern United States is shown in global model\r\nsolutions bypassing Nicole in about 2 days.  The ECMWF has stronger\r\nridging in the wake of this feature than the GFS, and thus carries\r\nNicole farther to the west as did the 0000 UTC ECMWF ensembles.  A\r\nturn toward the north and northeast is likely after 72 hours once\r\nNicole reaches a belt of stronger mid-latitude southwesterly flow.\r\nThe new track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of the\r\nprevious one and is slower, and it is shifted again toward the\r\nECMWF. The NHC track is close to an average of the ECMWF and GFS\r\nmodels and to the west of the other model consensus aids.\r\n\r\nNortherly vertical shear of 20 to 25 kt over Nicole will continue\r\nfor about another 24 hours, which should prevent significant\r\nintensification from occurring.  After that time, the shear is\r\nforecast to gradually diminish and remain relatively low until\r\nabout 3 days. The reduction of shear, in combination with\r\nnear-record warm SSTs, a relatively moist environment, and an\r\nincreasingly diffluent flow aloft, suggest that intensification is\r\nlikely.  The only caveat involves much a cooler and drier air mass\r\nin the wake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew would affect Nicole.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is increased again, much more than in the\r\nprevious advisory, and is near the high end of the guidance in\r\nclosest agreement with the SHIPS model.  It is worth mentioning that\r\nglobal models continue to show significant deepening in 2 to 3 days,\r\nstill more than indicated in the current forecast. The guidance\r\nshows a sharp increase in shear by 96 hours, which ordinarily would\r\ncurb any further intensification.  However, baroclinic forcing could\r\noffset the negative effects of the shear and Nicole should at a\r\nminimum maintain its intensity if not intensify a bit further.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 24.2N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 25.0N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 25.9N  65.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 26.6N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 27.2N  65.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 28.4N  66.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 31.3N  65.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 35.4N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016\r\n\r\nDepp convection associated with Nicole has decreased since the last\r\nadvisory, with the primary convection now confined to an area south\r\nof the center.  It is unclear whether this is due to the normal\r\ndiurnal convective minimum, entrainment of dry air seen near the\r\ncenter in water vapor imagery, or the result of cooling sea surface\r\ntemperatures under the stationary storm.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt, while the latest satellite\r\nconsensus estimate from CIMSS is 51 kt. Based on these data, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 55 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole is now drifting northward, and this motion should continue\r\nfor the next 12-24 hours as a blocking ridge of high pressure north\r\nof the cyclone weakens.  A deep-layer trough associated with former\r\nHurricane Matthew is forecast to pass north of Nicole, with a second\r\nridge passing north of the storm after 24 hours.  This should cause\r\na northwestward turn, and the guidance during this stage of the\r\nforecast has shifted left since the previous advisory.  After 72\r\nhours, a new trough moving eastward from the United States should\r\ncause Nicole to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The new\r\nforecast track is shifted to the left between 24-72 hours, but still\r\nlies to the east of the various consensus models.  After 72 hours,\r\nthe track lies a little north of the previous track.\r\n\r\nA combination of the above mentioned dry air, possible cooler\r\nwaters, and continuing strong northerly shear should limit\r\nintensification for the next 12 hours or so.  After that, the shear\r\nshould gradually subside and allow Nicole to intensify if the\r\ncyclone does not entrain too much low-level dry air brought\r\nsouthward due to Matthew.  The environment is most favorable at\r\nabout 72 hours, and the new intensity forecast calls for a slightly\r\nincreased peak intensity of 85 kt in best agreement with the SHIPS\r\nmodel.  After that time, the cyclone is expected to encounter the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies with increased shear partly compensated for\r\nby increased upper-level divergence. This environment should lead to\r\ngradual weakening with extratropical transition beginning near 120\r\nhours.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 24.4N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 25.1N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 26.0N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 26.6N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 27.1N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 28.5N  66.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 32.0N  64.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 37.0N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's overall convective pattern has changed little since the\r\nprevious advisory, with most of the convection located in the\r\neastern semicircle. However, during the past hour or two, a small\r\nburst of deep convection with tops to -80C has developed just east\r\nof the exposed low-level circulation center, signaling that dry air\r\nentrainment into the center of the cyclone has abated somewhat.\r\nSatellite current intensity (CI) estimates from TAFB and SAB remain\r\n55 kt, and a late-arriving ASCAT-A pass indicated 45-kt surface\r\nwinds in the western semicircle where no convection was present.\r\nBased on these data, the initial intensity remains 55 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole is moving slowly northward and the initial motion estimate is\r\n360/05 kt. The cyclone is expected to move slowly at around 5 kt for\r\nthe next 72 hours, beginning with a motion toward the north today,\r\nfollowed by a turn to the north-northwest tonight, and a turn toward\r\nthe northwest on Tuesday. By 36-48 hours, a break in the ridge to\r\nthe north of Nicole is forecast to develop as a shortwave trough\r\nmoves off of the U.S. east coast and erodes the blocking ridge. This\r\nshould allow Nicole to move northward by 48 hours and turn toward\r\nthe north-northeast and northeast by 72 hours. By 96 hours and\r\nbeyond, the aforementioned shortwave trough is forecast to capture\r\nthe cyclone and accelerate Nicole to the northeast over the north\r\nAtlantic. The global models are now in excellent agreement on this\r\ndeveloping track scenario, but have unfortunately shifted farther\r\nwest and are now much closer to Bermuda. The new NHC track forecast\r\nhas been shifted westward as a result, but still lies east of the\r\nconsensus model TVCN and the GFS-ECMWF solutions, which bring\r\nNicole over or just west of Bermuda in about 84 hours.\r\n\r\nThe combination of northerly shear and some additional modest dry\r\nair entrainment is expected to inhibit development today. However,\r\nby Tuesday the vertical wind shear is forecast by the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels to decrease to less than 10 kt, and remain low until about 72\r\nhours. The low shear conditions and developing upper-level outflow\r\npattern as depicted in the global and regional models, along with\r\nNicole's already robust low- to mid-level circulations, should allow\r\nthe cyclone to strengthen and regain hurricane status during that\r\ntime. By 96 hours and beyond, southwesterly shear ahead of the\r\nshortwave trough is forecast to increase to 30-40 kt, which should\r\ninduce steady weakening. Extratropical transition is possible by 120\r\nhours, but most of the intensity guidance maintains Nicole as a\r\ntropical cyclone, which is reflected in the official forecast. The\r\nnew intensity forecast closely follows the SHIPS intensity model,\r\nwhich appears to have a good handle on the timing of the reduction\r\nof the vertical shear and associated strengthening, and also remains\r\nabove the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radius was expanded in the northeastern quadrant\r\nbased on 31-33 kt winds recently reported by NOAA Buoy 41049.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 25.0N  65.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 25.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 26.6N  65.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 27.2N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 27.8N  66.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 30.5N  66.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 34.5N  62.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 38.5N  56.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 10 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern has lost organization since late yesterday.\r\nA series of convective bursts over the last 24 hours faded away into\r\na shallow and shapeless cloud mass earlier this morning.  Since\r\nthen, some deep convection has redeveloped over the low-level center\r\nbut there has been no apparent increase to its organization. A blend\r\nof the Final-T and CI-number from the TAFB satellite classification\r\nand UW-CIMSS ADT values are used to lower the initial intensity\r\nestimate to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nNicole has been moving slowly northward or 360/05 as it moves\r\nalong the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge to its\r\nnortheast.  While this general motion should continue today, a\r\nshortwave trough trekking across Atlantic Canada is expected to\r\nbypass Nicole during the next 24 hours, and allow a weak mid-level\r\nridge to build north and west of the cyclone during the next day or\r\ntwo.  This synoptic pattern should result in a leftward bend of\r\nthe track through about 48 hours.  After that time, global models\r\nshow Nicole turning northward and then northeastward with an\r\nincrease in forward speed once it reaches a faster-paced westerly\r\nflow around 30N.  Although the track guidance is in much better\r\nagreement than it has been during the last few days, the theme from\r\nyesterday of the ECMWF and its 0000 UTC ensemble members showing\r\nNicole with a greater westerly component of motion from 24 to 72\r\nhours persists. In fact, a majority of the ECMWF ensembles members\r\nare still, to varying degrees, left of the current forecast.  The\r\nnew track forecast is again adjusted to left of the previous one,\r\ncloser to the ECMWF, and is west of the model consensus aids.\r\n\r\nDuring the last 24 hours, a piece of vorticity that fractured from\r\na central Atlantic shortwave trough has been merging with Nicole.\r\nThe interaction of this feature with Nicole and a continuation of\r\nstrong northerly shear could explain the degraded satellite\r\nappearance of Nicole since yesterday.  Nonetheless, the shear\r\nis still forecast to diminish during the next day or two, as the\r\ncyclone traverses near-record warm SSTs, finds itself in a\r\nreasonably moist environment and an increasingly diffluent flow\r\naloft.  These factors suggest that a significant re-intensification\r\nis still possible, as the global models continue to show.  The only\r\ncaveat would be to what degree a drier and more stable air in the\r\nwake of Post-Tropical Matthew would modify as it is at least\r\npartially ingested by Nicole's circulation.  SHIPS model output\r\nshows the shear greatly increasing by 96 hours, which would likely\r\nresult in an end to the predicted intensification phase unless\r\nbaroclinic processes become dominant and result in just a little bit\r\nmore.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and\r\nis close to the multi-model consensus.  It should be noted that\r\nglobal models show Nicole becoming a large hurricane in about 3\r\ndays, with a wide distribution of strong winds over the central\r\nAtlantic.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 25.7N  65.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 26.4N  65.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 27.2N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 27.7N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 28.5N  66.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 31.8N  65.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 36.7N  59.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 41.2N  53.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016\r\n \r\nWhile Nicole's convective organization has not changed much over\r\nthe last several hours, satellite data indicate that the cyclone is\r\nmaintaining a well-defined inner-core structure. Several bands have\r\nalso developed over the eastern half of the circulation.  An ASCAT\r\npass received after the previous advisory's issuance indicated a\r\ncouple of reliable 50-kt wind vectors, and the initial intensity\r\nestimate is set to this value in basic agreement with satellite\r\nclassifications.\r\n \r\nNicole appears to have turned slightly west of due north, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 355/05.  This general motion is expected\r\nto continue through tonight or early Tuesday while a shortwave\r\ntrough treks across Atlantic Canada and bypasses the storm to the\r\nnorth.  In the wake of this weather system, a weak low- to mid-level\r\nridge is forecast to build north and west of Nicole for a short\r\ntime, allowing the track to bend more toward the left. The ECMWF\r\ncontinues to predict a greater westerly component motion than the\r\nother guidance for the next 3 days, with still about half of the\r\nthe 0000 UTC ensemble members left of the current forecast.  Before\r\nNicole reaches 30N, it should encounter a stronger mid-latitude flow\r\nand recurve into the westerlies with increasing forward speed over\r\nthe next few days. The new track forecast continues to place greater\r\nweight on the ECMWF guidance suite, which results in the track being\r\nadjusted slightly left of the previous one through the forecast\r\nperiod.  It is in the middle of the 0000 UTC ECMWF ensemble output\r\nand to the left of the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n \r\nNicole is still struggling partially from mid- to upper-level dry\r\nair associated with a lobe of vorticity from a mid-latitude\r\nshortwave trough that has been wrapping around the cyclone's\r\ncirculation.  In addition, oceanic upwelling beneath the cyclone\r\nhas also likely contributed to the cyclone's lack of convective\r\nvigor.  Once Nicole starts to move farther west over untapped waters\r\nand its interaction with the above-mentioned feature ends, the\r\nstrong northerly shear affecting Nicole for days will have decreased\r\nsignificantly. With the tropical cyclone moving over near-record\r\nwarm SSTs at that time, in a reasonably moist large-scale\r\nenvironment, and under a diffluent flow at upper levels, a\r\nsignificant intensification is likely. Global models maintain the\r\ntheme of showing substantial deepening over the next few days.  By\r\n72 hours, or shortly thereafter, strong southwesterly shear could\r\nbring the predicted intensification to a close unless baroclinic\r\nprocesses counteract the shear enough to allow for some further\r\nincrease in strength.  Extratropical transition in shown by day 5.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is an update of the previous one and\r\ngenerally near or just above the model consensus aids.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  10/2100Z 26.3N  65.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 26.9N  65.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 27.5N  66.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 28.2N  66.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 29.5N  66.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 33.2N  64.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 38.1N  58.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 42.0N  54.2W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n \r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 10 2016\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear that has been hampering the development of\r\nNicole has diminished during the past 6-12 hours.  In response, the\r\ncyclone's convective pattern has become better organized and now is\r\ncomprised of a curved band over the eastern semicircle.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates have not changed significantly since the last\r\nadvisory, so the initial intensity remains 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 350/5.  During the next 12-24 hours, a\r\nmid-latitude shortwave trough currently seen in water vapor\r\nimagery north of Nicole is going to move eastward with a shortwave\r\nridge taking its place north of the tropical cyclone.  This should\r\ncause Nicole to turn northwestward for a time.  After that, the\r\nridge moves eastward in advance of a second mid-latitude trough\r\nmoving eastward from the United States.  This evolution should lead\r\nto Nicole turning northward and then northeastward with an increase\r\nin forward speed as it recurves into the westerlies.  The forward\r\nmotion may slow near the 120 hour time as Nicole becomes a large\r\ncut-off extratropical low over the northern Atlantic.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the new track\r\nforecast is essentially an update of the previous track. The new\r\nforecast has the center of Nicole passing near or over Bermuda\r\nbetween 48 and 72 hours.\r\n\r\nNicole is forecast to be in a light shear environment over\r\nincreasing sea surface temperatures for the next 36-48 hours, and at\r\nthe moment none of the low-level cooler air brought southward in the\r\nwake of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew is entraining into the\r\nsystem. However, water vapor imagery shows a lot of dry air just\r\nnorthwest of the tropical cyclone, and this could slow\r\nintensification in an otherwise favorable environment.  After 48\r\nhours, Nicole is likely to weaken due to increasing shear, although\r\nthe dynamical models forecast increasing values of upper-level\r\ndivergence that should slow the weakening. Extratropical transition\r\nis expected to occur at about 120 hours. The new intensity forecast\r\nis almost the same as the previous forecast and lies near the upper\r\nedge of the intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 26.8N  65.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 27.4N  66.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 28.0N  66.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 28.9N  66.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 30.5N  66.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 34.5N  63.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 39.5N  57.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 42.0N  53.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has not become any better organized during the\r\npast several hours.  The low-level center is located on the\r\nnorthwestern edge of the thunderstorm activity and the Dvorak\r\nestimates have remained steady.  On this basis, the initial\r\nintensity is kept at 50 kt. The wind radii were decreased based on\r\nrecent ASCAT passes.\r\n\r\nNicole is expected to move over warm waters and into weaker shear\r\nconditions during the next 48 hours. This environment should result\r\nin strengthening and Nicole is expected to become a hurricane during\r\nthe next 24 hours. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus,\r\nwhich is not as aggressive as the GFS and the ECMWF intensity\r\nforecasts. After that time, the cyclone should become embedded\r\nwithin very strong wind shear, and a gradual weakening process\r\nshould begin. By the end of the forecast period, Nicole should have\r\nbecome a large extratropical low.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-\r\nnorthwest or 335 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are weak\r\nand Nicole should turn toward the north and move slowly around the\r\nwestern edge of a subtropical ridge. By 48 hours, the cyclone will\r\nbecome embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow and should\r\nturn to the northeast with a some increase in forward speed. The\r\nNHC forecast is just a little to the left of the previous one, and\r\nis basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN and TVCX.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 27.1N  65.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 27.5N  66.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 28.5N  67.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 29.5N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 31.5N  66.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 36.0N  62.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 40.0N  56.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 42.0N  53.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern has improved this morning, with several\r\nbands of convection wrapping around the center.  Recent microwave\r\nimagery has revealed a well-defined low-level eye feature and there\r\nare hints of a ragged banding eye forming in last few visible\r\nsatellite pictures. Based on the increase in organization the\r\ninitial intensity is increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement with\r\na Dvorak estimate from SAB.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter\r\naircraft is currently en route to investigate Nicole, and the data\r\nthey collect should provide a better estimate of the cyclone\r\nintensity and size this afternoon.\r\n\r\nThe shear that has been plaguing Nicole during the past several\r\ndays has weakened, and is expected to remain low during the next\r\nday or so.  This, along with warm waters along the forecast track,\r\nshould allow for strengthening during the 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole\r\nis predicted to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Later in\r\nthe forecast period, some weakening is predicted due to cooler\r\nwaters and increasing shear, but Nicole is expected to become a\r\npowerful extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory,\r\nand is closest to the SHIPS and GFDL model guidance.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt.\r\nNicole is forecast to turn northward into a break in the subtropical\r\nridge that is being caused by a mid-latitude trough that is\r\ncurrently passing to the north of Bermuda.  As Nicole approaches\r\nBermuda, it will reach the mid-latitude westerly flow, which should\r\ncause a turn toward the northeast and some increase in forward\r\nspeed.  The track guidance has come into much better agreement on\r\nthis scenario since yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast\r\nis near the middle of the now tightly clustered guidance.\r\n\r\nA Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda this\r\nafternoon.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 27.3N  65.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 27.7N  66.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 28.6N  66.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 30.2N  66.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 32.2N  65.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 36.8N  60.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 40.5N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  16/1200Z 41.8N  53.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016\r\n\r\nNicole has continued to strengthen today with the cloud pattern\r\nbecoming much better organized since this morning.  A 20 to 25 n mi\r\nwide eye has developed and become better defined within a rather\r\nsymmetric central dense overcast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft that investigated Nicole this afternoon has measured\r\npeak 850-mb flight-level winds of 79 kt, SFMR winds of around 65 kt,\r\nand a minimum pressure of 980 mb.  Based on these data, and the\r\ncontinued increase in organization the initial wind speed has been\r\nincreased to 70 kt.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and\r\nwarm sea surface temperatures along the track of Nicole should allow\r\nfor additional intensification during the next day or so.  In fact,\r\nthe SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows nearly a 30 percent\r\nchance of a 30 kt increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast has been increased from the previous\r\nadvisory and calls for Nicole to be near major hurricane strength\r\nwhen it passes near Bermuda in 36 to 48 hours.  The NHC forecast\r\ncalls for a faster increase in strength during the next 24 hours,\r\nbut is close to the peak shown by the LGEM and FSSE models.  Later\r\nin the forecast period increasing shear and cooler SSTs should\r\nresult in some weakening, but the global models predict that Nicole\r\nwill become a large and powerful extratropical low over the North\r\nAtlantic in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nSatellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Nicole is moving\r\nnorthwestward at about 4 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains\r\nunchanged from the previous advisory.  Nicole should turn northward\r\ninto a break in the subtropical ridge by Wednesday and then turn\r\nnortheastward as it reaches the mid-latitude westerlies.  The\r\ndynamical models remain in good agreement, and the updated NHC\r\nforecast is again near the middle of the guidance envelope.  The new\r\nofficial forecast is also very similar to the previous track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 27.4N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 28.0N  66.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 29.1N  67.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 30.8N  66.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 33.1N  64.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 38.0N  59.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 41.0N  54.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  16/1800Z 41.5N  53.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST TUE OCT 11 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern was quite impressive after the release of the\r\nprevious advisory, with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of cloud\r\ntops of around -70C.  However, by 00Z the eye was no longer apparent\r\nin geostationary imagery, and the Dvorak classifications from TAFB\r\nand SAB were T4.5/77 kt.  The eye has reappeared recently, but the\r\nconvective tops are a bit more ragged.  The initial intensity is set\r\nto 80 kt, between the subjective Dvorak estimates and the latest\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT of around 90 kt.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions appear conducive for some additional\r\nstrengthening in the next 24 hours or so, with the cyclone over\r\n28-29C waters and the shear 15 kt or less.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one during this time and is\r\nabove the consensus. The SHIPS model shows southwesterly shear\r\nincreasing to 45-50 kt by 48 hours, which should result in some\r\nweakening. Nicole will interact with an upper-level trough in 3-4\r\ndays, but global model fields and the FSU phase space diagrams\r\nsuggest that Nicole won't complete extratropical transition when it\r\nis left behind by the progressive trough by day 5. Therefore,\r\nthe NHC forecast shows Nicole as post-tropical at days 4 and 5, but\r\nbaroclinic forcing is expected to keep cyclone near hurricane\r\nintensity through the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nNicole has moved little during the past few hours, as the cyclone is\r\ncaught in a region of weak steering currents.  In fact, a slow\r\nlooping motion has been noted since the previous advisory, and the\r\nbest estimate of the initial motion is a westward drift at around 2\r\nkt. The synoptic reasoning has not changed, as Nicole is expected to\r\ngradually recurve into the mid-latitude westerlies in the next 48\r\nhours and then turn east-northeastward ahead of an upper-level\r\ntrough moving off the U.S. east coast. By the end of the period, the\r\ntrough leaves Nicole behind to the south of a ridge centered over\r\nthe Davis Strait, which should result in a slow southeastward drift\r\nat day 5. The NHC track has been shifted a little to the right of\r\nthe previous one and is a little slower during the first 36-48\r\nhours, bringing Nicole near or over Bermuda. Late in the period, a\r\nlarger rightward shift was made to the NHC track. The new official\r\nforecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and is\r\nclose to the latest multi-model consensus aid TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 27.3N  66.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 28.2N  66.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 29.6N  66.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 31.5N  65.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 33.9N  63.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 38.5N  56.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 40.5N  52.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  17/0000Z 40.0N  51.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's cloud pattern on satellite continues to be very impressive\r\nwith a large eye surrounded by deep convection and a good upper-\r\nlevel outflow in all quadrants. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain\r\n4.5/77 kt, but objective numbers from UW-CIMMS are up to 5.7 on the\r\nDvorak scale. The initial intensity is then set to 85 kt, based on\r\na blend of these estimates.  An Air Force plane will be in the eye\r\nof Nicole around 1200 UTC this morning, and will provide an\r\nintensity update.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions are conducive for some additional\r\nstrengthening in the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be at\r\nits peak in intensity while it moves near Bermuda.  After 36 hours,\r\nthe shear is forecast to increase significantly resulting in some\r\nweakening. Nicole should then become a post-tropical cyclone by 96\r\nhours.  Most of the global models indicate that the post-tropical\r\ncyclone will maintain winds of near hurricane strength, and so does\r\nthe NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Nicole is moving toward the north-\r\nnorthwest or 340 degrees at 6 kt. The steering pattern has not\r\nchanged, and in the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will become\r\nembedded in the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This pattern should\r\nforce Nicole to turn to the north-northeast and then east with a\r\ngradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is very\r\nsimilar to the previous one primarily during the next 24 to 36\r\nhours, bringing the core of Nicole very near or over Bermuda.  The\r\nforecast track is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is\r\nbasically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 27.9N  67.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 28.9N  67.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 30.6N  66.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 32.6N  64.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 35.0N  61.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 39.0N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 40.0N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  17/0600Z 40.0N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the hurricane has changed very little\r\nduring the past 6 to 12 hours.  Nicole remains a very symmetric\r\nhurricane with a distinct 30 nmi wide eye.  An Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft flew one alpha pattern through the storm\r\nthis morning and recorded peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 91 kt,\r\nSFMR winds of 79 kt, and a minimum pressure of 969 mb.  Since the\r\naircraft only sampled a small portion of the circulation, the\r\ninitial intensity is set 85 kt, which is a blend of the aircraft\r\ndata and the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite estimates.\r\nThe aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since\r\nyesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been\r\nadjusted accordingly.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some\r\nstrengthening while Nicole approaches Bermuda during the next day\r\nor so.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler\r\nsea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening.  Nicole\r\nis forecast to interact with a frontal boundary in about 72 hours,\r\nbut it is not clear as to whether Nicole will complete its\r\ntransformation into an extratropical low by days 4 and 5. For now,\r\nthe NHC forecast maintains persistence with the previous advisories\r\nand predicts Nicole to lose tropical characteristics by 96 h but\r\nremain an intense storm system over the north Atlantic.\r\n\r\nThe aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane has\r\nturned northward, and Nicole should stay on this heading with\r\nsome increase in forward speed today. The hurricane will become\r\nembedded within the mid-latitude flow on Thursday, which should\r\nsteer Nicole northeastward with an additional increase in forward\r\nspeed.  The NHC forecast is once again very close to the previous\r\nadvisory, and shows the core of Nicole passing near or over Bermuda\r\nbetween 24 and 36 hours.  Later in the period, the cyclone is\r\nforecast to slow down and meander over the north Atlantic as it\r\ninteracts with a large cut-off low well to the southeast of Atlantic\r\nCanada.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 28.4N  66.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 29.5N  66.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 31.5N  65.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 33.7N  63.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 35.8N  59.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 39.1N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 39.2N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  17/1200Z 39.2N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":35,"Date":"2016-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016\r\n\r\nNicole has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon.\r\nThe eye has warmed and become more distinct since this morning, and\r\nthe convective cloud tops surrounding the eye have cooled. As a\r\nresult, subjective Dvorak intensity estimates have increased to\r\nT5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB. Since earlier satellite estimates\r\nwere slightly higher than the intensity supported by this morning's\r\nreconnaissance data, the initial intensity has been raised to 95 kt,\r\nwhich is slightly lower than current Dvorak estimates. Another Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate\r\nNicole this evening and should provide a better assessment of the\r\nhurricane's intensity.\r\n\r\nLow vertical wind shear and warm waters along the path of the\r\nhurricane through tonight could allow for some additional\r\nstrengthening, and Nicole is forecast to reach major hurricane\r\nstrength before it passes Bermuda. After that time, increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause some weakening.\r\nStrong westerly shear in a couple of days is expected to cause\r\nNicole to become post-tropical, but baroclinic forcing is expected\r\nto keep the cyclone very strong through the entire forecast period.\r\nThere is a large amount of uncertainty in the global models as to\r\nhow much in the way of tropical characteristics Nicole will have\r\nlate in the period, and the status of the cyclone is of low\r\nconfidence at that time.\r\n\r\nNicole is moving just east of due north or 010/9 kt. The hurricane\r\nwill be moving into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow, which will\r\ncause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward and then\r\nnortheastward during the next 24 hours. This motion will bring the\r\ncore of the hurricane near or over Bermuda on Thursday. In about 72\r\nhours a shortwave trough is forecast to bypass the cyclone, which\r\nshould cause Nicole to slow down and meander over the North Atlantic\r\nat days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 29.2N  66.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 30.5N  66.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 32.7N  64.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 34.6N  61.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 36.6N  57.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 38.8N  51.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 38.8N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  17/1800Z 40.0N  49.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":36,"Date":"2016-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's satellite presentation has improved, with a warm, distinct,\r\n30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cloud tops of -70C. The large eye is\r\nalso now visible on the Bermuda radar. An Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft just measured a 700-mb wind of 119 kt\r\nand a peak SFMR wind of 118 kt. Based on these data, the initial\r\nintensity is set to 115 kt for this advisory. The latest\r\nextrapolated minimum pressure from the aircraft is around 950 mb, a\r\ndecrease of 20 mb since this morning. The aircraft data also showed\r\nan expansion of the hurricane force wind field in the northwest and\r\nsoutheast quadrants.\r\n\r\nThe shear is expected to increase quickly, reaching 25-30 kt by 12 h\r\nand 45-50 kt by 36 hours. This increase in shear and a gradual\r\ndecrease in SSTs should result in some weakening in the first 36\r\nto 48 hours, but baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude shortwave\r\ntrough should maintain Nicole as a powerful cyclone through the\r\nforecast period. The amount of tropical characteristics Nicole will\r\nhave late in the forecast period remains uncertain, as the cyclone\r\nwill not undergo a classical extratropical transition. Post-tropical\r\nstatus is shown at days 3 through 5, but confidence in this part of\r\nthe forecast remains low. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the\r\nlatest intensity consensus through 48 hours and is based on global\r\nmodels after that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 020/10, as Nicole is beginning to\r\nrecurve into the mid-latitude flow ahead of a broad longwave trough\r\nmoving offshore of the U.S. east coast. This synoptic pattern\r\nshould result in Nicole accelerating northeastward and then\r\neast-northwestward in the next 24 to 48 hours. After 72 hours, the\r\ntrough moves away from Nicole, and leaves the cyclone meandering in\r\na region of weak steering currents to the south of a high-latitude\r\nridge, and only a a slow eastward to northeastward drift is expected\r\nat days 4 and 5. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the\r\nprevious one through 24 hours, and continues to take the core of\r\nNicole near or over Bermuda on Thursday. After 24 hours, the new\r\nNHC track has been shifted a bit to the right, and lies to the right\r\nof the multi-model consensus, favoring a blend of the global models\r\nand their ensemble means.\r\n\r\nThe forecast at days 3 through 5 has been coordinated with the NOAA\r\nOcean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nNote that while hurricanes often affect Bermuda, a hurricane this\r\nstrong is rare. There have only been seven major hurricanes that\r\nhave passed within 40 n mi of Bermuda in the Atlantic hurricane\r\ndatabase, which goes back to 1851.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 30.1N  66.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 31.6N  65.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 33.8N  62.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 35.7N  59.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 37.3N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 38.5N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 38.5N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  18/0000Z 40.0N  49.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":37,"Date":"2016-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016\r\n\r\nNicole continues to have an impressive satellite presentation with\r\na warm, well-defined eye and strong eyewall convection.  The last\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a 700-mb wind\r\nof 118 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 114 kt.   These values are close\r\nto the previous mission, and based on these data, the initial\r\nintensity is kept at 115 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 025/13.  All of the guidance show the\r\ncore of Nicole very close to Bermuda later today, and only a small\r\nwestward adjustment was made to the first part of the forecast.\r\nNicole is beginning to accelerate generally northeastward ahead of a\r\nmid-latitude trough moving across the northern United States.\r\nHowever, this trough is forecast to move away from Nicole in a few\r\ndays, leaving the cyclone meandering over the North Atlantic well\r\nsoutheast of Newfoundland. A ridge is then forecast to build over\r\nthe far northeastern Atlantic east of Nicole, which should help the\r\nsystem resume a slow northeastward motion by day 5. The new forecast\r\nis basically an update of the previous one and is very close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nSouthwesterly shear is forecast by all of the global models to\r\nincrease rapidly today.  In combination with a slow decrease in\r\nSSTs, these factors will likely cause Nicole to lose strength\r\nsoon.  The steady weakening trend is forecast to level off in about\r\n36 hours as baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude shortwave trough\r\nshould help maintain Nicole as a strong cyclone through rest of the\r\nforecast period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the\r\nprevious forecast, the intensity consensus and the global model\r\nfields beyond 48 hours. While no changes were made to the timing of\r\nNicole becoming post-tropical, there is considerable uncertainty on\r\nexactly what structure Nicole will have in a few days time.\r\nRegardless, all models forecast Nicole to be a large and powerful\r\ncyclone for the next several days.\r\n\r\nThe forecast at days 3 through 5 has been coordinated with the NOAA\r\nOcean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 31.1N  65.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 32.7N  64.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 34.8N  61.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 36.4N  57.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 37.7N  53.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 39.0N  49.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 38.5N  49.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  18/0600Z 40.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake/Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":38,"Date":"2016-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016\r\n\r\nSouthwesterly shear is beginning to affect Nicole.  Microwave\r\nimagery and Bermuda radar indicate that the eye has lost some\r\ndefinition and become open to the south.  There is also a\r\nsignificant southwest to northeast tilt between the low-level\r\ncenter as noted between the radar and satellite presentations\r\nof the eye, and the Air Force center fix that was located near the\r\nextreme western part of the eye seen in satellite imagery.  The Air\r\nForce Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled the\r\neastern portion of the eyewall where the strongest winds were\r\nreported overnight, however, they have reported a minimum pressure\r\n961 mb, which is up several millibars since the previous fix.  Based\r\non the most recent aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates,\r\nthe initial wind speed has been set at 105 kt for this advisory.\r\nAlthough the area of strongest winds in the eastern eyewall are\r\nexpected to remain offshore of Bermuda, sustained hurricane-force\r\nwinds have been reported on the island during the past couple of\r\nhours. The official observing site at the airport has measured\r\nsustained winds of 67 kt with a gust to 90 kt within the past hour.\r\n\r\nIncreasingly southwesterly shear and slightly lower sea surface\r\ntemperatures along the forecast track of Nicole should cause a\r\ngradual decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours.\r\nAfter that time, baroclinic forcing is forecast by the global\r\nmodels to keep Nicole an intense low pressure area over the\r\nnorth Atlantic through early next week.  The days 3-5 intensity\r\nforecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nNicole has turned northeastward as expected.  The hurricane will\r\nmove northeastward with some acceleration in forward speed as it\r\nbecomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude\r\ntrough.  The trough is forecast to bypass Nicole in a couple of\r\ndays, which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and\r\nmeander well southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period.\r\nThe track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is\r\nagain near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 32.3N  64.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 33.8N  62.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 35.5N  58.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 37.0N  54.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 38.3N  51.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 39.0N  48.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 39.0N  47.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  18/1200Z 41.0N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":39,"Date":"2016-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Nicole is weakening as it moves\r\naway from Bermuda, most likely due to increasing southwesterly\r\nvertical shear.  The eye has mostly disappeared since the last\r\nadvisory, and there has been some warming of the cloud tops near the\r\ncenter.  Subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nare 102 and 90 kt, respectively, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate\r\nis 112 kt.  The initial intensity is reduced to 95 kt based mainly\r\non the subjective estimates and continuity from earlier aircraft\r\ndata.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned in the previous advisory, increasing southwesterly\r\nshear and slightly lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast\r\ntrack should cause a gradual decrease in intensity during the next\r\n24 to 36 hours.  After that time, baroclinic forcing forecast by the\r\ndynamical models should keep Nicole as an intense low pressure area\r\nover the north Atlantic through early next week.  What structure the\r\ncyclone might have later in the forecast period is uncertain, with\r\nthe GFS and UKMET suggesting that the tropical cyclone warm core\r\ncould become secluded with no cold air reaching the center.  Based\r\non this, the forecast continues to call for a post-tropical cyclone\r\nand not a fully extratropical/frontal cyclone. The intensity\r\nforecast is mainly an update of the previous forecast, and the 3-5\r\nday intensity forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the\r\nNOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 040/18.  The hurricane will continue\r\nnortheastward as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead\r\nof a mid-latitude trough.  The dynamical guidance continues to\r\nforecast that the trough should bypass Nicole in a couple of days,\r\nwhich is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and meander well\r\nsoutheast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period. The track\r\nguidance remains in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is again\r\nnear the multi-model consensus and the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 33.6N  63.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 35.0N  60.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 36.4N  56.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 37.8N  53.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 38.8N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 39.0N  48.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 39.6N  46.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  18/1800Z 42.0N  41.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":40,"Date":"2016-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST THU OCT 13 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Nicole has degraded substantially this\r\nevening, with the area of cold convective tops shrinking in size and\r\nbecome less symmetric.  The low-level center is difficult to locate\r\nin geostationary imagery, but recent microwave data suggest it is\r\nlocated to the southwest of the coldest convective tops.  This\r\nstructure is consistent with the 40-45 kt of southwesterly shear\r\nanalyzed over Nicole by the SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS.  The initial\r\nintensity has been lowered to 85 kt, which is between the latest\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nNicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due to the\r\npersistent strong shear and cooling SSTs.  However, from 24-48\r\nhours, forcing associated with a shortwave trough should cause\r\nNicole to remain a powerful cyclone, and the intensity is maintained\r\nat 75 kt through that time.  After the shortwave moves past Nicole,\r\nslow decay is expected late in the period.  The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is lower than the previous one in the first 12-24 hours,\r\nfollowing the trend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance.\r\nAfter that time, the intensity forecast is based on global model\r\nguidance.  Note that the structure of Nicole is quite uncertain\r\nduring the forecast period, since the cyclone does not appear to\r\ncomplete extratropical transition, with the global models showing\r\nthe cyclone acquiring a warm seclusion structure.\r\n\r\nA 2201Z WindSat pass suggested that the center of Nicole was located\r\na little south of previous estimates.  The initial motion is\r\nestimated to be 060/18, as Nicole is now embedded in the mid-\r\nlatitude southwesterly flow ahead of a longwave trough moving off\r\nthe U.S. east coast.  This pattern should steer Nicole generally\r\neast-northeastward for the next 48 hours, although the forward speed\r\nwill decrease by 36 hours as Nicole interacts with the\r\naforementioned shortwave.  The trough moves east of Nicole by 72\r\nhours, leaving the cyclone in a region of weaker steering flow until\r\na high-latitude trough approaches from the northwest in 4-5 days,\r\nand cause Nicole to accelerate northeastward by the end of the\r\nforecast period.  The new NHC track forecast is a little south of\r\nthe previous one due to the initial position and is close to a blend\r\nof the GFS and ECMWF models through the period.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of Nicole's track, intensity, and wind\r\nradii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nNote that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of\r\nthe U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of\r\ndays.  By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period\r\nswell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the\r\nNorth Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 34.4N  61.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 35.6N  58.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 36.9N  54.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 38.1N  51.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 38.6N  49.0W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 39.0N  47.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 41.0N  44.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  19/0000Z 47.0N  37.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":41,"Date":"2016-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has degraded significantly during the past few\r\nhours. The low-level center is difficult to locate, but it appears\r\nto be separated and well to the southwest of an area of weakening\r\nconvection due to southwesterly shear.  This is supported by an\r\nASCAT pass a few hours ago, which showed the vigorous surface\r\ncirculation to the southwest of the limited thunderstorm activity.\r\nBased on Dvorak T-numbers which are weakening as fast as the rules\r\nallow, and data from ASCAT, the initial intensity is lowered to 75\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nAlthough Nicole should continue to weaken in the next 12 hours due\r\nto the strong shear and low SSTs, global models indicate that the\r\nsystem should remain a powerful cyclone for a few days. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is lower than the previous one, following the\r\ntrend of the latest hurricane intensity guidance. It is expected\r\nthat Nicole becomes a post-tropical cyclone is about 24 hours or so,\r\nbut it is uncertain when Nicole will complete the extratropical\r\ntransition.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is be 065/18. Nicole is\r\nwell embedded within the mid-latitude flow, and this pattern should\r\nsteer Nicole generally east-northeastward for the next day or\r\nso. Some decrease in forward speed is anticipated beyond 36 hours\r\nwhile Nicole interacts with passing shortwaves. The NHC forecast is\r\nin the middle of the tight guidance envelope primarily during the\r\nnext 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of Nicole's track, intensity, and wind\r\nradii forecast has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nNote that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of\r\nthe U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of\r\ndays.  By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period\r\nswell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the\r\nNorth Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 35.4N  59.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 36.5N  56.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 37.7N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 38.5N  50.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 39.0N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 39.0N  46.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 42.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  19/0600Z 48.0N  38.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":42,"Date":"2016-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016\r\n\r\nNicole continues to become less organized in satellite imagery,\r\nwith the main convective area now well removed from the center over\r\nthe northern semicircle and only shallow convection remaining near\r\nthe center.  The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB are 77 and 55 kt respectively, and the latest CIMSS SATCON\r\nestimate is 68 kt.  Based on these data and the decay of the cloud\r\npattern, the initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 060/16.  Nicole is embedded in the\r\nmid-latitude westerlies to the southeast of a deep-layer trough\r\nmoving eastward through southeastern Canada.  The dynamical models\r\nforecast the trough to bypass Nicole to the north after 24 hours or\r\nso, which will weaken the steering flow and reduce Nicole's forward\r\nspeed during the 24-72 hour period.  Subsequently, a new mid-\r\nlatitude trough moving through southeastern Canada should steer\r\nNicole northeastward at a faster forward speed.  The guidance is\r\ntightly clustered through 48-72 hours, and this part of the forecast\r\ntrack is an update of the previous track.  Beyond that time, the\r\nguidance has shifted northward, and the new forecast track is also\r\nnudged northward.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models are in good agreement that Nicole should\r\ninteract with the mid-latitude trough starting in the next 12-24\r\nhours, with the models forecasting a central pressure below 950 mb\r\nin about 36 hours.  As this occurs, the cyclone is expected to\r\ndevelop into a post-tropical cyclone with the warm core secluded\r\ninside an encircling cooler air mass.  The guidance suggests that\r\nNicole will not fully develop frontal features during the forecast\r\nperiod, so the new intensity forecast calls for the system to\r\nremain a powerful post-tropical cyclone through 120 hours.  The\r\npost-tropical portion of Nicole's intensity and wind radii forecasts\r\nhave been modified based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction\r\nCenter.\r\n\r\nNote that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of\r\nthe U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of\r\ndays.  By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period\r\nswell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the\r\nNorth Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 35.8N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 36.9N  55.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 38.1N  51.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 38.5N  49.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 38.7N  48.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 40.0N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 44.5N  42.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  19/1200Z 51.0N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":43,"Date":"2016-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016\r\n\r\nA few patches of disorganized deep convection have formed closer to\r\nthe center of Nicole, although the majority of the cloud pattern is\r\nstill comprised of low- to mid-level clouds and shallow convection.\r\nBased on a satellite intensity estimate of 65 kt from TAFB and\r\nearlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is reduced to 65\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 065/17.  There is no change in the track\r\nforecast philosophy from the last advisory.   Nicole is embedded in\r\nthe mid-latitude westerlies to the southeast of a deep-layer trough\r\nmoving eastward through southeastern Canada.  The dynamical models\r\nforecast the trough to bypass Nicole to the north after 24 hours,\r\nwhich will weaken the steering flow and reduce Nicole's forward\r\nspeed during the 24-72 hour period.  Subsequently, a new mid-\r\nlatitude trough moving through southeastern Canada should steer\r\nNicole northeastward at a faster forward speed.  The guidance is\r\nstill tightly clustered through 72 hours, and this part of the\r\nforecast track is an update of the previous track.  Beyond that\r\ntime, the guidance has again shifted northward, with the ECMWF in\r\nparticular being faster and farther to the north than its previous\r\nrun. Based on this, the latter part of the new forecast track is\r\nagain nudged northward.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models remain in good agreement that Nicole should\r\ninteract with the mid-latitude trough starting in 12 hours or less,\r\nwith the models forecasting the winds to increase slightly and the\r\ncentral pressure to fall to 940-950 mb by 36 hours.  As this occurs,\r\nthe cyclone is most likely to develop into a post-tropical cyclone\r\nwith a convection-less warm core secluded inside an encircling\r\ncooler air mass.  However, an alternative scenario suggested by the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models is that organized convection re-develops inside\r\nthe warm seclusion during the next 48-72 hours and allows Nicole to\r\nmaintain tropical cyclone characteristics over sea surface\r\ntemperatures of about 24C. The intensity forecast continues to call\r\nfor the cyclone to become post-tropical, but there is lower\r\nconfidence that this will happen than on the previous advisory. As\r\ndone before, the post-tropical portion of Nicole's intensity and\r\nwind radii forecasts have been modified based on input from the NOAA\r\nOcean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nSwells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east\r\ncoast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early\r\nnext week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole\r\nwill radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 36.5N  55.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 37.5N  52.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 38.3N  50.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 38.5N  48.6W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 38.7N  47.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 40.5N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 47.0N  40.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  19/1800Z 53.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":44,"Date":"2016-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection redeveloped northeast of Nicole's center just after\r\n1800 UTC and has persisted since that time despite nearly 50 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly shear.  The Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB\r\nhas decreased to 3.5, and Nicole's initial intensity is therefore\r\nlowered conservatively to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe future classification of Nicole continues to be a quandary,\r\nonly because the system will be straddling the nebulous boundary of\r\nwhat constitutes a tropical and non-tropical cyclone.  Nicole\r\ncontinues to have a warm core and has not become attached to a\r\nfrontal boundary, and phase-space diagrams based off the global\r\nmodels indicate that the cyclone will only become more symmetric\r\nand develop a deeper warm core from this point forward.  Nicole\r\nwill likely become a warm seclusion, with its warm core isolated\r\nfrom surrounding colder air, and that structure could allow the\r\ncyclone to maintain tropical characteristics even at such a high\r\nlatitude.  Simulated infrared satellite imagery from the GFS and\r\nECMWF models suggests that the cyclone may even develop an eye-like\r\nfeature in a day or two.  Given these model trends, it has become\r\nmore likely that Nicole will retain tropical or subtropical\r\ncharacteristics, and the NHC forecast now does not show the system\r\nbecoming post-tropical until day 4.  This forecast remains highly\r\nuncertain, however, and does not eliminate the possibility of Nicole\r\nbecoming post-tropical during the next day or so.  Regardless of its\r\nclassification, Nicole is expected to restrengthen during the next\r\n12-24 hours, mostly due to forcing from an approaching mid-latitude\r\ntrough.  If more symmetric deep convection does develop, then the\r\ncyclone should be able to maintain hurricane intensity at least\r\nthrough day 3.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has increased to 065/19 kt.  However, Nicole is\r\nexpected to slow down considerably between 24-48 hours when it\r\ninteracts with the approaching shortwave trough and becomes cut off\r\nfrom the mid-latitude westerlies.  Another mid-latitude trough that\r\nwill move across Atlantic Canada on day 3 should cause Nicole to\r\naccelerate north-northeastward on days 4 and 5.  The track guidance\r\nis in very good agreement through the forecast period, and no\r\nsignificant changes were required from the previous NHC track\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThe radii on the western side of Nicole's circulation have been\r\nincreased based on a recent ASCAT-B pass.  Guidance from the NOAA\r\nOcean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nSwells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east\r\ncoast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early\r\nnext week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole\r\nwill radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 37.4N  53.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 38.2N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 38.6N  48.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 38.7N  47.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 39.0N  46.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 42.1N  43.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 50.5N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/0000Z 58.0N  34.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":45,"Date":"2016-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.\r\nPatches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of\r\nthe center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still\r\nwell defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt.\r\n\r\nAs mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is\r\ndifficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one\r\nshould tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition.\r\nHowever, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery\r\ncontinue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or\r\nso. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with\r\ntropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the\r\ncyclone to become post-tropical thereafter.\r\n\r\nAfter an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed\r\ndown a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about\r\n15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough\r\nand will continue to move with the trough on the same general track\r\nwith a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After\r\nthat time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably\r\nkick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nGuidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the\r\nforecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nSwells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east\r\ncoast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early\r\nnext week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole\r\nwill radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 38.1N  51.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 38.7N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 38.8N  48.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 39.0N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 39.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 44.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 54.5N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/0600Z 62.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":46,"Date":"2016-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016\r\n\r\nNicole has intensified since the last advisory, likely due to\r\nbaroclinic influences from a nearby upper-level trough.\r\nJust-received ASCAT-B data shows 70-75 kt winds to the southwest of\r\nthe center, and a drifting buoy south of the center reported a\r\npressure 966.6 mb at 1000 UTC, suggesting a falling\r\ncentral pressure.  Based on these data, the intensity is increased\r\nto 75 kt.  It should be noted that the cloud pattern has some\r\ncharacteristics of a subtropical cyclone due to the cyclone's\r\ninteraction with the upper-level trough.\r\n\r\nThe GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central\r\nconvection for the next 48 hours or so, indicating that Nicole is\r\nlikely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics despite cooler\r\nair entraining into the circulation. After that time, the cyclone\r\nshould move over sea surface temperatures of 16 deg C or less that\r\nshould cause the central convection to dissipate. Based on this, the\r\nintensity forecast calls for Nicole to become post-tropical by 72\r\nhours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours. The new intensity\r\nforecast is adjusted upward for the first 12 hours based on the\r\ncurrent intensity, and after that it is an update of the previous\r\nforecast.  Overall, the forecast lies near the upper end of the\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nNicole appears to be slowing its forward motion, and the motion\r\nestimate is now 075/11.  A slow easterly motion is expected during\r\nthe next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is an area of weaker flow\r\nin the mid-latitude westerlies.  After that time, a large\r\nmid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should steer the\r\ncyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed.  The\r\nnew forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies\r\nnear the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nGuidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the\r\nforecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nSwells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east\r\ncoast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early\r\nnext week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole\r\nwill radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 39.0N  50.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 39.3N  48.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 39.4N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 39.8N  45.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 41.1N  44.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 47.5N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 56.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/1200Z 64.5N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":47,"Date":"2016-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016\r\n\r\nNicole is currently showing a hybrid structure.  On the larger\r\nscale, the system has the appearance of an extratropical low, with\r\ncold air advection occurring over the southern semicircle and a\r\ndeveloping frontal cloud band east through south of the center.\r\nHowever, the system has secluded an area of warm air near the\r\ncenter where a tropical cyclone wind and temperature structure\r\nexists. The earlier scatterometer overpass showed the radius of\r\nmaximum winds to be about 75 n mi, and the warm core is strong\r\nenough to produce hurricane-strength AMSU intensity estimates.\r\nBased on little change in the appearance of the cloud pattern since\r\nthe last advisory, the intensity is held at 75 kt.\r\n\r\nThe GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central\r\nconvection for the next 36-48 hours, indicating that Nicole is\r\nlikely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics.  After that\r\ntime, the cyclone should move over sea surface temperatures of 16\r\ndeg C or less that should cause the central convection to dissipate.\r\nBased on this, the intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become\r\npost-tropical by 72 hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours.\r\nThe latest dynamical model guidance forecasts the cyclone to be\r\nabsorbed by another extratropical low by 120 hours, and that is now\r\nreflected in the intensity forecast.  The new forecast is otherwise\r\nan update of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 075/10.  A slow easterly motion is\r\nexpected during the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is in an\r\narea of weaker flow in the mid-latitude westerlies.  After that\r\ntime, a large mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should\r\nsteer Nicole north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed.\r\nThe new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and\r\nlies near the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nGuidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the\r\nforecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nSwells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east\r\ncoast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early\r\nnext week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole\r\nwill radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 39.4N  49.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 39.5N  48.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 39.8N  46.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 40.6N  45.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 42.5N  43.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 50.0N  38.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 60.0N  34.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":48,"Date":"2016-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST SAT OCT 15 2016\r\n\r\nNicole appears to be trying to develop some inner-core convection\r\nwith cloud tops cooling near the center during the past several\r\nhours.  Although there is cold advection occurring on the back side\r\nof the cyclone, recent AMSU data confirm that Nicole has a\r\nwell-defined warm core.  CIMSS intensity estimates from the AMSU\r\ndata indicated that Nicole was still producing maximum winds\r\nbetween 68-77 kt, and the latest classification from TAFB increased\r\nfrom six hours ago.  Based on these data, the initial intensity\r\nremains 75 kt.\r\n\r\nGlobal model fields show that Nicole is likely to maintain its warm\r\ncore for another 48 hours.  Even though sea surface temperatures\r\nwill be decreasing from 24C to 20C during that time, upper-level\r\ntemperatures will also be cooling, which should keep the\r\nenvironment unstable enough for Nicole to generate convection\r\nwithin its core.  Therefore, only slow weakening is anticipated\r\nduring the next few days, and the NHC intensity forecast most\r\nclosely follows the GFS and ECMWF forecast intensities.  Nicole is\r\nexpected to lose its warm core and become extratropical by 72\r\nhours, and it should then be absorbed by another weather system by\r\n120 hours between Iceland and Greenland.\r\n\r\nNicole's center has turned eastward and slowed down with an initial\r\nmotion of 080/9 kt.  Nicole is cut off from the faster mid-latitude\r\nflow to its north, and it is therefore expected to move only slowly\r\neastward or northeastward during the next 36 hours.  After that\r\ntime, a shortwave trough moving across eastern Canada should cause\r\nNicole to accelerate toward the north-northeast and north between\r\n48-96 hours.  The updated NHC track forecast is close to the various\r\nconsensus models and not too different from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nNicole's initial tropical-storm-force wind radii have been expanded\r\nbased on a recent ASCAT-B pass.  Guidance from the NOAA Ocean\r\nPrediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nSwells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east\r\ncoast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early\r\nnext week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole\r\nwill radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 39.4N  48.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 39.4N  47.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 39.9N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 41.0N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 43.8N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 53.7N  36.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 63.0N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n120H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":49,"Date":"2016-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation has changed very little during the past\r\nseveral hours. The pattern consists of a convective band wrapping\r\naround the center or an eye-like feature. The initial intensity is\r\nkept at 75 kt. There is nothing new to report except that Nicole is\r\na resilient cyclone, and will probably continue as a hurricane for\r\nthe next 24 to 36 hours despite the shear and the cold waters. Both\r\nthe GFS and the ECMWF models are showing signs that by 48 hours,\r\nNicole will no longer have tropical characteristic, and by 72 hours,\r\nit will be absorbed by a much large extratropical cyclone. The NHC\r\nforecast follows the solutions of these two models.\r\n\r\nNicole is meandering eastward or 090 degrees at 5 kt. Since the\r\nhurricane is cut off from the faster mid-latitude flow to its north,\r\nlittle motion is anticipated during the next 24 hours. After that\r\ntime, an approaching trough should cause Nicole to accelerate and\r\nturn more to the northeast and north-northeast until it become\r\nabsorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in about 3 days or\r\nsooner.\r\n\r\nGuidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the\r\nforecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nSwells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east\r\ncoast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early\r\nnext week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole\r\nwill radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 39.2N  47.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 39.3N  46.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 40.2N  45.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 42.5N  43.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 46.5N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 56.6N  36.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":50,"Date":"2016-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016\r\n\r\nNicole appears to be maintaining its strength this morning. The\r\nsatellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly better organized\r\nthan several hours ago. A large ragged eye of the cyclone is still\r\nevident in visible satellite images, surrounded by patches of cold\r\ncloud tops.  The initial wind speed is held at 75 kt, which is a\r\nlittle higher than the latest Dvorak estimates. Although Nicole is\r\nover 24 deg C SSTs and is headed for even colder waters during the\r\nnext day or two, there should be enough instability for the\r\ncontinuation of some deep convection near the center of the cyclone.\r\nTherefore, only slow weakening is expected before Nicole completes\r\nthe transition to an extratropical cyclone in about two days when it\r\nis absorbed by an upper-level trough.\r\n\r\nNicole is moving slowly east-southeastward as the hurricane is now\r\nlargely cut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow.  A slow\r\nnortheastward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed\r\nby an acceleration to the north-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.\r\nThe expected turn and increase in forward speed are due to the\r\napproach of the aforementioned large upper-level trough that is\r\ncurrently located over eastern Canada. The track models are in\r\nrelatively good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is a little\r\nslower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the\r\nlatest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii were adjusted based on a 1230 UTC ASCAT-B\r\npass. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) was used\r\nfor the forecast wind radii.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas.  Recent\r\nwave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas\r\nexist near the hurricane.  In addition, swells from Nicole are\r\nspreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC\r\nand TAFB suggest that long-period swells will continue to radiate\r\noutward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next\r\nfew days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 39.1N  46.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 39.5N  46.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 41.0N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 43.8N  41.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 48.5N  38.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 58.6N  35.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":51,"Date":"2016-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  51\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016\r\n\r\nNicole's 70 nmi wide ragged eye remains distinct, surrounded by a\r\nnearly closed ring of convection consisting of cloud tops of -45C to\r\n-55C. However, the overall cloud pattern is beginning to look more\r\nlike an extratropical low pressure system than that of a tropical\r\ncyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered to 70 kt, which is\r\ncloser to the latest subjective and objective Dvorak intensity\r\nestimate of T4.0/65 kt from both TAFB and NHC.\r\n\r\nNicole appears to have finally made the much anticipated turn to the\r\nnortheast, and is now moving 045/08 kt. Nicole currently is trapped\r\nbetween two high-amplitude ridges -- one located offshore of eastern\r\nCanada and the other to the west of Europe. The latest 12Z model\r\nguidance remains in excellent agreement on this blocking ridge\r\npattern breaking down over the next few days as a strong shortwave\r\ntrough currently located over northeastern Canada moves quickly\r\neastward. The increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of the\r\ntrough should begin to accelerate Nicole northeastward tonight and\r\nMonday, and then turn the cyclone north-northeastward over the far\r\nNorth Atlantic on Tuesday. The track models are in very good\r\nagreement on this developing track scenario, so the new NHC forecast\r\ntrack is essentially just an extension of the previous advisory\r\ntrack, and lies close to a blend of the various consensus models and\r\ninput from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) at 48-72h.\r\n\r\nAlthough Nicole is currently located over marginal sea surface\r\ntemperatures of about 24 deg C, it is beneath a region of unusually\r\ncold upper-tropospheric temperatures, creating an unstable condition\r\nbarely sufficient to support convection in the inner-core region of\r\nthe cyclone. However, the latest SHIPS intensity guidance indicates\r\nthat SSTs will be cooling to 22C and less by 24 h, after which the\r\natmosphere is forecast to become too stable to produce convection.\r\nAs a result, Nicole is expected to become an extratropical low\r\nby 36 hours. However, the intensity forecast shows only slight\r\nweakening during the next 48 h due to the system receiving a shot of\r\nbaroclinic energy from the aforementioned shortwave trough. By 96 h,\r\nif not sooner, Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical low near the east coast of Greenland. Guidance from\r\nthe NOAA OPC was used for the forecast wind radii at 48 h and 72 h.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard associated with Nicole will be high seas.  Recent\r\nwave-height altimeter data indicate that a large area of 20-ft seas\r\nexist near the hurricane.  In addition, swells from Nicole are\r\nspreading far from the system, and High Seas Forecasts from OPC\r\nand TAFB indicate that long-period swells will continue to radiate\r\noutward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next\r\nfew days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 39.7N  45.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 40.5N  44.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 42.6N  42.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 46.3N  39.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 51.3N  37.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 59.6N  32.7W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":52,"Date":"2016-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST SUN OCT 16 2016\r\n\r\nCloud tops have continued to cool around Nicole's eye, and the eye\r\nitself has become a little more distinct during the past several\r\nhours.  AMSU data from 2029 UTC yielded a CIMSS intensity estimate\r\nof 71 kt, and since the convective pattern has improved since the\r\nlast advisory, it is assumed that the cyclone has not lost any\r\nstrength.  The maximum winds therefore remain 70 kt.\r\n\r\nGlobal models fields indicate that Nicole should maintain its deep\r\nwarm core for at least another 24 hours.  By 36 hours, however, the\r\ncyclone is likely to become attached to a nearby frontal zone to\r\nits west, at which point Nicole would become extratropical.\r\nNeither the global models nor the SHIPS and LGEM models show much\r\nweakening during the next couple of days, and Nicole is expected to\r\nmaintain hurricane intensity for the next 48 hours.  Some weakening\r\nis forecast by day 3 with Nicole moving over very cold water, and\r\nthen the cyclone is expected to be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical low by day 4 while it moves between Iceland and\r\nGreenland.  No changes were made to the updated NHC intensity\r\nforecast compared to the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nNicole took a jog toward the north since the last advisory, but the\r\nlonger-term motion is estimated to be 040/8 kt.  A shortwave trough\r\nmoving eastward across Quebec is expected to emerge off the coast\r\nof Atlantic Canada late tomorrow, with the preceding flow causing\r\nNicole to accelerate toward the northeast and then north-northeast\r\nby 36 hours.  A north-northeastward motion should continue up until\r\nthe time Nicole is absorbed by the larger extratropical low near\r\nGreenland.  The updated NHC track forecast lies near the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus, and it was nudged a bit west of the previous\r\nforecast primarily to account for the recent northward jog.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 40.5N  45.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 41.6N  44.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 44.3N  41.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 48.9N  39.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 53.6N  37.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 62.2N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":53,"Date":"2016-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  53\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016\r\n\r\nNicole continues to exhibit a tropical appearance on satellite\r\nimagery, with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding a large ragged\r\neye.  The current intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on recent\r\nscatterometer data, and this is also consistent with the latest\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Although not much weakening\r\nis anticipated during the next couple of days, the cyclone is now\r\nexpected to lose tropical characteristics in 24 hours since, by that\r\ntime, it should be over SSTs colder than 20 deg C.  Soon thereafter,\r\nthe system is forecast to become attached to a nearby frontal zone\r\nand make the transition into a vigorous extratropical cyclone.  By\r\n96 hours, global models show the low being absorbed by another large\r\nextratropical cyclone near Greenland.\r\n\r\nNicole continues to move northeastward at around 8 kt.  The system\r\nhas yet to get caught up in the stronger mid-latitude westerlies\r\nthat lie just to the north.  However, a shortwave trough moving\r\nthrough Atlantic Canada should cause Nicole to accelerate\r\nnortheastward soon.  As the trough amplifies, the cyclone is likely\r\nto continue to accelerate and turn north-northeastward to northward\r\nlater in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe 12-ft seas radii and predicted wind radii, as well as the\r\nposition and intensity forecasts are mainly based on analyses and\r\nforecasts from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 41.0N  45.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 42.5N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 46.0N  40.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 51.5N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 56.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 65.0N  32.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":54,"Date":"2016-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  54\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 AM AST MON OCT 17 2016\r\n\r\nNicole is still maintaining its status as a hurricane.  The latest\r\nsatellite images show a ragged eye feature with broken bands of\r\ndeep convection around the eye and to the west of the center.  The\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain 4.0/65 kt,\r\ntherefore, the initial intensity is held at that value.  Nicole\r\nwill likely become a post-tropical cyclone tonight or early Tuesday\r\nwhen it moves over SSTs colder than 20 deg C and begins to interact\r\nwith a frontal zone.  Little change in intensity is expected even\r\nafter post-tropical transition occurs, and Nicole is forecast to\r\nbecome an even larger cyclone over the north Atlantic during the\r\nnext couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving slowly northeastward at 8 kt as it remains\r\ncut off from the stronger mid-latitude flow.  A mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough currently over Atlantic Canada is expected to move eastward,\r\nwhich should cause Nicole to accelerate north-northeastward to\r\nnortheastward during the next couple of days.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one, and is in best agreement\r\nwith the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard associated with Nicole continues to be the large\r\narea of high seas.  Swells from Nicole will continue to affect much\r\nof the north Atlantic basin during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from\r\nNOAA's Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 41.4N  44.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 43.6N  42.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 48.2N  39.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 53.4N  37.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 57.5N  35.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Nicole","Adv":55,"Date":"2016-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  55\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough Nicole is still a hurricane with a large ragged eye, it is\r\nis steadily losing its appearance as a tropical cyclone in satellite\r\nimagery. During the past six hours, the cloud pattern has become\r\nelongated northeast-to-southwest and convection has weakened\r\nconsiderably in the eyewall with only a small patch of cloud tops\r\nto -50 deg C remaining in the southeastern quadrant. The Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB have been holding steady at\r\nT4.0/65 kt, which is the initial intensity used for this advisory.\r\nNicole is currently located over 21 deg C SSTs and the cyclone will\r\nbe moving over cooler waters of less than 18 deg C in 12 h, which\r\nshould extinguish any remaining instability and convection. As a\r\nresult, Nicole is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later\r\ntonight or Tuesday morning.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 040/22 kt. Nicole is getting picked\r\nup by an approaching strong mid-/upper-level shortwave trough. As\r\nthe amplifying trough digs to the southwest of Nicole, the hurricane\r\nis forecast to continue to accelerate toward the northeast tonight,\r\nfollowed by north-northeastward turn on Tuesday, which will take the\r\ncyclone over the cold waters of the far North Atlantic during the\r\nnext three days. Nicole is expected to be absorbed by a larger\r\nextratropical low off of the east coast of Greenland by 72 h. The\r\nNHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is in\r\nbest agreement with the GFS-ECMWF model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large\r\narea of high seas.  Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North\r\nAtlantic basin during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 42.7N  42.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 45.4N  40.2W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 51.0N  37.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 56.5N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 61.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nicole","Adv":56,"Date":"2016-10-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  56\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n1100 PM AST MON OCT 17 2016\r\n\r\nThe old adage about tropical cyclones transitioning to extratropical\r\nonce the latitude is larger than the longitude does not apply to\r\nNicole.  The system has been able to maintain a coherent inner core\r\nof deep convection, which wraps about two-thirds the way around its\r\ncenter.  This is, however, somewhat reduced from earlier today and\r\nthe Dvorak data-t numbers from TAFB and SAB have dropped. A just\r\narriving ASCAT-A scatterometer pass from 0019Z indicates that peak\r\nwinds are about 60 kt and this may be a bit generous. Thus Nicole\r\nhas weakened to a tropical storm.\r\n\r\nNicole's resilience as a tropical cyclone is likely due to it being\r\nembedded within very low vertical shear and in quite cold upper\r\ntropospheric temperatures, despite the SSTs dropping to near 20 deg\r\nC.  However, Nicole should soon transition to an extratropical\r\ncyclone, as frontal boundaries develop near the center of the system\r\nby tomorrow.  Even though it will become extratropical, it is\r\nanticipated that Nicole will remain a large and powerful system for\r\nthe next couple of days before being absorbed by a separate\r\nextratropical cyclone in about three days. The intensity forecast is\r\nslightly less than that from the previous advisory because of the\r\nlowered initial intensity and is based upon a deterministic global\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nNicole is moving toward the northeast at about 22 kt, as it is being\r\nadvected along in the deep layer southwesterly flow ahead of a\r\nshortwave trough over eastern Canada.  A 2019Z AMSU pass and the\r\nASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated that the surface center is\r\nsomewhat west of where the center appears to be from the infrared\r\nimagery.  Nicole should accelerate and turn toward the north by\r\ntomorrow.  This track forecast is similar to that from the previous\r\nadvisory and is based upon a blend of the deterministic and ensemble\r\nglobal models.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard associated with Nicole will continue to be the large\r\narea of high seas.  Swells from Nicole will affect much of the North\r\nAtlantic basin during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from\r\nthe NOAA Ocean Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 44.8N  41.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 48.3N  37.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 54.5N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 59.0N  34.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 65.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 72H  21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Nicole","Adv":57,"Date":"2016-10-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016\r\n500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016\r\n\r\nNicole is finally losing its tropical cyclone characteristics as it\r\nmerges with a frontal system over the cold waters of the North\r\nAtlantic.  The circulation is becoming elongated with the remaining\r\ndeep convection in a band well to the east of the center.  The\r\ninitial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on a combination of\r\nsatellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data.\r\nThe post-tropical cyclone is expected to complete extratropical\r\ntransition in the next 12 hours, the it should continue as a\r\nvigorous extratropical storm through 36 hours before it is absorbed\r\nby another extratropical low.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 030/27.  The cyclone should continue quickly\r\nnorth-northeastward on the east side on a deep layer trough over\r\nthe Labrador Sea until the cyclone dissipates.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard associated with the post-tropical cyclone will\r\ncontinue to be the large area of high seas.  Swells from the system\r\nwill affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple\r\nof days.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Nicole issued by the National\r\nHurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be\r\nfound in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,\r\nunder AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available\r\non the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 47.1N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 51.7N  36.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 57.0N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 62.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-11-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system located\r\nover the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized over\r\nthe past 12 hours, including the development of some banding\r\nfeatures. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft yesterday\r\nbetween 1900-2000 UTC indicated that the low had a well-defined\r\ncirculation center, along with flight-level winds of 38 kt and SFMR\r\nsurface winds of 32-34 kt in no-rain areas. Since that time, an\r\nintense convective burst with cloud tops of -88C developed near the\r\ncenter between 0400-0500 UTC, which likely helped to spin up the\r\ninner-core circulation a little more. In addition, ship C6VG7\r\nlocated 90-100 nmi southeast of the center has been reporting winds\r\nas high 38 kt at an elevation of 34 meters, which adjusts to a\r\n10-meter wind of 30-32 kt. Although cloud tops have warmed since\r\nthat earlier strong convective burst occurred, the overall\r\nconvective cloud pattern has improved since the recon flight\r\nyesterday. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system\r\nas a 30-kt depression, which could be conservative.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been meandering in the same general area for the\r\npast 12 hours or so, and little motion is expected today and early\r\nTuesday while the cyclone remains trapped within a blocking ridge\r\npattern. By 36-48 hours, an east-west oriented ridge is forecast by\r\nthe global models to develop across the Greater Antilles and the\r\nBahamas, which is expected to nudge the depression in a slow\r\nwestward direction for the remainder of the forecast period, with\r\nlandfall possibly occuring after 72 hours. The system is expected to\r\nmove across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific by\r\n120 hours as a remnant low. The NHC official forecast track lies\r\nclose to the various consensus model forecasts.\r\n\r\nMarginal environmental conditions are only expected to support slow\r\nstrengthening for the next 36 hours or so. After that, the moderate\r\nvertical wind shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to\r\ndecrease to less than 10 kt while mid-level humidity values increase\r\nto more than 70 percent. This should allow for the depression to\r\nstrengthen into a hurricane by 72 hours before landfall occurs. By\r\n96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be inland over Central America\r\nand undergoing rapid weakening due to the interaction with the\r\nmountainous terrain of that region. The intensity forecast closely\r\nfollows the consensus intensity model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 11.5N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 11.4N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 11.4N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 11.4N  79.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 11.3N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 11.3N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 11.3N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/0600Z 11.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-11-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming\r\nbetter organized, with some banding features over the northern and\r\nwestern portions of the circulation and small bursts of deep\r\nconvection near or over the estimated center.  The current\r\nintensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from\r\nTAFB, pending an Air Force reconnaissance mission into the\r\ncyclone this afternoon.  There is moderate south-southeasterly shear\r\nover the depression, and this should allow for only slow\r\nstrengthening over the next day or two.  In 72 hours or so, some\r\nrelaxation of the shear is forecast with an upper-level anticyclone\r\ndeveloping over the tropical cyclone, and the system is predicted to\r\nbecome a hurricane before landfall.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis the same as the previous one, and is close to the latest SHIPS\r\nmodel guidance.\r\n\r\nSatellite-derived center fixes indicate little motion since late\r\nyesterday.  The depression is currently located near a col in the\r\nmid-level flow, so steering currents are very weak at this time.\r\nGlobal model guidance shows a high developing to the north of the\r\nsystem in a few days, so a generally westward track is forecast.\r\nThe official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS\r\ntracks, with the former model being faster and farther south and\r\nthe latter being slower and farther north.  The new official\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous NHC forecast track.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of uncertainty as to whether the system will survive\r\nas a tropical cyclone while crossing Central America later in the\r\nforecast period.  The current thinking is that the interaction with\r\nland and increasing shear will reduce the system to a remnant low by\r\nthe time it reaches the east Pacific.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 11.5N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 11.4N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 11.3N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 11.2N  80.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 11.1N  81.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 11.1N  82.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 11.1N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/1200Z 11.0N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-11-21 18:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nThis is a special advisory to report that Tropical Depression\r\nSixteen has strengthened.  Visible satellite imagery shows that the\r\ninner core has become better defined over the past few hours, and\r\nASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 45\r\nkt.  Additional intensification is expected, and Otto could become a\r\nhurricane in 48 hours, or sooner.\r\n\r\nNo change has been made to the initial position or track forecast\r\nfrom the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1800Z 11.5N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 11.4N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 11.3N  79.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 11.2N  80.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 11.1N  81.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 11.1N  82.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 11.1N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/1200Z 11.0N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-11-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nSince the strengthening episode this morning, visible and microwave\r\nsatellite imagery shows that Otto has not become much better\r\norganized.  Maintenance issues have caused the cancellation of\r\nthis afternoon's aerial reconnaissance mission.  The initial\r\nintensity estimate is 45 kt based on data from an earlier\r\nscatterometer overpass, and above the latest Dvorak estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  The upper-level outflow is restricted over the\r\nsoutheastern quadrant of the circulation, probably due to continued\r\nsouth-southeasterly vertical shear.  Strengthening to a hurricane\r\nseems likely, however, and the official intensity forecast is close\r\nto the model consensus.  There remains a lot of uncertainty as to\r\nwhether Otto will survive crossing Central America.  The official\r\nforecast shows the system as a remnant low over the east Pacific, as\r\nsuggested by the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met. office model runs.\r\n\r\nThere has been little movement of the tropical cyclone today, while\r\nOtto remains in an environment of weak steering currents.  The\r\nglobal models show a mid-level high pressure area gradually building\r\nto the north of the storm over the next several days.  This should\r\ncause Otto to begin to move slowly westward within 48 hours, with a\r\ncontinued westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed in the\r\nlatter part of the period.  The official track forecast is close to\r\na consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 11.3N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 11.1N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 11.1N  79.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 11.1N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 11.1N  81.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 11.2N  83.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 11.2N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1800Z 11.2N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-11-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to burst over the low-level center of\r\nOtto.  A 2329 UTC WindSat microwave overpass shows that the\r\ninner-core structure of the small tropical cyclone has become\r\nbetter organized with a low-level ring feature now evident.\r\nDvorak data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have increased to 3.0\r\nand 3.5, respectively, and objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS are\r\n3.2. These data support an initial wind speed of 50 kt, which\r\ncould be somewhat conservative.\r\n\r\nThe upper-level outflow remains well established over the western\r\nand northern portions of the circulation but it remains restricted\r\nto the southeast due to southeasterly shear of 15 to 20 kt.  The\r\nshear is forecast to abate a little during the next couple of days\r\nwhile Otto traverses SSTs of around 29C.  These conditions favor\r\nintensification and the NHC forecast is near a consensus of the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM models, and brings Otto to hurricane strength within\r\n36 hours.  Although the NHC forecast does not indicate strengthening\r\nbetween 48 and 72 hours, Otto could become a little stronger after\r\n48 hours and before it moves inland over Central America in about\r\n3 days. After that time, uncertainty remains as to whether the\r\ntropical cyclone will survive its crossing of Central America. The\r\nNHC forecast continues to show the system as a remnant low over the\r\neastern Pacific, which is supported by most of the global models.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes from the microwave imagery indicate that Otto has\r\nbeen drifting southward this evening.  The cyclone is not expected\r\nto move much overnight while it remains within an area of weak\r\nsteering currents.  On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to\r\nbegin building to the north of the storm and Otto is forecast to\r\nstart moving slowly westward.  The ridge is expected to remain in\r\nplace during the remainder of the week and Otto should continue to\r\nmove generally westward at a slightly faster pace.  The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between\r\nthe latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, which is also near the most\r\nrecent GFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 10.9N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 10.8N  79.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 10.9N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 11.1N  80.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 11.3N  81.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 11.3N  84.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 11.3N  87.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z 10.8N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-11-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has continued to burst near the low-level center of\r\nOtto tonight.  A pair of ASCAT passes between 02Z and 03Z showed\r\npeak winds of around 45 kt, which support maintaining the intensity\r\nat 50 kt for this advisory.  This intensity estimate is also\r\nrepresents a blend of the 06Z subjective Dvorak estimates of 45 kt\r\nand the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 53 kt.  An Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Otto later\r\nthis morning.\r\n\r\nOtto's outflow pattern remains restricted south and southeast of the\r\ncenter, consistent with about 20 kt of shear analyzed over the\r\ncyclone by the SHIPS model analysis and UW-CIMSS.  This shear is\r\nforecast to persist for the next 24 h or so and then abate somewhat\r\nby 36 hours.  Given this, some gradual strengthening is expected\r\nwhile Otto moves over waters of around 29C, and the NHC forecast\r\nshows Otto becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 h.  The official\r\nforecast through 48 h is a little above the intensity consensus and\r\nclose to the latest FSU Superensemble and the NOAA HFIP consensus\r\naid HCCA.  After that time, land interaction should result in\r\nweakening and much of the guidance continues to suggest that Otto\r\nwill weaken to a remnant low after it emerges into the eastern\r\nPacific, and this is still reflected in the official forecast.  It\r\nis worth noting, however, that the ECMWF maintains Otto as a\r\nstronger cyclone over the Pacific through day 5.\r\n\r\nAfter drifting south-southeastward overnight, Otto is estimated to\r\nbe stationary.  Little net motion is expected today while the\r\ntropical cyclone is caught in a region of weak steering currents. By\r\n24 hours, a mid-level ridge will begin to build north of Otto, which\r\nshould impart a west-northwestward motion and then a westward turn\r\nat a slightly faster forward speed by 48 h as the ridge amplifies.\r\nThis synoptic pattern should steer Otto toward the coast of Central\r\nAmerica in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, a further westward\r\nacceleration is expected as the mid-level ridge builds westward.\r\nThe new NHC track forecast is faster than the previous one at 48\r\nhours and beyond and has been adjusted southward at days 3-5.  The\r\nnew official forecast lies between HCCA and the FSU Superensemble\r\nthrough 48 hours and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF after\r\nthat time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 10.7N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 10.7N  79.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 10.9N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 11.2N  80.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 11.2N  82.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 11.0N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 10.5N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0600Z 10.0N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-11-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nOtto is close to becoming a hurricane. Satellite images indicate\r\nthat the cloud pattern has become better organized, with a central\r\ndense overcast and broad band feature over the western semicircle\r\nevident.  The past Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight\r\nrecorded maximum flight-level winds of 65 kt, with SFMR winds of\r\nabout 60 kt.  Thus, the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt\r\nfor this advisory.\r\n\r\nWeak-to-moderate southeasterly shear is expected near Otto for the\r\nnext couple of days while the tropical cyclone moves over warm\r\nwater.  These conditions should allow Otto to continue to\r\nstrengthen, and almost all of the guidance has Otto as a hurricane\r\nbefore making a central American landfall.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is raised from the previous one, and lies between the\r\nintensity consensus and the HWRF model.  Land interaction will\r\ncause weakening after landfall, but a stronger Otto is less likely\r\nto dissipate as quickly over the eastern Pacific.  Most of the\r\nguidance now keeps the storm going throughout the period, so the\r\nremnant low designation has been changed to a tropical cyclone\r\nstatus over the eastern Pacific.\r\n\r\nOtto really isn't moving much, with recon fixes showing little net\r\nmotion during the morning hours.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to\r\nbuild over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should\r\ncause Otto to move slowly westward.  As the ridge builds, the\r\nforecast speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves\r\nacross the eastern Pacific.  The guidance continues to trend\r\nsouthward, and the official forecast is shifted in that direction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 10.4N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 10.4N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 10.6N  80.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 10.8N  81.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 10.8N  82.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 10.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 10.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z  9.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-11-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Otto is continuing to strengthen.\r\nThe overall satellite pattern has become more symmetric, with a\r\nlarge mass of intense convection near the center. Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and the wind speed is set to 65\r\nkt, which makes Otto the seventh hurricane of the season.  Otto\r\nis the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea,\r\neclipsing the mark of Martha (1969) by about a day.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for continued\r\nstrengthening, with warm water and weak-to-moderate southeasterly\r\nshear during the next couple of days.  Most of the guidance models\r\nshow Otto making landfall as a category 1 hurricane on Thursday and\r\nso does the official forecast.  Stronger shear, as well as land\r\ninteraction over central America, will probably prevent Otto from\r\nrestrengthening over the eastern Pacific.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that Otto has been drifting westward during\r\nthe day.  A mid-level ridge is still forecast to build over the\r\nnorthwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should cause Otto to\r\nmove slowly to the west or west-northwest.  As the ridge builds, the\r\nforward speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves\r\nacross the eastern Pacific and gradually loses latitude in that\r\nbasin.  The most notable change is that the guidance has come into\r\nbetter agreement on the track, although there are still some\r\nsignificant speed differences.  Overall, the guidance envelope has\r\nshifted a bit to the north and is faster, and the official forecast\r\nfollows that trend.\r\n\r\nA hurricane warning will likely be required tonight or early\r\ntomorrow for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 10.5N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 10.6N  80.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 10.9N  81.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 11.0N  82.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 11.0N  83.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 10.4N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  26/1800Z  9.8N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z  9.5N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake/Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-11-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and\r\nsatellite imagery indicate that the intensification of Otto has\r\nstopped since the last advisory.  The aircraft reported a central\r\npressure near 988 mb with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting, at\r\nbest, an intensity of 65 kt.  In addition, satellite imagery shows a\r\ndecrease in the coverage of the associated convection.  The\r\narrested development might be due to dry air entrainment in the\r\neastern semicircle as suggested by water vapor imagery and recent\r\nmicrowave overpasses.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/3.  A mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge building over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and\r\nsoutheastern Mexico should steer Otto generally westward to\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, which would bring the\r\ncenter inland over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica during\r\nthat time.  After 48 hours, the dynamical models forecast the ridge\r\nto build westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean and steer Otto\r\nwestward or west-southwestward to the south of El Salvador,\r\nGuatemala, and eastern Mexico.  The forecast guidance is in good\r\nagreement with the direction of the track, but there remains some\r\nspread in the forward speed.  The new forecast track is again a\r\nlittle to the north and a little faster than the previous track,\r\nand it lies near the center of forecast guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nIt is unclear how long the current arrested development will\r\ncontinue, as most of the intensity guidance forecasts strengthening\r\nbefore landfall.  The new intensity forecast is based on the\r\npremise that intensification should resume after 12 hours and\r\ncontinue until landfall, with Otto forecast to make landfall as a\r\ncategory 1 hurricane.  The cyclone should weaken significantly\r\nwhile crossing Central America, and as shown in the previous\r\nforecast strong shear should prevent re-intensification over the\r\nPacific.\r\n\r\nThe latest forecast track and wind radii require hurricane warnings\r\nfor portions of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 10.7N  79.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 10.8N  80.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 11.1N  81.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 11.2N  83.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 11.1N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 10.5N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 10.0N  93.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 10.0N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-11-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Otto has not changed much overnight,\r\nas deep convection continues to burst near the estimated center\r\nposition in a small ragged CDO pattern.  The latest Dvorak estimates\r\nare T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that will be the intensity\r\nfor this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nis already en route to investigate Otto later this morning.\r\n\r\nVertical shear, currently analyzed at 15-20 kt, should lessen a\r\nlittle bit in the next 12 to 24 h, but given the ragged nature of\r\nthe system right now, only modest strengthening is expected before\r\nlandfall.  Weakening is then forecast through 48 hours while the\r\ncenter moves across Central America.  Once Otto reaches the eastern\r\nPacific, gradual weakening is expected to continue due to increasing\r\nshear and a drier atmospheric environment.  In fact, the 00Z GFS\r\nand UKMET model runs both show the circulation of Otto dissipating\r\nin 4-5 days, and the NHC forecast now shows a remnant low by the end\r\nof the period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the\r\nSHIPS model through 72 hours and follows the weakening trend of the\r\nglobal models after that time.\r\n\r\nOtto is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion\r\nestimate of 290/04, although it has been difficult to pinpoint the\r\ncenter overnight.  The mid-level ridge currently centered north of\r\nOtto will build westward and amplify during the forecast period.\r\nAs a result, Otto should turn westward and accelerate in the short\r\nterm, bringing the center to the coast in about 36 hours.  Later in\r\nthe period, a motion south of due west is indicated as the mid-level\r\nridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific.  The latest official\r\nforecast is slightly north of and slower than the previous one\r\nthrough landfall, and then has been adjusted southward and faster\r\nlate in the period.  The new NHC track is closest to the FSU\r\nSuperensemble through 72 hours and is near a blend of the ECMWF\r\nand GFS after that time.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches have been\r\nissued for portions of the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa\r\nRica.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 10.9N  80.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 11.1N  81.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 11.2N  82.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 11.3N  83.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 11.0N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 10.0N  91.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z  9.5N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 10.0N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-11-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nOtto has lost some organization since yesterday.  The last Air\r\nForce Reserve reconnaissance mission reported that the eyewall has\r\ndissipated, along with a 6-mb rise in pressure.  Still, the maximum\r\n700-mb flight-level winds were 68 kt, with SFMR winds of about 50\r\nkt.  The initial intensity is conservatively reduced to 60 kt for\r\nthis advisory.\r\n\r\nIt appears that the southeasterly shear has been a little stronger\r\nthan forecast yesterday, which has allowed some drier air to mix\r\ninto the cyclone.  This is evident in the inner-core data from the\r\nAir Force mission, which showed rather low dewpoints at 700 mb.  The\r\nglobal models are suggesting the shear will decrease before\r\nlandfall, and Otto should be moving over warmer waters later today\r\nthat have not be subjected to any storm-forced upwelling.  These\r\nfactors suggest some restrengthening is possible overnight and\r\nThursday, which is consistent with the bulk of the guidance models.\r\nStronger shear over the eastern Pacific is expected to cause gradual\r\nweakening of Otto in that basin, with remnant low status likely by\r\nday 5.  The official intensity forecast has been reduced somewhat\r\nfrom the last one but still calls for Otto to be a hurricane at\r\nlandfall.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes show that Otto continues to move toward the\r\nwest-northwest at 4 kt.  A building mid-level ridge to the north of\r\nOtto should cause the tropical cyclone to turn westward and\r\naccelerate tonight.  Late in the period, a motion south of due west\r\nis indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern\r\nPacific.  Model guidance is tightly clustered on this solution, and\r\nthe latest official forecast is very close to the previous one.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  80.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 11.2N  81.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 11.3N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 11.2N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 10.8N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 10.0N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z  9.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 10.0N 102.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-11-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nThere has not been much overall change to the Otto's satellite\r\npresentation today.  While the convection temporarily weakened\r\nthis morning, thunderstorm activity has rebuilt near the center\r\nduring the afternoon.  Satellite intensity estimates range from 55\r\nto 65 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt.  An Air Force\r\nReserve Reconnaissance aircraft should be in Otto this evening to\r\nobtain a better estimate.\r\n\r\nThe GFS and the ECMWF models continue to insist that shear near Otto\r\nshould decrease this evening and tomorrow due to the nearby\r\nupper-level flow changing to a more easterly direction. Thus Otto\r\nstill has the chance to become a hurricane again before landfall on\r\nThursday, and the official forecast reflects this scenario.  Otto\r\nshould abruptly weaken after landfall, with a more gradual weakening\r\nanticipated over the eastern Pacific due to increasing easterly\r\nshear. The intensity guidance is showing a slower demise of Otto at\r\nlong range, so the intensity forecast has been boosted slightly from\r\nthe previous one at days 3 and 4.\r\n\r\nOtto is finally on the move, with the latest satellite fixes\r\nindicating a westward motion at about 6 kt.  A strengthening\r\nmid-level ridge to the north of Otto should force the storm to move\r\na bit faster to the west on Thursday, with an even faster\r\nsouth-of-west motion forecast over the weekend.  Very few changes\r\nwere required to the track prediction on this advisory since the\r\nmodel guidance remains in very good agreement.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 11.2N  81.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 11.3N  82.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 11.2N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 10.9N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 10.5N  88.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  26/1800Z  9.5N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z  9.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 10.5N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-11-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nA strong convective burst occurred near the center of Otto as an\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the\r\ncyclone near 0000 UTC.  This resulted in the aircraft reporting\r\ncentral pressures near 977-979 mb, 850-mb flight-level winds in\r\nexcess of 100 kt, and dropsondes supporting surface winds of at\r\nleast 80 kt. However, these winds may have been associated with a\r\ntransient mesocyclone in the strong convection, as data from a\r\nsubsequent penetration showed a central pressure near 981 mb and\r\nlower winds. The initial intensity is now 75 kt based on 700-mb\r\nflight-level winds from the last aircraft pass, and there is a\r\nlarger than normal uncertainty about this value.\r\n\r\nConditions appear favorable for additional strengthening before the\r\nhurricane makes landfall over Central America on Thursday, and the\r\nintensity forecast shows modest strengthening for the first 12\r\nhours. Otto should weaken significantly while crossing southern\r\nNicaragua and northern Costa Rica, and it is expected to emerge into\r\nthe Pacific as a tropical storm between 24 and 36 hours.  Strong\r\neasterly vertical shear should prevent re-intensification, and the\r\nnew intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in\r\nshowing a slow decay to a remnant low by 120 hours.  However, it\r\nshould be noted that the Pacific portion of the intensity forecast\r\nlies near the low end of the intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nOtto is moving a little faster with the initial motion now 275/8.\r\nThe hurricane should make landfall over southern Nicaragua or\r\nnorthern Costa Rica sometime on Thursday.  After landfall, a strong\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the cyclone\r\nwestward to west-southwestward through 96 hours.  Near the end of\r\nthe forecast period, Otto or its remnants should approach the\r\nwestern end of the ridge and turn west-northwestward. The track\r\nguidance remains in good agreement, and the new forecast track is a\r\nslightly faster version of the previous track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 11.2N  82.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 11.2N  83.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 10.9N  85.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 10.5N  87.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 10.0N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z  9.5N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z  9.5N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-11-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nOtto continues to produce an area of deep convection over the\r\ncenter, but it is difficult to tell if there have been any\r\nstructural changes to the cyclone without microwave or aircraft data\r\novernight. Dvorak estimates at 06Z were T4.5/77 kt from SAB and\r\nT4.0/65 kt from TAFB, with the 06Z UW-CIMSS ADT estimate at 72 kt.\r\nThe initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory based on\r\nthe higher satellite estimates and continuity. An Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Otto later this morning.\r\n\r\nThere is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before\r\nOtto makes landfall in about 12 hours. After landfall, quick\r\nweakening is expected while the center moves across Central America,\r\nand Otto is expected to emerge into the eastern Pacific by 24 h as a\r\ntropical storm. Gradual weakening is forecast after that time, due\r\nto moderate to strong vertical shear, and this weakening trend is\r\nalso shown in most of the global model guidance. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the low\r\nend of the TC intensity guidance late in the period. This forecast\r\nends up closest to the FSU Superensemble by day 5, and shows Otto as\r\na remnant low at that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/07, as Otto is under the steering\r\ninfluence of a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba and the Bahamas.\r\nAs as mid/upper-level trough lifts out of the Gulf of Mexico, the\r\nridge will build westward and amplify during the next 3-4 days. This\r\npattern should result in an increase in forward speed and a motion\r\nsomewhat south of due west for the next 72 hours. By the end of the\r\nperiod, Otto or its remnant low should turn west-northwestward as it\r\nrounds the western side of the weakening ridge. While there is\r\ngeneral agreement on this scenario, there remains some spread in the\r\ntrack guidance. In particular, the latest ECMWF solution has shifted\r\nnorth and is slower than the rest of the guidance, especially\r\ncompared to the GFS, which is faster and farther south. The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is largely an update of the previous one but trends a\r\nlittle faster following the latest consensus. This track is close to\r\nthe ECMWF/GFS blend at days 3 through 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 11.2N  82.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 11.1N  83.9W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 10.6N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 10.2N  88.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z  9.8N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z  9.5N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 10.0N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 11.5N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-11-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of\r\nOtto around 1200 UTC this morning and indicated that the\r\nhurricane was intensifying. The estimated central pressure dropped\r\nto 976 mb and the flight-level wind at 700 mb peaked at 108 kt while\r\nthe SFMR winds reached 90 kt. Since that time, satellite imagery\r\nshowed that the hurricane cloud pattern has become better organized\r\nwith a distinct eye in both convectional and microwave imagery, and\r\nthe Data-T numbers reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,\r\nthe initial intensity has been set at 95 kt.\r\n\r\nThere is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before\r\nOtto makes landfall during the next several hours. However,\r\nweakening should begin after the eye moves farther inland\r\nacross Central America. Otto is expected to emerge over the\r\neastern Pacific in about 12 to 24 h as a tropical storm. Otto should\r\ncontinue to weaken as it moves over the eastern pacific given that\r\nstrong shear is forecast to prevail in that region, and the cyclone\r\nshould become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nSatellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Otto is moving\r\ntoward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt.  The hurricane is\r\ntrapped within easterly flow associated with a strong high\r\npressure to the north, and since this high is forecast to persist,\r\nthe hurricane should continue on a general west to west-southwest\r\ntrack for the next 3 days. After that time, a much weaker Otto\r\nshould turn to the west-northwest around the western edge of\r\nthe high. The track guidance is very consistent with this\r\nscenario and there is no need to deviate from the previous NHC\r\nforecast. The forecast track continues to be very close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nNHC thanks the crew of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for\r\nflying and providing valuable data on Thanksgiving Day.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 11.0N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 10.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 10.3N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  26/0000Z  9.8N  89.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z  9.5N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z  9.0N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 10.0N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-11-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and radar data from Nicaragua indicate that\r\nHurricane Otto made landfall at approximately 1800 UTC today along\r\nthe extreme southern coast of Nicaragua, just north of the town\r\nof San Juan de Nicaragua. The peak intensity at the time of landfall\r\nwas estimated to be at least 95 kt and the central pressure was\r\nestimated at 975 mb. This makes Otto the southernmost landfalling\r\nhurricane in Central America on record.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. Otto is located inland\r\nover extreme southern Nicaragua, just north of the border with Costa\r\nRica. Easterly steering flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge\r\nlocated over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Mexico is\r\nexpected to keep Otto or its remnants moving in a westward to\r\nwest-southwestward direction throughout the forecast period. The\r\nglobal and regional models are in good agreement on this track\r\nscenario, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the\r\nprevious forecast track, mainly due to the more northward initial\r\nposition of Otto.\r\n\r\nOtto is forecast to weaken rapidly while the hurricane moves farther\r\ninland over the rough terrain of southern Nicaragua and northern\r\nCosta Rica tonight. Otto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm\r\nby the time it emerges over the eastern North Pacific in about 12 h,\r\nand maintain that intensity during the 24-96 hour period. The ECMWF,\r\nUKMET, and Canadian models continue to weaken Otto throughout the\r\nforecast period, especially after 48 hours when the cyclone is\r\nforecast to interact with a dry Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event.\r\nErosion of the inner-core convection and wind field is expected from\r\nthis negative interaction, resulting in dissipation of Otto by\r\n48-72 h. In contrast, the GFS model keeps the gap-wind event away\r\nfrom Otto and strengthens the cyclone back to hurricane status by\r\n48 h and beyond. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast will\r\nremain similar to the previous advisory, and more closely follows\r\nthe Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which is well below all of the\r\nother intensity forecast models.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Otto is going to be torrential rainfall,\r\nwhich will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides. Reports of\r\nmudslides across northern Costa Rica have already been received from\r\namateur radio operators in that area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 11.0N  84.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 10.7N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 10.2N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z  9.8N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z  9.5N  93.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z  9.4N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 10.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 12.1N 105.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-11-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n900 PM CST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nRadar data from Las Nubes, Nicaragua, indicate that the core of Otto\r\nhas remained well organized since landfall, with an eye still\r\ndiscernible.  On the other hand, the convective clouds associated\r\nwith the cyclone have warmed considerably since landfall.  There\r\nhave been no surface observations from the core, so the initial\r\nintensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 60 kt based on the\r\ndecay in the satellite appearance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/11.  Otto is located over\r\nnorthwestern Costa Rica and should emerge into the Pacific during\r\nthe next few hours.  Easterly steering flow on the south side of a\r\ndeep-layer ridge located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and\r\nsouthern Mexico is expected to keep Otto moving in a westward to\r\nwest-southwestward direction for the next 72 hours or so.  After\r\nthat time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to reach the\r\nend of the ridge and turn northwestward.  The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous track through 72 hours, then is shifted a\r\nlittle to the left of the track based on a shift in the consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nDuring the first 36 hours over the Pacific, Otto is likely to be\r\nover warm sea surface temperatures in an environment of moderate to\r\nstrong easterly vertical wind shear.  The intensity forecast during\r\nthis time will show a slow weakening in agreement with the previous\r\nforecast due to the uncertainties in the strength of the shear.\r\nHowever, given the level of organization it would not be surprising\r\nif some intensification occurred.  Around 48 hours, the cyclone is\r\nlikely to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures which should\r\ncause a faster weakening.  From 72-120 hours, Otto is expected to\r\nmove over warmer water with decreasing shear at the same time it\r\nencounters a much drier air mass.  The intensity forecast uses the\r\npremise that the dry air will cause the system to decay and thus\r\ncalls for Otto to be a remnant low by 120 hours.  It should be\r\nnoted, though, the the intensity forecast after 48 hours remains\r\nnear the lower edge of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Otto will continue to be torrential\r\nrainfall, which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides.\r\n\r\nSince Otto has maintained itself as a tropical cyclone all the way\r\nacross the land mass of Central America, based on National Weather\r\nService and World Meteorological Organization protocols, it will\r\nretain the name Otto when it moves over the eastern Pacific in a few\r\nhours. Product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers\r\nbeginning with the next complete advisory at 0900 UTC. The\r\nintermediate advisory at 0600 UTC will be issued under an Atlantic\r\nheader.  The ATCF identifier will change from AL162016 to EP222016\r\nat 0900 UTC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 10.9N  85.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 10.5N  87.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 10.0N  90.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z  9.6N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z  9.4N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z  9.5N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 11.0N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-11-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nCorrected for Central Standard Time instead of Central Daylight\r\nTime in product header.\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Otto is rather ragged this morning after the\r\ncirculation moved offshore of Central America. Shortwave infrared\r\nimagery suggests that there may now be some tilt to the circulation,\r\nwith the low-level center possibly located south of the mid-level\r\ncenter. However, this is quite uncertain given the lack of microwave\r\nimagery overnight. Based on this apparent decrease in organization,\r\nthe initial intensity is set to 50 kt, a little below the latest\r\nDvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is problematic. Most of the guidance suggests\r\nthat Otto will maintain its current intensity for the next 48 hours\r\nor so while the cyclone moves over SSTs of 28-29C but with\r\ncontinued southeasterly shear of 15-20 kt. Through this time the\r\nNHC intensity forecast is near or a bit below the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus. By day 3, the shear begins to decrease, but the\r\natmosphere dries out as Otto interacts with outflow from a Gulf of\r\nTehuantepec gap wind event. The global models show Otto weakening\r\nlate in the period, and that trend is reflected in the official\r\nforecast, which continues to show Otto becoming a remnant low at day\r\n5. However, given the uncertainty in the current structure of Otto\r\nand the interplay between several competing environmental factors\r\nduring the forecast period, confidence in the intensity forecast is\r\nlower than usual.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 265/12. I\r\nshifted the initial position a little to the south to account for\r\nthe possible tilt in the circulation mentioned above. This resulted\r\nin a southward shift of the track guidance envelope and the NHC\r\nforecast even though the synoptic reasoning has not changed. An\r\namplifying mid-level ridge will steer Otto south of due west at\r\naround 15 kt for the next 48 hours. Then, as the ridge weakens late\r\nin the period, a slowing forward speed and gradual poleward turn are\r\nexpected. The new NHC track is close to the latest multi-model\r\nconsensus, but lies north of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 10.5N  86.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 10.1N  88.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z  9.5N  91.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z  9.2N  94.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z  9.0N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z  9.3N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 10.5N 106.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 12.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-11-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n900 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave and conventional satellite imagery shows that Otto's\r\ncloud pattern is a little better organized with a mid-level eye and\r\nvery deep convection surrounding the center.  Estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB are 3.5 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the\r\ninitial intensity is set at 55 kt. The intensity forecast continues\r\nto be uncertain. While global models show a gradual decay of the\r\ncyclone, other intensity guidance show a steady state or even\r\nslight intensification.  The shear is a little bit strong for\r\nsignificant intensification primarily during the next 48 to 72\r\nhours. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease, but the\r\nenvironment is forecast to dry out. The NHC forecast follows\r\nin general the intensity consensus during the first few days, and\r\nthen calls for a weakening trend by the end of the forecast period\r\nfollowing the solution of the global models and the previous NHC\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nOtto is moving toward the west or 265 degrees at 14 kt within the\r\neasterly flow associated with a strong mid-level high over Mexico.\r\nThis steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays, so a general west or even west-southwest track is anticipated.\r\nBy the end of the forecast period, Otto should be located on the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the high and should then begin to turn to the\r\nnorthwest and north. In contrast with the intensity guidance, the\r\ntrack models are in good agreement, increasing the confidence in\r\nthe track forecast.  The NHC forecast follows very closely the\r\nmultimodel consensus and is basically in the middle of the tight\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 10.3N  88.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 10.0N  90.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z  9.5N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z  9.3N  96.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z  9.2N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z  9.7N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 11.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 13.0N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-11-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe shear has increased over the cyclone and now the center is\r\nlocated on the eastern edge of the weakening convection. However,\r\nthe circulation is still vigorous with cyclonically curved bands\r\nover the western semicircle. Given that the cloud pattern has become\r\nless organized, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is uncertain. Global models continue to\r\ngradually damp out the cyclone while the statistical guidance keeps\r\nthe cyclone with little change in wind speed. Otto will remain\r\nembedded within easterly shear and a dry environment, and since\r\nthe intensity consensus is now trending toward a weaker cyclone, the\r\nNHC forecast calls for gradual weakening.\r\n\r\nAs anticipated, Otto is moving south of due west or 260 degrees at\r\nabout 14 kt. The cyclone continues to be south of a strong mid-level\r\nridge over Mexico, and this steering pattern will force Otto to\r\nmove on a general west-southwest to west track for the next 3 days.\r\nAfter that time, Otto will be located on the southwestern edge of\r\nthe high, and it should then begin to turn to the northwest and\r\nnorth with a decrease in forward speed.  The track models are in\r\ngood agreement with this solution, and the confidence in the track\r\nforecast is high. The NHC forecast is just to the north of the\r\nmultimodel consensus and on the northern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope. This is not a significant change from the previous NHC\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z  9.9N  89.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z  9.5N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z  9.0N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z  9.0N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z  9.0N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z  9.5N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 11.0N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 12.5N 108.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-11-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n900 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nOtto is showing the effects of 20-25 kt of easterly vertical wind\r\nshear, as the center is located near the eastern edge of the main\r\nconvective area.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nremain 55 kt, and there is a recent estimate of 47 kt from the\r\nCIMSS satellite consensus technique.  Based on these data, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of negative environmental factors in the intensity\r\nforecast.  In the first 12-24 hours, these include moderate to\r\nstrong shear and abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery near\r\nOtto.  At 24-36 hours, the cyclone is likely to move across an area\r\nof cooler sea surface temperatures.  Finally, from 72-120 hours Otto\r\nor its remnants should encounter more dry air and upper-level\r\nconvergent flow.  Given these factors, it is not a surprise that the\r\nglobal models forecast Otto to meet a quick demise.  On the other\r\nhand, the SHIPS and LGEM models forecast a slower decay and suggest\r\nOtto could still be a tropical cyclone at 120 hours.  The new\r\nintensity forecast will lean a little more toward the global models\r\nand show lower intensities than the previous forecast, with the\r\ncyclone forecast to weaken to a depression at 96 hours and to a\r\nremnant low at 120 hours.  However, if the global models are right\r\nboth of these events could occur earlier.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 255/14.  The cyclone continues to be south of\r\na strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico, and this steering pattern\r\nwill force Otto to move on a general west-southwestward to westward\r\ntrack for the next 2-3 days.  After that time, Otto or its remnants\r\nwill be located near the southwestern edge of the ridge, which\r\nshould result in a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in\r\nforward speed.  The track guidance remains in good agreement with\r\nthis scenario, although there is some divergence in how sharply the\r\nsystem will turn northward at 120 hours.  The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous track through 96 hours, then it lies between\r\nthe previous track to the west and the consensus models to the east\r\nat 120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z  9.7N  90.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z  9.2N  92.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z  8.9N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z  8.8N  98.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z  8.8N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 10.0N 106.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 11.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 13.0N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-11-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016\r\n\r\nEasterly vertical shear of around 20 kt continues to take a toll on\r\nOtto, with the low-level center partly exposed to the east of the\r\nconvective canopy. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for\r\nthis advisory, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from\r\nSAB.\r\n\r\nThe shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with\r\nthe cyclone encountering a progressively drier environment. As a\r\nresult, all of the global models show Otto dissipating in the next\r\n2-3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little\r\nlower, and is below most of the TC intensity guidance given the\r\nglobal model trends. Remnant low status is shown in 4 days with\r\ndissipation forecast at day 5, but I would not be surprised if\r\nboth of these occurred sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 260/16. A fast westward to west-\r\nsouthwestward motion is expected for the next 24 to 36 hours, as\r\nOtto is steered by an expansive mid-level ridge to the north. The\r\nridge will weaken after 48 hours, which should result in Otto (if it\r\nstill exists) turning west-northwestward and then northwestward\r\nprior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted\r\nsouth of the previous one, following the trend of much of the\r\nguidance, but still lies north of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z  9.2N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z  8.7N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z  8.3N  97.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z  8.1N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z  8.4N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z  9.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-11-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n900 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past\r\nseveral hours and it appears that the system is degenerating in a\r\ntrough of low pressure. It is very difficult to ascertain if there\r\nis a circulation by inspecting the conventional satellite imagery\r\nor even earlier microwave data. Based on continuity and recent\r\nDvorak estimates, the initial intensity is estimated generously at\r\n40 kt.  Given the prevailing strong shear and the current trend,\r\nadditional weakening is forecast, and Otto is anticipated to become\r\na trough or a remnant low in about 48 hours or sooner.  This is the\r\nsolution provided by the UK, ECMWF and GFS global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is uncertain given the difficulty in locating\r\nthe center. The best estimate is 260 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone\r\nis south of a strong ridge of high pressure, and this pattern should\r\ncontinue to steer the system on a general westward track until\r\ndissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z  9.0N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z  8.6N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z  8.3N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z  8.3N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z  8.7N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 10.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Otto","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-11-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Otto has continued to deteriorate during the\r\npast several hours, and satellite images indicate that the system\r\nhas degenerated into an elongated trough of low pressure.\r\nEnvironmental conditions are unfavorable for regeneration while the\r\nthe remnants of Otto continue to move westward embedded within the\r\nlow-level flow.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnants of Otto please see High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z  8.7N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF OTTO\r\n 12H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-06-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n400 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe compact area of low pressure near the coast of southern Mexico\r\nhas developed a well-defined center of circulation and sufficiently\r\norganized deep convection to be classified a tropical depression,\r\nthe first one of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.\r\nThe initial intensity estimate of 30 kt is based on a pair of\r\nrecent ASCAT passes and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.\r\nThe depression is a sheared tropical cyclone with much of the\r\nassociated deep convection located to the north of the low-level\r\ncenter.  Since the wind shear is expected to remain high, no\r\nchange in strength is predicted before the depression reaches the\r\ncoast on Tuesday.\r\n\r\nThe system is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east\r\nside of a broad trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf of\r\nMexico.  A continued northeastward motion at about the same forward\r\nspeed is expected, bringing the center near the coast in about 24\r\nhours. However, since the vortex is strongly tilted, the mid-level\r\ncenter of the system will likely move inland as early as tonight.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy\r\nrainfall, which has already begun over portions of southern\r\nMexico.  These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and\r\nmud slides, especially in areas of high terrain.\r\n\r\nThe Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a\r\nportion of southern Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 14.2N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 15.1N  96.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 15.9N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 16.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-06-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n1000 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite and microwave data indicate that the depression is not\r\nwell organized.  Although there is still a lot of strong\r\nconvection, last-light visible images suggested that the low-level\r\ncirculation was separating from the mid-level center.   The initial\r\nwind speed will remain 30 kt in accordance with the CI numbers from\r\nTAFB/SAB.  Increasing southerly shear should cause the depression to\r\nweaken tomorrow.  All of the guidance show the cyclone losing some\r\nstrength by late Tuesday, and the official forecasts follows their\r\nlead.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northeastward at about 8 kt on the east\r\nside of a mid-level trough that extends southwestward from the Gulf\r\nof Mexico.   While a vertically intact system would likely move\r\nonshore, more guidance tonight is suggesting that the low-level\r\ncenter will stay south of Mexico.  This solution makes sense since\r\nthe low and mid-level centers already appear to be separating.  The\r\nofficial forecast is thus shifted southward, between the ECMWF and\r\nGFDL model, keeping the center over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy\r\nrainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and\r\nmud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high\r\nterrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 14.5N  95.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 15.0N  95.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 15.6N  94.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 15.5N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-06-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n400 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016\r\n\r\nThis morning's satellite presentation reveals a rather poorly\r\norganized, substantially tilted tropical cyclone with the associated\r\nshapeless deep convective mass displaced to the northeast of the\r\ncenter.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt and is supported by\r\nthe TAFB and SAB satellite intensity estimates.  Strong, persistent\r\nsoutherly shear should induce a weakening trend as the system\r\napproaches the coast.  Most of the global models indicate that the\r\nsystem will become a remnant low and dissipate in 24 hours or so,\r\nand the NHC forecast reflects this scenario.\r\n\r\nWith a disorganized cloud pattern, the initial position and motion\r\nare highly uncertain, and are based mainly on continuity.  However,\r\nthe low to mid-level weak southwesterly flow produced by a shortwave\r\ntrough over southern Mexico should steer the vertically shallow\r\ncyclone generally northeastward toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec\r\nthrough the forecast period.  The official forecast is based on a\r\nblend of the GFS and ECMWF global and ensemble guidance and is\r\nslightly to the right of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy\r\nrainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and\r\nmud slides over southern Mexico, especially in areas of high\r\nterrain.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 14.6N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 15.1N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 15.3N  94.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-06-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated\r\nwith it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern\r\nsemicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from\r\nTAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning\r\nare the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt.\r\n\r\nIt is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still\r\nexists in association with the system.  First-light visible\r\nsatellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain\r\nambiguous as to the structure of its circulation.  The initial\r\nmotion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being\r\nsteered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of\r\na deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression\r\nshould slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of\r\nTehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north\r\nfrom that of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly\r\nvertical shear this morning.  This as well as proximity to the\r\nhigh terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into\r\nits circulation should likely prevent intensification into a\r\ntropical storm.  All statistical and dynamical guidance show\r\ndissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the\r\nGulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy\r\nrainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and\r\nmud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in\r\nareas of high terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 15.3N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 15.7N  94.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 16.0N  94.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-06-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016\r\n \r\nNumerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep\r\nconvection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and\r\nsoutheastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center.  No in-situ\r\nobservations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an\r\n18Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis\r\nfor maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt.\r\n \r\nIt again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical\r\ndepression.  The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight\r\nlow-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the\r\nsouthern edge of the convective overcast.  Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B\r\nscatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone\r\nwas consistent with a closed surface circulation center being\r\nlocated in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  The initial motion is an\r\nuncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by\r\nthe low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough\r\nover central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its\r\nforward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or\r\njust inland over southeastern Mexico.  The official track forecast\r\nis near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory.\r\n \r\nThe tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly\r\nvertical shear.  This as well as proximity to the high terrain of\r\nsouthern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is\r\nlikely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm.  All\r\nstatistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the\r\ntropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it\r\nremains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n \r\nThe main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy\r\nrainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and\r\nmud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in\r\nareas of high terrain.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  07/2100Z 15.5N  94.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 15.7N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 16.0N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-06-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe low-level center of the depression is difficult to locate even\r\non microwave imagery. Any convection left is weakening and is\r\nconfined within a band well removed from the alleged center. The\r\ncurrent position is highly uncertain and is based primarily on\r\ncontinuity and some hint of a circulation in the low clouds.  The\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and given the current\r\nshear, and the fact that the circulation is already interacting with\r\nthe high terrain of Mexico, additional weakening is anticipated. The\r\ndepression is forecast to become a remnant low in about 12 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression appears to be moving toward the northeast or 045\r\ndegrees at 3 kt. The steering flow should force the system on a slow\r\nnortheastward track, bringing the depression gradually inland.\r\nAnother alternative is for the mid-level center to move\r\nnortheastward while a weak low-level swirl remains meandering near\r\nthe coast.\r\n\r\nDespite the observed weakening of the depression, very heavy rain\r\ncontinues. This rainfall is enhanced by the moist southwest flow\r\nover the high terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where\r\nflash floods and mud slides are\r\n\r\n anticipated.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 15.9N  94.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 16.3N  94.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 16.5N  94.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 36H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-06-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n400 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016\r\n\r\nMexican surface and radar data, along with recent ASCAT overpasses,\r\nindicate that the center of the depression is now near the coast of\r\nMexico in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.  The scatterometer data suggests\r\nthat the maximum winds are at most 25 kt.  The depression is\r\nexpected to move inland later today and dissipate over southeastern\r\nMexico in less than 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a northward drift or 360/2.  A northward to\r\nnorth-northeastward drift should continue until dissipation.\r\n\r\nWhile the associated convection has been minimal for the past few\r\nhours, there is a continued heavy rainfall threat from this system.\r\nThis rainfall will be enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the\r\nhigh terrain of southern Mexico and western Guatemala where flash\r\nfloods and mud slides are anticipated.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 16.1N  94.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 16.4N  94.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 24H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"One-E","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-06-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP012016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012016\r\n1000 AM CDT WED JUN 08 2016\r\n\r\nMexican surface and radar data, along with a recent RAPIDSCAT\r\nscatterometer overpass, indicate that the tropical depression\r\nreached the Mexican coast earlier this morning and the surface\r\ncirculation has now dissipated. Peak onshore winds continue at\r\nabout 20 kt, which should diminish later today.\r\n\r\nEven though the surface circulation has dissipated, there is a\r\ncontinued heavy rainfall threat from this system. This rainfall will\r\nbe enhanced by the moist southwest flow over the high terrain of\r\nsouthern Mexico and western Guatemala, where flash floods and mud\r\nslides are anticipated.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 16.4N  94.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS OF ONE-E\r\n 12H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 01 2016\r\n\r\nASCAT data from earlier today indicated that the low pressure area\r\nseveral hundred miles southwest of the Baja California peninsula had\r\ndeveloped a well-defined circulation.  Deep convection, although\r\ncurrently sheared to the west of the low-level center, has become\r\nmore organized throughout the day, and TAFB and SAB have both given\r\nthe system classifications of T1.5.  Advisories are being initiated\r\non a new tropical depression, with the 25-kt initial intensity based\r\non the Dvorak estimates and ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward, or 300/8 kt, to the\r\nsouth of the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected to remain\r\nrelatively stationary, with the cyclone forecast to continue\r\nwest-northwestward for the next couple of days.  There are some\r\nspeed differences, however, with the ECMWF showing a slightly faster\r\nmotion compared with the other track models.  The NHC official\r\nforecast is a little faster than the consensus model trackers, which\r\ndid not include the ECMWF solution on this forecast cycle.  After 48\r\nhours, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn westward and then\r\nwest-southwestward by day 5.\r\n\r\nThe depression only has a small window of opportunity to strengthen.\r\nVertical shear is forecast to be low during the next 36 hours and\r\nthen increase significantly in 2 to 3 days.  In addition, the\r\ncyclone should move over water colder than 26 degrees Celsius and\r\ninto a much drier mid-level environment in about 36 hours.\r\nTherefore, only modest strengthening to tropical storm strength is\r\nshown in the NHC official forecast in the first day or two, followed\r\nby weakening and degeneration to a remnant low by day 3.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 14.7N 116.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 15.1N 118.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 15.8N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 16.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 17.1N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 17.7N 128.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 17.0N 132.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z 15.5N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016\r\n\r\nDespite the symmetric area of convection observed on conventional\r\ninfrared imagery, several microwave passes indicate that the\r\nlow-level center is still located to the southeast or near the edge\r\nof the thunderstorm activity due to southeasterly shear. Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed very much, but support\r\nan initial intensity of 30 kt.  There is an opportunity for the\r\ndepression to slightly strengthen during the next day or so while\r\nthe shear decreases. After that time, an environment of higher shear\r\nand cool SSTs should result in weakening, and the cyclone should\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours or sooner.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees\r\nat 9 kt, steered by the flow around a nearly stationary subtropical\r\nridge. This general motion should continue during the next 24 to 48\r\nhours, and as the cyclone weakens, it should move to the west and\r\neven to the west-southwest steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one, and it very close to\r\nthe solution provided by most of the dynamical guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 15.0N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 15.4N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 16.1N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 16.8N 123.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 17.3N 125.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-07-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016\r\n\r\nRecent SSM/I and AMSR-2 data indicate that the center of Tropical\r\nDepression Two-E has become centrally located in the convective\r\novercast, and first-light visible imagery shows a large convective\r\nburst near the center.  Satellite intensity estimates at 1200Z were\r\n30 kt from TAFB and SAB.  Based on the increased organization since\r\nthat time and a recent CIMSS ADT estimate of 35 kt, the depression\r\nis upgraded to Tropical Storm Agatha, the first named storm of the\r\n2016 eastern Pacific hurricane season.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of the storm should steer it generally west-northwestward for\r\n24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west.  Late in the\r\nforecast period, a turn toward the west-southwest is expected as\r\nthe remnants of Agatha come under the influence of a larger\r\ntropical weather system to the east.  The new forecast track is\r\nshifted to the north of the previous track based on the initial\r\nposition and motion.  However, it lies to the south of the various\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\nSome additional strengthening is possible during the next 12-24\r\nhours while Agatha remains in a light/moderate shear environment\r\nover relatively warm sea surface temperatures.  Beyond that time, a\r\ncombination of strong southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface\r\ntemperatures should cause a steady weakening.  Agatha is expected\r\nto weaken to a depression by 48 hours, a remnant low by 72 hours,\r\nand dissipate completely by 120 hours.\r\n\r\nAgatha is the latest first tropical storm in the eastern Pacific\r\nsince Ava of 1969.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 15.6N 118.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 16.2N 120.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 17.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 17.7N 124.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 18.1N 126.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 18.0N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 17.0N 134.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-07-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016\r\n\r\nA ragged convective overcast with cloud tops to -80C has persisted\r\nnear the center of Agatha since the last advisory.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 30 and 35 kt,\r\nrespectively, while the latest CIMSS ADT estimate is 45 kt.  The\r\ninitial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, and this\r\ncould be a little conservative.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 295/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of the storm should steer it generally west-northwestward for\r\n24 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the west.  Late in the\r\nforecast period, a turn to a south-of-west direction is expected as\r\nthe remnants of Agatha come under the influence of a larger\r\ntropical weather system to the east.  The new forecast track is a\r\nlittle to the north of the previous track at 48 hours, but\r\notherwise is similar to the earlier forecast.  However, the\r\nforecast is still a little to the south of the various consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nSome additional strengthening is possible during the next 12-24\r\nhours while Agatha remains in a light vertical wind shear\r\nenvironment and over relatively warm sea surface temperatures.\r\nBeyond that time, a combination of strong southwesterly shear and\r\ncooler sea surface temperatures should cause a steady weakening.\r\nAgatha is expected to weaken to a depression by 48 hours, a remnant\r\nlow by 72 hours, and dissipate completely by 96 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 16.1N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 16.7N 121.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 17.5N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 18.1N 126.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 18.4N 128.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 18.0N 131.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 02 2016\r\n\r\nRecent SSMIS microwave data indicate that Agatha has a nearly closed\r\nring of convection around a mid-level center, but the overall\r\ncoverage of cold cloud tops has decreased significantly since the\r\nprevious advisory.  A new burst of convection is, however,\r\ndeveloping near Agatha's center.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nremain T2.5, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt.  There is\r\nstill a little room for some strengthening during the next 12 hours\r\nor so while the vertical shear is low and sea surface temperatures\r\nare around 26C.  The shear increases after 24 hours, and along with\r\ncolder waters and a drier atmosphere, these factors should cause\r\nAgatha to weaken to a remnant low in 2 to 3 days and dissipate by\r\nday 4.  This forecast is unchanged from the previous NHC official\r\nintensity forecast.\r\n\r\nAgatha appears to have accelerated a bit, with an initial motion of\r\n295/13 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone\r\nshould maintain Agatha on a west-northwestward heading for the next\r\n36 hours, followed by a turn toward the west by 48 hours.  The\r\ntrack model envelope has shifted northward on this cycle, and the\r\nupdated NHC track forecast has also been pushed in that direction,\r\nalthough not as far north as the GFS and not as far west as the\r\nECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 16.6N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 17.4N 123.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 18.2N 125.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 18.8N 127.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 19.1N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 19.3N 133.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nA small burst of cold-topped convection has remained near the\r\ncenter of Agatha during the past 6 hours, and earlier microwave\r\nsatellite data indicate that the compact cyclone had developed a\r\nsmall mid-level eye feature. Satellite intensity estimates are\r\nT2.5/35 kt from TAFB, T3.0/45 kt from SAB, UW-CIMSS ADT 3.3/51 kt,\r\nand 48 kt from a recent AMSU estimate. A blend of these intensity\r\nvalues supports increasing the initial intensity to at least 40 kt.\r\n\r\nAgatha's initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt based on a 12-hour\r\naverage motion. Latest NHC model guidance remains in good agreement\r\non maintaining a strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of\r\nAgatha for the next several days. This stable steering pattern\r\nshould keep the small cyclone moving in a general west-northwestward\r\ndirection for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a turn toward the\r\nwest after that. The official NHC track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious forecast track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE.\r\n\r\nAgatha has likely reached its peak intensity, so little change in\r\nstrength is expected today. By tonight and especially on Monday, the\r\ncyclone will be encountering increasing southwesterly vertical wind\r\nshear in excess of 20 kt, and will also be moving over sea-surface\r\ntemperatures less than 26C and into a significantly drier air mass.\r\nThese negative factors should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant\r\nlow by 48-72 hours, and dissipate by day 4.  This official intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory and closely follows\r\nthe intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 17.0N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 17.7N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 18.4N 126.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 18.9N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 19.1N 130.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 19.4N 134.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nAgatha continues to maintain a ragged-looking area of deep\r\nconvection near and south of the estimated center, but the system\r\nlacks convective banding features.  The current intensity is kept at\r\n40 kt, which is an average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\nThe environment of the tropical cyclone should become increasingly\r\nunfavorable, with drier mid-tropospheric air and strengthening\r\nsouthwesterly shear, so a weakening trend is expected to commence\r\nwithin 12 to 24 hours.  Agatha is likely to degenerate into a\r\nremnant low in 48 hours, and to dissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate, 290/11 kt, is nearly unchanged from\r\nthe previous advisory.  Over the next several days, a mid-level\r\nridge to the north of Agatha is forecast to weaken somewhat by the\r\nglobal models.  This should cause a gradual deceleration, and as\r\nthe cyclone becomes weaker and shallower during the next few days,\r\nit should turn toward the west.  The official track forecast is\r\nvery similar to the previous ones, and lies quite close to the\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 17.3N 123.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 17.9N 125.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 18.5N 127.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 18.9N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 19.2N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 19.3N 134.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough the low-cloud circulation is well defined, the coverage of\r\ndeep convection associated with Agatha has diminished today.  The\r\nmaximum winds are estimated to be near 40 kt, which is a blend of\r\nDvorak Current Intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone\r\nwill be moving through an environment of increasing southwesterly\r\nshear, drier mid-level air, and cooling SSTs.  These factors should\r\ncause weakening, and Agatha is expected to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow in 48 hours, or sooner.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the latest LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone's estimated motion, 285/12 kt, hasn't changed much from\r\nearlier today.  The track forecast reasoning remains about the same\r\nas well.  Agatha is being steered by a mid-level ridge to its north\r\nbut as the cyclone weakens and becomes shallower, it should move\r\nmore westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The official\r\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous one, and about in the\r\nmiddle of the dynamical track guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 17.7N 125.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 18.1N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 18.7N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 19.1N 130.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 19.2N 132.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 19.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough Agatha still has a tight circulation, the overall\r\nconvective pattern has lost some organization during the last\r\nseveral hours.  The initial intensity has been lowered a little to\r\n35 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from TAFB and ADT\r\nestimates from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  Agatha is\r\ncurrently over cool 25 deg C waters and is embedded in a stable air\r\nmass, as evident by the field of stratocumulus clouds over the\r\nwestern half of the circulation. These unfavorable conditions,\r\ncombined with a notable increase in southwesterly shear during the\r\nnext day or so, should cause Agatha to weaken to a remnant low in\r\nabout 36 hours, or perhaps sooner. The remnant low is forecast to\r\ndissipate in about 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt while\r\nbeing steered by a mid-level ridge over northwestern Mexico.  The\r\nweakening system is expected to gradually turn westward during the\r\nnext couple of days as it becomes a shallower cyclone and is mainly\r\nsteered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is\r\nnudged a little to the south of the previous one and lies very close\r\nto the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 18.0N 125.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 18.8N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 18.9N 131.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 18.8N 133.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 18.5N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe amount and organization of deep convection in Agatha continues\r\nto decrease overnight due to the combination of moderate\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear and a cool, stable airmass.\r\nCorrespondingly, the 06Z Dvorak numbers from SAB and TAFB have\r\ndropped and would typically suggest that the system has weakened to\r\na tropical depression.  However, ASCAT scatterometer passes at 0510Z\r\nand 0602Z indicate that the strongest winds were near 40 kt at those\r\ntimes.  Given the continued deterioration of the convection since\r\nthen, the initial intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt.\r\n\r\nIt is not likely that Agatha will experience any additional\r\nintensification episodes.  The adverse effects of increasing\r\nsouthwesterly vertical shear, cool 24C waters, and more stable air\r\nshould lead to Agatha dropping to a tropical depression later today\r\nand becoming a remnant low by Tuesday.  The NHC intensity forecast -\r\nnearly unchanged from the previous advisory - is based on a blend\r\nof the LGEM/SHIPS statistical schemes and the GFDL mesoscale model.\r\n\r\nAgatha is moving at 280 degrees/11 kt, primarily steered by a\r\ndeep-layer ridge to its northeast.  Uncertainty in the current\r\nlocation and movement is low, due to the scatterometer passes, as\r\nwell as an earlier GMI microwave image.  As Agatha weakens and\r\nbecomes a shallow remnant low steered by the low-level flow, the\r\nsystem should turn slightly toward the west or west-southwest at a\r\nslower forward speed.  The global and mesoscale hurricane model\r\nguidance is in a tightly-clustered agreement with this scenario, and\r\nthe NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 18.1N 127.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 18.4N 128.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 18.8N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 18.9N 132.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 18.7N 134.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nAgatha's center is exposed to the southwest of a diminishing area of\r\ndeep convection.  The current intensity is held at 35 kt in\r\naccordance with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB, although this may be\r\ngenerous.  A broad upper-level trough to the west of the\r\ntropical cyclone is imparting about 25 kt of southwesterly shear\r\nover Agatha.  The dynamical guidance indicates that this shear will\r\nincrease some more and this, along with cooling ocean waters and\r\ndry air, should cause the cyclone to weaken and degenerate into a\r\nremnant low by Tuesday.  The official intensity forecast is in good\r\nagreement with the latest LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nA mainly westward motion, or 280/11 kt, continues while Agatha is\r\nsteered by the flow to the south of a mid-level ridge.  There is no\r\nsignificant change to the track forecast.  The weakening and\r\nincreasingly shallow cyclone should continue on a generally westward\r\ncourse following the low-level easterlies.  The official track\r\nforecast is an extension of the previous one and is in good\r\nagreement with the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 18.4N 128.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 18.7N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 18.9N 131.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 19.0N 133.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 18.9N 135.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nStrong shear, cooler waters, and drier air are taking their toll on\r\nAgatha.  The system has lost practically all deep convection, and\r\nis technically too weak to classify via the Dvorak technique.  A\r\nrecent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum winds have decreased to\r\nnear 30 kt.  Given the hostile environment, Agatha is likely to\r\ncontinue weakening, and advisories on this system will likely be\r\ndiscontinued soon.\r\n\r\nWith more visible imagery now available, the center has been\r\nrepositioned just slightly to the north of the previous track, but\r\nthe motion is still basically toward the west, or 280/11 kt.  The\r\ncyclone should continue a generally westward motion in the\r\nlow-level easterly flow until it dissipates.  The official track\r\nforecast is close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 18.8N 129.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 19.2N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 19.6N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 19.7N 134.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 19.6N 136.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Agatha","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP022016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022016\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nAgatha has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours, and\r\nsince the cyclone continues to move into an environment of very dry\r\nmid-level air, cool water, and strong shear, organized deep\r\nconvection is unlikely to return.  On this basis, Agatha has been\r\ndeclared a remnant low, and this is the last NHC advisory.  The\r\ninitial wind speed of 30 kt is based on the earlier ASCAT data, and\r\ncould be a little generous.  Given the hostile conditions, the\r\nremnant low should continue to weaken and is expected to dissipate\r\nin 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been moving generally westward or 280/10 kt, and is\r\nforecast to continue westward in the low-level easterly flow until\r\ndissipation occurs.  Additional information on the remnant low can\r\nbe found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather\r\nService, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and\r\non the web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 19.3N 130.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 19.7N 131.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 20.0N 133.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 20.0N 135.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 20.0N 137.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016\r\n\r\nThe deep convection associated with the area of low pressure well\r\nsouthwest of Manzanillo has become much better organized during the\r\npast 6 to 12 hours, and this system is now classified as a tropical\r\ncyclone.  Satellite imagery shows a large convective canopy with\r\nmultiple curved bands.  The estimated center position is near the\r\neastern edge of the deep convection and the initial intensity is set\r\nto 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.\r\n\r\nThe environment appears conducive for at least steady strengthening\r\nduring the next 3 days, as the cyclone will be moving over SSTs of\r\n29-30C and in an environment of low to moderate shear and abundant\r\nmoisture.  The NHC intensity forecast shows the system becoming a\r\ntropical storm tonight or early Sunday and becoming a hurricane on\r\nMonday.  The system is expected to peak in intensity in 3 to 4 days\r\nnear major hurricane strength before gradual weakening begins as the\r\ncenter moves over progressively cooler waters.  The official\r\nforecast is above the intensity consensus and close to a blend of\r\nthe SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 280/10 given the\r\nrecent formation of the system.  The dominant steering mechanism\r\nthrough the forecast period will be the western periphery of a\r\nsubtropical ridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern\r\nUnited States.  This pattern should guide the cyclone on a general\r\nwestward to west-northwestward motion during the next 5 days.  Most\r\nof the track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario\r\nwith the exception of the GFDL model, which is well to the right.\r\nThere is some along-track spread between the generally slower GFS\r\nmodel and the faster ECMWF and HWRF through much of the period. The\r\nacross-track spread increases in 4-5 days with the GFS and GEFS\r\nensemble mean showing more of a poleward turn as they erode the\r\nridge more, while the ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble mean, and UKMET have a\r\nstronger ridge and more westward motion. The NHC track forecast is\r\nclose to a blend of these two camps through the forecast period and\r\nis of about average confidence.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 11.1N 108.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 11.3N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 11.8N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 12.4N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 12.9N 116.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 13.8N 120.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 15.0N 125.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 16.5N 129.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n300 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite imagery indicate that a long\r\ncurved band of convection now wraps at least half way around the\r\nlow-level center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have\r\nincreased as result, with TAFB coming in at T2.5/35 kt and SAB at\r\nT3.0/45 kt. Therefore, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical\r\nStorm Blas.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/12, based heavily on microwave\r\nfix positions. Overall, there is no significant change to the\r\nprevious forecast track or reasoning. Blas is expected to move\r\nalong the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge\r\nlocated over northern Mexico and the southern United States.  This\r\nstable steering pattern should keep Blas moving in a general\r\nwestward to west-northwestward direction for the next 120 hours.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is slightly north of the previous forecast\r\ntrack, and closely follows the consensus track model TVCE.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for steady strengthening\r\nduring the next 72 hours as Blas moves over SSTs of 29-30C and\r\nencounters decreasing vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt. The\r\nnew NHC intensity forecast shows Blas becoming a hurricane on Monday\r\nand a major hurricane by Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected to\r\nbegin by 96 hours or so as the cyclone starts to move over 26C or\r\ncooler seas-surface temperatures, which should result in some cold\r\nupwelling or mixing beneath Blas. The official forecast is above the\r\nintensity consensus IVCN, and close to the previous intensity\r\nforecast and a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 11.7N 109.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 12.0N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 12.6N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 13.1N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 13.6N 117.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 14.6N 122.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 15.8N 126.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 17.3N 130.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-07-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n900 AM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates a marked increase in organization of the\r\nBlas' cloud pattern overnight, suggesting that the cyclone is\r\nquickly intensifying.  The center is located underneath a ball of\r\ndeep convection, the latter which appears to be a formative central\r\ndense overcast.  The large-envelope cyclone also has a lengthening\r\nband that consists of very cold-topped convection in the shape of a\r\nfigure six. Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt\r\nfrom SAB and TAFB at 1200 UTC, respectively.  The initial intensity\r\nis raised to 50 kt, based on a blend of the two intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/11.  Blas is forecast to move\r\nalong the southern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge\r\ncentered over northern Mexico throughout the forecast period, which\r\nshould keep the cyclone on a general west-northwesterly course.  The\r\nmodel guidance is in very good agreement through 72 hours, but\r\ndiverges after that time.  The GFS and its ensemble mean lie near\r\nthe previous forecast and is on the northern side of the guidance\r\nenvelope, while the ECMWF and its ensemble mean are much farther\r\nsouth.  The differences between the two models appear related to\r\nsubtle variations in the strength and position of the subtropical\r\nridge forecast after day 3.  The NHC track forecast is adjusted a\r\nbit south of the previous one, on the southern side of the guidance\r\nenvelope through 72 hours and near the multi-model consensus after\r\nthat time.\r\n\r\nThere does not appear to be anything obvious on the large-scale to\r\nimpede intensification over the next few days, except that the\r\ncyclone will be very gradually departing the warmest waters over the\r\nbasin.  The light-easterly-shear, moist environment and warm waters\r\nshould allow Blas to strengthen into a major hurricane as indicated\r\nin about 48 hours.  The official NHC forecast through that time is\r\nheavily weighted toward the statistical guidance which is performing\r\nwell, considering the current developmental trend.  By 96 hours,\r\neven though the shear is forecast to remain low, the cyclone should\r\nbe moving over steadily cooler waters and entering a drier and more\r\nstable environment.  This should foster a weakening trend, though\r\nthe weakening will likely occur only gradually.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 11.6N 110.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 12.1N 112.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 12.6N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 13.1N 116.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 13.6N 118.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 14.6N 123.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 16.0N 127.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 17.3N 131.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-07-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n300 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nBlas' cloud pattern has not changed appreciably in organization\r\nsince the previous advisory.  Visible and microwave satellite\r\nimagery suggests that the cyclone's low-level center is located at\r\nthe northern tip of a long band whose convective tops have been\r\nslowly warming.  This structure suggests that Blas' rate of\r\nintensification is not as fast as was suspected earlier, possibly\r\ndue to some northeasterly shear and likely the cyclone's large size.\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a steady 285/11.  There has been no\r\nchange to the track forecast philosophy since the previous\r\nadvisory.  Blas is forecast to move west-northwestward throughout\r\nthe forecast period along the southern periphery of a deep-layer\r\nsubtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico. The\r\nGFS and ECMWF solutions have come into much better agreement beyond\r\nday 3, and the overall spread in the guidance is low through day 5.\r\nThe new NHC forecast track is shifted to the north some, and lies\r\nvery near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThere does not appear to be anything conspicuous on the large scale\r\nthat would prevent Blas from intensifying into a major hurricane\r\nduring the next few days, and a large one at that.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast through day 3 is near or just below the\r\nstatistical guidance, which is unanimously calling for Blas to\r\nbecome an intense hurricane.  By 96 hours, even though the shear is\r\nforecast to remain low, the cyclone should be moving over steadily\r\ncooler waters and entering a drier and more stable environment. This\r\nshould promote a weakening trend that will likely become more rapid\r\nby the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 12.2N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 12.8N 113.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 13.4N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 13.9N 117.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 14.3N 120.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 15.5N 124.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 18.4N 132.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-07-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n900 PM MDT SUN JUL 03 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Blas has not changed much since the\r\nprevious advisory, with the cyclone featuring large convective bands\r\nand a developing CDO feature.  A GCOM/AMSR-2 image from 2042 UTC\r\nshowed a mid-level eye feature displaced about 30 n mi southwest of\r\nthe low-level center, consistent with about 10 kt of northeasterly\r\nshear.  Satellite classifications remain T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and\r\nSAB, and that is the initial intensity.  The intensity forecast\r\nreasoning remains unchanged, as Blas should continue to strengthen\r\nat a steady rate for the next 48 hours over warm SSTs and in a low\r\nto moderate shear environment.  After 48 hours the SSTs cool\r\nsteadily along the forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5, and\r\nquick weakening is forecast by then.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nclose to or a bit above the SHIPS model at the high end of the\r\nguidance through 48 hours, and trends toward the weaker LGEM late in\r\nthe period.  Its worth noting that the HWRF and GFDL models are much\r\nweaker with Blas compared to the statistical models for this cycle.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/10.  The dominant steering\r\nmechanism through the forecast period is a mid-level ridge centered\r\nover northern Mexico and extending westward across the eastern\r\nPacific.  This feature should steer Blas on a general westward to\r\nwest-northwestward track through the forecast period.  The track\r\nmodel guidance is in very good agreement with small spread through\r\nday 4, but the spread increases a bit at day 5.  By then the GFS\r\nshows more of a poleward turn as the ridge is eroded by a closed\r\nmid/upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, while the\r\nECMWF and UKMET show less influence from the upper low.  The new NHC\r\nforecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions and is\r\nin the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 12.4N 112.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 12.9N 113.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 13.5N 116.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 14.0N 118.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 14.5N 121.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 15.9N 125.7W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 17.3N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 19.1N 132.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-07-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n300 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nDuring the past few hours, the satellite appearance of Blas has\r\nchanged from consisting of primarily a long curved band to a large\r\ncentral dense overcast (CDO) feature. Recent AMSU data showed that a\r\nnearly closed mid-level eye feature with a diameter of about 35 nmi\r\nhas also developed within the southwestern portion of the CDO. A\r\n0420 UTC ASCAT pass revealed surface winds near 50 kt in the\r\nnortheastern quadrant and a radius of maximum winds of about 30 nmi.\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT estimates were near 55 kt. These data support an\r\nintensity of 55 kt at 0600 UTC. However, since that time the\r\nsatellite signature has improved, so the advisory intensity has\r\nbeen increased to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains a steady 285/10 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast reasoning and the\r\nlatest NHC model guidance suite remains tightly packed. Therefore,\r\nthe new forecast track is essentially just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track due to the subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nBlas remaining strong throughout the entire forecast period. The\r\nnew NHC forecast closely follows the consensus model TVCE and\r\nbasically lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe atmospheric and oceanic environment is expected to be quite\r\nfavorable for Blas to strengthen during the next 48-60 hours. Since\r\nthe global models are forecasting Blas' outflow pattern to gradually\r\nexpand and become more symmetrical, along with the development of\r\nboth poleward and equator outflow channels, a period of rapid\r\nintensification is expected for at least the next 24 hours. Blas is\r\nexpected to achieve its peak intensity around 48 hours or so when\r\nthe vertical wind shear is forecast to be low at around 5 kt. After\r\nthat, gradual weakening should begin by 72 hours when Blas will be\r\nmoving over sub-26C SSTs, creating cold upwelling/mixing beneath the\r\ncyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is well above the consensus\r\nmodel IVCN, and closely follows the LGEM statistical-dynamical\r\nintensity model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 12.7N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 13.2N 114.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 13.8N 117.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 14.2N 119.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 14.8N 122.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 16.1N 126.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 17.5N 130.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 19.4N 133.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-07-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n900 AM MDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nBlas' cloud pattern consists of a large mass of cold-topped central\r\nconvection and a couple of fragmented outer bands.  A 1027 UTC SSM/I\r\npass revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature, but the low-level\r\nstructure appeared less organized.  Dvorak satellite classifications\r\nwere T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.\r\nTaking into account the overnight ASCAT pass, the initial intensity\r\nis set at 65 kt, the low end of the intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is unchanged at 285/11.  The track\r\nforecast remains straightforward. Blas is expected to be steered\r\nalong the southern side of a deep-layer subtropical ridge extending\r\nwestward from northern Mexico and the southern United States during\r\nthe next 3-4 days.  The cyclone should reach the western periphery\r\nof the ridge by days 4-5, which should result in a turn nearly\r\ntoward the northwest.  The model guidance is in relatively good\r\nagreement throughout the forecast period, though the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels diverge some after day 3.  The NHC track forecast does not\r\ndeviate much from the previous one and is north of the southernmost\r\nECMWF owing to the forecast of a strong hurricane, more like the GFS\r\nsolution indicates.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale environment surrounding Blas is characterized by\r\nlight to moderate northeasterly shear and a rich supply of\r\nmoisture.  Coupled with warm-enough waters, Blas should intensify\r\ninto a large and intense hurricane during the next couple of days\r\nonce it establishes a better organized inner core. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast continues to lean heavily on the statistical guidance, some\r\nof which strengthens Blas even more than the current forecast.\r\nAround 72 hours, even though the shear should still be low, the\r\nhurricane should enter a drier and more stable environment and begin\r\ntraversing sub-26 deg C waters.  This should promote a slow\r\nweakening trend that will accelerate after 96 hours once Blas moves\r\nover much cooler waters.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 13.3N 114.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 13.6N 116.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 14.1N 118.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 14.6N 121.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 15.1N 123.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 16.3N 127.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 17.8N 131.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 19.8N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-07-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nBlas' cloud pattern has not changed much in organization since this\r\nmorning, except for the emergence of what appears to be a ragged,\r\nbanding-type eye.  The cyclone's central features are still not that\r\nwell organized, although there are some recent signs that this may\r\nbe changing.  A dry slot of air has also been wrapping around the\r\nwestern half of the circulation.  Dvorak classifications remain T4.0\r\nand T4.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. A 1652 UTC ASCAT overpass\r\nindicates that Blas is a minimal hurricane at best, and the initial\r\nintensity estimate is held at 65 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe latest fixes indicate that the initial motion is a little faster\r\nand has a bit more of a northerly component than yesterday.  The\r\nbest estimate is that the cyclone is moving 290/12.  Overall, the\r\nforecast reasoning is unchanged.  Blas should be steered on a west-\r\nnorthwestward course during the next several days to the south of\r\na strong, deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward from\r\nnorthern Mexico.  A more northwesterly track is possible toward the\r\nend of the forecast period as the cyclone nears the western end of\r\nthis ridge.  The new NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the\r\nnorth in the short term and lies on the northern side of the\r\nguidance envelope.  The forecast does not deviate much from the\r\nprevious forecast beyond day 2 and lies near the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nIt is unclear as to why Blas has not strengthened much, especially\r\nsince the large-scale environment appears conducive for\r\nintensification. The current interruption to the cyclone's\r\nstrengthening could be related to a dry air intrusion from an\r\nunknown source and/or some northeasterly shear.  Whatever the cause,\r\nadditional strengthening is still indicated, and the new intensity\r\nforecast remains near the upper-end statistical guidance. On days\r\n3-4, Blas will reach the 26-deg sea surface temperature isotherm and\r\nencounter substantially drier and more stable air. This should\r\nresult in gradual weakening in an otherwise low-shear environment.\r\nBy 96 hours, rapid weakening is expected to commence due to\r\nincreasingly unfavorable environmental factors.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii have been significantly adjusted based on the\r\naforementioned ASCAT overpass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 13.7N 115.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 14.1N 117.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 14.6N 120.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 15.1N 122.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 15.6N 124.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 16.8N 128.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 18.2N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 20.0N 135.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-07-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016\r\n\r\nBlas is gradually gaining strength.  A ragged eye has been\r\noccasionally evident in geostationary satellite images and the\r\ninner core of the hurricane appears a little better organized than\r\nit was earlier today.  In fact, a recent SSMIS microwave overpass\r\nshowed an eye feature within the symmetric CDO.  The latest\r\nDvorak classifications and ADT values from CIMSS at the University\r\nof Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to 75 kt.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is expected to remain in conducive environmental\r\nconditions for strengthening for another 36 hours as the wind shear\r\nis expected to be less than 10 kt with sufficiently warm water and a\r\nconsiderable amount of moisture. The official NHC intensity forecast\r\nremains at the upper end of the guidance during that time and calls\r\nfor Blas to reach major hurricane status. In about two days,\r\nhowever, the system is forecast to move over sea surface\r\ntemperatures of around 26 C and into a more stable air mass, which\r\nshould end the strengthening phase and promote a steady weakening\r\ntrend. Blas is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the\r\nend of the period when it is forecast to be over sea surface\r\ntemperatures near 24 C.\r\n\r\nBlas continues to move west-northwestward at about 12 kt on the\r\nsouth side of a sprawling mid-level ridge over Mexico and the\r\neastern Pacific Ocean.  The models are in very good agreement\r\nin showing a continued west-northwestward motion during the next 3\r\nto 4 days while the ridge remains the primary steering mechanism.\r\nThere is some divergence in the model solutions by the end of the\r\nforecast period, with the GFS, GFDL, and UKMET models showing a more\r\nnorthern track while the ECMWF and HWRF models have a track farther\r\nsouth.  This spread is associated with differences in how much Blas\r\ninteracts with a cut off low north of the Hawaiian Islands.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope and\r\nis very close to the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 14.0N 116.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 14.4N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 14.9N 121.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 15.3N 123.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 15.8N 125.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 17.1N 129.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 18.9N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 20.7N 135.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-07-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016\r\n\r\nBlas has continued to strengthen since the previous advisory. The\r\nCDO has improved and the overall convective cloud pattern has\r\nbecome more symmetrical. A ragged eye feature has been evident in\r\ninfrared imagery and is now completely surrounded by cloud tops\r\ncolder than -75C. Recent AMSU and ASCAT overpasses have helped\r\nto place the center a little to the northeast of the positions noted\r\nin conventional infrared imagery. The initial intensity has been\r\nincreased to 85 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity\r\nestimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and NHC objective intensities\r\nranging from T4.7-T5.0, and the continued improvement in the eye\r\npattern depicted in conventional and microwave satellite imagery.\r\n\r\nBased primarily on microwave satellite fixes, Blas continues to move\r\nwest-northwestward or 285/12 kt. The hurricane is forecast to move\r\nin a general west-northward direction throughout the forecast period\r\ndue to a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge remaining nearly\r\nstationary to the north of Blas. The latest NHC global and regional\r\nmodel guidance remains in excellent agreement on this stable\r\nsteering pattern, and the models are tightly packed around the\r\nprevious advisory track. Therefore, only minor tweaks were made, and\r\nthe new forecast track lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.\r\n\r\nBlas has been rapidly strengthening over the past 24 hours, and an\r\nadditional 12 hours or so of significant strengthening is supported\r\nby an expanding upper-level outflow pattern, low vertical wind shear\r\nvalues decreasing to less than 5 kt by 12-24 hours, and a smaller\r\nradius of maximum winds of about 15 nmi noted in recent ASCAT data.\r\nAlthough vertical shear values are expected to remain low, by 36-48\r\nhours Blas will be moving over SSTs near 26C and ocean heat content\r\nvalues near zero, which should result in cooling of the ocean\r\nbeneath the hurricane and begin a slow weakening trend. By 72 hours\r\nand beyond, Blas will be moving over even cooler water and into a\r\ndrier and more stable air mass, negative factors which should\r\ncombine to induce more significant weakening. The official intensity\r\nforecast remains well above he consensus model IVCN and closely\r\nfollows the GFS-based LGEM statistical-dynamical intensity model,\r\nwhich has thus far handled Blas' intensification trend the best.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 14.2N 118.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 14.5N 119.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 15.0N 122.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 15.4N 124.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 16.0N 126.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 17.2N 129.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 19.1N 133.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 20.7N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-07-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016\r\n\r\nBlas has been intensifying rapidly this morning.  Satellite imagery\r\nshows a ragged eye that has been warming and becoming better defined\r\nin the middle of a large-sized central dense overcast (CDO).  A\r\nspecial Dvorak satellite classification from TAFB suggests that the\r\ncyclone is close to major hurricane status, so the initial intensity\r\nis boosted to 95 kt, and this could be conservative.\r\n\r\nBlas has been moving nearly due westward since the last advisory,\r\nwith a longer-term initial motion estimate of 280/13.  For about\r\nthe next 72 hours, the track model output is in good agreement that\r\nBlas should be steered westward and then west-northwestward around\r\nthe southern and western periphery of a deep-layer ridge over the\r\nsubtropical eastern Pacific.  After that time, there is a rather\r\nsignificant divergence in the track guidance.  The bulk of the model\r\nsolutions indicate a northwestward track when Blas interacts with\r\na cut-off low well northwest of it and encounters weaker ridging.\r\nThe ECMWF and its ensemble mean, however, predict a much more\r\nsoutherly track in response to a stronger subtropical ridge. The\r\nNHC forecast track is adjusted to the south of the previous one,\r\nowing mostly to the more westerly initial motion.  The track\r\nforecast is closer to the ECMWF solution beyond day 3, based on the\r\npremise that Blas should weaken significantly and become a shallow\r\ncyclone during that time.\r\n\r\nGiven that Blas is undergoing rapid intensification, the short-term\r\nforecast shows a significant increase in intensity within the next\r\n12 to 24 hours and is above all of the numerical guidance.  Later in\r\nthe period the hurricane should be moving over cooler waters, so a\r\ngradual weakening trend is expected to commence in about 48 hours.\r\nIf Blas follows a more southern route than anticipated, however, it\r\ncould weaken more slowly than shown here.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 14.1N 119.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 14.4N 121.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 14.8N 123.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 17.4N 130.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 19.1N 134.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  10/1200Z 20.6N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016\r\n\r\nBlas has the classic appearance of a powerful hurricane in satellite\r\nimagery this afternoon, with a 20 n mi wide eye embedded in a\r\nsymmetric central dense overcast which in turn is almost surrounded\r\nby outer convective bands.  Satellite intensity estimates are 115\r\nkt from SAB and 102 kt from TAFB, and a recent CIMSS Advanced\r\nDvorak Technique estimate is 110 kt.  Based on these data, the\r\ninitial intensity is increased to 110 kt, making Blas the first\r\nmajor hurricane of the eastern Pacific season.\r\n\r\nBlas continues its westward movement with an initial motion of\r\n275/14.  For the next 72 hours or so, the hurricane should be\r\nsteered generally westward to west-northwestward by a deep-layer\r\nridge over the subtropical eastern Pacific.  This portion of the\r\nnew forecast track is an update of the previous track.  After 72\r\nhours, the forecast confidence decreases as the track guidance\r\ndiverges.  The GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM, and Canadian models turn Blas\r\nnorthwestward between the ridge and a large mid- to upper-level low\r\ncentered to the northeast of the Hawaiian islands.  In contrast\r\nto the other models, the ECMWF forecasts the low to move westward\r\nwith mid-level ridging developing between it and Blas.  Thus, it\r\nforecasts Blas to turn westward by 120 hours.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is similar to the old track in showing a west-northwestward\r\nmotion at 96 and 120 hours, with the track lying between the ECMWF\r\nand the other models.\r\n\r\nBlas should remain in a light-shear environment over warm water for\r\nthe next 12-24 hours or so, and some additional strengthening is\r\npossible during this time.  While the shear is expected to be\r\nlight to moderate during the forecast period, the cyclone should\r\nmove over decreasing sea surface temperatures after 24 hours which\r\nshould cause a steady weakening.  The new forecast intensity is\r\nsimilar to that of the previous advisory and calls for Blas to decay\r\nto a remnant low over cold water by 120 hours. However, if the ECMWF\r\ntrack verifies, the system would stay over warmer water and likely\r\nremain a tropical cyclone at 120 hours and beyond.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 14.3N 120.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 15.1N 124.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 15.7N 126.8W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 16.3N 128.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  10/1800Z 21.1N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016\r\n\r\nBlas continues to intensify.  Satellite images indicate that Blas\r\nhas a typical appearance of a major hurricane with a distinct eye\r\nsurrounded by a fairly symmetric ring of deep convection.  The\r\nDvorak CI-numbers at 0000 UTC were 6.0/115 kt from TAFB and SAB, and\r\nrecent ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are a\r\nlittle higher.  Based on these estimates and the continued\r\nimprovement in organization since the time of the classifications,\r\nthe initial wind speed is set at 120 kt.  This makes Blas a category\r\n4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has slowed a little in forward speed, and the\r\nlatest initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt.  The models are in\r\nvery good agreement for the next 3 days or so in showing Blas\r\ncontinuing westward to west-northwestward on the southwest side of a\r\nmid-level ridge centered over Mexico and the eastern Pacific Ocean.\r\nAfter that time, however, the model solutions diverge with the bulk\r\nof the guidance showing a northwestward motion due to the cyclone\r\ninteracting with a cut-off low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.\r\nThe ECMWF model has a notably different solution showing little\r\ninvolvement with the cut-off low, which results in Blas continuing\r\nwestward. No significant changes were made to the previous\r\nprediction and this track forecast lies close to a consensus of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models. It should be noted that there is low\r\nconfidence at the latter forecast points.\r\n\r\nBlas still has another 12-18 hours of favorable conditions for\r\nstrengthening.  Beyond that time, the cyclone is expected to move\r\nover cool water and into a progressively drier air mass.  These\r\nconditions should end the strengthening phase and cause a steady\r\nweakening trend.  The official NHC intensity forecast lies at the\r\nupper end the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line\r\nwith the intensity model consensus from 36-120 h.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 14.4N 121.7W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 14.8N 123.4W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 15.4N 125.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 16.0N 127.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 16.6N 129.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 18.2N 132.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 20.2N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  11/0000Z 21.6N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Blas has degraded since the previous\r\nadvisory, as the convective ring surrounding the eye had warmed and\r\nshrunk.  The eye, however, remains distinct in infrared imagery. The\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt, which is a little\r\nabove a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  Sea surface temperatures gradually cool along the forecast\r\ntrack, which should result in weakening, albeit at a slow pace\r\nduring the first day or so.  After 24 hours the rate of weakening\r\nshould increase as SSTs fall below 27C.  Blas is expected to become\r\na post-tropical cyclone in about 4 days and a remnant low by day 5.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast is close to or a little above the\r\nlatest LGEM and IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/10, as Blas has begun to gain\r\nsome latitude.  Blas should move west-northwestward for the next 48\r\nhours while being steered around the southwestern periphery of a\r\nmid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  After that time the model\r\nspread increases.  The GFS based guidance, including the HWRF and\r\nGFDL, shows Blas turning northwestward late in the period as it\r\ninteracts with an upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.\r\nThe ECMWF continues to show less interaction between Blas and the\r\nupper-level low and has the cyclone turning westward at days 4-5.\r\nGiven the continued spread in the guidance, the NHC track forecast\r\nwill stay in the middle of the two extremes and shows a\r\nnorthwestward to west-northwestward motion at days 4-5.  This\r\nforecast is a little south of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.  Given\r\nthe uncertainty, there is low confidence in the details of the track\r\nforecast late in the period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 14.7N 122.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 15.1N 124.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 15.7N 126.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 16.3N 128.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 16.9N 129.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 18.8N 132.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 21.0N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  11/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe overall satellite appearance of Blas has changed little since\r\nearly this morning.  Blas has characteristics of an annular\r\nhurricane with a large 25 to 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by a\r\nsymmetric convective ring with little outer banding features.  The\r\ninitial intensity remains 110 kt, and is a blend of the various\r\nobjective and subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates.\r\nBlas is currently in a low shear environment and over SSTs of 27-28\r\ndegrees Celsius.  Although the shear is forecast to remain low for\r\nthe next several days, decreasing sea surface temperatures along the\r\nforecast track should result in gradual weakening of the hurricane\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, Blas will be\r\nmoving over SSTs below 26C which should cause a faster rate of\r\nweakening, and the cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in\r\nabout 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and lies between the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nBlas is moving west-northwestward or 285 degrees at 10 kt, and\r\nshould continue on this general motion during the next 36 to 48\r\nhours while it moves around the southwestern portion of a mid-level\r\nridge over northern Mexico.  By 72 hours, the model guidance begins\r\nto diverge with the GFS, HWRF, GFDL, and GFS ensemble mean taking\r\nBlas northwestward around the eastern portion of a large mid- to\r\nupper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii.  The ECMWF and UKMET\r\nmodels show a more westward track, with less interaction between the\r\nupper-low and the hurricane.  This appears to be the result of the\r\nsize, location, and orientation of the upper-low in the various\r\nmodels. Given the large spread in the guidance, there is low\r\nconfidence in the the track forecast late in the period, and the NHC\r\nforecast track remains near the GFS/ECMWF consensus at days 3-5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 15.0N 123.6W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 15.4N 125.2W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 16.0N 127.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 16.6N 128.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 17.5N 130.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 19.6N 133.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 21.8N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  11/1200Z 22.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016\r\n\r\nBlas has a very impressive satellite presentation this afternoon.\r\nThe hurricane has a large, distinct eye in visible satellite\r\nimages that is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep\r\nconvection.  Dvorak T-numbers are virtually unchanged since this\r\nmorning so the initial intensity of 110 kt has been maintained.\r\nThe hurricane is expected to begin to weaken tonight as it moves\r\nover gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures.  Blas should\r\ncross the 26C isotherm in about 24 hours, which is expected to cause\r\na faster rate of decay.  The cyclone is forecast to become\r\npost-tropical in about 96 hours, and weaken to a remnant low by day\r\n5.  The NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nguidance and close to the multi-model intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 285/10 kt. Blas should continue moving\r\nwest-northwestward during the next day or so while it moves around\r\nthe southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico.\r\nAfter that time, the hurricane is expected to turn northwestward\r\nbetween the western portion of the ridge and a large mid- to\r\nupper-level low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Islands. The\r\nspread of the guidance remains fairly large at 72 hours and beyond,\r\nhowever, the models have moved a little closer together with the\r\nGFS-based guidance shifting southward while the ECMWF has nudged\r\nnorthward.  As a result, little change has been made to the NHC\r\ntrack prediction, which lies closest to the GFS/ECMWF (GFEX)\r\nconsensus aid.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 15.2N 124.7W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 15.7N 126.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 16.2N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 18.0N 131.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 20.2N 134.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 21.8N 137.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  11/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Blas remains quite impressive. The eye\r\nof the hurricane is about 20-25 n mi wide with evidence of\r\nmesovorticies within it.  The convective structure has changed\r\nlittle throughout the day and remains fairly symmetric around the\r\ncenter.  A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB,\r\nSAB, and the automated technique from CIMSS at the University of\r\nWisconsin suggest that the intensity of Blas is holding steady at\r\naround 110 kt.\r\n\r\nThe major hurricane is not far away from cool water, and it\r\nwill likely be crossing the 26 C isotherm in about 12 hours.\r\nThese anticipated unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a\r\nprogressively more stable air mass should promote a steady\r\nweakening trend during the next several days.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous one and is fairly close to the\r\nintensity model consensus.  The system is forecast to become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone in about 4 days when sea surface temperatures\r\nbeneath the cyclone will likely be around 24 C.\r\n\r\nBlas is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt on the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level ridge.  This general\r\nmotion should continue for the next couple of days as the ridge\r\nremains the primary steering influence.  Beyond that time, the\r\nforecast track is less certain as the model spread remains quite\r\nlarge with the GFS-based guidance showing a northwestward motion\r\naround the east side of a mid- to upper-level low northeast of\r\nthe Hawaiian Islands.  Conversely, the ECMWF and UKMET models show\r\nless interaction with the upper low, resulting in a more westward\r\ntrack.  The NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope and is in best agreement with the consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 15.7N 125.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 16.1N 126.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 16.7N 128.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 17.5N 129.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 18.7N 131.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 20.8N 134.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 22.1N 138.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  12/0000Z 22.2N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nBlas continues to maintain an impressive satellite presentation,\r\nwith a distinct 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of cold\r\nconvective tops.  Overall, the cyclone has been steady-state for\r\nthe last 24 hours or so, consistent with some annular hurricane\r\ncharacteristics such as minimal convective banding and a large eye.\r\nThe initial intensity remains 110 kt based on the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications of T5.5/6.0 from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane will be moving over cooler waters and into a more\r\nstable atmospheric environment during the next 12 to 24 hours, which\r\nshould result in the onset of weakening.  Weakening should continue\r\nafter that time, with Blas expected to move over SSTs of about 24C\r\nin 48 hours.  Deep convection is expected to dissipate late in the\r\nperiod, and Blas should become post-tropical in 4 days, or perhaps a\r\nbit sooner.  The official forecast is close to the latest IVCN\r\nintensity consensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/09, as Blas continues to be\r\nsteered around the southwestern periphery of a distant mid-level\r\nridge centered over northern Mexico.  The hurricane is forecast to\r\nturn northwestward in 24-36 hours as it reaches the western edge of\r\nthe ridge, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this\r\nscenario.  Through 48 hours the NHC track has been shifted a bit\r\nnorth of the previous one following the latest trend in the\r\nguidance.  Afterward, most of the guidance shows a continued\r\nwest-northwestward or northwestward motion through 72 hours as Blas\r\ninteracts with an upper-level closed low northeast of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands, followed by the shallow post-tropical Blas turning\r\nwestward.  The ECMWF continues to show less interaction with the\r\nupper-level low, and turns Blas westward and west-southwestward at\r\ndays 4 and 5.  Compared to 24 hours ago, the GFS-based guidance has\r\nshifted southward and the ECMWF has trended a bit northward,\r\nsuggesting that a consensus approach is still the best solution. The\r\nnew NHC track at days 3 through 5 is close to the previous one and\r\nnear the middle of the guidance envelope.  This track is a little\r\nsouth of the latest multi-model consensus but well north of the\r\nECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 15.9N 126.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 16.4N 127.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 17.2N 129.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 18.3N 130.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 19.5N 131.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 21.5N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/0600Z 22.0N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that Blas is beginning to weaken.  The\r\neye has become a little less distinct this morning, and the\r\nsurrounding ring of deep convection has warmed over the\r\nnorthwestern portion of the circulation.  A blend of the various\r\nDvorak T- and CI-numbers from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS yields an\r\ninitial wind speed of 105 kt. Blas is currently moving over\r\ngradually decreasing SSTs, which should result in continued\r\nweakening, however, given the annular hurricane characteristics of\r\nBlas the rate of weakening is expected to be gradual today.  A more\r\nrapid spin down should begin tonight or Friday when Blas moves over\r\neven cooler water and into a more stable environment.  The hurricane\r\nis forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and weaken to\r\na remnant low by day 5.\r\n\r\nBlas is moving west-northwestward or 290/9.  The hurricane is\r\nexpected to continue moving west-northwestward today, but is\r\nforecast to turn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge\r\nover northern Mexico and a mid-/upper-level low to the northeast of\r\nthe Hawaiian Islands.  The track guidance has come into better\r\nagreement through this time period, and the NHC forecast is near\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope through 72 hours.  After Blas\r\nweakens and becomes a shallower system, the ECMWF takes the cyclone\r\nwest-southwestward while the remainder of the guidance shows a more\r\nwestward track. The NHC forecast favors the latter scenario and\r\nremains north of the ECMWF solution at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 16.2N 127.1W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 16.8N 128.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 17.7N 129.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 18.9N 131.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 20.1N 132.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 21.9N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 22.0N 139.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/1200Z 22.0N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Blas has become cloud filled in visible satellite imagery\r\ntoday, but the convective ring surrounding the center has changed\r\nlittle since this morning.  Recent microwave imagery indicates that\r\nthe southwestern portion of the eyewall has eroded somewhat.\r\nAlthough the subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates have not\r\nchanged much since 1200 UTC, the objective T-numbers have decreased\r\nand the initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt.  Blas will be\r\nmoving over cooler water and into a more stable environment during\r\nthe next several days.  This should result in a faster rate of\r\nweakening and Blas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in\r\nabout 36 hours, and become post-tropical in about 72 hours.  The\r\nupdated NHC intensity forecast is between the SHIPS/LGEM guidance\r\nand close to the multi-model intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nBlas continues to move west-northwestward or 290/9.  The track\r\nforecast reasoning remains unchanged.  The hurricane is expected to\r\nturn northwestward on Friday between a mid-level ridge over northern\r\nMexico and a mid- to upper-level low to the northeast of the\r\nHawaiian Islands.  In 2 to 3 days, a weaker and more shallow Blas\r\nshould turn westward in the low-level easterly flow.  The GFS and\r\nECMWF continue to converge on this solution, and the updated NHC\r\ntrack is near a consensus of those models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 16.6N 127.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 17.1N 128.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 18.2N 130.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 19.5N 131.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 20.9N 132.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 22.2N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 22.2N 140.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  12/1800Z 21.8N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye feature has become less discernible in enhanced\r\ninfrared imagery this evening, and the inner core cloud top\r\ntemperatures have warmed considerably.  A compromise of all\r\navailable subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nyields an initial intensity of 95 kt.  Blas is expected to\r\naccelerate its spin down as the cyclone continues to traverse a\r\nrather sharp sea surface temperature gradient and reaches sub-24C\r\nwaters by the 36 hour period.  Blas is forecast to weaken to\r\na tropical storm by that time, and ultimately become a remnant low\r\nin 3 days, or earlier.  The official forecast intensity is\r\nbasically an update of the previous advisory and is close to the\r\nFlorida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/8, within the\r\nsouthwestern peripheral steering flow of a mid-level ridge\r\noriginating over eastern Mexico.  Large-scale models all show the\r\ncyclone gradually turning northwestward in 12 hours as Blas\r\nenters a growing weakness produced by a large cut-off low northeast\r\nof the Hawaiian Islands.  As the weakening trend accelerates and\r\nBlas becomes a vertically shallower system, the post-tropical\r\nremnant low is expected to turn westward in the easterly flow of the\r\ntrades.  The NHC forecast is based on a blend of the previous\r\nforecast and a consensus of the ECMWF and GFS (GFEX).\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 16.9N 128.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 17.6N 129.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 18.8N 131.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 20.2N 132.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 21.5N 133.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 22.5N 137.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 22.3N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0000Z 21.7N 146.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Blas is no longer apparent in infrared imagery, but cold\r\ncloud tops persist in a CDO over the center.  The initial intensity\r\nis lowered to 90 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak estimates.  Rapid weakening is expected during the\r\nnext 48 hours as Blas moves over much cooler waters and into a drier\r\nand more stable airmass, and the NHC forecast during this time is\r\nclose to the latest LGEM guidance.  Blas is expected to become\r\npost-tropical by 48 hours and then continue a slow spin down through\r\nthe remainder of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/09, as Blas is beginning to gain\r\nsome latitude as it moves around the southwestern edge of a\r\nsubtropical ridge centered well to the east over Mexico.  The track\r\nmodel guidance shows Blas turning northwestward between 12 to 36 h\r\nas it moves into a weakness ahead of a large upper-level low\r\nnortheast of the Hawaiian Islands.  After that time a weakening Blas\r\nshould turn westward and then west-southwestward under the influence\r\nof the low-level trade wind flow.  The new NHC forecast is a bit\r\nnorth of the previous one through 48 hours following the latest\r\nguidance trend.  Late in the period the guidance has shifted\r\nsouthward, and the new NHC track is south of the previous one.\r\nThis forecast is little south of the latest GFS track and ends up a\r\nbit north of the multi-model consensus by day 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial and forecast wind radii were adjusted based on a pair\r\nof timely ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes over Blas between 0530 and 0630\r\nUTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 17.4N 129.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 18.3N 130.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 21.8N 134.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 22.0N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0600Z 20.0N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nDespite being over cool water, the convection associated with\r\nBlas remains deep with cloud tops below -70C. Recent microwave\r\ndata show that the eye of Blas is still intact and it has\r\noccasionally been evident in infrared satellite imagery this\r\nmorning.  Subjective and objective Dvorak T-numbers are gradually\r\ndecreasing and a blend of the latest estimates yields an initial\r\nwind speed of 85 kt.  The hurricane will be moving over waters\r\nbelow 24C and into a more stable atmospheric environment during the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours.  This is expected to cause rapid weakening and\r\nBlas is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early Saturday,\r\nand become post-tropical in about 48 hours.\r\n\r\nBlas is still moving west-northwestward or 300/9 kt.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to turn northwestward very soon between a mid-level ridge\r\nextending westward off the coast of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level\r\nlow northeast of Hawaii.  As Blas weakens and becomes a more\r\nvertically shallow system, it should turn back westward, then\r\nwest-southwestward in the low level trade wind flow in 48 to 72\r\nhours.  The bulk of the track guidance has shifted a bit southward\r\nat 48 hours and beyond, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted in\r\nthat direction.  The updated track is near the center of the model\r\nenvelope through 72 hours, but is north of the multi-model consensus\r\nafter that time out of respect for the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and\r\ncontinuity with the previous NHC track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 17.8N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 19.0N 130.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 20.3N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 21.3N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 21.7N 135.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 20.3N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1200Z 19.5N 147.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nCool waters are taking a toll on Blas.  The satellite presentation\r\nof the hurricane has degraded since this morning as the convective\r\ncloud tops have warmed and steadily decreased in coverage. Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates continue to decrease and the initial wind speed\r\nhas been reduced to 75 kt, which is blend of the latest subjective\r\nT- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The hurricane should continue\r\nto quickly weaken while it moves over water below 24C and into a\r\nmore stable environment during the next several days.  The latest\r\nintensity forecast is close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, and calls\r\nfor Blas to weaken to a tropical storm tonight, and become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone in about 36 hours.\r\n\r\nRecent center fixes show that Blas has turned northwestward.  The\r\ncyclone should continue moving northwestward during the next day or\r\nso into a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by a large mid-\r\nto upper-level low to the northeast of Hawaii.  By Sunday, the\r\npost-tropical cyclone is forecast to turn back westward in the\r\nlow-level easterly flow.  The guidance is in good agreement on this\r\nscenario and the updated track forecast is essentially an update of\r\nthe previous NHC advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial wind radii have been adjusted based on a recent ASCAT\r\npass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 18.5N 130.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 19.7N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 21.0N 132.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 21.8N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 22.0N 136.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 21.5N 140.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 20.5N 144.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Blas","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nBlas has continued to move over increasingly cooler waters, and\r\nalthough the convection has been on a general weakening trend, the\r\nhurricane still has a vigorous circulation as indicated by ASCAT\r\nearlier today.  A blend of subjective and objective Dvorak numbers\r\nfrom all agencies supports an initial intensity of 70 kt. In\r\naddition to the effect of cooler waters, the shear is forecast to\r\nincrease. Recent microwave imagery suggests that the low-level\r\ncenter is south of the convection, indicating that the shear is\r\nalready increasing.  These factors should result in faster\r\nweakening, and Blas is expected to become a remnant low by Sunday or\r\nsooner. In fact, SHIPS and LGEM basically dissipate the cyclone\r\nin 48 hours or so.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at about\r\n10 kt around the southwestern periphery of the Pacific subtropical\r\nridge, and this general track is forecast to continue for a day or\r\nso. In about 36 hours or less, Blas should have become a shallow\r\nsystem and will likely be steered westward and west-southwestward by\r\nthe low-level trade winds. Most of the models have been fairly\r\nconsistent with this scenario for a while, and there are no obvious\r\nreasons to vary from earlier NHC forecasts.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 19.2N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 20.2N 132.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 21.3N 133.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 21.8N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 21.7N 137.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 21.0N 141.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 20.0N 145.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nBlas continues to gradually weaken due to cool SSTs and increasing\r\nshear.  Microwave imagery indicates that the low-level center is\r\ndisplaced 20 to 30 miles to the south of the mid-level center\r\napparent in geostationary imagery.  Dvorak classifications were\r\nT4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, and the initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 60 kt based on a blend of these data.  Quick\r\nweakening is forecast to continue while Blas moves over SSTs below\r\n24C and southwesterly shear increases.  Blas is forecast to become a\r\nremnant low in 36 hours and dissipate by day 5, and the new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the latest IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe above-mentioned microwave imagery showed that the low-level\r\ncenter was located a little south of previous estimates, and the\r\nadjusted best track yields an initial motion estimate of 310/08.\r\nThe track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Blas should\r\ncontinue west-northwestward for the next 24 hours and then turn\r\nwestward and eventually west-southwestward as the remnant low is\r\nsteered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is a\r\nlittle south of the previous through 36 hours given the initial\r\nposition adjustment, and is close to the previous advisory after\r\nthat time.  This forecast is close to the multi-model consensus\r\nthrough much of the period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 19.5N 131.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 20.5N 132.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 21.3N 134.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 21.6N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 21.5N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 20.0N 147.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Blas continues to weaken.  The\r\nassociated deep convection has been shrinking in coverage and\r\ngradually losing organization during the last several hours.\r\nAccordingly, the Dvorak T-numbers are falling and a blend of the\r\nlatest estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at\r\nthe University of Wisconsin suggest that the initial intensity has\r\ndecreased to near 50 kt.  Blas is currently over cool 24 C waters\r\nand embedded in a fairly stable air mass.  These unfavorable\r\nconditions combined with a notable increase in southwesterly wind\r\nshear during the next couple of days should allow the weakening\r\ntrend to continue.  Blas is forecast to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow in 24 to 36 hours and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 9 kt located\r\non the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over\r\nnorthwestern Mexico.  A gradual turn to the west is expected over\r\nthe next day or two while the cyclone becomes shallower and is\r\nsteered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one and lies closest to the\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 20.1N 132.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 20.8N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 21.3N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 21.5N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 21.2N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 20.5N 144.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 19.8N 148.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nBlas continues to decay.  The intensity and coverage of the\r\nassociated deep convection has been shrinking throughout the day,\r\nand the remaining cold cloud tops are mainly confined to the\r\nnorthwestern portion of the circulation.  The Dvorak T-numbers\r\nare falling, and a blend of the latest classifications support\r\nlowering the initial intensity to 40 kt.  The storm is currently\r\nover cool 24 C waters and embedded in a dry air mass.  These\r\nconditions combined with an increase in southwesterly shear should\r\ncause the system to degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday.  The\r\nglobal models show the remnant low dissipating in about 4 days, and\r\nthat is reflected in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nThe weakening system is still moving northwestward at about 10 kt.\r\nA turn toward the west is predicted over the next day or so when\r\nBlas becomes an even shallower system and is steered by the\r\nlow-level trade wind flow.  The NHC official track forecast has\r\nbeen adjusted a little to the south of the previous one to come into\r\nbetter agreement with the latest guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 20.8N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 21.1N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 21.2N 136.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 21.0N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 20.6N 141.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 19.5N 145.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Blas","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has degraded significantly tonight, and the\r\ndeep convection has practically vanished. However, given the\r\nvigorous circulation still associated with Blas, it is estimated\r\nthat the winds are 35 kt. Due to cold waters and high shear, global\r\nmodels and the intensity guidance weaken the cyclone fast. On this\r\nbasis, the NHC forecast calls for Blas to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow in 24 hours or less.\r\n\r\nBlas' circulation is moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 10\r\nkt. Now that the cyclone is quickly becoming a shallow system, it is\r\nforecast to be steered westward or west-southwestward by the\r\nlow-level flow until dissipation in a couple of days. Blas could\r\nstill produce sporadic bursts of convection in the next day or two.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 21.2N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 21.5N 136.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 21.5N 138.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 20.5N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Blas","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016\r\n\r\nBlas has been void of organized deep convection since about 00Z,\r\nand convection is unlikely to return given that the cyclone is\r\nmoving over SSTs less than 24C.  The initial intensity is lowered to\r\n30 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Blas should\r\nweaken to a remnant low later today and the cyclone is expected to\r\nopen up into a trough after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nMicrowave fixes indicate that Blas is located a bit south of\r\nprevious estimates and the latest geostationary fixes, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 280/10.  The shallow cyclone is expected\r\nto gradually turn west-southwestward under the influence of the\r\nlow-level trade wind flow before dissipation.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is a little south of the previous one given the initial\r\nposition and a southward trend in the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 21.2N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 21.3N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 21.0N 138.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 20.5N 141.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 20.0N 143.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Blas","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP032016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Blas has been absent for more than\r\n12 hours, and significant convection is unlikely to return since the\r\ncyclone is over 24 C waters and embedded in a stable air mass.\r\nTherefore, Blas is now declared a remnant low, and this is the last\r\nadvisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. The\r\ninitial intensity of 30 kt is based on recent scatterometer data.\r\n\r\nThe remnant low is moving westward at about 9 kt within the\r\nlow-level trade wind flow.  A westward to west-southwestward motion\r\nat about the same forward speed is expected during the next couple\r\nof days while the low gradually weakens.  Dissipation is forecast to\r\noccur in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nEven though Blas is no longer a tropical cyclone, altimeter data\r\nfrom a few hours ago still indicated an area of seas higher than 12\r\nft near the system. For additional information, please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header\r\nNFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 21.3N 136.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 21.3N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 21.1N 140.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 20.7N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 20.3N 144.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well\r\nsouthwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation\r\nand sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical\r\ndepression.  Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression\r\nFour-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt.  A weak\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a\r\nless than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days,\r\nfollowed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5.  The track\r\nforecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the\r\ntrack forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an\r\nenvironment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days.\r\nHowever, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a\r\ncold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours.  This is\r\nexpected to allow only slow intensification during that time.\r\nSubsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and\r\nstrengthen at a faster rate.  The intensity forecast is in best\r\nagreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to\r\nbecome a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about\r\n96 hours.  An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens\r\nfaster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear\r\nenvironment.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n900 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe depression is not in a hurry to intensify tonight. The\r\ncirculation is better defined, and although the convection is not\r\nvery deep at this time, it is acquiring a comma-shape form, which\r\nsuggests an increase in the convective pattern organization.  The\r\ncenter appears to be located on the nose of the comma, but is not\r\nembedded within the thunderstorm activity. T-numbers from SAB, TAFB\r\nand ADTs from CIMSS are near 2.0 on the Dvorak scale. On this\r\nbasis, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe depression is embedded within a very favorable environment of\r\nlow shear for intensification, and only the upwelling left by strong\r\nHurricane Blas could cause a delay in the intensification process.\r\nMost of the intensity guidance shows a substantial increase in the\r\nwinds by the end of the forecast period and in fact, the SHIPS model\r\nincreases the winds to above 100 kt. The NHC forecast follows the\r\nmodel trend and makes the depression a hurricane in 3 days, but this\r\ncould happen earlier.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees\r\nat 7 kt. Most of the global models amplify a very strong and nearly\r\nstationary subtropical ridge which extends from the United States\r\nwestward across the Pacific. This steering pattern will likely force\r\nthe cyclone to move westward and even south of due west for 3 to\r\n4 days. After that time the cyclone will begin to turn more to the\r\nwest-northwest around the southwestern periphery of the ridge. Most\r\nof the track models are in agreement with this solution, and the NHC\r\nforecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, but favoring the\r\nconsensus between the GFS and the ECMWF global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 12.4N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 12.5N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 12.5N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 12.5N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 12.5N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0000Z 12.5N 122.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  12/0000Z 14.5N 126.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n300 AM MDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Four-E has changed little overnight. A 0458Z\r\nASCAT-B overpass indicated a broad, weak inner-core wind field with\r\nthe low-level center located at or south of 12N latitude. However,\r\npassive microwave satellite data indicate a fairly well-developed\r\nmid-level circulation displaced more than 30 nmi north-northwest of\r\nthe low-level center due to southeasterly vertical wind shear. The\r\nASCAT data also indicated a couple of 35-kt surface wind vectors.\r\nHowever, convection near the center has noticeably weakened and\r\nbecome less organized since that pass, so the cyclone is being\r\nmaintained as a 30-kt depression, which is supported by a blend of\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is still 285/07 kt, based primarily on a\r\nblend of microwave and scatterometer fix positions of the low-level\r\nand mid-level circulation centers. Despite the difficulty in\r\nlocating the exact center of the depression, the NHC model guidance\r\nis in remarkably good agreement on the future track of the cyclone.\r\nThe strong subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is\r\nforecast to remain nearly stationary throughout the forecast period,\r\nand even amplify somewhat in 24-72 hours, driving the cyclone in a\r\ngeneral westward motion. After that time, the cyclone is expected to\r\nturn toward the west-northwest as the system moves around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of the ridge. The NHC official forecast track\r\nessentially lies down the middle of the guidance envelope, and\r\nclosely follows the multi-model consensus TVCE.\r\n\r\nThe depression is experiencing mid-level dry air entrainment and\r\nmodest mid-level shear conditions, which have combined to disrupt\r\nthe inner-core wind field somewhat. However, the overall environment\r\nis quite favorable for strengthening to occur, so once the\r\ninner-core region recovers later today, steady strengthening is\r\nexpected through 36 h. However, around 48 h or so, the cyclone is\r\nexpected to pass near or just south of a pronounced cold wake left\r\nbehind by Hurricane Blas when it traversed this same area a couple\r\nof days ago. This could produce a slightly more stable environment,\r\nso the intensification trend at that time is leveled off some. From\r\n72 hours and beyond, however, conditions become quite favorable\r\nfor at least steady strengthening, and some of the models are even\r\ncalling for the cyclone to become a major hurricane by 120 h. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and\r\nclosely follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models through 72\r\nhours, but is a little lower than those models on days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 12.6N 110.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 12.7N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 12.8N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 12.9N 114.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 13.1N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 14.0N 123.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  12/0600Z 15.6N 127.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n900 AM MDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Four-E has not improved in organization since\r\nthe last advisory.  A small cluster of deep convection is located\r\nnear the low-level center, but otherwise widespread showers and\r\nthunderstorms mainly within the eastern and southern portion of the\r\ncirculation are lacking banding characteristics.  The intensity\r\nremains 30 kt based on Current Intensity estimates of 2.0 from TAFB\r\nand SAB.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is still moving west-northwestward, or 285/7 kt.  A\r\nstrong subtropical ridge, which extends from northern Mexico\r\nwestward to near 130W, is expected to maintain its strength and\r\nremain stationary for at least the next 3 days.  This pattern is\r\nforecast to drive the depression almost due westward between 24\r\nand 72 hours.  By days 4 and 5, the ridge is expected to weaken a\r\nbit, which should allow the cyclone to gain some latitude and turn\r\nback toward the west-northwest.  The track models, particularly the\r\nGFS and ECMWF, are very tightly clustered, with those two models\r\nless than a degree apart at day 5.  The updated NHC track forecast\r\nwas nudged southward on days 4 and 5 to be closer to the GFS/ECMWF\r\nconsensus, but otherwise there is higher-than-normal confidence in\r\nthe track forecast for the entire 5-day period.\r\n\r\nThe key concern for the depression's intensity forecast is the cold\r\nwake left behind by Hurricane Blas.  Based on the latest available\r\ndaily global SST analyses, the waters ahead of the depression have\r\ncooled to 26.5 degrees Celsius or colder.  The official forecast\r\ntrack for the depression intersects and remains very close to Blas's\r\ntrack during the next 5 days, which would keep it over these\r\ncolder-than-normal waters for a significant amount of time.\r\nSince the SHIPS guidance utilizes a weekly SST analysis, which is\r\nshowing ocean surface temperatures about 2 degrees too warm,\r\nconfidence in its output is somewhat low at the moment.  Vertical\r\nshear and environmental moisture values appear conducive for\r\nstrengthening, so the NHC official intensity forecast still shows\r\nintensification, but at a slower rate than indicated by many of the\r\nintensity models.  The updated forecast is also a little lower than\r\nthe previous one, especially through 48 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 12.7N 110.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 13.0N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 13.2N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 13.2N 115.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 13.2N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 13.2N 120.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 14.0N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  12/1200Z 16.0N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n300 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nRecent ASCAT data indicate that the tropical depression has an\r\nelongated circulation and is still producing maximum winds around\r\n30 kt.  Although deep convection has been increasing in coverage\r\nduring the day, it is not all that organized and is primarily\r\nconfined to the eastern and southern semicircles.  In addition, dry\r\nair appears to be wrapping into the western part of the\r\ncirculation.  Since the cyclone's structure has not yet improved,\r\nand the system is about to move over the cold wake of Hurricane\r\nBlas, it may take a little more time before significant\r\nstrengthening can occur.  In fact, the GFS and ECMWF models, which\r\nshould have a good handle on the ambient environment, do not show\r\nsignificant deepening of the cyclone for another 48 hours or so.\r\nTherefore, the NHC official intensity forecast has been adjusted\r\ndownward during the first couple of days, with the depression\r\npossibly not becoming a tropical storm until tomorrow.  More\r\nsignificant strengthening is expected after 48 hours, but even that\r\ncould be tempered by interaction with Blas's cold wake.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is at the low end of the guidance through 48\r\nhours and then near the IVCN intensity consensus thereafter.\r\n\r\nThe scatterometer data showed that the low-level center is located\r\na little farther south than previously estimated, and the initial\r\nmotion is now 275/7 kt.  A strong mid-tropospheric ridge extending\r\nwestward from northern Mexico is forecast to keep the cyclone on a\r\nwestward course for the next 3 days.  By days 4 and 5, the ridge is\r\nexpected to weaken a bit, which will allow the cyclone to turn\r\nwest-northwestward.  The NHC official track forecast was shifted\r\nslightly southward during the first three days to account for the\r\nupdated initial position.  Otherwise, the guidance remains tightly\r\nclustered, and there is high confidence in the track forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 12.4N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 12.6N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 12.9N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 13.0N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 13.1N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 12.9N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 14.0N 125.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  12/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n900 PM MDT THU JUL 07 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicate that the low-level circulation associated\r\nwith the depression has become larger and better defined, however\r\nthe convection near the center is minimal. Most of the thunderstorm\r\nactivity is occurring in bands well to the north and southeast of\r\nthe center. There are no reasons to change the initial intensity of\r\n30 kt, and this estimate is probably on the high side since the\r\nDvorak T-numbers are steady or lower tonight.\r\n\r\nThe depression has failed to strengthen likely due to the upwelling\r\nleft by Hurricane Blas, and this possibility has been taken into\r\nconsideration in previous NHC forecasts. Since most of the other\r\nenvironmental parameters are favorable for intensification, the NHC\r\nforecast still calls for such a process to begin on Friday. More\r\nsignificant strengthening is anticipated beyond 48 hours, although\r\nthe NHC forecast is not as aggressive as the SHIPS models.\r\n\r\nThe overall circulation has been moving very little, and in fact it\r\nhas been drifting westward at only 2 kt. This could be the result\r\nof the center rotating around a larger circulation. Nevertheless,\r\nthe cyclone is south of a strong subtropical ridge which is forecast\r\nto amplify by most of the global models. This forecast pattern\r\nfavors a faster westward motion for the next 3 to 4 days with a\r\ngradual turn to the west-northwest as the system reaches the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the ridge.  The NHC forecast is not very\r\ndifferent from the previous one, and deviates very little from the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 12.3N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 12.5N 112.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 12.8N 114.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 12.9N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 13.0N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 13.0N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 14.0N 126.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  13/0000Z 16.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n300 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression is showing signs of becoming\r\nbetter organized.  There has been an increase in central convection\r\nnear the estimated center location and in convective banding to the\r\nnorth and southeast of the center.  The initial intensity remains 30\r\nkt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates.\r\nSlow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, while the\r\ncyclone moves over a cool patch of SSTs in the wake of Hurricane\r\nBlas.  After that time, the intensification rate should increase as\r\nthe cyclone will be moving over warm SSTs in a low shear\r\nenvironment.  In 4 to 5 days, the shear is expected to increase and\r\nSSTs cool along the track, which should result in weakening.  The\r\nnew NHC intensity forecast is a little below the consensus aid\r\nIVCN during the first 24 hours and then close to the consensus\r\nthrough 48 hours.  Beyond that time the official forecast is higher\r\nthan the consensus but not as aggressive as the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 275/05 given the\r\nuncertainty in the exact center location.  The cyclone should be\r\nsteered more quickly westward by a building subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth through the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time, a west-\r\nnorthwestward turn is forecast as the system reaches the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the ridge. The guidance has shifted northward\r\nthis cycle in the short term, in particular the ECMWF, which is now\r\nwell north of the rest of the models through 48 hours.  The new NHC\r\ntrack has been adjusted to the north this cycle, but still lies a\r\nlittle south of the multi-model consensus.  Confidence in the\r\ndetails of the track forecast is lower than normal given that the\r\nsystem is still organizing.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 12.5N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 12.7N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 13.0N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 13.2N 116.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 13.5N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 14.2N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  12/0600Z 15.7N 127.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  13/0600Z 17.3N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n900 AM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical depression has become better\r\norganized, with first-light visible imagery showing a ragged central\r\ndense overcast surrounded by a complex of outer bands.  Subjective\r\nDvorak intensity estimates are 30-35 kt, while AMSU and Advanced\r\nDvorak technique estimates from CIMSS are near 50 kt.  Based on\r\nthis, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Celia with winds\r\nof 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/6.  There is little change from the\r\nforecast philosophy from the previous advisory.  Celia should be\r\nsteered westward with an increase in forward speed by a building\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north through the next 2 to 3 days.  After\r\nthat time, a west-northwestward turn is forecast as the system\r\nnears the southwestern edge of the ridge.  The guidance has nudged\r\na little to the north for the first 36 hours or so, and thus this\r\npart of the forecast track is also adjusted northward.  Otherwise,\r\nthe track is an update of the previous NHC advisory.\r\n\r\nCelia is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind\r\nshear for the next 3-4 days.  However, during the next 24-36 hours\r\nthe cyclone will pass near or over an area of cooler sea surface\r\ntemperatures left in the wake of Hurricane Blas.  This should slow\r\nintensification during this time.  The storm is expected to reach\r\nwarmer water from 36-96 hours and significant strengthening is\r\nexpected at that time.  The intensity forecast calls for a peak\r\nintensity of 90 kt, which is below that forecast by the SHIPS and\r\nLGEM models.  From 96-120 hours, Celia should again encounter cooler\r\nsea surface temperatures, which should cause the cyclone to weaken.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 12.6N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 12.9N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 13.3N 116.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 13.5N 118.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 13.8N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 14.5N 125.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1200Z 16.0N 129.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  13/1200Z 17.5N 133.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n300 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Celia is currently comprised of a complex of\r\ncurved convective bands around a small area of central convection,\r\nwhich is less widespread than 6 hours ago.  Subjective Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30-35 kt, while AMSU,\r\nAdvanced Dvorak Technique estimates, and satellite consensus\r\nestimates from CIMSS range from 40-55 kt.  The initial intensity\r\nremains 40 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe center of Celia has jogged northward during the past few hours,\r\nand the initial motion is now 290/5.  Other than that, the forecast\r\ntrack and philosophy have changed little since the last advisory.\r\nCelia should turn westward during the next 12 hours due to a\r\nbuilding subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone, and it\r\nsubsequently should continue westward with an increase in forward\r\nspeed through the next 2 to 3 days.  After that time, a\r\nwest-northwestward turn is forecast as the system nears the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the ridge.  The guidance is tightly clustered\r\nin support of this scenario, with no significant outliers in the\r\nreliable dynamical models or the consensus models.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is nudged a little to the north of the previous track for the\r\nfirst 72 hours or so based on the current position and motion. After\r\nthat, it is similar to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nCelia is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind\r\nshear for the next 4-5 days.  However, during the next 24 hours the\r\ncyclone will pass near or over an area of cooler sea surface\r\ntemperatures left in the wake of Hurricane Blas.  This should slow\r\nintensification, and the intensity forecast at 24 hours is thus\r\nlower than most of the guidance.  From 24-72 hours, the storm is\r\nexpected to reach warmer water, and significant strengthening is\r\nlikely due to the favorable upper-level winds. The intensity\r\nforecast now calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt at 72 hours, which\r\nis in best agreement with the LGEM model.  From 72-120 hours, Celia\r\nshould again encounter cooler sea surface temperatures, which should\r\ncause the cyclone to weaken.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/2100Z 13.0N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 13.3N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 13.7N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 14.0N 119.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 14.2N 121.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 15.0N 126.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 96H  12/1800Z 16.5N 130.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n120H  13/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n900 PM MDT FRI JUL 08 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery shows that Celia has an expansive cloud\r\nshield, with a compact CDO feature and multiple elongated cloud\r\nbands.  However, deep convection is disjointed and fairly limited\r\nnear the low-level center.  Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB are unchanged from six hours ago, and the CIMSS ADT\r\nestimate has actually decreased during that time.  Therefore, the\r\ninitial intensity is left at 40 kt.\r\n\r\nCelia's center temporarily moved northward earlier today, but the\r\naverage motion over the past 12 hours is estimated to be\r\nnorthwestward, or 305/8 kt.  A subtropical ridge extending westward\r\nfrom northern Mexico should cause Celia to resume a west-\r\nnorthwestward to westward motion but at a faster forward speed\r\nthrough day 3.  The cyclone is expected to reach the southwestern\r\nperiphery of the ridge by day 4, which should cause Celia to turn\r\nnorthwestward by the end of the forecast period.  The track model\r\nspread is low, especially through day 3, and the NHC track forecast\r\nis very close to the various consensus models.  This updated\r\nforecast is a little north of the previous one during the first 24\r\nhours to account for Celia's recent northward jog.\r\n\r\nHigh-resolution microwave SST data indicate that Celia's center is\r\nnow moving over the coldest portion of Blas's cold wake, which could\r\nbe contributing to the relative lack of central deep convection.\r\nCelia will continue moving over the cold wake for another day or\r\nso, and only gradual strengthening is anticipated in the short\r\nterm.  Warmer waters and low shear should allow faster\r\nintensification to begin in 36-48 hours, with Celia likely\r\nreaching its peak intensity in about 3 days.  Cooler waters should\r\nthen induce a gradual weakening trend on days 4 and 5.  In light of\r\nthe latest guidance, no significant changes were made to the\r\nprevious NHC intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 13.7N 114.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 14.2N 115.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 14.5N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 14.6N 120.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 14.7N 122.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0000Z 17.0N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  14/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nThe cool wake from Hurricane Blas continues to affect Celia.  The\r\nconvective pattern is quite ragged, with a small CDO feature but\r\nlittle in the way of convective banding.  The initial intensity is\r\nset to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective\r\nDvorak estimates.  Celia should begin moving over warmer waters\r\nduring the next 12 to 24 hours, which should allow for an increase\r\nin convective organization and some strengthening.  Celia is\r\nforecast to peak in about 72 hours and then move over cooler waters\r\nagain, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. The\r\nnew NHC intensity forecast is close to the latest SHIPS model and is\r\na bit above the latest intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/11, as Celia has accelerated\r\nsince the previous advisory.  A westward motion to the south of a\r\nbuilding subtropical ridge is expected to begin later today and\r\ncontinue through 48 hours.  After that time, the cyclone should\r\nreach the southwestern edge of the ridge and turn west-northwestward\r\nat a slightly slower speed.  The new NHC track forecast is close to\r\nthe previous one through 48 hours, but a little faster given the\r\nquicker initial motion.  At days 3 through 5 the NHC track has been\r\nshifted a little to the south of the previous one and lies slightly\r\nnorth of the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 14.2N 115.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 14.5N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 14.7N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 14.7N 122.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 14.8N 124.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0600Z 15.7N 128.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  13/0600Z 17.1N 131.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nThe center of Celia is moving over warmer water west of the cool\r\nwake of Hurricane Blas.  In response, the central dense overcast has\r\nbecome much better defined with cloud tops colder than -80C just\r\nsouth of the center.  In addition, recent microwave images suggest a\r\nsmall mid-level eye is forming under the overcast.  Subjective\r\nsatellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from SAB and 55 kt from\r\nTAFB, and there was a recent CIMMS AMSU estimate of 80 kt. The\r\ninitial intensity is increased to 50 kt, and this could be\r\nconservative.\r\n\r\nCelia has continued to accelerate and the initial motion is now\r\n280/13.  A westward motion south of a building subtropical ridge is\r\nexpected to continue for the next 48 hours or so, followed by a\r\nwest-northwestward motion as the storm approaches a break in the\r\nridge.  The guidance remains tightly clustered and the new forecast\r\ntrack is near the center of the guidance envelope near the various\r\nconsensus models.  The new track is a little faster than the\r\nprevious track based on current trends and the guidance.\r\n\r\nCelia should be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for\r\nthe next five days, so the intensity forecast is dependent mainly\r\non sea surface temperatures.  The cyclone is expected to move\r\nover SSTs near 28C for the next 48 hours or so, and steady to\r\npossibly rapid strengthening is expected.  After that, the SSTs\r\ngradually decrease along the forecast track until they are near 25C\r\nat 120 hours.  This should cause Celia to gradually weaken. The new\r\nintensity forecast shows a faster intensification than the previous\r\nforecast, with Celia becoming a hurricane in about 24 hours.  The\r\nforecast from 48-120 hours is unchanged from the previous forecast.\r\nOverall, the intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 14.4N 117.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 14.8N 119.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 14.8N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 14.8N 123.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 14.9N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1200Z 17.5N 133.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/1200Z 19.0N 137.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Celia currently features a small central dense\r\novercast with outer bands present in all quadrants except the\r\nnorth.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are now 55\r\nkt, and earlier AMSU estimates from CIMSS and CIRA were also near 55\r\nkt.  This value will be the initial intensity.  The cyclone\r\ncurrently has good cirrus outflow over the western semicircle.\r\n\r\nThe storm has moved due west for the past few hours.  However, the\r\nlonger-term motion is 275/12.  A westward motion south of the\r\nsubtropical ridge is expected to continue for the next 48 hours or\r\nso, followed by a west-northwestward motion as the storm approaches\r\na break in the ridge.  There has been little change in the guidance\r\nsince the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is an update\r\nof the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe short-term intensity forecast is tricky even though Celia is\r\nnow moving over increasing sea surface temperatures.  The Rapid\r\nIntensification Index of the SHIPS model indicates a 50 percent\r\nchance of 25-35 kt of strengthening during the next 24 hours, and\r\nthis is supported by the forecasts of the SHIPS model and the\r\nFlorida State Superensemble.  However, the lack of bands in the\r\nnorthern quadrant suggests that the storm is still struggling with\r\nstable air caused by the cold wake of Hurricane Blas, and it is\r\nunclear how long this will continue.  The intensity forecast is thus\r\nconservative in calling for 20 kt of intensification in 24 hours,\r\nfollowed by some additional strengthening to a peak intensity of 90\r\nkt by 48 hours. However, it would not be a surprise for Celia to\r\nbecome a major hurricane.  After 48 hours, Celia will gradually move\r\nover cooler water which should cause a gradual weakening.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 14.3N 117.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 14.4N 119.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 14.5N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 14.5N 124.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 14.8N 126.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 16.0N 130.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 18.0N 134.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 20.0N 138.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 09 2016\r\n\r\nCelia has changed very little since the last advisory.  A small\r\ncentral dense overcast persists over the low-level center, with an\r\nelongated convective band wrapping around the southern and western\r\nside of the circulation.  The initial intensity remains 55 kt based\r\non Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB.  Celia appears to\r\nhave escaped the coldest water of Hurricane Blas's wake and is now\r\nover sea surface temperatures warmer than 27 degrees Celsius.  In\r\naddition, vertical shear is very low and is expected to remain low\r\nfor the next 5 days.  Therefore, more significant strengthening\r\n(compared to the past few days) should begin soon and continue\r\nduring the next 2 to 3 days while the cyclone is over warm water.  A\r\ngradual weakening trend should occur on day 3 and beyond. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels and is very similar to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nCelia's initial motion is westward, or 275/10 kt.  A continued\r\nwestward motion is expected for the next 48 hours while the cyclone\r\nis located south of the subtropical ridge.  By day 3, Celia will be\r\nsituated along the southwestern periphery of the ridge and should\r\nturn west-northwestward and northwestward at the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The track guidance continues to be relatively stable and\r\ntightly clustered from cycle to cycle, and the new NHC track\r\nforecast is just an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z 14.5N 118.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z 14.5N 120.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 14.6N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 14.6N 125.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 15.0N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 16.7N 130.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 19.0N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 21.0N 138.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016\r\n\r\nThe intensity analysis of Celia is complicated tonight.  The\r\nsatellite presentation shows a small CDO feature near the center and\r\nconvective banding to the east and south of the center, which\r\nsupports Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.  However,\r\na pair of ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B passes between 0445Z and 0535Z showed\r\nwinds of only 35-40 kt.  In addition, recent microwave imagery shows\r\nthat the inner core is not very organized yet, especially in the low\r\nlevels.  Given the ASCAT data, the initial intensity has been\r\nconservatively lowered to 50 kt for this advisory.  The ASCAT data\r\nwere also used to adjust the initial 34-kt wind radii.\r\n\r\nCelia is still expected to strengthen during the next couple of days\r\nand become a hurricane, as the cyclone moves over SSTs of 27-28C.\r\nBeyond 48 hours, the SSTs cool along the forecast track, which has\r\nbeen adjusted a bit to the north of the previous advisory.  This\r\ntrack takes Celia over SSTs below 26C by day 3 and over SSTs around\r\n24C at days 4 and 5, which should result in weakening.  The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is lower than the previous one, but is above\r\nall the guidance through 48 hours out of respect to continuity.\r\nLate in the period the official forecast was also adjusted lower,\r\nbut is still above the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery and the above-mentioned ASCAT data indicate that\r\nCelia is located a bit north of previous estimates with an initial\r\nmotion of 280/10.  Celia is expected to move westward for the next\r\n24 hours to the south of a mid-level ridge.  By 48 hours the cyclone\r\nshould turn west-northwestward as a weakness develops in the ridge\r\naround 130W.  The ridge begins to rebuild back to the north of the\r\ncyclone at 120 h, which should cause Celia to turn back toward the\r\nwest.  The new NHC track forecast is north of the previous one\r\nthrough the forecast period, mainly due to the more northerly\r\ninitial position of the system.  This track is close to a blend of\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF models and is near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 14.8N 119.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 14.9N 121.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 17.5N 131.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 19.7N 135.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Celia has improved significantly since\r\nthe previous advisory, and a large, well-developed CDO feature is\r\nnow evident with overshooting cold tops of -80C to -85C having\r\ndeveloped near the center. The upper-level outflow pattern has also\r\nimproved and become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates\r\nrange from T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB to 61 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nand a 1020Z AMSU intensity of 64 kt, putting Celia right at the cusp\r\nof hurricane strength. The initial intensity is being held just\r\nbelow hurricane status at 60 kt based on the e-w elongation of the\r\ninner-core convection noted in the AMSU data.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/12 kt. There is no significant\r\nchange to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Celia is\r\nforecast to move westward for the next 24 h or so to the south of a\r\nstrong deep-layer subtropical ridge. By 36-48 h, Celia is expected\r\nto turn west-northwestward as a shortwave trough currently located\r\nalong 130W longitude moves eastward and weakens the ridge. By day 3,\r\nthe trough is forecast to weaken and lift out to the north, allowing\r\nthe ridge to re-strengthen and turn Celia back to a more westward\r\nmotion. The new official forecast track is essentially just an\r\nupdate of the previous advisory and lies close to the TCVE\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nBased on the overall improvement in the infrared satellite pattern,\r\nit appears that Celia is finally making the long-anticipated move\r\ntoward more significant intensification. The best conditions for\r\nstrengthening are expected to be during the next 24 h or so when\r\nSSTs are at or above 27C and the vertical shear remains low at 5 kt\r\nor less. By 36-48 h, cooling SSTs ahead of Celia are expected to\r\ninhibit the strengthening process, resulting in a leveling off of\r\nthe intensity forecast. By 72 h and beyond, ocean temperatures will\r\nbe cooling down to 24C-25C, but the vertical shear is forecast to\r\nremain low. As a result, slower than normal weakening is forecast on\r\ndays 3-5. The official intensity forecast is slightly higher than\r\nthe intensity consensus model IVCN, and closely follows a blend of\r\nthe SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical models intensity forecasts.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 14.8N 121.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 14.9N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 15.0N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 15.3N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 15.9N 129.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 17.9N 132.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 20.0N 136.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 21.0N 140.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016\r\n\r\nAfter an early morning burst of deep, cold-topped thunderstorms over\r\nthe center, dry air entrainment has once again taken its toll on the\r\ninner-core convective structure of Celia. The CDO has eroded due to\r\na narrow band of dry air wrapping all the way into the center, which\r\nis noted in both conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Celia\r\nhas now taken the appearance of a tropical cyclone with a banding\r\neye feature. Dvorak estimates are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and T4.0/65\r\nkt from SAB, and the consensus of various objective satellite\r\nintensity estimates is 70 kt. Based on these data, the initial\r\nintensity is set to 70 kt, making Celia the second hurricane of the\r\n2016 eastern North Pacific season. The 34- and 50-kt wind radii are\r\nbased on 1808Z ASCAT-B wind data.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 275/12 kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.\r\nCelia should move westward for the next 24 h along the southern\r\nperiphery of a strong deep-layer ridge, followed by turn to the\r\nwest-northwest on day 2 as a shortwave trough briefly weakens the\r\nridge. By day 3 and beyond, the ridge is forecast to re-strengthen\r\nand force Celia back on a westward track. The latest NHC model\r\nguidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so\r\nthe new forecast is basically just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory and lies close to the TCVE consensus track model.\r\n\r\nCelia still has another 24 h or so to strengthen while the vertical\r\nwind shear remains light and sea-surface temperatures are above\r\n26.5C. By 48 h, decreasing SSTs ahead of the hurricane should induce\r\ngradual weakening, but not as fast as normal due to the light shear\r\nconditions that are expected to continue through day 5. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast remains above the intensity consensus model IVCN,\r\nand continues to follows a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 15.0N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 15.1N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 15.3N 126.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 15.8N 128.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 16.6N 130.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 18.5N 133.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 20.2N 137.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 21.1N 142.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 10 2016\r\n\r\nCelia has well-defined curved banding features, but the convection\r\nis not very deep at this time.  A fairly symmetric upper-level\r\noutflow pattern is evident, consistent with a low-shear environment.\r\nThe Dvorak data T-number from TAFB was slightly lower and that from\r\nSAB was unchanged, and the current intensity estimate is kept at\r\n70 kt for this advisory.  Sea surface temperatures should be\r\nmarginally supportive for strengthening for another 24 hours or so,\r\nand thereafter slightly cooler waters are expected to cause a\r\nweakening trend to commence.  As noted in the earlier advisory the\r\nshear over the tropical cyclone is likely to remain low for the next\r\nseveral days, and this should keep the rate of weakening rather\r\nslow.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest\r\nDecay-SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThere has been no significant change to the motion, which is\r\nestimated to be 270/11 kt.  The track forecast seems to be fairly\r\nstraightforward and there is little change to the prognostic\r\nreasoning.  Celia will be nearing the western periphery of a\r\nmid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and this should cause the\r\nmotion to gradually bend toward the west-northwest during the next\r\ncouple of days.  Afterwards, the subtropical ridge rebuilds to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone resulting in a turn back toward the west by\r\nthe end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is very\r\nsimilar to that from the previous advisory, and is also close to\r\nthe dynamical model consensus.  This is between the latest GFS and\r\nECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 15.0N 123.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 15.1N 125.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 15.5N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 16.2N 129.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 17.0N 130.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 18.9N 134.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 20.7N 138.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 21.5N 143.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016\r\n\r\nCelia still has a somewhat ragged satellite appearance tonight.  The\r\ndeepest convection is located in a broken ring around a ragged\r\nintermittent eye and in a band well east of the center.  TAFB and\r\nSAB Dvorak estimates at 06Z were T4.5/77 kt, and the initial\r\nintensity is set to 75 kt for this advisory.  Additional slow\r\nstrengthening seems likely for the next day or so while Celia moves\r\nover SSTs above 26C.  After that time the waters will cool, which\r\nshould result in a slow weakening through the remainder of the\r\nforecast period since the shear will remain low.  The new NHC\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one, showing a peak of 90 kt in\r\nabout 24 h, and this is above all of the intensity guidance.  During\r\nthe weakening phase, the NHC forecast lies between the stronger\r\nSHIPS model and the weaker LGEM.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving westward at 11 kt.  A turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest is forecast in about 24 hours as Celia reaches the\r\nsouthwestern edge of a mid-level ridge.  By the end of the period,\r\nthe ridge should rebuild to the north, resulting in the track\r\nbending back toward the west.  Overall, the track model guidance is\r\nin good agreement on this scenario.  For this cycle, the NHC\r\nforecast has been adjusted a bit to the north, but lies south of the\r\nlatest TVCN multi-model consensus aid.\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT-B pass from around 0520Z was used to adjust the initial\r\n34-kt and 50-kt wind radii.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 15.0N 124.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 15.1N 126.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 15.7N 127.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 16.5N 129.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 17.5N 131.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 19.6N 135.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 21.5N 144.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 11 2016\r\n\r\nAfter developing what had been a decent looking eye with a diameter\r\nof about 20 nmi, dry air has once again penetrated into the\r\ninner-core region and has eroded most of the eyewall convection.\r\nSatellite current intensity estimates range from T4.5/77 kt from\r\nTAFB and SAB to as high as T5.4/100 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. Given the\r\nragged-appearing inner-core region in the last few images, the\r\nintensity is only raised to 80 kt for this advisory, which is\r\nconsistent with a 1200 UTC UW-CIMSS SATCON consensus of 82 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/11 kt. A westward motion is\r\nexpected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest late tonight as Celia begins to move into a\r\ndeveloping weakness in the subtropical ridge.  This weakness will be\r\ncreated by a narrow mid-level trough along 130W longitude that is\r\ndigging southward as noted in water vapor imagery. The shortwave\r\ntrough is forecast to weaken by 72 h and lift out to the north or\r\nnortheast, which will allow the ridge to rebuild and force Celia\r\nback on a more westward track on days 3-5. Similar to the previous\r\nadvisory, the NHC track model guidance remains in excellent\r\nagreement on this scenario and is tightly packed around the previous\r\nforecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is essentially\r\njust an extension of the previous advisory track, and lies just\r\nsouth of the TVCN consensus model.\r\n\r\nCelia likely only has another 12 hours or so to strengthen while the\r\nhurricane remains over SSTs above 26.5 deg C. The overall mid-level\r\nenvironment is fairly moist and the vertical shear is expected to\r\nremain light, which should favor some additional intensification. By\r\n36 hours, however, Celia will be moving over sub-26C SSTs, which\r\nshould induce slow but steady weakening through the remainder of the\r\nforecast period. However, since the vertical wind shear is expected\r\nto remain low, Celia is forecast to still be a tropical cyclone when\r\nit crosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin\r\nin about 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory, and lies above all of the intensity guidance\r\nthrough 36 h, and then lies near or below the guidance after that\r\nduring the weakening phase.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 15.1N 125.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 15.5N 126.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 16.1N 128.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 17.1N 130.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 18.2N 132.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 20.1N 136.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 21.1N 140.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 21.6N 145.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016\r\n\r\nDuring the past 6 h, the inner-core region of Celia has undergone\r\nmultiple evolutions from a banding eye into a large eye that was\r\nmore representative of an annular hurricane to what has now become\r\na 20-nmi cloud-filled eye. Subjective Dvorak current intensity (CI)\r\nestimates remain T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and CIRA and CIMSS\r\nAMSU objective intensity estimates were 87 kt and 86 kt at 1435Z,\r\nrespectively. Since those subjective and objective estimates were\r\nobtained, the inner-core convection has increased markedly,\r\nespecially during the past few hours, with tightly coiled convective\r\nbands now concentrated within mainly 70 nmi of the center. Based on\r\nthe improved satellite appearance, the initial intensity has been\r\nincreased to 85 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt. As anticipated, Celia has\r\nslowed its forward motion as it approaches a developing weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge. A turn toward the west-northwest later\r\ntonight is expected as Celia begins to move into the developing\r\nweakness in the ridge. The shortwave trough that is inducing this\r\nweakness is forecast to weaken in 48-72 h and lift out to the north\r\nor northeast. This will allow the ridge to re-strengthen and\r\ngradually nudge Celia back on a more westward track in the 72-120 h\r\nperiod. The latest NHC track guidance continues to be in excellent\r\nagreement with very little spread in the models, and the new\r\nforecast track is essentially just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory track, and lies along the southern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nThe center of Celia is currently passing over 25.5 deg C SSTs based\r\non reports from drifting buoy 43540, which is about 2 deg C cooler\r\nthan the SHIPS intensity model is indicating. Having said that, the\r\ncooler water doesn't appear to have negatively affected Celia today,\r\nperhaps due to the proximity to warmer water and deeper instability\r\nto the south. However, by 12 h and beyond, Celia will be moving over\r\na large field of sub-26 deg C SSTs and into an extensive region of\r\nstable stratocumulus clouds, and the decreasing instability is\r\nexpected to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the\r\nforecast period. However, with the vertical shear forecast to remain\r\nlow, Celia is expected to still be a tropical cyclone when it\r\ncrosses 140W longitude and moves into the Central Pacific basin in\r\n84-96 h. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 15.2N 126.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 15.7N 127.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 16.6N 129.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 17.7N 131.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 18.8N 133.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 20.5N 137.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 21.3N 142.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 21.8N 147.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 11 2016\r\n\r\nCelia continues to lack a definitive Central Dense Overcast and the\r\ncentral features look rather ragged in conventional geostationary\r\nimagery.  A 37 GHz SSM/I image from a few hours ago revealed that\r\nthe eye was open over the northeast quadrant.  The current intensity\r\nestimate is kept at 85 kt, which is a blend of subjective Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB and UW-CIMSS ADT estimates.  Since\r\nCelia should be moving over waters that will be gradually cooling\r\nand into a more stable air mass, a weakening trend will commence\r\nsoon.  The official intensity forecast is very close to the latest\r\nmodel consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has turned toward the west-northwest and the motion is\r\nnow about 285/9 kt.  Celia is near the western periphery of a\r\nmid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion is likely for the next couple of days.  A\r\nmid-level cyclone currently to the northeast of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands is predicted to open up into a trough and lift northward,\r\nallowing a ridge to build back in to the north of the tropical\r\ncyclone.  This evolution of the steering pattern should cause Celia\r\nto turn more toward the west in the latter part of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The track models have mostly shifted northward from\r\ntheir previous predictions, so the official forecast has been nudged\r\na little to the north of the previous one.  This is south of the\r\nlatest dynamical model consensus, however.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 15.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 16.2N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 17.4N 130.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 18.6N 132.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 19.8N 134.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 21.4N 138.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 22.0N 143.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 22.5N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Celia has changed somewhat, as the hurricane\r\nappears to be completing an eyewall replacement cycle.  A 50-60 n mi\r\nwide eye now is embedded in a relatively small central dense\r\novercast, which gives Celia a somewhat annular appearance.\r\nSubjective and objective satellite estimates have changed little\r\nsince the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains 85 kt.\r\n\r\nCelia has continued to turn to the right and the initial motion is\r\nnow 300/9.  The hurricane is near the western periphery of a\r\nmid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, and a northwestward motion is\r\nlikely for the next couple of days.  A mid-level cyclone seen in\r\nwater vapor imagery near 29N 151W is expected to weaken to a trough\r\nand move northward after 24-48 hours, which would allow a ridge to\r\nbuild back in to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This\r\ndevelopment would steer Celia in a more westerly direction in the\r\nlater part of the forecast period. The tightly clustered track\r\nmodels have again shifted a little northward from their previous\r\npredictions, and the official forecast shows a similar small shift.\r\nThe new forecast track lies near the various consensus models in\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nCelia should be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures for\r\nthe next several days, and the dynamical models forecast increasing\r\nnorthwesterly shear after 48 hours.  This combination should cause\r\nCelia to weaken, and all of the intensity guidance supports this\r\nscenario.  The new intensity forecast remains in best agreement with\r\nthe intensity consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 16.2N 127.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 17.0N 129.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 18.2N 131.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 19.4N 133.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 20.4N 135.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 22.0N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 22.5N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 23.0N 148.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough the cloud pattern remains well organized, the convection\r\nhas weakened considerably during the past several hours while the\r\ncirculation moves over cooler waters.  The eye, or what is left\r\nof it, has become large and ragged with the deepest convection\r\nlocated within a curved band to the east. Given that the numbers\r\nfrom both TAFB and SAB have decreased to 4.0 on the Dvorak scale,\r\nthe initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, which is an intensity\r\nhigher than one can expect from these numbers. However, due to\r\ncontinuity and Dvorak constraints, this is probably a good estimate\r\nat this time.\r\n\r\nCelia is moving toward increasingly cooler waters, and beyond 2\r\ndays, the shear is expected to increase. These two factors should\r\nresult in weakening. Most of the models call for gradual weakening\r\nand so does the NHC forecast, which in fact, is very close to the\r\nSHIPS model.\r\n\r\nCelia is now moving toward the northwest at 10 kt around the\r\nsubtropical ridge. Global models forecast the ridge to amplify a\r\nlittle, and this could force Celia on a more west-northwesterly\r\ntrack later today or Wednesday. By the end of the forecast period,\r\nCelia should have become a shallow cyclone, and will likely move on\r\na westward track steered by the low-level flow. The NHC forecast is\r\nvery near the multi-model consensus and continues to be very\r\nsimilar to the previous forecast.  Since the track guidance is in\r\ngood agreement, there is high confidence in the forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.8N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 17.8N 129.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 18.9N 131.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 19.9N 133.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 21.0N 136.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 22.1N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 22.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 23.5N 149.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern consists of a large ragged eye surrounded by a\r\nring of moderate convection and a convective curved band to the\r\neast of the eye. The overall amount of convection has been\r\ndecreasing during the past 12 hours. The Dvorak T-numbers have\r\ndecreased slightly during the day, and the best estimate of the\r\ncurrent intensity is 70 kt. The circulation of Celia has continued\r\nto move over increasingly cooler waters, and SHIPS guidance\r\nindicates a gradual increase in shear. On this basis, the NHC\r\nforecast calls for weakening, and Celia is forecast to be a tropical\r\ndepression in about 3 days or sooner.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west-northwest\r\nor 300 degrees at about 11 kt. Global models continue to show a\r\npersistent moderate subtropical ridge north of Celia. This pattern\r\nwill continue to steer the cyclone on a west-northwesterly track\r\nfor the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, Celia should have become\r\na shallow cyclone, and will likely move on a westward track steered\r\nby the low-level flow. The track guidance continues to be in very\r\ngood agreement, and there is high confidence in the forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 17.4N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 18.4N 130.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 19.6N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 20.5N 135.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 21.3N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 22.5N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 23.0N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 24.0N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Celia","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud tops surrounding the large ragged eye of Celia\r\nhave been gradually warming since earlier today.  Based on\r\nsubjective Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB as well as\r\nobjective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS, the intensity is reduced to\r\n65 kt.  Since the tropical cyclone will be moving over cooler\r\nwaters, into a stabler air mass, and westerly shear is forecast to\r\nincrease, a continued weakening trend is expected.  Celia should\r\nweaken into a tropical depression by the time it reaches the\r\nCentral Pacific Hurricane Basin.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis a little below the latest model consensus and a little above the\r\nlatest LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nThe large eye has been moving between west-northwest and northwest\r\nat around 10 kt.  There is no reason to make any significant\r\nchanges to the previous NHC forecast track.  A mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge is predicted by the global models to remain to\r\nthe north of the cyclone for the next several days.  Celia is\r\nlikely to become an increasingly shallow system, so later in the\r\nforecast period, it should turn toward the west following the\r\nlow-level flow.  The official forecast is close to the consensus of\r\nthe dynamical guidance, which are fairly tightly clustered.  This\r\nis basically an extension/update of the previous NHC track.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 18.0N 130.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 18.9N 131.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 20.0N 133.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 21.0N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 21.9N 138.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 22.7N 142.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 23.5N 147.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 24.0N 152.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nWhile Celia continues to show an eye in infrared imagery, several\r\nrecent microwave overpasses indicate this feature is displaced to\r\nthe north-northeast of the low-level center.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are 65 kt, and a recent CIMSS AMSU\r\nestimate is 74 kt.  However, a partial ASCAT-B overpass showed\r\nmaximum winds of 55 kt north of the center.  Given these data and\r\nthe level of disorganization implied by the microwave imagery,\r\nCelia is downgraded to a tropical storm with 60-kt winds.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 300/10.  A mid-level subtropical ridge is\r\npredicted by the global models to remain to the north of the cyclone\r\nfor the next several days.  This should result in Celia moving\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours.  After that time, the\r\nguidance becomes somewhat divergent.  The GFS and UKMET models are\r\non the south side of the guidance envelope and forecast a more\r\nwestward motion, while the ECMWF is on the north side and forecasts\r\na continued west-northwestward motion.  Overall, the consensus\r\nmodels have shifted a little to the south after 36 hours.  Based on\r\nthis, the new forecast track is also shifted a little to the south\r\nand shows a just north of due west motion from 48-120 hours.\r\n\r\nCelia should encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures for the\r\nnext 48-72 hours.  After 72 hours, the cyclone is likely to\r\nencounter strong westerly shear even as it moves over slightly\r\nwarmer water.  This evolution should cause Celia to weaken further,\r\nwith the system forecast to become a tropical depression by 72 hours\r\nand a remnant low by 120 hours.  The new forecast intensity is an\r\nupdate of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 18.3N 131.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 19.3N 132.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 20.4N 134.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 21.3N 136.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 22.0N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 22.5N 144.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 23.0N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 23.5N 153.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and deep convection\r\nis confined to a small area near the center. Microwave and\r\nconventional infrared images continue to show that the low- and\r\nmid-level centers are not vertically aligned, which is another\r\nindication of weakening.  In addition, subjective Dvorak estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB, as well as objective numbers from CIMMS, argue\r\nfor a reduction of the winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is\r\nset at 55 kt.\r\n\r\nCelia is already over cooler waters, and the wind shear is forecast\r\nto gradually increase. The presence of these conditions will\r\nresult in weakening, and Celia is expected to degenerate into a\r\ntropical depression in a couple of days or sooner and into a remnant\r\nlow thereafter. The NHC forecast follows the trend of the SHIPS\r\nguidance and the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone appears to be moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees\r\nat 10 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. Given that\r\nCelia is forecast to weaken and become a shallow system, the cyclone\r\nmost likely will move toward the west in a couple of days steered by\r\nthe prevailing low-level easterly flow. All track models are tightly\r\nclustered, and the NHC forecast, which is similar to the previous\r\none, is in the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 19.1N 132.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 19.8N 134.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 20.8N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 21.7N 138.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 22.0N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 23.0N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 23.5N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1200Z 24.0N 154.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Celia has practically vanished, and\r\nconsequently the Dvorak subjective and objective T-numbers have\r\ncontinued to decrease. However, the cyclone still has a vigorous\r\ncirculation, and the best estimate of the initial intensity is 45\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe circulation of Celia is moving over waters of about 24 degree\r\nCelsius and cooling, while the wind shear is forecast to gradually\r\nincrease. These conditions will result in additional weakening, and\r\nCelia is expected to degenerate into a tropical depression in about\r\na day, and into a remnant low soon thereafter. The NHC forecast\r\nis following SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone appears to be moving toward the west-northwest or 300\r\ndegrees at 11 kt around the periphery of the subtropical ridge.\r\nGiven that Celia is already weakening and becoming a shallow\r\nsystem, it will be steered by the low-level flow on a general\r\nwest to west-northwest track for the next several days until\r\ndissipation.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 19.5N 133.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 20.3N 135.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 21.2N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 21.7N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 22.0N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 22.5N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 23.5N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  18/1800Z 24.0N 156.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nAfter Celia was nearly devoid of deep convection earlier today,\r\ninfrared satellite images indicate that convection has made a bit of\r\ncomeback over the northern portion of the circulation.  The initial\r\nintensity is being held at 45 kt, which is in agreement with the\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and a partial ASCAT-B pass\r\nfrom a few hours ago.\r\n\r\nCelia is currently over cool 24 C waters, and although the waters\r\ncould warm a little along the forecast track, they are expected to\r\nstay below 26 C.  In addition, the tropical cyclone will be moving\r\ninto an environment of increasing westerly shear and drier air.\r\nThese conditions should cause weakening, and the official forecast\r\nshows Celia degenerating into a remnant low by 36 hours.  The global\r\nmodels suggest that the remnant low could persist for several days\r\nover the central Pacific.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt, and is\r\nbeing steered on the southwestern periphery of a sprawling mid-level\r\nridge centered over northern Mexico and the southern United States.\r\nA westward turn is expected in a day or two, when Celia becomes a\r\nshallow system and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The\r\nmodels are tightly clustered, and the NHC official track forecast\r\nlies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 19.9N 134.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 20.8N 136.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 21.5N 138.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 21.9N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 22.2N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 22.9N 148.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 23.6N 152.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0000Z 24.5N 157.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough conventional satellite imagery indicates some decrease in\r\noverall deep convection coverage this morning, a 0558 UTC ASCAT\r\noverpass revealed numerous 45 kt winds over the northern half of the\r\nsystem.  West-southwesterly shear appears to be undercutting the\r\nupper easterly diffluent flow aloft, subsequently, creating a\r\nstructural tilt and displacing the circulation center to the\r\nsouth of the convective mass.  The initial intensity is held at 45\r\nkt based on the aforementioned scatterometer pass.  Celia is\r\ntraversing gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the\r\nlarge-scale models all indicate that the cyclone will encounter\r\nmoderate to strong westerly shear by the 72 hour forecast period.\r\nTherefore, the cyclone should commence a weakening trend today, and\r\nbecome a depression by tonight.  The official forecast is based\r\nprimarily on a blend of the LGEM and decay SHIPS and reflects a\r\ndegeneration of the cyclone into a remnant low in 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/11\r\nkt, around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge\r\nanchored to the north of the cyclone.  Guidance shows that Celia\r\nshould turn westward by the 36 hour period as the cyclone decays\r\ninto a shallow system and is steered by the low-level trades.  The\r\nNHC forecast is weighed heavily on the multi-model consensus, and is\r\nadjusted slightly to the south of the previous forecast beyond day\r\n3.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 20.3N 135.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 21.0N 137.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 21.6N 139.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 21.9N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 22.2N 144.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 22.9N 149.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 23.5N 153.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/0600Z 24.5N 158.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nCelia has continued to maintain a small area of deep convection\r\nthis morning, however recent microwave imagery shows that the area\r\nof cold cloud tops has become separated from the low-level\r\ncenter due to some southwesterly shear.  Dvorak current intensity\r\nnumbers of T3.0 from both TAFB and SAB and the earlier ASCAT data\r\nsupport keeping an initial wind speed of 45 kt.  The remaining\r\nconvection should gradually decrease in coverage while Celia\r\nmoves over SSTs around 24C during the next day or so.  This should\r\nresult in weakening, and Celia is forecast to become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone in 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, the\r\ncyclone will be moving over slightly warmer SSTs, but moderate\r\nto strong westerly shear should prevent regeneration.  A tight\r\npressure gradient between the post-tropical cyclone and a strong\r\nhigh pressure area to the north will likely help maintain winds\r\nof around 30 kt with the system for several days.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave fixes indicate that Celia is moving west-\r\nnorthwestward, or 295/10 kt.  The cyclone should continue moving\r\nwest-northwestward today, but is forecast to turn westward on\r\nFriday as it becomes a shallow system and is steered by the\r\nlow-level easterly flow.  The NHC forecast track is close to the\r\nGFS, GFS ensemble mean, and the multi-model consensus, which are\r\nall in fairly close agreement.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 20.8N 136.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 21.4N 138.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 21.7N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 22.0N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 22.3N 145.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 23.0N 149.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 23.7N 154.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1200Z 24.5N 160.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nCelia continues to produce convective bands over the northern\r\nportion of the circulation, however the clouds tops have gradually\r\nwarmed today. Despite decreasing Dvorak T-numbers, a recent ASCAT\r\npass revealed a large area of 40 to 45 kt winds over the northern\r\nand northwestern portion of the circulation.  Therefore, the\r\ninitial wind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory.  The tropical\r\ncyclone should weaken during the next 12 to 24 hours while it moves\r\nover SSTs of around 24C and into an area of moderate\r\nwest-northwesterly shear.  Celia is forecast to become post-tropical\r\nin 12 to 24 hours, and weaken to a remnant low within a couple of\r\ndays.  The cyclone will be moving over slightly warmer waters in 2\r\nto 3 days, but strong westerly shear and drier mid-level air should\r\nprevent regeneration.  A tight pressure gradient between the remnant\r\nlow and a strong high pressure area to the north will likely help\r\nmaintain winds of around 30 kt with the system for several days.\r\n\r\nCelia has been moving west-northwestward or 295/12 kt.  The\r\ncyclone is forecast to turn westward on Friday as it becomes a\r\nshallow system and is steered by the low-level easterly flow.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in good agreement on this scenario and the NHC\r\nforecast is near an average of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 21.4N 138.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 21.8N 139.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 22.1N 142.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 22.3N 144.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 22.8N 147.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 23.5N 151.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 24.2N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  19/1800Z 25.2N 161.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection within Celia has been steadily deteriorating with\r\nonly a few patches of moderately cold cloud tops existing in the\r\nnorthern semicircle.  Consistent with this downward trend, the SAB\r\nand TAFB subjective Dvorak classifications have dropped to current\r\nintensity numbers of 2.0 and 2.5, respectively, suggesting an\r\nintensity of 30-35 kt.  However, a recent ASCAT-A scatterometer pass\r\nindicated that peak winds near 50 kt were still occurring.  Assuming\r\nsome weakening since that time, the initial intensity is assessed at\r\n45 kt.\r\n\r\nDespite the resilience of the vortex today, Celia should soon\r\nsuccumb to the effects of cool 24-25 deg C SSTs, a stable\r\natmosphere, and convergent upper-level flow.  Thus it is\r\nanticipated the the system will lose its deep convection and become\r\na post-tropical cyclone on Friday and degenerate to a remnant low by\r\nSaturday.  Due in part to the strong synoptic-scale pressure\r\ngradient to Celia's north, the system should be able to maintain\r\npeak winds of about 30 kt for the next few days.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is based upon the IVCN consensus, in which the\r\nstatistical models dissipate Celia more quickly, while the\r\ndynamical models hold on to Celia perhaps too robustly.\r\n\r\nCelia is moving toward the west-northwest at about 12 kt due to the\r\nsteering influence of a strong subtropical ridge to its northeast.\r\nAs the cyclone decays, it should be carried along in the low-level\r\neasterly trade wind flow toward the west at about the same forward\r\nspeed. The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN consensus,\r\nwhich shows a tight packing of its individual members.  On the\r\nforecast track, Celia is expected to move into the Central Pacific\r\nbasin tomorrow morning.\r\n\r\nThe scatterometer pass indicated that the tropical-storm-force wind\r\nradii were somewhat larger than earlier analyzed.  Consistent with a\r\nlarger-sized circulation, an altimeter pass showed that the extent\r\nof 12-ft seas was also substantially larger than indicated in the\r\nlast advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 21.8N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 22.2N 140.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 22.3N 143.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 22.4N 145.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 22.8N 148.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 23.8N 152.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 24.5N 157.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0000Z 25.4N 162.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Celia","Adv":35,"Date":"2016-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP042016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nEnhanced infrared imagery and a recent SSMIS microwave overpass\r\nshow all that remains of Celia's deep convective cloud pattern is a\r\nfragmented curved band displaced about 60 nm north-northeast of the\r\nexposed circulation center.  The initial intensity is lowered to 40\r\nkt, but is quite a bit higher than the subjective satellite\r\nintensity estimates out of respect for the 45-50 kt winds that were\r\ndepicted in the earlier 14/1912 UTC ASCAT pass. Celia should\r\ncontinue to gradually spin down, due to the sub-24C SSTs and the\r\nsurrounding stable air mass, and become a post-tropical cyclone by\r\ntonight.  Although the latest Remote Sensing System's latest SST\r\nanalysis indicates slightly warmer SSTs of 25-26C ahead of Celia,\r\nthe global models still show increasing westerly shear in 36 hours,\r\nwhich is expected to hamper any regeneration potential.  The\r\nintensity forecast is an update of the previous advisory and is\r\nhedged toward the multi-model consensus and the GFS/ECMWF\r\nlarge-scale models.\r\n\r\nCelia has been moving west-northwestward or 285/11 kt.  The\r\ncyclone is forecast to turn westward later today as it weakens\r\nfurther, becoming a shallow system, and is steered by the\r\nlow-level trades.  The model guidance reflects this scenario well\r\nand the official NHC forecast splits between the previous forecast\r\ntrack and the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nCelia has moved into the Central Pacific basin.  Therefore, this is\r\nthe last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center.\r\nSubsequent advisories will be issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 22.0N 140.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 22.2N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 22.4N 144.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 22.7N 146.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 23.2N 148.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 24.1N 153.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 25.0N 158.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  20/0600Z 26.3N 163.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n300 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that the area of low pressure located a few\r\nhundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, has developed\r\nsufficiently organized deep convection and a well-defined center of\r\ncirculation.  On this basis, the system is being declared a tropical\r\ndepression, the fourth one in the past 10 days in the eastern North\r\nPacific basin.  The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a pair of\r\nASCAT passes from a few hours ago that showed winds in the 25-30 kt\r\nrange.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion of the depression is uncertain since it is still\r\nin its formative stage, but the best estimate using microwave fixes\r\nis 315/8 kt.  A turn to the west with a slight increase in forward\r\nspeed is expected to begin on Tuesday and persist through the\r\nremainder of the period as mid-level ridging becomes better\r\nestablished to the north of the cyclone.  This track takes the\r\nsystem away from the coast of Mexico. The models are in relatively\r\ngood agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the\r\nconsensus aids.\r\n\r\nStrengthening seems likely during the next 2 to 3 days while the\r\nvertical shear is expected to be light to moderate, the atmosphere\r\nrelatively moist, and the waters beneath the cyclone sufficiently\r\nwarm. After that time, the cyclone is expected to move near the cold\r\nwater wake left behind from Blas and Celia and then ultimately cross\r\nthe 26 C isotherm in 4 to 5 days.  As a result, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast shows the strength of the system leveling off in the 3 to 5\r\nday time frame.  This prediction is a little above the intensity\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 15.3N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 16.0N 107.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 16.2N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 16.1N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 16.0N 113.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 16.2N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 16.8N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 17.7N 126.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n900 PM MDT MON JUL 11 2016\r\n\r\nConvective banding associated with Five-E has increased in\r\norganization this evening.  Accordingly, the SAB and TAFB Dvorak\r\ncurrent intensity numbers have increased to a 2.0 from both\r\nagencies, corresponding to an intensity of 30 kt.  Earlier\r\nscatterometer data suggested higher winds than given by Dvorak\r\nestimates, however, so the system may already be a tropical storm.\r\n\r\nThe environment in which Five-E is moving over and through - quite\r\nwarm SSTs, a very moist atmosphere, and moderate to low tropospheric\r\nvertical shear - is likely to promote steady intensification during\r\nthe next three days.  Around days 4 and 5, however, the cyclone\r\nshould be encountering the cool wake produced by Hurricanes Blas and\r\nCelia.  This sub-26 deg C water and more stable environment may\r\ncause the system to gradually weaken at that time. The intensity\r\nforecast is closest to an HWRF dynamical/SHIPS statistical model\r\nblend through 72 h, and to SHIPS alone at days 4 and 5, and is very\r\nsimilar to that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone is moving at 320/8 kt, though the current\r\nposition and motion are somewhat uncertain because of the lack of\r\nuseful microwave imagery passes this evening.  The system should\r\nbend to a due west heading by tomorrow, as the deep-layer ridge to\r\nits north builds in and strengthens.  The model guidance is tightly\r\nclustered through all five days and the NHC track prediction is\r\nnearly the same as that from the previous advisory.  The tropical\r\ncyclone will remain out to sea with no threat to land for the next\r\nseveral days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 15.7N 106.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 16.1N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 16.2N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 16.1N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 16.0N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 16.0N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 16.8N 123.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 18.0N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n300 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate little overall change to the depression\r\nduring the past several hours.  Convection has been flaring up and\r\ndown without any apparent increase in organization.  A pair of\r\nASCAT passes showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, so the initial\r\nwind speed will stay 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion has turned west-northwestward, and recently the\r\ndepression may even be moving due westward.  A westward or west-\r\nsouthwestward course is expected for the next 2-3 days due to a\r\nbuilding ridge over the eastern Pacific.  Thereafter the system\r\nshould resume a track toward the west or west-northwest, with some\r\ndifferences noted in the strength of the ridge at long range.\r\nOverall, the model consensus has generally shifted southward by\r\nabout 30 n mi at most time intervals, and the official forecast will\r\nfollow that trend.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is tricky since it is becoming more related\r\nto the track forecast. While the overall environment looks conducive\r\nfor strengthening for a few days, the southward shift in the\r\ncyclone's predicted path increases the chances that the system\r\nencounters the cool wake of Blas and Celia. For now it is expected\r\nto stay just to the north, so only a slight reduction is made to the\r\nprevious official forecast. The latest forecast is similar to the\r\nintensity consensus for the first couple days, and remains above\r\nthat at longer range, mostly out of respect for a rather low-shear\r\nenvironment forecast by the global models by late week.  It is\r\nworth noting, and probably should be no surprise, that the intensity\r\nguidance has a rather wide range for this forecast, with the\r\nGFS-based COAMPS-TC model showing no significant strengthening and\r\nthe HWRF model making the cyclone a hurricane in 36 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 15.8N 107.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.9N 108.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 15.7N 110.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 15.5N 113.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 15.9N 119.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 16.6N 123.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 17.5N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n900 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nRecent microwave data indicate that the depression has a well-\r\ndefined circulation with the center located to the northeast of the\r\nstrongest convection.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are\r\nT2.0 from TAFB and T3.0 from SAB, and the latest ADT estimate is\r\nright at the tropical storm threshold.  A consensus of these values\r\nsupports upgrading the depression to a tropical storm, with the\r\ninitial intensity set at 35 kt.  After starting off May and June\r\nvery quietly, the eastern North Pacific season has already caught\r\nup to where it should be climatologically in terms of named storms.\r\n\r\nDarby appears to have turned westward with an initial motion of\r\n270/9 kt.  A subtropical ridge extending westward from northern\r\nMexico is expected to strengthen during the next three days, which\r\nwill steer Darby westward, or even a little south of due west,\r\nduring that time.  The model fields continue to show differences in\r\nthe strength of the ridge at the end of the forecast period.  The\r\nECMWF maintains a stronger ridge, with Darby possibly continuing a\r\nwestward motion, while the GFS erodes the ridge and allows Darby to\r\ngain some latitude.  The track model envelope has again shifted\r\nsouthward on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast has\r\nbeen nudged in that direction close to a consensus of the GFS and\r\nECMWF.\r\n\r\nDarby will be moving over a warm pool of SSTs around 29.5 degrees\r\nCelsius during the next 24 hours, and the northeasterly vertical\r\nshear affecting the cyclone should abate a bit.  Depending on\r\nits exact track, Darby could move over the cold wake left behind by\r\nHurricanes Blas and Celia in a couple of days.  Some shear could\r\nalso persist for a few days, therefore only steady strengthening is\r\nexpected through 72 hours.  Colder water should then cause\r\nweakening on days 4 and 5.  There is still a lot of spread among\r\nthe intensity models, so for now no significant changes are being\r\nmade to the previous NHC intensity forecast.  This scenario is a\r\nlittle above the intensity consensus during the first three days\r\nand then close to the consensus on days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 16.0N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.9N 110.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 15.7N 112.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 15.5N 114.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 15.4N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 15.9N 121.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 16.5N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n300 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough there is still some northeasterly shear present, the\r\nlow-level center of Darby has been migrating closer to the deep\r\nconvection during the day.  Recent ASCAT data indicate that maximum\r\nwinds are now near 45 kt, and this is supported by T3.0 Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB.  The ocean near Darby is very\r\nwarm, with SSTs on the order of 29-30 degrees Celsius, but vertical\r\nshear is expected to be 10-15 kt for another 24 hours or so.\r\nTherefore, steady strengthening is anticipated, with Darby possibly\r\nbecoming a hurricane on Wednesday.  The cyclone will likely reach\r\nits maximum intensity around day 3 before it reaches cooler waters\r\nand begins to weaken.  Because Darby is starting out about 10 kt\r\nstronger than previously estimated, the NHC intensity forecast has\r\nbeen bumped up during the entire forecast period, and it is very\r\nclose to the SHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nDarby has been moving just south of due west, or 265/10 kt.  The\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to\r\nstrengthen during the next 2-3 days, which will force Darby on a\r\nwestward course during that time.  The GFS continues to erode the\r\nwestern extent of the ridge more than the ECMWF and UKMET models on\r\ndays 4 and 5, allowing Darby to make a stronger northwestward turn\r\nat the end of the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast favors\r\nthe ridge remaining strong and only shows a slight west-\r\nnorthwestward motion on days 4 and 5.  This forecast is a little\r\nsouth of the TVCE model consensus and not too different from the\r\nprevious forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 15.7N 109.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 15.6N 111.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 15.5N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 15.4N 115.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 15.6N 118.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 16.2N 122.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 17.0N 126.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 18.0N 130.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n900 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2016\r\n\r\nThis evening's satellite presentation shows a considerable amount\r\nof improvement in Darby's cloud pattern.  It appears as though\r\nthe northeasterly shear, which was curtailing development, is\r\ndecreasing.  Deep convection has developed over the circulation\r\ncenter with -75C cloud tops, and a strong curved banding feature is\r\nevident in the western portion of the cyclone.  Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates are T3.5 from both agencies, and the initial\r\nintensity is increased to 55 kt for this advisory.  Further\r\nstrengthening is expected, and the majority of the intensity\r\nguidance indicates that Darby will become a hurricane in 12 hours.\r\nModels, particularly the LGEM, Decay SHIPS, and the FSU ensemble,\r\nare showing a stronger hurricane in 48-60 hours compared to earlier\r\nruns, and the forecast follows suit. Gradual weakening is forecast\r\nbeyond day 3 as Darby traverses decreasing sea surface temperatures.\r\n\r\nDarby is moving a little to the left of the previous advisory, now\r\n260/9 kt.  The cyclone should continue on a general westward track\r\nduring the next 48 hours south of a well established mid- to upper\r\nlevel ridge extending from Mexico.  The GFDL and the GFS are still\r\nindicating a stronger break in the ridge beyond day 3 as a\r\nmid-latitude trough approaches the west coast of the United States.\r\nThe other global models indicate the ridge maintaining strength\r\nthrough day 5.  The official forecast basically splits the two\r\nsolutions and sides with the multi-model consensus and the FSU\r\nsuperensemble.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 15.4N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 15.3N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 15.3N 114.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 15.4N 116.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 15.5N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 16.2N 123.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 16.8N 127.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 17.7N 131.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n300 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nDarby continues to strengthen.  The satellite appearance has changed\r\nfrom a shear pattern to a central dense overcast, with a larger and\r\ndeeper area of convection than 6 hours ago.  In addition, a WindSat\r\n37 GHz microwave pass at 0104 UTC showed the development of a\r\nlow-level ring feature.  The initial wind speed is raised to 60\r\nkt, a bit above the satellite classifications in deference to the\r\nimproved inner-core structure.\r\n\r\nSomewhat surprisingly, Darby has been rapidly intensifying during\r\nthe past 24 hours, with a 30-kt wind increase during that time.\r\nGiven the recently observed microwave ring feature and a generally\r\nconducive environment, it makes sense to be on the high side of the\r\nguidance in the near-term.  After 24 hours, SSTs should drop to\r\naround 27C, but the shear is expected to stay low. Thus, the\r\nforecast intensities are leveled off from days 1-3 in agreement with\r\nmuch of the guidance.  A slow decrease in wind speed is predicted at\r\nlong range due to gradually falling SSTs.   The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is most similar to a consensus of the HWRF, SHIPS and LGEM\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving generally westward at about 10 kt.  This\r\ngeneral motion is expected for the next several days while\r\nDarby remains on the southern side of a strong ridge over the\r\neastern Pacific.  The cyclone could turn toward the west-northwest\r\nby the end of the period with a weaker ridge possible over the\r\nwestern portion of the basin. Only small changes were made to the\r\nprevious forecast, and the latest NHC prediction is on the southern\r\nside of the well-clustered guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 15.3N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 15.3N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 15.5N 115.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 15.7N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 16.7N 124.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 17.5N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 18.5N 132.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n900 AM MDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nAbout 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear continues to affect Darby,\r\nkeeping it just below hurricane strength.  Microwave data\r\nfrom a few hours ago revealed that the cyclone has a closed\r\nmid-level ring, which is offset a bit from the low-level center.  In\r\naddition, the bulk of the deep convection is displaced to the south\r\nof the center.  Given the current structure, and that Dvorak\r\nestimates range from 55 kt to 65 kt, the initial intensity is held\r\nat 60 kt for now.  Ocean temperatures near Darby are between 28 and\r\n29 degrees Celsius, and based on the forecast track, it appears that\r\nthe cyclone will skirt along the northern edge of the cold wake left\r\nbehind by previous hurricanes. The SSTs will be sufficiently warm to\r\nsupport intensification for the next three days or so, and vertical\r\nshear is still expected to decrease later today.  Therefore,\r\nstrengthening is anticipated, with the NHC official forecast close\r\nto the high end of the intensity guidance for the entire forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nDarby has been moving south of due west, or 265/9 kt, due to a\r\nstrengthening subtropical ridge extending west of northern Mexico.\r\nThe ridge is forecast to remain firmly in place through the next 5\r\ndays, keeping Darby on a generally westward path.  The GFS\r\ncontinues to show a weaker ridge compared to the other global\r\nmodels at the end of the forecast period, but the spread in the\r\nguidance envelope is actually fairly low.  There is high confidence\r\nin the NHC track forecast, which remains near the southern extent\r\nof the model suite and close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 15.2N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 15.3N 114.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 15.6N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 15.9N 119.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 16.2N 121.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 16.8N 125.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 17.5N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n300 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nDarby is taking on a different shape as the vertical shear gradually\r\ndecreases.  Convective bursts with overshooting tops have been\r\noccurring near the center, and a broken band of convection wraps\r\naround the southern and western part of the circulation. Subjective\r\nand objective Dvorak estimates are unanimously T4.0, and Darby is\r\ntherefore being upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane.  Ocean temperatures\r\nnear Darby are between 28-29 degrees Celsius, and even though SSTs\r\ndecrease some out ahead of the hurricane, microwave data suggest\r\nthat the ocean is warming up after the passages of Blas and Celia.\r\nVertical shear is also expected to be low during the next few days,\r\nand Darby should continue strengthening for the next 36-48 hours.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is not too different from the previous\r\nforecast, and it is near or just above the upper bound of the\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nThe latest fixes indicate that Darby is beginning to gain latitude\r\nagain, and the 12-hour average motion is 270/10 kt.  Mid-level\r\nridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to change very\r\nlittle over the next five days, and Darby should therefore maintain\r\na consistent westward track through the forecast period.  The track\r\nguidance has shifted a little to the north on this cycle, and there\r\nis very little cross-track difference noted among the models.\r\nHowever, there are some along-track speed differences, with the\r\nECMWF showing a faster motion due to a stronger depiction of the\r\nmid-level ridge.  The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged\r\nnorthward and is a little faster than the previous forecast, lying\r\nclose to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 15.4N 113.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 15.6N 115.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 16.0N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 16.4N 120.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 16.8N 122.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 17.3N 126.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 17.8N 130.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n900 PM MDT WED JUL 13 2016\r\n\r\nDarby has developed a large CDO pattern and a 2314Z SSMI/S microwave\r\npass indicated a 15-20 nmi diameter eye embedded in the center of\r\nthe central dense overcast. Subjective intensity estimates are a\r\nconsensus T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nand AMSU estimates were T4.4/75 kt and 72 kt, respectively. The\r\nadvisory intensity of 70 kt is based on an average of these values.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The expansive deep-layer\r\nridge to the north of Darby is forecast by the global models to\r\nremain entrenched across the eastern and central Pacific for the\r\nnext several days, which should act to keep Darby moving in a\r\ngeneral westerly direction throughout the 5-day forecast period.\r\nOther than some differences in forward speed, there remains very\r\nlittle cross-track difference noted among the more reliable models.\r\nThe new official track forecast is essentially just an extension of\r\nthe previous advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the\r\nGFS and ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nDarby is expected to encounter the most favorable combination of\r\natmospheric and oceanic conditions during the next 24 hours or so,\r\nand steady intensification is forecast as a result during that time.\r\nBy 36-48 h, Darby will be moving across cooler SSTs near 26 deg C\r\nand into a drier airmass, so leveling off of the intensity is\r\nexpected. Steady weakening is forecast to begin after that time as\r\nthe hurricane moves over 25-26 deg C SSTs. However, the weakening\r\nrate is expected to be a little slower than normal due to low\r\nvertical wind shear conditions that both the GFS and ECMWF models\r\nare forecasting to affect Darby between 72-120 h. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and closely\r\nfollows the SHIPS intensity forecast guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 15.6N 114.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 15.9N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 16.3N 119.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 16.7N 121.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 17.0N 123.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 17.5N 127.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 18.1N 131.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 18.9N 136.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nDarby continues to generate a large area of cold cloud tops near\r\nthe center, and recent microwave images show a mid-level eye is\r\npresent.  However, the images also suggest this feature is displaced\r\nto the south or southwest of the low-level center, possibly due to\r\nthe effects of northeasterly vertical wind shear. Satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain unchanged at 65 kt, and\r\nearlier AMSU intensity estimates were near 70 kt.  So, the initial\r\nintensity remains 70 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/10.  The dynamical models forecast a\r\nlarge deep-layer ridge over much of the eastern and central Pacific\r\nfor the next several days, and this feature should steer Darby\r\ngenerally westward through the forecast period.  The track guidance\r\nhas similar tracks to that of the previous advisory, but it shows\r\na slightly faster forward speed.  Thus, the new forecast track,\r\nwhich is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF forecasts, is similar to, but\r\na little faster than, the previous track.\r\n\r\nThe current shear should subside in the next 12 hours or so, with\r\nDarby likely to remain in a light shear environment during the\r\nremainder of the forecast period.  Therefore, sea surface\r\ntemperature is expected to be the major factor controlling Darby's\r\nintensity.  The hurricane is currently over sea surface temperatures\r\nnear 27C, and this should continue for the next 36 hours or so.\r\nDuring this time, the intensity forecast calls for slow\r\nstrengthening.  From 48-72 hours, the forecast track takes Darby\r\nacross an area of sea surface temperatures less than 25C, a cold\r\npool that is poorly resolved in the statistical guidance.  The\r\nintensity forecast calls for significant weakening from 48-72 hours,\r\nwith the 72 hour forecast on the low side of the intensity guidance.\r\nAfter 72 hours, Darby should move over increasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures near or parallel to the 26C isotherm. At that time,\r\nthough, the cyclone is expected to encounter a drier and more stable\r\nair mass, so the forecast follows the guidance in calling for a\r\ncontinued slow weakening.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 15.7N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 16.0N 117.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 16.4N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 16.8N 122.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 17.1N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 18.0N 131.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 18.5N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nDarby still appears to be feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of\r\nnortheasterly shear.  Recent microwave images continue to show a\r\nmid-level eye, but the deep convection has an asymmetric structure,\r\nprimarily focused to the south and southwest of the center.\r\nSubjective and objective Dvorak estimates have not changed during\r\nthe past six hours, and the initial intensity is therefore held at\r\n70 kt.  Although Darby is moving over a relative cool spot in the\r\nocean, SSTs are still plenty warm to support strengthening for the\r\nnext 36 hours.  A limiting factor may be continued vertical shear,\r\nwhich does not seem to have decreased as the models had been\r\nindicating.  The SHIPS guidance now shows the shear staying up\r\nbetween 10-15 kt during the next 24 hours, so only a little more\r\nstrengthening is shown in the official forecast.  The new NHC\r\nforecast shows a slightly lower peak intensity, and it should be\r\nnoted that this forecast is still near the high end of the\r\nguidance.  Much colder SSTs, on the order of 24-25 degrees Celsius,\r\nshould contribute to weakening beyond 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains westward, or 280/11 kt.  A well-\r\nestablished ridge to the north of Darby should continue steering\r\nthe cyclone westward during the next five days.  With the exception\r\nof the GFDL and HWRF models, which are located along the northern\r\nedge of the guidance envelope, the track models are tightly\r\nclustered and are showing more agreement than yesterday.  The NHC\r\nforecast is south of the TVCE model consensus, and is very close to\r\nthe previous official forecast and an average of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 15.9N 116.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 16.3N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 16.7N 121.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 17.0N 123.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 17.4N 128.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 17.8N 132.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 18.5N 137.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nDarby is a little better organized this afternoon.  Visible\r\nsatellite imagery shows a well-defined convective band wrapping\r\nalmost 1.5 times around the center, which has resulted in the\r\ndevelopment of a banding-type eye.  Subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nestimates from the various agencies have remained steady or\r\nincreased slightly since this morning; therefore the initial\r\nintensity is raised to 75 kt.  Darby may still have to contend with\r\nsome northeasterly shear for another 12-24 hours, but the shear then\r\ndecreases after that time.  On the other hand, oceanic heat content\r\nvalues ahead of the hurricane fall off precipitously in about 12\r\nhours.  Considering these competing factors, some gradual\r\nstrengthening is expected during the next day or so, followed by\r\nslow weakening until the end of the forecast period due to cooler\r\nSSTs.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS and\r\nFlorida State Superensemble, which are at the top end of the\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nDarby continues moving westward, or 280/12 kt.  Strong mid-level\r\nridging to the north of the hurricane is expected to persist for\r\nmuch of the forecast period, keeping Darby on a westward or perhaps\r\nwest-northwestward path through day 5.  The track guidance remains\r\ntightly clustered, as it has been for the past couple of days,\r\nalthough the overall guidance envelope shifted northward on this\r\ncycle, especially through day 3.  Therefore, the official NHC track\r\nforecast has been adjusted northward, but it is near the southern\r\nedge of the guidance suite close to the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and\r\nUKMET.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 15.9N 118.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 16.3N 119.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 16.8N 121.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 17.2N 123.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 17.5N 125.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 17.8N 129.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 18.2N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 18.5N 138.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 14 2016\r\n\r\nDarby has become a little better organized during the past 6 hours\r\nwith a ragged 30-nmi-diameter eye having appeared within the central\r\ndense overcast. Upper-level outflow has continued to expand in all\r\nquadrants. The initial intensity has been increased to 80 kt based\r\non a blend of consensus subjective intensity estimates of T4.5/77 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB, and UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates of 83\r\nkt and 85 kt from AMSU and ADT, respectively.\r\n\r\nDarby's initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt after smoothing through\r\nsome wobbles in the track. Otherwise, there is no significant change\r\nto previous track or philosophy. The latest model guidance remains\r\nin excellent agreement on Darby moving west-northwestward to\r\nwestward for the next 48 hours, followed by a turn to a more due\r\nwest motion after that as the ridge to the north of the hurricane\r\nbuilds slightly southward and westward. The new NHC track forecast\r\nis basically just an extension of the previous advisory track, and\r\nremains near the southern edge of the guidance suite, following the\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nAlthough the vertical wind shear is expected to remain 10 kt or\r\nless throughout the 5-day forecast period, SSTs decreasing below\r\n27C and the large eye of Darby argue against any significant\r\nstrengthening during the next day or so. After that, SSTs\r\ndecreasing to less than 26C should induce gradual weakening by 36 h\r\nand beyond. However, the aforementioned weak wind shear conditions\r\nshould act to prevent a more typical rapid weakening trend from\r\noccurring. This is similar to the slower-than-normal weakening trend\r\nnoted with Tropical Storm Celia during the past couple of days while\r\nthat cyclone has been moving through a similar environment of low\r\nshear and cool waters near 25C. The official NHC intensity forecast\r\nis above the IVCN intensity consensus model, and closely follows a\r\nblend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 16.0N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 16.4N 120.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 16.9N 122.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 17.4N 124.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 17.6N 126.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 18.1N 130.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 18.3N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 18.6N 140.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nDarby has changed little in organization during the past several\r\nhours, with satellite imagery showing a ragged 25 n mi wide eye\r\nembedded in the central dense overcast.  Subjective satellite\r\nintensity estimates are 90 kt from TAFB and 77 kt from SAB, while\r\nvarious objective estimates from CIMSS are in the 75-80 kt range.\r\nBased on these data, the initial intensity remains at 80 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 280/10.  There is no change to the forecast\r\nphilosophy from the previous advisory, and there are no important\r\nchanges to the forecast track.  The model guidance is in excellent\r\nagreement that Darby will move generally west-northwestward for the\r\nnext 36-48 hours, followed by a more westward motion after, as the\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane builds slightly\r\nsouthward and westward. The new NHC track remains just a little to\r\nthe south of the center of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nSome strengthening is possible during the next 12 hours while the\r\ncenter of Darby remains over relatively warm water.  After that,\r\nthe forecast track takes the cyclone over decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures through 72-96 hours, possibly as cold as 24C.   This\r\nshould cause significant weakening despite an otherwise favorable\r\nshear environment.  It is possible that Darby could weaken more than\r\ncurrently forecast, as it appears that the sea surface temperatures\r\nnear 130W are colder than those used by the SHIPS model.  After 96\r\nhours, the forecast track takes the cyclone over sea surface\r\ntemperatures near 26C at the same time that it encounters a drier\r\nair mass.  Thus, slow weakening is expected to continue.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is slightly weaker than the previous forecast\r\nand is in best agreement with the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 16.1N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 16.5N 121.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 17.2N 123.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 17.6N 125.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 17.9N 127.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 19.0N 135.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 19.0N 140.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nDarby's eye became a little better defined earlier this morning,\r\nwith an elongated tail of convection developing within the eastern\r\nportion of the circulation.  Dvorak final-T numbers are now 4.5/77\r\nkt from TAFB, 5.0/90 kt from SAB, and 5.1/92 kt from the UW-CIMSS\r\nADT, so the initial intensity is raised to 85 kt on this advisory.\r\nThe eye appears to have opened up a bit on the latest satellite\r\npictures, so it's possible that Darby may have reached its peak\r\nintensity.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is now moving over sea surface temperatures a little\r\nless than 27C, and the ocean beneath the hurricane is expected to be\r\ncolder than 26C within the next 24-36 hours.  Since vertical shear\r\ncontinues to gradually decrease, Darby is forecast to maintain its\r\nintensity or only gradually weaken during the next day or two.\r\nAfter 48 hours, more marked weakening is anticipated due to SSTs\r\ngetting as cold as 24-25C.  No changes to the NHC intensity\r\nforecast, which is essentially a blend of the SHIPS model and\r\nFlorida State Superensemble early and the IVCN intensity consensus\r\nlate, were required from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nDarby appears to have turned west-northwestward and slowed down,\r\nand the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt.  An amplifying mid- to\r\nupper-level trough along the west coast of the United States is\r\nexpected to weaken the subtropical ridge during the next day or\r\ntwo.  This should allow the hurricane to continue moving\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 36 hours, but thereafter a westward\r\nturn is anticipated when a weaker Darby comes under the influence\r\nof lower-level steering winds.  There continues to be high\r\nconfidence in Darby's future path due to a tightly packed model\r\nsuite, and the updated NHC track forecast is shifted slightly\r\nnorthward only during the first 36 hours to account for the recent\r\nwest-northwestward turn.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 16.5N 120.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 17.0N 121.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 17.5N 123.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 17.9N 125.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 18.1N 127.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 18.6N 131.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 19.0N 136.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nDarby's eye has been clearing out during the past few hours with\r\nsome warming noted in infrared satellite imagery.  There are some\r\nbreaks in the surrounding convection due to infiltration of dry\r\nair, which has caused the subjective data-T numbers to oscillate\r\naround 4.5 and 5.0 since this morning.  However, CI numbers are 5.0\r\nfrom both TAFB and SAB, and ADT estimates are up to 5.3/97 kt. Based\r\non these data, Darby's maximum winds are increased to 90 kt.\r\n\r\nVertical shear over Darby has become quite low and should remain low\r\nduring the entire forecast period.  However, based on the latest\r\nglobal SST analysis, Darby will only be over waters warmer than\r\n26.5C for another 12-18 hours and is likely to reach SSTs as cold as\r\n24C in a couple of days. Therefore, additional significant\r\nstrengthening is not anticipated, and in fact, a gradual weakening\r\ntrend is shown in the official forecast for the entire five days.\r\nThis forecast is very similar to the previous one and remains\r\nrelatively close to the SHIPS guidance and the Florida State\r\nSuperensemble.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving west-northwestward, or 290/8 kt, to the\r\nsouth of a strong mid-level ridge extending west of northern\r\nMexico.  The ridge is forecast to weaken during the next 24 hours\r\ndue to an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough along the west\r\ncoast of the United States.  This should keep Darby moving\r\nwest-northwestward for the next few days, followed by a turn to the\r\nwest at the end of the forecast period once the weaker cyclone\r\nbecomes steered by lower-level steering flow.  It may sound like a\r\nbroken record, but the track guidance remains tightly clustered for\r\nthe entire forecast period.  The updated NHC forecast is\r\nessentially down the middle of the guidance envelope and not too\r\nmuch different from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 16.8N 121.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 17.6N 124.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 17.9N 126.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 18.2N 128.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 18.7N 132.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 19.5N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nDarby's eye became a little less well-defined and central\r\nconvection weakened somewhat a few hours ago, and Dvorak data\r\nT-number from both TAFB and SAB were lowered to 4.5.  Recently,\r\nhowever, cloud tops have been cooling around the eye and based on\r\nthe Dvorak Current Intensity rules the maximum winds are kept at 90\r\nkt for this advisory.  The hurricane has well-defined upper-level\r\noutflow over all but the southeastern portion of the circulation.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone is in a weak-shear environment and is likely\r\nto remain so for the next several days.  Whereas this would seem to\r\nfavor the system to maintain strength or even intensify further,\r\nthe future thermodynamic environment is not favorable.  Darby is\r\napproaching a cold tongue in the ocean and should pass over SSTs\r\nnear 24 deg C within a couple of days.  Satellite imagery also shows\r\nan extensive stratocumulus field ahead of the hurricane, which is\r\nindicative of stabler air.  These factors should cause Darby to\r\nbe on a weakening trend very soon.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis in close agreement with the model consensus, IVCN, and with the\r\nprevious NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nDarby has moved a little more to the right of the previous track\r\nover the past several hours, but using a 12-hour average yields a\r\nmotion estimate of 295/8.  The mid-level flow on the south side of\r\na subtropical ridge should cause the tropical cyclone to turn\r\nwestward over the next several days.  A slight northward adjustment\r\nwas made to the official forecast, mainly due to the more northward\r\nshort-term motion of Darby.  The new official forecast lies on the\r\nsouthern side of the guidance envelope and is close to the latest\r\nGFS and ECMWF solutions, which are themselves in close agreement.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 17.3N 122.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 17.7N 123.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 18.1N 125.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 18.4N 126.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 18.7N 128.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 19.3N 133.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 20.0N 138.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 20.0N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nDarby appears to be maintaining its strength.  Satellite images\r\nindicate that the eye of the hurricane has become a bit more\r\ndistinct and circular than it was several hours ago.  Although the\r\ncloud tops have warmed a bit in the eyewall, the convective pattern\r\nis quite symmetric.  A blend of the latest Dvorak classifications\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University\r\nof Wisconsin support holding the initial intensity at 90 kt.\r\n\r\nAlthough the wind shear is expected to remain light during the next\r\nseveral days, the oceanic conditions will soon become unfavorable\r\nfor strengthening.  Sea surface temperatures beneath the hurricane\r\nare expected to fall below 26 deg C in about 12 hours, and Darby is\r\nheaded for even cooler waters after that.  The cool waters combined\r\nwith a progressively drier air mass should induce a gradual\r\nweakening trend beginning later today and continuing during the\r\nnext several days.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update\r\nof the previous one and is not too different from the intensity\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nDarby has been wobbling around during the past 12-18 hours, but\r\nsmoothing through these positions yields an initial motion estimate\r\nof 295/9 kt.  A gradual turn toward the west is expected during\r\nthe next several days as a mid-level ridge builds to the north of\r\nthe tropical cyclone.  The model guidance is in fair agreement in\r\nthe future track of Darby, and the NHC forecast lies close to the\r\nvarious consensus aids.\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT pass from a few hours ago was helpful in estimating the\r\nsize of the wind field of Darby.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 17.6N 123.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 18.0N 124.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 18.4N 126.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 18.8N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 19.1N 129.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 19.8N 134.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 20.1N 138.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 19.5N 144.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nDarby continues to have a well-defined 20 n mi wide eye, which is\r\ncompletely encircled by convective cloud tops as cold as -70C.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates at 1200 UTC were rather conflicting.\r\nSubjective Dvorak numbers increased from six hours ago, but at the\r\nsame time objective ADT estimates have decreased.  Given this\r\ndiscrepancy, the initial intensity is kept at 90 kt.\r\n\r\nDarby is beginning to move over cooler water, with the eye having\r\nreached the 26C isotherm.  Although vertical shear over the cyclone\r\nis expected to be low for the next few days, SSTs will be dropping\r\nto as cold as 23C by 72 hours.  Therefore, gradual weakening is\r\nanticipated to begin soon, with Darby likely becoming a tropical\r\nstorm in about 48 hours.  Increasing shear should then contribute to\r\na faster weakening rate after 48 hours.  The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is very close to the IVCN intensity consensus during the\r\nentire forecast period, and it is a little lower than the previous\r\nforecast from 36 hours and beyond.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/9 kt.  The\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north of Darby is in the process of\r\nweakening due to an amplifying trough along the west coast of the\r\nUnited States.  Therefore, Darby is expected to continue moving\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 24 hours.  After that time, the\r\nweakening cyclone will come under the influence of lower-level\r\nsteering, causing it to move westward through the end of the\r\nforecast period.  There is very little spread among the track\r\nmodels, and the NHC track forecast is just an update of the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 17.8N 123.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 18.2N 125.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 18.6N 126.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 18.9N 128.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 19.1N 130.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 19.7N 135.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 19.9N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 19.0N 145.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nDarby appears to have been strengthening during the day despite\r\nmoving over increasingly cooler waters.  The deep convection is\r\nbecoming more symmetric, the eye has been warming intermittently,\r\nand the hurricane appears to be losing some of its outer banding.\r\nIn fact, Darby has developed a marginal annular structure.  Dvorak\r\nestimates have generally risen since this morning, and the initial\r\nintensity is raised to 100 kt.  This makes Darby the second major\r\nhurricane of the eastern North Pacific season.\r\n\r\nSea surface temperatures beneath Darby are currently around 25.5C\r\nand will continue to decrease over the next few days.  But, given\r\nthat vertical shear is expected to remain low through at least day\r\n3, and the hurricane's marginal annular structure, Darby is likely\r\nto remain relatively steady in intensity or only gradually weaken in\r\nthe short-term.  Faster weakening is still expected later in the\r\nforecast period due to the added effect of increasing shear.\r\nAlmost every reliable intensity model shows Darby weakening fast\r\nduring the next day or two.  However, the HWRF model is a notable\r\noutlier and keeps Darby as a hurricane at least through day 3.  The\r\nupdated NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous\r\nforecast during the first 36 hours and is near the top end of the\r\nmain pack of intensity models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 285/9 kt.  The subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth of Darby is weakening, but it should stay strong enough to\r\nsteer the hurricane west-northwestward or westward through the\r\nentire forecast period.  The new run of the ECMWF has sped up\r\ncompared to the other track models, but otherwise there is very\r\nlittle spread in the guidance envelope.  The updated NHC track\r\nforecast is closest to an average of the GFS and ECMWF and is very\r\nclose to the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 18.0N 124.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 18.3N 126.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 18.5N 128.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 18.8N 130.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 19.0N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 19.7N 136.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 19.7N 141.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 18.7N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nDarby has finally responded to the cooler SSTs, with a weakening in\r\nthe central convection and the eye becoming less distinct.  The\r\ncurrent intensity is reduced to 90 kt which is a blend of Data-T\r\nand Current Intensity numbers.  The cyclone is expected to\r\ntraverse ocean waters of near 25 deg C, along the northern edge of\r\nthe strong gradient of SST, for the next few days.  Even though the\r\nshear is forecast to remain low for the next 2-3 days, the\r\ncombination of cooler waters and a more stable air mass should\r\nresult in continued weakening. Near the end of the forecast period,\r\nthe SSTs under Darby will begin to warm a bit.  By that time,\r\nhowever, increasing west-southwesterly shear should prevent\r\nrestrengthening.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes are in good agreement, which is not surprising given\r\nthat an eye has been apparent, and the initial motion continues at\r\n285/9 kt.  A narrow mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nDarby is expected to remain in place for the next several days.\r\nThis steering pattern should cause the tropical cyclone to move on a\r\nmainly westward heading for the next 4 days or so.  By the end of\r\nthe forecast period, the weakening system should be steered more by\r\nthe low-level tradewind flow, and turn to a slightly south of\r\nwestward heading.  The official track forecast is very close to the\r\nprevious one, and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nA drifting buoy, ID 46906, near the southern eyewall of Darby,\r\nmeasured a pressure of 980.1 mb around 0200 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 18.2N 125.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 18.4N 127.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 18.7N 129.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 18.9N 131.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 19.1N 133.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 19.8N 138.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 19.6N 142.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 18.5N 147.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nDarby appears to be gradually weakening.  Although the annular\r\nhurricane still has a well organized cloud pattern and distinct eye,\r\nthe cloud tops in the eyewall have warmed during the last several\r\nhours.  The initial intensity for this advisory is lowered a little\r\nto 85 kt. This intensity estimate is based on a blend of the Dvorak\r\nFinal T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University\r\nof Wisconsin.  The hurricane is currently over cool, 25 deg C waters\r\nand embedded in a fairly stable air mass.  Since Darby is expected\r\nto move over even cooler water and into a drier air mass during the\r\nnext couple of days, steady weakening is predicted. After that time,\r\nDarby will likely track over slightly warmer water, but it will also\r\nbe moving into an environment of increasing westerly shear, which\r\nshould allow for some continued weakening. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is similar to the previous one and is in good agreement\r\nwith the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 8 kt.  This\r\ngeneral heading with a slight increase in forward speed is expected\r\nduring the next few days as mid-level ridging remains in place to\r\nthe north of the tropical cyclone.  Beyond that time, a motion\r\nslightly south of due west is forecast when the shallower system is\r\nsteered by the low- to mid-level flow.  The NHC official track\r\nforecast is nudged to the north of the previous one to come in line\r\nwith the latest consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 18.2N 126.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 18.3N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 18.6N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 19.0N 132.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 19.4N 134.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 20.1N 139.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 19.8N 143.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 18.9N 148.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nDarby's satellite presentation has changed very little since the\r\nlast advisory.  The hurricane still has a well-defined 10 n mi wide\r\neye and a symmetric central dense overcast with cloud tops as cold\r\nas -68C.  The initial intensity is held at 85 kt based on a blend\r\nof the latest Dvorak Current Intensity numbers, which are 5.0/90 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB and 4.7/82 kt from the UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nA narrow subtropical ridge lies to the north of the hurricane along\r\n30N, which is steering Darby westward, or 280/8 kt.  A westward or\r\nwest-northwestward motion is expected during the next four days due\r\nto the position and strength of the ridge, and the track guidance\r\nis in excellent agreement during this period.  By day 5, a weaker\r\nDarby is forecast to turn west-southwestward due to strong\r\nlow-level ridging north of the Hawaiian Islands.  There is a little\r\nmore spread among the track models at the end of the forecast\r\nperiod, but the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET are all south of the TVCE\r\nmulti-model consensus.  The updated forecast therefore remains\r\nsouth of TVCE and is a little faster than the previous forecast on\r\nday 5.\r\n\r\nDarby is now over SSTs between 24 and 25C and is expected to move\r\nover even colder waters in 12-24 hours.  Therefore, fairly quick\r\nweakening is forecast in the short term, and Darby is likely to lose\r\nhurricane strength on Monday.  SSTs are actually expected to begin\r\nincreasing again after 24 hours, which could slow the rate of\r\nweakening through the end of the forecast period. However,\r\nincreasing vertical shear and a drier mid-level air mass by days 4\r\nand 5 will likely prevent significant re-intensification over the\r\nwarmer waters to the southeast of Hawaii.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is near the SHIPS model through day 3 and then a little\r\nhigher than SHIPS on days 4 and 5, closer to the ICON intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 18.3N 127.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 18.4N 128.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 18.8N 130.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 19.3N 133.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 19.7N 135.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 20.1N 140.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 19.5N 145.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 18.5N 150.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nDarby's eye has filled in during the day, and microwave data\r\nindicate that the eyewall has opened up on its southeastern side.\r\nDvorak estimates are slowly coming down, and the initial intensity\r\nis lowered to 80 kt based on Dvorak Current Intensity numbers which\r\nrange from 77-90 kt from SAB, TAFB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  The center\r\nof Darby is approaching the 24C SST isotherm, and it should reach\r\nwaters around 23C in about 12 hours.  After that time, SSTs will\r\nslowly warm up to between 26-27C by the end of the forecast period.\r\nVertical shear is expected to remain low for another 2-3 days and\r\nthen increase to around 20 kt from the west by day 5.  Considering\r\nall these factors, fairly quick weakening is expected during the\r\nnext 24 hours while Darby is over the coldest water, followed by\r\nmore gradual weakening through day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nclosely follows the ICON intensity consensus for the entire forecast\r\nperiod, and Darby is likely to weaken to a tropical storm in about\r\n24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/8 kt.  Darby is expected to gain some\r\nlatitude through day 3 and then lose latitude on days 4 and 5, but\r\nthe ridge to the north should maintain the cyclone on a general\r\nwestward heading for the entire forecast period.  The track guidance\r\nremains tightly clustered with no noteworthy shifts in the overall\r\nenvelope on this forecast cycle.  The updated NHC forecast is\r\ntherefore very similar to the previous one and is close to a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 18.3N 128.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 18.5N 129.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 18.8N 132.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 19.2N 134.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 19.6N 136.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 19.8N 141.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 19.0N 146.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 18.0N 150.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nDarby has not weakened since the last advisory; in fact the\r\nhurricane looks a little more impressive than it did earlier today.\r\nAlthough central convection has not strengthened appreciably, the\r\nCDO has become more symmetric and the eye a little more distinct.\r\nThe current intensity estimate is held at 80 kt which is close to a\r\nconsensus of Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with ADT\r\nestimates from UW-CIMSS.  Darby is over SSTs near 24 deg C and will\r\nbe moving over slightly cooler waters overnight.  After that, the\r\ncyclone should traverse SSTs near 25 deg C through 48 hours.\r\nGradual weakening is predicted due to these somewhat cool waters,\r\nand Darby should lose hurricane status in about 24 hours with\r\nadditional weakening thereafter.  In 72 hours or so, the ocean under\r\nDarby will warm slightly to 25-26 deg C but by that time the\r\nvertical shear, which had been low, is forecast to increase and this\r\nshould prevent restrenghtening in the latter part of the forecast\r\nperiod.  The official intensity forecast is close to the latest\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nDarby continues on a westward track and the initial motion estimate\r\nremains 275/8 kt.  There is no reason to change the track forecast\r\nfrom the previous advisory package.  A narrow east-west oriented\r\nmid-level ridge is expected to be maintained to the north of Darby\r\nfor the next several days.  Late in the period, a mid-level high\r\nbuilds to the northwest of the tropical cyclone which should cause\r\na slightly south of west motion.  The official forecast lies a\r\nlittle south of the dynamical model consensus and is a blend of the\r\nlatest GFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 18.4N 129.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 18.6N 130.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 19.0N 133.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 19.4N 135.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 19.7N 137.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 19.5N 142.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 18.7N 147.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 18.0N 151.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nStable air and cool SSTs are taking a toll on Darby. Although the\r\nsystem still has a well organized circulation and eye feature, deep\r\nconvection has been on a steady decline since the previous advisory.\r\nIn fact, the cloud tops are now warmer than -50 deg C.  The initial\r\nwind speed is lowered to 70 kt, based on a blend of the Final T- and\r\nCI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Cool water and dry air should\r\ncontinue to affect Darby during the next few days, which will likely\r\nresult in continued weakening.  Beyond that time, SSTs are expected\r\nto increase along the forecast track, but the cyclone will also be\r\nmoving into an environment of increasing westerly shear. Given these\r\nmixed signals, little change in strength is shown at the end of the\r\nforecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of\r\nthe previous one and is close to the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nDarby is moving a 275/09 kt, and is being steered by a narrow\r\nmid-level ridge to its north.  A westward to west-northwestward\r\nmotion at a slightly faster pace is forecast during the 2 to 3 days\r\nwhile the ridge remains in place. After that time, a motion slightly\r\nsouth of due west is predicted when a mid-level high builds to the\r\nnorthwest of the tropical cyclone.  The latest guidance has shifted\r\na little to the north this cycle, and the NHC official track\r\nforecast has been nudged in that direction. Based on this forecast,\r\na much weaker Darby could be approaching the Hawaiian Islands at the\r\nend of the period.\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT-B pass around 0615 UTC was helpful in estimating the wind\r\nradii of Darby.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 18.5N 130.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 18.8N 131.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 19.3N 134.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 19.8N 136.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 20.0N 138.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 19.6N 143.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 18.6N 148.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 18.3N 151.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Darby continues to diminish this\r\nmorning with a couple of thin, fragmented curved bands located just\r\nto the southwest of the center of circulation.  The initial\r\nintensity is, therefore, lowered to 65 kt and agrees with a blend\r\nof the subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates.\r\nThe cyclone is currently moving over SSTs near 24C, but will soon\r\nbe traversing slightly warmer water during the next day or two.\r\nConsequently, there could be some convective banding redevelopment\r\nwhich could temporarily curtail weakening.  After that time, the\r\nglobal models all indicate an increase in westerly shear which is\r\nexpected to influence further weakening through the end of the\r\nperiod.  The NHC intensity forecast reflects gradual weakening and\r\nis slightly above the Decay SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt, to the south of a narrow\r\nmid-tropospheric ridge extending along 30N.  A generally westward to\r\nwest-northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is\r\nforecast during the next 72 hours.  Through the remaining portion\r\nof the forecast period, the aforementioned ridge is expected to\r\nbriefly strengthen, causing the cyclone to move just a bit south of\r\ndue west.  The official forecast is again shifted a little\r\nnorthward and is located between the multi-model consensus and a\r\nblend of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean guidance.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 18.7N 131.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 19.1N 132.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 19.7N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 20.1N 137.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 20.2N 139.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 19.6N 144.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 18.7N 149.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 18.8N 152.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nVisible and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show that Darby has\r\ndeveloped a banding eye feature during the past six hours.\r\nConsequently, Dvorak subjective intensity CI-numbers from TAFB\r\nand SAB support maintaining Darby at 65 kt for this advisory.\r\nDarby is currently moving over a slightly warmer ocean and is\r\nexpected to remain over these marginally warm SSTs through the\r\nperiod.  Accordingly, only gradual weakening is forecast during the\r\nnext several days.  Beyond the 48 hour period, however, gradually\r\nincreasing west-southwesterly shear and a more stable thermodynamic\r\nenvironment could potentially hasten the weakening trend, similar to\r\nwhat the LGEM and the Decay SHIPS models are indicating.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN multi-model\r\nconsensus, but remains above the Decay SHIPS and LGEM models beyond\r\nday 2.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt, as Darby is being steered\r\nwestward by a narrow subtropical ridge to the north.  There has been\r\nno change in the philosophy of the track forecast.  A generally\r\nwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected through\r\nthe period, with a brief turn slightly to the south of west\r\naround day 3.  The official NHC forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious advisory and sides with the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 19.0N 132.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 19.4N 133.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 19.9N 135.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 20.2N 138.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 20.1N 140.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 19.4N 145.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 18.9N 149.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/1800Z 19.4N 152.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":30,"Date":"2016-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nDarby still appears as a well-organized tropical cyclone on\r\ngeostationary imagery, with a symmetric CDO and occasional eye\r\nshowing up on enhanced infrared imagery.  Microwave imagery,\r\nhowever, shows that the system has a slight northward tilt with\r\nheight with the mid-level center located a few tenths of a degree\r\nnorth of the low-level center.  Dvorak classifications from SAB and\r\nTAFB still support hurricane strength, so the official intensity\r\nestimate remains at 65 kt.  Darby will be moving over marginal SSTs\r\nand into drier air with increasing shear during the next several\r\ndays.  Therefore, the cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken during\r\nthe forecast period.  The official forecast is a blend of the\r\nlatest SHIPS and LGEM model output through 72 hours and is a\r\nlittle above that guidance at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nBased on the microwave images, the center is positioned slightly\r\nsouth of the fixes from GOES imagery, and the resulting motion\r\nestimate is 280/11 kt.  The track forecast reasoning is about the\r\nsame as in the previous advisory.  Darby should continue on a\r\ngenerally westward heading to the south of a zonally-oriented\r\nmid-level subtropical ridge for the next couple of days.  Later in\r\nthe period, the cyclone should slow its forward speed as it nears a\r\nweakness in the ridge.  The official track forecast lies roughly in\r\nthe middle of the dynamical guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 19.1N 133.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 19.6N 134.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 20.0N 136.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 20.1N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 19.9N 141.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 19.0N 150.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/0000Z 20.0N 152.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Darby","Adv":31,"Date":"2016-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough deep convection has been decreasing since the previous\r\nadvisory, Darby still has a well-defined and tight circulation. The\r\ninitial intensity is held at 65 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak\r\nCI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, but the automated values from CIMSS at\r\nthe University of Wisconsin suggest that this estimate could be a\r\nlittle generous.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data indicate that the low-level center of Darby is\r\nlocated to the south of the eye feature seen in infrared satellite\r\nimages, which is likely the result of southerly shear. Using the\r\nmicrowave fixes, the initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A\r\ncontinued west-northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a\r\nmotion slightly south of due west on Wednesday while Darby is\r\nsteered by a narrow mid-level ridge to its north. By the end of the\r\nforecast period, a turn to the northwest is predicted when Darby\r\napproaches a trough to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is slightly faster than the previous one to\r\ncome in line with latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nDarby is expected to remain over cool water for the next few days,\r\nbefore it tracks over SSTs around 26 deg C to the east of the\r\nHawaiian Islands.  However, the system will also be moving into an\r\nenvironment of increasing southwesterly shear by the time it reaches\r\nthe warmer water.  Therefore, gradual weakening is predicted through\r\nthe period.  This forecast is the same as the previous one and is in\r\nbest agreement with the LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT-B pass from around 0600 UTC was helpful in estimating the\r\nsize of Darby's wind field.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 19.4N 134.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 19.8N 136.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 20.0N 138.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 20.0N 140.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 19.8N 142.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 19.3N 147.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 19.4N 150.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  24/0600Z 20.5N 153.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":32,"Date":"2016-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery shows that the inner core cloud tops\r\nhave warmed since last night and deep convective banding has become\r\nfragmented.  Although Darby has exhibited an intermittent ragged eye\r\nfeature, a blend of the subjective Final-T and CI-numbers, and\r\nthe objective ADT estimate, yield an intensity of 60 kt.\r\nAdditionally, the ambiguity solution of an earlier ASCAT overpass\r\nrevealed only a couple of 50-55 kt winds over the northern quadrant.\r\nAccordingly, Darby's initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt for\r\nthis advisory.  The cyclone is currently traversing sub-25C water,\r\nbut should be moving back over slightly warmer water east of\r\nthe Hawaiian Islands near the 36 hour period.  Darby, however, will\r\nalso be moving into a more stable thermodynamic environment and\r\nmodest southwesterly shear around the same time.  Therefore, these\r\ncontributing factors are expected to cause Darby to gradually weaken\r\nthrough the period.  The official intensity forecast is based\r\nprimarily on the model consensus, IVCN, which includes the HWRF\r\nhurricane model, and is above both the SHIPS and LGEM\r\nstatistical-dynamical intensity models.\r\n\r\nThe track forecast philosophy remains similar to the previous\r\nforecast.  The cyclone should continue on a generally westward\r\nheading to the south of a mid-tropospheric ridge anchored along 30N\r\nfor the next few days.  At the 96 hour period, Darby is forecast\r\nto slow its forward speed as it encounters a growing weakness in the\r\nridge while a mid- to upper-level low digs north of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands.  This synoptic feature should turn Darby gradually\r\nnorthwestward, east of the Big Island.  The NHC forecast is located\r\nbetween the TVCE multi-model consensus and both the GFS and ECMWF\r\nensemble mean guidance which are both situated north of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 19.8N 135.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 20.1N 137.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 20.1N 139.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 20.1N 141.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 19.7N 143.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 19.4N 148.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 19.9N 151.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  24/1200Z 21.6N 153.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":33,"Date":"2016-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough Darby continues to exhibit a well-defined circulation, deep\r\nconvection, in the form of ragged bands, continues to gradually\r\ndiminish in coverage.  The initial intensity is subsequently lowered\r\nto 55 kt and reflects the Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB\r\nand SAB.  The cyclone is forecast to move over marginal SSTs and\r\ninto a drier, more stable air mass with increasing modest\r\nsouthwesterly shear during the next several days.  The official\r\nforecast indicates slight weakening during the next day or so, with\r\nvery little change in strength through 96 hours as Darby traverses\r\na slightly warmer ocean.  Thereafter, Darby is expected to again\r\nweaken as it gains latitude and moves into a region of strong\r\nsouthwesterly shear.  The official forecast is weighed heavily on\r\nthe IVCN consensus and lies above the LGEM and Decay SHIPS.  It\r\nshould be noted that longer-range, i.e. day 4 and 5, intensity\r\npredictions have little skill.\r\n\r\nA series of microwave images reveal an apparent northward\r\ntilt with height of the cyclone.  Consequently, the conventional\r\nsatellite position estimates have been consistently a little north\r\nof the microwave fixes.  Using a blend of these fixes, the initial\r\nmotion is estimated at 280/11 kt.  The synoptic reasoning for the\r\ntrack forecast has not changed, as Darby will be steered generally\r\nwestward during the next 4 days.  Through the remaining portion of\r\nthe forecast, the cyclone is expected to decrease its forward speed\r\nand gradually begin to recurve northwestward into a growing weakness\r\ncaused by an amplifying mid- to upper-level trough north of the\r\nHawaiian Islands.  The ECMWF global model has shifted farther south\r\nthan the previous runs.  This shift has also nudged the multi-model\r\nconsensus south as well, and the official forecast follows suit and\r\nis close the GFS and ECMWF ensemble mean guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 19.9N 136.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 20.0N 138.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 20.0N 140.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 19.7N 142.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 19.4N 145.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 19.2N 149.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 19.9N 152.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  24/1800Z 21.6N 153.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":34,"Date":"2016-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nDarby continues to maintain deep convection near its center, and in\r\nfact the convective cloud tops have cooled a bit over the past\r\nseveral hours.  The current intensity estimate, 55 kt, is unchanged\r\nfrom the past advisory and is consistent with the latest Dvorak\r\nestimate from TAFB.  The storm should encounter modestly increasing\r\nvertical shear and drier air over the next several days, but will be\r\nmoving over slightly warmer waters.  These factors should result in\r\nonly a slow rate of weakening over the forecast period, and this is\r\nreflected in the official intensity forecast, which is near the\r\nmodel consensus and above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.  It\r\nis worth noting however, that longer-range intensity prediction has\r\nlittle skill.\r\n\r\nBased on geostationary and microwave fixes, the westward motion,\r\n280/11 kt, continues.  The track forecast reasoning has not\r\nchanged.  A mid-level subtropical ridge extending westward from the\r\nsouthern Great Plains should continue to steer Darby on a westward\r\nor slightly south-of-westward heading for the next few days.  In the\r\nlatter part of the forecast period, a mid-level cyclone to the north\r\nof the Hawaiian Islands should cause Darby to turn toward the\r\nnorthwest.  The official forecast is very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.  However, the GFS and ECMWF ensemble tracks show\r\nconsiderable spread on days 3-5, indicating a significant amount of\r\nuncertainty in the forecast track late in the period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 20.0N 137.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 20.0N 139.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 19.8N 141.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 19.5N 144.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 19.2N 146.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 19.1N 150.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 20.2N 152.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  25/0000Z 22.0N 154.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":35,"Date":"2016-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016\r\n\r\nDarby has changed little in structure during the past few hours.\r\nDeep convection with cloud tops as cold as -60C continue near the\r\ncenter, and recent microwave images showed a nearly closed\r\nmid-level ring.  Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 from\r\nTAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is therefore held at 55 kt.\r\nDarby is over SSTs around 25C and is heading toward warmer waters.\r\nHowever, vertical shear is expected to increase in the next 24-36\r\nhours.  Interestingly, the intensity models aren't in agreement on\r\nwhat will happen with Darby's intensity during this period.  While\r\nthe SHIPS and LGEM models indicate steady weakening over the next\r\nfew days, the HWRF and Florida State Superensemble actually show\r\nsome re-intensification in 24-36 hours.  Due to these competing\r\nsignals, the NHC official forecast shows little change in intensity\r\nduring the next 48 hours, followed by gradual weakening on days\r\n3-5.  This updated forecast is not too different from the previous\r\none, except that it delays steady weakening until after 48 hours.\r\n\r\nDarby is moving westward with an initial motion of 270/11 kt.  The\r\ncyclone is located to the south of the subtropical ridge, which\r\nshould maintain a westward motion for the next three days.  After\r\nthat time, a retrograding mid- to upper-level low north of the\r\nHawaiian Islands will create a break in the ridge, causing Darby to\r\nturn northwestward and north-northwestward on days 4 and 5.  With\r\nthe exception of the GFDL, there is very little cross-track spread\r\namong the model guidance.  However, there are some noticeable speed\r\ndifferences, with the ECMWF and UKMET showing more acceleration\r\nafter the turn compared to the GFS and HWRF models.  For now, the\r\nNHC official forecast, which is very similar to the previous\r\nforecast, splits the difference and is near a consensus of the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 20.0N 138.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 19.8N 140.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 19.5N 142.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 19.2N 145.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 18.9N 147.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 19.0N 151.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 20.0N 152.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  25/0600Z 23.0N 154.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Darby","Adv":36,"Date":"2016-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP052016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052016\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016\r\n\r\nDarby continues to be relatively steady state, with convective cloud\r\ntops of -50C to -60C near the center.  An AMSR2 pass at 1017Z showed\r\nthat the low-level center is located southwest of the mid-level\r\ncenter seen in geostationary imagery.  The initial intensity is set\r\nto 50 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of T3.5/55\r\nkt from TAFB and T3.0/45 kt from SAB.  Darby will move over slightly\r\nwarmer waters in the next couple of days, but this should be\r\ncounteracted by moderate southwesterly shear and a generally dry\r\natmospheric environment.  The SHIPS and LGEM models show steady\r\nweakening, while the dynamical models are showing some\r\nrestrengthening through 48 hours.  Given this, the official forecast\r\ncontinues to show little change in intensity during the first 48\r\nhours.  The shear increases late in the period while SSTs will cool\r\nbelow 26C along the track, which should result in some slow\r\nweakening.  The new NHC forecast is close to the latest intensity\r\nconsensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/10.  Darby is expected to move a\r\nlittle south of due west for the next 48 hours under the influence\r\nof a mid-level ridge building southeastward from north of the\r\nHawaiian Islands.  After that time, a break in the ridge develops as\r\nan upper-level low retrogrades westward well north of Hawaii, which\r\nshould cause Darby to turn sharply northwestward by day 4 and then\r\nnorth-northwestward on day 5.  Most of model guidance remains in\r\ngood agreement on this track scenario, however, there are still some\r\nforward speed differences late in the period.  The ECMWF and UKMET\r\nare faster by days 4 and 5, while the GFS and GEFS ensemble mean are\r\nslower.  Also, the latest HWRF is well south and west of the rest of\r\nthe guidance envelope.  The new NHC track forecast is near the\r\nprevious one through 48 hours and has been shifted a little to the\r\nleft after that time, and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions\r\nand their respective ensemble means.\r\n\r\nThe next advisory on Darby will be issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 19.9N 139.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 19.7N 141.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 19.4N 144.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 19.0N 146.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 18.8N 148.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 20.5N 153.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 155.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n400 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nA 1600 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated that the weather\r\nsystem located off the coast of Mexico has developed a well-defined\r\ncenter of circulation, and maximum winds were around 40 kt.  Based\r\non these data, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm\r\nFrank, the sixth tropical storm to form in the eastern Pacific this\r\nmonth.  Frank currently has broken convective outer banding, but a\r\nburst of convection is developing near the estimated center.\r\n\r\nWith the recent formation, the initial motion is somewhat uncertain\r\nbut is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/12 kt.  Frank is\r\nlocated to the south of a large and strong mid-level anticyclone\r\nwhich is centered over the Southern Plains of the United States.\r\nAlthough ridging will remain across the southern U.S. and northern\r\nMexico, the main center of the anticyclone is expected to migrate\r\nwestward over the Pacific Ocean during the next 48 hours, leaving a\r\nminor break in the ridge near the Baja California peninsula.  As a\r\nresult, Frank is expected to maintain a northwestward heading for\r\nthe entire forecast period but with a gradual decrease in forward\r\nspeed.  There is a normal amount of spread in the track guidance,\r\nand the initial NHC forecast is very near the various multi-model\r\nconsensus aids.  Although the track is currently off the coast of\r\nMexico, there is still enough uncertainty that interests in the\r\nsouthern portion of the Baja California peninsula should monitor\r\nthe progress of Frank.  In fact, based on the wind speed\r\nprobabilities, there is currently a 1-in-4 chance of tropical storm\r\nforce winds affecting locations in extreme southern Baja California\r\nSur during the next 5 days.\r\n\r\nFrank is currently over warm SSTs over 29C, and waters are expected\r\nto remain warm for the next four days or so.  Although some\r\nvertical shear could persist for much of the forecast period, the\r\nstatistical-dynamical guidance and the HWRF show fairly quick\r\nstrengthening over the next few days.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nfollows suit and is near the higher end of the guidance, making\r\nFrank a hurricane in about 36 hours.  Some weakening is anticipated\r\nafter day 3 due to cooler waters and the possible continued shear.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 14.9N 104.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 16.0N 105.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 17.2N 107.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 18.2N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 19.1N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 20.8N 112.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 22.3N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 23.5N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n1000 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nConvention and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the\r\nconvection associated with Frank has become better organized, with\r\na strong burst occurring just south of the center.  Based on the\r\nprevious scatterometer data and the increase in organization, the\r\ninitial intensity is increased to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the current motion is 310/15, a little faster\r\nthan earlier.  Frank is located to the south of a large and strong\r\nmid-level anticyclone which is centered over the Southern Plains of\r\nthe United States and has a ridge extending well westward into the\r\neastern Pacific.  The dynamical models forecast a slight\r\nweakness in the ridge over the northeastern Pacific during the next\r\nfew days.  The ECMWF shows a stronger weakness and thus forecasts\r\nFrank to move farther north, while the GFS keeps a stronger ridge\r\nand forecasts a more westward motion.  Overall, the guidance\r\nenvelope has shifted westward away from the coast of Mexico during\r\nthe later part of the forecast period, and the official forecast\r\nfollows suit.  However, there is still enough uncertainty that\r\ninterests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula\r\nshould monitor the progress of Frank.\r\n\r\nFrank is expected to remain over warm water for the next 3 days or\r\nso.  However, easterly shear could inhibit intensification,\r\nespecially if the stronger upper-level winds forecast by the ECMWF\r\nverify. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nforecast in showing strengthening through 72 hours, and like the\r\nprevious forecast it lies near the upper end of the intensity\r\nguidance.  Weakening is forecast after 72 hours due to decreasing\r\nsea surface temperatures along the forecast track and continued\r\nshear.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 16.1N 105.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 17.0N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 17.9N 108.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 18.6N 109.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 19.4N 110.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 21.0N 113.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 22.5N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 23.5N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized with\r\ndeep convection near the center and a fairly well-established\r\nupper-level outflow. However, Dvorak estimates as well as data from\r\na recent ASCAT pass indicate that the winds remain at 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is forecast to move over warm waters and within a\r\nfavorable shear environment. Given these conditions, Frank is\r\nexpected to intensify and become a hurricane over the weekend. The\r\nNHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and is consistent with\r\nthe intensity guidance. The chances of rapid intensification\r\nprovided by the SHIPS model is only 20 percent. By the end of the\r\nforecast period, Frank should encounter cooler waters and begin to\r\nweaken.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving toward the\r\nnorthwest or 310 degrees at 10 kt. Global models amplify the\r\nsubtropical ridge controlling the motion of Frank, and this\r\nsteering pattern will likely force the cyclone on a general\r\nwest-northwest track with a decrease in forward speed. The track\r\nmodel envelope shifted a little southward beyond 2 days, and\r\nconsequently, the NHC forecast was adjusted southward a little bit.\r\nAlthough the forecast track keeps Frank well removed from Mexico,\r\ninterests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula\r\nshould continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 16.7N 106.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 17.5N 107.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 18.3N 109.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 19.0N 110.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 19.6N 111.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 20.5N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 21.5N 116.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 22.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n900 AM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nFrank's deep convection is displaying more of a shear pattern this\r\nmorning with a sharp edge to the infrared cloud top temperatures on\r\nits northeastern side.  All intensity analyses - SAB and TAFB\r\nDvorak, ADT, and AMSU - are in good agreement in keeping the\r\nintensity at 45 kt.  The earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass indicates\r\nthat Frank is a relatively small tropical storm at this time.\r\n\r\nFrank should experience moderate to low tropospheric vertical shear,\r\nwarm to hot SSTs, and a moist, unstable atmosphere for the next two\r\nto three days.  Thus steady intensification is likely.  Beyond day\r\nthree, the tropical cyclone should encounter a more hostile\r\nenvironment with cool SSTs to the west of Baja California with a\r\nmore dry, stable atmosphere.  Gradual to steady weakening should\r\ncommence around day three.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged\r\nand is based upon a three member consensus of the LGEM, SHIPS, and\r\nHWRF models.\r\n\r\nA couple timely AMSR2 and SSMIS microwave images were helpful in\r\ndetermining the location of Frank's center.  The system is moving\r\ntoward the northwest at about 12 kt, somewhat faster than estimated\r\nearlier. Frank should turn toward the west-northwest during the next\r\nfew days at a slower rate of forward speed, as the east-west\r\nextended deep-layer ridge to its north weakens some.  The global\r\nmodels and the HWRF hurricane model are in close agreement on this\r\nscenario and the NHC track prediction has been shifted southward\r\nbetween the previous forecast and the consensus mean.\r\n\r\nAlthough the forecast track keeps Frank well removed from Mexico,\r\ninterests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula\r\nshould continue to monitor the progress of this cyclone.  As none\r\nof the GFS, ECWMF, or UKMET ensemble members predict a track over\r\nor close to Baja California, it would appear that the small threat\r\nto Baja California is diminishing.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 17.3N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 18.1N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 18.5N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 19.0N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 19.5N 113.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 21.3N 116.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 22.5N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nThe deep convection associated with Frank has been pulsing this\r\nafternoon and a thin upper-level overcast covers the center.  A\r\n1626Z ASCAT-A scatterometer overpass indicated peak winds of about\r\n45 kt. This is consistent with the Dvorak current intensity numbers\r\nof 3.0 from both SAB and TAFB, so 45 kt remains the intensity at\r\nthis time.  The scatterometer also showed that Frank remains a\r\nrather small tropical storm.\r\n\r\nFrank should experience moderate tropospheric vertical shear, warm\r\nto hot SSTs, and a moist, unstable atmosphere for the next two to\r\nthree days.  Thus gradual to steady intensification is likely, even\r\nthough Frank has been steady state for almost a day now.  Beyond day\r\nthree, the tropical cyclone should encounter a more hostile\r\nenvironment with cool SSTs to the west of Baja California with a\r\nmore dry, stable atmosphere.  Gradual to steady weakening should\r\ncommence around day three.  The NHC intensity forecast is slightly\r\nbelow that from the previous advisory and is based upon the HWRF and\r\nSHIPS models through three days and upon the SHIPS and LGEM models\r\nat the longer lead times.\r\n\r\nThe scatterometer pass also provided an accurate observation of\r\nFrank's center location and the cyclone remains heading toward the\r\nnorthwest at about 12 kt. Frank should turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest during the next few days at a slower rate of forward\r\nspeed, as the east-west extended deep-layer ridge to its north\r\nweakens some.  All of the reliable global and regional hurricane\r\nmodels are in close agreement on this scenario and the NHC track\r\nprediction is very similar to the previous advisory through day four\r\nand somewhat south of the previous prediction at day five.\r\n\r\nWith the forecast track now well offshore from the coast of Mexico,\r\nany direct impacts to land are unlikely.  However, swells associated\r\nwith Frank will affect the coasts of southern Baja California and\r\nthe state of Sinaloa beginning on Saturday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 17.9N 108.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 18.5N 109.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 18.8N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 19.3N 112.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 19.8N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 20.8N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n900 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Frank has become a little better\r\norganized during the past several hours, with conventional and\r\nmicrowave satellite imagery showing a band trying to wrap around\r\nthe east side of the center.  The initial intensity is increased\r\nto 55 kt in best agreement with the intensity estimate from SAB and\r\nthe CIMSS ADT.  An apparent center at the top of the convection is\r\na little south of the low-level center seen in microwave imagery,\r\nwhich may be due to ongoing northerly shear.\r\n\r\nFrank has turned west-northwestward with the motion now 295/10.\r\nThe storm is on the south side of a east-west oriented deep-layer\r\nridge extending westward from the southern United States into the\r\neastern Pacific.  The dynamical models forecast this ridge to\r\nremain in place with slight weakening during the next several days.\r\nThis should allow Frank to continue generally west-northwestward\r\nwith some decrease in forward speed through the forecast period.\r\nThe track guidance has changed little since the previous advisory,\r\nand the new forecast track is an update of the previous forecast\r\nthat lies near the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFrank should remain in a moderate shear environment and over warm\r\nsea surface temperatures for the next 48 hours or so, which should\r\nallow slow strengthening.  After that time, decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures along the forecast track should cause gradual\r\nweakening.  The new intensity forecast has a slightly higher peak\r\nintensity than that of the previous advisory, and it is in good\r\nagreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nSwells associated with Frank will affect the coasts of southern Baja\r\nCalifornia and the state of Sinaloa beginning on Saturday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 18.3N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 18.7N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 19.7N 113.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 20.2N 114.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has changed little during the past several hours.\r\nMicrowave data continue to show that the low-level center is\r\non the northern edge of the deep convection due to shear. An\r\naverage of the latest satellite intensity estimates indicates that\r\nthe winds remain at 55 kt at this time. The environment continues to\r\nbe favorable for strengthening, and only a small decrease in the\r\nshear should result in Frank becoming a hurricane. In fact, NHC\r\nforecasts this to occur within the next 24 hours. Intensity guidance\r\nis not aggressive, and most of the models suggest that Frank will\r\nreach its peak intensity of around 70 kt in about 36 hours with\r\nweakening after that time.  The NHC forecast follows that guidance\r\ntrend.\r\n\r\nFrank is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 kt.\r\nThe cyclone is embedded within the flow around a strong subtropical\r\nridge extending from the western United States westward across\r\nthe Pacific. This steering pattern is forecast to persist, and will\r\nforce Frank to move on a general west-northwest to west track during\r\nthe next several days. Since the track models are tightly clustered\r\nduring the next 2 to 3 days, there is high confidence that the\r\ncyclone will continue on the same general track. Frank will be\r\npassing well south of the Baja California peninsula during the next\r\nseveral hours and be near Socorro Island later today. The NHC\r\nforecast is very close to the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nSwells associated with Frank are probably already affecting the\r\ncoasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of\r\nSinaloa.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 18.5N 109.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 19.0N 110.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 19.7N 112.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 20.2N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 20.7N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 20.7N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 21.0N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 21.5N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n900 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nNortheasterly shear continue to affect Frank, with the latest\r\nmicrowave data showing the center remaining on the northern edge of\r\nthe deep convection.  The latest Dvorak estimates support\r\nmaintaining the initial wind speed of 55 kt.  The intensity forecast\r\nis becoming a little trickier since the latest guidance is showing\r\nmore northeasterly shear.  Consequently, Frank has less of a chance\r\nto intensify, and could reach a peak intensity sooner than\r\npreviously anticipated.  The new wind speed forecast has been\r\nreduced 5 to 10 kt during the first few days in response to these\r\nchanges, but is still on the high side of the guidance.  Marginal\r\nSSTs are expected to cause Frank to weaken in a couple of days, and\r\nremnant low status is forecast at day 5 due to the cool waters.\r\n\r\nSome timely microwave images indicate the storm continues to move\r\ntoward the west-northwest at 7 kt.  Frank should remain beneath the\r\nsubtropical ridge for the next several days, which will likely steer\r\nthe cyclone generally west-northwestward during that time except for\r\na brief westward motion expected in a couple days of days due to the\r\nridge temporarily strengthening.  The storm will be passing well\r\nsouth of the Baja California peninsula during the next several hours\r\nand be near Socorro Island later today.  Guidance has changed little\r\nsince the last advisory, and the NHC track forecast remains close to\r\nthe latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nSwells associated with Frank are probably already affecting the\r\ncoasts of the southern Baja California peninsula and the state of\r\nSinaloa.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 18.8N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 19.2N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 19.9N 112.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 20.4N 113.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 20.7N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 20.8N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 22.5N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nConvection continues to pulse near the center of Frank, with some\r\ntilt of the circulation apparent on the latest satellite images.\r\nNortheasterly shear has been a bit stronger than forecast, and\r\nthis has seemingly prevented any intensification of the cyclone.\r\nSatellite estimates continue to support an initial wind speed of 55\r\nkt.  With the models keeping the shear at moderate levels for the\r\nnext several days, it makes sense to no longer call for any\r\nsignificant strengthening of the storm.  Weakening should begin on\r\nMonday due to Frank encountering marginal water temperatures.  Model\r\nguidance has come into better agreement on Frank no longer becoming\r\na hurricane, and the latest NHC intensity forecast is decreased from\r\nthe previous one, near the model consensus.  Remnant low status is\r\nforecast at day 5 due to 23 deg C waters near the forecast path of\r\nFrank and plentiful dry & stable air nearby.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and visible images show the storm is moving a bit slower\r\nto the west-northwest, now at 6 kt.  Frank should move to the\r\nwest-northwest or west for the next several days beneath the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  Only small changes were made to the previous\r\nforecast with a slight shift northward in the short term\r\nand a westward nudge in the long term.  The new official forecast\r\nis close to the dynamical model consensus, minus the GFDL.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 19.1N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 19.5N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 20.2N 112.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 20.6N 114.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 20.8N 115.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 20.9N 117.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 21.8N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 22.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n900 PM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Frank has again increased this evening,\r\nalthough microwave imagery indicates that it remains south of the\r\nlow-level center due to moderate northeasterly shear.  Various\r\nsubjective and objective satellite intensity estimates average near\r\n55 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nThe center of Frank has wobbled a bit during the past few hours,\r\nbut a longer-term motion is 305/7, which is a little to the right\r\nof the previous advisory.  Frank should move slowly to the\r\nwest-northwest or west through the forecast period on the south side\r\nof the subtropical ridge over the northeastern Pacific.  The new\r\nforecast track is nudged a little north of the previous track early\r\nin the forecast period based on the initial position and motion, and\r\nthen is near the previous track toward the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nFrank should be over sea surface temperatures of higher than 26 deg\r\nC for about 48 more hours.  However, it appears unlikely that the\r\ncurrent shear will decrease enough to allow Frank to strengthen into\r\na hurricane during that time.  The new intensity forecast follows\r\nthe previous forecast, as well as the SHIPS and LGEM models, in\r\nkeeping the intensity at 55 kt for 24 hours, followed by slight\r\nweakening from 36-48 hours.  After 48 hours, decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures and encroaching dry air should cause Frank to decay,\r\nwith the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 19.6N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 20.5N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 20.9N 114.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 21.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 22.0N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nFrank's cloud pattern has not changed appreciably in organization\r\nsince the last advisory.  The cloud pattern remains characterized by\r\na ball of deep convection with some evidence of outer banding.  An\r\n0408 UTC Ascat-B overpass suggested winds of around 55 kt, at best.\r\nThe initial intensity estimate is therefore held at this value.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/07.  A weak mid- to upper-level\r\nperturbation near the Baja California peninsula could be responsible\r\nfor Frank's more northwesterly motion today, which is forecast to\r\npersist for a little longer.  Once this feature dissipates in a day\r\nor so, Frank should be steered west-northwestward or westward at a\r\nrelatively slow forward speed to the south of a subtropical ridge\r\ncentered over the southwestern United States.  The track guidance is\r\nin generally good agreement on this scenario, though there are some\r\nspeed differences between the various solutions.  The NHC forecast\r\ntrack represents a blend of the ECMWF and GFS solutions and is\r\nslightly north of the previous forecast after 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has already moved out of the warmest waters of the\r\nbasin and is forecast to reach sub-26 deg C in about 60 hours.\r\nThis would seem to still give Frank an opportunity to strengthen\r\nsome, but northeasterly to easterly vertical shear over the storm is\r\nnot forecast to abate.  The NHC intensity forecast thus keeps Frank\r\nat the same strength for a day or so and then shows slow weakening.\r\nFurther weakening should occur by day 3 when Frank reaches\r\nsignificantly cooler waters and becomes embedded in a drier and more\r\nstable air mass.  The guidance suggests that Frank should become a\r\nremnant low in about 4 days, and so does the official forecast.  The\r\nnew forecast is close to a blend of the statistical-dynamical\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 19.9N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 20.2N 112.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 20.7N 113.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 21.0N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 21.1N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 21.9N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 22.9N 122.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/0600Z 23.1N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n900 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nFrank remains a sheared tropical cyclone with microwave data showing\r\nthe center of circulation located near the northern edge of a large\r\nmass of deep convection.  The advisory wind speed is kept at 55 kt,\r\nbetween the Dvorak estimates that range from 50 to 65 kt.  The main\r\ncontrolling factor for Frank's intensity is expected to be gradually\r\ncooling waters since northeasterly shear is forecast to continue at\r\nabout the same magnitude for the next few days.  Slow weakening is\r\nforecast by late Monday and beyond due to the cyclone moving over\r\nmarginal waters and eventually into a dry and stable air mass.  The\r\nnew forecast is very close to the previous interpolated official\r\nprediction, and is a bit lower than the intensity consensus at long\r\nrange.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data indicate that Frank has turned to the west-\r\nnorthwest, now moving at 6 kt.  A ridge centered over the\r\nsouthwestern United States seems to be building in over northwestern\r\nMexico, causing a mid- to upper-level trough west of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula to move far enough away from Frank to have less\r\ninfluence.  Frank should be steered west-northwestward or westward\r\nat a relatively slow forward speed to the south of that ridge for\r\nthe next several days.  Other than some minor speed differences, the\r\nguidance continues to be in relatively good agreement, and the\r\nlatest NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous\r\none.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 20.3N 112.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 21.0N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 21.2N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 21.3N 116.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 22.2N 119.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 23.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/1200Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nSome impressive changes have occurred with Frank in the last several\r\nhours.  The cloud structure has evolved from a sheared pattern into\r\na more banded central dense overcast configuration.  A 1911Z GPM\r\nmicrowave pass shows the development of a sharp hooking feature,\r\nindicative of a notable increase in organization.  ASCAT data caught\r\nthe eastern side of the circulation, with 55-kt maximum winds.  Due\r\nto the low bias of the instrument at that intensity and the\r\nincreasing inner-core structure, the initial wind speed is set to\r\n60 kt, near the TAFB classification.\r\n\r\nThe shear appears to have abated enough to allow Frank to intensify,\r\nand Frank is now forecast to become a hurricane before reaching more\r\nmarginal water temperatures.  The bulk of the guidance is also\r\nshowing a similar solution, although the COAMPS-TC and the GFDL do\r\nnot show any further strengthening.  Frank is expected to become a\r\nremnant low in 3 to 4 days while it moves over cool 23 deg C waters.\r\nThe latest NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one,\r\nclose to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, with a bit more\r\nweight on the latter model.\r\n\r\nFrank has slowed down and turned westward recently according to the\r\nmicrowave data, although a longer term motion is still\r\nwest-northwestward at about 5 kt.  While a ridge to the north of the\r\nstorm should steer Frank generally westward to west-northwestward\r\nfor the next few days, there is a big difference emerging in the\r\nlatest guidance on what happens thereafter.  It seems like the track\r\nforecast is closely related to the depth and intensity of the\r\ncyclone, with a stronger storm probably more likely to take a\r\nwest-northwest or northwest track at long range like the new ECMWF\r\nmodel. Conversely, a weaker system would likely turn to the\r\nwest-southwest, as shown by the GFS and its ensemble.  Few changes\r\nare made to the forecast on this cycle since the model consensus has\r\nnot moved much, but it would not be surprising to see a northward\r\ntrend in the forecast if Frank becomes a stronger and deeper\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 20.0N 112.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 20.2N 113.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 20.5N 114.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 20.7N 115.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 21.0N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 22.1N 120.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 22.8N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/1800Z 23.0N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n900 PM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nAfter the earlier burst of strong convection, thunderstorm activity\r\nin the inner-core region of Frank has deteriorated with cloud tops\r\nhaving warmed significantly since the previous advisory. Moreover, a\r\n2217Z AMSU microwave pass indicated that the eyewall convection had\r\nbecome fragmented. The initial intensity remains at 60 kt for this\r\nadvisory, which is close to the average of the 0000Z subjective and\r\nobjective satellite intensity estimates.\r\n\r\nFrank has continued to slow down and is now moving 275/04 kt. Frank\r\nhas made a westerly jog for the past 12 h, possibly due to the sharp\r\nincreases and decreases in the inner-core structure during that\r\ntime. However, the consensus of the global and regional models calls\r\nfor the cyclone to resume a west-northwestward motion by early\r\nMonday. That motion is forecast to throughout at least 72 h as Frank\r\nmoves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical\r\nridge. By 96-120 h, the cyclone is forecast to weaken to shallow\r\nremnant low pressure system, which should then be steered more\r\nwestward by the low-level easterly trade wind flow. The official\r\nforecast track is similar to the previous advisory track and follows\r\nthe consensus track model TVCN.\r\n\r\nAlthough the intensity is forecast to remain steady for the next 24\r\nhours, Frank is expected to remain over SSTs greater than 26 deg C\r\nand in a low vertical wind shear environment during that time, which\r\nshould provide the cyclone with the opportunity to mix out the\r\ninner-core dry air and still become a hurricane. By 36-48 h,\r\nhowever, Frank will be moving over sub-26 deg C water, which should\r\nstart a slow but steady weakening trend, with the cyclone\r\ndegenerating into a remnant low by day 4. The new NHC intensity\r\nforecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and\r\nclosely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 20.0N 113.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 20.2N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 20.4N 114.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 20.7N 116.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 21.1N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 22.3N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 23.0N 123.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Frank has diminished considerably\r\nsince Sunday.  Since the vertical shear over the storm is weak, the\r\nlikely cause for this decrease is the upwelling of cooler ocean\r\nwaters beneath the slow-moving cyclone.  The current intensity\r\nestimate is reduced to 55 kt in accordance with a Dvorak estimate\r\nfrom SAB, and this may be generous.  Since the storm is expected to\r\nbegin moving west-northwestward at a faster forward speed soon, it\r\nshould temporarily pass over a warmer ocean.  Thus some slight\r\nrestrengthening is forecast within the next 24 hours.  After that,\r\ndecreasing SSTs should induce gradual weakening.  Frank is likely\r\nto be reduced to a remnant low pressure system in 4 days or so, and\r\nthis could occur sooner than that.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis a blend of the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nFrank had been quasi-stationary over the past several hours,\r\nalthough recent images suggest a slightly north-of-west drift\r\nat about 280/3 kt.  The mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nthe tropical cyclone collapsed, causing a very weak steering\r\ncurrent.  However, the global models predict that the ridge to the\r\nnorth of Frank will rebuild over the next several days and this\r\nshould produce a west-northwestward motion with some acceleration.\r\nLate in the forecast period, the shallow remnant low is likely to\r\nmove mostly westward in the low-level flow.  The official forecast\r\nis a little faster than the previous one and close to the model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 20.1N 113.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 20.3N 114.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 20.6N 115.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 21.0N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 21.6N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 23.1N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 24.0N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0600Z 24.5N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n900 AM MDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection is bursting near the center of Frank, with its\r\nasymmetric pattern on infrared images suggesting that shear\r\ncontinues to play a significant role in the storm's structure.\r\nIntensity estimates have a rather wide spread this morning, from 35\r\nto 60 kt. Since the storm overall looks a little better than\r\novernight, the initial 55-kt wind speed is kept the same from\r\nearlier, although it could still be generous.  Frank has about 24\r\nhours left before it crosses the 26 deg C isotherm, which will\r\nlikely cause gradual weakening thereafter.  The storm still has a\r\nchance of intensify during the first 24 h, but the official forecast\r\nreflects no significant change in intensity, partially due to\r\nuncertainty in the initial wind speed.  Frank is likely to become a\r\nremnant low in about 3 days due to it moving over cool 23 deg C\r\nwaters.  The latest forecast is a bit lower than the previous one\r\nand remains close to a SHIPS/LGEM consensus.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data show that Frank has started to move slowly westward,\r\nwith an initial motion estimate of 280/5.  All of the global models\r\npredict the subtropical ridge to strengthen over the next couple of\r\ndays, which should steer the storm west-northwestward with some\r\nacceleration.  Late in the forecast period, the shallow remnant low\r\nis likely to move mostly westward in the low-level flow.  The model\r\nspread has notably decreased since yesterday, with only some minor\r\nspeed differences.  Thus, no significant changes were made to the\r\nprevious track forecast, which lies close to the dynamical model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 20.4N 113.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 20.5N 114.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 20.9N 116.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 21.5N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 22.3N 119.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 23.8N 123.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 24.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z 24.7N 128.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n300 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nFrank has been a challenge to analyze today, with lots of\r\nconflicting data.  On the one hand, earlier microwave data showed a\r\nmid-level eye feature, causing the CIMSS-ADT value to shoot up to\r\nhurricane strength.  On the other hand, the overall appearance of\r\nFrank has deteriorated since yesterday in both the organization and\r\nstrength of its associated convection.  A partial ASCAT pass also\r\nindicated winds of only about 35 kt, although it missed the full\r\neastern semicircle.  The ADT value looks much too high, and the\r\ninitial wind speed is set to 45 kt, between the 35 kt estimate from\r\nSAB and the 55 kt one from TAFB.\r\n\r\nLittle change is expected with Frank for the next day or so until\r\nit crosses the 26 deg C isotherm, which will likely cause gradual\r\nweakening thereafter.  Remnant low status is expected in 2 to 3\r\ndays when the storm moves over cool water.  Intensity guidance has\r\ndropped since this morning, and the latest NHC prediction reflects\r\nthis trend, on the low side of the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 280/5.  The subtropical ridge\r\nshould strengthen over the next couple of days, which should steer\r\nthe storm west-northwestward with some increase in forward speed.\r\nThe only significant disagreement in the model guidance, similar to\r\nyesterday, is late in the forecast period regarding the handling of\r\nthe shallow remnant low.   The model consensus has done a very good\r\njob of smoothing through these differences with the low, and the\r\nofficial forecast is close to that aid and the previous forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 20.6N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 20.9N 115.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 21.3N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 21.9N 118.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 22.7N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 23.8N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe areal coverage of the deep convection has been gradually\r\nshrinking and only a small area of strong thunderstorms remains to\r\nthe northeast of the center.  Recent SSMIS data reveals that the\r\nlow-level structure is becoming less organized, but the mid-level\r\ncirculation is still quite distinct.  The cyclone has a vigorous\r\ncirculation, and based on continuity as well as the latest\r\nDvorak estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 45 kt.\r\n\r\nThe shear does not appear to be a problem for Frank, but a stable\r\nenvironment and cooler waters along its path will likely result in\r\nweakening. This will likely occur beyond 24 hours when the entire\r\ncirculation reaches cooler waters. The NHC forecast follows the\r\nguidance trend, primarily the SHIPS model, and calls for Frank to\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low in about 3 days.\r\n\r\nInitial motion is 285/06. Global models forecast that the ridge to\r\nthe north of Frank will remain steady for the next few days. This\r\npattern will continue to steer the cyclone on a general west-\r\nnorthwest track with a slight increase in forward speed until\r\ndissipation. There is basically no spread in the guidance from 12\r\nthrough 72 hours, increasing significantly the confidence in\r\nthe track forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 20.8N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 21.1N 116.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 21.6N 117.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 22.3N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 23.0N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 24.0N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nAfter a decrease in thunderstorm activity yesterday, deep\r\nconvection associated with Frank has recently increased in a\r\nCDO-type pattern.  The intensity of the storm is adjusted upward\r\nslightly to 50 kt which is a blend of Dvorak T- and Current\r\nIntensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Little change in strength is\r\nexpected in the short term since Frank will be over marginally warm\r\nSSTs and in a weak shear environment today.  Within 12 to 24 hours,\r\nhowever, a weakening trend is likely to commence and the cyclone\r\nshould become a tropical depression within a couple of days or\r\nsooner.  The official intensity forecast is a little below the\r\nlatest model consensus.\r\n\r\nFrank continues slowly west-northwestward or at about 285/6 kt.\r\nThe track forecast seems straightforward.  A mid-level subtropical\r\nridge to the north of the cyclone is predicted by the global models\r\nto build slightly over the next few days.  This should result in\r\nlittle change in heading but with some increase in forward speed\r\nduring the next 2-3 days.  The official track forecast is close to\r\nthe latest dynamical model consensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 21.1N 115.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 21.4N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 22.1N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 22.8N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 23.4N 122.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 24.3N 124.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nAfter struggling during the last few days, Frank has become much\r\nbetter organized overnight, with deeper and more symmetric\r\nconvection.  A SSM/IS pass from a couple of hours ago also indicated\r\nthe development of a vertically aligned eye feature. The 12z\r\nsatellite intensity estimates were 65 kt and 55 kt from TAFB and\r\nSAB.  Since that time, the appearance of the cyclone has improved in\r\nsatellite imagery with the formation of a visible eye, so the\r\ninitial wind speed is set to 65 kt.\r\n\r\nFrank has less than 24 hours before it moves over SSTs cooler than\r\n26C.  Although it is not explicitly forecast, the hurricane could\r\nbecome strengthen a little more sometime before weakening begins on\r\nWednesday due to much cooler waters.  Frank should lose all of its\r\nconvection and transition to a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days\r\nwhen it encounters cold waters of 22-23C. The NHC forecast is raised\r\nfrom the previous one, primarily due to the initial conditions, then\r\nis blended with the previous forecast and the intensity consensus\r\nIVCN.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has finally started to move, estimated at 290/8 kt.\r\nThis general track is predicted for the next couple of days while\r\nFrank is steered by a restrengthened subtropical ridge.  After 48\r\nhours, Frank is expected to turn more westward when it becomes a\r\nshallow remnant low.  Little change is made to the previous NHC\r\nforecast, except for a small westward shift at long range near the\r\ndynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFrank is the 5th hurricane to form in the eastern Pacific during\r\nJuly.  This is the most on record for July, eclipsing the previous\r\nrecord of 4 previously set in 5 other years.  Reliable records in\r\nthe eastern Pacific for hurricanes begin in 1971.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 21.2N 116.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 21.6N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 22.4N 119.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 23.1N 121.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 23.8N 123.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 24.4N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nFrank has intensified a little more during the day, with a ragged\r\neye occasionally showing itself within the central dense overcast.\r\nDvorak estimates range from 65 to 75 kt, so the initial wind speed\r\nis increased to 70 kt on the advisory.  Frank should be near its\r\npeak intensity since it is already moving over sub-26C waters with\r\nvertical shear likely to increase overnight.  Steady weakening\r\nshould commence by late Wednesday, and Frank is forecast to\r\ntransition into a post-tropical cyclone on Thursday when it\r\ntraverses cold waters of 22-23C.  The official forecast is close to\r\nthe previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nFrank continues to pick up some speed, now moving 285/9.  A\r\nsubtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer Frank\r\ngenerally west-northwestward for the next couple of days.  A\r\nwestward turn is likely after that time due to Frank becoming a\r\nmore shallow cyclone. While the individual models are bouncing\r\naround in latitude at the end of the forecast period, the dynamical\r\nmodel consensus has remained rock solid since the last advisory.\r\nThus, no change is made to the previous NHC track forecast, which\r\nis near or just south of the model consensus throughout the period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 21.5N 117.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 22.0N 119.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 22.9N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 23.8N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 24.4N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 24.5N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nFrank surprised us tonight with another round of strengthening. The\r\ncloud pattern presentation on satellite is the best so far with a\r\ndistinct eye surrounded by moderate convection. Objective and\r\nsubjective T-numbers from all agencies are 4.5 on the Dvorak\r\nscale.  On this basis, the initial intensity has been adjusted to 75\r\nkt. Most of the circulation of the small cyclone is already moving\r\nover sea surface temperatures below 26C, so one would expect that a\r\ngradual weakening should begin soon. By 48 hours, Frank should have\r\ndegenerated into a post-tropical cyclone over increasingly cooler\r\nwaters. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one, but\r\nadjusted upward at 12 h due to the initial intensity increase.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Frank is moving toward the west-\r\nnorthwest or 290 degrees at 10 kt around the periphery of the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  Dynamical models and their derived consensus are\r\nin excellent agreement showing the cyclone moving on the same track\r\nfor the next 2 days with some decrease in forward speed. The NHC\r\nforecast is then in the middle of the tight guidance envelope. Once\r\nFrank becomes a shallow system, it will probably turn westward while\r\nit becomes steered by the low-level trade winds.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 22.0N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 22.6N 120.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 23.6N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 24.4N 123.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 24.8N 124.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 25.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Frank","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye of Frank disappeared from geostationary imagery around 0600\r\nUTC, indicative of the beginning of a weakening trend.  Central\r\nconvection has been gradually diminishing, and Dvorak T-numbers\r\nare decreasing.  The current intensity is set at 70 kt which is a\r\nblend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Frank is starting to\r\ntraverse a gradient of SSTs, so steady weakening is expected as the\r\ncyclone moves over progressively cooler waters.  The official\r\nintensity forecast is close to the latest model consensus, IVCN,\r\nand calls for the system to degenerate into a post-tropical remnant\r\nlow in about 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion continues west-northwestward, or 295/10 kt.\r\nA mid-level subtropical ridge is forecast by the global models to\r\nremain to the north of Frank for the next few days, with some\r\nweakening of this ridge.  Therefore, a continued west-northwestward\r\nmotion with some deceleration is forecast for the next couple of\r\ndays.  After that, the weak and shallow cyclone is expected to move\r\ngenerally westward following the low level environmental winds.\r\nThe official track forecast follows the dynamical consensus aid,\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nData from an ASCAT overpass indicated that Frank was smaller than\r\npreviously estimated, and the wind radii have been adjusted\r\naccordingly.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 22.5N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 23.3N 121.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 24.3N 122.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 25.0N 124.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 25.3N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 25.3N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016\r\n\r\nFrank is quickly weakening today, with a shrinking area of deep\r\nconvection near and northwest of the center.  A blend of the\r\nTAFB/SAB Dvorak T/CI numbers gives an initial wind speed of 55 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  Steady weakening is expected due to the cyclone\r\nmoving over progressively colder waters and into a more stable\r\nairmass. The official intensity forecast remains near the latest\r\nmodel consensus, IVCN, and Frank should degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow by tomorrow afternoon.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data indicate the storm continues moving 295/10 kt. Frank\r\nshould turn westward and slow down as the cyclone becomes a weak and\r\nshallow remnant low steered by the low-level ridge.  Models have\r\nshifted a little southward on this cycle, and the official forecast\r\nfollows that trend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 22.7N 120.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 23.4N 122.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 24.2N 123.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 24.8N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 25.0N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 24.8N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-07-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016\r\n\r\nFrank has continued its weakening trend with only a small area of\r\nconvection now displaced to the northwest of the low-level center.\r\nAlthough subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates\r\nsupport an intensity of about 60 kt, the initial intensity has been\r\nlowered to 50 kt based on a partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass\r\nthat showed winds of only about 40 kt in the eastern semicircle.\r\nEven though the western half of the cyclone was not sampled, it is\r\nassumed that some stronger winds exist in that part of the\r\ncirculation, but not as strong as the satellite estimates due to the\r\ncooler waters creating a more stable boundary layer.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 295/09 kt. Frank should move\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 24 hours or so before turning\r\nwestward by 36 hours after the cyclone degenerates into a shallow\r\nremnant low, which will be steered by the low-level easterly trade\r\nwind flow. The new NHC model guidance is in good agreement on this\r\ntrack scenario, although there is significant cross-track spread in\r\nthe models after 48 hours. The official forecast track is similar\r\nto the previous advisory track and lies a little south of the\r\nconsensus track model TVCN.\r\n\r\nMicrowave imagery indicates that Frank's circulation has a\r\nnorthwestward tilt due to some southeasterly mid-level wind shear.\r\nThe cyclone is also moving over sub-24C SSTs at this time, and\r\ncooler waters lie ahead of Frank. The combination of increasing\r\nshear, decreasing water temperatures, and a drier and more stable\r\nairmass should result in rapid weakening during the next 24 hours.\r\nTherefore, Frank is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on\r\nThursday and dissipate on Saturday. The official intensity forecast\r\nfollows the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 23.1N 121.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 23.8N 122.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 24.5N 124.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 24.9N 125.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 24.9N 126.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 24.4N 128.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-07-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 27 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern is gradually deteriorating, and microwave data\r\nshow that the low-level center is becoming even more separated from\r\nthe residual thunderstorm activity. However, the circulation is\r\nstill vigorous, and subjective satellite intensity estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB and objective numbers from CIMSS support an initial\r\nintensity of 45 kt.\r\n\r\nGiven that Frank's entire circulation is moving over waters with\r\ntemperatures of less than 24C, the thunderstorm activity should\r\ndiminish resulting in gradual weakening.  Frank is anticipated to\r\nbecome a remnant low by Thursday.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7\r\nkt, steered by the deep-layer flow around the subtropical high.\r\nThis motion will likely continue for a day until Frank becomes a\r\nshallow system and moves westward within t\r\nhe trade winds. There is\r\ngood agreement in the track models, and the NHC forecast is in the\r\nmiddle the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 23.4N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 23.9N 123.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 24.3N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 24.4N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 24.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Frank","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-07-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016\r\n\r\nAll of the deep convection associated with Frank has dissipated,\r\nand since the cyclone is moving over waters cooler than 23 deg C,\r\nregeneration of thunderstorms within the circulation is not\r\nanticipated. Therefore, the cyclone is likely to degenerate into a\r\npost-tropical remnant low pressure area later today.  A partial\r\nASCAT pass suggested that the maximum winds were near 35 kt and\r\nthese tropical-storm-force winds were likely contained to the\r\nnortheast quadrant of Frank.  A continued spin down of the\r\ncirculation should occur over the next few days with the system\r\ndissipating in 72 hours or so.\r\n\r\nThe center is difficult to locate but the best guess of initial\r\nmotion is about 290/8 kt.  Frank, or its remnant, is forecast to\r\nturn toward the west and then west-southwest and decelerate,\r\nfollowing the relatively weak low-level tradewind flow.  The\r\nofficial forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 23.6N 123.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 24.0N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 24.2N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 24.3N 126.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 24.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Frank","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-07-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 28 2016\r\n\r\nFrank has only been devoid of organized deep convection since about\r\n0400 UTC, so the system is still being maintained as a tropical\r\ncyclone for this advisory.  However, if this downward convective\r\ntrend continues, which appears likely since Frank is now moving\r\nover sub-23 deg C sea-surface temperatures, then the cyclone will\r\nbecome a remnant low pressure system this afternoon in the next\r\nadvisory package. Continued spin down should result in dissipation\r\nof the low-level circulation by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite fixes indicate that Frank is now moving at\r\n290/07 kt.  The weakening cyclone is forecast to become more\r\nvertically shallow over the next 48 hours, which should result in a\r\nturn toward the west and then west-southwest, accompanied by gradual\r\ndeceleration due to weak easterly tradewind flow. The official\r\nforecast is similar to the previous track and lies close to the TVCN\r\nconsensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 23.7N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 24.0N 125.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 24.1N 126.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 23.7N 127.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Frank","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-07-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP072016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 28 2016\r\n\r\nFrank has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and\r\nis now just a large swirl of low-level stratocumulus clouds. Since\r\nthe cyclone continues to move into an environment of very dry\r\nmid-level air and near 22 deg C SSTs, redevelopment of organized\r\ndeep convection is unlikely.  On this basis, Frank has been\r\ndeclared a remnant low.  The initial wind speed of 30 kt is based on\r\nan average of subjective T/CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. Given the\r\nvery stable conditions ahead of the cyclone, the remnant low should\r\ncontinue to spin down and dissipate by 72 h.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/06 kt. The vertically shallow\r\nremnant low should move westward through 24 h, and then toward the\r\nwest-southwest by weak easterly to northeasterly low-level tradewind\r\nflow. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory\r\ntrack and lies close to the TVCN consensus track\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on\r\nthis system.  Additional information on the remnant low can be found\r\nin High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 24.1N 124.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 24.2N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 24.1N 126.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 23.9N 127.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 23.6N 127.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n300 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nAn ASCAT-B pass at 1742Z showed that the area of low pressure\r\nlocated well southwest of Mexico now has a well-defined center, and\r\nthe geostationary imagery shows a curved convective band wrapping\r\nnearly halfway around the system.  Given this, the low is now\r\nclassified as a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set to\r\n30 kt based on the ASCAT data, which is also in agreement with the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimate from SAB.  The depression will be moving over\r\nSSTs of 28C or higher for the next couple of days, but will also be\r\nin a moderate easterly to northeasterly shear environment during\r\nthat time.  Given these conditions, gradual intensification is\r\nforecast in the short term.  The cyclone is forecast to peak in\r\nabout 72 hours before it moves over cooler waters and into a more\r\nstable environment, which should result in slow weakening.  The NHC\r\nintensity prediction is close to the intensity consensus through the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/10 given the\r\nrecent formation of the system.  The dominant steering mechanism for\r\nthe first 2-3 days of the forecast period will be a large\r\nsubtropical ridge that will migrate westward from central North\r\nAmerica over the eastern Pacific.  This should keep the cyclone\r\nmoving generally west-northwestward for the first 48 hours or so.\r\nAfter that time, there is an increase in the spread of the guidance.\r\nThe ECMWF and HWRF show the cyclone turning more poleward into a\r\nweakness in the ridge caused by an upper-level low, with the ECMWF\r\nshowing some northward motion possibly due to the influence of\r\nTropical Storm Fred to the the northeast.  The GFS, GEFS mean, and\r\nCOAMPS-TC show a more westward track with the cyclone staying south\r\nof the ridge.  For now the NHC track forecast is down the middle of\r\nthe guidance envelope and is very close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus.  Given the large spread in the guidance, the track\r\nforecast uncertainty is higher than usual late in the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 10.8N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 11.4N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 12.3N 117.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 13.0N 119.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 13.6N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 15.0N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  26/1800Z 18.0N 130.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery and a 2309 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass\r\nshowed that the depression's center of circulation was located near\r\nthe northeastern edge of the cloud mass, indicative that some\r\nnortheasterly shear is impinging on the cloud pattern.  The Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates have not changed during the past 6\r\nhours, and the initial intensity remains at 30 kt.  Light to\r\nmoderate northeasterly shear is expected to continue for the next\r\ncouple of days as the depression traverses warm water.  Gradual\r\nstrengthening seems reasonable and this forecast trend is supported\r\nby most of the statistical-dynamical guidance.  Beyond day 3,\r\nhowever, the depression is expected to encounter decreasing SSTs of\r\nbelow 25C, and move into a more stable thermodynamic environment\r\nwhich should influence slow weakening through the remainder of the\r\nperiod.  The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous one, and\r\nis based primarily on the IVCN multi-model guidance.\r\n\r\nConventional satellite position fixes and a couple of microwave\r\noverpasses yield an initial motion estimate of 295/11 kt, south of\r\na strong subtropical ridge along 29N originating from Texas/northern\r\nMexico.  This ridge is expected to steer the cyclone generally\r\nwest-northwestward through the 96 hour period.  Afterward, the\r\nglobal and regional model guidance still shows increasing spread\r\nwith time.  The ECMWF is basically the outlier this evening, showing\r\na much more north-northwestward turn into a break in the ridge\r\ncreated by a combination of a digging upper-level low, and Tropical\r\nStorm Frank to the northeast of the depression.  All the other\r\nguidance agree more with a gradual turn toward the northwest through\r\nday 5.  The official forecast splits these two solutions, but is\r\nhedged a bit toward the model cluster reflecting a less poleward\r\nturn.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 11.6N 115.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 12.3N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 13.1N 118.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 13.8N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 14.4N 122.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 16.0N 125.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 17.4N 127.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/0000Z 18.3N 129.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nASCAT-B scatterometer data from 0448 UTC indicate that the\r\ndepression's winds have not strengthened yet, and the initial\r\nintensity remains 30 kt.  Some banding is trying to form, but most\r\nof the convection is displaced to the west of the center due to 15\r\nkt of east-northeasterly shear.  Although sea surface temperatures\r\nnear the cyclone are very warm--around 29C--the shear is likely to\r\ncontinue for at least the next 24-36 hours.  The shear should then\r\ndecrease after 36 hours with SSTs remaining warm through day 3,\r\ngiving the cyclone an opportunity to strengthen to hurricane\r\nintensity in a couple of days.  After day 3, a cooler ocean and a\r\ndrier air mass should lead to gradual weakening.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the SHIPS guidance through 24 hours,\r\nshowing a slightly slower intensification trend in the short term\r\ncompared to the previous forecast.  The official forecast is a\r\nlittle higher than SHIPS between 36 and 72 hours and then is closest\r\nto the LGEM model on days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nThe depression remains on track with an initial motion of 295/11\r\nkt.  Strong mid-level ridging extending from the south-central\r\nUnited States southwestward over the Pacific Ocean is expected to\r\nmaintain the cyclone on a west-northwestward heading for the next\r\n48 hours.  The ridge is expected to shift westward between\r\nCalifornia and Hawaii on days 3 through 5, impeding the cyclone's\r\nforward motion and causing it to turn northwestward and slow down\r\nconsiderably.  There's not much spread among the track guidance,\r\nand the updated NHC track forecast has been placed very near the\r\nTVCE model consensus.  This forecast is a little slower than the\r\nprevious forecast at 36 hours and beyond.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 11.8N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 12.4N 117.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 13.1N 119.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 13.7N 121.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 14.2N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 15.8N 125.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 17.0N 127.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  27/0600Z 18.0N 128.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of the cyclone has improved during the\r\npast few hours, with an increase in deep convection in a developing\r\nCDO and a large but fractured convective band in the western\r\nsemicircle.  The initial intensity is set to 40 kt based on\r\na blend of the latest Dvorak estimates of 45 kt from TAFB and 35 kt\r\nfrom SAB.  A 0931Z GPM pass showed that some inner-core structure\r\nhas developed, but moderate easterly shear is forecast to persist\r\nfor the next couple of days.  This envirionment should allow for\r\nsteady strengthening while the storm moves over SSTs above 28C.\r\nSSTs cool below 26C after 72 hours, which suggests slow weakening\r\nlate in the period.  The new NHC intensity forecast has been\r\nadjusted upward given the initial intensity but keeps the same peak\r\nintensity.  This forecast is above the intensity consensus and near\r\nthe latest SHIPS and LGEM predictions through 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/11 and Georgette should be\r\nsteered west-northwestward by the east Pacific subtropical ridge for\r\nthe next 2 to 3 days.  Later in the forecast period the ridge shifts\r\nwestward, which should cause a decrease in forward speed and a bend\r\nin the track toward the northwest.  The track model guidance is in\r\ngenerally good agreement on this scenario.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is along the previous one but is a little faster, and is\r\nclose to the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe formation of Georgette as the seventh named storm in the basin\r\nthis month ties the July record for the most named storm formations,\r\nwhich was set in 1985.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 12.3N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 12.9N 118.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 13.5N 120.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 14.0N 122.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 14.7N 123.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z 18.5N 129.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-07-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette has continued to strengthen today.  A small central dense\r\novercast is present in geostationary imagery with a well-defined\r\nlow-level eye seen in a 1415Z WindSat pass.  A hint of an eye was\r\nalso noted in earlier visible imagery.  The initial intensity is set\r\nat 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5/55 kt and\r\nthe UW-CIMSS ADT of T3.4/53 kt at 18Z.  It appears that the shear\r\nhas relaxed at least somewhat over the cyclone today, and the SSTs\r\nof over 28C should be conducive for at least steady intensification\r\nin the next 36 to 48 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast has\r\nagain been adjusted upward and is above the intensity consensus and\r\nclose to the LGEM model.  Note that the HWRF shows more rapid\r\nintensification in the short range, which is possible.  Later in the\r\nforecast period the SSTs gradually cool, which should result in\r\nsteady weakening at days 3 through 5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now a little faster toward the west-northwest\r\nat 295/13.  Georgette should continue on this heading for the next\r\n48 hours while being steered by a subtropical ridge centered to the\r\nnortheast.  After that time an upper-level low will undercut the\r\nridge northwest of the tropical cyclone, which should result in a\r\nslower motion toward the northwest at days 3 and 4, followed by a\r\nturn back toward the west-northwest at day 5 as the ridge rebuilds.\r\nThe new NHC track forecast is along the previous one but is again\r\nfaster during the first 72 hours following the guidance trend.  Late\r\nin the period the new NHC track is a little to the left of the\r\nprevious one and is close to the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 12.8N 118.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 13.4N 119.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 14.0N 121.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 14.6N 123.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 15.5N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 17.0N 127.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z 19.0N 131.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-07-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nThis evening's satellite presentation has revealed some\r\ndeterioration of the cloud pattern.  Georgette's earlier impressive,\r\nbanding-eye feature is no longer present, and recent microwave\r\nimages indicate a more sheared, tilted structure.  Apparently,\r\nmodest northeasterly shear has once again returned and has partially\r\nexposed the center of circulation to the east of the strongest\r\nconvection.  The initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this\r\nadvisory and is based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T3.5 from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  The large-scale guidance and the SHIPS model all\r\nshow the shear lingering for the next 24 hours or so.  Subsequently,\r\nonly modest strengthening is reflected, but all the\r\nstatistical-dynamical guidance show Georgette still becoming a\r\nhurricane in 12 hours.  The intensity models indicate further\r\nstrengthening through mid-period, then agree on a gradual weakening\r\ntrend through day 5.  The official forecast follows this scenario\r\nand is based on the combination of the IVCN multi-model consensus\r\nand the stronger HWRF hurricane model.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwest at 290/11.  A\r\nmid- to upper-level ridge extending westward over the eastern\r\nPacific from the southwestern United States should continue to\r\nsteer Georgette in this general direction for the next 36 hours.\r\nAfterward, a retrograding upper-tropospheric trough, embedded in the\r\ndeep-layer easterly flow south of the ridge axis, is expected to\r\ntemporarily disrupt the steering flow just enough to cause Georgette\r\nto decrease in speed and turn toward the northwest.  Late in the\r\nperiod, the ridge should reestablish north of the cyclone and turn\r\nGeorgette back toward the west-northwest.  The NHC forecast is\r\nquite similar to the last one, and closely follows the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 13.2N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 13.7N 120.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 14.3N 122.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 15.0N 124.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 16.0N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 17.5N 127.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 18.4N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 19.4N 131.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-07-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette's convective canopy has expanded and become a little more\r\nsymmetric over the past few hours.  An 0515 UTC AMSU pass revealed a\r\nmid-level microwave eye, but this feature appeared to be displaced\r\nto the west of the low-level center by more than half a degree of\r\nlongitude.  Based on Dvorak estimates of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB,\r\nthe initial intensity remains 55 kt.\r\n\r\nSHIPS guidance indicates that a little more than 15 kt of easterly\r\nshear is still affecting Georgette.  However, the shear is expected\r\nto gradually diminish, falling below 10 kt in 18-24 hours, and sea\r\nsurface temperatures should remain higher than 26C for about the\r\nnext 48 hours.  Therefore, slow strengthening is anticipated at\r\nfirst, with a faster intensification rate likely once the shear\r\nhas abated.  Since little to no shear is expected in 36-48 hours,\r\nthe NHC intensity forecast is at the top end of the guidance\r\nspectrum, closest to the HWRF model.  After 48 hours, steady\r\nweakening is anticipated due to cooler SSTs, increasing shear, and\r\na drier atmosphere.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has been tough to locate tonight, so an\r\ninitial motion of 290/11 kt is maintained for continuity's sake.\r\nThe strong mid-level ridge to the north of Georgette is expected to\r\nweaken and shift to a position between California and Hawaii during\r\nthe next few days.  Georgette should therefore turn northwestward\r\nand slow down after 36 hours.  There is very little spread among\r\nthe track guidance during the entire forecast period, and the\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is nudged a little north and east of the\r\nprevious forecast in deference to the GFS and ECMWF models, which\r\nlie on the right-hand side of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 13.5N 120.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 14.0N 121.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 14.8N 123.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 15.8N 125.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 18.0N 128.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 19.0N 130.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 20.0N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-07-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette's cloud pattern has transitioned to a CDO with a curved\r\nband in the western semicircle during the past few hours.  A 0908Z\r\nAMSR2 pass from GCOM-W1 showed a mid-level eye feature, but this was\r\ndisplaced southwest of the low-level center due to about 10 kt of\r\nnortheasterly shear.  The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on\r\nthe latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  There is still an\r\nopportunity for Georgette to strengthen, as the shear is expected to\r\ndecrease below 10 kt by 12 hours while the cyclone will remain over\r\nSSTs above 26C until about 48 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast\r\nremains near the high end of the guidance in the first couple of\r\ndays and is close to the HWRF model.  After 48 hours, weakening is\r\nexpected due to a combination of cooling SSTs, increasing shear and\r\na drier more stable atmosphere.  During this time, the new NHC\r\nforecast is lower, trending toward the latest LGEM output.\r\n\r\nWith the help of the above-mentioned AMSR pass, the initial motion\r\nis estimated to be 290/11.  There is no change to the track forecast\r\nreasoning, as Georgette will be steered by a strong mid-level ridge\r\nto the north that will weaken and shift westward during the next\r\nseveral days.  This should result in a continued west-northwestward\r\nmotion for the next 36 hours, followed by a northwestward motion at\r\n48 and 72 hours with a decrease in forward speed.  A turn back\r\ntoward the west-northwest is expected at days 4 and 5 as the ridge\r\nrebuilds to the north.  The track model guidance is in generally\r\ngood agreement on this scenario, but there is some cross-track\r\nspread between the HWRF and COAMPS-TC on the left side of the\r\nguidance envelope and the ECMWF on the right side.  The new NHC\r\ntrack is largely an update of the previous one with with a slight\r\nsouthward adjustment toward the latest multi-model consensus.  This\r\nforecast is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 13.9N 121.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 14.4N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 15.3N 124.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 16.2N 126.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 17.1N 127.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 18.2N 128.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 19.0N 130.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 20.0N 133.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-07-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nIt appears that the shear is decreasing over Georgette, with the\r\noutflow improving and the mid- and low-level centers coming into\r\nbetter alignment.  Visible imagery suggests a ragged eye trying to\r\ndevelop, with a small mid-level eye noted in a 1539Z SSMIS overpass.\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 60 kt based on a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak estimates of T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.\r\nThis is also close to the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 61 kt.\r\nThe initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted based on data from a\r\n1444Z pass of the RapidScat scatterometer on board the\r\nInternational Space Station.\r\n\r\nGeorgette has 24-36 hours left before moving over SSTs below 26C,\r\nand with the shear less than 10 kt some further intensification\r\nseems likely.  By 48 hours and beyond, weakening is forecast due to\r\ncooler SSTs, some increase in shear, and a drier more stable\r\natmospheric environment.  The new NHC intensity forecast is similar\r\nto the last one and is near the high end of the guidance through 36\r\nhours, but still below the HWRF.  During the weakening phase the\r\nofficial forecast is near or a little below IVCN and shows\r\nGeorgette becoming post-tropical by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a little more westward (285/10), perhaps due\r\nto the low- and mid-level centers coming closer together.  Georgette\r\nwill be steered in the next 36 to 48 hours by a strong mid-level\r\nridge to the north.  In 2 to 3 days an upper-level low slides north\r\nof Georgette underneath the ridge, and the model guidance this\r\ncycle shows a sharper poleward turn at days 3 and 4 as Georgette\r\nfeels more of a steering influence from this feature.  A turn back\r\ntoward the west-northwest is expected by day 5 as Georgette weakens\r\nand is steered by the low-level trade winds.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is a little south of the previous one through 48 hours due\r\nto the initial position and motion and is close to the consensus.\r\nLater in the period the track has been shifted northward, but lies\r\non the left side of the guidance envelope near the GFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 122.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 123.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 15.4N 125.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 16.4N 126.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 17.3N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 18.6N 129.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 19.9N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 21.3N 135.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-07-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 23 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette's convective structure improved this evening, as a band\r\nof showers and thunderstorms wrapped more than 360 degrees around\r\nthe center.  The intensity estimates spanned a wide range:  55 kt\r\nfrom SAB Dvorak, 58 kt from CIMSS AMSU, 65 kt from TAFB Dvorak, and\r\n75 kt from CIMSS ADT.  A blend of these gives 65 kt, making\r\nGeorgette a hurricane.  A 2227Z CIRA AMSU size analysis indicated\r\nthat the tropical cyclone remained small with tropical-storm-force\r\nwinds extending out only to 60 nm in the northern semicircle.\r\n\r\nContinued steady intensification is expected, but only for another\r\nday or so while Georgette traverses over warm SSTs, through moist\r\nunstable air, and experiences low tropospheric vertical shear.\r\nStarting on Monday, it is anticipated that the thermodynamics will\r\nno longer be conducive and gradual to steady weakening should\r\noccur.  Around day four, the combination of cold SSTs and a dry\r\nstable atmosphere may lead to the system losing its deep convection\r\nand becoming a post-tropical cyclone.  The NHC intensity forecast\r\nshows a slightly higher peak intensity in a day, then indicates a\r\nquicker demise.  This forecast is based on a blend of the HWRF\r\ndynamical hurricane model and the LGEM statistical technique.\r\n\r\nGeorgette is moving toward the west at about 8 kt, in the mid-level\r\neasterlies associated with the subtropical ridge to its north. An\r\nupper-level low swings around to the western periphery of Georgette\r\nand helps to induce a more northerly component of motion to the\r\nhurricane between 36 and 72 h.  By day four, a decaying Georgette is\r\nsteered back toward the west-northwest in the low-level trade winds.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous\r\nadvisory and is based upon the TVCE multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nGeorgette is the fourth hurricane to form during the month of July\r\nin the eastern North Pacific basin.  This ties a record for the\r\nmonth of July, last equaled back in 1992.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.2N 123.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.8N 124.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 15.8N 126.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 16.9N 127.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 17.7N 128.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 19.0N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 20.5N 132.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  29/0000Z 21.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-07-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has become more concentrated in a small,\r\nquasi-circular CDO feature, and overall the tropical cyclone has a\r\nfairly symmetrical presentation on satellite images.  The initial\r\nintensity is increased to 70 kt based on a blend of subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak intensity estimates.  Georgette is forecast to\r\nremain in an environment of vertical shear below 10 kt for the next\r\n48 hours, but SSTs should cool to below 25 deg C over that time.\r\nTherefore, some additional intensification is forecast over the\r\nshort term, but a slow weakening trend should be underway in 24\r\nhours or so.  The official intensity forecast is a little above the\r\nlatest model consensus, IVCN, and near the high end of the guidance.\r\n\r\nBased on satellite center fixes, the initial motion estimate is\r\nabout the same as in the previous advisory, or 290/9 kt.  A\r\nmid-tropospheric anticyclone is currently centered to the north of\r\nthe hurricane.  This high is predicted to shift westward over the\r\nnext few days, leading to a slight weakness in the subtropical\r\nridge to the north of Georgette.  As a result, the tropical cyclone\r\nshould turn toward the northwest and decelerate.  Near the end of\r\nthe forecast period, Georgette will likely become a shallow cyclone\r\nand turn toward the left in the low-level flow.  The official track\r\nforecast is close to the dynamical model consensus and leans toward\r\nthe latest GFS solution.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 14.5N 123.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 15.2N 125.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 16.0N 126.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 16.9N 127.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 17.7N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 18.9N 129.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 20.8N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  29/0600Z 22.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-07-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nThe coverage of cold convective tops has increased over the past\r\nfew hours and a 0921Z GPM pass and 0935Z AMSR pass showed that the\r\ncenter of Georgette was near the middle of the CDO feature.  Based\r\non the improved convective organization, the initial intensity has\r\nbeen set to 75 kt, which is close to the latest Dvorak estimates\r\nfrom SAB and UW-CIMSS.  The hurricane has an opportunity to\r\nstrengthen a bit more in the short term before SSTs cool below 26C\r\nby 24 hours.  After that time, slow weakening should begin and\r\ncontinue through the rest of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is close to SHIPS model at 12 h and near the LGEM\r\nthereafter.  In about 4 days, Georgette should become a post-\r\ntropical cyclone over SSTs of 22-23C in a dry and stable\r\nenvironment.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/09 based on the latest\r\ngeostationary and microwave fixes.  A mid-level anticyclone centered\r\nnorth of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72 hours,\r\nwhich will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and\r\nslow down.  By the end of the period, the shallow post-tropical\r\nGeorgette should accelerate back toward the west-northwest in the\r\nlow-level trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is a little to the\r\nright of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN consensus\r\naid.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 15.1N 124.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 15.7N 125.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 16.6N 127.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 17.4N 127.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 18.1N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 19.9N 130.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 22.0N 133.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  29/1200Z 23.0N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-07-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette has continued to strengthen today, with a cloudy eye now\r\nseen in visible imagery surrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of\r\naround -70C.  The initial intensity is set to 90 kt based on the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates of T5.0 from TAFB and SAB.  Georgette still\r\nhas a chance to intensity further in the next 12 hours before SSTs\r\ncool below 26C along the track.  After that time, slow weakening\r\nshould begin, followed by a faster rate of decay by 36 hours as\r\nSSTs cool below 25C and the shear increases a bit.  Georgette is\r\nexpected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3-4 days.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is above all of the guidance through 24 hours\r\nand near or a little below the LGEM.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/09.  The mid-level anticyclone\r\ncentered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72\r\nhours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward\r\nand slow down.  Late in the period, a shallow post-tropical\r\nGeorgette should accelerate back toward the west in the low-level\r\ntrade wind flow.  The new NHC track is again adjusted a little to\r\nthe right of the previous one and is not far from the new TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii have been adjusted based on a pair of ASCAT passes\r\naround 1800 UTC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 15.7N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 16.4N 126.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 17.2N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 20.8N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  29/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-07-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette has been rapidly intensifying.  The eye of the hurricane\r\nhas become much more distinct in satellite images since the previous\r\nadvisory, and the deep convection is fairly symmetric around the\r\ncenter.  The latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at\r\nthe University of Wisconsin support raising the initial intensity to\r\n115 kt, making Georgette a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-\r\nSimpson Hurricane Wind Scale.  This is an impressive 50-kt intensity\r\nincrease in the past 24 hours. Even though Georgette is a major\r\nhurricane, scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that\r\nits wind field is fairly compact.\r\n\r\nGeorgette has been taking advantage of favorable environmental\r\nconditions of very low shear and sufficiently warm waters of about\r\n27 deg C during its rapid intensification phase. Although the shear\r\nis expected to remain light during the next few days, Georgette is\r\nforecast to track over progressively cooler SSTs and it should cross\r\nthe 26 deg C isotherm in about 12 hours.  Therefore, some additional\r\nstrengthening is possible overnight, but a steady weakening trend\r\nshould commence on Monday.  Georgette is forecast to become a\r\npost-tropical cyclone in 3 to 4 days when it is expected to be\r\nembedded in a dry air mass and located over SSTs of 22-23 deg C.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving northwestward at about 10 kt toward a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an upper-level low. This\r\ngeneral heading with a decrease in forward speed is expected during\r\nthe next couple of days.  After that time, a faster motion toward\r\nthe west-northwest and then west is forecast when the weakening\r\nsystem becomes steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is not too different from the previous one, and lies\r\nclose to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 16.3N 126.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 17.1N 126.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 17.8N 127.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 19.3N 129.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 21.3N 132.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 22.8N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z 23.5N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-07-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette is maintaining its organization. The cyclone exhibits an\r\nannular appearance, with a nearly symmetric CDO and essentially no\r\nbanding features.  A 0245 UTC SSMI/S hints at a possible eyewall\r\nreplacement, though it's not clear at what stage it has progressed.\r\nDvorak satellite classifications are a unanimous T6.0 at 0600 UTC,\r\nand on this basis, the intensity estimate is kept at 115 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/09.  A low- to mid-level ridge\r\nto the north and east of Georgette would tend to steer it westward\r\nor west-northwestward during the next few days.  However, an upper-\r\nlow ahead of it should continue to impart a more northwesterly\r\nmotion, though at a much reduced forward speed.  After 72 hours,\r\nGeorgette is forecast to become a much shallower cyclone, at which\r\ntime the track should bend toward the west and accelerate in the\r\nlow-level flow.  The new track forecast is not much different than\r\nthe previous one, except that it is slower beyond 72 hours and a\r\nlittle to the south, in agreement with the consensus track guidance.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast seems straightforward.  Georgette's movement\r\nover a colder sea surface and into increasingly drier and more\r\nstable air mass should soon result in weakening.  The caveat is that\r\nGeorgette's annular structure could allow it to maintain more\r\nstrength than forecast in the very short term.  By 48 hours,\r\nhowever, the thermodynamics in the storm's environment should\r\nbecome hostile, and a more rapid weakening is expected to commence.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat lower than the previous\r\none and is close to the multi-model consensus, except prior to 48\r\nhours when the storm's annular characteristics have been taken into\r\naccount.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 16.9N 126.8W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 17.6N 127.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 18.2N 128.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 18.8N 128.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 19.6N 130.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 21.4N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 22.3N 138.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0600Z 22.4N 143.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-07-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette's satellite presentation has begun to degrade.  The small\r\neye has become filled in infrared imagery and the coverage and\r\nsymmetry of cold tops in the CDO have decreased.  The initial\r\nintensity of 105 kt is based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T\r\nand CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Quick weakening is expected as\r\nthe cyclone will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and into a\r\ndrier and more stable airmass during the forecast period.  Georgette\r\nshould become a remnant low in about 3 days over SSTs of less than\r\n23C and the remnant low is expected to dissipate in 4 to 5 days.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast is lower than the previous one but\r\nis still a bit above the latest IVCN consensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/08.  Georgette is being pulled\r\nnorthwestward by an upper-level low centered to its northwest, and\r\nthis motion should continue for the next 48 hours or so.  After that\r\ntime, a shallow Georgette should accelerate westward in the low-\r\nlevel trade wind flow.  The new NHC track forecast is shifted a bit\r\nto the right of the previous one and is close to the latest TVCN\r\nconsensus aid.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 17.5N 127.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 18.0N 127.8W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 18.7N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 19.4N 129.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 20.3N 130.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 21.9N 134.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 22.5N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-07-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe eye is no longer seen in infrared imagery, but Georgette still\r\nhas a small CDO with tops colder than -70C.  The initial intensity\r\nis set to 95 kt based on a blend of the decreasing Dvorak Final-T\r\nand CI numbers from both TAFB and SAB.  Rapid weakening is\r\nexpected, with Georgette now moving over SSTs of around 25C and\r\nheading for even cooler waters.  The NHC forecast follows the\r\ndownward trend in the guidance this cycle and is close to the LGEM.\r\nGeorgette should become post-tropical by 3 days and dissipate by\r\nday 4, although I wouldn't be surprised if both of these occurred\r\nsooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 315/08, as Georgette continues\r\nto be steered northwestward by an upper-level low sliding by to the\r\nnorth.  The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Georgette\r\nshould continue northwestward until about 36 hours and then\r\ngradually accelerate westward in the low-level flow as a shallow\r\nsystem.  The new NHC track forecast is a little faster than the\r\nprevious one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 18.0N 127.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 18.4N 128.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 19.2N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 20.0N 129.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 20.9N 131.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 22.5N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 22.5N 141.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-07-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 25 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette has been on a steady weakening trend today.  Although the\r\neye of the hurricane is still apparent in visible images, it is\r\nmuch less distinct than it was earlier today.  In addition, the\r\nconvective pattern has become more ragged in appearance and is\r\nstretched from north to south.  The initial wind speed is lowered\r\nto 85 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Final T- and CI-numbers\r\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of\r\nWisconsin.  Georgette is a small cyclone, and based on earlier\r\nscatterometer data, the tropical-storm-force winds extend only 40 n\r\nmi from the center.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is over SSTs of about 25 deg C, and it is headed for\r\neven cooler waters during the next few days.  These unfavorable\r\noceanic conditions combined with a drier air mass and an increase\r\nin southeasterly shear should cause additional steady or even rapid\r\nweakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with the\r\nSHIPS guidance and now calls for Georgette to become a remnant low\r\nin 48 hours and dissipate by day 4.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Georgette has slowed down, as\r\npredicted, and the latest initial motion estimate is 310/6 kt.  A\r\ncontinued slow northwestward motion is expected during the next day\r\nor so while the system moves toward an upper-level low to its\r\nnorthwest.  After that time, the shallow cyclone is expected to\r\nturn toward the west-northwest and accelerate in the low-level\r\ntrade wind flow.  The NHC track forecast is a little slower than\r\nthe previous one to come in better agreement with the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 18.2N 128.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 18.6N 128.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 19.3N 129.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 20.3N 130.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 21.1N 132.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 22.4N 136.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Georgette","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-07-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette continues to weaken at a fast pace this morning.  Central\r\ndeep convection has been diminishing in areal coverage and\r\nintensity, and using a blend of Dvorak T- and Current\r\nIntensity-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity is set at\r\n70 kt.  Georgette will be moving over sub-25 deg C waters and\r\nthrough an environment of dry mid-level air, so continued weakening\r\nis expected.  The cyclone's intensity should drop to tropical\r\nstorm status today, and below storm strength within 48 hours or\r\nsooner.  The official intensity forecast is a little above the\r\nlatest numerical model consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe slow forward motion continues, and the initial motion estimate\r\nis northwestward or 315/4 kt.  Georgette is located to the south\r\nof a weakness in the subtropical ridge and this has likely\r\ncontributed to the slow northwestward motion.  The ridge is\r\npredicted to build somewhat, and as the weakening tropical cyclone\r\nresponds more to the lower-level flow, a gradual turn to the left\r\nwith some increase in forward speed is expected during the forecast\r\nperiod.  The official forecast is only slightly slower than the\r\nprevious one albeit along about the same trajectory.  This is close\r\nto the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 18.5N 128.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 18.8N 128.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 19.5N 129.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 20.5N 130.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 21.5N 132.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 22.0N 137.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-07-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette continues to quickly weaken, with the associated\r\nconvection decreasing significantly in both coverage and intensity\r\nsince the last advisory.  The initial intensity is reduced to 60 kt\r\nbased on a blend of Dvorak T- and Current Intensity-numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  However, the latest estimates from objective\r\ntechniques at\r\nCIMSS suggest this could be generous.  Georgette should continue to\r\nweaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface\r\ntemperatures of 23C-25C, and the intensity forecast calls for the\r\ntropical cyclone to decay to a remnant low by 48 hours.  The system\r\nis subsequently expected to dissipate by 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe motion remains slow at 305/3.  Water vapor imagery shows a mid-\r\nto upper-level trough is moving westward to the north and northwest\r\nof Georgette.  This feature has likely weakened the subtropical\r\nridge and contributed to the current slow motion.  The dynamical\r\nmodels forecast the ridge to build north of Georgette during the\r\nnext 72 hours, which should steer the cyclone or its remnants\r\nnorthwestward and then westward during the next 72-96 hours.  The\r\nnew forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just\r\nsouth of the various consensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 18.4N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 18.8N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 19.8N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 20.7N 131.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 21.5N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 22.0N 138.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-07-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Georgette continues to decrease\r\nwith only one small cluster of showers remaining to the west of\r\nthe center.  Recent objective and subjective satellite intensity\r\nestimates range from 45 kt to 65 kt.  Based on the lack of\r\nconvection and continuity from the previous advisory, the initial\r\nintensity is reduced to 50 kt.  Georgette should continue to\r\nweaken in an environment of dry mid-level air and sea surface\r\ntemperatures of 23C-25C.  The intensity forecast calls for the\r\ncyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 36 hours based on\r\nthe premise that some convection will re-develop during the diurnal\r\nconvective maximum Wednesday morning.  If this does not happen, the\r\nsystem should decay to a remnant low on Wednesday.\r\n\r\nGeorgette has moved little since the last advisory.  Water vapor\r\nimagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough is moving westward to the\r\nnorthwest and west of Georgette.  This feature has likely weakened\r\nthe subtropical ridge and contributed to the current lack of\r\nmotion. The dynamical models forecast the ridge to build north of\r\nGeorgette during the next 48-72 hours, which should steer the\r\ncyclone or its remnants northwestward and then westward.  While the\r\nnew forecast track is somewhat slower, it is otherwise similar to\r\nthe previous track and lies near the various consensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 18.4N 128.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 19.0N 129.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 20.0N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 20.9N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 21.7N 135.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-07-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 26 2016\r\n\r\nConvective cloud tops continue to warm near Georgette, and there are\r\nno longer any pixels -50C or colder in infrared satellite imagery.\r\nSubjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are now between\r\n30 kt and 55 kt, so the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt on\r\nthis advisory.  Georgette will be moving through a dry environment\r\nand over sea surface temperatures between 23-25C during the next\r\ncouple of days, which should cause further weakening.  If deep\r\nconvection does not redevelop, then Georgette will likely become\r\npost-tropical in the next 12-24 hours.  The global models then\r\nindicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough by day\r\n3.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes indicate that Georgette is moving again, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 335/3 kt.  A\r\nlow- to mid-level trough extending north of Georgette toward the\r\nCalifornia coast appears to have been influencing the cyclone's\r\nrecent motion.  This feature is expected to run out ahead of\r\nGeorgette during the next day or two, and a re-establishment of the\r\nsubtropical ridge should cause the cyclone to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward and accelerate through 48 hours.  The NHC forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous one and is close to the TVCE\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 18.8N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 19.4N 129.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 20.4N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 21.1N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 21.6N 135.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Georgette","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-07-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette is on borrowed time.  Enhanced IR imagery shows no deep\r\nconvection associated with the system, and if this condition\r\npersists, the cyclone will be declared a remnant low later today.\r\nThe official forecast delays this event slightly, to allow for the\r\npossibility that thunderstorms may redevelop in the circulation.\r\nA scatterometer overpass indicated that the maximum winds were 35\r\nkt, and that these tropical-storm-force winds were confined to the\r\nnortheastern quadrant of the system.  A continued spin down of the\r\ncirculation over cooler waters is forecast and the cyclone should\r\ndissipate in 2-3 days.\r\n\r\nThe center is difficult to locate on night time images, but my best\r\nestimate of initial motion is 310/5 kt.  Georgette, or its remnant\r\nlow, should move on a west-northwestward to westward heading, within\r\nthe low-level tradewinds, until dissipation.  The official track\r\nforecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 19.1N 129.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 19.8N 130.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 20.6N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 21.2N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 21.2N 136.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Georgette","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-07-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP082016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 27 2016\r\n\r\nGeorgette has been devoid of organized deep convection since about\r\n0100 UTC. The cyclone is currently located over 24.5 deg C SSTs and\r\nmoving toward colder water. In addition, Georgette has entrained a\r\nlarge field of stable stratocumulus clouds, which now completely\r\nencircle the system. Therefore, Georgette is now declared a remnant\r\nlow, and this is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane\r\nCenter on this system. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a\r\n0534Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that contained one 34-kt wind\r\nvector, and an assumed gradual spin-down of the circulation since\r\nthen.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 300/08 kt. A west-northwestward to\r\nwestward motion at about the same forward speed is expected during\r\nthe next couple of days while the low continues to weaken.\r\nDissipation is forecast to occur by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nEven though Georgette is no longer a tropical cyclone, recent\r\naltimeter data indicated that an area of seas higher than 12 ft\r\nstill existed near the system.  For additional information, please\r\nsee High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 19.5N 129.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 20.1N 130.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 20.8N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.1N 134.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 21.0N 137.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-31 16:30:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n930 AM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe first visible satellite images this morning indicate that a\r\nwell-defined center has formed in association with the area of low\r\npressure located well southwest of Mexico.  This, along with the\r\nincrease in convective organization, supports classifying this\r\nsystem as a tropical cyclone.  A 1401Z SSMIS overpass indicated that\r\nthe low-level center was located beneath the convective canopy, and\r\nthe initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak\r\nestimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is currently situated over waters of 27-28C and the\r\nshear is expected to remain relatively low, so gradual strengthening\r\nis forecast through the first 48 hours.  Later in the period, the\r\ncyclone will move over cooler waters and into a drier and more\r\nstable thermodynamic environment, which should result in gradual\r\nweakening to remnant low status.  The NHC intensity prediction is a\r\nlittle above the latest intensity consensus, but not as high as the\r\nHWRF and COAMPS-TC models.  During the weakening phase, the NHC\r\nforecast is below the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/08.\r\nHowever, the track forecast reasoning appears relatively\r\nstraightforward, as a mid-level ridge is expected to build westward\r\nto the north of the cyclone through the forecast period.  This\r\nshould result in a west-northwestward heading, with a bit of a\r\nwestward bend in the track at days 4 and 5 as the shallow cyclone\r\ncomes under the influence of the low-level trade winds.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is close to the middle of the guidance envelope near\r\nthe multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThis marks the formation of the eighth tropical cyclone in the basin\r\nin July, tying the record set in July of 1985.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1630Z 14.2N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 14.9N 121.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 15.7N 123.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 16.6N 126.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 17.8N 128.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 20.3N 134.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 21.5N 139.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1200Z 22.5N 144.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery showed a low-level cloud swirl emerge\r\nfrom the convective canopy after the previous advisory was issued.\r\nHowever, for now it appears that this was not the primary center of\r\nthe cyclone, as it has dissipated and low cloud lines continue to\r\nsuggest a center closer to the convection.  Given the somewhat\r\ndisorganized nature of the system for now, the initial intensity is\r\nheld at 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from\r\nSAB.\r\n\r\nThe SHIPS model analysis shows about 10 kt of north-northwesterly\r\nshear over the depression, which is consistent with the convection\r\nbeing displaced mainly to the south and east of the center.  This\r\nshear is expected to relax a little, but the cyclone will only be\r\nover SSTs above 26C for the next 36 hours or so.  This should allow\r\nfor some strengthening, followed by gradual weakening to post-\r\ntropical status over cool waters and in a dry, stable atmospheric\r\nenvironment in about 3 days.  The new NHC intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and close to the IVCN consensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe uncertainty in the center position leads to an uncertain\r\ninitial motion estimate of 295/09, which is based in part on\r\ncontinuity.  Despite this, the track forecast reasoning remains\r\nrelatively straightforward,  as a mid-level ridge is expected to\r\nbuild westward to the north of the cyclone through the forecast\r\nperiod.  This should result in a west-northwestward heading and\r\nan increase in forward speed over the next 48 hours.  After that\r\ntime, the track should gradually bend back toward the west as the\r\nincreasingly shallow cyclone comes under the influence of the\r\nlow-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is about 40 n mi\r\nnorth of the previous one due to the adjustment in the initial\r\nposition, but is otherwise near the middle of the guidance envelope\r\nand the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 15.4N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 15.9N 122.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 16.7N 124.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 17.8N 127.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 19.1N 129.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 21.1N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 22.4N 140.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1800Z 23.0N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much since the\r\nprevious advisory.  Geostationary satellite and microwave images\r\nindicate that most of the deep convection is confined to the\r\nsouthern portion of the circulation with some thin and fragmented\r\nbands to the north of the center.  The Dvorak T-number from TAFB was\r\nlowered slightly from that of the previous classification. Given the\r\nlack of increased organization, the initial intensity is again held\r\nat 30 kt.\r\n\r\nSome strengthening seems likely during the next day or so while the\r\ndepression remains over relatively warm water and in conducive\r\natmospheric conditions.  The strengthening trend should be\r\nrelatively short lived though since the cyclone is forecast to move\r\nover cool waters and into a more stable environment in about 36\r\nhours, which should induce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one and is similar to the SHIPS\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving toward the\r\nwest-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 10 kt.  A slightly faster\r\nwest-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days as a\r\nmid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone strengthens.  A turn\r\nto the west is predicted by the end of the period when the shallow\r\ncyclone is steered by the low-level trade winds.  The models are in\r\ngood agreement, and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 15.8N 122.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 16.5N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 17.6N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 18.7N 128.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 19.9N 131.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  04/0000Z 21.9N 136.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/0000Z 22.8N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0000Z 23.2N 147.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved since the previous\r\nadvisory with the low-level center now embedded within a developing\r\ncentral dense overcast feature. Satellite intensity estimates are\r\nT3.0/45 kt from TAFB, T2.5/35 kt from SAB, and T2.7/39 kt from\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been\r\nincreased to 35 kt for this advisory, and the cyclone has been\r\nupgraded to Tropical Storm Howard, the eighth named storm of the\r\n2016 season and the eighth named storm during the past 30 days as\r\nwell.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 295/10 kt. There are no significant\r\nchanges to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Howard is\r\nexpected to move in a general west-northwestward motion for the next\r\n72 hours along the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge located\r\nto the north of the cyclone. After that time, the cyclone is\r\nforecast to become a shallow remnant low over much cooler water and\r\nbe steered westward by the low-level easterly tradewind flow. The\r\nnew NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models and\r\ndown the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nAdditional strengthening is forecast today and tonight while Howard\r\nremains over SSTs greater than 25.5 deg C. By 36-48 hours, the\r\ncyclone will be moving over sub-24 deg C water and into some modest\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear. That combination of unfavorable\r\nconditions will induce steady weakening, resulting in Howard\r\ndegenerating into a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is similar to previous forecast, and\r\nclosely follows the SHIPS and IVCN consensus intensity models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 16.1N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 16.8N 124.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 18.0N 127.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 19.1N 129.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/0600Z 20.2N 132.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  04/0600Z 21.9N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/0600Z 22.6N 143.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/0600Z 22.7N 149.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 01 2016\r\n\r\nHoward's convective structure has gradually been increasing in\r\norganization.  The cyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a\r\nlong curved band, at the head of which is a clearing around the\r\nlow-level center.  Subjective Dvorak satellite classifications are\r\nT2.5/35 kt and T3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  A blend\r\nof these is used to arrive at the initial intensity estimate of 45\r\nkt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/09.  Howard's primary steering\r\nmechanism is the western extension of a subtropical ridge located\r\nover the south-central United States, which is imparting a mostly\r\nwesterly course.  However, a mid- to upper-level low west of the\r\ncyclone is allowing for a greater northerly component of motion.\r\nThis general movement with some increase in forward speed is likely\r\nduring the next 2 days, after which time a turn toward the west\r\nis likely.  This should occur when Howard weakens and becomes a\r\nshallower cyclone in the trade-wind flow.  The official NHC track\r\nforecast is hardly unchanged from the previous one and is closest\r\nto a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nShips model output shows some westerly shear over the cyclone,\r\nperhaps related to Howard's outrunning the upper-level anticyclone\r\nover it. Otherwise, large-scale conditions are expected to be\r\nsufficiently conducive for some additional intensification during\r\nthe next 24 hours or so.  By 36-48 hours, Howard should reach much\r\ncooler waters and enter an increasingly drier and more stable\r\nenvironment, all of which should lead to weakening.  This should\r\nresult in a fast rate of weakening, and the system is forecast to\r\nbecome post-tropical in 48 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nclose to the multi-model consensus in the short term and then\r\nfollows the LGEM during the weakening phase.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 16.7N 123.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 17.5N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 18.7N 128.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0000Z 19.9N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1200Z 21.0N 133.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  04/1200Z 22.3N 139.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1200Z 22.9N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1200Z 22.9N 150.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016\r\n\r\nHoward's cloud pattern has become less organized since the last\r\nadvisory.  Although the cyclone has plenty of banding features,\r\nthey are generally confined to eastern half of its circulation.  The\r\nlow-level center has also recently become exposed, possibly due to\r\nwesterly shear.  Satellite classifications are T3.0/45 kt and\r\nT3.5/55 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity\r\nestimate is kept at 45 kt, on the lower end of these estimates\r\nbecause of the cyclone's degraded appearance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/11.  A subtropical ridge north\r\nof Howard is primarily responsible for the cyclone's steering, but a\r\nmid- to upper-level low to the west of it has been imparting a\r\ngreater northerly component of motion.  This general motion with\r\nsome slight increase in forward speed is likely for another couple\r\nof days, after which time a turn toward the west is expected.  The\r\nturn should occur once Howard weakens and becomes a much shallower\r\ncyclone embedded in the trade-wind flow.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is only adjusted slightly north of the previous one and is\r\nquite close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nSea surface temperatures are sufficiently high to allow for some\r\nintensification during the next 12 hours or so, but westerly shear\r\nover Howard may temper that.  Weakening should commence in about 24\r\nhours, and this rate of weakening should soon become faster as the\r\nlarge-scale thermodynamic become increasingly hostile.  Remnant low\r\nstatus is forecast in 48 hours, and dissipation is likely just\r\nafter day 5.  The new NHC intensity forecast is somewhat reduced\r\nrelative to the previous one and is a little lower than the multi-\r\nmodel consensus after 24 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 17.2N 125.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 18.4N 127.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 19.7N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/0600Z 20.8N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  03/1800Z 21.8N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/1800Z 22.9N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  05/1800Z 23.3N 146.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  06/1800Z 23.4N 151.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 01 2016\r\n\r\nVisible imagery and a 01/2038 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass show that\r\nHoward's center of circulation has become exposed to the west of the\r\ncloud canopy.  Additionally, the entire western half of the cyclone\r\nhas become devoid of deep convective banding.  It appears that\r\nmodest westerly shear is impinging on the storm and undercutting the\r\ndiffluent flow aloft.  A blend of the Final-T numbers from\r\nboth TAFB and SAB yields an initial intensity of 45 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next\r\n12 hours while Howard remains over SSTs greater than 26C. By the 24\r\nhour period, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler sub-24 deg\r\nC water. Cooler SSTs and increasing southwesterly shear should\r\ninduce steady weakening, resulting in Howard degenerating into a\r\npost-tropical cyclone in 48 hours, and a remnant low by day 3.\r\nAfter that time, the large-scale models show the remnant low\r\ndegenerating into a trough of low pressure.  The intensity forecast\r\nis a little above the previous forecast, but is lower than the IVCN\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nSatellite position estimates suggest that Howard is moving\r\ntoward the west-northwest, or 295 degrees, at about 12 kt.  Howard\r\nis expected to move in a general west-northwestward motion during\r\nthe next 72 hours along the southern periphery of a subtropical\r\nridge located to the north of the cyclone.  Through the remainder of\r\nthe period, the cyclone is forecast to become a shallow remnant low\r\nand turn toward the west following the low-level easterly tradewind\r\nflow.  The official NHC forecast is quite similar to the previous\r\none, and is hedged toward the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 17.7N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 18.7N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0000Z 20.0N 130.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1200Z 21.1N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0000Z 22.0N 136.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  05/0000Z 22.9N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0000Z 23.3N 147.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0000Z 23.2N 152.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has increased and become better organized since the\r\nprevious advisory with the development of a ragged CDO feature.\r\nHowever, recent ASCAT wind data indicate that the low-level center\r\nis displaced near the southern edge of the cloud shield due to some\r\nmodest southwesterly vertical wind shear. The intensity has been\r\nincreased to 50 kt based on ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B overpasses around\r\n0600Z.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/13 kt. Howard is forecast to\r\ncontinue moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next\r\n48 hours or so and gradually weaken. By 72 hours and beyond, Howard\r\nis expected to become a vertically shallow remnant low pressure\r\nsystem that will be steered westward by a expansive subtropical\r\nridge located to the north of the cyclone. The NHC model guidance\r\nremains tightly packed and the new forecast track, which lies close\r\nto multi-model consensus TVCN, is just an extension of the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nAfter the earlier brief convective hiatus while Howard was moving\r\nover a cold water pool, the cyclone is now moving over warmer water,\r\nwhich likely has aided in the recent redevelopment of significant\r\nconvection. Although some additional intensification is possible\r\ntoday, this will be short-lived due to Howard moving over sub-25 deg\r\nC sea-surface temperatures and into drier and more stable airmass in\r\n12 hours or so. After that time, the combination of even cooler\r\nwater and increasing southwesterly wind shear should induce steady\r\nweakening, with Howard becoming a post-tropical cyclone by 48 hours.\r\nWhile the remnant low is forecast to move back over SSTs near 26\r\ndeg C in 96-120 hours, strong southwesterly shear and a stable air\r\nmass should prevent any redevelopment of persistent deep convection.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is similar to the IVCN consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 18.3N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 19.3N 129.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/0600Z 20.5N 132.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  03/1800Z 21.4N 135.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/0600Z 22.1N 137.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  05/0600Z 22.9N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  06/0600Z 23.2N 149.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/0600Z 23.2N 154.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nHoward's convective structure has not changed much since the\r\nprevious advisory with the low-level center located just inside the\r\nsouthern edge of a ragged central dense overcast.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 50 kt, which is supported by a blend of CI\r\nnumbers from TAFB and SAB.  Howard's center is now moving over sea\r\nsurface temperatures between 25-26C, and it should reach sub-24C\r\nwaters in about 24 hours.  Vertical shear, on the other hand,\r\nprobably won't be too hostile for another 2 to 3 days.  Therefore,\r\ngradual weakening is forecast to begin in 12-24 hours and should\r\ncontinue through the end of the forecast period.  The intensity\r\nguidance is holding Howard's intensity up a little longer compared\r\nto previous cycles, and the updated NHC intensity forecast follows\r\nthis trend beginning at the 48-hour forecast period, lying close to\r\na blend of the SHIPS and LGEM models.  At this point, it is\r\nexpected that vertical shear would cause Howard to become\r\npost-tropical by 72 hours, which is also a little later than\r\nindicated in previous advisories.  It should be noted that the IVCN\r\nintensity consensus is 5-10 kt higher than the official forecast on\r\ndays 3-5, so additional adjustments to the forecast intensity and\r\ncyclone status may be necessary if it appears that Howard could hold\r\non as a tropical cyclone longer than currently anticipated.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 295/13 kt.  Howard is located near the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge, which is expected\r\nto build westward during the next 24 hours.  As a result, the storm\r\nshould continue west-northwestward for the next 48 hours, followed\r\nby a westward motion on days 3-5 once the cyclone becomes\r\npost-tropical and is steered by the low-level trade winds.  There\r\nis very little spread among the track models, and the NHC track\r\nforecast is essentially an update of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 18.8N 128.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 19.7N 130.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1200Z 20.8N 133.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0000Z 21.6N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1200Z 22.2N 139.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1200Z 22.8N 145.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  06/1200Z 23.0N 150.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  07/1200Z 23.0N 155.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave data indicate that deep convection is displaced a bit to\r\nthe north of the low-level center due to moderate southerly shear.\r\nSubjective Dvorak estimates are 3.0/45 kt while objective numbers\r\nhave actually increased to between 50-55 kt.  Due to the\r\nconflicting estimates, the initial intensity is being maintained at\r\n50 kt.\r\n\r\nHoward is located along the southwestern edge of the subtropical\r\nridge, and its initial motion remains 295/13 kt.  The ridge is\r\nforecast to build westward and remain situated north of the cyclone\r\nfor the entire forecast period, which should maintain Howard on a\r\nwest-northwestward or westward heading through day 5.  The track\r\nguidance remains tightly clustered, but there has been a notable\r\nsouthward shift in the overall model envelope, especially beyond\r\nday 3.  As a result, the NHC official forecast is also shifted a\r\nbit southward and is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nHoward is now moving over sea surface temperatures around 25C and\r\nis forecast to move over even colder waters for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays.  Vertical shear, on the other hand, is expected to be less\r\nthan 20 kt through 72 hours.  Possibly due to these conflicting\r\nconditions, the intensity forecast is somewhat uncertain.  The\r\nSHIPS and LGEM models indicate that the cyclone will steadily\r\nweaken to a remnant low through day 5, while the HWRF and GFDL\r\nmodels show a more gradual weakening rate, with even some\r\nre-intensification around days 3 and 4.  These models showed\r\nsimilar scenarios for Hurricane Darby, which moved through a\r\nsimilar region, and the SHIPS and LGEM models ended up having a\r\nsignificant low bias for that storm.  In addition, simulated\r\ninfrared satellite imagery derived from the GFS and ECMWF models\r\nshows the cyclone maintaining deep convection through 5 days.  The\r\nNHC official forecast continues to depict the system becoming\r\npost-tropical in 72 hours once the vertical shear increases above 20\r\nkt, but there is low confidence in the time of this transition.  In\r\naddition, the official forecast intensities are a little higher from\r\n36 hours and beyond compared to the previous forecast and are close\r\nto the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 19.3N 130.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 20.1N 132.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 21.7N 137.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 22.1N 140.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 22.5N 146.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 22.5N 151.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n120H  07/1800Z 23.0N 156.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nHoward is still displaying some convection this evening, but the\r\nextent and organization of the convection is diminishing.\r\nCorrespondingly, the Dvorak classifications are dropping and a\r\nblend of the TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT values indicate the intensity\r\nhas dropped to around 40-45 kt.  45 kt is used as the\r\ninitial intensity, though this may be generous given Howard's\r\nrecent trends.\r\n\r\nThe initial position of Howard has significant uncertainty, as\r\nthere have been no microwave images available nor has the\r\nlast-light visible imagery been very illuminating.  The initial\r\nmotion is assessed as 13 kt toward the west-northwest, as the\r\nsystem is primarily being steered by a mid-level ridge to its\r\nnortheast.  The track models are tightly clustered and suggest a\r\ngradual turn toward the west at about the same forward speed during\r\nthe next few days.  The NHC track forecast is nearly the same as\r\nthat from the previous advisory and is based upon the TVCN track\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nWhile the vertical shear should remain relatively low over Howard\r\nduring the next day and a half, the SSTs that Howard will traverse\r\nshould get quite cool and the atmosphere dry and stable.  At about\r\ntwo days, the SSTs become lukewarm but the shear becomes\r\nprohibitive for intensification.  Thus it is expected that Howard\r\nwill gradually weaken, and in about two days lose its deep\r\nconvection and become a post-tropical cyclone.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is based upon the LGEM and SHIPS statistical/dynamical\r\nmethods, as the three dynamical hurricane models - HWRF, GFDL, and\r\nCOAMPS - all unrealistically re-intensify Howard between days three\r\nand five.  This official forecast calls for slightly weaker\r\nintensities than those indicated in the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 20.1N 131.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 20.9N 133.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 21.7N 136.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 22.3N 138.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 22.6N 141.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 23.0N 147.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 23.0N 152.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0000Z 23.0N 157.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Howard has continued to decrease\r\nand become separated from the low-level center overnight.  Several\r\nmicrowave overpasses since the previous advisory and recent ASCAT\r\ndata have been extremely helpful in locating the center, which is\r\ndisplaced well south of the remaining area of cold cloud tops.  The\r\ninitial wind speed has been reduced to 40 kt, which is based on the\r\nscatterometer data that revealed 35 to 40 kt winds over the\r\nnortheastern portion of the circulation.\r\n\r\nHoward is moving west-northwestward or 290/13 kt. The track\r\nforecast philosophy remains the same as the previous advisory.  The\r\ntropical storm should move west-northwestward to the south of a\r\nsubtropical ridge today, then turn westward by Thursday as the\r\ncyclone weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level\r\neasterly trades.  The model guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, but has generally shifted southward at days 4 and\r\n5.  The NHC track has been adjusted accordingly, but it remains near\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm should continue to weaken during the next day or\r\nso while it moves over cool water and into a drier and more stable\r\nenvironment.  Howard is forecast to become a remnant low in 24 to\r\n36 hours, but this could occur sooner if organized deep convection\r\ndoes not redevelop later today.  The cyclone will be move over\r\nslightly warm waters after 48 hours, but increasing shear and\r\nunfavorable thermodynamic conditions should prevent\r\nrestrengthening.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 20.3N 132.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 21.0N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 21.7N 137.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 22.1N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 22.3N 143.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 22.5N 148.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 22.3N 153.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/0600Z 21.8N 158.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Howard","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nHoward's organized deep convection dissipated around 0600 UTC, and\r\nthe convection is not likely to return due to unfavorable\r\nthermodynamic conditions.  The initial intensity estimate is lowered\r\nto 35 kt, assuming some spin-down of the vortex since an overnight\r\nASCAT pass. Howard should become a remnant low later today, and open\r\nup into a trough in about 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/12.  Now a shallower cyclone,\r\nHoward should begin to turn toward the west or possibly\r\nwest-southwest under the influence of a low-level subtropical ridge\r\nprior to dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 21.1N 133.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 21.6N 135.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 22.1N 138.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 22.3N 141.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 22.6N 144.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 22.6N 149.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 22.0N 154.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Howard","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP092016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092016\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nHoward's deep convection has now been gone long enough to designate\r\nthe system as post-tropical, and this will be the last advisory.\r\nThe wind speed is set to 30 kt, in accordance with the low-end\r\nestimate from ASCAT a few hours ago of 30 to 35 kt.  The circulation\r\nof Howard should gradually spin down over the next few days due to\r\ncold water temperatures, increasing shear and entrainment of dry\r\nmid-level air. A strong surface high over the eastern Pacific should\r\ncause an enhanced gradient, leading to stronger winds on the\r\nnorthern side of Howard than normally would be expected.  The\r\nofficial forecast reflects this solution, which is a bit higher than\r\nthe previous forecast.\r\n\r\nHoward is moving 290/14, and should turn westward by tomorrow under\r\nthe influence of the subtropical ridge.  The post-tropical cyclone\r\nshould turn west-southwestward in a couple of days due to the\r\norientation of the ridge, and open up into a trough in 4 or 5 days\r\nwhile the system is near the Hawaiian Islands.  Guidance remains in\r\ngood agreement, and only a small southward track change was made\r\nin the new NHC track prediction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 21.3N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 21.7N 137.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 22.1N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 22.3N 143.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 22.3N 146.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 22.0N 151.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 21.5N 156.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate the area of low pressure well southwest\r\nof mainland Mexico has become better organized.  ASCAT data\r\nindicate the center is fairly well defined, with curved banding\r\nfeatures forming around the surface center.  Thus tropical cyclone\r\nadvisories are being initiated on this system. Dvorak estimates and\r\nthe ASCAT data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt.  Gradual\r\nstrengthening is forecast for the next few days while the cyclone\r\nremains over warm water, with weak-to-moderate shear and high mid-\r\nlevel humidity.  The official forecast is a bit higher than the\r\nmodel consensus, since most of the guidance has had a low bias this\r\nseason.\r\n\r\nASCAT and microwave data give a relatively confident initial motion\r\nof 290/15.  A strong subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific is\r\nexpected to steer the cyclone relatively quickly to the west over\r\nthe next few days.  The ridge is forecast to weaken on days 4 and 5,\r\nwhich should cause a decrease in forward speed while the system\r\napproaches the central Pacific.  Track guidance is in remarkable\r\nagreement for the first advisory, and the official forecast is near,\r\nbut slightly faster than, the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/2100Z 13.3N 115.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/0600Z 13.9N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  03/1800Z 14.5N 121.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  04/1800Z 15.5N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  05/1800Z 16.1N 132.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  06/1800Z 16.9N 136.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  07/1800Z 18.0N 140.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ten-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 02 2016\r\n\r\nThe deep convection associated with the tropical depression is\r\nshowing some limited banding features in combination with a\r\ndeveloping central dense overcast.  Dvorak classification numbers\r\nare gradually rising, though a blend of TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS-ADT\r\nvalues still indicates an intensity of about 30 kt.\r\n\r\nA 1941Z AMSR2 microwave image indicated that the center of the\r\nsystem was slightly farther north than earlier indicated.\r\nExtrapolating forward in time from that point suggests a center\r\nthat is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection, perhaps\r\nreflecting the moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone.\r\nThe initial motion is assessed at a fast 17 kt toward the\r\nwest-northwest, primarily due to the steering of an east-west\r\nextended deep-layer ridge to its north.  The tightly packed track\r\nguidance suggests a turn toward the west at a slightly slower rate\r\nof forward speed during the next few days.  The NHC track forecast\r\nis slightly north of the previous advisory for the next day due to\r\nthe more northerly initial motion, and then nearly the same out\r\nthrough the end of the period.  This is supported by the global\r\nand HWRF model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe system should only gradually intensify during the next\r\nday or so because of the moderate northeasterly shear and as the\r\nsystem develops an inner core structure.  A more steady\r\nstrengthening is anticipated out to about day three as the shear\r\nrelaxes and the system moves over 28C water and through a very\r\nmoist and unstable atmosphere.  Around day four or five, the cyclone\r\nmay start gradually weakening as SSTs decrease and the shear\r\nincreases again.  The NHC intensity forecast is based upon the IVCN\r\nconsensus and peaks just slightly higher than that from the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0300Z 13.9N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1200Z 14.5N 120.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0000Z 15.1N 123.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1200Z 15.4N 126.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0000Z 15.7N 129.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0000Z 16.5N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0000Z 17.5N 138.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  08/0000Z 18.5N 142.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has gradually improved\r\nsince yesterday afternoon, with an increase in banding over the\r\nwestern portion of the circulation.  Microwave images show\r\nthat the center is located near the northeastern edge of the\r\nconvective band due to moderate northeasterly shear, but a new\r\nburst of deep convection has very recently developed near the\r\nestimate center location.  Although earlier ASCAT data showed\r\nmaximum winds around 30 kt, the recent improvement in organization\r\nand Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB support increasing the\r\ninitial intensity to 35 kt.  Ivette becomes the ninth tropical storm\r\nto form in the eastern Pacific basin since July 2nd.\r\n\r\nIvette is moving westward at an atypically fast speed of 17 kt.\r\nA strong subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep\r\nit moving westward to west-northwestward during the next several\r\ndays, with the forward speed gradually decreasing as it nears the\r\nwestern portion of the ridge.  By late in the period, Ivette should\r\nturn west-northwestward and decelerate further as a break in the\r\nridge develops between 140W and 150W.  The updated NHC track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory, but has been nudged southward to\r\nbe closer to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe northeasterly shear affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast\r\nto decrease during the next 24 hours.  This should allow\r\nstrengthening while Ivette moves over warm water and remains\r\nin a moist environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is above the\r\nstatistical guidance and is closer to the HWRF model, which brings\r\nIvette to hurricane strength in a couple of days.  Increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear, slightly cooler SSTs, and drier mid-level air\r\nshould cause gradual weakening late in the period.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/0900Z 14.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  03/1800Z 14.6N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  04/0600Z 15.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  04/1800Z 15.2N 127.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  05/0600Z 15.4N 130.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  06/0600Z 16.0N 134.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  07/0600Z 17.0N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  08/0600Z 18.0N 142.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nIvette's convective pattern is gradually improving, with a band\r\nlying to the west of a central cluster of deep convection.\r\nHowever, recent microwave data still shows the low-level center\r\ndisplaced to the northeast of the deepest convection due to some\r\nshear.  Dvorak intensity estimates are T3.0/45 kt from SAB and\r\nT2.5/35 kt from TAFB; the initial intensity is therefore raised to\r\n40 kt.\r\n\r\nSea surface temperatures are expected to be 27-28C for the next\r\n96 hours, while the vertical shear affecting the cyclone is\r\nforecast to gradually diminish over the next couple of days.  These\r\nconditions would seem to support steady or even fast strengthening.\r\nSurprisingly, the SHIPS, LGEM, GFDL, and HWRF models only intensify\r\nIvette to near the hurricane threshold.  Given the seemingly\r\nfavorable environment, the NHC official forecast is above all of the\r\nmain intensity models, with the exception of COAMPS-TC, and it does\r\nnot deviate from the peak intensity indicated in the previous\r\nadvisory.  Slightly lower SSTs and increasing shear are likely to\r\ncause some weakening by days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nA strong subtropical ridge extending westward from northern Mexico\r\nis causing Ivette to move quickly west-northwestward at 285/15 kt.\r\nThe ridge is expected to remain entrenched north of Ivette for the\r\nnext three days, putting the cyclone on a westward heading but with\r\na gradually decreasing forward speed.  By days 4 and 5, Ivette\r\ncould gain a little more latitude due to a break in the ridge that\r\nwill develop northeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  There is high\r\nconfidence in the future track of Ivette due to a tightly clustered\r\nmodel envelope, and the NHC track forecast is mainly an update of\r\nthe previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/1500Z 14.6N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0000Z 15.0N 122.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1200Z 15.2N 125.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0000Z 15.4N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1200Z 15.6N 130.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1200Z 16.5N 135.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1200Z 18.0N 138.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  08/1200Z 19.0N 141.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nIvette continues to display a sheared convective pattern with the\r\nlow-level center located to the north-northeast of the deepest\r\nconvection.  Recent ASCAT data shows that the maximum winds are\r\nnear 40 kt, which is also an average of the Dvorak estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  The vertical shear affecting the cyclone is still\r\nexpected to diminish during the next 24 hours, and sea surface\r\ntemperatures will be between 27-28C for the next 3 to 4 days.\r\nTherefore, strengthening is anticipated, with a peak intensity\r\nlikely occurring in about 3 days.  Most of the intensity models\r\nstill don't show significant intensification even though the shear\r\ngets quite low in a couple of days.  For now, the NHC official\r\nintensity forecast leans on persistence and continues to be near the\r\nhigh end of the intensity guidance.  Incidentally, the HWRF model\r\nhas come in a little stronger on this cycle and now shows Ivette\r\ngetting near the threshold of a category 2 hurricane.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 295/15 kt.  The subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth is expected to turn Ivette westward by tonight, with that\r\nheading continuing through 48 hours.  After that time, a break in\r\nthe ridge to the northeast of Hawaii is forecast to cause Ivette to\r\nturn back to the west-northwest and slow down on days 3-5.\r\nConfidence in the track forecast remains high through day 5 due to a\r\ntightly packed guidance envelope, and the official NHC track\r\nforecast is relatively close to the previous forecast and the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  03/2100Z 14.9N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/0600Z 15.2N 124.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  04/1800Z 15.4N 127.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  05/0600Z 15.5N 129.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  05/1800Z 15.8N 131.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  06/1800Z 17.0N 135.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  07/1800Z 18.5N 139.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  08/1800Z 19.5N 142.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 03 2016\r\n\r\nModerate northeasterly vertical shear continues to afflict\r\nIvette, as the deep convection is asymmetric with most of the cold\r\ncloud tops southwest of the center.  A blend of the TAFB and SAB\r\nsubjective Dvorak, the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak, and AMSU estimates\r\ngives an intensity of 40 kt, unchanged from the previous advisory.\r\nA pair of ASCAT scatterometer passes around 18Z indicates that\r\nIvette remains small sized, but slightly larger in\r\ntropical-storm-force wind radii than previously estimated.\r\n\r\nThe scatterometer passes and an AMSR2 image at 2023Z suggested that\r\nIvette's center was farther south than previously analyzed.  This\r\nwas confirmed by the brief appearance of the low-level center in\r\ngeostationary visible imagery, as it peeked out from the edge of the\r\ndeep convection.  Ivette is moving toward the west at 14 kt, along\r\nthe southern edge of a deep-layer subtropical ridge extending\r\nwestward from Mexico.  The tropical cyclone should continue moving\r\ntoward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower rate of\r\nforward speed for the next few days.  The NHC track forecast is\r\nbased upon the tightly clustered global and regional hurricane\r\nmodels, and is slightly south of the previous advisory because of\r\nthe southward revision to the initial position.\r\n\r\nThe continuing steady state of Ivette would argue for little\r\nchange in the short term, but the global models insist that the\r\nvertical shear should be diminishing now.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast assumes that the shear will lower during the next two to\r\nthree days while the SSTs are quite warm and the atmosphere is\r\nmoist and unstable, leading to a steady intensification of Ivette.\r\nBeyond day three, the vertical shear should ramp up again out of the\r\nsouthwest as a large upper-level trough approaches Ivette while the\r\nSSTs cool, causing Ivette to gradually weaken.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is based upon a blend of the SHIPS and HWRF models, and is\r\nslightly below that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0300Z 14.6N 123.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1200Z 14.7N 125.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0000Z 14.9N 128.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1200Z 15.1N 130.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0000Z 15.5N 132.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0000Z 16.7N 136.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0000Z 18.0N 140.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  09/0000Z 19.0N 143.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nShear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air appear to have\r\ntaken a toll on Ivette, as the thunderstorm activity has decreased\r\nin coverage and organization during the past 12 hours or so.  Recent\r\nmicrowave and geostationary satellite pictures show very little\r\nbanding features and a significant displacement of the convection to\r\nthe south and southwest of the low-level center.  Despite the\r\ndecrease in organization, overnight ASCAT data showed 35 to 40 kt\r\nwinds over the northern semicircle of the tropical cyclone.\r\nTherefore, the initial wind speed remains 40 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nA UW/CIMMS shear analysis and the SHIPS model suggest that the\r\nshear may be beginning to decrease, however the current lack of\r\norganization and nearby dry air is likely to prevent significant\r\nintensification today.  However, strengthening is still\r\nanticipated by tonight or Friday when Ivette is forecast to\r\nbe over warm water and in a low shear environment.  After day 3,\r\ncooler waters and increasing southwesterly shear should begin the\r\nweakening process.  The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly\r\nlower than the previous advisory, but remains above the statistical\r\nguidance, and it is closer to the HWRF that still brings Ivette\r\nto hurricane intensity in a couple of days.\r\n\r\nIvette continues to move just north of due west at about 13 kt. The\r\ntropical storm should continue moving westward during the next 36\r\nhours as it remains to the south of a strong subtropical ridge.\r\nAfter that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to\r\nweaken when a trough deepens to the north of the Hawaiian Islands.\r\nThis should cause Ivette to turn west-northwestward and slow down.\r\nThere is very good agreement among the track guidance this morning\r\nand higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is near the multi-model consensus and is\r\nessentially an update of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/0900Z 14.7N 124.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  04/1800Z 14.8N 126.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/0600Z 14.9N 129.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  05/1800Z 15.2N 131.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/0600Z 15.8N 133.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/0600Z 16.9N 136.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  08/0600Z 18.3N 140.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  09/0600Z 19.3N 143.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nAfter Ivette produced very little convection near its low-level\r\ncenter last evening, a large burst of thunderstorms developed around\r\n0700 UTC, and the cirrus canopy has continued to expand since then.\r\nHowever, there is no data to support that this convection has led to\r\nany intensification yet, and the maximum winds remain 40 kt based on\r\nDvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45 kt and 2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB,\r\nrespectively.\r\n\r\nVertical shear appears to have decreased below 10 kt, which may be\r\nfostering the recent increase in convection.  With sea surface\r\ntemperatures remaining between 27-28C and shear expected to be low\r\nduring the next three days or so, intensification is still\r\nanticipated.  But because Ivette has failed to strengthen during the\r\npast 24 hours, the peak winds shown by the intensity models continue\r\nto decrease, and none of the guidance makes the cyclone a hurricane.\r\nFor now, the NHC official forecast continues to show Ivette reaching\r\nhurricane intensity in 2-3 days, but this forecast may need to be\r\nadjusted if Ivette does not start strengthening soon.  A significant\r\nincrease in shear and marginal SSTs should lead to fairly quick\r\nweakening on days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nIvette is moving westward, or 280/13 kt.  A strong subtropical high\r\nlocated north of the cyclone is expected to steer Ivette westward\r\nfor the next 36 hours.  After that time, a break in the ridge\r\nnortheast of Hawaii should cause the storm to slow down and move\r\nwest-northwestward through the end of the forecast period.  Again\r\nthere have been no significant changes in the track guidance, and\r\nthe updated NHC track forecast remains very close to the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/1500Z 15.1N 126.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0000Z 15.2N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1200Z 15.4N 130.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0000Z 15.7N 132.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1200Z 16.3N 134.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1200Z 18.5N 140.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  09/1200Z 19.5N 143.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nVertical shear over Ivette is gradually decreasing, and the\r\nlow-level center is now embedded beneath a persistent CDO feature.\r\nA recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum winds are now near 45\r\nkt, which is supported by an average of subjective and objective\r\nsatellite intensity estimates.  Ivette may finally be starting the\r\ngradual intensification trend that has been forecast, and the\r\nintensity guidance indicates that strengthening should continue for\r\nthe next 48 hours while sea surface temperatures are warm and\r\nvertical shear is low.  Most of the models continue to keep Ivette\r\nbelow hurricane strength, but the NHC intensity forecast still\r\nmakes the cyclone a hurricane in 48 hours, which is supported by\r\nthe Florida State Superensemble and the SHIPS model.  After 48\r\nhours, increasing shear and lower oceanic heat content should cause\r\nfast weakening through day 5.\r\n\r\nThe ASCAT pass was useful in helping to reposition Ivette's center,\r\nand the initial motion estimate is now 270/12 kt.  The subtropical\r\nridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to steer Ivette\r\nwestward for the next 24 hours.  Thereafter, a break in the ridge\r\nto the northeast of Hawaii should cause the cyclone to turn\r\nwest-northwestward and decelerate.  The updated NHC track forecast\r\nis adjusted a little southward during the first 3 days to account\r\nfor the refinement of the initial position.  Otherwise, it lies\r\nvery close to the multi-model consensus in the middle of a tightly\r\npacked guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 14.7N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 14.8N 129.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 15.0N 131.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 16.1N 134.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 17.4N 137.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 18.5N 141.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  09/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 04 2016\r\n\r\nThough it may sound like a broken record, Ivette still is\r\nstruggling to intensify and is showing the detrimental effects of\r\nvertical shear.  The low-level center appears to be on the northwest\r\nside of the small area of cold cloud tops, consistent with some\r\nwest-northwesterly shear as shown in the SHIPS diagnostics and the\r\nCIMSS analyses.  Yet, the deep-layer vertical shear is only 5-10\r\nkt, which usually is conducive for intensification.  Perhaps it is\r\nbecause of the small size of Ivette - tropical-storm-force winds\r\nonly out to 60 nm at most - which makes it more susceptible to\r\nrelatively small amounts of shear.  A blend of the TAFB, SAB, and\r\nCIMSS Dvorak current intensity estimates gives 45 kt, which is\r\nunchanged from the previous advisory. An earlier ASCAT scatterometer\r\npass confirmed the small size of Ivette.\r\n\r\nIvette has about two days left to intensify under what appear to be\r\nconducive environmental conditions.  After a couple days, the SSTs\r\ncool and the low-level moisture decreases, but still at levels that\r\ncould support intensification.  By days four and five, however, the\r\nvertical shear should reach at least 20 kt due to an upper-level\r\ntrough approaching Ivette.  Gradual to steady intensification is\r\nthus expected to about 36-48 hours with gradual to steady weakening\r\nthereafter.  The NHC intensity forecast is closest to a blend of the\r\nSHIPS statistical technique and the COAMPS regional dynamical model\r\nand is slightly less than that predicted in the previous advisory.\r\nGiven the poor intensity forecasts thus far, this prediction has a\r\nlarge uncertainty.\r\n\r\nIvette is moving toward the west at 12 kt, primarily being steered\r\nby the deep-layer subtropical ridge extending westward out of\r\nMexico.  The tropical cyclone should begin bending toward the\r\nwest-northwest in a couple days as it attempts to round the western\r\nperiphery of the ridge.  By day four or five, Ivette should turn\r\nback toward the west as the decaying system is advected in the\r\nlow-level tradewind flow.  All of the reliable models are in close\r\nagreement and the NHC track forecast - based upon the TVCN track\r\nconsensus - is nearly unchanged.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 14.8N 128.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 14.9N 130.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 15.3N 132.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 15.9N 134.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 16.6N 135.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 18.0N 138.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 18.7N 142.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  10/0000Z 19.0N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the convective organization of\r\nIvette overnight.  The low-level center remains exposed to the\r\nwest and northwest of a loosely curved band of thunderstorms, due\r\nto westerly to northwesterly shear.  Subjective and objective\r\nDvorak T-numbers are all near T3.0, which yields an initial\r\nwind speed of 45 kt.  Although the shear is not very strong, it\r\nappears the small size of the cyclone and perhaps some nearby dry\r\nmid-level air in combination with the shear have prevented\r\nintensification during the past day.  The GFS-based SHIPS guidance\r\nindicates that the shear will decrease during the next 24 hours or\r\nso, but the ECMWF model shows a continuation of some upper-level\r\nwesterlies over Ivette.  Because of these differences in the\r\nexpected upper-level winds, the NHC intensity forecast is more\r\nuncertain than normal.  The updated intensity forecast calls for\r\nsome slight strengthening during the next 36 hours, but it is lower\r\nthan the previous advisory, and it is closest to the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus.  After 48 h, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler\r\nSSTs should cause a fairly rapid spin down of Ivette, and the\r\ncyclone is likely to become a remnant low in 4 to 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving westward or 275/12 kt.  Ivette should\r\nturn west-northwestward in 12 to 24 hours as a deepening mid- to\r\nupper-level trough to the north of the Hawaiian Islands weakens the\r\nwestern portion of the subtropical ridge.  After day 3, Ivette is\r\nforecast to turn back westward after it weakens and is steered by\r\nthe low-level easterly trades.  There remains high confidence in the\r\ntrack forecast since the dynamical models continue to be in good\r\nagreement.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 14.9N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 15.2N 131.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 15.8N 133.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 16.4N 134.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 17.2N 136.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 18.5N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  09/0600Z 19.0N 142.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  10/0600Z 18.8N 146.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nIvette continues to have a ragged appearance on satellite imagery,\r\nand recent microwave data showed that all the deep convection is\r\nlocated to the south and southeast of the center.  Still, Dvorak CI\r\nnumbers from TAFB and SAB, as well as the UW-CIMSS ADT, support\r\nmaintaining an intensity of 45 kt.  Vertical shear does not appear\r\nvery high (about 10 kt according to SHIPS guidance and UW-CIMSS),\r\nbut it is from a westerly direction, which is not great for\r\nintensification.  Since sea surface temperatures remain warm, only\r\nmodest strengthening is anticipated during the next 24 hours.  After\r\nthat time, deep-layer westerly shear increases over 20 kt, and this\r\nshould cause Ivette to weaken quickly.  In fact, the NHC forecast\r\nnow calls for the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low in about 4\r\ndays.  This forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it\r\nlies close to the IVCN intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nIvette continues to move westward (275 degrees), but its speed has\r\ndecreased to 11 kt.  Subtropical high pressure located to the north\r\nof the cyclone is causing the current westward motion, but Ivette\r\nis approaching a break in the ridge located northeast of Hawaii.\r\nTherefore, the cyclone is expected to turn west-northwestward and\r\nslow down some more very soon, with that heading continuing through\r\nday 3.  Once Ivette becomes a remnant low, it should turn westward\r\nin the low-level trade winds.  The track guidance remains in good\r\nagreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast is\r\nvery close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 15.1N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 15.4N 132.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 16.1N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 16.8N 135.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 17.5N 137.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 18.6N 140.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1200Z 18.8N 143.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1200Z 18.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nVisible and microwave satellite imagery indicate that deep-layer\r\nwesterly shear continues to affect Ivette.  However, water vapor\r\nimagery does show cirrus expanding westward, so the shear is most\r\nlikely confined to the layer below the outflow level.  Nonetheless,\r\nDvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and\r\nT3.5/55 kt, respectively, and the UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T5.3/53 kt.\r\nBased on these data, the initial intensity is raised to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 280/11 kt.  Ivette is located due south of a\r\nmid-level anticyclone, which is causing the cyclone's westward\r\nmotion.  Ivette will soon be reaching the western edge of the\r\nanticyclone, causing it to turn west-northwestward and slow down\r\nsoon while it approaches a mid- to upper-level trough northeast of\r\nHawaii.  After day 3, the remnant low associated with Ivette should\r\nturn westward, steered by the low-level trades.  Although the ECMWF\r\nis somewhat faster and farther south than the other models, there\r\nis still very little spread among the guidance.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is just a little south of the multi-model consensus and\r\nnot too different from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nVertical shear is probably not going to decrease, and, in fact, it\r\nshould increase to over 20 kt in about 36 hours, lasting through the\r\nrest of the 5-day period.  Ivette does appear that it will reach\r\nwarmer waters (around 29C) in about 24 hours, which could foster\r\njust a little more strengthening.  After that time, however, the\r\nhostile shear should cause a fast weakening trend, and Ivette is\r\nlikely to become a remnant low by day 4.  The global models seem to\r\nsuggest that the remnant low could degenerate into a trough by day\r\n5, but for now the official forecast will carry a low through the\r\nend of the forecast period.  The NHC intensity forecast is very\r\nclose to the IVCN consensus and not too different from the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 15.5N 131.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 15.9N 133.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 16.6N 135.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 17.2N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 17.9N 138.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  08/1800Z 18.8N 141.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  09/1800Z 18.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  10/1800Z 18.0N 150.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 05 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective structure of Ivette has not changed substantially\r\nthis evening with most of the convection limited to the northeastern\r\nsemicircle.  A blend of the TAFB/SAB Dvorak, CIMSS Advanced Dvorak,\r\nand AMSU intensity estimates indicate about 50 kt at the initial\r\ntime, unchanged from the previous advisory.  Ivette remains small in\r\nsize, as indicated by the limited central dense overcast and\r\ntropical-storm-force wind radii from CIRA/AMSU.\r\n\r\nWhile Ivette remains over 28C water, the vertical shear appears to\r\nstill be disrupting the convection, as the center - like yesterday -\r\nis occasionally showing up just west of the cirrus canopy. Even\r\nthough the shear is quite low (5 to 10 kt from the CIMSS and SHIPS\r\nanalyses), Ivette's small size and moderate intensity isn't enough\r\nto overcome the shear's detrimental effects.  The tropical storm has\r\nabout 12-24 hours of time left to intensify before the combination\r\nof cool SSTs, dry stable air, and strong southwesterly vertical\r\nshear kicks in.  Once that combination begins, Ivette should\r\nsteadily weaken and become a remnant low in about four days and\r\ndissipate shortly afterwards.  The NHC intensity forecast, based\r\nupon the IVCN intensity consensus technique, indicates a slight\r\nintensification shortly before weakening commences in a couple days.\r\n It is of note that the only model to show significant strengthening\r\n- COAMPS, boosting Ivette to about 60 kt - has been the best\r\nperforming guidance during the cyclone's lifetime.\r\n\r\nThere have been several helpful microwave images of Ivette providing\r\nan accurate assessment of the system's center.  These indicate that\r\nthe tropical storm has not yet turned west-northwestward, as Ivette\r\ncontinues moving westward at 9 kt, due the steering influence of a\r\nmid-level subtropical ridge to its north.  Despite the current\r\nmotion, Ivette should turn toward the west-northwestward shortly, as\r\nit begins to round the western periphery of the ridge.  However, in\r\nabout three days, the tropical cyclone should bend back toward west\r\nas it is advected along in the easterly trade winds.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is based upon the tightly clustered members of\r\nthe multi-model ensemble (TVCN) and is somewhat south of the track\r\nfrom the previous advisory at 12 and 24 hours because of the\r\nunexpected continuation of westward motion.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 15.4N 132.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 15.8N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 16.6N 135.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 17.4N 137.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 18.2N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0000Z 18.8N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-08-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016\r\n\r\nIvette is feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of southwesterly vertical\r\nshear and dry air entrainment, as conventional and microwave\r\nsatellite imagery indicate that the low-level center is now\r\ndisplaced to the southwest of the convection.  The initial\r\nintensity remains 50 kt in agreement with various subjective and\r\nobjective satellite intensity estimates.  However, this could be a\r\nlittle generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 280/9, as the storm continues to be steered by\r\nthe subtropical ridge to its north.  Ivette should turn toward the\r\nwest-northwestward shortly, as it nears the western periphery of the\r\nridge.  However, in about three days, the tropical cyclone should\r\nturn westward as the weakening system is steered by the low-level\r\neasterly trade winds.  The new track forecast is little changed from\r\nthe previous forecast and lies near the TVCN consensus model.\r\n\r\nAlthough Ivette is expected to remain over 26C-28C sea surface\r\ntemperatures during the forecast period, the combination of\r\nincreasing shear and abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery\r\nare expected to cause the storm to weaken.  The intensity forecast\r\nno longer shows any intensification.  Instead, the initial\r\nintensity is maintained through 24 hours in general agreement with\r\nthe intensity guidance, followed by a slow weakening trend.  The\r\ndynamical models are in good agreement that Ivette will weaken to a\r\ntrough by 120 hours, so the forecast calls for the cyclone to\r\ndissipate by that time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 15.8N 133.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 16.2N 135.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 16.9N 136.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 17.7N 138.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 18.3N 139.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  09/0600Z 18.5N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  10/0600Z 18.0N 147.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-08-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016\r\n\r\nWest-southwesterly shear is really taking a toll on Ivette.  SHIPS\r\nguidance is indicating that the shear has increased to near 15 kt,\r\nand a recent SSMI overpass supports this by showing the low-level\r\ncenter well removed from the deep convection.  Satellite intensity\r\nestimates have generally decreased, and the initial intensity is\r\nlowered to 45 kt based on Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0 from TAFB and\r\nSAB.  Although Ivette is beginning to move over very warm waters\r\nnear 29C, the vertical shear is forecast to increase further during\r\nthe next couple of days.  Therefore, gradual weakening is\r\nanticipated, and Ivette is likely to lose organized convection and\r\nbecome a remnant low in about 3 days.  The remnant low is then\r\nexpected to degenerate to a trough by day 5.  With the exception of\r\nthe GFDL, all of the intensity models show weakening, and the NHC\r\nintensity forecast has been lowered a bit compared to the previous\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nIvette has turned west-northwestward with an initial motion of\r\n285/9 kt.  A mid-level low located west of Ivette near 17N142W and\r\na subtropical ridge along 26N should cause the cyclone to continue\r\nmoving west-northwestward as long as it's maintaining deep\r\nconvection.  Once the convection vanishes, the shallow remnant low\r\nis expected to turn westward in the low-level trades.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus and is a\r\nlittle faster than the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 16.1N 134.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 16.6N 135.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 17.3N 137.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 18.1N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1200Z 18.4N 141.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1200Z 18.5N 144.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1200Z 18.0N 148.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-08-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery shows that Ivette's center is located\r\nnear the western edge of the deep convection due to 15 kt of\r\nwest-southwesterly shear.  There has been little change in the\r\nstructure of the cyclone, and Dvorak estimates remain 3.0 from TAFB\r\nand SAB.  Therefore, the initial intensity remains 45 kt.  Vertical\r\nshear is expected to increase to over 20 kt in about 24 hours,\r\nlasting through the end of the forecast period.  Weakening is\r\nforecast, and the global models suggest that Ivette could lose\r\norganized deep convection in 48-72 hours and open up into a trough\r\nby 96 hours.  The NHC forecast is therefore updated to show Ivette\r\nas a remnant low on day 3 and dissipated on day 4.\r\n\r\nIvette is moving west-northwestward, or 285/10 kt.  This heading\r\nshould continue for the next 36 hours while Ivette moves between a\r\nmid-level low to its west and the subtropical ridge to its north.\r\nAfter that time, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn\r\nwestward, steered by lower-level trade winds.  The NHC track\r\nforecast has been nudged northward from the previous forecast\r\nbetween 24-72 hours and is very close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 16.3N 135.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 17.6N 138.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 18.3N 140.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  08/1800Z 18.6N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  09/1800Z 18.4N 145.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-08-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 06 2016\r\n\r\nVisible and infrared satellite imagery indicate that all of Ivette's\r\ndeep convection has been sheared away by moderate-to-strong\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear, leaving the low-level circulation\r\ncenter fully exposed more than 80 n mi southwest of any convection.\r\nSatellite intensity estimate from TAFB and SAB have decreased as a\r\nresult, and the latest UW-CIMSS intensity estimate is T2.7/39 kt.\r\nAllowing for some vortex spin down since the previous advisory\r\nintensity of 45 kt, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt\r\nfor this advisory.\r\n\r\nIvette has continued to move west-northwestward, or 290/10 kt.  This\r\ngeneral motion should continue for the next 36 hours or so while the\r\ncyclone moves toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge around\r\n139W-140W longitude. After that time, however, Ivette is expected to\r\nbe a vertically shallow remnant low pressure system that will be\r\nsteered westward and then west-southwestward by the low-level\r\ntradewind flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an\r\nextension of the previous advisory track and lies a little south of\r\nthe multi-model consensus TVCN due to more rapid weakening than\r\npreviously expected.\r\n\r\nIvette still has a very robust low-level circulation and is moving\r\nover near-28C SSTs, so redevelopment of deep convection seems likely\r\ntonight after 0600Z during the convective maximum period, which\r\nshould allow the cyclone to retain tropical storm status. However,\r\nby 24 hours and beyond, strong southwesterly shear of 25 kt or more,\r\nalong with considerably drier mid-level air and SSTs of around 26C,\r\nshould cause any remaining convection to dissipate. As a result,\r\nIvette is forecast to become a remnant low pressure system by 36\r\nhours, with dissipation expected by 96 hours, if not sooner. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the SHIPS and\r\nLGEM intensity model solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 16.7N 136.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 17.2N 137.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 17.9N 139.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1200Z 18.4N 140.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0000Z 18.5N 142.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/0000Z 17.9N 146.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nConvection has redeveloped on the northern side of Ivette, although\r\nthe center remains partially exposed.  An ASCAT-A pass at 6Z\r\nrevealed maximum winds of 35-40 kt, and since thunderstorm activity\r\nhas increased markedly since that time, the initial wind speed is\r\nkept at 40 kt.  Ivette is forecast to gradually spin down over the\r\nnext few days due to cooling waters, strong shear and entrainment of\r\ndry air aloft.  A strong surface high over the central Pacific\r\nshould cause an enhanced gradient on the northern side of Ivette,\r\nsimilar to Howard's synoptic situation last week.  Thus, Ivette will\r\nprobably have an extended weakening phase, and the official forecast\r\nreflects this situation, ending up a little higher than the previous\r\nadvisory at day 2 and 3.  The global models continue to show the\r\nsystem opening up into a trough by day 4.\r\n\r\nThe storm remains on track and is moving 290/10 kt.  Ivette should\r\ngradually turn westward and west-southwestward over the next few\r\ndays as it becomes a shallow remnant low.  No significant changes\r\nwere made to the previous forecast, and the new NHC track\r\nprediction continues to be positioned only a small distance south\r\nof the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 16.9N 137.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 17.4N 138.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 18.0N 140.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 18.4N 141.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 18.4N 143.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 17.5N 148.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nIvette generated a new burst of deep convection around the time of\r\nthe last advisory, and that burst has been persisting. However,\r\nsatellite data show that the center remains partially exposed to\r\nthe southwest of this cloud mass due to strong southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear.  An overnight ASCAT pass showed at least 35-kt\r\nwinds, and the initial intensity estimate is held at 40 kt since the\r\ncloud pattern is as organized or perhaps slightly better than 6\r\nhours ago.\r\n\r\nThe future for Ivette looks bleak.  The cyclone is forecast to\r\nencounter even stronger southwesterly shear in the next few days,\r\nalong with increasingly drier air and marginal sea surface\r\ntemperatures.  These factors suggest that Ivette's time as a\r\ntropical cyclone would likely come to a close sooner rather than\r\nlater, and the official forecast calls for remnant low status in 36\r\nhours in agreement with the global models.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is identical to the previous one and is in agreement with\r\nthe bulk of the intensity guidance, with dissipation shown in 2\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nIvette has been maintaining a west-northwestward motion of 290/10.\r\nThis general motion should continue today as the cyclone is steered\r\nby the flow on the south side of a subtropical ridge.  A westward\r\nand west-southwestward change in the cyclone's heading is likely\r\nonce Ivette becomes a shallower cyclone in about 24 hours.  The new\r\nforecast track is hardly changed from the previous one, and is near\r\nthe multi-model conensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 17.2N 138.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 17.7N 139.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 18.3N 141.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 18.5N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 18.3N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/1200Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ivette","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe burst of deep convection from earlier has begun to diminish,\r\nleaving Ivette's low-level center exposed.  A Dvorak satellite\r\nclassification of T2.5 is used to lower the initial intensity\r\nestimate to 35 kt on this advisory. Ivette is living on borrowed\r\ntime, according to the global models.  Although another diurnal\r\nburst of convection is possible again tonight, even greater\r\nsouthwesterly shear, combined with an increasingly drier and\r\nmore stable air, should soon contribute to Ivette's demise. The\r\nofficial NHC forecast shows the cyclone slowly weakening during the\r\nnext day or so and becoming a remnant low in 36 hours. Dissipation\r\nis forecast in about 2 days.\r\n\r\nIvette continues on a west-northwestward track or 290/09.  This\r\ngeneral motion is forecast to continue for another 12 hours or so.\r\nHowever, a westward and then west-southwestward change in the\r\ncyclone's heading is likely after that time when Ivette becomes a\r\nshallower cyclone.  The new NHC forecast track is about the same as\r\nthe previous one and is very near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 17.3N 139.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 17.9N 140.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 18.4N 141.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 18.3N 143.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 18.1N 145.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Ivette","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP102016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION IVETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe deep convection that was near the center of Ivette earlier in\r\nthe day has been sheared away, with the closest area of\r\nthunderstorms about 80 n mi northeast of the center.  This is\r\nthe result of 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear.  A pair of ASCAT\r\npasses from several hours ago showed maximum winds near 35 kt in\r\nthe northern portion of the circulation.  Assuming some spin down\r\nsince that time, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making\r\nIvette a tropical depression.  This intensity estimate is also in\r\nagreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.\r\nAlthough some deep convection could return near the center,\r\ncontinued strong southwesterly shear and dry air should limit the\r\norganization of this activity and cause weakening. Ivette is\r\nexpected to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and dissipate to\r\nthe east of the Hawaiian Islands in 2 to 3 days.\r\n\r\nThe shallow cyclone has turned westward in the low-level flow.  A\r\ngeneral westward motion at about 10 kt is expected until the\r\ncyclone dissipates.  The NHC official track forecast lies on the\r\nsouthern edge of the guidance, and is adjusted to the south of the\r\nprevious prediction.\r\n\r\nThe next advisory on Ivette will be issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center in Honolulu, Hawaii.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 17.2N 139.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 17.6N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 17.8N 142.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 17.7N 144.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.4N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n400 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe low pressure area near the southwestern coast of Mexico has\r\nbecome better defined overnight, and there is sufficient convective\r\norganization to classify the system as a tropical depression.\r\nAlthough the convection near the center has recently decreased,\r\nthere are several curved bands around the outer portion of the\r\ncirculation.  Recent land-based observations indicate that brisk\r\nsoutheasterly winds are occurring along the immediate coast of\r\nMexico, and ship H9LA reported a minimum pressure of 1004.9 mb and\r\n31 kt southerly winds early in the evening.  Based on these data,\r\nthe initial wind speed is estimated to be 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe forecast track of the depression takes it over very warm water\r\nduring the next couple of days, but moderate easterly shear and\r\ninteraction with the mountainous terrain of southwestern Mexico\r\nshould mean only slight strengthening today.  Additional modest\r\nintensification is expected tonight and Monday, before the system\r\nnears the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula in\r\nabout 48 hours.  After that time, interaction with land and a more\r\nstable airmass should cause weakening, and the cyclone is forecast\r\nto dissipate near or over the central Baja California peninsula in\r\n4 to 5 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement\r\nwith the SHIPS guidance, which is a little above the dynamical\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nSince the tropical cyclone is still in its formative stage, the\r\ninitial motion estimate is a highly uncertain 290/9 kt.  The\r\ndepression is forecast to turn northwesterly by late Sunday as it\r\nmoves around the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge\r\ncentered over the south-central United States.  In 3 to 4 days, a\r\ndeepening mid-level trough off the west coast of the United States\r\nshould cause the cyclone to turn north-northwestward or northward.\r\nThe track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC forecast lies\r\nnear the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 18.0N 104.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 19.0N 105.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 20.3N 107.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  08/1800Z 21.3N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/0600Z 22.4N 110.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/0600Z 24.6N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/0600Z 27.0N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eleven-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not become any better\r\norganized since earlier today.  There is little evidence of banding\r\nfeatures at this time, although upper-level outflow is fairly well\r\ndefined over the northern semicircle of the cyclone.  The intensity\r\nis held at 30 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB\r\nas well as the lack of any surface observations of tropical-storm-\r\nforce winds.  Aside from some land interaction with southwestern\r\nMexico today, the cyclone will move over warm waters and in a low\r\nshear environment, which should allow for strengthening.  However,\r\nsince the system is currently broad and poorly organized, only\r\ngradual intensification is anticipated.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is the same as the previous one and very close to the\r\nlatest SHIPS guidance.\r\n\r\nSince the center is not yet well-defined, there is significant\r\nuncertainty in the initial motion, which is estimated to be 300/9\r\nkt.  The depression is expected to move around the southwestern\r\nperiphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system for the next\r\nday or two, and then turn toward the right ahead of a trough near\r\nsouthern California.  The official track forecast is similar to\r\nthat from the last advisory and in close agreement with the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 18.7N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 19.5N 106.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1200Z 20.7N 108.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0000Z 21.7N 109.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1200Z 22.8N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1200Z 25.2N 112.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1200Z 27.5N 113.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n300 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nJavier has not become better organized during the day, and the\r\nassociated deep convection is ragged-looking and not very\r\nextensive.  Based on the earlier surface wind report from\r\nManzanillo, the current intensity is held at 40 kt.  The storm is\r\nexperiencing some easterly shear, but gradual intensification while\r\nJavier passes over the warm waters to the south of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula seems likely.  The official intensity forecast\r\nagain follows the SHIPS model guidance.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone accelerated somewhat today, and the initial motion\r\nestimate is 300/12 kt.  Javier is moving along the southwestern\r\nperiphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas.  In the\r\nnext couple of days, the system should gradually turn toward the\r\nright as a trough near California weakens the ridge.  The GFS and\r\nECMWF global models have shifted to the left of their previous\r\nforecasts, so the official forecast is also shifted in that\r\ndirection.  The official forecast track lies between the GFS/ECMWF\r\nsolutions and the latest HWRF model run.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 19.5N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 20.4N 108.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  08/1800Z 21.4N 109.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  09/0600Z 22.2N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  09/1800Z 23.2N 111.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  10/1800Z 25.6N 112.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  11/1800Z 28.0N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n900 PM MDT SUN AUG 07 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough cloud tops have warmed some since the previous advisory,\r\nthe overall convective cloud pattern of the cyclone has improved and\r\npassive microwave imagery indicate that the internal structure has\r\nalso improved. The intensity has been increased to 45 kt based on\r\nconsensus T3.0/45 kt satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB, and a\r\nT3.2/49 kt objective estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nMicrowave fixes indicate that the initial motion estimate is now\r\n310/11 kt.  Javier is forecast to move along the southwestern\r\nperiphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Texas, with the\r\ncyclone passing very near the west coast of the Baja California\r\npeninsula in 24-72 hours. The NHC model guidance is in good\r\nagreement on this track scenario, and the official forecast track\r\nclosely follows the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nA 0121Z SSMI/S image indicated that Javier appears to be developing\r\na small mid-level eye feature. Given the compact inner-core\r\nstructure of the cyclone, along with low shear of 5-8 kt and SSTs\r\nof at least 29C along the forecast track, at least steady\r\nstrengthening seems reasonable for the next 36 hours or so. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is slightly above the available guidance\r\nand closely follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0300Z 20.6N 107.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1200Z 21.4N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0000Z 22.2N 109.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1200Z 23.1N 110.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0000Z 24.5N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  11/0000Z 26.5N 113.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  12/0000Z 28.9N 114.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n300 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since the\r\nprevious advisory.  The convective banding structure that was noted\r\nduring the evening has become less apparent, but a new burst of\r\nconvection has recently developed near the estimated center.  A\r\ncouple of ASCAT overpasses between 0400 and 0500 UTC indicated that\r\nthe center is located slightly northeast of the previous\r\nestimates, and it may be near the northeastern portion of the new\r\nconvective mass, due to some northeasterly shear.  Javier's initial\r\nwind speed remains 45 kt for this advisory, which is based on\r\nDvorak classifications of T3.0 and the ASCAT data which showed winds\r\nto around 40 kt.\r\n\r\nJavier will be traversing very warm water and the shear is expected\r\nto decrease today, which should allow for strengthening during the\r\nnext 12 to 24 hours.  The intensity guidance is slightly lower\r\nthan before, so the NHC forecast shows a little less strengthening\r\nthan earlier.  Although it is not explicitly indicated in the NHC\r\nforecast, Javier could become a hurricane when it is near the\r\nsouthern portion of the Baja California peninsula.  In a day or\r\nso, decreasing SSTs, land interaction, and a more stable\r\nairmass are expected to cause weakening.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 11 kt.  The\r\ntrack forecast philosophy remains the same from the previous\r\nadvisory.  Javier should continue moving northwestward with some\r\nreduction in forward speed while it is steered around the\r\nsouthwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge over Texas.  The track\r\nguidance is in generally good agreement, and the new NHC forecast is\r\nan update of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/0900Z 21.5N 108.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  08/1800Z 22.2N 109.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/0600Z 23.1N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  09/1800Z 24.2N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/0600Z 25.4N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/0600Z 27.2N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n900 AM MDT MON AUG 08 2016\r\n\r\nJavier has not become better organized since yesterday evening,\r\nwith a significant decrease in the associated deep convection\r\naside from a small burst near or north of the estimated center.\r\nDvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain at T3.0\r\ncorresponding to 45 kt, and this will be the advisory intensity.\r\nSince the vertical shear is forecast to remain very low for the\r\nnext couple of days, some strengthening is still forecast while\r\nJavier moves near the Baja California peninsula.  The official\r\nintensity forecast for the next 24 to 36 hours is above the\r\nintensity guidance, but close to the latest SHIPS prediction.\r\nWithin the next couple of days, cooling SSTs, land interaction, and\r\nan increasingly stable air mass are likely to induce weakening.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center is difficult to locate, it is estimated that\r\nthe northwestward motion, 310/9 kt, continues.  Javier is forecast\r\nto continue moving around the western periphery of a mid-level\r\nanticyclone centered over Texas.  The official forecast is slightly\r\nto the left of the previous one but on the eastern side of the\r\ntrack guidance suite.\r\n\r\nAlthough the NHC forecast does not show Javier becoming a hurricane,\r\nit is prudent to keep the hurricane warning in place for the\r\nsouthern Baja California peninsula, at least until an Air Force\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft investigates the system this afternoon.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  08/1500Z 22.0N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0000Z 22.5N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1200Z 23.4N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0000Z 24.4N 111.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1200Z 25.7N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1200Z 27.5N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n300 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016\r\n \r\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently investigated Javier\r\non a long mission from base.  They measured peak SFMR-observed\r\nsurface winds of 54 kt and maximum 850 mb flight-level winds of 52\r\nkt.  On the basis of these data, the intensity is set at 55 kt.\r\nSome slight additional strengthening is possible tonight while the\r\ncenter pass near or over the extreme southern Baja California\r\npeninsula.  Later the period, cooler SSTs, interaction with land,\r\nand an increasingly stable air mass should cause gradual weakening.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is a little above the latest model\r\nconsensus.\r\n \r\nCenter fixes from the aircraft give an initial motion estimate of\r\n315/8.  Javier is expected to continue to move around the western\r\nperiphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered near Texas.  The\r\nofficial track forecast lies close to the dynamical model\r\nconsensus, TVCN.\r\n \r\nObservations from the aircraft indicate that Javier is a small\r\ntropical cyclone.  Although some slight expansion of the wind field\r\nmay occur over the next day or so, the radius of\r\ntropical-storm-force winds is not expected to be much more than 60\r\nn mi.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  08/2100Z 22.5N 109.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  09/0600Z 23.3N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  10/0600Z 25.2N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  10/1800Z 26.2N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  11/1800Z 27.5N 114.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n900 PM MDT MON AUG 08 2016\r\n\r\nA NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Javier at 700 mb this\r\nevening, as part of a research mission, measured peak SFMR-observed\r\nsurface winds of 46 kt. A dropsonde measured a central pressure of\r\n1003 mb, but with a 45-kt surface wind, which equates to a pressure\r\nof about 999 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been lowered\r\nslightly to 50 kt. The reconnaissance wind data also indicate that\r\nJavier remains a compact tropical cyclone, and that the\r\nflight-level center is tilted southwest of the surface center.\r\n\r\nSmoothing through the various wobbles in the fixes yields an initial\r\nmotion estimate of 315/04 kt.  Javier is forecast to continue\r\nmoving northwestward around the western periphery of a weakening\r\nmid-level ridge located over the south-central United States and\r\nnorthern Mexico. The weak steering flow could result in some\r\nerratic motion as Javier moves closer to southern Baja California\r\nand interacts with the mountainous terrain. The new NHC track is\r\nessentially just and update of the previous advisory track, which\r\ntakes Javier up the west side of the Baja California peninsula, and\r\nlies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nAircraft flight-level data also revealed that dry mid-level air had\r\npenetrated into the inner-core region, and this was probably the\r\nmain reason for the erosion of the deep convection in the\r\nnortheastern semicircle since the previous advisory. Although some\r\nmodest convection has recently developed in the southeastern\r\nquadrant, it is less likely now that Javier will be able to sustain\r\nany significant intensification due to the aforementioned dry\r\nmid-level air and the small cyclone interacting with land through\r\nmost of the forecast period. The official intensity forecast closely\r\nfollows the consensus intensity model, IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0300Z 22.5N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1200Z 23.2N 110.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0000Z 24.2N 111.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1200Z 25.1N 112.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  11/0000Z 26.0N 113.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  12/0000Z 27.3N 113.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Javier","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n300 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Javier has dissipated overnight and\r\nthe cyclone now consists of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.\r\nIt has been very difficult to locate the center overnight, but\r\nsatellite and surface observations suggest that it is located near\r\nor over the southern Baja California peninsula.  Dvorak satellite\r\nintensity estimates have decreased and a blend of the various T-\r\nand CI-numbers yield an initial intensity of 40 kt.  An automated\r\nMexican weather observing site near Cabo Pulmo on the southeastern\r\nportion of Baja California has reported tropical storm force wind\r\ngusts during the past few hours.\r\n\r\nThe small tropical cyclone appears to have succumb to the\r\neffects of land interaction, northeasterly shear, and dry mid-level\r\nair sooner than anticipated.  As a result, the NHC intensity\r\nforecast has been adjusted lower than the previous advisory and now\r\ncalls for additional weakening as Javier interacts with land and\r\nmoves into a more stable environment.  Javier is forecast to weaken\r\nto a tropical depression later today, and become a remnant low on\r\nWednesday, however this could occur much earlier if organized\r\ndeep convection does not redevelop soon.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/6 kt.  Javier is forecast to\r\ncontinue moving northwestward during the next day or so around the\r\nsouthwestern portion of a mid-level ridge over the south-central\r\nUnited States.  The track guidance is in relatively good agreement\r\nand the NHC forecast is near the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/0900Z 23.3N 110.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  09/1800Z 24.3N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/0600Z 25.6N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  10/1800Z 26.6N 113.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  11/0600Z 27.2N 113.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  12/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Javier","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n900 AM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016\r\n\r\nThe only areas of deep convection associated with Javier are some\r\nsmall patches of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  The cyclone is embedded within an air mass\r\nthat is forecast to become drier and more stable with time.\r\nTherefore the system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low\r\nwithin 24 hours, or sooner. The low is expected to dissipate over\r\nthe central Baja California peninsula later in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe center has become less defined but is believed to be located\r\njust offshore between Cabo San Lucas and Cabo San Lazaro, and the\r\ninitial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/6.  Over the next\r\ncouple of days, Javier or its remnant low should continue to move\r\naround the western periphery of a mid-level high pressure system.\r\nThe official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model\r\nconsensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/1500Z 23.8N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0000Z 24.8N 112.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1200Z 26.1N 113.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/0000Z 27.0N 113.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  11/1200Z 28.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Javier","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP112016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112016\r\n300 PM MDT TUE AUG 09 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images show that the system lacks sufficient organized\r\ndeep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone.  Therefore\r\nthe cyclone is now being designated as a post-tropical remnant low,\r\nand this will be the last advisory on Javier.  Surface observations\r\nand ASCAT scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds are\r\nnear 25 kt.  The low should continue to gradually spin down, and it\r\nis likely to dissipate by Thursday.\r\n\r\nThe center has become less well defined, but the best estimate of\r\ninitial motion is around 310/9 kt.  The low is likely to continue\r\nmoving around the western periphery of a subtropical high pressure\r\nsystem until dissipation.  The official track forecast is close to\r\nthe model consensus.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z 24.6N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  10/0600Z 25.3N 112.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 26.2N 113.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 27.0N 114.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n300 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated\r\nwith the low pressure system located 350 miles south of the\r\nsouthern tip of the Baja Peninsula has become sufficiently well\r\norganized to classify this system as a tropical depression.\r\nTherefore, advisories are being initiated at this time.  The\r\ndepression should remain in a marginally conducive thermodynamic\r\nenvironment with relatively low vertical shear and over warm oceanic\r\nwaters for the next 36-48 hours.  Therefore, modest strengthening is\r\nforecast.  Through the remainder of the period, the cyclone should\r\nbe moving into a more stable and drier air mass. Subsequently, a\r\ngradual weakening trend is expected to begin in about 48 hours and\r\nthe cyclone should degenerate into a remnant low in 3 days or so.\r\nThe official intensity forecast is based on the IVCN and sides with\r\nthe trend implied by the GFS global and ensemble mean, the HWRF and\r\nthe COAMPS-TC which all show the system dissipating in 5 days, or\r\nless.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 315/6 kt, within the\r\nsoutheasterly mid-level flow on the periphery of a subtropical ridge\r\noriginating over northern Mexico.  The depression should continue on\r\na northwestward to north-northwestward motion through the 48 hour\r\nperiod.  After that time, the cyclone is forecast to gradually turn\r\nnorthward in response to a growing weakness in the ridge to the\r\nnorth, and then turn slowly back toward the northwest in response to\r\nthe low-level tradewind flow as a shallow, remnant low.  It's worth\r\nnoting that the GFS shows the cyclone weakening much more quickly\r\nthan the ECMWF, and meandering south of the southern tip the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula before dissipating over water.  The NHC\r\nforecast sides with the multi-model TVCN, and is nudged a bit toward\r\nthe left of it, near an average of the ECMWF and GFS global models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 17.8N 110.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 18.5N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 19.4N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 20.1N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 20.6N 111.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 21.2N 111.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 21.7N 112.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/1800Z 23.5N 114.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n900 PM MDT THU AUG 18 2016\r\n\r\nThe tropical depression has changed little in organization since\r\nthis afternoon.  The center, which has been very difficult to\r\nlocate in conventional satellite pictures, appears to be located\r\nnear the northeastern edge of a pulsating area of deep convection.\r\nSatellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS are all\r\nbelow tropical storm strength, so the system will remain a 30-kt\r\ndepression for this advisory.  The cyclone is currently being\r\naffected by moderate northeasterly shear, but the shear is\r\npredicted to subside during the next day or so while the system\r\nmoves over warm water.  This should allow for a gradual increase\r\nin winds during the next 24 hours.  After that time, the cyclone\r\nis expected to encounter less favorable thermodynamic conditions,\r\nwhich should initiate weakening.  The updated NHC forecast shows a\r\nslightly higher peak intensity in 24 hours, but is otherwise\r\nunchanged from the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nThe somewhat uncertain initial motion is still estimated to be\r\n315/6 kt.  The cyclone should move northwestward to north-\r\nnorthwestward around the western portion of a mid- to upper-level\r\nridge over northwestern Mexico during the next day or two. However,\r\nthere is more uncertainty than normal since there is a large spread\r\nin the track guidance.  The GFS keeps the depression moving\r\ngenerally north-northwestward while the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and GFS\r\nensemble mean show the system turning west-northwestward when it\r\nweakens in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC track has been adjusted slightly\r\nwestward and is now located between the GFS ensemble mean and the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 17.8N 110.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 18.6N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 20.7N 111.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 21.6N 112.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 22.3N 113.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/0000Z 23.3N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n300 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nThe center continues to be on the edge or very near a large area of\r\ndeveloping convection. Dvorak T-number estimates remain below\r\ntropical storm strength, but a recent ASCAT-B pass around 0500 UTC\r\nshowed a few wind vectors of 35 kt in the southeastern quadrant. On\r\nthis basis, the depression has been upgraded to tropical storm\r\nstatus. Kay continues to be affected by northeasterly shear, but\r\nconditions are still favorable for slight strengthening during the\r\nnext 24 hours before the cyclone encounters a more stable\r\nenvironment. After that time, gradual weakening should begin.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is 315/06. Kay is embedded\r\nwithin light steering currents around a weak ridge over Mexico, and\r\nthis pattern is forecast to change little. Most of the track models\r\nkeep Kay moving northwestward with a gradual bend to the west as the\r\ncyclones weakens. The exception is the GFS which brings a very weak\r\nsystem close to Baja California. This GFS solution does not appear\r\nto be realistic at this time. The NHC forecast follows the bulk of\r\nthe guidance, shifting a little bit to the left from the previous\r\nNHC forecast and following the multimodel consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 18.4N 110.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 19.1N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 20.0N 111.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 20.6N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 21.0N 112.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 21.7N 113.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 22.5N 114.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/0600Z 23.0N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n900 AM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nShortwave infrared imagery and a 0850 UTC AMSR2 microwave image\r\nshow that Kay's center of circulation continues to be sheared\r\nto the northeast of the deep convection.  The coldest cloud tops\r\nare confined to a curved band wrapping in toward the center from the\r\nsouthern half of the system.  The initial intensity remains at 35\r\nkt and is based on a consensus of Final-T number (T2.5) satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Global models and the SHIPS\r\nguidance indicate that the shear should relax within the next 24\r\nhours.  Therefore, some strengthening is expected through day 2.\r\nFor the remaining portion of the forecast, Kay should gradually\r\nweaken as it moves into a more stable thermodynamic environment and\r\nover cooler sea surface temperatures of around 25C.  The large-scale\r\nmodels are also showing increasing upper-level easterlies at that\r\ntime.  The NHC intensity forecast is based on the IVCN consensus and\r\nreflects Kay degenerating into a remnant low in 96 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a little uncertain, but based on the\r\nearlier microwave images and surface observations from Socorro\r\nIsland, Kay appears to be moving at 320/7 kt.  The Socorro Island\r\nobservations during the past few hours indicate that the center of\r\nKay is passing very close to the island.  The cyclone should move\r\nnorthwestward around the western portion of a mid- to upper-level\r\ntropospheric ridge over northwestern Mexico during the next couple\r\nof days.  The GFS and its ensemble mean have shifted considerably\r\ntoward the left, closer to the other global and regional guidance,\r\nand consequently, have reduced the earlier noted large model spread.\r\nBeyond day 3, Kay is forecast to turn slowly toward the\r\nwest-northwest in response to the low-level tradewind flow steering\r\nthe shallow remnant low.  The official forecast is close to the TVCN\r\nconsensus and is slightly faster than the previous advisory beyond\r\nthe 48 hour period due primarily to the significant shift in the\r\nGFS.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 19.1N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 19.7N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 20.5N 112.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 21.0N 113.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 21.6N 113.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 22.2N 114.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 23.0N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1200Z 23.7N 118.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n300 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nThis afternoon's satellite presentation shows that Kay's cloud\r\npattern has continued to become better organized.  It appears\r\nas though the northeasterly shear, which has been hampering\r\ndevelopment, has diminished some.  Growth of the spiral bands with\r\ncolder cloud tops of -75C is the most evident, particularly, in the\r\nwestern and southern portions of the circulation.  There has been\r\nsubsequent improvement of the inner core, indicative of a small,\r\nirregular CDO feature.  The initial intensity is increased to 40 kt\r\nbased on a compromise of the TAFB and SAB satellite intensity\r\nestimates and recent ASCAT-A and ASCAT-B scatterometer overpasses.\r\nSlight strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours.  After\r\nthat time, the cyclone should gradually begin to weaken as it moves\r\ninto a more stable and drier airmass.  Kay is also expected to\r\ntraverse cooler oceanic temperatures and encounter increasing\r\neasterly shear during the latter portions of the period. The\r\nofficial forecast is again based on the IVCN consensus and shows Kay\r\ndecaying into a remnant low in 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe scatterometer overpass was quite accommodating today with the\r\ninitial position and motion. Deep convective bursts over the pass\r\nfew hours have apparently caused the circulation center to reform\r\nabout 40 nmi south of the previous advisory location.  Despite this\r\ncenter relocation, Kay is still moving northwestward or 310/6 kt,\r\nand should maintain this forward motion through the next 36 hours or\r\nso. Afterward, Kay is expected to turn west-northwestward within the\r\neasterly trades on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical\r\nridge. Th NHC forecast is consequently shifted to the left of the\r\nprevious advisory and sides with the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 18.8N 111.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 19.3N 112.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 20.0N 112.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 20.5N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 21.0N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 21.8N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 22.4N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1800Z 22.9N 120.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n900 PM MDT FRI AUG 19 2016\r\n\r\nKay has been able to maintain a large CDO pattern, and the low-level\r\ncirculation has moved farther into the northeastern portion of the\r\nconvective cloud shield. The upper-level outflow has also been\r\nincreasing, except in the northeastern quadrant where it is\r\nrestricted by modest northeasterly vertical wind shear. Satellite\r\nclassifications are a consensus T3.0 from TAFB and SAB, and ADT\r\nvalues have been steadily increasing and are now T3.6/57 kt. Based\r\non these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt.\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite data indicate that Kay is moving northwestward\r\nor 305/6 kt. There is no change to the previous forecast reasoning.\r\nA weak subtropical ridge currently located over northern Mexico and\r\nthe Baja California peninsula is forecast to build westward to the\r\nnorth of Kay during the next 5 days, which will gradually turn the\r\nstorm toward the west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that,\r\na westward motion is expected on days 4 and 5 when Kay will be a\r\nshallow remnant low steered by weak low-level easterly tradewind\r\nflow. The new forecast track is essentially just an update of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to but a little slower than\r\nthe consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe official intensity forecast shows no change in strength for the\r\nnext 36 hours due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air that\r\nwill cause fluctuations in the convective structure that can not be\r\npredicted temporally. With the 850-200-mb vertical wind shear\r\nexpected to remain low at around 5 kt for the next 48 hours, it is\r\nnot out of the question that some slight strengthening could occur.\r\nHowever, long-term or rapid intensification is not expected due to\r\nthe Kay moving into a drier, more stable air mass and over\r\nprogressively cooler SSTs. The official intensity forecast is the\r\nsame as the previous advisory, and remains a little above the IVCN\r\nconsensus model and near an average of the SHIPS/LGEM intensity\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 19.2N 112.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 19.7N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 20.3N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 20.9N 114.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 21.4N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 22.4N 117.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 23.1N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0000Z 23.5N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n300 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave data show that the low-level center continues to be\r\nlocated on the northern edge of a large area of deep convection\r\nindicating that shear is still affecting the cyclone. Dvorak\r\nT-numbers have not changed in this cycle and support an initial\r\nintensity of 45 kt. Although the shear is forecast to decrease, the\r\ncyclone will begin to encounter cooler waters and a more stable\r\nenvironment in about 24 to 36 hours. On this basis, the NHC\r\nforecast calls for no change in intensity during the next day or so\r\nand a gradual weakening thereafter. Kay is expected to become a\r\nremnant low by 96 hours or perhaps sooner.\r\n\r\nKay continues to be embedded within light steering currents, and is\r\nmoving slowly toward the northwest or 310 degrees at 5 kt around the\r\nperiphery of a weak mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico\r\nwestward. This pattern should keep Kay moving on this general track\r\nfor a couple of days. Once the cyclone weakens and becomes a shallow\r\nsystem, it should turn to the west steered by the low-level easterly\r\nflow. This forecast is very similar to the previous one and is\r\nbasically on top of the multimodel consensus TVCN.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 19.5N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 20.0N 113.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 20.6N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 21.2N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 21.7N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 22.5N 118.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 23.2N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0600Z 23.5N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n900 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nA recent GPM overpass indicates that the low-level center of Kay\r\nremains near the northern edge of the main convective area, with a\r\nmid-level eye located to the southwest of the low-level center.\r\nVarious subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are\r\nin the 45-50 kt range.  Based on these, the initial intensity\r\nremains 45 kt, and this could be a little conservative.\r\n\r\nThe GPM data and other microwave imagery show that Kay has moved\r\nmore northward over the past several hours with an initial motion\r\nof 345/5.  This requires a re-location of the center on this\r\nadvisory.  The track guidance is in excellent agreement that a\r\nmid-level ridge to the north of Kay should turn the cyclone toward\r\nthe northwest and west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours.  After\r\nthat time, a more westward motion is likely as Kay becomes a shallow\r\nlow pressure area that is steered by the low-level easterlies.  The\r\nnew forecast track, which lies in the middle of the tightly-\r\nclustered guidance envelope, is parallel to but north of the\r\nprevious track based primarily on the initial position.\r\n\r\nOn the forecast track, Kay will be moving over decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures and reaching the 26C isotherm between 48-72\r\nhours.  Although environmental conditions appear somewhat conducive\r\nbefore the cyclone reaches cold water, none of the intensity\r\nguidance models are forecasting significant intensification.  Thus,\r\nthe NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous\r\none in showing little change in strength for the first 24 hours,\r\nfollowed by gradual weakening.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 20.2N 112.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 20.6N 113.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 21.1N 114.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 21.7N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 22.3N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 23.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 24.0N 122.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1200Z 24.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n300 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Kay has decreased in organization during\r\nthe past several hours, with the main concentration remaining just\r\nsouth of the low-level center.  This decrease might be due to an\r\narea of stratus clouds, indicative of stable air, entraining into\r\nthe western portion of the circulation.  Although the convection\r\nhas diminished, the various satellite intensity estimates have\r\nchanged little since the last advisory, and the initial intensity\r\nremains 45 kt.\r\n\r\nKay has turned northwestward with the estimated motion now 320/5.\r\nThe track guidance is in excellent agreement that a mid-level ridge\r\nto the north of Kay should steer the cyclone toward the northwest\r\nand west-northwest during the next 48-72 hours.  After that time, a\r\nmore westward motion is likely as Kay becomes a shallow low pressure\r\narea that is steered by the low-level easterlies.  The consensus\r\nmodels have shifted a little southward since the previous forecast.\r\nBased on this, the new forecast track is also shifted a little\r\nsouthward and lies between the consensus models and the previous\r\nNHC track.\r\n\r\nOn the forecast track, Kay will be moving over decreasing sea\r\nsurface temperatures and reaching the 26C isotherm in about 48\r\nhours.  The intensity guidance is in good agreement on forecasting\r\ngradual weakening through the forecast period, with several of the\r\nglobal models showing Kay degenerating into a trough at around 120\r\nhours.  The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand calls for a slow weakening, with Fay becoming a depression in\r\nabout 72 hours and a remnant low in about 96 hours.  Overall, the\r\nNHC prediction is in best agreement with the intensity consensus\r\nIVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 20.3N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 20.8N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 21.3N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 21.8N 116.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 22.3N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 23.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 23.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1800Z 23.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n900 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016\r\n\r\nKay's cloud pattern features a somewhat uniform CDO displaced to the\r\nwest of the low-level center as seen in a 0051 UTC GPM overpass.\r\nThis structure is consistent with some easterly shear analyzed by\r\nthe SHIPS model.  The cloud pattern has not changed much during the\r\npast few hours, and the initial intensity remains 45 kt in agreement\r\nwith the latest Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB. While the shear\r\nis forecast to decrease and remain low, Kay will be moving over\r\nprogressively cooler SSTs through the forecast period and cross the\r\n26C isotherm in 36 to 48 hours.  These factors should result in slow\r\nweakening during that time period.  By 72 hours, the mid-level\r\natmosphere becomes quite dry, which in combination with SSTs at or\r\nbelow 24C should result in Kay becoming a remnant low.  The global\r\nmodels show the low dissipating by day 5, and so does the NHC\r\nforecast, which is close to the latest LGEM guidance through 72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nEarlier AMSR-2 and SSMIS passes, along with the above-mentioned GPM\r\npass, were helpful in establishing the initial motion of 305/05.\r\nOverall, the synoptic reasoning remains unchanged, as Kay should\r\nturn west-northwestward in the next 12 to 24 hours under the\r\ninfluence of a mid-level ridge to the north.  This motion is\r\nexpected to continue until late in the period when the shallow\r\nremnant low of Kay turns westward in the low-level trade wind flow.\r\nThe new NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous\r\none and is close to the latest GFS/ECMWF blend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 20.6N 113.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 21.0N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 21.5N 115.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 22.0N 116.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 22.5N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 23.4N 120.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 23.5N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n300 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nKay has weakened some overnight.  The areal coverage of deep\r\nconvection has shrunk a little since the previous advisory, but the\r\ncyclone is maintaining an area of very cold cloud tops near the\r\ncenter of the storm.  A pair of recent ASCAT passes show maximum\r\nwinds in the 30 to 35 kt range, and accordingly, the initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.  This estimate is\r\nnear the low end of the Dvorak classifications.  Although Kay is\r\nexpected to remain in a low wind shear environment during the next\r\nseveral days, decreasing sea surface temperatures and a\r\nprogressively drier air mass along the path of the system should\r\ncause a slow weakening trend beginning Monday. Kay is expected to\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days when it moves over\r\nSSTs below 25 deg C, and dissipate in 4 to 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving northwestward at about 6 kt.  A turn\r\nto the west-northwest is expected later today as a mid-level ridge\r\nbuilds to the north and northeast of Kay.  Once Kay becomes a\r\nremnant low, it should turn westward in the easterly trade wind\r\nflow. Although the models agree on the overall theme, there are\r\nsignificant differences in the projected forward motion of Kay. The\r\nNHC track forecast is not too different from the previous one and\r\nlies near a consensus of the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and HWRF models.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radii were modified based on the aforementioned\r\nASCAT data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 20.9N 114.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 21.3N 114.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 21.9N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 22.3N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 22.7N 118.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 23.6N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 23.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n900 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nKay is holding its own.  A new burst of very cold-topped convection\r\nhas developed since the last advisory, coinciding with the diurnal\r\nconvective maximum.  An earlier microwave pass suggested some tilt\r\nbetween the low- and mid-level centers, indicative that\r\nsoutheasterly shear diagnosed over the storm could be slightly\r\nstronger than indicated in analyses. Satellite classifications are\r\nT2.5/35 kt and T3.0/45 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, and ADT\r\nvalues are around T3.0.  A blend of these data is used to set the\r\ninitial intensity estimate to 40 kt.\r\n\r\nKay is living on borrowed time.  Within 24 hours, the cyclone\r\nshould cross the 26-deg C isotherm and encounter a drier and more\r\nstable air mass.  Weakening should have begun by then if not\r\nbefore, and a rapid decay is expected in 24 to 48 hours when Kay\r\nmoves roughly perpendicular to a steep gradient of lower SSTs and is\r\naffected by increasingly unfavorable thermodynamics conditions.\r\nRemnant low status is indicated in 48 hours, and the system should\r\ndissipate just after 72 hours per the global models. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast maintains the cyclone's current intensity for\r\nthe next 12 hours, but overall is similar to the previous one and\r\nthe bulk of the intensity guidance after that time.\r\n\r\nKay is moving west-northwestward to northwestward, with an initial\r\nmotion estimate of 305/06.  For the next day or so, this general\r\nmotion should continue while the cyclone is steered by the weak flow\r\naround the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern\r\nMexico.  After the cyclone weakens, the shallow system should turn\r\nwestward with some increase in forward speed due to a building\r\nlow-level ridge.  The NHC track forecast is essentially an update of\r\nthe previous one, close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 21.2N 114.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 21.6N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 22.0N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 22.4N 117.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 22.9N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 23.6N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nKay's cloud pattern has become better organized since its overnight\r\nconvective burst.  A small and quasi-circular central dense overcast\r\nhas formed, with the low-level center located nearly in the middle\r\nof this convective mass.  An earlier SSMI/S pass also showed the\r\npresence of a mid-level convective ring, indicative of an increase\r\nin the system's organization.  A 1658 ASCAT pass indicated wind\r\nspeeds around 45 kt, and the initial intensity estimate is set to\r\nthis value.\r\n\r\nToday's intensification episode has likely ended.  However, with the\r\ncyclone still over relatively waters and in a reasonably moist and\r\nlight-shear environment, Kay should maintain its strength for the\r\nnext 12 hours or so.  By 24 hours, the storm should reach\r\nsignificantly cooler waters, and encounter considerably less\r\nconducive atmospheric thermodynamic conditions.  Weakening should\r\ncommence by that time, with a rapid decay likely in 24 to 48 hours.\r\nRemnant low status is still indicated in 2 days, with dissipation\r\nlikely in 3 days in agreement with global models.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is largely the same as the previous one, except in the very\r\nshort term where it is a bit higher due to the cyclone's recent\r\nintensification.\r\n\r\nKay continues moving slowly west-northwestward, with the latest\r\ninitial motion estimate of 300/07.  Kay is being steered on this\r\ncourse by the flow around the southwestern edge of a mid-level\r\nanticyclone extending westward from northern Mexico.  A turn toward\r\nthe west with some increase in forward speed is expected once the\r\ncyclone becomes a shallow vortex to the south of a building\r\nlow-level ridge.  No significant changes have been made to the\r\nforecast track this cycle, with the forecast track close to a blend\r\nof the ECMWF and GFS model solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 21.5N 115.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 21.9N 116.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 22.3N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 22.8N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 23.1N 120.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 21 2016\r\n\r\nKay's cloud pattern has shown little change in organization since\r\nearlier today.  The storm continues to produce very cold-topped\r\ndeep convection over a small area near the center.  The upper-level\r\noutflow remains fairly symmetric, which is consistent with the\r\nlow-shear environment.  The current intensity estimate is kept at\r\n45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Kay is\r\ncurrently over marginally warm SSTs, but should be moving over\r\nprogressively cooler waters during the next day or two.  This,\r\nalong with an increasingly less humid mid-level air mass, should\r\ncause weakening.  The official intensity forecast is very close\r\nto the latest intensity guidance consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe storm continues to move west-northwestward, or around 300/6 kt.\r\nThere are no significant changes to the track forecast or forecast\r\nreasoning.  Kay should continue to move along the southwestern\r\nperiphery of a mid-level ridge for the next day or so.  By Tuesday,\r\nwhen the system should become a shallow cyclone, a turn toward the\r\nwest following the low-level flow is anticipated.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is roughly in the middle of the dynamical guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 21.8N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 22.1N 116.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 22.4N 118.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 22.7N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 23.0N 120.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-08-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with Kay has decreased a little in both\r\nintensity and coverage during the last several hours, but the\r\ncyclone is maintaining a small central dense overcast feature.  The\r\nDvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB are still 3.0/45 kt, and the\r\ninitial wind speed is held at that value for this advisory.  Kay is\r\nnearing the 26-deg-C isotherm, and it will likely cross into those\r\ncooler waters later today.  These unfavorable oceanic conditions\r\ncombined with a drier air mass along the expected track should cause\r\na slow decay during the next couple of days.   Kay will likely\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low pressure area when it moves over water\r\ntemperatures below 25 deg C in 36 to 48 hours.  All of the global\r\nmodels show the system opening into a trough by Wednesday night, and\r\nthe official forecast follows that guidance.\r\n\r\nKay continues to move west-northwestward to northwestward at about\r\n7 kt as it is being steered by a subtropical ridge to its northeast.\r\nA gradual turn to the left is expected during the next couple of\r\ndays as Kay becomes shallower and is steered by the low-level trade\r\nwind flow.  The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one\r\nand lies fairly close to the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 22.2N 116.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 22.5N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 22.8N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 23.2N 120.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 23.5N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-08-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave data and first-light visible imagery indicate that the\r\nconvection associated with Kay has become less organized, with the\r\nlow-level center now lying near the southeast edge of the\r\nconvective area. The initial intensity is decreased to 40 kt based\r\nmainly on a blend of subjective satellite intensity estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB combined with the observed decay of the cloud pattern.\r\n\r\nThe microwave data show that Kay turned westward during the night\r\nwith the initial motion now 280/6.  A low- to mid-level ridge to\r\nthe north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to\r\nwest-northwestward until dissipation.  The new forecast track,\r\nwhich lies near the model consensus, is shifted somewhat to the\r\nsouth of the previous track due to the current position and motion.\r\n\r\nKay will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures, which\r\nshould cause a continued gradual weakening.  The new intensity\r\nforecast calls for the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours\r\nor less, and for it to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36\r\nhours.  The forecast also follows the global models in showing the\r\nsystem weakening to a trough after 72 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 22.0N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 22.2N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 22.5N 119.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 22.9N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 23.2N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-08-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective structure of Kay has continued to degenerate during\r\nthe day, with the deep convection now confined to the northwestern\r\nquadrant.  The initial intensity is decreased to 35 kt based mainly\r\non a blend of subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB combined with the observed decay of the cloud pattern.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 275/7.  A low- to mid-level ridge to\r\nthe north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to\r\nwest-northwestward until dissipation.  The new track guidance\r\nenvelope has shifted a little northward, and the new forecast track\r\nlies a little to the south of the consensus models.\r\n\r\nKay should continue to gradually weaken as it moves over decreasing\r\nsea surface temperatures.  The intensity forecast continues to call\r\nfor the cyclone to become a depression in 24 hours or less, and for\r\nit to subsequently decay to a remnant low by 36 hours.  The forecast\r\nalso follows the global models in showing the system weakening to a\r\ntrough by 72 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 22.0N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 22.1N 119.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 22.5N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 22.8N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 22.9N 123.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kay","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-08-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 22 2016\r\n\r\nMost of the deep convection associated with Kay has dissipated,\r\nlikely due to the continued entrainment of stable air and marginal\r\nSSTs.  However, visible satellite images showed a well-defined\r\nlow cloud circulation with tightly curved bands.  The current\r\nintensity is kept at 35 kt following a Dvorak estimate from TAFB.\r\nKay is crossing the 25.5 deg C SST isotherm and will continue to\r\nmove into a stable and increasingly dry air mass.  These unfavorable\r\nfactors should lead to weakening, and Kay is likely to degenerate\r\ninto a remnant low in 36 hours.  Unless deep convection makes a\r\ncomeback, however, this event may occur sooner than that.\r\n\r\nThe motion remains about the same, or 270/7 kt.  There is basically\r\nno change to the track forecast reasoning.  Kay, or its remnant low,\r\nshould continue to move on a generally westward heading to the south\r\nof a mid-level ridge. The official track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and not too different from the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 22.0N 118.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 22.3N 119.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 22.6N 121.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 22.8N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 22.8N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-08-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe coverage of deep convection has been decreasing during the last\r\nseveral hours, and only a small amount remains to the northwest of\r\nthe estimated center of Kay.  A pair of ASCAT passes from a few\r\nhours ago showed maximum winds near 30 kt, and based on that data\r\nKay has been downgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The\r\ndepression is currently moving over SSTs near 25-deg-C and it is\r\nheaded for even cooler waters during the next couple of days.  These\r\ncool SSTs combined with the continued influence of dry and stable\r\nair should cause Kay to degenerate to a remnant low within the next\r\n24 hours. All of the global models show the remnant low dissipating\r\nin a little more than 2 days, and the official track forecast\r\nfollows that guidance.\r\n\r\nThe center of Kay has been challenging to locate in geostationary\r\nsatellite images, but the ASCAT data and a recent WindSat overpass\r\nindicate that the system has been moving nearly due westward\r\nduring the past 12 to 24 hours.  A continued westward motion in the\r\nlow-level trade wind flow is expected until the system dissipates.\r\nThe NHC track forecast lies on the southern edge of the guidance and\r\nis adjusted a little to the south of the previous prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 22.0N 119.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 22.2N 120.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 22.4N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 22.4N 124.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 22.4N 125.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kay","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-08-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nKay has become a convectionless swirl of low clouds over sea surface\r\ntemperatures of less than 25C.  Unless the convection makes an\r\nunexpected return, the cyclone should degenerate to a remnant low\r\npressure area later today.  All of the global models now show the\r\nremnant low dissipating in less than two days, so the official\r\nforecast follows this scenario.\r\n\r\nKay turned more to the right after the scatterometer overpass\r\nmentioned in the previous advisory, and the initial motion is now\r\n295/7.  A turn back toward the west is likely before the system\r\ndissipates completely.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 22.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 23.1N 121.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 23.3N 123.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 23.3N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Kay","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-08-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP122016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KAY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 23 2016\r\n\r\nKay has been devoid of deep convection for about 12 hours.  Since\r\nthe system is over waters of around 24 deg C and forecast to soon\r\nmove over even cooler waters, deep convection is not expected to\r\nreturn.  On this basis, Kay is being declared a post-tropical\r\ncyclone on this advisory.  Dissipation is forecast by the global\r\nmodels just after 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe post-tropical cyclone is moving a little faster toward the\r\nnorthwest or 310/11.  A turn toward the west-northwest or west is\r\nlikely before the low dissipates tomorrow.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory from the National Hurricane Center on this\r\nsystem.  For additional information on the remnant low please see\r\nHigh Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under\r\nAWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 23.5N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 23.6N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 23.7N 124.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n300 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016\r\n\r\nGeostationary satellite imagery indicates that the area of low\r\npressure located well southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, now has a\r\nwell-defined center and enough convective organization to be\r\nconsidered a tropical cyclone.  The initial intensity is set to 30\r\nkt based on the latest Dvorak Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The\r\nenvironment appears favorable for steady intensification during the\r\nfirst 3 days, as the cyclone is forecast to move over SSTs above\r\n28C but the shear remains 10 kt or higher much of that time.  Ocean\r\ntemperatures cool a little at days 4 and 5 and the mid-level\r\natmosphere dries out a bit, which could result in some slow\r\nweakening.  The NHC forecast is close to the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus through the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 290/12.  The\r\ncyclone will be steered generally west-northwestward for the next\r\n48 hours with a decrease in forward speed along the southwestern\r\nside of a weakening mid-level ridge.  Later in the period, a\r\nwestward acceleration is expected as a mid-level ridge builds to\r\nthe north of the tropical cyclone.  In general the track model\r\nguidance is in good agreement on this scenario, although there is\r\nsome cross-track spread, with the HWRF and ECMWF to the south and\r\nthe COAMPS-TC and especially the GFDL farther north.  The NHC\r\nforecast lies south of the TVCN multi-model consensus and in between\r\nthe GFS and the latest GFS/ECMWF blend.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 15.2N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 15.9N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 16.5N 113.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 17.1N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 17.5N 115.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 18.0N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n900 PM MDT WED AUG 24 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has become a little better\r\norganized during the past several hours with the center of\r\ncirculation located between two curved bands to its north and south.\r\nThe initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory, in agreement\r\nwith a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and\r\nautomated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  The\r\ntropical cyclone is expected to strengthen during the next 3 to 4\r\ndays while it remains over warm water, in a moist environment, and\r\nin moderate wind shear conditions.  Some weakening could occur by\r\nthe end of the forecast period when the system moves over cooler\r\nwaters and into a drier air mass.  The intensity guidance is in\r\nrelatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is close to the\r\nintensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt\r\naway from the coast of Mexico.  A decrease in forward speed is\r\nexpected on Thursday when the cyclone moves closer to a break in\r\nthe subtropical ridge.  The ridge is expected to rebuild to the\r\nnorth of the cyclone this weekend, and that should cause the system\r\nto move westward at a faster pace.  The NHC track forecast is nudged\r\nto the south of the previous one to be in better agreement with the\r\nlatest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.7N 110.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 16.3N 112.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 16.8N 113.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N 115.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.6N 116.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 17.8N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 17.9N 124.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 18.1N 129.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n300 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe cyclone appears to be gradually gaining strength.  Recent\r\nmicrowave images show that the circulation of the system has become\r\nbetter organized with the associated banding features more tightly\r\ncoiled than they were earlier.  In addition, infrared satellite\r\npictures indicate that a central dense overcast feature has formed\r\nwith cloud tops colder than -70 deg C.  The Dvorak classifications\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB are both 2.5/35 kt, and ADT values from CIMSS at\r\nthe University of Wisconsin are a bit higher. Based on these data,\r\nthe initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt, making the cyclone\r\nTropical Storm Lester.\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone is expected to steadily strengthen during the\r\nnext 3 to 4 days while it remains over warm water, in a moist\r\nenvironment, and in moderate wind shear conditions.  By the end of\r\nthe forecast period, slight weakening should commence when Lester\r\nmoves over cooler water and into a more stable air mass.  The\r\nintensity guidance is a little higher this cycle, and the NHC\r\nforecast is nudged upward to be in closer agreement with the\r\nintensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe microwave passes have been helpful in locating the center,\r\nand suggest that Lester is still moving west-northwestward at 10 kt.\r\nA decrease in forward speed is expected to begin later today when\r\nthe cyclone moves closer to a break in the subtropical ridge.  The\r\nridge is expected to rebuild to the north of the storm this weekend,\r\nand that should cause Lester to move westward at a faster pace.\r\nThe NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one, and\r\nit lies close to the consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 16.2N 111.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 16.7N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 17.2N 114.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 17.5N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 17.7N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 17.9N 125.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 18.0N 130.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n900 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Lester continues to gradually become better\r\norganized, with developing convective banding features surrounding\r\na small CDO and expanding upper-level outflow.  Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates from both TAFB and SAB are 45 kt, and that value is used\r\nfor the advisory intensity.  The global models forecast a low-shear\r\nenvironment for Lester over the next several days, and the cyclone\r\nshould remain over SSTs warmer than 27 deg C throughout most of the\r\nforecast period.  Steady strengthening is forecast until late in\r\nperiod when Lester approaches marginal SSTs.  The official forecast\r\nis close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nGeostationary and microwave satellite fixes yield a motion estimate\r\nof about 295/10 kt.  The track forecast reasoning remains about the\r\nsame as in the previous advisory.  Throughout the forecast period,\r\nthe tropical cyclone should remain embedded in the flow on the south\r\nside of a broad mid-tropospheric ridge over the eastern North\r\nPacific.  A gradual turn toward the west, at a slightly faster pace\r\nthan shown in the previous official forecast, is anticipated.  The\r\nNHC track prediction is very close to the latest multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 16.6N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 17.0N 113.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 17.5N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 17.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 17.8N 118.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 17.9N 122.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 18.0N 127.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n300 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Lester has become only slightly better\r\norganized than earlier today.  Taking the mean of Dvorak estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB leads to a current intensity estimate of 50 kt.\r\nAn upper-level cyclonic shear axis just to the northwest of the\r\nstorm is clearly evident in water vapor imagery, and this feature is\r\nsomewhat impeding Lester's outflow to the north.  Overall,\r\nhowever, the atmospheric and oceanic environment should be conducive\r\nfor strengthening with low shear and a sufficiently warm ocean\r\nduring the next several days.  The NHC intensity forecast shows\r\nLester becoming a hurricane within 24 hours, with additional\r\nintensification after that time frame.  Late in the forecast\r\nperiod, marginal SSTs should halt the strengthening process.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is fairly close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe storm is slowing down a bit and the initial motion is about\r\n295/9.  A slight weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nLester is expected to cause some further deceleration during the\r\nnext day or two.  Later in the forecast period, a stronger ridge\r\nshould induce a westward motion at a faster forward speed.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is similar to the previous one and about in\r\nthe middle of the dynamical guidance suite.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 16.9N 113.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 17.3N 114.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 17.7N 115.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 18.0N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 18.0N 118.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 18.0N 123.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 18.0N 128.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 18.0N 133.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n900 PM MDT THU AUG 25 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images reveal that the cloud pattern has not changed very\r\nmuch during the past several hours, and deep convection is not as\r\nstrong as earlier today. Some arc clouds have been moving away from\r\nthe cyclone, suggesting that Lester is not intensifying at this\r\ntime. This is confirmed by the latest Dvorak estimates which\r\nstill lead to an intensity of 50 kt. Nevertheless, Lester's\r\nupper-level outflow is well established and, with low shear and\r\nwarm waters in its future path, strengthening is in order.\r\nThus, Lester is forecast to become a hurricane in a day or so. By\r\nthe end of the forecast period, cooler waters should induce gradual\r\nweakening. The NHC forecast is basically the same as the previous\r\none.\r\n\r\nLester has slowed down a little bit and is now moving toward the\r\nwest or 270 degrees at 5 kt. The cyclone should resume a west-\r\nnorthwest track soon toward a current weakness of the ridge.\r\nHowever, in about 2 days, the ridge should amplify and build\r\nwestward, and this pattern should steer Lester westward through\r\nthe rest of the forecast period. Given that the steering currents\r\nare expected to be very well established, tracks models are\r\nin very good agreement. The NHC forecast follows the multi-model\r\nconsensus and has not deviated very much from the previous official\r\nprediction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 17.0N 113.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.4N 114.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 17.8N 115.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 18.0N 119.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 18.5N 124.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 18.5N 129.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  31/0000Z 18.5N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-08-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n300 AM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nWhile Lester continues to produce a large area of cold cloud tops,\r\nrecent microwave imagery suggests that the storm is being affected\r\nby vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment that is displacing\r\nthe convection mostly to the east and northeast of the center.  A\r\nrecent ASCAT-B overpass indicated 45-50 kt winds about 40 n mi\r\nnortheast of the center, and based on this the initial intensity\r\nremains 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe microwave data show that Lester has moved westward for the\r\npast several hours, with the initial motion now 280/6.  The cyclone\r\nshould turn west-northwestward later today as it moves toward a\r\nweakness in the subtropical ridge.  After 12-24 hours, Lester\r\nshould resume a westward track with an increase in forward speed as\r\nthe ridge strengthens and builds westward.  The track model\r\nguidance is in excellent agreement with this scenario, and the new\r\nforecast track is near the center of the guidance envelope.  The\r\nnew forecast is a little to the south of the previous forecast\r\nbased on the current position and motion.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease over the next\r\n24 hours and remain low for the rest of the forecast period, which\r\nshould allow Lester to again intensify.  The forecast track keeps\r\nthe cyclone over relatively warm water for about 72 hours, so the\r\nintensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during that\r\ntime.  Subsequently, the waters cool a little along the forecast\r\ntrack, and the intensity forecast thus shows some weakening.  The\r\nnew intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, except\r\nslightly weaker during the first 24 hours due to the shear.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 16.9N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 17.1N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 17.3N 116.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 17.4N 118.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 17.4N 120.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 17.5N 126.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 17.5N 131.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  31/0600Z 17.5N 136.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-08-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 AM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nIt appears that northwesterly shear and dry air entrainment is\r\ncontinuing to prevent Lester from strengthening.  The deep\r\nconvection associated with the tropical cyclone continues to burst,\r\nbut there is little evidence of banding features at this time.\r\nSubject Dvorak intensity estimates range from 45 to 55 kt from SAB\r\nand TAFB, and the earlier ASCAT data suggests that the intensity was\r\naround 45 to 50 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 50 kt for\r\nthis advisory.  The shear is expected to decrease very soon, which\r\nfavors some intensification while Lester remains over warm water\r\nduring the next few days.  Nearby dry air could occasionally\r\ninterrupt the intensification process during this time, so only\r\ngradually strengthening is anticipated through 72 hours.  After that\r\ntime, slightly cooler waters and a more stable airmass near the\r\ntrack could cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nLester is moving westward or 280/6.  A strong mid- to upper-level\r\nridge centered well west of the Baja California is expected to\r\nremain intact through the middle of next week.  This ridge should\r\nsteer Lester westward at a little faster forward speed throughout\r\nthe entire forecast period.  The guidance is in very good agreement\r\nwith this scenario, and the new NHC track is essentially an update\r\nof the previous advisory, and lies near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 17.1N 115.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 17.3N 116.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 17.4N 117.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 17.4N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 17.5N 122.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 17.5N 127.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 17.5N 132.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  31/1200Z 17.2N 137.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lester","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nAfter the convection associated with Lester appeared to be rather\r\nshapeless in infrared satellite imagery overnight, visible pictures\r\nindicate that there has been a significant increase in organization\r\ntoday. Although the convective clouds tops are not very cold, a\r\nragged banding eye feature has become apparent within the past\r\ncouple of hours.  As a result, Dvorak T-numbers have risen to 4.0\r\nand 3.5 from TAFB and SAB respectively, and the initial wind speed\r\nhas been increased to 60 kt for this advisory.  The center has\r\npassed about 50 n mi southwest of Clarion Island during the past few\r\nhours, and a weather station on that Island has reported sustained\r\nwinds of 46 kt with a gust to 62 kt.\r\n\r\nLester is forecast to move over warm water and within a low shear\r\nenvironment during the next 2 to 3 days, which should result in\r\nsteady strengthening.  Late in the forecast period, slightly cooler\r\nwaters and less favorable thermodynamic conditions are likely to\r\ninduce some weakening.  The NHC\r\nforecast calls for Lester to become a hurricane tonight, which is\r\nin line with most of the intensity guidance.  Later in the period,\r\nthe NHC wind speed prediction is a little above the intensity\r\nconsensus and SHIPS guidance, but is in good agreement with the\r\nFlorida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\nRecent satellite fixes and ASCAT data indicate that Lester is\r\ncentered a little north of the previous position, and the latest\r\ninitial motion estimate is west-northwestward at about 6 kt.  The\r\nforecast track reasoning remains unchanged as a strong mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge is forecast to remain over the eastern Pacific to\r\nthe west of the Baja California through the middle of next week.\r\nLester is expected to turn almost due westward by Saturday and\r\nremain on that heading during the next 5 days.  The track guidance\r\nremains in excellent agreement, but the more northward initial\r\nposition required a northward adjustment to the NHC track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii have been adjusted outward based on the observations\r\nfrom Clarion Island and recent ASCAT data.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 17.6N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 17.8N 116.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 17.9N 118.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 18.0N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 18.0N 123.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 18.0N 128.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 18.0N 134.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z 18.0N 139.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation has been gradually improving during\r\nthe past few hours, and an eye became evident on the 0200 UTC\r\nnight visible image. A convective ring was also observed on the last\r\nSSMI microwave pass at 2344 UTC.  On this basis, and a Dvorak\r\nestimate from TAFB, the initial wind speed has been increased to 65\r\nkt. Additional intensification is anticipated during the next 2 to 3\r\ndays while the cyclone continues to move over warm waters and\r\nis embedded within light shear.  By the end of the forecast period,\r\nLester will probably begin to weaken due to entrainment of drier\r\nair. The NHC forecast follows very closely the model consensus, and\r\nshows Lester as a hurricane moving into the Central Pacific in about\r\n5 days.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280\r\ndegrees at 8 kt. Lester is embedded within a deep-layer easterly\r\nflow on the south side of an amplifying subtropical ridge extending\r\nfrom the Baja California peninsula westward across the Pacific. This\r\npattern strongly favors the continuation of a westward motion for\r\nthe next five days with some increase in forward speed. The steering\r\nflow is forecast to be so well established that track models are\r\nbasically on top of each other, increasing the confidence in the\r\nforecast. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the tighter-than-\r\nnormal guidance envelope, and does not deviate much from the\r\nprevious NHC prediction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 17.9N 116.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 18.1N 119.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 18.2N 122.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 18.2N 124.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 18.5N 130.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 18.5N 136.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 18.0N 140.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery shows that Lester is continuing to intensity, with\r\nan eye gradually becoming better defined inside a central dense\r\novercast.  Various subjective and objective satellite intensity\r\nestimates are near 75 kt, and that value is the initial intensity\r\nfor this advisory. The hurricane has good cirrus outflow in the\r\nnorthwestern semicircle.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 280/9.  Lester is south of a strong\r\ndeep-layer subtropical ridge, and the dynamical models forecast\r\nthis feature to build westward to the north of the hurricane through\r\nthe forecast period.  The forecast guidance remains tightly\r\nclustered around an almost due west motion with an increase in\r\nforward speed during the next several days. The new forecast track\r\nis an update of the previous track and lies near the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nLester is expected to remain in a low-shear environment during the\r\nforecast period, so the main external factors controlling the\r\nintensity will be sea surface temperatures and possible dry air\r\nentrainment.  During the first 48 hours or so, the hurricane will be\r\nover generally warm water.  Based on current trends, this part of\r\nthe intensity forecast has been raised significantly from the\r\nprevious advisory and calls for a peak intensity of 95 kt. After\r\n48 hours, a combination of slightly cooler water and dry air\r\nentrainment should cause a gradual weakening.  Overall, the new\r\nintensity forecast lies near the upper edge of the guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 17.9N 117.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 18.0N 118.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 18.1N 121.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 18.2N 123.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 18.4N 126.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 18.5N 132.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 18.5N 137.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 18.0N 142.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nLester has been slowly strengthening.  Since the last advisory, the\r\neye has cleared out, warmed and become better defined.  The cyclone\r\nhas also been maintaining a compact and fairly symmetric central\r\ndense overcast but with no prominent banding features.  Satellite\r\nclassifications are T4.5/77 kt and T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB,\r\nrespectively.  A blend of these is used to raise the initial\r\nintensity estimate to 80 kt.\r\n\r\nLester's heading has become more westerly during the past several\r\nhours, and the initial motion estimate is 275/08.  A strong\r\nsubtropical ridge should hold sway to the north of Lester for at\r\nleastthe next 3 days, keeping the cyclone on a nearly due-west\r\ncourse. The track guidance is tightly clustered during this time,\r\nresulting in a high confidence forecast. After 72 hours, the model\r\nspread increases, with the GFS-based solutions on the northern\r\nside of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF to the south.  The\r\ndifferences between the models are related to their handling of a\r\nmid-latitude trough approaching the California coast, which could\r\nweaken the ridge to the north of Lester.  The ECMWF maintains a\r\nstronger ridge and thus depicts a more westerly track, while the\r\nGFS-based guidance shows Lester gaining more latitude as a result of\r\na weaker ridge.  The new NHC track foreast is adjusted slightly\r\nnorth of the previous one from 72-120 hours and is close to a\r\nconsensus of these models.\r\n\r\nGlobal models forecast a nearly uniform easterly flow at all levels\r\nover Lester throughout the forecast period, implying a low-shear\r\nenvironment for the foreseeable future.  Sea surface temperatures\r\nshould gradually decrease along Lester's track but be warm enough to\r\nsupport additional intensification, except perhaps when it\r\nencounters a pocket of somewhat cooler waters between 130W and 140W\r\nin 2 to 4 days.  The main issue governing Lester's intensity is\r\nlikely to be the dryness of the air surrounding it, with both the\r\nGFS and ECMWF models indicating unusually dry air affecting the\r\ncyclone during the period.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for\r\nonly modest intensification the next day or two, during a time when\r\nenvironmental conditions appear most optimal.  After that time, the\r\nextremely dry conditions and more marginal SSTs suggest that a slow\r\nweakening would be the best forecast.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nlower than the previous one throughout the period.  The NHC forecast\r\nis above the multi-model consensus in the short term and generally\r\nnear it after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 18.0N 118.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 18.0N 119.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 18.1N 122.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 18.2N 125.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 18.4N 128.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 18.6N 133.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 18.6N 138.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 18.7N 143.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nLester's cloud pattern has increased some in organization during\r\nthe last several hours.  The cyclone's small central dense\r\novercast has become more symmetric, with a well-defined 20 n mi\r\nwide eye evident in visible satellite imagery.  A broken band is\r\nalso wrapping around the southeastern semicircle of the Lester's\r\ncirculation.  Dvorak T-numbers are a consensus T5.0 from both\r\nsatellite agencies. Based on these data, the initial intensity\r\nestimate is increased to 90 kt.\r\n\r\nLester has been moving a little faster, and the initial motion\r\nestimate is 270/11.  A strong subtropical ridge to the north of\r\nLester should steer the cyclone on a nearly due-west course for at\r\nleast the next few days.  After about 72 hours, there are\r\ndifferences in the strength of the subtropical ridge north of\r\nLester, which are somewhat dependent on the progression of a\r\nmid-latitude trough through the eastern Pacific. There also exists\r\nsome potential for binary interaction with Madeline late in the\r\nforecast period, which could impart a more poleward motion to\r\nLester. The GFS-based guidance continues to lie on the northern side\r\nof the guidance envelope, while the latest ECMWF solution remains on\r\nthe southern edge. The new track forecast is nearly identical to the\r\nprevious one through 48 hours but has been shifted northward in the\r\ndirection of a consensus of the ECMWF, HWRF, GFS, and UKMET models\r\nafter that time.\r\n\r\nA nearly uniform easterly flow over Lester throughout the\r\ntroposphere is forecast for several days, resulting in a low-shear\r\nenvironment. SSTs should be warm enough next day or so for\r\nsome intensification, but the environment around Lester will be\r\ndrying. In about 36 to 48 hours, the hurricane should begin to\r\ntraverse a region of lower SSTs between 130W and 140W.  This will\r\noccur at a time when global models forecast the near-storm\r\nenvironment to become extremely dry. Slow weakening should commence\r\naround this time and throughout the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod. This scenario is in line with the guidance, and the new\r\nintensity forecast is in best agreement with the multi-model\r\nconsensus and LGEM.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 17.9N 119.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 18.0N 121.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 18.2N 123.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 18.3N 126.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 18.5N 129.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 18.8N 135.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 18.9N 139.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 19.5N 144.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nLester has gone through some impressive changes this evening.  The\r\nwell-developed eye has disappeared during the past couple of hours\r\non satellite images, with decreasing convection noted in the eastern\r\neyewall.  A blend of the Dvorak estimates from all agencies\r\nsupported increasing the winds to 95 kt at the synoptic time, but\r\nI have elected to show an initial wind speed of 90 kt given the\r\nrecent degradation on satellite.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane should be in a low-shear, marginal-moisture\r\nenvironment for the next several days, with only gradually\r\ndecreasing water temperatures expected as Lester moves nearly\r\nparallel to the typical eastern Pacific SST gradient.  Most of the\r\nguidance suggest that Lester's intensity will peak within the next\r\n24 hours, then slowly fall.  This is a trickier forecast than it\r\nseems because the forecast environmental conditions are reminiscent\r\nof those necessary for an annular hurricane, which would likely keep\r\nLester stronger than much of the guidance.  At this point, given\r\nthe recent satellite trends, the official intensity prediction is\r\nkept the same as the previous one, a bit higher than the intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 270/11.  A strong subtropical\r\nridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a westward\r\ncourse for at least the next 3 to 4 days.  After that time,\r\nuncertainties increase with both the strength of the ridge and\r\nany potential binary interaction with Madeline.  There have been\r\nvery little changes to the overall guidance suite, and the new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is near the previous one, nudged a bit to the west\r\nat longer ranges.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 18.0N 120.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 18.1N 122.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 18.2N 125.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 18.3N 128.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 18.4N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 18.6N 136.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 18.7N 140.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 19.5N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nLester's cloud pattern is not as well organized as it was late\r\nyesterday.  The distribution of deep convection within the\r\nhurricane's central dense overcast has become asymmetric and an\r\neye is no longer visible.  Despite Lester's degraded appearance in\r\nconventional satellite imagery, microwave data from several hours\r\nago suggested that Lester was generally maintaining its inner-core\r\nstructure. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased since the last advisory.\r\nA blend of Final T- and CI-numbers from both satellite agencies\r\nsupports lowering the initial intensity estimate to 85 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/12.  A strong subtropical ridge\r\nshould steer Lester just north of due-west for the next 3 to 4 days.\r\nLonger term, uncertainty regarding the strength of the subtropical\r\nridge north of Lester and any potential binary interaction with\r\nMadeline come into play.  This uncertainty seems to be less than in\r\nprevious cycles, however, with the GFS and ECMWF now much closer at\r\n96 and 120 hours. The new NHC track is close to a blend of these two\r\nmodels throughout the forecast period and is just a bit to the\r\nsouth of the previous forecast at those times.\r\n\r\nIt is not clear what interrupted Lester's intensification.\r\nRegardless, Lester should be in a low-shear, marginally moist\r\nenvironment and over only gradually decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures during the next few days.  Assuming that the hurricane\r\ncontinues to retain its inner-core structure, this could allow\r\nLester to re-intensify some during the next 12 to 24 hours before it\r\nencounters even drier mid-level air. However, none of the intensity\r\nguidance shows this possibility, and instead shows slow weakening\r\nfor the remainder of the forecast period.  The intensity forecast is\r\na challenging one, and is of overall low confidence.  It shows\r\nlittle change in strength in the short term and is slightly above\r\nthe consensus aids, but is then near the multi-model consensus after\r\nthat.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 17.9N 122.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 17.9N 124.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 18.1N 126.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 18.2N 129.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 18.4N 132.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0600Z 18.4N 137.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0600Z 18.6N 142.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  02/0600Z 19.4N 147.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate and the eye is no\r\nlonger observed on conventional imagery, but it is hidden under the\r\ncirrus canopy as revealed by a 1206 UTC SSMIS pass. The convection\r\ncontinues to be concentrated near the center, and the outflow is\r\nfair.  Dvorak objective numbers from CIMMS and estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB support a lower intensity of 75 kt.\r\n\r\nThere are no obvious reasons why Lester should continue to weaken.\r\nThe environment, at least for the next few days, does not appear to\r\nbe detrimental for Lester to intensify, other than perhaps a small\r\ndecrease in the SSTs.  Given these factors, the NHC forecast calls\r\nfor no change in intensity during the next 4 days with some\r\nweakening thereafter when Lester eventually encounters drier air.\r\nThis forecast is consistent with the intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nLester is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The track\r\nforecast is a little more straightforward since the hurricane is\r\nembedded within a deep layer of easterly flow associated with a\r\npersistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. By the end of\r\nthe forecast period, Lester will likely turn west-northwest toward\r\na weakness inf the ridge.  Track guidance is tightly packed, and the\r\nNHC forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, and does\r\nnot deviate much from the previous NHC prediction\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 18.1N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 18.2N 125.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 18.3N 128.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 18.5N 131.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 18.5N 134.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1200Z 18.5N 138.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1200Z 18.5N 143.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  02/1200Z 19.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has not changed very much during the day and the\r\nconvection has been fluctuating in intensity. Occasionally, an eye\r\nfeature has been observed on conventional imagery. Dvorak estimates,\r\nboth objective and subjective, have not changed since this morning\r\nand still support an initial intensity of 75 kt.\r\n\r\nThe shear environment appears to be favorable for Lester to\r\nintensify, but SSTs along the hurricane track are decreasing\r\nslightly. Given these two opposing factors, the NHC forecast\r\ncalls for no change in intensity during the next 5 days. This\r\nforecast follows very closely the intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nLester is moving westward or 270 degrees at 11 kt. The hurricane is\r\nembedded within a deep layer of easterly flow on the south side of a\r\npersistent subtropical ridge across the Pacific. Given the well\r\nestablished steering flow, the track guidance continues to be\r\ntightly packed, and this increases the confidence in the future\r\nmotion of the hurricane. The NHC forecast is very similar to the\r\nprevious one and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 17.8N 124.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 18.0N 132.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 18.0N 134.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  31/1800Z 18.0N 139.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 18.5N 143.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  02/1800Z 19.5N 148.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN AUG 28 2016\r\n\r\nAfter appearing steady state throughout the day, the cloud pattern\r\nof Lester has become a little better organized during the past\r\ncouple of hours with an eye apparent once again in satellite images.\r\nThe initial wind speed is held at 75 kt for this advisory, in\r\nagreement with the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, but\r\nthis could be a little conservative. The environmental parameters\r\nfor intensification are mixed. Although the shear is expected to be\r\nlight to moderate during the next several days, marginally warm sea\r\nsurface temperatures and intrusions of dry air could negate the\r\ninfluence of the low shear. Based on the current trend and expected\r\nconditions, some slight strengthening is shown in the short term\r\nfollowed by a very slow weakening thereafter. This forecast is in\r\nclose agreement with the intensity model consensus and is not too\r\ndifferent from the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving westward about 12 kt on the south side\r\nof a strong high pressure system.  Lester is expected to remain to\r\nthe south of mid-level ridging during the next several days, and\r\nthat should keep the system moving westward at about the same\r\nforward speed.  The model guidance is in good agreement, and only\r\nsmall changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 17.9N 126.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 18.0N 128.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 18.1N 131.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0000Z 18.2N 136.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 18.1N 140.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 18.5N 145.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  03/0000Z 19.7N 150.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nLester has made a comeback.  A ragged eye that had formed around the\r\ntime of the last advisory has cleared out and warmed significantly.\r\nThe hurricane's central dense overcast has also expanded and become\r\nmore axisymmetric while the cyclone has shed its outer bands.\r\nOverall, the characteristics exhibited by Lester are those that\r\ntypify annular hurricanes.  The Dvorak T-number from TAFB increased\r\nto T5.5/102 kt at 0600 UTC, with the latest UW-CIMSS ADT values\r\naround T5.4/100 kt.  Given these data, the initial intensity\r\nestimate is raised to 100 kt, making Lester the fourth major\r\nhurricane of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/13.  A strong subtropical\r\nridge north of Lester should continue to steer the hurricane nearly\r\ndue west for the next 3 days.  After that time, a probable binary\r\ninteraction with Madeline should result in a west-northwestward\r\nshift in the cyclone's heading as it approaches the Hawaiian\r\nIslands.  Except for the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance is\r\nrelatively tightly clustered through 5 days.  The NHC track forecast\r\nis nearly identical to the previous one and is closest to a blend of\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nIn general, Lester should be embedded in a light easterly shear\r\nenvironment during the next several days while it moves over nearly\r\nconstant sea surface temperatures between 26-27 deg C. These\r\nconditions suggest that Lester could maintain its current annular\r\ncharacteristics for some time, even though the large-scale\r\nenvironment is only marginally conducive for it to do so.  Lester's\r\ncurrent intensification phase has caused the NHC intensity forecast\r\nto be increased quite a bit over the previous one.  It is also\r\nabove nearly all of the guidance throughout the period, especially\r\nin the short term, given the tendency of forecasts for annular\r\nhurricanes to overestimate their future filling rate.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 18.0N 127.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 18.0N 129.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 18.1N 132.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 18.1N 134.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  31/0600Z 18.1N 137.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 18.2N 141.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 18.7N 146.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  03/0600Z 20.2N 151.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 AM PDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nLester's satellite presentation is quite impressive this morning.\r\nThe cyclone's eye continues to warm and and the inner core\r\ncloud top temperatures have cooled considerably.  A blend of 1200\r\nUTC satellite intensity estimates of 105 kt, and a recent ADT\r\nobjective intensity estimate yields an increased initial intensity\r\nof 110 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nLester should remain in a low-shear environment for the next several\r\ndays, with only some gradual decrease in the oceanic water\r\ntemperature.  The majority of the intensity guidance indicate that\r\nthe hurricane will peak within the next 12 hours or so, then\r\ngradual decrease.  It appears that the atmospheric environment and\r\nthe sea surface temperatures match similar criteria for an annular\r\nhurricane manifestation.  If Lester acquires annular hurricane\r\ncharacteristics, the cyclone could remain stronger longer than\r\nreflected in the official forecast and what the intensity guidance\r\nsuggests.  The NHC forecast is adjusted a bit higher in the short\r\nterm, then shows gradual weakening and falls in line with the IVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 270/13.  A strong, deep-layer\r\nridge to the north of Lester should steer the cyclone on a continued\r\nwestward course during the next 3 days.  Beyond that period, the\r\nlarge-scale models indicate some interaction with Madeline to the\r\nsouthwest of Lester which induces a gradual turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest through day 5.  The official forecast follows suit\r\nand is based on a multi-model consensus and is quite similar to the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 18.1N 129.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 18.1N 131.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0000Z 18.2N 135.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1200Z 18.2N 138.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 18.4N 143.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 19.3N 147.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  03/1200Z 21.0N 153.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nLester continues to strengthen.  Visible and enhanced BD-curve\r\ninfrared imagery show a symmetric, thick, inner core ring consisting\r\nof cloud tops of -70 to -75C and an impressive fanning outflow\r\npattern.  A blend of the subjective and objective satellite\r\nintensity estimates supports raising the initial intensity to 115\r\nkt, making Lester a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\r\nHurricane Wind Scale.  A low vertical shear environment should\r\npersist during the next several days, and the sea surface\r\ntemperatures are expected to remain around 26C as the cyclone moves\r\nalong the climatolgically oriented eastern Pacific SST gradient.\r\nStatistical-dynamical intensity models indicate that the hurricane\r\nmay have already peaked, but there still could be some intensity\r\nfluctuations during the next 12 hours.  Afterward, the cyclone\r\nshould gradually weaken, most likely caused by an increasingly\r\nmarginal thermodynamic environment and a decreasing oceanic heat\r\ncontent.  The intensity forecast is nudged a little higher due to\r\nthe current intensification trend, and is close to the intensity\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nLester's initial motion estimate is a steadfast 270/12.  A\r\nsubtropical high anchored to the north of Lester should influence a\r\ngenerally westward course during the next 3 days.  Through the\r\nremaining forecast period, the cyclone is expected to gradually turn\r\nwest-northwestward in response to some binary interaction with\r\nMadeline situated to the southwest of Lester.  The official forecast\r\nis based on this scenario and sides with the TVCN consensus model\r\nand is basically an update of the previous package.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/2100Z 18.0N 130.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0600Z 18.0N 132.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1800Z 18.1N 134.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  31/0600Z 18.0N 137.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  31/1800Z 18.1N 139.4W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 18.5N 144.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  02/1800Z 19.6N 148.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  03/1800Z 21.2N 153.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 PM PDT MON AUG 29 2016\r\n\r\nLester is a powerful category 4 hurricane.  The eye of the\r\nhurricane, which is now about 20 n mi wide, has expanded and cleared\r\nout during the last several hours.  Visible satellite images also\r\nindicate that mesovorticies exist within the eye.  The convective\r\npattern has been very symmetric, and the hurricane continues to have\r\nan annular appearance in satellite images. The latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB were 6.5/127 kt and 5.5/102 kt,\r\nrespectively.  Based on these estimates and automated Dvorak values\r\nfrom CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed\r\nis raised a little to 120 kt.  Lester is estimated to have\r\nstrengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt during the past 24\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe major hurricane is likely near its peak intensity, but\r\nfluctuations in strength are possible in the short term.  Beyond\r\nthat time, marginally warm sea surface temperatures and a stable air\r\nmass suggest that Lester will likely weaken gradually during the\r\nnext several days.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and is fairly close to the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nLester continues to move due westward about 12 kt on the south\r\nside of a strong mid-level high pressure system.  A continued\r\nwestward track at about the same forward speed is predicted during\r\nthe next few days while the system remains to the south of the\r\nridge. After that time, a slight turn toward the west-northwest is\r\nlikely due to some interaction with another tropical cyclone,\r\nMadeline, to its west-southwest.  The models remain tightly\r\nclustered, and the NHC official track forecast lies near the middle\r\nof the guidance envelope.  This forecast takes Lester close to the\r\nHawaiian Islands in about 5 days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0300Z 18.1N 131.8W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1200Z 18.2N 133.7W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0000Z 18.2N 136.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1200Z 18.3N 138.3W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 18.3N 140.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 19.0N 145.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0000Z 20.3N 149.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  04/0000Z 22.0N 154.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nLester has begun to weaken.  The areal extent of deep convection\r\nwithin the hurricane's central dense overcast (CDO) has decreased\r\nsubstantially, and the CDO has lost much of its axisymmetry since\r\nlate yesterday.  In addition, the eye has warmed and become a little\r\nless defined. The recent weakening could be associated with an\r\nincrease in easterly shear over the cyclone as analyzed by UW-CIMSS\r\nand SHIPS model output.  Dvorak T-numbers have responded by suddenly\r\ndecreasing.  A blend of the latest TAFB Final T- and CI-numbers,\r\nincluding the UW-CIMSS ADT values, is used to lower the initial\r\nintensity estimate to 110 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/12.  A strong mid-level ridge\r\nover the east-central subtropical Pacific should continue to steer\r\nLester just north of due west for the next couple of days.  A\r\nprobable binary interaction with Madeline should cause Lester's\r\nheading to turn west-northwestward as the hurricane approaches the\r\nHawaiian Islands in 3-5 days.  The NHC track forecast is barely\r\nadjusted relative to the previous one, and is closest to a blend of\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is, again, quite challenging. The delicate\r\nbalance of environmental factors leading to Lester's annular\r\nstructure yesterday may have been disrupted by the recent uptick in\r\neasterly shear.  With the shear forecast to diminish over the next\r\nday or so while the cyclone continues to move over nearly constant\r\nSSTs, Lester could regain its annular characteristics.  This would\r\nallow Lester to sustain a higher intensity during the next 2-3 days\r\nthan what the intensity guidance indicates.  After that time, the\r\nECMWF shows a less conducive environment than the GFS, which could\r\nresult in a more decided weakening.  Given the greater than normal\r\nuncertainty, the NHC forecast stays close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus throughout the period.\r\n\r\nLester's wind radii have been adjusted based on a partial ASCAT\r\noverpass.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/0900Z 18.2N 133.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  30/1800Z 18.3N 135.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  31/0600Z 18.4N 137.5W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  31/1800Z 18.4N 139.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 18.5N 141.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  02/0600Z 19.3N 146.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  03/0600Z 20.8N 151.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  04/0600Z 22.7N 156.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nLester continues to slowly weaken.  The eye of the hurricane has\r\nbecome less defined in satellite images and although convection\r\nremains quite deep, it is more asymmetric than it was overnight.\r\nRecent microwave data also reveal that the eyewall has eroded some\r\non the north side. A blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Final T- and\r\nCI-numbers, including the UW-CIMSS ADT values, is used to lower the\r\ninitial intensity to 105 kt.  Sea surface temperatures ahead of\r\nLester only lower slightly along the expected track and the wind\r\nshear is expected to be generally light.  The SHIPS model does\r\nshow the environmental moisture decreasing near Lester during the\r\nnext several days.  These conditions should cause a gradual\r\nweakening of Lester, and the NHC intensity forecast follows the\r\ntrend of the previous one and stays near the intensity model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe major hurricane remains on a due westward course at 12 kt. A\r\nstrong mid-level ridge over the east-central subtropical Pacific\r\nshould continue to steer Lester westward for the next couple of\r\ndays.  After that time, a slight turn to the west-northwest is\r\npredicted, due to possible binary interaction with Madeline, when\r\nLester approaches the Hawaiian Islands in 3-5 days.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one, and lies close to the\r\nvarious consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/1500Z 18.1N 134.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0000Z 18.1N 136.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1200Z 18.1N 138.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 18.2N 140.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 18.5N 142.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1200Z 19.8N 147.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1200Z 21.4N 152.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  04/1200Z 23.4N 157.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nThe weakening trend of Lester appears to have stopped for the time\r\nbeing.  Satellite images show a well-defined 15 n mi diameter eye\r\nsurrounded by a solid ring of deep convection.  The Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB were both 5.5/102 kt and automated\r\nvalues from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are 5.9/112 kt.\r\nBased on these data, the initial wind speed is held at 105 kt for\r\nthis advisory. The environment ahead of Lester is not hostile, but\r\nslightly lower sea-surface temperatures and drier air along its\r\ntrack should cause the hurricane to gradually weaken through the\r\nforecast period. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the\r\nprevious one and stays near the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe major hurricane is now moving a little south of due west at\r\n12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge over the east-central subtropical\r\nPacific should continue to steer Lester westward for the next couple\r\nof days.  After that time, a slight turn to the west-northwest is\r\npredicted, due to possible binary interaction with Madeline, when\r\nLester moves near or just north of the Hawaiian Islands in 3-5\r\ndays. The NHC track forecast is a little to the south of the\r\nprevious one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  30/2100Z 17.8N 135.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 12H  31/0600Z 17.8N 137.2W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  31/1800Z 17.9N 139.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0600Z 18.1N 141.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  01/1800Z 18.5N 143.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  02/1800Z 19.9N 148.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  03/1800Z 21.5N 153.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  04/1800Z 23.3N 158.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE AUG 30 2016\r\n\r\nLester has shown a sudden reintensification this evening as a\r\nsymmetric eyewall with very cold cloud tops is encircling a 25 nm\r\ndiameter warm eye.  Subjective Dvorak classifications from SAB and\r\nTAFB are at 6.5 and 6.0 current intensity numbers, respectively,\r\nwhile the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique is at 6.3.  A blend of\r\nthese gives 120 kt maximum winds at the initial time, up\r\nconsiderably from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nLester is anticipated to experience quite low vertical shear for\r\nthe next few days, though the lukewarm SSTs and 40-50 percent\r\nhumidity air are only marginally conducive for maintaining high\r\nintensities.  The current convective structure and its environment\r\nsuggest that Lester may be evolving into an annular hurricane,\r\nwhich tends to weaken only slowly over time.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is closest to the HWRF and DSHP models, and is above that\r\nfrom the previous advisory due to the higher initial intensity.\r\n\r\nLester is moving toward the west-southwest at about 11 kt.  A large\r\nsubtropical ridge to its north is providing the westward steering\r\nand low shear environment.  The tightly packed model guidance\r\nindicate that the system should turn slightly toward the west or\r\nwest-northwest during the next two days at about the same rate of\r\nforward speed.  The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus technique and is very close to that from the\r\nprevious advisory.\r\n\r\nNo new information is available about Lester's initial wind radii,\r\nso that is unchanged from the previous advisory.  The NHC wind radii\r\nforecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique and nearly\r\nthe same as that from the last advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0300Z 17.8N 136.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1200Z 17.8N 138.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0000Z 17.9N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1200Z 18.2N 142.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0000Z 18.7N 144.7W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0000Z 20.0N 149.6W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0000Z 21.8N 155.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  05/0000Z 23.5N 159.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nLester continues to display a distinct 20 nm diameter eye in the\r\nmiddle of a symmetric eyewall with no banding features.  Subjective\r\nDvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB remain at 6.5 and 6.0\r\ncurrent intensity numbers, respectively, while the CIMSS Advanced\r\nDvorak Technique is at 6.6.  A blend of these gives 120 kt maximum\r\nwinds at the initial time, the same as previously indicated.\r\n\r\nLester is anticipated to experience quite low vertical shear for the\r\nnext few days, though the lukewarm SSTs and about 40 percent\r\nhumidity air are only marginally conducive for maintaining high\r\nintensities. The current convective structure and its environment\r\nsuggest that Lester may have evolved into an annular hurricane,\r\nwhich tends to weaken only slowly over time.  The 00Z intensity\r\nmodel guidance has backed off some from the 18Z model suite. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast - slightly lower than that in the previous\r\nadvisory - is closest to the SHIPS model through 48 hours and the\r\nHWRF thereafter.\r\n\r\nLester is moving toward the west at about 10 kt.  A large\r\nsubtropical ridge to its north is providing the westward steering\r\nand low shear environment.  The tightly packed model guidance\r\nindicate that the system should turn slightly toward the\r\nwest-northwest during the next few days at about the same rate of\r\nforward speed.  The NHC track forecast is based upon the TVCN\r\nmulti-model consensus technique and is slightly south of the track\r\nfrom the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nA 0604Z ASCAT scatterometer pass indicated little change was needed\r\nfor the initial 34- and 50-kt wind radii.  The NHC wind radii\r\nforecast is based upon the RVCN consensus technique and nearly the\r\nsame as that from the last advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/0900Z 17.7N 137.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  31/1800Z 17.7N 139.1W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  01/0600Z 18.0N 141.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  01/1800Z 18.3N 143.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  02/0600Z 18.9N 145.8W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  03/0600Z 20.2N 151.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  04/0600Z 21.8N 156.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  05/0600Z 24.0N 161.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective ring around Lester's eye has warmed and shrunk a\r\nlittle in the past couple of hours, but the 15-20 n mi wide eye\r\nremains distinct.  Based on a blend of the latest subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak estimates, the initial intensity is set to 115 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  The forecast environment of low shear,\r\nmarginally cool SSTs, and a drier mid-level environment should\r\nresult in weakening during the next couple of days.  Later in the\r\nperiod the SSTs remain marginal, but southeasterly shear increases,\r\nand this should result in continued weakening through the rest of\r\nthe forecast period.  This trend is seen in all of the intensity\r\nguidance, with some spread.  The NHC intensity forecast has been\r\nadjusted downward a bit this cycle.  This forecast is above the\r\nlatest IVCN intensity consensus aid through 48 hours and near\r\nthe consensus at days 3-5.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/10.  Lester will continue to be\r\nsteered westward and then turn west-northwestward by an expansive\r\nmid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern\r\nPacific Ocean through the forecast period.  The track model\r\nguidance is in generally good agreement on this scenario, however,\r\nthere remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance\r\nnear the Hawaiian Islands.  The UKMET and GEFS ensemble mean are\r\nalong the southern edge of the guidance envelope with a track closer\r\nto the Big Island, while the HWRF and GFDL are farther north of the\r\nisland chain.  The ECMWF, GFS, and consensus aids lie between these\r\nscenarios just north of the islands.  The new NHC forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one and lies between the multi-\r\nmodel consensus and the latest GFS track.\r\n\r\nAll interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the\r\nprogress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts\r\nthere could be along the island chain from this tropical cyclone\r\ngiven the track forecast uncertainty in 3 to 5 days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 17.8N 138.6W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 17.9N 140.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 18.1N 142.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 18.6N 144.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 19.2N 147.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 20.6N 152.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 22.5N 157.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 24.5N 162.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lester","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP132016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE LESTER DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 31 2016\r\n\r\nLester's satellite appearance has not changed much since the last\r\nadvisory.  Although the eye has shrunk a little it remains quite\r\nwarm, and the convective ring around the eye still has tops colder\r\nthan -70C.  The initial intensity remains 115 kt based on the latest\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.  Lester\r\nhas some annular characteristics, with little convective banding.\r\nGiven the forecast track through a region of SSTs of 26-27C and in\r\nlow shear, steady weakening is expected through the forecast period.\r\nGiven the annular structure, the NHC forecast remains above most of\r\nthe guidance through much of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 275/11.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains unchanged, as Lester will continue to be steered westward\r\nand then turn west-northwestward by a mid-level ridge centered north\r\nof the Hawaiian Islands through the forecast period.  The track\r\nmodels remain in generally good agreement on this scenario, but\r\nthere remains some significant across-track spread in the guidance\r\nnear the Hawaiian Islands.  The GFS and UKMET models are along the\r\nsouthern edge of the main guidance envelope, with a track near or\r\nover the islands, while the HWRF, GFDL, and COAMPS-TC are farther\r\nnorth.  The NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one,\r\nand lies very close to the multi-model consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nAll interests in the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the\r\nprogress of Lester, as it is too early to determine what impacts\r\nthere could be along the island chain given the track forecast\r\nuncertainty in the 3 to 5 day period.  The NASA Gulfstream-V jet is\r\nflying a synoptic surveillance mission around Lester to acquire\r\nadditional data for tonight's 00Z global model cycle.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 18.0N 139.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 18.2N 141.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 18.6N 143.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 19.2N 146.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 19.8N 149.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 21.4N 154.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 23.2N 159.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  05/1800Z 25.0N 164.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-08-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016\r\n200 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery indicates that the area of low pressure in\r\nthe western part of the eastern North Pacific basin has developed a\r\nwell-defined center and has sufficient convective organization to be\r\nconsidered a tropical cyclone.  The convective pattern displays a\r\nCDO feature near and to the west of the estimated center location\r\ndue to some east-northeasterly shear, and the initial intensity is\r\nset to 30 kt based on the latest SAB Dvorak estimate.  The cyclone\r\nwill be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate easterly\r\nshear environment for the next 2 to 3 days.  This should allow for\r\nsteady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the cyclone\r\nbecoming a hurricane in about 3 days.  Later in the forecast period\r\nthe SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out, which should\r\nresult in some weakening.  The official intensity forecast is close\r\nto or a little below the IVCN consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 295/10 given the\r\nrecent formation of the center.  The depression is currently\r\nsituated on the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered\r\nnear 125W.  A west-northwestward motion is expected during the first\r\ncouple of days of the forecast period as the cyclone moves around\r\nthe edge of the ridge.  Late in the period a new ridge builds north\r\nof the Hawaiian Islands, which should result in a westward motion at\r\ndays 3 through 5.  The track model guidance is in generally good\r\nagreement on this scenario, however there is some spread, with the\r\nGFS slower and farther south by day 5, while the ECMWF is faster and\r\nfarther north.  The NHC forecast is near the center of the guidance\r\nenvelope and is a little south of the TVCN consensus and is north of\r\na blend of the GFS and ECMWF.\r\n\r\nIt is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone\r\ncould have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  It is important to remind users that the average 5-day\r\ntrack forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about\r\n170 miles.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 13.3N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 14.2N 137.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 15.2N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 15.8N 140.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 16.6N 141.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 18.0N 144.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 19.0N 148.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  31/1800Z 19.0N 152.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-08-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI AUG 26 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images shows that the cyclone has an impressive band\r\non the west side of the circulation wrapping at least halfway\r\naround the center.  Microwave data also shows an improved inner\r\ncore structure, although perhaps the vertical alignment is a bit\r\ntilted due to northeasterly shear.  Satellite intensity estimates\r\nrange between 30 to 35 kt, and with the increased satellite\r\npresentation since the last advisory, the wind speed is set to 35\r\nkt for this cycle.\r\n\r\nMadeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a low-to-moderate\r\neasterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3 days. This should\r\nallow for steady intensification, and the NHC forecast shows the\r\ncyclone becoming a hurricane in about 2 days.  Later in the forecast\r\nperiod the SSTs cool and the mid-level atmosphere dries out\r\nsomewhat, which should induce a weakening trend.  The guidance is a\r\nlittle higher than 6 hours ago, and the latest NHC intensity\r\nforecast follows the trend, remaining close to or a little below the\r\nIVCN consensus through the period.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes continue to show an initial motion of 295/10.\r\nMadeline should move generally west-northwestward for the next few\r\ndays around a subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific.  The\r\ncyclone is expected to take a westward turn at long range due to a\r\nnew ridge building in over the Central Pacific.  Models are not in\r\ngreat agreement on exactly when that turn will take place, and the\r\ndetails of the motion appear to be related to exactly how strong\r\nMadeline becomes.  Overall, the model guidance has shifted a little\r\nbit to the north on this forecast cycle, and the latest NHC\r\nprediction is adjusted in that direction at days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nIt is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone\r\ncould have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  It is important to remind users that the average 5-day\r\ntrack forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about\r\n170 miles.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 13.9N 137.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 14.6N 138.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 15.4N 139.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 16.1N 141.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 17.0N 142.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 18.5N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0000Z 19.5N 149.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 19.5N 153.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-08-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016\r\n200 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nMadeline is gradually becoming better organized this morning, with\r\nincreasing convective banding noted near the center. Satellite\r\nintensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to 45 kt, and\r\nthis intensity is supported by various objective estimates from\r\nCIMSS and CIRA.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 300/9.  For the next few days, Madeline\r\nshould move generally northwestward as it is steered by a segment of\r\nthe subtropical ridge.  After 72 hours, a turn toward the west is\r\nlikely as Madeline encounters the westward-building subtropical\r\nridge that is steering Hurricane Lester.  The track guidance has\r\nshifted significantly to the north since the previous advisory, and\r\nnear the end of the forecast period there is a fair amount of\r\nspread regarding whether Madeline will move near the Hawaiian\r\nIslands or north of them.  The new forecast track is shifted\r\nnorthward, but it lies to the south of the center of the guidance\r\nenvelope and the consensus models.\r\n\r\nMadeline will be moving over SSTs above 27C and in a\r\nlight-to-moderate easterly shear environment for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays. This should allow for steady intensification, and the new\r\nintensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in\r\nshowing Madeline becoming a hurricane in 36 hours or so.  After 72\r\nhours, cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier air mass along\r\nthe forecast track should result in a slow weakening.  The new\r\nintensity forecast is a little stronger than the previous forecast,\r\nbut it lies a little below the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nIt is too early to determine what, if any, impacts this cyclone\r\ncould have on the Hawaiian Islands near the end of the forecast\r\nperiod.  It is important to remind users that the average 5-day\r\ntrack forecast error for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones is about\r\n170 miles.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 14.5N 138.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 15.1N 139.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 15.8N 140.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 16.7N 141.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 17.8N 143.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 19.5N 146.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  31/0600Z 20.5N 150.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  01/0600Z 20.5N 155.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-08-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016\r\n800 AM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nA GPM overpass from 1146 UTC indicated that the low-level center of\r\nMadeline was located northeast of previous estimates, near the\r\nnortheastern edge of the convection.  This is consistent with the\r\nmoderate northeasterly shear analyzed over the cyclone by the SHIPS\r\nmodel output based on the GFS and ECMWF fields.  The initial\r\nintensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory in agreement with the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB, and this value is also\r\nclose to the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis.\r\n\r\nGiven the relocation of the center, the best estimate of the initial\r\nmotion is an uncertain 310/08.  Madeline is expected to continue\r\nmoving generally northwestward for the next 72 hours around the\r\nsouthwesterly periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near 125W.\r\nAfter that time, a ridge centered north of the Hawaiian Islands\r\nbecomes the dominant steering mechanism, and should impart a\r\nwestward motion through the remainder of the forecast period.  While\r\nthe overall track forecast philosophy has not changed, the more\r\nnortherly initial position has resulted in a northward shift of the\r\nguidance envelope and the NHC forecast by 30 to 50 n mi through the\r\nforecast period.  The new NHC track is near the middle of the\r\nguidance envelope and close to the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over Madeline during the\r\nnext 12 hours or so, which should allow for some intensification\r\nthrough 72 hours while the cyclone is moving over SSTs above 27C.\r\nThe NHC forecast continues to show Madeline reaching hurricane\r\nintensity in about 36 hours.  At days 4 and 5, the SSTs along the\r\ntrack drop below 27C and the westerly shear increases, which should\r\nresult in some weakening.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a\r\nlittle lower than the previous one after 48 hours due to the more\r\nnortherly track and is near or a little above the latest intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nIt is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on\r\nthe Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.  It is important\r\nto remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors\r\nfor eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles,\r\nrespectively.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 15.2N 138.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 15.9N 139.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 16.7N 140.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 17.7N 142.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 18.8N 143.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 20.5N 147.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1200Z 21.0N 151.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  01/1200Z 21.0N 155.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-08-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016\r\n200 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nGOES-West visible imagery shows that the center of Madeline is\r\nlocated on the northeastern edge of a ragged area of central\r\nconvection, with a large convective band wrapping around the western\r\nsemicircle of the circulation.  The initial intensity estimate is 50\r\nkt, which is a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nclassifications.  The SHIPS model output shows the vertical shear\r\ndecreasing below 10 kt by tonight, while Madeline is moving over\r\nSSTs above 27C.  This environment should allow for some additional\r\nstrengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, the\r\ntropical cyclone will be moving over cooler SSTs and into a drier\r\nenvironment, with mid-level relative humidity values falling below\r\n50 percent.  This should result in gradual weakening, followed by\r\nsteadier weakening later in the period as the vertical wind shear\r\nincreases above 20 kt.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a little\r\nhigher than the previous one in the short range given the observed\r\nstrengthening, and is similar afterward.  This forecast is close to\r\nor a bit below the latest IVCN consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/09.  The track forecast reasoning\r\nremains unchanged, as Madeline should continue moving generally\r\nnorthwestward for the next 48 hours under the influence of mid-level\r\nridge centered well to its northeast.  Later in the period, a\r\nstrengthening mid-level ridge north of the Hawaiian Island will\r\nbecome the dominant steering mechanism and result in a westward or\r\nslightly south of due westward track.  Through 72 hours the new NHC\r\nforecast is largely and update of the previous near one and close to\r\nthe TVCN consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope.  At\r\ndays 4 and 5 the global models have shown run-to-run inconsistency\r\nabout the details of Madeline's track near the Hawaiian Islands.\r\nThe latest runs of the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF have shifted south, with\r\na track south of the Big Island, while much of the rest of the\r\nguidance is farther north.  The NHC track has been shifted southward\r\na little at days 4 and 5, but lies a little north of the multi-model\r\nconsensus and well north of the southerly set of models.\r\n\r\nGiven the lack of consistency in the track guidance, the confidence\r\nin the track foreast late in the period is lower than usual and it\r\nis too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the\r\nHawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.  It is important to\r\nremind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for\r\neastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles,\r\nrespectively.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 15.7N 139.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 16.4N 140.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 17.3N 141.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 18.3N 143.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 19.3N 144.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 20.4N 148.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  31/1800Z 20.5N 152.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  01/1800Z 20.0N 157.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Madeline","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-08-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP142016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM MADELINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142016\r\n800 PM PDT SAT AUG 27 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has changed little in organization during the\r\npast several hours and convection is not as deep as earlier today.\r\nHowever, the pattern still consists of a cyclonically curved\r\nconvective band around the center. Dvorak estimates continue\r\nto support an initial intensity of 50 kt. The cyclone is expected to\r\nbe moving within an environment of light shear for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays and over warm waters. This should encourage some\r\nintensification. After that time however, the shear is expected to\r\nincrease to above 20 kt, and the environment will be less humid,\r\nresulting in gradual weakening. The NHC forecast is very similar to\r\nits predecessor, and is very close to the intensity consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes indicate that Madeline is moving toward the west-\r\nnorthwest or 285 degrees at 7 kt. The cyclone is located on\r\nthe southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and is approaching a\r\nlarge mid-latitude trough to its northwest. This pattern should\r\nsteer Madeline on a more west-northwest course during the next day\r\nor two. The trough is forecast to lift out quickly and be replaced\r\nby a strong ridge in about 3 days. This pattern should force\r\nMadeline to turn toward the west or even south of due west by the\r\nend of the forecast period. Track guidance has been very consistent\r\nwith this solution, and the NHC forecast is in a narrow gap\r\nbetween the previous NHC prediction and the multi-model consensus.\r\nGiven the small southward shift of the consensus at day 5, the NHC\r\nforecast position was adjusted southward accordingly.\r\n\r\nThe confidence in the track foreast late in the period is lower than\r\nusual and it is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could\r\nhave on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.  It is\r\nimportant to remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track\r\nforecast errors for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145\r\nand 170 miles, respectively.\r\n\r\nGiven that Madeline has moved into the Central Pacific basin, future\r\ninformation on this system will be issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 15.7N 140.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 16.5N 141.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 17.4N 142.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 18.4N 143.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 19.2N 145.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  31/0000Z 20.0N 149.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 19.5N 153.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  02/0000Z 19.0N 158.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n400 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure located near the southwestern coast of\r\nMexico has become better organized today.  Satellite data indicate\r\nthat the center of circulation is now well defined, and thunderstorm\r\nactivity is sufficiently organized to classify the system as a\r\ntropical depression.  A recent ASCAT pass indicated that maximum\r\nwinds were near 30 kt, and that is used as the initial wind speed.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion of the depression is highly uncertain since it\r\nhas just formed, but the best guess is 345/2 kt.  A faster\r\nnorthwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue for\r\nthe next couple of days while the system moves in the flow on the\r\nsouthwestern edge of a mid-level ridge.  This pattern should take\r\nthe cyclone very near or over the southern portion of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula in about 2 days.  A more northward motion is\r\nforecast after that time when the cyclone moves around the ridge.\r\nThe model guidance is in fair agreement on this scenario, and the\r\nNHC track forecast lies close to the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nThe depression is in an environment of moist air, moderate shear and\r\nover warm waters.  Since the cyclone is expected to remain in those\r\nconditions until it nears the Baja coast, steady strengthening is\r\nanticipated.  Once it crosses Baja, land interaction and an\r\nincrease in shear should cause weakening.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is fairly close to the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nIt is worth noting that there are large differences in the future\r\nwind radii predicted by the global and statistical models.  The\r\nNHC size forecast closely follows the wind radii consensus model.\r\n\r\nBased on the current forecast, the government of Mexico has\r\nissued a Hurricane Watch for the southern portion of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  A tropical storm or hurricane warning could\r\nbe required by tonight. Heavy rains, which could result in flash\r\nflooding and mud slides, are expected to continue over portions of\r\nsouthwestern Mexico for another day or so.  These rains will likely\r\nspread over the Baja California peninsula within the next couple of\r\ndays.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  04/2100Z 16.0N 105.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  05/0600Z 17.1N 106.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  05/1800Z 18.6N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  06/0600Z 20.7N 109.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  06/1800Z 22.8N 110.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  07/1800Z 28.0N 112.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  08/1800Z 32.3N 111.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Newton","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016\r\n\r\nA pair of ASCAT passes late this afternoon indicated that the\r\ndepression was producing 30-35 kt winds on its southern side.\r\nSince the last advisory, the circulation and convective pattern\r\nhave continued to improve, and both subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nestimates have increased.  Based on all these data, the depression\r\nis upgraded to Tropical Storm Newton with maximum winds of 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThere might be multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common\r\ncenter, but the best estimate of the center yields an initial\r\nmotion of 340/7 kt.  Newton is located to the south of a\r\nmid-tropospheric ridge which extends from Texas southwestward over\r\nthe Pacific.  However, an amplifying trough near California is\r\nexpected to shunt the ridge eastward within the next 24 hours,\r\nwhich will help to accelerate Newton toward the northwest or\r\nnorth-northwest during the next couple of days.  There is very\r\nlittle spread among the track guidance, but most of the models\r\n(with the exception of the EMCWF) are now a little faster than the\r\nprevious NHC forecast.  The new NHC forecast is therefore a little\r\nfaster, bringing the center of Newton very close to the extreme\r\nsouthern Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours.  After that,\r\nNewton is forecast to turn northward, moving over the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula, the Gulf of California, and into northwestern\r\nmainland Mexico by day 3.\r\n\r\nNewton is over very deep, warm water at the moment, and SSTs are\r\nexpected to be between 28-30C until the cyclone reaches the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  In addition, vertical shear is expected to\r\nremain low for the next couple of days.  Therefore, Newton is\r\nexpected to strengthen before it reaches land, with rapid\r\nintensification not out of the question.  The Rapid Intensification\r\nIndex currently shows a 1-in-4 chance of a 30-kt increase in winds\r\nduring the next 24 hours.  Most of the hurricane models, both\r\ndynamical and statistical, are only showing modest strengthening,\r\nbut the global model fields indicate that Newton could be near\r\nhurricane intensity when it is near the Baja California peninsula.\r\nTherefore, the NHC intensity forecast now brings Newton to just\r\nbelow hurricane intensity in 36 hours, which is at the high end of\r\nthe guidance.  Weakening should occur after 36 hours due to\r\ninteraction with land and increasing vertical shear.\r\n\r\nAlthough the official forecast does not explicitly show Newton\r\nbecoming a hurricane, it will be close enough to hurricane strength\r\nthat the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for the\r\nextreme southern Baja California peninsula.  Additional tropical\r\nstorm watches and warnings have been issued since Newton's wind\r\nfield is expected to expand.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0300Z 17.0N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1200Z 18.4N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0000Z 20.2N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1200Z 22.3N 109.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/0000Z 24.7N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER BAJA PENINSULA\r\n 72H  08/0000Z 29.9N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  09/0000Z 34.5N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Newton","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n300 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nNewton appears to be gradually strengthening.  The tropical storm is\r\nproducing a large area of deep convection, which is a little better\r\norganized than it was several hours ago.  The Dvorak classifications\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB were 2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at\r\nthe University of Wisconsin are close to 3.0/45 kt.  Based on these\r\ndata, the initial wind speed estimate is increased to 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has been challenging to locate overnight, but\r\nit appears that Newton is moving north-northwestward at about 9 kt.\r\nThe tropical storm is forecast to move northwestward at a faster\r\npace during the next day or two while it tracks along the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the\r\nsouth-central United States.  A turn to the north is expected beyond\r\na couple of days when Newton rounds the ridge and moves into a\r\npronounced weakness.  The track guidance has shifted a little to the\r\nwest this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been nudged in that\r\ndirection.  The new NHC forecast brings the center of Newton very\r\nclose to the extreme southern Baja California peninsula in 24 to 36\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nLow shear, a moist environment, and very warm water should allow\r\nNewton to steadily strengthen until it reaches the Baja California\r\npeninsula. In fact, rapid intensification is a possibility as the\r\nSHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a 40 percent chance of a\r\n30-kt increase in the winds during the next 24 hours.  Based on the\r\nexpected conducive environment, the NHC intensity forecast remains\r\nnear the high end of the guidance during the next day or two. After\r\nNewton passes the Baja peninsula, weakening should occur due to land\r\ninteraction and an increase in vertical wind shear.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, the Government of Mexico has extended\r\nthe watches and warnings northward along the Baja California\r\ncoastlines and the west coast of mainland Mexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/0900Z 17.9N 106.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  05/1800Z 19.2N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  06/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  06/1800Z 23.3N 110.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 48H  07/0600Z 25.9N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST\r\n 72H  08/0600Z 31.2N 111.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Newton","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n900 AM MDT MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nNewton's cloud pattern is characterized by a large mass of very\r\ncold-topped convection, with the center located underneath this\r\nformative central dense overcast on the north side.  A ship earlier\r\nreported 50 kt, and although the ship had somewhat of a high bias,\r\nthe 12z sounding from Manzanillo reported an 850 mb wind of 65 kt.\r\nA typical wind reduction over the water would suggest about 50 kt\r\nat the surface, and since the sounding supports the ship\r\nobservation, the initial intensity is set to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe center location of Newton has been difficult to determine, and\r\nhence the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/11.  Newton\r\nis currently being steered northwestward on the southwest side of a\r\nmid-level ridge over the United States Lower Mississippi Valley.\r\nThe cyclone should be drawn north-northwestward and then northward\r\nin 36 to 48 hours between this feature and a trough of low pressure\r\ngradually lifting out over the western United States.  The official\r\nNHC track forecast is somewhat faster and slightly to the left of\r\nthe previous one and near the multi-model consensus.  It lies on\r\nthe western side of the guidance, but with only the ECMWF and UKMET\r\nmodels to the left.\r\n\r\nNewton is expected to remain in a very moist environment with\r\ngenerally light northeasterly shear during the next 24 hours.\r\nThese factors, along with the cyclone's passage over sea surface\r\ntemperatures above 29 deg C, should allow for steady\r\nintensification until the center reaches the coast.  The only\r\nobvious obstacle to strengthening is Newton's broad structure, but\r\nindications are that the cyclone may be in the process of\r\nconsolidating.  It should be noted that the SHIPS RI Index\r\nindicates a 60-70 percent chance of an intensity increase of around\r\n25 kt during the next 24 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast now\r\ncalls for Newton to become a hurricane prior to landfall, which is\r\na little above the multi-model consensus.  Weakening is likely when\r\nNewton moves across the Baja California peninsula, but little\r\nchange in strength is expected as southwesterly shear begins to\r\nincrease over the Gulf of California in 36 to 48 hours.\r\n\r\nNewton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards\r\nare likely to affect a large portion of Baja California and\r\nnorthwestern Mexico.   In addition, moisture associated with the\r\nremnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash\r\nflooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.\r\n\r\nBased on the new intensity and track forecasts, the government of\r\nMexico has made a variety of changes to the watches and warnings.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/1500Z 19.1N 107.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0000Z 20.6N 108.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1200Z 22.8N 110.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  07/0000Z 25.3N 111.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1200Z 28.1N 111.6W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  08/1200Z 33.5N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  09/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Newton","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen.\r\nA ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more\r\nsymmetric overall pattern in the eyewall.  The Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds\r\nof 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this\r\ntime. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton\r\nis in an environment of light shear and very warm water.  The\r\nofficial NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus\r\nin the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility.\r\nNote the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since\r\nlandfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points.\r\nWeakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction\r\nwith the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given\r\nthe fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong\r\ntropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora.\r\n\r\nNewton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14.  Newton\r\nshould gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48\r\nhours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the\r\nsouthern United States.  The biggest change in the latest model\r\ncycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of\r\nthe previous guidance.  This makes sense because, with a stronger\r\nNewton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would\r\nsteer the deeper storm in that direction.  The new NHC track\r\nprediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period.\r\n\r\nNewton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards\r\nare likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and\r\nnorthwestern Mexico.   In addition, moisture associated with the\r\nremnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash\r\nflooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Newton","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n900 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016\r\n\r\nNewton has continued to quickly strengthen this evening, with a\r\nragged eye occasionally becoming apparent in infrared satellite\r\npictures.  The eye was confirmed by a recent SSMIS microwave\r\noverpass and the earlier aircraft data.  The Air Force Hurricane\r\nHunter aircraft reported a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 87 kt\r\naround 2300 UTC, which supported the 75 kt intensity on the\r\nintermediate public advisory.  Given the increase in organization\r\nsince that time, the initial wind speed has been increased to 80 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  Newton is forecast to remain in a very low shear\r\nenvironment and over warm water during the next 12 hours, which\r\nshould lead to continued intensification before the center reaches\r\nthe coast of the southern Baja California peninsula Tuesday\r\nmorning.  Weakening is expected while system moves over the\r\nthe Baja California peninsula, but given the fast forward speed,\r\nNewton could remain at or near hurricane strength until final\r\nlandfall in mainland Mexico in about 36 hours.\r\n\r\nNewton is moving northwestward or 325/14 kt.  The hurricane will be\r\nmoving around the western periphery of a ridge over the southern\r\nUnited States.  This should cause a north-northwestward to\r\nnorthward motion that will bring the hurricane into northwestern\r\nMexico in about 36 hours.  The track guidance is very tightly\r\npacked, and the NHC track is near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii were expanded outward based on data from the earlier\r\naircraft mission.  The updated track and intensity forecast\r\nrequired the government of Mexico to issue new warnings and watches\r\nfor Baja California and mainland Mexico.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0300Z 21.3N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  06/1200Z 23.3N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  07/0000Z 26.1N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  07/1200Z 29.2N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  08/0000Z 32.1N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Newton","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n300 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016\r\n\r\nNewton's intensity appears to have leveled off based on little\r\nchange in the ragged 45-nmi diameter mid- to upper-level eye noted\r\nin conventional and microwave satellite imagery. Now that the eye\r\nis interacting with the mountainous terrain of Baja California\r\nSur, gradual weakening should begin. However, since Newton's wind\r\nfield is much larger than that of a typical hurricane, slower\r\nweakening is expected and Newton is forecast to still be a\r\nhurricane when it makes a second landfall along the northwestern\r\ncoast of mainland Mexico in 24-30 hours. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF\r\nmodels show Newton losing no strength at all before the next\r\nlandfall occurs. After moving inland over northwestern Mexico,\r\nNewton is forecast to rapidly weaken due to interaction with the\r\nhigh terrain of the Sierra Madre Occidental mountains. The official\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and is above\r\nthe intensity consensus model IVCN, close to a blend of the SHIPS\r\nand LGEM models.\r\n\r\nNewton is now moving north-northwestward or 335/15 kt based on\r\nmicrowave satellite fixes. The center of the large eye of Newton is\r\ncurrently moving over or very near Cabo San Lucas, with most of the\r\nsouthern tip of the Baja California peninsula now inside the eye.\r\nThe hurricane is forecast to move steadily around the western\r\nperiphery of a strong deep-layer ridge currently located over the\r\nsouth-central United States and northwestern Mexico. This stable\r\nsteering pattern will result in Newton turning northward later\r\ntoday, and then turning toward the north-northeast or northeast\r\ntonight and on Wednesday, bringing the center of the hurricane near\r\nthe northwestern coast of Mexico Wednesday morning. The NHC track\r\nguidance remains tightly packed, and the new official track forecast\r\nis essentially just an extension of the previous advisory track, and\r\nlies near the GFS-ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nSince Newton is forecast to remain a hurricane until the second\r\nlandfall occurs, the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane\r\nwarning for a portion of mainland Mexico. Although Newton is\r\nexpected to degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern\r\nUnited States by 48 hours, deep moisture ahead of the cyclone will\r\nresult in heavy rains that can produce flash flooding and mudslides.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/0900Z 22.8N 109.9W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR CABO SAN LUCAS\r\n 12H  06/1800Z 24.7N 110.9W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/0600Z 27.7N 111.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  07/1800Z 30.9N 111.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  08/0600Z 33.4N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Newton","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n900 AM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016\r\n\r\nNewton's satellite appearance has begun to deteriorate.  The\r\ncyclone's cloud pattern is characterized by a ragged eye, which has\r\nbeen filling, and breaks in the western eyewall.  Deep convection\r\nwithin the central dense overcast (CDO) is asymmetrically\r\ndistributed, and cloud top temperatures within the CDO have begun\r\nto warm significantly. Dvorak T-numbers have decreased to T4.5/77\r\nkt and T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, and the initial\r\nintensity estimate is lowered to 70 kt, a blend of these values.\r\nThe center of Newton is expected to traverse the rugged terrain of\r\nBaja California Sur today, and its interaction with land should\r\nresult in steady weakening.  After the center emerges in the Gulf of\r\nCalifornia late this afternoon or evening, it is not expected to\r\nspend much time over water before making a second landfall in\r\nnorthwestern Mexico early Wednesday.  With an increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear forecast around that time, either a steady\r\nintensity or slow weakening is likely prior to the second landfall.\r\nOnce Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico, the low- to\r\nmid-level centers are likely to separate when the circulation passes\r\nover the Sierra Madre Occidental, and rapid weakening is forecast.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is reduced some compared to the previous\r\none, and is near or just above the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 325/17.  Newton is being steered\r\naround the western periphery of a mid-level ridge over the United\r\nStates lower Mississippi Valley but should turn northward tonight as\r\nit become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a trough\r\nof low pressure lifting out over the western United States.  The\r\nnorthward motion should continue through dissipation well inland\r\nover northwestern Mexico or southeastern Arizona.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is virtually the same as the previous one but just a little\r\nfaster, and is near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nNewton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend\r\nwell away from the center.  These hazards will affect a large\r\nportion of Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico during the\r\nnext day or so.  Moisture associated the remnants of Newton are\r\nlikely to cause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts\r\nof Arizona and New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/1500Z 24.1N 111.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  07/0000Z 26.5N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  07/1200Z 29.7N 111.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  08/0000Z 32.8N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Newton","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n300 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Newton has continued to decay since the last\r\nadvisory, with a continued warming of the cloud tops near the\r\ncenter.  There has been no data close enough to the center to help\r\ndetermine the intensity, so based on a satellite intensity estimate\r\nfrom TAFB and the observed decay the intensity is reduced to a\r\npossibly generous 65 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 345/16.  Newton is being steered around the\r\nwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over the lower Mississippi\r\nValley of the United States.  It should turn northward later\r\ntonight as it become embedded in the flow between the ridge and a\r\nmid- to upper-level trough over the western United States.  The\r\nnorthward motion should continue through dissipation well inland.\r\nThe new forecast track is again similar to, but slightly faster\r\nthan, the previous track and lies near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is expected as the center of Newton\r\ncrosses portions of Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California\r\nduring the next 12 hours, and the cyclone is forecast to be a\r\nhurricane at landfall in northwestern mainland Mexico. Weakening\r\nis expected after landfall, and the circulation of Newton is\r\nexpected to dissipate over Arizona and New Mexico between 36-48\r\nhours.  The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one,\r\nand it indicates that Newton could reach southeastern Arizona\r\nbefore weakening below tropical-storm strength.\r\n\r\nNewton continues to be a large tropical cyclone, and hazards extend\r\nwell away from the center.  These hazards will affect a large\r\nportion of Baja California Sur, northwestern Mexico, and\r\nsoutheastern Arizona during the next day or so.  Moisture associated\r\nwith the remnants of Newton are likely to cause heavy rains and\r\nlocalized flash flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico\r\nWednesday and Thursday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  06/2100Z 25.8N 111.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  07/0600Z 28.2N 111.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  07/1800Z 31.5N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  08/0600Z 34.2N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Newton","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n900 PM MDT TUE SEP 06 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Newton has not changed much since the previous\r\nadvisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 65\r\nkt, with the strongest winds likely found east of the center over\r\nthe Gulf of California.  Little change in intensity is forecast\r\nbefore Newton moves inland over northwestern Mexico early Wednesday.\r\nRapid weakening is expected after that time, but Newton could still\r\nreach southeastern Arizona as a tropical storm on Wednesday.\r\nNewton's surface circulation is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 350/15.  Newton is positioned between\r\na mid-level ridge centered over the south-central United States and\r\na mid- to upper-level trough moving into the western United States.\r\nNewton should move northward and then north-northeastward under the\r\ninfluence of these steering features through dissipation.  The new\r\nNHC Track forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to\r\nthe multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nNewton is a large tropical cyclone with hazards extending well away\r\nfrom the center, and these hazards will affect portions of\r\nnorthwestern Mexico and southeastern Arizona during the next day or\r\nso.  Moisture associated with the remnants of Newton are likely to\r\ncause heavy rains and localized flash flooding over parts of Arizona\r\nand New Mexico Wednesday and Thursday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0300Z 27.3N 112.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1200Z 29.8N 111.8W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  08/0000Z 32.7N 110.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Newton","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n300 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images and surface observations indicate that the center\r\nhas made landfall in mainland Mexico a short distance southeast\r\nof Bahia Kino.  The overall cloud pattern has deteriorated somewhat,\r\nwith an erosion of deep convection over the northwestern quadrant of\r\nthe circulation, and subjective and objective Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates are below hurricane strength.  Therefore the system has\r\nbeen downgraded to a 60-kt tropical storm.  With the center moving\r\ninland, rapid weakening will occur, however there is a possibility\r\nthat Newton could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of\r\nextreme southeastern Arizona later today.  The circulation is\r\nexpected to dissipate on Thursday.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is northward, or 010/15 kt.  The latest NHC track\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous one.  Newton should\r\ngradually curve to the northeast as it moves between the western\r\nperiphery of a mid-level high and a broad trough to the north.  The\r\nofficial forecast follows the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will\r\nbe spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New Mexico\r\nover the next day or so.  These rains could cause flooding and mud\r\nslides.  Consult statements from you local weather offices for\r\npossible warnings.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/0900Z 28.7N 111.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  07/1800Z 31.4N 111.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  08/0600Z 33.5N 108.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Newton","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n900 AM MDT WED SEP 07 2016\r\n\r\nEven after landfall, Newton has been producing a noteworthy burst\r\nof deep convection that will be moving into southeastern Arizona\r\nvery soon.  However, the low-level center is becoming partially\r\nexposed to the south and southwest of the convection due to almost\r\n30 kt of shear.  The maximum winds are reduced to 45 kt based on a\r\nsteady decay rate, but without observations this estimate is quite\r\nuncertain.  For what it's worth, the NWS WSR-88D from Tucson,\r\nArizona, is showing 50-kt winds at an elevation of 10,000 ft, so an\r\nintensity between 40-45 kt seems reasonable.\r\n\r\nNewton has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion of\r\n015/16 kt.  This motion is expected to continue for the next 12-24\r\nhours before Newton dissipates.  After that time, Newton's remnants\r\ncould turn eastward and move into southern New Mexico and western\r\nTexas.\r\n\r\nBased on the decay rate shown by the intensity models, Newton could\r\nstill move into Arizona as a tropical storm this afternoon, but it\r\nis expected to weaken to a tropical depression by this evening.\r\nRegardless of Newton's exact intensity, it is important to remember\r\nthat wind speeds on the tops of hills and mountains could be higher\r\nthan the surface wind speeds indicated in the forecast.  The rugged\r\nterrain should cause the cyclone to dissipate overnight.\r\n\r\nThe main concern with this system will be heavy rainfall that will\r\ncontinue spreading from northwestern Mexico into Arizona and New\r\nMexico over the next day or so.  These rains could cause flooding\r\nand mud slides.  Consult statements from you local weather offices\r\nfor possible flash flood warnings.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/1500Z 30.2N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  08/0000Z 32.4N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  08/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Newton","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP152016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016\r\n300 PM MDT WED SEP 07 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough moderate rainfall is still occurring over portions of\r\nsouthern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico, infrared satellite\r\nimagery indicates that Newton is no longer producing organized deep\r\nconvection.  In addition, there have been no surface reports of\r\nsustained tropical-storm-force winds, and NWS WSR-88D radar data\r\nfrom Tucson, Arizona, are only showing maximum winds of about 35 kt\r\nat an elevation of 4000 feet.  Therefore, Newton is being declared a\r\npost-tropical remnant low with maximum winds of 30 kt.  Based on the\r\ndata available to us at this time, we do not think that Newton moved\r\ninto southern Arizona as a tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nThere have been some adjustments to the center position based on\r\nvisible imagery, but the initial motion still appears to be 015/16\r\nkt.  The remnant low, or the remnants of Newton, are expected to\r\nturn northeastward during the next 12 hours before dissipation.\r\nWind speeds will continue to decrease the rest of today and tonight,\r\nand the low-level circulation is likely to open up near the\r\nArizona/New Mexico border by tomorrow morning.\r\n\r\nHeavy rainfall, with the potential for flash flooding, will continue\r\nover portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico\r\nthrough tonight.  Consult statements from your local National\r\nWeather Service office for possible flash flood warnings.  The\r\nWeather Prediction Center will continue to issue advisories on\r\nNewton or its remnants as long as it poses a heavy rainfall and\r\nflash flooding threat to the southwestern United States.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  07/2100Z 31.6N 111.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  08/0600Z 32.9N 109.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n900 PM MDT SAT SEP 10 2016\r\n\r\nThe area of low pressure southwest of Mexico has become better\r\norganized during the last several hours.  Earlier ASCAT data\r\nindicated that the low had a well-defined center, and the latest\r\ninfrared images show enough organized deep convection in a band in\r\nthe northwestern quadrant declare this system a tropical depression.\r\nThe initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with the TAFB\r\nsatellite estimate.  This is the earliest 16th tropical cyclone\r\nformation in the eastern Pacific since 1992.\r\n\r\nThe depression is forecast to be in an environment of light shear,\r\nwarm waters and a humid mid-level atmosphere for at least a few\r\ndays.  There are no obvious reasons why this cyclone would not\r\nintensify, other than a somewhat broad initial wind structure, and\r\nguidance is in fairly good agreement on at least gradual\r\nstrengthening for the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nnear or slightly above the intensity guidance after 24 hours, and\r\nthis forecast could turn out to be conservative, especially in a few\r\ndays, if the system develops an inner core.  The long range\r\nintensity is leveled off due to the uncertainty of what latitude the\r\ncyclone will be located at after day 3, which is pretty critical in\r\nthat portion of the eastern Pacific due to the tight SST gradient.\r\n\r\nAn uncertain estimate of initial motion is 310/10.  The depression\r\nis likely to move generally northwestward for the next couple of\r\ndays around a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico.  A weakness in\r\nthe ridge near 120-125 degrees west should cause the cyclone to turn\r\nnorth-northwestward and decelerate as it enters weaker steering\r\ncurrents near the ridge axis.  The weakness is forecast to fill in\r\nby all the models on days 4 and 5, and this restrengthened ridge\r\nwould steer the cyclone generally westward at a faster forward speed\r\nnear the end of the forecast period.  Overall, the models agree on\r\nthe synoptic scenario, albeit with some timing disagreements.  The\r\nNHC forecast track is close to the model consensus, which has been\r\nan excellent guidance tool to smooth through the along and cross\r\ntrack model differences so far in the 2016 eastern Pacific season.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0300Z 13.9N 114.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 14.9N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 16.0N 118.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 16.9N 119.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 17.7N 120.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 18.9N 120.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 19.1N 122.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 19.0N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016\r\n\r\nThere has been an impressive increase in the organization of the\r\ndepression's cloud pattern since the last advisory.  An ASCAT pass\r\nindicates that the low-level center is located just inside what\r\nappears to be a formative central dense overcast (CDO), whose cloud\r\ntop temperatures have cooled significantly.  A well-developed\r\nconvective band also spirals outward from the CDO, now covering much\r\nof the western semicircle of the circulation. The earlier ASCAT pass\r\nshowed peak uncontaminated winds of 32 kt.  Given this datum, a\r\nsatellite classification of T2.5 from TAFB, and some further\r\nincrease in organization since the time of the pass, the initial\r\nintensity estimate is increased to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of Orlene's initial motion estimate is 315/11.\r\nThe cyclone should move west-northwestward to northwestward around\r\nthe southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge over northern\r\nMexico today. In 24 to 48 hours, Orlene's forward motion should\r\ndecrease significantly when the cyclone encounters a weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge between 120W and 125W, caused by a southward\r\nextension of a mid- to upper-level trough near the United States\r\nWest Coast.  A further reduction in forward speed and a turn toward\r\nthe north-northwest is expected by 72 hours, and Orlene could even\r\ncome to a halt in the face of weak steering around this time. There\r\nis widespread agreement in the guidance that the subtropical ridge\r\nwill re-establish itself north of Orlene in about 4 days, which\r\nshould result in a westward or possibly a west-southwestward motion\r\nwith an increase in forward speed.  Overall, little change was made\r\nto the previous forecast track, and the current one is close to a\r\nconsensus based on the ECMWF and GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nEast-northeasterly shear currently over Orlene is forecast to\r\ndiminish during the next couple of days while the cyclone moves\r\nover warm waters.  Steady strengthening is expected, even though the\r\nmid-level moisture will be only marginally favorable and SSTs will\r\nbegin to gradually lower.  If Orlene can quickly establish an inner\r\ncore, the result could be greater intensification than this\r\nforecast predicts.  The intensity forecast becomes challenging after\r\n48 hours since Orlene should be straddling the 26.5-deg C isotherm\r\nfor the remainder of the forecast period while the environmental\r\nmoisture becomes critically low.  There could also be some temporary\r\nincrease in southwesterly shear.  The combination of these factors\r\nshould result in a steady-state or slowly weakening cyclone from\r\n72-120 hours.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the\r\nprevious one, near the multi-model consensus, but lower than the\r\nSHIPS and FSU Superensemble output.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 14.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 15.8N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 16.8N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 17.6N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 18.2N 120.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 19.1N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 19.1N 123.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  16/0600Z 18.8N 127.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016\r\n\r\nA central dense overcast has become established over Orlene's\r\ncenter, with very cold temperatures of -86C at cloud top level.\r\nThere is little to no deep-layer shear, and the cyclone has very\r\ngood upper-level outflow, especially to the north and west.\r\nBecause the Dvorak rules don't yet allow the use of an embedded\r\ncenter pattern, estimates from TAFB and SAB are still at T2.5.\r\nHowever, the objective UW-CIMSS ADT is higher, and given the more\r\nconsolidated structure compared to six hours ago, the initial\r\nintensity is raised to 40 kt.\r\n\r\nOrlene is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, to the southwest of a\r\nmid-tropospheric high located over northern Mexico.  Over the next\r\nfew days, Orlene is expected to become trapped in an environment of\r\nweak steering to the west of the subtropical ridge axis and south\r\nof an amplifying trough over California.  This should cause the\r\ncyclone to turn north-northwestward and slow to a crawl by days 2\r\nand 3.  After that time, a re-establishment of the ridge should\r\nforce an acceleration toward the west on days 4 and 5.  There is\r\nnot much spread among the track models during the entire forecast\r\nperiod.  Except for a slight northeastward shift at 36 and 48\r\nhours, the updated NHC forecast is nearly identical to the previous\r\none and lies closest to the TVCX multi-model consensus and Florida\r\nState Superensemble.\r\n\r\nLow shear and warm sea surface temperatures are expected to support\r\nadditional strengthening, and there are signs that rapid\r\nintensification could occur.  There is a 1-in-3 chance of a 30-kt\r\nintensity increase during the next 24 hours, and several intensity\r\nmodels bring Orlene near or to hurricane strength in about 24\r\nhours.  Given the seemingly favorable environment, the NHC\r\nintensity forecast is closest to the most aggressive intensity\r\nmodels like the Florida State Superensemble, and it is higher than\r\nthe previous forecast during the first 48 hours.  Orlene's\r\nintensity could be limited once it slows down in 48-72 hours due to\r\nupwelling of colder water, and thus the official forecast shows\r\ngradual weakening after day 2.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 15.4N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 16.2N 118.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 17.1N 119.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 17.9N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 19.1N 120.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  16/1200Z 18.5N 128.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016\r\n\r\nVisible, infrared, and microwave satellite images indicate that\r\nOrlene continues to become more organized.  The cyclone has\r\nwell-defined curved bands, and a recent SSMIS image showed that it\r\nhas a mid-level eye feature.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are\r\nnow T3.0/45 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT is up to T3.5/55 kt.\r\nHowever, ASCAT data only showed maximum winds of 35-40 kt.  Given\r\nthis wide range, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt for this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nSatellite data indicate that Orlene's center is a little bit\r\nnortheast of the previous estimates, and the initial motion is now\r\n310/12 kt.  There are no changes to the forecast track reasoning.\r\nOrlene should turn northwestward and then northward and slow down\r\ndrastically during the next 48 hours when it becomes positioned to\r\nthe west of the subtropical ridge axis, and south of an amplifying\r\ntrough over California.  After 48 hours, the ridge will gradually\r\nrestrengthen to the north of Orlene, forcing it toward the west with\r\nan increase in forward speed through the end of the forecast period.\r\n The official track forecast has been shifted a little northeast of\r\nthe previous forecast to account for the repositioning of Orlene's\r\ncenter, but otherwise it still closely follows the TVCX multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nGiven Orlene's improved structure, as well as favorable sea surface\r\ntemperatures and low shear, rapid intensification still looks like a\r\npossibility.  The SHIPS guidance continues to indicate a 1-in-3\r\nchance of a 30-kt increase during the next 24 hours, and the raw\r\nguidance itself brings Orlene to a hurricane in about 24 hours. The\r\nNHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity close to\r\nthe SHIPS and Florida State Superensemble in about 36 hours, which\r\nis at the top end of the guidance envelope.  After 36 hours,\r\nOrlene's slow motion over sea surface temperatures between 26-27C is\r\nlikely to lead to upwelling of colder water, and the cyclone is\r\nexpected to gradually weaken through the end of the forecast period.\r\nThis new forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 16.3N 117.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 17.0N 118.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 17.9N 119.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 18.6N 119.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  14/1800Z 19.5N 120.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  15/1800Z 19.0N 124.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  16/1800Z 19.0N 129.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 11 2016\r\n\r\nVisible, infrared, and microwave satellite imagery indicate that the\r\ncyclone has continued to become more organized, with a well-defined\r\nlow- to mid-level eye noted in a 2336Z SSMI/S overpass. Orlene now\r\nhas a large, circular CDO along with a symmetrical and expanding\r\nupper-level outflow pattern. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB are a consensus T3.5/55 kt while the objective UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nis 60-65 kt. Given the rather large average eye diameter of about 35\r\nnmi, the initial intensity is set below the ADT values and follows\r\nthe subjective estimate of 55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 305/08 kt based heavily on microwave eye\r\nposition estimates. Although there is some divergence in the models,\r\nthey are good agreement overall on Orlene gradually slowing down\r\nand moving north-northwestward and northward into a break in the\r\nsubtropical ridge during the next 48 hours. After that, the break in\r\nthe ridge along 120W longitude is forecast to fill back in as a\r\nshortwave trough lifts out quickly to the northeast. The\r\nre-strengthening ridge to the north of Orlene is then expected to\r\naccelerate the cyclone on a westward track on days 3-5. The new NHC\r\nforecast track is essentially just an update and extension of the\r\nprevious advisory track, and lies close to a consensus of the\r\nGFS-ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nOrlene is expected to remain in a very low-shear environment for the\r\nnext 72 hours, which typically favors rapid intensification.\r\nHowever, the cyclone is also expected to remain embedded within a\r\nfairly dry mid-level environment with humidity values of 50-55\r\npercent. Given that Orlene has already developed a solid eyewall\r\nstructure, little if any dry air intrusions should be able to\r\npenetrate into the eye in the short term.  Based on the favorable\r\nlow-shear and already impressive outflow pattern, a period of rapid\r\nintensification is forecast to occur for the next 24 hours, followed\r\nby a leveling off in the intensity due to cooler waters and possible\r\ncold upwelling occurring beneath the cyclone. By 48 hours and\r\nbeyond, gradual weakening is expected due to Orlene moving into a\r\nconsiderably drier and more stable environment characterized by\r\nmid-level humidities in the 20- to 30-percent range. The intensity\r\nforecast remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope close\r\nto the LGEM and Florida State Superensemble models, and is just a\r\nlittle higher than the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 16.6N 118.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 17.3N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 18.0N 119.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 18.6N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0000Z 19.2N 121.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0000Z 18.9N 125.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  17/0000Z 18.9N 130.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016\r\n\r\nOrlene continues to strength.  Satellite images indicate that the\r\nrelatively compact tropical cyclone has become better organized\r\nsince the previous advisory with an eye occasionally evident in\r\ninfrared images. Recent microwave data also indicate that the inner\r\ncore of the cyclone is better defined.  Dvorak classifications from\r\nTAFB and SAB were 4.0/65 kt and 4.5/77 kt, respectively, and\r\nautomated values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin are\r\n4.4/75 kt.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is increased\r\nto 70 kt, making Orlene a category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson\r\nHurricane Wind Scale.  Orlene has strengthened at a rapid rate of 35\r\nkt during the past 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving northwestward, or 305 degrees, at 8 kt.  A\r\ntrough over the U.S. Pacific northwest is expected to dig southward\r\nduring the next day or two, causing a significant weakness in the\r\nsubtropical ridge.  This pattern change should cause Orlene to turn\r\nnorthwestward or northward and slow down later today, and the\r\ncyclone will likely come to a crawl in the 24-48-hour time period.\r\nBeyond that time, the trough is expected to lift out allowing\r\nridging to become re-established to the north of the system.  This\r\nshould result in Orlene moving westward at a faster pace. The\r\nmodels are in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track\r\nforecast is largely an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nAdditional strengthening seems likely during the next 24 hours\r\nwhile the hurricane remains over warm water, and in an environment\r\nof low wind shear and relatively moist conditions.  After that\r\ntime, a slow weakening should commence due to decreasing relative\r\nhumidity values and cooler water temperatures, likely aided by\r\ncold water upwelling.  The NHC intensity forecast is near the high\r\nend of the models, in best agreement with the LGEM and Florida\r\nState Superensemble guidance, and is slightly higher than the\r\nprevious one in the short term.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 17.1N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 17.7N 119.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 18.5N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 19.0N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/0600Z 19.2N 120.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/0600Z 19.2N 122.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  16/0600Z 18.9N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  17/0600Z 19.0N 131.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 12 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images and an earlier GMI microwave overpass show\r\na ragged cloud-filled eye with deep convective curved bands in the\r\neastern half of Orlene's circulation.  A blend of the subjective\r\nand objective satellite intensity estimates yield an initial\r\nintensity of 80 kt for this advisory.  Some additional strengthening\r\nis forecast during the next 12-24 hours before Orlene moves into\r\nthe southern extent of a more stable and dry northeastern Pacific\r\nair mass.  Consequently, a gradual weakening trend should commence\r\nat that time.  The official forecast is basically an update of the\r\nprevious advisory and sides with the IVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 320/5kt.\r\nThe cyclone is expected to turn north-northwestward later tonight,\r\nthen more northward on Tuesday, as it moves south of an amplifying\r\nmid- to upper-level trough approaching the west coast of the United\r\nStates.  By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to become\r\nreestablished to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned\r\ntrough lifts northeastward.  This change in the synoptic steering\r\npattern should result in a turn toward the west with an acceleration\r\nin forward motion.\r\n\r\nThe tropical-storm-force wind radii have been adjusted based on an\r\nearlier CIRA AMSU wind estimate.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 17.4N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 18.1N 119.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 18.8N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 19.1N 119.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1200Z 19.3N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1200Z 19.1N 122.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1200Z 18.7N 127.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  17/1200Z 18.7N 131.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016\r\n\r\nOrlene continues to rapidly strengthen, with a remarkable 50 kt\r\nincrease in intensity during the past 24 hours.  Orlene's eye has\r\nwarmed considerably during the past several hours and has become\r\nmore distinct and symmetric in visible imagery.  Additionally,\r\nsurrounding inner core cloud tops have cooled to around -70C.  A\r\nsymmetric upper-level outflow pattern has developed, consistent with\r\nthe low vertical shear environment.  There still appears to be a\r\nwindow of opportunity for some further strengthening during the next\r\n12 hours or so, as indicated by most of the statistical-dynamical\r\nintensity guidance.  Afterward, a weakening trend is expected to\r\ncommence as the Orlene moves into a more stable and drier\r\nthermodynamic environment.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nbased on the IVCN model consensus and is close to the LGEM guidance\r\nbeyond the 48 hour period.\r\n\r\nOrlene is moving more toward the north now, a little sooner than\r\nmodel guidance previously indicated, and the initial motion is\r\nestimated to be 350/5 kt.  This general motion is expected to\r\ncontinue over  the next 24 hours within a weakness in a mid-level\r\nridge created by an amplifying trough over the western portion of\r\nthe United States.  By mid-period, high pressure is forecast to\r\nback westward, to the north of the hurricane as the aforementioned\r\ntrough tracks northeastward.  As a result in this change in the\r\nmid- to upper-level steering flow, Orlene should turn toward the\r\nwest with an acceleration in forward motion.  The new NHC forecast\r\ntrack is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and lies\r\nnear the TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 17.9N 119.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 18.5N 119.3W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 19.1N 119.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  14/1800Z 19.5N 120.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  15/1800Z 19.1N 123.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  16/1800Z 18.8N 128.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n120H  17/1800Z 18.7N 132.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 12 2016\r\n\r\nOrlene's rapid intensification episode has been interrupted.\r\nSatellite imagery indicates some erosion of the cyclone's deep\r\nconvection, primarily over the northeastern quadrant of the\r\ncirculation. The eye has also become cloud-filled and indistinct.\r\nA 2324 UTC SSM/I overpass suggested that an eyewall replacement is\r\nunderway, which could be the reason for the cyclone's somewhat\r\ndegraded satellite appearance. The latest satellite classification\r\nfrom TAFB was T4.5/77kt and the UW-CIMSS ADT is around that value.\r\nA blend of these data with Dvorak CI-numbers yields an initial\r\nintensity estimate of 90 kt.\r\n\r\nOrlene has wobbled a little east of due north during the last\r\nseveral hours, but an estimate of the cyclone's longer-term initial\r\nmotion estimate is 360/05.  The hurricane is about to enter a col\r\nregion, which should result in a northward or north-northwestward\r\ndrift during the next 24 hours or so.  The subtropical ridge is\r\nexpected to re-strengthen in about 2 days, causing Orlene to turn\r\nsouth of due west with a substantial increase in forward speed. By\r\n120 hours, the model spread begins to widen, with the ECMWF farther\r\nnorth and slower compared to the faster and more southern GFS.  This\r\ndifference arises due to the models' handling of a strong mid- to\r\nupper-tropospheric cyclone around 140W.  The ECMWF shows this\r\nfeature farther south and stronger while the GFS maintains the\r\nsubtropical ridge north of Orlene.  The NHC track forecast is not\r\nmuch different than the previous one, but a little slower by day 5\r\nas a result of the increasing track uncertainty.\r\n\r\nWith an eyewall replacement in progress, Orlene should continue to\r\nslowly weaken.  The cyclone will likely not be able to recover\r\neither since it should come to a halt over a region where the\r\noceanic heat content rapidly drops off.  Orlene's slow motion should\r\ninduce significant oceanic upwelling, which could accelerate the\r\nrate of weakening during the next day or two.  After that time,\r\nthe cyclone will encounter an environment of critically low\r\nmoisture, which should promote additional slow weakening.  The new\r\nNHC intensity forecast is reduced relative to the previous one and\r\nis near the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 18.7N 119.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 19.2N 119.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 19.7N 119.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 19.9N 119.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0000Z 19.8N 120.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0000Z 19.3N 125.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0000Z 18.9N 130.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  18/0000Z 19.0N 133.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nRecent microwave images suggest that there has been some erosion of\r\nthe southern portion of the eyewall overnight, and the overall\r\nsatellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to gradually\r\ndegrade.  The eye has become cloud filled in infrared satellite\r\npictures and the convective tops surrounding the eye have warmed\r\novernight.  Despite the recent loss of organization, a blend of the\r\nsubjective and objective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers yields an initial\r\nintensity estimate of 90 kt.  The leveling-off of Orlene's intensity\r\nappears to have been caused by 15-20 kt of south-southwesterly shear\r\nas diagnosed by a UW/CIMSS shear analysis.  The shear conditions are\r\nnot expected to change much today.  Meanwhile, Orlene is forecast to\r\nmove very slowly during the next 36 h, which is likely to cause\r\nupwelling of cooler waters. These conditions are expected to cause\r\ngradual weakening during the next day or so.  After that time, the\r\nshear is expected to decrease, but less favorable thermodynamic\r\nconditions are likely to continue to contribute to weakening. The\r\nnew NHC intensity forecast shows a little more weakening during the\r\nnext 2-3 days, but is close to the previous advisory thereafter.\r\nThis is in good agreement with the latest Florida State\r\nSuperensemble and close to the IVCN consensus model.\r\n\r\nIt appears that the hurricane is beginning to slow down as\r\nanticipated, with an estimated initial motion of 360/4 kt.  Orlene\r\nwill be within an area of light steering currents during the next\r\nday or so, and only a slow northward motion is anticipated today.\r\nBy Wednesday, a subtropical ridge to the north of the hurricane is\r\nforecast to strengthen, which should begin to steer Orlene westward\r\nat a faster rate of speed.  Near the end of the forecast period,\r\nthe models begin to diverge, with the latest GFS now taking a\r\nstronger system more poleward, while the ECMWF shows a weaker Orlene\r\nmoving more westward.  Since this is a flip-flop in the models from\r\nthe previous runs, the NHC track maintains the more westward\r\nsolution, and is close to the GFS ensemble mean and the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 19.2N 118.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 19.7N 118.9W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  14/0600Z 20.1N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  14/1800Z 20.2N 119.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  15/0600Z 20.2N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  16/0600Z 19.9N 125.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/0600Z 19.7N 130.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  18/0600Z 20.0N 134.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nOrlene has become less organized during the past several hours.\r\nThe eye has disappeared in infrared satellite imagery, and a recent\r\nmicrowave overpass suggests that the cyclone is now tilted toward\r\nthe north-northeast.  Based on an average of satellite intensity\r\nestimates from SAB, TAFB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus, the\r\ninitial intensity is reduced to 85 kt, and this could be a little\r\ngenerous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 015/4.  Orlene is currently moving into a\r\nbreak in the subtropical ridge caused a mid- to upper-level trough\r\nover California and the adjacent waters.  The dynamical models\r\nforecast the trough to move eastward during the next 24-48 hours,\r\nwith the ridge rebuilding to the north of the tropical cyclone.\r\nThis evolution should produce a slow motion for the next day or so,\r\nfollowed by a turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed\r\nduring most of the balance of the forecast period.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement with this scenario through 96 hours,\r\nwith some divergence at 120 hours on whether Orlene will turn more\r\nnorthward or continue westward.  The new forecast track is similar\r\nto the previous track and lies near the center of the cluster of\r\nconsensus and dynamical models.\r\n\r\nOrlene is experiencing about 15 kt of southwesterly vertical wind\r\nshear, and this is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so.\r\nAfter that time, the dynamical models forecast the shear to\r\ndecrease while the cyclone moves near and parallel to the 26C sea\r\nsurface temperature isotherm.  These conditions, combined with\r\nabundant dry air seen west of the cyclone in microwave imagery,\r\nshould lead to gradual weakening through the forecast period.  The\r\nnew intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast and is\r\nin good agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 19.8N 118.7W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z 20.2N 118.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1200Z 20.3N 119.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0000Z 20.4N 120.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1200Z 20.3N 121.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1200Z 20.0N 131.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  18/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nRecent microwave satellite data, including an ASCAT overpass,\r\nconfirm that Orlene has become tilted with the low-level center\r\ndisplaced to the south of the weak eye present in visible imagery.\r\nBased on an average of subjective and objective satellite\r\nintensity estimates, the initial intensity is reduced to 75 kt.\r\n\r\nThe microwave data indicate that the center of Orlene is farther\r\nsouth than the position on the previous advisory, and the initial\r\nmotion estimate is now 015/2 kt. Orlene is now within a break in\r\nthe subtropical ridge caused a mid- to upper-level trough over\r\nCalifornia and the adjacent waters.  The dynamical models forecast\r\nthe trough to move eastward during the next 24-36 hours, with the\r\nridge rebuilding to the north of the tropical cyclone.  This\r\nevolution should produce a slow motion for the next 12-24 hours,\r\nfollowed by a turn toward the west and an increase in forward speed\r\nduring the remainder of the forecast period.  The track guidance is\r\nin good agreement with this scenario through 96 hours.  After that,\r\nthere remains some spread on whether Orlene will turn more\r\nnorthward, as favored by the GFS, or continue westward as favored by\r\nthe ECMWF. The new forecast track is again similar to the previous\r\ntrack and lies near the center of the cluster of the consensus and\r\ndynamical models.\r\n\r\nOrlene is experiencing 15-20 kt of southwesterly vertical wind\r\nshear, and this is likely to continue for about another 24 hours.\r\nAfter that time, the dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease\r\nwhile the cyclone moves near and parallel to the 26C sea surface\r\ntemperature isotherm.  These conditions, combined with abundant dry\r\nair seen west of the cyclone in water vapor imagery, should lead to\r\ngradual weakening through the forecast period.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is an again an update of the previous forecast, and it lies\r\nnear the upper edge of the envelope of intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/2100Z 19.7N 118.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0600Z 19.9N 118.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  14/1800Z 20.1N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/0600Z 19.9N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  15/1800Z 19.7N 122.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  16/1800Z 19.5N 127.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  17/1800Z 19.5N 132.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  18/1800Z 20.0N 136.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 13 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite imagery indicates that the inner-core convection\r\nof Orlene has steadily degraded during the past 6 hours, with the\r\neyewall no longer closed. The eye briefly appeared in visible and\r\ninfrared imagery around 0000Z, but is not evident in conventional\r\nsatellite imagery. The initial remains at 75 kt based on consensus\r\nsubjective satellite estimates of T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe microwave and conventioanl satellite data indicate that Orlene\r\nis drifting northward or 360/01 kt. The cyclone is expected to\r\nremain nearly stationary overnight, embedded within a narrow break\r\nin the subtropical ridge. A slow westward motion is expected to\r\nbegin by early Wednesday as a shortwave trough lifts out, allowing\r\nthe ridge to build back in to the north of Orlene in 12-24 hours.\r\nAfter that time, the ridge is forecast to steadily stengthen,\r\nforcing the cyclone on a general westward direction at a much faster\r\nforward speed. The new forecast track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory track, and lies close to the consensus model TVCN and a\r\nbeldn of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions.\r\n\r\nAlthough moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear currently\r\naffecting the cyclone is forecast to decrease to around 5 kt\r\nthroughout the forecast period, the cyclone will also be moving over\r\nnear 26 deg C SSTs and into a very dry and stable airmass. The\r\nresult sould be a gradual erosion of the inner-core convection,\r\ncausing the cyclone to slowly but steadily weaken. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similr to the previous intensity forecast, and\r\nclosley follows the SHIPS and LGEM intensity guidance, which is just\r\na little above the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 20.4N 118.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 20.4N 119.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 20.4N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 20.2N 121.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0000Z 20.1N 123.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0000Z 19.9N 128.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0000Z 19.9N 133.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  19/0000Z 20.8N 137.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nThere has been little change in the structure of Orlene overnight.\r\nRecent microwave data indicate that the center is a little farther\r\nsouth than previously estimated, and it is located near the\r\nsouthern portion of the small central dense overcast.  A blend of\r\nthe latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers results in an initial wind speed\r\nestimate of 70 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nVertical shear over Orlene is forecast to decrease today and remain\r\nvery low during the next several days, however, the tropical\r\ncyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a\r\ndrier and more stable air mass.  These environmental conditions are\r\nexpected to result in gradual weakening of Orlene during the next\r\nseveral days.  The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly lower than\r\nthe previous advisory during the first 24 hours, but is unchanged\r\nthereafter and is in good agreement with the IVCN intensity model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nOrlene has become nearly stationary overnight as it is located\r\nwithin a break in the subtropical ridge.  The ridge is forecast to\r\nre-strengthen during the next couple of days, which should produce a\r\nwest or west-southwestward motion at a faster forward speed.  Late\r\nin the forecast period, a large mid- to upper-level low expected\r\nto be well northeast of the Hawaiian Islands should produce a break\r\nin the subtropical ridge, allowing the cyclone to turn\r\nwest-northwestward.  The track guidance is in much better\r\nagreement than a day ago, and the updated NHC forecast is near\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 20.2N 118.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 20.2N 119.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 20.0N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 19.9N 122.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  16/0600Z 19.8N 124.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  17/0600Z 19.8N 129.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/0600Z 20.1N 134.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  19/0600Z 21.5N 138.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nA combination of conventional and microwave satellite data indicates\r\nthere has been little change in the structure of Orlene since the\r\nlast advisory, with the low-level center still displaced to the\r\nsouth of the upper-level center.  Satellite intensity estimates\r\nfrom SAB and TAFB are unchanged since the last advisory, so the\r\ninitial intensity remains 70 kt.  However, objective estimates\r\nsuggest this could be a bit generous.\r\n\r\nThere is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast.\r\nVertical shear is decreasing over Orlene and it is forecast to\r\nremain low during the next several days.  However, the tropical\r\ncyclone is forecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a\r\ndrier and more stable air mass.  These environmental conditions are\r\nexpected to result in a gradual weakening during the forecast\r\nperiod.  The new NHC intensity forecast is changed little since\r\nthe previous advisory and remains in good agreement with the IVCN\r\nintensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now a westward drift of 270/2.  A faster\r\nmotion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the\r\nnext 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of\r\nthe cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to\r\nupper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing\r\nthe cyclone to turn west-northwestward.  The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to, but a little south of, the previous track in agreement\r\nwith the various consensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 20.1N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 20.0N 120.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 19.8N 121.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.7N 123.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1200Z 19.6N 126.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1200Z 19.5N 131.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1200Z 20.0N 136.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  19/1200Z 21.5N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite signature of Orlene continues to slowly decay, with a\r\nsmall area of cold convection remaining near a cloud-filled eye. The\r\nvarious satellite intensity estimates have decreased since the last\r\nadvisory, and the initial intensity is reduced to a possibly\r\ngenerous 65 kt.\r\n\r\nThere is no change in the philosophy of the intensity forecast.\r\nOrlene is forecast to be in an area of light vertical wind shear for\r\nthe next 3-4 days, after which the shear is forecast to increase\r\nagain.  Even with the favorable shear, the tropical cyclone is\r\nforecast to be over marginally warm SSTs and move into a drier and\r\nmore stable air mass.  These environmental conditions are expected\r\nto result in gradual weakening during the forecast period.  The new\r\nNHC intensity forecast is again changed little since the previous\r\nadvisory and it lies on the low side of the intensity guidance in\r\nbest agreement with the SHIPS model.\r\n\r\nOrlene is moving a little faster toward the west or 270/5.  A faster\r\nmotion toward the west and west-southwest is forecast during the\r\nnext 3-4 days as the subtropical ridge strengthens to the north of\r\nthe cyclone.  Late in the forecast period, a large mid- to\r\nupper-level low expected to be well northeast of the Hawaiian\r\nIslands should produce a break in the subtropical ridge, allowing\r\nthe cyclone to turn west-northwestward.  The forecast guidance had\r\nshifted southward since the last advisory, especially after 48\r\nhours.  Thus, the new forecast track is also shifted southward from\r\n72-120 hours.  However, it still lies north of the center of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 20.2N 119.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 19.9N 120.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 19.8N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 19.7N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  16/1800Z 19.5N 127.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  17/1800Z 19.5N 132.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  18/1800Z 19.5N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  19/1800Z 21.0N 141.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 14 2016\r\n\r\nOrlene's convective signature remains a small, symmetric central\r\ndense overcast with some banding in the northern semicircle.\r\nHowever, the cloud top temperatures have warmed some and the extent\r\nof the cold cloudiness has diminished slightly during the last\r\nseveral hours.  A blend of the TAFB/SAB subjective Dvorak, CIMSS\r\nAdvanced Dvorak, and CIMSS/CIRA AMSU suggest that Orlene has\r\nweakened to a tropical storm with 60 kt as the initial intensity.\r\n\r\nOrlene is situated directly under the upper-level subtropical ridge\r\nand thus is experiencing very low vertical shear.  However, the\r\ntropical storm is expected to ride along the 26C SST contour while\r\nthe not-very-moist environment becomes quite dry during the next\r\nthree days.  In addition, by days four and five, the shear should\r\ngo up substantially as Orlene approaches a mid- to upper-level low.\r\nThe bottom line is that the tropical storm should gradually weaken.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM/SHIPS\r\nstatistical models and the COAMPS dynamical model, and is quite\r\nsimilar to that from the previous advisory.  Perhaps the biggest\r\nuncertainty is when the deep convection will cease.  The forecast\r\nis for that to occur around day five, but it would not be surprising\r\nif this occurred significantly earlier.\r\n\r\nOrlene is moving toward the west-northwest at about 5 kt.  The\r\nsystem is expected to turn toward the west or west-southwest and\r\nmove faster for the next three to four days as mid-level ridging\r\nbuilds to its north.  By day five, Orlene begins responding to the\r\nupper-level low that it approaches by turning toward the\r\nwest-northwest.  The NHC track forecast is slightly south of the\r\nprevious advisory and is based upon the tightly clustered members of\r\nthe multi-model TVCN consensus technique.\r\n\r\nA 0119Z AMSU pass allowed a modification of the 34 and 50 kt\r\nwind radii to be more asymmetric.  The NHC wind radii forecast is\r\nbased upon the multi-model RVCN consensus technique and is slightly\r\nsmaller than that from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 20.4N 120.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 20.2N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0000Z 20.0N 123.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1200Z 19.7N 125.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0000Z 19.6N 128.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0000Z 19.5N 133.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0000Z 20.0N 138.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  20/0000Z 21.0N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nOrlene has a quite small, symmetric central dense overcast tonight,\r\nwith a tiny eye occasionally making an appearance. Overall, the\r\nconvective structure has not changed much over the last few hours.\r\nA blend of the TAFB/SAB subjective Dvorak and CIMSS Advanced Dvorak\r\nsuggests that Orlene remains a 60-kt tropical storm.\r\n\r\nOrlene is situated directly under an upper-level subtropical ridge\r\nand thus is experiencing very low vertical shear.  However, the\r\ntropical storm is expected to ride along the 26C SST isotherm while\r\nthe not-very-moist environment becomes quite dry during the next\r\nthree days.  In addition, by days four and five, the shear should go\r\nup substantially as Orlene approaches a mid- to upper-level low. The\r\nbottom line is that the tropical storm should gradually weaken. The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is based upon a now more tightly clustered\r\nset of statistical and dynamical model guidance. Perhaps the biggest\r\nuncertainty is when Orlene's deep convection will cease.  The\r\nforecast is for that to occur around day five, but it would not be\r\nsurprising if this occurred significantly earlier.\r\n\r\nOrlene is moving toward the west at about 6 kt.  The system is\r\nexpected to move toward the west or west-southwest with a faster\r\nforward speed during the next three to four days as mid-level\r\nridging builds to its north.  Around day four or five, Orlene should\r\nbegin responding to the upper-level low that it approaches by\r\nturning toward the west-northwest.  The NHC track forecast is nearly\r\nunchanged and is based upon the tightly clustered members of the\r\nmulti-model TVCN consensus technique.\r\n\r\nA pair of ASCAT scatterometer passes indicate that Orlene has\r\ncontracted some in size for its 34 and 50 kt wind radii. The NHC\r\nwind radii forecast is based upon the multi-model RVCN consensus\r\ntechnique and is slightly smaller than that from the previous\r\nadvisory because of the smaller initial size.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0900Z 20.1N 121.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  15/1800Z 19.9N 122.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  16/0600Z 19.6N 124.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  16/1800Z 19.5N 126.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  17/0600Z 19.5N 129.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  18/0600Z 19.5N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  19/0600Z 20.0N 139.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  20/0600Z 21.0N 143.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nIn spite of the dry air nearby, Orlene has re-intensified into a\r\nhurricane.  The system maintained a small CDO with an embedded\r\neye feature over the past several hours, although recently the eye\r\nhas become less distinct.  Based on the Dvorak data T-numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB the intensity is set, somewhat conservatively, to 70 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  Orlene should remain in a low-shear environment,\r\nbut the continued presence of dry air, with mid-level relative\r\nhumidities less than 30 percent, should cause weakening.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is very similar to the latest SHIPS\r\nguidance.  Based on the recent resurgence of the tropical cyclone,\r\nthe new NHC forecast delays the system's weakening to a remnant low\r\ncompared to the previous advisories.\r\n\r\nThere is fairly high confidence in the center fixes, and the initial\r\nmotion is just south of due west or 260/8 kt.  Over the next few\r\ndays, a zonally oriented mid-level ridge should keep Orlene on a\r\ngeneral westward heading.  Later in the forecast period, a weakness\r\nin the ridge caused by a trough near 140W should induce a gradual\r\nturn toward the west-northwest.  The official track forecast is only\r\na little bit faster than the previous one, and is very close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus, TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 20.1N 122.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 19.7N 123.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 19.5N 125.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 19.5N 128.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 19.5N 130.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 19.6N 135.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 20.2N 140.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 21.0N 143.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Orlene","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nIt appears that Orlene is now responding to the very dry\r\nmid-tropospheric environment.  The eye is no longer apparent on\r\nvisible satellite images, and the CDO is taking on a more ragged\r\nappearance.  The advisory intensity is reduced to 65 kt based on a\r\nblend of Dvorak Final-T and Current Intensity numbers.  Since the\r\ntropical cyclone is expected to continue to move through an\r\nunusually dry air mass, with 700-500 mb relative humidities on the\r\norder of 20-25 percent, weakening should continue during the next\r\nfew days.  The official intensity forecast is similar to the SHIPS\r\nmodel and the intensity model consensus.  It is quite possible that\r\nthe system will weaken more quickly than shown here, as suggested by\r\nthe ECMWF global model prediction.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion, 260/9 kt, is similar to the previous estimate.\r\nThere is not too much change to the previous official track\r\nforecast.  A zonally-oriented mid-level ridge should keep Orlene on\r\na generally westward heading at a somewhat faster forward speed for\r\nthe next few days.  Later in the forecast period, a mid-level low\r\nnear 140W longitude should produce a weakness in the ridge and a\r\nwest-northwestward turn at a slower speed.  The official track\r\nforecast is just a little bit south of the previous one, and close\r\nto the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 19.8N 122.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 19.6N 124.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 19.4N 127.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 19.3N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 19.3N 132.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 19.3N 137.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 19.5N 141.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 20.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 15 2016\r\n\r\nSeveral microwave images have arrived since the previous advisory,\r\nrevealing that the low-level center of Orlene is displaced to the\r\neast of a small area of persistent deep convection.  Dvorak data-T\r\nnumbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT vary greatly, mainly\r\ndue to the sensitivity of the Dvorak technique to the location of\r\nthe low-level center.  The initial intensity has been conservatively\r\nlowered by 10 knots to 55 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak\r\nestimates and an 1823 UTC ASCAT pass.  The ASCAT pass only showed a\r\nmaximum of about 45 kt, so this may still be a little high.\r\n\r\nOrlene continues to move into a very dry and thermodynamically\r\nstable environment, highlighted by a field of stratocumulus clouds\r\nthat wrap around the western half of the tropical storm.  All of\r\nthe intensity guidance continues to indicate that this hostile\r\nenvironment will cause steady weakening.  The intensity forecast has\r\nbeen lowered from the previous advisory, but is a little higher than\r\nthe latest intensity consensus out of respect to the GFS which\r\nshows more gradual weakening.  The GFS and HWRF suggest that the\r\ncyclone will lose all deep convection and become post-tropical\r\nwithin 96 hours, which is reflected in the official forecast.\r\n\r\nAlmost no change has been made to the track forecast, aside from a\r\nslight eastward adjustment of the initial position.  The global\r\nmodels remain in good agreement that the mid-level ridge\r\nlocated to the north of Orlene will steer the tropical storm\r\nwestward over the next three days.  After 72 hours, low-level\r\neasterlies should continue to steer the remnant low generally\r\nwestward at a slightly slower forward speed. The track forecast\r\nremains very close to the multi-model ensemble mean.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 19.7N 123.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 19.5N 125.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 19.4N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 19.3N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 19.3N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 19.3N 137.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 20.0N 142.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0000Z 20.5N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart/Zelinsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Orlene has continued to deteriorate\r\nduring the past six hours.  Cloud-top temperatures have warmed\r\nconsiderably and several microwave passes show that the remaining\r\ndeep convection is limited to the southwest quadrant of the\r\ncirculation.  Although CI numbers remain high due to Dvorak\r\nconstraints, Data-T numbers from TAFB and SAB continue to fall.  In\r\nthe absence of any other data, the initial intensity has been\r\nlowered to 45 kt, based primarily on the substantial degradation of\r\nthe cloud pattern and a blend of the subjective Data-T numbers.\r\n\r\nSeveral dynamical models, most notably the GFS, now forecast a more\r\nrapid demise of Orlene than was previously depicted.  In the case of\r\nthe GFS, this is probably due to a weaker and more realistic\r\ninitialization of the modeled storm at 00 UTC.  The official\r\nforecast therefore shows more rapid weakening than the previous\r\nadvisory and is now very close to the multi-model intensity\r\nconsensus. Orlene is expected to lose all deep convection and become\r\npost-tropical within 3 days, before dissipating entirely by 120 h.\r\n\r\nOrlene has begun to accelerate slightly as expected due to a\r\nstrengthening mid-level ridge to the north.  This ridge will\r\ncontinue to dominate the steering as long as Orlene maintains some\r\nvertical coherence.  A slower forward propagation and slight turn\r\ntoward the northwest is expected once Orlene becomes a remnant low.\r\nThe official track forecast has been shifted slightly to the north,\r\nmainly because the models depict a shallow remnant low sooner in the\r\nforecast period.  The official forecast remains close to the\r\nGFS/ECMWF consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 19.9N 125.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 19.9N 126.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 20.0N 128.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 20.0N 131.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 20.0N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 20.4N 138.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 21.5N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan/Zelinsky\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Orlene has decreased significantly during\r\nthe past six hours, with only a small area of shower activity\r\nremaining southwest of the center.  The initial intensity is\r\nreduced to 40 kt based on various satellite intensity estimates and\r\ncontinuity from the previous advisory.  A combination of marginal\r\nsea surface temperatures and entrainment of very dry air should\r\ncause continued weakening through the forecast period even though\r\nOrlene is in a light vertical shear environment.  The intensity\r\nforecast calls for the cyclone to weaken to a tropical depression\r\nin about 24 hours and degenerate to a remnant low in about 48\r\nhours. If the convection does not return, both of these events could\r\nhappen earlier.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 270/10.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of Orlene should steer it generally westward for 72 hours or\r\nso, followed by a northwestward motion as the remnants approach a\r\nweakness in the ridge.  The new forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious track and close to the tightly clustered dynamical and\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 19.8N 125.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 19.8N 127.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 19.8N 129.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 19.9N 132.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 20.0N 134.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 20.5N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 22.5N 142.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Orlene","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nThe convection associated with Orlene has now dissipated, and the\r\ncyclone is comprised of a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds.  The\r\ninitial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on continuity\r\nfrom the previous advisory.  Unless the the convection returns,\r\nwhich seems unlikely given the very dry air entraining into the\r\ncyclone, Orlene is now expected to weaken to a depression in 12\r\nhours or less and to degenerate to a remnant low in 24 hours or\r\nless.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 270/9.  A low- to mid-level ridge to the\r\nnorth of Orlene should steer it generally westward for 72 hours or\r\nso, followed by a northwestward motion as the remnants approach a\r\nweakness in the ridge.  The new forecast track is similar to the\r\nprevious track and close to the tightly clustered dynamical and\r\nconsensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 19.9N 126.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 19.9N 128.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 19.9N 130.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 19.9N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 20.0N 135.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 21.0N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Orlene","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ORLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162016\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 16 2016\r\n\r\nDeep organized convection has been absent in Orlene for over 18\r\nhours at this point.  Given the expectation of continued hostile\r\nconditions - cool SSTs and a stable, dry atmosphere - convection is\r\nunlikely to resume and Orlene is now considered a post-tropical\r\nremnant low.  Peak winds are estimated to be about 30 kt, assuming\r\na continued spin down of the circulation.  The system should\r\ngradually weaken and open up into a trough in about three days.\r\n\r\nOrlene is moving toward the west at about 8 kt.  The remnant low\r\nshould advect along in the low-level trade wind flow at a somewhat\r\nfaster forward speed until dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 20.1N 127.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 20.1N 129.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 20.0N 131.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 19.9N 134.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 19.9N 136.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  20/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n900 PM MDT SAT SEP 17 2016\r\n\r\nThe broad area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring for\r\nseveral days south of Mexico has finally acquired enough\r\norganization to be classified as a tropical depression with an\r\ninitial intensity of 30 kt.  Microwave data during the day showed\r\nseveral swirls rotating around the larger circulation, but during\r\nthe past couple of hours, satellite images show that a well defined\r\ncenter became embedded within the convection, and it is the one NHC\r\nis currently tracking.\r\n\r\nThe shear is forecast to be light for the next day or so, allowing\r\nthe depression to intensify some. After 48 hours, both an increase\r\nof shear and an encounter with cooler waters should result in\r\nweakening as indicated in the NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest\r\nor 305 degrees at 14 kt. The depression is being steered by a\r\nstrong subtropical high over northern Mexico. In about 36 hours,\r\nthe depression will reach the southwestern edge of the high, and\r\nwill likely turn northward with a decrease in forward speed. The\r\nNHC forecast follows very closely the multi-model consensus TVCN.\r\nThis track keeps the cyclone well removed from the southwest coast\r\nof Mexico.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 16.7N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 17.9N 111.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 19.5N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 21.2N 116.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 23.0N 118.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 26.5N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 28.0N 118.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/0000Z 29.5N 117.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paine","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n300 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nThe system's cloud pattern has very quickly exhibited increased\r\norganization.  A relatively long band with very cold-topped\r\nconvection wraps in toward the low-level center.  The low-level\r\ncenter appears to be located near the eastern end of this band,\r\nsuggesting that some northeasterly shear persists.  A Dvorak\r\nclassification of T2.5 from SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS ADT value of\r\n2.8 are used to raise the initial intensity estimate to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe center location and hence the initial motion are more uncertain\r\nthan normal, especially with no recent microwave passes and after a\r\ncenter reformation yesterday.  The best estimate is 310/12.  Paine\r\nshould be steered generally northwestward around the southwestern\r\nperiphery of a mid-level high over the Rio Grande Valley during the\r\nnext 24 to 36 hours.  After that time, the cyclone is expected to\r\nthen turn north-northwestward and northward when it encounters a\r\nbreak in the ridge caused by a cut-off low retrograding offshore the\r\nCalifornia coast.  The new track forecast is shifted a bit to the\r\nright of the previous one after 12 hours, following the multi-\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nThe shear affecting the cyclone is forecast to reach a relative\r\nminimum today while Paine is still moving over warm waters. This\r\nshould allow the cyclone to intensify at near a climatological rate\r\nof one T-number per day during the next 24 to 36 hours.\r\nSouthwesterly shear should abruptly increase by late Monday in\r\nassociation with the cut-off low around the time Paine crosses the\r\n26-deg isotherm.  This should bring whatever intensification is\r\noccurring to a halt.  Global models show Paine decoupling as the\r\nshear reaches 25-30 kt in 2 to 3 days, while the storm is moving\r\nover 22-24 deg C waters. Paine is thus shown degenerating into a\r\nremnant low in 72 hours, and dissipating before 96 hours.  The NHC\r\nis higher than the previous one out to 36 hours and is about the\r\nsame after that, close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine is expected to be\r\nadvected into extreme southern California and the Desert Southwest\r\nin a couple of days, which could enhance the potential for unusual\r\nSeptember rains across this region.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 17.3N 110.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 18.4N 112.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 20.1N 114.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 21.9N 116.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 23.8N 117.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 27.1N 118.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paine","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n900 AM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nAn AMSR2 image from 0859 UTC revealed that the low-level center of\r\nPaine was displaced somewhat to the east of the earlier estimated\r\ntrack, indicative of easterly shear over the system.  Paine has a\r\nfairly well-defined curved band, with very cold cloud tops, over the\r\nwestern semicircle of the circulation.  Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB remain at 35 kt, and this value will be used for\r\nthe advisory intensity.   The dynamical guidance shows a decrease in\r\nshear over the next 24 hours, so Paine is likely to strengthen into\r\nMonday.  In around 48 hours, SSTs are expected to drop below 24 deg\r\nC, and this should cause significant weakening, and remnant low\r\nstatus seems likely by 72 hours.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous one, and near or above the model consensus.\r\n\r\nBased on the aforementioned microwave image, the track has been\r\nshifted eastward somewhat, and the initial motion estimate is 305/11\r\nkt.  Over the next couple of days, Paine should move around the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered over Texas.  The\r\nofficial forecast track is to the right of the previous one, mainly\r\ndue to the eastward relocation of the center, but lies generally to\r\nthe left of the model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough the cyclone is likely to dissipate before reaching land,\r\ndeep-layer moisture associated with Paine is expected to be advected\r\ninto extreme southeastern California and southwestern Arizona, which\r\ncould enhance the potential for unusual September rains across these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 17.5N 111.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.7N 113.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 20.7N 114.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 22.9N 116.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 24.9N 117.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 28.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paine","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n300 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nPaine has strengthened significantly today, with increasingly better\r\ndefined convective bands wrapping at least 3/4 of the way around\r\nthe circulation.  The intensity is set, perhaps conservatively, to\r\n50 kt which is the average of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.\r\nVertical shear has relaxed, and the tropical cyclone has about 24\r\nhours over warm water.  The official intensity forecast now calls\r\nfor Paine to become a hurricane within that time frame, in close\r\nagreement with the SHIPS guidance.  By tomorrow night, the cyclone\r\nwill be encountering SSTs below 24 deg C, so a weakening trend\r\nshould be underway by that time.  Paine will continue to move over\r\nprogressively cooler waters thereafter, and should decay into a\r\nremnant low in about 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate, 310/12 kt, is not much different than\r\nin the earlier advisory.  The track forecast philosophy has not\r\nchanged.  Paine should move along the southwestern periphery of a\r\nmid-tropospheric high pressure system centered near Texas for the\r\nnext couple of days and remain offshore of the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  In 72 hours, the remnant low is forecast to approach\r\nthe northern portion of the peninsula, but it should dissipate\r\nbefore reaching land.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States\r\nin a couple of days.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in\r\nthese areas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 18.5N 112.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 19.8N 114.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 21.9N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 23.9N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 25.8N 117.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 28.9N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paine","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n900 PM MDT SUN SEP 18 2016\r\n\r\nPaine continues to quickly strengthen this evening.  The convective\r\nbanding has improved, with a mid-level eye feature now apparent in\r\nrecent microwave images.  The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and objective estimates from\r\nUW/CIMSS have climbed to T3.8 or about 60 kt, which is the basis\r\nfor the 60-kt advisory intensity.  Paine is expected to remain in a\r\nlow shear environment through tomorrow morning, while it remains\r\nover SSTs greater than 26C.  This should allow for some additional\r\nstrengthening and Paine is forecast to become a hurricane overnight\r\nor early Monday.  After that time, the tropical cyclone is forecast\r\nto move over progressively cooler waters and into an area of\r\nincreasing southwesterly shear, which should cause rapid weakening.\r\nPaine is forecast to become a remnant low within 72 hours, and\r\ndissipate shortly thereafter.  The NHC intensity forecast is below\r\nthe SHIPS/LGEM statistical guidance, and is closest to the HWRF\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 315/13 kt.  The cyclone is forecast\r\nto move north-northwestward, then northward around the southwestern\r\nand western portions of a mid- to upper-level ridge centered over\r\nnorthern Mexico.  As Paine weakens and become a more shallow\r\nsystem, it should slow down and then dissipate just west of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula in 3 to 4 days.  Some of the dynamical models\r\ntake a stronger system northeastward into Mexico, but given the\r\nhostile atmospheric and thermodynamic conditions west of the Baja\r\npeninsula, this solution seems unlikely at this time.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States\r\nin a couple of days.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in\r\nthese areas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 19.5N 113.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 20.9N 115.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 23.0N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 25.0N 117.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 26.6N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 28.9N 116.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paine","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n300 AM MDT MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nA subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB, ADT intensity\r\nestimates from UW/CIMSS, and the appearance of a faint eye on both\r\nenhanced IR and shortwave IR satellite images indicate that Paine\r\nhas become a hurricane.  The advisory intensity is set at 65 kt in\r\nagreement with the TAFB estimate.  Upper-level outflow is well\r\nestablished over the western portion of the circulation but is\r\nweak to the east.  Even though the vertical shear is expected to\r\nremain low to moderate for the next 24-36 hours, Paine's hurricane\r\nstatus is likely to be short-lived.  The cyclone will begin to\r\ntraverse progressively cooler SSTs later today, and water\r\ntemperatures will drop below 22 deg C within 36 hours.  This should\r\nresult in rapid weakening, and Paine is forecast to degenerate into\r\na remnant low in 48 hours before the center reaches the\r\nnorth-central Baja California peninsula.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate continues to be 315/13 kt.  Paine is\r\nexpected to turn north-northwestward, northward, and eventually\r\nnorth-northeastward while moving along the western periphery of a\r\ndeep-layer anticyclone centered near Texas.  The official track\r\nforecast is slightly faster than the previous one but near to, or a\r\nlittle slower than, the latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe wind radii have been adjusted using data from an ASCAT overpass\r\nat 0430 UTC, which showed a slightly larger system.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the southwestern United States\r\nduring the next day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall\r\npotential in these areas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 20.6N 114.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 22.2N 115.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 24.4N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 26.4N 117.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 28.4N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 30.0N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paine","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nA 1008Z SSMI microwave pass showed that an impressive complete\r\neyewall structure has developed in Paine.  While the eye is not yet\r\napparent in the standard infrared imagery, a transient eye has been\r\nseen in the shortwave infrared pictures.  Subjective Dvorak, ADT,\r\nand AMSU intensity estimates have risen and now range from 65 to 85\r\nkt.  A blend of these give an initial intensity of 75 kt.\r\n\r\nDespite the very rapid intensification observed in Paine - 40 kt in\r\n24 hours - it is likely that the hurricane is at or very near its\r\npeak intensity.  Its forecast track takes it over quite cold water\r\nin just a day at the same time that the southwesterly vertical\r\nshear become moderate to high.  Thus the NHC intensity forecast\r\nshows steady weakening until Paine becomes a remnant low in 48\r\nhours or sooner.  This forecast is based upon a blend of the LGEM\r\nstatistical scheme and the GFDL and COAMPS dynamical models, and is\r\nnearly the same as that from the previous advisory, despite the\r\nhigher initial intensity.\r\n\r\nPaine is moving toward the northwest at 13 kt, as it is being\r\nsteered between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast and an\r\nupper-level cut-off-low to its northwest.  The tropical\r\ncyclone should recurve to the north in about a day and then\r\ndecelerate as it encounters a weak low-level steering flow just west\r\nof northern Baja California.  The NHC track forecast is based upon\r\nthe tightly clustered members of the TVCN multi-model track\r\nconsensus and is slightly faster than the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the\r\nnext day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\nEven though the official forecast does not have Paine making\r\nlandfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough\r\nto the west coast of Baja California that tropical-storm-force winds\r\nare possible.  Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical\r\nStorm Watch for portions of the northwestern Baja California\r\npeninsula.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 22.0N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 23.7N 116.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 26.1N 116.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 28.3N 116.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 29.9N 116.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea/Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paine","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery shows a ragged 20 nm diameter eye\r\nappearing in Paine's central dense overcast.  Infrared imagery does\r\nindicate quite vigorous thunderstorms, but with a somewhat\r\nasymmetric structure with the coldest cloud tops only observed in\r\nthe western semicircle. The slightly stronger initial intensity of\r\n80 kt is a blend of a 77 kt subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and\r\na 90 kt value from ADT.\r\n\r\nGiven that Paine is now traversing sub-26C waters while experiencing\r\nmoderate southwesterly vertical shear, one would expect that it has\r\nreached its peak intensity.  But given this somewhat surprising\r\nhurricane, this is not guaranteed.  As Paine turns toward the north\r\nor north-northeast over the next two days, it will move over even\r\ncolder SSTs, through a stable atmosphere, and into higher shear.\r\nThus the NHC intensity forecast shows a rapid weakening - 35 kt in\r\n24 hours - with Paine becoming a remnant low in 48 hours, or\r\nsooner. This forecast is based upon a blend of the tightly clustered\r\nmembers of the IVCN intensity consensus technique, and is nearly the\r\nsame as that from the previous advisory, despite the higher initial\r\nintensity.\r\n\r\nPaine is moving toward the northwest at 14 kt, steered between a\r\ndeep-layer ridge to its northeast and an upper-level cut-off-low to\r\nits northwest.  The tropical cyclone should recurve to the north in\r\nabout a day and then decelerate as it encounters a weak low-level\r\nsteering flow near northern Baja California.  The NHC track forecast\r\nis between the previous advisory and the TVCN multi-model track\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nA 1658Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that Paine was slightly\r\nlarger in its 34 and 50 kt wind radii than previously indicated.\r\nThe NHC wind radii forecast is based upon a blend of the larger\r\nclimatology/persistence model - DRCL - and the smaller multi-model\r\nconsensus technique - RVCN.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the\r\nnext day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\nEven though the official forecast does not have Paine making\r\nlandfall as a tropical storm, the system will move close enough to\r\nthe west coast of Baja California that tropical-storm-force winds\r\nare increasingly likely.  Thus the Government of Mexico has issued a\r\nTropical Storm Warning for portions of the northwestern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 22.8N 116.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 24.7N 116.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 26.9N 116.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 28.8N 116.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 30.1N 115.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea/Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paine","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 19 2016\r\n\r\nPaine is quickly losing organization this evening.  A very timely\r\n2334 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass shows that the low- and mid-level\r\ncenters are beginning to decouple due to increasingly south-\r\nsouthwesterly shear.  As a result, subjective Dvorak data T-numbers\r\nhave started to decrease, and the initial wind speed has been\r\nreduced to 70 kt for this advisory.  Paine will be moving over much\r\ncooler SSTs and into a higher shear environment during the next day\r\nor so.  This should cause rapid weakening, and Paine is expected to\r\nbecome a tropical storm by early Tuesday, and degenerate into a\r\nremnant low within 36 hours.\r\n\r\nPaine appears to be slowing down, with an initial motion estimate\r\nof 345/11 kt.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from\r\nbefore, with the tropical cyclone moving northward, then north-\r\nnortheastward between a deep-layer ridge to its northeast\r\nand an upper-level low to its northwest.  As Paine weakens and\r\nbecomes a shallow system, it should decelerate when it comes\r\nunder the influence of weaker low-level flow west of the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula.  The track models are in good agreement,\r\nand the NHC foreast is near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the\r\nnext day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 23.8N 116.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 25.3N 117.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 27.3N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 28.7N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 29.6N 115.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paine","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nPaine continues to rapidly lose organization, with a disorganized\r\narea of diminishing deep convection displaced well to the north and\r\nnortheast of the estimated low-level center.  The current intensity\r\nis set at 50 kt which is a blend of Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  The cyclone will continue to move through a very\r\nhostile environment of strong southwesterly shear and SSTs below 22\r\ndeg C.  Continued rapid weakening is forecast, and Paine should be\r\nreduced to a remnant low pressure area by the time it reaches the\r\nnorth-central Baja California peninsula.  Since there is now only a\r\nslight possibility of tropical-storm-force winds reaching the\r\npeninsula, the government of Mexico has downgraded the tropical\r\nstorm warning to a watch.\r\n\r\nBased on microwave fixes, which showed the low-level center to be\r\nlocated on the south-southwestern edge of the main cloud mass, the\r\ninitial motion estimate is 360/11.  Paine or its remnant should\r\ncontinue to move along the western periphery of a mid-level\r\nanticyclone, and ahead of a shortwave trough to its northwest, until\r\ndissipation in a few days.  The official track forecast is mainly a\r\nblend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the\r\nnext day or two.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 24.8N 116.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 26.6N 116.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 28.4N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 29.6N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 30.8N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paine","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nShear and cool waters continue to take a toll on Paine.  The cloud\r\npattern is rapidly losing organization, the the diminishing deep\r\nconvection is displaced well northeast of the estimated low-level\r\ncenter position.  The initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt\r\nbased on the degraded satellite presentation, and this lies between\r\nthe latest Dvorak CI and T-numbers from SAB.  Rapid weakening is\r\nexpected to continue due to more than 20 kt of shear and SSTs\r\ncooling below 22C along the forecast track.  Paine should weaken to\r\na depression by tonight and become a remnant low by 24 hours, before\r\nit reaches the Baja California peninsula.  The remnant low is\r\nforecast to dissipate in 36 to 48 hours, in agreement with the\r\nlatest global model solutions.\r\n\r\nA 0844 UTC AMSR-2 pass from GCOM-W1 was very helpful in locating the\r\ncenter of Paine, which was a little to the west of previous\r\nestimates.  Based on extrapolation from this fix, the initial motion\r\nestimate is due north at 12 kt.  Paine should gradually turn north-\r\nnortheastward in the next 24 hours as it moves around the\r\nnorthwestern side of a mid-level ridge centered over the southern\r\nUnited States, and the increasingly shallow cyclone will lose some\r\nforward speed prior to dissipation.  The new NHC track forecast is a\r\nlittle to the left of the previous one due to the initial position,\r\nand is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the\r\nnext day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 26.1N 117.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 27.7N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 29.2N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paine","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nPaine consists of a well-defined circulation of low-level clouds,\r\nas all of the deep convection dissipated around 10-11Z. The initial\r\nintensity has been set to 30 kt based on a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak Final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Since it is\r\nunlikely that deep convection will return given the continued strong\r\nshear and a track over very cool waters, Paine will likely be\r\ndeclared a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  The remnant low will\r\nslowly spin down during the next day or so and should dissipate over\r\nthe Baja California peninsula in 36 to 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 005/13.  Paine's track should\r\ngradually bend northeastward during the next 24 to 36 hours as it is\r\nsteered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United\r\nStates, and the shallow cyclone will lose some forward speed during\r\nthat time.  The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous\r\none and is again close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with Paine or its remnants is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the\r\nnext day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 27.2N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 28.6N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 29.7N 115.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 30.9N 114.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n 48H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Paine","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP172016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 20 2016\r\n\r\nPaine has become a swirl of low clouds that has been without deep\r\nconvection for more than 12 hours.  Since the cyclone is within\r\nan area of strong southwesterly shear and over very cool SSTs, deep\r\nconvection is not likely to return.  As a result, the system has\r\nbecome a remnant low, and this will be the final NHC advisory on\r\nPaine.  The initial intensity of 30 kt is a blend of the various\r\nsubjective Dvorak T-numbers.  Post-tropical Paine is not expected\r\nto be chronic, since the hostile environment and interaction with\r\nBaja California should gradually relieve Paine of its winds,\r\nresulting in dissipation in about 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 010/10 kt.  Now that the remnant\r\nlow will be steered by the low-level flow it should turn\r\nnorth-northeastward, then northeastward with a reduction in\r\nforward speed.  The new official forecast is near the consensus of\r\nthe GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nDeep-layer moisture associated with the remnants of Paine is\r\nexpected to spread over portions of the northern Baja California\r\npeninsula of Mexico and the southwestern United States during the\r\nnext day or so.  This could enhance the rainfall potential in these\r\nareas.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 28.0N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 29.1N 116.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 30.2N 115.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-25 17:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n1000 AM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the low pressure area located well\r\nsouthwest of the Baja California has become better organized\r\novernight, and early morning visible satellite imagery indicate\r\nthat the circulation has become better defined.  Based on these\r\nobservations, and Dvorak classifications of T2.0 and T1.5 from\r\nTAFB and SAB respectively, advisories are being initiated on a\r\n30-kt tropical depression at this time.  The depression is currently\r\nlocated over warm water and within an area of low vertical wind\r\nshear, which is favorable for some gradual strengthening today.\r\nHowever, in about 24 hours, the tropical cyclone is forecast to move\r\ninto an area of higher southwesterly shear caused by large mid- to\r\nupper-level low and associated trough over northwestern Mexico.  The\r\nglobal models suggest that the shear will become quite strong in 36\r\nto 48 hours as the cyclone begins moving over cooler waters. This\r\nshould result in a rapid spin down, and the system is likely to\r\nbecome a post-tropical remnant low within 3 days.  The official\r\nintensity foreast is slightly above the SHIPS guidance but is in\r\ngood agreement with the intensity consensus.\r\n\r\nSince the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial\r\nmotion is a somewhat uncertain 360/4 kt.  The cyclone is expected to\r\nbe steered slowly northward or north-northeastward during the next\r\ncouple of days around the western portion of a weak mid-level ridge\r\nthat extends southwestward from southern Mexico.  By 72 hours, the\r\nlow should turn northwestward in the low-level steering flow after\r\nit weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system.  Although the\r\nECMWF and GFS models are on opposite sides of the guidance envelope,\r\nthe track models are in general agreement on the overall scenario\r\nand the NHC forecast lies near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1700Z 15.6N 119.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 16.2N 119.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 17.4N 119.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 18.5N 118.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 21.0N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 23.0N 118.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z 24.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe overall organization of the depression has not changed much\r\nsince this morning.  The center is exposed to the north of the main\r\narea of thunderstorm activity, with some banding noted over the\r\nnortheastern quadrant.  Visible imagery shows that there are\r\nseveral smaller swirls rotating around the mean center.  Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates are T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt from\r\nSAB, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe depression is forecast to remain over warm water and to be in a\r\nlow-shear environment during the next 12 to 24 hours, but the large\r\nand sprawling nature of the system suggests that any intensification\r\nshould be slow to occur.  By late Monday, the cyclone will be\r\nmoving into an area of increasing southwesterly shear, and by\r\nTuesday the system will be moving over cooler waters and into\r\na more stable air mass.  These conditions should result in weakening\r\nwithin 48 hours, and the system is expected to become a remnant low\r\nin about 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the\r\nprevious advisory and is once again in best agreement with the IVCN\r\nconsensus model.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving northward or 360/6 kt.  The track forecast\r\nreasoning is unchanged from the previous advisory.  The cyclone\r\nshould move north-northeastward around the western portion of a\r\nweak ridge that extends southwestward from southern Mexico.\r\nAlthough most of the track models agree with this scenario, the\r\nGFS and GFDL take a stronger and deeper cyclone more northeastward,\r\nand northward around the aforementioned upper-level low later in the\r\nperiod.  The NHC track favors the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean\r\nsolutions, which show a weaker and more shallow system turning\r\nnorthwestward well west of the Baja California peninsula. The new\r\nNHC forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 16.1N 119.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 16.8N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 17.4N 119.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 18.2N 118.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 19.1N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 24.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z 25.0N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eighteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-09-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the depression has not changed much during the\r\nlast several hours.  The center of the system is partially exposed\r\non the west side of a convective band.  Satellite images also show\r\na pronounced dry slot to the west and northwest of the center.  The\r\nDvorak classifications remain T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and T1.5/25 kt\r\nfrom SAB, and based on these estimates, the initial wind speed is\r\nheld at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nSome slight strengthening is possible overnight or on Monday while\r\nthe system remains over warm water and in an environment of light to\r\nmoderate shear.  After that time, the environment should become less\r\nconducive with southwesterly shear increasing to more than 20 kt in\r\nabout 24 hours, which will likely end the opportunity for\r\nstrengthening.  The system is forecast to cross the 26-deg-C\r\nisotherm in 36 to 48 hours, and as a result, it should become a\r\nremnant low by day 3.  The global models show the remnant low\r\ndissipating by the end of the forecast period, and that is reflected\r\nin the official forecast.  The new intensity forecast is a little\r\nlower than the previous one and is in good agreement with the latest\r\nintensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe center of the depression has wobbled a bit to the west of the\r\nprevious track, and the current motion estimate is 345/6 kt. A large\r\ncut-off mid- to upper-level low over northwestern Mexico is expected\r\nto drift southwestward during the next day or two.  This should\r\ncause the system to turn north-northeastward to northeastward on\r\nMonday, and continue in that general direction through mid-week.\r\nOnce the system becomes a shallow remnant low, a turn to the\r\nwest-northwest is predicted, following the low-level trade wind\r\nflow.  The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous\r\none, and is in best agreement with the GFS ensemble mean and a\r\nconsensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.7N 120.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.2N 119.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 18.7N 118.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 19.9N 118.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 22.6N 117.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 24.6N 119.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-09-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe sheared cloud pattern in infrared satellite imagery has changed\r\nlittle since the previous advisory. However, a 0304Z SSMI/S pass\r\nindicated the low-level structure had improved markedly, with a\r\nsharp hooked band wrapping more than half around the now\r\nwell-defined low-level circulation center. The initial intensity has\r\nbeen increased to 35 kt based on a Dvorak classification of T2.5/35\r\nkt from TAFB and the improved low-level structure indicated in\r\nSSMI/S 37 GHZ data. This makes Roslyn the seventeenth named storm of\r\nthe 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 020/4 kt. The advisory position had\r\nto be adjusted more than 30 nmi to the east of the previous advisory\r\ntrack based on recent SSMI/S and AMSU microwave center fixes.\r\nOtherwise, the previous track forecast rationale remains unchanged.\r\nA large mid- to upper-level low currently located over the central\r\nBaja California peninsula is expected to continue moving westward to\r\nwest-southwestward during the next day or two. The combined\r\nsouthwesterly flow between that low and a deep-layer ridge located\r\nto the east and southeast of Roslyn should keep the tropical cyclone\r\nmoving slowly north-northeastward to northeastward for the next 48\r\nhours. After that, Roslyn is expected to weaken into a shallow\r\nremnant low, turning northward on day 3 and then northwestward on\r\nday 4. The new NHC track forecast is to the right of the previous\r\nadvisory track, mainly due to the more eastward initial position,\r\nand lies close to the various consensus models.\r\n\r\nLittle if any strengthening is expected due to gradually increasing\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear and a very dry mid-level moisture\r\nregime characterized by humidity values less than 40 percent. By 36\r\nto 48 hours, the vertical shear is forecast to increase to more than\r\n30 kt, which is expected to erode the deep convection and induce\r\nsteady weakening. As a result, Roslyn is forecast to become a\r\nremnant low by 48 hours, but this could occur sooner. The GFS and\r\nECMWF models show the remnant low dissipating by the end of the\r\nforecast period when Roslyn will be moving over sub-24C SSTs.  The\r\nnew intensity forecast is identical to the previous advisory and\r\nclosely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 16.8N 119.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 17.2N 119.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 18.0N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 19.1N 117.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 20.4N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 22.5N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 24.6N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn remains a large, but sheared tropical storm.  An 0847 UTC\r\nAMSR microwave overpass indicates that the low-level center is\r\nlocated well to west of the large area of deep convection, due to\r\nmoderate southwesterly shear.  Dvorak intensity estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB are unchanged from before, so the initial intensity\r\nis kept at 35 kt for this advisory.  The southwesterly shear that\r\nis currently affecting the cyclone is predicted to increase during\r\nthe next 24 hours, which should prevent significant strengthening\r\nwhile Roslyn remains over marginally warm water.  In a little\r\nmore than 24 hours, the tropical storm will be crossing the 26 deg C\r\nisotherm and moving into a more stable air mass, which should begin\r\nthe weakening process.  The NHC forecast shows Roslyn becoming a\r\nremnant low within 48 hours, and dissipating by the end of the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes suggest that Roslyn is moving north-northeastward\r\nor 015/4 kt.  The tropical storm should turn northeastward today in\r\nthe southwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast\r\nand a large mid- to upper-level low over the Baja California\r\npeninsula.  After Roslyn weakens into a shallow remnant low, it\r\nshould turn northward and then northwestward in the low-level flow\r\nwest of the Baja peninsula.  The new NHC track forecast is very\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF,\r\nand GFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 17.0N 119.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 17.5N 119.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 18.5N 118.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 19.7N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 21.0N 117.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 23.2N 118.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 24.5N 119.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016\r\n\r\nCORRECTED STATUS AT 72H\r\n\r\nAlthough the center of Roslyn has become farther separated\r\nfrom the deep convection this afternoon due to strong\r\nsouthwesterly shear, recent ASCAT data indicate that the\r\ntropical cyclone is stronger than previously estimated.  The\r\n1756 UTC ASCAT overpass revealed 40-45 kt winds, and a much\r\nlarger area of 34-kt winds than analyzed earlier.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial intensity has been set at 45 kt, and\r\nthe 34-kt wind radii have been expanded accordingly.\r\n\r\nIncreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and gradually\r\ndecreasing SSTs should cause weakening, but given the large size of\r\nthe system the spindown process is likely to be more gradual than\r\naverage.  In 24 to 36 hours, much cooler waters and a more stable\r\nairmass are expected to cause Roslyn to degenerate into a remnant\r\nlow and to dissipate in 3 to 4 days.  The NHC intensity forecast has\r\nbeen adjusted upward in the early portion of the forecast to account\r\nfor the higher initial intensity, but is unchanged thereafter.  The\r\nofficial forecast shows a slower rate of decay than the SHIPS\r\nguidance, but it is general agreement with the trend in the global\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nRoslyn has not moved much during the past 24 hours, and the best\r\nestimate of the initial motion is 035/2 kt.  The models insist that\r\nRoslyn will begin moving northeastward within deep layer\r\nsouthwesterly flow between a mid-level ridge to the southeast and a\r\nlarge upper-level low over Baja California.  In a couple of days,\r\nthe cyclone should turn northward, then northwestward once it\r\nweakens and is steered by the low-level flow.  The new NHC track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory and is near a consensus of the\r\nECMWF and GFS models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 16.8N 118.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 17.3N 118.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 18.4N 117.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 19.8N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 21.2N 117.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 23.3N 118.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016\r\n\r\nSouthwesterly shear of about 20 kt is currently affecting Roslyn,\r\nand this has caused the associated convection to be confined to the\r\nnorth and northeast portions of the large circulation.  The initial\r\nwind speed is held at 45 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data, but\r\nthe satellite presentation suggests that this could be a little\r\ngenerous.  Weakening is expected to begin soon due to a further\r\nincrease in shear and continued dry air entrainment.  Roslyn will\r\nlikely become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours when it moves over\r\nsea surface temperatures lower than 26 deg C.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is identical to the previous one, and generally follows\r\nthe global model guidance.\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images and microwave data suggest that Roslyn is\r\nmoving east-northeastward at 4 kt.  During the next day or so, the\r\ntropical storm is expected to move northeastward in the flow between\r\na large mid- to upper-level cut off low near the northern Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula and a ridge over central Mexico.  After that\r\ntime, a turn to the north and northwest is expected when the\r\nshallow cyclone becomes influenced by the low-level flow.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is adjusted a little to the east of the previous\r\none, trending toward the latest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 17.2N 118.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 17.9N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 19.1N 117.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 20.5N 116.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 21.7N 117.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 23.5N 118.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn's center appears to be losing some definition in infrared\r\nsatellite imagery, and all of the associated deep convection is\r\ndisplaced to the north and northeast due to strong southwesterly\r\nshear.  Roslyn fell within the nadir gap of the latest ASCAT\r\npasses, but the initial intensity is set at 40 kt based on a\r\ngradual lowering of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.\r\nThis value is also in accordance with the most recent UW-CIMSS\r\nSATCON estimate.  Increasing shear, gradually cooling SSTs, and dry\r\nmid-level air should induce additional weakening, and deep\r\nconvection is likely to dissipate within the next day or two.\r\nThe new NHC intensity forecast shows Roslyn becoming a remnant low\r\nin 36 hours, and it is expected to open up into a trough by day 4.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now northeastward, or 050/6 kt.  Roslyn is\r\nexpected to turn northward toward a deep-layer low located over the\r\nBaja California peninsula during the next 36 hours.  It should then\r\nturn northwestward and west-northwestward on days 2 and 3 after it\r\nhas become a remnant low, steered by lower-level ridging.  The\r\nofficial track forecast has again been nudged east of the previous\r\nadvisory toward the latest TVCN multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 17.8N 117.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 18.7N 117.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 20.0N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 21.3N 116.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 22.3N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 23.5N 119.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn continues to be affected by strong southwesterly shear, with\r\nthe center of the tropical cyclone exposed to the southwest of the\r\nassociated deep convection.  The initial intensity remains 40 kt\r\nfor this advisory, which is an average of Dvorak estimates of\r\n45 kt and 35 kt, from TAFB and SAB, respectively.  Roslyn should\r\nslowly weaken due to increasing southwesterly shear, gradually\r\ndecreasing SSTs, and dry mid-level air that is wrapping around\r\nthe western portion of the circulation.  The updated NHC\r\nintensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and\r\ncalls for Roslyn to become a remnant low in 36 hours, and\r\ndissipate in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nRecent satellite fixes indicate that Roslyn is moving northeastward\r\nor 045/7 kt. The tropical storm is forecast to turn northward by\r\ntonight around the eastern portion of a mid- to upper-level trough\r\nextending southwestward from a large cut-off low over northwestern\r\nMexico.  By late Wednesday, a weaker and more vertically shallow\r\nRoslyn is expected to turn northwestward.  There is more spread in\r\nthe track models this morning, but little change was required\r\nto the NHC forecast which is located near the middle of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 18.3N 117.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 19.3N 116.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 20.6N 116.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.8N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 22.6N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn remains a heavily sheared tropical cyclone.  Satellite\r\nimagery shows that the cyclone's cloud pattern consists of a\r\nplume-shaped burst of deep convection, with the low-level center\r\nremoved to the southwest of the convection due to 25 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly shear.  Dvorak satellite classifications are unchanged\r\nsince earlier, T2.5 from SAB and T3.0 from TAFB.  Thus the initial\r\nintensity remains 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe vertical shear associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric\r\ncyclone over the northern Baja California peninsula is expected to\r\nincrease further over Roslyn during the next 24 hours.  In addition,\r\nSSTs should gradually be decreasing along the cyclone's path while\r\nRoslyn encounters a much drier and more stable air mass.  These\r\nfactors suggest that weakening should commence soon, and it could\r\noccur rather quickly.  Remnant low status is now shown in 24 hours,\r\nwith dissipation by day 3.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a\r\nlittle lower than the previous one, and just below the multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 050/08.  Roslyn should turn\r\nnorthward during the next 12 to 24 hours as it rotates around the\r\nlarge circulation of the cutoff low retrograding into the\r\nnortheastern Pacific southwest of California.  Once the system is\r\nsheared off in about 24 hours, the much shallower remnant low should\r\nturn northwestward before dissipation.  The new track forecast has\r\nbeen shifted some to the right and is close to a blend of the ECMWF\r\nand GFS model solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 18.8N 116.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 19.8N 116.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 21.0N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 22.0N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 22.8N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn is weakening this evening.  Strong southwesterly shear of\r\nnearly 30 kt is affecting the tropical storm, and this has caused\r\nthe associated deep convection to be well removed to the\r\nnorth-northeast of the center.  The initial intensity is\r\nlowered a little to 35 kt, based on the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at\r\nthe University of Wisconsin.  The shear is expected to persist, or\r\neven increase a little, during the next few days.  These hostile\r\nwinds combined with a stable atmosphere and decreasing sea surface\r\ntemperatures should cause additional weakening.  Roslyn will likely\r\nweaken to a depression overnight or on Wednesday and become a\r\nremnant low shortly thereafter when it moves over sea surface\r\ntemperatures below 26 deg C.  The NHC intensity forecast is the same\r\nas the previous one, and generally follows the global model\r\nguidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 040/8 kt.  Roslyn should turn\r\nnorthward soon as it rotates around a large cut off mid- to\r\nupper-level low near the northern Baja California peninsula.  Once\r\nthe cyclone becomes a remnant low, it should turn northwestward in\r\nthe low-level flow before it dissipates in 2 to 3 days.  The\r\nnew NHC track forecast is a little to the east of the previous one,\r\nand lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 19.5N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 20.7N 115.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 21.8N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 22.8N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 23.6N 117.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe last bit of deep convection dissipated just after the release of\r\nthe previous advisory, and all that is left is some shower activity\r\ndisplaced well to the northeast of Roslyn's center due to 30-35 kt\r\nof southwesterly shear.  Recent ASCAT data indicate that the system\r\nis still producing a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in\r\nthe southeastern quadrant, and the initial intensity remains 35 kt.\r\nContinued strong shear and cooler waters should cause the cyclone\r\nto gradually spin down during the next couple of days.  Since it is\r\nunlikely that Roslyn will be able to reproduce organized deep\r\nconvection, the cyclone is expected to degenerate to a remnant low\r\nlater today.  The global models all suggest that the remnant low\r\nwill dissipate by day 3, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is north-northeastward, or 025/8 kt.  Roslyn is\r\nexpected to turn northward later today as it moves around a\r\ndeep-layer trough extending southwestward from southern California.\r\nThe shallow, convection-less remnant low should then turn\r\nnorthwestward and west-northwestward by 48 hours, steered by the\r\nlow-level subtropical ridge.  The new official track closely follows\r\nthe TVCN multi-model consensus, which required an eastward shift\r\nfrom the previous track, primarily during the first 24 hours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 20.2N 115.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 21.2N 115.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 22.2N 116.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 23.0N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 23.2N 117.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn has been weakening.  Deep convection associated with the\r\ncyclone dissipated late yesterday, and only a few puffs of new\r\nconvection have redeveloped but are well removed to the northeast of\r\nthe center.  A TAFB Dvorak CI of 2.0 is used to lower the initial\r\nintensity to 30 kt, and assumes some spin-down of the vortex since\r\nthe overnight ASCAT pass that showed 35-kt winds.  With\r\nsouthwesterly shear of around 30 kt, increasing atmospheric\r\nstability and an extremely dry environment, and much cooler waters\r\nalong the path of the cyclone, further weakening is likely.  Roslyn\r\nis expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today, and the\r\ncurrent intensity forecast is in good agreement with the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 035/09, though the shorter-term\r\nmotion may be a bit more to the left.  To the extent that Roslyn\r\nremains a coupled cyclone, the motion should gradually turn\r\nnorthward today around a cut-off low well southwest of the\r\nCalifornia coast.  A turn toward the northwest is expected once the\r\ncyclone become a shallower feature, and its motion is governed by\r\nthe low-level flow.  The track forecast is essentially an update of\r\nthe previous one and is close to a multi-model consensus without\r\nthe GFDL model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 21.0N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 21.9N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 22.9N 116.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 23.4N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 23.6N 117.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn has developed a new burst of convection to the north of the\r\nexposed low-level center, and this is sufficient to keep the\r\ncyclone from degenerating to a remnant low.  Recent ASCAT data show\r\nwinds near 30 kt in the northwestern quadrant, so the initial\r\nintensity is unchanged from the previous advisory.  A combination of\r\ndecreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track,\r\nabundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery, and 30-35 kt of shear\r\nshould cause Roslyn to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 hours or\r\nless.  The latest dynamical models show the remnant low dissipating\r\ncompletely by 48 hours, and this is now reflected in the intensity\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 360/6.  Roslyn should turn northwestward\r\nand then west-northwestward before dissipation as the weakening\r\ncyclone become increasingly steered by a low-level ridge to the\r\nnorth.  The new track forecast is essentially an update of the\r\nprevious forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 21.6N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 22.4N 115.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 23.0N 116.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 23.3N 117.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nA small area of deep convection continues to fire to the north of\r\nthe center of the cyclone, with little change in Roslyn during the\r\npast several hours.  The initial wind speed is held at 30 kt in\r\naccordance with the past ASCAT data.  The cyclone should move over\r\nprogressively cooler water in a strongly sheared and dry\r\nenvironment.  Thus, weakening should occur, and the new forecast is\r\nan update of the previous one, showing Roslyn decaying to a remnant\r\nlow in 12 hours.\r\n\r\nThe depression continues moving northward, now at 6 kt.  Roslyn\r\nshould turn northwestward and then westward before dissipation in\r\nabout 2 days while the shallow cyclone becomes increasingly\r\nsteered by a low-level ridge to the north.  The new track forecast\r\nis a little slower than and south of the previous one since the\r\nlatest guidance has trended in that direction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 22.1N 115.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 22.8N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 23.2N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 23.2N 116.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection dissipated well northeast of Roslyn's center around\r\n0300 UTC, and the cyclone is now a convection-less swirl of low\r\nclouds.  Partial ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicated that\r\nmaximum winds were near 25 kt, and that is set as the advisory\r\nintensity.  Deep convection is unlikely to re-develop due to very\r\nstrong shear, cooling sea surface temperatures, and a dry\r\nenvironment, and Roslyn will probably be declared a remnant low\r\nlater today.  The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 36 hours,\r\nwhich is shown by all the global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt.  Now that\r\nRoslyn is a shallow system, it should turn west-northwestward\r\nduring the next 24 hours, steered by a low-level ridge to its\r\nnorth.  The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the latest\r\nconsensus aids, and it is a little north of the previous forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 22.7N 115.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 23.4N 115.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 23.8N 116.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Roslyn","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP182016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ROSLYN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182016\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nRoslyn has been devoid of deep convection overnight, and the system\r\nconsists of only a swirl of low clouds.  Given the lack of\r\nconvection, Roslyn has become a post-tropical remnant low.  The\r\ninitial intensity is kept at 25 kt based on continuity from earlier\r\nscatterometer data.  The cyclone should spin down over cool waters\r\nand completely dissipate after 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe motion is north-northwestward or 345/6 kt.  A weak low-level\r\nridge to the north and northwest of the system should cause a turn\r\ntoward the northwest and west-northwest until dissipation.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Roslyn.  For additional information on\r\nthe remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the\r\nNational Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header\r\nFZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 23.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 24.1N 116.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nineteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-09-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 26 2016\r\n\r\nScatterometer data from around 0600 UTC indicated that the area of\r\nlow pressure located near 140W had a well-defined circulation, with\r\npeak reliable wind vectors of 28 kt.  Deep convection associated\r\nwith this system has since become much better organized.  Satellite\r\nclassifications are T2.0 and T2.5, and the low is designated as a\r\ntropical depression based on these satellite data.\r\n\r\nLight northwesterly shear, warm waters of around 28 deg C and an\r\nincreasingly diffluent flow aloft over the cyclone support\r\nintensification during the next 2 to 3 days.  The large divergence\r\nexpected over the depression is related to a mid-level cyclone seen\r\nin water vapor imagery near 18N 140W that is forecast to retrograde.\r\nThe only negative factor is marginal mid-level moisture that\r\nis forecast to decrease further.  Once the system gains sufficient\r\nlatitude after 72 hours, it is likely to become vulnerable to much\r\nstronger westerly flow aloft.  In fact, with 30 to 40 kt of westerly\r\nshear forecast over the cyclone by day 4, rapid weakening should\r\noccur, and the system is forecast to be a remnant low by that time.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the statistical and\r\ndynamical guidance through 72 hours and is below both sets of output\r\nafter that time.\r\n\r\nThe low was moving just south of due west during the last 24 hours,\r\nbut appears to have recently turned toward the northwest.  Given\r\nthe sudden change in heading, the initial motion estimate of 305/04\r\nis rather uncertain.  Global models show the cyclone turning\r\nnorthward within 24 hours and then moving north-northeastward after\r\nthat for the next few days while it rotates around the mid-level\r\nlow to the northwest of the cyclone.  Once the cyclone weakens\r\nappreciably after 72 hours, a turn toward the west is likely when\r\nthe remnant low is steered by the trade wind flow.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is a left of the multi-model consensus, close to a\r\nconsensus without the GFDL model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 11.6N 139.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 12.0N 139.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 12.8N 139.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 13.6N 138.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 14.4N 138.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 16.1N 138.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 17.2N 139.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1200Z 17.3N 142.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-09-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E\r\nDISCUSSION NUMBER   2...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192016\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 26 2016\r\n\r\nCORRECTED NINETEEN TO NINETEEN-E\r\n\r\nThe depression's cloud pattern is a little less organized than it\r\nwas earlier today.  Visible satellite imagery shows the low-level\r\ncenter near the western edge of a small mass of deep convection\r\nwhose convective tops have warmed, presumably due to some\r\nnorthwesterly shear. Dvorak satellite classifications are T2.0 and\r\nT2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively.  The initial intensity\r\nestimate is held at 30 kt, on the lower end of these values.\r\n\r\nThe large-scale factors influencing the intensity of the depression\r\nover the next few days are less conducive than previously assessed.\r\nEven though the cyclone will be moving over waters around 28 deg C\r\nand will encounter an increasingly diffluent flow aloft, some west-\r\nnorthwesterly shear is forecast to persist.  A marginally moist\r\nenvironment surrounding the tropical cyclone is also forecast to\r\ndry further.  The NHC intensity forecast is reduced some over the\r\nprevious one in line with the current guidance and much below the\r\ndynamical guidance.  Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in 3 to\r\n4 days, westerly shear of 30 to 40 kt is expected to reduce the\r\nsystem to a remnant low.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone's heading has been more westerly than previously\r\nestimated, and a longer-term average of satellite fixes yields an\r\ninitial motion estimate of 285/05.  Global models show the cyclone\r\nturning abruptly northward within the next 24 hours and then north-\r\nnortheastward as it rotates around a mid-tropospheric cyclone slowly\r\nretrograding near 18N 140W.  When the cyclone decouples in 3 to 4\r\ndays, a turn toward the west is likely as the remnant low is steered\r\nby the low-level trade wind flow.  The new track forecast is shifted\r\ntoward the left of the previous track because of the more westerly\r\ninitial motion and lies well west of the multi-model consensus,\r\nclosest to the leftmost ECMWF model.\r\n\r\nThe next advisory will be issued issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 11.6N 140.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 12.3N 140.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 13.0N 140.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 13.9N 139.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 15.0N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 16.3N 139.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 17.1N 141.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z 17.2N 144.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ulika","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016\r\n\r\nUlika has become a little better organized during the past several\r\nhours with the formation of a ragged central dense overcast in\r\nvisible imagery and the continued presence of an eye in GPM data\r\nnear 1530 UTC.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are\r\n55 kt and 45 kt respectively, and based on these data the initial\r\nintensity is raised to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 045/4.  Ulika is currently being steered by a\r\nmid- to upper-level low seen in water vapor imagery near 18N 143W.\r\nThe dynamical models forecast this feature to move westward to\r\nnorthwestward during the next 48 hours or so.  This should allow\r\nthe subtropical ridge to rebuild east and north of Ulika, which in\r\nturn should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and\r\nnorthwestward.  After that time, Ulika should be steered more\r\nwestward by the low-level trade winds as it weakens.  The new\r\nforecast track is similar to the previous track and lies near the\r\ncenter of the track guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nUlika is currently experiencing 15-20 kt of northwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear.  This shear should abate somewhat during the next 24\r\nhours or so while the cyclone remains over warm sea surface\r\ntemperatures.  Based on these expected conditions, the intensity\r\nforecast calls for continued slow strengthening. Subsequently, Ulika\r\nis forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear which should\r\npersist through the end of the forecast period.  All of the guidance\r\nforecast weakening with dissipation near or just after 120 hours,\r\nand the intensity forecast follows this scenario.  The new intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous forecast with a slightly\r\nhigher peak intensity, and overall it is in best agreement with the\r\nintensity consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 12.7N 139.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 13.5N 139.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 14.5N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 15.4N 139.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 16.1N 139.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 17.0N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  01/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/1800Z 17.5N 149.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ulika","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 27 2016\r\n\r\nUlika continues to maintain a small but well organized central dense\r\novercast.  Geostationary satellite images indicate that the inner\r\ncore of the cyclone has become a little better organized during the\r\nlast several hours, and there are some hints of an eye feature in\r\nthe imagery.  An ASCAT-B pass from several hours ago revealed\r\nmaximum winds in the 50 to 55 kt range.  Based on that data and a\r\nDvorak classification from TAFB, the initial wind speed is increased\r\nto 55 kt.  Ulika is expected to remain in generally favorable\r\nenvironmental conditions for another 12 to 24 hours, and the system\r\ncould be near hurricane strength overnight and early Wednesday.\r\nBeyond that time, a significant increase in southwesterly or\r\nwesterly shear should cause a steady weakening trend.  Ulika is\r\nforecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days, but some of the\r\nmodels suggest that the system could open up into a trough by then.\r\nThis intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one.\r\n\r\nUlika is moving northeastward at about 6 kt on the east side of a\r\nmid- to upper-level low.  The upper low is expected to move slowly\r\nwestward, which should cause the storm to turn northward on\r\nWednesday and northwestward on Thursday.  After that time, Ulika\r\nis expected to become a shallow cyclone, and it will likely turn\r\nwest-northwestward or westward in the low-level trade wind flow.\r\nThe models are in fair agreement on this overall scenario, and only\r\na small shift to the right was made in the new NHC track forecast.\r\nThis prediction is in best agreement with the latest consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 13.3N 139.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 14.2N 138.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 15.1N 138.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 15.9N 139.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 16.5N 139.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0000Z 17.5N 142.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0000Z 17.7N 146.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0000Z 17.9N 150.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Ulika","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nUlika has continued to improve in organization, and recent microwave\r\ndata have shown that the cyclone has maintained a well-defined eye\r\nin the 89-GHz channel during the past few hours.  Hints of an eye\r\nhave also been observed in shortwave infrared imagery, embedded\r\nwithin a compact central dense overcast.  Subjective satellite\r\nintensity estimates have risen to T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.0/55\r\nkt from SAB, and the objective ADT from UW-CIMSS is even higher\r\naround 75 kt.  A couple of CIMSS AMSU intensity estimates also\r\nprovided values of 60-65 kt several hours ago.  Based on these\r\ndata, Ulika is upgraded to a hurricane with 65-kt winds, and this\r\ncould be conservative.\r\n\r\nUlika has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours, which in\r\nhindsight was probably helped by the cyclone's small wind field and\r\nradius of maximum winds.  Vertical shear is expected to remain low\r\nfor another 12 hours or so, which could allow Ulika to intensify\r\nsome more in the short term.  By 24 hours, however, southwesterly\r\nto westerly vertical shear is forecast to increase markedly,\r\nexceeding 30 kt in a couple of days.  Given Ulika's small size, the\r\ncyclone will be particularly sensitive to the increase in shear,\r\nand its intensity is likely to decrease quickly.  Ulika is expected\r\nto become a remnant low by day 4 and then dissipate southeast of\r\nthe Hawaiian Islands by day 5.  The NHC intensity forecast is very\r\nclose to the intensity consensus for the entire forecast period, and\r\nis higher than the previous forecast during the first 36 hours to\r\naccount for Ulika's recent intensification trend.\r\n\r\nA mid- to upper-level low northwest of Ulika is steering the\r\nhurricane north-northeastward, or 030/6 kt.  Ulika is expected to\r\nturn northward and northwestward around this feature during the next\r\ncouple of days.  After it becomes a weaker system, it should then\r\ncome under greater influence from the low-level trades, turning\r\nwest-northwestward and westward on days 3 and 4.  With the\r\nexception of the GFDL, which is well north of the rest of the\r\nguidance suite, all of the track models are tightly clustered\r\nduring the forecast period.  The NHC track forecast is therefore\r\nclose to the various consensus aids and not too different from\r\nthe previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 13.9N 139.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 14.7N 138.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 15.6N 139.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 16.4N 139.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 17.0N 140.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  01/0600Z 17.7N 143.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  02/0600Z 17.7N 147.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ulika","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nUlika was maintaining a small central dense overcast (CDO), with the\r\ncenter well embedded within this convective mass overnight.  Since\r\nthen, the cloud pattern has undergone considerable degradation.  The\r\nCDO has become much less distinct, to the point that it has no\r\nlonger become discernible.  The deep convection in the former CDO\r\nhas also decreased in coverage and cloud top temperatures have\r\nwarmed substantially.  TAFB and SAB provided a satellite\r\nclassifications of T4.0 and T2.5 at 1200 UTC, respectively.  Since\r\nthat time, the cyclone's cloud pattern has further degraded, and the\r\ninitial intensity is lowered to a possibly generous 60 kt.\r\n\r\nUlika's environment already appears to have become much less\r\nfavorable.  West-southwesterly to southwesterly shear is only likely\r\nto increase as the cyclone gains latitude during the next couple of\r\ndays.  In fact, the SHIPS model output indicates more than 30 kt of\r\nshear by 36 hours.  This, combined with a marginally moist\r\nenvironment and an increasingly convergent flow aloft, means that\r\nsteady weakening is most likely.  Global models show Ulika being\r\nsheared apart in about 2 days, with the mid-level center racing\r\nnortheastward away from the low-level center.  Rapid weakening\r\nshould occur by then, if it has not begun already, and remnant low\r\nstatus is forecast in 72 hours.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nlowered relative to the previous one, and is near or below the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 030/06.  Ulika should turn northward soon,\r\nas it rotates around a nearly stationary mid-tropospheric low seen\r\nin water vapor imagery around 17N 143W.  Once the system decouples\r\nfully, the shallower cyclone's motion will be governed by the\r\nlow-level trade wind flow and turn westward with an increase in\r\nforward speed.  The new track forecast is a little to the right of\r\nthe previous one through 24 hours and then is very similar, with\r\nthe new forecast close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 14.5N 138.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 15.3N 138.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 16.0N 139.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 16.7N 140.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1200Z 17.3N 141.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  01/1200Z 17.5N 144.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1200Z 17.5N 148.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ulika","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nUlika's cloud pattern consists of a small area of deep convection\r\nnear the estimated center, with limited or no banding features.\r\nThe current intensity estimate has been reduced to 50 kt which is a\r\nblend of Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Vertical shear,\r\nmainly due to westerly upper-level flow associated with a broad\r\ntrough over the east-central Pacific, is predicted by the global\r\nmodels to increase substantially over the next couple of days.\r\nThis, along with dry mid-tropospheric air, should cause steady\r\nweakening and Ulika is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical\r\nremnant low in 48 hours or less.\r\n\r\nUlika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is\r\nnow estimated to be 010/6.  As long as it maintains some vertical\r\ndepth, the small circulation of the tropical cyclone should\r\ncontinue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level low to its\r\nwest.  Assuming that the system becomes a shallow cyclone in 36 to\r\n48 hours, it should move generally westward in the low-level flow\r\nby that time.  The official forecast is very similar to the\r\nprevious one and lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/2100Z 15.1N 138.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  29/0600Z 16.0N 138.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  29/1800Z 16.9N 139.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  30/0600Z 17.4N 140.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  30/1800Z 17.6N 141.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/1800Z 17.7N 144.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  02/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch/Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ulika","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 28 2016\r\n\r\nSouthwesterly shear continues to take a toll on Ulika.  The cloud\r\npattern of the tropical cyclone is elongated from west-southwest to\r\neast-northeast, with only bursts of convection present.  The\r\ninitial wind speed is conservatively reduced to 45 kt, a blend of\r\nthe Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  A large mid/upper-level\r\ntrough over the central Pacific is forecast to remain nearly\r\nstationary, which should cause a further increase in shear.  Dry air\r\naloft should also help choke off the convection, and Ulika is\r\nforecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 hours.  The\r\nintensity forecast is near an average of the previous interpolated\r\nofficial forecast and the intensity consensus.  The intensity\r\nforecast is a bit higher than the previous one at long range due to\r\nthe strong trade wind environment the cyclone is forecast to be\r\nembedded within.\r\n\r\nUlika is turning gradually to the left, and the initial motion is\r\nnow estimated to be 360/6.  The small tropical cyclone should\r\ncontinue to rotate counter-clockwise around a mid-level trough to\r\nits west until it becomes a shallow cyclone in about 24 to 36\r\nhours. Thereafter, it is forecast to move westward in the low-level\r\nflow until dissipation.  Most of the model guidance was a bit faster\r\nand farther to the north, so the NHC track prediction is adjusted in\r\nthat direction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0300Z 15.8N 138.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1200Z 16.5N 139.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0000Z 17.3N 139.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/0000Z 18.0N 142.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0000Z 18.0N 146.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ulika","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nDespite about 25 kt of west-southwesterly shear, a burst of deep\r\nconvection which developed around 0100 UTC has persisted, and\r\nDvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB increased to T3.5/55 kt\r\nand T2.0/30 kt, respectively.  Based on these numbers, the initial\r\nintensity is held at 45 kt.  Vertical shear is expected to turn\r\nwesterly and increase to between 30 and 50 kt during the next couple\r\nof days.  Given Ulika's small size, it will be no match for this\r\ntype of shear and should therefore weaken very quickly.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast decays the system very similarly to what is\r\nshown by the LGEM model.  Based on the latest global model fields,\r\nUlika is likely to dissipate by day 3, if not sooner.\r\n\r\nUlika has turned north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt, around the\r\neastern side of a mid-level low located near 19N144W.  The cyclone\r\nis expected to continue turning counterclockwise around this\r\nfeature today and tonight, and it should then be moving westward by\r\nFriday when it is steered by lower-level trade wind flow.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is a little west and south of the\r\nprevious forecast, but that is primarily due to an adjustment of\r\nthe initial position.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/0900Z 16.0N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  29/1800Z 16.7N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/0600Z 17.4N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  30/1800Z 17.6N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Ulika","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP192016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016\r\n\r\nUlika's cloud pattern continues to have a sheared appearance this\r\nmorning, with only a small area of bursting deep convection to the\r\neast of the estimated low-level center location.  The initial\r\nintensity is set at 40 kt, which is a blend of Dvorak estimates from\r\nSAB and TAFB.  A very hostile dynamic environment lies ahead of\r\nUlika, with westerly shear forecast to increase to 40-50 kt in 36\r\nhours.  Given such unfavorable conditions, the system should\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low by the weekend, or sooner.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has turned toward the northwest, and the initial motion\r\nis estimated to be around 320/6 kt.  The flow on the southern side\r\nof a weak low- to mid-level ridge should cause Ulika to turn toward\r\nthe west-northwest and then west over the next couple of days.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks\r\nand only a little bit north of the previous NHC forecast.\r\n\r\nThe next advisory on Ulika will be issued by the Central Pacific\r\nHurricane Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  29/1500Z 16.7N 139.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  30/0000Z 17.3N 140.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  30/1200Z 17.8N 141.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  01/0000Z 18.0N 143.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  01/1200Z 18.0N 145.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  02/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n400 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016\r\n\r\nConventional and microwave satellite data indicate that deep\r\nconvection associated with the low pressure area located south of\r\nMexico has become much better organized overnight.  A fortuitous\r\n0526 UTC GPM microwave overpass revealed a significant increase in\r\nbanding and was also very helpful in determining the center\r\nlocation.  Based on these data, and an earlier partial ASCAT pass\r\nwhich indicated that the circulation had become sufficiently well\r\ndefined, advisories are being initiated on the twentieth tropical\r\ndepression of the 2016 eastern North Pacific hurricane season.  The\r\ninitial intensity has been set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with\r\nDvorak T-numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe depression is forecast to move over SSTs of 29-30 degrees\r\nCelsius and remain in an area of vertical shear of around 10 kt or\r\nless during the next 2 to 3 days, which should allow for\r\nsteady strengthening.  Despite these seemingly favorable\r\nconditions, the global and regional hurricane models show much less\r\nstrengthening than the statistical SHIPS/LGEM guidance which show a\r\npeak intensity of around 70-75 kt in about 3 days.  Given the\r\nexpected favorable conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is above\r\nthe dynamical guidance and model consensus, but is lower than the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM.  Late in the forecast period, cooler SSTs and\r\nincreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear are expected to weaken\r\nthe cyclone.\r\n\r\nSince the depression is still in the formative stage, the initial\r\nmotion is a somewhat uncertain 290/14.  A strong mid- to upper-\r\nlevel ridge that is forecast to shift westward over the Baja\r\nCalifornia peninsula should steer the cyclone west-northwestward\r\nduring the next several days.  By day 4, the cyclone is forecast\r\nto turn northwestward when it approaches the western periphery of\r\nthe ridge.  The track guidance is in good agreement on this overall\r\nscenario, but there are some differences in the forward speed of the\r\ncyclone and exactly when the northwestward turn will materialize.\r\nThe NHC forecast track is slightly faster than the model consensus\r\nand is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 13.1N 103.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 13.8N 105.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 14.7N 107.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 15.4N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 16.1N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 17.0N 117.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z 18.8N 120.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twenty-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough the depression is producing a considerable amount of deep\r\nconvection, the cloud pattern is highly stretched from\r\nnorth-northeast to south-southwest.  Microwave images from earlier\r\nthis morning indicate that the low-level structure of the system is\r\nwell organized despite the elongated appearance in geostationary\r\nsatellite images.  The initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nA band of strong upper-level south-southwesterly winds lies just to\r\nthe north of the cyclone, and they could be contributing to its\r\naforementioned appearance in satellite images.  The global models\r\nare in agreement in showing the upper-level wind environment\r\nbecoming more favorable for strengthening during the next few days.\r\nThe expected low wind shear combined with warm water and high\r\nhumidity values suggest that steady strengthening is likely\r\nduring the next 72 hours.  After that time, a notable increase in\r\nsouthwesterly shear and cooler waters should end the strengthening\r\ntrend and cause weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast shows a\r\nslightly higher peak intensity than the previous one, but it is\r\nlower than the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt.  A continued\r\nwest-northwestward motion with a decrease in forward speed is\r\nexpected during the next few days while the cyclone moves along the\r\nsouthwestern periphery of a high pressure system located over\r\nMexico.  By the end of the forecast period, a deep-layer low is\r\nforecast to erode the ridge and should cause the cyclone to slow\r\ndown even more and turn northwestward.  The NHC track forecast is\r\nvery close to the multi-model consensus TVCN for the next 4 days,\r\nbut lies to the left of that aid at 120 h in favor of the ECMWF\r\nmodel.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 13.5N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 14.1N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 14.9N 108.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 15.6N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 16.1N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 17.3N 117.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z 19.3N 120.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 21.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Seymour","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n400 PM CDT SUN OCT 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has become better organized during the last several\r\nhours.  Visible satellite images suggest that an inner core is\r\nforming, with a few curved bands surrounding this central\r\nconvection. The latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB are\r\n2.5/35 kt, and automated values from CIMSS at the University of\r\nWisconsin are slightly higher.  In addition, an ASCAT pass around\r\n1600 UTC showed maximum winds in the 30 to 35 kt range.  Based on\r\nthese data, the initial wind speed is increased to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThe global models are in agreement that Seymour should remain in\r\na favorable upper-level wind pattern during the next few days.\r\nThese light upper-level winds, combined with very warm water and\r\nhigh mid-level moisture values should allow Seymour to steadily, or\r\nperhaps rapidly, strengthen during the next 72 hours. Beyond that\r\ntime, a significant increase in southwesterly shear, cooler waters,\r\nand a decrease in moisture should end the strengthening trend and\r\ninduce weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the\r\nprevious one, and is near the middle of the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt.  A\r\nmid-level ridge over Mexico should continue to steer Seymour\r\nwest-northwestward at a slightly slower pace during the next few\r\ndays.  After that time, the ridge is likely to erode as a deep-\r\nlayer low pressure moves eastward toward California.  This pattern\r\nchange will likely cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then\r\nnorthward in 4 to 5 days.   The models have shifted considerably to\r\nthe right at the longer range points, and the new NHC track forecast\r\nhas been adjusted in that direction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 13.9N 105.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 14.5N 107.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 15.2N 110.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 15.8N 112.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  26/1800Z 17.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z 20.8N 121.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 23.1N 120.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Seymour","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n900 PM MDT SUN OCT 23 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour's convective pattern has continued to improve since the\r\nprevious advisory, with the development of a mid-level eye feature\r\nnoted in 23/2250Z and 24/0107Z SSMI/S microwave images. Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB are T3.0/45 kt and T3.5/55 kt,\r\nrespectively, and T3.6/57 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial\r\nintensity is set on the low side of these estimates at 45 kt for\r\nthis advisory, which could be conservative.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/13 kt. For the next 72 h, the\r\nglobal models remain in excellent agreement on Seymour moving\r\nwest-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer\r\nridge located over Mexico. After that, the cyclone is expected to\r\nturn northward around the western portion of the ridge and ahead of\r\na shortwave trough forecast to approach Seymour from the northwest\r\nby late Wednesday. The official forecast track lies basically down\r\nthe middle of the guidance envelope, close to the multi-model\r\nconsensus TVCN.\r\n\r\nThe global and regional models indicate environmental conditions are\r\nforecast to be quite favorable for additional strengthening to occur\r\nduring the next 3 days. In fact, due to a combination of the\r\nvertical shear being low at around 5 kt, mid-level humidity values\r\nbeing near 70 percent, sea-surface temperatures expected to be at\r\nleast 29 deg C, and the recent development of a mid-level eye, a\r\nperiod of rapid intensification is forecast to occur for the next\r\n24 hours. This trend is supported by the SHIPS and LGEM statistical\r\nintensity models, and also by the HWRF model and the new NOAA\r\nCorrected Consensus Model, HCCA, which makes Seymour a major\r\nhurricane by 48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, increasing\r\nsouthwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of the aforementioned\r\nshortwave trough and SSTs less than 25 deg C and are expected to\r\ninduce rapid weakening. The new intensity forecast lies close to a\r\nblend of the SHIPS and LGEM models, which is significantly higher\r\nthan the previous advisory, but remains well below the peak\r\nintensity forecast of 110 kt by HCCA and the 112-kt forecast from\r\nthe HWRF model.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 14.4N 107.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 14.9N 109.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 15.6N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 16.1N 114.4W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 16.7N 116.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z 18.7N 120.2W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z 22.0N 120.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Seymour","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n300 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour continues to strengthen this morning.  Satellite data\r\nindicate that the banding features have continued to improve\r\nand a small central dense overcast feature has developed and\r\nbecome more symmetric.  Although earlier microwave imagery revealed\r\na mid-level eye feature, there has been no recent microwave data to\r\ndiagnose the structure of the inner core. Subjective and objective\r\nDvorak intensity estimates have increased to 55 and 65 kt,\r\nrespectively, and as a result the initial intensity has been\r\nraised to 55 kt.\r\n\r\nSeymour continues to move west-northwestward at about 13 kt.\r\nThere has been no change to the track forecast reasoning from\r\nthe previous advisory.  Seymour should continue moving\r\nwest-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge that\r\nextends westward from Mexico.  In a couple of days, the cyclone\r\nwill approach the western portion of the ridge and Seymour should\r\nrespond by turning northwestward.  After 72 hours, an approaching\r\nshortwave trough should steer Seymour northward, then northeastward.\r\nThe model guidance is in good agreement through the first 3 days,\r\nbut after that time there is more spread in the track models this\r\ncycle.  The ECMWF and UKMET models have trended faster and take\r\nSeymour much farther north at 96 h and 120 h than the remainder of\r\nthe guidance.  Since Seymour is expected to rapidly weaken and\r\nbecome an increasingly shallow system, the NHC forecast leans toward\r\nthe slower and more southern solutions late in the forecast period.\r\n\r\nSeymour is forecast to traverse very warm water and remain within\r\nan environment of low vertical wind shear and high mid-level\r\nmoisture during the next day or two.  These conditions should allow\r\nthe cyclone to quickly strengthen during the next 24 to 36 hours and\r\nlike the previous advisory, the new NHC intensity forecast calls for\r\nrapid strengthening during the next 24 hours.  In fact, the SHIPS\r\nRapid Intensification Index gives a 78 percent chance of a 30 kt or\r\nmore increase in wind speed during the next 24 hours. The updated\r\nNHC intensity forecast now shows a peak intensity of 100 kt in 48\r\nhours, which is slightly below the LGEM, FSSE, and NOAA corrected\r\nconsensus (HCCA) models.  After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly\r\nshear and cooler SSTs are expected to cause a rapid spin down of the\r\ntropical cyclone.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 14.9N 108.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 15.4N 110.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 16.0N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 16.4N 115.6W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z 17.0N 117.9W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z 19.6N 121.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 23.0N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 24.5N 120.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n900 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour's cloud pattern continues to increase in organization.\r\nThe cyclone's small central dense overcast has become circular and\r\nincreasingly symmetric since the last advisory, with plenty of\r\ncold-topped deep convection, particularly near the center.  Dvorak\r\nsatellite classifications were T3.5/55 kt and T4.0/65 kt at 1200\r\nUTC, while UW-CIMSS ADT values were around T4.5.  Since that time,\r\nthe cloud pattern has continued to exhibit greater organization.\r\nThus, the initial intensity is raised to 65 kt, toward the higher\r\nend of the subjective estimates.\r\n\r\nFor the next 36 hours or so, Seymour should be embedded in a nearly\r\nideal environment for intensification, characterized by low vertical\r\nwind shear, warm waters, strong upper-level divergence and a\r\nsufficiently moist atmosphere.  SHIPS model output continues to\r\nindicate the likelihood of rapid intensification during the next\r\n24 hours, and so does the official forecast.  Around 48 hours,\r\nsouthwesterly shear associated with a vigorous trough northwest of\r\nSeymour should begin to increase and induce weakening.  The shear\r\nshould become prohibitively high in 3 to 4 days and result in rapid\r\nweakening, and then a decoupling of the cyclone toward the end of\r\nthe forecast period. Remnant low status is predicted in 5 days, but\r\nit very likely could be sooner.  The NHC intensity forecast is\r\nlargely an update of the previous one and is slightly above the\r\nmulti-model consensus, close to the FSU Superensemble and the NOAA\r\ncorrected consensus model, HCCA.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/13.  Seymour is being steered west-\r\nnorthwestward on the south side of deep-layer ridge near the\r\nsouthern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  When the cyclone\r\nreaches the western edge of this ridge in about 2 days, it should\r\nencounter the flow associated with the deep-layer trough upstream\r\nof Seymour.  This should result in a decrease in forward speed while\r\nthe cyclone's heading turns northwestward and then sharply\r\nnorthward.  Once a completely shallow system, Seymour or its\r\nremnants should turn north-northeast and lose its identity well west\r\nof the Baja California peninsula.  The new track forecast has been\r\nadjusted westward in response to a shift of the guidance in that\r\ndirection, but not as far left as the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 15.2N 109.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 15.8N 111.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 16.2N 114.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0000Z 16.6N 116.9W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z 17.4N 119.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 23.9N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n300 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016\r\n\r\nCORRECTED 120H STATUS\r\n\r\nSeymour is rapidly intensifying.  A pinhole eye has formed within a\r\nsmall, nearly symmetric, central dense overcast (CDO) during the\r\nlast several hours.  In addition, a long curved band coils inward\r\ntoward the center with a dry slot between it and the CDO.  Dvorak\r\nclassifications are T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and the latest\r\nUW-CIMSS ADT value is T4.7/82 kt.  A blend of these is used to raise\r\nthe initial intensity estimate to 80 kt.\r\n\r\nSeymour has another 24 hours to strengthen under nearly ideal\r\nenvironmental conditions, consisting of low vertical wind shear,\r\nwarm waters, strong upper-level divergence, and a sufficiently moist\r\natmosphere.  By 36 to 48 hours,  an uptick in the southwesterly\r\nvertical shear associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric trough\r\napproaching Seymour from the northwest should induce a weakening\r\ntrend.  With the waters cooling substantially and the shear becoming\r\nprohibitively high after that time, rapid weakening is likely.\r\nSeymour is now forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by 96\r\nhours, if not perhaps sooner, as depicted in global model guidance.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is generally above the the guidance\r\nthrough 48 hours, closest to the FSU Superensemble and NOAA\r\nCorrected Consensus HCCA model output, and just above the multi-\r\nmodel consensus after that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/14 kt. Seymour should maintain a\r\nwest-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed for\r\nthe next 36 to 48 hours as it nears the western periphery of a\r\nmid-level ridge located to the south of Baja California.  The trough\r\nupstream of Seymour should erode the ridge further in about 48 hours\r\nand cause the cyclone to turn northwestward and northward while it\r\ndecelerates. The guidance has again shifted toward the left during\r\nthe next few days, and the official forecast is adjusted in that\r\ndirection but lies on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The\r\nmodel guidance is now much slower after that time, around the time\r\nSeymour decouples and becomes a remnant low.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 15.3N 111.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 15.6N 113.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z 16.7N 118.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z 17.6N 120.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z 20.7N 122.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 22.3N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-10-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n900 PM MDT MON OCT 24 2016\r\n\r\nAfter rapidly intensifying during the past 30 hours, the rate of\r\nstrengthening has slowed for the time being. The eye of Seymour has\r\nbecome cloud-filled on geostationary satellite images and microwave\r\ndata indicate that the northwestern portion of the eyewall has\r\neroded some.  The observed arrested development this evening is\r\nlikely due to the entrainment of dry air.  However, there are\r\nalready some signs that the hurricane is recovering from these\r\neffects with central convection increasing and becoming more\r\ncircular during the past couple of hours.  The initial intensity is\r\nset at 90 kt, slightly above the Dvorak estimates at 0000 UTC due to\r\nthe improvement in organization of the system since that time.\r\n\r\nSince Seymour is expected to remain in low wind shear conditions,\r\nover warm water, and in an environment of good upper-level\r\ndivergence during the next 24 hours, significant strengthening is\r\nanticipated. After that time, however, an increase in southwesterly\r\nshear should end the strengthening process. Seymour is forecast to\r\nrapidly weaken when it moves over cooler water and into hostile\r\natmospheric conditions beginning in about 2 days. The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is a little higher than the multi-model consensus, and is\r\nin best agreement with the SHIPS and LGEM models.\r\n\r\nSeymour is moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 14 kt.  The hurricane\r\nis expected to remain on the southwestern side of a mid-level high\r\npressure system during the next 36 to 48 hours, which should allow\r\nSeymour to maintain a westward to west-northwestward motion. After\r\nthat time, a large deep-layer low pressure system is expected to\r\nmove eastward toward California and erode the ridge.  This pattern\r\nchange should cause Seymour to turn northwestward and then northward\r\nin 3 to 4 days.  The track models are in relatively good agreement,\r\nand only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast track.\r\n\r\nA pair of ASCAT passes from several hours ago indicate that the wind\r\nfield of Seymour is very compact, with tropical-storm-force winds\r\nextending no more than 60 n mi from the center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 15.5N 112.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.9N 114.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 16.4N 117.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 17.2N 119.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 18.4N 121.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 21.5N 122.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 22.5N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-10-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n300 AM MDT TUE OCT 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe small eye of Seymour has reappeared in infrared satellite\r\nimagery overnight, and has warmed and become more distinct within\r\nthe past hour or so.  Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are\r\nT5.5 (102 kt) from TAFB and T5.0 (90 kt) from SAB. Objective Dvorak\r\nintensity estimates from UW/CIMSS are somewhat lower, likely due to\r\nthe technique having difficulty in resolving the small eye.  Based\r\non the very recent warming of the eye, the initial intensity is set\r\nto 100 kt.\r\n\r\nSeymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and\r\nover SSTs of around 28C during the next 24 hours.  These conditions\r\nfavor additional intensification and the NHC wind speed forecast\r\ncalls for a peak intensity at category 4 strength later today.\r\nAfter that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters\r\nshould begin the weakening process.  Seymour is predicted to weaken\r\nvery rapidly between days 2 and 3 when it encounters very strong\r\nsouthwesterly shear and moves over SSTs below 25C.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is near the upper-end of the guidance through\r\n24 hours, but is close to the LGEM and NOAA corrected consensus\r\nmodels after that time.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane is moving westward or 280/13 kt.  A mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge extending westward from Mexico is expected to\r\nsteer Seymour westward to west-northwestward for another 24 to 36\r\nhours.  After that time, a deep-layer trough is forecast to erode\r\nthe western portion of the ridge which should cause Seymour to turn\r\nnorthwestward, then northward later in the period.  The track\r\nguidance remains in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast\r\nis essentially an update of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nRecent ASCAT data shows that Seymour remains a small tropical\r\ncyclone with tropical-storm-force winds extending only about\r\n60 n mi from the center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 15.6N 113.8W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 16.0N 115.9W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 16.6N 118.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 17.5N 120.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 18.8N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 21.2N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-10-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave satellite imagery suggests that Seymour underwent an\r\neyewall replacement during the night, with an AMSR-2 overpass at\r\n0917 UTC showing a larger eye than seen on a Windsat overpass at\r\n0120 UTC.  The hurricane is looking better organized than 6 hours\r\nago in infrared satellite imagery, with the eye gradually becoming\r\nmore apparent and greater symmetry in the cold cloud tops around the\r\neye.  The latest satellite intensity estimates include 115 kt from\r\nTAFB, 102, kt from SAB, and 108 kt from the CIMSS satellite\r\nconsensus.  Based on these and current trends, the initial intensity\r\nis increased to 110 kt.\r\n\r\nSeymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and\r\nover SSTs of around 28C during the next 24 hours.  These conditions\r\nfavor additional intensification and the NHC wind speed forecast\r\ncalls for a peak intensity at category 4 strength later today or\r\nearly tonight.  After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and\r\ncooler waters should cause steady to rapid weakening.  The majority\r\nof the guidance shows Seymour weakening below hurricane strength in\r\nless than 72 hours, degenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and\r\ndissipating completely by 120 hours.  The new intensity forecast is\r\nan update of the previous forecast and continues to lie near the\r\nupper end of the intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 275/12.  A mid- to upper-level ridge extending\r\nwestward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward to\r\nwest-northwestward for another 24 hours or so.  Subsequently, a\r\ndeep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause\r\na break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and\r\nnorthward into the break.  Most of the track guidance suggests the\r\nforward motion should slow between 72-96 hours as Seymour shears\r\napart, and this is reflected in the track forecast.  The new\r\nforecast track is a little to the south of the previous track during\r\nthe first 24 hours, and then is similar to the previous track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 15.6N 115.0W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 16.0N 117.0W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 16.8N 119.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 18.0N 121.0W  100 KT 115 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 19.5N 122.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 21.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 22.0N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-10-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour has continued to intensify since the last advisory, with\r\nthe 15 n mi wide eye continuing to become better defined inside the\r\ncentral dense overcast.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,\r\nSAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus are all 115 kt, so that is\r\nthe initial intensity for this advisory.  The hurricane currently\r\nhas good cirrus outflow in all directions except to the south.\r\n\r\nSeymour is expected to remain within an area of low wind shear and\r\nover SSTs of around 28C for the next 12-18 hours, and thus some\r\nadditional strengthening is possible.  After 18 hours, increasing\r\nsouthwesterly shear and cooler waters should cause steady to rapid\r\nweakening.  The majority of the guidance continues to show Seymour\r\nweakening below hurricane strength in less than 72 hours,\r\ndegenerating to a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipating\r\ncompletely by 120 hours.  The new intensity forecast is an update\r\nof the previous forecast and again lies near the upper end of the\r\nintensity guidance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is still 275/12.  A mid- to upper-level ridge\r\nextending westward from Mexico is expected to steer Seymour westward\r\nto west-northwestward for another 12-24 hours.  Subsequently, a\r\ndeep-layer trough over the northeastern Pacific is expected to cause\r\na break in the ridge, with Seymour turning northwestward and\r\nnorthward into the break.  Most of the track guidance suggests the\r\nforward motion should slow after 48 hours as Seymour shears apart,\r\nand it now suggests that the hurricane should turn more westward\r\nbefore dissipation as it is steered by low-level easterly flow.  The\r\nnew forecast track is similar to the previous track for the first 72\r\nhours, then it is shifted a little westward at the 96 hour point.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.7N 116.4W  115 KT 130 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 16.2N 118.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 17.2N 120.3W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 18.5N 121.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 19.9N 122.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 21.5N 123.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-10-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 25 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour has continued to rapidly intensify since the last advisory.\r\nThe eye is about 10-15 nmi wide in infrared satellite imagery, but\r\nis less than 10 nmi wide in a recent 0005Z SSMI/S microwave image,\r\nindicating that the eye diameter has contracted since the previous\r\nadvisory. The initial intensity is increased to 130 kt for this\r\nadvisory based on satellite intensity estimates of T6.5/127 kt from\r\nboth TAFB and SAB, and a T6.7/132 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 285/13 kt. The global and regional models\r\nremain in excellent agreement on Seymour moving steadily\r\nwest-northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer\r\nridge for the next 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the northwest\r\nin 36 hours as a strong shortwave trough significantly erodes the\r\nwestern portion of the ridge. By 48 hours, Seymour is expected to\r\nslow down appreciably and turn north-northwestward as the cyclone\r\nrapidly weakens and becomes more vertically shallow. After that\r\ntime, the shallow post-tropical low is forecast to turn back toward\r\nthe west-northwest under the influence of the low-level trade wind\r\nflow. The official forecast track is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory, and lies close to blend of the TVCX and HCCA consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nSome additional slight strengthening is possible during the next\r\n6-12 hours due to the small eye, low shear conditions, and warm\r\nSSTs. After that time, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear,\r\ncooler waters, including significant cold upwelling by 24 hours and\r\nbeyond, should cause steady to rapid weakening.  Seymour is expected\r\nto drop below hurricane status shortly after 48 hours, degenerate\r\ninto a post-tropical low by 72 hours, and dissipate by 120 hours.\r\nThe new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and\r\nis close to the IVCN intensity consensus model.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.1N 117.7W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 16.7N 119.4W  125 KT 145 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 17.9N 121.1W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 19.2N 122.2W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 20.2N 122.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 21.1N 122.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 21.7N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-10-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour remains an impressive hurricane in geostationary satellite\r\npictures, with a very distinct eye surrounded by a symmetric CDO.\r\nSubjective and objective Dvorak current intensity numbers are\r\nunchanged from before and the initial intensity remains 130 kt\r\nfor this advisory.  Some slight strengthening is still possible\r\nthis morning while Seymour remains over warm water and in a low\r\nshear environment, however, by this afternoon the hurricane will\r\nbegin moving over slightly lower SSTs, which should start the\r\nweakening process.  Seymour is forecast to cross the 26 degree\r\nCelsius isotherm tonight and move over colder waters and into an\r\narea of strong southwesterly wind shear thereafter. These conditions\r\nare expected to cause a very rapid decrease in intensity on\r\nThursday, and Seymour is forecast to become a tropical storm within\r\n48 hours and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low on Friday\r\nor early Saturday.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/12 kt.  A deepening mid- to\r\nupper-level trough seen in water vapor imagery near 140W is expected\r\nto erode the western portion of the ridge that has been steering\r\nSeymour westward during the past few days.  As the ridge weakens,\r\nSeymour is forecast to turn northwestward, then northward ahead of\r\nthe trough.  After 48 hours, Seymour's forward motion should\r\ndecrease as it becomes vertically shallow and is steered by the\r\nweaker low-level flow.  The latest guidance envelope has shifted\r\nnorthward and eastward at 36 h and beyond, and the NHC track\r\nforecast has been adjusted accordingly.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 16.4N 119.0W  130 KT 150 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 17.2N 120.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 18.6N 121.9W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 20.1N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 21.2N 122.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 22.5N 122.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-10-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 26 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour continues to maintain an impressive central dense overcast,\r\nconsisting of very deep convection around a 15 n mi well-defined\r\neye.  However, the distribution of convection has become slightly\r\nasymmetric since the last advisory, with the greatest coverage to\r\nthe north and east of the center.  The convective asymmetry is\r\nlikely indicative of some increase in southwesterly shear.  A blend\r\nof the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers, including UW-CIMSS ADT\r\nvalues, is used to lower the initial intensity estimate of 120 kt.\r\n\r\nSeymour is living on borrowed time.  A large mid- to upper-level\r\ntrough seen in water vapor imagery upstream of the cyclone should\r\ncause a considerable increase in southwesterly shear within 24\r\nhours. By that time, Seymour will already have reached much cooler\r\nwaters.  This should result in weakening, with the rate of filling\r\nonly increasing with time.  By 36 hours, the shear should become\r\nextremely strong and cause the vortex to shear apart, with the\r\nmiddle and upper portions of the circulation moving well to the\r\nnorth or northeast of the low-level center.  The official forecast\r\nshows Seymour becoming a post-tropical remnant low in 48 hours in\r\ngeneral agreement with global models that depict this decoupling as\r\nsoon as 36 to 42 hours. The NHC intensity forecast shows about the\r\nsame rate of weakening as the previous one and is close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/13.  Seymour has begun to gain a\r\nlittle more latitude recently as it nears the western periphery of a\r\nmid-level ridge west of the Baja California peninsula.  The\r\ncyclone's motion should slow and become northwesterly soon and\r\nthen shift north-northwestward and northward in 24 to 36 hours as\r\nSeymour becomes embedded in the flow between the high to the\r\nnortheast and the trough to the northwest.  Once Seymour becomes a\r\nshallow system in 48 hours, the remnant low will slow further and\r\nturn north-northeastward until dissipation.  The NHC track forecast\r\nis only slightly to the left of the previous one after 24 hours and\r\na little faster during the remnant low phase.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 16.9N 120.2W  120 KT 140 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 18.0N 121.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 19.7N 122.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 21.1N 122.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 22.2N 122.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 23.7N 121.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-10-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour has begun to quickly weaken.  The hurricane's central dense\r\novercast has taken on a distorted appearance, and the deep\r\nconvection associated with the cyclone's circulation has become\r\nnoticeably asymmetric.  The eye has also become cloud-filled and\r\nhas cooled rather dramatically in the last few hours.  The recent\r\ndeterioration of the cloud pattern is associated with a considerable\r\nincrease of southwesterly shear over the cyclone.  Dvorak T-numbers\r\nhave decreased to T5.5/102 kt from both satellite agencies, and\r\nthese estimates averaged with Dvorak CI-numbers, are used to lower\r\nthe initial intensity to 110 kt.\r\n\r\nThe shear, currently analyzed in the 15 to 20 kt range, is forecast\r\nto increase tremendously over Seymour during the next 24 to 36 hours\r\nas a strong mid- to upper-level tropospheric trough approaches the\r\ncyclone from the west. Since Seymour is a small tropical cyclone and\r\nwill be traversing cooler waters by that time, the weakening trend\r\nshould become increasingly more rapid. Global models show the vortex\r\ndecoupling as a result of the strong deep-layer shear in 30 to 36\r\nhours, and the official forecast shows Seymour degenerating into a\r\nremnant low by 48 hours.  The NHC track forecast represents an\r\nupdate of the previous one and is near the various model consensus\r\naids.\r\n\r\nSeymour continues to gain a greater northward component of motion,\r\nand the initial motion estimate is 300/11.  The cyclone is forecast\r\nto turn even more poleward and slow down during the next 24 to 36\r\nhours as it rounds the western periphery of a mid-level high located\r\nwest of the Baja California peninsula.  While the vortex remains\r\nintact, the strong south-southwesterly flow associated with the\r\nupstream trough should cause Seymour to turn north-northeastward\r\nbefore shearing off and eventually dissipating.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is not much different than the previous one and near the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 17.5N 121.2W  110 KT 125 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 18.8N 122.2W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 20.6N 123.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 22.3N 122.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 23.5N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-10-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 26 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour is weakening rapidly.  Although a small eye was still\r\napparent in microwave data a few hours ago, this feature is no\r\nlonger evident in the latest geostationary satellite images.  In\r\naddition, the convective pattern has become asymmetric due to\r\nincreasing southwesterly shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to\r\n95 kt based on Dvorak final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and\r\nCIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.  The hurricane is moving\r\nacross the 26 deg C isotherm and it is expected to move over even\r\ncolder waters during the next couple of days.  These unfavorable\r\noceanic conditions combined with drier air and a significant\r\nincrease in wind shear should cause Seymour to continue to rapidly\r\nweaken. The NHC intensity forecast shows a very fast weakening\r\ntrend, predicting Seymour to fall below hurricane strength on\r\nThursday and degenerate to a remnant low on Friday. This forecast\r\nlies near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has made the expected turn to the northwest, and is\r\nnow moving 320 degrees at 12 kt.  A large deep-layer trough\r\nlocated several hundred miles offshore of the U.S. west coast is\r\nexpected to move eastward, causing Seymour to slow down and turn\r\nnorthward and then northeastward during the next couple of days.\r\nThe track models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast\r\nlies near the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 18.7N 121.7W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 20.1N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 21.8N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 24.3N 121.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-10-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016\r\n\r\nCool waters and strong southwesterly shear are causing Seymour to\r\nrapidly weaken this morning.  The cloud pattern of the tropical\r\ncyclone is becoming increasingly asymmetric, with the center\r\nlocated near the southwestern edge of the main convective mass.  As\r\na result of the degradation of the cloud pattern, subjective and\r\nobjective Dvorak T- and CI-numbers are quickly decreasing, and the\r\ninitial intensity has been reduced to 80 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nSeymour will be moving over SSTs below 25 degrees Celsius and\r\ninto an area of vertical shear greater than 30 kt within 12 hours.\r\nThese hostile conditions will cause a rapid decrease in wind speed\r\nduring the next 24 to 36 hours, and Seymour is predicted to weaken\r\nto a tropical storm this afternoon, and become a post-tropical\r\nremnant low by Friday afternoon.\r\n\r\nThe hurricane has turned north-northwestward, and is moving 335\r\ndegrees at 10 kt.  Seymour is forecast to turn northward today, and\r\nthen northeastward on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough\r\nlocated well offshore of the west coast of the United States.  The\r\ntrack guidance remains tightly clustered but has trended slightly\r\nfaster this cycle.  The updated NHC track forecast has been\r\nadjusted accordingly and lies near the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 19.5N 122.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 21.0N 122.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 22.6N 122.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 24.0N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 25.3N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Seymour","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-10-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 27 2016\r\n\r\nSeymour is rapidly weakening due to a combination of southwesterly\r\nvertical wind shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures, with\r\nrecent microwave imagery showing the low-level center becoming\r\nexposed to the south of the remaining deep convection.  The initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 70 kt based on a blend of satellite\r\nintensity estimates and continuity from the last advisory, and it is\r\npossible this could be generous.  Rapid weakening should continue,\r\nand Seymour is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm later today,\r\nbecome a remnant low in 36 hours or less, and dissipate completely\r\nbetween 48-72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 335/10.  Seymour is forecast to turn northward\r\nlater today, and then north-northeastward tonight or on Friday ahead\r\nof a large deep-layer trough located well offshore of the west coast\r\nof the United States.  The track guidance remains tightly clustered\r\nand the new forecast track, which lies near the center of the\r\nguidance envelope, is an update of the previous track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 20.2N 122.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 21.5N 122.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 23.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 24.3N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 25.6N 120.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Seymour","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-10-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016\r\n\r\nA combination of cold sea surface temperatures and 35 kt of\r\nsouthwesterly shear has reduced Seymour to an almost convection-less\r\nswirl of clouds.  The initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based\r\non a blend of satellite intensity estimates, and this could be\r\ngenerous.  Rapid weakening should continue, and Seymour is forecast\r\nto become a remnant low in 24 hours or less, and dissipate\r\ncompletely between 48-72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 345/10.  Seymour is forecast to turn northward\r\nduring the next several hours, and then northeastward tonight\r\nor on Friday ahead of a large deep-layer trough located well\r\noffshore of the west coast of the United States.  The new track\r\nforecast is a little to the left and a little faster than the\r\nprevious track, and it remains near the center of the guidance\r\nenvelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 21.2N 123.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 22.6N 122.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 24.0N 121.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 25.0N 120.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 26.4N 120.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Seymour","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-10-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n800 PM PDT THU OCT 27 2016\r\n\r\nA small area of deep convection has been ongoing more than 100 n mi\r\nnorth-northeast of Seymour's center during the past few hours, but\r\nit's not really enough to be considered organized.  Dvorak Current\r\nIntensity numbers from TAFB and SAB decreased to 3.0/45 kt at 0000\r\nUTC, and more recent ADT estimates are even lower.  The advisory\r\nintensity is therefore set at 40 kt.  Strong shear and colder\r\nwaters ahead of Seymour should continue the fast weakening trend,\r\nand the cyclone is likely to be declared a remnant low in 12 hours\r\nor less due to a lack of organized deep convection.  Based on global\r\nmodel fields, the remnant low is expected to dissipate just after\r\n48 hours.\r\n\r\nSeymour has turned northward with an initial motion of 360/9 kt.\r\nAs a shallow, convection-less low, Seymour is expected to turn\r\nnortheastward ahead of a cold front during the next 24 hours and\r\nthen back to the north-northeast by 48 hours.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory during the\r\nfirst 24 hours, but is then nudged westward at 36 and 48 hours in\r\nline with a general westward shift in the guidance at those times.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 22.0N 123.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 23.1N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 24.2N 121.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 25.5N 121.1W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 27.2N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Seymour","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-10-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP202016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SEYMOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI OCT 28 2016\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has lacked organized deep convection within 60-100 n mi\r\nof its center for over 12 hours, and no longer qualifies as a\r\ntropical cyclone.  Since Seymour has become a post-tropical remnant\r\nlow, advisories are being discontinued.  Subjective Dvorak\r\nclassifications from TAFB and SAB along with scatterometer data\r\nindicated an intensity of near 35 kt at 0600 UTC.  Assuming some\r\nadditional spindown of the cyclone since then, the advisory\r\nintensity is set at 30 kt.  The low will be moving through an\r\nextremely hostile environment of southwesterly shear of 40-45 kt and\r\nSSTs cooler than 23 deg C during the next couple of days.  These\r\nenvironmental factors should cause the remnant low to dissipate in a\r\ncouple of days.  This is also shown by the global model predictions.\r\n\r\nThe low has turned toward a slightly east of northward heading, and\r\nthe initial motion is about 010/7 kt.  A north-northeastward motion,\r\nahead of an approaching frontal system, is expected over the next\r\nday or so.  The official track forecast is adjusted a little to the\r\nleft of the previous one, toward the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 22.4N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 23.3N 122.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 24.5N 121.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 25.8N 121.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0600Z 27.5N 121.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tina","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-11-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP212016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016\r\n900 PM MDT SUN NOV 13 2016\r\n\r\nOrganized deep convection has developed closer to the center of the\r\nlow pressure system located a couple of hundred miles southwest of\r\nthe southwestern coast of Mexico since this afternoon.  On this\r\nbasis, the system is being designated as a tropical storm with 35\r\nkt winds, in agreement with a satellite classification of T2.5 from\r\nTAFB and earlier ASCAT data.  Even though Tina is over 30 deg C\r\nwaters, a large mid- to upper-level trough extending southwestward\r\ninto the eastern Pacific from the central United States is imparting\r\naround 30 kt of south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone.  This\r\nshear is forecast to increase further during the next 24 hours when\r\na piece of the trough amplifies over the Gulf of Mexico, and this\r\nshould cause Tina to degenerate into a remnant low.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is consistent with the statistical-dynamical\r\nguidance and shows dissipation by 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 350/03.  In the very short term,\r\nTina should continue to move generally northward, or possibly\r\neven erratically toward the current convective burst, in a deep\r\nlayer of south-southwesterly flow.  Within about 12 hours, the shear\r\nis forecast to be extremely strong and result in a decoupling of the\r\ncyclone.  Once this occurs, Tina should turn west-northwestward and\r\nwestward into the low-level flow around the eastern Pacific\r\nsubtropical ridge.  The NHC forecast track is a little to the right\r\nof all of the guidance through 12 hours and then merges with the\r\nmulti-model consensus until dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0300Z 18.5N 107.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1200Z 18.9N 107.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0000Z 19.1N 108.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/1200Z 19.0N 109.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Tina","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-11-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP212016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016\r\n300 AM MDT MON NOV 14 2016\r\n\r\nStrong south-southwesterly shear is taking a toll on Tina.  The\r\nconvective burst that occurred during the evening hours became\r\ndisplaced from the center and dissipated, but a new smaller burst of\r\nconvection has recently developed about 75 n mi northeast of the\r\ncenter.  Although Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased, a TAFB\r\nDvorak current intensity number of T2.5 supports maintaining Tina\r\nhas a 35-kt tropical storm, but this could be generous.  Tina is\r\nexpected to be a short-lived tropical cyclone.  The strong shear\r\nthat is currently over the system is forecast to increase to nearly\r\n40 kt today, and dry mid-level air to Tina's west should cause the\r\ntropical cyclone to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within\r\nthe next 24 hours.  The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to\r\nthe previous advisory and is in good agreement with the statistical\r\nguidance and dynamical models which show dissipation in 36 to 48\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm appears to have turned west-northwestward\r\novernight with an initial motion estimate of 300/5.  As Tina weakens\r\nand becomes a more vertically shallow system, it is expected to be\r\nmove generally westward within the low-level flow around a\r\nsubtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The global models are in\r\nrelatively good agreement on this steering pattern and the NHC track\r\nforecast is a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/0900Z 18.7N 108.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  14/1800Z 18.8N 108.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/0600Z 18.9N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  15/1800Z 18.9N 110.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Tina","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-11-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP212016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016\r\n800 AM MST MON NOV 14 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Tina is weakening.  Deep convection\r\nhas decreased during the past several hours and is now confined to\r\na narrow curved band about 90 n mi northeast of the center.  The\r\nDvorak classifications have lowered, and support reducing the\r\ninitial intensity to 30 kt.  Very strong southwesterly shear of\r\nnearly 40 kt and dry air will continue to affect the cyclone during\r\nthe next couple of days, which should cause additional weakening.\r\nThe system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low in 12 to 24\r\nhours and will likely dissipate in a couple of days or less.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. A turn to the\r\nwest in the low-level easterly flow is expected later today as the\r\ncyclone loses convection and becomes vertically shallow.  The NHC\r\ntrack forecast is a tad north of the previous one, based mainly on\r\nthe initial position, and lies near the various consensus aids.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/1500Z 19.0N 108.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  15/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/0000Z 19.1N 111.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Tina","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-11-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP212016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016\r\n200 PM MST MON NOV 14 2016\r\n\r\nTina is barely holding on to tropical cyclone status due to a curved\r\nband of deep convection that has redeveloped in the northeastern\r\nquadrant.  However, the convection is gradually becoming fragmented\r\nand the exposed low-level circulation continues to separate from the\r\nconvection due to Tina moving westward motion beneath southwesterly\r\nupper-level winds of at least 40 kt. A drier and more stable air\r\nmass, along with the aforementioned strong vertical wind shear\r\nconditions, should result in Tina degenerating into a remnant low\r\npressure system during the next 12 hours and dissipating on\r\nWednesday.\r\n\r\nLight easterly wind flow on the south side of low-/mid-level ridge\r\nlocated to the north of Tina is expected to keep the shallow cyclone\r\nmoving slowly westward for the next 36-48 hours until dissipation\r\noccurs. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous\r\nadvisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  14/2100Z 18.9N 109.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  15/0600Z 19.0N 109.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  15/1800Z 19.1N 110.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  16/0600Z 19.1N 111.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Tina","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-11-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP212016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TINA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212016\r\n800 PM MST MON NOV 14 2016\r\n\r\nTina's circulation has become much less vigorous and diffuse today\r\nin the absence of any additional convective bursts.  The paltry\r\namount of convection that persists is not considered organized\r\nenough to call Tina a tropical cyclone, and the system is thus being\r\ndeclared a remnant low.  Although the low is still over very warm\r\nwaters, a deep layer of very strong southwesterly shear and an\r\nincreasingly stabilizing and drier atmosphere should preclude\r\nregeneration.  Dissipation of the low is anticipated in 24 hours or\r\nless, in agreement with the global models.\r\n\r\nThe remnant low is moving 270/06.  The shallow vortex should\r\ncontinue westward or west-southwestward under the influence of the\r\nlow-level subtropical eastern Pacific ridge until dissipation.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Tina.  For additional information on\r\nthe remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the\r\nNational Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header\r\nFZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  15/1200Z 18.9N 110.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Kimberlain\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-11-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with the low pressure system located\r\nover the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized over\r\nthe past 12 hours, including the development of some banding\r\nfeatures. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft yesterday\r\nbetween 1900-2000 UTC indicated that the low had a well-defined\r\ncirculation center, along with flight-level winds of 38 kt and SFMR\r\nsurface winds of 32-34 kt in no-rain areas. Since that time, an\r\nintense convective burst with cloud tops of -88C developed near the\r\ncenter between 0400-0500 UTC, which likely helped to spin up the\r\ninner-core circulation a little more. In addition, ship C6VG7\r\nlocated 90-100 nmi southeast of the center has been reporting winds\r\nas high 38 kt at an elevation of 34 meters, which adjusts to a\r\n10-meter wind of 30-32 kt. Although cloud tops have warmed since\r\nthat earlier strong convective burst occurred, the overall\r\nconvective cloud pattern has improved since the recon flight\r\nyesterday. Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system\r\nas a 30-kt depression, which could be conservative.\r\n\r\nThe depression has been meandering in the same general area for the\r\npast 12 hours or so, and little motion is expected today and early\r\nTuesday while the cyclone remains trapped within a blocking ridge\r\npattern. By 36-48 hours, an east-west oriented ridge is forecast by\r\nthe global models to develop across the Greater Antilles and the\r\nBahamas, which is expected to nudge the depression in a slow\r\nwestward direction for the remainder of the forecast period, with\r\nlandfall possibly occuring after 72 hours. The system is expected to\r\nmove across Central America and into the eastern North Pacific by\r\n120 hours as a remnant low. The NHC official forecast track lies\r\nclose to the various consensus model forecasts.\r\n\r\nMarginal environmental conditions are only expected to support slow\r\nstrengthening for the next 36 hours or so. After that, the moderate\r\nvertical wind shear currently affecting the cyclone is forecast to\r\ndecrease to less than 10 kt while mid-level humidity values increase\r\nto more than 70 percent. This should allow for the depression to\r\nstrengthen into a hurricane by 72 hours before landfall occurs. By\r\n96 hours, the cyclone is expected to be inland over Central America\r\nand undergoing rapid weakening due to the interaction with the\r\nmountainous terrain of that region. The intensity forecast closely\r\nfollows the consensus intensity model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 11.5N  79.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 11.4N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 11.4N  79.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 11.4N  79.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 11.3N  80.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 11.3N  82.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 11.3N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/0600Z 11.0N  88.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-11-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone is gradually becoming\r\nbetter organized, with some banding features over the northern and\r\nwestern portions of the circulation and small bursts of deep\r\nconvection near or over the estimated center.  The current\r\nintensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from\r\nTAFB, pending an Air Force reconnaissance mission into the\r\ncyclone this afternoon.  There is moderate south-southeasterly shear\r\nover the depression, and this should allow for only slow\r\nstrengthening over the next day or two.  In 72 hours or so, some\r\nrelaxation of the shear is forecast with an upper-level anticyclone\r\ndeveloping over the tropical cyclone, and the system is predicted to\r\nbecome a hurricane before landfall.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis the same as the previous one, and is close to the latest SHIPS\r\nmodel guidance.\r\n\r\nSatellite-derived center fixes indicate little motion since late\r\nyesterday.  The depression is currently located near a col in the\r\nmid-level flow, so steering currents are very weak at this time.\r\nGlobal model guidance shows a high developing to the north of the\r\nsystem in a few days, so a generally westward track is forecast.\r\nThe official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS\r\ntracks, with the former model being faster and farther south and\r\nthe latter being slower and farther north.  The new official\r\nforecast is very similar to the previous NHC forecast track.\r\n\r\nThere is a lot of uncertainty as to whether the system will survive\r\nas a tropical cyclone while crossing Central America later in the\r\nforecast period.  The current thinking is that the interaction with\r\nland and increasing shear will reduce the system to a remnant low by\r\nthe time it reaches the east Pacific.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 11.5N  79.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 11.4N  79.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 11.3N  79.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 11.2N  80.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 11.1N  81.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 11.1N  82.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 11.1N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/1200Z 11.0N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-11-21 18:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n100 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nThis is a special advisory to report that Tropical Depression\r\nSixteen has strengthened.  Visible satellite imagery shows that the\r\ninner core has become better defined over the past few hours, and\r\nASCAT data indicate that the maximum winds have increased to near 45\r\nkt.  Additional intensification is expected, and Otto could become a\r\nhurricane in 48 hours, or sooner.\r\n\r\nNo change has been made to the initial position or track forecast\r\nfrom the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1800Z 11.5N  79.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 11.4N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 11.3N  79.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 11.2N  80.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 11.1N  81.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 11.1N  82.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 11.1N  85.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n120H  26/1200Z 11.0N  88.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-11-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nSince the strengthening episode this morning, visible and microwave\r\nsatellite imagery shows that Otto has not become much better\r\norganized.  Maintenance issues have caused the cancellation of\r\nthis afternoon's aerial reconnaissance mission.  The initial\r\nintensity estimate is 45 kt based on data from an earlier\r\nscatterometer overpass, and above the latest Dvorak estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB.  The upper-level outflow is restricted over the\r\nsoutheastern quadrant of the circulation, probably due to continued\r\nsouth-southeasterly vertical shear.  Strengthening to a hurricane\r\nseems likely, however, and the official intensity forecast is close\r\nto the model consensus.  There remains a lot of uncertainty as to\r\nwhether Otto will survive crossing Central America.  The official\r\nforecast shows the system as a remnant low over the east Pacific, as\r\nsuggested by the latest ECMWF and U.K. Met. office model runs.\r\n\r\nThere has been little movement of the tropical cyclone today, while\r\nOtto remains in an environment of weak steering currents.  The\r\nglobal models show a mid-level high pressure area gradually building\r\nto the north of the storm over the next several days.  This should\r\ncause Otto to begin to move slowly westward within 48 hours, with a\r\ncontinued westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed in the\r\nlatter part of the period.  The official track forecast is close to\r\na consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 11.3N  79.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 11.1N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 11.1N  79.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 11.1N  80.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 11.1N  81.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 11.2N  83.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  25/1800Z 11.2N  86.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1800Z 11.2N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-11-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 PM EST MON NOV 21 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection continues to burst over the low-level center of\r\nOtto.  A 2329 UTC WindSat microwave overpass shows that the\r\ninner-core structure of the small tropical cyclone has become\r\nbetter organized with a low-level ring feature now evident.\r\nDvorak data T-numbers from SAB and TAFB have increased to 3.0\r\nand 3.5, respectively, and objective T-numbers from UW/CIMSS are\r\n3.2. These data support an initial wind speed of 50 kt, which\r\ncould be somewhat conservative.\r\n\r\nThe upper-level outflow remains well established over the western\r\nand northern portions of the circulation but it remains restricted\r\nto the southeast due to southeasterly shear of 15 to 20 kt.  The\r\nshear is forecast to abate a little during the next couple of days\r\nwhile Otto traverses SSTs of around 29C.  These conditions favor\r\nintensification and the NHC forecast is near a consensus of the\r\nSHIPS and LGEM models, and brings Otto to hurricane strength within\r\n36 hours.  Although the NHC forecast does not indicate strengthening\r\nbetween 48 and 72 hours, Otto could become a little stronger after\r\n48 hours and before it moves inland over Central America in about\r\n3 days. After that time, uncertainty remains as to whether the\r\ntropical cyclone will survive its crossing of Central America. The\r\nNHC forecast continues to show the system as a remnant low over the\r\neastern Pacific, which is supported by most of the global models.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes from the microwave imagery indicate that Otto has\r\nbeen drifting southward this evening.  The cyclone is not expected\r\nto move much overnight while it remains within an area of weak\r\nsteering currents.  On Tuesday, a mid-level ridge is forecast to\r\nbegin building to the north of the storm and Otto is forecast to\r\nstart moving slowly westward.  The ridge is expected to remain in\r\nplace during the remainder of the week and Otto should continue to\r\nmove generally westward at a slightly faster pace.  The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies between\r\nthe latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, which is also near the most\r\nrecent GFS ensemble mean.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 10.9N  79.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 10.8N  79.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 10.9N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 11.1N  80.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 11.3N  81.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 11.3N  84.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  26/0000Z 11.3N  87.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0000Z 10.8N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-11-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nDeep convection has continued to burst near the low-level center of\r\nOtto tonight.  A pair of ASCAT passes between 02Z and 03Z showed\r\npeak winds of around 45 kt, which support maintaining the intensity\r\nat 50 kt for this advisory.  This intensity estimate is also\r\nrepresents a blend of the 06Z subjective Dvorak estimates of 45 kt\r\nand the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 53 kt.  An Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Otto later\r\nthis morning.\r\n\r\nOtto's outflow pattern remains restricted south and southeast of the\r\ncenter, consistent with about 20 kt of shear analyzed over the\r\ncyclone by the SHIPS model analysis and UW-CIMSS.  This shear is\r\nforecast to persist for the next 24 h or so and then abate somewhat\r\nby 36 hours.  Given this, some gradual strengthening is expected\r\nwhile Otto moves over waters of around 29C, and the NHC forecast\r\nshows Otto becoming a hurricane in 24 to 36 h.  The official\r\nforecast through 48 h is a little above the intensity consensus and\r\nclose to the latest FSU Superensemble and the NOAA HFIP consensus\r\naid HCCA.  After that time, land interaction should result in\r\nweakening and much of the guidance continues to suggest that Otto\r\nwill weaken to a remnant low after it emerges into the eastern\r\nPacific, and this is still reflected in the official forecast.  It\r\nis worth noting, however, that the ECMWF maintains Otto as a\r\nstronger cyclone over the Pacific through day 5.\r\n\r\nAfter drifting south-southeastward overnight, Otto is estimated to\r\nbe stationary.  Little net motion is expected today while the\r\ntropical cyclone is caught in a region of weak steering currents. By\r\n24 hours, a mid-level ridge will begin to build north of Otto, which\r\nshould impart a west-northwestward motion and then a westward turn\r\nat a slightly faster forward speed by 48 h as the ridge amplifies.\r\nThis synoptic pattern should steer Otto toward the coast of Central\r\nAmerica in 48 to 72 hours.  After that time, a further westward\r\nacceleration is expected as the mid-level ridge builds westward.\r\nThe new NHC track forecast is faster than the previous one at 48\r\nhours and beyond and has been adjusted southward at days 3-5.  The\r\nnew official forecast lies between HCCA and the FSU Superensemble\r\nthrough 48 hours and is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF after\r\nthat time.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 10.7N  79.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 10.7N  79.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 10.9N  79.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 11.2N  80.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 11.2N  82.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  25/0600Z 11.0N  85.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  26/0600Z 10.5N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  27/0600Z 10.0N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-11-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nOtto is close to becoming a hurricane. Satellite images indicate\r\nthat the cloud pattern has become better organized, with a central\r\ndense overcast and broad band feature over the western semicircle\r\nevident.  The past Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight\r\nrecorded maximum flight-level winds of 65 kt, with SFMR winds of\r\nabout 60 kt.  Thus, the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt\r\nfor this advisory.\r\n\r\nWeak-to-moderate southeasterly shear is expected near Otto for the\r\nnext couple of days while the tropical cyclone moves over warm\r\nwater.  These conditions should allow Otto to continue to\r\nstrengthen, and almost all of the guidance has Otto as a hurricane\r\nbefore making a central American landfall.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is raised from the previous one, and lies between the\r\nintensity consensus and the HWRF model.  Land interaction will\r\ncause weakening after landfall, but a stronger Otto is less likely\r\nto dissipate as quickly over the eastern Pacific.  Most of the\r\nguidance now keeps the storm going throughout the period, so the\r\nremnant low designation has been changed to a tropical cyclone\r\nstatus over the eastern Pacific.\r\n\r\nOtto really isn't moving much, with recon fixes showing little net\r\nmotion during the morning hours.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to\r\nbuild over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should\r\ncause Otto to move slowly westward.  As the ridge builds, the\r\nforecast speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves\r\nacross the eastern Pacific.  The guidance continues to trend\r\nsouthward, and the official forecast is shifted in that direction.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 10.4N  79.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 10.4N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 10.6N  80.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 10.8N  81.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 10.8N  82.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  25/1200Z 10.5N  86.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  26/1200Z 10.0N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  27/1200Z  9.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-11-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that Otto is continuing to strengthen.\r\nThe overall satellite pattern has become more symmetric, with a\r\nlarge mass of intense convection near the center. Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates range from 65 to 77 kt, and the wind speed is set to 65\r\nkt, which makes Otto the seventh hurricane of the season.  Otto\r\nis the latest hurricane formation on record in the Caribbean Sea,\r\neclipsing the mark of Martha (1969) by about a day.\r\n\r\nEnvironmental conditions appear favorable for continued\r\nstrengthening, with warm water and weak-to-moderate southeasterly\r\nshear during the next couple of days.  Most of the guidance models\r\nshow Otto making landfall as a category 1 hurricane on Thursday and\r\nso does the official forecast.  Stronger shear, as well as land\r\ninteraction over central America, will probably prevent Otto from\r\nrestrengthening over the eastern Pacific.\r\n\r\nSatellite fixes suggest that Otto has been drifting westward during\r\nthe day.  A mid-level ridge is still forecast to build over the\r\nnorthwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should cause Otto to\r\nmove slowly to the west or west-northwest.  As the ridge builds, the\r\nforward speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves\r\nacross the eastern Pacific and gradually loses latitude in that\r\nbasin.  The most notable change is that the guidance has come into\r\nbetter agreement on the track, although there are still some\r\nsignificant speed differences.  Overall, the guidance envelope has\r\nshifted a bit to the north and is faster, and the official forecast\r\nfollows that trend.\r\n\r\nA hurricane warning will likely be required tonight or early\r\ntomorrow for portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/2100Z 10.5N  79.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/0600Z 10.6N  80.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  23/1800Z 10.9N  81.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  24/0600Z 11.0N  82.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  24/1800Z 11.0N  83.9W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  25/1800Z 10.4N  88.2W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 96H  26/1800Z  9.8N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  27/1800Z  9.5N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake/Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-11-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 PM EST TUE NOV 22 2016\r\n\r\nReports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and\r\nsatellite imagery indicate that the intensification of Otto has\r\nstopped since the last advisory.  The aircraft reported a central\r\npressure near 988 mb with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting, at\r\nbest, an intensity of 65 kt.  In addition, satellite imagery shows a\r\ndecrease in the coverage of the associated convection.  The\r\narrested development might be due to dry air entrainment in the\r\neastern semicircle as suggested by water vapor imagery and recent\r\nmicrowave overpasses.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 285/3.  A mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge building over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and\r\nsoutheastern Mexico should steer Otto generally westward to\r\nwest-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, which would bring the\r\ncenter inland over southern Nicaragua or northern Costa Rica during\r\nthat time.  After 48 hours, the dynamical models forecast the ridge\r\nto build westward over the eastern Pacific Ocean and steer Otto\r\nwestward or west-southwestward to the south of El Salvador,\r\nGuatemala, and eastern Mexico.  The forecast guidance is in good\r\nagreement with the direction of the track, but there remains some\r\nspread in the forward speed.  The new forecast track is again a\r\nlittle to the north and a little faster than the previous track,\r\nand it lies near the center of forecast guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nIt is unclear how long the current arrested development will\r\ncontinue, as most of the intensity guidance forecasts strengthening\r\nbefore landfall.  The new intensity forecast is based on the\r\npremise that intensification should resume after 12 hours and\r\ncontinue until landfall, with Otto forecast to make landfall as a\r\ncategory 1 hurricane.  The cyclone should weaken significantly\r\nwhile crossing Central America, and as shown in the previous\r\nforecast strong shear should prevent re-intensification over the\r\nPacific.\r\n\r\nThe latest forecast track and wind radii require hurricane warnings\r\nfor portions of the coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua at this time.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0300Z 10.7N  79.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1200Z 10.8N  80.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0000Z 11.1N  81.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1200Z 11.2N  83.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  25/0000Z 11.1N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  26/0000Z 10.5N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC\r\n 96H  27/0000Z 10.0N  93.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/0000Z 10.0N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-11-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Otto has not changed much overnight,\r\nas deep convection continues to burst near the estimated center\r\nposition in a small ragged CDO pattern.  The latest Dvorak estimates\r\nare T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that will be the intensity\r\nfor this advisory.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft\r\nis already en route to investigate Otto later this morning.\r\n\r\nVertical shear, currently analyzed at 15-20 kt, should lessen a\r\nlittle bit in the next 12 to 24 h, but given the ragged nature of\r\nthe system right now, only modest strengthening is expected before\r\nlandfall.  Weakening is then forecast through 48 hours while the\r\ncenter moves across Central America.  Once Otto reaches the eastern\r\nPacific, gradual weakening is expected to continue due to increasing\r\nshear and a drier atmospheric environment.  In fact, the 00Z GFS\r\nand UKMET model runs both show the circulation of Otto dissipating\r\nin 4-5 days, and the NHC forecast now shows a remnant low by the end\r\nof the period.  The new NHC intensity forecast is close to the\r\nSHIPS model through 72 hours and follows the weakening trend of the\r\nglobal models after that time.\r\n\r\nOtto is moving toward the west-northwest with an initial motion\r\nestimate of 290/04, although it has been difficult to pinpoint the\r\ncenter overnight.  The mid-level ridge currently centered north of\r\nOtto will build westward and amplify during the forecast period.\r\nAs a result, Otto should turn westward and accelerate in the short\r\nterm, bringing the center to the coast in about 36 hours.  Later in\r\nthe period, a motion south of due west is indicated as the mid-level\r\nridge amplifies over the eastern Pacific.  The latest official\r\nforecast is slightly north of and slower than the previous one\r\nthrough landfall, and then has been adjusted southward and faster\r\nlate in the period.  The new NHC track is closest to the FSU\r\nSuperensemble through 72 hours and is near a blend of the ECMWF\r\nand GFS after that time.\r\n\r\nBased on the latest forecast, tropical storm watches have been\r\nissued for portions of the Pacific coasts of Nicaragua and Costa\r\nRica.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/0900Z 10.9N  80.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  23/1800Z 11.1N  81.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  24/0600Z 11.2N  82.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  24/1800Z 11.3N  83.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/0600Z 11.0N  86.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  26/0600Z 10.0N  91.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/0600Z  9.5N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/0600Z 10.0N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-11-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nOtto has lost some organization since yesterday.  The last Air\r\nForce Reserve reconnaissance mission reported that the eyewall has\r\ndissipated, along with a 6-mb rise in pressure.  Still, the maximum\r\n700-mb flight-level winds were 68 kt, with SFMR winds of about 50\r\nkt.  The initial intensity is conservatively reduced to 60 kt for\r\nthis advisory.\r\n\r\nIt appears that the southeasterly shear has been a little stronger\r\nthan forecast yesterday, which has allowed some drier air to mix\r\ninto the cyclone.  This is evident in the inner-core data from the\r\nAir Force mission, which showed rather low dewpoints at 700 mb.  The\r\nglobal models are suggesting the shear will decrease before\r\nlandfall, and Otto should be moving over warmer waters later today\r\nthat have not be subjected to any storm-forced upwelling.  These\r\nfactors suggest some restrengthening is possible overnight and\r\nThursday, which is consistent with the bulk of the guidance models.\r\nStronger shear over the eastern Pacific is expected to cause gradual\r\nweakening of Otto in that basin, with remnant low status likely by\r\nday 5.  The official intensity forecast has been reduced somewhat\r\nfrom the last one but still calls for Otto to be a hurricane at\r\nlandfall.\r\n\r\nAircraft fixes show that Otto continues to move toward the\r\nwest-northwest at 4 kt.  A building mid-level ridge to the north of\r\nOtto should cause the tropical cyclone to turn westward and\r\naccelerate tonight.  Late in the period, a motion south of due west\r\nis indicated as the mid-level ridge amplifies over the eastern\r\nPacific.  Model guidance is tightly clustered on this solution, and\r\nthe latest official forecast is very close to the previous one.\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/1500Z 11.1N  80.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0000Z 11.2N  81.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1200Z 11.3N  83.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0000Z 11.2N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/1200Z 10.8N  87.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  26/1200Z 10.0N  92.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1200Z  9.5N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  28/1200Z 10.0N 102.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-11-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nThere has not been much overall change to the Otto's satellite\r\npresentation today.  While the convection temporarily weakened\r\nthis morning, thunderstorm activity has rebuilt near the center\r\nduring the afternoon.  Satellite intensity estimates range from 55\r\nto 65 kt, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt.  An Air Force\r\nReserve Reconnaissance aircraft should be in Otto this evening to\r\nobtain a better estimate.\r\n\r\nThe GFS and the ECMWF models continue to insist that shear near Otto\r\nshould decrease this evening and tomorrow due to the nearby\r\nupper-level flow changing to a more easterly direction. Thus Otto\r\nstill has the chance to become a hurricane again before landfall on\r\nThursday, and the official forecast reflects this scenario.  Otto\r\nshould abruptly weaken after landfall, with a more gradual weakening\r\nanticipated over the eastern Pacific due to increasing easterly\r\nshear. The intensity guidance is showing a slower demise of Otto at\r\nlong range, so the intensity forecast has been boosted slightly from\r\nthe previous one at days 3 and 4.\r\n\r\nOtto is finally on the move, with the latest satellite fixes\r\nindicating a westward motion at about 6 kt.  A strengthening\r\nmid-level ridge to the north of Otto should force the storm to move\r\na bit faster to the west on Thursday, with an even faster\r\nsouth-of-west motion forecast over the weekend.  Very few changes\r\nwere required to the track prediction on this advisory since the\r\nmodel guidance remains in very good agreement.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  23/2100Z 11.2N  81.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  24/0600Z 11.3N  82.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  24/1800Z 11.2N  83.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  25/0600Z 10.9N  85.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  25/1800Z 10.5N  88.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 72H  26/1800Z  9.5N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  27/1800Z  9.5N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  28/1800Z 10.5N 102.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-11-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 PM EST WED NOV 23 2016\r\n\r\nA strong convective burst occurred near the center of Otto as an\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated the\r\ncyclone near 0000 UTC.  This resulted in the aircraft reporting\r\ncentral pressures near 977-979 mb, 850-mb flight-level winds in\r\nexcess of 100 kt, and dropsondes supporting surface winds of at\r\nleast 80 kt. However, these winds may have been associated with a\r\ntransient mesocyclone in the strong convection, as data from a\r\nsubsequent penetration showed a central pressure near 981 mb and\r\nlower winds. The initial intensity is now 75 kt based on 700-mb\r\nflight-level winds from the last aircraft pass, and there is a\r\nlarger than normal uncertainty about this value.\r\n\r\nConditions appear favorable for additional strengthening before the\r\nhurricane makes landfall over Central America on Thursday, and the\r\nintensity forecast shows modest strengthening for the first 12\r\nhours. Otto should weaken significantly while crossing southern\r\nNicaragua and northern Costa Rica, and it is expected to emerge into\r\nthe Pacific as a tropical storm between 24 and 36 hours.  Strong\r\neasterly vertical shear should prevent re-intensification, and the\r\nnew intensity forecast follows the trend of the previous forecast in\r\nshowing a slow decay to a remnant low by 120 hours.  However, it\r\nshould be noted that the Pacific portion of the intensity forecast\r\nlies near the low end of the intensity guidance.\r\n\r\nOtto is moving a little faster with the initial motion now 275/8.\r\nThe hurricane should make landfall over southern Nicaragua or\r\nnorthern Costa Rica sometime on Thursday.  After landfall, a strong\r\nlow- to mid-level ridge to the north should steer the cyclone\r\nwestward to west-southwestward through 96 hours.  Near the end of\r\nthe forecast period, Otto or its remnants should approach the\r\nwestern end of the ridge and turn west-northwestward. The track\r\nguidance remains in good agreement, and the new forecast track is a\r\nslightly faster version of the previous track.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0300Z 11.2N  82.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1200Z 11.2N  83.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  25/0000Z 10.9N  85.2W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  25/1200Z 10.5N  87.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 48H  26/0000Z 10.0N  89.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0000Z  9.5N  94.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0000Z  9.5N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/0000Z 11.0N 103.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-11-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nOtto continues to produce an area of deep convection over the\r\ncenter, but it is difficult to tell if there have been any\r\nstructural changes to the cyclone without microwave or aircraft data\r\novernight. Dvorak estimates at 06Z were T4.5/77 kt from SAB and\r\nT4.0/65 kt from TAFB, with the 06Z UW-CIMSS ADT estimate at 72 kt.\r\nThe initial intensity is held at 75 kt for this advisory based on\r\nthe higher satellite estimates and continuity. An Air Force Reserve\r\nHurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Otto later this morning.\r\n\r\nThere is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before\r\nOtto makes landfall in about 12 hours. After landfall, quick\r\nweakening is expected while the center moves across Central America,\r\nand Otto is expected to emerge into the eastern Pacific by 24 h as a\r\ntropical storm. Gradual weakening is forecast after that time, due\r\nto moderate to strong vertical shear, and this weakening trend is\r\nalso shown in most of the global model guidance. The new NHC\r\nintensity forecast is similar to the previous one and near the low\r\nend of the TC intensity guidance late in the period. This forecast\r\nends up closest to the FSU Superensemble by day 5, and shows Otto as\r\na remnant low at that time.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/07, as Otto is under the steering\r\ninfluence of a mid-level ridge centered over Cuba and the Bahamas.\r\nAs as mid/upper-level trough lifts out of the Gulf of Mexico, the\r\nridge will build westward and amplify during the next 3-4 days. This\r\npattern should result in an increase in forward speed and a motion\r\nsomewhat south of due west for the next 72 hours. By the end of the\r\nperiod, Otto or its remnant low should turn west-northwestward as it\r\nrounds the western side of the weakening ridge. While there is\r\ngeneral agreement on this scenario, there remains some spread in the\r\ntrack guidance. In particular, the latest ECMWF solution has shifted\r\nnorth and is slower than the rest of the guidance, especially\r\ncompared to the GFS, which is faster and farther south. The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is largely an update of the previous one but trends a\r\nlittle faster following the latest consensus. This track is close to\r\nthe ECMWF/GFS blend at days 3 through 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/0900Z 11.2N  82.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  24/1800Z 11.1N  83.9W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  25/0600Z 10.6N  86.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  25/1800Z 10.2N  88.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/0600Z  9.8N  90.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/0600Z  9.5N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/0600Z 10.0N 101.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/0600Z 11.5N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-11-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n1000 AM EST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter plane penetrated the eye of\r\nOtto around 1200 UTC this morning and indicated that the\r\nhurricane was intensifying. The estimated central pressure dropped\r\nto 976 mb and the flight-level wind at 700 mb peaked at 108 kt while\r\nthe SFMR winds reached 90 kt. Since that time, satellite imagery\r\nshowed that the hurricane cloud pattern has become better organized\r\nwith a distinct eye in both convectional and microwave imagery, and\r\nthe Data-T numbers reached 5.5 on the Dvorak scale. On this basis,\r\nthe initial intensity has been set at 95 kt.\r\n\r\nThere is an opportunity for some additional strengthening before\r\nOtto makes landfall during the next several hours. However,\r\nweakening should begin after the eye moves farther inland\r\nacross Central America. Otto is expected to emerge over the\r\neastern Pacific in about 12 to 24 h as a tropical storm. Otto should\r\ncontinue to weaken as it moves over the eastern pacific given that\r\nstrong shear is forecast to prevail in that region, and the cyclone\r\nshould become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The\r\nNHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one.\r\n\r\nSatellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Otto is moving\r\ntoward the west or 270 degrees at 8 kt.  The hurricane is\r\ntrapped within easterly flow associated with a strong high\r\npressure to the north, and since this high is forecast to persist,\r\nthe hurricane should continue on a general west to west-southwest\r\ntrack for the next 3 days. After that time, a much weaker Otto\r\nshould turn to the west-northwest around the western edge of\r\nthe high. The track guidance is very consistent with this\r\nscenario and there is no need to deviate from the previous NHC\r\nforecast. The forecast track continues to be very close to the\r\nmulti-model consensus.\r\n\r\nNHC thanks the crew of the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters for\r\nflying and providing valuable data on Thanksgiving Day.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/1500Z 11.0N  83.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\r\n 12H  25/0000Z 10.8N  84.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  25/1200Z 10.3N  87.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 36H  26/0000Z  9.8N  89.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1200Z  9.5N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1200Z  9.0N  98.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1200Z 10.0N 102.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  29/1200Z 11.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Otto","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-11-24 21:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and radar data from Nicaragua indicate that\r\nHurricane Otto made landfall at approximately 1800 UTC today along\r\nthe extreme southern coast of Nicaragua, just north of the town\r\nof San Juan de Nicaragua. The peak intensity at the time of landfall\r\nwas estimated to be at least 95 kt and the central pressure was\r\nestimated at 975 mb. This makes Otto the southernmost landfalling\r\nhurricane in Central America on record.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. Otto is located inland\r\nover extreme southern Nicaragua, just north of the border with Costa\r\nRica. Easterly steering flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge\r\nlocated over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Mexico is\r\nexpected to keep Otto or its remnants moving in a westward to\r\nwest-southwestward direction throughout the forecast period. The\r\nglobal and regional models are in good agreement on this track\r\nscenario, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the\r\nprevious forecast track, mainly due to the more northward initial\r\nposition of Otto.\r\n\r\nOtto is forecast to weaken rapidly while the hurricane moves farther\r\ninland over the rough terrain of southern Nicaragua and northern\r\nCosta Rica tonight. Otto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm\r\nby the time it emerges over the eastern North Pacific in about 12 h,\r\nand maintain that intensity during the 24-96 hour period. The ECMWF,\r\nUKMET, and Canadian models continue to weaken Otto throughout the\r\nforecast period, especially after 48 hours when the cyclone is\r\nforecast to interact with a dry Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event.\r\nErosion of the inner-core convection and wind field is expected from\r\nthis negative interaction, resulting in dissipation of Otto by\r\n48-72 h. In contrast, the GFS model keeps the gap-wind event away\r\nfrom Otto and strengthens the cyclone back to hurricane status by\r\n48 h and beyond. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast will\r\nremain similar to the previous advisory, and more closely follows\r\nthe Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which is well below all of the\r\nother intensity forecast models.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Otto is going to be torrential rainfall,\r\nwhich will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides. Reports of\r\nmudslides across northern Costa Rica have already been received from\r\namateur radio operators in that area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  24/2100Z 11.0N  84.3W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  25/0600Z 10.7N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...OVER WATER\r\n 24H  25/1800Z 10.2N  88.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/0600Z  9.8N  91.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  26/1800Z  9.5N  93.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  27/1800Z  9.4N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  28/1800Z 10.5N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  29/1800Z 12.1N 105.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-11-25 03:00:00","Key":"AL162016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162016\r\n900 PM CST THU NOV 24 2016\r\n\r\nRadar data from Las Nubes, Nicaragua, indicate that the core of Otto\r\nhas remained well organized since landfall, with an eye still\r\ndiscernible.  On the other hand, the convective clouds associated\r\nwith the cyclone have warmed considerably since landfall.  There\r\nhave been no surface observations from the core, so the initial\r\nintensity is reduced to a somewhat uncertain 60 kt based on the\r\ndecay in the satellite appearance.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 265/11.  Otto is located over\r\nnorthwestern Costa Rica and should emerge into the Pacific during\r\nthe next few hours.  Easterly steering flow on the south side of a\r\ndeep-layer ridge located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and\r\nsouthern Mexico is expected to keep Otto moving in a westward to\r\nwest-southwestward direction for the next 72 hours or so.  After\r\nthat time, the cyclone or its remnants are expected to reach the\r\nend of the ridge and turn northwestward.  The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous track through 72 hours, then is shifted a\r\nlittle to the left of the track based on a shift in the consensus\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nDuring the first 36 hours over the Pacific, Otto is likely to be\r\nover warm sea surface temperatures in an environment of moderate to\r\nstrong easterly vertical wind shear.  The intensity forecast during\r\nthis time will show a slow weakening in agreement with the previous\r\nforecast due to the uncertainties in the strength of the shear.\r\nHowever, given the level of organization it would not be surprising\r\nif some intensification occurred.  Around 48 hours, the cyclone is\r\nlikely to encounter cooler sea surface temperatures which should\r\ncause a faster weakening.  From 72-120 hours, Otto is expected to\r\nmove over warmer water with decreasing shear at the same time it\r\nencounters a much drier air mass.  The intensity forecast uses the\r\npremise that the dry air will cause the system to decay and thus\r\ncalls for Otto to be a remnant low by 120 hours.  It should be\r\nnoted, though, the the intensity forecast after 48 hours remains\r\nnear the lower edge of the guidance.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat from Otto will continue to be torrential\r\nrainfall, which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides.\r\n\r\nSince Otto has maintained itself as a tropical cyclone all the way\r\nacross the land mass of Central America, based on National Weather\r\nService and World Meteorological Organization protocols, it will\r\nretain the name Otto when it moves over the eastern Pacific in a few\r\nhours. Product headers will change to eastern Pacific headers\r\nbeginning with the next complete advisory at 0900 UTC. The\r\nintermediate advisory at 0600 UTC will be issued under an Atlantic\r\nheader.  The ATCF identifier will change from AL162016 to EP222016\r\nat 0900 UTC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 10.9N  85.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 10.5N  87.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 10.0N  90.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z  9.6N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z  9.4N  96.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z  9.5N 102.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 11.0N 105.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/0000Z 13.0N 106.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-11-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nCorrected for Central Standard Time instead of Central Daylight\r\nTime in product header.\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Otto is rather ragged this morning after the\r\ncirculation moved offshore of Central America. Shortwave infrared\r\nimagery suggests that there may now be some tilt to the circulation,\r\nwith the low-level center possibly located south of the mid-level\r\ncenter. However, this is quite uncertain given the lack of microwave\r\nimagery overnight. Based on this apparent decrease in organization,\r\nthe initial intensity is set to 50 kt, a little below the latest\r\nDvorak estimates of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is problematic. Most of the guidance suggests\r\nthat Otto will maintain its current intensity for the next 48 hours\r\nor so while the cyclone moves over SSTs of 28-29C but with\r\ncontinued southeasterly shear of 15-20 kt. Through this time the\r\nNHC intensity forecast is near or a bit below the IVCN intensity\r\nconsensus. By day 3, the shear begins to decrease, but the\r\natmosphere dries out as Otto interacts with outflow from a Gulf of\r\nTehuantepec gap wind event. The global models show Otto weakening\r\nlate in the period, and that trend is reflected in the official\r\nforecast, which continues to show Otto becoming a remnant low at day\r\n5. However, given the uncertainty in the current structure of Otto\r\nand the interplay between several competing environmental factors\r\nduring the forecast period, confidence in the intensity forecast is\r\nlower than usual.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 265/12. I\r\nshifted the initial position a little to the south to account for\r\nthe possible tilt in the circulation mentioned above. This resulted\r\nin a southward shift of the track guidance envelope and the NHC\r\nforecast even though the synoptic reasoning has not changed. An\r\namplifying mid-level ridge will steer Otto south of due west at\r\naround 15 kt for the next 48 hours. Then, as the ridge weakens late\r\nin the period, a slowing forward speed and gradual poleward turn are\r\nexpected. The new NHC track is close to the latest multi-model\r\nconsensus, but lies north of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 10.5N  86.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 10.1N  88.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z  9.5N  91.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z  9.2N  94.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z  9.0N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z  9.3N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 10.5N 106.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/0600Z 12.5N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-11-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n900 AM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nMicrowave and conventional satellite imagery shows that Otto's\r\ncloud pattern is a little better organized with a mid-level eye and\r\nvery deep convection surrounding the center.  Estimates from\r\nTAFB and SAB are 3.5 on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, the\r\ninitial intensity is set at 55 kt. The intensity forecast continues\r\nto be uncertain. While global models show a gradual decay of the\r\ncyclone, other intensity guidance show a steady state or even\r\nslight intensification.  The shear is a little bit strong for\r\nsignificant intensification primarily during the next 48 to 72\r\nhours. After that time, the shear is expected to decrease, but the\r\nenvironment is forecast to dry out. The NHC forecast follows\r\nin general the intensity consensus during the first few days, and\r\nthen calls for a weakening trend by the end of the forecast period\r\nfollowing the solution of the global models and the previous NHC\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\nOtto is moving toward the west or 265 degrees at 14 kt within the\r\neasterly flow associated with a strong mid-level high over Mexico.\r\nThis steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next 2 to 3\r\ndays, so a general west or even west-southwest track is anticipated.\r\nBy the end of the forecast period, Otto should be located on the\r\nsouthwestern edge of the high and should then begin to turn to the\r\nnorthwest and north. In contrast with the intensity guidance, the\r\ntrack models are in good agreement, increasing the confidence in\r\nthe track forecast.  The NHC forecast follows very closely the\r\nmultimodel consensus and is basically in the middle of the tight\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 10.3N  88.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 10.0N  90.1W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z  9.5N  93.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z  9.3N  96.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z  9.2N  99.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z  9.7N 105.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 11.0N 107.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 13.0N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-11-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nThe shear has increased over the cyclone and now the center is\r\nlocated on the eastern edge of the weakening convection. However,\r\nthe circulation is still vigorous with cyclonically curved bands\r\nover the western semicircle. Given that the cloud pattern has become\r\nless organized, the initial intensity has been lowered to 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is uncertain. Global models continue to\r\ngradually damp out the cyclone while the statistical guidance keeps\r\nthe cyclone with little change in wind speed. Otto will remain\r\nembedded within easterly shear and a dry environment, and since\r\nthe intensity consensus is now trending toward a weaker cyclone, the\r\nNHC forecast calls for gradual weakening.\r\n\r\nAs anticipated, Otto is moving south of due west or 260 degrees at\r\nabout 14 kt. The cyclone continues to be south of a strong mid-level\r\nridge over Mexico, and this steering pattern will force Otto to\r\nmove on a general west-southwest to west track for the next 3 days.\r\nAfter that time, Otto will be located on the southwestern edge of\r\nthe high, and it should then begin to turn to the northwest and\r\nnorth with a decrease in forward speed.  The track models are in\r\ngood agreement with this solution, and the confidence in the track\r\nforecast is high. The NHC forecast is just to the north of the\r\nmultimodel consensus and on the northern edge of the guidance\r\nenvelope. This is not a significant change from the previous NHC\r\nforecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z  9.9N  89.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z  9.5N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z  9.0N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z  9.0N  97.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z  9.0N 100.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z  9.5N 105.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 11.0N 107.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/1800Z 12.5N 108.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-11-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n900 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2016\r\n\r\nOtto is showing the effects of 20-25 kt of easterly vertical wind\r\nshear, as the center is located near the eastern edge of the main\r\nconvective area.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nremain 55 kt, and there is a recent estimate of 47 kt from the\r\nCIMSS satellite consensus technique.  Based on these data, the\r\ninitial intensity remains 50 kt.\r\n\r\nThere are a lot of negative environmental factors in the intensity\r\nforecast.  In the first 12-24 hours, these include moderate to\r\nstrong shear and abundant dry air seen in water vapor imagery near\r\nOtto.  At 24-36 hours, the cyclone is likely to move across an area\r\nof cooler sea surface temperatures.  Finally, from 72-120 hours Otto\r\nor its remnants should encounter more dry air and upper-level\r\nconvergent flow.  Given these factors, it is not a surprise that the\r\nglobal models forecast Otto to meet a quick demise.  On the other\r\nhand, the SHIPS and LGEM models forecast a slower decay and suggest\r\nOtto could still be a tropical cyclone at 120 hours.  The new\r\nintensity forecast will lean a little more toward the global models\r\nand show lower intensities than the previous forecast, with the\r\ncyclone forecast to weaken to a depression at 96 hours and to a\r\nremnant low at 120 hours.  However, if the global models are right\r\nboth of these events could occur earlier.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 255/14.  The cyclone continues to be south of\r\na strong deep-layer ridge over Mexico, and this steering pattern\r\nwill force Otto to move on a general west-southwestward to westward\r\ntrack for the next 2-3 days.  After that time, Otto or its remnants\r\nwill be located near the southwestern edge of the ridge, which\r\nshould result in a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in\r\nforward speed.  The track guidance remains in good agreement with\r\nthis scenario, although there is some divergence in how sharply the\r\nsystem will turn northward at 120 hours.  The new forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous track through 96 hours, then it lies between\r\nthe previous track to the west and the consensus models to the east\r\nat 120 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z  9.7N  90.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z  9.2N  92.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z  8.9N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z  8.8N  98.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z  8.8N 101.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 10.0N 106.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 11.5N 107.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n120H  01/0000Z 13.0N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-11-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016\r\n\r\nEasterly vertical shear of around 20 kt continues to take a toll on\r\nOtto, with the low-level center partly exposed to the east of the\r\nconvective canopy. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt for\r\nthis advisory, in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimate from\r\nSAB.\r\n\r\nThe shear is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with\r\nthe cyclone encountering a progressively drier environment. As a\r\nresult, all of the global models show Otto dissipating in the next\r\n2-3 days. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little\r\nlower, and is below most of the TC intensity guidance given the\r\nglobal model trends. Remnant low status is shown in 4 days with\r\ndissipation forecast at day 5, but I would not be surprised if\r\nboth of these occurred sooner.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 260/16. A fast westward to west-\r\nsouthwestward motion is expected for the next 24 to 36 hours, as\r\nOtto is steered by an expansive mid-level ridge to the north. The\r\nridge will weaken after 48 hours, which should result in Otto (if it\r\nstill exists) turning west-northwestward and then northwestward\r\nprior to dissipation. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted\r\nsouth of the previous one, following the trend of much of the\r\nguidance, but still lies north of the latest GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z  9.2N  92.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z  8.7N  94.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z  8.3N  97.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z  8.1N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z  8.4N 103.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z  9.5N 106.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Otto","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-11-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n900 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past\r\nseveral hours and it appears that the system is degenerating in a\r\ntrough of low pressure. It is very difficult to ascertain if there\r\nis a circulation by inspecting the conventional satellite imagery\r\nor even earlier microwave data. Based on continuity and recent\r\nDvorak estimates, the initial intensity is estimated generously at\r\n40 kt.  Given the prevailing strong shear and the current trend,\r\nadditional weakening is forecast, and Otto is anticipated to become\r\na trough or a remnant low in about 48 hours or sooner.  This is the\r\nsolution provided by the UK, ECMWF and GFS global models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is uncertain given the difficulty in locating\r\nthe center. The best estimate is 260 degrees at 14 kt. The cyclone\r\nis south of a strong ridge of high pressure, and this pattern should\r\ncontinue to steer the system on a general westward track until\r\ndissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z  9.0N  94.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z  8.6N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z  8.3N  99.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z  8.3N 101.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1200Z  8.7N 104.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 10.0N 107.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Otto","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-11-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP222016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nREMNANTS OF OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222016\r\n300 PM CST SAT NOV 26 2016\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of Otto has continued to deteriorate during the\r\npast several hours, and satellite images indicate that the system\r\nhas degenerated into an elongated trough of low pressure.\r\nEnvironmental conditions are unfavorable for regeneration while the\r\nthe remnants of Otto continue to move westward embedded within the\r\nlow-level flow.\r\n\r\nFor additional information on the remnants of Otto please see High\r\nSeas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z  8.7N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...REMNANTS OF OTTO\r\n 12H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-04-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSubtropical Depression One Discussion Number   1\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n1100 AM AST Wed Apr 19 2017\r\n\r\nThe non-tropical low over the north central Atlantic which has\r\nbeen tracked by NHC for the past few days has developed organized\r\nconvection mainly in a curved band southeast of the center. The\r\nsystem is still embedded within an upper-low, the outflow is minimal\r\nand the strongest winds are removed from the center of circulation.\r\nConsequently, the low is being classified as a subtropical\r\ndepression with an initial intensity of 30 kt. These winds are based\r\non recent ASCAT data. It is anticipated that shear and cold waters\r\nwill not allow intensification, and the subtropical depression is\r\nexpected to become absorbed by a large extratropical cyclone in\r\nabout 36 hours or sooner.\r\n\r\nThe subtropical depression is moving toward the north-northeast at\r\nabout 10 kt. A gradual turn to the north and north-northwest\r\naround the approaching extratropical low is forecast for the next\r\n24 hours or so.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 31.9N  40.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 32.8N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 35.0N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-04-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSubtropical Depression One Discussion Number   2\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n500 PM AST Wed Apr 19 2017\r\n\r\nThe subtropical depression's cloud pattern has changed little in\r\norganization during the day and it consists of an exposed low-level\r\ncenter with moderate convection within a curved band over the\r\neastern semicircle.  The initial intensity is still estimated at 30\r\nkt. Given the prevailing strong shear and the cold sea surface\r\ntemperatures, no strengthening is forecast before the subtropical\r\ncyclone becomes absorbed on Thursday by an approaching extratropical\r\nlow.\r\n\r\nThe subtropical depression is moving toward the north-northeast and\r\nnorth at about 10 kt.  A general northward track, around the\r\napproaching extratropical low, is expected tonight and early\r\nThursday.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 32.4N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 34.0N  40.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-04-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSubtropical Depression One Discussion Number   3\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n1100 PM AST Wed Apr 19 2017\r\n\r\nThe subtropical depression has changed little in strength since\r\nformation occurred earlier today.  Deep convection is confined to a\r\nsmall area over the northwestern quadrant.  A pair of recent ASCAT\r\npasses indicated that the maximum winds are still near 30 kt.  These\r\ndata also showed that the wind field of the system has contracted\r\nsince the earlier ASCAT passes this morning.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been moving northeastward at 10 kt during the past 6\r\nto 12 hours.  A large extratropical cyclone is approaching the\r\nsystem from the west-northwest, and it should cause the depression\r\nto turn northward and then northwestward overnight and on Thursday.\r\nLittle change in strength is likely before the system dissipates\r\ndue to cold water and continued moderate shear. The models are in\r\nexcellent agreement, and show the extratropical low absorbing\r\nthe subtropical depression, or its remnants, in a day or so.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 33.2N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 35.3N  39.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Subtropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-04-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nSubtropical Depression One Discussion Number   4\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n500 AM AST Thu Apr 20 2017\r\n\r\nData from nearby drifting buoys indicate that the subtropical\r\ndepression is now moving over sea-surface temperatures of 19C or\r\nless. These cooler waters have resulted in a significant weakening\r\nand erosion of the inner core convection during the past few hours.\r\nIn contrast, curved outer band convection has been increasing in the\r\neastern semicircle. Intensity estimates at 0600Z were ST1.5/25 kt\r\nfrom TAFB and ADT T3.1/47 kt from UW-CIMSS. Although it is possible\r\nthat the system could have reached subtropical storm intensity\r\naround 0300-0500Z when a donut-ring of moderate convection\r\ncompletely encircled the low-level circulation center, the recent\r\nrapid erosion of the central convection argues for maintaining an\r\nintensity of 30 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is now moving a little west of due north at 12 kt. As a\r\nlarge extratropical cyclone located to the west of the depression\r\ncontinues to amplify and dig southeastward over the next 24-48\r\nhours, the subtropical cyclone should turn toward the northwest\r\nlater today, and move west-northwestward to westward tonight and on\r\nFriday as a shallow remnant low. A 24-h position has been added\r\nbased on the 00Z ECMWF and GFS models now showing the depression\r\npersisting as a well-defined, shallow low pressure system into\r\nFriday before it is absorbed by the aforementioned larger\r\nextratropical low.\r\n\r\nThe combination of decreasing sea-surface temperatures and\r\nincreasing southwesterly vertical wind shear ahead of the large\r\nextratropical low should act to steadily erode the associated\r\nconvection, resulting in the depression weakening to a remnant low\r\npressure system by tonight...if not sooner.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 34.4N  39.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 36.7N  41.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 38.0N  46.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-04-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression One Discussion Number   5\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n1100 AM AST Thu Apr 20 2017\r\n\r\nConventional satellite imagery indicate that the convection,\r\nalthough not very deep, has become more symmetric around the center,\r\nsuggesting that the subtropical cyclone has transitioned into a\r\ntropical depression. This is supported by AMSU data this morning\r\nthat shows that the system has developed a weak, but warm core. This\r\ntransition is a common process, and does not change the previous\r\nintensity or track forecasts that call for the depression to\r\nbecome a remnant low later today, and become absorbed by a larger\r\nlow tonight or early Friday.  It is estimated that the depression is\r\nproducing winds of 30 kt within some convective bands. Since the\r\ncirculation is already becoming elongated, a weakening trend is\r\nlikely to begin soon.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt, and this\r\ngeneral motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected\r\nto continue until dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 36.1N  40.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 38.0N  43.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-04-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   6\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n500 PM AST Thu Apr 20 2017\r\n \r\nI have to add one more surprise to my long hurricane forecasting\r\ncareer. Unexpectedly, the subtropical cyclone became a tropical\r\ndepression this morning, and then it intensified to a tropical\r\nstorm. This intensity estimate is based on the cloud pattern\r\npresentation on satellite imagery which shows moderate thunderstorm\r\nactivity surrounding an eye-type feature, and a convective ring in\r\nmicrowave imagery.  Initial intensity is set at 40 kt, although\r\nestimates from TAFB suggest that the winds could have reached 45 kt\r\naround 1800 UTC. Since that time, the cloud pattern has deteriorated\r\nsomewhat and winds probably have diminished.  Despite the\r\nintensification, Arlene is still forecast by all global models to\r\nbecome absorbed by a nearby developing extratropical cyclone on\r\nFriday.\r\n \r\nArlene is moving toward the west-northwest at 22 kt, while well\r\nembedded in the fast flow surrounding the extratropical low. This\r\ngeneral motion around the low is expected until dissipation on\r\nFriday.\r\n \r\nTropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second\r\none observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be\r\nnoted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible\r\nto detect prior to the weather satellite era.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  20/2100Z 37.7N  42.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 38.7N  45.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-04-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   7\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n1100 PM AST Thu Apr 20 2017\r\n\r\nDespite increasing involvement with a frontal zone, Arlene\r\ncontinues to produce organized convection in infrared imagery and to\r\nshow good low-level organization in microwave imagery.  A partial\r\nASCAT overpass showed a few 40 kt vectors well to the northeast of\r\nthe center, and based on this the initial intensity is increased to\r\n45 kt.  Unfortunately, the scatterometer data did not cover the\r\ncentral core and could not answer the question of whether the storm\r\nstill has a closed circulation.  Based on the available data, Arlene\r\nremains a tropical storm for this advisory.  However, it could\r\nbecome extratropical, lose convection and become post-tropical, or\r\ndegenerate into a trough at any time during the next 12 to 24 hours.\r\nThe official forecast has the system degenerating to a post-tropical\r\nlow in 12 hours and then dissipating as it is absorbed into a\r\nbaroclinic low.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 305/24.  Arlene is being steered by the\r\naforementioned deep-layer baroclinic low centered near 36N 48W, and\r\nthe tropical cyclone,  or its remnants, is expected to move in a\r\ncyclonic loop around this low for the next few days.\r\n\r\nTropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second\r\none observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be\r\nnoted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible\r\nto detect prior to the weather satellite era.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 39.4N  44.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 40.0N  48.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Arlene","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-04-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Arlene Discussion Number   8\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n500 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017\r\n\r\nArlene has maintained a small area of deep convection surrounding\r\nthe center of the cyclone, with some of the cloud tops as cold as\r\n-50 deg C. However, satellite trends over the past couple of hours\r\nindicate that the areal coverage of the convection has decreased\r\nsignificantly since the 0600 UTC satellite intensity estimates, an\r\nindication that Arlene is beginning to lose its tropical\r\ncharacteristics as the cyclone interacts with a frontal zone and\r\nalso moves over cooler water. Dvorak current intensity estimates\r\nremain at 45 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is now 270/27 kt.  Arlene has\r\naccelerated westward during the past 6 hours as the cyclone moves\r\naround the northern periphery of a larger deep-layer extratropical\r\nlow that has remained nearly stationary near 36N 48W. The small\r\ncyclone or its remnants are expected to move in a cyclonic loop\r\naround this low for the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nArlene is gradually running out of space within the narrow warm\r\nsector of the aforementioned occluded low pressure system, and\r\nmerger with one or more frontal zones is likely during the next 12\r\nhours. The new official intensity forecast continues the trend of\r\nthe previous advisory, which shows Arlene degenerating to a\r\npost-tropical cyclone by 12 hours, and dissipating by 24 hours when\r\nthe system is expected to be absorbed into the larger baroclinic\r\nlow.\r\n\r\nTropical storms in April are rare and Arlene is only the second\r\none observed in this month during the satellite era. It should be\r\nnoted, however, that this type of storm was practically impossible\r\nto detect prior to the weather satellite era.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 40.0N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 39.5N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 24H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Arlene","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-04-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Arlene Discussion Number   9\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012017\r\n1100 AM AST Fri Apr 21 2017\r\n\r\nArlene has become embedded within the circulation of a large\r\nextratropical cyclone, and lost most of its deep convection while\r\nsurrounded by cold air. The post-tropical cyclone will move toward\r\nthe southwest and south at about 20 kt until dissipation later\r\ntoday.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Arlene. Additional information on this\r\nsystem can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National\r\nWeather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01\r\nKWBC.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 39.3N  49.9W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 37.5N  51.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 24H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Two","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-06-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   1\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n500 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017\r\n\r\nThe disturbance over the deep tropical Atlantic has become better\r\norganized today, although a pair of ASCAT-A and B passes this\r\nmorning indicated that the system does not have a closed low-level\r\ncirculation, which isn't surprising given the fast translational\r\nspeed of the system.  The ASCAT passes showed peak winds of near\r\n30 kt well north of the center, and given that the environment is\r\nexpected to be conducive for some additional development before the\r\nshear increases in the eastern Caribbean Sea, strengthening is\r\nforecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm\r\nbefore reaching the Windward Islands in 36 to 48 hours.\r\n\r\nThe National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories\r\non disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose\r\nthe threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to\r\nland areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not\r\npossible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in\r\nadvisory products and are numbered from the same list as\r\ndepressions. Because of the threat to the Windward Islands,\r\nadvisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and\r\nthe appropriate warnings have been issued by the respective\r\ngovernments in the Windward Islands. Advisory packages will continue\r\nuntil the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for land areas\r\nsufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a tropical\r\ncyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories would apply.\r\nUsers should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is\r\ngenerally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe disturbance will be steered quickly westward to west-\r\nnorthwestward over the next several days to the south of a mid-level\r\nsubtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.  The NHC track\r\nforecast is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks.\r\nThere is a fair bit of across-track spread in the model guidance,\r\nwhich isn't surprising given the lack of a well-defined center.\r\nHowever, given that tropical storm conditions are expected to extend\r\nwell north of the center, users should not focus on the exact track\r\nof the center, and the track forecast is of lower certainty than\r\nusual.\r\n\r\nMost of the intensity guidance shows mostly modest strengthening\r\nduring the next 36 hours, with the system moving over SSTs of 27-28C\r\nand the deep-layer shear at 10 kt or less.  The NHC forecast shows\r\nthe system peaking at 45 kt, in agreement with the intensity model\r\nconsensus.  Quick weakening is expected after that time as southerly\r\nshear increases dramatically while the system moves into the eastern\r\nCaribbean Sea. The system is forecast to become a remnant low by 72\r\nhours and dissipate by day 4.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z  7.5N  50.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  19/0600Z  8.2N  53.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z  9.5N  57.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 10.6N  60.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 11.9N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 13.5N  71.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Two","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-06-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   2\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n1100 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern associated with the disturbance has\r\ncontinued to improve since the previous advisory, with a curved\r\nconvective band now wrapping more than halfway around the alleged\r\ncenter. As a result, the initial intensity has been increased to 35\r\nkt, consistent with a TAFB Dvorak estimate of T2.5/35 kt.  The\r\noverall environment is expected to be conducive for some additional\r\ndevelopment for the next 24-36 hours before southwesterly vertical\r\nwind shear increases to more than 20 kt by 48 hours and beyond\r\nacross the eastern Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is expected to\r\nbe a tropical storm before reaching the Windward Islands in 36 hours\r\nor so. The system is forecast to become a remnant low by 72 hours\r\nand dissipate by day 4 due to quite hostile upper-level winds. The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and\r\nclosely follows the consensus model IVCN.  An Air Force Reserve\r\nreconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance\r\nMonday afternoon.\r\n\r\nThe National Hurricane Center now has the option to issue advisories\r\non disturbances that are not yet tropical cyclones, but which pose\r\nthe threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane conditions to\r\nland areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy this was not\r\npossible. These systems are known as Potential Tropical Cyclones in\r\nadvisory products and are numbered from the same list as\r\ndepressions. Because of the threat to the Windward Islands,\r\nadvisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and\r\nthe appropriate warnings have been issued by the respective\r\ngovernments in the Windward Islands. Advisory packages will continue\r\nuntil the threat of tropical-storm-force winds for land areas\r\nsufficiently diminishes, although if the system becomes a tropical\r\ncyclone, the normal rules for discontinuing advisories would apply.\r\nUsers should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is\r\ngenerally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains 280/20 kt. The disturbance is\r\nexpected to be steered westward to west-northwestward at around 20\r\nkt for the next couple of days along the southern periphery of a\r\nstrong deep-layer ridge located across most of the subtropical and\r\ntropical Atlantic. The new NHC track forecast is close to the\r\nprevious advisory and the consensus model TVCN through 48 hours, and\r\nthen lies a little south of the previous track at 72 hours due to\r\nexpected weakening and decoupling of the low- and upper-level\r\ncirculations. Given that tropical storm conditions are expected to\r\nextend well north of the center, users should not focus on the exact\r\ntrack of the center, and the track forecast is of lower certainty\r\nthan usual.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z  7.9N  52.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  19/1200Z  8.7N  55.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 24H  20/0000Z  9.9N  58.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 11.1N  62.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 12.1N  65.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 13.5N  73.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Two","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-06-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   3\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n500 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with the disturbance hasn't changed\r\nmuch overall, with a fairly compact cluster of deep convection near\r\nthe estimated center location.  The Dvorak intensity estimate from\r\nTAFB remains at 35 kt, and this value will be used for the advisory\r\nintensity.  The system has well-defined upper-level outflow over\r\nthe northern semicircle and vertical shear is forecast by the\r\ndynamical guidance to remain low for the next day or so.  Therefore\r\nsome intensification is forecast and the disturbance is likely to\r\nbecome a tropical cyclone later today.  After the system moves into\r\nthe Caribbean, it should encounter an increasingly hostile\r\nenvironment of strong vertical shear associated with an upper-level\r\ntrough over the west-central Caribbean.  The global models are in\r\ngood agreement on the system dissipating over the Central\r\nCaribbean, and the official intensity forecast is slightly below\r\nthe model consensus at 48-72 h in deference to the global model\r\npredictions.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion continues to be around 280/20 kt.  The track\r\nforecast philosophy is basically unchanged from the previous\r\nadvisory package.  A well-defined ridge to the north of the\r\ndisturbance should continue to steer the system westward to\r\nwest-northwestward at a fast pace.  By 48-72 hours, a slightly more\r\nwestward track is likely while the weakening system moves more with\r\nthe low-level tradewind flow.  The official track forecast is close\r\nto the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nAn Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate\r\nthe system later today.  Observations from the aircraft should\r\ndetermine whether a well-defined center exists, i.e. whether the\r\ndisturbance has become a tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z  8.4N  54.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  19/1800Z  9.3N  57.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 10.4N  61.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 11.5N  64.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 12.4N  67.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 13.5N  74.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Two","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-06-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   4\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2017\r\n\r\nThe convective pattern of the disturbance has become better\r\norganized this morning with a ragged band that wraps more than half\r\nway around its center.  The intensity is assessed at 35 kt based\r\nupon the Dvorak 2.5 CI number from TAFB.  These winds are likely\r\nonly occurring in the northern semicircle due to the very quick\r\ntranslational velocity of the system.\r\n\r\nIntensity model guidance is in good agreement that the\r\nenvironmental conditions may allow for some slight intensification\r\nin the next day or so with the system embedded within low vertical\r\nshear and an atmosphere that is marginally moist and unstable.\r\nBeginning in about 36 hours, however, the shear should go up to\r\neither moderate (if the GFS is correct) or high (if the ECMWF is\r\ncorrect) levels because of an approaching tropical upper-\r\ntropospheric trough.  Because of this increasing shear, all guidance\r\nshows the system dissipating before 72 hr and so does the official\r\nforecast.  An alternative scenario - given that the disturbance has\r\ntracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus far - is that\r\nit could remain south of guidance and dissipate over Venezuela and\r\nnever reach the Caribbean Sea.\r\n\r\nThe quick motion also makes it ambiguous as to whether the system\r\nhas a closed, earth-relative circulation center.  An Air Force\r\nHurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system later\r\ntoday to help in this determination.  It is still anticipated that\r\nthe system will become a tropical storm, but it may be running out\r\nof time if it interacts significantly with Venezuela.\r\n\r\nThe system is moving toward the west at a very rapid 22 kt due to\r\nthe fast low to mid-level tradewinds south of a strong Bermuda\r\nhigh.  It is likely that a rapid motion toward the west\r\nor west-northwest will continue until dissipation.  The official\r\ntrack forecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique\r\nand is slightly south compared with the previous advisory.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z  8.8N  56.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  20/0000Z  9.5N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 10.6N  63.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 11.7N  66.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 12.6N  70.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   5\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n500 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017\r\n\r\nAn Air Force WC-130 invest mission this afternoon into the\r\ndisturbance was able - after much effort - to find a well-defined\r\nclosed circulation.  The location of the center was substantially\r\nfarther west than anticipated, as the system is now moving toward\r\nthe west-northwest at a very quick 26 kt.  Because the system\r\nhas developed a well-defined center, it is now considered a tropical\r\nstorm and has been named Bret.\r\n\r\nConvection continues to display robust bands on the northwestern\r\nand southeastern quadrants of the disturbance, as seen in the\r\ngeostationary satellite and Trinidad radar imagery.  The Hurricane\r\nHunter mission also found maximum surface winds of about 35 kt,\r\nwhich agrees with the Dvorak 2.5 CI number from TAFB.  These winds\r\nare only occurring in the northern semicircle due to the very quick\r\ntranslational velocity of the system.\r\n\r\nWhile the convective structure has been impressive today, it\r\nappears that the window of opportunity for the system to\r\nfurther develop is closing.  Between interaction with the landmass\r\nof Venezuela and increasing vertical shear beginning in about a day,\r\nthe intensity model guidance does not show any significant\r\nintensification.  The official intensity forecast is steady state\r\nfor about a day, followed by gradual weakening until dissipation in\r\nabout three days. An alternative scenario - given that the\r\ndisturbance has tracked left, or equatorward, of the guidance thus\r\nfar - is that it could remain south of the forecast track and\r\ndissipate over Venezuela and never reach the Caribbean Sea.\r\n\r\nThe system is anticipated to slow somewhat, but still move at a\r\nrapid rate toward the west-northwest until dissipation, steered by\r\nstrong trade winds south of the Bermuda high.  The official track\r\nforecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique and is\r\nfaster compared with the previous advisory, due to the farther west\r\ninitial position.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z  9.4N  59.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 10.1N  62.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 11.3N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 12.2N  68.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 13.0N  73.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   6\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n1100 PM AST Mon Jun 19 2017\r\n\r\nThis evening's satellite presentation shows an improved cloud\r\npattern with a small central dense overcast feature developing just\r\nto the north of the circulation center.  Earlier microwave imagery\r\nand this afternoon's aircraft reconnaissance fix indicate that the\r\nvertical structure of the cyclone is tilted toward the north due to\r\nthe increasing southerly shear.  No change in the current satellite\r\nintensity estimates from the previous advisory and the initial\r\nintensity remains at 35 kt.  Interaction with the coast of Venezuela\r\nand persistent southerly shear produced by a mid-Atlantic trough\r\ndigging into the central Caribbean Sea should initiate a weakening\r\ntrend during the next 24 hours, or so.  The large-scale models\r\ncontinue to show Bret dissipating over the Central Caribbean in\r\nabout 2 days and the official forecast follows suit.  The intensity\r\nforecast is an update of the previous advisory and is based on the\r\nIVCN consensus.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is estimated to be 285/20 kt, a little slower\r\nthan 6 hours ago.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged\r\nfrom the previous advisory.  A well-established mid-tropospheric\r\nridge to the north of Bret should steer the system generally\r\nwest-northwestward during the next 24 hours.  Afterward, a more\r\nwestward track is likely while a weaker, more shallow system moves\r\nwithin the low-level trade winds.  The NHC track forecast is close\r\nto the previous one and very similar to the latest model consensus,\r\nTVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 10.0N  61.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 11.0N  63.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 12.1N  67.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 12.8N  71.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 13.5N  75.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Roberts\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   7\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n500 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017\r\n\r\nBret continues to have a fairly well-organized appearance on\r\nsatellite imagery, but the presentation on radar from Trinidad and\r\nVenezuela is not so impressive, with a lack of well-defined banding\r\nfeatures.  The structure of the cyclone continues to be\r\ncharacterized by a northward tilt of the vortex with height, so\r\nthe center is estimated to be located near the southern side of the\r\nCDO.  The initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory,\r\nwhich is the mean of Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB.  The\r\nintensity forecast reasoning remains about the same as before.  No\r\nsignificant short-term strengthening seems likely while the\r\ncirculation interacts with Venezuela today.  In 24 hours or so, a\r\nweakening trend should commence due to strong south-southwesterly\r\nshear associated with an upper-level trough over the Caribbean Sea.\r\nThe global models continue to be in good agreement that the system\r\nwill dissipate over the west-central Caribbean in 2-3 days.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is near or slightly above the intensity\r\nmodel consensus, IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe forward motion has slowed just a bit from yesterday and is now\r\naround 290/18 kt.  There continues to be little change to the track\r\nforecast philosophy.  The flow on the southern side of a\r\nwell-defined mid-level subtropical ridge should steer the cyclone on\r\na west-northwestward to westward track for the next couple of days.\r\nThe official track forecast lies between the latest ECMWF and GFS\r\nsolutions and is close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 10.6N  62.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 11.5N  65.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 12.4N  68.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 13.3N  72.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 13.6N  76.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bret","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Bret Discussion Number   8\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n1100 AM AST Tue Jun 20 2017\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Bret is becoming somewhat\r\nelongated due to southerly wind shear, and consequently, T-numbers\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB have decreased a little bit. However, Bret\r\nproduced sustained surface winds of 40 kt when it passed south of\r\nGrenada several hours ago. On this basis, the initial intensity\r\nis kept at 40 kt in this advisory, but these winds are occuring\r\nonly to the north of the center.  The intensity forecast remains\r\nunchanged, and the cyclone is expected to weaken as it moves toward\r\na hostile environment of strong southerly shear caused by an\r\nupper-trough in the central Caribbean Sea. Bret will most likely\r\ndegenerate into a low or an open trough in a day or so, if not\r\nsooner. This is consistent with most of the dynamical models.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center is difficult to locate, the best estimate of\r\nthe initial motion is toward the west-northwest or 290 degrees at 18\r\nkt. The cyclone is well embedded within the easterly flow around the\r\nAtlantic subtropical ridge, and Bret will likely continue on this\r\nsame general motion until dissipation. This forecast in the middle\r\nof the guidance envelope, and is consistent with the previous NHC\r\ntrack forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 11.6N  64.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 12.4N  67.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 13.2N  70.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 14.0N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 14.4N  79.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Bret","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nRemnants Of Bret Discussion Number   9\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022017\r\n500 PM AST Tue Jun 20 2017\r\n\r\nSatellite images and surface observations indicate that Bret no\r\nlonger has a closed circulation and has degenerated into a tropical\r\nwave. The wave is likely producing 30 to 35 knot sustained winds\r\nover water in squalls to the north of the area of minimum pressure.\r\nThe wave is expected to continue moving westward across the\r\nCaribbean where strong southerly shear prevails, and regeneration of\r\nthe system is not anticipated. Most of the models agree and\r\ndampen the wave in a day or two.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Bret, and additional information on\r\nthis system can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by\r\nthe National Hurricane Center, and in the High Seas Forecasts issued\r\nby the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO\r\nheader FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 12.0N  67.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...REMNANTS\r\n 12H  21/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Three","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-06-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   1\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n400 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017\r\n\r\nA pair of ASCAT passes between 15 and 16Z showed that the\r\ndisturbance over the Gulf of Mexico has an area of tropical-storm-\r\nforce winds within a large area of deep convection 100 to 150 n mi\r\nnortheast of a broad low center. The ASCAT data and visible\r\nsatellite imagery show that the center is not well defined, and in\r\nfact multiple low-level swirls are evident in the latest imagery. An\r\nAir Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently\r\ninvestigating the system and will provide more data on its wind\r\nstructure.\r\n\r\nThe NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and\r\nwarnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but\r\nwhich pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane\r\nconditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy\r\nthis was not possible.  These systems are known as Potential\r\nTropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the\r\nsame list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central\r\nGulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical\r\nCyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued.\r\nUsers should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is\r\ngenerally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nThe initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on the ASCAT data. The\r\ninitial pressure is set to 1002 mb based on extrapolated data from\r\nthe aircraft. Only modest strengthening is expected given the\r\nmoderate to strong southwesterly shear of around 30 kt expected to\r\npersist over the system during the next couple of days. The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is close to the latest intensity consensus aid.\r\n\r\nGiven the broad nature of the low, the initial motion estimate is a\r\nrather uncertain 350/08. During the first 12 to 24 hours the system\r\nwill move northward to north-northwestward due to the a weakness in\r\nthe subtropical ridge over the northern Gulf and then the system\r\nshould slow and turn more northwestward as it interacts with an\r\nupper-level low currently situated off the Texas coast.  The details\r\nof this interaction will have significant implications on the track\r\nof the system, and there remains a fair amount of model spread.  The\r\nHWRF is on the right side of the guidance envelope, with a track\r\ntoward southeastern Louisiana while the UKMET and ECMWF show a\r\nsolution toward southwest Louisiana or extreme eastern Texas. For\r\nnow, the NHC forecast lies in the middle of the guidance envelope\r\nand a little left of the TCVA consensus aid. Given the disorganized\r\nnature of the circulation and the fact that the wind and rain\r\nhazards extend well north and east of the center, users are\r\nencouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 24.7N  88.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 26.0N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 27.2N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 27.9N  91.4W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 28.7N  92.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 32.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 35.5N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Three","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-06-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   2\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2017\r\n\r\nEarlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance\r\naircraft investigating the central Gulf of Mexico disturbance found\r\nthat the multiple swirls that this system possessed had consolidated\r\ninto a single low-level circulation center with a pressure of about\r\n1000 mb. However, since the circulation was and still is elongated\r\nnorth-to-south, the large low pressure system is being maintained as\r\na potential tropical cyclone for this advisory cycle.\r\n\r\nThe NWS now has the option to issue advisories, watches, and\r\nwarnings for disturbances that are not yet a tropical cyclone, but\r\nwhich pose the threat of bringing tropical storm or hurricane\r\nconditions to land areas within 48 hours. Under previous policy\r\nthis was not possible.  These systems are known as Potential\r\nTropical Cyclones in advisory products and are numbered from the\r\nsame list as depressions. Because of the threat to the central\r\nGulf coast, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical\r\nCyclone Three and the appropriate watches/warnings have been issued.\r\nUsers should be aware that forecast uncertainty for disturbances is\r\ngenerally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond\r\n48-72 hours.\r\n\r\nAfter stalling this afternoon due to re-organization of the system's\r\ncenter, the low now appears to be moving 330/07 kt based on recent\r\nconventional and microwave satellite fixes. The new forecast track\r\nhas been shifted to the west of the previous advisory track through\r\n48 hours, mainly due to the more westward initial position.\r\nOtherwise, no other significant changes were made to the previous\r\nforecast track. The low is expected to move generally northwestward\r\nthrough 48 hours around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer\r\nridge located over the western Atlantic and Florida. After that, the\r\nsystem is forecast to turn northward around the ridge axis, moving\r\ninto the south-central United States. The new NHC track forecast is\r\na little to the right of the consensus model TVCA. Given the still\r\ndisorganized nature of the circulation, and the fact that the wind\r\nand rain hazards extend well north and east of the center, users are\r\nencouraged to not focus on the details of the track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial intensity remains 35 kt based on reconnaissance wind\r\ndata and observations from nearby ships 3ETA7 and 3FZO8. Only slight\r\nstrengthening is expected for the next 36 hours or so due to\r\nmoderate to strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt.\r\nBy 48 hours, the shear is forecast to decrease to 20 kt or less,\r\nbut the system will already be close to land at that time and\r\nprobably not be able to take advantage of the lower shear\r\nconditions. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous\r\nadvisory and the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 24.4N  89.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 25.4N  90.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 26.4N  91.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 27.1N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 28.3N  92.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 31.8N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 35.2N  90.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Three","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-06-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   3\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n400 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017\r\n\r\nNighttime infrared satellite imagery suggests that the circulation\r\nassociated with the low pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico is\r\ngradually becoming better defined.  However, the system is\r\nstruggling to maintain organized convection near the center, and\r\nthe radius of maximum winds remains large.  Based on this, the\r\nsystem is still maintained as a potential tropical cyclone.\r\n\r\nThe low is moving erratically northwestward around the southwestern\r\nportion of a deep-layer ridge located over the western Atlantic and\r\nFlorida.  The large-scale models suggest this ridge will strengthen\r\nsome during the next 36 hours or so and cause the low to turn a\r\nlittle more westward.  This would be followed by a northward turn\r\naround the western end of the ridge and eventual recurvature into\r\nthe westerlies.  Overall, there has been a left shift of the track\r\nguidance models since the previous advisory.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is also shifted left, but it is to the right of the model\r\nconsensus, especially at 36-48 h.  Given the nature of the\r\ncirculation, though, and the fact that the wind and rain hazards\r\nextend well north and east of the center, users are encouraged to\r\nnot focus on the details of the track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe initial intensity remains 35 kt based on partial scatterometer\r\noverpasses and continuity from the previous advisory.  Significant\r\nstrengthening is unlikely due to strong vertical shear caused by an\r\nupper-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and\r\nentrainment of dry air into the system.  However, the large-scale\r\nmodels suggest slight strengthening before landfall, and thus the\r\nintensity forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory.  One\r\nchange from the previous advisory is that it now appears more\r\nlikely that the system would become a subtropical cyclone than a\r\ntropical cyclone due to the current structure of the low and\r\ninteraction with the aforementioned trough.  That being said,\r\ndevelopment into a tropical cyclone remains possible.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 24.8N  90.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 25.7N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 26.6N  92.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 27.5N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 28.9N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 32.5N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 36.5N  88.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Potential Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Three","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-06-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPotential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number   4\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017\r\n\r\nVisible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the\r\ncirculation of the low has become better organized since yesterday,\r\nbut still lacks a well-defined center. The central pressure appears\r\nto have fallen to around 999 mb based on observations from NOAA buoy\r\n42001, and some deep convection has begun developing a little closer\r\nto the low's circulation center. For now the system is being\r\nmaintained as a potential tropical cyclone, however, the system\r\ncould be classified as a tropical or subtropical cyclone later\r\ntoday.\r\n\r\nThe current intensity is maintained at 35 kt based largely on\r\ncontinuity pending an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission\r\ninto the system later this morning. Only limited strengthening is\r\nforecast before the system moves inland due to the strong vertical\r\nshear over the cyclone caused by an upper-level low centered off\r\nthe Texas coast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and is close to the intensity consensus aid.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 320/09 as the\r\nthere are still multiple low-level cloud swirls circulating around a\r\nmean center, and some erratic motion is still possible until a\r\nbetter-defined center forms. However, the system should be steered\r\ngenerally northwestward over the next 36 hours or so as it interacts\r\nwith the aforementioned upper-level low and then turns more\r\nnorth-northwestward by 48 hours as the system begins to recurve\r\naround the mid-level ridge to the east. The NHC track forecast is a\r\nlittle faster than the previous one in the short range, and shows\r\nthe system moving inland over western Louisiana and eastern Texas by\r\n48 hours. After that time, the system should recurve into the\r\nmid-latitude flow and accelerate northward and northeastward across\r\nthe lower Mississippi Valley and into the southern and central\r\nAppalachians on days 3 and 4 before dissipating.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard from this disturbance is expected to be heavy\r\nrainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast.\r\nGiven the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain\r\nhazards extend well north and east of the center, users are\r\nencouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 25.9N  90.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 26.7N  91.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 27.4N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 28.6N  93.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 30.1N  94.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 34.0N  92.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 37.5N  84.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND\r\n120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-06-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   5\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n400 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017\r\n\r\nThe low-level circulation of Cindy is exposed well to the southwest\r\nof the main convective band that extends along most of the\r\nnortheastern Gulf of Mexico.  Data from the aircraft and marine\r\nobservations indicate two areas of high winds. The first is located\r\nin the convection about 150 n mi northeast of the center, and the\r\nsecond is in a band about 60 n mi northwest of the center.  Based\r\non a blend of the aircraft and surface data, the initial intensity\r\nis set to 40 kt for this advisory.  The central pressure of 999\r\nmb is based on extrapolated data from the aircraft.  Only limited\r\nstrengthening is forecast during the next 12 to 24 hours as strong\r\nshear continues over the system, with gradual weakening expected as\r\nthe system approaches the coast and moves inland.  The new NHC\r\nforecast is similar to much of the guidance and the intensity\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\nThe circulation has been stationary as it has organized over the\r\npast 6 hours, but the model guidance suggests that a northwest\r\nmotion should resume soon as Cindy interacts with an upper-level low\r\nsituated to its northwest.  This motion should continue through 24\r\nhours, and then Cindy will recurve around the western edge of the\r\nsubtropical ridge as it moves inland in 36 to 48 hours, and\r\naccelerates into the mid-latitude westerlies over the lower\r\nMississippi Valley. The new NHC track has been adjusted a little to\r\nthe left, following the latest trend in the guidance, and lies near\r\nor a little to the left of the latest multi-model consensus aids.\r\nGiven the nature of the circulation and the fact that wind and rain\r\nhazards extend well north and east of the center, users are\r\nencouraged not to focus on the details of the track forecast.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall\r\nover portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could\r\ncause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more\r\ninformation on the flooding hazard, see products from your local\r\nNational Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 25.7N  90.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 26.6N  91.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 27.4N  92.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 28.9N  93.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 30.8N  94.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 35.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-06-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   6\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017\r\n\r\nData from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and nearby\r\nship D5DY4 indicate that Cindy has strengthened to 50 kt based on\r\npeak SFMR and flight-level winds of 51 kt and 62 kt, respectively,\r\nand the ship report of winds near 50 kt. The NHC greatly\r\nappreciates the observations reported by ships C6CE8, ABVZ5, D5DY4,\r\nV7MO2, and WHED, which have been navigating through and near the\r\ncenter of Cindy for the past several hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 310/06 kt based on recent\r\nreconnaissance fixes. A northwestward motion is expected for the\r\nnext 24 hours, after which Cindy is expected to recurve northward\r\nand then northeastward around the western portion of the strong\r\nsubtropical ridge located over the southeastern United States. The\r\n18Z model guidance has shifted slightly to the east, and the new\r\nNHC track has been adjusted a little to the east as well, close to\r\nthe consensus track model TVCA. Given the nature of the circulation\r\nand the fact that wind and rain hazards extend well north and east\r\nof the center, users are encouraged not to focus on the details of\r\nthe track forecast.\r\n\r\nAlthough Cindy has strengthened this evening, little change in\r\nstrength is expected for the next 12 hours or so, followed by\r\ngradual weakening thereafter due to the combination of strong\r\nvertical wind shear and abundance of dry mid-level preventing the\r\ndevelopment of significant inner-core convection. The new NHC\r\nintensity follows the trend of the previous advisory and is a\r\nlittle above the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nThe 34-kt wind radii were expanded in the northwest and northeast\r\nquadrants based on recon wind data, and observations from coastal\r\nand offshore buoy data. This has required and eastward extension of\r\nthe Tropical Storm Warning along the north-central Gulf coast.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall\r\nover portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could\r\ncause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more\r\ninformation on the flooding hazard, see products from your local\r\nNational Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 26.4N  91.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 27.0N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 28.1N  93.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 29.8N  93.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 31.4N  93.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 34.7N  90.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-06-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   7\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017\r\n\r\nCindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite\r\nimages this morning.  The deep convection is well-removed to the\r\nnorth and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a\r\nrather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles\r\neast of the center.  Water vapor imagery indicates that an\r\nupper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the\r\nnorthwest of Cindy's center, suggesting that the system has at least\r\nsome subtropical characteristics.  The current intensity is held at\r\n50 kt for this advisory, although surface observations and a recent\r\nASCAT overpass suggest that this may be generous.  Global model\r\nforecasts indicate significant shear, with some mid-level dry air\r\nwrapping around the circulation, over the next day or so.  These\r\nfactors, along with the current lack of convection near the center,\r\nshould result in some weakening of the system prior to landfall,\r\nperhaps more so than indicated in the NHC forecast.  An Air Force\r\nReserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the cyclone\r\nsoon, to confirm the intensity and wind field.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt.\r\nCindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the\r\nmid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico\r\ncoast.  Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnant, should\r\naccelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United\r\nStates.  The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF\r\nand GFS and also leans toward the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus\r\nprediction.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall\r\nover portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could\r\ncause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.  For more\r\ninformation on the flooding hazard, see products from your local\r\nNational Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 27.3N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 28.0N  92.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 29.3N  93.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 30.9N  93.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 33.2N  92.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 36.0N  85.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-06-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   8\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n1000 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017\r\n\r\nCindy has the overall appearance of a subtropical cyclone this\r\nmorning with a convective cluster just northwest of the center and\r\nadditional convection in a ragged band well removed from the center\r\nin the eastern semicircle.  However, there is more convection near\r\nthe center than earlier, so the system remains a tropical cyclone on\r\nthis advisory. Regular water vapor imagery and experimental\r\nlow-level water vapor imagery from GOES-16 show that a significant\r\namount of dry air is present just east of the center, and this is\r\nlikely disrupting the convective organization.  Surface observations\r\nand reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show\r\nthat the maximum winds have decreased a little and are now near 45\r\nkt.  The data also show that the 34-kt wind radii have decreased\r\nover the northeastern quadrant.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is now 310/9.  There is little change in either\r\nthe track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the\r\nprevious advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move\r\nthrough a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the\r\nnorthwest Gulf of Mexico coast.  Later in the forecast period Cindy,\r\nor its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies\r\nover the eastern United States.\r\n\r\nGiven the presence of the dry air near the center and its affects\r\non the convection, little change in strength is expected before\r\nlandfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become\r\nabsorbed in a frontal system over the eastern United States just\r\nafter 72 h.\r\n\r\nWhile the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from\r\nintensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall\r\nthreat.  Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the\r\ncentral and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening\r\nflash flooding in some locations.  For more information on the\r\nflooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather\r\nService office and the Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 27.6N  92.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 28.5N  93.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 30.3N  93.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 32.3N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 34.3N  91.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 37.0N  81.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-06-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number   9\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n400 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017\r\n\r\nCindy continues to have the overall appearance of a subtropical\r\ncyclone this afternoon.  However, the convective area just northwest\r\nof the center has become somewhat better organized based on coastal\r\nradar data, and the wind field has become smaller and more like a\r\ntropical cyclone.  Surface observations and reports from an Air\r\nForce Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the maximum winds\r\nremain near 45 kt, mainly in the northwestern quadrant.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 315/8.  There is again little change in either\r\nthe track forecast philosophy or the track forecast from the\r\nprevious advisory. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move\r\nthrough a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the\r\nnorthwest Gulf of Mexico coast, with landfall in southeastern Texas\r\nor southwestern Louisiana in less than 24 hours.  After 24-36 hours\r\nCindy, or its remnants, should accelerate northeastward in the\r\nwesterlies over the eastern United States.\r\n\r\nGiven the continued presence of dry air near the center, as shown by\r\nexperimental GOES-16 data, and its generally negative effects on the\r\ncentral convection, little change in strength is expected before\r\nlandfall. Cindy should weaken after landfall and eventually become\r\nabsorbed by a frontal system over the eastern United States just\r\nafter 72 h.\r\n\r\nWhile the aforementioned dry air is sufficient to keep Cindy from\r\nintensifying, it will do little to reduce the overall rainfall\r\nthreat.  Heavy rainfall is expected to continue over portions of the\r\ncentral and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening\r\nflash flooding in some locations.  For more information on the\r\nflooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather\r\nService office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 28.2N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 29.3N  93.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 31.3N  93.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 33.4N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 35.3N  88.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 38.5N  76.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP\r\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-06-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  10\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017\r\n\r\nCindy's overall convective pattern has changed little since the\r\nprevious advisory and still resembles a subtropical cyclone.\r\nHowever, earlier this evening a convective band wrapped around into\r\nthe southwestern quadrant and produced a sustained wind of 56 kt, a\r\ngust of 65 kt, and a pressure of 991.9 mb at elevated oil rig KHQI.\r\nUsing an adjustment factor of 80 percent yields an equivalent\r\nsurface wind of 45 kt, and that value is used for the advisory\r\nintensity. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will be\r\ninvestigating the cyclone shortly.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 340/06 kt.  The latest model guidance\r\nis tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so no\r\nsignificant changes were made on the advisory cycle. Cindy should\r\nturn northward early Thursday morning as the cyclone moves through a\r\nbreak in the deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends from the\r\nAtlantic Ocean westward along the Gulf coast to Louisiana and\r\nMississippi. Landfall is expected near the Louisiana-Texas border in\r\n6-12 hours.  After landfall occurs, Cindy is forecast to turn\r\nnorthward, and by 24-36 hours should accelerate northeastward across\r\nthe Tennessee River Valley and merge with a frontal system by 72 h.\r\n\r\nLittle change in strength is expected before Cindy makes landfall.\r\nThereafter, gradual weakening should occur until the cyclone\r\nmerges with a cold front over the eastern United States.\r\n\r\nThe primary threat associated with Cindy will be heavy rainfall,\r\nwhich could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations\r\nover portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, and also well\r\ninland. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products\r\nfrom your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 28.6N  93.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 30.1N  93.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 32.2N  93.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 34.2N  90.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 36.1N  85.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0000Z...MERGED WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Cindy","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-06-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number  11\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017\r\n\r\nRadar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with\r\nsurface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass\r\nLouisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast\r\nbetween Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago.\r\nThe observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now\r\naround 35 kt.  Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will\r\noccur and the system should become a depression later today, and be\r\nreduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight.  In 2-3 days, or\r\nsooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a\r\nfrontal zone over the eastern United States.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a little faster, and is about 360/10 kt.\r\nCindy should continue to move through a break in the subtropical\r\nridge today, and gradually turn toward the northeast and\r\neast-northeast as it encounters mid-level westerly flow over the\r\nnext couple of days.  The official track forecast lies between the\r\nGFS and ECMWF predictions.\r\n\r\nAlthough Cindy is weakening, it will continue to produce heavy\r\nrainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the\r\nsoutheastern and eastern United States, along with the potential\r\nfor life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.  For\r\nmore information on the flooding hazard, see products from your\r\nlocal National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather\r\nPrediction Center.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 29.9N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 31.4N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 33.4N  92.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 35.4N  89.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 37.0N  83.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Cindy","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-06-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Cindy Discussion Number  12\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032017\r\n1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017\r\n\r\nThe circulation of Cindy is already well inland and weakening. The\r\ninitial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt, although some areas\r\ncould still observe tropical-storm-force winds in gusts associated\r\nwith heavy squalls. Additional weakening is forecast, and Cindy\r\nwill degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow. Thereafter, the\r\ncyclone should become absorbed into a frontal zone over the\r\neastern United States.\r\n\r\nCindy is moving toward the north or 010 degrees at 11 knots. The\r\ncyclone should gradually turn toward the northeast and\r\neast-northeast as it becomes embedded within the prevailing\r\nmid-level westerly flow over the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nAlthough Cindy is a tropical depression, it will continue\r\nto produce heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast\r\nand the southeastern and eastern United States, along with the\r\npotential for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations.\r\nFuture information on this system can be found in Public Advisories\r\nissued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 PM CDT,\r\nunder AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 31.0N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 32.8N  93.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 35.0N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 37.0N  86.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-05-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression One-E Discussion Number   1\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n400 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the low pressure area located a few hundred\r\nmiles south-southwest of El Salvador has continued to become better\r\norganized, with developing convective banding features.  Also, data\r\nfrom a recent ASCAT overpass showed that a closed circulation has\r\ndeveloped.  Therefore advisories are being initiated on this system.\r\n The intensity is set at 30 kt in agreement with the scatterometer\r\nmeasurements and a Dvorak classification from SAB. The tropical\r\ncyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of SSTs near 30 deg C\r\nthrough the forecast period, and the global models show the system\r\nremaining beneath an upper-level anticyclone with well-defined\r\noutflow.  Thus, strengthening is likely and the official intensity\r\nforecast is a little below the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nGeostationary satellite and scatterometer fixes indicate that the\r\ninitial motion is 300/5 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to be\r\nsituated to the south of a mid-level anticyclone, centered over the\r\nsouthwestern Gulf of Mexico, for the next several days.  This\r\nsteering pattern should maintain a general west-northwestward motion\r\nthrough 72 hours or so.  Later in the forecast period, the\r\nanticyclone is predicted to weaken and this should induce a turn to\r\nthe north.  The official track forecast is roughly in the middle of\r\nthe dynamical track guidance, and is between the GFS and ECMWF\r\nsolutions.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  09/2100Z  9.3N  91.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  10/0600Z  9.7N  91.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  10/1800Z 10.1N  93.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  11/0600Z 10.5N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  11/1800Z 10.8N  95.3W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  12/1800Z 12.0N  96.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  13/1800Z 13.0N  96.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  14/1800Z 14.0N  96.0W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-05-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   2\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n1000 PM CDT Tue May 09 2017\r\n\r\nAlthough outer banding features have weakened somewhat since the\r\nprevious advisory, the inner-core convective pattern has improved,\r\nincluding the possible development of a small, mid-level eye feature\r\nas noted in 0059Z SSMI/S microwave data. The upper-level outflow is\r\nimproving and expanding in all quadrants, except to the east where\r\nis being restricted by upper-level easterly flow. Satellite\r\nclassifications are a consensus T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the\r\ndepression has been upgraded to tropical storm status. This makes\r\nAdrian the earliest tropical storm to form in the eastern North\r\nPacific basin during the satellite era.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/06 kt. Adrian is moving slowly\r\nwest-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layer\r\nridge located over the central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The\r\nglobal and regional models are fair agreement on this ridge pattern\r\nremaining basically static for the next 48-72 hours, so little\r\nchange in the west-northwestward motion of the tropical storm is\r\nexpected during that time. By 72 hours and beyond, the ridge to the\r\nnorth of Adrian is forecast to gradually weaken and eventually break\r\ndown by 120 hours as the large-scale, high-amplitude flow pattern\r\nacross the United States weakens and shifts eastward. This pattern\r\nchange is expected to result in weak southwesterly steering flow\r\ndeveloping, causing the cyclone to slow down significantly and turn\r\nnortheastward. The 12Z ECMWF model run does not develop the cyclone\r\nbeyond its current intensity, which results in a very shallow system\r\nbeing steered northeastward by increasing southwesterly low-level\r\nmonsoon flow by 72 hours and beyond. This scenario seems unlikely at\r\nthis time given that Adrian is forecast to strengthen into a\r\nhurricane and become more vertically deep, so less weight has been\r\nplaced on the weaker ECMWF solution. The official forecast track is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of\r\nthe various consensus models.\r\n\r\nEarlier scatterometer wind data and recent microwave satellite\r\nimagery indicate that Adrian has developed a small radius of maximum\r\nwinds of 25-30 nmi. This tight inner-core wind field, along with\r\nSSTs exceeding 30 deg C, a moist mid-level environment, and only\r\nmodest wind shear of 10-15 kt support steady intensification\r\nthroughout the forecast period. By 96-120 hours, increasing\r\nsoutherly to southwesterly vertical wind shear could disrupt the\r\nintensification process, but Adrian is expected to already be a\r\nhurricane by that time. The official intensity forecast follows the\r\nstrengthening trend of the previous advisory, but is a little\r\nstronger and is similar to the SHIPS model forecast due to the\r\nnon-development of Adrian noted in the HWRF and Navy COAMPS models,\r\nwhich is causing a low bias in the IVCN/ICON consensus models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0300Z  9.5N  92.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1200Z  9.8N  93.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0000Z 10.3N  94.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1200Z 10.8N  95.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0000Z 11.2N  96.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0000Z 12.1N  97.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0000Z 13.1N  96.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  15/0000Z 14.1N  96.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-05-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   3\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n400 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017\r\n\r\nAlthough the central convection has weakened during the past few\r\nhours, the overall cloud pattern has changed very little in\r\norganization. Satellite intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB\r\nremain at T2.5 on the Dvorak scale. However, an ASCAT pass around\r\n0400 UTC showed a few vectors of 40 kt, and this is the intensity\r\nassigned to Adrian.\r\n\r\nIt is interesting to note that the GFS is basically the only\r\ndynamical model that significantly intensifies Adrian. Both the HWRF\r\nand the ECMWF do not. In fact, the latest ECMWF weakens the cyclone\r\nto a broad area of low pressure within the next 5 days. Based on\r\ncontinuity, the fact that Adrian is moving over warm waters and\r\nthe shear is low, gradual strengthening is still forecast.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast, however, is a little lower than indicated in the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nThe best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or\r\n310 degrees at 6 kt.  Adrian is expected to be steered on this\r\ngeneral track by a ridge of high pressure over Mexico and Central\r\nAmerica.  However, these currents are forecast to collapse in about\r\n2 days leaving Adrian embedded within a very week steering flow.\r\nThe cyclone most likely will begin to meander well south of Mexico\r\nin 3 days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/0900Z 10.0N  92.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  10/1800Z 10.6N  93.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/0600Z 11.1N  94.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  11/1800Z 11.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  12/0600Z 12.0N  96.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  13/0600Z 12.5N  97.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 96H  14/0600Z 13.0N  97.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  15/0600Z 13.5N  96.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-05-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   4\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n1000 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017\r\n\r\nAdrian's satellite presentation is less organized than yesterday,\r\nwith little evidence of convective banding features along with a\r\nfew bursts of deep convection to the north and northwest of the\r\nestimated center.  Vertical cross-sections through the latest GFS\r\nmodel analysis indicate a significant tilt of the vortex from\r\nsoutheast to northwest with height.  This is consistent with\r\nanalyses from UW-CIMSS that show around 20-25 kt of mid-level\r\nsoutheasterly shear across the tropical cyclone.  This disruption\r\nof the vertical coherency of the system is likely one of the reasons\r\nthat Adrian has not strengthened much.  The current intensity is\r\nheld at 40 kt based on earlier scatterometer data, although the\r\nlatest Dvorak estimates and the disorganized cloud pattern suggest\r\nit might be a little weaker.  The global models do not call for\r\nAdrian to intensify over the next several days, but the\r\nstatistical/dynamical models still show the system becoming a\r\nhurricane within 72 hours.  The official intensity forecast is a\r\nlittle lower than the previous one and close to the latest SHIPS\r\nprediction, and is of low confidence.\r\n\r\nEven with high-resolution visible imagery, the center is difficult\r\nto locate.  Based mainly on microwave and scatterometer fixes, the\r\ninitial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 315/6 kt.  A mid-level\r\nridge to the north of Adrian should induce a northwestward to\r\nwest-northwestward motion for the next several days.  Later in the\r\nforecast period, the ridge is predicted to collapse, leaving the\r\ntropical cyclone in a region of very weak steering currents.\r\nBased on this expected evolution of the large-scale flow, the\r\nofficial track forecast shows no motion by days 4 and 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/1500Z 10.4N  92.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0000Z 10.8N  93.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1200Z 11.4N  94.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0000Z 11.9N  95.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1200Z 12.2N  96.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1200Z 12.7N  97.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1200Z 13.0N  97.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  15/1200Z 13.0N  97.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Adrian","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-05-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Adrian Discussion Number   5\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n400 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017\r\n\r\nAdrian is not a well-organized tropical cyclone, and it continues\r\nto lack vertical coherence.  Analyses from the GFS and ECMWF global\r\nmodels continue to show a pronounced southeast to northwest tilt\r\nwith height, likely due to significant mid-level southeasterly\r\nshear.  Visible satellite images show an unimpressive low-cloud\r\nswirl centered well to the southeast of a ragged area of deep\r\nconvection, which is apparently Adrian's center of circulation. The\r\nintensity is reduced to 35 kt based on Dvorak classifications from\r\nTAFB and SAB. The GFS and ECMWF models do not intensify the system,\r\nand in fact practically dissipate it in a few days.  HWRF shows only\r\nslight strengthening over the forecast period, and has been\r\nincreasingly less aggressive over the past few runs.  The SHIPS\r\nmodel continues to insist that Adrian will eventually become a\r\nhurricane.  Based on the current state of the tropical cyclone and\r\nthe dynamical guidance, the official intensity forecast has been\r\nsignificantly reduced in comparison to the previous ones. This is\r\nclose to the latest intensity model consensus, IVCN. Alternatively,\r\nif Adrian does not make a comeback soon, the system could dissipate.\r\n\r\nAfter relocating the past couple of working best track center\r\npositions southeastward to account for the current position\r\nestimate, the initial motion estimate is about 315/4 kt.  Adrian is\r\nexpected to turn toward the west-northwest, on the south side of a\r\nmid-level ridge, over the next couple of days. Thereafter the ridge\r\nis forecast to collapse, leaving the tropical cyclone embedded in\r\nweak steering currents.  The official track forecast, like the\r\nprevious one, shows the system slowing to a halt later in the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  10/2100Z 10.5N  92.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  11/0600Z 11.2N  93.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  11/1800Z 11.8N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  12/0600Z 12.2N  95.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  12/1800Z 12.5N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  13/1800Z 12.8N  97.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  14/1800Z 13.0N  97.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  15/1800Z 13.0N  97.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adrian","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-05-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n \r\nTropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number   6\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n1000 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017\r\n \r\nStrong southeasterly vertical wind shear has completely decoupled\r\nthe mid-/upper-level circulation from the low-level circulation,\r\nwith those two features now being separated by more than 250 nmi.\r\nMoreover, there has been no deep convection within 100 nmi of the\r\nexposed low-level circulation for more than 9 hours, and outflow\r\nboundaries have been noted moving southward and eastward toward the\r\nlow-level circulation center over the past few hours. The associated\r\nstable air behind those boundaries will likely prevent regeneration\r\nof any central deep convection in the near term, resulting in Adrian\r\nbecoming a remnant low by early Thursday. After 48 hours, the\r\nvarious dynamical and statistical models are in significant\r\ndisagreement on possible regeneration. The GFS, UKMET, CMC, SHIPS,\r\nand LGEM models are indicating regeneration into a significant\r\ntropical cyclone by 48 hours and beyond, whereas the ECMWF, HWRF,\r\nand Navy COAMPS models show Adrian remaining a shallow remnant low\r\nfor the next 5 days. Given that environmental conditions are\r\nexpected to be favorable with SSTs greater than 30C, a moist\r\nmid-level environment, and fairly low shear, the official intensity\r\nforecast is a middle-of-the-road blend between these two extremes.\r\nHowever, complete dissipation of this system is a very distinct\r\npossibility some time during the forecast period.\r\n \r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/04 kt.  Adrian is expected to\r\nmove slowly west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 24 to\r\n48 hours. The shallow system is forecast to turn more westward by 72\r\nhours and beyond, possibly even stalling and making erratic motion\r\ndue to the expected collapse of the steering currents as the\r\ndeep-layer ridge over Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico breaks down. The\r\nnew NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies\r\na little south of the TVCN consensus model, closer to the ECMWF\r\nsolution.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINIT  11/0300Z 10.5N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1200Z 11.1N  93.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/0000Z 11.7N  94.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/1200Z 12.1N  95.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/0000Z 12.4N  96.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 72H  14/0000Z 12.4N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  15/0000Z 12.4N  97.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  16/0000Z 12.4N  97.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n \r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Adrian","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-05-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Adrian Discussion Number   7\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n400 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017\r\n\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern has deteriorated significantly, and it now\r\nconsists of a broad swirl of low clouds. Most of the convection is\r\nwell removed to the north and is already over the coast of Mexico. I\r\nwas tempted to declare the system dissipated at this time and issue\r\nthe last advisory. However, it is prudent to confirm the rapid\r\nweakening with early visible images, and also to be sure that\r\nconvection does not redevelop near the center.\r\n\r\nThe GFS insists on intensification, but the ECMWF dissipates the\r\nsystem quickly. A compromise between these two models is to keep a\r\nweak and shallow remnant low drifting west-northwestward and then\r\nwestward within the low-level flow for the next several days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/0900Z 10.9N  93.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  11/1800Z 11.3N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/0600Z 12.0N  95.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  12/1800Z 12.5N  96.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/0600Z 12.5N  96.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/0600Z 12.5N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  16/0600Z 12.5N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Adrian","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-05-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP012017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Discussion Number   8\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012017\r\n1000 AM CDT Thu May 11 2017\r\n\r\nAdrian consists of a rather insignificant-looking swirl of low\r\nclouds with just a few isolated showers.  The system has been\r\ndevoid of significant deep convection since yesterday afternoon, so\r\nit is being declared a remnant low on this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is again 315/6 kt.  The post-tropical\r\ncyclone is likely to turn toward the west-northwest to the south of\r\na weak mid-level ridge over the next couple of days, and meander\r\nwithin weak steering flow to the south of Mexico later in the\r\nforecast period.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Adrian unless regeneration occurs.\r\nFor additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/1500Z 11.3N  93.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  12/0000Z 11.8N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  12/1200Z 12.5N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  13/0000Z 13.0N  96.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  13/1200Z 13.4N  97.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  14/1200Z 13.0N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  15/1200Z 12.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  16/1200Z 12.5N  98.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-05-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   1\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n1000 AM CDT Wed May 31 2017\r\n\r\nThe low pressure area located to the southeast of Acapulco, Mexico,\r\nhas developed multiple bands of deep convection, and various\r\nsatellite data suggest the system has a well-defined circulation.\r\nBased on these, the system is designated as Tropical Depression\r\nTwo-E.  The initial intensity of 25 kt is based on current\r\nsatellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB along with earlier\r\nscatterometer data.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 035/3.  A mid- to upper-level trough seen in\r\nwater vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the\r\ncyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36 h or so.  After\r\nthat, there is significant divergence in the track guidance.  The\r\nGFS, Canadian, and HWRF models move the cyclone inland over\r\nsoutheastern Mexico in 48-60 h, while the ECMWF and UKMET show the\r\nsystem stalling over the Pacific as a weak mid-level ridge builds\r\nto the north.  The latter part of the track forecast somewhat\r\nsplits the difference between these two solutions, showing the\r\ncyclone remaining over the Pacific but closer to the coast of\r\nMexico than forecast by the ECMWF and UKMET.\r\n\r\nThe depression is in an environment of 10-15 kt of southerly\r\nvertical wind shear, and the large-scale models suggests that this\r\ncondition should persist for the next 36-48 h.  After that, while\r\nthe shear may decrease the cyclone is likely to be close enough to\r\nthe mountains of southern Mexico to inhibit development.  The\r\nintensity forecast, which lies near the upper edge of the intensity\r\nguidance, calls for slow strengthening for the first 48 h followed\r\nby little change in strength through the remainder of the forecast\r\nperiod.\r\n\r\nThe forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a Tropical\r\nStorm Watch for a portion of the coast of Mexico at this time.\r\nHowever, heavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the\r\nbiggest threats from this system even if it makes landfall as a\r\ntropical storm.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/1500Z 13.9N  97.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0000Z 14.2N  97.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1200Z 14.6N  97.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0000Z 14.9N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1200Z 15.1N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  03/1200Z 15.5N  96.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  04/1200Z 15.5N  97.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  05/1200Z 15.5N  98.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-05-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   2\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n400 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017\r\n\r\nThe convective cloud pattern of the depression has improved a little\r\nduring the past several hours.  However, partial ASCAT overpasses\r\nand visible satellite imagery suggest the circulation is elongated\r\neast-to-west with the center likely near the western edge of the\r\ncentral convective mass.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\r\nand SAB have increased to 30 kt, so that will be the initial\r\nintensity.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone has been moving erratically, with the initial motion a\r\nsomewhat uncertain 045/2.  A mid- to upper-level trough seen in\r\nwater vapor imagery over northern Mexico is expected to steer the\r\ncyclone slowly northeastward for the next 36-48 h.  After that,\r\nthere is still divergence between the models on whether the\r\ncyclone, or its remnants, will continue northeastward over Mexico\r\nor stall near or south of the Mexican coast.  A major change since\r\nthe previous advisory is that the ECMWF now calls for the system to\r\nmove northeastward and make landfall in Mexico in about 24 h, which\r\nis faster than some of the other models.  However, the UKMET and\r\nthe UK Ensemble mean still show a westward turn after 36 h or so.\r\nGiven the change in the ECMWF, the new track forecast is shifted\r\nnorth of the previous track and now calls for the center to move\r\nonto the Mexican coast in 36-48 h.  Additional changes in the\r\nforecast track may be needed tonight if current model trends\r\ncontinue.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast is low confidence.  The environment of\r\nmoderate shear and warm water should allow gradual strengthening.\r\nThis is reflected in the intensity guidance and forecast, which\r\ncall for the system to become a tropical storm in about 24 h.\r\nHowever, the current structure and the possibility of land\r\ninteraction should limit intensification, and an alternative\r\nscenario based on the faster ECMWF landfall is that the system does\r\nnot become a tropical storm before reaching the Mexican coast.\r\nThe new forecast track requires significant changes in the latter\r\npart of the intensity forecast, which now calls for the cyclone to\r\ndissipate by 120 h due to passage over Mexico.  It should be noted\r\nthat if the center moves farther inland than currently forecast it\r\nshould result in earlier dissipation.\r\n\r\nHeavy rains and freshwater flooding are likely to be the biggest\r\nthreats from this system even if it makes landfall as a tropical\r\nstorm.  A Tropical Storm Warning could be required for portions of\r\nthe coast of Mexico tonight.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  31/2100Z 13.9N  97.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/0600Z 14.2N  97.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  01/1800Z 14.7N  97.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  02/0600Z 15.1N  96.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  02/1800Z 15.7N  96.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  03/1800Z 16.0N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 96H  04/1800Z 16.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-06-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   3\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n1000 PM CDT Wed May 31 2017\r\n\r\nGeostationary and microwave satellite imagery suggest that the\r\nlow-level circulation has become more symmetric and that the\r\nconvective organization has improved somewhat since the previous\r\nadvisory.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nremain below tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity is\r\nheld at 30 kt.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes from recent microwave images show that the depression\r\nis moving slightly faster than before or 045/5 kt.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to continue moving northeastward ahead of a mid- to\r\nupper-level trough over northern Mexico. The 18z runs of the GFS\r\nand HWRF have continued the trend of a faster northeastward motion\r\ntoward the coast of southeastern Mexico, and the NHC forecast has\r\nfollowed suit.  The new NHC track brings the center of the tropical\r\ncyclone onshore within 24 hours, and shows a continued north-\r\nnortheastward motion until dissipation over southern Mexico in 48\r\nhours, or sooner.  It should be noted that ECMWF and GFS bring\r\nmoisture and the mid-level center northward over the Gulf of Mexico\r\nlate this week, but the low-level center is expected to dissipate\r\nover the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico.\r\n\r\nThe depression is over warm water and within an environment of\r\nlight to moderate shear.  These conditions could allow for some\r\nstrengthening and the depression is forecast to become a\r\ntropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on\r\nThursday. After landfall, steady weakening is predicted and the\r\ncyclone is now forecast to become a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours,\r\nand dissipate shortly thereafter.\r\n\r\nHeavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides are likely to be the\r\nbiggest threat from this system even if it makes landfall as a\r\ntropical storm.  The new forecast has required the issuance of a\r\nTropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern\r\nMexico.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0300Z 14.5N  97.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1200Z 15.1N  96.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  02/0000Z 16.2N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  02/1200Z 17.2N  95.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  03/0000Z 18.0N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  04/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-06-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   4\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n400 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern does not appear to be better organized than\r\nseveral hours ago. It still consists of a comma-shaped convective\r\nband to the east with some disorganized clusters of thunderstorms\r\nnear the center.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB\r\nsupported tropical storm status, but given that there has been some\r\ndeterioration of the cloud pattern after the Dvorak estimates were\r\nmade, the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt in this advisory. The\r\ndepression only has a small opportunity to reach tropical storm\r\nstrength during the next 12 hours or so before the center reaches\r\nthe coast. In fact, a large portion of its broad circulation has\r\nalready moved inland. Once the center moves over the high terrain,\r\nweakening is anticipated.\r\n\r\nThe center has been difficult to locate despite several microwave\r\npasses during the past several hours. Given these low-confidence\r\nfixes, the best estimate of the initial motion is toward the\r\nnorth-northeast or 020 degrees at 6 kt. The cyclone is embedded\r\nwithin the southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid- to\r\nupper-level trough, and this pattern should continue to steer the\r\ncyclone on the same general north-northeast track until dissipation\r\nover the mountains of eastern Mexico.  Most of the reliable track\r\nguidance agree with this solution, although some models are faster\r\nthan others. After the dissipation of the low-level center, models\r\nbring moisture and some mid-level vorticity northward over the Gulf\r\nof Mexico.\r\n\r\nHeavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides continue to be\r\nthe biggest threat from this system. Since there is still a\r\npossibility that the depression becomes a tropical storm before\r\nlandfall, the Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of\r\nsoutheastern Mexico is still in effect.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/0900Z 15.2N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  01/1800Z 15.9N  96.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  02/0600Z 17.0N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  02/1800Z 18.0N  95.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-06-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   5\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Two-E has become a little less organized since\r\nthe previous advisory.  The central convection has decreased\r\nsomewhat, with the primary convection now in a large band over the\r\nsoutheastern semicircle.  In addition, visible imagery suggests that\r\nthe low-level circulation is becoming less well defined.  While\r\nsatellite intensity estimates are at tropical storm strength, the\r\ninitial intensity will remain 30 kt based on the decay in the cloud\r\npattern and continuity from the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nWhile no intensification has occurred since yesterday, there is\r\nstill potential for the system to become a tropical storm before\r\nlandfall.  After landfall, the low-level circulation should\r\ndissipate by 36 h over the mountains of Mexico.  The large-scale\r\nmodels suggest that disturbed weather could occur over the western\r\nGulf of Mexico during the next few days in association with the\r\nremnants of the depression.\r\n\r\nRecent microwave imagery has helped better locate the center, and\r\nthe initial motion is 020/5. Southwesterly flow to the east of a\r\nbroad mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico should\r\nsteer the cyclone generally northeastward through landfall and\r\ndissipation.  The new forecast track is similar to, but slightly\r\nslower than the previous track.\r\n\r\nHeavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides continue to be the\r\nbiggest threats from this system, and Puerto Angel, Mexico, has\r\nreported more than 6 inches of rain since yesterday.  Given the\r\npotential for the depression to become a tropical storm, the\r\nTropical Storm Warning for a portion of the coast of southeastern\r\nMexico remains in effect.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/1500Z 15.4N  97.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0000Z 16.0N  96.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  02/1200Z 16.9N  96.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-06-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number   6\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n400 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017\r\n\r\nASCAT scatterometer data near 1600 UTC showed an area of 35-40 kt\r\nwinds within 30 n mi of the center in the western semicircle.\r\nBased on this, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm\r\nBeatriz.  The center is nearing the coast at this time and the\r\ncentral convection is poorly organized, so no additional\r\nintensification is anticipated before landfall.  Beatriz should\r\nweaken quickly over mountainous terrain after landfall, and it is\r\nforecast to dissipate by 36 h.  The latest ECMWF and Canadian model\r\nruns suggest the possibility the remnants of the cyclone could\r\nregenerate over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  However, strong\r\nvertical wind shear forecast over the Gulf by all of the large-scale\r\nmodels makes this an uncertain scenario at best.\r\n\r\nEven with the help of visible imagery and scatterometer data, there\r\nis some spread in the center fix locations.  The initial motion is\r\nthus a rather uncertain 025/4.  Southwesterly flow to the east of a\r\nbroad mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern Mexico should\r\nsteer the cyclone generally northeastward through landfall and\r\ndissipation.  The new forecast track is again similar to, but\r\nslightly slower than the previous track.\r\n\r\nHeavy rains, flash flooding, and mudslides will continue to be the\r\nbiggest threats from this system.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  01/2100Z 15.5N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  02/0600Z 16.3N  96.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  02/1800Z 17.4N  95.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-06-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Beatriz Discussion Number   7\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 01 2017\r\n\r\nRecent microwave imagery and surface observations from southern\r\nMexico indicate that the center of Beatriz made landfall just west\r\nof Puerto Angel around 0000 UTC.  A ship just east of the center\r\nreported 40 kt winds around 2100 UTC, but since the circulation\r\nhas crossed the coast, it is assumed some weakening has occurred\r\nand the initial intensity is set at 35 kt.\r\n\r\nBeatriz is forecast to move north-northeastward in southwesterly\r\nflow to the east of a mid- to upper-level trough over northwestern\r\nMexico.  This should take the cyclone farther inland and rapid\r\nweakening is expected tonight.  The low-level circulation should\r\ndissipate over the high terrain over southeastern Mexico on Friday.\r\n\r\nThe primary concern with Beatriz and its remnants remains heavy\r\nrainfall that is expected to continue over portions of southeastern\r\nMexico during the next day or two. These rains will likely produce\r\nflash flooding and mudslides.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0300Z 16.0N  96.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  02/1200Z 16.9N  96.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-06-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Beatriz Discussion Number   8\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n400 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017\r\n\r\nIt is unclear at the moment if Beatriz still has a center of\r\ncirculation.  Since landfall, the deepest convection has migrated\r\naway from the supposed center and is now oriented linearly along the\r\ncoast of Oaxaca, likely due to onshore flow impinging on the\r\nmountain slopes of southern Mexico.  For now, advisories will be\r\ncontinued on Beatriz as a 30-kt depression, but it's entirely\r\npossible that Beatriz is no longer a tropical cyclone.  Visible\r\nsatellite imagery after sunrise should help provide a better\r\nassessment.\r\n\r\nIf it hasn't done so already, Beatriz is forecast to dissipate later\r\ntoday while it moves north-northeastward over the mountains of\r\nsoutheastern Mexico.  Even after dissipation, lingering moisture is\r\nlikely to contribute to continued heavy rainfall and possible flash\r\nfloods and mudslides for another day or two over southeastern\r\nMexico.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/0900Z 16.5N  96.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  02/1800Z 17.3N  95.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Beatriz","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-06-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP022017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Beatriz Discussion Number   9\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022017\r\n1000 AM CDT Fri Jun 02 2017\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Beatriz\r\nhas degenerated to a poorly-defined remnant low over southern\r\nMexico, and this will be the last advisory.  While the low should\r\ndissipate over land tonight, the remnants of Beatriz are expected to\r\nmove over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or\r\ntwo, where current indications are that strong upper-level winds\r\nshould prevent re-development.\r\n\r\nEven after dissipation, lingering moisture is likely to contribute\r\nto continued heavy rainfall and possible flash floods and mudslides\r\nfor another day or two over southern and southeastern Mexico.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  02/1500Z 17.2N  96.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  03/0000Z 18.1N  95.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  03/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-06-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   1\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n400 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017\r\n\r\nAlthough the deep convection associated with the low pressure\r\nsystem south of Mexico has decreased a little during the day, an\r\nearlier ASCAT overpass revealed a well-defined surface circulation.\r\nTherefore, the system is being designated as a tropical depression\r\nat this time.  The current intensity is set at 30 kt, although the\r\nscatterometer data suggest that this could be a bit generous.  The\r\ntropical cyclone is expected to remain in an environment of\r\nmoderate easterly shear for the next day or two, and only slow\r\nstrengthening is expected.  The official intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the model consensus.  The system is expected to dissipate\r\nover the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico in a few days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is a rather uncertain 320/4 kt.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to move generally northwestward to west-northwestward to\r\nthe west of a mid-level ridge over the next couple of days, and\r\nmove inland by Tuesday or sooner.  The official track forecast is a\r\nblend of the latest ECMWF, HWRF, and GFS solutions.\r\n\r\nVery heavy rains and the threat of flooding and mudslides should\r\nbe the primary concern with this system.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  11/2100Z 14.5N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/0600Z 14.7N  95.6W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  12/1800Z 15.2N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  13/0600Z 15.6N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  13/1800Z 15.9N  97.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-06-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   2\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2017\r\n\r\nDeep convection associated with the depression has waned\r\nconsiderably since the previous advisory due to the entrainment of\r\ndry air and moderate easterly vertical wind shear, resulting in the\r\nlow-level circulation center now being fully exposed. Dvorak\r\nsatellite intensity estimates are T1.5 from TAFB and T1.0 from SAB,\r\nso the initial intensity is being maintained at 30 kt, which is\r\nprobably generous.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 335/04 kt. After a northward jog\r\nduring the previous 6-hour period, the depression appears to have\r\nslowed down and turned back toward the north-northwest during the\r\npast few hours. The cyclone is expected to gradually turn toward the\r\nnorthwest tonight and early Monday, and possibly even turn toward\r\nthe west-northwest by Monday night as a ridge to the northeast of\r\nthe cyclone builds slowly westward. However, most of the reliable\r\nguidance models indicate that the steering currents are expected to\r\nbe weak at less than 5 kt for the next 48 hours. As a result, some\r\nerratic motion will be possible. The official track forecast lies to\r\nthe right of the previous advisory track and a little to the left of\r\nthe consensus models to account for the slower initial motion.\r\n\r\nThe depression is forecast to remain over SSTs of about 29 deg C\r\nand under the influence of moderate easterly shear of around 15 kt\r\nfor the next 24-36 hours. Therefore, some gradual strengthening is\r\nexpected, especially given the tight, low-level inner-core structure\r\nnoted in visible and other satellite channels. The previous\r\nintensity forecast calling for the cyclone to reach tropical storm\r\nstatus before landfall occurs has been retained in this advisory,\r\nand the official intensity forecast closely follows the consensus\r\nmodel IVCN. Although the cyclone is expected to be inland at 36 and\r\n48 hours, tropical depression status is shown at those times due to\r\nthe possibility of 30-kt winds remaining along or just offshore of\r\nthe southern coast of Mexico. The system is expected to dissipate\r\nover the mountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico by 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy\r\nrainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in\r\nmountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0300Z 15.2N  94.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1200Z 15.6N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0000Z 16.0N  95.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  13/1200Z 16.3N  96.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 48H  14/0000Z 16.4N  96.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 72H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-06-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   3\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n400 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery indicates that the depression is poorly organized\r\nat this time, with episodic bursts of convection occurring near the\r\ncenter and in the northwestern semicircle.  This is likely due to\r\nthe influence of moderate easterly vertical wind shear. Satellite\r\nintensity estimates are unchanged from earlier, and there have been\r\nno observation from near the center since the last advisory.  Based\r\non the above, the initial intensity remains 30 kt.\r\n\r\nThe motion has been somewhat erratic, and the best estimate of a\r\nlonger-term motion is 325/3.  The depression is in a area of light\r\nsteering currents south of a weakness in the subtropical ridge\r\ncaused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of\r\nMexico. The guidance agrees that the cyclone should move slowly\r\nwest-northwestward to northwestward during the next 36-48 h, with\r\nthe center likely to move inland over southeastern Mexico in 24 h or\r\nless and then remaining inland.  The new forecast track is similar\r\nto, but just south of, the previous forecast and it lies near the\r\ncenter of the guidance envelope.  It should be noted that due to\r\nthe overall slow forward speed the center could continue to move\r\nerratically between now and landfall.\r\n\r\nThe cyclone is expected to remain over warm water in an environment\r\nof moderate shear until landfall, and thus gradual intensification\r\nto tropical-storm strength is expected.  This portion of the\r\nintensity forecast is at the upper edge of the guidance, and an\r\nalternative forecast scenario is that the cyclone never becomes a\r\ntropical storm.  The intensity forecast has been changed after\r\nlandfall to show a faster dissipation over the mountains of Mexico\r\nin agreement with the various dynamical models.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard associated with this system will be heavy\r\nrainfall, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in\r\nmountainous terrain.  The eastern portion of the Tropical Storm\r\nWarning could be discontinued later today if the cyclone continues\r\nmoving away from the area.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/0900Z 15.3N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  12/1800Z 15.7N  95.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  13/0600Z 16.0N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  13/1800Z 16.4N  96.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-06-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number   4\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n1000 AM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017\r\n\r\nThe tropical cyclone has changed little in organization since\r\nyesterday, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB remain\r\nat 30 kt which will be the advisory intensity.   There is still a\r\nsmall window of opportunity for the system to strengthen into a\r\ntropical storm before the center reaches the coast.  However,\r\nmoderate easterly shear should prevent a significant increase in\r\nintensity.  The official intensity forecast continues to be close to\r\nthe model consensus.\r\n\r\nEven with the first visible images, the center is difficult to\r\nlocate and the initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/3 kt.\r\nThe depression is in an environment of weak steering currents, but\r\nthe global models show some increased ridging to the northwest of\r\nthe tropical cyclone over the next day or so.  This should induce a\r\nwest-northwestward motion that would bring the center near/over the\r\ncoast by tonight.  The official track forecast is similar to the\r\nprevious one and close to the dynamical model consensus.\r\n\r\nThe primary hazard associated with this system is heavy rainfall,\r\nwhich will likely lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially\r\nin regions of mountainous terrain.  The eastern portion of the\r\nTropical Storm Warning could be discontinued later today if the\r\ncyclone continues moving away from the area.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/1500Z 15.4N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0000Z 15.7N  95.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1200Z 16.0N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  14/0000Z 16.3N  97.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-06-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number   5\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n400 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone has become a little better\r\norganized today, with a convective band wrapping about halfway\r\naround the southern portion of the circulation.  Accordingly,\r\nDvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB have increased to 2.5,\r\ncorresponding to an intensity of 35 kt.  On this basis, the system\r\nis being named.  Although a little more intensification is possible\r\nbefore the center crosses the coast, no significant increase in\r\nstrength is anticipated.  After landfall, the tropical cyclone will\r\nlikely weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain of southeastern\r\nMexico.\r\n\r\nAlthough the system essentially stalled earlier today, visible\r\nsatellite images and the Puerto Angel radar from the meteorological\r\nservice of Mexico indicate that a slow west-northwestward motion\r\nhas resumed, and the motion is now about 300/02 kt.  Although\r\nsteering currents remain weak, the dynamical models indicate that\r\nthere should be enough mid-level ridging to the north of Calvin to\r\npush the system west-northwestward into southeastern Mexico.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is close to the latest ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nThe main danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the\r\nassociated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in\r\nareas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  12/2100Z 15.5N  95.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  13/0600Z 15.8N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  13/1800Z 16.0N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  14/0600Z 16.2N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Calvin","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-06-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number   6\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2017\r\n\r\nSurface observations and various satellite data, along with radar\r\ninformation from Puerto Angel, Mexico, indicate that the\r\ncenter of Calvin made landfall around 13/0000 UTC about midway\r\nbetween Salina Cruz and Puerto Angel, near Paja Blanca.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 305/04 kt over the past 6 hours after\r\nsmoothing through the various wobbles in the track. The center of\r\nCalvin is now inland over southeastern Mexico based on surface\r\nobservations. Calvin is expected to gradually turn toward the\r\nwest-northwest or west over the next 12-24 hours as the cyclone\r\nmoves along the southern periphery of a weak mid-level ridge and\r\nalso along the front range of the Sierra Madre Del Sur mountains.\r\nThe new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track\r\nand lies close to the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nNow that Calvin has moved inland, steady weakening should ensue\r\nshortly and continue through Tuesday due to interaction with the\r\nmountainous terrain of southeastern Mexico. Tropical depression\r\nstatus has been maintained at the 12- and 24-hour periods due to the\r\npossibility of 25-30 kt winds remaining over water to the south of\r\nthe Calvin's center.\r\n\r\nThe primary danger from Calvin will come from heavy rains, and the\r\nassociated threats of flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in\r\nareas of mountainous terrain.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0300Z 16.0N  95.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND\r\n 12H  13/1200Z 16.1N  96.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND\r\n 24H  14/0000Z 16.3N  96.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND\r\n 36H  14/1200Z 16.5N  97.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Calvin","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-06-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Calvin Discussion Number   7\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n400 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017\r\n\r\nThe cloud pattern associated with Calvin has rapidly deteriorated\r\novernight.  The low-level center, if it still exists, appears to be\r\nlocated inland over the Mexican state of Oaxaca, while the mid-level\r\ncenter has moved westward along the immediate coast of southern\r\nMexico.  It is quite possible that the low-level center has\r\ndissipated, but advisories will continue until visible satellite\r\nimagery provides a better assessment later this morning.\r\n\r\nSurface observations and earlier scatterometer data confirm\r\nthat Calvin has quickly weakened.  Rapid weakening should continue\r\nthis morning and Calvin is expected to dissipate over the\r\nmountainous terrain of southern Mexico later today.\r\n\r\nCalvin and its remnants are expected to produce additional heavy\r\nrainfall over portions of southern Mexico for another day or so.\r\nThese rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding\r\nand mudslides.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/0900Z 16.3N  96.3W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  13/1800Z 16.7N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Calvin","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-06-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP032017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nRemnants Of Calvin Discussion Number   8\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032017\r\n1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017\r\n\r\nEarly morning visible satellite images and surface observations\r\nconfirm that the surface circulation of Calvin has dissipated over\r\nthe rugged terrain of southern Mexico, and therefore this is the\r\nlast NHC advisory on Calvin. Satellite images also show a fairly\r\nlarge convective area located a couple of hundred miles west of\r\nwhere Calvin dissipated. This feature is moving quickly westward and\r\nappears to be associated with the mid-level remnants of the tropical\r\ncyclone.\r\n\r\nEven though Calvin has dissipated, its remnants are expected to\r\nproduce additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico\r\nfor another day or so. These rains are likely to produce\r\nlife-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  13/1500Z 16.5N  96.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-06-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number   1\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the low pressure system south of\r\nMexico has a well-defined circulation with convective banding\r\nfeatures developing near the center.  The convection appears to\r\nhave enough organization to classify the system as a tropical\r\ncyclone, and the initial intensity is set at 25 kt based on Dvorak\r\nestimates of T2.0 from TAFB and T1.5 from SAB.\r\n\r\nThe depression is located to the southwest of a closed mid-/\r\nupper-level low located over the western Gulf of Mexico, and to the\r\nsoutheast of a large mid-tropospheric high centered over Arizona.\r\nThe initial motion is west-northwestward, or 300/9 kt, and this\r\ngeneral motion should continue for the next three days as the\r\ndepression is increasingly steered by the strong high pressure to\r\nits north.  Some decrease in speed is likely by days 4 and 5 once\r\nthe cyclone weakens and is steered by lower-level winds.  The track\r\nmodels are showing relatively little cross-track spread, but there\r\nare some speed differences, with the ECMWF most notably being slower\r\nthan the other guidance.  The NHC official track forecast is\r\nrelatively close to the multi-model consensus TVCN, and there is\r\nhigh confidence that the cyclone will move parallel to the coast of\r\nMexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds well offshore.\r\n\r\nWater vapor imagery shows the depression's outflow expanding in\r\nnearly all directions, and deep-layer shear is forecast to be very\r\nlow for the entire forecast period.  Therefore, strengthening is\r\nexpected for the next 48 hours before the cyclone reaches colder\r\nwater.  The NHC intensity forecast closely follows HCCA during the\r\nfirst 36 hours but then diverges from HCCA and indicates a peak\r\nintensity occurring at 48 hours, which is closer in timing to the\r\npeak intensities shown by SHIPS, the GFS, and the ECMWF models.\r\nCold water should cause the cyclone to degenerate to a remnant low\r\nby day 4 or 5.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0300Z 14.3N 100.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1200Z 15.1N 101.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0000Z 15.9N 103.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1200Z 16.8N 105.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0000Z 17.9N 106.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0000Z 19.5N 110.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0000Z 20.5N 113.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0000Z 21.0N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-06-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   2\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n400 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017\r\n\r\nSatellite images indicate that the tropical cyclone has been\r\nintensifying. The overall coverage of the deep convection has been\r\nincreasing with more banding features noted than late yesterday.\r\nMicrowave and conventional satellite data also suggest that some\r\nprimitive inner-core features have developed. Based on the\r\nincreased central organization and a Dvorak classification of 2.5\r\nfrom TAFB, the initial wind speed is set to 35 kt.\r\n\r\nThere are no obvious environmental impediments to further\r\nstrengthening during the next couple of days with low shear, high\r\nmid-level moisture, and warm SSTs in the forecast. Guidance is in\r\ngood agreement on steady intensification, and Dora could become a\r\nhurricane in a day or two. Thereafter, Dora should move across much\r\ncooler SSTs and into a more dry and stable airmass, causing the\r\ncyclone to weaken and eventually become a remnant low by day 4. The\r\nlatest NHC intensity forecast is adjusted a bit upward in agreement\r\nwith the HWRF, SHIPS and NOAA corrected-consensus models.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is west-northwest or 300 degrees at 10 kt. A\r\nlarge mid-level high centered over northwestern Mexico should\r\ncontinue to steer Dora on this general course during the next couple\r\nof days. The storm will likely take a westward turn by midweek once\r\nthe cyclone weakens and becomes more steered by the lower-level\r\nwinds. Model guidance remains in good agreement on this track,\r\nresulting in high confidence that Dora will move parallel to the\r\ncoast of Mexico, keeping the tropical-storm-force winds offshore.\r\nOnly cosmetic changes were made to the previous forecast, and the\r\nNHC track prediction remains close to the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/0900Z 14.7N 100.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  25/1800Z 15.5N 102.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  26/0600Z 16.4N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  26/1800Z 17.5N 106.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/0600Z 18.4N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  28/0600Z 19.5N 111.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  29/0600Z 20.3N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/0600Z 20.0N 117.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-06-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   3\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n1000 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017\r\n\r\nDora's cloud pattern continues to become better organized, with\r\nmore distinct convective banding features developing.  The current\r\nintensity estimate is set at 45 kt in agreement with a Dvorak\r\nclassification of T3.0 from TAFB.  The dynamical environment should\r\nremain very favorable for additional intensification, with\r\nupper-level anticyclonic flow over the storm and low vertical shear\r\nfor the next several days.  Sea surface temperatures, however,\r\nshould begin to decrease significantly in 48 hours or so, which\r\nwill halt the strengthening trend.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis close to the latest model consensus.  It should be noted that\r\nDora could strengthen more than indicated here in the short term,\r\ngiven that the SHIPS RII shows an above normal probability of rapid\r\nintensification during the next day or so.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/10 kt.  A well-defined\r\nmid-tropospheric ridge is forecast to remain in place to the north\r\nof Dora for the next several days.  This should maintain a\r\nwest-northwestward track for much of the forecast period, and the\r\ntrack model guidance is tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days.\r\nLate in the forecast period, the weakening and increasingly shallow\r\ncyclone is likely to turn westward following the low-level steering\r\nflow.  The official track forecast is essentially an update of the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\nAlthough Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the\r\ntropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of\r\ncoastal southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/1500Z 15.0N 101.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0000Z 15.8N 103.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1200Z 16.8N 105.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0000Z 17.8N 106.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1200Z 18.6N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1200Z 19.6N 111.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1200Z 20.3N 115.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  30/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"1998-06-11 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT THU JUN 11 1998\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THE LAST\r\nSEVERAL DAYS HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. FIRST LIGHT\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH STILL NOT WELL-\r\nDEFINED...IS NOW SUFFICIENTLY INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION TO\r\nWARRANT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS. THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY LIGHT ALTHOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS\r\nINHIBITED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE FORECAST INTENSIFICATION\r\nWILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY COOLER SST LATER IN THE PERIOD.\r\n \r\nSATELLITE-BASED CENTER FIXES OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SHOW\r\nCONSIDERABLE SCATTER. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\n295/12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE AVIATION MODEL\r\nINITIALIZATION OF A SPURIOUS VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE DEPRESSION.\r\nTHIS VORTEX MAY BE PRODUCING A LEFTWARD BIAS IN THE MODEL\r\nFORECASTS...MOST OF WHICH RELY ON THE AVIATION MODEL FIELDS IN\r\nONE WAY OR ANOTHER. MEANWHILE NOGAPS SEEMS TO HAVE A MORE REALISTIC\r\nINITIALIZATION AND SHOWS A MORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS APPEARS\r\nMORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE LARGE MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH\r\nTO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE OPTIONS\r\nAND LEANS TOWARD THE NOGAPS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/1500Z 12.7N 105.0W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0000Z 13.2N 106.7W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1200Z 13.8N 108.8W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0000Z 14.5N 111.4W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1200Z 15.5N 114.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 119.0W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"1998-06-11 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT THU JUN 11 1998\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY AND FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB... AND KGWC ARE NOW IN CLOSER\r\nAGREEMENT.  THE CENTER IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD SOMEWHAT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THESE FIXES.  WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nRAGGED NEAR THE CENTER...A WELL-DEFINED BAND PERSISTS JUST TO THE\r\nWEST.  INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.  \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/12 KNOTS. THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL\r\nRUN CONTINUES TO SHOW A SPURIOUS VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION. THIS CONTAMINATES THE TRACK MODELS WHICH RELY ON THE\r\nAVIATION BACKGROUND FIELDS. MEANWHILE...THE NAVY NOGAPS MODEL IS\r\nCONSIDERED MORE REALISTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY\r\nSOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT IS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n\r\nGUINEY/MAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     11/2100Z 12.4N 106.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/0600Z 12.8N 108.2W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     12/1800Z 13.3N 110.4W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/0600Z 13.8N 112.5W    55 KTS\r\n48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N 115.0W    60 KTS\r\n72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.0N 120.5W    60 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":3,"Date":"1998-06-12 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT THU JUN 11 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS VERY BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED. \r\nLETS FACE IT...THE CENTER CAN BE LOCATED ANYWHERE WITHIN A RADIUS OF\r\n100 N MI. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME ELONGATED AND THE CONVECTION\r\nIS SHAPELESS MEANING THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES\r\nDISORGANIZED.  SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST MODEL HAS ONLY A MODEST\r\nSTRENGTHENING...THE GFDL PRACTICALLY DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY 72\r\nHOURS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND\r\nCALLS FOR 50 KNOT WINDS...BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS.\r\nTHIS IS A LITTLE BIT LESS THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING AIMLESSLY...POSSIBLY DUE TO\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION.  MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS THE\r\nCURRENT MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM\r\nWEAKENS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL\r\nWEST OR WEST NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS AS INDICATED BY MOST\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nAVILA\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0300Z 12.0N 106.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1200Z 12.0N 107.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0000Z 12.0N 109.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1200Z 12.5N 111.0W    50 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0000Z 13.0N 114.5W    50 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 119.5W    50 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":4,"Date":"1998-06-12 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE POORLY DEFINED LOW\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS ELONGATED IN A\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST/SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. ALSO...MOST OF THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  THUS...THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH\r\nBEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES COOLER WATERS.  HOWEVER...FORECAST WIND\r\nFIELDS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT PATTERNS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.  THUS...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A\r\nDEPRESSION UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/09.  THIS DIRECTION AND SPEED ARE MAINTAINED\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION\r\nAT THE END.  THIS IS IN SYNC WITH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH\r\nBUILD AND MAINTAIN A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS\r\nTHE CURRENT MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM\r\nWEAKENS. \r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/0900Z 11.8N 107.3W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     12/1800Z 12.2N 108.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/0600Z 12.6N 110.5W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     13/1800Z 12.9N 112.3W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/0600Z 13.3N 114.3W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/0600Z 14.4N 118.7W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":5,"Date":"1998-06-12 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E\r\nIS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER AND THE FIRST\r\nAVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES SUPPORT THIS LOCATION ESTIMATE. A BAND OF\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NORTH AND\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. \r\n\r\nOUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE REMAINS GOOD WHILE SATELLITE-\r\nDERIVED MID- TO UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC WINDS SHOW 20-30 KT\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THIS\r\nMAY BE PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INABILITY OF THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.\r\n\r\nTHE 00Z MRF MID- TO UPPER- LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOW 20-30 KNOTS\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH AS THE\r\nANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MIGRATES WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM REACHING TROPICAL STORM STATUS...35\r\nKNOTS...BY 24 HOURS AND HELD CONSTANT THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM\r\nENCROACHES ON COOLER WATERS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITAL MOTION IS 280/09 KNOTS. SATELLITE-BASED POSITION FIXES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nCONTINUES THE MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE\r\n12Z FORECAST TRACK MODELS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMM/BAMD\r\nALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY SLOWER. \r\n \r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/1500Z 11.8N 108.2W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0000Z 12.0N 109.6W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1200Z 12.3N 111.4W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0000Z 12.7N 113.5W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N 115.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1200Z 14.0N 119.5W    35 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":6,"Date":"1998-06-12 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998\r\n \r\nTHE SYSTEM REMAINS BROAD WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES ATTEMPTING\r\nTO WRAP INTO THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE \r\nBANDS IS RATHER WEAK AND DISORGANIZED. THUS...THE INTENSITY IS\r\nHELD AT 30 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY..IN AGREEMENT WITH TAFB AND\r\nSAB. WHILE THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REACH\r\nTROPICAL STORM STATUS THE LIMITATION WILL BE THE COOLER WATERS\r\nNEAR 114W/115W DENOTED IN CURRENT IMAGERY AS THE LEADING EDGE OF\r\nA STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK.   \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10 KNOTS. SATELLITE-BASED LOCATION FIXES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE 18Z FORECAST TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS CONSIDERABLE SCATTER. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET\r\nSOLUTION ARE TAKING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD WHILE THE\r\nAVIATION AND GFDI SHOW A SOUTHWEST MOTION. ONCE AGAIN A SPURIOUS\r\nVORTEX IN THE AVIATION INITIALIZATION EAST OF THE SYSTEM...11N97W..\r\nIS THE LIKELY CULPRIT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS IN BETWEEN \r\nAND CALLS FOR A WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME DECREASE\r\nIN FORWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE STEERING CURRENTS BECOME\r\nWEAKER.\r\n\r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     12/2100Z 12.1N 109.5W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/0600Z 12.3N 111.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     13/1800Z 12.6N 113.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/0600Z 12.9N 114.8W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     14/1800Z 13.0N 116.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     15/1800Z 13.5N 119.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":7,"Date":"1998-06-13 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT FRI JUN 12 1998\r\n\r\nLATEST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME SO MUCH BETTER DEFINED THAT I WAS\r\nTEMPTED TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT THIS TIME. \r\nHOWEVER...IR IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE CONVECTION IS WEAK AND CONFINED\r\nTO A CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  IF CONVECTION\r\nREDEVELOPS AND WRAPS AROUND THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY BE NAMED IN THE NEXT ADVISORY.  WE\r\nARE FORECASTING AN INCREASE OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...SKILLS\r\nIN FORECASTING INTENSITY CHANGE ARE LIMITED.\r\n\r\nTRACK MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT.  THE NOGAPS AND THE UK MODELS ARE\r\nTAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD.  STATE OF THE ART AND RELIABLE\r\nGFDL...AND THE AVN MODELS ARE MOVING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD. BAM AND\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS MOVE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD.  IF WARNINGS HAD TO BE\r\nISSUED UNDER THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK MODELS...IT WOULD\r\nREQUIRE TO ISSUE THEM FOR A RATHER LARGE AREA.  \r\n\r\nSINCE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BUILDING A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE\r\nGULF OF MEXICO ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND WESTWARD...A CONTINUED\r\nMOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST IS REASONABLE AS SUGGESTED\r\nBY CLIMATOLOGY AND BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0300Z 13.1N 110.6W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1200Z 13.5N 112.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.0N 114.5W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.5N 116.5W    40 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0000Z 15.0N 118.5W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 122.5W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":8,"Date":"1998-06-13 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 1998\r\n \r\nLATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS\r\nNEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND BANDING FEATURES ARE INCREASING.   \r\nT-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 2.5 AT SAB AND GLOBAL TO 3.0 AT TAFB.  ALSO THE\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IN THE\r\nPAST 24-HOURS. THEREFORE THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL\r\nSTORM AGATHA...THE FIRST EASTERN PACIFIC STORM OF THE 1998 SEASON.\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT MOVES\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\n \r\nTRACK MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT.  HOWEVER...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nFORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS CORRECT.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK CONTINUES TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST.\r\n \r\nJARVINEN\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/0900Z 14.0N 112.3W    40 KTS\r\n12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.9N 113.9W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/0600Z 16.0N 116.0W    35 KTS\r\n36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 118.1W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 120.2W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/0600Z 19.9N 124.1W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":9,"Date":"1998-06-13 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SAT JUN 13 1998\r\nCORRECTION...CHANGE STORM ONE TO AGATHA\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/13 AND THIS IS A CONSERVATIVE\r\nSPEED...THE SHORT TERM MOTION COULD BE 15 KNOTS OR EVEN HIGHER.  THE\r\nTRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY DIVERGENT WITH THE NOGAPS AND\r\nLBAR SHOWING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THE GFDL AND UKMET TURNING\r\nTOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE MOSTLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH CONSIDERABLE DECELERATION AFTER 24\r\nHOURS.  THE DECELERATION IS A STRATEGY OF CHOICE DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY OF DIRECTION OF MOTION.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T NUMBERS 3.0 TO 3.5 AND THE\r\nWIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KNOTS WITH SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING\r\nFOR 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH COOLER SSTS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING.\r\nTHIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHERE IS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE\r\n34 KNOT WIND RADII ARE INCREASED TO 200 N MI IN THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE ON THIS BASIS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/1500Z 14.8N 113.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N 115.2W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 117.5W    55 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 119.0W    45 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.5N 120.5W    35 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":10,"Date":"1998-06-13 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/18 KNOTS...REPRESENTING A 5 KNOT\r\nINCREASE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY. LBAR WAS THE ONLY MODEL TO PICK UP\r\nON THIS ACCELERATION. SATELLITE-BASED FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE 18Z AVIATION-BASED BAM TRACK MODELS CONTINUE\r\nTO INSIST ON A SOUTHWEST MOTION BY 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION...AND IS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS. THE PRIMARY DISCREPANCY IS WITH THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL DECELERATION AS\r\nTHE MEAN STEERING DIMINISHES...IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH LBAR. THE\r\nGFDL DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY 48 HOURS. \r\n \r\nSATELLITE-BASED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n3.5+ AND 3.0 RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n55 KNOTS. THE TAFB ANALYST NOTED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE\r\nWARM SPOT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE SYSTEM AT 55 KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS \r\nTHEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS IT AS IT MOVES INTO COOLER WATERS.      \r\n \r\nTHE 34 KNOT WIND RADII HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO 120 NM IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT BASED ON A 18Z SHIP DATA.  ALL OTHER RADII REMAIN\r\nUNCHANGED.\r\n\r\nGUINEY/LAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     13/2100Z 15.7N 115.7W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.7N 118.0W    55 KTS\r\n24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.8N 120.6W    45 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N 122.6W    35 KTS\r\n48HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N 124.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 126.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":11,"Date":"1998-06-14 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 1998\r\n\r\nAGATHA HAS A WELL DEFINED CURVED CLOUD BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE\r\nCENTER...BUT DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED.  T-NUMBERS FROM ALL\r\nAGENCIES ARE BETWEEN 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KNOTS.  AGATHA IS ABOUT TO CROSS\r\nTHE 26 DEGREE ISOTHERM AND IS HEADING FOR COOLER WATERS. SO...\r\nWEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. \r\n\r\nMODELS ARE BUILDING SUCH A STRONG RIDGE NORTH OF AGATHA THAT THE\r\nSTORM IS BEING FORECAST...BY SOME MODELS... TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND\r\nEVEN SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UK MODEL HAS NOW JOINED THE GFDL AND THE AVN\r\nIN THIS VENTURE. BAM MODELS ARE DECREASING THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE\r\nSTORM AND THEN TURN IT EASTWARD WHILE NOGAPS AND STATISTICAL MODELS\r\nARE MOVING AGATHA WESTWARD.  THIS WOULD MAKE SENSE IF THE STORM\r\nWEAKENS FAST AND THE TRACKING ALGORITHM GATHERS SOME OTHER SPURIOUS\r\nVORTICES NOT RELATED TO AGATHA. I HARD TO ACCEPT THAT...IN THIS\r\nCASE...GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL WOULD BE SO WRONG.   \r\n\r\nAT THIS TIME...WITH SUCH A DISCREPANCY...I WOULD GO WITH GOOD OLD\r\nCLIMATOLOGY AND PERSISTENCE...AND MOVE AGATHA ON A GENERAL WEST\r\nNORTHWEST TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WHICH IS NOW ABOUT\r\n17 KNOTS. OBVIOUSLY..IF THE STORM MOVES SOUTHWARD...AS SUGGESTED BY\r\nSOME MODELS...THE SST ARGUMENT IS NOT VALID AND THE STORM WILL\r\nPROBABLY SURVIVE LONGER. \r\n\r\nAVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0300Z 16.8N 117.1W    55 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.8N 119.3W    50 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 121.0W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1200Z 19.5N 122.5W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0000Z 20.0N 124.0W    30 KTS\r\n72HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N 127.4W    25 KTS\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":12,"Date":"1998-06-14 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 1998\r\n\r\nCLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED IN THE OUTER BANDS...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nNOW LIMITED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA NEAR THE CENTER.  INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS DECREASED A LITTLE TO 50 KNOTS...WHICH IS A COMPROMISE\r\nBETWEEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS ANALYSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nIS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/16.  LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING SHOULD\r\nALLOW THE GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE BUT WITH A\r\nSIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nWEAKENS.  THE CURRENT TRACK IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CLIPER BUT\r\nFASTER THAN THE NAVY NOGAPS.  GFDL SHOWS DISSIPATION WITHIN 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/0900Z 17.6N 118.6W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.7N 120.9W    45 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/0600Z 19.7N 123.2W    40 KTS\r\n36HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N 125.0W    30 KTS\r\n48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.0N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N 128.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":13,"Date":"1998-06-14 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT SUN JUN 14 1998\r\n \r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/14...AGATHA CONTINUES TO SLOW\r\nDOWN.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FOR CONTINUED DECELERATION AS STEERING\r\nCURRENTS WEAKEN WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN DIRECTION OF MOTION.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT AS COLDER WATER IS ENCOUNTERED.\r\nHOWEVER CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT T NUMBER 3.0 TO\r\n3.5...SO 50 KNOTS IS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/1500Z 18.3N 119.5W    50 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0000Z 19.2N 121.2W    40 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1200Z 20.3N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/0000Z 21.0N 124.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.5N 125.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 126.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":14,"Date":"1998-06-14 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 1998\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 AND THE MOTION CONTINUES TO\r\nDECELERATE.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...BUT IT DOES\r\nNOT MATTER SINCE THE STORM IS WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER AND IS\r\nALREADY MOSTLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS...BUT ONLY BECAUSE THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE REQURIES A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF TIME FOR THE CIRCULATION TO\r\nSPIN DOWN.  AGATHA HAS BEEN REDUCED TO A SWIRL OF MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS\r\nAND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     14/2100Z 18.6N 120.0W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/0600Z 19.4N 121.3W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.1N 122.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.7N 123.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     16/1800Z 21.3N 124.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 125.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":15,"Date":"1998-06-15 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 1998\r\n\r\nIN SPITE OF BEING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ESTIMATED AROUND 23\r\nDEGREES CELSIUS...THE STORM HAS MAINTAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAROUND ITS CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS FOLLOWING\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON.  SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER AGATHA AND COOLER WATERS\r\nSHOULD EVENTUALLY TAKE THEIR TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nWEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION IS FORECAST WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THE\r\nSYSTEM SHOULD BE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAGATHA IS NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE\r\nAND IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 9 KNOTS.  SOME FURTHER\r\nSLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED.  IF THIS WERE A STRONGER\r\nSYSTEM...AGATHA WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE RIDGE AND\r\nBE STEERED NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO A MID- TO UPPER-\r\nLEVEL TROUGH OR CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD FROM\r\nNORTHERN BAJA.  AGATHA IS A RATHER WEAK STORM HOWEVER...AND ITS\r\nMOTION IS MORE LIKELY TO BE CONTROLLED BY SHALLOWER-LAYER\r\nSTEERING...I.E. THE TRADEWINDS.  OUR TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO BE\r\nHIGHLY DIVERGENT...AND AT THIS TIME THE MOST PRUDENT FORECAST SEEMS\r\nTO BE A MAINTENANCE OF A SLOW NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION. \r\nTHIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nPASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0300Z 19.2N 120.9W    45 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.7N 123.2W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.2N 124.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.5N 124.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 125.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":16,"Date":"1998-06-15 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT MON JUN 15 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW- TO MID-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATION BUT REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY LIMITED. \r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST\r\nESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS\r\nAGATHA MOVES OVER COOL WATER...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATED LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/08.  CONSIDERABLE SCATTER PERSISTS IN\r\nTHE VARIOUS TRACK PREDICTION MODELS...BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT\r\nTHE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nWHILE THE FORWARD SPEED DECREASES IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING STERRING\r\nCURRENTS.  CURRENT TRACK IS IN CLOSEST AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nMAYFIELD\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/0900Z 19.4N 121.7W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.0N 122.8W    35 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.4N 123.6W    30 KTS\r\n36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.7N 124.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 125.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Agatha","Adv":17,"Date":"1998-06-15 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT MON JUN 15 1998\r\n\r\nTHE STORM IS MAINLY A SWIRL OF LOWER CLOUDS AND DISSIPATION IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07.  THE GFDL...UKMET AND LBAR\r\nDISSIPATE THE STORM BEFORE 72 HOURS.  THE MODELS REMAIN HIGHLY\r\nDIVERGENT AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW A MOSTLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/1500Z 19.6N 122.1W    35 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.9N 123.0W    30 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.4N 124.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.7N 124.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/1200Z 20.9N 125.3W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":18,"Date":"1998-06-15 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT MON JUN 15 1998\r\n \r\nAGATHA IS A SWIRL OF LOWER CLOUDS AND IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION\r\nAS OF 1800Z.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06.  THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED IN\r\nAN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS WITH A VERY WEAK RIDGE TO ITS\r\nNORTH.  IT IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     15/2100Z 20.0N 122.4W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/0600Z 20.3N 123.1W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.8N 124.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 124.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     17/1800Z 21.2N 125.2W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     18/1800Z 21.4N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":19,"Date":"1998-06-16 03:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 PM PDT MON JUN 15 1998\r\n \r\nAGATHA REMAINS A WELL-DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVOID OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY TREND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nPACKAGE WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BE DISSIPATING IN 24 HOURS OR\r\nSO.  \r\n \r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF AGATHA.\r\nTHIS YIELDS A CURRENT MOTION OF 280/06. THE MORE WESTERLY HEADING\r\nOVER THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS IS LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nSTEERING...AND THIS INFLUENCE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST\r\nMOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.  \r\n\r\nGUINEY/PASCH\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0300Z 19.9N 123.1W    30 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N 124.0W    25 KTS\r\n24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.4N 125.6W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.7N 127.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 128.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":20,"Date":"1998-06-16 09:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 1998\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MAINLY IN\r\nTHE LOW CLOUDS...VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 25 KNOTS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ESTIMATE FROM TAFB.\r\nADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CEASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE CARRIED AS A\r\nWEAK LOW IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nLOW-LEVEL STEERING IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW A SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST\r\nDRIFT TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION WITHIN A DAY OR SO.\r\n \r\nMAYFIELD\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/0900Z 20.0N 123.4W    25 KTS\r\n12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.2N 124.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.3N 125.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 126.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":21,"Date":"1998-06-16 15:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n8 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS STEERING\r\nCURRENTS ARE WEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS.  ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY\r\nBE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.\r\n\r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/1500Z 19.8N 123.0W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.8N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n36HR VT     18/0000Z 19.8N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n48HR VT     18/1200Z 19.8N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED \r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Agatha","Adv":22,"Date":"1998-06-16 21:00:00","Contents":"ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL\r\n2 PM PDT TUE JUN 16 1998\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nWEAK AND LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND SPEED IS ESTIMATED AT 20 KNOTS AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED\r\nTO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nUNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nLAWRENCE\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL     16/2100Z 19.9N 123.0W    20 KTS\r\n12HR VT     17/0600Z 19.9N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING\r\n24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.9N 123.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATED\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-09-12 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT EMERGED\r\nFROM AFRICA YESTERDAY HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nTHIS MORNING.  A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS\r\nFORMED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM AND DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE AT T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.  TWO REPORTS OF\r\nNORTHERLY 19 KT AND SOUTHERLY 10 KT WINDS...FROM SHIPS WITH CALL\r\nSIGNS PBCJ AND UCAB RESPECTIVELY...CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF A CLOSED\r\nSURFACE CIRCULATION.  BASED ON THE ABOVE DATA...ADVISORIES ARE\r\nBEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT.  PRESENTLY THE SYSTEM\r\nAPPEARS TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR AND IT\r\nSHOULD BE TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 28C. \r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\n40W-45W NORTH OF 15N AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS\r\nFEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IF THIS SCENARIO\r\nVERIFIES...THE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nOVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT PRESUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE\r\nABLE TO EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE.  THIS OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN THE CURRENTLY AVAILABLE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/16.  OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY EASTERLY FLOW TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nLATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD....THERE ARE DIFFERENCES OF OPINION\r\nAMONGST THE DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE\r\nAND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD TO THE EAST OF\r\n50W...WHEREAS THE GFS FORECASTS LESS OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nNEAR 50W AND TAKES THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE TRACK DEPICTED IN THE 0600 UTC GFDL RUN.  \r\n\r\nTHIS MORNING...DROPSONDES ARE BEING LAUNCHED FROM A DC-8 AIRCRAFT IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF THE SYSTEM AS PART OF THE AFRICAN MONSOON\r\nMULTIDISCIPLINARY ANALYSIS PROJECT...AMMA.  THESE SOUNDING DATA ARE\r\nBEING INCORPORATED INTO THE GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATIONS SYSTEM\r\nAND...HOPEFULLY...INTO THE GLOBAL MODELS TO IMPROVE THE\r\nINITIALIZATION OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 12.5N  23.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 12.7N  25.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 13.0N  28.4W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 13.5N  31.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 14.0N  34.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 15.5N  41.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N  47.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N  51.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-09-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE\r\nORGANIZED WITH FAIRLY PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN\r\nAND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  HOWEVER THE CENTER IS\r\nSTILL RATHER BROAD AND ELONGATED...AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE CENTER IS MOVING WESTWARD AND BECOMING MORE\r\nSEPARATED FROM THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE.  A SHIP REPORT FROM A\r\nVESSEL WITH CALL SIGN OVZV2 OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 36 KT AND A\r\nPRESSURE OF 1008.7 MB SOME 180 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WIND OBSERVATION WAS IN\r\nCONVECTION...PROBABLY A LOCALIZED SQUALL...AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE\r\nOF THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION.  MOREOVER...A QUALITY CONTROL\r\nCHECK OF THIS SHIP BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT\r\nITS WIND MEASUREMENTS WERE A FEW KNOTS TOO HIGH AND ITS PRESSURE\r\nHAS BEEN RUNNING 1-2 MB LOW.  HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THE SYSTEM IS\r\nNEARING TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WILL PROBABLY BE NAMED TONIGHT OR\r\nON WEDNESDAY.  MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY PREVAILS OVER THE\r\nAREA...AND SINCE THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...\r\nSTRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM.  GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER\r\nIN THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR\r\n40-45W NORTH OF 15N...BUT IN GENERAL THEY SUGGEST THAT IT WILL\r\nBECOME LESS INFLUENTIAL IN SEVERAL DAYS.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING\r\nTHE GFS FORECAST FIELDS AS INPUT...SHOWS WEAK SHEAR THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  I AM NOT TOTALLY CONFIDENT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SO FAVORABLE...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN THE SHIPS OUTPUT AND JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY BELOW THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nA SLIGHT SOUTHWARD RELOCATION OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN DONE FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE...CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND THE FORWARD SPEED\r\nHAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER.  CURRENT MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 270/13.   DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES AN INCREASE\r\nIN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SUGGESTING A\r\nSTRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. \r\nBY DAY 3 HOWEVER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nRESPOND TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF 50W...AND\r\nBEGIN TO TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT.  THE LATEST GFS...U.K. MET\r\nOFFICE...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nON THE TRACK AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS BUT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH IN THE LATTER PART OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 12.0N  23.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 12.0N  26.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 12.3N  29.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 12.6N  33.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 13.3N  36.7W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 15.5N  42.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N  46.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 20.0N  50.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-09-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2006\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED TONIGHT AND CONSISTS OF A\r\nBROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS. AN\r\nAVERAGE POSITION OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION GYRE IS USED FOR THE\r\nHIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL POSITION. THIS POSITION IS NUDGED\r\nSOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER WAS SOUTH\r\nOF 12N. CONVECTION NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE DEPRESSION IS SCANT...\r\nTHOUGH THERE IS A SOMEWHAT CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER AND HEAVY CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS RACING WESTWARD AWAY\r\nFROM THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING HELD AT 30 KT\r\nAND IS SUPPORTED BY BELIEVABLE 25-30 KT WIND VECTORS FROM QUIKSCAT. \r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM WATER AND EXPERIENCING\r\nRELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... IT WILL PROBABLY TAKE SOME\r\nTIME FOR THE LARGE SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS MUCH LOWER THAN\r\nSHIPS... WHICH SEEMS TO BE MUCH TOO FAST IN MAKING THE DEPRESSION\r\nALMOST A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE GFDL HAS A SEEMINGLY MORE\r\nREALISTIC DEPICTION OF THE FUTURE INTENSITY CHANGE... SLOW AT FIRST\r\nTHEN MORE RAPID IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND IS USED AS THE\r\nPRIMARY GUIDANCE FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 270/14. A STRENGTHENING\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON\r\nTHIS GENERAL TRACK WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.   BEYOND 48 HOURS... THE RIDGE WEAKENS OVER THE\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC... ALLOWING THE DEPRESSION TO START MOVING MORE TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST. MODELS ARE GENERALLY SHOWING MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAN EARLIER TODAY AND... CONSEQUENTLY... THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTHWARD AT DAYS 3-5.  THE FORECAST\r\nIS STILL ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE GFDL.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 11.8N  25.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 12.1N  27.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 12.4N  31.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 12.9N  34.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N  38.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 16.3N  43.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  50.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-09-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY\r\nORGANIZED...WITH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING DISPLACED WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nLATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A STRONG LOWER TO\r\nMID-LEVEL JET IMPINGING UPON THE DEPRESSION. UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS\r\nDURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM DAKAR AND SAL CAPE VERDE...ALONG WITH\r\nSPECIAL SOUNDINGS FROM THE AMMA PROJECT...SHOW THAT A STRONG 700 MB\r\nJET ACCOMPANIED THE SYSTEM AFTER IT EMERGED FROM AFRICA.\r\nADDITIONALLY...THE METEOSAT-8 SPLIT WINDOW CHANNEL DIFFERENCING\r\nPRODUCT PRODUCED BY UW-CIMSS SHOWS A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER NORTH\r\nOF THE SYSTEM. THERMAL WIND BALANCE WOULD ARGUE FOR A MID-LEVEL JET\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THAT VERY WARM AND STABLE AIRMASS. UNTIL\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CAN ESCAPE THIS SEEMINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS LESS LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY...SUCH\r\nA BROAD CIRCULATION PRECLUDES SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM. THE 850-200 MB WIND SHEAR CALCULATION USED IN THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL CANNOT RESOLVE THE APPARENT MID-LEVEL SHEAR IN THIS CASE.\r\nACCORDINGLY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE...WHICH FORECASTS A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS...AND IS\r\nCLOSER TO THE MORE CONSERVATIVE GFDL. HOWEVER...TOWARD THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE AN IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT STILL ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD. \r\n \r\nTHE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY\r\nIDENTIFY A CENTER. TRACKING THE MEAN CENTER OF THE LARGE GYRE YIELDS\r\nAN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 275/14.  GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE WILL ENCOUNTER A BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nRESULTING IN A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN AND DECELERATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND\r\nLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 11.9N  26.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 12.2N  29.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 12.8N  32.3W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 13.7N  35.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 14.7N  37.9W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N  42.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 21.5N  47.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-09-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nMORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT\r\nREMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE CIRCULATION ELONGATED\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AND SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA\r\nROTATING AROUND THE MEAN CENTER.  SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS ARE\r\nPRESENT IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/15.  THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE\r\nSYSTEM MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS\r\nTHE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH IS A LEFT OUTLIER BRINGING THE CYCLONE\r\nTO JUST NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BY 120 HR.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IN CALLING FOR\r\nA NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BY 120 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO A PAST TENDENCY OF\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO MOVE TROPICAL CYCLONES TOO FAR NORTH IN\r\nTHIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT BROAD AND DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nSHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW.  THUS...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST TAKES 24 HR TO BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STRENGTHEN AT A FASTER\r\nRATE IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN 72-96 HR.  THERE ARE TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS\r\nIN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE FIRST IS DRY AIR PRESENT NORTH AND\r\nWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  HOW MUCH OF THIS AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME.  THE SECOND IS AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTROUGH FORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST\r\nOF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY 120 HR.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE THE\r\nTROUGH WILL EXIST...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION OR ON THE\r\nPOSSIBLE IMPACT TO THE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 12.0N  28.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 12.2N  30.7W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 12.8N  34.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N  37.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  39.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N  43.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 20.0N  46.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 22.0N  49.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nEIGHT IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS\r\nFORMED IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT...ALTHOUGH THE BAND IS MORE\r\nTHAN 100 N MI FROM THE CENTER IN MOST AREAS.  THE OVERALL\r\nCIRCULATION IS MORE CIRCULAR AND BETTER DEFINED THAN 6 HR AGO. \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB...AND 30 KT FROM\r\nSAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE INITIAL POSITION IS SOUTH OF THE SATELLITE FIXES...\r\nAND THE CENTER MAY BE TRYING TO RE-FORM FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE\r\nCONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 275/16...WITH A POSSIBLE\r\nFASTER MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nSOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...WHICH\r\nSHOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD FOR 24 HR OR SO. \r\nAFTER THAT...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO\r\nGRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE UKMET\r\nAND THE NOGAPS FORECAST MORE RIDGING NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION THAN\r\nTHEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THEY TURN THE CYCLONE TO SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nLEFT AFTER 96 HR.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. \r\nTHE CANADIAN REMAINS A LEFT OUTLIER....ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHIFTED TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF ARE\r\nSIMILAR TO THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE GFDL FASTER THAN THE\r\nOTHER MODELS AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 72 HR.  IT LIES NEAR THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE\r\nMAIN CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD STRUCTURE SUGGESTS THAT SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION SHOULD\r\nBE SLOW.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FIRST 24 HR OF THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN STRENGTHEN AT A FASTER RATE IN A\r\nLIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.  THERE REMAIN TWO COMPLICATING FACTORS IN\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE FIRST IS DRY AIR PRESENT NORTH AND\r\nWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  HOW MUCH OF THIS AIR WILL BE ENTRAINED INTO\r\nTHE SYSTEM IS UNCLEAR.  THE SECOND IS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nFORECAST BY THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF THE\r\nLESSER ANTILLES BY 96-120 HR.  WHILE THE MODELS AGREE THE TROUGH\r\nWILL EXIST...THEY DO NOT AGREE ON THE LOCATION OR ON THE POSSIBLE\r\nIMPACT TO THE CYCLONE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 12.7N  30.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 12.9N  33.3W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 13.6N  36.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 14.7N  39.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 16.1N  41.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N  44.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  46.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  49.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM AST WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES CONTINUED GRADUAL\r\nDEVELOPMENT WITH A DISTINCT CURVED BAND ON THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSEMI-CIRCLE.  BASED UPON UNANIMOUS DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.5 AND\r\nEARLIER AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 35\r\nKT AND IS GIVEN THE NAME HELENE.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF\r\n285/19...THOUGH THIS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SPREAD IN\r\nPOSITIONS.  HELENE SHOULD CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\nDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  BETWEEN 36 AND 72\r\nHOURS...A MID TO UPPER TROUGH INDUCES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND\r\nTHIS MAY ACT TO STEER THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  AFTER THIS\r\nTROUGH BY-PASSES HELENE...A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK SHOULD RESUME\r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5.  ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS STAIR-STEP\r\nSCENARIO...WITH NOGAPS BEING A MODEST OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF\r\nTHE PACK.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nWHILE THERE IS A LARGE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF\r\nHELENE...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM CIRA SUGGEST THAT\r\nTHIS VERY DRY AIR IS NOT REACHING HELENE'S INNER CORE.  THE\r\nSYSTEM'S PROJECTED TRACK SHOULD TAKE IT OVER WARM WATER...THROUGH\r\nABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INTO LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR THE NEXT THREE\r\nDAYS.  SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE THUS BRING HELENE UP TO\r\nABOUT 100 KT IN THREE DAYS.  THE GFDL...ON THE OTHER HAND...IS\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER...LIKELY BECAUSE IT DEPICTS MORE SHEAR BEING\r\nIMPARTED ON HELENE DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER TROUGH. \r\nAT DAYS 4 AND 5...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR WILL PICK UP AND\r\nLIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO...BUT JUST BELOW...BOTH SHIPS AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 13.3N  32.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 13.7N  35.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  37.4W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 15.9N  39.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 17.4N  41.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.0N  43.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 21.5N  45.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.5N  49.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE REMAINS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND SEEN LAST NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT HAS\r\nSPREAD OUT AND FRAGMENTED...THERE IS LITTLE OR NO DEEP\r\nCONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 60 N MI OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...AND IN\r\nGENERAL THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nUNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD AT 280/19 AS IT CURRENTLY LIES\r\nSOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BECOME RELATIVELY LARGE WITH THE MODELS FALLING INTO\r\nTWO MAIN CAMPS. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL FORECAST\r\nTHE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY AND ALLOW THE STORM\r\nTO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nMAINTAIN THE RIDGE LONGER AND FORECAST HELENE TO MAINTAIN A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR ABOUT 48 MORE HOURS. ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS FORECAST A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...AT ABOUT HALF THE CURRENT\r\nFORWARD SPEED...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING DAYS 3-5. BY THAT\r\nTIME...HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS MORE THAN 300 MILES\r\nWIDE...SO THE TRACK FORECAST AT THOSE LONG RANGES IS QUITE\r\nUNCERTAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MOVED TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nHELENE CONTINUES IN ITS STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY...PROBABLY BECAUSE OF\r\nITS LARGE SIZE AND THE FAST FORWARD MOTION.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE\r\nCONVECTION WILL SOON CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND\r\nALLOW FOR MORE STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nTHE IMPACTS OF THE NEARBY SAHARAN AIR LAYER ARE UNCERTAIN BUT COULD\r\nEND UP BEING AN ADDITIONAL INHIBITING FACTOR.  LATER IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...SINCE THE SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL\r\nREMAIN 27-28 CELSIUS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT...ALL OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ANTICIPATES HELENE TO\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE. THE SHIPS MODEL HAS BACKED OFF A BIT AND NOW\r\nMAKES HELENE NO STRONGER THAN ABOUT 85 KT THROUGH FIVE DAYS...WHICH\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL SOLUTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD TO BE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUIDANCE AT\r\nTHE LONGER RANGES...BUT IT IS BELOW SHIPS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS\r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 13.7N  34.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.1N  37.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.2N  39.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N  41.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 17.8N  43.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N  45.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N  48.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 24.0N  51.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM 0802 UTC WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING\r\nTHE CENTER WHICH WAS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HELENE IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER\r\nORGANIZED WITH INCREASING CURVATURE NOTED IN THE BANDING FEATURES.\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nTHE STORM CONTINUES TO RACE WESTWARD AT 275/20 AS IT CURRENTLY\r\nREMAINS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SPREAD IN THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS LARGE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS. \r\nAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE MODELS OFFER TWO\r\nSOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL ARE TO THE\r\nRIGHT AND FORECAST THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO WEAKEN QUITE RAPIDLY\r\nALLOWING THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THE\r\nUKMET KEEPS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK LONGER. IN GENERAL ALL OF THE MODELS DECREASE THE FORWARD \r\nSPEED BY HALF OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING DAYS 3-5. BY THAT\r\nTIME THE TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE IS MORE THAN 450 MILES WIDE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS MOVED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND NOW \r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSIFICATION OF HELENE IS LIKELY TO BE SLOW INITIALLY BECAUSE \r\nOF THE CURRENTLY BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION SHOULD\r\nEVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND ALLOW FOR\r\nMORE STEADY STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SSTS ALONG\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 27-28 CELSIUS AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THUS \r\nHELENE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS INDICATE A PEAK INTENSITY OF 90-95 KT WHILE THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES HELENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN ALL THE GUIDANCE FOR THE FIRST\r\nDAY OR TWO GIVEN THE CURRENT SLOW RATE OF INTENSIFICATION \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE\r\nAND BRINGS HELENE TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 13.4N  36.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 13.8N  39.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 14.8N  42.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 16.2N  44.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N  46.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  49.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  51.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 24.5N  53.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER COBB/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nMUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THERE ARE NO DISTINCT CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDING FEATURES.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nTHAT HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT.  A RATHER DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION BECAME APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING\r\nWHICH WAS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND THIS\r\nREQUIRED A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT BOTH TO THE WORKING TRACK AND TO THE\r\nSHORT TERM FORECAST.\r\n\r\nHELENE HAS SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...BUT USING A LONGER\r\nTERM 12 HOUR AVERAGE YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/14.\r\nHELENE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE RIDGE\r\nIN A COUPLE DAYS BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...WHICH SHOULD IMPART A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS A FAIRLY LARGE\r\nSPREAD IN THE MODELS AS TO WHEN THIS MAY OCCUR.  THE GFS...ITS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL ARE TO THE RIGHT AND FORECAST THE\r\nRIDGE TO WEAKEN MUCH SOONER.  THE UKMET KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT\r\nLONGER AND THEREFORE IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND GUNA \r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nEVEN THOUGH THE OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED AND HELENE IS IN A VERY\r\nLOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE LARGE CIRCULATION STILL LACKS INNER\r\nCORE CONVECTION.  UNTIL THE INNER CORE DEVELOPS...STRENGTHENING IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE SLOW.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS AN INCREASE\r\nIN WIND SPEED MUCH LIKE THE SHIPS MODEL.  LATE IN THE PERIOD GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST SOME INCREASING SHEAR WHICH COULD SLOW THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT AS\r\nAGGRESSIVE AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.\r\n \r\nTHE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON A RECENT REPORT OF \r\n34 KT WINDS FROM A MOORED BUOY ABOUT 90 NM NORTHWEST OF HELENE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 14.2N  37.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.8N  39.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N  42.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 17.3N  44.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 18.5N  46.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  49.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 22.5N  51.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 25.5N  54.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/13...BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE\r\nSATELLITE FIX POSITIONS. THE 18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS LESS SPREAD\r\nNOW THAN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS MODELS\r\nHAVING SHIFTED MORE WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO THE UKMET 12Z SOLUTION.\r\nTHE NEW 18Z UKMET RUN IS ALSO MUCH SLOWER NOW AND VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE 18Z NOGAPS MODEL RUN. THE KEY PLAYER DURING THE FORECAST CYCLE\r\nIS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nU.S. THAT IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND\r\nCUTOFF INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE UKMET AND NOGAPS\r\nMODELS ARE NOW WEAKENING THE LOW AND LIFTING IT OUT SOONER THAN THE\r\nGFS...ECMWF... GFDL...AND CANADIAN MODELS. GIVEN THAT THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. AND THE NORTH ATLANTIC\r\nIS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BE FAST ZONAL FLOW...LESS\r\nAMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...WHICH SHOULD\r\nDECREASE THE EFFECT OF ANY NORTHWARD STEERING FLOW ON THE WAST SIDE\r\nOF THE TROUGH. THE RESULT IS THAT THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nCONSIDERABLY BY 96 AND 120 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS SLOWLY\r\nWESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE GUNA AND\r\nCONU MODEL CONSENSUS FORECAST TRACKS.\r\n\r\nHELENE HAS BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME MAINTAINING CENTRAL DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR MORE THAN A JUST FEW HOURS AT A TIME DUE TO A LARGE\r\nSLUG OF DRY AIR PUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE. SINCE THIS PATTERN SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY TO CHANGE ANY\r\nTIME SOON...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY DURING\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HOURS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. AFTER THAT... A\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS PER THE GFDL\r\nAND FSU MODELS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE HELENE WILL BE MOVING\r\nOVER 28C AND WARMER SSTS AND ALSO BE UNDERNEATH A VERY FAVORABLE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REGIME.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 14.5N  38.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.3N  40.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.4N  43.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.5N  45.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N  46.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.3N  49.4W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 22.4N  51.9W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 24.5N  54.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE DOES NOT LOOK TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN IT DID SIX HOURS\r\nAGO...EXCEPT FOR THE DEEP CONVECTION BUBBLING IN SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT\r\nPORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  PERHAPS SOME CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY\r\nINCREASED A LITTLE NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT EVEN THAT SEEMS\r\nTO BE ON THE DECREASE AGAIN.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES.  HELENE APPEARS TO BE\r\nINGESTING SOME DRY AIR...AND IT MIGHT TAKE A WHILE FOR INNER CORE\r\nCONVECTION TO BECOME PERSISTENT.  THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE\r\nAND IS ALSO A SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.  HELENE IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...JUST NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS THE SHIPS AND GFDL ARE\r\nSUGGESTING.\r\n\r\nHELENE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 13 KT ALONG A HEADING\r\nBETWEEN 285 AND 290 DEGREES...WITH STEERING PROVIDED BY THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN\r\nREASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.  AFTER THAT THE MODELS\r\nDIVERGE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY...BOUNDED BY THE NOGAPS ON THE LEFT\r\nAND TURNING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...AND THE GFDL ON THE RIGHT AND\r\nRACING HELENE NORTHWARD.  THE DISAGREEMENT SEEMS TO STEM FROM HOW\r\nEACH MODEL HANDLES A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES THAT WILL BE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING\r\nTHE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  IF THE NOGAPS IS CORRECT...ENOUGH RIDGING\r\nWILL REMAIN BETWEEN THAT TROUGH AND HELENE TO ALLOW THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN WESTWARD.  THE GFDL AND GFS...HOWEVER...FORECAST\r\nHELENE TO GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE BY ROUNDING THE RIDGE SUCH THAT THE\r\nAPPROACHING TROUGH WILL PICK UP HELENE.  I AM NOT YET CONFIDENT THE\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HELENE WILL BREAK DOWN THAT FAST...SO THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...AND IT IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 15.0N  40.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  42.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 17.0N  44.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N  46.0W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N  47.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 21.0N  50.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N  52.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 24.5N  54.5W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nGOES AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN\r\nIS BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE\r\nCONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE IS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH WITH NUMEROUS\r\nRAINBANDS ALL AROUND. THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY DEFINED TO THE SOUTH\r\nAND TO THE WEST.  IN FACT...T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT\r\nINTENSITIES OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS. I AM ONLY GOING TO MENTION THE\r\nWELL-KNOWN PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...LOW SHEAR AND\r\nWARM OCEAN...AND THESE TWO ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.\r\n \r\nHELENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. HELENE IS\r\nCURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTOWARD A LARGE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WHICH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH...\r\nUNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN\r\nWATER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 15.8N  41.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N  43.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.8N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N  46.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  48.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  50.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  53.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  55.0W    85 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE IS DEFINITELY STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME AND IS VERY NEAR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE\r\nCYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. THE\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS MOST IMPRESSIVE TO THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.  ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HELENE WILL\r\nCONTINUE IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER\r\nWATERS...ACCORDING TO BUOY DATA NEARBY. THERE ARE NO OTHER APPARENT\r\nCONDITIONS THAT COULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 2\r\nTO 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\nHELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES...BACK AT\r\nTHE EARLIER SPEED OF 13 KNOTS...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST\r\nTO BE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL LIKELY ERODE THE RIDGE.\r\nTHE EXPECTED STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE HELENE TO GRADUALLY TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS IS THE\r\nGENERAL SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT MODELS VARY\r\nIN HOW FAR WEST THEY BRING HELENE DEPENDING ON EACH MODEL'S\r\nFORECAST REPRESENTATION OF THE RIDGE. NEVERTHELESS...NO MODEL\r\nBRINGS HELENE PAST 60W LONGITUDE IN FIVE DAYS IN THE LATEST MORNING\r\nRUN...AND IN FACT...MOST OF THEM TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 16.7N  42.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.7N  44.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.6N  46.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N  47.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N  49.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N  51.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  54.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 26.0N  56.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. HELENE APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK\r\nBASED ON A PLETHORA OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION...HOWEVER...IS SOUTH OF THE CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES\r\nWHICH APPEAR TO BE A REFLECTION OF A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nMICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE ADVISORY MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR\r\nTO THE NORTH...BUT CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WAS\r\nFOLLOWED GIVEN THAT HELENE STILL HAS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nAND REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER FARTHER NORTH IS STILL POSSIBLE.\r\nOTHERWISE...THERE REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL\r\nFORECAST TRACKS AND REASONINGS. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT\r\nAGREEMENT ON A STEADY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE\r\nGFDL TAKING HELENE MORE NORTHWARD...WHILE THE NOGAPS MODEL TAKES\r\nTHE CYCLONE MORE WESTWARD. THE REST OF THE MODELS ARE SPREAD OUT\r\nEVENLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO EXTREMES. HOWEVER...ALL THE MODELS AGREE\r\nTHAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nWILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THEN EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE STEERING FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF HELENE BY 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS...WHICH USUALLY\r\nFAVORS STEADY INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR IS STILL BEING\r\nENTRAINED INTO THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE AS NOTED IN MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS. AFTER THAT...DECREASING VERTICALLY SHEAR AND INCREASING SSTS\r\nSHOULD LEAD TO MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AND HELENE COULD\r\nBECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY 72 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH 120H.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 17.2N  43.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 17.9N  45.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.9N  46.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 19.8N  48.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.7N  49.4W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 22.4N  51.8W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 24.0N  54.6W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 26.0N  57.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nA SERIES OF MICROWAVE OVERPASSES REVEALS THAT HELENE HAS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...BUT WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT DOES NOT\r\nPERSIST IN THE SAME QUADRANT FOR VERY LONG. THE MOST RECENT IMAGE\r\nFROM AMSR-E AT 0420 UTC INDICATED THAT DEEP CONVECTION WAS PRESENT\r\nONLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND GOES IMAGERY SINCE THEN\r\nSHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST SIDE.\r\nMEANWHILE...THERE IS VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. EVEN THOUGH DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 4.0\r\nUSING AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN...CORRESPONDING TO AN INTENSITY OF\r\n65 KT...THE PERCOLATING BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVECTION LEADS ME TO\r\nLEAVE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR NOW. NEVERTHELESS...THE\r\nENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE ENOUGH FOR HELENE TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE LATER TODAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL BOTH FORECAST GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nFOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER THE SHIPS LEVELS OFF NEAR 80 KT...\r\nBUT THE GFDL ANTICIPATES HELENE LATER APPROACHING MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THOSE TWO\r\nMODELS EARLY ON...THEN FOLLOWS THE GFDL...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE PULSATING CONVECTIVE PATTERN...I WOULD NOT HAVE A VERY\r\nGOOD IDEA WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS WITHOUT THE BENEFIT OF THE\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY...WHICH INDICATES THE INITIAL MOTION IS\r\nESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED AT 300/13.  ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A\r\nMOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS\r\nINTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. \r\nTHAT WEAKNESS IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE GORDON AND\r\nSHOULD BE REINFORCED BY A SHORT-WAVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT\r\nWILL MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING\r\nTHE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THAT FEATURE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH TO\r\nTURN HELENE NORTHWARD...BUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE\r\nWESTERN UNITED STATES PROBABLY WILL...WHEN IT GETS INTO THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC IN SEVERAL DAYS.  NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN\r\nHELENE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH ON DAY 5...AND THAT\r\nTURN IS NOW INTRODUCED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS\r\nOTHERWISE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 17.9N  44.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 18.8N  46.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 19.7N  47.6W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.6N  49.1W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 21.4N  50.4W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 23.0N  53.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 25.0N  56.0W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 28.0N  58.0W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF\r\nHELENE WITH ROBUST BANDING CONVECTION ON THE NORTH AND WEST\r\nQUADRANTS...AND A RAGGED EYE ATTEMPTING TO FORM AS SEEN IN THE\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY.  MOREOVER...SSMI AND AMSU PASSES SHOW A NEARLY\r\nCOMPLETE EYEWALL.  BASED UPON CONSENSUS OF DVORAK ESTIMATES...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  WHILE A SAHARAN AIR-LAYER\r\nIS SEEN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF HELENE IN CIMSS IMAGERY...TOTAL\r\nPRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES FROM CIRA SUGGEST THAT THE DRY AIR\r\nREMAINS AT LEAST A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES FROM THE CENTER OF THE\r\nSYSTEM. CONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS SUGGESTED OVER THE NEXT\r\nTHREE DAYS DUE TO 27.5 C SSTS...LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND\r\nA MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE SSTS WARM UP...BUT\r\nSHEAR INCREASES MAY MITIGATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  A PLATEAUING\r\nOF THE INTENSITY IS CALLED FOR AROUND 72 HRS WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING\r\nTHEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...FSU\r\nSUPER-ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN\r\nPREVIOUSLY PREDICTED AT THE LONG-LEADS.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12.  HELENE IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE\r\nOF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE AND IS HEADED TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE...\r\nWHICH IS PARTIALLY BEING PRODUCED BY HURRICANE GORDON.  ALL\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH A CONTINUED MOVEMENT\r\nALONG THIS HEADING THROUGH 72 HR.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THERE IS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT MODEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE UK...GFDL...ECMWF BEING\r\nFASTER AND OFF TO THE NORTH AND THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SLOWER AND\r\nOFF TO THE SOUTH.  THESE DIFFERENCES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY THE\r\nAMPLITUDE OF THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE PUSHING OFF OF THE\r\nUS EAST COAST AT THAT TIME.  THE NOGAPS AND CONSENSUS MODELS ARE IN\r\nBETWEEN THESE POSSIBILITIES.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS AND SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nA G-IV AIRCRAFT RESEARCH MISSION IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO SAMPLE\r\nHELENE'S ENVIRONMENT AS PART OF NOAA'S SALEX EXPERIMENT.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 18.8N  45.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N  46.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.4N  48.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.1N  49.4W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.9N  50.6W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  53.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 25.5N  56.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 28.5N  58.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT CHANGED AND A RAGGED EYE\r\nHAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.  CIMSS\r\nEXPERIMENTAL ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ALSO SUGGESTS MINIMAL\r\nHURRICANE INTENSITY.  THUS...A 65 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED. \r\nTODAY...A NOAA SALEX...SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXPERIMENT...MISSION ON\r\nTHE G-IV AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN TAKING OBSERVATIONS IN THE PERIPHERY OF\r\nHELENE.  WHILE THESE DROPWINDSONDES ARE SHOWING SUBSTANTIAL DRY\r\nAIR...CIRA PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSES SUGGEST THAT SUFFICIENT\r\nMOISTURE IS FOUND IN THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE.  BECAUSE OF 27.5 C\r\nSSTS...LIGHT/MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A MOIST ENVIRONMENT...\r\nCONTINUED SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED.  AFTER TWO DAYS...\r\nBOTH THE SHEAR AND SSTS INCREASE.  BECAUSE OF THESE CONFLICTING\r\nENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS...HELENE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY\r\nNEAR 85 KT AT DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH SLIGHT WEAKENING THEREAFTER.  IT IS\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL FIELDS RETAIN WEAKER SHEAR INTO LONGER\r\nLEAD TIMES THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY ABOVE THE STANDARD SHIPS MODEL DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF AN\r\nENHANCING MICROWAVE PREDICTOR IN THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-MICROWAVE\r\nMODEL AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION.\r\n \r\nCURRENT MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 310/11.  HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD A\r\nBREAK IN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AXIS.  AFTER DAY 2...THERE IS A LARGE MODEL DIVERGENCE IN THE\r\nTRACK OF HELENE.  THE GFDL AND UK QUICKLY ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM TO\r\nTHE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF OF THE US\r\nATLANTIC SEABOARD.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFS...THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND\r\nTHE ECMWF MODELS TURN HELENE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND DO NOT HAVE\r\nIT PICKED UP BY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE NOGAPS AND GFDN\r\nMODELS...AS WELL AS CONSENSUS APPROACHES...SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. \r\nAS IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHICH GROUP WILL BE CORRECT...THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST DEPICTED HERE IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SLOWER AND JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\nPERHAPS WITH THE MODEL ASSIMILATION OF THE SALEX DROPWINDSONDES...\r\nTHE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES WILL BE REDUCED IN THE NEXT FORECAST\r\nCYCLE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 19.3N  46.3W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.0N  47.4W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 20.9N  48.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.8N  49.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.6N  51.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  53.5W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 26.0N  56.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 29.0N  57.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...DESPITE A SHORT TERM\r\nMOTION OF 290/09 BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. THE LATTER MOTION IS BELIEVED\r\nTO BE A SHORT TERM WOBBLE AS THE CENTER REORGANIZES WITHIN THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON HELENE\r\nMOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND THEN MAKE A SLIGHT\r\nWESTWARD BEND IN 48-72 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE MODELS DIVERGE QUITE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFDL...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS MODEL\r\nTAKING HELENE NORTHWARD...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...THE\r\nBAMS...AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP THE HURRICANE ON A\r\nMORE WESTWARD COURSE AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF HELENE OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY DAY 5. WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY AND 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE UPPER-LOW THAT\r\nHAS RECENTLY MOVED OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC COAST HAS BEEN MOVING\r\nEASTWARD SIMILAR TO THE GFS SOLUTION...RATHER THAN DIGGING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA AS FORECAST BY THE OTHER MODELS. WITH\r\nTHE STRONGEST WINDS NOW INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND\r\nUPPER-AIR DATA TO BE ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW...\r\nTHE 18Z GFS RUN MAY BE INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE MODEL\r\nFORECAST TRACKS COULD BE FORTHCOMING. HOWEVER...UNTIL THE OTHER\r\nMODELS MAKE A CHANGE SIMILAR TO THE GFS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS\r\nONLY NUDGED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...BASED MAINLY ON THE MORE SOUTHERLY\r\nINITIAL POSITION...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE\r\nNHC MODEL CONSENSUS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.\r\n \r\nAN EARLIER WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED HELENE POSSESSED A\r\nWELL DEVELOPED LOW-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. SINCE THEN...THE RAGGED EYE\r\nFEATURE NOTED PREVIOUSLY IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS\r\nERODED...ALTHOUGH THE PAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SUGGEST THAT A BANDING\r\nEYE FEATURE MAY BE FORMING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO\r\n70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\nONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS HELENE CONTINUES TO BATTLE\r\nPERIODIC INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR. THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN AND\r\nUPSTREAM SSTS FAVORS MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...BUT IT IS\r\nTOO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS TIME JUST WHEN AND IF HELENE WILL\r\nEVENTUALLY OVERCOME THE EFFECTS OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 19.5N  47.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N  48.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.2N  49.7W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 22.1N  50.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 22.9N  52.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 24.1N  55.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 26.0N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 29.0N  58.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nSHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AROUND \r\nTHE CENTER OF HELENE...WITH A BROAD BANDING TYPE EYE IS SEEN IN\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.  GIVEN THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE...A\r\nSOMEWHAT SURPRISING...VERY LARGE 45 TO 60 NM WIDE EYE WAS DETECTED\r\nON A RECENT 0502 UTC AQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS.  BASED ON THE\r\nMICROWAVE DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM \r\nSAB AND TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KT.  \r\n\r\nTHE FUTURE TRACK OF HELENE APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW \r\nTHE VARIOUS MODELS ARE HANDLING A COUPLE OF KEY FEATURES. THE FIRST  \r\nIS THE AMOUNT OF RIDGING THAT BUILDS BETWEEN HELENE AND THE\r\nDEPARTING HURRICANE GORDON TO THE NORTH...AND THE SECOND IS THE\r\nSTRENGTH OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN A COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS. IN ANY CASE...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST HEADING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS EXTREMELY\r\nLARGE. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...AS IT\r\nWEAKENS THE TROUGH BETWEEN THE U.S. AND BERMUDA AND BUILDS A NARROW\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...ALLOWING HELENE\r\nTO MOVE MORE WESTWARD.  THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS KEEP\r\nENOUGH OF A TROUGH NEAR BERMUDA TO IMPART A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5.  IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE GFDL...WHICH USES\r\nTHE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE GFS MODEL...IS ON THE FAR RIGHT SIDE\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.  UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR AS TO WHICH\r\nMODEL SOLUTION MAY BE CORRECT...THE OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS NEAR THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nWITH LOW SHEAR AND WARMER SSTS ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH OF\r\nHELENE...THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT\r\nHELENE WILL BE APPROACHING AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS SOME WEAKENING AT DAYS 4 \r\nAND 5...HOWEVER NOT AS MUCH INDICATED BY THE SHIPS MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 20.0N  48.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 20.7N  49.3W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 21.7N  50.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 22.6N  51.7W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 23.3N  53.2W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N  56.0W    95 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N  58.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 29.0N  59.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT HELENE HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE\r\nRAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE ADVANCED OBJECTIVE TECHNIQUE FROM\r\nTHE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN IS 5.6. ON THIS BASIS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR AN \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE\r\nSHEAR INCREASES AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS MODEL. THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nHELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO COULD BE DESCRIBED AS SUCH...HELENE CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND MOVING\r\nTOWARD A WEAKNESS CAUSED BY A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE JUST EAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES CAST. THEN...AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT THE\r\nAREA...THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY BUILD WESTWARD FORCING HELENE TO\r\nTEMPORARILY TURN MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. AFTER 3 DAYS...A\r\nLARGER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND FINALLY PICK UP\r\nHELENE. THE DILEMMA IS HOW FAR WEST WILL HELENE GO SINCE TWO GOOD\r\nMODELS DIVERGE...PUTTING ME BETWEEN A ROCK AND HARD PLACE. THE GOOD\r\nGFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE THE WESTERNMOST SOLUTIONS WHILE\r\nTHE OUTSTANDING AND HARD TO BEAT GFDL HAS HELENE TURNING NORTHWARD\r\nFARTHER EAST. SINCE THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE IS IN BETWEEN THESE\r\nTWO EXTREME OPTIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES IT AS WELL.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 20.5N  49.0W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 21.3N  50.1W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.5N  51.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N  53.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  54.5W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N  57.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N  59.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z 30.0N  59.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A DATA BONUS TODAY. A NOAA P-3 PLANE ON A RESEARCH\r\nMISSION HAS MADE TWO FIXES ON HELENE AND JUST REPORTED A MINIMUM\r\nPRESSURE OF 970 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 111 KNOTS AT 850 MB. A\r\nDROPSONDE MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 90 KNOTS BUT THIS MIGHT NOT\r\nREPRESENT A SUSTAINED VALUE. ALL OF THE ABOVE OBSERVATIONS\r\nCOINCIDES WITH T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE ESTIMATED BY\r\nALL AGENCIES. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY A LITTLE BIT\r\nSINCE THE SFMR ON BOARD OF NOAA PLANE HAS ONLY REPORTED PEAK WINDS\r\nOF 80 KNOTS SO FAR.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE\r\nPRESENTATION...THE 3-H AVERAGE OBJECTIVE NUMBERS AODT= 5.6 FROM\r\nUW-CIMSS...AND THE DROP IN PRESSURE FROM THE 976 MB VALUE IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS AT THIS\r\nTIME.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AS SUGGESTED BY SHIPS MODEL.\r\nTHE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WARM ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. \r\n\r\nHELENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS\r\nBETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WEAKNESS LEFT BY HURRICANE\r\nGORDON. HOWEVER...AS GORDON MOVES OUT THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBUILD WESTWARD AND THIS PATTERN COULD STEER HELENE TEMPORARILY ON A\r\nMORE WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL A LARGE TROUGH BECOMES IN PLACE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND FORCES HELENE NORTHWARD. THE WESTWARD TURN FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS IS SHOWN BY EVERY MODEL. THERE IS HIGH\r\nUNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER SINCE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SHIFTING THE\r\nTRACK FROM ONE RUN TO THE NEXT. THE GFS HAS HAD THE LEFTMOST TRACK\r\nSO FAR...BUT NOW THE UKMET MODEL HAS SHIFTED TO NEAR THE GFS\r\nSOLUTION. THE GFDL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN TURNING HELENE\r\nNORTHWARD AND ITS SOLUTION IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 21.2N  49.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N  50.3W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.8N  51.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.1N  53.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N  55.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 24.5N  57.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 27.1N  59.5W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z 30.5N  61.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nTHE HURRICANE IS LOOKING STRONGER THIS EVENING WITH THE RING OF\r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION COOLING AROUND THE WARM EYE. IN ADDITION... THE\r\nINNER CORE IS MORE SYMMETRIC THAN A FEW HOURS AGO WITH CIRRUS\r\nOUTFLOW EXPANDING IN ALL DIRECTIONS... ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST.\r\nSUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT HELENE IS A\r\nMAJOR HURRICANE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN CONSERVATIVELY\r\nINCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING HELENE THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OF\r\nTHE SEASON. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS HINDRANCES TO FUTURE\r\nINTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HELENE MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY WARMER WATERS AND STAYS IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR\r\nENVIRONMENT. CURIOUSLY... THE SHIPS/GFDL DO NOT SHOW MUCH FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nMORE INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN SHIPS/GFDL AND CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING COULD COMMENCE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS SOME MODELS HINT AT\r\nAN INCREASE IN SHEAR. HOWEVER THE LARGE SPREAD OF THE TRACK MODELS\r\nIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAKES FOR A MORE UNCERTAIN INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST THAN USUAL AT 3-5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...\r\nABOUT 315/7. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL\r\nMOTION CONTINUING FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AS RIDGING REBUILDS IN BETWEEN GORDON AND\r\nHELENE. THEREAFTER... THE BIG PROBLEM IS IF A TROUGH... NOW\r\nCURRENTLY JUST OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED STATES... WEAKENS THE RIDGE\r\nENOUGH TO ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO BE PICKED UP BY A SECOND TROUGH IN\r\nA FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SPLIT INTO TWO CLUSTERS.\r\nTHE GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LEAVE THE\r\nHURRICANE BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF/GFDL BELIEVE THE TROUGH WILL\r\nACCELERATE THE HURRICANE OUT TO SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN\r\nTRENDING WESTWARD WITH TIME... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARD THE WESTWARD CLUSTER OF GFS/UKMET/NOGAPS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 21.6N  49.4W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 22.3N  50.2W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 23.0N  51.5W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 23.3N  53.1W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 23.6N  54.8W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 25.0N  58.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 27.5N  59.5W    95 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z 29.5N  61.5W    90 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE...AND THIS UPPER LOW MAY BE\r\nRESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORE NORTHWARD CURRENT MOTION.  AS THIS\r\nLOW...ALONG WITH HURRICANE GORDON...LIFT OUT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF HELENE.  THIS RIDGING\r\nIS EXPECTED TO FORCE HELENE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR TWO...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nHAD A DECIDED SHORT-TERM WESTWARD BIAS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.\r\n \r\nTHE LONGER RANGE PROGNOSIS IS LESS CLEAR. A DEEP-LAYER LOW CURRENTLY\r\nEXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE BAHAMAS...AND\r\nA SECOND LARGE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS\r\nARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WEAKENING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW AND\r\nBRINGING THE SECOND TROUGH THROUGH NEW ENGLAND IN 4 TO 5 DAYS...\r\nALLOWING SOME RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY DAY 5.\r\nHOWEVER...THE SPECIFIC INTERACTIONS BETWEEN HELENE AND THESE\r\nVARIOUS FEATURES VARY WIDELY AMONG THE MODELS. ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF\r\nTHE GUIDANCE SUITE...THE GFDL AND CANADIAN MODELS HAVE HELENE\r\nLIFTED NORTH BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW JUST ENOUGH TO THEN BE\r\nPICKED UP BY THE PLAINS TROUGH. ON THE LEFT ARE THE UKMET AND\r\nNOGAPS...WHICH KEEP HELENE FARTHER SOUTH INITIALLY AND END UP WITH\r\nIT CAPTURED OR SLOWED BY THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE ON DAY 5. THE\r\nGFS...WHICH HAD BEEN LEANING LEFT...HAS NOW SHIFTED TO THE CENTER\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE 00Z RUN OF THE GFS FORECASTS THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TO BE WEAKER AND DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS RUN...AND THIS IS ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A RATHER LARGE\r\nNORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF HELENE IN THE MODEL. CONVERSELY THE\r\nECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN SHOWING A RAPID RECURVATURE...HAS SHIFTED\r\nLEFT AND IS NOW PRETTY CLOSE TO THE GFS. THE BOTTOM LINE OF ALL\r\nTHIS IS THAT WHAT HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...THAT\r\nIS...HOW MUCH LATITUDE HELENE CAN GAIN...COULD MAKE ALL THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN A QUICK RECURVATURE AND AN AGONIZINGLY SLOW PATH\r\nTHROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nSHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS\r\nSTILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  IT IS PERHAPS OBVIOUS BY NOW THAT I CONSIDER THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST TO HAVE MORE THAN THE NORMAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.\r\n \r\nEYEWALL CONVECTION IS A LITTLE COLDER AND MORE SYMMETRIC THAN IT WAS\r\n6 HOURS AGO. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE 102 KT...WHILE THE CIMSS/ADT ESTIMATES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER\r\nAND HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE ADVISORY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 105\r\nKT. THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS VERY STRONG...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS\r\nBEEN SOME FLATTENING ON THE WESTERN SIDE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nSMALL UPPER LOW. THIS LOW COMPLICATES THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  ALTHOUGH AT THE MOMENT IT MAY BE IMPEDING THE OUTFLOW...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT VORTICITY FROM THIS LOW IS BEING\r\nENTRAINED INTO HELENE...AND THIS KIND OF TROUGH INTERACTION CAN\r\nSOMETIMES PROVIDE A KICK START FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE. \r\nALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT HELENE WILL BE AT OR NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 22.3N  49.6W   105 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 23.1N  50.4W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 23.7N  51.7W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N  53.3W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 24.3N  55.0W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N  57.5W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 28.2N  58.9W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z 30.0N  60.0W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE AND GORDON WERE BASICALLY AT THE SAME LONGITUDE THIS MORNING\r\nAND THERE WAS A WEAKENING ON THE RIDGE NORTH OF HELENE. THIS\r\nRESULTED IN HELENE MOVING IN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE\r\nPAST SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANE IS\r\nREADY TO BEGIN THE WESTWARD TURN ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nIN FACT...HELENE HAS ALREADY TURNED A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THE TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nWHILE A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF HELENE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY. THIS\r\nPATTERN WOULD TEMPORARILY STEER HELENE ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE\r\nTROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TROUGH WILL\r\nFORCE HELENE SLOWLY NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH...THE CONFIDENCE IS QUITE\r\nHIGH THAT HELENE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN NORTHWARD...IT IS VERY\r\nDIFFICULT TO FORECAST THE LONGITUDE THIS WILL OCCUR. THERE ARE SOME\r\nINDICATIONS FROM THE LAST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THAT BY DAYS 4\r\nAND 5...THE STEERING CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND HELENE WILL BE MOVING\r\nVERY SLOWLY.        \r\n\r\nTHERE HAS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...JUST A SMALL\r\nINCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 110 KNOTS.  A NOAA P3 PLANE AND NOAA G4\r\nJET...CURRENTLY ON A RESEARCH MISSION IN THE AREA WILL BE PROVIDING\r\nVALUABLE DATA THIS AFTERNOON AND WE COULD HAVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE AND THE STEERING.  HELENE COULD\r\nSTRENGTHEN JUST LITTLE BIT MORE SINCE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE\r\nOCEAN IS WARM.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST\r\nLITTLE CHANGE OR GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 23.2N  50.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 23.9N  51.0W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 24.3N  52.8W   115 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 24.3N  54.5W   115 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N  56.0W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N  58.0W   105 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 29.5N  59.5W   100 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z 31.5N  60.5W    95 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-09-18 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nA NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MADE A PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF HELENE\r\nEARLIER TODAY AND FOUND THAT THE HURRICANE WAS NOT AS STRONG AS\r\nPREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED BY SATELLITE. THEY MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE\r\nOF 966 MB AND SEVERAL MILLIBARS LOWER TWO HOURS LATER. MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS REPORTED FROM THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONBOARD THE PLANE WERE ONLY\r\n79 KNOTS. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION STILL SUPPORTS WINDS\r\nSTRONGER THAN 100 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME...I AM ASSUMING THAT THE NOAA\r\nPLANE DID NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 100 KNOTS. IF THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION\r\nDETERIORATES LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WINDS COULD BE ADJUSTED\r\nDOWNWARD. HELENE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. \r\nMOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n\r\nHELENE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8\r\nKNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HELENE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS PATTERN WOULD TEMPORARILY\r\nSTEER HELENE TOWARD THE WEST. HOWEVER...BEYOND TWO DAYS A LARGE\r\nTROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...FORCING\r\nHELENE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH INCREASING FORWARD\r\nSPEED. I AM MUCH MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS TRACK FORECAST SINCE ALL\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THEIR SOLUTION\r\nBECAME CLOSER TO THE GFDL...WHICH HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY TURNING HELENE\r\nNORTHWARD ALL ALONG. DUE TO THE EASTWARD CHANGE IN THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS IN THE LATEST RUN...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A\r\nLITTLE BIT EASTWARD AND IS NOW SHOWING RECURVATURE EAST OF 60W\r\nLONGITUDE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/2100Z 23.9N  51.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0600Z 24.6N  52.2W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/1800Z 24.7N  54.0W   105 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/0600Z 24.8N  56.5W   105 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/1800Z 26.0N  57.0W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     21/1800Z 29.5N  58.5W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     22/1800Z 33.0N  57.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     23/1800Z 40.0N  50.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-09-19 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HELENE IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED TO THE\r\nNORTH...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nBECOME MORE IMPRESSIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  CENTRAL CONVECTION\r\nIS COOLING AND THE EYE IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nIS RATHER SYMMETRICAL AND EXPANDING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.5 FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES SUPPORT KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 100 KT AT THIS TIME. \r\nTHE HURRICANE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARM OCEAN WATERS AND THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST\r\nIS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.  INDEED...GIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF\r\nTHE INNER CORE...THIS INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE...\r\nAND HELENE CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n\r\nHELENE IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...300/7.  A MORE WESTWARD\r\nCOMPONENT OF MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE GFDL MODEL EVEN DEPICTS A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nWEST-SOUTHWEST IN 12 HOURS OR SO.  BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...A VERY\r\nLARGE 500 MB TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD NEAR THE U.S. EAST COAST SHOULD\r\nINDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST.  IN 3 TO 5\r\nDAYS HELENE SHOULD BEGIN TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN\r\nPART OF THE TROUGH AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AS WELL AS THE\r\nGFDL...AND ALSO SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0300Z 24.2N  51.4W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1200Z 24.6N  52.7W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N  54.4W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1200Z 25.4N  55.9W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0000Z 26.7N  57.1W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0000Z 31.0N  58.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0000Z 35.5N  56.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0000Z 39.0N  51.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-09-19 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nAS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH HELENE HAS BECOME ELONGATED NORTH TO SOUTH.  A 0449 UTC\r\nAQUA MICROWAVE OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...BUT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE\r\nSATELLITE APPEARANCE AROUND THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY T-NUMBERS REMAIN 5.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 100 KT.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR\r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING AS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND SSTS\r\nWARM.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE\r\nAVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HELENE COULD BECOME A\r\nCATEGORY 4 HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.\r\n \r\nTHE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE STARTED AS INDICATED\r\nBY AN INITIAL MOTION OF 285/7.  IN FACT...THE MOTION OVER THE PAST\r\nFEW HOURS HAS BEEN NEARLY DUE WEST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON\r\nA GENERAL WESTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TEMPORARILY BUILDS NORTH OF HELENE AS\r\nHURRICANE GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.  THE GFDL MODEL\r\nACTUALLY FORECASTS A SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST MOTION TODAY.  IN A\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A LARGE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND\r\nEVENTUALLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...THEREAFTER IT IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE EASTWARD CLOSE TO THE\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL TRACK.  AT DAYS 4 AND 5...THE NHC\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT IT IS NOT AS FAST AS THE OPERATIONAL\r\nGFS OR GFDL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/0900Z 24.4N  52.1W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/1800Z 24.6N  53.4W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/0600Z 25.1N  55.0W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     20/1800Z 26.4N  56.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/0600Z 28.3N  57.1W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/0600Z 33.6N  56.1W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/0600Z 38.0N  52.0W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/0600Z 42.0N  45.0W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-09-19 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nHURRICANE HELENE REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS\r\nMORNING. THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY ELONGATED BUT MAINTAINS ITS CENTRAL\r\nCORE OF DEEP CONVECTION... EYE FEATURE AND ALMOST PERFECT OUTFLOW.\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY T-NUMBERS PERSIST AT 5.5 FROM ALL AGENCIES... THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 100 KTS AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nWILL BE 285/7.\r\n\r\nAT THIS MOMENT AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO... HELENE WILL REMAIN\r\nUNDER A DOMINANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BASED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.\r\nTHIS RIDGE WILL SHOULD STEER HELENE OFF TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOR\r\nTHE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS ALLOW FOR SOME FURTHER\r\nSTRENGTHENING. A LARGE UPPER LOW... JUST OFF THE EAST COAST... AND\r\nVERY AMPLFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH... OVER THE EASTERN STATES... WILL\r\nTHEN PHASE AND BEGIN TO INFLUENCE HELENE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE\r\nATLANTIC WILL BREAK DOWN... HELENE WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG\r\nWESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO RECURVE/PROGRESS RAPIDLY DOWNSTREAM INTO\r\nTHE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. AFTER 36 HOURS...\r\nHELENE SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.\r\n\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS/OBJECTIVE AIDS AND GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED WITH THIS OVERALL TRACK AND RECURVATURE BEFORE 60W. THE\r\nONLY SPREAD WITH THE GUIDANCE IS THE FORWARD SPEED AS HELENE TURNS\r\nNORTHWARD AND THE WESTERLIES BECOME INVOLVED. THE OPERATIONAL GFS\r\nIS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE UKMET AND ESPECIALLY THE HI-RES\r\nECMWF ARE THE SLOWEST SOLUTIONS INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. HPC\r\nWILL FOLLOW THE CLOSE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS... WHICH IS\r\nA COMPROMISE OF THESE TWO IDEAS.   \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/1500Z 24.6N  52.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N  54.1W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1200Z 25.9N  55.7W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0000Z 27.5N  56.5W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1200Z 29.7N  56.7W   105 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1200Z 35.0N  55.0W   100 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1200Z 39.5N  49.5W    90 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1200Z 45.0N  40.5W    80 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MUSHER\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-09-19 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nA NOAA AIRCRAFT MADE A COUPLE OF PASSES THROUGH HURRICANE HELENE\r\nEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 960 MB THIS MORNING\r\nAPPEARED CORRECT AS THE PLANE MEASURED 958 MB BEFORE DEEPENING\r\nANOTHER 2 MB AN HOUR LATER. THE MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WIND WAS 98 KNOTS\r\nAT 850 MB IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AND TWO EYE WALLS WERE\r\nPRESENT... 40NM AND 120NM OUT RESPECTIVELY. MICROWAVE SATELLITE\r\nDATA ALSO INDICATED THESE TWO EYEWALL FEATURES THIS MORNING.\r\nDESPITE THE PRESSURE LOWERING SLIGHTLY... THE 90 PERCENT REDUCTION\r\nRULE CONCERNING MAX FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS A 95 KNOT\r\nHURRICANE. PLUS... THIS PRESENT EYEWALL CYCLE WOULD SUGGEST SLIGHT\r\nFILLING OF THE CYCLONE AND THE WINDS LIKELY BROADENING THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE SYSTEM. OTHERWISE HELENE SHOWS TRUE SYMMETRY... A DEEP CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST AND A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE ALL INDICATIVE OF A\r\nMATURE HURRICANE UNDERGOING FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300 DEGREES AT 8 KTS AND THIS MOTION SHOULD\r\nPERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS VERY\r\nCONSISTENT... A QUICK RECURVATURE TO THE NORTH... EVENTUALLY OFF TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND PICKING UP FORWARD MOMENTUM. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAND OBJECTIVE AIDS SUGGEST THIS AS THE UPPER LOW AND AMPLIFIED\r\nUPPER TROUGH UPSTREAM NEAR THE EAST COAST BREAKS DOWN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. HELENE SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTHIS NORTHWARD TREND DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND BEFORE\r\nREACHING 60W LONGITUDE. HPC GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS/GFDL AND UKMET ALONG WITH\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      19/2100Z 24.6N  54.1W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/0600Z 25.2N  55.2W    95 KT\r\n 24HR VT     20/1800Z 26.7N  56.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/0600Z 28.9N  56.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     21/1800Z 32.0N  56.3W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     22/1800Z 39.0N  51.5W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     23/1800Z 45.3N  41.0W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     24/1800Z 49.0N  30.5W    70 KT EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MUSHER\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":31,"Date":"2006-09-20 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE NEAR 100 KT FROM TAFB...SAB\r\nAND AFWA. HOWEVER...A 2039 UTC TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THAT HELENE\r\nWAS IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nTHE SLIGHT FILLING OF THE CYCLONE IS NOT YET FINISHED. IN ADDITION\r\nRECENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME ASYMMETRIES IN THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH A FAIRLY RAGGED EYE AS WELL. THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 275 DEGREES AT 8 KT...HOWEVER A TURN TOWARD\r\nTHE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED SOON. THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48-72 HOURS AND VARIES WITH\r\nFORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. THE GFDL MODEL AND GUNA CONSENSUS WERE\r\nFOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THIS PACKAGE SINCE THESE MODELS HAVE EXHIBITED\r\nTHE BEST PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH HELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND INDICATES A QUICK RECURVATURE\r\nTO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...AND ACCELERATION TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AFTER 48 HOURS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF A LARGE 500 MB \r\nTROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. \r\n \r\nHELENE REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR NOW WITH STRONG UPPER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER ALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION. ONCE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT IS COMPLETED THERE IS THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD REGAIN MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. BY 96 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS...SHOW\r\nCONSIDERABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE...JUSTIFYING A FORECAST OF TRANSITION TO A STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM AROUND THAT TIME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0300Z 24.6N  54.8W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1200Z 25.5N  55.7W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0000Z 27.5N  56.8W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1200Z 30.0N  56.8W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0000Z 32.7N  56.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0000Z 39.0N  50.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0000Z 45.0N  40.0W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/0000Z 49.0N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER COBB/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":32,"Date":"2006-09-20 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T5.5/102 KT.\r\nHOWEVER...THE EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BECOME\r\nRAGGED AND LESS DISTINCT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT\r\n95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN\r\nALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 305/08 KT. THE LONG ANTICIPATED\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL\r\nMODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO\r\nFINALLY BE UNDERWAY. A NARROW AND ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nBETWEEN 65W-70W LONGITUDE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN HELENE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...WITH A LARGER AND MORE\r\nHIGHLY-AMPLIFIED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. EAST\r\nCOAST AND ACCELERATING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 HOURS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE\r\nOF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE OUTFLOW PATTERN ON THE WEST SIDE HAS BECOME FLATTENED A LITTLE\r\nBIT AS SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ALONG\r\n65W-70W LONGITUDE IS BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE. THIS\r\nSLIGHTLY UNFAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD INHIBIT THE\r\nINTENSIFICATION PROCESS...BUT THE SHEAR WILL STILL BE LOW ENOUGH\r\nAND THE SSTS WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING...AND\r\nHELENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AGAIN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO\r\nRECURVE IN 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...STEADILY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH DECREASING SSTS SHOULD INITIATE A SLOW\r\nWEAKENING TREND. BY 72-96 HOURS...A TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED AS THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY CAPTURES HELENE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/0900Z 25.3N  55.4W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     20/1800Z 26.4N  56.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/0600Z 28.6N  56.9W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     21/1800Z 31.0N  56.7W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/0600Z 33.9N  55.0W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/0600Z 39.7N  48.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     24/0600Z 45.0N  38.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/0600Z 49.0N  29.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":33,"Date":"2006-09-20 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION ASSOCIATED WITH HELENE HAS DEGRADED THIS\r\nMORNING AS THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AND THE CENTRAL CORE\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AT 102 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE\r\nACTUAL DATA T VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER AT 77 KT.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 90 KT GIVEN THESE DATA.  THE REASONS FOR\r\nTHE CURRENT WEAKENING ARE NOT READILY APPARENT. MICROWAVE DATA FROM\r\nYESTERDAY SUGGESTED THAT HELENE WAS ENTERING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE WHICH MAY HAVE NOT YET COMPLETED.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS THAT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOW RESTRICTED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL\r\nDRY AIR IS IMPINGING UPON THE CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY.  IF THE EYEWALL\r\nREPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT COMPLETE OR THE SHEAR DOES NOT RELAX...\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE.  FURTHER COMPLICATING MATTERS IS\r\nA LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WHICH MAY PROVIDE A TEMPORARY\r\nSHOT OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SHEAR.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO START INTERACTING WITH THE\r\nATTENDANT BAROCLINIC ZONE ULTIMATELY RESULTING IN THE SYSTEM\r\nBEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 72 HOURS. DURING THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...HELENE WILL BE SITUATED NEAR THE RIGHT\r\nENTRANCE REGION OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL JET WHICH MAY PROVIDE\r\nENOUGH ENERGY TO PREVENT WEAKENING. \r\n \r\nHELENE IS MOVING A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/10. THE LONG ANTICIPATED\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A GRADUAL NORTHWARD TURN DURING THE NEXT 36\r\nHOURS FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nTROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nNUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS AND IS LITTLE CHANGED\r\nTHEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALREADY REGISTERING\r\nAT SEVERAL EAST COAST BUOYS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/1500Z 26.0N  56.3W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0000Z 27.3N  57.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1200Z 29.4N  57.3W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0000Z 32.3N  56.4W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1200Z 35.0N  54.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     23/1200Z 40.5N  47.0W    85 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     24/1200Z 46.0N  36.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/1200Z 50.0N  28.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":34,"Date":"2006-09-20 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006\r\n \r\nA NOAA P-3 EQUIPPED WITH THE SFMR INSTRUMENT HAS BEEN SAMPLING\r\nHELENE THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS FAR...THE DATA CONFIRMS THAT THE\r\nEYEWALL IS POORLY DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD.\r\nAS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY SHOULD BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO CHANGES IN\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THE DATA FROM THE SFMR AND THE LARGE WIND\r\nFIELD ARGUE AGAINST A 90 KT HURRICANE...AN EYEWALL DROP REPORTED AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE 960 MB.  IN LIGHT OF THE PRESSURE AND THE FACT THAT THE\r\nPLANE HAS NOT YET SAMPLED THE ENTIRE STORM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS HELD AT 90 KT.  IF THE PLANE DOES NOT FIND HIGHER WINDS IN\r\nSUBSEQUENT PASSES...THE INTENSITY WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED LATER.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY PROBLEMATIC DUE TO THE\r\nCYCLONE INTERACTING WITH A STRONG MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  WHILE IT\r\nIS DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE TROUGH INTERACTIONS...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT HELENE MAY ENCOUNTER WEAKER SHEAR IN THE SHORT-TERM\r\nPRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE\r\nTROUGH.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES HELENE\r\nMAY STRENGTHEN AS A RESULT OF THIS MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  BY\r\nDAY 2...HELENE STARTS TO GET TANGLED UP WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE\r\nULTIMATELY RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  SINCE BAROCLINIC\r\nFORCING IS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...ONLY SLOW\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST.  INDEED HELENE MAY BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nHELENE IS IN THE PROCESS OF A NORTHWARD TURN AND THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 315/08.  GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. BEYOND 72 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE\r\nSHIFTED CONSIDERABLY NORTH WITH THE GFS AND GFDL ALONG THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND THE NOGAPS NEAR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE. SINCE THE NOGAPS PERFORMED WELL DURING GORDON...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ONLY SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nCURRENTLY LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LONG PERIOD SWELLS ARE ALREADY REGISTERING\r\nAT SEVERAL EAST COAST BUOYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      20/2100Z 26.6N  57.1W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/0600Z 27.9N  57.5W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     21/1800Z 30.6N  57.2W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/0600Z 33.9N  55.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     22/1800Z 37.5N  52.3W    85 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     23/1800Z 43.5N  43.0W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     24/1800Z 48.5N  35.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     25/1800Z 52.0N  28.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":35,"Date":"2006-09-21 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2006\r\n \r\nOVERALL...HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND\r\nEVENING SHOWED MINIMAL CONVECTION SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE\r\nCENTER...POSSIBLY DUE TO ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR SEEN IN DATA FROM\r\nNOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT.  SINCE THE LAST MICROWAVE IMAGE...THERE HAS\r\nBEEN SOME COOLING OF THE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE\r\nEYE REMAINS POORLY DEFINED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 85\r\nKT BASED ON FURTHER EXAMINATION OF DATA FROM THE NOAA P-3 MISSION\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  THIS AGREES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF\r\n90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nHELENE HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR WITH THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION NOW 360/8.  THE HURRICANE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN\r\nEND OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN BOTH DIRECTION AND\r\nSPEED AFTER 24-36 HR.  THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN 6\r\nHR AGO.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST\r\nOF...AND IS SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IT IS IN BEST\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n\r\nIN THE SHORT TERM...ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS HELENE TO STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE...AND THIS REMAINS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES\r\nSHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE MODEL RUNS\r\nSEND MIXED SIGNALS ON EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE MODEL SURFACE\r\nFIELDS FORECAST A COLD FRONT TO INTERACT WITH HELENE AT ABOUT 48\r\nHR.  HOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THOSE MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT HELENE MAY NOT BECOME A CLASSIC COLD CORE CYCLONE. \r\nINSTEAD...THEY SUGGEST THAT HELENE WILL BECOME AN ASYMMETRIC WARM\r\nCORE SYSTEM AS TRANSITION BEGINS...THEN REGAIN A SYMMETRIC WARM\r\nCORE.  THIS WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO A NON-TROPICAL SECLUSION PROCESS\r\nRATHER THAN THE NORMAL CONVECTIVE PROCESS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. \r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL\r\nBE DELAYED 24 HR FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS.  REGARDLESS OF THE\r\nEXACT STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION...HELENE SHOULD REMAIN A LARGE AND\r\nPOWERFUL CYCLONE AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS\r\nOF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0300Z 27.1N  57.0W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1200Z 28.6N  57.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0000Z 31.2N  56.3W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1200Z 34.0N  54.5W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0000Z 37.2N  51.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0000Z 43.0N  42.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/0000Z 48.0N  32.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/0000Z 52.0N  24.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":36,"Date":"2006-09-21 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS DECREASED IN AREAL COVERAGE AND\r\nTHE EYE HAS RECENTLY BECOME CLOUD-OBSCURED. SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 80 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...BUT WATER VAPOR AND\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SOME MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOW\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/11. HELENE IS BEGINNING TO ROUND\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-WEST\r\nALONG 29N-30N LATITUDE. A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST THAT EXTENDS FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN\r\nFLORIDA PENINSULA IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD AT 20-25 KT AND SHOULD\r\nGRADUALLY TURN HELENE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...\r\nWITH MORE RAPID ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD...BUT NOT NEARLY\r\nAS FAR EAST AND SOUTH AS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH BRING\r\nHELENE VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHWESTERN AZORES IN 72-96 HOURS. THOSE\r\nTWO MODELS HAD A DISTINCT RIGHT BIAS DURING THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF\r\nFORMER HURRICANE GORDON...SO LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THOSE \r\nSOLUTIONS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nAS HELENE BEGINS TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD...THE MID-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nCOULD ABATE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION WHILE\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS STILL OVER 27C SSTS. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...HELENE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG CYCLONIC MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING BAROCLINIC EFFECTS...CAUSING THE\r\nCYCLONE TO TRANSITION OVER TO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM SIMILAR TO WHAT FORMER HURRICANE GORDON DID YESTERDAY.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 28.4N  56.8W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 30.1N  56.5W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 32.8N  55.3W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 35.6N  52.7W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 38.5N  48.7W    75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 43.9N  39.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 48.0N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 53.0N  22.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":37,"Date":"2006-09-21 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2006\r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE WITH THE\r\nCOLDEST CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS LOCATED PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF HELENE. CONSEQUENTLY...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE  \r\nDECREASED.  USING A BLEND OF THE DVORAK DATA T...AND CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT. \r\nAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THAT SOME\r\nMID-LEVEL SHEAR IS AFFECTING THE HURRICANE.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS... THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND HELENE WILL BE\r\nMOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER SSTS.  ACCORDINGLY...THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE DO NOT RESTRENGTHEN HELENE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWILL NOT EITHER.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEREAFTER IT IS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN THE GUIDANCE AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n  \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/11. HELENE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING\r\nTHE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED WELL EAST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  HELENE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS  TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS\r\nMOVING OFF THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST.  THE GFDL REMAINS ON THE\r\nWESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ON THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE GFS...NOGAPS...AND\r\nFLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 29.6N  56.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 31.4N  56.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 34.1N  54.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 36.8N  51.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 39.6N  46.6W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 45.2N  36.4W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 49.5N  28.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z 54.0N  20.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":38,"Date":"2006-09-21 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006\r\n\r\nA 1531 UTC TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT BANDING FEATURES\r\nWERE CONFINED TO THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HELENE.  WITHIN THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS...HELENE'S APPEARANCE IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE WITH AN AREA OF COLD \r\nCLOUD TOPS EXPANDING OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. \r\nHOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE WEAKENING DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS HELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF ONLY MODEST SHEAR AND OVER 26 TO 27C WATER. \r\nTHEREAFTER...HELENE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS SHEAR\r\nINCREASES AND SSTS COOL.  THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR HELENE TO\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST DURING\r\nTHE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nAND FOLLOWS THE GLOBAL MODELS MORE CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/12.  HELENE CONTINUES TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS THAT HELENE SHOULD VERY SOON ROUND THE RIDGE AND TURN\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH ALONG\r\nTHE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON\r\nTHIS SCENARIO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AS HELENE BECOMES\r\nEXTRATROPICAL THE TRACK MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY.  THE UKMET\r\nTURNS THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...WHILE THE GFS TAKE IT QUICKLY\r\nNORTHWARD MERGING IT WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 5\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE TRACK SHOWN BY THE ECMWF\r\nTRACK...BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE LATER MODEL.\r\n \r\nEVEN THOUGH HELENE IS FORECAST TO RECURVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC\r\nOCEAN...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE EAST\r\nCOAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 30.7N  56.8W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 32.7N  55.9W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 35.4N  53.2W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 37.9N  49.1W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 40.7N  43.7W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 46.5N  32.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 52.0N  23.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z 58.0N  18.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":39,"Date":"2006-09-22 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 21 2006\r\n\r\nTHE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY DURING\r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND COLD CLOUD TOPS HAVE EXPANDED AND\r\nBECOME MORE CONCENTRIC AROUND THE CENTER.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS\r\nHAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 OR 77 KT FOR BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN BUMPED UP TO 75 KT.   \r\n\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. \r\nHELENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER 26C TO 27C WATER FOR THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS OR SO WITH ONLY A MARGINAL INCREASE IN WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THIS SHOULD KEEP HELENE IN A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT DAY. \r\nAFTER WHICH...VERY SLOW WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AS HELENE\r\nTRANSITIONS INTO A POTENTIALLY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\nABOUT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AS COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO THE WESTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 015/12.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH RACING EASTWARD TOWARD\r\nHELENE WITH A DRY PUNCH OUT AHEAD OF IT.  THIS TROUGH WILL HELP\r\nACCELERATE HELENE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT\r\n48 TO 72 HOURS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...THEN THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AS HELENE\r\nBECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  THE UKMET IS THE GREATEST OUTLIER AND TAKES\r\nHELENE TO THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH...AND SHIFTS THE\r\nCONSENSUS GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.  THE GFS HAS A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD TRACK WHILE THE GFDL...NOGAPS...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nTAKE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT REMAINS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT\r\nWITH GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. \r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT DATA FROM A 2226 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 31.8N  56.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 33.6N  54.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 36.3N  51.2W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 38.9N  45.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 41.7N  40.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 47.0N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 51.5N  23.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z 58.0N  17.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":40,"Date":"2006-09-22 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006\r\n \r\nTHE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS CHANGED LITTLE\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH THE EYE REMAINING CLOUD-OBSCURED. A\r\n22/0518Z AQUA-1 OVERPASS INDICATED HELENE HAD RETAINED GOOD\r\nLOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE...ALTHOUGH THE MID-LEVEL HAD ERODED OVER THE\r\nSOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nAT T4.5/77 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 75 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/13. HELENE IS MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE AS A DEEP-LAYER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 65W LONGITUDE\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE CYCLONE. HELENE SHOULD BEGIN\r\nTO ACCELERATE AT A MORE RAPID PACE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE\r\nHURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW\r\nAHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH LOCATED TO THE WEST. BY 48 HOURS...\r\nHELENE IS EXPECTED TO PHASE UP WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND\r\nBECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE AZORES ISLANDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND SIMILAR TO THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED WELL WITH GORDON.\r\n \r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS WILL LIMIT ANY\r\nINTENSIFICATION TO THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...BEFORE SLOW WEAKENING\r\nBEGINS AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...HELENE WILL BE PHASING UP WITH A\r\nSTRONG NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN 36-48 HOURS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD HELP THE SYSTEM EVOLVE INTO A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW. IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL STRENGTHENS THE EXTRATROPICAL-\r\nHELENE CIRCULATION TO 108 KT BY 72 HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS IS LIKELY BEING OVERDONE BY THE MODEL OVERDONE...IT IS\r\nLIKELY A REASONABLE INDICATOR THAT HELENE WILL EVOLVE INTO A\r\nFORMIDABLE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...PROBABLY STRONGER THAN THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL-GORDON CIRCULATION DID YESTERDAY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 32.9N  55.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 35.0N  53.0W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 37.6N  48.5W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 40.3N  43.0W    65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 43.0N  37.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 47.0N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z 51.5N  22.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/0600Z 58.0N  15.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":41,"Date":"2006-09-22 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE HAS DEGRADED SLIGHTLY OVER THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH INNER CORE CONVECTION STARTING TO SPUTTER\r\nAND FAVOR THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK DATA T\r\nNUMBERS HAVE DECREASED...BUT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT\r\n75 KT FOR NOW IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE DVORAK CI NUMBERS. INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND DECREASING SSTS APPEAR TO BE TAKING THEIR TOLL\r\nON HELENE...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY\r\nLOSES TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON\r\nDAYS 2 AND 3...STRONG BAROCLINIC ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT\r\nFURTHER WEAKENING...WITH HELENE FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nTO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN\r\nWATERS OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE\r\nPRECISE TIMING OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN\r\nGIVEN SOME DIFFERENCES IN STRUCTURAL EVOLUTION AMONG THE\r\nMODELS...AS SHOWN BY THE FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS. TOWARD THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT HELENE WILL LOSE SOME\r\nOF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT WHICH WOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING DURING THE FIRST 24\r\nHOURS GIVEN THE RECENT TRENDS IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. BEYOND 24\r\nHOURS...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE.\r\n \r\nHELENE IS STARTING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 040/18. THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nSTRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nTHROUGH 72 HOURS...AND MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT AT DAYS 4\r\nAND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS\r\nMODEL AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 34.4N  54.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 36.2N  51.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 37.9N  47.4W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 40.0N  42.8W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 42.4N  37.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 47.5N  29.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z 52.5N  20.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1200Z 56.5N  15.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":42,"Date":"2006-09-22 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HELENE CONTINUES TO DEGRADE AS THE\r\nINNER CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE LAST 6\r\nHOURS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED.   \r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT...65 KT...AND 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AFWA...AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. \r\n \r\nTHE OVERALL SATELLITE EVOLUTION DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT HELENE\r\nIS ENTERING THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. IN\r\nADDITION TO DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE...THE OVERALL CLOUD SHIELD IS BECOMING\r\nINCREASINGLY DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER...AND VISIBLE IMAGERY\r\nSUGGESTS THAT HELENE IS NOW STARTING TO INTERACT WITH A BAROCLINIC\r\nZONE JUST TO ITS NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...DETERMINING WHEN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE COMPLETE CONTINUES TO BE\r\nPROBLEMATIC. DESPITE THE RAPIDLY CHANGING STRUCTURE SEEN IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A SHALLOW\r\nWARM CORE CYCLONE...ALBEIT ASYMMETRIC...FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\nGIVING MORE WEIGHT TO THE RECENT TRENDS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW\r\nCALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY 24 HOURS...A LITTLE SOONER\r\nTHAN BEFORE. ONCE HELENE TRANSFORMS INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...BAROCLINIC ENERGY COULD PRODUCE A LITTLE\r\nRESTRENGTHENING...AND HELENE IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nTO BE A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE OPEN\r\nWATERS OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...HELENE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LOSE SOME OF ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT AND GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN.\r\n\r\nHELENE CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nINTO THE MIDDLE LATITUDE WESTERLIES...RESULTING IN ACCELERATION\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 050/18. TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTICEABLY TO THE SOUTH.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nGUIDANCE ANTICIPATED A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO\r\nTHAT NEVER MATERIALIZED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MORE\r\nCONSERVATIVELY SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH...NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 35.4N  53.0W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 36.8N  50.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 38.4N  45.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 40.3N  40.5W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 42.2N  36.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 47.0N  28.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z 51.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     27/1800Z 55.0N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":43,"Date":"2006-09-23 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE IS LOOKING SOMEWHAT LESS TROPICAL IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nEVENING.  ONLY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS NEAR THE CENTER...\r\nWITH THE BULK OF THE COLDER TOPS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT\r\nFROM TAFB...55 KT FROM AFWA...AND EXTRATROPICAL FROM SAB.  QUIKSCAT\r\nDATA FROM 22Z SHOWED 50-60 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH\r\nONE QUESTIONABLE-LOOKING 65 KT VECTOR IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. \r\nBASED ON THE AVAILABLE DATA...HELENE IS DOWNGRADED TO A 60-KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN\r\nEXPANDED CONSIDERABLY BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nHELENE TURNED TO THE RIGHT BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...BUT SINCE THEN\r\nLOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE TURNING BACK TO THE LEFT.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 070/20.  HELENE SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD FOR 72 HR IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nFLOW.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SERIOUS DIVERGENCE IN THE MODEL\r\nFORECASTS.  THE 12Z ECMWF...THE 18Z GFS...AND THE 18Z NOGAPS ALL\r\nTURN HELENE SOUTHWARD AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AZORES.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE 12Z UKMET...THE 18Z GFDL...AND THE 18Z GFS\r\nENSEMBLE-MEAN ALL FORECAST HELENE TO CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD.  SINCE\r\nTHE 18Z GFS AND NOGAPS RUNS SHOW MAJOR CHANGES FROM THEIR PREVIOUS\r\nRUNS THAT TOOK HELENE NORTHEASTWARD...IT IS TOO SOON TO MAKE MAJOR\r\nCHANGES TO THE FORECAST TRACK.  THUS...THE NEW TRACK CALLS FOR A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET.\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER...SUGGESTING THE THE COLD FRONT THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nHAVE BEEN FORECASTING TO INTERACT WITH THE STORM MAY BE A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.  THIS HAS LED TO AN EARLIER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION THAN FORECAST 24-48 HR AGO.  ALTHOUGH THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HELENE MAY KEEP A WARM\r\nCORE OF SOME TYPE FOR THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT\r\nENOUGH COLD AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE STORM TO COMPLETE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 12-24 HR.  HELENE WILL LIKELY\r\nSTRENGTHEN SOME AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THROUGH 36 HR...THEN\r\nGRADUALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 36.0N  50.6W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 37.0N  47.1W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 38.5N  42.6W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 40.0N  38.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 42.1N  33.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 45.5N  26.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z 49.0N  18.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0000Z 53.0N  12.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":44,"Date":"2006-09-23 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006\r\n \r\nA SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -60C HAVE PERSISTED\r\nOVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS...INDICATING THAT\r\nHELENE STILL POSSESSES WARM-CORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nXT3.5/55 KT FROM AFWA. GIVEN THE FORWARD SPEED IS NOW 22 KT...THE\r\nADDITIONAL TRANSLATIONAL SPEED EASILY SUPPORTS 60 KT FOR THE\r\nINTENSITY...ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY COULD BE HIGHER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/22. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. AFTER THE SLIGHT EASTWARD JOG\r\nON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO A\r\nBASE COURSE OF 060 DEGREES...AND THAT GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO\r\nCONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BASED ON THE GFDL...GFDN...NOGAPS...\r\nGFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MODELS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DISPARITIES\r\nBETWEEN THOSE MODELS AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS. BY 72 HOURS...\r\nTHE LATTER TWO MODELS DROP A PIECE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO\r\nTHE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS CAPTURING HELENE....AND \r\nDEVELOP A CLOSED LOW THAT DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AZORES. THE\r\nOTHER MODELS DO THE SAME EXCEPT THAT THEY MERELY WEAKEN HELENE AND\r\nKEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BRITISH ISLES\r\nRATHER THAN RAPIDLY DEEPENING HELENE AND TAKING THE CYCLONE\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE AZORES. GIVEN THAT HELENE IS A DISTINCT ENTITY\r\nTHAT IS STILL VERTICALLY DEEP...IT SEEMS UNLIKELY THAT THERE WILL\r\nBE ENOUGH TIME FOR A NEW MID-LEVEL LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP\r\nSOUTH OF HELENE TO CAPTURE THE CYCLONE AND FORCE IT SOUTHWARD IN\r\n72-120 HOURS LIKE THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING.\r\n \r\nCOLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE POISED TO BE DRAWN INTO THE CENTER\r\nOF HELENE...AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS\r\nTHE 12-H FORECAST PERIOD. BY 24 AND THROUGH 48 HOURS...A SHOT OF\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY BY THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH\r\nSHOULD HELP TO INTENSIFY HELENE AS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 37.2N  48.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 38.2N  44.8W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 39.7N  40.3W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 41.5N  35.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 43.3N  31.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 46.8N  23.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 50.4N  16.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 55.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":45,"Date":"2006-09-23 12:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  45\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n800 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FOR HELENE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nINDICATES THAT HELENE CONTAINS A LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE\r\nWINDS SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS\r\nBASED ON THE STRONGEST WIND IN THE QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH WAS\r\nOUTSIDE OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE WIND\r\nRADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ALSO BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.  EVEN\r\nTHOUGH HELENE HAS STRENGTHENED...IT CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE LATER TODAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1200Z 37.4N  47.2W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 38.2N  44.8W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 39.7N  40.3W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 41.5N  35.8W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 43.3N  31.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 46.8N  23.9W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z 50.4N  16.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/0600Z 55.0N  10.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":46,"Date":"2006-09-23 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  46\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006\r\n\r\nHELENE APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SMALL AREA OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE\r\nSTRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE 0915 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS THAT\r\nSHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80\r\nKT. UNTIL THE INNER CORE CONVECTION DISSIPATES...WHICH COULD HAPPEN\r\nAT ANY TIME...HELENE WILL BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE...WHICH WE ANTICIPATE WILL\r\nHAPPEN LATER TODAY...GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE WIND\r\nFIELD SPREADS OUT. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR\r\nEXTRATROPICAL HELENE TO PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF HURRICANE FORCE\r\nFOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE\r\nIS EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE AZORES DURING THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS...THE LARGE AND EXPANDING WIND FIELD MEANS THAT GALE FORCE\r\nWINDS COULD AFFECT THE AZORES BEGINNING ON SUNDAY.  BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS...WEAKENING COULD BECOME MORE RAPID AS GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL LOSE ITS BAROCLINIC SUPPORT. \r\n\r\nHELENE IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 065/20.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE WITH CONSIDERABLE SPREAD BY DAY 5.  THE\r\nNOGAPS MODEL FORECASTS HELENE TO MERGE WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSYSTEM RESULTING IN A NORTHWARD TURN.  CONVERSELY...THE UKMET AND\r\nECMWF MODELS FORECAST A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO DEVELOP\r\nEAST OF THE AZORES RESULTING IN EXTRATROPICAL HELENE TURNING SOUTH.\r\nAT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IF EITHER OF THESE\r\nOUTLIER SCENARIOS IS MORE PLAUSIBLE.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS NEAR BOTH THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN. COMPARED TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THIS REPRESENTS A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT AND\r\nA SLOWER FORWARD MOTION AT THE END OF THE FORECAST. GIVEN THE LARGE\r\nSPREAD OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY\r\nIN THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.    \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 37.7N  46.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 38.9N  43.0W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 40.7N  38.5W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 42.5N  34.2W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 44.1N  30.7W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 47.0N  23.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z 49.0N  18.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/1200Z 50.5N  13.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":47,"Date":"2006-09-23 21:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  47\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE CURRENTLY DISPLAYS BOTH TROPICAL AND EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS.  THE CYCLONE HAS A FRONTAL-LIKE AND ASYMMETRIC\r\nAPPEARANCE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION.\r\nHOWEVER...FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS DIAGNOSE HELENE TO STILL\r\nHAVE A DEEP WARM CORE WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS ABILITY TO\r\nSTILL PRODUCE CONVECTION...ALBEIT LIMITED...NEAR THE CENTER.  HELENE\r\nIS SOMEWHERE IN PROCESS OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IT IS NOT\r\nCLEAR AT WHAT POINT THE TRANSFORMATION WILL BE COMPLETE.  SINCE THE\r\nOVERALL STRUCTURE APPEARS UNCHANGED SINCE THE EARLIER 0915 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH SHOWED 80 KT MAXIMUM WINDS...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY SHOWS A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY\r\nAPPROACHING HELENE FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED.  IF THIS TREND\r\nCONTINUES...AN INCREASINGLY SHEARED HELENE COULD LOSE WHAT REMAINS\r\nOF ITS INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THEREFORE LOSE WHAT TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IT HAS LEFT.  ASSUMING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION\r\nCOMPLETES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MORE RAPID\r\nWEAKENING IS FORECAST THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE LOSES SOME OF ITS\r\nBAROCLINIC SUPPORT.\r\n \r\nHELENE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK\r\nWITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 070/19.  THERE HAS OTHERWISE\r\nBEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...AND GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48\r\nHOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE BUT NOT\r\nNEARLY AS MUCH AS BEFORE.  THE NOGAPS MODEL...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY\r\nTHE NORTHERN OUTLIER...HAS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTH AND IS NOW\r\nALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.  THE UKMET\r\nMODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY SHOWED A TURN DUE SOUTH WITH THE\r\nECMWF...HAS SHIFTED NORTH AND IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SOUTHWARD\r\nTURN...BUT THIS IS CONSIDERED A LESS LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE NOW\r\nBETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 38.0N  44.4W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 39.1N  40.9W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 41.3N  36.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 43.2N  32.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 44.6N  28.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z 47.0N  21.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     27/1800Z 49.0N  15.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     28/1800Z 51.0N  11.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":48,"Date":"2006-09-24 03:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  48\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE CONTINUES TO HANG ON TO TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  THE\r\nOVERALL APPEARANCE IS VERY SIMILAR TO SIX HOURS AGO...AND\r\nCONVECTION HAS REMAINED CLOSE TO CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.   AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 2025 UTC...STILL SHOWED THE\r\nSYSTEM MAINTAINING A WELL-DEFINED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE\r\nWHICH SUPPORTS THE ANALYSIS OF THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE\r\nDIAGRAMS.  THUS...WE ARE KEEPING HELENE A 75 KT HURRICANE FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.  ANALYSIS OF A 2132 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED THAT THE\r\nWIND RADII HAVE CHANGED IN ORIENTATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS PASS...\r\nAND THE INITIAL WIND RADII REFLECT THESE WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN DETERMINING WHEN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE.  BASED UPON THE CURRENT\r\nAPPEARANCE...THIS SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN 6 TO 18 HOURS...WITH THE HELP\r\nOF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  AFTER WHICH...SLOW WEAKENING\r\nIS ANTICIPATED IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A FASTER WEAKENING\r\nRATE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASED BAROCLINIC ENERGY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 070/20...BUT A SHORTER 6-HOUR\r\nMOTION COULD BE CLOSER TO 25 KT.  THE OVERALL FORECAST TRACK\r\nPHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED.  HELENE SHOULD MAINTAIN AN EAST-\r\nNORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGH 4 DAYS.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nIS WELL CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS...THEN THE GFS AND ECMWF\r\nTAKE A SOUTHWARD TURN.  SINCE THE GFS MODEL LACKS RUN-TO-RUN\r\nCONSISTENCY...IT HAS BEEN GIVEN VERY LITTLE WEIGHT.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN\r\nTHE LATER PERIODS AND JUST SOUTH OF THE GFDL. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 39.1N  41.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 40.5N  38.1W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 42.5N  34.2W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 43.8N  31.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 45.0N  27.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z 47.0N  20.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/0000Z 48.5N  15.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     29/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Helene","Adv":49,"Date":"2006-09-24 09:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  49\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006\r\n \r\nHELENE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCENTER...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS OF IT NOW THAN 6 HOURS\r\nAGO.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 75 KT BASED ON THE EARIER\r\nQUIKSCAT DATA.  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HELENE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. \r\nHOWEVER...INTERACTION WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES\r\nAPPROACHING HELENE COULD KEEP THE WINDS UP...SO LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nINTENSITY IS SHOWN UNTIL AFTER 24 HOURS...WHEN THE BAROCLINIC\r\nFORCING IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH.  HELENE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT IS OVERTAKEN BY THE SHORT-WAVE\r\nTROUGH IN ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF IT HASN'T ALREADY LOST IT'S\r\nDEEP CONVECTION BY THEN.\r\n\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW ON A CONTINUED\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WITH ONLY THE ECMWF DROPPING HELENE\r\nSOUTHWARD NEAR THE AZORES.  MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING\r\nOF THE TRACK IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AS MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE ENERGY\r\nDROPS SOUTH OF HELENE...WEAKENING THE STEERING CURRENT.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND TO A\r\nTIGHTLY-CLUSTERED GFS/GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 39.9N  39.9W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 41.6N  36.6W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 43.2N  33.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 44.5N  30.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 45.0N  26.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z 47.0N  18.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/0600Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Helene","Adv":50,"Date":"2006-09-24 15:00:00","Key":"AL082006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  50\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN NEAR THE CENTER OF HELENE. \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS ACQUIRED\r\nDEFINITIVE FRONTAL FEATURES WITH EXTENSIVE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS EVIDENCED BY THE LARGE\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS FIELD.  MOREOVER...A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0900\r\nUTC SUGGESTED THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BECOMING REMOVED FROM THE\r\nCENTER...AND THE WIND FIELD IS EXPANDING AS IS TYPICAL OF AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE DATA AND MODEL ANALYSES\r\nBASED ON THESE DATA IS SHOWING A WARM CORE...WE BELIEVE THIS IS DUE\r\nTO A WARM SECLUSION THAT IS COMMON IN STRONG EXTRATROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES. BASED ON THE ABOVE ANALYSES...THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION IS CONSIDERED COMPLETE... AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST\r\nADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HELENE.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/18...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AS THE\r\nSYSTEM INTERACTS WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  GUIDANCE\r\nREMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN BEGINS\r\nTO DIVERGE AT THE EXTENDED RANGES.  IN LIGHT OF THE MODEL\r\nSPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY A COUPLE 65 KT VECTORS\r\nAND...ASSUMING GRADUAL WEAKENING SINCE THE TIME OF THOSE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT.  A\r\nCONTINUED SOURCE OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY SHOULD MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE\r\nWITH ONLY SLOW WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL IT COMBINES\r\nWITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC.\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO\r\nHEADERS NFDHSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC AND BY METEOFRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER\r\nFQNT50 LFPW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 40.9N  37.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 42.5N  34.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 43.6N  31.8W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 44.2N  28.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 45.1N  23.7W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z 48.5N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     28/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-09-27 21:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nHAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER-DEFINED IN THE LOW\r\nPRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  ALTHOUGH THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT WRAP MUCH AROUND THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM HAS\r\nSUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A 30 KT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION AT THIS TIME.  AN 1800 UTC SHIP REPORT ABOUT 60 MILES TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED A RATHER HIGH CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nOF 1016.5 MB...A 21 KT SUSTAINED WIND...AND 13 FT SEAS.  BASED ON\r\nTHIS SHIP REPORT...12 FT SEA RADII HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 315/12...SINCE THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER HAS REFORMED AT LEAST ONCE DURING THE PAST 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SITUATED BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL\r\nCYCLONE TO ITS WEST AND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS EAST.  THE\r\nGFS...UKMET... AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL TAKE THE CYCLONE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM AT DAYS\r\nTHREE THROUGH FIVE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH FROM\r\nTHE WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE\r\nPRESENCE OF THE UPPER LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nARGUES AGAINST ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT SOME GRADUAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 26.5N  53.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 27.6N  54.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 29.1N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 31.0N  57.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 34.0N  58.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 39.0N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 42.0N  50.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 46.0N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-09-28 03:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY... MICROWAVE OVERPASSES BY QUIKSCAT AT 2132 UTC\r\nAND SSMIS AT 2309 UTC SUGGEST THAT IT IS NEARING TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HOWEVER...REMAIN 30\r\nKT FROM ALL AGENCIES AND THIS WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  THE\r\nCENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE PRIMARY AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR IMPOSED BY AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE THE SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WHILE SSTS COOL...WHICH SHOULD\r\nINHIBIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/11.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS\r\nPREDICTED TO BE DEPARTING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. \r\nTHIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD...THEN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.  THE GFS IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS IT DEPICTS A MUCH WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW\r\nSYSTEM THAN ANTICIPATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL.  SINCE THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL ARE IN SUCH GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF THE\r\nSYSTEM...THE GFDL TRACK MIGHT BE A MORE LIKELY SOLUTION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED WESTWARD AND SLOWER COMPARED TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL TRACK.\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 27.2N  53.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 28.2N  55.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 29.9N  56.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 31.6N  57.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 33.6N  58.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 38.0N  57.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 42.0N  52.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 46.0N  45.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nine","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-09-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE\r\nREMAINS MOSTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE\r\nAREA.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  SINCE THE CENTER IS STILL EXPOSED AND\r\nTHE CONVECTIVE TOPS ARE CURRENTLY WARMING...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN\r\nA DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR A\r\nDRIFTING BUOY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A\r\nBETTER ESTIMATE OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE.  ALSO...QUIKSCAT DATA\r\nSHOULD BE AVAILABLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC...WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 27N58W.  WEST OF THAT...\r\nBROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGHING COVERS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE\r\nEASTERN UNITED STATES.  IN THE SHORT TERM...FLOW BETWEEN THE\r\nATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOW SHOULD MOVE THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD.  AFTER 24-36 HR...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH TO AMPLIFY...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD RAISE\r\nHEIGHTS NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWER\r\nFORWARD MOTION...AND POSSIBLY A MORE WESTWARD TURN AS FORECAST BY\r\nTHE GFS AND GFDL. AFTER 60 HR...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TROUGH AND\r\nASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE DEPRESSION TO\r\nRECURVE IT NORTHEASTWARD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOTABLY SLOWER\r\nTHAN FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 72 HR...AND THUS\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SLOWED DOWN AS WELL.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nALSO A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CAUSING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE\r\nDEPRESSION.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD\r\nDECREASE DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES NORTH OF THE\r\nUPPER LOW.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AS SHOWN BY\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  DUE\r\nTO INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER LOW...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE\r\nCYCLONE COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT\r\nDEVELOPS.  AFTER 48 HR...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER COOLER WATER\r\nAND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND EVENTUALLY\r\nLEAD TO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 96-120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 27.8N  54.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 28.8N  55.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 30.0N  56.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 31.1N  57.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 32.3N  58.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 36.5N  58.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 42.0N  54.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 47.0N  46.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-09-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE IS A LITTLE SKELETAL... A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS NEAR 0845 UTC PROVIDES STRONG EVIDENCE OF AT LEAST 35\r\nKT WINDS IN THE SYSTEM. THUS THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE\r\nYEAR... ISAAC... IS BORN. THE STORM IS ALSO EXHIBITING SOME\r\nSUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS LARGER\r\nTHAN AVERAGE NEAR 75 NM... AND ALSO AN UPPER LOW IS NEARLY ON TOP\r\nOF THE CYCLONE. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH\r\nUPPER RIDGING NEAR THE STORM. ALTHOUGH SSTS ARE HOVERING NEAR 26C\r\nIN THE PATH OF ISAAC... COLDER-THAN-AVERAGE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nTEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST... WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE\r\nINSTABILITY AND MORE CONVECTION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER THAN SHIPS AND NOT TOO DISSIMILAR FROM THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/7... A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN\r\nEARLIER. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AS\r\nWELL DURING THIS TIME AND COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE TO\r\nTHE LEFT THAN THE CURRENT MOTION. THEREAFTER... AN ENORMOUS TROUGH\r\nCURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MOVE INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND STEER THE STORM AWAY FROM BERMUDA AND NORTH\r\nAMERICA. HOWEVER... MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nUPPER RIDGING WILL HOLD A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED...\r\nAND THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED WESTWARD IN AGREEMENT WITH NHC\r\nGUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL\r\nENVELOPE... BETWEEN THE UKMET AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. ISAAC\r\nSHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3-4 DAYS DUE TO IT PASSING NORTH OF\r\nTHE GULF STREAM AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 28.2N  54.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 28.9N  55.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 29.9N  56.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 30.9N  57.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 32.2N  58.8W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 35.5N  59.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 41.5N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 47.5N  46.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-09-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006\r\n \r\nDURING THE DAY... THE STRUCTURE OF ISAAC HAS BEEN CHANGING. THE\r\nLARGER RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS APPEARS TO HAVE DECREASED WITH\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOWING A MORE COMPACT SYSTEM. AFTER STRUGGLING\r\nMOST OF THE DAY... MODEST CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING IN A CURVED\r\nBAND AROUND THE CENTER. THE CONVECTION HAS NOT BEEN AS DEEP AS\r\nTYPICALLY SEEN IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE... POSSIBLY DUE TO THE STORM\r\nMOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER THAT WAS STIRRED UP BY TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES GORDON AND HELENE. MORE IMPORTANTLY... DRY AIR IS NOTED ON\r\nWATER VAPOR PICTURES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE... WHICH ALSO MAY\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE DESSICATED SATELLITE APPEARANCE. A FURTHER ANALYSIS\r\nOF THE 0845 UTC QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGESTS THAT WINDS OF 40-45 KT WERE\r\nPRESENT AT THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BUMPED UP\r\nTO 40 KT TO MATCH THIS ESTIMATE ALONG WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE\r\nSTRUCTURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT HYBRID\r\nNATURE OF ISAAC. FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... THE COLD WAKES OF GORDON\r\nAND HELENE COULD HINDER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN UPPER LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nISAAC... ALONG WITH NEARBY DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS...\r\nSHOULD ALSO HELP TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER BY LATE\r\nTOMORROW... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER AS\r\nISSAC BECOMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPPER RIDGING TO THE\r\nNORTH. THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO DIAGNOSES AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE-LEVEL\r\nHUMIDITY BEYOND 36 HOURS AND THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER\r\nSLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS THAT WERE MOSTLY UNTOUCHED BY OTHER TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SOMEWHAT FOR THE FIRST\r\n24 HOURS... BUT THEN BLENDED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE\r\nLATER-TERM.  THIS SOLUTION IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND\r\nOF THE SHIPS-GFDL-FSSE (FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE) GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nDUE TO THE CYCLONE'S INTERACTION WITH AN UPPER LOW... THE MOTION OF\r\nISAAC HAS SHIFTED EVEN FARTHER TO THE RIGHT... AND IS NOW 330/7. AS\r\nTHE UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD... THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE UPPER\r\nLOW SHOULD HELP TO PULL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE BACK TO THE LEFT.\r\nTHEREAFTER... MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD\r\nCAUSE A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS. A RATHER\r\nLARGE TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEYOND THAT\r\nTIME... WHICH SHOULD STEER ISAAC NORTHWARD THEN ACCELERATE IT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nRIGHT EARLY ON TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS BUT IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THE OFFICAL FORECAST\r\nREMAINS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 28.9N  54.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 29.7N  55.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 30.5N  57.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 31.4N  58.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 32.8N  59.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 36.5N  60.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 42.0N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 47.0N  47.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-09-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2006\r\n\r\nTHE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN OF ISAAC HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS\r\nEVENING.  A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS MADE IT A LITTLE \r\nMORE DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE THE CENTER LOCATION WITH INFRARED\r\nIMAGERY.  SINCE THE CLOUD TOPS ARE NOT VERY COLD AND THE CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND IS RATHER SMALL...DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6-12 HOURS.  THIS IS A CASE IN WHICH THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE\r\nMAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY...SINCE THE CONVECTION IS NOT\r\nVERY DEEP AND THE CYCLONE HAS SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  A\r\nSHIP WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 0000 UTC REPORTED 33 KT\r\nWINDS...AND STRONGER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE CENTER. \r\nMAKING THAT ASSUMPTION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.  THE\r\nWIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIP\r\nREPORT.\r\n\r\nISAAC HAS BEEN MOVING ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nDURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS... IN\r\nBETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A\r\nBUILDING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  IN ABOUT 2 DAYS...A\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD\r\nTURN ISAAC NORTHWARD ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT\r\nSPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DURING RECURVATURE.  THE GFS AND NOGAPS\r\nREMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET IS TO\r\nTHE EAST.  GIVEN THIS LARGE SPREAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK\r\nWILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAPPENS TO BE VERY\r\nNEAR THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nISAAC CONTINUES TO BE AFFECTED BY MODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR. \r\nHOWEVER...THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE PROBLEMATIC SINCE ISAAC IS\r\nPREDICTED TO MOVE OVER WATERS THAT HAVE BEEN COOLED BY\r\nHURRICANES GORDON AND HELENE...WHICH MAY HINDER STRENGTHENING. \r\nTHEREAFTER...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE AN\r\nADDITIONAL INHIBITING FACTOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY\r\nMODEST STRENGTHENING AND IS IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MAKES ISAAC A\r\nHURRICANE IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS MODEL SOMETIMES\r\nOVERESTIMATES THE INTENSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES IN A SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 29.2N  55.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 30.0N  56.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 30.9N  57.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 31.9N  58.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 33.5N  59.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 38.0N  59.5W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 44.0N  53.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 49.0N  46.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-09-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 AM AST FRI SEP 29 2006\r\n \r\nISAAC IS SENDING MIXED STRUCTURAL SIGNALS THIS MORNING.  THE\r\nCONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER...\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS DECREASING.  ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...THAT CONVECTION IS VERY WEAK...WITH ONLY A FEW TOPS COLDER\r\n-50C.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING INTERACTION WITH A NEARBY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS HAD AN IMPACT...AND THAT ISAAC MAY HAVE SOME\r\nSUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\n35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS REMAIN\r\nLESS THAN THAT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT...AND THIS\r\nCOULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.\r\n\r\nISAAC HAS TURNED TOWARD THE LEFT OVER THE PAST 6-12 HR.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/4...AND OVER THE PAST 3-6 HR THE\r\nCYCLONE SEEMS TO BE MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTH OF ISAAC IN\r\nRESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LEFT TURN.  THE\r\nU. S. TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED\r\nSURFACE LOW FORMING OFF THE U. S. EAST COAST IN 48-72 HR.  THIS\r\nDEVELOPMENT SHOULD TURN ISAAC NORTHWARD.  AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS\r\nSOME MODEL DIVERGENCE.  THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND CANADIAN MOVE\r\nISAAC NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE NEW LOW...WHILE THE GFS AND\r\nECMWF MERGE ISSAC WITH THE NEW LOW AND BRING THE CENTER NEAR\r\nEASTERN NOVA SCOTIA IN ABOUT 96 HR.  FOR NOW...THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK WILL RETAIN THE NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AFTER 72 HR SEEN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND AN ADDITIONAL SHIFT TO THE LEFT MAY BE\r\nNECESSARY LATER TODAY IF THE CURRENT WESTWARD TURN CONTINUES.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC.  ISSAC SHOULD BE IN\r\nA LIGHT TO MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR...AND\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM OVER SOMEWHAT WARMER SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURES THAN SEEN EARLIER.  NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE\r\nTHE CURRENT WEAK CONVECTION AND DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nNEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE GFDL RESPONDS TO THESE FACTORS\r\nBY FORECAST ISAAC TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HR.  THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE FORECASTS IT TO 48 KT IN 48 HR AND 61 KT IN 84\r\nHR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 44 KT IN 48 HR AND 55 KT IN 96\r\nHR.  GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS...THE NEW INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING\r\nFOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT...\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD STOP\r\nINTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO EVENTUAL EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 29.2N  55.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 29.7N  56.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 30.5N  57.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 31.5N  59.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 33.2N  60.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 39.5N  60.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 46.5N  51.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 49.0N  40.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-09-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ISAAC IS MAINTAINING ITS SMALL CORE\r\nWITH MODERATE CONVECTION IN BANDS AROUND THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 0958 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF\r\nISAAC REMAIN AROUND 40 KT. QUIKSCAT ALSO INDICATES THE STORM HAS\r\nDECREASED SOMEWHAT IN SIZE AND THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD.\r\nTHERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY THIS\r\nMORNING. LATER TODAY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nWARMER WATER AND EXPERIENCING ONLY MODEST VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\nTHESE FACTORS... PLUS INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT BASED ON THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL... SHOULD HELP INITIATE A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND. BY 36\r\nTO 48 HOURS... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND LIMIT\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS\r\nBEFORE. HOWEVER... IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSIFY\r\nTHE CYCLONE MORE THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AFTER RECURVATURE. THIS\r\nSCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR FORECAST AND SHARPLY\r\nDECREASING SSTS.\r\n \r\nISAAC HAS CONTINUED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD AND IS NOW MOVING 290/5.\r\nTHE BIGGEST QUESTION IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS HOW LONG DOES THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUE BEFORE A TURN BACK TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST BEGINS. THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS MODELS SUGGEST RIDGING WILL\r\nHOLD NORTH OF THE STORM FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS BEFORE STARTING A MORE\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION. THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE BY SUGGESTING A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IN AS LITTLE\r\nAS 24 HOURS. IN GENERAL... GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION... A TOUCH TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL STAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE\r\nTO SOME SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THE COMPUTER MODELS THAT TAKE\r\nTHE STORM FARTHEST TO THE WEST ALSO MAKE ISAAC EXTRATROPICAL SOONER\r\nAS IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP TROUGH IN THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN\r\nADDITION THESE WESTWARD MODELS AND THE GFS ALSO ABSORB ISAAC INTO A\r\nLARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. FOR NOW ISSAC IS FORECAST\r\nTO REMAIN SEPARATE FROM THE OTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW. HOWEVER IF THE\r\nWESTWARD TREND CONTINUES... THEN THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC COULD BECOME\r\nINDISTINCT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE LOW BY 96 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 29.4N  56.2W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 29.9N  57.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 30.7N  58.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 31.9N  59.6W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 33.8N  60.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 41.6N  58.4W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 47.0N  49.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 49.0N  37.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-09-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AND ATTEMPTING TO FORM A RING\r\nAROUND THE CENTER OF ISAAC. IN ADDITION THE OUTFLOW HAS BEEN\r\nEXPANDING AND BECOMING MORE SYMMETRIC. THESE ARE ALL SIGNS OF AN\r\nINTENSIFYING SYSTEM. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED MARKEDLY...\r\nAND SINCE AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUPPORTED WINDS OF 40-45 KT\r\nTWELVE HOURS AGO... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. ISAAC\r\nIS LEAVING THE COOLER WATERS PREVIOUSLY UPWELLED BY GORDON AND\r\nHELENE AND MOVING INTO WARMER SSTS. IN ADDITION... THE DRY AIR IN\r\nTHE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS NEAR THE SYSTEM'S CORE HAS BEEN REDUCED\r\nAND THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES. THESE\r\nFACTORS SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THUS\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS\r\nISAAC BECOMING A HURRICANE. THE FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/FSSE. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER AND IS ABOUT\r\n295/6. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD BE THE\r\nPRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT ONE OR TWO DAYS... SENDING\r\nTHE STORM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING. THEREAFTER\r\nISSAC WILL REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND LIKELY\r\nACCELERATE TO THE NORTH IN FRONT OF A MASSIVE TROUGH FORECAST TO\r\nPROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE UKMET HAS\r\nSHIFTED ITS TRACK WESTWARD FROM EARLIER BUT IS STILL ON THE EASTERN\r\nSIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. OTHER MODELS ARE MOSTLY UNCHANGED OR\r\nSLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED WESTWARD BUT STILL LIES JUST EAST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ISAAC WILL BECOME RAPIDLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS FOLLOWED BY ABSORPTION INTO A\r\nLARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 29.7N  56.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 30.1N  57.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 31.1N  59.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 32.5N  60.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 34.7N  61.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 43.5N  57.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 50.0N  48.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-09-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SHAPE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nAND MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. I DID NOT MAKE ISAAC A\r\nHURRICANE BECAUSE THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE CENTER IS NOT VERY\r\nSTRONG AT THE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY...BUT I WAS VERY TEMPTED. A\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE SHOWED A FEW VECTORS OF 60 KNOTS\r\nJUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...I AM NOT SURE IF THESE\r\nVECTOR ARE REPRESENTATIVE OR NOT OF THE INTENSITY OF ISAAC...SINCE\r\nTHERE IS ALWAYS A LOT OF GOOD DEBATE ABOUT THE SUBJECT AMONG THE\r\nQUIKSCAT EXPERTS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE ONLY 5 KNOTS ABOVE THE\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...AND I AM NOT GOING TO ARGUE OVER 5\r\nKNOTS. SO LET'S USE THE VECTORS AND INCREASE THE WINDS TO 60 KNOTS.\r\nUNANIMOUSLY...ALL INTENSITY MODELS BRING ISAAC TO HURRICANE STATUS\r\nBEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AND THE OCEAN COOLS...AND SO DOES THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST. ISSAC SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 DAYS AND\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 5 DAYS OR EARLIER.    \r\n\r\nISAAC IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS BUT IS\r\nALREADY REACHING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND\r\nTHE SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER ISAAC NORTHWARD AND PASS WELL EAST OF\r\nBERMUDA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. IT SHOULD THEN TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO\r\nBE AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WHILE APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE WHICH IN FACT HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT A LITTLE BIT...AND\r\nTHE MAIN ENVELOPE IS OVER EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND AND\r\nADJACENT WATERS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 30.1N  57.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 30.5N  58.4W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 31.5N  59.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 33.5N  61.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 36.5N  61.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 46.0N  55.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 51.0N  45.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-09-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 AM AST SAT SEP 30 2006\r\n \r\nISAAC LOOKS MUCH MORE TROPICAL THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO...WITH\r\nCONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -60C NOT FAR NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AND\r\nTHE FIRST SIGNS OF A 30-35 NM WIDE EYE.  THE CONVECTION IS NOT YET\r\nWRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER ENOUGH FOR THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH...SO ISAAC REMAINS A 60 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE STORM CURRENTLY HAS FAIR TO\r\nGOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/6.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE ADJACENT\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.  A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 36N56W WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING NORTHWARD TO NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THE U. S. TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS AN ASSOCIATED\r\nSURFACE LOW FORMS.  THIS SHOULD TURN ISAAC NORTHWARD BY 36 HR AND\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY 72 HR IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE\r\nFIRST 36 HR...THEN SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  IT IS IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS MODELS.  DEPENDING ON HOW ISAAC\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE LOW...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD MOVE MORE\r\nNORTHWARD AFTER 48 HR THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ISAAC TO REMAIN IN A LIGHT TO\r\nMODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ABOUT 36 HR.  THE SHIPS\r\nMODELS FORECAST A 65 KT INTENSITY IN 36 HR...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nA 70 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR...AND THE GFDL A 90 KT INTENSITY IN 48\r\nHR.  BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD A\r\nLITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AFTER 36-48 HR...INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH DEEP-LAYER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO\r\nWEAKENING AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  ONE DISAGREEMENT IN THE\r\nMODELS IS HOW LONG ISAAC WILL MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY.  THE GFS\r\nABSORBS THE STORM INTO THE BAROCLINIC LOW IN ABOUT 48 HR...WHILE\r\nTHE OTHER MODELS HOLD ON TO IT FOR ABOUT 72 HR.  BASED ON THIS...\r\nTHE TIME OF BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LOW WILL BE MOVED UP A DAY FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 30.3N  58.0W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 30.9N  59.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 32.3N  60.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 34.7N  61.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 39.0N  60.2W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 47.5N  54.5W    50 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-09-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ISAAC FORMED A RAGGED EYE SHORTLY\r\nAFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.   A HIGH RESOLUTION QUIKSCAT PASS NEAR\r\n1000 UTC SHOWED ONE BELIEVABLE WIND SPEED OF 63 KT.  HOWEVER THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT IN ORGANIZATION SINCE\r\nTHAT TIME.  AFTER BECOMING OBSCURED A FEW HOURS AGO... THE EYE HAS\r\nBECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  IN ADDITION...\r\nA SATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS AT T4.0... 65 KT... WHILE\r\nCIMSS/CIRA AMSU ESTIMATES ARE BOTH ANALYZING ISAAC WITH 64 KT\r\nWINDS. THEREFORE ISAAC IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT\r\nWINDS... THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING AS ISAAC REMAINS IN A\r\nRELATIVELY LIGHT SHEAR AREA AND OVER SUFFICIENTLY WARM WATER\r\nTEMPERATURES. HOWEVER... SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TOMORROW\r\nDUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND LIMIT ANY FURTHER\r\nINTENSIFICATION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE... GFDL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ISAAC IS EXPECTED\r\nTO REMAIN A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL LOW BEFORE ITS EVENTUAL ABSORPTION\r\nBY A LARGER LOW.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/6. A GRADUAL RIGHTWARD TURN\r\nSHOULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ISAAC ROUNDS THE WESTERN\r\nPORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THEREAFTER THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE\r\nACCELERATING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP MIDDLE-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE. ISAAC SHOULD ENCOUNTER A MORE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT\r\nIN 36-48 HOURS... WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE IT TO TRANSITION INTO\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 3 DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING\r\nTHE REMNANTS OF ISAAC TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\nNEAR THE 96 HOUR TIME FRAME. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 30.9N  58.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 31.6N  59.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 33.4N  60.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 36.8N  60.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 41.5N  59.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 50.0N  50.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-09-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE EYEWALL OF ISSAC THIS\r\nAFTERNOON. IN ADDITION THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER-DEFINED\r\nWITH AN EXPANDING OUTFLOW PATTERN IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM SAB/AFWA ARE INCREASING...\r\nAND THE LOCAL 3 HOUR OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE NEAR T4.2... EQUATING\r\nTO 70 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 70 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ABOVE ESTIMATES. ISAAC STILL HAS A\r\nLITTLE MORE TIME TO INTENSIFY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UPPER TROUGH IMPACTS THE HURRICANE. STEADY WEAKENING\r\nSHOULD BEGIN BY LATE TOMORROW AS THE SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AND\r\nWATERS COOL BELOW 26C. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO ICON... THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS OF\r\nGFDL AND SHIPS. GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STRENGTHENING AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE BUT THIS MAY BE OVERDONE DUE TO VERY STRONG SHEAR\r\nFORECAST TO OCCUR BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THESE GLOBAL MODELS ALSO\r\nEXPECT ISAAC TO BE A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL LOW UNTIL IT IS\r\nEVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY A LARGER MIDDLE-LATITUDE CYCLONE.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS SPED UP AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 310/9... THOUGH A\r\nSHORTER-TERM MOTION IS FASTER. THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE SAME\r\nAS BEFORE. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BETWEEN A RIDGE TO THE EAST\r\nOVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. AT THIS POINT THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW CLOSE WILL\r\nEXTRATROPICAL ISAAC GET TO NEWFOUNDLAND. THE ECMWF...GFS AND GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN MODELS WHIP EXTRATROPICAL ISAAC AROUND A LARGER\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW AND ARE... CONSEQUENTLY... FARTHER TO THE LEFT\r\nTHAN THE OTHER MODELS... WHICH KEEP ISAAC MORE SEPARATE FROM THE\r\nLOW. GLOBAL MODELS DO AGREE THAT ITS REMNANTS WILL FORM A POWERFUL\r\nSTORM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND MIGHT BE SIMILAR TO THE STRENGTH\r\nOF EXTRATROPICAL FLORENCE A FEW WEEKS AGO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK WITH THE MODELS NOW HONED IN ON\r\nRECURVATURE ALONG ABOUT 61W... AND SHOWS SOME THREAT TO\r\nNEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 2-3 DAYS AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 31.6N  59.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 32.6N  60.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 35.0N  60.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 39.0N  60.0W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 44.0N  56.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 52.0N  46.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-10-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST GOES IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE OF ISAAC HAS INTERMITTENTLY\r\nAPPEARING AND DISAPPEARING THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. GIVEN A LACK OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BETWEEN 65 AND 77 KT. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN OFFSETTING FACTORS IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM...AND A COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE\r\nTROUGH THEREAFTER. ISAAC HAS ABOUT 12-24 HOURS OVER WATERS OF AT\r\nLEAST 26C. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISAAC IS\r\nEXPERIENCING INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. BEYOND 24 HOURS...THE\r\nHURRICANE WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nMOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nDISAGREE ON WHETHER ISAAC WILL BE ABLE TO UTILIZE THE AVAILABLE\r\nBAROCLINIC ENERGY TO STRENGTHEN DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...\r\nOR INSTEAD BE ABSORBED BY A MORE DOMINANT EXTRATROPICAL LOW WHICH\r\nCOULD FORM TO ITS WEST. SHOULD ISAAC MERGE WITH A SECOND LOW...IT\r\nWOULD PROBABLY PRODUCE A BROADER AND WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.\r\nCONVERSELY...IF ISAAC REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYSTEM...IT COULD\r\nRE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...IN A SIMILAR MANNER TO\r\nHELENE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE\r\nBETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS BY SHOWING SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE\r\nFIRST 48 HOURS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING IN THE SHORT-TERM AND LITTLE CHANGE DURING EXTRATROPICAL\r\nTRANSITION. \r\n \r\nISAAC IS MOVING JUST A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR EAST...OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 330/09.  \r\nGLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL NORTHWARD\r\nTURN THROUGH 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nAS THE CYCLONE GETS CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE ECMWF...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nARE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MODEL SUITE AND SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVING OVER OR NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE\r\nMUCH FARTHER EAST. REMAINING IN BETWEEN THOSE EXTREMES AND CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS...AND IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THEREAFTER.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 32.5N  59.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 34.0N  60.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 37.2N  60.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 42.0N  57.9W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 46.8N  53.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 53.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 56.0N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-10-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006\r\n \r\nMETEOSAT IMAGERY DURING THE GOES ECLIPSE SHOWED THAT THE RAGGED EYE\r\nOF ISAAC CONTINUED TO BE PRESENT OVERNIGHT.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE BOTH T4.5...77 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH EARLIER AMSU INTENSITY VALUES AS WELL.  A\r\nWELL-DEFINED EYE WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT 0013 UTC IN SSMIS MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 75 KT.\r\n\r\nCURRENT MOTION OF ISAAC IS 335/8...A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF SIX HOURS\r\nEARLIER.  THE HURRICANE IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK\r\nOF A RATHER SMALL DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A VERY LARGE\r\nTROUGH ALONG THE UNITED STATES ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  ISAAC IS LIKELY\r\nTO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND WILL BE\r\nACCELERATING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTWESTERLIES.  ALL\r\nRELIABLE GUIDANCE ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH THIS\r\nRECURVING SCENARIO.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS.  AT 72 HOURS\r\nTHE TRACK IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THE THE LAST FORECAST.\r\n\r\nISAAC LIKELY IS NEAR PEAK INTENSITY...AS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nSHOULD SOON BE IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.  ADDITIONALLY...IT SHOULD\r\nENCOUNTER VERY COLD SSTS BEGINNING IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH\r\nOF THE GULF STREAM.  ALL GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A QUICK\r\nTRANSFORMATION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE MAY OCCUR IN ABOUT 24-36\r\nHOURS AS ISAAC INTERACTS WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.  ONLY THE\r\nGFDL HURRICANE MODEL RETAINS ISAAC AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR MORE\r\nTHAN 36 HOURS.  ALSO THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT AS\r\nTO THE INTENSITY OF THE EXTRATROPICALLY-TRANSITIONED ISAAC AT DAYS\r\n4 AND 5.  AFTER ABOUT THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nDISTINGUISH ISAAC'S VORTEX FROM A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...THEN SOMEWHAT QUICKER WEAKENING AFTERWARD AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS PREDICTION IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION TIMING...THE\r\nCANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE\r\nAVALON PENINSULA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 33.1N  60.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 35.5N  60.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 39.8N  58.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 44.6N  55.4W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 48.5N  50.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 52.5N  42.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-10-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006\r\n \r\nTHE EYE FEATURE OF ISAAC HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DEFINED OVER THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO\r\nHAVE SOME EFFECT ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 65 AND 75 KT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nSUPPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 70 KT...WHICH IS THE ESTIMATED\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT\r\nENCOUNTERS INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH COOLER SSTS DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS. FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW THAT ISAAC WILL TRANISITION INTO A EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\nNOT MORE THAN 24-36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MOTION IS 355/11. IT APPEARS THAT ISAAC IS BEGINNING TO\r\nACCELERATE AND TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH\r\nTHAT IS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE OVER OR VERY NEAR\r\nSOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS REMAIN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE GFDL IS\r\nTO THE EAST AND KEEPS ISAAC OFFSHORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS\r\nTOWARDS THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTION AND IS A LITTLE WEST OF THE GUNA\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER PASSING NEWFOUNDLAND...THE MODELS DIVERGE\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY ON WHICH LOW BECOMES DOMINANT...THE EXTRATROPICAL\r\nREMNANT OF ISAAC OR THE BAROCLINIC LOW MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST\r\nUNITED STATES COAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE SMALLER ISAAC WILL\r\nBECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW AND THE 72 HOUR\r\nFORECAST REFLECTS THIS SCENARIO. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 34.4N  60.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 37.2N  59.8W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 42.0N  57.2W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 47.0N  53.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 50.5N  48.7W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-10-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006\r\n \r\nISAAC REMAINS A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED HURRICANE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A BANDING TYPE EYE AND A\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE WITH TOPS AS\r\nCOLD AS -70C.  A BLEND OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY AND DATA\r\nT-NUMBERS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT.  INCREASING SHEAR\r\nAND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF ISAAC ARE\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...ISSAC IS FORECAST TO BECOME A STRONG\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS A BAROCLINIC SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PROVIDE\r\nADDITIONAL ENERGY AFTER ISAAC LOSES ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nISAAC HAS TURNED NORTHWARD AND IS ACCELERATING.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS 005/18 KT.  ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT IS\r\nEXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nHAS SHIFTED CONSIDERABLY WESTWARD AND ALL THE MODELS NOW SHOW\r\nLANDFALL IN NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE UKMET AND GFS REMAIN ON THE WEST\r\nSIDE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDL ARE TO THE\r\nEAST...AND FORECAST A TRACK NEAR CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nALONG THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS.  AS WAS THE CASE THIS MORNING...\r\nAFTER THE PASSAGE OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE\r\nON WHICH LOW BECOMES DOMINANT...THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT OF ISAAC\r\nOR THE BAROCLINIC LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES\r\nCOAST.  THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THE SMALLER ISAAC WILL BECOME\r\nABSORBED BY THE LARGE BAROCLINIC LOW AND THE 72 HOUR FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHETHER ISAAC IS A TROPICAL OR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nWHEN PASSING NEAR OR OVER NEWFOUNDLAND...IT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE\r\nSUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THAT AREA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 36.3N  60.0W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 39.7N  59.1W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 45.1N  56.2W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 49.5N  52.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 52.5N  47.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-10-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 01 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ISAAC IS GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKENING. THE EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT AND THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC ABOUT THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nLATEST DVORAK DATA T AND CI NUMBERS. THE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nREASONING REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. ISAAC WILL SOON BE\r\nENCOUNTERING A SHARP GRADIENT IN SST AS IT CROSSES THE NORTH WALL\r\nOF THE GULF STREAM IN 6-12 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nBE ENCOUNTERING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nFACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AND A LOSS OF TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RESTRENGTHENING OF ISAAC\r\nAS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS UNLIKELY...SINCE MUCH OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE BAROCLINIC ENERGY WILL BE UTILIZED BY ANOTHER LOW\r\nPRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY FORMING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. GIVEN\r\nISAAC'S RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES ISAAC\r\nWILL BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER BAROCLINIC LOW WITHIN 2-3 DAYS.\r\nREGARDLESS OF THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF ISAAC...IT IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAFFECT NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\n \r\nISAAC IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE OF 020/23 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER OR VERY\r\nNEAR NEWFOUNDLAND TOMORROW. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT\r\nON THIS SCENARIO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY FROM NEWFOUNDLAND. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 38.6N  58.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 42.5N  57.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 47.8N  53.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 51.5N  49.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 53.3N  45.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z...ABSORBED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Isaac","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-10-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006\r\n \r\nHURRICANE ISAAC IS PERSISTENTLY MAINTAINING A COHERENT CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST WITH QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS FOR A HIGH LATITUDE CYCLONE.  \r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0002Z AND 0135Z SHOWED THAT ISAAC'S LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER WAS DISPLACED ABOUT 30 NMI SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE\r\nDECREASED TO T4.0 AND T3.5 RESPECTIVELY.  HOWEVER...THE INCREASED\r\nFORWARD SPEED OF ISAAC AS WELL AS THE HIGH ENVIRONMENTAL SURFACE\r\nPRESSURES AS MEASURED BY BUOYS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nCYCLONE SUGGEST THAT HURRICANE FORCE INTENSITY IS STILL\r\nPOSSIBLE...AT LEAST TEMPORARILY.  ISAAC SHOULD BE UNDERGOING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HR AS IT MOVES INTO AN\r\nINCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG\r\nWILL THE CYCLONE MAINTAIN A SEPARATE IDENTITY.  THE GFS AND UKMET\r\nMODELS SUGGEST ABSORPTION WITHIN A DAY INTO THE DEVELOPING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF ISAAC.  NOGAPS...IN\r\nCONTRAST...MAINTAINS ISAAC AS THE DOMINANT LOW FOR THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THE ECMWF SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE WITH ABSORPTION OF ISAAC IN\r\nABOUT TWO DAYS AND THIS SCENARIO IS FOLLOWED IN THIS FORECAST WITH\r\nISAAC'S WINDS GRADUALLY WEAKENING BEFORE THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED.\r\n\r\nISAAC IS ACCELERATING OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 26\r\nKT...THOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION AND TRANSLATIONAL VELOCITY HAVE A\r\nMODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY.  THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHEAST\r\nAND AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH TO ITS WEST.  ISAAC SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO ACCELERATE IN THE SAME DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT DAY\r\nBEFORE SLOWING DOWN DURING THE ABSORPTION PROCESS.  THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE RELIABLE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS\r\nSIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 40.5N  58.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 45.0N  55.1W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 49.7N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 52.1N  46.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-10-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2006\r\n \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SSTS HAVE TAKEN THEIR TOLL ON ISAAC\r\nTHIS MORNING.  THE CENTER OF ISAAC IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN\r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY AND BUOYS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES HAVE NOT BEEN\r\nMUCH HELP THUS FAR.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE SET AT 50 KT AND  \r\nTHIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.\r\n\r\nISAAC IS CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/36.  ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SLOWS\r\nISAAC CONSIDERABLY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO THE\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE ADJACENT EXTRATROPICAL LOW.  IN DEFERENCE TO\r\nTHE CURRENT ACCELERATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND INDICATES THAT ISAAC WILL BE PASSING NEAR OF OVER\r\nSOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND LATER TODAY.  ISAAC IS QUICKLY LOSING\r\nTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...AND ECMWF ALL AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO AND SO DOES THE \r\nNHC FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 44.3N  55.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 49.0N  51.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 52.0N  47.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Isaac","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-10-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL092006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 02 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF ISSAC HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE TODAY\r\nAS THE CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS SEEN IN INFRARED IMAGERY.  AROUND 1600 UTC... THE CENTER\r\nMOVED BY CANADIAN BUOY 44138...WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45\r\nKT WITH A PEAK GUST TO 56 KT.  ISAAC'S CENTER RECENTLY PASSED JUST\r\nOFFSHORE CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 52 KT WERE\r\nREPORTED. \r\n\r\nTHE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS 035/35.  ISAAC IS BECOMING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL AND IS FORECAST TO SOON MERGE WITH THE LARGER\r\nBAROCLINIC SYSTEM TO ITS WEST.  THE UKMET...GFS...AND ECMWF \r\nINDICATE THAT THE SMALL ISAAC WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE \r\nSYSTEM ALONG AN EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN 12-24 HOURS. \r\nIN DEFERENCE TO THE INITIAL MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS \r\nFASTER THAN THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. \r\n\r\nSINCE IT IS QUICKLY LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAAC. \r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 47.1N  52.2W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 51.5N  48.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 53.5N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-05-27 10:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n300 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS\r\nIS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE\r\nWEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT\r\nANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE\r\nSYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.    \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE AND IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL\r\nAND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT COULD BRING\r\nGUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS\r\nALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1000Z 14.5N 101.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"One-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-05-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION ONE-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE\r\nPAST 6 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE\r\nEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY\r\nWEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OS 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY. AT 12Z...SHIP H9UY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NMI\r\nSOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WESTERLY WINDS OF 21 KT AND A\r\nPRESSURE OF 1006.0 MB.\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING OR REFORMING\r\nSLOWLY NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 4 KT CLOSER TO THE\r\nSTRONG CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND ONLY A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST\r\nIS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\nAFTER THAT...WEAK RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nSYSTEM ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO\r\nNUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS...\r\nLIKE NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF...MOVE THE STORM INTO MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO\r\nIN 48-72 HOURS BEFORE TURNING IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL AND A BLEND OF\r\nTHE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE CURRENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY\r\nWEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME\r\nGRADUAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR A 30- AND 35-KT TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BY 96 HOURS...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE\r\nCENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT\r\nTHIS TIME... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/1500Z 15.1N 101.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0000Z 16.4N 100.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1200Z 16.7N 101.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1200Z 16.8N 101.9W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1200Z 16.8N 102.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1200Z 16.8N 103.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-05-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006\r\n \r\nBANDING FEATURES HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE A\r\nCONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB USING A SHEAR PATTERN.\r\nTHUS...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED TROPICAL STORM ALETTA. AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN NOTED IN BOTH\r\nRADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT MID-LEVEL SHEAR\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OTHERWISE IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS\r\nRESULTED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER BECOMING EXPOSED JUST\r\nWEST OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.\r\n \r\nTHE BROAD CENTER OF ALETTA HAS REFORMED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...\r\nWHICH MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 040/03 KT SOMEWHAT\r\nUNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER... THAT ALETTA HAS MOVED NORTH OF\r\nTHE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS NOW...SO A GENERAL SLOW NORTHEASTWARD\r\nMOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER\r\nTHAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED. THE\r\nLONE EXCEPTION IS THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT\r\nALETTA WILL CROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WHILE THE\r\nMID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY END UP DOING THAT...IT IS\r\nHIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD MAKE IT OVER\r\nTHE RATHER FORMIDABLE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFDL MODEL... CALLS FOR\r\nALETTA TO MOVE NEAR AND POSSIBLY JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL\r\nCOAST OF MEXICO BY 48 HOURS...AND THEN TURN WESTWARD BACK OVER WATER\r\nAS MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TWO\r\nTRACKS...AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS MODEL.\r\n \r\nWHILE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nMID-LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nAGREE THAT BY 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO\r\nLESS THAN 10 KT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SLOW STRENGTHENING\r\nTO OCCUR UP UNTIL ALETTA NEARS LAND IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEREAFTER WHEN ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nUNDERNEATH THE LARGE-SCALE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS. \r\n \r\nDUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT\r\n...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM\r\nPUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO TECPAN DE GALEANA MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      27/2100Z 15.6N 100.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 100.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N  99.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/0600Z 16.7N 100.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     29/1800Z 16.9N 100.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 101.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     31/1800Z 16.8N 102.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     01/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-05-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006\r\n\r\nTHE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON IS LOOKING LIKE A TOUGH ONE TO\r\nFORECAST.  LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER MOVING WESTWARD...AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nSSM/I AND AMSR-E IMAGES ALSO SHOWED A LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.  UNLESS A NEW CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER TO\r\nTHE EAST... ALETTA MAY NOT LAST VERY LONG.  GIVEN THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAS REFORMED NEAR THE DEEP CONVECTION AT LEAST TWICE ALREADY IN THIS\r\nSYSTEM...IT MIGHT NOT BE UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT YET ANOTHER\r\nREFORMATION.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45\r\nKT.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...THE\r\nINITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  IN SPITE OF\r\nTHE CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED STATE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER- TROPOSPHERIC\r\nENVIRONMENT OF WEAKER SHEAR AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE...I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION...AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  THIS IS ALSO IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...\r\nAND STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK FOR THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS.  THERE ARE NOW NO DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT TAKE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WESTWARD.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS MODELS FORECAST ALETTA TO\r\nMOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFDL'S VORTEX TRACKER...WHICH IS LISTED ON THE\r\nSTANDARD OUTPUT MESSAGE...LOSES TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND DOES NOT\r\nINDICATE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...INSPECTION OF THE GFDL MODEL OUTPUT\r\nFIELDS OF SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CLEARLY SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE\r\nCOAST.  SINCE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO CREDIBLE GUIDANCE TO FORECAST A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM\r\nSTATIONARY FROM DAYS 3-5.  OBVIOUSLY...ALETTA MAY HAVE MOVED INLAND\r\nAND DISSIPATED BY THEN.  \r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0300Z 15.7N 101.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 100.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.3N 100.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1200Z 16.6N 100.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0000Z 16.9N 100.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0000Z 17.0N 101.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-05-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006\r\n \r\nA BURST OF COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...AND HAS BEEN PROPAGATING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. THE INITIAL\r\nPOSITION WAS PLACED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE LAST ADVISORY POSITION\r\nBASED ON A 28/0045Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 40 KT.\r\n\r\nIT IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS\r\nMIGRATING SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE CONVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAS JUST SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AS AN EASTWARD MOVING\r\nMID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING THE\r\nMID-LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. DUE TO THIS\r\nUNCERTAINTY...HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION WILL REMAIN STATIONARY.\r\nNONE OF THE NHC MODELS ARE INDICATING LANDFALL ANY LONGER. WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE BAM MODELS...THE REST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nKEEPS THE CENTER WELL OFFSHORE THE MEXICAN COAST AND EITHER KEEP IT\r\nSTATIONARY OR DRIFT IT SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THEN\r\nTAKE IT WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWARD AFTER THAT AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING\r\nBUILDS IN TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY SLOWER. IF THE SLOW\r\nNORTHWARD MOTION INDICATED IN THIS ADVISORY DOES NOT DEVELOP LATER\r\nTODAY...THEN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCHES FOR THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST WILL NEED TO BE DISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nTHE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS\r\nFORECAST TO PASS NORTHEAST OF ALETTA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND MORE TO THE NORTH AND\r\nNORTHEAST...RELAXING THE SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN HINDERING DEVELOPMENT.\r\nTHE SHIPS MODEL DECREASES THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY\r\n48 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO\r\nOCCUR DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING ALETTA.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 15.4N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 15.6N 100.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 15.9N 100.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 16.2N 100.8W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N 100.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 16.3N 101.2W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 16.2N 101.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N 102.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-05-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006\r\n \r\nAN AQUA MICROWAVE PASS AT 0820Z AND A TRMM PASS AT 1111Z INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CENTER OF ALETTA DRIFTED WESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nOVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A NEW BURST HAS\r\nDEVELOPED JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 12Z WERE 45 AND 35\r\nKT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT\r\nFOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH\r\nPRESSURE OVER MEXICO IS CURRENTLY IMPEDING ALETTA'S PROGRESS TOWARD\r\nTHE COAST...BUT SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE NOGAPS AND\r\nECMWF...SUGGEST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH\r\nOFF THE BAJA PENINSULA MOVES EASTWARD.  THIS COULD ALLOW ALETTA TO\r\nMOVE CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ALTHOUGH THE GFDL\r\nTRACKER KEEPS ALETTA OFFSHORE...THE MODEL'S 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER\r\nCLEARLY MOVES INLAND EAST OF ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 30 HOURS.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTIES...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS AT\r\nTHIS TIME.  AFTER 24-48 HOURS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nRESTRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nALETTA IS STILL EXPERIENCING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT\r\nHAS BEEN LIMITING DEVELOPMENT.  SHOULD ALETTA REMAIN OFFSHORE AS\r\nFORECAST...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC\r\nUPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH LOWER SHEAR SHOULD EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nTWO.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE.  AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION HOWEVER...DRY AIR\r\nJUST TO THE WEST OF ALETTA WOULD BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 15.5N 101.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 15.6N 101.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 16.2N 101.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 16.5N 101.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 16.5N 102.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 16.5N 103.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-05-28 21:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006\r\n \r\nTHE SURFACE CENTER OF ALETTA IS OBSCURED AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY\r\nRECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT LOCATION AND\r\nMOTION ARE THEREFORE SUBJECT TO SOME SPECULATION.  WHAT LOW CLOUD\r\nLINES THAT ARE VISIBLE ARE ELONGATED AND SUGGESTIVE OF A NORTHEAST/\r\nSOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS...RATHER THAN A WELL-DEFINED\r\nCIRCULATION.  NEVERTHELESS...THERE HAS BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION OVER THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE DATA T NUMBERS SUGGEST THIS ESTIMATE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH.\r\nOUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT LESS SO\r\nTHAN EARLIER TODAY.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT.  THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS SHOW\r\nA LITTLE MORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE NOGAPS\r\nNO LONGER BRINGS ALETTA TO THE COASTLINE.  THE GFDL...HOWEVER...\r\nSTILL TAKES ALETTA INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND\r\nCLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR\r\nCONTINUITY AND THE GFDL.  ALL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL TAKES ALETTA\r\nWESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.\r\n \r\nTHERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS ABATING\r\nSOMEWHAT...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR\r\nCONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...AND BY 72 HOURS THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY SHEAR MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 15.8N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.1N 100.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.4N 100.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.6N 101.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.7N 102.0W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 16.5N 106.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-05-29 03:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006\r\n\r\nAS WAS THE CASE EARLIER TODAY...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nVERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE USING GEOSYNCHRONOUS SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE\r\nCURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A SLOW NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION AND A FAIR CENTER FIX OFF OF A RECENT...0051 UTC... SSM/I\r\nIMAGE.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/2.  DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  EVEN THE GFDL HAS BACKED OFF FROM ITS\r\nINSISTENT FORECAST OF A LANDFALL IN MEXICO...AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK\r\nPARALLEL TO THE COAST.  A GRADUAL LEFT TURN IS ALSO CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECASTS SHOWING THE BUILDING OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 20N LATITUDE BY 36-48 HOURS.   \r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN IS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT.  THERE ARE\r\nNO OBVIOUS BANDING FEATURES...AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED IN\r\nCOVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  I CONSIDERED\r\nDECREASING THE CURRENT INTENSITY...BUT THE SYSTEM IS PROBABLY\r\nUNDERGOING THE USUAL DIURNAL DECREASE THAT WE OBSERVE DURING THE\r\nEVENING HOURS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO RELAX SOMEWHAT OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO...HENCE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST\r\nOVER THE 48 HOURS.  LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALETTA IS LIKELY TO ENTER\r\nA REGION OF STRENGTHENING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SHEAR\r\nCOULD INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT IN 2-3 DAYS...WHICH WOULD INHIBIT\r\nANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY...HOWEVER THERE IS A DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE INCREASING SHEAR COULD WEAKEN ALETTA MORE THAN\r\nEXPECTED IN 3-5 DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 16.0N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 16.2N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 16.5N 101.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 16.6N 101.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 16.6N 102.4W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 16.5N 104.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N 105.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W    45 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-05-29 09:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n200 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AROUND 03Z INDICATED THE CENTER OF \r\nALETTA HAD REMAINED WELL-DEFINED AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO\r\nDRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST MICROWAVE\r\nOVERPASS... INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION \r\nAND POSSIBLY A SMALL CDO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...45 KT FROM AFWA...AND THE\r\nRECENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE CDO-LIKE CONVECTIVE FEATURE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 360/02 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE\r\nPOSITION ESTIMATES BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL \r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ALETTA SLOWLY DEVELOPS\r\nEASTWARD. THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING\r\nSCENARIO...AND THE ONLY DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS LIES IN HOW\r\nFAST THEY MOVE ALETTA WESTWARD AFTER 72 HOURS. THE UKMET APPEARS TO\r\nBE TOO FAST IN THE LATTER PERIODS...WHICH HAS CONTAMINATED THE GUNA\r\nAND GUNS CONSENSUS FORECASTS. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLOWER THAN GUNA AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nTHE MUCH ADVERTISED DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE PAST\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS FINALLY APPEARS TO BE OCCURRING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nHAS IMPROVED TO THE WEST...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CDO-LIKE\r\nFEATURE COULD BE THE ONSET OF MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...\r\nMAINLY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE SHIPS MODEL DECREASES THE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR TO ABOUT 5 KT BY 24 HOURS...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASES THE\r\nWEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO 20-25 BY 48 HOURS AND BEYOND.\r\nTHEREFORE... THE INTENSIFICATION TREND WAS INCREASED A LITTLE BIT\r\nABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECASTS AFTER THAT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 16.2N 101.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 16.4N 101.2W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 16.4N 102.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 16.4N 102.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N 103.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 16.3N 104.7W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 16.0N 106.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 16.0N 107.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-05-29 15:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n800 AM PDT MON MAY 29 2006\r\n \r\nLOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THIS\r\nMORNING...AND THE EARLY SATELLITE VISIBLE PICTURES PROVIDE LITTLE\r\nADDITIONAL ASSISTANCE. THE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A DECREASE IN\r\nOVERALL DEEP CONVECTION...HOWEVER SOME CLUSTERS HAVE RE-DEVELOPED\r\nOVER THE LAST HOUR. A RECENT 1304Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALS NO WINDS\r\nOVER 30 KT...AND AN ANALYSIS OF THE AMBIGUITIES INDICATE THE LOW-\r\nLEVEL CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nPOSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO A GENEROUS 35 KT...\r\nBASED UPON THE 1304 QUIKSCAT PASS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND AFWA. DESPITE THE CURRENT LACK OF ORGANIZATION...SOME\r\nMODEST RE-STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE IF THE SHEAR DECREASES\r\nOVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/02 KT. THE QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nINCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT THE WESTWARD TURN AWAY FROM THE COAST HAS\r\nBEGUN AND IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON. ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH LIFTS\r\nOUT. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUING A\r\nWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY OUTLIER...\r\nNOGAPS...CONTINUES TO TAKE ALETTA ON A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK\r\nPARALLELING THE COASTLINE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT SLIGHTLY FASTER TO THE WEST. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 16.0N 101.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 102.0W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 16.0N 102.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 16.0N 103.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 16.0N 104.5W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 16.0N 106.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Aletta","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-05-29 21:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n200 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ALETTA BRIEFLY APPEARED EARLIER TODAY AS A\r\nBANDING FEATURE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS AND THE CONVECTION\r\nIS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/05. ALETTA HAS MAINTAINED\r\nA WESTWARD MOTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO\r\nBUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND STEER ALETTA\r\nWESTWARD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE\r\nWITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE BAMM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.\r\n\r\nONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR ALETTA TO SLIGHTLY RE-STRENGTHEN AS\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS BEFORE INCREASING SHARPLY IN A DAY OR SO. ON THE OTHER\r\nHAND...IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...ALETTA MAY WEAKEN\r\nTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FAVORS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE SHIPS MODEL IS\r\nSTRONGER BUT APPEARS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. AS A\r\nRESULT OF THE IMPINGING DRY AIR AND FORECASTED INCREASED SHEAR IN\r\nTHE LATER PERIODS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW WITHIN 4-5 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 15.9N 102.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 15.9N 102.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 15.8N 104.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 15.6N 105.7W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-05-30 03:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n800 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006\r\n \r\nALETTA IS STRUGGLING FOR SURVIVAL.  THE CLOUD PATTERN IS HIGHLY\r\nDISORGANIZED AND THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  AN AMSR-E IMAGE FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO\r\nSUGGESTED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS POORLY DEFINED.  THE\r\nSYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION BASED ON A\r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB...AS WELL AS THE\r\nCURRENTLY DISHEVELED APPEARANCE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ALETTA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RATHER DRY MID-LEVEL AIR MASS...AND WESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BEGIN INCREASING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\nTHESE FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE CURRENT TREND...WOULD APPEAR TO\r\nMITIGATE AGAINST RE-STRENGTHENING.  NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nFORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ALETTA IS FORECAST TO\r\nWEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE LATTER\r\nEVENT COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS SLOWLY WESTWARD...270/3.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A\r\nWEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ALETTA FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  THIS REGIME SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD\r\nMOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 16.0N 102.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 15.8N 103.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 15.7N 104.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 15.6N 105.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 15.5N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 15.5N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 15.5N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-05-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN ABSENT FROM ALETTA FOR ABOUT EIGHT HOURS\r\nUNTIL IT RESUMED AROUND 04Z THIS MORNING.  WHILE THE RECENT BURST HAS\r\nPERSISTED FOR A FEW HOURS... THE CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL\r\nORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT BASED ON A\r\nBLEND OF THE 06Z DVORAK ESTIMATES.  CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE PASSING FROM\r\nNORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... INDICATIVE OF\r\nTHE INCREASING SHEAR THAT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE WEAKENING OF THIS\r\nSMALL CYCLONE SINCE YESTERDAY... AND THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAIRLY\r\nSTABLE AND DRY.  GIVEN HOW MUCH ALETTA HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST THESE\r\nCONDITIONS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS... AND SINCE WESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO ROUGHLY DOUBLE IN MAGNITUDE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT 24-36 HOURS... RESTRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.  THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A\r\nREMNANT LOW WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS... A BIT FASTER THAN INDICATED IN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW\r\nIS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR SEVERAL DAYS... ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY\r\nSOONER THAN SHOWN IN THE FORECAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 16.0N 102.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 15.9N 103.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 15.8N 104.2W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 15.6N 105.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 15.3N 106.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 15.0N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 15.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 15.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-05-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH ALETTA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS NO\r\nAPPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN\r\n30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE A SHADE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS\r\nJUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALETTA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE CYCLONE AT\r\n30-35 KT...INDICATIVE OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE ALETTA WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER...IT IS\r\nLIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE STRONG\r\nSHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY\r\nOF THE CIRCULATION.\r\n \r\nEVEN WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO \r\nPINPOINT THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS\r\nFADING FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS\r\nHAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING ON TO A CENTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 16.0N 103.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Aletta","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-05-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP012006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALETTA\r\nHAS BECOME DIFFUSE AND ILL-DEFINED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SYSTEM IS NO\r\nLONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY. THE\r\nCONVECTION THAT WAS PRESENT EARLIER HAS LARGELY EVAPORATED. VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR IS STRONG OVER THE SYSTEM AND EXPECTED TO GET STRONGER. GIVEN\r\nTHIS AND THE DRY ENVIRONMENT...REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY. THE\r\nREMNANTS OF ALETTA ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 16.4N 103.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 16.4N 104.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 16.4N 105.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-06-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT\r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW\r\nDAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND\r\nENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL\r\nDEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY\r\nINTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD\r\nBRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND\r\nHIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A\r\nWEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD\r\nNOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND\r\nNEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS\r\nALSO A POSSIBLE ONE.\r\n \r\nBECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY\r\nTHREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST\r\nOF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W    20 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 17.5N  99.5W    20 KT\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-06-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A\r\nLITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. IT NOW CONSISTS\r\nOF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND SOME CONVECTIVE\r\nBANDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER-\r\nLEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AND\r\nA PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND.\r\nTHEREFORE...ONLY A 5-KNOT INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED IN THE\r\nFORECAST. THIS BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS\r\nBEFORE LANDFALL AND PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND APPEARS TO BE ON\r\nTHE SOUTH SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 035 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION\r\nCONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE\r\nWARNING AREA BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE\r\nRAIN IS ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND ACCORDING TO THE\r\nMEXICAN WEATHER SERVICE...ACAPULCO HAS ALREADY REPORTED NEARLY 11\r\nINCHES OF RAIN.\r\n \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A WEAKER CYCLONE MEANDERING NEAR OR\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN MEXICAN COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. IF THE CENTER\r\nREMAINS OVER WATER AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE\r\nDEPRESSION COULD MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY LONGER INSTEAD OF\r\nDISSIPATING OVER LAND.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 16.7N 102.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.6N 101.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 18.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 18.0N 100.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-06-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n2346Z TRMM AND 0106Z SSMI OVERPASSES INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nWAS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO\r\nSHEAR. SINCE THEN...CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER\r\nTHE LAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...30 KT\r\nTAFB...35 KT SAB...ALONG WITH THE POOR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. DUE TO SHEAR AND THE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND...THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM\r\nIS DIMINISHING. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...A CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN\r\nSLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/6. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING\r\nSTEERED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE SOUTH OF EASTERN\r\nMEXICO AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 24-36 HOURS...\r\nTHE STEERING MECHANISMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE IS\r\nFORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A COL AREA.\r\nBOTH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A LOOP\r\nOFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS\r\nAPPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BEFORE THIS LOOP\r\nCOULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS \r\nOR SO.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT...\r\nTHE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE\r\nPOTENTIAL OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 17.2N 102.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 17.7N 101.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-06-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006\r\n \r\nA SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 0319Z...INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHWEST EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF\r\nZIHUATANEJO.   THE ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH BLENDS THE MICROWAVE\r\nESTIMATES WITH CONTINUITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE\r\nCENTER...IS PROBABLY 20 N MI OR SO TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. \r\nMEANWHILE...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION\r\nCONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES.  THIS SHEARING FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO...AND SO LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. \r\nREGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...THE\r\nPRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS\r\nLIKELY TO TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES\r\nWITHIN AND INLAND OF THE WARNING AREA.\r\n\r\nTHERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS THAT THE MID-LEVEL\r\nVORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING A WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO\r\nLINGER OFFSHORE.  THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THIS IS ALREADY\r\nBEGINNING TO OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY BRINGS THE CENTER OF A\r\nDECAYING SYSTEM TO THE COAST.  THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL\r\nALL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 17.0N 102.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 17.2N 101.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-06-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST\r\nCONVECTION AS A RESULT OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. A SMALL\r\nBURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED VERY NEAR THE CENTER DURING\r\nHE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THAT IS THE ONLY THING THAT HAS KEPT\r\nTHIS SYSTEM ALIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY WAS DECREASE\r\nTO 25 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 090/04 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nLOCATED NORTH OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...AND THE\r\nRECENT FLAREUP OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALLOWED THE CENTER TO BE\r\nDRAGGED EAST-NORTHEAST TO EASTWARD BY THIS FLOW REGIME. NOGAPS IS\r\nTHE ONLY GLOBAL MODEL THAT HINTS AT TAKING THE WEAKENING SYSTEM\r\nINLAND NEAR ACAPULCO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE REST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO DIE-ON-THE-VINE JUST OFFSHORE.\r\nEVEN THE GFDL MODEL KEEPS TD-2E OFFSHORE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE THREE BAM MODELS...HOWEVER...TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND\r\nBY 24 HOURS...ALBEIT PROBABLY TOO FAR UP THE COAST FROM ITS CURRENT\r\nPOSITION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...ONLY A LITTLE FASTER...AND TAKES THE CYCLONE TO NEAR THE\r\nCOAST IN 24 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT SINCE SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM\r\nWOULD LIKELY NOT MAKE IT INTACT OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN\r\nOF SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR AND\r\nIT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTATUS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE MEXICAN COAST. HOWEVER...IT IS\r\nENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE RECENT BURST OF CONVECTION...IF IT\r\nPERSISTS...COULD INCREASE THE WINDS BACK TO 30 KT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 16.8N 101.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.9N 101.2W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 17.0N 100.4W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-06-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION HAS ACCELERATED EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OUT FROM\r\nUNDER THE EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION... THE LATTER OF WHICH HAS SINCE\r\nWEAKENED AND MOVED NORTHEASTWARD INTO MEXICO. AT 18Z...AS THE\r\nCENTER WAS PASSING SOUTH OF ACAPULCO... A SUSTAINED WIND OF 22 KT\r\nWITH A GUST TO 32 KT WAS REPORTED. THIS WIND DATA... ALONG WITH \r\nCONSENSUS T1.5 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES... IS BARELY ENOUGH TO\r\nKEEP THIS SYSTEM LIMPING ALONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 100/09 KT. THE DEPRESSION REMAINS\r\nNORTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS... AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A LARGER-SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC GYRE CENTERED OVER\r\nCENTRAL MEXICO. THE TWO WESTERLY STREAM FLOWS ARE EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE PUSHING THE CYCLONE EAST OR EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL STILL INSIST\r\nTHAT TD-2E WILL NOT MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...GIVEN THEIR\r\nLESS THAN STERLING PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST 2 DAYS... THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE\r\nVERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN 12 HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATES IT\r\nAFTER THAT...EVEN IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER.\r\n \r\nUNFAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR... DRY MID-LEVEL AIR\r\nPUNCHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE... AND THE CLOSE\r\nPROXIMITY TO LAND SHOULD INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...\r\nAND WILL LIKELY HELP TO BRING ABOUT ITS DEMISE BY THIS TIME\r\nTOMORROW... EVEN IF THE CYCLONE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER. THE GFDL\r\nMODEL DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE AFTER 24 HOURS OVER WATER... AND\r\nDISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EVEN SOONER IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND\r\nLATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 16.5N  99.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.3N  99.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Two-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-06-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP022006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006\r\n\r\nTHE LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTED THAT THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WAS BECOMING ILL-DEFINED.  SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS FROM ACAPULCO SHOWED ONLY SLIGHT EVIDENCE OF THE\r\nNEARBY CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHEN IT PASSED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF\r\nTHAT STATION A FEW HOURS AGO.  IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE MAXIMUM\r\nSUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO AROUND 20 KT.  THE\r\nCYCLONE LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED\r\nAS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS\r\nTIME.  THE MOTION...CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE 100/8...MAY BE JUST\r\nFAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF DUE EAST SO THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION...\r\nOR ITS REMNANTS...MAY NOT MOVE INLAND.  HOWEVER THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nREMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COASTLINE SO THAT THE INTERACTION WITH\r\nLAND WOULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE WEAKENING...OR AT LEAST PREVENT\r\nREGENERATION.\r\n\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 16.4N  99.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.0N  98.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Three-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 10 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND\r\nEARLY EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT\r\n625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED\r\nENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nTHREE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM THE TAFB.\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO\r\nTHE NORTH.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nLOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MOST OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOWER\r\nTHAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME\r\nINTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST.\r\nTHAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK\r\nSOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48\r\nHOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES.\r\n\r\nA SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN INDUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR\r\nINTRUSIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.\r\nHOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT\r\nLOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST...PRODUCING\r\nNORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION...THUS DECREASING THE SHEAR. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE\r\nFOR AT LEAST SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nMODEL FORECAST WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0145Z RETRIEVED A FEW 35-KT VECTORS JUST\r\nOUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... BUT I STILL SUSPECT THOSE WERE\r\nSLIGHTLY RAIN-INFLATED...AND 30 KT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE\r\nOF THE INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF\r\nTHE CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED... AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nARE UP TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  THOSE ESTIMATES\r\nDIFFER IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATITUDE OF THE CENTER\r\nLOCATION.  BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL\r\nAMBIGUITIES...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM WINDSAT AND\r\nSSMI...I HAVE SETTLED ON A CENTER LOCATION IN BETWEEN THE\r\nGEOSTATIONARY FIXES.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SINCE THE\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATE... AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED TROPICAL STORM BUD WITH\r\n35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  THE ADVISORY POSITION REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OF ABOUT 45 N MI... AND THE\r\nFORWARD MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/7.\r\n \r\nSINCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC\r\nFROM MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nBUD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS\r\nFORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS IS COMPLICATED BY\r\nINTERACTIONS WITH TWO OTHER CIRCULATIONS...A RELATIVELY SMALL AND\r\nSHALLOW ONE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST IN THE ITCZ...AND THE LARGER\r\nAND DEEPER DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 N MI TO THE EAST.  SINCE THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF BUD HAS BECOME FAIRLY ROBUST...I TEND TO FAVOR THE\r\nMODELS THAT DEPICT IT WELL...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND\r\nECMWF...WHICH DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH EITHER OF\r\nTHE OTHER CIRCULATIONS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT NORTH OF\r\nAND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... WHICH BRINGS BUD TO COOLER\r\nWATERS A LITTLE SOONER... IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 60 KT... IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nSOLUTIONS... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 13.7N 111.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.2N 112.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 113.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 115.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 117.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\nISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT BUD IS EXHIBITING A\r\nCLASSIC BURSTING TYPE PATTERN...OFTEN SYMPTOMATIC OF A SHEARED\r\nENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE COME IN\r\nAT T2.5...35 KTS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS\r\nPACKAGE. THE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM 12Z WERE CLOSER THAN SEEN\r\nPREVIOUSLY...AND SUGGESTS A WESTERLY ADJUSTMENT FROM SIX HOURS AGO.\r\nTHIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE AMBIGUITY IN THE 06Z CENTER POSITION\r\nAND IS NOT INTERPRETED AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. THE RECENT\r\nMOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 8 KTS.\r\n\r\nTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NORTH OF BUD FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE\r\nCOAST OF SOUTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO\r\nNORTH AMERICA WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE \r\nEXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THE DEPICTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE UKMET...IS\r\nCOMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE\r\nTO ITS WEST IN THE ITCZ. THE SMALL WESTERN CIRCULATION IS NOT\r\nEXPECTED TO IMPACT BUD MUCH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE\r\nLARGER/DOMINANT CIRCULATION...SO LITTLE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE\r\nUKMET AND CONU FORECASTS. THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF\r\nACAPULCO IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN BUDS TRACK\r\nFORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO GIVING THE\r\nDISTURBANCE MORE WEIGHT IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD SLOW DOWN BUD\r\nMORE THAN IS CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS BECOMING STEERED\r\nINCREASINGLY BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE. THE CURRENT\r\nTRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n\r\nA SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NORTHEAST OF BUD IS PRODUCING WEAK\r\nNORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPARENTLY IS RETARDING ITS\r\nDEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. EVEN THOUGH MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE THIS\r\nSMALL SCALE FEATURE WELL...OR AT ALL...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME\r\nLESS INFLUENTIAL WITH TIME. THIS IS OBSERVED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE\r\nWHICH SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO MORE FAVORABLE\r\nLEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO INDICATES THAT THE 200MB\r\nTEMP WILL BECOME WARMER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC\r\nCOMPONENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LACKING AS THE\r\nATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE.  THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD\r\nIS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HRS SHOULD\r\nLIMIT DEVELOPMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 13.9N 112.6W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE\r\nSHEAR/BURSTING PATTERN DESCRIBING BUDS DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS\r\nMORNING HAS NOW TURNED INTO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BANDING-TYPE\r\nPATTERN. THE CENTER...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH\r\nSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDED...THOUGH\r\nBY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS.  THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A\r\nPRIMITIVE BUT SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING AS WELL AS AN\r\nEXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY\r\nRESTRICTED.  ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RATHER ABRUPT INTENSIFICATION\r\nDURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH SAB\r\nAND TAFB BEAR THIS OUT...BOTH COMING IN AT T3.0...OR 45 KTS. \r\nHOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INTENSITY\r\nWAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER.\r\n\r\nOVERNIGHT AMBIGUITIES REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION ARE NO LONGER AS\r\nMUCH OF AN ISSUE...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. SMOOTHING\r\nOUT PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES YIELDS A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE\r\nOF 290 DEGREES...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 9 KTS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE\r\nTHAT A DEEP-LAYERED MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF BUD WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO STEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DIGGING\r\nSHORTWAVE TROF ALONG 150W WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT AND WESTWARD\r\nEXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD\r\nON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE.  ALL OF THIS ASSUMES THAT BUD REMAINS\r\nFREE OF THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY\r\nORGANIZING SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS\r\nINDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TYPE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE\r\nTWO SYSTEMS. FOR NOW...THIS WILL REMAIN A LOWER PROBABILITY\r\nALTERNATE SCENARIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...A BLEND OF BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.   \r\n \r\nWHATEVER NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WAS PRESENT OVER BUD UNTIL THIS\r\nMORNING HAS APPARENTLY WEAKENED...AS EVIDENCED BY ITS IMPROVED\r\nORGANIZATION AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW.  A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR DEVELOPMENT COULD BE RELATED TO THE DISSIPATION OF A WEAK\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST.  WHILE THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND\r\nA MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 TO 36 HOURS...IT TOO SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE COMPETING WITH A\r\nSLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT\r\nBUD IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 60 HRS...SHOULD\r\nLIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHOULD\r\nBE WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW BUD TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT SYSTEMS SUCH AS BUD ARE NOTORIOUS FOR\r\nTHEIR VOLATILE SWINGS IN INTENSITY.  AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST PRESENTED HERE MAY HAVE LARGER-THAN-NORMAL ERRORS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 14.4N 113.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.9N 114.3W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 116.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 117.9W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.6N 120.2W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 123.9W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.4N 127.1W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N 130.6W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-07-11 22:30:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n330 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS BUD HAS DEVELOPED A BANDED EYE\r\nFEATURE...INDICATING IT IS NOW A HURRICANE AND IS ALSO UNDERGOING\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE CURRENT INTENSITY...INCREASE THE\r\nINTENSITY TREND...AND EXPAND THE WIND RADII.  BUD IS SEVERAL HOURS\r\nINTO ITS PRESENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION TREND...AND ENVIRONMENTAL\r\nCONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS TREND TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST\r\nTHE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2230Z 14.2N 113.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 114.5W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 116.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 16.3N 118.2W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.8N 120.4W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 124.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.0N 127.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     16/1800Z 17.0N 130.5W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT BUD HAS BEEN\r\nUNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN EYE FEATURE FIRST PEAKING\r\nTHROUGH THE CIRRUS CANOPY AROUND 2030 UTC AND THEN BECOMING CLEARLY\r\nDEFINED BY 2230 UTC. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE T4.5...77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND T5.0...90 KT...\r\nFROM TAFB.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE\r\nESTIMATES BUT CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM UNDER THE\r\nASSUMPTION THAT THE WINDS ARE LAGGING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. \r\nWITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE SST SUFFICIENTLY\r\nHIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE\r\nTHROUGH 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO\r\nCOOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nTHROUGH 48 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR SLOWER WEAKENING THEREAFTER. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ON THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME INTERESTING\r\nSOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE GFS WHICH SHOWS BUD MOVING\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTING WITH AN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO ITS\r\nWEST...TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH PLOW BUD RIGHT INTO\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS THE\r\nPACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nWILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PRODUCE A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST BEGINNING BY 48 HOURS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 14.6N 114.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 115.6W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 117.7W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.3N 122.3W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SLIGHTLY ELLIPTICAL EYE HAS DEEPENED\r\nDURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SSMI IMAGERY AT 0353Z\r\nREVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS SLIGHTLY OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST... AND\r\nA BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL HAS VERY RECENTLY\r\nOBSCURED THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS\r\nWELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL DIRECTIONS...WITH PERHAPS JUST A SUBTLE\r\nRESTRICTION TO THE EAST DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM DEVELOPING TROPICAL\r\nSTORM CARLOTTA. OTHER THAN THAT...WITH THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ABOUT\r\n650 N MI EAST OF THE EYE OF BUD...THE CYCLONES APPEAR TO BE\r\nSUFFICIENTLY SEPARATED SUCH THAT SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN\r\nTHEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 77-90\r\nKT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...BUT THE\r\nRECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MIGHT BE SIGNS THAT BUD HAS\r\nPEAKED IN INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nBUD CONTINUES MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT ABOUT\r\n290/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nVORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 30N 130W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THAT FEATURE DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD\r\nBUILD WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC.  BUD SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH BY\r\nTHAT WEAKNESS BEFORE IT DISAPPEARS...SO A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...\r\nFOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THE MODELS\r\nTHAT HAVE A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE... SUCH AS THE\r\nGFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ANTICIPATE BUD TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT\r\nHEADING LONGER THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS SUIT.  ALONG THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...BUD WILL BE\r\nREACHING THE SHARP SST GRADIENT IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS...AND THE\r\nSSTS WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE DECLINE UNTIL THEN THAT TIME...SO THE\r\nNEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS LOWER AT 90 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAND ALSO SHOWS A MORE RAPID DECLINE BEYOND THAT TIME.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 15.0N 115.3W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 15.7N 117.0W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 121.7W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N 124.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 128.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 132.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n \r\nSINCE ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE YESTERDAY...BUD HAS BEEN\r\nUNDERGOING SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS EVIDENCED BY THE\r\nVARIABILITY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  INFRARED IMAGERY OVER\r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH\r\nTHE HURRICANE.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77\r\nKT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE\r\nREDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nAT 85 KT.  IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE\r\nINTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.  IN 24\r\nHOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS SO THE WINDOW\r\nFOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL SOON CLOSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR WEAKENING THEREAFTER...HOWEVER IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE\r\nTHEN BOTH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBUD CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 295/11. A\r\nWEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FOUND\r\nBETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE\r\nSTEERING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE\r\nPERIOD. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME\r\nSLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND\r\nFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET OFFICE TRACK. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 15.7N 116.2W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.4N 118.1W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.5N 120.6W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.4N 123.3W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.3N 125.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n\r\nBUD HAS BEEN ABLE TO MAINTAIN AN EYE FEATURE FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS\r\nAND CLOUD TOPS HAVE REMAINED COLD.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE\r\n90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND OBJECTIVE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATES FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS HAVE AVERAGED AROUND 90 KT. \r\nBASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO\r\n90 KT. THIS PEAK INTENSITY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS THE\r\nHURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIR MASS IN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH FIVE DAYS AND IS A BLEND OF SHIPS AND FSU\r\nSUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  A 14Z QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED SMALLER WIND\r\nRADII AND THE IN ITAL AND FORECAST VALUES REFLECT THIS NEW WIND\r\nFIELD DATA.    \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED...13 KT...IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE HEADING CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-\r\nNORTHWEST.  STEERING CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME...A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nRIDGE AND A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM EXISTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nTHE HURRICANE BETWEEN 125W AND 130W.  SUBSEQUENTLY A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD\r\nSPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.  THE GFS MODEL HAS BEEN\r\nHAVING A DIFFICULT TIME INITIALIZING THE HURRICANE AND LOSES THE\r\nSYSTEM IN 36 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ONCE AGAIN SLIGHTLY TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 16.3N 117.5W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 17.2N 119.3W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 18.4N 122.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 124.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 20.1N 126.7W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 21.0N 131.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 135.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 21.0N 139.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BUD HAS HAS AGAIN UNDERGONE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE WARMING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS\r\nOVER THE PAST 6 HOURS TO MINUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS. SATELLITE\r\nANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE EYE WALL HAS CLOSED OFF COMPLETELY\r\nOVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN MINUS 80\r\nOVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 115 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND AN ODT OF\r\n5.4 (99.6 KT) AT 00Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100\r\nKT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A\r\nLESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\nTHEREFORE...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE\r\nFORECAST...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE FSU\r\nSUPER-ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. A\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A HIGH SITUATED\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BUD ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A BREAK IN THE\r\nRIDGE CREATED BY A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W\r\nSHOULD INFLUENCE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE 24\r\nHOUR PERIOD. BY DAY 4...A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER BUD IS FORECAST TO\r\nTRACK WESTWARD AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING\r\nTHE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE\r\nGFDL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 17.1N 118.9W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nBUD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS\r\nA WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER...\r\nSURROUNDED BY NEARLY A COMPLETE RING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR\r\n-70C...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 102-115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO\r\n110 KT.  MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SEEMINGLY CANNOT LAST TOO MUCH\r\nLONGER...HOWEVER...AS BUD IS QUICKLY CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM.\r\nCONCURRENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0230Z\r\nINDICATES THAT THE 34-KT WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT. SINCE\r\nBUD IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL PROBABLY SPIN DOWN FAIRLY\r\nQUICKLY OVER THE COOLER WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS\r\nWHEN IT REACHES SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST ANTICIPATES JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID DECLINE THAN THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION OF THE\r\nSTORM...BUT STILL KEEPS BUD A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS IS\r\n290/15...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY IT HAS BEEN TRENDING LEFT OF THAT\r\nHEADING...OR MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE HURRICANE IS\r\nMOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nTHAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN\r\nTHE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT\r\nWEAKNESS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE\r\nTO BUILD WESTWARD.  ONCE THAT OCCURS AND BUD WEAKENS OVER COOLER\r\nWATERS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 21N\r\nLATITUDE...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  LEAVING OUT THE GFS THAT DOES NOT\r\nREPRESENT THE CIRCULATION OF BUD VERY WELL...THE OFFICIAL TRACK\r\nFORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY A LITTLE\r\nFASTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 17.5N 120.5W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nBUD'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND WITH\r\nWARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT THE EYE STILL REMAINS DISTINCT IN THE\r\nVISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nBETWEEN 102 AND 115 KT AT 12Z...THOUGH ODT WAS ABOUT 90 KT AND AMSU\r\nSUGGESTS WINDS AS LOW AS 82 KT.  INTENSITY IS THUS DROPPED TO 100\r\nKT.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\nABOUT 15 KT.\r\n\r\nBUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. \r\nALTHOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AROUND 130-140 W...BUD IS NOT\r\nLIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH IN TWO DAYS TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH. \r\nALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE GFS TRACKS BUD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 36\r\nHOURS THEN TURNS IT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT\r\n120 HOURS.  THE GFS TOO QUICKLY LOSES THE VORTEX AND PICKS UP ON A\r\nDIFFERENT DISTURBANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH\r\nINCLUDES THE GFS.  FOR INTENSITY...BUD SHOULD BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE\r\nSINCE IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL DROP TO 22C WITHIN\r\n24-36 HOURS.  SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS\r\nBUD MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS GUIDANCE PRIMARILY BUT IT IS\r\nSOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE FSU\r\nSUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-LGE MODEL.  BUD IS\r\nPREDICTED TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND\r\nCONTINUE WEAKENING THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 17.9N 122.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 124.2W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 127.0W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 21.0N 129.8W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nBUD CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MOST OF THE\r\nCOLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...THOUGH A RAGGED EYE REMAINS\r\nVISIBLE.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO\r\n90-102 KT.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE\r\nSOMEWHAT GENEROUS.  A 1339Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AT MOST 60 NMI FROM THE\r\nCENTER...SO THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD. THE HURRICANE'S\r\nMOVEMENT CONTINUES ALONG A REGULAR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 15\r\nKT.\r\n\r\nBUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  A\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE AT 130 W IS ANTICIPATED TO FILL AS A SHORT WAVE\r\nTROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD...SO THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO\r\nTURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...SOME OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX AFTER A DAY OR TWO. THE REMAINING MODELS\r\nSUGGEST A BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM\r\nBECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...\r\nTHE FORECAST IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AS THE NOGAPS CONTRIBUTION IS\r\nDOWNPLAYED. THE NOGAPS APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER THAN EXPECTED\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX FROM THREE TO FIVE DAYS ALLOWING IT TO BE\r\nPULLED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. BUD'S INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nDROPPING QUICKLY AS IT PROGRESSES OVER COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BUD SHOULD\r\nBECOME A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 18.4N 123.3W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nTHIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS A CONTINUED WEAKENING\r\nTREND FOR BUD. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND CORE CONVECTION\r\nCLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE\r\nFROM 90 TO 102 KT WITH THE T NUMBERS AND ODT DROPPING TO 77 AND 67\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY DECREASED TO 85 KT AS A\r\nCOMPROMISE. THE NCEP/MMAB DAILY HIGH RESOLUTION SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING\r\nOVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATER WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20\r\nTO 23 CELSIUS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A LESS FAVORABLE\r\nAIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT BUD...ULTIMATELY REDUCING THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.\r\nA MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BUD WILL WEAKEN BELOW\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH OR ACTUALLY DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. HURRICANE BUD IS\r\nTRACKING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nRIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST A CONTINUED\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWORDS...BUD IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW\r\nAS A REMNANT LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 18.9N 124.6W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 20.5N 129.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 21.2N 131.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.6N 134.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Bud","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n \r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT CONTINUE TO INDUCE A STEADY WEAKENING OF BUD.  THE\r\nHURRICANE IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE OVER SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C...AND\r\nONLY A FEW CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -50C REMAIN.  THE INTENSITY OF A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT WEAKENS DURING PASSAGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nPACIFIC SST GRADIENT IS ALWAYS UNCERTAIN...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF\r\n75 KT AT 06Z WAS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS DVORAK DATA T AND\r\nCI NUMBERS.  WITH THE CONVECTION QUICKLY ON THE DECLINE...THE 09Z\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT...AND BUD WILL WEAKEN TO A\r\nTROPICAL STORM SHORTLY.  THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BECOME A\r\nDEPRESSION NEAR THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND IT IS FORECAST TO\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS OR LESS.\r\n\r\nBUD IS STILL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13\r\nKT...STEERED BY THE DEPENDABLE DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.  THAT RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TURN\r\nTHE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE EVENTUAL REMNANT LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD WITH\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG ABOUT 22N...AS GENERALLY AGREED UPON BY\r\nTHE MODELS THAT RETAIN A CIRCULATION...SUCH AS THE GFDL AND NOGAPS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 19.5N 125.9W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 20.1N 127.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 20.9N 130.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 21.5N 133.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 21.8N 135.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 22.0N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 22.0N 150.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n \r\nBUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77\r\nKT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES.  DATA T-NUMBERS\r\nSUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE\r\n55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF\r\nCONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT.\r\n \r\nAS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING\r\nLOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN\r\nABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS\r\nFOUR AND FIVE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE\r\nAIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A\r\nHALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nRELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS\r\nTHE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n \r\nWITH THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS...STABLE AIR AND MODERATE\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUD IS LIGHT ON DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY WITH CURRENT VALUES OF 45-55 KT\r\nAND DATA T-NUMBERS OF 30-35 KT. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT.\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD'S TRACK IS NOW CLOSER TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY\r\nAT ABOUT 12 KT.\r\n \r\nBUD SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFSI AND GFDI MODELS WHICH SHOW A GOOD\r\nREPRESENTATION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO\r\nUNWIND AND LIKELY WILL DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SHORTLY.  A\r\nREMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE\r\nDAYS OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND GFDI.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 19.8N 128.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Bud","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED TO ADD TRACK IN LAST SENTENCE...\r\n \r\nTHIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION\r\nLINGERING APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER. VISIBLE ANIMATION REVEALS STABLE MARINE LAYER\r\nSTRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH\r\nPORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BESIDES THE COOLER\r\nSSTS...A BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING\r\nBUD. BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND\r\nTHE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LEFT OVER 35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTH\r\nQUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280 AT 14 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN\r\nTHE LOW LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE\r\nMODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFDN...INDICATE THAT BUD WILL\r\nOPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT\r\nWITH DISSIPATION AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF\r\nTHE MODELS. AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE...THE\r\nNOGAPS...GFS...AND CMC SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE\r\nISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET DISSIPATES THE TROUGH\r\nBEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS AND THE ECMWF AND GFDL INDICATE A TRACK\r\nSOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 20.1N 130.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006\r\n\r\nBUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 22-23 DEG C WATERS.  THERE\r\nARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION IS VERY DEEP.  THE HIGHEST\r\nUNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS FROM A 0320 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WERE\r\n30-35 KT.  BUD HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED A LITTLE FURTHER SINCE THE\r\nTIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30\r\nKT....WHICH DOWNGRADES THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS.  THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS AND THEREFORE IT IS FORECAST\r\nTO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  NONE OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER 48 HOURS SO THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OR BECOME\r\nAN OPEN WAVE BY HOUR 72.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/13...IS SIMILAR TO THAT USED IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC\r\nFORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY.  A MAINLY  WESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED\r\nAS BUD...OR ITS REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 20.4N 131.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.6N 133.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.9N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 138.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006\r\n \r\nBUD HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO AND\r\nCURRENTLY...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.\r\nBUD IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AND IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nA REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES OVER COLD\r\nWATERS. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 13\r\nKNOTS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 20.6N 132.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 21.0N 135.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Bud","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP032006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  21...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006\r\n\r\n...CORRECTED FOR HEADERS OF HIGH SEAS FORECAST PRODUCTS...\r\n \r\nBUD IS A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED\r\nWELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25\r\nKNOTS ALTHOUGH HIGHER GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN A FEW PASSING SHOWERS.\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WESTWARD TRACK ABOUT 13\r\nKNOTS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nBUD. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 21.1N 134.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 21.5N 136.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 21.5N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 21.5N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\n\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE\r\nTROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO\r\nHAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO BE DESIGNATED\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED\r\nON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT\r\nAND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AT\r\n12/00Z SHIPS A8AL6 AND SIWB REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 KT AND\r\n24 KT...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST SOUTH OF\r\nACAPULCO MEXICO. SHIP SIWB ALSO REPORTED 11 FT SEA HEIGHTS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE\r\nTO THE BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. THERE MAY BE SOME JUMPING\r\nAROUND OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT REFORMS NEAR ANY NEW CENTRAL\r\nCONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BEFORE\r\nFINALLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY  WITH THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS TAKING THE CYCLONE SLOWLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD... WHILE THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAM\r\nMODELS FAVOR A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...SINCE ALL OF THE\r\nMODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN\r\n130-150W LONGITUDE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE\r\nGFS-GFDL-UKMET SOLUTION.\r\n\r\nTHE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE\r\nTHROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY\r\nLOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE\r\nSHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE\r\nDEPRESSION AND ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY HINDRANCES\r\nTO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEAR TO BE THE LARGE SIZE OF THE\r\nDISTURBANCE AND MUCH COOLER WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING\r\nOVER AFTER 72 HOURS. IF MORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE INNER-\r\nCORE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN THIS SYSTEM COULD\r\nBECOME STRONGER BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER IN 72 HOURS.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL\r\nOFFSHORE...A PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO\r\nBE ISSUED AS LONG AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE\r\nFLOODING EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 14.4N 102.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 104.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 107.2W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.4N 111.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION FORMED NEAR\r\nTHE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSUGGESTING THE BURST IS TURNING INTO A BANDING FEATURE ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT\r\nUPGRADING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA AND INCREASING\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 35 KT. CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE IN A\r\nFAVORABLE PLACE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE\r\nAXIS LOCATED NORTH OF THE CENTER PROVIDING WEAK INITIAL AND\r\nFORECAST SHEAR VALUES. IN ADDITION AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER\r\nSOUTHWEST MEXICO SHOULD ALSO MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE WHICH WOULD ONLY ENHANCE OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF\r\nTHE SYSTEM. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES SUGGEST THERE\r\nIS ABOUT A 40-55% CHANCE OF THE INTENSITY INCREASING BY AT LEAST 25\r\nKT IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR... WARM SSTS NEAR 30C\r\nAND IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL\r\nINDICATE CARLOTTA APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\nCONTINUED STRENGTHENING BEYOND THEN IS LIKELY UNTIL SSTS DECREASE\r\nIN ABOUT 72 HOURS...AND THIS DIMINISHING EFFECT IS REFLECTED IN THE\r\nEXTENDED PORTION OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nSTAY FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM HURRICANE BUD TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT\r\nIMPACT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.\r\n\r\nDIRECTIONAL AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0119 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS ALONG WITH A\r\n0357 UTC TRMM WERE VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF THE\r\nCYCLONE... WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS CHANGES THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE TO BE A\r\nLITTLE MORE WESTWARD OF PREVIOUS... 285/10 KT. COMPUTER MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO STRUGGLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE TWO TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONES IN THE EPAC WITH SOME MODELS FAVORING BUD AT THE EXPENSE\r\nOF CARLOTTA AND VICE-VERSA. THE GENERAL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS THE\r\nSAME HOWEVER AS A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER NW MEXICO IS\r\nLOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... INDUCING A GENERAL\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH LITTLE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES. A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IS POSSIBLE IN THE\r\nEXTENDED RANGE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH WEAKENS IN THE\r\nEPAC...THOUGH MODELS NOW TEND TO KEEP THE HIGH A LITTLE STRONGER\r\nTHAN YESTERDAY. THE TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD A BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR\r\nTHE ADJUSTMENT IN INITIAL POSITION AND TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST BEING A LITTLE NORTH OF CONU.   \r\n \r\nA DISTANT BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST\r\nMEXICO COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING AND PUBLIC\r\nADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 14.1N 103.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 14.6N 105.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 15.4N 108.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 110.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 16.5N 112.0W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z 17.0N 115.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING...WITH SOME ILL-DEFINED BANDS\r\nBEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  THERE IS AMPLE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA\r\nBUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM IS STILL RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING.  DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT SO THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  THE SHIPS MODEL...USING THE GFS\r\nFORECAST FIELDS...INDICATES 13-15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER CARLOTTA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS IS PROBABLY IN\r\nASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION\r\nTHAT IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS.  HOWEVER...\r\nWATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT THIS UPPER CYCLONE IS NOT VERY\r\nSIGNIFICANT AND THE SHIPS SHEAR VALUES ARE PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGH. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS AND TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. \r\nTHIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.   GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS WITH A MORE RAPID DECLINE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD\r\nDUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/11...ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS\r\nNOT YET WELL-DEFINED.  THE STEERING SCENARIO IS A TYPICAL ONE FOR\r\nTHE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.  CARLOTTA IS EMBEDDED IN THE STEERING\r\nFLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  AS A RESULT\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE ON A WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTERLY HEADING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ONLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS\r\n3-5.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 14.5N 105.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.0N 107.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 15.6N 109.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.2N 111.3W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.5N 113.2W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N 116.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 119.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n\r\nTHE ORGANIZATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO INCREASE...AND\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE NOW EVIDENT.  CARLOTTA IS A LARGE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE THAT CURRENTLY LACKS MUCH OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATION VALUES FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA.  A WARM WATER/LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL FOR CARLOTTA OVER\r\nTHE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS\r\nPREDICTED...IN LINE WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE...THE SO-CALLED ICON.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD I EXPECT CARLOTTA TO BE TRAVERSING SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER\r\nWATERS...AND TO BE WEAKENING RATHER RAPIDLY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS EASIER TO LOCATE ON VISIBLE IMAGES...NONETHELESS THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...290/12.  A\r\nMID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA...WITH ITS\r\nAXIS ALONG 30N-35N...SHOULD PROVIDE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD STEERING\r\nREGIME FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nAPPEARS UNREALISTIC.  IN PARTICULAR...THE LATEST U.K. MET. OFFICE\r\nGLOBAL MODEL INTEGRATION DEPICTS A DECOUPLING OF CARLOTTA BEGINNING\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS...WITH THE 500 MB CENTER MOVING OFF TO THE WEST\r\nAND LEAVING THE SURFACE CENTER MEANDERING AND WEAKENING NEAR 110W\r\nLONGITUDE.  THIS SCENARIO APPEARS UNREALISTIC FOR SUCH A LARGE\r\nDEVELOPING CYCLONE...AND SO THE U.K. MODEL IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS\r\nPACKAGE.\r\n.\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED BASED ON AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 15.3N 106.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 108.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 16.3N 110.0W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 16.7N 112.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z 18.0N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     17/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CYCLONE CONTINUES\r\nTO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT FEATURES\r\nCLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C DEVELOPING INSIDE A LARGE AND\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT AS A COMPROMISE BASED ON A BLEND OF\r\nTHESES ESTIMATES AND THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/15.  CARLOTTA IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO...WITH HURRICANE BUD ABOUT 650 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA AND A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W.  WHILE THE PATTERN IS REASONABLY\r\nSTRAIGHT FORWARD...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS NOT.  BUD IS FORECAST\r\nTO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THREE DAYS OR SO...WHILE\r\nTHE LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTH DURING THAT TIME.  OVERALL...THIS\r\nSHOULD ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THE GFS AND\r\nGFDL FORECAST TWO MORE TROPICAL CYCLONES TO FORM EAST OF\r\nCARLOTTA...WITH CARLOTTA SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AS A RESULT.  THE\r\nUKMET SHEARS CARLOTTA APART...WHILE THE NOGAPS MOVES IT GENERALLY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE RIDGE.  AT THIS TIME... THERE ARE NO\r\nOBVIOUS SIGNS OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONES THE GFS AND GFDL ARE\r\nFORECASTING.  THEREFORE...THE NEW FORECAST TRACK MOST RESEMBLES\r\nTHAT OF THE NOGAPS...WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 24 HR\r\nFOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE BUILDS.  THE NEW TRACK IS\r\nNORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT\r\nPOSITION AND MOTION.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR CARLOTTA TO DECELERATE SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...AND THERE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IT COULD MOVE FASTER\r\nTHAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS\r\nEXCEPT THE NORTHWEST...WHERE IT IS FAIR.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HR.  AFTER THAT..IT SHOULD GRADUALLY\r\nWEAKEN IN A LIGHT-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nAN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 16.2N 107.9W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.9N 109.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 111.3W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.7N 112.9W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.8N 114.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 123.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nA 0340 UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT CARLOTTA IS\r\nDEVELOPING AN EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST... THOUGH AT\r\nTHAT TIME IT HAD NOT QUITE REACHED THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE\r\nHURRICANE JUDGING FROM THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nOCCASIONALLY SHOWS HINTS OF A DIMPLE FORMING WITHIN THE RATHER COLD\r\nCLOUD TOPS AND IT IS POSSIBLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE AN EYE\r\nPOKES OUT OF THE CDO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...IN\r\nBETWEEN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALL\r\nPARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION\r\nWITH VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WARM SSTS NEAR\r\n29C... AND NO OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. SHIPS IS\r\nDIAGNOSING AT LEAST 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS... WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SYMMETRIC\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE CIMSS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS WHICH SHOW\r\nEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE DURING\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROVIDING A\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN ADDITION...A LEFTWARD\r\nBEND TO THE TRACK AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH SEEMS LIKELY\r\nAND IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS ARE THE\r\nBASIS FOR AN INTENSITY FORECAST ABOVE SHIPS AND THE GFDL... WHICH\r\nHAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-FORECASTING CARLOTTA. WEAKENING MAY\r\nCOMMENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT.. 285/13 KT DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH A SHORTER-TERM\r\nMOTION PERHAPS EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT. THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE\r\nMORE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE\r\nMID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS A LITTLE\r\nSTRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH FORCES THE\r\nHURRICANE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK. ONLY THE NOGAPS NOW BRINGS\r\nCARLOTTA NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF PREVIOUS AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS\r\nAND ECMWF... BOTH OF WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE REASONABLE\r\nREPRESENTATIONS OF THE STORM'S LIKELY FUTURE STATE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 16.4N 109.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W    85 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W   100 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W    50 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED AND IN\r\nFACT...IT HAS DETERIORATED A LITTLE BIT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.\r\nTHIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA WHICH SHOWS THE\r\nCENTER OF THE CYCLONE ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION.\r\nSINCE THE T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO DECREASED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nADJUSTED DOWN TO 70 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. IT APPEARS THAT THE OUTFLOW\r\nFROM BUD IS AFFECTING CARLOTTA AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE.  ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...A WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER...\r\nPRIMARILY WHEN THE CYCLONE REACHES RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS\r\nIS ALSO THE SOLUTION OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 290 DEGREES\r\nAT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nCENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD\r\nACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS GENERAL STEERING PATTERN IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...CARLOTTA\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. BY THEN...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BE A\r\nSHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOL WATERS STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 17.3N 110.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.7N 112.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 116.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.2N 118.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 18.5N 121.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 19.0N 123.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 126.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS MADE A COME BACK...JUST A LITTLE...AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER AS THE SHEAR\r\nEFFECT FROM BUD'S OUTFLOW DIMINISHES. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN\r\nA BANDING TYPE EYE TRYING TO FORM AND THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGES IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS.  ON THIS BASIN...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY\r\nMARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND IN FACT...MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE KEEPS THE HURRICANE ON A STEADY STATE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO\r\n24 HOURS AND SHOWS A WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nCARLOTTA IS PASSING JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. IT WOULD HAVE BEEN\r\nVERY USEFUL TO HAVE AN OBSERVATION FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC\r\nWEATHER STATION THERE. CARLOTTA IS MOVING TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT STRONG\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKNESS AND\r\nBECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM OVER COOLER WATERS...IT SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nMORE TO THE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS TRACK IS CONSISTENT\r\nWITH THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL...AND NOT WITH THE GFS WHICH\r\nDISSIPATES CARLOTTA QUICKLY AND FORMS A NEW CYCLONE TO THE EAST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 17.8N 111.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.4N 113.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.6N 116.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 118.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 19.0N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 124.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N 127.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-07-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN A DECREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND THE INTENSITY OF THE\r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...\r\nWITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF TOPS COLDER THAN -70C REMAINING TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF A VERY POORLY-DEFINED EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 75 KT.  HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.  WHILE\r\nCARLOTTA RETAINS A GOOD OUTFLOW PATTERN...SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nINDICATES CIRRUS CLOUDS FLOWING AROUND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG\r\n117W ARE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE HURRICANE...\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.  THIS MAY BE CREATING SOME SHEAR THAT HAS\r\nSTOPPED INTENSIFICATION.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE ADJACENT\r\nPACIFIC WATERS...WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 32N132W.  HURRICANE\r\nBUD IS CENTERED ABOUT 700 N MI WEST OF CARLOTTA...WHILE A SMALL\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE NEAR 22N117W.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 3-4\r\nDAYS...WHICH SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA TO A WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE\r\nNEXT 24 HR AND KEEP IT GOING GENERALLY WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL DIRECTION OF\r\nMOTION...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE SPEED.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF ALL DEVELOP ONE OR MORE NEW\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONES EAST OF CARLOTTA...WITH THE RESULT THAT THE GFS\r\nLOSES THE STORM WITHIN 72 HR.  WHILE THESE NEW STORMS MAY\r\nEVENTUALLY OCCUR...IT IS LIKELY THAT THEY WILL NOT FORM IN TIME TO\r\nAFFECT CARLOTTA.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNA AND CONU\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND SHOULD REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HR. \r\nSINCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND\r\nDOWN...BECOMING A DEPRESSION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS AND A REMNANT LOW IN\r\nABOUT 5 DAYS.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA COULD WEAKEN FASTER\r\nTHAT CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 18.1N 112.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.4N 113.6W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 115.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.6N 117.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.8N 119.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N 122.5W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 20.0N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 20.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-07-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH\r\nCARLOTTA DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH AN ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE\r\nCLOUD PATTERN FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A TRMM MICROWAVE\r\nPASS AT 0339 UTC STILL SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE IN THE 85 GHZ CHANNEL\r\nWITH A WEAKER REFLECTION AT 37 GHZ. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FROM A\r\nPOORLY-FORECAST UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG ABOUT 117W IS STILL\r\nUNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW OF THE HURRICANE AND DISRUPTING ANY\r\nSIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION IN THE INNER CORE. OCCASIONALLY A WARM\r\nSPOT TRIES TO EMERGE FROM WITHIN THE RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST\r\nBUT THE FEATURE IS SHORT-LIVED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE\r\nUNCHANGED AND SO IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT. ALL\r\nMODELS SUGGEST WIND SHEAR OVER CARLOTTA WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT\r\n24 HOURS WHICH MIGHT SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER...SINCE\r\nCOMPUTER MODELS ARE NOTORIOUS FOR WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TOO\r\nQUICKLY AND SSTS ARE DROPPING...IT SEEMS LIKE THE BEST FORECAST IS\r\nFOR SLOW WEAKENING DURING THE PERIOD...CLOSE TO SHIPS.\r\n\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nMORE TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER IN THE EVENING. CARLOTTA HAS ALSO\r\nSLOWED...MOVING ABOUT 275/7. PERHAPS THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD\r\nMOTION HAS TRULY COMMENCED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE NORTHEAST\r\nPACIFIC. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nSEVERAL DAYS AS ONLY THE NOGAPS MODEL BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANY SIGNIFICANT POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION.\r\nTHE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS AND IS BETWEEN CONU\r\nAND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED BASED ON A 0206 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 18.1N 112.8W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 18.2N 114.2W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.4N 116.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 18.6N 118.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.8N 120.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-07-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n \r\nTHE NORTHERN HALF OF CARLOTTA'S CIRCULATION IS OVER COOL WATERS AND\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE. T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN AS FAST AS DVORAK RULES ALLOW\r\nAND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT)...LATEST VERSION...FROM THE\r\nUNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS AVERAGED NUMBERS AROUND 3.2 ON THE\r\nDVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWN TO 65\r\nKNOTS AND THIS APPEARS TO BE CONSERVATIVE SINCE THE SYSTEM MAY BE\r\nBELOW HURRICANE INTENSITY AS WE SPEAK. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE\r\nCIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...SO WEAKENING IS INDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER\r\nTHAN FORECAST.       \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN\r\nAND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...A TURN \r\nMORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 18.4N 113.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 117.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 119.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.0N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 125.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 129.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-07-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA HAS BECOME A VERY TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW\r\nWELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY-CURVED BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND QUIKSCAT DATA SUPPORT\r\n60 KNOTS. CARLOTTA'S ENTIRE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED...AND THIS COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN FORECAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 285/8. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER WEAKEN\r\nAND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEN...A\r\nTURN MORE TO THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 18.6N 114.4W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.9N 115.6W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 117.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 119.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 19.5N 123.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 19.6N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-07-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006\r\n \r\nSOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY...CARLOTTA HAS MADE A COMEBACK THIS EVENING. \r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER...AND A CLOUD-FILLED EYE HAS DEVELOPED.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 77 KT FROM TAFB...AND ARE 65\r\nKT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS...CARLOTTA IS UPGRADED TO A\r\n70-KT HURRICANE.  THE CYCLONE HAS FAIR TO GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW IN\r\nALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE NORTHEAST WHERE IT IS POOR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/9.  CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nA MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES...AND THE ADJACENT PACIFIC WATERS.  THE STORM IS ALSO\r\nAPPROACHING THE NORMAL STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nPACIFIC.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO\r\nSTAY PRESENT NORTH OF CARLOTTA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH CAUSED BY THE HANDLING\r\nOF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD TURN CARLOTTA WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TWO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUING THE WESTWARD MOTION AS\r\nCARLOTTA WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER.  HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE\r\nIS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.  AFTER ABOUT 48 HR...THE\r\nNOGAPS CALLS FOR A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...THE GFDL CALLS FOR A\r\nSOUTHWARD MOTION...THE UKMET A SLOWER WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...\r\nAND THE BAMS A FASTER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST\r\nTRACK COMPROMISES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES WITH A WESTWARD MOTION OF\r\n6-8 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN\r\nUPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA SHOULD REACH THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A\r\nFEW HOURS AND THEN MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER.  THE\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT...SO THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nSEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANALYSES FROM NCEP IN WASHINGTON DC SHOW A\r\nCOLD WATER EDDY AHEAD OF CARLOTTA...AND IF THE STORM PASSES OVER\r\nTHIS FEATURES IT COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 18.9N 115.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N 116.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 118.6W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.5N 120.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 19.5N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 19.5N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 19.5N 130.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-07-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006\r\n\r\nAFTER ITS UNEXPECTED COMEBACK YESTERDAY EVENING...CARLOTTA DOES NOT\r\nAPPEAR TO BE QUITE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS SEVERAL HOURS AGO. \r\nIT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIRLY DEEP CONVECTION IN A CENTRAL DENSE\r\nOVERCAST...WITH CLOUD TOPS NEAR -70C NEAR ITS CENTER.  HOWEVER...AN\r\nEYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON GEOSTATIONARY IMAGES....NOR WAS AN EYE\r\nEVIDENT ON A 0316 UTC SSMIS OVERPASS FROM 0316 UTC.  NONETHELESS...\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM THE VARIOUS AGENCIES CONTINUE TO\r\nSUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH WIND SPEED ESTIMATES RANGING FROM\r\n65 TO 77 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 70 KT FOR\r\nTHIS ADVISORY.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW CONTINUE TO BE INHIBITED\r\nOVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE BUT IT IS FAIRLY\r\nWELL DEFINED OVER CARLOTTA'S WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE HURRICANE IS\r\nCURRENTLY CROSSING THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  IN\r\nFACT...AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DAILY NCEP SST\r\nANALYSES SHOW A PATCH OF UNUSUALLY COOL WATERS...NEAR 21 DEG C...IN\r\nTHE VICINITY OF 19N 125W.  THIS COULD HASTEN THE DEMISE OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND CARLOTTA MIGHT DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW\r\nSOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 280/9.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD\r\nIN THE TRACK GUIDANCE.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE GFDL MODELS SHOW A\r\nSOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PREDICT A\r\nWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THE SOUTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nPREDICTED BY THE GFS AND GFDL IS PROBABLY IN RESPONSE TO THE\r\nFORMATION OF A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF CARLOTTA IN\r\nTHESE MODELS WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  WHEREAS THIS VORTEX\r\nINTERACTION MAY INDEED OCCUR...WE WILL WAIT FOR A BETTER AGREEMENT\r\nAMONG ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...OR OF COURSE A SIGNIFICANT LEFT\r\nTURN...BEFORE SHIFTING THE FORECAST TRACK SOUTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOWS A MAINLY\r\nWESTWARD TRACK... WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 19.0N 116.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 19.2N 117.9W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.3N 119.7W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 19.5N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 19.5N 123.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 125.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 19.5N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES\r\nASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA CONTINUE TO WARM INDICATING GRADUAL\r\nWEAKENING. STILL...A RELATIVE WARM SPOT IS SEEN NEAR THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION IMPLYING CARLOTTA IS STUBBORNLY HANGING ON TO HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nRANGING FROM 4.5 OR 77 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB TO 4.0 OR 65 KT FROM\r\nAFWA.  IT IS HARD TO IMAGINE CARLOTTA BEING A 77 KT HURRICANE GIVEN\r\nTHE DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN.  ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT IN LINE WITH THE LOWER END OF THE DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE RAW ODT VALUES.  WHILE SATELLITE BASED\r\nSST ESTIMATES SHOW A SMALL AREA OF MARGINALLY WARM WATER IN THE\r\nVICINITY OF CARLOTTA...THE CYCLONE WILL SOON BE OVER MUCH COOLER\r\nWATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING MAKING\r\nCARLOTTA A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS.     \r\n \r\nCARLOTTA APPEARS TO MOVING A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE WEST YIELDING AN\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/09. IN FACT...THE LAST COUPLE OF\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IMPLIES\r\nTHAT THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STEERING THE CYCLONE IS A\r\nLITTLE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSHOW CARLOTTA CONTINUING TO MAKE SOME POLEWARD PROGRESS THROUGH 24\r\nTO 36 HOURS. IN LIGHT OF THE PRESENT TRENDS IN MOTION...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND LIES ON THE\r\nSOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH 24 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...A DUE WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN LINE WITH THE BAM\r\nSHALLOW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 18.8N 117.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 119.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 19.2N 121.5W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 19.2N 123.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.2N 125.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 19.2N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA HAS BECOME SEPERATED FROM THE DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT CARLOTTA HAS SUCCUMED TO COOLER\r\nWATERS AND STABLE AIR AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO\r\n55 KT.  THE CURRENT FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOTTA WILL NOT BE ABLE\r\nTO REGENERATE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...AND\r\nWEAKENING IS SHOWN THROUGH 48 HOURS. CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nDISSIPATE THEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 280/09.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES\r\nWERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK DUE TO A SMALL NORTHWARD\r\nADJUSTMENT OF THE INITIAL POSITION. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 19.4N 118.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N 120.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 19.8N 122.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 19.8N 124.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 19.8N 126.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA CONTINUES ITS WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING..AND IS ALMOST\r\nDEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION AS DEPICTED IN INFRARED IMAGERY.\r\nEVEN THOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE\r\n65 KT...THESE VALUES ARE DUE MOSTLY TO THE CONSTRAINTS OF THE\r\nTECHNIQUE.  3-HOUR AVERAGED ODT NUMBERS YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nAROUND 45 KT.  BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nOF CARLOTTA HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 45 KT.  SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF\r\n23 TO 24 DEGREES CELSIUS COMBINED WITH A DRY AND MORE STABLE AIR\r\nMASS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA IS MAINTAINING A WESTWARD MOTION AT 280/10.  AS THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STEERING WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nMEAN FLOW ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH\r\nAND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nBASED UPON A SHIP...ELT27...LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOTTA...\r\nADJUSTMENTS TO THE 12 FT SEAS RADII WERE MADE.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 19.7N 119.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 121.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 20.1N 123.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 20.2N 125.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 20.2N 126.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006\r\n\r\nCARLOTTA CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER\r\nTHE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nASSESS THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE VIA THE DVORAK\r\nTECHNIQUE SINCE THERE IS SO LITTLE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nDVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY... C.I. ... NUMBERS ARE INVARIABLY TOO\r\nHIGH IN THESE CASES.  USING AN AVERAGE OF THE T- AND C.I. NUMBERS\r\nUSUALLY GIVES A MORE REASONABLE RESULT.  TAKING THE MEAN OF THESE\r\nVALUES FROM THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION GIVES 40 KT...AND EVEN THIS MAY\r\nBE GENEROUS.  IN ANY EVENT THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN\r\nOVER COOLER WATERS AND BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nWITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 280/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE WEAKENING\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC\r\nEASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE AREA.  A\r\nCONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 19.9N 120.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.2N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 20.5N 124.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 125.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006\r\n \r\nEXCEPT FOR SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...CARLOTTA HAS\r\nBEEN ESSENTIALLY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 12-18\r\nHOURS.  THE REMAINING SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN\r\nAND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT BASED ON THE UW CIMMS\r\nAODT ESTIMATE OF 28 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.\r\n \r\nCARLOTTA CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR ABOUT\r\n285/10.  WITH THE CYCLONE QUICKLY BECOMING VERTICALLY SHALLOW...IT\r\nSHOULD BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES\r\nSOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A\r\nGENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION IN 72\r\nHOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY FORECASTS. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 20.2N 121.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 123.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 20.9N 125.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.0N 128.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006\r\n \r\nDESPITE THE ABSENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE LARGE SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CARLOTTA REMAINS IMPRESSIVE IN VISIBLE\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n30 KT. HOWEVER...THE INABILITY TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION WILL\r\nRESULT IN THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN AND BECOMING A\r\nREMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW\r\nIS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS OVER COOLER WATER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCHANGED AT 285/10. OWING TO ITS NOW\r\nVERTICALLY SHALLOW STRUCTURE...CARLOTTA WILL BE STEERED BY THE\r\nLOWER-TROPOSPHERIC EASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 20.8N 123.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 21.1N 125.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 21.1N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Carlotta","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP042006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 16 2006\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES DEPICTS CARLOTTA AS A LARGE DISTINCT\r\nSWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FROM\r\nTHE CYCLONE FOR 24 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nTRACK AROUND 10 KT...BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AND\r\nWEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON\r\nCARLOTTA.  ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN\r\nHIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER\r\nAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 20.9N 123.5W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N 124.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 21.4N 126.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 21.4N 128.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Twelve-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-08-30 05:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n1000 PM PDT TUE AUG 29 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED\r\nABOUT 525 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA HAS BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING\r\nSOME EASTERLY SHEAR WITH THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE\r\nEASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTION.  MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR WILL RELAX A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE DAYS ALLOWING THE CYCLONE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.\r\nTOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEARING THE 26C\r\nISOTHERM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME WEAKENING.  \r\n \r\nGIVEN THE LACK OF AN WELL-DEFINED CENTER UNTIL RECENTLY...THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/4.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nFOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...POSSIBLE INTERACTIONS WITH\r\nHURRICANE JOHN COMPLICATE THE FORECAST.  ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL OF\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE LITTLE OR NO REPRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD IN LINE\r\nWITH THE DEEP BAM MODEL.  GIVEN THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH\r\nJOHN...GREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE TRACK FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0500Z 16.2N 114.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 16.4N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 16.9N 115.0W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 17.9N 116.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 18.8N 117.9W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 19.5N 119.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TD-12E HAS BECOME BETTER\r\nORGANIZED AS A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND\r\nEXPANDED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nARE T2.5/35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...SO THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nUPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM KRISTY.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 305/6...BASED ON A BLEND\r\nOF INFRARED SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS AND EARLIER QUIKSCAT WIND DATA.\r\nKRISTY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER\r\nTHAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF 6-8 KT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TOWARD A BROAD WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nAXIS SITUATED BETWEEN 120-130W LONGITUDE. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nCREATING THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY ALLOW THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF KRISTY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT NORTH OF...THE\r\nNHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nKRISTY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28-29C SSTS AND IN A VERY LOW\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OF LESS THAN 5 KT FOR THE NEXT 48\r\nHOURS...SO AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING SEEMS REASONABLE. GIVEN\r\nTHAT KRISTY IS A SMALL AND TIGHT CIRCULATION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE COULD INTENSIFY FASTER THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS INDICATING AND BECOME A HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 16.5N 114.7W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 17.0N 115.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 17.6N 116.4W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 117.6W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 18.7N 118.8W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 123.5W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THERE WAS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES ON EARLIER\r\nSATELLITE PICTURES...RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A COMMA-LIKE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN IS DEVELOPING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE VERY COLD OVER THE ESTIMATED\r\nCENTER.  BASED ON THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND\r\nBANDING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 50\r\nKT...ABOVE ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  KRISTY COULD BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...OR LESS.  GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THE\r\nSHORT-TERM OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE\r\nGUIDANCE.   IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS AND A\r\nMODEST INCREASE IN SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HALT THE INTENSIFICATION\r\nPROCESS.  \r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 305/5.  ALTHOUGH THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN APPEARS TO BE\r\nRELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND\r\nNORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD CAUSE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A\r\nLITTLE INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD\r\nMOTION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF CLIMATOLOGY...THE GFS\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND CLIMATOLOGY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 16.7N 115.1W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 117.0W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N 123.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 125.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAD WARMED\r\nOVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE\r\nORGANIZED ON TODAY'S VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES AND A NEW BURST OF\r\nCOLD-TOPPED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE IS A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING NEARLY ALL THE WAY AROUND THE\r\nSYSTEM CENTER...WITH EVEN A SUGGESTION OF AN INTERMITTENT EYE-LIKE\r\nFEATURE.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS YIELD A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55\r\nKT...WHICH IS USED...MAYBE CONSERVATIVELY...FOR THE ADVISORY WIND\r\nSPEED.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS INCREASING AND KRISTY SHOULD REMAIN\r\nOVER FAIRLY WARM WATERS FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IN GENERAL\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.  LATER\r\nON...INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLING WATER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO\r\nINDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION CONTINUES AT AROUND 305/5.  A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE\r\nSYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH OF THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nSTEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...MUCH OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO BROAD-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE\r\nEAST OF KRISTY.  SINCE THIS MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY REALISTIC...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY BENDS THE TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AT\r\nHOURS 96-120. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 17.0N 115.6W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 17.5N 116.4W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 117.7W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 119.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 120.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N 123.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 19.5N 125.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 19.0N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUING TO BURST...WITH A\r\nLARGE AREA OF COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE\r\nESTIMATED CENTER OF KRISTY. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS WERE 3.5 FROM SAB\r\nAND AFWA...AND 4.0 FROM TAFB.  THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS\r\nINCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS FROM\r\n1800 UTC SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYEWALL WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP...\r\nHOWEVER THERE ARE NO RECENT INDICATIONS OF AN EYE IN CONVENTIONAL\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nGUIDANCE...AS THE THE GFDL MODEL IS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM\r\nINITIALLY.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE\r\nBEYOND 36 HOURS KRISTY SHOULD BEGIN MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS...AND\r\nTHE FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW DECREASE IN INTENSITY AT THAT TIME. \r\nALSO...THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN INTRODUCES\r\nADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY AT LATER PERIODS.  INDEED...THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nSUGGESTS INCREASINGLY SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER KRISTY AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...POSSIBLY DUE TO IMPINGING OUTFLOW FROM JOHN.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...AS THERE\r\nIS CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE AMONGST THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS. THE\r\nNOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS ABSORB KRISTY INTO JOHN'S CIRCULATION IN\r\n2 OR 3 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS...ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP THE CYCLONES\r\nSEPARATE THROUGH DAY 3. THE GFS AND UKMET INITIALLY TRACK KRISTY\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER\r\nNORTHERN MEXICO AND LATER TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST AND\r\nSOUTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...AND IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD INITIAL MOTION. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE FORECAST SLOWS\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO INDICATE THE LARGE UNCERTAINTY AT THOSE TIMES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 17.2N 115.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 119.0W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 120.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 123.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 124.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 19.5N 126.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kristy","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE\r\nCENTER WHILE LOSING ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW INDICATES A NEARLY CIRCULAR SYSTEM\r\nWITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE.  T-NUMBERS WERE 4.0 FROM SAB...\r\n4.5 FROM TAFB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT\r\nAND AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF\r\nSATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITIES AND A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES AT\r\n0200 AND 0330 UTC WHICH INDICATED AN EYEWALL COULD BE DEVELOPING\r\nUNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLOW...ABOUT 315/5.  KRISTY AND HURRICANE\r\nJOHN ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 NM APART AT NEARLY THE SAME LATITUDE. \r\nAT THIS DISTANCE...SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO\r\nCYCLONES IS POSSIBLE.  IF A BINARY INTERACTION OCCURS...BECAUSE\r\nKRISTY IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXHIBIT\r\nERRATIC AND SLOW MOTION...PROBABLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED\r\nSHEAR...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION OF JOHN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...AND\r\nSUGGESTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE\r\nSHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND KRISTY REMAINS OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 26\r\nCELSIUS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE\r\nSHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF\r\n80 KT.  BEYOND THAT TIME KRISTY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE FUTURE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ANY\r\nINTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 17.6N 116.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    50 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kristy","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 90 KT.  ADT\r\nESTIMATES FROM CIMSS ARE STILL BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  BANDING\r\nTHAT WAS PRESENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY A FEW HOURS AGO NOW HAS\r\nDEGRADED SOMEWHAT.  AN 1138 TRMM PASS SHOWS A PARTIAL EYEWALL OPEN\r\nTO THE SOUTH...WHEREAS AN EARLIER PASS WAS MORE COMPLETE.  BASED ON\r\nTHESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 65 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/5.  KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THERE COULD BE AN INTERACTION WITH THE CIRCULATION OF\r\nHURRICANE JOHN...CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF KRISTY.  MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE NOGAPS SHOWING AN ALMOST\r\nIMMEDIATE INTERACTION AND THE GFDL SHOWING NONE AT ALL.  THE\r\nDEPICTIONS OF BOTH CIRCULATIONS IN THE NOGAPS SEEM TOO LARGE...BUT\r\nTHE GFDL TRACK FOR JOHN IS AN EASTERN OUTLIER.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TAKES A MIDDLE GROUND ON THE INTERACTION SCENARIO AND\r\nANTICIPATES THAT BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...JOHN WILL SLOW\r\nTHE WESTWARD PROGRESS OF KRISTY TO A CRAWL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT A MAJORITY OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n\r\nWIND SHEAR OVER KRISTY IS PRESENTLY LIGHT...AND WATER TEMPERATURES\r\nWILL BE AT OR ABOVE 27C FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD GIVE\r\nKRISTY AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...ALTHOUGH NONE\r\nOF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE GETS ABOVE 70 KT.  OUTFLOW FROM JOHN IS\r\nEXPANDING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD KRISTY...AND SHOULD BE ANOTHER\r\nINHIBITING FACTOR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED DOWNWARD FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT IS STILL ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO BE DISSIPATING WITHIN THE\r\nOUTER CIRCULATION OF JOHN LATE IN THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 17.9N 116.5W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 18.5N 117.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 19.3N 118.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 119.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N 120.5W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 121.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 20.0N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 20.0N 122.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kristy","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE PASSES SHOW A NICE EYEWALL FEATURE...ALTHOUGH AN EYE IS\r\nSTILL NOT APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT.  THERE IS ONLY A SMALL WINDOW FOR\r\nADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATIONS TONIGHT BEFORE COOLER WATERS...STABLE\r\nBOUNDARY LAYER AIR...AND APPROACHING EASTERLY OUTFLOW FROM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6.  KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT.  A WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE CYCLONE...AND THERE IS A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO KRISTY'S NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THIS SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A FAIRLY SLOW MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  MUCH\r\nOF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE BUILDS THE RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS AHEAD OF JOHN...FORCING KRISTY TO THE SOUTHWEST WITHIN A\r\nBROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC MONSOON-LIKE FLOW...OR EVEN EASTWARD AGAIN\r\nIF IT GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION OF JOHN.  IN WHAT SHOULD\r\nBE A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...THE TRACK OF KRISTY WILL TURN LARGELY ON\r\nHOW MUCH CONVECTION IT CAN MAINTAIN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nANTICIPATES THAT KRISTY WILL BE A VERY WEAK SYSTEM AFTER 72 HOURS\r\nAND WOULD THEN BEGIN A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 18.4N 117.2W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 19.0N 118.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 19.7N 119.1W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 119.9W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 20.0N 120.4W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 121.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 19.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Kristy","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT THU AUG 31 2006\r\n \r\nTWO AFTERNOON MICROWAVE PASSES...ONE FROM 1757Z AND THE OTHER FROM\r\n2057Z...REVEALS A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE. HOWEVER...AS WAS THE\r\nCASE EARLIER IN THE DAY...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO\r\nEVIDENCE OF AN APPARENT EYE.  DESPITE THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF\r\nT4.0 FROM BOTH TAFB/SAB...KRISTYS OVERALL APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER\r\nAMORPHOUS.  DESPITE ITS RAGGED PRESENTATION...KRISTY IS RETAINED\r\nAS A 65 KT HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  \r\n\r\nRECENT SATELLITE FIXES AND THE EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT \r\nKRISTY MAY HAVE BEEN TOO FAR SOUTH...AND THUS THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A LONGER-TERM EXAMINATION\r\nOF THE RECENT FIXES SUGGESTS A MOTION OF 315/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nKEEPS KRISTY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS\r\nUNDERNEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nEASTERN PACIFIC...LEADING SOME MODELS TO EVEN SUGGEST A MORE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY COURSE.  OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN...FAVOR A\r\nFUJIWARA INTERACTION...WHEREBY KRISTY IS EVENTUALLY ABSORBED BY\r\nHURRICANE JOHN.  HOWEVER...THIS SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED BECAUSE THE\r\nMOTION FROM THESE MODELS IS INCORRECT AT THE INITIAL TIME.  THUS\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK IS A SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST AND THEN\r\nSOUTHWEST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...GIVEN THESE TWO DISTINCT\r\nPOSSIBILITIES.\r\n\r\nAVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY HAS LIKELY PEAKED. \r\nINCREASING EASTERLY WIND SHEAR RELATED TO THE OUTFLOW FROM\r\nHURRICANE JOHN...NOT TO MENTION COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND\r\nMORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR...ARE EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GENERAL\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE RAPID\r\nTHEREAFTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 19.3N 117.8W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 19.8N 118.6W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 20.4N 119.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 20.6N 120.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 20.6N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 20.0N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 19.5N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n \r\nA WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0109Z LOCATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY SOUTH\r\nOF 19N SO THE PREVIOUS TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.\r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS SHOWING AN\r\nINCREASE IN CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM\r\nLOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD MASS IS ALSO BECOMING LESS\r\nORGANIZED.  WHILE SHEARING IS NOT EVIDENT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS\r\nBECOMING DEFORMED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS.  KRISTY\r\nHAS APPARENTLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. \r\nCURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT AS A RESULT.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 65 KT WITH T-NUMBERS\r\nRANGING FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE T AND CI NUMBERS.\r\n \r\nA NORTHWEST MOTION CONTINUES AT 310/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.  A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AHEAD OF HURRICANE\r\nJOHN WILL TEND TO PUSH KRISTY SOUTHWESTWARD...IF IT MANAGES TO\r\nMAINTAIN A DEEP CIRCULATION...WHICH IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY.\r\nTHE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER 36-48 HOURS AND LACKING\r\nMUCH OF A CONSENSUS IN THE FORECAST AIDS WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK VERY SLOW IN THE DAY 3-5 TIME FRAME.\r\n \r\nCOOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN\r\nAND THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AT LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED\r\nTO CAUSE THE WEAKENING TREND NOW OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO\r\nCONTINUE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 19.3N 118.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 20.2N 120.1W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 20.2N 120.6W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n \r\nA 0959 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS ESTIMATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY A\r\nBIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. \r\nINFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS KRISTY IS IN A\r\nMODERATE TO STRONG DRY ENVIRONMENT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 50 KT...AND IS A BLEND OF THE DATA T-NUMBERS AND CI\r\nNUMBERS FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.  KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nITS WEAKENING TREND AND ENCOUNTER WATERS BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS\r\nIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THESE COOLER WATERS COMBINED WITH SOME\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN KRISTY TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS OR SO. \r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/5.  KRISTY IS IN A WEAK STEERING\r\nENVIRONMENT BETWEEN A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME\r\nINITIALIZING KRISTY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY AND THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION OF JOHN.  THE UKMET...GFS...GFD...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE\r\nTAKE JOHN SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST AND DISSIPATE IT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS REASONING...BUT\r\nSLOWER...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 19.3N 118.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 19.9N 118.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 20.2N 119.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 20.2N 120.3W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 120.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 19.5N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n \r\nSMALL TROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS GRADUALLY SPINNING DOWN. DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION\r\nAND T-NUMBERS HAVE CONTINUE TO DECREASE. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nLOWERED TO 45 KNOTS. KRISSY IS VERY NEAR A STABLE ENVIRONMENT SO A\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL WESTWARD\r\nDRIFT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE\r\nWEAK SO ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DRIFT IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR TO UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 19.2N 118.5W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 19.2N 118.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 19.2N 119.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.2N 119.3W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 19.2N 121.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT\r\nSMALL...INTERMITTENT...BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNDER INCREASING EAST TO\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF HURRICANE JOHN.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS OF 35 TO 45 KT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN\r\nFURTHER AND DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF\r\nDRYER AND STABLE AIR.   \r\n \r\nKRISTY IS DRIFTING WEST...WITHIN A WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC\r\nSTEERING ENVIRONMENT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND\r\nLARGE SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO INFLUENCE A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE\r\nNOGAPS CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN IMMEDIATE EASTWARD FUJIWARA CAPTURE\r\nAND ABSORPTION WITH JOHN.  THIS IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE FACT THAT\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONES DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SEEM TOO LARGE...AND\r\nFOR THE OBVIOUS REASON THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN DRIFTING GENERALLY\r\nWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nCONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...WITH A\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMMENCING IN 24\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 19.0N 119.1W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 18.9N 120.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 18.8N 120.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.6N 120.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n \r\nA QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0210Z CONFIRMED THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT AND THAT THE 34-KT WINDS IN THIS SMALL CYCLONE\r\nEXTEND ONLY ABOUT 40 NM FROM THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nWAS PRESENT AT THAT TIME...BUT A BURST HAS SINCE RESUMED IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  KRISTY REMAINS UNDER EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE JOHN.  THE INTENSITY IS\r\nKEPT AT 40 KT FOR NOW...BUT THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE ENOUGH TO\r\nREDUCE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND A REMNANT LOW IN LESS\r\nTHAN 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nKRISTY HAD BEEN LIMPING WESTWARD AT A COUPLE OF KNOTS...BUT DURING\r\nTHE PAST FEW HOURS IT APPEARS TO HAVE PULLED UP STATIONARY. \r\nSTEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...AND OVERALL THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nPROBABLY NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  FOR THOSE\r\nINTERESTED IN THE DETAILS...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ANTICIPATE\r\nA GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR\r\nSO...SEEMINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE JOHN LOCATED ABOUT\r\n600 NM TO THE NORTHEAST.  ONCE JOHN GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE...SOME\r\nLOW-LEVEL RIDGING MIGHT BUILD BACK IN TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY...AND\r\nMOST OF THE MODELS SHOW KRISTY AGAIN MOVING WESTWARD IN ABOUT THREE\r\nDAYS.  SINCE JOHN AND KRISTY WILL PROBABLY NOT GET ANY CLOSER\r\nTOGETHER THAN THEY ARE NOW...I AM UNCONVINCED THAT KRISTY WILL BE\r\nDRAWN AS FAR EASTWARD AS THE MODELS SUGGEST.  HOWEVER...THE NEW\r\nOFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES SHOW A SMALL U-TURN DURING THE NEXT 24\r\nHOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INSIGNIFICANT EASTWARD MOTION UNTIL THE\r\nEVENTUAL REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL 72 HOUR POSITION IS\r\nCOINCIDENTALLY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE GFDL...BUT WITHOUT THE\r\nBACK AND FORTH MOTION BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 19.0N 119.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 18.9N 119.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 18.7N 119.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 18.6N 118.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 18.5N 118.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 18.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15 CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n\r\n...CORRECTION TO REFLECT THE STATUS OF KRISTY IN THE FORECAST...  \r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY IS WEAKENING...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nNOW EXPOSED UNDER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CONVECTION\r\nPREVIOUSLY CONCENTRATED SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS ROTATED\r\nCYCLONICALLY TOWARD THE EAST AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INWARD WRAPPING\r\nHAS BEEN OBSERVED...WE EXPECT CONTINUED WEAKENING AND FORECAST\r\nDISSIPATION AT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nKRISTY IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND OUR\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR A FASTER AND MORE OPEN U TURN THAN IN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH DISSIPATION SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM'S\r\nCURRENT POSITION.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...SHALLOW BAM AND CONSENSUS\r\nALL PREDICT A FASTER U TURN IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE\r\nSOUTHEAST AND INCREASED WESTERLIES.  OUR SLOWER MOTION IS BASED ON\r\nFASTER DISSIPATION THAN IN THE MODELS...BUT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH\r\nTHE GFS SOLUTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 18.8N 118.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.6N 118.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 18.5N 118.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 18.3N 118.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 18.0N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n \r\nKRISTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE 02 SEP 1318Z QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS SHOWS THAT WHILE THE NCEP RETRIEVALS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION\r\nOPENING, THE FNMOC AND AMBIGUITY REVIEW SUPPORTS A CLOSED CENTER\r\nWITH A FEW 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS.  FURTHER, THE MASS OF\r\nCONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IS\r\nACCELERATING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700 MB\r\nWESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  VISIBLE AND INFRARED\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INTRUSION OF DRY, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER\r\nAIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER.  WHILE\r\nWE EXPECT KRISTY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AN AREA OF\r\nINTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAY RETARD THE DISSIPATION.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A MORE CONSISTENT SUTHEASTWARD\r\nDIRECTION AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS...OUR FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THE DYANMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS\r\nUNUSUAL EASTERWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH FASTER.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 18.3N 118.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.9N 117.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN LACKING\r\nPERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR CLOSE TO 18 HOURS.  THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE HAS SUCCUMBED TO STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRY STABLE AIR\r\nMASS...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 100/3...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE ON A GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION AND DISSIPATE IN\r\n48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE\r\nUKMET...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL SHOW A SHALLOW VORTEX MOVING\r\nWITHIN THE STEERING FLOW OF A RETROGRADING HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST OF\r\nKRISTY.  IF KRISTY HANGS ON AS A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW BEYOND\r\nTHE 48 HOUR PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SWIRL\r\nWILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE REESTABLISHING\r\nEASTERLY TRADE FLOW. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 18.3N 118.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 18.0N 117.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 17.6N 117.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 17.2N 116.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE KRISTY HAS\r\nMAINTAINED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH\r\nCONVECTION WRAPPING ABOUT 75 PERCENT AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nA 03/0144Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SEVERAL 40-45 KT\r\nRAIN-CONTAMINATED WIND VECTORS...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS 25-30 KT\r\nUNCONTAMINATED VECTORS...ON THE WEST SIDE OF KRISTY. BASED ON THIS\r\nINFORMATION...THE INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. HOWEVER\r\n...IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT KRISTY COULD BE A MINIMAL INTENSITY\r\nTROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/02. KRISTY REMAINS CAUGHT IN A\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM\r\nJOHN...WHICH IS SITUATED OVER CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND IS\r\nACTING TO NUDGE KRISTY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AS JOHN GRADUALLY\r\nMOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKENS...THE STEERING INFLUENCE BY THE\r\nTROUGH ON KRISTY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. BY 24-36 HOURS...A\r\nNARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM MEXICO\r\nBETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES...FORCING KRISTY OR ITS REMNANTS ON A MORE\r\nWESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT FOR THE ADDITION OF A 48-HOUR POSITION.\r\n \r\nTHE CURRENT MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE\r\nTO NEAR 30 KT DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...AND THEN WEAKEN TO LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT BY 96 HOURS...ASSUMING THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THAT LONG.\r\nKRISTY IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...\r\nWHICH WILL PLACE THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER 28C SSTS. THIS MAY ALLOW\r\nFOR SOME BRIEF REGENERATION OF DEEPER CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.\r\nIF KRISTY CAN SURVIVE THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL\r\nINTENSITY MODELS ACTUALLY RE-STRENGTHEN THE CYCLONE BACK INTO A\r\nWEAK TROPICAL STORM IN 36-48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 18.1N 118.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 17.9N 117.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 17.4N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 17.1N 117.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 17.2N 118.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n \r\nKRISTY CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN SHALLOW TO MODERATE DEPTH CONVECTION IN\r\nITS WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE PERSISTENCE OF CONVECTION...ALBEIT\r\nWEAK...AND GIVEN THE WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...WE WILL\r\nMAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE LATEST SHIPS INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS\r\nAND...WITH CONTINUED INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE AIR...THE TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST KRISTY COULD SURVIVE\r\nLONGER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n \r\nKRISTY IS MOVING AT 130/2. OUR TRACK FORECAST MAINTAINS THIS MOTION\r\nAND THEN TURNS KRISTY SOUTH AS THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TRAILING\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD FROM TROPICAL STORM JOHN WEAKENS.  THE REMNANTS OF\r\nKRISTY...IF NOT FULLY DISSIPATED AT 36 HOURS...THEN FOLLOWS THE\r\nEASTERLY TRADES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THE GFDL UKMET AND GFS MODELS WHICH ALL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE\r\nABOVE SCENARIO EXCEPT DIFFER IN TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 18.0N 117.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 17.7N 117.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 17.1N 117.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 17.1N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 17.6N 119.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n \r\nAN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED SINCE 1200Z WEST OF THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF CLOUD TOP\r\nTEMPERATURES BELOW -70 C. THE CURRENT MOTION OF 180/2 SIGNALS AN\r\nEARLIER-THAN-FORECAST TURN TO THE WEST AND SINCE THE CONVECTION IS\r\nMOVING OVER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION...WE EXPECT KRISTY TO MAINTAIN\r\nTROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT\r\nMOVES OVER COOLER WATER IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME FRAME. THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS BASED ON MODERATE SHEAR IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nGFDL MODEL.\r\n \r\nTHE WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF KRISTY IS FORECAST TO BUILD IN\r\nTHE NEXT THREE DAYS...INTENSIFYING THE TRADE EASTERLIES...AND\r\nDRIVING THE STORM TOWARD THE WEST. THE GFS GFDL UKMET ECMWF AND\r\nNOGAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SPEED WITH THE UKMET\r\nAND ECMWF SLOW AND GFDL AND GFS FAST. OUR TRACK MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS\r\nCONSENSUS BUT IS SHADED TOWARDS THE UKMET/ECMWF.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 17.7N 118.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 17.5N 118.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 17.3N 118.2W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 121.6W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 18.9N 126.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FIORINO/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006\r\n\r\nRECENT INFRARED IMAGERY OF KRISTY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE FLARE UP\r\nINDICATED IN THE EARLIER ADVISORY PACKAGE IS NOW DIMINISHING AS\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE -50 DEGREES CELSIUS OR LESS IN THE\r\nWESTERN QUADRANT.  PREVIOUS QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS AND RECENT\r\nNESDIS-CIRA AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES HOLD KRISTY AT MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION NUMBERS\r\nFROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES.  FOR THIS ADVISORY...KRISTY WILL REMAIN AT MINIMAL\r\nTROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BASED ON THE AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES...BUT\r\nKRISTY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 12\r\nHOURS.\r\n\r\nMOST INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES THAT KRISTY WILL REMAIN NEAR TROPICAL\r\nSTORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR OF 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM DURING THE EARLY\r\nPART OF THE FORECAST WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY POSSIBLE\r\nSTRENGTHENING...AND COULD BRING ABOUT WEAKENING.  LATER ON IN THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS\r\nAND IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND\r\nALSO FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL. \r\n\r\nTHE PRESENT MOTION OF KRISTY IS ESTIMATED AT 260/2 WHICH SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SYSTEM HAS FINALLY BEGAN TO SLIDE BACK TOWARD THE WEST. \r\nALL MODELS INDICATE A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITH KRISTY\r\nREMAINING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE.  THIS SCENARIO\r\nMOVES KRISTY BACK TOWARD THE WEST AT A SLOW PACE AND INCREASING\r\nEASTERLIES DURING THE MIDDLE TIME PERIOD WILL ACCELERATE THE\r\nCYCLONE IN A CONTINUED WESTWARD DIRECTION.  MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS PROJECTED TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS FAIRLY CLOSELY.  THIS IS\r\nALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 17.8N 118.4W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 17.8N 118.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 17.8N 119.4W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 18.0N 120.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 18.4N 122.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 19.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER SISKO/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nI REFUSE TO CLASSIFY KRISTY AS A TROPICAL STORM GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SWIRL OF LOW\r\nCLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS DO NOT EVEN\r\nJUSTIFY TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS. THERE IS STRONG EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER KRISTY AND WEAKENING IS INDICATED. AS IT IS COMMON IN\r\nTHESE SYSTEMS...CLUSTERS OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION COULD\r\nRE-DEVELOP.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION/REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD\r\nSTEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 17.5N 118.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 17.5N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 17.5N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 18.0N 124.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 19.0N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":23,"Date":"2006-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nKRISTY IS...AT BEST...A MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS HAS AGAIN GENERATED SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND\r\nJUST WEST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nARE T1.5...AND WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT.  EASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES...\r\nALTHOUGH IT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO.  HOWEVER...A STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD PREVENT ANY\r\nPROLONGED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...AND IF KRISTY FOLLOWS THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IT WILL REACH THE 26C ISOTHERM IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.\r\nBY RIGHTS...ONE BURST OF CONVECTION A DAY SHOULDN'T BE ENOUGH TO\r\nKEEP THIS SYSTEM CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...BUT I'D LIKE TO\r\nSEE THE PRESENT CONVECTION DISSIPATE BEFORE DECLARING KRISTY A\r\nREMNANT LOW...POSSIBLY THIS AFTERNOON.  \r\n \r\nTHE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...MORE WESTWARD WHILE THE CONVECTION IS\r\nACTIVE AND MORE SOUTHWARD WHEN IT IS NOT.  THE ADVISORY MOTION IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 250/7.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS RECENTLY BEEN TOO FAST\r\nTO THE WEST...PERHAPS GIVING THE SYSTEM CREDIT FOR MORE\r\nORGANIZATION THAN IT REALLY HAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER\r\nTHAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 16.7N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 16.6N 119.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.7N 121.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 16.9N 122.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.2N 125.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":24,"Date":"2006-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE WAS ANOTHER SMALL PUFF OF CONVECTION...SINCE DISSIPATED...\r\nEARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.  A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 14Z HAD A FEW\r\nBELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS...AND THAT WILL BE THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. \r\nOVERALL...KRISTY'S CIRCULATION LOOKS LESS VIGOROUS THAN 24 HOURS\r\nAGO...AND IT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN.  HOWEVER...THE RECENT\r\nCONVECTION MEANS WE WILL NEED TO WAIT A BIT LONGER BEFORE\r\nTERMINATING ADVISORIES.  \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/5.  TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN\r\nINCREASING WESTWARD MOTION...IN RESPONSE TO THE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nEASTERLIES...THAT KRISTY WITH ITS ANEMIC CONVECTION CONTINUES TO\r\nIGNORE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL REMAIN\r\nMOSTLY NON-CONVECTIVE AND INTERACT MINIMALLY WITH THE EASTERLIES. \r\nAS A RESULT...IT IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nBOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE RE-INTENSIFY THE CYCLONE TO A\r\nSTRONG TROPICAL STORM.  HOWEVER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE\r\nATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS HAVE BEEN LIMITING CONVECTION...AND I\r\nSEE NO REASON WHY THIS SHOULD NOT CONTINUE.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT\r\nA DECREASE IN EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG\r\nEASTERLIES UPSTREAM AND HEADED KRISTY'S WAY.  THE MOST LIKELY\r\nSCENARIO IS THAT KRISTY WILL DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW DURING THE\r\nNEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.    \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 16.2N 119.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.1N 120.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.1N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.2N 122.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.4N 123.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":25,"Date":"2006-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT MON SEP 04 2006\r\n \r\nKRISTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE\r\nLATEST BURST FIRING UP OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION JUST BEFORE 0000 UTC.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL\r\nREMAIN 30 KT...BASED ON EARLIER QUIKSCAT DATA AND A MORE RECENT\r\nDVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF 30 KT FROM TAFB.  \r\n\r\nMODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS KEPT CONVECTION FROM WRAPPING AROUND\r\nTHE CENTER.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECAST\r\nRESTRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM...BUT SEEING NO MAJOR CHANGE \r\nTO THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST \r\nWILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IF THE INTERMITTENT\r\nBURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE...KRISTY COULD REMAIN A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE A LITTLE LONGER THAN INDICATED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 235/4.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS\r\nVIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE MODELS PREDICT\r\nAN INCREASINGLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION SOUTH OF A BUILDING MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE.  THIS FASTER MOTION SEEMS UNLIKELY UNLESS KRISTY\r\nCAN REGENERATE INTO A DEEPER SYSTEM.  SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nPRESUMES THAT KRISTY WILL NOT...IT REMAINS MUCH SLOWER THAN ALMOST\r\nALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 16.2N 119.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.1N 120.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.1N 121.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 16.2N 123.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 16.4N 124.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":26,"Date":"2006-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF TENACIOUS KRISTY.\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS \r\nAT 30 KNOTS AND A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE\r\nMOVES TOWARD A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE IS MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...270/6 AND IT IS\r\nLOCATED SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING RIDGE. THEREFORE...A GENERAL WESTWARD\r\nTRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 16.2N 120.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 16.2N 121.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 16.5N 125.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 17.0N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 17.0N 130.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":27,"Date":"2006-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n\r\nJUST WHEN WE THINK THAT KRISTY IS DONE FOR... A STRONG BURST OF\r\nCONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS NOW SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... AND\r\nKRISTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM... AGAIN.  THE\r\nSYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE SURVIVED THE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR...\r\nRELAXING SOMEWHAT DUE TO AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE\r\nEAST... BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM IS PRETTY\r\nMARGINAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  A STABLE STRATOCUMULUS\r\nCLOUD LAYER IS TRYING TO WRAP INTO THE STORM'S CIRCULATION AND\r\nSHIPS DIAGNOSES RATHER DRY CONDITIONS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS\r\nBEYOND 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER... SSTS STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 26C FOR THE\r\nPERIOD... AND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  THEREFORE... KRISTY ISN'T EXPECT TO FLOURISH BUT...\r\nUNFORTUNATELY... DISSIPATION IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED.  GLOBAL\r\nMODELS GENERALLY HOLD ON TO THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT 5 DAYS... AND SO\r\nDOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 275/7.  A\r\nDEVELOPING RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD PUSH KRISTY WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A FASTER RATE FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER... THE RIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE\r\nSTORM TO FOLLOW A WESTWARD COURSE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN\r\nPREVIOUS.. BUT NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 16.4N 121.5W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.7N 123.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 17.1N 125.1W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 17.5N 128.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 17.5N 131.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 17.5N 134.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 17.5N 137.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":28,"Date":"2006-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n\r\nTHE EARLIER BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR KRISTY HAVE MORPHED INTO\r\nBANDS... GIVING THE IMPRESSION OF AN INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nTHE CENTER APPEARS TO BE ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF TWO HOOKING-TYPE\r\nBANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE INCREASING... AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT.  THIS MIGHT BE A CONSERVATIVE\r\nFIGURE IF THE CENTER IS A LITTLE MORE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION\r\nTHAN WE THINK.  THE INTENSITY EVOLUTION FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE\r\nDAYS APPEARS TO BE A BATTLE BETWEEN SLOWLY DECREASING SSTS...\r\nSTABLE AIR ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT WIND SHEAR.  GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE... A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION\r\nSEEMS LIKELY... AT LEAST IN THE SHORT-TERM.  THE SHIPS MODEL HAS\r\nTHIS GENERAL IDEA AND WAS THE MAIN TOOL FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST. \r\nIT IS WORTH NOTING THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS\r\nFORECAST DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF KRISTY.  SMALL SYSTEMS ARE\r\nSOMEWHAT NOTORIOUS FOR THEIR RAPID CHANGES IN INTENSITY THAT ARE\r\nDIFFICULT TO FORECAST.  \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE WEST... 280/10...\r\nTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOTION IS EVEN FASTER.  THERE IS NO CHANGE\r\nTO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MIDDLE-\r\nTROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD STEER KRISTY WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER... THE\r\nRIDGE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE... CAUSING THE STORM TO HEAD\r\nGENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT A SMIDGE TO THE NORTH TO\r\nACCOUNT FOR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANGES IN\r\nCONVECTION... THEN MODIFIED TO ADJUST FOR TYPICAL MOTION\r\nASYMMETRIES.    \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 16.7N 122.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 17.1N 124.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 17.5N 126.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 17.7N 128.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 17.7N 129.6W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.7N 132.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 17.7N 135.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 138.0W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":29,"Date":"2006-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE SEP 05 2006\r\n\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR ABATED SOMEWHAT OVER KRISTY AND IT APPEARED THAT THE\r\nCENTER HAD BECOME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. \r\nHOWEVER RECENT IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO NORTHERN \r\nEDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  THE EXTENT AND DEPTH OF THE CONVECTION\r\nHAS DIMINISHED...AND THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE\r\nVARIOUS AGENCIES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO 35 KT.  THIS IS PROBABLY\r\nJUST ANOTHER ONE OF KRISTY'S INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...AND SOME\r\nRE-STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN AN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK SHEAR AND\r\nMARGINAL SST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  LATE IN THE\r\nPERIOD...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME MORE HOSTILE DUE TO AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF\r\nKRISTY AROUND 120 HOURS...AND THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN\r\nMORE THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nMY INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nCLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR AN EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY IS\r\nPREDICTED TO WEAKEN AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nJUST SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BUT\r\nSOUTH OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE GFS MOVES KRISTY SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nFASTER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS PROBABLY\r\nBASED ON NEAR-SURFACE STEERING WINDS FOR A VERY WEAK SYSTEM.  WHILE\r\nTHIS MAY TURN OUT TO BE THE CORRECT SOLUTION...IT IS PREFERABLE TO\r\nMAINTAIN MORE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND TO BE\r\nCLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 17.1N 123.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 17.4N 125.5W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 17.8N 127.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 18.0N 129.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 130.7W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 133.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 18.5N 136.5W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N 139.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":30,"Date":"2006-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KRISTY HAS SHOWN A MARKED DECREASE THIS\r\nMORNING...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -60C IN A\r\nBAND WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND\r\nTHERE WAS A 47 KT AMSU ESTIMATE AT 0153 UTC.  GIVEN THE DECREASING\r\nCONVECTION IT IS TEMPTING TO DOWNGRADE KRISTY TO A DEPRESSION...BUT\r\nTHAT SHOULD PROBABLY WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THE\r\nCONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK.  THUS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nREMAINS 35 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/12...AND THE MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS MAY BE A BIT FASTER.  KRISTY IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST WILL WEAKEN\r\nDURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nDEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP\r\nKRISTY MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD WITH A\r\nGRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  ALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES\r\nWITH THIS SCENARIO...SAVE FOR THE BAMD AND LBAR WHICH TURN KRISTY\r\nNORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKENING RIDGE.  SINCE IT APPEARS UNLIKELY\r\nTHAT KRISTY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE SUCH A TURN...THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE BALANCE OF THE GUIDANCE WESTWARD.  THE\r\nNEW TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS ALL CALL FOR KRISTY\r\nTO MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OR EVEN INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 HR.  GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND\r\nMARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 26C...THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE\r\nOPTIMISTIC.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE CONVECTION\r\nWILL RETURN AND CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOR 24 HR OR SO TO\r\n40 KT...LESS THAN THE GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  AFTER 72\r\nHR...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE KRISTY TO WEAKEN AND\r\nEVENTUALLY DISSIPATE.  IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT COME BACK IN THE\r\nNEXT 6-12 HR...THEN KRISTY COULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO INSTEAD OF STRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 17.3N 125.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 17.7N 127.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 18.1N 129.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.2N 130.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 18.2N 132.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 18.5N 135.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 19.0N 141.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Kristy","Adv":31,"Date":"2006-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  31\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING...AND BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPMENT TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST.  ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED\r\nTO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT\r\n35 KT BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE TREND. THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH THE INTENSITY\r\nMODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE CHANGE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  BEYOND DAY 3...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE A WEAKENING TREND\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITH A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND A\r\n0208Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE\r\nLOW TO MID LAYER EASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WITH\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 5.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TO THE LEFT AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTHROUGH DAY 3.  THEN...THE FORECAST FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE\r\nUKMET/GFDL AND NOGAPS...WHICH ARE THE ONLY REMAINING MODELS THAT\r\nDEPICT A CLOSED CIRCULATION THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 17.0N 126.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.5N 128.9W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N 131.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.0N 133.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 18.0N 134.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.0N 138.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 141.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 18.0N 143.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":32,"Date":"2006-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPARSE DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED\r\nEARLIER THIS MORNING...NEAR THE CENTER AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST\r\nPERIPHERY...HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY. APPARENTLY...ENTRAINMENT\r\nOF THE DRY STABLE AIR MASS FROM THE NORTHWEST IS THE MAIN\r\nCONTRIBUTOR TO THE WEAKENING TREND BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE\r\nWATER IS STILL WARM. CONSEQUENTLY...BASED ON THE LACK OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY THE UNCLASSIFIABLE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND AN EARLIER 0208Z QUIKSCAT\r\nAMBIGUITY SOLUTION THAT INDICATED SURFACE WINDS NO GREATER THAN 33\r\nKT...KRISTY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nLITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 3\r\nDAYS...ALTHOUGH A SIGNIFICANT DIURNAL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nCOULD TEMPORARILY BRING KRISTY BACK UP TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.\r\nTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND COOLER WATER SHOULD INDUCE FURTHER\r\nWEAKENING...ULTIMATELY TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 270/12...WITHIN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC\r\nEASTERLY FLOW OF A RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nPHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED\r\nON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 16.5N 127.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 16.6N 129.8W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 16.8N 131.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 16.8N 134.1W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.9N 135.8W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 17.0N 139.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 17.0N 142.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 17.0N 144.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":33,"Date":"2006-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 06 2006\r\n\r\nKRISTY IS PRODUCING ONLY A FEW ISOLATED CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION AT\r\nTHIS TIME AS IT MOVES INTO A RATHER STABLE AIR MASS.  THE SYSTEM\r\nWILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE OCEAN WATERS JUST WARM ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN\r\nA TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO\r\nBECOME VERY STRONG...DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM IN ITS PRESENT STATE FOR\r\nSEVERAL DAYS.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT KRISTY COULD\r\nEVEN RE-STRENGTHEN.  GIVEN THE TENACIOUS NATURE OF THIS TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...THAT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISING TURN OF EVENTS.\r\nALTERNATIVELY...HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS VIRTUALLY DEVOID OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO IT WOULD DISSIPATE MUCH\r\nSOONER THAN INDICATED HERE.\r\n\r\nTHE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED JUST A TAD...TO 10 OR 11 KT.  A\r\nWEAKENING MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF KRISTY SHOULD\r\nMAINTAIN A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER BECAUSE\r\nOF THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER INITIAL FORWARD SPEED.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 16.5N 128.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 16.6N 130.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.7N 132.5W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 16.9N 136.2W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 139.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 17.0N 142.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 145.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":34,"Date":"2006-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nKRISTY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH\r\nNO REAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n25 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO\r\n25 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR\r\n19N132W MAY BE PRODUCING SOME SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/9...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN 6 HR AGO.  KRISTY\r\nIS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD\r\nPERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST KRISTY TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT\r\n5 DAYS AT A FAIRLY SLOW SPEED...WITH THE NOGAPS CALLING FOR THE\r\nCYCLONE TO STALL NEAR 16N132W AFTER 24 HR.  THAT IS PROBABLY TOO\r\nSLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR KRISTY TO MOVE WESTWARD FOR\r\n96 HR JUST NORTH OF AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS MODELS. \r\nAFTER THAT...IT CALLS FOR A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nKRISTY REMAINS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 26-27C...AND THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO STAY LIGHT FOR 48-60 HR.  THIS SUGGESTS THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY OF KRISTY STRENGTHENING BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AS\r\nFORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nLIMITED CONVECTION AND ENTRAINMENT OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS\r\nINTO THE CIRCULATION ARGUES AGAINST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO REFLECT THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THE CONVECTION WILL RETURN.  HOWEVER...AN ALTERNATE\r\nFORECAST SCENARIO HAS KRISTY BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 12-24 HR IF\r\nTHE CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN.  EVEN IF STRENGTHENING DOES\r\nOCCUR...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 60 HR RESULTING IN EVENTUAL\r\nDISSIPATION BY 120 HR.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 16.5N 129.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 131.0W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 16.5N 132.7W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 16.5N 134.3W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 16.5N 135.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 16.5N 138.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 16.5N 141.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z 16.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":35,"Date":"2006-09-07 15:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS MORNING...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -70C\r\nJUST TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE\r\nTHERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT KRISTY HAS BEEN MOVING INTO DURING THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN\r\nDEPRESSION STRENGTH...AND COULD POSSIBLY RE-INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS\r\nSUGGEST.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CARBON COPY OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH A WEAKENING TREND TO A REMNANT LOW LATE\r\nIN THE PERIOD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/7...WITHIN EASTERLY FLOW OF A LOW TO MID\r\nLEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE\r\nGFS SHALLOW BAM SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF THE STEERING CURRENT AROUND\r\nMID PERIOD AS THE HIGH TEMPORARILY RETROGRADES TO A POSITION NORTH\r\nOF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY DAY 3.  THEREAFTER....MODELS BUILD THE\r\nRIDGE BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE\r\nNHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nAROUND 36-48 HR PERIOD THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH DAY 5.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/1500Z 16.4N 130.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 131.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/1200Z 16.4N 133.0W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     09/0000Z 16.4N 134.4W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     09/1200Z 16.4N 135.9W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     10/1200Z 16.5N 139.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     11/1200Z 16.5N 142.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     12/1200Z 16.5N 145.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":36,"Date":"2006-09-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nA 1428Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LIMITED AND\r\nINTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING\r\nTHE PAST 24 HOURS BARELY SUPPORT A 25 KT TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nCONSEQUENTLY...KRISTY COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE\r\nHOSTILE STABLE AIR ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE...LITTLE...IF\r\nANY...CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNTIL KRISTY\r\nBECOMES A REMNANT LOW...WHICH COULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/5...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST.  KRISTY SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE\r\nNORTH...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nA CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE GFS AND\r\nEUROPEAN MODELS...WHICH PREDICTED THE PAST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nSLOWER...ERRATIC...24 HOUR MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/2100Z 15.9N 130.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N 131.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.7N 132.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/0600Z 15.6N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     10/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Kristy","Adv":37,"Date":"2006-09-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP122006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2006\r\n \r\nONE COULD ARGUE THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN UNABLE TO SUSTAIN ANY ORGANIZED\r\nDEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST 36 TO 48 HOURS...SO ITS LIFE AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS PROBABLY...IF NOT ALREADY...COMING TO AN END.\r\nINTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CELLS HAVE BEEN FORMING WITHIN THE\r\nCIRCULATION AND ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVEN\r\nAS THE SYSTEM WINDS DOWN.\r\n \r\nKRISTY HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF 245/9 AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHEAST\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN STRONGER\r\nTRADES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN ORDER TO INCORPORATE THE RECENT MOTION...\r\nWHICH IS SOUTH OF NEARLY ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.  KRISTY IS\r\nEXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TAKE ON A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN 24 HOURS\r\nAND COULD DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH BY DAY 3.\r\n \r\nASSUMING KRISTY HAS NO MORE SURPRISES UP ITS SLEEVE...THIS WILL BE\r\nTHE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      08/0300Z 15.4N 131.3W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.1N 132.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.0N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     09/1200Z 15.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     10/0000Z 15.0N 136.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BERG/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-09-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nSOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS GOTTEN BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.\r\nBANDING FEATURES ARE BECOMING MORE DEFINED ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER AND RADAR FROM ACAPULCO SHOWS A BROAD ROTATION WITHIN THESE\r\nBANDS.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 30 KT... AND THIS\r\nIS THE INITIALLY INTENSITY.  SHIP V2HZ REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT...\r\nBUT THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CIRCULATION AS A\r\nWHOLE.  HOWEVER IT DOES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A RELATIVELY\r\nLARGE WIND FIELD... AND REQUIRES THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM\r\nWARNINGS FOR SOUTHWEST MEXICO.\r\n \r\nWATERS OFFSHORE OF MEXICO ARE QUITE WARM... AND... COMBINED WITH\r\nLIGHT SHEAR FORECAST... INTENSIFICATION COULD BE RAPID.  SHIPS\r\nSUGGESTS THERE IS ABOUT A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF A 25 KT OR MORE\r\nMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...\r\nTHE GFDL HAS A MUCH SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE... WHICH SEEMS A\r\nLITTLE SUSPECT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN SHIPS... IN DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL.\r\n \r\nTHE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 305/10.\r\nMIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE\r\nDEPRESSION TO THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN MOST GUIDANCE\r\nIN THE SHORT-TERM ACCOUNTING FOR THE INITIAL MOTION. THE FORECAST\r\nBEYOND 72 HOURS DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.\r\nTHE UKMET SEEMS TO MOVE THE SYSTEM MUCH TOO FAR TO THE NORTH GIVEN\r\nTHE RIDGING OVER MEXICO WHILE THE GFS IS SEEMINGLY UNAFFECTED BY\r\nTHE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE... AND IS JUST A LITTLE NORTH OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 16.0N 101.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 16.8N 102.8W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 17.6N 104.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 106.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 18.9N 107.3W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Thirteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-09-14 03:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 PM PDT WED SEP 13 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY\r\nBECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND\r\nA LARGE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...T-NUMBERS DO NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL\r\nSTORM INTENSITY YET. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT\r\n9 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT IS CURRENTLY\r\nPARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS\r\nAND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST. AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4\r\nDAYS. A NORTHWESTWARD TURN IS ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.\r\nBY THEN...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE WELL TO WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nREACHING COOLER WATERS.\r\n\r\nGIVEN THE CURRENT TRACK...NO CHANGES IN THE WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR\r\nMEXICO ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 16.6N 102.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.3N 103.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 18.0N 105.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.8N 106.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 108.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 110.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 113.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-09-14 09:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BECOME\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED WITH INCREASING BANDING NOTED TO THE WEST. BASED\r\nON THIS TREND AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nUW CIMSS ADT...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\nLANE APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING A LITTLE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS\r\nEVIDENCED BY THE OVERALL CLOUD MASS FAVORED TO THE WEST OF THE\r\nCENTER. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL FORM OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO PRODUCING A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS ENVIRONMENT COUPLED WITH\r\nA WARM UNDERLYING OCEAN SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. IN\r\nFACT...THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 46% PROBABILITY OF RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY BELOW THIS RATE GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEARED APPEARANCE IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE INTENSITY\r\nIS PROBLEMATIC. SHOULD LANE TRACK OVER OR WEST OF BAJA...COOLER\r\nWATERS AND LAND INTERACTION WOULD FAVOR WEAKENING. IF LANE TAKES A\r\nMORE EASTWARD MOTION...AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AND UKMET\r\nMODELS...THE CYCLONE COULD POTENTIALLY BE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF\r\nTHE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY. \r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/9...AROUND\r\nTHE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS WITH LANE FORECAST TO PARALLEL THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST\r\nOF MEXICO. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nAMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...PRODUCING A\r\nBREAK IN THE RIDGE AND ALLOWING LANE TO TURN INCREASINGLY\r\nNORTHWARD.  THIS PATTERN HAS RESULTED IN A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD\r\nSHIFT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE REQUIRING A LARGER THAN NORMAL\r\nADJUSTMENT TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST INDICATES AN\r\nINCREASED THREAT TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH PERFORMED VERY WELL\r\nDURING HURRICANE JOHN...IS THE EASTERNMOST DYNAMICAL MODEL AND IS\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY EAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  INDEED...GLOBAL MODELS\r\nOFTEN STRUGGLE IN SITUATIONS WHERE CYCLONES ARE NEAR THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO...AND ADDITIONAL EASTWARD ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN\r\nSUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE TRACK BECOMES\r\nINCREASINGLY UNCERTAIN. IF LANE MAINTAINS VERTICAL DEPTH...IT COULD\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY\r\nFLOW.  A WEAKER AND MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE WOULD TEND TO CONTINUE\r\nNORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A NORTHWARD\r\nMOTION...ALBEIT IT VERY SLOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 16.9N 102.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 17.3N 103.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 18.1N 105.1W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N 106.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 20.0N 107.7W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 111.0W    70 KT...NEAR BAJA PENINSULA\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 25.5N 111.5W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-09-14 15:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 AM PDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A\r\nFORMATIVE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTION\r\nOVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE\r\n45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND THIS MIGHT BE A LITTLE\r\nCONSERVATIVE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nAND POOR TO FAIR ELSEWHERE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/11...A LITTLE FASTER\r\nTHAN EARLIER.  LANE IN ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE\r\nCAUSED BY A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS TROUGH TO MOVE\r\nEASTWARD...WITH A SECOND TROUGH MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS LANE\r\nBY 120 HR.  TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT\r\nLANE WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR 72 HR...FOLLOWED BY A\r\nGRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT\r\nSLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BRINGING LANE PARALLEL\r\nTO THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR 24 HR AND NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nPENINSULA FROM 72-120 HR.  IT IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA\r\nSTATE SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nLANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES OF 29-30C...AND IS PRODUCING CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER THAN\r\n-80C.  THESE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH THE ONLY OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTOR BEING THAT\r\nTHE INFLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE MOUNTAINS\r\nOF WESTERN MEXICO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LANE TO BECOME\r\nA HURRICANE IN 24 HR AND REACH 75 KT AS IT NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA IN\r\nBEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE RAPID\r\nINTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 55 PERCENT CHANCE\r\nOF RAPID INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...SO LANE COULD BE\r\nSTRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AS IT APPROACHES BAJA.  THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST FROM 72-120 HR IS BASED ON LANE MOVING OVER\r\nBAJA...AND THE INTENSITY WILL BE DIFFERENT IF THE CENTER MOVES OVER\r\nEITHER THE PACIFIC OR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n\r\nWHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE UNTIL LANE\r\nAPPROACHES BAJA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS WILL\r\nCONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 17.5N 104.3W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 18.2N 105.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 19.0N 106.6W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 19.9N 107.6W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 20.9N 108.6W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.0N 110.0W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 26.5N 112.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-09-14 21:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n \r\nA MICROWAVE PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SHOWED A FORMATIVE EYEWALL...\r\nAND BOTH CORE AND OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE INCREASED SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 55 AND\r\n45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO\r\n50 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL HARD TO GAUGE. THE MICROWAVE PASS THIS\r\nMORNING GAVE A POSITION A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A MORE\r\nWESTWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/12. LANE IS ON\r\nTHE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES...AND THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AT SOME\r\nPOINT.  THERE HAS BEEN A CONSIDERABLE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE...AND AT THE MOMENT THERE IS NO SERIOUS GUIDANCE WITH A\r\nTRACK WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE GFDL IS THE RIGHT-MOST\r\nOUTLIER...WITH AN IMMEDIATE NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE\r\nHURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES.  GIVEN\r\nTHE MORE WESTWARD PRESENT MOTION...A HURRICANE WATCH STILL SEEMS\r\nMORE APPROPRIATE THAN A HURRICANE WARNING AT THIS TIME.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NOGAPS MODEL.\r\nTOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GFS AND THE BAMS SHOW A\r\nSHARP RECURVATURE INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  I AM NOT READY TO MAKE\r\nTHAT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IN THE LATER\r\nPERIODS IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET SOLUTION OF LINGERING LANE IN THE\r\nGULF OF CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nLARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER LANE.\r\nWATER TEMPERATURES ARE ALMOST 30C AND THE SHEAR IS LIGHT.  THE\r\nSHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX REMAINS VERY AGRESSIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IS THE SHIPS MODEL\r\nITSELF.  THE GFDL IS NOT USEFUL SINCE IT TAKES LANE OVER LAND IN\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS.  CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE\r\nINTENSITY WILL DEPEND PRIMARILY ON HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION THERE\r\nIS.\r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 17.9N 105.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.8N 106.2W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.1N 107.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 21.3N 108.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 22.3N 109.3W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 24.5N 110.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 26.0N 111.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-09-15 03:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006\r\n\r\nA 0024Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE\r\nFEATURE...AND THAT LANE HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING\r\nTHE PAST 6 HOURS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB\r\nREMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nIS SET AT 50 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE\r\nSHIPS...WHICH DOES NOT WEAKEN LANE AS RAPIDLY AS THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES.  CONDITIONS REMAIN RIPE FOR RAPID\r\nSTRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IF LAND INTERACTION DOES NOT\r\nOCCUR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/5...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A BIT SLOWER.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS\r\nMOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS\r\nDIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD\r\nREINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE\r\nMORE NORTHWARD...AROUND MID PERIOD.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INDICATE\r\nAN ABRUPT NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH\r\nAREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 18.4N 105.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W    85 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W    70 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W    65 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W    55 KT...OVER WATER \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-09-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH A BAND OF\r\nVERY STRONG CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND\r\nTHE ESTIMATED CENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...TWO EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES\r\nINDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB\r\nRESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON THE\r\nHIGHER OF THESE TWO ESTIMATES GIVEN THE APPARENT BANDING EYE IN\r\nMICROWAVE IMAGERY. \r\n \r\nLOCATING THE CENTER OF LANE WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nCONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST.  HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO\r\nMICROWAVE PASSES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/12.  LANE\r\nIS BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nANCHORED OVER MEXICO.  AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING LANE\r\nINTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.  THEREAFTER...LANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE\r\nOF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. \r\nWHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS LARGE-SCALE\r\nPATTERN...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH LAND\r\nINTERACTION WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE.  IF LANE INTERACTS WITH\r\nLAND MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...A WEAKER CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY NOT TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD.  CONVERSELY...IF LANE REMAINS VERTICALLY\r\nCOHERENT...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE\r\nDEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  SINCE THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK\r\nINTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SUBTLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS\r\nINTRODUCED AT DAY 5 TAKING THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.   \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY. IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...LANE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF\r\nMEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO\r\nREMAIN OFFSHORE...SUCH A CLOSE APPROACH TO LAND MAKES ASSESSING\r\nPOSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS DIFFICULT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES\r\nLANE WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF\r\nAN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.\r\nACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LANE BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE THREADING THE NEEDLE BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE A TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT\r\nFORECAST WOULD CAUSE LAND INTERACTION...SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY DAY 4...AT\r\nWHICH TIME RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BE\r\nNOTED THAT LANE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM...AND RAPID INTENSITY\r\nFLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN...ARE POSSIBLE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 19.1N 106.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N 106.8W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 21.9N 107.8W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 23.2N 108.9W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 24.5N 109.4W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 28.0N 109.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-09-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nLANE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CENTRAL\r\nDENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND A LARGE OUTER BAND\r\nOVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1226 UTC\r\nSUGGESTS THAT A SMALL EYE MAY BE PRESENT UNDER THE CDO.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 35\r\nKT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT...AND\r\nTHERE IS A CHANCE LANE IS ALREADY A HURRICANE.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW\r\nIS CURRENTLY GOOD TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...AND FAIR TO THE EAST AND\r\nWEST.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED\r\nTO INVESTIGATE LANE AROUND 18Z.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND SLOWER THAN\r\nEARLIER.  LANE IS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND IS\r\nMOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH\r\nTHE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nU. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE\r\nMEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS WOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA\r\nOF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED\r\nAROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nFOR 36-48 HR...THEN STARTS TO DIVERGE BETWEEN A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED DOWN TO 3 KT AFTER 48 HR\r\nIN RESPONSE TO THE GUIDANCE SPREAD AND THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THE\r\nTRACK IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...\r\nBRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MAINLAND COAST OF MEXICO BY 72 HR.\r\n \r\nLANE IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 30C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AS LONG\r\nAS THE CIRCULATION IS NOT TOO TANGLES UP WITH LAND.  INDEED...THE\r\nRAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL HAS A 43 PRESENT\r\nCHANCE OF RAPID STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK BRINGS LANE UP THE CENTER OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA\r\nTHROUGH 72 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR MORE\r\nSTRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HR AND LESS WEAKENING THEREAFTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS\r\nAND GFDL MODELS.  THERE IS TWO SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS\r\nFORECAST.  THE FIRST IS THAT LANE HAS A SMALL CENTRAL CORE...AND\r\nCOULD BOTH STRENGTHEN AND WEAKEN FASTER THEN EXPECTED.  THE SECOND\r\nIS THE POSSIBILITY OF LAND INTERACTION...AS THE INTENSITY COULD\r\nWELL BE LESS THAN FORECAST IF LANE VEERS OFF THE FORECAST TRACK.\r\n\r\nIF LANE FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD\r\nREMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR CABO CORRIENTES. \r\nHOWEVER...A DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING\r\nHURRICANE CONDITIONS ONSHORE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 19.7N 106.2W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 20.9N 107.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 22.3N 108.0W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 23.4N 108.8W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.3N 109.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 25.5N 109.0W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 26.5N 109.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 28.0N 108.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-09-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE\r\nTHAT LANE HAS BECOME A HURRICANE.  THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THE\r\nPRESSURE FELL FROM 989 TO 985 MB IN ABOUT 90 MIN...ALONG WITH\r\nMAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 76 KT IN THE NORTHEAST\r\nEYEWALL.  THE EYE...WHICH IS MAKING OCCASIONAL APPEARANCES IN\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY...IS 8-9 N MI WIDE.  BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 70 KT.  THIS SPLITS THE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB\r\nAND 65 KT FROM SAB.\r\n\r\nLANE HAS TURNED RIGHT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 340/8.  THIS TURN WAS NOT WELL FORECAST BY THE\r\nPREVIOUS GUIDANCE.  LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE\r\nMODELS SUGGEST THAT THE U. S. TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD IN THE\r\nNEXT 72 HR AND ALLOW THE MEXICAN RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS\r\nWOULD LEAVE LANE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR 36 HR...THEN DIVERGES BETWEEN A TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. \r\nTHE GFDL IS TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE...\r\nBRINGING THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST IN 30 HR.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND\r\nCONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH\r\nGRADUAL DECELERATION.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF \r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL ON THE MEXICAN MAINLAND\r\nIN 60-72 HR.  HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION TO THE RIGHT OF THE\r\nTRACK ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFDL WOULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE\r\nCOAST EARLIER.\r\n\r\nIF LANE WERE WELL AWAY FROM LAND...IT WOULD LIKELY BECOME A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE DUE TO LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES NEAR 30 CELSIUS...AND THE SMALL EYE STRUCTURE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MAIN OUTER BAND IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS A\r\nSIGNIFICANT PART OF THE OUTER CIRCULATION OVER LAND.  BASED ON\r\nCURRENT TRENDS AND THE SMALL EYE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR\r\nLAND TO REACH 95 KT IN 36 HR BEFORE INCREASING LAND INTERACTION\r\nSTOPS INTENSIFICATION.  THIS IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST BY SHIPS AND\r\nTHE GFDL...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDN.  ANY MOTION\r\nCLOSER TO THE COAST WOULD INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF CIRCULATION ON\r\nLAND AND WOULD LIKELY SLOW INTENSIFICATION.  THIS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 20.6N 106.3W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 21.8N 106.8W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 23.1N 107.6W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 24.0N 108.3W    95 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 24.7N 108.6W    95 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 26.0N 108.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 27.0N 108.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 28.5N 108.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-09-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 PM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE RADAR PRESENTATION FROM LOS\r\nCABOS MEXICO...AND EARLIER MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT THAT LANE\r\nHAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED INTO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE.  ENHANCED\r\nINFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS INNER CORE CLOUD TOPS OF -80C SURROUNDING\r\nTHE SMALL 9 N MI EYE.  THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE EYEWALL IS\r\nCURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE ISLA MARIAS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nAND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE RAW T-NUMBERS SUPPORT AN INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY INCREASE TO 90 KT.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE AND IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC\r\nPATTERN OVER LANE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CURRENT EYEWALL\r\nSTRUCTURE TRENDS...AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR\r\n30C...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER INTO A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING AFTER\r\nLANDFALL BEYOND THE 48 HOUR PERIOD...AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH\r\nSIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 340/10...SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST.  LANE REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY\r\nMOVING EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nCONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN FORWARD MOTION IN 12\r\nHOURS AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FARTHER INLAND...ALLOWING THE\r\nRIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD.  AROUND THE 48\r\nHOUR PERIOD...THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nBECOME STATIONARY JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nBEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.  THE NOGAPS\r\nINDICATES INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE LOCATED WELL TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF LANE WHICH CAUSES THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA...CONTINUING OFF OF THE\r\nWEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA AND DISSIPATING IN 96 HOURS.  THIS\r\nSEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE UNREASONABLE SIZE MID-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF\r\nTHE DISTURBANCE IN THE FIELDS.  THE GFDL AND THE GFS AND THE\r\nENSEMBLE MEAN SUGGEST AN EARLIER LANDFALL EVENT IN 24 HOURS JUST\r\nEAST OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN\r\nTHE GFDL AND THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE AND CONSENSUS MODELS...BRINGING\r\nLANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WITH GRADUAL DECELERATION.\r\n \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE\r\nAND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH CALLS FOR\r\nLANDFALL NEAR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL MOTION\r\nTO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL/GFS SOLUTION WOULD\r\nBRING LANE TO THE COAST EARLIER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 21.7N 106.8W    90 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 23.0N 107.3W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 23.6N 107.7W   110 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 24.3N 108.3W   110 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 25.2N 108.5W   110 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 26.5N 108.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 27.7N 108.3W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 29.2N 107.7W    20 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-09-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nLANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE IS BECOMING\r\nMORE DISTINCT IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE NOW 102 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE\r\nEXPERIMENTAL UW CIMSS ADT IS 105 KT.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT...MAKING LANE THE FIFTH MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE OF THE 2006 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. \r\n \r\nLANE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/09. \r\nTHE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...\r\nWITH THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE\r\nMOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY\r\nLIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...THEY DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE\r\nRIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST NORTH OF\r\nLANE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE AND WHEN\r\nLANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE\r\nECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALLOW JUST ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF\r\nLANE TO PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER\r\nTHE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL\r\nFORECASTS LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF LANE RESULTING IN AN ALMOST\r\nDUE NORTH TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.\r\nGIVEN THE GFDL'S RELIABLE PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS\r\nHURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFDL\r\nSOLUTION.  THIS RESULTS IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST...TAKING LANE INLAND OVER MEXICO IN 12-18 HOURS. ONCE\r\nINLAND...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE\r\nINTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER MEXICO.  THE\r\nDEEP LAYER STEERING WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE A NORTHEAST TURN BEYOND\r\n24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE COULD CROSS THE\r\nVERY HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL\r\nMOUNTAINS.  A MORE PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME\r\nDECOUPLED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING NORTHEAST\r\nWHILE THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION PARALLELS THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF\r\nTHE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE LANE MOVES INLAND. \r\n \r\nAS LONG AS LANE REMAINS OVER WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nREMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW APPEARS THE BE CLOSING AS\r\nTHE CYCLONE NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS\r\nBEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...AND LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED\r\nSOONER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BEYOND 12\r\nHOURS. ONCE INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE\r\nCYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT\r\n72 HOURS. IF LANE WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nAND REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 22.7N 107.0W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 24.0N 107.1W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 25.1N 107.5W    85 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 26.2N 107.9W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 27.3N 108.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 28.5N 109.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADARS AT LOS CABOS AND\r\nGUASAVE SHOW THAT LANE HAS AN EYE ABOUT 8-10 N MI WIDE.  ON\r\nSATELLITE...THE EYE IS EMBEDDED IN CLOUD TOPS OF -70 TO -80C AND\r\nHAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115 KT FROM SAB...AND 102 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nAFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 110 KT BASED ON THESE\r\nESTIMATES AND THE INCREASED EYE DEFINTION SINCE 12Z.  THE LOS CABOS\r\nRADAR SUGGESTS THAT LANE IS ABOUT TO START AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT\r\nCYCLE...SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE IS CLOSE TO PEAKING IN\r\nINTENSITY EVEN IF IT REMAINS OVER WATER LONGER THAN CURRENTLY\r\nFORECAST.  WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN\r\nMEXCIO AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST\r\nTO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 72 HR. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 350/9.  LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  IF OVER\r\nWATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST\r\nAS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING\r\nAND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR A NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATION ALONG AND WEST OF THE MAIN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WESTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 23.5N 107.1W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 24.8N 107.4W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 25.9N 107.6W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 26.8N 107.9W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 27.8N 108.2W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REACHED THE EYE OF\r\nLANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 955 MB...ALONG WITH MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nOF 110 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE IN THE\r\nSOUTH EYEWALL JUST AFTER LANDFALL MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 108\r\nKT...ALTHOUGH THE REDUCTIONS FOR THE LOWEST LAYERS OF THE DROP ARE\r\nNOT AVAILABLE.  THESE DATA INDICATE THAT LANE MADE LANDFALL AS A\r\nCATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE\r\nHURRICANE IS NOW WEAKENING OVER LAND...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nREDUCED TO 105 KT.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS LANE MOVES\r\nFARTHER INLAND...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO IN 48-72 HR.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL 350/9.  LANE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS MOVING TOWARD A\r\nDEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  IF OVER\r\nWATER...THIS WOULD PROBABLY RECURVE LANE TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST\r\nAS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDN MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE LOWER- AND UPPER-\r\nLEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF LANE ARE LIKELY TO DE-COUPLE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MEXICO...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISSIPATING\r\nAND THE UPPER CIRCULATION TURNING EASTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK\r\nCALLS FOR A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 24.4N 107.2W   105 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.6N 107.4W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 26.8N 107.6W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 27.8N 107.7W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 28.8N 107.8W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Lane","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nRUGGED TERRAIN AND INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAVE\r\nNEGATIVELY AFFECTED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF LANE.  SHORTWAVE\r\nINFRARED AND EARLIER VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTED THE MID-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL\r\nMOUNTAINS...SEPARATING FROM THE POORLY DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.  DUE\r\nTO THE AFOREMENTIONED SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S\r\nSTRUCTURE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT.  ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS LANE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER HIGH\r\nTERRAIN...WITH DISSIPATION OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 350/7.  THE SURFACE CENTER\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION...WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THE THROUGH THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD...BASICALLY PARALLELING THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE\r\nSIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL RANGE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 25.0N 107.4W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 25.8N 107.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 26.7N 108.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 27.5N 108.7W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Lane","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nLANE IS PROGRESSING INLAND AT 335/6 AND WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER THE\r\nRUGGED TERRAIN OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  NOT MUCH DEEP CONVECTION IS\r\nLEFT...BUT A CIRCULATION IS STILL EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD\r\nFIELD...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT SOME TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE\r\nSTILL OCCURRING.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT...AND\r\nLANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN A FEW HOURS.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nHOWEVER...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY\r\nRAINFALL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 25.6N 107.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 26.3N 107.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Lane","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP132006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nLANE HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO\r\nAND BOTH SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON\r\nLANE. HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TODAY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 26.3N 107.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-09-16 12:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nTHE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT\r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND\r\nPERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED\r\nON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION\r\nCENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7.  THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO\r\nBE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY\r\nDISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER\r\nLOCATION.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO\r\nREMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN\r\nTHE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD\r\nRESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04.  GLOBAL MODELS\r\nARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF\r\nHURRICANE LANE.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING\r\nAND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN\r\nRESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS\r\nCREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.  BY THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY\r\nSHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE\r\nSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1200Z 17.5N 114.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 17.9N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 18.9N 113.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 19.8N 112.7W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 20.8N 112.7W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 26.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fourteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-09-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS MORNING...\r\nWITH THE MAIN CONVECTION CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND\r\nSAB.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT UNTIL\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES PROVIDE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE CENTER IS IN\r\nRELATION TO THE CONVECTION.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS\r\nBASED ON DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION\r\nISLAND.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/3.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE.  AFTER THAT...LANE\r\nSHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING\r\nSHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM\r\nCOULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THAT\r\nDEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IS LEFT OVER COLDER WATERS AND\r\nWILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.\r\n\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR AS VERTICAL\r\nWIND SHEAR CAUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM LANE INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT.  THE\r\nSHEAR COULD DECREASE BY 60 HR...BUT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME.  BY 120 HR...THE\r\nSYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 24C SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 17.8N 114.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 18.3N 113.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 20.4N 112.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 21.2N 112.5W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-09-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE DAY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\n14E HAS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE MAIN CONVECTION.  WHILE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY\r\nWEAKENING...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE\r\nAGAIN 35 KT AT 18Z.  ON THIS BASIS...THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WITH 35 KT WINDS.  THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED\r\nSTATION ON CLARION ISLAND...OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN CONVECTION...HAS\r\nBEEN REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT\r\nDURING THE DAY WITH PRESSURES OF 1005-1006 MB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGLY UNCERTAIN 040/3.  THE DEPRESSION\r\nSHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE.  AFTER THAT...LANE\r\nSHOULD BE DISSIPATING OVER MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING SHOULD\r\nDEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A\r\nNORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INCREASED\r\nCHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE\r\nTO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...SO A NORTHWARD TURN IS NOW INDICATED AT THAT\r\nTIME.\r\n\r\nA COMBINATION OF NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...STABLE\r\nINFLOW...AND GRADUALLY COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY KEEP MIRIAM FROM STRENGTHENING VERY\r\nMUCH.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR A LITTLE STRENGTHENING\r\nNEAR 48 HR WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT.  AFTER\r\nTHAT...THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS AND BECOME A\r\nREMNANT LOW BY 120 HR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 18.2N 114.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 18.7N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N 113.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 20.9N 112.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 22.1N 112.9W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 25.5N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 27.5N 115.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-09-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL \r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM \r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 \r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 \r\n800 PM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006\r\n\r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED AND DEEPENING\r\nCONVECTION SOUTH OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM...SLOWLY SHIFTING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION...\r\nAND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 AND 35\r\nKT RESPECTIVELY. AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES.\r\n\r\nWHILE TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM HAS TAKEN A MORE NORTHWARD JOG...CURRENT\r\nMOTION IS 020/2. THE STORM IS STILL DRIFTING IN A GENERALLY\r\nNORTHEAST DIRECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SOUTH\r\nOF THE CENTER THAT IS PART OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH CONTAINING\r\nBOTH TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM AND HURRICANE LANE. THE TRACK FORECAST\r\nIS SLOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT DAYS 4 AND 5 AND MORE\r\nCLOSELY FOLLOWS MODEL CONSENSUS GIVEN THE LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN\r\nTHE GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nNONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WINDS IN THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS...AND EVEN THE GFDL MODEL...INITIALIZED WITH THE\r\nSTRONGEST CYCLONE OF ALL THE MODELS...FORECASTS ONLY SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES\r\nLITTLE OR NO INTENSIFICATION AND THEN DISSIPATION IN 3-4 DAYS. THE\r\nDOMINANT NEGATIVE INTENSITY FACTOR IS INTRUSION OF DRY STABLE\r\nMARITIME AIR.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINITIAL  17/0300Z 18.4N 114.4W 40 KT\r\n 12HR VT 17/1200Z 18.8N 114.0W 40 KT \r\n 24HR VT 18/0000Z 19.5N 113.3W 40 KT \r\n 36HR VT 18/1200Z 20.6N 113.0W 45 KT \r\n 48HR VT 19/0000Z 21.6N 113.1W 40 KT \r\n 72HR VT 20/0000Z 23.1N 113.7W 35 KT \r\n 96HR VT 21/0000Z 24.5N 114.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING \r\n120HR VT 22/0000Z 26.0N 115.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n\r\n$$ FORECASTER FIORINO/STEWART\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-09-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nMIRIAM IS A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM WITH ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nDISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BASED ON A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0220 UTC...A COUPLE OF NEARBY SHIP\r\nOBSERVATIONS...AND ON AN OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE USING THE SHEAR\r\nPATTERN...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KT.  THE WIND SHEAR\r\nIS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...SO STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR VERY LIKELY.  ON THE\r\nCONTRARY...THE SHIPS AND GFDL BOTH FORECAST GRADUAL WEAKENING...AND\r\nSO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  WEAKENING WILL ALSO BE HASTENED WHEN THE\r\nCYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nUSING SEVERAL PASSIVE MICROWAVE OVERPASSES AND A COUPLE OF QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASSES DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS OR SO...THE FORWARD MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABOUT 015/4.  WITH LANE WEAKENING OVER\r\nLAND...ITS INFLUENCE ON MIRIAM IS NOT ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT AND THE\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCONTINUES TO SHOW A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST...AT A CONTINUED SLOW PACE...IN ACCORDANCE WITH\r\nMOST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT IS ADJUSTED A BIT TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO\r\nTHE CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 19.1N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 19.7N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 113.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 21.5N 113.7W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 22.4N 114.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 24.0N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 25.0N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-09-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nMIRIAM CONTINUES TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ALL\r\nOF ITS DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED\r\nLOW LEVEL CENTER. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AT ISLA\r\nCLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 29 KT AND GUSTS TO 45\r\nKT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.0 AND 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT. MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING INTO\r\nAN AREA OF INCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS AS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 96 HOURS...CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE SHIPS...GFDL AND\r\nFSU SUPERENSEMBLE.\r\n\r\nA 0537 UTC AMSU PASS HELPED TO LOCATE THE CENTER. THE FORWARD \r\nMOTION IS ONLY 015/4...SINCE MIRIAM IS EMBEDED WITHIN RATHER WEAK\r\nSTEERING CURRENTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN MORE\r\nTO NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NUDGED A\r\nLITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO BECOME BETTER ALIGNED\r\nWITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 19.2N 113.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 19.9N 113.7W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 20.7N 113.9W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 21.5N 114.5W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 22.5N 115.3W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-09-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING\r\nCONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION.\r\nOBVIOUSLY THIS SYSTEM IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nAND PERHAPS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY\r\nAT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 26 KT AND GUSTS TO 39\r\nKT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SHIP A8HR7 ABOUT 170 NM TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 39 KT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS WERE\r\nON THE PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION AND LIKELY NOT REPRESENTATIVE\r\nOF MIRIAM'S ACTUAL INTENSITY. MOREOVER A QUALITY CONTROL CHECK FROM\r\nTHE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE\r\nRUNNING A LITTLE HIGH. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT\r\nINTENSITY NUMBERS OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS REDUCED TO 35 KT. MIRIAM WILL BE MOVING INTO AN AREA OF\r\nINCREASED WIND SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN 72 HOURS...\r\nBUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER.\r\n \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION IS A SLOW 010/4...SINCE MIRIAM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN\r\nRATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN\r\nINDICATING A NORTHWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TURN\r\nAS THE SYSTEM BECOMES SHALLOW AND STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.\r\nTHIS FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT NUDGED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE TO BE BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 19.3N 114.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 20.1N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 20.9N 114.6W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 21.9N 115.6W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 23.0N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Miriam","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-09-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN SEP 17 2006\r\n\r\nDESPITE AN IMPRESSIVE DISPLAY OF CONVECTION-CYCLONE\r\nDECOUPLING...MIRIAM REMAINS A TROPICAL STORM. THE WEAK CONVECTION\r\nOBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON SPAWNED A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER WEST\r\nOF THE NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL\r\nIS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE SURFACE CENTER...IN APPROXIMATELY\r\n30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR.  AT 2100Z...THE AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION\r\nON ISLA CLARION REPORTED 25 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KT. \r\nHOWEVER...A 0000Z SHIP OBSERVATION 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF\r\n35 KT AND 20-FT SEAS SUPPORTS TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...COUNTER TO\r\nTHE POOR SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE\r\nSTORM DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND GIVEN THE CURRENT\r\nSTATE OF MIRIAM THIS SEEMS HIGHLY LIKELY.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS DIRECTION BUT AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER\r\nPACE...CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS MIRIAM RESPONDS\r\nTO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 19.4N 114.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 19.9N 114.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 21.0N 114.9W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 22.1N 115.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 23.1N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 24.5N 117.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FIORINO/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Miriam","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-09-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n200 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS BEEN VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0100 UTC. A 0154\r\nUTC QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY A SINGLE 35 KT VECTOR SOUTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE WINDS HAVE SINCE DECREASED\r\nDUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION. THEREFORE...MIRIAM IS BEING\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER\r\nPROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE\r\nPROSPECTS FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH...AND\r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. MIRIAM HAS A\r\nLARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS\r\nPRIOR TO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nCENTER OF MIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING JUST TO THE EAST OF DUE NORTH...\r\nAROUND 010/05...TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE TRACK IS\r\nSHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE HEADING AND\r\nSPEED FOLLOW THE TREND OF THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.  THIS TRACK IS TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH INITIALIZED\r\nMIRIAM AS A DEEPER SYSTEM.  THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF MIRIAM WILL\r\nBE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE\r\nTOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO\r\nDURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 19.9N 113.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 20.9N 114.1W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 22.2N 114.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 24.4N 116.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 26.7N 116.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 30.5N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Miriam","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-09-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP142006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRIAM DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006\r\n800 AM PDT MON SEP 18 2006\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 15 HOURS AND\r\nIS NOW A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY\r\nAT ISLA CLARION REPORTED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 18 KT AT 1000\r\nUTC... HOWEVER SINCE THEN THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED EVEN FURTHER.\r\nBASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 1.5\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.\r\nMIRIAM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARDS COOLER WATERS AND A DRY STABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT GIVING THE SYSTEM VERY LITTLE CHANCE TO REGAIN\r\nCONVECTION. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW\r\nLATER TODAY...IF IT IS NOT ONE ALREADY. MIRIAM HAS A LARGE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT COULD PERSIST FOR A FEW DAYS\r\nPRIOR TO DISSIPATION.\r\n \r\nMIRIAM HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH 000/05...ALTHOUGH A\r\nSLIGHT WEST OF NORTH MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS. THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nONE...INDICATING THAT THE REMNANTS OF MIRIAM WILL BE STEERED\r\nNORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND\r\nTHE PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.\r\n \r\nASSUMING REGENERATION DOES NOT OCCUR...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nISSUED ON MIRIAM.ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND\r\nIN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER\r\nSERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 20.1N 113.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 22.9N 115.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 25.0N 116.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 27.4N 115.9W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-10-09 04:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n900 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2006\r\n\r\nSINCE THE 0000 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS...INFRARED SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES INDICATED INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 750 MILES SOUTHWEST\r\nOF CABO SAN LUCAS.  ACCORDINGLY...A SPECIAL ADVISORY IS NOW BEING\r\nISSUED ON A NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGHER\r\nOF THE AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  THE CURRENT ORGANIZATION TREND\r\nOF THE SYSTEM ARGUES FOR STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IN THE\r\nSHORTER-TERM AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  AFTERWARDS...SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS CALLED FOR...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL.  HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER AN\r\nENVIRONMENT OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER\r\nWATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...\r\nAND ULTIMATELY RESULT IN WEAKENING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS...UNTIL RECENTLY...BEEN POORLY\r\nDEFINED...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/8 IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. \r\nTHE CYCLONE SHOULD ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE MAIN STEERING\r\nFEATURE SHOULD BE A LARGE CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OFF THE SOUTHERN\r\nCALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOUT A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW MUCH ACCELERATION\r\nIN DAYS 3-5 AS WE EXPECT THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO A\r\nSHALLOW LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE BAJA PENINSULA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0400Z 14.7N 117.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 117.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 117.8W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0000Z 19.6N 117.3W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0000Z 21.5N 115.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0000Z 23.5N 113.0W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/0000Z 25.5N 110.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-10-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006\r\n \r\nA SMALL MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND MOSTLY TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND\r\nUNTIL VERY RECENTLY THE COLDEST TOPS WERE LESS THAN -80 DEGREES\r\nCELSIUS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06 UTC WERE 30-35 KT. \r\nSINCE THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEEN ON A SLIGHT WARMING TREND...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE DEPRESSION\r\nFELL SQUARELY WITHIN THE GAP BETWEEN QUIKSCAT SWATHS AT ABOUT 01\r\nUTC AND 03 UTC...SO THERE IS NO WIND DATA FROM ANYWHERE NEAR THE\r\nCENTER OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE APPEARS TO HAVE A\r\nFAIRLY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN. \r\nSOUTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE UNDERLYING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE\r\nALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL DECREASE FROM THE CURRENT 28C TO\r\nABOUT 26C DURING THAT SAME PERIOD.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 40\r\nKT...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.  THE CYCLONE\r\nIS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BEFORE NEARING THE BAJA\r\nCALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN A FEW DAYS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...335/8.  THE\r\nDEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF\r\nA RATHER WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN 24-36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE\r\nRIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT\r\nTO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. \r\nHOWEVER...SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND\r\nEVENTUALLY BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AFTER IT TURNS NORTHEASTWARD...\r\nIT WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE TOO QUICKLY.  IN FACT...THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO BE IN BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/0900Z 15.3N 117.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     09/1800Z 16.3N 118.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/0600Z 17.6N 118.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     10/1800Z 18.7N 117.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/0600Z 19.6N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/0600Z 21.0N 115.5W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/0600Z 24.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-10-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 09 2006\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION WITH THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN THE FORM OF A NICELY\r\nCURVED BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  NOT MUCH OF A CONSENSUS\r\nEXISTS AMONG THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES...WHICH AT 12Z WERE\r\n55...45...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE\r\nUW/CIMSS ADT IS GIVING A CI ESTIMATE OF ABOUT 35 KT...BUT RECENT\r\nRAW NUMBERS ARE HIGHER.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS A BLEND\r\nOF THESE ESTIMATES.  WE WILL SEE WHETHER THE BANDED STRUCTURE\r\nPERSISTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A QUIKSCAT PASS DUE SHORTLY\r\nSHOULD SHED MORE LIGHT ON HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS.  THERE IS AN\r\nOPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO\r\nWHILE NORMAN IS STILL OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE CYCLONE\r\nENCOUNTERS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFDL NOR THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.  GIVEN THE\r\nAPPARENT STRENGTHENING THIS MORNING...THE SHORT-TERM INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND WELL ABOVE THE\r\nGFDL.  REGARDLESS OF WHAT NORMAN DOES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...\r\nENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AFTER THAT SHOULD BE QUITE HOSTILE AND\r\nINDUCE WEAKENING.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/6.  NORMAN IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN\r\nEDGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nCYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT\r\nROUNDS THE RIDGE AND BECOMES EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING\r\nCURRENT TO THE SOUTH OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN\r\nUNITED STATES.  AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE SPREAD EXISTS AMONG THE\r\nGUIDANCE MODELS...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TURNING NORMAN SLOWLY\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD...WHILE THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS TAKE NORMAN OFF\r\nSMARTLY TO THE NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSOUTHWESTERLIES.  GIVEN THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS THAT LIE AHEAD\r\nOF NORMAN...I BELIEVE THE LATTER SCENARIO IS UNLIKELY.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/1500Z 15.8N 117.6W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0000Z 16.8N 117.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.2N 117.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1200Z 20.5N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1200Z 21.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI-S INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  IN ANY\r\nEVENT...NORMAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS\r\nMORNING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH SLIGHT BANDING\r\nFEATURES.  1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 55 KT FROM\r\nTAFB...AND 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA.  HOWEVER...A 1350 UTC\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT REVEAL ANY VECTORS OVER 35 KT AND AS A\r\nRESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT.  NORMAN IS\r\nFORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...BUT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING\r\nWEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE\r\nFORECAST.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION\r\nIN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE\r\nOR SO DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB\r\nTO THE INCREASING SHEAR.  THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE\r\nSHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6.  NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE\r\nWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN\r\nMEXICO.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF\r\nRIDGE AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS\r\nAS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL\r\nCALIFORNIA.  THERE IS A DICHOTOMY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE.  THE\r\nGFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FOLLOW THE ABOVE REASONING AND TAKE\r\nNORMAN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...\r\nTHE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODELS ALL TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST...EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH.  THE LATTER SCENARIO\r\nAPPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A\r\nBLEND OF THE GFDL...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS FORECAST. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 16.2N 117.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 16.9N 118.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.7N 118.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.6N 117.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 19.5N 117.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006\r\n \r\nNORMAN HAS BEEN EXHIBITING A BURSTING TYPE CONVECTIVE PATTERN DURING\r\nTHE LAST 6-12 HOURS.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT\r\nBASED ON A BLEND OF THE LASTEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY ALONG\r\nWITH AN EXPERIMENTAL OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM UW-CIMSS.  IT\r\nSHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE DUE TO THE CURRENT LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED CLOUD PATTERN.\r\nNORMAN HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED\r\nWITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN IS LIFTING QUICKLY\r\nNORTHEASTWARD...AND THIS EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A\r\nTEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE SHEAR. THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AND NORMAN IS\r\nFORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.  THIS SEEMINGLY\r\nUNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING WITH NORMAN\r\nEXPECTED TO BECOME A DISSIPATING REMNANT LOW NEAR THE END OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.\r\n \r\nNORMAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK\r\nMID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION OR 360/05.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN MORE\r\nTOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE A LITTLE AS IT REACHES THE\r\nNORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  WHILE THE\r\nSYNOPTIC SCALE STEERING APPEARS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD A BIT MOST LIKELY DUE TO VARYING\r\nFORECAST STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THE NOGAPS...\r\nUKMET...CANADIAN AND GFDN MODELS ALL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE QUICKLY\r\nRESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST BEYOND 36 HOURS.\r\nCONVERSELY... THE ECMWF...GFDL...GFS...AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN\r\nMAINTAIN A MORE VERTICALLY COHERENT VORTEX AND SHOW THE CYCLONE\r\nCONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BAJA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nASSUMES NORMAN WILL REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nAND GAIN ENOUGH LATITUDE TO BE CAUGHT IN THE DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY\r\nFLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ITS NORTH. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 16.9N 117.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 17.6N 117.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 18.6N 117.3W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 19.9N 116.3W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 20.8N 115.3W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 22.5N 113.0W    25 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n \r\nNORMAN HAS SUSTAINED SOME DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL\r\nHOURS...ALTHOUGH THE COVERAGE HAS BEEN GENERALLY ON THE DECREASE. \r\nSHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY AND AN SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC SUGGEST THE\r\nCYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH THE CONVECTION BEGINNING TO\r\nBECOME DISPLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.\r\nTHE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES\r\nOF 55 KT AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...BUT LEANING TOWARD THE LOWER\r\nESTIMATE BASED ON A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0230 UTC THAT DID NOT REVEAL\r\nANY WINDS GREATER THAN 45 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT BEYOND\r\nABOUT 12 HOURS THE SHEAR WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF\r\nTHE FORECAST PERIOD.  NORMAN WILL ALSO PASS OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER\r\nSSTS BEYOND 12 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT\r\nTHESE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND ANTICIPATES WEAKENING\r\nBEYOND 24 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL GUIDANCE...AND FOLLOWS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY.\r\n\r\nNORMAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH...TEMPORARILY\r\nWITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING FLOW...IN BETWEEN THE FAR WESTERN\r\nPERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO...AND SOUTH OF THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM\r\nCALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD OVER BAJA.  A QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS AND\r\nTHE SSMI OVERPASS AT 0400 UTC HELPED VERIFY THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE IS ONLY 360/2.  HOWEVER...ALL OF THE TRACK MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SLOWDOWN IS TEMPORARY AND FORECAST A GRADUAL\r\nTURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. \r\nHOWEVER...THE MODELS GREATLY DISAGREE ON HOW FAR NORTH NORMAN WILL\r\nTRAVEL AND HOW FAST.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 16.5N 117.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 17.5N 117.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 18.4N 116.8W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 19.1N 115.9W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 19.9N 114.9W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 21.0N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Norman","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n \r\nSHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY AND AN EARLIER TRMM OVERPASS DEPICTED\r\nTHAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED AND FARTHER\r\nSEPARATED TO THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE UW-CIMSS\r\nWIND SHEAR PRODUCT INDICATES 10 TO 20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT SHEARED\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM AND DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE CENTER...THE\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE BECOME WIDELY DISPERSED AND ARE\r\nRANGING FROM 30 TO 45 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40\r\nKT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE CLASSIFICATIONS.\r\n\r\nLARGE SCALE MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL ALL SUGGEST A\r\nSTEADY WEAKENING THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS\r\nADJUSTED SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE SHIPS/GFDL GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS 360/3...WITHIN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nWEAKENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL\r\nMEXICO.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL INDICATE THAT NORMAN WILL BEGIN A\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DEEP LAYER\r\nTROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF OF\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE\r\nUKMET...ECMWF AND THE NOGAPS INDICATE A DRIFT INCREASINGLY EASTWARD\r\nWITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLIES OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.  ON THE\r\nOTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE REFLECT A\r\nCONTINUED NORTHEASTWARD MOTION INFLUENCED BY THE STEERING FLOW OF\r\nTHE DEEPENING TROUGH WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE BEYOND 48\r\nHOURS AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE MODELS WITH EMPHASIS\r\nON THE UKMET CLUSTER...INDICATING A VERTICALLY SHALLOW TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 17.0N 117.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 17.8N 117.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 18.7N 116.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 19.5N 115.6W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 20.0N 114.7W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 21.0N 113.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 22.0N 111.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1332Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS DEPICT AN\r\nINCREASINGLY SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN WITH UNCONTAMINATED WINDS OF 30\r\nKT NOW DISPLACED MORE THAN 100 N MI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND THIS MORNING'S QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY SOLUTION.\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY...WHICH HEDGES\r\nCLOSELY TOWARD THE SHIPS...INDICATING FURTHER WEAKENING TO A\r\nREMNANT LOW IN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND DISSIPATION BY DAY 3.\r\nHOWEVER...DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR MUCH EARLIER IF THE SYSTEM DOES\r\nNOT GENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS A DRIFT EASTWARD...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nFLOW PROVIDED BY A RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...FOLLOWING\r\nTHE DYNAMICAL MODELS WHICH REFLECT A WEAK AND SHALLOW SYSTEM MOVING\r\nGENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE\r\nDISSIPATING WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 16.5N 117.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.1N 117.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 17.8N 116.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 18.2N 115.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 18.5N 114.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n \r\nLATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NORMAN HAS BEEN UNABLE TO\r\nGENERATE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION FOR 12-18 HOURS.  ACCORDINGLY...THIS SYSTEM NO LONGER\r\nQUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY\r\nISSUED UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nLOWERED TO 25 KT...AND THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN\r\nDOWN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BE DISSIPATED BY DAY 3. \r\n \r\nLACKING APPRECIABLE CONVECTION...NORMAN NOW APPEARS RELATIVELY\r\nSHALLOW AND THUS STEERED BY LOWER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. \r\nACCORDINGLY...THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST\r\nOR 075/06.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH TO BE\r\nIN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL MOTION...AND IS CLOSEST TO THE\r\nNOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS. \r\n\r\nFOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN PLEASE SEE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 16.8N 117.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.0N 116.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.3N 115.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 17.6N 114.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 18.0N 113.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006\r\n\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CONSIDERABLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH\r\nTHE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTAINING THE REMNANTS OF NORMAN. \r\nCURVED BAND FEATURES HAVE BECOME WELL-DEFINED AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS\r\nRANGE FROM 2.0  TO 2.5.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nMINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1001 MB.  ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE\r\nIMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL NOT VERY\r\nWELL-ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED SUFFICIENTLY TO DESIGNATE\r\nIT AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE IS A COMBINATION\r\nOF THE REMNANT OF NORMAN AND ANOTHER LOW...THERE IS ENOUGH\r\nCONTINUITY ON THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF NORMAN'S REMNANTS TO\r\nJUSTIFY CALLING THIS SYSTEM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN ONCE AGAIN.\r\nGIVEN THE INCREASING ORGANIZATION...WARM OCEAN WATERS...AND\r\nPROMINENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST\r\nUNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER LAND.\r\n\r\nCENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS A\r\nRATHER UNCERTAIN 035/7.  ASIDE FROM SOME ADDITIONAL ROTATION OF THE\r\nCENTER AROUND THE BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...THE MAIN STEERING\r\nFEATURES ARE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE\r\nBAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS\r\nSCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD TRACK\r\nDURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH\r\nASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THE\r\nMEXICAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A\r\nPORTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THEIR COUNTRY.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 18.1N 105.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 18.7N 104.6W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.7N 104.4W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 104.4W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING.  HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  RECENT TRMM\r\nAND AMSR-E OVERPASSES HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO\r\nHELP LOCATE THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST RECEIVED INDICATES\r\nTHAT IF THE CENTER IS NOT ALREADY ON THE COAST IT IS VERY CLOSE.\r\n \r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE RECENT\r\nQUIKSCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY 35 KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT\r\nSUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.  GIVEN THESE DATA NORMAN WILL\r\nREMAIN A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE MAIN\r\nINHIBITOR FOR STRENGTHENING IS NORMAN'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. \r\nON THE FORECAST TRACK NORMAN SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN THE NEXT FEW\r\nHOURS.  WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE NORMAN\r\nREACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE\r\nIT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. \r\nTHEREAFTER... NORMAN SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nTHE MAIN STEERING FEATURES REMAIN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS\r\nMOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A\r\nRIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH\r\nTO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS\r\nNEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT NORMAN STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM BEFORE LANDFALL...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE\r\nIS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 19.0N 104.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.7N 104.6W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.7N 104.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n  \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Norman","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP152006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006\r\n \r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO HAVE NOT\r\nPROVIDED ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE CENTER OF\r\nNORMAN MOVED INLAND...AND THE DATA SUGGEST THAT NORMAN LACKS A\r\nCLOSED CIRCULATION.  THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME ELONGATED\r\nAND RESEMBLES THAT OF AN OPEN TROUGH RATHER THAN A TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  MICROWAVE DATA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE ALSO\r\nPROVIDED NO INDICATION OF A CIRCULATION CENTER.  BASED ON THESE\r\nDATA...NORMAN IS BEING DECLARED DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST OF\r\nMEXICO NEAR MANZANILLO...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nDISCONTINUED.\r\n \r\nTHE LARGE AND BROAD SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST\r\nMEXICO...AND IT COULD REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.\r\nLOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A SIGNIFICANT\r\nHAZARD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.  THIS RAINFALL HAS\r\nTHE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER AREAS OF\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.\r\n \r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON NORMAN UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 19.2N 104.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-10-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN HAS\r\nBEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN A SPRAWLING BAND OVER THE\r\nSYSTEM'S NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES\r\nFROM TAFB AND SAB OF 35 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...APPEAR TO BE TOO\r\nHIGH...THERE IS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON A\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON\r\nTHE QUIKSCAT PASS AT 14Z...WHICH SHOWED A FEW RAIN-FLAGGED 35 KT\r\nVECTORS BUT A NUMBER OF BELIEVABLE 30 KT VECTORS.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nNEAR THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...WITH A DEEP\r\nTROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO\r\nGRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...ALTHOUGH THERE\r\nIS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE RECURVATURE. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST BLENDS THE NOGAPS AND GFDL MODELS IN SHOWING\r\nTHE DEPRESSION FOLLOWING VERY CLOSELY BEHIND TROPICAL STORM NORMAN\r\nTOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.\r\n\r\nTHE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE DISSIPATES THE DEPRESSION BY 72\r\nHOURS...BUT IT WAS RUN OFF THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL WHICH IS\r\nCONSIDERABLY NORTH OF THE OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THEREFORE OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR.  WHILE SHEAR COULD\r\nDISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE IN SHOWING LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      09/2100Z 12.8N 127.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/0600Z 13.2N 128.1W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     10/1800Z 13.7N 128.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/0600Z 14.5N 127.8W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     11/1800Z 16.0N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     13/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     14/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W    35 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-10-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006\r\n \r\nDEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS BECOME LESS\r\nORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...ALONG WITH A DIMINISHED\r\nCOVERAGE OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nBOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE DROPPED.  NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE WIND\r\nSPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT\r\nPREDICTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO AND THE\r\nSYSTEM IS OVER WARM WATERS...SOME SLIGHT NEAR-TERM STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD INTERACT WITH\r\nINCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...I.E. AN\r\nENVIRONMENT HOSTILE TO STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED\r\nFORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE AND IS THE SAME\r\nAS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT\r\nTHE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE...DUE TO PROHIBITIVELY STRONG SHEAR...BY\r\nTHE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nAS TO BE EXPECTED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM...THERE IS A LOT OF SCATTER IN\r\nTHE CENTER FIXES.  MY BEST GUESS IS THAT THE CENTER IS JUST\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nAPPEARS TO BE GENERALLY NORTHWARD...350/3.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  IT IS EXPECTED\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WEAK RIDGE FOR\r\nABOUT A DAY...AND THEN TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOME STEERED BY THE\r\nFLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NEAR THE\r\nSOUTHERN CALIFORNIA- BAJA CALIFORNIA BORDER.  THIS FORECAST IS\r\nFAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK...AND ALSO CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0300Z 13.3N 127.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1200Z 13.7N 127.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0000Z 14.5N 127.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1200Z 15.5N 126.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0000Z 16.8N 124.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 120.5W    35 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0000Z 21.5N 116.5W    30 KT\r\n120HR VT     15/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Sixteen-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-10-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n \r\nRECENT MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AS A BURST OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  BECAUSE OF\r\nTHE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THERE IS A RATHER LARGE\r\nRANGE...30 TO 45 KT...IN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  AN\r\nEARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT PROVIDE ANY CONCLUSIVE INDICATION THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS STRENGTHENED.  THE QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATED WINDS\r\nAROUND 25 KT OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO\r\nDETERMINE IF THE STRONGER RETRIEVED WINDS IN THE CONVECTION ARE\r\nBELIEVABLE.  THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS\r\nADVISORY...TO WAIT AND SEE IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST PERSISTS.\r\n\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12-24\r\nHOURS...AND SO ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THEREAFTER...\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD HALT\r\nFURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...STRONG SHEAR...STABLE\r\nAIR...AND COOLER SSTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE CYCLONE FAIRLY\r\nQUICKLY.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE\r\nPREVIOUS NHC FORECAST.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/5 KT.  THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nCURRENTLY BEING STEERED NORTHWARD AROUND A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nTO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH\r\nSEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION IS\r\nFORECAST TO SOON BEGIN TURNING THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD.  A SECOND\r\nDEEP LAYER CYCLONE THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST\r\nOF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE DEPRESSION\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS.  THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT\r\nTHERE ARE VAST DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nTRAVEL.  THE UKMET IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE\r\nGFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nAT DAYS 3 AND 4 AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND THE GFDL\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/0900Z 14.0N 127.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     10/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/0600Z 15.5N 126.7W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     11/1800Z 16.5N 125.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/0600Z 17.5N 123.2W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/0600Z 19.5N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     14/0600Z 21.5N 115.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-10-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND NORTH OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 6 TO 9 HOURS NOW.  A TRMM PASS AT 0721\r\nUTC SUGGESTS THIS CONVECTION HAS SOME BANDING STRUCTURE...AND\r\nDVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 35 TO\r\n45 KT.  ON THIS BASIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A 40 KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM.  ONLY A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DUE TO\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND\r\nINCREASE AFTER 24 HOURS.  THIS...COUPLED WITH COOLER WATERS FROM\r\n36-72 HOURS...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DISSIPATION BEFORE THE END\r\nOF THE FORECAST PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 005/5...BASED IN PART ON THE TRMM\r\nPASS.  OLIVIA IS MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE...AND SHOULD SOON BE FEELING THE EFFECTS OF A LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  ALL GUIDANCE\r\nTURNS OLIVIA SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT\r\nTHERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER THAT.  THE\r\nUKMET AND ECMWF MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AND TAKE IT SLOWLY\r\nEASTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHILE THE GFDL MAINTAINS A MORE\r\nCOHERENT STRUCTURE AND CONSEQUENTLY FOLLOWS A DEEPER FLOW MORE\r\nRAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE GFS APPARENTLY WANTS TO HAVE IT BOTH\r\nWAYS...SPLITTING OLIVIA INTO TWO VORTICITY MAXIMA...ONE OF WHICH\r\nGOES NORTHEASTWARD AND A WEAKER LOBE THAN LINGERS TO THE SOUTH.  I\r\nAM INCLINED TO THINK THAT OLIVIA WILL FOLLOW NORMAN'S LEAD...WHICH\r\nCURRENTLY APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHEARING OFF AND SLOWING\r\nDOWN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/1500Z 14.6N 127.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0000Z 15.3N 126.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1200Z 16.2N 125.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0000Z 17.0N 123.7W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1200Z 17.7N 121.8W    35 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1200Z 19.0N 118.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-10-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n \r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR AND IS LESS BANDED THAN THIS MORNING.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE ADVISORY\r\nINTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT.  THE LATEST SHIPS DOES NOT SHOW MUCH\r\nINCREASE IN SHEAR...BUT OLIVIA WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE EXISTING SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO\r\nKILL OFF OLIVIA ONCE THESE WATERS ARE ENCOUNTERED...AND THE\r\nFORECAST DISSIPATION IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nVISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT OLIVIA HAS ACCELERATED\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO A A LARGE MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 040/12.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE\r\nUNTIL OLIVIA SHEARS OFF AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM.  WHEN\r\nTHIS HAPPENS WILL AFFECT HOW CLOSE THE CIRCULATIONS OF OLIVIA AND\r\nNORMAN WILL GET...AND IF IT HAPPENS LATER RATHER THAN SOONER OLIVIA\r\nCOULD BE DEFLECTED SOUTHWARD BY THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\nTRACK AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      10/2100Z 15.9N 126.0W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/0600Z 17.2N 124.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     11/1800Z 18.2N 122.8W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/0600Z 19.0N 120.6W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     12/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     13/1800Z 20.0N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     14/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Olivia","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-10-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 10 2006\r\n\r\nOLIVIA'S DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN\r\nAMORPHOUS BLOB.  THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES FROM EARLIER TODAY...AND THUS NO CHANGE IS MADE TO THE\r\nWIND SPEED ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN\r\nAN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY STRONG SHEAR...ABOUT 25 KT FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST...AND THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS OR MORE.  AS OLIVIA MOVES OVER MARGINAL SSTS...IT\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT WEAKEN THE\r\nSYSTEM QUITE AS QUICKLY AS THE SHIPS OR FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. \r\nGIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...OLIVIA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER\r\nTHAN INDICATED BY THIS FORECAST.\r\n\r\nLATEST VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS NEAR 040/11.  FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...OLIVIA IS LIKELY TO BE\r\nSTEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW PRESSURE AREA\r\nTO ITS NORTH.  THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT OLIVIA WILL INTERACT\r\nWITH THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMA...WHICH IS NOT FAR TO ITS\r\nEAST.  SUCH AN INTERACTION COULD CAUSE A MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN\r\nINDICATED BY THE LARGER-SCALE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THIS IS WELL\r\nNORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT NOT FAR FROM THE NCEP\r\nGLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0300Z 16.5N 125.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1200Z 17.2N 124.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0000Z 17.8N 122.5W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     13/0000Z 19.0N 118.0W    25 KT\r\n 72HR VT     14/0000Z 19.5N 115.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-10-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006\r\n \r\nIT APPEARS THAT PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEGUN TO TAKE\r\nITS TOLL ON OLIVIA. THE CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF\r\nTHE CENTER...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE\r\nLAST FEW HOURS. THE LARGE BLOB OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH OLIVIA EARLIER TODAY HAS ALSO DIMINISHED GREATLY IN COVERAGE. \r\nAN EARLIER 0200 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS REVEALED NO WINDS OF 35 KT OR\r\nGREATER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AT 06 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE BOTH 45 KT...ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE DATA-T NUMBERS HAD FALLEN IN RESPONSE TO THE DETERIORATING\r\nCONVECTIVE PATTERN.  SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN\r\nSINCE THEN...AND CONSIDERING THE QUIKSCAT DATA...OLIVIA IS BEING\r\nDOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS. CONTINUED\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nANTICIPATES A SLIGHTLY FASTER DECLINE THAN DOES THE GFDL...AND\r\nINSTEAD IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  IF\r\nTHE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH...THE DEPRESSION COULD\r\nDEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW FASTER THAN WE ARE INDICATING.\r\n\r\nOLIVIA'S INITIAL MOTION IS NEAR 045/09. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED\r\nTO TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...SOUTH\r\nOF THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF OF CALIFORNIA. OVERALL\r\nTHERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ASIDE FROM\r\nA SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/0900Z 16.9N 124.7W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     11/1800Z 17.4N 123.5W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/0600Z 18.0N 121.7W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     12/1800Z 18.3N 119.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 48HR VT     13/0600Z 18.7N 117.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB/WILLIS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-10-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 11 2006\r\n\r\nOVER THE PAST FEW HOURS... A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED\r\nJUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF OLIVIA... THOUGH THE CENTER HAS BEEN\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS\r\nHAVEN'T CHANGED MUCH AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE LEFT AT 30\r\nKT.  THIS BURST OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS DRY AIR\r\nIN THE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVELS IS ADVECTED NEAR THE DEPRESSION. \r\nFURTHERMORE... VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG FROM THE\r\nSOUTHWEST... MAKING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY.  THUS A\r\nSPINDOWN INTO A REMNANT LOW IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION... AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE\r\nTOMORROW.  \r\n\r\nOLIVIA HAS TURNED TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND SLOWED... AND IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE MOVING 065/6.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED\r\nOVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES PART OF\r\nLARGE-SCALE WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO.  THE\r\nMODELS ARE GENERALLY INDICATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS\r\nREMNANTS WILL MOVE MORE TO THE EAST THAN IN THE PREVIOUS MODEL\r\nRUNS.  THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO OLIVIA BEING PUSHED MORE TO THE\r\nSOUTH AROUND THE LARGER REMNANT CIRCULATION OF NORMAN.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS\r\nSITUATION AND IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS IN\r\nDEFERENCE TO THE GFDL.  \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/1500Z 17.0N 124.5W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0000Z 17.2N 123.4W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     12/1200Z 17.4N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING\r\n 36HR VT     13/0000Z 17.6N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.8N 116.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-10-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006\r\n \r\nOLIVIA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO ACTIVE CONVECTION.  THE\r\nCLOCK IS TICKING AND WITHOUT A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OLIVIA WILL\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.  SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS\r\nFORECAST TO PERSIST...AND WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER MARGINAL\r\nSSTS...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/6.  THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN\r\nA WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CURRENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TO THE SOUTHWEST\r\nOF THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF NORMAN.  THE GENERAL PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL OLIVIA DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nIS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF A WELL-CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      11/2100Z 17.0N 123.6W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/0600Z 17.1N 122.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     12/1800Z 17.0N 120.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     13/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-10-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006\r\n \r\nAFTER BECOMING A LOW CLOUD SWIRL EARLIER TODAY... SOME INTERMITTENT\r\nBURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. THIS\r\nCONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINALLY\r\nWARM WATERS... SOME ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER TONIGHT. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED AT\r\nTHIS TIME. HOWEVER WE EXPECT OLIVIA TO SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR... AND\r\nDISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/6... SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nTRACK. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY\r\nCURRENT WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION\r\nOCCURS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0300Z 17.3N 122.7W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1200Z 17.4N 121.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/0000Z 17.4N 119.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     13/1200Z 17.4N 117.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-10-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006\r\n \r\nOLIVIA HAS MAINTAINED A VERY SMALL BUT FAIRLY INTENSE CLUSTER OF\r\nTHUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. BUT OTHER THAN THAT...\r\nOLIVIA IS HAVING A BAD HAIR DAY IN TERMS OF MAINTAINING STATUS AS A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE AVAILABLE SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA IS T1.5...OR 25\r\nKT...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/08...OR JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS MOTION. THE SHALLOW TO MEDIUM DEPTH CIRCULATION OF OLIVIA\r\nIS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD...OR EVEN\r\nA LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE EAST... FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. HOWEVER...IF\r\nSOME CONVECTION CAN BE MAINTAINED DURING THAT TIME...A MOTION\r\nSLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE EAST IS POSSIBLE DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR\r\nTUGGING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AS PERIODIC BURSTS OF CONVECTION\r\nOCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS STRAIGHTFORWARD THAN THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST. OLIVIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY WARMER\r\nWATER...AND INTO A REGION OF DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND\r\nINCREASING MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY ASSOCIATED WITH A REGION OF\r\nDISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERATED BY THE ILL-DEFINED\r\nREMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NORMAN. IF OLIVIA CAN\r\nSURVIVE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MOVE INTO\r\nTHIS MORE FAVORABLE REGIME...THEN SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE\r\nBY 36 HOURS AND BEYOND. AN ADDITIONAL FORECAST POSITION AT 48 HOURS\r\nWAS ADDED DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY AND THE INTENSITY IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED AT 25 KT FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/0900Z 17.6N 121.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     12/1800Z 17.7N 120.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/0600Z 17.7N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     13/1800Z 17.6N 116.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/0600Z 17.7N 114.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-10-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n800 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006\r\n\r\nCONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY\r\nONE SMALL CELL REMAINING.  OLIVIA BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS SOON AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES... SO WILL\r\nTHE DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25 KT IN\r\nAGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS.  A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE\r\nVORTEX IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT NEAR THE\r\nSYSTEM. \r\n\r\nOLIVIA HAS BEEN MOVING 080/8 BUT IS LIKELY TO START MOVING DUE EAST\r\nSOON. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED\r\nSTATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. ALMOST ALL\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS THE REMNANT LOW\r\nOF OLIVIA BECOME PART OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE\r\nNORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/1500Z 17.7N 121.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0000Z 17.7N 119.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.6N 117.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     14/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Olivia","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP162006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162006\r\n200 PM PDT THU OCT 12 2006\r\n\r\nANY SCANT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OLIVIA THIS MORNING HAS\r\nVANISHED WITH ONLY A NAKED SWIRL REMAINING ON SATELLITE IMAGES. \r\nTHUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.  A QUIKSCAT\r\nPASS AT 1420 UTC SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 25 KT...\r\nAND THAT ESTIMATE WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS LIKELY AS THE REMNANTS OF OLIVIA BECOME ENTRAINED\r\nEASTWARD INTO THE LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MEXICO.  FOR\r\nADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF OLIVIA PLEASE SEE HIGH\r\nSEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS\r\nHEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 17.5N 120.4W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 17.4N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.3N 117.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Seventeen-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2006-10-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALONG WITH NEARBY\r\nSHIP REPORTS...INDICATE THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 230\r\nNMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS ORGANIZED INTO\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS\r\nBASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB\r\nAND SAB. IN ADDITION...AT 21/0600Z SHIP A8HR7 IN THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT REPORTED 27 KT WINDS...WHILE SHIP SFMN LOCATED ABOUT 45\r\nNMI SOUTH OF THE CENTER REPORTED A WEST WIND OF 25 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10 KT. TD-17E IS EXPECTED TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE\r\nNEXT 36-48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nA NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MASSIVE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW/TROUGH LOCATED OFF THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA\r\nIS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD AND ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BY 48-72 HOURS...ALLOWING THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST\r\nBY 96 HOURS. A 120-HOUR POSITION WAS INCLUDED FOR CONTINUITY\r\nPURPOSES DUE TO POSSIBLE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF\r\nMEXICO BETWEEN 96 AND 120 HOURS. HOWEVER...THIS POSITION IS AN\r\nESTIMATE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS SINCE THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY BE LEFT WELL BEHIND NEAR THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST DUE TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR. RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL LIKELY SPREAD\r\nACROSS NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS ENHANCING THE RAINFALL\r\nPOTENTIAL ACROSS THOSE AREAS BY DAY 5...AND PERHAPS BEYOND.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION POSSESSES A SMALL TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AN\r\nIMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...EASTERLY MID-LEVEL\r\nSHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS TILTING THE\r\nVORTEX TOWARD THE WEST. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING\r\nTHAT TIME. AFTERWARD...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE AND MORE\r\nSIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED UNTIL 96 HOURS WHEN\r\nINCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/0900Z 15.5N 105.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     21/1800Z 15.4N 107.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/0600Z 15.1N 108.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     22/1800Z 15.2N 109.2W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/0600Z 16.0N 110.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/0600Z 18.0N 110.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 109.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     26/0600Z 27.0N 103.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":2,"Date":"2006-10-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED\r\nCONVECTIVE BAND ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER\r\nIS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR.  T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH\r\nTAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY\r\nSHIP SFMN WHICH REPORTED 33 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002.8\r\nMB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA THE\r\nDEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAUL AT THIS TIME. A\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE LOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. PAUL\r\nIS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS INDICATED\r\nBY THE GFDL. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DOING MUCH\r\nIN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITH PAUL.\r\n \r\nPAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270/8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY\r\nOF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO\r\nDAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND\r\nTURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...A\r\nRATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING\r\nFEATURE...FORCING PAUL TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING PAUL NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP\r\nOF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS IS\r\nCONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO\r\nTHE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. RELIABLE MODELS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL\r\nWELL INLAND OVER MEXICO BY DAY FIVE.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/1500Z 16.0N 106.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":3,"Date":"2006-10-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006\r\n \r\nPAUL IS CURRENTLY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE\r\nCENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED IT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 ON\r\nTHE DVORAK SCALE SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD\r\nTO 45 KNOTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE\r\nRELIABLE GFDL MODEL MAKES PAUL A POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH 104 KNOTS\r\nIN ABOUT 4 DAYS...JUST BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.\r\nON THE OTHER HAND...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALSO RELIABLE...\r\nWEAKEN OR DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS PAUL\r\nINTERACTS WITH AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST MEETS HALFWAY AND CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING BUT ONLY TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE.   \r\n\r\nPAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280\r\nDEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE\r\nOF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD\r\nIN ABOUT 2 DAYS. THEREAFTER...PAUL SHOULD ACCELERATE\r\nNORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG\r\nAPPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A FEW\r\nMODELS ONLY...SINCE THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS LOSE THE CIRCULATION\r\nMUCH EARLIER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      21/2100Z 16.1N 107.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/0600Z 16.2N 108.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     22/1800Z 16.6N 109.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/0600Z 17.5N 110.7W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 111.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 109.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     25/1800Z 28.0N 105.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":4,"Date":"2006-10-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 PM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006\r\n \r\nPAUL IS A PARTLY SHEARED SYSTEM THIS EVENING...WITH A COUPLE OF\r\nRECENT SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATING THE CENTER IS JUST EAST OF THE\r\nMAIN CONVECTION AND UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS\r\nAT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR\r\nOVER THE CENTER...ALTHOUGH SOME INCREASE IN OUTFLOW ON THE EAST\r\nSIDE SUGGESTS THE SHEAR MAY BE DECREASING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THAT REMAINS THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 275/6.  OTHER THAN\r\nTHIS...THERE IS NO CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST REASONING\r\nSINCE THE LAST ADVISORY.  PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR\r\n29N124W.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO TURN NORTHWARD BY 36 HR\r\nAND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THEREAFTER.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A MOTION TOWARD\r\nCENTRAL OR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...WHILE THE GFDL REMAINS\r\nFARTHER TO THE RIGHT WITH A TRACK INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS SHOW PAUL SHEARING APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER\r\nMOVING TO BAJA AND THE MID-LEVEL CENTER MOVING CLOSER TO THE GFDL\r\nTRACK.  ON THE PREMISE THAT THE STORM WILL NOT SHEAR APART...THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS BETWEEN THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE GFDL.\r\n\r\nTHE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST PAUL TO BE IN A LIGHT-MODERATE\r\nSHEARING ENVIRONMENT FOR 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME\r\nSTRENGTHENING...WITH THE SHIPS...THE GFDL...AND THE FLORIDA STATE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE ALL FORECASTING  PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE.\r\nAFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STOP\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING\r\nAFTER 48 HR...CALLING FOR PAUL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE...BUT\r\nTHIS LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND KEEP PAUL A 65-KT\r\nHURRICANE FROM 48 HR UNTIL LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON GUIDANCE AND THE\r\nFORECAST MOTION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0300Z 15.9N 108.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1200Z 16.1N 109.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0000Z 16.8N 110.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1200Z 17.9N 110.9W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0000Z 24.5N 108.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     26/0000Z 29.0N 105.0W    20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING\r\n120HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":5,"Date":"2006-10-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006\r\n \r\nPAUL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE STRENGTHENED...WITH JUST A SMALL AREA\r\nOF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE CIRRUS TO THE\r\nEAST OF THE CENTER HAS A HARD EDGE...INDICATING SOME EASTERLY\r\nSHEAR...AND OUTFLOW TO THE WEST IS ALREADY STARTING TO BECOME\r\nRESTRICTED AND DEFLECT NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGE UPPER-LOW\r\nCENTERED SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE\r\nDOWN TO T2.5 SINCE 00Z...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT\r\n45 KT IN ACCORD WITH THE CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.\r\n \r\nMICROWAVE DATA INDICATE AN INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION A SHADE TO\r\nTHE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO\r\nBE 270/7. PAUL IS APPROACHING THE WESTERN END OF A MID- TO\r\nUPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND WILL SOON BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER THE LARGE\r\nUPPER-LOW.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO DEFLECT THE TRACK NORTHWARD AND\r\nTHEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nPRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO...WITH THE DYNAMIC\r\nGUIDANCE FOCUSING ON A TRACK NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...BUT\r\nWITH LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING THAT ARE RELATED TO HOW PAUL\r\nRESPONDS TO THE SHEARING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AFTER\r\nRECURVATURE. THE GFDL RESISTS THE SHEAR...MAKING PAUL A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE AND TAKING IT RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. MUCH OF THE\r\nREMAINING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM WITH A SLOWER\r\nMOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF...WHICH HAS DONE VERY WELL THIS YEAR AT\r\nLONGER RANGES...DISSIPATES PAUL AND MEANDERS THE REMNANTS OFFSHORE.\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT AS FAST AS THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...WELL SLOWER THAN THE GFDL BUT A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE\r\nGFS...UKMET...AND NOGAPS.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE UPPER ENVIROMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY FAVORABLE FOR\r\nDEVELOPMENT AT THE MOMENT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHEAR\r\nWITH ENHANCED OUTFLOW IN A DAY OR SO AND THE WATER IS PLENTY WARM.\r\nTHE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS PAUL TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48\r\nHOURS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY. ONCE\r\nAGAIN...THE GFDL INTENSITY FORECAST APPEARS TOO STRONG IN LIGHT OF\r\nTHE FORECAST SHEAR AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.  IT IS WORTH NOTING\r\nTHAT THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW LITTLE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE\r\nLIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME OF NIGHT MIGHT SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE EITHER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/0900Z 15.8N 108.9W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     22/1800Z 16.0N 110.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/0600Z 17.1N 111.0W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     23/1800Z 18.7N 111.4W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":6,"Date":"2006-10-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 AM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL\r\nCHANGE IN PAUL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK\r\nT-NUMBERS ARE UNANIMOUSLY 3.0 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT.  WHILE PAUL IS CURRENTLY\r\nEXPERIENCING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nINDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL WEAKEN A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR\r\nSO...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A\r\nMORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ABOUT WEAKENING. THE FSU\r\nSUPER-ENSEMBLE AND SHIPS MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THEIR INTENSITY\r\nFORECASTS NO LONGER SHOWING PAUL BECOMING A HURRICANE.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS.  HOWEVER...ANALYSIS\r\nOF THE GFDL FIELDS SHOW THAT THE MODEL IS NOT RESPONDING TO THE\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...AND IS THUS CONSIDERED TOO ROBUST IN ITS INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE...BUT CONTINUES TO SHOW PAUL BECOMING\r\nA MINIMAL HURRICANE OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE GFDL AND CONTINUITY.\r\nBY 72 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW.\r\n \r\nPAUL APPEARS TO BE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST...OR 300/6...AS IT\r\nROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nEXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT\r\n24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE DIVERGES A LITTLE WITH THE\r\nGFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA INTO\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.  THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE THE\r\nRESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL\r\nVORTEX.  THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nA LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. SINCE\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 36\r\nHOURS...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET MODEL.  THIS RESULTS\r\nIN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/1500Z 16.3N 109.1W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.8N 109.8W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0000Z 19.9N 110.7W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1200Z 22.2N 110.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":7,"Date":"2006-10-22 21:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PAUL IS INTENSIFYING WITH\r\nINDICATION OF A FORMATIVE EYE FEATURE IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND\r\nMICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 3.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT.  IN THE SHORT-TERM...PAUL IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER VERY\r\nWARM WATERS. AS A RESULT...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS\r\nFORECAST.  BEYOND 24 HOURS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AND A\r\nMORE STABLE AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. THE\r\nGFDL NO LONGER SHOWS PAUL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND IS NOW\r\nIN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS THROUGH 36\r\nHOURS...BUT IS BELOW THE GUIDANCE THEREAFTER BASED ON LAND\r\nINTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AROUND 48 HOURS...THEN WITH\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO AT 72 HOURS. \r\n \r\nPAUL HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST THAN EARLIER\r\nESTIMATED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 290/7.  DESPITE THE\r\nPERSISTENT WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY...ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nSHOW PAUL SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. \r\nTHEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE\r\nGFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN SHOWING PAUL CONTINUING NORTHWARD INTO\r\nTHE BAJA PENINSULA...WHILE THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST...EFFECTIVELY CLIPPING THE\r\nSOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA.  THIS DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE APPEARS TO\r\nBE THE RESULT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE MODEL\r\nVORTEX.  THOSE MODELS SHOWING A STRONGER AND DEEPER VORTEX TURN THE\r\nCYCLONE MORE NORTHEASTWARD OWING TO THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH A LARGE UPPER LOW FORECAST TO BE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA.\r\nSINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAUL TO BECOME A\r\nHURRICANE...THE FORECAST TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE\r\nMEAN...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS. \r\nTHIS RESULTS IN A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY.\r\n \r\nA TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR\r\nSOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      22/2100Z 15.9N 110.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/0600Z 17.0N 111.3W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     23/1800Z 18.5N 111.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/0600Z 20.4N 111.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     24/1800Z 23.0N 110.0W    60 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     25/1800Z 25.5N 107.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":8,"Date":"2006-10-23 03:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 PM PDT SUN OCT 22 2006\r\n \r\nPAUL IS DEFINITELY ON A STRENGTHENING TREND AND IS NOW A HURRICANE.\r\nAN EYE HAS FORMED ON BOTH VISIBLE AND IR IMAGES AND T-NUMBERS FROM\r\nALL AGENCIES HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 75\r\nKNOTS. PAUL IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW\r\nSHEAR AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE\r\nSHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THE INTENSITY SHOULD LEVEL OFF\r\nFOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. HOWEVER...PAUL IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR\r\nOVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND REACH MAINLAND MEXICO AS A\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nPAUL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 4 KNOTS OR LESS.\r\nA SLOW TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT\r\n12 TO 24 HOURS...AS THE HURRICANE MOVES WITHIN WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID TO UPPER\r\nLEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND\r\nPAUL SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE OF FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THE GDFL IS THE FASTEST MODEL AND BRINGS THE HURRICANE TO\r\nNEAR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND TO MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS A LITTLE BIT\r\nSLOWER THAN THE GFDL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THE GFDL\r\nAND THE SUPERENSEMBLE. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0300Z 16.1N 111.1W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":9,"Date":"2006-10-23 09:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006\r\n \r\nOBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK NUMBERS ARE RUNNING BETWEEN T4.5 AND\r\nT5.0...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS INCREASED TO 85 KT.  THE EYE\r\nHAS BEEN FAIRLY WELL DEFINED IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS SURROUNDED\r\nBY A NARROW RING OF -70C OR COLDER CLOUD TOPS.  OUTFLOW IS STRONG\r\nTO THE NORTH AND SOUTH...BUT LIMITED ZONALLY.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNUSUALLY PROBLEMATIC.  PAUL\r\nWILL VERY SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND INDEED THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...285/4.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LOW\r\nHEADED FOR PAUL...AND THESE COULD REACH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN\r\nANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO.  AS PAUL BEGINS TO RECURVE IN THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nSUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE RIDING ALONG A VERY SHARP\r\nGRADIENT OF VERTICAL SHEAR...AND IT IS ENTIRELY UNCLEAR HOW MUCH\r\nEFFECT THIS SHEAR WILL HAVE ON THE STRUCTURE AND HENCE THE TRACK OF\r\nPAUL.  EVERY GLOBAL MODEL...THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...ECMWF...AND\r\nCANADIAN...SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF PAUL AND LEAVES A WEAK LOW-LEVEL\r\nREMNANT TO LINGER BEHIND.  AND I CAN'T BLAME THIS ON THE\r\nINITIALIZATION...BECAUSE THE UKMET AND NOGAPS EACH HAVE A VERY\r\nWELL-DEFINED INITIAL VORTEX.  ON THE OTHER HAND WE HAVE THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH KEEPS PAUL AS A STRONG AND DEEP HURRICANE AND RACES IT\r\nOFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE MOMENT...THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET\r\nIS TO FAVOR THE GFDL SOLUTION.  INTERESTINGLY...THE FSU\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE...WHICH IS DESIGNED TO SORT OUT MODEL BIASES...ALSO\r\nFAVORS THE GFDL SCENARIO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nSUPERENSEMBLE FORECAST...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE\r\nTRADITIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nTHE SHEAR WILL BE LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND SO SOME\r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY.  AFTER THAT...SOME WEAKENING IS\r\nEXPECTED AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVERTAKES THE CYCLONE.  THE GFDL\r\nSTILL WANTS TO MAKE PAUL A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL BUT IF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE SHEAR RIGHT THIS SEEMS OVERDONE.  THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  BECAUSE OF THE\r\nSHARP SHEAR GRADIENT...A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WOULD KEEP PAUL IN A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WHERE IT\r\nCOULD MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH LONGER.  \r\n\r\nA 72 HOUR POINT IS BEING GIVEN ONLY SO AS NOT TO SHOW THE TRACK\r\nENDING ABRUPTLY OFFSHORE.  I DON'T REALLY EXPECT THE CIRCULATION TO\r\nSURVIVE A PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/0900Z 16.2N 111.5W    85 KT\r\n 12HR VT     23/1800Z 17.2N 111.9W    90 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/0600Z 19.1N 111.3W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     24/1800Z 21.4N 110.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/0600Z 23.6N 108.2W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/0600Z 27.0N 104.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":10,"Date":"2006-10-23 15:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 AM PDT MON OCT 23 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PAUL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW\r\nDISPLAYS A DISTINCT EYE WITH VERY COLD SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS.\r\nSUBJECTIVE DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS WERE UNANIMOUSLY 5.0...OR 90\r\nKT...BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET A LITTLE HIGHER AT 95 KT\r\nBASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS. \r\n\r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE PAUL WILL SOON BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA. \r\nTHIS INTERACTION IS RESULTING IN A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NORTH WITH\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 340/4.  BEYOND 12 HOURS...PAUL\r\nSHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS IS ALWAYS THE CASE\r\nWITH ACCELERATING CYCLONES...ANTICIPATING FORWARD SPEED IS TRICKY.\r\nTHE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND HAS\r\nTHE CYCLONE REACHING BAJA IN ABOUT 36 HOUR...AND MAINLAND MEXICO\r\nWITHIN 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SUFFER\r\nFROM AN UNREALISTICALLY WEAK INITIAL VORTEX WHICH RESULTS IN A MUCH\r\nSLOWER TRACK.  EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH HAVE A MORE\r\nREPRESENTATIVE INITIAL VORTEX SHOW ABRUPT WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT\r\n2 DAYS RESULTING IN A DECELERATION AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES MEXICO. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER\r\nGFDL AND THE SLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO A SLIGHTLY\r\nSLOWER FORECAST THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 72 HOUR\r\nPOINT IS SHOWN SINCE THE 48 HOUR POINT IS NOT QUITE INLAND. \r\nHOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION COULD SURVIVE\r\nA PASSAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.\r\n\r\nIN TERMS OF INTENSITY...PAUL SHOULD BEGIN ENCOUNTERING INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR BEYOND ABOUT 12 HOURS.  ADDITIONALLY...MICROWAVE\r\nDATA SHOWS THAT DRY AIR ALREADY FLANKS THE CYCLONE.  THESE TWO\r\nENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS COULD PROVIDE A ONE-TWO PUNCH...AND THE SHIPS\r\nMODEL RESPONDS ACCORDINGLY BY SHOWING WEAKENING.  HAVING SAID\r\nTHAT...DIAGNOSING SHEAR IN SUCH A COMPLEX DYNAMICAL PATTERN IS\r\nDIFFICULT.  INDEED...THE GFDL MODEL CONTINES TO SHOW MUCH LESS\r\nSHEAR RESULTING IN PAUL REMAINING AN INTENSE HURRICANE UNTIL\r\nNEARING BAJA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE INCREASING\r\nSHEAR AND DRY AIR WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE MODERATE WEAKENING UP\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  ONCE INLAND...MORE ABRUPT\r\nWEAKENING IS EXPECTED. \r\n\r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF\r\nPAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS ONLY A\r\nSLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W    95 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0000Z 17.3N 111.6W   100 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W    95 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0000Z 21.3N 109.6W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.3N 107.9W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     26/1200Z 27.0N 104.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":11,"Date":"2006-10-23 21:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006\r\n \r\nBASED ON AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AND RECENT DEGRADATION OF THE\r\nSATELLITE PRESENTATION...PAUL PROBABLY REACHED ITS MAXIMUM\r\nINTENSITY EARLIER TODAY AND IS NOW WEAKENING.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL\r\nWINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 88 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...SO\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE\r\nINCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ARE BEGINNING TO TAKE THEIR\r\nTOLL...AND SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE...\r\nADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.  THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO\r\nSHOW STRENGTHENING TAKING PAUL TO A CATEGORY 3 CYCLONE WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IN LIGHT OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING AND\r\nEXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE\r\nSHIPS AND FSU SUPER ENSEMBLE.  ONCE INLAND OVER MOUNTAINOUS\r\nMEXICO...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.\r\n \r\nTHE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RATHER PROBLEMATIC AS GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE PAUL IS NOW INTERACTING WITH A LARGE\r\nMIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF CALIFORNIA.\r\nTHIS INTERACTION HAS RESULTED IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 360/4.  PAUL SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT BECOMES\r\nEMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF\r\nTHE TROUGH. DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN DIVERGENT IN THE PREDICTED\r\nFORWARD SPEED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST OF THE\r\nAVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AS IT MAINTAINS A STRONG AND DEEP VORTEX\r\nUNTIL LANDFALL. CONVERSELY...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MUCH WEAKER\r\nAND SHALLOWER CYCLONE RESULTING IN A SLOWER MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND THE\r\nSLOWER GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH EQUATES TO ONLY A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nIT IS IMPORTANT NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF\r\nPAUL...PARTICULARLY FOR RESIDENTS OF SOUTHERN BAJA...AS A HURRICANE\r\nIS NOT A POINT AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE\r\nCENTER.  ADDITIONALLY...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK COULD BRING PAUL CLOSER TO THAT AREA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      23/2100Z 17.0N 111.6W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.2N 111.3W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     24/1800Z 20.1N 110.4W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/0600Z 22.2N 108.9W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     25/1800Z 24.5N 106.5W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":12,"Date":"2006-10-24 03:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006\r\n \r\nTWO AMSU OVERPASSES...AN AMSR-E OVERPASS...AND A WINDSAT OVERPASS\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HR INDICATE THAT PAUL IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...\r\nWITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN\r\nCONVECTION.  THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nSHEAR...ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR MAY BE OCCURRING BELOW THE RATHER\r\nIMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW CIRRUS IN THE NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT\r\nDATA AND THE OBSERVED DECREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT PAUL SHOULD WEAKEN\r\nDURING THE NEXT 48 HR DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE\r\nGFDL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY CALLED FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL...\r\nNOW CALLS FOR PAUL TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MAKE LANDFALL AS A\r\nTROPICAL STORM...AS DOES THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nWILL CALL FOR A LITTLE LESS WEAKENING...WITH PAUL FORECAST TO MAKE\r\nLANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS\r\nSUGGESTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALL OF WHICH SHOWING THE\r\nMID/UPPER-LEVEL CENTER OF PAUL PARTING COMPANY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER...WHICH COULD CAUSE PAUL TO WEAKEN MUCH FASTER THAN\r\nCURRENTLY FORECAST.  THIS IS PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY IN THE\r\nUKMET...WHICH HAS THE 500 MB CENTER WELL EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER\r\nBY 12Z TUESDAY.  \r\n\r\nTHE MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 355/6.   THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS VERY MUCH DEPENDENT ON HOW WELL PAUL HOLDS\r\nTOGETHER.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT PAUL\r\nWILL RETAIN SOME VERTICAL INTEGRITY...AND THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL\r\nACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BETWEEN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE OVER MEXICO AND A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MUCH\r\nOF THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF 35N.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK\r\nIS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS\r\nSOMEWHAT SLOWER BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION.  IF PAUL\r\nSHEARS APART AS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...THERE IS A\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY MEANDER OVER\r\nWATER AND NEVER MAKE LANDFALL.  THE MOST EXTREME EXAMPLE OF THIS IN\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS IS THE UKMET...WHICH NEVER BRINGS THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCENTER NORTH OF 20N.  \r\n \r\nBOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST ARE RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE...\r\nAND THUS INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAUL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0300Z 17.6N 111.7W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1200Z 18.7N 111.6W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0000Z 20.5N 110.6W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1200Z 22.7N 109.1W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N 106.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Paul","Adv":13,"Date":"2006-10-24 09:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AND PAUL NO LONGER\r\nLOOKS LIKE A HURRICANE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. MICROWAVE\r\nDATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW AND MID -LEVEL CENTERS ARE BECOMING\r\nDETACHED. IN FACT...THIS HAS BEEN THE OUTSTANDING SOLUTION PROVIDED\r\nBY THE GLOBAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...FOR QUITE SOMETIME. THE\r\nDVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 70 KNOTS...AND THIS IS ON THE\r\nHIGH SIDE. DATA FROM A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATIC STATION LOCATED AT\r\nSOCORRO ISLAND...NEAR THE HURRICANE...INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE IS\r\nNOT FALLING AND WINDS ARE NOT INCREASING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS INDICATED DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED INCREASING SHEAR.\r\n\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SO THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 005 DEGREES AT\r\nABOUT 7 KNOTS. PAUL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD\r\nOF THE LARGE MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH. CONSEQUENTLY...THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nBEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD\r\nSPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING PAUL'S CIRCULATION NEAR OR TO THE\r\nSOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...\r\nAND NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 36 HOURS. IT IS HARD\r\nTO SAY HOW MUCH OF PAUL WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO GIVEN\r\nTHE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND AND THE RAPID DECOUPLING OF THE\r\nHURRICANE FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS. IN ADDITION...THE GFDL NOW\r\nJOINS THE CLUB AND KEEPS A WEAKENING CYCLONE LINGERING NEAR THE\r\nWEST COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50-KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM AT THE TIME PAUL APPROACHES THE COAST...BUT THIS\r\nAPPEARS TO BE GENEROUS.         \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/0900Z 18.6N 111.4W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     24/1800Z 20.0N 111.0W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/0600Z 22.0N 109.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     25/1800Z 24.0N 107.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/0600Z 26.0N 104.0W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":14,"Date":"2006-10-24 15:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 AM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006\r\n \r\nA RECENT AMSU PASS NEAR 1100 UTC INDICATES THAT PAUL HAS BECOME\r\nDECOUPLED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW SEPARATED FROM THE\r\nDIMINISHING DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION OF THE\r\nCENTER TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE...360/7...REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  SINCE\r\nPAUL IS QUICKLY BECOMING A SHALLOW CYCLONE...IT SHOULD BE STEERED\r\nBY THE LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW.  ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT AND IS SLOWER\r\nTHAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS POINTS THROUGH 48 HOURS ESSENTIALLY TAKING\r\nWHAT IS LEFT OF PAUL JUST SOUTH OF BAJA AND TO THE COAST OF\r\nMAINLAND MEXICO.  HOWEVER...THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS AND SOME\r\nADDITIONAL TRACK ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.\r\n \r\nGIVEN THE PRESENT STRUCTURE...OR LACK THEREOF...AND THE INCREASING\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR...PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT\r\nDAY OR SO.  THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY.\r\nINDEED...PAUL COULD DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS\r\nFORECAST.\r\n \r\nALL WATCHES AND WARNING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\nHOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...SOME OF THE WATCHES\r\nAND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/1500Z 18.9N 112.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0000Z 20.2N 111.7W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1200Z 21.8N 110.6W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0000Z 23.0N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1200Z 24.0N 107.0W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":15,"Date":"2006-10-24 21:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING PAUL\r\nINDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE NOW UP TO 999 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT\r\nBASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN\r\nQUADRANT. WHILE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE\r\nPOSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD\r\nPRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.  INDEED...PAUL COULD\r\nDISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.\r\n \r\nPAUL IS BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION ESTIMATE OF 020/12.  THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS\r\nEXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OR VERY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN\r\nTIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND\r\nOVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY 36 HOURS.\r\n \r\nWHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION APPEARS REMOTE...THE WATCHES\r\nAND WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF THE WEAKENING TREND\r\nCONTINUES...SOME OR ALL OF THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE\r\nDISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      24/2100Z 20.3N 111.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.7N 110.6W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 109.1W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.0N 107.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":16,"Date":"2006-10-25 03:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PAUL IS\r\nPULSING AND HAS A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SIGNATURE.  WHILE DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES ARE STILL AT ABOUT 55 KT...THESE ARE LIKELY\r\nOVERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY BASED ON EARLIER AIR FORCE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA AND AMSU ESTIMATES. THE INTENSITY IS\r\nANALYZED AT 40 KT.  PAUL SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...DESPITE MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY\r\nWARM WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE\r\nSHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE.\r\n \r\nPAUL IS MOVING AT 025/12.  IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nSLOW DOWN AND TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IT IS STEERED BY LOWER\r\nTROPOSPHERIC FLOW AS IT WEAKENS.  A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MAY BE\r\nADVECTED QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS PAUL BECOMES DECAPITATED\r\nBY THE STRONG SHEAR.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS NOW\r\nARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.  ONLY NOGAPS MAINTAINS A\r\nROBUST ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE PICKED UP BY DEEP-LAYERED FLOW AND\r\nHAS THE CYCLONE'S SURFACE CENTER MAKE LANDFALL.  ALL REMAINING\r\nMODELS SUGGEST DISSIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVER THE WATER.\r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK...A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS OF THESE\r\nMODELS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...HAS THE DECAYING CYCLONE MAKING\r\nLANDFALL JUST AT 48 HOURS.  HOWEVER...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT\r\nPAUL'S SURFACE CENTER WILL NOT TOUCH LAND.\r\n \r\nTHE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS BEING\r\nMAINTAINED UNTIL PAUL PASSES THE PENINSULA.  THE TROPICAL STORM\r\nWATCH FOR MAINLAND MEXICO IS DROPPED AS IT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY\r\nTHAT PAUL WILL MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM FORCE INTENSITY...EVEN IF IT\r\nDOES MAKE A LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0300Z 21.1N 110.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1200Z 22.0N 109.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.6N 108.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1200Z 23.1N 107.8W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     27/0000Z 23.6N 106.6W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     28/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":17,"Date":"2006-10-25 09:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006\r\n \r\nPAUL HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE YET DESPITE THE STRONG SHEAR. THE CENTER\r\nIS CURRENTLY LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A BIG BURST OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON\r\nCONTINUITY AND ASSUMING THAT THE CONVECTION WILL NOT PERSIST.\r\nHOWEVER...SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT STRONGER WINDS AT THIS TIME. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A BAND OF 50 TO 60 KT UPPER-LEVEL WINDS\r\nAPPROACHING PAUL AND WITH MASSIVE SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE...\r\nWEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. \r\n\r\nPAUL HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST...AND\r\nIT APPEARS THAT IT HAS BEGUN TO SLOW DOWN...WITH A CURRENT MOTION OF \r\n8 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS\r\nPAUL WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nFLOW. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP A WEAK SURFACE LOW LINGERING\r\nNEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO WHILE THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nCONTINUES RACING EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE CENTER\r\nOF PAUL PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE\r\nNEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN APPROACHING THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION IN A DAY OR SO.  \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/0900Z 21.8N 109.9W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     25/1800Z 22.8N 108.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/0600Z 23.3N 108.0W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     26/1800Z 23.5N 106.5W    20 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     27/0600Z 23.5N 105.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     28/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":18,"Date":"2006-10-25 15:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 AM PDT WED OCT 25 2006\r\n \r\nWHILE PAUL APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME LESS ORGANIZED...LATEST DVORAK\r\nESTIMATES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM SHIP PDAN INDICATES THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE IS CLINGING TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SATELLITE\r\nESTIMATES AND THE HIGHEST WINDS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP. PAUL\r\nIS ALSO MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...050/12...AND IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AS A WEAK TROPICAL\r\nSTORM WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  BASED ON THIS FORECAST...THE\r\nGOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM\r\nMAZATLAN TO ALTATA.  OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING MAINLAND\r\nMEXICO WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  \r\n \r\nPAUL IS NOW MOVING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA MEXICO...AND\r\nALL WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THAT AREA. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/1500Z 23.0N 108.8W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0000Z 23.9N 107.5W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     26/1200Z 24.6N 106.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Paul","Adv":19,"Date":"2006-10-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006\r\n\r\nAFTER TRYING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED EARLIER TODAY...WITH THE\r\nCENTER BECOMING MORE INVOLVED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION...LATEST\r\nVISIBLE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS AGAIN BECOMING\r\nDECOUPLED FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE CENTER IS NEARING\r\nTHE COASTLINE AND SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN SEVERAL HOURS.  HOWEVER IF\r\nTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BECOMES COMPLETELY DECOUPLED...PAUL OR ITS\r\nREMNANT COULD LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST.  IN ANY\r\nEVENT...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEGRADING STRUCTURE...THE SYSTEM WILL\r\nPROBABLY NOT MAINTAIN STORM STRENGTH MUCH LONGER.  DISSIPATION\r\nSHOULD OCCUR RAPIDLY ONCE THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND.\r\n\r\nEVEN IN A WEAKENED STATE THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT\r\nRAINFALL THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS\r\nTERRAIN OF MEXICO.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2100Z 24.0N 107.5W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 24.5N 106.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":20,"Date":"2006-10-25 23:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n400 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006\r\n\r\nSATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY BECOME\r\nLESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH DEEP CONVECTION\r\nRACING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE\r\nPURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO DOWNGRADE PAUL TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...LOWER THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING... AND ADJUST THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST.\r\n\r\nPAUL HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360 AT 7 KT DURING THE PAST FEW\r\nHOURS OR SO AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE\r\nCIRCULATION DISSIPATES.  NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED\r\nDUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES\r\nA SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      25/2300Z 24.4N 108.1W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/0600Z 25.0N 108.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     26/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":21,"Date":"2006-10-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n800 PM PDT WED OCT 25 2006\r\n \r\nA NAKED SWIRL IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS ALL THAT IS LEFT OF PAUL\r\nTONIGHT. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE\r\nBEEN PULLED NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT.  IF PAUL DOES NOT REGENERATE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... AND IT IS NOT EXPECTED\r\nTO... PAUL WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW OVERNIGHT.\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE WEST OF DUE NORTH FOR THE\r\nPAST FEW HOURS AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL\r\nDISSIPATION. THIS SYSTEM STILL POSES A RAINFALL THREAT OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0300Z 24.7N 108.1W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1200Z 25.8N 108.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Paul","Adv":22,"Date":"2006-10-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP172006","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006\r\n200 AM PDT THU OCT 26 2006\r\n \r\nPAUL MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA REFORMA MEXICO AROUND 0500 UTC...AND THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER LAND.  SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nDEPICTS PAUL AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP\r\nCONVECTION.  THE SURFACE CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE DISRUPTED\r\nBY THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN MEXICO AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER\r\nTODAY.  HOWEVER...THE REMNANTS OF PAUL COULD STILL POSE A RAINFALL\r\nTHREAT OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL\r\nHOURS. \r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/7...AND A NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON PAUL. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      26/0900Z 25.2N 107.8W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     26/1800Z 26.2N 107.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER MAINELLI\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eight","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-08-28 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM  CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\n...CORRECTION TO SAB DVORAK T-NUMBER...\r\n\r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS\r\nBEEN TRACKED WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL DAYS HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH SURFACE CIRCULATION AND DEEP\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A\r\nSHIP VERY NEAR THE CENTER ALSO REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1005 MB NEAR\r\nTHE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 AND 2.0\r\nRESPECTIVELY. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 30 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH\r\nTHE CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE\r\nCONVECTION...THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS BEEN GRADUALLY ABATING AND THE OUTFLOW IS BECOMING ESTABLISHED\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT RIDGING\r\nWILL PREVAIL ALOFT...RESULTING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR. A\r\nGRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS\r\nINTENSITY MODEL...AND THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A TROPICAL\r\nSTORM LATER TODAY AND COULD REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 3 DAYS.\r\nTHE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...PREDICTING AN\r\nINTENSE HURRICANE.    \r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5\r\nKNOTS WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS. THE LARGE\r\nTROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS FORECAST TO\r\nBE REPLACED BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.\r\nTHIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nTRACK IN A DAY OR SO. THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER-LOW JUST NORTH OF\r\nPUERTO RICO COULD ALSO INDUCE SOME WESTWARD COMPONENT OVER THE NEXT\r\nFEW DAYS. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE STEERING FLOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A WHILE. THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS BASICALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE\r\nWHICH INDEED SHOWS A WESTWARD TRACK BEYOND 4 DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/0900Z 19.8N  57.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N  58.8W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/0600Z 22.0N  60.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     29/1800Z 23.5N  62.5W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/0600Z 25.0N  64.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/0600Z 26.0N  67.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/0600Z 27.0N  69.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/0600Z 27.0N  70.5W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-08-28 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS IMPROVED DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS AND LATEST DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATE WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON\r\nTHIS INFORMATION...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM\r\nHANNA. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT HANNA'S LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS\r\nPARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION\r\nINDICATING WESTERLY SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO\r\nTHE WEST IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM. SINCE THE OCEAN IS PLENTY\r\nWARM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PRIMARILY A FUNCTION OF HOW HANNA\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL LOW TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS\r\nPLACING HANNA IN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH AMPLE\r\nDIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR\r\nINTENSIFICATION SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE.  HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE\r\nCASE...THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN A FAVORABLE AND UNFAVORABLE\r\nENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THERE\r\nWILL BE SUFFICIENT SPACING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND HANNA TO\r\nPROMOTE STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV\r\nCOULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE\r\nINTENSITY. \r\n \r\nHANNA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...OR 300/10...DURING\r\nTHE LAST 6 HOURS.  HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS\r\nEXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS HANNA MOVES AROUND THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nTRACK BECOMES MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW HANNA\r\nWILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE\r\nOFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW HANNA\r\nBEING LEFT BEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nTRADITIONALLY GOOD PERFORMING GFS FORECASTS HANNA TO TURN\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THE\r\nFORMER OF THOSE SCENARIOS AND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/1500Z 20.5N  59.2W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0000Z 21.4N  60.4W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1200Z 22.8N  61.9W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0000Z 24.4N  63.7W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1200Z 25.7N  65.6W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1200Z 27.0N  68.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1200Z 27.5N  70.0W    75 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1200Z 27.5N  71.5W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-08-28 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER LOOKING QUITE IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS\r\nMORNING...VERTICAL SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON HANNA AND THE\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EXPOSED.  WHILE IT IS\r\nTEMPTING TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BASED ON THIS TREND...IT IS BEST TO\r\nKEEP HANNA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE LACK\r\nOF ORGANIZATION NOTWITHSTANDING...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY\r\nREMAINS UNCHANGED. DYNAMICAL MODELS INSISTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW CURRENTLY IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE\r\nWESTWARD ALLOWING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING TO\r\nDEVELOP OVER THE CYCLONE.  SIMILARLY...THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS\r\nARE BASING THEIR FORECAST ON A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  ANALYSIS OF\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS NOT\r\nBUDGED ALL DAY SO IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT RELAX IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nWHICH IS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  IF THE UPPER-LOW\r\nDOES EVENTUALLY MOVE OUT OF HANNA'S WAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS\r\nWOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. BY DAY 5...UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM\r\nGUSTAV COULD IMPART NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA POSSIBLY AFFECTING\r\nTHE INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nHANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...OR 300/10.  HOWEVER...A\r\nMOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS\r\nHANNA IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOMES A DEEPER SYSTEM.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE TRACK FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY AS IT\r\nIS UNCLEAR HOW HANNA WILL INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE TROUGH BYPASSING HANNA TO THE NORTH AND LEAVING IT\r\nBEHIND IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING. SUCH AN EVOLUTION WOULD RESULT\r\nIN ERRATIC OR LITTLE OVERALL MOTION. ACCORDINGLY...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  IT SHOULD BE\r\nADDED THAT THERE IS LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nBOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS OF HANNA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      28/2100Z 20.7N  60.1W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/0600Z 21.7N  61.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     29/1800Z 23.4N  63.4W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/0600Z 24.9N  65.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     30/1800Z 25.9N  67.0W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     31/1800Z 27.0N  69.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     01/1800Z 27.5N  70.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     02/1800Z 27.5N  71.5W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-08-29 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2008\r\n \r\nAFTER WESTERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR PRODUCED AN EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED WITH A\r\nVENGEANCE OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER CONTAINING CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS\r\n-83C. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE A BURSTING\r\nPATTERN...WHICH IS USUALLY SHORT-LIVED. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS\r\n45 KT BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND THE\r\nCONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SINCE THE 00Z SATELLITE FIX TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/06. HANNA HAD BEEN MOVING DUE\r\nWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT...BUT THE 24-HOUR MOTION OF THE PRESSURE\r\nENVELOPE SURROUNDING THE CYCLONE CENTER HAS ONLY BEEN MOVING AT\r\nAROUND 5 KT. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISMS FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS\r\nWILL BE THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA AND THE\r\nMID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED ABOUT 275 NMI WEST OF HANNA. ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING AND MOVING THE UPPER-LOW TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST TOO QUICKLY...WHICH IS LIKELY DUE TO THE FAST OUTFLOW\r\nFROM GUSTAV GETTING ENTRAINED INTO THE LOW AND KEEPING IT STRONGER\r\nTHAN THE MODEL FORECASTS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV IS NOW\r\nBEING SHUNTED SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SO A\r\nWEAKENING TREND AND SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BY THE UPPER-LOW IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ENSUE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HANNA IS FORECAST TO\r\nMOVE AROUND THE UPPER-LOW THROUGH 72-96 HOURS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS\r\nSTRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A POWERFUL\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S.\r\nEAST COAST AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THAT DEVELOPING SCENARIO IS INDICATED\r\nBY ALMOST ALL OF THE MODELS TO VARYING DEGREES...BUT ENOUGH TO\r\nINDUCE SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO HANNA'S MOTION. MOST OF THE\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE HAS HAD A FAST AND RIGHT-OF-TRACK BIAS THE PAST 36\r\nHOURS...SO THE FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS ADJUSTED TO THE\r\nLEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nMODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN REPLACED BY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR\r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS NOW THAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF\r\nWEAKENING AND MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM HANNA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES\r\nTO WEAKEN AND MOVES TO A POSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF HANNA...\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD IMPROVE TO THE NORTHWEST AIDING A STEADY\r\nINTENSIFICATION. ALTHOUGH NOT INDICATED AT ANY OF THE FORECAST\r\nTIMES... ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME\r\nQUITE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING BETWEEN 72 AND 96\r\nHOURS...AND HANNA COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE AS INDICATED BY\r\nTHE GFDL MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE LGEM MODEL.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0300Z 21.1N  60.6W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1200Z 21.8N  62.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0000Z 23.2N  64.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1200Z 24.6N  66.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0000Z 25.7N  68.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0000Z 26.6N  70.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0000Z 26.5N  71.2W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0000Z 26.0N  71.6W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-08-29 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS BEGUN TO MOVE\r\nAWAY...IT IS STILL PRODUCING SHEAR OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONCE\r\nAGAIN THE CENTER HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS\r\nNOW CONFINED TO A CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND IN THE EASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T-NUMBERS STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF\r\n45 KNOTS...BUT WITH THE CURRENT SHEARED PATTERN...THIS ESTIMATE\r\nCOULD BE GENEROUS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPEARS TO\r\nBE THE KEY PLAYER FOR BOTH THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF HANNA FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IF THE LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY AS INDICATED\r\nBY GLOBAL MODELS...THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES A GOOD SOLUTION FROM\r\nGLOBAL MODELS AND CALLS FOR A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION FROM 24 TO 72\r\nHOURS. THE FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL BUT DOES NOT\r\nSHOWS AS MUCH STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND HWRF. \r\n\r\nHANNA HAS BEEN MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER-LOW AND THE\r\nBEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. A\r\nGENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE\r\nNEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW\r\nBETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BEYOND 3\r\nDAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE CARVING A LARGE TROUGH OVER\r\nTHE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND DEVELOPING A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN\r\nUNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA ON A SLOW\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY TRACK BEYOND THREE DAYS...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nSHOWS A LITTLE BIT OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION BUT DOES NOT GO AS\r\nFAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE MODELS. IN FACT...THE GFS HAS\r\nJOINED THE REST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS IN BRINGING THE CYCLONE\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD. I PREFER TO WAIT FOR MORE MODEL RUNS BEFORE FORECAST\r\nSUCH A RARE BUT NOT UNIQUE TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/0900Z 21.7N  62.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     29/1800Z 22.6N  64.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N  66.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     30/1800Z 25.3N  68.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/0600Z 26.0N  70.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/0600Z 26.0N  71.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/0600Z 25.5N  72.2W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/0600Z 25.0N  73.0W    75 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-08-29 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nA 1031 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WAS VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER\r\nOF HANNA EARLY THIS MORNING.  VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THAT THE CENTER\r\nBRIEFLY BECAME EXPOSED...HOWEVER...NEW CONVECTION FORMED SINCE THAT\r\nTIME AND THE CENTER IS POSITIONED JUST BENEATH THE COLDER CLOUD\r\nTOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO\r\nSUPPORT 45 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED.  IN THE\r\nNEAR TERM...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LOW TO THE\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN...WHICH\r\nSHOULD RELAX THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THAT IS CURRENTLY IMPINGING\r\nUPON THE CYCLONE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SOLUTION\r\nAND CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS...\r\nBRINING HANNA TO HURRICANE STATUS.  THEREAFTER THERE IS A LARGE\r\nAMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nPREDICT STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER\r\nHANNA...WHICH ONE WOULD THINK SHOULD HALT ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING\r\nOR EVEN WEAKEN THE STORM.  HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL OF THE INTENSITY\r\nGUIDANCE SHOW STRENGTHENING OR LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THAT\r\nTIME.  ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR WILL PRODUCE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON\r\nHANNA...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS PERSISTENCE OF PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND IS A LITTLE BELOW MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nHANNA MOVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nIN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST\r\nMOTION.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWARD TURN..SOUTH OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...THE SHARPNESS OF THE TURN\r\nAND SPEED OF MOTION VARIES GREATLY.  THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN\r\nADJUSTED SOUTHWARD DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY DUE TO\r\nTHE MORE WESTWARD INITIAL MOTION.  THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE MODEL CONSENSUS.  AFTER 72 HOURS...THE NEW TRACK IS A LITTLE\r\nFASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS NOTICEABLY SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS.  THE HWRF...WHICH SHOWS A CYCLONIC LOOP\r\nNORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5...IS\r\nCONSIDER AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nINTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS SHOULD\r\nMONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HANNA.  IMPACTS IN THESE AREAS COULD OCCUR\r\nMUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE EXACT TRACK...ESPECIALLY IF THE\r\nMORE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DOES NOT MATERIALIZED LATER TODAY OR ON\r\nSATURDAY.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/1500Z 21.3N  62.7W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0000Z 22.2N  64.5W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1200Z 23.6N  66.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0000Z 24.6N  68.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1200Z 25.1N  70.1W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1200Z 24.7N  71.6W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1200Z 24.0N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1200Z 23.0N  73.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-08-29 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HANNA REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RATHER\r\nSHAPELESS AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.  A \r\n1412 UTC ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 40 KT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE.  GIVEN THE LOW BIAS TYPICAL OF ASCAT WINDS IN THIS\r\nRANGE...IT SUPPORTS MAINTAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 45 KT. \r\nTHIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM \r\nTAFB AND SAB WHICH REMAIN T3.0 OR 45 KT.\r\n \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED A \r\nCOUPLE HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF HANNA HAS NOT BUDGED\r\nTODAY AND IT CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN EMPHATIC \r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE WEST OR WEST-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN...ALLOWING HANNA TO GRADUALLY\r\nSTRENGTHEN.  THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR\r\nSOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS BUT SHOWS A LOWER\r\nPEAK INTENSITY THAN WAS FORECAST IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IN\r\nABOUT 3 DAYS...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRONG NORTHWEST TO\r\nNORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THESE WINDS ARE\r\nPARTIALLY THE RESULT OF OUTFLOW FROM GUSTAV.  DESPITE THE HOSTILE\r\nUPPER-LEVEL WIND FORECAST...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT PREDICT\r\nWEAKENING.  OUR INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE AND STILL ASSUMES THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR WILL HAVE A\r\nNEGATIVE IMPACT ON HANNA'S INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nHANNA CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/9.  IN\r\nGENERAL...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER\r\nAGREEMENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF HANNA.  THE TROPICAL STORM IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE HWRF\r\nCONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER SHOWING A CYCLONIC LOOP NORTH OF THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER \r\nAND FARTHER WEST THEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      29/2100Z 21.8N  63.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/0600Z 22.8N  65.4W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     30/1800Z 24.0N  67.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/0600Z 24.8N  69.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     31/1800Z 25.0N  71.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     01/1800Z 24.5N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     02/1800Z 23.7N  73.7W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  75.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-08-30 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT HANNA REMAINS WITHIN A\r\nVERY HARSH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION...EXPOSED WELL WEST OF THE REMAINING CONVECTIVE\r\nBAND...PASSED ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF BUOY 41043 WHICH RECORDED A\r\nSEA LEVEL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.  CONSEQUENTLY...HANNA'S CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 1002 MB BASED ON THIS DATA.  A\r\nQUIKSCAT OVERPASS JUST CAME IN A FEW MINUTES AGO AND INDICATED THAT\r\nTHE CIRCULATION MAY BE JUST A BIT SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY POSITION AS\r\nWELL AS ALSO REVEALING A FEW BELIEVABLE 40-45 KT WINDS OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT\r\n45 KT.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF CYCLONE WILL\r\nEITHER INCREASE IN DISTANCE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WITH TIME OR\r\nWEAKEN AND OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH.  THE SHIPS MODEL FOLLOWS SUIT BY\r\nSUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...WHICH\r\nIS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING\r\nTHROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE\r\nFORECAST...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW STRONG NORTH TO\r\nNORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SETTING UP OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC...WHICH COULD ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY HURRICANE GUSTAV'S\r\nOUTFLOW PATTERN.  SINCE THERE IS A CONSENSUS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF\r\nAN INHIBITING SYNOPTIC UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...A WEAKENING IS\r\nINDICATED THROUGH DAY 5.\r\n \r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 295/12...WITHIN THE DEEP LAYER\r\nEAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF\r\nTHE CYCLONE.  THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS INTACT FROM THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL\r\nBLEND THROUGH 72 HOURS.  BEYOND THE DAY 3 PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS NUDGED TOWARD THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND OF THE GFS\r\nAND UKMET MODELS WHICH APPEAR TO BE DEPICTING THE SHEARED VERTICAL\r\nSTRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0300Z 22.1N  65.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1200Z 22.9N  67.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0000Z 23.9N  69.2W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1200Z 24.5N  70.8W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0000Z 24.6N  72.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0000Z 24.4N  73.4W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0000Z 23.6N  75.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0000Z 23.0N  76.3W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-08-30 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA. \r\nTHE CENTER CONTINUES TO RUN AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION AND NEW\r\nTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS OVER IT. THIS MEANS THAT THE SHEAR\r\nHAS NOT RELAXED YET. A NOAA BUOY...41043...HAS BEEN EXTREMELY USEFUL\r\nIN TRACKING THE CYCLONE.  IT HAS DEPICTED THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND HAS RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF NEAR 1002 MB. AS LONG AS THE\r\nMODERATE SHEAR PREVAILS...CAUSED BY THE RESILIENT UPPER-LOW...HANNA\r\nMOST LIKELY WILL NOT STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR NO\r\nCHANGE\r\nIN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. GLOBAL MODELS INSIST\r\nON WEAKENING THE UPPER-LOW...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT\r\nFOR HANNA TO STRENGTHEN IN THE PERIOD BETWEEN 12 AND 48 HOURS.\r\nTHEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AND THIS IS\r\nREFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BY SHOWING SOME SLIGHT\r\nWEAKENING. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY HANNA...SOME OF\r\nTHEM QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY...DESPITE THE SHEAR. I DO NOT HAVE AN\r\nEXPLANATION FOR IT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON IR IMAGES BUT SATELLITE\r\nFIXES AND DATA FROM THE NOAA BUOY SUGGEST THAT HANNA HAS BEEN\r\nMOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. FOR ABOUT 12 TO 24\r\nHOURS...A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AROUND THE UPPER-LOW IS\r\nANTICIPATED. THEREAFTER...A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WHICH IS\r\nFORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF HANNA WILL THEN PROVIDE THE\r\nDOMINANT STEERING FLOW. THIS SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A\r\nWESTWARD AND THEN AN EVEN SLOWER WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. I TRIED\r\nVERY HARD NOT TO FORECAST THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN SINCE THIS IS NOT\r\nA VERY COMMON TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK BUT RELIABLE DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE HAS FORCED ME TO DO SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nPRACTICALLY ON TOP OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  I ALWAYS WONDERED HOW\r\nTODAY'S SOPHISTICATED DYNAMICAL MODELS WOULD HAVE FORECAST\r\nHURRICANE BETSY BACK IN 1965. THIS HURRICANE MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD\r\nOVER THE BAHAMAS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/0900Z 21.9N  66.3W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     30/1800Z 22.6N  68.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/0600Z 23.3N  70.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     31/1800Z 23.5N  71.5W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  72.5W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N  74.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/0600Z 23.0N  75.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/0600Z 22.5N  77.0W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-08-30 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nHANNA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES BELOW -80 DEGREES C. HOWEVER...THE CENTER OF\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS\r\nCONVECTION.  THE EXACT CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS A\r\nCOUPLE OF SMALL VORTICES HAVE BEEN SEEN ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER\r\nCIRCULATION THIS MORNING.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN\r\nT3.0 OR 45 KT AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGEST MAXIMUM WINDS\r\nWERE NEAR THAT VALUE.  THERE WERE SOME STRONGER WINDS SEEN IN THE \r\nQUIKSCAT DATA...BUT THESE WINDS WERE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER\r\nAND APPEAR TO HAVE BEEN RAIN-INFLATED.\r\n\r\nTHE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/7.  HANNA HAS\r\nCONTINUED TO MOVE MORE WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 12-24 HOURS...WHICH\r\nHAS REQUIRED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE TRACK FORECAST IN\r\nTHE SHORT-TERM.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A GENERAL WEST TO\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nTHERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS...AS A STRONG HIGH\r\nPRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GFDL AND\r\nHWRF RESPOND BY SHOWING A VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IN ABOUT 3\r\nDAYS...WHILE THE UKMET TURNS HANNA SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS EASTERN\r\nCUBA.  VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND\r\nSEVERAL OF THE FORECAST MODELS NOW INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nAROUND DAY 5.  THE NEW FORECAST WHICH IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT SMOOTHS THROUGH THESE POSSIBLE UNDULATIONS \r\nAND SHOWS A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN 72-120 HOURS. THE NEW\r\nTRACK IS GENERALLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE MUCH DISCUSSED UPPER-LOW JUST WEST OF THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE\r\nWEAKENED A LITTLE THIS MORNING.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR MAY RELAX JUST A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nGIVEN THE RESILIENCE OF HANNA...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A\r\nLITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. \r\nTHEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE\r\nFORECAST...SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW KEEPS HANNA JUST\r\nBELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED ONCE AGAIN...THAT THE\r\nNHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS\r\nISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND\r\nTURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/1500Z 21.9N  66.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0000Z 22.4N  67.9W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1200Z 22.9N  69.6W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0000Z 23.2N  71.0W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1200Z 23.2N  72.1W    60 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  73.5W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1200Z 23.0N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N  76.5W    55 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-08-30 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN OF HANNA HAS CHANGED QUITE A BIT DURING THE DAY\r\nTODAY.  THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BECOME INVOLVED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nLOW THAT WAS LOCATED TO ITS WEST...AND HANNA NOW HAS SOME\r\nRESEMBLANCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS\r\nLOCATED WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BANDING OVER\r\nTHE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE STILL YIELD INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0\r\nOR 45 KT FROM BOTH AGENCIES.\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AT\r\nABOUT 7 KT TODAY.  A SIMILAR MOTION IS FORECAST BY THE NUMERICAL\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS\r\nNEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DURING THAT TIME.  THEREAFTER...THE\r\nMODEL SPREAD HAS BECOME EXTREMELY LARGE AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE\r\nRIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW\r\nPREDICTS A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF HANNA DURING THE 48 TO ABOUT\r\n96 HOUR TIME FRAME.  THE GFDL AND HWRF BOTH PREDICT HANNA TO MAKE A\r\nCYCLONIC LOOP NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF\r\nAND UKMET SHOW A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION...WITH THE LATTER MODEL\r\nFORECASTING HANNA TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA.  BEYOND 96 HOURS...\r\nNEARLY ALL OF THE GUIDANCE...EXCEPT THE UKMET...NOW FORECAST A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO RESUME AS THE RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS.  WITH ALL OF THAT SAID...\r\nTHERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nSLOWS DOWN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY...AND NOW PREDICTS A SLOW\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD.  THE NHC TRACK IS A\r\nLITTLE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS...ESPECIALLY AT DAY 5...BUT IS IN\r\nGENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF.\r\n \r\nGIVEN ALL THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST SEEMS JUST AS DIFFICULT.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND SHIPS\r\nGUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL CONTINUE\r\nDURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW HANNA WILL RESPOND TO THE\r\nSHEAR...THE INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME STRENGTHENING IN THE\r\nSHORT-TERM...BUT LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY BETWEEN 36-96 HOURS. \r\nTHERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT COULD\r\nBECOME MORE CONDUCIVE VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD...SO SLIGHT\r\nSTRENGTHENING IS INDICATE AT DAY 5.  THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW\r\nALL OF THE RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nTHE 12-FT SEA RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NOAA BUOY 41046.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      30/2100Z 22.4N  67.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/0600Z 22.8N  68.6W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     31/1800Z 23.3N  70.2W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  71.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     01/1800Z 23.5N  72.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     02/1800Z 23.5N  72.8W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     03/1800Z 24.0N  74.0W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     04/1800Z 25.0N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-08-31 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008\r\n \r\nENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICT A\r\nCONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE VERTICAL STRUCTURE\r\nOF THE HANNA HAS TRANSFORMED INTO A SYSTEM SIMILAR TO A SUBTROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE...WITH A SLIGHT TILT TO THE WEST WITH HEIGHT.  THE CYCLONE\r\nHAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE PARTLY\r\nEXPOSED CENTER...PARTICULARLY OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS. \r\nTHERE APPEARS TO BE SOME MODERATE SUBSIDENCE SPREADING OVER THE\r\nAREA PRODUCED BY CONVERGING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW\r\nNOW ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA AND GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW PATTERN...WITH THIS\r\nDRYER MORE STABLE AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM'S CORE.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT BASED ON DVORAK AND\r\nHEBERT/POTEAT INTENSITY TECHNIQUES...AS WELL AS A QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nTHAT SUPPORTED THIS INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY\r\nSHEAR AROUND THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE\r\nSOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AFTERWARD.  THE SHIPS AND THE LGEM\r\nAGREE WITH GRADUAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nAPPEARS...THEN THE MODELS AGREE WITH LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE 72\r\nHOUR PERIOD.  BEYOND DAY 3...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE A HINT\r\nOF A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER WIND ENVIRONMENT...WHICH THE\r\nAFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALSO DEPICT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS\r\nTHIS PHILOSOPHY AND INDICATES SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AT THE 120\r\nHOUR PERIOD.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/7.  DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT AN ANCHORED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD INFLUENCE A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTERWARD...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE LOW AND ASSOCIATED\r\nTROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN A\r\nPORTION OF THE RIDGE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE BAHAMAS\r\nWHILE A HIGH AMPLITUDE BLOCKING HIGH SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN\r\nSEABOARD.  THIS PARTICULAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HANNA TO\r\nTEMPORARILY SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE 72 HOUR PERIOD WHILE\r\nMAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF\r\nTHE FORECAST...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHEAST OF\r\nHANNA IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE LOW LIFTING OUT\r\nAND MOVING AWAY FROM THE NORTHEAST COAST.  THE MODEL SPREAD REMAINS\r\nRATHER LARGE...HOWEVER...THE MAJORITY ARE SHOWING A TURN TOWARD THE\r\nNORTHWEST OVER OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS BEYOND 72 HOURS...WHILE THE\r\nUKMET IS STILL PREDICTING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO REMAIN INTACT\r\nTO THE NORTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS\r\nAND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT INDICATES A MORE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEYOND DAY 3.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0300Z 22.9N  67.8W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1200Z 23.3N  69.0W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0000Z 23.6N  70.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1200Z 23.6N  71.4W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0000Z 23.6N  72.2W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0000Z 23.8N  73.1W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0000Z 24.5N  74.5W    55 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0000Z 26.5N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-08-31 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS BEEN GOING THROUGH SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES THAT HAVE\r\nRESEMBLED A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AT TIMES AS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD LOW\r\nAND DRY AIR HAVE BECOME ENTANGLED WITH THE INNER-CORE CIRCULATION.\r\nHOWEVER...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED\r\nTHAT THE UPPER-LOW HAS BEGUN TO DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARD HISPANIOLA\r\n...WHICH MAY ALLOW HANNA TO TRANSITION BACK INTO A FULL WARM CORE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT\r\nAND THE WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NORTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE BASED ON A 30/2231Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS THAT WAS NOT\r\nAVAILABLE FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB ARE ST3.0/45 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE AT 290/10. ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nNOW INDICATES SOME SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO HANNA'S TRACK BY 48 HOURS\r\nAS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW IMPINGES ON THE CYCLONE BEHIND A DIGGING\r\nTROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST COMBINED WITH OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE\r\nGUSTAV LOCATED WELL TO THE WEST OF HANNA. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES\r\nAT LEAST 30 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS HANNA AT 48 HOURS...WHICH\r\nSHOULD ACT TO DISPLACE ANY DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE SOUTHERN\r\nSEMICIRCLE AND ALSO HELP TO FORCE THE CYCLONE SOUTHWARD. SHOULD\r\nHANNA BE STRIPPED OF ALL CONVECTION AROUND THAT TIME PERIOD...THE\r\nSHALLOW BAM MODEL ALSO INDICATES A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION\r\n...INCLUDING A CYCLONIC LOOP. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS... NEARLY ALL OF\r\nTHE MODELS FORECAST THE STRONG UPPER-TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND BE REPLACED BY A LARGE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF\r\nHANNA. THE LATTER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INDUCE A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION BY DAYS 4 AND 5. THE KEY TO THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK AT THOSE FORECAST TIMES WILL BE JUST HOW FAR SOUTH\r\nAND WEST HANNA MOVES BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD. MOST\r\nOF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS HANNA OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE\r\nBAHAMAS...THE EXCEPTION BEING THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS...WHICH\r\nBRING HANNA NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA BY DAY 4 AND INTO\r\nTHE FLORIDA STRAITS BY DAY 5. AT THIS TIME...THE SPECIFICS OF THOSE\r\nTWO TRACKS ARE CONSIDERED TO BE OUTLIERS...BUT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN\r\nENTIRELY DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK AND THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT TRICKY. WITH MORE THAN 30 KT OF\r\nSHEAR FORECAST TO AFFECT HANNA BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE COULD\r\nEASILY BE SHEARED APART. HOWEVER...WHILE THE SHEAR WILL BE\r\nSTRONG...ITS NEGATIVE EFFECTS MAY BE OFFSET BY THE STRONG\r\nUPPER-LEVEL DIFLUENT PATTERN THAT IS ALSO FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS\r\nHANNA AT THAT TIME. BY 72-96 HOURS...ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE ON\r\nANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW REPLACING THE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR\r\nPATTERN...INCLUDING OUTFLOW JETS DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND\r\nSOUTH...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OVER 29-30C\r\nSSTS BENEATH THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN\r\nHELD BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY OF WHAT THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF HANNA WILL BE AFTER THE\r\nUPCOMING STRONG SHEAR PATTERN ABATES IN AROUND 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/0900Z 23.2N  69.0W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     31/1800Z 23.6N  70.2W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/0600Z 23.7N  71.4W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     01/1800Z 23.7N  72.5W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N  73.1W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/0600Z 23.6N  73.9W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/0600Z 25.1N  75.4W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/0600Z 28.0N  78.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-08-31 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n \r\nHANNA'S OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE REMAINS RATHER RAGGED AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION IS LIMITED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES AND NEARBY BUOY 41046.  HANNA WILL ENCOUNTER A RATHER\r\nCOMPLICATED ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS\r\nMAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST PROBLEMATIC.  WHILE MOST OF THE\r\nDYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER\r\nHANNA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...THEY HAVE NOT NECESSARILY HAD THE\r\nBEST TRACK RECORD FORECASTING THIS FEATURE.  EVEN IF THE UPPER-LOW\r\nDOES WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW COULD\r\nPRODUCE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA.  INDEED WATER VAPOR\r\nIMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A DEFORMATION AXIS FORMING NORTH OF HANNA\r\nAS A RESULT OF GUSTAV'S OUTFLOW INTERACTING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW\r\nAROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.   BOTTOM LINE...THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS\r\nRATHER HOSTILE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD LIMIT THE\r\nPOTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION.  DYNAMICAL MODELS DO\r\nINDICATE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT TOWARD THE\r\nEND OF THE FORECAST AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR\r\nAXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA.  HOWEVER...ACCURATELY PREDICTING\r\nTHE ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH HANNA WILL BE LOCATED AT DAYS 4 AND 5 IS\r\nDIFFICULT...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  \r\n\r\nHANNA IS CURRENTLY SITUATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY\r\nOR SO AS A LARGE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A\r\nREDUCTION IN HANNA'S FORWARD SPEED AND POSSIBLY SOME ERRATIC\r\nMOTION.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE DEEP-LAYERED TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT\r\nNORTHEASTWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK WESTWARD IN ITS\r\nWAKE.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING HANNA NORTHWEST\r\nWITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  HOWEVER...THE UKMET MODEL\r\nACTUALLY SHOWS THE RIDGE AXIS BUILDING SUFFICIENTLY FAR WEST...AND\r\nTO THE NORTH OF HANNA...TO RESULT IN MORE WESTWARD TRACK.  SINCE\r\nTHIS IS A NORMALLY GOOD PERFORMING MODEL...IT CANNOT COMPLETELY BE\r\nIGNORED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS.  \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE HIGH SPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS MODELS...THERE IS\r\nCONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HANNA'S EVENTUAL TRACK AND\r\nINTENSITY. \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/1500Z 23.3N  70.0W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0000Z 23.4N  71.1W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  72.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0000Z 23.3N  72.9W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1200Z 23.0N  73.4W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1200Z 23.5N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1200Z 26.0N  76.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  79.0W    70 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-08-31 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA DURING THE\r\nLAST SEVERAL HOURS FOUND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 48 KT WHICH\r\nREDUCES TO APPROXIMATELY 40 KT AT THE SURFACE.  WHILE THERE WERE A\r\nFEW HIGHER VALUES FROM THE SFMR...THESE WERE LIKELY RAIN INFLATED.\r\nTHE OVERALL INTENSITY FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.\r\nHANNA IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED\r\nWITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHEAST.  GLOBAL MODELS DO\r\nFORECAST THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.\r\nHOWEVER...STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTAV'S\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW SHOULD KEEP NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA THROUGH\r\nDAY 3.  BY DAYS 4 AND 5...DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A SOMEWHAT\r\nIMPROVED ENVIRONMENT AS A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OR CYCLONIC SHEAR\r\nAXIS FORMS TO THE WEST OF HANNA.  THIS WOULD PUT HANNA IN A MORE\r\nFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING.  HOWEVER...ACCURATELY\r\nPREDICTING HANNA'S PROXIMITY TO LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES AT\r\nDAYS 4 AND 5 IS DIFFICULT...TO SAY THE LEAST.  GIVEN THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT\r\nIS BELOW THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nHANNA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR 280/09. GLOBAL\r\nMODELS INDICATE THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS\r\nA LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. SUCH AN EVOLUTION IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE\r\nTHE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN\r\nHANNA'S FORWARD SPEED. IN FACT...SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW HANNA\r\nMEANDERING OVER OR JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. BY DAY\r\n3...THE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD\r\nALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD IN ITS WAKE.\r\nTHERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT THE\r\nEXTENDED RANGE. THE GFS...GFDL...AND THE HWRF MODELS LIE ALONG THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND SHOW HANNA LIFTING QUICKLY\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.\r\nCONVERSELY...THE UKMET MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE NOSING WESTWARD TO THE\r\nNORTH OF HANNA...PRODUCING A TRACK ALONG THE LEFT...OR\r\nSOUTHWEST...SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. SINCE THERE IS NO CLEAR\r\nREASON TO FAVOR ONE SCENARIO OVER THE OTHER AT THIS TIME...I'VE\r\nELECTED TO LEAVE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED BEYOND\r\n72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      31/2100Z 23.5N  71.4W    40 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/0600Z 23.5N  72.3W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     01/1800Z 23.3N  73.1W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/0600Z 23.3N  73.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     02/1800Z 23.5N  74.1W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     03/1800Z 24.5N  75.0W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N  77.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  81.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-09-01 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2008\r\n \r\nSINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THIS AFTERNOON...\r\nDEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED JUST\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM BETWEEN 2200\r\nAND 0000 UTC HAVE BEEN VERY HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER. DVORAK\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AGAIN TO T3.0 OR 45 KT... AND\r\nNOAA BUOY 41046 RECENTLY REPORTED A PEAK ONE-MINUTE WIND SPEED OF\r\n39 KT VERY NEAR THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THESE DATA SUPPORT\r\nINCREASING THE INTENSITY TO 45 KT.\r\n \r\nBOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS DIAGNOSE ABOUT 20 KT OF\r\nNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER HANNA AT THIS TIME. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND\r\nTHE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHEAR VALUES\r\nDURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. GIVEN THIS SHEAR...IT IS TEMPTING TO NOT\r\nFORECAST ANY STRENGTHENING DURING THIS TIME...BUT MOST OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INTENSIFICATION. LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL\r\nENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHERE HANNA IS\r\nLOCATED. THE LGEM MODEL IS AT THE LOW END OF THE SPECTRUM AND\r\nFORECASTS VERY LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE\r\nNEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH\r\n36 HOURS...BUT IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE THEREAFTER AND USES A\r\nBLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS AT 3 DAYS AND BEYOND.\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD OR 280/7 KT. THE BUILDING DEEP-LAYER\r\nRIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO BLOCK HANNA'S\r\nFORWARD MOTION VERY SOON...AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW\r\nAND ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48\r\nHOURS...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN OVER THE U.S. WHILE ANOTHER\r\nRIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA. THE\r\nATLANTIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE STORM NORTHWESTWARD BY THAT\r\nTIME. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT\r\nTHE SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS QUITE LARGE AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE\r\nUKMET REMAINS THE SOUTHERN OUTLIER WITH A TRACK NEAR CUBA AND\r\nSOUTHERN FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFS...HWRF...AND GFDL ARE ON THE\r\nEASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A TRACK TOWARDS THE\r\nCAROLINAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS SHIFTED EVER SO\r\nSLIGHTLY WESTWARD.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0300Z 23.7N  72.2W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  72.9W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0000Z 23.4N  73.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1200Z 23.4N  73.7W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0000Z 23.7N  74.2W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0000Z 25.4N  75.8W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0000Z 29.0N  79.0W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0000Z 33.5N  82.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-09-01 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nDURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...A LARGE MASS OF INTENSE CONVECTION WITH\r\nCLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -87C HAS DEVELOPED IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF HANNA. NOAA BUOY 41046 JUST EAST OF THE\r\nALLEGED CENTER HAS REPORTED 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT...\r\nWHICH EASILY SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT...AND HANNA\r\nCOULD EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER BASED ON AN EARLIER PRESSURE OF\r\n997.1 MB FROM THE SAME BUOY. A RECON AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE\r\nHANNA LATER TODAY AND PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF INTENSITY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 260/02...DUE MAINLY TO SOME\r\nUNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. A 01/0224Z ASCAT\r\nOVERPASS SUGGESTED THE CENTER OF HANNA WAS FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND\r\nEMBEDDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. IF THAT IS THE CASE...HANNA WOULD\r\nEASILY BE A 55-KT OR STRONGER TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...EARLIER\r\nPASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE MOST RECENT NIGHTTIME VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY...AND THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR PATTERN ALL SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CENTER SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION RATHER THAN EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. IN CONTRAST TO THE\r\nUNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOCATION OF HANNA...ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS HAVE NEARLY IDENTICAL FORECAST SCENARIOS OF THE MID-\r\nTO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS. THE BERMUDA HIGH IS FORECAST TO\r\nEXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY\r\nBY DAYS 3-5...WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OFF THE\r\nU.S. EAST COAST AND SPLITS...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION DIGGING\r\nSOUTH OF HANNA AND THE NORTHERN PORTION LIFTING OUT AND ALLOWING\r\nRIDGING TO FILL IN BEHIND THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HANNA. THIS\r\nCOMBINED FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE HANNA TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY 72-96 HOURS/DAYS 3-4. THE PRIMARY\r\nDIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY HANDLE THE SIZE OF HANNA\r\nBETWEEN NOW AND 72 HOURS. THE ECMWF AND UKMET KEEP HANNA ABOUT 100\r\nNMI IN DIAMETER SMALLER AT 500 MB THAN THE OTHER MODELS DO...WHICH\r\nRESULTS IN MORE RIDGING TO EXIST ON THE EAST SIDE OF HANNA...AND\r\nWHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\nAND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND LEANS A LITTLE TOWARD\r\nTHE ECMWF-UKMET SCENARIOS BASED ON HANNA'S CURRENT SIZE.\r\n \r\nLITTLE...IF ANY...STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nDUE TO HOSTILE NORTHERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...\r\nALL OF THE MODELS HAVE ALMOST IDENTICAL 200 MB FLOW PATTERNS\r\nINDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW\r\nREGIMES SURROUNDING HANNA. THIS TYPE OF DUAL JET PATTERN WOULD\r\nFAVOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE A\r\nHURRICANE BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.\r\nCOAST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...BUT\r\nREMAINS BELOW ALL OF THE AVAILABLE NHC INTENSITY GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nALL INTERESTS IN FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECASTS FOR\r\nHANNA SINCE ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE WEST OF THE OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER OF HANNA MUCH CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA\r\nEAST COAST AND THE BAHAMAS THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/0900Z 23.6N  72.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.4N  73.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/0600Z 23.4N  73.5W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     02/1800Z 23.7N  74.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/0600Z 24.2N  74.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/0600Z 26.2N  76.5W    60 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/0600Z 30.0N  80.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/0600Z 35.0N  82.5W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-09-01 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nHANNA'S OVERALL SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN IMPROVING THIS\r\nMORNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE NOW COVERING THE LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION.  DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED\r\nAND SUGGEST MAX WINDS NEAR 55 KT.  I'M GOING TO CONSERVATIVELY SET\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT SINCE AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE\r\nAIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY.  HAVING SAID THAT...A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nSUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE LOCATED A LITTLE\r\nFARTHER INTO THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD BE\r\nSTRONGER THAN ESTIMATED.   THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS TRICKY. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH HAD\r\nPREVIOUSLY INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT HAS DISSIPATED...AND HANNA NOW\r\nFINDS ITSELF IN A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WATER\r\nVAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH\r\nGUSTAV'S UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW JUST NORTH OF HANNA...AND GLOBAL MODELS\r\nFORECAST MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR PERSISTING DURING THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A\r\nHURRICANE A LITTLE SOONER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  BY 72\r\nHOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN...AND HANNA\r\nCOULD FIND ITSELF IN A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING.  STILL...PREDICTING THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...\r\nAND TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY...AT DAYS 3-5 IS VERY DIFFICULT. \r\n\r\nWHILE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...HANNA APPEARS TO BE MOVING\r\nMORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250/4.  A VERY SLOW WEST-\r\nSOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.  \r\nIN 2 TO 3 DAYS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD\r\nWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CAUSING HANNA TO MOVE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 36 HOURS\r\nBASED ON THE LATEST MOTION. TRACK GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY AT THE EXTENDED RANGES AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST.   \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1500Z 23.0N  72.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.8N  73.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 22.7N  73.7W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 22.9N  74.1W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 23.7N  74.9W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N  77.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 30.5N  80.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  82.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hanna","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-09-01 17:30:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HANNA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n130 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nTHIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INTENSITY OF HANNA.  DATA\r\nFROM THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS\r\nNOW A HURRICANE WITH 65 KT WINDS.  THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nUPWARD AT ALL FORECAST TIMES.  THE TRACK HAS ALSO BEEN SLIGHTLY\r\nADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST FIX.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES\r\nTHE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/1730Z 22.4N  72.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0000Z 22.4N  73.3W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1200Z 22.5N  73.7W    70 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0000Z 22.8N  74.2W    70 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1200Z 23.7N  74.9W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1200Z 26.5N  77.5W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1200Z 30.5N  80.5W    80 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  82.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hanna","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-09-01 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY FOUND A CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE OF 983 MB AND A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 89 KT.  THESE\r\nNUMBERS INDICATE HANNA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE FACE OF\r\nWHAT APPEARS TO BE STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS\r\nDIFFICULT SINCE GLOBAL MODES SHOW THE SHEAR REMAINING STRONG OR\r\nPOSSIBLY INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  GIVEN HANNA'S\r\nTENACITY THUS FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PRESUMES THAT HANNA WILL\r\nBE ABLE TO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR.  AT DAY 5...HANNA IS FORECAST TO BE\r\nINLAND SO WEAKENING IS SHOWN.  \r\n\r\nTHE LAST FEW FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA HAS BEEN\r\nMEANDERING.  HOWEVER...A 12-HOUR AVERAGE MOTION IS SOUTH-\r\nSOUTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 4 KT AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE.  WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF HANNA NOW\r\nDISSIPATED...THE CYCLONE'S MOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BE SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC.   AFTER THAT...GLOBAL\r\nMODELS SHOW THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING BACK OVER THE\r\nWEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE HANNA TO TURN\r\nNORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS STILL SOME\r\nSPREAD AMONG THE VARIOUS TRACK MODELS WITH POTENTIAL AREAS OF\r\nIMPACT RANGING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE CAROLINAS.  UNTIL\r\nHANNA TAKES A MORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO BE\r\nMORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE POTENTIAL THREAT AREA.  ALL INTERESTS ALONG\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS\r\nOF THIS SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      01/2100Z 22.2N  72.6W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/0600Z 21.9N  72.9W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     02/1800Z 21.8N  73.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/0600Z 22.1N  73.9W    75 KT\r\n 48HR VT     03/1800Z 23.1N  74.5W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  78.0W    85 KT\r\n 96HR VT     05/1800Z 31.5N  81.0W    85 KT\r\n120HR VT     06/1800Z 39.0N  80.5W    25 KT...INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hanna","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-09-02 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2008\r\n \r\nWHILE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE\r\nPAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHAT'S LEFT SHOWS GOOD BANDING IN AGREEMENT\r\nWITH RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY.  THE PINE CAY SURFACE STATION IN THE\r\nCAICOS ISLAND SUGGESTS THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO ABOUT 978\r\nMB.  THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTFLOW FROM\r\nGUSTAV...IS CLEARLY NOT MAKING IT INTO THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE.  EVEN SO...ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN INTENSITY ARE\r\nANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS\r\nTO REVERSE WHEN MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS\r\nON THIS EVOLUTION...WHICH SHOULD CREATE A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN\r\nFOR INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LIES A LITTLE\r\nABOVE THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE\r\nGFDL/HWRF/SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE...WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODELS A LITTLE\r\nHIGHER AND THE STATISTICAL MODELS A LITTLE LOWER.  ONE SHOULD NOT\r\nINTERPOLATE A PRESUMED LANDFALL INTENSITY FROM THE 72 AND 96 HOUR\r\nFORECAST POINTS...AS SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR\r\nBETWEEN 72 HOURS AND LANDFALL.\r\n \r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE THIS EVENING AND PRECISE\r\nLOCATION OF THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT.  IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER\r\nHAS BEEN MEANDERING...FIRST APPROACHING THE STATION AT PINE CAY BUT\r\nIN RECENT HOURS MOVING AWAY AS THE WINDS AT THAT STATION HAVE\r\nINCREASED TO 58 MPH IN THE LAST HOUR.  WITH NO DEFINITIVE TREND YET\r\nESTABLISHED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE STATIONARY.\r\nHANNA IS CURRENTLY BLOCKED BY HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD\r\nFROM THE GREAT LAKES...BUT THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL\r\nMODELS TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD.  AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS\r\nOVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...A\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR HANNA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  WITH THE\r\nEXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS REMARKABLY WELL\r\nCLUSTERED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nGFS...GFDL...AND HWRF.  THE UKMET STILL IS THE LEFT-MOST\r\nOUTLIER...SHOWING MORE OF A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION INITIALLY AND A\r\nTRACK CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH IT IS WORTH NOTING\r\nTHAT THE 18Z UKMET SHOWS LESS OF THIS INITIAL SOUTHWESTWARD JUMP\r\nTHAN THE FULL RUN FROM 12Z.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0300Z 21.8N  72.5W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1200Z 21.8N  72.8W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0000Z 22.0N  73.3W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1200Z 22.8N  74.0W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0000Z 24.0N  75.0W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0000Z 28.0N  78.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0000Z 34.0N  80.5W    65 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0000Z 41.5N  77.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Hanna","Adv":22,"Date":"2008-09-02 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nCONVENTIONAL AND PASSIVE MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE HANNA\r\nHAS MOVED SOUTHWARD OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WHILE MAINTAINING A\r\nPRONOUNCED EYE FEATURE IN A 02/203Z AMSU OVERPASS. SATELLITE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT AND T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND\r\nSAB...RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS\r\nUNCHANGED AT 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/02 KT. LATEST\r\nSATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT HANNA COULD STILL BE\r\nMOVING SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PINCH OFF TO THE\r\nSOUTH AND WEST OF HANNA DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHICH  IS\r\nEXPECTED TO INDUCE A SLOW NORTH AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD\r\nWESTWARD THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A FASTER FORWARD\r\nNORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE\r\nRIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO GENERALLY EXTEND\r\nEAST-WEST BETWEEN 32-24N LATITUDE...AND THE EXACT TRACK OF HANNA\r\nWILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE CYCLONE MOVES\r\nDURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND ALSO HOW STRONG THE WESTERN PORTION\r\nOF THE RIDGE WILL BE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. HANNA IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD\r\nUNTIL IT REACHES THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AFTER WHICH IT IS\r\nEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RECURVE TO THE NORTHEAST. AN APPROXIMATE\r\n84-HOUR POSITION WOULD BE NEAR 31.3N 80.2W.\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS MAINTAINED A WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE STRUCTURE BASED ON\r\nTHE 0202Z AMSU OVERPASS...AND ANOTHER CDO FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOPS\r\nAS COLD OF -80C TO -87C HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER SIMILAR TO\r\nTHE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT. THE CURRENT 30-KT NORTHERLY SHEAR PATTERN\r\nIS FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TODAY AND CONTINUE\r\nTO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND GRADUALLY SWITCH TO A\r\nSOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT WITH LESS THAN 15 KT OF SHEAR AT 72-96\r\nHOURS. GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN AND SSTS OF AT LEAST 28C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK UNTIL\r\nLANDFALL...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. THE\r\nOFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY\r\n...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT\r\nHANNA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...OR AT LEAST REMAIN\r\nSTEADY...UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS BETWEEN 84 AND 96 HOURS...RATHER\r\nTHAN APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING LIKE SOME AUTOMATIC INTENSITY PLOTTING\r\nSOFTWARE MAY SHOW. IN FACT...BY 84 HOURS HANNA COULD BE A MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/0900Z 21.3N  72.7W    70 KT\r\n 12HR VT     02/1800Z 21.4N  73.1W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/0600Z 22.0N  73.5W    75 KT\r\n 36HR VT     03/1800Z 23.0N  74.3W    80 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/0600Z 24.4N  75.5W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/0600Z 28.7N  79.0W    90 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/0600Z 34.7N  80.7W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/0600Z 42.5N  74.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":23,"Date":"2008-09-02 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS FINALLY SUCCUMBED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WITH\r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL\r\nCIRCULATION AND A SHRINKING CDO FEATURE.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS\r\nSET AT 60 KT...BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THIS\r\nMIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL\r\nINVESTIGATE HANNA THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHARP EDGE OR DEFORMATION\r\nAXIS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CIRRUS CANOPY SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nSHEAR WILL PERSIST IN THE SHORT-TERM...AND SOME ADDITIONAL\r\nWEAKENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.  IN ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SHEAR WEAKENING AND THIS COULD ALLOW\r\nHANNA TO RESTRENGTHEN.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENT LACK OF\r\nORGANIZATION...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW HOW MUCH STRENGTHENING IS\r\nPOSSIBLE.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY BUT SHOWS HANNA BECOMING A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE\r\nFORECAST.  IN FACT...IF ONE CONSULTS THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITY\r\nPRODUCT INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE...IT CAN BE SEEN THAT THERE IS\r\nNEARLY AN EQUAL PROBABILITY OF HANNA BEING A TROPICAL STORM OR\r\nHURRICANE AT DAY 3. \r\n\r\nHANNA CONTINUES TO MEANDER BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF AN INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS 250/05. SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT\r\nHANNA SHOULD START MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS A\r\nLARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD\r\nAND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. HANNA SHOULD ACCELERATE\r\nNORTHWESTWARD AT DAYS 2 TO 3 AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS. DYNAMICAL\r\nTRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST AND THE NEW OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO\r\nAPPROACH THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA... GEORGIA...OR SOUTH CAROLINA\r\nIN 2 TO 3 DAYS. IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT THE EXPECTED ANGLE OF\r\nAPPROACH AND TRACK UNCERTAINTY MAKE IT IMPOSSIBLE TO NARROW DOWN\r\nTHE POTENTIAL IMPACT AREA. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS\r\nAND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD\r\nCLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/1500Z 21.0N  73.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0000Z 21.4N  73.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1200Z 22.3N  74.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.6N  75.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1200Z 25.1N  76.8W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1200Z 29.5N  80.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1200Z 36.5N  80.0W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/1200Z 45.5N  70.0W    25 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":24,"Date":"2008-09-02 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING HANNA\r\nCONFIRMS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED. THE PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND\r\nAT 850 MB WAS 66 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 55 KT AT THE\r\nSURFACE. HANNA WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER STRONG SHEAR FOR ANOTHER\r\n12-24 HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. BY\r\nTOMORROW...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF\r\nJUST WEST OF HANNA AND THEN DROP SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW\r\nDAYS.  IF THIS EVOLUTION MATERIALIZES...AND ASSUMING HANNA IS ABLE\r\nTO FIGHT OFF THE SHEAR...THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD GRADUALLY BECOME\r\nMORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR HANNA TO REGAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A DAY OR SO...IN\r\nLINE WITH NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE INTENSITY MODELS. \r\nHOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE\r\nNEXT DAY OR SO IS COMPLEX...WHICH RESULTS IN LOWER THAN NORMAL\r\nCONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nTHE LAST FEW AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA CONTINUES TO DRIFT\r\nSOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 150/02. TRACK\r\nMODELS INSIST THAT HANNA WILL START ITS MUCH-ANTICIPATED TURN\r\nTOWARD THE NORTHWEST SOON...AS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC LIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS\r\nBACK IN.  SUCH A TRACK WOULD TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH\r\nTHE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. \r\nHANNA IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT MAKES ITS APPROACH TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.  HOWEVER...UNTIL HANNA BEGINS A\r\nMORE DEFINITIVE MOTION...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO NARROW THE\r\nPOTENTIAL IMPACT AREA.  IN ADDITION...THE ANTICIPATED ANGLE OF\r\nAPPROACH TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST MEANS THAN ONLY A\r\nSMALL DEVIATION LEFT OR RIGHT OF THE TRACK WILL HAVE LARGE\r\nIMPLICATIONS IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.  IN FACT...THE\r\nWIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT INCLUDED WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE\r\nSHOWS THAT THE CHANCES OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE ABOUT EQUAL AT\r\nEACH SPECIFIC LOCATION ALONG THE COAST FROM FLORIDA THROUGH THE\r\nCAROLINAS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      02/2100Z 20.4N  72.7W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/0600Z 20.9N  73.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     03/1800Z 22.2N  74.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/0600Z 23.5N  75.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     04/1800Z 25.4N  77.2W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     05/1800Z 30.5N  80.5W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     06/1800Z 38.0N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     07/1800Z 47.0N  66.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":25,"Date":"2008-09-03 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 02 2008\r\n \r\nTHE LAST COUPLE OF FIXES FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT \r\nINDICATED THAT HANNA WAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  IT SEEMS THAT\r\nHANNA IS MAKING A SMALL COUNTER-CLOCKWISE LOOP BETWEEN HISPANIOLA\r\nAND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  I HAVE TO GIVE SOME CREDIT TO THE\r\nGFDL AND HWRF MODELS WHICH PREDICTED THIS LOOP A FEW DAYS AGO...\r\nHOWEVER THEY INDICATED THAT HANNA WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH\r\nWHEN IT OCCURRED.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED HANNA THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DEGRADE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HANNA\r\nHAS WEAKENED EVEN MORE.  HOWEVER...WE WILL KEEP THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY AT 55 KT SINCE ANOTHER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO\r\nINVESTIGATE THE STORM AROUND 0600 UTC.\r\n   \r\nSTRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO SHEAR HANNA.\r\nBUT...THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO CUT-OFF TO\r\nTHE NORTHWEST OF HANNA VERY SOON...AND THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE IN\r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAT THIS IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR.  AS THE\r\nUPPER-LOW CUTS-OFF IT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD WHICH SHOULD\r\nTURN THE UPPER-FLOW OVER THE STORM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...\r\nWHICH WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.  AT\r\n96 HOURS...HANNA WAS MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL STORM...BECAUSE IT IS\r\nPREDICTED TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED\r\nSTATES AND THERE COULD STILL BE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER\r\nWATER AT THAT TIME.\r\n\r\nTHE TRACK MODELS SUGGEST THAT HANNA WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD\r\nVERY SOON AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST UNITED\r\nSTATES COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER\r\nTHE ATLANTIC TO BUILD WESTWARD.  THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO STEER\r\nHANNA ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN\r\nFORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE EASTWARD...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A\r\nCHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED\r\nEASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD\r\nINITIAL LOCATION...BUT THEREAFTER IT REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.  AS A REMINDER...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE\r\nEXACT TRACK AS SMALL DEVIATIONS LEFT OR RIGHT WOULD HAVE LARGE\r\nIMPLICATIONS ON BOTH THE TIME AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL.  A G-IV\r\nMISSION WAS FLOWN THIS EVENING AND THE DATA GATHERED BY THIS\r\nAIRCRAFT SHOULD GET ASSIMILATED INTO THE 0000 UTC MODEL GUIDANCE. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0300Z 20.5N  72.4W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1200Z 21.3N  72.3W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0000Z 22.8N  73.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1200Z 24.4N  75.5W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0000Z 26.4N  77.4W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0000Z 32.5N  80.5W    75 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/0000Z 41.0N  75.5W    35 KT...INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/0000Z 50.0N  60.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN/AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":26,"Date":"2008-09-03 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nFIXES FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT\r\nINDICATE HANNA HAS ALMOST COMPLETED A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND IS\r\nNOW POSSIBLY TURNING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS\r\nDECREASED TO COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...WHICH IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE 993 MB BASED ON A DROPSONDE REPORT THAT ALSO\r\nMEASURED 25-KT SURFACE WINDS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST REASONINGS.\r\nHANNA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE\r\nNEXT 72 HOURS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\n...POSSIBLY IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA AREA. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT\r\nTHE 00Z MODEL RUNS CONTAINED UPPER-AIR DATA FROM DROPSONDES\r\nRELEASED AROUND HANNAFROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET AIRCRAFT...\r\nWHICH USUALLY PRODUCES BETTER TRACK FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC\r\nMODEL CONSENSUS. \r\n \r\nTHE INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED AND FOLLOWS THE\r\nSHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WITH HANNA EXPECTED TO REGAIN HURRICANE\r\nSTATUS BY 36 HOURS AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/0900Z 20.2N  72.2W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     03/1800Z 21.5N  72.8W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/0600Z 23.2N  74.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     04/1800Z 24.8N  76.0W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.2N  78.1W    75 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/0600Z 33.7N  80.0W    70 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/0600Z 42.5N  71.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n120HR VT     08/0600Z 51.0N  55.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":27,"Date":"2008-09-03 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN SOME STRUCTURAL CHANGES WITH HANNA TODAY AS IT\r\nINTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN\r\nBAHAMAS.  THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nAND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED. \r\nVISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL SWIRLS COMING OUT OF\r\nTHE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF A MEAN CENTER...AND THE\r\nSYSTEM'S CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CORE.  THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE MISSION THAT ENDED AROUND 12Z REPORTED SOME SFMR\r\nWINDS OF UP TO 45 KT ABOUT 70 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS 50 KT.\r\n\r\nBECAUSE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED...THE INTIAL MOTION IS HARD\r\nTO GAUGE.  MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 360/5...AND THIS COULD BE THE START\r\nOF THE EXPECTED NORTHWESTWARD TURN.  THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD\r\nBECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER LOW\r\nMOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THE\r\nLARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW OFF THE UPPER U.S. EAST COAST.  MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nRESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A NORTHWESTWARD ACCELERATION WITH A\r\nRECURVATURE AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE\r\nGUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO FAST WITH THIS SCENARIO OVER THE PAST COUPLE\r\nOF DAYS...AND GIVEN THE POOR CORE STRUCTURE OF HANNA I AM INCLINED\r\nTO THINK THAT SUBSEQUENT INTERACTION WITH THE UPPER STEERING MAY BE\r\nA LITTLE OVERDONE...AT LEAST INITIALLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN TERMS OF SPEED...WITH\r\nTHE GFS/HWRF/GFDL SHOWING A MORE VERTICAL SYSTEM MOVING MORE\r\nRAPIDLY.  THE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING EASTWARD OVER THE\r\nPAST FEW CYCLES...AND I HAVE SHIFTED THE TRACK SLIGHTLY IN THAT\r\nDIRECTION.\r\n\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL\r\nINHIBIT DEVELOPMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE\r\nNEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TO BE REPLACED WITH MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  THIS PATTERN WOULD PERMIT SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION...BUT\r\nHANNA WILL NEED TO RECREATE AN INNER CORE IN ORDER TO INTENSIFY\r\nSUBSTANTIALLY.  THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE STILL BRINGS HANNA TO\r\nMINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST ABOVE\r\nTHIS GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/1500Z 20.6N  71.8W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.5N  72.0W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.4N  73.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0000Z 25.2N  75.2W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1200Z 27.3N  77.1W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1200Z 33.0N  79.0W    70 KT\r\n 96HR VT     07/1200Z 42.0N  71.0W    35 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1200Z 47.0N  60.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":28,"Date":"2008-09-03 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nAN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z REVEALED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF\r\nHANNA WAS BECOMING ELONGATED IN RESPONSE TO THE ASYMMETRIC\r\nDISTRIBUTION OF CONVECTION.  IN SPITE OF THIS...DATA FROM THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS BECOMING A LITTLE\r\nBETTER ORGANIZED.  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE\r\nSOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 989 MB.  THE\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ABOUT\r\n50 KT.\r\n\r\nA MORE DEFINITIVE NORTHWARD MOTION HAS COMMENCED...WITH THE INITIAL\r\nESTIMATE BEING 360/10.   THE UPPER LOW OFF OF NEW ENGLAND IS\r\nBEGINNING TO MOVE OUT...AND AS IT DOES SO MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL\r\nBUILD IN BEHIND IT.  HANNA SEEMS TO BE FOLLOWING THE CONVECTION\r\nFAIRLY WELL...AND I'VE HAD TO SPEED UP MY PREVIOUS FORECAST A\r\nLITTLE BIT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A\r\nBLEND OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS.  THE HWRF AND GFDL CONTINUE TO BE\r\nFASTER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND IF HANNA DEVELOPS FASTER\r\nTHAN SHOWN BELOW ADDITIONAL TIMING ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE.\r\nIT'S WORTH NOTING THAT CONNECTING THE 48 AND 72 HOUR FORECAST POINTS\r\nWITH A STRAIGHT LINE GIVES A MISLEADING UNDERESTIMATE OF THE\r\nTHREAT TO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS.  ONLY A GRADUAL\r\nRIGHT TURN IS EXPECTED AFTER 48 HOURS.\r\n\r\nAS THE UPPER LOW IN THE BAHAMAS AND HANNA SEPARATE...THE SOUTHERLY\r\nSHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY AND LESSEN.  THIS IS\r\nEXPECTED TO PROVIDE A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE AIDS SHOWS VERY\r\nMUCH.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM BRING THE SYSTEM ONLY TO 60 KT...AND THE\r\nHWRF NOT QUITE THAT HIGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD\r\nAGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL WHICH BRINGS HANNA TO 70 KT PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL.\r\n  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      03/2100Z 21.9N  71.9W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/0600Z 23.2N  72.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     04/1800Z 25.2N  74.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.4N  76.6W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  78.5W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     06/1800Z 36.8N  76.9W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     07/1800Z 44.5N  67.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     08/1800Z 48.0N  55.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":29,"Date":"2008-09-04 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED SEP 03 2008\r\n \r\nHANNA HAS BEEN A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SINCE ITS FORMATION IT\r\nHAS FOUGHT TWO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...STRONG NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE\r\nEFFECTS OF LAND. FURTHERMORE...AT TIMES HANNA HAS RESEMBLED A\r\nSUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  SURFACE AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS TONIGHT\r\nCONTINUE TO SHOW THAT HANNA HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION AND SATELLITE\r\nIMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR IS DECREASING AND HANNA IS DEVELOPING\r\nUPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THESE CHANGES IN THE UPPER FLOW OVER HANNA\r\nHAVE BEEN ACCURATELY FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL WEATHER\r\nPREDICTION MODELS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 55 KNOTS...AND IS\r\nBASED ON A 68 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND MEASURED AS THE PLANE DEPARTED\r\nTHE CYCLONE. WITH THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SOME\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HANNA IS\r\nFORECAST TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS IN A DAY OR TWO BUT IT COULD\r\nOCCUR EARLIER. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INTENSIFIES HANNA BEYOND 70\r\nKNOTS.   \r\n\r\nTHE CENTER HAS BEEN ROTATING AROUND A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE AND FIXES\r\nFROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND DATA FROM A NOAA BUOY SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/11. SOME OF THIS MOTION COULD HAVE\r\nRESULTED FROM REFORMATION OF THE CENTER. SINCE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE\r\nIS EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OF HANNA...A NORTHWEST MOTION SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE\r\nNORTH AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH.  THE TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE NOT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS NOT VERY HIGH. HOWEVER...THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE HAS HANNA MOVING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF THE\r\nCAROLINAS.  BECAUSE HANNA IS A LARGE CYCLONE...A HURRICANE WATCH\r\nWILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED\r\nSTATES COAST EARLY THURSDAY. \r\n\r\nA NOAA JET HAS SAMPLED THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND THE DATA IS BEING\r\nUSED TO INITIALIZE THE 00Z GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. \r\n \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0300Z 23.2N  72.1W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1200Z 24.7N  73.1W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0000Z 26.9N  75.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1200Z 29.3N  77.3W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0000Z 32.0N  79.0W    70 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0000Z 39.5N  74.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0000Z 46.5N  63.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0000Z 49.0N  47.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":30,"Date":"2008-09-04 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  30\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nLOOKS CAN CERTAINLY BE DECEIVING.  HANNA HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCING VERY\r\nMUCH DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AN EARLIER STRONG BURST DIED AFTER ABOUT\r\n04Z...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST CONTINUES TO IMPOSE STRONG\r\nSOUTHERLY SHEAR.  NEVERTHELESS...HANNA HAS A LARGE AND ROBUST\r\nCIRCULATION...AND A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS RECENTLY\r\nREPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 990 MB.  FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS\r\nAT 850 MB HAVE BEEN AS STRONG AS 65 KT...AND NUMEROUS SFMR VALUES\r\nOF 55-60 KT HAVE BEEN RETRIEVED.  I HAVE NO GOOD REASON TO DISCOUNT\r\nTHE SFMR WINDS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT. \r\nGIVEN THAT THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS\r\nTO PERSIST OVER HANNA EVEN AS IT GAINS LATITUDE DURING THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS...STRENGTHENING WOULD AT FIRST GLANCE SEEM UNLIKELY. \r\nCONSISTENT WITH THAT THINKING...THE GFDL AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH OR EVEN SOME WEAKENING...EXCEPT MUCH LATER WHEN\r\nHANNA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE\r\nSHIPS AND LGEM...DESPITE DIAGNOSING LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSHEAR...FORECAST A LITTLE STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STATUS.  A\r\nCONSENSUS OF THESE VARIOUS MODELS WOULD YIELD A FLAT 60 KT\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST UNTIL HANNA PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nCAROLINAS...BUT FOR CONTINUITY AND SINCE HANNA IS ALREADY PRODUCING\r\nWINDS JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH....65 KT IS STILL SHOWN\r\nEXPLICITLY IN THE FORECAST.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS\r\nHANNA ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.\r\n\r\nDESPITE HAVING AIRCRAFT FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HARD TO\r\nGAGE...PROBABLY DUE TO THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE\r\nCIRCULATION...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/10.  HANNA\r\nSHOULD ROUND THE BUILDING WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ROUGHLY HUG\r\nTHE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...BUT PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE\r\nCOAST OF THE CAROLINAS ALONG THE WAY.  PERHAPS DUE IN PART TO THE\r\nBENEFIT OF DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET MISSION LAST NIGHT...THE\r\nLATEST MODEL TRACKS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE TIGHTER AGREEMENT...AND\r\nIN GENERAL THEY HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT.  THE NEW TRACK\r\nFORECAST IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO BE\r\nCLOSER TO THE CONSENSUS.  AS ALWAYS...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE\r\nEXACT FORECAST OF THE CENTER...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE WEATHER\r\nASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/0900Z 24.0N  72.8W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     04/1800Z 25.3N  74.1W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N  76.6W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     05/1800Z 30.3N  78.4W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/0600Z 33.5N  78.4W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     07/0600Z 41.0N  72.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 96HR VT     08/0600Z 48.5N  59.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/0600Z 51.5N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":31,"Date":"2008-09-04 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  31...CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n\r\n...CORRECT STATUS AT 48 AND 72 HR...\r\n \r\nVERY DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE\r\nNORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS IS CHOKING OFF CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF\r\nHANNA...AND THE CYCLONE HAS A VERY SUBTROPICAL APPEARANCE.\r\nCONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS\r\nAND THE HIGHEST FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AS WELL.\r\nBASED ON SOME 52 KT SFMR WINDS AROUND 11Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY\r\nIS LOWERED TO 55 KT.\r\n \r\nCONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING RIGHT NOW...WITH\r\nMODERATE SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS.  THE GFS SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT DRY AIR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE UP TO LANDFALL.\r\nHOWEVER...AS HANNA AND THE UPPER LOW BEGIN TO SEPARATE SOME OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS...SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL\r\nLESSEN SOMEWHAT.  THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION...AND\r\nSO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW HANNA ATTAINING\r\nHURRICANE STRENGTH.  THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE\r\nHWRF...ALTHOUGH THE GFDL AND SHIPS GUIDANCE IS LOWER.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/10.  THE FORECAST SCENARIO IS UNCHANGED\r\nFROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A DEEP LAYER LOW MOVES AWAY FROM NEW\r\nENGLAND.  HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nHIGH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE\r\nTO THE FORECAST TRACK IS REQUIRED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS BECAUSE THE BETTER\r\nPERFORMING MODELS THIS YEAR...NAMELY THE GFS AND GFDL...ARE ON THE\r\nRIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  BECAUSE OF THE LARGE...\r\nSPRAWLING NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION...THE EXACT TRAJECTORY OF THE\r\nCENTER IS RELATIVELY UNIMPORTANT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/1500Z 24.5N  73.5W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0000Z 26.2N  75.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.7N  77.2W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0000Z 31.7N  78.2W    65 KT\r\n 48HR VT     06/1200Z 35.4N  77.4W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1200Z 43.0N  69.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/1200Z 50.0N  54.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1200Z 51.5N  37.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":32,"Date":"2008-09-04 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING HANNA IS FINDING THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER AT 850 MB DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN\r\nCENTER OF ROTATION APPARENT IN THE LOW CLOUD LINES.  THERE ARE ALSO\r\nMULTIPLE SWIRLS...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS\r\nJUMPED A LITTLE BIT TO THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE\r\nASYMMETRY.  ALTHOUGH A COUPLE MORE SHIFTS ARE POSSIBLE...THE\r\nORIENTATION OF THE SHEAR SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WITH\r\nTIME...THAT IS...MORE ALONG THE TRACK...AND THEN HAVE LESS OF AN\r\nIMPACT ON THE TRACK.  THE BASIC FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS UNCHANGED. \r\nTHE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH ONLY\r\nA SLIGHT LEFTWARD SHIFT...AND IS NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.   \r\n\r\nRECONNAISSANCE DATA THUS FAR DO NOT SUPPORT ANY INCREASE IN THE\r\nINTENSITY ESTIMATE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY\r\nAIR IMPINGING ON HANNA FROM THE SOUTHEAST...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE.  WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH A\r\nLITTLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL...NONE OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE MODELS\r\nNOW MAKE HANNA A HURRICANE AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST NOW\r\nTOPS OUT AT 60 KT.  HURRICANE WATCHES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE\r\nPOSSIBILITY THAT HANNA BECOMES A LITTLE STRONGER THAN\r\nFORECAST...AND PEOPLE ARE REMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      04/2100Z 25.5N  75.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/0600Z 27.2N  76.4W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     05/1800Z 30.3N  78.0W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/0600Z 33.9N  78.3W    60 KT...ON THE COAST\r\n 48HR VT     06/1800Z 37.5N  76.5W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     07/1800Z 46.0N  65.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     08/1800Z 51.0N  50.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     09/1800Z 52.5N  32.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":33,"Date":"2008-09-05 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  33\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU SEP 04 2008\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 987 MB AND\r\n60 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL ON ITS WAY HOME A FEW HOURS AGO. SINCE\r\nTHEN SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE SHOWN AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM\r\nACTIVITY AND THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CENTER COULD BE\r\nUNDER THE CONVECTION OR VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE CLOUD\r\nPATTERN ON IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT HANNA LOOKS A LITTLE MORE\r\nTROPICAL THAN EARLIER TODAY BUT THE CYCLONE STILL HAS A LARGE WIND\r\nFIELD AND LACKS AN INNER CORE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55\r\nKNOTS AND ANOTHER PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA IN A FEW HOURS TO CHECK\r\nIF THE WINDS HAVE INCREASED.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATE\r\nSIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS HANNA TO\r\n60 KNOTS BEFORE IT REACHES THE UNITED STATES COAST. PEOPLE ARE\r\nREMINDED THAT THERE IS VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG\r\nTROPICAL STORM AND A MINIMAL HURRICANE...ONLY A FIVE KNOT\r\nDIFFERENCE.\r\n \r\nSURFACE DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FIXES\r\nINDICATE THAT HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES\r\nAT 12 KNOTS...STEERED BY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ERODED BY\r\nAN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE HANNA TO MOVE\r\nON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH AN\r\nINCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nFULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND RACE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.  THIS IS BASICALLY THE\r\nSOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.\r\n \r\nIF HANNA BECOMES MORE TROPICAL AS SUGGESTED BY THE INCREASE IN\r\nCONVECTION...THE WIND FIELD MOST LIKELY WILL CONTRACT A LITTLE BIT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0300Z 26.5N  76.3W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1200Z 28.5N  77.7W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0000Z 31.5N  78.5W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1200Z 35.0N  78.0W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  75.0W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0000Z 46.0N  62.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/0000Z 50.5N  44.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0000Z 51.2N  27.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":34,"Date":"2008-09-05 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY SAMPLING HANNA RECENTLY FOUND\r\nPEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 73 KT.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND\r\nTO SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 60 KT USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION. \r\nHOWEVER...THE WINDS WERE FOUND IN AN AREA ABSENT OF DEEP CONVECTION\r\nAND THE SFMR INSTRUMENT ONLY SHOWED ABOUT 51 KT IN THE SAME AREA.\r\nIN ADDITION...A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE AREA HAD A SURFACE WIND\r\nOF 57 KT.  THESE DATA SUGGEST THE INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 55 KT. \r\nHANNA HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO GENERATE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION\r\nNEAR THE CENTER DUE TO SHEAR AND DRY AIR...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN\r\nA RECENT BURST WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  WHILE THERE IS\r\nSOME POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...ALL BUT ONE\r\nOF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP HANNA JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. \r\nSTILL...THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A STRONG TROPICAL STORM\r\nAND A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE...AND HANNA COULD REACH HURRICANE\r\nSTRENGTH BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES\r\nIN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nHANNA IS BEING STEERED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC RESULTING IN A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320/17. \r\nHANNA IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH TODAY THEN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nTONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE\r\nRIDGE.  THEREAFTER...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO RACE NORTHEASTWARD AND\r\nBECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  TRACK MODELS HAVE BEEN\r\nTRENDING TOWARD THE WEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO\r\nTHE LEFT THROUGH 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN HANNA'S LARGE\r\nSIZE...ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AS THE INCLEMENT\r\nWEATHER EXTENDS WELL BEYOND THE CENTER. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/0900Z 28.0N  78.0W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  78.8W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/0600Z 33.2N  79.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     06/1800Z 36.7N  77.2W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/0600Z 40.6N  72.9W    40 KT...INLAND\r\n 72HR VT     08/0600Z 48.0N  58.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/0600Z 50.5N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/0600Z 51.5N  23.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":35,"Date":"2008-09-05 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM THE MELBOURNE WSR-88D INDICATE\r\nTHAT HANNA HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AS\r\nTHE LATEST CONVECTIVE BURST HAS PRODUCED AN INNER WIND CORE. \r\nHOWEVER...THE RADAR-OBSERVED VELOCITIES DO NOT YET SUGGEST\r\nINTENSIFICATION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER OF HANNA JOGGED WESTWARD BETWEEN 06-12Z.  HOWEVER...THE\r\nMELBOURNE RADAR SUGGEST THE CENTER HAS RESUMED A MORE NORTHWARD\r\nMOTIONS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 325/17.  HANNA IS\r\nMOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERLIES IN 24-48 HR.  THIS\r\nSHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION. \r\nALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THERE ARE NO\r\nSIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 36 HR\r\nTO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nWHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL\r\nISSUES...THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nSTRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS\r\nFOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KT NEAR LANDFALL.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO\r\nLANDFALL...ALTHOUGH THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD\r\nWEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE\r\nGFS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF DEEPENING AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN\r\nTHE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/1500Z 28.9N  79.2W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0000Z 31.2N  79.7W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1200Z 34.5N  79.1W    55 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0000Z 38.2N  76.1W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 48HR VT     07/1200Z 42.5N  70.1W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1200Z 49.0N  52.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1200Z 50.5N  35.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1200Z 51.0N  18.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":36,"Date":"2008-09-05 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  36\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nREPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nAIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HANNA IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE\r\nSTEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE REPORTED TWO AREAS OF WIND OF ABOUT 65\r\nKT.  HOWEVER...DROPSONDE DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATES WERE\r\nA LITTLE TOO HIGH.  THE MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 75\r\nKT ABOUT 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE LAST REPORTED CENTRAL\r\nPRESSURE WAS 984 MB...UP A LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING.  BASED ON ALL\r\nTHIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED\r\nTHAT THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE METEOROLOGICALLY BETWEEN A 60-KT\r\nTROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE.\r\n\r\nTHE MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT WOBBLY 360/17...WITH A RE-ANALYSIS OF\r\nAIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTING THIS MOTION BEGAN JUST AFTER THE 11Z\r\nAIRCRAFT FIX.  HANNA IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SHOULD ENTER THE\r\nWESTERLIES IN 24-36 HR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RECURVATURE TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST AND ACCELERATION.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS\r\nSCENARIO...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT OUTLIERS AMONGST THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n\r\nVERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ARE STILL ISSUES FOR\r\nHANNA...AND SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE\r\nLANDFALL.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT A CONVECTIVE BURST\r\nCOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CYCLONE\r\nSHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36\r\nHR.  THE GFS AND UKMET CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF\r\nDEEPENING AS AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM LATE IN THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 96 AND 120 HR FORECASTS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 30.8N  78.7W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 33.2N  78.5W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 36.7N  76.8W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 40.7N  72.4W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 44.5N  65.6W    40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 50.0N  47.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 51.0N  30.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 52.5N  14.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":37,"Date":"2008-09-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 05 2008\r\n \r\nDATA FROM A RECONNAISSACE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE PRESSURE\r\nHAS DROPPED TO 978 MB BUT WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE AREA OF STRONG WINDS HAS BEEN\r\nSHRINKING SINCE HANNA APPEARS TO BE MORE TROPICAL AND THERE IS A\r\nPERSISTENT AND LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HANNA\r\nCOULD REACH THE COAST IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS AS A HURRICANE SINCE IT\r\nONLY NEEDS FIVE KNOTS TO BE ONE. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT MUCH\r\nDIFFERENCE BETWEEN A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM AND A 65-KT HURRICANE.    \r\n\r\nRADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE FIXES INDICATE THAT HANNA IS MOVING\r\nNORTHWARD AT 17 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED IN A STRONG\r\nSOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND SOON HANNA SHOULD BEGIN TO\r\nTURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER\r\nLANDFALL...AS HANNA BECOMES FULLY INVOLVED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nFLOW...IT SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS.\r\nDURING THIS PERIOD...HANNA WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO OR OVER THE\r\nNORTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 32.4N  79.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 34.9N  78.6W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  75.0W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 42.5N  69.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 46.5N  60.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 50.0N  42.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 51.5N  27.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 55.0N  13.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":38,"Date":"2008-09-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADAR DATA...AND SURFACE\r\nOBSERVATIONS...SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA CAME ASHORE AT ABOUT\r\n0720 UTC NEAR THE BORDER BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. \r\nPRIOR TO LANDFALL...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A\r\nCENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB...BUT FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR DATA DID NOT\r\nREVEAL ANY INCREASE IN THE WINDS...NOR DID WSR-88D RADAR\r\nVELOCITIES.  THE INTENSITY APPEARED TO BE 55 TO 60 KT WHILE THE\r\nCENTER WAS STILL OVER WATER...BUT NOW THAT IT IS INLAND THE MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS HAVE PROBABLY COME DOWN TO ABOUT 50 KT.  SLIGHT WEAKENING IS\r\nFORECAST AS HANNA WILL BE MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST\r\nOF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  LITTLE CHANGE IN\r\nSTRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER AS HANNA BECOMES AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.\r\n\r\nHANNA IS ROUNDING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC...TURNING RIGHT AND ACCELERATING.  THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nESTIMATE IS ABOUT 020/19...BUT HANNA SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD\r\nWITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. \r\nTHE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS NOW CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nTIGHTLY-CLUSTERED MODEL SOLUTIONS. \r\n \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 34.4N  78.3W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 37.3N  76.7W    50 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 41.2N  72.2W    45 KT...NEAR COAST\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 45.0N  64.8W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 48.2N  56.2W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 50.5N  38.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 54.5N  20.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 58.5N  11.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":39,"Date":"2008-09-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  39\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HANNA IS MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINA...WITH\r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A CONVECTIVE OVERCAST JUST NORTH OF THE\r\nCENTER...AND RADAR DATA SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAINBANDS OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  WHILE THERE ARE NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS OF\r\nSUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 45 KT IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE IN AREAS NOT\r\nCURRENTLY SAMPLED.  WHILE LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 025/22.  HANNA IS ROUNDING THE END OF THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR.  AFTER THAT...THE SYSTEM\r\nSHOULD MOVE GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND\r\nTHIS SCENARIO...AND NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 36.6N  77.4W    45 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 39.7N  74.7W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 43.5N  68.4W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 46.8N  60.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 49.0N  51.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 51.0N  34.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 55.0N  19.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 59.0N  10.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":40,"Date":"2008-09-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  40\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HANNA IS MOVING OVER THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...\r\nWITH RADAR DATA CONTINUING TO SHOW WIDESPREAD RAINBANDS OVER THE\r\nNORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS\r\nDECREASING...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 994 MB.\r\nRECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN 35-40 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. \r\nSO...THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT ON THE PREMISE\r\nTHAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE NOT SAMPLED.  AS BEFORE...WHILE LITTLE\r\nCHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...HANNA IS\r\nEXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 12-24 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/23.  HANNA IS ENTERING THE WESTERLIES\r\nAND SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR..FOLLOWED\r\nBY A RAPID EASTWARD MOTION.  A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME\r\nDECELERATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 96 HR.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY\r\nWELL CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 38.5N  75.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 41.7N  71.8W    45 KT...INLAND\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 45.3N  64.6W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 48.3N  56.0W    45 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 49.6N  47.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 51.5N  31.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 56.0N  17.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 60.0N  10.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":41,"Date":"2008-09-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  41\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF HANNA IS MOVING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF LONG\r\nISLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/26...AND HANNA IS RIGHT\r\nON TRACK. GRADUAL ACCELERATION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS\r\nAS HANNA GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE FAST UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIE...AND THE\r\nNEW NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE\r\nAND HANNA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE U.S. COASTLINE AROUND CAPE COD\r\nMASSACHUSETTS BY 07/0900Z.\r\n\r\nHANNA'S FAST FORWARD MOTION HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO SOME OF\r\nINCREASE IN OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED FROM SHIPS AND BUOYS\r\nSOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. TWO UNCONFIRMED SHIP REPORTS OF 64 KT AND 60\r\nKT HAVE BEEN RECEIVED DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...ONE OF\r\nWHICH OCCURRED IN A RAIN BAND. HOWEVER...THESE COULD HAVE BEEN\r\nISOLATED GUSTS AND THE RAIN BANDS HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED.\r\nTHEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY\r\nBASED ON EARLIER DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES OF 70 KT AT 5000 TO 7000\r\nFT THAT COVERED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT\r\nOF HANNA IN SEVERAL RAIN BANDS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS\r\nEXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND HANNA COULD EASILY BE\r\nAN EXTRATROPICAL STORM WITH 50-KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT ANY OF THE\r\nFORECAST TIMES.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 40.5N  73.4W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 43.0N  68.8W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 46.4N  61.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 48.8N  53.2W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z 50.0N  45.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0000Z 52.5N  28.3W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0000Z 56.5N  15.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0000Z 61.5N  11.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Hanna","Adv":42,"Date":"2008-09-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL082008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  42\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082008\r\n500 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH HANNA IS SPREADING OUT WELL AHEAD\r\nOF THE SURFACE CENTER...WITH THE CLOSEST DEEP CONVECTION NOW\r\nDISPLACED ABOUT 125 NMI TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT NOT QUITE ENTANGLED WITH...A\r\nFRONTAL BOUNDARY.  BASED ON THE LOSS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE\r\nCORE...HANNA IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND\r\nTHIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nMAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KT BASED ON SHIP REPORTS...AND\r\nHANNA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE DURING\r\nITS PASSAGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN\r\nGOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS.\r\n \r\nFUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS\r\nFORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OCEAN PREDICTION\r\nCENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 42.6N  70.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 45.4N  64.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z 48.4N  57.1W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 36HR VT     08/1800Z 50.0N  50.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     09/0600Z 51.0N  43.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     10/0600Z 53.5N  27.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     11/0600Z 58.0N  16.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     12/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nana","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-12 21:00:00","Key":"AL142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008\r\n500 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE\r\nLOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS DEGRADED SOME THIS\r\nAFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED SUFFICIENT CONVECTION FOR A\r\nLONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO CONSIDER IT A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  DURING THE\r\nAFTERNOON...THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME EXPOSED WELL TO\r\nTHE WEST OF THE LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO WESTERLY\r\nSHEAR.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS FROM 12Z INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30-35\r\nKT.  GIVEN THE TYPICAL LOW BIAS OF THIS INSTRUMENT...THE CYCLONE IS\r\nDECLARED A TROPICAL STORM...THE FOURTEENTH OF THE 2008 SEASON.  THE\r\nLONG-TERM SURVIVAL OF NANA SEEMS BLEAK AS STRONG UPPER-LEVEL\r\nWESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE.  ALL THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE\r\nSHOWS WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS NANA DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48\r\nHOURS...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF IT OCCURRED SOONER.\r\n\r\nNANA HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290/6 KT.  THE\r\nTRACK GUIDANCE PREDICTS A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF\r\nTHE RIDGE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AND SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST\r\nAHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nATLANTIC.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT IS SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      12/2100Z 16.4N  37.9W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/0600Z 16.7N  39.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N  40.4W    25 KT\r\n 36HR VT     14/0600Z 17.4N  41.7W    25 KT\r\n 48HR VT     14/1800Z 17.9N  43.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     15/1800Z 19.0N  46.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nana","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-13 03:00:00","Key":"AL142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008\r\n1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008\r\n \r\nWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2030Z HAD BELIEVABLE 35 KT\r\nVECTORS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  WITH NO\r\nAPPRECIABLE LET UP OF THE SHEAR INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR TWO...NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT\r\nLOW FAIRLY SOON.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE GFS...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE A LITTLE FARTHER\r\nNORTH.  IF NANA DOES NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED...IT\r\nPROBABLY WOULD INTERACT MORE STRONGLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND\r\nTAKE A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0300Z 16.6N  38.8W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N  40.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.2N  41.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.9N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Nana","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-13 09:00:00","Key":"AL142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008\r\n500 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008\r\n \r\nNANA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND THE\r\nLOW-CLOUD CENTER IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN BLOB OF\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2332 UTC MEASURED 30-35 KT\r\nWINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE\r\nDISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM IT IS POSSIBLE THAT...SINCE THE TIME\r\nOF THAT OVERPASS...NANA MAY HAVE WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nSTRENGTH.  HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...I WILL MAINTAIN\r\nTHE INTENSITY AT 35 KT FOR NOW.  THE GLOBAL MODEL'S 200 MB WIND\r\nFORECASTS SHOWS 25-30 KT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT\r\n36 HOURS OR SO...SO WE DO NOT EXPECT THE SHEAR TO LESSEN\r\nSIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  NANA WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND\r\nDEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS.\r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6.  NANA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE THIS GENERAL MOTION WHILE SITUATED TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF A\r\nLOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS ON THE\r\nSOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND LEANS TOWARD THE SHALLOW\r\nBAM TRACK...ALBEIT NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THAT GUIDANCE.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/0900Z 16.6N  39.3W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     13/1800Z 17.0N  40.1W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.7N  41.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     14/1800Z 18.5N  42.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nana","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008\r\n \r\nAS EXPECTED...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON NANA.\r\nTHE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE\r\nYESTERDAY AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES SUPPORT DOWNGRADING NANA TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. \r\nTHE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS AND NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN \r\nA DAY OR SO. \r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK\r\nAT ABOUT 6 KT.  NANA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nCLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE\r\nOF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 16.8N  39.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.1N  40.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N  41.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N  43.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nana","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008\r\n \r\nCONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NANA HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE TODAY AND\r\nTHE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LOCATED VERY FAR TO THE SOUTHEAST\r\nOF THE CENTER.  STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND\r\nNANA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW VERY SOON.  IT IS\r\nTEMPTING TO DECLARE NANA REMNANT LOW AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER IT\r\nSEEMS BEST TO WAIT A FEW MORE HOURS TO MAKE SURE THAT CONVECTION\r\nDOES NOT TRY TO REFORM. \r\n\r\nNANA HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST\r\nDURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS \r\n295/8 KT.  NANA OR ITS REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A\r\nWEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT\r\nNORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS REQUIRED TO THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 17.5N  40.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 18.1N  41.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 18.9N  42.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 19.9N  44.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BROWN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nana","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008\r\n \r\nNANA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THUS\r\nIT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE A LITTLE LONGER.  STILL...WHAT LITTLE\r\nCONVECTION REMAINS IS DISPLACED EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION\r\nINDICATING STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR HAS NOT ABATED.  NANA IS EXPECTED\r\nTO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG SHEAR AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE\r\nNEXT 12-24 HOURS.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SHORTLY\r\nTHEREAFTER.\r\n \r\nNANA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/10.  A MOTION BETWEEN\r\nWEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE...OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS...DISSIPATES IN ABOUT TWO DAYS.  SINCE NANA'S TRACK HINGES\r\nON HOW LONG IT CAN PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SHALLOW AND MEDIUM\r\nBETA ADVECTION MODELS.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 17.7N  41.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 18.4N  42.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 19.3N  44.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 20.4N  45.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Nana","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL142008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n \r\nNANA HASN'T BEEN PRODUCING ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY FOR TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE STATUS FOR MANY HOURS...SO IT'S TIME TO SING NA NA HEY HEY\r\nKISS HER GOODBYE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON NANA. WITH SUCH\r\nSTRONG SHEAR FORECAST IN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...REGENERATION IS\r\nEXTREMELY UNLIKELY. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST\r\nIS EXPECTED UNTIL THE REMNANT LOW DISSIPATES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 18.4N  43.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 19.3N  44.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 20.5N  46.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 21.8N  48.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BLAKE\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-10-13 15:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008\r\n \r\nTHE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS\r\nDEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED\r\nAS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. NORMALLY...I WOULD WAIT FOR THE\r\nRECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH IN FACT IS SCHEDULE FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO\r\nSTART ADVISORIES...BUT IN THIS CASE...THERE ARE DATA SUPPORTING THE\r\nPRESENCE OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CAN BE\r\nDEPICTED ON THE CURACAO RADAR...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS..CLOUD WIND\r\nVECTORS AND ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING. INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY IS 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND QUIKSCAT.\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS NOT EMBEDDED IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR\r\nSTRENGTHENING SINCE THERE IS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...BUT IS FAVORABLE\r\nENOUGH TO ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO REACH TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY IN 12\r\nTO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME\r\nMAKING THE INTENSITY FORECAST HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. AT THIS TIME...THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE STATISTICAL MODEL SHIPS AND THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODELS GFDL AND HWRF. IN FACT...THE GFDL AND HWRF\r\nFORECAST THE DEPRESSION TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR\r\nPUERTO RICO.\r\n  \r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS\r\nDRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. SINCE NO CHANGE IN STEERING IS EXPECTED FOR\r\nA DAY OR TWO...NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT\r\nPERIOD. THEREAFTER...GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE AND STRONG MID-\r\nLATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED\r\nTO BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS\r\nTROUGH AND RECURVE. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CYCLONE VERY CLOSE\r\nTO PUERTO RICO BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HOURS AND OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC\r\nTHEREAFTER. THIS TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND\r\nALSO IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/1500Z 14.8N  69.6W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N  70.0W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1200Z 15.5N  70.0W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0000Z 16.0N  69.0W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1200Z 17.0N  67.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N  63.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N  59.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1200Z 30.0N  55.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-10-13 21:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008\r\n \r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN ORGANIZATION DURING\r\nTHE DAY AND THE APPARENT CENTER HAS BEEN AT TIMES EXPOSED DUE TO\r\nSHEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE\r\nEXPANDING WESTWARD SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR IS RELAXING A BIT.\r\nSURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE CARIBBEAN INDICATE THAT THERE IS A\r\nLARGE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE.  A RECONNAISSANCE\r\nPLANE IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN THE DEPRESSION SHORTLY.  NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST IS INDICATED AND IT\r\nCONTINUES TO BE A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL\r\nPAIR. THE LATTER MODELS MAKE THE DEPRESSION A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES\r\nNEAR PUERTO RICO.  \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND\r\nLITTLE MOTION IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...\r\nGLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND\r\nSTRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TO\r\nRECURVE AND MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD\r\nSPEED.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE NEAR PUERTO RICO IN\r\nABOUT 48 HOURS AND THEN OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH A\r\nFORECAST POSITION IS INDICATED AT 120 HOURS OVER THE ATLANTIC...\r\nTHERE IS A POSSIBILITY THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY\r\nA LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THAT TIME.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nFOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS.\r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      13/2100Z 14.8N  69.9W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.9N  69.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     14/1800Z 15.5N  69.5W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/0600Z 16.5N  68.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     15/1800Z 17.7N  66.6W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N  63.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     17/1800Z 23.5N  59.5W    60 KT\r\n120HR VT     18/1800Z 27.5N  56.0W    50 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-10-14 03:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2008\r\n \r\nTHE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION\r\nFOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 34 KT FROM 925 MB...WHICH DOES NOT\r\nSUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE WERE SFMR WINDS OF\r\nTROPICAL STORM FORCE...BUT IN RAINY CONDITIONS THIS WIND SPEED\r\nRANGE IS NOT WHERE THE INSTRUMENT PERFORMS BEST.  THE CENTER OF\r\nCIRCULATION IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME\r\nWESTERLY SHEAR STILL EVIDENT IN INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. \r\nWITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE INDICATES\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN IN WHAT SHOULD BE A\r\nMODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE GFDL\r\nAND HWRF BOTH MAKING THE SYSTEM A HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE\r\nCARIBBEAN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.  \r\n\r\nTHERE IS VERY LITTLE SURROUNDING MID-LEVEL FLOW AND THE DEPRESSION\r\nIS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY.  A LARGE UPPER-LOW EAST OF NEW ENGLAND\r\nIS DRIVING SOUTHWARD IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND THIS FEATURE IS\r\nEXPECTED TO BEGIN LIFTING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD IN\r\nANOTHER 24-36 HOURS.  COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS\r\nSHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE\r\nWILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW.  A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW\r\nSHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE.  THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS\r\nIN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF.  THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH\r\nSLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY\r\nARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0300Z 14.6N  69.4W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1200Z 14.8N  69.2W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N  68.6W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N  67.4W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N  66.0W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N  63.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0000Z 24.0N  60.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0000Z 29.0N  58.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Fifteen","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-10-14 09:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE\r\nSYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED\r\nSINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE AREA.  THEREFORE THE\r\nCURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  THE\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE\r\nDEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM. \r\nGLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL\r\nCONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. \r\nNONETHELESS THE CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO\r\nPREVENT SOME INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS\r\nVERY CLOSE TO THIS CONSENSUS. \r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD...OR 130/2. \r\nOBVIOUSLY THE STEERING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE VERY\r\nWEAK AT THIS TIME.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW\r\nA MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH DEEPENING TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE AND A RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS EAST.  THESE DEVELOPMENTS\r\nSHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO TURN EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH A\r\nGRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS\r\nVERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS ALSO QUITE CLOSE TO THE\r\nDYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nRADAR IMAGES FROM CURACAO SHOW RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE\r\nDEPRESSION PASSING OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND LOCALLY HEAVY\r\nRAINS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS TODAY.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/0900Z 14.3N  69.2W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     14/1800Z 14.6N  68.9W    40 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/0600Z 15.3N  68.3W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     15/1800Z 16.6N  67.1W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N  65.5W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/0600Z 21.6N  62.5W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/0600Z 26.0N  59.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/0600Z 31.0N  57.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-10-14 15:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO\r\nBECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY\r\nWITH SOME TOPS TO -86C NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW HAS ALSO IMPROVED\r\nIN ALL QUADRANTS AND IS LESS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHWEST NOW. THE\r\nINITIAL ADVISORY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT\r\nSATELLITE ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...PLUS\r\nSEVERAL BELIEVABLE 30-34 KT QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS NOTED IN THE\r\nNORTHWEST QUADRANT AROUND 1036Z THIS MORNING. THUS...TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FIFTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM OMAR.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 115/02. OMAR HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTH\r\nTO SOUTHEASTWARD THE PAST 12 HOURS...AND CURRENTLY SHOWS NO SIGN OF\r\nCHANGING THAT MOTION. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE\r\nINDICATES THAT A BROAD DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL\r\nAND WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTHWARD AND GRADUALLY\r\nPICK UP OMAR AND NUDGE IT TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...\r\nAND THEN ACCELERATE IT TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER THAT. THE LATEST\r\nTREND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO AS A PIECE OF\r\nSHORTWAVE ENERGY ALONG 70W LONGITUDE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DUE SOUTH.\r\nNHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED CROSS-WISE...BUT THERE ARE\r\nSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND JUST HOW SOON OMAR\r\nGETS PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST\r\nTRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST OR RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK\r\n...MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT NOT AS FAR\r\nEAST OR AS FAST AS THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nRECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO-LIKE AREA OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION\r\nSUGGESTS THAT OMAR MAY BE STARTING A PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING.\r\nIN ADDITION...A LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE\r\nTHAT HAS BEEN DISRUPTING INFLOW INTO THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS\r\nWEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTIVE\r\nFORCING TO OCCUR NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE IMPROVING OUTFLOW\r\nPATTERN AND A FORECAST OF DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS\r\nTHAN 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS FURTHER SUPPORTS A FORECAST OF\r\nSTEADY INTENSIFICATION OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY FOR THE\r\nNEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AHEAD\r\nOF THE LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO GREATER\r\nTHAN 20 KT...SO THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW DOWN BY DAY 2\r\nAND BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/1500Z 14.0N  69.0W    35 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.7N  68.3W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.8N  67.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0000Z 17.3N  65.6W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.6W    65 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1200Z 23.8N  60.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1200Z 28.0N  58.0W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1200Z 33.0N  55.0W    65 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-10-14 21:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RECON DATA INDICATE THAT OMAR HAS\r\nRAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MAXIMUM 850 MB\r\nFLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OBSERVED HAVE ONLY BEEN 63 KT...RELIABLE SFMR\r\nSURFACE WIND DATA HAVE BEEN AS HIGH 57-60 KT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF\r\nTHE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A\r\nDROPSONDE WAS 986 MB...BUT THE SURFACE WIND WAS 46 KT. THEREFORE...\r\nTHE PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 982 MB AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN\r\nINCREASED TO A CONSERVATIVE 60 KT. OMAR CONTINUES TO GET BETTER\r\nORGANIZED IN BOTH RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND VERY COLD CLOUD\r\nTOPS OF -80C TO -87C PERSIST OVER AND NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.\r\nON THE LAST PASS THROUGH THE CENTER OF OMAR...THE FLIGHT CREW\r\nREPORTED A 10-15 NMI DIAMETER EYE WAS FORMING. OUTFLOW ALSO\r\nCONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND EXPAND IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT TO THE\r\nNORTHWEST WHERE IT IS SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 060/06. THE THREE RECON FIXES\r\nTHIS AFTERNOON SUGGEST THAT OMAR MAY BE FINALLY MAKING THE TURN TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING FOR THE PAST\r\nSEVERAL CYCLES. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT\r\n36 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION EXPECTED AFTER THAT AS\r\nOMAR GETS LIFTED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DIGGING\r\nMID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS IS IN THE FORWARD\r\nSPEED OF OMAR AFTER 24 HOURS. THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS RACE\r\nOMAR QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST...WHEREAS THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS\r\nARE NOTICEABLY SLOWER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS...BUT\r\nREMAINS JUST TO THE WEST OF AND SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING...POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION... IS\r\nEXPECTED SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH IN\r\nTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF\r\nTHE SHIPS...GFDL... AND HWRF MODELS...AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nOBTAIN CATEGORY 2 STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL BRINGS OMAR TO 104 KT BY 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE 12Z\r\nHWRF MODEL ONLY BRINGS OMAR TO 88 KT AND THE GFDL ONLY STRENGTHENS\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO 62 KT. BASED ON A STRONGER VORTEX INITIALIZED BY THE\r\nMODELS FOR THE 18Z CYCLE...OUTPUT FROM THOSE MODELS DUE OUT IN A\r\nFEW HOURS MAY BE QUITE DIFFERENT AND MUCH STRONGER. AS A RESULT...\r\nSUBSEQUENT NHC INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARD.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      14/2100Z 14.0N  68.5W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.6N  68.0W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.9N  66.4W    80 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  64.3W    85 KT\r\n 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N  62.1W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     17/1800Z 26.0N  58.4W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     18/1800Z 31.1N  55.5W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     19/1800Z 38.0N  49.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-10-15 03:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008\r\n \r\nTHERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL RECONNAISSANCE DATA THIS EVENING...\r\nHOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT OMAR HAS\r\nBECOME A HURRICANE. A NEARLY COMPLETE EYEWALL HAS BEEN SEEN AT TIMES\r\nON THE CURACAO RADAR...AND OMAR HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA\r\nOF VERY COLD CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER ALL DAY.  DVORAK\r\nCLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z WERE BOTH T4.0...OR 65 KT.\r\nIN ADDITION... THE CIMSS ADT IS RUNNING AROUND T4.5...AND A RECENT\r\nAMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 66 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE\r\nADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS\r\nTHAT THE SHEAR WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR\r\nSO...AND ALL THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE FORECASTS OMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO\r\nA CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE BEFORE IT EXITS THE CARIBBEAN.  IT SHOULD\r\nALSO BE NOTED THAT THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY GUIDANCE INDICATES A\r\n60% CHANCE OF 30 KT OR MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. \r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE THAT AGGRESSIVE...BUT IS A\r\nLITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND VERY CLOSE TO THE ICON\r\nINTENSITY CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nBASED ON THE RADAR IMAGERY THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/5.  THERE HAS\r\nBEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. \r\nWATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING\r\nSOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN\r\nEXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE THE\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN.  THE HWRF AND\r\nGFDL CONTINUE TO LIE ALONG THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nENVELOPE...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE RIGHT...BUT THE MODEL\r\nSPREAD IS NOT LARGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE\r\nCONSENSUS OF THIS TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL CLUSTER. \r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0300Z 14.3N  68.1W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N  67.1W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.7N  65.4W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0000Z 21.9N  61.1W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0000Z 27.0N  58.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0000Z 33.0N  54.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0000Z 41.0N  44.0W    60 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER FRANKLIN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":8,"Date":"2008-10-15 09:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n\r\nAN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT THERE HAS BEEN\r\nNO APPRECIABLE STRENGTHENING OF OMAR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  AN\r\nELLIPTICAL AND PARTIALLY OPEN EYE WAS OBSERVED BUT THE INNER CORE\r\nIS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT FALLEN AND\r\nMAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN NEAR 65\r\nKT...WHICH IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  SATELLITE IMAGES\r\nSHOW THAT OMAR CONTINUES TO GENERATE VERY DEEP CONVECTION WITH A\r\nLARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80 DEG C.  UPPER-LEVEL\r\nOUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND\r\nRESTRICTED TO THE WEST...AS WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE\r\nHURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH\r\nTO PREVENT STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE\r\nSAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. \r\nBY DAY 5...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT THE CYCLONE INTERACTING WITH A\r\nSTRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC SO THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST SHOWS OMAR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME.   \r\n\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 050/6.  THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO\r\nTHE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO\r\nTHE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE ALONG WITH A RIDGE TO THE EAST IS\r\nCREATING A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT AND OMAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nCONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. \r\nTHE FORWARD MOTION SLOWS A LITTLE AROUND DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH LIFTS\r\nOUT AHEAD OF OMAR.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE AGAIN NEAR THE END\r\nOF THE PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE MID-LATITUDE\r\nWESTERLIES.  DYNAMICAL TRACK PREDICTION MODELS ARE TIGHTLY\r\nCLUSTERED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS ALBEIT A LITTLE SLOWER. \r\nTHIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT MORE OR\r\nLESS ALONG THE SAME TRAJECTORY.\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO\r\nRICO...A DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION COULD REQUIRE\r\nCHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THAT\r\nISLAND.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/0900Z 14.6N  67.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     15/1800Z 15.8N  66.5W    75 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N  64.5W    85 KT\r\n 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.8N  62.2W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/0600Z 23.8N  60.2W    90 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/0600Z 29.0N  57.0W    80 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  51.0W    70 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/0600Z 43.0N  37.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":9,"Date":"2008-10-15 15:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n \r\nON ITS FINAL LEG AROUND 11Z...AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT\r\nREPORTED A PEAK SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 70 KT IN THE NORTHWEST\r\nQUADRANT OF OMAR'S EYEWALL. THIS WAS COINCIDENT WITH A NEARBY\r\nDROPSONDE SURFACE WIND VALUE OF 68 KT...SO THE INTENSITY AT THE 12Z\r\nSYNOPTIC TIME WAS INCREASED TO 70 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE LAST\r\nRECON FLIGHT...THE EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITE\r\nIMAGERY...AND ALSO IN THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA AT A\r\nRANGE OF MORE THAN 200 NMI. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A\r\nCONSENSUS T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY\r\nHAS BEEN INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE AND\r\nRADAR SIGNATURES.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/08. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY. OMAR IS\r\nBASICALLY ON THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND THE NHC MODEL\r\nGUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN\r\nABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AS IT\r\nGETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF\r\nA LARGE DEEPENING MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN\r\nATLANTIC. A PIECE OF THE TROUGH BREAKS OFF AND LIFTS OUT TO THE\r\nNORTHEAST IN 72-96 HOURS...WHICH BRIEFLY WEAKENS THE STEERING FLOW.\r\nAFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO\r\nINCREASE AHEAD OF A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WHICH IS\r\nEXPECTED TO ACCELERATE OMAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35-40 KT. THE\r\nOFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE\r\nPREVIOUS TRACK AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nNOW THAT A DISTINCT EYE AND EYEWALL HAVE DEVELOPED...A GOOD CHIMNEY\r\nEFFECT CAN BE ESTABLISHED AND OMAR COULD GO THROUGH A BRIEF PERIOD\r\nOF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AGAIN. ONLY THE GFDL MODEL IS CALLING FOR\r\nOMAR TO STRENGTHEN TO AT LEAST 90 KT. THE REMAINDER OF THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE HOLDS OMAR BELOW 80 KT. BASED ON THE BETTER\r\nDEFINED EYE FEATURE...AND THE FACT THAT OMAR IS A RELATIVELY LOW\r\nSHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C AND WARMER SSTS...ADDITIONAL\r\nINTENSIFICATION SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE.\r\nIT ALSO ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT OMAR COULD ACHIEVE MAJOR\r\nHURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES THE NORTHERN\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE RAPID ENCROACHMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL\r\nAIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY\r\nPRECLUDES EXPLICITLY FORECASTING THAT INTENSITY AT THIS TIME SINCE\r\nTHAT DRY AIR COULD MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CORE REGION IN 12-18\r\nHOURS AND WEAKEN THE HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS THE CENTER EAST OF PUERTO\r\nRICO...ONLY A SLIGHT DEVIATION TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT MOTION\r\nCOULD REQUIRE CHANGING THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING\r\nFOR THAT ISLAND.  ALSO...STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY\r\nHIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500\r\nFT ELEVATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/1500Z 15.2N  67.2W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N  65.9W    80 KT\r\n 24HR VT     16/1200Z 19.1N  63.9W    90 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\n 36HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N  61.8W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.7N  60.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1200Z 30.0N  56.5W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  48.5W    65 KT\r\n120HR VT     20/1200Z 45.0N  32.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":10,"Date":"2008-10-15 21:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n \r\nTWO RECENT PASSES THROUGH OMAR'S EYE INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE\r\nDECREASED BY AT LEAST 4 MB...DOWN TO 973 MB. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE\r\nHURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ALSO MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL\r\nWIND OF 89 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH EQUATES TO ABOUT AN\r\n80-KT SURFACE WIND...DESPITE THE HIGHEST SFMR SURFACE MEASURED\r\nHAVING ONLY BEEN 74 KT. HOWEVER...THE RECON AIRCRAFT AND THE\r\nCONVECTION HAVE BEEN PLAYING A GAME OF CAT-AND-MOUSE...AND I DO NOT\r\nBELIEVE THAT THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN SAMPLING THE STRONGEST WINDS IN\r\nTHE STRONGEST CONVECTION. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED\r\nTO 80 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE LOW GIVEN THAT THE PRESSURE-WIND\r\nRELATIONSHIP FOR 973 MB CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 85 KT.\r\n \r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/013. AFTER AN EARLIER JOG TO THE\r\nEAST-NORTHEAST...IT APPEARS THAT OMAR HAS RESUMED ITS BASE COURSE\r\nBACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO\r\nTHE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PHILOSOPHY AS ALL OF THE TRACK\r\nMODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION\r\nTHROUGH THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS IN\r\n12-18 HOURS HOURS. AFTER THAT...OMAR IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE AS\r\nIT GETS DRAWN RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW\r\nON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH THAT IS\r\nFORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN AND\r\nCENTRAL ATLANTIC BY DAY 3. DURING DAYS 4-5...OMAR IS EXPECTED TO\r\nACCELERATE THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR EASTWARD AT FORWARD SPEEDS IN\r\nEXCESS OF 35 KT AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE MUCH COOLER\r\nWATERS OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS SLOWER THAN\r\nTHE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH HAS HAD A NOTICEABLE FAST FORWARD\r\nSPEED BIAS.\r\n \r\nSTRONG CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN THE EYEWALL\r\nAND RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN HAS INDICATED OCCASIONAL DISTINCT\r\nMESOVORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE INNER PORTION OF THE EYEWALL. THIS\r\nFAVORABLE SMALL-SCALE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PERSISTS FOR ANOTHER\r\n12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH MEANS THAT OMAR HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF\r\nREACHING AT LEAST CATEGORY 2 INTENSITY BEFORE IT MOVES THROUGH THE\r\nNORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE\r\nGFDL MODEL WAS MUCH MORE BULLISH WITH OMAR ON THE 12Z MODEL RUN AND\r\nBRINGS THE HURRICANE UP TO 109 KT BY 18-24 HOURS. THAT MUCH\r\nINTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVERDONE GIVEN SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF A\r\nRAPIDLY SHRINKING CDO FEATURE...PLUS THE INTRUSION OF DRY MID-LEVEL\r\nINTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...SINCE OMAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER\r\n29C SSTS...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO 90 KT SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE\r\n...AND WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT DURING THE USUAL\r\nNOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.  ALSO...INTERESTS IN THE\r\nLEEWARD ISLANDS ARE REMINDED THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE\r\nCATEGORY HIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY\r\nABOVE 500 FT ELEVATION.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      15/2100Z 15.9N  66.1W    80 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/0600Z 17.6N  64.8W    85 KT...NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS\r\n 24HR VT     16/1800Z 20.4N  62.9W    90 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/0600Z 23.2N  60.9W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     17/1800Z 26.1N  59.2W    85 KT\r\n 72HR VT     18/1800Z 31.7N  54.8W    75 KT\r\n 96HR VT     19/1800Z 39.0N  44.5W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     20/1800Z 48.0N  27.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":11,"Date":"2008-10-16 03:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2008\r\n \r\nJUST-RECEIVED DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER\r\nINVESTIGATING OMAR SHOWED 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 117 KT...AND\r\nAN ESTIMATED SURFACE WIND FROM THE SFMR OF 108 KT IN THE\r\nSOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 967 MB.  ON THIS\r\nBASIS...OMAR IS UPGRADED TO A 100-KT MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.  SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA\r\nARE CONSISTENT WITH THE AIRCRAFT-REPORTED INTENSIFICATION...SHOWING\r\nINCREASED ORGANIZATION IN BOTH THE EYE AND EYEWALL.\r\n \r\nOMAR HAS ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE INITIAL\r\nMOTION IS NOW 050/17.  IN THE SHORT TERM...THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS\r\nFORECASTING A 15-20 DEGREE LEFT TURN THAT SO FAR HAS NOT OCCURRED.\r\nOTHER THAN THAT...THE TRACK FORECAST IS STRAIGHT FORWARD.  OMAR IS\r\nEMBEDDED IN MID/UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A\r\nLARGE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.  WHILE THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS\r\nFORECAST THIS TROUGH TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT\r\n48 HOURS...THEY FORECAST A SECOND TROUGH TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE\r\nWESTERN ATLANTIC BY 96 HOURS.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP\r\nOMAR ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY COURSE WITH SOME VARIATION IN SPEED\r\nDURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MORE EASTWARD MOTION WITH\r\nACCELERATION AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE CORE OF THE WESTERLIES.  THE\r\nFORECAST GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH SOME\r\nSPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION AFTER THAT TIME.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH\r\nTHE FIRST 72 HOURS AND A LITTLE SLOWER AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.  THIS\r\nFORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.\r\n \r\nTHE FORECAST TRACK TAKES OMAR OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE\r\nTEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER ABOUT 24\r\nHOURS.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF\r\nOPPORTUNITY IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR OMAR TO PEAK AT 105 KT IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...\r\nOMAR SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN...WITH THE STORM UNDERGOING\r\nEXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT ABOUT 96 HOURS.  IT IS\r\nIMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT STRONGER WINDS...POSSIBLY ONE CATEGORY\r\nHIGHER...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ABOVE 500\r\nFT ELEVATION.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0300Z 17.4N  64.5W   100 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1200Z 19.4N  63.1W   105 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0000Z 22.2N  61.2W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1200Z 25.0N  59.3W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0000Z 27.6N  57.5W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0000Z 34.0N  53.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0000Z 41.0N  41.5W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0000Z 47.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":12,"Date":"2008-10-16 09:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008\r\n \r\nAN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF\r\nOMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132\r\nAND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE\r\nEYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE.  OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS\r\nOSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT\r\nTIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115\r\nKNOTS EARLIER. HOWEVER...SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS\r\nDETERIORATED AND HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC. THE EYE IS NO LONGER\r\nDISTINCT ON IR IMAGES AND THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS RISEN. THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 110 KNOTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS\r\nIN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO BUT THE\r\nGENERAL TREND IS FOR OMAR TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS ENCOUNTERS\r\nSTRONGER SHEAR. THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL\r\nCHARACTERISTICS IN 96 HOURS OR SOONER.  \r\n\r\nDATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND RADAR FROM PUERTO RICO\r\nINDICATE THAT THE CORE OF OMAR WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS CROSSED THE\r\nAREA OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN ST. MAARTEN AND THE VIRGIN\r\nISLANDS...OR THE ANEGADA PASSAGE. OMAR HAS INCREASED ITS FORWARD\r\nSPEED AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS\r\nAND SOON WILL CLEAR THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE HURRICANE IS\r\nFULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE\r\nMID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR ACCELERATION AND\r\nA CONTINUATION OF THE NORTHEAST MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS\r\nIN AGREEMENT WITH TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE\r\nGUIDANCE ENVELOPE. \r\n\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/0900Z 19.1N  63.2W   110 KT\r\n 12HR VT     16/1800Z 21.7N  61.0W   110 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/0600Z 26.0N  58.5W   100 KT\r\n 36HR VT     17/1800Z 30.0N  55.5W    90 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/0600Z 33.5N  52.0W    80 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/0600Z 37.0N  45.0W    65 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/0600Z 40.0N  37.0W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/0600Z 42.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":13,"Date":"2008-10-16 15:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008\r\n \r\nIT IS SIMPLY AMAZING TO ME AT HOW QUICKLY A HURRICANE CAN SPIN UP\r\nAND JUST AS QUICKLY FALL APART.  OMAR REACHED NEAR THE THRESHOLD OF \r\nCATEGORY 4 EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 06Z AND NOW WE HAVE AN EXPOSED\r\nLOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOWING UP IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST A\r\nFEW HOURS LATER.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUES WERE\r\nSUGGESTING AROUND 90-100 KT AT 12Z.  BUT GIVEN THE RAPID\r\nDETERIORATION OF THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY\r\nIS ESTIMATED...WITH SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY...TO BE 75 KT.\r\n\r\nDESPITE VERY WARM WATERS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR\r\nAND LOW TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE\r\nWATER IMAGERY...HAS PRODUCED THE WEAKENING IN OMAR AND WILL LIKELY\r\nCONTINUE TO CAUSE A DECREASE IN ITS INTENSITY.  BECAUSE THE TREND\r\nOF OMAR'S INTENSITY WAS NOT CORRECTLY ANALYZED AT SYNOPTIC\r\nTIME...THE STATISTICAL MODELS...SHIPS AND LGEM...ARE PROVIDING\r\nVALUES THAT ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH.  THE FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE\r\nHWRF MODEL WHICH DID VERY WELL IN ANTICIPATING THIS MORNING'S RAPID\r\nWEAKENING OF OMAR.  AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AROUND DAY\r\n4...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT RE-INTENSIFICATION WILL\r\nTAKE PLACE AT THAT TIME BASED UPON THE GLOBAL MODELS' CONSENSUS.\r\n\r\nTHE NOW EASY-TO-SEE CENTER DID FORCE US TO MAKE A LAST SECOND\r\nRELOCATION OF THE INITIAL POSITION AS WELL AS THE SHORT TERM TRACK\r\nFORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN LOCATION THAN AT FIRST\r\nESTIMATED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CLOSELY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72\r\nHR...BUT THEN SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE\r\nTRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE FASTER CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL AND\r\nHURRICANE MODELS AND THE SLOWER PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/1500Z 20.2N  61.3W    75 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  59.5W    70 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1200Z 28.0N  56.9W    65 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0000Z 31.3N  54.3W    60 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1200Z 33.4N  51.9W    55 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1200Z 38.0N  45.0W    55 KT\r\n 96HR VT     20/1200Z 40.0N  34.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1200Z 40.0N  23.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":14,"Date":"2008-10-16 21:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008\r\n \r\nOMAR'S CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY...WHILE THE\r\nPRINCIPAL BAND TO ITS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH STILL CONTAINS VIGOROUS\r\nDEEP CONVECTION.  CONSTRAINTS ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE ARE STILL\r\nFORCING TAFB AND SAB TO INDICATE ABOUT A 90 KT HURRICANE. \r\nHOWEVER...BASED ON THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL\r\nFEATURES...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KT.\r\n\r\nTHE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...\r\n30 DEGREES AT 23 KT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER LOW TO\r\nITS NORTH AND MID TO LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THE TRACK\r\nGUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 72 HR ALONG A TRACK TOWARD\r\nTHE NORTHEAST. BUT AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BEGINS...THE VARIOUS\r\nMODELS SPLIT INTO TWO DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THE NOGAPS...UKMET...AND\r\nGFDL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT\r\nRE-INTENSIFICATION AND EXPANSION IN SIZE NEAR THE AZORES. IN\r\nCONTRAST...THE ECMWF...GFS...AND HWRF MODELS INDICATE THAT THE\r\nCYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...BE MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST...AND\r\nEVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OFF OF\r\nSOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY THIS ADVISORY IS THE\r\nLATTER SCENARIO...THOUGH IT IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE\r\nEXACTLY WHEN AND HOW EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL OCCUR. THE\r\nFORECAST TRACK IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND WEST OF THE\r\nCORRECTED MODEL CONSENSUS.\r\n \r\nDESPITE BEING OVER VERY WARM WATER...THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY\r\nVERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR BEING WRAPPED INTO THE INNER CORE\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OMAR.  HOWEVER...THE RAPID MOTION OF THE\r\nCYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST MAY SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE NEGATIVE IMPACT OF\r\nTHE SHEAR.  THE FAST FORWARD MOTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE\r\nWINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE VORTEX.  THUS ONLY GRADUAL WEAKENING\r\nIS INDICATED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM\r\nSTATISTICAL MODELS SUGGEST MORE RAPID WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION...THOUGH THESE TECHNIQUES ARE HEAVILY WEIGHTING THE\r\nLARGE NEGATIVE PERSISTENCE FACTOR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE\r\nTO THE GFDL AND HWRF SOLUTIONS AND IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN INDICATED\r\nIN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      16/2100Z 22.1N  59.7W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/0600Z 25.0N  57.6W    65 KT\r\n 24HR VT     17/1800Z 28.2N  55.1W    60 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/0600Z 30.1N  53.2W    55 KT\r\n 48HR VT     18/1800Z 32.2N  50.9W    50 KT\r\n 72HR VT     19/1800Z 36.0N  46.0W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     20/1800Z 38.0N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     21/1800Z 38.0N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":15,"Date":"2008-10-17 03:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 PM EDT THU OCT 16 2008\r\n\r\nOMAR HAS A RATHER NON-TROPICAL APPEARANCE THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE\r\nORGANIZED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  RECENT AMSU MICROWAVE DATA\r\nINDICATES THAT OMAR HAS LOST ITS UPPER-LEVEL WARM CORE DUE TO\r\nSHEAR...BUT RETAINS A LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM CORE.  THAT...COMBINED\r\nWITH NO OBVIOUS EVIDENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\nNEARBY...MEANS THAT IT REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE THE\r\nAPPEARANCE.  A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWED A RELIABLE-LOOKING\r\n65 KT WIND VECTOR AND SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS.  BASED ON THIS...OMAR\r\nIS BELIEVED TO HAVE BEEN A HURRICANE UP TO 00Z...BUT HAS NOW LIKELY\r\nWEAKENED TO A 60-KT TROPICAL STORM.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS\r\nADVISORY...040/22.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE\r\nFORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE FORECAST TRACK.  OMAR IS MOVING\r\nNORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST.  THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT\r\nTO THE NORTHEAST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE OMAR TO SLOW ITS FORWARD\r\nMOTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS\r\nTIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72\r\nHR...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AFTER 72\r\nHR.  THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD OVER\r\nTHE TOP OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST IT\r\nTO BE ABSORBED BY A STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS\r\nTHE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCLEAR WHICH OF THESE\r\nSCENARIOS WILL BE CORRECT.  THUS...THE TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR AN\r\nEASTWARD MOTION AT A SPEED BETWEEN THAT OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED\r\nGLOBAL MODELS.\r\n\r\nTHE BIGGEST ISSUE ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WHETHER OMAR WILL BE\r\nABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO BE CALLED A\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE.  ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF\r\nWISCONSIN SHOW THAT OMAR IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING ABOUT 40 KT OF\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN AT LEAST MODERATE VERTICAL\r\nSHEAR...ALTHOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE\r\nSOME IN THE NEXT 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR\r\nFOLLOWS THE SCENARIO THAT OMAR WILL DEVELOP ENOUGH CONVECTION TO\r\nKEEP IF FROM DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO\r\nKEEP IT FROM WEAKENING.  THUS...THIS PART OF THE FORECAST SHOWS\r\nGRADUAL WEAKENING.  AFTER 48 HR...OMAR WILL CROSS THE 26C SEA\r\nSURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM...ENCOUNTER INCREASING WIND SHEAR...\r\nAND BEGIN MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72-96 HR...AND KEEPS OMAR AT\r\n35 KT DURING THIS TIME.  IF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECASTS VERIFY...\r\nOMAR COULD RE-INTENSIFY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN\r\nATLANTIC.  HOWEVER...THAT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE\r\nFORECAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0300Z 23.8N  58.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1200Z 26.4N  56.2W    55 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0000Z 29.3N  54.0W    50 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1200Z 31.3N  51.9W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0000Z 33.3N  49.6W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/0000Z 37.0N  43.5W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0000Z 38.0N  35.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0000Z 38.0N  28.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":16,"Date":"2008-10-17 09:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME LESS SYMMETRIC WITH MOST OF THE\r\nCONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO WIND SHEAR. ON THE\r\nCONTRARY... DATA FROM A 0545 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATE THAT THE AREA\r\nOF STRONGEST WINDS ARE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  BASED\r\nON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND DATA FROM ASCAT...THE INITIAL\r\nINTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS HEADING\r\nTOWARD INCREASING SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL\r\nFORECAST CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL WEAKENING FOLLOWING THE SAME\r\nWEAKENING RATE AS THE SHIPS MODEL.  OMAR SHOULD BE FULLY\r\nEXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS OR LESS.\r\n\r\nTHERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ON THE INITIAL MOTION AND OMAR\r\nIS STILL HEADING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 040 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS.\r\nOMAR SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. HOWEVER...A\r\nDECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED SINCE THE TROUGH THAT HAS\r\nBEEN FORCING OMAR TO MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS WEAKENING\r\nRESULTING IN LIGHTER STEERING CURRENTS.  BASICALLY....ALL TRACK\r\nMODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 48 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...MODEL\r\nTHE SPREAD INCREASES BUT THEY ALL BRING THE SYSTEM ON A GENERAL\r\nEASTWARD TRACK AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.        \r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/0900Z 26.0N  56.4W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     17/1800Z 28.7N  54.4W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/0600Z 31.0N  52.5W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.0N  50.5W    35 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/0600Z 35.0N  48.0W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/0600Z 38.5N  42.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/0600Z 40.0N  35.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/0600Z 40.0N  28.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":17,"Date":"2008-10-17 15:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008\r\n \r\nOMAR HAS RE-INTENSIFIED SOME THIS MORNING AS SHOWN IN THE STRONGLY\r\nCURVED BANDED STRUCTURE FROM GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE\r\nDVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUGGESTED 55 KT AT 12 UTC...THOUGH\r\nIMPROVED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE WOULD INDICATE A STRONGER CYCLONE AT\r\nADVISORY TIME. ADDITIONALLY...A WELL-PLACED QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT\r\n0922 UTC SHOWED SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 55-60 KT VECTORS AND TWO\r\nHURRICANE FORCE WINDS...THOUGH THESE MIGHT HAVE SOME RAIN\r\nCONTAMINATION BOOSTING THE VALUES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 60\r\nKT...ALTHOUGH OMAR COULD BE A MARGINAL HURRICANE.\r\n \r\nOMAR HAS ACCELERATED TO ABOUT 30 KT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE\r\nINFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST AND A\r\nDEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS TROUGH ADVECTS ALONG QUICKLY\r\nTOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND LEAVES OMAR BEHIND...LIKELY CAUSING\r\nTHE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE\r\nEXTRATROPICAL STORM THAT WILL EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nEARLY ON SUNDAY IS THE FEATURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO ABSORB OMAR LATE\r\nIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS THE SOLUTION FAVORED BY ALL OF THE\r\nGLOBAL AND HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS WHICH\r\nMAINTAINS OMAR AS A SEPARATE ENTITY AND LOOPS IT BACK TOWARD THE\r\nSOUTH AND WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED A BLEND OF A CONSENSUS\r\nOF THESE MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...AND THE FASTER\r\nPREVIOUS ADVISORY.\r\n\r\nOMAR HAS A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO INTENSIFY BEFORE REACHING\r\nCOOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. \r\nCURRENTLY...OMAR IS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF...BUT FASTER THAN...\r\nTHE SHEAR VECTOR...WHICH MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT COUNTERACTED THE\r\nOTHERWISE LARGE NEGATIVE SHEAR INFLUENCE.  ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR\r\nIS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NEARLY SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN THE MID TO\r\nLOW TROPOSPHERE.  THE FORECAST CALLS FOR NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN\r\nWINDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER\r\n...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM STATISTICAL AND HWRF DYNAMICAL\r\nMODELS.  \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/1500Z 28.9N  55.1W    60 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0000Z 31.4N  53.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1200Z 33.4N  51.3W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0000Z 35.1N  49.2W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1200Z 36.6N  47.0W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     20/1200Z 39.0N  42.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1200Z 40.5N  36.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Omar","Adv":18,"Date":"2008-10-17 21:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nHURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008\r\n \r\nOMAR HAS EXHIBITED A DISTINCT EYE FEATURE...ALBEIT EMBEDDED IN WEAK\r\nCONVECTION...IN BOTH CONVENTIONAL AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY. A\r\nSATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT SUPPORTS MAKING OMAR A\r\nHURRICANE AGAIN. THE 1601Z TRMM OVERPASS THAT DEPICTED A\r\nWELL-DEFINED CLOSED LOW- AND MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE SUGGESTS THAT\r\nOMAR WAS LIKELY A HURRICANE AT 12Z AS WELL.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION VECTOR IS 030/25. NOW THAT CONVECTION HAS STARTED\r\nTO WEAKEN...MAKING THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION MORE SHALLOW...THE\r\nFORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE\r\nCORRESPONDING STEERING FLOW ALSO WEAKENS. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE\r\nTROUGH IS NOW PASSING DIRECTLY OVER OMAR...AND THIS FEATURE IS\r\nFORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING OUT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. BEHIND\r\nTHE TROUGH...THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHICH SHOULD\r\nRESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE\r\nNEXT 48 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...OMAR IS FORECAST TO TURN MORE EASTWARD\r\nWITHIN DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT EXTRATROPICAL\r\nSTORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST\r\nON SUNDAY-MONDAY. THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS TO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ABSORB OMAR IN 96 TO\r\n120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR IN FORWARD SPEED\r\nTO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL\r\nCONSENSUS DUE TO A PERCEIVED SHARP SOUTHWARD TRACK BIAS AND TURN BY\r\nTHE NOGAPS MODEL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 72 HOURS.\r\n \r\nTHE 65-KT INTENSITY RECENTLY ACHIEVED BY OMAR IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION AND THE FACT THAT\r\nTHE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS IN 12 HOURS...IF NOT\r\nSOONER. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECAPITATED BY AN\r\nUPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE\r\nCYCLONE...ONCE THAT FEATURE MOVES AWAY FROM OMAR...A RE-FIRING OF\r\nSIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT. FOR THAT\r\nREASON...THE INTENSITY IS NOT BEING FORECAST TO DECREASE TOO\r\nQUICKLY SIMPLY BASED ON THE CURRENT POOR SATELLITE SIGNATURE. IN\r\nTHE LONGER TERM...HOWEVER...STEADY WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO DECREASING SSTS BENEATH THE\r\nCYCLONE AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...ESPECIALLY BY 36 TO 48\r\nHOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH\r\nTHE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL AND THE HWRF DYNAMICAL MODEL.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      17/2100Z 31.2N  53.6W    65 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/0600Z 32.9N  52.2W    60 KT\r\n 24HR VT     18/1800Z 34.9N  49.9W    55 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  47.3W    50 KT\r\n 48HR VT     19/1800Z 38.0N  44.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     20/1800Z 39.5N  39.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     21/1800Z 39.5N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     22/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":19,"Date":"2008-10-18 03:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008\r\n\r\nTHE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH OMAR HAS DECREASED AGAIN THIS\r\nEVENING...WITH THE REMAINING CONVECTION IN A RAGGED BAND WELL\r\nSOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...AN AMSU OVERPASS NEAR 20Z SHOWS\r\nTHAT THE CYCLONE HAS A DEEP-LAYER WARM CORE...WHICH SSM/I IMAGERY\r\nSHOWS IS SURROUNDED BY MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY/COOL AIR.  A QUIKSCAT\r\nOVERPASS NEAR 22Z SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN THE WINDS FROM\r\nTHE EARLIER OVERPASS...WITH NO RELIABLE-LOOKING VECTORS SHOWING\r\nWINDS OF MORE THAN 45 TO 50 KT.  AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 20Z\r\nWERE 55 TO 60 KT...WHILE REGULAR SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE\r\nTROPICAL 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SUBTROPICAL 35-40 KT FROM SAB.  THE\r\nINITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF\r\nTHESE ESTIMATES...AND THIS MIGHT BE A BIT GENEROUS.  THE INITIAL\r\nWIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA.\r\n\r\nOMAR HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE\r\nINITIAL MOTION IS NOW 040/14.  IN THE SHORT TERM...OMAR SHOULD\r\nCONTINUE A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE\r\nOVER THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES TO\r\nTHE NORTH.  THE FIRST 48 HR OF THE FORECAST IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF\r\nTHE FAIRLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE.  AFTER 48 HR...THE GFS...\r\nECMWF...UKMET..AND HWRF SHOW OMAR BEING ABSORBED INTO A BAROCLINIC\r\nLOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THIS AFTER OMAR\r\nTURNS MORE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW.  THE NOGAPS...THE\r\nBAMD...THE BAMM...AND THE LBAR FORECAST OMAR TO TURN EASTWARD AND\r\nEVENTUALLY SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE NEW\r\nFORECAST TRACK WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF\r\nSOLUTION...CALLING FOR OMAR TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER 72 HR. \r\nHOWEVER...OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE OTHER MODELS AND THE PREVIOUS\r\nFORECAST...THE NEW FORECAST IS NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THAT OF THOSE\r\nMODELS.\r\n \r\nOMAR IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF LESS THAN 26C...AND\r\nIS LIKELY TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR\r\nAFTER 24 HR.  WHILE ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FLARE-UP CANNOT BE RULED\r\nOUT...THESE CONDITIONS INDICATE THE STORM SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN\r\nTHROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS SUPPORTED BY ALL THE\r\nINTENSITY GUIDANCE.  OMAR SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 48-72 HR\r\nAS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  IF THE\r\nGFS/UKMET/ECMWF/HWRF SCENARIO VERIFIES...OMAR WILL BE ABSORBED BY\r\nTHE WARM FRONT OF THE ONCOMING BAROCLINIC LOW...WITH THE FORMER\r\nTROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWING LITTLE RE-INTENSIFICATION AS AN\r\nEXTRATROPICAL LOW. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 48-96 HR PORTION OF THE\r\nINTENSITY FORECAST.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0300Z 31.5N  52.8W    55 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1200Z 33.3N  51.1W    50 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0000Z 35.1N  48.7W    45 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1200Z 36.7N  46.2W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     20/0000Z 38.3N  43.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0000Z 39.5N  39.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0000Z 42.0N  36.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":20,"Date":"2008-10-18 09:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n500 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008\r\n \r\nCENTRAL CONVECTION...AND I USE THAT TERM QUITE LOOSELY IN THIS\r\nCASE...HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AND INNER-CORE CLOUD TOPS\r\nARE BARELY -20C...WITH MOST TOPS WARMER THAN -10C. ONE COULD\r\nCERTAINLY ARGUE THAT OMAR MAY NOT EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE.\r\nHOWEVER...I DON'T LIKE DROPPING SYSTEMS AT NIGHT OVER THE OPEN\r\nOCEAN JUST IN CASE A BRIEF FLARE UP OF CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.\r\nTHE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS BASED THE WELL-DEFINED\r\nEYE-LIKE FEATURE AND A DVORAK CI NUMBER OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB.\r\n\r\nTHE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 045/14. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nCHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. OMAR IS\r\nEXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY\r\nEAST-NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A\r\nSUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 2\r\nDAYS. BY 48 HOURS...THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE\r\nWESTERLY AHEAD OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF\r\nTHE U.S.EAST COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FORCE OMAR ON A MORE\r\nEASTERLY TRACK. BY 72 HOURS...OMAR IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE\r\nMODELS TO BE PULLED SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE\r\nAPPROACHING LARGER EXTRATROPICAL TO THE WEST...AND EVENTUALLY BE\r\nABSORBED BY THE LOW IN 96-120 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS\r\nSIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.\r\n\r\nOMAR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS AND BENEATH INCREASING\r\nSOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING APPEARS\r\nLIKELY. IF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEGENERATION TREND CONTINUES...\r\nTHEN OMAR COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/0900Z 32.9N  51.5W    50 KT\r\n 12HR VT     18/1800Z 34.3N  49.8W    45 KT\r\n 24HR VT     19/0600Z 36.1N  47.3W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     19/1800Z 37.6N  44.6W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 48HR VT     20/0600Z 38.7N  42.1W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 72HR VT     21/0600Z 40.3N  38.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n 96HR VT     22/0600Z 43.0N  35.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL\r\n120HR VT     23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER STEWART\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Omar","Adv":21,"Date":"2008-10-18 15:00:00","Key":"AL152008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL STORM OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008\r\n1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008\r\n \r\nOMAR HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION. I WAS LUCKY ENOUGH TO HAVE A QUIKSCAT AND AN ASCAT PASS\r\nOVER THE CYCLONE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS\r\nBEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS AND THESE WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OCCURRING TO\r\nTHE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BECAUSE OMAR HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP\r\nCONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS...IT DOES NOT MEET THE CRITERIA\r\nFOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND IT IS NOW A REMNANT LOW .\r\n \r\nTHE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 13 KNOTS. NOW THAT\r\nOMAR IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TO\r\nTHE NORTHEAST AND THE EAST-NORTHEAST BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF\r\nA COLD FRONT.\r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON OMAR. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS\r\nSYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL\r\nWEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER\r\nFZNT01 KWBC.\r\n\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      18/1500Z 33.4N  50.7W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 12HR VT     19/0000Z 34.7N  48.9W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     19/1200Z 36.5N  46.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     20/0000Z 37.5N  43.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     20/1200Z 38.0N  41.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 72HR VT     21/1200Z 39.0N  38.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 96HR VT     22/1200Z 41.0N  36.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n120HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2008-07-05 21:00:00","Key":"EP052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1 CORRECTED\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008\r\n200 PM PDT SAT JUL 05 2008\r\n\r\n..CORRECTION TO AWIPS BIN NUMBER...\r\n \r\nVISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER\r\nSOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CIRCULATION AND DEEP\r\nCONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THERE\r\nIS SOME SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION AND DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE\r\nSLOW. NEVERTHELESS...THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A\r\nTROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS OR SO.\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AT THIS TIME AND APPEARS TO\r\nBE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL MOTION\r\nIS UNCERTAIN BUT IT APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 4\r\nKNOTS.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING\r\nCURRENTS...ONLY A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...3 TO 4 KNOTS...IS\r\nEXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST WOULD KEEP THE\r\nCYCLONE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR\r\nABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS...AND ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH WOULD\r\nBRING THE CENTER TO THE COAST OR EVEN INLAND. IN FACT...SOME THE\r\nGLOBAL MODELS BRING THE DEPRESSION INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO\r\nIN A FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN\r\nISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST...AND THIS WARNING WILL PROBABLY\r\nHAVE TO BE REVISED LATER ON.\r\n \r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      05/2100Z 14.5N  99.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/0600Z 14.7N  99.6W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.3N 100.0W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/0600Z 16.0N 100.5W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     07/1800Z 16.5N 101.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     08/1800Z 17.5N 103.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N 105.0W    40 KT\r\n120HR VT     10/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W    40 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER AVILA\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2008-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"EP052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008\r\n800 PM PDT SAT JUL 05 2008\r\n \r\nSATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL\r\nDEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS A STRUCTURE SIMILAR TO THE MONSOON CYCLONES\r\nOF THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND NORTH INDIAN OCEANS.  THE\r\nSCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED AN AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ABOUT 70-80 N\r\nMI FROM THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A SECOND LARGE AREA OF\r\n20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE\r\nCENTER.  THE DEPRESSION IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD STRONG...BUT\r\nDISORGANIZED...CONVECTION.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB\r\nAND SAB REMAIN 25 KT...SO THAT REMAINS THE INITIAL INTENSITY.\r\n\r\nTHE CENTER IS HARD TO PINPOINT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER\r\nUNCERTAIN 315/6.  THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A WEAK\r\nLOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. \r\nTHE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD...WITH THE GFS...\r\nUKMET...HWRF...AND NOGAPS FORECASTING THE SYSTEM TO MAKE LANDFALL\r\nON THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR OR WEST OF ACAPULCO...WHILE THE GFDL...\r\nECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION\r\nNEAR THE COAST.  THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION FOR THE FIRST 24-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD\r\nMOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE OLD TRACK AFTER\r\nSOME ADJUSTMENT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION...AND LIES BETWEEN THE\r\nGFDL AND THE ECMWF.   IT SHOULD BE NOTED JUST ABOUT ANY MOTION TO\r\nTHE RIGHT OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER ONTO THE MEXICAN\r\nCOAST.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SOME ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE\r\nFIRST 24 HR AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES.\r\n \r\nUPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS\r\nPRODUCING 20-25 KT OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE CENTER...AND THE\r\nLARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS CONDITION TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST\r\n72 HR.  THIS COMBINED WITH THE SPRAWLING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM\r\nSUGGESTS THAT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE SLOW...IF IT OCCURS AT ALL.  \r\nTHE ONLY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS THE\r\nSHIPS MODEL...WHICH CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 53 KT IN 60 HR. \r\nGIVEN THE SIMILARITY OF THE SYSTEM TO A MONSOON CYCLONE...WHICH CAN\r\nINTENSIFY IN THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT...THE INTENSITY FORECAST\r\nCALLS FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING AS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SHIPS\r\nAND LGEM MODELS.  AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL\r\nDISSIPATE IF IT MAKES LANDFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0300Z 14.5N 100.0W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1200Z 15.0N 100.3W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0000Z 15.7N 100.8W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1200Z 16.4N 101.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0000Z 17.0N 102.2W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 104.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0000Z 19.0N 106.0W    45 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N 109.5W    45 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER BEVEN\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":3,"Date":"2008-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"EP052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008\r\n200 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n \r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E HAS BEEN PROBLEMATIC THIS EVENING IN\r\nDETERMINING ITS POSITION AND TRACK.  A 0108Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND\r\nNIGHTTIME SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTED A MUCH FARTHER WEST POSITION\r\nTHAN HAD BEEN PREVIOUSLY CARRIED.  HOWEVER...BOTH THE QUIKSCAT PASS\r\nAND A SUBSEQUENT ASCAT PASS WERE AMBIGUOUS AS TO WHETHER A CLOSED\r\nCIRCULATION CENTER EXISTS CURRENTLY.  THE INTENSITY HAS PERHAPS\r\nBEEN MORE READILY ASSESSED AS DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AND BOTH\r\nSCATTEROMETER PASSES SUGGEST WINDS REMAIN BELOW TROPICAL STORM\r\nFORCE.  NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INDICATED.\r\n \r\nASSUMING THAT A CLOSED CENTER EXISTS IN THE CYCLONE...A ROUGH MOTION\r\nVECTOR OF 300/8 IS ANALYZED. ALL MODELS INDICATE A WEAK RIDGE\r\nREMAINING IN PLACE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST\r\nPERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS A WHOLE BRINGS THE CYCLONE CLOSE TO\r\nTHE MEXICAN COAST WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE\r\nJUST SKIRTS THE COAST...WHILE OTHERS DISSIPATE THE SURFACE\r\nCIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE MEXICAN MAINLAND AND ADVECT\r\nA MID-LEVEL VORTEX OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS\r\nPROBLEMATIC... HOWEVER...BECAUSE OF THE LARGE RELOCATION THAT WAS\r\nNEEDED EARLIER. BY DAYS 4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK\r\nTOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE\r\nLOWER-LEVEL FLOW AS A WEAKENING SYSTEM.\r\n\r\nTHE CYCLONE CURRENTLY IS OVER WARM WATERS AND HAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE\r\nBUT IS BEING IMPACTED BY RATHER STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE SHEAR\r\nSHOULD CONTINUE MAKING MORE THAN A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION\r\nUNLIKELY.  THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND\r\nGFDL MODELS...WHICH SPIN THE CYCLONE UP TO A 50 KT TROPICAL STORM...\r\nAND THE HWRF AND LGEM MODELS...WHICH DO NOT INTENSIFY IT.  BY DAYS\r\n4 AND 5...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING OVER THE COOLER WATERS\r\nOFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/0900Z 15.7N 102.2W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     06/1800Z 16.4N 103.0W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W    35 KT\r\n 36HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N 104.4W    40 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/0600Z 19.3N 105.5W    40 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/0600Z 21.0N 108.0W    40 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/0600Z 22.0N 111.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/0600Z 22.5N 114.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":4,"Date":"2008-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"EP052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008\r\n800 AM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n\r\nALTHOUGH IT HAS BEEN PRODUCING VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS...THE\r\nDEPRESSION'S CLOUD PATTERN IS RATHER AMORPHOUS WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE\r\nOF BANDING FEATURES.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT IN\r\nACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES HOWEVER THERE IS A\r\nGREATER THAN USUAL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE INTENSITY.  DYNAMICAL\r\nGUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM SO ONLY\r\nSLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED PREDICTION\r\nIS JUST BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  OF COURSE...THE FUTURE STRENGTH\r\nOF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH IT INTERACTS WITH\r\nLAND.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER\r\nCOOLER WATERS BY DAYS 4-5 SO WEAKENING IS LIKELY BY THAT TIME. \r\n\r\nTHERE IS ALSO GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER POSITION...WHICH IS\r\nESTIMATED TO BE ROUGHLY NEAR THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.  THIS RESULTS\r\nIN AN INITIAL MOTION OF 310/9.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH\r\nAND NORTHEAST OF THE DEPRESSION IS QUITE WEAK AND SOME OF THE TRACK\r\nMODEL GUIDANCE MOVES THE CENTER ASHORE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF\r\nDAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...TAKES\r\nTHE CYCLONE CLOSE TO BUT NOT QUITE OVER THE COASTLINE.  \r\n\r\nGIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CURRENT AND FORECAST LOCATION AND\r\nINTENSITY...NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS\r\nALONG THE COAST AT THIS TIME.\r\n\r\nREGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL...THE PRIMARY THREAT\r\nFROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODS\r\nAND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/1500Z 16.3N 102.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.0N 103.4W    35 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.9N 104.2W    40 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.9N 105.1W    45 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1200Z 19.9N 106.1W    45 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1200Z 21.5N 108.5W    45 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1200Z 22.5N 112.0W    35 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W    30 KT\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":5,"Date":"2008-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"EP052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008\r\n200 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n\r\nTHE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED-\r\nLOOKING AND LACKING IN BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK INTENSITY\r\nESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT AS DOES THE ADVISORY INTENSITY.  STRONG\r\nEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND I HAVE BACKED OFF\r\nFROM THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT\r\nDISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...THE SHEARING ENVIRONMENT...AND THE\r\nLATEST GFDL/HWRF FORECASTS THAT CALL FOR NO SIGNIFICANT\r\nSTRENGTHENING.\r\n\r\nIT HAS BEEN A REAL CHALLENGE TO LOCATE THE CENTER EVEN WITH VISIBLE\r\nIMAGERY.  MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE NOT BEEN MUCH HELP EITHER.  RECENT\r\nVISIBLE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MAY BE SOMEWHAT TO THE\r\nEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES BUT THIS IS NOT YET CERTAIN.  HOWEVER\r\nTHE CENTER POSITION WAS PULLED BACK A LITTLE TO THE EAST ON THIS\r\nADVISORY.  INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 315/7.  THE MID-LEVEL\r\nRIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS QUITE WEAK AT THIS\r\nTIME.  GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN A\r\nLITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL\r\nCYCLONE'S TRACK TO GRADUALLY BEND TO THE LEFT WITH TIME OVER THE\r\nFORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ROUGHLY IN THE\r\nMIDDLE OF THE MODEL TRACKS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE\r\nMEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM GUIDANCE THEREAFTER.\r\n\r\nAS NOTED EARLIER...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY\r\nPRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      06/2100Z 17.0N 102.8W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/0600Z 17.5N 103.9W    30 KT\r\n 24HR VT     07/1800Z 18.4N 104.8W    30 KT\r\n 36HR VT     08/0600Z 19.0N 105.7W    30 KT\r\n 48HR VT     08/1800Z 19.5N 106.5W    30 KT\r\n 72HR VT     09/1800Z 20.5N 109.0W    30 KT\r\n 96HR VT     10/1800Z 21.5N 112.0W    25 KT\r\n120HR VT     11/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER PASCH\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":6,"Date":"2008-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"EP052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008\r\n800 PM PDT SUN JUL 06 2008\r\n \r\nTHE CENTER OF THE BROAD AND POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HAS BEEN\r\nDIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE\r\nDATA SUGGEST THAT IT IS VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO.  SOME OF THE\r\nFORECAST MODELS SHOW AN ABRUPT TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST WITH A\r\nTRACK JUST OFF OR ALONG THE SOUTHWEST MEXICO FOR THE NEXT\r\nCOUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WITH THE CENTER NOW ON THE COAST AND\r\nCONTINUING NORTHWARD FARTHER INLAND...SUCH A TRACK APPEARS\r\nUNLIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE GRADUAL TURN\r\nNORTHWESTWARD TAKING THE DEPRESSION INLAND WHERE RAPID DEGENERATION\r\nINTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL\r\nLIKELY BE DISCONTINUED EARLY MONDAY. \r\n \r\nREGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS\r\nREMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL\r\nFOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF\r\nMEXICO.\r\n \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0300Z 18.1N 102.3W    30 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1200Z 18.6N 102.9W    25 KT\r\n 24HR VT     08/0000Z 19.1N 103.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 36HR VT     08/1200Z 19.7N 104.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 48HR VT     09/0000Z...REMNANT LOW\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER RHOME\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Five-E","Adv":7,"Date":"2008-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"EP052008","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052008\r\n200 AM PDT MON JUL 07 2008\r\n \r\nTHE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION MADE LANDFALL\r\nAROUND 02Z JUST WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.  SSMI IMAGES AT\r\n2325Z AND 0122Z AIDED IN DETERMINING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS\r\nGEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS WERE\r\nSOMEWHAT AMBIGUOUS.  A 0042Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED THAT MAXIMUM\r\nWINDS OF 30 KT WERE PRESENT NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL.\r\n\r\nTHE DEPRESSION IS DISSIPATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN\r\nMEXICO. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY...IF NOT\r\nSOONER. DESPITE LANDFALL AND ANTICIPATED DISSIPATION...THE REMNANTS\r\nOF THE DEPRESSION ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE\r\nPOTENTIAL EXISTS FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE\r\nMOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. \r\n\r\nTHIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E ISSUED BY\r\nTHE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.\r\n  \r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n \r\nINITIAL      07/0900Z 18.7N 102.9W    25 KT\r\n 12HR VT     07/1800Z 19.4N 103.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW\r\n 24HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n \r\n$$\r\nFORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB\r\n \r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2016-07-15 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n900 AM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nThe eastern North Pacific July tropical cyclone outbreak continues.\r\nVisible satellite and overnight ASCAT data indicate that the large\r\nlow pressure area located southwest of the coast of Mexico has\r\nacquired a well-defined circulation and enough convective banding\r\nto classify the system as a tropical cyclone.  This marks the fifth\r\ntropical cyclone formation in the eastern Pacific this month.  The\r\nearlier ASCAT data showed maximum winds of 25 to 30 kt, and this is\r\nthe basis for the initial wind speed of 30 kt. The depression is\r\nforecast to remain over warm water and in a low-shear environment\r\nduring the next few days, but the large size and current lack of\r\ninner-core convection will likely result in only gradual\r\nstrengthening through tonight. After that time, steady strengthening\r\nis forecast, and the cyclone is forecast to become a tropical storm\r\nby early Saturday, and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days.\r\nAfter that time, the system is expected to move over water that has\r\nbeen cooled by the previous couple of hurricanes, and only a little\r\nadditional intensification is predicted. The NHC intensity forecast\r\nis a little lower than the SHIPS guidance, and follows the\r\nmulti-model intensity consensus closely.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion of the depression is a somewhat uncertain 290/7\r\nkt.  A climatological west-northwestward heading is forecast through\r\nthe entire forecast period, to the south of a strong mid- to\r\nupper-level ridge extending westward from northern Mexico.  The\r\ntrack guidance is in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is\r\nnear the middle of the model envelope.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/1500Z 14.0N 106.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0000Z 14.8N 107.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1200Z 15.2N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0000Z 15.6N 111.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1200Z 15.9N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1200Z 16.8N 116.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1200Z 17.8N 119.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  20/1200Z 18.5N 123.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2016-07-15 21:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n300 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nVisible satellite images show that the tropical depression still\r\nlacks inner-core convection, but several curved bands are noted\r\nover the southwestern and northern portions of the large\r\ncirculation.  Dvorak T-numbers were 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB,\r\nand a recent ASCAT overpass revealed peak winds of 25 to 30 kt.\r\nThese data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt for this\r\nadvisory.  The forecast track of the depression keeps it over sea\r\nsurface temperatures above 28C for the next couple of days, and the\r\nupper-level environment is also favorable for strengthening.\r\nIntensification is predicted, but it may be gradual through tonight\r\ndue to the depression's large size and lack of an inner core.\r\nSteady strengthening is likely on Saturday and Sunday, and the\r\nsystem is forecast to become a hurricane in about 48 hours, which is\r\nin good agreement with the SHIPS guidance.  In 3 to 4 days, the\r\nforecast track takes the tropical cyclone over waters that have been\r\ncooled by the past couple of hurricanes.  This should result in a\r\nleveling off of the intensity, followed by gradual weakening near\r\nthe end of the forecast period when the cyclone encounters even\r\ncooler water.\r\n\r\nThe depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. There has\r\nbeen no change to the track forecast reasoning.  The cyclone is\r\nexpected to continue moving west-northwestward for nearly all of\r\nthe forecast period to the southwest of a strong mid- to upper-level\r\nridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  The track\r\nguidance remains in generally good agreement throughout the forecast\r\nperiod.  The NHC track has been nudged northward, primarily\r\ndue to a small northward relocation of the center, but otherwise\r\nthe new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  15/2100Z 14.8N 107.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 12H  16/0600Z 15.3N 108.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  16/1800Z 15.7N 110.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  17/0600Z 16.1N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  17/1800Z 16.5N 113.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 72H  18/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 96H  19/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  20/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":3,"Date":"2016-07-16 03:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016\r\n\r\nThe convective structure of the tropical cyclone improved this\r\nevening with a curved band reaching halfway around its\r\ncenter.  Correspondingly, the subjective TAFB and SAB Dvorak\r\nclassifications each bumped up to a CI number of 2.5, or 35 kt.\r\nThis is also consistent with the earlier scatterometer pass which\r\nshowed a maximum of 30 kt at 17Z, when the convective structure was\r\nnot as organized.  Thus the system is now a tropical storm, both the\r\nfifth one of the eastern North Pacific season as well as the fifth\r\none in a very busy two-week period.\r\n\r\nEstelle is moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt, south\r\nof an east-west oriented subtropical ridge.  The cyclone should be\r\nsteered toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower\r\nforward speed for the next few days.  All of the reliable global\r\nand regional model track guidance are in close agreement and the\r\nNHC official track is nearly the same as that from the previous\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nThe intensity forecast, however, is a bit more uncertain.  In the\r\nshort term, the environment looks generally conducive with moderate\r\nnortheasterly vertical shear, very warm water, and quite moist\r\nconditions.  While the shear drops to very low values in about two\r\ndays, Estelle should start moving over cooler water induced by the\r\nupwelling and mixing from the Blas-Celia-Darby trio of storms ahead\r\nof it.  Thus it is anticipated that the cyclone should steadily\r\nintensify and then it may reach its peak strength at about day\r\nthree.  At the longer lead times, gradual weakening may commence if\r\nthe track stays over the cooler water.  This forecast is based upon\r\nthe consensus of the Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is\r\nslightly higher than the previous advisory through day three and\r\nabout the same at days four and five.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0300Z 15.2N 108.3W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1200Z 15.7N 109.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1200Z 16.3N 112.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0000Z 16.7N 114.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0000Z 17.5N 117.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0000Z 18.1N 120.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  21/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Landsea\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":4,"Date":"2016-07-16 09:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n300 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite imagery this morning indicates a slight increase in\r\norganization since the previous advisory, with a complex of\r\nconvective bands present over the western semicircle and the\r\nsoutheastern quadrant of the cyclone.  However, there is no\r\nconcentration of convection near the center at this time.\r\nSubjective satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from TAFB and 35\r\nkt from SAB.  In addition, there are recent AMSU intensity\r\nestimates near 40 kt.  Thus, the intensity is raised to 40 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 295/9.  Estelle is on the south side of the\r\nsubtropical ridge, which should steer the cyclone generally\r\nwest-northwestward for 72 hours or so.  Beyond that time, the\r\ndynamical models diverge somewhat on the evolution of the ridge.\r\nThe GFS shows a weaker ridge due to a developing trough over the\r\nnortheastern Pacific, with Estelle continuing west-northwestward.\r\nThe ECMWF shows a stronger ridge with Estelle turning more\r\nwestward.  Overall, the center of the guidance envelope has shifted\r\na little to the north through the first 72 hours and a little to\r\nthe south from 72-120 hours.  The new forecast track is just north\r\nof the previous track, lying south of the center of the envelope\r\nthrough 72 hours and lying north of it from 72-120 hours.\r\n\r\nThe dynamical models suggest that Estelle will be in a light wind\r\nshear environment for the next several days, so the intensity\r\nforecast is dependent on the sea surface temperatures.  If Estelle\r\nfollows the forecast track, it should move north of the cold wake\r\nleft by previous tropical cyclones and remain over 27C sea surface\r\ntemperatures through about 72 hours.  Based on this, the intensity\r\nforecast calls for a peak of 85 kt at 72 hours, which is higher\r\nthan the SHIPS model and lower than the Florida State\r\nSuperensemble.  After that time, the sea surface temperatures\r\ndecrease along the forecast track, and Estelle should weaken as a\r\nresult.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/0900Z 15.6N 109.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  16/1800Z 16.0N 110.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  17/0600Z 16.3N 111.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  17/1800Z 16.7N 113.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/0600Z 17.1N 114.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  19/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  20/0600Z 18.5N 121.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  21/0600Z 19.5N 126.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":5,"Date":"2016-07-16 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nConvective banding associated with Estelle continues to increase\r\nand become better organized, with a large band wrapping around the\r\nsouthwestern portion of the circulation, and broken bands of\r\nconvection to the east and southeast of the center. Recent microwave\r\nand early-light visible satellite pictures indicate that the center\r\nof the tropical cyclone is located northeast of the earlier\r\nestimates, which required some relocation of Estelle for this\r\nadvisory.  With the increase in organization, Dvorak T-numbers have\r\nresponded accordingly, and support raising the initial intensity to\r\n45 kt.\r\n\r\nEstelle is forecast to remain in a moist and low wind shear\r\nenvironment during the next several days.  These conditions, along\r\nwith warm water along the forecast track, should allow for\r\nstrengthening, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane in a\r\nday or so.  After that time, the track forecast takes the cyclone\r\njust north of the cold wake left behind by previous hurricanes, and\r\ncontinued intensification is likely.  After 72 hours, the tropical\r\ncyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters which should induce\r\ngradual weakening.  The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the\r\nvarious intensity models, and shows a peak intensity slightly\r\nhigher than the SHIPS/LGEM guidance.\r\n\r\nDue to the relocation of the center, the initial motion estimate is\r\na somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt, which is slightly slower than before.\r\nEstelle is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during\r\nthe next few days to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends\r\nwestward from northern Mexico.  After that time, there is\r\nincreasing spread in the guidance due to differences in the strength\r\nof the ridge.  The GFS depicts a weaker ridge after 72 hours due to\r\na developing trough off the west coast of the United States and\r\ntakes the tropical cyclone west-northwestward to northwestward near\r\nthe end of the forecast period.  The ECMWF is on the southern side\r\nof the guidance envelope as it maintains more ridging and takes\r\nEstelle more westward.  The updated NHC track lies between these\r\nsolutions and is close to the Florida State Superensemble.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/1500Z 15.7N 109.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1200Z 17.2N 114.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1200Z 18.1N 117.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  21/1200Z 19.5N 126.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":6,"Date":"2016-07-16 21:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n300 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle's satellite presentation has changed very little since this\r\nmorning, with a large convective band still wrapping around the\r\nwestern and southwestern portion of the circulation.  Satellite\r\ndata show that there is some northerly shear affecting Estelle,\r\ncausing a north-south tilt between the low- and mid-level\r\ncenters and a lack of convection over the northern part of the\r\nstorm.  Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged since this morning\r\nand the initial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with\r\na recent CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate.\r\n\r\nThe northerly shear is forecast to relax during the next day or so,\r\nwhich should allow for strengthening while the tropical cyclone\r\nremains over warm water during the next few days.  Estelle is\r\nexpected to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and reach peak\r\nintensity in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast is again a\r\nlittle above the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, but in close agreement with\r\nthe Florida State Super Ensemble (FSSE).\r\n\r\nThe low-level center has been difficult to pinpoint today as\r\nseveral low cloud swirls have been rotating around a mean center.\r\nBased on the recent fixes of the mean center, the initial motion\r\nestimate is 290/7 kt.  The tropical cyclone should continue on a\r\nwest-northwestward heading during the next few days to the south of\r\na subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  The\r\nGFS continues to show less ridging than the ECMWF and has a track\r\nthat is along the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile,\r\nthe ECMWF depicts a stronger ridge and a track more westward.\r\nThe NHC track lies between these solutions and is again close\r\nto the FSSE.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  16/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/0600Z 16.2N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  17/1800Z 16.7N 112.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/0600Z 17.2N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  19/1800Z 18.4N 118.9W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  20/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n120H  21/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":7,"Date":"2016-07-17 03:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n900 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016\r\n\r\nThere has not been much change to Estelle's satellite\r\npresentation during the past several hours, with strong convection\r\ncontinuing near the center along with a large curved band in the\r\nsouthern and western semicircles.  Microwave data show the center\r\nis on the northwestern edge of the deep convection: a sign that\r\nthere is still some shear affecting the cyclone.  Satellite\r\nintensity estimates are basically unchanged since 6 hours ago, so\r\nthe initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.\r\n\r\nWeak-to-moderate northwesterly shear is forecast to continue for the\r\nnext couple of days while the cyclone moves over warm waters.\r\nStrengthening seems likely then since the shear isn't prohibitive,\r\nand all guidance indicates this upward trend.  Estelle should begin\r\nto encounter marginally warm waters after day 3, which is likely to\r\ninitiate weakening. The latest forecast is very close to the\r\nprevious one, above the model consensus (which has had a low\r\nbias this season) but close to the Florida State Super Ensemble\r\nsolution.\r\n\r\nMicrowave data has been helpful this evening with the initial\r\nposition and motion, with Estelle continuing to move west-\r\nnorthwestward.  This general motion is expected for the next several\r\ndays while the storm remains beneath a rather persistent ridge over\r\nthe eastern Pacific.  Overall the model guidance is showing a\r\nslightly stronger ridge in the longer term than the last model\r\ncycle, and the official forecast is nudged more westward near the\r\nend of the forecast period.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0000Z 16.9N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0000Z 17.9N 116.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0000Z 18.4N 120.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0000Z 19.0N 124.8W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n120H  22/0000Z 20.3N 129.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":8,"Date":"2016-07-17 09:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n300 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nA large increase in both the areal coverage and depth of the central\r\nconvective cloud mass has occurred since the previous advisory due\r\nto the development of a irregularly shaped CDO. Cloud tops near the\r\nalleged center have been -80C and colder during the past couple of\r\nhours. Recent SSMI/S and AMSU microwave passes indicate that the\r\nlow-level circulation center has become better defined, and has also\r\nmoved closer to the strongest convection and farther into the CDO.\r\nAs a result, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have\r\nincreased to a consensus T3.5/55 kt. However, UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC\r\nobjective Dvorak estimates are only T2.8/41 kt and T3.0/45 kt,\r\nrespectively. Given that the aforementioned microwave images still\r\nindicated some southward tilt to the mid-level center due to modest\r\nnortherly vertical shear, the initial intensity has only been\r\nincreased to 50 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is westward or 280/08 kt. A motion\r\nbetween west and west-northwest is expected for the next 96 hours as\r\nEstelle moves along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer to\r\nits north. After that time, a strong mid-latitude upper-level\r\ntrough/low currently located near 25N/119W is forecast to dig\r\nsouthwestward and erode the ridge, allowing Estelle to turn\r\nnorthwestward into the developing weakness in the subtropical high.\r\nThe new NHC model guidance remains tightly packed, and the official\r\nforecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and\r\nfollows a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and Florida State Superensemble\r\n(FSSE) models.\r\n\r\nModerate northerly to northwesterly shear is forecast to affect\r\nEstelle for the next 36 hours, so only modest intensification is\r\nexpected. After that, however, the vertical shear is forecast to\r\ndecrease to around 5 kt through the end of the period, resulting in\r\nmore substantial strengthening through 72 h while the cyclone\r\nremains over favorable SSTs. By 96 h, gradual weakening is forecast\r\nto ensue as Estelle begins to move over sub-25C ocean temperatures.\r\nThe NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and\r\nremains above the model consensus IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM models,\r\nbut close to the FSSE intensity forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/0900Z 16.2N 111.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  17/1800Z 16.6N 112.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  18/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  18/1800Z 17.6N 115.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  19/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  20/0600Z 18.3N 121.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 96H  21/0600Z 18.9N 125.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n120H  22/0600Z 20.7N 131.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":9,"Date":"2016-07-17 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nA large burst of deep convection developed over the center of\r\nEstelle overnight and continues this morning.  A timely SSMIS\r\nmicrowave overpass was very helpful in examining the structure and\r\ncenter location of the tropical cyclone.  The microwave data\r\nrevealed a well-defined low-level ring located near the northwestern\r\nedge of the primary convective band, but there was no evidence of a\r\nmid-level eye.  The latest Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB\r\nare 3.5 and 4.0, respectively, and UW/CIMSS ADT estimates have\r\nrisen to T3.5/55 kt.  These data support an initial wind speed\r\nof 55 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt. A strong subtropical ridge\r\nto the north of Estelle should keep the tropical cyclone moving on\r\na westward to west-northwestward heading during the next several\r\ndays. Near the end of the forecast period, Estelle will be\r\napproaching the western portion of the ridge, which should allow the\r\ntropical cyclone to gain more latitude.  The guidance is more\r\ntightly clustered today than it was 24 hours ago, so there is\r\nincreased confidence in the track forecast.  The new NHC track is\r\nnear the Florida State Superensemble and an average of the GFS/ECMWF\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\nThere appears to be some north or northwesterly shear still\r\naffecting Estelle, but the shear is not expected to be strong\r\nenough to prevent intensification during the next day or so. After\r\nthat time, the shear is forecast to relax, and Estelle is forecast\r\nto strengthen at a faster rate on Monday.  The track of the tropical\r\ncyclone brings it over cooler waters in 2 to 3 days, which should\r\nstart the weakening process, and it should continue throughout the\r\nremainder of the forecast period.  The updated intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and is closest to the Florida\r\nState Superensemble and the intensity consensus IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/1500Z 16.3N 111.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0000Z 16.6N 112.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1200Z 17.2N 114.6W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0000Z 17.6N 116.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1200Z 17.9N 118.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1200Z 18.2N 122.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n120H  22/1200Z 20.8N 132.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":10,"Date":"2016-07-17 21:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n300 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nRecent satellite data have given mixed signals on the overall\r\nstructure of Estelle.  In visible satellite pictures, a band of\r\nconvection has wrapped around the center, and what looks like a\r\nragged eye has appeared.  However, recent microwave imagery\r\nsuggest that the structure is not as well organized with the\r\nlow-level center displaced to west of the mid-level center,\r\nlikely the result of continued northwesterly shear. Subjective\r\nT-numbers of 4.0 from TAFB and SAB support an intensity of 65 kt,\r\nbut, given the lack of inner-core organization, the initial wind\r\nspeed is set to 60 kt.  Recent ASCAT data revealed a large radius of\r\nmaximum winds, and larger area of tropical-storm-force winds, which\r\nrequired an outward adjustment of the wind radii.\r\n\r\nEstelle continues to move westward to west-northwestward at about\r\n7 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains the same as the\r\nprevious advisory.  The tropical storm is forecast to move\r\nwest-northwestward to the south of a strong subtropical ridge\r\nduring the next several days. Estelle will be nearing the western\r\nportion of the ridge by day 5 and a turn toward the northwest is\r\npredicted near the end of the period.  Although the guidance is\r\nstill in fairly good agreement, most of the models have shifted\r\nnorthward this cycle.  The NHC track has been adjusted accordingly,\r\nbut it lies just south of the multi-model consensus and the latest\r\nGFS and ECMWF tracks.\r\n\r\nThe moderate northwesterly shear over the tropical storm is expected\r\nto weaken during the next 24 hours, which should allow for gradual\r\nintensification.  Estelle is predicted to reach peak intensity in\r\n36-48 hours, and the NHC intensity forecast is near the high end of\r\nthe guidance.  After that time, cooler water and a more stable\r\nairmass should induce weakening, and Estelle is predicted to\r\nbecome a post-tropical cyclone in about 5 days.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  17/2100Z 16.5N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/0600Z 17.0N 113.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  18/1800Z 17.6N 115.4W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  19/0600Z 18.0N 117.2W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 48H  19/1800Z 18.4N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 72H  20/1800Z 19.0N 123.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  21/1800Z 20.0N 128.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n120H  22/1800Z 22.0N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":11,"Date":"2016-07-18 03:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n900 PM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle looks a little less organized than this afternoon, since the\r\neye feature seen on previous microwave imagery has disappeared and\r\nthe tropical cyclone is displaying a more asymmetric pattern.  The\r\ninitial wind speed is held at 60 kt for this advisory, a blend of\r\nthe T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB.  It seems like some\r\nnorthwesterly shear is preventing much intensification at\r\nthis time.  The shear, however, should abate during the next 24\r\nhours, which would allow for gradual strengthening until the storm\r\nreaches cooler water in a couple of days.  Thereafter, a more steady\r\nweakening is likely, and Estelle should become post-tropical in\r\nabout 5 days while it moves over 23 deg C waters.  The models have\r\nbacked off somewhat on the peak intensity, and the official forecast\r\nfollows suit, although the new prediction is higher than the\r\nconsensus for the first few days.\r\n\r\nBest estimate of initial motion is to the west-northwest at about 8\r\nkt.  Estelle should continue to move on that general course for the\r\nnext couple of days, with perhaps a bend toward the west in 3 days\r\ndue to the subtropical ridge to the north temporarily strengthening.\r\nOverall, the global models are showing less ridging between 130-140W\r\nat long range, which would cause Estelle to turn west-northwestward\r\nor even northwestward by the end of the forecast period.\r\nAccordingly, most of the models have again shifted northward this\r\ncycle, and the official forecast is moved in that direction.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0300Z 17.0N 113.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1200Z 17.4N 114.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0000Z 18.0N 116.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1200Z 18.6N 117.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0000Z 19.0N 120.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0000Z 19.6N 124.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0000Z 21.0N 129.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n120H  23/0000Z 23.5N 134.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":12,"Date":"2016-07-18 09:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n300 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has changed little overall since the previous advisory due\r\nto the combined effects of moderate northwesterly wind shear and\r\nintrusions of dry mid-level air. The result has been the inability\r\nof the cyclone to develop a persistent eye feature in microwave\r\nsatellite imagery. The initial intensity has been maintained at 60\r\nkt for this advisory, based on a blend of the T- and CI-numbers from\r\nTAFB/SAB, which is supported by a 0432Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass\r\nthat contained a couple of wind speeds of 50-55 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimates remains a steady 290/08kt. There is no\r\nsignificant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning.\r\nEstelle is expected to move west-northwestward for the next 72-96\r\nhours, followed by a turn toward the northwest by day 5 when the\r\ncyclone moves into a developing break in the subtropical ridge. The\r\nlatest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this\r\ntrack scenario. The new forecast track is essentially just an update\r\nof the previous advisory track through 72 hours, and then is shifted\r\nslightly northward in line with the trend in the guidance.\r\n\r\nEstelle still has about another 36 hours or so to strengthen, during\r\nwhich time the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 5 kt and\r\nSSTs remain above 26 deg C. Thereafter, steady weakening is expected\r\ndue to SSTs decreasing below 25 deg C around 48 h and to 23 deg C by\r\n96 h. The new intensity forecast to the similar to the previous NHC\r\nintensity forecast, and closely follows the consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/0900Z 17.2N 114.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/0600Z 18.3N 117.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  19/1800Z 18.8N 119.0W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  20/0600Z 19.2N 121.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  21/0600Z 20.2N 125.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 96H  22/0600Z 22.0N 130.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n120H  23/0600Z 25.5N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":13,"Date":"2016-07-18 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n900 AM MDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nAlthough the cloud tops are not as cold as they were yesterday, the\r\narea of convection is a little more symmetric around the center\r\nindicating that the northwesterly shear is relaxing.  A couple of\r\nrecent microwave images also show less tilt between the low- and\r\nmid-level centers, however the inner core is still not well\r\norganized. The initial wind speed is maintained at 60 kt, which is\r\na little above the latest Dvorak estimates.  An automated weather\r\nstation on Clarion Island, about 35 n mi north of the center,\r\nrecently reported a sustained wind of 51 kt with a gust to 71 kt.\r\n\r\nThe vertical wind shear over Estelle is forecast to become very\r\nlow later today, and remain light during the next few days.  Since\r\nthe tropical storm is forecast to remain over warm water for\r\nanother 36 hours or so, modest strengthening is still anticipated\r\nand the NHC forecast and most of the guidance still calls for\r\nEstelle to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours.  In\r\n36 to 48 h, the cyclone will be moving over decreasing SSTs\r\nwhich should commence the weakening process.  A faster rate of\r\nweakening should begin by 72 hours, when Estelle moves over SSTs\r\nbelow 24C and into a more stable airmass.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 295/9 kt. Estelle should move\r\nwest-northwestward to the south of the subtropical ridge during the\r\nnext 3 to 4 days.  After that time, a weakness in the ridge caused\r\nby a mid- to upper-low to the northeast of the Hawaiian Island\r\nshould cause the cyclone to turn northwestward by day 5.  The track\r\nguidance is in good agreement, but most of the typically better\r\nperforming models are along the northern side of the guidance\r\nenvelope.  As a result, the NHC track forecast is a little north of\r\nthe multi-model consensus and is near a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and\r\nUKMET models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/1500Z 17.7N 114.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0000Z 18.2N 116.3W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1200Z 18.7N 118.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0000Z 19.1N 120.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1200Z 19.5N 122.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1200Z 20.9N 127.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n120H  23/1200Z 27.5N 136.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":14,"Date":"2016-07-18 21:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nBanding features associated with Estelle have become a little\r\nbetter defined this afternoon, but the tropical storm still lacks\r\nan inner core.  In fact, this afternoon's ASCAT data continues to\r\nshow a large radius of maximum winds.  Satellite classifications\r\nfrom TAFB, SAB, and UW/CIMSS have not changed much during the past\r\n24 hours, so the initial wind speed will remain 60 kt for this\r\nadvisory.\r\n\r\nEstelle's refusal to intensify has likely been the result\r\nof shear and intrusions of dry mid-level air.  Since the shear\r\nappears to have decreased and the tropical storm is predicted to\r\nremain over warm water for another 36-48 h, one would think that\r\nEstelle should be able to strengthen and finally attain hurricane\r\nstatus.  However, this will likely be dependent on the cyclone\r\nconsolidating inner-core convection, which is nearly impossible to\r\nforecast. It may sound like a broken record, but the NHC forecast\r\nonce again calls for Estelle to become a hurricane during the next\r\n12 to 24 hours.  After 36 h, gradually decreasing SSTs and a less\r\nfavorable thermodynamic environment should cause weakening. A faster\r\nrate of reduction in wind speed should occur later in the forecast\r\nperiod when the cyclone moves over SSTs below 24C, and Estelle is\r\npredicted to become post-tropical on day 4.\r\n\r\nRecent fixes indicate that Estelle continues to move west-\r\nnorthwestward.  The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged from\r\nthe previous advisory.  Estelle should continue west-northwestward\r\nfor the next several days, then turn northwestward late in the\r\nforecast period, into a weakness in the subtropical ridge.  The\r\ntrack guidance continues to be tightly clustered and the NHC\r\nforecast lies between the typically better performing global\r\nmodels.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  18/2100Z 17.8N 115.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  19/0600Z 18.3N 117.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  19/1800Z 18.8N 119.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  20/0600Z 19.2N 121.4W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 48H  20/1800Z 19.7N 123.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 72H  21/1800Z 21.2N 129.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  22/1800Z 24.0N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  23/1800Z 28.0N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":15,"Date":"2016-07-19 03:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2016\r\n\r\nThe satellite presentation of Estelle has degraded a bit in the\r\npast few hours with some warming cloud-top temperatures noted near\r\nthe center.  Convective towers have been seemingly just rotating\r\naround the center without any appreciable increase in inner-core\r\nstructure.  Satellite classifications have dropped a bit, so the\r\ninitial wind speed will be lowered to 55 kt for this advisory.\r\n\r\nIt is a little puzzling why Estelle has not intensified but it is\r\nlikely related to the cyclone's large size and radius of maximum\r\nwind, along with any lingering dry mid-level air.  With Estelle\r\nremaining over warm water and experiencing light shear for the next\r\nday or so, it makes sense to think the earlier negative conditions\r\nwould eventually be overcome.  There is a split tonight in the\r\nguidance, however, with the statistical-dynamical aids\r\n(SHIPS/LGEM) basically showing no intensification, while the\r\nregional dynamical models (HWRF/GFDL) are forecasting Estelle to\r\nbecome a hurricane.  Given what has occurred so far, it is prudent\r\nto drop the intensity forecast from the previous one, but not yet\r\ngive up on Estelle becoming a hurricane.  A more consistent\r\nweakening should begin in a couple of days over cool waters, with\r\nremnant low status likely by day 4.\r\n\r\nMicrowave and satellite data indicate that Estelle continues to\r\nmove west-northwestward.  A large ridge over the eastern Pacific has\r\nbeen providing a steady steering current for the cyclone.  Estelle\r\nshould continue moving westward to west-northwestward for the next\r\nseveral days, then turn northwestward late in the forecast period\r\ndue to a weakness in the ridge. The track guidance continues to be\r\ntightly clustered, and the NHC forecast remains very close to the\r\nmodel consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0300Z 18.3N 116.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1200Z 18.7N 117.9W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0000Z 19.1N 120.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1200Z 19.4N 122.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0000Z 19.9N 124.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0000Z 21.6N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0000Z 24.0N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/0000Z 27.5N 139.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":16,"Date":"2016-07-19 09:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has changed little since the previous advisory. Passive\r\nmicrowave satellite data indicate that the cyclone has a robust and\r\nnearly symmetrical low-level wind field, but periodic intrusions of\r\ndry mid-level air have continued to prevent the development of a\r\nclosed eyewall. The initial intensity remains at 55 kt for this\r\nadvisory based on a consensus CI-number of T3.5 from TAFB and SAB.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/09 kt. There remains no change to\r\nforecast reasoning from the past couple of days. Estelle is expected\r\nto move a little faster to the west today, followed by a turn back\r\ntoward the west-northwest on Wednesday as the ridge to the north\r\nbegins to weaken. By Thursday and beyond, a large mid-/upper-level\r\ntrough is forecast to drop southwestward and erode the subtropical\r\nridge, allowing Estelle to turn northwestward and move over much\r\ncooler water as result. The guidance remains in excellent agreement\r\non this track scenario through 72 h, and then it diverges somewhat\r\ndue to differences in the strength and vertical depth of the\r\ncyclone. The new NHC track forecast is a little north of the\r\nconsensus model TVCE and is located along the northern edge of the\r\nguidance closer to the ECMWF model solution.\r\n\r\nEstelle's failure to intensify to a hurricane remains something of\r\nan enigma given the overall favorable ocean, mid-level humidity, and\r\nlow shear conditions that the cyclone has been experiencing. Some\r\nsoutherly mid-level shear along with intrusions of dry mid-level air\r\nhave apparently been disrupting the development of a persistent eye\r\nfeature as noted in microwave imagery even this morning. The center\r\nof Estelle is currently moving over a SST thermal ridge were\r\ntemperatures are at least 0.5C/1F warmer than indicated by the SHIPS\r\nmodel. That extra heat energy could finally allow the cyclone to\r\nreach hurricane status later today or tonight. On Wednesday,\r\nhowever, gradual weakening is forecast to begin as Estelle moves\r\nover cooler waters with SSTs less than 26C, and into a drier and\r\nmore stable air mass. The official intensity forecast remains above\r\nall of the guidance through 36 h, and then closely follows the\r\nconsensus model IVCN after that. Given that Estelle will be over\r\nnearly 22C SSTs by 72 h, the transition to a remnant low could occur\r\nsooner than currently forecast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/0900Z 18.5N 117.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  19/1800Z 18.9N 119.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  20/0600Z 19.3N 121.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  21/0600Z 20.3N 126.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/0600Z 22.1N 131.6W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 96H  23/0600Z 25.0N 136.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/0600Z 28.5N 139.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":17,"Date":"2016-07-19 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has a well-defined low-level structure with an eye-feature\r\nnoted in an early morning GPM microwave overpass.  However, the\r\nconvection surrounding the low-level center has not been\r\nparticularity deep or persistent.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB are 4.0, but objective estimates are lower and until\r\nthe convection is able to maintain itself around the center, I have\r\nelected to maintain the previous intensity of 55 kt.\r\n\r\nEstelle has a little more than 24 hours remaining over warm\r\nwater and in a low vertical wind shear environment.  Most of the\r\nintensity guidance calls for little change in strength, but the NHC\r\nforecast will once again show Estelle reaching hurricane strength\r\ngiven the good low-level structure and seemingly favorable\r\nconditions.  After 24 hours, Estelle will be moving over\r\nprogressively cooler SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic\r\nconditions.  This should lead to steady weakening and degeneration\r\ninto a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.\r\n\r\nThe tropical storm is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estelle is\r\nexpected to move on a west to west-northwestward track to the south\r\nof a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico.  A\r\nmid- to upper-level forecast to drop south-southwestward between\r\n140W and 150W is expected to erode the western portion of the ridge\r\nafter day 3.  As a result, Estelle is predicted to turn\r\nnorthwestward later in the forecast period.  The model guidance\r\ncontinued to be in good agreement, and the new NHC track forecast\r\nis essentially an update of the previous advisory.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/1500Z 18.8N 118.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0000Z 19.2N 120.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1200Z 19.6N 122.7W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0000Z 20.0N 125.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1200Z 20.7N 127.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1200Z 22.9N 132.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 96H  23/1200Z 26.0N 137.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1200Z 29.5N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":18,"Date":"2016-07-19 21:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has changed little in organization since this morning.  The\r\ntropical storm still has several broken bands of convection around\r\nthe circulation but microwave data indicate that there has been no\r\nimprovement in the inner-core structure.  Dvorak T-numbers from\r\nTAFB and SAB have decreased to T3.5, and the initial intensity is\r\nset to 55 kt for this advisory.  Estelle's intensity forecasts have\r\nnot been golden since the tropical cyclone has refused to strengthen\r\nduring the past couple of days.  There still appears to be a short\r\nwindow in which Estelle could strengthen, but given the lack of\r\ninner-core structure, it appears unlikely that significant\r\nintensification will occur.  As a result, the NHC forecast now shows\r\nlittle change in wind speed tonight.  Weakening should begin on\r\nThursday and continue during the remainder of the period as Estelle\r\nmoves over cooler water and into a more stable airmass.  The\r\ntropical cyclone is expected to lose convection and become a remnant\r\nlow within 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThere has been no significant change to the track forecast or\r\nreasoning.  Estelle continues moving west-northwestward to the\r\nsouth of the strong subtropical ridge that has steered all of the\r\nJuly eastern Pacific tropical cyclone westward to west-\r\nnorthwestward.  The western portion of the ridge is finally forecast\r\nto weaken in about 72 hours, which should cause Estelle or its\r\nremnant low to turn northwestward by day 4.  The track guidance is\r\nvery tightly clustered and the NHC track is near an average of the\r\nGFS/ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  19/2100Z 19.0N 119.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  20/0600Z 19.3N 121.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  20/1800Z 19.7N 123.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  21/0600Z 20.1N 126.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  21/1800Z 21.1N 129.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 72H  22/1800Z 23.7N 134.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  23/1800Z 27.5N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  24/1800Z 31.0N 141.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":19,"Date":"2016-07-20 03:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016\r\n\r\nConvection near the center of Estelle has deepened and become more\r\nsymmetric this evening.  Microwave data show some improvement in\r\ninner-core structure as well, although the low- and mid-level\r\ncenters are still somewhat separated.  Subjective Dvorak\r\nclassifications are a little higher than 6 hours ago, so the wind\r\nspeed is raised to 60 kt.\r\n\r\nLittle significant change in strength is forecast overnight since\r\nthe cyclone is quickly approaching cooler waters.  With the recent\r\nupward trends in organization, however, Estelle could sneak up to\r\nhurricane intensity during that time, and this is reflected in the\r\nofficial forecast.  A gradual weakening should begin by late\r\nWednesday since Estelle will be moving over much cooler waters, with\r\nremnant low status likely by late Friday.  The new NHC prediction is\r\nsimilar to the previous one and the intensity consensus, adjusted\r\nslightly higher for the initial wind speed.\r\n\r\nIn contrast to the tricky intensity forecasts for Estelle, the\r\ntrack forecasts have been straightforward.  A persistent subtropical\r\nridge should continue to steer the storm westward to west-\r\nnorthwestward for the next couple of days.  The western portion of\r\nthe ridge is finally forecast to erode in about 72 hours, which\r\nwill likely cause Estelle or its remnants to turn northwestward by\r\nday 4.  Guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, with\r\na westward shift to the latest NHC track forecast to better\r\nreflect the newest model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0300Z 19.1N 121.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1200Z 19.3N 122.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0000Z 19.7N 125.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1200Z 20.3N 127.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0000Z 21.1N 130.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  23/0000Z 23.8N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0000Z 27.5N 139.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":20,"Date":"2016-07-20 09:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016\r\n\r\nOther than a brief warm spot appearing within the small CDO feature\r\naround 0400Z, the overall convective structure of Estelle has\r\nchanged little since the previous advisory. Recent microwave\r\nsatellite data, especially a 0531Z AMSU pass, continue to indicate\r\nthat the cyclone has been unable to completely close off a mid-level\r\neye feature. The initial intensity remains 60 kt based on an average\r\nof subjective and objective intensity estimates, and the lack of a\r\npersistent, well-developed eye feature in microwave data.\r\n\r\nEstelle has made a jog to the west, and the motion estimate is now\r\n270/10 kt. Estelle is expected to continue on a westward track for\r\nthe next 12 h or so, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by\r\nthis afternoon, a motion that is forecast to continue through 48 h.\r\nBy 72 h and beyond, Estelle is expected to turn northwestward and\r\nmove into a trough-induced break in the subtropical ridge around\r\n130-135W longitude. The new NHC guidance is in good agreement on\r\nthis scenario, and the official forecast track lies close to the\r\nprevious advisory track and the consensus model TVCN.\r\n\r\nIt isn't out of the question that Estelle could still briefly reach\r\nhurricane strength this morning. However, any strengthening that\r\nmight occur will be short-lived now that the cyclone is moving over\r\nsub-26C sea-surface temperatures. Although the vertical wind shear\r\nis forecast by both the GFS and ECMWF models to remain quite low,\r\nsharply decreasing SSTs and much drier mid-level air should cause\r\nEstelle to steadily weaken after 12 h. The cyclone is forecast to\r\nbecome a post-tropical low in 48 h when Estelle will be moving over\r\n22C SSTs, and dissipation is expected by 120 h. The new intensity\r\nforecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory, and\r\nclosely follows the intensity consensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/0900Z 19.0N 122.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  20/1800Z 19.4N 124.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  21/0600Z 19.9N 126.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 36H  21/1800Z 20.6N 129.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 48H  22/0600Z 21.6N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  23/0600Z 24.5N 136.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/0600Z 28.1N 140.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":21,"Date":"2016-07-20 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has generally changed little since the previous advisory.\r\nThe convective pattern still consists of a well organized curved\r\nband that covers much of the eastern half of the circulation and\r\nfragmented bands to the west of the center.  The initial wind speed\r\nis held at 60 kt for this advisory, which is an average of the\r\nDvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  Estelle is crossing the\r\n26 deg C isotherm and will be moving over progressively cooler water\r\nduring the next few days.  In addition, the storm will also be\r\nmoving into an atmosphere of drier air and increasing westerly\r\nshear.  Given these expected environmental conditions, steady\r\nweakening is forecast during the period, and Estelle will likely\r\nbecome a post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it is over SSTs\r\naround 22 deg C.\r\n\r\nThe storm is moving westward at about 11 kt on the southwest side\r\nof a large subtropical ridge centered over the southern United\r\nStates.  Estelle is forecast to reach the western periphery of the\r\nridge in a couple of days, which should induce a turn to the\r\nnorthwest.  A northwestward motion is expected to continue until\r\nthe system dissipates in 4 to 5 days.  The models are in good\r\nagreement on this overall scenario, and the new NHC track forecast\r\nis largely an update of the previous one.  This track prediction is\r\nin best agreement with a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/1500Z 19.2N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0000Z 19.5N 125.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1200Z 20.2N 128.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0000Z 21.0N 130.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1200Z 22.1N 133.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  23/1200Z 25.6N 137.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1200Z 29.4N 141.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":22,"Date":"2016-07-20 21:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has changed little in organization throughout the day.\r\nSatellite images show that the center of the storm is located\r\nbeneath a central dense overcast, with some fragmented bands around\r\nthat feature. The initial intensity is again held at 60 kt, which\r\ncould be a little generous based on the latest Dvorak\r\nclassifications.  Estelle is now over cool 25 deg C waters, and it\r\nis headed for even cooler water during the next few days. These\r\nunfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass\r\nand an increase in westerly shear should cause a steady weakening\r\ntrend.  Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in\r\nabout 48 hours, or perhaps sooner, when it moves over SSTs around 22\r\ndeg C.  The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from this morning,\r\nand lies close to the intensity model consensus.\r\n\r\nEstelle is moving westward at about 11 kt, and is being steered by\r\na strong subtropical ridge located over the central United States.\r\nThe storm is expected to turn west-northwestward tonight and then\r\nnorthwestward in a couple of days when it reaches the western\r\nperiphery of the ridge.  A continued northwestward motion is\r\nexpected until the cyclone dissipates in 4 to 5 days.  The new NHC\r\ntrack forecast is not too different from the previous one and lies\r\nnear the multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  20/2100Z 19.4N 124.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  21/0600Z 19.9N 126.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  21/1800Z 20.7N 129.2W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  22/0600Z 21.7N 131.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  22/1800Z 23.0N 134.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 72H  23/1800Z 26.6N 138.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  24/1800Z 30.2N 142.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Cangialosi\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":23,"Date":"2016-07-21 03:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 PM PDT WED JUL 20 2016\r\n\r\nSatellite images show that Estelle continues to display a small\r\ncentral dense overcast, and microwave data indicate the center is on\r\nthe southern side of the cloud mass.  Satellite classifications are\r\na bit lower than earlier, and the initial wind speed is set to 55\r\nkt. A combination of cooler waters, dry and stable air, and\r\nincreasing shear should cause Estelle to gradually weaken over the\r\nnext few days.  Estelle is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone\r\nin about 36 hours when it moves over SSTs around 22 deg C.  The NHC\r\nintensity forecast is basically just an update of the previous\r\nforecast, lying close to the model consensus.\r\n\r\nEstelle is moving westward at about 12 kt, and is being steered by\r\na strong subtropical ridge.  The storm is expected to turn west-\r\nnorthwestward tomorrow and then northwestward in a couple of days\r\nwhen it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.  A continued\r\nnorthwestward motion is expected until the post-tropical cyclone\r\ndissipates in 4 to 5 days. There have been no significant changes to\r\nthe guidance, and the new NHC track forecast is very close to the\r\nprevious one.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0300Z 19.5N 125.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1200Z 19.9N 127.6W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0000Z 20.8N 130.3W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1200Z 22.0N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 48H  23/0000Z 23.5N 135.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0000Z 26.9N 139.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0000Z 30.5N 142.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":24,"Date":"2016-07-21 09:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nThe amount of convection has continued to decrease and is now\r\nconcentrated within a small area near the low-level center. Dvorak\r\nT-numbers have not changed much, and a recent ASCAT pass over the\r\ncyclone shows a few vectors of 50 kt. These winds are confined to\r\nthe northern semicircle and not far from the center. Initial\r\nintensity was then set at 50 kt.  Estelle is forecast to weaken\r\ngradually as it moves over cooler waters during the next few days,\r\nand most likely the cyclone becomes post-tropical in about 36 hours\r\nor sooner. Dissipation is expected in 4 or 5 days.\r\n\r\nEstelle is being steered west-northwest at about 13 kt by a strong\r\nsubtropical ridge, and it is expected to turn northwestward in a\r\ncouple of days when it reaches the western periphery of the ridge.\r\nThere have been no significant changes to the guidance, and the new\r\nNHC track forecast is very close to the previous one and remains\r\nnear the model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/0900Z 19.8N 126.9W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  21/1800Z 20.4N 128.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/0600Z 21.5N 131.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  22/1800Z 22.8N 134.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/0600Z 24.4N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/0600Z 27.5N 140.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/0600Z 30.5N 144.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":25,"Date":"2016-07-21 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 AM PDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle continues to feature a small area of deep convection mainly\r\nto the northwest of the estimated low-level center location.  The\r\ninitial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of the latest\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.  Weakening is forecast since\r\nEstelle will be moving over cooler SSTs and the shear is expected\r\nto increase.  These factors should result in Estelle losing\r\norganized deep convection and becoming post-tropical in 24 to 36\r\nhours.  The remnant low of Estelle should dissipate in 4 or 5 days.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/13, as Estelle is being steered\r\nby a mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-\r\ncentral United States.  Estelle should continue moving around the\r\nperiphery of the ridge and turn northwestward by 48 hours, and this\r\nnorthwestward motion should continue through dissipation.  The new\r\nNHC track forecast is a little left of the previous one through 48\r\nhours and is near the latest TVCN consensus.  A larger westward\r\nadjustment was made at days 3 and 4, trending toward a leftward\r\nshift in the guidance envelope.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/1500Z 20.1N 128.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0000Z 20.8N 130.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1200Z 21.9N 132.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 36H  23/0000Z 23.3N 135.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1200Z 24.8N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1200Z 27.5N 142.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1200Z 30.0N 146.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  26/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":26,"Date":"2016-07-21 21:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  26\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle is gradually weakening, with the convection warming west\r\nof the center during the past few hours. The initial intensity is\r\nset to 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and\r\nSAB.  Further weakening is expected as Estelle will be moving over\r\nSSTs of less than 23C with an increase in shear, which should result\r\nin Estelle losing organized deep convection and becoming post-\r\ntropical in about 24 hours, or even a little sooner.  The remnant\r\nlow of Estelle is expected to dissipate after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/14.  Estelle is being steered by\r\na mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central\r\nUnited States.  Estelle should continue moving around the periphery\r\nof the ridge and turn a bit more poleward by 36 hours, and this\r\nmotion should continue through dissipation.  The new NHC track\r\nforecast is again adjusted to the left of the previous one\r\nfollowing the latest trend in the guidance.  The official forecast\r\nis close to the latest ECMWF and lies a bit north of the new\r\nmulti-model consensus aid TVCN.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  21/2100Z 20.7N 129.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  22/0600Z 21.4N 131.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  22/1800Z 22.5N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/0600Z 23.9N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  23/1800Z 25.4N 139.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  24/1800Z 27.7N 143.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":27,"Date":"2016-07-22 03:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 PM PDT THU JUL 21 2016\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Estelle has decreased during the past\r\nseveral hours, and there is currently no organized convection\r\npresent.  The initial intensity is reduced to 40 kt based on the\r\nDvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB combined with the subsequent\r\ndecay of the convection.  Cold water, a dry air mass, and\r\nincreasing shear should cause continued weakening, with Estelle\r\nlikely to decay to a remnant low sometime on Friday.  The system is\r\nsubsequently forecast to weaken to a trough after 72 hours.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion remains 290/14 kt.  Estelle is being steered by\r\na mid-level ridge centered well to the east over the south-central\r\nUnited States, and it is heading for a break in the ridge caused by\r\na large deep-layer low over the northeastern Pacific.  This\r\ncombination should produce a general west-northwestward to\r\nnorthwestward motion until the system dissipates.  The new forecast\r\ntrack is basically an update of the previous track and lies near\r\nthe various consensus models.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0300Z 21.0N 130.9W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1200Z 21.6N 133.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 24H  23/0000Z 22.8N 135.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1200Z 24.1N 138.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0000Z 25.4N 140.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0000Z 28.0N 145.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Estelle","Adv":28,"Date":"2016-07-22 09:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n200 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has been devoid of deep convection since 0000 UTC. The\r\ncirculation, however, is still vigorous. Based on continuity and a\r\nrecent ASCAT-B pass over the cyclone, the initial intensity has been\r\nadjusted to 35 kt. Since the cyclone is moving over increasingly\r\ncooler waters, additional weakening is forecast, and Estelle will\r\nlikely degenerate into a remnant low today, and probably will\r\ndissipate during the weekend. I would not be surprised if the system\r\ngenerates sporadic bursts of thunderstorms during the next day or\r\nso.\r\n\r\nEstelle is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 14\r\nkt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this general track\r\nsteered by the flow around the subtropical ridge until dissipation.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/0900Z 21.5N 132.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  22/1800Z 22.3N 134.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/0600Z 23.2N 136.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  23/1800Z 24.5N 139.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/0600Z 25.5N 141.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Avila\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Estelle","Adv":29,"Date":"2016-07-22 15:00:00","Key":"EP062016","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPOST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29\r\nNWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016\r\n800 AM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016\r\n\r\nEstelle has been lacking any deep convection for about 15 hours,\r\nand is now designated a post-tropical cyclone.  The initial\r\nintensity is held at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data and the\r\nlatest Dvorak CI estimate from TAFB based on weakening rules.  The\r\ncyclone should gradually spin down over the next couple of days\r\nas it moves over cool waters and dissipate in 48 to 72 hours.\r\n\r\nEstelle is moving toward the west-northwest at 14 kt, and this\r\nmotion should continue until dissipation as the cyclone is steered\r\nby the subtropical ridge centered well to its northeast.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  22/1500Z 21.8N 133.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 12H  23/0000Z 22.6N 135.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  23/1200Z 23.7N 137.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  24/0000Z 24.7N 140.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  24/1200Z 25.8N 142.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brennan\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-06-25 21:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   4\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n400 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017\r\n\r\nDora continues to exhibit well-defined convective spiral bands,\r\nwith a developing CDO.  Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are\r\n3.0 so the intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory.  The\r\ntropical cyclone will be in a low-shear environment with\r\nanticyclonic upper-level flow for several days.  These dynamical\r\nfactors would favor intensification.  Waters beneath Dora, however,\r\nwill begin to cool soon and the system should encounter\r\nsignificantly cooler waters within 48 hours or so.  Therefore the\r\nwindow of opportunity for strengthening is decreasing, especially\r\nsince the cyclone is moving a little faster than before.  The\r\nofficial intensity forecast is close to the ICON consensus and still\r\nshows Dora becoming a hurricane within 24 hours.\r\n\r\nThe latest center fixes yield a faster motion of around 300/12 kt.\r\nA well-established subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should\r\nproduce a continued west-northwestward motion for much of the\r\nforecast period.  By days 4 and 5 a more westward track is likely\r\ndue to the system weakening and becoming a shallow vortex.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is somewhat faster than the previous one,\r\nclose to, or a little south of, the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nAlthough Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the\r\ntropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rains to portions of\r\ncoastal southwestern Mexico during the day or so.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  25/2100Z 15.7N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  26/0600Z 16.6N 104.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  26/1800Z 17.6N 106.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 36H  27/0600Z 18.5N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  28/1800Z 19.8N 114.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 96H  29/1800Z 20.0N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  30/1800Z 19.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-06-26 03:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Dora Discussion Number   5\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n1000 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017\r\n\r\nDora's cloud pattern has continued to quickly improve this evening.\r\nSeveral well-defined spiral bands wrap around the center and the\r\nCDO has become more symmetric and expanded since the previous\r\nadvisory. Recent microwave imagery suggest that an eye feature has\r\nformed within the CDO. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from\r\nTAFB and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS supported an intensity\r\nof 55 kt at 0000 UTC, but with the continued improved structure,\r\nthe initial intensity has been set to 60 kt for this advisory.\r\nDora is forecast to move over warm water and remain within a low\r\nshear environment during the next 12 to 24 hours.  These conditions\r\nshould allow for additional intensification and Dora is likely to\r\nbecome a hurricane by early Monday.  The tropical cyclone is\r\nforecast to reach cooler waters in about a day, which should begin\r\nthe weakening process.  A faster rate of spin down is expected by\r\nlate Tuesday as Dora moves over even colder waters and into a more\r\nstable environment.  The NHC intensity forecast is a little\r\nabove the ICON consensus through 36 hours, and is in best agreement\r\nwith the LGEM guidance later in the period.\r\n\r\nDora is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt. A strong mid-level\r\nridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical\r\ncyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days.  After\r\nthat time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn westward.  The\r\nupdated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and\r\nlies a little south of the TVCN model consensus out of respect for\r\nthe typically reliable ECMWF which is along the southern edge of the\r\nguidance envelope.\r\n\r\nAlthough Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the\r\ntropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of\r\ncoastal southwestern Mexico through Monday.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0300Z 16.4N 104.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1200Z 17.2N 105.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0000Z 18.2N 107.9W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0000Z 19.4N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0000Z 19.8N 115.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 96H  30/0000Z 20.0N 118.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0000Z 19.0N 121.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-06-26 09:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHurricane Dora Discussion Number   6\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n400 AM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017\r\n\r\nDora has continued to intensify overnight with a well-defined eye on\r\nmicrowave data and occasional hints of an eye on conventional\r\nsatellite imagery.  The cloud pattern has also become more symmetric\r\nthan 6 hours ago, with outflow expanding in all quadrants. Satellite\r\nestimates supported an intensity of 65 kt at 0600 UTC, but with the\r\nimproving satellite presentation since that time, the initial wind\r\nspeed is set to 70 kt.  Dora has about 12-24 hours to further\r\nstrengthen before a combination of cooling SSTs and a more\r\ndry and stable environment likely causes the hurricane to start to\r\ndecay.  Interestingly, the models are in poor agreement on the\r\nweakening rate of Dora, with the regional hurricane models showing\r\nthe cyclone losing strength much faster than the statistical aids.\r\nSince the shear is expected to remain low, which would normally\r\ninhibit dry air intrusions, the NHC forecast is a little higher than\r\nthe model consensus, closer to the SHIPS/LGEM solutions and the\r\nprevious NHC forecast.  Given the spread in the guidance, this is a\r\nlow confidence forecast.\r\n\r\nDora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. A strong mid-level\r\nridge to the north of Dora is expected to steer the tropical\r\ncyclone west-northwestward over the next couple of days. Dora\r\nshould turn westward in about 3 days as it loses deep convection and\r\nbecomes a more shallow low. Models have shifted a bit southward\r\nsince the previous advisory, and the official NHC track forecast\r\nfollows suit. The global models also show Dora weakening into a\r\ntrough by day 5, and this is reflected in the dissipation forecast\r\nfor that time.\r\n\r\nAlthough Dora is forecast to remain offshore, the outer bands of the\r\ntropical cyclone could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of\r\ncoastal southwestern Mexico through this evening.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/0900Z 16.7N 105.3W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  26/1800Z 17.4N 106.8W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  27/0600Z 18.2N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 36H  27/1800Z 18.8N 110.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 48H  28/0600Z 19.2N 112.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/0600Z 19.9N 115.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-06-26 15:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHurricane Dora Discussion Number   7\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n900 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017\r\n\r\nDora has continued to rapidly intensify with a 20-nmi-diameter,\r\ncloud-filled eye now evident in visible satellite imagery.  The\r\nupper-level outflow pattern remains quite impressive and continues\r\nto expand in all quadrants.  Satellite intensity estimates are a\r\nconsensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, and T4.7/82 kt from CIMSS\r\nADT, which supports an initial intensity of 75 kt. Dora could be a\r\nlittle stronger, but recent infrared imagery indicates that the\r\ninner-core convection has eroded significantly since the 1200 UTC\r\nfixes, so the initial intensity will remain on the low end of\r\nestimates for this advisory.\r\n\r\nDora has been holding on a steady west-northwestward course or\r\n295/11 kt for the past 12 hours. A strong deep-layer subtropical\r\nridge entrenched to the north of the hurricane is expected to keep\r\nDora moving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next 3\r\ndays or so.  By 72 hours, the cyclone is expected to weaken\r\nsignificantly and become a more vertically shallow system, steered\r\nwestward by the low-level trade wind flow until Dora dissipates by\r\nday 5.  The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of\r\nthe previous advisory track, and lies a little south of the\r\nconsensus track model TVCE out of respect for the more southerly\r\nECMWF solution.\r\n\r\nDora has about another 12 hours or so to strengthen.  However, the\r\nrapid intensification event that the hurricane has undergone for the\r\npast 30 hours has likely ended.  The aforementioned erosion of the\r\ninner-core convection is possibly due to the entrainment of cooler\r\nand more stable air into the western semicircle now that Dora is\r\nbeginning to encroach upon 26-deg C SSTs.  The vertical wind\r\nshear is expected to remain low at less than 5 kt and the favorable\r\nupper-level outflow pattern is forecast to persist for the next few\r\ndays as well.  The only hindering factor will be the decreasing\r\nthermodynamics due to the hurricane moving over sub-26C SSTs within\r\n12-18 hours. Steady weakening should begin by 24 h, but the rate of\r\nthe weakening trend should be lessened due to proximity to warmer\r\nwater just south of the path of Dora and the aforementioned\r\nfavorable dynamic conditions. The NHC official intensity forecast is\r\nsimilar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus\r\nmodel IVCN.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center of Dora is forecast to remain well offshore, the\r\nouter bands of the cyclone could bring brief locally heavy rainfall\r\nto portions of coastal southwestern Mexico into this evening.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/1500Z 17.3N 106.3W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0000Z 17.9N 107.7W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1200Z 18.6N 109.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 36H  28/0000Z 19.1N 111.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND\r\n 48H  28/1200Z 19.5N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1200Z 20.2N 115.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\r\n 96H  30/1200Z 20.4N 118.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-06-26 21:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHurricane Dora Discussion Number   8\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n300 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017\r\n\r\nSince the previous advisory, Dora's cloud pattern has noticeably\r\neroded, with cloud tops having warmed considerably and the earlier\r\nembedded eye feature having devolved into more of a banding eye\r\nstructure. Satellite intensity estimates remain a consensus T4.5/77\r\nkt from TAFB and SAB, and NHC automated Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nhave been steady at 80-82 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity has\r\nbeen increased slightly to 80 kt.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate remains a steady 295/11 kt. The global\r\nand regional models maintain the deep-layer ridge to the north of\r\nDora throughout the forecast period, keeping the hurricane on a\r\nwest-northwestward track for the next 48-72 hours, followed by a\r\nturn toward the west thereafter until dissipation occurs by 120\r\nhours. The latest NHC model guidance is more tightly packed around\r\nthe previous advisory track now that the ECMWF has shifted farther\r\nto the north. As a result, only minor tweaks had to made to the\r\nforecast track, which lies close to the consensus track model TVCE.\r\n\r\nDora has likely peaked in intensity, and is now starting to feel the\r\nnegative effects of cooler water and more stable air just to its\r\nnorth. The hurricane should move over sub-26 C SSTs within the next\r\n6-12 hours, which will induce gradual weakening. However, proximity\r\nto warm, unstable air just to the south of Dora's track, along with\r\nvery favorable shear and outflow patterns, should act to temper the\r\nweakening rate somewhat. Dora is expected to become a tropical storm\r\nby 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low by 72 hours, if not\r\nsooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the intensity\r\nconsensus model IVCN.\r\n\r\nAlthough the center of Dora is forecast to move farther away from\r\nmainland Mexico, the outer bands of the cyclone could bring brief\r\nlocally heavy rainfall to portions of coastal southwestern Mexico\r\ninto this evening.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  26/2100Z 17.8N 107.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  27/0600Z 18.4N 108.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  27/1800Z 19.0N 110.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND\r\n 36H  28/0600Z 19.5N 112.3W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 48H  28/1800Z 19.8N 113.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 72H  29/1800Z 20.3N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  30/1800Z 20.5N 119.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-06-27 03:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHurricane Dora Discussion Number   9\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n900 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017\r\n\r\nDora continues to exhibit a very symmetric cloud pattern with a\r\nwell-defined 25 to 30 n mi wide eye. The convective cloud tops have\r\ngradually warmed today, but subjective Dvorak intensity estimates\r\nfrom TAFB and SAB still support an initial intensity of 80 kt.  The\r\nhurricane will be moving over cooler waters as it crosses the 26\r\ndegree Celsius isotherm very soon.  Since the shear is expected to\r\nremain quite low throughout the forecast period, this may result in\r\na somewhat slower than typical rate of weakening during the next day\r\nor so.  After that time, Dora will be moving over waters colder\r\nthan 24 degrees Celsius which should cause a faster rate of decay.\r\nDora is forecast to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours, and\r\ndegenerate into a remnant low in 2 to 3 days.  The NHC intensity\r\nforecast is initially close to the SHIPS/LGEM guidance but leans\r\ntoward the intensity consensus at 24 h and beyond.\r\n\r\nDora is moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt.  A large deep-layer\r\nridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a\r\nwest-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After\r\nthat time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally\r\nwestward in the low-level flow.  The new NHC track forecast is\r\nessentially an update of the previous advisory and is close to\r\nthe latest multi-model consensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0300Z 18.4N 108.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1200Z 18.9N 109.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0000Z 19.4N 111.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1200Z 19.8N 113.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0000Z 20.2N 114.7W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 72H  30/0000Z 20.7N 117.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0000Z 20.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n120H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-06-27 09:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHurricane Dora Discussion Number  10\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n300 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017\r\n\r\nOver the past several hours, the satellite presentation of Dora has\r\ndegraded with cooling eye temperatures and breaks in the eyewall\r\nconvection noted in the northwestern quadrant.  Dvorak estimates\r\nare dropping and support a wind speed of 70 kt for this advisory.\r\nDora is moving into cooler waters and a drier airmass, which should\r\ncause steady weakening over the next couple of days. Model guidance\r\nhas come into better agreement on Dora becoming a tropical storm\r\nlater today and a tropical depression by Thursday.  The NHC\r\nintensity prediction is on the low side of the guidance since ASCAT\r\nconfirmed Dora is a rather small tropical cyclone, and these types\r\nof systems are known to disappear rather quickly in the cold eastern\r\nPacific waters.  It would not be surprising if Dora dissipated\r\nfaster than shown below.\r\n\r\nDora is moving west-northwestward or 295/10 kt.  A large deep-layer\r\nridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it moving on a\r\nwest-northwestward track during the next 24 to 36 hours.  After\r\nthat time, a weaker and more shallow Dora should turn generally\r\nwestward in the low-level flow before opening up into a trough by\r\nday 4. Guidance has shifted slightly northward during this cycle,\r\nperhaps due to a deeper model representation of Dora at the current\r\ntime. The new NHC track forecast reflects that trend and lies a bit\r\nnorth of the previous one, close to the latest multi-model\r\nconsensus.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/0900Z 18.8N 109.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\r\n 12H  27/1800Z 19.3N 110.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\r\n 24H  28/0600Z 19.9N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH\r\n 36H  28/1800Z 20.4N 114.2W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 48H  29/0600Z 20.8N 116.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Blake\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Dora","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-06-27 15:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nHurricane Dora Discussion Number  11\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n900 AM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017\r\n\r\nDora's satellite presentation continues to degrade.  Although an\r\neye is still evident, the coverage and depth of deep convection has\r\nbeen diminishing.  The current intensity is set at 65 kt based on a\r\nblend of T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB.  The cyclone is\r\ncurrently traversing sub-26 deg C SSTs, and the waters beneath Dora\r\nwill continue to cool for the next couple of days.  The system\r\nshould weaken to a tropical storm later today and degenerate into a\r\nremnant low in 48 hours, or less.  The official intensity forecast\r\nis in close agreement with the model consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nCenter fixes yield a continued west-northwestward motion of 300/11\r\nkt.  A mid-level subtropical ridge to the north of Dora should\r\nmaintain the west-northwestward motion, with some decrease in\r\nforward speed, over the next day or two.  In 48-72 hours, a more\r\nwestward track of the weakening cyclone is anticipated.  The\r\nofficial track forecast is a little north of the previous one, but\r\nsouth of the latest model consensus.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/1500Z 19.3N 110.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0000Z 19.8N 111.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1200Z 20.4N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0000Z 21.0N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 48H  29/1200Z 21.5N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1200Z 21.5N 120.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Pasch\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-06-27 21:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Dora Discussion Number  12\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n300 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017\r\n\r\nThe convection associated with Dora continues to decrease, with the\r\ncenter now exposed to the west of a small area of deep convection.\r\nVarious satellite intensity estimates range from 54-77 kt, while a\r\nrecent ASCAT overpass suggested winds of about 45 kt. The initial\r\nintensity is lowered to 55 kt, and it is possible that this is\r\ngenerous.  Dora should continue to rapidly weaken as it moves over\r\ncolder sea surface temperatures, and the system is expected to\r\nbecome a remnant low in 36 h or less.  The official intensity\r\nforecast is again in close agreement with the model consensus ICON.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion is 290/11.  A mid-level subtropical ridge to the\r\nnorth of Dora should maintain the west-northwestward motion, with\r\nsome decrease in forward speed, over the next 36-48 h.  After that,\r\na westward or south of westward motion is expected.  The official\r\nforecast track is similar to the previous track, but it lies to the\r\nsouth of the model consensus between 24-48 hours.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  27/2100Z 19.6N 111.4W   55 KT  65 MPH\r\n 12H  28/0600Z 20.1N 112.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\r\n 24H  28/1800Z 20.6N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\r\n 36H  29/0600Z 21.2N 116.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  29/1800Z 21.7N 117.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  30/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Beven\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-06-28 03:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Dora Discussion Number  13\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n900 PM MDT Tue Jun 27 2017\r\n\r\nConvection associated with Dora has continued to decrease this\r\nevening and is now separated from the low-level center.\r\nA blend of the various objective and subjective Dvorak intensity\r\nestimates yields an initial intensity of 45 kt, which could be\r\ngenerous.  The tropical cyclone is forecast to continue moving\r\nover decreasing sea surface temperatures which should caused\r\ncontinued weakening, and Dora is forecast to become a remnant low\r\nin 12 to 24 hours.\r\n\r\nDora has turned more westward since the previous advisory, but the\r\nlong-term motion is still west-northwestward or 285/11 kt.  A\r\nwest-northwestward to westward motion to the south of a low- to\r\nmid-level ridge should continue until dissipation occurs in two to\r\nthree days.  The updated NHC track forecast is close to the\r\nprevious advisory and lies between the multi-model consensus\r\nand the more southern ECMWF solution.\r\n\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0300Z 19.7N 112.3W   45 KT  50 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1200Z 20.1N 113.7W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 24H  29/0000Z 20.9N 115.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1200Z 21.5N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0000Z 21.7N 118.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 72H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Brown\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Dora","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-06-28 09:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nTropical Storm Dora Discussion Number  14\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n300 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017\r\n\r\nMicrowave images indicate that Dora stopped producing deep\r\nconvection soon after 0000 UTC, and all cloud tops warmed above -50C\r\nby 0245 UTC.  The circulation now consists of a swirl of low- to\r\nmid-level clouds, and the initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt\r\nbased on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak\r\nestimates.  Deep convection is unlikely to return due to cold sea\r\nsurface temperatures, and Dora is forecast to degenerate to a\r\nremnant low later this morning or this afternoon.\r\n\r\nDora has slowed down with an initial motion estimate of 285/9 kt.\r\nA low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should\r\nmaintain Dora on a similar west-northwestward trajectory for the\r\nnext day or two.  Based on the latest surface fields from the GFS\r\nand ECMWF models, the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by 48\r\nhours.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/0900Z 19.8N 113.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\r\n 12H  28/1800Z 20.4N 114.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/0600Z 21.2N 116.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  29/1800Z 21.6N 117.7W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Berg\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Dora","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-06-28 15:00:00","Key":"EP042017","Contents":"\r\nZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL\r\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\r\n\r\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Dora Discussion Number  15\r\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042017\r\n900 AM MDT Wed Jun 28 2017\r\n\r\nDora has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and\r\nthe cyclone has degenerated into a remnant low composed of mostly\r\nlow-level stratocumulus clouds. Dvorak satellite classifications\r\nsupport an intensity of 30 kt, and that is the intensity used for\r\nthis advisory. Redevelopment of significant convection is not\r\nexpected due to unfavorable SSTs of 22C-23C, and dissipation is\r\nexpected to occur in 36-48 h.\r\n\r\nThe initial motion estimate is 290/09 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge\r\nto the north of the Dora should keep the weakening remnant low\r\nmoving in a general west-northwestward motion for the next couple of\r\ndays. The new NHC forecast track is an extension of the previous\r\nadvisory track and lies close to the consensus model TCVN.\r\n\r\nThis is the last advisory on Dora unless regeneration occurs. For\r\nadditional information on the remnant low please see High Seas\r\nForecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS\r\nheader NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at\r\nhttp://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.\r\n\r\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\r\n\r\nINIT  28/1500Z 20.1N 113.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 12H  29/0000Z 20.7N 115.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 24H  29/1200Z 21.3N 116.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 36H  30/0000Z 21.8N 118.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\r\n 48H  30/1200Z...DISSIPATED\r\n\r\n$$\r\nForecaster Stewart\r\n\r\nNNNN\r\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-06 03:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n1100 PM AST Wed Jul 05 2017\n\nThe low pressure area west of the Cabo Verde Islands has a\nwell-defined circulation based on a combination of surface\nobservations and scatterometer data.  In addition, there has been a\npersistent area of convection west of the center for the past 12 h\nor so.  Based on these, advisories are initiated on the system as a\ntropical depression.  The initial intensity is set to 25 kt based\non the scatterometer data and satellite intensity estimates from\nTAFB and SAB.\n\nExperimental multispectral imagery shows a large area of dry and\ndusty air over the Atlantic near and east of the depression, and it\nappears likely this will entrain into the circulation during the\nnext couple of days.  The large-scale models forecast the system to\ndissipate very quickly due to this entrainment, while in contrast\nthe statistical-dynamical guidance forecasts modest strengthening.\nAnother factor is that the current environment of light to moderate\neasterly shear is expected to become moderate to strong\nsouthwesterly shear at about 48 h.  As a compromise between the\nextremes in the guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little\nchange in strength for 48 h, followed by the system degenerating\nto a remnant low by 72 h.\n\nThe initial motion is 290/12.  The depression is on the south side\nof a strong low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer\nthe cyclone or its remnants west-northwestward for the next 5 days.\nThere should be an increase in forward speed during the next 24\nh, with some decrease in forward speed after 72 h as the system\napproaches a weakness in the ridge.  The forecast track lies close\nto the model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0300Z 12.8N  38.4W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  06/1200Z 13.4N  40.4W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  07/0000Z 14.2N  43.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  07/1200Z 15.2N  47.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  08/0000Z 16.5N  51.1W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 72H  09/0000Z 19.5N  58.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/0000Z 22.0N  63.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/0000Z 24.5N  68.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-06 09:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n500 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern of the tropical cyclone consists mainly of a\ncircularly shaped mass of deep convection that has persisted\novernight.  Since there has been little overall change in the\nsatellite appearance of the system, the current intensity estimate\nremains 25 kt, which is also in agreement with a Dvorak estimate\nfrom SAB.\n\nDry and dusty air related to the Saharan Air Layer, to the east of\nthe tropical cyclone, is beginning to wrap around the northern part\nof the depression's circulation.  Dynamical models indicate that\nthis air mass will be partially entrained into the system over the\nnext couple of days.  This, combined with increasing vertical\nshear, should prevent significant strengthening of the system.\nAlthough the statistical-dynamical guidance, SHIPS and LGEM,\nforecast some modest intensification of the tropical cyclone, these\nmodels have been known to have a high bias at times.  The GFS,\nUKMET, and ECMWF global models all show the system quickly\ndegenerating to a wave.  As a compromise between the global and the\nstatistical-dynamical guidance, the official forecast more or less\nmaintains the cyclone's intensity for a couple of days followed by\nweakening to a remnant low in 72 hours and dissipation after 96\nhours.\n\nThe center is not very easy to locate, but based on continuity with\nearlier data it is believed to be near the eastern edge of the\nconvective mass.  There has apparently been some acceleration and\nthe motion is now estimated to be 290/15 kt.  The flow on the\nsouthern side of a subtropical ridge should continue to steer the\ntropical cyclone, or its remnants, west-northwestward over the next\nfew days.  The official track forecast follows a trajectory very\nsimilar to the previous one, but is somewhat faster.  This is close\nto the latest model consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/0900Z 13.2N  40.0W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  06/1800Z 14.0N  42.5W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  07/0600Z 15.0N  46.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  07/1800Z 16.3N  50.0W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  08/0600Z 17.5N  53.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  09/0600Z 20.5N  59.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/0600Z 23.0N  65.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-06 15:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n1100 AM AST Thu Jul 06 2017\n\nA series of microwave images, an earlier NRL WindSAT scatterometer\noverpass, and recent ASCAT-B surface wind retrievals indicate that\nthe surface circulation of the depression has become less organized.\nThe center remains near the eastern edge of an amorphous blob of\ndeep convection and is a bit farther south than previously thought.\nEnhanced BD-curve infrared imagery also shows that the cloud tops\nhave warmed considerably during the past 6 hours. The initial\nintensity is held at 25 kt for this advisory based on the\ndeteriorating cloud pattern and a blend of the TAFB and SAB\nsatellite intensity estimates.\n\nLarge-scale dry, sinking air associated with a previous Saharan Air\nLayer outbreak continues to be the primary inhibiting factor\naffecting the cyclone.  Global and ensemble guidance show the system\ndegenerating into a remnant low or trough in 3 days or less, due to\nthe aforementioned harsh thermodynamic environment and increasing\nmoderate westerly shear.  The official intensity forecast is\nbasically an update of the previous advisory and favors the\ndynamical models.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or\n285/18 kt.  The circulation center continues to be difficult to\nlocate, but the above-mentioned scatterometer pass was helpful in\nobtaining the position estimate.  The depression is forecast to be\nsteered by the low- to mid-level flow associated with a building\nsubtropical ridge situated to its north over the next several days.\nThe new official forecast is about a half a degree south of the\nprevious one due to the initial position adjustment.  The NHC track\nis close to the latest TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/1500Z 13.2N  42.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  07/0000Z 14.0N  45.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  07/1200Z 15.1N  49.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  08/0000Z 16.2N  52.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 48H  08/1200Z 17.7N  56.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 72H  09/1200Z 20.6N  62.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/1200Z 23.0N  67.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-06 21:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n500 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017\n\nIt's difficult to tell from visible and microwave satellite imagery\nwhether or not the depression still has a closed surface\ncirculation.  In addition, the forward speed is now about 20 kt,\nwhich would make it difficult for a 25-kt depression to maintain\nwesterly winds to the south of the center.  For now, advisories\nwill be maintained until/if there is stronger evidence that the\ncirculation has opened up.\n\nConvective cloud tops have warmed during the past few hours, and\nDvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased.  Therefore,\nthe initial intensity will be held at 25 kt based on continuity.\nMultispectral satellite imagery shows the Saharan Air Layer is\novertaking the depression, and it will be increasingly more\ndifficult for the system to maintain organized deep convection.  It\nhas also become more likely that the cyclone will not strengthen\nbeyond its current intensity.  The global models indicate that\nsouthwesterly to westerly deep-layer shear will increase in about 36\nhours, at which point the NHC official forecast now shows the\ndepression degenerating to a remnant low.  However, it's entirely\npossible that the cyclone could open up into a tropical wave at any\ntime.\n\nBased on the estimated center location, the depression has not\ngained much latitude today, and the initial motion estimate is\n275/20 kt.  The global models remain persistent that the cyclone\nshould turn west-northwestward in about 24 hours as it approaches a\nbreak in the subtropical ridge, and they are generally in very close\nagreement on the future track and forward speed through at least 48\nhours.  The updated NHC track forecast is nudged southward to\naccount for the recent motion, but otherwise it is an update of the\nprevious forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  06/2100Z 13.1N  44.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  07/0600Z 13.8N  47.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  07/1800Z 14.9N  51.5W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  08/0600Z 16.2N  55.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  08/1800Z 17.8N  58.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  09/1800Z 20.9N  64.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-07 03:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n1100 PM AST Thu Jul 06 2017\n\nThe depression continues to be poorly organized this evening.\nRecent scatterometer data indicate that the circulation is losing\ndefinition, with the center in that data well to the southeast of\nthe remaining convection.   A complication, though, is recent\nobservations from NOAA buoy 41041 that suggest the possibility of a\nsecond center closer to the remaining convection and well to the\nnorth of the center seen in the scatterometer data.  The initial\nintensity remains 25 kt based mainly on the scatterometer data.  It\nis possible that the system has already degenerated to an open wave,\nbut for now advisories will be maintained until visible imagery\nbecomes available Friday morning.\n\nThe depression should continue to lose organization due to\nentrainment of dry air and developing southwesterly shear.  The new\nintensity forecast now calls for the system to degenerate to a\nremnant low between 12 and 24 h and become a open wave after 72 h.\nBoth of these events could occur earlier than current forecast.\nIt should be noted that the UKMET model suggests the possibility\nthe system could regenerate near the end of the forecast period.\nHowever, the other large-scale models do not yet support this\nscenario.\n\nA strong low- to mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should\nsteer it westward to west-northwestward until dissipation.  The new\nforecast track lies near the model consensus and is a little to the\nsouth of the previous track.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0300Z 13.4N  46.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  07/1200Z 14.1N  49.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  08/0000Z 15.2N  53.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  08/1200Z 16.6N  56.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  09/0000Z 18.3N  60.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/0000Z 21.0N  66.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-07 09:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n500 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017\n\nThe small, tenacious depression has continued to hold its own early\nthis morning with the low-level center now having moved up into the\ndeep convective cloud mass, with the center being north of the\nprevious advisory positions based on earlier scatterometer and buoy\nwind data. Upper-level outflow is fair in all quadrants, albeit\nelongated from northwest to southeast, and the vertical wind shear\nhas now shifted from northeasterly to light southwesterly at less\nthan 5 kt. The initial intensity is being maintained at 25 kt based\non 0600 UTC satellite classifications of 25 kt from TAFB and SAB,\nbut it wouldn't surprise me if the system isn't a little stronger\ngiven the noticeable improvement in the convective cloud pattern\nsince the time of those fixes.\n\nThe initial motion estimate is 285/19 kt. The new NHC forecast track\nhas been shifted northward of the previous advisory track, but only\ndue to the more northward initial position. Otherwise, there is\nlittle change to the previous forecast reasoning. A strong low- to\nmid-level ridge to the north of the depression should act to steer\nthe small cyclone generally west-northwestward until dissipation\noccurs in about 96 h. The new forecast track lies down the middle\nof the tightly clustered model suite, near the consensus model TVCN.\n\nThe depression is expected to retain that status for another 36 h or\nso while the vertical wind shear remains relatively low at less than\n15 kt. By 36-48 h, westerly vertical wind shear is forecast to\nincrease to around 20 kt, which should induce gradual weakening. The\nsmall cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by 48-72\nh and dissipate by 96 h. There is one important caveat to note and\nthat is the UKMET model, which continues to show less weakening and\neven strengthening in 96 and 120 h when the system is approaching\nthe Bahamas. Although the other global and regional models do not\nshow regeneration at this time, they do however show similar\nimproving upper-level wind conditions east of Florida by 120 h. For\nnow, the official intensity forecast remains similar to the previous\nadvisory and the consensus model IVCN through 48 h, after which the\nforecast is lower than the intensity consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/0900Z 15.0N  48.8W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  07/1800Z 15.8N  51.6W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 24H  08/0600Z 17.1N  55.1W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 36H  08/1800Z 18.6N  58.7W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 48H  09/0600Z 20.1N  61.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/0600Z 22.8N  67.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Four","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-07-07 15:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Four Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n1100 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017\n\nThe depression consists of a possible circulation center embedded\nwithin a very small area of intermittent convection. The areal\ncoverage of the convection has been gradually decreasing since\nyesterday, and the cloud pattern is not showing much organization\nat this time. NHC is keeping an initial intensity of 25 kt, and\nthese winds are only occurring in a few remaining squalls.\n\nAlthough the shear is currently low, the depression is moving into\na relatively low-moisture environment, and this factor in\ncombination with the fast motion of the cyclone will probably\nresult in weakening. The depression is forecast to become a remnant\nlow or degenerate into a open wave tonight.\n\nThe depression or its remnants will continue to move toward the\nwest-northwest at about 18 kt embedded within the strong July\ntrade winds.  This is the solution of the few models which\nmaintain a distinct perturbation in the flow for a few more days.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/1500Z 15.6N  50.9W   25 KT  30 MPH\n 12H  08/0000Z 16.5N  53.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  08/1200Z 17.8N  57.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  09/0000Z 19.2N  60.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  09/1200Z 21.0N  63.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  10/1200Z 23.5N  69.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Remnants Of","Name":"Four","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"AL042017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nRemnants Of Four Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL042017\n500 PM AST Fri Jul 07 2017\n\nSatellite data and surface observations indicate that the depression\nno longer has a closed circulation, and the cyclone has degenerated\ninto a tropical wave. Showers associated with the system have\ncontinued to diminish and remain disorganized.\n\nBased on the lack of organization, this will be the last advisory on\nthis system. The remnants of this cyclone will continue to move\ntoward the west-northwest today, but environmental conditions are\nnot favorable for regeneration.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 16.5N  52.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...REMNANTS\n 12H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-07 21:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n300 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017\n\nThe area of low pressure several hundred miles south of the southern\ntip of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized\nduring the past several hours.  Earlier microwave images and current\nenhanced BD-curve infrared imagery show well-developed deep\nconvective spiral bands over the northeast and southwest quadrants.\nA recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that surface circulation has\nbecome more symmetric and tropical-storm-force winds are located in\nthe convective band to the northeast of the center. Consequently,\nthe system is being classified as a tropical storm at this time. The\ninitial intensity is set at 35 kt based primarily on the\nscatterometer data.  Eugene is expected to remain in an environment\nof low shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and a moist low- to\nmid-level troposphere through 48 hours.  Afterward, the cyclone is\nforecast to traverse decreasing SSTs, which should induce a slow\nweakening through the remainder of the period. The intensity\nforecast is weighed heavily on the IVCN multi-model consensus and\nshows the cyclone reaching hurricane strength before moving over\ncooler waters.\n\nThe initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A\nretrograding mid-tropospheric trough currently centered over\nnorthwestern Mexico has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge,\nwhich will allow Eugene to continue moving northwestward through day\n5.  The global and ensemble models are in good agreement with this\nlarge-scale scenario, although the UKMET is a bit of an outlier on\nthe left side of the guidance suite. The NHC track forecast is near\nthe center of the guidance envelope, and is close to the multi-model\nTVCN and the HFIP corrected consensus HCCA.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  07/2100Z 11.9N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  08/0600Z 12.6N 111.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  08/1800Z 13.8N 113.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/0600Z 15.1N 114.3W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  09/1800Z 16.6N 115.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n120H  12/1800Z 24.4N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Roberts\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-08 03:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n900 PM MDT Fri Jul 07 2017\n\nEugene is gradually becoming better organized this evening, with\ninfrared and microwave satellite imagery showing a large band of\nconvection developing over the southeastern semicircle.  Various\nsatellite intensity estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the\ninitial intensity is increased to 40 kt in best agreement with the\nCIMSS satellite consensus technique.\n\nThe initial motion is 315/8.  There is little change to either the\nforecast philosophy or the forecast track since the previous\nadvisory.  A mid- to upper-level low moving westward from\nnorthwestern Mexico and an upper-level low seen in water vapor\nimagery near 19N 120W have created a weakness in the subtropical\nridge west of the Baja California peninsula.  This feature is\nlikely to persist through 120 h allowing Eugene to move steadily\nnorthwestward into the weakness through the forecast period.  The\nnew forecast track is near the consensus models and the center of\nthe guidance envelope.\n\nEugene is currently in an environment of light shear and warm water\nwith good to excellent outflow in all directions.  The large-scale\nmodels forecast the shear to remain light until the storm moves\nover decreasing sea surface temperatures in about 48 h.  Based on\nthis, the intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening until 48\nh, with the new forecast lying near the upper edge of the intensity\nguidance.  It should be noted that the rapid intensification index\nof the SHIPS model responds to the nearly ideal environment by\nshowing a better than a 50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening\nduring the next 24 h.  So, an alternative forecast scenario is for\nrapid intensification if Eugene develops a well-defined inner core.\nAfter 48 h, Eugene should weaken steadily to rapidly over the cooler\nwater, with the system now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low\nover 21C sea surface temperatures by 120 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0300Z 12.5N 111.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1200Z 13.2N 112.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  09/0000Z 14.5N 113.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 36H  09/1200Z 15.8N 114.9W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 48H  10/0000Z 17.3N 116.1W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  11/0000Z 20.0N 118.5W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 96H  12/0000Z 22.5N 121.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n120H  13/0000Z 25.0N 123.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-08 09:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n300 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017\n\nEugene's convective pattern has continued to improve since the\nprevious advisory, with a pronounced band of cold-topped convection\nnow wrapping more than halfway around the center. An ASCAT-A pass\nat 0432Z indicated peak winds of 37 kt north of the center, but the\nnortheastern quadrant was missed where stronger winds could be\noccurring. The initial intensity is being maintained at 40 kt for\nthis advisory based on consensus T2.5/35 estimates from TAFB and\nSAB, and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T2.7/39 kt.\n\nThe initial motion remains 315/08 kt. There is no significant change\nto previous forecast track or reasoning. Eugene is expected to\ncontinue moving around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer\nridge that extends westward across central and northern Mexico for\nthe next 36-48 hours, and afterwards move into a weakness that is is\nforecast to develop in the ridge well to the west of the Baja\nCalifornia peninsula. The latest NHC model guidance is tightly\npacked about the previous forecast track, so only minor along-track\nspeed changes were required.\n\nThe aforementioned ASCAT pass indicates that the inner-core wind\nfield of Eugene has become better defined and that the radius of\nmaximum winds has also contracted down to about 30 n mi. As\nmentioned in the previous discussion, this now smaller RMW, in\nconjunction with a nearly ideal environment, would typically support\nrapid intensification. However, AMSU microwave and new GOES-16 water\nvapor imagery indicate that a pronounced tongue of dry air has\npenetrated into the southwestern quadrant, temporarily disrupting\nthe development of inner-core convection. But should the dry air mix\nout during the next 12 h or so, then rapid strengthening is still a\ndistinct possibility before Eugene reaches colder water shortly\nafter the 36-h period. Beyond that time, the cyclone will be moving\nover muh colder SSTs ranging from 21-24 deg C, which should induce\nrapid weakening despite the low vertical wind shear conditions that\nwill exist throughout the forecast period. The new intensity\nforecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows\nthe HCCA consensus model.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/0900Z 12.9N 112.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  08/1800Z 13.7N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  09/0600Z 14.9N 114.1W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  09/1800Z 16.4N 115.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  10/0600Z 17.9N 116.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  11/0600Z 20.5N 119.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  12/0600Z 22.9N 121.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  13/0600Z 25.1N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-08 15:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n900 AM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017\n\nEugene's cloud pattern has improved significantly since yesterday,\nand it now consists of a cyclonically-curved convective band\nwrapping around the center. The upper-level outflow continues to be\nvery well established in all quadrants. Based on the average of\nintensity estimates of T3.0 and T3.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB\nand SAB, respectively, and objective numbers from UW-CIMMS, the\nwinds have been increased to 50 kt in this advisory.\n\nEugene has the opportunity to gather some strength and become a\nhurricane during the next 24 hours or so. However, after that time,\na portion of the circulation will begin to reach cooler waters and\ndrier air resulting in gradual weakening.  By the end of the\nforecast period, the cyclone will be over much cooler waters, and\nEugene will probably lose most of its associated convection and\nbecome a remnant low. The intensity forecast is similar to the\nprevious one.\n\nEugene is moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 8 knots\naround the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered\nover the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak\nmid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this\nsteering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track\nduring the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the\nmiddle of the tightly-packed track guidance. No important changes to\nthe previous NHC forecast are necessary.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/1500Z 13.6N 112.8W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 12H  09/0000Z 14.5N 113.6W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 24H  09/1200Z 15.8N 114.7W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 36H  10/0000Z 17.5N 115.9W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  10/1200Z 18.9N 117.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  11/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 96H  12/1200Z 23.8N 121.6W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  13/1200Z 25.5N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-08 21:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n300 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017\n\nThe cloud pattern in visible images looks much better than\nthe infrared presentation. Eugene appears to be developing a\nbanding type eye, and the outflow remains fair. Dvorak estimates are\nnow T3.5 and T4.0, and on this basis, the initial intensity has\nbeen adjusted upward to 60 kt.\n\nEugene has the opportunity to gather more strength and become a\nhurricane tonight. However, beyond 24 hours a portion of the\ncirculation will begin to move over cooler waters resulting in\ngradual weakening.  By the end of the forecast period, the cyclone\nwill be over much cooler waters, and Eugene will probably lose most\nof its associated convection and become a remnant low. The intensity\nforecast brings the winds a little bit higher than the earlier\nforecast, but beyond 24 hours, the forecast is similar to the\nprevious one.\n\nEugene is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 knots,\nsteered by the flow around the periphery of a mid-level ridge\ncentered over the western United States and northern Mexico. A weak\nmid-latitude trough will cause an erosion of the ridge, and this\nsteering pattern will keep Eugene on a general northwest track\nduring the next 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast is basically in the\nmiddle of the tightly-packed track guidance, and very close to the\nmulti-model consensus. No important changes to the previous NHC\nforecast track are necessary.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  08/2100Z 13.7N 113.4W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  09/0600Z 14.7N 114.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 24H  09/1800Z 16.2N 115.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 36H  10/0600Z 17.8N 116.8W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  10/1800Z 19.5N 118.2W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  11/1800Z 22.0N 120.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 96H  12/1800Z 23.8N 122.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n120H  13/1800Z 25.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-09 03:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n900 PM MDT Sat Jul 08 2017\n\nEugene has strengthened rapidly over the past 24 h and has reached\nhurricane strength during the past few hours.  Recent microwave\nimagery indicates that a 25 n mi wide eye has formed, and this\nfeature has also appeared sporadically in visible and infrared\nimagery. The initial intensity is raised to 70 kt based on various\nsatellite intensity estimates in the 65-75 kt range. The hurricane\ncontinues to have good to excellent cirrus outflow in all directions\nas it remains in an environment of light vertical wind shear.\n\nSmoothing through the wobbles of the formative eye, the initial\nmotion is 320/7.  The hurricane is moving toward a weakness in the\nsubtropical ridge to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, and\nthe track forecast guidance is in good agreement that a\nnorthwestward motion should continue through the forecast period,\nwith some increase in forward speed during the first 24 h and some\ndecrease in forward speed after 72 h.  The guidance has changed\nlittle since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is\nsimilar to the previous forecast.\n\nEugene should remain over warm water and in a light shear\nenvironment for about the next 24 h.  Thus, additional strengthening\nis expected, with the main question being will the current rate of\nintensification continue.  The forecast peak intensity is increased\nto 90 kt, which is above the intensity guidance but could be\nconservative if the intensification rate does not decrease.  After\n24 hours, the cyclone should move over colder water, with the sea\nsurface temperature along the forecast track expected to be near\n21C by 96 h.  This should cause Eugene to steadily or rapidly weaken\nafter 24 h, with the system expected to decay to a remnant low by 96\nh.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0300Z 14.4N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  09/1200Z 15.4N 114.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  10/1200Z 18.7N 117.1W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  11/0000Z 20.2N 118.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  12/0000Z 22.5N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 96H  13/0000Z 24.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0000Z 26.0N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-07-09 09:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n300 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017\n\nAlthough it hasn't cleared out entirely, an eye has persisted\nin infrared satellite imagery since the last advisory, and cloud\ntops colder than -70C have at times completely encircled the eye.\nSubjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were T4.5/77 kt and\nT5.0/90 kt, respectively, at 0600 UTC, and an average of these\nnumbers was mirrored by an objective ADT estimate of T4.8/85 kt.\nEugene's rapid intensification phase continues, and the hurricane is\nnow estimated to be category 2 with 85-kt winds.\n\nEugene continues on a northwestward trajectory with an initial\nmotion of 325/7 kt.  Mid-tropospheric ridging is expected to remain\nanchored over the western United States for a few more days, while\na progressive shortwave trough approaches the coast of California.\nThis pattern should keep Eugene on a northwestward path for the\nentire five-day forecast period, with a faster forward speed\nanticipated from 12-36 hours.  The track guidance remains tightly\nclustered, especially through 72 hours, and the NHC official\nforecast has been nudged westward toward the various consensus\nmodels.  By the end of the forecast period, the official forecast\nfavors the weaker, westward-leaning GFS and ECMWF models.\n\nEugene has blown through all prior intensity guidance, so it's a\nlittle difficult to know how long this period of rapid\nintensification will last.  The hurricane is expected to remain in\na low-shear environment for much of the forecast period, and it\nwill continue to traverse waters warmer than 26C for another 24-36\nhours.  Therefore, continued strengthening is likely, and Eugene\ncould attain major hurricane intensity before it reaches colder\nwater.  The new NHC intensity forecast has been bumped upward and\ncontinues to be at the upper bound of the intensity models, closest\nto the SHIPS guidance through 36 hours.  Weakening should be rather\nfast after 36 hours as Eugene moves over quickly decreasing sea\nsurface temperatures, and the global models suggest that the\ncyclone will cease producing deep convection by 96 hours.  At that\npoint in the forecast Eugene is expected to be a remnant low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/0900Z 15.2N 114.1W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  09/1800Z 16.4N 115.1W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 24H  10/0600Z 18.0N 116.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 36H  10/1800Z 19.5N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 48H  11/0600Z 20.9N 119.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 72H  12/0600Z 23.3N 121.4W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 96H  13/0600Z 25.0N 123.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/0600Z 26.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-07-09 15:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n900 AM MDT Sun Jul 09 2017\n\nEugene's eye is becoming more distinct this morning and cold cloud\ntops in the eyewall are wrapping more symmetrically around the\ncenter of the hurricane.  Subjective Dvorak classifications\nfrom SAB and TAFB have increased, suggesting around 90 kt at 12Z.\nIn the last couple of hours, Eugene's convective structure\ncontinues to improve and the objective Advanced Dvorak\nTechnique currently indicates a substantially higher intensity.  A\nblend of these estimates gives 100 kt at advisory time and Eugene\nis now a major hurricane.\n\nHowever, Eugene will be moving from warm to very cool SST, so it is\nlikely that the hurricane will be peaking very soon. Steady to rapid\nweakening should ensue on Monday due to the hurricane ingesting dry\nand stable air into its inner core.  It is anticipated that the\nsystem will lose its deep convection in about three days - if not\nsooner - and no longer be considered a tropical cyclone.  The\nofficial intensity forecast is slightly lower than indicated in the\nprevious advisory, and is based upon a blend of the SHIPS/LGEM\nstatistical models and the COAMPS-TC dynamical guidance.\n\nEugene has sped up some and is now moving toward the\nnorth-northwest at about 9 kt.  The hurricane should continue\nmoving in the same general direction and speed during the next 36\nhours or so, due to the steering influence of a mid-tropospheric\nridge over the southwestern United States.  As Eugene weakens, it\nshould be steered toward the west-northwest at a slower rate of\nspeed by the lower tropospheric tradewinds.  The official track\nforecast is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique\nthrough three days and upon a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models\nthereafter.  This track prediction is very similar to that from the\nprevious advisory, except slightly more to the west at days four\nand five.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/1500Z 16.0N 114.6W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  10/0000Z 17.3N 115.6W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  10/1200Z 18.8N 117.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 36H  11/0000Z 20.3N 118.5W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  11/1200Z 21.6N 119.6W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  12/1200Z 23.6N 121.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  13/1200Z 25.3N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1200Z 26.5N 127.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":9,"Date":"2017-07-09 21:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number   9\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n200 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017\n\nEugene continues to have a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very\ndeep convection. A blend of both objective and subjective Dvorak\nT-numbers from all agencies yield an initial intensity of 100 kt.\n\nThe hurricane has the opportunity to strengthen a little more\nwithin the next 12 hours or so, before the circulation of\nEugene begins to move over cooler waters of 24 degrees Celsius or\nlower. After that time, weakening should begin, and the cyclone\nshould become post-tropical in about 3 days. This forecast follows\nboth statistical models and the consensus.\n\nEugene is moving toward the northwest or 325 degrees at 10 kt. The\ncyclone is embedded within a well established steering flow around\na mid-level ridge over the western United States, and this pattern\nwill keep Eugene on the same general track for the next 3 days.\nOnce the cyclone weakens, it could turn more to the west-northwest\nwith the low-level flow. The NHC forecast follows the consensus\nprimarily during the next 3 days and does not depart much from the\nprevious official forecast.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  09/2100Z 16.7N 115.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 12H  10/0600Z 17.9N 116.4W  105 KT 120 MPH\n 24H  10/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 36H  11/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  11/1800Z 22.0N 120.0W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 72H  12/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 96H  13/1800Z 25.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  14/1800Z 26.5N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Avila\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":10,"Date":"2017-07-10 03:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number  10\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n800 PM PDT Sun Jul 09 2017\n\nAfter steadily intensifying during the past couple of days, the\nstrengthening trend of Eugene appears to have ended.  The\neye of the hurricane has become cloud-filled and ragged, and\nthe convection in the eyewall is not quite as symmetric as it was\nearlier today.  In addition, recent microwave images indicate that\nthe eyewall has eroded on its east side.  The Dvorak CI-numbers\nare 5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB and the latest UW-CIMSS satellite\nconsensus estimate is 92 kt.  Based on these values, the initial\nwind speed of Eugene is lowered to 90 kt.\n\nThe current weakening of Eugene appears to be associated with some\ndry air that has wrapped into the circulation, as seen in total\nprecipitable water images.  The hurricane still has about\nanother 12 hours over warm water and in a low wind shear\nenvironment, so little change in strength is expected overnight.\nEugene is expected to cross the 26 deg C isotherm on Monday,\nand then move over progressively cooler waters later in the week.\nThese unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a drier\nand more stable air mass should cause steady, or even rapid,\nweakening beginning on Monday.  The NHC intensity forecast is above\nmost of the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with\nthe consensus models and brings Eugene below hurricane strength in\n24 to 36 hours.  The cyclone is expected to become a remnant low by\n72 hours when it is forecast to be over water temperatures of around\n20 C, which should cause the convection to dissipate.\n\nEugene is moving northwestward at about 10 kt on the southwestern\nperiphery of a mid-level high pressure system located over the\nsouthwestern United States.  This high is expected to remain in\nplace, which should keep Eugene moving northwestward during the next\nfew days. After that time, a decrease in forward speed and a turn to\nthe west-northwest is predicted when Eugene become a shallow system\nand is steered by the low-level trade wind flow.  The NHC track\nforecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope for the next few\ndays, and then favors the left side of the guidance when Eugene is\npredicted to be a remnant low.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0300Z 17.6N 115.9W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 12H  10/1200Z 18.9N 117.1W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 24H  11/0000Z 20.5N 118.5W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 36H  11/1200Z 21.8N 119.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  12/0000Z 23.0N 120.6W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 72H  13/0000Z 25.0N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0000Z 26.5N 125.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Cangialosi\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":11,"Date":"2017-07-10 09:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number  11\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n200 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017\n\nEugene's structure has changed during the past 6-12 hours, as the\nhurricane no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery.\nMicrowave data and the derived MIMIC product from UW-CIMSS seem to\nsuggest that dry air penetrated into the southern portion of\nEugene's circulation and eroded the eyewall.  In addition, center\nfixes off of ASCAT data indicate that the low-level center is\ndisplaced to the south of the mid-level rotation noted in\ngeostationary satellite imagery, indicative of some unforeseen\nsoutherly shear.  Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity\nestimates have decreased slightly from six hours ago, and a blend of\nthe various numbers supports an initial intensity of 85 kt.\n\nEugene will remain over water warmer than 26C for another 12 hours\nor so, and its intensity will either be steady or decrease slowly\nduring that time.  More pronounced weakening is anticipated after\n12 hours when the circulation moves over much colder water, and\nEugene will likely weaken to a tropical storm by tonight and then\ndegenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night.  The updated NHC\nintensity forecast is fairly close to the ICON intensity consensus\nand tries to maintain as much continuity as possible with the\nprevious forecast.  However, it should be noted that HCCA and the\nFlorida State Superensemble, both of which have performed well with\nEugene, indicate a faster weakening rate than that shown by the\nofficial forecast.\n\nA weakness in the subtropical ridge located off the northern Baja\nCalifornia peninsula coast is causing Eugene to move northwestward\nwith an initial motion of 320/10 kt.  Even as Eugene weakens,\nlow-level troughing near the California coast should maintain a\nnorthwestward or even north-northwestward track but at a slower\nforward speed through most of the forecast period.  The track\nguidance remains in good agreement, and the only notable change in\nthe NHC official forecast is a northeastward shift in the track\nduring the remnant low stage compared to the previous forecast.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west\ncoast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California\nduring the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip\ncurrent conditions.  Please refer to advisories issued by your\nlocal weather office for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/0900Z 18.1N 116.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 12H  10/1800Z 19.3N 117.6W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 24H  11/0600Z 20.7N 118.8W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  11/1800Z 22.1N 119.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 48H  12/0600Z 23.3N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 72H  13/0600Z 25.5N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/0600Z 27.5N 124.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/0600Z 28.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":12,"Date":"2017-07-10 15:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number  12\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n800 AM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017\n\nThe convective structure of Eugene is losing organization and the\nragged eye is no longer apparent in the shortwave infrared imagery.\nHowever, an 0952Z AMSR2 and 1311Z GMI microwave passes still\nindicated a well-defined eye in the 37 and 89 GHz frequencies.\nMoreover, these images suggest about a 20 nm S-N tilt between the\nnear-surface center and the mid-level center apparent in the\ngeostationary imagery.  This is consistent with the 15 kt of\nsoutherly vertical shear diagnosed by CIMSS.\n\nThe intensity is reduced to 75 kt, from a blend of the SAB and TAFB\nsubjective Dvorak estimates and the objective ADT value.  Eugene\nshould move perpendicular across the large SST gradient during the\nnext two days and reach 22C water on Wednesday.  This along with the\ndry air that has been advecting toward the center of the hurricane\nshould cause steady - if not rapid - weakening.  It is anticipated\nthat Eugene will lose deep convection in about two days and become a\nremnant low.  The official intensity forecast is based upon the HCCA\ncorrected consensus technique and is slightly lower than the\nprevious advisory.\n\nEugene is moving toward the northwest at about 9 kt, primarily\nbeing steered by a large mid-level ridge to the northeast of the\nhurricane.  As Eugene loses its deep convection in a couple days,\nit should be advected along in the low-level tradewinds until\ndissipation in about five or six days.  The official track forecast\nis based upon the variable consensus method - TVCN - and is slightly\nnorth of the previous advisory.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west\ncoast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California\nduring the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip\ncurrent conditions.  Please refer to advisories issued by your\nlocal weather office for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/1500Z 18.7N 117.2W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 12H  11/0000Z 20.0N 118.1W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  11/1200Z 21.5N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  12/0000Z 22.9N 120.0W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 48H  12/1200Z 24.1N 120.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/1200Z 26.4N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1200Z 27.9N 123.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Eugene","Adv":13,"Date":"2017-07-10 21:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Eugene Discussion Number  13\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n200 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017\n\nEugene's convective presentation has continued to wane significantly\nduring the past six hours.  Cloud tops near the center have warmed\nto barely -65C and the overall cloud pattern has become elongated\nnorthwest-to-southeast.  The initial intensity has been lowered to\n65 kt based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB\nand SAB.\n\nThere are no significant changes to the previous track and intensity\nforecasts or reasonings. Eugene is expected to continue to move in a\ngeneral northwestward direction throughout the forecast period, and\nsteadily or rapidly weaken while moving over much colder waters\ncharacterized by 25C-22C SSTs.  The track and intensity forecasts\nclosely follow the TVCN and IVCN consensus models, respectively.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west\ncoast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during\nthe next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current\nconditions.  Please refer to advisories issued by your local weather\noffice for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  10/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 12H  11/0600Z 20.6N 118.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  11/1800Z 22.1N 119.7W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  12/0600Z 23.4N 120.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL\n 48H  12/1800Z 24.6N 121.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  13/1800Z 26.7N 123.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  14/1800Z 28.3N 124.4W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  15/1800Z 29.5N 127.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":14,"Date":"2017-07-11 03:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  14\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n800 PM PDT Mon Jul 10 2017\n\nEugene continues to weaken as it traverses SSTs below 26 deg C.\nThe central deep convection is gradually becoming eroded, and the\ncurrent intensity is estimated at 60 kt which is the mean of Dvorak\nCI numbers from SAB and TAFB.  Although the storm continues to\nexhibit a fairly symmetrical upper-level outflow structure, it will\nbe moving over increasingly cooler waters for the next few days.\nContinued weakening is likely, and the official intensity forecast\nis very close to the latest model consensus. Eugene should\ndegenerate into a remnant low by Wednesday morning.\n\nThe motion remains near 325/9.  There are no important changes to\nthe track forecast reasoning.  A mid-level anticyclone to the\nnortheast of Eugene should maintain a generally northwestward\nheading for the next few days, and until dissipation.  A slight\nleftward bend is likely in a couple of days while the weakening\ncyclone becomes steered more by the low-level flow.  The official\nforecast track is close to the latest corrected consensus\nprediction.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will propagate northward along the west\ncoast of the Baja California peninsula to southern California during\nthe next few days, causing high surf and dangerous rip current\nconditions.  Please refer to statements issued by your local weather\noffice for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0300Z 20.2N 118.2W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 12H  11/1200Z 21.3N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  12/0000Z 22.6N 120.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 36H  12/1200Z 23.8N 121.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/0000Z 24.9N 122.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0000Z 26.8N 124.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0000Z 28.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Pasch\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":15,"Date":"2017-07-11 09:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  15\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n200 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017\n\nThe areal coverage of cold cloud tops continues to decrease, and\nmicrowave images indicate that all the remaining deep convection is\nrestricted to the northwestern quadrant.  Based on a blend of the\nlatest subjective and objective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers,\nEugene is estimated to have maximum winds of 55 kt.  With sea\nsurface temperatures decreasing below 22 deg C ahead of Eugene, the\ncyclone's winds and convection will continue to wane, and it will\nlikely degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours.  Based on the\nglobal models, the remnant low should dissipate by day 5.\n\nEugene remains on a steady northwestward heading of 325/8 kt.\nLittle change in this trajectory is expected during the next\nseveral days as Eugene moves toward a break in the subtropical\nridge located off the northern Baja California coast.  Some\nreduction in forward speed is likely by day 3 and 4 when the\nremnant low is steered by weaker low-level winds.  The updated NHC\ntrack forecast is very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus and\nis not too different from the previous forecast.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward\nalong the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern\nCalifornia during the next few days, causing high surf and dangerous\nrip current conditions.  Please refer to statements issued by your\nlocal weather office for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/0900Z 20.6N 118.7W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  11/1800Z 21.6N 119.5W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 24H  12/0600Z 22.8N 120.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 36H  12/1800Z 24.0N 121.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/0600Z 25.2N 122.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/0600Z 27.1N 124.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/0600Z 28.5N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":16,"Date":"2017-07-11 15:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  16\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n800 AM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017\n\nDeep convection associated with Eugene is diminishing in depth and\nareal coverage.  Consequently, subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB\nand TAFB as well as objective ADT values from CIMSS continue to\ndrop.  The initial intensity is set at 45 kt, though this is with a\nsubstantial amount of uncertainty.\n\nA 0949Z AMSR2 microwave image helped to locate the center of Eugene\nthis morning. The system is moving toward the northwest at about 9\nkt.  Eugene is expected to continue moving in the same direction\nand speed for the next couple of days, as it is rounding the\nsouthwestern portion of a mid-level subtropical ridge.  The\nofficial track forecast is nearly unchanged and continues to be\nbased upon the multi-model consensus technique TVCN.\n\nEugene has been weakening due to ingestion of cool and dry air as\nit moves into the stratocumulus-infested waters west of Baja\nCalifornia.  This will continue due to the northwestward track over\neven cooler SSTs during the next two days.  It is expected that\nEugene will lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in\n24-36 hr and dissipate completely in about 5 days.  The official\nintensity forecast is slightly lower than that previously and is\nbased upon the multi-model consensus technique IVCN.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward\nalong the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern\nCalifornia during the next couple days, causing high surf and\ndangerous rip current conditions.  Please refer to statements issued\nby your local weather office for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/1500Z 21.3N 119.6W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  12/0000Z 22.3N 120.4W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  12/1200Z 23.4N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 36H  13/0000Z 24.6N 122.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1200Z 25.7N 123.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1200Z 27.6N 124.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/1200Z 28.8N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":17,"Date":"2017-07-11 21:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  17\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n200 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017\n\nThe deep convection associated with Eugene is rapidly waning.\nWhile the Dvorak assessments from ADT, SAB, and TAFB suggest a\nlow-end tropical storm at this time, an AMSU pass back at 1417Z\ngenerated intensity estimates of around 60 kt from CIRA and CIMSS.\nHowever, it is unlikely that these maximum winds are valid because\nof the increased stability over the stratocumulus-blanketed waters.\nA blend of the Dvorak and AMSU estimates gives 45 kt for the\ninitial intensity.\n\nThe diminished deep convection and visible imagery allow for a more\naccurate determination of Eugene's initial position and motion,\nwhich is northwestward at 8 kt.  The tropical cyclone is expected to\ncontinue moving in the same direction and speed for the next couple\nof days, as it is rounding the southwestern portion of a mid-level\nsubtropical ridge. The official track forecast is nearly unchanged\nand is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique.\n\nEugene should continue its weakening due to ingestion of stable air\nas it moves over the cool waters west of Baja California. It is\nexpected that the cyclone will lose its deep convection and become\na remnant low in about a day - or sooner - and dissipate completely\nin four to five days.  The official intensity forecast is the same\nas that previously and is based upon the IVCN multi-model consensus\ntechnique.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward\nalong the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern\nCalifornia during the next couple days, causing high surf and\ndangerous rip current conditions.  Please refer to statements\nissued by your local weather office for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  11/2100Z 21.7N 120.0W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  12/0600Z 22.5N 120.8W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  12/1800Z 23.6N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/0600Z 24.7N 122.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  13/1800Z 25.8N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  14/1800Z 27.6N 125.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  15/1800Z 28.5N 126.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":18,"Date":"2017-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  18\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n800 PM PDT Tue Jul 11 2017\n\nAlthough deep convection continues to dwindle overall, a narrow\nband of deep convection has continued to persist in the northern\nsemicircle and near the center. As a result, Eugene is being\nmaintained as a 40-kt sheared tropical cyclone for this advisory\nbased on recent UW-CIMSS ADT estimates of T2.7/39 kt and the\nrobust low-level circulation seen in visible satellite imagery.\n\nThe initial motion remains northwestward or 320/08 kt. A deep-layer\nridge to the northeast of Eugene is expected to keep the weakening\ncyclone on a northwestward track throughout the forecast period,\nwhich will be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed\nafter 24 hours. The NHC track guidance has shifted to the west, thus\nthe official forecast has also been shifted to the left of the\nprevious advisory, similar to a blend of the consensus models TVCN\nand HCCA.\n\nEugene will continue to weaken throughout the next 4 days as a\nresult of the ingestion of drier and more stable air, and from\nmoving over colder SSTs of near 20 deg C by 48 hours. The NHC\nintensity forecast follows the trend of the previous advisory, which\nhas Eugene degenerating to a remnant low pressure system by 18-24\nhours, and dissipating by 120 hours, if not sooner.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will continue to propagate northward\nalong the west coast of the Baja California peninsula to southern\nCalifornia during the next couple of days, causing dangerous surf\nand rip current conditions.  Please refer to statements issued by\nyour local weather office for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 22.3N 120.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 23.1N 121.3W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/1200Z 25.3N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/0000Z 26.2N 124.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/0000Z 27.5N 126.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0000Z 28.0N 128.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n120H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Stewart\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":1,"Date":"2017-07-12 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   1\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n900 PM MDT Tue Jul 11 2017\n\nConvection associated with the low pressure area located well south\nof the Baja California peninsula has become better organized this\nafternoon and evening, with recent microwave images showing a\nwell-defined curved band wrapping around the western portion of the\ncirculation.  Based on the improvement in organization, the system\nis being classified as a tropical depression. The initial wind speed\nis set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates\nof 25 and 35 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively.\n\nThe depression is currently in an environment of light northeasterly\nshear and over warm sea surface temperatures. Although the global\nmodels do not show significant deepening, the statistical guidance\n(SHIPS and LGEM) and regional hurricane models (HWRF and CTCX)\npredict steady strengthening, with the regional models making the\nsystem a major hurricane by the end of the forecast period.  Given\nthe low shear and warm waters ahead, the NHC forecast calls for\nsteady intensification and lies close to HCCA consensus model.\n\nThe depression is moving westward at about 10 kt.  A large mid- to\nupper-level ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast\nto build westward over the next several days.  This should keep the\ncyclone on a general westward heading throughout the five-day\nforecast period.  The models are in good agreement on the steering\npattern and the NHC track forecast is near the middle of the\nguidance envelope.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0300Z 12.2N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  12/1200Z 12.2N 111.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/0000Z 12.2N 113.2W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  13/1200Z 12.3N 115.2W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  14/0000Z 12.4N 117.2W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/0000Z 12.5N 121.7W   75 KT  85 MPH\n 96H  16/0000Z 12.5N 127.0W   85 KT 100 MPH\n120H  17/0000Z 12.5N 132.8W   85 KT 100 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Eugene","Adv":19,"Date":"2017-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Eugene Discussion Number  19\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n200 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017\n\nEugene is producing minimal deep convection, with only a small\npatch of cloud tops colder than -50 deg C north of the center.  An\nASCAT pass at 0453 UTC indicated that the cyclone was still\nproducing 35-40 kt winds at the time.  Since Eugene is now over sea\nsurface temperatures of 22-23 deg C and the circulation continues\nto spin down, the advisory intensity is set at 35 kt.  Significant\ndeep convection is unlikely to return given the cold ocean, and\nEugene is therefore expected to degenerate into a remnant low later\ntoday.  Maximum winds will also continue to decrease over the next\nfew days, and the circulation should dissipate by day 4.\n\nEugene is maintaining a northwestward motion of 320/8 kt, steered by\nlow- to mid-level high pressure located over the Baja California\npeninsula.  This ridging is expected to strengthen and shift\nwestward over the next few days, which should cause the remnant\ncirculation of Eugene to bend a little more to the west before\ndissipation.  The updated NHC track forecast is very close to the\nTVCN multi-model consensus and not too different from the previous\nforecast.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of\nthe Baja California peninsula and southern California during the\nnext day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current conditions.\nPlease refer to statements issued by your local weather office for\nadditional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 22.9N 121.1W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 23.8N 121.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  13/0600Z 24.8N 123.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  13/1800Z 25.8N 124.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/0600Z 26.7N 125.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/0600Z 28.0N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/0600Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Six-E","Adv":2,"Date":"2017-07-12 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number   2\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n300 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017\n\nThe structure of the depression has changed little during the past\nfew hours, with the low-level center still located on the eastern\nedge of a central cluster of deep convection.  Dvorak intensity\nestimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5/35 kt and T1.5/25 kt, while\nthe objective ADT estimate is T2.0/30 kt.  The initial intensity\ntherefore remains 30 kt.\n\nLow- to mid-level high pressure is currently located north of the\ndepression near the Baja California peninsula, and it is steering\nthe cyclone westward at 270/10 kt.  This ridging is expected to\nstrengthen and build westward through the forecast period,\nimparting a continued westward or even south-of-due-west motion on\nthe cyclone through day 5.  In fact, with the exception of the\nUKMET, the other track models have shifted notably southward from\nthe previous NHC forecast for the first 72 hours.  The updated NHC\ntrack forecast has also been shifted southward, close to the TVCN\nmulti-model consensus, but it is not as far south as the ECMWF,\nHWRF, and HCCA models.  Therefore, it wouldn't be surprising to see\nadditional southward adjustments in future forecast packages.\n\nVarious shear analyses place 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over\nthe depression, and that shear is likely to continue for another\n24-36 hours.  In the meantime, the depression is moving over very\nwarm waters of 28-29 deg C, and the cyclone's forecast low latitude\nshould keep it over warm water for the duration of the forecast\nperiod.  The global models, particularly the GFS and ECMWF, seem to\nsuggest that significant deepening won't occur for another 24-48\nhours (possibly due to the ongoing shear).  Gradual strengthening\nis therefore forecast initially, and the NHC forecast is close to a\nblend of the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first 48 hours.  After\n48 hours, many of the models show more significant intensification\ndue to lower shear, and during that period the NHC forecast is\nclose to HCCA and the ICON intensity consensus.  This new forecast\nis a little higher than the previous one on days 3, 4, and 5.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/0900Z 12.1N 110.7W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  12/1800Z 12.1N 112.0W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/0600Z 12.1N 113.9W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  13/1800Z 12.0N 115.8W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  14/0600Z 11.9N 117.8W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/0600Z 11.8N 122.4W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 96H  16/0600Z 12.2N 127.3W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  17/0600Z 12.7N 132.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Depression","Name":"Eugene","Adv":20,"Date":"2017-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Depression Eugene Discussion Number  20\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n800 AM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017\n\nEugene is not quite ready to quit.  Deep convection continues in the\nnortheastern quadrant of the system, though this is not very deep\nnor extensive.  Given the spin-down likely occuring since the\novernight ASCAT scatterometer pass as well as the Dvorak\nclassifications from SAB and TAFB, the intensity is assessed at 30\nkt, downgrading Eugene to a tropical depression.  The system should\nlose deep convection shortly as it moves over 21C SSTs and become a\nremnant low by tonight.  By day 3 or 4, Eugene's circulation is\nlikely to open up into a trough.  The intensity forecast is\nunchanged from the previous advisory.\n\nThe tropical depression is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt,\nsteered around the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical\nridge over northwestern Mexico.  This motion should continue for the\nnext couple of days, then slow by day 3 before dissipation.  The\ntrack forecast is slightly east of the previous advisory at days 2\nand 3 and is based upon the TVCN multi-model consensus.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene will continue to affect the west coast of\nnorthern Baja California peninsula and southern California during\nthe next day or two, causing dangerous surf and rip current\nconditions. Please refer to statements issued by your local weather\noffice for additional information.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 23.6N 121.8W   30 KT  35 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 24.4N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  13/1200Z 25.5N 123.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  14/0000Z 26.4N 124.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/1200Z 27.3N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/1200Z 28.5N 127.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":3,"Date":"2017-07-12 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number   3\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n900 AM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017\n\nConvection associated with Tropical Depression Six-E has become\nbetter organized during the past several hours.  While the cyclone\nis still being affected by northeasterly vertical wind shear, an\narea of convection has formed over the low-level center and outer\nconvective bands are present in the southwestern semicircle.  An\naverage of various satellite intensity estimates is 35 kt, and based\non this the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Fernanda.\n\nThe initial motion is 270/9.  Deep-layer ridging north of the\ncyclone is steering it generally westward, and the ridge is expected\nto strengthen and build westward during the next 4-5 days.  Based\non this evolution, Fernanda should move generally westward or south\nof westward through at least 72 hours, with a north of west motion\nexpected thereafter.  There has been little change in the guidance\nsince the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is similar\nto, but slightly south of, the previous forecast.\n\nThe large-scale models suggest that the current shear should\nsubside over the next 24 h or so and then remain light through the\nremainder of the forecast period.  That, combined with 28-29C sea\nsurface temperatures along the forecast track, should allow the\nsystem to intensify.  As seen in the previous advisory, the new\nintensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening during the first\n24-36 h, followed by a faster rate of development from 36-72 h.\nThe new forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is in best\nagreement with the intensity consensus.  It should be noted that\nwhile the environment is not currently conducive for rapid\nintensification, it may become more favorable once the shear\ndecreases.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/1500Z 12.0N 111.5W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  13/0000Z 12.0N 112.9W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 24H  13/1200Z 12.0N 114.8W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 36H  14/0000Z 11.9N 116.6W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 48H  14/1200Z 11.7N 118.7W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 72H  15/1200Z 11.5N 123.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 96H  16/1200Z 12.0N 128.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n120H  17/1200Z 13.0N 133.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Post-Tropical Cyclone","Name":"Eugene","Adv":21,"Date":"2017-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP052017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nPost-Tropical Cyclone Eugene Discussion Number  21\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052017\n200 PM PDT Wed Jul 12 2017\n\nEugene has succumbed to the effects of the cool, dry airmass in\nwhich it has become embedded.  Organized deep convection dissipated\nearlier today and is unlikely to resume due to the system moving\nover progressively colder waters west of Baja California.  Thus\nEugene has become a post-tropical cyclone.  An 1814Z ASCAT\nscatterometer pass measured maximum winds of about 30 kt.  These\nwinds will gradually subside and by day 3 or 4 Eugene's circulation\nis likely to open up into a trough.\n\nEugene's remnant low is moving toward the northwest at 9 kt, steered\naround the periphery of a low to mid-level subtropical ridge over\nnorthwestern Mexico.  This motion should continue for the next\ncouple of days, then slow with a turn toward the west-northwest by\nday 3. The track forecast is slightly west of the previous advisory\nand is based upon the HCCA corrected consensus technique.\n\nSwells generated by Eugene affecting portions of the west\ncoast of northern Baja California peninsula and southern California\nwill be diminishing on Thursday.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 24.1N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 12H  13/0600Z 24.9N 123.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 24H  13/1800Z 25.9N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 36H  14/0600Z 26.8N 125.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 48H  14/1800Z 27.7N 126.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 72H  15/1800Z 28.5N 128.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW\n 96H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED\n\n$$\nForecaster Landsea\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":4,"Date":"2017-07-12 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number   4\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n300 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017\n\nFernanda has changed little in organization since the last\nadvisory, as the center continues to be near the northeastern edge\nof the central convection and outer bands persist in the\nsouthwestern semicircle.  Recent scatterometer data indicated\nmaximum winds near 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity\nbased on the scatterometer and various satellite intensity\nestimates.  The scatterometer data also showed the Fernanda is\ncurrently a small cyclone, with tropical-storm-force winds\nextending no more than 20 n mi from the center.\n\nThe initial motion is now 265/8. Deep-layer ridging north of the\ncyclone is steering it a little south of due west, and the ridge is\nexpected to strengthen and build westward during the next several\ndays.  Thus, a westward or south of westward motion is likely for\nthe first 72 h.  After that, Fernanda should approach a weakness in\nthe ridge caused by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central\nPacific, and in response it is expected to turn west-northwestward\nby 120 h.  The new forecast track is again similar to, but a little\nsouth of the previous track.  It lies a little north of the\nconsensus models through 72 h and south of them at 96-120 h.\n\nThe cyclone is still feeling the effects of 10-15 kt of vertical\nwind shear at this time.  The large-scale models continue to\nforecast the shear to subside over the next 24 h or so and then\nremain light through the remainder of the forecast period.  That,\ncombined with 28-29C sea surface temperatures along the first 96 h\nof the forecast track, should allow the system to intensify.  After\n96 h, the expected more northward motion would bring Fernanda over\ndecreasing seas surface temperatures, which would likely stop\nintensification.  The new forecast is again similar to the previous\nforecast and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus.\nThere remains a possibility that rapid intensification could occur\nafter the shear subsides.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  12/2100Z 11.8N 112.2W   35 KT  40 MPH\n 12H  13/0600Z 11.8N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 24H  13/1800Z 11.7N 115.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 36H  14/0600Z 11.6N 117.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 48H  14/1800Z 11.5N 119.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 72H  15/1800Z 11.5N 124.0W   90 KT 105 MPH\n 96H  16/1800Z 12.0N 128.5W   95 KT 110 MPH\n120H  17/1800Z 13.0N 133.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":5,"Date":"2017-07-13 03:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number   5\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n900 PM MDT Wed Jul 12 2017\n\nRecent microwave images show that the center of Fernanda remains\nnear the northeastern edge of the deep convection due to light-to-\nmoderate northeasterly shear. However, the center has become a\nlittle more embedded within the cold cloud tops this evening.  As a\nresult of the slight improvement in organization, the initial wind\nspeed has been increased to 40 kt. The global models show the shear\nover Fernanda decreasing within the next 12 to 24 h and becoming\nquite low while the cyclone moves over warm water during the\nremainder of the forecast period.  This should lead to strengthening\nand most of the intensity guidance brings Fernanda to major\nhurricane strength in 3 to 4 days.  The updated NHC forecast is\nslightly higher than the previous advisory and also shows Fernanda\nbecoming a major hurricane.  It should be noted that the SHIPS\nRapid Intensity Index shows a 50 percent chance of a 65 kt increase\nin intensity over the next 3 days.\n\nFernanda is moving westward to west-southwestward at about 8 kt.  A\ndeep layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to build\nwestward during the next few days which should keep Fernanda on a\nwest or slightly south-of-west heading.  After 72 h, the tropical\ncyclone is forecast to turn west-northwestward as it nears the\nwestern portion of the ridge.  The track guidance is in good\nagreement through 72 hours, but there are some differences in the\nforward speed of the cyclone and how much latitude it will gain\nlater in the period.  The NHC track is similar to the previous\nadvisory and lies along the southern edge of the guidance envelope\nat days 4 and 5. This is in best agreement with the ECMWF and\nthe HFIP corrected consensus models.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0300Z 11.9N 113.1W   40 KT  45 MPH\n 12H  13/1200Z 11.9N 114.5W   50 KT  60 MPH\n 24H  14/0000Z 11.7N 116.5W   60 KT  70 MPH\n 36H  14/1200Z 11.5N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 48H  15/0000Z 11.4N 120.6W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 72H  16/0000Z 11.7N 125.1W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 96H  17/0000Z 12.5N 129.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n120H  18/0000Z 13.5N 133.5W  100 KT 115 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Brown\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":6,"Date":"2017-07-13 09:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number   6\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n300 AM MDT Thu Jul 13 2017\n\nFixes off of recent ASCAT data indicate that Fernanda's center is\nnow fully embedded beneath the convective canopy, and cloud tops\nare as cold as -85 deg C.  The improved structure is translating\ninto stronger surface winds, with the ASCAT passes showing that the\ninitial intensity is now 45 kt.\n\nThe ASCAT data showed that Fernanda's center is moving south of due\nwest, and the motion estimate is 265/9 kt.  Deep-layer ridging to\nthe north of the cyclone is expected to strengthen and build\nwestward, which should keep Fernanda on a west to south-of-due-west\ntrajectory for the next 3 days.  The ridge then narrows and weakens\na bit on days 4 and 5, which should allow Fernanda to gradually gain\nsome latitude by the end of the forecast period.  The recent trend\nof the track guidance shifting south has continued, and the updated\nNHC track forecast has therefore been shifted south of the previous\nforecast during the first 48 hours.  After that time, the models are\nthen suggesting that Fernanda's track may take a more pronounced\npoleward bend, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little\nnortheast of the previous forecast on days 4 and 5.\n\nNortheasterly shear affecting Fernanda has weakened as expected,\nand it's now analyzed to be about 10 kt.  The shear is forecast to\ndiminish further, and it should generally be below 10 kt for the\nremainder of the forecast period.  In addition, Fernanda is\ncurrently moving over a warm pool where sea surface temperatures\nare about 29 deg C.  This low-shear, high-SST environment should\nspark a significant intensification trend in the coming days.\nHCCA, the Florida State Superensemble (FSSE), and the COAMPS-TC\nmodel are all quite aggressive, showing Fernanda becoming a major\nhurricane just after 48 hours and continuing to strengthen through\ndays 3 and 4.  This scenario is supported by the SHIPS RI guidance,\nwhich gives a 50/50 chance of Fernanda reaching major hurricane\nstrength in 48 hours.  Based on these models, the NHC intensity\nforecast has been bumped upward, and it generally lies near a blend\nof HCCA, FSSE, and the ICON intensity consensus.\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/0900Z 11.7N 114.1W   45 KT  50 MPH\n 12H  13/1800Z 11.5N 115.5W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 24H  14/0600Z 11.2N 117.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 36H  14/1800Z 10.9N 119.3W   80 KT  90 MPH\n 48H  15/0600Z 10.9N 121.4W   95 KT 110 MPH\n 72H  16/0600Z 11.6N 125.9W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 96H  17/0600Z 12.8N 130.2W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  18/0600Z 14.0N 134.0W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Berg\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Tropical Storm","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":7,"Date":"2017-07-13 15:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nTropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number   7\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n800 AM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017\n\nRecent IR and WV images show that Fernanda has begun to establish\ngood outflow in all quadrants, indicating that the shear that\npreviously affected the tropical storm is diminishing. Recent SSMI\nand SSMIS passes from 1016 and 1130 UTC, respectively, show that\nthat convection is wrapping all the way around a mid-level center,\nbut the low-level center remains displaced a little to the\nnorth-northeast.  Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased\nto T 3.5 / 55kt, and the initial intensity has been increased to\nthat value.\n\nConfirming what the satellite data suggests, the analyzed shear has\ndecreased below 10 kt.  Warm SSTs and sufficient moisture are also\ncontributing to an environment that is very conducive for continued\nintensification.  The SHIPS-RII shows a greater than 50 percent\nchance of a 30 kt increase in 24 hours and a 45 kt increase in 48\nhours. This is a notable increase in the probabilities which have\ndoubled in the last 12 h.  Considering the convective structure\nof the cyclone has improved over the past few hours, and the lack of\nany obvious inhibiting environmental factors, rapid intensification\nwithin the next 24 or 36 hours seems likely.  The intensity forecast\nhas been substantially increased for the first 48 hours and now\nexplicitly shows an increase of 30 kt within 24 hours. Fernanda is\nforecast to be at or near major hurricane strength by tomorrow\nevening, with conditions favoring additional intensification after\nthat. Near the end of the forecast period, the hurricane is\nexpected to encounter decreasing sea surface temperatures that could\ncause slight weakening.  The intensity forecast is near the top of\nthe guidance envelope, close to the corrected consensus aids FSSE\nand HCCA.\n\nNo major changes have been made to the track forecast. The\ninitial motion estimate remains 265/9 kt.  A deep-layer ridge\nextending over a large portion of the eastern north Pacific will\nsteer Fernanda generally westward for the next 2-3 days.  Most of\nthe dynamical guidance still shows a slight weakening of the ridge\nafter about 3 days which would cause Fernanda to turn toward the\nnorthwest.  The NHC forecast is very close to to the track\nconsensus TVCN and is nearly on top of the previous forecast.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/1500Z 11.7N 115.0W   55 KT  65 MPH\n 12H  14/0000Z 11.5N 116.4W   65 KT  75 MPH\n 24H  14/1200Z 11.2N 118.3W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 36H  15/0000Z 11.0N 120.3W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 48H  15/1200Z 11.2N 122.4W  110 KT 125 MPH\n 72H  16/1200Z 12.0N 126.9W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 96H  17/1200Z 13.4N 131.0W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  18/1200Z 15.0N 135.5W  105 KT 120 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Zelinsky\n\nNNNN\n"}
{"Status":"Hurricane","Name":"Fernanda","Adv":8,"Date":"2017-07-13 21:00:00","Key":"EP062017","Contents":"\nZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL\nTTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM\n\nHurricane Fernanda Discussion Number   8\nNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062017\n200 PM PDT Thu Jul 13 2017\n\nFernanda is rapidly intensifying.  Satellite imagery indicates that\nthe central convection has become more symmetric, and there have\nbeen hints of an eye in visible imagery.  In addition, earlier\nmicrowave imagery showed at lease a partial ring of convection\naround the center.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity\nestimates range from 65-75 kt, so the initial intensity is\nincreased to a possibly conservative 70 kt.  Conservative or not,\nthis is a 35 kt increase from this time yesterday.\n\nThe initial motion is a little south of west or 260/10, with part\nof the southward component possibly due to some reformation of the\ncenter as the cyclone intensified.  During the next 48 h, a\ndeep-layer ridge to the north of Fernanda should steer the\nhurricane generally westward, and the new forecast is similar to\nthe previous forecast.  After that time, a large mid- to upper-level\ntrough over the central Pacific north of Hawaii should cause the\nridge to weaken, and the track guidance shows Fernanda turning\nwest-northwestward in response.  The guidance is forecasting a\ngreater northward component of motion from 72-120 h than on the\nprevious runs, and thus the latter part of the track forecast is\nnudged northward as well.  Overall, the new forecast lies close to\nthe various consensus models.\n\nWhile satellite imagery suggests that some shear continues to\naffect Fernanda, so far it has done little to slow the development.\nThe hurricane should remain over warm water and in a light shear\nenvironment for the next 72 h, and the SHIPS model Rapid\nIntensification Index shows better than a 50 percent chance of a\n35-kt increase in strength in the next 24 hours and a 45-kt\nincrease in 36 h.  Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for\n36 h more of rapid strengthening.  Given the lack of negative\nfactors, except for the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles,\nthe new intensity forecast could still be conservative even though\nit lies above the intensity guidance.  After 72 h, Fernanda should\nencounter decreasing sea surface temperatures and drier air, and\nthis is expected to cause a steady weakening.  The new intensity\nforecast is again increased considerably over the previous forecast\nduring the first 36 h, and it is decreased below for previous\nforecast at 120 h.\n\n\nFORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS\n\nINIT  13/2100Z 11.2N 116.0W   70 KT  80 MPH\n 12H  14/0600Z 11.1N 117.5W   85 KT 100 MPH\n 24H  14/1800Z 10.9N 119.4W  100 KT 115 MPH\n 36H  15/0600Z 10.9N 121.3W  115 KT 130 MPH\n 48H  15/1800Z 11.3N 123.5W  120 KT 140 MPH\n 72H  16/1800Z 12.5N 128.0W  125 KT 145 MPH\n 96H  17/1800Z 14.0N 132.5W  115 KT 130 MPH\n120H  18/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W   95 KT 110 MPH\n\n$$\nForecaster Beven\n\nNNNN\n"}